Fed Expects to Keep Its Key Rate Near Zero Through 2023 -(AP) — The Federal Reserve foresees the economy accelerating quickly this year yet still expects to keep its benchmark interest rate pinned near zero through 2023, despite concerns in financial markets about potentially higher inflation. With its brightening outlook, the Fed on Wednesday significantly upgraded its forecasts for growth and inflation. It now expects the economy to expand 6.5% this year, up sharply from its previous projection in December of 4.2%. And the Fed raised its forecast for inflation by the end of this year from 1.8% to 2.4% after years of chronically low price increases. The Fed also said it would continue its monthly purchases of $120 billion in bonds, which are intended to keep longer-term borrowing costs low. On Wall Street, investors registered their approval of the Fed's low-rate message, sending stock indexes higher. And the closely watched yield on the 10-year Treasury note, which has surged in recent weeks on inflation concerns, declined slightly. Still, the Fed's upgraded forecasts raised questions about what would cause it eventually to raise its key short-term rate, which affects many consumer and business loans. As the economy strengthens, the policymakers think the unemployment rate will drop faster than they thought in December: They foresee unemployment falling from its current 6.2% to 4.5% by year's end and to 3.9%, near a healthy level, at the end of 2022. That suggests that the central bank will be close to meeting its goals by 2023, when it expects inflation to exceed its 2% target level and for unemployment to be at 3.5%, which is where it was before the pandemic struck. Yet it still doesn't project a rate hike then. At a news conference after the Fed's latest policy meeting, Chair Jerome Powell stressed that the central bank wants to see substantial improvement in the job market and economy and won't reverse its low-rate policies based solely on forecasts. Last year, the Fed altered its policy framework to make clear that it would eventually raise rates only after annual inflation had exceeded its 2% target “for some time” — and not just when higher inflation appeared likely.
FOMC Statement: No Change --Fed Chair Powell press conference video here.. FOMC Statement: (excerpt) The COVID-19 pandemic is causing tremendous Overall financial conditions remain accommodative, in part reflecting policy measures to support the economy and the flow of credit to U.S. households and businesses.The path of the economy will depend significantly on the course of the virus, including progress on vaccinations. The ongoing public health crisis continues to weigh on economic activity, employment, and inflation, and poses considerable risks to the economic outlook.The Committee expects to maintain an accommodative stance of monetary policy until these outcomes are achieved. The Committee decided to keep the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent and expects it will be appropriate to maintain this target range until labor market conditions have reached levels consistent with the Committee's assessments of maximum employment and inflation has risen to 2 percent and is on track to moderately exceed 2 percent for some time. In addition, the Federal Reserve will continue to increase its holdings of Treasury securities by at least $80 billion per month and of agency mortgage‑backed securities by at least $40 billion per month until substantial further progress has been made toward the Committee's maximum employment and price stability goals. These asset purchases help foster smooth market functioning and accommodative financial conditions, thereby supporting the flow of credit to households and businesses. In assessing the appropriate stance of monetary policy, the Committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook. The Committee would be prepared to adjust the stance of monetary policy as appropriate if risks emerge that could impede the attainment of the Committee's goals. The Committee's assessments will take into account a wide range of information, including readings on public health, labor market conditions, inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and financial and international developments.
FOMC Projections and Press Conference - Statement here. Fed Chair Powell press conference video here starting at 2:30 PM ET. Here are the projections. (see tables) Wall Street forecasts are for GDP to increase at a 6% to 8% annual rate in Q1. For the year, from Goldman Sachs "We have raised our GDP forecast to reflect the latest fiscal policy news and now expect 8% growth in 2021 (Q4/Q4) and an unemployment rate of 4% at end-2021" The FOMC also increased their GDP forecast to 5.8% to 6.6%. GDP for 2023 was revised down. GDP projections of Federal Reserve Governors and Reserve Bank presidents, Change in Real GDP: Projections of change in real GDP and inflation are from the fourth quarter of the previous year to the fourth quarter of the year indicated.The unemployment rate was at 6.2% in February.Note that the unemployment rate doesn't remotely capture the economic damage to the labor market. Not only are there 10 million people unemployed, but 4.2 million people have left the labor force since January 2020. And millions more are being supported by various provisions of the various disaster relief acts.The decline in the unemployment rate depends on both job growth, and the participation rate. A strong labor market will probably encourage people to return to the labor force, and the improvements in the unemployment rate might be slower than some expect. The unemployment rate was revised down for all years.Unemployment projections of Federal Reserve Governors and Reserve Bank presidents, Unemployment Rate2 Projections for the unemployment rate are for the average civilian unemployment rate in the fourth quarter of the year indicated.As of January 2020, PCE inflation was up 1.5% from January 2020.The projections for inflation were revised up and the FOMC sees inflation above target in 2021.Inflation projections of Federal Reserve Governors and Reserve Bank presidents, PCE Inflation1. PCE core inflation was up 1.5% in January year-over-year. Projections for core inflation were revised up.
Dollar falters as Fed dashes early U.S. rate hike view (Reuters) - The U.S. dollar fell on Wednesday, after the Federal Reserve said it does not expect to raise interest rates through all of 2023, contrary to market expectations. The dollar index dropped 0.5% to 91.405 after the Fed comments. The greenback had reversed its slide in recent sessions on a surge in U.S. Treasury yields due in part to growing expectations that the Fed may tighten rates earlier than thought on forecasts of a faster-than-expected economic recovery. U.S. benchmark 10-year Treasury yields hit a 13-month high early in the session but was last at 1.647%. In a statement after the Fed held interest rates steady, the U.S. central bank said it expects a rapid jump in U.S. economic growth and inflation this year as the COVID-19 crisis winds down, and vowed to keep its target interest rate near zero for years to come. That was in contrast to what the eurodollar futures market suggested before the Fed statement, almost fully pricing in a rate hike by December 2022 and three increases in 2023. While the improvement in the Fed’s economic outlook did not immediately change policymakers’ expectations for interest rates, the weight of opinion did shift. Seven of 18 officials now expect to raise rates in 2023, compared to five in December. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, in a press conference, also said the U.S. central bank it’s not looking at dates to reduce its asset purchases just yet. Had Powell hinted at possibly tapering its bond buys, that would have caused a much sharper bond sell-off and a further spike in yields which would have pushed the dollar higher. “Bringing forward the median forecast for the first-rate hike into 2023 wouldn’t have fitted Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s narrative,” said ING in a research note. “Signalling an earlier move would have given more ammunition for the bond market to push yields significantly higher just when Powell has been indicating his concern that ‘disorderly conditions in markets or a persistent tightening in financial conditions that threatens the achievement of our goals’.”
Powell says central bank digital currency must coexist with cash -Potential central bank digital currencies would need to be integrated into existing payment systems alongside cash and other forms of money, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said. “A recent report from the Bank for International Settlements and a group of seven central banks, which includes the Fed, assessed the feasibility of CBDCs in helping central banks deliver their public policy objectives,” Powell said Thursday in prerecorded video remarks delivered to a payments conference in Basel, Switzerland. “Relevant to today’s topic, one of the three key principles highlighted in the report is that a CBDC needs to coexist with cash and other types of money in a flexible and innovative payment system,” Powell said. The Fed chair was delivering closing remarks to a conference hosted by the Committee on Payments and Market Infrastructures, a group of central bankers from around the world convened by the BIS. “The COVID crisis has brought into even sharper focus the need to address the limitations of our current arrangements for cross-border payments,” Powell said. “And as this conference amply demonstrates, despite the challenges of this last year, we still have been able to make important progress.”
The Long Term Damage of Economic Downturns - Chairman Powell, Secretary Yellen, and President Biden have recently spoken about the long term consequences for many of economic downturns. More should, more often. The Media should recognize how important this is; ask the question whenever it needs to be asked. The Congress should put this front and center in any and all discussions about economic policy.Why? Because millions of Americans never recovered from 1979-1980. Millions more never recovered from the 2001. More than from either of those never recovered from the recession of 2008. Who didn’t recover? Those who just gotten their first decent job, just taken out a mortgage, just gotten married and started a family, those who had just experienced a family medical emergency, … The types of folks that the likes of Mitch McConnell couldn’t be bothered to bring a bill to the floor for; those.As they say — say way too damned often — through no fault of their own. It usually isn’t. Almost never is. But it sure does keep them in their place and at hand just in case they might be needed by the economy at some point in the future and no one else is available; and they don’t fall so completely as to no longer be useful. For more on this, visit your local homeless encampment.Before, other, homelessness, the consequences often include, not in any particular order; bankruptcy, the broken family, divorce, … Seems, when you are knocked down, it’s hard to get back up. Hard enough the first time. Can’t all succeed, can we?Were you there in 1980 to see the family guy getting caught trying to steal the bag of groceries? When the Market called the cops and had him arrested? When all the engineers quietly lost their jobs, their careers, in 2001? As Hazel sang so eloquently “And they ain’t coming back.”They didn’t. And too many of them wound up divorced, working at the market, … doing anything but engineering, or whatever other career they might have had before.
Seven High Frequency Indicators for the Economy - These indicators are mostly for travel and entertainment. The TSA is providing daily travel numbers. This data shows the seven day average of daily total traveler throughput from the TSA for 2019 (Light Blue), 2020 (Blue) and 2021 (Red). The dashed line is the percent of 2019 for the seven day average. This data is as of March 14th. The seven day average is down 51.1% from the same week in 2019 (48.9% of last year). The second graph shows the 7 day average of the year-over-year change in diners as tabulated by OpenTable for the US and several selected cities. OpenTable notes: "we’ve updated the data including downloadable dataset from January 1, 2021 onward to compare seated diners from 2021 to 2019, as opposed to year over year." This data is updated through March 13, 2021. This data is "a sample of restaurants on the OpenTable network across all channels: online reservations, phone reservations, and walk-ins. For year-over-year comparisons by day, we compare to the same day of the week from the same week in the previous year." Dining picked up during the holidays, then slumped with the huge winter surge in cases. Dining is picking up again. This data shows domestic box office for each week and the median for the years 2016 through 2019 (dashed light blue). The data is from BoxOfficeMojo through Mar 11th. Movie ticket sales were at $21 million last week, down about 89% from the median for the week. This graph shows the seasonal pattern for the hotel occupancy rate using the four week average. Even when occupancy increases to 2009 levels, hotels will still be hurting. This data is through March 6th. Hotel occupancy is currently down 20.5% year-over-year (down 26.7% compared to same week in 2019). This graph, based on weekly data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), shows gasoline supplied compared to the same week of 2019. Blue is for 2020. Red is for 2021. As of March 5th, gasoline supplied was off about 4.5% (about 95.5% of the same week in 2019). Gasoline supplied will be up year-over-year soon, since at one point, gasoline supplied was off almost 50% YoY in 2020. This graph is from Apple mobility. From Apple: "This data is generated by counting the number of requests made to Apple Maps for directions in select countries/regions, sub-regions, and cities." This is just a general guide - people that regularly commute probably don't ask for directions. There is also some great data on mobility from the Dallas Fed Mobility and Engagement Index. This data is through March 11th for the United States and several selected cities. The graph is the running 7 day average to remove the impact of weekends. According to the Apple data directions requests, public transit in the 7 day average for the US is at 56% of the January 2020 level. It is at 50% in Chicago, and 59% in Houston (the dip was a weather related decline) - and moving up recently. Here is some interesting data on New York subway usage. This graph is from Todd W Schneider. This is weekly data since 2015. This data is through Friday, March 12th. Schneider has graphs for each borough, and links to all the data sources.
Q1 GDP Forecasts: Movin' on up! --Note that the forecasts of the automated systems (based on released data) are declining, whereas the forecasts of economists are increasing. From Merrrill Lynch: The net positive revisions to retail sales boosted our 1Q GDP tracking estimate up to 7.0%qoq saar from 5.5% previously. [Mar 19 estimate] From Goldman Sachs: [W]e boosted our Q1 GDP tracking estimate by 1.5pp to +7.5% (qoq ar) and lowered our Q2 GDP growth forecast by the same amount (to +9.5%). [Mar 16 estimate] From the NY Fed Nowcasting Report: The New York Fed Staff Nowcast stands at 6.3% for 2021:Q1 and 1.2% for 2021:Q2. [Mar 19 estimate] And from the Altanta Fed: GDPNow The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2021 is 5.7 percent on March 17, down from 5.9 percent on March 16. [Mar 17 estimate]59% of small businesses say health of economy is poor: U.S. Chamber of Commerce -- Tom Sullivan, VP of Small Business Policy at the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, joins Yahoo Finance’s Kristin Myers to breakdown the U.S. Chamber of Commerce small business report.
Michael Hudson and Paul Craig Roberts: It Is Time To Remove The Debt Barrier To Economic Growth --Out of habit, American economists worry about federal debt. But federal debt can be redeemed by the Federal Reserve printing the money with which to retire the bonds. The debt problem rests with individuals, companies, and state and local governments. They have no printing press. We have explained that the indebtedness of the population means there is little discretionary income with which to drive the economy. The offshoring of middle class jobs lowered incomes, and after paying debt service—mortgage interest, car payments, credit card interest, student loan debt—Americans’ pockets are empty. This situation has been worsened by Covid lockdowns. In the US the federal government has sent out a few Covid payments to help keep people’s heads above water as they face expenses without income. The financial press refers to these Covid checks as “fiscal stimulus,” but there is no stimulus. The Covid checks do not come close to replacing the missing wages, salaries and business profits from lockdowns.Corporations have indebted themselves and impaired their capitalization by borrowing money with which to repurchase their stock. This has built up their debt in the face of stagnant or declining consumer discretionary income. We propose to deal with the debt crisis by forgiving debts as was done in ancient times. Our basic premise is that debts that cannot be paid won’t be. Widespread foreclosures and evictions would further worsen the distribution of income and wealth and further contrain the ability of the economy to grow. Writing debt down to levels that can be serviced would clear the decks tor a real recovery. Income that would be siphoned off in debt service would instead be available to purchase new goods and services. A few economists muttered that we were overlooking the “moral hazzard” of absolving people of their debts. But leaving the economy stagnated in debt is also a moral hazzard. Policymakers did not endorse our proposal, but, in effect, policymakers adopted our policy. However, instead of forgiving the debt itself, they forgave payment of the debt service. Individuals and businesses who cannot pay their landlords or lenders cannot be evicted or foreclosed until June. This doesn’t hurt the lenders or banks, because the loans are not in default, and their balance sheet is not impaired. The banks add the unpaid payments to their assets, and their balance sheets remain sound. When June arrives, the prohibition against eviction and foreclosure will have to be extended as the accrued debt service cannot be paid. Extending the moratorium on foreclosures and evictions will just build up arrears. Is the implication a perpetual moratorium? The question is: If policymakers are willing to forgive debt service, why not just forgive the debt. The latter is neater and clears the decks for an economic renewal.
Janet Yellen’s Plunge Protection Team Has $142 Billion to Play With By Pam Martens - Most Americans are unaware of the existence of the Exchange Stabilization Fund (ESF). Together with the Federal Reserve Bank of New York (New York Fed) it has morphed into the U.S. Treasury Secretary’s Plunge Protection Team.The ESF was created in 1934 to provide support to the U.S. dollar during the Great Depression. As recently as March 31, 2007, the ESF was fairly modest in size, with assets of just $45.9 billion. Prior to Trump taking office, it had grown to $94.3 billion in assets. But thanks to a fancy maneuver by President Donald Trump’s Treasury Secretary, Steve Mnuchin, the ESF skyrocketed to a staggering balance of $682 billion as of September 30, 2020.Mnuchin was able to give himself this massive slush fund by helping to write the 2020 stimulus bill known as the CARES Act, which handed him $500 billion. The language in the bill said that Mnuchin was to provide $454 billion of the $500 billion to the Federal Reserve to create emergency lending facilities to support the economy during the pandemic. But all Mnuchin ever provided to the Fed was $114 billion. He kept the rest in the ESF. We know that because the Fed has confirmed to us that all it ever received was $114 billion and the Fed’s own financial statements also confirmed that. The official financial statements of the ESF confirmed that it received the full $500 billion from the CARES Act. In addition, this information was confirmed by the Congressional Research Service on December 17 of last year.The Exchange Stabilization Fund is governed by Section 5302 of Title 31 of the U.S. Code. It provides the U.S. Treasury Secretary with the following authorities:“Subject to approval by the President, the fund is under the exclusive control of the Secretary, and may not be used in a way that direct control and custody pass from the President and the Secretary. Decisions of the Secretary are final and may not be reviewed by another officer or employee of the Government.“…the Secretary or an agency designated by the Secretary, with the approval of the President, may deal in gold, foreign exchange, and other instruments of credit and securities the Secretary considers necessary.” Since stocks and bonds are “securities” in which the Treasury Secretary is allowed to intervene, Janet Yellen now sits atop her own Plunge Protection Team.Since a trading floor at the U.S. Treasury Department might raise some eyebrows, it’s all been handled quietly for years at the trading desk of the New York Fed – photos of which the New York Fed refused to provide to Wall Street On Parade. We obtained our own photo, shown above, from a Fed educational video that provided a brief glimpse of the trading floor.The statutory language above that reads “Decisions of the Secretary are final and may not be reviewed by another officer or employee of the Government,” would seem to prevent the Government Accountability Office from conducting an audit of the ESF or for the Treasury’s Inspector General to conduct an audit or investigation. Since members of Congress receive a paycheck from the government, thus making them government employees, the statute would even seem to bar Congress from prying open the doors to this secret trading vault.
The American Rescue Plan – GDP Impact Assessed by Menzie Chinn -- Goldman Sachs (Phillips/Briggs/Mericle, 3/13) document some aspects of the American Rescue Plan, signed into law by President Biden.. (see graphic) Goldman Sachs outlines their estimates of the fiscal impulse resulting from the ARP. (see graphic).Peak impact is estimated for 2021Q2, at a 7 percentage point higher level of GDP. This estimate is predicated upon multipliers of a certain size (note interestingly there is little debate over the idea of positive “multipliers”). CBO has made adjustments for social distancing in its previous projections of the CARES act; estimates of fiscal impact on GDP have to be conditioned on expectations regarding the extent of pandemic. GS is somewhat above the WSJ mean forecast, suggesting expectations of a higher package size and/or larger multipliers.Figure 3: GDP actual (bold black), WSJ March survey mean (blue), Christopher Thornberg/UC Riverside Business School (red), Alfred Romero/NC A&T State University (green), Jan Hatzius/Goldman Sachs (orange), CBO estimate of potential GDP (gray), all in billions Ch.2012$, on log scale. Forecasted levels calculated by cumulating growth rates to latest GDP level reported. Source: BEA (2020Q4 2nd release), WSJ surveys (various), CBO (February 2021), and author’s calculations. Interestingly, GS does not foresee a lot of overheating since their estimate of slack is greater than that implied by CBO’s estimate of potential. Graphic Source: Struyven, Hatzius, and Bhushan, “There Is More Slack Than They Think?” Goldman Sachs, February 16, 2021.
The American Rescue Plan clears a path to recovery for state and local governments and the communities they serve - EPI Blog -The passage of the American Rescue Plan (ARP) is a watershed moment for state and local governments. It is an opportunity to undo much of the damage caused by the COVID-19 pandemic and begin to address some of the long-standing inadequacies and inequities caused by decades of disinvestment in public services. Asour colleague Josh Bivens notes, the bill’s $350 billion in aid to state and local governments will critically help many localities fill in for revenue losses, stem budget cuts, and respond—with important flexibility over the next few years—to massively increased fiscal demands caused by the pandemic. Although revenue losses in some states were not as dire as predicted early in the pandemic, state and local governments across the country have, nevertheless, already made massive cuts to their budgets and staffs. These cuts have serious implications for the health of local economies and the quality of life in those communities. In this piece, we document the losses that have already occurred in state and local government workforces and take a closer look at who these workers are and what they do. We also discuss the opportunity that policymakers now have to truly “build back better” and what that could mean for communities throughout the country that were struggling long before the coronavirus appeared. In particular, we show that:
- State and local job cuts during the COVID-19 pandemic have been unprecedented and widespread.
- Most state and local government employees work in education (50.4%). This workforce also provides public services that keep communities healthy and safe.
- Women and Black workers are disproportionately represented in state and local government jobs. Women make up 59.6% of this workforce, compared with 46.6% of the private sector. Black women account for 8.7% of state and local government workers, compared with 6.4% of private-sector workers.
- The American Rescue Plan provides an opportunity for state and local governments to work toward addressing racial inequities and expanding public supports in their communities.
Who Exactly Was Rescued? $1 Trillion In Non-COVID-Related "Stimulus" & "Relief" Certainly, the $1.9 trillion American Rescue Plan Act of 2021, provided some targeted COVID aid:$473 billion in payments to individuals, $75 billion in cash for vaccines, $26 billion to restaurants, $15 billion to help fund airline payrolls, and another $7.2 billion in Paycheck Protection Program funding for small businesses.The bill also contained about $1 trillion in non-COVID related spending, pork, and policy changes.For example, the original bill included a hike in the minimum wage to $15 per hour. Even the non-partisan Congressional Budget Office (CBO) determined that move would cost the U.S. economy $1.4 million jobs.A quick spotlight on agencies and entities receiving “coronavirus recovery” money in the bill includes:
- $350 billion to bailout the states and the District of Columbia. The allocation formula uses the unemployment rate in the fourth quarter of 2020. Therefore, states like New York and California –who had strict economic lockdown policies and high unemployment– will get bailout money. States like Florida and South Dakota – who were open for business – will get less.
- $128.5 billion to fund K-12 education. The CBO determined that most of the money in education will bedistributed in 2022 through 2028, when the pandemic is over.
- $86 billion to save nearly 200 pension plans insured by the Pension Benefit Guaranty Corp. There are no reforms mandated while these badly managed pensions are bailed-out. Many of these pension plans are co-managedby unions.
- $50 billion goes to the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA). A portion of these funds is earmarked to reimburse up to $7,000 for funeral and burial costs related to Covid-19 deaths.
- $39.6 billion to higher education. This amount is three times the money – $12.5 billion – that higher ed received from the massive CARES Act last year.
- $1.5 billion for Amtrak – the National Railroad Passenger Corporation. In FY2020, Congress appropriated $3 billion for Amtrak ($2 billion in annual appropriations, plus an additional $1 billion in the CARES Act COVID relief bill). In the three years before the pandemic, AMTRAK lost $392 million – even after a $5 billion taxpayer subsidy (FY2017-FY2019).
Then there is the money for arts, libraries, and museums.Our auditors found that $470 million in the bill doubles the budgets of The Institute of Museum and Library Services and the National Endowment of the Arts and the Humanities:$200 million in the bill to The Institute of Museum and Library Services (FY2019 budget: $230 million). This agency is so small that it does not even employ an inspector general. $270 million funds the National Endowment of the Arts and the Humanities (FY2019 budget: $253 million) – In 2017, our study showed eighty-percent of all non-profit grant making flowed to well-heeled organizations with over $1 million in assets.If additional COVID relief was needed for testing, vaccines, small businesses, and individuals, then a narrow, targeted, “skinny” bill would have answered the real need.
Biden Stimulus Plan Shores Up Weakest Multi-Employer Pension Plans Rather than Taking on Private Equity Abuses -Yves here. I don’t mean to be hard on Tom Conway, the international president of the United Steelworkers Union. The Democrats have taken organized labor for granted for so long that the gestures made by Biden so far, that of speaking out in favor of interference-free union elections, meaning scolding Amazon, and now shoring up a private pension guarantee fund, must seem like a sea change from the posture of the Democrats under Clinton and Obama. Hence it makes sense for Conway to applaud Biden moving in a better direction. However, his headline, The American Rescue Plan is for Real, is out over its skis.To switch metaphors, just as one robin does not make a spring, so to do are one-off measures not sufficient to change economic and power relationships. Yet the Biden Administration, like the Obama Administration, is committed to preserving the status quo, but is willing to spend bigger to do so.Despite the sweeping headline, the post is entirely about the partial rescues of really sick multi-employer pension plans, yet doesn’t explain clearly what the program is or how it works. Note that there are roughly 1,400 multi-employer plans and about 10% are in bad shape.I had assumed the funds were going to the Pension Benefit Guaranty Corporation, which backstops these plans but its multi-employer program is projected to run out of money by 2026 or 2027. Instead, as CNBC explained, the $86 billion set aside for these troubled pension schemes will be for grants that go directly to the funds themselves, as opposed to the PBGC. From CNBC: The American Rescue Plan, which now heads to the House, would let certain pensions apply for federal grant funding, which would be used to help pay retirement benefits to workers…. However, 124 multi-employer pensions are in “critical and declining” status, according to the Pension Benefit Guaranty Corporation. They’re projected to have insufficient funds to pay full retirement benefits within the next 20 years. About 1 million workers are in such plans, according to the American Academy of Actuaries… Grants offered by the American Rescue Plan would cover full pension benefits for workers in ailing plans over the next three decades. The relief measure would also reinstate any benefits that had been suspended for recipients. This $86 billion rescue will cover over a million workers. For a reference point, CalPERS has about $440 billion for its 1.9 million members and even on its best recent day is only 70% funded. Regardless, Conway fails to mention that a reason so many private pensions have gotten in trouble is the tender ministrations of private equity firms, although the Supreme Court is about to hear an appeal of a 2012 case, decided in favor of Sun Capital, which had upheld Sun walking away from the pension liabilities of a company it bankrupted. Having Congress require investors to make good on the pension funds of the companies they wreck would considerably reduce how many pension funds get hopelessly under water.
Biden begins tour to promote his stimulus package - President Joe Biden kicked off his “Help is Here” tour on Tuesday with a visit to a small business in Delaware County, Pennsylvania, outside of Philadelphia. Biden and other leading figures in his administration are touring the country to promote the recent passage of the $1.9 trillion “American Recovery Act.” The Biden administration has paid a significant amount of attention to the impact of the pandemic on small businesses. It estimates that approximately 400,000 small businesses have closed, with millions more struggling to survive. Biden’s relief package includes a $28 billion grant program to support restaurants and drinking establishments, in addition to $15 billion in flexible grants that can be allocated. Biden is advancing a racialist narrative as a key part of the promotion of his “American Rescue Plan.” He is particularly focusing on minority business owners. On Tuesday, he visited Smith Flooring Inc. in Chester, Pennsylvania, a black-owned business that supplies and installs flooring. In essentially restating Richard Nixon’s program of “black capitalism,” Biden is seeking to consolidate support within affluent sections of the African-American population and other minority groups. The Philadelphia Inquirer reported that Biden spoke briefly, mostly promoting his administration’s vaccine program. As part of his pledge to administer 100 million vaccinations within this first 100 days, Biden said he was working to distribute vaccines to pharmacies, community centers and schools in order to better reach minority communities. “People hardest hit are in minority communities,” Biden said. “The rate at which they get COVID is higher, death rate is higher.” Biden told Smith Flooring owners Kristin and James Smith that “more help is on the way.” He added that small businesses would see more relief than was available in the first relief package enacted last spring. Tuesday marked the beginning of a travel blitz across the country. First Lady Jill Biden visited an elementary school in Burlington County, New Jersey on Monday, while Vice President Kamala Harris and her husband were in Nevada. President Biden and Harris will travel to Atlanta, Georgia later this week.
Bill to extend PPP clears House - The House approved a two-month extension of a popular U.S. small-business rescue program that still has almost $93 billion left to distribute, giving companies until the end of May to apply for the forgivable loans. The Paycheck Protection Program was initially set up a year ago as lockdowns stemming from the coronavirus paralyzed the American economy. Lawmakers expanded and extended it as the COVID-19 crisis continued. The House voted 415-3 on a bill extending the PPP for two months from its current expiration date of March 31. The Senate is expected to also approve it, with Majority Leader Chuck Schumer saying Tuesday Democrats “want it to pass as quickly as possible.” The Small Business Administration had approved nearly 7.6 million loans worth more than $687 billion as of March 7. About $92.5 billion remains to be lent. Firms can apply for PPP loans that can convert into grants if the owners spend the money on approved costs, such as worker salaries. Business groups and lenders had urged Congress to extend the deadline to give small businesses more time to apply for the money. Senate Small Business Committee Chairman Ben Cardin, a Maryland Democrat, said that the chamber would try to advance the extension bill with a fast-tracked procedure used for bipartisan, agreed-upon legislation, by seeking unanimous consent. A new round of PPP lending opened up in January after Congress approved more funding in December. Lawmakers then approved an additional $7.25 billion for the program in the latest $1.9 trillion stimulus bill that President Joe Biden signed into law earlier this month. The law also expanded eligibility for some nonprofit groups and online publishers. The latest round allows some businesses to apply for a second loan if they used up their first one, met requirements regarding number of employees and could demonstrate a decline in revenue. However, new forms and exclusive access periods for some small businesses meant that the rollout of the additional funding was slow and some applicants waited for weeks for their financing to be processed.
U.S. pandemic relief program mistakenly paid $692 million in duplicate loans: watchdog (Reuters) - The U.S. Small Business Administration (SBA) mistakenly paid out $692 million in duplicate small-business pandemic relief loans because of technical errors and other mistakes, the agency's internal watchdog said on Monday. Lenders participating in the Paycheck Protection Program (PPP) distributed the cash to 4,260 borrowers who had already received funds due to multiple technical glitches within the SBA's loan processing systems, which struggled to process the volumes of loans, the SBA Inspector General wrote in a report. Reuters first reported in June that technical snafus had led the SBA to approve thousands of duplicate loans potentially worth hundreds of millions of dollars. Under the program, lenders dish out government-backed loans to small businesses on behalf of the SBA. If borrowers use the funds for intended purposes like keeping staff employed, they keep the money and the government pays the lender back. The watchdog did not say how much if any of the $692 million mistakenly distributed by lenders had subsequently been reimbursed by the government. It initially said it would only guarantee one loan per borrower, meaning lenders, rather than the taxpayer, may be on the hook for the error. Reuters reported in June that lenders had been trying to retrieve duplicate loans from borrowers. In response to Monday's report, SBA officials said the agency would flag all suspected duplicates for further review, and expected to have the matter resolved by September. The watchdog added it did not see any evidence that borrowers intentionally exploited SBA systems to obtain multiple loans. Amid the frenzied launch of the first-come, first-served program last April, many borrowers applied with multiple borrowers to increase the odds of securing a loan. An SBA computer program meant to detect such duplicate applications failed, the watchdog said. In addition, the SBA system did not detect an application as a duplicate if the borrower's Social Security number and employee identification number were switched around on the second application.At one point, the number of approved duplicate PPP loans exceeded 40,000, but SBA officials were able to spot and resolve most of those before lenders disbursed the cash, the SBA Inspector General said.
One lucky borrower got 17 PPP loans: How the Trump administration lost millions in an effort to shore up small businesses — Computer errors caused the government to hand out duplicate loans to thousands of borrowers under the Trump administration’s program to rescue businesses from the economic ravages of the coronavirus pandemic.While the Paycheck Protection Program has been subject to fraud, the revelations contained in a new report by the inspector general of the Small Business Administration speak instead to a faulty — and costly — implementation.Aging federal technology may have hampered the SBA’s inability to track and cross-reference loans. Two years ago, the Government Accountability Office found that information systems across the federal government were badly outdated. Some computer hardware at the SBA was a decade old, that investigation found.A series of malfunctions took place in the spring and summer of 2020, resulting in millions of taxpayer dollars being handed out inadvertently as duplicate loans. In all, SBA Inspector General Mike Ware found, banks authorized to issue PPP loans “made more than one PPP disbursement to 4,260 borrowers, which totaled about $692 million and involved 8,731 PPP loans.”Businesses were allowed to apply for PPP loans with several banks; it was the SBA’s duty to make sure that if a borrower had an application before one bank, applications before any other banks were withdrawn. If the SBA did not alert a bank that one of its prospective borrowers had other outstanding applications, that borrower would have no barrier to securing several loans.At least 104 borrowers received three or more loans. One borrower received 17 loans from the federal government, for a total of $1.3 million. It was not clear who that 17-loan recipient was or how the borrower managed to secure so many loans when other prospective borrowers struggled to win a single award through the business-rescue program.An official with the SBA inspector general’s office declined to divulge information about that borrower, or whether the borrower was being i nvestigated by the agency. That official did confirm to Yahoo News that the 17 loans were not separate franchises of a large corporate chain, in which case the loans would have adhered to the program’s guidelines.
Calls grow from lawmakers for IRS to extend filing deadline -A group of more than 100 House members on Tuesday urged the IRS to extend the tax filing and payment deadlines — the latest effort from lawmakers to press the IRS to postpone the April 15 due date. "We respectfully urge you to extend the federal tax filing and payment deadline as Americans, and the IRS, continue to grapple with the disruptions caused by the COVID-19 pandemic," the lawmakers wrote in a letter sent Tuesday to IRS Commissioner Charles Rettig and Mark Mazur, Treasury's acting assistant secretary for tax policy. Reps. Jamie Raskin (D-Md.) and Bill Pascrell (D-N.J.) took the lead on the letter, which was primarily signed by Democrats. Pascrell serves as chairman of the House Ways and Means Subcommittee on Oversight, which is scheduled to hold a hearing with Rettig on Thursday. The IRS extended last year's filing and payment deadlines by three months because of the pandemic, but the agency has not yet taken similar action this year on a national level. Rettig said during a House Appropriations subcommittee hearing last month that extensions back up the IRS and create taxpayer confusion. The lawmakers said that an extension makes sense this year because people continue to face economic, logistical and health challenges due to the pandemic. They also said that taxpayers are still awaiting IRS guidance about tax changes created by recently enacted coronavirus relief legislation, and they noted that the IRS started this year's filing season later than usual. "Millions of stressed-out taxpayers, businesses and preparers would appreciate an extension of the deadline to file their 2020 tax returns," they wrote. The lawmakers' letter comes after Pascrell and Ways and Means Committee Chairman Richard Neal (D-Mass.) issued a statement last week calling for the filing season to be extended. The top Republican on the committee, Rep. Kevin Brady (R-Texas), said Friday that the IRS should "seriously consider" an extension.
IRS delays tax filing deadline to May 17 because of COVID-related changes - The IRS said Wednesday it is delaying the April 15 tax filing deadline to May 17 giving taxpayers more time to prepare their filings amid the slew of pandemic-related tax changes. The Treasury Department and the IRS said "the federal income tax filing due date for individuals for the 2020 tax year will be automatically extended from April 15, 2021, to May 17, 2021." This will happen automatically, and individuals don’t need to file any forms or contact the IRS, the agency said in a statement. "Individual taxpayers can also postpone federal income tax payments for the 2020 tax year due on April 15, 2021, to May 17, 2021, without penalties and interest, regardless of the amount owed," the IRS said. These changes don’t apply to state tax returns and payments, the IRS noted. The relief does not apply to estimated tax payments that are still due on April 15, 2021, the IRS said. "This continues to be a tough time for many people, and the IRS wants to continue to do everything possible to help taxpayers navigate the unusual circumstances related to the pandemic, while also working on important tax administration responsibilities," IRS Commissioner Chuck Rettig said in a news release. "Even with the new deadline, we urge taxpayers to consider filing as soon as possible, especially those who are owed refunds. Filing electronically with direct deposit is the quickest way to get refunds, and it can help some taxpayers more quickly receive any remaining stimulus payments they may be entitled to," he said.
Republicans Block Bill To Protect Stimulus Checks From Debt Collectors - Congress won’t block debt collectors from siphoning off stimulus checks anytime soon, after Sen. Pat Toomey (R-Pa.) objected Thursday to quickly approving a bill that would protect the $1,400 payments. Sens. Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio) and Ron Wyden (D-Ore.) asked the Senate for unanimous consent to disallow private debt collectors from taking a cut from the checks, which were part of the recent $1.9 trillion stimulus package. “If the Senate doesn’t pass this bill, predatory debt collectors will continue to seize relief payments for anything from credit card payments to medical debt,” Wyden said. Congress blocked debt collectors from seizing the $600 checks authorized by the December relief bill, but Democrats said the Senate parliamentarian disallowed similar protections to be used in the special budget process Democrats used to pass the American Rescue Plan with only 50 votes earlier this month. Toomey said it was Democrats’ fault that the bill lacked the protections, since they should have compromised with Republicans and passed a spending bill that could have gotten 60 votes in the Senate. Toomey also said debt collectors are merely pursuing “valid legal claims” against people who “owe money to someone else and that someone else has gone to court, and it’s been adjudicated.” The bill Toomey blocked would have prevented garnishments by telling the IRS to issue deposits with a signal to banks that they should not honor court orders to hand the money over. It may be too late for most people anyway, as the Treasury Department announced earlier this week that 90 million payments had already been sent. “These payments have already gone out the door,” Toomey said. “The garnishment happens automatically. It’s already happened!” It’s not clear if Democratic leaders want to bother with running the Brown-Wyden bill through the cloture process, which can take several days.
50 House Democrats urge Biden to 'significantly' slash defense budget - A group of 50 House Democrats is urging President Biden to “significantly” slash the more than $700 billion Pentagon budget. “While we are heartened that your administration is not contemplating expanding the Pentagon’s already inflated budget, our new Democratic majorities in Congress along with your administration should go further,” the lawmakers wrote Tuesday in a letter to Biden. “Rather than requesting a flat Pentagon budget, we urge you to seek a significantly reduced Pentagon topline.” The letter was organized by former Progressive Caucus chairs Reps. Barbara Lee (D-Calif.) and Mark Pocan (D-Wis.), as well as Rep. Jake Auchincloss (D-Mass.), and co-signed by a cadre of other prominent progressives. The letter follows reports that Pentagon officials are crafting a $704 billion to $708 billion fiscal 2022 budget request that is essentially flat compared to this year’s Defense Department budget. Any effort to slash the defense budget is likely to face strong political headwinds. Republicans have been pushing Biden to boost the defense budget by 3 to 5 percent, the amount of annual growth officials early in the Trump administration said was needed to properly fund the National Defense Strategy. The strategy seeks to reorient the U.S. military toward competition with Russia and China after decades of focusing on counterterrorism. With a slim Democratic majority in the House and 50-50 party split in the Senate, Democrats are expected to need Republican votes to pass a defense budget. Top Democrats, including the chairmen of the House and Senate Armed Services committees, have also rejected across-the-board defense cuts, saying the budget needs to match a strategy and that they’re expecting a relatively flat budget request from the Biden administration.
North Korea Issues First Threat Toward Biden Administration Through Kim's Powerful Sister -North Korea has issued its first statement directed toward the Biden administration which is being widely reported as in reality a "threat". It comes as a high level US delegation is in the region to focus on China strategy, which includes talks with US allies regarding denuclearizing the Korean peninsula. The powerful sister of Kim Jong Un, Kim Yo Jong, warned the United States it must "refrain from causing a stink" if it desires to "sleep in peace" over the next four years."We take this opportunity to warn the new U.S. administration trying hard to give off gun powder smell in our land," she said. "If it wants to sleep in peace for coming four years, it had better refrain from causing a stink at its first step," she added.Kim Yo Jong's ominous words of warning appeared prompted by US Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin touching down in Asia early this week to hold key security talks with South Korea and Japan. The top officials traveled to Tokyo first and are due in Seoul by Wednesday. The pair issued a statement aimed at Pyongyang from Tokyo on Tuesday, underscoring the US is working with regional partners toward the "complete denuclearization of North Korea".
China challenges Biden team on state of US democracy -China questioned the state of U.S. democracy in the first face-to-face meeting between Chinese officials and the Biden administration, signaling Beijing's intention of using former President Trump's attacks on the 2020 election for its own interests. Foreign affairs director of the Chinese Communist Party Yang Jiechi in his first remarks with U.S. officials at a meeting in Alaska said the U.S. is in no place to preach democracy to other countries. "Many people within the United States actually have little confidence in the democracy of the United States ... we believe that it is important for the United States to change its own image and to stop advancing its own democracy in the rest of the world,” Yang said. The Chinese official also raised the problem of race in the United States, taking a hard line with the Biden officials. The remarks indicate the baseless attacks on the 2020 election by Trump and his allies, which culminated in a mob attack by Trump supporters on the Capitol that interfered with the certification of the Electoral College count and led to five deaths, will be used by China in diplomatic talks. The remarks prompted a rebuke by Secretary of State Antony Blinken. “What we’ve done throughout our history is to confront those challenges openly, publicly, transparently, not trying to ignore them, not trying to pretend they don’t exist, not trying to sweep them under a rug," he said. "And sometimes it’s painful, sometimes it’s ugly, but each and every time, we have come out stronger, better, more united as a country.”
Bill Maher Admits US Has Lost To China Because Of "Wokeism" & "Culture Wars" --Bill Maher stands against his leftist colleagues in a rant on his HBO show calling Americans a “silly people” that are losing the battle for the 21st Century. He uses the famous line from Lawrence of Arabia to prove the point thatAmericans – intent on “staying a bunch of squabbling tribes” – will “remain a silly people.” Maher said, “Do you know who doesn’t care that there is a stereotype of a Chinese man in a Dr. Seuss book? China.” The HBO host said that “all 1.4 billion [Chinese] could give a crouching tiger flying f**k because they are not a silly people.” He said that Chinese people wouldn’t care about this because they are “serious as a prison fight.”The host said that China “does bad stuff” as he lightly touches on the horrific human rights abuses happening the China’s Uyghur population, saying, “they put Uyghurs in camps and punish dissent.” Maher said that Americans “don’t want to be [China], but there’s gotta be something between an authoritarian government – that tells everyone what to do – and a representative government that can’t do anything at all.” His ultra-liberal crowd is sticking with him still at this point, wildly clapping for the “crouching tiger” comment and his views on our ineffective government. Maher claims that Americans are widely ignoring China’s dominance in 5G, pharmaceuticals, infrastructure. “Half the country is having a never-ending “woke” competition deciding [what gender Mr. Potato Head will be] and the other half believes we have to stop the lizard people because they’re eating babies. We are a silly people,” retorts Maher.
Nomi Prins: To Build or Not to Build? The Infrastructure Question - Since the mid-twentieth century, when most of this country’s modern infrastructure systems were first established, the population has doubled. Not only are American roads, airports, electric grids, waterways, railways and more distinctly outdated, but today’s crucial telecommunications sector hasn’t ever been subjected to a comprehensive broadband strategy.Worse yet, what’s known as America’s “infrastructure gap” only continues to widen. The cost of what we need but haven’t done to modernize our infrastructure has expanded to $5.6 trillion over the last 20 years ($3 trillion in the last decade alone), according to a report by the American Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE). Some estimates now even run as high as $7 trillion.In other words, as old infrastructure deteriorates and new infrastructure and technology are needed, the cost of addressing this ongoing problem only escalates. Currently, there is a $1-trillion backlog of (yet unapproved) deferred-maintenance funding floating around Capitol Hill. Without action in the reasonable future, certain kinds of American infrastructure could, like that Texas energy grid, soon be deemed unsafe.Now, it’s true that the U.S. continues to battle Covid-19 with more than half a million lives already lost and significant parts of the economy struggling to make ends meet. Even before the pandemic, however, America’s failing infrastructure system was already costing the average household nearly $3,300 a year.According to ASCE, “The nation’s economy could see the loss of $10 trillion in GDP [gross domestic product] and a decline of more than $23 trillion in business productivity cumulatively over the next two decades if current investment trends continue.” Whatever a post-pandemic economy looks like, our country is already starved for policies that offer safe, reliable, efficient, and sustainable future infrastructure systems. Such a down payment on our future is crucial not just for us, but for generations to come.As early as 2016, ASCE researchers found that the overall number of dams with potential high-hazard status had already climbed to nearly 15,500. At the time, the organization also discoveredthat nearly four out of every 10 bridges in America were 50 years old or more and identified 56,007 of them as already structurally deficient. Those numbers would obviously be even higher today.And yet, in 2021, what Americans face is hardly just a transportation crisis. The country’s energysystem largely predates the twenty-first century. The majority of American electric transmission and distribution systems were established in the 1950s and 1960s with only a 50-year life cycle.ASCE reports that, “More than 640,000 miles of high-voltage transmission lines in the lower 48 states’ power grids are at full capacity.” That means our systems weren’t and aren’t equipped to handle excess needs — especially in emergencies.The country is critically overdue for infrastructure development in which the government and the private sector would collaborate with intention and urgency. Infrastructure could be the great equalizer in our economy, if only the Biden administration and a now-dogmatically partisan Congress had the fortitude and foresight to make it happen.
JPM Explains Why It's Unlikely The Infrastructure Bill Becomes Law (But Filibuster Changes Everything) -As we wait for tomorrow's main event - the Fed - investors are taking a deep dive at infrastructure (discussed here and here) and taxes (here). Full details on both have yet to be revealed but below JPMorgan has done a quick recap on the tax plan, details of which were published in BBG.
- Raising the corporate tax rate to 28% from 21%
- Paring back tax preferences for so-called pass-through businesses, such as limited-liability companies or partnerships
- Raising the income tax rate on individuals earning more than $400,000
- Expanding the estate tax’s reach
- A higher capital-gains tax rate for individuals earning at least $1 million annually.(Biden on the campaign trail proposed applying income-tax rates, which would behigher)
- Elizabeth Warren’s “Ultra-Millionaire” Tax (WSJ): The legislation would create a 2%annual tax on the net worth of households and trusts between $50 million and $1billion and an additional 1% surtax on those above $1 billion.
JPMorgan's economists have put together their assessment of the proposed plans with one critical provision: the assumption that Democrats do not remove the filibuster, which would lower the vote threshold from 60 to 50 to pass bills.The first hurdle is identifying whether the infrastructure bill could pass in a bi-partisan fashion. If yes, then there are limits to what the GOP would accepts on taxes to the fund the bill. The GOP would push back most aggressively on
- (i) capital gains tax change,
- (ii) additional tax on $400k+ in income; and
- (iii) the ultra-millionaire tax.
Though, it is possible the ultra-millionaire tax would fail to be upheld during legal challenges as the way it is stated in the WSJ article suggests a federal tax on real estate/property; this is generally thought to be outside the purview of the federal government. The easiest pathway may be a raising corporate taxes to 28% and a return to Obama-era individual taxes without adding a >$400k provision.If Democrats choose to pursue infrastructure via Reconciliation, then the question becomes how Progressive Manchin and Sinema will vote. While both Senators are concerned about the deficit/total debt levels of the government, it may be easier to win their support with a smaller infrastructure package than with a larger tax proposal. Further, Manchin said that he would not support infrastructure that does not have bi-partisan support, which the proposed bill is unlikely to have. If, in order to pass infra, we need (i) bi-partisan support, (ii) increased taxes to offset, and (iii) this is to be done without removing the filibuster, what can actually be passed?
McConnell offers scathing 'scorched earth' filibuster warning --Senate GOP Leader Mitch McConnell (Ky.) offered a scathing warning to Democrats on Tuesday, amid growing pressure to nix the legislative filibuster. “Let me say this very clearly for all 99 of my colleagues: Nobody serving in this chamber can even begin, can even begin, to imagine what a completely scorched-earth Senate would look like,” McConnell said. He added that in a chamber that functions on a day-to-day basis by consent, meaning all senators sign off on an action, "I want our colleagues to imagine a world where every single task, every one of them, requires a physical quorum." McConnell's remarks come a day after Sen. Dick Durbin (Ill.), the No. 2 Senate Democrat, offered a scorching rebuke of the 60-vote legislative filibuster, comparing it to a "weapon of mass destruction" that was holding the Senate "hostage." Nixing the legislative filibuster or reverting it back to a "talking filibuster" — which would force senators to physically be on the floor — has momentum both with outside groups and Democratic senators. But Senate Majority Leader Charles Schumer (D-N.Y.) hasn't tipped his hand on if he supports it and Democrats don't currently have the votes to invoke the "nuclear option" to get rid of the filibuster on a party-line vote. Sens. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) and Kyrsten Sinema (D-Ariz.) are both on the record opposing it and others are viewed as wary. But supporters of invoking the rules change argue that with the 60-vote legislative filibuster in place many of President Biden's big campaign promises are dead on arrival in the Senate because they need the support of 10 GOP senators. McConnell warned that nixing the filibuster wouldn't result in a "fast-track" for Biden's agenda but instead would spark more gridlock with Republicans vowing to cause big headaches for Democrats on even the most mundane Senate tasks. “So this is not a trade-off between trampling etiquette but then getting to quickly transform the country. That’s a false choice. Even the most basic aspects of our colleagues’ agenda, the most mundane task of the Biden presidency, would actually be harder not easier," McConnell said. "This chaos would not open up an express lane to liberal change. It would not open up an express lane for the Biden presidency to speed into the history books. The Senate would be more like a 100-car pile up, nothing moving," he added.
Sanders signals he expects to use reconciliation for infrastructure -Senate Budget Committee Chairman Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) said Tuesday that he wants to use a fast-track process for infrastructure, appearing skeptical that the package could get enough GOP support to defeat a filibuster. "What I have seen this year and in past years is that if we want to do something significant, it is very hard to get Republican support," Sanders said. "So the devil is of course in the details. If Republicans are prepared to support a significant and important piece of legislation that deals with climate change, deals with infrastructure, that's great. My own feeling is at this point I doubt that that will be the case," Sanders added. Sanders said that it was too early to discuss one of the thorniest issues of the looming infrastructure debate, how to pay for it. But asked if he was intending to do reconciliation on an infrastructure package, he added: "Yes." Sanders as Budget Committee chairman is responsible for drafting the resolution that would include instructions for writing an infrastructure package under reconciliation — the budget process that would let Democrats bypass the 60-vote legislative filibuster. Democrats are leaving the door open to making the infrastructure package bipartisan, and there's some pushback from centrists such as Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) for using reconciliation without a concerted effort to craft a bill that could get 60 votes.
Biden administration continues to jail record number of immigrant children - The number of immigrant children detained by the Biden administration continues to grow as two officials from the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) announced on Monday plans to hold thousands of teenage boys at a convention center in downtown Dallas. A DHS document obtained by NPR revealed that 4,276 unaccompanied migrant children were being held by the government. The average stay in a camp was 117 hours, far longer than the maximum 72 hours allowed under the law. Another temporary camp in Midland, Texas, originally for oilfield workers, will be opened to jail migrants. Even a former NASA site, Moffett Federal Airfield in Mountain View, California, is being considered by the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) as another immigrant detention center. The opening of these new facilities occurs as an influx of refugees and immigrants, many of them unaccompanied children fleeing poverty and violence in Central America, arrive at the US-Mexico border. An estimated 9,400 unaccompanied minors arrived along the border in February, three times the number from last year. Despite being elected in no small part due to the universal revulsion with the Trump administration’s inhumane and xenophobic immigration policies, President Joe Biden is continuing and in fact, expanding the war on immigrants and refugees. The Biden administration is now pushing all adult immigrants, including those with children, back to Mexico on the grounds that they pose a health risk due to the coronavirus. Using the Title 42 provision, immigrants are being denied the right to asylum and the right to a hearing before their deportation. Some 70 percent of the 100,000 immigrants arrested at the border in February were sent back across the border this way. Thousands, including families and unaccompanied children, now languish in squalid camps in Mexico at risk of COVID-19 and other diseases as well as predatory gangs. Children who are “lucky” enough to been penned into an American immigrant camp are now telling court-appointed lawyers that they have not been outside for days and are confined in overcrowded tents. One such camp in Donna, Texas, was only meant to temporarily house 250 people, but now has 1,000 children and teenagers, some as young as one year old. According to lawyers who were allowed to interview just 20 children protected by court settlements, the Border Patrol is holding 40 children to a room in white tents cordoned off by clear, plastic sheets. The 1997 Flores settlement mandates that such inspections be allowed to take place. The children told lawyers how there were not enough mats to sleep on, forcing some to sleep on the ground or a metal bench. Some were forced to stay in their crowded room for the entirety of their stay. The lawyers were not allowed by the Justice Department to go directly to the facility but instead were brought to a portable unit with the 20 children inside.
Cornyn, Cruz to lead Senate delegation to border next week -Sens. John Cornyn (R-Texas) and Ted Cruz (R-Texas) plan to lead a Senate delegation to the U.S.-Mexico border next week amid an influx of migrants that is creating a real-world and political crisis for the Biden administration. The Texas senators issued a media advisory that they will lead a group of lawmakers to the Rio Grande Valley Area on March 26 to hold a tour of the border and a roundtable with local stakeholders. The tour comes as a surge of migrants and unaccompanied children flock to the border seeking entry to the U.S. as both parties call the situation a “humanitarian crisis.” Reports this week found that 4,200 children are being held in Customs and Border Protection cells designated for adults, a jump of 1,000 from the previous week. Some children are spending an average 117 hours in these facilities despite a 72-hour legal limit. Republicans have amplified attacks on Biden’s immigration policy amid the surge, with House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) leading a delegation of 12 members on a tour of the border in El Paso, Texas, on Monday. McCarthy, in remarks during the tour, attributed the rise in migrants at the border to the Biden administration’s reversal of former President Trump’s immigration policies and progress on a border wall. He called on Biden to visit the border as he travels the U.S. to tout the recently passed COVID-19 relief package. Biden committed to a more “humane” treatment of migrants after Trump received criticism for detaining children in “cages” during a 2018 surge. But now, the Biden administration is left to try to make room for the increasing number of unaccompanied children. When asked if the living conditions of these children was acceptable, White House press secretary Jen Psaki said, “It’s not acceptable, but I think the challenge here is there are not that many options.” “We have a lot of critics, but many are not putting forward solutions,” she said. “The options here are sending the kids back on the journey, sending them to unvetted homes or working to expedite sending them into shelters where they can get treatment by medical doctors, educational resources, legal resources and mental health counseling.”
Trump blames Biden for border crisis --Former President Trump on Tuesday blamed his successor for the burgeoning crisis at the southern border, saying previous progress has been "eroded" under President Biden. In an interview with Fox News Channel’s Maria Bartiromo, Trump argued that his working relationship with Mexico and the partially constructed border wall had acted as deterrents for migrants while he was in office. “We did a lot of things, and all of that is now eroded,” Trump said. “Today, they’re coming in from all foreign countries. ... They’re dropping them off, and they’re coming into our country, and it’s a disgrace. They’re going to destroy our country if they don’t do something about it.” The Biden administration is scrambling to accommodate a surge of unaccompanied minors from Central America who have arrived at the southern border seeking entry into the U.S. Reports indicate the federal government now has more than 13,000 young people in custody. Many are being kept in Customs and Border Protection (CBP) cells meant for adults for longer than is legally permissible. Democrats hammered Trump for his own handling of migrant children. Under Trump's "zero tolerance" policy, children were separated from their parents in an effort to deter families from crossing the border illegally. Democrats also repeatedly criticized Trump for keeping children in CBP cells, where they did not have access to educational, health or legal services. The Biden White House has publicly urged migrants to stay home and not attempt to enter the U.S. But the border surge has shown no signs of abating, and the administration has been searching for answers after allowing thousands of young people to stay in the country as they make their way through the immigration processing system. The administration will reportedly house thousands of young people at a convention center in Dallas and 1,000 more at a tent city outside of Midland, Texas, as it seeks to move young people out of CBP custody. “They’re destroying our country,” Trump said on Tuesday. “People are coming in by the hundreds of thousands. Young people are coming in, and they leave their homes, and they come up because they think it’s going to be so wonderful, and frankly our country can’t handle it. It’s a crisis like we’ve rarely had and certainly we’ve never had on the border, and it’s going to get much worse. ... With a little bit of time, you’ll see those numbers expand at a level like you’ve never seen before.”
GOP Senators Accuse Biden Of Breaking Law, Sparking 'Humanitarian Crisis' With Border Wall Halt - Forty Senate Republicans have accused President Joe Biden of breaking federal budget law when he suspended the construction of a southern border wall, and say the halt contributed to the current crisis involving illegal border crossings, according to Bloomberg. On Wednesday, Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) ad 39 other Senate Republicans demanded that the Government Accountability Office (GAO) investigate Biden for a potential violation of a 1974 act forbidding the executive branch from refusing to spend Congressionally-appropriated funds."On Jan. 20, in one of the first official acts of his presidency, Joseph Biden suspended border wall construction and ordered a freeze of funds provided by Congress for that purpose. In the weeks that followed, operational control of our southern border was compromised and a humanitarian and national security crisis has ensued," states the letter. "The President’s actions directly contributed to this unfortunate, yet entirely avoidable scenario. They are also a blatant violation of federal law and infringe on Congress’s constitutional power of the purse."The letter, organized by Sen. Shelly Moore Capito (R-WV) who sits on the Homeland Security spending panel, asks GAO head Gene Dodaro to render a legal opinion on whether Biden violated the Impoundment Control Act."We have to recognize that words have consequences and actions have consequences," said Rep. Liz Cheney (R-WY). "When the Biden Administration refuses to enforce our immigration laws, when they refuse to build the wall, when they pass legislation like the bill that we passed yesterday that includes money for illegal immigrants, this is what happens."
White House press secretary slips up, calls border migrant surge a 'crisis' --For weeks, Biden administration officials have scrupulously avoided using the word "crisis" to describe the migrant surge on the southern border.But White House press secretary Jen Psaki did exactly that during a press briefing Thursday.Psaki was responding to a question about U.S. plans to lend doses of the AstraZeneca vaccine to Mexico, and whether the U.S. made any demands in return for those doses, including increased cooperation on immigration matters."There have been expectations set outside of, unrelated to, any vaccine doses or requests for them, that they would be partners in dealing with the crisis on the border," Psaki said. Later, when another reporter asked her about her use of the term "crisis," she immediately reverted to "challenges" — the word the White House has been using when repeatedly pressed on the most accurate way to refer to the growing problem.
FEMA official says COVID-19 positivity rate among migrants is 6 percent -The acting chief of the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) said Tuesday that under 6 percent of immigrants at the southern border have tested positive for the coronavirus amid growing alarm among Republicans over a spike in crossings. "There's testing happening," acting FEMA Administrator Robert Fenton said during a hearing before the House Appropriations Subcommittee on Homeland Security. "What we're seeing is less than 6 percent positive right now, coming across the border." The remarks come amid a sharp spike in attempted border crossings. The Biden administration has continued the Trump administration’s policy of turning away migrant adults and families at the border out of concern over the spreading of the coronavirus, though unaccompanied minors have been allowed into the country. Department of Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas said in a statement Tuesday morning that the number of attempted crossings at the U.S. southern border is expected to reach its highest level in two decades. “We are expelling most single adults and families. We are not expelling unaccompanied children. We are securing our border, executing the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s (CDC) public health authority to safeguard the American public and the migrants themselves, and protecting the children. We have more work to do,” Mayorkas said. Republicans have seized on the swell of migrants looking to cross the border, accusing President Biden of adopting lax immigration policies that could fuel coronavirus outbreaks. "The Biden Administration is recklessly releasing hundreds of illegal immigrants who have COVID into Texas communities," Texas Gov. Greg Abbott (R) tweeted earlier this month. "The Biden Admin. must IMMEDIATELY end this callous act that exposes Texans & Americans to COVID." However, the rate of infection among immigrants at the border is lower than in Texas, where the positivity rate is 13.33 percent, according to a tracker by Johns Hopkins University. Migrants who are allowed to cross the border are first tested for the coronavirus. As many as 25,000 people who are awaiting an immigration court hearing were previously forced to remain in Mexico during the Trump administration. Fenton said Tuesday that "anyone that is at risk can be tested by local or state government and FEMA reimburses those costs 100%," and that FEMA is supporting testing programs in Arizona, California and Texas.
Biden should thank Trump, not blame him, for what he left - Poor Joe Biden. It was his misfortune to inherit one of the technological marvels of our time.Before President Biden took office, the Pfizer and Moderna COVID vaccines had been authorized for use (with another, from Johnson & Johnson, on the way) and were already being administered to people around the country.Typically, it takes 10 years or more to develop a vaccine, but here were two vaccines against a deadly virus that took less than a year from inception to finding their way into people’s arms.And yet, listening to Biden and much of his team, you’d be forgiven for thinking that he had to conjure the vaccines out of nowhere because the Trump administration, in its callousness and incompetence, chose to sit on its hands.Despite his talk of unity and his irenic tone, gratitude hasn’t been a Biden strong suit. He and his officials have blamed President Donald Trump in two areas where they inherited success, the vaccines and the border, and should have been absolutely delighted with their good fortune.When President Trump began promising a vaccine before the end of 2020, no one believed him. The Hill ran a piece headlined “Trump’s new vaccine timeline met with deep skepticism.” NBC News published an article titled “Fact check: Coronavirus vaccine could come this year, Trump says. Experts say he needs a ‘miracle’ to be right.” Similarly, ABC News ran a report titled “Trump promises coronavirus vaccine by the end of the year, but his own experts temper expectations.”Back then, vaccine skepticism, which is now nearly universally condemned, was acceptable at the highest levels of our politics. Asked if she would take a vaccine approved prior to the election, then-vice presidential candidate Kamala Harris said, “Well, I think that’s going to be an issue for all of us.”Now, these same vaccines are a key part of the success story that Biden wants to tell about his response to the pandemic, and so the Trump effort has to be ignored or run down. Biden has referred to “the mess” he inherited, and Harris has said that “in many ways we’re starting from scratch on something that’s been raging for almost an entire year.”Never mind that without Trump’s Operation Warp Speed there wouldn’t be a Moderna vaccine.Or that the Trump administration had contracts for 100 million doses of the Pfizer vaccine, 100 million doses of the Moderna vaccine, 100 million doses of Johnson & Johnson and 800 million doses of vaccine overall. Or that the last day of the Trump administration, 1.5 million people were vaccinated, putting Biden on a pace to easily achieve his supposedly showy goal of 100 million vaccinations in 100 days.
A number of Republican lawmakers are saying no to COVID-19 vaccines --Republicans are at odds over the wisdom and efficacy of taking the COVID-19 vaccine, undermining national efforts to defeat the coronavirus and reinforcing the views of GOP base voters already reluctant to participate in the ramped-up inoculation program. Although the top GOP leaders, including Sen. Mitch McConnell (Ky.) and Rep. Kevin McCarthy (Calif.), were quickly vaccinated in December — and encouraged the public to follow suit — a number of high-profile rank-and-file members say they intend to ignore the advice. Some of those holdouts say they’re concerned the vaccine poses a greater health threat than COVID-19 itself. Others have indicated they don’t want to jump ahead of constituents in line for vaccines of their own. And still others note that, because they contracted COVID-19 over the past year, they have the antibodies to fight the disease in the future, precluding the need to be inoculated. “I have not chosen to be vaccinated because I got it naturally and the science of 30 million people — and the statistical validity of a 30 million sample — is pretty overwhelming that natural immunity exists and works,” said Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.), an ophthalmologist who contracted the disease last March and does not wear a mask in the Capitol. “I had COVID,” echoed Sen. Ron Johnson (R-Wis.), who tested positive for it in October. Several other Republicans said that, three months after the vaccine became available to members of Congress, they’re still consulting with their doctors about whether they’ll take it. “I'm still looking at it, I'm listening to my doctor,” said Sen. Rick Scott (R-Fla.), another COVID-19 survivor and former health care executive who is the chairman of the Senate GOP campaign arm. “In Indiana, it had just recently crossed the threshold, so I was also concerned about not jumping in line ahead of anybody,” said Sen. Mike Braun (R-Ind.). “But I advise you to get the vaccine, and it looks effective and I intend to." The hesitancy and muddled messaging arrives as the Biden administration, backed by public health experts, is urging Americans to get a vaccine as soon as they become eligible to do so. The issue, however, has become highly partisan, as a huge swath of Republican voters say they’ll refuse to do so.
Mar-a-Lago partially closed due to COVID-19 outbreak - Former President Trump's luxury resort club Mar-a-Lago has reportedly been partially closed in response to an outbreak of COVID-19 at the Palm Beach, Fla., property. Sources confirmed to The Associated Press that Mar-a-Lago has been closed until further notice in a cautionary move that follows positive COVID-19 tests. Several workers have reportedly been quarantined. The extent of the outbreak and the identities of those who have tested positive were not immediately made known. Trump and former first lady Melania Trump, who now live at the property, previously contracted the virus last year and have also received their full vaccination for the disease. Further details are not yet known. Those who spoke to the AP did so on the condition of anonymity and were reportedly not authorized to discuss the situation directly. Since Trump left office, the former president and Republicans have used the resort as a meeting place, and parts of the Republican National Committee spring retreat are set to be held there next month. The retreat, which is scheduled to run from April 9 to 11, is expected to draw some of the GOP’s biggest donors to Palm Beach and will feature a speech by Trump, who continues to retain his grip on the party. The party regularly held its donors retreat in Palm Beach during Trump’s presidency, with some events at Mar-a-Lago.
Former health care executive: Koch network promoting 'fear-mongering' ad campaign against public option -Former health care executive Wendell Potter on Tuesday said a new ad campaign from the political advocacy group backed by billionaire Charles Koch is using “fear-mongering” tactics to convince Americans to oppose President Biden’s public health care option proposal. In an interview on Hill.TV’s “Rising,” Potter commented on a new ad being touted by Koch-backed Americans for Prosperity that characterizes a public option as not being in Americans’ best interest, and promotes an alternative “personal option” favorable to private health insurance groups. Potter, who now serves as president of the Center for Health and Democracy, explained that the messaging in the ad mirrors tactics historically used by private health insurance lobbying groups. “Those campaigns… are based on what I used to call ‘FUD’ when I was in the insurance business for 20 years,” Potter said. “We used to create ads like that that are intended to instill fear in people, to make them feel uncertain about what’s being proposed and to doubt that what’s being proposed is in their best interest.” “These are fear-mongering campaigns and they often are very effective,” he added. Potter said that while the ads can be impactful, he does not believe the personal option proposal will “resonate very much.” “It’s what some years ago folks were referring to as a ‘personal responsibility brigade,’ and that is it’s your responsibility to find private health insurance,” he said. “It does not work that way in health insurance and we need to have some government involvement in our health care system, or the insurance industry will revert to its old ways of deciding who they want to insure and blackballing those they don’t want to insure.” Watch part of Potter’s interview above.
Tom Cotton: Chamber of Commerce is 'a front service for woke corporations'- --Sen. Tom Cotton (R-Ark.) on Tuesday slammed the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, saying the powerful business lobbying organization has lost its way and is siding more often with Democrats and progressive causes. During an interview with radio show host Hugh Hewitt, the Arkansas Republican said the Chamber cited the Chamber’s decision in 2020 to back numerous Democrats and then endorse Neera Tanden, President Biden’s initial nominee to lead the Office of Management and Budget. “The Chamber endorsed several liberal Democrats for Congress, and all those liberal Democrats turned around last week, and every single one of them voted for [Speaker] Nancy Pelosi’s [D-Calif.] radical union bill,” he said, referring to House passage of the PRO Act. The measure would stiffen penalties for employers who violate workers’ rights, while strengthening protections for employees against retaliation. It would also make changes to the union election process and bolster collective bargaining agreements. Cotton, who's considered a potential 2024 presidential contender, continued with his criticism of the Chamber. “[T]hey often serve, too, as just a front service for woke corporations who are trying to peddle anti-American theories and demanding that their employees get reeducated and indoctrinated on anti-American ideas, like the fact that somehow we’re all terribly racist, or every one of our institutions is racist, and we all need to go to reeducation camps,” Cotton said. The Chamber responded with a statement saying: “Washington is confused. The U.S. Chamber is proud to work tirelessly to support our members and businesses of every size around the nation and the world. The Chamber is committed to working with pro-free enterprise, pro-business, pro-governing members of Congress in both parties.” Cotton told Hewitt that he’s not aware of any Republicans “who really listen” to what the Chamber has to say, adding that there are no longer "real Republicans" in its top ranks. “I mean, the Chamber of Commerce long ago purged most, if not all of its real Republicans in top ranks,” he said. Hewitt mentioned how the Chamber’s former top political adviser, Scott Reed, was forced out in September. The Chamber said at the time that Reed's dismissal was tied to breaching confidentially, distorting facts, withholding information from the organization and leaking information to the press. Cotton's criticism represents the latest rift between congressional Republicans and the lobbying group traditionally aligned with the GOP. After the Chamber endorsed the group of House Democrats in 2020, House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) said he didn't want the Chamber's endorsement, saying they had "sold out."
Guam National Guard members visit Marjorie Taylor Greene's office after CPAC gaffe --Members of the Guam National Guard on Monday marched to the Capitol office of Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene after she falsely claimed last month the US territory is a foreign country.Led by Guam’s only congressional delegate, Michael F.Q. San Nicolas, the group briefly met with one of Greene’s aides, who said the congresswoman was not at her office.“Thank you guys so much for all that you do. We really appreciate it. Thank you guys for keeping us safe,” the aide said, according to video of the meeting posted to Twitter by The Hill.Last month, Greene drew criticism when she erroneously asserted at the Conservative Political Action Conference that Guam is a foreign land.“I’m a regular person. And I wanted to take my regular-person, normal, everyday American values, which is, we love our country. We believe our hard-earned tax dollars should just go for America, not for what? China, Russia, the Middle East, Guam, whatever, wherever,” she had said, according to Business Insider.
Guam delegate visits Greene's office with books, cookies after she called US territory a foreign land -Del. Michael San Nicolas (D), a nonvoting delegate who represents Guam in Congress, visited Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene’s (R-Ga.) office with guidebooks of the U.S. territory this week after the congresswoman incorrectly referred to it as a foreign land. San Nicolas on Monday posted a video of him making the visit to Greene’s office along with a group of members of the Guam National Guard. In the video, San Nicolas could be seen with the guidebooks and treats in hand as he arrived outside her door while dramatic music played in the background. The congresswoman wasn't in the office at the time, but a staffer came out and greeted members of the Guam National Guard and thanked them for their service. The trip was a promise kept by the congressman, who said earlier this month that he would deliver “delicious Chamorro Chip Cookies” to Greene “as part of our ongoing outreach to new members to introduce them to our wonderful island of Guam” after she inaccurately referred to the territory as a foreign land in a speech urging against federal financial aid being sent overseas. "I'm a regular, normal person. And I wanted to take my regular, normal person, normal, everyday American values, which is, we love our country. We believe our hard-earned tax dollars should just go for America, not for what? China, Russia, the Middle East, Guam, whatever, wherever," she said in a speech at the Conservative Political Action Conference last month.
The Dark Money “Ring” of Charles Koch and Leonard Leo Gets an Airing Before the U.S. Senate – Followed by a Mainstream Media News Blackout - Pam Martens - - Last Wednesday, March 10, a Subcommittee of the Senate Judiciary Committee held a hearing of critical importance to every American on the growing tsunami of dark money that is corrupting the U.S court system, up to, and including, the U.S. Supreme Court. Senator Sheldon Whitehouse (D-RI), who has written extensively on the corrupting influence of dark money on American democracy, chairs that Subcommittee on Federal Courts, Oversight, Agency Action and Federal Rights.One would have thought that every major print and broadcast news outlet would have covered that hearing. Instead, the silence was deafening and smacked of censorship. The one peep that was heard from a major news outlet was a snarky attack on Whitehouse himself on the day of the hearing by the corporatized, right-wing Editorial Board of the Wall Street Journal, part of the Rupert Murdoch empire. The “Editorial Board” wrote this about Whitehouse:“On Wednesday the Rhode Island Democrat will hold a Judiciary Committee hearing on ‘What’s Wrong with the Supreme Court: The Big-Money Assault on Our Judiciary.’ Subtlety is not Sheldon’s speciality [sic]. The hearing is intended to advance his Amicus Act that would force the Court to change its rules on amicus briefs, which the Justices invite to inform them on the law and facts on cases.“Note the disrespect for the Court. The title of the hearing signals a foregone conclusion that the Justices are corrupted by money. This is a running theme of Mr. Whitehouse, whose preoccupations in the Senate have been undermining judicial independence and restricting the First Amendment rights of private citizens to influence their government.”Had a truly objective Editorial Board at the Wall Street Journal taken the time to read the full written testimony of Lisa Graves, President of the Center for Media and Democracy, that was presented at this hearing, there would be no doubt in their minds that the Federal court system in the United States has been obscenely corrupted by dark money, coming predominantly from fossil fuels billionaire Charles Koch and his dark money network. As the Wall Street Journal Editorial Board well knows, the reason that legislation is needed to reform the rules on the filing of amicus briefs is because Koch’s dark money network is flooding the courts with dodgy amicus briefs paid for by dodgy special interests. Graves’ courageous testimony named names and backed up her charges with hard facts. Graves explained the campaign to seat Amy Coney Barrett on the Supreme Court as follows: “Just seven months ago, billionaire Koch’s political arm, Americans for Prosperity (AFP), launched a ‘full-scale’ campaign to get Amy Coney Barrett confirmed to a lifetime seat on the Supreme Court on the eve of the presidential election. Koch was not alone in this, but the length and depth and intensity of his focus on remaking America’s laws to suit his image is unmatched. “AFP is only one part of the influence machine Koch Industries’ CEO has built up to capture the Supreme Court—and, with it, the meaning of our Constitution. The network he funds includes the Federalist Society. Koch has sought to keep the press from reporting on the names of the other billionaires and millionaires that fund his agenda, but leaks have revealed that it has included many extremely wealthy fossil fuel industry executives and heirs of corporate fortunes. “AFP deployed deceptive rhetoric designed to assure Americans that Barrett would be a judge who ‘puts the Constitution first, interprets the law as written, and protects our freedoms.’ They also claimed she will ‘uphold the rule of law’ and ‘not legislate from the bench.’ “But the real reason the Koch machine and its close allies were ‘all in’ for Barrett was because of their belief that she would be a sure vote for their radical pro-corporate, anti-regulatory agenda. They believe she will help usher in a legal revolution that will reverse a century of post-New Deal precedents they dislike.”
Millionaires dodged $2.4 billion in income tax, watchdog claims - The IRS should police wealthy Americans who intentionally dodge their income taxes with more vigor, according to a report from the Treasury Inspector General for Tax Administration. About 686,000 taxpayers who earn at least $200,000 a year had a combined $38.5 billion tax balance as of mid-May 2019, according to the watchdog. Further, the agency collects less than 50% of tax debt owed by high-income taxpayers within a year of the case being assigned to an IRS tax collector, the report said. For example, high earners — those making at least $1.5 million a year — paid the IRS just 39% of the taxes they owed, on average, according to the audit. Such taxpayers still owed about $2.4 billion in delinquent tax. "High-income taxpayer noncompliance can have a significant corrosive effect on overall tax administration as well as add to the belief that the nation's tax system favors the wealthy," according to the Inspector General report. It's important to determine how effectively the IRS is addressing delinquent taxes among the rich due to its limited staffing of experienced tax collectors, the report said. Eric Hylton, commissioner of the IRS Small Business/Self-Employed Division, said the audit's findings are inaccurate and an incomplete representation of the facts. For example, the conclusion that the rich paid 39% of owed tax, on average, only reflects what was paid within the first year of cases being assigned to a collection officer, he said. "Some of these cases were still being actively worked at the end of the analysis period, and the analysis does not follow cases in their entirety," Hylton wrote. "Therefore, it cannot be used to determine what the IRS ultimately collects." Tax debts The IRS doesn't make taxpayer income a high priority when determining which cases to work, the Inspector General report said. The agency places greater significance on other factors, such as dollar amount of the tax balance. But tax dollars owed isn't always an accurate identifier of the wealthy, according to the report. For example, the largest number of high-income taxpayers (69%) owe less than $25,000, the watchdog found. "It is reasonable to believe that taxpayers earning millions of dollars can pay tax debts that total a very small fraction of that amount," the report said. Wealthy Americans remain a "high priority" for the agency's tax collectors, Hylton said. The IRS does, and will continue to, evaluate its predictive models to judge whether refinements could better target delinquent high-income taxpayers, he said.
US intel says Russia, Iran sought to influence 2020 election- Russia and Iran undertook campaigns to influence the 2020 U.S. election, but intelligence agencies found no evidence that foreign actors tried to alter votes or other technical aspects of the voting process, according to conclusions of a declassified report released Tuesday. The two foreign campaigns sought to influence the election for different results — Russia, to promote former President Trump, while Iran went against him — but among five key judgements outlined in the declassified report is that no foreign actor interfered in the 2020 voting process. A classified version of the report from the Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI) was presented to then-President Trump, congressional leadership and committees with oversight over intelligence operations on Jan. 7. The report did not state whether it was made available to President Biden, who had not yet entered office at that time. “We have no indications that any foreign actor attempted to alter any technical aspect of the voting process in the 2020 US elections, including voter registration, casting ballots, vote tabulation, or reporting results,” the report concluded. Yet it also concluded that Russian President Vladimir Putin “authorized, and a range of Russian government organizations conducted,” influence operations aimed at undermining Biden’s candidacy and the Democratic Party in favor of Trump. The Kremlin’s campaign sought to undermine public confidence in the electoral process and inflame sociopolitical divisions, the report said, but did not see Russian cyber efforts gain access to election infrastructure. “A key element of Moscow’s strategy this election cycle was its use of proxies linked to Russian intelligence to push influence narratives—including misleading or unsubstantiated allegations against President Biden—to US media organizations, US officials, and prominent US individuals, including some close to former President Trump and his administration,” the report stated. Officials concluded that Putin had purview over Russian influence efforts, including actions of Andriy Derkach, a pro-Russian Ukrainian legislator who promoted false allegations about Biden and who was designated by the Treasury Department last year under Trump.
Russia Recalls Its Ambassador After Biden Vows Putin Will "Pay A Price" For Meddling -Just a day after the public release of the Office of the Director of National Intelligence's report alleging that Vladimir Putin ordered Russian agencies to conduct 'influence operations' during the 2020 election in order to 'boost' Trump at the expense of Joe Biden, an angry Kremlin has summoned its ambassador to the US back to Moscow for "consultations"."The Russian ambassador in Washington, Anatoly Antonov, has been invited to come to Moscow for consultations conducted with the aim of analyzing what should be done and where to go in the context of ties with the United States," Russia's Foreign Ministry said in a statement Wednesday. Of note is that the statement emphasized Moscow hoped to prevent an "irreversible deterioration" in relations - something that appears to be increasingly difficult given President Biden's interview also published Wednesday morning wherein the president vowed Russia will "pay a price" for "meddling" in US elections. Biden further agreed with ABC interview host George Stephanopoulos that Putin is a "killer".Here's the most controversial part of the interview which aired early Wednesday:Asked whether he believes Mr Putin is a "killer" in a pre-taped interview that aired on Wednesday, the president responded: "I do.""The price he’s going to pay, you’ll see shortly," he said.Mr Biden recalled meeting Mr Putin, during which he reportedly told him that he "doesn’t have a soul": "I wasn’t being a wise guy.""He looked back at me and said, 'We understand each other'," Mr Biden said.CNN is also reporting sanctions are likely coming as soon as next week, which will specifically target "people close to Russia President Vladimir Putin." Biden during this latest bombshell interview had claimed he know's Putin "relatively well".
Erdoğan calls Biden comments on Putin 'unacceptable' -Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan on Friday called Joe Biden's recent comments about Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin "unacceptable" and unfit for a head of state. Earlier this week, Biden was asked in an interview if he thought Putin was a "killer," and the president responded, "I do." “Mr. Biden’s statements about Mr. Putin are not fitting of a president, and a president coming out and using such remarks against the president of a country like Russia is truly unacceptable, not something that can be stomached,” Erdoğan told reporters in Istanbul, Reuters reported. “In my opinion, Mr. Putin has done what is necessary by giving a very, very smart and elegant answer,” he added. Turkey and Russia have developed a strong strategic relationship, with Erdoğan referring to Putin as a friend, while relations between Washington and Ankara have become strained in recent years over Turkey's human rights record and its acquisition of the Russian S-400 missile defense system. Putin also responded to Biden's comments, saying in a Thursday news conference, “I would say to him: I wish you good health.” In Wednesday's ABC News interview, Biden also said Putin would “pay a price” for Russia’s attempts to interfere in the 2020 U.S. presidential election, prompting Moscow to recall its U.S. ambassador, Anatoly Antonov.
Hostility rises between Biden, Putin -President Biden is not holding back in confronting Russian President Vladimir Putin, calling him a killer and promising tough action against a range of attacks by the Kremlin on the U.S. Biden is warning of plans to retaliate against Russia in response to the intelligence community’s conclusion that Putin authorized an influence operation aimed at undermining Biden’s candidacy in the 2020 election. The administration has strived to forcefully call Russia out for bad behavior from the highest levels of government, a break with former President Trump, who regularly spoke warmly of Putin and cast doubt on Russia’s culpability in election interference and other malign actions. But the Biden administration also wants to work with Russia in areas of mutual concern and the developments this week could complicate those efforts, given the angry reaction that the developments have sparked from Moscow. Putin on Thursday responded to Biden calling him a killer by saying it takes one to know one. The White House made it clear Thursday that Biden did not regret his comments but noted that the U.S was still hopeful of the possibility to work with Russia on areas of mutual interest. “President Biden and President Putin certainly have different perspectives on their respective countries and how to approach engagement in the world, but where they agree is that we should continue to look for ways to work together,” White House press secretary Jen Psaki told reporters, mentioning cooperation on extending the New START treaty with Russia and the fact that Russia was an original party to the Iran nuclear deal. “We are confident that we can continue to look for ways where there is a mutual national interest, but the president is not going to hold back, clearly, when he has concerns whether it is with words or actions,” Psaki said. The back-and-forth comes after the Office of the Director of National Intelligence released a report that found Putin approved an operation to try to discredit and undermine Biden’s campaign in favor of former President Trump’s.
Putin wishes Biden 'good health' after he calls Putin a killer --Russian President Vladimir Putin wished President Biden “good health” after Biden agreed Putin was a killer during an interview on ABC News.“I would say to him: I wish you good health," Putin said, according toBloomberg News.The comments came during a televised video conference in celebration of Russia’s annexation of Crimea, according to the news outlet. Putin said that Russia would have to work with the U.S. on its common interests despite their differences.“Although they think we are the same as them, we are different people, we have a different genetic and cultural-moral code,” Putin said, according to Bloomberg. “But we know how to defend our own interests, and we will work with them but in those areas in which we are interested and on terms we consider favorable for us. And they will have to reckon with that.”During the ABC News interview, George Stephanopoulos asked Biden if he thought Putin was a killer, Biden said “I do.”Konstantin Kosachyov, deputy chairman of the Russian parliament’s upper house, demanded that Biden apologize for the remark. Putin’s spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said that Biden made clear that “he doesn’t want to normalize relations with Russia.” Biden also warned during the interview that Putin would “pay a price” for Russia’s efforts to interfere in the 2020 presidential election. Russia’s foreign ministry recalled its ambassador to the U.S., Anatoly Antonov, following the remarks, saying in a statement that he was summoned for “consultations in order to analyse what needs to be done in the context of relations with the United States.”
Putin challenges Biden to debate after president calls him a 'killer' - ABC News -- Russian President Vladimir Putin has reacted to President Joe Biden calling him a "killer" by challenging Biden to take part in a conversation with him broadcast live online.“I’ve just thought of this now,” Putin told a Russian state television reporter. “I want to propose to President Biden to continue our discussion, but on the condition that we do it basically live, as it’s called. Without any delays and directly in an open, direct discussion. It seems to me that would be interesting for the people of Russia and for the people of the United States.”Putin’s invitation seemed to amount to a challenge to Biden to a live televised debate, following a day of diplomatic uproar that began when Biden said he thought Putin was a “killer” in an interview with ABC News’ George Stephanopoulos. Russia recalled its ambassador to the United States in response to the remark.After issuing his invitation, Putin said he didn’t want to delay, proposing he and Biden hold the discussion as early as Friday. “I don’t want to put this off for long. I want to go the taiga this weekend to relax a little,” Putin said. “So we could do it tomorrow or Monday. We are ready at any time convenient for the American side.”
V. Putin Ain’t No Corn Pop -- Kunstler - Somehow, I don’t think Joe Biden understood what he thought Vladimir Putin understood about what they mutually understood. If I had to guess, I’d say that Mr. Putin understood Joe Biden to be the most pathetic blustering schlemiel he’d ever encountered on the international scene. But that must have been before Mr. B was installed in the White House by powers and persons unseen because it’s evident now that his handlers do not allow him to talk to foreign leaders, not even on the phone. Ms. Harris does that.The alleged president went on to tell Mr. Stephanopoulos that Mr. Putin was “a killer” who would “soon pay a price” for interfering in the 2020 election. In turn, Mr. Putin promptly called the Russian ambassador back home “for consultations,” which is generally what happens when one country makes warlike noises to another country.Mr. Putin added a tantalizing taunt days later, saying. “I’ve just thought of this now,” he said. “I want to propose to President Biden to continue our discussion, but on the condition that we do it basically live, as it’s called. Without any delays and directly in an open, direct discussion. It seems to me that would be interesting for the people of Russia and for the people of the United States. “I don’t want to put this off for long. I want to go the taiga this weekend to relax a little,” Mr. Putin went on. “So, we could do it tomorrow or Monday. We are ready at any time convenient for the American side.”Do you suppose Vladimir Putin is having some sport with Mr. Biden, this lightweight even among US politicians, with brain-rot to boot? Pretty soon, the president’s handlers will have to forbid him to open his pie-hole in public altogether. No more one-on-one interviews even with slow-pitch party shills like Mr. Stephanopoulos. They’ll just wheel him into the rose garden periodically like a cigar store Indian for proof-of-life demonstrations and leave the management of the nation… to others.
Trump phone call: Officials located December recording in a trash folder on Georgia investigator's device - Officials in the Georgia Secretary of State's Office located a recently released recording of former President Donald Trump's call to a state investigator in a trash folder on her device, a state official familiar with the situation confirmed to CNN.The discovery of the call comes after state officials originally told CNN that they did not think audio of the call existed. The call added to the examples of Trump's extraordinary efforts to push false claims of widespread voter fraud and influence Georgia election officials as they certified the state's election results.The audio file of the December 23 call between the former President and investigator Frances Watson was discovered as the Georgia Secretary of State's Office responded to a public records request. The personal familiar spoke with CNN on the condition of anonymity to describe the internal process.The Washington Post first reported the details of how the audio of the December phone call emerged. Watson declined comment to CNN through the Georgia Secretary of State's press secretary.CNN previously reported that in the December phone call to the Georgia Secretary of State's Office, Trump urged their top investigator, Watson, to find fraud in the 2020 presidential election, telling her that she would be a "praised" for overturning results in favor of President Joe Biden. Fulton County District Attorney Fani Willis had sent a round of letters to Georgia state officials in February, including the Georgia Secretary of State's Office, asking them to preserve documents relevant to election interference. Willis is currently conducting a criminal investigation into Trump's attempts to overturn the 2020 election results in Georgia.The secretary of state's office is also separately investigating Trump for his attempts to overturn the state's election results Audio of an hour-long January 2 phone call in which Trump repeatedly pressured Republican Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger to "find" the exact number of votes needed to overturn Biden's victory surfaced soon after the call happened. But the December call only became public last week.Watson told CNN affiliate WSB-TV's investigative reporter Mark Winne that she had recorded the December call from Trump for posterity. "It's not every day, that probably will never happen again in my lifetime," Watson told WSB.
Washington Post runs correction admitting it 'misquoted' Trump - The Washington Post admitted in a correction that it had “misquoted” former President Donald Trump telling Georgia’s top elections investigator “to find the fraud,” in December.The correction ran atop an online version of the updated original story that had quoted an anonymous source about a phone call Trump made to Georgia’s top elections investigation official shortly before Christmas.“Correction: Two months after publication of this story, the Georgia secretary of state released an audio recording of President Donald Trump’s December phone call with the state’s top elections investigator. The recording revealed that The Post misquoted Trump’s comments on the call, based on information provided by a source,” the correction published Thursday began. “Trump did not tell the investigator to ‘find the fraud’ or say she would be ‘a national hero’ if she did so. Instead, Trump urged the investigator to scrutinize ballots in Fulton County, Ga., asserting she would find ‘dishonesty’ there. He also told her that she had ‘the most important job in the country right now.'”
Alaska Republican Party Censures Sen. Lisa Murkowski, Vows To Primary Her --The Alaska Republican Party voted to censure Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska) and vowed to issue a primary challenge to her in 2022—coming after she voted to convict former President Donald Trump during February’s impeachment trial.The state Republican Party said (pdf) it passed a resolution to censure—another term for a strong condemnation—Murkowski not only for her vote to convict Trump last month, but because she voted in favor of Democratic-led initiatives such as not placing limits on abortions, against the GOP-led repeal of Obamacare, and voted in favor of President Joe Biden’s pick for Interior Secretary Deb Haaland, among others.
Trump: Supreme Court should be 'ashamed' for not reversing Biden win --Former President Trump blasted the Supreme Court for refusing to hear his campaign’s election challenges, saying on Tuesday that the high court lacked the “courage” it needed to overturn the 2020 election results. In an interview with Fox News's Maria Bartiromo, Trump repeated his claims that the election had been stolen from him because states moved to allow expanded access to mail balloting due to the coronavirus pandemic. Trump lost scores of court challenges, and his own Justice Department disputed the idea that there was widespread fraud in the election. However, the former president on Tuesday unloaded on the courts for refusing to throw out Democratic votes in states that changed their election laws to expand access to voting. “The Democrats used COVID to do things they can’t believe they got away with, that they didn’t get their legislatures to approve, and our courts and the Supreme Court didn’t have the courage to overturn elections that should have been overturned because you’re talking about decisive amounts, hundreds of thousands and even millions of votes,” Trump said. The former president singled out the Supreme Court, which refused to hear several of Trump's challenges because his campaign didn’t have standing. Trump appointed three Supreme Court justices in his four years in office, giving the high court a 6-3 balance in favor of conservatives. “The Supreme Court didn’t rule on the facts. It ruled on standing,” Trump said. “The Supreme Court should be ashamed of itself.”
Ryan Grim: Probes into Tara Reade's undergraduate degree 'demolished her ability to be heard' -Ryan Grim, the Washington, D.C., bureau chief at The Intercept, said Tuesday that the investigations into the validity of Tara Reade’s undergraduate degree “demolished her ability to be heard” for her allegations against now-President Biden. Grim detailed on Hill.TV’s “Rising” how the media reports surfaced citing Antioch University officials who questioned whether Reade had obtained her undergraduate degree. The reports led Seattle University School of Law to launch a probe into whether she should have been admitted. The Monterey County district attorney, for whom she testified as an expert witness, also started investigating her for perjury for allegedly lying about her credentials. “That pretty much demolished her ability to be heard on anything at that point because anybody who didn’t want to hear her out could just say look this is somebody who is being investigated for actual perjury,” Grim said. “There couldn’t be a much more discrediting moment in somebody's journey than that,” he added. The Seattle University School of Law later “backed off its claims,” he said, and the district attorney declined to pursue perjury charges. Last year, Reade had alleged that Biden sexually assaulted her in 1993 when she worked for his Senate office. Biden has denied her accusation.
GOP Rep. Tom Reed accused of sexual misconduct --A former lobbyist has accused Rep. Tom Reed (R-N.Y.) of sexually harassing her in 2017, The Washington Post reported Friday. Nicolette Davis, now an Army second lieutenant, told the Post that Reed drunkenly rubbed her back and thigh and unhooked her bra at an Irish pub in Minnesota after a day of ice fishing while she was working as a junior insurance company lobbyist. The allegations come as Reed, a co-chair of the bipartisan Problem Solvers Caucus, is considering a run against New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo (D), who is facing calls to resign from both parties after multiple women accused him of sexual harassment. Davis contacted the Post on Feb. 11 — before Reed said in a Fox News interview that he was considering a gubernatorial run — and said that her decision to go public with the allegations wasn't motivated by the New York Republican's political ambitions. Davis said that the interaction with Reed was part of a weekend trip in January 2017 to benefit the campaign committee of then-Rep. Erik Paulsen (R-Minn.). Davis said that Reed appeared intoxicated and at one point slipped and fell on the ice. Davis said that Reed began touching her while seated next to her at the Irish pub. She felt uncomfortable confronting Reed and asked the person sitting to her right for help. That person pulled Reed away and out of the restaurant, Davis recalled.
What’s behind the New York Times-led campaign to bring down Andrew Cuomo?New York Governor Andrew Cuomo is the latest target of yet another fraudulent sex scandal, which has become the weapon of choice used by the Democratic Party in the execution of its increasingly frequent political hit jobs.One is best advised to ignore the moral posturing of the sundry New York Democrats. This is a knife fight between competing factions of the corrupt New York Democratic Party machine. In this fight, the opponents of Cuomo are, to a great extent, motivated by calculations of career and political expediency. At this stage, the deeper issues that are driving the conflict are not yet fully known. But there can be little doubt that issues of concern to powerful political interests are involved.At the center of the manufactured sex scandal is, once again, the filthy New York Times. Its editor, Dean Baquet, endlessly sniffing for sin and soliciting stories of unwanted advances, inappropriate leers, and, with a bout of luck, an allegation of a career-destroying grope, has unleashed his newsroom bloodhounds against Cuomo. The father of yellow journalism, William Randolph Hearst, famously told his photographers as he campaigned for a military confrontation with Spain, “You provide the pictures, I’ll furnish the war.” The motto of Baquet is: “I’ll dredge up the allegations and then manufacture the scandal.”Its latest installment in the unrelenting campaign against Cuomo is an article by Shane Goldmacher, published Sunday, titled “The Imperious Rise and Accelerating Fall of Andrew Cuomo.” Focused on proving that Cuomo is widely hated, the Times unintentionally exposes the fact that the sex scandal is a pretext for settling scores and advancing other as yet unstated agendas. The article includes no actual facts proving Cuomo’s alleged behavior. It is, instead, comprised entirely of vindictive personal denunciations of Cuomo.One has the impression that the Times has made use of robocalls to contact whoever may have worked for or had some sort of contact with Cuomo during the past decade. All those who had, in one way or another, been offended, insulted, neglected, and, as is known to happen in the nasty world of bourgeois politics, double-crossed were given the opportunity to pour out their hearts into Goldmacher’s cell phone recorder.All the pent-up anger that Goldmacher managed to extract forms the basis of his take-down of Cuomo. He denounces Cuomo as an “ambitious,” “image-obsessed politician,” whose governorship is a “reign of ruthlessness and governance by brute force.” He is “Icarus-like,” “bullying,” “unwilling to share the spotlight,” makes “unrelenting and mercurial demands,” “intimidating,” “toxic,” “abusive,” requires an “intoxicating amount of attention,” is “convinced of his own hype and indestructability,” has “disdain for fellow Democrats,” an “imperious demeanor,” a “domineering approach” and “strong-arms legislators and anyone else who dared cross him.” Former lieutenant governor and austerity proponent Richard Ravitch is quoted as saying, “He’s not a nice person and he doesn’t have any real friends.” Ravitch, who is something of a Democratic Party intellectual, added sagely: “If you don’t have a base of support and you get into trouble, you’re dead meat.”
Fed pledges to continue flow of ultra-cheap money to Wall Street - The US Federal Reserve has again provided an assurance to financial markets that it will not increase interest rates any time in the next two years, despite revising upwards its forecast for US economic growth. The median estimate from Fed officials is that the US economy will grow by 6.5 percent this year, up from its forecast of 4.2 percent in December. It also forecasts that inflation will rise to 2.4 percent this year, up from the forecast of 1.8 percent in December and above the Fed’s target of 2 percent. But it insists this will not mean a rise in interest rates. In introductory remarks to a press conference yesterday, following a two-day meeting of the Federal Reserve’s policy-making body, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said “overall inflation remains below our 2 percent long-run objective.” There could be upward pressure on prices due to supply bottlenecks as the economy begins to reopen, he said, but “these one-time price increases are likely to have only transient effects on inflation.” The expectation is that it will decline to 2 percent next year before moving back up again by the end of 2023. To underscore that the Fed is not going to immediately respond to a rise in prices or a fall in the unemployment rate, Powell said the central bank’s goal is for inflation expectations to be “well anchored” at 2 percent. He the Fed expects to “maintain an accommodative stance of monetary policy” until its employment and inflation outcomes are achieved. A “transitory” rise in prices “would not meet this standard.” Powell repeated earlier commitments that the Fed’s purchases of Treasury bonds and mortgage-backed securities at the rate of $120 billion per month, implemented as a result of the financial market crisis of March 2020, will continue until “substantial further progress” has been made in achieving the Fed’s objectives. “The economy is a long way from our employment and inflation goals, and it is likely to take some time for substantial further progress to be achieved,” he said. Forward guidance for the Fed’s base rate and its balance sheet guidance “will ensure that the stance of monetary policy remains highly accommodative as the recovery progresses.” There were some minor indications of a shift among Fed officials towards an increase in rates. Four out of 18 officials indicated that they expected a rise in rates in 2022, compared to only one last December, and seven said they expected a rise in 2023, compared to five in December. Asked at his press conference about a possible “taper” in Fed policy, Powell said that any change in the central bank’s orientation would be signalled well in advance. The Fed’s latest statement appeared to satisfy financial markets, at least for the moment. The S&P 500 index and the Dow closed with modest gains. The tech-heavy Nasdaq index was also up. There was also a slight decline in the yield on 10-year Treasury bonds.
House Hearing Provides a Message to Robinhood Traders: Retail Investors Lose Consistently When They Actively Trade their Own Account - Pam Martens - There were plenty of fireworks during yesterday’s House Financial Services Committee hearing on the ongoingGameStop trading fiasco and two of the major players involved: retail broker-dealer, Robinhood, which offers free trading accounts to novice investors and provides behavioral messaging like a digital display of confetti when they complete a trade; and Citadel Securities, a giant market-maker that pays Robinhood to route the bulk of its orders to it for execution. The most interesting moment of the day arrived several hours into the hearing in the following exchange between Congressman Jim Himes (D-CT) and a hearing witness, Dennis Kelleher, Co-Founder, President and CEO of Better Markets, a Wall Street watchdog that has been working in the public interest for the past decade. Kelleher holds a law degree from Harvard Law School.Himes said he wanted to figure out if “what we’re talking about here is saving and investing or whether it is gambling.”
- Himes: “I’ve reviewed the literature here. There is no ambiguity. I’ve looked at the academic studies…It’s very, very clear what happens when retail investors trade a lot. Mr. Kelleher, in terms that the folks watching at home can understand, what happens when retail investors trade a lot?”
- Kelleher: “They lose and they lose consistently. And they lose because they’re paying more for every single one of their orders because we have an order routing system that is intentionally complex and designed to extract the maximum amount of wealth from the retail investor.”
- Himes: “But it’s not just the structure of the system, right? When you look at the literature, retail investors lose because of a whole series of human biases, because they don’t have teams of Ph.Ds studying the stocks that they’re buying, right?”
- Kelleher: “Absolutely. It’s like saying let’s send the local Little League team up against the New York Yankees or the Boston Red Sox or the LA Dodgers. Frankly, you have these institutions that have maximum informational advantage, maximum technological advantage, maximum sophistication. They get to use all of that they have paid billions for, for the purpose of extracting wealth.”
- Himes: “There’s going to be a distribution curve here. There will be some people who get lucky or who are at the narrow end of the curve who do win. But on average, for the folks at home, the more a retail investor trades, the less well they’re going to do from an investment and savings standpoint. There’s no ambiguity in the literature is there?”
- Kelleher: “None at all.”
Himes then turned to Sal Arnuk, a partner, co-founder and co-head of equity trading at Themis Trading LLC. If anyone understands the threat to your wealth from Wall Street, it’s Arnuk, who with the other co-founder of Themis Trading, Joe Saluzzi, wrote the 2012 book Broken Markets: How High Frequency Trading and Predatory Practices on Wall Street Are Destroying Investor Confidence and Your Portfolio. The exchange went as follows:
- Himes: “What’s a smart strategy for a retail investor who actually wants to make money, and save, and invest successfully?”
- Arnuk: “He should dollar cost average monthly into Vanguard index funds and buy and hold.”
The problem that many investors will find if they attempt to follow Arnuk’s recommendation is that their 401(k) plan offered by their employer, which for many is the only place they invest, does not offer low-cost Vanguard index funds, but instead offers high fee mutual funds recommended to their employer by some fast-talking Wall Street salesman. As for how that will work out over the long haul, see PBS Drops Another Bombshell: Wall Street Is Gobbling Up Two-Thirds of Your 401(k).For our own recommendations on how Wall Street needs to be restructured, see:Reimagining the Structure of Wall Street in the National Interest.
Takeaways from the Second GameStop Hearing in the House Financial Services Committee – Alexis Goldstein - On Wednesday March 17, I testified before the House Financial Services Committee at their second GameStop hearing. You can read my written testimony in full here, and watch the hearing here. Below are my topline takeaways. One of the themes that many Republican lawmakers hit on throughout the day was this idea that it perhaps wasn't Robinhood's fault that they (and other brokerages) prohibited purchasing GameStop stock on January 28. Many Republicans seemed to echo the excuse made by Robinhood in a blog post – blaming the lack of realtime settlement of trades for its trading freeze. I think this is likely a red herring. Long before Robinhood faced issues raising capital to meet clearinghouse requirements, it had a track record of outages, and design failures with tragic consequences. Over the series of several days in late January and early February, Robinhood drew down “at least several hundred million dollars” from its bank credit lines and then raised some $3.4 billion dollars from investors. Bloomberg reported that Robinhood was going to use the bulk of the funds as collateral at DTCC’s clearinghouse. (Bloomberg’s Matt Levine said that Robinhood’s investors got a "substantial desperation discount" for their emergency investment.) Separately, Robinhood is in talks with banks to raise another $1 billion of debt. In a blog post on Feb 2, four days after Robinhood halted trading in GameStop, Vlad Tenev wrote “T+2 settlement exposes investors and the industry to unnecessary risk.” To me, this seems like it may be an attempt to blame what may be a failure to manage Robinhood’s own internal risk on industry-wide settlement standards. I believe it's important for regulators and lawmakers to consider how to make the true costs of trading more transparent. Payment for Order Flow (PFOF), an arrangement where a market maker pays a retail brokerage a pre-set fee for every trade they execute, obscures this cost in many ways. And many Democrats asked about the potential for conflicts in PFOF, beginning with Chair Maxine Waters: Republicans seemed excited to give the SEC lots of enforcement work! What's interesting is how hard Republicans seem to want to lean on the SEC, when historically at least, they have been in favor of cutting the SEC's budget, or at least opposing the budget increases the SEC has requested. So I hope (but don't expect) that this is a new era where they will support a well-funded SEC! Democrats are interested in bringing more transparency to short selling. To address this, the SEC could move to implement a piece of the Dodd-Frank law that was never implemented: Section 929X(a) required the SEC to write rules to ensure there is monthly, public disclosure of short sales. In 2015, the NYSE petitioned the SEC for them to implement this rule. But it remainsunfinished. Many lawmakers see certain hedge funds as a potential systemic risk. This was discussed at length in the Committee's hearing memo: Another question asked repeatedly by many Republican lawmakers in the hearing was about the potential move to settle trades either same-day (T+0) or instantaneously (realtime settlement). A couple of lawmakers even mentioned, you guessed it, blockchain. (One funny exchange happened when former SEC Commissioner Piwowar noted that a lot of people ask him about blockchain and realtime settlement, and when he tries to respond, they just respond by saying "blockchain" louder.) I discussed one operational difficulty with moving to settle trades faster than T+1 in response to a question from Rep. Van Taylor: I also elaborated on this question in my written testimony:Stock Market Leverage Spikes in Historic Manner: Another WTF Chart of a Zoo that Has Gone Nuts - In the current craze that encompasses everything from sneakers and NFTs to stocks, where valuations don’t matter because of widespread certainty that valuations will be even greater in a few days, and where folks are chasing lottery-type returns, supported by the Fed’s interest rate repression and $3 trillion in asset purchases, and by the government’s trillions of dollars of handouts and bailouts – well, in this perfect world, there is a fly in the ointment: Vast amounts of leverage, including stock market leverage. Margin debt – the amount that individuals and institutions borrow against their stock holdings as tracked by FINRA at its member brokerage firms – is just one indication of stock market leverage. But FINRA reports it monthly. Other types of stock market leverage are not reported at all, or are disclosed only piecemeal in SEC filings by brokers and banks that lend to their clients against their portfolios, such as Securities-Based Loans (SBLs). No one knows how much total stock market leverage there is. But margin debt shows the trend. In February, margin debt jumped by another $15 billion to $813 billion, according to FINRA. Over the past four months, margin debt has soared by $154 billion, a historic surge to historic highs. Compared to February last year, margin debt has skyrocketed by $269 billion, or by nearly 50%, for another WTF sign that the zoo has gone nuts: But margin debt is not cheap, especially smaller amounts. For example, Fidelity charges 8.325% on margin balances of less than $25,000 – in an environment where banks, money market accounts, and Treasury bills pay near 0%. Margin debt gets cheaper for larger balances, an encouragement to borrow more. For margin debt of $1 million or more, the interest rate at Fidelity drops to 4.0% “Whether you need extra money for a short-term financing need or buying more securities, a margin loan may help you get the money you need,” Fidelity says on its website. In other words, take out a margin loan to buy a car or much needed bitcoin or NFTs. Every broker has its own margin interest rate schedule. Morgan Stanley charges 7.75% for margin balances below $100,000, compared to Fidelity’s 6.875% for balances between $50,000 and $99,999. For margin balances over $50 million, Morgan Stanley charges 3.375%. And it’s risky leverage for the borrower. It seems like risk-free leverage when stocks go up, but when your stocks do the unheard-of and tank below a certain level, your broker will ask you to put more cash into your account or sell stocks into the tanking market, whereby you then join the legions of forced sellers.
Unbanked stimulus seekers rush to open checking accounts - Banks took heat this week from impatient account holders who want their stimulus money quickly, but there are millions of consumers with an even bigger problem — they have no bank account to receive direct deposits. The Internal Revenue Service and the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. have been on a mission to get more unbanked consumers to open low-cost checking accounts that offer direct deposit so stimulus payments can be disbursed swiftly and safely under the Biden administration’s American Rescue Plan. More than 70 banks and credit unions, which hold nearly half of the nation's deposits, have joined the effort. A White House senior advisor emphasized the need to reach unbanked consumers by June when expanded child tax credits from the stimulus bill start rolling out. “We need to get those people banked,” Cedric Richmond, a White House senior advisor, said Wednesday at a virtual summit hosted by the American Bankers Association. “As we go into June, when those child tax credit payments will start to come, that's another time that I think that people having a banking relationship will be important.” The IRS has a link to the FDIC’s website, which in turn connects consumers to a list of those financial institutions that offer low-fee bank accounts along with instructions on how to sign up to receive stimulus payments through direct deposit. Consumers without bank accounts often wait longer to get paper checks or prepaid debit cards in the mail and also tend to pay check-cashing or ATM fees to access their funds. “We are encouraging consumers to think about opening a bank account, [and] many depository institutions are offering bank accounts with no overdraft fees and no-or-low minimum balance requirements,” said Leonard Chanin, deputy to FDIC Chair Jelena McWilliams.
Goldman pandemic loans draw scrutiny from Sens. Brown, Warren - The Senate Banking Committee is questioning whether Goldman Sachs Group paid dividends at the expense of lending to businesses and households during the pandemic as lawmakers take a broad look at the support big banks offered clients to get through the economic slump. Committee Chairman Sherrod Brown and fellow Democrat Elizabeth Warren sent Goldman Chief Executive David Solomon a letter late last week, asking how its banking unit made use of a temporary weakening of capital requirements last year, a move regulators intended to spur lending. The lawmakers asked him to produce data on the unit’s lending and on Goldman’s distribution of cash to shareholders. Industry groups “have argued that these reduced capital requirements support lending to small businesses and households,” Brown and Warren wrote, according to a copy of the letter viewed by Bloomberg. “It has also been widely reported, however, that banks are devoting a smaller share of their resources to lending for small businesses and households.” The inquiry is part of a broader debate over whether U.S. banks are offering enough credit to help the economy rebound. As individuals and companies sought loans to get through COVID-19 lockdowns last year, federal regulators temporarily let big banks reduce the amount of capital needed to support their activities. But, by some measures, bank lending declined to record lows as firms piled up cash and securities effectively guaranteed by the federal government, Federal Reserve data shows. “Throughout the pandemic, Goldman has provided a wide variety of financing to all of its clients — from consumer loans, to traditional corporate loans, and equity and debt financing in the capital markets,” company spokesperson Andrew Williams said. “Across all financing categories, volumes were up, and we are proud to have helped our clients and customers through an unprecedented and challenging year.” Goldman’s bank subsidiary last year increased total loans and lending commitments by 10% to $236 billion, according to an annual company report. But deposits, a key source of funding to make loans, increased 29%. That gap is found across the broader U.S. banking system, which increased loans by just 3% even as deposits jumped 22%. Brown and Warren previously criticized federal banking regulators for loosening rules to let big U.S. banks borrow more while simultaneously reducing capital by buying back shares or paying dividends to shareholders. Among their questions for Solomon, the pair asked if Goldman loosened its underwriting to make more loans to borrowers with dings on their credit reports, and whether the bank provided cheaper credit to its customers. They asked him to respond by March 26.
Goldman Sachs Just Landed in the Cross-Hairs of the Senate Banking Committee - By Pam Martens - Goldman Sachs has just come into the cross-hairs of Senator Sherrod Brown, Chair of the Senate Banking Committee, and his feisty colleague on that Committee, Senator Elizabeth Warren. The Senators sent Solomon a letter on Friday demanding answers to a series of questions surrounding Goldman’s decision to take advantage of a temporary, weakened capital requirement by federal regulators that was sold to the public as allowing banks to continue to make loans to businesses during the pandemic without being hamstrung by capital restraints. The Senators wanted to know, among numerous other concerns, if Goldman had received a waiver from regulators to continue its dividend distributions to shareholders (in other words, depleting its capital) throughout the pandemic while also availing itself of the weakened capital rule. Goldman paid $1.25 per share as a cash dividend each quarter throughout 2020. Its next declared dividend payment in the same amount is scheduled for payment on March 30.According to Goldman’s most recent SEC filing, it had 345,794,361 common shares outstanding as of February 5, 2021. Using five quarterly dividends of $1.25 per share, by March 30 of this year it will have paid out approximately $2.16 billion in cash to shareholders since its March 30 dividend payment in 2020.Add that $2.16 billion to the $5.4 billion that Goldman paid to settle claims related to its 1MDB bribery scandal and we reach the sum of $7.56 billion that has gone poof from Goldman’s capital since last March. S&P Global reported on January 19 that Goldman’s CFO, Stephen Scherr, announced on an earnings call with analysts on that date that Goldman planned to buy back approximately $1.9 billion of its stock in the first quarter of 2021. Since there’s only 15 days left in this quarter, one might assume most of that money has been spent.The capital rule in question is the Supplementary Leverage Ratio (SLR) which impacts only the largest banks and requires that they have capital equal to three percent of their total on-balance sheet assets and off-balance sheet exposures. The weakened rule allowed the banks to exclude holdings of U.S. Treasury securities and their deposits at Federal Reserve banks from their calculation of the SLR. The temporary rule was set to expire on March 31 but lobbyists for the biggest Wall Street banks have been lobbying to have the rule extended.The Senators indicate in the letter that they are singling out Goldman Sachs for this reason:“To our knowledge, Goldman Bank is the only depository institution that opted into these weakened capital requirements whose holding company continued to reduce its capital by paying dividends. We believe your organization has a unique perspective with regard to these rules.”There must be some type of subtlety that we’re missing on the words “opted into,” because two other Wall Street mega banks which, like Goldman, have massive off-balance sheet exposure to derivatives, also took advantage of the weakened rule and continued to pay out their regular cash dividends throughout 2020. Those mega banks are Citigroup and JPMorgan Chase.
Sherrod Brown quickly shifts Senate Banking panel's course— Less than two months after becoming chairman of the Senate Banking Committee, Ohio Democrat Sherrod Brown has flipped the panel's script. In contrast to the more industry-friendly, GOP-led committee between 2015 and last year, Brown is driving a sharp focus on racial inequality in the financial system and other progressive issues that is arguably more to the left than the priorities of past Democratic chairs. Over a span of less than a month, Brown has gaveled hearings on how to achieve an "equitable recovery" from the pandemic and how the financial system "hurts workers and widens the racial wealth gap." Two additional hearings scheduled for March will focus on affordable housing and financial risks associated with climate change. On Feb. 25, the committee addressed "rebuilding Main Street" during the pandemic. It is not clear whether the new focus is tied to a legislative agenda or merely to compel regulators to address financial system inequities in bank oversight. Regardless of the intent, observers say the committee's change in emphasis following the Democrats' election sweep is palpable. The committee "typically has sort of been, What can we do for the banking industry first, and those benefits will then possibly trickle down to other people?” said Graham Steele, a former adviser to Brown and director of the corporations and society initiative at the Stanford Graduate School of Business. “And Sen. Brown sort of flips that on its head and says: What do people need? And how can the banking system facilitate that?” Of course, not everyone is convinced. Republicans on the panel have not hid their skepticism, expressing concern that the committee under Brown's leadership could demonize financial companies. The committee's top Republican, Sen. Pat Toomey of Pennsylvania, specifically criticized the title of the March 4 hearing, “Wall Street vs. Workers: How the Financial System Hurts Workers and Widens the Racial Wealth Gap.” “The title itself expresses a worldview held by many on the left that capitalism is failing far too many people,” said Toomey. “Do we really think that capitalism and a capitalist financial system is the primary cause of these problems and challenges? … In my view, capitalism ranks with the wheel and written language among the greatest of human achievements.” In a statement to American Banker, Brown said his goal "is to pursue an agenda centered around the dignity of work and equity." “For too long this committee did the bidding of Wall Street and big corporations,” Brown said. He added, "This committee can make the difference in the lives of Black and brown families by pursuing an agenda that is focused on making sure our government and the economy work for everyone and by ending decades of discrimination and disempowerment fueled by our banking and housing systems.” Yet analysts have struggled to get a clear picture of Brown's legislative goals, suggesting he is using the hearings more as a messaging tool.
Sherrod Brown takes case for digital accounts to resistant bankers — Senate Banking Committee Chairman Sherrod Brown, D-Ohio, told an audience of bankers that his proposal to offer free, government-backed digital wallets to all consumers would increase the number of banks’ customers. Brown’s comments at an American Bankers Association virtual conference on Wednesday come at a time when industry trade groups have largely opposed his plan to widely offer FedAccounts digital wallets. Bankers have been pushing for the government to leave consumer banking to the private sector. “One way we can get people in the doors of your banks, one way we can rebuild people's trust, is through my plan on FedAccounts,” Brown said. “These will be no-fee bank accounts available to every American at a post office or a small bank or credit union backed by the Federal Reserve," he added. "These would be basic accounts. You already have the infrastructure in place to support them.” Brown said, if signed into law, the government would reimburse small banks as they implement FedAccounts. “For small banks, the Fed would reimburse you for the operating costs,” Brown said. “You would be building new customers.” For months, Brown has touted his proposal to offer all consumers FedAccounts digital wallets, made available through the U.S. Postal Service and community bank branches. The proposal is intended to bring unbanked and underbanked groups into the banking system and make it easier for consumers to access government stimulus payments. Industry trade groups have largely opposed the proposal, arguing that the U.S. Postal Service is not equipped to offer banking services and that banks already have the ability to offer affordable accounts to underbanked consumers. Sen. Pat Toomey, R-Pa., the ranking Republican on the Senate Banking Committee, said he strongly opposes Brown’s FedAccounts proposal. “I would have to work very hard for a long time to come up with a worse idea than having the government become a national bank executed through the post office,” Toomey told conference attendees. “I’m pretty sure I got a Christmas card last week," Toomey added. "It was postmarked for December. So we're going to have these folks managing our money? … It’s ridiculous. It’s a very bad idea. If this gets any kind of traction at all, I will be fighting this very, very aggressively.” Brown, meanwhile, had some criticism of the banking industry in his remarks. “People don’t trust banks. They especially don’t trust the biggest banks,” he said.
Fed nears decisions on key capital break, shareholder distributions — The Federal Reserve is days away from announcing a decision on capital relief that big banks have been pushing for the central bank to extend past the end of March, said Fed Chair Jerome Powell. The Fed last April announced a one-year easing of the supplementary leverage ratio, a measure of capital strength, for bank holding companies with more than $250 billion of assets. It was followed the next month by similar moves from other agencies for banks under their watch. The Fed will “have something to announce on that in the coming days,” Powell said on a possible extension of the relief during a Wednesday press conference after a meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee, but he declined to elaborate further. The supplementary leverage ratio, or SLR, is an extra cushion imposed on the biggest banks, measuring their capital against their entire balance sheets. The temporary steps announced last spring allowed banks to exclude Treasuries and reserves held at the Fed from the SLR calculation, enabling them to expand their balance sheets and help the support the economy during the coronavirus pandemic. Banks have argued the relief should remain in place as they continue to respond to economic need resulting from the COVID-19 outbreak, but prominent Democrats — including Senate Banking Committee Chair Sherrod Brown — have pushed regulators against prolonging the exemptions, arguing that banks should be conserving capital. The Fed is also “a couple of weeks away” from announcing a decision on bank dividends and share repurchases for the second quarter of this year, said Powell. Between June and December, banks could not repurchase shares and had to limit dividends to what they paid out in the second quarter of 2020. Those restrictions were eased in January, with dividends and buybacks capped at amounts tied to average quarterly income in 2020. Powell had previously said the Fed would consider the pace of coronavirus vaccinations, along other factors, in deciding whether to lift its restrictions at all.
Banking regulators will let temporary capital relief expire as scheduled — Banking regulators will let the temporary capital relief provided to banks at the outset of the pandemic expire at the end of March as scheduled, a setback for the banking industry and a win for Democrats. The Federal Reserve last spring allowed bank holding companies subject to the supplementary leverage ratio to exclude U.S. Treasury securities and deposits at Federal Reserve banks from the measure of capital relative to assets. Bloomberg NewsThe Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. and the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency later joined the Fed in providing the same relief to banks, though accompanied with restrictions on shareholder payouts. The exemptions were meant to free up resources to make loans and to enable banks to absorb an influx of Treasurys, but received pushback from some who expressed concern about banks shedding capital in the middle of a crisis. Prominent Democrats, including Senate Banking Committee Chairman Sherrod Brown of Ohio and Sen. Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts, have argued that a further capital reprieve is inappropriate as long as banks continue to pay dividends to their shareholders. “The banks’ requests for an extension of this relief appear to be an attempt to use the pandemic as an excuse to weaken one of the most important ... regulatory reforms,” put in place after the financial crisis, Brown and Warren said in a Feb. 26 letter to the heads of the agencies. Though the Fed is not extending the SLR exemptions, the central bank said Friday that it would seek comment shortly on potential ways to permanently adjust the leverage ratio in conjunction with the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. and the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency. The Fed also said it is in discussions with the Treasury Department and other regulators to “on future work to ensure the resiliency of the Treasury market.” The SLR might need to be recalibrated over the long run in order to account for the high growth of deposits and the Fed’s continued asset purchases, the Fed said in a news release, adding that it wants to be sure that the leverage ratio wouldn’t “constrain economic growth and undermine financial stability.” However, senior Fed officials said that any potential changes to the SLR would not diminish the strength of current bank capital requirements.
U.S. warns banks over ties with sanctioned Chinese officials - The U.S. added more than a dozen Chinese officials to a list of people that banks must avoid, putting global financial institutions on notice that they risk running afoul of American sanctions. The State Department officially added 14 Chinese lawmakers, including a member of the Communist Party’s ruling Politburo, to a blacklist under the Hong Kong Autonomy Act. While all the officials had been already designated for sanctions by the Treasury Department in December, the latest action could lead to greater penalties for banks that have any business with them. “Foreign financial institutions that knowingly conduct significant transactions with the individuals listed in today’s report are now subject to sanctions,” Secretary of State Antony Blinken said in a statement Wednesday. The report didn’t name any specific banks found to have been in violation since the law took effect last year.Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Zhao Lijian denounced the action as an inappropriate interference in the country’s domestic affairs. The Communist Party’s Global Times newspaper separately warned in an editorial Wednesday that Beijing was prepared to retaliate if the U.S. imposed a new round of sanctions. “China will take vigorous measures to safeguard our sovereignty, security and development interests and safeguard legitimate rights and interests of our companies and citizens,” Zhao said. The U.S. move is the latest indication that President Biden intends to preserve much of his predecessors’ hard-line approach against China. By the time former President Donald Trump left office, the U.S. had sanctioned at least 45 Chinese officials over everything from stealing trade secrets to their role in policies involving Hong Kong and Xinjiang, including Politburo members Wang Chen and Chen Quanguo. Blinken is slated to hold talks with top Chinese diplomat Yang Jiechi later this week in Alaska for the first face-to-face meeting by senior officials from both sides since Biden took office. During a visit to Japan on Tuesday, Blinken accused China of using “coercion and aggression to systematically erode autonomy in Hong Kong.” The sanctions have done little to deter Chinese President Xi Jinping from moving to quash dissent in Hong Kong, with the National People’s Congress last week approving a sweeping election overhaul in the former British colony. The legislature also announced plans to expand the country’s legal “toolkit” to fight U.S. sanctions in the future.
FDIC chair dismisses threat of a Democratic power grab— The chairman of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. asserted a broad interpretation of her powers over the agency’s board on Wednesday, pushing back on reports that an incoming Democratic majority may be able to enact policy without her support. Speaking at the American Bankers Association’s virtual Washington summit on Wednesday, FDIC Chairman Jelena McWilliams said she looks forward to whoever President Biden taps to lead the two regulatory agencies whose directors have seats on the FDIC board, the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency and the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau. But McWilliams also sought to dismiss reports that once confirmed, Democrats on the FDIC board — who will then hold a majority of votes — may be able to push policy without her support using a little-known provision of the agency’s bylaws. “There has been some confusion about what the board can and cannot do,” McWilliams said, responding to a question from ABA President and CEO Rob Nichols about the board’s political dynamics and the potential for directors to “force a vote on something.” “With respect to the board agenda, the chairman really controls the board agenda — that's something that, frankly, has been a little bit misinterpreted in the last couple of months — as well determines what agenda items come to the board,” McWilliams said. The comments mark the first time McWilliams has publicly asserted her control over the board and its agenda in response to a hypothetical Democrat power play. The FDIC chair has long been understood to set the agenda of the agency, determining what items and policies the board can vote for in a given meeting. That left analysts with muted expectations for policy shifts at the FDIC until McWilliams’s term expires in mid-2023, even with Democrats making up the board’s majority. In January, however, American Banker reported that some Democrats were weighing the use of a “special meetings” clause within the FDIC’s bylaws, which would allow two FDIC board members to request a board meeting without the chairman’s support. While some analysts argued that such a maneuver could be used to put Democratic policy up for a vote, the special-meetings clause has never been used as a policymaking apparatus, and FDIC staff have repeatedly argued that the chairman would still retain control over the agency's agenda. Without historical precedent, it is difficult to predict how such a board conflict would be resolved, if it occurs.
Flagstar’s data breach, and what banks can learn from it -Flagstar Bancorp fell victim to a recent data breach in which personal information of employees and customers, including Social Security numbers and mailing addresses, was leaked and the thieves sought to extort some employees. The hackers exploited a flaw in Accellion’s File Transfer Appliance software, which the bank was using to secure sensitive content. Dozens of other Accellion clients were affected by the incident, including the law firm Jones Day, Harvard Business School and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand. The $31 billion-asset Flagstar, of Troy, Mich., declined a request for an interview but pointed to the breach notification it posted on its website on March 6. The incident is a reminder that though banks generally have top-notch security, they are still vulnerable to threats involving the software they use and the third-party vendors with which they work, and even the vendors with which those vendors work. The case also highlights the relatively new trend of cybercriminals leaking portions of sensitive customer data to coerce companies or individuals to pay money to stop the leaks. And it demonstrates that even midsize and smaller banks may need to invest in sophisticated attack simulations and cyberthreat-hunting exercises in addition to all the security practices they already follow. “We are seeing a clear trend of attacks on third-party suppliers, especially software vendors, to the financial sector as well as other industries,” said Steve Silberstein, CEO of the Financial Services Information Sharing and Analysis Center. “While financial services firms tend to have robust cybersecurity controls and defenses, third and fourth parties performing critical services for multiple valuable clients will continue to be lucrative targets for threat actors with a variety of motivations.” Public pressure on banks is only building as consumers say they care heavily about how the companies they work with protect their data. A recent consumer survey by Arizent, the parent company of American Banker, found that nearly eight out of 10 consumers consider security a primary or important consideration when choosing banks. What can other banks do to avoid falling victim to this kind of attack? The answer is to educate themselves on how they occur, understand the potential consequences and adopt cutting-edge defensive measures.
Report- Nearly half of all credit unions at increased risk of cyberattack - Roughly half of all credit unions and more than half of their vendors could have critical vulnerabilities in their technology that leave them at increased risk of cyberattacks. That’s according to a new report from Black Kite, a firm that creates cyber risk-rating profiles. The company analyzed the cybersecurity positions of 250 federally insured credit unions and 150 vendors that serve the industry. The biggest risks, the company said, include vendor weaknesses, a lack of email security and out-of-date computer systems. Cyberattacks on credit unions could result in financial risk ranging from $190,000 for small credit unions to over $1.2 million for larger institutions, according to the report. “Credit unions are entrusted with the livelihoods of their members. With great trust comes great responsibility to mitigate cybersecurity vulnerabilities, whether they are internal or via a third-party,” Bob Maley, chief security officer for Black Kite, said in a press release. “It is clear that the financial impact of cyber vulnerabilities for both credit unions and their vendors is significant, and resources need to be targeted to protect members and address the most costly areas of risk.” Black Kite found that as many as 86% of credit unions and 76% of vendors have had at least one employee credential leaked onto the dark web. Leaked credentials are used to deploy ransomware and other sophisticated cyberattacks. "At the end of the day, thousands of members’ sensitive information can be at risk due to a simple vulnerability," the report said. The company gave credit unions and industry vendors an average grade of a “B,” meaning breaches would require the skills of “persistent, highly experienced hackers.” The report went on to recommend that credit unions closely monitor and keep track of sensitive data shared with each vendor, classify vendors according to their industry or the services they provide, and include the number of sensitive records shared with vendors as parameters in their risk-management methodology.
Teen responsible for major Twitter hack to serve three years in prison - A teenager responsible for masterminding a massive bitcoin scam last year that involved hacking Twitter accounts for various politicians and other high-profile figures has been sentenced to three years in prison. Graham Clark, 18, agreed to a deal with prosecutors to serve three years in prison after pleading guilty to various fraud charges connected to the July 2020 hack, officials announced Tuesday. Clark, who was arrested last year at the age of 17, was sentenced as a minor and will serve time in a juvenile facility followed by three years of probation, with a minimum sentence of 10 years if he breaks the probation. Clark was charged with using a variety of hacking and social engineering techniques to gain access to dozens of high-profile Twitter accounts and ask followers to send bitcoin to a cryptocurrency account. Among the verified accounts hacked were those of President Biden, former President Obama, Bill Gates and Elon Musk. Clark was able to raise 12.86 bitcoin, the equivalent of more than $117,000 at the time, through the scheme. All of the funds have since been returned to the victims. “He took over the accounts of famous people, but the money he stole came from regular, hard-working people,” Hillsborough State Attorney Andrew Warren said in a statement on Wednesday. “Graham Clark needs to be held accountable for that crime, and other potential scammers out there need to see the consequences. In this case, we’ve been able to deliver those consequences while recognizing that our goal with any child, whenever possible, is to have them learn their lesson without destroying their future,” he said.
U.S. small businesses are holding off the debt apocalypse. For now - Government relief programs and lenders’ forbearance have kept U.S. small businesses from defaulting on their debt en masse as revenue slumped during the pandemic crisis, according to a new analysis. Among small firms nationwide, 18.3% of business payments were past due in January, a modest increase from 17.7% in February 2020, the Urban Institute said in a report using Dun & Bradstreet data. Somewhat more affected were two big cities on the coasts, New York and San Francisco, which saw increases of 2.5 and 4.3 percentage points, respectively. For now, businesses are sitting on enough cash to pay their bills. Cash balances were up as much as 41% at their peak in late August, as the federal Paycheck Protection Program pumped out forgivable loans to keep small firms afloat. Those balances were still up by 35% through late September, according to data from the JPMorgan Chase Institute. Meantime, business owners have cut their expenses, often by slashing payrolls, and many lenders and landlords have been lenient with rent and other bills. Despite the relatively strong credit metrics, the future remains uncertain for a sector that employed almost half the country’s private workforce and was a growth engine of the economy before COVID-19 hit. “Shrinking payroll, reducing physical space, and other accommodations are painful for small businesses and may constrain their ability to grow,” the Urban Institute, a nonprofit research group, said in its report. “It’s also unclear what will happen when creditors cease to offer flexibility for businesses on repayment of their built-up amounts owed.”
Visa, Mastercard to delay merchant fee hikes another year --Visa and Mastercard are postponing plans to boost the fees U.S. merchants pay when consumers use credit cards online, pushing back the changes another year to April 2022 because of the pandemic. “Visa is committed to maintaining stability in our payments system and will not make any future rate changes in the U.S. for another year while the economy recovers,” the company said in an emailed statement. Retailers have been asking both networks in recent months to delay hikes in so-called interchange fees, hoping to avoid a jump in costs for accepting cards at a time when consumers are especially reliant on online shopping. The companies’ plans have drawn attention from Sen. Dick Durbin, the Illinois Democrat who previously helped limit fees on debit card transactions. “We urge you to call off these planned fee increases,” Durbin wrote in a letter this month to the card networks’ chief executive officers. “Our nation is still reeling from the ongoing pandemic.” As part of its delay, Mastercard said it’s also pushing back plans that would have caused some bricks-and-mortar retailers, along with convenience stores and supermarkets, to see higher rates. The network vowed that it would “continue to be thoughtful” about the timing of implementing the changes.
Merchants respond to DOJ probe of Visa debit card practices - The Justice Department is reportedly exploring whether Visa’s debit card practices are anticompetitive, and merchants say an investigation is long overdue. The primary focus of inquiries conducted by the agency’s antitrust division is whether Visa’s policies limit merchants’ ability to choose the lowest-cost approach to routing debit card transactions online, according to Friday reports in the The Wall Street Journal and Bloomberg News. The DOJ is also looking into the in-store debit card policies of Visa, which has dominant share in U.S. credit cards, the Journal reported. Visa and the DOJ would not provide comment for this story. The San Francisco-based company’s stock price fell more than 5% in the wake of the news.The Merchants Payments Coalition, a Washington, D.C.-based trade group representing retailers that has lobbied for years to reform card network fees, said it welcomes any DOJ investigation. “This is good news. The MPC has been concerned about these practices to limit debit routing for years and it’s great to see the DOJ looking into it,” said Craig Shearman, a spokesman for the MPC. Debit card routing became a focus of scrutiny after the 2008 financial crisis, resulting in the adoption of the Durbin amendment within the Dodd-Frank Act, which guaranteed choices in routing debit card transactions. The law requires that debit cards offer merchants a choice of two unaffiliated card network options—including one that isn’t Visa or Mastercard—so they can opt to route transactions on independent debit card networks that typically are cheaper. But merchants say their debit-routing choices are not as clear for online transactions, which has become a bigger problem as e-commerce has surged when consumers were quarantined beginning last year. The Durbin amendment wasn't clear about how debit routing would be handled online, and in many cases, e-commerce merchants are forced to default to Visa or Mastercard to route transactions because other options aren’t always available, merchants say. “Limits on debit routing have been an issue for both in-store and online transactions, but routing for online transactions is particularly important at a time when online shopping has accelerated so rapidly during the pandemic,” Shearman said.
EMV deadline nears for gas stations, but many won't make it --The card brands are taking their last major step in the U.S. EMV migration by enforcing a liability shift at fuel stations. The April 17 deadline has been delayed multiple times — it was originally set for October 2015 — even as the rest of the country marched ahead with EMV conversions at the point of sale. The challenges facing fuel retailers included costs, available hardware and certification processes. And after the extended deadlines, the card brands are seeing results. "The fuel industry has made significant progress upgrading to a more secure and consistent EMV purchase experience," Mastercard said in a written statement. "As the number of chip transactions at the pump continues to grow, we’re working with the fuel industry to help them meet the upcoming liability shift milestone and further curtail fraud and minimize risk to consumers." In the past, Discover, American Express and other card brands have followed the lead of Visa and Mastercard in setting their EMV deadlines. But the challenge is far from over, with many fuel stations still questioning the costs to upgrade pumps, contemplating the business case to do so and getting in line for the proper hardware, software installations and certification processes that have backed up considerably during the pandemic. "The card brands are correct in that more sites are coming online, depending on which card brand you listen to, because they don't publish the statistics on this yet," said Linda Toth, managing director at Conexxus, a nonprofit member association that establishes operating standards and guidance for convenience store and fuel merchants. "We are making progress in the industry toward EMV, but is everyone going to be compliant in April? That answer is no," Toth said.
Five attorneys general join Texas-led lawsuit against Google - Attorneys general from four states and Puerto Rico joined the Texas-led lawsuit against Google, including Nevada Attorney General Aaron Ford, the first Democrat to join the effort. Alaska, Florida, Montana and Nevada, which all have Republican attorneys general, also joined the lawsuit on Monday, bringing the total number of plaintiffs to 15 states and territories. “Our coalition looks forward to holding Google accountable for its illegal conduct and reforming Google’s practices in the future. And we are confident Google will be forced to pay for its misconduct through significant financial penalties,” Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton said in a statement Tuesday. The lawsuit filed in December alleges Google has violated federal and state antitrust and consumer protection laws. The Texas-led suit focuses on allegations that Google stifled competition in the advertising technology market. In the updated complaint filed Monday, the states also target Google’s plans to phase out its tracking features that use third-party cookies. Google said earlier this month it will not build alternative methods to track users after phasing out third-party cookies. The move would limit companies from using third-party cookies on Google's dominant Chrome browser. “Google’s new scheme is, in essence, to wall off the entire portion of the internet that consumers access through Google’s Chrome browser,” the states said in the complaint. “Overall, the changes are anticompetitive because they raise barriers to entry and exclude competition in the exchange and ad buying tool markets, which will further expand the already dominant market power of Google’s advertising businesses,” they added.
Manafort sued by bank that lent mortgage on his Hamptons home - The Chicago bank that lent millions of dollars to Paul Manafort under its founder and former longtime chief executive has now sued the former Trump campaign chairman and his wife, seeking to foreclose upon his mansion in the Hamptons. Manafort, an international political consultant and Republican Party operative, was pardoned by then-President Donald Trump on Dec. 23 after he’d been convicted in August 2018 of lying to tax authorities about tens of millions of dollars he earned as a political consultant in Ukraine and misleading banks about his financial health to get loans. He was serving a seven-and-a-half-year prison term when he was released in May to home confinement due to the coronavirus pandemic. In a suit filed Tuesday in federal court in Brooklyn, N.Y., the Federal Savings Bank of Chicago sued Manafort and his wife, Kathleen, claiming they defaulted on a $9.5 million loan for their sprawling house in Water Mill, N.Y. After starting mortgage payments on Jan. 1, 2016, the couple hasn’t made any payments on the home located at 174 Jobs Lane since Nov. 1, 2017, and, as of March 2, they still owe more than $9.27 million, according to the bank. Federal prosecutors in 2019 charged Stephen Calk, the founder of Federal Savings, with bribery, alleging he pushed through $16 million in “high-risk” loans despite numerous red flags while seeking a post in the Trump administration. While Manafort wasn’t named in court papers in the case, the description of the high-ranking Trump administration official who received the loans matches him. The loan to Manafort was rejected by Federal Savings Bank in October 2016, but after Trump was elected in November 2016, Calk prompted the bank to reverse course and approve it, prosecutors alleged. Calk later sent a document ranking the administration positions he desired in return for the money — from secretary of the Treasury on down to 19 ambassadorships topped by the U.K. and France, according to the government. Calk has pleaded not guilty and his lawyer Dan Stein has said the loans made to Manafort were “good loans.” After Manafort was pardoned, prosecutors relinquished claims against Manafort seeking the Hamptons home, a Brooklyn brownstone he owns and his Manhattan apartment that had been part of a preliminary forfeiture order.
Bipartisan Senate bill would raise loan maturity limits for FCUs - A bipartisan bill introduced Tuesday would amend the Federal Credit Union Act to raise maturity limits for non-mortgage loans at federal credit unions from 15 years to 20 years. The bill, known as the Expanding Access to Lending Options Act, was sponsored by Sens. Catherine Cortez Masto, D-Nev., and Tim Scott, R-S.C. The pair introduced similar legislation last year, and another bill to extend loan maturity limits was introduced in the House in 2019. "The coronavirus pandemic has underlined the need for several reforms to ensure credit unions can provide products and services that meet members' needs, and providing the [National Credit Union Administration] flexibility for maturity products and removing restrictive requirements on certain loans is a step in the right direction,” Dan Berger, president and CEO of the National Association of Federally-Insured Credit Union, said in a statement. The proposed legislation, “will help create more opportunities for those seeking opportunities to access affordable credit options and grow their financial future,” Jim Nussle, president and CEO of the Credit Union National Association, said in a separate statement. The NCUA finalized a rule in 2019 reforming rules on loans and lines of credit, and indicated at the time it would continue reviewing comments on other issues related to maturity limits, NAFCU noted. However, the agency’s authority only goes so far, and some changes – including those proposed in the new bill – require amendments to the Federal Credit Union Act. Earlier this month, members of the House of Representatives introduced a bipartisan bill to provide some exemptions from limits on member business lending for credit unions making loans that help with the economic recovery from the coronavirus crisis.
First-time homebuyer credit could bring 9.3M renters into the market -- The Biden administration’s plan for a first-time homebuyer tax credit could boost homeownership potential in most large metropolitan areas, according to a study Zillow released Tuesday.In 40 out of the 50 biggest metros, an average 27.4% of renters could afford a monthly payment equal to one-third of their income for a local median-priced home if they received a credit of up to $15,000 for a down payment. The finding, which is based on an analysis of the amount of renters who would be able to obtain a 30-year Federal Housing Administration loan with a 3% interest rate and 3.5% down, could help lenders that are looking to offset waning refinancing with more purchase activity find more borrowers. The credit could open homeownership up to as many as 9.3 million, according to Zillow. Renters generally save an estimated 2.4% of their income yearly, so it would typically take 14 years to save for $15,000 for a down payment, according to the study.A tax credit would do the most for more affordable markets like Pittsburgh, where 40% could attain a median mortgage with it. In a more costly market such as Los Angeles, only 10.1% of renters would theoretically be able to buy a home using an FHA loan.Because the shortage of affordable housing and credit score eligibility could be issues in qualifying, there may be some unintended consequences. Credit availability has generally been relatively tighter during the pandemic.“Even though a tax credit for first-time homebuyers would likely stimulate minority homeownership, it could still disproportionately benefit white and Asian Americans who are better positioned to buy because of better access to credit and higher incomes,” Alexandra Lee, an economic analyst at Zillow, said in a press release.Temporary homebuyer tax credits that Congress passed during the Great Recessionincreased housing activity in the short term but did not have a lasting effect on the market, most studies show. If a similar Biden tax credit moves forward, the result may be the same.
Freddie Mac appoints Mark Grier as interim CEO -Former Prudential vice chairman Mark Grier has been named Freddie Mac's interim CEO, temporarily filling the role vacated by David Brickman in January. In the short term after Brinkman's departure, Freddie Mac was headed up by Michael Hutchins, who was promoted to president on Dec. 28. Hutchins will remain as president under Grier. Grier "is ideally suited to lead the company as we continue a thorough search for a permanent CEO," Sara Mathew, nonexecutive chairman of Freddie Mac, said in a press release. "I thank Mark for his leadership and look forward to working closely with him to continue serving the nation's homeowners and renters." Grier joined Freddie Mac's board in February 2020 after his 2019 retirement from Prudential. While at Prudential, he oversaw finance, risk management, corporate actuarial, investor relations, global business and technology solutions, and global marketing and communications. Grier joined Prudential in 1995 as chief financial officer and became vice chairman in 2007. Grier worked at Chase Manhattan and a predecessor company from 1978 to 1995, where he was an executive vice president of global risk management and executive vice president, co-head of global markets.
MBA Survey: "Share of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Decreases to 5.14%" -- Note: This is as of March 7th. From the MBA: Share of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Decreases to 5.14%: The Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) latest Forbearance and Call Volume Survey revealed that the total number of loans now in forbearance decreased by 6 basis points from 5.20% of servicers’ portfolio volume in the prior week to 5.14% as of March 7, 2021. According to MBA’s estimate, 2.6 million homeowners are in forbearance plans....“One year after the onset of the pandemic, many homeowners are approaching 12 months in their forbearance plan. That is likely why call volume to servicers picked up in the prior week to the highest level since last April, and forbearance exits increased to their highest level since January. With new forbearance requests unchanged, the share of loans in forbearance decreased again,” said Mike Fratantoni, MBA’s Senior Vice President and Chief Economist. “Homeowners with federally backed loans have access to up to 18 months of forbearance, but they need to contact their servicer to receive this additional relief.”Fratantoni added, “The American Rescue Plan provides needed support for homeowners who are continuing to struggle during these challenging times, and stimulus payments are being delivered to households now. We anticipate that this support, along with the improving job market, will help many homeowners to get back on their feet.”This graph shows the percent of portfolio in forbearance by investor type over time. Most of the increase was in late March and early April, then trended down - and has mostly moved slowly down recently.The MBA notes: "Total weekly forbearance requests as a percent of servicing portfolio volume (#) remained the same relative to the prior two weeks at 0.07%."
Black Knight: Number of Homeowners in COVID-19-Related Forbearance Plans Decreased - Note: Both Black Knight and the MBA (Mortgage Bankers Association) are putting out weekly estimates of mortgages in forbearance. This data is as of March 16th. From Black Knight: Forbearances Fall Below 2.6m For the First Time Since April 2020: Servicers continue to work through the large volume of scheduled March month-end expirations, which led to a decline in the number of active forbearance plans (down 16,000/-0.6%). About 620,000 active plans remain with March month-end expirations, roughly half of the 1.2 million such plans entering this month. This week’s declines were driven by improvements among both GSE (-13,000) and FHA/VA plans (-8,000), while active plan volumes rose among portfolio/PLS mortgages. 
All in, as of March 16, there are now 2.59 million active forbearance plans, representing 4.9% of all active mortgages. This marks the first time since early April 2020 that the number of outstanding forbearance plans has edged below 2.6 million. Keeping in mind those 620,000 mortgages in forbearance with March expirations, the extension and removal activity will be worth keeping a close eye on through the final two weeks of the month and into early April. We’ll post another forbearance update next Friday, March 26. The number of loans in forbearance has declined slightly over the last few months.
Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey - Mortgage applications decreased 2.2 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending March 12, 2021.... The Refinance Index decreased 4 percent from the previous week and was 39 percent lower than the same week one year ago. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index increased 2 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index increased 3 percent compared with the previous week and was 5 percent higher than the same week one year ago.“Mortgage application activity was mixed last week, as the run-up in rates continues to reduce incentives for potential refinance borrowers. The 30-year fixed rate increased to its highest level since June 2020, and all other surveyed rates were either flat or increased,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s Associate Vice President of Economic and Industry Forecasting. “After reaching a recent high in the last week of January, the refinance index has since fallen 26 percent to its lowest level since September 2020. Rates have jumped 36 basis points since the end of January, and last week refinance activity fell across all loan types.”Added Kan, “The purchase market helped offset the slump in refinances. Activity was up 5 percent from a year ago, as the recovering job market and demographic factors drive demand, despite ongoing supply and affordability constraints.”...The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($548,250 or less) increased to 3.28 percent from 3.26 percent, with points decreasing to 0.41 from 0.43 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value ratio (LTV) loans.
Housing Starts decreased to 1.421 Million Annual Rate in February - From the Census Bureau: Permits, Starts and Completions Privately-owned housing starts in February were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,421,000. This is 10.3 percent below the revised January estimate of 1,584,000 and is 9.3 percent below the February 2020 rate of 1,567,000. Single-family housing starts in February were at a rate of 1,040,000; this is 8.5 percent below the revised January figure of 1,136,000. The February rate for units in buildings with five units or more was 372,000.Privately-owned housing units authorized by building permits in February were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,682,000. This is 10.8 percent below the revised January rate of 1,886,000, but is 17.0 percent above the February 2020 rate of 1,438,000. Single-family authorizations in February were at a rate of 1,143,000; this is 10.0 percent below the revised January figure of 1,270,000. Authorizations of units in buildings with five units or more were at a rate of 495,000 in February. The first graph shows single and multi-family housing starts for the last several years. Multi-family starts (red, 2+ units) decreased in February compared to January. Multi-family starts were down 29% year-over-year in February. Single-family starts (blue) decreased in February, and were up less than 1% year-over-year. The second graph shows total and single unit starts since 1968. The second graph shows the huge collapse following the housing bubble, and then eventual recovery (but still historically low). Total housing starts in February were well below expectations, and starts in December and January were revised down slightly, combined.
Comments on February Housing Starts – McBride - Earlier: Housing Starts decreased to 1.421 Million Annual Rate in February. It appears the poor weather in February impacted housing starts - the largest declines in starts were in the South and Mid-West regions. Single family starts were up 38% year-over-year in the West (not impacted by poor weather). Permits (unaffected by the weather) were up 17% year-over-year, and were up solidly in the South and Mid-West. Total housing starts in February were below expectations, and starts in December and January were revised down slightly, combined. Single family starts decreased in February, but were still up slightly year-over-year. The volatile multi-family sector is down significantly year-over-year (apartments are under pressure from COVID). The housing starts report showed starts were down 10.3% in February compared to January, and starts were down 9.3% year-over-year compared to February 2020. Single family starts were up less than 1% year-over-year. Low mortgage rates and limited existing home inventory have given a boost to single family housing starts, but weather limited single family starts in February. The first graph shows the month to month comparison for total starts between 2020 (blue) and 2021 (red). Starts were down 9.3% in February compared to February 2020. The year-over-year comparison will be easy in March, April and May. 2020 was off to a strong start before the pandemic, and with low interest rates and little competing existing home inventory, starts finished the year strong. Last December, I noted: "Don't be surprised if starts are down year-over-year sometime over the next two months." So this year-over-year decline in total starts was not a surprise, especially given the harsh weather in February. Below is an update to the graph comparing multi-family starts and completions. Since it usually takes over a year on average to complete a multi-family project, there is a lag between multi-family starts and completions. Completions are important because that is new supply added to the market, and starts are important because that is future new supply (units under construction is also important for employment). These graphs use a 12 month rolling total for NSA starts and completions. The blue line is for multifamily starts and the red line is for multifamily completions. The rolling 12 month total for starts (blue line) increased steadily for several years following the great recession - then mostly moved sideways. Completions (red line) had lagged behind - then completions caught up with starts- then starts picked up a little again late last year, but have fallen off with the pandemic. The last graph shows single family starts and completions. It usually only takes about 6 months between starting a single family home and completion - so the lines are much closer. The blue line is for single family starts and the red line is for single family completions. Single family starts are getting back to more normal levels, but I still expect some further increases in single family starts and completions on a rolling 12 month basis.
New Residential Building Permits: Down 10.8% in February - The U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development have now published their findings for February new residential building permits. The latest reading of 1.682M was down 10.8% from the January reading and is below the Investing.com forecast of 1.750M.Here is the opening of this morning's monthly report, including a note regarding revisions: Privately-owned housing units authorized by building permits in February were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,682,000. This is 10.8 percent (±1.0 percent) below the revised January rate of 1,886,000, but is 17.0 percent (±1.4 percent) above the February 2020 rate of 1,438,000. Single-family authorizations in February were at a rate of 1,143,000; this is 10.0 percent (±0.8 percent) below the revised January figure of 1,270,000. Authorizations of units in buildings with five units or more were at a rate of 495,000 in February. [link to report] Here is the complete historical series, which dates from 1960. Because of the extreme volatility of the monthly data points, a 6-month moving average has been included. Here is the data with a simple population adjustment. The Census Bureau's mid-month population estimates show substantial growth in the US population since 1960. Here is a chart of housing starts as a percent of the population. We've added a linear regression through the monthly data to highlight the trend. The extreme volatility of this monthly indicator is the rationale for paying more attention to its 6-month moving average than to its noisy monthly change. Over the complete data series, the absolute MoM average percent change is 4.4%. The MoM range minimum is -24.0% and the maximum is 33.9%.
February declines in housing permits and starts: another likely effect of the Big Texas Freeze - Housing is an important long leading indicator. What we see now in mortgage applications, new home sales, permits and starts is informative of what the economy will be like 12+ months from now in 2022. The headline numbers for both permits and starts for February, released this morning, were both poor, off -10.8% and -10.3%, respectively. The temptation is to say, “higher interest rates, We’re DOOOMED!!!” Not so fast. In context, the declines were well within normal month to month variation, and at least some of the declines looks like more fallout from the Big Texas Freeze that we saw yesterday in industrial production and retail sales. Here is the headline graph covering the last 5 years for both starts (blue) and permits (red): Two things are of interest here: (1) note that starts fell much more than permits, similar to what happened in the last two winters; and (2) while typically permits lead starts by a month or two, this decline in starts began *before* permits. Neither of these facts are conclusive, of course, but they do suggest an external reason for the pattern - e.g., an outsized winter “event” in February. I’ve also separated out the South Census Region that includes Texas from both permits and starts in the other three Census Regions (Northeast, Midwest, West) combined in the below two graphs. First, here’s permits: Note that while both declined, the Southern region had the bigger one. Now, here’s starts: Again, note the outsized declines in the other three regions including both northern ones in the last two winters, that hasn’t occurred this year. Put another way, the decline in the South, including Texas, was a *relatively* outsized one. Finally, here is the above regional data for starts shown as a month over month % change: As I wrote above, February’s declines are hardly noteworthy as monthly declines from the perspective of monthly changes in the past five years. And the February decline in starts in the South this year is bigger than that of the other three regions combined, unlike the last several winters. I don’t want to oversell this, because the above information is hardly conclusive. But all of this information suggests that, while interest rates most likely did affect at least permits in February, the bigger reason for the relatively big declines in permits and starts was the closure of government offices and inability to undertake new construction in Texas and other nearby areas affected by the Big Freeze.
NAHB: Builder Confidence Decreased to 82 in March - The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) reported the housing market index (HMI) was at 82, down from 84 in February. Any number above 50 indicates that more builders view sales conditions as good than poor. From the NAHB: Higher Material Costs, Interest Rates Lower Builder Sentiment: Despite high buyer traffic and strong demand, builder sentiment fell in March as rising lumber and other material prices pushed builder confidence lower. The latest National Association of Home Builders (NAHB)/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) shows that builder confidence in the market for newly built single-family homes fell two points to 82 in March.Though builders continue to see strong buyer traffic, recent increases for material costs and delivery times, particularly for softwood lumber, have depressed builder sentiment this month. Supply shortages and high demand have caused lumber prices to jump about 200 percent since last April.Builder confidence peaked at a level of 90 last November and has trended lower as supply-side and demand-side factors have trimmed housing affordability. While single-family home building should grow this year, the elevated price of lumber is adding approximately $24,000 to the price of a new home. And mortgage interest rates, while historically low, have increased about 30 basis points over the last month. Nonetheless, the lack of resale inventory means new construction is the only option for some prospective home buyers....The HMI index gauging current sales conditions fell three points to 87 while the component measuring sales expectations in the next six months increased three points to 83. The gauge charting traffic of prospective buyers held firm at 72.Looking at the three-month moving averages for regional HMI scores, the Northeast rose two points to 80, the Midwest fell one point to 80, the South dropped two points to 82 and the West posted a three-point loss to 90. This graph show the NAHB index since Jan 1985.This was slightly below the consensus forecast, but still a very strong reading.Housing and homebuilding have been one of the best performing sectors during the pandemic.
Hotels: Occupancy Rate Highest in a Year; Down 26% Compared to Same Week in 2019 -- Note: Starting this week, the year-over-year comparisons are easy - since occupancy declined sharply at the onset of the pandemic - but occupancy is still down significantly from normal levels.The occupancy rate is down 25.8% compared to the same week in 2019. Kelsey Fenerty at CoStar also suggests comparing to 2019: Indexing to 2019 Provides Better Hotel Performance Comparisons From CoStar: STR: US Occupancy Reaches Highest Level in a Year With Pandemic Comparisons: U.S. weekly hotel occupancy reached its highest level in a year, according to STR‘s latest data through March 13.March 7-13, 2021 (percentage change from comparable week in 2020):
• Occupancy: 52.1% (-1.4%)
• Average daily rate (ADR): US$102.62 (-14.5%)
• Revenue per available room (RevPAR): US$53.45 (-15.8%)
Year-over-year percentage changes are now more favorable as comparisons have shifted to pandemic-affected weeks from 2020. When indexed against 2019 levels, the U.S. has recaptured between 70-75% of occupancy in recent weeks.Florida, lifted by Spring Break and Bike Week, was most represented among the leaders in week-to-week occupancy gains. The following graph shows the seasonal pattern for the hotel occupancy rate using the four week average. The red line is for 2021, black is 2020, blue is the median, and dashed light blue is for 2009 (the worst year since the Great Depression for hotels prior to 2020). Even when occupancy increases to 2009 levels, hotels will still be hurting.
Las Vegas Visitor Authority: No Convention Attendance, Visitor Traffic Down 64% YoY in January - From the Las Vegas Visitor Authority: January 2021 Las Vegas Visitor Statistics Continued COVID impacts and the resulting absence of conventions and major tradeshows such as CES, World of Concrete, etc., translated to significant YoY declines in Jan visitation, occupancy and ADR. Las Vegas hosted roughly 1.3M visitors in Jan 2021, down -63.5% YoY.Total occupancy for Jan improved MoM to 31.6% from 30.9% in Dec but was down from 85.9% in Jan 2020. While Weekend occupancy (48.3%) improved slightly MoM over Dec 2020, the temporarily dormant convention segment resulted in Midweek occupancy at 22.5%, down -61.3 pts YoY. Average daily rates among open properties reached $90.71 (down -40.9% YoY) while RevPAR came in at approx. $28.66, down -78% vs. Jan 2020.The first graph shows visitor traffic for 2019 (blue), 2020 (orange) and 2021 (red).Visitor traffic was down 63.5% year-over-year.The casinos started to reopen on June 4th (it appears about 97% of rooms have now opened).Convention traffic was non-existent again in January, and was down 100% compared to January 2020. There has been no convention traffic since March 2020.
Retail Sales Decreased 3.0% in February - On a monthly basis, retail sales decreased 3.0 percent from January to February (seasonally adjusted), and sales were up 6.3 percent from February 2020. From the Census Bureau report: Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for February 2021, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $561.7 billion, a decrease of 3.0 percent from the previous month, and 6.3 percent above February 2020. This graph shows retail sales since 1992. This is monthly retail sales and food service, seasonally adjusted (total and ex-gasoline). Retail sales ex-gasoline were down 3.5% in February. The second graph shows the year-over-year change in retail sales and food service (ex-gasoline) since 1993. Retail and Food service sales, ex-gasoline, increased by 7.0% on a YoY basis. The decrease in February was well below expectations, however sales in January were revised up.
US Retail Sales Collapse In February, Online Sales Plunge - After the huge surge in January, analysts expected retail sales to shrink MoM in February (and BofA's credit card data signaled a disaster) and it did - by far more than consensus expected. Retail sales tumbled 3.0% MoM in Feb, far more than the 0.5% drop expected and the biggest drop since April's collapse... The Control Group - which is used for GDP - plunged 3.5% Source: Bloomberg There appear to be three reasons for huge retail sales miss: 1. payback from the stimulus-induced gain in January; 2. delayed tax refunds; 3. Winter blizzard. Interestingly, non-store retailer sales plunged 5.4%... All categories were down except food and beverage (unch) and Gas Stations (+3.6%)
US Drivers Burning More Gas -- After a year of getting pummeled by the coronavirus, U.S. oil demand is bouncing back -- and this time it looks like it’s here to stay. Retail gasoline sales rose last week to just 1% below year-ago levels, just before regional lockdowns brought fuel consumption to a crawl, Patrick DeHaan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy said on Twitter. Gasoline’s recovery comes on top of a diesel rebound that started last fall as consumers began to rely on home-delivery services like Amazon.com Inc. more than ever. Even jet fuel is looking up with newly vaccinated passengers eager to fly after a year of restrictions. With new coronavirus infections falling to a record low last week and vaccination efforts ramping up, this latest demand rebound comes with a lower threat of being set back again by new outbreaks. The timing couldn’t be better for the oil industry that relies on the busy summer driving season to buoy profits. It could mark a huge turnaround for fuel suppliers that since last spring had struggled with the weakest seasonal consumption in more than 20 years. Demand “will continue to improve with warmer weather and reopenings and things getting back to normal, coupled with pent-up demand,” said Trisha Curtis, chief executive officer at oil analysts PetroNerds in Denver. “We definitely see some bright spots with vaccine uptake.” The drag on jet fuel is showing signs of cracking. Air passenger numbers hit a 12-month high on Friday. Global seat capacity has improved to 39% below a year ago, compared with an annual deficit of 41% a week earlier, and 44% the week before that, data from air traffic consultant OAG Aviation shows. That’s happening as newly vaccinated Americans are preparing to take to the skies again for summer vacations. Green shoots are emerging elsewhere as well. Industrial output in China surged in the first two months of the year, underscoring its rapid economic rebound. The country processed more than 14 million barrels a day of crude in the first two months of the year. Still, the recovery is just beginning. Restrictions on schools and businesses vary regionally. One-off events can also hamper the rebound, such as last weekend’s blizzard in Colorado and Wyoming that triggered power outages and forced flight cancellations. Many businesses, including BP Plc, will allow office staff to continue to work from home two days a week, throwing into question if U.S. gasoline demand will see a full recovery this year.
Gasoline demand rebounds to nearly normal March levels, according to latest GasBuddy data - U.S. gasoline demand is approaching normal levels as Americans once again hit the road amid the economic recovery and the Covid-19 vaccine rollout. Demand is just about at normal March levels and continues to tick higher, according to the latest data from GasBuddy. Thursday's demand was 17.5% higher than the average of the four prior Thursdays. "It's been an impressive rebound in the last few weeks of demand and I continue to be surprised every day," noted Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy. He said that apart from one Sunday, every day since Feb. 20 has seen positive percentage growth. There are many factors that drive gas demand, of course, one of which could be people driving long distances for Covid-19 vaccines. Spring break could also be a driving force. The data showed that demand this past Thursday was 1.8% higher than the final Thursday before Covid lockdowns went into effect in 2020. The data is not seasonally adjusted, however, and February does tend to be the weakest month for gas demand. More consumers hitting the road combined with a draw in gasoline stocks has led to a jump in prices. "On average, Americans are paying 14% more to fill-up compared to February," Jeanette McGee, AAA spokesperson, said in a statement Monday. "With increased demand and tighter gasoline supplies, we are looking at more expensive pump prices with little relief in the weeks ahead." On Friday the national average for a gallon of gas stood at $2.886, up 69 cents or 31.4% from a year ago, according to AAA.
China books 1.16 mil mt of US corn, first big flash sale in weeks | S&P Global Platts — Chinese buyers booked 1.16 million mt of US corn for delivery in the 2020-21 marketing season, the first such large daily flash sale reported since January, the US Department of Agriculture said March 16. This takes China's total commitments for US corn to a record 19.89 million mt in 2020-21. The US corn 2020-21 marketing year started in September 2020 and will run through August 2021. Of the total commitments, China has so far shipped in 7.41 million mt, also a record. The last time China bought US corn in such quantities was in 2012-13 when US corn shipments to China hit 5.15 million mt, according to USDA data. USDA reports export sales data on a weekly basis, while daily flash sales are only reported when sales of a commodity cross a specific threshold. For corn, export activity must be reported if daily sales are above 100,000 mt. The last such large daily sales of US corn were reported Jan. 29, when China booked 2.11 million mt of corn. The sales followed just after a day when exporters reported corn sales of 1.7 million mt to China. The US corn export shipment program has remained steady, but grain markets were looking for more large sales for direction after lackluster sales to China seen in recent weeks. US corn inspections for global destinations hit 2.20 million mt in the week to March 11, the largest since 1989, according to the USDA. Meanwhile, markets have been largely focusing on the weather in South America as various analysts report record production numbers in the midst of growing concerns around low yields. Corn crop conditions have dropped in Argentina, while planting of the second corn crop in Brazil has been delayed.
LA Area Port Traffic: Strong Imports, Weak Exports in February -- Note1: Import traffic was heavy in February - ships were backed up waiting to unload in LA. "some vessels are spending almost as much time at anchor as it takes to traverse the Pacific Ocean." Container traffic gives us an idea about the volume of goods being exported and imported - and usually some hints about the trade report since LA area ports handle about 40% of the nation's container port traffic. The following graphs are for inbound and outbound traffic at the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach in TEUs (TEUs: 20-foot equivalent units or 20-foot-long cargo container). To remove the strong seasonal component for inbound traffic, the first graph shows the rolling 12 month average. On a rolling 12 month basis, inbound traffic was up 3.0% in February compared to the rolling 12 months ending in January. Outbound traffic was down 1.3% compared to the rolling 12 months ending the previous month. The 2nd graph is the monthly data (with a strong seasonal pattern for imports). Usually imports peak in the July to October period as retailers import goods for the Christmas holiday, and then decline sharply and bottom in February or March depending on the timing of the Chinese New Year. Imports were up 52% YoY in February, and exports were down 15% YoY.
Taibbi Asks: Without Trump, Is A "Depression In Television" Coming? -Variety just published a graph that should horrify cable news executives:This data, showing significant declines in all of the major primetime cable news shows, came in a piece called, “Cable News Ratings Begin To Suffer Trump Slump.” Gavin Bridge of the Variety Intelligence Platform explained:VIP has previously covered the initial ratings decline Fox News, MSNBC and, most of all, CNN, saw in President Biden’s first week, as the nonstop controversies of the previous administration slowed down.Our prediction that audiences would perk up for President Trump’s second impeachment trial proved correct. But in the weeks after the trial ended, audiences for CNN have plummeted; MSNBC is seeing about half CNN’s drop, while Fox News is down single digits.It’s natural for news audiences to dip after seismic events like the January 6th riots. CNN had its best month ever in January, and individual shows like Anderson Cooper 360 jumped above 5 million viewers.Still, Variety’s report showing significant ratings drops as we move farther away from the Trump experience is both predictable and fascinating. It’s not clear how media executives will respond to losing the best friend they ever had. They will either have to surrender to the idea of significant long-term losses — impossible to imagine — or find a way to continue an all-time blockbuster entertainment franchise, which doubled as the most divisive public relations campaign in our history, without the show’s main character.Trump transformed news into a ratings Krakatoa, combining the side-against-side drama of sports programming with the amphetamine urgency of breaking news. Moreover, the Democratic Party’s response to Trump — which involved multiple efforts to remove him, premised on the idea that every day he spent in the Oval Office was an existential threat to humanity — allowed stations to turn every day of the Trump years into a baby-down-a-well story (the baby was democracy). Between the Mueller investigation, two impeachments, the Kavanaugh confirmation, multiple border crises, the “Treason in Helsinki” fiasco, and a hundred other tales, every day could be pitched as a drop-everything emergency. Add the partisan rooting angle, and you had ratings gold. Imagine three or four dozen Super Bowls a year, each one played in the middle of a category 5 hurricane, and you come close to grasping the magnitude of the gift that Donald Trump was to MSNBC, Fox, and CNN.
Patent System Often Stifles the Innovation It Was Designed to Encourage - The patent system works by enabling inventors to block unauthorized use of patented technology.Most technologies are developed by many inventors over many years, a process called“cumulative” innovation. Too often, however, early inventors get a patent on a small and perhaps insignificant piece of the technological puzzle, yet their patent covers the entire puzzle. Inventors who solve subsequent parts of the puzzle may need to pay royalties to the patentee, even if their contributions are larger.As legal experts who focus on technology law and policy, we suggest that the problem boils down to two issues: too many patents and too little accurate information about them. The U.S. is awash in patents. Over 350,000 U.S. patents were granted in 2019, four times the per capita rate in 1980. From the perspective of research managers at big firms, patents are cheap and easy to get. For example, in the early 2000s Bill Gates decided that Microsoft was patent-poor, and within a few years the company increased annual patent applications by 50%.Patents are easy to get because the standards of patentability are low and because the burden is on the U.S. Patent and Trademark Office to prove an invention is not patentable. Patent examination is slow. It often takes three years or more. Despite increased staffing, the backlog of patent applications has continued to grow, and examiners spend on average only 20 hours reviewing each application. The patent examiner is required to read and understand the invention in an application, determine whether the invention meets the claims of the application, search existing technology to see if the invention already exists and write a response to the application.Helter-skelter examination causes errors – many patents are too broad, or they cover obvious inventions. To draw attention to problems caused by the flood of low-quality patents, billionaire entrepreneur Mark Cuban endowed a chair at the Electronic Frontier Foundation dedicated to elimination of “stupid patents.”Innovative firms that succeed in assembling many pieces of a technology puzzle into a finished product must consult with a patent lawyer to learn whether their new technology is covered by one or more patents owned by others. Ideally an innovator will get permission to use patented technology, usually for a fee, or redesign its technology to steer clear of relevant patents. In practice this patent “clearance” process is difficult, costly and sometimes impossible. For technologies like smartphones, a patent attorney likely would need to review hundreds of patents, including many patents that are not granted until long after the new product is launched. Failure to license relevant patents creates a risk of litigation and the threat the new technology could be forced out of the marketplace.
Industrial Production Decreased 2.2 Percent in February - From the Fed: Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization:In February, total industrial production decreased 2.2 percent. Manufacturing output and mining production fell 3.1 percent and 5.4 percent, respectively; the output of utilities increased 7.4 percent. The severe winter weather in the south central region of the country in mid-February accounted for the bulk of the declines in output for the month. Most notably, some petroleum refineries, petrochemical facilities, and plastic resin plants suffered damage from the deep freeze and were offline for the rest of the month. Excluding the effects of the winter weather would have resulted in an index for manufacturing that fell about 1/2 percent and in an index for mining that rose about 1/2 percent. Both indexes would have remained below their pre-pandemic (February 2020) levels. At 104.7 percent of its 2012 average, total industrial production in February was 4.2 percent lower than its year-earlier level. Capacity utilization for the industrial sector decreased 1.7 percentage points in February to 73.8 percent, a rate that is 5.8 percentage points below its long-run (1972–2020) average. This graph shows Capacity Utilization. This series is up from the record low set in April, but still below the level in February 2020. Capacity utilization at 73.8% is 5.8% below the average from 1972 to 2020. 
The second graph shows industrial production since 1967. Industrial production decreased in February to 104.7. This is 4.2% below the February 2020 level. The change in industrial production was below consensus expectations.
Big (weather related) declines in February production and sales --This morning we got the most important single metrics for both the consumer and producer side of the economy for February, respectively, retail sales and industrial production. Both were big misses, one explicitly and the other likely due to the big freeze in Texas and neighboring States. Let’s turn to production first. Total industrial production declined by -2.2% in February, while manufacturing production declined -3.1%. Both of these were the first declines of any significance since last April: Before the DOOOMERS go screaming, “Double-dip!” however, here is the what the Fed itself had to say about this report: The severe winter weather in the south central region of the country in mid-February accounted for the bulk of the declines in output for the month. Most notably, some petroleum refineries, petrochemical facilities, and plastic resin plants suffered damage from the deep freeze and were offline for the rest of the month. Excluding the effects of the winter weather would have resulted in an index for manufacturing that fell about 1/2 percent and in an index for mining that rose about 1/2 percent. Because manufacturing is the biggest component of the report, even without the Big Texas Freeze the total index probably would have declined, but by something less than -0.5%. Since in January the total index rose a revised 1.1%, the combined January-February number would still be positive, and the highest since the onset of the pandemic last March. A similar dynamic was present in the retail sales report, although the Census Bureau explicitly does not take weather into account. Nominal retail sales declined -3.0%. After adjusting by the CPI, real retail sales declined -3.4%. Here’s what the last 2.5 years including February look like: Of course winter occurs every year, but if and when a particularly bad stretch happens might be in December one year, January another, and February still another. So the below graph shows the unadjusted as well as the seasonally adjusted percentage change each month for the same time period. Note that January and February each year, combined, show the steepest month over month decline: If you look at the unadjusted numbers, it’s pretty clear that January this year had the least decline of the last 5 years, while February’s was the worst. So the below lists the combined January + February declines for the previous 5 years and compares them with this year: Of the 5 previous years, only 2020 was better than this year. On a seasonally adjusted basis, the combined January-February period this year still showed a gain of 3.7% from December, which would be the highest total since the pandemic started. In conclusion, don’t sweat these two declines. Ex-the Big Texas Freeze, both production and sales probably did decline, but only slightly, and real retail sales for the two month period combined absolutely rose.
Plastic Prices Hit Record High to Stoke Inflation Concerns – - For anyone looking for examples of inflation these days, raw materials are a good place to start. Copper, steel -- even lumber -- are either near or at record highs. And so too are plastics, which are often overlooked but are on a tear right now. Although they’re the building blocks of thousands of everyday products, plastics and their chemical ingredients don’t trade on major commodity exchanges, and large price moves are largely invisible to the wider world. Yet polyvinyl chloride, or PVC, is in the midst of a dramatic rally, driven by a combination of rebounding global consumer demand and production outages from last month’s Texas freeze. More than 60% of U.S. PVC is still offline nearly a month after freezing weather hit Texas and Louisiana and decimated the power grid, according to ICIS, a data provider. U.S. export prices have nearly doubled to a record high of $1,625 a tonne over the past year. PVC is a major construction material used for pipes, cable insulation, flooring and roofing, and the U.S. has become the world’s biggest exporter of the plastic in recent years. But PVC is just the tip of the iceberg: prices of polypropylene, used for packaging consumer goods, are at record levels and more than double the 2019-2020 average, according to ICIS. The cost of high density polyethylene, used for shampoo bottles and grocery bags, is at the highest since 2008. “Today we don’t have enough volume to even meet the needs of the domestic customers” never mind exports, said Bob Patel, chief executive officer of chemicals giant LyondellBasell Industries NV, referring to polyethylene. “I think we’ll be well into the fourth quarter before we see conditions back to normal,” he told the JPMorgan Industrials Conference this week. Even before the freeze, the industry was struggling to rebound from back-to-back hurricanes last year, meaning the supply shortfalls will have knock-on effects both domestically and around the world, not least in a housebuilding sector already under pressure from skyrocketing lumber prices. The supply constraints also come just as the U.S. government is unleashing a new round of stimulus and demand for consumer goods is surging, adding to concerns around higher inflation. The bottlenecks are already becoming evident in plastics. Honda Motor Co. and Toyota Motor Corp. are reducing production of vehicles across North America due in part to the shortage of petrochemicals in their supply chains, the Japanese car giants said this week. Production lines and potentially entire plants are expected to be temporarily halted for several days in Kentucky, West Virginia and Mexico, Toyota spokeswoman Shiori Hashimoto said Wednesday. Petrochemicals account for more than a third of the raw material costs in the average vehicle, according to ICIS. The car industry is also struggling due to a shortage of semiconductors.
Philly Fed Mfg Index: Continued Strength in March - The Philly Fed's Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey is a monthly report for the Third Federal Reserve District, covers eastern Pennsylvania, southern New Jersey, and Delaware. While it focuses exclusively on business in this district, this regional survey gives a generally reliable clue as to the direction of the broader Chicago Fed's National Activity Index.The latest Manufacturing Index came in at 51.8, up 28.7 from last month's 23.1. The 3-month moving average came in at 33.8, up from 19.6 last month. Since this is a diffusion index, negative readings indicate contraction, positive ones indicate expansion. The Six-Month Outlook came in at 61.6, up 22.1 from the previous month's 39.5.The 51.8 headline number came in above the 23.0 forecast at Investing.com.Here is the introduction from the survey:Manufacturing conditions in the region strengthened further this month, according to firms responding to the MarchManufacturing Business Outlook Survey. The indicators for general activity and new orders rose sharply, and the shipments and employment indexes also increased. Price pressures also rose, according to the surveyed firms. All of the survey’s indexes for future conditions increased, as the firms indicated more widespread optimism about growth over the next six months. (Full Report) The first chart below gives us a look at this diffusion index since 2000, which shows us how it has behaved in proximity to the two 21st century recessions. The red dots show the indicator itself, which is quite noisy, and the 3-month moving average, which is more useful as an indicator of coincident economic activity. We can see periods of contraction in 2011, 2012, and 2015, and a shallower contraction in 2013. The contraction due to COVID-19 is clear in 2020.
Union warns Ohio workers that Ford plans to move new vehicle construction to Mexico -United Auto Workers (UAW) warned Ford employees in Ohio that the company plans to move the construction of a new vehicle to Mexico, according to a letter made public this week. UAW Vice President Gerald Kariem addressed a letter to Ford workers in Avon Lake, Ohio, in which he accused the automaker of violating a contract agreement with the union with its plans to build a next-generation vehicle in Mexico instead of the Ohio Assembly Plant (OHAP). The letter, sent with the union’s letterhead, cited a 2019 four-year contract deal in which Ford committed $900 million for the assembly plant in Avon Lake, including adding production for a next-generation product in 2023. The UAW said the agreement would secure the assembly plant's “employment well into the foreseeable future” but that Ford “has decided it will not honor its promise.” “Ford management expects us to just hang our heads and accept the decision,” Kariem wrote in the letter dated Friday. “But let me be clear, we are making a different choice.” “We 100% reject the company’s decision to put corporate greed and more potential profits over American jobs and the future of our members,” he continued. “We expect the company to honor its contractual commitments to this membership and when it fails to do so we will take action.” Kariem wrote that the union has made data requests for an explanation of the decision, but the automaker has only given “strategically limited information.” “We are intensely exploring our options at this time,” he wrote in the letter that copied UAW President Rory Gamble and the union’s two top lawyers. In response to UAW’s letter, Ford plant manager Jason Moore released a letter to Avon Lake workers obtained by The Hill, noting that the 2019 agreement included a “reference to a $900 million investment and a new product for OHAP.” “While conditions upon which the 2019 Administrative Letter were based have changed, the Company is investing in the plant and increasing production of Super Duty trucks at OHAP," Moore wrote. The letter continued saying that the company has invested more than $185 million into the Avon Lake plant and retained 100 jobs there since 2019. Ford had announced in November that it intends to build another electric vehicle in Cuautitlan, Mexico, in addition to the Mustang Mach-E, Reuters reported. Kelli Felker, Ford global manufacturing and communications manager, declined to tell the Detroit Free Press whether Ford intends to keep its commitment to the Ohio plant, saying, "We are always looking at our options.”
Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims increased to 770,000 - The DOL reported: In the week ending March 13, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 770,000, an increase of 45,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 13,000 from 712,000 to 725,000. The 4-week moving average was 746,250, a decrease of 16,000 from the previous week's revised average. The previous week's average was revised up by 3,250 from 759,000 to 762,250. This does not include the 282,394 initial claims for Pandemic Unemployment Assistance (PUA) that was down from 478,914 the previous week. The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims since 1971.The dashed line on the graph is the current 4-week average. The four-week average of weekly unemployment claims decreased to 759,000.The previous week was revised up.Regular state continued claims decreased to 4,124,000 (SA) from 4,142,000 (SA) the previous week and will likely stay at a high level until the crisis abates.Note: There are an additional 7,615,386 receiving Pandemic Unemployment Assistance (PUA) that decreased from 8,387,969 the previous week (there are questions about these numbers). This is a special program for business owners, self-employed, independent contractors or gig workers not receiving other unemployment insurance. And an additional 4,815,348 receiving Pandemic Emergency Unemployment Compensation (PEUC) down from 5,456,080. Weekly claims were higher than the consensus forecast.
BLS: January Unemployment rates down in 33 States - From the BLS: Regional and State Employment and Unemployment Summary: Unemployment rates were lower in January in 33 states and the District of Columbia and stable in 17 states, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Forty-eight states and the District had jobless rate increases from a year earlier and two states had little change. The national unemployment rate, 6.3 percent, fell by 0.4 percentage point over the month, but was 2.8 points higher than in January 2020. Nonfarm payroll employment increased in 20 states, decreased in 2 states, and was essentially unchanged in 28 states and the District of Columbia in January 2021. Over the year, nonfarm payroll employment decreased in 48 states and the District and was essentially unchanged in 2 states. ... Hawaii and California had the highest unemployment rates in January, 10.2 percent and 9.0 percent, respectively, while South Dakota and Utah had the lowest rates, 3.1 percent each. Hawaii is being impacted by the lack of tourism.
Wages are still too low in H-2B occupations: Updated wage rules could ensure labor standards are protected and migrants are paid fairly - EPI Blog - Last week, I wrote about how the U.S. Department of Homeland Security (DHS) and the U.S. Department of Labor (DOL) are now considering increasing the number of H-2B visas in response to businesses claiming that there are labor shortages in H-2B industries—a claim which unemployment data reveal is false. A related and essential issue to this discussion is the prevailing wage rules that undergird the H-2B program, which exist for the purpose of establishing a minimum, legally required wage that jobs must be advertised at in the United States when recruiting U.S. workers—a requirement before employers can access the H-2B program—in order to determine if there’s a labor shortage. The purpose of the H-2B prevailing wage requirement is also to safeguard U.S. wage standards in H-2B occupations and protect migrant workers from being legally underpaid through visa regulations.In most cases, since 2015, the DOL’s H-2B wage methodology has required that employers advertise H-2B jobs to U.S. workers at the local average wage for the specific occupation and pay their H-2B employees that wage—according to data from the DOL’s Occupational Employment Statistics (OES) survey. While at first glance this appears to be a reasonable wage rule, in practice, the available evidence makes clear that the H-2B wage rule is undercutting wage standards at the national level in H-2B occupations and is therefore not consistent with the law establishing the H-2B program. To illustrate, see Table 1 below which shows the top 15 H-2B occupations in fiscal year 2019 by Standard Occupational Classification code, according to the number of H-2B jobs certified by DOL. For context, the top 15 H-2B occupations accounted for 84% of all certified H-2B jobs in 2019. The column to the right of the number of certified jobs is the nationwide average hourly wage for all certified H-2B workers in each of the occupations, according to DOL disclosure data. To the right of that are the 2019 average hourly wage rates for all workers in the occupation nationwide, according to the DOL’s OES survey, which is used to set H-2B wage rates, making it an apples-to-apples comparison. (2019 data were used for H-2B and OES because 2020 OES data are not yet available for comparison.) The final two columns show the difference between the average hourly certified H-2B wage and the average hourly OES wage for all workers in the entire country—the dollar amount and in percentage terms. In other words, these numbers reveal the amounts by which certified H-2B wages are undercutting national-level wage standards in H-2B occupations.
Up To Two-Thirds Of Entry-Level Tech Jobs Go To Foreign Guest-Workers From Unranked Colleges --A new report from Bloomberg reveals that up to two-thirds of entry-level tech jobs go to foreign guest workers from low-ranked colleges who don't dare complain about long work long hours and low wages lest they destroy their chances of a green card - as opposed to hiring debt-laden American graduates willing to grind just as hard, yet have no such immigration leverage to exploit.According to the report, the United States in 2018 had "between 96,000 and 143,000 openings in IT occupations that typically went to candidates with a bachelor’s degree or higher in computer science or engineering."Meanwhile, the government grants annual "Occupational Practical Training" (OPT) work permits to hundreds of thousands of foreigners attending American universities - while also inviting roughly 85,000 foreign graduates to reside and work in the United States on H-1B work visas.In total, "OPT participants accounted for anywhere from one-third to one-half of new hires. If you add H-1B candidates, up to two-thirds of openings went to guest workers," reads the report, which Breitbart News' Neil Munro notes relies heavily on Rutgers University high-tech employment expert, Hal Salzman.When it comes to education, few OPT workers attended ranked colleges. "More than 70% of nonresident computer science master’s degrees awarded in 2018 came from unranked programs, or those ranked 50 and lower by U.S. News and World Report. Just 17% came from schools ranked in the top 25. [universities]."Breitbart News has extensively reported on the fraud-ridden OPT program — and its sister program, the Curricular Practical Training program — which provides Fortune 500 companies with roughly 400,000 cheap foreign workers each year.The OPTs — and the many similar H-1B, L-12, J-1, and TN visa workers — fill many starter-jobs and mid-career white-collar jobs in a wide variety of industry sectors, including tech, healthcare, academia, accounting, and design.Few of the OPT workers complain about their lower-wage jobs because their CEOs can fire them at will. -
New York City Lost a Record 631,000 Jobs to the Pandemic in 2020. So What’s Next? - The statisticians closed the books Thursday on the jobs lost in New York City in 2020: 631,000, the largest one-year decline since reliable statistics began being compiled after World War II. The damage has been so great that local experts on the city’s economy see a difficult effort over several years to regain those positions, whose loss has brought pain to legions on top of a COVID-19 death toll that just passed 30,000, hitting the most vulnerable New Yorkers hardest. The economic impact has also proved disparate, with sectors like tourism upended, even as Wall Street prospers. Predictions for the city’s long-term and short-term prospects, meanwhile, are in flux as news of vaccination progress mixes with a host of unknowns. Still, the passage of President Joe Biden’s $1.9 trillion federal aid bill — dubbed the American Rescue Act — has other economists sharply raising their forecasts of how much the national economy will grow this year. Mayor Bill de Blasio and some local executives agree. “This now supercharges our recovery,” the mayor said Monday as passage of the bill seemed certain. “This is the thing we needed.” The single-year plunge in employment, measured from December 2019 to December 2020, is more than the 620,000 jobs that disappeared in the city’s “Great Recession” that lasted from 1969 to 1977 under mayors John Lindsay and Abe Beame. The severe downturn following the 1987 stock market crash totaled 350,000 jobs lost. And jobs dipped by 227,000 in 2001-2003 after the dot.com bubble burst and 9/11. The city brushed off the Great Recession that followed the 2008 Financial Crisis with a relatively modest decline of 138,000 jobs. Like the 1969-1977 crisis, one sector accounts for a significant portion of the losses. Then it was manufacturing, which shed 400,000 jobs. This time it is leisure and hospitality — which includes the food and lodging industries — that has seen 250,000 jobs disappear, a little more than half of those that existed at the beginning of 2020. By total jobs lost, the other hard-hit areas include professional and business services (89,000), education and health services (69,800) and retail (67,100). In percentage terms, leisure and hospitality is followed by manufacturing, transportation and retail.
Maryland’s Republican governor issues order dropping majority of state’s COVID-19 restrictions - Last Tuesday, Maryland’s Republican Governor Larry Hogan announced the issuing of an executive order lifting most restrictions put in place a year ago in response to the COVID-19 pandemic. The order, which went into effect at 5 p.m. on Friday, is the most far-reaching reversal of social distancing measures in the mid-Atlantic region, which includes Maryland, Delaware, Washington D.C. and Virginia. The order allows restaurants, bars, retail businesses, gyms and religious establishments to operate at full capacity, and concert halls and arenas at half capacity. The order also lifted quarantine requirements for out of state travel. The official reason given by Hogan was that the state had managed to administer 1 million vaccine doses and has a declining daily case count. When the restrictions were first put in place, there were fewer than 1,000 active cases in Maryland. Since then, nearly 400,000 people have been infected, and almost a thousand people are being infected daily. While the number of new cases per day has declined sharply from the peak of over 3,200 in mid-January, this trend has stopped with the seven-day moving average hovering around 800 for the past three weeks. Overall, Maryland has had over 390,000 cases, and over 8,000 dead. One million vaccines represents less than a sixth of the state’s population, far short of what is necessary to prevent the spread of the virus. Hogan also admitted that the available national supply of vaccines will remain flat for at least two more weeks. The reopening order blindsided county officials who were not consulted before the decision. Montgomery County Council President Tom Hucker (Democrat-District 5) described the order as “shocking and reckless,” adding that it was “a complete slap in the face to local authority.” In the fall, Hogan intervened in the populous suburban Washington D.C. district to force private and religious schools to provide in-person learning, contravening his own health adviser’s rulings.
Billions of dollars are due at the end of the month; Kansas regulators to decide how much of it will hit your utility bills -You thought your natural gas bill was bad following last month’s arctic blast. Just try paying the one sitting on the desk at the Tulsa headquarters of One Gas Inc. One Gas is the parent company of Kansas Gas Service, one of the largest gas utilities in the state. To meet its customers’ gas needs during the polar vortex, the company spent $2.2 billion on natural gas purchases in February. That’s approximately four times more than the company spends on natural gas in an entire year. To put that another way, one nasty, approximately two-week weather event caused a company to make the equivalent of four years worth of natural gas purchases.Something stinks in the natural gas industry. “This whole episode should be giving the entire country a gut-check moment,” said David Springe, a consumer watchdog who leads the National Association of State Utility Consumer Advocates. “We should back up, look at our assumptions and look at how we have planned for the future.” Ultimately, consumers are likely to pay for that very high-priced gas. The numbers were nearly as eye-popping for several other natural gas utilities that serve Kansas. Atmos Energy, which has territory in parts of Douglas County, spent $2.5 billion in February, which was about three times its typical spend for an entire year. Black Hills Energy, which is the major gas provider for Lawrence, reported to Wall Street and state regulators that it had about $600 million of unexpected natural gas expenses for the month.
Illinois advocates, lawmakers look to restore regulatory oversight of gas utility surcharges - — Advocates and lawmakers have reintroduced legislation that would end a special gas utility surcharge that allows companies to raise customer bills in order to pay for infrastructure development with limited regulatory oversight.The gas utility surcharge, known as the Qualified Infrastructure Plant, became law in 2013 after similar formula rate legislation that benefited utility giant Commonwealth Edison was passed.House Bill 3941, sponsored by Rep. Joyce Mason, D-Gurnee, and accompanying Senate Bill 570, sponsored by Sen. Ram Villivalam, D-Chicago, would phase out the surcharge by the end of 2021. It is otherwise not set to expire in 2023. By ending the program, the legislation would restore traditional oversight of rate hikes. Advocates say the existing QIP charge allows for gas utility companies such as Ameren Illinois, Nicor Gas and Peoples Gas to bring in revenue at a faster pace than it would with traditional regulations.Before QIP was implemented, utility companies would spend money on their infrastructure and have to go before regulators that would approve the spending before the utility companies could start collecting it back from customers.Now with the surcharge in place, a company can begin collecting costs before having to justify the rate increases to regulators.“The costs have just gone out of control,” Abe Scarr, state director of Illinois Public Interest Research Group, said. “The utilities have incentive to spend as much money as they can because it's basically a guarantee that they'll get it back and guaranteed profits, and they like that. So, what we're seeing over time is these three utilities are spending way more money through this surcharge than was originally planned.”
For Entergy customers trying to dispute bills and get answers, 'it's hell,' they say - For more than a year, Brittany Ellis tried to find out why her Entergy New Orleans bills had suddenly soared at the Mid-City duplex where she lives and works. In January, she finally wrote to an obscure City Hall office that is supposed to act as a last resort for residents hoping to resolve disputes with their utilities, including Entergy: "After hours of calls with Entergy, emails to the mayor and numerous council members, and reaching out to the office of Alliance for Affordable Energy, I was directed to reach out to you as well - which I also did back in September without response." She went on to detail her year-long story of being led on a kind of endless circle dance - one that is familiar to many people who have sought to navigate large bureaucracies such as Entergy but can never seem to get a straight answer. Ellis's case predates the recent spate of customer outrage over sharp spikes in winter Entergy bills, which the utility put down to colder weather, high natural gas prices and various other causes. Instead, her experience reflects a more fundamental problem vexing many small businesses, retail customers and advocates such as the Alliance for Affordable Energy: Entergy's lack of transparency about inexplicable charges, high bills and poor service, and the lack of recourse available to ordinary people trying to resolve a dispute. Utility oversight has long been a thorny issue in the United States, which has a patchwork system that varies widely from state to state in terms of regulators' authority. The topic rose to the top of the public agenda after the recent winter freeze in the South, especially in Texas, where the near-collapse of the energy system already has led to the resignation of the Public Utilities Commission chairman, who in turn called on other energy company officials and politicians to resign. In Louisiana, the New Orleans City Council regulates Entergy New Orleans and the state Public Service Commission regulates Entergy Louisiana. Both have opened investigations into outages and billing related to the freeze. The council's Utilities Committee is set to meet Tuesday, where Entergy is expected to address recent outages. Both regulators have joined their counterparts in Arkansas in a complaint to the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission. It seeks, among other remedies, a refund of more than $70 million just for New Orleans customers, out of a total $361 million it estimates Entergy overcharged customers in the three jurisdictions from 2016 to 2020 for power from its Grand Gulf nuclear power plant. The complaint process is expected to take two to three years. However, none of the regulators' initiatives so far seeks explicitly to address the core problem that Ellis and many other customers face.
Texas diner will add $50 to bill of any patron who needs to be told to wear a mask. There's a new sign in the window of Legends Diner in Denton, Texas. It reads: "Our new surcharge. $50 if I have to explain why masks are mandatory" and "$75 if I have to hear why you disagree…"From Dallas News: Legends Diner joins hundreds if not thousands of restaurant owners in Dallas-Fort Worth who are continuing to wear masks and asking their customers to do the same. Our team of reporters found that customers and restaurant workers were mostly masked the day the mandate lifted in Texas.RESTAURANT NEWSThe LaCombes got the idea to hang the "surcharge" sign after seeing a shop in Oregon post its own sign. People have been "lining up to take pictures of it," Wayne said.So far, no one has been charged $50 or $75 for not complying with the Denton restaurant's mask rules. But he's ready to use it if he needs to.
Miami Beach declares state of emergency amid crowds of spring breakers - Miami Beach, Fla., declared a state of emergency Saturday over concern about large crowds of spring breakers gathering in the city. Miami Beach Mayor Dan Gelber (D) said during a news conference Saturday that new measures will be implemented that are “essentially purposed to reduce the number of people” coming to the area. Gelber announced an 8 p.m. curfew in the Entertainment District, and a restriction of east-bound traffic on city causeways that will only be accessible to residents and hotel guests. The measures go into effect at 9 p.m. Saturday, and will remain in effect for 72 hours. Gelber said he will hold an emergency meeting with the City Commission on Sunday to address the measures. The city later posted the emergency order to its Twitter account. According to the order, these actions are separate from those that the city has put in place to combat COVID-19. The news comes as photos from the area show crowds of people who have flocked to the city and gathered on its beaches, ignoring COVID-19 protocols. Miami Beach’s interim City Manager Raul Aguila said Saturday that he’s received emails from businesses that have voluntarily closed or don’t want to open due to the crowds. The state of emergency marks a point of escalation in the issue following reports of rowdy spring breakers this month. Gelber told CBS News that hundreds of spring breakers had been arrested for ignoring the city’s coronavirus guidelines, and that police officers had been injured trying to handle the crowds. “If you're coming here because you think anything goes, you're going to have a terrible time. We're going to arrest you. We've made hundreds and hundreds of arrests,” Gelber said at the time. Police had to disperse a crowd of about 200 spring breakers that were “unruly” and surrounding officers by an intersection by shooting pepper balls. The Miami Beach Police Department said at the time that several people were detained and two officers were injured.
Eight migrants killed in head-on crash during police chase in Texas - Eight Mexican migrants died on Monday afternoon when their pickup truck collided head-on with another vehicle during a high-speed chase involving state police on US Highway 277 in Val Verde County, Texas. The Associated Press (AP) reported that the Texas Department of Public Safety (DPS) said, “troopers were chasing a red Dodge pickup truck” after the driver of the pickup “refused to pull over for a traffic violation.” The collision with the Ford F-150 occurred approximately 30 miles north of Del Rio, Texas, a town of 35,000 people across the Rio Grande from Ciudad Acuña, Mexico. The AP reported that the driver and a child passenger in the Ford F-150 survived the crash and were hospitalized. One of the passengers in the Dodge pickup lived while the 24-year-old driver fled the scene on foot but was subsequently apprehended and booked by federal authorities. A spokesperson for the Texas DPS identified the driver as Sebastian Tovar. All of the deceased, seven men and one woman, were undocumented immigrants from Mexico between the ages of 18 and 20. The report did not specify what the alleged traffic violation was that prompted the high-speed chase. The horrific crash in Del Rio follows by two weeks a deadly collision in the Imperial Valley region of Southern California which claimed the lives of 13 people and injured many others when a semi-truck rammed into a Ford Explorer carrying two dozen passengers.
Schools without walls: Lessons in outdoor education - These students wandering through the woods on the outskirts of Portland, Oregon, aren't on a school field trip – this muddy field IS their school. From the moment they're dropped off in the morning, they spend their entire day outside in one of Oregon's public parks. "Rain or shine, we're out here," said teacher Christine Fleener. "Sometimes we build a shelter." On this surprisingly nice day, Fleener's class of fifth graders headed to a meadow for a biology lesson.She asked her students: "Why do you think it might be adaptive or beneficial to have widened pupils when you're stressed? Enid?""Like, it lets more light in so you can see more?" Enid replied.Further down the trail, a group of fourth graders is learning on logs. And on the banks of a small stream, the older kids are building a bridge to get from one side of their "classroom" to the other. One student, Brennan, said, "This is just really nice, because we're still doing, like, schoolwork and stuff. But then we get to do things like this, and fun projects.' It's school, just not the type of school you might be used to. Correspondent Conor Knighton said, "If I would've brought a knife to school, I would've gotten expelled. At your school, it's encouraged?" "Yeah, at our school, it is a tool, and it is seen as a tool," said Tony Deis, one of the founders of Trackers Earth Forest School. "Forest school is where the classroom does not have walls," he said. "It's how kids originally learned; they didn't learn sitting in desks, facing forward, looking at a teacher. They learned from a multi-sensory environment." Immersive outdoor forest schools are especially popular in Europe, but over the past decade they've gained traction in the United States. Most are geared toward younger students, from Tiny Trees preschool in Washington, to Wauhatchie Forest School in Tennessee. The idea is that the challenges that come with being outside all day – dealing with weather, building your own shelter, unearthing the unexpected – are all part of the learning process.
New York City moves to reopen high schools as dangerous COVID-19 variants spread - Nearly a year after educators forced New York City public schools to close by threatening to conduct wildcat sickout strikes as the coronavirus began its deadly spread, Democratic Mayor Bill de Blasio is moving forward with plans to resume in-person learning on March 22 at the district’s 488 high schools. The reopening occurs under conditions in which more transmissible variants of COVID-19 now make up the majority of active cases in the city. Well before de Blasio’s official announcement on March 8, the United Federation of Teachers (UFT) indicated that it is collaborating with the mayor in opening buildings to high school students. UFT president Michael Mulgrew told a meeting of the union’s Executive Board, “We are in conversations about high school openings. We have a formula and know how many people we need.” Mulgrew and the UFT apparently do not have a formula for how many educators, school staff, students and parents will become sick or die from exposure to the coronavirus in the coming weeks and months after being sent back to school buildings. To date, over 30,000 people in New York City have died from COVID-19, while the total number of cases stands at 773,306. As of Sunday, the seven-day average citywide test positivity rate was 6.4 percent and much higher in many working class neighborhoods. The positivity rate in Ozone Park in Queens, for example, was 12.6 percent. De Blasio’s senior adviser for public health, Dr. Jay Varma, announced on Wednesday that 51 percent of cases in the city were attributable to the B.1.1.7 and B.1.526, variants, first discovered in the United Kingdom and in the Manhattan neighborhood of Washington Heights, respectively. Varma said the city’s preliminary analysis suggests that B.1.526, spreads more quickly than the wild type of the virus, and that it may be similar in infectiousness to B.1.1.7, which has become the dominant variant throughout Europe in the past several months.
Chicago Teachers Union, school district announce plan to reopen high schools on April 19 - On Tuesday, Chicago Public Schools (CPS) officials informed parents and staff of district plans to reopen high schools for in-person classes beginning April 19, the first day of the fourth quarter term. The announcement was made in a message crafted with the close collaboration of Chicago Teachers Union (CTU) President Jesse Sharkey. Even with COVID-19 positivity rates and case numbers rising in the city again following the resumption of in-person learning in elementary schools and the lifting of restrictions on business activity, high schools are to be reopened in line with the demands of Mayor Lori Lightfoot, Illinois Governor J.B. Pritzker and President Biden. The message, jointly signed by CPS CEO Janice Jackson and Chief Education Officer LaTanya McDade, is aimed at drumming up support from parents for in-person schooling, among whom it is widely unpopular. Just 29 percent of elementary school parents have chosen the option to return to classrooms. Parents have until March 19 to make their decision about whether their children will attend in-person or continue learning remotely. Though K-8 students have been back since March, CPS have released no data on the actual number of students who have returned for in-person learning. Tuesday’s communication from the district leaders indicates that CPS is planning to bring back high school students “at least two days per week.” At two days per week, this would mean high school students, in exchange for putting themselves, their families and friends at risk of contracting the virus, would each experience a mere 18 days of in-person learning before the end of the school year in June. Jackson and McDade claim in their message, “Following the successful reopening of our elementary schools as well as new guidance from the Biden Administration that supports bringing students back to classrooms, we know we can safely resume in-person high school instruction as long as the right plan is in place.”
K-12 schools identified as largest source of COVID-19 infections in Illinois -Reopened schools in Chicago and throughout Illinois have become the largest source of COVID-19 infections in the state. Despite the demonstrated ability of schools to drive disease spread, school officials and politicians are aggressively pushing to get as many students as possible back into buildings for the fourth quarter term beginning April 19—just in time to fulfill the Biden administration’s promise to reopen schools in his first 100 days in office. According to contact tracing data from the Illinois Department of Public Health (IDPH), schools in Illinois are now the number one potential exposure location for COVID-19, accounting for 21.6 percent of cases reported to the state or local health departments. This is more than double the next-largest category, Business or Retail, which comes in at only 9.9 percent. Notably, this figure does not include colleges, universities or daycare facilities. Although there has been a mountain of propaganda from the media, schools and public health officials portraying in-person learning as low-risk or even safe, there have been 10 officially counted school outbreaks across the state, defined as five or more positive cases where exposure may have occurred on school grounds. Additionally, IDPH lists 1,099 schools with potential exposures, outside of Chicago Public Schools (CPS), which are not included in this total. For the week ending March 12, CPS reported 12 cases at 10 schools, sending 42 into quarantine, including four separate learning “pods.” These numbers are largely in line with data from other parts of the country and world. In Michigan, K-12 schools have also become the largest source of outbreaks, with childcare and youth programs coming in third. According to recent reports, Sweden shows a 123 percent increase in cases for children 0-9 and a 72 percent increase in children 10-19 since January. Underscoring the dangers involved in the pseudo-scientific “herd immunity” strategy in the context of a virus that can mutate, the more infectious B.1.1.7 variant now accounts for 50 percent of COVID-19 infections in Stockholm.
COVID-19 cases in Ohio schools nearly double in wake of forced reopenings -Between March 1 and March 7, reported COVID-19 cases among students and faculty in Ohio’s K-12 schools reached 3,058, nearly double the figure reported the previous week of 1,773 cases. The spike in cases came just two days before Republican Governor Mike DeWine’s March 9 false pronouncement that “victory is in sight” in the fight against the virus. Since January, DeWine has pushed for all Ohio schools to open no later than March 1. During the governor’s address held on the one-year anniversary of Ohio’s first COVID-19-related death, the governor officially named the date a “Day of Remembrance” to honor the 17,662 Ohioans who have lost their lives and the nearly one million who have tested positive in the last year. DeWine failed to mention whether March 9 is only meant to honor those who have already died or tested positive for COVID-19, or if it will also include those who will die or test positive now that schools have been forced open and all public safety measures are being lifted. Elementary school students in Godley, Texas, Wednesday, Aug. 5, 2020. (AP Photo/LM Otero) His speech was similar to the speech last week by Biden, who has pushed for a return to face-to-face learning across the country within his first 100 days in office. The reopening of schools has taken place amid the emergence of more contagious and deadly variants of COVID-19 and continued warnings by leading virologists that the US could be headed for a massive surge in cases. The governor has aggressively pressured districts to reopen schools, including through the manipulation of access to the vaccine. Without a district superintendent’s commitment to reopen full-time, in-person school by March 1, or at least have a plan in place to do so shortly thereafter, no Ohio public school employee would qualify for the vaccine in that district, except those already meeting the age or health requirements. A joint January letter to the governor’s office by the presidents of several state teachers unions, including Columbus Education Association, Cleveland Teachers Union, Cincinnati Federation of Teachers, Toledo Federation of Teachers, Akron Education Association, Dayton Education Association, Canton Professional Educators’ Association and Youngstown Educational Association—representing eight of Ohio’s top nine most populous cities and all but one with a Democratic mayor—decried DeWine’s methods, saying the governor “coerced” school reopenings. The letter stated, “We are disappointed that Governor DeWine has decided to use the distribution of a life-saving vaccine as a bargaining chip, holding this precious commodity hostage while pitting parents, administrators, teachers, and other school workers, and students against each other.” While issuing denunciations, the teachers unions refuse to mount any collective action by their members. Further, their letter goes on to downplay the significance of DeWine’s action, stating, “Luckily, schools don’t open up just because a Superintendent signs a letter; schools open when teachers, staff, and parents collectively decide it is safe to do so.”
More contagious strain of COVID-19 detected in Aspen student - — Pitkin County health and Aspen school officials are awaiting the results of roughly 30 to 35 COVID-19 tests given Friday to mostly lower-grade elementary students and two teachers to see if they are afflicted with a more contagious variant of the coronavirus. Pitkin County Public Health administered Friday’s tests after a student at the elementary school tested positive for what is suspected to be a variation of the coronavirus, resulting in the quarantine of two classes. The result is some 30 families with elementary school children are in quarantine, according to Superintendent David Baugh. The student is believed to have the B117 variant, which was first found in the U.K. in December. The student has symptoms but did not require hospitalization. The test from the student with the suspected variant will be further analyzed this weekend at a state lab for confirmation. The B117 strain is believed to transmit more easily — 30% to 35% higher, Pitkin County epidemiologist Josh Vance said Friday afternoon — but its long-term health risks remain unknown. It would be the first time a student at the district has been known to have a strain of the coronavirus; Pitkin County has one confirmed variant case so far, Vance said. That case is unrelated to the one at the school, he said.
CDC relaxes distance requirements in schools from 6 to 3 feet - The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention on Friday relaxed physical distancing requirements for children in school, from 6 feet to 3 feet — a change aimed at allowing more students to be inside classrooms.The recommendations come with a few caveats. Teachers and other adult school staff must still adhere to the 6 feet guidelines, and face coverings remain mandatory."These recommendations are specific to students in classrooms with universal mask wearing," CDC director Dr. Rochelle Walensky said during a briefing Friday.The change comes amid a massive push to get kids back in the classroom, from lawmakers to parents.Multiple studies have shown increases in depression and anxietyamong children during the pandemic. And a survey from NBC News and Challenge Success, a nonprofit affiliated with the Stanford Graduate School of Education, found lower stress levels among students who have been able to spend time in the classroom, compared with peers who are virtual learning exclusively. "The benefits of in-person instruction are well-recognized," Walensky said. "School should be the last place to close and the first place to open."For elementary school students, the CDC now recommends a physical distance of 3 feet. The same rules apply to middle and high school students, unless they live in an area where Covid-19 is spreading at a high rate, in which case distances of 6 feet should be maintained. And for all students, no matter the rate of community spread, distances of 6 feet should still be followed in settings where masks cannot be worn, such as lunchtime, the CDC said, as well as during activities like choir, band or intense sports that involve greater exhalation. Those activities should take place outdoors or in large, well-ventilated spaces when possible.
Teen cheerleader speaks about alleged ‘deep fake’ video plot by rival’s mom - A Pennsylvania high school cheerleader targeted by a mom who allegedly conspired to get her daughter’s rivals kicked off the squad with “deep fake” videos said she broke down in tears when confronted about a bogus clip of her vaping. Madi Hime, 17, said she was stunned when her coach from the Victory Vipers cheer squad in Doylestown showed her the footage of her smoking — a violation of team rules. “I went in the car and started crying and was like, ‘That’s not me in the video,'” Hines told Good Morning America on Monday. “I thought if I said it, no one would believe me because obviously, there’s proof, there’s a video – but obviously that video was manipulated.” Hime said she was also was sent manipulated photos of herself via text from someone posing as a concerned parent. She ultimately took the messages to her mother Jennifer Hime, who contacted police. “It had actually been going on for quite a while, I just didn’t know about it,” her mom told the morning program. “I told her ‘I will call the police,’ because I wanted her to know that’s how much I believed her.” Investigators were able to trace the messages to Raffaela Spone, another student’s mom who had also been allegedly sending altered images to two other teammates. Spone, 50, was charged with cyber harassment of a child in connection to the false images and videos, which are known as “deep fakes.”Her attorney, Robert Birch, said his client denies the bizarre plot to take down her daughter’s cheerleading rivals, news station WPVI-TV reported.“She has absolutely denied what they’re charging her with and because of the fact that this has hit the press, she has received death threats,” Birch said. “She has had to go to the police herself, they have a report. Her life has been turned upside down.”
High schooler, mother arrested for hacking homecoming queen vote --A 17-year-old high school student and her mother were arrested for hacking the school’s system and changing the homecoming queen vote.The Florida Department of Law Enforcement said in a press release Monday that the mother and daughter will be charged with offenses against users of computers, computer systems, computer networks, and electronic devices, unlawful use of a two-way communications device, criminal use of personally identifiable information and conspiracy to commit these offenses. Laura Rose Carroll, an assistant principal at Bellview Elementary School in Florida, allegedly cast 246 votes for Homecoming Court, making her daughter the homecoming queen. “Agents uncovered evidence of unauthorized access to FOCUS linked to Carroll’s cell phone as well as computers associated with their residence, with a total of 246 votes cast for the Homecoming Court,” FDLE said. Along with the fraudulent votes for homecoming, the arrest records state that Carroll’s daughter had improper access to Carroll’s FOCUS account that has personal information for all students in Escambia County School District. “I have known that [the daughter] logs into her moms school account in order to access grades and test scores since freshman year when we became friends,” one witness told investigators. The witness also alleged that the daughter openly shared private information from the account. The arrest records allege that Carroll’s account improperly accessed 372 student accounts over the past 1 1/2 years. Carroll’s daughter would have had to been periodically told the password for the account, as Carroll was required to change it every 45 days.
Growing anger against Biden administration’s mandate for standardized tests during pandemic -- Last month, President Biden’s Acting Assistant Education Secretary Ian Rosenblum sent a letter to state education administrators instructing them that standardized tests had to be administered to students in some form this spring, summer or fall. Rosenblum—whose previous job was executive director of the Education Trust-New York, a pro-standardized testing and pro-business organization—said states could delay the tests but they could not be canceled like last spring and they have to be conducted as soon as possible. The spring testing window for state tests, including the PSAT and SAT, typically given to high school juniors and seniors preparing for college, has already started in the United States. The states of Michigan, California, Illinois, Georgia, New Jersey and New York requested testing waivers for the 2020-2021 school year in December and January. Others, such as Texas, Tennessee, Florida and Indiana, are testing students regardless of the Biden administration’s decision. Rosenblum, who currently heads the Education Department’s Office of Elementary and Secondary Education, claimed the tests were needed to “address the educational inequities that have been exacerbated by the pandemic, including by using student learning data to enable states, school districts, and schools to target resources and supports to the students with the greatest needs.” This is nothing but a political cover. Testing is being tied to school reopenings, with the push for standardized testing coinciding with the Biden administration’s plans to open up all K-8 schools by the end of April. “President Biden’s first priority is to safely re-open schools and get students back in classrooms, learning face-to-face from teachers with their fellow students,” Rosenblum wrote. “To be successful once schools have re-opened, we need to understand the impact COVID-19 has had on learning and identify what resources and supports students need.” He added, “We must also specifically be prepared to address the educational inequities that have been exacerbated by the pandemic, including by using student learning data to enable states, school districts, and schools to target resources and supports to the students with the greatest needs.” Standardized tests have been among the greatest stressors to the nation’s children, teachers and families since they were aggressively scaled up under the Bush administration’s No Child Left Behind (NCLB). These tests have been used to systematically defund public schools for the past two decades, and mandating them during a pandemic should be deemed cruel and unusual punishment.
Fewer kids are going to college because they say it costs too much - A year into the coronavirus crisis, many high school seniors have dramatically changed their expectations about the future. A recent survey of high school students found that the likelihood of attending a four-year school sank nearly 20% in the last eight months — down to 53%, from 71%, according to ECMC Group, a nonprofit aimed at helping student borrowers. High schoolers are putting more emphasis on career training and post-college employment, the report found. More than half said they can achieve professional success with three years or less of college, and just one-fourth believe a four-year degree is the only route to a good job. ECMC Group polled more than 1,000 high school students three times over the last year. Even before the pandemic, families were starting to question the return on investment, said Jeremy Wheaton, ECMC Group's president and CEO. "There is going to be a reckoning here." The price tag increasingly is a problem. Tuition and fees plus room and board for a four-year private college averaged $50,770 in the 2020-21 school year; at four-year, in-state public colleges, it was $22,180, according to the College Board, which tracks trends in college pricing and student aid. The significant increase in the cost of college has outpaced both inflation and — even more starkly — family income over recent decades. After experiencing the sharp economic slowdown brought on by Covid, a majority of students and parents now say affordability and dealing with the debt burden that often goes hand-in-hand with a degree is their top concern, according to The Princeton Review's 2021 College Hopes & Worries survey. For college-bound students and their parents, a whopping 98% of families said financial aid would be necessary to pay for college and 82% said it was "extremely" or "very" necessary, The Princeton Review found. A majority of high school students also said they are now applying to colleges with lower sticker prices. Another third said they were applying to colleges closer to home. The Princeton Review polled more than 14,093 people: Roughly 80% were college applicants, and 20% were parents of applicants. Students dream of going off to college, said Robert Franek, The Princeton Review's editor-in-chief and author of "The Best 385 Colleges." "But, in fact, so many will stay within a three-hour drive."
College Admission Season Is Crazier Than Ever. That Could Change Who Gets In. – WSJ -- Ivy League schools and a host of other highly selective institutions waived SAT and ACT requirements for the class of 2025, resulting in an unprecedented flood of applications and what may prove the most chaotic selection experiment in American higher education since the end of World War II.The question hanging over higher education this month is whether this influx will permanently change how colleges select students and, ultimately, the makeup of the student population.Interviews with college-admissions officials and public and private high-school counselors point to an epic effort behind the scenes to make tough judgment calls at the highest speed. Colleges send out the bulk of their decision notices in March and early April, but it won’t be widely known how the incoming freshman classes will look until late summer or early fall. Added to the uncertainty will be whether students who deferred enrollment during the last admissions cycle will decide to enter school this year.Harvard University received more than 57,000 freshman applications for next fall’s entering class, a 42% year-over-year jump. Yale, Columbia and Stanford universities were so overwhelmed they also pushed back the date to announce admission decisions. The University of Southern California’s applications pool beat the prior record by 7%. And New York University topped 100,000 applications, up 17% from last year.With less focus on standardized tests scores, which numerous studies have shown are correlated with family wealth, that could mean accepting more low-income students from under-resourced high schools. Colleges say that without SAT or ACT results they’ll give greater weight to teacher recommendations and signs of intellectual curiosity, and judge candidates in the context of their environments.The pandemic “is calling on us to walk the talk,” when it comes to thinking more broadly about assessing applicants, said Lee Coffin, vice provost for enrollment and dean of admissions and financial aid at Dartmouth College. Dartmouth saw a 33% rise in applications after it waived standardized test scores this year. Mr. Coffin says he is conflicted about going test-optional. Before the pandemic Dartmouth considered standardized test scores to be among the most important information alongside grade point average, essays and class rank. Seeing strong scores helps his team feel more confident that admitted students could cut it at the Ivy League institution. “It becomes a moral question,” he said. “I don’t want to admit someone who is going to struggle.”
Further evidence of the perils of US college reopenings - A recent article published in the science journalism web site Science News,“How 5 Universities tried to handle COVID-19 on campus: Fall semester was the start of a big experiment,” shows that in-person education remains a breeding ground for the spread of the pandemic. It lays out much of the growing evidence that the SARS-CoV-2 virus spreads easily through indoor and community living. Science writer Betsy Ladyzhets found a 56 percent increase in COVID-19 cases during the three-week period of in-person instructions in comparison to the three weeks before, when the universities offered remote learning. The piece also found that in the same counties where universities offered remote learning, COVID-19 cases dropped by almost 18 percent. The author states, “With these kinds of risks, a college campus seems like one more dangerous place to spend time.” The author looked at five large universities: University of Wisconsin, Madison; North Carolina Agricultural and Technical State University; University of Washington, Seattle; Colorado Mesa University; and Rice University in Houston, Texas. Data was extracted from university staff self-studies and university dashboards during the fall semester of 2020. Growth in new daily cases on a 7-day rolling average supported the evidence that in-person instruction increased COVID-19 virus spread significantly. Some universities experienced late-semester peaks in infection from Halloween parties while others from surges in nearby cities. Each of the schools failed to fix the spread of the virus, even at the University of Washington, where the student and staff population was a fifth the normal level. Levels rose despite all schools cobbling together some type of mandatory PCR testing and mandating mask-wearing and restrictions on public gatherings. A large number of these efforts were initiated by the student “health ambassadors” to protect themselves, their friends and teachers, and loved ones at home. This high risk is further corroborated by an analysis reported in Computer Methods in Biomechanics and Biomedical Engineering on January 13, 2021, which showed that at 30 large universities COVID infections spiked in 14 colleges within 14 days of class, with seven-day incidences well above 1,000 per 100,000, an order of magnitude larger than nationwide peaks of 70 and 150 during the first and second waves of the pandemic. The danger is not only to college students, but to surrounding communities. In December, the New York Times reported that infection rates have risen faster than the national average in counties where students make up at least 10 percent of the population.
All Duke University undergrads must quarantine after COVID outbreak — Duke University issued a quarantine order for all of its undergraduates effective Saturday night due to a coronavirus outbreak caused by students who attended recruitment parties, the school said.The university said in a statement that all undergraduate students will be forced to stay-in-place until at least March 21. Suspension or dismissal from the school are potential punishments for “flagrant or repeat violators.”Over the past week, the school has reported more than 180 positive coronavirus cases among students. There are an additional 200 students who may have been exposed and have been ordered to quarantine.The school said in the statement that the outbreak was “principally driven by students attending recruitment parties for selective living groups.” Duke said it would provide a policy update on Thursday.
Duke undergraduates ordered to shelter in place amid rapid spike in COVID-19 cases -On Saturday, Duke University in Durham, North Carolina issued an order for all undergraduate students to shelter in place, citing a recent spike in positive COVID-19 cases. “Effective at midnight, Saturday, March 13, all Duke undergraduate students are required to stay-in-place until 9 a.m., Sunday, March 21,” wrote three administrators in the initial email to students Saturday. “If this feels serious, it’s because it is,” they added later on in the same email. The order follows the largest one-week rise on campus since the beginning of the pandemic last March, with 180 students in isolation from a positive test, and 200 students in quarantine as a result of contact tracing measures. According to the university’s COVID Dashboard, over 300 students have tested positive this semester, more than twice the total of positive test results from the entire fall semester. For a week, all in person classes, including labs, have been shifted online, and on-campus students are required to remain in their residence halls at all times, except for essential activities related to food, health, or safety. Students living off campus will not be permitted on university grounds, except to participate in testing or to visit the Student Health Center. The administration is attempting to shift the blame for the outbreak squarely on the students. The email sent to students announcing the shelter-in-place order explicitly says that the recent case spike is tied to “students attending recruitment parties for selective living groups.” Previously, the university said many new cases were tied to events organized by fraternities that had disaffiliated from the university, the Duke Chronicle reported. Despite the role celebrations or other social campus activities play in the spread of the virus, the attempt to scapegoat students for the outbreak is a dishonest effort to cover over the culpability of the university administration itself. The conditions in student dormitories, classrooms, labs, and even off campus housing, are simply not conducive to proper social distancing measures. School administrations are fully aware of the devastating impact that school reopenings had on students, teachers and staff, along with the broader community in college towns throughout the country, during the fall semester. Towns and cities with colleges that reopened for in-person learning, or which, for one reason or another, allowed large numbers of students to return to their dorms, quickly become some of the worst hot spots in the country.
150 spring breakers arrested amid party chaos in Miami Beach --About 150 people were arrested in Miami Beach over the weekend as throngs of unruly spring breakers descended on the city.Friday marked the wildest day in the party hot spot as about 120 people were arrested and two police officers were injured during clashes with the revelers, Local 10 News reported.“It is really a difficult situation,” Miami Beach Mayor Dan Gelber said of the weekend debauchery.“A lot of people are coming here and they are coming here with the wrong intentions,” he said,according to another report from the outlet. The city is under a midnight curfew amid the pandemic.The officers who were injured had been attempting to make an arrest when they were attacked, authorities said.“The crowd ended up turning on those officers who were there,” Miami Beach police spokesman Ernesto Rodriguez said, according to the report.The gatherings on Friday led police in some areas to deploy pepper balls to disperse the crowds.On Saturday, 30 more people were arrested.Gelber warned would-be spring breakers that more arrests will be made if they continue to disobey laws. “If you are coming here because you think anything goes, you’re going to have a terrible time. We are going to arrest you,” he said.
Kenyon College student workers in Ohio authorize strike over COVID-19 safety --On March 11, members of the Kenyon Student Worker Organizing Committee (K-SWOC) authorized a strike in opposition to the college administration and board of trustees’ refusal to recognize the newly formed union. Students at Kenyon College in Gambier, Ohio formed K-SWOC in April 2020 in response to employment uncertainty caused by the COVID-19 campus closure in March 2020. According to a press release on the K-SWOC website, most student workers were left in the dark after campus closures, payments stopped and students were told to simply wait for remote employment opportunities. A few workplaces were made remote quickly, but this was not the norm. A statement on the K-SWOC Twitter announcing the authorization vote noted that they are striking to “protest the college’s unfair practices and policies.” They added, “Over the last year student workers, through KSWOC-UE, have repeatedly attempted to raise our issues with Kenyon’s administration through conversations with managers and senior leadership, petitions that laid out our concerns.” K-SWOC has not released a date or list of demands for the planned strike which will be made up of student workers from several campus workplaces. Kenyon College is a small undergraduate liberal arts college attended by 1,730 students and the K-SWOC is not affiliated at this point with any larger union but has cited being assisted by the campus maintenance workers’ union, the United Electrical Workers (UE) Local 712. For the 2020-21 academic year, Kenyon is back in session with a mixture of remote and in-person instruction with certain grade levels allowed back on campus for specific semesters.
US Secretary of Education cancels $1B of student loan debt -On Thursday, the U.S. Department of Education announced its new plan to help tackle debt for those who borrowed federal money to pay for student loans.In a new streamlining process, borrowers who have approved claims that confirm their college or institution defrauded them or engaged in financial misconduct will be able to apply for full relief. Officials estimate that this could help about 72,000 borrowers receive $1 billion in loan cancellation. “Borrowers deserve a simplified and fair path to relief when they have been harmed by their institution’s misconduct,” said Secretary of Education Miguel Cardona. “A close review of these claims and the associated evidence showed these borrowers have been harmed and we will grant them a fresh start from their debt.”The Department of Education will be replacing the previous formula used to calculate relief — used by former Secretary of Education Betsy DeVos under the Trump administration — and ensure that borrowers with verified claims against a U.S. school will have complete loan forgiveness.The current Department of Education stated that after reviewing the formula used by the DeVos administration, “the Department determined that it did not result in an appropriate relief determination” for defrauded borrowers.The Department of Education will grant eligible borrowers full relief of related federal student loans, reimburse amounts paid on the loans, request credit bureaus to remove negative reporting associated with the loan, and reinstate federal student aid eligibility.This new approach is akin to the Borrower’s Defense, a legal caveat that protects student borrowers against fraudulent schools and colleges. A department spokesperson confirmed to The Hill that this was frequently used during the Obama administration, primarily with cases relating to claims of Corinthian College students.
Why Would Anyone Buy Crypto Art – Let Alone Spend Millions on What’s Essentially a Link to a JPEG File? - As an academic researcher, developer of artistic technology and amateur artist, I was quite skeptical about crypto art when I first read about it several years ago. However, I follow a community of artists on social media, and some of the artists there whom I respect, like Mario Klingemann and Jason Bailey, embraced and advocated for crypto art. Within the past few months, activity and prices seemed to snowball. I started thinking it deserves to be taken seriously. Then the Beeple sale happened. On March 11, Beeple, a computer science graduate whose real name is Mike Winkelmann, auctioned a piece of crypto art at Christie’s for US$69 million. The winning bidder is now named in a digital record that confers ownership. This record, called a nonfungible token, or NFT, is stored in a shared global database. This database is decentralized using blockchain, so that no single individual or company controls the database. As long as the specific blockchain survives in the world, anyone can read or access it, and no one can change it. But “ownership” of crypto art confers no actual rights, other than being able to say that you own the work. You don’t own the copyright, you don’t get a physical print, and anyone can look at the image on the web. There is merely a record in a public database saying that you own the work – really, it says you own the work at a specific URL. So why would anyone buy crypto art – let alone spend millions on what’s essentially a link to a JPEG file?
Sacklers Offer $4.3 Billion To Settle Claims Purdue Helped Cause Opioid Crisis --Perdue Pharmaceuticals admitted last year that it knowingly conspired with doctors to over-prescribe OxyContin and other dangerously addictive opioid painkillers in order to bolster profits. And as it desperately seeks an exit from bankruptcy protection (which the company only invoked to avoid being financially ruined by thousands of lawsuits) Perdue and the Sackler Family (who are now being personally targeted by some states attorneys general) are pitching a new $10 billion settlement plan that will see the family increase its contribution to $4.3 billion, roughly one-third of the family's wealth.The new offer is $1.3 billion larger than a $3 billion figure included as part of their initial 2019 settlement offer, which was rejected by 24 AGs and Washington DC.Unfortunately for Purdue, their latest settlement offer lands as opioid overdoses in the US are surging. New data released by the CDC Tuesday showed overdose fatalities hit a record high of more than 81K deaths during the 12-month period ending May 2020. Thanks in part to COVID, and to the powerful synthetics like fentanyl flooding the market, the rate per overall population nationwide has never been higher.The proposed settlement would also create a new company would sell drugs to alleviate the impact of the epidemic, such as buprenorphine naloxone, which treats opioid dependence.The family's last offer, put forward back in 2019, was rejected by 24 states and Washington DC.
Pollen Can Increase Your Risk of COVID-19 --Exposure to pollen can make you more susceptible to COVID-19, and it isn't just a problem for people with allergies, new research released March 9 shows. Plant physiologist Lewis Ziska, a co-author of the new peer-reviewed study and other recent research on pollen and climate change, explains the findings and why pollen seasons are getting longer and more intense.What Does Pollen Have to Do With a Virus?The most important takeaway from our new study is that pollen can be a factor in exacerbating COVID-19. A couple years ago, my coauthors showed that pollen can suppress how the human immune system responds to viruses. By interfering with proteins that signal antiviral responses in cells lining the airways, it can leave people more susceptible to potentially a whole host of respiratory viruses, such as the flu virus and other SARS viruses.In this study, we looked specifically at COVID-19. We wanted to see how the number of new infections changed with the rise and fall of pollen levels in 31 countries around the world. We found that, on average, about 44% of the variability in COVID-19 case rates was related to pollen exposure, often in synergy with humidity and temperature.The infection rates tended to rise four days after a high pollen count. If there was no local lockdown, the infection rate increased by an average of about 4% per 100 pollen grains in a cubic meter of air. A strict lockdown cut the increase by half.This pollen exposure isn't just a problem for people with hay fever. It's a reaction to pollen in general. Even types of pollen that typically don't cause allergic reactions were correlated with an increase in COVID-19 infections.
New study finds slow walkers four times more likely to die from Covid-19 SLOW walkers are almost four times more likely to die from COVID-19, and have over twice the risk of contracting a severe version of the virus, according to a team of researchers from the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Leicester Biomedical Research Centre led by Professor Tom Yates at the University of Leicester. The study of 412,596 middle-aged UK Biobank participants examined the relative association of body mass index (BMI) and self-reported walking pace with the risk of contracting severe COVID-19 and COVID-19 mortality. The analysis found slow walkers of a normal weight to be almost 2.5 times more likely to develop severe COVID-19 and 3.75 times more likely to die from the virus than normal weight fast walkers. (1) "We know already that obesity and frailty are key risk factors for COVID-19 outcomes. This is the first study to show that slow walkers have a much higher risk of contracting severe COVID-19 outcomes, irrespective of their weight. "With the pandemic continuing to put unprecedented strain on health care services and communities, identifying individuals at greatest risk and taking preventative measures to protect them is crucial." A further key finding from this research was that normal weight slow walkers are more at risk for both severe COVID-19 and COVID-19 mortality than fast walkers with obesity. Furthermore, risk was uniformly high in normal weight slow walkers and slow walkers with obesity.
Older, Heavier People May Be 'Superspreaders' of COVID-19 - People with higher body mass index (BMI) and older age are more likely to spread SARS-CoV-2 because they exhale more respiratory droplets, but a "nasal hygiene" product can reduce those, researchers say. The study about age and BMI was published online February 9 in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. It was conducted by David A. Edwards, Ph.D., founder and chief scientific officer of Sensory Cloud, Boston, Massachusetts, and formerly professor of bioengineering at Harvard University, Boston, and colleagues.The results "raise the question, 'What is causing some people to exhale many more respiratory droplets than other people?' " Edwards told Medscape Medical News. "This work shows that there are a few factors at least ― age, BMI, and particularly strong correlations with age times BMI and respiratory infection itself," he noted.In the new study, Edwards and colleagues measured exhaled respiratory particles in a total of 194 healthy persons at two different US sites and in eight nonhuman primates that had been experimentally infected with SARS-CoV-2.Among the humans, those in the top 18% for the metric of BMI multiplied by age (which they dubbed BMI-years) accounted for 80% of exhaled bioaerosols. Half of the group (73 individuals) with lowest BMI-years (<650 BMI-years) exhaled significantly less aerosol than the half of the group (73 individuals) with the highest BMI-years (>650 BMI-years; P < .015), the researchers note.The study is the first to attribute COVID-19 "superspreader" capabilities to individual human characteristics, as opposed to events involving crowds or unmasked behaviors.
How much protection you get from one shot of the Pfizer, AstraZeneca, and Moderna vaccines, according to the best available data -- More than 60 million Americans and more than 22 million Britons have received their first dose of a two-shot COVID-19 vaccine. The US has authorized vaccines from Moderna and Pfizer-BioNTech, while the UK has authorized Pfizer's shot as well as one made by AstraZeneca and Oxford University. The US has alsoauthorized Johnson & Johnson's vaccine, which is a single dose. The UK is delaying the second dose of the vaccines for up to 12 weeks to prioritize giving people their first shot. In the US, theCenters for Disease Control and Prevention has recommendedgiving second doses of Pfizer's vaccine 21 days after the first, and 28 days after the first for Moderna, with an interval of up to six weeks in "unavoidable" situations. The data for how well the vaccines work after one dose isn't clear cut — it depends on what you're measuring and when you're measuring it. Stephen Evans, a professor of medical statistics at the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine and a former drug-safety committee member at the European Medicines Agency, helped Insider break down the data.
- Pfizer's shot was 52.4% effective at protecting against COVID-19 with symptoms between the first and second dose, according to the FDA documents. But the 52.4% figure includes the 11 days before protection kicks in after the first dose, so the real percentage could well be higher. The true value lies between 29.5% and 84.5%, according to the FDA documents. There was a wide range because not many people caught COVID-19 in the trial during this time period. Pfizer's shot was 100% effective at protecting against hospitalization and death. This was based on a small number though — only four people got severe COVID-19 in the trial after receiving placebo rather than the vaccine.Evans said you couldn't be absolutely sure what happens after 21 days because it hadn't been fully tested.
- Moderna's vaccine was 69.5% effective at preventing COVID-19 with symptoms between the first and second dose, with a true value between 43.5% and 84.5%. There was a fairly wide range because the number of people that caught COVID-19 in the trial during this time period was low. The 69.5% figure includes the 13 days before protection starts, so the real percentage could be higher.There were a small number of people in Moderna's trial — about 7% — that didn't get their second dose for unknown reasons. In this group, the shot was 50.8% effective at preventing COVID-19 with symptoms for up to 14 days after the first dose and 92.1% effective after 14 days.It is unclear how well one shot of the vaccine protects against hospitalization and death because not many people got severe COVID-19 — two in the vaccine group and four in placebo.
- Evans said it was harder to ascertain a figure for AstraZeneca's vaccine because late-stage trials used differing study designs, and a large US study was ongoing. A single dose of AstraZeneca's shot was 76% effective at protecting against COVID-19 with symptoms for at least 90 days, according to late-stage-trial data published in The Lancet on February 19. The study authors also reported that one dose provided 100% protection against hospitalization, but the numbers were small. Based on his reading of existing studies, Evans said the single-dose efficacy for AstraZeneca's vaccine was probably at least 70% against COVID-19 with symptoms for the first 90 days. After this time period, it's unclear, he said.
- J&J looked at protection against moderate to severe COVID-19 in trials, rather than symptomatic COVID-19, like Pfizer, Moderna, and AstraZeneca. Protection kicked in at 14 days and was 66.1% effective at 28 days. The vaccine's efficacy varied depending on the country it was used in — it was 72% effective in the US but 64% and 68% effective in South Africa and Brazil, respectively. These countries both have coronavirus variants circulating that could partially evade antibodies.
Percentage efficacy for vaccines refers to the proportion of people that get full protection after a vaccine. With 80% efficacy, 80% of people have full protection, and 20% don't.For those who get full protection the first time around, the second shot improves the quality of the immune response and its durability. For the people who don't get full protection with the first shot, some will get full protection after the second dose. Some people won't ever get full protection from a vaccine because their immune system doesn't respond at all.
New SARS-CoV-2 variant in France appears undetectable by PCR-- French authorities have announced the emergence of a new variant of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) in the northwestern region of Brittany that has escaped detection by standard polymerase chain reaction (PCR) tests. The SARS-CoV-2 virus is the agent responsible for the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic that continues to ravage the globe and has now caused more than 2.67 million deaths. An in-depth investigation is now underway in Brittany after genomic sequencing identified eight carriers of the variant among a cluster of 79 cases in the town of Lannion in the Côtes d'Armor on the 13th of March. On Monday, the health ministry said in a statement that initial analyses of the variant do not suggest that this new strain is more transmissible or causes more severe disease than previous viral strains. However, in a press conference on Tuesday, health officials said the failure of PCR tests to detect the virus is raising concerns. Belgian virologist and interfederal COVID-19 spokesperson Steven Van Gucht clarified that about eight individuals presented with typical coronavirus symptoms, "but the tests remained negative." The announcement comes as France sees a resurgence in SARS-CoV-2 cases, with President Emmanuel Macron warning that new lockdown measures could be implemented in the days to come.
SARS-CoV-2 variants with E484K mutation show mRNA vaccine-induced antibody evasion. -A recent study by researchers in Switzerland, China and the UK found that the Pfizer-BioNTech mRNA vaccine had limited efficacy in identifying mutated receptor-binding domains (RBDs) of the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2)spike protein similar to the B.1.351 and P.1 variants. The B.1.351 variant was first detected in South Africa, and the P.1 variant in Brazil. Both variants have the E484K mutation, which decreases the neutralizing antibody response produced by vaccines, monoclonal antibody therapies, convalescent plasma, and natural infection.The current mRNA vaccines have proven effective against the other variant of concern discovered in the United Kingdom last Fall – also known as the B.1.1.7 variant.The study’s findings may have implications for the longevity of current vaccine models, which were based on ancestral strains of the virusResearchers write:Recognition may, however, be 10-fold reduced for the variants B.1.351/P.1, suggesting that the development of a new vaccine is warranted. The E484K mutation is an key hurdle for immune recognition, convalescent plasma and monoclonal antibody therapy as well as serological assays based on the wildtype sequence may therefore seriously impaired.” The study “BNT162b2 mRNA COVID-19 vaccine induces antibodies of broader cross-reactivity than natural infection but recognition of mutant viruses is up to 10-fold reduced” is available as a preprint on the bioRxiv* server, while the article undergoes peer review.
Coronavirus strains first detected in California are officially ;variants of concern,' CDC says - Two coronavirus strains first detected in California are now officially "variants of concern," according to the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.The variants may be about 20% more transmissible, the CDC said, citing early research. Some Covid-19 treatments may also be less effective against the strains. Still, the CDC didn't say that vaccines would stop working against them. In laboratory studies, antibodies from vaccinated people do seem to be less effective at neutralizing the strains. But lower levels of antibodies may still be enough to protect against Covid-19, especially severe cases. Certain immune cells can also help protect against disease -- not just antibodies. No coronavirus variants currently rise to the US government's highest threat level, "variant of high consequence." Coronavirus strains shown to significantly reduce vaccine effectiveness would fall under that category.Still, health officials are concerned that some treatments may not work as well against the variants, which are officially called B.1.427 and B.1.429. Scientists have been monitoring the strains closely in California over the past few months. The US Department of Health and Human Services recently halted shipments of a Covid-19 antibody treatment to California, Nevada and Arizona, where the variants are circulating widely. The agency cited concerns that the treatment, which is made by Eli Lilly and Company and called bamlanivimab, may be less effective against the strains. Officials said that another Covid-19 therapy made by Eli Lilly, a combination of bamlanivimab and another drug, etesevimab, can still be ordered. Early results show the drug combination may significantly reduce the risk of hospitalization and death. A different antibody treatment made by Regeneron Pharmaceuticals was also not affected by the HHS action.
California's new COVID-19 strain reduces immune response - California’s more infectious strain of the COVID-19 virus is now the dominant variant in the state and has been proven to thwart protective antibodies used in vaccines and therapeutics, according to a new UC San Francisco study. In response, the Centers for Disease Control has labeled the California strain a “variant of concern,” joining a designation shared by strains first identified in Great Britain, South Africa and Brazil. Within just the past six months, it has exploded in prevalence. By the end of January, when the study was completed, the variant represented more than 50% of genomes sequenced from infected people tested at UCSF’s hospitals and clinics, Alameda County’s community sites and Santa Clara County’s congregate facility, community and acute care sites. With a reproductive rate that doubles more than once a month, its prevalence is now likely higher. Vaccines will likely remain effective against the variant, according to lead investigator Dr. Charles Chiu of UC San Francisco, whose lab is collaborating with the state’s Department of Public Health to seek cases of the new variant. But its behavior is worrisome. Scientists found a two-fold decrease in neutralizing antibody activity against the California variant. The South African variant, which is proven to elude vaccines, causes a six-fold reduction. Antibody levels are a marker of protection.The growing prevalence of this more contagious pathogen, combined with its ability to reduce immune protection, means it must be watched, Chiu said. “I don’t think it’s going to lead to a ‘vaccine breakthrough, where the vaccine doesn’t work,” he said. “But this study gives us some initial idea of the infectivity and the potential resistance to neutralizing antibodies for a variant that, up until now, has not been studied. This is key information that we need.”
AstraZeneca's COVID-19 Vaccine Has No Efficacy Against South African Virus Strain, Study Shows According to a Phase 1b-2 trial published in the New England Journal of Medicine, the two-dose COVID-19 vaccine developed by Oxford University / AstraZeneca Plc (NASDAQ: AZN) was ineffective against mild-to-moderate infections caused due to mutated virus strain in South Africa, dubbed as B.1.351 variant. The study was led by scientists at the South African Medical Research Council Vaccines and Infectious Diseases Analytics Research Unit.The trial evaluated the safety and the efficacy of the AstraZeneca ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 vaccine in HIV-negative adults aged between 18 to 64 years of age. Median follow-up after the second dose was 121 days. Data showed that the vaccine was overall 10.4% effective against the variant.Of the 750 participants vaccine recipients, 19 (2.5%) developed mild to moderate COVID-19 more than 14 days after the second dose, compared with 23 of 717 placebo recipients (3.2%).The incidence of COVID-19 among the vaccine group was 731 per 1,000 person-years, compared with 93.6 per 1,000 person-years among the placebo group, for the efficacy of 21.9%.Of the 42 total cases of COVID-19, 39 were caused by B1351, for vaccine effectiveness against this variant of 10.4%.All 42 cases were mild to moderate, and no patients were hospitalized. The serious adverse event rates were similar between the vaccine and placebo groups.Only one severe vaccine-related event occurred, a fever of 40°C (104°F) following the first dose; the fever cleared within 24 hours, and no adverse events were seen after the participant's second dose. The study concluded by saying that although the development of second-generation COVID-19 vaccines against strains such as B1351 and P1 has begun, the only vaccines likely to be available for the rest of 2021 are formulated against the original virus. In early February, South African health officials stopped the AstraZeneca-Oxford vaccine's rollout to investigate reports that it offered little protection against mild-to-moderate disease.
Scientists Say They Found Cause of Rare Blood Clotting Linked to AstraZeneca Vaccine – WSJ -Scientists in Europe said they had identified a mechanism that could lead theAstraZeneca PLC vaccine to cause potentially deadly blood clots in rare instances as well as a possible treatment for it.Two teams of medical researchers in Norway and Germany have independently found that the vaccine could trigger an autoimmune reaction causing blood to clot in the brain, which would offer an explanation for isolated incidents across Europe in recent weeks.Several European countries briefly halted their rollouts of the vaccine this week after more than 30 recipients were diagnosed with the condition known as cerebral venous sinus thrombosis, or CVST. Most of the people affected were women under the age of 55.The issue affected a tiny portion of those who had received the shot, however, and after investigating, the European drugs regulator ruled that the benefits outweighed the potential risks of the vaccine, and recommended vaccinations resume. Some countries, such as Germany, France and Italy, resumed vaccinations with AstraZeneca’s shot on Friday, with an added warning that it could be linked to blood clotting. The French healthcare authority, which recorded three cases of CVST connected to the vaccine, advised the government on Friday to only administer the shot to people older than 55.Others, including Norway, Sweden and Denmark, said they needed more research before restarting their rollouts. Norway registered three cases of CVST, one of them fatal. The country vaccinated around 120,000 people with the shot. Finland suspended the use of AstraZeneca on Friday, after recording two cases of what the authorities called unusual blood clotting. Pål André Holme, a professor of hematology and chief physician of the Oslo University Hospital who headed an investigation into the Norwegian cases, said his team had identified an antibody created by the vaccine that was triggering the adverse reaction.“Nothing but the vaccine can explain why these individuals had this immune response,” Prof. Holme said.Norway’s health authority cited the findings when announcing that it wouldn’t resume the vaccination.A team of German researchers around Andreas Greinacher, professor of transfusion medicine at the Greifswald University Clinic, said Friday they had independently come to the same conclusion as Prof. Holme. In Germany, 13 cases of CVST were detected among around 1.6 million people who received the AstraZeneca vaccine. Twelve patients were women and three died.
The First Big Study On COVID-19 Reinfection Is Here. Here's What It Means. - The possibility of coronavirus reinfection has been a concern since the first reports of people getting sick again began popping up in 2020 ― while many around the globe were still in isolation. But there has been relatively little data up until this point on how widespread a phenomenon this is. The first large-scale investigation to tackle that question was published in The Lancet this week, and it found that the vast majority of people who have had COVID-19 are indeed protected from catching it again — for at least six months. However, people ages 65 and older are far more likely than younger individuals to experience repeat infection. The researchers analyzed data from Denmark’s national COVID-19 testing program, which has offered free PCR testing to roughly 4 million people living in the country. Overall, they found that a very small percentage of the population — 0.65% — experienced reinfection. For those 65 and under, getting the coronavirus once provided roughly 80% protection against reinfection. But for people 65 and older, it provided only about 47% protection against getting COVID-19 again, further highlighting how dangerous this disease can be for older adults. “Since older people are also more likely to experience severe disease symptoms and, sadly, die, our findings make clear how important it is to implement policies to protect the elderly during the pandemic,” Steen Ethelberg, the study’s author from the Statens Serum Institut in Denmark, said in a statement. “Given what is at stake, the results emphasize how important it is that people adhere to measures implemented to keep themselves and others safe — even if they have already had COVID-19.”Overall this news is positive, but it also highlights the need for continued vigilance. Many factors could still play a potential role in getting sick.The emergence of different variants is one of them. Coronavirus reinfection has become a particular concern over the last few months as new variants have begun circulating around the globe.A vaccine study in South Africa — where a variant is circulating that experts fear is more contagious and may make the current vaccines less effective — found new infections in 2% of people who’d previously been infected with a different variant of the coronavirus. The large new study out of Denmark did not examine the role of variants in reinfection, given the time frame of the research. So it does not offer any clues about whether variants make it more likely for someone to come down with COVID-19 more than once.
Brazil variant can reinfect virus survivors; COVID-19 vaccine antibodies pass into breast milk -A coronavirus variant circulating in Brazil is likely able to reinfect people who survived infections with earlier versions of the coronavirus, new data suggest. The variant that emerged in Brazil, called P.1, carries a mutation that is already known to make a variant prevalent in South Africa harder to treat with antibodies and harder to prevent with available vaccines. New data suggest that in many recovered patients, immunity to earlier versions of the virus will not afford immunity to P.1. Researchers tested the neutralizing ability of antibodies in plasma samples taken from survivors of COVID-19 caused by earlier versions of the virus. The plasma "had 6-fold less neutralizing capacity" against the P.1 variant than against earlier virus versions, the researchers reported on Monday ahead of peer-review on a preprint server belonging to The Lancet journal. "Lower neutralization capacity of SARS-CoV-2 antibodies and partial immunity against new variants suggests that reinfection could occur in convalescent or even vaccinated individuals," the authors said. In a separate paper posted on Wednesday on medRxiv ahead of peer review, some of the same researchers estimated that among every 100 survivors of COVID-19 due to earlier virus versions, 25-to-60 could become reinfected if exposed to the P.1 variant because their antibodies could not protect them. As of Thursday, according to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control of Prevention, there have been 13 cases of COVID-19 due to P.1 in the United States.(bit.ly/2PyNFGt; bit.ly/3qeqq1a)
VERIFY: You can catch two COVID-19 variants at the same time - New COVID-19 strains have emerged during the coronavirus pandemic, including those first identified in the United Kingdom, South Africa and Brazil. Now, several media outlets are reporting that people can contract more than one coronavirus variant at the same time. Thereports cite a Brazilian study posted in January. Is it possible to be infected with two variants of COVID-19 at the same time, and what does that mean for the severity of symptoms? That’s what people are trying to figure out. The claim comes from a Brazilian study in which scientists found two instances of COVID-19 co-infection among samples taken from people in the state of Rio Grande do Sul. Both people recovered. The study was published as a pre-print article and has not been peer reviewed. Yes, it is possible to contract more than one strain of COVID-19 simultaneously. But according to Dr. Saralyn Mark and the CDC, health officials don’t know yet whether double infection could impact vaccine efficacy or severe coronavirus disease. In addition, there are no widespread reports of co-infection. Dr. Saralyn Mark, former senior medical advisor at the White House and current lead COVID-19 spokesperson for the American Medical Women’s Association, said that while having more than one COVID-19 strain at the same time is a possibility, the effect on vaccine efficacy or severe disease is yet to be known. “There’s even some thought that perhaps a hybrid strain could be emerging from these variants, but we don’t know yet the implications of that, or if they make the virus more transmissible, lethal or less susceptible to vaccines and treatment,” she said.
Poll: Only half of frontline health workers have been vaccinated -- Just over half of all frontline health workers in a new poll said they have received at least their first dose of a coronavirus vaccine, a figure that highlights challenges ahead as the nation drastically scales up its vaccination effort.Health workers were the first groups of people prioritized for getting vaccines when the first doses began being administered. But three months in, just 52 percent of frontline health workers said they received a shot, according to the Washington Post/Kaiser Family Foundation Poll.A large majority of unvaccinated health care workers who either have not decided if they will get vaccinated, or say they do not plan to get vaccinated, expressed worries about potential side effects as well as the newness of the vaccine.According to the survey, two-thirds of respondents expressed a distrust in the government to ensure the safety and effectiveness of the vaccines. While the top concerns are consistent across key demographic groups, three-fourths of Black health care workers who have not received a COVID-19 vaccine cited distrust of the government as a major factor in their decision.Education and partisanship also played a role in vaccine acceptance, according to the poll. Large shares of adults without a college degree, as well as Republican and Republican-leaning adults said they are not confident the COVID-19 vaccines have been properly tested for safety and effectiveness. The survey was conducted from Feb. 11 to March 7. At the start of the survey, vaccines from Pfizer-BioNTech and Moderna had been authorized. The Johnson & Johnson single dose vaccine was authorized Feb. 27.The poll includes interviews with a nationally representative sample of 1,327 frontline health care workers representing hospitals, doctors’ offices, outpatient clinics, nursing homes and assisted care facilities, and those working in home health care. The same disparities shown among health workers mirror the national population. According to the survey, only 39 percent of Black health workers, and 44 percent of Hispanic frontline health workers reported personally receiving a COVID-19 vaccine, compared to nearly 60 percent of white health care workers.
Trump urges supporters to get coronavirus vaccine -Former President Trump on Tuesday urged his supporters to get vaccinated against the coronavirus as concern grows over polls showing GOP vaccine hesitancy. Making a rare media appearance on Fox News, Trump said he would “recommend” the shots that are currently being distributed but added a caveat about respecting individual freedoms. “I would recommend it, and I would recommend it to a lot of people who don’t want to get it and a lot of people who voted for me, frankly, and we have our freedoms, and we have to live by that, and I agree with that also,” he told Fox News's Maria Bartiromo, adding that “it’s a great vaccine, and it’s a safe vaccine.” The comments mark the first time that the former president has openly advocated for his followers to get a coronavirus shot. Vaccines from Pfizer, Moderna and Johnson & Johnson have been authorized in the U.S., with more than 110 million doses administered so far. The Pfizer and Moderna vaccines require two doses to reach full effectiveness, while the Johnson & Johnson vaccine requires just one shot. Democrats and Republicans alike have been clamoring for Trump to publicly urge his supporters to get a shot amid surveys showing many Republicans are hesitant to getting vaccinated. A PBS Newshour/NPR/Marist poll released last week found that 41 percent of Republicans said they would not get the shot, and a CBS News poll released late last month found that 34 percent of Republicans said they would not be vaccinated for COVID-19. “If former President Trump woke up tomorrow and wanted to be more vocal about the safety and efficacy of the campaign, of the vaccine, certainly we’d support that,” White House press secretary Jen Psaki said at a briefing with reporters Monday. Trump received his vaccine in January before leaving office, though news of his inoculation did not come out until earlier this month, and he has mostly remained mum on the vaccine post-presidency. When he has discussed the shots, he has mostly claimed credit for the work that was put into creating them during his administration rather than urging supporters to get vaccinated.
Trump Supporters Turn On Him Over COVID-19 Vaccine In Uncomfortable CNN Segment (diner video) The coronavirus vaccine may be in short supply in much of the nation, but there are some communities where it’s a much harder sell, as CNN’s Gary Tuchman learned during a trip to Oklahoma. In Boise City, Tuchman entered a diner and asked if anyone in the room was ready for the shot. In a county where 92 percent voted for former President Donald Trump in November, Tuchman’s query was met with silence. Not even Trump’s endorsement of the vaccine made a difference. “Trump is a liberal New Yorker,” one Trump voter declared. “Why would we listen to him either?”Another diner flat-out said “no” when asked if Trump’s endorsement would get him to take the vaccine. Other diners rejected both science and government. Tuchman found much the same attitude elsewhere in the community.
Facebook finds handful of users spreading COVID vaccine doubts - A small subset of Facebook users are responsible for the bulk of the platform’s posts expressing skepticism toward COVID-19 vaccines, company researchers reportedly found. The social-media giant has been trying to track the spread of content that could sow doubts about the vaccines as officials distribute them across the country, the Washington Post reported. Facebook has banned outright false claims about COVID vaccines since December, but the company has reportedly been working to examine posts that express concerns about them without violating the site’s rules. Early findings from the research suggest that a handful of Facebook’s users in the US are pushing that content, according to the Washington Post, which obtained documents related to the study. For instance, data scientists divided American users, pages and groups into 638 “population segments” and found that just 10 of them contained half of all the so-called vaccine hesitancy content on the platform, the paper reported Sunday. And only 111 users were behind half of the vaccine hesitancy content in the segment with the most hesitant posts, the story says. Facebook spokesperson Dani Lever did not provide details of the study’s findings but confirmed to The Post that the research is underway. Lever said the study is part of Facebook’s efforts to help users find information about COVID-19 vaccines and to tackle misinformation about the shots. CEO Mark Zuckerberg also announced a campaign Monday to distribute info about where to get vaccinated. “We routinely study things like voting, bias, hate speech, nudity, and COVID — to understand emerging trends so we can build, refine, and measure our products,” Lever said in a statement.
Fauci clashes with Rand Paul over masks -The nation's top infectious diseases doctor Anthony Fauci on Thursday clashed with Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.) over the need for people to continue wearing masks once they've already been infected with or vaccinated against COVID-19. "You're telling everyone to wear a mask," Paul said. "If we're not spreading the infection, isn't it just theater? You have the vaccine and you're wearing two masks, isn't that theater?" "Here we go again with the theater," an exasperated Fauci responded. "Let's get down to the facts." Paul, who was infected with COVID-19 at the beginning of the pandemic last March, has said he is immune to future infection. As a result, he refuses to wear a mask in the Capitol and has declared he does not need to be vaccinated. Paul argued there are no studies that show significant reinfection among people who have recovered from the virus or after vaccination. "I agree with you, that you very likely would have protection from wild type for at least six months if you're infected," Fauci said, but pointed out there is no protection from some of the more infectious variants, like the one one first found in South Africa. The variants are a "good reason for a mask." "You're making policy based on conjecture!" Paul said, talking over Fauci and accusing him of wanting people to wear masks "for another couple of years." "You've been vaccinated and you parade around in two masks for show," Paul continued. "If you already have immunity, you're wearing a mask to give comfort to others. You're not wearing a mask because of any science."
UK coronavirus variant on track to become dominant strain in Florida - Over the last three months, the COVID-19 U.K. variant has spread across the country. As of this week, the CDC reports the B.1.1.7 strain is in 46 states. At the beginning of the year, the CDC warned this more infectious version of the coronavirus could become the dominant strain in the U.S. this month. "Florida seems to be the place that’s developing the highest prevalence of this," said USF College of Public Health Distinguished Professor, Dr. Thomas Unnasch. More than 3,000 cases of the strain have been reported across the country, and Florida is the epicenter with nearly 650. However, that CDC tally likely only represents a fraction of the total B.1.1.7 infections. "It’s probably really running pretty rampant out there in the population right now, would be my guess," Unnasch said. A study done by two testing companies working with health officials to track the U.K. variant found it is growing by 7% every day in the states. Here in Sunshine State, infections of the strain double about every 9 days -- Putting B.1.1.7 on track to become dominant. "It’s gonna take over pretty soon, probably around late March, beginning of April," said Unnasch. Experts say the next few weeks will be critical. When this version of the virus became the most common across the pond, infections surged. That has not happened here yet, but with other states lifting restrictions and spring break trips, it is a concern. "We’re really, really close now," Unnasch said. "And if we just all pull together, we continue to do the social distancing, and we continue, especially, to wear the masks for another few weeks, it’s not gonna be very long, the vaccine process is gonna get ahead of this, and it’s not gonna have a chance anymore. We can all get our lives back." The B.1.1.7 strain is more infectious, and preliminary reports suggest it could be about 30% more deadly. Thankfully, evidence shows the three COVID-19 vaccines are all effective against it.
B.1.1.7 variants detected in Florida are approaching dangerous threshold - This Friday, more than 1.357 million travelers took to the air as spring break revelers sought respite and leisure from a long, painful winter. This was the single highest air travel figure since the World Health Organization declared the novel coronavirus outbreak a pandemic on March 11, 2020. Though these figures are far less than from the same day in 2019, it has alarmed the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). According to a recent travel industry survey, 12 percent of respondents were making travel plans, and Miami expects university students from over 200 colleges to visit over the next few weeks. Despite their premature guidelines for vaccinated individuals, the CDC continues to recommend against non-essential travel even for fully vaccinated people. Last Monday, Dr. Rochelle Walensky, appearing on MSNBC, said, “We know that after mass travel, after vacations, after holidays, we tend to see a surge in cases. We really want to make sure—again with just ten percent of people [fully] vaccinated—that we are limiting travel.” The United States, with more than 30 million confirmed COVID-19 cases and nearly 550,000 deaths, is in a precarious position. As it manages to fumble along with the most extensive vaccination campaign in its history, it also casts aside nearly every precaution against the pathogen. President Joe Biden is hedging his bet, tantamount to reckless endangerment, that sufficiently enough people have been vaccinated or previously infected to see a blunting of the impact of a spring surge. All eyes are now on Florida, where the B.1.1.7 variant, the variant first detected in the United Kingdom, is approaching a dangerous threshold—50 percent of all new cases subject to genetic testing. Not only is this variant more transmissible, but almost everyone also agrees the virus is more lethal than its predecessor. In December of 2020, the UK saw a dramatic surge in cases leading to a lockdown. At the same time, Manaus, Brazil, despite having had many previous infections, faced a deluge of new cases attributed to the variant first discovered there known as P.1. However, many state and local officials who have repeatedly called for reopening all businesses and schools throughout the pandemic are now playing down the risks attributed to these variants and instead touting the recent declines and vaccine initiatives as a cause to celebrate. Already cars are causing traffic congestions throughout Miami as vacationers are flooding restaurants, bars, cafes along strips of white sandy beaches. Daytona Beach has been hosting the 80th edition of its ten-day annual event known as Bike Week. There is virtually no attention to public health measures. With 300,000 people having attended the Florida motorcycle rally, it is reminiscent of the Sturgis motorcycle rally that converged in western South Dakota in August. With weeks, both North and South Dakota were inundated with cases of COVID-19.
March 15 COVID-19 Test Results and Vaccinations --From Bloomberg on vaccinations as of Mar 15th: "So far, 109 million doses have been given. In the last week, an average of 2.43 million doses per day were administered."Here is the CDC COVID Data Tracker. This site has data on vaccinations, cases and more. And check out COVID Act Now to see how each state is doing. (updated link to new site) There have been over 20,000 US deaths reported in March due to COVID. This graph shows the daily (columns) 7 day average (line) of positive tests reported.This data is from the CDC. The 7-day average is 64,867, well above the low following the summer surge of 35,000. Note that last week, Missouri reported 81,000 previously unreported cases, and that caused the spike in total cases (and an increase in 7 day average).
Ohio expanding vaccine eligibility to those aged 16 and older - Ohio Gov. Mike DeWine (R) announced on Tuesday that the state will be expanding COVID-19 vaccine eligibility to every resident age 16 and older later this month. DeWine said during a news conference that eligibility will be expanded on Friday to individuals age 40 and older, as well as those under 40 who have cancer, chronic kidney disease, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, heart disease or obesity. Eligibility will open up to all Ohio residents age 16 and older on March 29. DeWine noted that Pfizer’s vaccine is the only one authorized for 16- and 17-year-olds, whereas Moderna and Johnson & Johnson’s vaccines are authorized for those 18 and older. The expansion puts Ohio just over one month ahead of President Biden’s directive to make all adults eligible for the vaccine by May 1. Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer (D) announced last Friday that the state will expand vaccine eligibility to residents 16 and older by April 5. White House chief of staff Ron Klain said on Twitter that it’s “encouraging to see states moving this way ... but there's still a lot of work to do.” “Recall that what @POTUS announced was that ALL 50 states would hit this milestone by May 1: many will get there sooner, the challenge will be getting ALL 50 states to this point by May 1,” he tweeted.
U.K. Covid-19 Strain May Account for 25% to 30% of U.S. Cases - WSJ—The fast-spreading Covid-19 strain known as B.1.1.7, first identified in the U.K., could now account for 25% to 30% of U.S. cases, the director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention told House members in a hearing Wednesday.The U.S. has so far identified about 4,500 cases of the B.1.1.7. strain, Rochelle P. Walensky,director of the CDC, said in testimony before the House Energy and Commerce Committee’s subcommittee on oversight and investigations.But because authorities now are genetically testing about 4% of the roughly 400,000 weekly Covid-19 cases in this country, “the current trajectory suggests that the B.1.1.7 variant may now account for as much as 25% to 30% of U.S. viruses,” Dr. Walensky said. Dr. Walensky, along with leading government infectious-disease doctor Anthony Fauci and Food and Drug Administration senior vaccine official Peter Marks, testified Wednesday before the House subcommittee.In one issue of paramount concern to many Americans, Dr. Fauci said government and other researchers are testing versions of Covid vaccines in teens and younger children. “We expect we’ll have enough data to vaccinate these children” by early 2022, he said.In her remarks, Dr. Walensky said that a collaboration between the CDC and Emory University has produced data suggesting that theModerna Inc. vaccine produces antibodies that are able to neutralize the U.K. variant, “but have reduced neutralization against the B.1.351 variant,” as the South African strain is known.This latter strain has so far not been detected at the higher levels of the U.K. strain. It still isn’t known what the real-world effectiveness of current vaccines against the South African mutation will be, she said. Peter Marks, the senior-most vaccine regulatory official at the Food and Drug Administration, said it still isn’t known “how long the vaccines will provide protection, nor are we certain that the vaccines prevent transmission of [Covid-19] from person to person.”
March 17 COVID-19 Test Results and Vaccinations --From Bloomberg on vaccinations as of Mar 17th: "So far, 113 million doses have been given. In the last week, an average of 2.47 million doses per day were administered."Here is the CDC COVID Data Tracker. This site has data on vaccinations, cases and more. And check out COVID Act Now to see how each state is doing. (updated link to new site) There have been over 22,000 US deaths reported in March due to COVID. This graph shows the daily (columns) 7 day average (line) of positive tests reported.This data is from the CDC. The 7-day average is 54,421, well above the low following the summer surge of 35,000.The second graph shows the number of people hospitalized.This data is also from the CDC.The CDC cautions that due to reporting delays, the area in grey will probably increase. The current 7-day average is 34,295 well above the post-summer surge low of 23,000.
New, more dangerous COVID strains circulating in Arizona | Covid-19 - New, more dangerous variants of the COVID virus have arrived in Arizona, prompting doctors to redouble their efforts to get people vaccinated — and to continue wearing masks in public. The state health department this week announced the discovery of three cases of the P.1 variant that has plagued Brazil, on top of at least 35 cases caused by the B.1.1.7 variant first detected in England. The U.S. does not consistently screen for the new variants. Both variants spread 50% to 70% more easily than the normal strain. The P.1 variant also appears somewhat more lethal and better able to evade the protections of the currently approved vaccines, according to the most recent research. The worrisome news comes as Arizona races to vaccinate its population. Some 22% of the population has had at least one shot, but only 15% of those were fully vaccinated with either one of the two-shot vaccines or the one-shot Johnson & Johnson vaccine. Moreover, states have increasingly relaxed masking and social distancing requirements, just as the spread of the new strains has picked up speed. Arizona Gov. Doug Ducey ordered most schools to resume in-person classes this week, although high schools in areas where the virus is widespread can remain in distance learning mode for now. The governor also relaxed capacity limits for high-risk businesses like restaurants, gyms and bars. Fortunately, hospitalizations, new cases and deaths have all fallen rapidly in the past month — both nationally and in Arizona. Arizona has reported about 900 cases per day in the past week, a 30% decline from two weeks ago. Gila County has done especially well, with an infection rate of 10 per 100,000 in the past week, just under the state rate of 12 per 100,000. Apache County has reported an infection rate of 14 per 100,000 and Navajo County 12 per 100,000. Pinal County has the highest infection rate in the state, with 25 per 100,000. Unfortunately, the rapid decline in cases has led many people — and states — to relax protections. The federal Centers for Disease Control has warned people to continue practicing social distancing and wearing masks in public until 70% to 90% of the population has either gotten vaccinated or recovered from an infection. The CDC says that for now people who have been fully vaccinated can get together in small groups without a high risk of infection. However, even people who have had a shot are still urged to wear masks in public or in larger groups. It’s unclear whether someone who has been vaccinated and therefore doesn’t have symptoms can nonetheless have a low-level infection they can pass along to someone who isn’t vaccinated.
30% of Colorado COVID cases may be due to variants | 9news.com — Two COVID variants might account for as much as 30% of the state's current caseload, a top health official said Thursday, a grim update in Colorado's race to vaccinate its resident before the variants can drive up cases, hospitalizations and deaths.In order to keep tabs on new COVID strains, the state has started randomly testing hundreds of COVID-positive samples to see if they're variant cases. Eric France, the state's chief medical officer, said Thursday that roughly 22% of those random samples test positive for the California variant and another 8% test positive for the United Kingdom variant.France said the state can extrapolate those surveillance findings onto the broader situation in Colorado, meaning roughly 30% of cases are attributable to those new variants. Both of these new strains are listed by the state as "variants of concern," meaning they spread easier, cause more severe disease, reduce the efficacy of treatments or vaccines and are harder to detect. France said the California variant might be 20% more transmissible than the standard COVID strain. The U.K. variant is also considered to be more lethal and more transmissible.
South African COVID-19 variant again found in Santa Clara County -The worrisome South African strain of the COVID-19 virus, which appears to be more contagious and more resistant to some vaccines, has once again surfaced in Santa Clara County. Unlike the first case, detected in February, this new case is not travel-related and is believed to have resulted from community transmission. Health officials didn’t provide any more details. “This latest case confirms that we do have community transmission, and reminds us to not let down our guard in the middle of this pandemic,” Dr. Sara Cody, Health Officer and Director of Public Health for the County of Santa Clara, said in a statement. “Considering the national trends, we have been operating under the assumption that these variants were circulating at some level in our communities,” she said.It is the fourth case reported in California. In February, officials announced the detection of a case in Santa Clara County in an adult who had traveled internationally, but who quarantined after showing symptoms. Another February case was reported in Alameda County. Officials have not reported the source of the fourth case. The South African variant is able to elude the AstraZenca vaccine, although two other vaccines — made by Moderna and Johnson & Johnson — offer some protection. But despite its danger, this South African variant has not gained much of a foothold in the United States. First detected in the U.S. in January in South Carolina, only 142 cases in 25 states have been found. In contrast, two other strains – one that emerged in California, the other imported from the United Kingdom – are causing widespread concern. One, now being called the West Coast strain, is estimated to be 20% more transmissible than the original circulating variant. Another, imported from the United Kingdom, is thought to be as much as 50% more transmissible. The South African variant is also believed to be around 50% more contagious. There have been 6,628 California cases of the West Coast strain. As of mid-February, it accounted for more than half of all sequenced samples in California, more than one-third of Nevada samples and one-quarter of Arizona samples.
South African variant strain of COVID-19 identified in Mississippi — The Mississippi State Department of Health has announced that a new variant strain of COVID-19 has been identified in Mississippi. State health leaders announced Friday that the more infectious South African strain of COVID-19 has been discovered in a person in Harrison County. B.1.351 is the official name of the strain and originated in South Africa. It was first detected in the United States back in January. 25 other states have also reported cases of this new strain. Dr. Thomas Dobbs said that research has shown that the Johnson & Johnson vaccine may not be as effective against this strain as the Pfizer and Moderna. Dobbs pointed out that Pfizer, Moderna and Johnson & Johnson all show strong effectiveness at lessening the severity of COVID-19 cases in general by preventing hospitalizations and death. He urges folks to get whatever vaccine is available to them because the purpose of vaccinations are to limit morbidity and mortality from the virus, which is something Dobbs said current COVID-19 vaccines are absolutely effective at. Health officials reiterated that spread of the new strain is very limited in the US at this time. Another variant, the UK strain, was identified in Mississippi back in mid-February and has affected 10 patients so far in the state, according to Dr. Paul Byers. Dr. Dobbs urges people to continue to seek vaccinations. He said the new strain will seriously impact the unvaccinated population.
Florida reports more than 5K new COVID-19 cases --Health officials in Florida on Friday again reported more than 5,000 new COVID-19 infections. The state suffered another 54 previously unreported deaths, though that number shows the human toll of the coronavirus on the decline.A daily update from the Department of Health shows the state has recorded 1,999,257 positive tests for individuals infected with the virus. That’s up 5,140 cases since the Thursday report.The total includes 1,962,360 Florida residents to test positive, and another 36,897 from out-of-state who were tested here.The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention on Thursday evening separatelyreported an uptick in mutated virus strains in Florida cases. Florida continues to report the highest number of infections of the B.1.1.7 variant first discovered in the U.K., with 882 of the 5,567 known cases nationwide occurring in the Sunshine State.Florida also has detected 21 of 48 known cases of the P.1 strain that first surfaced in Brazil, far more than any other state.Less prevalent here, there have been nine known cases of the B.1.351 strain, first seen in South Africa, out of 180 known cases nationwide.As for fatal cases, Florida health officials now report 33,273 total pandemic-related deaths. That includes 32,651 Florida residents and another 622 who lived elsewhere, but died here.Health officials added 121,657 test results to its database on Thursday, of which 7,726 came back positive for COVID-19. That’s 6.35% of all tests, with the positivity rate for just new cases among Florida residents coming in at 5.02%. Health officials consider the spread of the virus contained as long as positivity rates stay below 10%.Florida officials also report that more than 7 million doses of vaccine have been administered. That means 4,710,033 individuals have received at least one shot of the three approved vaccines on that market.Of those, 138,419 individuals received the single-dose Johnson & Johnson vaccine. Another 2,478,676 have completed a two-dose regimen of the Moderna or Pfizer vaccines, while 2,092,938 have received one shot of those vaccines but await a booster.
March 20 COVID-19 Test Results and Vaccinations -According to the CDC, 121.4 million doses have been administered. 16.7% of the population over 18 is fully vaccinated, and 30.7% of the population over 18 has had at least one dose. And check out COVID Act Now to see how each state is doing. (updated link to new site)Over 26,000 US deaths have been reported in March due to COVID.This graph shows the daily (columns) 7 day average (line) of positive tests reported.This data is from the CDC. The 7-day average is 53,248, well above the low following the summer surge of 35,000.The second graph shows the number of people hospitalized. The CDC cautions that due to reporting delays, the area in grey will probably increase. The current 7-day average is 33,529 well above the post-summer surge low of 23,000.
U.S. to share 4 million doses of AstraZeneca COVID-19 vaccine with Mexico, Canada (Reuters) - The United States plans to send roughly 4 million doses of AstraZeneca’s COVID-19 vaccine that it is not using to Mexico and Canada in loan deals with the two countries, bowing to pressure to share vaccine with its allies. Mexico will receive 2.5 million doses of the vaccine and Canada is to receive 1.5 million doses, White House spokeswoman Jen Psaki said. “It is not fully finalized yet but it is our aim,” she told a daily briefing. The Biden administration has come under pressure from countries around the world to share vaccines, particularly its stock of AstraZeneca, which is authorized for use elsewhere but not yet in the United States. AstraZeneca has millions of doses made in a U.S. facility, and has said that it would have 30 million shots ready at the beginning of April. The company’s shares rose slightly after Reuters first reported the news. The deal to share the vaccine does not affect President Joe Biden’s plans to have vaccine available for all adults in the United States by the end of May, a senior administration official said, and it does not reduce the supply of available vaccine in the United States. Two officials said the vaccine would be delivered in “short order” once the deal was completed, but they declined to give a more specific timetable. The so-called “releasable” vaccines should be ready for use once they arrive in Mexico and Canada. Under the deal, the United States will share doses with the two countries now with the understanding that they will pay the United States back with doses in return. The official said that would take place later this year.
Coronavirus pandemic resurges throughout the world - As the different variants of the SARS-CoV-2 virus continue to spread, particularly those originating in the United Kingdom, Brazil, and South Africa, reported cases of the coronavirus have again begun to rise. Since February 20, the number of daily new cases worldwide has increased steadily, from 361,000 cases then, to more than 422,000 cases now, up 17 percent. The increase is being driven in countries across the world. Currently there are more than 22,000 new cases each day in India (an 80 percent increase), just under 25,000 in France (a 24 percent increase), and 22,000 in Italy (an 83 percent increase). The main driver of the new wave is Brazil, where there are at least 66,000 new cases each day (a 36 percent increase) and climbing. The total number of cases worldwide has now exceeded 120 million, with more than 2,660,000 dead. Numerous other countries have also seen steady, and in some cases sharp, increases in their case counts, including Chile, the Czech Republic, Ethiopia, Germany, Iran, Paraguay, Poland and the Philippines. And in the United States, where the decline in cases has largely plateaued, there is still an average of more than 55,000 new reported cases each day. There is every indication that this new wave, if allowed to continue, will be the worst yet. The previous wave was spurred on by relatively limited school and workplace reopenings, driving the number of new cases each day from just under 300,000 at the beginning of October to 745,000 at the beginning of January. Globally, more than 900,000 people died during that three-month period. The social misery produced by such a state of affairs is staggering. Bloomberg recently reported that 30 million people in Africa were plunged into extreme poverty by the pandemic in 2020, living on less than $1.90 a day, and an estimated 39 million people will be made equally destitute in 2021. The United Nations reports that poverty in Latin America rose in 2020 by 22 million people. The number of “new poor” in East Asia and the Pacific increased by at least 38 million. Globally, the World Bank estimates that between 119 to 124 million people so far have been impoverished by the coronavirus pandemic. “After the Second World War, the world has experienced mass trauma, because the Second World War affected many, many lives. And now, even with this COVID pandemic, with bigger magnitude, more lives have been affected,” WHO Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said at a news conference Friday. “Almost the whole world is affected, each and every individual on the surface of the world actually has been affected.”
‘Disturbing’: Rich Nations Vaccinating Person Per Second While Blocking Effort to Share Recipe With Poor Countries -- The governments of the world’s wealthiest countries—including the U.S., Canada, and the United Kingdom—are facing growing backlash for continuing to block an India and South Africa-led proposal to temporarily waive a restrictive global intellectual property rights agreement, an effort aimed at spurring broad-based production of coronavirus vaccines and getting the shots to poor nations struggling to administer a single dose. According to Oxfam International, a member of the People’s Vaccine Alliance, “rich countries are vaccinating at a rate of one person per second yet are siding with a handful of pharmaceutical corporations in protecting their monopolies against the needs of the majority of developing countries.”On Thursday—the one-year anniversary of the WHO’s official global pandemic declaration—representatives from the U.S. and other wealthy nations teamed up to thwart, once again, the push by more than 100 member nations of the World Trade Organization to suspend certain provisions of the so-called TRIPS Agreement, an intellectual property rights arrangement.The proposal was co-sponsored by 57 countries in the trade group and on Thursday support split largely along the lines of the WTO’s self-identified developed and developing countries,”Law360 reported. “The only developing country to oppose the waiver was Brazil.”Supporters of the waiver argue the prohibitive patent rights that governments have granted to private pharmaceutical companies are standing in the way of the kind of global vaccination campaign needed to stop the spread of a virus that does not respect borders. Fearing the emergence and normalization of “vaccine apartheid,” the head of the WHO and others haveraised alarm over the fact that more than 100 poor nations have not yet been able to start inoculating their populations.“It is unforgivable that while people are literally fighting for breath, rich country governments continue to block what could be a vital breakthrough in ending this pandemic for everyone in rich and poor countries alike,” Anna Marriott, Oxfam’s health policy manager, said in a statement.
For Doctors in Poor Countries, Vaccine Comes Too Late —Between treating patients at a hospital in northern Zambia, Kelvin Moonga closely followed the accelerating rollout of Covid-19 vaccines in countries like the U.S. and the U.K. Suffering from asthma and hypertension, Dr. Moonga knew he was at high risk if he caught the coronavirus as infections surged across the southern African nation.“If the vaccine comes here, I’ll be the first one to get it,” Dr. Moonga told a friend. But the 51-year-old surgeon, who was also a prolific author, never got his Covid-19 shot. He died on Jan. 24, days after testing positive for the virus and without saying goodbye to his wife and seven children, the youngest of whom had just turned 2 years old the day before. The global scramble for Covid-19 vaccines has left developing countries in Latin America, Asia and Africa far behind rich nations in inoculating their citizens. That means months after colleagues in developed countries have been immunized—and as some governments are now making shots available to their entire populations—healthcare workers in nations like Zambia are still risking their lives in the fight against the pandemic. They often do so without the protective gear that reduces the likelihood of infection, and knowing that sophisticated treatments, such as laboratory-made antibodies or at times even ventilators and oxygen, won’t be available to them should they catch the disease. Nowhere is the vaccine shortage more acute than in sub-Saharan Africa, which has administered fewer Covid-19 shots per capita than any other continent and where most countries are dependent on free immunizations provided by a World Health Organization-backed facility known as Covax. Since the start of the year, more than 500 healthcare workers, among them well-known public-health experts and experienced surgeons like Dr. Moonga, have died of Covid-19 in sub-Saharan Africa, according to the WHO. South Africa’s health ministry, one of the first in Africa to start vaccinating healthcare workers in mid-February, said they were three to four times as likely to catch Covid-19 as the general population. The cost of these deaths goes beyond the personal loss experienced by their families and friends. Because of limited training capacities and brain-drain to richer nations, sub-Saharan Africa has only about two doctors for every 10,000 people—about one-tenth of the WHO-recommended minimum and far below the 26 doctors per 10,000 people working in the U.S. That means the death of a surgeon like Dr. Moonga, who spent time treating patients in rural Zambia and was known to operate at no charge when people couldn’t afford hospital fees, can affect patient care for years to come. “Many more people are going to die because he can no longer provide these services,”
Indian Vaccine Manufacturers: U.S. Use of Wartime Export Controls Threatens World Vaccine Production --The Financial Times yesterday published a plea from Indian vaccine manufacturers, who lamented that the U.S. decision to invoke the Korean-War era Defense Production Act to protect crucial inputs threatens world vaccine supplies:Two of India’s top vaccine manufacturers making AstraZeneca and Johnson & Johnson shots have warned that the world’s vaccine production is being threatened by America’s pandemic export controls.Mahima Datla, chief executive of pharmaceutical company Biological E, said US suppliers claim they may not be able to fulfil orders to global clients because of Washington’s use of the Defense Production Act.Calling for urgent international intervention, Datla told the Financial Times: “It’s not only going to make the scale up for Covid vaccines difficult, but because of this it’s going to make manufacturing of routine vaccines extremely difficult.”Note that prior to the emergence of COVID-19, India’s vaccine manufacturers produced 60% of the world’s supply of vaccines. I don’t have more recent figures, which would also include COVID jabs.At the risk of overloading readers with vaccine posts, I decided to write this issue up, as it’s received far less attention than South Africa and India’s proposal for a temporary waiver of the World Trade Organization’s (WTO) intellectual property rights so as to ramp up global vaccine production – the subject of a Common Dreams crosspost that I launched earlier today,
Pakistan government admits “dangerous” third wave of COVID-19 infections underway Pakistan’s Islamist populist Tehrik-e-Insaaf government was forced to admit last Thursday that the country is in a “dangerous” situation, due to a fast spreading “third wave” of COVID-19 infections linked to the more contagious B.1.1.7 or “UK” variant. However, Prime Minister Imran Khan, who in the past has vociferously opposed any measures to fight the pandemic that would impact on Pakistan’s economy, is refusing to order urgently needed social and public health measures to stop the spread of the virus and support the country’s largely impoverished population. People enter the Empress Market, a colonial era market that is one of the busiest and most popular for shopping in Karachi. (IMF/ Creative Commons) Local authorities are haphazardly attempting to lessen the spike in new cases with limited “lockdowns.” In the face of the federal government’s inaction, seven cities in Punjab, the province that is home to more than half of all Pakistanis, imposed limited lockdowns as of Sunday, similar to the localized measures taken in March 2020. Three sub-sectors of Islamabad, the country’s capital, also began enforcing a lockdown Sunday night. Daily new cases have surpassed 2,000 for the first time since January with a positivity rate of 6.5 per cent, indicating an already significant presence of the virus. Official figures show only 607,453 confirmed COVID-19 cases after a year of the pandemic. Just 13,537 people are officially recorded as having died due to the virus. These modest totals conceal a far worse reality in a country where the virus was allowed to spread virtually unchecked and where the health care system was on life support long before the coronavirus arrived. A major contributor to the vast underestimation of infections by the official statistics is the lack of testing. Only around 173 tests per million people are being performed every day. Cities like Karachi and Lahore are densely populated, with millions forced to live in cramped slums. Speaking to a March 11 press conference, Planning, Reforms and Special Initiatives Minister Asad Umar said there was “no doubt” that the third wave of the pandemic is underway. Umar heads the government’s response to the pandemic through the National Command and Operation Centre (NCOC) it established for that purpose. “The phenomenon” that is driving this wave, Umar said, “is the spread of the UK [variant],” which he admitted has now become the “dominant” form of the virus in Pakistan.
We May Be Living in a Moment of Misplaced Optimism --Yves here. Richard Murphy is writing from a UK vantage, and the UK has reasons to curb its cheer. Even if the Covid front looks oh so much better, it’s still awfully close in geographical terms to the EU, which is undergoing yet another surge. And there’s Brexit to dampen the economy too. But the optimism in the US seems to be running ahead of events too (although Lambert’s one-stop Greed & Fear index was only at a mildly elevated 58 yesterday).Remember that the US is 8th in vaccination progress. From Statista as of March 17: And Nature explained on the 18th why herd immunity to Covid is “probably impossible”: That threshold is generally achievable only with high vaccination rates, and many scientists had thought that once people started being immunized en masse, herd immunity would permit society to return to normal. Most estimates had placed the threshold at 60–70% of the population gaining immunity, either through vaccinations or past exposure to the virus. But as the pandemic enters its second year, the thinking has begun to shift. In February, independent data scientist Youyang Gu changed the name of his popular COVID-19 forecasting model from ‘Path to Herd Immunity’ to ‘Path to Normality’. He said that reaching a herd-immunity threshold was looking unlikely because of factors such as vaccine hesitancy, the emergence of new variants and the delayed arrival of vaccinations for children.Gu is a data scientist, but his thinking aligns with that of many in the epidemiology community. “We’re moving away from the idea that we’ll hit the herd-immunity threshold and then the pandemic will go away for good,” says epidemiologist Lauren Ancel Meyers, executive director of the University of Texas at Austin COVID-19 Modeling Consortium. This shift reflects the complexities and challenges of the pandemic, and shouldn’t overshadow the fact that vaccination is helping. “The vaccine will mean that the virus will start to dissipate on its own,” Meyers says. But as new variants arise and immunity from infections potentially wanes, “we may find ourselves months or a year down the road still battling the threat, and having to deal with future surges”.The main points in the article are:
- It’s unclear whether vaccines prevent transmission
- Vaccine roll-out is uneven
- New variants change the herd-immunity equation
- Immunity might not last forever (an understatement!)
- Vaccines might change human behaviour
EU Threatens To Halt UK Vaccine Exports As COVID "Third Wave" Intensifies -- As Europe's vaccine rollout lags, COVID cases are exploding in Europe right now, prompting several member-state leaders to warn of an imminent "third wave" of the virus. As Nate Silver pointed out on twitter earlier, the EU and UK had similar rates of COVID cases per capita a month ago, while the US rate was about 30% higher. Now, the EU (slow vaccine rollout) has about 2x as many cases per capita as the US and 3-4x more cases than the UK. On Tuesday, the EU added more newly confirmed COVID cases than the US and the UK combined, with 303.6 cases per million people in the EU, vs 165.4 and 84.9 in the US and UK. The number of new cases is growing as worries about mutated COVID strains amplify concerns about the EU's slothful pace of vaccinations.COVID deaths in the EU have topped 550K this week while fewer than 1/10th of the blocs adults have been vaccinated.Now that some two dozen countries have halted the AstraZeneca-Oxford COVID jab, experts are worried that the pace of vaccinations will slow further as more Europeans decline to receive the shot. As Bill Blain wrote earlier, the EU's vaccine rollout is "in tatters", and the AstraZeneca controversy is only making the situation worse. The EMA, Brussels' equivalent to the FDA, has launched a hasty safety review of the vaccine while reiterating that any risks posed by the vaccine are far outweighed by the benefits. Now, the WHO is reiterating that line, as officials appear to finally be coming to terms with the fact that they have no credibility to claim that the vaccine is perfectly safe. After all, the accelerated testing period makes it virtually impossible to address any more-rare risks posed to patients with various medical conditions.But member state from Italy to Austria have reported cases of rare blood clots forming in patients with low blood-platlet counts. In one instance, a man died after receiving the vaccine. And while there's no evidence of a direct link, the Italian prosecutors have launched a manslaughter investigation. As the bloc's vaccination rate continues to drag...
Ireland suspends AstraZeneca vaccine amid blood clot reports— Irish health officials on Sunday recommended the temporary suspension of the AstraZeneca vaccine after reports of serious blood clotting after inoculations in Norway.Dr. Ronan Glynn, Ireland’s deputy chief medical officer, said the recommendation was made after Norway’s medicines agency reported four cases of blood clotting in adults after receiving the AstraZeneca vaccine.He said that while there was no conclusive link between the vaccine and the cases, Irish health officials are recommending the suspension of the vaccine’s rollout as a precaution.Danish, Norwegian and Icelandic authorities have taken similar precautionary steps. The World Health Organization and the European Union’s medicines regulator said earlier in the week that there was no link between the jab and an increased risk of developing a clot.The U.K.’s medicines regulator, the MHRA, said Thursday that “reports of blood clots received so far are not greater than the number that would have occurred naturally in the vaccinated population” and that “available evidence does not confirm that the vaccine is the cause.” It said people should still go and get their COVID-19 vaccine when asked to do so.
France, Italy will allow AstraZeneca vaccine if EU regulator says it's safe -The Italian government announced that France and Italy will allow the AstraZeneca vaccine to be used if the European Medicines Agency (EMA) approves it. Italian Prime Minister Mario Draghi and French President Emmanuel Macron had a phone call Tuesday and agreed to allow the AstraZeneca vaccine to be used as long as the EMA approves it first after both countries suspended it due to concerns that it causes blood clots, Bloomberg reported. Germany, France and Italy all suspended the use of the AstraZeneca coronavirus vaccine after multiple people in Europe got a blood clot following their vaccination, with some dying from it. However, the World Health Organization and the EMA have both said there is no connection between the AstraZeneca vaccine and the blood clots. Sweden, Latvia join nations halting AstraZeneca vaccine Italian regulator says decision to suspend AstraZeneca 'political' An Italian regulator said the move to block the vaccine was “political” and that the vaccine was safe. The EMA is expected to give a full assessment of the situation Thursday, according to Bloomberg. The agency is concerned this move affected public trust in the vaccine. As the European Union is being ridiculed for the slow rollout of the coronavirus vaccine, many countries are going after AstraZeneca, saying it failed to distribute the number of vaccines it promised in the original contract.
EU's drug regulator backs AstraZeneca vaccine after safety investigation (Reuters) - The EU’s drug watchdog said on Thursday it is still convinced the benefits of AstraZeneca’s COVID-19 vaccine outweigh the risks following an investigation into reports of blood disorders that prompted more than a dozen nations to suspend its use.“Overall, it is important to note that the very background incidence often used for comparisons to assess such (increased thromboembolic) events due to the Covid-19 pandemic is in flux, as COVID-19 itself leads to thromboembolic events in up to 16% of patients in hospital and up to 28% of patients in intensive care. The call also remains to follow future events very closely clinically and scientifically, because exact pathomechanisms have yet to be deciphered. And with regard to the inoculated, it is important to emphasise that increased vigilance for clinical symptoms of thrombosis or haemorrhage, not least headaches with regard to sinus thromboses, should also be displayed. “Overall, however, it can be clearly confirmed that the benefit of a Covid vaccination with AZD1222 outweighs the risk of a very rare thromboembolic complication. The EMA’s vote now provides clarity about the safety of this vaccine, which should now be vaccinated at a high rate after this safety pause in order to efficiently prevent the actual risk, i.e. sometimes serious medical harm from COVID-19.”
‘Afraid this won’t end’: Italy in grips of fresh COVID crisis – The hilly avenues in Ancona, an Italian port city on the Adriatic coast, are eerily devoid of traffic. On an ordinary sunny day, the city centre would be buzzing with people. But with a “red zone” declared on Monday across half of Italy’s 20 regions, there are just a few lone strollers around. On Thursday, Italy is marking a day of remembrance for COVID-19 victims, a year after the world watched in horror as a line of army trucks transported coffins out of the city of Bergamo for cremation. While that was the peak of the Italian tragedy, the pandemic is far from a distant memory. Under the strictest COVID-19 restrictions again, non-essential shops are shut and citizens are barred from meeting friends and family from outside their household bubble. Measures remain severe in the other half of the country too, with the island of Sardinia the only exception. Ancona, the capital of the Le Marche region, has been coloured in red in the alert map for nearly two weeks as new variants of the virus, more infectious and increasingly affecting younger patients, put pressure on hospitals. The local administration here issued a lockdown before the government’s nationwide orders. Last week, ambulances waited for up to 14 hours in the parking lot of the emergency wing at Torrette, Ancona’s largest hospital, to deliver patients. Italy has recorded the world’s sixth-worst COVID-19 death toll [File: Remo Casilli/Reuters] According to Michele Caporossi, director of the local hospital network, the emergency service had run out of beds to accommodate patients. At the time of writing, 31 out of 36 intensive care beds were occupied at Torrette. “For us, the pressure is the same as a year ago,” Andrea Sbaffo, the regional president of ANPAS, the National Association of Public Rescue, a network of emergency organisations, told Al Jazeera.
Latest Covid-19 Variant Discovered In France Isn’t Detected By Standard PCR Tests --A new variant of the novel coronavirus has been identified in the French region of Brittany. On Monday evening, the French Ministry of Health put out a statement that said the mutation was found by way of genomic sequencing in a cluster of infections in a hospital in the town of Lannion. Eight of 79 Covid-19 patients turned out to be carriers of the new variant, nicknamed “le variant breton.” Initially they tested negative with gold-standard PCR tests, despite presenting with typical symptoms of Covid-19. But later, coronavirus infection was confirmed with analysis of blood samples and tissue in the respiratory system. All 8 patients have since died.Preliminary research results do not indicate the new mutation causes more severe disease or is more contagious than other known variants. However, more research will be needed to establish this with certainty. Clinical investigators are also attempting to determine the variant’s response to vaccination and antibodies from prior coronavirus infection. What’s remarkable about this particular mutation is that the novel coronavirus may have already evolved in such a way as to bypass detection by conventional PCR tests. Last month, Finnish researchers also discovered a new variant that is undetected by at least one standard PCR test, though evidently not all conventional PCR tests, as appears to be the case with the new variant found in France. As a result, the World Health Organization has assigned the latest variant to the category “variants under investigation.” The announcement came as France and most of the rest of Europe battle a resurgence in coronavirus cases and hospitalizations, driven in part by the B.1.1.7 variant which has become dominant throughout the continent. New variants are not a surprise. Variants are popping up everywhere and will continue to do so. The novel coronavirus must evolve to survive. In fact, viruses constantly mutate. Some mutations are relatively benign, while others are more worrisome. Each time a new variant emerges researchers must investigate the extent to which it is more more deadly or contagious than other known mutations, and the degree to which it reduces vaccine efficacy. Furthermore, as is the case with the new variant found in France, clinical investigators must assess ways to adapt PCR testing protocols to possibly enable detection..
Surging COVID-19 cases in Europe, Brazil signal warning for US --Substantial surges in new coronavirus cases and hospitalizations in Europe and Brazil offer a worrying preview of what the United States faces in the coming weeks and months as the plummeting number of cases here begins to level off. The United States has reported an average of 54,740 cases per day over the past week, a steady decline from the apex of the outbreak in January, when the daily case count was about five times higher. Daily case counts stand about where they were in mid-October, and close to the apex of the summer surge that hit Sun Belt states particularly hard. But the precipitous drop that occurred through February is now nearing a plateau, one that could presage yet another spike in cases just as optimism about the course of the pandemic begins to take hold. Public health experts are nervously watching European nations, where a surge in cases is once again straining health care systems. European nations have reported 242 cases per million residents, a rate about 50 percent higher than the United States and one that has climbed by about a third since mid-February. The increase appears to be driven by spread among younger people, and by the emergence of the B.1.1.7 variant that studies show is substantially more infectious, even among children. That raises the specter that the variant will continue spreading widely even as older and more vulnerable people receive doses of vaccine. “Even if we are able to reduce the number of cases in the older age population of serious disease, we will pick up more in younger populations, which is exactly what we’ve seen in Europe,” said Michael Osterholm, director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Prevention at the University of Minnesota. The situation in Brazil is even more frightening. Hospitals in all but two of Brazil’s 27 states are north of 80 percent capacity, and more than 2,000 people are dying on a daily basis from COVID-19. Brazil’s seven-day average of new cases stands at 71,800, higher than at any point during the pandemic. President Jair Bolsonaro has continuously downplayed the threat of the virus. In remarks last week, he told Brazilians to “stop whining” about the virus that has killed more than 280,000 of his constituents. “What’s happening in Brazil is a tragedy,” Osterholm said. That level of crisis is not likely to return to the United States in the coming weeks, as more than 2 million people every day receive doses of one of the three vaccines approved by the Food and Drug Administration. But some models project more spread in the coming weeks, concentrated in the Upper Midwest, the Northeast and the mid-Atlantic. Hospital visits are rising in Detroit, Flint and Macomb County, Mich. Midwestern cities such as Minneapolis and Chicago are likely to see spikes in the coming weeks, as are the Washington metro area and New York City, according to the PolicyLab at the Children’s Hospital of Philadelphia. Positivity rates are rising in Phoenix, San Diego, Los Angeles and Las Vegas, a worrying sign of a potential spike.
Kremlin: Pressure on countries to refuse Russian COVID-19 vaccine 'quite unprecedented' -A Kremlin spokesman said on Tuesday that there is "unprecedented" pressure on countries to reject Russia's Sputnik COVID-19 vaccine. Reuters reported that Dmitry Peskov made the comments at a press conference after being asked about reports that the U.S. was pressuring countries to not accept imports of the Russian vaccine. “In many countries, the scale of pressure is quite unprecedented ... such selfish attempts to force countries to abandon any vaccines have no prospects,” Peskov said, according to the news service.
Coronavirus crisis spirals out of control in Papua New Guinea -- Papua New Guinea (PNG), the Pacific’s largest and most populous country, and one of the world’s most impoverished, is experiencing an uncontrolled coronavirus outbreak after appearing to have avoided large numbers of infections during 2020. The source of the new wave has not been identified. Hundreds of cases in the past few days have taken the national total to 2,226 and 26 reported deaths, with the capital Port Moresby the worst hit. This represents a sharp surge since the end of February when 1,316 COVID-19 and 13 COVID-19 deaths had been reported. According to a social media post by a senior gynecologist at Port Moresby General Hospital, Glen Mola, patients are dying of COVID-19 “every day,” suggesting the real death toll is far higher. By world standards, the official figures are low, but fewer than 50,000 tests have been carried out among a population of nine million, the sixth-lowest testing rate in the world. In many places outside the capital there is no testing at all. The Guardian cited PNG government sources saying the real case rate could be 10 times the official figure.. After lifting a two-week lockdown of the capital Port Moresby during a surge of cases last July, Prime Minister James Marape declared: “COVID-19 not only affects us health-wise but also economically. We must adjust to living with the COVID-19… we will not shut down our country again.”
Brazil COVID-19 Cases Climb As Deaths Overwhelm Hospitals And Funeral Services : NPR (podcast & transcript) Brazil is experiencing an even more dire COVID-19 with more people now dying there every day than in the United States. Hospitals and funeral services have become overwhelmed as cases climb. Brazil is taking over as the new global epicenter of the COVID-19 pandemic. It has registered more than 284,000 deaths, the world's second highest number. More people are dying in Brazil every day than in the U.S. from the coronavirus. Infections are surging, overwhelming hospitals and funeral services. As NPR's Philip Reeves reports, many fear that an even greater catastrophe is looming. REEVES: "Our health service is collapsing. People are going to die." Urban is mayor of Pirassununga, a city in southeast Brazil. This is a video he's posted to try to persuade people to take precautions. The collapse Urban talks about is now threatening most of Brazil because of the worsening pandemic. IC units at close to full or overflowing, yet the government vaccination program's barely started, says Denise Garrett, an infectious disease specialist. The vaccination is going really, really slow, although we do have the capacity and the infrastructure to do much better than what we are doing."There just aren't enough vaccines," says Brito. At present, Brazil only has two types - AstraZeneca and the Chinese-made CoronaVac. These two ones are not sufficient to respond to the size, to the magnitude of the epidemic in Brazil now. We are missing more vaccines, more doses.
Former State Dept Lead Investigator Says COVID-19 Escaped From Wuhan Lab, May Have Been Bioweapons Accident -The US State Department's former lead investigator who oversaw the COVID-19 task force into the origins of the virus believes SARS-CoV-2 escaped from the Wuhan Institute of Virology, and may have been the product of bioweapons research, according to Fox News. "The Wuhan Institute of Virology is not the National Institute of Health," David Asher - now a senior fellow at the Hudson institute - told Fox News in an interview, adding: "It was operating a secret, classified program. In my view, and I’m just one person, my view is it was a biological weapons program." Asher has long been a "follow the money" guy who has worked on some of the most classified intelligence investigations for the State Department and Treasury under both Democratic and Republican administrations. He led the team that uncovered the international nuclear procurement network run by the father of Pakistan's nuclear program, AQ Khan, and uncovered key parts of North Korea's secret uranium enrichment. He believes the Chinese Communist Party has been involved in a massive cover-up during the past 14 months. -Fox News "And if you believe, as I do, that this might have been a weapons vector gone awry, not deliberately released, but in development and then somehow leaked, this has turned out to be the greatest weapon in history," Asher told a Hudson Institute panel discussing the origins of the pandemic. "You've taken out 15 to 20 percent of global GDP. You've killed millions of people. The Chinese population has been barely affected. Their economies roared back to being number one in the entire G20."
Scientists discover three new strains of bacteria aboard the ISS --Scientists discovered three new strains of bacteria on the International Space Station, according to a study published on Monday. “Four strains belonging to the family of Methylobacteriaceae were isolated from different locations on the International Space Station (ISS) across two consecutive flights,” the study published in the journal frontiers in Microbiology. Kasthuri Venkateswaran and Nitin Kumar Singh, two of the paper’s authors from NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory, explained in a press release that the bacteria formed on plants that astronauts were growing in space. "To grow plants in extreme places where resources are minimal, isolation of novel microbes that help to promote plant growth under stressful conditions is essential," the two said. The discovery of these new bacteria in the plants could lead to breakthroughs in plant growth and space farming. “This will further aid in the identification of genetic determinants that might potentially be responsible for promoting plant growth under microgravity conditions and contribute to the development of self-sustainable plant crops for long-term space missions in future,” the study says. Three of the bacteria strains were found on surfaces of the ISS back in 2015 and 2016 and the fourth was collected in 2011.
Study uncovers safety concerns with some air purifiers The market for air purifiers is booming, but a new study has found that some air cleaning technologies marketed for COVID-19 may be ineffective and have unintended health consequences. The study, authored by researchers at Illinois Tech, Portland State University, and Colorado State University, found that cleaning up one harmful air pollutant can create a suite of others.Both chamber and field tests found that an ionizing device led to a decrease in somevolatile organic compounds (VOCs) including xylenes, but an increase in others, most prominently oxygenated VOCs (e.g., acetone, ethanol) and toluene, substances commonly found in paints, paint strippers, aerosol sprays and pesticides. According to the EPA, exposure to VOCs has been linked to a range of health effects from eye, nose and throat irritation, headaches, loss of coordination and nausea, to damage to liver, kidney and central nervous system, and some organics can cause cancer in animals, some are suspected or known to cause cancer in humans.The study, published this week in Building and Environment, mimicked real-world operating conditions for these ionization devices to test the effectiveness and potential to form chemical byproducts in environments similar to where we all live, work, and learn.Understandably, the "virus-killing" capability has drawn attention and been heavily featured in advertising over the past year and led to a flood of new and revamped products on the market.However, the study finds that the air purifier marketplace is fraught with inadequate test standards, confusing terminology, and a lack of peer-reviewed studies of their effectiveness and safety. Unlike air filtration (where air is pushed through a filter to remove airborne pollutants), there has been very little research on the effectiveness and side effects of "additive" air cleaning methods like ionizing devices. "Manufacturers and third-party test labs commonly demonstrate their product's effectiveness using chamber tests, but these test reports often don't use experimental conditions that could show how the device actually performs in real-world conditions," In everyday operating conditions, ions added to occupied environments such as a school or office building can react with other compounds present in indoor air, which can potentially lead to the formation of harmful byproducts such as formaldehyde and ozone. Ions can also rapidly bind to other gases and spur the formation of new 'ultrafine' particles, which are known air pollutants. But little independent data exists on these mechanisms.
Exposure to common chemical during pregnancy may reduce protection against breast cancer -- Low doses of propylparaben - a chemical preservative found in food, drugs and cosmetics - can alter pregnancy-related changes in the breast in ways that may lessen the protection against breast cancer that pregnancy hormones normally convey, according to University of Massachusetts Amherst research. The findings, published March 16 in the journal Endocrinology, suggest that propylparaben is an endocrine-disrupting chemical that interferes with the actions of hormones, says environmental health scientist Laura Vandenberg, the study's senior author. Endocrine disruptors can affect organs sensitive to hormones, including the mammary gland in the breast that produces milk. "We found that propylparaben disrupts the mammary gland of mice at exposure levels that have previously been considered safe based on results from industry-sponsored studies. We also saw effects of propylparaben after doses many times lower, which are more reflective of human intake," "Although our study did not evaluate breast cancer risk, these changes in the mammary tissue are involved in mitigating cancer risk in women." Hormones produced during pregnancy not only allow breast tissue to produce milk for the infant, but also are partly responsible for a reduced risk of breast cancer in women who give birth at a younger age. "Because pregnant women are exposed to propylparaben in many personal care products and foods, it is possible that they are at risk," Mogus says, adding that pregnant and breastfeeding women should try to avoid using products containing propylparaben and other parabens. "This chemical is so widely used, it may be impossible to avoid entirely," Mogus adds. "It is critical that relevant public health agencies address endocrine-disrupting chemicals as a matter of policy."
Hawaii Moves to Ban More Reef-Harming Sunscreens --Hawaii is on its way to banning more reef-damaging sunscreens. On Tuesday of last week, its state Senate approved Senate Bill 132, which would ban all sunscreens containing the chemicals avobenzone or octocrylene. The bill then moved to the House, where it passed its first reading on Thursday, March 11. If approved, it would build on a 2018 law that banned sunscreens containing the chemicals oxybenzone and octinoxate, which went into effect this January. "This is great news for our imperiled coral reefs and marine life," Maxx Phillips, Hawai'i director and staff attorney at the Center for Biological Diversity (CBD) said in response to the Senate vote. "People can protect their skin without harmful petrochemicals while Hawai'i protects public and environmental health."The bill comes amidst growing scientific awareness of the impact of common sunscreen chemicals on marine life. These chemicals can make corals more susceptible to viral infections and bleaching, as well as disrupting the reproductive systems of fish and other animals, the Honolulu Star Advertiser reported.In particular, octocrylene can disrupt human hormones and harm marine animals, according to the CBD. A soon-to-be-published study has found it can break down into the carcinogenic benzophenone, which also kills plants and disrupts reproduction. Avobenzone, meanwhile, is also an endocrine disruptor and can make coral less resilient to the high temperatures caused by the climate crisis."Studies show fish exposed to octocrylene exhibited endocrine disruption, brain deformities in larvae and reproductive toxicity," ecotoxicologist Craig Downs told the CBD. "Because octocrylene bioaccumulates, what does that mean for people eating these fish, especially pregnant women and keiki? Avobenzone may cause a dysfunction with the powerhouse of the cell, which may kill cells and induce a bleaching effect in corals."The CBD has petitioned the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) to ban these chemicals on the national level, but for now it falls to Hawaii to protect its unique ecosystems: Around one fourth of all of the plants, fish and invertebrates found on Hawaii's reefs are native to the archipelago.
Calls to poison centers about high-powered magnets increased by 444% after ban lifted - High-powered magnets are small, shiny magnets made from powerful rare earth metals. Since they started showing up in children's toys in the early 2000s and then later in desk sets in 2009, high-powered magnets have caused thousands of injuries and are considered to be among the most dangerous ingestion hazards in children. When more than one is swallowed, these high-powered magnets attract to each other across tissue, cutting off blood supply to the bowel and causing obstructions, tissue necrosis, sepsis and even death. The U.S. Consumer Product Safety Commission (CPSC) found them dangerous enough that in 2012 they halted the sale of high-powered magnet sets and instituted a recall followed by a federal rule that effectively eliminated the sale of these products. This rule was overturned by the U.S. Court of Appeals in December 2016. A recent study led by researchers at the Center for Injury Research and Policy, Emergency Medicine, and the Central Ohio Poison Center at Nationwide Children's Hospital along with the Children's Hospital at Montefiore (CHAM) analyzed calls to U.S. poison centers for magnet exposures in children age 19 years and younger from 2008 through October 2019 to determine the impact of the CPSC rule and the subsequent lift of the ban. The study, recently published in Journal of Pediatrics, found that the average number of cases per year decreased 33% from 2012 to 2017 after high-powered magnet sets were removed from the market. When the ban was lifted and high-powered magnet sets re-entered the market, the average number of cases per year increased 444%. There was also a 355% increase in the number of cases that were serious enough to require treatment in a hospital. Cases from 2018 and 2019 increased across all age groups and accounted for 39% of magnet cases since 2008.
U.S. Continues to Ship Illegal Plastic Waste to Developing Countries --The majority of the world is working together to reverse the massive plastic pollution problem. But, the world's leading producer of plastic waste, the U.S., hasn't signed on and isn't following the rules.In 2019, 187 countries, except for the U.S. and Haiti, voted to amend the 1989 Basel Convention to include plastic waste in the definition of hazardous materials, and to strictly limit how that trash is traded internationally. The binding framework hoped to make globally traded plastic waste more transparent and better regulated. It went into effect on Jan. 1, 2021.UN officials hoped the agreement would curb ocean plastic within five years. Supporters believed the convention would level the industry's global playing field by allowing developing nations such as Vietnam and Malaysia to refuse low-quality and hard-to-recycle plastics before they were shipped from developed nations, a UN transboundary waste chief told The Guardian.At the start of the year, when the new rules were just being implemented, the fact remained that the U.S. had not agreed to the amendment despite producing most of the world's plastic waste. Proponents held that the amendment would still apply to the U.S. anytime it tried to trade plastic waste with any of the participating 187 countries, many of which are poor and developing nations, CNN reported.According to the Basel Action Network (BAN), a nonprofit organization that lobbies against the plastic waste trade, participating nations are prohibited from trading waste with countries that have not ratified the Basel Convention, The Maritime Executive reported. This creates an effective ban on plastic waste trade between the U.S. and most of the world, and makes U.S. plastic export shipments "criminal traffic as soon as the ships get on the high seas," BAN told The Maritime Executive. Despite these new rules, U.S. Customs data from January shows that optimism about the convention's effectiveness may have been premature. According to The New York Times, American exporters continue to ship plastic waste overseas, despite the fact that receiving countries have agreed, per the Basel Convention, not to accept it. In fact, the new report showed that American exports of plastic scrap to poorer countries have barely changed and that overall exports of scrap plastics even rose. America's plastic waste shipments will continue to be associated with "uncontrolled dumping" in developing countries, and that much of the plastic waste collected in the U.S. under the guise of recycling actually ends up in overseas landfills and the oceans. In fact, a new Woods Hole studyfound that the U.S. is likely the world's third-largest source of ocean plastic, not just because it is the world's largest producer of plastic waste, but also because recyclables being sent to the developing world are often mishandled and discarded into the ocean. "This is our first hard evidence that nobody seems to be paying attention to the international law," Jim Puckett, BAN's executive director, told The Times regarding the new trade data. "As soon as the shipments get on the high seas, it's considered illegal trafficking." Because of the U.S.' continued disregard for the rules, it continues to ship illegal plastic waste "[a]nd the rest of the world has to deal with it," Puckett told The Times.
The Victims of Agent Orange the U.S. Has Never Acknowledged -- Susan Hammond, Jacquelyn Chagnon and Niphaphone Sengthong forded a rocky stream along the trail and came to a village of about 400 people called Labeng-Khok, once the site of a logistics base inside Laos used by the North Vietnamese Army to infiltrate troops into the South. In one of the bamboo-and-thatch stilt houses, the ladder to the living quarters was made from metal tubes that formerly held American cluster bombs. The family had a 4-year-old boy named Suk, who had difficulty sitting, standing and walking — one of three children in the extended family with birth defects. A cousin was born mute and did not learn to walk until he was 7. A third child, a girl, died at the age of 2. “That one could not sit up,” their great-uncle said. “The whole body was soft, as if there were no bones.” The women added Suk to the list of people with disabilities they have compiled on their intermittent treks through Laos’s sparsely populated border districts.Hammond, Chagnon and Sengthong make up the core of the staff of a nongovernmental organization called the War Legacies Project. Hammond, a self-described Army brat whose father was a senior military officer in the war in Vietnam, founded the group in 2008. Chagnon, who is almost a generation older, was one of the first foreigners allowed to work in Laos after the conflict, representing a Quaker organization, the American Friends Service Committee. Sengthong, a retired schoolteacher who is Chagnon’s neighbor in the country’s capital, Vientiane, is responsible for the record-keeping and local coordination.The main focus of the War Legacies Project is to document the long-term effects of the defoliant known as Agent Orange and provide humanitarian aid to its victims. Named for the colored stripe painted on its barrels, Agent Orange — best known for its widespread use by the U.S. military to clear vegetation during the Vietnam War — is notorious for being laced with a chemical contaminant called 2,3,7,8-Tetrachlorodibenzo-P-dioxin, or TCDD, regarded as one of the most toxic substances ever created.The use of the herbicide in the neutral nation of Laos by the United States — secretly, illegally and in large amounts — remains one of the last untold stories of the American war in Southeast Asia. Decades later, even in official military records, the spraying of Laos is mentioned only in passing. When the Air Force in 1982 finally released its partially redacted official history of the defoliation campaign, Operation Ranch Hand, the three pages on Laos attracted almost no attention, other than a statement from Gen. William Westmoreland, a former commander of U.S. forces in Vietnam, that he knew nothing about it — although it was he who ordered it in the first place. Laos remained a forgotten footnote to a lost war. To those who followed the conflict’s aftermath intimately, this was hardly surprising. Only in the last two decades has the United States finally acknowledged and taken responsibility for the legacy of Agent Orange in Vietnam, committing hundreds of millions of dollars to aiding the victims and cleaning up the worst-contaminated hot spots there.
Murder Hornet Season Is Coming: Scientists Worried About Honey Bees Ask the Public for Help --The so-called murder hornet, known for its "excruciating" sting and ability to wipe out an entire bee-colony in just a few hours, is coming out of hibernation and scientists need help in eradicating them, VICE reported. Scientists in the U.S. and Canada announced a "war" against the murder hornet as it begins to establish its nests in spring, AP reported. Over the past two years, the world's largest hornets have been spotted in British Columbia and Washington state. "This is not a species we want to tolerate here in the United States," Sven-Erik Spichiger of the Washington state Department of Agriculture said, according to AP. "We may not get them all, but we will get as many as we can." Scientists are encouraging citizens to begin setting up an orange juice or a brown sugar-based trap in July, The Washington State Department of Agriculture wrote in a statement. Residents in Whatcom, Skagit, San Juan, Island, Jefferson, and Clallam counties are especially encouraged to participate. While the department and several agencies, including Washington State University, are planning their own eradication efforts, citizen reportings are necessary to cover as much ground as possible. Last year, half of the confirmed reports of the murder hornet in Washington and all confirmed reports in British Columbia were from members of the public, the department wrote. While the murder hornet, more commonly known as the Asian giant hornet, is rarely deadly, its venom can damage human tissue if stung, CNN reported. "It's an absolutely serious danger to our health and well-being," Paul van Westendorp of the British Columbia Ministry of Agriculture, Food and Fisheries told AP. "These are intimidating insects." The hornets kill at most a few dozen people a year in Asian countries, according to AP. At the same time, hornets, wasps and bees found in the U.S. kill an average of 62 people a year, AP reported. But the giant insect is not after humans, posing instead a more serious threat to bee populations. Just a small group of Asian giant hornets, for example, can destroy an entire honey bee hive in a few hours, AP reported. "During one recorded slaughter examined by researchers, each hornet killed one bee every 14 seconds, using powerful mandibles to decapitate its prey," The New York Times reported.In a state that relies on honey bees to pollinate its multibillion-dollar agricultural industry, beekeepers and entomologists in Washington worry for the future if the murder hornet is able to establish itself in North America. "Most people are scared to get stung by them," Ruthie Danielsen, a beekeeper in Birch Bay, Washington told The New York Times. "We're scared that they are going to totally destroy our hives."
Immature locust swarms decline but still persisting in Kenya and Ethiopia - Immature swarms continue to decline in Kenya and Ethiopia due to the ongoing control operations, according to an update by the UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) on Tuesday, March 16, 2021. However, swarms are persisting in the absence of rainfall. International experts on migratory pests urged the affected countries to deploy drones to boost the fight against the pests. In Kenya, small immature swarms were seen between Mt. Kenya and the Rift Valley in Nyandarua, Nakuru, and Baringo counties in the past few days. In Ethiopia, immature swarms persist in the Ahmar Mountains east of the Rift Valley but appear to be declining in southern SNNP. There is cautious optimism of signs that the current upsurge is winding down in the Horn of Africa, especially if poor rains limit breeding this spring, followed by equally poor rains during the summer in northeast Ethiopia," said FAO. "However, it will be essential to sustain current survey and control operations in Ethiopia, Kenya, and Somalia, and maintain vigilance in case there is any unusual rainfall."As of present, swarms continue to decline due to ongoing control operations. However, showers may occur by the end of March in some areas, which could trigger breeding. Stephen Njoka, director of the Desert Locust Control Organization for Eastern Africa, advised the use of drone technology to combat the insects. "The deployment of drones is a key breakthrough in surveillance of the locusts, even though they are yet to be useful in spraying due to their limited load capacity," he stated in a virtual briefing in Nairobi. Daniel Willy, program officer with African Agricultural Technology Foundation (AATF), called for a regional coordinated approach for the emergency registration of pesticides.
'You can't escape the smell': mouse plague grows to biblical proportions across eastern Australia - Drought, fire, the Covid-19 pestilence and an all-consuming plague of mice. Rural New South Wales has faced just about every biblical challenge nature has to offer in the last few years, but now it is praying for another – an almighty flood to drown the mice in their burrows and cleanse the blighted land of the rodents. Or some very heavy rain, at least.It seems everyone in the rural towns of north-west NSW and southernQueensland has their own mouse war story. In posts online, they detail waking up to mouse droppings on their pillows or watching the ground move at night as hundreds of thousands of rodents flee from torchlight beams.Lisa Gore from Toowoomba told Guardian Australia her friend stripped the fabric of her armchair when it began to smell, only to find a nest of baby mice in the stuffing.Dubbo resident Karen Fox walked out of the shower on Friday morning to see a mouse staring at her from the ceiling vent. There’s nothing she can do, she says, because the stores are sold out of traps. In Gulargambone, north of Dubbo, Naav Singh arrives five hours early for work at the 5Star supermarket to clean up after the uninvited vermin visitors. “We don’t want to go inside in the morning sometimes. It stinks, they will die and it’s impossible to find all the bodies … Some nights we are catching over 400 or 500,” he says. Before opening, Singh must empty the store’s 17 traps, sweep up the droppings and throw out any products the mice have attacked. “We have got five or six bins every week just filled with groceries that we are throwing out,” he says. The family-run business has had to drastically reduce stock, put whatever they can in thick containers, use empty fridges to store the rest. Nothing in the store is safe, with mice even chewing their way into plastic soft drink bottles. “They were running around faster after that,” Singh jokes. After years of drought, rural NSW and parts of Queensland enjoyed a bumper crop due to the recent wet season. But this influx of new produce and grains has led to an explosion in the mouse population. Locals say they started noticing the swarms up north in October and the wave of rodents has been spreading south ever since, growing to biblical proportions.
ASF Poland: Virus hits farm in the west with 16,000 pigs --The first outbreak of African Swine Fever on a farm in Poland in 2021 took place in Western Poland, with almost 16,000 pigs on-site.The case was confirmed on March 17, according to a report by Poland’s General Veterinary Inspectorate (GVI). It is the first outbreak that was confirmed in the new year. It was found near Niedźwiady in Lubusz province. On the map the location is shown as a professional site, which is surrounded by ASF outbreaks in wild boar.According to regulations, a 10km zone has been installed around the farm. The entire farm, which held 15,938 pigs, will have to be depopulated. With that size, it is the second largest pig farm in Poland to be depopulated because of ASF since the outbreaks started in 2014. Only in March 2020 a farm in Niedoradz, Lubusz province, Western Poland had more pigs on site (almost 24,000).Pig farm number 13 in Western PolandSince the first discovery of ASF in Poland, the virus has been confirmed on 341 different farm sites. In 2020 in total 103 farms tested positive, which was the highest number per year so far. It is perhaps not so surprising, taking into account that a new virus cluster came into existence in Western Poland in November 2019. The current virus outbreak constitutes case number 13 on a farm site in Western Poland. The majority of wild boar cases in Western Poland (3,300) were found in Lubusz province.
Songbirds are dying in California, and bird feeders are partially to blame, wildlife officials say -Songbirds are dying across Northern and Central California, and a common backyard feature is facilitating their fate.Since December, the California Department of Fish and Wildlife (CDFW) has been “inundated with calls from residents who are finding sick or dead finches at bird feeders,” the department said in a press release last month.Most reports of dead birds have emerged from the Bay Area, Central Coast and Sierra Nevada. After an investigation, CDFW determined the cause of death to be an outbreak of Salmonellosis, a disease caused by Salmonella bacteria.Here’s how bird feeders come into play: Salmonellosis is easily transmittable from bird to bird, and its spread is facilitated by the congregation of birds. Where do birds often get together? Where the food is.“Salmonellosis is almost exclusively reported from locations with bird feeders where birds congregate,” the CDFW said.The agency urged residents to remove bird feeders and birdbaths and to instead let birds feed on natural seeds. Birds get sick with Salmonellosis when they “ingest food, water or come into contact with objects … contaminated with feces from an infected bird,” the CDFW noted. “Sick birds often appear weak, have labored breathing, and may sit for prolonged periods with fluffed or ruffled feathers.” Residents can report dead birds to the CDFW’s Investigations Laboratory using this mortality reporting form, which helps biologists monitor the outbreak. If you find a sick bird, call a local wildlife rehabilitation center for advice. The CDFW urges those handling dead birds, bird feeders and baths to wear gloves and thoroughly wash their hands.
Curiosity Is Killing Harpy Eagles in Central and South America -- The rancher peers at an enormous bird high in the treetops. Reining in his horse, he squints upward. It's not moving; maybe it will still be there when he gets back. An hour later, he returns with a gun. The huge animal is still there, motionless. Taking aim, he fires, and the heavy body comes crashing to the ground. He picks it up, marveling at its size and the incredible crest of feathers around its head. He strokes the soft gray and white plumes, perhaps feeling a sudden pang of sadness that the proud head is now lolling lifeless, as he puts the carcass over his saddle to show his family. This scenario and others like it are impacting harpy eagle (Harpia harpyja) populations across Central and South America, according to a scientific paper recently published in the Journal of Raptor Research. Despite being the largest raptor in South America and the national bird of Panama, scientists know little about the extent to which the species is persecuted by humans.In the study, the researchers found a total of 132 documented cases where a harpy eagle was killed or captured between 1950 and 2020, including 21 cases from Colombia and Panama that had never before been published in scientific journals."This story can be used to repair what has been done to this magnificent species over the last seven decades," said Helena Aguiar-Silva, of the University of São Paulo and Projeto Harpia, Brazil, one of the scientists who compiled the persecution data set.The harpy eagle's range stretches from Guatemala and Belize in Central America, down into South America to Bolivia and Paraguay. Occasionally the birds are noted as far north as Mexico or as far south as Argentina.Aguiar-Silva said there probably used to be stable harpy eagle populations in both those countries, but they have been driven locally extinct by the expansion of hunting and farming, as they were in El Salvador.While the species' range spans more than half a continent, that doesn't mean it's abundant. Surveys show that it is never locally common. The bird is slow to reach sexual maturity, raising just one chick per pair every two or three years, and the number of harpy eagles is decreasing. Aguiar-Silva said the declines and local extinctions, combined with the evidence that it is frequently persecuted, should serve as a basis to reanalyze the global conservation status of the species. While the harpy eagle's current conservation status on the IUCN Red List is "near threatened" at the international level, individual countries have placed it in more critical categories: it is classified as vulnerable in countries including Brazil, Peru and Venezuela, and critically endangered in Nicaragua.
Denver weather: Colorado blizzard drops 27.1 inches of snow on Denver -The biggest snowstorm in the Denver area in nearly 20 years brought 27.1 inches, the National Weather Service in Boulder reports — with a bit more snow expected early this week.While temperatures in the Denver area will be in the mid- to high-30s on Monday and Tuesday, another inch of snow is expected Tuesday evening into Wednesday morning.“We obviously wont be coming close to what we saw this weekend,” National Weather Service meteorologist Zach Hiris said.It finally stopped snowing in most of the metro around midnight Monday, by which point most observers had clocked readings of between 18 to 24 inches, with scattered reports of 24 to 30 inches, Hiris said.The city’s official measurement point at Denver International Airport recorded more snow than most of the rest of the area, Hiris said, in part because it got a head start Saturday.“They actually did a lot better than most of the owntown area in that first wave,” he said.Though the heavy snow started later than meteorologists had initially expected, the blizzard camped out once it did arrive.“The trend for that storm, even within the first few hours of he snow starting on Saturday, is that it just kept getting slower, which kept pushing back the start time of the snow,” Hiris said. “That delayed onset definitely messed with our initial forecast but our final amounts were pretty good — slower to start, but also slower to get out of here.” It ended up being the fourth biggest in recorded Denver history. Outside of the 2003 storm, which brought 31.8 inches, this weekend’s was the city’s biggest snowstorm since 1946.
Colorado storm: Winter Storm Xylia cancels Denver flights -More than 2,000 flights have been canceled over the weekend at Denver International Airport as a major snowstorm strikes the region.The National Weather Service has issued a winter storm warning, saying it expects 18 to 24 inches of heavy, wet snow to fall in Denver and Boulder from Saturday afternoon through Sunday night. Some areas along the Front Range foothills were expected to receive up to 30 inches.The Colorado Department of Transportation warned that road closures are highly likely and asked people not to make unnecessary trips.The highways most likely to be affected included Interstate 25 from Colorado Springs to Wyoming, including Denver and Monument Hill; I-70 to Limon; and I-76 to Ft. Morgan, the department said. Denver International had a busy morning Saturday with passengers trying to beat the storm, but about 750 flights later in the day were canceled, airport spokeswoman Emily Williams said. Just about all Sunday flights had been canceled as well — nearly 1,300.
Colorado blizzard is now Denver’s 4th largest storm on record – A historic blizzard that blasted Colorado on Sunday dumped 2 feet of snow in the Denver area, knocked out power to tens of thousands of people, stranded others in their vehicles, shut down major roadways and will leave many schools and government offices closed Monday.The weekend snowstorm became the fourth-largest ever recorded in Denver with 24.1 inches of snow at the city’s official measurement point at Denver International Airport as of 6 p.m. Sunday — with snow still expected to fall for several more hours.That total just beat the 23.8 inches of snow that fell on Denver in December 1982, and is the city’s biggest snowfall since 31.8 inches fell in March 2003. While snow began falling Saturday night, the storm reached blizzard conditions around noon Sunday, said meteorologist Jim Kalina with the National Weather Service in Boulder. That means as the snow fell, winds accelerated to at least 35 mph and reduced visibility beyond a quarter mile for longer than three hours. Kalina expected those blizzard conditions to continue until about midnight Sunday. In that time he anticipated another 2 to 5 inches of snowfall in the metro area. Totals around the rest of the metro area included 16 inches elsewhere in Denver, 24 inches in Arvada and 23.1 inches in Aurora and nearly 20 inches in Boulder, according to National Weather Service records. Colorado’s ski towns saw between 3 and 16 inches of snow, early weather reports showed. Reppert noted that Nederland reported about 36 inches of snowfall and that some areas will likely “see close to 40 inches by the time it’s all said and done.” Snowfall was forecast to continue into early Monday morning, stopping around 5 a.m., Kalina said. Airlines canceled hundreds of flights scheduled to leave DIA on Sunday as the storm intensified, though about 10 planes did manage to take off early in the morning. By midday, the airport shut down all six runways due to blowing snow and poor visibility, though the terminal and concourses remained open to passengers. And late in the afternoon, DIA officials asked people not to attempt to drive to the airport, declaring Peña Boulevard impassable with multiple vehicle stranded along the roadway. Early in the day, the wet, heavy snowfall forced officials to close multiple stretches of Interstate 70 and 25 near Denver, far out on the Eastern Plains and in northern Colorado leading up to the Wyoming border. For every truck AAA Colorado had out on the road Sunday afternoon there were eight calls for emergency service, spokesman Skyler McKinley said in a tweet. In addition to that, at least four of the organization’s trucks had to be rescued as well. “You know it’s not safe to drive even if the AAA trucks are getting stuck,”
Snow storm in Colorado, Wyoming heads Midwest, thunderstorms in South - After a "crippling" winter storm dumped up to 4 feet of snow in the Rocky Mountains – closing roads, canceling flights and prompting avalanche warnings over the weekend – the storm on Monday was expected to dump snow on the Midwest and spark thunderstorms in the South."A band of moderate snow with some mixed precipitation is moving across the Midwest and should reach the upper Midwest and lower Michigan by tonight," forecasters at the National Weather Service said Monday morning.The storm will cause "a burst of heavy snow" in Iowa and Minnesota before moving east, said AccuWeather senior meteorologist Dan Pydynowski. Eastern parts of South Dakota and Nebraska, Iowa, southern Minnesota, Wisconsin, Illinois and Michigan could all see the storm's effects.The weather service in La Crosse, Wisconsin, and Des Moines, Iowa, said the snow could fall at a rate of over an inch per hour. Up to 18 inches could fall in areas along the Iowa and Minnesota border, according to AccuWeather.The storm will also hit Chicago by the afternoon but turn into a wintry mix, Pydynowski said. Mixed precipitation was expected in the Appalachians by Monday night, the weather service said.
Major winter storm described by NWS as 'historic and crippling' slams U.S. A major winter storm described by the National Weather Service (NWS) as "historic and crippling" lashed parts of the U.S., bringing up to 1.2 m (4 feet) of snow over the weekend. More than 2 000 flights were canceled and over 54 000 customers were left without power on Sunday, March 14, 2021. The NWS initially warned of a "historic and crippling" winter storm that will significantly impact all of southeast Wyoming and western Nebraska panhandle, adding that "widespread blizzard conditions" would make travel "dangerous or impossible."The storm rolled into parts of the Rocky Mountains late Saturday, March 13, dropping heavy snow and rain.Up to 61.2 cm (24.1 inches) of snow was registered in Denver, Colorado on Sunday, making it the city's fourth-largest snowstorm since 1881. The previous 4th strongest snowfall record was 60.4 cm (23.8 inches) set in December 1982. This was also Denver's largest snowstorm since 2006.As of Sunday afternoon, more than 54 000 customers were without power in northern Colorado counties, including the Denver metro area. It knocked out power to tens of thousands of people, stranded motorists on roads, shut down major roadways and prompted closures of many schools and government offices on Monday, March 15. The Denver International Airport canceled some 2 000 flights due to difficulties involving airport personnel in getting into work because of the severe weather."This has definitely been a historic storm," said Alan Reppert, senior meteorologist with AccuWeather. "Definitely something that we can thankfully look at as a very rare occurrence."In Wyoming, the storm brought wind gusts of up to 88 km/h (55 mph) and heavy snow, closing several parts of I-80 and 8-25. Officials reported that snowplows and emergency vehicles were being hemmed by strong winds and drifts.At least 25.8 cm (10.2 inches) of snow fell in Cheyenne, breaking the record for the heaviest 2-day snowfall. According to NWS Cheyenne, the previous record was 9.9 cm (25.2 inches) set in November 1979.United Airlines suspended all weekend flights out of Cheyenne Regional Airport, where more than 53 cm (21 cm) of snow was reported.Travelers were stranded for hours on I-40 in Arizona after parts of the road were closed due to several crashes. In Nebraska, I-80 westbound was shut at North Platte exits 177 and 179.
Texas winter storm caused at least 57 deaths, most from hypothermia --At least 57 people died in Texas as a result of last month’s winter storm, according to preliminary data the state health department released Monday.The largest number of deaths — at least 25 — occurred in Harris County, the Texas Department of State Health Services reported.The deaths occurred in at least 25 counties between Feb. 11 and March 5, the state agency said. The majority of verified deaths were associated with hypothermia, but health officials said some were also caused by motor vehicle wrecks, “carbon monoxide poisoning, medical equipment failure, falls and fire.”The preliminary data is “subject to change” as state disaster epidemiologists gather additional information and additional deaths are verified, the agency said. The information will be updated weekly, it said.The winter storm plunged large swaths of Texas into subfreezing temperatures and overwhelmed the state's electricity infrastructure, causing massive power outages. At the height of the crisis, nearly 4.5 million Texas homes and businesses were without power. That's because nearly half of the total power generation capacity for the main state electricity grid was offline as weather conditions caused failures in every type of power source: natural gas, coal, wind and nuclear. Millions of Texans went dayswithout power.In marathon legislative hearings, Texas lawmakers grilled public regulators and energy grid officials about how power outages happened and why Texans weren't given more warnings about the danger. But policy observers blamed the power system failure on the legislators and state agencies, who they say did not properly heed the warnings of previous storms or account for more extreme weather events warned of by climate scientists. Instead, Texas prioritized the free market.
NOAA warns of water use cutbacks, fires and low levels in reservoirs amid significant drought - Dry weather is likely to persist in the U.S. in the coming months, with the possibility of water use cutbacks in California and the Southwest as more than half of the country experiences moderate-to-severe drought conditions, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) said Thursday. NOAA’s Spring Outlook report stated that the U.S. could face the most significant spring drought since 2013, with the potential to impact roughly 74 million people across the country. The federal weather agency said that the drought conditions stretching from the Pacific Coast to the Great Plains and upper Midwest have largely been spurred by the drier weather in the Southwest and a failed 2020 summer monsoon season. NOAA predicts that warmer-than-average temperatures this spring and low soil moisture will cause drought conditions to further expand into the southern and central Great Plains and southern Florida. Mary Erickson, deputy director of NOAA’s National Weather Service, said in a statement along with Thursday’s report that the Southwest, “which is already experiencing widespread severe to exceptional drought, will remain the hardest hit region in the U.S., and water supply will continue to be a concern this spring in these drought-affected areas.” "This is a major change from recent years where millions were impacted by severe flooding,” she added. “Nonetheless, NOAA's forecasts and outlooks will continue to serve as a resource for emergency managers and community decision-makers as they navigate all potential extreme seasonal weather and water events." The weather conditions going into April, May and June have prompted concerns from weather service and agriculture officials on the potential need for water use cutbacks in California and the Southwest, as well as increased chances of wildfires, damage to wheat crops and low levels in several key reservoirs such as Lake Mead and Lake Powell. The chances of wildfires come after the country faced an unprecedented 2020 season of burning throughout the West, though UCLA climate scientist Daniel Swain told The Associated Press Thursday that wildfires may not be as bad this year, with so much vegetation already burned and the drought slowing regrowth. Thursday’s national Drought Monitor showed almost 66 percent of the U.S. in abnormally dry conditions, which the AP noted is the highest mid-March level recorded since 2002. With the more intense droughts, however, NOAA on Thursday said there will be limited moderate flooding this spring, with no areas having greater than a 50 percent chance of major flooding for the first time since 2018.
Damaging tornado outbreak hits South U.S., severe weather shifting into the Southeast - (pics, videos) A severe weather outbreak lashed the South U.S. on Wednesday, March 17, 2021, unleashing tornadoes that led to serious damage to homes and businesses, particularly in Alabama and Mississippi. NOAA Storm Prediction Center (SPC) received a total of 25 tornado reports-- 17 in Alabama, 3 in Mississippi, 2 in Montana, and 1 each in Louisiana, Arkansas, and Missouri. The outbreak is forecast to shift into the Southeast on Thursday, March 18, according to the National Weather Service (NWS).Ahead of the severe weather's onslaught, SPC issued a high-risk alert -- very rare for the month of March.It was the first time the center declared a Level 5 out of 5 alert since 2012, highlighting the storm's exceptional intensity.The SPC received a total of 25 tornado reports, mostly from Alabama, where many trees and several poles were blown down, and structures and homes were damaged. At least three homes were destroyed in Chilton County, which saw two possible tornadoes. "About a minute before it got here, we jumped in the hall closet, a little, small closet. And just we heard it. You know, the sound from the house coming down," resident Jimmy Baker told WSFA. Two people sustained minor injuries in Clarke County after they were thrown from their home, officials said.Almost 16 000 homes and businesses in Alabama were without power as of Thursday morning. Overall, more than 30 000 customers lost power across other affected states, including Louisiana, Arkansas, Mississippi, Georgia, and Florida.In Moundville, south of Tuscaloosa, several homes were shown with holes in their roofs. Local media reported 20 to 30 homes in the area that sustained mostly minor damage. In Mississippi, a dispatcher in Wayne County told weather.com that several homes and chicken houses were damaged. Officials were yet to confirm the extent of the damage as severe weather is ongoing and crews had not been able to visit the scene.
Persistent heavy rains leave 7 people dead in Colombia, significant increase in precipitation expected (vidoes) Heavy rain has been affecting western Colombia since March 11, 2021, causing flooding and landslides that have resulted in at least seven fatalities as of Tuesday, March 16, and thousands of families affected. Since January 1, 15 people have lost their lives across the state and two remain missing.The affected area in western Colombia is the Valle del Cauca Department, where rivers Pance and Cauca overflowed. As of Tuesday, seven deaths have been reported-- one each in Florida, Pradera, Palmira, and Caicedonia due to flooding, and three in Santiago de Cali due to a landslide.Severe weather also damaged homes and buildings. In the Miranda Municipality, three houses were damaged and 15 people were affected during flooding on Sunday, March 14.Since January this year, at least 146 landslide events, 45 floods, 32 flash floods, and 24 storms have hit the country, which affected at least 5 845 families. A total of 15 people have lost their lives, 16 others have been injured, and two remain missing.Heavy rains are expected to continue through the rest of March, with mostly cloudy skies in the Amazon, Andean, and Pacific regions."The country is currently impacted by the La Niña phenomenon," explained the Institute of Hydrology, Meteorology, and Environmental Studies. "[This] is why a significant increase in precipitation volumes is expected in the central-western departments of the Caribbean Region, northern and central Andean Region, northern Pacific Region, wide sectors of the Orinoquia, and north of the Amazon region."
Deadly floods sweep through Kinshasa and Brazzaville in Congo and DR Congo - Severe flash flooding hit the neighboring cities of Kinshasa in DR Congo and Brazzaville in the Republic of Congo after heavy rains on Tuesday, March 16, 2021. At least four people died, while several houses and infrastructure were damaged. Heavy downpours triggered severe flash flooding in Kinshasa and Brazzaville, resulting in fatalities and damaged homes. As of Wednesday, March 17, local media reported evacuations in areas near the Tsieme River in Brazzaville after floodwaters swept through homes and paralyzed the city. In DR Congo, torrential rains caused dikes to break, sending waters to many houses. Four children died in the floods and several houses were swept away in Kisenso Municipality, east of the city. The Ndjili bridge collapsed, causing major transport problems from and to N'Djili International Airport. The incident also cut off some communities of Tshangu District from the rest of Kinshasa. According to residents, many of them lost valuables as flooding invaded their homes. The deputy mayor of Masina added that flooding also infiltrated markets. In several neighborhoods, flooding caused the collapse of walls.
Evacuations in NSW due to potentially record and life-threatening flooding, Australia –= Residents across New South Wales, Australia, have been ordered to evacuate on Friday, March 19, 2021, after severe flooding-- described by the Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) as "potentially life-threatening"-- swept through the state. Severe inundations are already occurring along major rivers, with some expected to surpass record levels overnight. "We are seeing very intense, very heavy, potentially life-threatening rainfall happening on the mid-north coast right now," the BOM stated. "We're seeing rainfall totals of over 100 mm (4 inches) falling in about an hour. That is very dangerous rainfall." Residents in low-lying areas along the lower Macleay River are the latest to be urged to evacuate by Friday evening. People in low-lying areas in Kempsey were also warned that they may need to flee as waters are expected to severely flood the CBD overnight. Other residents told to evacuate were those in some properties in Kings Point, the Macksville CBD, Bulahdelah, North Haven, Dunbogan, Camden Head, Laurieton, and Port Macquarie. In Nambucca, heavy rains have caused a landslip, while roads have been washed away further south in Port Stephens.Severe flooding is already taking place along several major rivers, with the Hastings and Wauchope expected to exceed record levels overnight. Multiple warnings and evacuation alerts are in force for the NSW mid-north coast. More flood warnings are in place across a dozen rivers, including in greater Sydney and the far west area. On Saturday, March 20, Sydney is expected to bear the brunt of the severe weather as the system moves south."We might see quite a significant flash flooding and we've got a flood watch current for both the Nepean and Hawkesbury rivers," said Justin Robinson, a flood forecaster in NSW with the BOM."We're likely to see a spill from Warragamba Dam and that will then impact those communities downstream." During the past 24 hours, the State Emergency Services (SES) attended to at least 57 flood rescues and responded to more than 1 300 calls for help.Heavy downpours are expected to continue into next week and may bring the heaviest rainfall since February 2020. Inland NSW is also forecast to be drenched by another system in the coming week.
Why some US Black neighborhoods face higher flood risk --Homes in U.S. neighborhoods with large Black or minority populations once marked as undesirable for loans are in greater danger of flooding caused by climate change, according to a study released Monday. In the 1930s, the practice of "redlining" took place when banks and insurers refused loans in parts of cities mainly with large minority populations marked in red on maps, reducing opportunities to own homes and investment in those areas. These neighborhoods tended to be in the least appealing areas, such as on flood plains, and this was compounded by a lack of updates to infrastructure over time, like drainage systems or green spaces, to deal with flooding. According to new analysis of 38 major cities by real estate brokerage Redfin, there are now $107 billion worth of homes in formerly "redlined" areas at high flood risk compared to $85 billion worth of homes in areas marked green as best for loans. Redfin said this disproportionately impacted Black people, as nearly 60% of households in neighborhoods once designated undesirable for mortgage lending were non-white, compared with 40% of households in neighborhoods deemed desirable for loans. "That policy has a lingering effect, even now, because there were decades of disinvestment in those communities," Redfin senior economist Sheharyar Bokhari, co-author of the study, told the Thomson Reuters Foundation. "When you look at those (redlining) maps, they look strikingly similar to high flood risk (maps)," he added. The findings come as U.S. President Joe Biden prepares his $2 trillion infrastructure plan which is expected to focus on tackling climate change. During the 2020 election, he said that 40% would go to disadvantaged communities, which evidence suggests are more severely impacted by environmental hazards like pollution, extreme heat and storms associated with the warming climate. In Sacramento, California, nearly 22% of homes in former redlined areas face a high flood risk compared to about 12% in "greenlined" areas, the largest gap of any city, according to the Redfin found. New York had the second biggest gap, followed by Boston and Chicago.
FERC relicenses Conowingo Dam for 50 years, finalizes Md. settlement -A federal commission has granted the Conowingo Dam's operator a new 50-year license to continue producing hydropwer in a case activists say will have a profound impact on states' ability to regulate water pollution nationwide.The approval by the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission on Thursday represents a ratification of a controversial settlement agreement between the state of Maryland and the Exelon Corp., which provides power to about 10 million customers in Maryland, Delaware, D.C., Pennsylvania, New Jersey and Illinois.The 90-year-old Conowingo Dam is located about 10 miles from where the mouth of the Susquehanna River opens to the Chesapeake Bay.The Susquehanna funnels pollution that originates on farms, in urban areas, in mines and at wastewater treatment plants southward to the bay.Some of that pollution and sediment ends up trapped behind the Conowingo, steadily filling up the reservoir — until, when waters rise during a storm and the floodgates open, the sheer force of the fast-moving water dislodges some of the reservoir’s contents in a concentrated plume.With the reservoir now essentially full, these “burps” are more frequent, put in motion by increasingly smaller storms, even as climate change causes storms to be on average stronger and more frequent. There is also some evidence that processes are occurring inside the reservoir that put pollution into motion even outside storm events, though the matter requires more research.The settlement agreement stipulated that Exelon would pay more than $200 million toward projects that would improve the bay's water quality and habitats. However, since the settlement was announced in October 2019, activist groups have panned it for demanding what they consider to be too little investment from Exelon, a Fortune 100 energy company.
Public hearing on Kennebec River plan draws questions, comments about dam removal - A proposal to amend the state’s Kennebec River Management Plan to restore a healthy river and boost fish population drew both support and opposition Monday. Some people who attended a virtual public hearing hosted by the Maine Department of Marine Resources said removing the Lockwood Dam in Waterville and the Shawmut Dam in Fairfield would allow endangered Atlantic salmon to move upriver to spawn and pave the way for recreational opportunities on the river and boost economic development. But others claimed that removal of those or other dams owned by Brookfield Renewable Partners would negatively impact the economy and properties along the river, create job losses and cause municipal tax rates to increase. The amendment seeks to expand the fish species targeted for restoration in the river to include all of Maine’s native diadromous fish, or those whose life cycles occur in both the rivers and ocean. It also would update descriptions of the physical, biological and ecological conditions in the watershed, revise goals, objectives and actions for restoration in the river and provide reasons for decommissioning and removing dams. Hearing attendees were allowed only to ask “clarifying questions.” Later they could comment, pro or con. The hearing was not a debate platform. Winslow Town Manager Erica LaCroix said Winslow would stand to lose more than $600,000 in annual revenue if the hydro dam were removed. Property owners along the river also would be impacted, she said. “Is the state considering any type of aid to those communities?” LaCroix asked. “Because we don’t have a downtown to turn into a riverfront.” Sean Ledwin, director of Sea-Run Fisheries and Habitat division of the Maine Department of Marine Resources, which researches, monitors and works to restore fish species, said the proposed river plan change is just a document and it is unclear what actually will happen at any particular point, including whether dams would be removed. He said, however, that his department would advocate for ways to offset any such impacts.
Intense sandstorm sweeps over Saudi Arabia (videos) An intense sandstorm swept over many parts of Saudi Arabia over the past couple of days, downing streetlights and electricity poles, severely limiting visibility, and forcing authorities to urge people to stay home, especially those with respiratory problems. The Saudi Civil Defence urged residents to take precautions -- warned drivers to be extra cautious and people to stay at home, especially those with respiratory problems.
341 people missing afters heavy dust storm hits Mongolia - A heavy dust storm hit the southern Mongolian province of Dundgovi on Sunday, March 14, 2021, leaving at least 341 people missing, according to the Dundgovi emergency management department.The department said most of the missing people are nomadic herders, adding that search and rescue operations are in progress.Mongolian National Agency for Meteorology and Environmental Monitoring said heavy dust and snowstorms have been affecting large parts of Mongolia since Friday night, March 12.In central and southern provinces, weather stations registered wind speeds up to 120 km/h (75 mph), the agency said.Featured image: Satellite image of Mongolia at 09:30 UTC on March 14, 2021.
Massive sandstorm forms over Mongolia, hits China's capital Beijing as the worst in a decade --A massive sandstorm formed over Mongolia on Sunday, March 14, 2021, and moved into northern China, sweeping over capital Beijing on Monday as the city's worst sandstorm in a decade. The China Meteorological Administration issued a Yellow alert on Monday morning as a massive sandstorm spread from Inner Mongolia into northern China's provinces of Gasu, Shanxi, and Hebei.The storm severely affected traffic across the wide swath of the country's north and canceled hundreds of flights. Beijing authorities said the sandstorm that swept over the city on Monday is the worst in at least a decade.The storm combined with already high air pollution and sent air quality index (AQI) to a hazardous 999 rating. Some residents shared images of AQI beyond index -- or more than 9 000.PM2.5 levels over 600 micrograms were reported in many parts of the city.The sandstorms are expected to shift south towards the Yangtze River delta today and should clear by Wednesday or Thursday. The storm formed over Mongolia on Sunday, March 14, 2021, where it left at least 341 people missing, mostly nomadic herders.
China Experiences Worst Sandstorm in a Decade - 
Beijing skies turned yellow Monday as air pollution reached hazardous levels after the worst sandstorm in a decade coincided with an industrial boom following last year's COVID lockdown.The sandstorm clouded northern China from Xinjiang in the far west to the Bohai Sea in the east, canceling flights and closing some schools, The New York Times reported. In Beijing, the Air Quality Index (AQI) reached a hazardous 999 at one point, according to The Guardian."Beijing is what an ecological crisis looks like," Li Shuo of Greenpeace Asia wrote on Twitter. "After two weeks of smog and static air, strong wind carries a sand storm in, sending AQI off the chart. It's hard to claim we are moving forward when you can't see what's in front." Beijing's air quality had already been poor due to a resurgence of industrial activity as China emerges from the coronavirus pandemic. Li told The New York Times that industrial pollutants around the Chinese capital had surpassed the average for the last four years. Authorities in Tangshan, a steel-making city often responsible for pollution in Beijing and Hebei, said Saturday that they would punish companies for not carrying out anti-pollution measures, The Guardian reported. Then came the sandstorm. It began as a snow storm in Mongolia over the weekend, where it cut power and led to at least nine deaths, according to The New York Times. At least 341 people in Mongolia were also reported missing, The Guardian reported. The storm then sent the dust south, according to CNN. The concentration of larger PM 10 particles in Beijing passed 8,100 micrograms per cubic meter. The especially dangerous PM2.5 air pollutants, small particles that can infiltrate the lungs and enter the bloodstream and other organs, reached a high of 655 micrograms per cubic meter Monday. The World Health Organization has set the safe level at 25. "In some places, there are strong sandstorms with visibility of less than 500 meters (1,640 feet)," the China Meteorological Administration said in a statement reported by CNN. "This is also the strongest dust and sand weather affecting China in almost 10 years." This combination of smog and sandstorm returned Beijing to the type of "airpocalypse" common a few years ago, before the government stepped up anti-pollution efforts, The New York Times reported.
Global Sand Mining Is Destroying the Planet and Costing Lives - It makes up the concrete of our houses, the tarmac of our roads, the glass in our windows and the silicon chips in our phones.But sand, a building block of modern life that sits at the heart of a destructive and sometimes illegal industry, is in increasingly short supply — and nobody knows how soon it will run out.Sand is the most used material on the planet but also one of the least well monitored. Unlike most other commodities, policymakers only have rough estimates of how much of it is used each year. A landmark report from the UN Environment Program (UNEP) in 2019 had to rely on data for cement — which sand and gravel are mixed with to make concrete — to land on a ballpark figure of 50 billion tons.Researchers say that's more sand than can be responsibly used each year, even though more sand can be made by crushing rocks. In some regions, the shortages have already fueled targeted killings and the destruction of habitats."The nature of the crisis is we don't understand this material well enough," said Louise Gallagher from the Global Sand Observatory in Geneva, who co-authored the report. "We don't understand the impacts enough of where we're taking it from. Sometimes we don't even know where it's coming from, how much is coming out of rivers. We don't know. We just don't know." What experts do know, though, is that extracting sand in unparalleled quantities comes at a growing cost to people and the planet. Sand mining destroys habitats, dirties rivers and erodes beaches, many of which are already losing ground to rising sea levels. When miners dig out layers of sand, riverbanks become less stable. The pollution and acidity can kill fish and leave less water for people and crops. The problem is made worse when dams upstream prevent sediments from replenishing the river. "It has so many other impacts that are not taken into consideration," said Kiran Pereira, an independent researcher who has written a book on solutions to the sand crisis. "It's definitely not reflected in the cost of sand." Worse, much of the impact may not be immediately visible, which makes it hard to know exactly how bad it is, said Stephen Edwards, who leads research on extractive industries at the International Union for the Conservation of Nature (IUCN). "It certainly is something that is rising to a level that we really need to be paying closer attention to." One reason the damage from mining has been ignored is that although sand is in objects all around us, it's "hidden in plain sight," said Chris Hackney, a geographer at the University of Newcastle in the UK, who studies the issue and co-authored the Nature article. "Ask people to name the most important commodity on the planet and sand is probably not the one that gets mentioned."
King Fire scorches 5 800 ha (14 300 acres) of land in Brooks County, Texas -A wildfire that started on the King Ranch in Brooks County, Texas, has burned around 5 800 ha (14 300 acres) of land as of Thursday, March 18, 2021, before being contained, according to the Texas Forest Service. The fire -- named King Fire -- began at the King Ranch, east of Encino, about 113 km (70 miles) southwest of Corpus Christi. One structure has been affected, while others were threatened. Two other smaller fires occurred in the area, including the Butterfly 2 Fire which has scorched about 121 ha (300 acres).The forest service said burn bans were issued for Duval, Jim Hogg, Jim Wells, Kleberg, Live Oak, Refugio, and Nueces County.As of Friday, March 19, the King Fire and Butterfly 2 Fire have been 100 percent contained. People were encouraged to avoid outdoor burning of debris or trash, dragging trailer chains on the roadway, driving through dry grass, and throwing lit cigarettes into vegetation, which can cause a spark.
13th eruptive paroxysmal episode at Etna in 30 days, Italy -- Etna's 13th eruptive paroxysmal episode since February 16 started late on March 14, 2021. The Aviation Color Code was raised to Red at 22:36 UTC and lowered back to Orange at 07:09 UTC, March 15.Strombolian activity increased at 20:10 UTC on March 14 and further intensified at around 00:00 UTC on March 15, with lava flows toward Valle del Bove and lava fountains several hundred meters high.The episode peaked at around 02:00 UTC and then decreased abruptly from around 02:40. The ash cloud moved to the East but its height was not estimable.
14th paroxysmal eruptive episode at Etna since February 16, Italy - Strombolian activity at Etna volcano, Italy intensified again at 00:55 UTC on March 17, 2021, and evolved over the next couple of hours into the 14th paroxysmal eruptive episode since February 16. The Aviation Color Code was raised to Red at 02:26 UTC and lowered back to Orange at 09:29. Strong strombolian activity transformed into lava fountaining at 02:17 UTC, however, due to cloud cover it was not possible to continuously observe the ongoing activity. Ash cloud moved to the SE but its height was not estimable, Etna Volcano Observatory said. Surveillance cameras at 02:25 UTC showed lava overflow from the Southeast Crater toward Valle del Bove. The eruption was accompanied by a loud rumble through the night, which generated a lot of fear among the local population. According to the INGV report issued at 06:17 UTC, lava fountaining has come to an end, with only moderate strombolian activity persisting.
15th paroxysmal eruptive episode at Etna volcano, Italy - The morning of March 19, 2021, brought another paroxysmal eruptive episode at Etna volcano, Italy -- the 15th since February 16. The Aviation Color Code was raised to red at 08:16 UTC.The tremor started increasing at around 06:30 UTC and soon reached a high-level threshold.Signal sources were located under the Southeast crater at a depth of 2 500 m (8 200 feet) above sea level. The infrasonic activity also increased at the time, with 1 - 2 events per minute.Strombolian activity at the Southeast Crater transformed into lava fountaining, with eruptive ash cloud scattering toward ENE, INGV-OE reported at 08:32 UTC.Mount Etna, towering above Catania, Sicily's second-largest city, has one of the world's longest documented records of historical volcanism, dating back to 1500 BCEHistorical lava flows of basaltic composition cover much of the surface of this massive volcano, whose edifice is the highest and most voluminous in Italy. Two styles of eruptive activity typically occur at Etna. Persistent explosive eruptions, sometimes with minor lava emissions, take place from one or more of the three prominent summit craters, the Central Crater, NE Crater, and SE Crater (the latter formed in 1978).
242 earthquakes in 24 hours, high-temperature volcanic gases at Taal volcano, Philippines -In 24 hours to 00:00 UTC on March 15, the Taal Volcano Network recorded 252 volcanic earthquakes, including 17 episodes of volcanic tremor with durations of 1 to 4 minutes and 5 hybrid events, PHIVOLCS reports.During the same period, activity at the Main Crater consisted of moderate emission of steam-laden plumes from fumarolic vents that rose 10 m (33 feet) high. An upwelling of high-temperature volcanic gases at the lake's surface was observed last night from 18:30 to 20:45 LT.Sulfur dioxide (SO2) emission that averaged 518 tonnes/day was measured yesterday, March 14.Temperature highs of 71.8 °C (161 °F) and pH of 1.59 were last measured from the Main Crater Lake on March 4 and February 12, 2021, respectively.Ground deformation parameters from electronic tilt, continuous GPS, and InSAR data analysis indicated very slow and steady inflation and expansion of the Taal region since after the January 2020 eruption. These parameters may indicate increased magmatic activity at shallow depths beneath the edifice.The Alert Level remains at 2 (Increased Unrest) since March 9, and PHIVOLCS reminds the public that sudden steam-driven or phreatic explosions, volcanic earthquakes, minor ashfall, and lethal accumulations or expulsions of volcanic gas can occur and threaten areas within the Taal Volcano Island (TVI).
Increased eruptive activity continues at Pacaya volcano, dense ash columns reported, Guatemala --Increased eruptive activity continues at Guatemala's Pacaya volcano with dense, dark ash columns, indicating that magma is pushing its way toward the surface. The volcano has been erupting since early February, posing risk to the surrounding communities.In a bulletin posted by INSIVUMEH on Monday, March 15, the institute reported that ash columns reached up to 2 000 m (6 600 miles), and drifted W and NW. However, atmospheric conditions did not allow for direct observations of the crater.The effusive activity continues to feed the lava flow on the southern flank, which was about 1 500 m (4 900 feet) long on Monday and up to 1 800 m (5 900 feet) on Tuesday. The dark ash columns are indicators that magma is rising towards the surface.Weak ashfall was reported early Tuesday morning (LT) in the village of El Patrocinio. At the time, it was still not possible to directly observe the volcano due to clouds.INSIVUMEH seismic stations constantly register tremors associated with the rise of magma, as well as the continuous degassing at the crater."It is not ruled out that more lava flows are generated in other flanks or the generation of degassing columns with abundant ash," the agency wrote.Eruptive activity has been ongoing at Pacaya since early February, making nearby residents uneasy in fears of tremors and volcanic eruptions.
Earthquake swarm under Mauna Loa volcano, Aviation Color Code remains at Yellow, Hawaii --A small swarm of shallow seismicity, that began at 11:00 UTC on March 18, 2021, is occurring beneath the upper Ka‘ōiki seismic zone, under Mauna Loa’s southeast flank and northwest of Kīlauea's summit, Hawaii. Mauna Loa Volcano is not erupting; other monitoring data streams remain stable and show no signs of increased activity.The USGS Hawaiian Volcano Observatory (HVO) has recorded over 40 earthquakes beneath the upper Ka‘ōiki seismic zone, about 21 km (13 miles) WNW of Volcano. The earthquakes are occurring in a cluster about 2 km (1.2 miles) wide and 0.5 - 6 km (0.5 - 4 miles) below the surface.The largest event in the sequence, so far, was M3.5 earthquake, with the bulk of the events being less than M2 and not widely reported by residents. Reported felt events were described as weak shaking, with a maximum Intensity of II on the Modified Mercalli Intensity Scale.Clustering of shallow earthquakes in this region does not mean an eruption is imminent, HVO said.The observatory has recorded shallow earthquakes in this area for many decades across several eruptive cycles at both Kīlauea and Mauna Loa."These earthquakes do not show any signs of magmatic involvement and are part of normal re-adjustments of the volcano due to changing stresses within it. Other monitoring data streams for Kīlauea and Mauna Loa, including ground deformation, gas, and imagery, show no signs of increased activity."HVO continues to closely monitor geologic changes, seismicity, deformation, and gas emissions at Kīlauea and Mauna Loa volcanoes.
Eruption starts near Fagradalsfjall on Iceland's Reykjanes Peninsula -- A volcanic eruption started near Fagradalsfjall in Geldingadalur, Krýsuvík-Trölladyngja volcanic system, Iceland's Reykjanes Peninsula at 20:45 UTC on March 19, 2021, after more than 50 000 earthquakes registered since February 24. The last eruption in this area took place in 1340 (VEI 1) - 681 years ago.
- The Aviation Color Code for the Reykjanes Peninsula has been elevated to Red, signifying an eruption in progress.
- Additional domestic restrictions have been put in place, including the closure of Reykjanesbraut – the main road from the capital region to Reykjanesbær and the international airport at Keflavík.
- The public is advised to stay away from the area.
The eruption is considered small at this stage and the eruptive fissure is approximately 500 - 1000 m (1 640 - 3 280 feet) long, the Icelandic Met Office (IMO) reports. The magma area is approximately 1 km2 (0.38 mi2) and lava fountains are still small at this stage. The eruption was first seen on a web camera positioned close the mountain. It was also confirmed on thermal satellite imagery. The eruption site is in a valley, about 4.7 km (2.9 miles) inland from the southern coast of the Reykjanes Peninsula. The coastal town of Grindavík is the closest populated region to the eruption site, located approximately 10 km (6.2 miles) to the southwest. After more than 50 000 earthquakes detected since February 24, 2021, earthquake activity in the region of the magma intrusion has been lower in recent days, and there is presently no intense seismicity occurring in the region. Earlier in the day, several low-frequency earthquakes were recorded below Fagradalsfjall. There are presently no reports of ash fall, although tephra and gas emissions are to be expected. In line with well-rehearsed contingency plans, the Aviation Color Code for the Reykjanes Peninsula has been elevated to Red, signifying an eruption in progress. Additional domestic restrictions have been put in place, including the closure of Reykjanesbraut – the main road from the capital region to Reykjanesbær and the international airport at Keflavík. "Given the extent of the eruption as it is now, it doesn't seem to threaten a building or structures," IMO said. "However, there is a possibility that gas pollution can cause discomfort to people. Forecasts of gas distribution from the volcanic eruption will be released in the near future. The weather forecast predicts some strong winds and rainfall that will reduce the impact of possible pollutants from the volcanoes."
Powerful M7.2 earthquake hits near the east coast of Honshu, Japan - Tsunami warnings issued - A powerful earthquake registered by the JMA as M7.2 hit near the east coast of Honshu, Japan at 09:09 UTC (18:09 JST) on March 20, 2021. The agency is reporting a depth of 60 km (37 miles).USGS is reporting M7.0 at a depth of 54 km (33 miles). JMA has issued tsunami advisories and forecasts for the nearby coast.The epicenter was located 27.5 km (17.1 miles) WNW of Ishinomaki (population 117 233) and 34 km (21 miles) E of Yamoto (population 32 028), Japan.There are about 2 630 000 people living within 100 km (62 miles) of the epicenter. 1 029 000 people are estimated to have felt strong shaking and 2 340 000 moderate. JMA has issued a Tsunami Advisory and Forecast for the nearby coasts. Waves up to 1 m (3.3 feet) high are expected.
California's rainy season starting nearly a month later than it did 60 years ago --The start of California's annual rainy season has been pushed back from November to December, prolonging the state's increasingly destructive wildfire season by nearly a month, according to new research. The study cannot confirm the shift is connected to climate change, but the results are consistent with climate models that predict drier autumns for California in a warming climate, according to the authors. Wildfires can occur at any time in California, but fires typically burn from May through October, when the state is in its dry season. The start of the rainy season, historically in November, ends wildfire season as plants become too moist to burn. California's rainy season has been starting progressively later in recent decades and climate scientists have projected it will get shorter as the climate warms. In the new study, researchers analyzed rainfall and weather data in California over the past six decades. The results show the official onset of California's rainy season is 27 days later than it was in the 1960s and the rain that does fall is being concentrated during the months of January and February. "What we've shown is that it will not happen in the future, it's happening already," said Jelena Lukovi?, a climate scientist at the University of Belgrade in Serbia and lead author of the new study. "The onset of the rainy season has been progressively delayed since the 1960s, and as a result the precipitation season has become shorter and sharper in California." The new study in AGU's journal Geophysical Research Letters, which publishes high-impact, short-format reports with immediate implications spanning all Earth and space sciences, is the first to quantify just how much later the rainy season now begins. The results suggest California's wildfire season, which has been getting progressively worse due to human-caused climate change, will last even longer in the years to come and Californians can expect to see more fires flaring up in the month of November. 2020 was California's worst wildfire season on record, with nearly 10,000 fires burning more than 4.2 million acres of land. An extended dry season means there is more overlap between wildfire season and the influx of Santa Ana winds that bring hot, dry weather to California in the fall. These winds can fan the flames of wildfires and increase the risk of late-season fires getting out of hand. "It's not just a matter of making the vegetation drier and keeping all else equal," "You're also increasing the number of opportunities for extremely dry vegetation and extremely strong offshore winds to coincide."
Europe's Recent Droughts 'Unprecedented' in Millennia, Study Finds - A recent series of summer droughts in Europe, which brought devastating ecological, agricultural, and economic impacts, were more severe than any over the past 2,100 years, new research out Monday finds."Our results show that what we have experienced over the past five summers is extraordinary for central Europe, in terms of how dry it has been consecutively," dendrochronology specialist and lead author Professor Ulf Büntgen of Cambridge's Department of Geography said in a statement.Büntgen and the team of international researchers linked the recent droughts to the climate crisis, including its impacts on the jet stream.The findings were published Monday in the journal Nature Geoscience.Analyzing more than 27,000 measurements of carbon and oxygen isotopic ratios from European oak trees — 21 living and 126 dead — the scientists got a picture of past climates, including summer droughts, spanning the years 75 BC to 2018.Co-author Paolo Cherubini of the Federal Research Institute WSL in Birmensdorf, Switzerland, explained that "carbon values depend on the photosynthetic activity" and "oxygen values are affected by the source water."And the "insights before medieval times," said Büntgen, "are particularly vital, because they enable us to get a more complete picture of past drought variations, which were essential for the functioning and productivity of ecosystems and societies."The reconstruction showed an overall drying trend. But the samples showed that the droughts from 2015-2018 were "unprecedented" over the massive time span.But the runaway climate crisis portends more worrisome parched periods to come. "Climate change does not mean that it will get drier everywhere: some places may get wetter or colder, but extreme conditions will become more frequent, which could be devastating for agriculture, ecosystems, and societies as a whole," said Büntgen.
Ozone-Depleting CFC Chemicals Will Reemerge From Ocean by 2075, Study Finds -- The Montreal Protocol banning ozone-depleting chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) in 1987 has been hailed as an example of successful international collaboration to stop an environmental threat. But, like a creature from a horror movie, those banned chemicals could rise from the depths to stalk our atmosphere once again. That's the finding of a new study, which concluded that the ocean would shift from absorbing to releasing at least one type of CFC, known as CFC-11, by the end of this century. By the mid-2100s, the ocean could emit enough to be detectable. "By the time you get to the first half of the 22nd century, you'll have enough of a flux coming out of the ocean that it might look like someone is cheating on the Montreal Protocol, but instead, it could just be what's coming out of the ocean," Susan Solomon, study co-author and Lee and Geraldine Martin Professor of Environmental Studies in MIT's Department of Earth, Atmospheric and Planetary Sciences, said in an MIT press release. "It's an interesting prediction and hopefully will help future researchers avoid getting confused about what's going on." The research, led by MIT, is newly published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. To draw their conclusions, researchers used models to simulate the ocean's current and future uptake and release of CFC-11. They found that by 2075, the ocean would emit more of the chemical than it absorbed. By 2145, it would release enough to be detectable by existing technologies. The models found that this process could be sped up by the climate crisis. If the planet warms by five degrees Celsius by 2100, the ocean will become a net emitter of CFC-11 by 2065 and release detectable levels by 2140. However, the ocean's eventual release of CFC-11 is not dependent on the climate crisis. Instead, it is based on another mechanism, as LiveScience explained: [T]he ocean and atmosphere tend to stay in balance. When the atmosphere has a lot of a water-soluble molecule, like a CFC, the oceans suck some of it up. And when the oceans have a lot of that same molecule but the atmosphere doesn't, they tend to release it back into the air. As the world has stopped producing CFCs, atmospheric CFC levels have dropped, and the oceans are absorbing less and less from the air. Eventually, the balance will tip, and the oceans will become net-emitters of CFCs.
10 Million Climate Refugees in Past Six Months: Red Cross Calls for Urgent International Help - The world's largest humanitarian network warned Wednesday that urgent international action is needed to address the rising risk of climate-related displacement, highlighting data that shows disasters such as storms, droughts, fires, and floods internally displaced more than 10 million people from September to February."In just the last six months, there have been 12.6 million people internally displaced around the world and over 80% of these forced displacements have been caused by disasters, most of which are triggered by climate and weather extremes," said Helen Brunt of the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies (IFRC)."Asia suffers much more than any other region from climate disaster-related displacements," noted Brunt, IFRC's Asia Pacific Migration and Displacement coordinator. "These upheavals are taking a terrible toll on some of the poorest communities already reeling from the economic and social impacts of the Covid-19 pandemic."The new report, Responding to Disasters and Displacement in a Changing Climate, draws data from theInternal Displacement Monitoring Center. According to the IDMC, about 2.3 million displacements over the past six months are related to conflict compared with 10.3 million due to disasters. The report details how the IFRC has responded to various humanitarian needs across Asia, with case studies about assisting communities affected by drought in Afghanistan; seasonal cyclones and monsoon rains, which lead to flooding and landslides, in Bangladesh; and a dzud, a term for extreme winter conditions that cause mass livestock loss, in Mongolia.The network also dedicates a section to the Philippine Red Cross's efforts to adopt a strategic approach to housing, land, and property rights for displaced communities. "We are seeing an alarming trend of people displaced by more extreme weather events such as Typhoon Goni, the world's most ferocious storm last year, that smashed into the Philippines," said Brunt. "Three storms hit the Philippines in as many weeks, leaving over three million people destitute."
How Has COVID Changed Fridays for Future? --When Fridays for Future (FFF) takes to the streets on March 19, activists around the world are going to be doing everything they can to make sure the climate crisis stays in the news.In the Netherlands, 16-year-old Erik Christiansson will join a small physically distanced protest in The Hague with other Dutch FFF members.Meanwhile, some 12,000 kilometers to the south in Zambia, a 26-year-old man named Chilekwa Kangwa will give a radio interview highlighting the importance of education and sustainable agriculture.Across the Atlantic and eight time zones away, Adriana Calderon, an 18-year-old Mexican, will be deploying a sticker campaign in support of renewable energy and targeting the massive global K-pop fan base on social media, in the hope that the FFF message goes viral."The big marches with tens of thousands of people which we had in 2019 are just not possible anymore," said Christiansson, 16, speaking with DW from his home near Utrecht.Over the past year, he and other young activists around the globe have tried to adapt and come up with new virtual approaches to get the message out — a #DigitalStrike from online class, for example, or social media posts with eye-catching slogans. Overall, though, it's been a struggle. "We noticed that it's been a lot less effective," said Christiansson, who has been involved with climate advocacy for about two years. "On social media, often your posts get seen by other people who already agree with you and you don't really get that much attention from outside."Calderon has also found it difficult to share her climate concerns under Mexico's emergency coronavirus measures. Speaking with passersby at an in-person march, she said, you may have several minutes to get your message across. Online, that attention span shrinks to just seconds. "With social media, it's very hard — you have to be really precise in your words," she said. Her local FFF group, based in Cuernavaca, Morelos, found it too difficult to carry on under the quarantine measures and shut down its social media presence in November.
The Words 'Climate' and 'Science' Are Back on EPA Website After Four Dark Years Under Trump --The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) on Thursday brought back its climate change website — a resource the former Trump administration had yanked."Climate facts are back on EPA's website where they should be," newly confirmed EPA Administrator Michael Regan said in a statement Thursday."Considering the urgency of this crisis, it's critical that Americans have access to information and resources so that we can all play a role in protecting our environment, our health, and vulnerable communities," Regan continued. "Trustworthy, science-based information is at the foundation of strong, achievable solutions."New information on climate science and the crisis' impacts will soon be added to the website, the statement added.In April of 2017 the Trump administration, with Scott Pruitt then at the helm of the EPA, rendered the agency's climate change site basically useless, with readers being redirected to a page that said, "This page is being updated." Any pretense of ongoing or pending updates, however, was dropped in 2018. The moves were seen as on-brand for an administration carrying out a war on science and pushing forth pro-fossil fuel policies.The relaunching of the site was welcomed by the Union of Concerned Scientists, who said it was "back and better than ever!""The EPA is restoring science and reinstating its climate website, making it a priority as @EPAMichaelRegan leads the way in transitioning our nation to a clean energy economy," the group tweeted.Progressive advocacy group Environment America said the "relaunch is a strong signal that the Biden administration will restore the role of science in protecting our communities and public health." The move was also welcomed by climate action advocate and Washington Gov. Jay Inslee. "For the first time in 4 years, the @EPA is providing information on climate change through its website. The public now has access to data and science about this existential threat. I am glad to see the federal government back in the fight for our future," Inslee tweeted. A similar message was fired off by Regan, who tweeted: "Climate change impacts all of us. You deserve access to science and data so we can find solutions together."
Former BlackRock ESG Chief: American Public Is Being Duped By "Greenwashing"-Wall-Streeters -- Over a month ago we first exposed the "Green Scam". ESG, or Environmental, Social, and Governance, has become the virtue-signaling tour de force for asset mangers to skim even greater margins off retail dupes under pressure from their liberal peers. And since the green movement was here to stay, so was the wave of pro-ESG investing which every single bank has been pitching to its clients because, well you know, it's the socially, environmentally and financially responsible thing.There is just one problem. Instead of finding companies that, well, care for the environment, for society or are for a progressive governance movement, it turns out that the most popular holdings of all those virtue signaling ESG funds are companies such as.... Microsoft, Alphabet, Apple and Amazon, which one would be hard pressed to explain how their actions do anything that is of benefit for the environment, or whatever the S and G stand for. It gets better: among the other most popular ESG companies are consulting company Accenture (?), Procter & Gamble (??), and... drumroll, JPMorgan (!!?!!!?!).Yes, for all those who are speechless by the fact that the latest virtue-signaling investing farce is nothing more than the pure cristalized hypocrisy of Wall Street and America's most valuable corporations, who have all risen above the $1 trillion market cap bogey because they found a brilliant hook with which to attract the world's most gullible, bleeding-heart liberals and frankly everybody else into believing they are fixing the world by investing in "ESG" when instead they are just making Jeff Bezos and Jamie Dimon richer beyond their wildest dreams, here is Credit Suisse's summary of the 108 most popular ESG funds. Please try hard not to laugh when reading what "socially responsible, environmentally safe, aggressively progressive" companies that one buys when one investing into the "Green", aka ESG scam. (video interview, transcript)
Meet the “New Koch Brothers” – the Hedge Fund Activists Wrecking America’s Green New Deal By Lynn Parramore, Institute for New Economic Thinking - With Biden in the White House and Democrats controlling Congress, plans to get moving on some form of a Green New Deal could finally emerge. The Texas blackout heightened the sense of urgency, and everybody’s talking about upgrading the power grid, renewable energy, and what it will take to have a greener, cleaner future. Meanwhile, the climate change-denying political right is determined to crush any proposals before they have a chance. Players on Wall Street have been torpedoing our chances of averting environmental catastrophe for years. A group of billionaire financiers has made sure the companies the government must partner with to fight climate change are focused on one thing only – making these men (they all seem to be men) even richer. Instead of leading the world in climate change technology, firms like Apple, GE, and Intel have been pressured to become the personal piggy banks of powerful moneymen—known as hedge fund activists—who can’t see beyond the next quarterly report. You may have heard the term “activist shareholders.” These are people, usually hedge fund managers, who buy shares of a public company’s stock and then demand that the company do whatever it takes to jack up their stock price. The hedge fund then quickly sells out—a move called “pump and dump.”People who did this used to be called “corporate raiders.” They took over companies, fired people, played stock market games to swell the stock price, made a quick buck, and then split. Remember Gordon Gekko from Oliver Stone’s movie, “Wall Street”? The main difference between the Lizard of Wall Street and today’s hedge fund activist is that Gekko wasn’t shy about his motives: “Greed is good.” What has changed is that today’s raiders don’t typically gain control over target companies before they put the squeeze on. Instead, they make company execs do the squeezing or, when that doesn’t work, fire them and replace them with ones that will.What does this have to do with fighting climate change? A lot, it turns out. The government can’t just snap its fingers and make batteries for electric cars, renewable energy storage, and advanced computer chips (needed for everything). It has to partner with companies that have the deep know-how and the substantial resources to develop these complicated and cutting-edge technologies. The problem is, activists usually aren’t interested in companies being the best at what they do, or doing anything, really, except handing over money to shareholders. A favorite tactic is to force companies to use their cash, or even borrow it, to buy back outstanding shares of their own stock. This neat Wall Street trick reduces the total number of shares available, so it boosts the value of the shares that remain. Presto! The hedgies holding the shares have just made easy money because their shares are now worth more and can be sold at a hefty gain.
Capitol mob may have trashed 3 Trump pollution rules -- Tuesday, March 16, 2021 -- Rioters who charged the Capitol on Jan. 6 hoping to preserve Donald Trump's power may have actually hurt the former president's environmental legacy. It comes down to a technical provision in the Congressional Review Act that requires hard copies of regulations be sent from the Senate parliamentarian's office to committees before they are formally "received by the Congress." To finalize a rule, agencies must send the regulation to both the Office of the Federal Register and to Congress. Whichever happens later prompts the rule to be deemed "received." On Jan. 6, EPA sent three regulations to the Senate parliamentarian. One was the first-ever greenhouse gas emissions rule for airplanes, which environmentalists dismissed as useless. Another included unchanged National Ambient Air Quality Standards for ozone, an air pollutant experts say is among the most dangerous in the United States today. EPA also sent an action affecting the Denver area. After receiving the rules, the parliamentarian had to route them to send them to the Senate Environment and Public Works Committee — a process that can take several days. But on Jan. 6, the mob ransacked the office. File cabinets were toppled over, and documents were strewn across the floor. And as a result, sources in and outside Capitol Hill say, the rules may have taken longer to make it to committee. Records show that the EPA rules finally made it to EPW on Jan. 22. That's after President Biden took office. The White House's new chief of staff, Ron Klain, had by then issued a memo to freeze all Trump rules that had not gone into effect. Former President Trump's team had drafted the rules to go into effect immediately to make them less vulnerable to the incoming Democrats. "The rioters to some extent worked against their savior Donald Trump," as one advocacy source put it.
From Carbon To Metals: the Renewable Energy Transition - The world is transitioning from a carbon-intensive to a metals-intensive economy. Low-carbon technologies use much larger amounts of metal than traditional fossil fuel-based systems. Demand for metals is thus rising exponentially, fuelling a boom in mining and production.But this creates an environmental challenge. Metals extraction and processing is a significant contributor to global warming and a major pollutant. Unless more environmentally-friendly ways of generating energy from renewable sources can be found, saving the planet from carbon emissions may prove extremely costly for our fellow creatures and even for ourselves. The Paris Climate Agreement, which was ratified by 174 countries and the European Union in 2016, aims to keep global warming “well below” 2 degrees Celsius this century and ideally not more than 1.5 degrees Celsius. Achieving this challenging target is dependent to an unknown degree on factors outside government control. However, the countries that have ratified the agreement agree that reducing the emissions to the levels agreed in the Paris Agreement will mean largely abandoning fossil fuels as energy sources, replacing them with lower-carbon alternative energy sources such as wind, solar, hydroelectric and nuclear power. In practical terms, this means pivoting away from petroleum products and natural gas towards electricity. Replacing the internal combustion engine with electric propulsion will be key to achieving the emissions targets in the Paris Agreement. Improving fuel efficiency of vehicles, appliances and business equipment is also crucial, since reducing the world’s demand for energy is as important as decarbonising energy sources. Low-carbon technologies are considerably more metal-intensive than fossil fuel-based technologies. For example, an electric car typically contains 80kg of copper, four times as much as a petroleum-fuelled car. Both wind and solar power plants contain more copper than fossil fuel ones: a typical solar plant contains about 5kg of copper per kilowatt, as against 2kg per kilowatt for a coal-fired power station. This is driving a new boom in metals extraction and processing.
Study: Carbon tax more efficient to cut emissions A carbon tax would be more economically efficient for curbing greenhouse gas emissions from electricity by 2040 than renewable portfolio standards or production tax credits, according to a recent report. The analysis published last month by Ohio State University researchers highlights the contrast between what would be least costly from an economic standpoint and how politicians have favored piecemeal steps to address climate change.So far, the United States has shied away from a carbon tax. Under a tax, the market price of fossil fuel generation would increase to reflect the health, climate and other social impacts that polluters currently shift to the public. Instead, the federal government has used production tax credits. And various states have renewable portfolio standards. Ohio was among those states, but its clean energy standards were gutted by House Bill 6, the passage of which is now the focus of a federal corruption case.The researchers compared the costs of those three potential policy solutions for cutting greenhouse gas emissions from electricity generation by 80% by 2040. Getting to an energy mix that would provide that result would cost less with a carbon tax than either renewable portfolio standards or production tax credits, the team reported in the journal Energy Markets. “Unsurprisingly, we found that the policy mechanisms that we are willing to use are relatively expensive,” compared to the carbon tax that politicians have so far been unwilling to impose
Report: 'Systemic failure' in EPA wood stove tests -Even as the federal government and states dangle tax breaks to encourage sales, buyers of new wood stoves can’t be sure that their purchases aren’t spewing dangerous levels of pollutants, according to a biting new report that calls for an investigation by either Congress or the agency’s inspector general.Stoves and other appliances — which the report says are used in millions of homes as an energy source — are a top source of fine particulates, commonly dubbed soot, linked to a variety of cardiovascular and respiratory problems, including higher odds of premature death in some circumstances.Yet EPA’s current system “provides no confidence” that stoves and other wood-fired heating appliances perform at the level required by federal standards, Northeast States for Coordinated Air Use Management (NESCAUM), a group of state air quality regulators, said in the report, released Monday.Among the specific concerns raised by the Boston-based group: testing that may give an artificially low reading of the amount of pollution that stoves and other wood-fired hearing appliances spew in real-world conditions, slipshod test certification procedures, and lax EPA oversight.“You can’t assume because it’s EPA-certified that it was tested according to the requirements,” Lisa Rector, a program and policy director for NESCAUM and the report’s lead author, said in an interview.At stake is whether stricter Obama-era emissions limits that took full effect last year are in fact delivering on forecasts of less pollution.“If EPA’s program for certifying wood heaters is not assuring that new devices are in fact cleaner than the ones they are replacing, then these efforts may be providing no health benefits while wasting scarce resources,” the report says, calling the certification program a “systemic failure.”
Phasing Out Fossil Fuels Is Possible. These State-Level Plans Show How - By far the most important source of CO2 emissions entering the atmosphere is fossil fuel consumption — i.e., burning oil, coal and natural gas to produce energy. As such, the program we develop in all of the U.S. states centers on the state’s economy phasing out its entire fossil fuel industry — i.e., anything to do with producing or consuming oil, coal or natural gas — at a rate that will enable the state to hit the two IPCC emissions reduction targets: the 50 percent reduction by 2030 and zero emissions within the state by 2050. Of course, meeting these emissions reduction targets raises a massive question right away: How can you phase out fossil fuels and still enable people to heat, light and cool their homes and workplaces; for cars, buses, trains and planes to keep running; and for industrial machinery of all types to keep operating?It turns out that, in its basics, the answer is simple and achievable, in all the states we have studied (and everywhere else for that matter): to build a whole new clean energy infrastructure that will supplant the existing fossil fuel dominant infrastructure in each state. So the next major feature of our approach is to develop investment programs to dramatically raise energy efficiency standards in buildings, transportation systems and industrial equipment, and equally dramatically expand the supply of clean renewable energy sources, i.e. primarily solar and wind energy, but also geothermal, small-scale hydro, as well as low-emissions bioenergy. For all but one of the states we have studied, we estimate that the amount of clean energy investments that are needed amounts to between 1-3 percent of all state economic activity, i.e. the state’s GDP (Gross Domestic Product). That can be a lot of money — like $6.6 billion in Washington State (1.2 percent of projected average GDP between 2021-2030), $22.6 billion in Pennsylvania (2.5 percent of projected average GDP between 2021-2030) and $76 billion in California (2.1 percent of projected average GDP between 2021-2030). But still, these spending levels, amounting to 1-3 percent of GDP, do still mean that something like 97-99 percent of all the state’s economic activity can be devoted to everything else besides clean energy investments. West Virginia is the one outlier in the states we have studied so far. But even here, we estimate the investment program will need to be only somewhat higher, at 4.2 percent of the state’s projected average GDP for 2021-2030, equal to $3.6 billion per year.A critical and totally straightforward result of these state-level investment programs is that they will create an abundance of jobs — something like, for example, 40,000 in Washington State, 150,000 in Pennsylvania, and 420,000 in California. This conclusion runs completely counter to the widespread, if not prevalent, view that any kind of climate stabilization program is going to be a jobs killer. This view, feasted on by Trump and many others of his ilk, is that you can, maybe, stabilize the climate, or you can increase job opportunities, but you can’t do both. Our research shows exactly the opposite: that you can indeed do both, through the same program of building a clean energy infrastructure in each state.
WV congressional delegation supports carbon capture infrastructure legislation - A bill designed to develop carbon capture infrastructure throughout the United States has gained broad support from West Virginia’s congressional delegation. Announced Wednesday, the Storing CO2 And Lowering Emissions [SCALE] Actwould support the buildout of infrastructure to transport carbon dioxide from sites of capture to locations where it can be either used in manufacturing or sequestered safely underground. U.S. Sen. Joe Manchin, D-W.Va., chairman of the Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee, and Sen. Shelley Moore Capito, R-W.Va., top-ranking Republican on the Senate Environment and Public Works Committee, joined nine other Democratic and Republican senators to introduce the legislation.Rep. David B. McKinley, R-W.Va., top-ranking Republican on the House Subcommittee on Environment and Climate Change, joined two Democrats and a fellow Republican to introduce the SCALE Act late in the last previous congressional session in December and supports a House version of the bill.“Measures like these will push our clean energy objectives forward while supporting thousands of clean energy, infrastructure and manufacturing jobs across the country, including in traditional energy producing communities like those in West Virginia,” Manchin said in a statement.“This is a commonsense, win-win bill that will help lower carbon emissions and create jobs through the construction of pipelines,” Capito said in a statement.Rep. Alex Mooney, R-W.Va., has agreed to cosponsor the bill, saying that it would help fund the infrastructure necessary for the mass deployment of the carbon capture technology. Rep. Carol Miller, R-W.Va., has yet to sign on to support the SCALE Act. Miller said she is committed to growing West Virginia’s energy industry by investing in carbon capture and other technologies that elevate West Virginia’s energy commodities, including coal, to modernize and innovate coal mines. Capturing, removing and storing carbon is seen as critical in the struggle to slow climate change, and politicians representing constituencies like West Virginia where coal still plays a major role in the economy and electric generation have embraced developing technologies to make those processes easier as a way to keep coal in the energy mix amid the country’s shift away from coal and toward reducing emissions. Many experts have viewed carbon capture and storage as expensive and inefficient. But the number of carbon capture, use and storage projects announced since a 2018 tax credit expansion for those technologies has grown to more than 30, according to a database maintained by the Clean Air Task Force, a nonprofit that advocates for clean air measures.
CARBON CAPTURE: Oil and gas companies announce 2 large CCS projects -- Friday, March 19, 2021 -- A liquefied national gas company and an energy coalition backed by a division of BlackRock Inc. announced separate major carbon capture projects this week, advancing the oil and gas sector's interests in the technology.
Ocasio-Cortez, Warren introduce bill to put $500 billion toward electric public transit -A measure introduced by Reps. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.) and Andy Levin (D-Mich.) in the House and Sens. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) and Ed Markey (D-Mass.) in the Senate would put $500 billion toward electric public transportation infrastructure. The Better Utilizing Investments to Leverage Development and Generating Renewable Energy to Electrify the Nation’s (Build Green) Infrastructure and Jobs Act includes $500 billion in grants over the next decade to electrify public transportation, including rail systems, buses and fleet vehicles. Local governments, port authorities, states and tribes would all be eligible to apply for grant funding. Of the funds, at least $150 billion would be allocated for electric rails and vehicles and vehicle charging equipment. The Transportation Department would select recipients according to “the extent to which an eligible project contributes to climate resilience and mitigation, and reduces air pollution, air toxics, and greenhouse gas emissions” and how much energy it saves compared to other applicants. At least 40 percent of funding will prioritize front-line or vulnerable communities or those that have seen disparate effects on public health as a result of pollution, according to Levin’s office. “Electrifying our cars, buses and trains is a central pillar of the Green New Deal,” Levin said in a statement. “The answer to both the climate crisis and the crisis of wealth inequality is to empower working people with the sustainable investments necessary to rebuild the communities devastated by decades of pollution and corporate trade policy.” The bill “will make the big federal investments necessary to transform our country’s transportation system, confront the racial and economic inequality embedded in our fossil fuel economy, and achieve the ambitious targets for 100% clean energy in America,” Warren added. The measure has been endorsed by numerous progressive and environmental groups, including Sunrise Movement, the League of Conservation Voters, Sierra Club, Greenpeace and the Natural Resources Defense Council. Data for Progress, another group that has endorsed the legislation, has projected the provisions of the bill would create up to 1 million jobs and save up to $1 billion per year in reduced health care costs.
Lawsuit claims electric truck startup defrauded investors (AP) — A shareholder lawsuit was filed Thursday against an electric truck startup company claiming it has defrauded investors by making spurious claims about the number of preordered trucks and the progress it has made in starting production at a former General Motors plant in Ohio. The lawsuit filed by shareholder Chris Rico against Lordstown Motors Corp. in federal court in Youngstown seeks certification as a class-action complaint. Lordstown Motors CEO Steve Burns acknowledged that the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission is conducting an inquiry based on a lengthy and critical report issued late last week by the investment firm Hindenburg Research, which holds a short position on Lordstown Motors stock. Burns, speaking during the company’s first-ever earnings call on Wednesday, said the company’s board of directors has formed a special committee “to review matters” surrounding the SEC inquiry. A company spokesperson did not respond to an emailed request for comment about the lawsuit on Thursday. The complaint is largely based on the Hindenburg Research report that said Lordstown Motors has “no revenue and no sellable product” and has “misled investors on both its demand and production capabilities.” The report and lawsuit said that according to a former employee, estimated production is three to four years away. Burns has said production would begin this September. The company has touted that it has presold 100,000 trucks to various fleets in the U.S. But those orders, according to the lawsuit, are non-binding.
Maine Lawmakers Again Seek To Limit Foreign Influence In Anti-Power Line Referendum - Central Maine Power's controversial transmission project is again the target of another referendum that could scuttle the project, and the issue of foreign influence in the campaign has also surfaced once again. A new slate of bills in the Maine Legislature could sideline Hydro-Quebec, a major financial beneficiary of the power line that's already spent an estimated $10 million promoting its purported benefits to Maine residents. Some lawmakers say a company whose sole shareholder is the government of Quebec has no business attempting to influence the ballot initiative. But Hydro-Quebec and other project supporters say silencing the company is unfair and potentially unconstitutional. As the potential source of electricity for the transmission corridor known as the New England Clean Energy Connect, Hydro-Quebec has spared little expense touting a project that represents the largest sales contract in its history, according to one of its recent annual reports. The government-owned company stands to net more than $12 billion, and last year it spent nearly $7 million opposing a ballot initiative that was ultimately halted by Maine's law court. It's since hired Forbes Tates Partners, one of the top Washington, D.C. lobbying firms, to assist with campaign messaging to fend off another anti-corridor referendum expected to take place in November. Republican state Sen. Rick Bennett of Oxford told lawmakers during a public hearing Monday that all of this influencing activity should not be permitted by a corporation that is effectively under the control of a foreign government. "Foreign governments seeking to influence U.S. policy should not be allowed to circumvent diplomatic channels by spending money to directly influence policymakers," Bennett says. In this case, Bennett says, the policymakers are not just elected officials but also Maine voters, who are allowed under the state constitution to create laws via ballot initiative. The problem for corridor opponents is that while it's illegal under state and federal law for foreign companies or governments to spend money to influence the outcome of candidate campaigns, those same laws are largely silent on foreign spending on ballot campaigns.
U.S. solar industry predicts installations will quadruple by 2030 (Reuters) - Solar installations in the United States are expected to quadruple by 2030 thanks to the extension of a key industry subsidy late last year and booming demand for carbon-free power, an industry body said on Tuesday. The sector will install 324 gigawatt (GW) of capacity over the next decade, more than three times the nearly 100 GW installed by 2020, the U.S. Solar Energy Industries Association (SEIA) said, citing a report issued jointly with Wood Mackenzie. The 324 GW of solar energy would produce enough electricity to power about 60 million homes, or around 40% of homes in the country today. The outlook reflects both robust demand from utilities and corporations seeking to meet greenhouse gas reduction goals and declining costs for the technology that has buttressed the market for home solar installations. Just 3% of U.S. electricity is generated from the sun, but SEIA hopes that will rise to 20% over the next decade. Installations rose 43% last year to 19.2 GW, an annual record for the industry. Utility-scale projects, which account for most of the market, experienced only minor disruptions due to coronavirus pandemic-related shutdowns. Residential installations took a large hit in the second quarter due to the pandemic, but ended the year up 11% at a record 3.1 GW.
It’s time to ‘go big’ on offshore wind, boosters say --No wind turbines are producing power off the New Jersey coast, but enough potential wind capacity exists out there to meet virtually all of the state’s electrical demand, according to a new report. In fact, offshore wind has the capacity to power the country with clean energy, the report by the Environment New Jersey Research & Policy Center and Frontier Group argues. In the Atlantic region alone — stretching from Maine to Florida — there is enough wind potential to produce four times the electricity those states used in 2019, the analysis says. “This incredible resource is relatively untapped, but we have a chance to take advantage of it and build a resilient green future for New Jerseyans,’’ said Doug O’Malley, director of the Research & Policy center. “Now is the time to go big on offshore wind.’’ The Murphy administration embraces that goal, making development of offshore-wind farms along the New Jersey coast a top priority for achieving its goal of transitioning to 100% clean energy by 2050 and sharply reducing emissions of greenhouse gases. To that end, it has set a target of having 7,500 megawatts of offshore-wind capacity by 2035. Although it has not yet built any offshore-wind farms, New Jersey has the largest permitted project moving forward, the Ocean Wind 1,100-megawatt initiative about 16 miles off Atlantic City. The state expects to approve up to 2,400 megawatts of new projects sometime this June.
Texas officials say $29 million in electric bills to be forgiven -Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton (R) said Tuesday that $29 million in electric bills will be forgiven after electricity provider Griddy filed for bankruptcy Monday. “My office sued Griddy Energy, under the Texas Deceptive Trade Practices Act, to hold them accountable for their escalation of last month’s winter storm disaster by debiting enormous amounts from customer accounts as Texans struggled to survive the storm,” Paxton said in a statement. “I ensured that Griddy’s proposed bankruptcy plan takes an important step forward by offering releases to approximately 24,000 former customers who owe $29.1 million in unpaid electric bills. Griddy and my office are engaged in ongoing good faith negotiations to attempt to address additional relief for those Griddy customers who have already paid their storm-related energy bills.” Paxton specified that through its bankruptcy plan, Griddy will “release all outstanding payment obligations for those Texas consumers who were unable to pay their energy bills due to the high prices charged during the storm” and that “Texas and Griddy will work in good faith to address relief for Texans who have already paid.” Paxton had filed suit against Griddy under the Texas Deceptive Trade Practices Act after some Texans were hit with abnormally high electric bills during last month’s severe winter weather even as power was knocked out in broad swaths of the state. Dozens of people in Texas and surrounding states died during the freezing conditions last month, and millions were left without power for days. Officials have said frozen machinery at natural gas plants fueled the outages.
Texas energy provider Griddy files for bankruptcy after sending massive bills to customers Texas energy provider Griddy filed for bankruptcy on Monday and blamed the state's power grid management for destroying its business. In a statement on its website, the company argued that actions taken by the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) to price energy at extremely high levels during a massive winter storm last month harmed both its customers and the business itself. "Our bankruptcy plan, if confirmed, provides relief for our former customers who were unable to pay their electricity bills resulting from the unprecedented prices. ERCOT made a bad situation worse for our customers by continuing to set prices at $9,000 per megawatt hour long after firm load shed instructions had stopped. Our customers paid 300 times more than the normal price for electricity during this period," said CEO Michael Fallquist.Griddy and Texas officials have traded blame over who was responsible for price hikes that led to many Texans facing shockingly high energy bills in the days following the deadly storm. Griddy, which allows customers to choose between various plans, recommended that users switch to fixed-rate plans before the storm hit, and many who didn't found themselves facing extremely high rates for power use during the storm as much of the state's power grid failed. A Griddy co-founder, Gregory Craig, added in the company's statement that its price plans would not have resulted in the high energy bills had "had the grid not failed and the regulators not intervened." Texas officials say $29 million in electric bills to be forgiven Cornyn, Cruz to lead Senate delegation to border next week The company is accused of price-gouging in a class-action lawsuit, and the state's attorney general alleged in a lawsuit that Griddy violated Texas's Deceptive Trade Practices Act. “As Texans struggled to survive this winter storm, Griddy made the suffering even worse as it debited outrageous amounts each day. As the first lawsuit filed by my office to confront the outrageous failure of power companies, I will hold Griddy accountable for their escalation of this winter storm disaster," said state Attorney General Ken Paxton (R). Dozens of Texans and others in surrounding states died as a result of freezing conditions last month, while millions were left without power for days. Officials have blamed frozen machinery at natural gas plants, which provide much of the state's power, for the outages.
Paperwork failures worsened Texas blackouts during winter storm - Dozens of natural gas companies failed to do the paperwork that would keep their facilities powered during an emergency, so utilities cut their electricity at the very moment that power plants most needed fuel. The mid-storm scramble to fix the problem exposed a regulatory blind spot. On Valentine’s Day, the major utility that supplies electricity to West Texas readied for a severe winter storm. …. But the situation rapidly deteriorated as the storm bore down on Texas. At 1:20 a.m., the Electric Reliability Council of Texas, which manages the state’s power grid, ordered the first cut of power to bring demand down to match an extremely low power supply as the frigid temperatures caused power plants to rapidly trip offline. Oncor’s team, along with other utilities, began a plan to roll outages at 15- and 30-minute intervals. But just before 2 a.m., ERCOT ordered them to take even more power offline — then kept ordering more reductions. By late Monday morning, ERCOT had ordered 20,000 megawatts of power offline; Oncor’s share was 8,000 megawatts, or enough to power 1.6 million homes. Rolling the outages “quickly became impossible,” Nye said. “We sat there praying that electrons showed up.” With millions of Texans without power, Nye got an urgent request from DeAnn Walker, then chair of the Public Utility Commission: She needed Oncor to flip the switch back on to certain natural gas facilities that couldn’t deliver fuel to power plants without electricity. A PUC spokesperson said Walker was “ceaselessly” on the phone, calling Nye about dozens of natural gas facilities that weren't on Oncor’s “critical” list.That meant that Oncor, which delivers power to the Permian Basin — the state’s most productive oil and natural gas basin — had unwittingly shut off some of the state’s power supply when it followed orders to begin the outages.The desperate scramble to power up natural gas facilities again exposed a major structural flaw in Texas’ electric grid: Oncor and other utilities didn't have good lists of what they should consider critical infrastructure, including natural gas facilities — simply because natural gas companies failed to fill out a form or didn’t know the form existed, company executives, regulators and experts said.
US House of Representatives holds hearing on Texas winter storm disaster - The United States House Committee on Science, Space, and Technology held a hearing Thursday discussing the failure of Texas’ power grid during winter storm Uri in February. The disaster left millions without power and water and killed more than 50 people in Texas, many by hypothermia as temperatures remained well below freezing for days. From the very start of the meeting, it was clear that no serious attempt would be made by the Democratic Party-controlled committee to address the social crime that transpired last month. People wait in line to fill propane tanks Wednesday, Feb. 17, 2021, in Houston [Credit: AP Photo/David J. Phillip] The hearing, titled “Lessons Learned from the Texas Blackouts: Research Needs for a Secure and Resilient Grid,” focused almost entirely on discussing the role future research could play in building more reliable energy grids across the United States. The majority of the questions raised in the discussion were inquiries about balancing green energy with traditional sources, protecting America’s grid from foreign adversaries and how grids can be better managed locally. Entirely absent from the three-hour-long meeting was any detailed discussion of the underlying causes of the catastrophic failure of Texas’ electric infrastructure. Panelists mostly regurgitated what is common knowledge at this point: the state’s power grid operator, the Energy Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) failed to prepare for extreme winter events, fossil fuel power plants failed most spectacularly during the crisis and the United States needs to invest in its infrastructure. However, the question on the minds of millions of Americans is not what happened but rather why it happened. Why were energy corporations, which ultimately control Texas’ power grid, allowed to neglect power stations at the expense of the public? Why did multiple warnings on the need to winterize Texas’ energy production go unheeded for decades? Finally, what is being done to immediately address the issue? In her opening statement, Chairwoman Eddie Bernice Johnson (Democrat-Texas) made clear the advisory nature of the hearing. “I hope that as the Texas Legislature decides what to do in response to this crisis, they will heed the lessons that we all share with us today,” Johnson said. Therefore, the goal of the event essentially boiled down to assembling a panel of energy experts, asking them how to proceed, and passing down non-binding recommendations to the state government which bears a significant share of the responsibility for the disaster. For all intents and purposes, Thursday’s hearing was no different than those held in 1989 and 2011 after similar weather events prompted inquiries into Texas’ dilapidated power grid. For its part, Texas’ state government has done nothing. Currently, the state legislature is split on whether ERCOT should reverse a quarter of the $16 billion the organization charged power companies during the crisis. The only measure passed so far in relation to the power failures was a bill recognizing “the electrical utility line and generation workers of Texas for their efforts during the 2021 winter storm.”
Gas shortages played larger role in Texas blackouts, ex-ERCOT monitor suggests — The former independent monitor of ERCOT testified to Congress on Thursday she believed that almost half of the natural gas plant outages in February were caused by fuel shortages, suggesting they might have played a larger role in the dayslong blackouts than previously thought.Officials at Electric Reliability Council of Texas, which manages the state's power grid, have blamed frozen wellheads and pipelines and power outages at compressor stations for 37 percent of lost natural gas capacity, or about 9,300 of the 25,000 megawatts lost during the crisis.But in a hearing before the House Science, Space and Technology Committee, Beth Garza, who was director of ERCOT's Independent Market Monitor until 2019, testified that she'd heard that "maybe half the outages at gas plants were due to the lack of fuel.""It's too early to draw specific conclusions other than to realize the co-dependence of electricity and natural gas systems," Garza, now a senior fellow at the think tank R Street, said..An ERCOT spokeswoman said, "our facts haven’t changed, so I can’t speculate on how (Garza) is characterizing the information."For the numerous public officials in Austin and Washington studying the blackouts, dissecting the causes of last month's blackouts is an ongoing mission.Rep. Eddie Bernice Johnson, D-Dallas, chairwoman of the House Science Committee, said increasing incidents of extreme weather, which scientists have linked to climate change, made understanding exactly what went wrong in Texas critical to shoring up grids in Texas and around the nation."There was a lot of discussion in the immediate aftermath of the Texas blackouts about who to blame. There was a lot of misinformation and political jockeying, too," she said. "If we can get a clear-eyed understanding of how these failures occurred, we can help prevent them from happening in the future. What Texans endured last month must not be in vain."For now, scientists say, there is much to be learned about the power crisis. They want to know why power utilities didn't better use smart meters that the state spent billions of dollars to install to cycle power outages instead of leaving many residents in the dark for days, and why ERCOT's forecast for peak winter power demand was off by almost 10,000 megawatts.Among the most critical questions: To what degree did fuel shortages contribute to outages at natural gas plants, which ERCOT relies upon for about two-thirds of its winter peak capacity."How much of this capacity was lost due to failures in gas supply wells and pipeline networks and how much was due to failures at the power plants themselves is still not clear," Jesse Jenkins, an engineering professor at Princeton University, testified Thursday. "But what is clear is that this loss of (natural gas-fired) capacity was the single biggest contributor to the Texas blackouts."
Residents of Jackson, Mississippi still without water a month after outage - The water supply in Jackson, Mississippi remains largely unusable by residents a month after a historic winter storm swept through the Southern United States. The storm left millions in the South without heat or water as temperatures fell well below freezing for days on end, resulting in more than 70 deaths in Texas alone. Services across the South remain fragile or in a damaged state. Despite the restoration of water service, Jackson officials have maintained a boil-water advisory long after the extreme weather has dissipated, affecting more than 70 percent of residents. The boil-water notice has remained, preventing thousands of residents from using water for drinking, cooking, washing and bathing. Leaks and breaks in watermains caused by the freezing weather depleted the city’s water supply, cutting service for many weeks. Surface water samples are being sent to the Mississippi State Health Department (MSHD) this week to determine whether the boil-water advisory may be lifted. No fewer than 120 samples from various locations throughout the city will need to pass the sampling tests for two consecutive days for the boil-water notice to be lifted. However, the city lifted a precautionary boil-water notice for the 16,000 connections served by the Jackson Maddox Well System last week on Wednesday. At the peak of the crisis, approximately 160,000 residents in Jackson and neighboring cities like Clinton, Pearl and Byram were estimated to have lost water service. This was due to water pressure plummeting from its proper working level of 80 to 90 pounds per square inch (psi) to 37 psi. According to city officials, the water pressure has returned to normal. As the city has yet to prove that most of its water is safe for consumption residents remain reliant upon charity and donations from neighboring cities and states. The antiquated water system in Mississippi’s capital city, which has components over a century old, was found in 2016 to have elevated levels of lead, prompting comparisons to the water crisis in Flint, Michigan. Century-old pipes have been left vulnerable to extreme cold snaps, despite decades of warnings by engineers and climate scientists.
Annual U.S. coal exports drop 26% between 2019 and 2020 – EIA - In 2020, U.S. coal exports declined to 69 million metric short tons (MMst), a 26% decrease from 93 MMst in 2019. Steam coal exports, which accounted for 40% of the total, declined by more than one-third, dropping 34% from the previous year to 27 MMst. Metallurgical coal had a smaller, but still significant, decrease of 20%. The COVID-19 pandemic slowed global demand for coal, and some U.S. coal mines were idled for extended periods to slow the spread of the virus. Coal exports decreased significantly in April 2020 as the United States and countries around the world responded to the pandemic.Steam coal, also known as thermal coal, is used for electricity generation. Steam coal is ground into a fine powder that burns quickly at high heat. Power plants use this powder to heat water in boilers that run steam turbines to generate electricity. Steam coal can also be used to directly heat homes and businesses. Although steam coal is mined across the United States, most steam coal comes from the Powder River Basin in Wyoming and Montana.Metallurgical coal, or coking coal, can be used to produce coke, a primary fuel and reactant in the blast furnaceprocess for steelmaking. Demand for metallurgical coal is correlated with demand for steel. Most U.S. metallurgical coal comes from Appalachia.As U.S. exports of both coal types decreased, more of the exports went to fewer destinations in 2020. In 2020, the top five export destination countries for U.S. steam coal accounted for 73% of the total, which is up from the previous four-year average of 54%. The market for U.S. metallurgical coal saw a similar, although less significant, consolidation as the top five destination countries consumed 53% of total exports, which is up from the four-year average of 48%.Four of the top 10 U.S. coal export destinations—Brazil, Turkey, the Dominican Republic, and China—increased their imports of U.S. coal in 2020. Exports to the Dominican Republic increased by 1.3 MMst, more than double its 2019 U.S. coal imports and the largest increase of all export destinations.U.S. coal exports to Japan decreased by 45% and to the Netherlands by 43%. The Netherlands serves as the primary transshipment hub for the European Union (EU), importing coal and then sending it to other EU countries. In 2020, U.S. coal production decreased by 24% (166 MMst) from 2019 to 539 MMst. The COVID-19 pandemic contributed to the global downturn in coal demand, which had already been declining. As a share of coal production, coal exports represented 13% of total production in 2020, unchanged from the previous year.
Less electricity was generated by coal than nuclear in the United States in 2020 - U.S. coal-fired electricity generated totaled 774 million megawatthours (MWh) in 2020, which is less than both natural gas-fired (1.6 billion MWh) and nuclear-powered generation (790 million MWh), according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) Electric Power Monthly. Last year marked the first time that coal was not the largest or second-largest source of annual electricity generation in the United States since at least 1949. However, EIA expects U.S. coal-fired electricity generation to increase and for nuclear-powered electricity generation to decrease in both 2021 and 2022.Coal-fired electricity generation in the United States has continued to decrease as coal-fired generating units have been retired or converted to use other fuels and as the remaining coal-fired generating units have been used less often. U.S. operating coal-fired electricity generation capacity measured 313 gigawatts (GW) in 2008. In that year, the earliest for which EIA’s State Electricity Profiles have capacity factor data, coal’s capacity factor was 72%.Capacity factors measure the actual generation output for a fleet of generators as a percentage of what those generators are capable of generating. By 2020, coal’s operating capacity had fallen to 223 GW, and the coal fleet’s capacity factor had fallen to 40%.Nuclear-powered generation was relatively steady in the previous decade. Although several nuclear power plants were retired, that decline in capacity was partially offset by uprates at several plants and the addition of Watts Bar Unit 2 in Tennessee. U.S. nuclear power, with 97 GW of capacity in 2020, has less than half as much operating capacity as coal, but nuclear power plants are operated more intensively. Nuclear’s capacity factor in 2020 was 93%.In the most recent Short-Term Energy Outlook, EIA expects U.S. coal-fired generation to increase and for nuclear-powered generation to decrease in both 2021 and 2022. EIA expects that increases in natural gas prices will make coal more competitive in the electric power sector. This expected increase in coal’s utilization more than offsets the upcoming retirement of 2.8 GW of coal capacity in 2021 and another 8.5 GW in 2022, according to planned changes reported to EIA by owners and developers and compiled in EIA’s Preliminary Monthly Electric Generator Inventory.EIA expects nuclear-powered electricity generation to decrease because three nuclear plants (totaling 5.1 GW of capacity) plan to retire in 2021. Another plant, Michigan’s Palisades, plans to retire in 2022. One nuclear power plant, Vogtle, in Georgia, plans to add 1.1 GW of capacity in November 2021 and 1.1 GW in November 2022, based on information reported to EIA.
U.S. Joins India And China In Ramping Coal Usage To Pre-Pandemic Levels - Major users of coal across the world are set to ramp up their usage of the fossil fuel in coming months.Power plants in the U.S. are expected to consume 16% more coal this year than in 2020 and another 3% on top of that in 2022. China and India also have "no plans to cut back" their use of burning the fossil fueld. In fact, "it’ll almost be as if the pandemic-induced drop in emissions never happened," Bloomberg reports. Inevitably, this will result in higher emissions, which stands at stark odds with the climate initiatives that President Joe Biden ran on. Amanda Levin, policy analyst at the New York-based National Resources Defense Council said: “We’re going to see a really marked increase in emissions with coal consumption at U.S. power plants returning almost to 2019 levels."She says that changes to mitigate usage could happen quickly if Biden implements his planned green-energy policies. In the U.S., the ramp comes as a result of both costlier natural gas, and a broad re-opening from the pandemic. For India and China, the steady use is indicative of growing demand, despite the fact that both countries are trying to use wind and solar, as well. China's power consumption, for example, has grown, despite the country reducing coal's share in the nation's energy makeup. President Biden's upcoming infrastructure bill is expected to include plans to "fulfill his campaign pledges on climate change, making the U.S. best poised to salvage progress in reducing global emissions," Bloomberg reports.
Bill would ease burden of proof for black lung benefits (AP) — U.S. Sen. Joe Manchin of West Virginia has introduced a new bill aimed toward helping the families of miners who die due to black lung disease, which is caused by inhaling coal dust. The bill would lift some burdens off families who currently need to provide proof that black lung disease was the substantial contributing cause of death in order to access benefits, according to a news release from Manchin’s office. The benefits were established in a 1972 law and are required to be paid out by coal mining companies or the Black Lung Disability Trust Fund. Five of his Democratic colleagues unveiled the bill on Tuesday. Manchin said the bill would “help cut through the bureaucratic red tape that can delay access to benefits, as well as improving access to legal representation for miners and the survivors of miners.”
Methane from upcoming coal mines could impact climate more than US coal plants: report (Reuters) - Methane leaks from planned coal mines around the world could have a bigger climate impact than carbon emissions from U.S. coal plants, a research group said on Thursday, detailing what it said was an overlooked source of planet-warming emissions. Despite efforts by governments to crack down on fossil fuels, nonprofit Global Energy Monitor said in a report there are more than 430 proposed coal mines in the world which are likely to emit large amounts of methane, the second biggest contributor to climate change after carbon dioxide. The countries with the highest amount respectively of potential methane emissions from planned coal mines are China, Australia, Russia, India, South Africa, the United States and Canada, it said. “Coal mine methane has dodged scrutiny for years even though there’s clear evidence it poses a significant climate impact,” said Ryan Driskell Tate, a Global Energy Monitor research analyst and the report’s author. “If new coal mines proceed as planned, without mitigation measures in place, then a major source of greenhouse gas will go unrestrained.” Planned mines, some of which are in the late development stage, could leak methane at a rate equal to 1.14 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide annually, the report said, more than the 952 million tonnes of carbon dioxide U.S. coal plants released in 2019. Coal companies can capture methane and burn it in operations or sell it to industry, resulting in less of a climate impact than allowing it to leak. The World Coal Association, in a response to a request for comment on the report, said its members are committed to playing a role in helping the countries achieve emissions reductions goals and that zero emissions coal is technically achievable. Explosive leaks of methane at coal mines have been a safety risk since mining began. The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency estimated in 2019 that emissions from abandoned and operating coal mines account for 9% of global methane releases.
EPA finalizes rule aimed at reducing smog pollution across state lines -The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has finalized a rule that aims to reduce smog pollution from 12 states that can cross state lines, it announced late Monday. The rule will require additional controls for nitrogen oxides, which can form smog or ozone pollution, on power plants in the dozen states. It follows a 2019 court decision requiring the agency to take additional action to prevent downwind states from being impacted by their neighbors’ pollution. The rule was first proposed in October under the Trump administration, but was finalized this year, making it among the first environmental actions the Biden administration has carried out. “The action we are taking today will not only help states meet their clean air obligations, but, more importantly, deliver cleaner, healthier air to millions of Americans starting this summer,” EPA Administrator Michael Regan said in a statement. The agency said it expects to reduce nitrogen oxide emissions by 17,000 tons starting this year. Exposure to these types of pollutants have been linked to lung issues including asthma attacks. While advocates characterized the rule as a positive step, some said they wished the Biden administration had worked toward more significant reductions. “They could have required greater reductions in ... the emissions that create ozone,” said Kathleen Riley, an attorney with Earthjustice. Riley also took issue with a provision that allows states to buy credits from others that make more progress on reducing emissions, saying this can create pollution “hot spots” for the states that don’t sufficiently reduce pollution. “We’ve seen how relatively unrestricted emissions credit trading can create those pollution hot spots and we think that emissions credits trading in the future has to be restricted to protect overburdened communities,” she said. The rule will impact emissions from Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maryland, Michigan, New Jersey, New York, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia and West Virginia./p>
UTILITIES: FirstEnergy outlines millions in dark money payments -- Monday, March 15, 2021 -- FirstEnergy Corp., the utility at the center of an ongoing bribery scandal in its home state of Ohio, acknowledged that a subsidiary sent more than $56 million to a dark money group used to help push for passage of a controversial energy law.
Timing key in consulting deal between FirstEnergy, regulator(AP) — Shortly before a utility lawyer and lobbyist was appointed Ohio’s top regulator of electric and power generating companies, he received $4.3 million from top executives at one of the companies whose fortunes would soon be in his hands. In the months that followed, that company — Akron-based FirstEnergy Corp. — won a string of legislative and regulatory victories worth well over $1 billion over time to the company and its subsidiaries, including a nuclear plant bailout that’s at the center of a $60 million federal bribery probe. The bulk of that tab was to be paid by the state’s electricity customers. What investigators at the state and federal levels now want to know is whether Sam Randazzo, the utility lawyer-turned-regulator who has since resigned, helped FirstEnergy in exchange for millions. The payment to a future state official meeting Randazzo’s description received from then-executives of the utilities giant in January 2019 is the subject of an ongoing audit by the Public Utilities Commission of Ohio, which Randazzo chaired from April 2019 to last November, when he resigned under a cloud. Corporate filings from November differed in the descriptions provided to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission of the payment made by fired top officials. FirstEnergy’s board of directors fired CEO Chuck Jones and two other executives weeks earlier for having “violated certain FirstEnergy policies and its code of conduct.” FirstEnergy’s quarterly earnings report said the payment terminated a “purported consulting contract” dating back to 2013. Recent sleuthing by Energy and Policy Institute, a pro-renewable energy watchdog group, unearthed a disclosure in lending documents that suggested Randazzo was paid for future work, creating questions on what actions he might have taken as PUCO chair on behalf of FirstEnergy. FirstEnergy spokeswoman Jennifer Young declined to address differences between the disclosures. Reached by The Associated Press, Randazzo declined comment. CEO Chuck Keiper of NOPEC, Ohio’s largest nonprofit energy aggregator, called revelations in the filings “shocking.” He said in a statement that they raise questions of “whether there was something nefarious going on” at the PUCO. NOPEC is fighting FirstEnergy and the PUCO in the Ohio Supreme Court over what they allege was an illegal decision made under Randazzo in early 2020.
Lobbyist Neil Clark, Defendant In Ohio Nuclear Bailout Case, Found Dead At 67 | WOSU Radio -Neil Clark, a longtime Ohio lobbyist indicted in a sweeping federal bribery investigation into the state's nuclear bailout law, has been found dead in Florida. Former U.S. Attorney David DeVillers mentioned Clark’s death during a presentation Tuesday. The Naples, Fla. medical examiner says they are conducting an autopsy on the 67-year-old Clark, following a sheriff's office report of a man found dead with a head wound and a gun on the premises. Reports say a cyclist found Clark's body in a wooded area in a neighborhood called the Golden Gate district near the border of Collier and Logan counties. Clark was known to have a residence in Naples. The Naples-area medical examiner says the full autopsy report will be made available to law enforcement once completed. Clark was the chief financial officer for the Ohio Senate Republicans in the 1980s before becoming a lobbyist, first in a partnership with Paul Tipps, former Ohio Democratic Party chair. That lasted until a high-profile breakup in 2005. Then, on his own, Clark represented several major clients, including the payday lending industry, the former online school ECOT, and the Ohio Public Employees Retirement System. Clark was one of several defendants charged with racketeering last year in connection with HB6, Ohio's nuclear bailout law. Federal prosecutors say the $61 million bribery scheme funneled money from FirstEnergy companies to then-Ohio House Speaker Larry Householder, in exchange for securing a $1 billion bailout benefiting several plants owned by First Energy and its former subsidiaries. Clark pleaded not guilty in August. Householder has also pleaded not guilty in the case. Two other defendants and the dark money group Generation Now, which prosecutors said was created and operated at Householder's discretion, have entered guilty pleas.
Larry Householder Says He Won't Resign While Facing Federal Trial | WOSU Radio --Former Ohio Speaker Larry Householder (R-Glenford) was back at work in the Ohio House on Wednesday, after his fellow Republicans to discuss whether he should be ejected from the legislature as he awaits trial on federal corruption charges. Householder, who was attended that caucus meeting, says he’s not resigning. "I'm qualified to serve and I was elected to serve and I intend to serve the people of the 72nd House District of the state of Ohio to the best of my ability," Householder said. "Nothing more to say."Householder faces federal racketeering charges for allegedly leading a $61 million conspiracy that funneled money from FirstEnergy through a dark money group for his personal and political benefit, including getting him elected House Speaker, in exchange for helping pass and then defend a nuclear bailout law.Householder pleaded not guilty in the case. Even after being voted out as House Speaker, he went on to defeat several write-in candidates to win re-election last fall.His successor as speaker, Bob Cupp, said resignation would be the honorable thing. However, Cupp wouldn't say what happened in the discussion about Householder in Tuesday's caucus meeting. “I have no news to report, no updates," Cupp said on a call with reporters after session. "And, of course, you know I have a longstanding policy about not talking about internal caucus communications.”House Democrats have previously proposed expelling Householder. Elected Republicans in his district have also written to Cupp asking for Householder to be removed. Two other defendants in the federal bribery case have pleaded guilty, along with the dark money group Generation Now, which said it was formed at Householder's behest. A third defendant, the lobbyist Neil Clark, was found dead in Florida earlier this week.
Federal judge orders no new fracking in Wayne National Forest - Farm and Dairy - A federal judge blocked new oil and gas development in Ohio’s only national forest.The decision comes after a ruling last year found the Bureau of Land Management and U.S. Forest Service failed to adequately consider the environmental impacts hydraulic fracturing could have on Wayne National Forest.The U.S. District Court of the Southern District of Ohioordered a review of U.S. Bureau of Land Management’s 2016 environmental assessment and the U.S. Forest Service’s consent to lease that gave the OK to lease the federal lands.Pending review, the order also prohibits new leases in Wayne National Forest, prohibits new drilling permits and surface disturbance on existing leases and halts water withdrawal from the Little Muskingum River for any drilling that’s already occurring.Judge Michael Watson said in his opinion that the Bureau of Land Management and Forest Service failed to take the requisite “hard look” at the impacts of fracking in the Wayne, including impacts to air quality, surface area disturbance and cumulative impacts on the Indiana Bat and Little Muskingum River. Environmental groups sued the Forest Service and Bureau of Land Management in May 2017 over plans to permit fracking in the Wayne.The Ohio Environmental Club, Sierra Club, Heartwood and Center for Biological Diversity argued that the federal agencies relied on outdated information and ignored “significant environmental threats” before opening the Wayne’s 40,000-acre Marietta unit to unconventional gas development in October 2016. The Wayne National Forest is Ohio’s only national forest. It’s split into three non-contiguous sections. The Marietta unit is the eastern most section and consists of more than 268,000 acres of private and federal lands. There are already about 1,200 active vertical wells in the entire forest.The Bureau of Land Management sold 679 acres in Monroe and Washington counties in its first lease auction in December 2016 and another 1,147 acres in a second auction in March 2017.
Ohio lawmakers seek to limit local authority over fossil-fuel use—Ohio Republican lawmakers are again looking to hamstring local governments’ ability to pass pro-environmental ordinances -- this time, by cutting off potential attempts by communities to rein in the use of fossil fuels.Twin bills introduced in the Ohio House and Senate would, if passed, prevent local governments from limiting residents’ use of natural gas. A third bill, introduced in the House, would prevent local bans on oil or gas pipelines, as well as restrictions on the use of any fossil fuel for electricity generation.Environmental activists in Ohio and other states who feel stymied by GOP-dominated state legislatures have increasingly turned to local governments to pass a wish-list of initiatives that promote green energy and cut carbon emissions.Republican lawmakers, who oppose such efforts for both ideological and practical reasons, have increasingly focused on heading them off. Last fall, Gov. Mike DeWine signed a bill imposing a one-year moratorium on local bans of plastic bags.The bills to block limits on natural gas use, House Bill 201 and Senate Bill 127, will ensure residents have access to a reliable source of heat in the winter, said state Rep. Jason Stephens, a Lawrence County Republican who introduced the House version.Stephens said while he hasn’t heard of any Ohio cities restricting natural gas use, dozens of cities on the East and West Coasts have voted to ban natural-gas hookups for new buildings to reduce emissions that cause global warming.Bills similar to Stephens’ prohibiting such bans have already been passed in Arizona, Tennessee, Oklahoma and Louisiana.Stephens, who chairs the Ohio House Energy and Natural Resources Committee, said people he talked to from the natural gas industry indicated this was “a big concern” for them. Given Ohio’s significant natural gas reserves, Stephens said, “It only makes sense to me that if we have that abundant source of energy, that we make sure that we are allowed to use it and we don’t restrain folks who want access to it.”
Ohio legislation would stop towns from banning natural gas – Three bills recently introduced to the Ohio legislature seek to stop local governments from limiting the use of certain types of energy.House Bill 201 and Senate Bill 127 would prevent local governments from limiting the use of natural gas.The House version was introduced by Rep. Jason Stephens, R-Kitts Hill. It was sent to the House Energy and Natural Resources Committee, which Stephens chairs, on March 16. The Senate version, introduced by Sens. Michael Rulli, R-Salem, and George Lang, R-West Chester, was sent to the committee on March 17.Similar legislation has popped up in Indiana, Iowa, Kansas and other states this year. Tennessee, Oklahoma, Arizona and Louisiana enacted laws in 2020 prohibiting bans on natural gas.It all stems from moves on the West Coast to prohibit or limit the use of natural gas in new buildings.It started in Berkley, California. The city council there passed the nation’s first ban on natural gas hookups in new buildings in 2019. Since then dozens of other cities, mostly in California, have passed similar restrictions. Most recently, Seattle enacted legislation to ban natural gas in new buildings in early February.While he hasn’t heard of any Ohio cities considering such an action, Stephens told Farm and Dairy that he thought it best to address the issue before it became an issue. Before becoming a state representative in 2019, Stephens worked in local government for 20 years. He’s seen how a village or city can make decisions seemingly on a whim.If someone does not want natural gas coming to their house, “just take the meter out,” Stephens said. There’s no reason to eliminate the choice for others who do want to use gas to heat their homes or power their stoves.“It just made sense to me that if people have access to natural gas, if they like it, they should continue to have access to it without a government at any level saying they can’t,” Stephens told Farm and Dairy.Another similar piece of legislation, House Bill 192, would prohibit local governments from prohibiting energy generation from fossil fuels. The bill would also prohibit local governments from banning the construction or use of oil and gas pipelines. Sponsor Rep. Al Cutrona, R-Canfield, said in a press release that the purpose of the bill is to prevent possible rate increases.“Ohioans should not be penalized with increased rates if their local government passes new restrictions that so drastically impact utilities’ energy generation practices,” he said in the release.
When A Gas Plant Moves Next Door – WOSU - Kevin and Marlene Young built their house in the country, so they had space for horses. “I was raised around horses, and that’s my love,” Marlene said. With names like Buckeye Blast and Creekside Pete, their horses aren’t just pets. They built a half mile track to train them as racehorses. Their horses have won tens of thousands of dollars in prize money. Surrounded mostly by farmland here in Guernsey County, Ohio, 65 miles west of the Pennsylvania border, they have space to grow grass for hay. The Youngs also built their home into something of a tourist business. When a scenic railroad started running on the train tracks along their property, it would stop here. They opened an antique shop, and even hosted weddings in the outdoor setting. “We’re getting ready to retire. I thought we had it handled,” Marlene said. Visiting them now, things don’t seem handled. Big trucks drive past the house throughout the day. The farm field next door has become an industrial construction site. The air is often filled with dust — there’s a thick layer of it on their new truck. Some nights, bright construction lights shine through their windows. “I mean, come on man, that’s unbelievable,” Marlene said. In the summer of 2019, Caithness Energy started building one of the largest natural gas power plants of its kind in the nation. Thanks to fracking, cheap natural gas is replacing coal to generate electricity. According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, this site is one of 30 natural gas-fired generators planned in Ohio and Pennsylvania. EIA expects 231 new utility-scale natural gas generators to be built in the U.S. by 2024. There’s already a pipeline that will run natural gas from the region to this site. Once constructed, the Guernsey Power Station will generate 1,875 megawatts, enough power the company says for 1.5 million homes. But the Youngs don’t want to live next door to it. Like others who live nearby, they say the construction has caused cracks in their walls. Before it was a farm field, the site was a coal mine. To stabilize it, Caithness got a permit from the Ohio EPA to drill about a thousand holes in the ground and fill them with cement grout. The land was also known to flood, so the company is moving dirt in some spots to raise it 20 feet. But Kevin said when it rains, water now runs off, flooding his property.“This way, I’m taking all the water,” he said. “It’s like a lake.” In November, Ohio EPA issued two notices of violation to Gemma Power Systems, the company building the plant for Caithness, for problems with erosion and sediment running off the property. But much damage has already been done. One of their horses got startled by the construction equipment just over the fence, and injured itself. “And she was laid up for a month, and we had to dress this leg every day,” Kevin explained.Between incidents like that, and the dusty air, the Youngs have stopped training their horses, sometimes even putting them on respirators.
Rebuttal: Oil and gas industry are good for Ohio communities despite report - -- From the car dealers selling vehicles so quickly they can barely keep up with demand, to the construction crews who are as busy as they have ever been, area businesses in Ohio’s shale country are thriving thanks to the investments and economic activity being generated by the oil and gas industry. As commissioners from these counties, we see how the industry is benefitting our communities and constituents every day. That is why we were stunned to see a recent article in The Dispatch argue that the oil and gas industry has not been an economically uplifting force in our communities.The February article, "Report: Ohio fracking counties saw declines in jobs, population and income," blatantly distorted and misrepresented facts while detailing a report by theOhio River Valley Institute, an organization of radical activists whose main purpose is to promote renewable energy sources.The facts are that the oil and gas industry has invested more than $60 billion in Ohio to support upstream activities such as drilling, extraction and leasing since 2011. That number comes from a report out of Cleveland State University which was commissioned by JobsOhio. That same report showed that from July 2019 to December 2019, the industry invested more than $400 million in Belmont County alone. Let that sink in, $400 million in one county in just six months. In that same time period the industry invested $206,280,000 in Harrison County and $168,480,000 in Guernsey County. The report also indicates that the industry has provided more than $1 billion to build and repair roads since 2011. The numbers are clear, the oil and gas industry is an economic engine in eastern Ohio. The shale boom has made our communities more prosperous than they have ever been, and you don’t have to take our word for it. We invite anyone who wants to see for themselves to visit our counties and spend some time speaking to the locals.
FERC, in signal on pipeline compliance, takes action on Rover, Midship — The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission took two steps March 18 that its new chairman said should send a "clear message" to natural gas pipeline companies that the commission will "not look the other way" when companies fail to meet responsibilities. The commission ordered Energy Transfer Partners and Rover Pipeline to show why they should not pay a proposed $20.2 million civil penalty in relation to allegations of misleading FERC about the destruction of an Ohio farmhouse during the application process for the 3.25 Bcf/d, 711-mile Rover project (IN19-4). FERC also directed Cheniere Energy's Midship Pipeline to remedy outstanding restoration issues on certain tracts of land and encouraged the company to enter dispute resolution to help address remaining damage that occurred during construction, according to FERC Chairman Richard Glick. The 199.7-mile, 1.4 Bc/d pipeline project, designed to move gas to the US Gulf Coast and Southeast markets from Oklahoma 's Anadarko Basin, has faced concerns from landowners about outstanding impacts to properties following construction (CP17-458, CP19-17). Glick called attention to both actions at the start of FERC's March 18 open meeting."I think it is important to remind pipeline developers that when they apply for a certificate of public convenience and necessity that they must be truthful, and that when they receive a certificate, which conditions the right to build and operate the pipeline with a requirement of the developer repairing the damage it creates during construction, that they need to take that responsibility seriously." "This commission is not going to look the other way," he added. In his view, FERC has several options and "revocation of the certificate itself, must be on the table" for projects that fail to meet responsibilities.During a press briefing with reporters, Glick underscored his view that "we need to send a clear message to certificate holders" that when they agree to a duty of candor or to act in an environmentally sound manner, "you mean that and we're not going to look the other way."The commission voted 5-0 to issue the show cause order in relation to Rover and gave the company 30 days to respond to the enforcement staff report.
Ascent Resources to Curb Utica Spending, Stay Disciplined in 2021 - Ascent Resources Utica Holdings LLC, Ohio’s largest oil and natural gas producer, plans to cut spending this year and hold production flat to 2020 levels as the industry continues to take a more conservative financial approach. The Ohio pure-play has issued 2021 capital guidance at a range of $550-600 million and intends to maintain production at 2 Bcfe/d. Ascent spent $657 million last year and produced just over 1.9 Bcfe/d after curtailing 40 Bcfe of volumes, as other operators did when commodity prices were hit by the Covid-19 outbreak.The company intends to run up to four operated rigs this year on its acreage in the southeast part of the state. It plans to spud up to 65 wells and turn up to 70 to sales.Ascent, which is privately owned, is forecasting up to $150 million of free cash flow (FCF) this year based on current market conditions. The company reported $114 million of FCF for full-year 2020.“Ascent has successfully delivered on its operational and financial objectives in 2020,” CEO Jeff Fisher said. He added that the company was able to navigate through the challenging year by “staying disciplined, leveraging our operational capabilities and improving our balance sheet.” Ascent is also the nation’s eighth largest natural gas producer. The company holds 340,000 net acres in Ohio that came together after the late Aubrey McClendon was ousted from the helm of former Utica Shale heavyweight, Chesapeake Energy Corp., and founded Ascent’s predecessor before it was spun-off and became independent.Ascent produced nearly 1.9 Bcfe/d in the fourth quarter, which included the impact of 9 Bcfe of curtailments. Ascent produced 2.3 Bcfe/d in 4Q2019. Fourth quarter net income was $169 million, compared to net income of $65.3 million in the year-ago period. The company reported a net loss of $590 million for the full year, including a $100 million impairment on unproved oil and gas properties. That’s compared with 2019 net income of $466 million. Last year’s average realized prices, including the impact of derivatives, were $2.71/Mcfe, down from $3.02 in 2019.
Why Frack Wastewater Injected Underground Doesn't Always Stay There -- Salty wastewater produced by fracking for oil and gas has to go somewhere. Often, it’sinjected into disposal wells deep underground. But sometimes that wastewater can find its way back to the surface and cause environmental problems. How? We turned to three experts to find out.
Pennsylvania lawmakers urge Gov. Wolf to protect residents following EHN fracking investigation – EHN -On the heels of an Environmental Health News (EHN) study, 35 members of the Pennsylvania House and Senate have issued a public letter calling on state Governor Tom Wolf to take "immediate action in response to the ongoing harm" from fracking.The letter, led by State Senator Katie Muth and State Representatives Sara Innamorato, points to a study recently published by EHN that found evidence of exposure to harmful chemicals in families living near fracking wells."Recent studies, such as the multifamily investigation published by the Environmental Health News, highlight the true risk so many Pennsylvania families face due to toxic and radioactive contamination caused by fracking," said Senator Muth in a statement.The two-year investigation, which is documented in a four-part series, found alarming evidence of toxic industrial chemicals linked to fracking in the urine of families living nearby, in addition to finding harmful chemicals like benzene, toluene, and naphthalene in the families' air and drinking water. Several children in the study had biomarkers for exposure to cancer-causing chemicals in their bodies at levels that exceed those seen in the average adult cigarette smoker.The study, led by EHN reporter Kristina Marusic, is the first time families in western Pennsylvania have been tested for exposure to chemicals emitted from fracking operations—and only the second study nationwide to examine such impacts from oil and gas drilling."The initial outcomes are alarming in terms of the effects on the long-term health and safety of these residents," the lawmakers wrote. "This study adds to an ever-growing mountain of evidence comprising more than ten years of epidemiological studies from across the United States that demonstrate a connection between a person's proximity to shale gas development and a host of negative human health conditions, significant ecological impacts, and dire economic projections for the affected individuals."The letter urges Governor Wolf to use the same biomonitoring techniques employed inEHN's investigation to conduct similar testing on a wider scale, and points out that last month the commissioners of the Delaware River Basin Commission, including Gov. Wolf, banned fracking in the Delaware River Basin, which includes parts of eastern Pennsylvania.
Advocacy group says Shell's Falcon Pipeline under investigation for safety issues -Shell's controversial multistate pipeline is under investigation by several state and federal agencies for issues that an environmental advocacy group said poses serious threats to public safety, workers and natural resources. FracTracker Alliance, a nonprofit that focuses on the oil-and-gas industry, obtained documents that indicate an investigation into safety matters with the Shell Falcon Pipeline involving the Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection, the state Attorney General, the Pipeline Hazardous Materials Safety Administration and the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. According to a release, the investigation focuses on potential "noncompliance with construction and public safety requirements and alleged cover-up of incidents that could put the public at risk."A Shell Pipeline spokesman said that government and regulatory agencies have provided oversight throughout the construction process. "It’s our view we have demonstrated an unwavering commitment to safe construction and operations through the robust design and installation of the Falcon Pipeline," a spokesman said. "Construction and inspection procedures related to Falcon meet or exceed all safety standards and requirements."The 97.5-mile pipeline system will pass through Ohio, West Virginia and Pennsylvania to deliver ethane to Shell Chemicals' petrochemical plant in Potter Township. Installation of the pipeline is complete and has been connected on the supply ends and to the cracker plant. While there is no ethane product in the pipeline at this time, Shell officials expect it to become an active pipeline at some time in the next two months. A spokesman said officials do not expect final commissioning of the pipeline until sometime in 2022.Falcon has come under fire for potential impacts to the Ambridge reservoir and other major drinking water sources in the region. The pipeline was installed between 4,100 and 5,1000 feet east of the reservoir and crosses 61 feet below the water authorities' raw water line, which connects the reservoir to a treatment plant. The route, in total, runs between two dozen towns in Pennsylvania and three bodies of water in the Ambridge reservoir watershed alone.
Falcon Pipeline, which provides natural gas to Shell cracker plant, under investigation for possible corrosion - PGH City Paper -Last year, a natural gas pipeline being constructed through Southwestern Pennsylvania garnered the attention of Pennsylvania’s Department of Environmental Protection, who then notified federal agencies in charge of regulating pipelines and other environmental concerns. In a February 2020 letter to the federal Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety Administration, Pa. Department of Environmental Protection Secretary Patrick McDonnell wrote that issues “pose a possible threat of product release, landslide, or even explosion.” According to the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette, McDonnell mentioned witnesses with “first-hand knowledge of bad corrosion coatings, falsification of records and reports, retaliatory firings and other actions by Shell,” who owns the Falcon Pipeline. This led PHMSA to conduct an investigation into the pipeline, which is currently ongoing. The Falcon Pipeline will run 98 miles through Southwestern Pennsylvania, West Virginia, and Ohio and will deliver ethane to the cracker plant in Beaver County, which will refine the natural gas liquid into plastic pellets. When completed, oil giant Shell will run both the Falcon Pipeline and the cracker plant. The investigation is focused on possible noncompliance of public safety requirements during construction of the pipeline and an alleged cover up of incidents that could put the public at risk, according to the FracTracker Alliance, an advocacy organization that obtained documents in connection to the investigation. FracTracker Alliance is particularly concerned with allegations of corrosion of the Falcon Pipelines, as corrosion failure is the second leading cause of incidents occurring on pipelines. “Residents of the Ohio River Valley know too well the serious and life-threatening impacts that have come from rushed pipeline construction in the wake of the fracking buildout,” says Erica Jackson of FracTracker Alliance in a press release. “We hope that regulators will take all necessary action to protect public welfare and bring justice for workers who may have been unfairly terminated.” A spokesperson for Shell confirmed to the Post-Gazette that federal officials conducted audits of the Falcon Pipeline and said PHMSA officials “found no issues with installed coatings.” Shell said it also completed inspection of all the welds as an effort to prevent corrosion, and installed more emergency shutoff valves than necessary and buried the pipeline deeper than and used a thicker pipe than federally mandated.
Federal, state agencies probing Shell's Falcon ethane pipeline after whistleblowers' allegations - Early last year, Pennsylvania’s top environmental official tried to raise an alarm at the highest level of the federal agency responsible for pipeline safety. “I write to you regarding a very serious public safety matter for Pennsylvania,” the letter from Patrick McDonnell, secretary of Pennsylvania’s Department of Environmental Protection, began.The DEP, he said, had credible information that some sections of Shell Pipeline’s Falcon project “may have been constructed with defective corrosion coating protection.” He also mentioned witnesses with “first-hand knowledge of bad corrosion coatings, falsification of records and reports, retaliatory firings and other actions by Shell.”A coating protects the metal pipeline from being exposed to elements that can cause it to corrode. Corrosion doesn’t typically occur early in the pipeline’s life, but is a leading cause of ruptures in older pipelines. “These are very serious allegations, they deserve thorough investigation and appropriate resolution,” Mr. McDonnell stressed to Howard Elliott, administrator of the Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety Administration. It was, in fact, PHMSA that received intelligence from a whistleblower in early 2019 with concerns about how the project was being handled. The federal agency oversees the installation and operation of pipelines, not environmental matters. So when it came across concerns of potential underreporting of drilling mud spills on the pipeline, PHMSA sent that information to the DEP.For months, the two agencies exchanged information. The DEP, alarmed about what it was finding, had also started to loop in investigators from the Pennsylvania attorney general’s office. It briefed officials at the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency and made contact with the U.S. Occupational Safety and Health Administration, which was also contacted by a whistleblower on the Falcon project.As late as January 2020, DEP investigators were emailing with the head of safety at PHMSA about the Falcon pipeline, while at the same time sending the language of Mr. McDonnell’s letter to PHMSA’s head to various DEP lawyers for review. mWhat Mr. McDonnell was saying — that a PHMSA inquiry into potential corrosion defects was “incomplete” and urging the agency to take a more serious look at the issue, while essentially copying its superiors on the note — was a serious action.PHMSA confirmed that its investigation into the project was ongoing. “We looked into the concerns raised by the DEP but the results are not yet available,” the agency said. A spokesman for Shell Pipeline said PHMSA officials “conducted three on-site audits of the Falcon Pipeline and found no issues with installed coatings.”The company also listed steps it took to prevent corrosion. Since the pipeline was installed, Shell said, it had completed “100% post-installation inspections of all welds,” pressure-tested the pipeline and conducted an inline inspection, the results of which were shared with PHMSA. Little is known about the scope of the DEP’s findings. Mr. McDonnell’s letter to PHMSA was one of a handful of documents that surfaced after the environmental advocacy group FracTracker Alliance requested public records related to the agency’s investigation. A log of 111 documents that were not released, however, suggests the DEP was in contact with at least two confidential informants, had access to photos and notes from the pipeline job, and followed up with other agencies to see how their investigations were progressing. Within its own jurisdiction, the DEP issued several notices of violation to Shell Pipeline.
Whistleblower Claims Dangerous Defects in Pipeline for Shell's Pennsylvania Plastics Plant --A whistleblower has alleged that the Falcon pipeline — a 98-mile-long fossil fuel pipeline that will soon feed Shell’s massive plastics manufacturing site under construction in western Pennsylvania — was built with defective protection against corrosion. That's according to public records obtained by the nonprofit FracTracker Alliance and which reveal that state regulators complained last year that federal authorities had failed to adequately investigate the reports of defects.In that letter, dated February 26, 2020, obtained by FracTracker via a right-to-know request, Patrick McDonnell, secretary of the Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection, wrote to the nation’s top pipeline safety regulator describing “a very serious public safety matter for Pennsylvania.”“The Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection (PA DEP) has received what appears to be credible information that sections of Shell’s Falcon Pipeline project in western PA, developed for the transportation of ethane liquid, may have been constructed with defective corrosion coating protection,” McDonnell wrote, adding that PA DEP had obtained and sent federal pipeline regulators additional information “which appears to corroborate the whistleblower’s original allegations.”The letter appears to be the first public reference to allegations that the Falcon pipeline's corrosion protection may be faulty. FracTracker also obtained a log of over a hundred emails and documents apparently related to one or more informants on Falcon, largely involving discussions between attorneys with the PA DEP and other state and federal agencies. The state declined to provide FracTracker with the documents listed in that log, though it did provide a summary of the contents of each communication and indicate who was involved, in some cases providing full names of state officials, in others listing a “Confidential Informant.”The February 2020 letter outlines serious concern among state regulators. “While PA DEP does not regulate the construction, maintenance or operation of the pipeline itself, our staff was alarmed by the whistleblower’s allegations,” McDonnell wrote, “and concerned for the safety of people living along the pathway of the Falcon Pipeline.” The letter asserts that federal authorities had done an inadequate job of responding to the whistleblower’s allegations, despite the dangers posed when anti-corrosion coatings on pipelines fail. “Corroded pipes pose a possible threat of product release, landslide, or even explosion,” McDonnell added. But, he went on, the federal Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety Agency (PHMSA) conducted only a “brief inquiry in 2019” that reported finding no coating problems. “PA DEP believes PHMSA’s initial inquiry was incomplete,” McDonnell continued, “and has referred the matter to other authorities for investigation of the safety of the corrosion protection on the Falcon Pipeline.”
Shell says cracker plant will begin operations in 2022 - The long-awaited and highly polarizing cracker plant will be fully operational in 2022. Shell Pennsylvania Chemicals, owner-operator of the massive facility in Beaver County, made that announcement on Tuesday. That was the first time the company targeted a launch date more specific than “the early 2020s.” Plastics manufacturing will be the hallmark of a facility that is under construction along a 340-acre tract in Potter Township, located below Interstate 376 and along the banks of the Ohio River. And plastics manufacturing is why this is a polarizing endeavor, one that is opposed by a number of environmental support groups, which are concerned about potential impacts from the operation. Ethane, sourced from natural gas in the Marcellus and Utica shale plays, will be converted to polyethylene pellets, a feedstock for plastics production. This $6 to $10 billion project has been in the works for almost a decade. Shell initiated discussions about building a cracker in the Beaver Valley in mid-2012, and did not make a final decision to invest in this until June 2016. Route 18 had to be partially rerouted near the site and the property, once home to a zinc plant, required remediation. Construction on the plant itself did not begin until November 2017. An estimated 7,000 workers have toiled there over the past 3½ years, some of whom endured a monthslong shutdown beginning last spring because of COVID-19. The facility reopened later in the year. When operational, the facility will be the first cracker operation in the United States, outside of the Gulf Coast, in 20-plus years.
Environmental danger lurks beneath - Mountaineer NGL Storage plans to store 3 million barrels of highly toxic and flammable fracked-gas liquids next to, or under, the Ohio River in caverns created by three salt wells, each using 1.7 million gallons of fresh water daily.Ten percent of the resulting 30-million barrels of super-saline water would be kept for cavern pressurization. This polluted water is to be held in a huge pond below the Ohio River high water mark in Monroe County, OH, upon abandoned mines and mine entrances. With such unstable footing the pond could fail contaminating drinking water for five-million people.On the 200-acre site are also adjacent fracked wells and gas pipelines. Such infrastructure near large gas impoundments has touched off disasters elsewhere.However, even after six environmental organizations successfully sued the Ohio Department of Natural Resources for issuing the well permits without the required public notice, public comment, draft permit or a fact sheet, Mountaineer is continuing its risky plan.Meanwhile, local facilities that separate liquids from the gas reduce pressure by flaring. Along with chemicals known to cause asthma, heart damage and immune disorders, this flaring emits cancer-causing radioactivity.These risks are unjustifiable. A March, 2020, institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis report concludes that a plastics-production complex, supplied by the gas-liquids storage, is not economically feasible--even without considering clean-up and health care costs. And according to industry which reliably overstates benefits, the storage project will provide only 15 temporary jobs. Nevertheless, proponents – industry and politicians – expect that this storage hub will retrieve fracking from insolvency by supporting plastics production. If the hub indeed saves Appalachian fracking we are in deep trouble both globally and locally. Fracking is currently a principal source of atmospheric methane, an exceptionally powerful greenhouse gas. In West Virginia, this new extreme-extraction method is poisoning billions of gallons of water yearly, destroying aquifers. It is also radioactive in all parts, emits highly toxic air pollution, and is eliminating an increasingly valuable asset, our wild mountain beauty.
Pennsylvania and methane: Why cutting emissions is critical for health - Methane, a greenhouse gas 84 times more potent than carbon dioxide in the near term, heats the planet at an accelerated rate. This warming contributes to the formation of ground-level ozone, or smog, that is harmful to our environment and human health. Research by the Appalachian Mountain Club shows that hikers and outdoor enthusiasts are especially vulnerable because ozone often accumulates at high elevations such as mountain summits, where air pollution transported by wind can build up. Also, hikers breathe in air more deeply, thereby increasing their exposure. Think about it: Who among us hasn’t at some point gotten winded while hiking or biking? What was the air quality like on that day? Of even greater concern is the next generation of hikers who are being exposed to poor air quality. Pennsylvania already has the third highest rate of childhood asthma in the nation, turning an afternoon ramble on the storied Appalachian Trail just west of the Lehigh Valley into a struggle for far too many children. This is not the future they deserve. Again, methane contributes to warming and increased smog. Sites in natural gas drilling regions emit air toxics, ozone precursors, as well as climate-disrupting methane. Air pollution travels, so pollution generated in these regions can easWe believe it’s critical to protect our natural resources and ensure that the outdoors can be enjoyed by all — these spaces are centrally important to the lives of many, especially right now. Key to that, as outlined in our climate and energy policy, is the understanding that natural gas’s benefits are undermined if the industry is not appropriately regulated. Recent studies show that emissions of methane — essentially natural gas –— are consistently being under-reported to the state of Pennsylvania and actually exceed over 1.1 million tons. That’s especially concerning given that the actual emissions and leaks from oil and gas infrastructure carry double the climate impact of all the cars on Pennsylvania’s roads combined.
Survey seeks Columbia Gas disaster victim input - The state wants to hear from residents and businesspeople impacted by the Sept. 13, 2018 gas disaster in the Merrimack Valley. Feedback through an online survey is now needed so state officials can develop and implement energy efficiency programs in Lawrence, Andover and North Andover, which were directly affected by the gas disaster. "We want the residents to drive this bus as much as we can. The decisions will be rooted in the priorities of the communities," "We really see ourselves as caretakers. It's not our money. It's the Merrimack Valley's money. We want it spent the way folks in the Merrimack Valley want it spent," Last summer, Columbia Gas, the natural gas provider at the time of the disaster, reached a $56 million agreement with the state for its role in the gas explosions and fires. As a result of the fires and explosions caused by overpressurized pipelines operated by Columbia Gas, Leonel Rondon, 18, of Lawrence, was killed, three firefighters and 19 civilians were hurt, and damages are estimated at $1 billion. About 50,000 people were forced to evacuate and the severity of the damage depended on the age of appliances. Five homes were destroyed and 131 properties damaged, according to findings by the National Transportation Safety Board. The $56 million was earmarked for debt relief for gas bills for thousands of low-income gas customers, as well as to enable clean energy and energy efficient efforts in homes and buildings in the three communities.
Gas utilities seek to scale back engineering rules - — Gas companies are trying to water down proposed regulations that would require certified engineers sign off on construction work. The state Department of Utilities is considering rules to require the utilities to get a review and a stamp from a professional engineer for "complex projects" that pose a risk to public safety. The rules stem from a 2018 law signed by Gov. Charlie Baker in response to the Merrimack Valley gas disaster. But gas companies have complained that the scope of the proposed regulations will make them too costly, and that they are unnecessary. A group of utilities, including National Grid and Eversource, submitted a litany of proposed changes seeking to limit the kinds of projects that would have to be reviewed. "Routine, low-risk, non-complex work, such as the installation of service lines that do not involve two or more tie-ins, bypass of a distribution line to supply service or changes to system operating pressures, do not need a (professional engineer's) stamp," the utilities wrote to regulators. "And using resources on those types of simple tasks will be wasteful and costly without achieving any incremental public safety benefit." Tom Kiley, president and CEO of the Northeast Gas Association, noted that a lack of qualified natural gas engineers could prevent cities and towns from moving ahead with projects, which he argues would jeopardize public safety. "The current pool of qualified engineers will not be sufficient to handle the workload," he wrote to regulators. "This could lead to work delays and stoppages." Meanwhile, engineering trade groups point out the new regulations won't be a panacea in preventing future disasters.
Water utilities, state environmental regulators wary of bill that would relax oil and gas tank oversight --The West Virginia Department of Environmental Protection’s deputy secretary told state lawmakers earlier this month the department did not support a proposed bill that would relax oversight of certain oil and gas tanks located near public water intakes.Scott Mandirola explained to the House Health and Human Resources Committee that efforts to prevent drinking water contamination from oil and gas tanks would not be as effective without the tank oversight that House Bill 2598 would erase.Mandirola said 887 tanks would no longer be regulated under the Aboveground Storage Tank Act as of last month if House Bill 2598 became law, according to Department of Environmental Protection data. The DEP currently must inspect tanks within zones of critical concern at least once every three years; the state defines a zone of critical concern as consisting of a five-hour water-travel time in streams to a water intake.Current law also requires tank operators to submit spill prevention response plans, as well as registration and certified inspection of such tanks.But Mandirola estimated about 38 tanks would be inspected once a year based on current data, a scenario in which all 887 would be inspected about once every 23 years.The numbers don’t add up,” Mandirola said.The Health and Human Resources Committee disagreed.“The DEP through their testimony gave a lot of assumptions on several things,” Delegate Vernon Criss, R-Wood, said.With the full House of Delegates passing the regulatory rollback last week after the Health and Human Resources Committee signed off on the bill, the concerns about future relaxed tank oversight that Criss dismissed as assumptions are deep-seated among not only state environmental and health regulators, but water utilities. “We don’t support that,” said Todd Grinstead, executive director of the West Virginia Rural Water Association, a statewide group of nearly 300 water and wastewater systems. “Obviously, our main concern is protecting the source water for the water treatment plant, and I just think anytime you deregulate a tank of that size in a zone of critical concern, that’s a little bit of a concern for us.” The Morgantown Utility Board also disapproves of the bill. “At Morgantown Utility Board, our mission is the safeguarding of public health,” Chris Dale, the board’s communications director, wrote in an email. “Therefore, we oppose HB 2598 and any bill that loosens regulatory requirements protecting our raw water resources.”
Proposed pipeline extension into North Carolina gains new life in court— A proposed extension of the Mountain Valley Pipeline from Virginia into North Carolina has gained new life in an ongoing court battle. The Roanoke Times reported Thursday that the 4th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals threw out a decision by North Carolina's Department of Environmental Quality.The appeals court ruled that the state agency did not properly explain the reasons why it had denied a water quality certification for that portion of the natural gas pipeline. The portion is called MVP Southgate. And it would start at the main pipeline's terminus in Virginia's Pittsylvania County and run for 75 miles into North Carolina.The federal appeals court ordered North Carolina regulators to address why certification was denied outright instead of giving it conditional approval. The court also asked the regulators to address inconsistent statements about the project's impact on bodies of water. The main portion of the pipeline would run for 300 miles in West Virginia and southwest Virginia. North Carolina's denial was based in large part on uncertainty over whether the mainstem of the pipeline would ever be completed. At the time, the project was lacking three sets of federal permits following legal challenges by legal groups. But Mountain Valley has since regained two of the three permits for its main pipeline. And it says it's proceeding with plans for the extension.
North Carolina Regulators Fail to Adequately Explain MVP Southgate Denial, Court Rules - North Carolina’s Department of Environmental Quality (DEQ) did not adequately explain its decision to deny a water quality certificate for Mountain Valley Pipeline LLC’s (MVP) Southgate expansion project, a federal appeals court has ruled. The U.S. Court of Appeals for the Fourth Circuit in a ruling handed down late last week granted a petition filed by MVP seeking to vacate the DEQ’s decision last August to deny state certification for the project. MVP’s Southgate project would consist of 75 miles of 16-inch and 24-inch diameter line to extend the original 303-mile, 2 million Dth/d mainline project’s reach into North Carolina. At the time, the DEQ predicated its decision to deny the certification, required under Section 401 of the Clean Water Act, on uncertainty surrounding the mainline project’s completion given multiple legal and regulatory setbacks.However, the Fourth Circuit said the DEQ “failed to explain why it chose to deny certification instead of conditioning certification upon the Mainline Project receiving its permits.” The court ordered the state’s environmental regulator to revisit its decision and explain its rationale.Still, the ruling may provide only limited relief to MVP, which has dealt with adverse decisions from the Fourth Circuit previously. The court appeared to take issue only with the DEQ’s explanation of its decision and not the decision itself, finding that DEQ’s “denial is consistent with the state’s regulations and the Clean Water Act.”Meanwhile, MVP continues to work toward completion of its mainline, recently disclosing a new strategy to obtain waterbody crossing permits needed to wrap up construction on the oft-delayed project.MVP is designed to transport Marcellus and Utica shale gas from West Virginia into Virginia. The Southgate extension would receive gas from MVP in Virginia and transport it to new delivery points in Rockingham and Alamance counties, NC.
Gas pipeline moves to condemn Piedmont properties, but gas might never flow - The company behind a controversial proposed natural-gas pipeline has filed dozens of federal lawsuits against local landowners, even though there are serious doubts it will ever carry gas.“There’s so many ifs with this project that it should not be difficult for a federal judge in Greensboro, North Carolina, to say, ‘What’s the hurry here?’” said Chuck Lollar, an eminent-domain lawyer in Norfolk, Va., representing a number of landowners trying to keep the Mountain Valley Pipeline (MVP) from getting easements across their properties. The MVP Southgate would carry Marcellus and Utica Shale gas from the MVP terminus in Pittsylvania County, Va., to the Dominion Energy distribution system south of Graham. The collaboration of five energy companies behind the project filed more than 35 condemnation suits in the U.S. District Court for the Middle District of North Carolina in January against more than 100 landowners in North Carolina including 38 in Alamance County, according to a letter District 63 state Rep. Ricky Hurtado wrote to the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission last month.Many of those property owners would lose up to 3 acres, according to court filings. Others could lose up to 10 acres, according to Hurtado. Federal law, Lollar said, gives natural gas companies a lot of power to take land through eminent domain once they have failed to get it through negotiation or contract. And for its part, MVP Southgate says it has taken the time and effort to work with landowners. “In November 2018, Mountain Valley initiated negotiations with landowners to obtain the required rights of way,” according to a company email to the Times-News. “To date, Mountain Valley has successfully negotiated easements through mutual agreement for almost 75 percent of the affected parcels along the entire route.”Many of those landowners are fighting that condemnation using some of the same arguments pipeline opponents have brought out since the MVP project started.“(T)here presently exists access to an ample supply and capacity to meet existing and future demands in natural gas in North Carolina and Southern Virginia, and the Extension Pipeline then is not a public necessity,” according to the response filed on behalf of a Rockingham County landowner. Lollar said the rationale for the pipeline is serving the domestic market, but fracking has turned the United States from a net importer to an exporter, and the goal of these pipelines is to export liquefied natural gas not to serve American's needs.
'Lipstick on a pig.' Landowners skewer FERC -- Thursday, March 18, 2021 -- Landowners in the path of natural gas pipelines slammed the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission yesterday for its handling of their complaints.
Mountain Valley Pipeline's extension opposed by existing Transco pipeline- There’s new opposition to the Mountain Valley Pipeline, this time from a fellow natural gas pipeline..When Mountain Valley announced a 75-mile extension into North Carolina three years ago, its plan was to lay part of the buried pipeline next to the Transcontinental Pipeline, which has been in service since the 20th century.But in court documents filed Monday, attorneys for that pipeline wrote that “MVP’s proposed location is simply irresponsible.”Also known as Transco, the Oklahoma-based pipeline is fighting an attempt by Mountain Valley to use eminent domain to acquire easements on private property — some of it seized by Transco through the same controversial process years ago.In other words, Mountain Valley is attempting to take by eminent domain land that was taken by eminent domain.To build a second pipeline so close to the first “raises significant safety concerns for Transco and the general public,” according to responses to Mountain Valley’s legal actions filed in federal courts in Danville and Greensboro.Among the concerns cited: Mountain Valley’s extension, called MVP Southgate, could interfere with a cathodic protection system and possibly cause a leak to occur; restrict access needed by Transco to its pipeline; and endanger the older pipeline with heavy equipment and blasting during construction.Transco is asking federal judges in Virginia and North Carolina to deny Mountain Valley’s requests to acquire space in or along its easements.Mountain Valley has also filed eminent domain cases against the private owners of land crossed by Transco’s easements, which were acquired either voluntarily or through eminent domain decades ago.
U.S. natural gas consumption was lower in 2020 in all sectors except electric power – EIA - U.S. natural gas end-use deliveries in 2020 decreased in three out of four consuming sectors relative to 2019, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) Natural Gas Monthly. Despite mild winter weather and the economic effects of COVID-19, the second-highest annual amount of natural gas was delivered in the United States to end users in 2020, averaging 75.8 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) for the year. The highest annual amount of natural gas consumption in the United States occurred in 2019, when end-use deliveries reached 77.6 Bcf/d.The electric power sector consumed the most natural gas of any sector—31.7 Bcf/d in 2020, a 2% increase from the previous year. In 2020, natural gas prices were the lowest they had been in decades. Lower natural gas prices made natural gas more competitive in the electric power sector, especially compared with coal. Natural gas-fired electricity generation has been growing throughout the United States. Natural gas-fired generation replaced much of the lost generation from coal plant retirements in recent years, making natural gas the largest input fuel for power generation nationally. Natural gas accounted for nearly 40% of all power generation in 2020, accounting for more generation than coal and nuclear, the next two largest sources, combined.U.S. industrial consumption of natural gas decreased 2% in 2020. COVID-19-related closures and less demand reduced industrial consumption for much of the year. Industrial natural gas consumption has increased in 8 out of the past 10 years because of growth in dry natural gas production and relatively low natural gas prices.Weather patterns have been the primary drivers of residential and commercial natural gas consumption volumes in the United States. Economic patterns also affect U.S. commercial natural gas consumption. The winter months of 2020 (January–March 2020 and November–December 2020) were milder than the previous two winters in the United States, resulting in less heating demand. Natural gas consumption in the commercial sector, which includes restaurants, hotels, and schools, decreased by 11%.A small amount of end-use deliveries of natural gas go to the U.S. vehicle fuel sector, representing about 0.2% of total deliveries in 2020. In addition, a substantial volume of natural gas is consumed through producing, processing, and distributing natural gas. EIA considers these volumes as a component of total consumption, but they are not included in the end-use delivery sectors that EIA reports.
LNG Gains Prop Up April Natural Gas Futures; Cash Prices Drop - Natural gas futures on Tuesday found momentum as signs of sustained strength in liquefied natural gas (LNG) levels offset forecasts for mild weather and light heating demand. The April Nymex contract settled at $2.562/MMBtu, up 7.8 cents day/day. May gained 7.4 cents to $2.597. On Monday, the prompt month dropped 11.6 cents and fell to its lowest level since early January. Even with Tuesday’s gain, the April contract finished in the green only twice over the past 10 trading sessions. NGI’s Spot Gas National Avg., meanwhile, fell 14.5 cents to $2.410 on Tuesday. Cash prices were led lower by steep drops in the Northeast region. LNG export volumes topped 11 Bcf for the fourth time in five days, hitting 11.58 Bcf on Tuesday, according to NGI estimates. Analysts said Asian demand for U.S. supplies of the super-chilled fuel continue to prove strong, supporting a recovery to near record levels after delivery interruptions caused by the Texas deep freeze in February. “LNG feed gas has been strong,” NatGasWeather said. However, the firm said weather forecasts for the final third of March continued to show warmer temperatures and weakening demand for natural gas to run furnaces – the principal reason futures have struggled to get into positive territory this month. “The overnight data failed to trend any colder and remains quite bearish” from Sunday (March 21) through March 29, NatGasWeather said Tuesday. The data “maintained moderate demand early and late this week” but “exceptionally comfortable” temperatures “for the start of spring, with highs over most of the U.S. March 21-29 reaching the 50s to 80s.”
Weather Worry Weighs Down April Natural Gas Futures Natural gas futures dropped back into the red on Wednesday as traders mulled forecasts for mild spring weather and its dampening effect on demand along with polls that showed expectations for only a modest storage withdrawal. The April Nymex contract declined 3.4 cents day/day and settled at $2.528/MMBtu. May fell 4.2 cents to $2.555. The prompt month had gained 11.6 cents Tuesday, a rare advance in March, though analysts attributed that bounce in part to technically oversold conditions. Robust liquefied natural gas (LNG) levels – above 11 Bcf/d throughout this week, near records – also provided a boost. Still, light domestic demand, the key detriment to futures this month, re-emerged as an overriding concern Wednesday. The prompt finished in the red for the ninth time over the past 11 sessions. Weaker weather demand also kept next-day cash prices in check across much of the country. NGI’s Spot Gas National Avg. ticked up 3.0 cents to $2.440. “The pattern maintains its skew in the warmer direction rather solidly, thanks to warmer than normal conditions primarily from the Midwest to East, with the strongest anomalies coming this weekend into the first half of next week,” Bespoke Weather Services said of forecasts for the rest of this week and next. “This keeps March on pace to be quite warm…Outside of the two cold weeks in February, this warmer state has been very persistent, and we still believe this continues as we move into April,”
ANALYSIS: US natural gas storage volumes decline 11 Bcf as heating season winds down | S&P Global Platts - US natural gas storage volumes in the week ended March 12 decreased by 11 Bcf, to 1.782 Tcf, the US Energy Information Administration reported March 18, as heating season rapidly winds down and Henry Hub futures slide further. The withdrawal was weaker than the 17 Bcf draw expected by an S&P Global Platts' survey of analysts. It was also less than the 15 Bcf draw reported during the same week last year as well as the five-year average withdrawal of 59 Bcf, according to EIA data. Strong injection activity in the South Central region's salt dome facilities drove the bearish draw. South Central region salt dome inventories began February right around the five-year average, but after reporting the largest draw in the EIA's historical data, the salts began to carve out a new five-year minimum. The last two weeks have demonstrated how flexible the salt facilities are, with activity turning to a net injection of 12 Bcf for the week ended March 5, and another 21 Bcf build for the week ended March 12, according to EIA data. The US averaged 3 degrees warmer than normal for the week ended March 12. Total demand dropped more than 6 Bcf/d, with residential and commercial falling by almost 5 Bcf/d, according to S&P Global Platts Analytics. Weaker weather-driven power loads and very strong wind output pushed gas burns down nearly 1.6 Bcf/d week over week too. Storage volumes now stand 253 Bcf, or 12.4%, less than the year-ago level of 2.035 Tcf and 93 Bcf, or 5%, less than the five-year average of 1.875 Tcf. The NYMEX Henry Hub April contract slipped 4 cents to $2.48/MMBtu in trading following the release of the weekly storage report, which represented a decline of 15 cents from the week prior. Platts Analytics' supply and demand model currently forecasts a 32 Bcf withdrawal for the week ending March 19, which would measure 19 Bcf weaker than the five-year average, as the heating season enters its final weeks. Balances have tightened, with colder weather and stronger exports increasing the call on storage. Total demand has increased nearly 1.5 Bcf/d when compared to the prior week. Much of the gains were observed in LNG feedgas, which grew by 600 MMcf/d, as strong inflows into all the US facilities helped to push the weekly average north of 11 Bcf/d. An early forecast for the week ending March 26 points to an 8 Bcf pull. The first net addition to storage typically occurs in the week ending April 2. Ove the past five years, the injection season began with 1.8 Tcf in underground storage. If the current forecast for the next two storage weeks hold, the heating season will end with 1.742 Tcf in storage. The lingering impact of refinery and petrochemical outages along the US Gulf Coast from the February cold blast have delayed the recovery of industrial gas demand, contributing to a lower end-of-winter stock draw, with March storage likely to finish about 200 Bcf above the Platts Analytics' base case forecast of 1.5 Tcf. These bearish headwinds have pushed the Henry Hub summer strip down to $2.60/MMBtu from $3.00/MMBtu last month, with risk prices could fall below $2.50/MMBtu.
Absent Expectations for Heating Demand, April Natural Gas Futures Fall - Natural Gas Intelligence - Natural gas futures fell further on Thursday — the 10th decline in the last 12 trading sessions — after a bearish storage report and forecasts that showed continued expectations for moderating heating demand. The April Nymex contract settled at $2.481/MMBtu, down 4.7 cents day/day. May lost 4.4 cents to $2.511. Diminished near-term weather demand also dragged cash prices lower. NGI’s Spot Gas National Avg. shed 1.0 cent to $2.430. Both the domestic and European weather models “held moderate demand late this week, then very light demand late this weekend through next week,” NatGasWeather said Thursday. For the final week of March, the firm added, “most of the U.S. will be mild to warm with highs of 40s to 60s” over the north “and 60s to 80s across the southern U.S. for light to very light national demand.” A third straight bearish storage report from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) punctuated concerns about waning demand during spring. The agency on Thursday reported a withdrawal of 11 Bcf from natural gas storage for the week ended March 12 – shy of market expectations and well off the five-year average withdrawal of 59 Bcf for the comparable week. “It was much warmer than normal over the northern and central U.S., while slightly cool over the West Coast and Southeast” during the report period, NatGasWeather said. Polls ahead of the report estimated a withdrawal in the range of 16-22 Bcf for the week. A Bloomberg survey found a median of 18 Bcf, while the median forecast in a Reuters poll landed at a pull of 16 Bcf. The Wall Street Journal’s weekly survey produced a 22 Bcf average decrease. NGI estimated a 14 Bcf pull for the latest week. The latest report marked the third-consecutive result that was bearish relative to expectations.
April Natural Gas Futures Forge Ahead as LNG Volumes Reach Record Levels, Economy Musters Momentum - Natural gas futures on Friday edged higher as robust liquefied natural gas (LNG) levels and a brightening economic picture offset festering worry about weak weather-driven demand heading into the spring shoulder season. The April Nymex contract climbed 5.4 cents day/day and settled at $2.535/MMBtu. May rose in tandem, gaining 5.5 cents to $2.566. It marked the second time during the trading week the prompt month advanced, but only the third gain over the past 13 sessions as traders have fixated on waning heating demand and modest storage pulls. Forecasts for the week ahead called for generally mild conditions and modest demand for natural gas. The outlook remains “in a generally lower than normal demand state, heading into a time of year where demand is of course lower anyway,” Bespoke Weather Services said. As weather demand faded, NGI’s Spot Gas National Avg. fell 16.0 cents to $2.270. Asian demand for U.S. exports was strong throughout the winter and now, heading into spring, European demand is mounting as storage levels on the continent dwindled substantially in recent months. “Since Winter Storm Uri resulted in reduced outages and gas conservation for residential use in Texas, LNG demand has risen 10.0 Bcf/d in the past month,” Weissman said. “Further demand gains are possible — perhaps even eclipsing 12.0 Bcf/d if all terminals achieve maximum demonstrated demand levels at the same time. Gains in LNG feed gas and Gulf Coast industrial demand for natural gas this week may help offset declines in weather-driven demand, allowing small withdrawals to continue near term.”
US LNG feedgas demand sets another record as total approaches 12 Bcf/d | S&P Global Platts — US LNG feegas demand hit a new record March 19 as total deliveries approach 12 Bcf/d, S&P Global Platts Analytics data show. Capacity could rise come fall when Venture Global LNG's Calcasieu Pass terminal in Louisiana – the seventh major US liquefaction facility – may be ready to ship its first cargo. Platts Analytics expects full dispatch economics out of the US to continue in the months ahead, due in part to supportive summer prices on the back of a tighter than expected winter, with greater room available in European storage for injections. Shipping costs are significantly cheaper than the start of the year, outweighing short-term swings in prices and demand. The 11.8 Bcf/d in total gas deliveries to existing US LNG export terminals topped the previous record of 11.65 Bcf/d set during the morning cycle March 17. Cheniere Energy's two terminals – Sabine Pass in Louisiana and Corpus Christi Liquefaction in Texas – account for more than half of the total demand. The Platts JKM for May was assessed 14.4 cents/MMBtu lower at $6.550/MMBtu on March 19. JKM is the benchmark for spot-traded deliveries of LNG to Northeast Asia. While prices were lower day-on-day, netbacks remain high enough to incentivize robust shipments from the US. Asia Pacific freight was assessed at $30,000/day on March 18, compared with $45,000/day a month ago, and $165,000/day two months back, according to Platts data. Venture Global recently said in a US regulatory filing that it could ship its first cargo in late 2021, a year ahead of schedule. It also said the 23.4-mile TransCameron pipeline, which will connect to interstate pipelines and allow feedgas to reach the terminal, will begin service "very soon." The developments would be bullish for US LNG feedgas demand. Venture Global provided the update in a filing to the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission requesting a waiver of certain rules on buy and sell transactions that would conceivably allow it to market upstream gas producers' output directly to foreign buyers. Cheniere secured such agreements with two shale producers.
Asia became the main export destination for growing U.S. LNG exports in 2020 -- U.S. exports of liquefied natural gas (LNG) continued to grow in 2020, averaging 6.5 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) on an annual basis, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s Natural Gas Monthly. LNG exports increased 1.5 Bcf/d, or 31%, compared with 2019 levels. U.S. LNG exports were relatively high from January through May. In the summer months, they declined to record lows following record declines in international natural gas and LNG prices. By October, U.S. LNG exports started to increase again, despite brief interruptions caused by Hurricanes Laura and Delta. In November and December 2020, U.S. LNG exports reached all-time highs. U.S. LNG was exported to 38 countries, a record number, and Asia overtook Europe to become the main export destination in 2020.LNG exports to Asia increased 67% in 2020 compared with 2019, accounting for almost half, or 3.1 Bcf/d, of all U.S. LNG exports. U.S. LNG exports to China averaged 0.6 Bcf/d in 2020—after China lowered tariffs on imports of LNG from the United States from 25% to 10%—the largest increase by country. In 2019, when tariffs were at 25%, only two U.S. LNG cargoes were shipped to China. India increased imports of U.S. LNG by an average of 0.1 Bcf/d, especially in the spring and summer when LNG prices were at record lows. U.S. LNG exports to Japan grew by 0.2 Bcf/d, primarily in the fourth quarter of 2020 because of seasonal winter demand.U.S. LNG exports to Europe averaged 2.5 Bcf/d, an increase of 0.6 Bcf/d compared with 2019. Europe had been themain destination for U.S. LNG exports in 2019, accounting for 39% of U.S. LNG exports. In 2020, U.S. LNG exports to Turkey increased by 0.3 Bcf/d and to the United Kingdom, Spain, Greece, and Lithuania by 0.1 Bcf/d each. U.S. LNG exports to several countries in Latin America (Colombia, Chile, Argentina, Mexico) and the Middle East (Jordan and the United Arab Emirates) declined by a combined 0.5 Bcf/d in 2020 compared with 2019. U.S. LNG exports to Mexico declined by 0.3 Bcf/d because of COVID-19 mitigation efforts that reduced demand for natural gas. Growing U.S. exports by pipeline to Mexico also displaced more expensive LNG imports. In contrast, Brazil more than doubled its U.S. LNG imports—an average annual increase of 0.2 Bcf/d—as a result of drought conditions that limited hydroelectric power generation and increased demand for natural gas-fired power generation.
Wild Thing - Understanding the Volatile Relationship Between LNG and Global Gas Markets - To fully grasp just how much the U.S. LNG export market has changed in the past year, we have to go back about one year to March 2020, before the pandemic effects had set in. It may be hard to imagine those pre-COVID days now, so allow us to set the stage. The U.S. had just finished adding 25 MMtpa (3.34 Bcf/d) of liquefaction and export capacity over the course of 2019 and early 2020. Feedgas deliveries and LNG exports during this period were predictable for the most part, ramping up as the liquefaction trains were completed and then consistently operating near full utilization of capacity as the units were brought online and commercial contracts kicked in. So, in March of last year, feedgas demand was near what were then record highs, with little indication of volatility outside of routine maintenance events. It seemed like all LNG could do was grow — which was a story LNG developers were happy to promote.Then COVID-19 hit, decimating global demand, sending global gas prices to all-time lows and turning the economics for exporting U.S. LNG upside down for the first time since early 2016 when the first train at Cheniere Energy’s Sabine Pass terminal began exporting. We discussed the unraveling of the U.S. LNG export market that followed in a number of blogs last spring and summer, including Break It to Me Gently, Undone and LNG Interruption. The upshot is that offtakers of U.S. LNG began cancelling cargoes and, by summer, feedgas demand plummeted (dashed blue oval in Figure 1). Feedgas deliveries in July and August averaged just 3.66 Bcf/d, or about 40% of where they were in the first quarter of 2020 and just 42% of capacity at the time. Cancellations lessened by late summer as pandemic lockdowns eased, first in Asia and later Europe, and global prices improved. But just as U.S. LNG exports were poised to begin a recovery, a record-setting hurricane season wreaked havoc on the operations of Gulf Coast LNG terminals, particularly in Louisiana (see You Spin Me Round). Throughout the fall, nearly every U.S. LNG terminal faced some kind of outage, port closure, or shut-in for maintenance.
ENERGY POLICY: FERC makes major shift on pipeline CO2 emissions -- Friday, March 19, 2021 -- The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission assessed a natural gas pipeline project's contribution to climate change for the first time yesterday as it shifted policy on renewables.Recent completions of natural gas pipeline projects increase transportation capacity – EIA -From November 2020 through January 2021, approximately 4.4 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) of new natural gas pipeline capacity entered service, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) Natural Gas Pipeline Project Tracker. Four projects have recently been completed and entered service:
- Saginaw Trail Pipeline - Consumer Energy’s $610 million intrastate Saginaw Trail Pipeline entered service in late November 2020. The project replaced and expanded natural gas pipelines and infrastructure in Saginaw, Genesse, and Oakland Counties in Michigan, increasing natural gas capacity by 0.2 Bcf/d.
- Buckeye Xpress Project - Columbia Gas Transmission’s (CGT) 0.3 Bcf/d Buckeye Xpress Project began operations in December 2020. The $709 million project involved infrastructure improvements and replaced 66 miles of existing natural gas pipeline with more reliable 36-inch pipe in Ohio and West Virginia. The project increases transportation capacity out of the Appalachia Basin into CGT’s interconnection in Leach, Kentucky, and the TCO Pool in West Virginia.
- Permian Highway Pipeline - Kinder Morgan’s Permian Highway Pipeline (PHP) entered service in early January. The 430-mile pipeline brings 2.1 Bcf/d of additional natural gas capacity from the Waha Hub, located in West Texas near production activities in the Permian Basin, to Katy, Texas, near the Gulf Coast. It has additional connections to Mexico.
- Agua Blanca Expansion Project - Whitewater/MPLX’s Agua Blanca Expansion Project, which entered service in late January, connects to nearly 20 natural gas processing sites in the Delaware Basin. It transports an additional 1.8 Bcf/d of natural gas to the Waha Hub in West Texas. The project will also connect with the Whistler Pipeline, which is scheduled to be completed in the third quarter of 2021 and is expected to move 2.0 Bcf/d of natural gas from the Permian Basin to the Texas Gulf Coast.
Michigan GOP reps ask Biden to support Line 5 pipeline - — Michigan Republicans in Congress are urging President Joe Biden to oppose the closure of Line 5, warning of the potential consequences of shutting down the four-mile-long dual pipeline in the Straits of Mackinac. They recently wrote to Biden after he revoked the permit for the Keystone XL pipeline in his first week in office, citing "deep concerns" about the pressure to also shut down Enbridge Energy's Line 5 over environmental concerns. Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer has said she has revoked Enbridge's easement for Line 5 in preparation for a May shutdown, but the issue will be decided in court.The dual pipeline that runs under the Straits of Mackinac is part of a longer line that transports oil and natural gas liquids from Canada through Wisconsin and Michigan into Sarnia, Ontario. The lawmakers in their letter said closing Line 5 would cost thousands of union jobs, close refineries and reduce energy supplies, including 15% of northwest’s Ohio’s fuel supply and 43% of southeastern Michigan’s supply.Line 5 also supplies 65% of the propane used in Northern Michigan and Upper Peninsula, the representatives said.
Al Gore, Memphis activists rally against Byhalia Connection pipeline -Former Vice President Al Gore voiced his opposition to the Byhalia Connection and put Memphis elected officials on notice during a rally against the pipeline Sunday afternoon.A few hundred people were on hand for the event at Alonzo Weaver Park in South Memphis, which featured speeches from Gore, U.S. Rep. Steve Cohen, community activists and landowners that would be affected by the pipeline’s path.The proposed crude oil pipeline, a joint venture from Plains All American and Valero Energy, would span 49 miles. On its current route, it would be constructed through predominately Black communities in South Memphis and over a Memphis Light, Gas & Water wellfield drawing water from the Memphis Sands aquifer. Gore, an environmental activist and former member of Congress representing Tennessee, called the pipeline “a reckless, racist rip-off” in his speech. “They’re putting the risk on Memphis and they’ve taken the reward for themselves,” he said. “That is why it is a rip-off.”The pipeline would connect two existing pipelines, including the Diamond Pipeline that supplies the Valero Memphis Refinery with crude oil, which Plains says would make U.S. crude oil transportation more efficient. Construction is planned for later this year, with the pipeline coming into service nine months after.In a letter addressed to Memphis residents Saturday, Plains Vice President Roy Lamoreaux said the company has secured the necessary environmental permits from federal, state and local agencies to start construction. Cohen asked President Joe Biden in February to rescind a pipeline permit granted by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers.The permit can be rejected or modified if the Biden administration asks the Corps of Engineers to do so, one of “several ways to stop this,” Gore said.Gore also pointed out two pipeline-related actions local officials could take this week. A Memphis City Council will consider an ordinance against the project Tuesday. The ordinance is sponsored by Councilman Edmund Ford, Sr. and Councilman Jeff Warren. A Shelby County Commission decision to sell county land for the pipeline has been delayed until Wednesday.“They can’t use eminent domain against Shelby County,” Gore said. “They need Shelby County to say ‘Yes, sir’ to the pipeline company.”Gore said if officials side with pipeline companies, voters can let their voices be heard at the next election.
Oil drilling platform construction begins in Apalachicola River basin -A Texas-based petroleum company has begun construction of two exploratory drilling platforms on land it's leased in the Apalachicola River floodplain in rural Calhoun County, an area critical to the state's water supply.The state Department of Environmental Protection (DEP) in December 2019 granted Cholla Petroleum of Dallas six permits to dig deep wells into the upper Floridan Aquifer, the principal source of drinking water for much of northern and central Florida."Apalachicola Riverkeeper remains strongly opposed to these exploratory oil and gas wells as they pose significant ecological along with economic risk to the region," said Georgia Ackerman, the group's executive director. "We will continue to monitor the permit activities and address concerns with residents, local and state officials." While environmental groups have asked the DEP to deny the permits, the Calhoun County Commission has expressed support for the project as went through the approval pipeline. Residents of Blountstown and other areas, however, have voiced concern over the project's impact on the environment and the local economy. The exploratory drilling would punch into the Floridan aquifer, which environmentalists said could put the water supply for the Panhandle at risk of contamination. The permits do not authorize hydraulic fracking or commercial production, DEP spokeswoman Dee Ann Miller has said. A March 5 letter from Cholla Petroleum Vice President Mitch Myers to the DEP announced construction would begin on pads 1 and 3. The pads are within the Apalachicola River basin, close to flowing river waters during normal high flows, an article in the Apalachicola Riverkeeper blog said. "At those times, 95% of the Apalachicola River floodplain is connected aquatic habitat," the organization said. "Moreover, during major flood events, the drilling pads would be surrounded by flowing water."
Louisiana oil and gas industry in danger after President Biden cancels 80-million-acre oil lease sale – Louisiana officials say the state’s oil and gas industry is in danger. This comes after President Joe Biden cancelled a March oil lease sale in the Gulf of Mexico. Nearly 80 million acres of available leases would have been sold this week. The damage to Louisiana’s oil and gas companies started in January when President Biden signed an executive order banning all new oil and gas leases on public land and waters for 60 days. “Right now I think we’re still pretty much in the holding pattern. It was a 60-day ban, and he was going through relook at it, the president,” Louisiana Oil and Gas Association President Mike Moncla said. Moncla says their worst fear was that the president would extend that ban past 60 days. “Since that time, Governor Edwards has sent him a great letter letting him know exactly what that would mean to Louisiana, all of the economic and finances that come from our offshore work,” he said. He says as the 60-day ban comes closer to its end, President Biden isn’t easing restrictions. He’s enforcing new ones, cancelling the 80-million-acre Gulf of Mexico oil lease sale that was scheduled for March 17 in New Orleans. “It would kill our state. It would kill workers,” Moncla added. “It would kill jobs, and it would be a terrible thing.” Moncla says all they can do now is wait. “We’re hoping that Governor Edwards’ letter may have talked some sense into the president and that he won’t extend that 60 days,” he told News Ten. Moncla says the Gulf of Mexico supports 250,000 jobs between Louisaiana, Texas, and Mississippi and 98,000 Louisiana jobs offshore.
The future of Big Oil flaring in the Permian Basin and the climate challenge - When a raging snowstorm and frigid temperatures hit Texas last month, oil and gas behemoths responsible for producing and processing the lion share of the nation's reserves, including Exxon, Occidental and Marathon Petroleum, shut down production at oil wells and refineries across the state. For many oil producers in the Permian Basin of West Texas and New Mexico, the shutdown put upstream and downstream operations in a squeeze. Downstream, multiple refining operations flared during shutdowns, releasing air pollutants from processing units. Upstream, as oil drilling came back online, there was risk of needing to flare or halt oil production in the field until the broader energy market, including refining and utility generation, stabilized. Indeed, satellite imagery showed increased flaring at oil and gas production sites in the Permian Basin did take place, according to the Environmental Defense Fund. But at Occidental, a choice was made to shut down some operations. "There were a couple of plants that had difficulty coming back online," Occidental's CEO Vicki Hollub said during a recent CNBC Evolve event focused on energy innovation. "We could have put our production back online and just flared the gas. We chose not to do that. We left the production shut down because we didn't want to flare." The decisions made during the Texas power crisis are part of a broader debate with the oil and gas industry over flaring, the process of releasing greenhouse gas emissions through burning, which has long been a controversial topic for environmental advocates and climate policy experts. The practice, which is commonly used by oil and gas companies to relieve the pressure that builds up during oil production, is responsible for releasing CO2 and methane into the atmosphere. The flaring issue is a global one. According to the World Bank Group, global gas flares burn approximately 140 billion cubic meters of natural gas every year, emitting more than 300 million tons of CO2. Hundreds of companies, governments and oil corporations around the world have signed onto the organization's Zero Routine Flaring by 2030 Initiative, which aims to eliminate all routine flaring within the next decade. While flaring is often used in cases where there's safety concerns or maintenance issues, routine flaring means the flaring of gas associated with oil production. Zubin Bamji, program manager of the World Bank's Global Gas Flaring Reduction Partnership, said reducing gas flaring is attainable for many of these companies and is a "low-hanging fruit" among other methods to reduce emissions. Some experts say U.S. companies, specifically, need a more ambitious goal toward stopping routine flaring. The World Bank agreement focuses predominantly on reducing emissions in countries lacking the regulatory capacity and the infrastructure, but some experts say U.S. companies can accomplish the feat by 2025.
States looking to decarbonize may need to weigh their gas's origin – study | S&P Global Market Intelligence - As U.S. states look to decarbonize, where they get their natural gas may be an important part of their emissions profiles, according to a recent study. Calculating the upstream greenhouse gas intensity of each state's gas supplies, researchers at Georgia Tech's School of Civil and Environmental Engineering found that gas consumed in 2018 in the Lower 48 had methane emissions profiles that ranged from 0.9% to 3.6% of the total gas withdrawn that supplied states' consumption."It really does make a difference where your natural gas is coming from and what that production leak rate is from your basin," said Diana Burns, the study's lead author who is pursuing a master's degree in environmental engineering at Georgia Tech. "It can be high enough that it makes a big impact on greenhouse gas emissions."Kansas, Arizona and New Mexico consumed natural gas that emitted over three times more methane during production than most Northeast states in 2018, the study found. Methane, the key component of natural gas, has a shorter atmospheric life than carbon dioxide but has a much stronger warming effect. As a result, researchers and environmentalists have pointed to methane emission reductions, particularly from the oil and gas industry, as an opportunity to help mitigate climate change in the near-term.As U.S. states look to decarbonize, where they get their natural gas may be an important part of their emissions profiles, according to a recent study.Calculating the upstream greenhouse gas intensity of each state's gas supplies, researchers at Georgia Tech's School of Civil and Environmental Engineering found that gas consumed in 2018 in the Lower 48 had methane emissions profiles that ranged from 0.9% to 3.6% of the total gas withdrawn that supplied states' consumption."It really does make a difference where your natural gas is coming from and what that production leak rate is from your basin," said Diana Burns, the study's lead author who is pursuing a master's degree in environmental engineering at Georgia Tech. "It can be high enough that it makes a big impact on greenhouse gas emissions."Kansas, Arizona and New Mexico consumed natural gas that emitted over three times more methane during production than most Northeast states in 2018, the study found. Methane, the key component of natural gas, has a shorter atmospheric life than carbon dioxide but has a much stronger warming effect. As a result, researchers and environmentalists have pointed to methane emission reductions, particularly from the oil and gas industry, as an opportunity to help mitigate climate change in the near-term.
Gasoline Demand Has Peaked, Global Forecaster Says – WSJ - The world’s thirst for gasoline isn’t likely to return to pre-pandemic levels, the International Energy Agency forecast, calling a peak for the fuel that has powered personal transportation for more than a century. The Paris-based energy watchdog, in its closely followed five-year forecast, said an accelerating global shift toward electric vehicles, along with increasing fuel efficiency among gasoline-powered fleets, will more than outweigh demand growth from developing countries. The forecast comes as auto makers have pivoted recently to boost their EV fleets, after years of industry skepticism about whether car buyers would ever embrace fully electric models. General Motors Co. said it would stop selling gas-powered vehicles by 2035. Volvo Cars of Sweden has said it would be all-electric by 2030. The shift toward electric vehicles has been driven by government regulation, hefty incentives in developed countries and broader consumer acceptance of the technology thanks in part to popular models like those sold by Tesla Inc. EVs still make up a small proportion of the world’s overall fleet, and auto makers say they expect to see growing demand for gas-burning internal combustion engines, particularly in the developing world, for years to come. The coronavirus pandemic has upended global fuel consumption, raising questions about whether it will change the world’s energy mix more generally in the years ahead. Energy watchers have long debated the timing of “peak oil,” a point at which demand for crude will start to wane. Amid the demand-crushing pandemic that started last year, some forecasters, including those at the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, have said that day might have already dawned in the developed world. The IEA said Wednesday that it foresees global crude demand recovering, reaching as much as 104 million barrels a day by 2026, up about 4% from 2019 levels, thanks to the developing world. Economic powerhouses such as China, India and other Asian countries would account for 90% of the net increase in oil demand over the coming five years, the agency said. But for the first time, the agency said it no longer forecasts a complete rebound in demand for gasoline—the product that for years underpinned the world’s thirst for crude. “We do not think gasoline consumption will come back to 2019 levels again,” said IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol. Global jet fuel demand, meanwhile, would fully return but at a slow pace and not before 2024, the agency said. U.S. air travel has been risingamid stabilizing or falling Covid-19 cases in many parts of the country and an accelerated vaccination drive. The Transportation Security Administration, which tracks how many U.S. travelers pass through airport security checkpoints, recorded 1.4 million passengers on Friday. That marked a one-year high but still less than half comparable numbers in 2019.
U.S. crude oil production fell by 8% in 2020, the largest annual decrease on record – EIA -- U.S. crude oil production averaged 11.3 million barrels per day (b/d) in 2020, down 935,000 b/d (8%) from the record annual average high of 12.2 million b/d in 2019. The 2020 decrease in production was the largest annual decline in the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s records. The production decline resulted from reduceddrilling activity related to low oil prices in 2020.In January 2020, U.S. crude oil production reached a peak of 12.8 million b/d. In March 2020, crude oil prices decreased because of the sudden drop in petroleum demand that resulted from the global response to the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic. The declining prices led crude oil operators to shut in wells and limit the number of wells brought online, lowering the output for the major oil-producing regions. In May, U.S. crude oil production reached its lowest average monthly volume for the year at 10.0 million b/d.In 2020, more crude oil was produced in Texas than in any other state or region of the United States, accounting for 43% of the national total. Crude oil production in Texas averaged 4.87 million b/d in 2020, a decrease of 205,000 b/d (4%) from the record high of 5.07 million b/d set in 2019.The Federal Offshore Gulf of Mexico saw the largest decrease in crude oil production, falling by 245,000 b/d (13%) to an annual average of 1.65 million b/d in 2020. Several hurricanes and tropical storms struck the Gulf of Mexico last year, causing operators to evacuate platforms and shut in production. North Dakota had the second-largest decrease at 242,000 b/d (17%) to an annual average of 1.18 million b/d. Oklahoma had the largest percentage decrease at 19%, falling to an annual average of 469,000 b/d. The largest statewide increase in crude oil production in 2020 was in New Mexico, where it increased by 133,000 b/d (15%) to a record annual average high of 1.04 million b/d. The growth in New Mexico came from the Permian Basin, which spans parts of western Texas and eastern New Mexico.
US oil, gas rig count up 10 on week to 502, despite Permian slowdown: Enverus -- The US oil and gas rig count climbed 10 to 502 in the week ended March 17, Enverus data showed, reaching a fresh 11-month high despite a pullback in Permian drilling activity. Stay up to date with the latest commodity content. Sign up for our free daily Commodities Bulletin. Sign Up The number of rigs chasing mostly oil was up four week on week to 375, the highest since the week-ended April 15, while the gas-focused rig count was up six to 127, the highest since the week-ended April 8. The increase puts the total US rig count up 98, or 23%, since the start of 2021, and up 223, or nearly 80%, from its early July nadir. Rig counts were higher across all of the major named basins outside of the Permian, which shed two rigs leaving a total of 224, and in the Utica shale, where rig counts were flat at 11. It was the first pullback in Permian drilling since the week ended Feb. 17, when severe freezing winter weather paralyzed oil field operations across most of Texas. Outside of the one-week dip, Permian rig counts have been steadily higher this year, rising 42, or 23%, since the week ended Dec. 30. Operators added a single rig each in the oil-focused Eagle Ford (37 rigs), SCOOP-STACK (18), Denver-Julesburg (16), and Bakken (15) basins. On the gas side, Haynesville basin rig counts climbed one to 47, and operators in the Marcellus play added a single rig for a total 33. Prices were little changed week on week, with oil slightly higher and gas slightly lower. For oil, WTI averaged $65.28/b for the week ended March 17, up 60 cents; WTI Midland averaged $65.95/b, up 38 cents; and the Bakken Composite averaged $65.56/b, up 4 cents. For gas, Henry Hub averaged $2.55/MMBtu, down 8 cents on week; and Dominion South averaged $2.07/MMBtu, down 16 cents. While US drilling activity has closely mirrored a sharp run-up in crude prices since the end of 2020, capital discipline is likely to present headwinds to further increases, analysts said. "There's no desire to increase activities currently, and even when oil markets balance, response is likely to be muted," "If the current price deck holds, companies will have ample flexibility, and we would look for incremental capital return" to shareholders."
Shale Producers Find Themselves in Unusual Position -- Shale’s newfound prudence after last year’s crash is putting producers in the unusual situation of reducing oil output just as prices surge. More focused than ever on keeping spending in check, shale drillers haven’t been boring new wells fast enough to keep up with output declines in older ones. So, next month, their combined production will edge lower by 47,000 barrels a day to about 7.46 million, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration. That’s despite an oil price jump of more than 30% this year. The impact of the coronavirus on energy consumption was so bad last year that several heavily indebted shale producers went under after years of being bankrolled by Wall Street. Now, producers don’t seem to be in a rush to start another boom, and their backers aren’t either. That’s good news for Saudi Arabia, which has sought to bring prices up without unleashing a new supply glut. “We are still observing only about 50% of last year’s rig count activity,” EIA analyst Jozef Lieskovsky said by email. “With such a low rig count, even with the increased productivity, production declines in all regions are possible.” The number of rigs drilling for oil in the U.S. started plunging when the pandemic hit, reaching just 172 in August, down from 683 late in March 2020, according to Baker Hughes data. They are now at little more than 300. In theory, producers also have the option of fracking wells that have been drilled but left uncompleted, known as DUCs. But that wouldn’t help them conserve much capital because the process of blasting a mixture of water, chemicals and sand into the ground to unleash oil and gas from shale rock is the most expensive part of a well’s development. DUCs also require some work before they can be fracked if they’ve been lying idle for too long. Output will be slightly lower in nearly all key shale regions except for the Permian Basin of West Texas and New Mexico, which is estimated to produce a meager 11,000 barrels a day more, the EIA said in its Drilling Productivity Report.
JP Morgan: U.S. Shale Production Set To Climb -Current oil prices are high enough to warrant increased U.S. shale activity in the second half of the year if prices hold around these levels, according to JP Morgan.“At current prices, most U.S. onshore operators are economic, leaving a vast group of operators, from large public companies to private players, in good position to ramp up activity in 2H21 and build solid momentum for higher volumes in 2022,” analysts at JP Morgan said in a weekly note as carried by Reuters.Early on Friday, the spot U.S. benchmark WTI Crude was trading at over $65 per barrel, at $65.76 as of 7 a.m. ET.Following the largest ever annual collapse in U.S. crude oil production in 2020, the U.S. shale patch is not rushing to ramp up production in 2021, even though oil prices have rallied by 30 percent this year. U.S. producers, especially large listed companies, are expected to stick to capital discipline and reward shareholders rather than ramp up production. However, smaller privately held oil firms are benefiting from higher oil prices as their primary way of generating cash is increased production. This could spoil the oil management policy of the OPEC+ group again. Most analysts believe that most public companies will stick to discipline. OPEC+ also seems to have gambled on expectations that U.S. shale will look at higher profits instead of production this time - unlike in any of the previous oil price spikes in recent years - when it decided not to raise production from April, except for small increases for Russia and Kazakhstan.In view of the recent high prices, JP Morgan now expects U.S. oil production to average 11.36 million bpd in 2021, slightly up from 11.32 million bpd last year. The EIA still sees U.S. crude oil production this year slightly down from last year, at 11.1 million bpd. However, in its latest Short-Term Energy Outlook published this week, EIA expects U.S. production in 2022 at 12.0 million bpd, up by 500,000 bpd compared to the February STEO forecast because of higher expected crude oil prices.
Oil Sector Revival Has Producers Eyeing Boom Times --If you thought coronavirus had hobbled the oil industry for good, think again. Just a year after a Saudi-Russian price war and the coronavirus pandemic triggered the worst oil crash in decades, a stunning reversal is under way. “The next five years may be the best five years we’ve ever had for hydrocarbon investing,” Wil VanLoh, head of Quantum Energy Partners, one of the US oil patch’s biggest private investors, told me recently. Yet despite a glut so great it briefly forced oil prices below zero, consumption still averaged 91m barrels a day — more than the world consumed daily in 2012. Morgan Stanley thinks demand will be back above 100m barrels later next year (2022).. Goldman Sachs expects that marker to be passed before 2021 is out. Investors are suddenly flocking to previously out-of-fashion companies that promise to meet the world’s renewed hunger for crude. The revival in the industry’s fortunes is especially obvious in the US shale patch, the most dynamic corner of the global oil business. Famous for ruinous debt and high spending in pursuit of breakneck production growth, the shale business is suddenly — and surprisingly — profitable. The market likes operators’ pledges to spend cash flows on dividends, not rigs; debt repayment, not private jets. Shares in some shale companies are up by about 200 per cent since early November. For some old crude market hands, all of this is proof that oil remains a cyclical business.
Privately-held shale drillers poised to create headaches for OPEC --The battered and bruised U.S. shale industry is finding a resurgence in one of the most unlikely places: private operators most investors have never heard of. Take the case of little known, closely held DoublePoint Energy. It’s now running more rigs in the Permian Basin than giant Chevron Corp. Meanwhile, family-owned Mewbourne Oil Co. has about the same number of rigs as Exxon Mobil Corp. That’s emblematic of what’s happening across the industry. Once minor players, private drillers held half the share of the horizontal rig count as of December. It’s the first time in the modern shale era that they have risen to the level of the supermajors. After years of unwieldy supply growth, the big guys are finally starting to show restraint. They’ve dialed back drilling after the pandemic sent oil prices into collapse. Now that the market is on the rise again, the majors and publicly-traded counterparts are mostly sticking to the mantra of discipline, all but ending shale’s decade-long assault on OPEC for market share. But private operators’ ambitious growth plans present the cartel with a wild card as prices rebound and it attempts to lift its own production. With oil prices up close to 30% in the past two months, traders and analysts are watching shale producers closely for signs that they’re opening the spigots. Most big publicly traded explorers are listening to investors’ pleas and planning to keep production flat. But the contrast in output strategy from the private companies underscores just how anarchic the oil market is. America’s oil production currently stands at about 9.7 million barrels a day, about 3 million barrels a day less than a year ago before prices collapsed, according to the Department of Energy. That means the U.S. lost production equivalent to Iran and Angola combined, or two Gulf of Mexicos, in just 12 months. The question is where does it go from here. A Bloomberg survey of major forecasters including Enverus and Rystad Energy showed a variance of 700,000 barrels a day, more than half of Nigeria’s production, indicating how much uncertainty surrounds large, private producers whose plans are mostly shielded from public view. If private drillers keep expanding at their current pace, it could eventually mean that U.S. production ends up on the higher end of analyst forecasts. And that, of course, could weigh on prices. “In a few months, a lot of private operators will return in an aggressive manner to add wells and rigs because they are able to realize returns faster as oil prices are improving,” . The private drillers are on pace to spend $3 billion in just the first three months of this year, doubling from their lowest levels of 2020,
Angry Okla. farmers fight pipeline builder — and FERC - E&E News -- Cody McComas says he still doesn't know why a pipeline crew with a dump truck stole $40,000 worth of topsoil from his central Oklahoma farm. But he says it's only one of the indignities he's suffered at the hands of Cheniere Energy Inc. since it started laying the Midship pipeline through his property. He says he's lost two years of crops with no end in sight and tried in vain to get the company to fix the damage done to his land — and he hasn't been paid a dime."This is what we do for a living. We're proud of this land," said McComas, who grows alfalfa and corn near Minco, Okla. "They laugh about it, like it's no big deal."McComas is not alone. Dozens of other Oklahoma landowners say Cheniere and its construction contractor cut a swath of destruction through their farms and still haven't repaired the damage a year after the company started pumping natural gas. They say their fields are flooded, vital topsoil is gone and chunks of construction debris are strewn across the pipeline's 200-mile path.The conflict has turned Cheniere's Midship project into one of the most bitter battles in the country's pipeline debate, with lawsuits, threats of violence, accusations of extortion and even sabotage.It's a prime example, critics say, of the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission's bureaucratic indifference to the people in the path of the energy projects it approves."We've tried to get FERC in to enforce something," McComas said. "It's been a lost cause." Cheniere's primary business is taking natural gas produced in the U.S. and exporting it to other countries (Energywire, May 30, 2019). Midship doesn't connect to either of Cheniere's terminals on the East Coast, but some of the gas is committed to Cheniere for export. The company has been a standard-bearer for gas exports, which former President Trump made a key element of his "energy dominance" agenda. Carl Icahn, a Trump confidant who briefly served in the Trump White House as a special adviser, is a major shareholder. The company has also hired several Obama administration alumni. After FERC approves a pipeline route, the company building it can use eminent domain to take people's land for the project, long before paying them. Pipeline builders are supposed to negotiate first before going to court to condemn land. But farmers along the Midship line say Cheniere swiftly filed for condemnation after making lowball offers. The offers were sometimes less than the value of the crops they'd lose, they said, or fractions of what other companies had paid for burying other pipelines on their land. The landowners eventually get their property back, with conditions about what can be done with it. But during construction, the pipeline controls the roughly 100-foot "right-of-way" easement where the pipeline is placed. Sometimes landowners aren't allowed to set foot on their own land during the process. McComas said crews repeatedly threatened to call the sheriff when he or his family members got close to the easement. Landowners along the Midship line also said Cheniere wouldn't listen to their concerns over where the pipeline was being built. Steve Barrington, whose family runs a farming operation near Bradley, said he warned company representatives they were putting the line through a wet area on his land with a high-water table that would cause problems. But he was ignored and said his concerns were treated dismissively. "They wouldn't talk to us," he said. "We're just a bunch of dumb redneck farmers." Now he says it will cost more than $5 million to fix the damage to his farm.
Spurred by pipeline protests, Kansas could deter them further Protests over pipelines in the past years, such as those over the Dakota Access Pipeline in North Dakota in 2016 or ongoing ones against the Line 3 pipeline in Minnesota, have driven the fossil fuel industry into action. The American Fuel and Petrochemicals Manufacturers is pushing a bill beefing up criminal penalties for trespassing or damaging infrastructure facilities. Senate Bill 172 is more than halfway to becoming law, having had its hearing in the Kansas House on Wednesday. "There are proper ways in our society to protest things," said Sen. Mike Thompson, R-Shawnee, who chairs the committee sponsoring the bill. "Peacefully protesting, not damaging property, like we've seen with many of the organized activities in the Pacific Northwest, that damaged billions of dollars of infrastructure and people's businesses." In short, it is meant to send a clear message to supposedly violent climate protesters, despite conflicting reports that police and private security officers initiated some of the past aggression. "As we well know, that critical infrastructure affects us all," Thompson said. "We had the arctic outbreak a week or so ago, and we were all impacted by the loss of electricity." Senate Bill 172 would replace the crime of tampering with a pipeline with four different crimes ― trespassing, aggravated trespassing, criminal damage and aggravated criminal damage to a critical infrastructure facility. Such facilities include those associated with petroleum, electric, chemical, water, natural gas, broadband, railroads, trucking, steel or oil. Trespassing a facility would be a Class A nonperson misdemeanor, while aggravated trespassing (with the intent to damage or tamper) would be a severity level 7 nonperson felony. Criminal damage would be a severity level 6 nonperson felony, and aggravated damage (with the intent to impede operations) is level 5. Opponents worried the penalties were too harsh. "What about those teenagers, the clever teen that goes up and writes a 'V' and 'I' on the Agra water tower?" said Zack Pistora, of the Kansas Sierra Club. "Should they be getting over a year, and a felony on their record, jail time?" Others said the bill was a moot political point as there hasn't been a significant pipeline protest in the state. If anything, they said, it could chill free speech and deter even peaceful environmental protests. The bill "is harmful because it strips us of our ability to let you know when something is not right. You're tying our hands and how we can communicate with you about injustices,"
Senate Confirms Fracing Foe as Interior Secretary -- The Senate narrowly confirmed Deb Haaland as Interior secretary on Monday, clearing the way for the lawmaker from New Mexico to become the first Native American to serve in any president’s cabinet. “It is long, long, long past time that this country had a Native American leading the Interior Department,” said Senator Ron Wyden, a Democrat from Oregon, said before the vote. “We have got a nominee who is qualified. She is fair. She is going to concentrate on bringing people together, and she is going to make history.” Haaland, a member of the Laguna Pueblo tribe west of Albuquerque, New Mexico, is expected to resign her seat in the House, where she has represented New Mexico since 2019. The Senate’s 51-40 vote underscored deep opposition from Republicans who worry Haaland’s criticism of fossil fuels means she will discourage oil development across hundreds of millions of acres of federal land under the Interior Department’s control. President Joe Biden already ordered a pause in the sale of drilling rights across federal lands and waters. “Based on her own public statements and actions, Congresswoman Haaland is more radical in her positions than President Biden,” said Senator Cynthia Lummis, a Republican from Wyoming, said before the vote. “As secretary, she will continue the job-killing, anti-energy attack on Wyoming’s livelihood that President Biden started during his first week in office.” Senate Democrats said Haaland has a special relationship with the land that will aid her leadership of the Interior Department charged with managing so much of it. The agency oversees grazing, hunting, recreation, energy development and other activities on about a fifth of U.S. land, some 700 million subsurface acres of minerals and 2.5 billion acres of the outer continental shelf. The Interior Department also holds trust title to 56 million acres for tribal nations, and its Bureau of Indian Affairs serves as the prime U.S. government contact for 578 federally recognized tribes. Oil production on federal lands in Haaland’s home state of New Mexico once paid for a free-college program and provides more than a third of the state’s budget. “Congresswoman Haaland knows firsthand how the decisions that we make here in Washington, and particularly in the Interior Department, affect communities across the country, especially in tribal communities and rural Western states,” said Senator Martin Heinrich, a Democrat from New Mexico, said before the vote. “She is the leader that we need at Interior to take on the important work of restoring our landscapes, opening up new outdoor recreation opportunities for all Americans and putting our public lands to work in confronting the climate crisis.” In the House, Haaland has advocated greater consultation with tribes, conservation of federal lands and federal-tribal collaboration to prevent violent crimes. She worked to block drilling near the sandstone mesas and ruins of northwest New Mexico’s Greater Chaco region. Haaland also has been an outspoken critic of fracking and was an original cosponsor of the Green New Deal resolution outlining a vision for rapidly decarbonizing the U.S. economy.
Career staff to resume U.S. federal drilling permit approvals - Interior Dept (Reuters) - The Biden administration on Monday said U.S. Bureau of Land Management (BLM) office staff would resume processing oil and gas drilling permits later this week following a two-month period when those approvals were limited to senior officials in Washington. In an emailed statement, the Interior Department said BLM officials would process applications for permits “and related sundry activities on valid, existing leases in a timely manner.” The department, which oversees BLM, also said it would begin providing monthly updates on pending and approved drilling permits on federal lands in an effort to improve transparency for the industry and the public. On its first day in office, the administration of President Joe Biden stripped Interior Department agencies and bureaus of their authority to issue drilling permits. The order, which expires on March 21, appeared to be a first step toward delivering on Biden’s campaign pledge to ban new leasing on federal acreage, though permits have continued to be processed in Washington. Later in January, the administration paused new oil and gas leases, triggering criticism from the oil industry and Republican lawmakers. The Interior Department will launch a formal review of the program on March 25 with a public forum.
As spring thaws the Minnesota ice, a new pipeline battle fires up - In the north woods of Minnesota, the mighty Mississippi River looks like a frozen creek. And if you stroll one particular spot near Palisade, you'll find giant pipe, heavy machines and competing signs. A few read "No trespassing" in block letters. The rest say "Water is life" and "Stop Line 3" in hand-painted colors. It is the latest front in the pipeline wars. Originally built in the 1960s, the Enbridge Line 3 crude oil pipeline snakes 1,097 miles from the tar sands of Canada to Superior, Wisconsin. Of the roughly 340 miles through Minnesota, the replacement pipeline includes new sections and added capacity and is cutting through some of the most pristine woods and wetlands in North America. In little camps along the way, a small-but-growing group of protesters is out to stop them, driven by ancient prophesy and the promises of a new President.When Joe Biden killed plans for the Keystone XL pipeline within hours of taking the oath, many Native American tribe members and environmentalists saw it as validation for all the cold nights spent protesting another pipeline at Standing Rock. Though they failed to stop the oil now flowing through the Dakota Access Pipeline, maybe this was a sign Biden would take their side in the David versus Goliath fight to stop Line 3. And maybe people would finally heed an ancient warning known as The Seven Fires Prophecy.In Ojibwe tribal lore, an environmental moment of reckoning was predicted in the time of the Seventh Fire, when "the light skinned race will be given a choice between two roads," one green and lush, the other black and charred. A wrong choice, it was warned, would "cause much suffering and death to all the Earth's people." The Ojibwe are of the largest groups of Native Americans north of Mexico with tribal members stretching from present-day Ontario in eastern Canada all the way into Montana.As a half-dozen female tribal elders sing and pray alongside the frozen Mississippi, it's obvious that for some bands, the fight is sacred and eternal. The question is how many will join them in the face of tougher legal challenges, increased pressure from police and the limits of the pandemic. "There have been over 130 people arrested so far in just the last few months," tribal attorney and activist Tara Houska told CNN. Some are physically arrested at construction sites, but police also watch social media feeds to identify trespassing protesters and send summons in the mail. Before we walked the frozen river, Houska attended her hearing with a judge over Zoom and was ordered to post $6,000 bail. "They seem to think that it's going to deter us from protecting the land. They are fundamentally missing the point of what water protectors are doing, which is willing to put ourselves our freedom, our bodies, our personal comfort on the line for something greater than ourselves," Houska said.
Jane Fonda Arrives in Minnesota to Back Line 3 Opponents --A "freshly vaccinated" Jane Fonda arrived in Minnesota on Sunday to join the ongoing protests against Canadian oil giant Enbridge's Line 3 pipeline, a multibillion-dollar tar sands project that scientists and activists have called an "urgent threat" to local waters and the global climate. In a Facebook post announcing her arrival in Northern Minnesota, the 83-year-old activist and Oscar-winning actress said the Ojibwe Water Protectors "have invited me to join them in the fight to stop Line 3.""We were driving down the highway and pulled over to see the impacts of the nearly one million barrels of tar sands per day being brought from Alberta, Canada to Superior, Wisconsin by Enbridge, a Canadian pipeline company responsible for the largest inland oil spill in the U.S.," she continued.Fonda—an active participant in social justice causes for decades, which includes being arrested on the steps of the U.S. Capitol building in October 2019 after launching the #FireDrillFriday campaign to pressure federal lawmakers to address the climate crisis—noted that "Enbridge seeks to build a new pipeline corridor through untouched wetlands and the treaty territory of Anishinaabe peoples, through the Mississippi River headwaters to the shore of Lake Superior.""We will be at the rivers that are being threatened by Line 3 over the next few days," she said, "gathering to pray and send a message to Enbridge that water is life." In an accompanying video, Fonda added that "we're here to try to stop it."
PUBLIC LANDS: BLM drilling data may shift Biden oil politics -- Tuesday, March 16, 2021 -- The Interior Department said yesterday it will publish monthly data on drilling permits for federal lands, enlightening a debate over whether the Biden administration's energy policies are hindering the oil industry.
Diesel from 485-gallon overfill at Town Pump rising to surface in Butte wetlands -- Walking his dog along the Blacktail Creek trail near the northeast corner of Harrison Avenue and I-90 in Butte on Sunday, Montana Tech professor David Hutchins noticed something wasn’t right: Absorbent pads and booms had been placed at a storm drain leading into Blacktail Creek. Walking under I-90 to the wetlands on the other side, Hutchins observed great plumes of rainbow-colored sheen bubbling to the surface and spreading through the cattails, and the whole area reeked of diesel fuel. “The smell was almost overwhelming to where I was almost concerned it might be flammable,” Hutchins said. What he saw and smelled was the result of a 485-gallon diesel fill overflow at Town Pump No. 4 at 3700 Harrison Ave., which took place five weeks ago on Jan. 30, and was never reported to the general public. An unknown amount of that diesel made its way into Blacktail Creek on Feb. 3. According to Bill McGladdery, director of corporate communications for Town Pump, the overflow occurred when Butte-based Red Mountain Truck Lines Inc. overfilled an underground storage tank at the station. The company immediately began cleanup with its personnel and notified the Montana Department of Environmental Quality an hour later. The Montana Department of Transportation, Montana Fish, Wildlife and Parks and Butte-Silver Bow County were notified within a couple days, McGladdery said. Disaster and Emergency Services was also contacted, and after petroleum was discovered in Blacktail Creek, the National Response Center was notified as well. The National Response Center report states the incident occurred “due to operator error.”
Soil excavation begins at Town Pump after 485-gallon diesel spill in January - With permission from the Montana Department of Environmental Quality, crews have begun excavating diesel-contaminated soil at the Town Pump at Harrison and Elizabeth Warren avenues in Butte. Red Mountain Truck Lines overfilled an underground storage tank at the Town Pump on Jan. 30, causing 485 gallons of diesel to spill, according to Bill McGladdery, director of corporate communications for Town Pump. Some of the diesel ran down into the gutter and made its way to the engineered stormwater retention wetlands on the southeast side of Harrison Ave and I-90. An unknown amount of diesel crossed under the highway and entered Blacktail Creek on only Feb. 3, McGladdery said. On Friday, Hunter Brothers Construction personnel and Water & Environmental Technologies engineers were hard at work excavating soil contaminated with diesel at the site. Bill Henne, the project lead for WET, said DEQ issued the permit to excavate the source area at the Town Pump Thursday. Dirt samples were analyzed as they were removed, the depth increasing until it meets DEQ standards of 50 parts per million diesel. Samples must be taken for every 625 square feet, Henne said. Henne on Friday said excavation of the source area was expected to continue at least until Monday, and all contaminated dirt must remain in a repository on site.Town Pump recently acquired a permit for use of a camera to evaluate diesel residue in the stormwater main along Harrison Avenue from Elizabeth Warren Avenue to I-90. The camera is mobile, moving up to 1,000 feet at a time before being retrieved from manholes, projecting video back to the crew along the way. “It's kind of like a colonoscopy,” McGladdery said. Meanwhile, down at the Montana Department of Transportation’s engineered wetlands near the highway, WET continues to monitor the site twice daily, and a heavy sheen and strong diesel smell remains among the cattails. On Thursday, DEQ requested Town Pump put up signs to alert the public, and there are now seven signs reading “Restricted Area.”
Keystone XL pipeline: Texas and Montana lead coalition of states suing Biden administration over pipeline - Twenty-one states, led by Texas and Montana, filed suit on Wednesday against President Joe Biden's decision to revoke the permit for the Keystone XL pipeline -- an effort by Republican state attorneys general to combat the new administration's efforts to address climate change. Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton and Montana Attorney General Austin Knudsen argued in the complaint that Congress, not Biden, has the authority to change the policy. Biden's order "cites no statutory or other authorization permitting the President to change energy policy as set by Congress in this manner," Paxton and Knudsen wrote in the complaint, arguing that "the President lacks the power to enact his 'ambitious plan' to reshape the economy in defiance of Congress's unwillingness to do so." Bringing the suit on "behalf of many of the States through which Keystone XL runs," they're joined by the attorneys general of Alabama, Arizona, Arkansas, Georgia, Kansas, Kentucky, Indiana, Louisiana, Mississippi, Missouri, Nebraska, North Dakota, Ohio, Oklahoma, South Carolina, South Dakota, Utah, West Virginia and Wyoming in challenging Biden's move. Biden revoked the permit for the pipeline on his first day in office through executive action as part of a series of moves aimed at combating climate change, The oil industry and Republicans quickly condemned Biden's decision in January to rescind the permit for the controversial pipeline. The move resulted in the layoff of "thousands of union workers," according to TC Energy, the Canadian company behind the Keystone pipeline. Climate and energy experts, meanwhile, told CNN at the time that the project was inconsistent with both the Biden administration's climate goals and with American energy needs in light of existing oil supply. Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm, the former governor of Michigan, has said that the Energy Department created a jobs office that will work "hand in glove" with the department's fossil fuels officials to make sure "we leave no worker behind."
21 State Attorneys General Chose a Texas Federal Court to File Suit Against the Biden Administration Regarding Keystone XL Pipeline – RedState - Today, Texas, joined by 20 other states (Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, Indiana, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, North Dakota, Ohio, Oklahoma, South Carolina, South Dakota, Utah, and Wyoming), sued the Biden Administration over the cancellation of the permit for the Keystone XL pipeline project, which was done via an Executive Order on Biden’s first day in office. I wrote about the Biden Administration’s plan to take that step in this article. Texas has gone back to the well once again in choosing the Southern District of Texas as the locale for its action over the Keystone XL pipeline, but this time it chose the Galveston Division.The Galveston Division has one full-time federal District Court Judge — Judge Jeffrey Brown, appointed by ……. President Trump.See how this works?Apparently, the Texas Attorney General’s Office was paying attention when left-wing interest groups and the Democrat Party were filing suits in Washington, Oregon, California, and New York to challenge Trump administration policies. The complaint is 46 pages long, and I’ll have to save for another day a deep-dive into the nature of the claims raised. Frankly, I have been pondering over writing an article making the case that the pipeline project is not actually “all dead,” but only “mostly dead”, and that there’s a big difference between the two. I’ll save that for another time, too.
Exxon Says Activist’s Plan Is Threat to Cash Flow, Dividend -- Exxon Mobil Corp. said proposals put forth by an activist investor pushing for changes at the oil giant threaten future cash flows and the sustainability of its dividend. Exxon said in a letter to shareholders Tuesday that Engine No. 1’s approach ignores the role oil and natural gas will play in the future, and the leadership role the oil giant intends to take in reducing emissions through the development of lower-carbon technologies. “To put it bluntly, we have a plan that will grow earnings and cash flow, pay and grow the dividend, fund future growth and position the company to have a meaningful role in the energy transition. Engine No. 1 does not, ” Chief Executive Officer Darren Woods and lead director Kenneth Frazier said in the letter. Woods has sought to reposition Exxon as a reliable cash cow in the wake of Covid-19 by aggressively cutting capital spending, delaying growth plans and slashing the company’s workforce. The simple goal is to ensure the sustainability of the S&P 500 Index’s third-largest dividend, worth $15 billion a year. The stock’s yield rose to the highest on record last year as the drop in oil prices threatened the payout but it has since reversed course, now standing at around 5.9%. Woods and Frazier accused Engine No. 1 of making false statements and said its board candidates lacked the experience or knowledge to help lead Exxon through what they called “one of the most complex and challenging transitions the world has ever faced.” The pair encouraged investors to vote for Exxon’s slate, which includes activist investor Jeff Ubben and two other new directors. The newly-formed Engine No. 1 disclosed a stake in Exxon in December and has nominated four candidates for the board. The hedge fund, whose stake amounts to about 0.02% of Exxon’s shares, has criticized the company for poor returns and poor environmental stewardship. It has called on Exxon to set more aggressive targets of being net-zero greenhouse-gas emissions by 2050, and said its nominees will help guide that transition.
Oil firms knew decades ago fossil fuels posed grave health risks, files reveal -The oil industry knew at least 50 years ago that air pollution from burning fossil fuels posed serious risks to human health, only to spend decades aggressively lobbying against clean air regulations, a trove of internal documents seen by the Guardian reveal.The documents, which include internal memos and reports, show the industry was long aware that it created large amounts of air pollution, that pollutants could lodge deep in the lungs and be “real villains in health effects”, and even that its own workers may be experiencing birth defects among their children. But these concerns did little to stop oil and gas companies, and their proxies, spreading doubt about the growing body of science linking the burning of fossil fuels to an array of health problems that kill millions of people around the world each year. Echoing the fossil-fuel industry’s history of undermining of climate science, oil and gas interests released a torrent of material aimed at raising uncertainty over the harm caused by air pollution and used this to deter US lawmakers from placing further limits on pollutants.In internal memos and reports, Imperial Oil, an Exxon subsidiary,acknowledged in 1967 the petroleum industry was a “major contributor to many of the key forms of pollution” and took surveys of “mothers who worried about possible smog effects”. In an internal technical report in 1968, Shell went further, warning that air pollution “may, in extreme situations, be deleterious to health” and acknowledging the oil industry “reluctantly” must accept that cars “are by far the greatest sources of air pollution”. The report states that sulphur dioxide, given off by the burning of oil, can cause “difficulty in breathing” while nitrogen dioxide, also given off by vehicles and power plants, can cause lung damage and that “there will be a clamor to reduce [nitrogen dioxide] emissions, probably based on suspected long-term chronic effects”. Small particles given off by fossil fuels, meanwhile, are the “real villains in health effects”, the Shell report admits, as they can bring toxins, including carcinogens, “deep into the lungs which would otherwise be removed in the throat.” These microscopic specks of soot and liquid, known as particulate matter, are expelled when fuels are burned and inhaled by people. In 1971, Esso, a forerunner to Exxon, sampled particles in New York City and found, for the first time, the air was rife with tiny fragments of aluminium, magnesium and other metals. Esso scientists noted that gases from industrial smokestacks were “hot, dirty and contain high concentrations of pollutants” and suggested further testing was needed for symptoms including “eye irritation, excess coughing, or bronchial effects”.
New Chapter 11 Filing - Nine Point Energy Holdings, Inc. | Bankruptcy & Restructuring Law -- On March 15, 2021, Nine Point Energy Holdings, Inc., a Denver-based private exploration & production company focused on the Williston Basin, and its affiliate Foxtrot Resources LLC, filed for chapter 11 protection in the Bankruptcy Court for the District of Delaware (Case No. 21-10570). Nine Point Energy Holdings, Inc. reports $100 million to $500 million in both assets and liabilities. A link to the Nine Point Energy Holdings, Inc. petition can be found here.
Haaland confirmed to lead Interior; Alaska senators vote yes - Both of Alaska’s U.S. Senators joined Democrats in voting to confirm Deb Haaland as Interior secretary Monday. The vote was 51-40. Haaland is the first Native American cabinet secretary. She has tremendous support among Alaska Natives and across Indian Country. Alaska Congressman Don Young, who worked with Haaland on the House Resources Committee, also endorsed her confirmation. But members of Congress from other oil states opposed Haaland, pointing out that she has rallied against pipeline construction and resource extraction on federal land. Sen. Lisa Murkowski said Haaland will hear from her on Alaska issues frequently. “I wish that I could say, ‘Yes, I’ve got every degree of confidence.’ I don’t,” she said in an interview after the vote. “So my obligation is to make sure that I am on top of this all the time.” Murkowski said she impressed on Haaland when they met that she will have to embrace all parts of the job of leading the Interior Department. “Which is not only the American Indian, Alaskan Native, Native Hawaiian portfolio. It is management of all of our nation’s public lands, our resources,” Murkowski said. Murkowski and Sen. Dan Sullivan were among only four Republican senators to support Haaland. The others are Susan Collins of Maine and Lindsey Graham of South Carolina. Alaska tribal organizations applauded her confirmation. So did Alaska Native corporations. Many of the corporations are involved in the business of resource extraction. Their congratulations were tempered.
Fight over drilling in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge was transformed by Indigenous activists - On Jan. 6, as insurrectionists stormed the Capitol, the Trump administration held the first lease sale of the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge. The auction marked a historic moment in the decades-long battle over the refuge’s coastal plain, 1.5 million acres of tundra along the Beaufort Sea in northeastern Alaska. Yet the highly anticipated sale was a flop; major oil companies shied away, and most tracts went to an Alaskan state-funded corporation that doesn’t even own drilling equipment. Although large swaths have been auctioned off, whether this land will be drilled or protected remains uncertain. The national media often describes the Arctic Refuge controversy as a story of wilderness versus oil, a conflict pitting environmentalists against the fossil fuel industry. But that overlooks the political advocacy of the Gwich’in Nation, whose communities reside across northeastern Alaska and northwestern Canada. Since 1988, the Gwich’in have transformed the debate, turning it into a struggle for human rights and environmental justice. Their voices have been essential to keeping oil drills out of the Arctic Refuge. In fighting against the colonial violence of fossil fuel development, the Gwich’in have engaged in a struggle infused with existential meaning: a push to hold onto their identities and cultural traditions, to honor their ancestors, to ensure a future for their children and subsequent generations, and to maintain sacred bonds with their surroundings, which have existed for millennia. In June 1988, members of the Gwich’in Nation traveled from far-flung communities to Arctic Village, 100 miles above the Arctic Circle, to respond to the urgent threat of Reagan’s drilling plan. They knew that the refuge debate had been dominated by environmentalists and multinational energy corporations. Their voices had been marginalized, and it was time to make their concerns known, to explain how the drilling controversy was not just a question of wilderness versus oil.It was the future of their communities, dotted across places now known as Alaska, Yukon and the Northwest Territories; it was the thousands of years they had stewarded these lands; it was the massive herd of caribou they relied upon and cared for; it was their culture, identity and food security. It was a system of settler colonialism, fixated on short-term profits and unsustainable resource extraction, set against Indigenous ways of knowing the land, of relations with the caribou and other creatures that spanned the full sweep of Gwich’in time. They believed it was time to take action.At the end of the 1988 gathering, Gwich’in leaders allied with environmentalists, but on their own terms. “We’re not fighting because that place looks beautiful,” Sarah James, one of the leaders, explained. “We’re fighting because our way of life depends on the land. In order for it to take care of us, we have to take care of the land in return.” They formed a new political advocacy group — the Gwich’in Steering Committee — to ensure that the voices of their people were no longer ignored. The Gwich’in Steering Committee changed public perceptions of the Arctic Refuge. Even as environmentalists continued to celebrate this land as America’s “last great wilderness,” Gwich’in representatives helped non-Indigenous people understand the refuge differently — not as a faraway wilderness but as part of their ecological homeland. By reframing the refuge, the Gwich’in challenged a long colonial history of Indigenous exclusion and erasure from public lands. They turned a traditional wilderness battle into something else entirely: a fight for environmental justice.
President Biden weighing new sanctions to block Russian gas pipeline: BBG (Reuters) - President Joe Biden's administration is weighing additional sanctions to block construction of the nearly completed Nord Stream 2 pipeline from Russia to Germany, potentially including the project's parent company Nord Stream 2 AG, Bloomberg News here reported on Thursday citing three people familiar with the matter. The sanctions would come in the form of an interim report that may also single out an insurance company that has been working with the vessels laying the pipeline in the Baltic Sea as well as other companies providing support vessels and materials to the project, according to the report. Nord Stream 2 will bypass Western ally Ukraine, potentially depriving it of valuable transit fees. It will also increase European energy dependency on Russia and compete with shipments of U.S. liquefied natural gas. The U.S. State Department is tracking efforts to complete the Nord Stream 2 pipeline and evaluating information regarding entities that appear to be involved, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said on Thursday. “Any entity involved in the Nord Stream 2 pipeline risks U.S. sanctions and should immediately abandon work on the pipeline,” Blinken said in a statement. He added that the Biden administration is committed to complying with 2019 and 2020 legislation with regards to the pipeline and sanctions.
Mediterranean oil spill is ‘eco-terrorism’ by Iran, Israel says - The Jerusalem Post - Iran intentionally polluted the Mediterranean Sea and Israel’s shores in an act of ecological terrorism, causing the greatest environmental disaster in Israel’s history, Environmental Protection Minister Gila Gamliel said on Wednesday. “This pollution has people who are responsible for it and have to pay the price. Our nature is damaged, our animals are harmed, thanks to merciless environmental criminals,” Gamliel said. Gamliel explained that, following a two-week investigation, the Environmental Protection Ministry found that the ship that leaked the crude oil, called the Emerald, was owned by a Libyan company and sailed from Iran to Syria. It departed Iran, turning off its automatic identification system (AIS) – which transmits its location to other ships in the area. It turned the AIS on as it went through the Suez Canal, and then off again as it approached Israel’s shores. The ship remained within tens of kilometers of Israel’s shores, within Israel’s economic waters, for nearly a full day, spilling large amounts of oil on February 1-2, with its AIS off. Then it continued on to Syria, where it turned on its transmitter, and it returned to Iran, turning off its AIS as it passed Israel. It is currently in Iran. The tar reached Israeli shores on February 17. “Now we see Iran is not just terrorizing [Israel] with [attempts at attaining] nuclear weapons and entrenching itself in our region, but also by harming the environment,” Gamliel said. “They’re not just hurting Israel. Nature and animals don’t just belong to one nation. This is a battle that crosses borders.”Gamliel said that Israel will demand compensation from the International Oil Pollution Compensation Fund and the ship’s insurers. “We will settle the score with the polluters in the name of all Israelis for the harm to our health, nature, animals and view,” she vowed. “We cannot abandon our sea. Our sea is our natural treasure that we must protect.” The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and the European Maritime Safety Agency, as well as Israeli maritime research company Windward, helped the Environmental Protection Ministry investigate the oil spill. None of the agencies knew about the oil spill before the tar reached Israeli shores, over two weeks after it occurred. Samples of the tar, which the Environmental Protection Ministry examined, showed that it came from crude oil, which sharply reduced the number of suspected ships from 35 to four. Two were found to have been too far away, and another was examined by local authorities in Spain and by Israeli investigators in Greece. The fourth is the Emerald, currently in Iran.
Israels beaches see more tar as oil spill consequences continue -As Israel's shores continue to sustain the damages incurred by the oil spill, more tar has surfaced along the coasts, including the Betzet, Beit Yanai, Tel Dor and Dor Habonim beaches, Walla reported, citing the Nature and Parks Authority on Friday.The oil spill that struck the Mediterranean Sea in February has been dubbed an ecological disaster, leading to the death of many animals, and the washing up of massive quantities of tar — over 70 tons — on Israel's shores. The Environmental Protection Ministry has estimated that the amount that washed up is a small amount of what is still in the ocean: 1,200 tons.Tar lumps were sighted as early as February 15, prompting calls for emergency protocols and cleaning crews.While the tar can be cleaned up on smooth sand beaches, it is much harder to clean from rocky beaches, so the tar remains.Hundreds of volunteers have arrived at the 160 km stretches of the Israeli coastline that has sustained the tar pollution to clean it up, including IDF soldiers with disabilities. The beach pollution "is one of the most dire we've ever seen in Israel," according to Nature and Parks Authority Director-General Shaul Goldstein. The texture of the tar seems to be from an oil or gas spill passing along Israel's shores.This interactive map shows how severe the tar spills are in different parts of the coast, in a traffic light system, red signifying beaches that have not been cleaned up at all, and green marking light pollution levels. Environmental Protection Minister Gila Gamliel has pointed the finger at Iran, calling the intentional spill "eco-terrorism." Her claims were later backed up by Lloy'd List, a leading international shipping journal.
Israel says tanker suspected of oil spill off coast has Syrian owners -Information collected by an Israeli-founded private intelligence firm has revealed the identity of the owners of the Emerald, the tanker suspected of spilling massive amounts of oil off the Israeli coast in February, the Environmental Protection Ministry said Sunday. The investigation by the firm Black Cube found that Emerald – which is registered in the Marshall Islands – is owned by a company called Emerald Marine LTD. Black Cube claims to have found the ownership by using international shipping listings. It also said it recorded a senior captain working for Emerald Marine LTD and a brother of an Emerald Marine LTD owner. The ministry stressed in a statement that Black Cube conducted the investigation on its own. The information Black Cube gave the ministry indicated further that a company names Oryx Shipping has ownership over the Emerald. Oryx Shipping is registered in Piraeus, Greece, and owned by the Syrian Malah family. Its ships are insured by The Islamic P&I Club, known as one of the only firms in the world willing to insure Iranian vessels. The information provided by Black Cube indicates that the Malah group holds a number of shell companies in the Marshall Islands, Panama, and even one British company. All of these are registered to the same address in Piraeus. When representatives of Black Cube visited the address, they found an apartment there, with no signs indicating a business presence More than 1,000 tons of tar are estimated to have washed onto Israel’s Mediterranean coastline last month, causing extensive environmental damage and forcing the closure of beaches to the public. Israel’s Nature and Parks Authority called the incident one of the country’s worst environmental disasters, and the cleanup is expected to take months. Earlier this month, the Environmental Protection Ministry identified the Emerald as the ship it believed was responsible for the oil spill. Its investigation determined the ship was smuggling oil from Iran to Syria when the spill occurred in early February. Environmental Protection Minister Gila Gamliel has claimed that the oil spill was an intentional attack by Iran, but has provided no evidence for her claim.
Shell Completes $2.5B Deal - Shell’s holly owned subsidiary, QGC Common Facilities Company Pty Ltd, has revealed that it has completed the sale of a 26.25 percent interest in the Queensland Curtis LNG (QCLNG) Common Facilities to Global Infrastructure Partners Australia for $2.5 billion. The sale, which was first announced on December 21, 2020, is consistent with Shell’s strategy of selling non-core assets in order to further high-grade and simplify its portfolio, Shell noted. Shell said the sale will contribute to its expected divestment proceeds, without impact on people or the operations of the QCLNG venture. The transaction has no impact on the ownership structure of QGC or QCLNG. Shell remains the operator and majority interest holder in QGC, together with CNOOC and Tokyo Gas, whose interests remain unchanged following the completion of the deal. QCLNG Common Facilities include LNG storage tanks, jetties, and operations infrastructure that service QCLNG’s LNG trains. Global Infrastructure Partners Australia is an affiliate of Global Infrastructure Partners, which is an independent infrastructure fund manager that makes equity and debt investments in infrastructure assets and businesses. Earlier this month, Shell Egypt and one of its affiliates signed an agreement with a consortium, made up of subsidiaries of Cheiron Petroleum Corporation and Cairn Energy plc, for the sale of Shell’s upstream assets in Egypt’s Western Desert for a base consideration of $646 million, plus additional payments of up to $280 million. In February, Shell Canada Energy reached an agreement with Crescent Point Energy Corp. to sell its Duvernay shale light oil position in Alberta for a total consideration of $707 million. Back in January, the Shell Petroleum Development Company of Nigeria Limited completed the sale of its 30 percent interest in Oil Mining Lease (OML) 17 in the Eastern Niger Delta, and associated infrastructure, to TNOG Oil and Gas Limited for a consideration of $533 million.
EPA ordered to pay oil and gas company $110k --In a scathing Environment Court decision, the Environmental Protection Authority has been ordered to pay $110,000 to an oil and gas company it prevented from disconnecting a floating production station from the Tui Oil Field off the coast of Taranaki. The EPA issued abatement notices to stop BW Offshore removing the Umuroa from the field early last year, saying the company could not rely on a 2017 EPA ruling allowing them to do so. The regulator was concerned unplugging flowlines connecting the vessel to Tui risked spilling oil into the ocean. The Umuroa was contracted to Tui operator Tamarind Taranaki which collapsed in December 2019, leaving the government with an estimated $155 million bill to decommission the field. Initial legal wrangling failed to overturn the abatement notices and eventually, a two-day appeal was heard in the Environment Court which cancelled them in October. In the same month the Umuroa went into voluntary liquidation.. BW Offshore said it had cost $31 million to have the vessel at Tui in 2020 while it missed out on $46 million in potential earnings elsewhere. In November, the company made an application for court costs against the EPA of almost $300,000. It argued the basis for the EPA abatement notices was without merit or substance. "The EPA did not file any expert evidence to support its arguments, in circumstances where it would reasonably have been expected to do so if there had been a proper basis for the abatement notices," BW Offshore said. The EPA submitted that no order for costs against it should be made against it. "As a regulatory consent authority the EPA has performed it duties properly and acted reasonably, and the appeal arose out of a genuine dispute about legal rights - the effect of the 2017 Ruling - which was in the interests of the parties to resolve," it argued. In his decision, Judge Smith noted that it was unusual to award costs against a regulatory body, but that the EPA's actions displayed a level of blame that met the threshold for this.
Argentina's Illegal Oil and Gas Waste Dumps Show 'Dark Side' of Vaca Muerta Drilling, Says Criminal Complaint - On December 21, 2020, environmental crimes investigators in the western Argentine province of Neuquén carried out araid against a company that handles fracking waste in the heart of the Vaca Muerta shale basin, a booming oil and gas field in northern Patagonia. They seized a cache of documents, and opened an investigation into the potential illegal handling of massive volumes of fracking waste.The raid on the Argentine waste company Comarsa by the office of Environmental Crimes and Special Laws, a unit under Neuquén’s chief prosecutor, was prompted by a lengthy criminal complaint filed to the office just a few days earlier by a group of environmental lawyers. Within the complaint, the lawyers document what they describe as a decade-long illegal accumulation of toxic fracking waste at multiple sites in the city of Neuquén, the largest city in Patagonia with a population over 300,000. The sites are located within the city and also on the outskirts of Añelo, a small desert town of 8,000 about an hour and a half drive northwest of Neuquén and the unofficial drilling capital of the Vaca Muerta.But the criminal complaint didn’t just target Comarsa, one of the leading handlers of fracking waste in the Vaca Muerta. It also pointed fingers at the municipalities of Neuquén and Añelo, the Secretariat of Territorial Development and Environment (environmental regulators for the province of Neuquén), and the region’s top oil producers, including ExxonMobil and Chevron. “The Vaca Muerta oil dumps are the result of a series of maneuvers that are part of a collusion between companies and state authorities,” Rafael Colombo, a lawyer for the Argentine Association of Environmental Lawyers, or AAAA, said in a press release when he filed the criminal complaint in December. According to AAAA, Comarsa earns huge sums “for the treatment of waste that they never treat,” Colombo said, “then they get the State to give them public lands to end up disposing of hazardous waste illegally.” The illegal fracking waste sites are the “dark side” of Vaca Muerta, he said.
Exclusive: India readies Saudi oil import cut as stand-off escalates - sources (Reuters) - Indian state refiners are planning to cut oil imports from Saudi Arabia by about a quarter in May, in an escalating stand-off with Riyadh following OPEC’s decision to ignore calls from New Delhi to help the global economy with higher supply. Two sources familiar with the discussions said the move was part of the government’s drive to cut dependence on crude from the Middle East. Indian Oil Corp, Bharat Petroleum Corp., Hindustan Petroleum Corp and Mangalore Refinery and Petrochemicals Ltd are preparing to lift about 10.8 million barrels in May, the sources said on condition of anonymity. State refiners, which control about 60% of India’s 5 million barrels per day (bpd) refining capacity, together import an average 14.7-14.8 million barrels of Saudi oil in a month, the sources said. India, the world’s third-biggest oil importer and consumer, imports more than 80% of its oil needs and relies heavily on the Middle East. Hit hard by rising oil prices, India’s oil minister Dharmendra Pradhan has repeatedly called on the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies, known as OPEC+, to ease supply curbs. He has blamed Saudi’s voluntary cuts for contributing to a spike in global oil prices. OPEC+ decided this month to extend most cuts into April. Responding to Pradhan’s request, Saudi energy minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman suggested India dip into strategic reserves filled with cheaper oil bought last year. India’s oil ministry responded by asking refiners to speed up their diversification of crude sources and reduce reliance on the Middle East. Indian refiners could not cut April oil imports from Saudi Arabia as nominations were placed before the OPEC+ decision in early March, the sources said, adding that plans for May were preliminary and final May nominations would be known in early April. Saudi Arabia has cut April oil supplies for some Asian refiners but has maintained average monthly volumes for Indian refiners. The Kingdom has, however, rejected demand from Indian companies for extra supplies.
India plans to cut Saudi oil import as Riyadh ignores calls from New Delhi - Indian state refiners are planning to cut oil imports from Saudi Arabia by about a quarter in May, in an escalating stand-off with Riyadh following OPEC's decision to ignore calls from New Delhi to help the global economy with higher supply. Two sources familiar with the discussions said the move was part of the government's drive to cut dependence on crude from the Middle East. Indian Oil Corp, Bharat Petroleum Corp., Hindustan Petroleum Corp and Mangalore Refinery and Petrochemicals Ltd are preparing to lift about 10.8 million barrels in May, the sources said on condition of anonymity. State refiners, which control about 60% of India's 5 million barrels per day (bpd) refining capacity, together import an average 14.7-14.8 million barrels of Saudi oil in a month, the sources said. India, the world's third-biggest oil importer and consumer, imports more than 80% of its oil needs and relies heavily on the Middle East. Hit hard by rising oil prices, India's oil minister Dharmendra Pradhan has repeatedly called on the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies, known as OPEC+, to ease supply curbs. He has blamed Saudi's voluntary cuts for contributing to a spike in global oil prices. OPEC+ decided this month to extend most cuts into April. Responding to Pradhan's request, Saudi energy minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman suggested India dip into strategic reserves filled with cheaper oil bought last year.
US crude's maiden sprint past Saudi makes it India's flavor of the month — India's dramatic surge in US crude inflows has helped the exporter to displace Saudi Arabia for the first time, as refiners queued up for lighter feedstock anticipating robust demand for gasoline and other products, while staying away from Middle Eastern supplies following OPEC-led output cuts. While the surprise twist in buying pattern -- that saw US crude imports jumping to the second spot in February, from fifth in 2020 -- stems partly from evolving demand trend, analysts told S&P Global Platts, it also signals New Delhi's objection to the surprise production cuts, which has prompted the country to aggressively diversify its import basket. "India's displeasure with rising oil prices in general and Saudi production cuts in particular has created a market opportunity for US crude at a time when US demand is still reeling from the pandemic -- and indeed may be permanently crippled by the wave of refinery closures triggered by COVID-19," said Antoine Halff, adjunct senior research scholar at Columbia University's Center on Global Energy Policy. "What remains to be seen is whether this marriage of convenience can last and whether Saudi Arabia will willingly cede market place to the US for the longer term," said Halff, who is also the founding partner and chief analyst at Kayrros. US crude imports by India stood at 12.69 million mt in 2020, up nearly 29% from a year earlier, helping the country move up to fifth position from sixth in 2019, data from GAC Shipping (India) Private Ltd. showed. But in February, inflows from the US was 2.11 million mt, about 32% higher than 1.61 million mt inflows from Saudi Arabia. This pushed US to the second spot. Iraq retained its position as the top supplier, with shipments of 2.89 million mt in the same month.
EIA expects crude oil prices to rise through April because of lower OPEC production -In its March Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) expects Brent crude oil prices will average $64 per barrel (b) in the second quarter of 2021 and then fall to less than $60/b through the end of 2022. Higher crude oil prices in March and April are primarily a result of lower crude oil production from members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and partner countries (OPEC+), as announced at their March 4 meeting.In February 2021, OPEC+ cuts, combined with supply disruptions in the United States, contributed to monthly global petroleum inventory withdrawals that EIA estimates totaled 3.7 million b/d, the largest monthly withdrawal since December 2002. The Brent crude oil futures price averaged $63/b in early March leading up to the OPEC+ meeting, and the OPEC+ announcement put further upward pressure on crude oil prices.The front-month Brent futures price briefly surpassed $70/b in intraday trading in the days following the announcement, not only because of the announcement but also because of an attack on the Ras Tanura oil facilities in Saudi Arabia on March 7. As a result of the extension of OPEC+ production cuts, EIA expects draws on global petroleum and other liquids inventories of 1.8 million b/d and 0.6 million b/d in the first and second quarters of 2021, respectively. The sustained OPEC+ production curtailment through April suggests that supply will remain constrained in the near term, even as demand continues to increase. As a result, EIA expects that further inventory withdrawals to meet rising crude oil demand will keep crude oil prices elevated through at least the end of April. EIA’s forecast of downward oil price pressure and increased crude oil availability has several key uncertainties.The speed of actual demand recovery, based on COVID-19 vaccination rates and the degree to which travel and employment conditions return to pre-COVID norms, remains an important uncertainty on the demand side. At the same time, the degree to which OPEC+ production cuts will continue after April remains a source of uncertainty on the supply side, especially because increasing crude oil prices will encourage OPEC+ participants to agree to production increases in later meetings or to relax compliance with the existing agreement. Finally, the responsiveness of U.S. tight oil production to higher oil prices is also uncertain.
Oil Prices Decline As Dollar Keeps Strengthening -- Oil declined for a second day as the market’s underlying structure weakened and the dollar strengthened. Futures edged 0.3% lower in New York on Monday, paring earlier losses as U.S. equities reversed a decline. While the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index faded from a session high, a small gain for the greenback still weighed on commodities priced in the currency. Crude wasn’t able to shake off declines entirely as key calendar spreads weakened. West Texas Intermediate crude’s nearest timespread settled at its deepest contango structure since January, signaling oversupply. Flagging demand for U.S. exports is hitting the market at the same time as domestic oil output has outpaced the recovery in refineries after last month’s deep freeze. “There’s a little bit of consolidation after the pretty sizable move” in prices, said Stewart Glickman, energy equity analyst at CFRA Research. “Inventory levels are not terrible, but demand isn’t all the way back.” Prices are up more than 30% this year, but the rally is reviving some worries that further gains will trigger a comeback in U.S. shale production. Traders are also watching for signs that more Iranian barrels may hit the market amid U.S. efforts to return to the nuclear deal. “The possibility of Iranian oil coming back onto the market at some point,” is weighing on the supply outlook, said Tariq Zahir, managing member of the global macro program at Tyche Capital Advisors LLC. “Getting them back into the nuclear deal, allowing some sanctions to be lifted and oil to be sold, that’s a lot of oil in the market.” Meanwhile, risks to the demand recovery remain, with Europe’s biggest countries suspending use of AstraZeneca Plc’s Covid-19 shot in another delay for the European Union’s vaccination campaign. The rebound for energy consumption will hinge on how well economies are able to open back up after Covid lockdowns. West Texas Intermediate for April delivery fell 22 cents to $65.39 a barrel. Brent for May settlement declined 34 cents to $68.88 a barrel. Still, a growing number of major investment banks have boosted their outlook for crude prices with OPEC+ currently keeping output restrained and bright spots emerging for demand. Bank of America Global Research raised its full-year forecasts for global and U.S. benchmark crude futures, while Citigroup Inc. predicts Brent may even hit $80 a barrel in the next few months. In China, industrial output surged in the first two months of the year, underscoring the strength of its V-shaped rebound and reinforcing expectations for increased energy demand. China processed more than 14 million barrels a day of crude in January and February, and refiners have kept consumption above that level every month since June. There are also bullish demand signs elsewhere, with U.S. air passenger numbers hitting a 12-month high on Friday, while road use is creeping up in parts of Europe..
Oil slips, retreats from gains notched on strong Chinese data (Reuters) - Oil prices edged lower on Monday, pulling back from early gains fostered on strong Chinese economic news and ongoing supply restraint from major oil producers. Crude benchmarks have steadily climbed throughout 2021 as major oil producers restrained supply and coronavirus vaccine distribution quickened, feeding hopes of stronger economies and fuel demand. Brent crude futures for May settled at $68.88 a barrel, losing 34 cents. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude for April settled at $65.39 a barrel, shedding 22 cents. China's industrial output growth quickened in January-February, beating expectations, while its daily refinery throughput data rose 15% from a year earlier, data showed. Top oil exporter Saudi Arabia cut supply of April-loading crude to at least four north Asian buyers by up to 15%, while meeting the normal monthly requirements of Indian refiners, refinery sources told Reuters on Friday. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies, a group known as OPEC+, decided this month to extend most supply cuts into April. A massive U.S. stimulus package passed this month, raising prospects for global economic growth. Washington is considering tax increases on corporations, high earners and fuel, to pay for a sweeping infrastructure plan, which could crimp oil demand, analysts say. "They will be putting people to work and they will be putting businesses back in the field to develop infrastructure, but between now and then, someone's got to pay for it," said Bob Yawger, director of energy futures at Mizuho. "The majority of it looks like it's going to be a tax event, so that's negative for demand." Prices were pressured by expectations that last month's winter storm in Texas could keep boosting crude inventories. "There's talk that because of the Texas power outages, we may see another increase in inventories this week," said Phil Flynn, senior analyst at Price Futures Group in Chicago, referencing U.S. oil inventory data released on Tuesday and Wednesday. Still, analysts said a pact by top producers to rein in output and a rebound to demand due to vaccine roll-outs will keep pushing prices upward despite any temporary setbacks
Oil Retreats as Market Awaits Demand Recovery - -- Oil retreated for a third day to trade below $65 a barrel, as the market awaits signs of further recovery in consumption.West Texas Intermediate fell 1.5%, with futures consolidating after a run that’s seen them rise about 30% so far this year. On Monday, WTI’s nearest timespread slipped into a bearish contango structure, signaling short-term oversupply, however the rest of the curve remains in a bullish backwardation.Though there are signs of recovering demand in some parts of the world, other regions -- notably Europe -- are lagging. Road-fuel consumption is growing in India and the U.S., while Italy has headed back into lockdown.Oil’s been on a strong run as supply cuts from OPEC and its allies tighten the market and expectations grow for a rebound in travel over the northern hemisphere’s summer. But there are mixed signs emerging as Iranian oil flows heavily to China and the pace of coronavirus vaccination rollouts remain uneven across the globe.“The market is now immediately looking for physical clues as an explanation to this front-end weakness,” said Bjarne Schieldrop, chief commodities analyst at SEB AB. “In the background though, Covid-19 vaccines keep being rolled out and global oil demand in general and the U.S. specifically keeps rebounding.” WTI lost 1.5% to $64.44 a barrel at 7:31 a.m. in New York.Brent also fell 1.4% to trade at $67.92. In the U.S., coronavirus cases rose last week at the slowest pace since the pandemic began. At the same time, retail gasoline sales increased to just 1% below year-ago levels, according to GasBuddy. That’s good news for an industry that relies on the busy summer driving season to buoy profits.
Oil drops as COVID-19 vaccine halt threatens demand (Reuters) - Oil prices fell for a third day on Tuesday, as Germany, France and other European states suspended the use of a major coronavirus vaccine, threatening the recovery of fuel demand. Brent crude fell 49 cents to settle at $68.39 a barrel, while U.S. crude dropped 59 cents to end at $64.80 a barrel. Earlier this month, Brent reached its highest since early 2020, while U.S. crude hit a 2018 high. Germany, France and Italy said they would suspend use of the Oxford/AstraZeneca COVID-19 vaccine after reports about possible serious side effects, although the World Health Organization said there was no established link to the vaccine. Europe’s medicines watchdog said the benefits of the AstraZeneca vaccine outweigh its risks. Investors are worried the slow pace of vaccinations in the European Union could hurt economic recovery and fuel demand. “For oil demand to fully recover, a successful and rapid inoculation of the global population needs to take place,” said Bjornar Tonhaugen, Rystad Energy’s head of oil markets. “Before the recent setback, there was positivity that the campaigns under way were on the right track.” The pandemic eviscerated demand for oil. Prices have recovered to levels seen before the global health crisis, but gains have been capped by slow progress of vaccine rollouts in many countries. In the United States, crude inventories are rising as refineries have yet to recover fully from a mid-February deep freeze in Texas that halted their operations. “Short-term direction will be set by the weekly U.S. inventory reports,” PVM analysts said in a note, adding that the dollar’s strength against other currencies also weighed on oil prices.
WTI Jumps Back Above $65 After Crude Stocks Unexpectedly Dropped - Oil prices ended lower today, with WTI back below $65, as traders weighed demand amid global recovery expectations against Europe's vaccination debacle."The crude demand outlook still remains the key for higher prices and if short-term risks continue to grow due to virus variants, oil prices could be in for modest 10% pullback," Moya said. He also said in a market update Tuesday that the suspension of the use of AstraZeneca's vaccine by some European nations "should diminish the crude demand outlook in the short term."Road-fuel use is picking up in India and the U.S., but in France, consumption remained 10.8% lower in February year-over-year, according to the country’s petroleum-industry federation UFIP.Additionally, on the supply side, OPEC+ alliance’s aggressive supply management that has helped shepherd prices up from unprecedented lows last year is facing an emerging threat of Iranian oil.Oil prices have fallen as "U.S. refiners struggle to bounce back from the Texas power crisis" in mid-February when the state was hit by a frigid temperatures, said Phil Flynn, senior market analyst at The Price Futures Group."Expectations of another crude build is holding us back."Crude stocks were expected to have risen for the 4th straight week (and sit at their highest since December), albeit very modestly. API:
- Crude -1.00mm (+400k exp)
- Cushing
- Gasoline -930k (-1.4mm exp)
- Distillates +904k (-900k exp)
After two weeks of somewhat chaotic and storm-impacted inventory data, API reported a surprise draw in crude stocks...WTI hovered between $65 and $64.50 ahead of the print and jumpe dback above $65
WTI Extends Losses As Crude Stocks Surge To 4-Month Highs - Oil prices rollercoastered overnight, rallying on the surprise API-reported crude draw and then slumping during the EU session amid demand concerns (driven by the terrible vaccine rollout). "The hope now is that Europe can get its sluggish vaccine rollout back on track." Oil weakness was exacerbated by IEA's latest report that said a supercycle was unlikely, demand won't return to pre-pandemic levels until 2023 and could peak earlier than previously thought. After the prior two weeks of record-breaking swings in inventories, this last week is expected to show only modest changes, with crude stocks sitting at their highest since early December. DOE
- Crude +2.396mm (+400k exp)
- Cushing -624k
- Gasoline +472k (-1.4mm exp)
- Distillates +255k (-900k exp)
Despite refinery utilization recovering from the weather chaos in Texas, crude stocks increased last week (significantly more than API and was expected). Graphics Source: Bloomberg US Crude production has yet to accelerate along with higher prices and more rigs... WTI hovered around $64.50 ahead of the official inventory data and reversed its rebound on the print...
Oil Falls After EIA Reports Inventory Build on All Fronts - U.S. oil prices fell yesterday after U.S. government data showed a weekly build in crude, gasoline and distillate supplies. A rise in stocks across the board together with little chance of an oil supercycle dragged WTI crude futures, which edged down 20 cents or 0.3%, to settle at $64.60 a barrel on Wednesday. The federal government’s EIA report revealed that crude inventories rose by 2.4 million barrels compared with expectations of a 400,000-barrels increase. The continued revival in domestic production from February’s winter storm-led shut-ins and the underwhelming recovery in refinery demand primarily accounted for the higher-than-expected stockpile build with the world’s biggest oil consumer. This puts total domestic stocks at 500.8 million barrels — 10.4% more than the year-ago figure and 6% higher than the five-year average. On a somewhat positive note, the latest report showed that supplies at the Cushing terminal (the key delivery hub for U.S. crude futures traded on the New York Mercantile Exchange) fell 624,000 barrels to 48.2 million barrels. Meanwhile, the crude supply cover was up from 40.5 days in the previous week to 41.8 days. In the year-ago period, the supply cover was 28.7 days. Gasoline supplies increased for the first time in three weeks. The 472,000-barrels build is attributable to stuttering demand. Analysts had forecast gasoline inventories to fall by 1.4 million barrels. At 232.1 million barrels, the current stock of the most widely used petroleum product is 3.6% less than the year-earlier level and 4% below the five-year average range. Distillate fuel supplies (including diesel and heating oil) rose last week after falling for seven weeks in a row. The 255,000-barrels increase reflected ramped-down usage. Meanwhile, the market looked for a supply decline of 900,000 barrels. Current inventories — at 137.7 million barrels — are 10.1% higher than the year-ago level but 2% less than the five-year average. Refinery utilization was up 7.1% from the prior week to 76.1%. Oil prices settled marginally lower on Wednesday as crude and product inventories rose, pointing to the still-fragile fundamentals in the energy market. Selling pressure was also fueled by a report from the Paris-based International Energy Agency ("IEA"), which dashed hopes of an oil supercycle (or a sustained period of rising prices), suggesting ample supplies.
Oil Sinks To Lowest This Month On U.S. - Russia Tension, Rising Inventory -- Crude oil futures plunged more than 5% in their biggest intraday loss since December, 2020, with some analysts citing concerns over rising tensions between the U.S. and Russia.April WTI crude fell 5.8% to $60.85/bbl and May Brent fell 5.5% to $64.23/bbl, both hitting at least two-week lows. The fifth day of declines for both contracts also marks the longest losing streak for WTI since February 2020 and for Brent since September 2020."U.S.-Russia tensions are increasing, with the U.S. threatening sanctions on Russia," ... one way Russia could retaliate is to target shale producers by flooding the market with oil.
President Biden earlier this week essentially called Russian President Putin "a killer," prompting Russia to recall its ambassador to the U.S. for consultations.
Analysts say Europe's sluggish vaccine rollout also remains a weight on crude, raising questions about the speed of the recovery in demand.
"Even if the AstraZeneca vaccine recovers public confidence, this will likely not be the last inoculation issue to arise as countries race to vaccinate as many people as possible all while new mutations are constantly being discovered," says Rystad Energy analyst Louise Dickson.Also, U.S. government data continues to show rising crude inventories after last month's Texas freeze forced shutdowns at refineries, and traders say stockpiles could grow further since WTI recently switched from backwardation to contango, where front-month oil is cheaper than the second-month. "Contango is bearish because it encourages [firms to] store crude oil and sell it further down the curve at a profit," Mizuho's Bob Yawger says. And the latest report from the International Energy Agency said pre-pandemic global oil demand is unlikely to return for at least another two years.
Oil Sees Biggest Single-Day Loss Since April 2020 --Oil prices began crashing on Thursday afternoon, falling nearly 9%. WTI slid 8.68% to $58.99 per barrel by 4:04pm ET, while Brent had slipped 8.01% to $62.55 per barrel. It is the biggest drop in absolute terms since April 2020, when oil slipped into negative territory.Analysts have been volleying predictions during the recent price rally, with bulls signaling there is more room to run, making proclamations of a coming supercycle. Others, more cautious in their outlooks, have warned for a couple of weeks that the optimism present in the oil markets were unjustified.The recent rally was largely on the back of OPEC+ production cuts—or rather, the fact that they agreed to hold production steady in April, instead of ramping up production as the market had anticipated. The passing of the 3rd round of stimulus in the United States had also bolstered oil market sentimentBut a rising dollar, increased crude inventories in the U.S., growing fears of a resurgence in coronavirus cases and vaccine safety concerns in Europe have proven worthy adversaries.Those concerns are linked directly to oil demand resurgence. And markets are viewing this demand picture as less favorable today, as shown by crude futures which show the market backwardation is waning.WTI’s front-month contract is once again trading at a discount to the following month. Crude oil WTI April contract is now trading at $59.46 per barrel, while the May contract is trading at $59.57. WTI’s April contract is now down $5.14 on the day.This is the fifth day in a row for oil price declines and the biggest drop in absolute terms since Apr 2020
Oil drops 7% on Europe vaccine snag, U.S.-Russia tensions - Oil futures dropped 7% on Thursday, falling for a fifth straight session to finish at their lowest in more than two weeks, with some analysts noting concern over rising tensions between the U.S. and Russia, as well as a slowdown in the European vaccine rollout.“U.S.-Russia tensions are increasing, with the U.S. threatening sanctions on Russia,” Phillip Streible, chief market strategist at Blue Line Futures, told MarketWatch. “One way Russia could retaliate is to target shale producers by flooding the market with oil.”U.S. President Joe Biden, when asked in an interview earlier week about whether Russian President Vladimir Putin is a killer, said “I do.” Russia then announced on Wednesday it’s recalling its ambassador to Washington for consultations.On Thursday, West Texas Intermediate crude for April delivery fell $4.60, or 7.1%, to settle at $60 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, with prices suffering their largest one-day percentage loss since Sept. 8, according to Dow Jones Market Data.May Brent crude, the global benchmark, declined by $4.72, or 6.9%, at $63.28 a barrel on ICE Futures Europe. That marked its largest daily percentage loss since June of last year. Prices for both WTI and Brent, based on the front-month contracts, settled at their lowest since March 2.Oil has also been unable to shake off weakness tied to the rise in U.S. crude inventories. The Energy Information Administration reported Wednesday that U.S. crude inventories rose by 2.4 million barrels for the week ended March 12. The rise followed increases reported by the agency in each of the previous three weeks.“Crude stocks have been swelling for the past four weeks, largely as a postmortem effect of the February freeze in Texas that slashed the demand for oil input into refineries,” said Louise Dickson, oil markets analyst at Rystad Energy, in market commentary.“In terms of the inventory builds, these will take time to clear out, but the U.S. appears to be moving in the right direction with its vaccine rollouts and lifting restrictions across many states that should spur economic recovery and end-user oil consumption,” she said.A sluggish vaccine rollout in Europe also remains a weight on crude, analysts said, raising questions about the speed of the recovery in demand for crude.“Even if the AstraZeneca vaccine recovers public confidence, this will likely not be the last inoculation issue to arise as countries race to vaccinate as many people as possible all while new mutations are constantly being discovered,” said Dickson. Gasoline inventories, which had fallen sharply in previous weeks as a result of refinery shutdowns, also rose last week, according to the EIA.
Oil Prices Make Comeback -- Oil came back from a sell-off that investment banks from Goldman Sachs to Morgan Stanley said was excessive and offered an opportunity to buy, with physical crude markets still showing signs of strength in the long run. Futures in New York rose 2.4% on Friday, after a plunge of more than 7% in the previous session. While the market may have gotten too long for its own good, the recent price weakness is likely temporary as signs remain that demand is set to recover and supplies will tighten. “What happened yesterday is not indicative of overly soft physical markets,” said Michael Tran, an analyst at RBC Capital Markets. “The market was getting pretty stretched, so given the general headlines of China slowing to some degree, Covid returning in Europe and demand maybe not being as robust as people had thought, these are all just convenient opportunities for the market to rebase, retrench and reload heading into the summer.” Still, prices are headed for the worst week since October. A combination of factors conspired to bring a 30%-plus rally this year to a screeching halt: Treasury yields that pushed the dollar higher, signs of weaker consumption in Asia in the short-term and the unwinding of long positions by commodity trading advisors. Technical indicators had shown a market correction was overdue. But even after the abrupt setback, futures are still up more than 20% so far in 2021 on prospects for a recovery this year from the coronavirus pandemic and OPEC+’s output discipline thus far. The sell-off will prove to be “transient” and this week’s decline presents a buying opportunity, Goldman analyst Damien Courvalin said in a note. There will still be a swift rebalancing of the market, with vaccinations driving an increase in mobility, he said. Undersupply is likely to continue through this year should demand accelerate and OPEC+ continuing to show output restraint, Morgan Stanley said in a report. In that case, the market should remain in deficit, allowing inventories for countries in the Organization of Economic Cooperation and Development to normalize during the third quarter, analysts Martijn Rats and Amy Sergeant wrote. Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia said a drone attack at an Aramco refinery in Riyadh had no impact on oil supplies, according to the country’s state-run Saudi Press Agency, which said Yemen’s Iran-backed Houthi rebels were behind the attack. West Texas Intermediate for April delivery added $1.42 to settle at $61.42 a barrel in New York. More actively traded May contract is set for a 6.4% weekly decline. The S&P 500 Energy Index rose Friday after slumping 4.7% on Thursday, recouping some of the losses from its biggest decline in more than three months. For now, there are signs of weakness in physical market demand, particularly in Asia. At the same time, Europe’s vaccine rollout remains sluggish -- another headwind for the recovery in consumption. The oil market’s structure also weakened markedly. Key gauges of supply for West Texas Intermediate and Brent crude veered nearer to a bearish contango structure, signaling oversupply.
Oil prices rise 2% but post weekly decline on demand fears (Reuters) - Oil rose more than 2% in volatile trading on Friday, but finished the week about 7% lower as a new wave of coronavirus infections across Europe dampened hopes that fuel demand would recover soon. Brent crude settled up $1.25 a barrel, or 2%, at $64.53 a barrel. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) U.S. crude rose $1.42, or 2.4%, to $61.42. During the session, both traded within a wide range of more than $2 a barrel. The weekly loss for both benchmarks was just under 7%. On Thursday, oil slid 7% as large European economies reimposed lockdowns, while vaccination programs there were slowed by distribution issues and fears of side effects. Prices rose on Friday as many market players viewed the sell-off as overdone. “The sell-off is going to put into motion some things that could have slowed the rally,” said Phil Flynn, senior analyst at Price Futures Group in Chicago. “OPEC is going to be more concerned about COVID, so this increases the odds that they will extend production cuts yet again, and with the sharp drop in the price of oil, it might reduce the incentive of the U.S. shale producers to get ahead of their skis.” U.S. shale production has swelled global oil supplies as fuel demand cratered during the pandemic. U.S. drillers added nine oil rigs in this week, the biggest weekly increase since January, oil services firm Baker Hughes said.[RIG/U] Concerns about vaccine rollouts capped oil’s gains. Germany, France and other countries have announced resumption of inoculations with the AstraZeneca shot after regulators declared that vaccine safe. But the earlier halt has made it harder to overcome resistance to vaccines. Britain announced it would have to slow its COVID-19 vaccine rollout next month because of a supply delay. Goldman Sachs said oil market headwinds related to European Union demand and Iran supply would slow market rebalancing in the second quarter, though it expects the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies to act to offset that. Iran has moved record amounts of crude oil to top client China in recent months while India’s state refiners have added Iranian oil to their annual import plans on the assumption that U.S. sanctions on the OPEC supplier will soon ease. Goldman expects a significant increase in global oil demand in the coming months, lifting its Brent price forecast to $80 a barrel this summer. Hedge funds and other money managers raised their net long U.S. crude futures and options positions in the latest week, the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) said
The devastating impact of the 10-year US-orchestrated war on Syria --March 15 marks a decade since the start of the campaign by Washington and its regional allies to topple the regime of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. The Obama administration utilised anti-government protests in several Syrian cities that were suppressed with lethal force in March 2011, as in Libya before it, as the pretext for a large-scale operation in pursuit of its geo-strategic interests—against a regime with which it had long been at odds. The CIA and Washington’s regional allies—the Gulf petro-monarchs, Turkey and Israel—financed, sponsored, trained and aided a succession of Islamist militias as their proxies to carry out the task of unseating Assad. These Sunni sectarian forces, some of whom like al-Nusra Front were linked to al-Qaeda, were ludicrously hailed as “revolutionaries.” A plethora of pseudo-left groups and academics also hailed these “revolutionaries,” in many cases discredited former regime figures. No attempt was made to describe their political programme or to explain why feudal Gulf despots who outlaw all opposition to their rule at home would support a progressive revolution abroad. Despite this assistance, these opposition forces proved unable to topple Assad, testifying to the lack of popular support for their far-right, often jihadist politics. Today, the situation in Syria, formerly a middle-income country, is in UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres’s words a “living nightmare,” where, “The scale of the atrocities shocks the conscience.” The appalling suffering produced by imperialist warmongering—other than that in the opposition-held Idlib province—has largely been ignored by the world’s media. The fighting has led to the deaths of more than 400,000 people. It has spawned the world’s largest refugee and displacement crisis, forcing around 5.6 million people to flee the country, with another 6.1 million displaced within Syria. Nearly 11.1 million people—around 60 percent of the population—need humanitarian assistance. About half of those affected by the refugee crisis are children. Half the children have never lived a day without war. Their life expectancy has fallen 13 years. More than half a million children under the age of five in Syria suffer from stunting due to chronic malnutrition. Nearly 2.45 million children in Syria and a further 750,000 Syrian children in neighbouring countries are out of school. According to a recent report by World Vision, the war has cost the Syrian economy a massive $1.2 trillion in lost GDP. Worse is yet to come with 60 percent of the population likely to face hunger this year as the cost of an average food basket rose by over 230 per cent in the last twelve months.
Russia Reveals Total Number Of Soldiers Killed In Syria, Blasts "Morally Bankrupt" US Policies -- The First Deputy Chairman of the Defense Committee of the State Duma, Andrei Krasov, announced that 112 Russian soldiers were killed during the entirety of the armed conflict in Syria, according to Sputnik Arabic.The deputy’s statements came during a meeting with the State Duma Committee for Health Affairs, during which he said:"According to recent military data provided by the Russian Ministry of Defense, about 112 soldiers have been killed in Syria since the beginning of the armed conflict."This figure is far lower than the over 260 Russian armed forces deaths put forth by non-state monitoring groups like the anti-Assad Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR).The Russian military officially entered the war in Syira on September 30, 2015 and have since established a number of bases across the country, including its main installation at the Hmemim Airport in Latakia.Among the most prominent field achievements made by the Syrian forces, with the support of Russia, was the lifting of the three-year-long siege on the city of Deir Ezzor, which was imposed on the administrative capital by the Islamic State (ISIS/Daesh).Furthermore, the Syrian Arab Army was able to retake a large amount of territory in the central part of the country that was occupied by the Islamic State since 2015; this included the ancient city of Palmyra (Tadmur) and the strategic Al-Sha’er Gas Fields. While the Syrian conflict has witnessed a significant decrease in violence since 2015, clashes are still ongoing in the central part of the country, where the Islamic State has reemerged.
U.S. Government Turns Somalia Into Failed State to Steal Its Oil for Shell and Exxon-Mobil - ‘United States foreign policy in Somalia has always sided with the wrong side.” That’s how Mohamed Haji Ingiriis, a young Somali historian studying for his doctorate at Oxford, summarized Washington’s legacy there in an interview with CovertAction Magazine. Instead of promoting what it claims to—peace, stability, “nation-building”—the U.S. government, Ingiriis elaborates, keeps Somalia “wartorn,” a “failed state.” The Somali people pay the cost—the ultimate cost, in thousands upon thousands of cases—as a result. But not everyone loses.Petroleum industry analysts call Somalia “promising,” “one of the last truly unexplored oil frontiers.” And major firms are keen to profit there. Shell and ExxonMobil, for example, paid Mogadishu $1.7 million in 2019 for 30-year rights to offshore blocks, and Somalia launched “its first offshore oil and gas exploration licensing round” last year to attract other companies. Developments like these suggest Somalia’s business climate is improving, after decades of conflict made it an unattractive, if not unviable, investment site. The International Monetary Fund and World Bank recently heralded the country’s financial reforms, for example, citing its Petroleum Act, oil production sharing agreements, and related measures as key developments.But if Somalia is open for business, it is a victory for state violence. Because to create a legal and political landscape in which oil firms can profit, the perpetually weak, unpopular Somali government had to fight to extend its reach beyond Mogadishu in order to secure control of new territories at the expense of Islamist militants like al-Shabaab. In this fight, the Somali government and its allies—Ethiopia and the U.S.—have brutalized the Somali public.Mogadishu officials, in their latest National Development Plan, explain that al-Shabaab “diminish[es] prospects for development activities.” The group has threatened oil and gas drilling projects in Somalia’s Puntland region, and, through repeated attacks, forced a change in routes for a crude oil pipeline running from Uganda to the East African coast. Disruptions like these alarm the U.S. government as well, because oil is one of Washington’s core concerns on the continent.
Biden administration to enforce Trump-era sanctions on Iran oil shipments - A key tenet of the prior Trump administration's crackdown on China and Iran was to punish those Chinese companies caught transferring sanctioned Iranian oil, which was often done through 'ghosting' or at other times offshore ship-to-ship transfers in order avoid detection. Since President Biden took office there's been wide reports that China's 'illicit' imports of Iranian oil have soared, resulting in critics and Iran hawks charging the White House with "turning a blind eye" in terms of sanctions enforcement based on existing laws on the books, also as Biden is seeking a path back to engagement with Iran on the US rejoining the JCPOA nuclear deal.This week a senior Biden admin official has admitted in comments to FT that such banned Iranian oil exports to China have been increasing "for some time now" as Beijing continues to be Tehran's lifeline for circumventing oil sanctions, which has been ongoing for years now. China has also played a major part in keeping Venezuela's oil exports afloat. But now, as FT reports Wednesday "The Biden administration has told Beijing it will enforce Trump-era sanctions against Iranian oil as shipments from the Islamic regime to China have soared, a senior US official said."Despite the White House still saying it's "prioritizing" re-entry into the nuclear deal, efforts which have been stalled thus far as Tehran is demanding the easing of sanctions as a first step, the senior official revealed to FT: "We’ve told the Chinese that we will continue to enforce our sanctions.""There will be no tacit green light," the official added, but enforcement might take the form of what's dubbed these "secondary sanctions" targeting Chinese companies caught transferring Iranian oil. However, it remains the possibility that these too could ease assuming Washington and Tehran re-enter talks. The senior official described to FT further that this could theoretically come as "either as part of a mutual set of steps or as part of a full return into compliance" with the JCPOA. "Ultimately, our goal is not to enforce the sanctions; it is to get to the point where we lift sanctions and Iran reverses its nuclear s teps."
Indian farmers’ agitation against Modi’s pro-agribusiness laws continues for fourth month -The agitation by hundreds of thousands of Indian farmers against the pro-agribusiness laws adopted by Narendra Modi’s Hindu-supremacist Bharatiya Janatha Party (BJP) government is now well into its fourth month. Tens of thousands of farmers and their supporters remain camped on the outskirts of the national capital Delhi, as they have been since a massive government-ordered security operation blocked their entry into the city at the beginning of their “Delhi Chalo” (Let’s go to Delhi) protest in late November. The Modi government has laid the groundwork for a violent crackdown aimed at breaking up the farmers’ protest. Seizing on clashes between protesting farmers and police during a tractor rally in Delhi on Republic Day, January 26, the government ordered Delhi police to erect war zone-style barricades around the farmers’ encampments, virtually imprisoning the protesters. The Delhi police are under the direct authority of Amit Shah, the Home Minister and Modi’s chief henchman. The three laws open India’s agricultural sector to domination by giant multinational and domestic agribusiness concerns. Farmers worry that the legislation will enable international investors and powerful corporate interests to seize control of their land and dictate production and prices. In addition to the laws’ repeal, the farmers are demanding legal guarantees that the minimum support pricing (MSP) system will not be dismantled. The MSP gives farmers a guaranteed minimum price for certain staple crops. Modi and Shah are anxious to bring a quick end to the farmers’ agitation, which has served as a rallying point for mass opposition to the government and done much to shatter its corporate media–concocted myth of invincibility. But for the moment they have opted to try to wear the farmers down rather than order a violent security crackdown that could have explosive consequences. One consideration is the impact a clash between security forces and farmers would have on the state assembly elections being held in five states, including West Bengal and Tamil Nadu, next month. However, the government’s biggest fear is that a state security crackdown on the protesting farmers would serve to galvanise mass social anger within the working class and escape the control of the bourgeois opposition parties and trade unions. This fear has been fuelled by a recent upsurge of protests and strikes by workers against the Modi government’s pro-investor reforms, of which the farm laws are a part. About 1 million bank employees throughout India began a two-day strike yesterday against the Modi government’s plans to privatise public sector banks. On two occasions during 2020, on January 8 and November 26, tens of millions of workers participated in one-day general strikes against the BJP government’s pro-investor reforms and austerity measures. The second national strike also demanded emergency assistance for the hundreds of millions whom the government left to fend for themselves during its ill-prepared COVID-19 lockdown. Recent months have also seen a series of strikes and protests involving workers in the public and private sectors, including coal miners, health care staff, and Toyota car assembly and auto parts workers. But the working class has been prevented from intervening independently in the current political situation and providing leadership to the struggles of poor farmers and agricultural labourers by the treacherous policies of the Indian Stalinists and their affiliated unions. The Communist Party of India (Marxist) or CPM and the Communist Party of India (CPI) are endeavouring to keep the working class on the sidelines, while urging the farmers to place their hopes in the Congress Party, till recently the Indian ruling class’s preferred party of government, and other right-wing parties.
Paraguay’s health care system collapses as government tries to quell protests - Protests continue across Paraguay demanding the ouster of the fascistic administration of President Mario Abdo Benítez over its refusal to take measures to contain a massive surge of COVID-19 infections. In recent days, however, the crowds have significantly diminished, largely due to the collapse of the health care system. The government continues to oppose the demands by demonstrators and doctors associations, including the Pneumology Society, for a return to lockdown measures, including the shutting down of all nonessential activities and schools. The surge in cases since early February has been exponential, with the seven-day average rising from 700 daily infections to 1,730. According to Our World in Data, Paraguay has the highest rate of new infections in the world, with 44.6 percent of COVID-19 tests coming out positive. On Sunday, the specialist in infectious diseases Tomás Mateo Balmelli raised the prospect that, given the current trend, the health care system will remain “collapsed” for the rest of the year. He pointed to the dangers of a rise in flu and Dengue cases, as well as the new and more transmissible coronavirus variants. Several health care experts have suggested that the recent surge is being dramatically worsened by the new strains from Brazil, after thousands of Paraguayans traveled there for vacations. The rapid surges in Brazil, Paraguay and much of Europe, fueled by the new variants, are a major warning for the rest of the world. The surge has saturated ICU beds in Paraguay’s public hospitals and led to shortages of medicines, which have in turn increased the death rate to 25 a day. At the same time, infections have translated into guaranteed bankruptcies for working class families. On Sunday, in unprecedented scenes, the broadcaster GEN interviewed long lines of family members of patients outside the public hospitals, as they waited for doctors to send them on frantic searches for the medicines needed to save their loved ones. While appreciative of the care by the medical staff, a woman whose uncle is being treated for COVID-19 at the Clínicas Hospital said the family has spent about 10 million guarani ($1,520) out of pocket in one week of intensive care. This is the equivalent of more than two years of the average salary in the private sector in Paraguay, the second poorest country in South America.
Russia gives Twitter one month to remove banned content or be blocked -An official at a Russian telecommunications watchdog warned that Moscow will block Twitter in one month unless the platform complies with demands to remove banned content. "Twitter has not properly responded to our requests. If the things go the same way, it will be blocked out of court in a month," Vadim Subbotin, deputy head of Roskomnadzor, told the Interfax News Agency. Twitter declined to comment in response to the Russian warning. Subbotin’s comments escalate an ongoing battle between Russia and Twitter. Last week, Russia announced it would slow down Twitter’s upload speeds if the platform didn’t follow the Kremlin’s demands for the content to be taken down. Roskomnadzor alleged the social media platform had not taken down more than 3,000 posts containing banned content including information regarding drugs, child pornography and increasing suicide among minors. A Twitter spokesperson at the time said the platform's policies already outline a range of prohibited behavior including content that involves child sexual exploitation or promoting suicide or self-harm. “Let us be clear — we have a zero-tolerance policy regarding child sexual exploitation, it is against the Twitter Rules to promote, glorify or encourage suicide and self harm, and we do not allow the use of Twitter for any unlawful behaviour or to further illegal activities, including the buying and selling of drugs," the spokesperson told The Hill last week. Russia’s decision to slow down Twitter's upload speeds came after authorities in the nation sued Twitter and other social media platforms regarding decisions to keep up certain posts about February’s protests over the detention of opposition leader Alexei Navalny.
Germany: Open schools, day-care centres and businesses increase risk of new coronavirus variants- New daily coronavirus infections are rising steadily again in Germany, as well as in France, Poland, Austria, Denmark and the Netherlands. Previously, the numbers of infections and deaths had fallen to a level corresponding to the peak of the first wave. The R-value, which indicates the incidence of infection eight to 16 days ago, is currently back at 1.26 (compared to 0.96 only three days ago). Although only 7 percent of the population has received an initial vaccination and of these people only one in two is fully immunised, the federal and state governments are systematically lifting the remaining protective measures. In this way, they are setting the course for mass fatalities that goes far beyond what has happened so far. The widespread and comprehensive reopening of primary schools three weeks ago has resulted in the incidence rate among primary school children officially exceeding the average rate for the population as a whole for the first time. Among 0-to-four-year-olds, the incidence rate has risen from 48 to 60 in 100,000 within one week, according to the RKI’s current situation report. Among five-to-nine-year-olds, the incidence rose from 54 to 72 and among 10-to-14-year-olds from 51 to 62. In the German capital Berlin, the incidence rate among children under four years of age has more than doubled in the past fortnight. Among five-to-nine-year-olds, it rose from 41 to 77 and in the 10-to-14-year-old age group from 32 to 75. Robert Koch Institute (RKI) head Lothar Wieler described the increase in cases of infection among the under-15s since mid-February as “very rapid.” At the same time, he noted that more outbreaks were currently being observed at day-care centres than in the period before Christmas, when a wave of 1,000 deaths per day occurred. A map compiled by a teacher from North Rhine-Westphalia, providing a geographical overview in which reports from parents and teachers are entered, lists a total of 147 “school clusters” for the period “from February 2021,” including 58 infection clusters with “3 to 9 infections” and at least five mass outbreaks “with 10 or more infected persons.” In the same period, 110 “day-care clusters with mutated virus strains” were reported.
Spain’s Labor Office Hit by Massive Ransomware Attack As Unemployment Hits Four-Year High - Spain’s employment service (SEPE) was hit by a ransomware attack last Tuesday that paralysedall of its online processes. The attack forced the suspension of virtually all activities at the organisation’s 700+ offices, including telephone assistance. Employees were ordered to turn off their computers and revert to using pen and paper. For the last five working days they have been unable to process any request for personal information or manage new registrations of dismissed workers, job seekers or requests for benefits. Things are only just beginning to return to some semblance of normality today. The Ryuk ransomware virus used in the attack is famed for targeting large, public-entity Microsoft Windows cybersystems. It encrypts data on an infected system, rendering the data inaccessible until a ransom is paid in untraceable bitcoin. According to El País, the Ryuk strain used to target SEPE is more virulent than former strains. It can even infect computers that are switched off. Prior victims of Ryuk attacks include US newspapers such as the LA Times and hospitals and schools in the US, Germany and the UK. In this case the victims are among the most vulnerable in society — those who have lost their jobs or whose jobs have been temporarily suspended. In Spain, home to the highest unemployment rate in the Euro Area, they are legion. In total, 2.73 million people depend on SEPE for funds, including my wife who is currently furloughed. SEPE is responsible for processing unemployment and furlough claims and payments. Long before last week’s attack, it had already been stretched to breaking point by the sheer number of applications for furlough payments in the early months of the virus crisis. At the height of last year’s lockdown some 4.5 million people were on furlough or receiving self-employed assistance. That number steadily declined as many returned to their jobs, reaching just under a million in February. But the dole queue has grown steadily, reaching a four-year high of 4.08 million in February. That’s the equivalent of 16.1% of the working population. It’s more than a million less than the historic peak registered in 2013, when the unemployment rate hit 26%. But almost a million people are currently furloughed and don’t count as “unemployed.” Many of their jobs will end up being destroyed. The outlook is particularly bleak for Spain’s youth, who already bore the brunt of the last crisis. Many of the best and brightest have since left the country for greener pastures. Yet despite suffering one of the worst brain drains in Europe, the official jobless rate for those under 25 still remains above 40% — the highest level in Europe. The 30-39 age group also lost ground during the post-crisis years. Many of the young Spaniards that do have work aren’t earning enough money or don’t have enough job security to rent an apartment. This may partly explain why Spain has become a squatter’s paradise.
Poland goes into near-lockdown as COVID-19 pandemic accelerates – Poland will close most public venues this Saturday for three weeks, as the rapidly growing number of new daily coronavirus cases threatens the country’s already overwhelmed health care services, Health Minister Adam Niedzielski said Wednesday. On the day of the announcement, the country noted 25,052 new infections, a 44 percent jump on the same day last week, Poland’s health ministry said in its daily report; 52 percent of the cases are of the more infectious British variant. There were 453 fatalities, up 13 percent over last week. "The main reason for the development of this situation and its acceleration is the British mutation of the coronavirus," Niedzielski told reporters. Poland started clamping down over the last two weeks as the country entered the third wave of the pandemic, introducing tougher measures in two regions, However, the surge is now forcing the government to impose national measures to keep the health system from being overwhelmed, Niedzielski said. Under the new rules that go into effect on Saturday, shopping malls will close except for essential stores like groceries or pharmacies. Cinemas, theaters and other cultural institutions will close. Hotels, swimming pools, ski slopes, fitness centers and other sports venues will also shut down. Poland will also suspend classes for pupils in the first three classes of school — the only ones who had been attending school. That puts the country’s entire education system back online. The government also asked companies to keep employees at home if possible. "We have to limit mobility and the transmission of the virus," Niedzielski said. Still, those measures fall short of the curfews and lockdowns in place in many other EU countries. Niedzielski said that further restrictions might be necessary if the situation does not improve. “If extending restrictions to the entire territory of Poland does not put an end to the epidemic, or at least slow down the third wave, then the next steps will be a typical lockdown, where we will close everything completely,” Niedzielski said. Some experts have criticized the government’s response to the third wave. “Apart from lockdown, [the government] hasn’t proposed anything new. That is not an active fight against the virus. We also do not test on a mass scale,” Paweł Grzesiowski, an expert with Poland’s doctors association NIL, told private broadcaster TVN24. Poland has recorded 1,956,974 coronavirus cases since the pandemic began in the country of 38 million a year ago. The number of fatalities has reached 48,032.
France announces soft new virus restrictions in Paris region (AP) — The French government backed off Thursday from ordering a tough lockdown for Paris and several other regions despite an increasingly alarming situation at hospitals with a rise in the numbers of COVID-19 patients. Instead, the prime minister announced a patchwork of new restrictions while reducing the national curfew by one hour. Getting large doses of fresh air is being encouraged, meaning that people living in the Paris region and in the north of the country can walk as long as they like in a day, but within a 10-kilometer (6-mile) radius of their homes and with a paper authorizing the stroll. Stores, however, will feel the pinch with all non-essential outlets — but not bookshops — closing down. And travel between regions is forbidden without a compelling reason. Nothing will change at schools, which are to remain open, but sports activities will now be allowed. Prime Minister Jean Castex announced the new rules, which will take effect as of midnight Friday and last for at least four weeks. He referred to “massive new measures” to “slow down (the virus) without locking down people.” “I also know the deep wish of many of you to enjoy the outdoors, since the crisis has gone on for one year and Spring is coming,” Castex said. He also announced that the French would be able to get inoculated with the AstraZeneca vaccine starting Friday afternoon — and that he himself will be getting a shot “to show we can have complete confidence.” Castex is making for himself an exception to the age rule, moving to the front of the line of those awaiting vaccinations, currently reserved for people 75 and older or with serious health concerns. France and some other countries briefly suspended use of the vaccine over fears of blood clots, and are resuming it after the European Medicines Agency gave its green light earlier Thursday.
France conducts first military exercises in space - The French military will carry out drills to test the capabilities of its Space Command in tackling threats to its satellites. The exercises are part of France's strategy to become the world's third-largest space power.France launched its first military exercise in space this week to evaluate its ability to defend its satellites and other defense equipment from an attack.The exercises are a "stress-test of our systems," said Michel Friedling, the head of France's newly created Space Command, adding that they were "a first for the French army and even a first in Europe."The exercise, codenamed "AsterX" in memory of the first French satellite from 1965, will be based on 18 simulated events in an operations room."A series of events appear and create crisis situations or threats against our space infrastructure, but not only this," Friedling told reporters from the Space Command headquarters in Toulouse in southwest France.During the drill, the French military will monitor a potentially dangerous space object as well as athreat to its own satellite from another foreign power possessing a considerable space force.The scenario is based on a crisis between a state with space capabilities and another that has a military assistance agreement with France.The new US Space Force and German space agencies are taking part in the French exercises which began on Monday and will last until Friday. The French Space Forces Command, Commandement de l'Espace (CdE) was created in 2019 and is set to have 500 personnel by 2025.Investments in the space program are set to reach €4.3 billion ($5 billion) in the same six-year period — a fraction of what is being spent by the US and China."Our allies and adversaries are militarizing space... we need to act," Defense Minister Florence Parly had said in 2019. France also planned to develop anti-satellite laser weapons and to strengthen surveillance capabilities in an area that it believes could become a major theater of confrontation between powers on Earth.
Oman, Qatar to be added to England's travel red list amid coronavirus threat - Oman and Qatar have been added to England's red list of countries, meaning a ban will be put on commercial and private planes travelling from those countries from Friday. Ethiopia and Somalia were also added to the red list, which also includes the UAE, while Portugal (including Madeira and the Azores) and Mauritius will be removed. How 'red list' ruling has decimated demand on Dubai-Heathrow air route The move aims to protect England against new variants of coronavirus at a critical time for the vaccine programme, a statement said. With over 24 million vaccinations delivered in the UK so far, the move will help to reduce the risk of new variants – such as those first identified in South Africa and Brazil – entering England, it added. From 4 a.m. on Friday, visitors who have departed from or transited through Oman and Qatar in the previous 10 days will be refused entry into England. Only British and Irish citizens, or those with residence rights (including long-term visa holders), will be allowed to enter and must stay in a government-approved facility for 10 days. During their stay, they will be required to take a coronavirus test on day two and day 8. "The government has made it consistently clear it will take decisive action if necessary to contain the virus and has taken the decision to add these destinations to the red list," the statement said. Oman Air intends to rollout vaccine passport in "near future" "The government continues to work with the hospitality sector to ensure it is ready to meet any increased demand – with over 58,000 rooms on standby, which can be made available to book as needed," it added. British nationals currently in the countries on the red list should make use of the commercial options available if they wish to return to England.
Much of Europe tightens anti-pandemic rules as virus surges (AP) — Tighter restrictions aimed at reining in surging coronavirus infections took hold in much of Italy and parts of Poland on Monday, while in France, Paris risks being slapped with a weekend lockdown as ICUs near saturation with COVID-19 patients. In line with an Italian government decision late last week, 80% of schoolchildren, from nursery through high schools, were locked out of classroom starting on Monday. Ever-mounting numbers of ICU beds occupied by COVID-19 patients, steadily rising daily caseloads and infection transmission predominantly driven by a virus variant first discovered in Britain have combined to make Italian Premier Mario Draghi’s new government apply “red zone” designation on more regions, including, for the first time since the color-tiered system was created last fall, on Lazio, the region including Rome. In red-zone regions, restaurants and cafes can do only takeout or delivery, nonessential shops are shuttered and residents must stick close to home, except for work, health or shopping for necessities. Over the weekend, many hair salons extended hours to handle last-minute customers, and crowds thronged shopping streets, parks and seaside promenades before the crackdown took effect. Draghi on Friday promised an quick infusion of pandemic aid to shuttered businesses. Beyond the commercial aspects, parents voiced concern for children shut out of classrooms. “They have little interaction now with their friends, they have to celebrate their birthdays alone,″ said Marco Pacciani as he strolled through a Rome park with his young son. In Poland, amid a sharp spike in the number of new infections and of hospitalized COVID-19 patients, restrictions were tightened in two more regions, including the capital, Warsaw, and a western province that borders Germany. Two other provinces were already under restrictions. Under the heightened measures, hotels and shopping malls have to remain closed, as do theaters, cinemas, fitness clubs and sports facilities. Schoolchildren ages 6-9 will have a combination of in-class and remote instruction.
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