Bullard says Fed should tack "hawkish" in next couple of meetings - (Reuters) - The U.S. Federal Reserve should "tack in a more hawkish direction" over its next couple of meetings to prepare in case inflation does not begin to ease, St. Louis Federal Reserve bank president James Bullard said on Tuesday. "If inflation happens to go away we are in great shape for that. If inflation doesn't go away as quickly as many are currently anticipating it is going to be up to the (Federal Open Market Committee) to keep inflation under control," Bullard said on Bloomberg Television. Bullard, who will be a voter on the Fed's policy next year, repeated his projection that the Fed will need to raise rates twice next year. Key price measures are rising at the fastest pace in decades, and while many Fed officials expect that to slow on its own the issue remains unresolved. New data for October on import and export prices showed both exceeding forecasts and rising by the most since May. Both continue to show inflation pressures for goods ranging from meat to motor vehicles running well above pre-pandemic trends. "The inflation rate is quite high," Bullard said. "It behooves the committee to tack in a more hawkish direction in the next couple of meetings so that we are managing the risk of inflation appropriately." Bullard said that could include trimming the Fed's monthly bond purchases at a pace of $30 billion per month instead of the current $15 billion "taper," ending purchases as of March instead of June and opening the door to a possible rate increase that much sooner. Fed officials have said they don't want to raise the target interest rate from the current near zero level until the taper is complete - but that could be open for debate as well if the Fed wanted to convey a more aggressive stance against inflation, Bullard said. The central bank could also let its balance sheet start to shrink, by not reinvesting maturing bonds, as soon as the taper is finished, he said.
As inflation surges, Fed to debate faster taper, earlier rate hikes (Reuters) - Federal Reserve policymakers are publicly debating whether to withdraw support for the U.S. economy more quickly to deal with surging inflation, with one of the central bank's most influential officials signaling on Friday that the idea will be on the table at the Fed's next meeting. It was just this month that the Fed decided the economy was strong enough to begin to trim its $120 billion in monthly asset purchases, put in place earlier in the pandemic to push down on borrowing costs and boost the recovery. The plan would phase out all bond-buying by mid-2022. Since that meeting, the economy has gained speed, with reports showing more than half a million jobs added in October, retail sales surging, and consumer inflation notching its biggest annual increase in 31 years. "I'll be looking closely at the data that we get between now and the December meeting, and it may well be appropriate at that meeting to have a discussion about increasing the pace at which we are reducing our balance sheet," Vice Chair Richard Clarida said at the San Francisco Fed's 2021 Asia Economic Policy Conference, noting that he and many of his colleagues see upside risks to already high inflation. "That will be something to consider at the next meeting. Earlier Friday, Fed Governor Christopher Waller called for a the Fed to double up on its wind-down of bond purchases Link finishing it by April to make way for a possible interest-rate hike in the second quarter of next year. Waller and St. Louis Fed President James Bullard, who earlier this week called for the Fed to end its bond purchases by March, have been at the forefront of policymakers pushing for an accelerated timeline for tightening. "All shocks tend to be transitory and fade away. By this logic the Fed should never respond to any shocks, but sometimes it does, as it should... appropriate monetary policy responds to these inflation movements," Waller said. Clarida's suggestion Friday that a quicker taper could be discussed at the Fed's next policy meeting suggests the idea is gaining traction within the Fed. After his remarks, interest-rate futures trading reflected rising bets that the Fed will begin to raise rates by June and lift them twice more by the end of the year. There is still no consensus within the Fed to quicken the taper. San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly earlier this week urged her colleagues to remain patient. Supply-chain disruptions are the main culprit behind higher inflation, she argued, and as those get worked out, inflation will recede; raising rates now would only slow progress in the job market and hurt millions of Americans. Chicago Fed President Charles Evans on Thursday also said he believes the Fed should stick to its taper plan. But even he, among the Fed's most dovish policymakers, acknowledged he is "more open-minded" to raising interest rates next year than he was six months ago. Separately, Atlanta Federal Reserve President Raphael Bostic said Thursday he believes the U.S. central bank could start raising interest rates by the middle of next year, based on his outlook that the economy will be back to full employment by then
Fed is losing credibility over its inflation narrative, Mohamed El-Erian says --The Federal Reserve is losing credibility over its long-standing view that inflation is transitory, according to Mohamed El-Erian, chief economic advisor at Allianz."I think the Fed is losing credibility," El-Erian said Monday. "I've argued that it is really important to reestablish a credible voice on inflation and this has massive institutional, political and social implications."He was speaking to CNBC's Dan Murphy at the ADIPEC energy industry forum in Abu Dhabi, the United Arab Emirates.El-Erian contended that the Fed's inflation stance weakened the central bank's forward guidance and undermined President Joe Biden's economic agenda.He said that people shouldn't forget that those on low incomes are hardest hit by rising consumer prices."So, it is a big issue and I hope that the Fed will catch up with developments on the ground," he added.A spokesperson for the Federal Reserve was not immediately available to comment when contacted by CNBC.Here are Warren Buffett's latest stock bets, including a flooring stock and pharma nameFed Chair Jerome Powell has previously said he expects inflation conditions to persist "well into next year" and conceded it is "frustrating" that supply chain issues are showing no signs of improvement. The Fed has largely stuck to its messaging, however, that rising inflation is largely tied to the coronavirus pandemic and these supply chain problems will pass.The consumer price index, which covers products ranging from gasoline and health care to groceries and rents, rose 0.9% on a monthly basis in October, the Labor Department reported on Nov. 10, significantly higher than expectations. The reading climbed to 6.2% year over year, hitting its highest point since December 1990."We are in this transition of central banks mischaracterizing inflation. The repeated narrative: 'It is transitory, it is transitory, it is transitory.' It is not transitory," El-Erian said, warning the Fed risked making a major policy mistake."We have ample evidence that there are behavioral changes going on," El-Erian said. "Companies are charging higher prices [and] there's more to come. Supply disruptions are lasting for a lot longer than anybody anticipated. Consumers are advancing purchases in order to avoid problems down the road — that of course puts pressure on inflation. And then wage behaviors are changing.""So, if you look at the underlying behavioral element that leads to inflation, you come up with the conclusion that this will last for a while. And that's even before you talk about the renewed Covid disruptions," he added.
Two Senate Democrats urge Biden not to renominate Powell - Two progressive Democratic senators said they oppose the renomination of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell to a second term, joining Elizabeth Warren in urging President Biden to choose someone else. Jeff Merkley of Oregon and Sheldon Whitehouse of Rhode Island said in a statement released early Friday that Powell lacks a strong commitment to address the growing risks of climate change. Warren, of Massachusetts, has been outspoken in her opposition to Powell. The White House says President Biden will announce his choice to lead the U.S. central bank before the Thanksgiving holiday on Nov. 25. He is choosing between Powell and Fed Gov. Lael Brainard, who is more liberal on climate and other issues. The contingent of liberal Democrats is still too small to derail a nomination if Biden picks Powell, given substantial Republican support for him.
Powell and Brainard both have votes to be Fed chair, Sherrod Brown says - Senate Banking Committee Chairman Sherrod Brown said Tuesday he has no doubt the Senate would confirm either Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell to a second term or his possible successor, Fed Gov. Lael Brainard. “I am certain we would confirm either of them,” the Ohio Democrat said, adding that either could rely on broad Democratic support and might draw some GOP backing. “I am absolutely certain.” President Biden’s decision on a Fed chair nominee could come as early as this week, Brown said. The White House is seeking input from senators to ensure either Powell or Brainard would get the votes needed for confirmation, a person familiar with the process said.
Fighting Biden's dangerous reshaping of the Federal Reserve - French Hill, R –Arkansas --Conservatives across the country should be animated as President Biden prepares to reshape the Federal Reserve in the months to come. He is expected to nominate a chair of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors imminently and, over the next two months, potentially two vice chairs. Counting the vacant seat on the board and Governor Lael Brainard’s potentially empty seat, the president will have the opportunity to reshape over half of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors in four short years. The independence of the Federal Reserve is on the line. The president is under significant pressure from the left-wing of his political party to not reappoint Chairman Jerome Powell. And, if his appointees to other important agencies are any indication, conservatives should be very concerned about the destruction of the Federal Reserve’s independence as a central bank, its mandate for price stability, and its important oversight of the U.S. financial system. It is troubling, for example, that the president nominated law professor Saule Omarova as the Comptroller of the Currency — the nation’s top bank regulator. The professor believes that the Federal Reserve no longer needs to be an independent central bank focused on its congressionally authorized mandates of price stability and full employment. Instead, she favors fully politicizing the Fed; making it a retail commercial bank holding the accounts of all Americans. President Biden’s proposal to weaponize IRS snooping on bank accounts is child’s play by comparison. Professor Omarova, who currently teaches at Cornell University Law School, recently proposed in the Vanderbilt Law Journal to “end banking as we know it.” Professor Omarova’s dangerous views on banking and the role of the Federal Reserve in society make her unqualified for this critical agency appointment to lead the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency and are a troubling leading indicator of what may be acceptable in a Federal Reserve nominee. Additional evidence is provided by House Budget Committee Chairman John Yarmuth (D-Ky.), who told his committee and the nation thatmodern monetary theory (MMT) is perfectly fine. Chairman Yarmuth said, “we absolutely cannot go bankrupt because we have the power to create as much money as we need to spend to serve the American people.” Adherence to MMT guts the independence of the Fed and any restraint on congressionally authorized fiscal policy. Rules of financial prudence and political interference are simply thrown out the window and we are left with a Soviet-style integration of federal budgets and the economy. Appointing governors that would support MMT, the end of the banking system, and the politicization of the central bank will be the end of the rule of law in finance, set the stage for the abandonment of the U.S. dollar as the central anchor in the international monetary system, and open the door to financial failure and rapid inflation.
Inflation Becomes a Political Bitch for Democrats as People’s Mood Sours amid Biggest Fed-Fueled Boom for the Wealthy -By Wolf Richter --Amid the biggest and fastest boom in asset prices ever, thanks to the Fed’s radical money-printing and interest-rate repression, Americans’ mood about the economy has soured dramatically as their pocketbooks are getting hit by inflation.This is now being documented in numerous ways, including by the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment survey, which dropped to its lowest level in a decade, primarily due to inflation worries.The surge in inflation is eating up wage gains, and some things have become horrendously more expensive in no time, such as some food items, new and used vehicles, and housing – those prices have risen far faster than the overall inflation indices. Political polls too have been showing the souring mood and the inflation worries that led to the dissatisfaction with the economy. An ABC poll, released this weekend, was another whack-down for the government and for Democrats – driven by inflation worries.Of the respondents, 62% said that the Democrats were out of touch with the concerns of most Americans – and this is where inflation comes in. But Americans didn’t rate Republicans much better, with 58% considering them out of touch. The economy was among the key factors – the Fed engineered economy with huge asset-price inflation and now massive consumer price inflation that is driving up costs for regular Americans: 70% said the economy is in bad shape, up from 58% in the spring.About half blamed Biden directly for inflation. And his approval rating of handling the economy plunged to 39%. And 55% disapproved of how he handled the economy. For people who make a living with their labor, rather than sitting on a pile of inflating assets, well, they now see the purchasing power of their labor get eaten up by soaring rents, soaring home prices, soaring food prices, soaring new and used-vehicle prices, soaring gasoline prices, soaring costs of health care….The pay increase they got as a promotion for their hard work and productivity just made up for inflation. The 20% pay increase they got when they switched to a better job a few months ago is now getting eaten up by soaring costs. The broad Consumer Price Index (CPI-U) jumped by 6.2% year-over-year. And the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers, the CPI-W spiked by 6.9%, the highest since June 1982:
Dear Democrats: Yes, inflation is a problem --In the past few days, I have seen a spate of articles and tweets from prominent partisans and economists telling Democrats not to worry about inflation, either because it is a transient supply chain issue, or else because Biden’s infrastructure and “Building Back Better” plans will not add to it. I think the evidence is compelling that inflation *is* becoming a problem. Not because of Biden’s plans - which may not add to inflation - but rather because inflation in the three most important things that consumers either notice or care about - gasoline, cars, and houses - is not so transient at all. In particular, I believe that elevated inflation numbers for housing, which is over 1/3rd of the entire metric, is going to persist for at least another year.Let me take these in order. Noticing changes in the price at the pump is the most visible manifestation of inflation. And in the past 18 months, since just after the lockdowns ended, on average the price of gas has increased from $1.77 per gallon to $3.41 one week ago. Not only is this a near-doubling in price, but it is the highest in the past 7 years: Not only that, but energy prices tend to feed through into the wider economy with a 6 to 12 month lag. This is shown in the next two graphs, which show the YoY% change in energy prices (blue) vs. the YoY% change in all other prices (red). Here are the higher inflation 1970s and 1980s: And here is our lower inflation era beginning in 1992: In 1974, 1979, 1991, 1999, the mid-2000s, and 2011, a substantial increase in gas prices was followed by an increase in the overall inflation rate for everything else. It certainly appears that the same pattern is happening now. This suggests that, even if gas prices have peaked for now (quite possibly true), that inflation will continue to seep through into the overall inflation rate for the next 6 to 12 months. Below is a graph of the YoY% change in prices since 1976 in new motor vehicles (blue) vs. the YoY% change in the number of motor vehicles (excluding commercial trucks) sold (red), averaged quarterly (note sales /10 for scale): With the sole exception of the period right after the Great Recession, whenever there has been a surge in prices of new vehicles, YoY vehicle sales have turned negative. Now here is a close-up of the past 5 years, monthly: The big YoY spike in sales this spring is an artifact of the huge decline during the spring 2020 lockdowns. Since then as prices have spiraled higher, now up almost 10% in one year alone, sales have turned negative. The pattern is similar for housing, as measured by the FHFA (dark blue) and Case Shiller (light blue) house price indexes. Big YoY changes in the price of houses, by 5% or more, have typically been followed by a decline in new houses sold as measured by building permits (red, /4 for scale) (note graph subtracts 5% for both house price indexes, so a 5% YoY increase shows as 0, better to show the relationship): The above graph averages permits by quarter to cut down on noise. Below is the same data for the past 5 years, including monthly changes in permits: Permits are now virtually unchanged from one year ago. Unsurprisingly, consumers have decided that now is the worst time to buy a house, car, or major household appliances since the 1980-82 recessions: They’re not wrong, and this isn’t good for Democrats.
Long-dated yields tumble on COVID fears; two-year yields jump on hawkish Clarida (Reuters) - Long-dated U.S. Treasury yields tumbled on Friday as concerns about new lockdowns related to the spread of COVID-19 in Europe increased demand for safe-haven bonds, though the move was likely exaggerated by low liquidity. Two-year yields jumped, meanwhile, after Federal Reserve Vice Chair Richard Clarida took a hawkish tone in a speech and acknowledged that there is an upside risk to inflation. “Even though Europe has been more aggressive than the U.S. in terms of heavy-handed government responses to COVID, there is always chatter about how we could see the same sort of stuff happening over here if cases were to increase significantly,” said Tom Simons, a money market economist at Jefferies in New York, though he added that “I don’t think those fears are necessarily justified.” The size of the reaction, which sent 10-year yields down as much as nine basis points, also indicates impaired market liquidity that analysts say is in part because hedge funds burned by volatile moves in October and November have pulled back from the market. Benchmark 10-year notes last yielded 1.538%, down five basis points on the day, after dropping as low as 1.515%. the lowest since Nov. 10. Two-year yields also jumped on Friday after Clarida said that it "may very well be appropriate" to discuss speeding up the Fed's asset purchase wind-down when it next meets in December. Traders are now pricing in a 67% chance of a rate hike in June 2022, compared with a 54% chance earlier Friday, according to the CME Group's FedWatch tool. The two-year yields were last at 0.505%, after falling to 0.446% earlier in the day.
Q4 GDP Forecasts: Around 5% to 6% --From BofA: We continue to track 6% qoq saar for 4Q GDP growth. [November 19 estimate] From Goldman Sachs We left our Q4 GDP tracking estimate unchanged on a rounded basis at +5.0% (qoq ar). [November 17 estimate]And from the Altanta Fed: GDPNowThe GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in thefourth quarter of 2021 is 8.2 percent on November 17, down from 8.7 percent on November 16. [November 17 estimate]
Seven High Frequency Indicators for the Economy- These indicators are mostly for travel and entertainment. The TSA is providing daily travel numbers. This data is as of November 14th.This data shows the 7-day average of daily total traveler throughput from the TSA for 2019 (Light Blue), 2020 (Blue) and 2021 (Red). The 7-day average is down 17.9% from the same day in 2019 (82.1% of 2019). (Dashed line) Overall, air travel has been off about 20% relative to 2019 for the last four months (with some ups and downs). The second graph shows the 7-day average of the year-over-year change in diners as tabulated by OpenTable for the US and several selected cities. This data is updated through November 13, 2021. This data is "a sample of restaurants on the OpenTable network across all channels: online reservations, phone reservations, and walk-ins. Note that this data is for "only the restaurants that have chosen to reopen in a given market". Since some restaurants have not reopened, the actual year-over-year decline is worse than shown. The 7-day average for the US is down 3% compared to 2019. This data shows domestic box office for each week and the median for the years 2016 through 2019 (dashed light blue). The data is from BoxOfficeMojo through November 11th. Movie ticket sales were at $151 million last week, down about 29% from the median for the week. This graph shows the seasonal pattern for the hotel occupancy rate using the four week average. The red line is for 2021, black is 2020, blue is the median, dashed purple is 2019, and dashed light blue is for 2009 (the worst year on record for hotels prior to 2020). This data is through November 6th. The occupancy rate was down 13.0% compared to the same week in 2019. This graph, based on weekly data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), shows gasoline supplied compared to the same week of 2019. As of November 5th, gasoline supplied was down 0.7% compared to the same week in 2019. There have been eight weeks so far this year when gasoline supplied was up compared to the same week in 2019 - and consumption is running close to 2019 levels now. This graph is from Apple mobility. "This data is generated by counting the number of requests made to Apple Maps for directions in select countries/regions, sub-regions, and cities." This data is through November 13th for the United States and several selected cities. According to the Apple data directions requests, public transit in the 7 day average for the US is at 112% of the January 2020 level. New York City is doing well by this metric, but New York subway usage is down sharply (next graph). This graph is from Todd W Schneider. Manhattan is at about 41% of normal. This data is through Friday, November 12th. He notes: "Data updates weekly from the MTA’s public turnstile data, usually on Saturday mornings".
U.S. Treasury's Yellen extends debt limit default deadline to Dec. 15 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen on Tuesday extended a deadline for a potential U.S. government default to Dec. 15 from Dec. 3, giving Congress more time to raise the federal debt ceiling as lawmakers also consider a massive social spending and climate bill.Yellen said in a letter to congressional leaders that the adjustment was "based on our most recent information," a reference to Treasury tax collections and cash flow data.She said the Treasury would be able to make a $118 billion transfer to the Highway Trust Fund required on Dec. 15, a month after President Joe Biden's signing of a sweeping infrastructure bill Link on Monday. But the transfer would count against the debt ceiling, as the funds would be invested in non-marketable Treasury securities."While I have a high degree of confidence that Treasury will be able to finance the U.S. government through December 15 and complete the Highway Trust Fund investment, there are scenarios in which Treasury would be left with insufficient remaining resources to continue to finance the operations of the U.S. government beyond this date," Yellen said.She repeated her call for Congress to raise or suspend the debt limit "as soon as possible" to maintain the full faith and credit of the United States.The new estimate gives Democrats in Congress a bit more breathing space as they seek to pass a $1.75 trillion measure to provide new energy tax breaks and fund new benefits for child care, universal preschool and an expanded child tax credit.Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer said on Tuesday that Senate Democrats aimed to pass the Build Back Better legislation before Christmas - a goal that has slipped this fall because of squabbling between centrist and progressive Democrats Link Democrats aim to pass the spending bill without Republican support, but Republicans have vowed to oppose a debt limit increase.
Biden signs $1 trillion infrastructure bill into law -- President Biden on Monday signed into law a $1.2 trillion bipartisan infrastructure bill at a boisterous ceremony outside the White House, sealing a major accomplishment of his first term.Weeks of talks and two trips to the Capitol from Biden culminated earlier this month in a bipartisan vote, with the House passing the bill 228-206. Thirteen Republicans crossed the aisle to support the measure, and six progressive Democrats bucked Biden and party leaders to oppose it.Biden welcomed lawmakers from both parties, from Congress and from state and local governments, to celebrate the passage of the bill and tout what he said were the transformational ways it would improve day-to-day life for many Americans.“My message to the American people is this: America is moving again and your life is going to change for the better,” Biden said in prepared remarks, highlighting provisions for replacing lead pipes, implementing broadband and improving public transit.Biden used the bill signing to highlight a rare instance of bipartisanship at a polarized time in U.S. politics, even as former President Trump and other conservatives suggested that House Republicans who voted for the bill should be challenged in primaries or stripped of committee assignments.“I ran for president because the only way to move our country forward, in my view, is through compromise and consensus,” Biden said. “That’s how our system works. That’s American democracy. And I am going to be signing a law that is truly consequential, because we made our democracy deliver for the people. We compromised. We reached a consensus. That’s necessary.”
Biden signs $1.2T infrastructure package into law - President Biden today signed into law a sprawling bipartisan infrastructure package to make record investments in transportation, the electric grid and water projects. This afternoon’s ceremony kicks off a frenzy at federal agencies charged with implementing the bill, which includes more than $500 billion in new spending. Some projects and reforms are due within months. For federal lawmakers, today’s event culminates more than a decade’s worth of rhetoric and false starts on legislation to infuse the nation’s crumbling infrastructure with a much-needed jolt of investment. “My message to the American people is this: America is moving again,” Biden said in prepared remarks. “And your life is going to change for the better,” he told Americans amid sagging approval numbers. The legislation includes $65 billion for energy and the electric grid, $7.5 billion for electric vehicle charging infrastructure, and $15 billion for lead drinking water pipe replacement (E&E Daily, Nov. 8). “Too often in Washington — the reason we don’t get things done is because we insist on getting everything we want,” Biden said in prepared remarks. “With this law, we focused on getting things done.” The infrastructure bill — despite its bipartisan backing — got caught in a legislative hostage situation, with progressive Democrats withholding their votes unless Congress acted on a much larger, partisan budget reconciliation package. Indeed, the reconciliation package was in the minds of lawmakers during today’s ceremony. Sen. Rob Portman (R-Ohio), a top negotiator on the bipartisan bill, reiterated his opposition to the partisan legislation. Portman, on stage with Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (D-Ariz.), another bipartisan bill negotiator, said of the infrastructure measure: “This is what can happen when Republicans and Democrats decide we’re going to work together to get something done." House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.), Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) and Vice President Kamala Harris, in their own remarks at the White House, were bullish on passage of the budget reconciliation plan. “This legislation, as significant as it is, as historic as it is, is part one of two,” Harris said. “Congress must also pass the ‘Build Back Better Act.’” The infrastructure bill also funds a series of clean energy demonstration projects for carbon capture, energy storage and advanced nuclear technologies. Additionally, it sets aside $6 billion over five years for a new Department of Energy credit program meant to keep struggling nuclear reactors afloat.
Group aligned with House GOP leadership targeting nine Democrats on spending vote - A group aligned with House GOP leadership is targeting nine Democrats in a $2 million ad buy ahead of a vote on the party’s social spending package, urging them to oppose the legislation. The American Action Network (AAN) will run television and digital ads targeting Democratic Reps. Dan Kildee (Mich.), Ed Perlmutter (Colo.), Josh Harder (Calif.), Chris Pappas (N.H.), Tom Malinowski (N.J.), Stephanie Murphy (Fla.), Andy Kim (N.J.), Elaine Luria (Va.) and Abigail Spanberger (Va.), urging them to vote against the social spending package. The group cites the increases in taxes and spending as reasons why the lawmakers should vote against the legislation. All nine Democrats being targeted by the group are also considered “vulnerable Democrats” by the National Republican Congressional Committee for the 2022 midterms. The party’s fundraising arm says it is targeting those lawmakers and 61 others ahead of next year’s elections. The push from AAN comes as congressional Democrats are looking to put the finishing touches on their behemoth $1.75 trillion social spending package, dubbed the Build Back Better Act, and send it to President Biden’s desk. Many in the party were pulling for the House to approve the package earlier this month, alongside the bipartisan infrastructure bill, but that possibility was rejected due to internal clashes within the Democratic Party. A coalition of moderates refused to hold a vote on the bill unless they had a score from the Congressional Budget Office (CBO), which was not yet completed. Lawmakers and top administration officials, however, are now pulling for the House to approve the legislation this week through budget reconciliation, which would buck a potential filibuster by only requiring a simple majority vote for passage. Approval of the package would deliver a significant win for Democrats and Biden especially, who has seen slumping poll numbers in recent weeks due in part to rising prices nationwide and COVID-19 issues lingering as the holidays approach.
CBO to release Build Back Better score by Friday -The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) said Monday that it expects to release a full cost estimate of House Democrats' social spending and climate package by the end of the day Friday. The announcement comes as House Democrats are aiming to vote on the Build Back Better spending bill this week. A group of moderates has said they want more information about the bill's cost from the CBO prior to voting. Five House moderates — Reps. Ed Case (D-Hawaii), Josh Gottheimer (D-N.J.), Stephanie Murphy (D-Fla.), Kathleen Rice (D-N.Y.) and Kurt Schrader (D-Ore.) — struck a deal with progressives earlier this month that allowed the House to pass the bipartisan infrastructure bill that President Biden is signing Monday. As part of the agreement, the moderates said they committed to voting for the social spending package once they receive information from the CBO, but no later than this week. The White House has said the bill is fully paid for. The moderates said in their statement earlier this month that if the CBO's estimates are inconsistent with the White House estimates, they "remain committed to working to resolve any discrepancies in order to pass the Build Back Better legislation." The CBO had released six estimates of portions of the bill last week, and released another two estimates of bill sections Monday. The office said it expects to release estimates of the remaining bill sections by Friday, including the key portions of the bill from the House Ways and Means Committee and the House Energy and Commerce Committee. “If we can get it done before then of course we will. But certainly by the end of Friday we'll have the entire estimate,” CBO Director Phillip Swagel said at an event hosted by the Bipartisan Policy Center and Yahoo! Finance on Monday afternoon.
'It's time to vote': Dems itchy to finish big spending bill - E&E News - Congressional Democrats are confronting several obstacles this week to moving a $1.75 trillion climate and social spending package, despite claiming some momentum from the recent passage of a landmark infrastructure package and successful global climate talks. House Democratic leaders said before last week’s recess they hoped to pass the centerpiece of President Biden’s climate agenda when they returned this week. But a push by centrists to get a full accounting of the bill’s cost from the Congressional Budget Office before voting makes the timing of a vote this week on the budget reconciliation bill very uncertain. “We are on a path to be further fortified with numbers from the Congressional Budget Office,” Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) wrote in a letter to her caucus over the weekend, without promising a vote this week. Pelosi said the CBO is “moving expeditiously,” noting several portions of its budget estimate have been completed and three additional reports are due today. Thus far, she noted, the CBO analyses have shown costs projections are in line with the White House’s own reviews, which show the bill paying for itself — a requirement of a handful of House centrists. CBO Director Phillip Swagel said early last week the agency would provide “advance notice” for a release date of a full-cost estimate once it is able. As of last night, the agency had yet to announce when it will be coming. Pelosi led a large U.S. delegation to the United Nations climate talks last week. She said international delegates at the global summit were “overwhelmingly positive” about the infrastructure bill, due to be signed into law today, and have “great enthusiasm” for the pending reconciliation package. Democrats have touted the bills as a one-two punch for taking long-due climate action. The $1.2 billion infrastructure bill contains record investments in the nation’s power grid, electric vehicles and coastal resilience efforts; the reconciliation package will build on that with $550 billion in climate spending, including a methane reduction program. “It’s time to vote,” Select Committee on the Climate Crisis Chair Kathy Castor (D-Fla.) told reporters last week. “We’ve been negotiating, President Biden’s been negotiating for many months now.” Still, it’s clear that the massive spending package will change, in one way or another, in the Senate — that is, if it passes the House this week.
House Democrats Plan to Pass $1.75 Trillion Reconciliation Bill This Week -As President Joe Biden is set to sign the bipartisan infrastructure bill into law on Monday, House Democrats are aiming to pass the reconciliation bill before Congress goes into recess for Thanksgiving. Democrats in the House feel like they’re on the verge of a breakthrough in negotiations this week after plans to tie the infrastructure and reconciliation bills fell apart thanks to the efforts of conservative Democrats and corporate lobbyists. But a Senate vote may still be weeks away as right-wing holdouts Senators Joe Manchin (D-West Virginia) and Kyrsten Sinema (D-Arizona) have yet to commit to voting for the bill. Instead, the Senate will focus on the massive defense authorization bill this week, according to a letter to colleagues from Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-New York). The bill is slated to give the Pentagon $725 billion for next year, spending a total of $778 billion on defense. Still, Democrats say that the reconciliation bill, which could potentially include prescription drug price negotiation, paid leave, child care funding and coverage for hearing under Medicare, will pass before Christmas. It’s unclear which of these proposals will make it through additional negotiations, as Manchin and Sinema, along with conservative representatives like Rep. Josh Gottheimer (D-New Jersey), have already altered the bill nearly beyond recognition over the past few months. Meanwhile, President Joe Biden is scheduled to sign the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act this afternoon, a bill that progressives and experts say is inadequate to address the infrastructure and climate issues that the nation faces. In hopes of boosting his approval ratings, Biden will sign the bill at a signing ceremony. Despite being a supposed win for the president, the infrastructure bill has not yet delivered the approval boost that officials have hoped for; a Washington Post-ABC News poll conducted just as Congress passed the infrastructure bill found that Biden’s approval ratings are continuing a months-long downward trend, with only 41 percent of those polled saying that they approve of Biden’s job performance. That same poll largely found majority support for the bipartisan infrastructure and reconciliation bills. Sixty three percent of those polled said they supported the infrastructure bill; 58 percent said they were supportive of the reconciliation bill. Throughout this year, polling on various forms of both bills had similar results, showing that most Americans supported the investments and the original $3.5 trillion price tag. Thanks to months of negotiations from Manchin and Sinema, the reconciliation bill has been cut in half to $1.75 trillion over 10 years — meaning that reconciliation bill spending per annum will amount to a little under a fifth of the spending that is slated for defense over the next fiscal year. Despite successfully slashing the reconciliation bill, however, Manchin and Sinema have not yet committed to voting for the bill. Even though Manchin has already gotten the Clean Electricity Payment Program thrown out, successfully sabotaging the country’s main mechanism to cut emissions over the next decades, he reportedly still has reservations about the climate portions of the bill. The coal baron has said that he won’t support any proposals that would regulate the fossil fuel industry. He is now working to get a proposal to regulate methane out of the bill, even though Democrats already shoved a $775 million oil-and-gas subsidy into the methane proposal to appease him.
House reconciliation vote could slip to Saturday - A House vote on the Democratic reconciliation package could stretch into the weekend to await an official cost estimate from the Congressional Budget Office, senior Democrats said Monday night. The CBO, the nonpartisan scorekeeper, announced earlier Monday that it would produce its “score,” or price tag for the sweeping tax and spending package, by the end of the day Friday. Democratic leaders had delayed a planned Nov. 5 vote because a handful of moderates wanted to ensure the CBO’s score aligned with preliminary White House estimates. The moderates had agreed to vote this week even if the full score wasn’t finished, but Democrats seem content waiting now that the CBO has promised it will be ready. Leaders told members during a Democratic Steeing and Policy Committee meeting Monday night they would hold the vote once the score was made public. Assistant Speaker Katherine M. Clark, D-Mass., said that if the CBO score comes late Friday, the vote would likely be Saturday. “We’re hoping sooner,” said Rep. Jan Schakowsky, D-Ill. She said the vote could come as early as Wednesday or as late as Saturday, depending on when the CBO finishes its work. “We’re now sure that we’ll have the entire bill, all the titles, done by the end of Friday,” CBO Director Phillip Swagel said at a virtual forum Monday hosted by the Bipartisan Policy Center. “If we can get it done before then, of course, we will. But certainly by the end of Friday, we’ll have the entire estimate.” Swagel said he could not yet say whether the estimate will show that the bill pays for itself, as its Democratic backers assert, or would add to annual deficits, as Republicans allege. “We’ll just have to wait because we’re working as fast as we can, knowing the timeline that the Congress is working on,” he said. The White House has estimated the bill would more than pay for itself, producing a modest $36 billion surplus over 10 years. But some independent watchdogs have disagreed. The Committee for Responsible Federal Budget estimated the bill would add about $200 billion to deficits over a decade. The chief difference between the two forecasts has centered on a provision designed to beef up IRS tax enforcement. The White House says an $80 billion investment in the IRS would generate a net of $400 billion in new revenue over 10 years from taxes that would otherwise go uncollected. But Swagel cast doubt on that estimate Monday, saying previous work by his agency found such an enforcement effort would yield only about $120 billion in net new revenue.
Chuck Schumer says Senate aims to pass Biden Build Back Better plan by Christmas -Senate Democrats hope to pass President Joe Biden's social safety net and climate plan before Christmas and put the finishing touches on their agenda before next year's midterm elections can stifle progress. The House aims to approve the $1.75 trillion economic package later this week. The Senate then plans to take up the legislation after it returns from a Thanksgiving recess."The [Build Back Better Act] is very important to America, we believe it's very popular with Americans, we aim to pass it before Christmas," Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer told reporters Tuesday.Democrats have to clear several hurdles to pass a bill that — along with the $1 trillion infrastructure package that Biden signed into law Monday — they see as their key to trying to defend their majorities in Congress next year. With the Build Back Better Act, the party hopes to push out a bevy of federal benefits including child-care assistance, a one-year extension of the child tax credit, universal pre-K and expanded Medicare and Medicaid.The challenges start this week. House Democrats need to win over a handful of centrist holdouts who want to see the Congressional Budget Office's long-term budgetary estimate for the bill before they agree to vote for it.The CBO expects to deliver its score Friday. The timeline sets up a House vote by Saturday.Getting the plan through the Senate could prove trickier. As they try to pass the bill with a simple majority through special budget rules, Democrats cannot afford any defections from their 50-member caucus.Conservative Democratic Sen. Joe Manchin, D-W.V., has indicated he will try to strike four weeks of paid leave from the House package. He has also expressed concerns about moving forward with the bill at all as inflation lingers at stubbornly high levels.Manchin said the coming CBO score could affect his vote."So to be fair for everybody, let's see what the score is, let's see exactly what they're intending to do," he told reporters on Tuesday.
Biden White House claims CBO doesn't have 'experience' to weigh in on Build Back Better agenda -The Biden White House claimed that the Congressional Budget Office doesn’t have the "experience" to weigh in on the president’s Build Back Better agenda.White House deputy press secretary Andrew Bates made the claim while speaking to a gaggle of reporters during an Air Force One flight to Rochester, New Hampshire.The president traveled to New Hampshire on Tuesday to promote his Build Back Better agenda after he signed the $1 trillion infrastructure bill into law a day prior. "The CBO does not have experience analyzing revenue amounts gained from tracking down wealthy tax cheats who are taking advantage of every honest taxpayer," Bates said."Last night, reporters directly asked key Democratic House members — whose views run the gambit, including moderates, liberals, folks in between," he continued. "They universally said this was not an issue at all."Bates also said that the "CBO fiscal data so far lines up" with the White House’s estimates.The CBO is a nonpartisan body that impartially studies the economic impact of legislation proposed to Congress and assigns bills a score. Bates quickly defended his statement online after igniting a firestorm on Twitter Tuesday, posting his own tweets and retweeting accounts in support of his claim.Jesse Lee, who currently serves as the senior adviser for communications at the National Economic Council, also took shots at the Trump administration over the CBO,saying, "We will be in court to force the Administration to disclose their deliberations on undermining/ eliminating the CBO."The tweets from Bates come after the president s igned the $1 trillion bipartisan infrastructure bill into law.
House Passes Biden’s Build Back Better Bill - — The House narrowly passed the centerpiece of President Biden’s domestic agenda on Friday, approving $2.2 trillion in spending over the next decade to battle climate change, expand health care and reweave the nation’s social safety net, over the unanimous opposition of Republicans.The bill’s passage, 220 to 213, came after weeks of cajoling, arm-twisting and legislative legerdemain by Democrats. It was capped off by an exhausting, circuitous and record-breaking speech of more than eight hours by the House Republican leader, Representative Kevin McCarthy of California, that pushed a planned Thursday vote past midnight, then delayed it to Friday morning — but did nothing to dent Democratic unity.Groggy lawmakers reassembled at 8 a.m., three hours after Mr. McCarthy finally abandoned the floor, to begin the final series of votes to send one of the most consequential pieces of legislation in half a century to the Senate.The bill still has a long and difficult road ahead. Democratic leaders must coax it through the 50-50 Senate and navigate a tortuous budget process that is almost certain to reshape the measure and force it back to the House — if it passes at all.But even pared back from the $3.5 trillion plan that Mr. Biden originally sought, the legislation could prove as transformative as any since the Great Society and War on Poverty in the 1960s, especially for young families and older Americans. The Congressional Budget Office published an official cost estimate on Thursday afternoon that found the package would increase the federal budget deficit by $160 billion over 10 years.“It puts us on the path to build our economy back better than before by rebuilding the backbone of America: working people and the middle class,” Mr. Biden said in a statement. He urged the Senate to swiftly pass the measure. The assessment indicated that the package overall would cost slightly more than Mr. Biden’s latest proposal — $2.2 trillion rather than $1.85 trillion.Republicans, who have railed for months against the measure as a costly initiative that would steer the nation toward socialism, wasted little time in promising to try to weaponize it against Democrats in next year’s midterm elections.“This bill would worsen inflation by pumping trillions of dollars in wasteful spending into the economy, give tax cuts to the wealthy, hike taxes on middle-class families and add hundreds of billions to the national debt,” Ronna McDaniel, the Republican National Committee chairwoman, said in a statement that derided the bill, which Mr. Biden has called the Build Back Better Act, as “Build Back Broke.”“Americans will see through their lies, and the R.N.C. will make sure voters don’t forget the Democrats’ failures come next November,” Ms. McDaniel said.The bill offers universal prekindergarten, generous subsidies for child care that extend well into the middle class, expanded financial aid for college, hundreds of billions of dollars in housing support, home and community care for older Americans, a new hearing benefit for Medicare and price controls for prescription drugs.More than half a trillion dollars would go toward shifting the U.S. economy away from fossil fuels to renewable energy and electric cars, the largest investment ever to slow the warming of the planet. The package would largely be paid for with tax increases on high earners and corporations, estimated to bring in nearly $1.5 trillion over 10 years.Savings in government spending on prescription drugs are projected to bring in another $260 billion.The fact that the bill could slightly add to the federal deficit did not dissuade House Democrats from voting for it, in part because the analysis boiled down to a dispute over a single line item: how much the I.R.S. would collect by cracking down on people and companies that dodge large tax bills.
White House stands by claim that reconciliation bill won't add to deficit, despite CBO score The White House maintained that President Biden's "Build Back Better" agenda, which passed the House of Representatives Friday morning and is headed to the Senate, will not add to the deficit — despite the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office score stating the contrary. The CBO estimated Thursday that Biden’s social spending bill will add $367 billion to the federal deficit over the next 10 years, without counting potential revenue from an IRS tax enforcement crackdown that White House officials claim will cover the remaining cost. White House press secretary Jen Psaki on Friday said that many experts on both sides of the aisle have said that the "IRS enforcement is not something that there's a lot of experience in the CBO scoring." "They still scored it, but is undervalued by the assessment of many economists and experts, including people who have been critical of us in the past, who estimate, including former Treasury secretaries of both parties, who estimate there will be savings significantly higher than what is estimated currently," Psaki said. "So our assessment and the assessment by many economists out there is that there will be savings over 10 years will actually reduce the deficit," Psaki added. Psaki went on to say that the White House "can confirm … that there are significant savings that will come from this." "I would point to the fact that there isn't a great deal of history or experience in scoring IRS enforcement," she said again. "That's something that economists across the board have noted. That's something that a leaders on the Hill, Democrats and Republicans have been briefed on for several months now. And that's why it wasn't really a surprise to them and why the vote in part moved forward." "CBO estimates that enacting this legislation would result in a net increase in the deficit totaling $367 billion over the 2022-2031 period, not counting any additional revenue that may be generated by additional funding for tax enforcement," the CBO said in a release. The CBO score raises doubts about the Biden administration’s claim that the $1.75 trillion in spending outlined in a framework agreement for the "Build Back Better Act" is fully covered by offsets included in the bill. Treasury Department and White House officials say enhanced IRS tax enforcement will generate $400 billion in new tax revenue, while the CBO estimates it would generate net revenue of about $127 billion after expenses. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen reiterated the department’s stance on IRS tax revenue after the CBO analysis was published, citing the budget agency’s scores and a separate analysis by the Joint Committee on Taxation. The JCT’s score found the bill was unlikely to add to the deficit, though it did not take the IRS measures into account. "The combination of CBO & JCT’s scores over the last week and Treasury analysis make it clear that Build Back Better is fully paid for, and in fact will reduce our nation’s debt over time through $2 trillion+ in revenue raisers and other savings," Yellen said. The White House began pushing back on the CBO’s findings on the "Build Back Better Act" even before the final cost estimate was released. Earlier this week, CBO Director Phillip Swagel reiterated the agency's stance that enhanced IRS enforcement would raise about $120 billion through 2031, well short of the White House’s $400 billion target. The president's $1.85 trillion package passed the House Friday morning, despite opposition from Republicans and lingering questions about the White House’s claim that the cost of its policies will be fully covered. The vote was 220-213 with Rep. Jared Golden, D-Maine, the only Democrat breaking with his party to oppose the bill. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif, aimed to vote on the bill Thursday night but House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy, R-Calif., delivered a marathon, scathing floor speech, that lasted more than eight-and-a-half hours and forced the vote to Friday. He said Democrats are "out of touch" with ordinary Americans as he railed against the bill.
Fresh Hell: Build Back Better* (*Terms, Conditions, and Exclusions May Apply) --Once upon a time, in the distant reaches of summer, Democrats unveiled a $3.5 trillion spending package that would, as we’ve long-since tired of rehashing, over the ensuing months be gradually shorn of its most tantalizing programs and thus whittled down to a mere $1.85 trillion over ten years in order to make Joe Manchin’s corporate sponsors happy. The bill, which works out on a per-year basis to about a fifth of the Pentagon’s annual budget, passed the House on Friday morning and will now go back to the Senate to be further pared back, all but ensuring that this idyll of liberal ineptitude will segue seamlessly and disastrously into an extended period of Republican scorched-earth rule. But wait, there’s more! At the last minute, Democratsdid manage to sneak a special treat into the package: a $285 billion tax cut that will almost exclusively benefit high-income households! Yes, Democrats want to raise the cap on state and local (SALT) tax deductions, which would, as the Washington Postreports, be “more costly than establishing a paid family and medical leave program, and nearly twice as expensive as funding home-medical services for the elderly and disabled.” And as the nonpartisan Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget notes, a family of four earning $1 million a year and residing in Washington, D.C., would receive ten times as much tax relief next year under the tax cut than a middle-class family would receive from the expansion of the child tax credit. Build back better, indeed!
Democrats plow ahead as Manchin yo-yos -Senate Democrats are preparing to plow ahead with President Biden’s social spending and climate legislation, even as Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) yo-yos over the timeline. With the House passing the social spending and climate bill on Friday, the clock is now ticking in the Senate, where Democrats have no room for error if they are going to be able to get a bill to Biden. Senate Democrats say Senate Majority Leader Charles Schumer (D-N.Y.) wants to pass the bill by the end of the year, even if it pushes up against, or even into, the holidays. “The timeline is to get it done this year. That is clearly Sen. Schumer’s desire, and I think, quite frankly, if there’s a path forward, we stay here until we get it done, regardless of what that date is,” said Sen. Ben Cardin (D-Md.). Sen. Tim Kaine (D-Va.) predicted that the Senate passes the bill and gets it to Biden “in December.” “We’ll work on it, I believe, probably up until Christmas,” he added. Even as Democrats are predicting an end-of-the-year time frame, they don’t yet have a lock on the 50 votes they’ll need to navigate the legislation through a series of procedural landmines. "High senior staff-level" White House officials are in touch with Manchin, according to White House press secretary Jen Psaki, who characterized Manchin and his staff as negotiating "in good faith." "We've been in close touch ... with Sen. Manchin," she said. "That includes answering questions he may have, hearing concerns he may have." Manchin has shifted throughout the week on whether he supports a Christmas timeline. He initially told reporters that he had “concerns” before signaling a day later that he was OK with Schumer’s plan to vote by the end of the year. “I'm not in charge of the timing. Whatever they want to do is fine with me,” Manchin said. But Manchin has been clear that he doesn’t yet support the climate and spending bill. Manchin has taken issue with language related to a tax credit for electric vehicles, though Democrats are continuing to try to figure out a way to address Manchin’s concerns to keep the language in the bill. “I know some of my colleagues have questions about one issue or another, but we’re going to talk to senators. I talk to Sen. Manchin constantly,” said Sen. Ron Wyden (D-Ore.), noting that the clean energy provisions had been “carefully constructed.” Democrats are also still waiting to see if Manchin buys into a plan to combat methane emission after already killing a key plan aimed at incentivizing companies to shift to clean energy.
Elon Musk to Bernie Sanders After Taxing Wealthy Tweet: 'I Keep Forgetting That You’re Still Alive' -- Elon Musk's latest target on Twitter is U.S. Sen. Bernie Sanders, a longtime advocate for taxing billionaires and redistributing wealth. Bernie Sanders tweeted, "We must demand that the extremely wealthy pay their fair share. Period." on Saturday afternoon. The tweet was directed towards his followers, not Musk in particular.One day later, Musk responded to the 80-year-old's Twitter thread saying, "I keep forgetting that you’re still alive" in a tweet.He followed with another taunting tweet an hour later, saying, "Want me to sell more stock, Bernie? Just say the word …"Musk recently sold $1.1 billion in Tesla stock after polling his followers on Twitter about whether or not he should sell 10% of his shares. In a poll tweet that garnered over 3.5 million votes, 57.9% of respondents said yes and 42.1% said no.Tesla became the most valuable American carmaker in 2020, and its current valuation is over $1 trillion, eclipsing veteran car makers such as Ford and General Motors. Musk has now become the wealthiest person in the world and is set to become the first trillionaire in history.
Here's How Elon Musk's Fortune Has Benefited From Taxpayer Help -Elon Musk can thank investors for his staggering net worth of nearly $300 billion. But taxpayers played a crucial role as well.Just how much — or how little — Musk pays in taxes has gotten a lot of attention lately, and even prompted his Twitter poll last weekend that preceded his decision to sell $6.9 billion worth of Tesla stock. There have been calls in Congress for a billionaires' tax that would require at least some minimal payment from wealthy individuals like Musk who often have little in the way of taxable income. Musk has attacked that idea on Twitter.But just how much of his wealth is due to the government support his companies receive is not an easy question to answer. By some measures, little of his wealth is thanks to taxpayers. And in some ways, virtually all of it is.Musk's wealth is based on the value of his companies including Tesla (TSLA), which is only the sixth US company in history to be worth more than $1 trillion, and SpaceX, believed to be the nation's most valuable privately-held enterprise with an estimated value of more than $100 billion.Even so Tesla shares more than triple the value of Toyota's market cap. And Toyota is the world's second most valuable automaker. Tesla's market cap is roughly equal to that of the 12 largest automakers in the world combined.Without taxpayer support, however, neither Tesla nor SpaceX would have survived this long, and investors never would have had the chance to make massive bets on both companies.Don't take our word for it. Ask Musk himself. In a tweet last year, Musk admitted that Tesla nearly was forced to file for bankruptcy as recently at 2019. The stock price that seems unstoppable today had been floundering among investor's justified concern that the company was facing a cash crunch as it had difficulty ramping up production of its Model 3 sedan."Closest we got [to bankruptcy] was about a month ago," he said in that 2020 tweet. "The Model 3 ramp was extreme stress & pain for a long time — from mid 2017 to mid 2019. Production & logistics hell."What Musk didn't say was that one of the keys that kept the company alive was the sale of regulatory credits to other automakers.Environmental regulations require companies that are not meeting emission standards to pay fines or buy credits generated by companies that comply with the rules. And no one had more of those credits to sell than all-electric Tesla.
‘We Want Them to Go Bankrupt’ – WSJ -- Saule Omarova continues to make the case against her nomination to be Comptroller of the Currency, as critics need only to quote her own words. The latest example is a video interview she gave in February in which the Cornell professor opined on “the case for a U.S. national investment authority.”The conversation at one point turned to climate change and its impact on fossil-fuel producers, and Ms. Omarova was on the case. “A lot of the smaller players in that industry are going to, probably, go bankrupt in short order—at least, we want them to go bankrupt if we want to tackle climate change,” she said in the session that was part of the Jain Family Institute’s “Social Wealth Seminar” series. She went on to say “that creates a lot of this sort of loss of jobs, a lot of displacement, and economic fallback that we cannot afford, really,” which is nice of her to concede. Bankruptcy isn’t painless, especially when the government drives you out of business.But then she adds that the response would be to set up a National Capital Management Corporation that would “become a kind of equity investor at that point, taking over management of those companies and basically leading them through restructuring to a new technological basis and to a new technological business model.”So first put private companies out of business “in short order,” then put government central planners to work to restructure them as the political class wants. Give Ms. Omarova credit for candor. Most progressives disguise their real intentions.All of this matters because as Comptroller Ms. Omarova would have enormous authority to regulate banks. It’s clear from this interview that one of her policy ambitions is to deny capital to certain companies that she wants to go bankrupt. Senators will have to decide if they want the Comptroller to be a one-person systemic risk to the banking system.
Democrats are set to leave immigrants in the lurch again --The House may soon vote on Democrats’ $1.75 trillion budget reconciliation bill, with provisions to shield undocumented immigrants living in the US from deportation and relieve long visa backlogs.But like many of the immigration proposals from the last few decades, these new, critical immigration fixes appear unlikely to actually become law. So why is this latest round of immigration reform proposals probably doomed? Two reasons: because of the structure of the Senate and because, on immigration, identity issues have replaced policy.The American public has never been more supportive of immigration, with a third saying that it should be increased. In 1986, the last time Congress passed a major immigration reform bill, only 7 percent of Americans supported increasing immigration levels. And narrower reforms, such as expanded protections for undocumented people already in the US, have been found to have majority support.But despite that growth in public support, the House and Senate haven’t been able to reach bipartisan agreement on immigration in decades. Though comprehensive immigration reform bills passed one chamber in 2007 and 2013, they ultimately failed in the other. And while the House has passed bipartisan legislation addressing narrower immigration issues over the last couple of years, those bills have yet to gain traction in the Senate.This has led to a Democratic insistence on trying to use the budget reconciliation process to address immigration, which would bypass the need for Republican support. So far, those efforts have failed. But Democrats haven’t given up on it yet.As part of their social and climate spending package, known as the Build Back Better Act (BBB), Democrats initially sought to create a path to citizenship for millions of undocumented immigrants living in the US. That plan was rejected by the Senate parliamentarian Elizabeth MacDonough, who is tasked with determining what can and cannot be passed via budget reconciliation.Reconciliation allows bills to pass the Senate with a simple majority — which Democrats have by one vote — but for a provision to be included in a reconciliation package, it must have a “more than incidental” impact on the budget. A pathway to citizenship, MacDonough said, would be a “tremendous and enduring policy change that dwarfs its budgetary impact.” Democrats then proposed giving people who entered the US illegally prior to 2010 a pathway to green cards. MacDonough also nixed this plan.This has led to Democrats’ plan C. Under the latest draft of the bill, undocumented immigrants would be given temporary protection from deportation through what is called “parole” for a period of five years. Those who arrived in the US prior to 2011 — numbering anestimated 7 million — could apply for five-year, renewable employment authorization.The bill would also recover millions of green cards that went unused in the years since 1992. Under current law, any allotted green cards not issued by the end of the year become unavailable for the following year. In 2021, the US failed to issue some 80,000 green cardsdue to processing delays, and those cards have now gone to waste. The bill also allows some people who have been waiting to be issued a green card for at least two years to pay additional fees to bypass certain annual and per-country limitations and become permanent residents years, if not decades, sooner than they would have otherwise. And the bill preserves green cards for Diversity Visa winners from countries with low levels of immigration to the US who were prevented from entering the country on account of Trump-era travel bans and the pandemic.
It's time for Congress to get Medicare drug pricing reform right--After a three-year debate and delay in delivering patients much-needed relief from high out-of-pocket prescription drug costs, Congress finally appears ready to pass drug pricing legislation. These reforms are critical. However, elected officials must avoid relying on policies that discriminate against certain groups of patients or threaten advances in research for the most challenging health care conditions. Let’s start with the good parts of the proposed legislation. Many older adults face excruciating decisions at the pharmacy counter, where they often are deciding between paying for their medications and other basic expenses, such as food and rent. Medicare is the only major insurer in the U.S. that lacks an out-of-pocket maximum. These challenges are not only a pocketbook issue, but research shows they can significantly impact health outcomes and mortality. Reversing these negative trends must be the key outcome of prescription drug pricing reform. The reconciliation bill pending in the House includes a $2,000 annual cap on beneficiary out-of-pocket expenditures in Medicare Part D, as well as the ability to pay for any costs below that amount through zero-interest payment installments. A multitude of patient groups support these reforms, which will be a game-changer for older adults. There are also key changes, such as eliminating copays for all vaccines recommended by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) for Medicare beneficiaries and Medicaid patients residing in non-expansion states (individuals in expansion states already benefit from this as a result of the Affordable Care Act). These changes will improve health, reduce out-of-pocket costs for beneficiaries and help prevent costly hospitalizations because of medication non-compliance or diseases that are preventable through vaccination. However, the bill also includes misguided proposals. Congressional leaders continue to advance direct negotiation in Medicare — in this case, a rebranding of price setting — that would establish a maximum price. If companies are unable to meet the established price, then beneficiaries will not have coverage for those drugs. While the bill would limit this to a small list of drugs in the near term, the precedent would be set to expand it later. These policies follow on the coattails of the Trump administration’s Most Favored Nation model that would have copied prices from other economically-advanced countries to use here, as well as congressional consideration of applying the Veterans Affairs pricing and formulary to Medicare and the commercial population.
Judge rejects Sidney Powell's challenge to Pentagon's vaccine mandate --A judge on Friday rejected ex-Trump lawyer Sidney Powell’s challenge of the Pentagon’s vaccine mandate.Powell’s Texas-based group, dubbed Defending the Republic, filed a lawsuit in October on behalf of 16 active-duty service members “in support of their right to refuse” the COVID-19 vaccine. The lawsuit named Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin, Health and Human Services (HHS) Secretary Xavier Becerra, acting Food and Drug Administration (FDA) Commissioner Janet Woodcock, Secretary of the Air Force Frank Kendall, Secretary of the Navy Carlos Del Toro and Secretary of the Army Christine Wormuth as defendants.The plaintiffs argued that the vaccine mandate imposed “unconstitutional conditions by forcing Plaintiffs to choose between violation of their constitutional rights or facing life-altering punishments,” and argued that the FDA’s approval of the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine was unconstitutional.They said the vaccine mandate was invalid because it did not go through required “notice-and-comment rulemaking."The lawsuit specifically asked the court to block the Pentagon from implementing the mandate and compel the FDA to retract its approval of the Pfizer vaccine.U.S. District Judge Allen Winsor on Friday, however, ruled that the plaintiffs’ lawsuit did not reach the “extraordinary burden of showing the mandate lacks any rationality.”He said there was a slim chance that the service members’ assertion regarding the “notice-and-comment rulemaking” would stand because the vaccine mandate was announced one day after the FDA granted full approval to the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine.“On the merits, the plaintiffs haven’t made a substantial showing that the FDA acted without a reasonable scientific basis,” Winsor, a Trump appointee, wrote in the ruling. “The FDA is entitled to substantial deference because drug licensing decisions involve ‘scientific determination[s]’ within the FDA’s ‘area of special expertise.’” The Pentagon announced in August that it would be mandating COVID-19 vaccines for all service members, after the Pfizer shot received full approval.
Pentagon says Oklahoma National Guard must follow vaccine mandate - The Pentagon can require Oklahoma National Guard members to get the COVID-19 vaccine, despite the state’s highest-ranking military official insisting he will not mandate that members be inoculated, the Defense Department’s top spokesman said Monday. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin “has the authorities he needs to require this vaccine across the force, including the National Guard,” press secretary John Kirby told reporters. “It is a lawful order for National Guardsmen to receive the COVID vaccine. It is a lawful order,” Kirby later said. “Refusing to do that, absent an approved exemption, puts them in the same potential [for punishment] as active-duty members who refuse the vaccine.” Austin in mid-September mandated that all uniformed personnel get vaccinated for the coronavirus, although the deadline to do so varies by branch. Last week, however, the newly appointed commander of the Oklahoma National Guard, Army Brig. Gen. Thomas Mancino, wrote in a memo that no member of the Oklahoma National Guard will be required to get vaccinated. Mancino further wrote that “no negative administrative or legal action will be taken” against guardsmen who refuse to get vaccinated. Oklahoma Gov. Kevin Stitt (R), who has vocally opposed vaccine mandates, said Wednesday he appointed Mancino to serve as the state’s adjutant general and National Guard commander, though he still has to be confirmed by the state Senate. Stitt earlier this month also sent Austin a letter asking him to suspend the Pentagon’s vaccine mandate for members of the Oklahoma National Guard. Kirby said Austin had not reached out to Stitt but will “respond appropriately.”M
The ruling against Biden’s private-sector vax mandate shows it’s indefensible --Employers and working Americans got good news on Friday: They likely won’t have to deal with President Biden’s cockamamie workplace vaccine dictate. A federal appeals court suspended his attempt to mandate the shots at private-sector workplaces with 100 or more employees. Under Biden’s order, to take effect Jan. 4, employees who refuse the jabs must submit to weekly testing at their own expense or lose their jobs.Vaccinations are not required to collect welfare or food stamps or to come across the southern border and apply for asylum. Just to work. Go figure.Justifying the mandate, Biden said his “patience is wearing thin” and “too many people remain unvaccinated for us to get out of this pandemic.”But a three-judge panel of the Fifth Circuit Court of Appeals slammed Biden’s end-justifies-the-means approach. The Constitution limits what the federal government can make people do, even in emergencies. It’s in the public’s interest, Judge Kurt Engelhardt wrote, to protect “our constitutional structure” and “the liberty of individuals to make intensely personal decisions according to their own convictions — even, or perhaps particularly, when those decisions frustrate government officials.”
The U.S. surgeon general says blocking vaccine rules creates a ‘setback’ for public health. -Dr. Vivek Murthy, the U.S. surgeon general, said on Sunday that if courts continue to block the Biden administration’s efforts to soon compel large companies to require a Covid vaccine or face weekly testing, it would be “a setback for public health.”A federal appeals court issued a ruling on Friday that continued to block the administration’s rule, saying the federal agency that drafted the order had “grossly” exceeded its purview.The Occupational Safety and Health Administration, an agency within the Labor Department, issued a rule this month that companies with 100 or more employees must put a vaccine mandate in place by Jan. 4 or comply with weekly testing, as well as mandatory masking in December.The administration’s attempts — which could affect 84 million private-sector workers, 31 million of whom were believed to be unvaccinated — have met with considerable resistance. A diverse group of states and business organizations immediately contested the order and the Court of Appeals for the Fifth Circuit in New Orleans issued a stay. The ruling by a three-judge panel on Friday affirmed the stay, turning aside a challenge by the Justice Department.On “Fox News Sunday,” Dr. Murthy said that vaccine mandates are well-established and highly successful in achieving more widespread vaccination. Schools, the military and workplaces such as hospitals have long required vaccines. Many companies have leapt ahead of a federal order, he noted, and imposed one on their own employees.At the heart of the vaccine mandate strategy, he said, is the creation of “safer workplaces for workers, for customers and to increase vaccination rates overall, because that’s ultimately how we’re going to end this pandemic.”But Ken Paxton, the attorney general of Texas, one of the plaintiffs that challenged the mandate, said on the same news program that the ruling was a victory against the Biden administration’s attempt at what he has called “bullying” of businesses. Texas employers, he has stated, should be allowed to make their own decisions about the vaccine.Chris Wallace, the host of the program, pointed out that Gov. Greg Abbott of Texas has banned businesses from ordering vaccine mandates. He asked Mr. Paxton to address the seeming incongruity between his attack on the federal mandate and his support of the state ban of individual employers’ mandates. Mr. Paxton refused to say whether he thought that, unlike the federal government, a state had the right to tell a private business what to do. He replied: “The federal government has limited authority.”
COVID cases surge through northern US states before the holiday season begins - On the CBS program “Face the Nation” yesterday, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen made a revealing statement about the impact of coronavirus in the US, staying away from offering assurances that inflation and the current crisis in the job market would normalize anytime soon. She noted, “It really depends on the pandemic. The pandemic has been calling the shots for the economy and for the inflation. And if we want to get inflation down, I think continuing to make progress against the pandemic is the most important thing we can do.” She suggested that any improvement might not take place until next fall—i.e., nearly a year. This is a stunning admission, especially when every political pundit and public health official, from President Biden on down, has been claiming that the United States is rapidly returning to normalcy with the vaccines, or that COVID eventually will become no worse than the common cold, or at least, will no longer arouse public concern. A piece by David Leonhardt in the New York Times titled “How does this end?” makes precisely this claim that the American people have to accept the risks associated with infection because “the virus is unlikely to go away, ever.” Jennifer Nuzzo, an epidemiologist at Johns Hopkins University, speaking with the Washington Post, made a similar assessment in response to the question as to when the pandemic would end. She replied, “It doesn’t end. We just stop caring. Or we care a lot less. I think for most people, it just fades into the background of their lives.” Leonhardt is a professional propagandist for the US ruling elite, spreading the political line of the day, which is that working people must live with the virus because they will have no other choice. Nuzzo is a scientist who is capitulating to the political and social pressure of a financial aristocracy that has never cared for the lives of working people, and wants any display of official concern shut down. Currently, there have been almost 48 million cases of COVID-19 reported across the country, with close to 784,000 deaths thus far. The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation is projecting another 60,000 will perish by the end of the year. The seven-day average of new cases has surpassed 80,000 per day, an 11 percent increase over the last 14 days. Though the daily death toll is currently declining, it remains above 1,100 a day, and the death rate is a lagging indicator in the course of infection, meaning that with rising cases, deaths will also ultimately increase.
Half a million poor and disabled Americans left behind by Social Security --The Social Security Administration's (SSA’s) 1,200 field offices have been closed for the last 20 months, with devastating effects for disabled Americans. Pre-pandemic, more than 43 million Americans were served at SSA field offices; the people most in need of walk-in, on-demand services included people with low- or zero-incomes, housing instability, limited English proficiency, or significant physical or mental disabilities that were themselves barriers to access. With office closures, their inability to file applications and appeals and to correct bureaucratic errors has led to historically unprecedented declines in people receiving Social Security Disability Insurance (SSDI) or Supplemental Security Income (SSI) disability benefits. In fiscal year (FY) 2021, SSA's awards of SSDI benefits to disabled persons and their family members were down 25 percent relative to FY 2019. SSI disability awards, granted to people without much work history, were down even more, with a 30 percent decline. Had SSI awards continued at the pre-pandemic level, there would have been 280,000 more SSI awards over the last two fiscal years. In the pre-pandemic years of FY 2017-2019, SSDI awards were declining only modestly; had that trend continued, there would have been 270,000 more SSDI awards in the last two fiscal years. Even accounting for the fact that some SSI recipients also receive SSDI, these numbers suggest that the operational difficulties facing SSA since the pandemic began have resulted in about 500,000 fewer Americans being awarded disability benefits. SSA admits that this awards decline is a major problem, and its own internal analysis shows the startling effects of field office closures. Only one month after field offices were closed in March 2020, applications for SSI from retirement-age adults, disabled adults, and parents of disabled children were down, respectively, by 55 percent, 32 percent, and 51 percent relative to prior year numbers. The decline in awards has continued to the present period. SSDI and SSI awards for September 2021 were down 34 and 42 percent, respectively, from the figures for September 2019.
White House blames Biden poll numbers on 'COVID fatigue' -- White House press secretary Jen Psaki claimed Monday that President Biden’s public approval rating is falling largely because of the ongoing effects of the coronavirus pandemic rather than the administration’s economic policies or priorities.“Well, we think, one, there’s a couple factors,” Psaki said when asked to explain a Washington Post-ABC News poll published Sunday that showed Biden’s approval rating at 41 percent, with 53 percent of respondents disapproving.“One is people are still — there’s a fatigue from COVID,” the press secretary added. “We see that in poll after poll … People are sick and tired of COVID and the impacts on the economy. We understand that; we’re tired of it too. That’s why this is the number-one priority, [it] continues to be getting COVID under control.” Psaki’s remark recalled Biden’s campaign promise that if elected, he would bring the pandemic to heel. At one point during his second debate with then-President Donald Trump last fall, Biden famously vowed: “I’m going to shut down the virus, not the country.”
Prices will remain high until the Covid pandemic is over, deputy Treasury secretary says - U.S. Deputy Treasury Secretary Wally Adeyemo told CNBC Tuesday that President Joe Biden was doing his best in difficult circumstances. The Covid-19 pandemic, supply chain issues and inflation are just a few of the challenges facing the Biden administration. And to make matters worse for the White House, the latest poll shows the American public is not too impressed with Biden's record in office so far. Only 41% of voters approve of Biden, according to the latest Washington Post/ABC survey released on Sunday, continuing a downward trend in the president's ratings. "I think the president has done everything he can to make sure that we deal with the top issue that faces America, which is a pandemic that has killed hundreds of thousands of Americans and the president has successfully addressed this," he said, speaking to CNBC's Hadley Gamble in Abu Dhabi, the United Arab Emirates. "But we have more work to do in terms of addressing the pandemic and until we fully address the pandemic we're going to face high prices in our economy," he added. Nonetheless, Adeyemo said Biden's Covid vaccination drive and investments made as part of the White House's rescue plan had left America "in a better position" both in terms of public health and economically. Adeyemo cited the low unemployment rate of 4.8% and economic growth of 6% (although the economy expanded at 6.7% in the second quarter, it grew by 2% in the third quarter) as reasons to be optimistic, and said prices are expected to "moderate as the pandemic moderates." "Because of investments we're making today the American economy will be in a position to grow and because of that, the president's economic strategy will be successful." .
Three female senators call NYT coverage of Sinema's clothes 'sexist' -- Sens. Susan Collins (R-Maine), Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska) and Jeanne Shaheen (D-N.H.) on Friday criticized The New York Times for a string of pieces related to fellow Sen. Kyrsten Sinema's (D-Ariz.) clothing. The three female senators pointed to four stories recently published by the Times — one style section piece published last month and three opinion section pieces in the past three weeks from one writer — saying they "cannot imagine The Times printing similar pieces on the fashion choices of any of our male colleagues." "Senator Sinema is a serious, hardworking member of the Senate who contributes a great deal to the policy deliberations before us. Your repeated focus on how she dresses, rather than what she says and does, is demeaning, sexist and inappropriate," the senators wrote in a letter to the editor published Friday.. Asked about the criticism from the senators, Danielle Rhoades Ha, a spokeswoman for The Times, said, "the aim of our Opinion coverage is to invite intelligent discussion from informed people with a diversity of opinions and ideas. We believe in open debate and always welcome reactions such as the Senators' letter to the editor." Sinema acknowledged the op-ed in a tweet, adding: "Work Hard. Be Yourself." In a still largely buttoned up chamber, Sinema's penchant for patterns and bold colors stands out on the Senate floor. It's been the source of a steady stream of articles from several outlets, including attempts to analyze Sinema's politics through her fashion choices. And while it has earned her praise, it has also sparked criticism, including when some progressives interpreted a photo Sinema posted of herself earlier this year wearing a ring that said "“F--- off" as a response to them.
In Response To Soaring Gas Prices, Biden Orders FTC To "Immediately" Probe "Illegal Conduct" By Oil & Gas Companies -Commenting on perhaps the most absurd moment of the Xi-Biden virtual summit, which as we learned last last night, was the US president begging China to release oil from its strategic petroleum reserve (ostensibly because due to opposition by Democrats in the US such as top House Democrat Steny Hoyer, Biden can't do that), Rabobank's Michael Every said that it was "an odd power dynamic when one is a massive energy exporter, and the other a massive energy importer."Alas, it does not appear that China will rush to comply with Biden's demands, and with gasoline soaring and becoming a major political headache for the Democrats ahead of the midterms...... Biden, or rather his handlers, are now scrambling to come up with ways to push gas prices lower.We got the latest lightbulb moment from the administration this morning, when moments ago Biden sent a letter to FTC Chair Lina Khan to call attention to "mounting evidence of anti-consumer behavior by oil and gas companies" alleging that he won't accept "hard-working Americans paying more for gas because of anti-competitive or potentially illegal conduct."It wasn't clear what if any evidence was "mounting."“I do not accept hard-working Americans paying more for gas because of anti-competitive or otherwise potentially illegal conduct,” Biden said, claiming that "gasoline prices at the pump remain high, even though oil and gas companies' costs are declining" and ordered asked the FTC to "consider illegal conduct" which is costing families at the pump, urging the FTC to "immediately" use "all tools" to examine price wrongdoing. No "proof" of any wrongdoing was provided either, although we are confident that Igor Danchenko is busy creating a dossier full of "evidence" to buttress Biden's case.The letter goes on to suggest that while "prices at the pump correspond to movements in the price of unfinished gasoline, which is the main ingredient in the gas people buy at the gas station. But in the last month, the price of unfinished gasoline is down more than 5 percent while gas prices at the pump are up 3 percent in the same period. This unexplained large gap between the price of unfinished gasoline and the average price at the pump is well above the pre-pandemic average."Meanwhile, Biden goes on, "the largest oil and gas companies in America are generating significant profits off higher energy prices... they have announced plans to engage in billions of dollars of stock buybacks and dividends this year."Well... here is the answer: prices are set based on input costs and taxes, which have never been higher. Indeed, one should probably advise Biden that in addition to oil costs, taxes make up a substantial portion of the end cost of gasoline...
Biden's Baffling Oil Policy Faces Backlash From All Sides President Joe Biden and his administration hardly planned for everything that happened this year. In fairness, no administration could have planned for it: soaring oil and gas demand, tight supply, rising prices fueling inflation that has quickly gone from nothing to worry about to the biggest worry for many. Yet that's not the worst of it for the Biden administration. The president came into office with the pledge to set the United States on a course towards a lower-carbon energy future. This would have been a challenging task even under the best of circumstances, the U.S. being one of the biggest polluters in the world. With the energy crunch, the task becomes almost impossible. It is no wonder, then, that when Biden started calling on OPEC to boost crude oil production, nervous about rising gas prices at American filling stations, he instantly attracted accusations of hypocrisy. After all, he was pushing an energy transition agenda, he was clearly not in favor of boosting domestic oil production, and one of the first executive orders he signed was the one that killed the Keystone XL pipeline. The White House's climate envoy, John Kerry, got asked about Biden's energy policy at the COP26 summit in Glasgow last week. How could the president urge OPEC to pump more oil while campaigning for the phase-out of fossil fuels, the media asked Kerry. "He's asking them to boost production in the immediate moment," Kerry said in response, as quoted by the Wall Street Journal. "And as the transition cuts in, there won't be that need as you deploy the solar panels, as you deploy the transmission lines, as you build out the grid." Kerry's statement is in line with Biden's own defense of his latest moves in the energy area. "On the surface, it seems like an irony," Biden said earlier this month, referring to his call on OPEC+ to add more oil production while heading for COP26 to discuss the reduction of global emissions. "But the truth of the matter is ... everyone knows that idea that we're going to be able to move to renewable energy overnight ... it's just not rational." It is an ironic twist that the first year of Biden's presidency is also the first year in which coal consumption in the country is set for a rise since 2014. And it will be a substantial rise: the Energy Information Administration has forecast the U.S. will consume 20 percent more coal than last year. Yet using coal to generate electricity more affordably is a pragmatic move even if it leads to a rise in U.S. emissions. The rise, the administration would probably argue, will be a temporary problem, and once the crunch is over, we'll go back to our low-carbon agenda. Yet this is where the bigger problem flashes a fin. The current energy crunch is not only a result of supply shortages. It is also a result of rising energy demand. U.S. producers appear to be unwilling to ramp up production of crude oil to levels that would lower prices at the pump. Gas producers are having a field day exporting a record amount of their product to Asia, where buyers are looking for a bargain—and U.S. gas is a bargain.
At a tense moment for Canada-U.S. relations, Trudeau travels to D.C. for trilateral talks Prime Minister Justin Trudeau will travel to Washington this week for the first Three Amigos summit in five years — a trilateral meeting with U.S. and Mexican leaders that has been dismissed in the past as high on symbolism and low on substance. The one-day summit on Thursday comes at a challenging time for the Canada-U.S. relationship. The election of U.S. President Joe Biden was celebrated by many in Canada as the dawn of a new era in bilateral relations after the fractious four-year term of his predecessor, Donald Trump. During his campaign, Biden promised a return to "normalcy" and better relations with U.S. allies; the revival of the once-dormant Three Amigos gathering is a sign that the Trump-era froideur is over. But on Biden's watch, a number of new irritants have emerged. Biden, more beholden to progressive elements in the Democratic Party than past presidents, has made climate policy a priority to appeal to green activists. Canada's energy sector is paying a price. In the first week of his presidency, Biden cancelled permits for the Keystone XL pipeline, dealing a multi-billion dollar blow to Alberta's oilpatch. He has done little to stop Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, a Democrat, from trying to shut down Enbridge's Line 5 pipeline — a crucial artery that supplies oil products and natural gas to power huge portions of the Canadian economy. Experts agree its closure would be devastating to Canada — a threat to the continued operation of Toronto's Pearson International Airport and the free flow of fossil fuels to other critical industries. A spokesperson for Biden said this week the White House is awaiting a review by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers before deciding whether to wade into a debate over the future of the controversial pipeline. Labour Minister Seamus O'Regan — who served as the natural resources minister until recently — has said the line's continued operation is "non-negotiable."
NASA wants to fly the obsolete Space Launch System for at least 30 years -NASA recently revealed long-term plans for the Space Launch System (SLS), the monster rocket it has been working on since about 2010. The SLS has cost many billions of dollars, and NASA proposes to launch for the first time in February 2022. NASA would like to commercialize the SLS, fly it once a year for the Artemis Program, and pay half price for the privilege. The space agency wants to do this for at least the next 30 years.Meanwhile, a federal court has thrown out a lawsuit brought by Blue Origin against NASA and SpaceX over the award to Elon Musk’s company for the Human Landing System. Work on the SpaceX HLS, based on the Starship rocket now being developed at Boca Chica, can now proceed. Blue Origin CEO Jeff Bezos was gracious in defeat on Twitter, noting it was “not the decision we wanted, but we respect the court’s judgment, and wish full success for NASA and SpaceX on the contract.”Blue Origin will have another chance when the second-round competition for the HLS occurs. Congress will have to fund that round. With the Blue Origin lawsuit out of the way, NASA and SpaceX can now proceed with the Artemis return to the moon program. Ars Technica reported on how that effort is going: The plan is currently to launch the uncrewed Artemis I mission in February around the moon to test the Space Launch System and Orion. Then, in May 2024, Artemis II will take a crew of three Americans and one Canadian on an epic voyage around the moon — the first such since Apollo 17 in 1972.
Defiant Bannon warns of 'misdemeanor from hell' for Biden - Ex-Trump White House adviser Stephen Bannon threatened to make the charges against him “the misdemeanor from hell” for the Biden administration as he exited his first court appearance after being indicted for defying a congressional subpoena. The Department of Justice on Friday scored an indictment against Bannon after filing two charges of criminal contempt of Congress, saying the former Trump staffer failed to “comply in any way” for a request for documents and a deposition from the House committee investigating the Jan. 6 attack on the Capitol. “I'm telling you right now, this is going to be the misdemeanor from hell for Merrick Garland, Nancy Pelosi and Joe Biden. ... We’re going on the offense,” Bannon, referencing the attorney general who brought the charges against him and the House Speaker, told reporters as he was leaving the courthouse. “They took on the wrong guy this time; they took on the wrong guys.” Bannon surrendered himself to federal authorities Monday and was released without bond, required to turn in his passport and submit to weekly check-ins with the court. Bannon will be arraigned at a Thursday hearing, where he is expected to plead not guilty. Though a misdemeanor, if convicted Bannon faces serious penalties. Each charge carries a minimum of 30 days and a maximum of one year in jail, as well as a fine of $100 to $100,000, meaning Bannon could be fined up to $200,000 and spend as much as two years in jail. The Jan. 6 committee was seeking to speak with Bannon both due to his proximity to former President Trump and his efforts on planning leading up to the Capitol riot, including time spent in the “war room” at the Willard Hotel where the Trump team was organizing. The House voted in October to refer Bannon to the Department of Justice for criminal prosecution, with House Homeland Security Committee Chairman Bennie Thompson (D-Miss.) speculating Bannon would be willing to be a “martyr” for Trump’s cause.
Staley and Epstein swapped 1,200 emails over four years, FT says -Jes Staley exchanged 1,200 emails with Jeffrey Epstein from 2008 to 2012 and the correspondence showed a close relationship between the pair, the Financial Times reported, citing people familiar with the correspondence. The emails between Staley, who was then working at JPMorgan Chase, and Epstein are part of a U.K. regulatory investigation that prompted the banker to step down as chief executive of Barclays. Staley abruptly resigned last week after the Financial Conduct Authority told the bank of the preliminary findings of a multiyear probe into the CEO’s account of his relationship with the convicted pedophile Epstein. Staley dealt with the former money manager for 15 years in his former role as head of JPMorgan’s private bank, and has always said that relationship ended before he started at Barclays in 2015.
How Deutsche Bank botched AML compliance in the Jeffrey Epstein case Most of us would like to think that “character is destiny.” Maybe, but more often biography is destiny. If you know enough about someone’s past behavior, you’re in a good position to predict what they’ll do next. Jeffrey Epstein was accused and convicted of sex trafficking over a period of years. After he was convicted, and despite the bank’s knowledge of his chronic and criminal behavior, Epstein became a client at Deutsche Bank. And then, after he became a client, Epstein tripped multiple red flags during his five-year relationship with the bank. Were the fees generated worth the $150 million fine, attendant legal costs and impugned reputation?We know so much about Epstein’s financial dealings thanks to the July 2020 New York State Department of Financial Services order, which provides a devastating amount of detail on the bank’s long relationship with Epstein. Epstein is referred to in the order as “a wealthy financier with hundreds of millions of dollars in assets and an extensive network of friends and connections that included prominent financial institutions, politicians, royalty, and billionaires.”
A couple convicted of stealing Covid funds is on the run, the F.B.I. says. - When the Covid-19 pandemic began last year, a Southern California man recruited his brother, his wife and many others to use the identities of older people, foreign exchange students who had left the country and dead relatives to apply for $20 million in federal relief funds, the authorities said.The man, Richard Ayvazyan, 43, bought a $3.25 million mansion and filled it with gold coins, luxury watches and imported furniture using the stolen Covid-19 disaster-relief funds, federal prosecutors in California said.In June, Mr. Ayvazyan; his wife, Marietta Terabelian, 37; and Artur Ayvazyan, Mr. Ayvazyan’s brother, were convicted of scheming to fraudulently obtain funding that was meant for people and businesses that had sustained economic losses as a result of the pandemic.In August, as they awaited sentencing at their home in the San Fernando Valley, Mr. Ayvazyan and Ms. Terabelian removed their bracelet monitors and fled, according to the F.B.I. They left their children behind, according to federal prosecutors.On Monday, they were both sentenced in absentia. Mr. Ayvazyan received 17 years in prison and his wife received six. Artur Ayvazyan, 41, was sentenced to five years.
FBI email system compromised by hackers who sent fake cyberattack alert - Hackers compromised the Federal Bureau of Investigation’s external email system on Saturday, sending spam emails to potentially thousands of people and companies with a faked warning of a cyberattack.The FBI said in a statement that the fake emails were sent from the Law Enforcement Enterprise Portal system used to communicate with state and local officials, not part of the FBI’s larger corporate email service.“No actor was able to access or compromise any data or (personally identifiable information) on FBI’s network,” the bureau said. “Once we learned of the incident we quickly remediated the software vulnerability, warned partners to disregard the fake emails, and confirmed the integrity of our networks.”Cybersecurity experts said the fact that the email didn’t include any malicious attachments could indicate the hackers stumbled across a vulnerability in the FBI portal and didn’t have a particular plan to exploit it.
U.S. banks must report hacks within 36 hours, new rule says -Banks must report major cyberattacks to regulators within 36 hours if the incident is likely to disrupt their business, according to a new rule from U.S. regulators. Any “computer security incident” that threatens a lender’s operations, services to customers or the stability of the financial system has to be disclosed to the bank’s primary government watchdog, according to a rule issued on Thursday that is set to go live on May 1. The regulation, approved by the Federal Reserve and other banking agencies, will also extend to companies that provide services to banks. Those firms will be asked to notify their bank clients as soon as possible when disruptions are expected to affect customers for more than four hours.
Senators seek crypto reporting fix as Biden signs infrastructure bill A bipartisan team of U.S. senators is introducing a bill to narrow some cryptocurrency tax reporting rules that were laid out in the infrastructure legislation that’s set to become law on Monday. The new bill, the text of which was obtained by Bloomberg News, seeks to override a provision in the infrastructure legislation that cryptocurrency investors say is overly broad and would stifle growth of digital currencies. “Our bill makes clear that the new reporting requirements do not apply to individuals developing blockchain technology and wallets,” Sen. Ron Wyden, Democrat of Oregon, said in a statement. “This will protect American innovation while at the same time ensuring those who buy and sell cryptocurrency pay the taxes they already owe.”Andrew Harrer/Bloomberg Senate Finance Committee Chairman Ron Wyden, an Oregon Democrat, and Sen. Cynthia Lummis, a Wyoming Republican, wrote the tweak to the rules.
Fed governor urges restraint in regulating stablecoin providers -— Despite the federal government's apparent interest in restricting stablecoin issuance, not all policymakers see eye to eye. That was evident in a speech Wednesday by Federal Reserve Gov. Christopher Waller, who contradicted a recent report by the President’s Working Group on Financial Markets by warning against excessive regulation of stablecoin providers. “While regulations are necessary, they also limit free entry into at least some of the markets in which banks operate,” Waller, a Trump administration appointee, said at a conference held by the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland and the Office of Financial Research. “As a result, regulatory oversight can insulate banks from some forms of direct competition.”
What the President's Working Group got wrong about stablecoins - The Inter-Agency Report on Stablecoins recently issued by the President’s Working Group on Financial Markets is an important milestone that not only presents the Biden administration’s initial policy recommendations for regulating the growing stablecoin market, but also clearly reflects the importance of the stablecoin market in the future of global payments. Unfortunately, the working group simply got it wrong. While well-intentioned, the proposal to limit stablecoin issuance to bank holding companies and their insured depository institution subsidiaries ignores the existence of state money transmitter laws, which already govern nonbank stablecoin issuers, and already address the risks noted in the report.
Ripple Labs wants to limit SEC sway over crypto as legal fight rages - Ripple Labs, which is locked in a bitter court battle with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, has an unsurprising recommendation for Washington policy makers: limit the regulator’s role in policing cryptocurrencies. “The SEC’s approach under the current administration has been hostile,” Stuart Alderoty, Ripple’s general counsel, said in an interview. The agency is “doubling down on regulation by enforcement,” rather than setting clear rules, he added. On Tuesday, Ripple released a paper that calls on regulators, lawmakers and the industry to come up with a framework for overseeing the white-hot market. Ripple, whose XRP token was once the third-biggest cryptocurrency before the SEC sued the company for issuing an unregistered security, warned that a lack of U.S. guidelines was harming innovation and driving businesses overseas.
Congress Is Facilitating “Catastrophic Risk” by Allowing Federally-Insured Banks to Be Owned by Wall Street’s Trading Houses - Pam Martens and Russ Martens ~ We recently read the report conducted by the Special Committee of the Board of Directors of Credit Suisse into how the bank had lost $5.5 billion when the Archegos family office hedge fund that was being financed by Credit Suisse and other Wall Street firms blew itself up this past March. One paragraph in particular caught our attention:“The Archegos-related losses sustained by CS are the result of a fundamental failure of management and controls in CS’s Investment Bank and, specifically, in its Prime Services business. The business was focused on maximizing short-term profits and failed to rein in and, indeed, enabled Archegos’s voracious risk-taking. There were numerous warning signals—including large, persistent limit breaches—indicating that Archegos’s concentrated, volatile, and severely under-margined swap positions posed potentially catastrophic risk to CS. Yet the business, from the in-business risk managers to the Global Head of Equities, as well as the risk function, failed to heed these signs, despite evidence that some individuals did raise concerns appropriately.”(For a more succinct look at the Archegos blowup, see our report: Archegos: Wall Street Was Effectively Giving 85 Percent Margin Loans on Concentrated Stock Positions – Thwarting the Fed’s Reg T and Its Own Margin Rules.)What grabbed our attention in that paragraph from the Credit Suisse report is that the Board of Directors is actually acknowledging that trading positions posed “catastrophic risk” to the bank. What also grabbed our attention is that banking regulators in the United States have been reading this same kind of assessment of catastrophic risk within the mega banks on Wall Street since the financial crisis of 2008, while doing absolutely nothing meaningful to rein it in. Even more striking, banking regulators and Congress continue to allow the majority of the largest trading houses on Wall Street to continue to own federally-insured deposit-taking banks where the taxpayer would be on the hook for bailouts if they blow themselves up.Consider these three paragraphs from the report prepared by the Senate’s Permanent Subcommittee on Investigations after JPMorgan Chase lost at least $6.2 billion gambling in derivatives in London using deposits from its federally-insured bank: “The bank’s reliance on Ms. Drew to police risk within the CIO [Chief Investment Office] was so excessive that some senior risk personnel first became aware of the CIO’s outsized synthetic credit positions from the media. It speaks volumes that the financial press became aware of the CIO’s risk problems before JPMorgan Chase’s Chief Risk Officer. “While the bank’s Chief Risk Officer was apparently left in the dark, by April 2012, senior CIO management was well aware that the Synthetic Credit Portfolio had lost money on most days during the first quarter of the year, had cumulative losses of at least $719 million, and had massively increased the portfolio size with tens of billions of dollars of new synthetic credit positions threatening additional losses. Ms. Drew was so concerned that on March 23, she had ordered the traders to stop trading. Yet in the week following publication of the ‘London Whale’ articles, Mr. Dimon, Mr. Hogan, Chief Financial Officer Douglas Braunstein, and others, gave the impression that the press reports were overblown. On the bank’s April 13 quarterly earnings call, Mr. Dimon referred to the press accounts as a ‘complete tempest in a teapot,’ and Mr. Braunstein stated that the bank was ‘very comfortable with our positions.’ […] JPMorgan Chase is the largest deposit-taking bank in the United States. According to the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), it has 5,135 branch bank offices across the United States accepting insured deposits from moms and pops, small businesses, pension funds and the like. The vast majority of these depositors have no idea that the bank is allowed by Congress and its regulators to make wild gambles in derivatives.The three paragraphs above from the report on JPMorgan Chase are bad enough, but here’s what else you need to know. The “Ms. Drew” that was supposed to be policing trading risk for the bank and was supposed to be policing the derivative traders in London didn’t even possess a trading license herself. That’s illegal at trading houses known as broker-dealers on Wall Street. At broker-dealers, a supervisor must have the proper licenses to oversee traders.
Manchin and Tester Votes in Doubt: Biden’s Ability to Win Confirmation of His Controversial Nominee, Omarova, Just Got a Lot Harder - Pam Martens - President Joe Biden is finding out the hard way that nominees for high office actually need to be vetted by multiple competent people. That clearly did not happen with Biden’s nominee, Saule Omarova, to head the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC), a federal agency that supervises national banks – those operating across state lines.Omarova’s radical statements and position papers will likely come into sharp focus at her confirmation hearing at 9:30 a.m. this Thursday before the Senate Banking Committee.Omarova’s unhinged views have Biden supporters scratching their heads as to how she ever survived the vetting process at the White House. (See Biden’s Nominee Omarova Has a Published Plan to Move All Bank Deposits to the Fed and Let the New York Fed Short Stocks.)Omarova, a Cornell University law professor, essentially has no filter for what rolls off her tongue. Thus, this Thursday’s confirmation hearing is certain to provide more fodder for Biden’s political enemies. Omarova appeared in a 2019 Canadian feature documentary and called the financial services industry in the United States the “quintessential a**hole industry.” The mega banks on Wall Street, such as JPMorgan Chase and Citigroup’s Citibank, are among the national banks that Omarova would oversee as head of the OCC.Over the past week, the right-wing Murdoch news outlets like Fox News and the New York Post have had a field day over comments Omarova made this past February in a video talk for the Jain Family Institute’s “Social Wealth Seminar.” Omarova said that troubled industries such as coal, oil and gas are going to see “a lot of the smaller players go bankrupt,” adding that “at least we want them to go bankrupt if we want to tackle climate change.” A video clip of those comments, posted by the right-wing American Accountability Foundation on Twitter, had received 1.6 million views as of this morning.Those comments are not going to play well with Democratic Senator Joe Manchin of West Virginia, a state heavily dependent on coal for jobs. Senator Jon Tester, a Democrat from another coal state, Montana, has already questioned the suitability of Omarova for the OCC post. If Democrats lose even one vote on Omarova, her confirmation could be derailed as Republicans have already painted her as a Marxist and signaled that they will not vote for her.One of the big puzzles in this mess is why progressive groups continue to push a nominee who is doing so much political damage to the chance for Democrats to hold onto the Senate and House in the midterm elections next year. On November 2, more than 60 progressive groups and watchdog organizations sent a letter to Senator Sherrod Brown, Chair of the Senate Banking Committee that will hold Omarova’s confirmation hearing this Thursday. They avowed their strong backing of her nomination to head the OCC. Her position on climate change appeared to be a crucial element of their support.
ICBA takes unusual step of opposing OCC nominee — A top trade association representing community banks urged U.S. lawmakers to oppose the nomination of Saule Omarova for comptroller of the currency, an unusual rebuke coming just hours before the Senate hears the law professor’s testimony. In a letter sent by the Independent Community Bankers of America and addressed to the leadership of the Senate Banking Committee, the group called Omarova’s scholarship and policy positions “alarming.” "The Independent Community Bankers of America and the undersigned state banking associations, representing thousands of community banks and the communities they serve write to express our opposition to the nomination of Professor Saule Omarova to be the Comptroller of the Currency," the group said.
A bipartisan grilling for OCC nominee — The Biden administration's nominee to lead the Office of the Comptroller took heat from members of both parties, leaving serious questions about whether there are enough votes in the Senate to confirm her. Saule Omarova, a law professor at Cornell University, testified to the Senate Banking Committee Thursday after weeks of criticism from bankers and lawmakers of her past academic writings as anti-business. But Omarova sought to distinguish her work as an academic — including her apparent support for a dramatic restructuring of the banking system — from how she would lead the OCC, saying her focus would be different.
Why Biden's nominee to regulate banks is proving so controversial : NPR - The president's pick to become a top banking regulator doesn't usually attract a lot of interest, but this time is different. President Biden has nominated Saule Omarova, a law professor at Cornell University, to be the next head of the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC), which is responsible for regulating the assets held by more than 1,000 banks. At Omarova's confirmation hearing on Thursday, many Democrats on the Senate Banking Committee lined up in support of her nomination. Progressives have applauded her nomination, seeing in Omarova a person who would bring a tougher approach to banks at an agency that has been criticized for being too friendly with the sector. But there was no indication any Republican on the committee will back her. Omarova's critics say she is a "radical" nominee who wants to nationalize banking.Omarova has attracted unusually personal criticism. At the hearing, Sen. John Kennedy (R-La.) brought up her childhood in the former Soviet Union, and Republicans cited an academic paper she recently wrote proposing a reinvention of the U.S. financial system, which The Wall Street Journal's conservative editorial board argues is proof she hasn't "repudiated her Soviet-era views." Omarova, who came to the U.S. as a university student, and is now a U.S. citizen, strongly denies she holds communist views. She accused her critics of singling her out because she is a woman and a minority. The Office of the Comptroller of the Currency, which has been around since 1863, regulates and supervises banks, from smaller, community lenders to large institutions, including Bank of America, Citibank, and Wells Fargo. Although the OCC is housed within the Treasury Department, it operates independently, and part of its mandate is "ensuring fair access and equal treatment to bank customers."Despite its relatively small size, the OCC has a sizable regulatory footprint. Altogether, the institutions the OCC oversees have assets worth almost $15 trillion. They represent 65% of all "U.S. commercial banking assets," according to the OCC.The OCC has previously come under criticism over perceptions it's too close to the banks it regulates. The comptroller during the Trump administration, Joseph Otting, reportedly referred to banks as his "customers." Omarova is a well known scholar of financial regulation."Saule is widely regarded as one of the top financial regulatory scholars in the world," says Jeremy Kress, an assistant professor of business law at the University of Michigan. "Whether you agree with her, or disagree with her, you can't have a complete debate about current topics in U.S. banking law and U.S. financial regulation without taking into account what Saule has written on the topic."But her research has come under withering attack by some critics.In one paper, Omarova suggests the federal government could offer a bank account to every American through the Federal Reserve. Supporters of that proposal say it would reduce the number of "unbanked" persons significantly. Critics argue it would undermine commercial banks.In another article, she calls for the creation of an agency not unlike the Food and Drug Administration, that would be charged with approving or rejecting new financial products.
BankThink: Fireworks over OCC nominee distract from bigger policy issue | American Banker - Tomorrow, the Senate Banking Committee will hold Saule Omarova's confirmation hearing for comptroller of the currency. Many expect this to be a knock-down, drag-out between the progressive bank-reform agenda and the banking industry's antipathy thereto. This it surely will be, but to watch only these fireworks is to miss the longer-burning fire below: renewed questions about whether banks are public utilities or private companies with unique privileges fully reimbursed by virtue of unduly burdensome regulation. It is by this choice — not Ms. Omarova's most uncertain confirmation — that the future of U.S. finance will be decided. Although Ms. Omarova has surely moved on from the Marxist views of which she is accused based on an early academic paper, she clearly sides with those who think that banking is for public purpose, not private profit. Indeed, according to at least some of her work, banking can't be trusted to banks and thus should be seconded to the federal government or outside experts presumed to be not just objective, but also disinterested in all but the public good. This is not a new view. After the S&L crisis of the 1980s and the subsequent banking debacle in the early part of the next decade, much was made of the subsidy banks were said to enjoy from unique access to FDIC insurance and the Fed's discount window. Bankers strongly disputed any subsidy, but I said then and believe now that banks then indeed enjoyed special-purpose charters that warranted not just tough safety and soundness standards, but also Community Reinvestment Act and other public-welfare obligations.
Former JPMorgan VP links firing to her compliance complaints -A former vice president in JPMorgan Chase’s anti-corruption unit claimed in a lawsuit that she was marginalized, mistreated and fired from the bank for complaining about compliance failures. Shaquala Williams filed suit against JPMorgan Thursday in Manhattan federal court, saying the bank fired her in October 2019 after she raised concerns that the bank may have broken the law by misleading the Securities and Exchange Commission, Justice Department and other regulators about its anti-corruption, anti-money- laundering, economic sanctions and risk governance programs. “In response to Williams’s protected activities, the bank repeatedly subjected Williams to adverse actions,” Williams said in her suit. “Over time, the bank marginalized Williams’s role at the Bank, including removing responsibilities, giving an inaccurate performance review, issuing her a written warning, and firing her.”
A Second Female Lawyer Who Worked at JPMorgan Chase Says Fraud Is Condoned at the Bank – Pam Martens - On Thursday, another female attorney, Shaquala Williams, who had worked in compliance at JPMorgan Chase, came forward. Williams has filed a lawsuit in the U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York with allegations that are so alarming that they should send the Justice Department, the bank’s outside auditing firm and the Audit Committee of the Board of Directors into a frenzy. (See the full text of William’s federal complaint here.) Williams makes numerous, stunning allegations that the bank was falsely reporting to the Justice Department that it was in compliance with the non-prosecution agreement it had reached in 2016 when, in fact, it was simply reporting what the Justice Department wanted to hear while gaming the terms of the agreement.The Justice Department had charged in 2016 that JPMorgan’s Asia subsidiary had through “certain senior executives and employees of the Company conspired to engage in quid pro quo agreements with Chinese officials to obtain investment-banking business, planned and executed a program to provide specific personal benefits to senior Chinese officials in the position to award or influence the award of banking mandates, and repeatedly falsified or caused to be falsified internal compliance documents in place to prevent the specific conduct at issue….”To put it bluntly, the bank was putting on its payroll the children of high Chinese government officials in order to further its business interests in China.In exchange for avoiding prosecution, the Justice Department required the bank to put in place compliance controls around third-party payments. Williams alleges the following was happening inside the bank to subvert those controls:“If properly implemented, invoice controls would ensure that JPMorgan was not funding corruption by labeling corrupt third-party payments as legitimate business expenses.“Williams also raised concerns because the Bank had no requirements for the Compliance group to review invoices for red flags, high risk indicators, or other anomalies that indicate corrupt payments; because the Bank granted many third-party intermediaries exemptions from invoice requirements without documenting or explaining the basis for doing so; because the Bank had no controls to ensure that the entity requesting payment was the same third-party intermediary that had contracted with the Bank; because the Bank had no controls to ensure that the third party intermediary had a contract or other agreement with the Bank before performing the services; and because the Bank could not reconcile actual payments with the invoices…“Williams also raised concerns about JP Morgan’s inaccurate books and records. There were inconsistencies between the TPI payment records and the Bank’s centralized payment systems that feed into its general ledger. For example, a former government official (‘TPI1’) was a high risk JPMorgan third-party intermediary for Jamie Dimon (‘Dimon’), JPMorgan’s Chief Executive Officer. The Bank processed the invoices for TPI1 through the ‘emergency payment method.’ The Bank’s policies made clear that the ‘emergency payment method’ should be used for urgent payments critical to the day-to-day operations of Chase such as emergency utility bills ‘to prevent the lights from going out.’ The TPI1 invoices did not satisfy this standard, thus leaving the payment method open to unchecked corrupt payments and violations of the Bank’s accounting controls, the NPA, SEC Order, SEC rules and regulations, and provisions of Federal law relating to fraud against shareholders. Further, the payments as reflected in the general ledger did not correspond with management’s general or specific authorization for the invoice payments, thereby creating inaccurate records that also constituted violations of the NPA, the SEC Order, SEC rules and regulations and/or provisions of Federal law relating to fraud against shareholders.”
OCC penalizes Chicago bank at center of Manafort bribery scandal -Federal regulators are requiring a small Chicago-based bank to overhaul its operations after its former CEO was convicted of bribery in connection with loans to onetime Trump campaign chair Paul Manafort. The $815 million-asset Federal Savings Bank agreed to make improvements to its risk management controls, its consumer compliance program and its anti-money- laundering protections as part of an agreement with the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency. The agreement, which was made public Thursday, did not mention either Manafort or Stephen Calk, the bank’s former CEO, by name. It also did not list any financial penalty to be paid the bank.
Bond market turmoil as Wall Street speculation reaches new heights - A conference of US economic and financial regulators to be held tomorrow may have more on its agenda than was originally planned as signs of turbulence in financial markets continue to grow. The 2021 US Treasury Market Conference, which is being held virtually, will hear a series of reports from Fed officials, representatives of the US Treasury and the stock market regulator, the Securities and Exchange Commission. The conference, an annual event, was first convened in 2015 following a “flash rally” in the US Treasury market in 2014. Bond prices rose sharply during a 12-minute period, sending yields plummeting, and then reversed with no apparent trigger—an event that was not supposed to take place in the world’s biggest debt market. The agenda for tomorrow’s meeting is to consider “proposals to improve overall market functioning and reliance.” It is being held in the shadow of the events of March 2020 when the Treasury market froze. No buyers could be found for US government debt at one point, an extraordinary occurrence in what is supposed to be the deepest and most liquid financial market in the world. The crisis was only halted through the intervention of the Fed which injected more than $4 trillion into the financial system and initiated a program of buying $120 billion of financial assets a month. At its last meeting the Fed decided to taper its purchases by $15 billion a month. There is uncertainty about what effect this will have under conditions where the rise in inflation over the past months has completely changed the financial landscape. Price rises hit a 30-year high of 6.2 percent for October, the fifth straight month the inflation rate has topped 5 percent. With the Fed’s assurances that inflation is “transitory” having been blown out of the water, there are indications of growing instability. Last week, as the latest inflation figures were announced, yields on the two-year Treasury note climbed nearly 10 basis points—0.1 percent—as bond prices fell in the biggest movement since March of last year. The downward movement went across the board with a government auction of $25 billion of 30-year debt reported to have met only “weak demand” from buyers.
The Post Office at a crossroads - EPI Blog - Politics and special interests, not economic constraints, are what’s keeping the U.S. Postal Service from becoming a hub for affordable banking and other valuable community services in the 21st century. But we’ll need a new regulatory structure and new leadership to move forward.USPS has a public service mandate to provide a similar level of service to communities across the country regardless of local economic conditions. In addition to daily mail delivery to far-flung locations, the Postal Service maintains post offices even in low-income urban neighborhoods and small towns that lack other basic services. The Postal Service is able to fulfill its mission while keeping postage rates low due to economies of scale.Once the fixed costs of post offices and delivery are covered, the additional cost of new services is often minimal. If it weren’t prevented from doing so, the Postal Service could take advantage of underused capacity and build on Americans’ trust in the Postal Service to offer new services to the public while bringing needed revenue to the agency. But first we need to jettison a regulatory framework that protects private-sector rivals at the expense of consumers.The most talked-about expansion idea is a revival of postal banking, though advocates have proposedeverything from in-home delivery of perishable groceries to senior wellness checks. Until postal banking was discontinued in 1967, the Post Office earned a modest fee for administering basic savings accounts, partnering with private banks that paid interest to account holders in exchange for loanable funds. Asproposed by Senator Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio), an updated postal banking system could be paired with broader government efforts to modernize the monetary system.While a growing number of Americans have stopped using cash in favor of debit or credit cards and online bill paying, many others face barriers to accessing a modern payments system. These barriers include bank branch “deserts,” minimum balance requirements, and privacy concerns. As a result, low-income Americans in particular—disproportionately people of color—often end up paying high fees simply to access and safeguard their own funds and conduct simple financial transactions, with many remaining entirely “unbanked.” The average person using paycheck lenders and other alternative financial services pays an estimated $3,000 in fees and interest annually, but even households with bank accounts often face high fees for basic services.Maintaining a secure monetary system that serves as a store of value, a system of accounts, and a means of exchange is a quintessential government service, as basic as providing for defense against military attack. But the government has fallen down on the job while the private sector has encroached—most visibly with cryptocurrencies but also by charging high fees for ATM, check cashing, and similar services. These service fees—and “gotcha” charges like overdraft fees—are an increasing share of bank revenues and contribute to underserved communities’ distrust of banks.Many fees and penalties could be avoided with fast and secure electronic payments and the ability to verify the availability of funds. Big banks already have a private system in place for real-time transactions among themselves, but community banks and households are waiting for the Federal Reserve to set up a public system, a process that has been maddeningly slow. Once this system is in place, the next step is creating secure accounts for anyone who wants them, such as the no-fee accounts accessible via the Postal Service and community banks that Senator Brown proposes.
Flush with capital, FHA resists calls to cut insurance premiums — A key indicator of the finances of the Federal Housing Administration reached a new high for the fiscal year ending Sept. 30, thanks to strong home price appreciation in spite of the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. But despite a 14-year high of 8.03% for the capital ratio of the agency's mutual mortgage insurance fund — stoked by the recovery of the reverse mortgage program — the FHA did not signal immediate plans in its annual actuarial report to cut insurance premiums. The FHA is taking a "cautionary approach" to pricing in light of delinquencies and uncertainty about loans in forbearance, officials said. "The effects of the pandemic on the FHA Single Family insurance portfolio continues to unfold, with over 660,000 loans that remain delinquent," Marcia Fudge, secretary of the Department of Housing and Urban Development, said in a foreword for the report.
With Biden’s FHA nominee in limbo, mortgage market grows restless -— President Biden’s nominee to head the Federal Housing Administration is stuck in limbo as the Senate battles competing priorities, frustrating many in the mortgage industry who are concerned about a lack of leadership at a critical juncture for the agency. Julia Gordon — currently president of the National Community Stabilization Trust, a nonprofit that promotes neighborhood revitalization and housing affordability — wasnominated in June as FHA commissioner. Her nomination hearing before the Senate Banking Committee was held in August. Industry representatives and analysts say it is crucial for the FHA to have a Senate-confirmed leader in place with the housing market still shaky due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Delinquency rates for FHA loans are still above pre-pandemic levels, and most government-backed forbearance plans for borrowers affected by the crisis expire by year-end.
CFPB seeks public feedback on impact of HMDA rule | American Banker - The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau is seeking comment on an agency rule implementing changes to the Home Mortgage Disclosure Act to evaluate whether it is meeting HMDA's stated goals of detecting discrimination in mortgage lending.The CFPB on Tuesday issued a request for information as part of what it called “a voluntary assessment” of whether the 2015 final rule is meeting the objectives of the Dodd-Frank Act, which reformed the mortgage disclosure law. Congress enacted HMDA in 1975 to root out discrimination in mortgage lending.The bureau said the request comes on the heels of an August report that found mortgage lenders charge higher interest rates and deny credit to Black and Hispanic applicants more than white applicants.
HUD: FHA'S 2021 Annual Report Shows Increase in Capital Reserves; DTI Remains Elevated -From HUD: Capital ratio remains above statutory minimum benefitting from rapid home price appreciation and a steady recovery from COVID-19 pandemic delinquencies.The U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) today released its fiscal year (FY) 2021 report to Congress on the financial health of the Federal Housing Administration (FHA) Mutual Mortgage Insurance Fund. In addition to its emphasis on delivering relief options to homeowners financially impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic, FHA continued to deliver on its mission of enabling homeownership for first-time and low- and moderate-income, and households of color.The MMI Fund supports FHA’s Single Family mortgage insurance programs, including all forward mortgage purchase and refinance transactions, as well as mortgages insured under the Home Equity Conversion Mortgage (HECM) reverse mortgage program. The report illustrates that the MMI Fund increased its overall Capital Ratio, ending the fiscal year at 8.03 percent, an increase of 1.93 percentage points over the previous fiscal year. For the first time since 2015, the HECM reverse mortgage program has a strong positive ratio, primarily due to strong national home price appreciation. As the recovery from the pandemic continues, the Fund remains well positioned to withstand future economic events and endure the outcomes from the pandemic induced delinquencies that remain in forbearance or are seriously delinquent.“The strength of the fund is a promising sign and solidifies the important role FHA fulfills in making homeownership a reality for first-time homebuyers and those with lower incomes.” said U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development Secretary Marcia L. Fudge. “This year, our Administration took unprecedented steps to deliver relief to those devastated by the pandemic. Managing the strong fiscal health and performance of the FHA program is a top priority, and I am encouraged to see the MMI Fund remain resilient through the events of the past year. Looking ahead, we will ensure FHA is well positioned to provide broad and equitable access to homeownership, especially for those who have been historically underserved in the mortgage market.”From the report: Credit scores are decent, but DTI ratio remains elevated.Exhibit III-8 above illustrates the distribution of credit scores for borrowers obtaining FHA endorsements. The share of endorsements with credit scores between 620 and 679 increased slightly in from 53.13 percent in FY 2020 to 57.16 percent in FY 2021. The share of endorsements on mortgages with credit scores of 720 or higher decreased from 14.69 percent in FY 2020 to 13.33 percent in FY 2021.
Black Knight: Number of Mortgages in Forbearance Increases Slightly - This data is as of November 16th.From Andy Walden at Black Knight: Mid-November Forbearance Exits Low and Slow In what has become a familiar pattern, the number of active forbearance plans held relatively steady entering the third week of November. According to our McDash Flash daily forbearance tracking dataset, the number of active forbearance plans increased by 2,000 (0.2%) this week. Modest declines among FHA/VA loans (-2,000) and GSE (-1,000) were offset by a 5,000 rise in plan volumes among portfolio and PLS mortgages as plan activity hit its lowest level since mid-August. Start volumes edged higher, driven by an increase in new plans among FHA/VA loans, which hit their highest level since early October.As of November 16, 1.01 million mortgage holders remain in COVID-19 related forbearance plans, representing 1.9% of all active mortgages, including 1.2% of GSE, 3.1% of FHA/VA and 2.4% of portfolio held and privately securitized loans.Overall, the number of forbearance plans is still down by 230,000 (-18%) from the same time last month, with the potential for additional improvements as we enter December. More than 200,000 plans remain with October/November reviews for extension/removal and nearly 300,000 more are slated for review in December – half of which are expected to be reaching their final expirations.
Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey Mortgage applications decreased 2.8 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending November 12, 2021.... The Refinance Index decreased 5 percent from the previous week and was 31 percent lower than the same week one year ago. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index increased 2 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index decreased 2 percent compared with the previous week and was 6 percent lower than the same week one year ago.“Refinance applications decreased for the seventh time in eight weeks, as mortgage rates moved higher after two weeks of declines. Activity has been particularly sensitive to rate movements, and last week’s decline was driven by a drop in conventional and FHA refinance applications, which offset an increase in VA refinance applications. All mortgage rates in MBA’s survey increased, with the 30-year fixed rate climbing to 3.2 percent.” said Joel Kan, MBA’s Associate Vice President of Economic and Industry Forecasting. “Purchase applications increased for both conventional and government loan segments, as housing demand continues to show resiliency at a time – late fall – when home buying activity typically slows. The second straight increase in purchase applications suggests that stronger sales activity may continue in the weeks to come. Despite elevated demand, purchase applications were 5.7 percent lower than a year ago.”...The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($548,250 or less) increased to 3.20 percent from 3.16 percent, with points increasing to 0.43 from 0.34 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value ratio (LTV) loans.
Housing Starts Decreased to 1.520 Million Annual Rate in October -From the Census Bureau: Permits, Starts and Completions: Privately‐owned housing starts in October were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,520,000. This is 0.7 percent below the revised September estimate of 1,530,000, but is 0.4 percent above the October 2020 rate of 1,514,000. Single‐family housing starts in October were at a rate of 1,039,000; this is 3.9 percent below the revised September figure of 1,081,000. The October rate for units in buildings with five units or more was 470,000.Privately‐owned housing units authorized by building permits in October were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,650,000. This is 4.0 percent above the revised September rate of 1,586,000 and is 3.4 percent above the October 2020 rate of 1,595,000. Single‐family authorizations in October were at a rate of 1,069,000; this is 2.7 percent above the revised September figure of 1,041,000. Authorizations of units in buildings with five units or more were at a rate of 528,000 in October..The first graph shows single and multi-family housing starts for the last several years.Multi-family starts (blue, 2+ units) increased in October compared to September. Multi-family starts were up 37% year-over-year in October.Single-family starts (red) decreased in October, and were down 10.6% year-over-year. 
The second graph shows single and multi-family housing starts since 1968.This shows the huge collapse following the housing bubble, and then the eventual recovery (but still not historically high). Total housing starts in October were below expectations, and starts in August and September were revised down, combined.
US Housing Starts Tumble For 2nd Straight Month As Homebuyer Sentiment Crashes - (graphs) After unexpectedly tumbling in September, US housing starts and permits were expected to rebound modestly in October, but the picture was more mixed than hoped for. US housing starts unexpectedly fell for the second straight month (-0.7% MoM vs +1.5% MoM exp) but US building permits rose more than expected (+4.0% MoM vs +2.8%) from the downward revised 7.8% MoM slump in September)... This pushed the Starts SAAR to its lowest since April, and rebounded Permits SAAR from its lowest since August 2020... Single-family Starts fell 3.9% MoM to 1.039mm SAAR - its lowest since Aug 2020 - while Multi-family (rental) unit Starts jumped 6.8% MoM to 470k SAAR... Single-family Permits rose 2.7% MoM while Multi-family unit Permits rose 6.6% MoM... And this is all happening as homebuilder sentiment surges back towards record highs and homebuyer sentiment crashes to new record lows... Graphs Source: Bloomberg
Most Housing Units Under Construction Since 1974 -- The first graph shows single and multi-family housing starts since 2000 (including housing bubble). Multi-family starts (blue, 2+ units) increased in October compared to September. Multi-family starts were up 37% year-over-year in October. Single-family starts (red) decreased in October, and were down 10.6% year-over-year. The second graph shows single and multi-family starts since 1968. The second graph shows the huge collapse following the housing bubble, and then the eventual recovery (but still not historically high). Total housing starts in October were below expectations, and starts in August and September were revised down, combined. The third graph shows the month to month comparison for total starts between 2020 (blue) and 2021 (red). Total starts were up 0.4% in October compared to October 2020. The year-over-year comparison are more difficult at end of 2021. In 2020, starts were off to a strong start before the pandemic, and with low interest rates, and little competing existing home inventory, starts finished 2020 strong. The fourth graph shows starts under construction, Seasonally Adjusted (SA). Red is single family units. Currently there are 726 thousand single family units under construction (SA). This is the highest level since 2007. For single family, most of these homes are already sold (Census counts sales when contract is signed). The reason there are so many homes is probably due to construction delays. Since most of these are already sold, it is unlikely this is “overbuilding”, or that this will impact prices. Blue is for 2+ units. Currently there are 725 thousand multi-family units under construction. This is the highest level since 1974! For multi-family, construction delays are probably also a factor. The completion of these units should help with rent pressure. Census will release data next year on the length of time from start to completion, and that will probably show long delays in 2021. In 2020, it took an average of 6.8 months from start to completion for single family homes, and 15.4 months for buildings with 2 or more units. Combined, there are 1.451 million units under construction. This is the most since 1974. Below is a graph comparing multi-family starts and completions. Since it usually takes over a year on average to complete a multi-family project, there is a lag between multi-family starts and completions. Completions are important because that is new supply added to the market, and starts are important because that is future new supply (units under construction is also important for employment). These graphs use a 12 month rolling total for NSA starts and completions. The blue line is for multifamily starts and the red line is for multifamily completions. Starts have picked up, but completions (red) have turned down - due to the construction delays. The last graph shows single family starts and completions. It usually only takes about 6 months between starting a single family home and completion - so the lines are much closer than for multi-family. The blue line is for single family starts and the red line is for single family completions. The recent gap between starts and completions is due to the construction delays.
NAHB: Builder Confidence Increased to 83 in November - 
The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) reported the housing market index (HMI) was at 83, up from 80 in October. Any number above 50 indicates that more builders view sales conditions as good than poor. From the NAHB: Builder Confidence Up on Strong Demand Even as Supply Side Challenges Persist: Low existing inventories and strong buyer demand helped push builder confidence higher for the third consecutive month even as supply-side challenges — including building material bottlenecks and lot and labor shortages — remain stubbornly persistent. Builder sentiment in the market for newly built single-family homes moved three points higher to 83 in November, according to the NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) released today. “The solid market for home building continued in November despite ongoing supply-side challenges,” said NAHB Chairman Chuck Fowke. “Lack of resale inventory combined with strong consumer demand continues to boost single-family home building.” “In addition to well publicized concerns over building materials and the national supply chain, labor and building lot access are key constraints for housing supply,” “Lot availability is at multi-decade lows and the construction industry currently has more than 330,000 open positions. Policymakers need to focus on resolving these issues to help builders produce more housing to meet strong market demand.”...The HMI index gauging current sales conditions rose three points to 89 and the gauge charting traffic of prospective buyers also posted a three-point gain to 68. The component measuring sales expectations in the next six months held steady at 84.Looking at the three-month moving averages for regional HMI scores, the Midwest rose four points to 72, the South registered a four-point gain to 84 and the West rose one point to 84. The Northeast fell two points to 70.This graph show the NAHB index since Jan 1985.This was above the consensus forecast, and a strong reading.
AIA: "Demand for design services moderates but remains strong" in October Note: This index is a leading indicator primarily for new Commercial Real Estate (CRE) investment.From the AIA: Demand for design services moderates but remains strong: Architecture firms reported increasing demand for design services in October, according to a new report today from The American Institute of Architects (AIA). The ABI score for October was 54.3. While this score is down slightly from September’s score of 56.6, it still indicates very strong business conditions overall (any score above 50 indicates an increase in billings from the prior month). During October, scoring for both the new project inquiries and design contracts expanded, posting scores of 62.9 and 58.0 respectively.“Unlike the economy-wide payroll figures, architecture services employment has surpassed its pre-pandemic high,” said AIA Chief Economist, Kermit Baker, Hon. AIA, PhD. “Staffing continues to be a growing concern at architecture firms and may serve to limit their ability to take on new projects.”...
• Regional averages: Midwest (61.9); South (58.2); West (53.4); Northeast (48.6)
• Sector index breakdown: mixed practice (58.7); commercial/industrial (57.4); multi-family residential (55.8); institutional (51.4)
This graph shows the Architecture Billings Index since 1996. The index was at 54.3 in October, down from 56.6 in September. Anything above 50 indicates expansion in demand for architects' services.Note: This includes commercial and industrial facilities like hotels and office buildings, multi-family residential, as well as schools, hospitals and other institutions.This index was below 50 for eleven consecutive months, but has been solidly positive for the last nine months. The eleven months of decline represented a significant decrease in design services, and suggests a decline in CRE investment through most of 2021 (This index usually leads CRE investment by 9 to 12 months), however this suggests a pickup in CRE investment in 2022.
Hotels: Occupancy Rate Down 4% Compared to Same Week in 2019 -- Note: Since occupancy declined sharply at the onset of the pandemic, CoStar is comparing to 2019. From CoStar: STR: US Weekly Hotel Rate Maintains Growth Over 2019: U.S. hotel performance increased slightly from the previous week, according to STR‘s latest data through November 13. November 7-13, 2021 (percentage change from comparable week in 2019*):
• Occupancy: 61.6% (-3.9%)
• Average daily rate (ADR): $129.98 (+2.6%)
• Revenue per available room (RevPAR): $80.02 (-1.4%)
*Due to the steep, pandemic-driven performance declines of 2020, STR is measuring recovery against comparable time periods from 2019. The following graph shows the seasonal pattern for the hotel occupancy rate using the four week average.
Retail Sales Increased 1.7% in October 
- On a monthly basis, retail sales were increased 1.7% from September to October (seasonally adjusted), and sales were up 16.3 percent from October 2020.From the Census Bureau report: Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for October 2021, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $638.2 billion,an increase of 1.7 percent from the previous month, and 16.3 percent above October 2020. This graph shows retail sales since 1992. This is monthly retail sales and food service, seasonally adjusted (total and ex-gasoline). Retail sales ex-gasoline were up 1.5% in October. The stimulus checks boosted retail sales significantly in March and April.The second graph shows the year-over-year change in retail sales and food service (ex-gasoline) since 1993. Retail and Food service sales, ex-gasoline, increased by 13.9% on a YoY basis.Sales in October were above expectations, and sales in August and September were revised up.
Retail Sales Up 1.7% in October, 16.3% YoY - The Census Bureau's Advance Retail Sales Report for October was released this morning. Headline sales came in at 1.70% month-over-month to two decimals and was above the Investing.com forecast of 1.2%. Core sales (ex Autos) came in at 1.68% MoM.Here is the introduction from today's report:Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for October 2021, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $638.2 billion, an increase of 1.7 percent (±0.5 percent) from the p revious month, and 16.3 percent (±0.9 percent) above October 2020. Total sales for the August 2021 through October 2021 period were up 15.4 percent (±0.7 percent) from the same period a year ago. The August 2021 to September 2021 percent change was revised from up 0.7 percent (±0.5 percent) to up 0.8 percent (±0.2 percent).Retail trade sales were up 1.9 percent (±0.4 percent) from September 2021, and up 14.8 percent (±0.7 percent) above last year. Gasoline stations were up 46.8 percent (±1.6 percent) from October 2020, while food services and drinking places were up 29.3 percent (±3.9 percent) from last year. [view full report]The chart below is a log-scale snapshot of retail sales since the early 1990s. The two exponential regressions through the data help us to evaluate the long-term trend of this key economic indicator.
Now *that’s* good news: another blockbuster real retail sales report - Yesterday I wrote that the financial and production sides of the economy still looked very positive, and that today’s retail sales number would be especially important. Well, they were very positive, clocking in at up 1.7% month over month in October. Even after inflation, “real” retail sales were up 0.7%. September was unrevised. Although real retail sales are down -2.2% from their April peak, they are +13.5% higher than they were just before the pandemic hit, and 4.9% higher than January of this year: In September I wrote that ”while the recent decline from April is consistent with a slowing economy ahead, if sales stabilize here I don’t see this as a harbinger of an actual downturn.” That still looks correct, particularly as real retail sales are up over 2% since then, and 9.5% higher YoY. How extreme is that? The below graph subtracts 9.5% YoY growth from retail sales from 1948 through 2019: With the exception of 2 months in 1983 and 1984, real retail sales haven’t been this strong since the early 1970s! That’s the last time the US had such a worker-favorable economy. This also explains a great part of the supply chain bottleneck, since it is incapable of handling such a sudden jump in consumer demand. Here’s a graph I came across a couple of weeks ago showing activity at the two big California port facilities: In other words, even though the ports are processing record volumes, they *still* can’t keep up with the increased import demand. Now let’s turn to employment, because real retail sales are also a good short leading indicator for jobs. As I have written many times over the past 10+ years, real retail sales YoY/2 has a good record of leading jobs YoY with a lead time of about 3 to 6 months. That’s because demand for goods and services leads for the need to hire employees to fill that demand. The exceptions have been right after the 2001 and 2008 recessions, when it took jobs longer to catch up, as shown in the graph below, which takes us up to February 2020: Now here is the same graph since just before the onset of the pandemic. Note the scale is much larger due to the huge downturn during the lockdowns and the comparisons one year later: Last month I argued that, despite the lackluster initial jobs reports for August and September, this “argues that we can expect jobs reports in the next few months to average out about even with those from one year ago, which averaged about 500,000 per month.” Well, two weeks ago those months were revised well higher, and October came in at 531,000 jobs added - which means that job growth indeed has continued to average about 500,000 per month. And should continue to do so in the next few months.
U.S. retail sales surge as Americans kick off holiday shopping, brighten economic outlook (Reuters) - U.S. retail sales surged in October as Americans eagerly started their holiday shopping early to avoid empty shelves amid shortages of some goods because of the ongoing pandemic, giving the economy a lift at the start of the fourth quarter. The solid report from the Commerce Department on Tuesday suggested high inflation was not yet dampening spending, even as worries about the rising cost of living sent consumer sentiment tumbling to a 10-year low in early November. Rising household wealth, thanks to a strong stock market and house prices, as well as massive savings and wage gains appear to be cushioning consumers against the highest annual inflation in three decades. "It's more important to look at what consumers do than what they say," said Gus Faucher, chief economist at PNC Financial in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. "They are concerned about higher inflation, but they are still in good shape and are continuing to spend." Retail sales jumped 1.7% last month, the largest gain since March, after rising 0.8% in September. It was the third straight monthly advance and topped economists' expectations for a 1.4% increase. Sales soared 16.3% year-on-year in October and are 21.4% above their pre-pandemic level. Several of the top U.S. retailers this week have noted an earlier start to holiday shopping. While this could lead to declines in November and December, economists and retailers expect holiday sales this year will be the best in a while. "Today's numbers show that consumers are getting a jump on their holiday shopping," said Matthew Shay, president of the National Retail Federation in Washington. "We continue to urge consumers to shop early and shop safely, and we fully expect this holiday season to be one for the record books." Retail sales are mostly made up of goods, with services, including healthcare, education and hotel accommodation, making up the remaining portion of consumer spending. The nearly two-year long COVID-19 pandemic has caused an acute shortage of labor, delaying deliveries of raw materials to factories as well as shipments of finished goods to markets. October's broad increase in sales partly reflected higher prices as monthly consumer inflation surged 0.9% in October, which boosted the annual rate to 6.2%. Stocks on Wall Street were trading higher on the data and also as Walmart forecast a strong holiday quarter. The dollar rose against a basket of currencies. U.S. Treasury prices fell. Sales were led by motor vehicles, with receipts at auto dealerships advancing 1.8% after gaining 1.2% in September. The rise reflected the first increase in unit sales in six months, as well as higher prices. The tight supply of automobiles because of a global semiconductor shortage is driving up prices. Sales at service stations increased 3.9%, boosted by more expensive gasoline. Online retail sales rebounded 4.0%. Receipts at building material stores advanced 2.8%. There were also increases in receipts at furniture outlets as well as sporting goods, hobby, musical instrument and book stores. Sales at electronics and appliance stores rebounded 3.8%. But sales at clothing stores fell 0.7%. Sales at restaurants and bars were unchanged despite an ebb in COVID-19 infections, driven by the Delta variant. Restaurants and bars are the only services category in the retail sales report. These sales were up 29.3% from last October. Economists speculated that either high inflation was forcing consumers to cut back on eating out or that spending had permanently shifted in favor of goods.
Massive Price Increases & Overstimulated Demand Fuel Historic Surge in Retail Sales Wolf Richter - (see graphs) Total retail sales jumped by 1.7% in October from September, by 16.3% from October a year ago, and by 22% from October 2019, to a record $638 billion (seasonally adjusted), according to the Census Bureau today, blowing by the mind-blowing free-money-blow-off-spike in March and April, driven by equally mind-blowing inflation: Fired up by $4.5 trillion in Federal Reserve money printing and by $5.7 trillion in federal government deficit spending since March 2020, over $10 trillion in total monetary and fiscal stimulus in just 20 months, including hundreds of billions of dollars in free money handed directly to states, businesses, and consumers, and trillions of dollars handed to the markets, leading to a monstrously overstimulated economy and to even more monstrously overstimulated markets, well – you guessed it but the Fed refuses to guess it – demand for goods of all kinds has spiked in a historic manner, as you can see in the charts below.No supply chain or transportation system was, or could ever be, ready for this artificially stimulated historic spike in demand, triggering widespread shortages, along with a sudden and radical change in the inflationary mindset of consumers and businesses, and massive price increases that keep rippling through the economy and are now intensifying further up in the pricing pipeline, where price spikes have reached 20%, and they’re getting passed on.These mind-blowing price increases are inflating retail sales. Four retailer categories account for 52% of total retail sales here: auto dealers, food & beverage stores, restaurants, and gas stations. And prices there have surged, as tracked by the Consumer Price Index, compared to a year ago:
- Used vehicle prices: +26%
- New vehicle prices: +10%
- Food prices at stores: +5.4%
- Restaurant Prices: +5.3%
- Gasoline prices: +50%
For your amusement, miscellaneous store retailers first, where sales are spiking in the most peculiar manner. These are specialty stores such as beer brewing supply stores, telescope stores, arts supply stores, etc. Sales are spiking because those retailers also include cannabis stores, and that trade, once hidden, has come to the corner store, and is being counted and taxed.Sales in October spiked 2.8% from September, by 26% year-over-year and by 30% from October 2019, to $15 billion (seasonally adjusted):Magnitude by retailer categories. In the overall scheme, these miscellaneous store retailers with the booming cannabis trade are small fry, the green line at the bottom in the chart below. Auto dealers and parts stores are by far the largest retail segment (black line). Nonstore retailers – mostly ecommerce – have become the second largest retail category (red line), followed by grocery & beverage stores (green), restaurants and bars (purple), general merchandise stores (yellow), building material and garden supply stores (gray), and all the rest:
Fewer Americans To Hit The Roads On Thanksgiving As Gasoline Prices Near Record - Just 32 percent of Americans plan to drive for Thanksgiving this year as gasoline prices are expected to be the second most expensive for the holiday ever, the annual survey of fuel-savings platform GasBuddy showed this week.Even compared to the pandemic 2020, the share of Americans who plan to travel by car for Thanksgiving is lower this year, at 32 percent compared to 35 percent last year, and to 65 percent who had said they would drive for the holiday in pre-pandemic 2019.75 percent of Americans say that Covid-19 has had no impact on their holiday plans this year, while half say they are driving less overall this year. When asked what it would take for them to drive more, an overwhelming 78 percent said “lower gas prices,” GasBuddy’s survey showed.On Thanksgiving Day, the national average price of gasoline is expected to decline to $3.35 per gallon, but it still be the second most expensive ever. The record for the most expensive gasoline prices on Thanksgiving Day was set in 2012 at $3.44 per gallon of regular gasoline.As of November 18, the national average price of a gallon of regular gasoline stood at $3.414, according to AAA data. Expectations are that gasoline prices would drop until Thanksgiving, but “there remains a remote chance that should oil suddenly surge, gas prices could quickly follow and potentially beat 2012’s record for most expensive national average ever for the date,” GasBuddy noted.
Biden’s green agenda is not the driver of the US petrol price surge - As anger over surging petrol prices in America has grown, President Joe Biden’s critics have pounced. The president’s green shift has turned off the taps at America’s once gushing oil industry, they argue, fuelling higher prices and inflation.But it is Wall Street, not Washington, that has put the clamps on growth in America’s oil patch. Investors scarred by years of cash-burning growth have called time on a debt-fuelled drilling binge that made the US the world’s largest oil producer, but inflicted billions of dollars in losses on shareholders.Still, to Biden’s industry and political critics, American drivers are paying more to fill up because the nation’s oil producers are being held back by a climate-minded presidency that has piled on taxes and regulations, deprived the industry of drilling permits and shut down pipelines.Yet none of the actions from the White House have altered the trajectory of US crude supply in the 10 months since Biden took office.Critics, for instance, often link today’s high pump prices with president Biden’s cancellation of the Keystone XL pipeline, which would have ferried oil from Canada to the US Gulf coast. Whatever the merits of the decision, the pipeline was still years away from construction. Today’s oil price is not rising because it was scrapped.Biden has also paused leasing of new parcels of federally-held lands for fracking. But this is not pushing up fuel prices either. Producers are sitting on thousands of permits for new wells on lands it has already leased, enough to keep drilling at a healthy clip for years. More to the point, the vast majority of US shale production comes from private lands, making the issue marginal to the broader US supply picture.New taxes and regulations, meanwhile, remain largely theoretical as long as the administration’s climate agenda is tied up in Congress. The most significant new oil and gas regulatory proposal is on restricting emissions of methane, a potent greenhouse gas, which most in the industry profess to support.Another fuzzier argument is that anti-oil rhetoric is enough to discourage investment. A similar argument was often made during the Obama administration, which was similarly critical of the industry. Yet oil and gas output soared.Biden himself appears keen to see American oil producers pick up the pace as gasoline prices hit multiyear highs. Hecalled on producers to pump more crude the day before heading to the COP26 climate conference in Glasgow, acknowledging the “irony” of asking for more fossil fuel amid the climate talks but arguing there was a pressing short-term need to bring down fuel prices.Ultimately what the market is signalling and investors are demanding will be far more important to US supply than who sits in the White House. Shareholders are now demanding the influx of cash from surging prices goes back to them through increased dividends and share buybacks rather than being ploughed into new wells in Texas or North Dakota.
LA Area Port Traffic: Solid Imports, Weak Exports in October-Notes: incoming port traffic is backed up significantly in the LA area with numerous ships at anchor waiting to unload.Container traffic gives us an idea about the volume of goods being exported and imported - and usually some hints about the trade report since LA area ports handle about 40% of the nation's container port traffic.The following graphs are for inbound and outbound traffic at the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach in TEUs (TEUs: 20-foot equivalent units or 20-foot-long cargo container).To remove the strong seasonal component for inbound traffic, the first graph shows the rolling 12 month average.On a rolling 12 month basis, inbound traffic was down 0.5% in October compared to the rolling 12 months ending in September. Outbound traffic was down 1.4% compared to the rolling 12 months ending the previous month.The 2nd graph is the monthly data (with a strong seasonal pattern for imports). Usually imports peak in the July to October period as retailers import goods for the Christmas holiday, and then decline sharply and bottom in February or March depending on the timing of the Chinese New Year. 2021 started off incredibly strong for imports - and with the backlog of ships, will probably continue strong into 2022 (no break again in February or March). Imports were down 6% YoY in October (recovered last year following the early months of the pandemic), and exports were down 15% YoY.
As Port of Los Angeles import backups ease, empty containers pile up (Reuters) - The number of container ships waiting to enter the busiest U.S. seaport complex hit a new record of 84 on Tuesday, as growing piles of empty containers crowd docks at the Southern California facility that has been racing to remove lingering imports. The conundrum illustrates the challenge faced by a U.S. government task force charged with tackling supply chain snarls that are contributing to product shortages and inflation. U.S. ports have been inundated with cargo since the pandemic shifted spending away from restricted entertainment like travel and dining out to physical goods. COVID-19 also reduced labor needed to keep goods flowing smoothly. Aging truckers retired early, while infection control measures have limited dock and warehouse staffing. There are now roughly 65,000 empty containers on the Port of Los Angeles docks, up about 18% from just a couple of weeks ago, said the port's executive director, Gene Seroka. He added that "sweeper" ships are inbound to shuttle some of those boxes back to factories in Asia. Meanwhile, the number of import containers at the Los Angeles port fell 25% to 71,000 since Oct. 24, Seroka said. Railroads and truckers have made progress moving import containers off docks at the adjacent ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach - prompting executives from to delay imposing a new fee on overstaying imports by one week to Nov. 22. The new fee would hit imports destined for truck removal after nine days or more on docks, and would start after six days or more for rail-bound cargo. Ports would charge ocean carriers escalating fees for overstaying container - with a $100 charge for the first day, $200 for the second, and so on.
Trucker pay may need to rise to resolve supply chain woes, U.S. regulator says (Reuters) - Wages for truckers and warehouse workers may need to rise to resolve shipping backups, the chairman of the U.S. Federal Maritime Commission, which oversees ocean transportation, said on Tuesday. In an open meeting, U.S. Federal Maritime Commission Chairman Daniel Maffei said a lack of warehouse space and truckers to move products seemed to be at least part of the problem, where vessels laden with consumer goods are stuck outside ports because there is no space to dock and unload. "We do see more employment there which is a good thing, but I suspect compared to the demand, there's not enough," he said. "I just don't see how we can get sufficient workers in those sectors unless wages creep up a bit." Retailers have struggled to bring products into the United States ahead of the peak shopping season due to shipping logjams, shuttered factories in parts of Asia and a scarcity of raw materials in recent months. Kristen Monaco, director of the FMC's Bureau of Trade Analysis, said truck drivers are generally not paid for the time they spend waiting, and long waits hurt efficiency. "Think of it as sort of reducing your labor supply by having the same number of people there because you're just not making use of their time. And that is an inefficiency. And it's not currently paid, which means there's very little economic incentive to fix that inefficiency," she said.
Supply Chain Delays – Supply or Demand - As has been noted, the surge in goods demand is part of the story for why shortages and price pressures have mounted. Here’s another illustration.Figure 1: Inbound TEU’s, Port of Long Beach (dark blue), 12 month centered moving average (sky blue), and 2009M07-20M01 trend (red). NBER defined recession dates peak-trough shaded gray. TEU = twenty foot equivalent unit. Source: Port of Long Beach, NBER, and author’s calculations.Inbound traffic is above trend, at least as measured by 12 month centered moving average. This is consistent with the view that elevated goods demand is driving some of the logistical issues currently being experienced.One interesting aspect of the series is that it started declining substantially even before the pandemic struck. That in turn is consistent with tariffs biting on imports, or decelerating growth. On the other hand, outbound traffic has been off-trend for years. Figure 2: Outbound TEU’s, Port of Long Beach (dark blue), 12 month centered moving average (sky blue), and 2009M07-16M12 trend (red). NBER defined recession dates peak-trough shaded gray. TEU = twenty foot equivalent unit. Source: Port of Long Beach, NBER, and author’s calculations.
American Economic Liberties Project research director details Clinton-era law behind supply chain crisis -Matt Stoller, the research director at the American Economics Liberties Project, said that a Clinton-era deregulatory law contributed in part to the current supply chain crisis. Stoller explained in a Friday appearance on Hill.TV's "Rising" that the law deregulated the prices of shipping containers, which led to a consolidation of the types of containers being used. Previously, shipping containers of different sizes were used to enable access to different ports. However, the law led to the elimination of all but the firms with larger shipping containers, which cannot access certain ports as easily. “So if we hadn't actually deregulated this industry, if we had kept some of the price stability in place, you would see prices for shipping containers, which dropped dramatically and facilitated globalization — they probably wouldn't have dropped as much, but you would have seen a much more stable shipping space,” Stoller said. “And today when you have this kind of massive boom of imports, you wouldn't be able to move cargo to different destinations. It wouldn't be as overloaded and you'd have more firms coming into the market with different size boats,” he added. Stoller’s remarks come as the United States braces for a frenzied holiday season amid a supply chain crisis stemming from a worker shortage and backlogs at ports, among other issues.
Airlines are gearing up for a busier — and costlier — holiday season as fuel prices rise - Demand for air travel is on the rise ahead of the holidays. So are the costs. Jet fuel hasn't been this expensive since 2014. Airlines also racing to hire thousands of employees to meet growing demand: pilots, flight attendants, reservations agents, baggage handlers and many others, competing in a tight labor market that would have seemed impossible in the early days of the coronavirus pandemic. And, airlines have run through much of the $54 billion in government payroll aid that helped cover their labor bills during the crisis. The rise in costs is threatening the industry's attempt to return to profitability after losing a record $35 billion last year when the pandemic snapped a decade of profits. For passengers, the combination of returning demand and higher costs could mean more expensive ticket prices ahead. Delta Air Lines last month said higher jet fuel prices would weigh on its bottom line in the fourth quarter. Frontier Airlines on Wednesday forecast a loss on an adjusted basis for the fourth quarter due to higher fuel costs. Benchmark U.S. jet fuel was $2.27 a gallon on Nov. 10, up 25% from three months earlier. The rise in fuel prices is "definitely delaying the earnings recovery," said Savanthi Syth, an airline analyst at Raymond James. "If it's a slow burn, airlines can handle it. This move up in this short of a period is not good." Airlines eager to cash in on a return to demand have tried to balance — with varying degrees of success — how much they can fly with their current staffing levels. Overall, U.S. carriers will fly about 6% less in November and December compared with 2019, before the pandemic, according to aviation data and consulting firm Cirium. Low-cost airlines like Frontier and Spirit Airlines are exceptions, with more capacity scheduled than they did two years ago. The ramp-up has been bumpy. Spirit, Southwest Airlines and American Airlines have each had mass cancellations since late July, many of them due to staffing shortages that make it harder to recover from routine issues like weather. Spirit and Southwest had trimmed some of their schedules to give themselves more wiggle room should something go wrong. Southwest has also boosted the ranks of backup crews with new hires and more staff coming back from leave. Over the weekend, Southwest offered flight attendants, ground crews and others up to 120,000 frequent flyer miles, worth more than $1,400, to work certain numbers of shifts over the next two months.
Flight attendant union president: Air rage incidents creating 'hostile environment' - The head of the country’s main flight attendant union said an increase in unruly passenger incidents is contributing to a “hostile environment” for the profession, ahead of a House subcommittee meeting on the issue Tuesday. “More and more we’ve seen this as a regular occurrence and that really chips away at people,” Sara Nelson, president of the Association of Flight Attendants-CWA (AFA-CWA), told The Washington Post on Monday. Nelson will testify at a House Homeland Security subcommittee hearing on Tuesday along with other leaders of labor groups in the aviation industry. According to Federal Aviation Association (FAA) data released last week, 5,114 incidents involving unruly passengers have been reported this year. The agency has also levied $225K in fines against passengers over the incidents. Late last month, an American Airlines flight was diverted after a passenger allegedly assaulted a flight attendant. And the FAA has detailed multiple other physical and verbal assaults against attendants. Nelson said the verbal assaults are becoming increasingly personal, citing a July AFA-CWA study finding that 61 percent of flight attendants reported disruptive passengers used “sexist, racist, or homophobic language.” “Flight attendants have been the target of a lot of anger and strife when they put on their uniforms,” she said. Nelson called on the Department of Justice to “criminally prosecute very publicly” bad actors and on the FAA to continue to levy fines and promote public awareness of air rage incidents.
Industrial Production Increased 1.6 Percent in October; Back to Pre-pandemic Levels -From the Fed: Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization: Industrial production rose 1.6 percent in October after falling 1.3 percent in September; about half of the gain in October reflected a recovery from the effects of Hurricane Ida. Manufacturing output increased 1.2 percent in October; excluding a large gain in the production of motor vehicles and parts, factory output moved up 0.6 percent. The output of utilities rose 1.2 percent, and mining output stepped up 4.1 percent. At 101.6 percent of its 2017 average, total industrial production in October was 5.1 percent above its year-earlier level and at its highest reading since December 2019. In October, capacity utilization for the industrial sector increased 1.2 percentage points to 76.4 percent; even so, it was still 3.2 percentage points below its long-run (1972–2020) average. This graph shows Capacity Utilization. This series is up from the record low set in April 2020, and back to the level in February 2020 (pre-pandemic). Capacity utilization at 76.4% is 3.2% below the average from 1972 to 2020. This was above consensus expectations. The second graph shows industrial production since 1967. Industrial production increased in October to 100.0. This is slightly above the February 2020 level. The change in industrial production was above consensus expectations.
Empire State Mfg Survey: Strong Growth in November -This morning we got the latest Empire State Manufacturing Survey. The diffusion index for General Business Conditions at 30.9 was an increase of 11.1 from the previous month's 19.8. The Investing.com forecast was for a reading of 21.6.The Empire State Manufacturing Index rates the relative level of general business conditions in New York state. A level above 0.0 indicates improving conditions, below indicates worsening conditions. The reading is compiled from a survey of about 200 manufacturers in New York state.Here is the opening paragraph from the report.Business activity grew strongly in New York State, according to firms responding to the November 2021 Empire State Manufacturing Survey. The headline general business conditions index climbed eleven points to 30.9. New orders and shipments posted substantial increases, and unfilled orders rose. Delivery times were significantly longer. Employment grew at its fastest pace on record, and the average workweek increased. The prices paid index held near its record high, and the prices received index reached a new peak. Firms planned significant increases in capital and technology spending. Looking ahead, firms remained optimistic that conditions would improve over the next six months, though optimism dipped. [Full report] Here is a chart of the current conditions and its 3-month moving average, which helps clarify the trend for this extremely volatile indicator:
The Labor Force Participation Rate - On Friday, Goldman Sachs economists put out a research note on the labor force participation rate: Why Isn’t Labor Force Participation Recovering? Here are few excerpts from the note: While the unemployment rate continues to fall quickly, labor force participation has made no progress since August 2020. ... Most of the 5.0mn persons who have exited the labor force since the start of the pandemic are over age 55 (3.4mn), largely reflecting early (1.5mn) and natural (1mn) retirements that likely won’t reverse. The outlook for prime-age persons who have exited the labor force (1.7mn) is more positive, since very few are discouraged and most still view their exits as temporary. First, there are two important monthly surveys from the BLS. The participation rate (and unemployment rate) comes from the Current Population Survey (CPS: commonly called the household survey), a monthly survey of about 60,000 households. The jobs number comes from Current Employment Statistics (CES: payroll survey), a sample of approximately 634,000 business establishments nationwide. These are very different surveys: the CPS gives the total number of employed (and unemployed including the alternative measures), and the CES gives the total number of positions (excluding some categories like the self-employed, and a person working two jobs counts as two positions). Currently the payroll survey shows there are 4.2 million fewer jobs than in February 2020 (pre-pandemic). The household survey shows there are 2.99 million fewer people in the labor force than in February 2020. The 5 million number probably assumes some normal labor force growth, however, overall population growth has been dismal over the last 2 years (little immigration and large number of deaths). I'm not confident in Goldman's 5 million person estimate.Here is a graph that shows the employment population ratio and the participation rate through the October 2021 employment report. The Labor Force Participation Rate was unchanged at 61.6% in October, from 61.6% in September. This is the percentage of the working age population in the labor force.The Employment-Population ratio increased to 58.8% from 58.7% (black line). Both are far below the pre-pandemic levels, however the overall participation rate was expected to decline due to demographics. Since the overall participation rate has declined due to the pandemic and demographic (aging population, younger people staying in school) reasons, here is the employment-population ratio for the key working age group: 25 to 54 years old. The 25 to 54 participation rate increased in October to 81.7% from 81.6% in September, and the 25 to 54 employment population ratio increased to 78.3% from 78.0% in September. Both are still low and indicate that many prime workers have still not returned to the labor force. In the note, Goldman argues "Most of the 5.0mn persons who have exited the labor force since the start of the pandemic are over age 55 (3.4mn), largely reflecting early (1.5mn) and natural (1mn) retirements that likely won’t reverse." There probably have been a large number of people retiring over the last 2 years, but I think more at least half of the people missing from the labor force are prime age.Here is a graph of the change in the participation rate by age cohort (October 2019, October 2020, and October 2021 NSA).If more older people were retiring than expected, we'd see a decline from Blue (pre-pandemic) to Red (pandemic) to Black (October 2021). We do see this for the "70 to 74" and "75+" age groups. And this does suggest more retirements than expected in the 70+ age groups. However the "55 to 59", "60 to 64" and "65 to 69" age groups are recovering similar to the prime age groups. If we calculate the expected labor force by cohort, using the pre-pandemic participation rates, about 50% of the people missing from the labor force are in the prime working age (25 to 54). About 75% of the people missing are in the 20 to 65 age group. This suggests to me that there is more slack in the labor market than Goldman estimates.
Employers Still in Denial About the New Normal of Fed-Up Low Wage Workers – Yves Smith - Perhaps I am reading overmuch into an in-passing observation at a new Wall Street Journal story on the continuing high quit rate in jobs deemed to be low level by virtue of being not terribly well paid, irrespective of the actual skill level involved. But it ring so true that I think not. It effectively says that employers have not adjusted to the fact that in an era when going to work means risking life and limb, aka Covid hazards, they need to be treated better, as in more pay, more respect, more perks like sick days.The Wall Street Journal article, As American Workers Leave Jobs in Record Numbers, a Closer Look at Who Is Quitting, not only presents some new data on these departures, but also makes clear that there’s no end in sight for higher turnover. This tidbit is important because it flies in the face of what managers and investors want to believe: that adults need paychecks, that even if they refuse work (or even merely try to refuse work that they deem to be beneath them) that sooner rather than later, strained finances will force them to relent. Apparently they haven’t met many guerrilla grazers. Recall that conservatives were upset about the Covid-tightened job markets and called for an end to enhanced unemployment insurance, convinced that it was turning once-diligent workers into new welfare mom equivalents. But when the benefits were cut back, the uptick in employment fell far short of what they’d expected based on the number losing support. Key points from the new Journal sighting: American workers’ stampede toward the exits hasn’t let up…low-wage workers, employees of color and women outside the management ranks are those most likely to change roles. The findings signal that turnover isn’t evenly spread across the U.S. workforce… While front-line and low-wage positions typically see high rates of turnover, for example, employees in those roles are especially likely to leave now, Mercer found in a survey of 2,000 U.S. workers conducted in August. And a survey of 3,600 U.S. workers released recently by software maker Qualtrics found a growing share of women open to changing roles. Some 63% of female middle managers said they intended to stay in their jobs next year, a drop from 75% in 2021, while 58% of women in nonmanagerial roles said the same… Among front-line and low-wage workers in Mercer’s survey, 37% of food, retail and hospitality staffers are thinking of quitting, up from a historic norm of 27% among eight million employee responses collected by the company over the past five years…. Nearly half of low-wage and front-line workers surveyed said their pay and benefits were insufficient while 41% said they felt burned out from demanding workloads. Some 35% of Black employees and 40% of Asian employees said they were considering leaving, compared with 26% of white employees. Historically, Black and Asian employees have reported considering quitting at rates just under 30%, consistent with the general workforce…. The Qualtrics survey found even higher rates of people considering leaving their jobs than Mercer’s research did. Some 62% of workers planned to stay in their current jobs next year, the survey found, down from 65% in 2021. Notice this is occurring even as Mercer’s survey found that the overall level of planned job departures hadn’t changed. That suggests that the higher ups are more likely to stay put than usual, perhaps the result of some being able to continue working part or full time at home.
As remote work empties San Francisco, can theaters fill their seats?— As live performance finally returns after the pandemic shutdown, cultural institutions are confronting a long list of unknowns.Will audiences feel safe returning to crowded theaters? Have people grown so accustomed to watching screens in their living rooms that they will not return to live events? And how will the advent of work-from-home policies, which have emptied blocks of downtowns and business districts, affect weekday attendance at theaters and concert halls?Nowhere is that last question more urgent than here in San Francisco, where tech companies have led the way in embracing work-from-home policies and flexible schedules more than in almost any other city in the nation.“As people work from home, it is going to change our demographics,” said Matthew Shilvock, the general director of the San Francisco Opera. “It’s something that could be a threat.”Arts groups are trying to gauge what the embrace of more flexible work-from-home policies will mean for their ability to draw audiences. Close to 70 percent of the audiences at the San Francisco Opera and the San Francisco Symphony live outside the city, according to data collected by the two organizations.There were some patches of empty seats across the Davies Symphony Hall the other night, as the San Francisco Symphony presented the United States premier of a violin concerto by Bryce Dessner. Attendance in October was down 11 percent compared to before the pandemic, though the symphony said advance sales were strong, suggesting the spring might bring normal audiences.
Michigan issues new mask advisory as COVID-19 cases surge -Michigan issued a new mask advisory on Friday ahead of the holiday season as COVID-19 cases are surging in the state. The advisory, effective immediately, says anyone above the age of two should wear a mask at indoor gatherings, regardless of their vaccination status. Public establishments should be implementing mask policies and people who are unvaccinated or immunocompromised should avoid crowds, according to the advisory put forth by the Michigan Department of Health and Human Services (MDHHS). "The increases in case counts, percent positivity and hospitalizations have us very concerned," MDHHS Director Elizabeth Hertel said. "We are issuing the face mask advisory and are looking to Michiganders to do their part to help protect their friends, their families and their communities by wearing a mask in indoor settings and getting vaccinated for COVID-19 and flu as soon as possible if they have not already done so,” she added. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention announced on Thursday that Michigan hit its highest seven day case rate in 2021 at 589.3 cases, the Detroit Free Press reported. The Friday advisory also encourages vaccinations saying it will help the Great Lakes State avoid crisis standards of care from overcrowded hospitals. "Safe and effective COVID-19 vaccines are available to children ages 5 and up, and boosters are available for eligible Michiganders. The holidays can be a time to spread great cheer and we recommend taking measures including wearing a mask indoors to not spread COVID-19 to loved ones,” Natasha Bagdasarian, chief medical executive, said.
Ahead of Thanksgiving, the N.F.L. adds mask requirements and increases testing. The N.F.L. said Wednesday it is strengthening its Covid-19 protocols as the number of positive cases rises across the country and people make plans to gather for Thanksgiving.Every person, regardless of their vaccination status, must wear a mask inside team facilities between Nov. 25 and Dec. 1, and all players, coaches and support staff must be tested for the coronavirus on Nov. 29 and Dec. 1, after the Thanksgiving weekend.This season, unvaccinated players and staff in the league’s Tier 1 designation, the most essential personnel, must be tested every day. Those who are vaccinated must be tested at least once per week, and potentially more frequently if they are symptomatic or have a close contact with someone who tests positive. This update to the protocols means unvaccinated players must wait for their test results before entering a team facility, while vaccinated players and staff can enter but must remain masked while they wait for results.
Disney Cruise Line will require all passengers ages 5 and older to be fully vaccinated. - Disney Cruise Line updated its immunization policy for guests on Wednesday, requiring all children over the age of 5 to be fully vaccinated against the coronavirus.The vaccine mandate will go into effect on Jan. 13 and will apply to sailings both in the United States and abroad. Until then, unvaccinated guests between the ages of 5 and 11 must take a pre-departure coronavirus test. Currently, guests age 12 and up and all crew members on Disney ships must be fully vaccinated.The new requirement comes after federal regulators recently cleared Pfizer-BioNTech’s pediatric vaccine for children ages 5 through 11 earlier.Like Disney, most other major cruise lines have required passengers 12 and older to be fully vaccinated. While some companies like Carnival Cruise Line, Royal Caribbean Group and MSC Cruises have allowed unvaccinated children on board ships with testing requirements, some sailings have had to limit numbers on board because of policies that require at least 95 percent of passengers to be fully vaccinated.Last week, the chief executive officer of Royal Caribbean, Richard Fain, said he expects an update on vaccine protocols for children soon, but no changes have been announced yet.“I think we’re moving in the direction where every cruise will have 100 percent of the crew vaccinated and 95 or more percent of the guests,” he said at a media event on board Odyssey of the Seas, a cruise ship owned by Royal Caribbean.Norwegian Cruise Line has one of the most stringent immunization policies, requiring all passengers and crew to be fully vaccinated — including eligible children — and recently announced that the rules would be extended “indefinitely” in the near future. It bars ineligible children from sailings.To encourage family cruise vacations, Holland American Line recently announced a new offer allowing fully vaccinated children ages 5 to 17 to sail for free as third and fourth guests in the same stateroom.
Road Deaths Are Soaring Even As Americans Are Driving Less -Larger vehicles, higher speed limits, and poor road design are among the likely causes of the spike. Data on U.S. traffic fatalities in 2020 shocked safety advocates: At a time when people were driving less, deaths jumped. In fact, they were higher last year than in any year since 2007. And 2021 could be even worse. The federal government estimates that 20,160 people died in motor vehicle crashes in the first half of this year. That’s an 18.4% increase from the same period in 2020.“This is a crisis,” Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg said in a statement when the numbers were released on Oct. 28. “We cannot and should not accept these fatalities as simply a part of everyday life in America.” Buttigieg promised that by January, his department will come up with a “first-ever” federal strategy for improving road safety.Initially safety experts blamed the rising deaths on reckless drivers speeding down empty roads, with most people at home because of the pandemic. It seemed that congestion, though annoying, was also a major road safety feature, forcing drivers to slow down. But when traffic started to return this year and more people were driving, deaths increased again. “This is our other national pandemic—traffic crashes,” says Pam Shadel Fischer, senior director for external engagement at the Governors Highway Safety Association.Experts don’t know what’s causing the surge, but there are plenty of candidates. Since the pandemic began, people are speeding more and wearing seat belts less, according to the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA). Vehicles are getting bigger. State lawmakers are making it legal to go faster. U.S. regulators have been less aggressive than those in other countries on vehicle safety requirements.The spike has undermined two long-held assumptions in the transportation industry, says Beth Osborne, director of the advocacy group Transportation for America. First, it was believed that more driving would mean more fatalities, and if driving went down, road deaths would decline, too. Second, the conventional wisdom has been that almost all crashes are the result of human error, so the solution is improving drivers’ behavior. “At least one of our assumptions has been proven wildly wrong,” she says.
Most say police shouldn't be primary responders for mental health crises: NAMI poll -- A wide majority of Americans say mental health professionals, rather than law enforcement, should be the primary first responders to mental health crises, a poll released Monday found. The poll, conducted by Ipsos on behalf of the National Alliance on Mental Illness (NAMI), found broad support for police, with 72 percent of respondents having a favorable view of law enforcement. Still, nearly 80 percent of respondents said mental health professionals, not police, should respond to mental health and suicide situations. With millions of mental health crises reported through 911 annually, the responsibility to respond often falls to police. The Washington Post reported that a quarter of people shot and killed by law enforcement between 2015 and 2020 had a mental illness. Of those with mental illness shot and killed, a third were people of color.More than 60 percent of participants in the NAMI poll said they’d be afraid law enforcement would hurt a loved one when responding to a mental health crisis. Nearly half said they would not feel safe calling 911 for a loved one experiencing a mental health crisis.People of color and those diagnosed with a mental health condition were more likely to report being afraid or not feeling safe with law enforcement responding to a loved one’s crisis. NAMI CEO Daniel Gillison Jr. said “lives will be saved” if the country shifts to prioritize professional response to these crises.
I'm an American mom who lived in Prague for 2 years. Children in the US have far less freedom than Czech children. --I've spent the past two years in Prague, and it's been fascinating to observe some of the different approaches to parenting as compared to what I've encountered in the United States.As the mother of two young boys, it's always fascinated me how manydifferent approaches there are to parenting.I sometimes wonder if I'm too involved in the actions of my children, and it was through my observations of parents in Prague that I came to appreciate how different styles of parenting can affect a child's ability to explore, grow, and develop a sense of acceptable risk-taking. The first difference that leaped out to me was the emphasis that Czech parents placed on spending time outdoors with their children.I was told there is no such thing as bad weather. It's simply a matter of bad clothing if one is uncomfortable being outside in certain conditions.Families could often be found hiking in rain, strolling with baby carriages in frigid temperatures, and embracing the priceless gems of all the nature surrounding them.While many families in the US value spending time outdoors, my observation was that schedules often didn't permit lengthy outings, and that the weather could impede the willingness of children and parents to participate. Another difference I saw was that Czech parents seemed to have a higher threshold for acceptable risk-taking by their children.Playgrounds are a perfect example. They typically contain a climbing structure known as a spiderweb — imagine a pyramid with each side constructed from a rope spiderweb soaring roughly 20 feet in the air — as well as various balance challenges and other obstacles that would send many Americans running for their lawyers if such structures were to appear in the United States.Kids ride public transportation at ages far younger than in the United States.They stay at home alone. They bike without chaperones. They hike, climb, fall, get hurt, and get up and do it again because they learn not to let the fall scare them.Czech parents appear to let their children push boundaries in ways that the "helicopter parenting" style often found in the United States doesn't allow.A final difference I saw was that Czech parents appeared to offer their children greater freedom to explore. Children run around neighborhoods freely. They scamper through forests and run across fields, often being far from parental eyesight.
Democrats need to take this seriously: elementary school closing for 10 days due to inadequate testing capacity - We are almost two years into this pandemic, and a K-8 school in Boston is being forced to close for 10 days due to lack of testing capacity. First, capacity was inadequate to quell an outbreak: Curley’s school testing program became overwhelmed when more than 500 students a day needed testing. That meant some infected students remained in school before getting tested for COVID-19 or getting their results.And now testing capacity is inadequate to avoid a prolonged shutdown:The commissioner recommended several steps, including asking the school district and the Boston Public Health Commission to set up testing that would begin on Nov. 14.Cassellius said in her letter that only one vendor of the three the school district contacted would be able to begin testing as early as Sunday, Monday and Tuesday, and would only have the capacity to test about 100 individuals. The Curley School has approximately 1,000 students and more than 100 staff members.Although the Department of Elementary and Secondary Education offered to assist with testing, Cassellius said that due to Curley’s diverse community, students may have difficulty getting to the testing site and the 36- to 48-hour turnaround time on tests would not allow students to safely return to school.Figuring out how this happened would be a great dissertation project; I can’t figure it out this morning. But currently the Massachusetts legislature is debating how to spend $3.8 billion in federal covid relief funds. I searched the House version of the bill and found 4 references to “test” or “testing” that totaled $175k. Of course, I could easily have missed something, and no doubt there are many other relevant appropriation bills. But at the end of the day, the brute fact is that 21 months into this pandemic the Boston Public Schools are unable to test students in a minimally competent way to nip an outbreak in the bud or expeditiously reopen a school. They can only test 100 kids a day! There are 54,000 kids in Boston Public Schools, and they can only find the capacity to test 100 kids! Of course, for such a small outbreak the capacity exists in the Boston area to test all the students right away. Why not set up an emergency testing site at the school, or put the students on a bus (masked, windows down) and take them to a testing site? Where is the mayor? Where is the governor? Where are the state and local education officials? Whose hair is on fire? And what on earth will happen if there is a major case surge this winter?
State limits Boston’s request for remote learning at Curley School following COVID outbreak - The state’s education commissioner informed the Boston school system Friday that he will only approve remote learning for four days at the Curley K-8 School following a COVID-19 outbreak, and urged the school system to reopen the school as soon as possible. City officials abruptly closed the Jamaica Plain school after dismissal Tuesday, following the an outbreak of COVID-19 that has resulted in at least 46 cases, and are not planning to reopen it until Nov. 22 -- a date school officials may have to reconsider based on the commissioner’s decision.“Maximizing safe in-person learning remains a top priority for the Department of Elementary and Secondary Education this school year,” the commissioner, Jeffrey Riley, wrote in a letter to Boston school officials. “I am particularly concerned that remote learning will not fully meet the academic and social emotional needs of our students, especially students with disabilities, English learners, and other vulnerable students.” Under the waiver Riley approved, he is allowing the Boston schools to count remote learning on Wednesday and Friday of this week and on Monday and Tuesday of next week toward its legal obligation to provide students with 180 days of schooling. (Thursday was Veterans Day and classes were not held.)
Ohio school COVID-19 cases increase for third consecutive week – COVID-19 cases reported by Ohio schools rose for the third straight week on Thursday, following a statewide increasing trend as the Delta variant wave keeps case rates high.K-12 schools reported 6,781 new coronavirus cases among students and staff members to the Ohio Department of Health as of Sunday, bringing the school-year total to 86,103. This week’s increase is the highest since Oct. 7: 1,496 (54%) of the 2,767 schools, districts, private schools, vocational schools, preschools and other non-college institutions that ODH tracks have reported a case this school year. That’s 13 more schools than last week.The median number of cases among schools with at least one infection is 18 cases, while the median number for school districts is 89 cases.73,089 (85%) of Ohio’s school cases are students and 13,014 (15%) are staff members, which include teachers, administrators, coaches and support staff. Last school year, students were roughly 2 in 3 cases, and staff were 1 in 3. Cincinnati Public Schools, a district of more than 34,000 students, leads the state with 2,062 cases, ahead of Columbus City Schools at 1,196 cases. Columbus is among five Franklin County districts in the top 10. 99.8% of Ohio’s public school students are in school five days a week as of last week, according to data from the Ohio Department of Education. However, about 50% of students are in a district that requires masks for all or some students, down from 60% two weeks prior. The other half of students learn where masks are optional.
Jill Biden makes pitch to parents for kids' COVID-19 vaccinations -First lady Jill Biden on Monday urged parents to vaccinate their children against COVID-19, saying that it’s the parents’ choice but arguing that vaccines are best way to protect children. “From the day you held your sweet, fragile, little baby for the first time, you have made the choice, again and again, to keep your child safe. Getting your kids the Covid-19 vaccine is your choice, too. Make the decision to protect your children with the same vaccine that has already saved millions of lives,” Biden wrote in a CNN op-ed. While traveling to more than 30 states this year, she said parents have asked her when the vaccine for children is coming. “Now, it's here — not just another way to protect your kids against Covid-19, but the best way. It's been thoroughly reviewed and rigorously tested. It's safe. It's free and it's available for every eligible child in the country,” she said. Biden and Surgeon General Vivek Murthy visited Texas Children's Hospital in Houston on Sunday to urge parents to vaccinate children ages 5 to 11. Biden said the administration worked closely with pediatricians and pharmacists so that schools and more than 100 children’s hospitals can offer the vaccine shots, reiterating the convenience for parents taking children to get vaccinated. “Parenthood and worrying go hand-in-hand. It's what we do. I can't promise you that the dangers of the world will become any less frightening. Just wait until your kids start driving!” she said. “With this vaccine, however, we can help take care of at least one of those worries. A big one.”
Why Minnesota, Known for Charter Schools, Is Now Joining a Nationwide Trend for Community Schools - Minnesota, which was the first in the nation to pass a charter school law in 1991, could also be described as the land of school choice. Beyond charters, Minnesota is also home to the nation’s first comprehensive open enrollmentlaw, dating back to the late 1980s, which allows K-12 students to attend any public school in a district of their choice, provided there is space in the host district. It would be hard to describe the rapid growth of charter schools and school choice in the North Star State as some sort of natural occurrence, driven solely by parents and teachers hungry for alternative learning environments. But Minnesota—as well as many other states and the federal government—is awakening to another approach to school improvement that is expanding, from the ground up, in a more natural way: the full-service community schools model. In contrast to charter schools and other market-based approaches to school improvement, full-service community schools offer a holistic approach to education that is about lifting up students and the communities they live in, rather than pitting schools against one another in the interest of greater choice and competition. An overview of Minnesota’s groundbreaking charter school legislation refers to it as an attempt to fund “results-oriented, student-centered public schools.” This is an optimistic assessment of the Minnesota law that touches on the educational aspirations that the charter schools system carries, but it entirely sidesteps another important aspect of the system: the connection between charter schools and the privatization of public education.Thirty years after Minnesota’s charter school and open enrollment laws ushered in a mostly unregulated era of school choice, many states—including Minnesota—and federal officials may be turning their attention to the reform model offered by full-service community schools.Full-service community schools offer a holistic approach to education that is about much more than students’ standardized test scores or the number of AP classes a school offers. Instead, this model seeks to reposition schools as community resource centers that also provide academic instruction to K-12, or even Pre-K-12, students.In Minnesota, a handful of districts have adopted this model, often with impressive results.
Student suspended for saying there are only two genders: lawsuit --A New Hampshire teenager is suing his school district after he was allegedly suspended from athletics for saying there are “only two genders.”The Exeter High School freshman said in the suit that he was hit with a one-game football suspension in September stemming from a text conversation he had with another student off school grounds.The lawsuit was filed Nov. 4 through an attorney with the Christian organization Cornerstone Action with the claim that he stated a Catholic-based belief that there are only male and female genders, the Portsmouth Herald reported.The kid’s lawsuit also claims Exeter’s policy on non-binary gender identity and pronouns infringes on his First Amendment rights.The policy says students have the right to be addressed by a name and pronoun of their choosing related to their gender identities and also says those who don’t recognize others’ gender identities or pronouns are violating the policy.The student doesn’t deny he violated the policy, the lawsuit says, according to the Herald.“He in fact denied, and will continue to deny, that any person can belong to a gender other than that of ‘male’ or ‘female’” the lawsuit says. The student, it goes on, “will never refer to any individual person using plural pronouns such as ‘they,’ using contrived pronouns such as ‘ze,’ or with any similar terminology that reflects values which (the student) does not share.”
Parents sue school after girl, 12, uses boy's name – A group of Wisconsin parents is suing a school district over its policy allowing minor students to change their name and gender pronouns at school without parental permission. According to the Wisconsin Institute for Law (WILL) and Liberty and Alliance Defending Freedom (ADF), two sets of Wisconsin parents have filed a lawsuit against the Kettle Moraine School District. One of the couples claims they had to withdraw their 12-year-old from the district to “protect her mental health and preserve their parental role.” They are upset the school allowed their child to go by a boy’s name and use male gender pronouns without their consent. The other couple in the lawsuit said they joined to make sure the same thing doesn’t happen to their children. Their argument is that the district’s policy violated their rights as parents. “The parents in this case know and love their daughter and are doing their best to get her the expert care she needs in her battle with anxiety and depression. We are asking the court to respect the serious concerns of these parents by ensuring Kettle Moraine School District swiftly changes its policy that is undermining parents and harming children,” said senior counsel Kate Anderson, director of the ADF Center for Parental Rights. ADF is a conservative Christian advocacy group based in Arizona. Officials say that attorneys wrote a letter to the school district expressing the concerns of their clients and asking it to change its policy. The district reportedly did not respond, which resulted in the parents filing the lawsuit.
New Hampshire Gov. Sununu condemns tweet offering $500 'bounty' on teachers - New Hampshire Gov. Chris Sununu (R) on Thursday condemned a tweet from a local conservative group offering a $500 bounty to anyone who reports a teacher for breaking a new state law that, in part, limits discussion of critical race theory in the school system. The New Hampshire chapter of Moms for Liberty, a national nonprofit organization that — according to its website — stands up for "parental rights at all levels of government," tweeted earlier this month that it had $500 for "the person that first successfully catches a public school teacher" breaking the Right to Freedom from Discrimination in Public Workplaces and Education, which passed June 25. In response to questions from other Twitter users, the group said it would pay through PayPal and add "CRT bounty's in the notes" of the digital payment application. The law in question bars teachers for discussing racial groups or genders in a manner suggesting that one group is "superior or inferior" to another group, or is "inherently racist, sexist, or oppressive, whether consciously or unconsciously." In an emailed statement to an NBC news station in Boston, a spokesperson for Sununu said the governor "condemns the tweet referencing ‘bounties’ and any sort of financial incentive is wholly inappropriate and has no place."
Fight in school parking lot ends with three students shot - A fight broke out in a school parking lot in Colorado that ended with three students shot and in the hospital. The Aurora Police Department said in a statement Friday a fight broke out at Hinkley High School around lunchtime and ended with a 17-year-female, 17-year-old male and 16 year-old male in the hospital. One of the teenagers was taken to the hospital from the scene while the other two self transported themselves to the hospital. In an update on Twitter, the department said they have charged a 16-year-old boy with attempted murder in connection to the shooting, although the police chief said there were “multiple shooters.” Multiple guns were used in the fight as multiple different shell casings of different calibers were found at the scene. It is an ongoing investigation as it is not clear the role the victims played in the fight. The police did not release their conditions in the hospital. “The violence, especially involving our youth, must stop. We have a call to action for parents: check on your kids. Kids are getting guns from somewhere. We need parents to be more involved and start checking their kids' rooms and vehicles and pay attention to who they are associating with,” the department said in the statement. This follows another shooting that occurred at Aurora Central High School, down the road from Hinkley High School, on Monday, The Associated Press reported. All the victims in that shooting are expected to survive.
COVID-19 leads to a decrease in prosocial behaviour among disadvantaged adolescents If a family member falls ill with COVID-19, this has a particularly negative effect on young people from an economically disadvantaged and less educated background. These adolescents not only fall behind in school, their non-cognitive abilities also suffer: they are less prosocial than before. This means that they behave less generously, altruistically, and cooperatively. Moreover, their willingness to trust others decreases. In addition to declining academic performance, this development can also bring disadvantages for them in the long term. The study was published on 8 November, in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (PNAS). Originally, the aim of the scientists was to find out to what extent the prosocial behaviour of young people differs according to socio-economic status. To this end, they collected data from 5,000 high school students aged between 15 and 17 from three French regions in the autumn of 2019. Even then, four experiments revealed a gap between adolescents from socioeconomically well situated families on the one side, and disadvantaged ones on the other. Students from less well-off families with a lower level of education behaved less prosocially. In a second round in the spring of 2020, 363 young people took part in the same four experiments, significantly fewer than in the previous round, due to the lockdown at the time. The researchers found that an infection within one’s own family more than doubled the gap between the different population strata. While the behaviour of young people with a high social status hardly changed in this case, those with a low social status behaved significantly less prosocially. In the past, several studies have already shown that the pandemic affects people from economically disadvantaged and less educated backgrounds more strongly in the areas of health, labour, and education. Sutter’s team now showed to what extent COVID-19 has a negative impact on prosocial behaviour – with consequences. Economists agree that non-cognitive skills such as prosociality contribute significantly to success in later working life. ‘In the long term, this development could have a negative impact on the opportunities of those affected on the labour market,’ said Sutter.
Major staffing shortages at schools throughout the US due to COVID-19 pandemic - As winter approaches, the COVID-19 pandemic is accelerating in the US and schools coast to coast are experiencing major staffing shortages. As a result of widespread infections and a mass exodus of teachers from the profession, roughly 40 percent of all district leaders and principals describe their current staff shortages as “severe” or “very severe,”according to a survey by EdWeek Research Center conducted last month. The entire fall semester has been utterly chaotic for educators, coinciding with the Delta surge of the pandemic that has killed over 150,000 Americans. The latest data from the American Association of Pediatrics released Monday showed another 122,000 official infections among children, an increase of 22 percent from two weeks ago. The AAP report indicates 11 additional deaths last week, bringing the cumulative number of child deaths to 625. The situation is most dire across the Midwest and Northwest, as well as some states in the West. One of the worst affected states is Michigan, where schools were once again the number one source of COVID-19 outbreaks last week. Overall cases in the state are quickly approaching record highs, with the number of active cases now exceeding all previous points in the pandemic at over 319,000. This number is over 25,000 more than the nearly 294,000 active cases at the last peak on April 25. According to the Michigan state government’s website, schools account for half of all active outbreaks in the state, or 480 out of a total 821. Outbreaks forcing an end to in-person classes or the outright canceling of classes have been widespread . Waterford Mott High School in Oakland County, Michigan, went virtual recently due to illness and a staffing shortage. A local ABC affiliate cited a letter from the school’s principal, Craig Blomquist, to families of students explaining that the building was closed until next Monday due to staffing shortages. Galesburg-Augusta Community Schools in Galesburg also canceled classes for next Monday and Tuesday, citing a high number of absences due to illness and a shortage of certified teachers. Grand Rapids Public Schools (GRPS) has canceled two days of school in December for “COVID-19 wellness days,” which will not be made up later in the school year. GRPS spokesperson John Helmholdt stated in a district email, “This school year has been particularly trying as we are facing a historic teacher and support staff shortage crisis coupled with the continued global pandemic.”
Canada admits aerosols are major source of COVID-19 transmission after nearly two years of denying it -- Almost two years into a pandemic that has claimed the lives of close to 30,000 Canadians, Canada’s Liberal government has admitted what scientific experts have long insisted—aerosols play a major role in the transmission of COVID-19. Indeed, research has conclusively demonstrated that aerosols are the virus’ principal means of transmission. Yet up until late last week, the Public Health Agency of Canada (PHAC), which is overseen by the federal Liberal government, stubbornly insisted that respiratory droplets are far and away the most important means by which COVID-19 is transmitted. This is because highlighting the key role aerosols play in spreading the virus points to the dangers people face when they congregate in workplaces, schools, buses and subway cars, and thus cuts across the ruling elite’s drive to corral working people to return to work amid the pandemic. Chief Public Health Officer Theresa Tam tweeted the new public health advice concerning aerosols late Friday afternoon. “Since the outset of the pandemic, we’ve learned a lot about the SARS2 virus that causes COVID-19,” the tweet read. “Importantly, we’ve learned how the virus can linger in fine aerosols and remain suspended in the air we breathe. Much like expelled smoke lingers in poorly ventilated spaces, the SARS2 virus can remain suspended in the air, with those in close proximity to the infected person inhaling more aerosols, especially in indoor and poorly ventilated spaces.” The PHAC has not followed up Tam’s tweets, which appear to have been timed to minimize their impact, with a public information offensive to alert the population as to the dangers of aerosol transmission. Nor is it advocating any policy changes to prevent a surge of infections, as people increasingly congregate indoors during the cold winter months. The PHAC’s belated admission constitutes a devastating indictment of the political establishment’s prioritization of corporate profits over human life, which has gone hand-in-hand with a systematic repudiation of a science-based response to the virus. Until Tam’s tweet, the federal government had treated aerosol transmission of COVID-19 as little more than an afterthought. Not until November 2020, long after scientific investigations had demonstrated the centrality of airborne spread, did the PHAC even admit that aerosol transmission was possible. Moreover, as the CBC noted at the time, this change to the PHAC’s COVID-19 guidance was done “quietly,” and was not accompanied by any campaign to warn the public of the danger of aerosol transmission, let alone any changes in government policy.
Pregnant people infected with coronavirus more at risk for stillbirths: CDC study Pregnant people infected with COVID-19 are more at risk for stillbirths, a Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) analysis found, providing further evidence supporting COVID-19 vaccines for those carrying a child. The analysis released on Friday determined that 1.26 percent of deliveries between March 2020 and September 2021 among people infected with COVID-19 resulted in stillbirths, compared to 0.65 percent of deliveries among non-infected people. Out of the 1.2 million deliveries across 736 hospitals in that time period, 21,653 occurred among people with COVID-19, amounting to about 1.73 percent. The CDC defined stillbirths as fetal deaths that occurred at at least 20 weeks' gestation. The agency also published a report on the 15 deaths associated with COVID-19 among pregnant people in Mississippi between March 1, 2020 and Oct. 6, 2021. These 15 fatalities occurred among people with confirmed or suspected COVID-19 during pregnancy or within 90 days after pregnancy. None of the pregnant people were fully vaccinated. As of September, about 97 percent of pregnant people hospitalized with confirmed COVID-19 this year were unvaccinated. The risk for stillbirth increased when the delta variant was predominant in the U.S. starting in July. Between July and September, 2.7 percent of deliveries among infected pregnant people resulted in a stillbirth, while 0.63 percent of deliveries among noninfected people had the same outcome. Before the delta variant was dominant, 0.98 percent of deliveries among those with COVID-19 resulted in a stillbirth, compared to 0.64 percent of deliveries among noninfected people. The risk of stillbirth is rare, but the rate among COVID-19-infected pregnant people was higher than the pre-pandemic rate of 0.59 percent.
Women with long COVID-19 may need targeted rehabilitation to help counter problems with physical activity tolerance Women with long COVID experience heart rate irregularities in response to physical exertion, and this has the potential to constrain not only exercise tolerance but free-living physical activity (1). In perspective of the greater prevalence of age-related physical disability among women, compared to men, these findings highlight a need for targeted rehabilitation programmes to manage the consequences of persistent heart and lung problems in women with lingering COVID-19 related symptoms. That’s according to new research published today in The Physiological Society’s journal Experimental Physiology. The control and experimental groups were matched on age and body mass index, providing greater certainty that the present findings were attributed to long COVID syndrome rather than underlying differences related to ageing or obesity. Specifically, heart rate was reduced during physical exertion, and recovery (i.e., the slowing of heart rate back to the baseline) was delayed after the exertion among SARS-CoV-2 participants despite a similar distance traveled and ratings-of-perceived exertion to controls. Women reporting shortness of breath, or joint / muscle aches, and at the time of testing achieved a lower proportion of predicted 6-minute walk test distance compared to controls as well as SARS-CoV-2 participants not actively experiencing such symptoms. Furthermore, more abnormal heart rate responses were associated with a greater number of days experiencing shortness of breath at illness onset, and poorer ability for gas exchange in the lungs.
CDC panel endorses COVID-19 vaccine boosters for all adults -A key outside advisory group to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) has endorsed the use of COVID-19 booster shots for all adults, a one-size-fits-all approach designed to simplify eligibility. If CDC Director Rochelle Walensky signs off on the broader use, as expected, the extra shots will be available immediately to all adults, as long as they are six months past the final dose of a Pfizer or Moderna vaccine, or two months after a Johnson & Johnson dose. The recommendation from the panel comes just hours after the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) authorized both Pfizer and Moderna's booster shots for everyone over the age of 18. Pfizer applied to the FDA earlier this month for an expansion of the emergency authorization for its booster shot to make it available to anyone 18 or older. Moderna announced just this week that it too had asked the FDA to allow its booster to be given to all adults. Boosters for everyone has always been the Biden administration’s goal, but until now federal health authorities have stopped short of such a policy, and instead recommended boosters for only specific populations — those over age 65, anyone at high risk because of work or where they live, or those with an underlying medical condition. The primary COVID-19 vaccination continues to provide good protection against severe disease and death, even as effectiveness against milder infection has waned. But cases have been steadily rising across the country, and authorities have said they want to stave off another winter surge. The current recommendations, while fairly broad, have caused confusion. While people over the age of 65 are most at risk from waning vaccine immunity, fewer than 40 percent of them have received a booster, according to CDC data. "The current guidelines, though well-intentioned and thoughtful, generate an obstacle to uptake of boosters. In pursuit of precision, they create confusion," Nirav Shah, president of Association of State and Territorial Health Officials, told the panel. The panel did not make a distinction in their recommendation between the two types of mRNA vaccines, despite the potential for increased risk of myocarditis — a type of heart inflammation — in young men after receiving Moderna's vaccine.
Some Immunocompromised People Can Get Fourth Dose -Certain immunocompromised people can now receive, and in some cases should receive, a fourth dose of COVID-19 vaccine, the CDC said in updated interim clinical guidance this week."Moderately or severely immunocompromised" adults ages 18 and up who received an additional dose of Pfizer or Moderna's mRNA vaccines may now receive a booster dose of Pfizer, Moderna, or Johnson & Johnson at least 6 months after completing their third dose, the agency said.They added that if a moderate to severely immunocompromised adult has received a two-dose series of Pfizer or Moderna, and more than 28 days has elapsed, that person should "immediately" receive an additional dose of Pfizer or the full-dose volume of 100 μg for Moderna, followed by a single booster dose with any of the three authorized vaccines at least 6 months later.However, a moderate or severely immunocompromised "person who received one primary dose of [Johnson & Johnson] COVID-19 vaccine should not receive more than two COVID-19 vaccine doses," according to the guidance.These individuals should receive a second dose of Pfizer, Moderna (at the booster dose volume of 50 μg) or Johnson & Johnson at least 2 months later. "A patient's clinical team is best positioned to determine the appropriate timing of vaccination," the recommendations said. CDC noted the difference in the two recommendations, bolding the word "may" for those who received a primary series with mRNA vaccine and "should" for those who received a primary series with Johnson & Johnson.
The White House estimates nearly 10 percent of younger children have gotten a first shot. - The pace of vaccination against the coronavirus among newly eligible younger children is accelerating, and nearly 10 percent of the nation’s 5- to 11-year olds have already had their first shot, the White House estimated on Wednesday. Last week alone, 1.7 million young children were vaccinated, about double the previous week, Jeff Zients, President Biden’s coronavirus response coordinator, said at a White House Covid-19 briefing. The administration estimates that by the end of Wednesday, 2.6 million of the 28 million children in that age group will have had their first of two doses of the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine, the only one currently authorized for them.“Just 10 days into our program being in full strength, we’re at 10 percent of kids,” Mr. Zients said. “For perspective, it took about 50 days for us to reach 10 percent of adults with one shot. And when the polio vaccine was first rolled out for kids in the 1950s it took about three months to cross two and a half million shots in arms.”The pediatric figures come as the nation is about to cross another vaccination threshold: Nearly 80 percent of Americans aged 12 and older have had their first shot, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.The figure suggests slow but steady acceptance of the vaccine. This past summer, President Biden failed to meet his goal of having 70 percent of U.S. adults receive at least one dose by the July 4 holiday.Studies and real-world evidence show that coronavirus vaccinesare extremely effective at preventing hospitalization and death from Covid-19. During Wednesday’s briefing, Dr. Anthony S. Fauci, Mr. Biden’s top medical adviser for the pandemic, shared a slide deck showing data from states including Texas and Indiana to make that point.In Texas, Dr. Fauci said, unvaccinated people were 13 times more likely than fully vaccinated people to become infected with the coronavirus during the month of September, and 20 times more likely to die of Covid-19. In Indiana, during the week that began on Sept. 30, 1,447 people were hospitalized with Covid-19; about 10 were fully vaccinated. Of 219 who died, fewer than 15 were fully vaccinated.
Fauci says babies and toddlers could be eligible for COVID-19 vaccine by early 2022 -Director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases Anthony Fauci said Thursday that though he "can't guarantee it," babies and toddlers aged 6 months to 5 years could be eligible for COVID-19 vaccination by spring. "Hopefully within a reasonably short period of time, likely the beginning of next year in 2022, in the first quarter of 2022, it will be available to them," Fauci told Insider in an interview, though he cautioned that he was speculating, adding, "you've got to do the clinical trial." Pfizer-BioNTech previously stated that results from their clinical trial in children in the age ranges of 2 to 5 years and 6 months to 2 years are expected as soon as the fourth quarter of this year. According to a report by ABC Tampa in late October, Pfizer expects to apply this month for approval for its COVID-19 vaccine in children ages 6 months to 5 years, the last age range in the U.S. not yet being vaccinated. "The Food and Drug Administration and CDC won't approve the vaccine until there's some data showing safety and efficacy," Philip Landrigan, a pediatrician and immunologist at Boston College, told CNN Health earlier this month. "There's every reason to think that it will be safe, and it will be efficacious," Landrigan added. "But the agencies need to be cautious, justifiably so, and so they're not going to give the approval until they have the data." According to CNN, Pfizer is the furthest along in trials for those aged 6 months to 5 years, but Moderna is also conducting studies in very young children. "We don't have enough data now to present it for a regulatory approach, but right now, the data are being collected and analyzed," Fauci said when speaking to CNN earlier this month. "So we will be able to answer the question, I believe, within a reasonable period of time regarding the safety and the immunogenicity among those lower than 5 years old." According to CNN, Johnson & Johnson is currently in the first phase three study in adolescents ages 12 to 17 years old and expect results in the coming months. The White House announced Wednesday that 10 percent of children ages 5 to 11 have received their first coronavirus shot, following the approval of the Pfizer pediatric dose.
Texas doctor's privileges suspended for 'spreading dangerous misinformation' about COVID-19 --A Houston-based doctor has had her privileges suspended from her job for “spreading dangerous misinformation” about COVID-19. Houston Methodist Hospital spokesperson Patti Muck confirmed to The Washington Post on Monday that Mary Bowden's privileges were suspended. Bowden, an ear and throat doctor at the hospital, has tweeted multiple times on her personal account that “vaccine mandates are wrong.”A Houston-based doctor has had her privileges suspended from her job for “spreading dangerous misinformation” about COVID-19. Houston Methodist Hospital spokesperson Patti Muck confirmed to The Washington Post on Monday that Mary Bowden's privileges were suspended. Bowden, an ear and throat doctor at the hospital, has tweeted multiple times on her personal account that “vaccine mandates are wrong.”
New, Radically Different Covid Variant Getting Footholds Now as Media and Officials Remain Complacent --Yves Smith - Before we get into this post, we need to flag a major caveat: that the Covid variant that will be the major focus of this piece, B.1.640, looks as if it could largely or entirely escape the current vaccines because it is very different from wild type and Delta. Our GM was telling our Covid brain trust about this variant when it hadn’t even been given a designation, in late October, after it had been sequenced in Africa. It has started spreading and a case was sequenced in California. However, let us stress that how serious this variant is, or if it in the end even rates as serious, is not yet known. But what is disturbing is the failure of the press, even the scientifically-oriented press, to say much about variants. The charitable interpretation is that like so much other Covid-related messaging, no one want to spook the horses until they are sure some new potentially bad development really is bad But requiring that level of proof is what let Covid become a pandemic in the first place. GM explains that how we do science is part of the problem: There are large collaborations and whole labs that do things like following variants; the problem is that by the nature of the scientific process contrasted with the nature of the process of viral spread, one cannot wait for them to understand what is happening. So one has to look into the databases in real time and exchange information with other people who do the same. But another very real issue is that governments ex China have thrown in their lot with prioritizing business over public health. So they aren’t about to give the Confidence Fairy fainting spells by giving warnings about variant risk and spread, particularly since by the time it shows up in sequencing, an unknown number of people in the vicinity of the infected are almost certain to have been exposed.GM gave this high-level overview yesterday:The most likely future major developments of the pandemic fall into one of these three scenarios:
- 1. We get a second-generation Delta variant that has a major advantage over all other Delta lineages. This is the most likely one simply because right now 98% of the virus circulating around the world is Delta and Delta was the most fit variant to begin with.
- 2. We get a second-generation variant from one of the lineages that have still survived the Delta sweep that is capable of competing against Delta. Eyes are on Lambda/C.37 and Mu/B.1.621 and possibly P.1, because those are the only first-generation variants that still circulate in significant numbers in South America
- 3. Something new appears out of nowhere that is fitter than the rest. This will most likely come from Africa– there is no surveillance in the depths of the continent and there is no knowing what is brewing there.
Note, however, that there should be no expectation of another Delta-like sweep, i.e. something so much fitter than everything else that it displaces (almost) all other variants. Those may well be very rare events, it’s just that there an easily accessible peak in the fitness landscape in this case. We can end up with a zoo of variants of roughly comparable fitness. Which will be worse than having a single dominant one, as then vaccines will have to target all of them, while immunity from infection with one will not work well against the others.
Former FDA head warns of post-Thanksgiving spike in COVID-19 cases --The former head of the Food and Drug Administration warned Sunday that there’s “no question” that there will be a surge in COVID-19 cases after Thanksgiving gatherings.Dr. Scott Gottlieb, who sits on the board of Pfizer, said he anticipates the uptick in cases already seen in more than a dozen states to continue after the Nov. 25 holiday.“We’re going to see a post-holiday spike, there’s no question about that. People are exhausted right now, but we need to remain vigilant just for a little bit longer,” Gottlieb said on “Face the Nation.”Gottlieb said that particularly vulnerable to rising case numbers are regions that weren’t hit as hard by the latest Delta wave.“If you’re in the southwest right now, you’re in the Great Lakes region, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Michigan, you’re in parts of New England or western Pennsylvania or northern New York, or certain mountain states like Colorado, things don’t look good,” he said.“You haven’t experienced the Delta wave yet, and things are going to get worse before they get better,” he said.
Survey reveals one in three Texas children have had COVID-19 - In October, the University of Texas Health Science Center at Houston and the Texas Department of State Health Services published a report, titled Texas Coronavirus Antibody Response Survey (Texas CARES), which found that over one-third (36.5 percent) of children in the state have been infected with COVID-19. Additionally, the results indicate that roughly one-quarter of educational professionals have been infected with the virus. The report measured infections within the 275-500 days preceding October 3, the maximum range within which infection-generated antibodies remain detectable via test. Since its publication, the percentage among children has increased somewhat to 36.96, indicating further infections. The results expose the massive fraud of the state’s portrayal of the pandemic, as well as the lie propagated by governments around the world that COVID-19 rarely affects children. The Texas government, in line with the entire political establishment and corporate media, has covered up the scope of child infections and deaths. Texas’ COVID-19 dashboard only reports the age distribution for 3 percent of infections, which the American Academy of Pediatrics (AAP) report on November 4 noted, “resulted in an undercount of child cases” in the state. The current dashboard makes it appear that ages 0-19 years account for only 7.7 percent of infections as of November 5.
3 snow leopards killed by COVID at Lincoln Children’s Zoo in Nebraska -The pandemic has claimed three more lives.The three snow leopards at the Lincoln Children’s Zoo in Nebraska died from COVID-19 complications. In October, the leopards and two Sumatran tigers tested positive for the virus and were treated with steroids and antibiotics. While tigers Axl and Kumar recovered, leopards Ranney, Everest and Makalu succumbed. “It is very tough to lose any animal unexpectedly, especially one as rare and loved as the snow leopard,” a zoo spokesperson told local 1011 News. The zoo remains open to the public.
COVID-19 outbreak kills 8 in Connecticut nursing home -Eight residents at a Connecticut nursing home have died in a COVID-19 outbreak at the facility in less than seven weeks, administrators said.Sixty-seven residents and 22 staffers at Geer Nursing and Rehabilitation Center in North Canaan have tested positive for the virus since Sept. 30, administrators said in a statement Friday.“Sadly, we have lost 8 residents with serious underlying health issues to Covid,” the nursing home said. “We are encouraged to see 69 staff and residents already recovered and coming off isolation.”A total of 48 residents and 21 staffers have since recovered at the facility, which is now being monitored by the state Department of Public Health, NECN reported.“Family members of residents in long-term care facilities should also encourage their loved ones being cared for in these facilities to get a booster vaccine,” a DPS spokesperson told the station.Of the 89 people infected, 87 staffers and residents were fully vaccinated at the nursing home, which houses only 70 residents, NECN reported.All staff at the facility are continuing to wear masks while “practicing heightened infection control procedures,” a statement on its website reads.“In addition, we are proud that 99% of our staff have chosen to become vaccinated,” the statement continued. “Unfortunately, none of this is a guarantee — there are reports of vaccinated individuals testing positive for Covid.”
New Mexico hospitals enact crisis standards of care amidst jump of COVID-19 cases - Albuquerque, New Mexico’s Presbyterian Health Services and University of New Mexico (UNM) Health announced on November 11 that they were activating “crisis standards of care” (CSC). In addition to their main hospitals, the announcement affects other Presbyterian and UNM facilities in the Albuquerque metro area. Another large hospital system in Albuquerque, Lovelace Health System, released a statement saying, “We will continue to collaborate with the state and the hospitals across New Mexico to fight this pandemic and care for our patients, especially those most vulnerable. At this time, we have not implemented crisis standards of care. 88% of patients hospitalized in our facilities are receiving care for non-COVID related conditions.” As reported by the World Socialist Web Site on November 1 in relation to the crisis in neighboring Colorado, CSC can “involve redirecting less experienced nurses to help in intensive care units, activating the National Guard to take over clerical and nonmedical tasks, and even mobilizing volunteers and family members to assist patients with hygiene in a last-gasp effort to free up medical personnel for more intensive tasks.” Another possible aspect of the standards is the imposition of rationing of medical care by utilizing a triage, based on a points system, that would relegate patients to standard medical beds even though they might be in dire need of intensive care unit treatment. Despite the state’s relatively high, and highly touted, rate of vaccinations (63 percent) as well as its continuing—though poorly enforced—indoor mask mandate, Delta-driven COVID-19 cases have been surging in New Mexico faster than in any other state. Since the last week in October, there has been a 48 percent increase in new daily cases, with the seven-day average case count reaching 1,334 on November 13, with 512 hospitalizations and an average of 8 deaths per day. Since the pandemic began, there have been more than 292,000 confirmed COVID-19 infections in the state and at least 5,171 have died from the disease. Cases have been rising since they hit a recent low of 40 per day in early July.
US COVID cases start to rise again as the holidays approach -It's a worrying sign for the U.S. ahead of the holiday travel season: coronavirus infections are rising in more than half of all states. Experts warn this could be the start of an extended winter surge.The rise is a turnaround after cases had steadily declined from mid September to late October. The country is now averaging more than 83,000 cases a day — about a 14% increase compared to a week ago, and 12% more than two weeks ago."I hate to say it, but I suspect we're at the start of a new winter surge," says Dr. George Rutherford, an epidemiologist at the University of California, San Francisco.Growing outbreaks in the Midwest and Northeast are most responsible for pushing up the national numbers, and that comes after many weeks of high case counts and stress on states in the Mountain West where some hospitals are dealing with crisis levels of patients."There are still large swaths of the country under-immunized and even among states that are relatively well-vaccinated, like Colorado, New Mexico, Minnesota and Vermont, we're seeing sustained transmission," says Rutherford.The uptick in cases hasn't yet translated into a national spike in new hospital admissions, which tend to trail a rise in infections by several weeks. However, the grim situation in some parts of the West and upper Midwest offers a concerning picture for other states where cases are now climbing. "It's a marathon here," says Dr. Kencee Graves at the University of Utah Hospital, in Salt Lake City, Utah, who describes her state, like much of the Mountain West, as stuck in a "high plateau of a surge" where hospitals not only have an ICU full of COVID-19 patients, but also many other kinds of sick patients who need care.Despite the concerning trends, the expectation among experts who model the pandemic's course is that a surge will not bring the same level of death and severe disease as last year.
Fourteen consecutive weeks with more than 100,000 cases of COVID among US children - In its latest update on children and COVID, the American Academy of Pediatrics (AAP) noted that over the past week more than 122,000 children were infected with SARS-CoV-2, a 22 percent rise from two weeks ago. For 14 consecutive weeks, child COVID cases have remained above 100,000. This brings the total number of children who have tested positive as of November 11 to more than 6.6 million. Though children make up 22.2 percent of the US population, they currently comprise 27 percent of all reported weekly COVID cases. Eleven more children died in the course of the week, bringing the total number who have perished since the beginning of the pandemic to 625, according to official figures. In a typical flu season, the average number of pediatric deaths is approximately 130. Last year’s flu season saw only one child die, in part due to the limited measures in place to control the outbreak of SARS-CoV-2 throughout the country. Though it has been repeatedly stated that children rarely face severe consequences from COVID, these comparisons highlight the dangers the coronavirus poses to them. The terrible toll on children is somewhat overshadowed by the greater magnitude of devastation the pandemic has wrought on the population as a whole. At the same time, politicians and special interest groups, with the support of the corporate media and the teachers’ unions, have deliberately downplayed the real dangers children face, in accord with their drive to fully reopen the schools on the basis of in-person instruction. Schools remain a prime vector for the spread of the virus. It is impossible to objectively discuss COVID and children without also taking into consideration the entire COVID-19 landscape. Since the end of October, cases have been steadily rising in the US, with the seven-day average of cases nearing 85,000. Though deaths across the country have continued their decline, they remain high, with a daily average of 1,129. Hospitalizations, a more accurate and meaningful measure of severe infections, have increased in line with the surge in new infections. There are currently more than 47,100 people receiving treatment for COVID in US hospitals. Essentially every region in the US is presently experiencing a rise in cases or a persistently high number of cases. The situation in the Midwest and Northeast is particularly troubling, with infection rates soaring. Michigan is once more at the epicenter of the rapidly shifting COVID map. In its latest COVID update, the state government astoundingly reported over 23,000 new cases. According to the New York Times ’ COVID dashboard, the daily average of cases stands at 7,174 in Michigan, a 68 percent increase over 14 days. On a per-capita basis, 72 per 100,000 are becoming infected. The number hospitalized is closing in on 3,000, with a 31 percent increase in admissions over the past two weeks. Pediatric hospitalizations for COVID are also on the rise. The seven-day positivity rate has reached 16 percent.
US daily COVID-19 cases up nearly 27 percent in last three weeks -- COVID-19 cases in the U.S. are up nearly 27 percent in the last three weeks after steadily increasing since mid-October, according to data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC).The CDC reported that as of Nov. 14, the 7-day average was at 80,823 daily cases, up from 63,852 on Oct. 24, representing a 26.6 percent increase in three weeks time. The COVID-19 increase could be a troubling indicator for what is ahead in the U.S. if it follows Europe's lead into another coronavirus wave.The World Health Organization (WHO) has warned U.S. officials to be mindful of the increase of COVID-19 cases in Europe, the current epicenter of the coronavirus pandemic.As of last week, Europe was the only region in the world where COVID-19 cases and deaths were increasing, according to ABC News. Experts attribute the trend to large numbers of unvaccinated people in some countries, along with waning immunity with people not being up to speed on boosters and relaxed COVID-19 restrictions.The United States has also seen more pediatric cases of COVID-19 on a weekly basis. A report from the American Academy of Pediatrics showed that 122,000 cases of COVID-19 in children were recorded over this past week. Dr. Anthony Fauci, President Biden's chief medical advisor, has warned that if a low enough amount of Americans remain unvaccinated, a fifth wave of COVID-19 could take hold in the winter months. According to reports from The Washington Post, senior health officials in the Biden Administration are anxious about Europe's case load and are urgently pressing for booster shots to be made widely available to the public.
Canada heads toward deadly winter surge of COVID-19 - Canada is entering the second winter of the COVID-19 pandemic with all signs pointing to an impending surge of mass illness and death. With the blessing of the Trudeau Liberal government, provincial and territorial governments across the country have dismantled almost all public health measures designed to prevent viral transmission, while spreading the lie that the worst of the pandemic is over and insisting the population has to learn to “live with the virus.” Street scene from Vancouver, British Columbia (Wikimedia Commons) Infections are rising in the majority of provinces and territories as the country heads into the winter months when inclement weather forces people to congregate indoors, and viruses consequently spread much more rapidly. Alarming COVID-19 flashpoints are emerging in the prairie provinces of Manitoba and Saskatchewan, the northwestern Yukon Territory, and the Atlantic province of New Brunswick. Infections have also begun to spike again in Ontario and Quebec, Canada’s two most populous provinces. The two westernmost provinces of British Columbia and Alberta, which bore the worst of the early fall surge, are still recording elevated death rates. Data produced by biostatistician and educator Ryan Imgrund shows that with the exception of Saskatchewan, every province has a reproductive value, or Rt, greater than 1.0, which indicates an exponential growth of the pandemic. Among cities with the most explosive spread is Winnipeg, Manitoba, where infections are spiraling out of control with an Rt of 1.28. This figure means that 100 infected individuals will go on to infect 128 more. Even though Saskatchewan’s reproductive rate is below 1, its health care system is buckling under the weight of COVID-19 hospitalizations, which are the direct product of right-wing Premier Scott Moe’s decision to lift all public health restrictions last July. This led to a massive spike in new infections and hospitalizations in September and October. High numbers of hospitalizations have continued into November. Saskatchewan reported its worst month of the pandemic in October, when it recorded 156 deaths. This is more than in January of this year, before the widespread availability of vaccines.
Overseas travelers arriving in a major Chinese city are required to quarantine for 56 days — that's 28 days in a hotel and 28 days at home -Overseas travelers arriving in a northern Chinese city face a 56-day quarantine as part of the country's strategy to have zero COVID-19 cases, The New York Times reported on Wednesday.Shenyang, in China's northeast Liaoning province, is requiring travelers from overseas to spend their first 28 days in the country in a hotel, according to the city's restriction policy.The restrictions, which were implemented in mid-October, say that travelers must stay in their hotel room and aren't allowed to open the door except for food deliveries.They're also tested for COVID-19 seven times during the 28-day period in the hotel, the policy says.After spending four weeks in the hotel, travelers then have to stay inside their homes for another 28 days, where they shouldn't go out unless necessary, according to the policy.If they do go out, then they should avoid public transport and take personal protection with them, the policy says, adding that travelers will continue to be tested once every two weeks during the home quarantine.Shenyang's restrictions come as China maintains strict coronavirus rules by sticking to its "zero COVID-19" strategy. The last time that Shenyang reported a COVID-19 case was in July, The Times reported, citing state-run news agency Xinhua.
With COVID-19 out of control, German infectious disease agency expects ICUs to be overwhelmed - Germany’s COVID-19 infection rate has hit a new record every day for the past week, with the seven-day incidence Sunday reaching 289 infections per 100,000 inhabitants. The Robert Koch Institute (RKI), Germany’s federal infectious disease agency, reported Friday 48,600 new infections and 191 deaths for the previous 24 hours. Incidence rates as of Friday are particularly high in the states of Saxony (569 infections per 100,000 residents over the past seven days), Thuringia (491) and Bavaria (455). Schleswig-Holstein (94) is the only state with a seven-day incidence below the 100 mark. Four counties already have an incidence of over 1,000, which means one in every 100 residents got infected within the past week. As infections surge, so do hospitalizations and deaths. The hospitalization incidence rate for COVID-19 is now 4.7 hospitalizations per 100,000 people, and 26 hospitalized cases per 100,000 inhabitants for those over 80 years of age. On Sunday, the number of COVID-19 patients being treated in intensive care rose above 3,000. The situation is becoming increasingly disastrous. The latest weekly RKI report expects “there will be a further increase in serious illnesses and deaths and that the available intensive care treatment capacities will be exceeded.” RKI head Lothar Wieler warned at a press conference on Friday of the dangerous effects of the current wave of the pandemic. Of 50,000 newly infected people every day, around 3,000 will end up in hospital, 350 will require intensive care and 200 will die, he calculated. It’s “five past twelve on the clock,” he added. As with the previous pandemic waves, outbreaks are increasing in elderly care and nursing homes, as well as in hospitals. Last week there were 119 new outbreaks in medical treatment facilities and 161 in elderly care and nursing homes. It is not uncommon for these outbreaks to be fatal. Last week, four residents died in a nursing home in Ãœberlingen (Baden-Württemberg) and 16 in a retirement home in Brandenburg. The number of cases and outbreaks is also increasing among children and adolescents. The age group of 5 to 14 year olds is still the age group with the highest incidence rate, with 545 infections per 100,000 people, followed by 15 to 34 year olds with an incidence of 302. There are an average of 70 outbreaks recorded per week at day care centers. There were 693 outbreaks in schools in the last four weeks, although the last two weeks have not yet been fully accounted for due to reporting delays.
"Most Vaccinated" Nation On Earth Cancels Christmas Over Surge In COVID Cases --Like much of Europe recently, Gibraltar, the British Overseas Territory located at the southern tip of the Iberian Peninsula, has seen a sudden uptick in COVID cases. The European COVID case-rate (7d avg) is now higher than the peak of the March wave.. And Gibraltar COVID cases are soaring "exponentially" according to the government... In response to this sudden surge in COVID cases, the government of Gibraltar recently announced that “official Christmas parties, official receptions and similar gatherings” have been canceled, and advised the public to avoid social events and parties for the next four weeks. Outdoor spaces are recommended over indoor ones, touching and hugging is discouraged, and mask wearing is advised. “The drastic increase in the numbers of people testing positive for Covid-19 in recent days is a stark reminder that the virus is still very prevalent in our community and that it is the responsibility of us all to take every reasonable precaution to protect ourselves and our loved ones,” Health Minister Samantha Sacramento said. There's just one problem. Gibraltar is the 'most vaccinated' nation on earth... In fact, over 118% of Gibraltar's population are fully vaccinated against COVID (above 100% due to jabs given to Spaniards who cross the border to work or visit the territory every day). Gibraltar is not alone in this 'mysterious' vaccine failure.
The Netherlands is maxing out its coronavirus testing capacity. - Soaring demand for Covid testing in the Netherlands, combined with a shortage of workers to book them, is pushing the limits of the country’s health services, officials have said.In a statement on Tuesday, the association of regional health services in the Netherlands called the increase in demand for new testing appointments “explosive,” adding that it was taking the approach of “all hands on deck.”Officials said that they aimed to reach up to 120,000 tests a day, depending on workers’ availability. On Monday, at least 116,000 new appointments were scheduled and 91,000 people were tested — new daily records — according to Jaap Eikelboom, a Covid program director for the health service association.“We are reaching the maximum of our capacity on all sides,” he said.
Governments reject pandemic controls amid record COVID-19 surge in Europe - It is two years exactly since the earliest documented case of COVID-19, which scientists have traced to November 17, 2019. Two years later, while lockdowns, social distancing and contact tracing policies have blocked the circulation of COVID-19 in China after less than 5,000 deaths, Europe is deep in yet another wave. Yesterday, over 290,000 people were diagnosed with COVID-19, and 4,141 died in Europe. Thus, even if the pandemic stabilized and somehow did not accelerate further, over 400,000 people would die this winter. In fact, the World Health Organization (WHO) has projected that with current policies, 500,000 more people will die of COVID-19 in Europe by February 1. Virologist Christian Drosten of Berlin’s Charité hospital has warned of 100,000 more deaths in Germany alone. Europe is currently reporting 2 million COVID-19 cases per week. Last week, daily infections set records in Germany (50,377), the Netherlands (20,168), Austria (13,152), and Greece (8,613) and continued at high levels in Britain (37,243), Russia (36,818) and the Czech Republic (11,514). France’s daily new cases nearly doubled over the last week from 10,050 to 19,778 yesterday. Over 1,000 deaths were recorded last week in Russia (8,593), Ukraine (4,590), Germany (1,194), Bulgaria (1,147), Poland (1,119) and Britain (1,083). Yet governments across Europe are rejecting social distancing and especially strict lockdowns that can halt circulation of the virus on the present, massive scale. Only the international mobilization of the working class, fighting for scientific policies of social distancing and contact tracing, can stop the transmission of the virus, end the pandemic and avert a massive loss of life. The strategy of the European ruling class is expressed most bluntly by the British government. Prime Minister Boris Johnson infamously stated, “No more f…ing lockdowns, let the bodies pile high in their thousands.” Now, London proposes to allow the virus to spread across the population and become endemic, as UK Secretary of State for Education Minister Nadhim Zahawi said earlier this month: “[w]e will, I hope, be the first major economy to transition from pandemic to endemic …” If London boasts of its strategy of “herd immunity” via mass infection, the “mitigation” strategy of other European governments is not substantially different. Berlin, amid its greatest ever surge of COVID-19, is moving to end its official declaration of an “epidemic situation of national scope,” ending the legal basis for public health measures against the virus. In Paris, Health Minister Olivier Véran has boasted that vaccines are “100 percent effective against lockdowns.”
Second U.S. Case of Monkeypox This Year Is Discovered in Maryland - A case of monkeypox, a rare but potentially serious viral illness, was identified in a Maryland resident who had recently returned from Nigeria, making it the second case in the United States this year, health officials said. They said the risk that the virus would spread was low.The person was in isolation with mild symptoms but was not hospitalized, the Maryland Department of Health said in astatement on Tuesday. The agency did not identify the traveler.This is the second confirmed case of monkeypox in the United States within the past few months. The first infection was discovered in July in a Texas resident who had also returned from Nigeria, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said at the time.In a statement on Wednesday, the C.D.C. said it was working with an unidentified airline and with health officials to reach anyone who may have been in contact with the Maryland traveler. However, the agency said, fellow passengers had a low chance of having contracted the virus through respiratory droplets because they were required to wear masks to prevent the spread of the coronavirus.“No special precautions are recommended at this time for the general public,” the Maryland health authorities said in the statement, adding that they had identified and are following up with people who may have been in contact with the traveler.Monkeypox — so named because it was first identified in laboratory monkeys — occurs mostly in Central and Western Africa, although it caused an outbreak in the United States in 2003 after it spread from imported African rodents to pet prairie dogs,the C.D.C. said.During that outbreak, 47 confirmed and probable cases of monkeypox were identified in six states, the C.D.C. said. Those who were infected reported symptoms such as fever, headaches, muscle aches and rash. No deaths were reported.Monkeypox is in the same family of viruses as smallpox, but it causes milder symptoms, according to the C.D.C. The illness typically begins with flulike symptoms and swelling of the lymph nodes and develops into a widespread rash on the face and body. Most infections last two to four weeks. In this case, laboratory testing at the C.D.C. showed that the patient had been infected with a strain of monkeypox most commonly seen in parts of West Africa, including Nigeria. Infections with that strain are fatal in about 1 in 100 people, the C.D.C. said, although rates may be higher in people with weakened immune systems.
Mosquitoes have a mutual symbiotic relationship with malaria-causing pathogen --Vanderbilt Professor of Biological Sciences Laurence J. Zwiebel is part of a team of researchers at Vanderbilt and the Johns Hopkins Malaria Research Institute who are working to understand how Plasmodium falciparium—the pathogen that causes malaria in humans—affects the mosquitoes that spread the disease. Through comparative analysis of mRNA between uninfected and infected mosquitoes old enough to transmit malaria, the researchers concluded that infected mosquitoes' sense of smell was significantly enhanced, thus improving their ability to find hosts, Zwiebel said. This suggests that infection with the parasite provides the mosquito an advantage that promotes reproduction and disease transmission. Beyond a more sensitive olfactory response, the researchers noted that the mRNA transcript profile of infected mosquitoes resembled that of much younger insects. "Infected mosquitoes revealed a physiology that had all the hallmarks of younger animals: more focused on reproduction, more robust immunologically and generally fitter than their uninfected middle-aged control siblings," Zwiebel said. "This suggests there is broad generalized adaptive advantage to keeping malaria pathogens in the population. That, in part, explains the global persistence of malaria." The research team conducted their study within the challenging context of real-world infections that occur at very low levels. "We took enormous pains to conduct this study using very low intensity infections that align with the natural levels of infection seen in Africa," Zwiebel said. The research was published in Scientific Reports.
PFAS exposure, high-fat diet drive prostate cells’ metabolism into pro-cancer state — Exposure to PFAS – a class of synthetic chemicals utilized in food wrappers, nonstick cookware and other products – reprograms the metabolism of benign and malignant human prostate cells to a more energy efficient state that enables the cells to proliferate at three times the rate of nonexposed cells, a new study in mice found. However, consuming a high-fat diet significantly accelerated development of tumors in the PFAS-exposed mice, said the scientists at the University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign and the U. of I. Chicago who conducted the research. PFAS is an abbreviation for perfluoroalkyl and polyfluoroalkyl substances, often described as “forever chemicals” because they don’t degrade naturally and persist as environmental pollutants. Studies have associated PFAS with harmful effects in laboratory animals. “Our data suggest that exposure to PFAS synergizes with dietary fat to activate the protein-coding gene PPARa, altering cells’ metabolism in ways that escalate the carcinogenic risk in normal prostate cells while driving tumor progression in malignant cells,” “These alterations in cell metabolism that occur downstream of PPARa activation may underpin the increased prostate cancer risk observed in men who are exposed to PFAS,”
Two Forever Chemicals More Toxic Than Previously Thought - A new analysis from the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) finds that forever chemicals are even more toxic than previously thought. The agency announced Tuesday that it was asking its Scientific Advisory Board to review draft scientific documents about the health impacts of two types of Per- and Polyfluoroalkyl Substances (PFAS): Perfluorooctanoic acid (PFOA) and Perfluorooctane sulfonic acid (PFOS)."EPA has transmitted to the Science Advisory Board four draft documents with recent scientific data and new analyses that indicate that negative health effects may occur at much lower levels of exposure to PFOA and PFOS than previously understood and that PFOA is a likely carcinogen," the agency wrote in a press release.PFAS are a type of chemical that have been widely used in consumer products and by industry since the 1940s, the EPA explained. They are concerning because they take a long time to break down and can accumulate in human bodies, animals and the environment. Common uses include fire extinguishing foam, food packaging and stain and water repellents.PFOA and PFOS are two of the most well known and well studied PFAS. PFOA was made by Dupont to make Teflon, while PFOS was used by 3M in Scotchgard, The Environmental Working Group (EWG) explained in a press release emailed to EcoWatch. The EPA pushed for them to be phased out in 2015, however, they persist in the environment, along with other PFAS.The EPA estimates that more than 200 million people in the U.S. are exposed to PFAS in their drinking water, and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has found PFAS in the blood of almost everyone it has tested, according to The Hill. The new draft documents will be used to develop enforceable drinking water limits for PFOA and PFOS, something the EPA has promised to do by 2023. They include the finding that exposure to the chemicals can reduce the efficacy of vaccinations, EWG said.
Neurotoxins in the environment are damaging human brain health, and fires and floods may make the problem worse -- In the summer of 2021, a toxic, smoky haze stemming from Western wildfires wafted across large parts of the United States, while hurricanes wrought extensive flooding in the southern and eastern U.S. Air quality websites such as AirNow warned of hazardous conditionson the U.S. East Coast from Western forest fires 3,000 miles away, with recommendations to stay indoors.Journalists reported the immediate impact of lives lost and homes and property destroyed, but more insidious dangers escaped notice. Few people realize that theseclimate change-fueled disasters—both fires and floods—could adversely affect human health in longer-term ways. I'm a scientist-author who studies the links between environmental factors and the development of neurological disorders, which is the subject of my recent book. My research on this topic adds to a growing body of evidence that more frequent environmental disastersmay be raising human exposure to neurotoxins.Wildfire smoke is a mixture of countless noxious chemical compounds. Fires burning across the warming planet—from California to Greece and Australia—are adding dangerous particulate matter to the atmosphere that includes neurotoxic heavy metals such as mercury, lead, cadmium and manganese nanoparticles. These toxins are an added environmental burden on top of the pollutants emitted by factories, power plants, trucks, automobiles and other sources.The greatest potential for health problems comes from minuscule particles, smaller than 2.5 microns—or PM 2.5(for context, the width of a human hair is typically 50 to 70 microns). This is, in part, because tiny particles are easily inhaled; from the lungs, they enter the bloodstream and circulate widely throughout the body. In the brain they may inflame the microglial cells, the brain's defensive cells, causing harm to neurons instead of protecting them. Studies show that these extremely tiny particles may damage neurons or brain cells bypromoting inflammation. Brain inflammation can lead to conditions like dementia and Parkinson's disease, a movement disorder in adults. In addition, prenatal and early-life exposure to air pollution has been linked to an increased risk of autism spectrum disorder in children. Research suggests that air pollution exposure during these critical periods, particularly in the third trimester of pregnancy and the first few months of life, may impair normal neural development.
He was told he had the N.B. 'mystery illness.' But a 2nd opinion says no as doubts swirl about diagnoses - When Luc LeBlanc received a phone call from his family doctor in March 2021 telling him he had a neurological illness — and it was terminal — his world crumbled. "I knew I had something wrong cognitively," said LeBlanc, 41, of Dieppe, N.B. "I was falling, I was having multiple episodes of passing out and cracked three ribs. I reached out to my family doctor to say, 'We need to push neurologists any way possible because I can't live like this.' " LeBlanc became part of a cluster of 48 New Brunswick residents diagnosed with a neurological condition of unknown cause, a medical enigma dubbed a "mystery illness." From late 2019 onward, LeBlanc and 47 other New Brunswick residents were identified as being part of a cluster of patients with a "progressive neurological syndrome of unknown etiology." That cluster was first identified by Moncton neurologist Dr. Alier Marrero. The people range in age from 18 to 85. They are men and women, with the majority living in Moncton. Others are in the Acadian Peninsula and on the north shore, close to the Quebec border. The first case was retroactively discovered by Marrero in 2015. By 2019, there were 11 cases displaying similar symptoms. By the following year, the count doubled to 24. By June 2021, 48 people were identified, the vast majority by Marrero. Six of the cluster had died. In March 2021, news of the cluster made headlines after a memo from the province's chief medical officer of health to physicians and other health-care professionals was leaked to the media. "If you have patients who you feel may meet the case definition for this novel neurological syndrome, please send a clinical referral to Dr. Alier Marrero at the Mind Clinic," the memo said. The symptoms were similar to Creutzfeld-Jacob disease (CJD), a rare and fatal brain wasting disorder, and included visual hallucinations, muscle twitching and aggression. An interim report released last week by the New Brunswick government revealed the number of deaths had risen from six to nine and that there were no known factors such as food, place of home or work that could be linked between the cases. Autopsies for those who died revealed findings including Alzheimer's, Lewy body dementia and cancer, and, according to Health Minister Dorothy Shephard, represent a group of "misclassified diagnoses."
Sensors show tropical heat stress conditions approaching upper limits of human survivability - A team of researchers affiliated with Monash University and one with Hasanuddin University in Indonesia has found that some people living in tropical regions are already living under conditions of heat stress that are approaching the upper limits of human survivability. In this new effort, the researchers noted that climate models used to predict heat conditions around the world are generally based on data from weather stations in relatively populated areas. Such data, they note, excludes conditions for people living in what they describe as informal settlements. To learn more about conditions for such groups living in areas that are expected to be the most strongly impacted by global warming, the researchers deployed heat sensors in and around 100 houses in Makassar, Indonesia, a settlement in a tropical part of the country. The researchers suggest that conditions in Makassar are likely typical for many such settlements in the tropics—areas that support approximately 370 million people in East and Southeast Asia alone. The researchers found that 80% of the sensors recorded temperatures during the rainy season that were higher than established health thresholds. At such temperatures and humidity levels, conditions are said to have adverse health impacts on people living there. They also found that in a few instances, the sensors recorded temperatures that are believed to represent the upper limit of human survivability. They noted that their findings are alarming for several reasons. The first is that millions of people living in many parts of the world are already living under heat conditions that are harmful to their health. Another is the fact that many such people engage in physical labor for work. Doing so in extreme heat, they note, can be fatal. Perhaps most alarming is the near certainty that conditions in such places are going to get worse as the planet continues to warm. In most such places, they point out, there are no relocation plans, and little chance that heat-mitigating technology such as air-conditioning will be installed—suggesting that a disaster of massive proportions is on the way.
Air pollution in Europe still killing 300,000 a year: report -- Premature deaths caused by fine particle air pollution have fallen 10 percent annually across Europe, but the invisible killer still accounts for 307,000 premature deaths a year, the European Environment Agency said Monday. If the latest air quality guidelines from the World Health Organisation were followed by EU members, the latest number of fatalities recorded in 2019 could be cut in half, according to an EEA report. Deaths linked to fine particular matter—with a diameter below 2.5 micrometres or PM2.5—were estimated at 346,000 for 2018. The clear reduction in deaths for the following year were put down partly to favourable weather but above all to a progressive improvement in air quality across the continent, the European Union's air pollution data centre said. In the early 1990s, fine particles, which penetrate deeply into the lungs, led to nearly a million premature deaths in the 27 EU member nations, according to the report. That figure had been more than halved to 450,000 by 2005. In 2019, fine particulate matter caused 53,800 premature deaths in Germany, 49,900 in Italy, 29,800 in France and 23,300 in Spain. Poland saw 39,300 deaths, the highest figure per head of population. The EEA also registers premature deaths linked to two other leading pollutants, but says it does not count them in its overall toll to avoid doubling up. Deaths caused by nitrogen dioxide—mainly from car, trucks and thermal power stations—fell by a quarter to 40,000 between 2018 and 2019. Fatalities linked to ground-level ozone in 2019 also dropped 13 percent to 16,800 dead. Air pollution remains the biggest environmental threat to human health in Europe, the agency said. Heart disease and strokes cause most premature deaths blamed on air pollution, followed by lung ailments including cancer. In children, atmospheric pollution can harm lung development, cause respiratory infections and aggravate asthma.
Delhi shuts schools as government considers 'pollution lockdown' -- New Delhi authorities announced Saturday a one-week closure of schools and said they would consider a "pollution lockdown" to protect citizens from toxic smog. "Schools will be shut so that children don't have to breathe polluted air," Delhi's chief minister Arvind Kejriwal told reporters. Delhi is ranked one of the world's most polluted cities, with a hazardous melange of factory and vehicle emissions, and smoke from agricultural fires, settling in the skies over its 20 million people each winter. On Saturday, the Supreme Court suggested imposing a lockdown on Delhi to combat the air quality crisis. "How will we live otherwise?" Chief Justice N.V. Ramana said. Kejriwal said his government would consider the court's suggestion after consulting with stakeholders. "Pollution lockdown has never happened before. It will be an extreme step," he said. Kejriwal said that construction activity would be halted for four days to cut down dust from vast, open sites. Government offices were asked to operate from home and private businesses advised to stick to work-from-home options as much as possible. The Central Pollution Control Board on Friday advised authorities to prepare "for implementation of measures under 'emergency' category". It added the poor air quality would likely run until at least November 18 due to "low winds with calm conditions during the night". On Saturday, levels of PM 2.5 particles—the smallest and most harmful, which can enter the bloodstream—topped 300 on the air quality index. That is 20 times the maximum daily limit recommended by the World Health Organization. Hospitals were reporting a sharp rise in patients complaining of breathing difficulties, the Times of India reported. "We are getting 12-14 patients daily in the emergency, mostly at night, when the symptoms cause disturbed sleep and panic," .
'It's killing us': Delhi's smog-choked roads take their toll - Stinging eyes, an unrelenting cough and chronic lung disease have taken their toll on Bhajan Lal, an auto rickshaw driver navigating the Indian capital's chaotic roads and poisonous air. For the last three decades, Lal carted passengers along bumpy thoroughfares to temples, markets and offices in New Delhi, working every day through the winter months when a pall of toxic smog settles over the sprawling megacity. "The pollution causes a lot of problems for my throat," the 58-year-old told AFP, after a morning spent in the driver's seat of his motorised three-wheeler. "My eyes sting... My lungs are affected, which creates breathing problems. Mucus builds up and collects in my chest." Delhi is consistently ranked the world's worst capital for air quality and on its most polluted days the smog can cut visibility on the roads to barely 50 metres. Levels of PM2.5 pollutants—the microparticles most harmful to human health, which can enter the bloodstream through the lungs—last week reached more than 30 times the maximum daily limit recommended by the World Health Organization. "I feel so sorry looking at children and their health," said Lal. "They are already getting sick." Lal's business suffers and he sometimes drives around the streets for an entire day without finding passengers, who prefer paying extra to sit through their commutes inside a cab. Factory emissions, vehicle exhausts and crop-clearing fires from farms in neighbouring states combine to cast the city of 20 million people in an otherworldly coat of yellow-grey haze near the end of each year. For those without the luxury of escaping the choking air, the health impacts are severe. AFP accompanied Lal to a doctor's check-up where he was diagnosed with Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease, a progressive condition that gradually limits airflow to the body. "If he doesn't take the regular medication now, he will go into a state where the airways will go narrowing and narrowing, and progressively worsening,"
Are scientists contaminating their own samples with microfibers? - More than 70% of microplastics found in samples from oceans and rivers could come from the scientists collecting them. A new paper by Staffordshire University and Rozalia Project, published in Marine Pollution Bulletin, investigates procedural contamination when sampling for microparticles in aquatic environments. The study shows that a significant amount of microplastics and microfibres from scientists' clothing and gear mixes with environmental pollution in the water samples. Claire Gwinnett, Professor in Forensic and Environmental Science at Staffordshire University, explained: "In the field this can occur due to the dynamic nature of the environment such as wind or weather, actions required to obtain samples and the close-proximity necessary for scientists to procure and secure samples whether in a medium-sized vessel, small boat or sampling from shore. In a mobile lab, this often occurs due to using small, multi-use spaces and similar requirements for scientists to be in close proximity to the samples while processing." Data was collected during an expedition along the Hudson River from Rozalia Project's 60' oceanographic sailing research vessel, American Promise. The team tracked contamination by collecting fibers from every possible source of contamination on the vessel including clothing worn by both the science and boat teams, sail bags and tarps, sail and equipment control lines as well as interior textiles. By doing so, they created a catalog to which every fiber and fragment found in environmental samples was first compared. If there was a match, that exact source of procedural contamination was noted. If there was not a match, that microparticle was considered pollution. The research found that when robust anti-contamination protocols were not used when taking water samples (using a metal bucket for surface samples and a Niskin bottle for mid-water column samples), 71.4% of the microparticles in the samples were contamination; similarly, when anti-contamination protocols were not used when processing water samples (using a vacuum filtration method), 68.4% of the microparticles in the samples were contamination. Co-lead author Rachael Z. Miller, Founder of Rozalia Project for a Clean Ocean, said: "This is a study that was designed to strengthen the scientific process and has revealed the extent to which our clothing sheds, not just in the washing machine or dryer, but as we wear it and conduct ourselves in our everyday lives. It appears that we are all Pigpen, but instead of walking around in a cloud of dirt, we may be emitting clouds of microfibres.
The First Thing We Do, Let’s Kill All the Leaf Blowers - Nearly everything about how Americans “care” for their lawns is deadly. Pesticides prevent wildflower seeds from germinating and poison the insects that feed songbirds and other wildlife. Lawn mower blades, set too low, chop into bits the snakes and turtles and baby rabbits that can’t get away in time. Mulch, piled too deep, smothers ground-nesting bees, and often the very plants that mulch is supposed to protect, as well. But the gasoline-powered leaf blower exists in a category of environmental hell all its own, spewing pollutants — carbon monoxide, smog-forming nitrous oxides, carcinogenic hydrocarbons — into the atmosphere at a literally breathtaking rate.This particular environmental catastrophe is not news. A 2011 study by Edmunds found that a two-stroke gasoline-powered leaf blower spewed out more pollution than a 6,200-pound Ford F-150 SVT Raptor pickup truck. Jason Kavanagh, the engineering editor at Edmunds at the time, noted that “hydrocarbon emissions from a half-hour of yard work with the two-stroke leaf blower are about the same as a 3,900-mile drive from Texas to Alaska in a Raptor.”The two-stroke engine found in most consumer gas-powered leaf blowers is an outmoded technology. Unlike larger, heavier engines, a two-stroke engine combines oil and gas in a single chamber, which gives the machine more power while remaining light enough to carry. That design also means that it is very loud, and that as much as a third of the fuel is spewed into the air as unburned aerosol.How loud? “Some produce more than 100 decibels of low-frequency, wall-penetrating sound — or as much noise as a plane taking off — at levels that can cause tinnitus and hearing loss with long exposure,” Monica Cardoza wrote for Audubon Magazine this year.In his Oct. 2 newsletter, the writer James Fallows summarized the emissions problem this way: “Using a two-stroke engine is like heating your house with an open pit fire in the living room — and chopping down your trees to keep it going, and trying to whoosh away the fetid black smoke before your children are poisoned by it.”As Mr. Fallows’s last point suggests, what’s bad for the environment is bad for humans, too — most menacingly, of course, for the employees of landscape services, who are exposed to these dangers all day long.The risks come not only from the noise and the chemical emissionsthat two-stroke engines produce, but also from the dust they stir up. “That dust can contain pollen, mold, animal feces, heavy metals and chemicals from herbicides and pesticides,” notes Sara Peach of Yale Climate Connections. All this adds up to increased risk of lung cancer, asthma, cardiovascular disease, premature birth and other life-threatening conditions.
Dicamba-Resistant Waterhemp Identified in Illinois, Tennessee -- Scientists from both Tennessee and Illinois have confirmed dicamba-resistant waterhemp in their respective states this week. The Illinois weed population, collected from Champaign County, shows 5- to 10-fold levels of resistance to dicamba compared to susceptible populations, said University of Illinois weed scientist Aaron Hager. Overall, it is a 6-way resistant weed population, with resistance to Group 4 (auxins, including dicamba and 2,4-D), Group 2 (ALS-inhibitors), Group 5 (triazines), Group 14 (PPO-inhibitors), Group 27 (HPPD-inhibitors) and Group 15 (VLCFA- synthesis inhibitors, such as S-metolachlor). In Montgomery County, Tennessee, waterhemp collected from fields in the Cumberland River bottoms are showing roughly 4.5-fold levels of resistance to dicamba, said Larry Steckel, University of Tennessee Extension weed scientist, who worked with Purdue University scientists to confirm his findings. The Tennessee waterhemp populations are also resistant to Group 9 (glyphosate), Group 14 (PPO-inhibitors) and Group 2 (ALS-inhibitors), although surprisingly, 2,4-D is still effective on them, Steckel said. By adding dicamba to its arsenal, these waterhemp populations become the second major dicamba-resistant pigweed species of concern in U.S. row-crop agriculture, following the discovery of dicamba-resistant Palmer amaranth in Tennessee in 2020. (See more here: https://www.dtnpf.com/…) Perhaps most alarming is the Illinois discovery comes from a field that was not treated intensively with dicamba, and scientists aren't sure exactly what the mechanism of resistance is, Hager said. Their research suggests it involves a type of resistance known as metabolic resistance, which allows weeds to escape herbicide damage by rapid metabolism of a chemical, allowing them to survive multiple classes of herbicides, even those they have not been exposed to. There is also evidence of cross-resistance between this weed's multiple herbicide-resistance traits, said Pat Tranel, a University of Illinois molecular weed biologist working with this population. "This kind of cross resistance really hampers us in our ability to tell farmers what to do," Tranel explained, since mixing herbicide modes of action will not prevent cross resistance or metabolic resistance and may actually encourage it -- by favoring weeds that can survive many classes of herbicides.
EPA Says Glyphosate, Atrazine Likely to Adversely Affect Endangered Species - - EPA finalized its biological evaluations on glyphosate, atrazine and simazine, finding all three herbicides are "likely to adversely affect" certain species listed under the Endangered Species Act and their "designated critical habitats." The agency released the biological evaluations after its regular business hours on Friday, stating in a news release, "These evaluations encompass all registered uses and approved product labels for pesticide products containing these three herbicides." EPA said the "likely to adversely affect" determination means the agency "reasonably expects" that "at least one individual animal or plant, among a variety of listed species, may be exposed to the pesticide at a sufficient level to have an effect, which will be adverse." This is a process all pesticides must now go through, as required by the Endangered Species Act. These chemicals are among the first ag pesticides to undergo these evaluations. Now EPA sends its evaluations to the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Services and National Marine Fisheries Service, who will develop their own biological opinions based on EPA's findings. If the services find that these chemicals put an endangered species or critical habitat in "jeopardy," they will work with EPA to "propose additional protections," the agency said. That could come in the form of new label and use restrictions on these three chemicals. Not all species or habitats identified in the evaluation as at risk from these glyphosate, atrazine or simazine will necessarily require major changes to the registrations of these three chemicals, the EPA noted. The agency first proposed an interim registration on glyphosate in April 2019 and accepted public comments until September 2019. EPA reapproved an interim registration of glyphosate in January 2020. Most recently, EPA released a biological evaluation of glyphosate's potential effect on endangered species and critical habitats, finding it was "likely to adversely affect" 1,676 listed species and 759 critical habitats, the vast majority of the species and habitats the agency considered. Bayer announced it would stop selling Roundup products for residential use starting in 2023. When it comes to atrazine, the Biden administration is currently reviewing the Trump administration's past decisions on atrazine's registration, staying a federal lawsuit against the agency in the meantime. See more here: Environmental groups have lobbied for atrazine to be banned entirely, based on concerns about human health risks and environmental problems, particularly concerning water quality. Syngenta is the registrant and primary manufacturer of atrazine.
Big Ag Furious as EPA Says Popular Herbicides Are Driving Species to Extinction - As Big Ag fumed Monday over a U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) determination that herbicides including the endocrine-disrupting atrazine and carcinogenic glyphosate are likely to harm more than 1,600 protected plant and animal species, environmentalists pointed to the agency's findings as proof of the need for stricter limits on the use of the dangerous poisons.After decades of refusing to comply with its obligations under the Endangered Species Act, the EPA on Fridayreleased its final biological evaluations for atrazine, glyphosate, and simazine in order to comply with a 2016 legal agreement with the advocacy groups Center for Biological Diversity and Pesticide Action Network. The EPA evaluations concluded that the chemicals are likely to adversely affect 1,676 animals and plants on the federal threatened or endangered species lists."It's no surprise that these chemical poisons are causing severe harm to imperiled wildlife since U.S. use exceeds 70 million pounds of atrazine and 300 million pounds of glyphosate every year," Nathan Donley, environmental health science director at the Center for Biological Diversity, said in a statement.Both atrazine and glyphosate have been re-approved for use in the past two years. Earlier this year, the EPA was denounced by environmental and consumer advocacy groups after the agency argued that Bayer's glyphosate-based Roundup — the world's most widely used herbicide — should remain on the market despite acknowledging that a Trump-era review of the chemical was flawed and required reevaluation.Bayer announced in July that it would end U.S. sales of Roundup for residential use by 2023.In 2019, the administration of former President Donald Trump moved to increase the allowable levels of atrazine, which has been linked to hermaphroditic amphibians, and birth defects, cancer, and other ailments in humans. While green groups welcomed the delayed evaluations, commercial agricultural interests expressed anger over the EPA's findings. Several Big Ag lobby groups including the American Farm Bureau Association and American Soybean Association claimed the agency failed to use the "best available science and data" when formulating its decision.
Unlike the U.S., Europe Is Setting Ambitious Targets for Producing More Organic Food --Recent polls show that a majority of Americans are concerned about climate change and willing to make lifestyle changes to address it. Other surveys show that many U.S. consumers are worried about possible health risks of eating food produced with pesticides, antibiotics and hormones. One way to address all of these concerns is to expand organic agriculture. Organic production generates fewer greenhouse gas emissions than conventional farming, largely because it doesn't use synthetic nitrogen fertilizer. And it prohibits using synthetic pesticides and giving hormones or antibiotics to livestock.But the U.S. isn't currently setting the bar high for growing its organic sector. Across the Atlantic, Europe has a much more focused, aggressive strategy.The European Union's Farm to Fork strategy, often described as the heart of the European Green Deal, was adopted in 2020 and strengthened in October 2021. It sets forth ambitious 2030 targets: a 50% cut in greenhouse gas emissions from agriculture, a 50% cut in pesticide use and a 20% cut in fertilizer use.Recognizing that organic production can make important contributions to these goals, the policy calls for increasing the percentage of EU farmland under organic management from 8.1% to 25% by 2030. The European Parliament has adopted a detailed organic plan to achieve this goal.Today the U.S. is the world's largest organic marketplace, with $51 billion in sales in 2019. But the EU is not far behind, at $46 billion, and if it achieves its Farm to Fork targets, it is likely to become the global leader. And that ambition is reflected in national food policies. For example, in Copenhagen 88% of ingredients in meals served at the city's 1,000 public schools are organic. Similarly, in Italy school meals in more than 13,000 schools countrywide contain organic ingredients.
Maine's wild blueberry crop feeling heat from climate change - Maine is home to the wild blueberry. Our state has the highest production of the crop in the world. It’s a vital part of the state’s economy. The land where these berries grow wild is known as the blueberry barrens. Longtime growers are facing no choice but to understand and adapt to a changing climate. The wild blueberry is commercially grown on nearly 45,000 acres in Maine, primarily near Penobscot Bay and in the Downeast part of the state. This region typically has cool, damp springs and early summers, conditions the blueberry thrives in. In recent years, counting on those prime conditions has become more challenging. “Some of the most shocking changes I would credit to climate change,” Nicholas Lindholm of Blue Hill Berry Company in Penobscot explained. A recent study by the University of Maine found the blueberry barrens are warming at a faster rate than the rest of the state. Over the last 40 years, the state as a whole warmed by 1.9 degrees Fahrenheit, but temperatures in the fields have increased by an average of 2.3 degrees Fahrenheit. Lisa Hanscom and her family own and operate Welch Farm in Roque Bluffs, in Washington County. Blueberries have been harvested on their land for five generations. She’s observed changes through the years. “This year we actually had quite a few ripe blueberries for the Fourth of July. When I was a kid, you would never find a ripe blueberry [then],” Hanscom told us. Harvest usually comes in a three- to four-week window later in the summer. “We usually start our harvest the last week of July into early August. We are now starting the third week in July. I believe that trend is going to stay, brought about by, I think, increased temperatures,” Lindholm explained.
New Jersey Bans Sale of Makeup Tested on Animals - With a list of more than 1,000 cosponsors supporting the bill, New Jersey has now banned the sale of cosmetics that are tested on animals. The new law, S1726, follows seven other states with similar bans as the public shows more interest in cruelty-free products.New Jersey Governor Phil Murphy signed the bill on November 8 after it passed unanimously in the State Senate and Assembly. First introduced in February 2020 by state Senators Joseph Lagana and Nellie Pou, the new bill is slated to go into effect in March 2022."Animal tests for cosmetics are frequently painful and harmful to the animal," the law states. "Furthermore, alternative testing methods, such as the use of engineered human tissue and the use of computer models, are often cheaper and more accurate than animal testing, in addition to being cruelty-free."The bill follows multiple studies showing widespread, bipartisan support from Americans, who want to end the practice of animal testing. A 2019 study by Cruelty Free International showed that 79% of respondents supported cruelty-free practices. Another survey from The Humane Society of the U.S. found that over 67% of respondents want an end to animal testing and would prefer researchers to find alternatives to testing cosmetics and other personal care products."In the passage of this law, New Jersey has recognized overwhelming public opinion that animals should not suffer to test cosmetic products or ingredients," said Vicki Katrinak, director of Animal Research and Testing at The Humane Society, as reported by Plant Based News. "With a growing number of non-animal test methods available, there is no ethical justification to continue harming animals for the sake of shampoo, mascara, or aftershave. Thank you to Assemblyman Verrelli and Senator Lagana for their leadership on this bill and Governor Murphy for signing this important bipartisan legislation."The new bill is an expansion of a previous New Jersey law that banned cosmetics animal testing within the state wherever there were valid alternatives available. S1726 bans the sale of animal-tested cosmetics within the state, even if the products are made elsewhere. Violations of the law will incur a fine of up to $1,000 per offense.
Florida Bear Freed After 28 Days Stuck in Plastic Container -A Florida bear is finally free after living nearly a month with a plastic container stuck to her head.The bear was first spotted with her head in the container nearly three weeks ago, but then disappeared. She was finally rescued this week, the Florida Fish and Wildlife Conservation Commission (FWC) wrote on Facebook."Luckily that hole provided enough access to drink and eat. Even after 28 days of wearing it, the bear was still in great physical shape," FWC wrote.The effort to rescue the bear began when she was first reported to be wandering around stuck in the container in Florida's Collier County, as Newsweek reported. FWC's bear biologists joined with law enforcement and bear contractors to set traps and monitor the area, but the bear was only spotted twice before dropping off of their radar."Finally, the bear was spotted on a resident's security camera, still wearing the container on its head! Staff set new traps and started night patrols of the neighborhood," FWC wrote.An FWC bear biologist darted the 250 pound female, allowing the container to be removed. The ordeal did leave a wound around her neck and face, but staff cleaned the injury and gave her antibiotics."We actually captured the bear. We kept it overnight for evaluation. We had a veterinarian take a look at it. We cleaned it up and gave it some antibiotics and then turned it loose in bear habitat. This bear is going to be just fine out in the wild now," FWC assistant bear program coordinator Mike Orlando told WFTS. The bear was released into the Picayune Strand State Forest.
Amazon deforestation hits monthly record in Brazil - Deforestation of the Amazon rainforest hit a new record in October, a Brazilian government agency said Friday, just days after President Jair Bolsonaro announced ambitious environmental goals at the COP26 climate summit. An area more than half the size of the city of Rio de Janeiro—877 square kilometers (339 square miles)—of Amazon's lush rainforest was cleared, the largest ever recorded for October since Brazil's National Institute for Space Research (INPE) started documenting deforestation in 2016. The October figure was a five percent increase from the corresponding period last year. Attributed mostly to illegal mining and farming activity, deforestation of the Amazon surged in 2020, and is on track to reach similar highs in 2021, with 7,880 square kilometers of forest cleared and two months yet to go. Brazil was among the signatories to an international pledge made at the COP26 summit in Glasgow to end deforestation by 2030. Bolsonaro also went further by pledging to eliminate illegal deforestation in the giant South American country—home to 60 percent of the Amazon—by 2028, pulling forward a previous target by two years. But the commitments have been met with skepticism by environmental groups who along with Brazil's opposition squarely blame Bolsonaro for a spike in deforestation, due to his support for an increase in agriculture and mining work. They have also accused him of defunding environmental protection organizations. Those pledges "do not change the reality on the forest floor," said Romulo Batista, a spokesman for Greenpeace's Amazon campaign. "Deforestation and fires remain out of control, and the violence against indigenous peoples and the traditional population is only increasing," he added. INPE recorded more than 11,500 forest fires in the Amazon in October, fewer than the 17,300 of last year but still a jump on the 2019 figure of almost 7,900. Since Bolsonaro took office in 2019, the Brazilian Amazon has lost more than 10,000 square kilometers a year of forest cover, an area the size of Lebanon, up from 6,500 square kilometers a year over the previous decade.
Organized crime is a top driver of global deforestation, along with beef, soy, palm oil and wood products Every year the world loses an estimated 25 million acres(10 million hectares) of forest, an area larger than the state of Indiana. Nearly all of it is in the tropics.Tropical forests store enormous quantities of carbon and are home to at least two-thirds of the world's living species, so deforestation has disastrous consequences for climate change and conservation. Trees absorb carbon dioxide as they grow, slowing its buildup in the atmosphere—but when they are burned or logged, they release their stored carbon, fueling further warming. Tropical forest loss generates nearly 50% more greenhouse gases than does the global transportation sector.At the 2021 U.N. conference on climate change in Glasgow, more than 100 world leaders pledged on Nov. 1 to halt deforestation by 2030. In the Declaration on Forests and Land Use, countries outlined their strategy, which focuses on supporting trade and development policies that promote sustainable production and consumption. Governments and private companies have pledged over US$19.2 billion to support these efforts. From my research on social and environmental issues in Latin America, I know that four consumer goods are responsible for the majority of global deforestation: beef, soy, palm oil, and wood pulp and paper products. Together these commodities are responsible for the loss of nearly 12 million acres (5 million hectares) annually. There's also a fifth, less publicized key driver: organized crime, including illegal drug trafficking.
Wildfires torched up to a fifth of all giant sequoia trees - Lightning-sparked wildfires killed thousands of giant sequoias this year, leading to a staggering two-year death toll that accounts for up to nearly a fifth of Earth's largest trees, officials said Friday. Fires in Sequoia National Park and surrounding Sequoia National Forest tore through more than a third of groves in California and torched an estimated 2,261 to 3,637 sequoias, which are the largest trees by volume. Nearby wildfires last year killed an unprecedented 7,500 to 10,400 giant sequoias that are only native in about 70 groves scattered along the western side of the Sierra Nevada range. Losses now account for 13% to 19% of the 75,000 sequoias greater than 4 feet (1.2 meters) in diameter. Blazes so intense to burn hot enough and high enough to kill so many giant sequoias—trees once considered nearly fire-proof—puts an exclamation point on climate change's impact. A warming planet that has created hotter droughts combined with a century of fire suppression that choked forests with thick undergrowth have fueled flames that have sounded the death knell for trees dating to ancient civilizations. "The sobering reality is that we have seen another huge loss within a finite population of these iconic trees that are irreplaceable in many lifetimes," said Clay Jordan, superintendent of Sequoia and Kings Canyon National Parks. "As spectacular as these trees are we really can't take them for granted. To ensure that they're around for our kids and grandkids and great grandkids, some action is necessary." California has seen its largest fires in the past five years. Last year set a record for most acreage burned and this year, so far, is running second. Tree deaths this year might have been worse if heavy rain and snow Oct. 25 hadn't dampened the fire. Fires burned from August last year into January.
Biden officials to propose road ban on much of Alaska’s Tongass National Forest - For two decades, Republicans and Democrats have fought over whether to ban roads on more than 9 million acres of Alaska’s Tongass National Forest. Now, the Biden administration aims to settle the question once and for all. Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack will propose reinstating a Clinton administration-era rule to ban logging and road building in more than half of North America’s largest temperate rainforest, the department confirmed. The restrictions had managed to stay in place for years because of a series of court battles, but the Trump administration wiped them out last fall. “Restoring the Tongass’ roadless protections supports the advancement of economic, ecologic and cultural sustainability in Southeast Alaska in a manner that is guided by local voices,” Vilsack said in a statement, adding that the rule reflects the input of Alaska’s tribal and community leaders “and builds on the region’s economic drivers of tourism and fishing.” The proposed rule would protect critical habitat and prevent the carbon dioxide trapped in the forest’s ancient trees from escaping into the atmosphere, but Alaska’s governor and congressional delegation say it would hurt the timber industry. Alaska Native leaders, environmentalists and tour operators argue that protecting the region’s remaining wild landscapes will sustain the state’s economy in the long term. Marina Anderson, tribal administrator for the Organized Village of Kasaan, said in a phone interview that her village had supported the rule since it was enacted in 2001. “Having protections for close to 10 million acres of old growth means that we have the resources needed to continue teaching our traditional practices, continue harvesting our traditional foods and medicines and to not only prosper as Indigenous people, but to come to the world’s aid right now so people can learn our ways of living and our ways of being,” Anderson said. The rule, which will be published Tuesday, will be subject to 60 days of public comment before being finalized. The administration announced in July that it would end large-scale old-growth logging on the 16.7 million-acre forest, which still boasts roughly 5 million acres of prime old-growth habitat, while continuing to auction off tracts of younger trees. The Clinton administration enacted the roadless rule to protect undeveloped stretches of national forest not just in Alaska but throughout the West, covering a total of 58.5 million acres. While some modifications have been made in a handful of states, such as Idaho and Colorado, it has remained largely intact since 2001.
Humans Have Broken One of The Natural Power Laws Governing Earth's Oceans Just as with planetary or molecular systems, mathematical laws can be found that accurately describe and allow for predictions in chaotically dynamic ecosystems too – at least, if we zoom out enough.But as humans are now having such a destructive impact on the life we share our p - lanet with, we're throwing even these once natural universalities into disarray."Humans have impacted the ocean in a more dramatic fashion than merely capturing fish," explained marine ecologist Ryan Heneghan from the Queensland University of Technology."It seems that we have broken the size spectrum – one of the largest power law distributions known in nature."The power law can be used to describe many things in biology, frompatterns of cascading neural activity to the foraging journeys of various species. It's when two quantities, whatever their initial starting point be, change in proportion relative to each other.For example, while krill are 12 orders of magnitudes (about a billion) times smaller than tuna, they're also 12 orders of magnitudes more abundant than tuna. So hypothetically, all the tuna flesh in the world combined (tuna biomass) is roughly the same amount (to within the same order of magnitude at least) as all the krill biomass in the world. Now, Max Planck Institute ecologist Ian Hatton and colleagues have looked to see if this law also reflects what's happening on a global scale. "One of the biggest challenges to comparing organisms spanning bacteria to whales is the enormous differences in scale," says Hatton."The ratio of their masses is equivalent to that between a human being and the entire Earth. We estimated organisms at the small end of the scale from more than 200,000 water samples collected globally, but larger marine life required completely different methods." Using historical data, the team confirmed the Sheldon spectrum fit this relationship globally for pre-industrial oceanic conditions (before 1850). Across 12 groups of sea life, including bacteria, algae, zooplankton, fish and mammals, over 33,000 grid points of the global ocean, roughly equal amounts of biomass occurred in each size category of organism."We were amazed to see that each order of magnitude size class contains approximately 1 gigaton of biomass globally," says McGill University geoscientist Eric Galbraith. "The fact that marine life is evenly distributed across sizes is remarkable,"said Galbraith. "We don't understand why it would need to be this way – why couldn't there be much more small things than large things? Or an ideal size that lies in the middle? In that sense, the results highlight how much we don't understand about the ecosystem." The researchers then compared these findings to the same analysis applied to present day samples and data. While the power law still mostly applied, there was a stark disruption to its pattern evident with larger organisms."Human impacts appear to have significantly truncated the upper one-third of the spectrum," the team wrote in their paper. "Humans have not merely replaced the ocean's top predators but have instead, through the cumulative impact of the past two centuries, fundamentally altered the flow of energy through the ecosystem."
Groundwater in California's Central Valley may be unable to recover from past and future droughts - Groundwater in California's Central Valley is at risk of being depleted by pumping too much water during and after droughts, according to a new study in the AGU journal Water Resources Research, an interdisciplinary journal that focuses on hydrology and water resources. The new study shows groundwater storage recovery has been dismal after the state's last two droughts, with less than a third of groundwater recovered from the drought that spanned 2012 to 2016. Under a best-case scenario where drought years are followed by consecutive wet years with above-average precipitation, the researchers found there is a high probability it would take six to eight years to fully recover overdrafted water, which occurs when more groundwater is pumped out than is supplied through all sources like precipitation, irrigation and runoff. However, this best-case scenario where California has six to eight consecutive wet years is not likely because of the state's increasingly hot and dry climate. Under a more likely, drier climate, there is less than a 20% chance of full overdraft recovery over a 20-year period following a drought. The Central Valley produces about a quarter of the nation's food and is home to around 6.5 million people. Using too much groundwater during and after droughts could soon push this natural resource beyond the point of recovery unless pumping restrictions are implemented. The study finds recovery times can be halved with modest caps on groundwater pumping in drought and post-drought years. "This is really threatening," said Sarfaraz Alam, a hydrologist at Stanford and lead study author. "There are many wells that people draw water from for drinking water. Since [groundwater is] always going down, at some point these wells will go dry and the people won't have water."M
Drought, overpumping cut Morocco river link to sea - Moroccan environmentalist Mohamed Benata stood taking photos of what should be the mouth of the Moulouya river—but after years of drought and over-pumping, it comes to a halt just short of the sea. One of the longest rivers in the North African kingdom and a vital lifeline for farmers in the area near the Algerian border, the final few paces of the 500-kilometre (310-mile) waterway are now separated from the Mediterranean by a sandbar. "It's the first time ever that the Moulouya has stopped flowing into the sea," said Benata, a retired agronomist. "The flow has been weakened by over-pumping of the water. It's pretty dramatic." And as the fresh water of the river recedes, salty seawater is creeping up the groundwaters around the riverbed, spelling ruin for farmers as much as 15 kilometres inland. Outside the village of Karbacha, Ahmed Hedaoui farms several parched fields, but this year his melons are pale, yellow and deformed. "Even the wild boar don't want them," said the 46-year-old, wearing a baseball cap against the autumn sun. "This year, I invested almost 300,000 dirhams (around $34,000) to improve this soil. I installed two pumps to irrigate the melons, but I've got nothing to show for it," he said. "Everything's dead because there's hardly any rain and the river is salty." Seawater can hold up to 35 grammes of salt per litre, while freshwater usually has less than half a gramme—but the brackish riverwater here contains as much as seven grammes. That has spelled disaster for wildlife in the area, according to Benata. "The flora and fauna won't get away unscathed," he said.
Severe damage after cricket ball-sized hail hits Lydenburg, South Africa - (videos) A severe hailstorm classified by the South African Weather Service (SAWS) as a superstorm, hit the town of Lydenburg in Thaba Chweu Local Municipality, Mpumalanga highveld during the afternoon hours of Sunday, November 14, 2021. Some of the hailstones were larger than golf and cricket balls. The storm hit Lydenburg, including Badfontein Road, Dullstroom Road (R36), and the Burgersfort Road (R37), resulting in severe property and vehicle damage.1The Kannabas and Kiepersol Housing Units for the elderly are in particularly bad shape with severe roof damage.
Violent storms hit Egypt, triggering deadly scorpion infestation - Violent storms hit Egypt's southern city of Aswan over the past weekend, causing floods and triggering scorpion infestation that left three people dead and more than 500 others hospitalized due to scorpion stings. The storm brought heavy rain, hail, and dust storms to the city of Aswan, forcing hordes of venomous scorpions out of their burrows and into streets and homes.1 Three people were killed and over 500 were injured due to scorpion stings in the city since Friday, November 12, according to the Al-Ahram news agency. The deaths and injuries were caused after the bad weather drove the scorpions from their nests into people's homes.2 Those who have been injured are being treated with antivenom in hospitals as well as in medical centers that are located in more remote areas. While media is citing unnamed health officials saying 3 people have died from scorpion stings, acting Health Minister Khalid Abdel-Ghafar released a statement saying no such deaths occurred. However, he did not give any details of the cause of the deaths. People have been urged to stay at home and avoid places with many trees.3 Extra doses of anti-venom have been provided to medical centers in villages near mountains and deserts.
Deadly scorpions leave 500 Egyptians in hospital following flooding - Flooding in southern Egypt has led to scorpions being forced out of their hiding places and into people’s homes. Hundreds of locals have suffered injuries as a result.503 people are known to have been hospitalised after being stung by the creatures. Symptoms include severe pain, fever, sweating, vomiting, diarrhoea, muscle tremors, and head twitching.Fortunately, all the patients were given anti-venom doses and discharged from hospital.The injuries happened in the province of Aswan where downpours, hail and thunder have wreaked havoc. Local authorities have urged citizens to avoid areas where there are lots of trees or, better still, stay at home.Egypt is home to fat-tailed scorpions - one of the most dangerous types in the world. They are found throughout the semi-arid and arid regions of the Middle East and Africa and can grow up to 9 cm long.Venom from a black fat-tail can kill a human in under an hour.
At least 26 people dead, more than 100 missing after massive floods and landslides hit southern India (videos) At least 26 people have been killed and more than 100 remain missing after heavy rains caused massive floods in parts of southern India over the past couple of days. Many homes, roads, and bridges have been damaged or destroyed and livestock swept away. At least 17 people have been reported dead and over 100 washed away in severe floods that hit Andra Pradesh, NDTV reported on November 20, 2021. The worst affected region in the state is Rayalaseema. Other affected districts include Chittoor, Kadapa, Kurnool, and Anantpur.1 3 children and an aged woman died in the Kadiri town of Anantapur district after an old 3-story building collapsed due to heavy rains late at night. Rescue operations for more than 4 people still under the rubble are in progress. Three state transport buses have been marooned and 12 people could not be rescued, NDTV said. The floods have destroyed or damaged bridges and roads at many places, affecting rail, road, and air traffic. Nine people have been killed in Tamil Nadu on November 19 after a wall of the house they were sleeping in collapsed on them in the district of Vellore.2 Nine others sustained injuries and were admitted to a hospital. Widespread rains with thunderstorms have been forecast over Maharashtra, Goa, Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, Tamil Nadu, Karnataka, and Kerala on Saturday and Sunday, November 20 and 21, 2021. The rain is brought by a well marked low pressure area over north interior Tamil Nadu and adjoining Karnataka and Rayaleseema.
Tornadoes strike Long Island and Connecticut in rare November storm - Multiple tornadoes struck several Northeast states on Saturday in an unprecedented November outbreak, snapping trees and leaving behind pockets of structural damage to homes and businesses.The mini-swarm of tornadoes occurred as an intense, tightly wound impulse swept across the region, drawing energy from near record-warm Atlantic Ocean waters. A strong cold front accompanying the disturbance incited a line of powerful thunderstorms, some of which began to rotate as they slid through Long Island and into southern New England.Radar imagery showed numerous instances of debris lofted amid this rotation, prompting the National Weather Service to issue a total of 12 tornado warnings across New York, Connecticut, Rhode Island and Massachusetts.At one point, two simultaneous tornadoes were probably ongoing near Islip in Long Island. The Weather Service office in New York City is conducting damage surveys near Mastic and Shirley on Sunday to determine whether and where tornadoes touched down and to assign damage ratings. In Shirley, a shopping center suffered heavy damage from the storms.In Connecticut, three probable tornadoes struck Cheshire, Branford and Plainfield, with radar imagery showing rotation and debris. In Cheshire, a trampoline was blown into power lines, while snapped trees damaged some property and cut electricity to thousands. The Weather Service is also surveying the damage in this area on Sunday. Ryan Hanrahan, a broadcast meteorologist in Hartford, said this activity in Connecticut was unprecedented. “Since records began in 1950 we’ve never had tornadoes this late in the season,” he tweeted.Tornado warnings were also issued in Providence, R.I., and in Cape Cod and Martha’s Vineyard in Massachusetts. Across the four states, more than 5,000 people were without electricity Sunday morning, according toPoweroutage.us. The Weather Service received more than 50 reports of storm damage in the region, mostly from downed trees. After conducting storm damage surveys on Sunday, the National Weather Service determined 8 tornadoes touched down in the Northeast Saturday, spread across Long Island, Connecticut and Rhode Island. The four twisters that struck Connecticut are the only four on record to occur in the state during November and the most in the state in a single day since May 15, 2018.
Rare tornadoes hit Rhode Island and Connecticut, the first in November since at least 1950 - The National Weather Service (NWS) storm surveys have confirmed several tornadoes touched down on Saturday, November 13, 2021, across Connecticut and Rhode Island. While all of them were EF-0 or EF-1, these were the first November tornadoes to strike the area since at least 1950. No deaths or injuries were reported.The NWS confirmed 3 tornadoes touched down on the evening of November 13 -- an EF-1 near Stonington, and Westerly, Rhode Island; an EF-0 in North Kingstown, Rhode Island, and another EF-0 near Plainfield, and Foster, Rhode Island.1This represents the most tornadoes in one day for Rhode Island in any month of the year on record."Since 1950, there has never been a tornado recorded in Connecticut or Rhode Island in the month of November," the NWS said. "Massachusetts last recorded a November tornado on November 7, 1971."In total, 8 tornadoes were confirmed in the region on November 13 and one on November 12: [table] Connecticut took the brunt of the storm which toppled power poles and downed trees causing damage to homes and cars. Parts of southern New England were under multiple tornado warnings, as winds and heavy rains blew through the area.2
Long Island Tornadoes Cause Major Damage – Some four tornadoes touched down on Long Island Saturday in a first for Nassau and Suffolk counties, which have no records of a tornado striking in November.The National Weather Service confirmed a total of seven, rare November tornadoes struck the northeast over the weekend; the others were in Connecticut. No deaths or injuries were reported but the region saw widespread damage to property as well as power outages from winds that reached up to 110 mph. Three EF-0 tornadoes and an EF-1 tornado hit a series of towns across both Long Island counties on Saturday as a line of severe thunderstorms pushed east after blowing through New Jersey and New York City. A team of NWS surveyors spent Sunday crisscrossing storm damage, tracking the paths of the systems and confirming the rare events for communities shocked to see tornadoes blow through. In Nassau County, officials first confirmed an EF-0 tornado with maximum wind speeds of 85 mph touched down in Woodmere, Uniondale and Levittown. Two separate tornadoes, another EF-0 and a more powerful EF-1, also formed in Suffolk County within an hour of the first system. The former struck East Islip and Oakdale, while the latter and flew from Shirley to Manorville, according to the NWS. Monday morning, the NWS confirmed the fourth tornado, also an EF-0 in Suffolk County from Remsenburg to Westhampton. Denise Flores, a Levittown resident, said the scene was terrifying and she had no idea what to do. . I said, 'mom, something's wrong.' Then I look outside and oh my god there's a huge piece of wood in my house," Flores said. "I look out the window and I just totally freaked out.." According to their report issued Sunday, the first EF-0 tornado touched down shortly after 2:30 p.m. in Woodmere where it knocked down multiple trees and powerlines. Then, the tornado "lifted and skipped," traveling 50 miles per hour as it moved toward Hempstead. The next touchdown appeared to be in Uniondale, surveyors found, where the tornado tore a roof off of a two-story colonial building. The roof landed on a nearby house. Debris from other structures, including shingles, siding and insulation was found a block over. The weather agency also confirmed a touchdown in Levittown, where the system was responsible for uprooting a giant tree that split a house nearly in two.
Atmospheric river drenching Pacific Northwest, bringing flooding - The Washington Post --A barrage of atmospheric rivers in recent weeks has drenched the Pacific Northwest and Northern California, bringing widespread 30-day rain totals between 15 and 30 inches, debris flows, heavy mountain snows and mudslides. Another atmospheric river is soaking coastal Washington and northern Oregon, the latest in a relentlessly wet pattern that doesn’t look to budge anytime soon.Flood watches remain west of the Cascades and include cities such as Seattle, Tacoma and Portland. More than a dozen flood warnings are in effect as rivers overflow their banks, swollen from a month of copious to prolific rainfall. In Neskowin, Ore., near the Pacific Coast about 90 miles southwest of Portland, 50 people were being evacuated by helicopter from an RV Park Friday due to rising waters along the Neskowin Creek and the threat of mudslides, according to the U.S. Coast Guard.Another 2 to 6 inches of rain are possible out of the ongoing atmospheric river, but totals may approach a foot or more after yet another bout of storminess drags an atmospheric river into the region toward the middle of next week. The heaviest rain as of Friday morning was falling from just south of Seattle to near the Oregon border, with rainfall rates around a quarter-inch per hour. A second batch of steady rainfall was lurking just off the coast, and will be overspreading the region through about noon local time before a gradual decrease in precipitation intensity in the afternoon. “We’re still under it,” said Miles Higa, a meteorologist at the National Weather Service in Portland. “Our precip rates aren’t quite as high as they were last evening, but it was enough to bring some of our coastal rivers to flood stage.” Because atmospheric rivers carry the bulk of their moisture at the mid-levels, the heaviest rainfall is expected on the windward, or west-facing, side of any mountains — particularly along the Coastal Range and the Cascades. Those same areas have seen up to 2½ feet of rain in the past month.
Category 5 atmospheric river brings record-breaking river levels to the Pacific Northwest – CNN -While more than 90% of the West is currently in some sort of drought, the one area that doesn't need more rain is getting all of it.The region known for gray skies and rainfall is getting more than its fair share this month.The Pacific Northwest has gotten more rain in the last two weeks than they normally see for the entire month of November, which is also stacking up to be one of the top five wettest Novembers on record for Seattle. "November rainfall through Sunday was 6.83 inches. The normal for the entire month is 6.31," said Maddie Kristell, meteorologist for the National Weather Service (NWS) in Seattle.An atmospheric river pumps incredible amounts of moisture off the Pacific into the Pacific Northwest, resulting in heavy rain. You can see the moisture being pulled in on this water vapor image. "We are on the tail end of a series of two atmospheric rivers that we have had in quick succession, almost back to back," she said. The current Category 5 atmospheric river taking aim at the region is on the exact same track as the last event several days ago. Extreme rainfall, river flooding, damaging winds and even landslides are all on the table with this system. The NWS office in Seattle mentioned, "Record-breaking flooding is forecast for the Skagit River at Mount Vernon," north of Seattle. Towns around the expected high water have been ordered to evacuate ahead of the event to help minimize possible dangers. Rainfall totals with the storm have been impressive. "Some parts of the Olympic peninsula have seen 6 or 7 inches, and even parts of the Cascades have seen 4-6 inches as well," said Kristell. Also contributing to the flooding is snowmelt.According to the NWS in Seattle, 6.24 inches of rain fell at Sumas, WA and 5.21 inches fell at Mount Baker in just a 24-hour period.With all the added saturation to the soil, landslides will not only be a hazard during the atmospheric river event, but after, as the soil remains wet and unstable.High winds will also be a huge concern. Area wide, winds are forecast to gust 30-35 mph, but near Skagit County, where major river flooding is expected to take place, winds could gust 60 mph or more.
Heavy rains produce flooding and mudslides in the Pacific Northwest, Canada : A massive wind and rain storm that began Friday is causing flooding and mudslides in the Pacific Northwest near the Canadian border, leading to the closure of an interstate highway, evacuations and power outages. On Monday, Washington Gov. Jay Inslee declared a severe weather state of emergency for 14 counties in the western part of the state. Landslides caused by rain and wind as well as saturated soil from an earlier storm led to the closure of Interstate 5 overnight. The West Coast's main north-south highway, which had been blocked off in both directions, partially reopened Tuesday morning. Dramatic drone video posted by the city of Bellingham, Wash., showed abandoned cars in streets submerged by floodwaters and people using kayaks to get around. Multiple areas of the state faced evacuations, and more than 158,0000 customers in western Washington had no power at one point Monday afternoon, The Associated Press reported. Many schools were also closed or delayed. Flood warnings remained in effect for several counties into Tuesday afternoon, but the National Weather Service said the high waters were expected to recede.The devastating flooding also extended into Oregon, where officials in one area rescued20 people and three dogs from an inundated RV park.Heavy flooding across the state closed roads, trapped people in their homes and knocked out power in one area, the Salem Statesman Journal reported. Monday's severe weather was caused by an "atmospheric river" that had been pelting the Pacific Northwest with rain and heavy winds for days, according to the AP.Atmospheric rivers are long, narrow bands of water vapor in the sky that often release rain or snow when they make landfall, NOAA says. Because a warmer atmosphere holds more moisture, it means that climate change makes rain and extreme flooding events even worse.The storm's devastating effects were felt across the Canadian border, where wind and storm warnings were in effect across British Columbia on Monday.The entire city of Merritt was ordered to evacuate after the municipal wastewater treatment plant failed, the CBC reported, and authorities were using helicopters to rescue 275 people who had been stranded on a main highway.The province saw rain, wind and even forecasted snow that caused power outages and prompted officials to close schools and block some roadways, according to CTV News Vancouver.
Floodwaters rush through several Pacific Northwest towns amid record rainfall— Floodwaters in the Pacific Northwest have inundated homes, forced rescues and shuttered schools as a trio of deluges set rainfall records. Swollen rivers began to crest at record highs Monday. Photos showed downtown Sumas, Washington, a town along the Canadian border, inundated. Cars were stuck in the streets of Bellingham, Washington, city officials said. Two nearby landslides — most likely resulting from saturated soils — sent debris onto Interstate 5, forcing part of the state’s most important roadway to close overnight. Winds gusted at nearly 60 mph at Seattle-Tacoma International Airport on Monday, according to the National Weather Service.The severe weather led Washington Gov. Jay Inslee to issue an emergency proclamation for some areas, freeing up state resources to assist hard-hit areas.About 70,000 utility customers in Washington were without power early Tuesday, according to PowerOutage.Us, which tracks outages nationwide.To the north, the Canadian province of British Columbia faced flooding and winds said to be strong enough to cause power outages and fell trees, officials said.The provincial government said flooding and mudslides stranded motorists, many of whom were the subject of search-and-rescue operations into the night Monday. Local communities were helping to house those rescued, the government said."As of Monday afternoon, many people have been airlifted from mudslides near Agassiz and Lillooett and been relocated to safe locations," the B.C. government tweeted.East of Vancouver, fire services rescued 275 people that were trapped between two mudslides on Highway 7.In Vancouver a barge broke loose and struck a seawall in English Bay, prompting someone to give it a parody Twitter account. Vancouver Island’s Highway 1 was also flooded, officials said.Authorities on the Canadian side of the Sumas Prairie area warned residents to be prepared to evacuate Monday night in the midst of rising floodwaters.In parts of Abbotsford, a city on the border east of Vancouver, officialsordered evacuations under a local state of emergency.
Atmospheric river hits British Columbia, causing major floods and landslides, Canada – video Another round of heavy rain caused by atmospheric river caused major flooding and landslides in southern British Columbia, Canada, and parts of Washington and Oregon in the United States on November 14 and 15, 2021. Some parts of the region received nearly 255 mm (10 inches) of rain.At least 106 000 customers lost power in British Columbia and another 140 000 in neighboring Washington state, U.S. The worst affected was British Columbia where rivers overflowed, and authorities were forced to close roads and bridges.As many as 100 vehicles were trapped between two landslides on Highway 7, a scenic route running east of Vancouver. The entire area was then evacuated before rescue operations halted Monday night.1"There are 275 people trapped on BC Highway 7," Alanna Kelly of Glacier Media reported.2"People stuck there tell me they’ve done a headcount and a helicopter is being organized to possibly evacuate them out. They tell me everyone is in 'good spirits' and are thankful for technology."The atmospheric river event caused extensive damage and many landslides, said Dr. Dave Petley of The Landslide Blog.3 "The full picture will not become clear until later this week, but levels of damage to the road network look to be high in places," Petley said. According to data provided by Environment Canada, rainfall records have been broken in around 20 locations, including Abbotsford which recorded 100.4 mm (3.95 inches) on November 14, breaking the previous record of 48.9 mm (1.92 inches) set in 1998.4From November 13 to 15, Hope in Fraser Valley Regional District recorded 225 mm (8.85 inches) of rain. During the same period, Squamish recorded 206 mm (8.11 inches), Coquihalla Summit 252 mm (9.92 inches), West Vancouver 157 mm (6.18 inches), and Agassiz 208 mm (8.18 inches).
Canada: floods prompt evacuations in region hit by summer wildfires - Communities in western Canada who were forced to flee their homes this summer by wildfires and extreme heat are once again under evacuation orders after overwhelming floods across the region.The heavy rainfall and pounding storms are also taking a toll on the US Pacific north-west, where flooding and mudslides in Washington state have also forced evacuations and school closures.Helicopters were dispatched on Monday to Highway 7, more than 100 kilometres (62 miles) east of Vancouver, to rescue about 275 people, including 50 children, who had been stranded on the road since it was blocked by a mudslide late on Sunday.Footage from the area shows stranded travelers heading toward a yellow emergency helicopter during the rescue operation. The surrounding landscape is littered with debris from a landslide blocking access to the highway.“I definitely heard people screaming for help,” Adam Wuisman, who was driving the section of the highway when a landslide hit, told CBC News. “It’s kind of helpless to feel like you’re between a very vulnerable mountainside on one side and the Fraser River on the other side. And there’s really nothing you can do about it, but hope nothing comes down on top of you.” Images of surging rivers, mudslides, flooded cities and destroyed highways circulated on social media as officials scrambled to assess the full extent of the damage, warning residents the situation could deteriorate further as winds picked up throughout the day.According to Environment Canada, 225 millimetres of rain fell on the community of Hope since the storm began Saturday and 180 millimetres had fallen around Agassiz and Chilliwack in the eastern part of the Fraser Valley.After two bridges and its water treatment facility were overwhelmed by flood waters, the city of Merritt issued an evacuation order to all residents, warning that “continued habitation of the community without sanitary services presents risk of mass sewage back-up and personal health risk”. Since June, the province has experienced a record-setting “heat dome”, huge wildfires that destroyed two towns and choked the air for weeks, extreme events that experts say were worsened by the climate crisis. Last week, Vancouver, British Columbia’s largest city, was briefly placed under tornado watch, a rare event for the region.In Washington state, the National Weather Service warned that winds nearing hurricane strength were possible in the region, which has seen nearly ceaseless rain for about a week. A wind gust of 58mph (93km/h) was reported on Monday at Sea-Tac international airport in Seattle.More than 158,0000 customers were without power in western Washington at one point Monday, the Seattle Times reported.Parts of the region have seen more than 6in (15cm) of rain in the past several days. Less than halfway into the month it is already the third wettest November that Seattle has seen in more than a century, according to the Washington Post, with rainfall records likely to be broken.A state of emergency was declared over the weekend for the town of Hamilton, about 80 miles (129km) north-east of Seattle, and residents were urged to evacuate as soon as possible, the Skagit Valley Herald reported. As the water was making its way down the Skagit River, people were warned to expect flooding in the cities of Sedro-Woolley, Burlington and Mount Vernon. Just south of the Canadian border in Sumas, Washington, officials said city hall was flooded and that the flooding event was the worst in decades.
Communities evacuated, highways washed away as relentless rain pounds B.C. - Heavy rain battered southern British Columbia on Monday, forcing the evacuation of an entire city, washing out major highways and leaving many communities cut off from the rest of the province.Parts of the province have seen as much as 252 millimetres of rain in just two days, and rainfall, snowfall, winter storm and wind warnings remain in effect across most of southern B.C.Environment Canada is forecasting winds gusting up to 90 kilometres per hour on Monday evening in some regions.In a news conference Monday afternoon, Public Safety Minister Mike Farnworth said conditions are still in flux. Mudslides and debris flows have washed out portions of Highway 1 and the Coquihalla Highway, and flooding has forced people from their homes in several communities."People in Merritt, Princeton and areas along Highway 7 and 99 and the Coquihalla are seeing the worst of it," he said."I would like to thank everyone who is affected for your patience, strength and for doing everything you can to stay safe. As I said this morning, the situation is dynamic and further rains, high winds and possible snow in areas are compounding the situation."Despite the chaos in many regions, there have been no confirmed deaths so far.Residents of Merritt, some 180 kilometres northeast of Vancouver, were ordered to evacuate at about 10 a.m. PT on Monday. City officials said the municipal wastewater treatment plant in the community had failed. Residents were asked not to use water in their homes, including flushing toilets and running taps.An evacuation order was also issued for the nearby Nooaitch Indian Band. The city has asked all gas stations to remain open for residents leaving the city. Reception centres for evacuees are open in Kelowna and Kamloops. Meanwhile, rescue operations were underway in multiple locations after mudslides trapped drivers in their vehicles on B.C. highways. That includes an area south of Lillooet where Farnworth said about 50 vehicles had been stranded.On Monday afternoon, helicopter rescues were underway along Highway 7 between the communities of Hope and Agassiz, where as many as 275 people, among them 50 children, had been trapped in their vehicles since Sunday.Canadian Forces Cormorant helicopters lifted hundreds of people to safety, transporting evacuees from the slide area to a reception centre in Agassiz. Camp Hope, a camping and conference centre located along Highway 7, is offering refuge for stranded travellers in the area.The site is already hosting a number of members of Lytton First Nation, who were forced to evacuate their community after a devastating wildfire this summer. Camp management says Lytton evacuees are preparing blankets and bedding for the new arrivals.
Agricultural disaster after record rains cause catastrophic floods in British Columbia, Canada British Columbia has declared a state of emergency on November 17, 2021, after several days of heavy rain caused catastrophic floods in parts of the province. At least 1 person has been killed but officials fear the death toll will rise. Another atmospheric river event hit British Columbia and parts of the U.S. Northwest over the past weekend, dropping record-breaking rain. Parts of the region received more than 2 months of average rainfall in just 48 hours, causing rivers to overflow and low-lying plains to flood.1 The resulting floods destroyed roads and bridges, submerged homes and farmland, leaving at least 1 person dead. B.C. Agriculture Minister Lana Popham said hundreds of farms have been affected provincewide, many in the Fraser Valley. Nearly in tears, she described the widespread flooding as an agricultural disaster.2 The region has been one of the hardest hit by floods, with evacuation orders still in effect for the city of Abbotsford -- home to roughly half of all the dairy farms in British Columbia. In addition, thousands of animals have perished in the floods and the government says it will work to get veterinarians into farms to treat animals. Some of the animals that escaped the floods are expected to be euthanized. Some highways were closed after numerous landslides, including Highway 7 from Hope to Vancouver where as many as 100 vehicles were trapped between two landslides.1 As of November 18, nearly 20 000 people are still out of their homes across the province. According to data provided by Environment Canada, rainfall records have been broken in around 20 locations, including Abbotsford which recorded 100.4 mm (3.95 inches) on November 14, breaking the previous record of 48.9 mm (1.92 inches) set in 1998.3 From November 13 to 15, Hope in Fraser Valley Regional District recorded 225 mm (8.85 inches) of rain. During the same period, Squamish recorded 206 mm (8.11 inches), Coquihalla Summit 252 mm (9.92 inches), West Vancouver 157 mm (6.18 inches), and Agassiz 208 mm (8.18 inches).
Canada's flood havoc after summer heatwave shows how climate disasters combine to do extra damage - People living in British Columbia will feel like they have had more than their fair share of climate disasters in 2021. After a record-breaking heatwave in June, the state in western Canada has been inundated by intense rain storms in November. It's also likely the long-lasting effects of the heatwave made the results of the recent rainfall worse, causing more landslides—which have destroyed highways and railroads—than would otherwise have happened. In June 2021, temperature records across western North America were shattered. The town of Lytton in British Columbia registered 49.6°C, breaking the previous Canadian national record by 5°C. The unprecedented weather was caused by a high pressure system, a so-called "heat dome", which sat over the region for several days. Heat intensified within the dome as the high pressure compressed the air. Dry ground conditions forced temperatures even higher, as there was less water evaporating to cool things down. Although unconfirmed, it's estimated that the heatwave caused over 400 deaths in British Columbia alone. The hot and dry weather also sparked wildfires. Just days after recording the hottest national temperature ever, the town of Lytton burned to the ground. The summer's fires and drought left the ground charred and barren, incapable of absorbing water. These conditions make landslides more likely, as damaged tree roots can no longer hold soil in place. It also ensures water flows over the soil quicker, as it cannot soak into the baked ground. The huge rain storm which lasted from Saturday November 13 to Monday 15 was caused by an atmospheric river—a long, narrow, band of moisture in the atmosphere stretching hundreds of miles. When this band travels over land it can generate extreme rainfall, and it did: in 48 hours, over 250mm of rain fell in the town of Hope, 100km east of Vancouver. This much rainfall on its own would probably cause extensive flooding. But combined with the parched soil, the results have been catastrophic. Landslides have destroyed many of the region's transport links, leaving Vancouver cut off by rail and road. But the bad news doesn't end there; sediment washed away by these floods could make future floods this winter even worse.
Sea level rise is accelerating in Maine. In York County, hundreds of millions in property value is at risk | Maine Public -Sea level rise is accelerating along Maine's coast. This year, record high water levels have been documented in Bar Harbor, Cutler and Wells. For coastal communities it means threats to buildings and infrastructure, the loss of beaches and intrusion of salt water into private wells. A modest 1.6 foot rise, which is expected by the year 2050, will result in a 15-fold increase in coastal flooding. Some areas of York County are especially vulnerable as storms become more frequent and more intense.For decades, Camp Ellis in Saco has been the poster child for the destructive power of rising seas which have destroyed three dozen homes and washed away several streets.Coastal damage to the once thriving fishing hamlet has been compounded by the construction of a 150-year-old jetty that altered wave action and carved out chunks of the shoreline. But other coastal communities in York County are increasingly feeling the effects of storm surge."So this is kind of a picture of what a future low tide would look like with sea level rise," says Peter Slovinsky, a marine geologist with the Maine Geological Survey.A recent nor'easter on Wells Beach was more of a glancing blow than a knock out punch, but the day after the storm, the surf remains high, part of the beach is under water at low tide and Slovinsky says it illustrates how low-lying homes and roads nearby are vulnerable."Standing on the beach looking north right here there are a bunch of hotels that are at risk of coastal storms. So, when you take the coastal storms and you amplify them by sea level rise, there are going to be some significant impacts to those as well," Slovinsky says.A recent report for the Southern Maine Planning and Development Commission suggests that the more than 3,500 parcels in the towns of Wells, Kennebunk and York are at risk of flooding from an expected 1.6 foot increase in sea level rise over the next 30 years. The combined property value of those parcels is more than $645 million. Larissa Crockett is the town manager of Wells where more than 1,000 parcels are under threat."We do have some neighborhoods that are very much at sea level," Crockett says. "We're gonna need to work with those neighborhoods to figure out how to prepare them for the next 50 years."
Wall Street’s Latest Scheme Is Monetizing Nature Itself - --A month before the 2021 United Nations Climate Change Conference (known as COP26) kicked off in Scotland, a new asset class was launched by the New York Stock Exchange that will “open up a new feeding ground for predatory Wall Street banks and financial institutions that will allow them to dominate not just the human economy, but the entire natural world.” So writes Whitney Webb in an article titled “Wall Street’s Takeover of Nature Advances with Launch of New Asset Class”:Called a natural asset company, or NAC, the vehicle will allow for the formation of specialized corporations “that hold the rights to the ecosystem services produced on a given chunk of land, services like carbon sequestration or clean wate r.” These NACs will then maintain, manage and grow the natural assets they commodify, with the end goal of maximizing the aspects of that natural asset that are deemed by the company to be profitable.The vehicle is allegedly designed to preserve and restore Nature’s assets; but when Wall Street gets involved, profit and exploitation are not far behind. Webb writes:[E]ven the creators of NACs admit that the ultimate goal is to extract near-infinite profits from the natural processes they seek to quantify and then monetize…. Framed with the lofty talk of “sustainability” and “conservation”, media reports on the move in outlets like Fortune couldn’t avoid noting that NACs open the doors to “a new form of sustainable investment” which “has enthralled the likes of BlackRock CEO Larry Fink over the past several years even though there remain big, unanswered questions about it.”BlackRock is the world’s largest asset manager, with nearly $9.5 trillion under management. That is more than the gross domestic product of every country in the world except the U.S. and China. BlackRock also runs a massive technology platform that oversees at least $21.6 trillion in assets. It and two other megalithic asset managers, State Street and Vanguard (BlackRock’s largest shareholder), already effectively own much of the world. Adding “natural asset companies” to their portfolios could make them owners of the foundations of all life.
Partial lunar eclipse of November 19, 2021 - the longest since 1440 and until 2669 - A partial lunar eclipse, visible from the Americas, northern Europe, eastern Asia, Australia and the Pacific, will take place on Friday, November 19, 2021. The eclipse is followed by a total solar eclipse on December 4, 2021.The partial eclipse phase will last 3 hours, 28 minutes and 24 seconds, and the full eclipse 6 hours and 1 minute, making it the longest partial lunar eclipse since 1440 and until 2699.The Moon will begin to enter the Earth's penumbra at 06:02 UTC and the instant of greatest eclipse will take place at 09:02 UTC, 1.7 days before the Moon reaches apogee.1During this eclipse, the Moon is in the constellation Taurus.The synodic month in which the eclipse takes place has a Brown Lunation Number of 1223.The eclipse belongs to Saros 126 and is number 45 of 70 eclipses in the series. All eclipses in this series occur at the Moon’s ascending node.This is a very deep partial eclipse with an umbral eclipse magnitude of 0.9742 and a partial eclipse duration of 208.4 minutes. Gamma has a value of -0.4552.It is followed two weeks later by a total solar eclipse of December 4, 2021.These eclipses all take place during a single eclipse season. If you are so inclined, take a look at some astonishing predictions for November 2021 by famous Vedic Astrologer Joni Patry. (video)
In first, Russian test strikes satellite using Earth-based missile - Russia conducted a strike against a Soviet-era satellite in space on Monday, creating more than 1,500 pieces of debris that U.S. officials said pose a reckless risk and show Moscow’s insincerity when it says it does not want to weaponize space.The test marked the first time that Russia has demonstrated an ability to strike a satellite using a missile launched from Earth.During a briefing, State Department spokesman Ned Price said the anti-satellite test created more than 1,500 pieces of sizable debris that could damage other satellites or affect astronauts at the International Space Station.“Earlier today, the Russian Federation recklessly conducted a destructive … test of a direct ascent anti-satellite missile against one of its own satellites,” Price said. “The test has so far generated over 1,500 pieces of trackable orbital debris and hundreds of thousands of pieces of smaller orbital debris that now threaten the interests of all nations.”Price said the test threatens astronauts on the space station and “clearly demonstrates that Russia’s claims of opposing the weaponization of space are disingenuous.”Russia’s Ministry of Defense confirmed in a statement that it “successfully conducted a test, as a result of which the inactive Russian spacecraft Tselina-D, which has been in orbit since 1982, was hit.”But the ministry said the test “did not and will not post a threat to orbital stations, spacecraft and space activities.”Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said Tuesday that the U.S. claim “that Russia poses risks to activities for the peaceful use of outer space is, to say the least, hypocrisy.”He said it’s the Americans who have ignored proposals from Russia and China on arms regulation in space.In an interview with The Washington Post, NASA Administrator Bill Nelson called the strike “outrageous” and “unconscionable.”“It’s inexplicable that they would do this and threaten not only our astronauts after we’ve cooperated in space since 1975, but threaten their own cosmonauts,” he said.
US: Debris field in space caused by Russian weapons test -A major Russian anti-satellite weapons test earlier Monday created a potentially dangerous field of around 1,500 pieces of debris in space, U.S. officials confirmed. CNN was the first to report on a rare “debris-generating event,” which the State Department later said put the International Space Station and all global systems and astronauts in space at risk. “Earlier today the Russian Federation recklessly conducted a destructive satellite test of a direct anti-satellite missile against one of its own satellites,” State Department spokesman Ned Price told reporters during the daily press briefing. “The test has so far generated over 1,500 pieces of trackable, orbitable debris” as well as hundreds of thousands of pieces of smaller debris “that now threaten the interests of all nations." Space analysts quickly tracked the target of the missile as Cosmos-1408, a now defunct satellite launched by the Soviet Union in 1982. Price said Washington will now work with allies and partners to respond to the “irresponsible act,” which involved the launch of a missile from the ground. Following the launch. “Russia’s dangerous and irresponsible behavior jeopardizes the long-term sustainability of our outer space and clearly demonstrates that Russia’s claims of opposing the weaponization of space are disingenuous and hypocritical,” Price added. Pentagon spokesman John Kirby also confirmed the test and said while the immediate concerns center around the space debris, “we watch closely the kinds of capabilities that Russia seems to want to develop.”
Mapping where carbon needs to remain in its natural place to avoid climate catastrophe --An international team of researchers has created a map that highlights parts of the world that hold very high concentrations of carbon. In their paper published in the journal Nature Sustainability, the group describes their map and how it was created, noting that if the carbon in such areas is released, it would likely set off a climatic catastrophe. Peter Thornton with Oak Ridge National Laboratory has published a News & Views piece in the same journal issue, outlining the work done by the team in this new effort. Scientists have known for many years that there are certain areas of the world that hold a tremendous amount of carbon—permafrost in the North, for example, or redwood trees along the northwest coast of the United States. In this new effort, the researchers have sought to highlight the important role these regions play in efforts by humanity to reduce carbon emissions. The researchers note that other highly concentrated areas include the Amazon basin, the Congo Basin and parts of Borneo. Some are home to mangroves, others to peatlands. They describe these natural carbon sinks as 'irrecoverable' resources because if the carbon is released from them by human activities, it could take centuries for the areas to recover. To learn more about the location of the planet's irrecoverable resources, the team studied satellite images and prior estimates of how much carbon is sequestered in these sinks. They then created a map of the world highlighting in purple hues these carbon sinks. In looking at the map, it is easy to see where they are—what is not so easy is developing a plan that protects such areas from encroachment. One striking feature of the map is how small irrecoverable resource areas are. They occupy just over 3 percent of Earth's total land area. The researchers conclude that allowing all of the carbon in all of the world's natural sinks to be released would likely lead to catastrophe—139 gigatons of carbon would be dumped into the atmosphere, likely pushing the temperature of the planet far beyond the universal goal of 1.5 degrees C, with all of its associated climatic consequences.
The COP26 Conference Set a Record for CO2 Emissions, With Air Travel the Main Culprit - The United Nations climate summit in Glasgow, U.K., this year is projected to have had a carbon footprint that roughly doubles that of the last global summit in 2019, according to a report by Arup, a London-based professional services firm.The two-week COP26 climate summit, which ended on Friday, emited about 102,500 tons of carbon dioxide — that's the equivalent of total average annual emissions for more than 8,000 U.K. residents.About 60% of the summit emissions are estimated to come from international flights, while other large contributors include accommodations for delegates and participants, policing and security for the event, transportation to and from venues., and local energy, water, and waste management.The event is set be the most carbon-intensive UN climate conference yet. The 2019 COP25 in Madrid, by comparison, emitted an estimated 51,101 tons of carbon dioxide and the 2015 COP21 in Paris emitted an estimated 43,000 tons of carbon dioxide. World leaders made a slew of climate pledges throughout the summit, including deals to phase out coal, cut methane emissions and end deforestation. Still, environmental activists have accused government ministers and corporations of so-called greenwashing and argued the commitments aren't adequate to address the scale of the climate crisis."The meeting in Glasgow is not supposed to be a demonstration of sustainable lifestyles, and it shouldn't be judged in those terms," Doug Parr, chief scientist for Greenpeace UK, said in a statement. "But the failure to reach any meaningful agreement about limiting aviation's vast carbon emissions — at a conference where 60% of their emissions came from aviation, with a backing chorus of media outrage at the private jet hypocrisy of the elites — really highlights the lack of equity in these talks," Parr added.
COP26: Countries strike climate deal at UN summit to limit heating -Negotiators from nearly 200 countries at the COP26 summit on Saturday reached an agreement to try to prevent progressively worse and potentially irreversible climate impacts. The announcement comes several hours after the scheduled Friday evening deadline. Delegates had struggled to resolve major sticking points, such as phasing out coal, fossil fuel subsidies and financial support to low-income countries. India, among the world's biggest burners of coal, raised a last-minute change of fossil fuel language in the pact, going from a "phase out" of coal to a "phase down." After initial objections, opposing countries ultimately conceded. The U.N. meeting in Glasgow, Scotland, was billed as humanity's last and best chance to keep the all-important goal of 1.5 degrees Celsius alive. This temperature threshold refers to the aspirational target inscribed in the landmark 2015 Paris Agreement. The world's leading scientists have warned the world has already warmed roughly 1.1 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels and the latest projections, despite numerous pledges at the Glasgow summit, show the world is on track for a rise of 2.4 degrees Celsius by the end of the century. U.N. Secretary General António Guterres had bluntly warned the carbon-cutting pledges on the table during the final throes of the marathon talks were "very probably" not enough to avert a climate catastrophe. He told the Associated Press news agency that the goal of keeping 1.5 degrees Celsius alive was on "life support." Climate activists and campaigners have been sharply critical of COP26, describing it as an "exclusionary" fortnight of talks centered on "business as usual and blah, blah, blah." Several countries expressed their grievances to this change and environmental experts are deeply concerned the updated terminology creates a loophole to delay urgently needed climate action. An analysis published by Global Witness on Monday found there were more delegates associated with the fossil fuel industry at COP26 than from any single country. It raised serious questions about the credibility of the talks, particularly because it is the burning of fossil fuels that is the chief driver of the climate crisis. The U.S. and China, the world's two largest emitters, surprised many by agreeing to work together this decade to prevent global heating from surpassing 1.5 degrees Celsius. And a new first-of-its-kind alliance was also launched with countries and subnational groups committing to setting an end date to oil and gas use and halting granting new licenses for exploration. Business leaders and financial institutions, meanwhile, pledged to invest more in "net zero-aligned projects." This has since been criticized, however, for missing the point on fossil fuels. Low-income countries arrived in Glasgow determined to secure compensation for climate-linked "loss and damage," a term used by the U.N. to refer to the destruction already being inflicted on lives, livelihoods and infrastructure. Those on the frontlines of the climate crisis, which are the least responsible for climate change, have long sought financial support from high-income countries to compensate them for this damage. Rich nations, such as the U.S., U.K. and European Union, have been reluctant to accept liability. The agreement, which is not legally binding, falls short of setting up a fund to compensate countries for climate-linked loss and damage. The G-77 group of developing countries expressed "extreme disappointment" at this omission. Shauna Aminath, minister of environment for the Maldives, said on Saturday: "For some, loss and damage may be the beginning of conversation and dialogue, but for us, this is a matter of survival."
At COP26, World Governments Agree to Strengthen Emissions Pledges But Questions Loom —More than 190 nations reached a deal at the United Nations summit here that aims to accelerate greenhouse-gas-emissions cuts across the world, but leaves big questions over how governments will follow through in the coming decade to try to avert the worst effects of global warming.Supporters say the deal—struck Saturday evening after two weeks of negotiations—signals new determination among the world’s governments to shift away from burning fossil fuels, the main source of greenhouse gases that scientists say are causing the earth to warm. The agreement, though, features weaknesses that have hamstrung U.N. climate talks over the decades.Here’s what was on the table, and what actually got accomplished:
- What negotiators wanted: Pledges to cut emissions to levels that scientists think will keep global warming well under 2 degrees Celsius, and close to 1.5 degrees, compared with pre-industrial-era temperatures.
- What they got: Pledges fell short before the summit. The deal requests countries to revisit their cuts in 2022.
- What they wanted: Developing nations wanted as much as $1.3 trillion a year to help with their energy transition and adaptation.
- What they got: Developed countries promised to fulfill previous pledges of $100 billion a year, doubling the funds going to climate-change adaptation by 2025 and setting a process for post-2025 financing.
- What they wanted: Rules for governments to trade carbon credits among each other, along with a framework for international carbon markets.
- What they got: Negotiators agreed on a broad framework that many business leaders hope will spur cross-border trading of carbon credits among companies.
- What they wanted: Some key players wanted a commitment to end the use of fossil fuels.
- What they got: The final deal calls for a “phase down” of coal and “inefficient” fossil fuel subsidies.
It has no enforcement mechanism, relying instead on the good faith of the world’s governments to adhere to its rules as best they can. In key areas, it doesn’t require nations to act, but merely urges or requests them to do so, reflecting wiggle room that was needed to achieve consensus among all governments.U.N. Secretary-General António Guterres reflected the disappointment of many delegates in not getting more concrete commitments through a process that required signoff from almost all of the world’s governments.“The approved texts are a compromise,” he said. “They reflect the interests, the conditions, the contradictions and the state of political will in the world today.”He said the deal makes important steps forward “but unfortunately the collective political will was not enough to overcome some deep contradictions.”U.S. climate envoy John Kerry said the agreement accomplished several U.S. goals and brought the world “closer than ever before to avoiding climate chaos.”The deal asks governments to strengthen their emissions-reduction targets by the end of next year to keep them in line with what scientists think is necessary to meet the climate target of the 2015 Paris accord: keeping global warming well under 2 degrees Celsius, and close to 1.5 degrees, by the end of the century compared with preindustrial-era temperatures.Governments had failed to agree to cuts sufficient to hit that target ahead of the summit here, called COP26. The review next year was seen by delegates who pushed it as a way of wringing fresh cuts from some countries in the near future.Diplomats agreed to insert language calling for a “phase down” of coal and “inefficient” fossil fuel subsidies. The language isn’t binding on any countries, and was watered down from earlier drafts. It was seized upon by many supporters, though, as a symbolic pivot from fossil fuels. The language also marked the first time that coal or fossil fuels were mentioned—and implicitly blamed—in a U.N. deal to fight climate change.Saturday’s agreement also sets new rules for trading carbon credits between countries, allowing governments to achieve their emissions goals by funding greenhouse-gas-reduction projects in another country. Officials expect the rules will lay the foundation for an international carbon market.Many businesses have looked to carbon trading as a way to lower their own net emissions, amid pressure from regulators, investors and consumers. While some jurisdictions, like the European Union and California, already trade carbon, executives hope a U.N. deal might speed the creation of a global marketplace.
COP26 negotiators reach climate agreement in Glasgow, but acknowledge it won’t avert dangerous warming - -Exhausted negotiators from nearly 200 nations struck a deal Saturday intended to propel the world toward more urgent climate action, but without offering the transformative breakthrough scientists say must happen if humanity is to avert disastrous planetary warming. Two weeks of high-profile talks yielded a package that pushes countries to strengthen near-term climate targets and move away from fossil fuels faster. It insists that wealthy countries fulfill a broken promise to help vulnerable nations cope with the rising costs of climate change. And it cracks open the door to future payments developed nations might make for damage already done.Saturday’s agreement, however, does not achieve the most ambitious goal of the 2015 Paris accord — to limit Earth’s warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 Fahrenheit) above preindustrial levels. Instead, delegations left Glasgow with the Earth still on track to blow past that threshold, pushing toward a future of escalating weather crises and irreversible damage to the natural world.The Glasgow climate pact, annotated.And representatives from hard-hit nations feared that the deal still leaves their people facing an existential threat.“The difference between 1.5 and 2 degrees is a death sentence for us,” Aminath Shauna, the Maldives’ minister of environment, climate change and technology, told the summit. “What is balanced and pragmatic to other parties will not help the Maldives adapt in time. It will be too late.”Yet with global temperatures already up more than 1.1 degrees Celsius (2 degrees Fahrenheit), and extreme weather wreaking havoc around the world, it remains to be seen whether this agreement will be sufficient to deal with mounting calamities inflicted by climate change.Negotiators leave Glasgow with key questions unanswered: Can nations muster the political will to deliver on the soaring rhetoric that marked the summit’s start? And can the lurching progress of these annual conferences keep pace with the problem they were designed to solve?Anything short of that will consign future generations to untold suffering, the European Union’s top climate official, Frans Timmermans, told delegates in the waning hours of the summit. Timmermans said he had been pondering what life will be like in 2050 for his 1-year-old grandson.
COP26: Nations strike deal on international carbon markets at Glasgow summit | S&P Global Platts --Negotiators from almost 200 governments have reached a final deal on the rules governing the international trade of emissions reduction units after six years of haggling that had held up the Paris Agreement rulebook. Representatives struck a final deal on Article 6 of the 2015 Paris Agreement at the UN Climate Change Conference Nov. 13 as part of the Glasgow Climate Pact, in a move that is likely to unlock billions of dollars of investment in carbon reduction projects around the world. "The agreed Article 6 rules give countries the tools they need for environmental integrity, to avoid double counting and ultimately to clear a path to get private capital flowing to developing countries," said Kelley Kizzier, vice president for global climate at US-based non-governmental group Environmental Defense Fund. "The carbon market rules allow countries to focus their efforts on ambitious implementation of their emissions-cutting targets," she said in a statement Nov. 13. Agreement on Article 6 was critical because it was holding back agreement on the wider rulebook that sets out how the Paris Agreement will operate. The decisions made at the COP26 summit in Glasgow provide the tools needed for a robust, transparent and accountable carbon market, allowing governments to trade emissions reductions to provide flexibility in how they meet their national climate goals, according to EDF. "The decision eliminates double counting for compliance markets and establishes a strong framework to ensure appropriate accounting for voluntary carbon markets that also supports emissions reductions in countries hosting carbon market activities," said Kizzier. Crucially, negotiators agreed to limit the use of pre-2020 credits from the UN's Clean Development Mechanism in the Paris architecture, avoiding a wholesale flooding of the market for carbon credits that could have sent their price plummeting. The final text states that only CDM credits registered after Jan. 1, 2013 may be used for national targets under the Paris system. "The carryover of credits left over from the Clean Development Mechanism is restricted to some 120 million mt and their use is restricted to the first cycle of national commitments," said Kizzier. CORSIA-eligible carbon credit (CEC) prices have increased by 944% this year and were assessed at $8.35/mt CO2e at the close Nov. 12, according to S&P Global Platts assessments, compared with 80 cents/mt when the assessment was launched Jan. 4. Meanwhile, nature-based credit (CNC) prices have increased by 181% this year and were pegged at $13.05/mt CO2e at the close Nov. 12, according to Platts assessments, compared with $4.65/mt when they were launched on June 14. The final Article 6 rules allow a country hosting an emissions reduction project to decide if the reductions will be counted towards its own target or sold elsewhere for other purposes, and the country must notify a UN supervisory board accordingly. The Article 6.4 text states that voluntary emissions reductions may only be used towards a country's Nationally Determined Contribution if they are authorized by the UN, and the host country must apply a corresponding adjustment for any units sold abroad. This measure avoids one emissions reduction being counted by two countries. Other observers said the final deal on Article 6 clears the way for an expansion of emissions trading under the Paris Agreement. "The guidance for Article 6 sets up a new structure for carbon markets to work in the service of the Paris Agreement goals," the International Emissions Trading Association said in a statement Nov. 13. "The decisions provide clear accounting guidance for emissions trades between countries and launch a new crediting mechanism that will give market access to all countries interested in attracting green investment through the global carbon market," IETA said.
The progress (and failures) of COP26, in 3 charts -After two weeks of tense negotiations at COP26 in Scotland, the world has a new international climate change agreement: the Glasgow Climate Pact. The new document does not replace the landmark Paris Agreement, but rather bolsters it with increased clarity on key issues. One of the major stakes going into this year’s COP was a matter of degrees. The world is teetering on the edge of keeping alive the possibility of limiting warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius. Surpassing that threshold would be a death sentence for small island states and other vulnerable countries, and it all comes down to just how drastically nations are willing to cut their emissions. The pact gives added weight to the 1.5 degrees goal, and demands that countries do more to achieve it. It also calls on rich countries to increase their financial support to help poorer nations adapt to rising seas and extreme weather, another priority for the meeting. And for the first time ever at a COP, the final text references “coal” and “fossil fuels” — the leading causes of climate change that were formerly taboo on the international stage. But reactions to the agreement from many climate advocates and experts were tepid at best. “It’s meek, it’s weak, and the 1.5 degrees C goal is only just alive,” Greenpeace International executive director Jennifer Morgan said in a statement. “But a signal has been sent that the era of coal is ending. And that matters.” Below, we take a look at the three major gaps in international progress on climate change going into COP26, and where they stand now.
- 1. The Emissions Gap. Before COP26, a United Nations analysis found that the world was not on track to achieve the Paris Agreement goal of limiting global warming to “well below” 2 degrees C, let alone the much safer goal of 1.5 degrees C. If countries met their 2030 emissions targets set prior to the start of the conference, the planet would still warm 2.7 degrees C by the end of the century. After COP26, more countries have pledged steeper emissions cuts, but there is still a major gap in ambition between those pledges and what it would take to limit warming to 1.5 degrees C. Climate Action Tracker, a climate analysis firm, analyzed all of the official plans that countries submitted to the U.N. and found that if targets for 2030 were achieved, the world would still likely heat up by about 2.4 degrees C. The group also mapped out what it called an “optimistic” scenario, taking into account the less-official statements made by some countries that they will achieve net-zero emissions by 2050. In that case, the researchers found that the planet would warm by 1.8 degrees C.
- 2. The Fossil Fuel Production Gap. Before COP26, it was taboo to talk about fossil fuels at U.N. climate summits. The phrase “fossil fuel” never made it into the final text of a conference agreement. Negotiators talked about cutting emissions, sure, but largely avoided the sources of energy that are the leading cause of those emissions. This avoidance allowed a world of demand-side policies to expand renewable energy, electric cars, and other clean technologies. But that hasn’t translated into a drop in supply. Oil and gas companies have plans to keep digging for the foreseeable future. Prior to COP26, a United Nations report that analyzed fossil fuel production plans of major economies warned that the world was on track to produce roughly 110 percent more coal, oil, and gas in 2030 than would be consistent with limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees C. After COP26, the walls around the “F” words have started to crumble. During the conference, three dozen countries, including the United States, promised to stop funding fossil fuel projects abroad by the end of 2022. More than 40 countries pledged to phase out coal-fired power, the most carbon-intensive energy source, in the coming decades. The Beyond Oil and Gas Alliance was launched, spearheaded by seven countries who pledged to end new exploration and production of fossil fuels within their borders, and phase out existing production on a timeline that’s consistent with Paris Agreement goals.
- 3. The Climate Finance Gap. Before COP26, the landscape of climate finance looked pretty bleak. Finance is one of the crucial pillars of the Paris Agreement: In Paris, poor countries agreed to limit their carbon emissions (despite having contributed the least to the climate crisis) as long as developed countries provided them with financial support, both to adapt to climate disasters and to switch over to clean energy. So far, however, rich countries have been falling short. Despite promises to deliver $100 billion per year in grants, loans, and other forms of finance by 2020, developed countries were $20 billion short as of 2019. (Numbers from 2020 aren’t available yet.) According to a report released just before the conference, the $100 billion goal likely won’t be met until 2023.After COP26, the situation doesn’t look much better. In Glasgow, countries were expected to chart a faster path to the $100 billion goal and plan how much finance should be allocated after 2025. Some new pledges were made: Japan promised an additional $10 billion, and Scotland made the first-ever contribution to a fund tocompensate countries who have suffered from climate disasters. The final text of the conference agreement “notes with deep regret” that the $100 billion goal hasn’t been met, and “urges” developed countries to follow through on the promise as quickly as possible. Still, negotiators for developing countries emphasized that $100 billion is not nearly enough. Prime Minister Narendra Modi of India said in a speech that rich nations should be supplying $1 trillion in finance by 2030, and agroup of African nations urged at least $1.3 trillion every year after 2025. But no new finance goal was finalized.
Man announces he will quit drinking by 2050 --A Sydney man has set an ambitious target to phase out his alcohol consumption within the next 29 years, as part of an impressive plan to improve his health. The program will see Greg Taylor, 73, continue to drink as normal for the foreseeable future, before reducing consumption in 2049 when he turns 101. He has assured friends it will not affect his drinking plans in the short or medium term. Taylor said it was important not to rush the switch to non-alcoholic beverages. “It’s not realistic to transition to zero alcohol overnight. This requires a steady, phased approach where nothing changes for at least two decades,” he said, adding that he may need to make additional investments in beer consumption in the short term, to make sure no night out is worse off. Taylor will also be able to bring forward drinking credits earned from the days he hasn’t drunk over the past forty years, meaning the actual end date for consumption may actually be 2060. To assist with the transition, Taylor has bought a second beer fridge which he describes as the ‘capture and storage’ method.
COP26 Climate Deal Shows Fragility of New Emissions-Cutting Pledge --U.S. climate envoy John Kerry helped win support at the United Nations summit for a deal this weekend that aims to accelerate emissions-cutting plans and asks countries to strengthen them again next year.Hours later, Mr. Kerry underscored the fundamental weakness of the new agreement when he said the U.S., the world’s second-largest greenhouse-gas emitter, is unlikely to speed up its own reduction plan in a year’s time, arguing that it goes far enough. “That’s stretching the limits right now," he said.The complex deal, signed by more than 190 governments Saturday evening in Glasgow after two weeks of talks, represented a heightened effort by the world’s rich and poor countries alike to reduce greenhouse-gas emissions in hopes of avoiding catastrophic global warming. The provision that governments pledge bigger emissions cuts by the end of next year was an acknowledgment that recent targets set by countries still fall substantially short of what is necessary to meet the goals of the 2015 Paris agreement. It calls for countries to keep warming well below 2 degrees Celsius from preindustrial levels and preferably 1.5 degrees. But the Glasgow deal has no real enforcement mechanism and only asks for new plans “as necessary," giving countries plenty of discretion on whether to do more. Scientists say the reductions needed to avert highly destructive climate change must happen so quickly that few countries can afford to leave their targets unchanged in the coming year. Strengthening the plans is likely to be a tall order. The policies President Biden needs to meet the current U.S. goal are coming along only slowly, and Congress has yet to approve the billions of dollars needed to help. China, the world’s biggest emitter, is unlikely to change its headline targets in the coming year, officials say. Other major emitters have been similarly reluctant. Climate Action Tracker, a scientific consortium that evaluates governments’ emissions plans, says both the U.S.’s and China’s plans are insufficient to meet the goals of the Paris agreement, which underpins much of what governments negotiated in Glasgow.
Cop26 targets too weak to stop disaster, say Paris agreement architects -World leaders will have to return to the negotiating table next year with improved plans to cut greenhouse gases because the proposed targets agreed at the Cop26 summit are too weak to prevent disastrous levels of global heating, the three architects of the Paris agreement have warned. Christiana Figueres, the former UN climate chief who oversaw the 2015 Paris summit, and Laurence Tubiana, the French diplomat who crafted the agreement, have told the Guardian the deadline is essential if the world is to avoid exceeding its 1.5C temperature limit. Laurent Fabius, the former French foreign minister who also oversaw Paris, added: “In the present circumstances [targets] must be enhanced next year.” The last-ditch intervention by such senior figures, with the Glasgow talks reaching their final hours, reveals the heightened alarm among many experts over the chasm between carbon targets and the deep cuts necessary to limit temperature rises to 1.5C above pre-industrial levels. Current national plans – known as nationally determined contributions (NDCs) – would lead to 2.4C of heating, according to an influential analysis this week by Climate Action Tracker. Countries are currently expected to return with better pledges in 2025, but many are now demanding the deadline should be brought forward. This is seen as the most closely fought area of disagreement as the UK hosts struggle to broker a deal. “If that [five years] is the first time that countries are called to increase their ambitions, honestly that’s going to be too late,” said Figueres, founding partner of the Global Optimism thinktank. “This is critically important. We need much more urgency, as this is the critical decade. We need to come back next year. We can’t wait five years for new NDCs.” Figueres and Tubiana said forcing countries to return with improved targets next year was allowed under the legal provisions of the Paris agreement. The European Union and the UN secretary-general, António Guterres, have also intervened to support the proposal. Guterres told the conference last week: “Let’s have no illusions: if commitments fall short by the end of this Cop, countries must revisit their national climate plans and policies. Not every five years. Every year.” Tubiana, now chief of the European Climate Foundation, said: “It’s really important that we come back next year, and in 2023. That must be central to any outcome in Glasgow. This is necessary to fulfil the Paris agreement.” Since the Paris agreement was signed, binding countries to limit temperature rises “well below” 2C above pre-industrial levels while “pursuing efforts” to a 1.5C limit, new science has shown that breaching the 1.5C threshold would lead to disastrous impacts, some irreversible, including the inundation of many low-lying areas. Heating has now reached 1.1C, and extreme weather is already taking hold around the world. A drop of water falls off an iceberg melting in the Nuup Kangerlua Fjord in south-west Greenland ‘We are not on course’: scientists warn action must match words at Cop26 Read more The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has said emissions must be cut by 45% by 2030 to stay within 1.5C.
We Need Far More Radical Thinking Than Any COP26 Deal To Save the Planet -- Yves here. I’m running this post because it makes a very important headline statement, that COP26-type official efforts to address climate change are tantamount to rearranging the deck chairs on the Titanic. But otherwise this article is a hot mess.The piece does stress that deaths resulting from climate change will dwarf Covid deaths, even allowing for a substantial official undercount. It would be nice if an article using Covid as a significant anchor got basic concepts right. For instance, it compares vaccine administration levels to “full three dose vaccination” requirements. It’s embarrassing that the author Paul Rogers hasn’t gotten the memo that vaccine-induced immunity is severely diminished by six months, so vaccinations more often than annually would be needed….of course assuming no variants that substantially or totally escape the vaccines. And he like too many commentators overlook morbidity cost. From GM via e-mail:The risk has never been explained to the public properly and is constantly being minimized in the media. This is not a common cold virus, it does lasting damage to internal organs, even in mild cases, and it destroys your immune system in ways that might not be apparent now but very much will be years down the line. And that the media is entirely silent about.In other words, a more accurate picture of Covid as a hazard to humanity would not in any way undermine Rogers’ point, that climate change damage is on track to be vastly, immeasurably worse.The other, far more peculiar element is that Rogers does notice that COP26 is pointedly silent about the military, but the Rogers shies away from making the obvious observation that armed forces, above all America’s super-sized operations, are a major greenhouse gas producers. Instead he pumps for a nicer, friendlier role (so they become the world’s National Guard?) as if that has any impact on the direct harm they do at their present scale.And as far as a more cooperative military is concerned, perhaps Professor Rogers should become acquainted with the fable of the scorpion and the frog. By Paul Rogers, professor in the department of peace studies at Bradford University, northern England:
'Watered-down hope': Experts wanted more from climate pact (AP) — While world leaders and negotiators are hailing the Glasgow climate pact as a good compromise that keeps a key temperature limit alive, many scientists are wondering what planet these leaders are looking at.Crunching the numbers they see a quite different and warmer Earth.“In the bigger picture I think, yes, we have a good plan to keep the 1.5-degree goal within our possibilities,” United Nations climate chief Patricia Espinosa told The Associated Press, referring to the overarching global goal of limiting warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit) since pre-industrial times.United Kingdom Prime Minister Boris Johnson, the conference host, agreed, calling the deal a “clear road map limiting the rise in global temperatures to 1.5 degrees.”But many scientists are far more skeptical. Forget 1.5 degrees, they say. Earth is still on a path to exceed 2 degrees (3.6 Fahrenheit).“The 1.5C goal was already on life support before Glasgow and now it’s about time to declare it dead,” Princeton University climate scientist Michael Oppenheim told The Associated Press in an email Sunday.A few of the 13 scientists the AP interviewed about the Glasgow pact said they see just enough progress to keep alive the 1.5-degree Celsius limit — and with it, some hope. But barely. The optimists point to many agreements that came out of Glasgow, including a United States-China deal to work harder together to cut emissions this decade, as well as separate multi-nation agreements that target methane emissions and coal-fired power. After six years of failure, a market-based mechanism would kick-start trading credits that reduce carbon in the air.The 1.5-degree mark is the more stringent of two targets from the historic 2015 Paris climate accord. United Nations officials and scientists consider it key because a 2018 scientific report found dramatically worse effects on the world after 1.5 degrees. The world has already warmed 1.1 degrees (2 degrees Fahrenheit) since pre-industrial time, so this is really about a few tenths of a degree more. The United Nations calculated that to limit warming to 1.5 degrees, countries need to cut their emissions in half by 2030. Emissions are now going up, not down, by about 14% since 2010, Espinosa said.German researcher Hans-Otto Portner said the Glasgow conference “got work done, but did not make enough progress.” “Warming will by far exceed 2 degrees Celsius. This development threatens nature, human life, livelihoods, habitats and also prosperity,” said Portner, who co-chairs one of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change scientific reports the United Nations relies on.
China and India Will Have to Explain Themselves on Coal, COP26 President Says - The president of COP26 said Sunday that China and India will need to explain why they insisted a crucial passage of the U.N.-brokered climate deal was changed at the last minute. "China and India are going to have to explain themselves to the most climate vulnerable countries in the world," U.K. lawmaker Alok Sharma, who led the COP26 negotiations, told the BBC's Andrew Marr. It comes a day after nearly 200 countries agreed on a deal to try to prevent the worst consequences of the climate crisis, following two weeks of talks in Glasgow, Scotland. The wide-ranging agreement, which is not legally binding, was amended at the eleventh hour after interventions from India and China — both among the world's biggest burners of coal. This led to a change in language about fossil fuels; the pact now refers to the "phase down" of coal, rather than the "phase out" of coal, as originally proposed. After initial objections, opposing countries ultimately conceded to the amendment. "Over the past weeks obviously there were certain countries that did not want to have coal language in this compact," Sharma added. "But at the end of the day, this is the first time ever that we've got a language about coal in a COP decision. I think that is absolutely historic." Speaking to CNBC Saturday, however, Sharma admitted there was "certainly more work to be done on this issue." "When we took on the role of COP presidency, I said very clearly that I wanted us to try and consign coal power to history," he said in answer to a question at a press conference following the deal. "If, at that time, I'd said to you, that here, towards the end of this year at COP, we would have ensured that all of the biggest economies will be no longer financing international coal projects and we have managed to get the sort of agreement we have here, I think people would have been skeptical." He added: "There's absolutely progress. Should we be going faster? Of course."
More than 670 private flights helped make COP26 most carbon heavy summit – The tally of private jets during COP26 has risen to more than 670 with world leaders and billionaires among those onboard (Picture: PA/Getty) Billionaires and world leaders were among those on more than 670 private jets that flew into Glasgow and nearby airports during COP26. The parade of charter air travel used by heads of state and dignitaries continued into the final week of the UN Climate Change Conference. The figures were revealed as a government-commissioned report found that COP26 is on course to be the most carbon-intensive summit of its kind. The event is expected to emit around 102,500 tonnes of CO2 equivalent (CO2e) – twice as much as the last one in Madrid – with 60% of emissions coming from international flights, according to the preliminary research. The stream of private jets has arrived from locations including Maryland and Washington in the US, Moscow, Abu Dhabi, Kazakhstan, Turkey and the Congo, separate analysis by Flightradar24 shows. There were 95 non-commercial flights in the week before COP26 and 389 as attendance spiked in the first week, according to the tracking platform. During the second half to midday today (Friday, November 12), there were another 192 flights recorded by the mapping website. The flights were all into Edinburgh, Glasgow and Prestwick airports, excluding cargo, regular or local journeys. Although most originated in the United States and European countries, Russia was among the biggest users of private aircraft, despite President Vladimir Putin not attending the talks. Airline companies used include those specialising in international executive corporate travel at the most luxurious end of the market. The Rossiya-Special Flight Squadron, which is said to operate under the command of Kremlin as part of the country’s presidential fleet, also appears among the flights recorded. The latest plane landed in Edinburgh yesterday after taking off in Moscow, according to Flightradar24.
Private jets are suddenly so popular there's a global shortage - Life must feel a slog for Britain’s beleaguered billionaires. It’s bad enough they’ve had to spend much of the past 18 months holed up in one of their luxury properties, scraping by during a catastrophic scarcity of Michelin-starred chefs and multilingual nannies. Even worse, supply issues have caused a worrying shortage of vintage Champagne for this Christmas and they can’t lay their hands on a case of 2015 Romanee-Conti Grand Cru, perfect burgundy with the turkey at £24,000 bottle, for love nor money. And now there’s a global shortage of private jets, even second-hand models once owned by dodgy Russians or Taylor Swift. Not because, finally, sufficient members of the uber wealthy have come to their senses, seen how bad private jets are for the environment, opted for easyJet and the bottom has fallen out of the market. No, quite the opposite. (© Provided by Daily Mail ( Instead, a record-breaking surge in private jet use by the super-rich has fuelled the shortage in planes as operators struggle to cope with demand. So far this year, more than 4.3 million private jet flights have taken place, according to the aviation data provider Wingx. In the first week of November alone they were up 54 per cent on the same period last year and up 16 per cent on 2019. And while mega-rich Americans seem to be driving the boom, Britons are very much in the game. It turns out the Isle of Man alone is home to more private jets than France, Italy or Spain, for goodness sake. The extraordinary demand is apparently driven by a combination of the erratic return of commercial flights — with pared- down timetables and constantly changing flight times — and the extraordinary boom in wealth of the world’s richest people, few of whom blink before snapping up a £45 million Gulfstream. If only they could. Because the average waiting time now for a brand new jet is well over a year. Regardless of whether you’re after the ever-popular Bombardier BD 700 Global Express that can accommodate 12-16 passengers and is favoured by Steven Spielberg, Bill Gates and Celine Dion. Or even the super long-range BBJ 777X that seats 75 guests and will set you back over £300 million. Oh, how frustrating! The whole process will take even longer if, like Taylor and Oprah, you’re keen to splash a bit more cash to customise your plane inside and out. After all, what could be nicer than creating a cosy home from home with feather beds, Italian marble bathroom, gym, priceless artworks, ornate fireplace complete with fake fire and even a hand-stitched leather roulette table to perk up all those dreary flying hours.
U.S. EPA will not rewrite airplane emissions rules finalized under Trump (Reuters) -The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) said on Monday it will not rewrite the first-ever standards regulating greenhouse gas emissions from airplanes finalized in the last days of former President Donald Trump's administration. President Joe Biden had directed the EPA in January to consider whether to rewrite the airplane emissions rules, which face a legal challenge from 12 states and three environmental groups that say the rules do not go far enough. Instead, the Biden administration said on Monday, it will press for ambitious new international emissions standards at the upcoming round of international negotiations in February at the U.N. International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO). Joe Goffman, the acting head of the EPA Air and Radiation office, told Reuters in an interview Monday, that it was important to work with the international community and to move quickly on the next round of emissions talks. "We could have really achieved a Pyrrhic victory by tightening the rule and then finding the aviation industry avoided complying by certifying their engines via other governments," Goffman said. Liz Jones, an attorney at the Center for Biological Diversity, one of the groups that sued, said "the Biden administration has taken climate hypocrisy and delay to new heights.... The EPA twiddled its thumbs for nine months before deciding it would rather defend a do-nothing rule than set any meaningful limits on aircraft emissions." The states said in February the regulation's greenhouse gas emission standards "by EPA’s own analysis, will fail to reduce the emissions of any aircraft, and will prompt no action at all by manufacturers to reduce aircraft emissions." They argue the EPA should have considered that "minority and low-income communities are disproportionately located near airports and exposed to greater criteria and hazardous air pollutants from aircraft takeoff and landing emissions, which more stringent greenhouse gas emission standards could have reduced." The new rules apply to new-type designs as of January 2020 and to in-production airplanes or those with amended type certificates starting in 2028. Goffman said rewriting the rule "would have been disruptive for our industry, it would have been disruptive for the international process and in the three-dimensional world not gained us anything." Airplanes have been the largest source of transportation greenhouse gas emissions not subject to rules.
Will U.S. ever put a price on carbon as part of climate change policy? - The world needs to reduce carbon levels, and one way is through a carbon tax, a strategy the U.S. has been debating for decades. With urgent calls to lower greenhouse gas emissions globally, putting a price on carbon was one of the major points of discussion among world leaders at the COP26 conference in Glasgow earlier this month. Consensus on a global carbon price is growing, according to Lord Greg Barker, executive chairman at EN+ and co-chair of the Carbon Pricing Leadership Coalition. "We need countries to come together to agree on international standards in order to make that big shift to the low carbon economy," Barker told CNBC in an interview from COP26 last week. "It would be much better for the world if there was a common carbon price." As of now, Barker says there are 69 countries with a carbon price ranging from $1 to $139 per metric ton. The U.S. is not one of them. Barker told CNBC most economists agree that carbon pricing is the most effective tool there is to transition to a low carbon economy. Carbon pricing shifts the liability for the consequences of climate change to the polluters who are responsible, according to the World Bank. The Biden administration has outlined $555 billion in spending to confront climate change, though the plan does not address carbon pricing. The bill does include a proposed methane fee incentivizing oil and gas companies to reduce their methane emissions. A policy to apply a carbon tax was considered as a "plan B" during negotiations over the current climate package, according to the New York Times, after Biden's clean electricity program was cut from the spending bill last month. The U.S. has considered carbon import fees and emissions trading that would apply to carbon-intensive products imported to the country. "But carbon import fees only make sense if you have some kind of domestic U.S. carbon policy," says Richard Newell, president of Resources for the Future, a nonpartisan energy and environment research organization. He thinks a price on carbon ultimately is achievable as part of U.S. policy as the world grapples with the seriousness of climate change and turns more to financial incentives to reach a low-carbon ecosystem that supports the entire economy.
EPA chief travels south Louisiana to learn more about pollution, environmental justice - The country's top environmental regulator is traveling across south Louisiana this week, holding conversations with local and regional leaders on how to help low-income and minority communities that are disproportionately affected by environmental hazards. Environmental Protection Agency Administrator Michael Regan kicked off his visit Tuesday in New Orleans East, listening to concerns raised by more than a dozen researchers, environment advocates, lawyers and business leaders, among others. A day earlier, President Joe Biden signed a $1.2 trillion infrastructure bill that includes about $240 billion for environmental justice projects. Since taking office, Regan said, he has asked his staff to detail how the agency can incorporate environmental justice and equity into all of its functions, making it "part of the DNA." Environmental justice advocates gather with EPA Administrator Michael Regan for a roundtable discussion to talk about regional issues at the Deep South.Before he was tapped to be the first Black man to lead the EPA, Regan oversaw the North Carolina Department of Environmental Quality, creating its first environmental justice advisory committee and spearheading negotiations with Duke Energy Corp. over the 2014 coal ash spill in the Dan River. His Louisiana visit serves to give the EPA chief personal exposure to environmental issues in a different state and to demonstrate the Biden administration's stated commitment to environmental justice. "I've been working on environmental justice issues for quite some time, not as long as some, but not as short as others," Regan said in his opening remarks Tuesday, before the event was closed to reporters. "This information is grounded in data, it's grounded in science. It's not a feeling; it's factual, and we can prove it." The meeting was marked by calls for the federal agency to reject carbon capture and sequestration as a solution to the climate crisis, increase air monitoring of industry and launch a civil rights investigation into "Cancer Alley," the nickname of some environment advocates for Louisiana's 85-mile-long chemical corridor between New Orleans and Baton Rouge. "The EPA should bring its full legal tools and authority to the work of achieving environmental justice," said Monique Harden, the Deep South Center for Environmental Justice's assistant director of law and policy, after the meeting. "That means stronger oversight of the [Louisiana] Department of Environmental Quality and the Department of Natural Resources, which have done a really horrible job in Louisiana communities for decades."
Lithium drilling is happening now at California's Salton Sea - Barely a mile from the southern shore of the Salton Sea — an accidental lake deep in the California desert, a place best known for dust and decay — a massive drill rig stands sentinel over some of the most closely watched ground in American energy.There’s no oil or natural gas here, despite a cluster of Halliburton cement tanks and the hum of a generator slowly pushing a drill bit through thousands of feet of underground rock. Instead, an Australian company is preparing to tap a buried reservoir of salty, superheated water to produce renewable energy — and lithium, a crucial ingredient in electric car batteries.The $500-million project is finally getting started after years of hype and headlines about the Imperial Valley someday becoming a powerhouse in the fight against climate change. The developer, Controlled Thermal Resources, began drilling its first lithium and geothermal power production well this month, backed by millions of dollars from investors including General Motors. If the “Hell’s Kitchen” project succeeds — still a big “if” — it will be just the second commercial lithium producer in the United States. It will also generate clean electricity around the clock, unlike solar and wind farms that depend on the weather and time of day.On a hot afternoon last week, hard-hatted workers crowded onto a platform next to the 170-foot derrick, using their hands to remove clumps of clay being coughed up from underground and threatening to slow the drill bit’s descent.Other than that unexpected hitch, the operation was going smoothly. The drill had reached a depth of about 900 feet, on its way to a reservoir that seismic surveys showed would begin at about 4,000 feet, with temperatures of at least 600 degrees Fahrenheit. The briny water is rich with lithium and other valuable minerals. Controlled Thermal is eager to reach that lucrative deposit.“If we’re lucky, we’ll finish [drilling] before 40 days. But you don’t know until you actually get down there,” Turner said.
Biden submits treaty fighting climate super-pollutants for Senate approval - The Biden administration submitted a treaty amendment aimed at curbing a set of climate super-pollutants for Senate approval on Tuesday, White House officials confirmed. The United States played a key role in forging the Kigali Amendment to the 1987 Montreal Protocol, which compels countries to phase down hydrofluorocarbons — human-made chemicals hundreds to thousands of times as powerful as carbon dioxide — by more than 80 percent by the middle of the century. But the Trump administration declined to transmit it to the Senate and reversed Obama-era rules aimed at cutting these chemicals, known as HFCs, which are widely used in refrigeration and air conditioning. Curbing the use of hydrofluorocarbons is rare climate policy that garners support from both parties. It will need significant GOP backing to pass. The amendment, like all treaties, will require the approval of a two-thirds supermajority of the chamber to become law. Democrats and Republicans alike rallied around an agreement a year ago to slash use of these potent greenhouse gases, making it possible for the Environmental Protection Agency to regulate them. The EPA finalized a rule in September that will ensure the United States meets the targets outlined in the international agreement.
Ocean City, fishermen sound off on US Wind encroachment, offshore wind - After an on-the-water standoff between commercial fisherman Jimmy Hahn and a US Wind survey boat, Rep. Andy Harris met with area fisherman to discuss encroachment into fishing areas. The closed meeting Wednesday, also attended by state Sen. Mary Beth Carozza, R-38-Worcester, included more than 12 fishermen primarily from Ocean City who discussed survey ships damaging potentially lucrative fishing pots in allowed fishing areas. "On Nov. 1 at approximately 3 p.m., we were on on our way to set more conch pots and I noticed a US Wind survey boat was tearing through my gear," Hahn said. "I contacted them on a radio channel, as well as our fishing liaison from US Wind, and we had a conversations for 30 minutes and they would not stop going through my gear." What followed was Hahn placing his ship between his pots and the much larger boat. Eventually, the survey ship begged off. "US Wind sent me an email on Oct. 22 stating I was allowed to fish in an area from the beach to 7.5 miles offshore. They should honor what they say," Hahn said. "I talked to them numerous times and their fishing liaison, and they agreed to pay for the cost of the gear, but I want to be paid for what the pot would have earned for the year." For fishermen like Hahn, time is of the essence when his season lasts only three months. According to Hahn, a quarter of his usual gear is now unusable following the incident. "If these wind mills are allowed to be placed out here, we're out of business. You'll no longer see any fresh seafood coming into Ocean City," Hahn said. "This is not a done deal because US Wind doesn't have all its permits, and Rep. Harris can get the word out that (US Wind) isn't doing what it's supposed to be doing."
'This is our moment to be bold': Wisconsin Democrats unveil 22 bills to combat climate change | Wisconsin Public RadioWisconsin Democratic lawmakers unveiled a sweeping package of nearly two dozen bills that seek to reduce the effects of climate change and support the clean energy transition.The package of 22 bills unveiled Monday by Democratic Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes, Rep. Greta Neubauer, D-Racine, and other lawmakers calls for funding programs and policy changes to support energy efficiency, sustainable farming practices, training for clean energy jobs and a just transition to renewable energy. The proposals would also support climate change research, planning and education."It's important for Wisconsin to return to its rightful place, to assume the responsibility that we've always had to be good stewards of this land, to promote clean energy, and also to lead the fight against climate change," said Barnes.Barnes, who is running for Republican U.S. Sen. Ron Johnson’s seat, chaired the Governor’s Task Force on Climate Change. The task force produced 55 recommendations on ways to adapt to and reduce the effects of climate change. The recommendations focused on environmental justice, climate resilience, energy, transportation, agriculture, education, forestry, food and jobs.Democrats say the legislative package builds on that work as more than 200 nations reached a deal over the weekend to phase down the use of coal. World leaders seek to limit warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius to stave off the worst effects of climate change, but scientists warn that temperatures are likely to cross that level of warming in the next decade."We have no time to waste if we want to give young people a fighting chance. We have a crisis on our hands," said Neubauer. "But we also have an opportunity to make life better for each other and for the people who come after us. Instead of importing fossil fuels and undermining our health, we can build things here. We can invest in our people."Some proposals mirrored items included in Gov. Tony Evers’ budget proposal, including a measure that would increase utility contributions to the Focus on Energy program. The move was anticipated to generate an additional $100 million in funding for the program. Republican lawmakers stripped that and hundreds of other proposals from Evers’ budget earlier this year.Barnes noted clean energy, environmental justice and climate proposals were among items removed from Evers' budget.
UMD students organize and rally against Minnesota Power - UMD students who are concerned about clean energy were out rallying in front of Minnesota power Saturday. They are calling on the company to cancel the proposed Nemadji Trail energy center in Superior. Students there citing that the proposed energy center will pollute the Twin Ports area and they say the finances could be directed elsewhere. One of the main organizers Shelby Suhr says, “So number one the pollution that would come from the gas plant. Also the transportation of the gas is extremely intrusive and expensive. The whole project it's self is expensive, when we have the infrastructure to support clean renewable energy in our communities." The event was organized by M-PIRG, the Minnesota public interest research group at UMD.
Climate Activists Found Guilty of Disorderly Conduct - (AP) — Most of the climate activists who held a protest outside J.P. Morgan Chase Bank in Wilmington have been found guilty of disorderly conduct and civil unrest. The Delaware State News reports that a New Castle County Justice of the Peace on Friday found 11 of 15 activists guilty in the June 28 protest. For several hours, the group of senior citizens protested on the steps of the building and the sidewalk before some moved to the middle of the street with rocking chairs, sitting in the flow of traffic to direct attention to the climate change crisis and Chase Bank’s funding of fossil fuels. All of the accused were offered a plea deal of a $10 fine, according to a news release from the Walk for Our Grandchildren movement. Two protesters took the plea deal because they were unable to make the trial. Two others were represented by a lawyer and were acquitted due to lack of evidence against them. The 11 who were found guilty were given a $25 fine, plus fees and assessments, which brought their total to $97 each. They all received probation.
Despite concerns over CO2, wood pellet maker courts new industries --The world's largest wood pellet maker, Enviva, says it sees a bright future for its industry as it expands sales beyond the energy sector to industrial customers who need help meeting their climate change goals. Until now, the Maryland-based company has focused on selling to energy companies in Europe and Asia that burn pellets in place of coal to create electricity. But two weeks ago, Enviva announced its first contract with an industrial company.The 10-year deal is with an unnamed European company that plans to refine wood pellets into biofuels, including aviation fuel and biodiesel. As with the energy sector, these would replace fossil fuels in these other industries. "This is an important milestone for us, and is the first of many we see ahead as we work with large industrial customers around the world to not only decarbonize their energy supply chain, but also to make their difficult-to-abate industrial processes less greenhouse-gas intensive and more sustainable," CEO John Keppler said during Enviva's quarterly earnings call with investors. Enviva harvests trees across the South and turns them into wood pellets. The company operates pellet plants and shipping ports from Virginia to Mississippi. That includes four plants and the port of Wilmington in North Carolina. Wood pellets are billed as "renewable energy" to replace fossil fuels because trees can be replanted. But there's been a lot of pushback on that recently.For one, scientists say wood pellets actually emit more greenhouse gases than coal when burned. And independent researchers say global rules that allow power plants to count wood pellets as "zero carbon" fail to take into account all the carbon emitted in harvesting, transportation and processing and the initial loss of trees that otherwise would be storing carbon. Enviva argues that the carbon emissions are counted when trees are cut and notes that the U.N. endorses wood pellets as one solution to climate change. Enviva officials say emerging technologies to capture carbon from smokestacks are a complement to their renewable fuel.
What 11 power company execs say about coal, Biden, renewables - Power companies are being battered by rising fuel and supply costs even with winds at their back heading into 2022 as billions of dollars roll out of Washington to spur energy infrastructure projects.“It’s not a gale-force wind, but it’s a little bit of momentum out there in the world for us to tap into,” said Michael Skelly, the CEO of Grid United, a Houston-based transmission developer.Even so, third-quarter corporate earnings calls this month revealed the wobbly shape of the U.S. economic recovery after an 18-month pandemic. Power generation and utility executives worried about the effects of rising fuel costs that eventually are passed along to consumers. Coal is in greater demand and renewables are being hit by supply issues, raising questions about emissions.E&E News reviewed calls and comments from 11 companies across the power sector. The effect of a global supply crunch weighed on CEOs. But many also sounded optimistic. They’re keeping a close eye on Congress, including implementation of recently passed infrastructure legislation and the climate and energy components of a proposed $1.7 trillion-plus social spending bill. What’s important, for some, is how federal policy and new sources of project financing are used to create new markets for energy technology.“What do consumers want?” Skelly asked at a Houston conference hosted by Greentown Labs, a Massachusetts-based energy tech incubator that has a Texas location. “They just want reliable energy, and they want it to be inexpensive, and they kinda hope it’s clean.” At the same time, regulated utility companies must navigate local realities. That was reinforced this month as Arizona Public Service Co., which is part of Phoenix-based Pinnacle West Capital Corp., said it would take legal action after a decision by Arizona regulators cut rates and disallowed certain spending designed to help curb coal plant emissions (Energywire, Nov. 5).“When you start thinking about the amount of investments that we need to put in and if every time we do that, there is a look backwards to say, ‘Well, maybe there is a different technology that would have been better or cheaper,’ it makes it really hard to think about how you’re going to navigate this clean energy transition,” Jeff Guldner, Pinnacle West’s CEO, told analysts.Here are three trends to watch in the U.S. electricity sector:
Days of cold and death: Amid power loss, Austin's death toll climbed (note: this is a listing with biographies of the Austin Texas residents who died during last February's freeze) The worst freeze to hit Austin in more than a generation started Feb. 12 and lasted for six full days, shattering a record of five days and 20 hours set in December 1983. Two nights later, on Feb. 14, a snowfall of historic proportions began to blanket Austin. By the next morning, Austin recorded more than 6 inches of snow with nearly 8 inches in other parts of Travis County. That event produced the most snow Austin has seen in more than 70 years, when about 6.5 inches fell in January 1949. Officially, state officials say 28 Travis County deaths, not including those certified by private physicians, were tied to the weather event. But pathologists and other experts says the number could be much higher. In the wake of the disaster, the Statesman's reporting revealed: As people froze to death or lost limbs to frostbite, dozens of the power plants entrusted to keep residents warm and safe faltered — just like they did in 2011. In an apparent case of ignoring lessons from the past, nearly 75% of power generation units that sustained outages 10 years ago, when another snow-and-ice storm packed unusual force, also had shutdowns or reduced electrical production in February — this time bringing the electricity grid that serves the bulk of the state to near collapse as many additional units foundered as well. Had the grid totally shut down, ERCOT would have relied on independently powered electricity production units at 13 power plants across Texas to jumpstart restoration. They are supposed to be the grid's most reliable, and Texans pay a premium to ensure those units are the electrical source of last resort in the face of a statewide blackout. But during the February freeze, nearly half of the power plants contracted to be the most reliable — six out of 13 — failed. During their last meeting ahead of the winter storm that left millions of Texans without electricity and potable water for days on end, top ERCOT officials spent 40 seconds discussing the impending storm and whether the state was prepared. Five ERCOT board members resigned in the fallout. Roughly 48 hours before the storm hit, Gov. Greg Abbott sought the counsel of climate change denier Joe Bastardi. In the days after the storms, Abbott echoed Bastardi's talking points, blaming the outages on renewable energy sources, such as wind turbines that went offline during the storms. However, data show that the failure of natural gas plants was the largest cause of the power shortfall. About half of Texas' natural gas supply went down during the freeze, according to a federal report, with some outages triggered by gas producers' failure to register as critical infrastructure. In measures it passed aimed at making the grid more reliable, the Legislature largely left natural gas producers untouched. Wells are now required to register as critical infrastructure and some weatherization standards were adopted. However, some experts have said the standards were watered down and lack any ability to be enforced. In October, the Texas Public Utility Commission ordered electric companies to document that they have made their “best efforts” to fix known problems that led to failures during the deadly freeze and to act on decade-old winterization recommendations that state regulators largely disregarded until this year. However, companies won’t be penalized if they suffer weather-related failures or outages again.
Texas winter freeze: State warned to make changes to power grid after four extreme cold events in last 10 years, report shows - -- On Tuesday, the federal government issued its final report into February's winter freeze that knocked out power for millions of Texans and killed at least 200 people.
The report from the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) recommended owners of power generators in Texas to winterize their equipment so a repeat of the power grid failure doesn't happen again. History has already repeated itself. The report shows in just the past decade, there have been four instances of extreme cold that threatened the power grid. Each time, the report says the commission issued recommendations to keep similar events from occurring. To read the full report, visit FERC's website.The final report shows the following:
- 81% of freeze-related generating unit outages occurred at temperatures above the units' stated ambient design temperature
- 87% of unplanned generation outages due to fuel issues were related to natural gas
- Natural gas fuel supply issues were caused by natural gas production declines
- Generator owners should retrofit existing generating units, and when building new units account for weather events including extreme temperatures
- Generator owners and operators should perform annual training on winterization plans
- Develop corrective action plans should freeze- related outages occur
'We could handle it right now' — AEP chief says U.S. power grid can sustain influx of EVs - The U.S. power grid will be able to handle the influx of electric vehicles in the coming years, American Electric Power CEO Nick Akins told CNBC on Friday. "We could handle it right now," Akins said in an interview on "Mad Money" with Jim Cramer. Cramer said that some parts of the country may handle the influx better than others. "There are some utilities that are very good at keeping up and there are others that aren't," Cramer reflected while speaking with Akins. "Not all grid is created equally." Akins said that while there are challenges across the country, the electric grid is dependable. "I think certainly infrastructure at large in this country is challenged in some fashion, but certainly in the electric grid we focus on the resiliency and reliability of the grid," Akins said. The winter storm power grid failure in Texas sparked conversation about grids across the country. Akins said it's a cautionary tale of transitioning a grid too quickly. "There were tremendous impacts on the grid, so we have to be really careful about how we transition in the future." With some of the auto industry gradually making the transition to electric, the grid will slowly be shifting with it. AEP has plans for three wind farms in Oklahoma and a solar project planned in Wisconsin. The U.S. could benefit from a hybrid system right now, Akins suggested. "Layering in renewables to lower the emissions output but still have the fossil generation in place for the time you need it like the dead of winter ... do it in a way to make that transition," he said. "That's why all of these resources are actually needed." AEP plans to invest $38 billion in capital from 2022 to 2026, including an operation to construct a more efficient grid. The stock closed down slightly Friday at $82 per share. "Industrial activity continues to grow, there's no question about it ... maybe some of it is catch-up in terms of the downturn that occurred during much of the Covid activities, but certainly we see that continuing to grow," Akins said. On the residential side, many people are still working from home and AEP is "benefitting from the continued residential output," he added. AEP provides power to about 5.5 million customers in 11 states, including Arkansas, Indiana, Kentucky, Louisiana, Michigan, Ohio, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas, Virginia and West Virginia.
Short-Term Energy Outlook – EIA - The share of electricity generation produced by natural gas in the United States averages 36% in 2021 and 35% in 2022 in our forecast, down from 39% in 2020. In 2021, our forecast share for natural gas as a generation fuel declines in response to our expectation of a higher delivered natural gas price for electricity generators, which we forecast will average $5.12/MMBtu compared with $2.39/MMBtu in 2020. As a result of the higher expected natural gas prices, the forecast share of electricity generation from coal rises from 20% in 2020 to about 23% in 2021 and 22% in 2022. For renewable energy sources, new additions of solar and wind generating capacity are offset somewhat by reduced generation from hydropower this year, resulting in the forecast share of all renewables in U.S. electricity generation to average 20% in 2021, about the same as last year, before rising to 22% in 2022. The nuclear share of U.S. electricity generation declines from 21% in 2020 to 20% in 2021 and 2022. We expect coal consumption in the electric power sector to rise by 80 million short tons (MMst), or 18%, in 2021. The increase in the electric power sector’s use of coal reflects higher natural gas prices this year compared with last year. However, electricity generation from coal-fired power plants has not increased as much in response to rising natural gas prices as it has in the past or by as much as our models had forecast earlier this year. The lower price responsiveness of coal for electricity generation, which is likely the result of constraints on coal supply and low coal stocks, is contributing to upward pressure on natural gas prices. U.S. coal exports in our forecast rise by 20 MMst (29%) in 2021. Higher U.S. exports reflect rising global demand for coal amid high natural gas prices. We expect exports to remain relatively unchanged in 2022, when a 3 MMst increase in metallurgical coal exports is partly offset by a 2 MMst decline in steam coal exports. U.S. coal production growth has not kept pace with rising domestic demand for steam coal in the electric power sector and export growth, leading to a draw down in coal inventories held by the electric power sector.
West Virginia Coal Association president: Infrastructure package to provide boost to coal industry — The recently passed $1 trillion infrastructure package is estimated to be the largest investment in the nation’s roads and bridges since the creation of the Interstate Highway System in the 1950s.The Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act, which recently received final congressional approval and was signed by President Joe Biden, is good news for the state’s coal industry, according to West Virginia Coal Association President Chris Hamilton.“The core of the infrastructure package is intended to help repair and build out new infrastructure — everything from our roads, bridges, airports, interstate systems and rail systems — so there will obviously be greater power demands,” he said. “Also, for steelmaking. It’s good for coal both for power generation and the raw materials used in the steelmaking process and cement making.” Investing in the nation’s infrastructure has historically been a bipartisan issue. However, the 13 House Republicans who voted in favor of the Act, including Rep. David McKinley, R-W.Va., have recently come under fire from fellow Republicans critical of the legislation. This is likely partly because the Build Back Better bill, the multi-trillion dollar package containing the bulk of President Joe Biden’s social agenda, was linked to the infrastructure package in the media and in the minds of the public, Hamilton said. “For all intents and purposes, that was being considered along with the infrastructure bill,” he said. “Some of the lines became blurred between what was in the infrastructure bill and what was in the budget reconciliation bill.” The bill contains a number of provisions that will ultimately benefit the coal industry and its stakeholders, Hamilton said. “There are monies in here for carbon capture utilization and storage; there is money in there to help jump start this whole universe of coal-to-products and advanced carbon alternatives,” he said. “There is money in here for rare earth elements to be able to take that to full-scale feasibility demonstration products. And there’s also the Abandoned Mine Lands program. On balance, there’s a lot of things in here for coal.”
A coal plant fights to stay open. It could enrich Manchin - The power plant that buys coal from Sen. Joe Manchin’s company is fighting to stay open by generating electricity for cryptocurrency mining after being on the brink of economic collapse for years. The plan would ensure that the plant keeps burning some of the dirtiest coal on the market, and continue a lucrative business for Manchin’s family company that sells waste fuel collected at shuttered mines. The Grant Town power plant is named after a former coal baron, Robert Grant, who opened a mine in the early 1900s along Paw Paw Creek in northeast West Virginia. At 80 megawatts, it’s one of the smallest plants in the state — and it’s the only one that still burns waste coal. And it plans to stay that way. The plant’s owner revealed in state documents last Friday a proposal to continue burning gob to power superfast computers for cryptocurrency mining online. That could preserve a large portion of Manchin’s personal income. His company, Enersystems, supplies the plant with nearly all of the gob, or waste coal, it uses for electricity generation from large piles of discarded shale, clay and slurry dug out from two nearby coal mines that closed years ago. Manchin has collected more than $5 million from Enersystems since he was elected to the Senate in 2010, according to financial disclosure documents. His stock in the company is worth up to another $5 million. The plant’s plan to continue burning gob comes as Manchin could determine the outcome of historic climate legislation as he’s profiting from his company’s sale of coal. Manchin threatened to vote against the $1.75 trillion reconciliation bill if one of its strongest climate provisions wasn’t removed. The Clean Electricity Performance Program would have rewarded utilities for selling more clean energy, putting pressure on coal plants to close. “Why pay the utilities for something they’re going to do anyway, because we’re transitioning,” Manchin told reporters recently. That’s not happening at Grant Town. Its use of gob makes it one of the dirtiest plants of its size in West Virginia. Burning waste coal can be more expensive than using other forms of fuel, like natural gas, and keeping the plant running has driven up utility rates in one of the country’s poorest states. “You have Joe Manchin talking about how utilities are already moving toward clean energy so he doesn’t want to support these new clean energy policies, but you can look at his home state and it’s not happening there,” said Dave Anderson, policy and communications manager for the Energy and Policy Institute. “The continued reliance on coal waste is just costing ratepayers more money so it’s pretty hard to justify. Which makes the fact that he is still making money off of coal more concerning.”
Chinese Coal Production Jumps To Six-Year High In October Chinese coal production in October rose to the highest level since March 2015 as the energy crisis in the world’s second-largest economy prompted authorities to seek to increase coal supply and reduce coal prices.China, the largest consumer and producer of coal, saw its October output rising to 357.09 million tons, compared to 334.1 million tons in the previous month, according to data from China’s National Bureau of Statistics cited by Reuters.Chinese authorities have recently ordered the expansion of more than a hundred coal mines amid a coal and energy crisis in the country that led to power outages at factories.The rush to secure more domestic supply resulted in a monthly coal output in October that was at its highest in six and a half years—since March 2015. Last week, China’s daily coal production hit a record high of 12.05 million tons, the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) said as quoted by theXinhua news agency.The record-high daily coal output has helped ensure energy supply and stabilize prices, NDRC, the top planning body in China, said.It’s not certain whether China could keep high coal production levels in the winter months when colder weather typically curtails some operations and hampers logistics, analysts tell Reuters.The soaring coal prices and the energy crisis hit China in the third quarter and continued into the beginning of the fourth quarter. In September, the world’s second-largest economy restricted power use in at least 20 regions and provinces that contribute more than half to the Chinese economy.Surging coal prices and power shortages in China slowed the growth of its economy in the third quarter and are now threatening to spill over to the global supply chains in the fourth quarter. China has moved in recent weeks to squash the surge in coal prices with government intervention, which resulted in a plunge in the price of coal.
Residential coal use in China results in many premature deaths, models indicate - Coal combustion by power plants and industry pollutes the air, causing many governments to implement mitigation actions and encourage cleaner forms of energy. Now, a new study in ACS' Environmental Science & Technology indicates that in China, indoor air pollution from residential coal burning causes a disproportionate number of premature deaths from exposure to tiny, inhalable pollutants known as PM2.5. In China, coal is still the largest source of energy, although recent mitigation actions have replaced some coal-fired power plants with petroleum- or natural gas-powered plants. Also, many coal-fired power plants and industrial boilers have installed equipment that reduces emissions. However, some households continue to use coal for heating and cooking, especially in rural areas, and the health impacts of this indoor PM2.5 exposure compared with other forms of indoor and outdoor exposure are largely unknown. Therefore, Shu Tao and colleagues wanted to quantify health risks of exposure to indoor and outdoor PM2.5 from coal used in the power, industrial and residential sectors in China from 1974 to 2014. The researchers compiled data on coal consumption by power plants, industry, and rural and urban residences over the 40-year period. Using atmospheric chemical transport and statistical models, they calculated outdoor and indoor PM2.5 levels. Then, the team used exposure response functions -- mathematical relationships that calculate health effects resulting from specific exposures -- to estimate premature deaths caused by five diseases associated with PM2.5, including lung cancer and heart disease. From 1974 to 2014, the contribution of indoor residential coal use to overall PM2.5 exposure decreased in urban populations but remained steady in rural populations. The researchers calculated that in 2014, residential coal accounted for 2.9% of total energy use in China but 34% of premature deaths associated with PM2.5. The number of premature deaths caused by unit coal consumption in the residential sector was 40 times higher than that in the power and industrial sectors. These results indicate that efforts to reduce residential coal use should be a key focus of future air pollution mitigation actions in China, the researchers say. The authors acknowledge funding from the Chinese Academy of Sciences and the National Natural Science Foundation of China.
Ex-mine official says he was told to cheat coal dust rules -(AP) — Federal prosecutors ended their case against four former coal company executives on Monday after a former safety director testified about how he attempted to cheat underground mine safety rules. The four men on trial in federal court in Louisville are accused of ordering workers to skirt dust sampling regulations in two of Armstrong Coal’s underground mines. Ron Ivy, a former safety director at Armstrong’s Kronos mine, testified Monday that a senior-level Armstrong official, Glendal “Buddy” Hardison, told him and two other safety officials in 2013 that they had to make sure the mine’s dust pumps were reading at the desired range. The pumps are carried by underground workers and samples are taken from them to determine the amount of dust in the mines. Ivy said Hardison told him “the dust (reading) has got to come in and the (mine’s) production has to stay up.” Ivy testified earlier that the mine where he worked was filled with dusty air. Federal dust regulations in underground mines are meant to protect workers against dangerous levels of breathable dust, which can contribute to a deadly and incurable disease known as black lung. Ivy said to skirt the rules, he and other workers would place the pumps in cleaner parts of the mine to lower the dust readings. Ivy said of Hardison, who was in charge of all of Armstrong’s western Kentucky mines, “it was his mines, he ran them his way.” Ivy was originally charged with eight other defendants but reached a plea deal with prosecutors. Each of them were charged with conspiracy to defraud the U.S. government, a felony. Ivy pleaded guilty to a misdemeanor. Hardison’s attorney, Kent Wicker, asked Ivy if Hardison ever explicitly asked him to cheat the rules. Ivy said Hardison did not. “Make the dust (pumps) come in doesn’t necessarily mean to cheat, right?” Wicker said. Ivy testified that the mine didn’t have enough staff to comply with the dust rules and maintain desirable production levels. The trial is a rare prosecution of coal company officials on criminal charges. Federal regulators typically issue fines and shut down mines when they find safety violations, but in this case prosecutors allege that the men broke the law by conspiring to cheat the rules.
Memphis residents wage fight against TVA coal ash storage – Activist Justin J. Pearson had barely finished one environmental fight before he realized he needed to get involved in another. The Tennessee Valley Authority is preparing to store coal ash, a by-product of coal burning, in Southeast Memphis. And by the time TVA officials made the announcement, Pearson and other Memphis residents learned there’s little they can do about keeping coal ash, which can be toxic, out of South Memphis. The council had known of the pending environmental problem for several years. In 2017, during routine groundwater monitoring, TVA officials found elevated levels of arsenic and found out the cause was the nearby Allen Fossil Plant, a coal-burning facility. Beneath the area was the Memphis Sand Aquifer, from which drinking water is drawn for many of Shelby County’s residents. TVA officials had stored coal ash in the East Ash Impoundment that was now leaking and threatening to breach a shallow clay layer that provided minimal protections for the aquifer. The Allen plant was closed in 2018 as TVA officials worked to find a site to relocate approximately 2.7 million cubic yards of material. The Memphis City Council, Shelby County, Memphis Light, Gas and Water and the Memphis & Shelby County Port Commission all entered a memorandum of agreement with TVA, ceding all authority to them on the matter. Several years later in summer 2021, TVA officials informed city council that they had made their final decision. The agency had executed a public environmental review process over the last few years that identified a South Memphis facility, the South Shelby Landfill, that met all the requirements for safe, long-term storage of coal ash needed for approval by the Tennessee Department of Environment and Conservation (TDEC). Near the landfill is Whitehaven, a predominantly low-income Black neighborhood of about 72,000 residents. TVA officials worked to find a site to relocate approximately 2.7 million cubic yards of material. The Memphis City Council, Shelby County, Memphis Light, Gas and Water and the Memphis & Shelby County Port Commission all entered a memorandum of agreement with TVA, ceding all authority to them on the matter. Several years later in summer 2021, TVA officials informed city council that they had made their final decision. The agency had executed a public environmental review process over the last few years that identified a South Memphis facility, the South Shelby Landfill, that met all the requirements for safe, long-term storage of coal ash needed for approval by the Tennessee Department of Environment and Conservation (TDEC). Near the landfill is Whitehaven, a predominantly low-income Black neighborhood of about 72,000 residents. Memphis residents and city officials were shocked: They were informed of the final decision after TVA had already signed all the necessary paperwork. “It was an anonymous decision that didn’t allow any public input,” said Councilmember Dr. Jeff Warren. TVA held public meetings to inform local communities in September, but not much information was shared about the dangers of coal ash. Notably, a massive coal ash spill in Kingston, Tenn. in 2008, rendered nearby property uninhabitable. Many workers involved in the clean up process subsequently died of cancers attributed to the work with the coal ash.
Gas-fired power increased with nuclear plant closure; path to climate goals unclear - Despite a sharp rise in natural gas prices on year, gas burn for power generation is up significantly in New York, with nuclear power output down after the Indian Point facility permanently retired in April. The increased gas burn comes amid an aggressive decarbonization agenda that will effectively ban gas-fired power by 2040. With the 1,041-MW Indian Point Unit 3 permanently shutting down on April 30, the state is entering its first winter without power from the nuclear plant, which had provided roughly 25% of New York City's and Westchester County's electricity. The 1,299-MW Indian Point-2 nuclear reactor was deactivated on April 30, 2020 and Indian Point Unit 1 was shut down in October 1974. The plant is currently being decommissioned. When Unit 3 shut down in April, S&P Global Platts Analytics said that during periods of higher load, the nuclear generation would likely be replaced by gas-fired generation in the region and recent data shows that to be the case. Gas-fired generation averaged 72 GWh/d in the New York Independent System Operator footprint during the first half of November, up around 30% from the same time last year, generation data collected by Platts Analytics shows. The 18 GWh/d increase in gas-fired generation accounts for the bulk of the state's 26 GWh/d year-over-year decrease in nuclear generation, with stronger hydropower providing the rest. With alterative options for reliable baseload generation limited, gas-fired generation has been ramped up this autumn despite the headwinds of dramatically higher spot gas prices. Transco Zone 6, New York spot gas has averaged $4.69/MMBtu so far this month (Nov. 1-16), nearly quadruple the $1.30/MMBtu observed for the same time last year.
Flooding and Nuclear Waste Eat Away at a Tribe’s Ancestral Home - For decades, chronic flooding and nuclear waste have encroached on the ancestral lands in southeastern Minnesota that the Prairie Island Indian Community calls home, whittling them to about a third of their original size. Two years after the tribe received federal recognition in 1936, the Army Corps of Engineers installed a lock-and-dam system just to the south along the Mississippi River. It repeatedly flooded the tribe’s land, including burial mounds, leaving members with only 300 livable acres. Decades later, a stockpile of nuclear waste from a power plant next to the reservation, which the federal government reneged on a promise to remove in the 1990s, has tripled in size. It comes within 600 yards of some residents’ homes. With no room to develop more housing on the reservation, more than 150 tribal members who are eager to live in their ancestral home are on a waiting list. Cody Whitebear, 33, who serves as the tribe’s federal government relations specialist, is among those waiting. He hopes he can inherit his grandmother’s house, which is on the road closest to the power plant. “I never had the opportunity to live on the reservation, be part of the community,” said Mr. Whitebear, who began connecting with his heritage after the birth of his son, Cayden. “In my mid-20s I had the desire to learn about my people and who I am and who we are.” With no remedy in sight, the tribal community is asking Congress to put into trust about 1,200 acres of nearby land that it purchased near Pine Island, Minn., about 35 miles away, in 2018. That would allow the tribe to preserve its future by adding land farther away from the power plant to its reservation. In return, the tribe says it would give up the right to sue the government over flooding caused by the dam. Tribes exercise jurisdiction over land held in trust, including civil regulatory control. Certain federal laws and programs are intended to benefit tribal trust or reservation land. “Putting this land into trust for our tribe is crucial to righting the historical and current wrongs committed against our people,” said Shelley Buck, president of the Prairie Island Tribal Council. “The federal government put our tribe in this dangerous and untenable position, and it is the government’s responsibility to address the harm it has caused. The trust land would provide a safer alternative location for our members to live and work. The importance of that can’t be understated.” Interviews and documents obtained by The New York Times show how the state of Minnesota and the federal government ignored warnings about potential dangers posed to the tribe as they kept allowing the amount of waste stored on the reservation to expand and did little to address annual flooding that harms the tribe’s economy. “I mean, this is a classic environmental justice fact pattern,” said Heather Sibbison, chair of Dentons Native American law and policy practice at Dentons Law Firm. “We have a minority community, a disadvantaged community, bearing the brunt of two huge infrastructure projects that serve other people.”
Allen County quizzes trustees on wind, solar projects - — Now that local elected officials have a say about large wind and solar projects, Allen County asked township trustees for their thoughts. Allen County Commissioner Beth Seibert and Assistant Prosecutor Kayla Campbell met with township trustees across the county Tuesday to talk about renewable energy projects. The pair spoke extensively about Senate Bill 52, which became law last month, and what it means to Allen County. The new law allows elected county officials to prohibit specific wind and solar projects from going forward after they have been reviewed. It also allows the officials to designate areas that are off-limits to large wind and solar farms. Seibert said the commissioners have not yet decided as to whether they want to create a prohibition area. She said it is something they are looking into. “We feel we have an obligation to at least consider whether or not we are going to prohibit areas in Allen County, but the Board of Allen County Commissioners has not made a decision to create a prohibited area.” Locally, renewable energy has grabbed the attention of residents in Shawnee Township. A recent internal staff report from the Ohio Power Siting Board released its findings of the investigation of the Birch Solar I project, to potentially be located in Allen and Auglaize counties, and recommended to the board to not certify the project for approval. The project has been the subject of controversy since it was first introduced by LightsourceBP in late 2020, with residents raising concerns on everything from environmental impact to the project’s size and scope. OPSB found in its investigation the project would comply and fit within the area’s power grid, but it could not conclude that it would come without adverse environmental impact. More area officials have recently expressed their concerns to the OPSB about the project, including Ohio Senate President Matt Huffman. “Taking into account both the concerns raised by local officials and the outpouring of opposition from the general public, it is clear that Birch Solar 1 is not supported by many of those who would be most impacted by the project. I would like to add my name to this list, and express my opposition to this project,” Huffman wrote in a letter to the OPSB.
Lake Erie offshore windmill pilot project in jeopardy amid scandal fallout - Despite approval from a multitude of oversight agencies, a pilot offshore windmill project on Lake Erie is facing some strong headwinds the next few months amid the fallout of Ohio’s ongoing energy scandal.In the summer of 2009 — with the backing if the City of Cleveland, Cuyahoga and Lorain counties, the Cleveland Foundation and other influential public and private agencies — the Lake Erie Energy Development Corporation (LEEDCo) was formally started. The purpose was simple and basic: With energy production changing into more renewables and less dependent on old coal-fired power plants, LEEDCo was to develop a small windmill pilot program in Lake Erie called “Icebreaker.” The whole history of this pilot offshore windmill program is long and laborious in its hearings and special interests coming forward, but the latest problems are directly connected with the ongoing investigation over energy company FirstEnergy and the HB 6 bill corruption scandal in the Ohio state legislature.What is relative to the Icebreaker project’s status involves Sam Randazzo, the energy lobbyist who Gov. Mike DeWine appointed in February 2019 as the state’s top regulator at the Public Utilities Commission of Ohio (PUCO). According to court documents in the case, Randazzo had received $22 million from FirstEnergy Corp. in the decade before his appointment as a lobbyist — including $4.3 million paid just before assuming the post.What Randazzo did a year later involving Icebreaker was quite questionable when he chaired the Ohio Power Siting Board (OPSB), a powerful group under PUCO which oversees locations and regulations of any and all energy infrastructure. The OPSB ruled in May of 2020 that the Icebreaker project could only move forward if its blades were turned off every night for eight months of the year. The reason? Randazzo enacted this action, which some have called a poison pill, because he claimed the eight windmills would kill too many birds and bats. But there was no proof it would. A study that was required of LEEDCo found there might be 21-42 birds and 21-83 bats put at risk by the 21-megawatt wind farm that would produce enough electricity to power about 7,000 homes.An ornithologist, Caleb Gordon, who prepared the bird and bat study for a LEEDCo, had called it “the lowest risk project” he ever studied.By contrast, numerous studies demonstrate that far more bird deaths are caused by collisions with buildings (676 million), vehicles (214 million), and power lines (32 million) i n the United States. The U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service estimates that somewhere between 140,000 and 500,000 bird deaths occur at wind farms each year in the U.S. , all of them on land. After more than a decade of hard work, the Icebreaker project is now in flux. Two intervenors from Bratenahl, Ohio, a suburb east of downtown Cleveland, has filed protests over the windmill project because they thought the project would hurt birds and fishing in the lake, and the eight-mile distant windmills would also allegedly disturb their view from their balconies at their high-rise condos. The Randazzo ruling and subsequent flip has opened up the courts to decide the fate of this protest.
Paying Bribes Got FirstEnergy In Trouble, But It Is Still Making Political Donations — And Amends -- Has FirstEnergy Corp. learned anything from its nuclear energy scandal and criminal probe? Prosecutors say that if the company fully cooperates then it will drop the charges against it in three years. But the utility is still giving millions to lobby lawmakers — a bit cringeworthy, given the events. It’s legal. But the company’s chief executive since March, Steven Strah, has said that FirstEnergy FE -1.3% will play a more subtle political role. The protocol now is strict oversight of its lobbying activities — the kind of thing that would avoid, for example, bribing public officials to keep open struggling nuclear plants. For sure, FirstEnergy’s campaign spending is already at $1.5 million this year. That is in line with the contributions it has been making for the last decade. FirstEnergy is sticking to “the way they did business 50 years ago,“ said Ashley Brown, a former Ohio public utilities commissioner, who now leads the Harvard Electricity Policy Group. “That’s part of why they’re just a lobbying firm with a utility sideline.” Brown’s comments appeared in a story by Eye on Ohio, which joined with Energy News Network in the endeavor. Eye on Ohio is a division of the Ohio Center for Journalism. In a deferred prosecution agreement reached over the summer between FirstEnergy and federal prosecutors, the utility admitted that it conspired with and subsequently bribed public officials: $60 million, which was used to secure a $1.3 billion bailout package for its nuclear units and to also help defeat a voter initiative that would have thrown out that law. The company was penalized $230 million — money to be split equally between the federal and state government. In Ohio, it will be used to help low-income citizens pay their utility bills. It is the largest fine ever imposed by the U.S. Attorney’s Office for the Southern District of Ohio. But it is a pittance when compared to the earnings it brought in last year: $1.1 billion. For that reason, the company’s stock has a 52-week range of between $26 and its current high of $39 a share. Prosecutors said that they wanted the penalty to “sting” but they did not want to disrupt the company’s business. They filed one charge: conspiracy to commit honest services and wire fraud, which will be dismissed if FirstEnergy continues to cooperate. “Our activity in this space will be much more limited than it has been in the past, with closer alignment to our strategic goals and with additional oversight and significantly more robust disclosure,” says CEO Strah, before investors. “These efforts, together with enhanced policies and procedures, will help to bring additional clarity around appropriate behaviors at FirstEnergy.”
Bankruptcy Court OKs Legal Fees of $65 Million in FES Case | RTO Insider - A federal judge in Ohio approved of legal fees of more than $65 million and expenses totaling $2.7 million in the FirstEnergy Solutions bankruptcy case.
Who knew about bribes paid during FirstEnergy Solutions' bankruptcy? --FirstEnergy Solutions’ management, board, and some top consultants for the utility and its creditors knew about plans to spend over $40 million on political contributions during the company’s Chapter 11 bankruptcy, according to court filings and statements by a major lobbying and law firm that represented the utility. The money would later be deemed by federal prosecutors to be part of a nearly $60 million bribery scheme that resulted in House Bill 6, the 2019 Ohio law that provided a since-repealed $1 billion ratepayer bailout that benefited several nuclear and coal-fired power plants owned by FirstEnergy Solutions (FES). The law also included other provisions that financially benefited FirstEnergy Corp., which at the time was still the parent company of FES. FirstEnergy Corp reached an agreement this summer with federal prosecutors that attributed the lion’s share of the bribe payments, just over $43 million, to its former subsidiary FES, which emerged from bankruptcy in February 2020 as a separate company called Energy Harbor.Energy Harbor was subpoenaed last year in connection with the H.B. 6 bribery investigation, and in September turned over 6,000 records to prosecutors. In July of 2020, U.S. Bankruptcy Judge Alan Koschik was prepared to grant final approval for the fees and expenses of a number of outside firms involved in the FES restructuring. The arrest of Larry Householder, the now-indicted former speaker of the Ohio House, in connection with the H.B. 6 bribery scheme led Koschik to hit the brakes on the process. The judge has since granted final approval for the fees and expenses of most of the financial and law firms that worked on the case, with one key exception that Koschik addressed at a hearing today.Koschik ruled today that he will grant final approval for the over $68 million in fees and expenses that FES racked up with Akin Gump Strauss Hauer & Feld LLP. Akin Gump served as co-counsel to the FES debtors during the company’s nearly two-year restructuring, and also lobbied for H.B. 6 and other state and federal bailout proposals on behalf of the utility. In an October 12, 2021 letter to Koschik and statements made during a bankruptcy court hearing later last month, Akin Gump partner Abid Qureshi revealed that multiple members of the firm knew in 2018 and 2019 about plans for FES to contribute money to Generation Now Inc., a 501(c)(4) group associated with Householder. Generation Now pleaded guilty earlier this year to racketeering in connection with the H.B. 6 bribery scheme. Qureshi’s letter to the court said that several restructuring and corporate lawyers for Akin Gump attended meetings on May 28 and August 7 of 2019 where FES’s board approved of two resolutions drafted by Akin Gump corporate lawyers authorizing up to $40 million in total contributions to Generation Now. The letter from Qureshi also revealed that others involved in the bankruptcy case were informed of the planned expenditures at a second August 7, 2019 meeting (emphasis added):
Drinking water not impacted by migrating injection well waste: report - A study released by the Ohio Department of Natural Resources found that oil and gas production waste from an injection well in Washington County did not impact drinking water in the area. Brine from the Redbird #4 injection well in Dunham Township migrated out of its injection zone in 2019 and into several nearby oil and gas production wells, according to an earlier ODNR report. That brine did not [YET] affect the private drinking water wells tested, according to results from a follow-up report that was published earlier this summer.The ODNR’s Division of Oil and Gas commissioned an independent investigation to verify the brine had not migrated from the Berea Sandstone into shallower drinking water aquifers. The report, put together by Groundwater and Environmental Services, noted that no residents complained about water quality issues in the area.GES identified 596 parcels and 48 private water wells within a half mile radius of the impacted wells. Of those, 16 were reported as no longer present by landowners, four landowners declined sampling and landowners for 24 wells did not respond to requests for contact and sampling by GES.A total of nine wells were sampled and analyzed, including five that were not identified in the original survey.One sample had a chloride concentration above the EPA maximum level of 250 milligrams per liter along with measurable bromide. The report notes that “chloride does occur naturally in groundwater and concentrations can vary depending on the soil and/or bedrock matrix the groundwater moves through.” This sample came from a 60-foot deep well about 8,100 feet northeast of the injection well. Chloride can also come from a number of other sources, including sewage effluent, irrigation drainage, animal manure and fertilizer, the report said. GES concluded the elevated chloride in the sample was not caused by the brine from the Redbird #4 well.
Round One Of Court Battle Between ODA/Columbia Gas and the Renner/Bailey Trust - The opening arguments in legal the battle featuring Columbus Gas and the Ohio Department of Agriculture against the Arno Renner/Bailey Trust got underway Wednesday morning in the Union County Court of Common Pleas, with visiting Judge Mark S. O’Connor presiding over the civil proceedings. At issue is approximately one-half mile of is what is known as the Marysville Connector of the Northern Loop, a pipeline which Columbia Gas intends to build that will encircle and serve the Columbus-metro area, as well as Union County and surrounding areas. But the pipeline, as presented to the State of Ohio by Columbus Gas, will run for approximately one-half mile directly through the Arno Renner Trust, approximately 230 acres of land on two properties along Industrial Parkway in southeast Union County. Mr. Renner, before his death, asked for and received the Agricultural Easement Donation Program for the two properties from the Ohio Department of Agriculture (ODA) in 2003, with the clear stipulation that the two adjoining properties in question be “forever” protected by the state and the ODA from any kind of construction or improvements that would remove any of the its land out of agricultural use. The Northern Loop pipeline, if allowed to be constructed as it is currently planned, would effectively bisect the parcels through the Ag Easement and grant Columbus Gas an easement between the two properties for construction, repair and updates of the pipeline in direct violation of the agreement between the ODA and the Renner/Bailey Trust, of which Don Bailey, Mr. Renner’s nephew, is now trustee. Columbia Gas has filed a request with the court to nullify at least part of the Ag Easement agreement between the ODA and the Renner/Bailey Trust for the construction of the gas pipeline through the protected properties in question. Mr. Bailey has also filed motions with the court, first asking for a writ of mandamus which would require Dorothy Pelanda, in her position as the Director of the Ohio Department of Agriculture, to enforce the Ag Easement between the State of Ohio and the Renner/Bailey Trust as written by disallowing Columbus Gas to build the pipeline through the protected properties. Director Pelanda, a Union County resident, who as director of the ODA is also a member of the Ohio Power Siting Board (OPSB), has refused to honor the Ag Easement and voted to side with Columbia Gas to ignore agreement, both in her position as the director of the ODA and as member of the OPSB. The OPSB’s vote to allow the pipeline construction through the Renner/Bailey Trust was unanimous.
EnerVest Utica Shops 340K Acres of ORRI in Ohio Utica Shale | Marcellus Drilling News - EV Royalty Partners, an affiliate of EnerVest Ltd., has retained Oil & Gas Asset Clearinghouse for the sale of a Utica Shale overriding royalty interest (ORRI) package across multiple counties in Ohio. The package on offer includes portions of ORRI in some 340,894 acres. The acreage is actively leased and developed by Encino Energy, Ascent Resources, and Southwestern Energy. Bids are due by Dec. 2nd.EnerVest is a private equity firm that owns a lot of acreage and wells in the Marcellus/Utica region. EnerVest has long held over 1 million acres of leases in Ohio–most of it for conventional oil and gas wells. EnerVest tried to sell large chunks of its acreage for years, going back to 2012 (see EnerVest Puts 539,000 Utica Shale Acres on Auction Block). In 2017 EnerVest shopped 361,000 acres and 1,100 wells in the Appalachian region (see EnerVest Selling 1,100 Wells, 361K Acres in Appalachia). In June 2020 EnerVest used EnergyNet to auction off 58,000 Utica acres (see EnerVest Auctioning 58K Utica Leased Acres in Ohio & Pennsylvania). In September of this year, EnerVest auctioned a package of 146,053 acres of leases for non-operated and ORRI in the Utica Shale scattered across Ohio and Pennsylvania (seeEnerVest Shopping 146K Acres of Non-Op & ORRI Assets in OH-PA Utica).We don’t know how much (if any) of those assets EnerVest ended up selling, but we do know as of July 2019 the company still owned 1.1 million acres of leases in Ohio (see EnerVest Still Owns 7K Wells, 1.1 Million Acres in Ohio).Here is the latest auction of Utica Shale assets from EnerVest: Asset Overview:
- Assets include an aggregate 60.88% of a ~7.5% ORRI in ~340,894 acres
- The remaining limited partner of EVRP has a tag right on the sale of the LP interests
- 0.723% average ORRI in 139 Utica wells
- 1,146 Mcfe/d (51% gas / 32% NGL / 17% oil)
- Net PDP reserves: 4,086 MMcfe
- Primarily operated by Encino Energy, Ascent Resources and Eclipse Resources (Montage Resources, which was acquired by Southwestern Energy in 2020)
Verde Bio Holdings, Inc. Announces Bolt-on Acquisition in the Utica Shale of Eastern Ohio -- Verde Bio Holdings, Inc., a growing oil and gas Company, today announced that it continues to execute on its business plans of acquiring a portfolio of revenue producing properties by agreeing to the purchase of mineral and royalty interests held by a private seller for a purchase price of $175,000 in cash, subject to price adjustments pending due diligence. The interests to be acquired are located in Belmont County, Ohio, and are operated by Ascent Resources, which holds more than 335,000 net leasehold acres in the region, and has established itself as the premier operator in the southern Utica Shale. Ascent currently has four rigs running in the area and has recently filed an intent to drill another well on the interest being acquired. The bolt-on interests currently produce combined revenue of approximately $3,000 per month and Verde is entitled to the cash flow from production attributable to the acquisition beginning on or after November 1, 2021.The acquisition is expected to close on or before November 30, 2021. . Scott Cox, CEO of Verde, said, “We are currently very bullish on natural gas and this bolt-on acquisition adds to our existing portfolio of great assets in the Utica Shale. We are proud to have built a Company which is creative and flexible enough to take advantage of these deals as they come to market.” “Deals like this continue to highlight our business plan of acquiring minerals and royalties and building a diversified, revenue-producing portfolio. … Through our balanced approach of capital raising and acquisitions, we are building a dynamic Company with significant revenue and assets and look forward to continuing to build on this through future strategic acquisitions,” Mr. Cox concluded.
Biden Administration no longer supports Michigan Governor's wish to shutdown Line 5 Pipeline – The Oil and Gas pipeline from Michigan to Canada could still go away for good. The Biden Administration has announced it’s not supporting the closure for now, but the Michigan Governor is still pushing for it. Enbridge Energy’s Line 5 oil and gas pipeline has carried Canadian oil into Michigan for nearly 70 years, but that might go away for good. And not everyone is happy with this. “That is a big concern for the Ohio Oil and Gas association.” Mike Chadsey The Ohio Oil and Gas Association isn’t the only one defending the pipeline. So is the Biden Administration. Meanwhile, Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer still pushes for the line’s shutdown over environmental concerns. But Ohio Oil and Gas Association’s Mike Chadsey believes there are even bigger concerns on the horizon. “We are very fearful of the effects it’s gonna have on consumers. The US is the world’s largest producer of oil and natural gas. If you shutdown line-5, you’re talking about pipeline shortages in oil and natural gas.” - Ohio Oil and Gas Association He adds that could crank up propane prices. “Particularly, as the cold weather sets in… many residents use it for home heating, and a few bucks or more increase in propane costs would really hurt those customers.” Ohio Oil and Gas Association Mike Chadsey Meanwhile, others continue to fight for the pipeline: Enbridge has sued to keep it open. Canada has invoked clauses of the 1977 Treaty that deals with pipelines that cross the US-Canada border. But the future of the pipeline remains unclear. “It could be shutdown fairly quickly, which is where our concern is. And so, that’s what our message is ‘do not shut this pipeline down. Do not cause shortages, and do not raise prices to the folks that are out of Wheeling for price increases’.”Ohio Oil and Gas Association’s Mike Chadsey
The new steel? Hope and fear as a new plastics factory rises in Appalachia — Back in the 1970s, more than 60 percent of the workforce in Beaver County was tied to steel, and Aliquippa was the industry's beating heart. Its streets were lined with tidy houses and busy shops, and when the day shift ended, its bars were packed full of steelworkers with flush pockets. Today, just a 10-minute drive away, a new industry is rising from the banks of the Ohio River: Royal Dutch Shell's multibillion-dollar ethane "cracker," an industrial complex that heats ethane, a component of natural gas, and "cracks" it into ethylene, a building block for plastic. When it launches next year, the Pennsylvania Petrochemicals Complex will make 1.6 million metric tons a year of what many say the world needs less of: the plastic pellets that will become plastic products, from sports gear to shrink wrap.It will also be Appalachia's first ethane cracker. Far from the petrochemical manufacturing facilities that line the Gulf Coast, the region where coal and steel once reigned is perhaps an unlikely home for the cracker. But in recent years, states have offered more than $1 billion in economic incentives to lure plastic projects to a region where hydraulic fracturing — "fracking" — has produced an abundance of cheap natural gas. In 2012, Pennsylvania's leaders bet big on Shell by authorizing a tax credit worth about $1.65 billion for ethylene projects.The tax credit was a sign to industry that "the public sector was able to be a good partner," said Mark Thomas, the president of the Pittsburgh Regional Alliance, a nonprofit economic development group. Shell's cracker, he said, is a "long-term play" that many hope will spark more regional growth.Curtis Smith, a Shell spokesperson, wrote in a statement, "The economic multiplier associated with these employment and contracting opportunities will be apparent for decades."But others, including some residents and advocates, fear that amid the climate crisis and a global plastics glut, such projects aren't just risky investments, but also the wrong choice for a region still struggling to rebound from the toxic legacy of its industrial past."We've seen this for generations," said Rob Altenburg, the director of the Energy Center at PennFuture, an environmental advocacy group. "They come in, they take profits, the industry goes away, and it leaves Pennsylvania taxpayers holding the bag for not only the economic impacts of this, but also the public health impacts."We're doing the same thing with Shell, ignoring the carbon pollution that they're putting out and effectively giving them money to pollute," he added. Pennsylvania's tax credit for ethylene manufacturing projects was a "key factor" in Shell's decision to build the cracker, said Smith, the Shell spokesperson.Both states and the federal government regularly provide direct and indirect subsidies to fossil fuel and petrochemical companies through tax abatements, loans, training programs and other incentives. In the U.S., conservative estimates put direct subsidies to the fossil fuel industry at about $20 billion a year, with about 80 percent going to natural gas and crude oil. The package Pennsylvania gave to Shell, however, is the largest tax credit offered to a single company in the state's history. The 25-year tax break is worth about $66 million annually.
Poor Economics for Virgin Plastics: Petrochemicals Will Not Provide Sustainable Business Opportunities in Appalachia – Ohio River Valley Institute - The Appalachian petrochemical buildout is on shaky ground. Despite speculation that supply chain constraints, COVID-induced shortages of key products, and volatile energy prices could “re-shore” virgin plastics production in the Ohio Valley, a concurrence of factors casts a dark shadow over the financial outlook of regional petrochemical development. A new report from the Ohio River Valley Institute outlines the market forces likely to impede new petrochemical capacity in Appalachia:
- Environmental concerns are curtailing demand for petrochemical products. Consumers’ and investors’ increased focus on the plastics pollution crisis is changing assumptions about demand growth for polyethylene (PE), the primary product of prospective Appalachian petrochemical plants.
- Under pressure, major petrochemical producers have pledged to reduce carbon emissions, shifting cost assumptions and siting decisions. Technological innovations, such as carbon capture, use, and sequestration (CCUS) and advances in ‘green’ and ‘blue’ hydrogen, are an as yet unproven and still cost-prohibitive means of decarbonization for chemical facilities in the US.
- The Appalachian feedstock pool is limited. A tighter US ethane market and producers’ ability to access export markets via expanded capacity at Marcus Hook will likely push regional ethane prices too high to allow new ethane cracker facilities to be competitive.
- Market shifts in China and across Asia will undercut U.S. cost margins. Once the primary importer of U.S. ethylene, China is now leveraging tariffs and racing toward supply self-sufficiency. Accelerating overseas capacity additions and lower-than-expected Asian import demand could create a significant overhang of U.S. capacity.
Prospective investors have hesitated to fund major new projects because building out more ethylene production in Appalachia may result in stranded assets. And, even if such projects go forward, they are not likely to produce the economic benefits once predicted by industry supporters and hoped for by local communities. For these reasons, the region’s business leaders and policymakers would be wise to shift their focus from virgin plastics production to other strategies for economic development. Click here to view and download the full report.
How the Oil and Gas Industry Has Broken Climate Education - The phenomenon of fossil fuel companies plying schoolchildren with their messages is decades old. The American Petroleum Institute was making the case for marketing to children as early as the 1940s, according to archives reviewed by the Center for Public Integrity. A survey of 10,000 Americans had indicated the industry’s reputation could use some rehabilitation, and a “well-directed program of public education” could help. To that end, API teamed up with DuPont and by 1954 had trained 600 oil industry workers to give a show-and-tell program called “The Magic Barrel” to schoolchildren. In 1972, General Motors published a booklet to counteract what its pollsters said were children’s “negative” attitudes toward auto companies. The booklet featured cartoon characters “Charlie Carbon Monoxide” and “Harry Hydrocarbon” (a “harmless demon”) who helped dispel fears that air pollution could lead to serious health hazards. By the next June, the company had distributed 2.1 million copies of the booklet, including to 62,000 elementary-school principals. In the midst of the 1970s oil crisis, Exxon’s public affairs department partnered with Walt Disney Educational Media Co. on comic books about energy conservation. In one, Mickey Mouse and Goofy Explore Energy, the pair get in trouble when their car runs out of gas on a fishing trip. On their walk to the service station, they learn about supply and demand from a smiling nuclear symbol called “Enny, the spirit of energy!” Another comic book was included as an insert in a 1978 issue of the National Education Association’s journal, which reached 1 million teachers. Much more strident commentary on the crisis came from the petroleum company Amoco (later merged with BP). It produced a 26-minute film titled The Kingdom of Mocha, ostensibly to introduce students to economic concepts. In it, the primitive “Mochans,” led by a chief called “Big Daddy,” become dependent on an energy source—wood. When a war cuts off trade, Big Daddy responds by threatening to impose price controls or even to take over the wood industry, which viewers learn could prove calamitous. The parable—in addition to being flagrantly racist—executed a trenchant attack on 1970s-era U.S. energy policy. Amoco claimed that more than 20 million schoolchildren watched it. Today, fossil fuel–funded educational programs aimed at children are abundant. A nonexhaustive search found such programs in Alaska, Arizona, California, Colorado, Florida, Illinois, Kansas, Kentucky, Michigan, Montana, Nevada, New Mexico, New York, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, South Carolina, Texas, Utah, Virginia, West Virginia, Wisconsin, and, of course, Arkansas. Not all have Paige Millers traveling classroom to classroom. More common are free curricula, sponsored activities, and scholarships. Some promote safety: The Missouri-based utility Evergy, for instance, created an online game to teach students to recognize electrical dangers. Industry education programs in Kansas, Ohio, Illinois, and Oklahoma are actually supported and sanctioned by those states’ governments. The most sophisticated is the Oklahoma Energy Resources Board, a “privatized state agency” voluntarily funded by oil and gas companies. The OERB has produced a series of videos by “Professor Leo,” a goofy Bill Nye knockoff who educates students about the state’s oil and gas resources. Teachers can ask for “Petro Pros” to come speak to their classes, or tap into a library of glossy lesson plans ready-made for any age or subject.
Abandoned gas wells creating legacy of challenges, concerns - The state Department of Environmental Protection lists about 8,700 abandoned or orphaned natural gas wells on its database. That figure, however, is likely a tiny fraction of the true number of these potential hazards that exist statewide. Hundreds of thousands of wells have been drilled in Pennsylvania since 1859, when Edwin Drake launched the nation’s first commercial oil well outside Titusville. Many were built without oversight, until permitting requirements were enacted in 1955. Some have been abandoned by companies that did not cap them properly – if at all – before filing for bankruptcy protection or moving to another state. Emissions of methane, a noxious greenhouse gas, are proving to be a ongoing legacy of some of these sites. “There are a lot of challenges with legacy wells,” said Seth Pelepko, a DEP official, who was the featured speaker of a recent virtual webinar presented by Washington & Jefferson College’s Center for Energy Policy and Management. The manager of DEP’s Bureau of Oil and Gas Planning and Program Management spoke for more than an hour about the overwhelming prevalence of legacy wells statewide, the cost of properly plugging them and environmental issues they present. “Operators have placed wells in almost every conceivable place, which presents great challenges for us,” he said Plugging is not a cost-effective endeavor, to be sure. The price of sealing just one well is about $33,000, making DEP liable from $280 million to several billion. A state surcharge on drilling permits helps to fund this capping, and requires a bond, but more money is needed to remediate this issue. Pennsylvania, Pelepko pointed out, could benefit from grant money and an outlay from the federal infrastructure deal that is awaiting President Joe Biden’s signature, and includes funding for environmental matters.
$1 million settlement approved in 2018 pipeline failure in Beaver County -The Pennsylvania Public Utility Commission on Thursday approved a $1 million settlement related to a massive failure of the Revolution pipeline that occurred in September 2018 in Beaver County.On Sept. 10, 2018, a pipeline failure occurred near Ivy Lane in Center Township, releasing more than 3 million cubic feet of natural gas and destroying a single-family home on the street.No one was injured, and the home’s occupants evacuated before the subsequent fire reached their home.During heavy rain in the wake of Tropical Storm Gordon in the fall of 2018, a landslide occurred that caused a section of the pipe to separate.The settlement resolves an investigation conducted by the PUC’s Independent Bureau of Investigation and Enforcement, and comes on the heels of a review of comments from state lawmakers, advocates, local governments and others.The settlement includes:
- • A $1 million civil penalty, paid by pipeline owners Energy Transfer to the state within 30 days.
- • $975,000 in additional safety measures including added pipeline start-up procedures, in-line inspections prior to the start-up date for new sections of pipeline.
- • Multiple annual in-line inspections to verify the line’s integrity.
- • Immediate notice to the PUC of any slope failure that could affect pipeline integrity.
- • Implementation of a quality assurance program to oversee pipeline siting and construction practices.
Hearing Underway On Cleanup Of June 2019 Philadelphia Energy Solutions Refinery Explosion – CBS Philly -A public hearing is underway on the cleanup from a June 2019 refinery explosion in South Philadelphia. That hearing, involving members of the Pennsylvania state senate, is taking place at the University of The Sciences. Lawmakers and experts there are discussing remediation efforts at the site of the former Philadelphia Energy Solutions refinery. The major explosion injured multiple people. At the time, the complex produced 335,000 barrels of crude oil daily. The oil refining complex was the largest on the U.S. Eastern Seaboard. The site’s new owner, Hilco Redevelopment Partners, announced plans to turn the area into an employment hub generating 19-thousand jobs.
Philly suburb appeals ruling on gas pipeline records (AP) — A Philadelphia suburb is fighting a court order to release communications between municipal officials and the developer of a natural gas pipeline that was recently charged with environmental crimes related to the pipeline’s construction.Middletown Township has been refusing to produce the records for nearly a year, asserting they were exempt from disclosure under the state’s open records law. Energy Transfer, the owner of the multi-billion-dollar Mariner East pipeline system, also opposed their release.A Delaware County judge ruled last month that the records are public, and ordered the township to turn them over to the owners of a 124-unit apartment complex along the pipeline route. Middletown Township on Friday appealed the judge’s ruling to Commonwealth Court, days after a similar appeal by Energy Transfer. The township says the records contain sensitive and confidential information the township obtained from Energy Transfer during its investigation of sinkholes near the pipeline. The owners of Glen Riddle Station Apartments, who have been seeking the records, say pipeline construction has threatened the health and safety of the residents. The pipeline’s route splits the apartment complex in half.Energy Transfer was recently charged with 48 criminal counts related to Mariner East construction, most of them for illegally releasing industrial waste at 22 sites in 11 counties across the state. A grand jury report cites numerous spills of drilling fluid at the construction site at Glen Riddle.Energy Transfer subsidiary Sunoco Pipeline LP has been installing two new pipelines to take natural gas liquids from the Marcellus Shale gas field in western Pennsylvania to an export terminal near Philadelphia.
Sunoco Pipeline L.P. to enhance public safety in Mariner East Pipeline construction After a vote by The Pennsylvania Public Utility Commissions (PUC) on Nov. 18, Sunoco Pipeline L.P. must take action in protecting public safety in connection with the construction and operation of the Mariner East Pipelines.In a case involving complaints against Sunoco Pipeline L.P. from almost a dozen of individuals and organizations from southeastern Pa., the commission voted 3-0 to approve an initial decision that was issued by a PUC Administrative Law judge. Actions that Sunoco Pipeline must take to enhance public safety in the construction and operation of the Mariner East Pipeline includes:
- A comprehensive review of Sunoco’s public awareness program.
- A written plan to enhance Sunoco’s public awareness and emergency notification plans.
- Enhancements to public awareness safety materials for residents and emergency responders in Delaware and Chester Counties.
- Supplements to Sunoco’s emergency contact list for Delaware and Chester Counties, including police departments of municipalities and designees of school districts.
- Advance notification by Sunoco prior to proposed excavation on the pipeline system in all municipalities of Delaware and Chester Counties.
- Scheduling by Sunoco of public awareness/education meetings to be held in the West Chester Area School District, Twin Valley School District, Downingtown Area School District, and Rose Tree Media School District.
- Arrangements by Sunoco for meetings with the Chester County Commissioners, Delaware County Commissioners, and all municipalities’ supervisors therein, to establish emergency contact list information; assist with the establishment of emergency plans for first responders;
- Establishment of times and dates for follow-up meetings and periodic meeting schedules as mutually agreeable between municipalities, counties and Sunoco Pipeline.
- Additional training by Sunoco regarding emergency notification procedures, as reasonably requested by municipalities and school districts.
- A “depth of cover” and “distance between other underground pipelines/structures” survey regarding Mariner East 1 and the 12-inch workaround pipelines as long as they are purposed for carrying highly volatile liquids.
- Sunoco shall file a report with the Commission certifying whether Mariner East 1 and the 12-inch workaround pipelines that are transporting highly volatile liquids within Chester and Delaware Counties are buried so that they are below the level of cultivation and so the cover between top of pipe and ground level, road bed, river bottom or underwater natural bottom is in compliance with minimum regulatory requirements and the distance between pipeline exteriors and the exteriors of other underground pipelines/utility structures are at least twelve inches apart unless adequate corrosive control action can be shown – along with a corrective action plan for area areas requiring remediation – to be filed annually for three years.
- A $2,000 civil penalty, payable to “Commonwealth of Pennsylvania,” to be paid within 30 days of the date of entry for the Final Order in this case.
- Other issues that were raised in the complaints referred to the PUC’s ongoing rule relating to pipeline transport of petroleum products and hazardous liquids in intrastate commerce.
Well pad would be a disaster for Weirton -- Randi Pokladnik - Truck traffic, volatile organic air emissions and water contamination are just some of the dangerous issues associated with high-pressure hydraulic fracking. Considering the placement of a well pad in Weirton is asking for trouble. Fracking requires water, sand and chemicals. The U.S. EPA and Department of Energy said that an average of 7 million gallons of fluid are used for each well. If 1 percent are chemical additives, that means upward of more than 70,000 gallons of chemicals including biocides, surfactants, and anti-corrosive agents are required for each well and will be stored on site. Additionally, a study by Yale Public Health found that of these hundreds of chemicals, more than 80 percent have never been reviewed by the International Agency for Research on Cancer. Of the 119 that have been reviewed by IARC, 55 were found to be carcinogenic. Among the chemicals most frequently used in fracking, 24 are known to block the hormone receptors in humans, according to a 2017 study published in Science Direct. Fracking has contaminated water wells and a 2020 article in the Journal of Petroleum Technology stated “wellbore integrity cannot be taken for granted.” The XTO Energy well blowout in Belmont County in February 2018 was from a “failure of the gas well’s casing or internal lining.” This blowout released the equivalent of an entire year’s worth of methane by oil and gas industries in countries like France. The waste water left over after a well is fracked is known as produced water. In addition to brine, which is a result of the prehistoric conditions which formed the oil and gas reserves, the waste contains radioactive materials (Radium -226 and Radium-228) and any chemicals initially injected with the fluid. In 1978, the EPA exempted oil and gas wastes from exploration and production activities from the hazardous waste management program Subtitle C of the Resource Conservation and Recovery Act. This includes produced water, drilling fluids and drill cuttings. Yet, in 2002 the EPA admitted that just because the wastes were exempt this did not mean that wastes could not present a hazard to human health and the environment. The oil and gas industries also are exempt or excluded from certain sections of these federal environmental laws: Clean Air Act, Clean Water Act, Safe Drinking Water Act, National Environmental Policy Act and Emergency Planning and Community Right-to Know Act. Siting a well pad in the middle of a heavily populated area as proposed in Weirton would be a disaster. Weirton residents should not be the sacrifice community for the oil and gas industry.
New laws signed by Gov. Hochul will phase out dirty fuel oil and paving materials – Gov. Kathy Hochul signed two new laws that will phase out the use of grade-6 fuel oil and coal tar paving materials — two substances that contribute to air, soil and water pollution in New York.The first bill (S.2936-a/A.5029-a) was sponsored by Sen. Todd Kaminsky, D-Long Beach, and Assemblywoman Amy Paulin, D-Scarsdale. This bill phases out the use of grade 6 oil fuel for heating buildings in New York state, starting July 1, 2023. The second bill (S.4095-b/A.518-a), sponsored by Sen. James Sanders Jr., D-Queens, and Assemblywoman Linda Rosenthal, D-Manhattan, prohibits the use and sale of pavement materials that contain coal tar.“The harmful effects of climate change and pollution have only heightened the importance of protecting the well-being of New Yorkers and the preservation of our state’s environment,” Governor Hochul said. “This legislation takes important steps to ensure that New Yorkers have access to clean water and a breathable environment free of harmful pollutants.” Grade 6 oil refers to a highly viscous oil that’s left over from the production of crude oil. This grade of oil — used mostly in large commercial applications under burn permits that are grandfathered in — is cheap but also dirty and among the most harmful to the environment. It has been phased out in New York City completely, with 5,300 buildings using grade 6 oil fueltransitioning into a more environmentally-friendly fuel in 2016.When combusted, it creates soot: incompletely combusted hydrocarbon particles that contain polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons, or PAHs, alongside other contaminants that contribute air pollution and harm respiratory health.PAHs are a class of chemicals that naturally occur in fuels such as gasoline, crude oil, and coal. When these materials, as well as garbage, wood or tobacco are combusted, they release PAHs that can bind into small particulates in the air. The contaminants that come from the combustion of oil fuel are both carcinogenic and harmful to people’s respiratory systems. Alongside PAHs, grade 6 oil fuel contains “heavy metals, nitric oxide, sulfur dioxide, nickel, and black carbon,” that contribute to soot’s makeup.According to the Governor’s Office and the bill sponsors, there are alternative energy sources for building heating that are not only less harmful to the environment but also cost less. Because of this, the use of grade 6 oil fuel will be prohibited starting July 1, 2023.“This legislation takes aim at one of the prime causes of climate change and extreme weather: air pollution,” said Paulin, the Assembly sponsor of the bill.” Fuel oil grade number 6 releases extremely harmful pollutants into our air. The second bill focuses on coal tar-based pavement sealants, materials used for paving roads that contain benzo(a)pyrene alongside other harmful PAHs that have been classified by the Environmental Protection Agency as carcinogenic, “particularly in children” as well as harmful to wildlife.
Providence Moves Closer to LPG Expansion Limits — “I care deeply about the whole issue of reducing fossil fuels … and my favorite thing about this meeting was that it was standing-room only,” Providence resident Marcia Taylor said. “The public is here to say no to fossil fuel expansion here in the city of Providence and in the state of Rhode Island.”Taylor wasn’t standing long — barely 15 minutes — before the City Council committee echoed public dissent.After hearing hours of public comment nearly two weeks ago, the Committee on Ordinances moved swiftly and unanimously on Nov. 15 to pass a resolution and ordinance that could significantly limit the expansion of liquid propane gas, also called liquefied petroleum gas, (LPG) storage in the Port of Providence. Both items will move to the City Council, seeking approval twice over before potentially being signed into law by Mayor Jorge Elorza Ordinance 32292 would amend Chapter 27 of the Providence Code of Ordinances to prohibit the bulk storage of LPG in all city districts. The city code currently prohibits the bulk storage of liquefied natural gas in all districts. Extending the ban to include the bulk storage of LPG would further protect the environment and the people of Providence, City Council member Pedro Espinal said.“We have already a lot of kids with asthma … and I think this is the best thing we can do together,” City Council member Carmen Castillo said.Resolution 32299 requests the state’s Energy Facility Siting Board (EFSB) commit to a full review of a LPG storage expansion proposed by Sea 3 Providence LLC, a subsidiary of New England propane provider Blackline Midstream LLC, operating out of the Port of Providence. In a petition last March, Sea 3 billed the expansion as an “insignificant modification to a major energy facility,” which therefore should not be subject to a full review by the EFSB.
State should have oversight over proposed Chickahominy Pipeline, regulator says - Virginia Mercury -- A state regulatory official on Monday said the State Corporation Commission should have oversight of Chickahominy Pipeline’s plan to build a natural gas pipeline through five central Virginia counties. “In my opinion, Chickahominy’s planned pipeline would be subject to the commission’s jurisdiction … because Chickahominy would be a ‘public utility’ under the plain language of the Utility Facilities Act,”wrote Hearing Examiner D. Mathias Roussy in a report to the commission. Roussy’s report is not binding but will act as a recommendation for the three-judge SCC to use in making their final decision on the case. In September, the pipeline developer, Chickahominy Pipeline, LLC — a company with ties to the planned Chickahominy Power Station in Charles City County — asked the SCC to rule that it didn’t need the commission’s approval to construct the pipeline along an 83-mile route across Louisa, Henrico, Hanover, New Kent and Charles City counties. During a hearing earlier this month, Chickahominy Pipeline argued that it doesn’t need SCC approvalbecause “while it will be transporting natural gas for heat, light or power, it will not be doing so for sale” and therefore should not legally be considered a public utility subject to commission regulation. Roussy rejected that argument and the company’s petition Monday, writing that “the gas that would flow on the pipeline would be sold to (Chickahominy Pipeline) through an arrangement between a natural gas supplier and (Chickahominy Pipeline). Therefore … I find that the natural gas that would be transmitted or distributed by the pipeline is for sale.” If the SCC accepts Roussy’s recommendation, Chickahominy Pipeline will need to seek a certificate of public convenience and necessity to construct the project. Virginia Natural Gas, however, has argued that the commission can’t issue the certificate to the company because doing so would unlawfully allow Chickahominy to provide gas service within the exclusive territory controlled by VNG.
SCC hearing examiner recommends commissioners reject gas pipeline request - A State Corporation Commission hearing examiner issued a report Monday recommending the commission’s three judges reject a request by a company to build a natural gas pipeline across five central Virginia counties without the regulatory oversight given to a utility.The developer of the proposed Chickahominy Pipeline asked the commission in September for permission to build the gas line without approval from the commission. The line would run through Louisa, Hanover, Henrico, New Kent and Charles City counties and serve a yet-to-be-built natural gas power plant in Charles City County.Environmental groups such as the Southern Poverty Law Center say the plant and pipeline aren’t necessary for Virginia’s electricity needs, and opposition to the pipeline has grown among property owners concerned about negative environmental effects.In October, SCC staff recommended the commission reject the company’s request, saying the company is attempting to “subvert” state law “and escape regulation by creating a shell corporation.”Hearing examiner D. Mathias Roussy Jr. said in his Monday report: “In my opinion, Chickahominy’s planned pipeline would be subject to the Commission’s jurisdiction under the Utility Facilities Act because Chickahominy would be a ‘public utility’ under the plain language of the Utility Facilities Act.”Parties in the case can issue comments on the report by Nov. 23.
Chancery Court to hear injunction request against BrightRidge - Chancellor John Rambo will hear a request from Washington County later this week asking for an injunction against BrightRidge regarding a zoning dispute involving a bitcoin mining operation in Limestone. Rambo, who declined to issue a restraining order against the public utility on Monday, cited Rule 65.03(1) and ordered a hearing on the matter in Washington County Chancery Court at 9 a.m. Wednesday. In his order, the chancellor wrote he is calling for the hearing “so that plaintiff has the opportunity to notify defendant’s counsel of the request for the restraining order.” Angela Charles, Washington County’s planning director, is listed as the plaintiff in a motion filed earlier Monday asking the court to issue an injunction against BrightRidge to prevent the energy authority from continuing operations on property it owns at 1444 Bailey Bridge Road that the county says are in violation of its zoning regulations. Washington County alleges a bitcoin mining operation at the site does not conform with a “public utilities” zoning use permitted for the property under the county’s land use regulations.Under the county’s zoning code, a public utility is defined as “a facility providing a pubic service which is owned or authorized by a municipal, county, state or federal government in the provision of such services as transportation, water supply, sewerage treatment, electricity, natural gas and telephone, telegraph and microwave transmission.” At the request of officials from BrightRidge, Washington County commissioners voted in February 2020 to rezone the tract from A-1 general agriculture district to A-3 agriculture/business district. The county says BrightRidge submitted a commercial zoning compliance permit in May 2020 for a “data center” on its newly rezoned property near its Phipps substation. That facility was described as consisting of “15 containers and their associated generators.” Washington County’s complaint in Chancery Court alleges county commissioners first became aware that BrightRidge was in violation of the permitted zoning use for its Limestone property when residents in the neighborhood appeared during the public comment segment of their monthly meeting to voice their concerns about noise coming from the bitcoin operation. Commissioners voted in September to ask their legal counsel to send a letter to officials at BrightRidge, informing them they have 30 days to discontinue the current use of their property.
Listen: US Midwest sees surging propane costs as Gulf Coast supply heads overseas – Podcast Length 20:09 - The latest US inflation data showed energy costs jumping 30% in the 12 months through October. The trend is expected to continue through the winter, as home-heating costs rise across the board. The US Energy Information Administration predicts propane will see the biggest price spike in percentage terms, with heating costs surging 46%, compared with 39% for heating oil, 29% for natural gas and 6% for electricity. Senior editor Meghan Gordon spoke with Andrew Neal, manager of global NGLs for S&P Global Platts Analytics, about some of the dynamics behind the higher prices. They talked about strong global demand for US propane exports, the Enbridge Line 5 pipeline controversy in Michigan, and calls by some in Washington to limit US energy exports in the face of high domestic prices. Stick around after the interview for Jeff Mower with the Market Minute, a look at near-term oil market drivers.
Ameren Illinois' unique natural gas storage — Nearly half of the natural gas Ameren Illinois customers will use this winter is already in the state, but you might be surprised at where it is stored. Eric Kozak with Ameren Illinois said the state "has some natural geologic formations that allow us to store gas in the ground." You don’t see them because they are deep under the farm fields of Illinois in a dozen locations across central and southern Illinois including the Freeburg storage facility just south of town. Other facilities in our area include Centralia and Hillsboro Illinois. "These are natural gas and oil fields where the gas was taken out and depleted, so we repurposed them," Kozak said. "We take gas from the pipeline and put it in the ground." The underground storage capacity in the Freeburg site could fill a container the size of Busch Stadium more than 80 times. It's a cost-effective way of insuring availability of natural gas during the coldest part of the year because Ameren Illinois buys the gas during the warm months when natural gas prices are typically cheaper and demand is lower. Forty to forty-five percent of all the natural gas used this winter by Ameren Illinois customers was stored before November. Kozak says these underground storage fields have "two big benefits, one is that we have the gas right here in Illinois now that we can use in the winter time and we buy is the summer when gas is cheaper."
Environmental group demands Spire halt 'false and defamatory' messaging about pipeline -An environmental organization is demanding Spire Missouri cease and desist its campaign warning customers of dire consequences this winter if the Spire STL pipeline is shut down. The Environmental Defense Fund, which challenged the pipeline’s permit to operate, wrote to Spire on Friday saying the company’s “false and defamatory” comments had inspired area residents to send profanity-laced threats to the nonprofit.The 65-mile Spire STL pipeline has been operational since 2019, transporting natural gas from Illinois into Missouri. But its certificate to operate was revoked by a federal appeals court that said regulators ignored evidence Spire was self-dealing following a challenge from the Environmental Defense Fund. It’s currently operating on a temporary certificate that expires Dec. 13. The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission is poised, EDF said, to give Spire STL an extension to avoid outages this winter. But Spire Missouri warned its St. Louis area customers in an email earlier this month that the pipeline was in jeopardy and forecast dire circumstances this winter, blaming a “New York-based environmental group.” EDF has members who own land the pipeline travels across. That messaging, according to a letter EDF sent Spire on Friday, has “mislead and inspired individuals to direct menacing and threatening messages to individuals as EDF.” EDF noted that FERC is prepared to consider an extension this week to allow the pipeline to keep operating. And it reminded Spire that the environmental group supports such an extension to keep St. Louis residents warm this winter. “Ignoring this reality, Spire has engaged in a public relations campaign designed to engender fear among citizens of the St. Louis region that they may not have heat in the winter because of EDF’s legal challenge,” the letter, signed by an attorney representing EDF says.If Spire doesn’t halt its “campaign of false and defamatory statements,” the letter says EDF will take “all appropriate actions, including potentially seeking redress through the legal system.”
'Build Back Better' Methane Fee Means Higher Costs For Heating Oil, Natural Gas --Environmental activists call it a “methane fee.” The energy industry calls it a “natural gas tax.” Either way, energy consumers are likely to feel the effects in their pocketbooks. The U.S. House of Representatives is expected to vote this week on its version of the budget reconciliation bill — also known as the “Build Back Better” bill — which includes increased fees on methane emissions. Methane is a byproduct of oil and natural gas production, and as a result, the fee would be an increase in the cost of production. Environmentalists say reducing methane is essential to the fight against climate change. At the COP26 meeting in Scotland last week, the United States announced it will participate in the Global Methane Pledge to cut methane emissions 30 percent by 2030. “Methane has more than 80 times the warming power of carbon dioxide over the first 20 years after it reaches the atmosphere,” says Environmental Defense Fund (EDF) on its website. “Even though CO2 has a longer-lasting effect, methane sets the pace for warming in the near term.” As National Geographic reports, “Whereas carbon dioxide persists for centuries, most methane converts to carbon dioxide or gets cycled out of the atmosphere within about a decade.” Meanwhile, two of the world’s biggest methane emitters — China nor Russia — refused to sign the Global Methane Pledge. And energy producers point to America’s surging costs to heat their homes this winter and the wider inflation problem as evidence that this is the wrong time to add costs to consumers’ utility bills. “This is nothing more than a tax on natural gas at a time when policymakers should be focused on solutions that support affordable, reliable energy while reducing emissions,” says API Senior Vice President of Policy, Economics and Regulatory Affairs Frank Macchiarola. “We must continue to drive down methane emissions without adding new burdens on American families and businesses,” added Karen Harbert, President and CEO of the American Gas Association. “Our analysis indicates that the proposed tax could increase natural gas bills from 12 percent to 34 percent, depending on the variation of the proposal assessed.”
Lower 48 Plays to Continue Ratcheting Up Natural Gas, Oil Output in December, EIA Says -Led by growth out of the Haynesville Shale, natural gas production from seven key U.S. onshore regions is set to climb from November to December, according to updated projections from the Energy Information Administration (EIA). Total natural gas production from the Anadarko, Appalachia and Permian basins, as well as from the Bakken, Eagle Ford, Haynesville and Niobrara shales, will rise an estimated 226 MMcf/d month/month to reach 89.376 Bcf/d in December, the agency said in its latest monthly Drilling Productivity Report (DPR), published Monday. EIA expects the largest monthly increase from the Haynesville at an estimated 111 MMcf/d, with Permian natural gas production projected to climb 87 MMcf/d for the period. Natural gas production gains are also expected for the Appalachia (up 7 MMcf/d), Bakken (up 8 MMcf/d), Eagle Ford (up 31 MMcf/d) and Niobrara (up 12 MMcf/d) regions. The only one of the seven regions expected to see lower month/month gas output is the Anadarko, with production there projected to fall 30 MMcf/d from November to December, DPR data show. Driven largely by the Permian, total crude oil production from the seven shale plays will increase 85,000 b/d from November to December to just over 8.3 million b/d, according to EIA. The Permian will account for 67,000 b/d of the incremental crude output, with much smaller increases expected out of the Anadarko (up 2,000 b/d), Appalachia (up 2,000 b/d), Bakken (up 5,000 b/d), Eagle Ford (up 5,000 b/d) and Niobrara (up 4,000 b/d) regions. Operators across the seven regions depleted their drilling backlogs to the tune of 222 drilled but uncompleted wells (DUC) from September to October, dropping the overall DUC tally to 5,104. Permian DUC totals fell 107 units to 1,705 for October to lead across-the-board declines in the U.S. onshore. The Anadarko (down 13), Appalachia (down 24), Bakken (down 29), Eagle Ford (down 35), Haynesville (down seven) and Niobrara (down seven) regions also posted declining DUC totals for the September-October period, according to the latest DPR data. EIA’s DPR makes use of recent rig data along with drilling productivity estimates and estimated changes in production from existing wells to model changes in production from the seven regions.
Natural Gas Drilling Activity Steady in US as Growth Remains Oil-Focused - The U.S. natural gas rig count finished unchanged at 102 during the week ended Friday (Nov. 19) as the oil patch continued to set the pace for growth in domestic drilling activity, according to the latest numbers from Baker Hughes Co. (BKR). The overall U.S. rig count added seven units — all oil-directed — to reach 563 for the week, roughly 250 rigs higher than the 310 rigs running in the year-earlier period. Like the natural gas rig count, the Gulf of Mexico tally was also unchanged for the week, finishing at 15, according to the BKR numbers, which are partly based on data from Enverus.Seven horizontal rigs were added domestically, while directional and vertical rig totals were unchanged.The Canadian rig count slid one unit to 167 for the period, with a net decline of two natural gas-directed units offsetting the addition of one oil-directed rig. Broken down by major play, the Permian led the way with a net increase of six rigs, growing its total to 278, up from 156 in the year-ago period. The Utica Shale, meanwhile, saw a net decline of two rigs for the week.Elsewhere among plays, the Eagle Ford, Haynesville and Marcellus shales each added a rig, while one rig exited in the Denver Julesburg-Niobrara, according to BKR.In the state-by-state breakdown, Texas posted a net increase of seven rigs, while New Mexico added two to its total. One rig was added in West Virginia for the week, while Ohio posted a net decline of two rigs.The call on oil and gas rigs is expected to climb faster than Helmerich & Payne Inc . (H&P) can accommodate, CEO John Lindsay said during a recent conference call, adding that the oilfield services provider “will have to reactivate more long-idled rigs to satisfy demand.”
More Climate Finance, Less Coal Could Send U.S. Natural Gas Exports Skyrocketing - The eye-popping financial promises made Nov. 3 at the COP26 climate summit in Glasgow, Scotland, could shift global energy markets — and, it appears, with some unintended consequences. With energy needs still growing in nations like India and China, already-booming U.S. exports of liquefied natural gas could skyrocket to replace some of the coal-fired generating capacity that will be phased out, analysts predicted. Neither the Biden administration nor other leaders at COP26, nor investors, have thus far signaled that they want natural gas production curtailed. The global climate efforts could result in more drilling and fracking for natural gas in the U.S., boosting the industry and bringing new jobs and revenue. But it would also result in more carbon emissions from states like Texas and Pennsylvania — all to help other nations wean themselves off coal. "Asia continues to demand more LNG, the U.S. is happy to supply it, and to the maximum extent possible seems likely to continue doing so," said Kevin Book, managing director of ClearView Energy Partners. "And if you look at investors and their portfolios, it's hard for them to put tens of trillions of dollars to work without buying a little bit of gas." The Glasgow Financial Alliance for Net Zero announced Nov. 3 at the COP26 climate conference that it now has 450 private capital firms representing $130 trillion committed to financing the global energy transition. Philanthropies and development banks said the same day that they have lined up $10.5 billion to help emerging economies phase out coal. Samantha Gross, director for the Brookings Institution's Energy Security and Climate Initiative, agreed that many nations that today depend heavily on coal-fired power plants for their energy needs will need to rely on natural gas for some time as they seek to decarbonize their economies. That will benefit U.S. exports of LNG, Gross said. "Eventually," Gross added, "uncontrolled gas-fired power becomes problematic for power generation too, as it is also a fossil fuel, just a less carbon-intensive one." Burning natural gas to produce electricity generates about half the emissions of a coal plant. The extraction and processing of natural gas have additional environmental impacts. Natural gas production systems in the U.S. released nearly 195 million metric tons of greenhouse gas emissions in 2019, rising 4.5% from the previous year, according to the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's latest greenhouse gas inventory. That is equivalent to driving 42 million passenger cars for a year. Methane emissions, which the Biden administration seeks to tackle with new rules proposed Nov. 2, made up the bulk of greenhouse gas emissions from the sector. Methane traps 84 times more heat in the atmosphere than carbon dioxide during a 20-year period, which is why it is considered key to slowing climate change.
US shale basin merger and acquisition activity surpasses seven-year high - Merger and acquisition activity among US oil and gas operators surpassed a seven-year high this month as companies consolidate acreage in prolific southern basins. 2021 has had an unprecedented level of merger and acquisition activity, which now stands at $53.9 billion year to date, marking the highest level of activity since 2014, according to S&P Global Platts Analytics. In all of 2014, the busiest year on record, merger and acquisition activity totaled $53.5 billion. In 2014, Henry Hub spot gas averaged $4.37/MMBtu, the highest annual average since 2010. Henry Hub spot gas year to date in 2021 has averaged $3.85/MMBtu, which is the strongest average since 2014. While it is no surprise the Permian Basin accounts for the bulk of all transactions at 60%, the Haynesville has had an unusually active year. The Haynesville has had $6.75 billion in activity, making up 13% of all deals year to date, making it the second most active basin. Southwestern Energy entered the Haynesville earlier this year, with the purchase of Indigo Natural Resources for $2.7 billion. However, their newest acquisition of GEP Haynesville for $1.85 billion, will make them the largest Haynesville operator in the country. The deal will comprise $1.33 billion in cash and the remaining $525 million will come from an estimated 99 million shares of common stock. The Haynesville provides close to access to rising areas of demand, such as LNG feedgas, exports to Mexico, industrial and gas-fired generation. “The transaction adds significant high-return locations to our development inventory while expanding access to premium Gulf Coast markets,”
U.S. natgas jump near 5% on colder forecast, rising global prices (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures jumped almost 5% on Monday on forecasts for colder weather and higher heating demand over the next two weeks than previously expected. In addition, U.S. prices gained support from a European gas where prices jumped 9% on cooler weather and after a monthly auction showed that Russian gas giant Gazprom PAO had not booked any additional gas transit capacity to Europe for December. In October, global gas prices hit record highs as utilities around the world scrambled for liquefied natural gas (LNG) cargoes to replenish low stockpiles in Europe and meet insatiable demand in Asia, where energy shortfalls have caused power blackouts in China. Following those global gas prices, U.S. futures climbed to a 12-year high in early October on expectations LNG demand would remain strong for months. But overseas prices were still trading about six times higher than U.S. futures because the United States has plenty of gas in storage and ample production. Analysts have said that European inventories were about 20% below normal for this time of year, compared with just 3% below normal in the United States. In what is starting out like another volatile week of trade, front-month gas futures rose 22.6 cents, or 4.7%, to settle at $5.017 per million British thermal units (mmBtu). On Friday, the contract dropped about 7% to its lowest close since Sept. 7. Data provider Refinitiv said output in the U.S. Lower 48 states averaged 96.1 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in November, up from 94.1 bcfd in October and a monthly record of 95.4 bcfd in November 2019. Refinitiv projected average U.S. gas demand, including exports, would jump from 105.1 bcfd this week to 112.0 bcfd next week as the weather turns colder and homes and businesses crank up their heaters. Those forecasts were higher than Refinitiv projected on Friday. U.S. exports to Canada averaged 3.0 bcfd so far in November, up from 2.1 bcfd in October, according to Refinitiv data. That compares with an all-time monthly high of 3.5 bcfd in December 2019. The amount of gas flowing to U.S. LNG export plants, meanwhile, averaged 11.1 bcfd so far in November, up from 10.5 bcfd in October as the sixth train at Cheniere Energy Inc's Sabine Pass plant in Louisiana started producing LNG in test mode. That compares with a monthly record of 11.5 bcfd in April. .
December Natural Gas Futures Sustain Rally as Global Supply Worries Intensify Natural gas futures on Tuesday rallied with vigor amid continued strength in U.S. exports of liquefied natural gas (LNG) and renewed concerns about European supplies that sent global gas prices higher. The December Nymex contract jumped 16.0 cents day/day and settled at $5.177/MMBtu. A day earlier, the prompt month posted a 22.6-cent gain. January advanced 16.6 cents to $5.270 on Tuesday. NGI’s Spot Gas National Avg. climbed 36.5 cents to $5.030, led higher by price surges in the West. Dutch Title Transfer Facility prices, already hovering near record levels most of the fall, climbed further Tuesday after a German regulator suspended its certification of Russia’s recently completed Nord Stream 2 pipeline. The pipeline would transport natural gas from Russia to Germany, and its commissioning is widely anticipated at a time when Europe is short on gas in storage and in need of Russian imports to ensure adequate supplies this winter. The regulatory inaction – tied to festering political tensions between Russia and Europe – means gas most likely will not flow to Germany via the new pipeline ahead of winter and could be on hold indefinitely, Rystad Energy analysts said. “The certification struggles that surfaced…for Nord Stream 2 are another reason to expect that the pipeline will not be starting commercial operations until about mid-2022, despite voices for more Russian gas to Europe amid the ongoing energy supply crunch that has caused gas prices to spike,” Rystad analyst Carlos Torres Diaz said Tuesday. Diaz said over the past week, Russian gas exports to Europe through Ukraine and Poland increased by 5%. “While these additional supplies are helping the European balance, the likelihood of seeing a substantial increase in supplies before Nord Stream 2 starts operations is limited,” he said. “Nord Stream 2 is the pipeline that can change the supply game in Europe and tip the scale, so delays in its utilization mean the current tight gas market conditions will persist through the winter.”
U.S. natgas futures drop 7% on rising output, lower demand forecast (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures dropped 7% on Wednesday as output continues to rise, expectations that last week's storage build was big and on forecasts for lower heating demand this week. U.S. futures declined despite record gas futures in Asia and a 27% jump in European prices over the past three days on worries Russian gas company Gazprom PAO will not deliver enough fuel to Europe for this winter after Germany's energy regulator suspended the approval process for Gazprom's Nord Stream 2 gas pipe from Russia to Germany. Global gas prices hit record highs as utilities around the world scramble for LNG cargoes to replenish extremely low stockpiles in Europe and meet insatiable demand in Asia, where energy shortfalls have caused power blackouts in China. Front-month gas futures fell 36.1 cents, or 7.0%, to settle at $4.816 per million British thermal units (mmBtu). After weeks of extremely volatile trade, the 7% drop on Wednesday was only the biggest daily percentage loss since Nov. 9. In spot news, next-day gas prices at the Northwest Sumas hub NG-PX-HUN-SNL at the Washington-British Columbia border jumped about 38% to their highest since late October after Enbridge Inc reduced flows on its Westcoast pipe in British Columbia due to flooding. That was the biggest daily percentage gain at Sumas since the February freeze left millions without power in Texas. Refinitiv projected average U.S. gas demand, including exports, would jump from 104.2 bcfd this week to 112.2 bcfd next week as the weather turns colder and homes and businesses crank up their heaters. The forecast for this week was lower than Refinitiv projected on Tuesday.
US working natural gas in underground storage increases by 26 Bcf: EIA | S&P Global Platts -- US natural gas working stocks increased by 26 Bcf for the week ended Nov. 12 in what was likely the final net injection of 2021. Storage inventories climbed to 3.644 Tcf, the US Energy Information Administration reported Nov. 18. The injection was more than an S&P Global Platts survey of analysts calling for a 22 Bcf addition. The injection was less than the 28 Bcf build reported during the corresponding week in 2020, but far outweighed the five-year average draw of 12 Bcf, according to EIA data. As a result, stocks were 310 Bcf, or 7.8%, below the year-ago level of 3.954 Tcf and 81 Bcf, or 2.2%, below the five-year average of 3.725 Tcf. The Henry Hub winter strip had just climbed 20 cents/MMBtu Nov. 16 on both colder domestic weather outlooks and a setback for Nord Stream 2, which has sent European gas prices on an upswing. The first driver of the Henry Hub upswing is a colder outlook for domestic weather, boosting expectations for near-term demand. In regions like the East, Midwest, and the South Central, Platts Analytics' 14-day temperature outlook fell by upwards of 2 degrees in the latter half of the outlook from the Nov. 12 forecast to the Nov. 16 forecast. Additionally, Germany suspended its approval process for Nord Stream 2, adding downside risk to European gas supplies this winter. This has boosted European gas pricing, with TTF and NBP day-ahead prices rising 18% and 10%, respectively. Stronger European gas pricing has likely contributed to the uplift seen in the Henry Hub winter strip, with risk to European gas supplies reinforcing the role of US exports in serving European gas demand this winter. Platts Analytics expects US LNG feedgas deliveries will average 12.3 Bcf/d for the balance of the winter, up from 10.4 Bcf/d last winter. An S&P Global Platts Analytics' supply and demand model forecast calls for 22 Bcf withdrawal for the week ending Nov. 19, which would be half the five-year average draw as the heating season gets off to a slow start, but global factors continue to provide support for US gas prices.
Natural Gas Prices Rally Again, with December Futures Finishing Strong Week on High Note -- Natural gas futures on Friday rallied for the fourth time in the week’s five trading sessions, lifted by ongoing robust levels of U.S. exports and expectations for stronger weather-driven demand in coming weeks. The December Nymex contract gained 16.3 cents day/day and settled at $5.065/MMBtu. January rose 15.0 cents to $5.145. NGI’s Spot Gas National Avg., however, shed 7.5 cents to $4.880 as temperatures climbed and prices dropped in the West. While forecasts have wobbled from day to day this month, Bespoke Weather Services said Friday the European model “showed a much more threatening look for potential cold toward the end of the run in early December.” The firm cautioned, however, that the European model “has been most guilty in recent weeks of hinting at bigger cold patterns that have not materialized” and volatility in both forecasts and natural gas prices likely lies ahead. “We need more consistency before being able to build a more confident case.” That noted, long-range outlooks do call for steadily colder weather across the northern United States in December. Additionally, mid-range forecasts point to freezing conditions over large swaths of Europe late this month and early into the next. This comes at a time when countries across the continent are low on gas in storage and paying a premium to import U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG). LNG feed gas volumes hovered close to 2021 highs around 11 Bcf throughout the past week after reaching a near-record level of 12 Bcf earlier this month. NGI’s estimate showed feed gas volumes again eclipsing the 12 Bcf threshold early Friday. Elevated LNG levels are widely expected to continue through the winter, providing support for Henry Hub prices. EBW Analytics Group said amid the maintenance projects, LNG volumes have fluctuated this fall. Still, with work culminating at key locations in the Gulf of Mexico, the seven-day moving average as of Friday “illustrates a clear pattern of steadily increasing demand into early winter. Further demand gains are ahead” and “new daily demand records north of 12.25 Bcf/d are possible” in the coming week.
U.S. Natural Gas Producers Face Billions In Hedging Losses In 2022 - US gas producers are set to book billions of dollars in hedging losses next year because they hedged most of their 2022 production before the recent energy crunch caused gas prices to soar, a Rystad Energy analysis reveals. The analysis zooms in on a peer group of shale-gas-focused producers that accounts for 35% of unconventional gas production and about 53% of shale gas production in the US Land region this year. These 11 operators stand to lose more than $5 billion in 2022 if the average Henry Hub price strip remains at $4 per MMBtu – an amount that could double if Henry Hub prices average $5 per MMBtu. The reason behind the expected losses is that the operators had already hedged more than half of their 2022 production by the time they reported their second-quarter results, when prices were trading much lower than the currently inflated levels. By the end of September, as much as 64% of their projected production was hedged. To complete the picture and look beyond our research group, tight-oil-focused producers tend to hedge a lower share of their associated gas production than our peer group of public gas-focused producers. The hedging profiles of private shale gas-focused operators vary widely, but on average they behave in line with the researched peer group. Gas producers focused on cash flow from proved developed producing (PDP) resources in conventional fields tend to hedge only a limited share of their production. Still, some have a high percentage of fixed-price sales with deliveries to local markets. In terms of total volumes, the associated gas contracts of tight-oil-focused public producers would be about 50% lower than those of the shale-gas-focused peer group. Still, their typical hedging floor is somewhat higher based on their third-quarter earnings. For private operators, there is lower visibility, but significant Haynesville private names tend to hedge well in advance, indicating low hedging floors.
Shale Drilling Could Accelerate Soon - Much has been made of the fact that oil and gas prices have recovered to the point that U.S. shale is very profitable, and yet drilling has not picked up yet. The rigs active in the Marcellus and the Permian are still about half pre-pandemic levels. As the two primary sources of incremental gas and oil supply from U.S. shale, the direction of investment in those areas will be important in determining world oil and U.S. gas prices in the next year and beyond. Generally, the upstream sector has seen a significant decrease in investment after both the price drop in 2015 and the pandemic with its associated weak prices in 2020. This has caused serious concern about tight supplies in the medium-term future, rather as happened after the 1998 oil price collapse, which was partly responsible for the high prices in the 2000s. (The second Gulf War and Venezuelan political turmoil were also major factors.) Also, as Bloomberg’s Will Hares said, ““Oil companies are finding it increasingly difficult to raise financing amid rising ESG and sustainability concerns, while banks are under pressure from their own investors to reduce or eliminate fossil-fuel financing.” Cost of Capital Widens for Fossil-Fuel Producers: Green Insight - Bloomberg But U.S. shale is a somewhat different animal, partly because much of the operation is carried out by small, independent oil producers and partly because shale is higher cost than much of the world’s oil supply, but also because it has a short lead time. Production could ramp up much more quickly in U.S. shale fields than almost anywhere else in the world. So why hasn’t it? Most argue that the shale industry has been burned before by overinvesting, only to see prices collapse, and that always remains a possibility. But additionally, the financial sector has become much more wary about investing in shale after the collapse in prices for oil and natural gas, albeit at different times. This, combined with pressure for investors to focus on ESG targets, translates into less money for fossil fuels and more for renewables, which means companies don’t want to invest in petroleum development. Until they do. Capital discipline tends to be cyclical, as does spending and while companies (and investors) might be more focused on return to investment for their capital, it also seems likely that the current high prices will encourage more drilling. The first objection, from Pioneer Natural Resources PXD -0.2% CEO Scott Sheffield, that companies should avoid investments that would flood the market and collapse prices, tends to fall down in the face of the lack of control over producers, who will tend to seek profits—if they perceive them. The next, and possibly more interesting objection to higher investment, revolves around the returns on capital. Until recently, the returns on oil were anemic, while stocks provided stellar returns, as the figure below shows. (Annual change on the S&P 500 year on year from November 11th.) In six of the last ten years, the S&P 500 grew by more than 10%, making it a very attractive investment indeed. :
North Shreveport community members meet to discuss impact of fracking in populated areas - North Shreveport residents met at Southern University Thursday night to discuss potential implications of hydraulic fracking in populated areas. As technology has progressed, gas companies are able to drill on smaller pieces of land, which allows them to set up shop in more urban areas. People who live near drilling sites are often paid royalties for operations being conducted so close to their homes. It also helps bring tax revenue into the city and business that comes with more workers. But others are suspicious of the impact fracking has on the community. They worry about possible chemical leaks, pollution and noise. Gas companies say they have tried to mitigate the noise that comes with drilling at night. They also say that large precautions are taken to ensure that chemicals are handled safely. Still, some community member worry that one mistake could lead to disaster. State Representative Cedric Glover, D-Shreveport, held the community to make sure everyone is informed and empowered to make their own decisions on this issue.
Biden Admin Set to Proceed With Largest Offshore Oil & Gas Lease Sale in U.S History - In two days, the Biden administration will oversee the largest offshore oil and gas lease sale in U.S. history. The sale will make more than 80 million acres in the Gulf of Mexico available for drilling, HuffPost reported. That's an area larger than the state of New Mexico, and it would add 1.1 billion barrels of oil and 4.4 trillion cubic feet of natural gas to global production over the coming decades, despite the fact that scientists agree we must rapidly reduce greenhouse gas emissions in order to avoid the worst impacts of the climate crisis. While the administration says it was forced to go ahead with the sale by a court decision, environmental activists argue it could have done more to fight back. "You promised to address the climate crisis with the urgency it deserves, and in Glasgow, you assured the world that your plans to cut emissions are a fait accompli, not mere rhetoric," a coalition of 267 Indigenous and environmental groups wrote in a letter to President Joe Biden protesting the sale. "Selling more than 80 million acres in the Gulf of Mexico for oil and gas development just days after the international climate talks makes a mockery of those commitments."
Our Views: Joe Biden forced to back down to federal court, economic reality in Gulf oil leasing - Baton Rouge Advocate Editorial - While they’ve been dragged kicking into doing something so positive for the U.S. and Louisiana economy, officials of the Biden administration are resuming sales on leases for future oil and gas production in the Gulf of Mexico. The Department of the Interior sale Tuesday marks a resumption of the longtime sales, in which companies bid for rights to explore for oil and gas in millions of acres of Gulf waters. Winning bidders will be announced Wednesday. This is a welcome respite from one of new President Joe Biden’s most knee-jerk responses to a worldwide climate crisis: Stopping lease sales for future production of fossil fuels does not change the world economy’s need for energy. Just look at the big numbers atop gas stations to understand that. The lease sale also marks a win for one of Biden’s most persistent critics, Louisiana Attorney General Jeff Landry, who sued in federal court. A judge in Monroe, appointed by former President Donald Trump, overturned the ban. Biden said the lease sales were to be stopped only temporarily. We took that to mean that they were looking for evidence to make a ban, or long-term slowdown, permanent. We believe that any fair analysis of the energy markets will yield conclusions that the Biden administration experts already knew. As Jim Fitterling, chairman of Dow, told a Baton Rouge audience Thursday, the changing energy future of the world — a transition that is needed and significant — will still include oil and gas production and petrochemical manufacturing as far as the eye can see. Anything else, like throwing over lease sales? Political gestures. Those backfired, although today's lease sales don't directly influence today's prices at the gas pumps. But with gasoline prices so high, Biden's ban on leases was a politically unwise gesture.
U.S. holds historic oil and gas lease sale in Gulf of Mexico days after climate summit - The Biden administration on Wednesday is opening more than 80 million acres in the Gulf of Mexico to auction for oil and gas drilling, a record offshore lease sale that will lock in years of planet-warming greenhouse gas emissions. The lease sale is a major reversal of Biden's commitment to shut down new oil and natural gas leases on public lands and waters and comes just days after the president's pledge to slash emissions during the United Nations climate summit in Glasgow, Scotland. The lease sale has the potential to emit more than 516 million metric tons of greenhouse gas emissions into the atmosphere — the equivalent to annual emissions of 130 coal-fired power plants or 112 million cars, according to the Center of Biological Diversity. "This administration went to Scotland and told the world that America's climate leadership is back, and now it's about to hand over 80 million acres of public waters in the Gulf of Mexico to fossil fuel companies," House Natural Resources Committee Chairman Raúl Grijalva, D-Ariz., said in a statement. The president signed an executive order in January directing the Secretary of the Interior to halt new oil and natural gas leases on public lands and waters and to begin a thorough review of existing permits for fossil fuel development. But in June, a federal judge in Louisiana issued a preliminary injunction to block the administration's suspension and ordered that plans continue for lease sales that were delayed for the Gulf and Alaska waters. The U.S. Department of Justice is asking an appeals court to overturn the judge's order. Environmental advocacy groups condemned the administration for not taking stronger action to block the injunction and have sued the administration over its decision to hold the sale. Their lawsuit argues that Interior's environmental analysis in 2017 regarding the Gulf sale is flawed and neglects new data showing the increasing dangers from pipeline leaks. "The Biden administration is lighting the fuse on a massive carbon bomb in the Gulf of Mexico," said Kristen Monsell, oceans legal director at the Center for Biological Diversity. "It's hard to imagine a more dangerous, hypocritical action in the aftermath of the climate summit." "This will inevitably lead to more catastrophic oil spills, more toxic climate pollution, and more suffering for communities and wildlife along the Gulf Coast," Monsell said. Interior spokesperson Melissa Schwartz said the department is complying with the judge's injunction while the government appeals the decision, and said the agency is "conducting a more comprehensive analysis of greenhouse gas impacts from potential oil and gas lease sales than ever before." The Biden administration has approved 3,091 new drilling permits on public lands at a rate of 332 per month, a faster pace than the Trump administration's 300 permits per month. The permit approvals for fossil fuel production are at odds with Biden's aggressive climate agenda, including a pledge to cut U.S. greenhouse gas emissions in half by 2030 and reach net-zero emissions by 2050. "The dichotomy between holding a lease sale and committing to cut back U.S. carbon emissions is glaring," said Brettny Hardy, an Earthjustice attorney. "By selling these leases, the Biden administration is not solving the oil prices of today, but instead increasing the United States' climate heating emissions tomorrow."
US auctions off oil and gas drilling leases in Gulf of Mexico after climate talks -Just four days after landmark climate talks in Scotland in which Joe Biden vowed the US will “lead by example” in tackling dangerous global heating, the president’s own administration is providing a jarring contradiction – the largest ever sale of oil and gas drilling leases in the Gulf of Mexico.The US federal government is on Wednesday launching an auction of more than 80m acres of the gulf for fossil fuel extraction, a record sell-off that will lock in years, and potentially decades, of planet-heating emissions.The enormous size of the lease sale – covering an area that is twice as large as Florida – is a blunt repudiation of Biden’s previous promise to shut down new drilling on public lands and waters. It has stunned environmentalists who argue the auction punctures the US’s shaky credibility on the climate crisis and will make it harder to avert catastrophic impacts from soaring global heating.“Coming in the aftermath of the climate summit, this is just mind boggling. It’s hard to imagine a more hypocritical and dangerous thing for the administration to do,” said Kristen Monsell, senior attorney at the Center for Biological Diversity. “It’s incredibly reckless and we think unlawful too. It’s just immensely disappointing.”Even Biden’s Democratic allies have raised concerns.“This administration went to Scotland and told the world that America’s climate leadership is back, and now it’s about to hand over 80m acres of public waters in the Gulf of Mexico to fossil fuel companies,” said Raul Grijalva, chair of the House natural resources committee. “[The] lease sale is a step in the wrong direction, and the administration needs to do better.”There is no guarantee that all the leases will be taken up by oil and gas companies but the Department of the Interior, which oversees public lands and waters, has estimated there is as much as 1.12bn barrels of oil and 4.2tn cubic ft of gas available for extraction. A separate lease sale offered by the government in Alaska’s Cook Inlet will offer up another 192m barrels of oil and 301bn cubic ft of gas to drillers.Combined, these leases w ould result in nearly 600m tons of planet-heating gases if fully developed over the next four decades, which is more than the total annual emissions of the UK.3
Companies bid $192 million in 1st Gulf oil sale under Biden (AP) — Energy companies including Shell, BP, Chevron and ExxonMobil offered a combined $192 million for drilling rights on federal oil and gas reserves in the Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday, as the first government lease auction under President Joe Biden laid bare the hurdles he faces to reach climate goals dependent on deep cuts in fossil fuel emissions. The Interior Department auction came after attorneys general from Republican states led by Louisiana successfully challenged a suspension on sales that Biden imposed when he took office.Companies bid on 308 tracts totaling nearly 2,700 square miles (6,950 square kilometers). It marked the largest acreage and second-highest bid total since Gulf-wide bidding resumed in 2017.Driving the heightened interest are a rebound in oil prices and uncertainty about the future of the leasing program, industry analysts said. Biden campaigned on pledges to end drilling on federally owned lands and waters, which includes the Gulf.“Prices are higher now than they’ve been since 2018,” said Rene Santos with S&P Global Platts. “The other thing is this fear that the Biden administration is here for another three years. They’re certainly not going to accelerate the number of lease sales and they could potentially have fewer sales.”It will take years to develop the leases before companies start pumping crude. That means they could keep producing long past 2030, when scientists say the world needs to be well on the way to cutting greenhouse gas emissions to avoid catastrophic climate change.Yet even as Biden has tried to cajole other world leaders into strengthening efforts against global warming, including at this month’s UN climate talks in Scotland, he’s had difficulty gaining ground on climate issues at home. he administration has proposed another round of oil and gas sales early next year in Wyoming, Colorado, Montana and other states. Interior Department officials proceeded despite concluding that burning the fuels could lead to billions of dollars in potential future climate damages.Emissions from burning and extracting fossil fuels from public lands and waters account for about a quarter of U.S. carbon dioxide emissions, according to the U.S. Geological Survey.
Fossil Fuel Companies Pay $192 Million to Extract Fossil Fuels From the Gulf of Mexico -The Biden administration went through with the largest offshore oil and gas lease sale in U.S. history Wednesday. In the controversial sale, major fossil-fuel companies including ExxonMobil, Shell, Chevron and BP bid a total of $192 million for the rights to drill a stretch of the Gulf of Mexico that is about double the size of Florida, The AP reported. The amount offered is the second-highest total since bidding resumed in the Gulf of Mexico in 2017."It's basically a giveaway to industry of millions of acres of the Gulf of Mexico so they can lock in production for years, at a time when we need to be shifting away from fossil fuel development," Earthjustice attorney Brettny Hardy told The AP.The Biden administration has been widely criticized for allowing the sale to proceed even after President Joe Biden promised U.S. climate action during the COP26 talks in Glasgow."Coming in the aftermath of the climate summit, this is just mind boggling. It's hard to imagine a more hypocritical and dangerous thing for the administration to do," Center for Biological Diversity (CBD) senior attorney Kristen Monsell told The Guardian. "It's incredibly reckless and we think unlawful too. It's just immensely disappointing."Biden did try to honor his campaign promise to halt oil and gas drilling on public lands, but Republican attorneys general led by Louisiana mounted a legal challenge that paved the way for Wednesday's sale. The fear that Biden may limit drilling in the future may have increased interest in this sale, The AP noted, along with rising oil and gas prices."Prices are higher now than they've been since 2018," Rene Santos of S&P Global Platts told The AP. "The other thing is this fear that the Biden administration is here for another three years. They're certainly not going to accelerate the number of lease sales and they could potentially have fewer sales." In total, the administration sold 1.7 million acres of 80 million on offer, which amounts to almost all the available blocks in the Gulf, Reuters reported. Chevron bid the most at the sale, offering $47.1 million. The next highest spenders were Anadarko, owned by Occidental Petroleum Corp, BP, Royal Dutch Shell and ExxonMobil. Exxon bought the most tracts by acreage, gobbling up a third of what sold. However, the fact that the company acquired 94 shallow water blocks may mean it has an unconventional use planned for its purchase.
ExxonMobil bids big in Texas shallow waters during US Gulf Lease Sale 257 | S&P Global PlattsUS Gulf of Mexico Lease Sale 257 captured healthy, if measured, bid totals Nov. 17, with numerous multimillion-dollar offers made in deepwater, and ExxonMobil taking honors as the star of shallow-water with tracts it snagged at relatively low prices. The major's presence in shallow waters was the biggest surprise to come out of the sale as it bid for about 100 Continental Shelf blocks along the Texas coast. "It's a clear indication of the [company's intention to use the blocks for its] carbon capture and storage project," said Justin Rostant, principal analyst-Gulf of Mexico research for energy consultancy Wood Mackenzie. "I anticipate they'll use the area for direct capture of carbon and put it in the reservoirs of the blocks they acquire." ExxonMobil's CCS project is a Texas hub to capture and store CO2 emissions from heavy industries around the Houston Ship Channel. It would require $100 billion of investment and aims at capturing 50 million metric tons/year of CO2 by 2030 and twice that amount by 2040. ExxonMobil unveiled the project April 19. Rostant noted the Texas Gulf Coast has not been a prolific production area in recent decades and said ExxonMobil sold off its shallow-water producing fields years ago. ExxonMobil bid $158,400 each for the shallow blocks for an about $15.5 million total for all, a relative bargain considering many shallow-water tracts in Sale 257 fetched several hundred thousand dollars apiece. Sale sponsor US Bureau of Ocean Energy Management said in a post-sale news release in the future it will "use updated greenhouse gas emission models to take substitution impacts and foreign oil consumption into account, resulting in the most robust projections ever of the climate impacts of offshore lease sales." It will also analyze the "social cost of carbon to better understand the true impacts of fossil fuel leasing decisions." Sale 257 was expected to be bigger Analysts and even BOEM thought the auction would yield higher bid totals, if not more bids, than recent sales. The results didn't disappoint. The success of Sale 257 is "a combination of higher oil prices and also the fear that the Biden Administration could try to change the leasing process in the future" like fewer lease sales, less acreage offered, or tougher royalty/lease rental terms, said Rene Santos, manager of North American supply for S&P Global Platts Analytics. The auction generated nearly $192 million in high bids placed on 307 blocks. A total 316 bids were placed, signifying there was not a lot of competition for acreage. In terms of numbers of bids, "this is the highest total in seven years, since Sale 231 in 2014 which had 326 bids," BOEM regional Gulf spokesman John Filostrat said. "It's an indication that companies are still interested in the Gulf of Mexico." By contrast, Sale 256 in November 2020 captured $121 million, with 105 bids placed across 93 blocks. A total of 33 companies participated in Sale 257, compared with 23 a year ago.
Lower 48 Plays to Continue Ratcheting Up Natural Gas, Oil Output in December, EIA Says -- Led by growth out of the Haynesville Shale, natural gas production from seven key U.S. onshore regions is set to climb from November to December, according to updated projections from the Energy Information Administration (EIA). Total natural gas production from the Anadarko, Appalachia and Permian basins, as well as from the Bakken, Eagle Ford, Haynesville and Niobrara shales, will rise an estimated 226 MMcf/d month/month to reach 89.376 Bcf/d in December, the agency said in its latest monthly Drilling Productivity Report (DPR), published Monday. EIA expects the largest monthly increase from the Haynesville at an estimated 111 MMcf/d, with Permian natural gas production projected to climb 87 MMcf/d for the period. Natural gas production gains are also expected for the Appalachia (up 7 MMcf/d), Bakken (up 8 MMcf/d), Eagle Ford (up 31 MMcf/d) and Niobrara (up 12 MMcf/d) regions. The only one of the seven regions expected to see lower month/month gas output is the Anadarko, with production there projected to fall 30 MMcf/d from November to December, DPR data show. Driven largely by the Permian, total crude oil production from the seven shale plays will increase 85,000 b/d from November to December to just over 8.3 million b/d, according to EIA. The Permian will account for 67,000 b/d of the incremental crude output, with much smaller increases expected out of the Anadarko (up 2,000 b/d), Appalachia (up 2,000 b/d), Bakken (up 5,000 b/d), Eagle Ford (up 5,000 b/d) and Niobrara (up 4,000 b/d) regions. Operators across the seven regions depleted their drilling backlogs to the tune of 222 drilled but uncompleted wells (DUC) from September to October, dropping the overall DUC tally to 5,104. Permian DUC totals fell 107 units to 1,705 for October to lead across-the-board declines in the U.S. onshore. The Anadarko (down 13), Appalachia (down 24), Bakken (down 29), Eagle Ford (down 35), Haynesville (down seven) and Niobrara (down seven) regions also posted declining DUC totals for the September-October period, according to the latest DPR data.
Permian's Double E Pipeline enters service as West Texas gas output surges | S&P Global Platts - The startup of the Double E Pipeline this week promises to significantly expand downstream market access for Permian Basin producers, possibly fueling new production growth in New Mexico and West Texas. Extending some 135 miles from the Lane Processing plant to the Waha Hub in West Texas, the newbuild pipeline brings an incremental 1.35 Bcf/d in flow capacity to the core of the Delaware Basin. Double E will receive gas from at least seven processing facilities, including six in New Mexico and one in Texas, with its strategic location placing it within proximity of some 20 to 25 other processing plants. For capacity holders, the pipeline offers expanded access to West Texas' benchmark Waha Hub with interconnectivity to key downstream pipelines, including Kinder Morgan's Gulf Coast Express and Permian Highway Pipelines to East Texas as well as the Trans Pecos Pipeline to the Texas-Mexico border. The project, a 70-30 joint venture among Summit Midstream Partners and ExxonMobil subsidiary XTO Energy, already has a substantial majority of its throughput capacity underpinned by 10-year take-or-pay volume commitments — 750 MMcf/d of which is currently held by JV partner XTO Energy. The startup of the Double E Pipeline this month comes just as oil and gas prices in West Texas are surging, fueling renewed interest in exploration, drilling, and production in the Permian. In the past 12 weeks, benchmark WTI oil prices have climbed to over $80/b, up from just $68 to $69/b in late August. Over the same period, gas prices at Waha have jumped to an average of $4.70/MMBtu this month — up from late-summer levels in the mid- to upper $3s/MMBtu, S&P Global Platts data shows. After flattening out during the peak summer months, rig counts in Texas and New Mexico are again on the rise, reaching a 19-month high at 272 as of the week ended Nov. 10. Compared with year-ago levels, the Permian Basin rig count rose more than 65%, Enverus data shows. On recent third-quarter earnings calls, midstream companies, including Enterprise Products Partners, Plains All American, MPLX, Magellan Midstream, and NuStar Energy, reported rising crude and liquids volumes in the Permian Basin with a bullish outlook in Q4 and beyond. On its own quarterly earnings call, natural gas midstream giant Kinder Morgan also reported an uptick in transport volumes out of West Texas driven in part by high utilization on its Permian Highway Pipeline. In November, Permian gas production has averaged just over 13.7 Bcf/d — up 400 MMcf/d from last month and about 700 MMcf/d higher compared with November 2020. According to the most recent forecast from S&P Global Platts Analytics, total gas production from West Texas could surpass 14 Bcf/d by Q1 2022.
EOG's Permian, Eagle Ford Production Ready to Supply Gulf Coast Export Projects - Houston-based EOG Resources Inc., one of the Lower 48’s biggest oil and natural gas producers, is looking to give back to shareholders instead of boosting volumes, with discipline still the mantra going into 2022. The independent delivered better-than-expected natural gas, oil and liquids production during 3Q2021, along with sharply higher profits, CEO Ezra Yacob said during a conference call to discuss results. Yacob took the helm last month after working for the Minerals Division at the U.S. Geological Survey. “EOG has never been in better shape,” he told investors. “We extended our track record of reliable execution with better-than-expected production, capital expenditures, operating costs and product prices…. “Our high-return business model is sustainable for the long term, underpinned by a deep inventory of double premium drilling locations…We also remain optimistic about the potential of new exploration plays to improve the overall quality of our inventory.” Boosting production in light of higher commodity prices is not yet on the table, though. For EOG, there are no plans to grow “until the market clearly needs the barrels.” Growth is going to depend on “market fundamentals, not price,” in 2021 and beyond. EOG is looking for signs of low spare capacity and oil demand recovering to pre-pandemic levels. The plan for now is to maintain oil production at 440,000 b/d, which would be below third quarter results.
Exclusive: Exxon launches sale of shale gas properties in Texas (Reuters) - Exxon Mobil on Monday launched a sale of its oil and gas properties in the first major U.S. shale field, a spokesperson confirmed, as part of a portfolio reshuffling to focus on more lucrative assets. The top U.S. oil producer set a goal three years ago of raising $15 billion from asset sales, and put several U.S. and international assets on the market as energy prices have recovered from the pandemic-induced slump. It will open a data room on Thursday for its Barnett Shale holdings that include 2,700 wells across about 182,000 acres in North Texas, home of the first horizontally drilled shale wells. Exxon spokesperson Sarah Nordin confirmed the sale process. Production operations will continue normally during the marketing process, Nordin said. There has been no agreement reached on a sale and no buyer was identified, she said. The producing properties are valued at between $400 million and $500 million, according a person familiar with the matter. U.S. gas prices are up 75% year to date, settling at $5.01 per million British thermal units on Monday. Bids are due Dec. 21 and Exxon aims to close any sale in January. The properties' shale gas production has declined by half since 2016, to around 227 million cubic feet per day (mcfd) in the first half of this year, according to a marketing document seen by Reuters. The wells were among natural gas properties Exxon last year said it wanted to sell. It put about 5,000 natural gas wells in the Fayetteville Shale in Arkansas on the block in August. Exxon, which suffered a historic $22.4 billion loss in 2020, is selling assets in Asia, Africa and Europe as it as focuses on production ventures in Guyana, offshore Brazil and the Permian Basin.
Oil production at biggest U.S. shale field set to hit new record (Reuters) — Crude oil production from the Permian Basin, the largest U.S. oil field, is set to surpass its pre-pandemic record in December, a swift turnaround that has not been replicated in the country’s other oil regions. Oil output from the Permian, located in Texas and New Mexico, is forecast to reach a record 4.953 million barrels per day (bpd) in December, as output has come back with the surge in economic demand. The Permian is the primary driver of U.S. output, but its percentage of U.S. overall production is even more than at the end of 2019, when the United States was producing 13 million barrels a day. December’s forecast production will surpass the previous record of 4.913 million bpd set in March 2020, according to a monthly forecast from the U.S. Energy Information Administration. U.S. total oil output dropped by more than 2 million barrels a day in 2020 due to coronavirus-induced demand destruction. Production has returned gradually, with numerous other oil fields, such as the Bakken in North Dakota, still far from their peak production levels. “Permian Basin wells tend to be the most prolific wells compared to other basins, so if you have more limited capital, you would go there first,” said Andrew Lipow, president of consultancy Lipow and Associates in Houston. The Permian’s importance is augmented by its proximity to major pipeline hubs and connections to export centers, making it more advantaged than other basins. Overall shale production across seven major shale regions is forecast to rise by 85,000 bpd to 8.316 million bpd, with the bulk of the increase seen in the Permian, where output is expected to rise 67,000 bpd. Gas production from the seven shale regions is expected to rise 0.2 billion cubic feet per day to 89.4 bcf/d in September.
Top Texas oil and gas regulators face allegations of conflicts of interest, as they can profit from the industries they oversee | TPR – (public radio podcast 39: 24) - The Texas Railroad Commission is responsible for overseeing the state’s oil and natural gas development, coal and uranium mining and the natural gas utility services.A series of new reports alleges that commissioners’ close ties to and investments in the industry they are charged with regulating creates conflicts of interest, and the agency’s policies don’t do enough to prevent such “regulatory capture.”According to the third in a series of report from state-agency watchdog groups, “at least one commissioner owns direct stakes in oil and gas companies that the Railroad Commission regulates.”On Nov. 10, the three-member commission voted unanimously to advance the “securitization” of debt amassed when gas prices spiked during February’s winter storm. This means the $3.4 billion owed to natural gas companies will be passed along to Texas energy consumers, who could see an increase in their monthly bills for up to 30 years.Why was this decision made and how could it affect ratepayers? What changes have been implemented or proposed to prevent a repeat of the February fallout? Why are certain entities being allowed to file for exemptions from new infrastructure winterization requirements?How effective is the Railroad Commission at regulating oil and gas in Texas? Do the agency’s current policies allow its top regulators to prioritize industry interests and personal profit over the public good?What role have industry campaign contributions to commissioners played in their decision-making about those very industries? What reforms could be implemented to prevent conflicts of interest and ethical breaches in the future? Does the political will exist to do so?
US oil, gas rig count jumps 11 on week to 683; Permian sees double-digit growth - The US oil and gas rig count jumped 11 to 683 in the week ending Nov. 17, Enverus said, with the Permian Basin of West Texas/New Mexico posting an even larger increase in rig activity. The domestic oil rig count rose by 16 to 541 for the week ended Nov. 17, while the natural gas-directed count fell back five to 147. The Permian, the largest US producing basin at 4.78 million b/d of oil and a 13.4 Bcf/d of gas, according to S&P Global Platts Analytics, added 12 rigs for a total of 284, reaching its highest count since mid-April 2020. Also growing was the SCOOP-STACK in Oklahoma, which climbed three to 41 rigs. The rig count in the play is back to a pre-pandemic level last seen in the first week of March 2020. Most US basins had little to no rig count changes. The Bakken Shale of North Dakota/Montana ticked up one to 32 rigs, on par with its early-November 2021 figure. That single rig add restored the play’s rig count to its highest level since the week ended April 22, 2020. The count was unchanged in the Marcellus Shale (33 rigs), sited mostly in Pennsylvania/West Virginia; the DJ Basin (16 rigs), chiefly in Colorado; and the Utica Shale (12 rigs), mostly in Ohio. Two basins lost rigs. The Eagle Ford Shale in South Texas was down two to 53, while the Haynesville Shale of East Texas/Northwest Louisiana shed one rig for a total 51. Commodity prices fell for a second week, but remained relatively high. According to Platts Analytics, WTI averaged $80.48/b, down $1.02 for the week; WTI Midland averaged $80.79/b, down 98 cents; and Bakken Composite averaged $79.16/b, down $1.37. For natural gas, Henry Hub prices averaged $4.85/MMBtu, down 38 cents; and prices at Dominion South averaged $4.29/MMBtu, down 14 cents.
Biden to propose 20-year new drilling ban near sacred tribal site in New Mexico - The Biden administration on Monday announced that it will propose a 20-year ban on new mining and oil and gas drilling in the area surrounding Chaco Canyon — a New Mexico site with significance to Native American tribes. The Interior Department said Monday that it will propose making lands surrounding Chaco Canyon, which itself is already protected as a National Historical Park, ineligible for new oil and gas leasing or new mining claims. The move, which the administration described as creating a 10-mile buffer around the park, will not impact existing leases and claims. Instead, the Bureau of Land Management will seek to make sure that development that occurs through these allowances does so in manners that “avoid or minimize” impacts to protected areas. “Chaco Canyon is a sacred place that holds deep meaning for the Indigenous peoples whose ancestors lived, worked, and thrived in that high desert community,” Interior Secretary Deb Haaland said in a statement. A fact sheet previewing this event noted that area Pueblos and other tribes have expressed concerns about oil and gas development in particular threatening sacred and cultural sites over the course of the last decade.
In Response To Soaring Gas Prices, Biden Orders FTC To "Immediately" Probe "Illegal Conduct" By Oil & Gas Companies -Commenting on perhaps the most absurd moment of the Xi-Biden virtual summit, which as we learned last last night, was the US president begging China to release oil from its strategic petroleum reserve (ostensibly because due to opposition by Democrats in the US such as top House Democrat Steny Hoyer, Biden can't do that), Rabobank's Michael Every said that it was "an odd power dynamic when one is a massive energy exporter, and the other a massive energy importer."Alas, it does not appear that China will rush to comply with Biden's demands, and with gasoline soaring and becoming a major political headache for the Democrats ahead of the midterms...... Biden, or rather his handlers, are now scrambling to come up with ways to push gas prices lower.We got the latest lightbulb moment from the administration this morning, when moments ago Biden sent a letter to FTC Chair Lina Khan to call attention to "mounting evidence of anti-consumer behavior by oil and gas companies" alleging that he won't accept "hard-working Americans paying more for gas because of anti-competitive or potentially illegal conduct."It wasn't clear what if any evidence was "mounting."“I do not accept hard-working Americans paying more for gas because of anti-competitive or otherwise potentially illegal conduct,” Biden said, claiming that "gasoline prices at the pump remain high, even though oil and gas companies' costs are declining" and ordered asked the FTC to "consider illegal conduct" which is costing families at the pump, urging the FTC to "immediately" use "all tools" to examine price wrongdoing. No "proof" of any wrongdoing was provided either, although we are confident that Igor Danchenko is busy creating a dossier full of "evidence" to buttress Biden's case.The letter goes on to suggest that while "prices at the pump correspond to movements in the price of unfinished gasoline, which is the main ingredient in the gas people buy at the gas station. But in the last month, the price of unfinished gasoline is down more than 5 percent while gas prices at the pump are up 3 percent in the same period.
Schumer presses Biden to tap oil reserves to lower gas prices - Senate Majority Leader Charles Schumer (D-N.Y) urged the Biden administration on Sunday to make use of emergency petroleum reserves in an effort to lower gas prices ahead of the holiday season. "We're here today because we need immediate relief at the gas pump and the place to look is the Strategic Petroleum Reserve," Schumer said during a press conference in New York on Sunday, according to Reuters. "No industry is spared. But fuel gasoline is the worst of all," Schumer said of the ongoing supply chain disruptions. "Let's get the price of gas down right now. And this will do it."But analysts have said that making use of the reserves would provide only a short-term solution and wouldn't increase the country's production capabilities, Reuters reported.While Biden has not committed to tapping the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve, which is located in caverns on the coasts of Texas and Louisiana, Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm has said he's considering it. “That's one of the tools that he has, and he's certainly looking at that,” Granholm said last weekend on CNN. Granholm also said that she was hopeful gas prices would not reach an average of $4 per gallon soon, noting that the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries was “controlling the agenda.”Last week, average gas prices in the U.S. fell to $3.41 per gallon, down one cent from the previous week but up more than $1 from the same time last year.
How A Biden SPR Release Will Send Oil Prices Even Higher In 2022 Bloomberg is out with a surprisingly objective article titled "Biden’s Remedy for High Gasoline Prices: Blame Oil Companies" which echoes what we said yesterday, yet which does not address the elephant in the room, namely that while Biden is (of course) scapegoating someone for his own failures, the solution remains just one: some form of SPR release or "volume exchange" (as JPM explained yesterday).There is just one problem: at this point an SPR release - which has been fully priced in - would send oil prices higher.As Goldman's commodity strategist Damien Courvalin explains, while such a release would provide a short-term fix to a structural deficit, "it is now fully priced-in" following the $6/bbl move lower in recent weeks, which are pricing in a release of more than 100 mb into OECD stocks, and - worst of all - would not help the slow global supply response that only higher oil prices can overcome. In fact, according to Courvalin, "if such a release is confirmed and manages to keep oil prices depressed in the context of low trading activity into year-end, it would create clear upside risks to our 2022 price forecast."Below we excerpt from Courvalin's note which we urge all those who write Biden's daily agenda and speeches to read before they commit another inflationary disaster.The White House consideration of an SPR release had already pushed Brent down by $4/bbl in recent weeks, with the potential participation of China likely behind the latest additional $2/bbl sell-off that occurred yesterday (November 17). On Goldman's pricing model, the $6/bbl move lower since late October is already pricing a release of well over 100 mb into DM stocks (assuming in fact that rising COVID cases have further exacerbated the recent move lower).
U.S. shale has a message for the Biden administration: Ask us to increase oil production, not OPEC - The chief executive of U.S. oil company Occidental Petroleum said that it would have been preferable if the Biden administration had asked shale producers closer to home to increase production and crude supplies, rather than the OPEC alliance that's led by Saudi Arabia.Asked whether President Joe Biden and his team were getting it wrong by asking OPEC to pump more when there are shale oil producers at home, CEO Vicki Hollub said that "if I were gonna make a call, it wouldn't be long distance, it would be a local call.""And I think that we could do it cheaply in the United States, as other countries can do," she told CNBC's Hadley Gamble at the Adipec energy industry forum in Abu Dhabi on Monday."I think first you, you stay home, you ask your friends, and you ask your neighbors to do it. And then if we can't do it, you call some other countries," she said.Hollub's comments come after a period of dramatic energy price rises in recent months that led to the White House calling on OPEC and its oil-producing allies, a group known as OPEC+, to boost production in an effort to combat climbing gasoline prices.The move came amid heightened worries that rising inflation could derail the economic recovery from Covid-19.The White House said that the oil producing group's July agreement to boost production by 400,000 barrels per day on a monthly basis beginning in August and stretching into 2022 is "simply not enough" during a "critical moment in the global recovery."U.S. Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm repeated those words to CNBCearlier this month, saying that oil-producing nations needed to increase supply "at this moment so that people will not be hurt during the winter months."It was also put to Granholm that domestic oil production in the U.S. had abated over the last couple of years, even prior to the Covid pandemic, due to a lack of investment incentives."I don't know why at $80 a barrel those incentives are not there," she said."During Covid, it was down — they backed off because demand was not there because people were staying home, we know that. Now that things are back up, the production should be meeting that [demand], there has been rigs that have been added but not fully," she added.
Security for August State Capitol pipeline protest cost $1.6M - State officials spent nearly $1.6 million on security during a series of Enbridge Line 3 pipeline protests at the Minnesota State Capitol in August.A Department of Public Safety spokesman said the department spent $1.46 million on salaries, meals and lodging for State Capitol security personnel during the payroll period that included four days of demonstrations on the Capitol grounds.A spokesman for the Department of Administration added that it cost $99,738 to erect and later remove a new temporary security fence and concrete barriersaround the State Capitol building ahead of the August "Treaties Not Tar Sands" events.A blog called Healing Minnesota Stories first reported on the costs.Gov. Tim Walz and Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan defended the security measures at the time as part of the state's "obligation to protect public safety and public property" while ensuring people can exercise their First Amendment rights.Genna Mastellone, an organizer for the rally, called the police presence in August "excessive" and said "seeing the amount of money the state spent in total is shocking now.""Instead of meeting Indigenous climate leaders and activists with a willingness to discuss the harmful Line 3 tar sands pipeline, our state's leadership responded with a threatening show of force," Mastellone said.
North Dakota oil production ticks up in September to 1.113 million b/d | S&P Global Platts - North Dakota oil production grew in September, albeit by just 0.5% month on month, according to state Department of Mineral Resources data released Nov. 16.The state pumped 1.113 million b/d of crude, in August, Lynn Helms, the DMR's director of oil and gas, said during the state's monthly production press webinar."Oil prices are very, very strong," Helms said. He noted that September's North Dakota realized market price was just under $66/b, and on Nov. 16 it is close to $78/b.For natural gas, the state produced 3.015 Bcf/d in September, up 1.8% on the month, Helms said.And although North Dakota lost a rig on average in September to 27, down by one on the month, it gained two rigs in October moving to 29, according to DMR data.But on Nov. 16, 34 rigs were working in the state, the monthly DMR report said.Helms noted the US Energy Information Administration, which tracks rig productivity from drilling rigs in US basins, shows the Bakken has double the productivity of a rig in the New Mexico Permian, where wells have more water production.Also in the Bakken, when fracturing interference occurs while drilling an infill well, "it makes the wells better," while it's "the other direction in New Mexico," he said. On the permitting front, 69 drilling permits were issued in the state in September but only 37 in October, Helms said, a total "inadequate to sustain or grow our production" The low number may be a glitch in the switchover of the state's new electronic filing system, Helms said, adding that late last month and in the first half of November "a lot of permits were being approved."
North Dakota's Bakken Natural Gas, Oil Production Rises in September -Oil and natural gas production in North Dakota, home to the Bakken Shale, rose in September over August. Department of Mineral Resources (DMR) director Lynn Helms issued the monthly Director’s Cut on Tuesday, which provides information about all of the wells capable of producing, as well as permit activity. Natural gas production in September averaged 3.02 Bcf/d, according to DMR. This compares to 2.96 Bcf/d in the previous month. Gas capture also improved in September, when it hit 94%, compared to 92% in the previous month. North Dakota has set a gas capture goal to keep flaring/venting at 8% of production or less. Helms said the 94% figure was “good news,” but October was a “tough month with three weeks of downtime on the Northern Border Pipeline. So October could be a downer.” Helms added that “we’re back into that mode where natural gas production is growing much more than oil.” Oil production also rose month/month to 1.113 million b/d, from 1.017 million b/d in August. The Bakken and Three Forks formations made up 96% of the production figure. Dakota Light Sweet oil averaged $73.75/bbl, versus $60.94 in August. “Oil prices are very, very strong,” Helms said. The rig count, meanwhile, continues to rise from the hit it took last year. As of Tuesday, the North Dakota rig count stood at 34, compared to an average of 27 in September. Helms noted that the rig count is the best it has been since the pandemic hit in the state. Based on a preliminary estimate, 17,041 wells were producing in September, an all-time state high. Thirty-four wells also were completed in September, down by 13 month/month. Permits issued to drill fell in September to 69 from 79, Helms noted. In October, the state issued 37 permits to drill. Helms said the October figure is “inadequate” to grow and sustain production.
Bakken Shale natural gas flaring reaches historical low as production climbs --Natural gas flaring in North Dakota's Bakken Shale has reached a new record low, according to state data, and new infrastructure slated to enter service soon could push gas production in the play above pre-pandemic volumes. Flaring of associated natural gas produced in North Dakota's Bakken has fallen to 6%, according to the latest data released by the North Dakota Industrial Commission. Gross gas production in the state has now crossed 3 Bcf/d, only about 100 MMcf/d of the all-time high reached in November 2019. The state's oil production, however, is at 1.1 million b/d, which is 400,000 b/d below the all-time high, also reached in November 2019. The impending completion of WBI Energy Transmission's North Bakken Expansion natural gas pipeline project is likely to increase the Bakken's ability push more gas to Northern Border Pipeline for ultimate delivery downstream in the Midwest. While the project will increase access to prolific Williston Basin production, it could also reduce flaring. Once the expansion is completed, a milestone the company anticipates in December, the added takeaway could be put to the test as production spikes in the region. Construction is already well underway on the 92.5-mile, 250 MMcf/d project in the northwest corner of North Dakota after the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission approved the project June 1. According to WBI Energy Transmission's company website, facilities are expected to go into service sometime in December. The proposed route runs through McKenzie County, which produced over 1.44 Bcf/d in summer 2021, up from 1.18 Bcf/d the summer prior, according to S&P Global Platts Analytics. The WBI system plays a vital role for the Williston Basin in bringing much of the play's gas to market in the Midwest. This past summer, WBI carried 1.07 Bcf/d in total to other interconnecting pipelines, of which nearly 1 Bcf/d was put on Northern Border. Northern Border generally runs at or near capacity and is essentially the only outlet for Bakken gas. Bakken volumes typically price off AECO and compete for line space with Western Canadian supply heading east along Northern Border. At 1 Bcf/d this summer, WBI deliveries to Northern Border were up more than 140 MMcf/d from summer 2020 at an all-time high. WBI deliveries accounted for 56% of the Bakken supply pumped on Northern Border, according to Platts Analytics. This increase supported Bakken gas in gaining even more Northern Border space. Bakken averaged a summer record 74% share of the space on Northern Border, up two points from summer 2020. Considering WBI's expansion and its route, it is possible Bakken's share of Northern Border will increase by as much as the added 250 MMcf/d by summer 2022, as production returning from the coronavirus pandemic has been met with an inability to get to a processing plant.
Work on gas plant project to resume in McKenzie County -- Work is resuming in McKenzie County on a natural gas processing plant project delayed in 2020 by the coronavirus pandemic. Oneok announced this week that it will complete the project known as Demicks Lake III, an expansion of the company's processing facilities near Watford City. The company expects work at the site to wrap up during the first quarter of 2023. The new plant will have the capacity to handle 200 million cubic feet of gas per day. It will bring the company's total gas processing capacity across the Williston Basin to 1.9 billion cubic feet per day, which could accommodate about two-thirds of all gas produced in North Dakota. The project is expected to cost $140 million. An uptick in oil and gas activity in the Bakken and higher demand for gas and natural gas liquids were factors in Oneok's decision to resume the project, President Pierce Norton II said. The company also is restarting work on a natural gas liquids facility in Texas. Natural gas liquids refer to products such as ethane, propane and butane that are separated from raw gas. "Demicks Lake III will support producer development plans in the core of the Williston Basin while continuing our commitment to help customers reduce natural gas flaring," Norton said, referring to the wasteful burning off of excess gas.
North Dakota leaders to make plan for $150M pipeline grant fund - Pipeline developers are eyeing the $150 million pot of grant money North Dakota lawmakers set aside last week for expanding natural gas service, but it will be a few weeks before it’s clear how state leaders plan to proceed with distributing the funds. “There’s a tremendous amount of interest,” North Dakota Pipeline Director Justin Kringstad said. “We will have to come up with an appropriate method at the Industrial Commission to get that process ironed out.” The three-member Industrial Commission next meets Nov. 29, and Kringstad said he expects the panel chaired by Gov. Doug Burgum will offer guidance then as to the state’s application process, timeline and expectations for projects. It’s anticipated $10 million will go toward building a short pipeline that taps into a larger line running through western Minnesota to bring gas to an industrial site in Grand Forks. The remaining $140 million could go toward a pipeline transporting gas from western North Dakota’s Bakken oil fields to the eastern part of the state, a project that could cost an estimated $1 billion. The grant money stems from the allocation awarded to North Dakota under the American Rescue Plan Act, a federal stimulus program designed to help states emerge from the coronavirus pandemic.
Close to 20,000 gallons of oilfield contaminants spill in Bowman County - A mixture of about 6,300 gallons of crude oil and 12,600 gallons of produced water spilled Monday at a well site in southwest North Dakota, escaping the well pad and flowing about 1,500 feet through a nearby drainage path. — A substantial amount of mixed oil and produced water spilled at a wellsite in Bowman County on Monday, Nov. 15, escaping the well pad and flowing about 1,500 feet through a nearby drainage area. The contaminants flowed through the dry drainage path before spreading out into a flat and open space, according to an incident report filed to the North Dakota Department of Environmental Quality Monday. The oil well's operator, Denbury Onshore, has isolated the well and dug berms to stop further spread of the spill. The mixture, known as emulsion, contained about 6,300 gallons of crude oil and 12,600 gallons of produced water, according to the indecent report. The cause of the spill is under investigation. Cleanup is ongoing, and no waterways were impacted by the spill, according to the report. Bill Seuss, a spill investigator with the Department of Environmental Quality, said because of the remote location of the incident, respondents are bringing in equipment to build a temporary roadway to access the contaminated site.
Line 3 opponents plan flyover with thermal imaging of pipeline - Indigenous opponents of Line 3 are raising money to fly a drone with thermal imaging equipment along the oil pipeline's Minnesota route to see for themselves whether there are more drilling fluid spills or groundwater problems.Thermal imaging is a new direction for the Indigenous-led Line 3 opposition. It comes as state environmental regulators investigate whether construction crews damaged aquifers at two locations along the Line 3 route, in addition to the major aquifer breach in Clearwater County for which energy company Enbridge has been fined. The state's latest estimates are that the breach has spilled about 50 million gallons of groundwater, up from previous estimates of around 24 million gallons."I've ridden the whole line on horseback pretty much, but I never took that bird's eye view," said Winona LaDuke, co-founder of Honor the Earth. "I think it's going to show more damage than anybody knows. It's a crime that's underway."The flyover project will cost an estimated $52,000. The group said it wants to get underway very soon.Enbridge's controversial Line 3 replacement pipeline is complete now and transports Canadian tar sands crude oil across northern Minnesota to Superior, Wis. The company, which says it's doing what's required and cooperating with regulators, faces potential criminal charges for puncturing the Clearwater County aquifer.State regulators ordered the company to pay $3.3 million for that accident, which the Canadian company didn't report to the state for months, and to close up the free-flowing artesian well it created.The accident happened at a major pipeline junction called the Clearbrook Terminal near the town of Clearbrook, Minn. Enbridge has been moving in large equipment there to inject tons of grout into the ground to try to seal off the broken aquifer. The outflow endangers a nearby calcareous fen complex, a protected delicate wetland area fed by groundwater from the same aquifer.The matter was sent to the Clearwater County Attorney for potential criminal charges. But shortly after Enbridge missed a 30-day deadline in October to fix the rupture, the county forwarded the investigatory reports to the state Attorney General for potential prosecution. Enbridge had to pay an additional $40,000 for wasting more groundwater.The attorney general's office said it doesn't confirm or deny investigations.Counties often forward complex cases that outstrip local resources, but the move also could indicate Enbridge faces more serious charges.Attorney General Keith Ellison has indicated his willingness to take on oil companies. Last year he sued ExxonMobil, Koch Industries and the American Petroleum Institute, alleging they deliberately misled the public for decades about the effects of burning fossil fuels on climate change.Meanwhile, both the Minnesota Department of Natural Resources (DNR) and the Minneapolis Pollution Control Agency (MPCA) say they are investigating other potential violations during Line 3 construction. They said that air imaging will be part of monitoring the wetland restoration work through 2026.The MPCA is investigating the 28 drilling fluid spills it made public in August. Enforcement actions aren't expected until early 2022.The DNR, which controls groundwater, is still investigating whether Enbridge crews punctured aquifers at two other unidentified sites.LaDuke and others involved with the flyover project are not convinced. They fear both the Mississippi River and protected groundwater resources have been gravely harmed.Bemidji resident Ron Turney, a White Earth citizen who has documented Line 3 construction impacts with cameras and a drone, has published many images of the site on his Facebook page and the Indigenous Environmental Network website. He also aired them during a panel on Line 3 that was broadcast recently from the U.N. climate change summit in Glasgow, Scotland.His pictures show muddied and rust-colored water welling up on either side of the river, some of it with an oily sheen, held back from the Mississippi by sandbags. LaDuke described them "scary as heck."
Petition asks Walz, Ellison to drop Line 3 protest charges - (KFGO) – An online petition asking Gov. Tim Walz and Minnesota Attorney General Keith Ellison to drop all criminal charges against hundreds of demonstrators arrested in connection with the Line 3 pipeline protests in northern Minnesota has collected more than 14,000 signatures. Organizers say the charges are based on “brutal policing tactics,” the violation of treaty rights, and the project’s contribution to “catastrophic climate change.” “It’s entirely wrong that Enbridge, a foreign oil corporation, has committed egregious crimes against the water and people, yet it’s us who are being prosecuted” according to Honor the Earth Executive Director Winona LaDuke. “Every day that pipeline is in operation, Minnesotans are in danger. It must be shut down, and all charges against Water Protectors must be dropped. ” Over 1,000 people were arrested during the pipeline’s construction. Petition organizers say over 100 people were charged with “trumped-up felonies” including “bogus theft charges.”
An Urgent Call on Line 5 - by Doomberg – Doomberg One curious thing you notice as you drive around the Upper Peninsula (UP) of Michigan is just how many homes have giant propane tanks in their yards. Able to hold 400 gallons and usually painted white, these unsightly cylinders dot the landscape with surprising regularity. Indeed, more homes in Michigan use propane for heat than any other state in the country. This is especially pronounced in the Upper Peninsula (UP), where residential propane has a market penetration exceeding 25% in some counties. With 20 feet of snow a possibility, how one heats their home becomes a viscerally important thing. As it turns out, propane in Michigan is at the center of a titanic struggle between environmentalists and the fossil fuel industry, and the result of that struggle could substantially alter the course of our energy policy for decades to come. It is not an exaggeration to say the battle over Line 5 is the most important confrontation since the proposed Keystone Pipeline project – and most of you have probably never even heard of it. Line 5 is an oil pipeline that runs from Superior, Wisconsin to Sarnia, Ontario, passing through Michigan along the way. Constructed nearly 70 years ago by Bechtel, the pipeline is currently operated by Enbridge and has an excellent safety record. Day after day, it delivers 540,000 barrels of oil without incident – a mixture of synthetic crude, natural gas liquids, sweet crude, and light sour crude. To put this number into context, the US uses about 18 million barrels of oil a day in total. Half of Michigan’s and two-thirds of the UP’s propane needs are met by processing materials derived from Line 5. Line 5 is big and important. It is also extremely controversial. There are two main problems with Line 5. The first is that for a four-mile stretch it runs under the Straits of Mackinac, which connect Lake Michigan to Lake Huron. Should a catastrophic leak occur, the pipeline could contaminate priceless shorelines and potentially threaten the Great Lakes themselves, which hold some 20% of the total freshwater on earth. The second is that Enbridge had a significant (but unrelated) pipeline spill in Michigan back in 2010. Known as the Kalamazoo River oil spill, the incident resulted in significant local environmental damage. For a period of 17 hours, the company struggled to understand that a leak was even occurring, unwilling to believe what its own sensors were indicating. This slow response exacerbated the damage and crushed Enbridge’s credibility with local authorities. There’s a direct line from that incident to the major push by environmentalists to proactively shutter Line 5 today. Unlike opposition to the Keystone Pipeline, a project which was never completed, Line 5 is a preexisting critical artery of the North American energy infrastructure. This seems like an important precedent in the making. Here’s how RetireLine5.org frames the discussion: “Obviously, an oil spill in the Straits of Mackinac would be bad for our water and impact the 30 million people who depend on the Great Lakes for water. An oil spill could also devastate our economy. In less than 3 hours, a spill of 2,500,000 gallons (10% of what Line 5's daily capacity is), could reel a $6 billion blow to Michigan's economy. In addition to our drinking water and our economy, the 3,500 species which have habitats in the Great Lakes area would be impacted, too. It took Enbridge 17 hours to shut off the oil in Kalamazoo, so 3 hours to shut off Line 5 is a conservative estimate.
New angles emerge in controversy over Line 5 -- Crude oil continues to flow — for now — through Enbridge’s controversial pipeline that serves Toledo-area refineries, among others. But several officials agree that recent events in Washington and elsewhere have kickstarted more controversy, leaving both sides wondering what the long-term outlook is at a time in which climate change, access to clean water, and rising fuel prices have loomed large on the minds of many North Americans. The issue has become so touchy that even a hint of policy movement by the Biden Administration has a powder-keg effect, as one Toledo refinery official noted. Although White House Deputy Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre said at a Nov. 8 news conference that Mr. Biden has no plans to shut down the pipeline, the issue caught fire in the national media, with questions raised about what powers President Biden might have over Line 5. According to a whitehouse.gov transcript of that news conference, the Biden Administration’s upcoming talks with Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau should not be interpreted as a sign of disagreement. In October, Canada took the unprecedented move of invoking dispute resolution provisions of the 1977 Transit Pipelines treaty, in large part because of the ongoing feud Mr. Trudeau has had with Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer and Michigan Attorney General Dana Nessel over Line 5’s future. The latter two are fiercely determined to shut down the pipeline as a means of protecting the Great Lakes from a potentially catastrophic oil spill. Mr. Trudeau wants to keep the crude flowing, agreeing with others that the Enbridge plan to build a tunnel beneath the Straits of Mackinac offers sufficient protection. “We expect that both the U.S. and Canada will engage constructively in those negotiations,” Ms. Jean-Pierre said. “In addition to being one of the closest allies, Canada remains a key U.S. partner in energy trade, as well as efforts to address climate change and protect the environment.” She later added that an environmental impact statement the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers is doing on the potential impact of running two Line 5 replacement lines through such a tunnel “will help inform any additional action or position the U.S. will be taking on the replacement of Line 5.” Mr. Biden got drawn into the controversy because of Canada’s decision to invoke the treaty, which has never been done before. According to Reuters news service, Mr. Trudeau did that to help safeguard the pipeline and essentially force Mr. Biden into arbitration.At the same time, U.S. District Judge Janet Neff of the Western District of Michigan is being asked to rule on whether Ms. Whitmer had the authority to issue a cease-and-desist order last May.Enbridge has ignored the order, and the courts have allowed the pipeline to remain open pending the outcome of that case. Mr. Biden is in an awkward position because he supports high-paying union jobs but also wants to help America wean itself off fossil fuels to combat climate change,
Judge: Michigan's Line 5 shutdown case must stay in federal court - A federal judge has denied Michigan's request to move its lawsuit seeking the closure of Enbridge Energy's Line 5 pipeline back to state court, where it might have had better chances with a county judge. U.S. District Judge Janet Neff issued an order Tuesday denying the state's motion for remand, a decision that was a victory for Enbridge Energy and the government of Canada. Neff wrote that the case calls for the exercise of "substantial-federal-question jurisdiction" over the issues that the state's case covers. "...with Canada’s invocation of the dispute resolution provision in the 1977 Treaty, the federal issues in this case are under consideration at the highest levels of this country’s government," she wrote. "The federal issues are far from 'trivial' but raise vitally important questions that implicate the federal regulatory scheme for pipeline safety and international affairs." Enbridge said in a Tuesday statement Tuesday it was pleased with the decision and noted it had "asserted all along" the issue belonged before a federal judge. "This is both a federal and international law issue, and the federal court will now handle the case," company spokesman Ryan Duffy said. "Line 5 is vital, critical infrastructure which is operating safely and is in compliance with all applicable laws." Gov. Gretchen Whitmer's office said it was still committed "to getting the Line 5 dual pipelines out of the water as quickly as possible." "We have made our views here clear — Michigan’s sovereign rights and duties regarding the use of our own lands and the protection of our Great Lakes are matters that belong before the state courts of Michigan," Whitmer spokesman Bobby Leddy said. "We are still reviewing today’s ruling and order as we consider next steps." The National Wildlife Federation in a Tuesday statement said the ruling puts the Biden administration "squarely in the middle of the Line 5 debate."
Protesters call for shutdown of Enbridge's Line 5 as Biden tours GM plant — Protesters lined the street where President Joe Biden would pass on his way to tour the GM assembly plant, hoping he would hear their calls to shut down the controversial Enbridge oil pipelines. With slogans like "Enbridge kills" and "Let's not trash our home," dozens of organizers with the Oil & Water Don’t Mix coalition gathered on Edsel Ford Service Drive, across from the newly renamed General Motors Factory ZERO Detroit-Hamtramck Assembly Center, an electric vehicle plant that straddles both cities. Demonstrators were protesting Line 5, Enbridge Energy's 68-year-old pipeline in the Straits of Mackinac. Biden toured the plant Wednesday, touting his $1.2 trillion bipartisan Infrastructure bill and the importance of more spending to accelerate EV adoption. Protesters said they feared the damage a rupture in the decades-old pipelines would cause to residents' health, arguing it would pollute drinking and swimming water and damage the Great Lakes. "They put the pipe in in the '50s and it's been falling apart ever since then," said Wendy Case, 58, of West Bloomfield. "A line break ... would be devastating to both the Upper and Lower Peninsulas of Michigan, and just an environmental travesty." Enbridge spokesman Ryan Duffy said the pipeline in the Straits operates safely and said the company spends millions each year on upkeep. "There are millions of people and thousands of businesses on both sides of the border who are dependent on Line 5 to provide the fuel they need for heating, manufacturing, airplanes, roads and automobiles," said Duffy. "Line 5 is vital energy infrastructure on a daily basis to Michigan, other states in the region, and Canada’s two largest provinces." Gov. Gretchen Whitmer in November 2020 revoked Enbridge's easement in the Straits and ordered the pipelines shut down by May of this year. The Canadian company, backed by Canada's government, refused to comply without a court order. In October, the Canadian government formally invoked a 1977 treaty that officials said prevents the U.S. government or Michigan from disrupting the operation of the pipeline, pulling the Biden administration into the dispute over the pipeline's future. Biden and Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau will meet Thursday at the White House, where the pipeline is expected to be discussed.
Line 5 tunnel wouldn’t be finished until 2028, documents indicate - — Construction on a proposed utility tunnel under the Straits of Mackinac to house a rebuilt section of the Enbridge Line 5 oil pipeline would not likely finish until 2028, according to documents posted online by the state of Michigan in response to a lawsuit.Enbridge contractors would not start building what it calls the Great Lakes Tunnel until the first quarter of 2024, according to the documents, which push back the launch of a huge utility project the company had previously estimated would be entirely finished that year.The information is included in draft bidding documents the Michigan Department of Transportation (MDOT) disclosed this weekend after being sued on Nov. 10 by the National Wildlife Federation. The group accused MDOT in the Court of Claims of shielding construction details after it denied public records requests for the information.A 2024 start could push completion into 2028 or beyond. Enbridge spokesperson Ryan Duffy said the tunnel is projected to take approximately four years to build. The new construction start date has yet to be approved by the Mackinac Straits Corridor Authority (MSCA), which is overseeing tunnel planning and potential construction.“Project permitting continues to be the driver of project timing, and those permitting timelines continue to be drawn out,” said Duffy, via email. “Once we receive all permits, we are committed to start construction within the timeframe stated in the Tunnel Project Agreement with the State of Michigan.”Enbridge opponents — who have repeatedly questioned Enbridge’s timeframe and $500 million cost estimation on the project, as well as its overall necessity — say the delay demonstrates that the tunnel is not a viable solution to the oil spill threat posed by the existing 68-year-old pipeline, which Gov. Gretchen Whitmer ordered to be shut down last year.“This draws out the timeline considerably from what Enbridge is using to influence key decision-makers,” said Beth Wallace, an NWF Great Lakes campaigns manager. The tunnel “is really not an alternative,” Wallace said. “It’s an Enbridge proposal that’s a decade in the making and we have an urgent threat that we have to deal with now.” Wallace said NWF sued after the state denied its Freedom of Information Act request for Enbridge’s draft request for proposals (RFP) documents that detail the project to solicit bids from contractors. Wallace said MDOT told her group this summer it didn’t technically have the documents because they were housed on a private Enbridge server. According to an Oct. 6 memo from an MPSC consulting engineer, the state gained access to the documents in May “through Enbridge’s virtual data room.” The state has spent the summer and fall reviewing the bidding documents. Presently, plans include boring a 21-foot diameter pre-cast concrete tunnel under the Straits of Mackinac west of the Mackinac Bridge, starting from the Lower Peninsula near Mackinaw City. Enbridge has spent the past few years designing the project, studying the rock strata under the lake, acquiring land on either side of the straits and seeking permits to begin construction. The tunnel would include space for the pipeline, maintenance vehicles and third-party utility lines. To date, Enbridge has applied for tunnel permits from the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, the Michigan Public Service Commission (MPSC) and the Michigan Department of Environment, Great Lakes and Energy (EGLE).\
Proposed bill would stiffen penalties for anchor dragging in Straits of Mackinac -- A new state bill could heighten punishment for ships dragging anchor through the Straits of Mackinac, across the path of the underwater section of Line 5 pipeline. Michigan Rep. Rachel Hood, D-Grand Rapids, on Wednesday introduced legislation to criminalize ships deploying, dragging, or setting anchor and other gear through the straits – a misdemeanor charge with a possible one-year jail sentence – and establish up to a $10,000 fine. The bill also would create a maritime pilot approval process to decide which may navigate routes through the busy straits that connect Lakes Michigan and Huron.
Ignore the buzz, here's why Enbridge Line 5 won't likely close anytime soon - Anyone following recent national and international news about the Enbridge Line 5 pipeline could be forgiven for believing the pipeline might shutter any day now, with major implications for winter fuel prices. But a year since Governor Gretchen Whitmer ordered the pipeline shuttered over safety concerns, its future is no clearer today than it was then. Don’t expect that to change anytime soon. In reality, legal experts and even key Line 5 foes say, any decision about the pipeline’s fate is likely months or even years away. That means barring a dramatic change, Line 5 will keep pumping oil through the winter while judges, diplomats and regulators fight over how quickly the aging pipes must vacate the Straits, and whether Enbridge should build a tunnel to replace them. Michigan Radio’s Lester Graham and Bridge Michigan’s Kelly House set out to cut through recent political posturing and media speculation to provide some clarity on the dispute. Here’s what we found: Speculation has swirled about the pipeline’s fate since Politico reported earlier this month that the Biden administration is studying how a closure could affect regional fuel prices. That sparked a flurry of responses from politicians, including Republicans who panned Biden for what they saw as an indication that the administration might unilaterally order a shutdown. Until then, battles over the pipeline’s fate had played out exclusively at the state level. But Biden’s staff have since made clear that they’re merely following through on a study of the proposed Line 5 tunnel that the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers announced months ago. As for potential unilateral action to close the pipeline? “That is not something we are going to do,” said Karine Jean-Pierre, White House Deputy Press Secretary, during a press briefing last week. The statement came a month after the Canadian government invoked a 1977 treaty that, in part, bars the U.S. and Canada from stopping the flow of international pipelines like Line 5. Canada invoked the treaty in an effort to defend Enbridge, the country’s biggest oil company, from Whitmer’s quest to shut down the pipeline. That has forced the U.S. into forthcoming treaty talks, but Jean-Pierre told reporters that those talks “shouldn’t be viewed as anything more than that.” Biden officials have made it clear that they are not eager to wade into Whitmer’s legal dispute with Enbridge, which began a year ago after Whitmer ordered Enbridge to shutter the 68-year-old pipeline, calling it a “ticking time bomb” that poses an unacceptable risk of an oil spill in the Straits. Enbridge counter-sued, and ignored Whitmer’s May shutdown deadline. Six months later, the case has yet to begin in earnest. Only this week did U.S. District Court Judge Janet Neff decide which court should hear the dispute. Michigan had filed suit against Enbridge in state court, but Enbridge moved to remove it to federal court because, the company argued, pipeline regulation is fundamentally a federal concern. Neff sided with Enbridge, noting that the case raises major federal issues, both because Line 5 is now subject to a treaty dispute, and because it falls under the regulatory purview of the federal Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety Administration. In a pipeline debate that has been deeply partisan, there’s another important difference between the two venues: Michigan’s Western District federal court is packed with Republican appointees, while the state Supreme Court has a narrow majority of Democratic appointees. And, said Barry Rabe, a professor of public and environmental policy at the University of Michigan’s Ford School of Public Policy, federal courts tend to be more sympathetic to the authority of federal treaties. “I do tend to think that federal treaties, however obscure and minimally used to date, are very powerful policy tools and that federal courts are reluctant to give states authority to ignore or overturn treaties,” he said.
Canada's Montney Shale to Supply Low-Carbon Petrochemical Project in Alberta - A petrochemical plant recently announced, slated to be in service by 2026, could produce up to 200 metric tons/year of low-carbon blue ammonia and methanol using natural gas from the Montney Shale, officials said. Nova Calgary-based Northern Petrochemical Corp. (NPC), a private venture, is proposing to build the C$2.5 billion ($2 billion) project in the planned Greenview Industrial Gateway near Grande Prairie, 275 miles northwest of the Alberta capital in Edmonton. “This project will produce blue ammonia and methanol by utilizing the latest carbon capture and storage technologies to achieve a carbon-neutral process,” said NPC President Geoff Bury. Houston-based KBR Inc. was selected to provide engineering services and a license to use a new manufacturing process devised in partnership with UK petrochemical specialty firm Johnson Matthey. Blue ammonia is manufactured by synthesizing traditional ammonia using natural gas, with the emissions removed using carbon capture, utilization and storage. Alberta Premier Jason Kenney credited the project site selection to the province’s Alberta Petrochemical Incentive Program (APIP). To make Alberta competitive with the Gulf Coast, where most North American petrochemical projects are sited, APIP pays 12% of plant construction costs. The project could create up to 4,000 jobs during construction, which may begin in 2023. The project could employ 400 people full time. Kenney said the project “is about adding value to natural gas feedstock, in a net-zero emissions context, for products that are in massive demand around the world.” Production would serve markets overseas, initially traveling about 600 miles by rail to a British Columbia seaport for shipments to China, Japan and South Korea. Saudi Arabia Oil Co., better known as Aramco, completed a blue ammonia export pilot last September.. Aramco and Japan’s Institute of Energy Economics, in partnership with Saudi Basic Industries Corp., produced and shipped 40 tons of blue ammonia to Japan for use in zero-carbon power production. Among other companies working on blue ammonia is New Fortress Energy Inc. Earlier this year it formed a company dedicated to producing hydrogen and renewable fuels. A final investment decision on a blue ammonia production terminal is expected soon.
While oil prices are surging, Canadian crude is getting cheaper -Western Canadian heavy crude is getting cheaper again relative to the North American benchmark West Texas Intermediate (WTI), but it’s not for the usual pipeline-related reasons. The differential between Western Canadian Select (WCS), Canada’s primary heavy sour export crude blend, and WTI recently spiked to a pandemic-era high of US$21 per barrel after more than a year of tight spreads and relative stability. The WCS was trading at US$60.43 Thursday morning in contrast to the U.S. benchmark, which stood at US$80.79. However, WCS hasn’t only gotten cheaper in Alberta: it’s getting cheaper at the other end of the pipes — in Oklahoma and at the U.S. Gulf Coast as well — which reflects a broader quality-related headwind that we’re seeing across global crude differentials. This implied quality differential has widened from about US$4 per barrel to more than US$10 per barrel over recent months while the implied transportation differential has remained fairly steady at around US$7 per barrel. Volatile and crushing differentials have plagued the Western Canadian oil industry for much of the past decade. The relative value of WCS, like that of all crudes, is driven by a cocktail of factors related to the chemical make-up and geographic location of the barrel. Different grades of crude vary widely across multiple attributes, but the two main factors are the oil’s “gravity” or density (i.e., light, medium, or heavy) and its sulphur concentration (i.e., sweet or sour). Lighter barrels typically command a premium because they yield a higher proportion of more valuable petroleum products, like gasoline, with less expensive refining techniques. Sweet barrels are also typically preferred since many jurisdictions require that most of a crude’s sulphur content is removed before reaching consumers (because sulphur is nasty; see: acid rain, respiratory harm, etc.). WCS is an especially heavy, sour crude, which means that it will almost always be worth less than a light, sweet barrel like WTI. That relative value of WCS shifts over time alongside availability of and demand for different grades. All oil is priced at a specific location because transporting or storing crude is expensive and complicated. WCS is priced at an oil storage tank terminal in Hardisty, Alta. and WTI is priced nearly 2,200 kilometres away in Cushing, Okla., with the U.S. Gulf Coast refining hub another 800 kilometres further down the line (see map). This geographic reality, coupled with insufficient pipeline capacity, has been the traditional source of heartache for Western Canadian oil producers.
Trans Mountain pipeline shut down after severe rain, flooding in B.C - The Trans Mountain pipeline has been shut down temporarily due to widespread rains and flooding in British Columbia. Trans Mountain Corp. spokeswoman Ali Hounsell says the precautionary move was taken due to the flooding situation in the area of Hope, B.C. In addition, Hounsell says construction on the Trans Mountain expansion project has been temporarily halted in the Lower Mainland, Hope and Merritt regions due to prolonged rainstorms. The 1,500-kilometre Trans Mountain pipeline is Canada's only pipeline system carrying oil from Alberta to the West Coast. The pipeline has a capacity for 300,000 barrels per day. The Trans Mountain expansion project was approved by the federal government in 2019. The project will twin the existing pipeline, bringing its total capacity to 890,000 barrels per day. The Trans Mountain pipeline was purchased by the federal government in 2018. Trans Mountain Corp. is a federal Crown corporation, headquartered in Calgary.
Oil and gas will be in the global energy system 'for decades,' BP chief says - Oil giant BP is committed to tackling climate change, the company's CEO said, but he insisted that hydrocarbons such as oil and gas will have an ongoing role to play in the energy mix for years. "It may not be popular to say that oil and gas is going to be in the energy system for decades to come but that is the reality," BP's Chief Executive Bernard Looney told CNBC on Monday. "What I want us to do is to focus on the objective — and I wish we had less ideological positions and more focus on the objective — which in this case is to drive emissions down." He said that replacing coal with natural gas, thereby reducing carbon emissions, "has to be a good thing." "And then over time we will decarbonize that natural gas," he said, speaking to CNBC's Hadley Gamble at the ADIPEC energy industry forum in Abu Dhabi. BP's Looney highlighted that the International Energy Agency's "Net Zero" report in May noted that, in 2050, global oil supply "in the net zero pathway" would still amount to around 20 million barrels per day, "So any objective person ... is going to say that hydrocarbons have a role to play, the question then becomes: what do you do about that? And you try to produce those hydrocarbons in the best way possible," Looney added. Looney's comments come after the conclusion of the COP26 climate summit in Glasgow. Nearly 200 countries agreed to "phase down" coal use (rather than "phase out," with China and India insisting on the language change at the last minute), as well as to "phase out" fossil fuel subsidies and to improve financial support to low-income countries. 1
Shell Moves To UK, Drops 'Royal Dutch' In Share Structure Overhaul - Royal Dutch Shell is asking shareholders to approve a proposal to drop its dual share structure and ‘Royal Dutch’ from its name as it looks to move its tax residence to the UK from the Netherlands and make its share structure simpler for investors to value and understand.Shell’s board of directors will ask shareholders to vote on December 10, 2021 to establish a single line of shares to eliminate the complexity of Shell’s A/B share structure and align Shell’s tax residence with its country of incorporation in the UK, where it will hold Board and Executive Committee meetings, and locate its chief executive and chief financial officer, the company said on Monday.Shell has been incorporated in the UK with Dutch tax residence and a dual share structure since the 2005 unification of Koninklijke Nederlandsche Petroleum Maatschappij and The Shell Transport and Trading Company under a single parent company. At the time of unification, it was never meant for the current A/B share structure to be permanent, Shell said.A simpler share structure is expected to accelerate distributions by way of share buybacks, as there will be a larger single pool of ordinary shares that can be bought back. “The simplification will normalise our share structure under the tax and legal jurisdictions of a single country and make us more competitive. As a result, Shell will be better positioned to seize opportunities and play a leading role in the energy transition,” Shell’s Chair, Sir Andrew Mackenzie, said in a statement.Shell, which has carried the “Royal” designation for more than 130 years, expects it will no longer meet the conditions for using the designation following the proposed change. Subject to shareholder approval, the company will be named Shell plc.“We are unpleasantly surprised by this news. The government deeply regrets that Shell wants to move its head office to the United Kingdom,” Stef Blok, Dutch Minister for Economic Affairs and Climate Policy, said, as carried by Bloomberg.
Belarus leader floats idea of cutting gas to Europe in migrant standoff - (Reuters) - Belarusian leader Alexander Lukashenko on Thursday raised the possibility he could shut down the transit of natural gas to Europe via Belarus in retaliation against any new European Union sanctions imposed over his country's handling of migrants. The EU on Wednesday accused Belarus of mounting a "hybrid attack" on the bloc by encouraging thousands of migrants fleeing poverty and war-torn areas to try to cross into Poland, and is gearing up to impose new sanctions on Minsk. Lukashenko, backed by close ally Russia, has dismissed the allegations and blamed the 27-nation bloc and the West for fuelling the crisis at his country's border with EU states. On Thursday, he raised the possibility of cutting off the Yamal gas pipeline that carries Russian gas across Belarus en route to Poland and Germany. "We are heating Europe, they are still threatening us that they will close the border. And if we shut off natural gas there?," Lukashenko said in comments published by the state news agency Belta. "Therefore, I would recommend that the Polish leadership, Lithuanians and other headless people think before speaking," he was cited as saying. Europe's gas market, where prices have hit record highs in recent weeks, would be highly sensitive to any interruption in the flow of Russian gas via Belarus. The EU has paved the way for new sanctions against Belarus as early as next week.
Despite Threats, Russian Gas Flows To Germany Increase Through Belarus- Despite threats by Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko last week that he could turn off the taps on the Yamal gas pipeline, German authorities report that flows have actually increased over the weekend, according to Reuters.. Lukashenko last week threatened to cut off the flow of gas along the Yamal pipeline in response to the EU threatening new sanctions against Belarus amid a migrant crisis on the Belarusian-Polish border. Russia's President Vladimir Putin, however, was quick to respond to the threat. Putin said Lukashenko had not consulted Moscow on the issue, and if he did, he risked a response from the Russian side. "I've recently spoken to (Lukashenko) twice, and he didn't mention this to me once. He didn't even hint," the Russian president said in a TV interview this weekend. "Of course, in theory, Lukashenko, as president of a transit country, could order our (gas) supplies to be cut to Europe. But this would mean a breach of our gas transit contract, and I hope this will not happen," Putin also said. "We provide heat to Europe, and they are threatening us with the border closure. What if we block natural gas transit?" Lukashenko said on Thursday, as quoted by Belarusian state news agency Belta.. The Belarusian statement has not been coordinated with Moscow in any way, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters on Friday. Belarus is an ally of Russia, but it is also a sovereign state, Peskov also said. "Russia remains a reliable energy supplier to Europe, regardless of the actions of Belarus," Peskov said, adding that "Russia's reliability as a supplier and partner in the current and future contracts cannot be called into question." The 2,000-km from Western Siberia to Germany has a capacity to transport close to 33 billion cu m of natural gas annually. It is one of the key gas arteries from Russia to Europe.
Europe’s first winter cold spell already straining natural gas supplies -- Europe is set to get its first cold spell of the winter season, putting the continent’s already scant energy supplies under pressure. Temperatures are set to drop starting next week, with parts of Italy forecast to experience weather as much as 2 degrees Celsius below normal. Southern France, Spain and Germany are also forecast to be colder-than-usual, according to The Weather Company. Centrica Plc, the U.K.’s top energy supplier, warned its 9 million customers to prepare for an icy blast that could last as long as six weeks. The region will be particularly sensitive to cold snaps in the coming months, with gas prices up for a second week after surging to records in October. Extra supplies promised by Russia have so far been negligible and Norwegian flows have been reduced because of heavy maintenance. “This is going to test the energy supplies across Europe,” said Tyler Roys, lead European forecaster at AccuWeather Inc. A high pressure system could also bring more northerly and colder air flows over central and southern Europe by the end of the month, said Carlo Cafaro, a senior research analyst and meteorologist at Marex. Benchmark gas prices are still almost four times higher than normal for this time of year sending electricity and European emission permits surging. Dutch month-ahead gas futures, the benchmark for Europe, rose 1.4% this week after climbing 14% last week. The cooler temperatures in the south will coincide with stormy weather over the Mediterranean with threats of flooding and mudslides, Roys said. This will bring big swings in wind generation, likely to drive price volatility even higher. November temperatures on the whole could end up being close to normal, but may still be cooler than the above-average levels for the past four years, according to Accuweather data. That could also impact gas storage levels as companies withdraw supplies to meet higher demand, already roaring back as economies recover from the pandemic.
European gas prices jump, rolling blackouts possible on new Nord Stream 2 delays -- European natural gas jumped to a three-week high on delays in starting up a controversial new pipeline from Russia. The German regulator said Tuesday it suspended the certification procedure for the Nord Stream 2 project because the operator of the pipeline decided to set up a German subsidiary, which will be the owner of the section of the pipeline in the country. The permitting process has been halted until assets and people are transferred to the new unit. Benchmark European gas prices surged as much as 12% after the announcement. While it’s not clear how the move changes the timing of the permissions, it adds to bullish developments in the energy-hungry market. Many in Europe expect Russia to significantly increase supplies only when the pipeline is approved. Adding to the current squeeze with the weather turning colder, gas flows from Norway, Europe’s second-biggest supplier after Russia, dropped by 10% on Tuesday due to an outage at the giant Troll field. China signaled it’s preparing for fuel shortages in some areas, meaning competition for LNG between Europe and Asia will remain intense. “We haven’t got enough gas at the moment quite frankly and we are not storing for the winter period,” said Jeremy Weir, chief executive officer of Trafigura Group said at a conference Tuesday. “There is a real concern potentially, if we have a cold winter, we could have rolling blackouts in Europe.” Fuel shipments from Gazprom PJSC have recovered after a slump at the start of this month but are still far below last year’s levels. The company signaled on Monday it has little appetite for increasing December gas volumes it transits through other territories into Europe. Dutch month-ahead gas was 9.7% higher at 87.69 euros a megawatt-hour as of 12:20 p.m. in Amsterdam. The U.K. equivalent gained 9.8% to 224.80 pence a therm. Prices have increased more than threefold this year as European inventories remain below normal after a prolonged winter last season. Besides lower Russian supplies, patchy domestic production and high Asian demand for liquefied natural gas have also contributed to the region’s energy crisis.
German agency suspends certification for Nord Stream 2 pipeline | News | DW - The controversial gas pipeline connecting Germany and Russia has been completed — but German officials have now blocked its certification process.Germany's network regulator suspended its ongoing process to certify the Nord Stream 2 pipeline after ruling that its operator within Germany does not comply with conditions set by German law. The decision could amount to another setback for the controversial pipeline that has been waiting to become operational for almost a year. Germany's Federal Network Agency said the operating company did not meet conditions to be an "independent transmissions operator," and it could be certified only "if that operator was organized in a legal form under German law." The suspension comes as the Switzerland-based company Nord Stream 2 AG plans to establish a subsidiary under German law, but only for the German section of the pipeline. This decision was taken instead of "transforming its existing legal form," the regulator said. The certification would stay suspended "until the main assets and human resources have been transferred to the subsidiary," the German officials added. Nord Stream 2 said it had been notified by the regulator and said, "We are not in the position to comment on the details of the procedure, its possible duration and impacts on the timing of the start of the pipeline operations." German Green party lawmaker Oliver Krischer welcomed the suspension by the regulator, saying that Gazprom had given the impression "of not taking German and European law seriously." The move will "significantly delay the launch of the pipeline, which is therefore unlikely to play a role this winter," he told Germany's Rheinische Post newspaper.
Germany Suspends Nord Stream 2 Certification - The Moscow Times - Germany’s energy regulator on Tuesday suspended the certification process for Russia’s Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline in the latest setback for the controversial project. The pipeline, which was completed earlier this year after months of delays and setbacks amid U.S. sanctions designed to thwart it, needs approval from German authorities before it can be put into use. The German regulator said it could not proceed with certification of the pipeline because Nord Stream 2 AG, the Gazprom-controlled company which owns the pipeline, is registered in Switzerland, not Germany. “Following a thorough examination of the documentation, the Bundesnetzagentur concluded that it would only be possible to certify an operator of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline if that operator was organised in a legal form under German law,” the regulator said in a statement Tuesday. Gazprom’s share price dropped 2% on the news, which comes as Europe faces a gas supply crunch, with Russia accused of withholding supplies in a bid to force approval for Nord Stream 2. Nord Stream 2 AG has agreed to set up a German subsidiary to govern the German part of the pipeline, the regulator said in its statement. “The certification procedure will remain suspended until the main assets and human resources have been transferred to the subsidiary.” Once that process is completed, the certification period will resume. Under German law, the regulator has four months to review documentation and make a decision on whether to approve the pipeline. It is the latest setback for Nord Stream 2, which has been beset with delays and hold-ups in recent years amid escalating tensions between Russia and the West.
Natural gas prices in Europe soar as Germany suspends approval for Nord Stream 2 pipeline - Natural gas prices in Europe soared again on Tuesday, November 16, 2021, as the German Federal Network Agency -- Bundesnetzagentur -- suspended the process of certifying the new Russian gas pipeline called Nord Stream 2.The pipeline was completed in September 2021 and is designed to bypass Ukraine and connect Russia directly to Germany. With about 40% of natural gas in EU coming from Russia, leading energy traders have warned of the risk of rolling blackouts in Europe in the event of a colder than average winter. In a statement issued today, Bundesnetzagentur said it would only be possible to certify an operator of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline if that operator was organized in a legal form under German law.1"Nord Stream 2 AG, which is based in Zug, Switzerland, has decided not to transform its existing legal form but instead to found a subsidiary under German law solely to govern the German part of the pipeline," the agency said in a statement. "This subsidiary is to become the owner and operator of the German part of the pipeline. The subsidiary must then fulfil the requirements of an independent transmission operator as set out in the German Energy Industry Act (sections 4a, 4b, 10 to 10e EnWG)."The certification procedure will remain suspended until the main assets and human resources have been transferred to the subsidiary and the Bundesnetzagentur is able to check whether the documentation resubmitted by the subsidiary, as the new applicant, is complete."When these requirements have been fulfilled, the Bundesnetzagentur will be able to resume its examination in the remainder of the four-month period set out in law, produce a draft decision and deliver it to the European Commission for an opinion, as provided for in the EU legislation on the internal market."European gas futures prices gained 10%, piling on the pain for businesses and households already paying much higher bills.2Natural gas prices have rocketed this year in Europe3, where gas plays an essential role in power generation and home heating.With about 40% of natural gas in EU coming from Russia, leading energy traders have warned of the risk of rolling blackouts in Europe in the event of a colder than average winter.The decision comes at a time of rising tension between the European Union and Russia over Ukraine and a migrant crisis on the Belarus-Poland border.
Germany's Nord Stream 2 gatekeeper: the long road until gas flows (Reuters) - Germany's energy regulator said on Tuesday it had suspended the certification process for the Nord Stream 2 pipeline to carry Russian gas to Europe and said the Swiss-based consortium needed to form a company under German law to get an operating licence. Europe's most controversial energy project, which is led by Russian gas giant Gazprom GAZP.MM , has faced resistance from the United States and Ukraine amongst others. Surging gas prices in Europe caused by a jump in global demand as the economy recovers from COVID-19, has led some government officials and industry to demand more Russian supplies. Prior to Tuesday's decision, the German regulator last month asked the pipeline operator, Swiss-based Nord Stream 2 AG, for assurances it would not break competition rules. Germany's Federal Network Agency - which regulates the country's electricity, gas, telecommunications, post and railway sectors - has until early January to come up with a recommendation on whether it will certify the pipeline that runs from Russia to Germany under the Baltic Sea. While technical requirements have been met, the sticking point is whether Gazprom will comply with European unbundling rules that require pipeline owners to be different from suppliers of gas flowing in them to ensure fair competition. The Nord Stream 2 operator says the rules are aimed at torpedoing the pipeline and in October scored a partial victory when an adviser to the European Union's top court recommended that Gazprom could challenge. The project's identically-sized sister pipeline, Nord Stream 1, has been exempt from unbundling rules since opening in 2011 because it was treated as an interconnector rather than as direct supplier.Once a three-member independent ruling committee at the network agency has made its recommendation it goes to the European Commission, which has another two months to respond. If both bodies are in agreement that the pipeline fulfils all regulatory requirements then certification can be issued relatively quickly, but if they aren't the process could be further delayed.
EU Gas Prices Soar On NS2 Delays, Sudden Belarus Pipeline Closure - European natural gas prices continue to soar after Nord Stream 2 pipeline delays were seen earlier this week, and now a major crude pipeline from Russia into Europe has temporarily halted flows due to "unscheduled repairs." The newest market generated information pushing up European natgas prices to the highest levels in a month is due to a Belarus portion of the Druzhba oil pipeline system carrying Urals crude from Russia to Europe has temporarily halted flows to address "unscheduled repairs," the Russian energy export giant Transneft wrote in a statement. "Unscheduled repairs were started on one of the branches of the Druzhba oil pipeline, limiting the flow in the direction of Poland for approximately three days, while the planned target for the month is not being revised," Transneft spokesman Igor Demin said. Gomeltransneft, the operator of the Belarusian section, said maintenance began on Nov. 16. "Starting from yesterday, Gomeltransneft has started an unplanned maintenance at one of the lines of the Druzhba pipeline, having restricted [crude] pumping towards Adamowa Zastawa [in Poland] tentatively for three days, but the plan for the month is not revised," a Transneft spokesman said. Druzhba is one of the largest pipeline networks in the world that carries a mix of heavy sour oil of Urals and light oil of Western Siberia, where its network splits in two and pumps the crude into a northern section, Poland and Germany, and a southern area, Ukraine to Slovakia, the Czech Republic, and Hungary. The unscheduled repairs, restricting flows, come days after Belarusian leader Alexander Lukashenko threatened to cut the transit gas supply from Russia to Europe over a migrant crisis at the Belarus-Poland border. Compound that with the approval process for the Nord Stream 2 pipeline now delayed...As Katabella Roberts writes at The Epoch Times, Germany’s energy regulator the Bundesnetzagentur announced on Tuesday that it has suspended the certification process for a major new pipeline connecting the country and Russia, after ruling that its operator within Germany does not comply with conditions set by German law. “Nord Stream 2 AG, which is based in Zug (Switzerland), has decided not to transform its existing legal form but instead to found a subsidiary under German law solely to govern the German part of the pipeline. This subsidiary is to become the owner and operator of the German part of the pipeline. The subsidiary must then fulfil the requirements of an independent transmission operator as set out in the German Energy Industry Act,” the Bundesnetzagentur said in a statement.“Following a thorough examination of the documentation, the Bundesnetzagentur concluded that it would only be possible to certify an operator of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline if that operator was organised in a legal form under German law,” the German regulator said....and the Dutch month-ahead gas, the European benchmark, is up at least 33% this week. For a sense of the scale of Europe's gas price crisis, the following chart puts UK, US, and EU NatGas on par with WTI Crude (per barrel of oil equivalent BTUs), As is clear, there is a huge energy disparity between gas in Europe, providing more incentives for switching again (but not helped by Belarus now shutting its oil pipeline). The timing of the Druzhba maintenance and delay of the Nord Stream 2 certification process comes at the worst possible moment. Europe faces a massive energy crunch as natgas stockpiles are the lowest in a decade, just as Europe faces its first cold winter blast. Widespread below-average temperatures continue to plague parts of the continent, as the following chart of NW Europe Heating Degree Days shows.
What Would Happen If Brazil Privatized Its National Oil Company? - A massive surge in inflation is threatening Brazil’s post-pandemic economic recovery. Latin America’s largest economy was savaged by the coronavirus with Brazil suffering the third most COVID-19 cases and second-highest deaths globally. As a result, Brazil’s 2020 gross domestic product shrank by just over 4%. Since the economy began recovering inflation has surged to over 10%, on an annualized basis, causing the fiscal outlook for Latin America’s largest economy to deteriorate. This forced Brazil’s central bank to hike the benchmark Selic rate by 1.5% to 7.75%, the sixth increase this year. Brazil’s soaring inflation can be blamed on the surge in oil prices since the start of 2021 which has caused domestic fuel prices to spiral upwards. This is threatening Brazil’s crucial economic upswing and creating considerable hardship for Brazilians, sparking significant political pressure for embattled populist right-wing president Jair Bolsonaro. In response to the inflationary crisis, Bolsonaro floated the idea of privatizing Brazil’s national oil company Petrobras. As of September 2021, the national government in Brasilia, through a series of entities, owns a controlling 36.75% interest in Petrobras. The remaining 63.25% of the company is owned by retail and institutional investors with 19.77% being comprised of New York Stock Exchange American Depositary Receipts. Bolsonaro’s latest statements are in stark contrast to earlier statements during his administration where he opposed privatizing Petrobras because of its strategic value to Brazil and importance in driving the country’s epic offshore oil boom. The president also took a heavy-handed interventionist approach to managing Petrobras earlier this year when he dismissed the company’s experienced president Roberto Castello Branco in a spat over higher fuel prices. Bolsonaro replaced Branco with army general and former defense minister Joaquim Silva e Luna who, ironically, has refused to artificially control fuel prices despite being a Bolsonaro appointee. Lawmakers in Bolsonaro’s administration have indicated that the privatization of Petrobras could occur through a share sale, although such a move is not as simple as Brasilia has portrayed.
Joe Biden and Xi Jinping discuss tandem U.S.-China oil stockpile release --Oil fell as investors weighed the chances that the Biden administration may tap emergency reserves in a coordinated move with nations such as China, and a mixed report on U.S. stockpiles.President Joe Biden has been weighing the merits of releasing oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve to try to quell gasoline prices. A release by China was raised by the U.S. during this week’s virtual summit with President Xi Jinping, the South China Morning Post reported, citing an unidentified person. Beijing is open to the request but hasn’t committed to specific actions, it said.The Xi-Biden summit lasted 3 1/2 hours, and covered a host of issues including energy security. The U.S. request to China to release oil reserves was part of talks on economic cooperation, the South China Morning Post said. The matter was also discussed during an earlier phone conversation between Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi and U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken, it said.In the U.S., crude in the tanks at Cushing -- the delivery point in Oklahoma for WTI futures -- has sunk to a three-year low after dropping for the past five weeks, according to official data from the Energy Information Administration.The industry-funded American Petroleum Institute reported nationwide crude inventories rose 655,000 barrels last week, according to people familiar with the data. However, the report also showed a draw in oil at the hub at Cushing, as well as lower gasoline holdings. Official figures come later on Wednesday.After hitting a seven-year high last month crude has eased, and traders are trying to figure out the market’s likely trajectory into 2022. The International Energy Agency said this week while demand growth remains robust, supply is catching up. Meanwhile, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries said a surplus may soon emerge as the rebound from the pandemic falters.WTI for December delivery dropped 0.6% to $80.30 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange at 9:09 a.m. in Singapore. Brent for January settlement lost 0.5% to $82.06 a barrel on the ICE Futures Europe exchange.The oil market remains backwardated, a bullish pattern marked by near-term prices trading at a premium to longer-dated ones. Brent’s prompt spread was $1.01 a barrel in backwardation on Tuesday, little changed from the level on Monday.
Here's Why Biden Was Forced To Beg Xi To Release Oil From China's SPR -- As we have detailed in depth over the past few days (here, here, and here), the Biden administration is utterlydesperate to stop retail gasoline prices soaring as the president's approval rating plunges ever lower. So desperate that last night we reported that Biden had reportedly asked President Xi to release some of China's Strategic Petroleum Reserve (which we remarked and JPMorgan has confirmed was "highly unlikely" to happen).The decision to ask China to join a coordinated global SPR release seemed odd at the time of reporting... but now we may know why Biden was forced to do it. It turns out that the US SPR has seen drawdowns for 10 straight weeks, during which more than 15 million barrels of crude have been withdrawn. At 606 million barrels, SPR is at its lowest since 2003, and it seems more declines are on the horizon. As Bloomberg's Julian Lee points out, the withdrawal of 3.25 million barrels from the SPR is the biggest in more than a decade. Not since the coordinated release of emergency reserves in September 2011, following the Libyan uprising, have we had this much taken out of the storage caverns in a single week. It is clear that the much talked-about SPR draw is happening by stealth, despite U.S. House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer saying he is not in agreement with Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer's call for tapping the strategic oil reserve to lower gas prices, saying he believed the reserve was there to be used if there is a collapse in supply in times of emergency. "I'm not in agreement with that. I think that the Strategic Petroleum Reserve is not for a raise in prices, it's for a collapse in supply at times of emergency, i.e. a conflagration in the Middle East which essentially shuts off supply," Hoyer told reporters when asked if he agreed with Schumer's comments. Too late, Steny - it already happened! So what the hell is going on? 10 straight weeks of SPR drawdowns and prices for gas at the pump have risen over 7%.
Energy markets could see a 'series of crunches' as demand grows, oil expert Dan Yergin says There's a disconnect in the energy market, and it could lead to future supply shortages, Daniel Yergin, vice chairman of IHS Markit, told CNBC. International oil companies are under pressure to cut investments in traditional energy production at a time when demand for oil is growing — and that's leading to a "preemptive underinvestment" in supply, Yergin told CNBC's "Capital Connection" on Monday at the Abu Dhabi International Petroleum Exhibition and Conference. He called it a disconnect between the "realities of the dynamics of the market" and the policies that are being implemented. Oil producers are "clearly not investing enough" because investors want them to be more careful and exercise capital discipline, he added. On the other hand, "world demand is going to be back where it was in 2019 in the next few months, and … demand will continue to grow, so you will need investment," he said. In its monthly oil market report, OPEC said it sees global oil demand reaching 100.6 million barrels per day in 2022 — that's about 0.5 million bpd above pre-pandemic levels. The focus on shifting away from traditional fuels toward clean energy may also contribute to a supply shortage, Yergin said. Global demand for power is growing more quickly than renewable energy capacity, which means there isn't enough clean energy to meet the world's needs. We need to find a new balance between the United States and China. That's the single most important issue in international affairs today. "I think we should be conscious that one of the things we may see is a series of crunches," he said. U.S. crude futures are up 68% and international benchmark Brent crude gained 60% so far this year as demand jumped due to economies reopening and loosening pandemic restrictions.
IEA sees a potential reprieve for soaring oil prices as U.S. ramps up production— The International Energy Agency said on Tuesday that soaring oil prices could soon turn lower as the U.S. leads a rebound in global supply. Oil prices have soared above $80 a barrel over the last few weeks, hitting their highest level in seven years, as demand outstripped supply. The momentum behind the price rally has even tempted some forecasters topredict a return to $100-a-barrel oil, although not everyone shares this view."The world oil market remains tight by all measures, but a reprieve from the price rally could be on the horizon," the IEA said in its closely watched monthly report."Contrary to hopes expressed in Glasgow at COP26 this is not because demand is declining, but rather due to rising oil supplies."Demand for oil is also strengthening because of robust gasoline consumption and increasing international travel as more countries re-open their borders, the influential energy agency said.Higher oil prices, weaker industrial activity and an alarming resurgence of Covid-19 infections in Europe, however, will likely temper price rises, the group added.International benchmark Brent crude futures traded at $82.58 a barrel on Tuesday morning in London, up around 0.6%, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures stood at $81.28, over 0.5% higher.The IEA kept its forecast for oil demand growth largely unchanged from last month at 5.5 million barrels per day for 2021 and 3.4 million barrels per day for 2022."As we head towards the end of the year, we are expecting continued strong growth in demand, but supply is finally on the rise," Toril Bosoni, oil market analyst at the International Energy Agency, told CNBC's "Street Signs Europe" on Tuesday."So, OPEC+ is continuing to unwind their cuts but we are also seeing higher supplies from other producers outside of the group and so we're seeing that the market is moving closer to balance."The IEA said it expected a rise of 1.5 million barrels per day in global oil output in the final three months of the year, with the U.S. alone accounting for 400,000 barrels of this growth.OPEC kingpin Saudi Arabia and non-OPEC leader Russia are each set to account for 330,000 barrels per day of the increase, in line with their OPEC+ targets. By December, Saudi Arabia and Russia are each set to pump over 10 million barrels per day for the first time since April last year, the IEA said. The energy agency revised its global oil supply forecast 330,000 barrels per day higher for the fourth quarter to reach 99.2 million barrels per day by year-end. That's up 6.4 million barrels per day year-on-year.The U.S. is forecast to account for 60% of non-OPEC+ supply gains next year, now forecast at 1.9 million barrels per day, although the country is not expected to return to pre-Covid levels until the end of 2022.The IEA said that while stronger oil prices had prompted some U.S. producers to ratchet up production, the same could not be said for OPEC+. The energy alliance decided to keep production policy steady in early November, raising output 400,000 bpd, defying pressure from major consumers for a higher increase to help cool the market. The oil producer group is set to meet again on Dec. 2.
China draws on crude oil inventories amid weak imports, strong processing: Russell (Reuters) - A rebound in China's crude oil processing in October coupled with a sharp drop in imports of the fuel means the world's biggest crude buyer is back to drawing down inventories. China's refineries used 58.4 million tonnes of crude in October, equivalent to about 13.75 million barrels per day (bpd), up from the 16-month low of 13.64 million bpd in September. But the total volume of crude available to refineries from both imports and domestic output was just 54.63 million tonnes, or about 12.86 million bpd. This means that refineries processed about 890,000 bpd more crude than what was available from imports and domestic production, meaning that they had to draw down on inventories. China doesn't disclose the volumes of crude flowing into or out of strategic and commercial stockpiles. But an estimate can be made by deducting the total amount of crude available from imports and domestic output from the amount of crude processed. In the past seven months, China's refineries have processed more crude than what was available on five occasions. However, strong stockpile builds in the first quarter of the 2021 mean that for the first 10 months overall, China has added about 150,000 bpd to its commercial or strategic storages. But even this modest build is well below what has been the pattern of the last several years, as China has consistently imported crude well beyond its consumption as it built up its strategic petroleum reserve (SPR).
Oil futures see gentle hedge fund selling: Kemp (Reuters) - Petroleum futures and options continued to see light profit-taking by hedge funds and other money managers last week, as oil prices drifted lower from the three-year highs set in late October. Portfolio managers sold the equivalent of 9 million barrels in the six most important contracts in the seven days to Nov. 9, according to records from ICE Futures Europe and the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Funds have been net sellers in four of the last five weeks, reducing their combined position by a total of 77 million barrels (9%) to 794 million barrels (Link). But nearly all the adjustment has come from a reduction in previous bullish long positions (-70 million barrels) with only a small number of new bearish ones initiated (+7 million), consistent with profit-taking after a big rally. In the most recent week, hedge funds were sellers of Brent (-10 million), U.S. gasoline (-5 million) and U.S. diesel (-9 million), but bought NYMEX and ICE WTI (+12 million) and European gas oil (+4 million). WTI and gas oil have been the strongest elements of the complex in recent months, expected to benefit from continued production restraint by U.S. shale producers and the scarcity of natural gas stocks in Europe. The hedge fund community remains essentially bullish about the outlook for oil, with combined long positions outnumbering shorts by 6:1, in the 79th percentile for all weeks since 2013. But with prices already at multi-year highs and positions stretched, petroleum contracts are no longer attracting much fresh buying. Instead they are being sapped by persistent, gentle selling as managers lock in some profits.
IEA sees oil price rally slowing as crude output recovers --- The tightness in global oil markets that propelled prices to a seven-year high is starting to ease as production recovers in the U.S. and elsewhere, the International Energy Agency said. Demand growth remains robust, but supply is catching up and changes in oil stockpiles seen in October suggest “the tide might be turning,” according to the IEA’s monthly report. If the forecast proves to be correct, it would provide a significant relief for harried consumers who are suffering the consequences of price inflation. “The world oil market remains tight by all measures, but a reprieve from the price rally could be on the horizon,” the Paris-based IEA said in its monthly report. “Production in the U.S. is ramping up in tandem with stronger oil prices.” Global oil output increased by 1.4 million barrels a day last month, and will add as much again over November and December as the Gulf of Mexico restores supplies halted by Hurricane Ida. American shale drillers are also taking advantage of higher prices to bolster drilling. Those extra barrels are coming onstream as the OPEC+ alliance continues to revive exports it halted during the pandemic, the agency said. Crude futures surged above $86 a barrel in London last month on the combination of recovering post-pandemic consumption and a shortfall of natural gas supplies that spurred extra demand for oil. Prices have since retreated to under $83 as the U.S. contemplates action to bring down fuel costs. President Joe Biden has been considering a release from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve after the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its partners rebuffed his calls to restore production more quickly. The alliance, led by Saudi Arabia and Russia, has argued that it should stick to its gradual approach because demand remains fragile. OPEC Secretary-General Mohammad Barkindo reiterated the group’s stand-point on Tuesday, saying that global oil markets are poised to return to surplus from next month.
Scale of oil’s swing to surplus is next year’s big market puzzle - The oil market is about to swing into a healthy supply surplus, if the world's big international energy forecasters are to be believed. The scale of that shift -- so critical to what the price of crude does next -- is heavily dependent on something that leading producer countries have collectively failed to do time and time again in recent months: pump as much as they're supposed to. The latest outlooks from the International Energy Agency, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and the U.S. Energy Information Administration all show the global oil deficit shrinking in the current quarter and flipping into surplus next year — provided that the OPEC+ producer group’s members all hit individual output targets under their supply deal. Those targets envisage the group’s combined production increasing by 400,000 barrels a day each month until at least April, when the baselines against which cuts are measured are revised for several of its members. OPEC+, as the group is known, refused earlier this month to heed customers’ requests for a bigger increase in December, arguing that the market is well supplied. The forecasts of all three agencies would appear to support that view, if the producers can pump as planned. But that ability is questionable. Of the three agencies, only the U.S. EIA forecasts OPEC production and it sees that running well below the target level as we move through 2022 (see chart below). In contrast, analysts at OPEC used target production levels in the forecasts they presented to ministers before the meeting earlier this month. Data for October suggest that the EIA may be closer to the mark than OPEC. The producer group published estimates of its members’ October output in its latest monthly report. They showed an increase of just 136,000 barrels a day from September, less than one-fifth of the jump assumed in the forecast presented to ministers in late October. The impact on oil balances next year is significant. Using the EIA’s demand and non-OPEC production forecasts and the OPEC+ output targets for OPEC members, global oil supply exceeds demand by 900,000 barrels a day in the first quarter of 2022 and the glut increases throughout the year. But if we substitute those targets with the EIA’s forecast of OPEC production, a very different picture emerges. The first-quarter supply surplus is virtually wiped out, with a small stock build in January offset by further draws in February and March. The subsequent builds in global inventories don’t exceed 1 million barrels a day, in contrast to the 3 million barrel-a-day increase seen in 4Q22 when using the OPEC targets (see chart above). Nonetheless, the three agencies still see market tightness easing as global supplies increase. Changes to oil demand from last month’s outlooks were modest, with the biggest upward revisions being made to the current quarter by the IEA and EIA, while OPEC has trimmed its expectations of oil use over this and the next two quarters. Those higher fourth-quarter demand projections were offset by similar increases in non-OPEC supply from the IEA and EIA. For 2022, the IEA and EIA both increased their forecasts of non-OPEC production, while OPEC cut its forecast for the first half of the year and increased it for the second half. The net result of the tweaks to demand and non-OPEC supply forecasts is that all three agencies now see the world’s need for OPEC crude in 2022 lower than they did a month ago.
Oil Futures Plummet as Europe Returns to COVID Lockdowns -- Oil futures nearest delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange and Brent crude on the Intercontinental Exchange fell more than 1.5% in early trade Monday, sending the international crude benchmark below $81 per barrel (bbl), as investors monitor an uptrend in COVID-19 infections across European Union and Russia, that have prompted several governments in the region to bring back quarantine restrictions in their effort to slow the viral spread ahead of the winter months. Europe once again became the epicenter of a COVID-19 outbreak, with new cases in Germany, Netherlands and Russia climbing to their highest levels since the early days of the pandemic. The World Health Organization estimates coronavirus deaths rose by 10% in Europe in the past week, with low vaccination rates in central and eastern European countries seen as a main driver behind the surge. Russia -- with barely a third of the population vaccinated -- has seen a steady two-month uptrend in new COVID-19 infections and now leads the world in total coronavirus deaths for the first time since the start of the pandemic. Faced with dire heath crisis, many governments in the region have once again resorted to unpopular quarantine measures but this time only for those who rejected the vaccine. Austrian Chancellor Alexander Schellenberg announced a targeted lockdown starting Monday for all those who are 12 and older who have not been inoculated -- meaning around 30% of the country's population must stay at home except for a few limited reasons. The new rules will be reinforced by police officers carrying out spot checks on those who are out. The Netherlands' government announced similar measures on Friday, while also limiting hours of operation for restaurants and bars. In Germany, where cases on Sunday surged to a new record of more than 50,000, the country's health minister, Jens Spahn, said the public health officials must do "everything necessary" to break the latest wave of the disease, Deutsche Welle reported. "The situation is serious, and I recommend that everyone takes it as such," he added. The latest COVID-19 wave will likely bolster the view that the lingering impact of the pandemic will curb oil demand. Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries last week said it expects global oil demand to average 99.49 million barrels per day (bpd) in the fourth quarter, down 330,000 bpd from their forecast in October. Domestically, consumer sentiment unexpectedly collapsed in early November as Americans grew increasingly worried about rising inflation along with the COVID-19 pandemic. Consumers see price increases accelerating to 4.9% over the next year, the highest since 2008. That waning confidence has some economists saying the spike in prices could dent supercharged consumer spending that's fueled this year's economic recovery.
Oil settles mixed on questions over crude supply, demand, strong dollar (Reuters) -Oil prices settled mixed on Monday as investors wondered whether crude supplies will increase and whether demand will be pressured by the recent surge in energy costs, the strong dollar and rising COVID-19 cases. Brent futures settled down 12 cents, or 0.2%, to $82.05 a barrel while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude rose 8 cents, or 0.1%, to $80.88. In early trading, the oil market factored in speculation that President Joe Biden's administration could fight high prices by releasing crude oil from the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve, but skepticism about that approach caused U.S. crude to edge higher, Weighing on oil prices, the U.S. dollar hit a 16-month high against a basket of currencies as investors worried about the global economy. A stronger dollar makes oil more expensive for buyers using other currencies. U.S. shale production in December is expected to reach prepandemic levels of 8.68 million barrels a day, according to Rystad Energy. Meanwhile there are indications demand may be slowing due to heightened coronavirus cases and inflation. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) last week cut its world oil demand forecast for the fourth quarter by 330,000 bpd from last month's forecast, as high energy prices hampered economic recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic. "The market now seems to be less concerned about the current supply tightness, expecting it to be short-lived," "Traders are instead refocusing on the return of two bearish factors – the possibility of more oil supply sources and more COVID-19 cases." UAE Energy Minister Suhail al-Mazrouei said all indications point to an oil supply surplus in the first quarter of 2022. "There's little chance of OPEC+ raising output faster, especially if ... the group expects the market to return to surplus in the first quarter of 2022," Europe has again become the epicenter of the COVID-19 pandemic, prompting some governments to consider re-imposing lockdowns, while China is battling the spread of its biggest outbreak caused by the Delta variant.
Oil Futures Up as IEA Leaves 2021 Demand Outlook Unchanged -- Nearby delivery oil futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange and Brent crude traded on the Intercontinental Exchange pushed higher in early trade Tuesday after International Energy Agency made no adjustments to its 2021 global oil demand outlook, projecting that bourgeoning gasoline and jet fuel consumption underpinned by the reopening of international air travel would offset renewed quarantine measures in the Northern Hemisphere and weakness in Asia's industrial production. In its November Oil Market Report released this morning, IEA projected worldwide oil consumption would rise by 5.5 million barrels per day (bpd) this year -- unchanged from the previous' month forecast, despite concerns over expected demand weakness stemming from COVID-19 flare-ups across Europe. In 2022, the Paris-based agency estimates demand growth of 3.4 million bpd. "Global oil demand is strengthening due to robust gasoline consumption and increasing international travel as more countries re-open their borders. However, new COVID-19 waves in Europe, weaker industrial activity and higher oil prices will temper gains," said IEA. This week, a number of European countries resorted to targeted lockdowns in their attempt to slow the spread of the virus ahead of the winter months. Netherlands, Austria, and Russia have announced "stay-at-home" orders for the unvaccinated and limited hours of operations for contact sensitive businesses. In contrast to the IEA outlook, Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries downgraded their global demand expectations for the fourth quarter by 330,000 bpd, projecting annualized growth of 96.7 million bpd. The cartel noted that there is no shortage of supplies on the global oil market amid rapidly weakening consumption in China and India. At the annual energy conference at Abu Dhabi, Saudi oil minister Prince Abdul-Aziz bin Salman rejected calls for additional supplies from the kingdom, adding that "the issue is not lack of crude-oil, but it is a case for availability of gas, liquefied natural gas, coal and the electricity." On Nov. 4, OPEC and Russia-led non-OPEC oil producers agreed to increase production quotas by 400,000 bpd for December, consistent with their July agreement, while shrugging off intense lobbying from the United States and other consuming countries for more volume of crude oil output. In outside markets, U.S. Dollar Index ripped higher against a basket of foreign currencies as investors await the release of key economic data domestically, with expectations for October retail sales and industrial production to show a marked improvement from the prior month.
Oil bounces back on tight inventories, demand worries limit gains -- Oil prices settled mixed on Tuesday, as prospects of tight inventories worldwide were offset by forecasts of a production increase in coming months and concerns over rising coronavirus cases in Europe. Brent crude rose 38 cents, or 0.5%, to $82.43 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude fell 12 cents, or 0.2%, to $80.76 a barrel. "The oil market will remain tight in the short term, which should lend support to prices," Oil output from Texas' Permian basin was forecast to reach a record 4.953 million barrels per day (bpd) in December. U.S. crude stocks were expected to have risen for a fourth straight week, with analysts in a Reuters poll forecasting a build of about 1.4 million barrels last week. The first of two weekly supply reports, from industry group the American Petroleum Institute, is due later Tuesday. However, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said the oil market rally may ease as high prices could provide a strong incentive to boost production, particularly in the United States. The IEA expects average Brent prices to be around $71.50 per barrel in 2021 and $79.40 in 2022, while Rosneft said it may reach $120 in the second half of 2022, according to the TASS news agency. Secretary General Mohammad Barkindo of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries expects an oil surplus as early as December and the market to remain oversupplied next year. OPEC last week cut its world oil demand forecast for the fourth quarter by 330,000 bpd from last month's forecast, as high energy prices hampered economic recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic. Worries about demand destruction also weighed as Europe has again become the epicentre of the COVID-19 pandemic, prompting some governments to consider reimposing lockdowns, while China is battling the spread of its biggest outbreak caused by the Delta variant. The Biden administration has been considering tapping U.S. emergency stockpiles to cool rising oil prices. However, the acting head of U.S. Energy Information Administration said a release of oil from the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) would likely have only a short-lived impact on oil markets.
WTI Holds Losses Despite Surprise Crude Draw - Despite dismissals over outcomes, oil prices remain under pressure from ongoing talk of SPR releases (US and/or China)from a desperate President Biden battling record gas prices at the pump. WTI wasn't helped by Fed's Bullard's hawkish comments either and this morning's hawkish tilt to short-term interest-rates suggests his perspective may be being taken seriously by an increasingly anxious-about0inflation market. “The actual contribution to the supply is so limited,” Hans van Cleef, senior energy economist at ABN Amro said of a possible release from reserves.“For now we are rangebound, while waiting for new triggers.”Last night's small crude build and large drop in stocks at Cushing reported by API will be key to watch in the official data. API
- Crude +655k (+1.2mm exp)
- Cushing -2.792mm
- Gasoline -491k
- Distillates +107k
DOE
- Crude -2.101mm (+1.2mm exp, -178k whisper)
- Cushing +216k - first build in 6 weeks
- Gasoline -707k
- Distillates -824k
According to the official data, crude stocks dropped 2.1mm barrels last week (very different from API and expectations). Cushing stocks are getting ever closer to their low-operational-limits (around 20mm barrels) and last week's tiny 216k barrel build does nothing to change that...
Oil Futures Deepen Losses Despite US Crude, Product Draws - Crude and refined products futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange accelerated losses in late morning trade Wednesday, sending the front-month West Texas Intermediate below $79 per barrel (bbl) despite government data from the Energy Information Administration showing U.S. commercial crude oil inventories unexpectedly decreased in the week-ended Nov. 12 and gasoline supplies dropped above consensus, while domestic refiners ramped up run rates underpinned by strengthening fuel demand. Inventory data released midmorning indicated nationwide crude oil supplies declined 2.1 million bbl from the previous week to 433 million bbl and are now about 7% below the five-year average. The crude draw was bullish against market expectations for a 500,000 bbl build and earlier estimates from the American Petroleum Institute showing inventories increased by 655,000 bbl from the prior week. This was realized as domestic refiners increased run rates for the fourth consecutive week through Nov. 12, up 1.2% to 87.9% of capacity, compared with analyst expectations for a 0.7% increase. Domestic crude oil production decreased 100,000 barrels per day (bpd) to 11.4 million bpd, according to EIA. Oil stored at Cushing, Oklahoma, the delivery point for West Texas Intermediate futures, rose 216,000 bbl from the previous week to 26.6 million bbl. Additionally, gasoline stockpiles declined by 707,000 bbl from the previous week to 212 million bbl compared with analyst expectations for inventories to have decreased by 600,000 bbl. Demand for motor gasoline remained steady near 9.241 million bbl, slipping only marginally from the prior week, while remaining more than 100,000 bpd above the five-year average. If gasoline demand follows pre-COVID seasonality, it would trend lower through the fourth quarter before a final surge amid the Christmas holiday. Distillate stocks fell 824,000 bbl to 123.7 million bbl and are now about 5% below the five-year average. Analysts estimated a 1.2 million bbl decline from the previous week. Distillate demand extended higher for the second consecutive week to 4.350 million bpd, gaining 70,000 bpd -- directionally in line with a 0.2% increase seen in DTN Refined Fuels Demand data. Total U.S. diesel demand was up 4.5% relative to the same week in 2019, weakening on a relative seasonal basis after being up 7.1% compared to 2019 levels, according to DTN data. Total products supplied over the last four-week period averaged 20.2 million bpd, up 3.9% from the same period last year. Over the past four weeks, motor gasoline product supplied averaged 9.3 million bpd, up 10.1% from the same period last year. Near 11:45 a.m. ET, NYMEX December West Texas Intermediate futures slumped $1.85 to trade at $78.88 bbl, NYMEX December RBOB futures declined 5.37 cents to $2.2960 gallon, and the front-month ULSD contract accelerated losses to $2.3819 gallon, down 4.87 cents on the session so far.
Oil drops on oversupply warnings, rising COVID-19 cases --Oil prices fell on Wednesday after the International Energy Agency and the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries warned of impending oversupply and as COVID-19 cases in Europe increased the downside risks to demand recovery. The market pared some of those losses after an unexpected decline in U.S. crude oil stockpiles. Brent crude futures dropped $2.6%, or $2.15, to settle at $80.28 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures settled 3%, or $2.40, lower at $78.36 per barrel. U.S. crude oil inventories fell by 2.1 million barrels last week, latest government data showed, running against analyst expectations for a build of 1.4 million barrels. The IEA on Tuesday warned that while the "oil market remains tight by all measures, ... a reprieve from the price rally could be on the horizon ... due to rising oil supplies." New waves of COVID-19 cases in Europe which drove some governments to reimpose restrictions also weighed on prices. The agency said high price levels will see U.S. oil production rising again in 2022, accounting for about 60% of its forecast of 1.9 million barrels per day for non-OPEC supply growth. Latest weekly data showed U.S. output dipped to 11.4 million bpd, though these figures are rounded off and volatile. The high cost of fuel prices is a growing concern for the Biden administration, which on Wednesday asked the Federal Trade Commission to investigate the growing gap between the cost of unfinished gas and what consumers are paying at the pump. The United States has considered an emergency release of oil from the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve, though the SPR is generally used during natural disasters or supply disruptions usually caused by wars. In the most recent week, the United States released more than 3 million barrels from the SPR, the second consecutive release of this size. These sales from the SPR are part of previously approved sales by Congress, and are not considered emergency releases. However, analysts have said the administration could consider speeding up such approved sales rather than resort to an emergency declaration. "With the mechanism for this sale already in place, with broad discretion from the legislation on timing, and without the risk of alienating IEA allies, accelerating this 18 mb of mandated sales may be the easiest of the options the White House has," said J.P. Morgan analysts in a Wednesday note. On Tuesday, OPEC Secretary General Mohammad Barkindo said the group sees signs of an oil supply surplus building from next month adding that its members and allies will have to be "very, very cautious".
Oil prices fall to six-week low on prospect of strategic crude releases - Oil tumbled to the lowest in nearly six weeks as investors considered the prospect of a release of crude supplies from strategic reserves.Futures in New York closed down 3% on Wednesday with both benchmarks dropping below their 50-day moving averages. President Joe Biden and his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping discussed the merits of releasing oil from their reserves in a virtual summit Monday but didn’t make a decision, according to officials familiar with the discussions. In a letter on Wednesday, President Biden urged the Federal Trade Commission to probe possible illegal conduct in U.S. gasoline markets.“Energy markets are waiting to see what, if any, coordinated efforts with the U.S. and China happen before placing bullish bets,” .Crude has drifted in a range of about $7 for the last six weeks, and traders are trying to figure out the market’s likely trajectory into 2022. The International Energy Agency said this week that while demand growth remains robust, supply is catching up. Meanwhile, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries said a surplus may soon emerge as the rebound from the pandemic falters.“When the trajectory of the oil market’s supply tightness is being challenged by both the IEA and OPEC, it’s difficult for the trading mood to not turn bearish,” said Louise Dickson, a senior oil markets analyst at Rystad Energy.Japan, another major consumer that has voiced concern about high prices, is unlikely to release oil from its reserves due to a law that only allows it to release stocks in the event of supply disruptions, a government official said.The U.S. Energy Information Administration earlier reported domestic crude inventories fell 2.1 million barrels last week and gasoline stockpiles slid 707,000 barrels. Yet, supplies at the nation’s biggest storage hub at Cushing, Oklahoma, edged higher.
Oil climbs after touching six-week lows as China eyes reserves-- Oil prices rose slightly on Thursday after dropping to six-week lows as investors wondered about how much crude major economies would release from their strategic reserves and how much that would ease global crude demand pressures. Prices fell to six-week lows early in the session as China said it was moving to tap reserves. On Wednesday, Reuters news reported that the United States was asking large consuming nations to consider a stockpile release to lower prices. Washington’s bid to cool markets, asking China to join a coordinated action for the first time, comes as high gasoline prices and other inflationary pressures have sparked a political backlash. Global benchmark Brent crude settled up 96 cents, or 1.2 percent, at $81.24 a barrel. The session low of $79.28 was the lowest since October 7. US West Texas Intermediate crude futures closed 65 cents, or 0.8 percent, higher at $79.01 a barrel. It also fell during the session to the lowest since early last month at $77.08. A release, even if only from the US and China, will likely drive prices lower at least temporarily. In October, prices hit seven-year highs as the market focused on the swift rebound in demand as more people received COVID-19 vaccinations and lockdowns were lifted. Prices rallied as demand rose and the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies, called OPEC+, decided to raise output only slowly. The International Energy Agency and OPEC have said more supply will be available in the coming months, but Washington has pressed for a speedier pace. The proposed release of reserves represents an unprecedented challenge to OPEC, because it involves top importer China. China’s state reserve bureau said it was working on a release of crude reserves although it declined to comment on the US request. A Japanese industry ministry official said that the US had requested Tokyo’s cooperation in dealing with higher oil prices, but that Japan by law cannot use reserve releases to lower prices. A South Korean official said the country was reviewing the US request for Seoul to release some oil reserves, but added it could only release crude in case of a supply imbalance.
NYMEX WTI Reverses off 6-Week Low as Traders Assess SPR Sale -- New York Mercantile Exchange oil futures and Brent crude traded on the Intercontinental Exchange settled Thursday's session higher, with the West Texas Intermediate December contact reversing off a six-week low $77.08 per barrel (bbl) on the spot continuation chart. The gains came as investors assessed the potential impact of a coordinated release from OECD petroleum oil reserves, with the Biden administration reportedly calling for a joint action among oil-consuming countries to lower energy prices ahead of the winter months. At settlement, NYMEX WTI futures for December delivery added $0.65 to $79.01 per bbl after trading at a six-week low $77.08 per bbl earlier in the session and the January contract narrowed its discount to $0.60 per bbl. ICE January Brent crude advanced $0.96 to $81.24 per bbl settlement. Both benchmarks fell as much as 3% on Wednesday. NYMEX RBOB December futures gained 1.4 cents to $2.2943 gallon and front-month NYMEX ULSD added 1.96 cents to $2.3840 gallon settlement. Media airwaves on Thursday were hit with reports that the White House has asked some of the world's largest oil-consuming nations, including China, India and Japan, to tap into their petroleum reserves to relieve pressure on prices in the winter months. Earlier this month, the Biden administration was reportedly considering the idea of a unilateral release of U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserves, a move that would likely have only a limited impact on the market. Considering the short-lived impact on prices today, even a coordinated sale of OECD stockpiles would do little to change the market's sentiment. The oil complex only briefly came under selling pressure from reports that China is now carrying out a second public auction of state crude oil reserves although no specific details on the size of that sale were released. China rolled out its first release from reserves in September, which was equal to roughly 7.38 million bbl. Analysts estimate the second SPR release will likely match the sale from two months ago. Energy Aspects estimates China's state oil reserves hold about 220 million bbl of crude oil, equivalent to 15 days of demand. The International Energy Agency forecasted this week that the tide in the oil markets is already turning towards oversupply, with producers like the U.S., Saudi Arabia and Russia rapidly increasing output. "World oil supply is set to rise 1.5 million barrels per day (bpd) over November and December, with the U.S. providing 400,000 bpd of the gain," said IEA in its latest Monthly Oil Market Report. "Saudi Arabia and Russia combined would account for 330,000 bpd in line with OPEC+ targets. Total oil supply had already leapt 1.4 million bpd month-on-month in October after the U.S. rebounded from Hurricane Ida." The American Petroleum Institute today in its latest Monthly Statistical Report said domestic crude oil production rebounded to 11.4 million bpd in October following September shutdowns in the wake of Hurricane Ida.
Oil Prices Tank On Renewed COVID Panic - Oil prices plunged by 3% early on Friday as Europe contends with rising COVID cases and is returning lockdowns and other restrictions, which the market fears would weigh on economies and oil demand. As of 9:09 a.m. EST on Friday, WTI Crude prices had slumped by 3.05% at $76.60, the lowest level since early October. Brent Crude had dipped below $80 a barrel, and traded down 2.72% at $79.17, also the lowest in more than a month. Prices sank after Austria announced on Friday it would impose a full lockdown starting on Monday. Germany, its neighbor to the north and the largest economy in Europe, faces a “dramatic” fourth wave, German Chancellor Angela Merkel said earlier this week. On Thursday, Germany’s 16 states agreed to introduce new restrictions depending on the hospitalization rate per 100,000 residents. If those rates exceed three people hospitalized with COVID per 100,000 inhabitants, free movement for leisure activities will be allowed only for those who are vaccinated or who have recovered from COVID. In Munich, the mayor scrapped the iconic Christmas market in the city, while a full lockdown in Germany is not entirely off the table. A full lockdown in Europe’s largest economy would slow the economic recovery. In Ireland, the government also announced restrictions this week, with pubs and nightclubs under curfew to close by midnight and people asked to work from home whenever possible. COVID cases are also on the rise in the United States, where the Upper Midwest has registered the biggest jump in cases in what doctors describe as an “unprecedented” situation. Apart from fears of an economic and oil demand slowdown amid rising COVID cases in developed countries, the oil market continues to watch apprehensively the possibility of releases from strategic petroleum reserves not only from the United States but also from major consumers in Asia, including China, India, Japan, and South Korea.
Oil dives 3% to below $80/bbl on resurgent pandemic in Europe (Reuters) - Oil prices fell about 3% to below $80 a barrel on Friday as surging COVID-19 cases in Europe threatened to slow the economic recovery while investors also weighed a potential release of crude reserves by major economies to cool prices. Brent futures for January fell $2.35, or 2.9%, to settle at $78.89 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude for December fell $2.91, or 3.6%, to $76.10 on its last day as the front-month. WTI for January, which will soon be the U.S. front-month, was down about $2.65, or 3.4%, to $75.78. Both benchmarks declined for the fourth consecutive week, for the first time since March 2020. "The worry is that we will get some sort of coordinated release during the Thanksgiving Holiday next week, when volumes are typically low and dramatic moves have occurred." Austria became the first country in western Europe to reimpose a full coronavirus lockdown this autumn to tackle a new wave of COVID-19 infections across the region. Germany, Europe's largest economy, warned it may also have to move to a full lockdown. Brent has surged almost 60% this year as economies have bounced back from the pandemic and as the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and allies, known as OPEC+, have only raised output gradually. "The (oil) market still remains fundamentally in a good position but lockdowns are now an obvious risk... if other countries follow Austria's lead," Governments from some of the world's biggest economies were looking into releasing oil from strategic petroleum reserves (SPR) following a request from the United States, first reported by Reuters, for a coordinated move to cool prices. The White House on Friday pressed the OPEC producer group again to maintain adequate global supply, days after U.S. discussions with some of the world's biggest economies over potentially releasing oil from strategic reserves to quell high energy prices. Speculation about a U.S. SPR release already pushed oil prices down about $4 a barrel in recent weeks and additional supplies of up to 100 million barrels are already priced in, Goldman Sachs oil analysts said in a note. As a result, it said any release "would only provide a short-term fix to a structural deficit." OPEC+ has stuck to its policy of gradual oil output increases even as prices surged, saying it expects supply to outpace demand in the first months of 2022.
Oil Down 11% From 2021 Highs as Covid Returns, Consumers Fight Back - - There were always fears that they could return and they have, to flip the long-running oil rally. Covid lockdowns not reported for months are back in the news amid Europe’s rush to contain rampaging cases of the virus, hammering the oil market harder this week than anytime over the past three months, with crude prices down as much as 11% from the year’s highs. Few could have anticipated this, when just weeks ago OPEC+ smugly turned down pleas from the United States and other consuming countries to put out more barrels to cool prices that had soared to seven-year highs from a continued production squeeze by the alliance despite demand for energy soaring from the worst of the pandemic. To be sure, OPEC+ — comprising the Saudi-led 13-member OPEC bloc and 10 other oil producing countries steered by Russia — could double down on cuts after this to prevent the market from collapsing further. Yet, there’s nothing like the combination of soaring demand and tight production to send oil prices higher. And that demand looks questionable in the near term if more countries go into lockdown, as such a situation could slow a return to work and recovery in aviation, which determine the consumption of gasoline, diesel and jet fuel. Covid aside, there’s also another damper for oil bulls — the threat by the United States, China and a number of consuming countries to coordinate the release of their crude reserves to strike back against OPEC+ production cuts that have created runaway oil inflation in their economies. Again, what the consumers can do to fight the alliance is minimal. But it is just one more worry that oil traders don’t need, evidenced by the 4% price plunge in the first three days of this week, even before Friday’s slump triggered by news of Austria going into lockdown and Germany considering “Unless the cold weather comes a little quicker to facilitate heating needs from energy products, expect crude to trade between $70 to $75, with the possibility of the lowers $60s too if Covid cases worsen.” The front-month January contract in West Texas Intermediate, the U.S. crude benchmark, settled down $2.91, or 3.2%, at 75.94 per barrel. For the week, it fell 5.8%, bringing its combined losses over the past four weeks to 9.3%, after an 18% rally over nine straight weeks. Just in mid-October, WTI traded at a seven-year high of $85.41. Despite the slump of the past week, the U.S. crude benchmark remains up 57% on the year. The January contract for London-traded Brent, the global benchmark for oil, settled down $2.35, or 2.9%, at $78.89 per barrel. For the week, Brent fell 4%, bringing its combined losses over the past four weeks to 8%, after an 18% rally over seven weeks in a row. Just in mid-October, Brent traded at a seven-year high of $86.70. Despite the slump of the past week, the global crude benchmark remains up 52% for the year.
OPEC+ Pumped Less Oil Than Agreed In October - The OPEC+ group’s compliance rate with the oil production cuts rose to 116 percent in October from 115 percent in September, as the alliance, especially the OPEC members in the pact, failed to pump to their collective quota, Reutersreported on Friday, quoting internal data it had seen.The ten OPEC members bound by the pact complied with their total share of the cuts at a massive 121 percent in October, up from a 115 percent compliance rate in September. The non-OPEC oil producers in the OPEC+ agreement saw their compliance fall to 106 percent last month, down from 114 percent in the previous month, according to the data seen by Reuters.The monthly OPEC report already showed last week that the cartel’s ten members in the OPEC+ agreement continued to struggle with reaching their collective ceiling.OPEC’s crude oil production rose by 217,000 barrels per day (bpd) to 27.453 million bpd in October, but still fell short of the cartel’s share of the 400,000-bpd total output hike of the OPEC+ group.Under the OPEC+ deal, the ten OPEC members bound by the OPEC+ pact should be raising their combined production by 254,000 bpd each month.Yet, estimates from secondary sources in OPEC’s Monthly Oil Market Report (MOMR) published last week continued to show what analysts, tanker-tracking firms, and previous OPEC monthly reports showed: the cartel has been undershooting its collective production quota—mostly because of a lack of capacity at some members to pump crude to their respective quotas.African OPEC members Nigeria, Gabon, and Equatorial Guinea not only fell short of their quotas, but they also saw their respective output drop in October compared to September. The leader of the non-OPEC group in the pact, Russia, saw its crude oil and condensate production rise in October for a second consecutive month, to stand at 10.843 million bpd last month, according to Bloomberg estimates based on data from the Russian energy ministry. The data does not discriminate between crude oil and condensate production, so the market and analysts assess crude output by estimating condensate production levels. Russia’s condensate production—estimated at around 800,000 bpd-900,000—is not part of the OPEC+ production cuts, so it’s not easy to assess how much crude oil Russia is really pumping.
OPEC member calls for calm after U.S. pressure to pump more oil - The United Arab Emirates' energy minister on Wednesday defended OPEC and its allies' decision to not increase oil supply to the market, despite U.S. pressure to pump more."I would encourage people to calm, trust us," Suhail al-Mazrouei told CNBC'sHadley Gamble from the Adipec energy forum in Abu Dhabi.Al-Mazrouei said he has received calls from different countries' ministers asking him to take action, but added that OPEC intends to "follow the facts."He pointed to EIA predictions that suggest an oil surplus in the first quarter of next year."In 2022, we expect that growth in production from OPEC+, U.S. tight oil, and other non-OPEC countries will outpace slowing growth in global oil consumption and contribute to Brent prices declining from current levels to an annual average of $72/b," the EIA's November report said."It's going to soften in the first quarter, and we will start to see build up in the inventories in 2022," said al-Mazrouei on Wednesday."That's what the experts said, and we agree with them, in OPEC," he said.If the current plan by OPEC+ to increase production by 400,000 barrels per day each month will already lead to a surplus, the alliance should not change that plan and increase production even further, he added.Not everyone agrees, however.Helima Croft of RBC Capital Markets said that, in practice, OPEC+ is not increasing production as planned because "a number of countries are unable to reach their targets, in part because of lack of investment." "The question is, are we going to still be short barrels when it comes to the first quarter, if it's a cold winter especially, and there's greater demand for oil because of switching needs," Croft, who is managing director and global head of commodity strategy, told CNBC on Tuesday. Both U.S. crude and Brent crude futures have risen more than 60% so far this year after demand increased when pandemic restrictions were loosened.
UAE Sees OPEC+ Sticking To Oil Output Plan With Surplus Looming In Q1 --Despite the calls to boost supply to tame high prices, OPEC+ is likely to continue easing the cuts with the gradual pace it set in July as it expects the oil market to tip into a surplus as soon as the first quarter of 2022, according to the energy minister of one of OPEC’s heavyweights, the United Arab Emirates (UAE).“All of the data are showing us in the first quarter we will have a surplus of supply compared to demand,” despite the current deficit on the market, the UAE’s Energy Minister Suhail al-Mazrouei told Reuters on Monday on the sidelines of the ADIPEC energy forum in Abu Dhabi.OPEC+ and OPEC don’t want stagnation in global economic growth, al-Mazrouei said, a week after major oil consumers such as the U.S. and Japan said that the OPEC+ alliance’s snub of calls for more supply could hurt the economic recovery from the pandemic.“But at the same time we cannot just pump more when there is no technical requirement for it. We are a technical organisation, we are not going to do political decisions,” al-Mazrouei told Reuters.In a separate interview with Bloomberg, the UAE’s energy minister said, “That should be enough,” referring to the monthly increase of 400,000 barrels per day (bpd) in the collective production of the OPEC+ group.OPEC’s de facto leader and the world’s largest oil exporter, Saudi Arabia, also signaled—through its Energy Minister, Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman—that the pace of the easing of the cuts should be enough as a surplus is coming early next year.Two other Gulf oil producers, OPEC’s Kuwait and Oman—part of the wider OPEC+ group—do not see a reason for the alliance to jump the gun and respond to the calls from consumers, either.
COP26 is a 'wake-up call' and the industry needs to face reality, says OPEC's Barkindo -The secretary general of oil producer group OPEC has said the COP26 climate summit in Glasgow was "definitely a wake-up call."Speaking to CNBC at the ADIPEC energy industry forum in Abu Dhabi, Mohammad Barkindo was asked if the deal eventually reached in Glasgow — which included a late compromise on language related to coal — was a success."I wouldn't call it a failure," Barkindo told Dan Murphy. "I think the U.K. presidency did an extremely good job in bringing back Paris on track in Glasgow.""It's not a mean achievement to rebuild the consensus of Paris in Glasgow if you follow the fractures we saw after the withdrawal of the United States," he added.The Paris Agreement, adopted in 2015, aims to "limit global warming to well below 2, preferably to 1.5 degrees Celsius, compared to pre-industrial levels."The task is huge, and the United Nations has noted that 1.5 degrees Celsius is considered to be "the upper limit" when it comes to avoiding the worst consequences from climate change.The COP26 deal sought to build on this and prevent the worst effects of climate change, although it faced stumbling blocks related to the phasing out of coal, fossil fuel subsidies and financial support to low-income countries.India and China, both among the world's biggest burners of coal, insisted on a last-minute change of fossil fuel language in the pact — from a "phase out" of coal to a "phase down." After initial objections, opposing countries ultimately conceded.For his part, Barkindo was broadly positive about the outcome. "I think John Kerry and his team together with [Alok] Sharma, the president of COP26, did a marvelous job in rebuilding that consensus that was fractured after Paris," he said. "Because without that consensus, it would have been impossible to get the Glasgow climate pact."
Japan PM confirms oil reserves may be released to curb prices (Reuters) - Japan is considering releasing oil from its reserves for the first time to curb surging oil prices, Kyodo news agency reported on Saturday, as Prime Minister Fumio Kishida signalled his readiness to counter oil price hikes following a request from the United States. However, Japan may struggle to justify such a move, as under its own laws the country can release reserves only at a time of supply constraints or natural disasters, but not to lower prices. The U.S. administration of President Joe Biden, who faces falling approval ratings and higher gasoline prices, has pressed some of the world's biggest economies to consider releasing oil from their strategic reserves to quell high energy prices. The requests include asking China for the first time to consider releasing stocks of crude. "We're proceeding with consideration as to what we can do legally on the premise that Japan will coordinate with the United States and other countries concerned," Kishida told reporters. "We want to draw a conclusion after thoroughly considering the situation each country faces and what Japan can do." Japan has tapped its reserves in the past to deal with the fallout of the Gulf War in the early 1990s and the deadly earthquake and tsunami in 2011. Chief Cabinet Secretary Hirokazu Matsuno said on Thursday that Tokyo was closely watching the impact of rising oil prices on the world's third-biggest economy. "While urging oil-producing nations to ramp up oil output, we will strive to stabilise energy markets by coordinating with major consumer nations and international organisations such as IEA (the International Energy Agency)," Matsuno said. Resource-poor Japan gets the vast majority of its oil from the Middle East. Recent surging oil prices and a weakening yen are driving up the cost of imports, dealing a double blow to a trade-dependent nation.
Iran Could Produce Billions Of Barrels From 4 Little-Known Oilfields -Ahead of the new iteration of the ‘Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action’ (JCPOA) that Iran expects to have in place before 20 March 2022, the country is looking to increase crude oil output not just from its major fields in West Karoun and shared fields with Iraq and others, but also from lesser known fields that nonetheless have billions of barrels of oil reserves, largely untapped. There are additional benefits to developing these fields: first, virtually all of their output has a guaranteed buyer in China, in line with the 25-year Iran-China deal; and, second, news relating to these lesser known fields is less likely to reach the Iranian public, which reacted very negatively when news of the scope of the Iran-China deal was made public. Such a site is Arvand, which is expected by the Arvandan Oil and Gas Production Company to see crude oil production reach 1.4 million barrels per day (bpd) by 2025. Located around 50 kilometres (km) south of Abadan in Khuzestan Province, Arvand is estimated to contain around one billion barrels of oil in place in three major layers – although all with an API gravity of between 39 and 43 - plus about 14 billion cubic metres of dry gas and 55 million barrels of gas condensate. Although there have been issues over which of the three countries – Iran, Iraq, or Kuwait - that contain parts of the reservoir has ownership over which parts of it, Tehran now believes that the matter has been largely settled, OilPrice.com understands from sources close to the Petroleum Ministry. “The section that was under dispute by Iran, Iraq, and Kuwait, is estimated to have reserves of 6 billion barrels, with at least 18 per cent of that deemed recoverable,” said one of the sources last week. Another such site is Doroud, estimated to contain 7.6 billion barrels of oil in place, from which only around 1.6 billion barrels have been recovered so far, given its shutdown over the course of the 1980-1988 Iran-Iraq War. After this, the first big development effort came in 1997 when 42 wells were drilled in the field, comprised of 19 offshore and 23 onshore. Two years later, Iran signed an agreement with French energy supermajor Total (now TotalEnergies) for the development of Doroud but its plan to inject gas into the field in a specifically sequenced schedule did not happen and the project was halted. According to Iran’s Petroleum Ministry, a correctly sequenced programme of enhanced oil recovery (EOR) techniques across the site would mean another 1 billion barrels at least of oil being recovered quickly and, according to oil industry sources in Iran, the long-term figure could be another 2 billion barrels.
‘Infuriating’ Report Reveals ‘Breathtaking Cover-Up’ of US Airstrike That Killed Syrian Civilians -- Advocacy groups, human rights defenders, fellow reporters, and other readers of The New York Times were outraged Saturday after journalists Dave Philipps and Eric Schmitt published their investigation into a deadly 2019 U.S. airstrike in Syria and all that followed.“This NYT report on the cover-up of U.S. war crimes in Syria should make your blood boil,” Medea Benjamin, co-founder of the anti-war group CodePink, tweeted Sunday. “The U.S. wantonly kills civilians, covers it up, and then tells other countries how ‘democracy’ works. Infuriating.”Evan Hill, a journalist on the Times‘ visual investigations team, said that “this is a long, complicated story, but it’s one that touches on nearly every problem with the global U.S. air war. At every attempt, the military tried to cover it up.”The Times began by detailing the scene over two years ago, when the U.S. military was using a drone near the Syrian town of Baghuz to search for Islamic State of Iraq and Syria militants, and encountered women and children along a river bank:Without warning, an American F-15E attack jet streaked across the drone’s high-definition field of vision and dropped a 500-pound bomb on the crowd, swallowing it in a shuddering blast. As the smoke cleared, a few people stumbled away in search of cover. Then a jet tracking them dropped one 2,000-pound bomb, then another, killing most of the survivors.It was March 18, 2019. At the U.S. military’s busy Combined Air Operations Center at Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar, uniformed personnel watching the live drone footage looked on in stunned disbelief, according to one officer who was there.“Who dropped that?” a confused analyst typed on a secure chat system being used by those monitoring the drone, two people who reviewed the chat log recalled. Another responded, “We just dropped on 50 women and children.”An initial battle damage assessment quickly found that the number of dead was actually about 70. After the strike, civilian observers “found piles of dead women and children,” reported Philipps and Schmitt, who spent months investigating one of the largest civilian casualty incidents of the war against ISIS, relying on confidential documents, descriptions of classified reports, and interviews.A legal officer flagged the strike as a possible war crime that required an investigation. But at nearly every step, the military made moves that concealed the catastrophic strike,” the pair explained. “The death toll was downplayed. Reports were delayed, sanitized, and classified. United States-led coalition forces bulldozed the blast site. And top leaders were not notified.”
China Left in Shock Following Brutal Killing of Corgi During Covid-19 Disinfection – WSJ —The fatal beating of a pet corgi by epidemic prevention workers disinfecting a residential building linked to a Covid-19 outbreak in southeastern China has sparked outrage in China, leading some pet owners and animal rights activists to question the extent of China’s stringent pandemic-control measures.On Friday, the corgi’s owner shared security footage showing her dog cowering behind a table as two people wearing hazmat suits walk toward it, with one brandishing an iron rod. As the two workers step past the dog’s cow-print bed, one of them hits the dog in the face with the rod as it tries to escape to the other room, after which it runs out of the frame.In a video interview with a local media outlet, the dog’s owner, identified only by her surname Fu, said she witnessed the beating through an app on her phone connected to her home security camera and used a speaker embedded in the camera to beg the workers to leave her dog alone, but her pleas were ignored.Ms. Fu said she heard the dog crying off camera and later saw the workers carrying a yellow bag away after the whimpers stopped. Blood could be seen on the ground afterward, she said.She didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment. Chinese social media erupted with commentary and outrage at the death of the dog. Some questioned how they could still trust the system. “A lot of people are compliant. They stop going out, wear masks every day, and even order takeout instead of going to restaurants,” read one post on the popular app WeChat. “Then they are quarantined through no fault of their own and their pets are killed—who can feel safe cooperating with the quarantine?”
India reopens to vaccinated travelers as more Asian countries loosen travel rules. The Indian government announced on Monday that it would allow vaccinated foreign visitors into the country for the first time in more than 20 months, delivering a boost to a battered tourism industry as coronavirus cases ease and vaccinations pick up across Asia.As India emerges from a devastating second wave of the virus last spring — with new cases averaging about 20,000 daily, down from a peak of more than 400,000 — it has begun to allow quarantine-free entry to fully inoculated tourists from 99 reciprocating countries.In 2020, the country drew just 2.74 million foreign tourists, down from 10.93 million the previous year, according to government data. Before the pandemic, tourism constituted about 7 percent of the country’s economic output and brought in $30 billion in foreign exchange in 2019.Last month, India said it would resume allowing chartered flights, although few have arrived because those flights tend to be booked far in advance. Monday’s announcement expands the rule to all flights from 99 countries that allow vaccinated Indian travelers. But travelers from several major countries — including China, Britain and Canada — are not included because their countries have not reopened to visitors from India.Rajiv Mehra, a top official at the Indian Association of Tour Operators, said that it would take months before the new arrivals would start making an impact on local economies. But he said that it was a sign of confidence in the country’s vaccination rollout that visitors from so many countries will be allowed to come in without going into quarantine.
Philippine politics is so unpredictable that Duterte looks set to run against his own daughter for VP - — Philippine president Rodrigo Duterte appears ready to face off against his daughter, Sara Duterte-Carpio, in a bid for the vice presidency next year — the latest development in a competitive, unpredictable race.A spokeswoman confirmed the younger Duterte’s candidacy for vice president on Saturday. Shortly afterward, Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos Jr., the son of a dictator who ruled the country for two decades, posted that his party would adopt and endorse her — which would effectively make her his running mate.Also Saturday, presidential communications secretary Martin Andanar told the local press that Duterte-Carpio’s father would run against her and would file his candidacy on Monday. The older Duterte has previously announced his retirement from politics several times.Sara Duterte-Carpio, whose father, Rodrigo Duterte, is the current Philippine president, filed her candidacy for vice president on Nov. 13. (Reuters)Duterte-Carpio had yet to publicly accept the resolution from Marcos’s camp. The Dutertes and Marcoses are two of the most formidable political dynasties in a country where governance is fraught with corruption and patronage. The developments send mixed signals both to their supporters and critics, but nothing is certain until the deadline for candidacy substitutions closes on Monday.
Baltic index slides to 5-month low as capesize, panamax rates retreat - (Reuters) - The Baltic Exchange's dry bulk sea freight index on Tuesday declined to its lowest since early June, weighed down by a drop in demand for its larger capesize and panamax vessel segments.
- * The overall index .BADI , which factors in rates for capesize, panamax and supramax vessels, fell 168 points, or 6.1%, to 2,591, its lowest level since June 9.
- * The main index was down for a fourth straight session.
- * The capesize index .BACI shed 369 points, or 9.8%, to an over one-week low of 3,383.
- * Average daily earnings for capesizes, which transport 150,000-tonne cargoes such as iron ore and coal, fell $3,054 to $28,059.
- * China's coking coal futures dived more than 9% on Tuesday, extending losses for a third straight session amid increasing coal supply and tepid demand at coking plants.
- * The panamax index .BPNI fell 175 points, or 6.1%, to an over six-month trough of 2,675.
- * Average daily earnings for panamaxes, which ferry 60,000-70,000 tonne coal or grain cargoes, decreased $1,575 to $24,072.
- * The supramax index .BSIS gained 4 points to 2,263.
NATO chief warns of 'significant' Russian military build-up along Ukraine border - The head of NATO said Monday that the military alliance is closely monitoring large concentrations of Russian forces close to Ukraine's borders and is urging Moscow to be "transparent" and "prevent escalation" in a bid to reduce tensions.NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said on Twitter that he had met with Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba to discuss to situation near the Ukrainian-Russian border.“What we see is a significant, large Russian military build-up, we see an unusual concentration of troops and we know Russia has been willing to use these types of military capabilities before to conduct aggressive actions against Ukraine,” Stoltenberg told reporters in Brussels, Bloomberg reported."Russia’s military [maneuvers], the energy crisis in Europe, the dramatic use of migrants as a weapon on Poland’s and Lithuania’s borders with Belarus, and massive disinformation are not isolated," Kuleba said in a tweet.The Ukrainian diplomat said it was all part of what he called "Russia’s hybrid war on the European and Euro-Atlantic community."Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said on Nov. 13 that about 100,000 Russian soldiers and heavy equipment, including tanks, were being moved close to the shared border with Ukraine, according to Reuters.The troop movement on the Russian side has caused fears of a possible invasion. Secretary of State Antony Blink said last week that the U.S. is concerned Russia may launch an invasion of Ukraine and attempt a land-grab similar to its military takeover of the Crimean Peninsula in 2014. “Our concern is that Russia may make the serious mistake of attempting to rehash what it undertook back in 2014, when it amassed forces along the border, crossed into sovereign Ukrainian territory and did so claiming — falsely — that it was provoked,” he added.
Europe toughens rules for the unvaccinated as another Covid wave arrives.— As temperatures drop and coronavirus infections spike across Europe, some countries are introducing increasingly targeted restrictions against the unvaccinated who officials say are driving another wave of contagion and putting economic recoveries, public health and an eventual return to prepandemic freedoms at risk. On Monday, the Austrian government cracked down on its unvaccinated population over the age of 12, restricting their movement to traveling for work, school, buying groceries and medical care. New cases have more than doubled in Austria in the last two weeks. Across Europe countries are passing rules and measures to make life harder for the unvaccinated with the goal of motivating them to get a shot. In Italy, vaccination, recent recovery from the virus, or frequent negative swabs are required to work. In Germany, the incoming government has said it will impose stricter rules against unvaccinated people, including mandating that they obtain a negative coronavirus test before traveling on buses or trains. In France, booster shots will become requisite for people 65 and older who want to secure a health pass. Taken together, the measures are a bleak sign that a virus is still a threat to Europe, which reported a 10 percent increase in deaths and a 7 percent increase in new infections in the first week of November, compared to the previous week. The World Health Organization warned recently that half a million people on the continent could die from Covid in the next few months. While the hospitalizations and deaths were mostly in Eastern Europe, the new wave threatened economic recoveries and Christmas vacations across the continent. A return to normalcy predicated on the success of vaccination campaigns seemed increasingly threatened by the unvaccinated who offered the virus room to run. This is especially the case in Eastern Europe. Romania, which has Europe’s second-lowest vaccination rate, recently reported the world’s highest per capita death rate from Covid-19. In Bulgaria, hospitals are inundated. Last month, the small Baltic nation of Latvia responded to its outbreak with a full lockdown. Russia and Ukraine, which each have vaccination rates below 50 percent, also introduced widespread restrictions.
Latvia bans unvaccinated MPs from voting and suspends pay - Latvian MPs who have not been vaccinated or recovered from COVID-19 will have their pay suspended and no longer be able to take part in parliamentary votes.MPs approved the measure in a vote on Friday with 62 votes in favour in the 100-seat parliament."From November 15, an MP will be entitled to participate in the work of the Saeima [Latvia's Parliament] only if he or she has presented an interoperable COVID-19 certificate confirming the fact of vaccination or illness," the statement from the parliament press office states."The payment of a monthly salary and compensation will be suspended for a Saeima MP who will not be entitled to participate in the work of the parliament," it adds.The measure also applies to local government lawmakers and will come into force as the country exits its latest one-month lockdown.Since October 21, all non-essential stores -- as well as cultural and leisure venues -- have been closed with public gatherings banned and private gatherings only allowed among one household. A nighttime curfew from 20:00 until 05:00 is also currently in force.Starting next week, the country will enter a "green mode" with different rules for vaccinated and unvaccinated people.Only 53.6% of Latvia's 1.9 million population is fully vaccinated, well below the EU average of 64.9%.The country is currently categorised as of "high concern" by the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC).; The public health agency noted that the hospital admission and occupancy rates in Latvia over the past week were among the highest in the 31 countries in the EU/EEA region. The country has reported 236,765 infections since the beginning of the pandemic and 3,646 deaths.
Austria likely to approve lockdown for unvaccinated people - – Austria’s government is likely to decide on Sunday to impose a lockdown on people who are not fully vaccinated against the coronavirus as daily infections have surged to record levels, Chancellor Alexander Schallenberg said on Friday.Schallenberg did not say when the lockdown would take effect, but the two provinces hardest-hit by this wave of infections, Upper Austria and Salzburg, will introduce the measure for themselves on Monday.Roughly 65% of Austria’s population is fully vaccinated against COVID-19, one of the lowest rates in Western Europe. Many Austrians are sceptical about vaccines, a view encouraged by the far-right Freedom Party, the third-biggest in parliament.“The aim is very clear: that we give the green light this Sunday for a nationwide lockdown for the unvaccinated,” Schallenberg, a conservative, told a news conference, adding that intensive-care units are increasingly strained.“The development is such that I do not think it is sensible to wait … We will take this step now and my wish is that we take this step on Sunday and nationally for all nine provinces.” Schallenberg said on Thursday the unvaccinated would face the same restrictions on their daily movements that the whole country endured in three lockdowns last year.Schallenberg wants to avoid placing further restrictions on those who are vaccinated to encourage holdouts to get a shot. Health Minister Wolfgang Mueckstein said health workers will be required to get vaccinated.In possibly a bigger blow to Austria’s economy than the planned lockdown its biggest source of tourists, Germany, will classify the country a high-risk region as of Sunday, imposing a quarantine on people arriving from there. Austria is a popular destination for winter sports.Infections are surging across Europe as colder weather sets in and Netherlands is expected to announce a three-week partial lockdown that would apply to the whole population.
The McDonaldization of German Universities -Germany’s universities employ about 760,000 people. Among them are 49,000 professors and other academics. For Germany’s peak trade union body, the DGB, the university, TU Berlin undertook a study on working conditions of German academics and general staff. They asked staff working at Germany’s 201 universities of Applied Science (Fachhochschule), 108 universities, 52 art colleges, 30 colleges for government, administration, and bureaucracy, 16 religious colleges, and six colleges dedicated to education. In short, Germany’s higher education sector encompasses 413 institutions.For their study, TU Berlin used a whopping 11,000 online questionnaires in which, 5,700 were returned from academics and 4,800 from general staff. 31 universities and 24 Fachhochschulen were included. Survey returns were split 50/50 among men and women.Virtually, the same can be said for full-time and part time employment – roughly 50% of each group returned their survey. Yet, the most disturbing figure out of the entire survey is the fact that, a staggering 78% of all employees at Germany’s higher education sector are casual staff – which means, only 22% are in full-time employment. In other words, the McDonaldization of German higher education is in a very advanced stage. Next to McDonaldization’s four core elements – efficiency, calculability,predictability/standardization, and control– the casualization of a workforce, is yet another clear indicator of the advancement of McDonaldization. Academics are no longer excluded from this, even when 62% of German academics employed in higher education hold a Master’s Degree and 34% hold a PhD. High levels of educational achievement is no longer a protection for McDonaldization, casualization, and the infamous precariat. Yet, compared to academics, the casualization of work is at a much lower level when it comes to general staff. Compared to the overall number of employees at Germany’s higher education sector, the situation is actually reversed. Just 16% of all admin workers are casuals. In other words, 84% of workers in IT, administration, the library, etc. are employed on a permanent contract-basis. In short, many academics are casuals while most admin staff is permanent. Unlike them, academics have experienced a significant level of casualization – a global phenomenon. This impacts on the quality of work that the academics do.
Covid-19 deaths and illness of UK children justified in the interests of big business - At the weekend Bracknell Forest Council posted a message and photograph of 12-year-old Ciara, shared with permission from her parents. The message from the council read, “This picture was at RBH before being blue lighted to Oxford JR. The JR pictures of Ciara are too distressing to post.” Only last month, 15-year-old Jorja Halliday, from Portsmouth died from Covid. Bravely, her mother shared news of her daughter’s death to warn of the danger. Jorja’s death, and that of 110 other child victims of the pandemic in the UK, received barely any coverage. Seven children lost their lives due to Covid-19 in the last week recorded by the Office for National Statistics. Covid-19 has been responsible for one in 28 deaths of children and young people (5-19) this year. Most of those who have died, and those made critically ill, remain nameless, their plight and the suffering of their families and loved ones expunged from any mention in the media, or by the government and the Labour Party, because it would puncture the lying narrative that children are unaffected by Covid-19. Ciara’s plight was shared to warn people of the need to “wear masks and sanitise”. But mask wearing, as with other mitigations, was ended as a legal requirement in England on July 19 (August 7 in Wales, August 9 in Scotland). Nature magazine wrote that, as “one of the first countries to trust high vaccine coverage and public responsibility alone to control the spread of SARS CoV-2, the United Kingdom has become a control experiment that scientists across the world are studying.” The “control experiment” saw three million infections between July and October this year. This criminal policy of herd immunity, which is leading daily to upwards of 35,000 infections and 150-plus deaths, requires the normalisation of death.
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