FOMC Launches $15BN Taper, Reiterates Inflation 'Transitory', No Rate Hike Discussion --Since the last FOMC statement (and press conference) on Sept 22nd, when the 't-word' was first uttered with malice, stocks have soared higher, bonds are ugly and gold and dollar are barely changed...(see related graphs) But, in what Peter Thiel calls "the most honest market we have," bitcoin has soared to new record highs since the last Fed statement... As the market has ripped extremely hawkishly, implying more than 2 rate-hikes by the end of next year and pulling forward the first rate-hike expectations to June... Dramatically more hawkish than The Fed's dot-plot would suggest... But the market is also beginning to price in a policy error (which can be seen in the chart above also) as the yield ruve has collapsed since the last Fed statement Which is something many are watching to see if Powell jawbones that down while tapering today, offering a 'bullish' reason for buying moar stonks after all. The trajectory of the taper is widely expected to be as follows ($15 billion per month split 5/10 between MBS and TSY)... Which fits with the market's pricing a 70% chance of a hike by June 2022 and a 97% chance of a hike by July. And The Fed delivered with taper starting in November at $15 billion per month: The statement says that the Committee “decided to begin reducing the monthly pace of its net asset purchases by $10 billion for Treasury securities and $5 billion for agency mortgage-backed securities..” The pace of tapering “will likely be appropriate each month,” but the board “is prepared to adjust the pace of purchases if warranted by changes in the economic outlook,” the statement says. The Fed seems less confident in its transitory view, changing the statement from: “Inflation is elevated, largely reflecting transitory factors" ...to... "Inflation is elevated, largely reflecting factors that are expected to be transitory." Offering some explanation for inflation also: “Supply and demand imbalances related to the pandemic and the reopening of the economy have contributed to sizable price increases in some sectors.” All of which suggests a more hawkish/concerned bias on inflation.
Fed tapers asset purchases amid rising inflation and growing economic uncertainty -As expected, the US Federal Reserve yesterday announced it will reduce its purchases of financial assets each month in a tapering process that is set to conclude in the middle of next year. Starting this month, the Fed will cut its purchases of US Treasury bonds by $10 billion followed by the same amount in December. The purchases of mortgage-backed securities will be reduced by $5 billion per month. The Fed said, while there could be adjustments next year if warranted by changes in economic outlook, it expected there would be similar monthly reductions. This means the $120 billion per month asset purchasing program that began as a result of a meltdown of financial markets in March 2020 at the start of the pandemic would come to an end in June 2022. In his prepared remarks for a news conference at the conclusion of the Fed’s two-day meeting, chair Jerome Powell reassured financial markets the decision to wind back asset purchases did not mean a rise in the central bank’s base interest rate—now at virtually zero—was imminent. “Our decision today to begin tapering does not imply any direct signal regarding our interest rate policy,” he said. “We continue to articulate a different and more stringent test for the economic conditions that would need to be met before raising the federal funds rate.” He also made the point that even after the Fed’s balance sheet stopped expanding “our holdings of securities will continue to support accommodative financial conditions.” The Fed now has more than $8 trillion of financial assets on its balance sheet, with its holdings having doubled in response to the March 2020 crisis. The Fed has led the way in a massive expansion of asset purchases, with the Bank of America estimating that since the global financial crisis of 2008 the world’s central banks have pumped $23 trillion into the financial system through various quantitative easing programs. The Fed decision, and particularly its insistence that its base interest rate was not going to increase any time soon, was warmly received on Wall Street, with the three major indexes all closing at record highs. However, it has been a different story in bond markets which have seen major turbulence over the past two weeks as fears that inflation, far from being “transitory,” as the Fed has continually claimed, is becoming entrenched. Major hedge fund investors which bought into the Fed’s “transitory” claim have been hit by significant losses as yields in the short-term bond market rose significantly on inflation fears. Bonds have been sold off and their prices have fallen causing the yield to rise (they have an inverse relationship). As the Financial Times (FT) reported earlier this week: “Short-dated borrowing costs have surged everywhere. US two-year yields hit 0.55 percent on Friday, their highest since before the pandemic and up from 0.21 percent a month ago.” The numbers may be small, but in terms of bond market trading they are significant. Earlier this week, the sell-off in short-term bond markets forced the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to abandon its attempt to maintain the yield on a 2024 bond at 0.1 percent when its rate in the market rose to 0.8 percent.
A full recap of the Fed's market-moving decision and Powell's press conference -Powell said that the Fed is working to reform its rules on if and how its senior officials can own and trade securities, and added that he's asked the Inspector General if any central bank leaders broke the law when they traded equities during the Covid-19 pandemic last year. "The ethics system that had been in place for decades and had – as far as we know – served us well. And then that was no longer the case. So, we had no moment of denial about that," he said. His remarks come weeks after trading by regional Fed presidents drew scrutiny from both Washington and Wall Street. Both Robert Kaplan, formerly of the Dallas Fed, and Eric Rosengren, formerly of the Boston Fed, resigned last month amid the fallout. Powell said he has asked the Inspector General to handle the investigation, that he won't speculate on its outcome and that it's no longer in his hands. "As a group, we stepped in and we took the actions that we took. And, you know, within one FOMC cycle we announced a new set of rules to try to put us back where we need to be. Which is, we need to have the complete trust of the American people, that we're working in their interest all the time." When asked about the Fed's pace in addressing inflation, Chair Jerome Powell said the central bank is changing monetary policy appropriately. "I don't think that we're behind the curve. I actually believe that policy is well-positioned to address the range of plausible outcomes, and that's what we need to do," Powell said. Powell said there is "still ground to cover" in the labor market recovery to reach "maximum employment." "Our policy will continue to adapt as is appropriate," Powell said. Federal Reserve Jerome Powell said that in Wednesday's statement the central bank took a step back from the word "transitory," which it had been using to describe the impact of inflation, due in part to confusion around various understandings of the term. "Transitory is a word that has had different understandings," he said. "For some, it carries a sense of short-lived. There's a real time component, measured in months, let's say. Really for us, what transitory has meant is that if something is transitory it will not leave behind permanently – or very persistently higher – inflation. So that's why we took a step back from transitory. We said 'expected to be transitory.'" Powell also said the current level of inflation is not consistent with price stability and that the central bank would "use our tools as appropriate to get inflation under control."
The Fed Lost Control of the Inflation Narrative - By Wolf Richter -- The story being propagated by the Fed is that the supply-chain nightmare caused this burst of inflation, the worst in decades. Inflation is taking off in other countries as well, with multi-decade highs in Germany, in Europe generally, in Canada, and other places. This has spread across big parts of the globe. But the Fed and the US government have refused to take responsibility for this bout of inflation and have blamed the supply chain snags and labor shortages, and have called this inflation “temporary” and “transitory,” denying that their reckless money-printing and interest-rate policies, and the immense deficit spending have anything to do with it. But the Fed has lost control of the narrative. In the 20 months since March 2020, the Fed has increased the assets on its balance sheet by $4.2 trillion, having nearly doubled its total assets to $8.6 trillion. This is a huge amount of money-creation. And this money went everywhere. It ballooned asset prices, which made asset holders a lot richer. Real estate, stocks, cryptos, a bunch of other assets. It’s the Everything Bubble. The Fed did this to create what it calls the Wealth Effect. This has been spelled out in official papers by the Fed. The idea is that when these folks get richer, they’re going to spend some of this new wealth. And when interest rates are low, they can cheaply borrow against their assets, rather than having to sell them, and they can spend this borrowed money. This happened via cash-out refis of home mortgages, it happened via leverage in the stock market, which has ballooned to records, it happened via outfits that allow crypto-owners to borrow against their crypto-holdings. Leverage surged across the board. And this money was spent, and will get spent, providing lots of fuel that didn’t come from labor. Then there were the government stimulus programs, not just for the unemployed and for people under a certain income level, but for businesses, such as the PPP loans which went largely to people who didn’t need them, as we now know. The rules were loose, and folks didn’t need to break the rules to get this money. Over $800 billion in PPP loans were given out, most of them forgivable. And some of this money was spent on fancy cars and other stuff and provided more fuel that didn’t come from labor Big companies too got lots of stimulus money, and it was spent and invested. And states and municipal governments got lots of stimulus money, and this is being spent, and all of it will provide more fuel that didn’t come from labor. Nothing was designed for this type of burst of demand. But that demand didn’t come out of nowhere. It was purposefully fired up by $4.2 trillion in money printing in 20 months in the US alone, and by $5.4 trillion in deficit spending, based on how much the US national debt has soared over the period – by $5.4 trillion in 20 months. Combined, nearly $10 trillion in total stimulus. And it’s still going on. Every major company is now talking about current price increases, and about future price increases, and surging costs of materials and components and labor. The Fed is still trying to blame shortages that suddenly came out of nowhere. But they didn’t come out of nowhere. The Fed engaged in a huge amount of money-printing to inflate asset prices so that the people who’d made those gains would spend some of them and would further stimulate demand. And the government had a massive bout of deficit spending to boost demand.It wasn’t just in the US but globally. In the US all this was magnified, with nearly $10 trillion in stimulus, that $4.2 trillion in money printing and $5.4 trillion in deficit spending. And it shows up everywhere.Those $10 trillion are circulating, and they’re causing all kinds of things to happen, all kinds of distortions, and excess liquidity, and asset price inflation. The record amount of leverage multiplies all of this. And people react.There are an infinite number of moving parts. But the only thing that came out of nowhere was the explosion of money printing and deficit spending. And the moving parts began to react in countless ways. Some of those ways were very predictable, such as a surge in demand. That was planned even.So now we’ve got that, and central bankers and government officials are surprised that for the first time in decades, after nearly $10 trillion in monetary and fiscal stimulus in just 20 months in the US alone, inflation has exploded?What is happening is that the Fed has lost control of its narrative that it had nothing to do with this inflation, that it’s just some supply chain issues that came out of nowhere. The Fed is still telling one story, when reality has already taken off to go its own way.
Here's how the Federal Reserve plans to deal with rising inflation : NPR -The Federal Reserve is caught in a delicate balancing act as it tries to steer the country out of an unprecedented pandemic. On one side, the Fed feels the economy still needs help given that the U.S. has yet to recover nearly 5 million jobs that were lost during the pandemic. But the Fed is also facing another opposing problem: Inflation has climbed to its highest level in three decades as Americans have gone on a spending spree that has sparked widespread shortages. For now the Fed is straddling a middle line as it navigates the uneven economic recovery. At their meeting on Wednesday, Fed policymakers left interest rates near zero as part of a long-term strategy to get the country back to full employment. But the central bank also announced a plan to start winding down another effort it undertook to help the economy through the pandemic: its purchases of at least $120 billion worth of bonds each month. That policy was designed to help keep borrowing costs across the economy low, since bond markets help determine the rates consumers pay for auto loans and home mortgages. The Fed is expected to phase out the bond purchases by the middle of next year, although that pace could change if economic conditions warrant.#160;The tapering of bond purchases was telegraphed well in advance and investors took the news in stride. Whether the Fed can successfully straddle that middle line is uncertain given that inflation has proved to be more stubborn than many forecasters expected. Consumer prices, as measured by the Fed's preferred yardstick, were 4.4% higher in September than they were a year ago. That's the highest annual inflation since 1991 and more than double the Fed's long-term target of 2%. Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell acknowledged the hardship that persistently higher prices can cause. "Particularly people who are living paycheck-to-paycheck are seeing higher grocery costs, higher gasoline costs, when the winter comes higher heating costs for their homes," Powell told reporters. "We understand completely what they're going through and we will use our tools over time to make sure that that doesn't become a permanent feature of life." But Powell argued that it's premature to employ the Fed's primary tool for fighting inflation: higher interest rates. "We want to see the labor market heal further," he said.
Biden meets with Fed's Jerome Powell and Lael Brainard as nomination decision nears President Joe Biden met with Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell and Governor Lael Brainard on this week as the administration decides whom to nominate to lead the central bank for the next four years, according to a person familiar with the matter. Powell and Brainard, who met with Biden separately, are seen as the two most likely candidates to lead the globe's most powerful central bank, which sets interest rates, works to control inflation and oversees the country's largest banks. The person told CNBC that the president has not made a final decision on who will lead the Fed. Washington and Wall Street expect a choice in the coming days. The Democrat-controlled Senate would likely confirm either candidate as Fed chief. The Republican Powell could face resistance from progressives, and the Democrat Brainard would face opposition from the GOP. At least a handful of moderate Democrats, and virtually every Senate Republican, would be expected to support Powell as an endorsement of his steady hand at the Fed. The central bank flooded the U.S. economy with cash in the spring of 2020 to combat the spike in unemployment and recession sparked by the Covid-19 outbreak in the U.S. Wall Street credits the big-ticket monetary policy for stabilizing financial markets and keeping interest rates low. Brainard is widely considered the top candidate for the open vice chair for supervision post if she is not tapped as chair. In that role, Brainard would become one of the nation's top banking regulators and a key deputy to the chair.
Fed officials violated ethics rules with trading, Powell says - Senior Federal Reserve officials violated the central bank’s prohibition of stock trading that may appear improper, even if specific guidelines weren’t broken, Chair Jerome Powell said. “We didn’t imagine the problems that happened,” Powell said in a press briefing Wednesday. “They may have actually been, I don’t know this, but they have actually been in compliance with the specifics of our rules. They were clearly not in compliance with the part of our rules that said don’t do anything that would create a bad appearance. That’s clear this was a bad appearance.” The Fed announced last month it will bansenior officials from buying individual stocks and bonds as well as limit active trading after embarrassing revelations that contributed to two top officials stepping down. Powell said the rule changes were necessary to show officials have “a single-minded focus on the public mission of the Federal Reserve.”
Prior to the Fed’s Trading Scandal, an Axios/Ipsos Poll Found 53 Percent of Americans Didn’t Trust the Fed - Pam Martens --On April 5 of this year, Axios ran this headline: “Poll indicates low trust, poor public perception of the Fed.” Axios had commissioned an Ipsos poll which found that 53 percent of Americans didn’t trust the U.S. central bank, the Federal Reserve. An earlier Axios/Ipsos poll released on February 23 had found that a stunning 60 percent of Americans didn’t trust the Fed.Both of those polls were taken before the trading scandal at the Fed further damaged its credibility.Those poll numbers likely explain why Fed Chairman Jerome Powell uses every press conference he conducts as an opportunity to state that the Fed’s priority is to work for the American people. Unfortunately, the facts keep getting in the way of that statement.Powell held another of his press conferences yesterday and did more harm to the Fed’s credibility by making statements that simply don’t correlate to the facts on the ground. The question came from Politico’s Victoria Guida. The exchange went as follows:
- Guida: “Hi Chair Powell. So the Fed recently announced that there’s going to be new conflict of interest rules for investments by Fed officials. And this follows, obviously, the resignation of two regional Fed presidents. And I’m just wondering, do you think that there’s more that you will need to do to rebuild the credibility of the Fed, such as requiring officials to put their assets in blind trusts? And, also, if you could speak to whether you have any concerns that any rules or laws were broken by Fed officials. Thank you.”
- Powell: “Let me just say that the ethics system we had in place, had in place for decades, and had, as far as we know, served us well. And then that was no longer the case. And so we had no moment of denial about that. As a group, we stepped in and we took the actions that we took. And within one FOMC cycle, we announced a new set of rules to try to put us back where we need to be, which is we need to have the complete trust of the American people — that we’re working in their interest all the time. Absolutely critical to our work, as it is for any government agency. And I feel like this called that into question. So we reacted. I would characterize it, strongly and forcefully. If there were other things that we could do that were reasonable, we would certainly do them. So you asked about blind trusts, the overall authority for ethics around these issues in the federal government is the Office of Government Ethics, OGE. And they have a long-held position which is not favorable to blind trusts. They do not encourage them. They don’t think they’re effective. They think they’re cumbersome. And they think they’re better ways to get at the things that need to be done. And those are the things that we’re actually doing. So I don’t know that there are any blind trusts for that reason because they’re the regulator. They say this on their website if you look. In terms of laws broken, I asked the Inspector General to look to see whether there were rules broken and whether there were laws broken. And I won’t speculate on that, but that is with the Inspector General now, and, of course, out of my hands.”
Economic Activity and Inflation Measures for September - Menzie Chinn - While the GDP release dominated the news, we got new looks at economic activity and price pressures on Friday.First, economic activity according to some key indicators followed by the NBER: Figure 1: Nonfarm payroll employment from August release (dark blue), industrial production (red), personal income excluding transfers in Ch.2012$ (green), manufacturing and trade sales in Ch.2012$ (black), consumption in Ch.2012$ (light blue), and monthly GDP in Ch.2012$ (pink), all log normalized to 2020M02=0. NBER defined recession dates shaded gray. Source: BLS, Federal Reserve, BEA, via FRED, IHS Markit (nee Macroeconomic Advisers) (10/1/2021 release), NBER, and author’s calculations.Consumption remained at elevated levels, but personal income excluding transfers are only at pre-pandemic levels, in real terms. This is against a backdrop of other slowing indicators in September.Second, inflation in September, including the personal consumption expenditure deflator numbers, which were released on Friday. These were in line with expectations. Figure 2: Month-on-month annualized inflation from CPI-all urban (blue), from personal consumption expenditure (PCE) deflator (black), chained CPI seasonally adjusted (brown), sticky price CPI (green), and 16% trimmed mean CPI (red). Chained CPI inflation seasonally adjusted by author. NBER defined recession dates shaded gray. Source: BLS, Atlanta Fed, Cleveland Fed, via FRED, NBER, and author’s calculations. Figure 3: Month-on-month annualized inflation from CPI-all urban (blue), from personal consumption expenditure (PCE) deflator (black), chained CPI seasonally adjusted (brown), and sticky price CPI (green). Chained CPI inflation seasonally adjusted by author. NBER defined recession dates shaded gray. Source: BLS, Atlanta Fed, Cleveland Fed, via FRED, NBER, and author’s calculations.What is interesting is that while the CPI based inflation indicators blipped upward, the PCE deflator inflation continued a downward trend.CEA notes that year-on-year PCE inflation is being driven by developments in the indices from about 4-5 months ago.
Seven High Frequency Indicators for the Economy --for travel and entertainment. The TSA is providing daily travel numbers. This data is as of October 31st. This data shows the 7-day average of daily total traveler throughput from the TSA for 2019 (Light Blue), 2020 (Blue) and 2021 (Red). The 7-day average is down 17.8% from the same day in 2019 (82.2% of 2019). (Dashed line) The second graph shows the 7-day average of the year-over-year change in diners as tabulated by OpenTable for the US and several selected cities. This data is updated through October 30, 2021. This data is "a sample of restaurants on the OpenTable network across all channels: online reservations, phone reservations, and walk-ins. Dining picked up for the Labor Day weekend, but declined after the holiday - but might be picking up a little again. The 7-day average for the US is down 4% compared to 2019. This data shows domestic box office for each week and the median for the years 2016 through 2019 (dashed light blue). The data is from BoxOfficeMojo through October 28th. Movie ticket sales were at $112 million last week, down about 25% from the median for the week. This graph shows the seasonal pattern for the hotel occupancy rate using the four week average. This data is through October 23rd. The occupancy rate was down 9.1% compared to the same week in 2019. The Summer months had decent occupancy with solid leisure travel, and occupancy was only off about 7% in July and August compared to 2019. Usually weekly occupancy increases to around 70% in the weeks following Labor Day due to renewed business travel. However, this year, so far, business travel has been lighter than leisure travel in 2021. This graph, based on weekly data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), shows gasoline supplied compared to the same week of 2019. As of October 22nd, gasoline supplied was down 4.7% compared to the same week in 2019. There have been seven weeks so far this year when gasoline supplied was up compared to the same week in 2019 - and consumption is running close to 2019 levels now. This graph is from Apple mobility. From Apple: "This data is generated by counting the number of requests made to Apple Maps for directions in select countries/regions, sub-regions, and cities." However the index is set "relative to its weekday-specific average over January–February", and is not seasonally adjusted, so we can't tell if an increase in mobility is due to recovery or just the normal increase in the Spring and Summer.This data is through October 28th for the United States and several selected cities.According to the Apple data directions requests, public transit in the 7 day average for the US is at 114% of the January 2020 level. New York City is doing well by this metric, but New York subway usage is down sharply (next graph).
The Build Back Better Act’s macroeconomic boost looks more valuable by the day In previous work, Adam Hersh highlighted how the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act (IIJA) and the Build Back Better Act (BBBA) could provide a backstop against the possibility that economic growth slows due to slack in aggregate demand for goods and services in the next couple of years. Over the past few months, a pronounced uptick in inflation convinced far too many that the U.S. economy actually faced the opposite problem of macroeconomic overheating—an excess of aggregate demand.But late last week, the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released data making it clear that the U.S. economy is not overheating and that aggregate demand support in 2022 and 2023 could be vital to continued economic growth. Given this, the macroeconomic boost provided by the BBBA in coming years could be valuable indeed.In this post, I argue:
- The U.S. economy is demonstrably not overheating due to excess fiscal stimulus from earlier this year. In fact, deficient demand is as likely to be a constraint on economic growth going forward as constrained supply.
- The inflationary uptick in the spring and summer was driven by a sudden reallocation of spending, not a macroeconomic imbalance of overall aggregate demand and supply. In addition to this sharp reallocation of spending, sectoral supply-side bottlenecks also contributed to pushing up inflation.
- U.S. households would not be better off today had policymakers passed less fiscal relief earlier in 2021. The unexpected reallocation of spending, combined with supply-side bottlenecks, did contribute to the inflationary uptick in mid-year. This inflationary burst did, in turn, keep some of the full potential value of the fiscal relief from reaching households. But inflation-adjusted personal income for U.S. households is unambiguously higher due to the relief measures, and jobs and wage growth are better due to the stimulus provided.
- The data on gross domestic product (GDP) in the third quarter of 2021 released late last week show that the main source of inflationary pressure—the sharp reallocation of spending—is completely gone. The rapid run-up in spending on goods this past year reversed in the third quarter and contracted sharply. Going forward, if policymakers enact more-contractionary macroeconomic policy measures—either cutting back fiscal relief and recovery efforts or raising interest rates—they will commit a bad mistake, slowing growth in 2022 notably and halting the welcome rapid recovery that had been underway.
Below, I expand on each of these points.
Dems regroup with $555B climate spending hanging in balance - Democrats will try to regroup this week after face-planting last week in their attempt to land $2.75 trillion in domestic spending across infrastructure, social spending and climate policy. Last week’s failure to pass a pair of spending measures was a major setback for the party’s leadership, but weekend negotiations and the release of legislative language may have appeased lingering progressive holdouts. So much so that House leadership may try to vote on both early this week, a timeline that would align with President Biden’s appearance at the COP 26 summit in Glasgow, Scotland. To get there, however, lawmakers will need to nail down multiple aspects of the $1.75 trillion budget reconciliation package. Much of those discussions appear to be centered on health care and parental leave policy, with significant progress being made on drug pricing, according to Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.). “We worked yesterday. We’re working today. We’re going to work tomorrow to strengthen that bill.” House Democrats released draft text of the trimmed-down reconciliation package late last week, but in the end that didn’t seem to matter. Progressives balked at passing the bipartisan Senate bill, despite a Capitol Hill visit from Biden exhorting them to do so. Progressives continue to insist that the bipartisan infrastructure bill needs to be paired with the partisan reconciliation package, despite assurances from Democratic leadership that reconciliation would eventually get a vote (E&E Daily, Oct. 29). On Thursday, Congress instead passed a stopgap surface transportation measure. Biden signed it into law yesterday. At issue with Democrats is a monthslong staredown between House progressives and Senate moderates. Both Democratic Sens. Joe Manchin of West Virginia and Kyrsten Sinema of Arizona have nixed various spending amounts in the reconciliation package and multiple provisions within it. Late last week, Manchin declined repeatedly to endorse a framework Democrats had released for reconciliation. He eventually tweeted that the framework was "the product of months of negotiations and input from all members of the Democratic Party who share a common goal to deliver for the American people." Included in that reconciliation plan is $555 billion in climate-related spending, a total nearly five times as much as Congress has ever enacted into law to address the warming climate and threats of sea-level rise. The provisions include lengthy extensions for a number of renewable tax credits as well as an expansion of credits to clean energy technologies like energy storage and nuclear energy. It also contains a methane fee, supplemented by a $775 million methane improvement infrastructure rebate program, that would look to penalize and offset costs for oil and gas operators to better address methane leakage from their operations (E&E Daily, Oct. 29)
Manchin demands infrastructure vote; holds off support on spending bill - Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) on Monday demanded that the House immediately take up the Senate-passed bipartisan infrastructure bill while making it clear he's not yet ready to support a separate social and climate spending bill. Manchin, who called a press conference at the Capitol on Monday, railed against House progressives, accusing them of holding the infrastructure bill "hostage" while warning the tactics won't force him to commit to the separate $1.75 trillion spending bill before he is ready. "The political games have to stop," Manchin said. "Holding this bill hostage is not going to work in getting my support for the reconciliation bill." Manchin's comments come after the House failed to have a vote last week on the Senate-passed infrastructure bill — again — amid pushback from progressives, who believe that it needs to be moved with the reconciliation package that is expected to carry new funding for health care, education, child care and other priorities. It marked the second time that House leadership had canceled plans to hold a vote on the bill amid progressive pushback, and the decision to yank the bill came hours after President Biden tried to rally the House Democratic Caucus. "I’ve never seen anything like this. The president of the United States has addressed the House Democratic Caucus twice to urge action on the bipartisan infrastructure bill ... and still no action. In my view, this is not how the United States Congress should operate," said Manchin, who helped negotiate the bipartisan bill. Manchin's comments on Monday are likely the polar opposite of what progressives were hoping to hear from their moderate colleague. Progressives want a commitment from Manchin and Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (D-Ariz.) on the contents of the spending package. Progressives appeared increasingly optimistic before Manchin's press conference that behind-the-scenes negotiations were moving in their direction, allowing House Democrats to bring the spending bill and the infrastructure vote up on the floor as soon as this week. And Congressional Progressive Caucus Chairwoman Pramila Jayapal (D-Wash.) told CNN after Manchin’s press conference that she was going to “trust” that Biden could get 51 votes. “The president says he can get 51 votes for the bill. We are going to trust him. ... We're tired of continuing to wait for one or two people,” she said. A spokesperson for Jayapal didn't immediately respond to a request to questions about Manchin's statement. "We are now awaiting negotiations among senators on prescription drug pricing and child care and some details on immigration. But the Progressive Caucus, assuming good resolution of those issues from the Senate side ... will be excited to vote for both bills," Jayapal said earlier on MSNBC. Manchin made it clear that he's not yet ready to back the spending bill and warned Democrats against rushing before they know the costs of the bill.
Manchin didn't sign off on framework, no 'rush' to get deal - Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) said he didn’t sign off on a framework for a $1.75 trillion social spending bill before it was released from the White House and that he didn’t think there was a “rush” to get a deal. “No,” Manchin said, asked if he had signed off on the framework, adding that if he had, his current pushback wouldn’t be “genuine.” “The White House knew exactly where I stood. There was a couple of concerns that we had that we needed to work through,” Manchin said. “I've been here long enough to know that when you say you signed off on things, you got to keep your word and I'm not going to be a liar or make anyone else a liar, so that’s why I hadn’t,” he added. The White House unveiled the framework for the $1.75 trillion spending deal on Thursday, with White House officials predicting it would get support from all Democrats. Manchin, asked if he had thrown Biden a curveball as the president prepared to go overseas for an international climate change conference, pushed back, pointing to House progressives. “Not at all. I feel basically it's time to do something. The president's over there. He went there. He asked for something before he left and everyone ignored it. I didn't ignore it,” Manchin said, referring to Biden’s meeting with House Democrats. “It was very easy ask just vote for the bipartisan infrastructure bill. It has a tremendous amount of clean energy in it,” he added. Biden had hoped to attend a United Nations climate conference in Glasgow, Scotland, with evidence of the U.S. commitment to climate change after the Trump years, when the U.S. turned away from lowering emissions. Objections from Manchin, however, led to cuts to key programs that progressives had wanted to include in the framework's climate provisions. Manchin, who signaled last week that he had negotiated the top-line figure, made clear on Monday that he wasn’t yet ready to support it. House Democrats are hoping to vote on both the bipartisan infrastructure bill, which passed the Senate in August, and the social spending bill this week. Sen. Dick Durbin (D-Ill.) told The Hill that Senate Democrats are still hoping to pass the bill by Thanksgiving, giving them less than three weeks, though he acknowledged that wasn’t locked in. “It’s not a hard and fast prediction, but our hope is to get it done before Thanksgiving,” he said. But Manchin indicated that while he thinks Democrats will ultimately pass something — saying they are “going to get something done” — he didn’t view the weeklong break, scheduled to start on Nov. 22, as a hard deadline. “I’m not putting restraints on timing. I just think it’s going to take quite a while. ... I think time's going to be needed. We’re not in a rush right now,” Manchin said. He added on Tuesday that he wants a Congressional Budget Office analysis on the impact and the costs of the bill and still didn’t support including Medicare expansion or paid leave in the bill.
Sanders hits back at Manchin's spending concerns - Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) took a veiled swipe at Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) on Monday after the moderate senator raised a red flag about the costs of Democrats' social and climate spending bill. Sanders, speaking with reporters at the Capitol, didn’t mention Manchin by name, instead addressing “anybody in the Democratic caucus or elsewhere that’s worried about fiscal responsibility and the deficit.”“The fact is ... that, according to the CBO [Congressional Budget Office], the infrastructure bill runs up to a $250 billion deficit. It’s not paid for,” Sanders said. “The legislation that I wanna see passed ... is paid for in its entirety. It will not have an impact on inflation. So if we’re talking about fiscal responsibility, I think what we’re trying to do with the reconciliation bill is the right thing,” he added. The CBO estimated in August that the roughly $1 trillion infrastructure bill, which was negotiated by a group of senators, including Manchin, would add $256 billion to the deficit over the next decade.Supporters of the infrastructure bill argued that it was fully paid for and that the CBO analysis didn’t include all of their revenue streams, including unused coronavirus relief money. The CBO hasn’t released an estimate for the impact for the social and climate spending bill that is still being negotiated by the White House and congressional Democrats. But Manchin, during a press conference earlier Monday, raised concerns about the cost of the spending package and signaled that he wants to see a CBO analysis before the Senate votes.“Throughout the last three months, I have been straightforward about my concerns that I will not support a reconciliation package that expands social programs and irresponsibly adds to our nearly $29 trillion in national debt that no one else seems to care about. Nor will I support a package that risks hurting American families suffering from historic inflation,” Manchin said earlier.“Simply put, I will not support a bill that is this consequential without thoroughly understanding the impact it will have on our national debt, our economy and the American people,” he added.
Manchin frustrates Democrats with latest outburst -- Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) on Monday refused to sign off on a $1.75 trillion social spending and climate measure at the heart of President Biden’s economic agenda, throwing a wrench into plans for a swift House vote this week. Manchin accused the Democratic authors of the ambitious framework of using “shell games and budget gimmicks” to mask “the real cost” of the legislation, which he said could wind up being “twice as high” as advertised if its programs are extended. He called media reports asserting that he privately supports the White House framework as “mischaracterizations” and warned that he would not sign off until he fully understands how the complex legislation will impact an economy already flush with trillions of dollars of federal stimulus. He declared he wouldn’t vote for any bill without “thoroughly understanding the impact it will have on our national debt” and warned of the risk of “hurting American families suffering from historic inflation.” Manchin also called out House progressives who are holding up the $1 trillion bipartisan infrastructure bill that he helped negotiate in the upper chamber. He insisted that holding the bill hostage wouldn’t make him any more likely to agree to a bigger reconciliation bill. His words had a deflating effect on Democratic colleagues who had hoped Manchin would be more of a team player. “I say at some point, close the deal,” Senate Democratic Whip Dick Durbin (Ill.) said with a little exasperated sigh when asked by reporters about Manchin’s comments. Sen. Mazie Hirono (D-Hawaii) made it clear she’s not happy about Manchin latching onto Republican talking points about rising inflation and that investing in social priorities such as expanding Medicare and paying for family leave would risk creating a future fiscal mess. Sen. Jon Tester (D-Mont.) said he thought it was a mistake for the House not to pass the infrastructure bill but that Manchin also made a mistake. “Of course, but I think Joe made a mistake today by going out and making this news conference,” he said. Senate Budget Committee Chairman Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) didn’t directly name Manchin but pushed back at his remarks, arguing that the spending plan will be fully paid for. He also pointedly noted that the infrastructure bill backed by Manchin would add to the deficit, according to a Congressional Budget Office (CBO) analysis. Sen. Patrick Leahy (D-Vt.) said he was puzzled by Manchin’s claim that the bill is full of “shell games and budget gimmicks.” “That’s certainly not the impression I have,” he said. Manchin’s televised remarks Monday afternoon came at an awkward moment for Biden, who at the time was meeting with other global leaders at the COP26 climate summit in Glasgow, Scotland, where he wanted to tout progress in Congress on making historic new investments in fighting climate change. Manchin has repeatedly been an obstacle to Senate Democrats and an irritation to House progressives. He’s refused to agree to include paid family leave in the bill and also objected to other key party priorities such as expanding Medicare. The bill is only $1.75 trillion because Manchin and Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (D-Ariz.) objected to the $3.5 trillion price tag greenlighted under the budget resolution earlier this year. House progressives and the White House immediately downplayed the impact of Manchin’s comments, predicting that all 50 Democrats would be on board when it counts. “We remain confident that the plan will gain Sen. Manchin’s support,” said White House press secretary Jen Psaki, arguing that the bill under negotiation will meet Manchin’s red lines on both combating inflation and not adding to the debt.
‘Manchin Is a F**king Snake’: Progressives Urged to Keep Pushing for Both Bills - Supporters of passing the Build Back Better budget reconciliation package urged congressional progressives to maintain their position that it must move forward simultaneously with bipartisan infrastructure legislation after Sen. Joe Manchin accused his colleagues of holding the latter bill “hostage” and demanded an immediate vote. During a Monday press conference, Manchin (D-W.Va.) said that “the political games have to stop” and called for the Democrat-held U.S. House of Representatives to swiftly vote on the infrastructure bill—which several Senate Democrats advanced in August with the expectation that it would only reach President Joe Biden’s desk alongside the reconciliation package.“Holding this bill hostage is not going to work in getting my support for the reconciliation bill,” Manchin declared, while signaling that he still does not back the compromise framework unveiled by the president last week, after intense negotiations with him and Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (D-Ariz.), the other party member who’s pushed to weaken the legislation.Manchin fell back on his long-standing concerns about the national debt and inflation, and advocated for more time to analyze the impacts of the reconciliation package, saying that “I’m open to supporting a final bill that helps move our country forward, but I am equally open to voting against a bill that hurts our country.”In what The Hill described as a “veiled swipe” at Manchin, Senate Budget Committee Chair Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) on Monday addressed “anybody in the Democratic caucus or elsewhere that’s worried about fiscal responsibility and the deficit.”“The fact is… that according to the [Congressional Budget Office] the infrastructure bill runs up to a $250 billion deficit. It’s not paid for,” Sanders told reporters on Capitol Hill. “The legislation that I wanna see passed… is paid for in its entirety. It will not have an impact on inflation. So if we’re talking about fiscal responsibility I think what we’re trying to do with the reconciliation bill is the right thing.”Other progressive critics accused the West Virginia Democrat of personally tanking the infrastructure measure—known as the Bipartisan Infrastructure Framework (BIF)—and encouraged progressive Democrats in the House to keep fighting to pass both bills together.
Biden says no world leaders asked him if his spending bill will pass -- President Biden said Tuesday that no world leaders at the United Nations climate summit asked him if his Build Back Better agenda will pass Congress, and stressed instead the work his administration has made so fair on climate. Speaking during a press conference before leaving Glasgow, Scotland, the president said other members of the United Nations COP26 summit, the 26th annual conference held for global leaders to discuss approaches to climate change, didn't bring up the prospects of his economic and social spending agenda passing. “I didn’t have a single member of this conference come up to me and say, ‘are you going to pass what you have, what do you think?’ ‘How is that going to affect it?’ ‘What are you going to do?’” Biden said. “What they’re looking at is what in fact has happened with everything dealing with deforestation to what we’re going to do on Build Back Better and how we’ve been able to focus now,” he added. He vowed that Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) would back the final version of the bill as its fate in the legislature loomed over his time at the summit. Passage of the bill will be critical to the U.S. meeting many of the goals Biden has laid out to cut emissions and halt the effects of climate change as he has positioned the U.S. as a world leader on the issue during meetings with other world leaders. Manchin expressed reservations about voting for the package, citing concerns about inflation and adding to the national debt. The president’s framework includes many environmental policy provisions, including clean energy tax credits, an electric vehicle tax credit, a conservation jobs program called a Civilian Climate Corps, tax credits and rebates to help people electrify their homes. In Glasglow, Biden announced goals for reducing methane emissions and joined others in touting efforts to stop and reverse deforestation by the year 2030. He called the deforestation agreement “a great example of the kind of ambition we need and the United States is proud, proud to have initiated in supporting it.” “I can’t think of any two days where more has been accomplished dealing with climate,” Biden said. Activists, including Greta Thunberg, have held protests outside COP26 about the pace of action on climate change. When asked about the atmosphere around the conference, the president said he agreed with protesters who are skeptical about the ultimate impact of the event. “I think anyone who is focused on the environment should be worried. We’ve got a lot more to do beyond what we’ve done. We’ve done more than we’ve ever done though, that’s the point, and more has to be done,” Biden said.
Pelosi: Bill issues could be resolved by 'end of the day' - Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) said Tuesday after huddling with Democrats that the handful of outstanding issues holding up President Biden’s mammoth social and climate spending package “could be resolved by the end of the day.” “I'm not announcing a vote,” she told reporters as she left the meeting, “but I did say that this could be resolved by the end of the day.” The Speaker’s prediction was sunnier than that of many of her rank-and-file members, who for weeks have seen deadlines come and go on two key pillars of Biden’s domestic agenda: the Build Back Better package and the bipartisan infrastructure package. “I can sit here and I can bullshit you, but the real answer is there was no clarity,” one House Democrat grumbled as he left the caucus meeting. Pelosi and her leadership team have been trying to project optimism on the $1.75 trillion package, even as Biden and the party have struggled for weeks to strike a deal on the social spending plan to aid families, students, workers and the elderly. In the closed-door meeting, Pelosi informed members that she hopes the remaining unresolved issues will be ironed out Tuesday and that the Rules Committee will be able to mark up legislative text of Build Back Better as early as Wednesday. That would set up a floor vote on both the infrastructure and reconciliation packages by the end of the week. “Hopefully, [the negotiators] will finish tonight. I’m being optimistic,” said Rep. Debbie Dingell (D-Mich.), a member of Pelosi’s leadership team. But Dingell added: “I think we’ve got to act this week.” Most of the Build Back Better legislation is written, but moderates and progressives are racing to wrap up negotiations on several big issues. They hope a deal can be reached on language to allow Medicare to negotiate lower drug prices, but only for older drugs that are no longer under the "exclusivity period." Democratic negotiators are also trying to resolve some sticking points on the climate portion of the package, said Majority Leader Steny Hoyer (D-Md.), citing some reservations from centrist Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.). And House Democrats, pushed by the Congressional Hispanic Caucus, are writing legislative language for a number of immigration reform provisions totaling around $100 billion. They are trying to ensure the immigration provisions can pass muster with the Senate parliamentarian and comply with that chamber’s Byrd Rule. “We need to keep all the options on the table for immigration, so that when the parliamentarian rules, we will have those options on the table,” Progressive Caucus Chair Pramila Jayapal (D-Wash.) told reporters.
Manchin blames Senate rules for paid leave's absence -- Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) pushed back on Tuesday against including paid leave in President Biden's spending package, arguing that the proposal would run afoul of Senate rules on what can be in the bill. "I'm working on paid leave. I support paid leave but not in this bill in the way it's presented because they had to — they really had to adjust the paid leave to fit in to reconciliation," Manchin said. "In this bill you can't get it done because of the constraints we have," Manchin added. Democrats are using an arcane budget process known as reconciliation to pass the social and climate spending bill by a simple majority instead of needing to get the 60 votes required for most legislation in the Senate. But that also places strict restrictions on what can be in the bill, which also has to comply with the Byrd rule that tries to prevent "extraneous matter" from being included in the spending bill. Democrats initially wanted to include 12 weeks of paid leave in their spending bill, before narrowing it down to four and then dropping the policy from the framework for the scaled-down $1.75 trillion spending bill that the White House released last week. Democrats are continuing to try to get Manchin to support including a paid leave proposal in the spending bill and pushed back against the idea that the Senate referee had placed limits on including paid leave in the bill. "He is not the parliamentarian," Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D-N.Y.) told reporters, referring to Manchin. A senior Democratic aide added that "the parliamentarian has not limited Democrats' ability to do paid leave through reconciliation." Gillibrand indicated that she was now looking at a structure for the reconciliation bill that would be similar to a paid leave proposal she previously proposed that was funded through a payroll tax, which was split by employers and employees. "I'm still working with Sen. Manchin. He would really, really love a structure that is more akin to Social Security, something where there's an employer-employee match, something that is self-sustaining. ... He prefers that structure," Gillibrand said. Gillibrand added that she didn't think supporters of including paid leave in reconciliation had hit a parliamentarian roadblock "yet" but that if she can get Manchin's buy-in for a plan that they would run anything by the Senate referee.
Democrats hit panic button after Virginia collapse -A dismal performance by Democratic candidates in New Jersey and Virginia is sparking a sense of panic among Democrats who now view their Senate and House majorities as in serious peril in the 2022 midterm elections. In Virginia, a state President Biden won by 10 points a year ago, Democrats saw former Gov. Terry McAuliffe fall to defeat in a state the polls suggested he had been leading months ago. In New Jersey, a strong performance by little-known former GOP Assemblyman Jack Ciattarelli against Gov. Phil Murphy (D) was too close to call. Democrats had expected Murphy to win easily. Republicans immediately went on the offensive, announcing a new bid to go after swing-seat Democrats in the House. Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) said his party might be able to flip as many as 60 seats. The GOP needs to flip a net of only five seats to take back the House majority. If they can gain one Senate seat, they’d take control of that chamber. Both goals looked to be in reach after Tuesday. Sabato’s Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics moved Senate races in Arizona, Georgia and Nevada from the “lean Democratic” column to “toss-ups.” Dave Wasserman, an analyst with the nonpartisan Cook Political Report, tweeted that Tuesday’s results “are consistent [with] a political environment in which Republicans would comfortably take back both the House and Senate in 2022.” Democrats had felt more confident about keeping control of the Senate in 2022 because of a favorable electoral map. Twenty Republican-held seats are in play, including in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, which were both won by President Biden in 2020. But Biden’s approval numbers have tanked amid a gridlocked Congress, and his dismal ratings were another anchor on McAuliffe in Virginia. It was also impossible not to interpret the tight race in New Jersey as reflective of broader problems.
Left gives in, holds nose at 'grotesque' climate compromise -Progressives are preparing to swallow their pride and vote for the bipartisan infrastructure bill, despite continued uncertainty about whether West Virginia Democratic Sen. Joe Manchin will ultimately support the complementary climate and social spending package. It’s a sudden reversal for the 96-member bloc of hardliners who have been insisting for weeks that they wouldn’t support the scaled-back, $1 trillion infrastructure measure without assurances that Manchin — and Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (D-Ariz.) — would endorse the larger reconciliation bill. That separate proposal, now coming in at $1.75 trillion, represents the greater policy wishlist for liberals and the bulk of the promises President Biden made during the 2020 campaign. At a press conference yesterday, Manchin again raised public concerns about the bill, including insisting on a Congressional Budget Office cost estimate before he could commit one way or the other (E&E News PM, Nov. 1). But progressives acknowledged that there had been a turning point in discussions over the past month and perhaps an understanding that the political standoff had run its course. What has shifted, said Congressional Progressive Caucus Chair Pramila Jayapal (D-Wash.), is that Democrats have bill text in front of them — the result, she said, of weeks of direct negotiations with Manchin and Sinema. “I’ve spoken directly with Sen. Sinema, and I believe the White House has been working with Sen. Manchin,” Jayapal said. “And so now I feel like, ‘OK, we’ve got the bill text, we’re going to vote on the bills.’” The House could now vote on the pair of bills this week, with House Rules Chair Jim McGovern (D-Mass.) telling reporters last night he would likely convene his panel tomorrow to set the parameters for floor debate on the reconciliation package.Not all progressive Democrats signaled they’d be on board yesterday. Rep. Cori Bush (D-Mo.) was appalled yesterday by Manchin’s latest refusal to support the current reconciliation agreement, saying his “opposition … is anti-Black, anti-child, anti-woman and anti-immigrant.” House Democrats can only afford to lose three votes given their slim majority hold on the chamber.
Manchin says he won't vote to overrule Senate parliamentarian - Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) said on Wednesday that he won't vote to overrule the Senate parliamentarian during the upcoming debate on Democrats' social and climate spending bill. "People might be all excited about something now. ... It might not even fit in the bill because on our side it doesn't fit, it doesn't come within the rules of reconciliation," Manchin told Fox News's Bret Baier. "I'm not going to vote to overrule the parliamentarian," Manchin added. "I'm not going to do that; they all know that." Because Democrats are trying to bypass Senate Republicans on President Biden's spending plan, they have to comply with the rules governing reconciliation, an arcane budget process that lets them avoid the filibuster. The Senate parliamentarian provides guidance to senators about if policies meet the Byrd rule, named after the late Sen. Robert Byrd (D-W.Va.), that restricts what can be included in a reconciliation bill. If it doesn't comply with the rule, it will be stripped out of the bill — or Democrats could try to overrule the parliamentarian. But that would take total unity from the 50-member Senate Democratic caucus, meaning they would need Manchin's support. In addition to Manchin's opposition, members of Senate Democratic leadership have previously signaled that they don't believe they have the votes for such a move. But the parliamentarian has frustrated activists this year, first by ruling against including a $15 per hour minimum wage in a coronavirus relief bill. Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) tried to put it back in the bill as an amendment, which required 60 votes because it didn't meet the budget rules, but lost several Democratic senators in addition to Republicans.
House Democrats aim for Thursday vote on social spending package - House Democrats are aiming to vote on their social spending package later Thursday, with a Friday vote on the Senate-passed bipartisan infrastructure bill, as they race to break an impasse on President Biden’s stalled domestic agenda. It’s not yet clear if Democratic leaders will be able to round up the votes in their caucus, since some centrists want more time to review the legislative text and wait for a cost analysis from the Congressional Budget Office. "Hopefully we’ll see if we have votes for [Build Back Better] tonight and [the bipartisan infrastructure bill] tomorrow morning,” Pelosi said during a closed-door meeting with her vote-counting operations, according to a source familiar with her remarks. The votes would come after Democrats lost the race for governor in Virginia, where the party previously hadn’t come up short in a statewide race since 2009. Democratic New Jersey Gov. Phil Murphy also only narrowly hung onto his seat in a race that wasn’t expected to be as competitive. Democratic leaders are hoping that an analysis from the Joint Committee on Taxation showing that the revenue provisions in the social spending package would raise nearly $1.5 trillion over 10 years will satisfy at least five centrists demanding detailed analyses before they cast any votes. Democrats take on Manchin, make renewed push for family leave Pelosi presses ahead on vote without Manchin buy-in Democrats cautioned that the plans to vote on both bills this week are still tentative. “Nothing’s firm right now,” said Rep. Suzan DelBene (D-Wash.), the leader of the New Democrat Coalition. “[Pelosi] just said she’s still going to try to get both of them this week.”
Yes, the Build Back Better Act is fully paid for -- EPI director of research Josh Bivens took to Twitter to refute critics’ most recent claim that the Build Back Better Act (BBBA) is only “fully paid for” due to accounting gimmicks. The claim, Bivens stresses, is “bad economics,” adding that BBBA is indeed fully paid for. Read the full Twitter thread explaining why below. Children whose parents couldn’t find decent work? Underserving of a modest unconditional tax credit. Millionaire heirs? Deserving of maintenance of a zero tax rate on inherited capital gains. 2The essence of the new complaint is that the revenue increases in the BBBA are permanent, but a number of the spending provisions and tax credits sunset before the end of the 10-year budget window. Hence, the bill is not really “paid-for” and will increase budget deficits. 4The BBBA negotiations landed in a spot where it is funded with revenue instead of debt – and that’s great! The tax provisions are genuinely valuable in and of themselves, and, they will not neutralize any of the macroeconomic benefits of the spending. 6 The inevitable comparisons credulous commenters will make are to the tax cuts passed under George W Bush and Donald Trump. All of these tax cuts contained at least some provisions which sunsetted over the 10-year budget window, aiming to make their deficit impact look smaller. 8 It seems odd to need to say more about this, but the BBBA critics make a further claim that sunsetted provisions in fiscal bills never really get sunsetted. Future Congresses, in this claim, will be unwilling to reduce BBBA spending. Hence, shell game. 10 On the logic – if future Congresses think the spending provisions of the BBBA are so popular with the public that they can’t be sunsetted, won’t they also think these provisions are popular enough to ask the public to support them with some revenue increases? 12On the empirical claim that provisions are never sunsetted – a non-trivial portion of the Bush tax cuts were indeed allowed to sunset – roughly 20%. Importantly, these were a much larger share of the cuts these delivered to high-income households. 14 And yes, I would’ve rolled back more – but the simple fact is that tax cuts on the rich went up non-trivially under the Obama administration. It was a fight, but, provisions not-loved by the majority can be rolled back or allowed to sunset. 16 The real fear here is obviously not about the size of deficits. If it was, today’s critics would simply support any number of sensible and progressive measures to raise more revenue.18 The fear instead seems to be that the BBBA might really deliver enough to alert U.S. families about what is possible for a decent government to do, and remind them that ours has done so little for them for so long. 19 — Josh Bivens (@joshbivens_DC) November 2, 2021
Democrats take on Manchin, make renewed push for family leave - House Democrats on Wednesday resurrected a long-sought paid family leave proposal as part of their social spending package in defiance of Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.). Manchin, whose vote is essential for passage of the bill in the evenly divided Senate, doubled down on his opposition and insisted the social spending package is the “wrong place” for the paid leave proposal. But the push from House Democrats to revive paid leave is a signal that they are willing to put up a bigger fight over it, even while they’re desperately trying to nail down a deal as fast as possible. That fight comes as Democrats are reeling from disappointing election results in Virginia and New Jersey, which has left some saying the party badly needs to deliver on campaign promises such as paid family leave. House Democrats insisted after huddling in the Capitol basement Wednesday afternoon that they were still aiming to vote later this week on both the social spending package and the Senate-passed bipartisan infrastructure bill. “The reality is we need to pass both bills and that's what we're doing. Because this is what ultimately says to people we understand you're in pain. I think last night's elections were about people being in pain,” said Rep. Pramila Jayapal (D-Wash.), the Congressional Progressive Caucus leader. House Democrats are hoping to ramp up pressure on Manchin to reverse his position. “Look, I think the hope is that somebody will change Sen. Manchin's mind and we'll be able to include it. And because it's such a big priority for our entire caucus and for millions of families across the country and certainly millions of women, I think the Speaker made a principled decision to just go ahead and include it and see if we can continue to do the work to get it done,” Jayapal said. Manchin said Wednesday that he would rather enact paid family leave on a bipartisan basis, instead of in the reconciliation package. “I want to support paid leave. I want to do it in a bipartisan way. I've talked to [GOP Sen.] Susan Collins. I've talked to colleagues on both sides. We both agree something can be done,” Manchin said. “Let's do that in a proper [way]. We’re trying to force it through reconciliation, which has guardrails and rules and regulations. Let's do it and do it right,” he said.
Pelosi presses ahead on vote without Manchin buy-in - House Democrats said Wednesday they were switching tactics and plowing ahead with a vote on President Biden’s sweeping social spending and climate package later this week, without getting a commitment from key Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) that he will support the legislation. For weeks, Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) and her leadership team had worked to strike a deal with Manchin and fellow centrist Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (D-Ariz.) on the front end before bringing Biden’s Build Back Better plan to the floor, a strategy Democrats believed would smooth the bill’s path to the president’s desk. But Manchin has refused to sign off on the package, saying Wednesday that the GOP’s electoral victories in Virginia on Tuesday should cause Democrats to pump the brakes of Biden’s $1.75 trillion spending plan. Frustrated House leaders instead pressed their foot on the gas pedal, pledging to bring both the Senate-passed infrastructure package and social safety net bill to the floor. The House Rules Committee, which is controlled by Pelosi, was meeting Wednesday evening on a still-evolving 2,135-page Build Back Better bill that was revised to include new immigration, tax, prescription drug pricing and other provisions. Pelosi announced earlier in the day that House Democrats were putting four weeks of permanent paid family and medical leave back in the package, much to the chagrin of Manchin. “We’re gonna get ‘em done,” House Foreign Affairs Committee Chairman Gregory Meeks (D-N.Y.), a Pelosi ally, said of the pair of bills after leaving a 90-minute closed-door Democratic caucus meeting. “I think we’re together. I think there’s been a lot of progress. We’re gonna get it done.” A Pelosi spokesman also confirmed that votes will be held this week and that the Speaker plans to bring Build Back Better to the floor first. But she has vowed to hold votes on Biden’s agenda in the past, only to run into opposition from her own party that forced her to delay the votes. A handful of moderates, led by Rep. Stephanie Murphy (D-Fla.), are demanding a score from the Congressional Budget Office on the social spending bill before they agree to vote for it. “Her well of confidence remains undiscovered by all of us who seek it,” said one moderate Democrat. “There is risk because it’s got to pass the floor here, and then once it gets to the Senate, it’s got to survive over there,” said a second House Democrat. “It shows how much everybody wants to see movement.” On The Money — Presented by Citi — Pelosi plays hardball with Manchin Manchin doubles down as House puts paid leave in spending bill Pelosi’s change in strategy underscores the desire by House Democrats to show some kind of progress on Biden’s economic agenda after months of messy, intraparty infighting over policy and political tactics. Both the House and Senate are slated to be on recess next week for Veterans Day, and rank-and-file Democrats are desperate to have a successful vote that they can talk about with constituents and voters back home — especially after their big loss in Virginia. But it’s unclear how things would play out in the Senate if the House manages to pass Build Back Better. House Democrats said such a move would put pressure on Manchin to reject the package and bring the two sides closer to a deal that’s been elusive for months. A vote is “an indication of what the House is willing to support; obviously there is another part of the process in the Senate,” Rep. Joaquin Castro (D-Texas) told The Hill after the caucus meeting. “You know, at some point you have to take action.”
Manchin says Democrats 'can't go too far left' -- Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) in a Thursday morning appearance on CNN’s "New Day" defended his arguments over the social spending and climate package stuck in Congress, arguing that Democrats and President Biden will be hurt if the party moves too far to the left. “I believe in President Biden. I still do and I will always, because he's a good person; he's here for the right reason. He really is in government for the right reason. We just have to work together. We can't go too far left,” Manchin said. “This is not a center-left or a left country. We are a center — if anything, a little center-right country, and this means that's being shown. And we ought to be able to recognize that,” he added. Manchin was responding to a question about remarks from Rep. Abigail Spanberger (D-Va.), who said that Biden was elected to “be normal and stop the chaos” and not to be another FDR — a reference to President Roosevelt and the New Deal policies of the 1930s. The senator said he believes Biden is a moderate, adding that members of the Democratic Party are “pushing him left” but “that’s not Joe Biden.” Manchin labeled himself a “responsible West Virginia Democrat,” adding that he is “fiscally responsible and socially compassionate.” He urged members of his party to “come together” and “realize what can and can’t be done,” before urging them not to “force, basically, something that’s not going to happen to make people believe it will.” Manchin’s comments come as pressure is mounting on Congress to pass the bipartisan infrastructure bill and social spending package after Democrats experienced a trio of losses in Virginia on Tuesday, falling short in the governor, lieutenant governor and attorney general races. Some have attributed the Republican victories in the Old Dominion to the internal disagreements within the Democratic Party, which have delayed negotiations for the two packages for weeks. The West Virginia Democrat has played a key role in those negotiations, along with his moderate colleague Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (D-Ariz.). Manchin has expressed concerns about the $1.75 trillion social spending package, urging his colleagues in the House to hold off on those deliberations to first pass the Senate-approved bipartisan infrastructure package. Progressives, however, are demanding that the two bills are passed alongside one another, and are threatening to tank the infrastructure package if it is brought up alone. Manchin defended his concerns with the social spending package Thursday morning, doubling down on his opposition to including paid family leave and Medicare expansion in the bill. Democratic leadership had hoped to hold votes on the bipartisan infrastructure bill and the framework for the spending package as early as this week, though with negotiations still ongoing, that timeline looks unlikely.M
Red New Deal? GOP offers a climate plan of its own - Senate Republicans want to fight climate change by burning more fossil fuels. As world leaders gather in Glasgow, Scotland, to offer plans to hit net-zero greenhouse emissions at United Nations climate talks, several GOP senators gathered yesterday to announce their own broad vision for energy policy focused on boosting natural gas production and exports to achieve marginal global carbon reductions from fuel switching and lowered life cycle emissions. “We have an opportunity with our allies and with our technologies, I think, to set a different goal than simply let’s get America to zero, let’s unilaterally disarm the American economy by just getting to zero and then let China do what they do,” Sen. Kevin Cramer (R-N.D.) told reporters. The plan, led by Cramer and Sens. Dan Sullivan (R-Alaska) and Cynthia Lummis (R-Wyo.), would aim to reduce global emissions 40 percent by 2050 compared to current levels. It would involve expanding natural gas, nuclear power and carbon capture, building out critical minerals supply chains and reforming the National Environmental Policy Act — all ideas Republicans have supported for years. Still, the announcement was notable. It’s the first time Republicans have articulated a specific greenhouse gas reduction target for 2050, and it offered the GOP another opportunity to blast high gas prices, climate envoy John Kerry’s private jet and the Green New Deal. But it’s not a goal that would avoid the worst impacts of climate change. A net-zero pathway, which scientists say is crucial to hold temperature rises under 2 degrees Celsius and avoid devastating environmental and economic impacts, would necessitate energy and industrial carbon emissions falling 40 percent by 2030, according to the International Energy Agency. It would also require a 75 percent reduction in emissions of methane — a byproduct of natural gas. Republicans, however, stressed that they’re not setting a global temperature target. They instead set themselves in opposition to President Biden’s goal of reducing U.S. emissions 50 to 52 percent under 2005 levels by 2030. “The United States is leading the world in terms of the reduction of global greenhouse gas emissions, but what we don’t want to do, like the Green New Deal, is a top-down approach,” Sullivan said. It’s not the first time the GOP has tried to put together ideas about climate change. The party has been trying to move away from outright denial for years now, despite former President Trump’s repeated claims that climate change is a “hoax.” Instead, many are emphasizing energy innovation and the role of natural gas in reducing emissions. In short, Republicans say that policy should focus on reducing greenhouse gas emissions, not on the fossil fuels that produce them.
The Left’s Climate Humiliation – WSJ --President Biden promised progressives that his budget bill would finally deliver them their long-sought climate stick. What they’re getting instead is the same old carrot: corporate welfare.Mr. Biden’s newest framework promises $555 billion to combat climate change. A White House fact sheet boasts this is the “largest single investment” in U.S. history, and the Beltway press is dutifully propagating that message. Outlets assured that this “massive” new spending on green-energy subsidies would give the president credibility as he arrives at next week’s climate summit in Glasgow. In fact, the climate deal is a humiliating loss for both the president and congressional progressives—as further-left media organizations acknowledged over the past week. “The Centerpiece of Biden’s Climate Agenda Is All But Dead,” Mother Jones railed. “Progressive lawmakers seem resigned to losing their clean energy program,” Jacobin complained. “Biden’s Incredible Shrinking Climate Plan,” the New Republic groused. Several activists from the Sunrise Movement, an originator of the Green New Deal, are staging a hunger strike outside the White House. Climate warriors have insisted for decades that the subsidies the U.S. uses to coax companies toward green energy, and consumers toward energy-efficient products, aren’t enough. The only way to reduce U.S. carbon emissions sufficiently, they say, is via a federal enforcement mechanism—a program that imposes mandates or pricing policies that require carbon cuts.The Biden presidency was supposed to be the climate crowd’s opportunity. The original climate portion of the reconciliation package was built around the Clean Electricity Performance Program, which would require utilities to buy or generate a certain additional amount of renewable energy every year. Companies would get federal payments if they hit the mark and face steep fines if they didn’t. Natural gas wouldn’t count as “clean.” Democratic leaders explained again and again this enforcement mechanism was necessary, the primary way Mr. Biden would achieve his promise of reducing U.S. carbon emissions 50% by 2030.Some Democrats—including Sen. Joe Manchin of West Virginia and several Texas representatives—said no to CEPP, and they meant it. Activists tried cajoling them with promises to make the program friendlier to coal-and gas-producing states, but they failed. Progressives then suggested a carbon tax. No dice. They turned to other enforcement replacements, including a border-adjustment tax (a fee on carbon-intensive imports), a methane fee, and a tax on industrial pollution. The White House briefing sheet on this week’s framework made no mention of these changes. What it does include is a boatload of pork for corporate America. In an effort to claim climate victory, the White House ramped up its top-line number for climate tax credits and subsidies. The bill is now an even bigger pig trough for any business, big or small, that claims even tenuous involvement in producing solar or wind power or electric vehicles. The White House brags that money will even go to companies that aren’t in the renewable sector, via “grants, loans, tax credits and procurement” for “existing industries like steel, cement and aluminum” to help them with “decarbonization.” Progressives want to tax billionaires like Elon Musk. This bill would make them richer.
Former Manchin aides lobbied Congress for oil, gas, pharma while he fought to shrink Biden bills -- Sen. Joe Manchin has been working to shrink or eliminate key elements of President Joe Biden and the Democratic Party's massive social spending and climate proposal as several of his former advisors lobby Congress for their corporate clients. Manchin, the moderate West Virginia Democrat, has at least six former aides and advisors lobbying members of Congress, including senators, for power players in industries such as coal, pharmaceuticals, oil and gas, tobacco, and finance, according to more than two dozen filings to Congress. The lobbying disclosure reports reviewed by CNBC span the third quarter, which started in July and concluded at the end of September. Manchin, who is also the chair of the Senate Energy Committee, has been fighting pieces of the now-$1.75 trillion social spending and climate plan that Biden supports. If passed by Congress, many pieces of that plan could significantly impact the companies that his former aides are lobbying for. Democrats on Tuesday overcame one of their biggest hurdles, as they reached a breakthrough agreement on lowering prescription drug prices. The lobbying disclosure reports do not say whether Manchin or his office have been directly targeted by his former advisors. Yet one of lobbyists, Jonathan Kott, has said publicly that he has privately called the West Virginia senator. Manchin has said that Larry Puccio, another former advisor currently lobbying the Senate, is a "dear friend." At least two lobbyists who used to work for Manchin are barred from engaging directly with him or his office, as Senate rules say former staffers must wait a year after leaving a congressional office before lobbying their former colleagues. As long as they didn't hit a certain salary threshold while working in Congress, they are allowed to lobby other members of the Senate. Neither Manchin's office nor any of the lobbyists mentioned in this story returned requests for comment before publication.
House Democrats add paid-leave, immigration, tax changes to Biden bill — House Democrats added paid family and medical leave, immigration law changes and a state-and-local tax break to their $1.75 trillion social services and environmental bill Wednesday, reviving some key elements of President Joe Biden’s agenda as they rush to finish the package after dismal overnight election results. The House Rules Committee convened Wednesday afternoon to consider the updated text of the now-sprawling 2,135-page package — a crucial step ahead of initial House votes that are possible as soon as Thursday. The flurry of last-minute additions — on top of a plan to include lower Medicare prescription drug prices — comes as Democrats are desperate to deliver on Mr. Biden’s signature domestic proposals after grim election results overnight in Virginia, where voters chose a Republican political newcomer, Glenn Youngkin, over seasoned Democrat Terry McAuliffe for governor. That amounted to a warning for Democrats that their grip on power could be in peril in next year’s midterms. Most voters in Virginia said drawn-out negotiations in Washington over Mr. Biden’s governing agenda were an important factor in their vote, so blame was flowing to Capitol Hill as Democrats have spent months arguing over details of the package.“We’ve got to produce,” Democratic Sen. Tim Kaine, of Virginia, told reporters at the Capitol. “We’ve got to get results for people.” Democrats are now rushing to shelve their differences, particularly with holdout Sens. Joe Manchin, of West Virginia, and Kyrsten Sinema, of Arizona. The family leave provision Mr. Manchin had resisted earlier is expected to include four weeks of paid time off for childbirth, recovery from major illness or caring for family members, according to three people familiar with the legislation who requested anonymity to discuss it. Mr. Biden had reluctantly dropped a scaled-back paid leave proposal from last week’s White House framework after Mr. Manchin balked at the cost. But Democrats who have lobbied for a paid leave program as a Democratic priority for decades continued to push it, and House Speaker Nancy Pelosi announced Wednesday it would be part of the House’s massive package.
Immigration holdouts stage last-ditch effort to get green cards in reconciliation - Three members of the Congressional Hispanic Caucus (CHC) are lobbying moderate Democrats in the last hours before the first vote on the social spending package, looking to include a more ambitious immigration plan than is currently in the bill's text. Democratic Reps. Jesús García (Ill.), Lou Correa (Calif.) and Adriano Espaillat (N.Y.), dubbed "the three amigos" for their efforts to include immigration provisions in the bill, are approaching so-called “frontline Democrats” to get their blessing on expanded immigration provisions. House Democrats on Wednesday released the language of the bill, that includes a parole option for immigration, which would allow two five-year waivers for undocumented immigrants in the country since before 2011, allowing them to live and work in the United States. But immigration activists have decried the parole option because it does not provide permanent residency — and with it a legal path to citizenship — as a treacherous non-permanent status that could potentially be subject to revocation by executive fiat or court action. Advocates want Congress to include a change in registry date — essentially a statute of limitations for undocumented immigrants — that would allow any immigrants in the country before a certain date to apply for permanent residency. The three amigos, all of whom conditioned their vote on the Build Back Better (BBB) bill to include immigration provisions, have not agreed to vote for the bill as it is currently written. "If registry were in the bill I would vote for the BBB and the [infrastructure bill] together, of course," said García. "If not, then I've taken the position that I've taken. I've got to wait to see if there's anything left in [the bill] that is an acceptable reform." The last minute lobbying push comes after the three amigos led a push within the CHC to formalize the group's support of the registry option, and after a long meeting with Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) Wednesday, where she laid out the slim margins for expanding language on immigration. "She was very frank. She knows her caucus and she's not in an easy place, but she said we have our work cut out for us to persuade our colleagues to vote for the registry proposal," said García. "Obviously that's worth a shot," he added. The bill is due to be marked up by the Rules Committee as early as Thursday afternoon, and could be voted on by the House later Thursday or on Friday. Once that process is rolling, Democratic leadership is unlikely to approve any major changes, risking passage of a bill it has already twice delayed. A large part of reluctance from some progressive and moderate Democrats to vote for the registry proposal is the fact that the Senate parliamentarian has already ruled that idea incompatible with reconciliation procedures. Democrats are pushing the BBB plan with zero Republican support, and they need to use reconciliation to avoid a GOP filibuster. To successfully do so, Democrats need the unanimous support of their Senate caucus, and moderates in that chamber have said they will not support overruling the parliamentarian, an unelected official who gives advisory opinions on Senate rules. Still, the CHC's four Senate members asked the three amigos to push forward on including the change of registry date in the final House reconciliation bill. "They feel that once it's in the Senate they can engage in the negotiations necessary to be successful. When you engage in a negotiation, you don't begin with the bottom line, you begin with as robust a position as possible," said García.
The uphill battle facing the reconciliation bill - Biden revealed the details of his Build Back Better plan, but not all Democratic policymakers are sure to support it. Democrats’ budget reconciliation bill was supposed to be an ambitious piece of progressive legislation that would be President Joe Biden’s signature legislative achievement. Democrats hoped to push the bill through while holding narrow 50-50 control of the Senate and a slim majority in the House. But as the bill continues its arduous journey forward, fewer of Democrats’ policy priorities are making the cut.When President Biden unveiled the latest iteration of his Build Back Better agenda, coming in at $1.75 trillion, he touted funding for universal child care, $555 billion to address theclimate crisis, and a surtax for the country’s wealthiest.It could be transformative for large parts of American society. But some progressives are disappointed because the framework is drastically scaled down from the original $3.5 trillion spending bill, leaving out earlier promises for paid family leave, free community college, and expanded Medicare coverage.Democrats’ hope is that that these updates will be an agreeable middle ground to get all 50 senators on board, including moderate Sens. Joe Manchin (D-WV) and Kyrsten Sinema (D-AZ), who have been holdouts on the bill so far.But it’s also possible this framework ends up just “another attempt by Biden to put a stake in the ground while key divisions remain unresolved,” writes Vox staff. And while senators deliberate on the final version of the plan, the timeline of when the House will vote on it, along with the bipartisan infrastructure bill, is its own issue.
Dem Leaders Aim For House Votes Amid Final Budget Disputes - — With nearly no votes to spare, Democratic leaders tried resolving lingering concerns of moderate lawmakers Friday in hopes of finally pushing President Joe Biden’s multitrillion-dollar domestic agendad through the House. Speaker Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., and other leaders met privately with a handful of centrists who say they want an official cost estimate from the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office before voting on a 10-year, $1.85 trillion social and environment bill. Democrats can lose no more than three votes in the narrowly divided House to pass the legislation. Biden, meeting reporters to tout a strong monthly jobs report, said he was returning to the Oval Office “to make some calls” to lawmakers. He said he would ask them to “vote yes on both these bills right now.” Leaders want to pass that legislation, and a separate five-year, $1 trillion package of road and other infrastructure projects, to quickly notch accomplishments just days after a gubernatorial election defeat in Virginia and disappointing contests elsewhere. They also want the votes to occur before Congress leaves by the weekend for a week-long recess. Leaders have said complete CBO figures won’t be available for days or more. “We’re working on it,” House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer, D-Md., said of the talks. By late morning, a House procedural vote was underway that started over three hours earlier as behind-the-scenes discussions continued. House passage of Biden’s larger measure would send it to the Senate, where it would face certain changes and more Democratic drama. That’s chiefly because of demands by Sens. Joe Manchin of West Virginia and Kyrsten Sinema of Arizona to contain the measure’s costs and curb or drop some of its initiatives. But House approval of the smaller, bipartisan infrastructure measure would send it directly to the White House, where Biden would be certain to take a victory lap. That bill, projected to create mountains of jobs, had been blocked by House progressives to pressure moderates to back the larger family and climate change legislation. Pelosi met late Thursday with Hispanic lawmakers wanting the larger measure to go as far as possible in helping immigrants remain in the U.S. Their prospects for bold action are limited by strict Senate rules, though. Rep. Adriano Espaillat, D-N.Y., said Friday that they’d discussed moving on the issue in other bills and considered Pelosi an ally. After months of negotiations, House passage of the big bill would be a crucial step, sending to the Senate Biden’s effort to expand health care, child care and other social services and deliver a huge investment to fight climate change. Alongside the slimmer roads-bridges-and-broadband package, it adds up to Biden’s answer to his campaign promise to rebuild the country from the COVID-19 crisis and confront a changing economy.
Democrats update reconciliation bill as they prepare to vote - House Democrats offered an updated version of their massive social spending bill yesterday — one that stripped out new royalties for hardrock mining but dared moderates like Sen. Joe Manchin to oppose fees on methane and more than $500 billion in other climate policies. It marked another significant step forward for a negotiating process that has dragged on for three months, potentially putting the House on track to vote on the package by the end of this week — perhaps as early as today. The updated bill crystallizes some policies, with many of the climate proposals remaining intact from Democrats’ initial draft. But it leaves others subject to change in the Senate, and at the whim of two moderate Democrats there: West Virginia’s Manchin and Arizona’s Kyrsten Sinema. “Even for those of us who had a high aspirational tone on this, we were able to get more than I thought we were going to get,” said House Ways and Means Chair Richard Neal (D-Mass.) of the bill’s tax provisions. “What we did for renewables is, of itself, a major achievement.” Democrats floated the first version of the $1.7 trillion compromise reconciliation package late last week, an effort to show progress amid continued objections from Manchin and Sinema (E&E Daily, Oct. 29). But they haggled for another week, dealing with drug pricing and paid leave policies, as well as concerns about the methane fee. The new draft, which Democrats considered in the House Rules Committee last night, keeps major climate policies mostly the same, including the methane fee, a new national green bank and a huge suite of clean energy tax incentives that could significantly reduce power-sector reduction. A new set of royalties on hardrock mining, however, was nixed after objections from Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto (D-Nev.) (E&E Daily, Nov. 3). A suite of environmental justice grants to be administered by EPA, meanwhile, were set in the amended text to sunset after five years. Rep. Donald McEachin (D-Va.), who has worked closely on environmental justice issues on Capitol Hill, said this wasn’t a deal-breaker for him. “I haven’t seen that provision yet, but I can tell you that I suspect that once you get a program like that going, it’s going to be very hard to stop it,” he told E&E News. “I would expect it to be renewed.” McEachin also shared a sentiment that’s being echoed by many Democrats, including House Energy and Commerce Chair Frank Pallone (D-N.J.), who said that while the final bill will inevitably make some trade-offs, it “accomplishes what we set out to do — meet the Paris [climate] agreement.” Elsewhere, Democrats may still have some negotiating to do, including over a proposal to reduce methane emissions. The revised reconciliation text House Democrats rolled out yesterday included the same compromise methane proposal as last week. It would provide $775 million in loans, grants and other subsidies to help energy producers cut methane emissions and impose steep fines for excess emissions, reaching $1,500 per ton beginning in 2025. Rep. Henry Cuellar (D-Texas), a moderate in a district filled with energy producers who helped negotiate the compromise, said language still needs to be tweaked to ensure protections for small and independent energy producers. “What they did on the subsidies was good, but I am trying to still get them to understand what do we do about the small and independent companies,” said Cuellar, noting those firms are worried about the fines that larger companies have told him they could handle in exchange for subsidies. He said options could include a “longer runway” of a year or two for small and independent producers to meet methane emissions targets, or perhaps raising their limits for allowed methane reductions. Rep. Jared Huffman (D-Calif.), a senior Natural Resources Committee member who earlier called the $775 million in methane supports “grotesque,” was aghast that smaller energy companies were seeking additional carve-outs. “That’s ridiculous,” said Huffman. “How much more coddling? It’s getting to the point of absurdity. They should take yes for an answer. Some of us will have to hold our nose to even support this, but we will.”
House poised to vote today on climate, infrastructure bills - House Democratic leaders hope to nail down support for a $1.7 trillion climate and social services package today amid lingering worries over a proposed methane regulatory scheme and moderate worries about its cost. Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) spent much of yesterday trying to secure the votes for passage. The measure moved though the Rules Committee last night, and Democrats have put the bill on the floor for an expected vote today. Lawmakers are eager to act ahead of a congressional delegation heading to the U.N. climate change summit in Scotland over the weekend. “Our members are engaged in very thoughtful deliberation with each other. And as I said to you before, 90 percent of this bill has been agreed to: House, Senate, White House. And written, we made some changes since last week. People need to familiarize themselves with it,“ Pelosi told reporters yesterday. She conceded that she had been “really upset” that the bill did not pass last week, even after President Biden came to Capitol Hill to press the case. But it was clear from her buttonholing of members on the floor yesterday during an extended vote series that she is hoping to move the legislation quickly. While most Democrats support the budget reconciliation legislation and a companion $1.9 trillion infrastructure bill, Pelosi is operating with a thin majority and cannot afford to lose more than three votes. She famously does not allow legislation to be voted on without knowing in advance that she has the votes to pass it. The tight margin in the House has allowed fossil fuel-state lawmakers to raise concerns over methane. Meanwhile, moderates have demanded a detailed cost estimate, and Hispanic members are making a late push to include immigration provisions.
Congress passes $1.2 trillion bipartisan infrastructure bill, delivering major win for Biden - Congress has passed a $1.2 trillion bipartisan infrastructure bill, delivering on a major pillar of President Joe Biden's domestic agenda after months of internal deliberations and painstaking divisions among Democrats.The final vote was 228-206. Thirteen Republicans voted with the majority of Democrats in support of the bill, though six Democrats voted against it.The bill now heads to the President's desk to be signed into law, following hours of delays and internal debating among Democrats on Friday, including calls from Biden to persuade skeptical progressive members of the Democratic caucus.The legislation passed the Senate in August, but was stalled in the House as Democrats tried to negotiate a deal on a separate $1.9 trillion economic package, another key component of Biden's agenda that many Democrats had tied to the fate of the infrastructure bill.The legislation that passed Friday night will deliver $550 billion of new federal investments in America's infrastructure over five years, including money for roads, bridges, mass transit, rail, airports, ports and waterways. The package includes a $65 billion investment in improving the nation's broadband infrastructure, and invests tens of billions of dollars in improving the electric grid and water systems. Another $7.5 billion would go to building a nationwide network of plug-in electric vehicle chargers, according to the bill text. Biden called House Speaker Nancy Pelosi just before midnight to congratulate her on the passage of the infrastructure bill, a source familiar with the call told CNN. On the call, Pelosi thanked Biden for his help in getting the bill over the finish line as well.
House Passes $1 Trillion Infrastructure Bill, Putting Social Policy Bill on Hold - — The House passed a $1 trillion bill on Friday night to rebuild the country’s aging public works system, fund new climate resilience initiatives and expand access to high-speed internet service, giving final approval to a central plank of President Biden’s economic agenda after a daylong drama that pitted moderate Democrats against progressives. But an even larger social safety net and climate change bill was back on hold, with a half-dozen moderate-to-conservative Democrats withholding their votes until a nonpartisan analysis could tally its price tag. See How Every House Member Voted on the Infrastructure Bill » For Mr. Biden, passage of the infrastructure bill fulfilled a marquee legislative goal that he had promised to deliver since the early days of his presidency: the largest single investment of federal resources into infrastructure projects in more than a decade, including a substantial effort to fortify the nation’s response to the warming of the planet. “Tonight, we took a monumental step forward as a nation,” Mr. Biden said in a statement after the vote, lauding both the infrastructure and the social policy bills. “Generations from now, people will look back and know this is when America won the economic competition for the 21st century.” The drubbing Democrats took in off-year elections on Tuesday had given new urgency to the president’s demand for legislative action. On Friday, Mr. Biden put his credibility on the line, pleading with liberals to end their monthslong blockade and send him the public works measure immediately without passage of their priority, the social safety net measure. He backed passage of a rule for debating the social policy bill, called the Build Back Better Act, as a tangible sign that it, too, would soon pass. “He urged us to trust him,” said Representative Jared Huffman, Democrat of California, “but not blindly.” At 9 p.m., Mr. Biden made that plea public: “I am urging all members to vote for both the rule for consideration of the Build Back Better Act and final passage of the bipartisan infrastructure bill tonight,” he wrote. “I am confident that during the week of Nov. 15, the House will pass the Build Back Better Act.” He was expected to quickly sign the infrastructure bill into law. It will provide $550 billion in new funds over 10 years to shore up roads, bridges and highways, improve internet access and modernize the nation’s power grid. The measure also includes the United States’ largest investment to prepare for climate change: $50 billion to help communities grapple with the devastating fires, floods, storms and droughts that scientists say have been worsened by global warming. In a late-night vote that followed a day of near-death experiences for Mr. Biden’s agenda, the House passed the infrastructure measure on a 228-to-206 vote, with 13 Republicans bucking their party leadership and joining all but six Democrats in support. Its triumph was something of a vindication of Mr. Biden’s efforts to seek bipartisanship on a key issue that both parties have long viewed as a priority. But ultimately, passage came not just because of Republican backing but because liberal Democrats decided to trust balking centrists to eventually come to their side. Passage had been stalled for months, while liberals withheld their support to force an agreement on the social policy bill. Progressive Democrats had revolted anew on Friday, with many insisting that they could not back the measure without a vote on the social welfare bill. But moderates refused to support that legislation without an official cost estimate from the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office — which will most likely not arrive until mid-November — forcing Democrats to wrangle a late-night compromise that would allow action. In the end, enough progressives accepted a written commitment, released after 10 p.m., from five centrist colleagues that they would back the social safety net and climate package in mid-November, as long as the numbers add up.
Border GOP lawmakers urge Dem leaders to pull immigration provisions from spending bill, citing migrant crisis -- Republican lawmakers from border states on Wednesday wrote to Democratic congressional leaders, urging them to pull controversial immigration provisions -- including amnesty for illegal immigrants -- from the Democratic spending bill before Congress, warning that it will exacerbate the crisis at the southern border. The letter, led by Rep. Chip Roy, R-Texas, and signed on to by every House Republican lawmaker in a border state, tells Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer and House Speaker Nancy Pelosi that "we cannot afford to create new incentives to illegal migration in the midst of this crisis." There were more than 192,000 migrant encounters in September, down only slightly from the more than 200,000 encountered in July and August. It means that more than 1.7 million migrants were encountered in FY 2021.
House GOP introducing bill to block reported Biden plan to pay illegal immigrants up to $450K --Republicans in the House on Thursday will introduce a bill to block a reported plan by the Biden administration to pay millions of dollars to illegal immigrants separated under the Trump administration – as President Biden hassought to dismiss the reports.Rep. Tom McClintock, the ranking member of the House Judiciary Committee’s Subcommittee on Immigration and Citizenship, will introduce the Illegal Immigration Payoff Prohibition Act, which amends 28 USC 2414 – which gives the attorney general the authority to enter settlement agreements. The bill would block the attorney general from making any settlement payments to illegal immigrants that directly arise from their violation of immigration laws, including laws that criminalize illegal border crossings and that make a migrant inadmissible for attempting to enter a country illegally at a port of entry.The bill is co-sponsored by House Republican Leader Kevin McCarthy, Judiciary Committee Ranking Member Jim Jordan and 135 other members, and it represents a coordinated effort by House Republicans to block a reported plan by the Biden administration to pay $450,000 per migrant who was separated under the Trump administration’s "zero tolerance" policy. "Who says crime doesn’t pay? Under Biden it apparently pays very well indeed," McClintock said in a statement. "Law-abiding, hardworking Americans have seen their purchasing power decimated by Biden’s economic policies while he has surrendered our southern border. Paying illegal immigrants $450,000 apiece as an apology for Trump’s decision to enforce our immigration law adds insult to injury. Congress has the power of the purse, and that’s why we must act today to stop this outrageous plan in its tracks."
Biden labels report government to pay separated immigrants $450,000 'garbage' - President Biden responded Wednesday to a report that suggested his administration was mulling whether to make $450,000 payments to immigrants who were separated from their families at the border under former President Trump's administration, calling the reporting "garbage" and saying that it is "not gonna happen." Following remarks at the White House where he urged parents to get their children vaccinated, Biden was asked by Fox News White House Correspondent Peter Doocy about the Wall Street Journal's report and whether he believes it "might incentivize" immigrants to attempt to enter America illegally. Biden responded, "If you guys keep sending that garbage out, yeah, but it's not true." "So this is a garbage report," Doocy asked? "Yeah, $450,000 per person, is that what you said? That's not gonna happen," Biden stated. When asked by Doocy about the reported plan days ago while attending a G-20 press conference in Rome, Biden looked away and scratched his forehead.
A handful of billionaires received stimulus checks during the height of the pandemic: analysis - The nonprofit newsroom ProPublica released records from the IRS that revealed that 18 billionaires, alongside 250 other immensely-wealthy Americans, received federal aid that was set to go out to help middle-class and lower class Americans. ProPublica reported that the ultra-wealthy taxpayers who were recipients of the stimulus checks received them because they fell under the government's income bracket for the stimulus checks—as these wealthy Americans reported a much lower taxable income than their gross amounts after writing off money to businesses in order to wipe out their gains. Two-hundred seventy taxpayers disclosed a total of $5.7 billion in income altogether as shown on their tax return, however, they were able to deduct such enormous amounts, which in turn, qualified them for stimulus checks alongside everyday Americans, reports ProPublica. Some of the notable, affluent, stimulus-recipients include: Ira Rennerrt—worth $3.7 billlion—George Soros, the famous hedge fund manager and philanthropist worth $8.6 billion, and Timothy Headington, an oil mogul and executive producer of major films such as "Argo" and "World War Z"—reports ProPulica. Many of these extremely well-to-do figures are able to write off millions and millions of dollars. ProPublica reports that Headington had $62 million in income in 2018, but he wrote off a total of $342 million—far higher than his initial income—and came in negative $280 million in income. ProPublica reports that the amount of stimulus aid that wound up being received by the ultra-wealthy was a small piece of the trillions that went towards the CARES Act—the bill that was passed in 2020 to dole out stimulus checks to Americans in need during the beginning of the pandemic, alongside other financial aid assistance.However, ProPublica states, that the mere fact that billionaires were capable of qualifying through write-offs indicates that when legislators do rely on tax returns via income to determine aid eligibility the results can be unexpected. A George Soros' spokesperson told ProPublica, “George returned his stimulus check. He certainly didn’t request one!” ProPublica also notes that the Soros-funded Open Society Foundations have made donations to ProPublica.
White House press secretary Jen Psaki reveals she has COVID-19 - President Biden's press secretary Jen Psaki said on Sunday that she has tested positive for COVID-19, the highest-ranking White House official to have publicly revealed a case in this administration. Psaki, who is fully vaccinated, said she has experienced only mild symptoms. In a statement, she said she had not had contact with senior White House officials since Wednesday — four days before she tested positive — and last saw Biden on Tuesday, when they were wearing masks and were more than six feet apart from each other, outdoors. Breakthrough infections might not be a big transmission risk. Here's the evidence SHOTS - HEALTH NEWS Breakthrough infections might not be a big transmission risk. Here's the evidence "I am disclosing today's positive test out of an abundance of transparency," Psaki said in a statement. She said she will quarantine for at least ten days and won't return to the White House until receiving a negative rapid test. The White House had announced early on Thursday morning that Psaki would not be traveling with Biden to the G-20 summit in Rome due to a family emergency. That emergency, she said on Sunday, was that members of her household had tested positive for COVID-19. "Since then, I have quarantined and tested negative (via PCR) for COVID on Wednesday, Thursday, Friday, and Saturday. However, today, I tested positive for COVID," Psaki said. She said her symptoms are mild enough to continue working at home. Psaki is not the first White House press secretary to get COVID. During the Trump administration, before vaccines were available, her predecessor Kayleigh McEnany tested positive, as did the president, first lady, and many White House officials and aides. The Biden White House has been very cautious of the virus, requiring masks indoors except for a brief period this spring. White House staff who come in contact with the president are frequently tested.
Fauci blasts Paul for saying he is responsible for COVID pandemic -- America's top infectious disease doctor Anthony Fauci on Thursday blasted Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.) for suggesting he is somehow responsible for the COVID-19 pandemic. "You have said I am unwilling to take any responsibility for the current pandemic. I have no responsibility for the current pandemic," Fauci said. Paul accused Fauci of misleading the public about the role the National Institutes of Health played in funding potentially dangerous "gain of function research" in Wuhan, China, and suggested that the SARS-CoV-2 virus was the result of such research, and then was released into the world because of a lab leak. Paul is one of a handful of GOP lawmakers who have repeatedly tried to link the origin of the pandemic to Fauci, who runs the institute that helped fund some research at the Wuhan Institute of Virology with grant money sent through a nonprofit called EcoHealth Alliance. Gain-of-function is a controversial method where researchers make a pathogen more infectious, often to develop more effective treatments and vaccines. During a Senate Health Committee hearing about the federal COVID-19 response, Paul and Fauci clashed over the definition of "gain of function," which Paul said Fauci changed in order to "save your ass." He accused Fauci of lying about the role NIH has played, and said there could be even more dangerous viruses that could escape from Wuhan. "The preponderance of evidence points to this coming from a lab," Paul said. "Your persistent denials are a clear and present danger to the country and the world." An investigation into the origins of the virus conducted by U.S. intelligence agencies broadly agreed that the virus was not developed as a biological weapon or through genetic engineering, but the true origins may never be known. Both a lab leak and natural origination are plausible, the report found, but neither can be proved definitively.
Vaccine mandate for businesses published, setting Jan. 4 deadline | TheHill - The Biden administration published its vaccination mandate for businesses on Thursday, setting a Jan. 4 deadline, in line with the date set for health care workers and employees of federal contractors. The administration said it was on strong legal grounds with the rule, which an official noted is not technically a vaccine mandate, as businesses can also choose to make regular testing and mask-wearing an option. The mandate, which applies to businesses with at least 100 employees and is expected to cover 84 million people, was developed by the Occupational Safety and Health Administration (OSHA). Senior administration officials said OSHA’s emergency temporary standard (ETS) to enact the mandate is “well within OSHA’s authority under the law and consistent with OSHA's requirements to protect workers from health and safety hazards, including infectious diseases.” Officials also said there is “well established legal precedent” for OSHA's authority to develop safety and health standards and that OSHA has “broad authority” to issue and enforce health and safety standards. When Biden announced the sweeping vaccine-or-test mandate in September, he faced immediate and fierce opposition from Republican governors. Texas Gov. Greg Abbott (R), who ordered that no business in Texas can impose a vaccine mandate on employees or customers, and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R), who sought to ban vaccine mandates in his states, have vowed to fight the vaccine mandate in court. OSHA plans to have programed or planned inspections, where agents go into workplaces to check that the workplace is in compliance with the rule. For what OSHA refers to as willful violations, a company can be fined $136,532. The standard penalty is $13,653 for a single violation, and the number would increase if there are multiple violations in a workplace.
Biden defends COVID-19 vaccination mandate for businesses - President Biden on Thursday defended his administration's coronavirus vaccination mandate for businesses, arguing it will not lead to worker shortages amid pushback from Republicans over the impact it could have on the economy. The Labor Department released the sweeping vaccine-or-test mandate, which applies to businesses with at least 100 employees, on Thursday and set a Jan. 4 deadline for companies to comply. “As we’ve seen with businesses – large and small – across all sectors of our economy, the overwhelming majority of Americans choose to get vaccinated,” Biden said in a statement. “There have been no ‘mass firings’ and worker shortages because of vaccination requirements. Despite what some predicted and falsely assert, vaccination requirements have broad public support.” The president also argued that vaccine requirements are nothing new, noting they exist for other diseases, and that safety requirements are also not new. He said that he “would have much preferred that requirements not become necessary” but that the requirements are because “too many people” are unvaccinated. The mandate is expected to cover 84 million people and was developed by the Occupational Safety and Health Administration (OSHA). OSHA plans to conduct workplace inspections and the standard penalty is $13,653 for a single violation, which would increase if there are multiple violations. “The virus will not go away by itself, or because we wish it away: we have to act. Vaccination is the single best pathway out of this pandemic,” Biden said. Republicans have criticized the mandate since Biden first announced it in September. Republican governors, including Texas Gov. Greg Abbott and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, have vowed to fight it in court. The top Republican on the House Education and Labor Committee, Rep. Virginia Foxx (R-N.C.), issued a statement on Thursday, saying “job creators should not be forced to become the vaccine-and-testing police for [Biden].” She said businesses are already dealing with worker shortages, rampant inflation and a broken supply chain.
Assisted living providers sound the alarm over lack of COVID-19 aid = Senior living providers are mounting a last-ditch effort to secure pandemic aid in Democrats’ $1.75 trillion social spending bill after they were largely excluded from previous relief packages. Industry trade group Argentum says that assisted living facilities, which care for around 2 million seniors, have lost $30 billion during the pandemic due to increased expenses and low occupancy rates compounded by staff shortages. But these operators have only received $640 million in COVID-19 relief, a sliver of the $178 billion Provider Relief Fund that has favored hospitals and nursing homes. Argentum is pushing lawmakers to allow senior living facilities to access the reconciliation package’s massive caregiving grants and benefit from its workforce development programs. They are excluded under the current bill that House Democrats aim to pass soon. “It’s so incredibly frustrating,” said Maggie Elehwany, Argentum’s senior vice president of public policy. “It feels like we keep going to Capitol Hill, and everyone agrees this is an injustice, and they’ll make sure we’re included in the next bill, and the next bill … and it just doesn’t seem to happen.” The group recently launched an ad campaign targeting President Biden and key Democratic senators in Arizona, Delaware, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Virginia and West Virginia. “Our most vulnerable citizens in assisted living centers need your help as they recover from COVID-19,” one ad tells Biden. “Don’t leave us behind, again.” Because assisted living facilities are regulated at the state level and don’t interact much with federal programs like Medicare and Medicaid, they haven’t historically had a large presence in Washington, D.C. That’s become evident in meetings with lawmakers. “People literally assumed we were getting funding, but we weren’t,” Elehwany said.
GOP senators call on federal employees to return to office, citing 'widespread lack of responsiveness' - Republican senators on Thursday called on federal employees to return to in-person work immediately, citing a "widespread lack of responsiveness" to American taxpayers. A group of 42 GOP senators, led by Sen. Roger Wicker of Mississippi, sent a letter to the Office of Personnel Management (OPM), the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), and the General Services Administration (GSA) demanding answers on why many federal offices remain closed, despite a June order from the Biden administration requiring agencies to provide a plan for employees to return to work. "We wish to express our concern about the widespread lack of responsiveness and accessibility across the federal government on account of current agency work plans. We request immediate action to transition federal workers back to in-person operations," the letter stated. "Businesses have now reopened, children and teachers have returned to in-person learning, and health care and public safety workers continue to show up for work," it continued. "Yet we continue to hear from constituents in our states about a lack of responsiveness from federal agencies." The senators said that after contacting more than 20 federal agencies, only one could provide an outline of its return-to-work plans.
California reps target shipping backlog at ports with bipartisan legislation - California Reps. Josh Harder (D) and Michelle Steel (R) introduced new legislation on Thursday to address the port backlog in their state, which has contributed to the ongoing supply chain issues in the U.S. The Supply Chain Taskforce Act would direct the commandant of the Coast Guard to create an interagency task force aimed at addressing the backlog at the ports of Los Angeles, Long Beach and along the coasts of southern California. Coast Guard Commandant Adm. Karl L. Schultz, would be made chair of the task force, which would include at least one member from multiple government agencies including the Environmental Protection Agency, Department of Defense, Department of Justice, the State Department and the Federal Emergency Management Agency. Under the bill, the chair of the task force would also be permitted to appoint representatives from Orange County, Calif., the Port of Los Angeles, the Port of Long Beach and the California state government. The duties assigned to the task force would include quantifying the impact and cost of the backlogs at the California ports; evaluate the response that federal agencies have made to the backlogs; and investigate the cause of the massive oil spill that occurred off the coast of Orange County in October. “Our families are facing rising prices at the grocery store while our farmers are struggling to get their products to market and we know exactly why — the crisis at our ports,” Harder said in a statement. “Democrats and Republicans agree that we need to get prices under control and let our folks get back to shipping their products around the globe. This bill puts politics aside so we can actually address this crisis.” Steel added that "without leadership we will have another crisis on our hands, and it’s time for action.”The congestion at the California ports has prompted officials on all levels to act. The Biden administration announced last month that the ports would be moving to 24-hour operations.California Gov. Gavin Newsom signed an executive order on Oct. 20 directing state agencies to identify state-owned properties that could help alleviate the storage needs at the ports. The order also sought to identify freight routes that could be exempted from vehicle weight limits in order to allow more goods to be transported.Officials at the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach announced last week that they would be fining shipping companies for vessels that stay in the ports for too long, with the fees derived from this action invested into programs designed to enhance efficiency.
Holder says he's 'concerned' penalties for some Jan. 6 defendants not high enough - Obama-era Attorney General Eric Holder said Thursday he is "concerned" that some of the sentences being brought against defendants in the Jan. 6 Capitol insurrection are not high enough. While speaking with Wolf Blitzer at CNN's Citizen Conference, Holder was asked if he believed federal authorities are being aggressive enough towards the rioters. "I do think that the Department of Justice is doing a good job. This is a resource-intense issue. You know, I guess there have been I guess 400 people or so charged at this point, potentially more," Holder said. "Anybody who participated in that coup attempt on January the sixth has to be held accountable, has to be identified and then held accountable. And so I think the Justice Department is doing a good job so far." However, he added, "I'm a little concerned as I think some judges have indicated that we've watched at least some of the cases, the penalties that were sought by the Justice Department were not necessarily high enough." More than 650 individuals have been arrested over their alleged involvement in the deadly Capitol attack. Most have been charged with entering a restricted building, violent entry or obstructing an official proceeding, though many others have also been charged for allegedly assaulting law enforcement officers. Asked how he felt about the strength of America's future democracy, Holder said he was "ultimately optimistic," but still "very worried." "We have not seen attacks on the system, our democratic system, probably ever in our nation, but certainly maybe since you know, since the Civil War, when we had an outright rebellion," he said. "We have people now who are not committed to American democracy but more committed to the retention of power, trying to keep their fellow citizens away from the polls, trying to interfere with our infrastructure through gerrymandering." Holder expressed hope that all people, regardless of political affiliation, would begin to focus on these issues in a way they haven't before, saying once that happens, "we'll get to a better place."
Carville blames 'stupid wokeness' for Democratic losses - Democratic political strategist James Carville blamed his party's recent losses and weak performance in state elections on "stupid wokeness" on Wednesday."PBS NewsHour" host Judy Woodruff asked Carville what went wrong for the Democratic Party in the Virginia gubernatorial race in which Republican Glenn Youngkin beat former Gov. Terry McAuliffe."What went wrong is just stupid wokeness. Don't just look at Virginia and New Jersey. Look at Long Island, look at Buffalo, look at Minneapolis, even look at Seattle, Wash. I mean, this 'defund the police' lunacy, this take Abraham Lincoln's name off of schools. I mean that — people see that," Carville said."It's just really — has a suppressive effect all across the country on Democrats. Some of these people need to go to a 'woke' detox center or something," he added. "They're expressing a language that people just don't use, and there's backlash and a frustration at that."
The Inspector General’s Report on JPMorgan’s London Whale Is a Guide to What to Expect from Its Probe of the Fed’s Trading Scandal -The Office of Inspector General (OIG) for the Federal Reserve is conducting an investigation of the trading activities that led to the resignations of Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan and Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren on September 27. The trading of other Fed officials may also be under the microscope.The OIG investigations are conducted by federal criminal investigators who have the power to “carry firearms, seek and execute search and arrest warrants, and make arrests without a warrant in certain circumstances.” The investigative findings can be referred to the U.S. Department of Justice for criminal or civil prosecution, if warranted.In the case of Kaplan, the matter belongs in the hands of the Department of Justiceright now. Despite having ongoing access to market-moving information throughout 2020, Kaplan was trading in and out of S&P 500 futures in individual trades of “over $1 million.” S&P 500 futures are used to make market-timing bets, something that no official of the Federal Reserve should ever be doing. (See Kaplan’s 2015 through 2020 financial disclosure forms here.)The U.S. stock market is open from 9:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. (ET) Monday through Friday. But S&P 500 futures trade around the clock during weekdays. The E-mini S&P 500 futures contract is the most popular and liquid S&P 500 futures contract. It can be leveraged by as much as 95 percent. The E-mini trades continuously from 6 p.m. Sunday night through 5 p.m. on Friday evening (EDT), allowing someone who might wish to trade on inside information a much larger window of opportunity to do so than stock trading.Kaplan appeared to have a trading relationship with Goldman Sachs, an entity supervised by the Federal Reserve. Kaplan had previously worked at Goldman Sachs for 22 years, rising to the rank of Vice Chairman.Wall Street On Parade emailed a total of five Goldman Sachs media relations staff inquiring as to whether Kaplan was conducting his S&P 500 trades and/or his individual stock trades of “over $1 million” at their firm. The company declined to answer our questions.If the OIG investigators do their job properly, they will no doubt report that compliance officials at the brokerage firm Kaplan was using to place his trades raised red flags to superiors about the nature of his trading while being a Fed insider. It is also likely that the OIG will report that their complaints fell on deaf ears among their superiors. Why do we suspect that this will be one outcome? Because that’s precisely what happened when the Federal Reserve’s OIG investigated JPMorgan Chase’s London Whale trading scandal.
Congress coalescing around need for Libor replacement bill — Congress is moving closer to advancing legislation to address potential fallout from the transition to a new interest rate benchmark.Regulators have made clear that banks cannot enter into new contracts using the London interbank offered rate after 2021. Legacy contracts can refer to Libor until mid-2023, but after that contracts could be nullified if they still use the old reference rate and remedial action is not taken.At a hearing Tuesday, Republicans and Democrats agreed that providing automatic fallback language for trillions of dollars' worth of legacy loans and other contracts is a priority. Though policymakers say banks can use a new benchmark of their own choosing, legislative proposals for an automatic fallback rate favor using the Secured Overnight Financing Rate.
Banks plead for return of pandemic capital relief. Will Fed grant it? - — When the Federal Reserve allowed capital relief provided to banks at the outset of the pandemic to lapse this past March, the central bank said a permanent fix was likely needed to account for the massive influx of cash to the financial system. But months later, the Fed has not moved to alter the supplementary leverage ratio, an extra buffer imposed on the biggest banks that is supposed to serve as a secondary capital requirement. The SLR levies the same capital requirement on all bank assets, regardless of their risk. The Fed’s inaction has become a headache for several big banks, making their SLR requirements a so-called “binding constraint” instead of relegating the ratio to its usual backup role. That means those banks have fewer incentives to invest in safe assets, like U.S. Treasuries, and more incentives to take on more risk.
Narrower SBA direct lending plan fails to appease banks, credit unions - In a bid to win support among moderate lawmakers for its Build Back Better plan, the Biden administration agreed to more than halve the budget for a proposal that would let the Small Business Administration make direct loans. But even a hefty budget cut isn't enough to appease the banks and credit unions that oppose the plan. The funding for direct SBA loans was slashed from $4.5 billion to $1.965 billion in the revised spending plan. The program allows the SBA to make 7(a) loans of $150,000 or less to disadvantaged small businesses that struggle to obtain credit from private-sector lenders. Under the 7(a) program, the SBA guarantees loans of up to $5 million that banks and credit unions make to borrowers who meet certain eligibility requirements. Smaller lenders, especially credit unions, see the SBA's direct-lending plan as direct competition, even if it's narrower in scope now than the original proposal.
FDIC launches office to promote minority banking efforts- The Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. is establishing an office to oversee agency efforts to get more capital to minority-owned banks and community development financial institutions.The Office of Minority and Community Development Banking “will further promote private sector investments in low- and moderate-income communities,” the FDIC said in a press release Tuesday. The office follows the September launch of an investment fund organized by the FDIC that connects private investors to minority-owned banks and CDFIs that need capital.“Mission driven banks are the financial lifeblood of their communities, enabling individuals and minority-owned small businesses to securely build savings and obtain credit,” FDIC Chair Jelena McWilliams said in the press release. “By establishing the Office of Minority and Community Development Banking, we expand our engagement and collaboration in support of these institutions as part of a broader commitment to increasing financial inclusion.”
Keep Biden’s environmental agenda out of bank regulation | American Banker -- By Rep. Andy Barr, R-Ky.- The Financial Stability Oversight Council last week released its long-awaited report on mitigating climate risk in the financial sector. As expected, the report is yet another example of the Biden administration’s efforts to weaponize financial regulation to advance partisan, radical environmental goals.Created after the 2008 financial crisis as part of the sweeping Dodd-Frank financial regulatory reforms, the FSOC brings together the heads of all the federal financial regulatory agencies, essentially forming a superregulator. The FSOC has a very clear mandate: to identify and mitigate systemic risk in the financial sector.Systemic risk has a specific definition and is distinct from traditional business risk. Systemic risk, if left unchecked, can suddenly, without warning, bring down the financial system. Traditional business risk can be mitigated through the prudent risk management of banks, insurance companies and other financial sector participants. The 2008 financial crisis is a good case study in true systemic risk. Poor underwriting standards in mortgages and declining asset prices, combined with complicated financial products tied to those mortgages in an interconnected financial system, caused the perfect storm and brought our financial system to the brink of collapse.With this as context, would a reasonable observer view climate change as truly a systemic risk, analogous to the causes of the 2008 financial crisis? Could changing weather patterns, a process occurring over decades, cause our markets to suddenly seize up and bring down the financial system? I find that difficult to believe, yet that is precisely what this report suggests. At best, it is hyperbole. At worst, it is another disingenuous attempt by the Biden administration to leverage the financial regulatory system to advance extreme environmental policies under the guise of safety and soundness. To be sure, there are financial impacts associated with extreme weather events. Increased frequency of flooding and wildfires pose risk to insured property. Banks must take risks of extreme weather into account when underwriting loans. The financial sector — banks, insurers, reinsurers — are managing that risk through enhanced underwriting standards, mitigation incentives or higher prices. But this hardly necessitates invoking the powers of America’s superregulator.Among the FSOC’s authorities is its ability to designate nonbank financial companies as “systemically important financial institutions,” or SIFIs, essentially labeling those firms as too big to fail. Once designated, firms are subjected to enhanced oversight by federal regulators. This regulatory meat cleaver used to be the FSOC’s preferred tool.To her credit, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen has publicly stated that she intends to maintain the FSOC’s reliance on an activities-based approach. Unfortunately, she is getting pressure from the radical wing of the Democratic Party, including Sen. Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass., to revert to the FSOC’s “meat cleaver” approach. Congressional Democrats view the FSOC as an underutilized tool to impose burdensome regulations on the financial sector and possibly regulate out of existence industries they despise.
Fed knows its limits in combating climate risks, Powell says — Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said whether banks lend to fossil fuel companies is “not a decision for bank regulators or any agency,” but he defended the central bank’s work to examine the risks that climate change could pose to the financial system. “Our existing mandates are really prudential regulation of financial institutions,” he said during a press conference Wednesday after a meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee. “We expect them — and the public will expect us to expect them — to understand and be in a position to manage their risks.” Powell said that while the central bank feels that it does have a role to play combatting the effects of climate change, policies on who banks should do business with are “decision[s] for elected representatives.”
People of color, young borrowers likelier to file credit disputes: CFPB \w— Families in majority Black and Hispanic communities, younger consumers, and those with low credit scores have a higher likelihood of disputes appearing on their credit reports, the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau said. The agency analyzed credit data from 2012 to 2019 and found that families living in majority Black and Hispanic census tracts were more likely to file disputes with credit bureaus over inaccurate information than families in white neighborhoods. Left uncorrected, mistakes in a borrower’s credit report can limit opportunities for financial access. Consumer advocates have complained for years that the process to fix credit records is harder than it should be.
ING to shut controversial payments unit Payvision -The Dutch bank ING Group plans to close Payvision, an international payment processor that is under investigation for processing hundreds of millions of dollars in payments that resulted from illegal investment schemes.The $1.1 trillion-asset ING acquired the Netherlands-based payment company in 2018 for about $420 million. Payvision competes with Adyen, a Dutch payment processor that has boosted its international profile in recent years.Payvision quickly became subject to a claim from the European Union cybercrime unit European Funds Recovery Initiative, which claimed Payvision had processed about $160 million in fraudulent transactions that predated the ING deal.
House Democrats urge CFPB to examine buy now/pay later The rapid rise of the buy now/pay later sector drew congressional attention Tuesday, with lawmakers weighing the benefits and possible risks of the emerging payment method. Democrats were relatively skeptical of BNPL lenders, whose short-term installment loans, typically offered through merchant websites, have grown in popularity during the pandemic. At a House hearing, they questioned whether the products put consumers at risk of falling behind on loan payments and urged regulators to examine the industry. Rep. Maxine Waters, the California Democrat who chairs the House Financial Services Committee, said the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau should be “looking deeply” at BNPL lenders and getting a full understanding of their products.
S&P 500 Sets New Record By Surging 37% During Biden's First Year As President -During the past year, since more than 150MM Americans voted in the 2020 election, the US has had to contend with the lingering fallout from an unprecedented pandemic, has struggled with surging gas prices and inflation the likes of which haven't been seen in decades, all while crime and drug overdose deaths have spiked, and thousands of small businesses (and even many corporations) are struggling to find enough workers to keep operating. But despite all this, the US stock market - or, to be more specific, the S&P 500 - has surged 37% since Nov. 3, 2020, capping off its best year following a US presidential election in history. However, those trying to justify this outcome are having great difficulty pinning it on fundamentals; rather, it seems even professional money managers are finally admitting that the market's performance has more to do with the "everything rally" than any specific policy decision. According to Bloomberg, Charles Schwab UK Managing Director Richard Flynn said the "everything rally" began following the vaccine rollout. But anybody who has been paying attention to markets for the last decade - especially since the start of the pandemic - knows that vaccines more than likely have nothing to do with the US equity market's performance. The real driver of the rally is - as it has been since the Fed launched its grand monetary experiment in the wake of the financial crisis - the Fed, and the torrent of liquidity provided by the expansion of its balance sheet.
S&P 500 sets seventh straight all-time high on Wall Street – (AP) — U.S. stocks pushed further into record heights on Friday following an encouraging report on hiring across the country, though trading was shaky as the bond market was hit with another day of sharp swings. The S&P 500 rose 17.47, or 0.4%, to 4,697.53 and clinched an all-time high for the seventh straight day. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 203.72, or 0.6%, to 36,327.95, and the Nasdaq composite added 31.28, or 0.2%, to 15,971.59. Trading was scattershot, though, and after climbing to an early gain of 0.8%, the S&P 500 at one point gave up virtually all of it. Stocks retrenched in the middle of the day as Treasury yields surprisingly slumped. A measure of nervousness in the stock market also made a U-turn higher around the same time. The 10-year yield, which tends to move with expectations for the economy and inflation, dropped to 1.45% and is near its lowest level since September. It was at 1.58% just two days earlier. Analysts had varying explanations for that and other sharp moves in the bond market, which some called counterintuitive. The Dow and Nasdaq nevertheless still joined the S&P 500 in setting all-time highs. The smaller stocks in the Russell 2000 performed even better, jumping 1.4% An encouraging report from Pfizer helped to lift the market, particularly companies that most need daily life to return to normal from the pandemic. Pfizer rose 10.9% after it said its experimental pill sharply cut rates of hospitalization and death for COVID-19 patients. Airlines, casinos, cruise lines and live-event companies had similar jumps. The headline report of the day was the one from the Labor Department that showed employers hired a net 531,000 workers in October. That was more than 100,000 above economists’ expectations. The gains were widespread across industries, and the government also revised higher the numbers for job growth in earlier months. One potential worry spot for markets was a big jump in workers’ wages, up 4.9% from a year earlier, which can feed into concerns about inflation. But the numbers were relatively in line with economists’ expectations. “It was one of those Goldilocks reports,” Besides showing stronger-than-expected hiring, “the simple reality was it wasn’t showing any overheating either.” That’s why it was surprising that the 10-year Treasury yield fell so sharply to 1.44% from 1.52% late Thursday.
Elon Musk is now 3 times as rich as Warren Buffett and worth more than the GDP of his home country of South Africa - Just days after Elon Musk became the first person to hit $300 billion in wealth, the Tesla CEO is now worth three times as much as the investing wizard Warren Buffett.That's according to the Bloomberg Billionaires Index, which on Monday estimated the tech mogul's fortune at $335 billion after a $24 billion single-day gain. In comparison, the Berkshire Hathaway CEO Buffett was worth an estimated $104 billion.Musk's wealth on the index is higher than the gross domestic product of his home country, South Africa, which totaled $301.9 billion last year, per data from the World Bank.As tracked by Bloomberg, Musk's net worth has soared by $165 billion this year. His gains Monday were driven by an 8.5% rise in Tesla's share price, Bloomberg first reported. The multibillionaire owned about 22.4% of the company at the start of the year.Last week, a 13% leap in Tesla's stock price netted Musk $36 billion — the largest single-day surge Bloomberg had ever recorded — after news emerged that the car-rental firm Hertz ordered 100,000 Teslas. Musk, 50, now sits at a comfortable $142 billion above the world's second-richest man — Amazon's founder, Jeff Bezos, whose net worth Bloomberg puts at $193 billion.Tesla's stock is up 65.6% this year, despite dips in March and May.On Sunday, Musk tweeted that he was open to selling shares in the electric-car maker worth $6 billion to alleviate world hunger based on a plea from the director of the UN's World Food Programme.
Wall Street cop Gensler pledges big cases, faster investigations -Securities and Exchange Commission Chair Gary Gensler warned the financial industry that he won’t shy away from going after big firms pushing the limits in areas that are priorities for the agency, including crypto trading, cyber fraud and SPACs. Wall Street’s top regulator, making his first speech on his approach to enforcement, said he wanted to speed up probes and “hold bad actors accountable,” especially when it comes to headline-grabbing infractions. “Such high-impact cases are important. They change behavior,” Gensler said Thursday in prepared remarks for an appearance at the Securities Enforcement Forum. “They send a message to the rest of the market, to participants of various sizes, that certain misconduct will not be permitted.”
Lawmakers urge Treasury to implement shell-company law — Senior congressional Democrats urged the Treasury Department to move faster to implement a law passed last year cracking down on anonymous shell companies ahead of a fast-approaching deadline. Passed by Congress in late 2020 with veto-proof majorities, the Corporate Transparency Act requires businesses to report their beneficial ownership directly to the Financial Crimes Enforcement Network when the company incorporates. The measure was seen as a significant source of regulatory relief for bankers, who would no longer be required to uncover and send that information about their business customers to Fincen. But almost a year after the legislation’s passage, Democratic lawmakers now appear concerned that Fincen is dragging its feet. The law set an implementation deadline of Jan. 1, 2022.
‘Shoddy’ screening methods by credit reporting firms are illegal: CFPB - Consumer reporting companies that use only an applicant's name to screen potential tenants and employees run the risk of using inaccurate information, the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau said Thursday. The CFPB issued an advisory opinion warning the large credit bureaus as well as specialty screening companies that using "shoddy" name-only matching procedures to check the credit histories of rental and job applicants violates federal law. The bureau is concerned that consumers are being denied loans, housing and even jobs when their names are mixed up by subsidiaries of the giant credit reporting companies and newer entrants to the background screening industry.
866-662-3339: The “Equifax” Verification Fraud as Illustration of Pervasive Scamming in the US by Yves Smith -As they say in Dune, we need a naming. In this case, it’s of the pervasive scamming that employs far too many resources in the US that could be deployed to just about any better use. I’ll turn to the Equifax 866-662-3339 offense in short order. I am sure it and other grifts mentioned below will be all too familiar to Americans. I wonder if our readers in other countries are subject to anywhere near the level of low level cons that we are.What has gotten me frosted is that an unconscionably large amount of our economy is participating in attempts to rip off others. One bit of evidence is every week, I receive at least one scam mail piece.And I now have little sympathy with the people who work in these jobs. The economy is strong enough that there’s no need to work for a business where you are on the front lines of preying on others.The cancerous growth of this sort of cheating results from toothless laws meant to combat it, like “Do not call” lists and the CAN-SPAM, meant to fill the void left by the effective extermination of class action lawyers. Those bounty-hunters were in the business of going after enterprises that ripped customers off on the pennies to hundreds of dollars each level, but in volume. John Kenneth Galbraith coined the bezzle, or “an inventory of undiscovered embezzlement,”which is the apparent increase in wealth a victim enjoys after investing in a scam before it collapses. Think Theranos investors. Common scams have names, such as bait and switch, kiting, Ponzi schemes and of course spam. But there’s a wide-spread type of abuse where the perps get in your face on a fraudulent basis, by misrepresenting their relationship to you, and then seek to extract cash or information. Moving to Alabama has exposed me to a vast range of commercial chicanery of which I was largely ignorant in my cloistered life in Manhattan. Mind you, I am excluding the barrage of Internet spam I get every day, from the many new improved version of the Nigerian scam, to SEO shysters, to bait and switch ad brokers, to politicians I never heard of hustling me to give to their dipshit campaigns, to publicists pimping for interviews of fourth-tier experts on (mainly not) hot topics, to never-ending “Do you accept guest posts” and “What is your price for a link?” Oh, and dangerous phishing: all sorts of designed-to-generate-panicked clicking of links and documents with God only knows what spy or malware, anything from “Your e-mail account is about to be cancelled” to various supposed fraud or overdraft or big charge notices from financial institutions, to supposed overdue invoices, to tracking information from shippers I never use, to fake order requests. I tune all this stuff out even though I get at least 200 messages like that a day. The most widespread low level grift seems to be the auto warranty scam, which is so pervasive that it’s become a meme:
New York expands CRA requirements to nonbank mortgage lenders - — New York Gov. Kathy Hochul on Monday signed legislation expanding the state’s version of the Community Reinvestment Act to apply the anti-redlining law’s obligations to nonbank mortgage lenders. The bill follows a recommendation earlier this year from the New York State Department of Financial Services that state legislators amend the law to capture mortgage lenders, which have taken significant market share of the mortgage origination business from banks since the 2008 financial crisis. "This expansion of the New York Community Reinvestment Act further strengthens this state's commitment to ensuring all New Yorkers have the opportunity for homeownership," Hochul said in a statement.
MBA Survey: "Share of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Decreases to 2.15%" --From the MBA: Share of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Decreases to 2.15%: -The Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) latest Forbearance and Call Volume Survey revealed that the total number of loans now in forbearance decreased by 6 basis points from 2.21% of servicers’ portfolio volume in the prior week to 2.15% as of October 24, 2021. According to MBA’s estimate, 1.1 million homeowners are in forbearance plans.The share of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac loans in forbearance decreased 3 basis points to 0.97%. Ginnie Mae loans in forbearance decreased 7 basis points to 2.65%, and the forbearance share for portfolio loans and private-label securities (PLS) declined 8 basis points to 5.13%. The percentage of loans in forbearance for independent mortgage bank (IMB) servicers decreased 6 basis points relative to the prior week to 2.43%, and the percentage of loans in forbearance for depository servicers decreased 4 basis points to 2.07%. “For the first time since March 2020, the share of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac loans in forbearance dropped below 1 percent. A small decline for this investor category was matched by similarly small declines for Ginnie Mae and portfolio/PLS loans,” said Mike Fratantoni, MBA’s Senior Vice President and Chief Economist. “Forbearance exits slowed at the end of October to the slowest pace since late August. With so many borrowers having reached the end of their 18-month forbearance term, we expect a steady pace of exits in November.”This graph shows the percent of portfolio in forbearance by investor type over time. The number of forbearance plans is decreasing rapidly recently since many homeowners have reached the end of the 18-month term.Some stats on exits:
Of the cumulative forbearance exits for the period from June 1, 2020, through October 24, 2021, at the time of forbearance exit:
• 29.1% resulted in a loan deferral/partial claim.
• 20.6% represented borrowers who continued to make their monthly payments during their forbearance period.
• 16.7% represented borrowers who did not make all of their monthly payments and exited forbearance without a loss mitigation plan in place yet.
• 13.1% resulted in a loan modification or trial loan modification.
• 12.0% resulted in reinstatements, in which past-due amounts are paid back when exiting forbearance.
• 7.1% resulted in loans paid off through either a refinance or by selling the home.
• The remaining 1.4% resulted in repayment plans, short sales, deed-in-lieus or other reasons.
The Mess of China’s Over-Leveraged Property Developers Spills into California - One of China’s many troubled mega property developers, China Oceanwide Holdings based in Beijing, is swaggering toward dismemberment. And its tentacles reach into the US, with a not-yet started condo tower at Manhattan’s South Street Seaport; the huge three-tower Oceanwide Plaza in Los Angeles, where construction was halted in 2019, amid a tangle of lawsuits and unpaid contractors; and the huge two-tower Oceanwide Center in San Francisco, the biggest ulcer in the center of the City, five years after groundbreaking.In terms of the San Francisco project, construction was halted on the 54-floor tower in 2019 when it reached grade, amid doubts about its commercial viability. In 2020, construction was halted on the 61-floor tower when it reached grade. The company had run out of money. By early 2021, nearly all the construction equipment was removed.The whole project with an original budget of $1.6 billion was supposed to contain a Waldorf-Astoria, condos, and tons of office space – when over a quarter of San Francisco’s office space is now available for lease. The project is tangled up in numerous lawsuits and mechanics liens filed by unpaid contractors. The general contractor withdrew from the project (photo by Wolf Richter, May 24, 2021): Oceanwide has tried to sell the San Francisco project multiple times and even found potentially interested buyers – including Boston Properties, which owns the nearby Salesforce Tower; SPF Capital International, an affiliate of Beijing-based SPF Group; and Hony Capital, a Beijing-based PE firm. But those deals went nowhere.So this got a lot more complicated. Two offshore entities of China’s Oceanwide Holdings – Oceanwide Holdings International Co. and Oceanwide Holdings International Financial Development Co. – had issued two notes, totaling 2.5 billion Hong Kong dollars ($321 million) to two different firms:
- HK$1.4 billion to a Singapore entity of Haitong International Financial Services in 2019
- HK$1.1 billion in notes to Spring Progress Investment Solutions in 2018.
Both notes were backed by collateral consisting of the entities’ shares in China Oceanwide Holdings and shares in the San Francisco Project.When the notes matured, the entities failed to pay them off. The two creditors have now taken over the collateral, including the San Francisco Oceanwide Center, according to a Shenzhen Stock Exchange filing on Thursday by China Oceanwide Holdings, reported by Reuters.It remains to be seen what the foundation of a huge project that may be commercially unviable is worth. And it remains to be seen what other claims are against it, on top of the $150 million in mechanics liens. And sorting this out can get very complicated.
Mortgage Rates Catch Up To Last Week's Market Movement (That's a Good Thing) - Mortgage rates moved moderately lower today despite an absence of significant movement in the bond market. In general, when bonds improve, rates fall (and vice versa), but it's not feasible for mortgage lenders to adjust their rates offerings in relative real-time as bonds can send massively mixed signals on any given day. Last Friday was just such a day. It began with bonds doing very poorly. The weakness was in place before the average lender published their first rate sheet of the day, so mortgage rates started out higher. As the day progressed, bonds improved enough for many lenders to make mid-day improvements to rates, but bonds suggested the improvements should have been bigger. That's where today came in. Bonds began weaker yet again, but not nearly to the same extent seen on Friday. As the day progressed, the situation improved. By avoiding a regression into Friday's weaker territory, this morning's bond market pricing invited lenders to offer slightly lower rates. Furthermore, as bonds additional headway in the afternoon, lenders were reassured enough to offer mid-day price improvements that take the average conventional 30yr fixed scenario back to the best levels since last Wednesday.
CoreLogic: House Prices up 18% YoY in September - Notes: This CoreLogic House Price Index report is for September. The CoreLogic HPI is a three month weighted average and is not seasonally adjusted (NSA). From CoreLogic: US Annual Home Price Growth Hits 18% in September as Supply and Demand Imbalances Intensify, CoreLogic Reports: Demand for homebuying remained strong through the end of the summer. However, the ongoing housing supply shortage has continued to drive up prices, which increased 18% year over year in September, to record highs creating additional challenges for entry into the homebuying market. High demand and low supply levels for entry-level homes, in particular, are sidelining many would-be first-time buyers.As millennials continue to make up a large part of homebuying demand and flock to tech hubs like Seattle; San Jose, California and Austin, Texas, we may see this challenge intensify. This is reflected in a recent CoreLogic consumer survey, with 47.9% of this cohort stating they cannot afford to purchase a home in their preferred area.“The pandemic led prospective buyers to seek detached homes in communities with lower population density, such as suburbs and exurbs,” said Frank Martell, president and CEO of CoreLogic. “As we head into 2022, we expect some moderation in the current pattern of flight away from urban cores as the pandemic wanes.”...Nationally, home prices increased 18% in September 2021, compared to September 2020. On a month-over-month basis, home prices increased by 1.1% compared to August 2021....In September, appreciation of detached properties (19.6%) was 7.4 percentage points higher than that of attached properties (12.2%).
MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest Weekly Survey - From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey — Mortgage applications decreased 3.3 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending October 29, 2021.... The Refinance Index decreased 4 percent from the previous week and was 33 percent lower than the same week one year ago. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 2 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index decreased 3 percent compared with the previous week and was 9 percent lower than the same week one year ago.“Mortgage rates decreased for the first time since August, as concerns about supply-chain bottlenecks, waning consumer confidence, weaker economic growth, and rising inflation pushed Treasury yields lower. Most of the decline in rates came later in the week, which is likely why refinance applications declined to the lowest level since January 2020, and the overall share of activity fell to the lowest since July 2021,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s Associate Vice President of Economic and Industry Forecasting. “Government refinance applications fell for the sixth straight week, as it becomes evident that an increasing number of borrowers have already refinanced.” “Purchase activity continues to be held back by high prices and low for-sale inventory, but current applications levels still point to healthy housing demand. MBA is forecasting for a record $1.6 billion in purchase mortgage originations this year, and sustained demand leading to another record year in 2022.”...The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($548,250 or less) decreased to 3.24 percent from 3.30 percent, with points remaining unchanged at 0.34 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value ratio (LTV) loans. The first graph shows the refinance index since 1990.With relatively low rates, the index remains somewhat elevated - but the recent bump in rates has slowed activity to the lowest level since January 2020.The second graph shows the MBA mortgage purchase index.
House Flipper Zillow Seeks to Dump 7,000 Houses to Big Investors after Reports it Overpaid: Buy High, Sell Low, Take “One-Time Noncash Charge?” - When real-estate-listing-site-turned-house-flipper Zillow announced on October 18 that it suddenly stopped buying houses, it blamed the labor and supply shortages “in the construction, renovation and closing spaces.” That turns out to have been a joke, it seems, as two things have emerged today:One, Zillow is now trying to dump about 7,000 houses, but not to individual homebuyers as originally planned as house flipper, which is obviously too hard and painful. Instead, it’s pitching these houses to institutional investors, trying to get $2.8 billion in total, according to sources cited by Bloomberg. Zillow is likely to sell the houses to a multitude of investors, rather than selling all of them in a single transaction, the sources said.I mean, how can a house flipper get stuck with 7,000 houses? I mean, buying houses is easy if price doesn’t matter. And the price didn’t matter for Zillow after it tweaked its pricing algo – the power of AI – to where it was the high bidder in red-hot markets that may have slowed down since then. That was easy. But selling them without losing your shirt is suddenly hard, it turns out.Two, it overpaid for many houses and is trying to sell at a loss. KeyBanc Capital Markets came out with an analysis of 650 homes owned by Zillow that are currently listed on the market, and found that 66% of them were listed below what Zillow had paid for them, with the average listing price being 4.5% below the purchase price.Even if it can sell those houses at 4.5% below the purchase price, there are still all kinds of costs involved in flipping a house, and so, even if it can sell at asking price, it would pocket some big losses.“Zillow may have leaned into home acquisition at the wrong time, and we believe earnings may be at risk due to its current home inventory ($1.17 billion at 2Q21),” the analysts said, cited by MarketWatch. Wait a minute. Zillow owned $1.17 billion in houses at the end of Q2, after having bought 3,805 houses during Q2, but now it’s suddenly trying to sell 7,000 houses for $ 2.8 billion?Didn’t it sell houses in Q3? Did it just buy houses and overpay so much that it couldn’t sell them without losing a ton of money, and it didn’t want to show those losses on its upcoming Q3 earnings report?Will it book a huge “one-time noncash charge” on those houses that it hopes Wall Street will ignore? With “one time” and “noncash” meaning that the noncash cash was blown weeks and months earlier, house by house, in thousands of one-time transactions?I cannot wait to see the Q3 earnings report.
Zillow Comes Unglued, Lost $1.4 Billion on Flipping Houses since 2019, Bails Out, Lays Off 25% of Staff, Stock Plunges Further -- Home flipper Zillow reported a nightmare today. In Q3, it bought 9,680 houses and sold only 3,032 of them, after having purchased 3,805 houses in Q2, and sold only 2,086 of them. In other words, it was very good at buying houses by overpaying for them, but now cannot sell them without losing bigly. Its inventory of unsold houses ballooned to $3.8 billion, up from $491 million in December 2020. It admitted it overpaid for those houses and blamed its AI-powered pricing genius. It outlined how much it expects to lose on those houses, threw in the towel on its entire house flipping business, and will lay off 25% of its staff.In its Q3 net loss of $328 million that it reported today, Zillow included $304 million in write-downs of houses that it had paid too much for in Q3. For Q4, it expects additional losses of $240 million to $265 million on the houses it bought since the end of Q3. It stopped making offers on October 18 but will close the deals it made until then.This confirms my expectations yesterday that Zillow would show a huge write-down when it reports its Q3 results, and would continue in 2021 its well-established and unrelenting series of annual losses.Its house flipping business – which Zillow calls “Zillow Offers” in public, and the “Homes” segment on its financial statement – showed losses right away in 2019, when it kicked off this scheme. Back then, I calculated that Zillow lost $109,000 per completed flip, all expenses included, and I pooh-poohed the scheme – “this is a horrendous business, I said,” because you cannot make money flipping houses by overpaying for them. You have to buy low. But you cannot buy low when you’re the whale in the market that is buying hundreds of houses willy-nilly in no time, and when Wall Street evaluates you on how many houses you bought instead of on how much money you made when you sold the houses. Since then, the losses from house-flipping piled up, now totaling $1.42 billion, just for the house flipping business, including the write-downs announced today for 2021:
- 2019: $312 million
- 2020: $320 million
- 2021: $789 million (9 months: $539 million + Q4 midpoint estimate: $250 million)
To lose $1.42 billion by flipping houses in the hottest, most inflated, most liquid housing market ever takes a real genius. The genius was of course the AI-powered well-oiled buying machine. It got to the point where everyone and their dog wanted to sell to Zillow. This AI-powered well-oiled buying machine – founded upon Zillow’s “inimitable living database of homes and superior data science and technology advantages” – was one of the three “competitive advantages” that Zillow showcased in its 2020 annual report. Today, that AI-powered well-oiled buying machine got taken out the back and shot. It was today, November 2, that Zillow’s board decided to kill the thing, Zillow said.
HVS: Q3 2021 Homeownership and Vacancy Rates -The Census Bureau released the Residential Vacancies and Homeownership report for Q2 2021. The results of this survey were significantly distorted by the pandemic in 2020. This report is frequently mentioned by analysts and the media to track household formation, the homeownership rate, and the homeowner and rental vacancy rates. This survey might show the trend, but I wouldn't rely on the absolute numbers. "National vacancy rates in the third quarter 2021 were 5.8 percent for rental housing and 0.9 percent for homeowner housing. The rental vacancy rate was 0.6 percentage points lower than the rate in the third quarter 2020 (6.4 percent) and 0.4 percentage points lower than the rate in the second quarter 2021 (6.2 percent). The homeowner vacancy rate of 0.86 percent was lower than the rate in the third quarter 2020 (0.95 percent) and virtually the same as the rate in the second quarter 2021 (0.86 percent). (Note: the 0.86 percent and the 0.95 percent each round to 0.9 percent in the tables below). The homeownership rate of 65.4 percent was 2.0 percentage points lower than the rate in the third quarter 2020 (67.4 percent) and virtually the same as the rate in the second quarter 2021 (65.4 percent). "
The Red dots are the decennial Census homeownership rates for April 1st 1990, 2000 and 2010. The Census Bureau will released data for 2020 soon. The HVS homeownership rate was unchanged at 65.4% in Q3, from 65.4% in Q2.The results starting in Q2 2020 were distorted by the pandemic. 
The HVS homeowner vacancy was unchanged at 0.9% in Q3.Once again - this probably shows the general trend, but I wouldn't rely on the absolute numbers.The rental vacancy rate decreased to 5.8% in Q3 from 6.2% in Q2. This fits with other data suggesting strong rental demand in Q3.The quarterly HVS is the most timely survey on households, but there are many questions about the accuracy of this survey.
Q3 2021 GDP Details on Residential and Commercial Real Estate - The BEA released the underlying details for the Q3 advance GDP report on Friday. The BEA reported that investment in non-residential structures increased at a 2.4% annual pace in Q3. Note that weakness in non-residential structures started in 2019, before the pandemic. Investment in petroleum and natural gas structures increased sharply in Q3 compared to Q2, and was up 67% year-over-year. The first graph shows investment in offices, malls and lodging as a percent of GDP. Investment in offices (blue) increased slightly in Q3, and was down 4.9% year-over-year. Investment in multimerchandise shopping structures (malls) peaked in 2007 and was down about 2% year-over-year in Q3 - and near a record low as a percent of GDP. The vacancy rate for malls is still very high, so investment will probably stay low for some time. Lodging investment decreased slightly in Q3 compared to Q2, and lodging investment was down 29% year-over-year. All three sectors - offices, malls, and hotels - are being hurt significantly by the pandemic. The second graph is for Residential investment components as a percent of GDP. According to the Bureau of Economic Analysis, RI includes new single family structures, multifamily structures, home improvement, Brokers’ commissions and other ownership transfer costs, and a few minor categories (dormitories, manufactured homes). Even though investment in single family structures has increased from the bottom, single family investment is just approaching normal levels as a percent of GDP. Investment in single family structures was $411 billion (SAAR) (about 1.8% of GDP), and up 38% year-over-year. Investment in multi-family structures decreased slightly in Q3. Investment in home improvement was at a $324 billion Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate (SAAR) in Q2 (about 1.4% of GDP). Home improvement spending has been strong during the pandemic. Note that Brokers' commissions (black) increased sharply last year as existing home sales increased in the second half of 2020, but was down in Q2 and Q3. Brokers' commissions were up 7% year-over-year in Q2.
Ag Land Purchases by Institutional Investors, Foreign Countries Raise Concerns -- Farmers aren't the only ones snapping up land in today's hot real estate market. Institutional investors and foreign countries alike increasingly see U.S. farmland as a sound investment. While foreign investors are reported to own less than 3% of America's food-producing soil, according to USDA statistics from 2019, concerns continue to mount about who is actually buying up acres during this most recent "land rush" across agriculture. Today, many states have rules placing some form of barrier to foreign or corporate ownership of farmland. Anecdotally, there's little evidence that limiting the buyer pool has limited sellers' financial gains. Iowa, for example, has historically protected ownership and control of its highly valued farmland. Current law in the state says a nonresident alien, foreign business or foreign government cannot acquire or purchase land in the state. Yet, to look at USDA data tracking Iowa's land values, it doesn't appear hefty price tags for the state's farm ground have been limited by the regulation. Between 2020 and 2021, USDA reports Iowa's increase in cropland values exceeded the national average of 7.8%, coming in at 8.9%. Jim Rothermich agrees there's been an increase in Iowa's land values, but he says it's a lot more than the USDA report indicates. The vice president at Iowa Appraisal and Research Corp. tracks all land auctions in the state. He reports that from January to the end of June 2021, land prices at auction were up an amazing 25%. "That is statewide, over 23,900 acres, with weighted CSR2 (Corn Suitability Rating 2) of 74.4," Rothermich explains. Scale on the index goes from least-productive soils for row crops at 5 to most productive at 100. The analyst says the 2020 land market was mostly flat until the end of October. Slow increases marked November and December. After that, Rothermich says "it exploded." He believes strong grain prices played a key role in the rally, as did better-than-expected 2020 yields for many producers in the state. "We have buyers in this market we've never had before," Rothermich adds. "People who have never owned land think it's a good investment to be in. And, while we'd seen an increase in our buyer pool, we never could get supply up until May 2021. After that, we started seeing more land coming onto the market. Since then, I'd say it's been a perfect storm of good crop prices, better-than-expected yields and government payments. The low interest rates haven't hurt either." Rothermich categorizes buyers as he reviews auction results. As for who's buying in today's hot market, he says it's about 50/50 farmer to investor. Cash is king right now, he adds. "Realtors tell me they are seeing a lot of cash sales. There is cash in the countryside waiting to buy a farm. I don't see that changing as we look into 2022. Interest rate increases may temper price increases, but when you are looking at a cash market, that becomes less of a factor. And that's what we are seeing in Iowa."
The Rapid Increase in Rents Continues - Today, in the Real Estate Newsletter: The Rapid Increase in Rents Continues -- Earlier I wrote: The Rapid Increase in Rents, What is happening? Why? And what will happen and Measuring Rents.Today, I’m going to update some of the data that shows rents are accelerating.First, here is a graph of several measures of rent since 2000: OER, Rent of shelter, Rent of primary residence, Zillow Observed Rent Index (ZORI), andApartmentList.com. (all set to 100 in January 2017)Note: For a discussion on how OER, and Rent of primary residence are measured, see from the BLS: How the CPI measures price change of Owners’ equivalent rent of primary residence (OER) and Rent of primary residence (Rent) OER, Rent of shelter, and rent of primary residence have mostly moved together. The Zillow index started in 2014, and the ApartmentList index started in 2017. Here is a graph of the year-over-year (YoY) change for these measures since January 2015. All of these measures are through Sept 2021.The Zillow measure is up 9.2% YoY in September, up from 8.4% YoY in August. And the ApartmentList measure is up 15.1% as of September, up from 12.5% in August. Both the Zillow measure (a repeat rent index), and ApartmentList are showing a sharp increase in rents. From Zillow:“ZORI is a repeat-rent index that is weighted to the rental housing stock to ensure representativeness across the entire market, not just those homes currently listed for-rent.”And from ApartmentList:At Apartment List, we estimate the median contract rent across new leases signed in a given market and month. To capture how rents change in a market over time, we estimate the expected price change that a rental unit should experience if it were to be leased today.Both of these measures reflect new leases, whereas most rental units don’t turnover every year (as captured by the BLS measures). Adam Ozimek, Chief Economist at@Upwork explained this succinctly: BLS asks every renter in the apartment: how much are you paying this month? Then measures the change every month. Zillow looks at the change in the units that are currently up for rent. But this sharp increase in new leases should spill over into the consumer price index over the next year (as discussed in earlier article). CoreLogic also tracks rents for single family homes: Single-Family Rent Growth Approaches Double-Digits U.S. single-family rent growth increased 9.3% in August 2021, the fastest year-over-year increase in over 16 years[1], according to the CoreLogic Single-Family Rent Index (SFRI). The index measures rent changes among single-family rental homes, including condominiums, using a repeat-rent analysis to measure the same rental properties over time. The August 2021 increase was more than four times the August 2020 increase, and while the index growth slowed last summer, rent growth is running well above pre-pandemic levels when compared with 2019.
Construction Spending Decreased in September --From the Census Bureau reported that overall construction spending was "virtually unchanged": Construction spending during September 2021 was estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $1,573.6 billion, 0.5 percent below the revised August estimate of $1,582.0 billion. The September figure is 7.8 percent above the September 2020 estimate of $1,459.3 billion.Both private and public spending decreased:Spending on private construction was at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $1,229.9 billion,0.5 percent below the revised August estimate of $1,236.1 billion. ...In September, the estimated seasonally adjusted annual rate of public construction spending was $343.7 billion, 0.7 percent below the revised August estimate of $345.9 billion.This graph shows private residential and nonresidential construction spending, and public spending, since 1993. Note: nominal dollars, not inflation adjusted.Residential spending is 14% above the bubble peak (in nominal terms - not adjusted for inflation). Non-residential spending is 10% above the bubble era peak in January 2008 (nominal dollars), but has been weak recently.Public construction spending is 6% above the peak in March 2009, but weak recently.The second graph shows the year-over-year change in construction spending.On a year-over-year basis, private residential construction spending is up 19.3%. Non-residential spending is down 0.5% year-over-year. Public spending is down 2.4% year-over-year.Construction was considered an essential service during the early months of the pandemic in most areas, and did not decline sharply like many other sectors. However, some sectors of non-residential have been under pressure. For example, lodging is down 32.8% YoY, and office down 2.9% YoY. This was below consensus expectations of a 0.4% increase in spending, and construction spending for the previous two months was revised down.
Update: Framing Lumber Prices Up Year-over-year - Here is another monthly update on framing lumber prices. This graph shows CME random length framing futures through November 2nd. Lumber was at $557 per 1000 board feet this morning. This is down from a peak of $1,733, and up from $525 a year ago. Lumber prices are up 6% year-over-year. There were supply constraints over the last year, for example, sawmills cut production and inventory at the beginning of the pandemic, and the West Coast fires in 2020 damaged privately-owned timberland (and maybe again in 2021). The supply constraints have eased somewhat.And there was a huge surge in demand for lumber (demand remains strong).
ISM® Manufacturing index decreased to 60.8% in October -- The ISM manufacturing index indicated expansion in September. The PMI® was at 60.8% in October, down from 61.1% in September. The employment index was at 52.0%, up from 50.2% last month, and the new orders index was at 59.8%, down from 66.7%. From ISM: Manufacturing PMI® at 61.1% October 2021 Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business®: “The October Manufacturing PMI® registered 60.8 percent, a decrease of 0.3 percentage point from the September reading of 61.1 percent. This figure indicates expansion in the overall economy for the 17th month in a row after a contraction in April 2020. The New Orders Index registered 59.8 percent, down 6.9 percentage points compared to the September reading of 66.7 percent. The Production Index registered 59.3 percent, a decrease of 0.1 percentage point compared to the September reading of 59.4 percent. The Prices Index registered 85.7 percent, up 4.5 percentage points compared to the September figure of 81.2 percent. The Backlog of Orders Index registered 63.6 percent, 1.2 percentage points lower than the September reading of 64.8 percent. The Employment Index registered 52 percent, 1.8 percentage points higher compared to the September reading of 50.2 percent. The Supplier Deliveries Index registered 75.6 percent, up 2.2 percentage points from the September figure of 73.4 percent. The Inventories Index registered 57 percent, 1.4 percentage points higher than the September reading of 55.6 percent. The New Export Orders Index registered 54.6 percent, an increase of 1.2 percentage points compared to the September reading of 53.4 percent. The Imports Index registered 49.1 percent, a 5.8-percentage point decrease from the September reading of 54.9 percent.” This was at expectations, and this suggests manufacturing expanded at a slightly slower pace in October than in September.
Walmart is hiring 'supply chain associates' $20.37 per hour on average - Walmart is holding a supply-chain national hiring event later this week. The average wage for the retail giant's supply chain associates is $20.37 per hour. The hiring event will take place on Wednesday and Thursday, November 3-4, in numerous states and locations. Job openings include equipment operators, repair technicians, freight handlers and order filler/lift drivers just to name a few. Walmart is beefing up its personnel amid a supply chain crunch felt across nearly every industry, coupled with a labor shortage squeeze. In October, Walmart said it was navigating the supply chain ahead of the busy holiday season by sourcing holiday merchandise earlier than usual, chartering its own ships, and diverting shipments through less congested ports. In September the company announced it was hiring 20,000 permanent supply-chain associates to meet growth demands. Competitors Target (TGT) and Amazon (AMZN) are also looking to lure talent heading into the holidays. Amazon recently announced plans to hire 150,000 seasonal employees. The average salary for those seasonal jobs start at $18 per hour along with sign-on bonuses up to $3,000. High-end retailer Nordstrom (JWN) announced plans to hire 28,000 seasonal and regular employees, offering extra incentives for those working in supply chain and fulfillment centers.
Farm Groups Raise Concerns Over Phosphate Fertilizer Tariffs Creating 'Near-Monopoly' -- Five agricultural groups have filed a court brief asking the U.S. Court of International Trade to overturn tariffs imposed on phosphate fertilizers from Morocco, arguing the tariffs have given Mosaic Co. "near-monopoly" status when it comes to phosphate fertilizer. The commodity groups are joining an appeal against a decision by the International Trade Commission (ITC) last March to impose 19% tariffs on phosphate fertilizers from Morocco. The ruling imposed tariffs for five years.The ITC imposed the tariffs on Moroccan phosphate products after a petition filed by Mosaic Co. led to the tariff recommendation from the U.S. Department of Commerce. The ITC imposed the tariffs along with tariffs on Russian phosphate fertilizer. The ITC ruled that the U.S. fertilizer industry was harmed by subsidies that Morocco and Russia provided their industries.In their brief, the farm groups state the ITC incorrectly blamed a supply imbalance in 2019 on imports. The commission didn't take into account U.S. fertilizer producers idling plants while increasing exports. The commodity groups pointed to Mosaic and Nutrien announcing separately they would idle and close plants, taking roughly 2.1 million short tons of North American production offline. A series of wet weather events in 2018 and 2019 reduced planted acres as well, further changing demand."Domestic (fertilizer) producers were well aware of these market dynamics and aware that their decision to reduce domestic production dictated an increase in import supply," the commodity groups stated in their brief.The commodity groups also stated the ITC was wrong to rule that imports were unnecessary to meet farmer needs in 2019.The commodity groups noted, "As a result, critical sources of imported supply have been shut out of the U.S. market, and the costs of fertilizers have increased for farmers."
Chemical and Fertilizer Crunch Overshadow an Above-Average Harvest for Farmers - To his relief, west-central Minnesota farmer Justin Honebrink is harvesting unexpectedly average crops, after August rains breathed life back into his drought-stressed corn and soybeans. But instead of riding that high, Honebrink -- like many farmers this fall -- is rushing to lock in fertilizer months ahead of usual and eyeing chemical shortages and costs with growing anxiety. "Chemical costs are starting to scare me," he said. "I don't normally look into chemicals until closer to spring, so I am just not ready right now to get things taken care of." The rapid surge in fertilizer prices and growing shortages of key active ingredients like glyphosate and glufosinate are overshadowing an above-average harvest for many growers this year, DTN Farm Advisers told DTN. The group, which updates DTN on their farm and ranch operations by email monthly, said the situation was taking a toll on their balance sheets and peace of mind. It's hard to enjoy the fruits of one crop, after all, while watching the costs of the next one soar. "These (fertilizer) prices are the highest I have ever seen in my 10 years of doing this job," said northwest Iowa farmer Jay Magnussen, who works at a local co-op and is seeing short supplies of DAP and potash, as well as anhydrous ammonia (NH3). "Going forward, the main concern I see with next year's crop is chemical availability and price -- I have seen price increases every week, if not every day," he added.Ohio farmers Genny Haun and Keith Peters are especially relieved to see excellent corn and soybean crops rolling in, despite a hot and dry summer. Southeastern Michigan farmer Raymond Simpkins was similarly pleased to see some corn test weights climbing to 62 lbs., and northeastern Colorado farmer Marc Arnusch was marveling at excellent corn test weights "driving better-than-expected yields" too.In northeastern Nebraska, Kenny Reinke winced while harvesting soybeans at 8% moisture, but he is seeing some fields make farm history, and some corn yields are also "possibly bumping up against record territory," he noted. Fellow eastern Nebraskan Ashley Andersen said it was a relief to have a new bin up and running last week, as they will need the storage for this year's big harvest. "The guys were trying to calculate an estimate of how many extra loads will have to go to town that won't fit," she said. "So that's always a good problem to have!" Likewise, Scott Wallis blew past his farm's record yield average by 17 bushels per acre (bpa) this year, and the soybean record inched up by 1 to 2 bpa, in southwest Indiana. Iowa's Magnussen said August rains amazingly pushed corn yields in his droughty area to a healthy 250 bpa, with soybeans coming in at 70 bpa or more. And while Reid Thompson was a little underwhelmed by some corn yields in east-central Illinois, he did have a third of his farms set records, and soybeans are looking above-average, too.
Well, Its About to Become Worse - I was recently sitting on a conference call with a fertilizer analyst and a bunch of monocrop growers, generally feeling out of place with my few dozen pounds of peppers, cucumbers and radishes sitting in cold storage while they go over current state of affairs of tons of this and that. We had a good year collectively as a country and a ag sector. We’re almost at $6 a bushel for corn and if that hits, one mono guy owes me a case of beer. The inflation piece was the inflection point in the conversation. Equipment and land buys were at all time highs this year in both rate and price, and almost all financed. The inflation piece when financed is not transitory. Those excess prices sustain in each biting month in which they are due over the next 14 months to 5 years, or even longer if it was a land loan. This then got wrapped into the conversation of now that debt loads have been pushed up. With China curbing its exports of fertilizers, China’s Curbs on Fertilizer Exports to Worsen Global Price Shock – Bloomberg and Russia following suit, the net effect on input prices has risen from $160-$180 a ton on a normal year to close to $1,000 per ton for next year just for urea (nitrogen from the big three NPK).Farmers start deciding what to plant now, ahead of the spring crop year and start buying the things they will need now. As input costs and future contracts for those inouts have only gotten worse, the futures contracts for the produce commodities haven’t really changed much. So, commodities traders are waiting to see what the farmers do.Farmers are planning to produce things that don’t need a lot of inputs. Corn relies a lot on nitrogen and without adequate supply, the harvest can be stalled by two weeks. So that’s out. They will switch to milo, or if cotton is looking like a good price, go that direct. Problem is, when everyone runs to one end of the boat, it risks tipping over. Sure, some guys will grow corn and silage and all the things that feed into the food supply, but with less supply means higher prices. The farmers will need that all around, and will plant less acres to achieve that. Not in a collusion sense, more of a cost control or not plant at all because they can’t get fertilizers to begin with. Crop insurance can only do so much.
Why the US Supply Chain Crisis Is Intractable and Will Get Worse - Yves Smith - Readers flagged a must read post by Ryan Johnson, I’m A Twenty Year Truck Driver, I Will Tell You Why America’s “Shipping Crisis” Will Not End. It makes a detailed, cogent case as to why the America’s ports are a mess and why there is no simple and even not so simple way out. I’ll argue that there are some steps that could theoretically be taken to get a little more flow through the stuck ports, but even those moves would be seen as too interventionist despite the high and rising cost of standing pat. They are guaranteed not to do enough even if they understood how the moving parts interconnect. Worsening supply shortfalls, particularly of drugs and medical staples, will make the bad press of the Iran hostage crisis look tame. Johnson describes two shortages: driver and equipment. From the driver standpoint, it sounds as if a crisis was bound to happen at some point, that there was a chronic shortfall of drivers that has tipped into a crisis. As he describes it, many trucking companies won’t even entertain port business because even an unusually speedy trip in and out of a port is still very time consuming. Drivers have to queue three times: at the entrance, for the container pickup, and the exit. These lines are typically bad because ports can’t be bothered to have enough staff. Bad and now absolutely Gawd-awful waits results in drivers quitting or at least not signing up for port duty because most are paid by job, not by the hour (the exception are drivers who are Teamsters). This is their deal: Most port drivers are ‘independent contractors’, leased onto a carrier who is paying them by the load. Whether their load takes two hours, fourteen hours, or three days to complete, they get paid the same, and they have to pay 90% of their truck operating expenses (the carrier might pay the other 10%, but usually less.) The rates paid to non-union drivers for shipping container transport are usually extremely low. In a majority of cases, these drivers don’t come close to my union wages. They pay for all their own repairs and fuel, and all truck related expenses. I honestly don’t understand how many of them can even afford to show up for work. There’s no guarantee of ANY wage (not even minimum wage), and in many cases, these drivers make far below minimum wage. In some cases they work 70 hour weeks and still end up owing money to their carrier.So when the coastal ports started getting clogged up last spring due to the impacts of COVID on business everywhere, drivers started refusing to show up. Congestion got so bad that instead of being able to do three loads a day, they could only do one. They took a 2/3 pay cut and most of these drivers were working 12 hours a day or more. While carriers were charging increased pandemic shipping rates, none of those rate increases went to the driver wages. Many drivers simply quit. However, while the pickup rate for containers severely decreased, they were still being offloaded from the boats.I am sure there are other equipment shortages, but the one Johnson focuses on is a dearth of chassis, as in the trailer that goes behind the cab. The container companies are supposed to supply the chassis (only a minority of trucking companies own their chassis), but in some over-my-pay-grade process, the containers get matched up to the chassis in port (Lambert has an article in Water Cooler than indicated that unlike rail cars, where railroads pull railcars of other railroads and settle up later, it seems as if these chassis are not fungible. If that’s the case, the need to get a chassis that is owned by or can be charged to the right container company would introduce another big layer of complexity.
58,900 Containers Are Now Paying A Rising $100 Penalty In LA, Long Beach -The penalties on 58,900 containers at the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach are officially racking up charges. These containers were part of the 60,000 containers the ports alerted the ocean carriers last Monday to move or face a daily $100 penalty per container, increasing in $100 increments per day.American Shipper reached out to both ports for updates on the removal of the “lingering” containers.According to Port of Los Angeles Executive Director Gene Seroka, there are a total of 84,000 total imports on docks waiting to be transported, a total that is 3,000 higher than a week ago. Of those 84,000, a whopping 40,000 of those containers have been at the Port of LA for nine-plus days, which is considered lingering. Containers are considered long-dwelling if the boxes are waiting over nine days for truck, six days for rail.The Port of Long Beach saw 10% of its 27,000 lingering containers move out since last Wednesday. The port has approximately 18,900 containers being charged penalties.“This is a sign that the surcharge is having its intended effect, but clearly there is more work to do,” said Noel Hacegaba, COO of the Port of Long Beach.“The ocean carriers are stepping up and coordinating with the shippers, terminals, railroads and motor carriers to look for the fastest way to push inbound containers out of the terminals.”The 58,900 late containers at these ports represent a much-needed economic injection for the U.S. economy — a handsome $2,585,651,100 in trade, based on a per-import twenty-foot equivalent unit value of $43,899 (the average of containerized import TEUs at the Port of Los Angeles in 2020).The Harbor Trucking Association tells American shipper it continues to face the same issues with the terminals.“Our hurdle has been and continues to be empty container returns,” said Matt Schrap, CEO of the Harbor Trucking Association.“While there has been movement on a limited number of sweeper vessels beginning to call to the port complex, we need consistent and continuous empty sweeper dispatch in order to free up space on dock and in our yards.”Duration of trucks at the terminals at the Port of LA and Long Beach show slow-moving trade this past Saturday.
Lack Of Drivers Hamstringing Supply Chain Recovery -The trucking industry is desperate to get drivers into seats at a time when the supply chain needs them most, but a variety of factors is stalling the industry’s ability to gain traction. Chief among those factors is the Drug and Alcohol Clearinghouse. Since January 2020 when the Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration began recording substance abuse violations in the clearinghouse database, over 91,000 drivers have been taken off the road for testing positive or refusing to take a test. That number is expected to hit 100,000 before the end of the year.While this is considered proof that the clearinghouse is doing its job — keeping unsafe drivers off the road — it is also increasing pressure on carriers trying to deal with unprecedented freight demand.“We’ve lost, at least temporarily, 44,000 drivers so far in 2021 to drug or alcohol violations, which really stings when freight is sitting at the dock waiting to be picked up,” P. Sean Garney, the Scopelitis Transportation Consulting co-director, told FreightWaves. “With only 21% of drivers disqualified from driving a [commercial motor vehicle] taking the steps necessary to get back behind the wheel, the industry needs to continue to find creative ways to fill seats.” Some contend that the inability of more would-be and current drivers to pass a drug test is exacerbated by an increasing number of states legalizing marijuana. The clearinghouse has consistently revealed marijuana to be the top substance identified in positive drug tests (see chart).Karen Goodpaster, manager at St. Louis-based Apollo Express, said that to the extent the side effects of the clearinghouse could potentially prolong the recovery of the supply chain crisis, “that would be a negative,” she told FreightWaves. “But there’s a lot of other things that are having a negative effect as well. Parts to fix trucks are in short supply, which means trucks have to be parked.” She also said drivers are moving from over-the-road to local delivery due to changing purchasing patterns by shippers and consumers.“But I don’t want anyone doing drugs in my trucks. If [the clearinghouse] keeps one driver off the road and from killing a family, that’s a positive.”
October Vehicles Sales Increased to 13.0 Million SAAR -- Wards Auto released their estimate of light vehicle sales for October. Wards Auto estimates sales of 12.99 million SAAR in October 2021 (Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate), up 6.8% from the September sales rate, and down 20.8% from October 2020. This was well above the consensus estimate of 12.4 million SAAR. This graph shows light vehicle sales since 2006 from the BEA (blue) and Wards Auto's estimate for October (red).The impact of COVID-19 was significant, and April 2020 was the worst month.After April 2020, sales increased, and were close to sales in 2019 (the year before the pandemic). However, sales decreased earlier this year due to supply issues. It appears the "supply chain bottom" was in September.
Average New-Vehicle Price Spikes 19% in 10 Months, to $44,000. Unit Sales Tick up, But Still Down 34% from March -by Wolf Richter - Hammered by the worst inventory shortages in memory, new car and truck sales had plunged five months in a row. But in October, sales ticked up to 1.05 million vehicles, from 1.01 million vehicles in September, which had been the worst September since the sales collapse in 2010. This left October’s new vehicle sales down 34% from 1.6 million vehicles in March when there were still vehicles on dealer lots to sell, and down 22% from October 2019, according to data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Sales of “cars” (sedans and muscle cars such as the Mustang and Corvette) dropped further to 207,100 units, the lowest in many decades except for the lockdown freeze in April 2020. Ford, GM, and FCA (owned by Stellantis) have exited the sedan market, leaving it to foreign automakers and Tesla. Sales of “trucks” – pickup trucks, SUVs, car-like compact SUVs built on what is essentially a car chassis, and vans – rose to 839,200 vehicles. Vehicle sales are seasonal, and the low points in the chart are Januarys except during the lockdown last year and the low points this year when dealers ran out of inventory: The Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate (SAAR) of sales – which adjusts for the number of selling days per month and for seasonal factors – ticked up to an annual rate of 13.0 million vehicles, down 21% from October 2020, and down 22% from October 2019. The plunge in sales is due to a supply shock triggered largely by the global semiconductor shortages that has hit some automakers much harder (for example Ford, GM, Stellantis) than others (for example, Toyota, Tesla, BMW), and dealers have essentially run out of popular models. As a result, automakers have been prioritizing their highest-priced models and trim packages to maximize their revenues, given the plunge in unit sales. And there are enough consumers with big gains in stocks, real estate, and cryptos, and from their own businesses, fat compensation packages, the proceeds of the forgivable PPP loans, and whatnot, that these high-priced units flew off the lot. Automakers have slashed their incentive spending to record lows. In terms of dollars, they slashed incentive spending to $1,628 per vehicle on average, according to estimates by J.D. Power. This is down from over $4,000 per vehicle in October 2019, and brought incentive spending down to 3.7% of MSRP, the lowest on record. Every dollar cut from incentive spending flows to the bottom line. The prioritization of high-priced models and the cut in incentive spending caused the Average Transaction Price (ATP) to spike to a new record in October of about $44,000, according to J.D. Power, up 19% in the nine months since December 2020 and up by 26% from December 2019: This explosion of the Average Transaction Price saw to it that, despite the plunge in sales, consumers (excludes fleet sales) spent $41.5 billion on new vehicles, the second-highest for any October, according to J.D. Power estimates. Automakers and dealers are making enormous amounts of gross profits per vehicle sold, thanks to the simple but novel fact that Americans don’t care anymore how much they spend on a new vehicle and how much over sticker they’re paying – those Americans that are still buying new vehicles. Dealers made on average $5,129 per unit in gross profit, including from finance and insurance (F&I) sales, in October, a massive record, and up by 75% from October 2020, according to J.D. Power. And they’re getting away with it because consumer behavior has undergone a revolution – going from price-conscious to price-doesn’t-matter within the course of 18 months.
October vehicle sales give sharply mixed message about the economy going forward - Vehicle sales used to be reported monthly by all manufacturers. Then, one by one, they switched to reporting only once a quarter, which makes their data much less interesting, since it is largely 90 days old by the time it is available. Not terribly helpful for looking ahead. But the BEA also reports vehicle sales monthly, although for reasons unknown FRED does not post them until 4 weeks later. Which is a too-lengthy introduction to saying that the BEA has reported October results, although the FRED graphs below only show through September. In October both light vehicle and heavy duty truck sales were up vs. September, the former to 13.0 million units annualized, and the latter to 0.445 million units annualized. The below graph subtracts that amount from each so that it shows as zero (and truck sales are multiplied x30 for scale): There have been significant declines in both car and truck sales this year. Light vehicle sales peaked at 18.3 million annualized in April, and truck sales at 0.515 million annualized in March. The reading is mixed. In the past, heavy truck sales have been a much earlier and more reliable leading indicator for a recession. This year they have not declined by nearly so much as prior to other recessions. Meanwhile light vehicle sales, which are typically very noisy, have declined by much more than is usually the case before a recession. We know that much of this decline is due to the inability of manufacturers to get all the parts they require. This in turn has driven up prices sharply, which has caused a decline in sales as well. I read this as showing that there is little economic stress on the producer side of the economy (that purchases heavy trucks); but there will be ramifications on vehicle manufacturers that will ripple through the economy. Overall I do not read this as recessionary - at least not at this point. As with last month, this Friday’s jobs report should be watched for both the number of jobs and hours added or lost in the manufacturing sector.
Vehicle Sales, Sales Mix and Heavy Trucks --The BEA released their estimate of light vehicle sales for October today. The BEA estimates sales of 12.99 million SAAR in October 2021 (Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate), up 6.3% from the September sales rate, and down 20.8% from October 2020. This was well above the consensus estimate of 12.4 million SAAR. This graph shows light vehicle sales since 1967 from the BEA. The dashed line is sales for the current month.The impact of COVID-19 was significant, and April 2020 was the worst month.After April 2020, sales increased, and were close to sales in 2019 (the year before the pandemic). However, sales decreased earlier this year due to supply issues. It appears the "supply chain bottom" was in September.So far - through October - sales are up 9.2% in 2021 compared to 2020.This second graph shows the percent of light vehicle sales between passenger cars and trucks / SUVs through October 2021.Over time the mix has changed more and more towards light trucks and SUVs.Only when oil prices are high, does the trend slow or reverse.The percent of light trucks and SUVs was at 80.1% in October 2021 - an all time high.The third graph shows heavy truck sales since 1967 using data from the BEA. The dashed line is the October 2021 seasonally adjusted annual sales rate (SAAR).Heavy truck sales really collapsed during the great recession, falling to a low of 180 thousand SAAR in May 2009. Then heavy truck sales increased to a new all time high of 563 thousand SAAR in September 2019. Note: "Heavy trucks - trucks more than 14,000 pounds gross vehicle weight." Heavy truck sales really declined at the beginning of the pandemic, falling to a low of 299 thousand SAAR in May 2020. Heavy truck sales were at 445 thousand SAAR in October, up from 404 thousand SAAR in September, but down 1% from 450 thousand SAAR in October 2020.
Trade Deficit Increased to $80.9 Billion in September -- From the Department of Commerce reported: The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis announced today that the goods and services deficit was $80.9 billion in September, up $8.1 billion from $72.8 billion in August, revised.September exports were $207.6 billion, $6.4 billion less than August exports. September imports were $288.5 billion, $1.7 billion more than August imports.Exports decreased and imports increased in September.Exports are up 17% compared to September 2020; imports are up 20% compared to September 2020. Both imports and exports decreased sharply due to COVID-19, and have now bounced back (imports more than exports), The second graph shows the U.S. trade deficit, with and without petroleum.The blue line is the total deficit, and the black line is the petroleum deficit, and the red line is the trade deficit ex-petroleum products. Note that net, imports and exports of petroleum products are close to zero. The trade deficit with China increased to $36.5 billion in September, from $29.7 billion in September 2020.
Manufacturing remained strong in October, while construction spending declined in September (but not yet at recessionary levels) -- As usual, we started out the month with the forward-looking ISM manufacturing report for October, as well as construction spending for September. Let’s take the ISM report first, since it is an important short leading indicator for the production sector. Here the total index declined slightly - mere -03 - to 60.8, and the more leading new orders subindex declined sharply - by -6.9 to 59.8: Since the break even point between increasing and decreasing numbers of respondents, both of October’s numbers in fact show strong expansion - in the case of new orders, simply not nearly so strong as in most of the last 12 months. In short, still quite positive. Turning to construction, in nominal terms overall spending including all types of construction declined -0.5%, while spending on the leading residential sector declined -0.4%, but still at levels very close to their all-time highs: Adjusting for price changes in construction materials, which jumped by 0.7% in September, “real” construction spending declined -1.3%m/m, and “real” residential construction spending declined -1.1%. In absolute terms, “real” construction spending has declined sharply earlier this year, although there has been relative stabilization in the last few months: “Real” total construction spending has now declined -18.7% since its post-recession peak in November 2020, while “real” residential construction spending has declined -14.8% since its post-recession peak in January of this year. The above shows that, while total construction spending has declined by more than it had before the Great Recession, the decline in residential construction spending, while substantial, is nowhere near the big decline it suffered before the end of 2007 in this series that only dates from 2002. This gives us essentially the same message that we got from single family housing permits several weeks ago: there has been a big decline in this long leading sector, but not yet what would typically precede a recession.
September Markit Manufacturing: "Output growth hampered" -- The October US Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index conducted by Markit came in at 58.4, down 2.3 from the final September figure. Markit's Manufacturing PMI is a diffusion index: A reading above 50 indicates expansion in the sector; below 50 indicates contraction. The October US Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index conducted by Markit came in at 58.4, down 2.3 from the final September figure. Here is an excerpt from IHS Markit in their latest press release:“October saw US manufacturers report yet another near-record lengthening of supply chains, with shortages of components constraining production growth to the lowest since July of last year. Around half of all companies reporting lower production in October attributed the decline to a lack of supplies. However, a further one-in-ten cited a lack of labor, and one-in-four reported that demand had fallen, often as a result of customers either lacking other inputs or pushing back on higher prices.“Although production growth has now slipped below the pre-pandemic long-run average due to the supply and labor constraints, demand growth – as measured by new order inflows – remains well above trend despite easing in October, hence producers saw another steep rise in backlogs of uncompleted work. This shortfall of production relative to demand was the principal driving force behind a survey record rise in manufacturers’ selling prices, suggesting that inflationary pressures continue to build and look unlikely to abate to any significant degree any time soon. [Press Release] Here is a snapshot of the series since mid-2012. Here is an overlay with the equivalent PMI survey conducted by the Institute for Supply Management (see our full article on this series here).
The Chilling Things US Manufacturers Said about the Everything Shortage, Demand, Prices, and Supply Chain Chaos by Wolf Richter --- Manufacturers struggled to ramp up production to meet rising demand, hampered by material and component shortages, labor shortages, difficulties in keeping employees because they’re going after better opportunities, long lead times, shipping delays, port congestion in the US and China, rolling blackouts in China, and transportation chaos. Getting goods out of Asia is particularly tough. They’re having to pay more for everything, and they’re passing on those cost increases via record price increases, and they’re not seeing any letup of those increases in costs and prices.That’s about the summary of what executives of US-based manufacturer said in the two manufacturing Purchasing Managers Indices (PMIs) released today, the “IHS Markit U.S. Manufacturing PMI,” and the “Manufacturing ISM Report On Business.”According to the IHS Markit U.S. Manufacturing PMI:On one hand, there was a “steep rise in new business at manufacturing firms” and a “historically elevated” expansion in new orders – though that growth was slower than the records of the prior 10 months – according to theIHS Markit PMI.On the other hand, there were “capacity constraints,” including material shortages, labor shortages, lead times that were “among the most marked on record,” “too extensive” delivery times, “a lack of input availability,” and “a severe deterioration in vendor performance.”So, unable to meet demand, production increased but at the slowest rate of increase in 10 months. And backlogs of work rose “at one of the sharpest paces on record as firms grappled with pressure on capacity..”The Manufacturing ISM Report On Business:“October saw US manufacturers report yet another near-record lengthening of supply chains, with shortages of components constraining production growth to the lowest since July of last year,” according to the Manufacturing ISM Report On Business.“Supply and labor constraints” pushed the growth of production “below the pre-pandemic long-run average.”Among the companies that reported lower production in October – note the still feeble pushback against higher prices in the last item:
- Around 50% cited “a lack of supplies.”
- Around 10% cited “a lack of labor.”
- Around 25% “reported that demand had fallen, often as a result of customers either lacking other inputs or pushing back on higher prices.”
But demand growth “remains well above trend despite easing in October, hence producers saw another steep rise in backlogs of uncompleted work.”The New Orders Index grew, “supported by continued expansion” of New Export Orders, while Customers’ Inventories Index remained “at very low levels,” and the Backlog of Orders Index stayed “at a very high level.” Manufacturers faced “an unprecedented number of hurdles to meet increasing demand.”“Congestion at ports in China and the U.S. continues to be a headwind, as transportation networks remain stressed,” the report said.“All segments of the manufacturing economy are impacted by record-long raw materials lead times, continued shortages of critical materials, rising commodities prices and difficulties in transporting products.”Meeting demand is also hampered by “hiring difficulties and a clear cycle of labor turnover: As workers opt for more attractive job opportunities, panelists’ companies and their suppliers struggle to maintain employment levels.”“Worker absenteeism, short-term shutdowns due to parts shortages, difficulties in filling open positions, and overseas supply chain problems” continued hamper manufacturing growth potential. “The Prices Index expanded for the 17th consecutive month, at a faster rate in October, indicating continued supplier pricing power and scarcity of supply chain goods.
Over 10K John Deere Workers Reject Latest Offer As Strike Extends Into Third Week -Over 10,000 striking John Deere workers across 12 facilities have rejected a contract offer which would have included an immediate 10% pay raise and $8,500 ratification bonus per worker, according to AP. John Deere employees picket outside John Deere Davenport Works Thursday, Oct. 14, 2021, in Davenport, Iowa. (Meg McLaughlin/Quad City Times via AP) The rejected raises were twice as much as an earlier offer which was declined by United Auto Workers union members last month - sending the strike, which began Oct. 14, into its third week. "Our members at John Deere strike for the ability to earn a decent living, retire with dignity and establish fair work rules," Chuck Browning, tthe director of United Automobile Workers (UAW) union's agricultural department, said in astatement when the strike began, adding "We stay committed to bargaining until our members' goals are achieved."According to the UAW, the new offer was rejected by 55% to 45%, a slimmer margin than the October vote.. "The strike against John Deere & Company will continue as we discuss next steps with the company," the union said. Deere Chief Administration Officer, Mark Howze, pitched the latest offer as a $3.5 billion investment in John Deere employees - and therefore, their communities "to significantly enhance wages and benefits that were already the best and most comprehensive in our industries." The rejected agreement would have included a 10% pay raise this year, and 5% increases in the third and fifth years of the deal. In the second, fourth and sixth years, employees would have received lump sum payments equal to 3% of their annual pay, as well as a ratification bonus of $8,500. "Even though it would have created greater competitive challenges within our industries, we had faith in our employees’ ability to sharpen our competitive edge," wrote Howze.
Deere Union Members Reject Second Management Offer; Key Demands Include Greater Workplace Say by Yves Smith - Deere workers are standing firm in their demands not just for better pay, but also for improved workplace conditions. Deere union members in 12 plants voted down management’s second offer; employees in two other plants under a different contract agreed to the same terms that the bulk of Deere workers rejected, 55% to 45%. From the Wall Street Journal:The proposal for a new six-year contract…would have given more than 10,000 Deere workers on strike an immediate 10% pay raise and an $8,500 bonus for each worker if the deal had been ratified Tuesday. The company also offered 5% raises in 2023 and 2025. For the other three years of the contract, Deere employees would receive lump-sum bonuses amounting to 3% of their pay…Deere also agreed to provide lump-sum bonuses to employees’ pensions and backed off an earlier attempt to enroll future employees in a 401(k)-style pension program. In the future, new Deere hires would have had a choice of enrolling in the company’s traditional pension program for hourly workers that guarantees income levels or the 401(k).The fact that the union rejected a deal with what on the surface are big increases points to how much simmering resentment Deere has generated over now decades via too clever “heads I win, tails you lose” incentive pay schemes and shoddy management treatment of employees, contrasted with Deere’s skyrocketing profits and executive pay. It can’t have been lost on line workers that Deere’s profits last year equalled, per employee, their total wage compensation. Profits absent a more equitable deal with labor should be even higher. It’s obvious that Deere can pay more but chose not to. Before the strike, the Guardian, in a story Lambert highlighted, pointed to the long history of Deere workers seeing how management shaved their pay to pad their and shareholder wallets:David Schmelzer, a quality control inspector at John Deere in Milan, Illinois for 24 years and former chairman of UAW Local 79, said that in 1997 workers took several concessions from John Deere in contract negotiations at the time, which included creating a two-tier system of employees, with workers hired after 1997 receiving fewer benefits.“We sacrificed, and we want that back now,” said Schmelzer. During the pandemic, Schmelzer said workers have been forced to work overtime consistently, with 10- to 12-hour days through the week and Saturdays. Through that time, John Deere has reported record profits in 2021, with a $4.7bn profit in the first three quarters of this year, compared to their previous record profit year of $3.5bn in 2013. The company spent over $1.7bn on stock buybacks in the first nine months and paid out $761m in dividends to shareholders. A point that might be lost on non-hourly workers: regularly requiring factory staffers to do successive >8 hour shifts is a classic management tactic to drive out older workers, who are at higher wage rates, who just can’t take the physical demands. Contrast that picture with the new story from the Journal: Deere’s sales through the first three quarters of its current fiscal year increased 27% from last year, and net income more than doubled to $4.7 billion. For the full year, Deere expects to earn about $5.8 billion. Perhaps as important, management didn’t concede enough to union demands for improved conditions and better healthcare. That is mentioned only in passing in the Journal:
ISM® Services Index Increased to 66.7% in October - The October ISM® Services index was at 66.79%, up from 61.9% last month. The employment index decreased to 51.6%, from 53.0%. Note: Above 50 indicates expansion, below 50 contraction. From the Institute for Supply Management: Services PMI® at 66.7% October 2021 Services ISM® Report On Business® “In October, the Services PMI® registered another all-time high of 66.7 percent, 4.8 percentage points above September’s reading of 61.9 percent. This figure exceeds the former all-time high of 64.1 percent in July; previous records were set in May (64 percent) and March (63.7 percent). The data quickly explains the elevated Services PMI® reading, as two of the four equally weighted subindexes that directly factor into the composite index set all-time highs: The Business Activity Index reached 69.8 percent, an increase of 7.5 percentage points compared to the reading of 62.3 percent in September, and the New Orders Index hit 69.7 percent, up 6.2 percentage points from last month’s figure of 63.5 percent. (The other two subindexes are Employment and Supplier Deliveries, both also in expansion territory in October.) This was above the consensus forecast, however the employment index decreased to 51.6%, from 53.0% the previous month.
October Markit Services PMI: "Business Activity Growth Quickens" - The October US Services Purchasing Managers' Index conducted by Markit came in at 58.7 percent, up 3.8 from the final September estimate of 54.9.Here is the opening from the latest press release:Commenting on the latest survey results, Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at IHS Markit, said:“The final PMI data add to indications that the US economy has picked up speed again in the fourth quarter. After the Delta variant caused growth to slow in the third quarter, the easing of virus case numbers has been followed by a strong revival of economic activity, notably in the service sector, which looks set to be the driving force of the economy as we head towards the end of the year.“While the service sector is seeing a waning impact from the pandemic, it’s a different story in manufacturing, where the supply crisis continues to cause havoc and dampen production growth. Supply delays worsened in October, which has in turn fed through to a further intensification of inflationary pressures.“Going forward, the big questions will revolve around the extent to which manufacturers can overcome their supply chain bottlenecks, which look set to worsen as we head towards the busy holiday period, and whether the service sector can sustain its current resilience as the rebound from the pandemic starts to fade and incomes are squeezed by higher prices.” [Press Release] Here is a snapshot of the series since mid-2012. Here is an overlay with the equivalent PMI survey conducted by the Institute for Supply Management, which they refer to as "Non-Manufacturing" (see our full article on this series here). Over its history, the ISM metric has been significantly the more volatile of the two.
ISM Services Soars To Record High (Thanks To Supply-Chain Chaos) Following the weakness on the Manufacturing side of the economy (PMI ugly down, ISM small drop), the Services surveys were expected to be more mixed (PMI small drop, ISM small gain). Markit's Services survey extended the mid-month gains, rising to 58.7 final print for October from 58.2 flash from 54.9 in September. ISM's Services survey soared to 66.7, smashing expectations of 62.0 and well above 61.9 in September. These moves are occurring as the dismal US macro data turns up modestly... Source: Bloomberg ISM's Services Survey surged to a new record high... Markit's Services print is back above the Manufacturing print. The divergence is very clear between Services activity (improving) and Manufacturing output (weakening)... As Markit reports, in response to a further rise in costs, firms raised their selling prices at the fastest rate on record. Of course, all this survey data should be tempered with the fact that Supplier Delivery times for both Services and Manufacturing remain extremely high (and getting worse for Manufacturing). This is not a good thing... Prices, Supplier Deliveries, and Backlogs at record highs while inventory sentiment hits record low... This is embedded in the survey's final print as a positive factor (due to historically meaning demand is strong), however, in this case it is far more related to supply chain disruptions. The rebound in Services sparked a modest improvement in the Composite US Index, up to 57.6 vs 55.0 in September... Commenting on the latest survey results, Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at IHS Markit, said: “The final PMI data add to indications that the US economy has picked up speed again in the fourth quarter. After the Delta variant caused growth to slow in the third quarter, the easing of virus case numbers has been followed by a strong revival of economic activity, notably in the service sector, which looks set to be the driving force of the economy as we head towards the end of the year. “While the service sector is seeing a waning impact from the pandemic, it’s a different story in manufacturing, where the supply crisis continues to cause havoc and dampen production growth. Supply delays worsened in October, which has in turn fed through to a further intensification of inflationary pressures. “Going forward, the big questions will revolve around the extent to which manufacturers can overcome their supply chain bottlenecks, which look set to worsen as we head towards the busy holiday period, and whether the service sector can sustain its current resilience as the rebound from the pandemic starts to fade and incomes are squeezed by higher prices.” Interestingly, on an aggregate level, the rate of cost inflation slowed to a six-month low in October, but remained historically elevated amid supply shortages. Firms passed costs through to clients, with private sector selling prices rising at the sharpest rate on record.
American Airlines’ Flight Cancellations Are Latest to Disrupt Travel – WSJ --American Airlines scrubbed more than 1,900 flights over the weekend, the latest in a series of cancellations to disrupt travelers’ plans, as the industry struggles to steady itself a year and a half into the pandemic. Wind gusts late last week triggered American’s problems, slowing arrival rates at the airline’s busy Dallas-Fort Worth hub, Chief Operating Officer David Seymour told employees in a memo Saturday. The cancellations snowballed, as pilots and flight attendants weren’t in the right places for flights. “Our staffing begins to run tight, as crew members end up out of their regular flight sequences,” he told them. On Sunday, American canceled more than 1,000 flights as of 8:30 p.m. Eastern Daylight Time—roughly 20% of its total operation and more than 36% of mainline flights. The pattern of upsets that have left crews stranded and caused operations to unravel days later has become a familiar one for airlines. The cancellations by American mark the third such event for airlines since August. That month Spirit Airlines Inc. said a confluence of factors, including bad weather and staff shortages, led it to cancel 2,800 flights over a 10-day period, costing the airline $50 million. Earlier in October, Southwest Airlines Co. LUV 3.91% canceled around 2,000 flights in a $75 million loss that the airline blamed on thin staffing that made it difficult to recover after bad weather in Florida. As Covid-19 began spreading last year, airlines slashed flights and, to conserve cash, urged thousands of workers to retire early or take leaves of absence. They then had to rebuild their operations to catch up when passengers flocked back to airports last summer. Rebooting operations proved to be more complex than anticipated, and carriers that had hoped to capture the surging demand with ambitious schedules frequently got burned. Airlines have been racing to bring back workers and hire pilots, flight attendants and ground staff, but they haven’t returned to full force. Lean staffing has compounded the impact of storms and technical glitches, resulting in disarray that has in some cases lasted for days. “Airlines found they overcompensated in terms of the cut they made to their fleets, to their payroll counts,” said Vik Krishnan, an aviation consultant at McKinsey & Co. “You can’t fly planes, if you don’t have people to unload the bags that are on them, or people to check you in, or people to help you board an airplane safely.”
Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Decrease to 269,000 --The DOL reported: In the week ending October 30, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 269,000, a decrease of 14,000 from the previous week's revised level. This is the lowest level for initial claims since March 14, 2020 when it was 256,000. The previous week's level was revised up by 2,000 from 281,000 to 283,000. The 4-week moving average was 284,750, a decrease of 15,000 from the previous week's revised average. This is the lowest level for this average since March 14, 2020 when it was 225,500. The previous week's average was revised up by 500 from 299,250 to 299,750. The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims since 1971.The dashed line on the graph is the current 4-week average. The four-week average of weekly unemployment claims decreased to 284,750. The previous week was revised up. Regular state continued claims decreased to 2,105,000 (SA) from 2,239,000 (SA) the previous week. Weekly claims were below consensus forecast.
Layoffs, wages, and labor costs: three measures of the labor Boom -Initial claims declined another 14,000 this week to 269,000, and the 4 week average declined 15,000 to 284,750, both new pandemic lows: For the past 50 years, initial claims have only been at these levels briefly at the peak of the late 1990’s tech boom, and from 2015 to just before the pandemic in 2020. Continuing claims also declined 134,000 to 2,105,000, also a new pandemic low: This is very close to the cutoff line of 2,000,000 which has epitomized peak economic expansions in the past 50 years, as shown in the below graph which subtracts 2,000,000 from the reported numbers: For all intents and purposes, nobody is getting laid off. This tightness in the labor market means that workers are also commanding a bigger share of the fruits of their labor. Unit labor costs (how much compensation has to be paid workers per unit of output) increased 2.0% in Q3 alone. This level of increase only occurred 7 times between the modern labor era dating to 1982 and the pandemic: YoY unit labor costs are up 4.8%, which only occurred 4 times since 1982 before the pandemic: While in the financial press unit labor costs are frequently bemoaned because they lessen potential profits to companies, since laborers have been largely cut out of productivity improvements since trade with China was opened in 1999, any return to a more equitable share is a good thing. Finally, the employment cost index was reported for Q3 one week ago. I didn’t note it then, but it also showed labor costs increasing sharply, a new record at a 1.6% increase in one quarter alone: The YoY increase of 4.6% was also a record: What is noteworthy about the ECI is that it tracks compensation *normalized for the type of job,* i.e., it isn’t influenced by a different mix of high wage vs. low wage jobs. Dishwashers are compared with dishwashers, and so on. The recovery from the pandemic has been the best time to be a worker since the late 1990s Boom.
First Look at October: ADP Says 571K New Nonfarm Private Jobs - This morning we have the ADP October estimate of 571K nonfarm private employment jobs gained, an increase over the ADP revised September figure of 523K.The 571K estimate came in above the Investing.com consensus of 400K for the ADP number.The Investing.com forecast for the forthcoming BLS report is for 400K private nonfarm jobs gained and the unemployment rate to drop to 4.7%. Their forecast for the October new full nonfarm jobs is (the PAYEMS number) 450K.Here is an excerpt from today's ADP report press release:The labor market showed renewed momentum last month, with a jump from the third quarter average of 385,000 monthly jobs added, marking nearly 5 million job gains this year,” said Nela Richardson, chief economist, ADP. “Service sector providers led the increase and the goods sector gains were broad based, reporting the strongest reading of the year. Large companies fueled the stronger recovery in October, marking the second straight month of impressive growth.”Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody’s Analytics, said, “The job market is revving back up as the Deltawave of the pandemic winds down. Job gains are accelerating across all industries, and especially among large companies. As long as the pandemic remains contained, more big job gains are likely in coming months.” Here is a visualization of the two series over the previous twelve months.
October Employment Report: 531 Thousand Jobs, 4.6% Unemployment Rate - 
From the BLS: Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 531,000 in October, and the unemployment rate edged down by 0.2 percentage point to 4.6 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Job growth was widespread, with notable job gains in leisure and hospitality, in professional and business services, in manufacturing, and in transportation and warehousing. Employment in public education declined over the month....The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for August was revised up by 117,000, from +366,000 to +483,000, and the change for September was revised up by 118,000, from +194,000 to +312,000. With these revisions, employment in August and September combined is 235,000 higher than previously reported.The first graph shows the year-over-year change in total non-farm employment since 1968.In October, the year-over-year change was 5.8 million jobs. This was up significantly year-over-year.Total payrolls increased by 531 thousand in October. Private payrolls increased by 604 thousand, and public payrolls declined 73 thousand. Payrolls for August and September were revised up 235 thousand, combined.The second graph shows the job losses from the start of the employment recession, in percentage terms.The current employment recession was by far the worst recession since WWII in percentage terms, but currently is not as severe as the worst of the "Great Recession".The third graph shows the employment population ratio and the participation rate.The Labor Force Participation Rate was unchanged at 61.6% in October, from 61.6% in September. This is the percentage of the working age population in the labor force.The Employment-Population ratio increased to 58.8% from 58.7% (black line).The fourth graph shows the unemployment rate.The unemployment rate decreased in October to 4.6% from 4.8% in September.This was above consensus expectations, and August and September were revised up by 235,000 combined. A strong report.
October jobs report: a very strong report putting to rest questions about the strength of the expansion --In the light of the last two month’s relatively “poor” jobs readings, an important question was what was going to happen with revisions. As we will see below, they really delivered! - big positive revisions to both of the last two months’ numbers. Additionally, I have been watching manufacturing hours and payrolls, to see if that white-hot sector was holding up in the face of supply bottlenecks. Also important are whether there were continued gains in leisure and hospitality jobs, or whether Delta had caused those to stall. Both of these metrics also were very positive this month.The 6 month average of monthly gains as of now is 665,000 - not bad at all! But we still have 4.2 million jobs to go to equal the number of employees in February 2020 just before the pandemic hit. If you are doing math, that’s about 7 more months at this rate. Here’s my synopsis of the report:
- 531,000 jobs added. Private sector jobs increased 604,000, but government (mainly education) shed -73,000 jobs, having a great deal to do with haywire seasonal adjustments this year, and specifically public education, which shed -65,000 jobs. The alternate, and more volatile measure in the household report indicated a gain of 142,000 jobs - a relatively poor number - which factors into the unemployment and underemployment rates below.
- The total number of employed is still -4,204,000, or -2.8% below its pre-pandemic peak. At this rate jobs have grown in the past 6 months (which have averaged 665,000 per month), it will take another 7 months for employment to completely recover.
- U3 unemployment rate declined -0.2% to 4.6%, compared with the January 2020 low of 3.5%.
- U6 underemployment rate declined -0.2% to 8.3%, compared with the January 2020 low of 6.9%.
- Those not in the labor force at all, but who want a job now, rose 9,000 to 5.978 million, compared with 5.010 million in February 2020.
- Those on temporary layoff decreased 68,000 to 1,056,000.
- Permanent job losers declined -125,000 to 2,126,000.
- August was revised upward by 117,000, while August was revised upward by 118,000, for a net gain of 235,000 jobs compared with previous reports.
- the average manufacturing workweek, one of the 10 components of the Index of Leading Indicators, declined -0.1 hour to 40.3 hours.
- Manufacturing jobs increased 60,000. Since the beginning of the pandemic, manufacturing has still lost -270,000 jobs, or -2.1% of the total.
- Construction jobs increased 44,000. Since the beginning of the pandemic, -150,000 construction jobs have been lost, or -2.5% of the total.
- Residential construction jobs, which are even more leading, rose by 1,800. Since the beginning of the pandemic, 45,100 jobs have been *gained* in this sector, or +5.4%.
- temporary jobs rose by 41,000 - a huge gain! Since the beginning of the pandemic, there have still been 173,300 jobs lost, or -5.9% of all temporary jobs.
- the number of people unemployed for 5 weeks or less decreased by -152,000 to 2,085,000, which is now *lower* than just before the pandemic hit.
- Professional and business employment increased by 100,000, which is still -215,000, or about -1.0%, below its pre-pandemic peak.
- Average Hourly Earnings for Production and Nonsupervisory Personnel: rose $0.10 to $26.26, which is a 5.8% YoY gain. This continues to be excellent news, considering that a huge number of low-wage workers have finally been recalled to work.
- the index of aggregate hours worked for non-managerial workers rose by 0.3%, which is a loss of -2.5% since just before the pandemic.
- the index of aggregate payrolls for non-managerial workers rose by 0.7%, which is a gain of 6.7% (before inflation) since just before the pandemic.
- Leisure and hospitality jobs, which were the most hard-hit during the pandemic, gained 164,000 jobs, but are still -1,383,000, or -8.2% below their pre-pandemic peak.
- Within the leisure and hospitality sector, food and drink establishments gained 119,400 jobs, and is still -784,300, or -6.4% below their pre-pandemic peak.
- Full time jobs increased 279,000 in the household report.
- Part time jobs increased 159,000 in the household report.
- The number of job holders who were part time for economic reasons declined by -45,000 to 4,423,000, which is an increase of 25,000 since before the pandemic began.
SUMMARY: With the exception of the “relatively” poor gain of 142,000 in the more volatile household report (still up an average of 477,000/month over the past 6 months), the decline in education jobs (almost certainly due to seasonality issues caused by the pandemic), and a slight decline in the manufacturing workweek, everything about this report was positive to strongly positive.To begin with, the last two reports got revised significantly higher. In fact August is now 248,000 higher than when first reported. The average gain for the last 6 months remains over 600,000. All of the leading jobs sectors showed gains. Both full time and part time employment showed gains. Involuntary part-time employment is virtually back to where it was before the pandemic hit. Wages for non-managerial workers continued to increase sharply. Those on temporary layoff are down to 2015-16 levels. There is still substantial ground to be made up. As indicated above, we are still 4.2 million jobs below where we were in February 2020. At the current rate, it will take until next May to make up the remaining difference. Total hours worked are still -2.5% below their pre-pandemic peak, and there are still about 750,000 more permanent job losers than there were before the pandemic hit. This was a very good report, putting to rest many questions about whether the recovery was faltering.
Jobs Data Shows Something Big Changed in this Monstrously Overstimulated Economy by Wolf Richter - The jobs report’s two components – the survey of 60,000 households and the survey of 697,000 individual worksites – came back together today, after having diverged in September in a way that had caused a lot of premature hand-wringing about the labor market. Households reported that the number of people working, including the self-employed, rose by 359,000 in October after having jumped by 526,000 in September, and by 509,000 in August, for a total of 1.39 million over those three months, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics today. This is still down by 4.7 million people from February 2020 (red line). Employers reported that they added 531,000 employees to their payrolls in October. This includes governments, but they shed jobs for the second month in a row. Over the past three months, including large upward revisions for August and September, payrolls grew by 1.33 million employees. This is still down by 4.2 million people from February 2020 (green line): Something big has changed. As jobs have struggled to bounce back, and remain well below pre-pandemic levels, the economy overall, as measured by real GDP, surpassed its pre-pandemic record in Q2 2021. Consumer spending surpassed its pre-pandemic record in Q1 2021. Private investment in buildings, equipment, and the like started setting new records in Q4 last year. Retail spending, which is part of consumer spending but doesn’t include services, has been blowing out every record all year. But the number of people actually working to accomplish these feats is down by 4.7 million. Let that sink in for a moment. That’s the weird phenomenon: The economy has been monstrously over-stimulated to get consumers, businesses, and governments to spend record amounts of money, and it is creating lots of spending that counts in GDP, and it’s creating lots of job opportunities. But millions of people, for whatever reasons, have chosen not to rejoin the labor force, triggering widespread shortages of labor, materials, and components. The jobs report’s two components – the survey of 60,000 households and the survey of 697,000 individual worksites – came back together today, after having diverged in September in a way that had caused a lot of premature hand-wringing about the labor market. Households reported that the number of people working, including the self-employed, rose by 359,000 in October after having jumped by 526,000 in September, and by 509,000 in August, for a total of 1.39 million over those three months, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics today. This is still down by 4.7 million people from February 2020 (red line). Employers reported that they added 531,000 employees to their payrolls in October. This includes governments, but they shed jobs for the second month in a row. Over the past three months, including large upward revisions for August and September, payrolls grew by 1.33 million employees. This is still down by 4.2 million people from February 2020 (green line): Something big has changed. As jobs have struggled to bounce back, and remain well below pre-pandemic levels, the economy overall, as measured by real GDP, surpassed its pre-pandemic record in Q2 2021. Consumer spending surpassed its pre-pandemic record in Q1 2021. Private investment in buildings, equipment, and the like started setting new records in Q4 last year. Retail spending, which is part of consumer spending but doesn’t include services, has been blowing out every record all year. But the number of people actually working to accomplish these feats is down by 4.7 million. Let that sink in for a moment. That’s the weird phenomenon: The economy has been monstrously over-stimulated to get consumers, businesses, and governments to spend record amounts of money, and it is creating lots of spending that counts in GDP, and it’s creating lots of job opportunities. But millions of people, for whatever reasons, have chosen not to rejoin the labor force, triggering widespread shortages of labor, materials, and components.
Comments on October Employment Report - The headline jobs number in the October employment report was above expectations, and employment for the previous two months was revised up significantly. The participation rate was unchanged, and the unemployment rate decreased to 4.6%. Overall this was a strong report. Leisure and hospitality gained 164 thousand jobs in October. In March and April of 2020, leisure and hospitality lost 8.2 million jobs, and are now down 1.4 million jobs since February 2020. So leisure and hospitality has now added back about 83% all of the jobs lost in March and April 2020.Construction employment increased 44 thousand, and manufacturing added 60 thousand jobs. State and Local education lost 65 thousand jobs, seasonally adjusted. This accounted for most of the 73 thousand public sector jobs lost in October.Earlier: October Employment Report: 531 Thousand Jobs, 4.6% Unemployment Rate In October, the year-over-year employment change was 5.8 million jobs. This graph shows permanent job losers as a percent of the pre-recession peak in employment through the report today. (ht Joe Weisenthal at Bloomberg). This data is only available back to 1994, so there is only data for three recessions. In October, the number of permanent job losers decreased to 2.126 million from 2.251 million in September. These jobs will likely be the hardest to recover, so it is a positive that the number of permanent job losers is declining fairly rapidly. Prime (25 to 54 Years Old) Participation Since the overall participation rate has declined due to cyclical (recession) and demographic (aging population, younger people staying in school) reasons, here is the employment-population ratio for the key working age group: 25 to 54 years old. The prime working age will be key as the economy recovers. The 25 to 54 participation rate increased in October to 81.7% from 81.6% in September, and the 25 to 54 employment population ratio increased to 78.3% from 78.0% in September. Both are still low and indicate that many prime workers have still not returned to the labor force. Typically retail companies start hiring for the holiday season in October, and really increase hiring in November. Here is a graph that shows the historical net retail jobs added for October, November and December by year. Retailers hired 219 thousand workers Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA) net in October. This was seasonally adjusted (SA) to a gain of 35 thousand jobs in October. "The number of persons employed part time for economic reasons, at 4.4 million, was little changed in October. These individuals, who would have preferred full-time employment, were working part time because their hours had been reduced or they were unable to find full- time jobs. This measure has essentially returned to its February 2020 level." The number of persons working part time for economic reasons was essentially unchanged in October at 4.423 million from 4.468 million in September. This is back to pre-recession levels. These workers are included in the alternate measure of labor underutilization (U-6) that decreased to 8.3% from 8.5% in the previous month. This is down from the record high in April 22.9% for this measure since 1994. This measure was at 7.0% in February 2020 (pre-pandemic). This graph shows the number of workers unemployed for 27 weeks or more. According to the BLS, there are 2.326 million workers who have been unemployed for more than 26 weeks and still want a job, down from 2.683 million the previous month. This does not include all the people that left the labor force. Summary: The headline monthly jobs number was above expectations, and the previous two months were revised up by 235,000 combined. And the headline unemployment rate decreased to 4.6%. Overall this was a strong report. However, the prime age participation rate and employment-population ratio, are well below pre-pandemic levels, indicating a large number of prime workers are still out of the labor force. And there are still 4.2 million fewer jobs than prior to the recession. This report (and the previous reports) show the impact of the pandemic. When COVID cases are rising sharply, the economy slows, and when COVID cases are falling, the economy picks up. There are other factors, but as the FOMC noted this week: "The path of the economy continues to depend on the course of the virus."
A Subway franchisee said she pulled her 16-year-old son out of school to work at her store because it was so understaffed --The owner of a Subway franchise in Utah said her store was so understaffed that she once pulled her 16-year-old son out of school to work there.Sharon Cockayne told Fox 13 that she wanted to hire three people at her store near Salt Lake City International Airport but wasn't getting any applications."I've brought my 16-year-old son in after pulling him out of school once, my boyfriend has come in to help me, it's gotten to that point," she said. "It's scary."The US is suffering from a labor shortage as record numbers of Americans quit their jobs in search of better wages, benefits, and working conditions. Restaurants have been especially hard-hit.This has prompted companies to reassess how they compensate workers. Many have beenboosting wages and offering improved benefits in a desperate bid to attract new employees and cling to existing ones. In May, average hourly wages for nonsupervisory staff in the restaurant industry hit $15 for the first time.Cockayne told Fox 13 that she had lifted her pay by $2 an hour over the past year but was struggling to hire. The report didn't say what her new pay rate was.Other business owners have said that hiking wages had helped them overcome - or even completely avoid - the labor shortage. One restaurant owner in Manhattan told Insider that she'd had no problems recruiting after raising her wages to $25 an hour.Though workers say they're largely quitting their jobs because they want higher wages or better working environments, some lawmakers and business owners have blamed the labor shortage on enhanced federal unemployment benefits introduced in March 2020.But the benefits ended in September, and companies still say they're struggling to attract more job applicants - even in states that cut off the benefits more than eight weeks early.
More than 140,000 Amazon drivers are getting back nearly $60 million in illegally withheld tips. At least one driver will receive more than $28,000. - More than 140,000 Amazon drivers are being repaid nearly $60 million in tips that were illegally withheld from them by the company, the Federal Trade Commission (FTC) announced Tuesday.The FTC reached a settlement with Amazon in February, with the tech giant agreeing to pay the agency $61.7 million to re-distribute the tips to affected Amazon Flex Drivers. According to the FTC, the average check for Amazon Flex drivers included in the settlement will be $422 — but it said the highest payout to a single driver would be more than $28,000. The FTC said 19,980 drivers will receive checks for more than $600.The tips were illegally withheld by Amazon between 2016 and 2019, the FTC said.Affected drivers should cash their checks before January 7, 2022, the FTC said.Amazon Flex is an arm of Amazon's delivery operations thatcontracts individual drivers to deliver packages from their own vehicles. It is different to Amazon's Delivery Service Partner (DSP) program, which contracts small delivery companies to deliver packages for the retail giant.The FTC said in February that Amazon had advertised to Flex Drivers they would earn $18 to $25 per hour, and on top of that they would keep 100% of the tips they earned.The FTC alleged that in 2016 Amazon started paying drivers a lower hourly rate and used their tips to make up the difference. The FTC said Amazon did not notify drivers of the change.
Debt Cancellation: Taxi Drivers Savor Victory as Medallion Debt Bailout Deal Ends Hunger StrikeIt was a day they hungered for, but feared would never come. Cab drivers on Wednesday broke their hunger strike after reaching an agreement with the city to restructure the crushing debt that’s devastated many taxi medallion owners. The cabbies danced outside of City Hall, with chants of “No more suicides” ringing through the brisk air. Some cried from their seats nearby, snuggling beneath blankets. Others savored the taste of avocado, the first food they’d eaten in over two weeks. For 46 straight days and nights, cab drivers and their allies have protested outside City Hall — escalating to a hunger strike for the past 15 days as they called on the city to step in and help ease their overwhelming financial burden. “I couldn’t be happier right now,” said one of the hunger strikers, Augustine Tang, 37, a driver from Brooklyn. “I’m so relieved. We didn’t ever think it would get to this point. What people don’t really see is that we have been here for years. We’ve been protesting for so many years.” Under the agreement, Marblegate Asset Management — the private equity firm that is the largest holder of medallion loans — will restructure loans to a maximum of $200,000, which then decreases to $170,000 with a grant from the city of $30,000. The interest rate will be capped at 5% over a 20-year term, which will amount to monthly payments of $1,122. That’s a far cry from the hundreds of thousands in loans some drivers long carried as medallion value plummeted amid competition from app-based rideshare services. Tang’s father, originally from Hong Kong, drove a yellow taxi. When he died in 2015, Tang inherited the medallion and the associated $530,000 in debt. He carries on his father’s legacy through driving — and fighting for a win.
Oklahoma Gov. asks Pentagon to drop vaccine mandate for National Guard -Oklahoma Gov. Kevin Stitt (R) is asking Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austinto suspend the Pentagon’s COVID-19 vaccine mandate for members of the Oklahoma National Guard.In a letter to Austin, Stitt said Tuesday that the mandate “violates the personal freedoms of many Oklahomans, as it asks them to potentially sacrifice their personal beliefs in order to not lose their jobs.” “These are patriotic citizens who are willing to put their lives on the line to protect others in our communities during times of greatest need,” Stitt said.Austin ordered all service members to “immediately” get vaccinated against COVID-19 in late Augustafter the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) granted full approval to Pfizer-BioNTech’s two-dose vaccine. About 97 percent of the total force has received at least one dose of a coronavirus vaccine, Pentagon Press Secretary John Kirby said Monday.Deadlines for the mandate differ between the military branches. The first deadline, for active duty Air Force personnel, is Tuesday, while all air National Guard members and reservists have to be vaccinated by Dec. 2. Meanwhile, all active duty Army troops have to be vaccinated by Dec. 15, while Army reservists and National Guard units have to be fully vaccinated by June 30, 2022.In his letter, Stitt told Austin that he estimates over 800 Oklahoma guardsmen “have not and do not plan” on getting vaccinated, representing 10 percent of the total force. The governor said it was “irresponsible” to impose the mandate, which could “potentially limit the number of individuals that I can call upon to assist the state during an emergency.”
Staten Island protesters foreshadow fight against children’s vaccine mandates, warning of possible violence -Hundreds of Staten Island residents holding anti-vaccine signs and waving American flags gathered on Sunday across the street from where New York Gov. Kathy Hochul (D) was scheduled to speak at a campaign event for local Democrats. The crowd was angry about New York City’s vaccine mandate for municipal workers, which takes full effect on Monday.But one attendee had another worry — that the city, like the state of California, will force children to get the coronavirus vaccine. So he offered an unnerving warning.“If they’re going to push this on the kids … I can guarantee you one thing: Town halls and schools will be f---ing burned to the ground,” the man said in a video posted by freelance journalist Oliya Scootercaster.The crowd clapped, cheered, banged on drums and raised their American flags. The protest on Sunday comes as conflicts over mask and vaccine mandates grow more violent across the United States. School board meetings have devolved into vitriol and chaos, while teachers, medical workers and flight attendants have been assaulted and harassed for enforcing state and federal guidelines. The atmosphere in New York has been no exception. On Friday, six firefighters demonstrated outside the Brooklyn office of state Sen. Zellnor Myrie (D). The group told Myrie’s staffers that they will have “blood on their hands” if the mandate goes into effect. Over the past week, more than 2,000 New York City firefighters took sick days as an act of protest. The city is bracing for shortages among municipal workers because of the vaccine mandate. But Mayor Bill de Blasio tweeted on Saturday that 91 percent of city workers are vaccinated. “2,300 more workers got the shot today alone,” he said.
A gun church that glorifies the AR-15 and is led by the son of the 'Moonies' church founder has been making alliances with far-right figures Wearing his signature crown of gleaming bullets and with a gold AR-15 often strapped to his chest, the 42-year-old Pastor Sean Moon is a bizarre religious leader. Sean Moon is the founder of the Pennsylvania-based The World Peace and Unification Sanctuary Church, also known as the Rod of Iron Ministries. He is the son of Reverend Sun Myung Moon, the self-proclaimed Messiah who founded the controversial Unification Church, widely described as a cult. (Its followers are the so-called Moonies.) On October 9, Moon took to the stage at his church's annual"Freedom Festival," which brought together a medley of far-right figures and gun enthusiasts at the Kahr Arms headquarters in Greeley, Pennsylvania.
Republicans back fascist militias threatening school board members, teachers, students - Last Tuesday, October 26, members from two fascist militia groups, the Proud Boys and People’s Rights, stormed a Portland Public School board meeting and refused to wear masks, leading to the cancellation of the in-person meeting. The subject of the meeting was whether or not to mandate vaccinations for students 12 years and older. After the meeting was moved online, members and supporters of the fascist militia groups, roughly 30 people, held their own maskless meeting inside the vacant school board room, which they occupied for a little over an hour. Despite refusing to wear masks inside the building, violating a statewide mask requirement, none of the intruders was arrested. Michelle DePass, chair of the Portland Public School board, told KOIN 6 News that members of the Proud Boys and People’s Rights, “are organized and they’re willing to drive, you know, 20 miles or so to get here.” A “call to action” was sent to Portland members of People’s Rights, a reactionary militia group founded Ammon Bundy, son of anti-government Nevada rancher Cliven Bundy, the day prior to the meeting. Emulating the storming of the US Capitol on January 6, the statement called for members to arrive early in order to “be able to physically be in the building.” This is not the first time Bundy’s group has threatened public officials in opposition to public health measures. Last December, the Idaho Central District Health board had to end a meeting discussing COVID-19 mitigation measures because Bundy’s group had massed outside the building, threatening health officials, including at their homes. Before the Portland meeting could get started, members and supporters of the fascist militia groups, the majority of whom did not live in Portland or have children enrolled in the district, took off their masks. Once members of the board announced that the meeting would be suspended due to noncompliance with the mask mandate, one fascist, wearing a hat that read “Shoot your local pedophile,” erupted in rage, yelling, “You fucking cowards!” Support for the mandate among students was made clear the morning of the meeting. Over 200 students walked out of class at Portland’s Grant High School in support of the measure, which will be voted on by the board next month.
Big Teacher Is Watching: How AI Spyware Took Over Schools - The pandemic caused schools to embrace laptops, tablets, Zoom, and an app called GoGuardian that tracks everything students (and, sometimes, parents) do online. At Pekin Community High School, the teachers are something close to omniscient. Education, even in-person education, is digital in the Covid-19 era, and staff members use a piece of software to watch everything students do on school-issued laptops and to keep them off banned websites. The kids are aware. “They pretty much know that they’re being monitored 24/7,” says Cynthia Hinderliter, head of technology at the school outside Peoria, Ill.Still, class clowns persist. Hinderliter pulls up a detailed dashboard of student online activity, which reveals the identities of rule breakers. A yellow “EXPLICIT” label appears beside the name of a youngster who had typed “sexy girls” and “sugar daddy dating” into Google. Other students were searching YouTube for videos of a farming simulation game, guitar tutorials, and, for some reason, nursery rhymes about trucks. Another popular search: “How you bypass GoGuardian,” which is the name of the tracking software Pekin High uses. GoGuardian has been around since 2014, but the pandemic gave educators new reasons to adopt it. The software is quickly becoming almost as commonplace inside American classrooms as standardized tests.
Student protest at Howard University over abysmal living conditions enters fourth week - The protest by students at Howard University in Washington, DC entered its fourth week on Tuesday, with as many as 50 students continuing to occupy the Blackburn University Center while dozens more camped out in tents outside. The occupation at the “crown jewel” of historically black colleges and universities (HBCU) was launched to protest abysmal living conditions—students complained of mold growing in their dorms, mice, cockroach and flea infestations and poor plumbing and ventilation—as well as the lack of student and faculty representation on the university board of trustees, among other grievances. Student protesters have advanced four main demands: an open town hall meeting with university president Wayne A.I. Frederick and other administrators; the restoration of student, alumni and faculty representation on the board of trustees; a meeting with administrators to discuss housing conditions; and finally, academic and legal immunity for protesters. Rising tuition costs—which now exceed $28,000 annually, up from just over $27,000 last year—add insult to injury, as students pay more to live in deplorable conditions. On October 21, in apparent response to this, the university announced that $11 million in pandemic-relief funding would be distributed to students facing financial difficulties. This would amount to an average of $834 per student, an absolute pittance. Last week, Frederick released an open letter, his first public commentary on the protests, in which he demanded an end to the student occupation. “Howard University’s proud tradition of student protest has never been—and can never be— invoked as a justification for tactics that harm our students,” said Frederick, apparently unaware that the conditions inside the dorms had provoked the uproar. “The current occupation of the Armour J. Blackburn Center is a departure from past norms,” the university president declared. Frederick claimed there was a “distinct difference between peaceful protest and freedom of expression and the occupation of a University building that impedes operations and access to essential services and creates health and safety risks… The occupation of the Blackburn center must end.”
University of Florida bars professors from testifying in lawsuit against right-wing voting rights bill --Court documents released late last week revealed that the University of Florida (UF) barred three professors at the school from providing testimony in a voting rights case against the state, according to filings from federal court. A spokeswoman for UF, Hessy Fernandez, justified the prohibitions on the grounds that if the professors participated in the court case, it would be “adverse to the university’s interests as a state of Florida institution.” Fernandez added “the university did not deny the First Amendment rights or academic freedom” but rather, “the university denied requests of these full-time employees to undertake outside paid work that is adverse to the university’s interests.” As part of their case against the legislation, a coalition of voting rights organizations sought three professors from the university—Daniel A. Smith, Michael McDonald and Sharon Austin—to testify as expert witnesses. The plaintiffs in the case, which was filed last May, are suing Florida Secretary of State Laurel Lee with the intention of overturning the new slate of voting restrictions that Florida Governor Ron DeSantis signed into law earlier that month, known as S.B. 90. In rejecting Professor Smith’s request, the Dean of UF’s College of Liberal Arts and Sciences wrote that “outside activities that may pose a conflict of interest to the executive branch of the state of Florida create a conflict for the University of Florida.” Rejection of Professors Austin and McDonald’s requests to testify were issued with similar arguments by an assistant vice president over the potential “conflicts of interest.”
Pfizer expects $36 billion in sales from COVID-19 vaccine - Pfizer expects to earn about $36 billion in revenue this year from the COVID-19 vaccine developed with BioNTech, the company announced Tuesday, an increase from the previous estimate of $33.5 billion. During an earnings call, CEO Albert Bourla said the vaccine contributed $13 billion in revenue during the third quarter alone, bringing total revenue this year to $24.3 billion. The company forecasts another $29 billion in sales in 2022. Pfizer has the capacity to produce up to 4 billion doses in 2022, and already has contracts in place for 1.7 billion, meaning that most of the revenue the company earns is from the sheer volume of vaccines, rather than the price. Bourla noted that to date, Pfizer has produced 2.6 billion doses and shipped 2 billion doses to 152 countries or territories. Bourla said the company is on track to produce 3 billion doses by the end of this year, and at least one billion will go to middle- and low-income countries. But since it is a two-dose vaccine, that means Pfizer's shot will be used to inoculate 500 million people, at most, in developing countries. Public health experts have expressed concern that wealthier nations have monopolized much of the vaccine supply, leaving poorer countries without access. Bourla said Pfizer is giving low and middle income countries steep discounts on their vaccines, but suggested they need to place orders for next year in order to avoid wealthier countries securing most of the supply.
Long COVID can negatively impact physical and cognitive function, employment, and quality of life for at least one year - Patients experiencing post-acute COVID syndrome (PACS, also known as “long COVID”) may have symptoms for at least 12 months after initial COVID-19 infection, significantly and negatively impacting their cognition, ability to work, participation in physical activity, interaction with others, and overall quality of life, according to a new Mount Sinai study. The study, published in the October 25 issue of the American Journal of Physical and Rehabilitation Medicine, is one of the first to measure the actual impairment and impact of PACS on patients, and detail factors that may exacerbate their symptoms. This work will help guide lawmakers and national and international health agencies to develop strategies and policies to support these patients during their lengthy recovery. “With millions of Americans at risk of developing PACS by the end of the pandemic, a second, longer-term public health emergency has emerged. It is imperative to understand the burden of this novel condition and develop targeted interventions to help patients participate in daily activities, as well as policies that will assist them with their disability and employment status,” “This study is a concerning reminder of how severely debilitating PACS symptoms are, the toll they take on health and wellness, and the fact that, without active treatment, these symptoms appear to persist indefinitely.”The most common reported symptoms were fatigue (82 percent of patients), followed by brain fog (67 percent), headache (60 percent), sleep disturbance (59 percent), and dizziness (54 percent). Researchers performed a more detailed evaluation of the severity of self-reported cognitive impairment and discovered that more than 60 percent of PACS patients had some level of cognitive impairment (either mild, moderate or severe), with symptoms including diminished short-term memory, difficulty remembering names, and issues with decision-making and daily planning. Going further, the study noted factors that the patients said made their PACS symptoms worse. The biggest trigger was physical exertion (reported by 86 percent of patients), followed by stress (69 percent), dehydration (49 percent), and weather changes (37 percent).
Doctors warn men to get COVID vaccination: ‘Do it for your penis’ - The “penis doctor” community is playing hardball to promote vaccine awareness.Convincing the public to get the COVID vaccine has proven Sisyphean, but enterprising doctors may have formulated a foolproof reason why men should get the jab — so they can maintain their erections.Their potentially penis-propping PSA is currently going viral on YouTube.“Listen to the doctors, these are penis doctors,” urges “Saturday Night Live” alum Tim Meadows, 60, in the advisory, which was produced by the Urologists United For Vaccination Education.The humorous two-minute vax promo, hashtagged “#SaveTheFutureBoners,” begins with Meadows and other male actors reminiscing about the first time they got it up, as well as the fun times they had with their no-longer private parts.The clip then cuts to a panel of real-life doctors, who warn the nostalgic sex hounds that “men who have had COVID are six times more likely to develop erectile dysfunction.”Alarmed by the bombshell, an aghast Meadows blurts out: “What are you guys doing? Go get the vaccine!”“We’re talking about your future boners here,” “The Goldbergs” star continues, even joking that “I would cut off my own d–k to protect my future boners.”The clip ends with the medical experts imploring viewers to get inoculated. “Do it for your penis,” says Dr. Larry Levine, a professor of urology at Rush University Medical Center in Chicago.
Deer identified as widespread carrier of coronavirus: study -Yet another study of white-tailed deer suggests that the North American population is harboring widespread coronavirus infection. As much as 80% of the 445,000-strong Iowa deer population may carry the disease, according to a new study, The Times reported on Tuesday.That rate of infection was said to be “effectively 50 times” more pervasive in deer than Iowa’s human population.The pre-print report, now awaiting review from scientific peers prior to publication, showed that deer may have picked up the virus from humans sometime during the testing period, between April 2020 and January 2021, though Penn State researchers are not clear as to how cross-transmission could have occurred.Their samples were derived from both roadkill and deer felled by hunters. An analysis of their lymph nodes reflected a genomic sequencing that hinted the virus had first traveled through humans before infecting the deer.Conversely, there is yet no evidence to suggest that humans have contracted the virus from deer.However, the prevalence of coronavirus among animals may hamper efforts to eradicate the disease from nature — meaning that the elimination of COVID-19 in humans wouldn’t necessarily be enough to prevent another outbreak.Researchers and Iowa wildlife officials are sounding the alarm, particularly for deer hunters and other animal handlers, warning them to take extreme precautions with the animal in nature.
FDA approves Pfizer’s COVID-19 vaccines for children aged 5–11 - On Friday, the Food and Drug Administration almost unanimously, 17–0 with one abstention, authorized the Pfizer COVID-19 vaccine under emergency use for children aged 5–11. The Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices (ACIP) is scheduled to convene today to recommend who might receive the vaccines. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) director must then endorse these recommendations, meaning that the soonest that children can begin receiving vaccinations will be on Wednesday. PS 245 elementary school in New York City, September 13, 2021. (AP Photo/Mark Lennihan) In anticipation of the regulatory approval, the Biden administration is relying on hospitals, clinics and pharmacies to inoculate children rather than public vaccination centers. “Kids have different needs than adults, and our operational planning is geared to meet those specific needs, including by offering vaccinations in settings that parents and kids are familiar with and trust,” said Jeffrey D. Zients, the White House coronavirus response coordinator, to reporters. Sonya Bernstein, a senior policy advisor on the COVID-19 response for the White House, explaining the hazards at play in trying to get children vaccinated, told the New York Times, “We know that access is going to be critical here. The administration has in recent weeks explored ways to provide a kid-friendly experience that makes sure that we’re getting shots in arms with trusted providers in ways that make parents feel comfortable.” Approximately 28 million children in this age grouping would be approved to receive the Pfizer vaccine. The formulation contains only a third of the adult dosing, or 10 micrograms. The vaccines can be stored at standard refrigeration temperatures for up to 10 weeks. As with adults, the vaccine is given as a two-dose regimen 21 days apart.
British Medical Journal: “Researcher Blows the Whistle on Data Integrity Issues in Pfizer’s Vaccine Trial” by Yves Smith -So far, no major US or UK press outlet has taken up an article at the British Medical Journal that calls the integrity of the Pfizer clinical trials for the Covid-19 vaccine into question. At a minimum, the results for 1 000 of the roughly 44,000 participants were compromised. IM Doc, who was the first of several to send this link along, said it was also discussed at a conference yesterday. A participant told him a speaker said: “If true, this is terminally damning and none of the data of that trial can be believed.” The BMJ substantiated the claims of a former regional director and trained clinical trial auditor Brook Jackson of Ventavia Research Group, which was running a portion of the Pfizer Covid-19 clinical trials in several sites in Texas. In the two weeks she was involved, she saw data falsification, unblinding, poorly trained vaccinators, negligence via not following up on some serious adverse events, and large scale failure to complete test on participants who reported Covid-type symptoms. Jackson first escalated internally, and when that got nowhere, reported to the FDA. She was fired the same day. The BMJ published this list of half the concerns Jackson reported to the FDA:
- Participants placed in a hallway after injection and not being monitored by clinical staff
- Lack of timely follow-up of patients who experienced adverse events
- Protocol deviations not being reported
- Vaccines not being stored at proper temperatures
- Mislabelled laboratory specimens, and
- Targeting of Ventavia staff for reporting these types of problems.
Jackson received a follow-up call from the FDA but there was no indication the agency took action. In fact, 11 months later, when the Pfizer vaccine received full approval, the FDA had peculiarly not inspected the Ventavia research sites despite the company fully expecting an inspection and being in fear of it before Jackson filed her complaint. From the BMJ: … after the full approval of Pfizer’s vaccine, the FDA published a summary of its inspections of the company’s pivotal trial. Nine of the trial’s 153 sites were inspected. Ventavia’s sites were not listed among the nine, and no inspections of sites where adults were recruited took place in the eight months after the December 2020 emergency authorisation. The FDA’s inspection officer noted: “The data integrity and verification portion of the BIMO [bioresearch monitoring] inspections were limited because the study was ongoing, and the data required for verification and comparison were not yet available to the IND [investigational new drug].”Allowing Pfizer to withhold data is simply outrageous.
COVID vaccines 5 times more effective at preventing COVID-related hospitalization than prior infection alone - A nationwide study from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) shows that mRNA COVID-19 vaccines are associated with significantly more immunity than a prior COVID-19 infection.Researchers from the CDC’s VISION Network gathered data from more than 201,000 hospitalizations in nine different states. About 7,000 people in that group fit the criteria for this study. The research team analyzed the number of unvaccinated individuals who had a positive COVID-19 test more than three months before being hospitalized for the virus as well as the number of individuals who received the Pfizer or Moderna vaccine and were not diagnosed with COVID prior to being admitted to the hospital. The research team found that overall, unvaccinated adults with a previous COVID-19 infection were about five times more likely to be hospitalized than those who were vaccinated.“This data provides powerful evidence that vaccinations offer superior protection against COVID-19 than relying on natural immunity alone,” said Shaun Grannis, M.D., M.S., vice president for data and analytics at Regenstrief Institute and professor of family medicine at Indiana University School of Medicine. “Many have been asking if they should get vaccinated if they’ve already been infected – this research shows the answer is yes.” Regenstrief contributes data and expertise to the VISION Network.The data analysis also found among adults older than 65, overall mRNA vaccines were nearly 20 times more effective at protecting against hospitalizations than prior infection alone.
Immunity from both vaccines, COVID-19 infection last at least six months: CDC - Immunity from COVID-19 lasts at least six months when one takes a vaccine or gets infected by the disease, according to a science brief released by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). The brief looks at peer-reviewed and preprint data, as well as data that is unpublished by the CDC, to compare infection-induced immunity to vaccine-induced immunity. The agency said that available evidence shows that those who are fully vaccinated and those who have previously had COVID-19 each have “a low risk of subsequent infection for at least six months.” While there is a “wide range of antibody titers” in response to previous infection, “completion of a primary vaccine series, especially with mRNA vaccines, typically leads to a more consistent and higher-titer initial antibody response,” the agency said in Friday's brief. The CDC has urged everyone, regardless of whether they have been infected, to be vaccinated because it was unclear how long natural immunity lasts. But some have argued that people who recovered from COVID-19 have less need to get vaccinated. A separate study released from the CDC on Friday, which was based on more than 7,000 people across nine states and 187 hospitals, found that vaccination better protects against hospitalization than a previous infection. In its brief, the CDC noted that there was insufficient data to extend the findings related to infection-induced immunity to persons who had very mild or symptomatic infection or to children who were infected. Both types of immunity provided high levels of protection, but not complete. “Substantial immunologic evidence and a growing body of epidemiologic evidence indicate that vaccination after infection significantly enhances protection and further reduces risk of reinfection, which lays the foundation for CDC recommendations,” the agency said.
CoVID-19 vaccines lower risk of infection with delta variant, but infection can still be passed on in household settings --People who have received two vaccine doses against COVID-19 have a lower, but still appreciable, risk of becoming infected with the delta variant compared with unvaccinated people. Vaccinated people clear the infection more quickly, but the peak viral load among vaccinated people is similar to that seen in unvaccinated people, which may explain why they can still readily pass on the virus in household settings, according to a study published in The Lancet Infectious Diseases.Vaccines remain highly effective at preventing severe disease and deaths from COVID-19, but some studies suggest they may be less effective against the delta variant – currently the dominant strain worldwide – though the reason for this has not been established. Most COVID-19 transmission is known to occur in households yet there is limited data on the risk of transmission of the delta variant from vaccinated people with asymptomatic or mild infections in the community.“Vaccines are critical to controlling the pandemic, as we know they are very effective at preventing serious illness and death from COVID-19. However, our findings show that vaccination alone is not enough to prevent people from being infected with the delta variant and spreading it in household settings. The ongoing transmission we are seeing between vaccinated people makes it essential for unvaccinated people to get vaccinated to protect themselves from acquiring infection and severe COVID-19, especially as more people will be spending time inside in close proximity during the winter months. We found that susceptibility to infection increased already within a few months after the second vaccine dose—so those eligible for COVID-19 booster shots should get them promptly.” [1]
Six hundred children have been killed by COVID-19 in the US --The latest data from the American Academy of Pediatrics (AAP) released Monday shows yet another week of mass infection among children in the US. During the week ending October 28, 100,630 new cases were officially reported, marking the 12th straight week that official cases among children have surpassed 100,000. Sixteen additional child deaths were also reported by the AAP, bringing the cumulative death toll to a grim 600 child deaths since the AAP reports began in May 2020. Given the deliberate cover-up of reporting of child infections, hospitalizations and deaths in many states across the US, in addition to a lack of systematic testing of symptomatic and asymptomatic children and contact tracing, the numbers are a clear underestimate of the real impacts of COVID-19 on children. The ongoing surge in mass infections coincides directly with the reopening of schools under conditions where community transmission has remained high throughout the US and mitigation policies have been severely limited or entirely scrapped. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) states that 74 percent of counties in the US still have high levels of community transmission with over 100 new cases per 100,000 persons in the past seven days. Since schools began reopening for the fall semester three months ago, one third of total reported cases, or 2.2 million, and nearly one third of deaths among children, or 242, have occurred. Federal and state governments are knowingly allowing for mass infection and deaths among children in order for parents to remain at work to maintain capitalist production. They are doing so on the basis of lies that children are less likely to catch or transmit COVID-19, which were first advanced by the Trump administration and then by Biden. In February 2021, when the Biden administration was pushing its campaign to fully reopen schools across the US, the president told a concerned second-grade child on national television, “Kids don't get… COVID very often. It’s unusual for that to happen,” adding, “You’re not likely to be able to be exposed to something and spread it to mommy or daddy.”
Parents are mixing human milk into their kids' cereals in hopes of giving them COVID-19 antibodies, report says - Some California parents have decided to continue nursing longer than officially recommended in hopes of passing COVID-19 antibodies onto their kids via breast milk, the Los Angeles Times reported Tuesday.Until all children are approved to get the vaccine themselves, these moms believe indirect immunity is the next best way to protect their littlest ones.Many of these parents were already breastfeeding advocates before the pandemic, reporter Marissa Evans wrote for the Times, and they've doubled down on their stance since promising research about antibodies in breast milk has emerged.Some parents told Evans they have slipped their breast milk into their older children's breakfasts; since getting vaccinated and having a second baby, Melissa Pennel told the Times she's been pumping her breast milk and putting it in her 2-year-old's oatmeal, cereal, and smoothies.In a study published this month in Pediatrics, vaccinated mothers who continued breastfeeding for two years or more had "significantly higher" COVID-19 antibody concentrations in their milk than those with shorter breastfeeding periods. The official recommendation for nursing in the US is six months to one year, according to the CDC.The CDC has urged all pregnant people to get multiple doses of the COVID-19 vaccine, since they have a higher risk of complications due to the disease. There is plenty of datathat shows vaccination is safe for both mother and child.More research is needed to investigate how long COVID-19 antibodies last in breast milk, but the authors called for increased support and education about long breastfeeding periods during pandemic times.
CDC approval of COVID-19 vaccines for children is portrayed as the last threshold to “normalcy” - On November 2, 2021, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) released a media statement acknowledging Director Rochelle Walensky’s endorsement of their Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices’ (ACIP) recommendation that children 5 to 11 should receive Pfizer’s pediatric COVID-19 vaccine. The approval means that clinics, schools and pharmacies across the country can begin offering the 28 million children in this age group immediate vaccination. The pediatric COVID-19 vaccine has only one-third of the adult dosing, or 10 micrograms. However, according to Pfizer’s phase 2/3 trial in children of this age, immune titers were as high as young adults receiving the adult dosing a month after their second dose. Additionally, as with adults, vaccine effectiveness was nearly 91 percent among those aged 5 to 11 years. In making the recommendation for vaccinating children, the CDC also had to admit that COVID-19 does take a significant toll on children. They wrote in their statement, “COVID-19 cases in children can result in hospitalizations, deaths, MIS-C (inflammatory syndromes) and long-term complications, such as ‘long COVID,’ in which symptoms can linger for months. The spread of the Delta variant resulted in a surge of COVID-19 cases in children throughout the summer. During six weeks in late June to mid-August, COVID-19 hospitalizations among children and adolescents increased fivefold.” They go on to assert a critical point, “Vaccination, along with other preventative measures, can protect children from COVID-19 using the safe and effective vaccines already recommended for use in adolescents and adults in the United States” (Emphasis added). The admission is in passing, and none of the bourgeois press reporting these developments will bother to absorb the significance or entertain the statement’s implication. On the contrary, the pediatric vaccine initiative, though necessary, “will be used to overcome all resistance by parents to sending their children into social settings rather than protecting them at home,” as the WSWS observed this week. Even as the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) was announcing its near-unanimous approval of Pfizer’s pediatric COVID-19 vaccine, on the same day the New York Times was sowing the seeds for ending facemask mandates by publishing a lengthy opinion piece titled, “We need to talk about an off-ramp for masking at school,” by Jessica Grose. With the CDC’s approval, the offensive to undo all previous restrictions is being accelerated, regardless of worrisome trends in various regions of the US and the world. Despite high levels of natural or vaccine-induced immunity, a surge in cases has led to a rise in hospitalizations and deaths.
The 'Delta Plus' variant —AY.4.2— has been detected in New York and California, but experts say not to panic- A new version of the coronavirus – AY.4.2, sometimes known as "Delta Plus" – grabbed scientists' attention when it began to spread in the United Kingdom in July. Now, the variant has been detected in New York and California, state health officials confirmed to Insider.As of Friday, New York had confirmed five cases of AY.4.2, and California had detected two, in San Diego and San Francisco Counties.The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention classifies the original Delta variant as a "variant of concern." Delta causes more infections and spreads faster than earlier forms of the virus,according to the CDC, and some data suggests that it might cause more severe infection in unvaccinated people, though that's not yet confirmed. As of October, Delta made up more than 99% of sequenced cases in the US. AY.4.2 is a descendent of Delta, but the CDC does not classify sublineages separately. In England, AY.4.2 accounted for 10% of sequenced samples as of Monday. It has been "steadily increasing in England," Jeffrey Barrett, director of the COVID-19 Genomics Initiative at the Wellcome Sanger Institute, wrote on Twitter last week. That pattern is different from other sublineages of the Delta variant, none of which had a "consistent advantage" over other Delta types, he added. Still, AY.4.2 is replacing Delta in the UK at a much slower rate than Delta replaced the Alpha variant, which was previously dominant there, Barrett said.
Colorado governor warns of rationed care as state hits 80 percent vaccination threshold -Gov. Jared Polis (D-Colo.) on Monday warned that surging COVID-19 cases in unvaccinated people was bringing Colorado closer to rationing hospital care, even as the state has reached a partial vaccination rate of 80 percent.“It’s the 20% who haven’t been vaccinated that are filling up our hospital wards,” said Polis at a news briefing, according to Bloomberg. “We would have none of these hospital capacity issues, or orders would be operative, if everybody was vaccinated.”The governor said Colorado may soon have to ask the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) to assist with overrun hospitals.Polis lamented that these problems are particularly tragic because they are "essentially entirely preventable." On Sunday, Polis signed two executive orders in an effort to help his state's hospitals. One order allows hospitals emergency departments to turn away patients, directing them to other facilities, while the other clarifies when "Crisis Standards of Care" can be activated to ration care. Both orders are set to expire in a month, though they can be reactivated, Colorado Public Radio (CPR) reported.As Bloomberg noted, Colorado's vaccination rates is one of the highest in the country. Its hospital bed occupancy rate, however, has been averaging around 90 percent for the past few weeks.According to CPR, 80 percent of hospitalized COVID-19 patients are unvaccinated. On Sunday, the Colorado Department of Public Health and Environment also issued a new health order to ease hospital capacity issues. The order instituted a pause on cosmetic procedures that can be put off for six months without causing "harm to life, limb or function."
COVID-19 still rages, but some US states reject federal funds to help --As the resurgent COVID-19 pandemic burns through the rural U.S. state of Idaho, health officials say they don’t have enough tests to track the disease’s spread or sufficient medical workers to help the sick. It’s not for want of funding. The state’s Republican-led legislature this year voted down $40 million in federal aid available for COVID-19 testing in schools. Another $1.8 billion in pandemic-related federal assistance is sitting idle in the state treasury, waiting for lawmakers to deploy it. Some Idaho legislators have accused Washington of overreach and reckless spending. Others see testing as disruptive and unnecessary, particularly in schools, since relatively few children have died from the disease. “If you want your kids in school, you can’t be testing,” said state Representative Ben Adams, a Republican who represents Nampa, a city of about 100,000 people in southwestern Idaho. Meanwhile, the state is reporting the fifth-highest infection rate in the United States, at 369 confirmed cases per 100,000 people, according to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Schools in at least 14 of Idaho’s 115 districts, including Nampa, have had to close temporarily due to COVID-19 outbreaks since the start of the year. Idaho’s experience illustrates how political ideology and polarization around the COVID-19 epidemic have played a role in the decision of mostly conservative states to reject some federal funding meant to help locals officials battle the virus and its economic fallout. For example, Idaho was one of 26 Republican-led states that ended enhanced federally funded unemployment benefits before they were due to expire in September. Gov. Brad Little claimed that money was discouraging the jobless from returning to work. At least six studies have found that the extra benefits have had little to no impact on the U.S. labor market. Idaho has also rebuffed $6 million for early-childhood education, as some Republicans in the state said mothers should be the primary caretakers of their children. The state also did not apply for $6 million that would have bolstered two safety-net programs that aid mothers of young children and working families. Little’s administration said it had enough money already for those programs. Idaho has accepted some federal COVID-19 help. But hundreds of millions more remain untouched. Idaho has deployed just $780 million, or 30 percent, of the $2.6 billion it received under the federal American Rescue Plan Act, signed into law in March.
Coronavirus dashboard for November 2: the winter wave has begun -- The Delta decline is probably over. Nationwide US cases are up 4000/day from one week ago. The Northeast and South census regions still show a decline, but West and Midwest regions show increases: One week ago only 3 States were in the “increasing” category. Now the increasing trend States include: NJ, AL, CA, NV, AZ, CO, NM, ND, SD, MI, MN, IA, and NE. There are also slight increases in NY, RI, IN, and WI. Some States still show declines: AK, VT, NH, PA, CT, WV, KY, DE, NC, SC, AR, FL, GA, MT, OK, TX, and WY. The declines are almost all in the warmest States + those with the most recent outbreaks. The increases are with few exceptions in the colder States.On the plus side, deaths are down 35% from the Delta peak into the middle of the “normal” range for this pandemic:The winter wave has almost certainly begun.But as of yesterday 80% of all US adults had at least one shot, and later this week we will probably cross the threshold of 70% of all US adults completely vaccinated. Including those age 12 and up the respective numbers are 78% and 68%. We can expect lots of younger school age children to have at least one shot before Thanksgiving, and be fully vaccinated by Christmas.Plus, on average (with plenty of variation) being infected recently almost certainly conveys some resistance to reinfection - and in the past 4 months about 4% of all Americans had *confirmed* cases, most likely meaning that close to 10% were *actually* infected. Put that together, and there are significantly fewer people susceptible to infection at present than there were 4 or 12 months ago, so I strongly suspect this winter’s wave will not be as bad as either last winter’s, or Delta.
Colorado has authorized hospitals to turn away patients as COVID-19 surges in the state -Colorado's governor is now allowing hospitals to turn away new patients amid the state's COVID-19 emergency.Gov. Jared Polis signed an executive order on Sunday authorizing hospitals to transfer or turn away new admissions as the state wrestles with a surge in virus cases.Polis said that the order is targeting staffing shortages at hospitals and other healthcare facilities as they battle an uptick in cases largely caused by the Delta variant. Colorado is averaging over 2,500 COVID-19 cases a day, according tostate data.Currently, over 1,200 people are hospitalized with the virus in Colorado and 37% of healthcare facilities are anticipating staffing shortages within the next week, state data shows.Thirty percent of facilities are anticipating ICU bed shortages in the next week, and almost 50% of all ventilators are being used. Meanwhile, 3,572,399 people are fully vaccinated — around 62% of the state's population.
Inside Russia's ‘fourth wave’: Record deaths, deep frustration and plenty of blame — A routine medical checkup in mid-September nearly cost Alexander Ivanov his life. The clinic was packed with people, almost no one wearing masks. Three days later he fell ill with the coronavirus and wound up in intensive care in Yekaterinburg, in Russia’s Urals region. The 47-year-old resident — who was not vaccinated — watched other patients dying, thinking he was next. Russia’s catastrophic “fourth wave” is a cautionary tale for a failing vaccination campaign, showing the difficulties in correcting course after the government’s confused, on-off messaging about covid-19. Russia’s pandemic measures began with a strict lockdown in early 2020 and dropped before a crucial July 2020 vote on constitutional changes. This summer, Moscow brought in QR codes to prove vaccine status to enter bars, restaurants and cafes, but the unpopular measure was abandoned after a few weeks. Some analysts say Russians’ distrust of authorities and skepticism of doctors — going back to Soviet times — helps explain the country’s vaccine reticence. Others blame anti-vaccine activists and rampant disinformation on social media. But the result leaves Russia as a pandemic hot spot, while countries with higher vaccination rates are lifting restrictions. Almost daily, a grim record of Russian deaths is marked: more than 1,100 a day, according to official figures. That is still understated, many independent analysts say. Hospitals are struggling and small business owners are angered by the reimposition of restrictions, including a partial lockdown from Thursday.
Papua New Guinea morgues overflow as COVID-19 cases surge - Papua New Guinea’s (PNG’s) health authorities have been organising a mass burial to relieve pressure on the Port Moresby hospital morgue, where bodies are stacked on top of each other as COVID-19 cases surge. The National newspaper reported on October 27 that 253 bodies were to be given a mass burial in the capital. The bodies had been in the Port Moresby General Hospital (PMGH) morgue since April, according to hospital chief executive officer Dr Paki Molumi. National Pandemic Response Controller David Manning said: “The mortuary is now filled to and beyond capacity with more than 300 bodies stacked on top of one another, as more Coronavirus (COVID-19) bodies are brought in from the wards and homes.” The morgue was built to cater for only 60. A newspaper advertisement is detailing the names and ages of the people who have died and been left unclaimed. After three days, the PMGH will take the bodies to a plot, allocated by the National Capital District Commission, to be buried together. Among the deceased are 16 children, between the ages of two and 12, left by their relatives in hospital morgues for months. They will receive what is in effect a pauper’s burial, when someone dies destitute without anyone to pay for their funeral expenses. Molumi said four children had died of COVID-19 at PMGH. They were among 39 paediatric cases admitted since September 22, with serious health conditions, including rheumatic heart disease and tuberculosis. “A child with a serious medical condition, which has been complicated by COVID-19 pneumonia has a very high chance of dying,” the doctor warned. In a callous and dismissive statement, Pandemic Response Deputy Controller Daoni Esorom said children will only be vaccinated against COVID-19 “when the need arises,” and only after “data” is collected of children becoming infected. He falsely declared that there was no vaccine for those aged under 18, adding that in any case the “primary focus” was on vaccinating those over 18.
COVID-19’s global death toll tops 5 million in under 2 years --The global death toll from COVID-19 topped 5 million on Monday, less than two years into a crisis that has not only devastated poor countries but also humbled wealthy ones with first-rate health care systems. Together, the United States, the European Union, Britain and Brazil — all upper-middle- or high-income countries — account for one-eighth of the world’s population but nearly half of all reported deaths. The U.S. alone has recorded over 740,000 lives lost, more than any other nation. “This is a defining moment in our lifetime,” said Dr. Albert Ko, an infectious disease specialist at the Yale School of Public Health. “What do we have to do to protect ourselves so we don’t get to another 5 million?” The death toll, as tallied by Johns Hopkins University, is about equal to the populations of Los Angeles and San Francisco combined. It rivals the number of people killed in battles among nations since 1950, according to estimates from the Peace Research Institute Oslo. Globally, COVID-19 is now the third leading cause of death, after heart disease and stroke. The staggering figure is almost certainly an undercount because of limited testing and people dying at home without medical attention, especially in poor parts of the world, such as India. Hot spots have shifted over the 22 months since the outbreak began, turning different places on the world map red. Now, the virus is pummeling Russia, Ukraine and other parts of Eastern Europe, especially where rumors, misinformation and distrust in government have hobbled vaccination efforts. In Ukraine, only 17% of the adult population is fully vaccinated; in Armenia, only 7%.
Global COVID-19 death toll surpasses 5 million: Government policies promote mass death On Friday, the official global death toll from COVID-19 surpassed five million people. This figure, horrific in itself, is known to be a vast under-count. A tracker of excess deaths by The Economist estimates that the most likely true global death toll now stands at a staggering 16.7 million people, roughly equivalent to the global death toll from World War I. The same tracker estimates that nearly 200,000 people are now dying from COVID-19 every week. Amid the ongoing wave of mass death, governments worldwide are scrapping all remaining measures to slow the spread of COVID-19, with the grotesque mantra that society must “learn to live with the virus.” Two parallel processes are unfolding. Countries that had limited mitigation measures in place are now lifting them all, while countries that had more aggressive measures aimed at eliminating the virus are giving in to mounting pressure to let the virus rip through society. Countries throughout the Asia-Pacific that had previously eliminated COVID-19 are quickly lifting all restrictions. On Monday, South Korea will officially enter the first phase of a “gradual return to normal life.” In Singapore, there is now a seven-day average of 3,707 official daily new cases, only two months after the country was recording less than 50 cases per day. In New Zealand, which abandoned the elimination strategy at the beginning of October, there are now an average of 104 new cases every day and rising. Global finance capital is increasingly pressuring China to abandon its elimination strategy and reopen its borders to resolve the global supply chain crisis, potentially exposing 1.4 billion people to the virus. Across Europe and North America, new COVID-19 cases remain highly elevated or are surging once again as winter approaches. The United States, United Kingdom, Russia, Ukraine, Turkey and Germany now account for roughly half of all official new cases globally. In Germany, despite the fact that cases are rising exponentially, the government refuses to enact any public health measures. In the US, where daily new cases appear to have reached a trough at roughly 65,000 per day, and another surge is lurking around the corner, international travel restrictions are set to be fully lifted on November 8. Due to the persistently high rates of transmission throughout the US, there have already been 13,799 official “breakthrough” deaths among fully vaccinated individuals, not including Florida and other states that have covered up this data. New Zealand epidemiologist Dr. Michael Baker condemned the school reopening policies of the Boris Johnson administration in the UK as a “barbaric experiment.” Similar statements were made by multiple scientists at the October 24 webinar. Dr. Deepti Gurdasani referred to the UK policies as “frankly criminal,” and Dr. Jose-Luis Jimenez criticized world governments for refusing to acknowledge the aerosolization of the virus because it is less “convenient.” In the US, UK, Turkey and Germany, as well as in Brazil, India, and many other countries, federal and state governments have lifted almost every mitigation measure in order to fully resume capitalist production, no matter the cost in human lives. Following the pseudo-scientific “herd immunity” strategy outlined in the Great Barrington Declaration, these governments have deliberately killed millions of people. In essence, they are pursuing a fascistic policy of social holocaust not seen since the Nazi regime in Germany. Every politician responsible for these policies, as well as those corporate interests dictating their actions and trade union officials facilitating their implementation, should be the subject of criminal prosecution.
COVID cases break records across Europe as winter takes hold (Reuters) - Coronavirus infections are hitting record levels in many countries across Europe as winter takes hold, prompting a call for action from the World Health Organization which described the new wave as a "grave concern". Soaring numbers of cases, especially in Eastern Europe, have prompted debate on whether to reintroduce curbs on movement before the Christmas holiday season and on how to persuade more people to get vaccinated. That conversation comes as some countries in Asia, with the notable exception of China, reopen their tourism sectors to the rest of the world. "The current pace of transmission across the 53 countries of the European Region is of grave concern," regional WHO head Hans Kluge said, adding that the spread was exacerbated by the more transmissible Delta variant. The virus spreads faster in the winter months when people gather indoors. The region saw a 6% increase in new cases last week, with nearly 1.8 million new cases, compared to the week before. The number of deaths rose 12% in the same period. Germany, Europe's biggest economy, reported 33,949 new infections, the highest daily increase since the start of the pandemic last year. Cases in Russia and Ukraine are soaring. Austria's daily new coronavirus infections surged towards a record set a year ago, making a lockdown for the unvaccinated ever more likely. COVID-19 prevalence in England rose to its highest level on record in October, Imperial College London said, led by a high numbers of cases in children and a surge in the southwest. Slovakia reported 6,713 new cases, also a record, while daily new cases in Hungary more than doubled from last week to 6,268. Poland, Eastern Europe's biggest economy, reported 15,515 daily cases on Thursday, the highest figure since April. Croatia and Slovenia on Thursday both reported record daily infections.
Covid: WHO warns Europe once again at epicentre of pandemic - BBC News - Europe is once again "at the epicentre" of the Covid pandemic, the World Health Organization (WHO) has warned, as cases soar across the continent. At a press conference WHO Europe head Hans Kluge said the continent could see half a million more deaths by February. He blamed insufficient vaccine take-up for the rise. "We must change our tactics, from reacting to surges of Covid-19 to preventing them from happening in the first place," he said. The rate of vaccination has slowed across the continent in recent months. While some 80% of people in Spain are double jabbed, in Germany it is as low as 66% - and far lower in some Eastern European countries. Only 32% of Russians were fully vaccinated by October 2021. Mr Kluge also blamed a relaxation of public health measures for rising infections in the WHO's European region, which covers 53 countries including parts of Central Asia. So far the WHO has recorded 1.4 million deaths across the region. The WHO's technical lead on Covid-19, Maria Van Kerkhove, said over the past four weeks cases across Europe had soared over 55%, despite an "ample supply of vaccines and tools", and colleague Dr Mike Ryan said Europe's experience was a "warning shot for the world". It came as Germany recorded more than 37,000 daily Covid cases on Friday, a record high for the second day running. The incidence rate per 100,000 people is now higher than it was in April, at 169,9, but well below the level in the UK.
Europe facing 500,000 more Covid deaths by February, WHO warns – CNN - Europe is facing a potentially devastating winter that could see half a million people die with Covid-19, the World Health Organization (WHO) warned on Thursday, as it sounded the alarm over a surge in cases and bemoaned stuttering vaccination rollouts on parts of the continent. Much of Europe is battling spikes in infections, with Germany on Thursday reporting its highest number of daily new cases since the pandemic began. And in a dire new warning, WHO regional director Hans Kluge said the pace of transmission across the region was of "grave concern." "We are, once again, at the epicenter," Kluge said in a statement. "According to one reliable projection, if we stay on this trajectory, we could see another half a million COVID-19 deaths in Europe and Central Asia by the first of February next year," he warned, adding that 43 of the 53 countries on his patch could also see high or extreme stress on hospital beds. Large swathes of the continent are battling to beat back surges of the Delta variant, which has complicated the relaxing of restrictions in many countries. Eastern Europe is particularly badly hit; cases are at record levels in Russia and now Germany, while Ukraine's capital Kiev introduced strict new restrictions on Monday. Many experts have expressed concern that further rises in infections, coupled with seasonal winter colds, could place health care workers under unmanageable pressure through Christmas and in the New Year. In its latest weekly update, WHO said Europe recorded a 6% rise in cases on the previous week. That was the highest of any global region, with every other region registering "declines or stable trends." "We are at another critical point of pandemic resurgence," Kluge said. He blamed two factors for the new wave; the relaxation of Covid-19 measures, and a lack of vaccination coverage in the Balkans and towards the east of the continent. "Hospitalization rates in countries with low vaccine uptake are markedly higher and rising more quickly than in those with higher uptake," he said. Germany's health minister Jens Spahn said Germany was experiencing a "massive" pandemic of the unvaccinated, adding: "The truth is that there would be far fewer Covid-19 patients in [intensive care] if everyone who could do it got a vaccination." The UK has also been enduring a stubborn streak of new infections since the end of the summer, but has resisted implementing measure like mask mandates or vaccine passes that have become commonplace across Europe..
China’s New Delta Outbreak Found in 19 Provinces, More Than at Any Time Since Wuhan - More provinces in China are fighting Covid-19 than at any time since the deadly pathogen first emerged in Wuhan in 2019. The highly-infectious delta variant is hurtling across the country despite the increasingly aggressive measures that officials have enacted in a bid to thwart it. More than 600 locally-transmitted infections have been found in 19 of 31 provinces in the latest outbreak in the world’s second-largest economy. China reported 93 new local cases on Wednesday, and 11 asymptomatic infections. Three more provinces detected cases: central Chongqing, Henan, and Jiangsu on the eastern coast. Officials in China say they are committed to maintaining a so-called Covid Zero approach, even though flare-ups are coming faster, spreading further and evading many of the measures that previously controlled the virus. The drastic responses needed to wipe out the delta variant have led several other countries that had been pursuing elimination of the coronavirus, including Singapore and Australia, to shift focus and instead rely on high vaccination rates to be able to live with the virus as endemic. Beijing reported nine infections on Wednesday, including one that was earlier reported as asymptomatic. The capital city’s total case count in the current wave now stands at 38, a small tally compared to the situation in other parts of the world but the highest for Beijing since a pre-delta outbreak last January and February. Ticket sales into the city were halted for trains from 123 stations in 23 regions, officials said at a government briefing.
China has given 75.96% of population complete COVID-19 vaccine doses (Reuters) - China had given 1.072 billion people complete COVID-19 vaccine doses by Nov. 5, Mi Feng, spokesman at the National Health Commission, told a briefing on Saturday. That accounts for 75.96% of the nation's 1.41 billion people, Reuters calculation showed. A total of 37.97 million people in China had received a booster shot as of Friday, commission official Wu Liangyou said at the briefing. The commission said in a bulletin that China had administered 2.312 billion doses of COVID-19 vaccines by the end of Nov. 5, an increase of about 8.9 million from the previous day.
New Zealand COVID-19 cases surge as government plans to lift more restrictions --On Monday, Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern announced an “in principle” decision to remove more COVID-19 lockdown restrictions in Auckland, New Zealand’s largest city. On November 10, retail businesses and public facilities such as libraries will reopen, and outdoor gatherings of up to 25 people will be allowed. This is another reckless decision that will accelerate the spread of the deadly virus. There are now 2,139 active cases—a nearly tenfold increase since September 22, when the Labour Party-led government eased Auckland’s lockdown from “level 4,” the strictest, to “level 3.” Hundreds of thousands of people returned to workplaces and thousands of secondary school students to classrooms, fuelling the outbreak. Parts of the Northland and Waikato regions are in a “level 3” lockdown after cases spread from Auckland. Christchurch, in the South Island, is not under lockdown despite four active cases being found there last week. Three Auckland high schools (Macleans College, Mount Albert Grammar and Liston College) and one primary school, which had partially reopened, were forced to close this week after positive cases were found among students and staff. There are currently 64 people in hospital with COVID-19—the biggest number so far in the pandemic—compared with just 13 on September 22. This includes three residents of the Edmonton Meadows aged care facility, where 15 residents and four staff tested positive.
New study shows environmental and social factors contribute to higher rates of pneumonia in children -- A new study led by researchers in the Louisiana State University Superfund Research Program demonstrates that children who are exposed to a certain type of environmental air pollution are more likely to contract community acquired pneumonia, or CAP, and to be hospitalized for longer periods of time. Social factors, including race and socioeconomic status, were also found to be associated with living in high-risk areas for CAP.Using data from a Centers for Disease Control surveillance study of pediatric pneumonia and geographic information systems, the investigators identified high- and low-risk areas for CAP in the metropolitan area of Memphis, Tennessee. They collected information including the cause of the child’s pneumonia, such as a bacterial or viral infection, public versus private health insurance, age, race and exposure to particulate matter pollution less than 2.5 micrometers in diameter, or PM2.5. These tiny particles in the air are released by industrial combustion, car exhaust and forest fires. PM2.5 is one of the six air pollutants regulated by the Environmental Protection Agency, or EPA, and is linked to higher rates of respiratory tract infections and a plethora of other health problems, including cardiovascular disease.When analyzed independently, race, type of insurance and exposure to PM2.5 were all identified as significant risk factors associated with residence in areas with higher-than-expected CAP. However, race was the most significant factor associated with living in a high-risk area. In the Memphis metropolitan area, Hispanic and non-Hispanic Black children were hospitalized for pneumonia at significantly higher rates compared with white children. Another important finding from this study is that the health risk associated with high PM2.5occurred at levels below the current regulatory maximum standard set by the EPA.
Bill Gates warns world leaders to practice 'germ games' to prepare for bioterrorist attacks - Bill Gates had a message during his sit-down interview with Jeremy Hunt, former secretary of state for health and social care and current U.K. chair of the Health Select Committee – world leaders should prepare for bioterrorist attacks. In attendance at Cop26 on Tuesday, Gates warned international authorities, including the World Health Organization, that bioterrorism is imminent and the best course of action is to play "germ games," Sky News reported."Germ games," according to The Science Times, is when government agencies practice scenarios of another pandemic catastrophe.The billionaire says governments and agencies like the World Health Organisation Pandemic Task Force should invest billions to practice "playing with germs.""It'll take probably about a billion a year for a pandemic Task Force at the WHO level, which is doing the surveillance and actually doing what I call 'germ games' where you practice," Gates said.Six years ago, Gates also warned that an infectious virus was likely to kill millions of people across the globe."You say, OK, what if a bioterrorist brought smallpox to 10 airports? You know, how would the world respond to that?” he continued."There's naturally-caused epidemics and bioterrorism-caused epidemics that could even be way worse than what we experienced today and yet, the advances in medical science should give us tools that, you know, we could do dramatically better."Gates noted that such a doomsday prep would require the U.S. and the U.K. to spend "tens of billions" on research and development (R&D) on the next pandemic, Sky News reported.
Potentially harmful industrial chemicals detected in US fast foods -- Chicken nuggets, burritos and other popular items consumers buy from fast food outlets in the United States contain chemicals that are linked to a long list of serious health problems, according to a first-of-its-kind study published today. Researchers at the George Washington University and their colleagues bought fast foods from popular outlets and found 10 of 11 potentially harmful chemicals in the samples, including phthalates, a group of chemicals that are used to make plastics soft and are known to disrupt the endocrine system. The research team also found other plasticizers, chemicals that are emerging as replacements to phthalates. “We found phthalates and other plasticizers are widespread in prepared foods available at U.S. fast food chains, a finding that means many consumers are getting a side of potentially unhealthy chemicals along with their meal,” In this study, Edwards, Zota and their colleagues purchased 64 fast food items from different restaurants and asked for three pairs of unused food handling gloves. The team tested food items and the gloves for 11 kinds of phthalates and plasticizers, finding that:
- 81% of the food samples studied contained a phthalate called DnBP and 70% contained DEHP. Both these chemicals have been linked in numerous studies to fertility and reproductive problems in humans. These phthalates can also increase risk for learning, attention, and behavioral disorders in childhood.
- 86% of the foods contained the replacement plasticizer known as DEHT, a chemical that needs further study to determine its impact on human health.
- Foods containing meats, such as cheeseburgers and chicken burritos, had higher levels of the chemicals studied.
- Chicken burritos and cheeseburgers had the highest levels of DEHT. The researchers noted that food handling gloves collected from the same restaurants also contained this chemical.
- Cheese pizzas had the lowest levels of most chemicals tested.
Phthalates and replacement plasticizers are chemicals used to make plastics soft and can migrate out of plastics into the food, which is ingested. Some sources of plastics include food handling gloves, industrial tubing, food conveyor belts and the outer packaging used to wrap fast food meals available in restaurants. Previous research by Zota’s team suggests that people who eat food cooked at home have lower levels of these chemicals in their bodies, probably because home cooks do not use food handling gloves or plastic packaging.
A New Map of the US Reveals Cancer-Causing Air Pollution -One of the leading causes of death on a global scale, cancer has claimed countless lives in the past and will keep on doing so. In 2018, 18.1 million new cases and 9.5 million cancer-related deaths were reported worldwide. Scientists estimate that by 2040, the number of new cancer cases per year is expected to rise to 29.5 millionand the number of cancer-related deaths to 16.4 million. That means a lot of pain and suffering for both the cancer patients and their families and loved ones.While the most common causes of cancer include genetic mutations, a big portion of cancers are caused by environmental and lifestyle factors. That's right, living in polluted areas where air and water are contaminated can easily lead to cancer. Now, ProPublica, a nonprofit organization, analyzed the data regarding just how much toxic air pollution industrial facilities emit, and has published the most detailed map of the cancer-causing industrial air pollution in the United States, ever. And it's not looking bright. The hazardous chemicals these facilities produce in these cities and states could add more to the risk of cancer in their respective communities.The analysis behind the map is the aggregated result of a five-year-long EPA data using the reports between 2014 and 2018 combined with more than 1,000 toxic hot spots across the United States. What's worrying is that an estimated 250,000 people living in these hot spots that are exposed to these chemicals could be at grave risk of cancer.ProPublica reports that thousands of facilities that are featured on the map are considered large sources of toxic air pollution and that they need to submit a report to the government each year on their chemical emissions.While this data was open to the public in the previous years in the form of long pages of reports, they were hard to understand for the public. By creating a nationwide map that shows the estimated excess cancer risk from industrial sources ProPublica aims to spread the alarming facts with greater masses. Browsing the industrial emissions rate in your hometown is relatively easy. Just click on a hot spot (if you live in one), search for your city on the map to see the situation, or just type in your address to find the estimated level of air pollution-related cancer risk at your location.
Top Cancerous Air Pollution Sites in U.S. Revealed --An extensive analysis by ProPublica reveals a detailed map of more than 1,000 American communities that are hotspots for carcinogenic air pollution.The worst three are in Louisiana's "Cancer Alley," five of the top 20 are in Texas, and predominantly Blackareas experience double the cancer risk of white areas."Go read this investigation on the toxic air crisis plaguing American communities," the Verge wrote of ProPublica's investigation.As reported by The Verge: The ProPublica investigation underscored weaknesses in how the EPA regulates air pollution. While the agency strictly regulates "criteria" air pollutants like particulate matter, it doesn't set limits on emissions of over 180 so-called hazardous air pollutants. And instead of tracking the cumulative emissions of dangerous chemicals in each area, it looks at pollution like refineries and shipyards one by one — an approach that underestimates the extent to which people living around multiple chemical plants are exposed to toxic air."The public is going to learn that EPA allows a hell of a lot of pollution to occur that the public does not think is occurring," Wayne Davis, an environmental scientist who used to work at the EPA's Office of Chemical Safety and Pollution Prevention, told ProPublica.New: Using the EPA\u2019s data, we mapped the spread of cancer-causing industrial air emissions down to the neighborhood level. Look up your home to see if you and your loved ones are living in a hot spot. https://propub.li/3EwZmSe: See: ProPublica, The Verge
World’s top economies responsible for millions of pollution deaths, mostly in poor countries - Eleven of the major economies caused more than half of the premature deaths in other countries, study finds. Fossil fuel burning by the world’s richest nations and their citizens’ consumption habits cause half the global deaths from fine-particle pollution, according to a study released Tuesday. Most of these deaths take place in developing countries, researchers found, laying bare stark environmental inequities. Particle pollution, which is dangerous when inhaled, is different from the greenhouse gases heating the planet but comes from burning coal, oil and gas. Around 4 million people die prematurely from particle pollution each year: The study suggests that 2 million of these deaths are tied to goods sent to and consumed by the world’s 20 largest economies. Researchers estimated that one premature death resulted from the lifetime consumption of every 28 people living in a Group of 20 country. G-20 countries make up nearly two-thirds of the global population, 80 percent of the world’s economic output and three-quarters of international trade. They also have large environmental footprints when it comes to consumer products, with mostly developing countries manufacturing these goods and suffering the health impacts that arise from these operations. “Most of the people [are] now getting to understand, okay, a lot of consumption [produces] greenhouse gas,” said Keisuke Nansai, lead author of the study and researcher at the National Institute for Environmental Studies in Japan. “This paper says, okay, a lot of consumption also leads to 4 million deaths in the world due to [particulate air pollution]. But the G-20 has 2 million deaths’ responsibility.”
Is Your Tap Water Safe to Drink? Pesticides, Radioactive Material, PFAS Among New Contaminants Found --The Environmental Working Group (EWG) has updated its Tap Water Database for the first time since 2019, which allows U.S. residents to enter their zip code and view the contaminants in their water supply. The update reveals 56 new contaminants identified by regulators and utilities, The Guardian reported, includingpesticides, radioactive materials and Per- and Polyfluoroalkyl Substances (PFAS). The non-profit says the results are an argument for more effective regulation."EWG's Tap Water Database offers a panoramic view of what drinking water quality looks like when the federal office meant to protect our water is in an advanced stage of regulatory capture," EWG President Ken Cook said in a press release.The database is based on annual tests taken from 2014 to 2019 by nearly 50,000 utilities in all 50 states and the District of Columbia, EWG explained.The rise in contaminants is partly due to newly identified PFAS, substances known as forever chemicalsbecause they persist in the human body and the environment, The Guardian explained. These have been linked to health risks including cancer and immune suppression, according to the Agency for Toxic Substances and Disease Registry.Another chemical identified was HAA-9, a by-product of the water-disinfection process that has recently been linked to lower birth rates, The Guardian reported. Overall, the database turned up contaminants linked to a variety of ailments including cancer, brain damage, fertility problems, hormone disruption and more, EWG said.Unsafe chemicals end up in tap water for two main reasons, the non-profit said:
- There is not enough funding to replace lead pipes and clean up existing pollutants.
- Federal safety standards lag behind the most recent science.
The Safe Drinking Water Act of 1974 gave the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) authority over setting maximum contaminant levels (MCLs) for polluting substances, but the number of controlled pollutants has not been raised since 2000, and some existing safety levels are out-of-date. The MCL for nitrate, for example, is based on public health guidelines from 1962.As the Flint water crisis made clear, there is also a major environmental justice component to safe drinking water access in the U.S., with low-income Black and Latino communities especially at risk.
An invisible gas that smells like 'rotten flesh sitting in the sun' is causing headaches and nausea in a California city - Los Angeles County Supervisor Holly Mitchell was driving along the 405 freeway last month when she caught a whiff of rotten eggs. Others in the area noticed it, too. Residents of Carson, a city just south of downtown Los Angeles, compared the scent to farts, vomit, body odor, and "the stench of death" in posts on Facebook and Twitter.The city smells like "rotten flesh sitting in the sun," Monique Alvarez, a third-generation Carson resident, told The Los Angeles Times. The LA County Department of Public Health attributed the odor to low levels of hydrogen sulfide, a colorless gas, on October 9. The gas is emanating from the Dominguez Channel, a 15.7-mile river that empties into the ocean at the Port of Los Angeles.At low concentrations, hydrogen sulfide can cause headaches, nausea, coughs, shortness of breath, and irritation of the eyes, nose, and throat. High concentrations, far higher than those detected at the Dominguez Channel, could potentially result in coma or death.In a recent statement, Mitchell said some Carson residents have experienced headaches and nausea. Other residents told The Guardian and LA Times that they're experiencing respiratory problems, such as coughs or trouble breathing."My grandson coughs in the evening, and it's terrible," Pamela Brown, a 60-year-old realtor in Carson, told the LA Times. "There's something going on, and they want us to believe this is all OK."In a statement, the LA public-health department said residents' symptoms "should go away when the odors are no longer present." It recommended keeping doors and windows closed and using an air conditioner. But the stench hasn't disappeared, despite the county's attempts to mitigate it.So on October 19, LA County said it would reimburse residents for air purifiers and hotel rooms. Health officials also advised residents to keep their pets indoors and avoid outdoor exercise between 9 p.m. and 8 a.m. — when hydrogen sulfide levels in the air are higher — while county officials work to eliminate the smell. Then on October 25, the city of Carson declared a state of emergency to secure additional funding for hotel rooms and air purifiers. Carson and LA County have relocated more than 1,300 residents so far, The Guardian reported.
Climate Change Is Acidifying and Contaminating Drinking Water and Alpine Ecosystems - Garrett Rue grew up fly fishing in central Colorado, often surrounded by mountains stained amber and maroon, and hiking along streams that seemed to borrow those colors. Sometimes he would cast for native trout and come back with nothing—because there was nothing to catch. Then he started hearing stories about people in nearby mountain communities who couldn’t drink their own water. He began to wonder: “These streams have problems supporting ecosystems, and they’re not usable for drinking. What’s going on here?”Nowadays, Rue, a postdoctoral scientist studying waterways at the University of Colorado’s Institute for Arctic and Alpine Research, knows how to read the color code of stream ecology: rusty red or orange for iron oxide, chalky white for aluminum, and yellow for manganese. Such colors reveal the presence of minerals that wash down mountainsides; the results can be hostile to local aquatic life and dangerous for drinking water systems. Some mineralization and acidification occur naturally. But decades of research show some is also a result of historic excavations and waste disposal practices at regional gold, silver and other mines, often found in mountainous regions. Now, climate change seems to be speeding up the process. The chemistry starts in high mountain valleys, many of which have long served as the world’s natural water towers. Climate change is raising temperatures and increasing the frequency and intensity of droughts in those high-elevation alpine environments, where mines typically are located. A growing body of research links these hotter, drier conditions to increasingly acidic water, which causes rocks to shed more minerals into waterways. And the list of what’s entering those waters continues to grow. These trends could potentially compromise water quality in watersheds anywhere in the world where mountains contain high concentrations of minerals, from the Rocky Mountains to the Himalayas to the Andes. Research co-authored by Rue is among the latest entries on this front, and one of the first to link rising temperatures with increasing concentrations of dissolved rare earth elements in mountain streams. These metallic elements are used to polish and color glass—and to make the batteries and magnets that run our ubiquitous cell phones, televisions and motor vehicles. Rue says his findings, published in August in Environmental Science and Technology, could hold still more ramifications for the safety of surface water used for drinking, and for the long-term health of ecosystems fed by these streams.
Europe’s hottest summer on record would have been ‘almost impossible’ without human-induced climate change. Scientists say it could recur every three years. --Europe’s hottest summer on record would have been “almost impossible without human induced climate change,” according to a new analysis that predicts such heat could now occur every three years.The Hadley Center at Britain’s weather service released the findings Wednesday as two weeks of climate negotiations kicked off at the COP26 summit, after more than 100 heads of state and government met this week in Glasgow, Scotland. Leaders have come under pressure to act faster after a summer of fire and floods that brought weather disasters up close for many around the world.The analysis estimates the likelihood of the blistering temperatures, running simulations to compare the climate today with how it would have been without human influence.A European summer as hot as that of 2021 — with the June-August average nearly 1 degree Celsius (1.8 degree Fahrenheit) higher than that of 1991 to 2020 — will return every three years and could take place every year by the end of the century, the study found. Before the 1990s, the estimated frequency was once every thousands of years.
One of California’s Wealthiest Counties Could Run Out of Water Next Summer - To increase supply during the severe drought, Marin County is considering buying water from agricultural areas and piping it across the San Francisco Bay. Welcome to the future in Marin County, one where a $2 million house with an ocean view doesn’t necessarily come with a reliable water supply. Water managers are taking extraordinary measures to keep faucets flowing should the state enter a third year of a punishing drought this winter. That this affluent redwood-studded ecotopia faces such a possibility, though, is a harbinger of a climate-constrained destiny that is fast arriving.
Heavy lake-effect snow hits areas around Great Lakes, the beginning of what could be a 'blockbuster' lake-effect snow season - Heavy lake-effect snow hit areas around Great Lakes on November 2 and 3, 2021, dropping nearly 30 cm (1 foot) on parts of the region. A weather station in northern Michigans' Gaylord registered 29.7 cm (11.7 inches) of snow in 24 hours on November 2, making it the snowiest day in November at the NWS office in Gaylord. The previous record was 27.1 cm (10.7 inches) and the records there began in 1998. It was also the 6th highest 1-day total at the office across all months. This is just the beginning of what could be a blockbuster lake-effect snow season, according to AccuWeather forecasters.1, 2 "With few cold outbreaks in October, each of the Great Lakes has a fever, so to speak. With water temperatures several degrees above normal, most of the lakes have set new records for this time of year according to NOAA CoastWatch, which maintains records back to 1995," AccuWeather's Jesse Ferrell said. "NOAA reported the average temperature of all five Great Lakes has set a daily record each day since September 29. The warmer the lakes, the more potential for snow records to fall as more cold air pours over the lakes in the upcoming weeks."
Atmospheric river hits southern Alaska, dropping historic rainfall, U.S.An atmospheric river impacted southern Alaska over the past couple of days, bringing prolonged heavy rainfall which resulted in historic rainfall totals. The rain began on Friday, October 29 and continued through November 3. Flooding was reported in Girdwood, near Alyeska while a landslide closed the Sterling Highway. The Portage Glacier Visitor's Center, about 30 km (18 miles) SE of Girdwood observed historic rainfall totals, NWS Alaska Region said. The area received 478.5 mm (18.84 inches) on October 30 and 31, 2021, making it their 4th greatest 2-day total. Another 76.2 mm (3 inches) fell there on November 1, bringing their 3-day total to 567.69 mm (22.35 inches). This marked their 3rd greatest 3-day total on record.1 "Girdwood and Portage absolutely crushed their all-time 1 and 2-day rainfall records. NOAA Atlas-14 estimated return intervals for these rainfall amounts were between 500 - 1 000 years," NWS Anchorage said. From October 29 to November 3, Portage Lake Visitor Center ASOS registered 692.65 mm (27.27 inches) of rain, base of Alyeska COOP station 449.58 mm (17.70 inches), Alaska railroad at Portage 295.40 mm (11.63 inches), Snow River near Seward 270.76 mm (10.66 inches), Kenai Lake RAWS 234.69 mm (9.24 inches), Resurrection River at Exit Glacier 222.75 mm (8.77 inches), Alaska Railroad at Moose Pass 187.45 mm (7.38 inches) and Seward, AK 171.45 mm (6.75 inches). "The recurrence interval of many of these values range from a 1 in 25 year record to a 1 in 1 000 year record event," NWS Anchorage said. "The rainfall from Portage Lake Visitor Center represents the farthest north location in the United States to receive consecutive days of 203.2 mm (8+ inches) of rain. This represents the wettest 3 day period since records began in 1972, beating the previous record from 2011 by 155.19 mm (6.11 inches).2
Vapor Storms Are Threatening People and Property - The summer of 2021 was a glaring example of what disruptive weather will look like in a warming world. In mid-July, storms in western Germany and Belgium dropped up to eight inches of rain in two days. Floodwaters ripped buildings apart and propelled them through village streets. A week later a year’s worth of rain—more than two feet—fell in China’s Henan province in just three days. Hundreds of thousands of people fled rivers that had burst their banks. In the capital city of Zhengzhou, commuters posted videos showing passengers trapped inside flooding subway cars, straining their heads toward the ceiling to reach the last pocket of air above the quickly rising water. In mid-August a sharp kink in the jet stream brought torrential storms to Tennessee that dropped an incredible 17 inches of rain in just 24 hours; catastrophic flooding killed at least 20 people. None of these storm systems were hurricanes or tropical depressions.Soon enough, though, Hurricane Ida swirled into the Gulf of Mexico, the ninth named tropical storm in the year’s busy North Atlantic season. On August 28 it was a Category 1 storm with sustained winds of 85 miles per hour. Less than 24 hours later Ida exploded to Category 4, whipped up at nearly twice the rate that the National Hurricane Center uses to define a rapidly intensifying storm. It hit the Louisiana coast with winds of 150 miles an hour, leaving more than a million people without power and more than 600,000 without water for days. Ida’s wrath continued into the Northeast, where it delivered a record-breaking 3.15 inches of rain in one hour in New York City. The storm killed at least 80 people and devastated a swath of communities in the eastern U.S. What all these destructive events have in common is water vapor—lots of it. Water vapor—the gaseous form of H2O—is playing an outsized role in fueling destructive storms and accelerating climate change. As the oceans and atmosphere warm, additional water evaporates into the air. Warmer air, in turn, can hold more of that vapor before it condenses into cloud droplets that can create flooding rains. The amount of vapor in the atmosphere has increased about 4 percent globally just since the mid-1990s. That may not sound like much, but it is a big deal to the climate system. A juicier atmosphere provides extra energy and moisture for storms of all kinds, including summertime thunderstorms, nor’easters along the U.S. Eastern Seaboard, hurricanes and even snowstorms. Additional vapor helps tropical storms like Ida intensify faster, too, leaving precious little time for safety officials to warn people in the crosshairs.
Deadly landslide hits Colombia's Narino Department - At least 14 people have died and 6 remain missing after a large landslide hit southwestern Colombia's Narino Department, Mallama Municipality on November 2, 2021, destroying two buildings. The landslide hit the mountainous San Miguel village after heavy rains.Search and rescue operations deployed to the site were suspended due to the potential for more landslides in the area.1The landslide has also blocked the Junin-Pedregal highway. Orange alerts for landslides remain in effect across many municipalities of the Narino Department and moderate rainfall is forecast on November 4 and 5.2
Washington and Baltimore residents hit by near-record tidal flooding - A major storm hit the Baltimore-Washington D.C. area on Friday, causing widespread flooding. Residents in low-lying areas faced knee-deep water, road closures, and power outages. As late as Sunday, 14 million people were still under the impact of flood advisories and warnings. The National Weather Service (NWS) stated “up to one half foot of inundation above ground level in low lying areas” was possible “due to tidal flooding” in Harford County, Anne Arundel County, and DC. The three areas encompass a population of over 1.5 million people. The NWS warned people to avoid travelling unnecessarily and to do what they can “to protect flood-prone property.” The advisories remain in effect until at least Monday morning when conditions are expected to improve. Many buildings were undoubtedly damaged, but because the flooding lasted through the weekend, people have only just begun to take stock. The NWS issued a coastal flood warning for the areas surrounding the Chesapeake Bay and Potomac River early on Friday. Maryland Governor Larry Hogan declared a state of emergency for all the areas in Maryland under the coastal flood warning. Baltimore County announced nineteen road closures by Friday night, along with 10 downed trees blocking roads. According to a local news report, the Baltimore Gas & Electric outage map showed over 200 outages on Friday night affecting roughly 5,000 customers. By Sunday afternoon there were still 38 active outages impacting hundreds of customers. In the Washington D.C. area, Pepco was still showing 10 active outages Sunday afternoon. Ellicott City, a low-lying neighborhood outside of Baltimore, was spared the impact of this weekend’s rains despite being hit with devastating floods several times in recent years. This was due to the majority of flooding coming not from inland rainfall that overwhelmed drainage systems and rivers, but storm surge which inundated coastal areas often only a few feet above sea level. Meteorologists warned that the storm surge would produce record high tides and some of the worst flooding since Hurricane Isabel ravaged the region in 2003. This was confirmed by many residents who had not previously seen such extreme flooding. The high tides on Friday morning and evening came in at over four feet, compared to a usual height of between one and one-and-a-half feet, with little subsidence in between. Entire neighborhoods were submerged, including Old Town Alexandria in Virginia, and Annapolis and the Inner Harbor of Baltimore in Maryland. Pictures circulated on social media showing shop fronts with several feet of water in front, and some residents paddling through streets in kayaks or canoes. A BaltimoreMagazine article from 2015 discussing the impact of sea level rise in the state notes, “[f]loods have increased by more than 900% in both cities since 1960. Some projections call for 225 or more such floods a year for Baltimore and essentially daily inundation for Annapolis by 2045.” The article circulated on social media Friday, with many noting somberly how the predictions made in the article are beginning to come true.
Can it be saved? Sea level rise means this RI town will be underwater. Flood-prone Warren plots an ambitious retreat from rising seas and coastal flooding. The other half of the plan is to create a brand-new neighborhood less than a mile away on higher ground off Metacom Avenue, with attractive housing and spacious storefronts, where the displaced residents and businesses can go to get out of the flood zone. “It’s not unique, but it is unusual,” says A.R. Siders, a professor in the Disaster Research Center at the University of Delaware. “In fact, it’s exactly the holistic, strategic planning that climate adaptation experts advise.” The plan, known as “Market to Metacom,” is visionary and pragmatic all at once. Nearly a tenth of the town’s 10,000-strong population lives in the Market Street area. Warren — the smallest town in the smallest county in the smallest state in the nation — can’t afford to shrink anymore. If there were fewer homes and businesses, the town would lose vital tax revenues, the lifeblood of any community. Down on its luck for so long and overshadowed by wealthier neighbors to the north and south, Warren has undergone a revival of late, its historic downtown that was once home to mill workers and shipwrights becoming a destination for artists and empty-nesters.
Satellite monitoring of Greenland ice melting highlights global flood risk -- Global warming has caused extreme ice melting events in Greenland to become more frequent and intense over the past 40 years, raising sea levels and flood risk worldwide, finds new research involving UCL academics.Over the past decade alone, 3.5 trillion tons of ice has melted from Greenland's surface and flowed into the ocean—enough to cover the UK with around 15m of meltwater, or all of New York City with around 4500m.Published today in Nature Communications, the new study is the first to use satellite data to detect this phenomenon—known as ice sheet runoff—from space.Funded by the European Space Agency (ESA) as part of its project "Polar+ Surface Mass Balance Feasibility," the study used measurements from the ESA's CryoSat-2 satellite mission, using estimates of surface elevation change over time.One of the very few satellites orbiting with 2 degrees of the planet's poles, CryoSat-2 has provided scientists with a long history of data no other spacecraft could reach since its launch over 11 years ago, transforming scientist's capacity to study the polar regions. It remains key to research and knowledge critical to decision-making on the planet's health. The international team of researchers found that over the past four decades Greenland's meltwater runoff has risen by 21%—and has become 60% more erratic from one summer to the next.The findings revel that between 2011 and 2020 increased meltwater runoff from Greenland raised the global sea level by one centimeter—heightening the risk of flooding worldwide and disrupting marine ecosystems in the Arctic Ocean. Raising sea levels can also alter patterns of ocean and atmospheric circulation that affect weather conditions across the globe.One third of this rise was produced in just two summers—2012 and 2019—when extreme weather led to record-breaking levels of ice melting not seen in the past 40 years.The study shows that during the past decade, runoff from Greenland has averaged 357 billion tons of ice melt per year—equating to almost 1 millimeter of global sea level rise—reaching a maximum of 527 billion tons in 2012, when changes in atmospheric patterns caused unusually warm air to sit over much the ice sheet. These changes are related to extreme weather events such as heatwaves, which have become more frequent and are now a major cause of ice loss from Greenland.
Greenland's ice sheet is melting, global seal level may rise 9 inches - Greenland's ice sheet, the biggest ice sheet in the world behind Antarctica, has melted so much in the past decade that global sea levels rose by 1 centimeter, and trends predict sea levels can rise nearly a foot higher by the end of the century.Research published in the journal Nature Communications on Monday says 3.5 trillion tons of Greenland's ice sheet melted from 2011 to 2020, which would be enough to flood all of New York City in 14,700 feet of water.The ice sheet covers more than 656,000 square miles, and if it were to fully melt, the global sea level would rise about 20 feet, according to the National Snow and Ice Date Center. While much of the ice sheet remains intact, researchers from the University of Leeds Centre for Polar Observation and Modelling in Northern England found it is melting at an exceptional rate, increasing 21% in the past 40 years.“Observations show that extreme melt events in Greenland have become more frequent and more intense – as well as more erratic – which is a global problem," Lin Gilbert, co-author of the study, said in a statement. The team used satellite data from the European Space Agency to estimate the elevation of the ice sheet, the first time a space object has been used to do so. The team found that from 2011 to 2020, the runoff of Greenland's ice sheet averaged about 357 billion tons a year.That would, on average, raise the global sea level about 1 millimeter a year, but during that time, two years – 2012 and 2019 – experienced exceptionally more runoff than others as extreme weather led to, "record-breaking levels of ice melting." In 2019, the runoff was about 527 billion tons.The discovery comes after the National Snow and Ice Date Center said the sheet's summer melt increased by 30% from 1979 to 2006 because of higher temperatures."Greenland is also vulnerable to an increase in extreme weather events," said lead author Thomas Slater. "As our climate warms, it’s reasonable to expect that the instances of extreme melting in Greenland will happen more often – observations such as these are an important step in helping us to improve climate models and better predict what will happen this century." Leeson said that by 2100, the global sea level can rise anywhere from 1 to 9 inches because of melting, which could be dangerous to coastal cities around the world."This prediction has a wide range, in part because of uncertainties associated with simulating complex ice melt processes, including those associated with extreme weather," she said. Although it was not included in the study, evidence shows that this past summer was already a significant one for the ice sheet. In August,it rained on the summit for the first time since weather recording began there in 1950.
La Palma volcano eruption - Insane drone video from the edge of caldera, Canary Islands (video) Volcano eruption in the Canary Islands of Spain continues into the 7th week. Huge lava fountain throwing chunks of molten rock over 460 m (1 500 feet) in the air shot from up close with a drone as it was being pelted with small fallout. A massive ash cloud is visible as the volcano is now in an explosive phase.
Powerful explosive event at Karymsky volcano, ash up to 10.5 km (34 500 feet) a.s.l., Russia - A powerful explosive event started at the Russian Karymsky volcano, Kamchatka at 07:30 UTC on November 3, 2021, ejecting ash up 9.5 km (31 200 feet) and then up to 10.5 km (34 500 feet) above sea level. The Aviation Color Code remains at Orange. Satellite data acquired at 21:45 UTC showed a 550 x 130 km (341 x 80 miles) ash cloud at a distance of 625 km (388 miles) southeast of the volcano.1 By 06:33 UTC on November 4, two large ash clouds 400 x 560 km (248 x 348 miles) and 280 x 80 km (174 x 50 miles) in size continued to move for 1 090 km (677 miles) and 460 km (286 miles), respectively, to the east and southeast of the volcano.2 The ash cloud stretched for 2 250 km (1 400 miles) by 23:51 UTC on November 4, with the frontal eastern part moving further to the east, and the western part - to the northeast of the volcano.3 A moderate eruptive activity of the volcano continues, KVERT said, adding that ash explosions up to 7 - 8 km (23 000 -26 200 feet) a.s.l. could occur at any time. Ongoing activity could affect international and low-flying aircraft.
Asteroid 2021 VH flew past Earth at just 0.08 LD - A newly-discovered asteroid designated 2021 VH flew past Earth at 0.08 LD / 0.00020 AU (29 919 km / 18 591 miles) from the center of our planet at 10:33 UTC on November 1, 2021. This is about 23 500 km (14 600 miles) from the surface.Since the start of the year, our sky surveys have discovered a total of 118 asteroids whose orbits take them within 1 lunar distance from the center of Earth, including 2021 UO7 on November 4.According to data available on November 3, the month of October 2021 had 22 known <1 LD asteroid flybys, making it the month with the largest number of such flybys since at least 2018, and probably on record. Asteroid 2021 VH was first observed at ATLAS-MLO, Mauna Loa, Hawaii on November 2, one day after it made its close approach. It belongs to the Aten group of asteroids and has an estimated diameter between 3 and 6.8 m (9.8 - 22.3 feet). The object is the 37th closest approach on record (since 1900), sharing this place with 2 other objects.
Long-duration M1.7 solar flare erupts from geoeffective AR 2981 -- A long-duration M1.7 solar flare erupted from geoeffective Active Region 2981 at 03:01 UTC on November 2, 2021. The event started at 01:20 and ended at 03:50 UTC. The event was associated with a 10cm Radio Burst (tenflare) peaking at 110 sfu at 02:36 UTC. A 10cm radio burst indicates that the electromagnetic burst associated with a solar flare at the 10cm wavelength was double or greater than the initial 10cm radio background. This can be indicative of significant radio noise in association with a solar flare. This noise is generally short-lived but can cause interference for sensitive receivers including radar, GPS, and satellite communications. A Type II Radio Emission with an estimated velocity of 626 km/s was registered at 01:29 UTC. These emissions occur in association with eruptions on the Sun and typically indicate a coronal mass ejection (CME) is associated with a flare event. In addition, a Type IV emission was registered at 01:30 UTC. Type IV emissions occur in association with major eruptions on the Sun and are typically associated with strong CMEs and solar radiation storm. It appears this flare produced a halo CME, with an impact to Earth expected on November 4.
Series of CMEs expected to impact Earth, G2 - Moderate geomagnetic storm watch in effect - A series of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) produced by Regions 2887 and 2891 over the past couple of days will likely impact Earth by late November 3 to early November 4, causing additional enhancements to the solar wind environment already enhanced due to coronal hole influence. CME effects are expected to persist through November 5.As a result, SWPC has issued a G2 - Moderate geomagnetic storm watch for November 4.Potential impacts:(area of impact primarily poleward of 55 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude) Induced Currents - Power grid fluctuations can occur. High-latitude power systems may experience voltage alarms.Spacecraft - Satellite orientation irregularities may occur; increased drag on low Earth-orbit satellites is possible.Radio - HF (high frequency) radio propagation can fade at higher latitudes.Aurora - Aurora may be seen as low as New York to Wisconsin to Washington state.
Series of CMEs impact Earth, sparking G3 - Strong geomagnetic storming - A coronal mass ejection (CME) produced by the long-duration M1.7 solar flare1 at 03:01 UTC on November 2, 2021, reached Earth at 19:57 UTC on November 3, sparking G3 - Strong geomagnetic storming. The CME overtook and merged with at least one, possibly two or more, previously produced CMEs that were on their way toward Earth. Wind speeds increased to greater than 700 km/s, Bt increased to 20nT, and the Bz component reached a southward deflection of -16 nT as the CMEs hit our planet. The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to unsettled levels due to the influence of a positive polarity CH HSS before the impact at 19:57 UTC, with a deviation of 21nT measured at the FRD magnetometer in response to the CME shock arrival.Geomagnetic K-index of 4 threshold was reached at 21:00 UTC, followed by K-index of 5 (G1 - Minor geomagnetic storm) at 21:24 UTC, and K-index of 6 (G2 - Moderate) at 21:46 UTC. K-index of 7 (G3 - Strong geomagnetic storm) threshold was reached at 23:59 UTC and again at 08:48 UTC and 09:34 UTC on November 4. G3 - Strong geomagnetic storm potential impacts (area of impact primarily poleward of 50 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude)
- Induced Currents - Power system voltage irregularities possible, false alarms may be triggered on some protection devices.
- Spacecraft - Systems may experience surface charging; increased drag on low Earth-orbit satellites and orientation problems may occur.
- Navigation - Intermittent satellite navigation (GPS) problems, including loss-of-lock and increased range error may occur.
- Radio - HF (high frequency) radio may be intermittent.
- Aurora - Aurora may be seen as low as Pennsylvania to Iowa to Oregon.
Sun has Fired Three More Rounds of Solar Flares Towards Earth Since November 1; Scientists Predict Geomagnetic Storms -- The Sun has, since last week, fired several rounds of solar flares, all of which can lead to potential power grid fluctuations and irregularities in satellite orientation on Earth, as per multiple sources. This week, since November 1, the Sun has produced three of the outbursts that scientists call coronal mass ejections (CMEs), Space.com reported. CME can be defined as a massive eruption of solar particles due to intense flares from the Sun aimed directly at Earth. CMEs shoot globs of gas and magnetic fields out into space, often from sunspots, which are knots in the Sun's magnetic field. On November 1 and 2, a sunspot designated AR2887 unleashed two of these outbursts. Then, later in the day on November 2, a second sunspot called AR2891 produced a CME as well. That third outburst, called "cannibal", is moving more quickly than its two predecessors, so it swept through all of one previous CME and part of the other, according to monitors at SpaceWeather.com. All three CMEs have been headed more or less toward Earth, and scientists predict that the resulting large CME will arrive at Earth and produce geomagnetic storms beginning Thursday, the report said. The US Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), which tracks CMEs and similar events, has declared a minor geomagnetic storm watch for Wednesday and a moderate watch for Thursday. As a result of these storms, SWPC has warned of potential power grid fluctuations and irregularities in satellite orientation. The predictions indicated that the storms might also trigger stunning aurora displays of the northern lights as far south as New York, Wisconsin and Washington. The Sun's activity is governed by an 11-year cycle; currently, the Sun is in what scientists have labelled "solar cycle 25." This cycle is expected to peak in 2025, and early predictions suggested it would be a reasonably moderate cycle, much like its predecessor. Last week, NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory captured a "significant solar flare" erupting from the Sun, which resulted in disruptions in GPS signals on Earth and supercharged Earth's northern lights. The Sun emitted an X1-class flare, the most intense so far, NASA said in a statement on Friday. The US space agency tweeted about the flare: The X1-class flare caused a temporary yet strong radio blackout across the sunlit side of Earth, centred on South America, according to SWPC.
Global CO2 emissions have been flat for a decade, new data reveals - Carbon Brief - Global carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from fossil fuels and cement have rebounded by 4.9% this year, new estimates suggest, following a Covid-related dip of 5.4%in 2020.The Global Carbon Project (GCP) projects that fossil emissions in 2021 will reach 36.4bn tonnes of CO2 (GtCO2), only 0.8% below their pre-pandemic high of 36.7GtCO2 in 2019.The researchers say they “were expecting some sort of rebound in 2021” as the global economy bounced back from Covid-19, but that it was “bigger than expected”.While fossil emissions are expected to return to near-record levels, the study also reassesses historical emissions from land-use change, revealing that global CO2 output overall may have been effectively flat over the past decade.The 2021 GCP almost halves the estimate of net emissions from land-use change over the past two years – and by an average of 25% over the past decade.These changes come from an update to underlying land-use datasets that lower estimates of cropland expansion, particularly in tropical regions. Emissions from land-use change in the new GCP dataset have been decreasing by around 4% per year over the past decade, compared to an increase of 1.8% per year in the prior version. However, the GCP authors caution that uncertainties in land-use change emissions remain large and “this trend remains to be confirmed”.The GCP study, which is not yet peer-reviewed, is the 16th annual “global carbon budget”. The budget also reveals:
- China and India both surpassed their 2019 emission peaks in 2021. Chinese emissions grew by 5.5% between 2019 and 2021, while Indian emissions grew by 4.4%.
- Chinese coal use was a particularly large driver of the global rebound in emissions, with the power and industry sectors in China the main contributors.
- Coal, oil and gas all fell during the pandemic, but both coal and gas emissions have already surpassed their pre-pandemic levels, with a 2% increase in gas emissions and a 1% increase in coal emissions between 2019 and 2021.
- Oil emissions remain around 6% below 2019 levels and this persistent reduction is one of the main reasons 2021 emissions did not set a new record.
The new updates to global CO2 emissions in the GCP substantially revise scientists’ understanding of global emissions trajectories over the past decade. The new data shows that global CO2 emissions have been flat – if not slightly declining – over the past 10 years. However, falling land-use emissions have counterbalanced rising fossil CO2 emissions, and there is no guarantee these trends will continue in the future.
Supreme Court will review EPA climate authority - The Supreme Court today agreed to weigh in on EPA’s authority to curb carbon dioxide emissions from power plants, paving the way for the high court’s most significant climate brawl in more than a decade. In a short order this afternoon, the justices accepted a set of petitions that asked the court to weigh in on the extent of EPA’s authority under federal law to regulate greenhouse gas emissions from power plants. It is the most significant climate case to reach the Supreme Court since 2007, when the justices ruled in Massachusetts v. EPA that greenhouse gases could be regulated as air pollutants under the Clean Air Act. The Supreme Court’s eventual ruling could throw a wrench in the Biden administration’s plans to propose an updated version of the Obama-era Clean Power Plan. Coal companies and Republican-led states petitioned the court to wade into the long-standing legal battle after the U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit issued a ruling earlier this year that axed the Affordable Clean Energy rule, the Trump-era regulation that gutted the Obama administration’s Clean Power Plan (Greenwire, Jan. 19). The D.C. Circuit’s 2-1 ruling, which came down the day before President Biden took office, gave the new administration a clean slate to draft its own carbon emissions rule for existing power plants. Biden’s EPA has made clear that it does not intend to revive the Obama-era rule, which set out emissions targets that regulated entities have already met a decade ahead of schedule. Few court watchers had expected the Supreme Court to wade into the dispute before EPA finalized its new carbon rule.
High court adds climate change to docket - Over the objections of the Biden administration, the Supreme Court agreed Friday to consider a climate change case that could limit the Environmental Protection Agency's authority to curb greenhouse gas emissions. The court also said it would hear a Republican-led immigration challenge. The earliest the cases will be argued is 2022 and, as is typical, the high court did not explain its decision to take either case. Both are unusual, however, in that the Biden administration either has changed or said it will change the rules at the center of each case. On climate change, the court will review the decision of a federal appeals court thatstruck down one of the Trump administration’s most momentous climate rollbacks. The Biden administration has said it is working on a replacement rule. As a practical matter, the decision to review the ruling in the case will probably make it harder for the Biden administration to move forward with a new rule to regulate planet-warming carbon emissions from the power sector. West Virginia, leading a coalition of 19 mostly Republican-led states, and coal companies told the high court in asking it to take the case that the appeals court's ruling would give EPA almost unlimited authority to regulate in a way that would harm the coal industry. “How we respond to climate change is a pressing issue for our nation, yet some of the paths forward carry serious and disproportionate costs for States and countless other affected parties," the states wrote in urging the court to take the case. “Continued uncertainty over the scope of EPA’s authority will impose costs we can never recoup.” “The federal court in Washington got it wrong, so we have to go back to the Supreme Court to preserve the State’s authority to regulate energy and protect the environment and reject command-and-control micro-managing from federal bureaucrats in Washington DC,” North Dakota Attorney General Wayne Stenehjem said in a Friday statement. The court also will consider whether Republican-led states can take over the defense of a Trump-era rule denying green cards to immigrants who use public benefits like food stamps, after the Biden administration dropped the legal challenges.A federal appeals court in Chicago upheld a lower court order striking down the Trump-era rule nationwide. In March, the Biden administration announced an agreement with the parties and states challenging the rule and also dropped its objections to the appellate decision.
EPA ability to regulate power sector GHG emissions at risk as Supreme Court takes case, analysts say - The Supreme Court's decision to review a lower court's ruling striking down Trump administration regulations governing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from power plants could limit the Environmental Protection Agency's options for regulating the power sector, according to legal observers. The high court on Friday agreed to review a January decision by the U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit to vacate the Affordable Clean Energy (ACE) rule, which the Trump administration used to replace the more stringent Clean Power Plan adopted during the Obama administration. With a decision expected early next summer, the Supreme Court could prevent the EPA from regulating GHG emissions across broad generating fleets as the Obama rule tried to do and instead require it be done on a power plant-by-power plant basis, legal experts said. It comes as the EPA is developing a new plan for cutting emissions from the power sector, the second leading source of carbon emissions behind transportation.In its appeal of the January appeals court decision, a group of states, led by West Virginia, argued the court took too broad a view of the EPA's authority under the Clean Air Act.The dispute centers on the Clean Air Act's section 111(d), which the Obama administration used as the basis for setting fleet-wide emissions reduction requirements under the Clean Power Plan. The states contend the section cannot be used to establish fleet-wide emissions targets.It is "very unusual" for the Supreme Court to review cases when the government is writing a regulation that is at the center of the case, Michael Gerrard, director of the Sabin Center for Climate Change Law at Columbia Law School, said Monday, noting the court broke precedent when it stayed the Clean Power Plan while it was being reviewed by an appeals court. "It's not a good omen for EPA's position," Gerrard said.Possible outcomes include a ruling that the EPA cannot use section 111(d) as contemplated under the Clean Power Plan or the court could invoke the "major questions" doctrine and find that the section is too vague and Congress needed to be more explicit in the authority the section gave the EPA, according to Gerrard.Also, several Supreme Court judges have indicated they are open to reviving the "non-delegation" doctrine, which centers on how much decision-making authority federal agencies have, Gerrard said. The doctrine has only been used twice by the court, both times in 1935, to strike down federal regulations, he said."There are not a lot of good outcomes for the Biden EPA,"
‘The Supreme Court Could Destroy the Planet’: Review of EPA Power Triggers Alarm --As U.S. President Joe Biden prepares for a consequential United Nations climate summit in Scotland, the Supreme Court on Friday provoked widespread alarm by agreeing to review the Environmental Protection Agency’s authority to limit planet-heating pollution.“The Supreme Court could destroy the planet. Pass it on,” tweeted Rep. Earl Blumenauer (D-Ore.) in response to the decision.Republican-led states and coal companies asked the justices to weigh in after the U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit in January struck downthe Affordable Clean Energy (ACE) Rule issued under former President Donald Trump.The day before Biden took office, a divided three-judge panel said that the Trump-era rule—intended to replace former President Barack Obama’s Clean Power Plan, which never took effect—”hinged on a fundamental misconstruction” of a key section of the Clean Air Act that resulted from a “tortured series of misreadings” of the law.The justices will now consider whether that section of the Clean Air Act “clearly authorizes EPA to decide such matters of vast economic and political significance as whether and how to restructure the nation’s energy system.”Though there was some initial confusion about the forthcoming review due to a typo in Friday’s order that was later corrected, climate action advocates and legal experts frantically issued warnings about how a ruling from the high court’s right-wing supermajority may impede the Biden administration’s efforts to combat the climate emergency.“This is the equivalent of an earthquake around the country for those who care deeply about the climate issue,” Harvard University law professor Richard J. Lazarus told The New York Times. The court’s decision threatens “to sharply cut back, if not eliminate altogether, the new administration’s ability to use the Clean Air Act to significantly limit greenhouse gas emissions from the nation’s power plant[s].”The development comes a day after Biden announced a $1.75 trillion watered-down version of the Build Back Better Act that stripped out some climate provisions due to opposition from Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.), one of the corporate-backed, right-wing party members who has held up the package designed to include much of the president’s agenda.
Morrisey preps Clean Power Plan arguments for U.S. Supreme Court fight — West Virginia Attorney General Patrick Morrisey said Tuesday his office is fully prepared to give a robust argument before the U.S. Supreme Court on why it should limit federal regulation of carbon dioxide emissions. Morrisey held a briefing with reporters Tuesday to review several actions the Attorney General’s Office is involved with challenging what he calls federal overreach. The U.S. Supreme Court announced Friday it would hear a challenge by West Virginia and 19 other states against the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. “The biggest case before the U.S. Supreme court now in 2022 is going to be West Virginia v. EPA,”Morrisey said. The states are challenging a ruling by the U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit that blocked the Affordable Clean Energy (ACE) rule, a Trump-era rule that replaced the Clean Power Plan with less stringent regulations on coal-fired power plant emissions. “The D.C. Circuit’s decision is both legally wrong, but it’s also dangerous, which is why we are so grateful that the Supreme Court has agreed to take up the case,” Morrisey said. “We are now beginning our work in earnest.” The Supreme Court previously blocked the Clean Power Plan rule in 2016, first proposed under former president Barack Obama, preventing the rule from taking effect. The rule would have given expansive powers to the EPA to regulate the carbon dioxide emissions of coal-fired power plants. Morrisey led a 27-state coalition to secure the 2016 stay of the Clean Power Plan. Former president Donald Trump scrapped the Clean Power Plan and replaced it with the ACE rule. The D.C. Circuit vacated the ACE rule in January, requiring the EPA to start over from scratch on a new rule. President Joe Biden announced a goal in April of cutting U.S. greenhouse gas emissions by between 50 percent and 52 percent of 2005 levels by 2030.
Rally for climate action calls on Sen. Joe Manchin (WSAZ) - It’s a cause and issue that Morgan King said cannot be put off and still lingers on the hearts and minds of many West Virginians. “West Virginia bears some of the largest brunt of climate disaster,” she said. “We’ve seen natural floods in our history but they will continue to get worse and more severe as time goes on.” She was referring to the 2016 floods that destroyed schools and claimed lives. A rally at the federal courthouse steps in Charleston aims to get Senator Joe Manchin’s attention. She said he cannot ignore or turn his back on the Build Back Better Act moving through the U.S. Senate. “Their messages were all different whether they were talking about social justice or climate action,” said King. “But their message was all the same. The moment is now to take action on climate change and that we can’t wait any longer.” The legislation covers a variety of issues like clean energy and climate investments which would give tax credits to electric companies to switch to renewable or clean energy sources. The West Virginia Climate Alliance put on the event. and people brought signs, dressed in costumes; listening to speakers and music but sharing the same message. “I just want to stress the urgency of the moment to invest in bold and brave climate policies,” said King. The country turns it’s head to Sen. Manchin who holds a deciding democratic vote according to NBC News, who said he does not support the portion of the bill on climate investments. “West Virginians do care about climate,” said King. As national debate continues Mountain State citizens gather to make their voices heard.
WV climate advocates pressure, pray for a resistant Manchin to support Biden budget bill -Angie Rosser smiled while addressing a hundred West Virginia climate advocates huddled together on a rainy afternoon in Charleston Saturday.“I haven’t seen Senator Manchin show up just yet,” Rosser said. “We’re still waiting.” The senator still isn’t with them. Not yet, anyway.Rosser, executive director of the West Virginia Rivers Coalition, and the climate advocates before her in front of the Robert C. Byrd Courthouse had gathered to pressure U.S. Sen. Joe Manchin, D-W.Va., to support the framework of President Joe Biden’s sweeping climate and social spending agenda released two days earlier.The framework would allot $555 billion for climate and clean energy spending, providing what West Virginia proponents say would be an unprecedented boost to a state struggling with a carbon-intensive, undiversified economy.“We need Senator Manchin and Senator Capito,” South Charleston resident and former state Department of Environmental Protection Environmental Advocate Pam Nixon said. “They both are always talking about how they want to help West Virginians and how they’re helping West Virginians. Well, we need them right now to vote for this bill.”But Sen. Shelley Moore Capito, R-W.Va., has united with fellow Republicans against the bill framework, leaving a noncommittal and fossil fuel-defending Manchin as a key holdout vote in the evenly divided Senate.Manchin said in a statement Monday that he was not yet ready to support Biden’s 10-year, $1.75 trillion budget bill, repeating deep concerns that the bill would expand the national debt and exacerbate the nation’s inflation.White House Press Secretary Jen Psaki countered Manchin’s message in a statement Monday, predicting that the bill would reduce the deficit, combat inflation and create jobs. The Congressional Budget Office, which found that the $1.2 trillion infrastructure bill would add $256 billion to the deficit over the next 10 years, has not yet scored the full Biden budget package, which the White House has called the Build Back Better framework. The plan — which the White House said upon its release was “negotiat[ed] in good faith” with Manchin — would provide rebates and tax credits for clean energy shifts that the White House pledged would save families hundreds of dollars in energy costs per year.
Young Climate Activists End Hunger Strike After 14 Days Without Food -Young climate activists with the Sunrise Movement ended a two-week-long hunger strike on Tuesday, pledging to continue their fight by bringing their “fire” to Democratic Sen. Joe Manchin.In a video posted to Twitter, the activists — Kidus Girma, 26, Ema Govea, 18, Julia Paramo, 24, and Abby Leedy, 20 — announced the end to a hunger strike they started on Oct. 20, meant to pressure President Joe Biden and other U.S. government leaders to take stronger action to avert the worst of the climate crisis.Another activist, Paul Campion, 24, ended his strike earlier this week after being sent to the hospital and diagnosed with bradycardia, which develops when one’s heartbeat falls to an abnormally slow rate and can be life-threatening.In their post, the activists noted Biden’s pledge at the global climate summit COP26 to cut fossil fuel emissions in the U.S. in half by 2030 — a promise he’d publicly made months ago.“We are ending our hunger strike to bring the fire to Joe Manchin and other folks in Congress that are more willing to fight for oil and gas billionaires and not for the young people and their communities,” Girma said in the video.Manchin, the Democratic senator from West Virginia, has been an obstacle to several of Biden’s and progressive lawmakers’ more ambitious proposals for the Build Back Better spending package.Manchin, whose home state and personal wealth rely on the coal industry, effectivelyblocked the president’s clean electricity program, which would pay power companies to replace coal and gas plants with renewables, retrofit them with carbon-capture technology, or pay fines.Late last week, Biden announced a compromise that Democrats had reached on the spending bill, which would make historic climate investments — but the legislation wouldstill fall far short of what experts say is needed to keep global warming from reaching catastrophic levels.The hunger strike was extremely physically demanding on the young activists. When HuffPost spoke to Leedy last week, she said they had a lot of fatigue, stomach pain, and muscle and joint aches. Outside the White House, they sat in wheelchairs because they could not walk for long without the risk of falling or fainting from weakness.Last week, Girma was hospitalized overnight for nausea, dizziness and blurred vision but then returned to the strike.
Youth Climate Activists End Two-Week Hunger Strike With Vow to Fight On Youth climate activists ended their two-week hunger strike Tuesday."We are ending our hunger strike to bring the fire to Joe Manchin and other folks in Congress that are more willing to fight for oil and gas billionaires and not for the young people and their communities," Kidus Girma, 26, said in a video on Twitter.The five youth inspired more than 250 to fast in solidarity and took an extreme toll on their bodies and doctors warned they risked permanent damage. Paul Campion, 24, ended his strike earlier this week after being hospitalized with bradycardia, a condition in which the heart beats extremely slowly.As reported by The Washington Post: In recent days, the U.N. global climate summit in Glasgow, Scotland, has tried to advance conversations about the climate crisis and draw important commitments from world leaders.But for two weeks, in the nation's capital, five young people did more than just toss out words and promises. They put their health on the line, starving themselves in hope that their actions would push others to act. After preparing their bodies to go without food, they launched a hunger strike outside the White House on Oct. 20 and vowed not to end it until President Biden and other Democratic lawmakers delivered climate policy that matched "the urgency and the scale" of the crisis.Unfortunately but not surprisingly, the pace of politics moved slower than the pace of their bodies' decline.On Tuesday, two weeks into the hunger strike, the group was forced to end it. The decision, as they describe it, was not an easy one and came only after they faced serious health scares and warnings about the potential repercussions of continuing.14 days ago, we stopped eating. We told @POTUS that our survival depended on his commitment to climate action. \n\nThis morning, he promised a 50% decrease in emissions by 2030. \n\nToday, we end our strike. But our survival still depends on Joe Biden and other Democrats like him.pic.twitter.com/ZQlsy4BdA8
Faith groups increasingly join fight against climate change - Donald Dardar points to a cross marking his ancestors’ south Louisiana burial ground — a place he fears will disappear. He points to the partly submerged stumps of oak trees killed by salt water on land where he rode horses as a kid, and to his mother’s home, gutted by Hurricane Ida. He and his wife have a mission: protecting Pointe-aux-Chenes and other communities at risk in a state that loses about a football field’s worth of wetlands every 100 minutes. For years, Donald and Theresa Dardar have joined forces with the Rev. Kristina Peterson. Working with scientists and members of Pointe-au-Chien and two other tribes, they’ve set out thousands of oyster shells to protect sacred mounds, obtained financing to refill abandoned oil field canals and built an elevated greenhouse to save their plants and medicinal herbs from flooding. “It’s saving what we know that’s going to be destroyed from both the change of the heat and the rising of the water,” said Peterson, the pastor of Bayou Blue Presbyterian Church in Gray, Louisiana, and a former professor of environmental planning at the University of New Orleans. Their vital work to save their bayou home and heritage is part of a broader trend around the world of faith leaders and environmental activists increasingly joining the fight against climate change. From Hindu groups joining river cleanups and Sikh temples growing pesticide-free food, to Muslim imams and Buddhist monks organizing tree-planting campaigns, the movement knows no denominational boundaries but shares as a driving force a moral imperative to preserve what they see as a divinely given environment for future generations. But some of them believe systemic change to protect those most vulnerable to the climate crisis must also come from world leaders meeting at the U.N. climate conference in Glasgow, Scotland. “It’s up to them to step up to the plate and do what they’re supposed to do,” Theresa Dardar said at the tribal center where she handed out supplies to members of her tribe and others who lost their homes after Hurricane Ida hit the small fishing community 80 miles (about 130 kilometers) southwest of New Orleans. “It’s up to you not to just give lip service, but to take action against climate change and sea level rise,” said Dardar, a longtime religion teacher at a local Catholic church and head of the environmental nonprofit Lowlander Center. Pope Francis and dozens of religious leaders recently signed a joint appeal to governments to commit to targets at the Oct. 31-Nov. 12 summit in Glasgow. The summit aims to secure more ambitious commitments to limit global warming to well below 2 degrees Celsius with a goal of keeping it to 1.5 degrees Celsius compared to pre-industrial levels. The event also is focused on mobilizing financing and protecting threatened communities and natural habitats.
Misinformation about climate 'increasing substantially' on Facebook An analysis of tens of thousands of Facebook posts has revealed that the distribution of climate misinformation on Facebook is “increasing quite substantially,” according to a new report released Thursday. The report, conducted by watchdog the Real Facebook Oversight Board and environmental nonprofit Stop Funding Heat, analyzed 195 Facebook pages and found over 48,700 posts spreading climate misinformation. It’s estimated that the posts combined garnered between approximately 818,000 and 1.36 million views each day. Some of the pages and groups researched were named “Climate Change is Crap” and “Climate Realism,” and data shows that interactions with these posts, such as through comments, likes, and shares, has increased by 76.7 percent in 2021. The findings come amid the United Nations’ COP26 climate conference in Glasgow. Though the report shone a light on the spread of misinformation on the platform, it did acknowledge commitments the company has taken to combat climate change.
As countries gather at Glasgow summit, time is running out to fight global warming - Washington Post Editorial - World leaders on Sunday began major international climate negotiations with a seemingly impossible task. Scientists warn that humans must keep global average temperature rise below 1.5 degrees Celsius over the course of this century or risk devastating consequences. The world is far off track.Staying under 1.5 degrees would require cutting planet-warming greenhouse emissions in half by 2030 and reaching “net-zero” emissions by 2050r according to scientific estimates. Net-zero means countries might still produce some carbon dioxide or other greenhouse agents, particularly in certain industrial sectors that are hard to decarbonize, but they would make up for it by removing an equivalent amount of greenhouse emissions from the atmosphere. Unfortunately, after a brief pause during the covid-19 crisis, global emissions are rising once again.Leaders are supposed to bring to Glasgow new 2030 emissions-cutting commitments that will change this course. A U.N. analysis released Oct. 26 projected that if countries met their 2030 Glasgow pledges, the planet would still warm by 2.7 degrees Celsius over the course of this century. That is better than the 3 degrees the United Nations projected previously, but well above 1.5 degrees. Some countries have additionally committed to hitting net-zero emissions by mid-century, which would require effort beyond their stated 2030 goals. The analysis found that if countries hit those mid-century targets, they would cut warming to 2.2 degrees Celsius — an improvement, but still not satisfactory.This leads to several conclusions. First, acting is not futile. Many countries have already changed their emissions trajectories, just not enough. Second, the details of how countries say they will cut emissions are almost as important as the commitments themselves.Some, such as Germany, have written their mid-century net-zero pledges into their laws. Before leaving for Glasgow, President Biden presented Congress with a deal to provide half a trillion dollars in climate investments over the next 10 years, which is part of his $1.75 trillion social spending framework. Others, such as Australia and Saudi Arabia, have provided few or implausible details to back their net-zero pledges. The Saudis talk about moving to a “circular economy” and planting trees, and their commitment appears premised on technology that may not prove practicable. Australia, a major coal producer, wouldalso rely on speculative technological gains and has refused to boost the ambition of its previous 2030 commitments, which fall well short of other developed nations’ end-of-decade goals.And then there is a third conclusion: The international process that began in Paris in 2015 is essential. Countries must meet and meet again, as they will in Glasgow, pressuring each other to make and keep their climate commitments. Just as the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade established regular international summits to drive down trade barriers in the 20th century, the Paris process offers the best chance to keep all major emitting nations moving in what must be a cooperative multilateral project. Countries must pay a price in prestige and respect if they lag behind. Otherwise, the world has little hope of avoiding extremely risky warming.
At Climate Talks, Biden Will Try to Sell American Leadership to Skeptics – NYTimes -President Biden will walk into a riverside event space on Monday to try to convince a gathering of world leaders that the United States, which has pumped more greenhouse gases into the atmosphere than any other nation, is finally serious about addressing climate change and that others should follow its lead. But Mr. Biden is coming with a weaker hand than he had hoped.He has been forced to abandon the most powerful mechanism in his climate agenda: a program that would have quickly cleaned up the electricity sector by rewarding power companies that migrated away from fossil fuels and penalizing those that did not. His fallback strategy is a bill that would provide $555 billion in clean energy tax credits and incentives. It would be the largest amount ever spent by the United States to tackle global warming but would cut only about half as much pollution. And that proposal is still pending; Mr. Biden was unable to bridge divisions between progressives and moderates in his own party to cement a deal before leaving for Glasgow. If the legislation passes, he hopes to pair it with new environmental regulations, although they have yet to be completed and could be undone by a future president. The president traveled to Glasgow from Rome, where the world’s 20 largest economies met and decided on Sunday that they would no longer finance new coal operations overseas. But they failed to agree to set a date for ending the use of the dirtiest fossil fuel at home, with China, India and Australia especially resistant. And that did not bode well for significant progress at the climate talks in Glasgow. The leaders of the wealthy nations did say they were committed to the goal of the 2015 Paris Agreement to keep the rise in average global temperatures to 1.5 degrees Celsius, compared to preindustrial levels. That’s the threshold beyond which scientists say the dangers of global warming grow immensely. But the world is on track to heat up 2.7 degrees Celsius by 2100, and the G20 leaders were unable to agree on concrete steps to change that. Mr. Biden has made climate action a central theme of his presidency, winning praise from diplomats and other leaders, who expressed relief after former President Donald J. Trump had scoffed at climate science and had withdrawn the United States from global efforts to address the crisis. But they remain skeptical, having seen other American presidents promise ambitious action to confront climate change, only to fall short. “Every country has its own challenging legislation process, but ultimately what matters is the outcome,” said Lia Nicholson, a senior adviser to the Alliance of Small Island States, a bloc of vulnerable island nations.= If Mr. Biden lacks a reliable plan for the United States to significantly cut its emissions this decade, it would “send a signal” to other major emitters that America is still not serious, she said. And it would be difficult for Mr. Biden to urge other countries to take more meaningful steps away from fossil fuels, others said.
Biden at UN Climate Summit claims historic progress on efforts — President Joe Biden argued Tuesday that historic progress on addressing global warming was achieved at the U.N. climate conference in Glasgow, Scotland, and expressed optimism for a similar outcome in Washington, where his legislative agenda has been stalled by intra-party disagreements. Speaking in a press conference before boarding Air Force One to return to Washington, Biden highlighted new efforts to stop methane leaks, protect forests, invest in new technologies and spend money on clean energy infrastructure. But his efforts to meet U.S. commitments on climate change with a major domestic spending bill remained held up by legislative maneuvering. “I can’t think of any two days where more has been accomplished on climate than these two days," Biden said. The president contrasted the U.S. posture of leading several major initiatives at the summit with those of Russia and China, who did not send their leaders to Glasgow. “The single most important thing that's got the attention of the world is climate, everywhere, from Iceland to Australia,” Biden said, “and they’ve walked away.” “We showed up. We showed up," Biden said. "And by showing up we’ve had a profound impact, I think, on how the rest of the world is looking at the United States.”5:06 PM
Cop26 has to be about keeping fossil fuels in the ground. All else is distraction - A recent study in the scientific journal Nature suggests that to stand a 50% chance of avoiding more than 1.5C of global heating, we need to retire 89% of proven coal reserves, 58% of oil reserves and 59% of fossil methane (“natural gas”) reserves. If we want better odds than 50-50, we’ll need to leave almost all of them untouched.Yet most governments with major reserves are determined to make the wrong choice. As the latest production gap report by the UN and academic researchers shows, over the next two decades, unless there’s a rapid and drastic change in policy, coal is likely to decline a little, but oil and gas production will keep growing. By 2030, governments are planning to extract 110% more fossil fuels than their Paris agreement pledge (“limit the temperature increase to 1.5C above pre-industrial levels”) would permit.Even nations that claim to be leading the transition mean to keep drilling. In the US, Joe Biden promised to pause all new leases for oil and gas on public lands and in offshore waters. His government was sued by 14 Republican states. Though climate campaigners argue that Biden has many other tools for preventing such leases from being issued, he immediately folded, and his government has now begun the process of auctioning drilling rights in Alaskan waters and the Gulf of Mexico. It’s just the kind of weakness the Republicans were hoping to exploit.Germany has promised to phase out coal production by 2038 (far too late, by the way). Yet it is still developing new deposits. For example, the village of Lützerath in North Rhine-Westphalia, which sits above a thick seam of the filthiest kind of coal – lignite – is currently being destroyed. But if Germany abides by its own rule, the mine will need to be abandoned before it reaches full production. So either homes and forests are being trashed for no reason, or the German government doesn’t intend to honour its promise.In the UK, the government still insists on what it calls “maximising economic recovery” of oil and gas. Last year, it offered 113 new licences to explore offshore reserves. It aims at least to double the amount of fossil fuels that are ready to be exploited here.Every speech and pledge and gesture at Glasgow this week is thistledown, by comparison to the hard facts of new coalmines, oil and gas fields. It’s the mining and drilling that counts: the rest is distraction.The oil corporations have spent many millions of dollars on ads, memes and films to convince us they’ve gone green. But thelatest report on this issue by the International Energy Agency reveals that in 2020 “clean energy investments by the oil and gas industry accounted for only around 1% of total capital expenditure”. There’s scarcely a fossil fuel project on Earth that has not been facilitated by public money. In 2020, according to the International Monetary Fund, governments spent $450bn in direct subsidies for the fossil fuel industry. The IMF accounts the other costs the industry imposes on us – pollution, destruction and climate chaos – at $5.5tn. But I find such figures meaningless: dollars can’t capture the loss of human life and the trashing of ecosystems, let alone the prospect of systemic environmental collapse. One in five of all deaths, according to a recent estimate, are now caused by fossil fuel pollution. On one account, 93% of the world’s coal plants are protected from market forces by special government contracts and uncompetitive tariffs. The UK has reduced its petroleum revenue tax for companies drilling for oil to zero. As a result, our oilfields are likely soon to cost the exchequer more money than it gains. What’s the point?
Biden Calls Methane Reduction Vital to Curbing Climate Change -- President Joe Biden launched an assault on methane Tuesday, declaring that reducing emissions of the heat-trapping gas is one of the most important steps that can be taken to curb global warming.“This isn’t just something we have to do to protect the environment or our future,” Biden said from Glasgow, Scotland, where the United Nations is holding the COP26 climate change summit. Biden called it an enormous opportunity for “all of our nations to create jobs and make meeting climate goals a core part of our global economic recovery as well.”
Biden unveils pledge to slash global methane emissions by 30% -US president Joe Biden has unveiled a multinational plan to control methane, regarded by the administration as the single most potent way to combat the climate crisis in the short term. Leading an alliance of 90 countries, including for the first time Brazil, on Tuesday Biden set out new regulatory measures to limit global methane emissions by 30% from 2020 levels by the end of the decade. The alliance includes two-thirds of the global economy and half of the top 30 major methane emitter countries. China, India and Russia have not joined the pact known as the Global Methane Pledge. The pledge was first announced in September but Biden’s officials have since been working hard to increase the number of signatories and the momentum behind the pledge. The detailed US proposals may prove to be one of the lasting successes of the Cop26 climate conference being held in Glasgow. Many of the regulatory measures do not require Congressional approval, and so give Biden some short-term effective measures to which he can point. The oil and gas industry is reckoned to be responsible for 30% of methane emissions in the US. A new Environment Protection Agency rule that regulates leak detection and repair in the oil industry repealed by Donald Trump will be restored and for the first time applied to new operations in gas, including regulation of natural gas produced as a by-product of oil production that is vented or flared. The Biden team hopes that 75% of all methane emissions will be covered. A huge cattle feedlot in Colorado Cutting methane emissions is quickest way to slow global heating – UN report Read more The other major sources of methane in the US are municipal landfills, thousands of abandoned oil wells and coal mines, and finally agriculture.
Global methane deal signed by 105 countries but missing major emitters FT - More than 100 countries have signed up to a global initiative to crackdown on methane pollution over the coming decade, but a handful of major emitters remain outside the deal sealed at the UN climate summit.Several big contributors to global emissions, including China, Russia and India, are not signatories to the “global methane pledge”, spearheaded by the EU and US.However, the number of countries supporting the initiative has grown from just six members when it was initially announced in September, to 105 at its official launch at the Glasgow world leader talks.The pledge commits countries to reducing their emissions of methane — a potent greenhouse gas emitted from the energy, agriculture and waste sectors — by 30 per cent by the end of the decade from 2020 levels. US president Joe Biden described it as a “game-changer”, as he launched the initiative on Tuesday, alongside new rules on US emissions. “One of the most important things we can do in this decisive decade to keep 1.5 degrees [global warming] in reach is to reduce our methane emissions as quickly as possible,” he said.Methane has 80 times the warming potential of carbon dioxide over a 20-year period, making it key to efforts to tackle global warming. The initiative has estimated that a 30 per cent fall in methane emissions by 2030 would reduce global warming by at least 0.2C by 2050.Temperatures have already risen by an estimated 1.1C since pre-industrial times. “Putting methane at the top of the agenda for these talks is a critical move that will improve the lives of millions at home and around the world by holding off climate chaos,” said Fred Krupp, president of the Environmental Defense Fund. “It will be one of the major success stories of the Glasgow talks.” The agreement coincided with the release of new plans by the White House to crack down on US oil and gas industry pollution from methane.Those rules, proposed by the Environmental Protection Agency, go beyond any previous regulation of methane in the US, forcing operators of both new and existing infrastructure to monitor and fix leaks of the gas. The announcement delivered an environmental victory to President Biden, after his plans to enact extensive climate spending suffered a new setback due toresistance from Joe Manchin, the pivotal centrist West Virginia Democrat.Biden had hoped to pass legislation pumping more than $555bn into tackling climate change ahead of the Glasgow summit. Manchin said on Monday he had lingering “concerns” about the $1.75tn package and he could not guarantee he would vote for the bill.
Energy Transfer CEO on net-zero targets: 'It is insanity' - The head of Energy Transfer LP, the pipeline company that built the Dakota Access line, sees a long future for oil and natural gas despite the transition to cleaner-burning fuels and the coronavirus pandemic’s economic turmoil that slashed oil demand. Kelcy Warren, the executive board chairman of Dallas-based Energy Transfer, rejected the idea that companies’ and governments’ adopting net-zero goals for cutting greenhouse gas emissions would eliminate petroleum use. During a question-and-answer session at a Texas Oil & Gas Association conference in Dallas, Warren was asked about a Dallas Morning News editorial that said net-zero carbon emissions policies would ultimately mean oil was no longer needed. “It is insanity for them to even say such things," Warren said. Oil and gas are used in a range of products, from fertilizer to facial cosmetics, he and others said. “Can you imagine a world without makeup?” he said. Energy Transfer operates about 90,000 miles of pipelines that ship oil and gas from coast to coast. Like the rest of the energy industry, the company took a hit during the pandemic and the recession. Some companies, including international oil companies like BP PLC, now predict that demand for oil will never hit its pre-pandemic levels (Energywire, June 22, 2020). At the same time, leaders from around the world are meeting in Glasgow, Scotland, to negotiate agreements designed to lower heat-trapping emissions caused in large part by the use of fossil fuels to produce electricity, heat homes, and fuel cars and trucks. But Warren, a billionaire energy magnate, expressed with near-certainty that the world isn’t changing for oil and gas companies. “As long as I’m in this business — and hopefully, my son follows my footsteps — I’m worried more about peak supply, truthfully,” he said. “I think the demand will be there.”
Financial firms announce $130 trillion in commitments for climate transition, but practical questions loom. Treasury Secretary Yellen hails new pledge by banks and other firms while many environmentalists remain skeptical of impact. — An international coalition of private financial institutions announced Wednesday that its membership has collectively pledged $130 trillion to convert the global economy to clean energy, as private capital mobilizes to confront the threat of climate change. Despite the eye-popping pledge by many of the world’s biggest banks, climate experts say the commitment leaves unclear whether and how the trillions of dollars will be effectively marshaled into transitioning the world’s energy production away from fossil fuels. The Glasgow Financial Alliance for Net Zero — which represents more than 450 banks, insurers and other asset managers in dozens of countries — unveiled the pledge as world leaders in Glasgow prepared for a day of discussions related to financing clean energy development. The “GFANZ” group is led by Mark Carney, former head of the Bank of England, and Mike Bloomberg, the billionaire financier. Under the pledge, the projects and companies generated by loans given by the financial institutions would be by 2050 “net zero,” meaning they would, in aggregate, not add to carbon emissions. While much attention has been focused on the climate spending of governments around the world, leaders in Glasgow spent Wednesday pointing to the need for private capital to fund clean energy investment. The falling price of renewable energy has increasingly made clean energy projects an attractive investment, and private capital has significantly more capacity to fund these efforts than governments alone can marshal. Officials at the Department of Treasury say they have been focused on unlocking the approximately $2 trillion to $3 trillion they say is necessary in private sector investments to achieve a global net-zero economy, compared to the hundreds of billions nations have pledged in government spending. “As big as the public sector effort is across all our countries, the $100-trillion-plus price tag to address climate change globally is far bigger,” Treasury Secretary Janet L. Yellen said on Wednesday morning in Glasgow at an event devoted to climate finance. “The private sector is ready to supply the financing to set us on a course to avoid the worst effects of climate change.”
Joe Manchin May Not Have Destroyed the World Yet After All --THE 30-SECOND television ad came out way back in 2010, but it just might haunt Democrats — and humanity — for eternity. Joe Manchin, then the governor of West Virginia, struts through the Appalachian woods, a bolt-action rifle in his right hand and what appears to be a paper target over his left shoulder. Touting his endorsement by the National Rifle Association, he rattles off a series of talking points, each punctuated with the jab of a finger: protecting Second Amendment rights; taking on Washington “to get the federal government off of our backs and out of our pockets”; cutting federal spending; repealing “the bad parts of Obamacare”; the fact that he “sued the EPA.” Then he removes a round from the pocket of his hunting jacket, loads his gun, and points it at the target. “I’ll take dead aim at the cap-and-trade bill,” he says. After he pulls the trigger, a close-up on the target reveals that it’s literally the text of the American Clean Energy and Security Act. “’Cause it’s bad for West Virginia!” he says matter-of-factly. One year earlier, at the 15th United Nations Climate Change Conference in Copenhagen, Denmark, the United States committed to reducing its emissions by 42 percent by 2030 if an international agreement could be reached. President Barack Obama left Copenhagen without such an agreement, and his first midterm election came and went without a climate bill. Since then, atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide have reached 415 parts per million for the first time in 3 million years. The last time there was this much carbon in the air, forests grew in Antarctica, the Greenland ice sheet did not exist, and sea levels were more than 50 feet higher than they are today. Our species did not yet walk the earth. The U.N. now describes climate change as “code red for humanity.” Heeding the scientists, the Biden administration has revised the Obama targets upward, setting a goal of reducing U.S. emissions by 50 to 52 percent compared to their domestic peak in 2005 by the end of this decade. And right on cue, Manchin, now a senator, is once again taking aim at key climate policies moving through Congress. According to the New York Times, Manchin killed the Clean Electricity Performance Program, part of President Joe Biden’s Build Back Better plan, which would have been the primary driver of emissions reductions from utilities. The Times reports that a proposed fee on methane emissions, which would reduce the concentration of a potent greenhouse gas with 84 times more short-term warming potential than carbon dioxide, is also in Manchin’s crosshairs. This leaves about $300 billion in tax incentives for clean energy to do most of the heavy lifting of decarbonization in the reconciliation bill. That’s enough, according to some. The Rhodium Group, a research firm founded by former Obama administration officials, says that it is still possible for congressional legislation, federal regulations, state actions, and market forces in combination to cut emissions in half by 2030. Whether or not you and I find this plausible isn’t immediately relevant. It’s our only shot. What is relevant is whether the world leaders assembling for the 26th U.N. Climate Change Conference in Glasgow, Scotland, this week find all of this believable enough that, like Biden and the majority of Democrats in Congress, they are willing to bet their political and economic fortunes on such a story coming true.
Climate change is highlighted as a security issue as NATO leader visits COP26 The secretary general has pushed leaders to do a better job of counting military emissions and to prepare for a warming world — For years, militaries around the world saw protecting their citizens as contradictory to protecting the environment. But the presence of top defense leaders, including NATO’s secretary general, at a U.N. climate change conference on Tuesday suggested that is starting to change. The Tuesday visit from NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg to the Glasgow climate talks was the first time a top alliance leader has come to the gathering since its first round in 1995. The trip came less than two weeks after the Pentagon, the White House and the U.S. intelligence community warned that climate change was a major threat to U.S. security. Stoltenberg said his trip was intended to send a message about the relationship between defense and climate change. “Climate change is a crisis multiplier. It forces people to flee. It increases competition over scarce resources like water and land. It makes the world a more dangerous place,” he said in an interview, noting that even now, military emissions were not part of the climate talks even though they are a significant source of greenhouse gases in most countries.
Opinion | America’s inaction on climate is getting embarrassing – The Washington Post Editorial Board - President Biden is in Glasgow, Scotland, this week trying to inspire the world to address climate change. This follows the Group of 20 countries summit, also billed as an opportunity for major economies to agree on climate-mitigating measures, that ultimately resolved with a weak-sauce voluntary (non-)commitment on coal. Biden blamed the result on a handful of holdouts. “I think you’re going to see we’ve made significant progress and more has to be done,” Biden said Sunday. “But it’s going to require us to continue to focus on what China is not doing, what Russia is not doing and what Saudi Arabia is not doing.”But as bad as those countries have been, remember also what the United States is not doing.For months, Biden and Democratic lawmakers have been trying, and failing, to shepherd a climate deal through Congress. It’s been a Democrat-only endeavor because most Republican voters have decided climate change either isn’t real or not worth addressing.Even the GOP leaders who claim to care about the planet’s future essentially argue that human ingenuity alone will solve the problem and that big government incentives aren’t needed to speed things along. To be fair, it is true that technological progress (in wind and solar, for example) has been faster than predicted. But it’s high risk to assume that, absent further government prodding, the remaining innovations will be developed and deployed before global temperatures reach the point of no return.Meanwhile Democrats are squabbling among themselves.The best climate tool available would be a carbon tax. That would harness market forces to nudge businesses and consumers away from carbon-intensive technologies. It would simultaneously incentivize investors and entrepreneurs to develop new, lower- or zero-carbon alternatives, since they know customers will demand them.In other words, a carbon tax would supercharge that human ingenuity that Republicans rightly praise.on board are three of Biden’s top economic officials: Treasury Secretary Janet L. Yellen, Council of Economic Advisers Chair Cecilia Rouse and CEA member Heather Boushey. The Business Roundtable and even the American Petroleum Institute also support carbon taxes. But Biden effectively shot this strategy down when he (foolishly) pledged not to raise taxes on anyone making under $400,000. So Democrats looked at second- and third-best options, which have now also been ruled out — mostly due to objections from Sen. Joe Manchin III (D-W.Va.), who represents a coal-country state. Democrats have even wobbled on plans to penalize oil and gas operators that leak methane, a highly potent greenhouse gas.
COP26 Is A Global Energy Embarrassment - For 26 futile years, the net-zero maniacs have wasted fuel, energy, and taxpayers' money to bite the hands that provide their food, energy, welfare, and public-sector jobs.Led by E.U. and AUKUS dreamers, they destroy reliable energy from coal, oil, nuclear, gas, and hydro while forcing us to subsidize net-negative dreams like solar, wind, wave-power, CCUS, hot rocks, pumped hydro, and hydrogen. All such speculative ventures should be funded by speculators, not taxpayers.COP-Out-26 illustrates to the realists of China, Russia, India, and Brazil that the West has lost its marbles and is in terminal decline. For Scott Morrison to surrender Australia to these green wolves betrays an army of miners, farmers, truckies, and workers in primary, secondary, and tertiary industries that support him and his Canberra pack.The fakery of COP-Out-26 is well illustrated by the provision of diesel generators to recharge the batteries of 26 electric cars provided for show in Glasgow. But that's OK "because the diesels are run on recycled chip fat." Horses and covered wagons would be more reliable and appropriate, and dried horse manure could cook their fake meat on their green, chip-fired barbeques.Neither E.U. nor AUKUS green dreamers can run their world on energy plans drafted by neurotic schoolgirls, clueless princes, deluded accountants like Ross Garnaut, and serial climate alarmists like David Attenborough.China loves Net-Zero, using its growing coal power to manufacture the wind turbines, solar panels, electric engines, and rare earth batteries for the woke world. But the subsidy tap feeding green energy development in the Western world will run dry. Fake energy will fade away, leaving a continent of jobless people with silent mills, refineries, and factories. Our land will be littered with derelict windmills, decaying solar panels, dead batteries, and sagging transmission lines to be cleaned up in order to restore our land to productive grasslands, crops, and forests. Those huge concrete bases of abandoned wind towers will become permanent obstacles to restoration of this land.
Bill Gates doubts goal of limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees is achievable — Bill Gates appears to have cast doubt on whether the world will be able to keep global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius, providing a sobering reminder of how much work needs to be done if climate goals are to be met. Gates' comments on global warming, made during the first week of the COP26 climate change summit in Glasgow, are a reference to the Paris Agreement, which aims to "limit global warming to well below 2, preferably to 1.5 degrees Celsius, compared to pre-industrial levels."In an excerpt of his interview, which was conducted by U.K. lawmaker Jeremy Hunt for the think tank Policy Exchange, the billionaire seemed skeptical about whether the goal could be met."It's all a matter of degrees, so to speak. That is, you know, hitting 2.5 is better than hitting 3, hitting 2 is better than hitting 2.5," he said. "1.5 … will be very difficult, I doubt that we'll be able to achieve that." The COP26 summit, delayed a year by the coronavirus pandemic, comes six years after the landmark Paris accord was signed by nearly 200 countries. The 1.5 degrees Celsius threshold is a crucial global target because beyond this level, so-called tipping points become more likely. Tipping points refer to an irreversible change in the climate system, locking in further global warming.The Microsoft co-founder also said there was "no comparable feat that mankind has ever achieved to what we need to do for climate change."Gates acknowledged that mankind was "much richer today, far more knowledgeable today — we do have the digital tools that enable us to work on these things." Expanding on his point, he said: "What happened with solar panels, where they were very expensive and now they're cheap, or lithium ion batteries, we need to do that for about six other technologies."
More Than 100 Countries Pledge to End Deforestation by 2030 in First Major COP26 Deal - In the first major deal to come out of the COP26 climate talks, more than 100 countries have pledged to halt and reverse deforestation by 2030. The countries agreeing to the Glasgow Leaders' Declaration on Forests and Land Use include nations with important forest cover like Brazil, Russia, Canada, Indonesia and the Democratic Republic of the Congo as well as major emitters like the U.S. and China. All told, the signatories hold more than 85 percent of the world's forests within their borders. "These great teeming ecosystems — these cathedrals of nature — are the lungs of our planet," UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson, whose nation is hosting the climate talks, said in a statement reported by CNN. "Forests support communities, livelihoods and food supply, and absorb the carbon we pump into the atmosphere. They are essential to our very survival. With today's unprecedented pledges, we will have a chance to end humanity's long history as nature's conqueror, and instead become its custodian." Deforestation is an important source of greenhouse gas emissions because removing trees removes natural carbon sinks and instead releases carbon dioxide into the atmosphere. All told, the degradation and logging of forests contributes around 11 percent of global emissions. Protecting forests is therefore an important part of halting the climate crisis.The deal was announced alongside financial commitments to support it, according to a UK government announcement. These pledges include:
- $12 billion in public finance from 12 nations to support restoration, wildfire prevention andIndigenous communities in developing nations over the next four years.
- $1.5 billion from 12 nations and philanthropists to protect the forests of the Congo Basin, the world's second-largest tropical rainforest.
- $1.7 billion from 14 nations and philanthropists to support Indigenous forest rights by 2025.
In addition, nations and companies that trade in agricultural commodities like soy and palm oil that threaten forests have pledged new actions. Twenty-eight governments responsible for 75 percent of this trade signed a new Forest, Agriculture and Commodity Trade (FACT) Statement to support sustainable trade. Further, 10 companies responsible for more than half of the trade in these commodities promised a plan before the next COP to make their supply chains consistent with limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels.
Green hydrogen gets a major boost from an industry coalition at COP-26 -- In December 2020, six companies joined the United Nations’ Green Hydrogen Catapult coalition with a pledge to build 25 gigawatts of green-hydrogen production capacity by 2026. It was by far the largest target for a technology seen as a vital component of decarbonizing heavy industry and transport. On Thursday, the coalition’s six original members and three new ones nearly doubled that target to 45 GW of electrolyzers being financed by 2026 and commissioned by 2027. Thursday’s announcement at the COP26 climate conference in Glasgow represents a vote of confidence in a near-term path to cost-effective production of hydrogen using clean electricity. Green-hydrogen production costs today are about $5 to $6 per kilogram, compared to $1 to $2 for “gray hydrogen” produced with natural gas. Industry analysts say that if its price drops to about $2 per kilogram, green hydrogen can replace dirtier fuels in a range of hard-to-decarbonize industries such as steel and cement manufacturing, production of chemicals, shipping and aviation. Green-hydrogen advocates and analysts had previously set a 2030 target for hitting that tipping-point price of $2 per kilogram. But with this latest initiative, the deadline is being set sooner.
Blue hydrogen plant touted for Louisiana, but will it reduce carbon emissions? -- Colorless, odorless and highly combustible, hydrogen has been touted as the fuel of the future in a world searching for clean energy. When burned, hydrogen fuel leaves behind only water, unlike the fossil fuels that are largely responsible for pumping more carbon into the atmosphere, making the world hotter, seas higher and storms fiercer. In Louisiana, this seemingly miraculous alternative could be used to decarbonize the industrial sector that is responsible for almost two thirds of the state's greenhouse gas emissions. But the energy produced is only as clean as the methods used to extract hydrogen in the first place. Hydrogen came under new scrutiny in October when Gov. John Bel Edwards announced a Pennsylvania company's plans to build a $4.5 billion "blue" hydrogen plant in Ascension Parish, set to come online in 2026 and provide a low-carbon liquid fuel that could power airplanes, trucks and ships. The governor's endorsement came with assurance that the plant aligned with his ambitious climate goals for Louisiana to achieve net-zero carbon emissions by 2050. Low carbon is not zero carbon, however. In fact, a peer-reviewed study published in August found that blue hydrogen might lead to even more greenhouse gas emissions over its life cycle than simply burning natural gas. That raises questions about how large a role the product should play in the global energy transition, let alone Louisiana's. Environment advocates such as Darryl Malek-Wiley, a senior organizer for the Sierra Club’s Delta chapter in New Orleans, worry the fuel acts as an "expensive distraction," delaying efforts to halt the use of fossil fuels. "It's a shell game," Malek-Wiley said. "It doesn't work. Carbon capture and blue hydrogen are another effort to continue drilling for natural gas and not work toward a clean environment."
Project Tundra carbon capture effort comes before state decision-makers - A North Dakota board is nearing an agreement with Minnkota Power Cooperative to inject carbon dioxide produced by an Oliver County coal-fired power plant into state property underground.The 640 acres of state-owned land is a small portion of the area where a plume of carbon dioxide would form in rocks near Milton R. Young Station as part of the co-op’s “Project Tundra,” said Shannon Mikula, special projects counsel and geologic storage lead for Minnkota. The company plans to capture 90% of the plant’s carbon emissions to inject down one of several wells more than 4,000 feet deep. Much of the rest of the rock cavities meant to permanently store the carbon dioxide belong to private landowners.The state Board of University and School Lands “is 100% supportive of this effort,” Land Commissioner Jodi Smith said. The five-member Land Board chaired by the governor discussed the agreement at a meeting this week in a session closed to the public. The board plans to work out a few lingering issues in the coming days, Smith said. The terms of the pending agreement are not yet public. Meanwhile, Minnkota is gearing up for a hearing before the North Dakota Oil and Gas Division next week as it seeks permits for underground storage. The hearing will be the second of its kind to take place in North Dakota after the division held one in August for the Red Trail Energy ethanol plant’s carbon capture project near Richardton.North Dakota was the first state to assume jurisdiction from the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency for permitting underground carbon dioxide storage, and a host of projects are expected to come before state regulators in future years. Critics of carbon capture say the emerging technology for coal plants is unproven and costs can exceed expectations, while supporters say it’s needed to address climate change. Advocates in North Dakota see it as a way to keep coal afloat as the industry faces competition from natural gas and renewable power.Both the state and federal government have contributed money to Project Tundra's research phases. Financing for the $1 billion project itself is still in the works. Minnkota was expected to apply for assistance through the Clean Sustainable Energy Authority, a new state program meant to provide loans and grants to low-emissions projects.
ERCOT OKs 2.6 GW of gas, storage, renewables capacity for commercial operation --Resources totaling 2.6 GW of capacity, encompassing natural gas-fired, battery storage, solar and wind generation, were approved for commercial operation in October in the Electric Reliability Council of Texas and another 1.8 GW neared commercial operation in the month. Such developments would tend to weaken winter power prices. The development of dispatchable capacity – 510 MW of gas-fired generation and more than 354 MW of battery storage – would tend to address the Public Utility Commission of Texas' repeated concern that ERCOT needs more dispatchable generation to be able to back up all of the renewable power being added to the state's fleet. With October's additions, announced in the ERCOT Generation Interconnection Status Report, released late Nov. 1, the grid operator has 28.2 GW of wind nameplate capacity, 7.1 GW of solar capacity and 823.4 MW of battery storage in commercial operation. Mid-February's deadly storm, which left about 4 million Texas customers without electricity, some for days, resulted in unprecedentedly high natural gas prices, which has tended to drive up winter power forwards, according to the S&P Global Platts M2MS Forward Curve. However, since mid-September, the relative normalization of gas storage positions has resulted in steadier gas and power prices, albeit at higher levels than in August. Since September 14, Houston Ship Channel January-February forwards have ranged from a low of $5.422/MMBtu Sept. 22 to a high of $6.885/MMBtu Oct. 5, and settled at $5.886/MMBtu on Nov. 1. For the same period, ERCOT North Hub January-February packages have ranged from a low of $74.60/MWh Sept. 23 to a high of $94.50/MWh Oct. 5, and settled around $78.60/MWh on Nov. 1.The 510-MW gas turbine project approved for commercial operation in October was ProEnergy Services'Topaz Power Plant in Galveston County, near Houston. However, the addition of this dispatchable capacity may be partially offset by Austin Energy's Nov. 1 announcement of plans to retire its 420-MW gas-fired Decker Creek power plant effective March 31. This retirement would occur unless ERCOT deemed the facility needed to maintain grid reliability, in which case ERCOT would have to negotiate reliability-must-run payments to cover operations and maintenance costs.
Governor DeWine, Ohio EPA Announce $7.5 Million in Grants to Improve Air Quality -- Ohio Governor Mike DeWine and Ohio EPA Director Laurie A. Stevenson announced that $7.5 million in grants will be awarded to seven entities to reduce nitrogen oxide emissions from diesel vehicles and equipment. Nitrogen oxide emissions are significant contributors to ground-level ozone pollution. “By replacing older diesel equipment with new, cleaner models, we will reduce pollution and help make a healthier environment for everyone,” said Governor DeWine. “This is a great opportunity to improve local air quality and I encourage governments and businesses that are running aging diesel equipment in urban areas to consider applying for a grant next year.” Ohio EPA estimates this year’s grants will remove 33 tons of nitrogen oxide and 16 tons of other air pollutants annually. “We are leveraging these funds to help address large emission sources of nitrogen oxide, like locomotives and diesel cargo handling equipment, resulting in a significant reduction in pollutants, especially in urban areas,” said Director Stevenson. The grants are funded from dollars allocated to Ohio from the settlement of an enforcement action taken against Volkswagen and its affiliated companies by U.S. EPA and the state of California for violations under the Clean Air Act. The grant program is investing $75 million over 10 years to reduce nitrogen oxide pollution in Ohio. This is the fourth year for the program. Selection considerations were given for specifically targeted reduction categories (e.g., locomotives, airport ground-support equipment, and port cargo handling equipment) that would produce the largest reduction of nitrogen oxide emissions for the grant dollars invested.
Larry Fink fears for the energy transition, warns of massive 'market arbitrage'— Larry Fink, chair and CEO of BlackRock, says the so-called energy transition toward greener power has to be radically rethought and blasted oil firms for selling out to private companies. Speaking at the Green Horizon Summit chaired by CNBC's Julianna Tatelbaum during the COP26 climate conference in Glasgow, Scotland, Fink praised public companies for increasing their reporting of emissions but criticized oil firms for selling parts of their businesses to private investors, and said it could create huge market arbitrage. "We can't just ask public companies to move forward without the rest of society. It's going to create the biggest capital market arbitrage. We're seeing that more hydrocarbons have been sold to private companies in the last few years than almost any time ever. That doesn't change the world at all. It actually makes it, the world even worse, because it moves from public disclosed companies to opaque private enterprises. So, the mission is failing if that's all you're doing," he stated. Arbitrage refers to market inefficiencies that allow investors or companies to profit. VIDEO08:37 COP26: Can a climate change conference save the planet? Some oil firms are selling their more polluting assets to private companies, creating more of a green narrative for shareholders. But those assets still exist, and are less transparent in private hands, Fink said. "That is not changing to a net-zero world. That's window dressing, that's greenwashing," he stated. One solution, Fink said, is to create new financial vehicles for the spin-off of oil assets, with an energy company then committing all of the proceeds of the sale to green technology. "We need to create these types of vehicles like we've done during [the] financial crisis with banks, we need to create new vehicles, new thought processes," he said. BlackRock, the world's largest money manager, is "working with them, not against them," in terms of its relationship with oil firms, Fink said. "The key for our hydrocarbon companies, they need to rapidly move towards a more decarbonized business model. But at the same time, they are the number one purveyor of energy, of gas and oil, in a society that still is totally dependent on that," he acknowledged.
Proposed US clean energy tax breaks could be transformational, but risks loom | S&P Global Market Intelligence -- Renewable energy developers are cheering the U.S. House of Representatives' proposal to expand and extend tax credits for clean power projects as part of a new budget reconciliation package. But to receive the full benefits of the credits, utilities and other project owners would need to meet domestic content and labor requirements that industry members say could be tough to satisfy. And large generators face potential headwinds from a proposed corporate alternative minimum tax that could eliminate the use of certain deductions beneficial to renewable energy development. House Democrats released the nearly 1,700-page Build Back Better Act on Oct. 28. The $1.75 trillion budget reconciliation package pared back total spending from an earlier version of the legislation, a response to moderate Democrats' concerns about the initial bill's $3.5 trillion price tag. The proposal released Oct. 28 still contains extensive clean energy tax provisions. The legislation would bolster and extend existing tax credits for wind and solar power by five years, reflecting earlier legislation from the House Committee on Ways and Means. In addition, standalone energy storage projects and large new transmission lines would be able to qualify for federal investment tax credits, while nuclear plants could receive a new zero-emission production tax credit.In a nod to the U.S. Senate's tax-writing committee, the new bill would transition to providing technology-neutral tax credits for zero-emission electric facilities for a five-year period running through 2031, or until power sector emissions fall to a certain amount. The bill would also allow clean energy developers to claim the value of the credits through direct payments, opening up those incentives to a wider range of entities, including those that are tax-exempt. House Democrats will present an amended version of the new Build Back Better Act to the House Committee on Rules on Nov. 3, with a hearing on the legislation to occur the same day, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., said in a dear colleague letter. If the House passes the bill, it will head to the Senate, where the legislation could undergo further changes. The legislation "is the largest federal investment in clean energy in American history," American Clean Power Association CEO Heather Zichal said.
Sen. Sherrod Brown wants Ohio to help with his Sustainable Skies Act | WVXU - The manufacturing and use of sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) are taking off slowly. Will the pace be enough to help clean up the air?One recent success is a four hour Rolls-Royce flight using 100% biofuel, a combination of cooking oil and animal fat used in restaurants. Most other green flights mix a smaller percentage of SAF with regular jet fuel.Ohio Senator Sherrod Brown wants to increase the biofuel output, which was 2 million gallons in 2018 to 3 billion in 2030. He thinks the Sustainable Skies Act he’s sponsoring will help. It’s part of President Biden’s "Build Back Better" bill and offers tax credits for each gallon of SAF used in place of traditional airplane fuel.Wednesday, Brown was joined on a news conference call by GE Aviation’s chief engineer in support of the legislation. Chris Lorence is all for the tax credits, but says there are some obstacles. “We believe at GE Aviation we can overcome any technology obstacles for the transition to SAF and we believe this is really more about markets, availability and pricing," he says.GE and its longtime partner SAFRAN pledged in June to manufacture an engine that would lower emissions by 20%. Brown says U.S. airlines have committed to go net zero by 2050. “To meet that goal they need the ultra-efficient engines made in Evendale by GE," he says. "They also need cleaner fuel and I want to see that made in Ohio.”According to GreenBiz, major airlines are already signing deals with renewable fuel companies to use a greener product.There is still research to be done. The University of Dayton became the first toprescreen small amounts of alternative jet fuel in 2019. That’s important because researchers can give the green light to tweak a composition or product to make it safer.Some say the transition to cleaner fuel can’t come soon enough. A new study by the University of North Carolina finds people who live near airports continue to die as they breathe in the unhealthy air. Researchers say Ohio is one of the six states most affected.
Ohio’s solar project queue on pace to surpass coal capacity this decade - The recently announced retirement plans for one of Ohio’s largest coal-fired power plants puts the state’s planned solar project queue on track to surpass the state’s coal generating capacity before the end of the decade.Coal power still dwarfs solar in Ohio despite a decade of steep decline for the former. As of last year, the state was home to more than 10,600 megawatts of coal generating capacity, compared to about 112 megawatts for solar.Utilities and other generators continue to phase out coal generation due to worsening economics and impending federal regulations. The state’s remaining coal fleet without announced closing dates is now projected to shrink to about 5,000 MW by or before the end of 2028.Meanwhile, the state has seen a flurry of applications to build large solar projects. The Ohio Power Siting Board last month had 7,783 MW of solar projects in its regulatory pipeline, almost all of which had applications pending before the effective date of a new siting law that is expected to complicate future projects.“Increases in the cost of coal extraction, coupled with the growth of cheaper alternative energy assets, have created a pointed coal-to-renewable energy shift,” said Gilbert Michaud, an assistant professor at Loyola University Chicago’s School of Environmental Sustainability.The shift also is important for addressing climate change. “The continued decommissioning of coal-fired power plants in Ohio, and the increase in solar energy activity in particular, has become a significant development toward decarbonization goals,” Michaud said.The projections are notable in part because Ohio lawmakers have spent several years putting a thumb on the scale in favor of fossil fuels. Legislation has gutted the state’s renewable energy standards, subsidized old coal-fired power plants, and erected new hurdles for siting solar and wind projects, but not fossil fuels. Some of the new siting law’s more restrictive provisions don’t apply to projects whose applications had already been complete and in the grid operator’s queue.
Although solar panels are multiplying, Maine towns start to halt their construction - A handful of local governments in Maine have begun halting construction of solar panel arrays as the installations slowly become the norm in the state. Some 3,185 installations are in place across Maine, according to the Solar Energies Industry Association. In Penobscot County, Versant Power has a raft of pending requests from developers to connect proposed solar projects to the grid. It’s an industry that one energy lawyer called “booming.” But local governments have started to become concerned about the eventual costs of decommissioning the solar panels and a lack of policies in place governing that process. Ellsworth is the latest municipality to temporarily ban solar panel arrays,citing concerns about overdevelopment. Dixmont voted to temporarily halt permitting for commercial installations earlier this month, after discovering that there was no policy in place for what to do when solar panel arrays reached the end of their useful lives. Augusta did so in August. Because solar panels often change ownership several times during their lifetime, Dixmont officials said they were worried about the owner of the land left having to foot the bill for decommissioning them and not having the means to do so. In that case, they feared the town could be left with the bill.
New Sharon voters set limits on commercial solar energy systems - — By a vote of 381-214, voters Tuesday approved the New Sharon Solar Energy Systems Ordinance. The ordinance is a means to regulate commercial solar energy systems in New Sharon. Commercial solar energy systems — small, medium and large scale — can already set up shop in town, with or without the ordinance. However, Town Clerk Pamela Adamsclarified that this ordinance directly addresses the appropriate uses for solar energy and creates “boundaries and limits” for the kinds of permits the town can approve. The ordinance does not apply to residential solar energy systems and, as a result, they are exempt from needing approval or permitting. The ordinance is for solar only, a change from one first proposed on Sept. 15, 2020, that would have covered all energy systems. Action on that ordinance was tabled when new information was received the day prior to the special meeting. “This is a totally different ordinance (from the general energy-systems ordinance),” Code Enforcement Officer Jon Arnold said Thursday. “We broke it down, made it more feasible, more basic.” Things such as setbacks, right of ways, lot coverage, and other items were changed in this ordinance, he said.
Voters pull the plug on Central Maine Power's transmission line - Maine voters delivered a decisive rebuke Tuesday to the state's largest utility, Central Maine Power, when they halted construction of its $1 billion transmission corridor through western Maine in a vote of 60% to 40%, as of early Wednesday morning. The focus now shifts from a record-shattering $90 million ballot campaign to its anticipated legal challenges. For more than two years, CMP and its affiliated campaign committees spent more than $42 million trying to convince voters that the corridor project delivering hydropower from Canada is as much in Maine's interest as it is CMP's. But even with a nearly $22 million campaign assist from Hydro-Quebec, the electricity supplier for the project, and endorsements from Democratic Gov. Janet Mills and U.S. Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm, voters were not persuaded. For its part, CMP is blaming the owners of fossil fuel plants in New England that could lose some revenues if the New England Clean Energy Connect, as it's called, goes through. Those companies spent nearly $30 million to support the campaign to kill the plan project.
CMP continues work on corridor the day after Mainers voted to stop it - Central Maine Power Co. was back to work on its $1 billion hydropower corridor Wednesday, the day after Mainers gave a resounding “yes” to a referendum aimed at stopping the transmission line. NECEC Transmission, the CMP aìliate that is building the corridor, is working on the corridor today in the most controversial new section being cleared between The Forks and the Canadian border, the existing sections of the 145-mile corridor and a section from Windsor to Wiscasset, Thorn Dickinson, president and CEO of the company, said. The immediate question after Election Day was whether the company will continue to push ahead the corridor and what that says to Maine voters. CMP made its stance on that clear on Wednesday, inëaming corridor opponents who could escalate a legal êght with the utility over the project “It isn’t a surprise to me that they are working this morning,” Tom Saviello, a Wilton selectman and corridor opposition leader, said Wednesday. “That’s an insult to the people of Maine who voted overwhelmingly against the corridor last night.” In a separate move, parent company Avangrid Inc. was quick to êle a lawsuit on Wednesday challenging the citizens’ initiative and calling it “unlawful.” CMP and aìliates could also make a “vested rights” argument, saying it has been actively developing the project in good faith and should be allowed to proceed, legal experts have said. Opponents called on CMP to stop all construction, but Saviello acknowledged it is diìcult for either side to act immediately, since the legislation resulting from the referendum will take eéect 30 days after Mills publicly announces the result of the ballot measure.
Corridor opponent asks Maine to halt construction after CMP’s referendum loss — An group opposed to Central Maine Power Co.’s $1 billion hydropower corridor asked the state to halt construction on Thursday, less than two days after Maine voters resoundingly rejected the project.The move opens up another front in a complicated legal battle over the corridor. CMP and its affiliates have been at work on the project since a Tuesday election in which 59 percent of Maine voters passed a ballot measure aiming to kill the 145-mile transmission line that would bring Quebec hydropower to the regional grid to fulfill a Massachusetts clean-power request.The Maine Department of Environmental Protection is considering whether or not to pull its authorization of the corridor after a lower-court judge ruled in August that the state had no authority to grant CMP a lease to public land in rural Somerset County. On Wednesday, CMP’s parent company, Avangrid, filed a lawsuit saying the voter-approved law is unconstitutional.But the anti-corridor Natural Resources Council of Maine asked the department on Thursday to stop construction, citing the likely delay in sorting out the regulatory and legal case around the lease as well as the two months it will take for the new law to go into effect. “It would be more than a dereliction of duty to to allow continued destruction of the North Maine Woods for another two months until the law becomes effective,” James Kilbreth, a lawyer for the Natural Resources Council of Maine, wrote in his filing.
Judge delays construction on parts of $500 mln U.S. power line (Reuters) – A federal choose in Madison, Wisconsin has quickly prohibited construction on parts of the Wisconsin section of a deliberate 102-mile Iowa-to-Wisconsin power line.In a Monday ruling, U.S. District Judge William Conley enjoined the start of construction work, scheduled for later this month, on sections of the $500 million Cardinal-Hickory Creek Undertaking on or close to federal waters in Wisconsin.Conley held that the plaintiffs, environmental teams that declare construction of the line was improperly approved, are more likely to endure irreparable environmental hurt ought to work equivalent to forest clearing begin this month as deliberate. The federal waters alongside the line’s route embody greater than 100 wetlands, the plaintiffs have mentioned. The above-ground, high-voltage electrical line is a joint venture of the American Transmission Co LLC, ITC Midwest LLC and Dairyland Power Cooperative. The businesses say it’ll enhance electric-system reliability. The co-owners introduced on Monday, earlier than the ruling, that they might start construction of the line in Wisconsin this week.Construction on its smaller Iowa section started in April, in accordance with the businesses. The venture is scheduled to come back into service in December 2023, they are saying. The utilities, represented by Perkins Coie, mentioned in an announcement that the court docket ruling “only applies to a small portion of the project in Wisconsin,” and in consequence they will “continue project construction in Wisconsin in areas not affected by the preliminary injunction.”
Massachusetts power outages plummet as utility companies run 'massive response effort' - The power outages along the South Shore and Cape Cod plunged over the last few days, as Eversource and National Grid work around the clock to get the lights back on. The peak of 500,000 power outages last week was sliced down to around 1,000 Massachusetts customers in the dark Sunday evening. The Massachusetts Emergency Management Agency power outage map showed 1,123 outages as of 5:30 p.m., with most of the outages in Plymouth County and more scattered in Barnstable County and Bristol County. There were 777 Eversource outages and 346 National Grid outages. “In response to the extensive and widespread damage across southeastern Massachusetts caused by last week’s nor’easter, we mobilized a massive response effort of nearly 2,000 line and tree crews,” an Eversource spokesman said in a statement, noting that some workers came from as far away as Canada, Florida, Kentucky and Tennessee. The personnel “worked around the clock to restore power to our customers,” the spokesman added. Throughout the course of its storm response, Eversource restored power to more than 480,000 customers, including those who lost power more than once. “Our dedicated employees will continue to work around the clock on a small number of outages in some of the hardest-hit communities and the additional outages that have been caused by high winds yesterday and other scattered weather,” the spokesman said. “Additionally, our crews will continue cleanup efforts, removing trees and other debris, and will complete an examination of the electric system that will continue to ensure it is safe and reliable.” National Grid workers have also restored power to hundreds of thousands of customers in Massachusetts and Rhode Island since the storm began Tuesday night. “Our crews remain in the field today, working to complete full restoration to customers impacted from last week’s storm,” National Grid said in a statement. “As of Saturday night, we had reached 99% of those impacted in MA and will be on the job until all are restored.”
Interior seeks to lease Wilmington-area offshore wind farm -The Department of the Interior announced Thursday that it is forging ahead with the lease of a nearly 200-square mile portion of the Atlantic Ocean off the Brunswick County coastline for the development of offshore wind.On Nov. 1, the Department of the Interior will publish a notice in the Federal Register proposing the lease sale of a large portion of the Wilmington East Wind Energy Area, starting a 60-day public comment period that will last until January 3. When completed, the Wilmington East area could generate more than 1.5 gigawatts of electricity, which Interior said is enough for more than 500,000 homes. By comparison, Duke Energy’s natural gas-powered Sutton Plant near Wilmington has a capacity of 625 megawatts, less than half the offshore wind area’s potential. “It’s a continuation of the process that (the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management) promised a couple of months ago during the task force meeting and just brings us one step closer to more wind options for North Carolina,” Katharine Kollins, president of the Southeastern Wind Coalition, told The News & Observer, referencing a regional wind task forcecoordinated by the federal agency.President Joe Biden has announced a national target of 30 gigawatts of offshore wind built by 2030, while N.C. Governor Roy Cooper earlier this year announced state targets of 2.8 gigawatts of offshore wind by 2030 and 8 gigawatts by 2040.
Senate aims bill at preventing all-electric building codes (AP) — Pennsylvania’s state Senate on Wednesday approved legislation that would bar municipalities in the nation’s No. 2 natural gas state from adopting building codes that prohibit gas hookups or otherwise restricting utility service based on the energy source. The Republican-penned bill passed, 35-15, and heads to the state House of Representatives for consideration there. The chamber approved it without debate, with six Democrats joining all 29 Republicans in favor of it.The bill defends a homegrown energy source in Pennsylvania as some states, cities and counties elsewhere begin looking at all-electric building codes that exclude gas infrastructure as a way to fight climate change and accelerate progress towards a carbon-free electricity grid.The vast Marcellus Shale reservoir beneath Pennsylvania is the nation’s most prolific natural gas reservoir, and the state has helped subsidize the build out of gas infrastructure to help the industry find new customers.
Drone at Pennsylvania electric substation was first to 'specifically target energy infrastructure,' according to federal law enforcement bulletin - A drone that crashed near a Pennsylvania power substation last year was likely meant to damage or disrupt the electric equipment, according to a federal law enforcement bulletin obtained by CNN. The July 2020 incident is the first known case of a "modified unmanned aircraft system likely being used in the United States to specifically target energy infrastructure," states the October 28 memo from the FBI, Department of Homeland Security and the National Counterterrorism Center. That statement is based on a review of drone incidents dating back to 2017. No damage was done to the electricity supply or equipment, according to the memo. It is still unclear who was responsible for operating the drone that crashed on a rooftop near the unidentified substation. Federal officials say they are distributing the intelligence bulletin now to state and local officials to raise awareness about the incident and the general threat of drones to critical infrastructure. Whoever modified the drone likely tried to create a "short circuit to cause damage to transformers or distribution lines, based on the design and recovery location," the intelligence memo says. The drone "appeared to be heavily worn, indicating it was flown previously and was modified for this single flight."
Former US Rep. Bill Flores named to ERCOT board - Former U.S. Rep. Bill Flores of Bryan has been named to the board of the Electric Reliability Council of Texas, or ERCOT, and will serve as the agency's vice chair. He is the former CEO of a Houston-based natural gas and oil company and graduated from Texas A&M University. ERCOT operates the power grid that covers most of Texas.
Bitcoin mining giants Bitdeer, Riot Blockchain in Rockdale, Texas -- In this rural Texas town of 5,600 people, two of the biggest names in bitcoin mining are battling it out for market share and cheap electricity. These rivals also happen to be next-door neighbors. Bitdeer – a firm spun off from Chinese bitcoin mining giant Bitmain – is four-tenths of a mile down the road from Riot Blockchain, one of the biggest publicly traded mining companies in America. Both are tenants of property once occupied by aluminum maker Alcoa, but they share little else in common. Riot's Whinstone mine is run by a team that thrives on transparency and throws open its doors to media on a daily basis, while Bitdeer is aloof, steeped in mystery, and definitely not keen on visitors. "In this industry, everyone's like, 'Ooh, top secret, we have proprietary information!' Well, actually, you don't," Whinstone CEO Chad Harris told CNBC. "You take a cable, you plug it into a machine that somebody else built, you turn it on, you add a pool, and you mine bitcoin." Whinstone CEO Chad Harris takes CNBC on a tour of the largest bitcoin mine in North America. Why Rockdale Located an hour northeast of Austin, Rockdale looks like classic rural America. But to the more discerning eye, Rockdale offers all the fixings of a bitcoin miner's dream home: Crypto-friendly politicians, large swaths of land, previously abandoned industrial infrastructure ripe for repurposing, and the ability to plug into Texas' power grid.
Bitcoin's Astounding Environmental Cost -- There's an interesting article in Fortune on the true environmental costs of using Bitcoin as a medium of exchange to replace cash, debit cards, credit cards, and other commonly-used payment methods. Given the enormous amounts of electricity needed for bitcoin mining, it is perhaps no surprise that estimates on the high end find it to be an unsustainable proposition. So much for using Bitcoin for everyday transactions?The [MoneySuperMarket] report states that each Bitcoin transaction consumes 1,173 kilowatt hours of electricity. That's the volume of energy that could "power the typical American home for six weeks," the authors add. The Bitcoin mining that enables a purchase, sale or transfer, it posits, uses a slug of electricity that costs $176. That number is based on an average worldwide cost per kWh of 9.0 cents over the past 12 months.What if we lower the estimated price per kilowatt hour to 5.0 cents? Some argue that figure is more in line with global energy costs. I am afraid that does little to make Bitcoin any more sensible as a means to transact given the costs of generating these coins still:So let's reduce the MoneySuperMarket number from 9 cents per kWh to the 5 cents favored by de Vries. That would put the average cost of producing a coin at around $19,000, which looks reasonable (and underscores the industry's gigantic profitability as price hovers at over three times that level). At 5 cents, the electricity cost per transaction would fall from $176 to roughly $100. For every transaction you make with Bitcoin, that's what you would be paying in electricity costs. When the likes of Visa and Mastercard can process these sorts of transactions for cents, it puts Bitcoin's true costs into sharp relief. The argument that ever-lower cost locations for mining these coins is a solution has its limits too, with these destinations now discouraging Bitcoin mining as power outages arise as a result. The global movement of Bitcoin miners eventually becoming persona non grata is a very interesting story in itself, but I digress... Bitcoin's drawback is that electricity is finite, and what Bitcoin uses, a family or a business can't use. In several nations, Bitcoin mining is imposing severe stress on the grid. Kazakhstan, one of world's leading crypto mining hubs and a top destination for producers displaced by the Chinese lockdown, is suffering blackouts caused by the industry's sudden explosion within its borders. Its government is limiting producers to a fraction of the electricity they're now deploying. Iran has also suffered severe shortages that's led to ejecting producers, and tiny Abkhazia is raiding mines––many of them illegal––to forestall an energy crisis. The bottom line is that Bitcoin mining in its current form is unsustainable, and so is its use as a medium of exchange.
Bitcoin Mining And Semiconductor Shortage Are on a Collision Course - - Semiconductors are the oil of the digital age. Every nation is going to need their own national security plan around semiconductor supply reliability in the way that they have plans around energy reliability. It is a reality that cannot be put off acknowledging any longer. So, what does any of this have to do with Bitcoin? ASICs. Mining hardware is useless if you don’t have the energy to power it, but energy to power miners is also useless if you don’t have miners themselves. As far as 7-nm-or-under fabrication capacity goes (the cutting edge), the only games in town are Intel, Samsung and TSMC. This leaves these companies with a lot of political weight to throw around in terms of manufacturing cutting-edge ASICs. The dynamics of who can and can’t produce semiconductors in general is already coming to the forefront of politics as nations realize the importance of minimizing reliance on foreign actors to maintain such capacity. It is only a matter of time before how these issues relate to Bitcoin mining starts to come to their attention as well. What form will that take? Who knows. Maybe it acts as another accelerant for larger nations to expand their domestic fabrication capacity. Maybe nations with capacity ban exports of miners to enemy nations. Maybe nations engage in espionage to acquire intellectual property relating to cutting-edge fabrication techniques. Whatever form the realization takes when it happens, it will happen, and the effect on the mining ecosystem will be interesting to say the least.
G20 Nations Agree to New Limits on Coal-Burning Power Plants - Oct. 31, — Having powered the industrial era, coal made many of the Group of 20 countries what they are today: the world’s 20 largest economies. On Sunday, leaders from the G20, who today represent the world’s biggest coal producers and consumers, agreed to take the first steps to weaken coal’s future, though they fell far short of what is necessary to sufficiently address climate change. In a joint communiqué released at the end of their summit in Rome, the G20 leaders said they would end the financing of coal power plants overseas, but the statement included no new commitments on curbing the use of coal domestically.The leaders pledged to “pursue efforts” to limit the global average temperature rise to within 1.5 degrees Celsius by the end of the century, compared to preindustrial times. But the world is currently not on track to achieve that goal, which scientists say is necessary to avert the worst effects of climate change. This stark fact hangs over the Glasgow climate summit, raising fears that the summit will yield similar half-steps. Beyond vague if well-meaning targets, what matters are concrete measures that countries are taking to rein in the emissions of planet-warming gases more quickly. To actually achieve the 1.5 degree target, countries in the group would have to strengthen their national climate targets. The existing country commitments put the world on a path to far higher levels of warming, with the global average temperature rising by 2.7 degrees Celsius by 2100, which would put the world on a path to far more harrowing heat waves, fires and flooding. Nor did the G20 agree to specific financial arrangements to encourage emerging economies to make the energy transition away from fossil fuels. Climate advocates said it’s imperative to deliver tangible new commitments in Glasgow. “If the G20 was a dress rehearsal,” Jennifer Morgan, executive director of Greenpeace International said, “then world leaders fluffed their lines.” “Their communiqué was weak, lacking both ambition and vision, and simply failed to meet the moment,” Ms. Morgan said. In their statement, the G20 leaders said, “Keeping 1.5 within reach will require meaningful and effective actions and commitment by all countries, taking into account different approaches, through the development of clear national pathways.” The communiqué also added an important caveat for big emerging economies like India that have pressed for money and technology to make the transition away from coal: It said that reaching this goal will require “different approaches,” as well as “international cooperation and support, including finance and technology.” The communiqué was lacking in specific financial commitments, which are necessary to persuade developing countries to make the energy transition, especially the phasing out of coal.
COP26: 20 countries announce plans to end funding for new fossil fuel projects - — The United States and 20 other countries announced Thursday that starting next year they would stop spending tax dollars to support international fossil fuel projects, a move the group said would divert $18 billion a year toward clean energy. The pledge comes just a day after even more nations agreed to restrict public financing for coal power.The decision to curb public spending on fossil fuels — which came as negotiations were underway at a major U.N. climate conference in Glasgow — will further restrict investments in drilling, power plants and other projects by international development banks and other publicly funded institutions.“The presumption has to be that direct finance and public finance toward energy in developing countries around the world has to be in the clean and green area,” John Morton, climate counselor for the U.S. Treasury Department, said at the announcement of the initiative on Thursday.The new measures are the latest of several new targets that the International Energy Agency said could meaningfully alter the trajectory of global warming. The IEA’s executive director Fatih Birol said Thursday that if the new targets “are met in full and on time, they would be enough to hold the rise in global temperatures to 1.8 degrees Celsius [2.7 degrees Fahrenheit] by the end of the century.That marks an improvement in the agency’s normally glum assessments, and Birol called it a “landmark moment.” The IEA director credited measures taken since mid-October, including Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s strengthening of the country’s 2030 targets, its pledge to hit net zero emissions by 2070, and the pledge by several other large economies to reach net zero emissions. Birol also said that another key factor was that more than 100 countries had promised to cut emissions of methane 30 percent by 2030.
Countries pledge to quit coal — but the U.S., China and India are missing - Twenty-eight countries have joined an international alliance dedicated to phasing out coal, but the world's biggest polluters are not among them.The new members of the Powering Past Coal Alliance (PPCA), which include Ukraine, Poland and Singapore, bring the total number of national governments involved to 48.Coal, which fuels more than a third of the energy consumed worldwide, is thesingle biggest contributor to climate change.However, China, India and the United States, the three biggest burners of coal worldwide, have not signed up to the PPCA. Other major users and producers of coal, such as Australia and Japan, have also not joined the group. Some U.S. states and cities, including Philadelphia, New Jersey and Los Angeles, are members, however.Among the new members announced on Wednesday, Poland is the second-largest consumer of coal in Europe and the region's biggest coal producer, while Singapore is the first Asian country to join the PPCA. Other additional signatories include Chile, Estonia and Mauritius.The PPCA, whose existing members include the U.K., New Zealand and Germany – Europe's largest consumer of coal – is working to "advance the transition from unabated coal power generation to clean energy."Some major financial institutions, including HSBC, Fidelity International and Vancity – which all joined the alliance on Wednesday – are also counted among its members. It comes as coal remained a hot topic at the COP26 climate summit in Glasgow on Thursday.
Biden’s Carbon-Capture Plan Hands Lifeline to Coal Plants - Coal-fired power plants would be eligible for billions of dollars in extra tax breaks under President Joe Biden’s economic legislation if they install carbon-capture systems, an incentive that environmental groups say may delay the retirement of dozens of facilities. Power plants that capture their carbon dioxide emissions would be eligible for a tax credit of as much as $85 per metric ton under the draft of Biden’s $1.75 trillion spending plan released by the House last week. That’s an increase from a rate of $50 a metric ton in current law. The change could result in a single 1,000 megawatt coal plant receiving $6 billion in payments over 12 years, according to an analysis of the proposed credit by the environmental group Sierra Club, which estimates the increase could result in a quarter of the nation’s coal-fleet delaying retirement. “The provision, as written, delays the transition from fossil fuels — and emissions reductions — in the electric sector by throwing a decade-long lifeline to uneconomic coal plants,” the Sierra Club said in an analysis of the credit. “Even with the lower costs of renewable energy that will be spurred by Build Back Better, utilities will find carbon capture with these payments to be too attractive to pursue clean energy alternatives.” Among the group’s concerns is a tweak to the credit that would change the requirement that carbon capture systems be operational by 2026 to simply under construction by 2032 to qualify. That change could extend the life of coal-fired plants by a decade since carbon capture facilities can take years to construct, according to the Sierra Club. And any coal plant that does use the credit to install carbon capture technology would still have the same emissions profile of an unmitigated natural gas plant since the credit only requires electric-generation facilities to capture 75% of their emissions, the group said. The increased credit, which is backed by a coalition that includes utility DTE Energy Co. and miner Peabody Energy Corp., is one of dozens of energy and climate programs included in the House’s draft of Biden’s Build Back Better plan that includes $555 billion in climate spending. The increase in the carbon-capture credit has been seen as necessary to win the support of West Virginia Senator Joe Manchin and other Democrats who hail from states flush with coal and gas reserves.
Coal-fired generation expected to rise this year for first time since 2014 -A recently released federal report shows coal-fired electricity generation is estimated to increase this year for the first time since 2014. According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s “Short-Term Energy Outlook” report, there is expected to be 22% more U.S. coal-fired generation in 2021 than in 2020 — largely as a result of increased natural gas prices caused by the COVID-19 pandemic.The report’s forecast shows coal production is expected to total 588 million short tons in 2021, 53 million short tons more than in 2020. Demand for coal from the electric power sector is expected to increase by 84 million short tons in 2021. Production growth is unlikely to match the increases in demand in the near term due to many coal mines operating at a reduced capacity and limited available transportation, according to the report’s findings.In 2022, coal production is expected to increase by 34 million short tons to 622 million short tons, as the production and transportation constraints experienced in 2021 ease. Secondary inventories of coal at electric utilities decreased in the first half of 2021, and the forecast expects this trend will continue into the second half of 2021 and 2022. Chris Hamilton, president of the West Virginia Coal Association, said the report’s nationwide forecast is in line with what he’s been hearing from West Virginia coal producers. “Our information indicates that coal production within the state of West Virginia is about 20 to 22% over last year’s output. We’re seeing a lot of new orders coming in, which allows people to ramp up very modestly.”Coal supplies are currently “tight,” but market prices are favorable, Hamilton said.“The export market is going very well,” he said. “We’ve had a better than average third quarter so far. We’re hearing reports of local shortages of coal (around the world), because of that restricted supply. The world is responding to very low output last year — basically because of COVID. As those basic supplies are being brought back to normal levels, a number of foreign countries that we ship coal to are asking for more and are desirous to use more.”
Study: West Virginians pay more for electric compared to others in PJM market — As the possibility of West Virginia electric customers being on the hook for environmental improvements for three power plants looms on the horizon, a new study shows residential and industrial customers in the state already pay some of the highest prices for power. According to a study conducted by the West Virginia University Bureau of Business and Economics Research on behalf of the public relations firm Orion Strategies, electricity prices in West Virginia have steadily increased over the last 10 years compared to the average price of electricity for other states part of the PJM Interconnection market. PJM Interconnection is a wholesale energy transmission company, also called a regional transmission organization, serving 13 states and Washington, D.C. PJM serves all neighboring states and parts of Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Delaware, New Jersey, and North Carolina. PJM includes 400 member utilities and independent power producers. Founded in 1927, PJM and other regional transmission organizations allow generators of electricity and users to buy and sell power across the organization’s territory. Today’s PJM market came to be in 1999. While markets, such as PJM, have the potential to drive down the cost of wholesale electricity for industrial users and retail prices for residential customers, the WVU study said West Virginia was not receiving those benefits. According to one chart, PJM’s electric prices for residential customers remain higher than West Virginias over a 10-year period, but while PJM has come down since 2010, West Virginia’s prices have mostly increased.
Report finds potential to create hundreds of reclamation jobs on Justice-family coal mines – A new report by Appalachian Voices estimates that there is enough outstanding reclamation liability on coal mines owned by West Virginia Governor Jim Justice and/or his adult children to employ 220 to 460 workers for five years. Based on data provided by state and federal regulators, the report found that nearly 34,000 acres of Justice-family mines across Alabama, Kentucky, Tennessee, Virginia and West Virginia are in need of some degree of environmental cleanup, with more than a third lacking any reclamation work at all.Throughout his political career, Justice has declared his support for miners’ livelihoods, but companies owned by the Justice family have frequently been at odds with regulators over failures to complete required reclamation in a timely manner. Just last month, regulators in Kentucky moved to revoke five Justice-company mining permits, and asked a judge to require the West Virginia governor, his son, and seven of their companies to turn over nearly $3 million in past fines, after failing to reclaim several Eastern Kentucky mines in accordance with the terms of a 2019 agreement. On a state-by-state basis, the report enumerates the potential employment that is lost to the region as a result of these failures.“For more than a decade now, we’ve been tracking the persistent failures of Justice-family companies to reclaim their mines in an acceptable time frame. Every day that the Justices dodge their obligations is another day that some miner, or many miners, could be working to reclaim the land,” said Willie Dodson, Central Appalachian field coordinator for Appalachian Voices.The report, Reclaiming Justice Family-owned Coal Mines Could Create Hundreds of Jobs Across Appalachia, was authored by Willie Dodson, Central Appalachian field coordinator for Appalachian Voices. The research and analysis behind the report mirrored that of an earlier paper, Repairing the Damage: The cost of delaying reclamation at modern-era mines, which was written and researched by Erin Savage, senior program manager at Appalachian Voices, who also contributed to the new report.
Kentucky coal mines to hire workers and resume production -Companies tied to West Virginia Gov. Jim Justice plan to resume coal production at several surface mines in Eastern Kentucky, including two where state regulators argue Justice missed deadlines to finish reclamation, according to the president of the companies. Jim Justice’s son Jay, president of the Justice Companies, said companies have begun work to start producing coal at the Bevins Branch and Beech Creek mines in Pike County, the Bull Creek mine in Knott County and the Infinity mine in Harlan County. When all four are up and running, they will employ 120 people in mining jobs and another 30 in support positions, Jay Justice said. The mining also will produce tax revenue for the state and local governments and help get reclamation done, Justice said. “It’ll do a lot of good on a lot of fronts,” Justice said Monday.
Sierra Club of Illinois, Prairie Rivers Network threaten to sue Sugar Camp coal plant -- Environmental advocacy groups are threatening a lawsuit after toxic foam was dumped into the Sugar Camp Coal Mine, putting water supply at risk. Great Rivers Environmental Law Center and Albert Ettinger are representing the Sierra Club of Illinois and the Prairie Rivers Network. The groups have filed a notice of intent to sue against Sugar Camp Energy LLC and American Consolidated Natural Resources, according to a news release. The groups announced their intent to sue Monday, alleging the Sugar Camp coal mine’s violations of the Clean Water Act, the Surface Mining Control and Reclamation Act, and the Resource Conservation and Recovery Act, according to a release from the groups. The group’s decision to sue comes after reports that the camp dumped toxic PFAS-laden foam into the mine in an unsuccessful attempt to extinguish the fire that has been burning since mid-August. “The use of firefighting foam containing toxic PFAS chemicals at Sugar Camp Mine poses a threat to the public health of the nearby community and the surrounding environment, and Sugar Camp Energy must be held accountable,” Sierra Club Illinois Director Jack Darin said. “Sugar Camp Energy’s violations of the Clean Water Act, the Surface Mining Control and Reclamation Act (SMCRA), and the Resource Conservation and Recovery Act are just the latest reminder that Illinois must move beyond coal and transition to a safer, renewable energy future. That future starts with holding coal companies accountable for their actions and protecting communities from further harm.” According to environmental and health experts, PFAS is a particularly dangerous chemical and it stays in the environment forever. “The substances being discharged by the mine into nearby surface waters present a great environmental and health concern because of their potential to persist forever in the environment,” Sarah Rubenstein, staff attorney with Great Rivers Environmental Law Center, said. Sierra Club Illinois and the Prairie Rivers Network’s notice states that samples collected by the Illinois Environmental Protection Agency from nearby surface water locations found concentrations of PFAS higher than EPA health advisory levels, Illinois drinking water health advisory levels, and Illinois draft groundwater standards, the release said. Sugar Camp’s National Pollutant Discharge Elimination System (NPDES) permit does not authorize any discharges into the nearby watersheds, nor does it allow for the discharge of PFAS or other toxic substances found to be present in the nearby watersheds, the release said. “The irresponsible discharge of highly toxic chemicals into the ground and surrounding waterways is a great concern to myself and anyone with private water supplies in the area. Extensive, long-term testing must be made available to landowners,” Tabitha Tripp, an Illinois landowner and environmental advocate said. “Foresight must be held accountable for poisoning water supplies - this is not a burden that should fall on the landowners of Illinois. Sadly, once a water source is contaminated with a forever chemical like PFAS, the expense to purify water is simply not affordable. Mining coal is not worth the damage it’s doing to us and the land and to our health. “
Environmental groups intend to sue over Illinois mine PFA contamination - Environmental groups have sent a letter noting their intent to sue over releases of toxic PFAs as part of a firefighting effort at the troubled Sugar Camp mine in downstate Illinois. The move is meant to trigger action from state or federal agencies or otherwise hold the mine owners accountable for the latest in a long string of violations at Illinois’ largest mine.Starting in mid-August, 46,000 gallons of firefighting foam was pumped into the mine to suppress a smoldering underground fire. Soon, local residents saw foam on fields and floating on the surface of a nearby stream that feeds into Akin Creek, which empties into the Middle Fork Big Muddy River, a popular recreation spot.The Illinois Environmental Protection Agency conducted water tests that found PFAs — “forever chemicals” known to cause cancer, organ damage and fertility problems — in at least four sites at concentrations higher than EPA health advisory levels, Illinois drinking water health advisory levels, or Illinois draft groundwater standards.Advocates note that residents draw water from private wells throughout the area, so they are demanding testing of wells and groundwater to determine any risks.The Oct. 29 letter notes that the Sierra Club and Prairie Rivers Network will file a lawsuit against the mine owners if action is not taken within 60 days to stop any ongoing contamination and remediate the damage. The letter notes that the water contamination and PFA releases could constitute violations of the Clean Water Act, Surface Mining Control and Reclamation Act, and Resource Conservation and Recovery Act, all federal laws that are often enforced through such citizen lawsuits. The environmental groups sent their letter to Sugar Camp LLC — a subsidiary of Foresight Energy that has long co-owned the mine — and American Consolidated Natural Resources. Foresight Energy and its parent company, Murray Energy, got approval for Chapter 11 bankruptcy reorganization last year, and as part of the process, American Consolidated Natural Resources was formed by former creditors and took control of many Murray Energy assets. Foresight and Murray Energy president and CEO Robert Moore is also president and CEO of American Consolidated. The company is now the largest privately-owned coal company in the country.
Georgia Power Says Its Coal Ash Cleanup Tab Has Risen to $9 Billion -Georgia Power now says it will cost $8.96 billion to shut down its 29 coal ash storage ponds and 12 landfills, up from its original estimate of $7.6 billon while environmentalists fight the company’s plans to make customers pay for cleanup and closure. The Georgia Court of Appeals on Oct. 26 rejected the Sierra Club's appeal of the state Public Service Commission’s decision that allows the power company, a unit of Southern Co., to pass remediation costs to ratepayers and earn a rate of return. “Georgia Power should not earn a profit for mismanaging coal ash for decades,” David Rogers, Sierra Club southeast regional director for the Beyond Coal Campaign, told ENR. "If it had done something, the cost would be much lower."
Grand jury to receive report in probe of TVA coal ash spill - Prosecutors will take the next steps in a criminal investigation of the Tennessee Valley Authority and a contractor related to the devastating 2008 Kingston coal ash spill and the subsequent cleanup. The Tennessee Bureau of Investigation will present a report to a Roane County grand jury on Nov. 15, according to 9th Judicial District Attorney General Russell Johnson. The TBI investigation is part of the first major criminal proceeding against the TVA, the nation's largest public utility, and Jacobs Engineering since the environmental disaster that occurred over a decade ago at the TVA's Kingston Fossil Plant in Harriman. In October 2020, a federal judge dismissed a lawsuit that Roane County leaders filed against TVA and Jacobs Engineering. The Roane County News first reported the grand jury hearing. "TVA remains committed to cooperating with all federal and state authorities as we have since the ash spill occurred in 2008," TVA spokesperson Scott Brooks said in a statement. The TVA would not respond to any other questions about Johnson's investigation or the upcoming grand jury hearing, Brooks said. Johnson wouldn't respond to questions about the upcoming grandy jury hearing, either, citing professional rules of ethics. "As prosecutors we are prohibited from participating in or encouraging others to talk about cases that might or might not result in a criminal prosecution pre-charge or pre-indictment. Even after a charge or indictment is brought (if any) we are similarly prohibited from creating or participating in pre-trial publicity," Johnson said in an email. More than 7 million cubic tons of coal ash — the toxic waste that comes from the process of burning coal to produce electricity — spilled at the Kingston plant in December 2008 after sludge containing the waste burst through the walls holding the ash in containment ponds. The TVA hired Jacobs to cleanup the spill.However, during the cleanup, workers employed by Jacobs Engineering complained about having insufficient protective gear and that they were breathing in coal ash circulating throughout the cleanup site.TVA and Jacobs Engineering claimed after the spill that the coal ash didn't pose a serious danger, but a 2017 Knox News investigationfound the toxic waste contained radioactive metals is harmful to people.
The New Coal: Pushing Plastics Worsens Climate Change – A report published earlier this month,The New Coal: Plastics and Climate Change, issued by Beyond Plastics caught my eye, offering another reason for getting serious about the world’s plastics problem: pushing plastics exacerbates climate change.This report uses a known problem – coal-fired power plants -as a benchmark, and examines ten stages in creating, using, and disposing of plastics. These include (from the Beyond Plastics website):fracking for plastics, transporting and processing fossil fuels, gas crackers, other plastics feedstock manufacturing, polymers and additives production, exports and imports, foamed plastic insulation, “chemical recycling”, municipal waste incineration, and plastics in the water. It also makes clear what climate campaigners are up against. The G20 failed to come to any consensus about phasing out coal, as I mentioned above. But even if that well known climate change contributor were to be addressed, immediately and effectively, climate campaigners are locked in an ongoing whack-a-mole scenario with fossil fuel interests. From the press release summarising the Beyond Plastics report’s findings: Plastics are on track to contribute more climate change emissions than coal plants by 2030, a new report finds. As fossil fuel companies seek to recoup falling profits, they are increasing plastics production and cancelling out greenhouse gas reductions gained from the recent closures of 65 percent of the country’s coal-fired power plants.The New Coal: Plastics and Climate Change by Beyond Plastics at Bennington College analyzes never- before-compiled data of ten stages of plastics production, usage, and disposal and finds that the U.S. plastics industry is releasing at least 232 million tons of greenhouse gases each year, the equivalent of 116 average-sized coal-fired power plants.And that number is growing quickly. In 2020, the plastics industry’s reported emissions increased by 10 million tons of greenhouse gas emissions over 2019. Construction is currently underway on another 12 plastics facilities, and 15 more are planned—altogether these expansions may emit more than 40 million more tons of greenhouse gases annually by 2025.In addition to accelerating climate change, plastic pollutes water, air, soil, wildlife, and health— particularly in low-income communities and communities of color. The U.S. plastics industry reported releasing 114 million tons of greenhouse gases nationwide in 2020. Ninety percent of its reported climate change pollution occurs in just 18 communities where residents earn 28% less than the average U.S. household and are 67% more likely to be people of color. In addition to greenhouse gases, these facilities also emit massive amounts of particulates and other toxic chemicals into the air, threatening residents’ health.What the industry reports is less than half of what it actually releases, according to the analysis by Material Research. The Maine-based firm examined data from federal agencies including the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Department of Commerce, and Department of Energy, and found a severe undercounting of plastics’ climate impacts. In addition to the 114 million tons of greenhouse gases the industry reported releasing in 2020, Material Research identified another 118 million tons of greenhouse gas emissions from other stages, the equivalent of more carbon dioxide than that of 59 average-sized coal-fired power plants. The big takeaway from the Beyond Plastics report: plastics are the new coal.
UAE oil giant lauded for nuclear, solar power supply deal, but specifics needed - Energy experts say a plan by the Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC) to power its operations using solar and nuclear energy beginning next year is a "groundbreaking" move, but more information is needed to understand the real impact on emissions. ADNOC, which exports more than 3 million barrels of oil per day, signed a supply deal with the Emirates Water and Electricity Company (EWEC) to provide 100% of its grid power from nuclear and solar energy from January 2022. "This landmark clean energy partnership with EWEC will make ADNOC the first major oil and gas company to decarbonize its power at scale," said Sultan Al Jaber, Managing Director and Group CEO of ADNOC. Industry observers welcomed the plan, which will tap into the UAE's regional leadership in nuclear and solar power investments, despite limited detail on offer about how it would work. "Several international oil companies have net zero commitments for operational emissions. This is quite groundbreaking in terms of realizing zero carbon electricity across an entire portfolio," "My estimate is this could save about 7-9 Mt (million metric tons) CO2 emissions a year. Possibly more if applied to the downstream industries," Mills said. The assessment comes as big oil faces increasing investor pressure over its climate ambitions. Companies, including ADNOC and Saudi Arabia's Aramco, have launched climate initiatives just days ahead of COP26, while simultaneously investing to increase oil production in the coming years. The ADNOC-EWEC partnership, while significant, did not outline how the clean electricity agreement would be implemented or offer specific insight on the quantity of emissions it was expected to reduce. "ADNOC wants to tout progress on cutting emissions and decarbonizing its oil and gas operations ahead of COP26," Ben Cahill, a Senior Fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, told CNBC. "This announcement would be more meaningful if ADNOC offered hard data," Cahill added. Cahill said more information was needed to understand how its "Scope 1" and "Scope 2" emissions — two key categories of emissions a company creates by its own operations and in its wider value chain — might be impacted. "As they flesh out their sustainability plans, they'll have to offer more data," Cahill said.
China Climate Goals Hinge on $440 Billion Nuclear Power Plan to Rival U.S. - Nuclear power once seemed like the world’s best hope for a carbon-neutral future. After decades of cost-overruns, public protests and disasters elsewhere, China has emerged as the world’s last great believer, with plans to generate an eye-popping amount of nuclear energy, quickly and at relatively low cost. China has over the course of the year revealed the extensive scope of its plans for nuclear, an ambition with new resonance given the global energy crisis and the calls for action coming out of the COP26 Climate Summit in Glasgow. The world’s biggest emitter, China’s planning at least 150 new reactors in the next 15 years, more than the rest of the world has built in the past 35. The effort could cost as much as $440 billion; as early as the middle of this decade, the country will surpass the U.S. as the world’s largest generator of nuclear power.
Nuclear power plant operators want to run for eight decades, but a federal lab in Washington state found ‘critical gaps’ in knowledge about how reactors age - Federal regulators have embarked on a new era of relicensing that could eventually enable Washington’s Columbia Generating Station and many other U.S. nuclear power plants to operate for as long as 80 years. Researchers have conducted years of experiments to learn more about how different parts of the power plants age when exposed to a harsh mix of pressures, water chemistry and radiation. Despite all this testing, questions remain about the long-term wear, beyond the 60 years for which plants are licensed. So the Nuclear Regulatory Commission that conducts relicensing contracted with the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory in Richland to develop a kind of road map for future study. That report was published online in 2017 by the federal laboratory. It detailed a series of “critical gaps” in knowledge, and proposed an ambitious research plan to help fill them in by studying parts pulled from shuttered nuclear power plants. This report got a chill reception at the NRC. Some commission staff thought some of the report’s wording was inaccurate or misleading and could lead readers to believe “we should not be issuing renewed licenses” to run for up to eight decades, according to emails and other documents obtained under the federal Freedom of Information Act. “I think the entire report needs to be scrubbed for text that points to gaps and, if issued, we need a stronger basis for why we will grant renewed licensing … before harvesting [of parts from shutdown reactors] and testing is completed,” wrote one NRC staffer. ADVERTISING The report was substantially revised by the NRC, which in 2019 released a toned-down version of the report that deleted all seven references to critical gaps in knowledge.
Nuclear plant price doubles to $28.5B as other owners balk (AP) — The cost of two nuclear reactors being built in Georgia is now $28.5 billion, more than twice the original price tag, and the other owners of Plant Vogtle argue Georgia Power Co. has triggered an agreement requiring Georgia Power to shoulder a larger share of the financial burden.Atlanta-based Southern Co. announced in its quarterly earnings statement Thursday that Georgia Power’s share of the third and fourth nuclear reactors at Plant Vogtle has risen to a total of $12.7 billion, an increase of $264 million. Along with what cooperatives and municipal utilities project, the total cost of Vogtle has now more than doubled the original projection of $14 billion.Opponents have long warned that overruns would be sky-high. Liz Coyle, executive director of consumer advocacy group Georgia Watch, said the price tag is “outrageous” but predictable.“We said you can’t build it for what you’re saying you can,” she said of Georgia Watch’s opposition to the project when the Georgia Public Service Commission originally authorized the new reactors. Total costs are actually higher than $28.5 billion, because that doesn’t count the $3.68 billion that contractor Westinghouse paid back to owners after going bankrupt. When approved in 2012, the first electricity was supposed to be generated in 2016. The company and regulators insist the first new U.S. reactors in decades are the best source of clean and reliable energy for Georgia. Opponents say other options would be cheaper and better, including natural gas or solar generation.Southern Co. also disclosed Thursday that the other owners of Vogtle are saying Georgia Power has tripped an agreement to pay a larger share of the ongoing overruns, a cost the company estimates at up to $350 million. Southern Co. said it disagrees that Georgia Power has crossed the cost threshold but has signed an agreement to extend talks with the other owners on the issue.
Jellyfish attack nuclear power plants. Again and again. -Scotland’s only working nuclear power plant at Torness shut down in an emergency procedure when jellyfish clogged the sea water-cooling intake pipes at the plant, according to the Scotland Herald this week. Without access to cool water, a nuclear power plant risks overheating. The intake pipes can also be damaged, which disrupts power generation. And ocean life that gets sucked into a power plant’s intake pipes risks death.The threat these gelatinous, pulsating, umbrella-shaped marine animals pose to nuclear power plants is neither new nor unknown. (Indeed, the Bulletin reported on this threat in 2015.) Nuclear power plant closures—even temporary ones—are expensive. To protect marine life and avert power plant closures, scientists are exploring early warning system options. For example, researchers at Cranfield University in the United Kingdom launched a project earlier this year to determine whether drones may be used to provide estimates of jellyfish locations, amounts, and density.“The successful operation of [beyond visual line of sight drones] will enable us to detect threats from marine ingress at an earlier state and prevent disruption to the power plant,” Monica Rivas Casado, a senior lecturer in environmental monitoring at Cranfield, said. In the United Kingdom, 20 percent of electricity is nuclear, a percentage roughly equaled in the United States, compared with approximately 10 percent globally. Blooms of translucent jellyfish with their trailing, stinging tentacles are sometimes described as “invasions” because they often emerge en masse in way that appears sudden. Still, determined observers may find early clues of a jellyfish bloom. Spotting jellyfish swarms by way of drones requires balancing recognition accuracy with recognition speed—at least if the goal is to take preventative action to avoid nuclear power plant disruption. Scientists have been at work developing algorithms that foster this balance, including one study that delivered results within a desirable timeframe and over 90 percent accuracy.
House lawmakers review coal bailouts, energy efficiency proposal - Ohio Capital Journal -Major pieces of scandal-tainted legislation remain on the books in Ohio, and House lawmakers indicate they plan to keep it that way.The Ohio House Public Utilities Committee on Wednesday reviewed two pieces of legislation aimed at different remnants of House Bill 6 from 2019. HB 6 is now mired in a bribery scandal that has yielded several pleas of guilt and criminally implicated the former House speaker, who awaits trial. When FirstEnergy Corp. admitted to its role paying millions into a dark money fund to get HB 6 passed, the company stated it also bribed the chairman of the Public Utilities Commission of Ohio, the state’s top regulator. He has not been charged with a crime.One bill before the committee Wednesday would revive, in watered down form, a version of an energy efficiency program designed to reduce Ohio ratepayers’ electricity use by 0.5% annually. HB 6 eliminated a more ambitious program that aimed to reduce consumer electricity use by 2% annually.The other would repeal hundreds of millions of dollars in ratepayer-funded subsidies of two unprofitable coal-fired power plants operated by the Ohio Valley Electric Corp., a cooperative owned by several large utilities. HB 6 took preexisting OVEC subsidies approved by the PUCO and codified them, extended their effective length by several years, and applied them to customers of all Ohio utilities (not just those that own OVEC).After Wednesday’s hearing, Committee Chairman Jim Hoops. R-Napolean, said the energy efficiency plan — backed by utilities, environmentalists and bipartisan lawmakers — is “moving along.” House Speaker Bob Cupp, R-Lima, however, said last month there’s insufficient GOP support to repeal the coal bailouts.Duke Energy executive Amy Spiller rejected use of the term “subsidies.” She insisted that Duke’s relationship with OVEC is “independent” of the “hedging mechanism” enabled in House Bill 6 it uses to charge customers for costs incurred via its OVEC interest. Utility officials refer to the OVEC payments as a “hedge” — they’re a charge to customers when OVEC sells power at a loss, but could theoretically become a credit to consumers if coal markets boom in value. However, since HB 6 was enacted, the “hedge,” in effect until 2030, has cost ratepayers $166 million and has yet to act as a credit, according to data from PUCO.
FirstEnergy agrees to give more than $300 million in customer refunds under settlement - cleveland.com — FirstEnergy Corp. has agreed to give $306 million in customer refunds over the next five years to resolve claims that the Akron-based utility’s subsidiaries made significantly excessive profits in recent years, among other issues, according to a state filing.Under a settlement reached between FirstEnergy and various of consumer groups, the average FirstEnergy residential customer will receive $85.71 over the next five years as credits on their electric bills, according to the Office of the Ohio Consumers’ Counsel, one of the groups involved in the negotiations.The settlement also resolves disputes over a state review of FirstEnergy’s power pricing plan — called an electric security plan — and audits of the company’s energy-efficiency customer charge between 2014 and 2018.The Public Utilities Commission of Ohio still needs to approve the deal, though it’s likely to do so given that it’s supported by PUCO staff and has no opponents, according to a commission release. If it’s approved, residential customers will get a lump-sum payment of about $26.91 on their electric bill within 30 days, according to an Ohio Consumers’ Counsel release. After that, they would see monthly credits that slowly decrease from $1.87 per month in 2022 to 58 cents per month in 2025, the release stated. The negotiations between FirstEnergy and groups such as the Ohio Consumers’ Counsel, Industrial Energy Users-Ohio, and the Ohio Energy Group came after lawmakers repealed part of the current state budget that changed the way the state calculates whether the utility’s subsidiaries are making “significantly excessive” profits. The law change allowed subsidiaries Ohio Edison, Cleveland Electric Illuminating Company and Toledo Edison to consider the profits made by all three subsidiaries averaged together, rather than separately. That allowed Ohio Edison to make a windfall, as its higher profits were grouped with the lower profit margins of the other two subsidiaries, Ohio Consumers’ Counsel Bruce Weston previously testified.However, the change was repealed earlier this year by the state legislature at the same time it dismantled parts of the scandal-ridden House Bill 6, including a $1 billion-plus ratepayer bailout of two nuclear power plants owned by a one-time FirstEnergy subsidiary and a so-called “decoupling” policy that allowed FirstEnergy to collect millions from customers. FirstEnergy previously agreed to refund that money. Ohio Edison’s profit margins in 2017, 2018, and 2019 were 17.39%, 18.16%, and 16.53%, respectively, according to the Ohio Consumers’ Counsel.
Ohio Oil & Gas Jobs Average Salary $81,000/Year – Looking for a great job? Looking to work hard, but make excellent money for your hard work? If you live in Ohio, the answer to your job search lies in the oil and gas industry. The Ohio Oil and Gas Energy Education Program (OOGEEP) says there are more than 75 types of jobs in the Ohio oil and gas sector, with many jobs in welding, truck driving, and engineering. As of Aug. 19, there are 1,140 jobs available. And get this: Careers in oil and gas pay on average $30,000 more than other fields and average roughly $81,000 a year!
Gulfport 3Q: Gas Production Won't Increase This Winter Gulfport Energy, the third-largest driller in the Ohio Utica Shale (by the number of wells drilled), emerged from bankruptcy in May with a new board and new top management. The company issued its third quarter update yesterday. Unfortunately, the company got hosed on hedges, losing $622 million during 3Q21 on hedges which resulted in an overall loss of $463 million for the quarter. The company produced 973 MMcf/d (million cubic feet per day) during 3Q21, down slightly from an average 992 MMcf/d a year ago. That production is across both shale plays where Gulfport drills: the Ohio Utica and Oklahoma SCOOP.Operationally, Gulfport spud two gross operated wells in the Utica in 3Q21 with a planned average lateral length of approximately 15,920 feet. In addition, Gulfport turned to sales two gross operated wells in the Utica with an average lateral length of approximately 13,700 feet.Gulfport’s net daily production for the third quarter of 2021 of 973.3 MMcfe per day breaks down as 699.0 MMcfe per day in the Utica and 273.8 MMcfe per day in the SCOOP. For 3Q, Gulfport’s net daily production mix was approximately 89% natural gas, 8% natural gas liquids, and 3% oil.Interim CEO Timothy Cutt had this to say in his opening/prepared comments on yesterday’s conference call with analysts: As you saw from our earnings release, we made steady progress on numerous fronts during the quarter. We put a new credit facility in place that increases our liquidity by 160 million and accelerates our ability to return capital to shareholders, as demonstrated by the announced $100 million share repurchase program. The six-well Angelo pad was completed in the Utica, which is currently flowing at a rate of 200 million cubic feet per day. Finally, the company fully resolved its largest post-bankruptcy litigation exposure with TC Energy and announced the Settlement Agreement relating to its own standing litigation with Stingray Pressure Pumping in September...Production average 973 million cubic feet of gas equivalent per day during the quarter, slightly above expectations, driven by strong reservoir performance from both the Utica and the SCOOP development programs. We anticipate an increase in total production during the fourth quarter, driven by strong contribution from the Angelo pad. (press conference transcript and embedded financial documents included)
Big Marcellus Shale producer diversifies with acquisition in Louisiana - Southwestern Energy, a big Marcellus and Utica shale gas producer, announced its third acquisition in less than a year and a half in a deal that will expand its operations outside of Appalachia. Southwestern will pay $1.85 billion, much of it in cash, to acquire GEP Haynesville LLC, the third-largest producer in that Louisiana shale basin and much of it adjacent to its newly acquired acreage in its June acquisition of Indigo Natural Resources for $2.7 billion. The GEP deal, along with its Indigo acreage, will catapult Southwestern to become the largest natural gas producer in the Haynesville. But the three-state footprint of Southwestern in Appalachia will still remain the company's largest share, both in acreage and production. Southwestern produces 3 billion cubic feet a day of gas from the Marcellus and Utica shales, compared to what will be 1.7 billion cubic feet all told in the Haynesville when the GEP acquisition is complete. Southwestern also has much more acreage in Appalachia, with 789,000 here compared to what will be 269,000 when the transaction is complete. In a conference call Thursday with analysts about the GEP acquisition and Southwestern's third-quarter financials, CEO William Way said the company's focus on the financial side of the business is allowing it to continue to capture the benefits of scale in gas production. Since August 2020, Southwestern acquired Montage Resources for $193 million as well as the two Haynesville deals worth $4.55 billion. The first deal beefed up its presence in the Marcellus and Utica; the latter two gave Southwestern a second natural gas basin. Now it's all wrapped up in a natural gas driller that was the earliest to move on responsibly sourced natural gas with early deals in 2017 in Appalachia and has recently stepped up its investment. Responsible natural gas is measured for methane emissions and best practices and then certified by a third-party, in this case Denver-based Project Canary. Southwestern, headquartered in Spring, Texas, reported it passed 4 trillion cubic feet of responsible natural gas production, all from Pennsylvania, achieving a milestone in what has become a new hallmark among natural gas producers. Way said Appalachia continues to be a great value driver for Southwestern.
Marcellus Shale gas producers say they welcome tighter methane limits - Natural gas producers and their trade associations mostly welcomed tighter regulations on the emissions of methane that were proposed Tuesday by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency.The proposed regulations by the Biden administration would put in tougher limits to methane leaks from oil and gas production in the United States, both new wells and pipelines as well as existing wells and infrastructure. Methane is a major greenhouse gas that impacts climate change, as well as being the main product that is being sold as natural gas in the Marcellus and Utica shale and elsewhere. A final rule would be sometime away. But Marcellus and Utica Shale gas producers would fare better than many other oil and gas producers in the United States. Producers here rarely flare gas as they do in other basins, and producers from EQT Corp, Range Resources Corp. and others have either set net zero emissions goals or have them in the works. And many producers have spent time and money to sharply cut greenhouse gas emissions and in the midst of doing even more. Many of the big producers publicly supported the Biden administration's plans to reimpose methane limits that had been loosened during the last year of the Trump administration in 2020. “Reducing methane emissions is a foundational component of our mission given its importance in addressing global climate change. That is why EQT supported the reinstitution of the methane rules and why we have set an aggressive target of reducing our methane emissions by approximately 65% by 2025," EQT said in a statement. "While today’s announcement of proposed rules targeting methane reduction in the U.S. oil and natural gas industry is an important step, it is not the final solution. We also need to place an equal amount of scrutiny on the remaining 70% of domestic methane emissions, as well as global emissions." Marcellus Shale Coalition President David Callahan also promoted the strides Marcellus Shale producers have made in reducing emissions. “Pennsylvania’s modern natural gas operators have a long-standing commitment to advancing best-in-class environmental performance, which has resulted in the lowest methane intensity of producing basins and has made Appalachia one of the world’s most environmentally responsible producing regions," Callahan said. "As methane is the very product Pennsylvania gas producers sell, it makes economic and environmental sense to ensure methane is safely and efficiently transported to market. We look forward to working through the regulatory process to arrive at a workable, predictable regulatory approach."A methane tax has long been under consideration by Congressional Democrats seeking to pass and pay for the infrastructure bill. The industry has spoken out aggressively against the tax, but have been generally supported of methane reductions.According to S&P Global Platts Analytics, marginally-producing wells will only have to do a one-time survey to make sure there are no active leaks. It will not likely to add a lot of costs to producers, S&P said.
Court hears arguments in latest legal attack on Mountain Valley Pipeline - Environmental groups waged their latest attack Friday on the Mountain Valley Pipeline, asking a federal appeals court to again strike down key permits issued to the embattled project.After listening to oral arguments by attorneys from both sides, a three-judge panel of the 4th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals is expected to issue written opinions by the end of the year.At issue are two key decisions by federal agencies: One to allow the natural gas pipeline to pass through 3.5 miles of the Jefferson National Forest, and the other a finding that the massive infrastructure would not jeopardize endangered species of fish and bats in its path.Challenges from the groups, led by Appalachian Voices and Wild Virginia, already have caused delays to a project that is running nearly three years behind schedule.Questions about the pipeline’s environmental impacts — and whether they were adequately addressed by the government — previously led to suspensions of the U.S. Forest Service’s decision to let the pipeline pass through federal woodlands, the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service’s opinion on endangered species, and the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers’ approval for the pipeline to cross streams and wetlands.Permits were reissued for the first two areas and are now facing a second challenge.A third set of approvals to cross water bodies was stayed last year by the 4th Circuit, prompting Mountain Valley to pursue a different process that has yet to lead to new permits being granted.One of the arguments made Friday by Sierra Club attorney Elly Benson, who represented the environmental groups, was that the Fish and Wildlife Service did not properly consider climate change in its analysis of endangered species, which include the Roanoke logperch and the candy darter.Benson noted that when Mountain Valley violated erosion and sediment control regulations hundreds of times, the company repeatedly blamed the infractions on record rainfalls since construction began in 2018. “That’s exactly the kind of impact that a climate analysis would help take into account,” she told the three appellate judges — all of whom were involved in earlier 4th Circuit rulings that went against the pipeline.
Environmental concerns dominate Army Corps public comment hearing on key permit for Mountain Valley Pipeline --Opponents of the Mountain Valley Pipeline comprised the vast majority of commenters during a public hearing on a key application for the project.The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers held the virtual public comment hearing Monday evening to collect West Virginia input on an application from Mountain Valley Pipeline LLC, the joint venture that owns the pipeline, for a permit that would allow for discharging dredged and fill material into streams and wetlands.Those speaking out against the pipeline, which would transport natural gas 303 miles from Wetzel County to Southern Virginia, pointed to the project’s past water quality violations and concerns expressed by federal environmental regulators about its potential water-crossing effects.A minority of gas and oil industry and labor union representatives defended the pipeline and urged issuance of the permit, arguing that the project is a job creator and potential energy provider too valuable to be halted for good.Canonsburg, Pennsylvania-based Mountain Valley Pipeline LLC proposed a 125-foot-wide temporary right-of-way to construct the pipeline and a 50-foot-wide permanent right-of-way to maintain and operate the pipeline once in service. The project would result in the permanent discharge of dredged and fill material into more than 1,100 linear feet of streams in West Virginia.The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency has defined fill material as including rock, soil, clay, construction debris and materials used to create any structure in waters of the United States, a broad term that includes all interstate waters or waters that could be used by interstate travelers.Suzanne Vance of Weston, on whose farm road Mountain Valley has a temporary road easement at Second Big Run in Lewis County, said the area is unsafe for boring — a trenchless construction method that Federal Energy Regulatory Commission staff said in August would trigger fewer environmental effects than open-cut crossings.“All I see MVP doing is cleaning up slips and washouts,” Vance said.Dave Bassage, New River Gorge program coordinator for the New River Conservancy, a tri-state group aiming to protect the New River watershed, said requirements for the proposed permit need to be more stringent. The group’s main concerns, Bassage said, are sedimentation in the Greenbrier and New rivers, as well as the potential release of construction fluids and hazardous materials that could harm aquatic ecosystems.The West Virginia Department of Environmental Protection proposed a consent order earlier this year requiring Mountain Valley to pay a $303,000 fine for violating permits by failing to control erosion and sediment-laden water. That penalty followed a $266,000 fine from the same regulators in 2019 for similar erosion and water contamination issues. The Virginia Department of Environmental Quality fined Mountain Valley $2.15 million that same year for water quality violations. The EPA recommended in May that the Corps of Engineers not issue the permit for the Mountain Valley Pipeline until it makes less-environmentally damaging changes to the project. “[The] EPA is concerned that the applicant has not yet demonstrated that the discharges from the project, as proposed, will not cause or contribute to water quality standards exceedances or significant degradation of receiving waters,” agency wetlands branch chief Jeffrey Lapp wrote to Corps Huntington District regulatory branch chief Michael Hatten in the letter.
Mountain Valley Pipeline nears completion, but hurdles remain - As work on the Mountain Valley Pipeline winds down for another winter season, all but about 20 miles of the 303-mile-long natural gas conduit is finished, according to the lead partner of the project. In perhaps the most bitterly fought environmental battle in Southwest Virginia’s recent history, Mountain Valley has faced multiple court fights that delayed its completion by more than three years and nearly doubled its cost to $6.2 billion. But as it nears the end of its fourth year of construction, all that remains is about 20 miles of stream and wetland crossings and a passage through the Jefferson National Forest, Mountain Valley still lacks state and federal permits to cross water bodies for the final phase of construction — and opponents show no signs of giving up. Of 2,292 comments made to the Department of Environmental Quality, 90% opposed granting a state permit for the remaining stream crossings in Virginia, according to Wild Virginia, one of many environmental groups opposed to the project. Mountain Valley has identified 144 crossings that involve temporarily damming a stream and digging a trench along the bottom for the buried pipe. Another 92 crossings will be done by boring under the water body, which is covered by a separate permitting process that does not require state approval. DEQ held two public hearings in September and accepted written comments through Oct. 27. A decision by the State Water Control Board is expected in December. Wild Virginia obtained the public comments — which include most but not all of the written statements — from DEQ through an open-records request, it said in a news release last week. . “We do not presume that Board members will agree with our opinions or those of any other party” Jacqueline Goodrum, conservation policy associate for the group, said in a statement. “However, one fact seems clear to us. Opponents of MVP provided a huge body of evidence, backed by legal analysis, scientific reports, and data, indicating that MVP has not proven its case.” There must be a showing that digging trenches through water bodies will not violate the federal Clean Water Act. Approval by the state board is required before the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers can give a final go-ahead. In 2017, the water board granted certification to Mountain Valley after finding a “reasonable assurance” that streams and wetlands would not be harmed. But after a blanket permit later issued by the Army Corps was challenged in court by environmental groups, Mountain Valley restarted the process by seeking individual stream crossing approvals. The company has run into repeated problems controlling muddy runoff from its construction sites, and opponents contend that information not known to the water board four years ago should lead it to deny the certification this time. “MVP has caused much destruction and pain to local residents and water users so far and these proposals would be a major blow to our precious resources and our communities,” David Sligh, conservation director of Wild Virginia, said. “Further damage must not be allowed.”
At issue in Chickahominy Pipeline hearing: Just what is a public utility? - Exactly what makes a company a public utility was the debate Wednesday as regulators weighed whether or not the state needs to give approval for the construction of a gas pipeline across five Central Virginia counties. Chickahominy Pipeline “is not a public utility because while it will be transporting natural gas for heat, light or power, it will not be doing so for sale,” argued attorney Eric Page of Eckert Seamans on behalf of the company. Rather, he said, Chickahominy Pipeline will simply be transporting natural gas between a third-party supplier and its purchaser, Chickahominy Power, LLC, a company that has been seeking for several years to build a natural gas plant in Charles City County. “There is no mercantile relationship between Chickahominy (Pipeline) and CPLLC with regard to the natural gas,” continued Page, using an abbreviation for the company developing the power station. “Chickahominy is not selling natural gas to CPLLC. Rather, the third-party supplier is selling gas to CPLLC.” Both Chickahominy Power and Chickahominy Pipeline are affiliated with Balico, LLC, and the pipeline has specifically been proposed to transport natural gas to the facility. The plans have provoked controversy in both Charles City County, where the large plant would be constructed and operated by a private owner to sell electricity into the regional grid, and across four other counties the pipeline would cross. A map of the project shows that it would stretch roughly 83 miles, from the Transco interstate pipeline in Louisa County through Hanover, Henrico and New Kent counties before reaching Charles City. Shortly after residents in the five counties began receiving letters this July about the proposed conduit, Chickahominy Pipeline asked the State Corporation Commission to rule that it doesn’t need regulatory approval to construct the infrastructure because it isn’t providing “non-utility gas service” and isn’t a public utility — two conditions that would trigger regulatory oversight. During Wednesday’s hearing on that question, regulatory staff and attorneys with the Southern Environmental Law Center representing environmental and grassroots opposition groups all insisted that Chickahominy Pipeline is by law a public utility. “Chickahominy Pipeline is proposing something that is unheard of in the commonwealth before, and that is a gas pipeline, a large-scale gas pipeline, unregulated by either this commission or the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission,” said Southern Environmental Law Center attorney Greg Buppert.
Expert says natural gas program 'has been a complete fleecing of utility ratepayers' - – A natural gas program designed to save taxpayers hundreds of thousands of dollars each year has yet to materialize in Connecticut, and is instead leaving homeowners and businesses who converted to it facing an expensive winter. Former Gov. Daniel P. Malloy's Comprehensive Energy Strategy included a large-scale natural gas expansion, in part to bolster the economy and in part to reduce high energy prices. By 2020, 300,000 homes were to be connected to natural gas. "At a high-level, the program assumed that the economics of converting from fuel oil to natural gas would drive a substantial number of conversions, with some additional assistance through this program," Taren O'Connor, director of Legislation, Regulations and Communications at Connecticut Public Utilities Regulatory Authority, told The Center Square. "However, the relative prices of fuel oil and natural gas through the life of this program have proven more price competitive, leading to fewer conversions than projected through the CES and at the outset of the program." Chris Herb, president of the Connecticut Energy Marketers Association, told The Center Square the plan was built on a faulty premise that natural gas prices would remain low for decades. "The plan was supposed to convert 300,000 customers and build 900 miles of new pipelines which is funded by a 30% surcharge on gas customers," Herb said. "When you calculate the cost to convert to natural gas (between $7,000 and $11,000), include the 30% conversion surcharge, and increasing cost of gas, this has been a complete fleecing of utility ratepayers. At the end of the day, DEEP was wrong when it came to the economics and on the environmental benefits of natural gas." With natural gas prices currently soaring, those homes and businesses that have made the switch are looking at a costly winter season. "Gas rates rose from September across the board for all three utilities, due to increased international commodity prices," Herb said. "PURA officials warn of more increases heading into the winter, so I think it is safe to say that natural gas customers can expect a much more expensive heating season than they have seen in years." "DEEP and the legislature cannot control global commodity prices, and they made a bet with ratepayers' money that the low prices that were present in 2013 would remain like that for a very long time and they were dead wrong," Herb said. "Consumers trusted DEEP and they ended being misled into making a bad decision to switch to gas that ended up costing them more in the long run."
Safety bills mix with calls for natural gas transition - – Natural gas holds an important and debated place in the state’s energy mix, and lawmakers on a key committee heard testimony Tuesday from an array of advocates calling on the Legislature to “triage and transition” — that is, to manage a transition away from gas but also to maintain the safety and reliability of existing natural gas infrastructure during that transition. The Joint Committee on Telecommunications, Utilities and Energy focused its hearing Tuesday on natural gas matters, but most of the testimony was in support of a bill (H 3298/S 2148) from Rep. Lori Ehrlich and Sen. Cynthia Creem that would require gas companies to begin shifting away from gas and towards renewable thermal energy. Lawmakers also heard about a series of gas safety bills, like H 3354 from Lawrence Rep. Frank Moran and S 2166 from Sen. Jamie Eldridge. Advocates and lawmakers repeatedly pointed Tuesday to the climate law that Gov. Charlie Baker signed in March, which commits Massachusetts to achieve net-zero carbon emissions by 2050 and requires interim emissions reduction goals between now and the middle of the century. “Reaching that goal is going to require us to move buildings onto electric heat and off of gas, which will raise questions about the infrastructure that we have in place to deliver gas,” Sen. Michael Barrett, the Senate co-chair of the TUE Committee, said. “And at the same time, of course, we’re concerned about leaks from that infrastructure and somehow have to balance our weariness about continued investment with the necessity of maintaining public safety. Each year, at least so far, about 14,000 new leaks are detected in this infrastructure. And we’ve been running hard to stay in place, plugging leaks but finding new ones.” Ehrlich, who previously told the committee that she got the nickname “The Mother Grizzly of Marblehead” during her years as a public health and environmental advocate, pointed out that heating and cooling of interior spaces accounts for about 27 percent of total carbon emissions statewide. She said her bill would lay out an “actionable plan to take that down considerably” through a shift from gas to renewable thermal energy.
Department of Environmental Quality takes Colonial Pipeline to court over oil spill - The North Carolina Department of Environmental Quality filed a complaint and motion for injunctive relief against Colonial Pipeline Tuesday.The DEQ filed the complaint and motion in Mecklenburg County Superior Couty saying Colonial needs to meet its obligations as the “responsible party in the state’s largest gasoline spill.”The DEQ says it outlined in the complaint that Colonial has not provided the agency with the essential information needed to rectify the damage done to the site.“Colonial owes it to the people of North Carolina to cooperate with DEQ and be forthcoming with the information required by our statutes, starting with an accurate estimate of how much fuel was released into the environment. DEQ is committed to holding Colonial accountable and we now seek a court order directing Colonial to comply with their obligations to clean up and restore the communities impacted by the release.”NC DEQ Secretary Elizabeth BiserThe Colonial Pipeline spill was discovered in Aug. 2020 in the Oehler Nature Preserve in Mecklenburg County and the DEQ says Colonial has recovered more than 1.23 million gallons of petroleum product to date.However, the DEQ claims Colonial has not given it an updated volume estimate of the release, not defined the depth of contamination in soil and groundwater at the site and has not fully investigated the extent of per- and polyfluoralkyl contamination (PFAS) at the site.More on the complaint and motion for injunctive relief can be found here.
DEQ files Action Against Colonial Pipeline for Largest Gasoline Spill in State’s History | NC DEQ – The North Carolina Department of Environmental Quality (DEQ) today filed a Complaint and Motion for Injunctive Relief in Mecklenburg County Superior Court to force Colonial Pipeline to meet their obligations as the responsible party in the state’s largest gasoline spill. As outlined in the complaint, Colonial has failed to provide DEQ with essential information required for the appropriate remediation at the site. The release was discovered in August of 2020 in the Oehler Nature Preserve in Huntersville. To date, Colonial has recovered more than 1.23 million gallons of petroleum product from the site, but has failed to provide DEQ with an updated volume estimate of the release. Despite requirements to do so, Colonial has not satisfactorily defined the vertical extent (depth) of petroleum contamination in soil and groundwater at the site and has not fully investigated the extent of per- and polyfluoroalkyl (PFAS) contamination at the site related to the response activities. The complaint seeks a judicial action requiring Colonial Pipeline to take the following actions:
- Remove, treat or control any source of petroleum, PFAS or other contaminants that have the potential to contaminate groundwater;
- Provide DEQ with a current, revised estimate of the volume of petroleum released;
- Submit a comprehensive conceptual site model for both the petroleum release and the PFAS contamination;
- Complete site assessment activities, and submit and receive DEQ approval for a corrective action plan and proposed schedule for implementation;
- Conduct monthly sampling of nearby surface water for petroleum, pH, conductivity, dissolved oxygen, Volatile Organic Compounds, total lead and PFAS at locations determined by DEQ; and
- Provide evaluations of Colonial’s leak detection system statewide, provide locations of all pipeline Type-A collar repairs within North Carolina and remove or replace them with approved alternatives if necessary. Colonial has cited corrosion related to a Type-A sleeve repair as the cause of the Huntersville release.
Why do local environmentalists object to City Council’s proposed anti-pipeline ordinance? - Byhalia Pipeline opponents’ fight for legislation to prohibit such developments will extend at least two more weeks while the Memphis City Council addresses community concerns about last-minute changes to a proposed ordinance. The council on Tuesday delayed a final vote on two pipeline-regulating measures after Memphis’ anti-pipeline coalition asked for time to read changes meant to address what they saw as loopholes in the original language in the ordinance that applied only to the city. One ordinance is a setback measure adopted by the Shelby County Board of Commissioners last month that would require 1,500 feet between an oil pipeline and residential areas. The other, which could replace the setback ordinance for the city, is broader and would give the council final say over various projects, including oil pipelines that would cross city property, including streets. Spire STL Pipeline getting support after concerns over shutdown — The Public Utilities Commission of Missouri sent a letter to federal regulators urging them to grant Spire an immediate extension to operate the STL Pipeline, which they say is necessary to provide adequate natural gas supply to the entire region. When a winter storm knocked out power across Texas, Ray McCarty saw firsthand look at how it impacted businesses in the Show-Me State. “We had plants in southern Missouri that were shut down because they couldn’t get enough gas to the plants,” said Ray McCarty, President of the Associated Industries of Missouri. Now, McCarty is concerned it could happen all over again with the looming closure of the 65-mile Spire STL Pipeline. “We can’t imagine what the impact would be shutting that thing down when we’re going into the winter heating season,” said McCarty. “I think we’re officially in that now. We just see that as being potentially dangerous not just for the homeowners out there but think of where everyone works.”The council agreed to push their decision on the ordinances to Nov. 16 at the request of pipeline opponents, including Memphis Community Against the Pipeline, Protect Our Aquifer and The Climate Reality Project: Memphis and Mid-South Regional Chapter. Group members requested a delay so they’d have time to read the amended right-of-way ordinance, which was not made public before the meeting. The advocates took issue with oil pipelines being included in the definition of public utilities and an earlier exemption they say would have allowed for the construction of a new pipeline despite the regulation. The exemption was removed while other language was added regarding the public utility definition. The amendments were meant to patch what the coalition flagged as loopholes that could be exploited by fossil fuel companies. Now with time to review the measures, the council that was unanimous on stopping the Byhalia Connection Pipeline is wrestling with how best to regulate future projects.
Rep. Carlos Gonzalez looks to meet with Eversource, calling proposed Springfield gas pipeline a ‘potential hazard’ - -Massachusetts Rep. Carlos Gonzalez has requested a meeting with Eversource to speak on the proposed multi-million-dollar pipeline Eversource gas has proposed for Springfield and the potential hazards it could cause. “I am concerned for the potential hazard the proposal may have on the residents of Springfield. My priority should be moving to a less hazardous and greener production of energy,” Rep. Gonzalez said. The representative is also the co-chairman of the Joint Committee on Public Safety and Homeland Security. The committee is tasked with, in part, “all matters concerning laws relating to shipping or otherwise transporting energy sources.” Eversource is asking for roughly $33 million to install a secondary natural gas pipeline in Springfield and Longmeadow that will be funded, if approved, by ratepayers. “Just step back and look at the safety record for natural gas,” said William Akley, president of the Gas Business at Eversource on Oct. 26. “It is by far one of the safest means of energy available.” A spokesperson said that Gonzalez is not only interested in discussing the proposed pipeline with Eversource, but also the disruptions that have occurred throughout the city of Springfield and across the state. There has been growing opposition to the pipeline from residents in Springfield and Longmeadow stating health and safety concerns in addition to questions regarding who will pay the project’s multi-million dollar price tag. “It certainly not as safe as renewable energy,” said Verne McArthur, Springfield Climate Justice Coalition member. “We had an explosion here in Springfield, I think 8 or 10 years ago when it was Columbia gas. They blew up Lawrence. There was just a fire in Marshfield, which burned for 9 hours because of Eversource’s confusion over the location of the shutoff valves.”
Regulators approve $370M natural gas storage project despite concerns of fossil fuel investment - Rejecting concerns about continued investment in fossil fuel infrastructure, Wisconsin utility regulators have approved plans for a $370 million natural gas storage project in southeastern Wisconsin designed to provide fuel when demand spikes. We Energies and Wisconsin Gas say the dual facilities in Jefferson and Walworth counties are needed to improve reliability and resilience in light of anticipated growth in demand. They estimate the cost will be at least $224 million less than the alternatives. The Public Service Commission approved the projects despite opposition from some local residents and the Sierra Club, which argued the utilities’ growth projections are overblown and “irreconcilable” with state and national carbon reduction commitments. The group argued it would be more cost-effective to reduce demand.Compliance with the Paris climate agreement — an effort to stave off the most catastrophic impacts of climate change — will require a reduction in gas use, and the groups note that Gov. Tony Evers’ climate task force recommended against building any new fossil fuel infrastructure. Commissioners largely rejected those arguments, taking a narrower view of their mandate of ensuring safe, reliable and affordable energy service.
Propane Heating Costs Hit Highest Level Since 2011 as Winter Approaches - Propane heating costs in the U.S. rocketed to $2.59 per gallon this month, the highest level in a decade, as winter quickly approaches, the federal government said Friday.The average cost of propane during the first four weeks of the current winter season, which begins in October, was 49% higher than last year, according to an Energy Information Administration (EIA) report. The agency noted that the low propane supply is a major reason for the increased prices.“U.S. propane and propylene inventories are starting this winter season lower than in recent years; weekly U.S. inventories are averaging 28% lower than the same time last year and 21% lower than their recent five-year (2015–2020) average,” the report stated. The price paid for heating has historically peaked between January and February, the EIA data showed. Heating costs are generally lower in October when demand is down and it is still warm in many parts of the country. The surge in costs could greatly affect certain states — including Iowa, Wisconsin, Maine and Minnesota — where more than 10% of all homes are heated using propane during the winter months. Overall, however, roughly 5% of all U.S. households rely on propane for heat. Still, heating oil and natural gas prices are expected to rise 43% and 30% respectively, an Oct. 13 EIA report concluded. “Not only are we seeing inflation in, you know, groceries and gasoline, but we’re going to see it in home heating as well,” Republican Oklahoma Rep. Stephanie Bice said this week during a roundtable on rising energy costs hosted by House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy. “And this continuation of what I would consider to be sort of an assault on the industry is going to have a rippling effect,” she continued. “And we need to be mindful about looking at how we address this long term.” Republican lawmakers have roundly criticized the Biden administration for its energy policies targeting fossil fuel pipelines and drilling permits nationwide. Since January, President Joe Biden has committed to cutting emissions 50% by 2030, having a completely carbon-free electric grid by 2035 and achieving net-zero emissions by 2050.
Xcel unveils goal of carbon-neutral natural gas by 2050 -Xcel Energy is aiming for "net-zero" carbon emissions from its natural gas system by 2050, an ambitious goal but one with steep challenges. The company joined just a handful of U.S. gas utilities Monday by announcing plans to extricate carbon in Minnesota and other states — including by replacing some gas with hydrogen, a cleaner alternative. "It is really an evolution from the company's perspective," said Bob Frenzel, Xcel's CEO. "This is just the next big sector of the economy where we can provide leadership in reducing emissions." Minneapolis-based Xcel, Minnesota's second-largest gas utility and largest electricity provider, was one of the first U.S. companies to set goals for 100% carbon-free power by 2050. Meeting that electricity goal will be difficult enough for Xcel; the gas-greening project is likely to be even more so. Fossil-fuel-generated electricity can be more easily — and affordably — replaced by renewable power than natural gas can be for heating. Cleaner substitutes for natural gas are now quite expensive or are criticized for not being environmentally beneficial enough. "Xcel Energy's announcement that it will set goals to reach net-zero greenhouse gas emissions from its gas business is commendable, but it is just a start,"Joe Dammel, gas decarbonization director at St. Paul clean energy advocacy group Fresh Energy, said in a statement. "In order tomeetour climate goals, the gas system must decarbonize by midcentury,which is why it's crucial we focus now on what the future of gas will look like and make the right investments." Net-zero generally refers to the notion that increases in carbon emission from an industrial process are balanced by an equivalent amount of carbon reductions. "We are going to limit the amount of greenhouse gas emissions (from gas) as much as possible," Frenzel said. He added, "We are not going to do anything that jeopardizes the reliability of the system or affordability of the product."
Enterprise's Natural Gas Volumes Hit Record, with Another Haynesville Acadian Expansion Set - Enterprise Products Partners LP once again is seeking to expand its Acadian natural gas system in Louisiana amid increased activity among its producer customers in the Haynesville Shale. Enterprise is working to add 400 MMcf/d of capacity to the Acadian Gas Pipeline System, a 1,300 mile-long conduit linking Louisiana and Gulf of Mexico gas to local distribution companies, electric utility plants and industrial customers primarily in the Baton Rouge/New Orleans/Mississippi River corridor area. The network’s Acadian Haynesville Extension, which would boost capacity to 2.1 Bcf/d from 1.8 Bcf/d, and the 1.1 Bcf/d Gillis Lateral are expected to be completed by the end of the year. Co-CEO Jim Teague said the Acadian pipeline system is strategically located to move growing Haynesville and Cotton Valley gas supplies to “growing and higher-valued” industrial and liquefied natural gas markets. The CEO did not name names, but Haynesville pure-play Comstock Resources Inc. is a major shipper on the Haynesville extension and on Wednesday announced plans to accelerate drilling in the play, with average output of 1.42-1.45 Bcfe/d, nearly 100% weighted to natural gas. At the same time, Enterprise is seeing “new opportunities arise” from potential customers in the Cotton Valley, a tight gas play in northeast Texas and northwest Louisiana, just above the Haynesville/Bossier formation. Enterprise’s Acadian Gas System and the 357-mile Haynesville Gathering System fetched a combined $10 million increase in gross operating margin during the quarter. This was primarily because of higher capacity reservation fees and higher transportation volumes, which increased by an aggregate 543 billion Btu/d.
Louisiana has bet big on liquefied natural gas. Is it a good bet? -- The construction site on the horizon, a giant tangle of cranes and storage tanks on the edge of the Gulf in Cameron Parish, is a monument to Louisiana’s embrace of the liquefied natural gas industry, which now exports around the world from here. LNG has been touted as an important bridge fuel that burns far cleaner than coal, helping wean developing nations away from the dirtiest sources of electricity as the world gradually moves toward renewable energy.But LNG is also an important source of greenhouse gas emissions, and some question if the trade-off in pollution and major tax breaks amounts to a good investment for the state. The industry will surely factor into discussions as world leaders gather for a climate summit this week in Scotland, a meeting that Gov. John Bel Edwards will also attend. At the same time, Lake Charles will host a major LNG industry conference from Tuesday through Thursday.With two huge LNG export facilities up and running, both in Cameron Parish, Louisiana now has the highest output capacity in the country, with more on the way. Cameron Parish Port Director Clair Hebert Marceaux has frequently described the industry in these terms: If the parish were a country, it would be the world’s third-largest LNG exporter after Qatar and Australia.Edwards, who will leave office in two years, has convened a task force to come up with a plan to reduce emissions of climate-altering greenhouse gases in a state that relies heavily on the petrochemical and energy industries, which are major sources of pollution. But he nonetheless says oil and gas, including LNG, will continue to play a role. He has promoted the state’s plans for carbon capture and storage technology, which is controversial among environmental activists. “I believe that LNG has a tremendous role to play,” Edwards said Thursday on a visit to the Lake Charles area before his departure to Scotland. “Every time anywhere in the world a coal-powered plant is converted or decommissioned in lieu of a gas-powered plant, natural gas, then that helps the environment.”
Amid major industry expansion, fears over climate change, LNG leaders gather in Lake Charles - – Southwest Louisiana has quietly become the nation’s largest exporter of liquefied natural gas – much to environmentalists’ dismay – and industry leaders gathered in this city Wednesday to discuss how best to move ahead at a time of deep concern over climate change. The need for the industry to reduce greenhouse gas emissions was a key theme at a conference that brought together state and local officials along with executives from companies involved in LNG production. The previous day, environmental activists gathered near the conference venue to draw attention to the dangers they say the industry poses.The conference came as this week’s global climate summit continued in Scotland. Gov. John Bel Edwards, who has touted the benefits of LNG as a transitional fuel, was among those attending the summit in Glasgow aimed at turning the tide on global warming, which particularly threatens Louisiana through rising sea levels and more intense hurricanes. The state and LNG companies tout the fact that natural gas burns far cleaner than coal, which they say make it a viable alternative for electricity production as countries move gradually toward renewable energy. Liquefying it through a supercooling process – which in itself requires large amounts of electricity – makes it easy to transport. LNG companies have flocked to southwest Louisiana due to a combination of natural gas supply, pipeline infrastructure and deep-water access for shipping. They have also received big tax breaks through the state’s Industrial Tax Exemption Program. The state has embraced the industry because of the multi-billion-dollar investments and jobs it brings, as Lt. Gov. Billy Nungesser made clear at the conference. Two export terminals are operating out of Cameron Parish in the state’s southwest, with expansions planned, and at least five others have been approved but are not yet up and running statewide. Another three have been proposed but not yet approved. “I was in the oil and gas industry before I retired, so I understand the importance of having elected officials to stand up for you and whatever your needs are,” Nungesser said in his speech. “So use me and my office to help you in any of your endeavors to make sure your project moves forward quickly.”
U.S. natgas drops over 4% on rising output, lower demand next week -(Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures fell over 4% to a one-week low on Monday on rising output, lower demand next week than previously projected and growing expectations the United States will have more than enough gas in storage for the winter heating season. That price decline occurred despite forecasts for colder weather and more heating demand this week than previously expected and a 5% jump in gas prices in Europe that should keep U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports strong. Since the summer, global gas prices have soared to record highs as utilities scramble for LNG cargoes to refill low stockpiles in Europe and meet rising demand in Asia, where energy shortfalls have caused power blackouts in China. U.S. futures also climbed, reaching a 12-year high in early October, on expectations LNG demand will remain strong for months to come. Price gains in the United States, however, were restrained compared with overseas markets because the United States has more than enough gas in storage for winter and ample production to meet domestic and export demand. Prices in Europe and Asia were about five times higher than in the United States. U.S. stockpiles were currently about 3% below the five-year average for this time of year. In Europe, analysts said stockpiles were about 15% below normal. After dropping over 6% in each of the prior two sessions, front-month gas futures fell 24.0 cents, or 4.4%, on Monday to settle at $5.186 per million British thermal units (mmBtu), their lowest close since Oct. 21. After the close, the front-month fell over 5% on Monday. As the amount of gas in U.S. stockpiles keeps rising, speculators have cut their net long positions on the New York Mercantile and Intercontinental Exchanges over the past four weeks to their lowest since June 2020, according to data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). Data provider Refinitiv said output in the U.S. Lower 48 states averaged 94.1 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) in October, up from 92.7 bcfd in September. That compares with a monthly record of 95.4 bcfd in November 2019. Output hit 96.2 bcfd on Oct. 29, its highest level in a day since hitting a record of 96.6 bcfd in November 2019. Refinitiv projected average U.S. gas demand, including exports, would rise from 96.4 bcfd this week to 100.4 bcfd next week as more homes and businesses crank up their heaters. The forecast for this week was higher than Refinitiv projected on Friday, while its outlook for next week was lower. The amount of gas flowing to U.S. LNG export plants has averaged 10.5 bcfd so far in October, up from 10.4 bcfd in September. Feedgas to LNG export plants hit 11.8 bcfd on Oct. 29, its highest level in a day since May.
Despite Improving Supply Picture, Cold Snaps Boost Most November Natural Gas Bidweek Prices Beyond $6.00 -- Natural gas prices mounted hefty gains for November bidweek trading amid uncertainty over the potential for colder weather in the coming weeks. Strong export demand fueled by an urgent need to restock global inventories ahead of winter also aided the rally for U.S. markets. NGI’s November 2021 Bidweek National Avg. surged 63.5 cents month/month to $6.130/MMBtu. This compares with the November Nymex futures settlement of $6.202 and NGI’s November 2020 National Average of $2.745. The November 2021 Bidweek trading took place Oct. 25-27, reflecting NGI’s decision in May to move to a three-day bidweek trading period.Despite the multi-year highs set along the Nymex futures strip in recent days, the December contract has failed to sustain the momentum since taking over the prompt-month position. December futures plunged 77.2 cents between last Thursday and Friday, and then opened Monday’s session down another 10-plus cents amid an increasingly bearish November weather outlook.After trending slightly warmer at the end of last week, weather models remained on that track through the weekend and into Monday. Bespoke Weather Services said the warmup forecast for the middle third of November could be brief, as is this week’s cold front. However, the gas market is at a time of year when weather becomes a dominant force in price action.Indeed, the December Nymex futures contract settled Monday at $5.186, off 24.0 cents from Friday’s close. Against that backdrop, and with chilly weather in the Midwest and East over the next several days, Chicago Citygate November bidweek prices jumped 59.0 cents month/month to average $6.290. OGT was up 51.5 cents to $6.085.Gains were even steeper farther east, where Texas Eastern M-3, Delivery led Appalachia higher. November bidweek prices averaged $5.880, up $1.20 on the month.
Natural Gas Futures, Cash Prices Rebound Amid New Expectations for Weather-Driven Demand - Natural gas futures on Tuesday gained ground for the first time in four sessions as overseas supply shortages converged with forecasts for colder weather and stronger domestic demand by mid-November. The December Nymex contract gained 35.6 cents day/day and settled at $5.542/MMBtu. January rose 33.5 cents to $5.640. NGI’s Spot Gas National Avg. gained 29.0 cents to $5.310, led higher by prices in the Northeast, where winter cold and snow are expected this week, as well as gains in Texas. While temperatures were seasonally comfortable over much of the Lower 48 Tuesday and expected to remain so for much of the week, updated forecasts called for more widespread chills near the middle of November. This was enough to offset continued strong production estimates – near 94 Bcf on Tuesday, close to 2021 highs – and shift traders’ focus to the onset of winter demand. Bespoke Weather Services said its latest outlook for the first half of November still showed gas-weighted degree days below historic averages – the source of downward pressure on futures Monday and late last week. “However, we see changes around the middle of the month in the projected pattern that suggest there is risk to move back colder down the road, as a new eastern U.S. trough arrives on the scene underneath a redeveloping block in the north Atlantic,” Bespoke said. “While we have discussed the possibility of colder variability later in the month, the pattern seems to be evolving faster…This kind of variability keeps the pattern rather neutral, overall, but we view today’s changes, specifically, as bullish.” If winter chills arrive by the middle of the month, the firm added, “prices can continue to advance higher.”
UPDATE 1-U.S. natgas jumps near 7% on profit taking, strong LNG demand (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures jumped almost 7% on Tuesday as short sellers took some profits after the contract dropped about 16% during the prior three sessions and as higher global prices keep demand for U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports strong. That price increase came despite rising output and forecasts for milder weather and lower heating demand next week than previously expected. In October, global gas prices soared to record highs as utilities scrambled for LNG cargoes to refill low stockpiles in Europe and meet rising demand in Asia, where energy shortfalls have caused power blackouts in China. Price gains in the United States, however, were restrained compared with overseas markets because the United States has more than enough gas in storage for winter and ample production to meet domestic and export demand. Prices in Europe and Asia were about four times higher than in the United States. U.S. stockpiles were currently about 3% below the five-year average for this time of year. In Europe, analysts said stockpiles were about 15% below normal. Front-month gas futures rose 35.6 cents, or 6.9%, to settle at $5.542 per million British thermal units (mmBtu). On Monday, the contract closed at its lowest since Oct. 21. The Biden administration unveiled plans to slash emissions of the greenhouse gas methane across the United States, starting with oil and gas wells, pipelines and other infrastructure as part of its broader climate change strategy. Data provider Refinitiv said output in the U.S. Lower 48 states averaged 94.9 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in November, up from 94.1 bcfd in October. That compares with a monthly record of 95.4 bcfd in November 2019.
U.S. natgas futures rise 2% on soaring global prices — - U.S. natural gas futures rose about 2% on Wednesday after soaring 7% in the prior session on forecasts for higher heating demand this week and expectations a jump in global gas prices will keep demand for U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports strong. That price increase came despite near record U.S. output and forecasts for milder weather and lower heating demand next week than previously expected. Analysts expect U.S. gas inventories will top 3.6 trillion cubic feet (tcf) by the start of the winter heating season in November, which they said would be a comfortable level even though it falls shy of the five-year average of 3.7 tcf. U.S. stockpiles were currently about 3% below the five-year average for this time of year. In Europe, analysts said stockpiles were about 15% below normal. Front-month gas futures rose 12.8 cents, or 2.3%, to settle at $5.670 per million British thermal units (mmBtu). Data provider Refinitiv said output in the U.S. Lower 48 states averaged 95.6 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in November, up from 94.1 bcfd in October. That compares with a monthly record of 95.4 bcfd in November 2019. Refinitiv projected average U.S. gas demand, including exports, would drop from 97.8 bcfd this week to 94.4 bcfd next week as the weather turns milder. The forecast for this week was higher and next week was lower than Refinitiv projected on Tuesday. The amount of gas flowing to U.S. LNG export plants averaged 10.9 bcfd so far in November, up from 10.5 bcfd in October. That compares with a monthly record of 11.5 bcfd in April. Feedgas to Freeport LNG's plant in Texas fell to 0.6 bcfd, its lowest since September when Hurricane Nicholas cut power to the facility and knocked it off line. Gas flowing to Cheniere Energy Inc's Sabine Pass in Louisiana, meanwhile, rose to 4.2 bcfd, its highest since April, prompting some traders to guess that the new Train 6 was producing its first LNG. With gas prices near $25 per mmBtu in Europe TRNLTTFMc1 and $31 in Asia JKMc1, versus around $6 in the United States, traders said buyers around the world will keep purchasing all the LNG the United States can produce.
December Natural Gas Futures See-Saw After EIA Prints in-Line Storage Injection -The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) on Thursday reported an injection of 63 Bcf natural gas into storage for the week ended Oct. 29. The result was on par with market expectations and elicited a muted response from futures traders. Ahead of the EIA report, the December contract was up 7.2 cents at $5.742/MMBtu. The prompt month jumped to $5.796 when the EIA data was released at 10:30 ET. However, it descended back to $5.665 after 30 minutes of post-announcement trading, down a half-cent. Temperatures during the storage report week were warmer than normal – and generally comfortable — minimizing demand and enabling utilities to stow away more gas for use in the coming winter, NatGasWeather said. Prior to the EIA report, a Reuters survey showed injection estimates ranging from 47 Bcf to 71 Bcf, with a median build of 64 Bcf. A Wall Street Journal survey landed at an average build expectation of 64 Bcf, with estimates ranging from increases of 47 Bcf to 74 Bcf. Estimates submitted to Bloomberg produced a median 66 Bcf injection estimate, with a range of 57 Bcf to 74 Bcf. NGI’s model predicted a 68 Bcf injection. EIA recorded a 27 Bcf injection for the year-earlier period, while the five-year average is a build of 38 Bcf. The print marked the eighth straight week that EIA’s reported build narrowed the current inventory deficit versus the five-year average. Working gas in storage was 3,611 Bcf, according to EIA estimates. Stocks were 313 Bcf less than in the comparable week last year but just 101 Bcf below the five-year average of 3,712 Bcf.
Natural Gas Forward Prices Soften on Lack of Cold, but Strong Export Demand to Continue - A steep sell-off early in the Oct. 28-Nov. 3 period because of generally unsupportive weather sent natural gas forward prices tumbling by double digits. December forward prices plunged an average 17.0 cents, while the balance of winter (December-March) slid 16.0 cents, according to NGI’s Forward Look. Summer (April-October) prices also softened, but losses were smaller and averaged only 8.0 cents as storage inventories in the United States have improved dramatically over the past two months. At the same time, weather forecasts continue to kick sustained cold weather down the road, setting up an adequate supply trajectory through the winter season that would lessen the urgency in restocking next summer. Despite the lack of widespread cold in the Lower 48, forecasts do show at least some bouts of chilly weather over the next month. NatGasWeather said a weather system is expected to linger over the Midwest and East through Saturday, resulting in crisp overnight temperatures in the 20s to 30s. [Want to know how global LNG demand impacts North American fundamentals? To find out, subscribe to LNG Insight.] The cold snap did little to prevent forward prices from weakening across the curve. Forward Look data showed Chicago Citygate December prices sliding 9.0 cents from Oct. 28-Nov. 3 to reach $6.001. However, basis improved by 2.0 cents during that period as benchmark Henry Hub posted slightly more pronounced declines. Chicago’s balance-of-winter strip also was down 9.0 cents to $6.06, while summer prices averaged 7.0 cents lower at $3.880, according to Forward Look. On the East Coast, Transco Zone 6 December forward prices slid 14.0 cents from Oct. 28-Nov. 3 to reach $7.652, and the balance of winter tumbled 24.0 cents to $9.00. The summer strip was down 7.0 cents to $3.350. Upstream in Appalachia, Eastern Gas South December fell 10.0 cents to $5.129, as did the balance of winter, which landed at $5.090, Forward Look data showed. Summer prices averaged $3.190, off 7.0 cents for the period. Beyond this week, weather forecasts showed mild/warm high pressure strengthening and expanding over the eastern two-thirds of the country beginning Sunday and continuing through the coming week. Highs were seen reaching the mid-50s, easing national demand to “very light levels,” according to NatGasWeather. There’s still expected to be a relatively chilly weather system exiting the West late in the next several days, the forecaster said. The system would initially track across the Midwest, then into the East the weekend of Nov. 14-16. Weather data has been bouncing between cooler and warmer trends, but demand should track closer to normal either way. Warmer weather is likely to follow, though, keeping storage withdrawals to a minimum for much of November.
The Oil Omen? First Large US Shale Driller Pledges Flat Output In 2022 - Diamondback said it planned to pump some 221,000 to 225,000 barrels of crude daily. For full 2021, Diamondback said production would come in at between 222,000 to 223,000 bpd Most large shale drillers are adopting the same approach in order to keep their shareholders happy after years of burning cash to boost production to a maximum. In the release of its third-quarter results, Diamondback said it planned to pump some 221,000 to 225,000 barrels of crude daily. For full 2021, Diamondback said production would come in at between 222,000 to 223,000 bpd. “As we move into 2022, we are still seeing excess oil supply and varying demand recovery profiles across the globe. As such, we remain committed to capital discipline and our plan to return excess Free Cash Flow to our stockholders,” said the company’s chief executive, Travis Stice, echoing a widely shared attitude in the shale oil and gas industry. “Therefore, we are committing to maintaining our fourth quarter 2021 Permian oil volumes throughout next year and we believe this can be accomplished by spending the amount of capital implied by our fourth quarter 2021 guidance run-rate,” Stice also said, noting this approach would allow the company to return more cash to shareholders, pay down more debt, and maximize free cash flow. Most large shale drillers are adopting the same approach in order to keep their shareholders happy after years of burning cash to boost production to a maximum. While this new approach of restraint is welcomed by shareholders, the general public—and drivers specifically—have no reason for joy. The strict capital discipline of large shale players means that U.S. oil production will be slow to grow, and this means retail fuel prices will remain elevated for an extended period. Diamondback reported adjusted profits of $536 million for the third quarter, which translated into earnings per share of $2.94, exceeding analyst expectations for EPS of $2.77. The company also announced an 11-percent increase in its annual dividend thanks to the robust financial results.
Continental Resources to buy Texas land from Pioneer for $3.25 bln (Reuters) - U.S. oil and gas producer Continental Resources Inc is nearing a deal to acquire the Delaware Basin assets of peer Pioneer Natural Resources for more than $3 billion, people familiar with the matter said on Wednesday.Continental would add to its existing operations in the Bakken of North Dakota and Oklahoma's SCOOP/STACK shale formations through the acquisition, which could be announced by the companies when they report quarterly earnings later on Wednesday, the sources said.Reuters reported in September that Pioneer was seeking to sell the assets in a bid to streamline its business and reduce debt after two big acquisitions this year.
Uptick in Permian Activity Lifts Latest Tally of U.S. Drilling - - An uptick in oil-directed drilling activity focused in the Permian Basin helped lift the U.S. rig count six units higher to 550 for the week ended Friday (Nov. 5), according to updated numbers from oilfield services provider Baker Hughes Co. (BKR). The net increase in domestic drilling resulted entirely from the onshore oil patch. Natural gas-directed rigs held steady at 100 in the United States, while the Gulf of Mexico count was also unchanged at 13, according to the BKR numbers, which are based partly on data from Enverus. The combined U.S. count finished the week exactly 250 units higher than the 300 rigs running at this time a year ago. Horizontal units increased by nine domestically, while directional rigs increased by one. Partially offsetting was a four-rig decline in vertical units. The Canadian rig count declined six rigs for the week, falling to 160, versus 86 in the year-earlier period. Net declines there included three oil-directed rigs and three natural gas-directed. Broken down by major basin, the Permian saw its drilling tally rise three units to 271 for the week, up from 147 in the year-ago period. The Arkoma Woodford and Marcellus Shale each added a rig week/week, while one rig exited the Mississippian Lime during the period, according to BKR. Among states, Texas unsurprisingly led with a four-rig increase, mirroring the gain in the Permian. New Mexico, which also partly underlies the Permian, dropped one unit from its total for the week.
US oil, gas rig count climbs 15 to 674 as oil drilling activity accelerates: Enverus - The US oil and gas rig count climbed 15 to 674 in the week ended Nov. 3, energy analytics and software company Enverus said, as drilling activity in most oil-focused basins tested fresh pandemic highs. The number of rigs chasing primarily oil moved 16 higher to 528, marking the largest one-week increase since March and pushing the number of active oil rigs to the highest since April 2020.The number of rigs chasing mostly gas declined by 1 to 146. The Denver-Julesburg play saw the biggest weekly jump, with operators adding three rigs for a total 16. The increase saw the basin rig count break out of its recent range and put it at the highest level since the week ended June 16. The Eagle Ford rig count climbed two for a total 60, and Bakken operators added a single rig for a total 32. Rig counts in both plays were each the highest since April 2020. In the SCOOP-STACK, the rig count climbed one to 39, the highest since the week ended March 11, 2020. Notably, the number of rigs active in the Permian Basin was steady at 271, holding just below the basin’s recent peak of 272 seen in early October. Despite an overall decline in gas-focused activity, rig counts in the nation’s top gas-focused plays were flat or higher on the week. The Haynesville basin rig count climbed one to 51, suggesting the rig count decline seen there in late summer may have bottomed. Rig counts in the Marcellus and Utica shale plays were steady on the week at 33 and 13, respectively. Projected 2022 US rig count increases of 20%-25% may not be enough to accommodate demand based on upstream producer statements about their drilling needs for next year, CEO Andy Hendricks of US land driller “The market for the most capable rigs in the US is officially tight,” Hendricks said. “We’re sold out of [the newest, most capable Patterson-trademarked] rigs in the Permian. We’ve seen leading edge day rates move up in the last month and I expect that trend to continue.” Patterson has a total of 46 premiere rigs in the Permian, of which 41 are currently working, and four of the remaining five rigs are already committed to return to work. “We are effectively are sold out of these rigs in the Permian basin,” Hendricks said.
Biden unveils new rules to curb methane, a potent greenhouse gas, from oil and gas operations - More than 100 countries have signed the Global Methane Pledge, which requires a 30 percent cut in methane emissions by 2030, one of the Biden administration’s priorities for the COP26 climate summit in Glasgow, Scotland. The pledge’s signatories now represent nearly half of human-caused methane emissions. On Tuesday, the Biden administration also unveiled a sweeping set of domestic policies to cut emissions of methane from oil and gas operations across the United States. The proposals, announced at the U.N. climate summit, represent one of the president’s most consequential efforts to combat climate change. Proposed rules from the Environmental Protection Agency would establish standards for old wells, impose more frequent and stringent leak monitoring, and require the capture of natural gas that is found alongside oil and is often released into the atmosphere. They mark the first time the federal government has moved to comprehensively tackle the seepage of methane from U.S. oil and gas infrastructure. President Biden told delegates in Glasgow that cutting methane emissions is essential to keeping global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit) above levels in the late 1800s before widespread industrialization. He said he hoped the world would surpass the pledges made. “Together we’re committed to collectively reduce our methane by 30 percent by 2030,” Biden said. “And I think we could probably go beyond that.” Methane, the main component of natural gas, is the world’s second-largest contributor to climate change among greenhouse gases. Although it dissipates more quickly than carbon dioxide, it is 80 times as powerful during the first 20 years after it is released into the atmosphere.
Methane Rules Would Cost U.S. Producers Over $1 Billion a Year - U.S. oil and natural gas producers would have to spend a negligible fraction of profits to comply with tougher methane rules proposed by the Biden administration. The measures would cost up to $1.2 billion annually, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency announced Tuesday, and would be spread out over hundreds of thousand of wells. That’s a sliver of the more than $70 billion in projected earnings for the 10 largest American drillers alone this year.
EPA rule would force Texas oil and gas producers to cut methane emissions | The Texas Tribune --The Environmental Protection Agency proposed tighter controls Tuesday on the oil and gas industry’s emissions of methane, one of the most potent greenhouse gases that causes climate change.As world leaders meet in Scotland this week to seek international agreements to slow and mitigate the effects of climate change, federal regulators released a draft of a new rule to require oil and gas companies to monitor and reduce emissions of methane, a gas that is released during the drilling of oil wells and can be leaked from oil and gas equipment.“It is now abundantly clear that America is back and leading by example in confronting the climate crisis with bold ambition,” EPA Administrator Michael Regan said in a statement. “With this historic action, EPA is addressing existing sources from the oil and natural gas industry nationwide, in addition to updating rules for new sources, to ensure robust and lasting cuts in pollution across the country.”The rule, if approved, could require companies to use specialized equipment to identify the colorless gas on a quarterly basis and repair leaks, as well as impose tighter restrictions on controlling emissions from both new and old wells. The EPA estimates the rule could reduce methane emissions by 41 million tons by 2035. The agency intends to issue a final rule before the end of 2022.Texas will play a key role in the nation’s efforts to reduce methane emissions. The state produces the largest share of the nation’s oil, a major contributor to global methane emissions. But state leaders have protested calls to shift the energy industry — a key pillar of the state’s economy — away from its reliance on producing the greenhouse gas-emitting fossil fuels.
BP Looks Dirtier Than Exxon in New Data From Giant U.S. Oil Field - BP Plc aspires to be the oil industry’s climate champion. Last year, the London-based company became the first of the world’s supermajors to embrace an eventual phase-out of all greenhouse gas emissions.But a Bloomberg News analysis of new data collected from the Permian Basin, the largest U.S. oil field, shows that BP’s operations are among the dirtiest of dozens of companies operating there. The same analysis shows Exxon Mobil Corp., which has resisted a net-zero target, is among the cleanest.The findings are based on research by the nonprofit Environmental Defense Fund that offers an unprecedented chance to compare major companies’ performances across tens of thousands of wells in the oil-rich region of West Texas and New Mexico. They’re far from comprehensive, though, covering only a portion of a single basin over a few days. Both companies operate in dozens of countries around the world.Methane is the chief component of natural gas, often produced in such large quantities in the Permian that pipelines can’t handle the volume. Instead, it spills unburned into the air, where its climate-warming power ismore than 80 times greater than carbon dioxide’s over a 20-year period. Last year, researchers found that oil and gas activity in the basin was responsible for about 2.7 million metric tons of methane a year, or more than those of all but eight countries in the world.The environmental group hired Carbon Mapper, a nonprofit affiliated with NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory, to fly over a 3,200-square-mile area with an infrared spectrometer that can detect the otherwise invisible gas. Over 11 days in July and August, Carbon Mapper spotted more than 900 methane plumes pouring from tanks, compressors and pipelines. Later, EDF scientists identified the companies that owned the equipment and made the findings available online.
Oklahoma oil industry members call Biden emissions plan 'unnecessary red tape'— Oklahomans are reacting to the potential plan to monitor methane emissions in the oil and gas industry with some calling it unnecessary and others call it a first step to progress.President Biden announced a proposal Tuesday to monitor and eliminate methane leaks from new and existing wells and pipelines. The plan is an extension of an existing U.S. Environmental Protection Agency rule that only regulated new equipment. The proposal also establishes monitoring of compressor stations and gas-fired pneumatic controllers, additional sources of methane leaks.The EPA predicts the plan would eliminate 41 million tons of methane emissions between 2023 to 2035.Brook Simmons, President of the Petroleum Alliance of Oklahoma, said the Biden administration and Democrats are attacking the oil and gas industry with the proposal."The oil and natural gas industry is 100% being targeted by the left and by the advisor and administration for extinction," said Simmons. "They want to get rid of the US oil and natural gas industry and offshore that production."He said every time there is "duplicative or unnecessary red tape" there is a hindrance to investment, expansion, and employment."We don't have enough natural gas and oil to meet demand and we are going to need every barrel of oil," he said. "Otherwise, low income and working Oklahoma families are going to pay."Oklahoma has already put forward efforts to reduce emissions and clean up "orphaned wells" in the state. According to the EPA, Oklahoma has reduced CO2 emissions by 30% since 2005.Companies in the state have also made an effort to limit their footprint. The Public Service Company of Oklahoma has already lowered emissions over the past decade and made promises to the EPA to shut down its last coal-burning unit in Oklahoma by 2026.Simmons said this proposal would hinder efforts in the state.
North Dakota Republicans blast Biden's methane proposal; Dakota Resource Council lauds plan --North Dakota Republican officials on Tuesday denounced the Biden administration's wide-ranging plan to reduce methane emissions, saying it will harm the energy industry and drive up home heating costs for consumers. Democratic President Joe Biden announced his methane reduction plan at a United Nations climate summit in Glasgow, Scotland. Biden pledged to work with the European Union and dozens of other nations to reduce overall methane emissions worldwide by 30% by 2030. The centerpiece of U.S. actions is a long-awaited rule by the Environmental Protection Agency to target reductions from existing oil and gas wells nationwide, rather than focus only on new wells as previous regulations have done, The Associated Press reported. EPA Administrator Michael Regan said the new rule would be stricter than a 2016 standard set under President Barack Obama, which was rolled back during Republican President Donald Trump's administration but reinstated by Congress last summer. Gov. Doug Burgum said he thinks the way to address methane emissions "is through innovation, not redundant and burdensome regulations that will only drive energy production overseas where it is produced less cleanly and efficiently.” Burgum also touts innovation as a way to make North Dakota carbon neutral by the end of the decade -- a goal he announced last spring. Carbon neutrality involves striking a balance between CO2 released from within the state and the amount of emissions contained or offset in some way. Burgum envisions meeting the goal while maintaining robust oil and coal industries in North Dakota. The governor did not mention methane in announcing the goal. On Tuesday, he said, "The Biden administration should be allowing industry to reinvest in existing and future infrastructure to protect the environment and human health while also reducing regulatory costs.” North Dakota's all-Republican congressional delegation also blasted the methane proposal. Sen. John Hoeven, a member of the Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee, touted recent gains in North Dakota in the capture of natural gas in the oil fields, leading to reduced wasteful flaring. "We can replicate that success across the nation by providing regulatory relief and empowering the energy industry to invest in gas-gathering lines, transmission pipelines and the facilities needed to capture and make good use of methane," Hoeven said. Sen. Kevin Cramer, a member of the Senate Environment and Public Works Committee, called Biden's plan "another harmful strike at America's energy producers" and also touted innovation as a better means. Rep. Kelly Armstrong, who serves on the House Energy and Commerce Committee, said the federal plan "will stifle innovation in states like North Dakota."
North Dakota regulators grant temporary approval to pipeline lacking permit -North Dakota regulators have granted temporary approval to a short natural gas pipeline in McKenzie County operating since 2014 without a state permit. It’s unclear why the 2.6-mile Caliber Midstream pipeline did not have a permit from the North Dakota Public Service Commission. PSC Chair Julie Fedorchak said she was unsure of the reason, and the company did not immediately respond to a Tribune request for comment. The pipeline connects Caliber’s Hay Butte Plant, a natural gas processing facility, with the nearby Northern Border Pipeline. Northern Border is a major export pipeline taking gas produced in the Bakken and Canada to markets in the middle of the United States. Caliber is planning changes to the 2.6-mile pipeline and wants to allow gas to flow either direction, including from Northern Border to a trucking facility next to its processing plant. Compressed natural gas fueling takes place at the trucking facility, and gas delivered there is used as a fuel in fracking operations, Caliber said in its application for temporary approval from the PSC. The company plans to soon file a comprehensive siting application with the commission to secure a formal permit for the pipeline.
After Trump, an agency key to Biden’s climate agenda tries to rebuild. The Bureau of Land Management, whose headquarters was shifted out West, remains hobbled as it seeks to curb oil and gas drilling. Air-quality specialist Theresa Alexander had spent nearly three decades working for the federal government in the nation’s capital when Trump appointees in the Bureau of Land Management forced her to choose: Move your life to Colorado or lose your job. As she thought about abandoning her home in suburban Maryland that she shared with her son, his wife and her five grandchildren, she developed a pain in her gut so intense she worried she had cancer. So Alexander turned in her badge, cleaned out her desk and joined the exodus last year of Interior Department staffers leaving their jobs managing America’s public lands.Among the 287 BLM headquarters employees who quit or retired — nearly 90 percent of those ordered to move out West — were wildlife biologists, foresters, fisheries experts and other scientists and specialists who would have played key roles in President Biden’s ambitious agenda to fight climate change and conserve 30 percent of U.S. lands and waters by 2030.Alexander worked on policies that assessed greenhouse gas emissions from oil and mining projects. She and her colleagues were also responsible for ensuring compliance with the Clean Air Act on public lands. Several members of her team quit, along with others who protected endangered species and wildlife habitat or set long-term policy.“We were pawns in a political game,” she said.Two years after President Donald Trump decided to move the bureau’s headquarters to Grand Junction, a small city in the mountains of Colorado with no direct flight links with D.C., Biden plans to bring it back. But the agency remains severely depleted, according to interviews with more than 20 current and former Interior Department employees, hobbling the Biden administration’s work. As it plans a multiyear shift from fossil fuels to renewable energy on public lands, employees — several of whom spoke on the condition of anonymity to avoid retaliation — say the exodus of senior leaders has drained the agency of experienced scientists and regulators. Replacements have struggled to get up to speed. Divisions that once coordinated across cubicles in the same D.C. office are now more isolated from one another after headquarters positions were scattered across about a dozen cities in the West.
Colorado drilling company behind leaks, spills will pay a fraction of the massive fine it initially faced - Front Range oil and gas company KP Kauffman has agreed to a comprehensive clean-up of spills and release from wells, tanks, and flowlines at 74 sites under a “global” remediation plan and to pay a $795,000 fine – just about a fifth of what state regulators initially sought. The compliance agreement was approved by the Colorado Oil and Gas Conservation Commission Friday, after weeks of negotiation between the company and the commission staff. The plan calls for the company, also known as KPK, to undertake a comprehensive inspection of its flow line system, remediate sites, and improve staff training. It has five years to complete the plan and pay the fine. The company must keep $150,000 in an account dedicated to spills and site remediation and replenish the account monthly. State Assistant Attorney General Caitlin Stafford, who represented the commission, called settlement “a detailed and comprehensive action plan” that is “tough but fair.” John Jacus, the attorney for KPK, said the agreement gives the company “enough flexibility to meet their obligations.” The commission staff had brought a sweeping enforcement action against KPK, as a chronic polluter, in a 70-page litany of 20 alleged operating violations at seven sites, including improperly storing wastes and falling to report and clean-up spills.
Less than half of proposed Wyoming oil and gas leases recommended for upcoming sale – Of the 459 Wyoming parcels being considered for the upcoming federal oil and gas lease sale, just 195 are eligible to be sold, officials said Monday.The lease sale is scheduled for the first quarter of 2022. It will be held more than a year after President Joe Biden’s Jan. 27 executive order suspended new oil and gas leasing on federal lands, and more than six months after a U.S. district judge ordered the Bureau of Land Management (BLM) to resume quarterly lease sales.All of the 459 potential leases were originally proposed for the canceled March and June sales. The agency published the full list on Aug. 31, and took public comment from Sept. 1–Oct. 1.After reviewing public comment and completing an environmental assessment for the state’s nominated lands, the agency deferred 264 Wyoming parcels from the sale, largely due to concerns about disturbing priority sage grouse habitat.In a separate announcement Friday, the BLM also cited “insufficient environmental analysis” as a reason for deferring some parcels.The BLM already conducts environmental assessments for proposed leases to determine impacts that drilling could have on air and water quality, wildlife habitat and surrounding communities. But federal courts have blocked several recent oil and gas lease sales, citing inadequate review of their impacts on climate change.On Friday, the agency said that it would begin evaluating greenhouse gas emissions as part of its oil and gas leasing program, starting with the upcoming sale. In addition to considering the social cost of carbon as part of its environmental analysis, it created a lease sale emissions tool and issued its first annual report on the greenhouse gas emissions of the federal mineral leasing programs.
Biden admin to require new climate analysis before oil leasing - The Biden administration today said it will consider the contribution to greenhouse gas emissions made by oil and gas produced on public lands before selling federal drilling rights. It also released a report calculating the annual emissions impact and climate trends from development of the coal, oil and natural gas on the federal mineral estate. The report estimates that federally developed fossil fuels in fiscal 2020 were responsible for more than 900 metric megatons of carbon dioxide equivalent emissions. The federal oil program has been politically divisive for the climate-focused White House. Last summer, a federal judge ordered the administration to restart national oil and gas lease auctions that President Biden had paused shortly after taking office to review their climate impacts (Energywire, Aug. 25). In response, the administration announced plans to potentially hold several oil and gas sales, the first in the Gulf of Mexico, but also offshore from Alaska and across several states that hold federal oil and natural gas deposits, like Wyoming, Colorado and New Mexico. Before it advances onshore sales, the administration will issue state-level draft environmental assessments that include an analysis of the national emissions impacts from producing, and combusting, oil and gas, Interior announced today. The administration’s full climate assessment, the most rigorous consideration of climate ahead of federal lease sales to date, will be in addition to the wildlife, environmental and social impacts already considered. “The BLM is committed to responsible development on public lands, including ensuring that our environmental reviews consider the climate impacts of energy development on lands and communities,” said Tracy Stone-Manning, the recently confirmed director of the Bureau of Land Management, the primary agency overseeing onshore oil and gas management. The report released today links roughly 800 metric megatons of carbon dioxide equivalent emissions to fossil fuel resources developed from federal lands over the next 12 months. That estimate includes not just the direct emissions from the oil patch, such as gas leakage from infrastructure, but the downstream combustion of those fuels in power plants, home heating and transportation.
After California oil spill, environmentalists plan to sue U.S — A month after a Southern California offshore oil spill, environmental advocates said Tuesday that they plan to sue the federal government over the failure to review and update plans for platforms off the coast. The Center for Biological Diversity said it sent notice to the Secretary of the Interior of its intent to sue, a requirement for lawsuits against the federal government. The group contends the government approved plans for a cluster of oil platforms in the 1980s and that they are still running though they were expected to wind down production in 2007. The notice came a month after a pipeline owned by Houston-based Amplify Energy leaked at least about 25,000 gallons of crude oil into the ocean off the coast of Orange County. Blobs of oil washed ashore, oiling birds and shuttering the famed shoreline of Huntington Beach for a week. Environmentalists braced for the worst but the damage has been less than initially feared. Much of the oil broke up at sea and local officials put up booms to keep the crude out of sensitive wetlands. Under federal law, the government is required to review oil development and production plans for leases in federal waters and revise them as needed in response to changing conditions or activities, though that rarely happens, said Miyoko Sakashita, oceans director at the Center for Biological Diversity. “It is not lawful for them to just continue on with these really old development and production plans,” Sakashita said. She added: “It’s particularly notable in this instance where we’ve now had this oil spill. The infrastructure is aging and things need to be done differently.” John Romero, a spokesperson for the Interior Department’s Bureau of Ocean Energy Management, does not comment on pending litigation. The leaky pipeline near Huntington Beach ferried crude oil from the offshore platforms questioned by the Center for Biological Diversity to the coast. The cause of the spill is under investigation, but federal officials have said the pipeline was likely initially damaged by a ship’s anchor.
Environmentalists file lawsuit against US govt for oil spill in California -- An Arizona-based environment group filed a notice to U.S. Department of the Interior and the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management (BOEM), showing its intent to sue the federal government for its miscoundct in office causing the oil spill incident in southern California in October. In the 11-page notice letter, the Center for Biological Diversity (CBD) accuses the Secretary of the Interior and BOEM of violations of the Outer Continental Shelf Lands Act (OCSLA), Xinhua news agency reported. The BOEM illegally allows Platform Elly and other offshore oil production in the Beta oilfield to operate under outdated drilling plans written in the 1970s and '80s instead of reviewing and requiring revision of the plans as the age of the infrastructure and other changes had been over forty years old, the letter said. "The oil industry is drilling and spilling off California's coast under plans written when Carter and Reagan were in the White House and floppy disks were high tech," said Kristen Monsell, Legal Director of the center's oceans program. "These incredibly outdated documents highlight the federal government's reckless, contemptible refusal to protect our beaches, wildlife and communities from offshore drilling pollution. Retro is not a good look for those ominous oil platforms, which should be shut down entirely," she added in a statement. The group's notice came a month after the Houston-based Amplify Energy pipeline leaked at least 25,000 gallons of crude oil into the ocean off the coast of southern California, closing miles of beaches and fisheries, killing and injuring birds and other wildlife. The notice letter is a prerequisite to filing a lawsuit under the 60-day notice requirement of the citizen suit provision of OCSLA, the CBD said, noting that since the BOEM did not take action to remedy the violations detailed in this letter, the center hereby provided notice of its intent to seek a judicial remedy.
As Canada invokes 1977 Treaty, tribal citizens point to older treaties affected by Line 5 ⋆ Enbridge strongly refutes the concept that they have turned local Minnesota police into a private security force, or that they had any control at all over how the account was spent. "The escrow account was created by the state of Minnesota through the Public Utility Commission," Enbridge Chief Communications Officer Mike Fernandez told ABC News. "All we were asked to do was contribute money to that escrow account. We make no judgments about how that money is spent. It was a condition of us actually getting the permit in order to operate.""The judgments are all made by professionals in the state of Minnesota that have law enforcement backgrounds, and they are the ones that make judgments on the specific payments," Fernandez said.The thousand-mile-long Line 3 pipeline transports Canadian tar sands oil -- a high-emissions fossil fuel often described as the world's dirtiest oil -- through indigenous lands and waters, including the vulnerable headwaters of the Mississippi River.The project has been the target of multiple court battles and a years-long massive civil disobedience campaign led by indigenous women in Minnesota. Opposition to the controversial project has resulted in nearly 900 arrests, including dozens around the U.S. Capitol earlier this month.
Pipeline firm deposited millions into state fund to pay local police to 'patrol' and 'protect' controversial Line 3 project - Enbridge -- a private Canadian energy corporation -- has paid more than $2.9 million for Minnesota law enforcement and public safety organization expenses related to the company's controversial Line 3 oil pipeline through a state-managed escrow account, according to documents obtained by ABC News through public records requests. The majority of the Enbridge money went toward more than $2 million in law enforcement wages for services such as conducting proactive patrols along the pipeline route and "protecting the construction workers and equipment," according to the records. The account also reimbursed law enforcement hundreds of thousands of dollars for training, protective gear, transportation, hotel rooms, and meals while policing the pipeline, according to the records. "If a state is openly in a financial relationship with a private actor, through an escrow account, where they are paying the police to protect their project, that should concern all of the public," Northern Minnesota-based tribal attorney and prominent Line 3 opponent Tara Houska told ABC News. Enbridge strongly refutes the concept that they have turned local Minnesota police into a private security force, or that they had any control at all over how the account was spent. "The judgments are all made by professionals in the state of Minnesota that have law enforcement backgrounds, and they are the ones that make judgments on the specific payments," The thousand-mile-long Line 3 pipeline transports Canadian tar sands oil -- a high-emissions fossil fuel often described as the world's dirtiest oil -- through indigenous lands and waters, including the vulnerable headwaters of the Mississippi River. The project has been the target of multiple court battles and a years-long massive civil disobedience campaign led by indigenous women in Minnesota. Opposition to the controversial project has resulted in nearly 900 arrests, including dozens around the U.S. Capitol earlier this month.
Husky Energy facing federal charges related to 2018 oil spill - Husky Energy is facing even more charges stemming from the November 2018 SeaRose FPSO oil spill — this time at the federal level. In a statement issued Thursday afternoon, Environment and Climate Change Canada said it laid three charges including two under the Fisheries Act and one under the Migratory Birds Convention Act. The charges are in addition to three charges laid by the Canada–Newfoundland and Labrador Offshore Petroleum Board (C-NLOPB) in October, based on its own, parallel investigation into the same incident. Environment and Climate Change Canada enforces the pollution prevention provisions of the Fisheries Act and is responsible for enforcement of the Migratory Birds Convention Act, 1994, which is federal legislation for the protection and conservation of migratory birds and their nests. According to the department, the mandatory minimum fine, if a corporation other than a small revenue corporation is convicted of the stated charges, is $100,000 each when prosecuted by summary conviction procedure. The 250,000-litre spill is the largest in the history of Newfoundland and Labrador's offshore industry. The leak came from a flowline to the SeaRose FPSO, a floating production, storage and offloading vessel located about 350 kilometres off the coast of St. John's on the White Rose Oil Field at the time.
Oil patch execs fear Trudeau's 'reckless' energy emissions cap - The federal government must work co-operatively with industry as it looks to draft an emissions cap for the oil and gas sector, Alberta business leaders said Monday, or risk far-reaching consequences for the Canadian economy. In an interview Monday, Grant Fagerheim, chief executive of Calgary-based oil company Whitecap Resources Inc., warned of the dangers posed by a federal government that he believes is setting ambitious climate targets that it doesn't know how to achieve. “Setting out virtue-signaling commitments with no real firm targets is dangerous, and it's reckless because at the end of the day, this is about the things that we can't live without - food, heat, clothing and transportation.'' At COP26, the UN climate conference in Scotland on Monday, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau formally committed to a cap on greenhouse gas emissions produced by Canada's oil and gas industry. Such a cap had been promised in the Liberals' recent election platform, with plans to force emissions down until they hit net zero in 2050. A lack of regulations for the sector has long been a sore spot between environmental groups and Ottawa. Newly named Environment Minister Steven Guilbeault along with Natural Resources Minister Jonathan Wilkinson sent a letter to the government's net-zero advisory body Monday asking for its help to develop policy to support the new plan. But Fagerheim said the oil and gas industry is fearful that politicians have “massively overestimated'' the pace and scale at which the global economy can move away from fossil fuels. He said the government must sit down to talk with industry leaders about what is realistic. While the industry has made huge strides in recent years on reducing emissions intensity (actual emissions from Canada's oil and gas sector have actually increased over time due to increased production), Fagerheim said hobbling the industry with unachievable targets will result in higher prices for Canadian consumers. He added it will also mean fewer profits for energy companies to funnel into emission-reduction technologies and renewables projects.
AltaGas Sees Responsibly Sourced LNG as Potential Montney Growth Engine - Canada’s AltaGas Ltd. in its third quarter results said the potential engines of growth for the company include plants in the Montney Shale of British Columbia (BC). The company touted its plants in the Montney region of northern BC, which is the supply source for liquefied natural gas export facilities under construction or on the drawing board..“As evidenced by the current global energy shortage and cascading negative effects that are taking place across the world, we continue to believe in the role, benefits and reliability that responsibly sourced natural gas will provide, ” said President Randy Crawford.During 3Q2021, the company reported a record 105,000 b/d of propane and butane exports from its Prince Rupert, BC, and Ferndale, WA, operations. Overseas sales of natural gas liquids from the Pacific coast terminals fueled sharply improved financial results.The U.S. Energy Information Administration reported recently that propane prices in East Asia have more than doubled year/year. Canada’s 2020 propane exports surged, and the Canada Energy Regulator has predicted more growth this year. Calgary-based AltaGas said that it shipped roughly equal NGL volumes overseas from its Canadian and U.S. terminals during the reporting period, filling a total of 18 very large gas carriers.
The Problem With Calling Fracked Gas 'Responsibly Sourced' – The fracked natural gas industry has never been the most responsible or efficient consumer of resources. Drillers are using ever-increasing amounts of water and sand in order to produce the same volume of gas, with a corresponding rise in the levels of solid and liquid waste created. Nevertheless, the industry has begun a new wave of branding around “Responsibly Sourced Natural Gas,” or RSG. But what does RSG really mean? We argue that right now it’s an inadequate and ill-defined measurement of the overall ecological and social burden imposed by fracking. Instead, we suggest a new ratio for more accurately calculating fracked gas’s full impacts so that the fossil fuel industry can’t use RSG standards as a thin green veil for continuing its polluting practices. What Is RSG? RSG is a new term used in the natural gas industry to describe voluntary reporting initiatives, centered largely around emissions of the powerful climate pollutant methane, but which may also include other criteria such as air quality, water stewardship, land impacts, and “community interests.” Think of RSG as attempting to create an oil and gas equivalent of fair-trade labels for clothing or green building standards for architecture. RSG programs are intended in large part to boost investor confidence by way of “strategic storytelling,” as one industry consulting firm put it. Proponents of such voluntary standards are trying to simultaneously compete in the domestic and global energy market, increase profit margins, and attract environmental, social, and governance (ESG) investors, a hot trend in the investing world right now. But the definition of “responsibly sourced” is inconsistent across the 20 such initiatives that are currently available. Only two of these require the use of third-party auditors to verify the operators’ reporting via independent on-site measurements. That’s unlike many other sectors, such as in organic agriculture. Quantifying methane emissions is central to most of the RSG programs, but none of them require full public disclosure of the methane levels that are actually released. That practice mirrors the secretive nature of the fracked oil and gas industry, which also does not publicly disclose the full list of chemicals used during the fracking process. The various “responsibly sourced” certification programs need more transparency, standardization, and punitive measures for companies that play fast and loose with the concepts and requirements underlying all manner of RSG schemes. The latter would involve significant monetary penalties or expulsion from RSG programs when a gas well fails to comply with the environmental standards. Those changes would go a long way toward defining what exactly constitutes RSG, how it is calculated, and whether it is a meaningful measure of environmental impacts. There are benefits to the natural gas industry reducing methane emissions — most notably for the rapidly destabilizing climate — but it represents low-hanging fruit for the industry to clean up its practices. Given the scale of the climate crisis, we need a much more serious commitment on the part of policymakers and energy companies to phase out fracked oil and gas production entirely and in the interim to significantly lessen its resource demands and waste production.
House Democrats subpoena oil companies over climate disinformation - The Washington Post - The House Committee on Oversight and Reform issued subpoenas Tuesday for documents from some of the world’s biggest oil and gas companies to build its case that Big Oil has for decades misled the public about climate change. The committee is seeking records from ExxonMobil, Chevron, BP and Dutch Royal Shell concerning what Democratic lawmakers describe as a concerted effort by the petroleum industry to sow doubt about the scientific reality of global warming, according to a memo released by the panel.Two lobbying groups funded by fossil fuel firms, the American Petroleum Institute and U.S. Chamber of Commerce, were also given subpoenas.The requests were sent as many top U.S. officials, including President Biden and many of his Cabinet members, attended a major climate summit in Scotland in an attempt to push other nations to drastically cut their greenhouse gas emissions.Rep. Carolyn B. Maloney (D-N.Y.), chair of the committee, said the six entities failed to produce a “substantial portion” of the documents requested from them ahead of a historic hearing Thursday, at which top executives appeared before the House panel for questioning about climate change. “So I see no choice but continue our committee’s investigation until we see the truth,” Maloney said at the end of the hearing, noting one of the groups simply printed out and sent in 1,500 pages from its own website. She concluded the hearing by announcing that subpoenas would be sent shortly.
Even as Biden Pushes Clean Energy, He Seeks More Oil Production - — President Biden told a global climate summit on Monday that “we only have a brief window before us” to reduce the emissions from burning oil, gas and coal that pose an “existential threat” to humanity. But only days earlier, he was urging the world’s largest oil producers to pump more of the fossil fuels that are warming the planet. The incongruity was on center stage both at the global climate summit currently taking place in Scotland, and in Rome this past weekend during a gathering of leaders from the 20 largest economies. The president’s comments highlighted the political and economic realities facing politicians as they grapple with climate change. And they underscored the complexity of moving away from the fossil fuels that have underpinned global economic activity since the Industrial Age. “On the surface, it seems like an irony,” Mr. Biden said at a news conference Sunday. “But the truth of the matter is — you’ve all known; everyone knows — that the idea we’re going to be able to move to renewable energy overnight,” he said, was “just not rational.” Mr. Biden’s words have drawn fire from energy experts and climate activists, who say the world cannot afford to ramp up oil and natural gas production if it wants to avert catastrophic levels of warming. Environmental groups are intensely watching to see how the president intends to meet his ambitious goal of halving the nation’s emissions, compared to 2005 levels, by the end of this decade. A recent International Energy Agency report found that countries must immediately stop new oil, gas and coal development if they hope to keep the average global temperature from increasing 1.5 Celsius above preindustrial levels, the threshold beyond which scientists say the Earth faces irreversible damage. The planet has already warmed 1.1 degrees Celsius. “We are in a climate crisis. There is no room for the left hand and the right hand to be doing different things,” said Jennifer Morgan, executive director at Greenpeace International. “It’s not credible to say you’re fighting for 1.5 degrees while you’re calling for increased oil production.” With gasoline prices rising above $3.30 a gallon nationwide, Mr. Biden over the weekend urged major energy producing countries with spare capacity to boost production, part of a larger effort to pressure OPEC countries and Russia to increase the supply of oil. He was joined by Emmanuel Macron of France, whose country hosted the 2015 meeting in Paris where 200 countries agreed to collectively tackle global warming.M
Biden: OPEC And Russia Must Pump More Oil To Help America's Working Class --The refusal of OPEC+ to increase crude oil production is affecting America's working class, President Biden said at a news conference following the G20 meeting in Rome. "I do think that the idea that Russia and Saudi Arabia and other major producers are not going to pump more oil so people can have gasoline to get to and from work, for example, is not, is not, right," Biden said as quoted by Russian TASS. "It [OPEC+'s decision to keep a lid on output increases] has profound impact on working class families just to get back and forth to work," the U.S. President added, as quoted by NPR. The comments made by the U.S. President were later the same day echoed more bluntly by Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm, who directly blamed the OPEC cartel for keeping prices high. "Gas prices, of course, are based on a global oil market. That oil market is controlled by a cartel. That cartel is Opec," Granholm told NBC's Meet the Press. "So that cartel has more say about what is going on." At the same time, Granholm noted that the oil industry could not "flip a switch" for production as it recovers from the effects of the pandemic and this, too, contributed to higher prices resulting from the tight supply. Even if factors influencing gas prices at the pump in the United States may be outside the country, the effects of price movements are already costing Biden approval among voters. According to NPR, his rating is well below 50 percent, with 70 percent of Americans believing the country is not going in the right direction. Also at the news conference, the U.S. President said he was confident the country could meet his administration's goal of emission cuts, which is 50 percent from 2005 by 2030. Yet, the president acknowledged that the renewable shift cannot happen overnight. "On the surface, it seems like an irony," Biden said, referring to his call on OPEC+ to add more oil production while heading for COP26 to discuss the reduction of global emissions. "But the truth of the matter is ... everyone knows that idea that we're going to be able to move to renewable energy overnight ... it's just not rational."
Even as Biden Pushes Clean Energy, He Seeks More Oil Production - The New York Times — President Biden told a global climate summit on Monday that “we only have a brief window before us” to reduce the emissions from burning oil, gas and coal that pose an “existential threat” to humanity. But only days earlier, he was urging the world’s largest oil producers to pump more of the fossil fuels that are warming the planet.The incongruity was on center stage both at the global climate summit currently taking place in Scotland, and in Rome this past weekend during a gathering of leaders from the 20 largest economies. The president’s comments highlighted the political and economic realities facing politicians as they grapple with climate change. And they underscored the complexity of moving away from the fossil fuels that have underpinned global economic activity since the Industrial Age.“On the surface, it seems like an irony,” Mr. Biden said at a news conference Sunday. “But the truth of the matter is — you’ve all known; everyone knows — that the idea we’re going to be able to move to renewable energy overnight,” he said, was “just not rational.”Mr. Biden’s words have drawn fire from energy experts and climate activists, who say the world cannot afford to ramp up oil and natural gas production if it wants to avert catastrophic levels of warming. Environmental groups are intensely watching to see how the president intends to meet his ambitious goal of halving the nation’s emissions, compared to 2005 levels, by the end of this decade.A recent International Energy Agency report found that countries must immediately stop new oil, gas and coal development if they hope to keep the average global temperature from increasing 1.5 Celsius above preindustrial levels, the threshold beyond which scientists say the Earth faces irreversible damage. The planet has already warmed 1.1 degrees Celsius.“We are in a climate crisis. There is no room for the left hand and the right hand to be doing different things,” said Jennifer Morgan, executive director at Greenpeace International. “It’s not credible to say you’re fighting for 1.5 degrees while you’re calling for increased oil production.” With gasoline prices rising above $3.30 a gallon nationwide, Mr. Biden over the weekend urged major energy producing countries with spare capacity to boost production, part of a larger effort to pressure OPEC countries and Russia to increase the supply of oil. He was joined by Emmanuel Macron of France, whose country hosted the 2015 meeting in Paris where 200 countries agreed to collectively tackle global warming. At the conclusion Sunday of a Group of 20 summit that ended with lofty rhetoric on climate but fewer concrete actions than activists had hoped, Mr. Biden addressed the irony head on. The transition to lower-emission sources of energy would take years, and in the meantime, it was important to ensure that people can afford to drive their cars and heat their homes, he said at a news conference.
Sorry, President Biden, This Is Not OPEC’s Fault Just ahead of OPEC’s next virtual meeting, President Joe Biden cast blame at Russia and OPEC for the current state of high oil prices. He said "If you take a look at gas prices and you take a look at oil prices that's a consequence of thus far the refusal of Russia or the OPEC nations to pump more oil." Javier Blas, Chief Energy Correspondent at Bloomberg News, posted video of Biden’s statement on Twitter. Let’s be clear on a couple of things. First, a fundamental reason oil prices have surged over the last year is that U.S. oil production declined by 3 million barrels per day (BPD) during the pandemic. That decline was exacerbated by a price war between Russia and Saudi Arabia just ahead of the pandemic, but then the pandemic crushed demand (and oil prices). In response to the collapse in prices, last summer U.S. oil production fell by 3 million BPD — the largest short-term decline ever recorded. Demand started to come back in summer, and by fall demand was recovering faster than supply in the U.S. Our crude oil imports began to climb, and along with that so did the price of crude oil and oil products. One could make the alternative argument that rising gas prices are from the refusal of U.S. producers to increase production. However, it’s more complex than that. During the pandemic, some producers went out of business. Some low-production stripper wells were certainly shut down. That’s production that won’t come back easily. (And some of those factors also impact production from Russia and OPEC). But here’s the thing. Whether you think it was the right thing to do, the reality is that passing legislation that is hostile to the U.S. oil and gas industry makes it even more difficult for domestic production to bounce back. So, instead of asking Russia and OPEC to pump more oil, we could look internally to what we could do in the U.S. to pump more oil. I highlighted the risks of President Biden’s energy policies earlier in the year, because this is the sort of situation that can arise (not that this is the primary cause of this crisis, but it could be the cause of a future crisis). OPEC and Russia have some spare capacity, but they may be reluctant to use it to help Americans out with lower fuel prices. The International Energy Agency (IEA) recently estimated that OPEC+ spare capacity (primarily OPEC plus Russia) was 9 million BPD in the first quarter of 2021, but it sees that potentially falling below 4 million barrels BPD by the fourth quarter of 2022 It is certainly in Russia’s and OPEC’s self-interest to keep prices high. They are under no obligation to boost output to give us relief in the U.S. We can pressure them and dangle incentives, but this situation didn’t arise from their refusal to pump more oil. Nevertheless, they could probably do so if they wanted and give us some relief. Think of it like a doctor responding to a distress call on an airplane. They didn’t cause the problem, but they may be in a position to assist.
OPEC+ members shun Biden's calls to boost oil output -OPEC+ headed for a clash with the U.S. as more members rejected President Joe Biden’s call for the group to raise oil production faster and help reduce gasoline prices. On Monday, Kuwait said the cartel should stick with its plan to increase output gradually because oil markets were well-balanced. That followed similar statements from other key members in recent days, including Iraq, Algeria, Angola and Nigeria. The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies – led by Saudi Arabia and Russia – meet on Thursday with pressure from oil consumers mounting as prices climb toward $85 a barrel. American gasoline is at a seven-year high of $3.70 a gallon. The U.S., India, Japan and other importers are waging a campaign to force the group to ease last year’s pandemic-triggered supply curbs more quickly. “The idea that Russia and Saudi Arabia and other major producers are not going to pump more oil so people can have gasoline to get to and from work, for example, is not right,” Biden said Sunday. While Biden declined to say how he would react if OPEC+ doesn’t change tack, analysts have speculated the U.S. might sell some of its strategic petroleum reserves. OPEC+’s plan of boosting daily production by 400,000 barrels each month “is working well and there is no need to deviate from it,” Angola’s oil minister, Diamantino Pedro Azevedo, said Sunday. Many members, including Saudi Arabia, have argued they shouldn’t pump crude any faster because the pandemic is still sapping demand. Some are already struggling to reach their higher output quotas after last year’s deep cuts, and say bringing production back more rapidly would make their task even more difficult. “We are not yet out of the woods,” Saudi Energy Minister Abdulaziz bin Salman told Bloomberg Television on Oct. 23. “We don’t take things for granted, we still have Covid.” OPEC+ has said that increasing crude exports would do little to bring down power prices, which have soared in parts of Europe and Asia due to shortages of natural gas and coal. Still, OPEC+ has often surprised the market with sudden changes of policy. And while Riyadh and Moscow have both praised the group’s strategy, neither has directly addressed Biden’s comments in public, giving themselves room for maneuver.
U.S. energy secretary has a message for OPEC: Boost oil supply so people don't get hurt this winter— U.S. Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm has called on oil-producing nations to immediately increase crude supplies to mitigate the surging cost of living. On Thursday, oil cartel OPEC and its allies agreed to continue with their current output plan, deciding against loosening the taps despite U.S. pressure to help cool the market. Oil prices have recently hit their highest levels since 2014, and crude-importing countries are feeling the pain. It's boosted gasoline prices and has added to surging inflation rates around the globe, with consumers already paying more due to supply bottlenecks in the economy. Asked by CNBC about the U.S.'s relationship with Saudi Arabia, the de-facto leader of OPEC, after the output decision, Granholm said: "In some places, we have strong relationships and in some places we wish our allies would move a little faster." "The message is we need to increase supply at this moment so that people will not be hurt during the winter months," she told CNBC's Steve Sedgwick on Friday at the COP26 climate summit in Glasgow, Scotland. President Joe Biden has squarely blamed the reluctance of OPEC and its allies, known as OPEC+, to pump more oil for the sharp rise in energy prices in the U.S. and around the world. "The idea that Russia and Saudi Arabia and other major producers are not going to pump more oil so people can have gasoline to get to and from work, for example, is not right," Biden said Sunday at the G-20 meeting in Rome. OPEC+ decided to rollover its August plan to gradually increase oil production by 400,000 barrels per day each month. Ministers attending the meeting on Thursday said the group was maintaining market balance and remaining wary of potential changes in demand. Several of the ministers also pointed to the skyrocketing prices of other commodities such as gas and coal to argue that oil markets are lucky to have OPEC+ regulating supply. International oil benchmark Brent crude was trading at $80.80 per barrel at 7:30 a.m. ET on Friday, up 27 cents from the previous day. It was also put to Granholm that domestic oil production in the U.S. had abated over the last couple of years, even prior to the Covid pandemic, due to a lack of investment incentives. "I don't know why at $80 a barrel those incentives are not there," she said. "During Covid, it was down — they backed off because demand was not there because people were staying home, we know that. Now that things are back up, the production should be meeting that [demand], there has been rigs that have been added but not fully," she added.
U.S., U.K. lead pledge to end overseas oil and gas financing, but with big caveats - — The United States, the U.K. and some 20 other countries and financial institutions pledged on Thursday to stop public financing for most overseas oil and gas projects by next year, though the agreement included wide latitude for participants to set their own exemptions and many of the world's leading backers of those projects declined to sign on. The announcement from the COP26 climate summit is part of the effort to keep countries on track to reduce global emissions sharply enough to meet the Paris agreement's stretch goal of limiting planetary warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius from the beginning of the industrial era. It was hailed by many environmentalists as a critical step toward weaning the international economy off fossil fuels. The pledge is limited to ending financing of "unabated" oil and gas projects, and would allow those that include carbon capture and sequestration technology. And it is largely in line with President Joe Biden's January executive order, which called for changes in how the world's No. 2 greenhouse gas polluter handles public financing for oil and gas projects. A senior Biden administration official told POLITICO the measure includes exemptions, and that the Biden administration had not settled on how it would instruct its finance aid organizations like the U.S. Export-Import Bank, the International Development Finance Corp. and Millennium Challenge Corp. to implement it. How tight any carve-outs are for oil and gas is potentially significant for Ex-Im, which approved $5 billion in fossil fuel finance the last two years, environmental group Friends of the Earth said in a statement.
BP posts $3.3 billion third-quarter profit, beating estimates as oil prices surge -Oil and gas giant BP beat third-quarter earnings expectations on Tuesday, fueled by surging energy prices. The British energy major posted an underlying replacement cost profit, a proxy for net profit, of $3.3 billion for the third quarter, above analyst estimates of $3.1 billion, according to Refinitiv. The figure compares to $2.8 billion of net profit in the previous quarter and $100 million for the same period in 2020, when oil prices collapsed as a result of the coronavirus pandemic. This year, international benchmark Brent crude prices have up around 60% to date. "Rising commodity prices certainly helped, but I am most pleased that quarter by quarter, we're doing what we said we would - delivering significant cash to strengthen our finances, grow distributions to shareholders and invest in our strategic transformation," CEO Bernard Looney said in the company's earnings report. However, the company reported a headline loss of $2.5 billion for the third quarter as a result of "significant adverse fair value accounting effects." These saw the company take a $6.1 billion hit which it attributed to the "exceptional" rise in forward gas prices towards the end of the quarter. Looney told CNBC on Tuesday that the discrepancy between the headline and underlying figures was a "simple timing effect" under IFRS reporting rules, which mean BP is "accounting for hedge and not accounting for the value of the portfolio." He confirmed that this did not mean the hedges had gone wrong, just that the company was "accounting on one side of the equation and not on the other side, as required by IFRS, and this will unwind over time." Net debt fell to just under $32 billion from $32.7 billion in the second quarter, making a sixth consecutive quarter of reductions. BP maintained its dividend at 5.46 cents per share payable in the fourth quarter, following an increase of 4% through 2025 announced in the second quarter. It said it was planning a further $1.25 billion share buyback prior to the company's fourth-quarter earnings report..
Gazprom Says EU Demand Met in Full After Mallnow Flows Reversed - Gazprom PJSC said it’s meeting European demand in full after German data showed natural-gas flows through a key transit route reversed direction. Shipments from the Yamal-Europe pipeline toward Germany’s Mallnow station went to zero early Saturday, according to data from the grid operator Gascade. Instead, it reported so-called reverse flows, with gas going eastward through the station from Germany toward Poland. “Fluctuations in demand for Russian gas depend on the actual needs of buyers,” Gazprom press service said in a statement when asked about the flows. Gascade didn’t respond to a Bloomberg request for comment outside normal business hours Russian gas shipments through Mallnow have been far below capacity for more than two months, with some European Union officials accusing the country of withholding supply to pressure the region into accelerating approvals for its controversial new pipeline, Nord Stream 2. Gazprom has repeatedly said that it meets all contractual obligations and is ready to increase deliveries whenever possible. Poland not only receives its gas from Russia directly, but also via a so-called virtual reverse, which can become a physical one -- reported by Gascade -- depending on requested volumes. It’s not unheard of for weekend flows to drop, given lower demand from industrial users. With the end of the month approaching, some monthly requests may have already been met.
EU Gas Surges on Disturbance to Russian Shipments - Europe faces a tightening squeeze on natural gas supplies after Russian flows through transit routes fell and Algeria stopped some shipments to Spain. The market was roiled in early trading, with benchmark gas futures surging as much as 15% before paring gains, as Russian gas started flowing eastward from Germany to Poland, while pipeline damage in Bulgaria also impacted shipments from Gazprom PJSC to some parts of Europe. Spain was also receiving less gas after a 25-year transit deal to ship Algerian volumes via Morocco expired. European gas futures have broken record after record this year, as Russia capped flows to the region just as cargoes of liquefied natural gas were diverted to Asia. Soaring energy costs helped send euro-zone inflation to a 13-year high in October, fueling concerns about an economic slowdown. President Vladimir Putin has promised more gas supplies to Europe, but that has yet to materialize. “Gas prices are currently all about signals and especially those being sent from Russia,” said Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank A/S. The market is “in flux and still very worried.” Dutch front-month gas closed up 1.2% at 65.62 euros a megawatt-hour after surging as high as 74.35 euros earlier with some traders off for holidays. The equivalent U.K. contract added 0.9% to 167.47 pence a therm after jumping as much as 14%. Russian gas shipments entering Germany’s Mallnow compressor station dropped to zero on Saturday, according to data from grid operator Gascade. The Yamal-Europe pipeline was instead sending volumes eastward from Germany to Poland, and those flows increased further on Monday. Flows through Yamal-Europe, one of several routes used to deliver Russian fuel to the region, were already expected to be capped this month after Gazprom booked only 35% of the monthly capacity offered at Mallnow. The reverse shipments, however, left traders scratching their heads after Putin signaled a potential increase in supplies from Nov. 8, when Russian storage sites will be full.
A Russian Pipeline Changes Direction, and Energy Politics Come to the Fore - — Natural gas, already in short supply in Europe this fall, began moving away from Germany on Saturday and back toward the east in an unusual reversal in a major Russian pipeline, Russian media reported.In themselves, the Russian reports were no cause for alarm, and the giant Russian energy firm, Gazprom, said Saturday that it is filling all European orders. One Russian news media report even suggested the flow reversal was a short-term problem caused by balmy weather in Germany over the weekend.But the reversal is playing out against a backdrop of a politically charged explosion in gas prices in Europe and accusations that the Kremlin is restricting gas supplies for political purposes. One such purpose is to prod the E.U. into approving a new pipeline, Nordstream 2, that would bring gas from Russia directly to Germany, bypassing Eastern Europe.More broadly, analysts say, the Kremlin may be sending a message about renewable energy, illustrating that too quick a pivot away from natural gas will leave the Continent vulnerable to fickle wind and solar supplies.Analysts say Russia has for weeks now been slow to supply fuel to make up for shortfalls, often by limiting deliveries to its own storage facilities. The reversal of the direction of flow on the major Yamal-Europe pipeline was seen as a potential new wrinkle. The pipeline connects Russia to Germany and crosses Belarus and Poland. It accounts for about 20 percent of Russia’s overland supply capacity to the European Union, suggesting a significant shortfall if its operations were halted.
Algeria stops gas exports to Spain via Morocco - (Xinhua) -- Algerian President Abdelmadjid Tebboune decided on Sunday to stop natural gas exports to Spain through Morocco, the official APS news agency reported. The presidency announced in a statement that Tebboune ordered the state-owned energy company Sonatrach to stop commercial relationship with Morocco and not to renew the gas pipeline contract with Morocco, which ends at midnight of Oct. 31, 2021. The statement stressed that the president made the decision due to Morocco's "hostile" practices towards Algeria that affect national unity. Algeria has used the Gaz-Maghreb-Europe (GME) pipeline through Morocco to transfer natural gas to Spain. Algerian Minister of Energy and Mines Mohamed Arkab affirmed on Oct. 11 that his country will remain "the faithful and guaranteed" gas supplier to Europe. He said the Medgaz gas pipeline, linking Algeria and Spain by sea, guarantees an annual supply of 8 billion cubic meters of gas, noting that the pipeline capacity is due to increase to 10.6 billion cubic meters by December. Algeria, producing 1.2 million oil barrels per day and 130 billion cubic meters of natural gas annually, is Africa's biggest natural gas exporter. It has been using pipelines and tankers to provide natural gas to European countries. Algeria cut diplomatic relations with Morocco in August, citing what it described as the latter's "hostile" policies. Morocco later expressed regret over Algeria's "completely unjustified" decision to sever diplomatic ties between the two countries.
Draunibota Bay oil spill under investigation -- An investigation is in progress to determine the cause of an oil spill in Suva’s Draunibota Bay. Environment Ministry permanent secretary Joshua Wycliffe said the spill which occurred earlier this month was of concern. “It could be anything from the derelict vessel to a boat that went past, so there is an investigation being conducted,” Mr Wycliffe said. “In our opinion, it could be from a derelict vessel so the department has engaged in extensive discussions with MSAF (Maritime Safety Authority of Fiji) and Fiji Ports. “We have worked out ourselves as to who is responsible for doing what. We have come up with a plan of action and this is as far as the mitigation is concerned.” Mr Wycliffe said they also hoped to engage with communities in taking ownership, and on how similar crises could be avoided and better handled in the future. Traditional owners of Drunibota Bay and the Suva Harbour, yavusa Navakavu expressed grave concerns at the recent spillage. They said it affected the marine environment and their fishing grounds. Mr Wycliffe said any oil spill whether minor or major was a great concern for the Environment Ministry and when there was a breach in environmental conditions, their inspectors would go and inspect. He said they would work with agencies and communities to be able to rectify results.
Leaking Gas pipeline in Ikeja Isolated –NNPC - The Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation (NNPC) Ltd has said the gas pipeline reported to have been leaking in the early hours of yesterday Ikeja, Lagos State, has been isolated and the general area cordoned off. While allaying public fear especially amongst residents around the An ifowoshe area, the NNPC in a statement made available to journalists yesterday by its Group General Manager, Group Public Affairs Division, Garba Muhammad, said the incident was caused by road construction and rehabilitation activities going on in the area.’ The statement partly reads: “Preliminary findings indicate that at about 8.40am, Wednesday, 3rd November 2021, a pipeline gas leakage was reported around Anifowoshe, Ikeja Underbridge, Lagos State. “The pipeline is a 6-inch gas pipeline supplying gas to Mainland Power Ltd, near Lagos State University Teaching Hospital, Ikeja. “The NNPC immediately moved in by engaging Gaslink Ltd, its franchise partner operating the pipeline, mobilized to the location, cordoned off the area and successfully isolated the gas pipeline at Oba Akran Valve pit.
Fuel tanker blast in Sierra Leone capital kills at least 91, says morgue - (Reuters) - Ninety-one people were killed in the capital of Sierra Leone on Friday when a fuel tanker exploded following a collision, the central morgue and local authorities said. The government has not yet confirmed the death toll, but the manager of the central state morgue in Freetown said it had received 91 bodies following the explosion. Victims included people who had flocked to collect fuel leaking from the ruptured vehicle, Yvonne Aki-Sawyerr, mayor of the port city, said in a post on Facebook. "We've got so many casualties, burnt corpses," said Brima Bureh Sesay, head of the National Disaster Management Agency, in a video from the scene shared online. "It's a terrible, terrible accident." Images shared widely online showed several badly burned victims lying on the streets as fire blazed through shops and houses nearby. Reuters was not able immediately to verify the images. Aki-Sawyerr called the videos and photos "harrowing". The mayor said that the extent of the damage was not yet clear, adding that police and her deputy were at the scene to assist disaster management officials. "My profound sympathies with families who have lost loved ones and those who have been maimed as a result," President Julius Maada Bio tweeted. "My Government will do everything to support affected families." (Reporting by Umaru Fofana in Freetown and Bhargav Acharya in Bengaluru; Writig by Bhargav Acharya and Alessandra Prentice Editing by Clarence Fernandez and Frances Kerry)
OPEC+ members likely to hold firm on slow oil output, despite international pressure - Oil prices have hit their highest levels since 2014, and crude importing countries are feeling the pain. But despite diplomatic pressure, OPEC and its allies are unlikely to decide to open up the taps during the oil cartel's meeting on Thursday. That likely means continued high energy prices through the end of this year and potentially into 2022, analysts say. "For now, we still expect to see OPEC+ members remain in favor of keeping oil markets tight, taking advantage of the elevated prices to improve fiscal accounts," Edward Bell, senior director of market economics at Dubai-based bank Emirates NBD, wrote in a note Wednesday. President Joe Biden squarely blamed the reluctance of OPEC+ to pump more oil for the sharp rise in energy prices in the U.S. and around the world. "The idea that Russia and Saudi Arabia and other major producers are not going to pump more oil so people can have gasoline to get to and from work, for example, is not right," Biden said Sunday at the G-20 meeting in Rome, Italy. Japan and India have also joined the U.S. in trying to pressure OPEC to increase its output limits and help reduce energy prices. So far, however, the group's policy from August to gradually increase oil production by 400,000 barrels per day each month is perfectly fine by the OPEC members and its allies, which include Russia. The program "is working well and there is no need to deviate from it," Angola's oil minister Diamantino Pedro Azevedo said Sunday. Kuwait also said Monday that the organization should hold to its current plan because oil markets were "well-balanced," and fellow OPEC members Iraq, Nigeria and Algeria all issued similar statements.
Oil drops on China fuel reserves release - Oil prices dropped on Monday as China's release of gasoline and diesel reserves eased concerns over tight global supply, while investors cashed in ahead of a November 4 meeting of major crude producers that could increase future production targets. Brent crude futures dropped 46 cents, or 0.6 per cent, to $83.26 a barrel by 0746 GMT, after gaining 6 cents on Friday. US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures slid 64 cents, or 0.8 per cent, to $82.93, having risen 76 cents on Friday. The drops came after China said in a rare official statement that it had released reserves of the two fuels to increase market supply and support price stability in some regions. "Behind the selling was China's release of fuels reserves, which reflected Beijing's intention to stabilise oil prices, just like coal prices," said Chiyoki Chen, chief analyst at Sunward Trading. "Also, investors took profits ahead of an OPEC+ meeting," Chen said. All eyes are on the November 4 meeting of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), Russia and their allies, together called OPEC+, with analysts expecting them to stick to a plan to add 400,000 barrels per day of supply in December. Money managers cut their net long US crude futures and options positions in the week to October 26, the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) said on Friday. Oil prices rallied to multi-year highs last week, helped by the decision by OPEC+ to maintain its planned output increase rather than raising it on global supply concerns. US President Joe Biden on Saturday urged major G20 energy producing countries with spare capacity to boost production to ensure a stronger global economic recovery as part of a broad effort to pressure OPEC+ to increase oil supply. But Iraq's state oil marketing company, SOMO, said on Saturday Iraq sees no need to take any decision to increase its production capabilities beyond what has already been planned for OPEC countries. Kuwait supports the plan to increase global oil supply which has been already agreed by OPEC+, the Gulf nation's oil minister Mohammad Abdulatif al-Fares said on Monday, according to state news agency KUNA. "Investors will likely resume buying after confirming the OPEC+ decision on Thursday," said Hiroyuki Kikukawa, general manager of research at Nissan Securities. A Reuters poll showed that oil prices are expected to hold near $80 as the year ends, as tight supplies and higher gas bills encourage a switch to crude for use as a power generation fuel. ‘
Oil Futures Post Modest Gain | Rigzone - Oil pared gains amid rising stockpiles at the biggest U.S. storage hub, signaling a crude supply drain may be slowing. Futures in New York closed 0.6% higher on Monday. Inventories at Cushing, Oklahoma, the delivery point for benchmark U.S. crude futures, rose by about 852,000 barrels in the period Oct. 26-Oct. 29, according to traders citing data from Wood Mackenzie. Any reversal in the trend of supply declines at Cushing, “should at least quell the panic on inventories,” said Rebecca Babin, senior energy trader at CIBC Private Wealth Management. Crude has soared this year as economies recover from the pandemic and amid an energy squeeze marked by shortages of gas and coal. Bank of America even said it expects Brent crude to hit to hit $120 a barrel by the end of June. Meanwhile, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies will meet virtually on Thursday to discuss output policy. The group have loosened supply curbs only gradually, and top exporter Saudi Arabia has maintained a cautious stance. U.S. President Joe Biden criticized Saudi Arabia and Russia for an inadequate response to the energy crunch while speaking after a Group of 20 summit on Sunday. However, OPEC+ has remained steadfast in resisting the pressure, with Kuwait becoming the latest country to say the group should stick with its plan to increase output only gradually. Analysts believe the cartel will stay the course, in fear of making the same mistakes of overproduction they have in the past. The winter is coming and the group doesn’t know if lockdowns in the future will derail demand, Amrita Sen, chief oil analyst at Energy Aspects Ltd., said in a Bloomberg Television interview. “They don’t want to preempt anything.” Prices: West Texas Intermediate for December delivery rose 48 cents to settle at $84.05 a barrel in New York Brent for January settlement gained 99 cents to settle at $84.71 a barrel Inventories at Cushing have been draining as oil prices for immediate delivery are well above those for delivery in the future, making storing oil unprofitable. Stockpiles are currently sitting at the lowest since late 2018. .
Oil, Equity Futures Lower Early as FOMC Meeting Begins - Nearby delivery-month oil futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange and Brent crude traded on the Intercontinental Exchange followed equities lower in early morning trade Tuesday, sending the front-month West Texas Intermediate crude contract below $84 per barrel (bbl) amid a strengthening U.S. Dollar Index and rising treasury yields as investors look to the start of Tuesday's Federal Open Market Committee meeting where central bank officials are widely expected to detail the tapering process of $120 billion in monthly bond and mortgage-backed securities purchases. The FOMC will likely announce steps or pace of its planned reduction of $120 billion a month asset purchases, including $80 billion in monthly Treasury purchases and $40 billion in government-backed mortgage securities, that would be scaled to zero by mid-2022. By that time, analysts believe the Federal Reserve will introduce its first interest rate increase after holding rates near zero since the pandemic recession struck early last year. Goldman Sachs this week moved forward its forecast for the first lift-off in interest rates to July 2022 from the third quarter 2023. The Fed's decision this week comes against the backdrop of rising inflation that is now running well above central bank's long held target of 2%, rising by a decade-high 5.4% in the twelve months ending in September. The energy index, a sub-component of Consumer Price Index, rose by a staggering 24.8% from a year earlier, with the gasoline index spiking 42.1% and the index for natural gas rising 20.6%.Healthy demand from consumers joined with effects of shuttered factories and tight labor markets have all contributed to the escalating price pressures. On Monday, data from the Institute of Supply Management showed the industrial sector in the U.S. continued to lose momentum in October, with factory output remaining constrained by supply-chain bottlenecks. On Thursday, Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and thirteen producers led by Russia gather for a policy meeting, where the alliance is expected to announce production increase of 400,000 barrels per day (bpd) production for December, in line with their current agreement. Ahead of the ministerial meeting, the OPEC+ technical panel revised lower their expectations for global oil market tightness in the fourth quarter, with the global supply deficit now seen at just 300,000 bpd in the three months ending in December. That's much smaller than the 1.1 million bpd shortfall projected earlier this month. Near 7:45 a.m. ET, NYMEX West Texas Intermediate futures for December delivery declined $0.76 to trade at $83.28 bbl, and the January ICE Brent contract fell to $84.21 bbl, down $0.52 from Monday's settlement. NYMEX RBOB December futures softened 1.46 cents to $2.3950 gallon and NYMEX ULSD December futures moved down by 2.04 cents to $2.4824 gallon.
Oil Barely Changed Ahead of U.S. Inventory Data, Looming OPEC Meeting - Crude prices settled barely changed on Tuesday as market participants awaited weekly U.S. inventory data ahead of a looming global oil producers meeting.U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude settled down 14 cents, or 0.2%, at $83.91 per barrel.London-traded Brent, the global benchmark for oil, finished the session up 1 cent at $84.72The mundane price action came ahead of a weekly snapshot on U.S. crude, gasoline and distillate stockpiles due from the American Petroleum Institute. The API numbers, released each Tuesday after market settlement at 4:30 PM ET (20:30 GMT), are a precursor to official weekly inventory data due each Wednesday from the EIA, or U.S. Energy Information Administration.Analysts tracked by Investing.com have forecast that U.S. crude inventories rose by 2.23 million barrels for the week ended Oct 29, adding to the previous week’s gain of 4.27 million.Gasoline inventories likely dropped by 1.33 million barrels, on top of the decline of almost 2.0 million in the previous week, forecasts showed.Stockpiles of distillates, which include diesel and heating oil, are expected to have risen by 1.44 million barrels, after the previous week’s drop of 432,000.Crude prices were also little changed on expectations that Thursday’s meeting of the 13-member Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and their 10 allies — collectively known as OPEC+ — will reject consuming countries’ demands for more oil to keep a lid on a market that has nearly doubled in value over the past year. OPEC+ agreed earlier this year to raise production by 400,000 barrels per day. That was before a spike in demand had raised market requirements by at least a million barrels daily, say energy market experts.
Oil Futures Tumble on Large Crude Build, Fed's Taper Call - Oil futures nearest delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange and Brent crude on the Intercontinental Exchange plummeted in early morning trade Wednesday after the American Petroleum Institute reported a much larger-than-expected build in domestic crude oil inventories for the second consecutive week through Oct. 29, easing concerns over a tightening oil market while sentiment turned cautious ahead of the likely decision from the Federal Open Market Committee to reduce the pace of bond-buying stimulus, with focus on comments about inflation and slowing economic growth. The U.S. Federal Reserve is largely expected to announce Wednesday afternoon the reduction of its $120 billion in monthly purchases of bond and mortgage-backed securities, the process also known as "tapering," that was designed to ensure free flow of the credit in the economy stricken by the pandemic. The consensus calls for the central bank to reduce its monthly purchases of Treasuries by $10 billion and mortgage-backed securities by $5 billion. Just minutes ago, the ADP Employment report for October detailed the addition of 571,000 jobs in October versus calls for 400,000. On Friday, the U.S. Department of Labor will release official data. Also on the economic calendar Wednesday is the ISM Services index, due out 10:00 a.m. ET, respectively.The oil complex came under heavy selling pressure early Wednesday after API reported Tuesday afternoon that domestic crude oil stockpiles spiked 3.594 million barrels (bbl) last week, more than twice calls for a 1.5 million bbl build. The data also showed stocks at the Cushing, Oklahoma hub declined 882,000 bbl, a marked slowdown from API's reported 3.73 million bbl drop the previous week, suggesting the pace of Cushing drawdowns has begun to ease. Meanwhile, gasoline stockpiles decreased 552,000 bbl in the reviewed week, missing estimates for a draw of 1.3 million bbl. API data show distillate inventories, including kerosene and fuel oil, gained 573,000 bbl compared to an estimated 1.2 million bbl drop.DTN Refined Fuels data show gasoline demand in the U.S. decreased 1.3% last week, with total gasoline consumption down 2.5% compared to the same week in 2019. Diesel consumption slipped 1.6%, while remaining 4.4% higher relative to the same week in 2019. Diesel demand is just few weeks away from its fourth quarter seasonal peak.Near 8:30 a.m. ET, NYMEX West Texas Intermediate futures for December delivery dropped $1.83 to $82.10 bbl, and the ICE January Brent contract declined $1.61 from Tuesday's settlement of $84.72 bbl. NYMEX RBOB December futures plummeted 5.50 cents or 2.5% to $2.3941 gallon and NYMEX ULSD December futures traded 4.37 cents lower at $2.4641 gallon.
WTI Extends Losses After Crude Build, Production Ramp Oil prices have plunged overnight after a bigger than expected crude build reported by API and further pressure from The White House on OPEC+ to start spewing more deadly, poisonous, existentially-threatening fossil fuels into the world to bring down gas prices for Americans.Despite the pressure from the U.S. and other importers, the cartel is expected to stick to a plan to raise output by a modest 400,000 barrels a day at its meeting.“OPEC+ staying the course is largely baked in, but the market will watch out for surprises,” said Vandana Hari, founder of energy consultancy Vanda Insights.Oil is likely weaker today ahead of The Fed's anticipated policy-tightening today.“There’s unease before the FOMC as the taper and future rate hikes may hurt growth,” said Ole Hansen, head of commodities research at Saxo Bank A/S.“Commodities like crude oil have been the go-to markets for investors seeking to hedge against inflation, and if central banks like the Fed turn hawkish, that appetite may fade somewhat.”But for the next leg one way or the other, algos will be watching crude stocks very closely...API
- Crude +3.594mm (+2.25mm exp)
- Cushing -882k
- Gasoline -552k
- Distillates +573k
DOE
- Crude +3.29mm (+2.25mm exp)
- Cushing -916k
- Gasoline -1.49mm
- Distillates +2.16mm
After a bigger than expected crude build reported by API (and a continued drawdown at Cushing), the official data confirmed a 5th weekly crude build in the last 6 weeks. Distillate stocks unexpectedly built too...
Oil Futures Deepen Losses as Crude Stocks, Output Rise -- Nearby delivery month crude and refined products futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange accelerated losses in mid-morning trade Wednesday after data from the Energy Information Administration detailed a larger-than-expected build in domestic crude oil inventories and a surprise increase in distillate supplies during the final week of October, while demand for middle of the barrel fuels reversed lower despite what should have been a seasonal uptick in the fourth quarter.Further weighing on the oil complex, U.S. crude production rebounded 200,000 barrels per day (bpd) from the previous week to 11.5 million bpd, the highest since May 2020 when the coronavirus pandemic shut-in a large chunk of domestic production. Domestic crude oil inventories, meanwhile, spiked 3.3 million barrels (bbl) to 434.1 million bbl, compared with calls for crude stockpiles to rise 1.5 million bbl. Oil stored at the Cushing, Oklahoma hub, the delivery point for West Texas Intermediate, fell by 916,000 bbl, a marked slowdown from EIA's reported 3.9 million bbl drop the previous week, suggesting the pace of Cushing drawdowns has begun to ease. The larger-than-expected crude build was realized even as domestic refiners increased run rates for the second time in three weeks, up 1.2% to 86.3%. This is above expectations for a 0.6% increase.Gasoline inventories, meanwhile, declined 1.5 million bbl from the previous week to 214.3 million bbl, slightly above calls for a 1.3 million drop. Demand for motor gasoline rose 181,000 barrels per day (bpd) to 9.504 million bpd. Distillate stocks unexpectedly surged 2.2 million bbl to 127.1 million bbl and are now about 5% below the five-year average. Analysts expected a 1.2 million bbl decline.Demand for distillates weakened for a second week in a row through Oct. 29, falling by 183,000 bpd to 3.686 million bpd. DTN refined fuels data show diesel consumption slipped 1.6% in the reviewed week, while remaining 4.4% higher relative to the same week in 2019. Diesel demand is just few weeks away from its fourth quarter seasonal peak.Total products supplied over the last four-week period averaged 20.4 million bpd, up by 7.9% from the same period last year. Over the past four weeks, motor gasoline product supplied averaged 9.4 million bpd, up by 11.6% from the same period last year. Distillate fuel product supplied averaged 3.9 million bpd over the past four weeks, virtually the same as the same period last year. Jet fuel product supplied was up 44.5% compared with the same four-week period last year. Near 11:30 a.m. ET, NYMEX December WTI slumped $2.87 to trade at $81.09 bbl, and NYMEX December RBOB futures slid 9.54 cents to $2.3550 gallon, and the front-month ULSD contract accelerated losses to $2.4402 a gallon, down 6.79 cents on a session so far.
Oil Falters 3.6% on Rising US Inventory | Rigzone - Oil futures took a beating Wednesday as U.S. inventory was reported at the highest levels since August and Iran announced imminent nuclear deal talks. Oil fell by the most since in nearly two months after a report showed American crude inventories rising and Iran said nuclear talks are set to resume this month. Futures in New York fell 3.6% on Wednesday and extended losses after the market’s close following Iran’s announcement that talks would resume on Nov. 29. A nuclear deal is seen as the first step toward potentially lifting U.S. sanctions on Iranian oil. Meanwhile, U.S. oil supplies rose to the highest since August, according to a government report. OPEC+ meets virtually Thursday to review output plans. The U.S. has called on the group to raise supplies faster to quell high domestic gasoline prices. But it’s questionable as to whether the group will comply, given rising stockpiles and this week’s cooling crude prices. “It’s doubtful that OPEC will want to pull the trigger on increasing supply just because the U.S. is uncomfortable with gasoline prices politically,” said Bart Melek, head of commodity strategy at TD Securities. Crude prices, alongside other commodities, have soared this year as economies recover from the pandemic, boosting consumption. Despite the pressure from the U.S. and other importers, the cartel is expected to stick to a plan to raise output by a modest 400,000 barrels a day. Azerbaijan on Wednesday joined a roster of OPEC+ nations that have said a modest increase would be enough. U.S. President Joe Biden blamed OPEC and its allies for inflationary pressure, while Secretary of State Antony Blinken urged his counterpart in the United Arab Emirates to increase production. Speculation increased that if OPEC+ doesn’t accelerate the pace at which it’s adding production, the U.S. -- possibly in coordination with other countries-- may release crude from strategic reserves. Prices: West Texas Intermediate crude for December delivery fell $3.05 to settle at $80.86 a barrel in New York. Brent for January settlement dropped $2.73 to $81.99 a barrel. The Energy Information Administration data on Wednesday showed U.S. crude inventories rose for a second week to 3.29 million barrels. Additionally, production rose by 200,000 barrels a day to the highest since before Hurricane Ida hit U.S. Gulf of Mexico production at the end of August. However, gasoline inventories fell to the lowest since November 2017 with demand outpacing where it stood from 2015 to 2018 at this time of year.
OPEC+ agrees to stick to oil production plan, defying U.S. pressure - OPEC and its oil-producing allies have agreed to continue with their current output plan, deciding against loosening the taps in the face of multiyear highs in crude prices and U.S. pressure to help cool the market. The group, known as OPEC+, will rollover its August program to gradually increase oil production by 400,000 barrels per day each month. Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak told a news conference Thursday: "The decision was made previously to increase production by 400,000 (barrels per day) every month, and I underscore every month, until the end of 2022. Today the decision was reiterated to maintain current parameters which were decided on earlier." International oil benchmark Brent crude was trading at $81.68 per barrel at 1:20 p.m. ET on Thursday, down 34 cents from the previous day. Asked why the group was not boosting its production levels despite complaints and requests from oil consumers like the U.S., India and Japan, Novak replied that OPEC and its allies were maintaining market balance and remaining wary of potential changes in demand. "From August until now, we have added 2 million barrels of additional production to the market," Novak said. "So as planned, we are giving the market more and more volume, as it is recovering, at the same time we also see there is a seasonal drop in demand in the fourth and first quarters of the year, and also there are some signs such as a decrease in oil product demand in the EU in October, which we have observed." The minister continued that this "basically underscores the fact that global oil demand is still under pressure from the delta Covid variant, and due to the preservation of various limitations and Covid measures in some countries." Oil prices have recently hit their highest levels since 2014, and crude-importing countries are feeling the pain. President Joe Biden squarely blamed the reluctance of OPEC+ to pump more oil for the sharp rise in energy prices in the U.S. and around the world. "The idea that Russia and Saudi Arabia and other major producers are not going to pump more oil so people can have gasoline to get to and from work, for example, is not right," Biden said Sunday at the G-20 meeting in Rome. The United Arab Emirates' Energy Minister Suhail Al Mazrouei stressed the focus on supply and demand when answering reporters questions about consuming nations' frustration at the current oil prices. "I would like to reiterate the importance of the consuming nations to us as producers. They are our partners, we work with them to move to a smooth recovery after the pandemic," Al Mazrouei said. "So it is really crucial for us a group of producers to do the right measures, addressing the concerns that we have received from many of the countries," he said, adding that he expects a surplus in supply by the first quarter of next year. The UAE minister said that the 400,000 barrel per day resolution will "take us smoothly through to that position, and we are expecting that the ... rebalancing will be happening in the first and second quarter." Several of the OPEC ministers at the press conference pointed to the skyrocketing prices of other commodities such as gas and coal to argue that oil markets are lucky to have OPEC+ regulating supply. "You look at the gas market, you look at the coal, the lack of having a governor of the market makes it so difficult for the consuming nations when it comes to a huge increase in the commodity prices," Al Mazrouei said. "We haven't seen that happening to oil in the same magnitude because of this group."
Oil Plummets Again As OPEC Rejects U.S. Pressure To Boost Output - As widely predicted, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) on Thursday resisted the U.S., Japan, and India calling for greater output and agreed only maintain its current pace of supply increases – and as a result, crude prices dropped to their lowest in a month. OPEC approved a 400,000 barrel per day (bpd) production hike for December, which critics insist is too little to sustain the global economic recovery and virtually guarantees that the U.S. will tap its Strategic Petroleum Reserves to bring some level of normality to prices at the American pump. John Kilduff, founding partner at Again Capital, remarked, "It's being considered an emergency, or a crisis at this point; I would expect the aggressive action on the consumer side." West Texas Intermediate on Thursday fell $2.05 to settle at $78.81 per barrel, while Brent dropped $1.45 to settle at $80.54 per barrel. Rebecca Babin, senior energy trader at CIBC Private Wealth Management, said of crude trading patterns, "What's starting to get priced in is the fact that the Biden administration painted themselves a little bit in a corner where they have to do something in response to OPEC not doing anything," and she added that releasing 60 million barrels from the SPR would mean "You're now looking at maybe $3 a downside." Edward Bell, senior director of market economics at Emirates NBD, also noted that the SPR is only tapped for emergency cases like natural disasters or war; regardless, "we remain of the view that oil prices will stay high until the end of 2021 and likely bleed into the early parts of next year." Alexander Novak, deputy prime minister of Russia, defended OPEC's stance in a press conference after the meeting by observing a decrease in European fuel consumption in October, which he said "underscores the fact that global oil demand is still under pressure from the delta Covid-19 variant." Prince Abdulaziz bin Salmon, energy minister for Saudi Arabia, added, "Oil is not the problem, the problem is the energy complex is going through havoc and hell" – a reference to the surging cost of natural gas over which OPEC has no control. Taking a slightly different tack, Scott Sheffield, CEO of Pioneer Natural Resources, told Bloomberg television that U.S. president Joe Biden should "back off" from domestic anti-oil policies if he wants to rein in crude prices: "The president is realizing all the efforts when he came into office of stopping offshore leasing, stopping drilling on federal leases offshore, New Mexico, both in the Bakken and the Powder River, have been starting to backfire some. "He's got to back off his rhetoric on federal leases going forward.
Oil Prices Sink, Reversing Gains as Saudi TV Reports Looming Output Rise (Reuters) -Oil prices sank on Thursday, reversing earlier gains in a volatile session after a report that Saudi Arabia's oil output will soon surpass 10 million barrels per day for the first time since the outset of the COVID-19 pandemic. The report, from Saudi-owned Al Arabiya TV, came after the nation, along with other Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies, agreed to stick to previously agreed upon production increases. Brent crude fell $1.45, or 1.8%, to settle at $80.54 a barrel. Earlier, Brent rose to $84.49 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude fell $2.05, or 2.5%, to settle at $78.81 a barrel, well off the session high of $83.42. Since Tuesday's close, Brent and WTI have fallen by about 5% and 6%, respectively. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies, collectively known as OPEC+, agreed to stick to plans to raise oil output by 400,000 barrels per day (bpd) on a monthly basis, sources said, despite calls from the United States for extra supply to cool rising prices. Saudi Arabia has already dismissed calls for speedier oil supply increases from OPEC+. But the Al Arabiya TV report said the Saudis will reach 10 million bpd in December. Oil stocks will see "tremendous" builds at the end of 2021 and early 2022 because of slowing consumption, Saudi Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman said on Thursday. Oil prices, which had previously been up by more than $2 per barrel, began paring gains as OPEC+ met. "A large (speculative) position was loading up" before OPEC, said Bob Yawger, director of energy futures at Mizuho. Yawger said traders then were inclined to sell and take profits rather than risk that the market could slip further as the White House calls for increased output. "They preferred to book profit than look to get burned by any Biden counterpunch," The White House on Thursday criticized a decision by top oil producers to keep oil output steady, saying OPEC and its allies appeared "unwilling" to use their power to help the global economic recovery. Top producers Saudi Arabia and Russia are confident higher oil prices will not elicit a fast response from the U.S. shale industry, OPEC+ sources said. U.S. companies have pledged to preserve capital and prioritize investor returns. Still, several large oil companies plan to increase output or shale spending next year.
Oil price recovers after OPEC rejects Biden's push for more supplies - Oil prices showed signs of recovery on Friday, with Brent Crude rising to $81.25 after sharply falling two per cent from $84 a barrel on Thursday. WTI Crude also increased by over nearly $1 from Thursday, having declined 2.5 per cent in the previous session. The returns to growth follow OPEC+ producers rebuffing calls from US president Joe Biden to further raise supplies to cool rising prices. Instead, the organisation maintained its strategy for a gradual return of output halted by the coronavirus pandemic. The OPEC+ group of major producers agreed on Thursday stick to its plans to raise oil output by 400,000 barrels per day from December. Oil prices recently touched seven-year highs, but fell earlier this week on a U.S. stocks build-up and signs that high prices could encourage more supply elsewhere. Brent Crude is on track for a nearly four per cent decline this week, the second straight week it has fallen. Nevertheless, prices remain very high in contrast to the pandemic, with rising wholesale energy costs wreaking havoc with the UK energy sector and raising petrol costs to record levels.
Oil Futures Rebound on OPEC+ Deal, Upbeat US Jobs Report --- After a two-session selloff, oil futures nearest delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange and Brent crude traded on the Intercontinental Exchange rallied Friday, with front-month West Texas Intermediate rebounding from Thursday's $78.25-per-barrel (bbl) four-week low on the spot continuous chart. The gains followed an agreement by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and Russia-led partners to keep supplies tight next month, while an upbeat U.S. employment report, showing accelerated jobs growth in October, fueled additional buying interest. On the session, NYMEX WTI for December delivery rallied $2.46 to settle at $81.27 per bbl after trading as low as $78.96 per bbl earlier in the session, and the ICE January Brent contract surged $2.20 to $82.74 per bbl. Although advancing sharply on the session, both crude benchmarks still posted week-on-week losses of about 2.5%. NYMEX RBOB December futures advanced 2.83 cents to $2.3209 per gallon, and front-month NYMEX ULSD futures gained 4.9 cents to $2.4556 per gallon. U.S. economy added 531,000 new jobs last month -- the biggest gain in three months, the Labor Department said Friday morning, with leisure and hospitality industries driving those gains. Nationwide, job growth was also stronger in August and September than previously estimated, with new data boosting employment over the two-month period by 235,000 jobs. The unemployment rate fell 0.2% last month to 4.6%, but the labor participation rate remained unchanged at 61.6%, remaining within a narrow range of 61.4% and 61.7% since June 2020. Friday's employment report also emboldened Federal Reserve narrative of "required progress" in the labor market to withdraw unprecedent stimulus measures that were put in place at the start of the pandemic. This week, Federal Open Market Committee announced tapering of $120 billion a month in bond-buying stimulus that was designed to ensure free flow of credit in the pandemic-stricken economy. The Fed has said it would keep interest rates near zero until inflation is projected to moderately exceed its 2% target and until hiring conditions are consistent with maximum employment. Wednesday's inventory report from the U.S. Energy Information Administration was mostly bearish, triggering a two-day selloff across the oil complex. EIA data showed domestic crude oil inventories increased 3.3 million bbl last week, while domestic crude oil production spiked to the highest level since May 2020 at 11.5 million barrels per day (bpd). The number of oil-directed rigs in the United States increased six to 450 as of Friday, the highest number of active rigs since early April 2020, Baker Hughes reported Friday afternoon. There are 224 more rigs drilling for oil now than during the comparable week a year ago. Against this backdrop, OPEC+ agreed this week on a measured production increase of 400,000 bpd next month, maintaining its July agreement in which OPEC+ members would return production cut in the depths of the global pandemic 400,000 bpd monthly until all output cut -- 9.7 million bpd -- in April 2020 is returned. At a news conference following the announcement, Saudi oil minister Prince Abdul-Aziz Bin Salman said, "We believe that gradually increasing oil output is the best course of action. Projected 500,000 bpd in additional fuel demand from gas to oil switch has already occurred. Q1 2022 will also see massive stock builds." Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak reiterated this position, adding, "From August until now, we have added 2 million barrels of additional production to the market. So, as planned, we are giving the market more and more volume, as it is recovering, at the same time we also see there is a seasonal drop in demand in the fourth and first quarters of the year, and also there are some signs such as a decrease in oil product demand in the EU in October, which we have observed."
Oil Spiked Friday but Down on the Week - Oil pared its weekly loss as Saudi Arabia cranked up prices for its global crude exports and the U.S. demurred on a potential release of oil from the strategic reserve. Crude in New York shaved its weekly loss to 2.8%, rising sharply late in the session Friday after Saudi Arabia raised the official selling price of all the nation’s crudes to buyers around the globe. The Kingdom boosted its prices just days after refusing to concede to U.S. pressure to pump more oil. With the cartel unanimously agreeing to stick to its plans, attention now turns to whether U.S. President Joe Biden will respond. “The key focus for the market right now remains the U.S.’s response to the OPEC+ meeting yesterday,” said Rebecca Babin, senior energy trader at CIBC Private Wealth Management. The increase in Saudi Aramco prices suggests Saudi Arabia sees demand still improving, particularly in Asia where a resurgence in coronavirus cases seeded doubt about the recovery’s strength, she added. Oil has rallied to multiyear highs this year as major economies including the U.S. and China recover from the pandemic, with BP Plc estimating global demand has rebounded above the pre-virus level of 100 million barrels a day. A global energy crunch due to coal and natural gas shortages has exacerbated the tightness in the oil market and increased inflationary pressures in the U.S., promting the Biden administration to seek ways to lower fuel costs. Earlier Friday, U.S. Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm said that the Administration is looking at a potential release from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. Japan said it is in close contact with the U.S. and the IEA as pressure from consumers grows. West Texas Intermediate for December delivery rose $2.46 to settle at $81.27 a barrel in New York. Brent for January settlement added $2.20 to settle at $82.74 a barrel. For months, President Joe Biden has led calls for OPEC+ to add more barrels to tame high oil prices. The U.S. was seeking an increase of as much as double the amount that was agreed and has been among key consumers that previously raised the prospect of tapping their own strategic reserves if the alliance didn’t cooperate.
Saudi Aramco posts 160% rise in third quarter profit, chairman calls for 'stable' energy transition — Saudi Arabia's oil giant Aramco has posted a 158% increase in third quarter net income to $30.4 billion, as the world's largest oil companies continue to benefit from the reopening of the global economy and soaring oil and gas prices. The result beat expectations, with analysts expecting a median net income of $29.1 billion for the quarter. Aramco reported net income of $11.8 billion in the third quarter of 2020. "Our exceptional third quarter performance was a result of increased economic activity in key markets and a rebound in energy demand," Aramco President and CEO Amin Nasser said on Sunday. "Some headwinds still exist for the global economy, partly due to supply chain bottlenecks, but we are optimistic that energy demand will remain healthy for the foreseeable future," Nasser added. Aramco said the increase in net income was the result of higher crude oil prices and volumes sold, and stronger refining and chemicals margins in the quarter, as the company benefits from rebounding global energy demand and increased economic activity in key markets. WTI crude oil has soared above $85 in recent weeks, a level not seen since 2014, as the market shifts focus from demand recovery to supply scarcity. Natural gas prices are up around 130% this year, meaning the full extent of the global energy crisis is more likely to be felt in the fourth quarter results. Aramco declared a significant dividend of $18.8 billion to be paid in the fourth quarter. The payout can be covered by a jump in free cash flow to $28.7 billion in the third quarter, up from $12.4 billion for the same period in 2020. Gearing, a measure of the company's debt position, also improved to 17.2% from 23% due to higher oil prices and stronger cash flows. Aramco also said it would "invest for the future" with capital expenditure of $7.6 billion in the third quarter, representing a 19% increase, compared with the same period in 2020.
US flies B-1 bomber over Persian Gulf: “All options on the table” against Iran - The Pentagon announced Sunday that the US Air Force conducted another flyover of the Persian Gulf by a B-1B strategic bomber. The resumption of these threatening operations, which were steadily ratcheted up in the waning days of the Trump administration, came amid warnings of “military options” by the Biden administration over Iran’s nuclear program. In a statement on Twitter, the US Air Force’s Central Command, responsible for American military operations in the Middle East, said that the flight of the B-1B Lancer Bomber over the strategic Strait of Hormuz Saturday sent “a clear message of reassurance” to Washington’s allies in the region. The bomber was accompanied by fighter jets dispatched by regimes of the US-led anti-Iran axis, including Israel, the reactionary monarchies of Saudi Arabia and Bahrain, and the Egyptian military dictatorship of Gen. Abdel-Fattah al-Sisi. This air squadron also flew over the Suez Canal, the Red Sea and its strategic Bab el-Mandeb Strait. The menacing military maneuver came amid expectations that talks on the moribund Iran nuclear deal will resume in Vienna at the end of this month between Tehran and the six major powers that are also signatories to the agreement: the US, China, Russia, the UK, France and Germany. Signed in 2015, the so-called JCPOA (Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action), which traded tight restrictions on Tehran’s nuclear program for the lifting of economic sanctions, was unilaterally blown up by the Trump administration, which imposed a “maximum pressure” sanctions regime that targeted both Iran and any country or company that dared to trade with it. It did so as Iran continued to abide by the terms of the agreement, even though Washington never provided significant sanctions relief. The Biden administration has maintained the draconian sanctions in place, while the Western European powers have mounted no challenge to what amounts to a financial and trade blockade tantamount to a state of war against Iran. The sanctions have deprived Iranians of imported food and medicine, condemning many to hunger and an early death.
Iran Says IRGC Foiled US Navy Attempt To Steal Its Oil Tanker Near Persian Gulf -A bizarre and dangerous encounter between US naval and Iranian forces in the Sea of Oman near the Strait of Hormuz has been revealed this week, which Iran state TV says took place "recently". Iran is alleging that a US warship "attempted to seal Iran's oil" in the Sea of Oman, but it was an attack which elite Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) forces thwarted, according to the account by Tehran. The US side has not recognized the Iranian narrative of events. "Iran's state TV said US forces used helicopters and warships to try to block an Iranian oil tanker in the Sea of Oman," Reuters describes of footage aired by Iranian broadcasters. "Iran's English-Language Press TV said the tanker was back in Iran's territorial waters." PressTV is calling the incident an "abortive act of piracy" - however, the US Navy's Bahrain-based Fifth Fleet has not confirmed or provided any information related to the alleged encounter, only saying its aware of the reports. The detailed description of what allegedly happened is being presented Wednesday by PressTV in the following: Reacting promptly, however, members of the IRGC’s Navy carried out a heliborne operation on the stolen ship’s deck, gained control of the vessel, and directed it back toward Iran’s territorial waters. US forces then proceeded to chase the tanker using several helicopters and warships, but their attempt at taking over the vessel for a second time was thwarted again by Iranian naval forces. The tanker is currently in Iranian territorial waters and under the protection of IRGC’s Navy. If accurate, the US side would certainly possess video of the encounter, but it's only the Iranian side that's currently advancing the claims of a wild helicopter chase, including releasing clips showing IRGC fast boats through state channels...
The Taliban banned foreign currencies as Afghanistan nears financial collapse with billions frozen overseas The Taliban banned the use of foreign currencies in Afghanistan, which is on the brink of financial collapse after the group ousted the previous government.The Taliban said, according to the BBC: "The economic situation and national interests in the country require that all Afghans use Afghani currency in their every trade."While the country uses the Afghani currency, the US dollar is also widely used.The United Nations has warned that millions of people could starve in Afghanistan, citing the Taliban takeover as a factor in the crisis.Since the Taliban took power in August, it has been prevented from accessing financial assets held overseas.The US in August froze nearly $9.5 billion in assets that belong to Afghanistan's central bank. Most of that money is held by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.The UN said in September that the assets should be unfrozen to avoid "a severe economic downturn."An October report from The Times of London said that Taliban officials asked the US to unfreeze the assets in a face-to-face meeting, but did not make any headway."The issue has not reached any conclusion. There are deadlocks on the issues from both sides," an unnamed Taliban official told the newspaper.The International Monetary Fund said Afghanistan can't access its resources anymore, and The World Bank announced it would no longer give funding to projects in the country.Some parents in Afghanistan are selling their children out of desperation for money, according to multiple reports.
China Locks 30,000 Visitors Inside Shanghai Disneyland After One Guest Got Covid-19 – WSJ --More than 30,000 visitors to the Shanghai Disneyland theme park were kept within the park’s gates on Sunday and forced to undergo Covid-19 testing after a customer tested positive for the virus, a move that underscores China’s eradication efforts. With fireworks exploding above them as they awaited nasal swabs, the Disney visitors became the latest Chinese residents to experience life under a “zero tolerance” policy for the virus enforced by their country’s government. Leaders there have taken stringent measures to contain pockets of the coronavirus in the country, despite criticism from business groups and a close to 80% vaccination rate. .Disney’s gargantuan mainland park—home to a Tomorrowland, Gardens of Imagination and Mickey Avenue—turned into a giant testing site late into Sunday evening, with guests required to be tested before being allowed to leave. The last visitor walked out at 10:30 p.m., said a Walt Disney Co. DIS 0.66% spokesman. Disney, which is a minority owner in the resort and has seen a spectrum of responses to Covid-19 at its parks around the world, had to comply with China’s local protocols, said the spokesman. The shutdown on Sunday illustrates the lack of control Disney and other Western firms have in China, especially as officials work to clamp down Covid-19 outbreaks. The world’s largest entertainment company has yet to see park attendance return to pre-pandemic levels, and Sunday’s shutdown highlights the difficulties of reopening the global tourism economy while the threat of outbreaks still looms.China recorded 48 domestic Covid-19 cases on Saturday across several provinces, a rate that is extremely low compared with other countries, and no one tested at Disney was positive, according to state reports. Nonetheless, the infections have prompted business closures and mass testing in a number of places in China.The testing requirements at Shanghai Disneyland were triggered after a woman who had visited the park on Saturday found out she was a close contact of a confirmed case. The woman was on her way home by train but stopped en route in eastern Hangzhou upon realizing that she could have been exposed to the virus. She tested positive in Hangzhou early Sunday, according to information released on government social-media accounts.Sunday’s Disneyland visitors all tested negative but were ordered to self-isolate for another 24 hours before a second test. The park and Disneytown, a shopping and dining complex, will be closed until at least Wednesday, Shanghai Disneyland said.The mass testing proved a surreal scene. Videos shared by guests on social media showed swarms of people—many dressed up in Halloween costumes—queuing up for tests before they could leave. One showed the Disney evening fireworks erupting behind workers in hazmat suits conducting tests for park visitors.
Beijing’s Winter Covid Warning Sparks Rush To Stock Up - Beijing shoppers rushed out to stock up on basic food supplies on Wednesday, after the government urged people to keep their stores topped up ahead of what is being predicted will be a long hard winter. China’s Ministry of Commerce published a seasonal notice on Monday encouraging authorities to do a good job in ensuring food supplies and stable prices ahead of winter, following a recent spike in the prices of vegetables and a growing outbreak of Covid-19.But the ministry’s advice to households to also stock up on daily necessities in case of emergencies prompted confusion, sending some rushing to supermarkets to purchase extra supplies of cooking oil and rice.China’s instructions also pushed up domestic edible oil futures as well as Malaysian palm oil. “It’s going to be a cold winter, we want to make sure we have enough to eat,” said one woman loading rice onto a bicycle outside a supermarket in central Beijing. A long line formed at the supermarket’s cabbage stall, as people bought supplies of the vegetable that is traditionally stored at home and consumed over the winter months.But many residents said there was no need to purchase more food than normal.“There’s no need. Where could I stockpile vegetables at home? I get enough for my daily needs,” said a Beijing retiree leaving another Beijing supermarket.Others said they did not expect any shortages, particularly in the capital. Government advice to residents to purchase supplies ahead of the winter is issued every year, said Ma Wenfeng, an analyst at AG Holdings Agricultural Consulting. “It is necessary because there is often heavy snowfall in the winter… and it seems there will be some uncertainty about the weather conditions this year. So I think this is quite a normal matter,” he said.
Revealed: how UK spies incited mass murder of Indonesia’s communists - A propaganda campaign orchestrated by Britain played a crucial part in one of the most brutal massacres of the postwar 20th century, shocking new evidence reveals.British officials secretly deployed black propaganda in the 1960s to urge prominent Indonesians to “cut out” the “communist cancer”.It is estimated that at least 500,000 people – some estimates go to three million – linked to the Indonesia Communist party (PKI) were eliminated between 1965 and 1966.Recently declassified Foreign Office documents show that British propagandists secretly incited anti-communists, including army generals, to eliminate the PKI. The campaign of apparently spontaneous mass murder, now known to have been orchestrated by the Indonesian army, was later described by the CIA as one of the worst mass murders of the century.
The Fiji Times » Up to 100 missing in collapsed Nigerian highrise (Reuters) -Up to 100 people were missing after a luxury residential highrise under construction in Nigeria’s commercial capital Lagos collapsed on Monday, trapping construction workers under a pile of concrete rubble, witnesses said. A body was retrieved and at least three survivors were pulled out on Monday night as rescue workers raced against the clock to dig up victims at the site in the affluent neighbourhood of Ikoyi, where many blocks of flats are under construction. Workers told Reuters that possibly 100 people were at work when the building came crashing down. Rescue workers used excavators to dig through rubble using generator-powered flood lights. The retrieved body was put in a waiting van while at least three people who were rescued were taken to nearby ambulances. Building collapses are frequent in Nigeria, Africa’s most populous country, where regulations are poorly enforced and construction materials often substandard. There were heaps of rubble and twisted metal where the building once stood, as several workers looked on. One man wailed, saying his relative was among those trapped. The Lagos state government said the building had 22 floors and authorities were assessing whether there had been any damage to nearby buildings. The collapsed building was part of three towers being built by private developer Fourscore Homes. In a brochure for potential clients, the company promises to offer “a stress-free lifestyle, complete with a hotel flair”. The cheapest unit was selling for $1.2 million.
Moscow mayor rules out extension of COVID-19 restrictions amidst surge in cases and deaths - Moscow Mayor Sergey Sobyanin declared Wednesday that the “workfree week” in Moscow, which began on October 26, would not be extended beyond November 7 because the pandemic situation had been “stabilized.” This statement flies in the face of reality. Russia continues to report near-records of cases and deaths almost daily, with 40,443 new cases (slightly less than the record of 40,993) and 1,189 deaths on Wednesday, the highest number of daily deaths yet. The surge has been virtually unbroken for over a month. Over 242,000 deaths have been officially reported since the pandemic began. The true death toll is believed to be far higher, and Russia has reported an excess death toll of over 723,350 since the beginning of the pandemic. Moscow Mayor Sergei Sobyanin attends a cabinet meeting with Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin in Moscow, Russia, Monday, March 30, 2020. (Alexander Astafyev, Sputnik, Kremlin Pool Photo via AP) The capital has been and remains the center of the surge, with Moscow and the Moscow region accounting for almost one-fourth of all cases in the country. About one-tenth of the total population lives in Moscow, which is the center of Russia’s economic, political and cultural life. On Wednesday, 6,827 new cases and 95 deaths were reported in the capital, with the second highest number of cases, 3,269, less than half, being reported in St. Petersburg. The Moscow region reported the third highest number of cases (2,744). For the past 10 days, over 1,500 people and between 20 and 30 children were hospitalized in the capital every day. As of Monday, 10,000 people were hospitalized in serious condition, among them 300 children. Several of the 751 people currently on ventilators in the capital are children. Russia has very low vaccination rates, with just about a third of the population fully vaccinated and less than 40 percent having received at least one jab. At the current rate of vaccination, over two months will be needed to vaccinate another 10 percent of the population. Seventy-five percent of those who have not received the vaccine have indicated in polls that they do not intend to get vaccinated. The main reasons for the reluctance to get vaccinated are the enormous popular distrust, if not hatred, of the state and the systematic promotion of anti-scientific, irrational and religious conceptions since the Stalinist dissolution of the Soviet Union in 1991. However, the low vaccination rates are just a part of the explanation for the current surge. The ruling class in Russia, mirroring the criminal policies of Washington, Berlin, Paris and London, has allowed the virus to rip through the population largely unchecked for well over a year. Schools were reopened in September at the height of the previous wave, and major factories have been open non-stop since April 2020. The “workfree” week recommended by Russian President Vladimir Putin to the regional authorities for the week of October 30-November 7 was from the beginning a much belated and wholly inadequate measure. Only a few regions imposed full-scale lockdowns, and many of the country’s biggest state-owned enterprises were exempt from the order from the beginning. No travel restrictions were imposed, and there was a reported spike in vacation bookings for Egypt and the Black Sea.
Canada’s banks get green light to resume share buybacks, dividend increases -restrictions put in place to protect the financial system during the pandemic. Banks may immediately begin increasing regular dividends and executive compensation, the Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions said in a statement Thursday. Subject to approval by the superintendent, they may once again repurchase their stock as well, OSFI said. The risks associated with capital distributions “have abated somewhat,” Peter Routledge, head of OSFI, said during a virtual event Thursday. “I believe that now is the time for OSFI to lift this expectation.”
No comments:
Post a Comment