Biden renominates Powell as Fed chair, nominates Brainard as vice chair -said Monday he will nominate Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell for another term leading the central bank and tap Fed Governor Lael Brainard to serve as vice chair of the Fed board. Powell, a Republican, has chaired the Fed board of governors since 2018 and enjoys support within both parties. He was appointed to lead the bank by former President Trump five years after he was first nominated to the Fed board by former President Obama. Brainard, the only Democrat on the Fed board, was the favorite choice of Powell’s liberal critics and the clear frontrunner to succeed him if Biden opted against renomination. Instead, she is on track to replace Fed Vice Chair Richard Clarida — another Trump-appointed Republican — when his term as the bank’s No. 2 expires in January. In a Monday statement, Biden cited Powell and Brainard's roles in leading the Fed's response to the COVID-19 recession and their shared focus on "keeping inflation low, prices stable, and delivering full employment will make our economy stronger than ever before." "If we want to continue to build on the economic success of this year we need stability and independence at the Federal Reserve – and I have full confidence after their trial by fire over the last 20 months that Chair Powell and Dr. Brainard will provide the strong leadership our country needs," Biden said. Biden had been mulling for several weeks whether to renominate Powell—who is aligned with most, but not all of the president's economic agenda — or Brainard, a veteran of the Clinton and Obama administrations who has called for the Fed to be more aggressive against financial risks. Though Powell and Brainard have differing views on financial regulation and the Fed’s role in climate change, both are in sync with Biden’s views on employment and inflation. Each has pushed the Fed toward a closer focus on fostering a strong job market and a slightly higher tolerance for inflation. Powell was considered likely to be renominated given his broad bipartisan support and his unique position as a Republican in favor of easier monetary policy. Though the Fed chair's record on financial regulation has cost him the support of some progressive lawmakers, many liberal economic veterans urged Biden to renominate Powell as both the economy and central bank faced crucial tests. "The steady leadership of Chair Powell and the Federal Reserve helped ensure that America’s economy was able to recover from a once-in-a-generation health and economic crisis," said Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, who chaired the Fed from 2014-18 and was said to support Powell's renomination.
Powell & Brainard Suddenly Make Inflation #1 Priority in their Thank-You Statements by Wolf Richter - The White House announced today that President Biden, eager to get something through the Senate without a long bruising fight, will re-nominate Republican Jerome Powell for a second term as chair of the Federal Reserve’s Board of Governors and will elevate Democrat Lael Brainard to vice chair. Powell is opposed by some prominent Senate Democrats, but supported by many Republicans. And Brainard doesn’t seem to face opposition from Democrats. Both will likely win Senate confirmation.As you would expect, both Powell and Brainard released thank-you statements about their nomination.But as you would not expect, fighting inflation was suddenly the number one priority in both their statements – after they’d driven inflation to a three-decade high through record gigantic money printing and interest rate repression, and then had stubbornly brushed off this inflation as something that would quickly go away on its own.There wasn’t a word in their statements about this inflation being “temporary” or “transitory,” and about the Fed needing to be “patient,” and waiting for it to go away on its own. But inflation was suddenly a real problem that needed to be dealt with.Powell’s first priority is now to “prevent higher inflation from becoming entrenched,” he said:“The unprecedented reopening of the economy, along with the continuing effects of the pandemic, led to supply and demand imbalances, bottlenecks, and a burst of inflation. We know that high inflation takes a toll on families, especially those less able to meet the higher costs of essentials like food, housing, and transportation. We will use our tools both to support the economy and a strong labor market, and to prevent higher inflation from becoming entrenched,” he wrote in his statement.“Other key priorities include…,” he said, well, the laundry list you’d expect, from “guarding the resilience and stability of the financial system” on down.Brainard’s first priority is now “getting inflation down”:“I am committed to putting working Americans at the center of my efforts at the Federal Reserve. This means getting inflation down at a time when people are focused on their jobs and how far their paychecks will go,” she wrote in her statement. This looks like the beginning of a U-Turn on inflation.
FOMC Minutes: "Participants expected significant inflation pressures to last for longer than they previously expected" --From the Fed: FOMC Minutes, Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee, November 2-3, 2021. Excerpt on inflation:: Participants generally saw the current elevated level of inflation as largely reflecting factors that were likely to be transitory but judged that inflation pressures could take longer to subside than they had previously assessed. They remarked that the Delta wave had intensified the impediments to supply chains and had helped sustain the high level of goods demand, adding to the upward pressure on prices. Participants also observed that increases in energy prices, stronger rates of nominal wage growth, and higher housing rental costs had been forces adding to inflation. Some participants highlighted the fact that price increases had become more widespread. Although participants expected significant inflation pressures to last for longer than they previously expected, they generally continued to anticipate that the inflation rate would diminish significantly during 2022 as supply and demand imbalances abated. Nonetheless, they indicated that their uncertainty regarding this assessment had increased. Many participants pointed to considerations that might suggest that elevated inflation could prove more persistent. These participants noted that average inflation already exceeded 2 percent when measured on a multiyear basis and cited a number of factors—such as businesses' enhanced scope to pass on higher costs to their customers, the possibility that nominal wage growth had become more sensitive to labor market pressures, or accommodative financial conditions—that might result in inflation continuing at elevated levels. Some other participants, however, remarked that although inflationary pressures were lasting longer than anticipated, those pressures continued to reflect the same pandemic-related imbalances and would likely abate when supply constraints eased….In their comments on inflation expectations, a number of participants discussed the risk that, in light of recent elevated levels of inflation, the public's longer-term expectations of inflation might increase to a level above that consistent with the Committee's longer-run inflation objective; such a development could make it harder for the Committee to achieve 2 percent inflation over the longer run. A couple of participants pointed to increases in survey- and market-based indicators of expected inflation—including the notable rise in the five-year TIPS-based measure of inflation compensation—as possible signs that inflation expectations were becoming less well anchored. Several other participants, however, remarked that measures of near- and medium-term inflation expectations typically had been sensitive to movements in realized inflation and that they had not exhibited greater sensitivity recently. ... Various participants noted that the Committee should be prepared to adjust the pace of asset purchases and raise the target range for the federal funds rate sooner than participants currently anticipated if inflation continued to run higher than levels consistent with the Committee's objectives. At the same time, because of the continuing considerable uncertainty about developments in supply chains, production logistics, and the course of the virus, a number of participants stressed that a patient attitude toward incoming data remained appropriate to allow for careful evaluation of evolving supply chain developments and their implications for the labor market and inflation. That said, participants noted that the Committee would not hesitate to take appropriate actions to address inflation pressures that posed risks to its longer-run price stability and employment objectives.
FOMC Minutes Show The Fed Fears Stagflation, Suggest Taper Pace Could Accelerate -- FOMC Minutes Summary: Inflation just doesn't seem to be dissipating even as the labor markets heal at a rapid rate. This had led some participants said faster taper could be warranted. There was also recognition that the labor force participation rate could be "structurally lower." Since November 3rd's FOMC statement unveiled the beginning of the end of The Fed's latest bond-buying-bonanza, in what at the time was described by the narrative-generators as a 'dovish taper', markets have shifted in a dramatically hawkish manner with a 25bps rate-hike now fully priced-in by June 2022...The Dollar has been a one-way street higher since the FOMC statement and bonds and stocks have broadly drifted lower. Gold pumped-n-dumped back top unchanged...And so what everyone has their eye on in today's minutes from that FOMC statement is just what conditions could push The Fed to accelerate the taper. The market is already pricing in a far more hawkish Fed than The Fed believes itself... So what did they say (or rather what do they want us to know they said)? The Minutes confirmed that The Fed fears stagflation... "The staff continued to judge that the risks to the baseline projection for economic activity were skewed to the downside and that the risks around the inflation projection were skewed to the upside." And on the pace of the taper (could accelerate the taper if conditions need)... Some participants preferred a somewhat faster pace of reductions that would result in an earlier conclusion to net purchases. Participants noted that beginning to scale back the pace of net asset purchases was not intended to convey any direct signal regarding adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate. Some participants suggested that reducing the pace of net asset purchases by more than $15 billion each month could be warranted so that the Committee would be in a better position to make adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, particularly in light of inflation pressures." On rate-hike timing (could raise rates earlier if conditions demand)..."Various participants noted that the Committee should be prepared to adjust the pace of asset purchases and raise the target range for the federal funds rate sooner than participants currently anticipated if inflation continued to run higher than levels consistent with the Committee’s objectives.At the same time, because of the continuing considerable uncertainty about developments in supply chains, production logistics, and the course of the virus, a number of participants stressed that a patient attitude toward incoming data remained appropriate to allow for careful evaluation of evolving supply chain developments and their implications for the labor market and inflation.That said, participants noted that the Committee would not hesitate to take appropriate actions to address inflation pressures that posed risks to its longer-run price stability and employment objectives. "On the labor market, The Fed highlights that thiungs may not get back to pre-COVID normal... ever...“Several participants judged that labor force participation would be structurally lower than in the past,and a few of these participants cited the high level of retirements recorded since the start of the pandemic.”On inflation (a couple of Fed members fear inflation become untethered):A couple of participants pointed to increases in survey- and market-based indicators of expected inflation —including the notable rise in the five year TIPS-based measure of inflation compensation—as possible signs that inflation expectations were becoming less well anchored.But the "t"-word remains key..."Participants generally saw the current elevated level of inflation as largely reflecting factors that were likely to be transitory but judged that inflation pressures could take longer to subside than they had previously assessed"
Dollar jumps on hawkish Fed, strong consumer spending data (Reuters) - The dollar hit fresh 16-month highs against the euro on Wednesday as investors priced for the prospect that the Federal Reserve will begin hiking rates in mid-2022 while the European Central Bank is expected to remain more dovish as growth in the region lags. Fed officials have contributed to the more hawkish view on U.S. interest rates as the central bank faces stubbornly high inflation. San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said on Wednesday that she could see a case being made to speed up the Fed’s tapering of its bond purchases. Fed Vice Chair Richard Clarida said last week that it may be appropriate to discuss speeding up the pace of its taper at the Fed’s December 14-15 meeting. The dollar’s strength is “a reflection of the willing dovishness the leadership of the ECB is presenting, versus a little more concern being shown by the Fed for inflation, so therefore maybe a little bit of a divergence on policies,” said Lou Brien, a market strategist at DRW Trading in Chicago. The dollar index =USD gained 0.38% on the day to 96.864. The euro EUR=EBS fell 0.44% to $1.1199. The single currency was hurt by data showing German business morale deteriorated for the fifth month running in November as supply bottlenecks in manufacturing and a spike in coronavirus infections clouded the growth outlook for Europe's largest economy. The dollar hit a fresh four-and-a-half year high of 115.44 against the Japanese yen JPY=D3 after data showed that U.S. consumer spending increased more than expected in October, while price pressures also heated up during the month. The greenback also reached a seven-month high against the Swiss franc. The number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits fell to the lowest level since 1969 last week, while gross domestic product data confirmed that growth slowed sharply in the third quarter. Durable goods orders also fell 0.5% last month after declining 0.4% in September, even as orders for non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft, a closely watched proxy for business spending plans, rose 0.6% last month. The Fed will release minutes from its Nov. 2-3 meeting later on Wednesday, which will be evaluated for any new indications that it may speed up the taper of its bond purchases and hike rates sooner than expected.
Dollar slips from 16-month highs as Fed hawkishness dominates (Reuters) - The dollar slipped on Thursday but was still close to its highest since July 2020 against the euro, having strengthened due to market expectations that the U.S. Federal Reserve will raise rates sooner than other major central banks. Minutes from the Fed's Nov. 2-3 meeting boosted the dollar on Wednesday as they indicated the Fed had become more concerned about rising inflation. Various policymakers said they would be open to speeding up the taper of their bond-buying programme if high inflation held and move more quickly to raise interest rates. Data on Wednesday showed U.S. jobless claims were at a 52-year low, consumer spending increased more than expected in October and inflation was rising. But on Thursday the dollar's upward trend - which has seen it gain around 2.7% this month - paused slightly, with the dollar index down 0.1% at 96.707 at 1242 GMT, compared to the 16-month high of 96.938 it reached late on Wednesday =USD . Versus the Japanese yen, the dollar was just below a five year peak JPY=EBS . The euro was up 0.2% versus the dollar at $1.1224 EUR=EBS , a slight recovery. But it has still lost around 2.9% so far this month, weighed down by expectations that the European Central Bank being more dovish than the Fed, as well as, more recently, a new wave of COVID-19 restrictions in Europe.
Fed’s Lowest Lowball Inflation Measure Spikes to Worst-Hottest 31-Year High. By Wolf Richter - The lowest lowball inflation measure that the US government produces, “core PCE,” which excludes the now soaring food and energy prices and understates inflation by the most, is used by the Fed for its inflation target: a symmetrical 2% “core PCE.” And this core PCE in October, released today by the Bureau of Economic Analysis, spiked by 4.1%, more than twice the Fed’s inflation target, and the worst-hottest inflation reading since January 1991: The overall PCE inflation index that includes food and energy, the second-lowest lowball inflation measure the US government produces, spiked by 5.0% in October, the worst-hottest since November 1990: There is hardly anyone left on Wall Street with professional experience in this kind of inflation.And the Fed still has the foot on the gas, but just slightly less so, planning to print $105 billion from mid-November through mid-December to repress long-term rates, and it’s still repressing short-term rates to near-zero – blowing at nearly full speed through every red light at every intersection.On a month-to-month basis, the overall PCE increased by 0.43% in October from September, the worst-hottest increase since May. This amounts to an annualized pace of 5.2% (12 x 0.43%).If you think that a car will slow down on its own somehow when you floor the accelerator, you’re tragically mistaken, as the history of automotive accidents shows.Despite my assurances since early this year that inflation was heating up and that it wouldn’t be temporary for a variety of reasons, including that the entire inflation mindset of consumers and businesses had changed, the Fed at first claimed that it was due to the “base effect” and would go away on its own this year, then when inflation outran the base effect, it claimed until that this was just “temporary” or “transitory,” and then, when inflation outran temporary and transitory, and continued to spike, the Fed changed the definition of temporary and transitory.But even the Fed has now backed off these ridiculous claims, and is taking inflation more seriously.Following the re-nomination of Powell and the promotion of Brainard, they both elevated inflation to their Number 1 Priority in their thank-you statements.Even ultra-dove San Francisco Fed president Mary Daly has now conceded that she’d be open to speeding up the tapering of asset purchases in December. Another dove, Jim Bullard has turned into a hawk, calling for faster taper, sooner balance sheet runoff, and sooner rate hikes. Even the doves see where this is going, with inflation spiking and the Fed’s foot still fully on the money-printing and interest-rate repression accelerator – and they don’t really want to go there.
Q3 GDP Growth Revised up to 2.1% Annual Rate --From the BEA: Gross Domestic Product, Third Quarter 2021 (Second Estimate); Corporate Profits, Third Quarter 2021 (Preliminary Estimate)Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 2.1 percent in the third quarter of 2021, according to the "second" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the second quarter, real GDP increased 6.7 percent.The GDP estimate released today is based on more complete source data than were available for the "advance" estimate issued last month. In the advance estimate, the increase in real GDP was 2.0 percent. The update primarily reflects upward revisions to personal consumption expenditures (PCE) and private inventory investment. Here is a Comparison of Second and Advance Estimates. PCE growth was revised up from 1.6% to 1.7%. Residential investment was revised down from -7.7% to -8.3%. This was at the consensus forecast.
Treasury yields inch toward highs for year on strong economic data (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury yields continued to inch toward their highs for the year after data released Wednesday suggested the job market and consumer spending continue to improve. The number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits fell to their lowest since 1969 last week, the Labor Department said. At the same time, personal consumption rose 1.7% - slightly more than the estimated 1.6% - in the third quarter. The yield on benchmark 10-year Treasury notes US10YT=RR was up 2.5 basis points at 1.690%, near its high for the year of 1.74% reached in March. The yield on the 30-year Treasury bond US30YT=RR was up 1.1 basis points to 2.034%. Signs of strength in the economy will likely reinforce investors' belief that inflation will accelerate and weigh on Treasury prices, said Ian Lyngen, head of U.S. rates strategy at BMO Capital Markets. "The market has been and continues to lean bearishly duration, which suggests that a collective shift back closer to neutral would create a meaningful round of buying in Treasuries," he said. The two-year US2YT=RR U.S. Treasury yield, which typically moves in step with interest rate expectations, was up 3.6 basis points at 0.644%. The yield curve flattened, with spreads between 5- and 30-year Treasuries tightening near their lowest levels since March 2020.
GDP, GDI, and Forecasts - Menzie Chinn - GDP growth in Q3 was revised up 0.1% (SAAR). Real GDI was released; taking average of GDP and GDI reveals the possibility that actual growth was faster than indicated by GDP alone. And while forecasted levels have been downwardly revised over the past months, the most recent nowcasts suggest acceleration. Figure 1: GDP (black), and GDI (tan), and arithmetic average (blue), all in bn. Ch2012$, SAAR. NBER defined recession dates, peak to trough, shaded gray. Source: BEA, 2021Q3 2nd release, NBER.The growth rate of gross domestic output (the average of GDP and GDI) is 4.4% (SAAR), compared to the reported 2.1% for GDP. On a year-on-year basis, the figures were 7.0% vs. 4.9%, respectively.What’s the outlook for GDP as measured? Figure 2 presents median forecasts from Survey of Professional Forecasters over the past three surveys, and nowcasts as of today. Figure 2: GDP (black), Survey of Professional Forecasters May median forecast (tan), August (green), and November (red), Atlanta Fed nowcast (pink square), Goldman Sachs tracking (light blue square). NBER defined recession dates, peak to trough, shaded gray. Source: BEA, 2021Q3 2nd release,Atlanta Fed (11/24), Goldman Sachs (11/24), NBER, and author’s calculations.Forecasts of levels have been reduced over the last three surveys, noticeably since the August survey. That level downshift is largely driven by the low growth in 2021Q3. Interestingly, nowcasts for Q4 indicate an more substantial rebound than envisioned in the November SPF survey (responses between October 28th and November 9th). The Atlanta Fed’s nowcast indicates a 8.6% q/q SAAR growth rate in Q4.In the near term (end-2021), the Atlanta Fed nowcast puts us where the August SPF median indicated (in terms of implied level). In sum, it looks like in Q3, growth (and employment growth) was slowing (as some of us warned). However, growth seemingly has picked up at year’s end.
Monthly Business Cycle Indicators: The Rebound Continues - With the earlier rebound in industrial production, slightly accelerated growth in consumption, key indicators followed by the NBER BCDC look a little better than even a week ago. Figure 1: Nonfarm payroll employment (dark blue), industrial production (red), personal income excluding transfers in Ch.2012$ (green), manufacturing and trade sales in Ch.2012$ (black), consumption in Ch.2012$ (light blue), and monthly GDP in Ch.2012$ (pink), all log normalized to 2020M02=0. NBER defined recession dates, peak-to-trough, shaded gray. Source: BLS, Federal Reserve, BEA, via FRED, IHS Markit (nee Macroeconomic Advisers) (11/1/2021 release), NBER, and author’s calculations.Consumption has not grown this fast (0.7%) since March 2021, when m/m growth was 4.5% (not annualized, in log terms).IHS MarkIt notes that consumption (along with trade and inventories data) together pushed tracking estimate for Q4 from 4.9% to 6.8% (with other data pushing the tracking estimate to 7.4%). The newly released consumption data alone accounted for 0.3 percentage points of increase (all q/q SAAR).
Seven High Frequency Indicators for the Economy ---These indicators are mostly for travel and entertainment. The TSA is providing daily travel numbers. This data is as of November 20th. This data shows the 7-day average of daily total traveler throughput from the TSA for 2019 (Light Blue), 2020 (Blue) and 2021 (Red). The 7-day average is down 14.3% from the same day in 2019 (85.7% of 2019). (Dashed line) Overall, air travel had been off about 20% relative to 2019 for the last four months (with some ups and downs) - and picking up recently. The second graph shows the 7-day average of the year-over-year change in diners as tabulated by OpenTable for the US and several selected cities. This data is updated through November 20, 2021. This data is "a sample of restaurants on the OpenTable network across all channels: online reservations, phone reservations, and walk-ins. Note that this data is for "only the restaurants that have chosen to reopen in a given market". Since some restaurants have not reopened, the actual year-over-year decline is worse than shown. Dining picked up for the Labor Day weekend, but declined after the holiday - and appears to be declining slightly again. The 7-day average for the US is down 5% compared to 2019. This data shows domestic box office for each week and the median for the years 2016 through 2019 (dashed light blue). . Movie ticket sales were at $89 million last week, down about 66% from the median for the week. This graph shows the seasonal pattern for the hotel occupancy rate using the four week average. The red line is for 2021, black is 2020, blue is the median, dashed purple is 2019, and dashed light blue is for 2009 (the worst year on record for hotels prior to 2020). This data is through November 13th. The occupancy rate was down 4.0% compared to the same week in 2019. This graph, based on weekly data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), shows gasoline supplied compared to the same week of 2019. As of November 12th, gasoline supplied was up slightly compared to the same week in 2019. There was the ninth week, out of the last 20, that gasoline supplied was up slightly compared to the same week in 2019 - so consumption is running close to 2019 levels now. This graph is from Apple mobility. From Apple: "This data is generated by counting the number of requests made to Apple Maps for directions in select countries/regions, sub-regions, and cities." There is also some great data on mobility from the Dallas Fed Mobility and Engagement Index. However the index is set "relative to its weekday-specific average over January–February", and is not seasonally adjusted, This data is through November 20th for the United States and several selected cities. According to the Apple data directions requests, public transit in the 7 day average for the US is at 112% of the January 2020 level. New York City is doing well by this metric, but New York subway usage is down sharply (next graph). This graph is from Todd W Schneider. This graph shows how much MTA traffic has recovered in each borough (Graph starts at first week in January 2020 and 100 = 2019 average).Manhattan is at about 42% of normal.This data is through Friday, November 19th.
Americans' economic worries rise to pandemic high: Gallup - Americans’ economic worries rose to a pandemic high this month, according to Gallup, but the level of concern still remains relatively low compared to historical trends. Twenty-six percent of Americans told Gallup in a new poll that an economic-related concern is the top problem facing the country. Ten percent of those polled said the economy in general is the top problem in the U.S., while 7 percent cited the high cost of living/inflation and 5 percent said unemployment/jobs. Concerns over the federal budget deficit/federal budget, the gap between rich and poor, wage issues, fuel/oil prices and lack of money each received one percent in the poll. By contrast, 74 percent of respondents named a non-economic issue as the top problem the U.S. is facing Republicans and independents were more likely to cite an economic issue as the top problem, according to Gallup. Thirty percent of Republicans and 29 percent of independents pointed to an economic problem when asked about the most pressing issue facing the U.S., compared to only 18 percent of Democrats. This month was the first time since January 2017 that a double-digit percentage of Americans cited the economy in general as the most important problem facing the U.S., according to Gallup. In September and October of this year, only 6 percent of Americans said it was the top issue. Respondents citing inflation as the top issue has also increased amid the pandemic. Just 1 percent pointed to inflation as a leading problem in September, which rose to 5 percent in October. The Labor Department released new statistics earlier this month showing that inflation is at a 30-year high. The last time at least 7 percent of Americans said inflation was a leading problem in the U.S. was in April 2001, according to Gallup.
43 percent in new poll say Biden spending package will make inflation worse --Forty-three percent of registered voters in a new poll said they believe President Biden’s expansive social spending and climate package, which the House passed last week after months of negotiations, will make inflation worse. The survey, conducted by Politico and Morning Consult, found that 27 percent of registered voters said the package will make inflation much worse, while 16 percent said the legislation will make inflation somewhat worse. Twenty-six percent of respondents said the spending package will make inflation better: 9 percent said the legislation would make matters much better, and 17 percent said matters would become somewhat better with the new funding. Fifteen percent of registered voters said the package will not have any impact on inflation. The poll results come days after the House passed Biden’s mammoth spending bill, which includes investments in education, health care and combating climate change. The vote capped off months of negotiations that were marked by internal party clashes. The bill, dubbed the Build Back Better Act, now heads to the Senate for a vote. It is being considered through budget reconciliation, meaning a simple majority vote is needed for passage in the upper chamber. The legislative process allows Democrats to buck a potential GOP filibuster. The bill includes $1.64 trillion in new federal spending over the span of 10 years, according to a tally from the Congressional Budget Office. When including tax credits in that number, however, the price tag spikes to $2.4 trillion, which is significantly higher than Biden’s initial $1.75 trillion framework. Passage of the package comes as inflation is already on the rise in the U.S. due in part to supply chain issues, which have caused prices to increase nationwide. The White House has argued that the package will help assuage inflation concerns, contending that several provisions will help lower costs for American families, while Republicans are convinced that the bill will worsen inflation. The new poll found that 74 percent of Republicans said the spending package will make inflation worse, while only 14 percent of Democrats agree. Independents are split: 48 percent said the bill will make inflation worse. Roughly half of registered voters support the Build Back Better act, according to the poll. Forty-nine percent of respondents said they back the measure, while 38 percent said they oppose it.
Biden's Build Back Better Act would have muted impact on inflation, Moody's says - The Build Back Better Act approved by House lawmakers last week would boost U.S. economic growth while having a "limited" impact on inflation, according to Moody's Investors Service."The additional federal spending would occur over 10 years, include significant revenue-raising offsets and would likely only start to flow into the economy later in 2022 at a time when inflationary pressures from disruptions to global supply chains and U.S. labor supply likely will have diminished," said Rebecca Karnovitz, senior analyst with Moody's and the lead author of a new report that examines the economic impact of the $1.7 trillion social spending bill, in a statement. President Joe Biden also this month signed a $1.2 trillion infrastructure bill. The fiscal packages has raised questions in some quarters about whether the jump in federal spending could further stoke inflation, already seeing the fastest rise in consumer prices in 30 years. Some economists say fears about the bills' impact on inflation are overblown. The main reason: Government spending would be spread over a number of years, beginning in 2022 — a point when supply-chain issues currently pushing up prices will likely have subsided."The timing is really important — that money will only start flowing into the economy maybe in the end of next year and in 2023 and on," said William Foster, vice president and senior credit officer at Moody's Investors Service. "We think inflation will moderate by the middle of next year. By then, the supply-chain issues will work themselves out."In the case of the infrastructure bill, the $1.2 trillion will be spread over five years. The social spending plan, which hasn't yet been passed by Congress, would tackle issues like climate change and child care over 10 years.Foster also noted that the Build Back Better Act would pay for itself by boosting taxes on the rich and corporations. That would avoid adding to the federal deficit, cushioning its inflationary impact.On Thursday, the Congressional Budget Office said the Build Back Better Act would increase the deficit by more than $367 billion over 10 years. But that estimate does not include revenue that could be generated from increased IRS enforcement, which the CBO suggested would be $207 billion.The legislation "is not supposed to have a material impact on the deficit," he said. "That results in a more balanced impact on the economy."Moody's said it expects the Senate to pass Build Back Better and that the final measure will authorize nearly $1.7 trillion in new spending. "Combined with the infrastructure legislation, this would likely translate into roughly $2.2 trillion in new federal government spending on physical infrastructure, human capital, climate resilience and social safety net programs over 10 years," Karnovitz said. Some economists have also said they believe the tide of government spending could actually provide some relief in the long term. In a September letter, 17 Nobel laureates — including Joseph Stiglitz of Columbia University and Robert Shiller of Yale — said they believe the spending plans "will ease longer-term inflationary pressures" because investments in things like child care and broadband could help people get back to work and boost productivity."The planned investments in childcare, education and workforce development have the potential to boost labor force participation and increase productivity over the medium and longer term," said Karnovitz of Moody's.The counterpoint, articulated by other economists including Lawrence Summers, is that stubbornly high prices are likely to persist for the foreseeable future as the economy overheats. Under this view, while inflation is already affecting a wide range of goods and services, a rapid surge in wages could cause employers to pull back on hiring.
The House’s Build Back Better Act is a milestone for place-based solutions - Brookings --Last week, the House of Representatives passed the Build Back Better Act, which boasts an array of social and climate programs, ranging from generous support for child care, paid leave, and new health benefits to renewable electricity tax credits.Democrats are trumpeting the vote as a major milestone, although the bill’s passage is only a waystation en route to a tougher showdown in the Senate.Yet beneath the bill’s main events resides something else important: an impressive collection of “place-based” programs targeted at helping particular places and their residents thrive, rather than helping people more generally wherever they live. Tucked into the $2.2 trillion bill are numerous place-based programs aimed at combating the nation’s epidemic of uneven development, with spatially targeted funding that would promote a more equitable distribution of economic growth across the country. Some of the pending place-oriented programs would boost the nation’s regional innovation capacity by investing hundreds of millions of dollars in regional tech hubs, manufacturing institutes, and regional industry clusters. Others would provide block grants so distressed labor markets can expand employment opportunities. And still others would channel multiyear investments into communities to help with energy and industrial transitions, community revitalization, and rural partnerships.An initial count finds more than 30 place-centric programs in the legislation that would fund translational research at universities; bolster supply-chain resilience around ports; accelerate the deployment of low- and zero-emissions technologies; promote rural prosperity, establish incubator spaces for Main Street small businesses in underserved communities, and provide funding for Indigenous communities. Add it all up and these items—mostly unheralded in media coverage of the package but major in the history of U.S. place-based policy—represent a genuine breakthrough for the growing recognition that smart investments aimed at strengthening the economies of particular regions or localities can enhance overall welfare and prosperity.For much of the postwar 20th century and into the 2000s, federal policy discussions looked askance at place-based policy while minimizing the problems it aimed to address. During the early postwar period, market forces reduced job, wage, investment, and business formation disparities between regions and (to some extent) neighborhoods; for example, as the South began to catch up economically with the rest of the country.Given that, the economic and policy mainstream felt it could trust what it believed was the self-regulating and benign nature of the market’s impacts across different places and communities. Consequently, Washington, D.C. and economic elites remained skeptical of ideas that would counter the nation’s spatial divides, belaboring the mixed record of early place-based interventions that directed resources toward particular geographic areas.Yet even as policymakers maintained their faith in the self-regulation of the market, it was no longer operating in the way they talked about it. Since the 1980s, and with intensified force in the last decade, regional and neighborhood fortunes have ceased converging and have been sharply diverging, with disastrous impacts on thousands of urban and rural communities.
Dems confident on methane fee as budget bill moves to Senate — A Democratic plan to impose a fee on methane emissions from oil and gas wells has cleared a key hurdle, but it faces strong opposition from the oil and gas industry and criticism by centrist Sen. Joe Manchin.The proposed fee on methane — a powerful pollutant that contributes to global warming — was included in a huge social and environmental policy bill passed by House Democrats last Friday.As the bill moves to the Senate, attention again will focus on Manchin, a West Virginia moderate who has already forced fellow Democrats to abandon one of their biggest climate proposals: a clean-electricity program that would boost wind and solar power while phasing out coal- and gas-fired power plants.Manchin, whose state is a leading producer of coal and natural gas, has said he worries a methane tax could be used to drive energy companies out of business. He said before the House vote that he wants to make sure the fee is structured to incentivize innovation and not just “punish” energy companies “for the sake of punishing” them.A spokeswoman for Manchin declined to comment after the House vote, but Democrats in the House and Senate said they are confident the fee will remain in the Senate bill, despite a 50-50 split in the chamber that gives every Democrat veto power. Republicans unanimously oppose the bill.Language approved by the House represents a compromise that would slap a rising fee on excess emissions at oil and gas facilities, reaching $1,500 per ton in 2025, along with $775 million in subsidies for companies that take steps to reduce emissions.Rep. Frank Pallone, D-N.J., who chairs the House Energy and Commerce Committee, said he and other Democrats have been working with senators on the methane fee, including Manchin, who chairs the Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee.“We have this very important provision with regard to methane emissions that was worked on with the senators and was also worked on with House members over the last few weeks,″ Pallone said at a news conference Friday. “So I believe this is pretty much it. I mean, there may be some additional changes, but ... in terms of paying for it and in terms of the actual substantive authorizing language, I think we’re pretty solid at this point.″ While the Senate may make minor revisions over the next few weeks, “nothing major, in my opinion,″ will be changed or taken out, Pallone said.
Why Don’t We See Headlines Touting the Pentagon’s Hefty Price Tag? --Intense debate over the Build Back Better (BBB) legislation has triggered stern lectures by fiscal conservatives about government spending. The legislation, which hangs in the political balancebetween progressive lawmakers and conservative Democrats like Senators Kyrsten Sinema and Joe Manchin, costs $1.75 trillion over 10 years in its present form, which is equivalent to $175 billion per year.Compare this to President Joe Biden’s proposed military budget expenditure of $753 billion for the 2022 fiscal year. According to the Security Policy Reform Institute, “This amounts to an increase of well over $12 billion, meaning that Biden boosted Pentagon funding by an amount roughly equivalent to CDC’s entire annual budget.”Extrapolating this figure over 10 years while accounting for the projected yearly increases—a good assumption considering that the military budget almost never loses its annual raise—predicts that American taxpayers will be footing almost $8 trillion on the “defense” slice of our budgetary pie in the coming decade.Stephen Semler, co-founder of the Security Policy Reform Institute, explained to me in aninterview that “it’s amazing how hydraulic the system is.” By that he meant, “they cut $25 billion for home care” from the BBB bill. Meanwhile, he said, “Congress increased Biden’s increase to the military budget by $25 billion at roughly the same time.”While the costs of the newly passed infrastructure funding bill that Biden signed into law and the yet-to-pass BBB legislation have been discussed ad nauseam on the front pages of major newspapers and in passionate debates on television networks, there is nary a peep from those same sources about the bloated military budget whose size continues to balloon year after year.For example, this Washington Post article in late September headlined, “Biden, Pelosi embark on late scramble to save $1 trillion infrastructure bill” was one of many similarly billed pieces in major outlets through the end of the summer and early fall.Imagine a headline casting implicit aspersions on the Pentagon’s funding. The fact that the size of the military budget is more than four times the size of the BBB legislation ought to be emblazoned across our papers. But we can’t imagine seeing such ideas being discussed in mainstream avenues because the military budget is considered sacrosanct—and not just by most lawmakers but also by corporate media outlets.Semler pointed out that there are “two concepts of spending—social spending and military spending—that play by two separate sets of spending rules.”
Biden plan would raise average tax rate for households above $1M: JCT -Households with income of at least $1 million would see their average tax rate increase in 2022 under House Democrats’ social spending and climate bill, according to a corrected report released by the Joint Committee on Taxation on Tuesday.The average tax rate for those taxpayers would increase from 29.9 percent under current law to 33.1 percent, the report said.The corrected report comes after the committee, Congress’s nonpartisan tax scorekeeper, released a report Friday that found that the average tax rate in 2022 for taxpayers with income of at least $1 million would decrease slightly, from 29.9 percent to 28.2 percent. That finding caught the attention of some right-leaning tax experts. However, the committee said Tuesday that it had initially made an error in calculating the average tax rates for 2022. White House Chief of Staff Ron Klain took note of the correction on Twitter. Ronald Klain: @WHCOS Um, yes.
Tax reforms from the Democrats' Build Back Better Act, explained -Democrats' $1.75 trillion Build Back Better (BBB) Act could soon become law — bringing a host of tax reforms with it.The massive social safety net expansion is currently in the Senate, where it is expected to receive revisions before potentially being sent to President Biden's desk to be signed into law. It includes provisions on areas ranging from universal pre-K to bolstering of the Affordable Care Act, and its tax reforms are designed to help finance the bill.From extra taxes on adjusted gross income to higher limits on SALT deductions, here's who would be affected by the proposed tax changes in the BBB plan.The proposed tax changes would primarily impact very wealthy Americans. Currently, the country has a 37% tax on adjusted gross income (AGI) for people making at least $10 million a year. The BBB adds a surtax of 5%, and an additional 3% for people making more than $25 million.The surtax would raise an estimated $230 billion over the next decade. Including state and local taxes, the BBB could give some of the country's highest earners a sizable tax bill."For somebody with AGI of $25 million or more, we're looking at an over 50% tax rate," says Bill Kambas, regional division leader of the U.S. private client and tax team at the law firm Withers.The BBB also limits contributions to IRA accounts — and increases the required minimum distribution from those accounts — once their balances hit $10 million.At the moment, the package also includes a temporary increase on the federal deduction for state and local taxes, known as SALT — raising the limit to $80,000, up from $10,000. Representatives from high-tax states like New York and New Jersey have praised the inclusion, saying it helps residents avoid being double-taxed, but critics have framed it as a tax cut for the wealthy.The provision is likely to change in the Senate, CNBC reports, where top Democrats are already exploring other forms of SALT deduction relief. Under the BBB, companies would be subject to a minimum tax of 15% if they report more than $1 billion in annual profits to their shareholders for three consecutive years.Companies with a large international footprint, meanwhile, would have their foreign earnings taxed at a rate of 15%, an increase from the current 10.5% rate.This tax would apply to about 200 American companies, lawmakers said last month."The most profitable corporations in the country are often the worst offenders when it comes to paying their fair share," Senate Finance Committee Chair Ron Wyden, D-Ore., said in a statement last month. "Year after year, they report record profits to shareholders and pay little to no taxes. Our proposal would tackle the most egregious corporate tax dodging by ensuring the biggest companies pay a minimum tax."
How Build Back Better Act gives high earners a one-year reduction in taxes -The roughly $2 trillion climate and social policy measure House Democratspassed Friday would create a fluid tax scenario for households over the next few years, as tax provisions affecting low and high earners phase in and out.The Build Back Better Act has tax components related to children, health care, education, state and local taxes, corporate profits and retirement plans, among others.But their start dates and duration differ — a dynamic that may have a big impact on taxpayer levies from year to year, according to projections."It's sort of a roller-coaster ride when it comes to a net tax change for folks, both at the bottom and at the top," said Garrett Watson, a senior policy analyst at the Tax Foundation.That legislative roller coaster is similar to a 2017 tax law passed by the Republican-controlled Congress, Watson said. That law enacted many temporary tax cuts for individuals and households that are slated to expire after 2025.President Joe Biden and Democratic legislators are aiming tax increases at households with more than $400,000 of annual income, or the top 1% to 2%of the population, to support investments largely for low and middle earners.The House-passed legislation would raise taxes on high earners by about $640 billion over a decade, according to an estimate published Friday by the Joint Committee on Taxation, Congress' tax score keeper. The House legislation, which may change in the Senate, would impose a 5% surtax on income of more than $10 million and another 3% for income over $25 million starting next year. It would also raise taxes on some business owners.As a result of the changes, taxpayers with over $1 million of income would pay a 33.1% average tax rate in 2022 — an increase from the 29.9% rate they'd pay without the legislation, according to an updated Committeeestimate published Tuesday. (An earlier estimate the group published Friday mistakenly said the bill would deliver an average tax cut to 28.2%.)
Historic immigration reform included in House-passed spending bill - The social spending bill approved by the House Friday in a 220-213 vote includes the most extensive immigration reform package reviewed by Congress in 35 years, albeit in a much reduced version from what proponents originally sought. If the provision is approved by the Senate as-is, the immigration measure in the bill would allow undocumented people present in the U.S. since before 2011 up to 10 years of work authorization, falling short of an initial goal to offer them a pathway to citizenship. The provision approved by the House offers a sort of waiver to immigration laws, using a process known as parole to allow people to stay in the country for five years with the option to extend for another five years thereafter. About 6.5 million people would stand to benefit from the measure directly, according to an analysis by the Congressional Budget Office (CBO). According to that analysis, about 3 million of those people would become eligible to springboard from the parole status to legal permanent residency, the first step toward citizenship. “CHC remains focused on passing immigration reform. The Build Back Better Act includes long-term work permits and protections for seven million hardworking immigrant essential workers that will help prevent family separation, stabilize our workforce, boost our economy, and create jobs," said Congressional Hispanic Caucus (CHC) Chair Raúl Ruiz (D-Calif.). "The CHC urges the Senate to protect the work-permits and protections and we are hopeful they will use the Senate rules to build upon them and create an earned pathway to citizenship to further improve our nation’s economy," added Ruiz. Still, the immigration provisions fall short of Democrats' initial goal of providing a pathway to citizenship for an estimated 11 million undocumented people living in the U.S.Rep. Veronica Escobar (D-Texas) lamented that the package was ultimately reduced to protections through a decade of work authorization. “While that is absolutely inadequate, we have to get that across the goal line. We have to. That would provide the ability for so many of these incredible people to be able to get to work every day without fear of retaliation, and to be able to live without fear of deportation. And in fact, for millions of them it would allow them the important step towards stabilizing their situation,” The immigration provisions, while a relatively small line item within the larger bill, are expected to raise deficits by around $111 billion over the next decade, according to the CBO analysis. While the immigration debate was a minor issue through negotiations for the Build Back Better bill, as the spending proposal is known, it pitted Democrats and immigration advocates against each other behind closed doors.
House Dems demand Senate ignore parliamentarian and allow 'pathway to citizenship' under reconciliation rules -A group of House Democrats, including Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, D-N.Y., penned a letter urging the Senate's Democratic leadership to ignore the Senate Parliamentarian ruling that a pathway to citizenship for illegal immigrants cannot be included in a budget reconciliation bill. "We do understand that the Senate Parliamentarian has issued a memorandum dismissing — despite evidence to the contrary — the budgetary impact of providing a pathway to citizenship," the read the letter, which was dated Monday and signed by Ocasio-Cortez and 89 House Democrats, reads. "But the role of the Parliamentarian is an advisory one, and the Parliamentarian's opinion is not binding." President Biden's Build Back Better Act, a $2 trillion social spending bill that passed the House last week, includes a provision that would provide a pathway to citizenship to many illegal immigrants by granting them a five-year parole status. But the provision faces an uncertain future in the Senate, where the Senate Parliamentarian ruled in September that its inclusion does not follow budget reconciliation rules, which state that only policies that directly change federal spending and revenue can be included in the bills. Democrats have been forced to use budget reconciliation in an attempt to pass Biden's massive spending plan in the Senate, where the party does not have enough votes to overcome a filibuster that would doom traditional legislation. Under reconciliation, a bill needs only a majority instead of the 60 votes needed to break a filibuster. But strict Senate rules about how budget reconciliation can be used limit what Democrats can have in the legislation, putting the House's inclusion of a pathway to citizenship in jeopardy in the upper chamber. But the House Democrats argue that the Senate should ignore the Parliamentarian, arguing that a pathway to citizenship has a "massive budgetary impact." "The reconciliation bill is an especially suitable vehicle for providing" a pathway to citizenship, the letter argues. "One need look no further than the previous CBO scores for the same proposal to know that providing a pathway to citizenship would have a massive budgetary impact."
Build Back Better includes $170 billion for housing - House Democrats passed the $1.75 trillion Build Back Better Act on Friday, which includes a number of provisions for housing aid, including investments in public housing, rental assistance and down payment assistance. It now goes to the Senate, where it is likely to be revised again. In total, the legislation allocates about $170 billion to provisions for affordable housing. It's the largest investment in affordable housing in history, according to the Biden administration, and will build or preserve more than 1 million affordable homes. BBB allocates about $65 billion to preserve and rebuild public housing, including to "repair, replace, or construct properties." The investment will also aim to reduce health hazards, increase energy efficiency and boost resilience to natural disasters. The act allocates about $25 billion for rental assistance. Most of the funding will go to federal housing vouchers, which can help lower-income tenants afford rent and reduce homelessness.It includes about $24 billion for Housing Choice Vouchers, which would help an estimated 300,000 low-income households, including about 274,000 children, according to a newCenter on Budget and Policy Priorities (CBPP) report. BBB also allocates about $15 billion to help build or preserve more than 150,000 rental homes for lower-income families, including funding for the national Housing Trust Fund. With the bill now in the Senate, some worry that housing is one aspect vulnerable to being cut if changes are made.
Majorities in new poll blame Biden, Congress for supply chain problem -A majority of registered voters blame President Biden and Congress for the global supply chain and delivery issues affecting Americans, according to a new poll.The survey, conducted by Morning Consult and Politico, found that 62 percent of registered voters believe Biden bears some responsibility for the supply chain and delivery problems.Thirty-eight percent said Biden is very responsible, and 24 percent said he is somewhat responsible. For comparison, 15 percent said the president is not too responsible, 12 percent of registered voters said he does not bear any responsibility and 10 percent said they do not have an opinion.When it comes to Congress, 61 percent of registered voters said they believe the legislative body bears some responsibility for the supply chain and delivery issues.Twenty-six percent said Congress is very responsible, and 35 percent said it is somewhat responsible. On the other hand, 17 percent said Congress is not too responsible, 7 percent said it is not responsible at all and 15 percent said they do not have an opinion.The polling numbers come as individuals are feeling the effects of the global supply chain and delivery issues nationwide, which have caused prices to skyrocket and inflation to spike.The supply chain bottlenecks are largely tied to a shortage of workers in the face of increased consumer demand. After lowering prices and laying off workers amid the COVID-19 pandemic, suppliers and retailers are now struggling to quickly recover and meet the high demand that is largely driven by large amounts of federal aid and the distribution of effective coronavirus vaccines.Biden earlier this month delivered remarks from the Port of Baltimore where he vowed to address inflation and supply shortages “head on.”The top drivers of the supply chain and delivery issues according to the registered voters polled, however, were the COVID-19 pandemic and worker shortages, which tracked 79 percent and 74 percent, respectively.Registered voters also feel that former President Trump bears some responsibility for the supply chain and delivery issues, according to the poll.
House Democrats call for Biden to ban oil exports and tap emergency reserves - Nearly a dozen Congressional Democrats are urging President Joe Biden to combat high gas prices by not only releasing barrels from the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve but by banning US oil exports, according to a letter viewed by CNN. The letter sent Monday to Biden adds to the pressure the White House is facing even from its own party to lower prices at the pump that are angering Americans and contributing to thebiggest inflation spike in decades. Calling the matter an "urgent issue," House Democrats led by California Rep. Ro Khanna called for Biden to ensure "affordable and reliable energy for American families." "We must use all tools at our disposal to bring down gasoline prices in the short term," reads the letter, which was also signed by eight other Democrats, including Reps. Barbara Lee, Katie Porter, Darren Soto and others. Senate Democrats sent Biden a similar letter earlier this month. Biden could be ready to use one of those tools as soon as Tuesday. Biden hopes to announce his decision to release oil from the SPR in an economic speech on Tuesday, officials told CNN. . However, the timing of such a move is contingent on the other nations finalizing their agreements to do the same, officials said. The specter of the United States, and potentially other nations, releasing emergency barrels has already helped to lower oil prices. After topping $85 a barrel in late October, US oil prices have declined about 10%. That in turn has helped put a lid on surging gasoline prices. The national average is $3.41 a gallon, roughly flat with a week ago, according to AAA. "Our primary responsibility is how do we bring the cost down for working class Americans," Khanna told CNN in a phone interview. "This is something that people are upset about. We need to address that concern." However, even proponents of tapping the SPR acknowledge it isn't a long-term fix. It's more of a band-aid. That's because there is a finite amount of oil in emergency reserves. And releasing barrels won't solve the underlying supply-demand imbalance caused by surging demand amid the economic recovery and lackluster supply from OPEC, the United States and other major producers. "It's not going to be a panacea. But we've got to do what we can," Khanna said in the interview.
The U.S. plans to prosecute unruly air passengers as complaints surge. -Attorney General Merrick B. Garland directed prosecutors on Wednesday to prioritize the prosecution of federal crimes on commercial aircraft, as millions of travelers make their way across the United States for Thanksgiving, the most traveled holiday in the country.As travel in the United States nears prepandemic levels, the federal government has ramped up prosecution of crimes on flights, especially by passengers refusing to abide by Covid protocols. In some cases, passengers have assaulted or threatenedflight attendants.Federal law prohibits assaults, intimidation and threats of violence that interfere with workers on flights, as well as other criminal acts that can occur during a flight.Reports filed in the Aviation Safety Reporting System database by flight attendants at times describe a chaotic, unhinged workplace where passengers regularly abuse airline employees.“Passengers who assault, intimidate or threaten violence against flight crews and flight attendants do more than harm those employees; they prevent the performance of critical duties that help ensure safe air travel,” Mr. Garland said in a statement on Wednesday.In the past year, there have been 5,338 unruly passenger reports, and 3,856 were mask related incidents, according to the Federal Aviation Administration.Historically, the F.A.A. has handled these cases with civil penalties, warning notices and counseling. However, under the current zero-tolerance policy toward unruly passengers established in January, the F.A.A. has opted to charge an unruly passenger with civil penalties. A passenger can be fined up to $37,000 per violation, and can be cited for multiple violations at a time.
Sheldon Whitehouse Is Fighting to End 'Dark Money' at Supreme Court -- For the ninth time this year, Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse gave a speech this week blasting right-wing anonymous donors whom he believes have "captured" the Supreme Court and "built" its current 6-3 conservative majority. "Our Supreme Court is awash in dark money influence," the Rhode Island Democrat said on the Senate floor on Tuesday. "The American people may not be able to see all of the rot, but they can see enough to know that something is rotten over there across First Street at that court." Unlike some members of his party, Whitehouse has steered clear of reform ideas such as adding more seats to the bench or setting term limits for justices. Instead, the three-term senator has been vehemently pushing for financial transparency in the third branch of government to expose how it's been influenced by a far-right conservative agenda. Whitehouse, who chairs a key panel on the Senate Judiciary Committee, calls it a three-fold "scheme" — private groups use anonymous donations to groom Supreme Court candidates, promote and defend these nominees with political ad campaigns and later try to influence these justices in legal briefs filed without any financial disclosures. "If it's the same people who paid for all of it, particularly if they're the same people who are funding politicians, then it becomes not just a problem, but potentially toxic," Whitehouse, 66, said in a recent interview with Insider. According to the senator's findings, the effect of this operation is being played out during Supreme Court Chief Justice John Roberts' tenure, which has handed down at least 80 partisan decisions that advanced conservative interests. When Whitehouse began investigating the matter years ago, he "had a general sense that things had gone off the rails" at the Supreme Court and wanted to do research to show "how big, special interests hiding behind dark money had been able to exert their power," he told Insider. In a report published last year by the Harvard Journal on Legislation, Whitehouse laid out his evidence of the dark money trail by pointing to major Supreme Court decisions that delivered wins to conservatives. Those rulings included allowing unlimited corporate spending on political campaigns, reversing the rights of labor unions, and weakening voting rights. The trend is only continuing, according to Whitehouse. What he finds most troubling is an increase in the number of legal briefs, known as amicus briefs, that are filed without any financial disclosure to convince the justices to rule a certain way. "The rule of the court purports to say that you can't hide behind a front group. There's almost no other situation in court where somebody is allowed to come in and not identify themselves, and yet there is conspicuous non-enforcement of that rule, and it deprives the public of seeing the coordination among the phony front groups," Whitehouse said, adding that he doesn't "understand why the court doesn't clean that up itself."
Kyle Rittenhouse lawyer slams GOP pols for DC job offerings -- The lawyer for acquitted Kenosha shooter Kyle Rittenhouse says it’s “disgusting” that some pols haveoffered the teen a job on Capitol Hill.Defense lawyer Mark Richards says the Congress members are only trying to cash in on the teenager’s case, Insider reported. “There’s a lot of people trying to profit on this, and I don’t think people should,” he told the site. “They’re raising money on it, and you have all these Republican congressmen saying, ‘Come work for me.’ Reps. Paul Gosar of Arizona and Matt Gaetz of Florida were among the prominent GOP lawmakers who said they would like to hire the teen as an intern.Richards also chastised Donald Trump Jr. for offering Rittenhouse a new assault rifle. “He’s an idiot,” Richards said. “I don’t have to expand on that because it speaks for itself.”
Donald Trump meets with Kenosha shooter Rittenhouse at Mar-A-Lago -On Tuesday evening, Donald Trump said during an interview on Fox News that he recently met at his resort in Palm Beach, Florida with Kyle Rittenhouse, the teenage vigilante shooter who was acquitted of homicide charges in a court-rigged jury trial on November 19 in Kenosha, Wisconsin. Although he did not say precisely when he met with Rittenhouse at Mar-A-Lago, Trump told Fox News’ Sean Hannity that he “got to know him a little bit” and that the shooter was a “really nice young man.” Trump further said that the meeting was prompted by a request from Rittenhouse. “He wanted to know if he could come over and say hello because he was a fan,” Trump said. Trump went on to claim that Rittenhouse, “should never have been put through” a trial to face multiple criminal charges for murdering Joseph Rosenbaum, 36, and Anthony Huber, 26, both of whom were unarmed, and for injuring Gaige Grosskreutz with an AR-15-style rifle that he brought to protests against police violence on August 25, 2020, in Kenosha. Trump told Hannity that the case against Rittenhouse was “prosecutorial misconduct, and it’s happening all over the United States right now with the Democrats.” As reported on the World Socialist Web Site on Monday, Trump and his right-wing Republican supporters have been celebrating the acquittal of Rittenhouse. They are using the outcome as means or rallying their fascistic base for further attacks against the democratic rights of protesters and the mass struggles of the working class.
Illinois Dem calls Wisconsin Christmas rampage 'karma' - An Illinois Democrat has been blasted for describing the deadly Christmas parade rampage in Wisconsin as “karma” for the acquittal of Kyle Rittenhouse. Mary Lemanski, who is listed as the social media directorfor the Democratic Party in DuPage County, began her heartless online tirade by snarkily dismissing the tragedy as “just self-defense.”“It was probably just self-defense,” Lemanski wrote in a tweet that appears to have since been deleted, according to Fox News.
“Living in Wisconsin, he probably felt threatened,” another tweet, which was still online Monday morning, read — referring to the driver being held as a person of interest in the Waukesha incident, which left five people dead and dozens hurt. “ I’m sure he didn’t want to hurt anyone. He came to help people,” she added in her sarcasm-laced missive. Lemanski, who also lists herself as an acting student with the famed Second City improvisational comedy group in Chicago, also wrote that the Christmas parade rampage was “karma” in another tweet that appears to have since been deleted. “I’m sad anytime anyone dies. I just believe in Karma and this came around quick on the citizens of Wisconsin,” Lemanski wrote, according to Fox News. “You reap what you sow. It’s sad people died, but when you open the door to vigilante justice, everyone seems threatening,” she then added in a tweet that was still online Monday morning. Lemanski appeared to be mocking Rittenhouse’s self-defense claim before the 18-year-old was acquitted Friday of charges of homicide, attempted homicide and reckless endangerment in the deaths of Joseph Rosenbaum, 36, and Anthony Huber, 26, and the wounding of Gaige Grosskreutz, 27, on Aug. 25, 2020. On Monday morning, Lemanski said in a tweet: “I’m going to Hell because I already made a deal with the Devil that nobody else on Earth will go to Hell if I go. So, you’re welcome.” Lemanski then posted the link to a report in The Hill about NAACP president Derrick Johnson calling the acquittal a “warning shot that vigilante justice is allowed.” She wrote: “Oh look! I was right! NAACP president calls Rittenhouse verdict ‘a warning shot that vigilante justice is allowed.”
Why Is JPMorgan Chase Making “Emergency” Payments to a Former Government Official Tied to Jamie Dimon? -- Pam Martens - We have been reading lawsuits filed against Wall Street firms in the federal district court in the Southern District of New York for more than three decades. We didn’t think that we could still be shocked by what victims of Wall Street’s abuses tell the court. But the lawsuit filed on November 11 by Shaquala Williams against JPMorgan Chase contains allegations that are both stunning and unprecedented in our experience.Williams is an attorney who formerly worked in compliance at JPMorgan Chase. Part of her role was to make sure that the bank was in compliance with a non-prosecution agreement it had signed with the Justice Department in 2016.The Justice Department had charged in 2016 that JPMorgan’s Asia subsidiary had engaged in quid pro quo agreements with Chinese officials to obtain investment-banking business and had falsified internal documents to cover up the activities. The quid pro quo agreements boiled down to the bank putting the children of high Chinese government officials on its payroll in order to further its business interests in China. In exchange for avoiding prosecution, the Justice Department required the bank to put in place stringent compliance controls around third-party payments. Williams alleges, among numerous other serious charges, that the so-called third-party payment controls were a sham and that when she blew the whistle to her superiors at the bank, JPMorgan Chase retaliated against her by firing her in October 2019.The lawsuit uses the term “TPI” for Third-Party Intermediaries and defines it as follows:“Third Party Intermediaries (‘TPI’): The purported purpose of JPMorgan’s TPI program was to detect, prevent, and deter JPMorgan personnel and non-client third parties such as agents, consultants, vendors, and suppliers, from engaging in corrupt behavior to obtain or secure business or government action on the Bank’s behalf.”One of these third parties is called TPI1, who is described by Williams as follows:“…a former government official (‘TPI1’) was a high risk JPMorgan third-party intermediary for Jamie Dimon (‘Dimon’), JPMorgan’s Chief Executive Officer. The Bank processed the invoices for TPI1 through the ‘emergency payment method.’ The Bank’s policies made clear that the ‘emergency payment method’ should be used for urgent payments critical to the day-to-day operations of Chase such as emergency utility bills ‘to prevent the lights from going out.’ The TPI1 invoices did not satisfy this standard, thus leaving the payment method open to unchecked corrupt payments and violations of the Bank’s accounting controls, the NPA [non-prosecution agreement], SEC Order, SEC rules and regulations, and provisions of Federal law relating to fraud against shareholders. Further, the payments as reflected in the general ledger did not correspond with management’s general or specific authorization for the invoice payments, thereby creating inaccurate records that also constituted violations of the NPA, the SEC Order, SEC rules and regulations and/or provisions of Federal law relating to fraud against shareholders.”
Biden keeps Powell as Fed chief, elevates Brainard to vice chair -- President Biden selected Jerome Powell for a second four-year term as Federal Reserve chair while elevating Gov. Lael Brainard to vice chair, keeping consistency at the U.S. central bank as the nation grapples with the fastest inflation in decades and the lingering effects of COVID-19.The move, announced by the White House on Monday, rewards Powell for helping rescue the U.S. economy from the pandemic and tasks him with protecting that recovery from a surge in consumer prices. A Republican, Powell faces what will likely be a smooth confirmation in the Senate, where he was backed for his first term as chair in an 84-13 vote and whose members he subsequently worked hard to woo.Brainard would replace Richard Clarida in the vice chair slot and may face opposition from Senate Republicans for her confirmation. She was interviewed by Biden for the chair position and was seen as a strong contender for the separate job of vice chair for supervision, which remains vacant.
What Powell’s Fed renomination means for banks — President Biden is renominating Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell for a second term atop the central bank, in a vote of confidence for the Trump appointee’s leadership at a pivotal moment for the economy. With his decision to reappoint Powell, announced Monday, Biden passed over more progressive picks to chair the Fed. Powell has earned praise from both Democrats and Republicans for his crisis management responding to the pandemic. But some on the left had urged a change in leadership, criticizing Powell’s track record on bank regulation. They were pushing for Fed Gov. Lael Brainard to get the nod instead. As Fed chair, Powell most notably shepherded the central bank through the market shocks resulting from the spread of COVID-19. He is now fielding criticism over rising prices while serving as the primary spokesperson for the Fed’s new inflation policy. Although the Biden administration has been subject to mounting criticism over inflation, the president’s choice to renominate Powell underscores the White House’s faith in his leadership. "When our country was hemorrhaging jobs last year and there was panic in our financial markets, Jay’s steady and decisive leadership helped to stabilize markets and put our economy on track to a robust recovery," Biden said at a press conference with both Powell and Brainard. The Fed nomination had appeared to come down to a two-person race between Powell and Brainard. The administration is also trying to fill two key vice chair positions on the Fed board, including one to oversee bank supervision policy. The White House announced that Brainard was nominated for the vice chair slot soon to be vacated by Richard Clarida. A nominee for vice chair of supervision will be announced sometime in December. “As I’ve said before, we can’t just return to where we were before the pandemic, we need to build our economy back better, and I’m confident that Chair Powell and Dr. Brainard’s focus on keeping inflation low, prices stable, and delivering full employment will make our economy stronger than ever before,” President Biden said in a statement Monday. “Together, they also share my deep belief that urgent action is needed to address the economic risks posed by climate change, and stay ahead of emerging risks in our financial system.” Sen. Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass., has already said she won’t support Powell’s renomination, calling him “a dangerous man to head up the Fed” in light of his votes to approve regulations that rolled back certain provisions of Dodd-Frank during the Trump administration. Still, Powell is expected to receive support from both sides of the aisle. He has received high marks from several Republican and Democratic members of Congress, and is known on Capitol Hill for his efforts to engage with lawmakers. Here’s what a second term for Powell at the Fed means for key bank regulatory issues:
Has White House made it harder to install next Fed regulatory chief? — President Biden may have ended months of speculation with his renomination of Jerome Powell to serve as chair of the Federal Reserve Board. But the absence of a pick to serve as the Fed’s vice chair for supervision may make it more difficult ultimately to fill that position. In addition to naming Powell to another term, Biden nominated Gov. Lael Brainard for one of the two vice chair positions on the board. But the other vice chair seat, which oversees regulatory policy for the central bank, is arguably of more importance to the financial services industry. “It's surprising they wouldn't nominate the vice chair for supervision at the same time, because it's easier to get a slate of nominees through than individuals,” said Aaron Klein, senior fellow in Economic Studies at the Brookings Institution.
Archegos collapse revealed ‘weaknesses’ in global banks, Fed says --The collapse of Archegos Capital Management revealed vulnerabilities at the banks supervised by the Federal Reserve, the U.S. central bank said in a report released Wednesday.“The event has so far revealed weaknesses in margin practices and counterparty risk management at some firms,” the Fed said in its twice-yearly supervision report, also noting the importance of coordinating with other global regulators in activities that cross borders. The Fed’s Archegos review isn’t yet finished, and the agency said it will be notifying individual firms on “areas of weak practices.”The Archegos collapse "has so far revealed weaknesses in margin practices and counterparty risk management at some firms,” the Fed said in its twice-yearly supervision report, Archegos, the trader Bill Hwang’s family office, blew up in March after making massive, wrong-way option bets. The failure contributed to billions of dollars in losses for banks including Credit Suisse Group, Nomura Holdings and Morgan Stanley that financed Archegos’s wagers through their prime brokerage units, which lend money to hedge funds and other private investment firms.
The “Tesla Financial Complex”: Financial Times Details Wildly Outsized Speculation in Tesla Options by Yves Smith - Robin Wigglesworth of the Financial Times does an impressive job of documenting a major factor, if not the factor, in Tesla’s stratospheric valuation: ginormous derivatives trading in Tesla shares. Even in this meaty piece, Wigglesworth only gets to the biggest part of the picture, which is a mind-boggling $241 billion in net notional value in option trades a day. The charts below explain much: Reader HighlySuspect explained how the options trading gooses the stock price: Market makers gladly sell call options to retail and make a huge profit doing so – it’s complicated but essentially the busy options market means call options are intrinsically overvalued and expensive, so market makers will sell these expensive options, hedge their position by actually buying Tesla stock, pocket the options premium, then sell the Tesla stock when the options position is closed. The market makers hedging by buying Tesla stock is actually one of the biggest factors behind the fast and enormous Tesla rallies – it’s an enormous source of buying. Pink paper readers disputed a claim in the article, “Ordinary retail investors have been the primary power behind the Tesla options boom.” There is a whale in Tesla, billionaire Leo KoGuan who claimed he had bought nearly 7.2 million shares by early November, mainly though exercising call options. That makes him the third largest Tesla investor after Elon Musk and Larry Ellison. But no one would consider him to be an “ordinary retail investor, even though he is egging on individual investors on Reddit forums. Reader Dave Hedgehog argued that retail buyers could not be the driving force: The typical premium on ATM tesla options is currently about 7% of the nominal value. I have absolutely no idea what the distribution of strikes traded is but if we assume ATM is the average then that is $17bn of premium being traded every single day. That’s every single US investment account trading $42,000 a year on this single stock’s options. But there is no doubt a lot of retail action, which the pros love. Per reader klog: Retail investors buying options makes me laugh as an ex vol trader…. We know they will not be hedging any gamma and just bleeding theta (but they don’t know what any of those terms even mean). And exchange traded options aren’t the only part of the Tesla stock frenzy: Tesla’s fame and the volatility of its stock have also started to make it a component in some structured investment products, such as “auto-callables”, further enmeshing its shares into the fate of the broader financial ecosystem. Auto-callables are complex savings vehicles — particularly popular with Asian investors — where bankers construct an attractive, bond-like fixed return by selling stock options. Historically they have been mostly options on broad stock market indices such as the S&P 500, Hang Seng or Nikkei, but because of falling market volatility some bankers have started to structure them with options on choppier individual stocks. Tesla has emerged as a popular choice. “Tesla is perceived as safe because it is big and at the technological vanguard, but it’s incredibly lucrative [for investors] to put into structured products because it is so volatile,” The Financial Times points out that money managers are feeling compelled to load up on Tesla, since the underperformance of the average equity fund was in part due to not loading up enough on the car maker: So many storied short sellers have been burned betting against Tesla that short interest is low. Tesla is also the poster child in a trend towards options trading dominating equity trading:
OCC to banks with crypto plans: Check with your regulator first — The Office of the Comptroller of the Currency issued more rigorous guidelines for banks wanting to provide cryptocurrency services, on the same day that all three federal bank regulators previewed further crypto-related policies to come in 2022. In an interpretive letter, a senior OCC official said banks wanting to offer custody services or engage in other activities related to crypto assets must first get the approval of their local OCC supervisory office. "The bank should not engage in the activities until it receives written notification of the supervisory office’s non-objection," Chief Counsel Benjamin W. McDonough wrote in a letter dated Tuesday.
Stablecoin advocates make their case to U.S. banking regulators -The blockchain startup Figure Technologies and other firms held talks with U.S. regulators about how to issue a stablecoin that satisfies watchdogs amid deep Washington skepticism over the fast-growing corner of the cryptocurrency market.Senior officials of the Federal Reserve, Office of the Comptroller of the Currency and Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. met last week with Figure and its partners in an emerging crypto effort known as the USDF Consortium, according to people familiar with the meetings who requested anonymity because the discussions were private. Spokespeople for the agencies declined to comment.
Congress expands probe into fintechs’ role in PPP fraud A congressional panel has requested documents and information from two more financial technology companies as lawmakers expand their investigation into fraud within the Paycheck Protection Program. The two firms, Blueacorn and Womply, processed about one-third of all PPP loans this year, according to the Select Subcommittee on the Coronavirus Crisis. Blueacorn collected at least $1 billion in fees, and Womply collected fees totaling between $1.7 billion and $3 billion, according to Nov. 22 letters by the committee’s chair, Rep. James Clyburn, D-S.C. The panel is looking into whether the fees came from “processing fraudulent or ineligible loan applications,” Clyburn wrote. The fintech firms have until Dec. 6 to provide the requested materials.
Banks combat rising threat of fake websites -Banks use blacklists, web beacons and the .bank domain to protect themselves from the use of websites that look legit but only exist to steal usernames and passwords.Continued attempts by fraudsters to create fake banking websites and lure consumers in via phishing emails has heightened the need for banks to protect their website domains and networks. Because fake bank websites come and go, sometimes in less than an hour before being exposed, it is hard to determine exactly how many of these traps are being set for unsuspecting consumers.
Activist investor calls for new leadership at California community bank --A self-described long-term shareholder is planning to wage a proxy battle against Friendly Hills Bancorp in Whittier, California. Frank Kavanaugh, who said he leads a group that controls more than 25% of the outstanding shares of Friendly Hills Bancorp, indicated in a letter released Monday that he would soon be sending proxy materials to the $315 million-asset company’s shareholders. Kavanaugh’s letter came three days after Jeffrey Ball, who has served as Friendly Hills’ CEO since the company’s founding in 2006, announced he would leave the role at the end of 2021 to serve as CEO of the Orange County Business Council. Ball plans to stay on as a Friendly Hills director.
Amex shelves wire service, fires workers on misconduct finding -American Express said it discontinued a service known as Premium Wire and terminated some employees after workers inappropriately positioned the product to customers. The credit card company has engaged an external law firm to investigate small business sales practices in the U.S. including the Premium Wire service, which enables businesses to send wire payments globally, it said in a statement.Some workers had pitched the service to business owners as a way to pay suppliers and earn Amex points, reducing their tax bill, according to an earlier report by The Wall Street Journal.
Lawmakers revive effort to enact national interest rate cap --Congressional Democrats are pushing a new round of legislation aimed at combating the impact of high-cost loans on consumers and small businesses.But the new bills — including proposals to institute a national 36% interest rate cap and impose new disclosure requirements on small-business lenders — face a tough climb, with Republicans able to block any bill in the Senate and lawmakers still busy with other legislative priorities. The bills include a proposal to impose a rate cap on all consumer loans that is similar to the federal usury limit for military servicemembers put in place in 2006. A similar effort failed in 2020 when a rate-cap bill divided Democrats on the House Financial Services Committee.
"Mortgage Rates Under Pressure After Powell Nomination and Bond Auctions" -- From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Under Pressure After Powell Nomination and Bond Auctions Mortgage rates began the new week on a bad note with the average lender full erasing the improvement seen on Friday. This leaves many lenders at their highest levels since April, but in those cases, it should be noted that today's rates are extremely close to those seen in late October. In other words, we're essentially back in line with the highest levels in more than 7 months. [30 year fixed 3.24%]
MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest Weekly Survey - From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest MBA Weekly Survey -Mortgage applications increased 1.8 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending November 19, 2021. .. The Refinance Index increased 0.4 percent from the previous week and was 34 percent lower than the same week one year ago. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index increased 5 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index decreased 0.4 percent compared with the previous week and was 4 percent lower than the same week one year ago. “The financial markets continue to discern the Federal Reserve’s policy path in the coming months in light of the current high growth, high inflation environment. Despite a fair amount of rate volatility last week, mortgage rates were higher, with the 30-year fixed rate increasing 4 basis points to 3.24 percent,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s Associate Vice President of Economic and Industry Forecasting. “Despite the increase in rates, refinance applications rose slightly, driven by a 2 percent gain in conventional refinances. Borrowers continue to lock in mortgages in anticipation of higher rates in the future. Refinance applications were still more than 30 percent below a year ago, when the 30-year fixed rate was 32 basis points lower.” Added Kan, “Purchase activity increased for the third straight week, as housing demand remains robust, even as the housing market approaches the typically slower holiday season. Both conventional and government loan applications increased, and the average loan size for a purchase loan was at $407,200, continuing its ongoing 2021 run of being mostly above $400,000.” ... The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($548,250 or less) increased to 3.24 percent from 3.20 percent, with points decreasing to 0.36 from 0.43 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value ratio (LTV) loans. According to the MBA, purchase activity is down 4% year-over-year unadjusted.
Update: The Coming Deceleration in House Price Growth - McBride- Last month, in the Real Estate Newsletter, I wrote: The Coming Deceleration in House Price Growth. Here is an update to the graph:Not only is Case-Shiller released with a lag (the release next week will be for September, whereas the NAR release yesterday was for October), but the 3-month average means the September release will include sales in July and August too.Although median prices can be distorted by the mix, and repeat sales indexes (like Case-Shiller and the FHFA) are more accurate measures of house prices, the median price index might provide earlier hints on the direction of prices.This graph - as of the NAR release in October 2020 (a year ago) - shows median prices started to take off, even though the most recent Case-Shiller report only showed a very modest pickup in prices. This shows the lag in the Case-Shiller report.The second graph - as of the NAR release yesterday - shows that Case-Shiller followed the median prices up, and that median prices are now falling. Note: the NAR YoY change in September 2021 was revised down, so there was a slight uptick in October prices YoY.This suggests that Case-Shiller will start to show some deceleration later this year - but still be up solidly YoY.
NAR: Existing-Home Sales Increased to 6.34 million in October --From the NAR: Existing-Home Sales Inch Up 0.8% in October: Existing-home sales increased in October, marking two straight months of growth, according to the National Association of Realtors®. Two of the four major U.S. regions saw month-over-month sales climb, one region reported a drop and the fourth area held steady in October. On a year-over-year basis, each region witnessed sales decrease.Total existing-home sales, completed transactions that include single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops, rose 0.8% from September to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 6.34 million in October. Sales fell 5.8% from a year ago (6.73 million in October 2020)....Total housing inventory at the end of October amounted to 1.25 million units, down 0.8% from September and down 12.0% from one year ago (1.42 million). Unsold inventory sits at a 2.4-month supply at the current sales pace, equal to September's supply, and down from 2.5 months in October 2020.This graph shows existing home sales, on a Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate (SAAR) basis since 1993.Sales in October (6.34 million SAAR) were up 0.8% from last month, and were 5.8% below the October 2020 sales rate.The second graph shows nationwide inventory for existing homes.According to the NAR, inventory decreased to 1.25 million in October from 1.26 million in September .Headline inventory is not seasonally adjusted, and inventory usually decreases to the seasonal lows in December and January, and peaks in mid-to-late summer.The last graph shows the year-over-year (YoY) change in reported existing home inventory and months-of-supply. Since inventory is not seasonally adjusted, it really helps to look at the YoY change. Note: Months-of-supply is based on the seasonally adjusted sales and not seasonally adjusted inventory.Inventory was down 12.0% year-over-year in October compared to October 2020.Months of supply was unchanged at 2.4 months in October from 2.4 months in September.This was above the consensus forecast.
Existing home sales and prices, increase slightly; inventory declines slightly - While existing home sales are about 90% of the market, they are much less important for the economic cycle than are new home sales, which will be reported tomorrow. Last month I wrote that “I suspect new home sales will increase, since interest rates stabilized at very low rates earlier this year, and the increase in existing home sales is some confirmatory evidence.” So October’s increase of 0.8% was further confirmatory evidence. Realtor.com doesn’t all FRED to produce data more than 12 months old, so here are the last 12 months for both new and existing home sales, seasonally adjusted and normed to 100 as of October 2020: Both declined earlier this year, but new home sales much more deeply. Realtor.com does provide FRED with both new and total (“active”) listing counts for the past 5+ years. Here’s what that looks like (note, new listings are on right scale): Note that new listings declined precipitously in late 2019 even before the pandemic – and the pandemic certainly hasn’t helped. Since neither series is seasonally adjusted, comparing them YoY is more useful: While new listings have rebounded this year, they continued slightly lower YoY in October. More importantly, they are down 10% since October 2019, which was when the big decline started, while total listings are down over 50% since then. In the “the cure for high prices is, high prices” department, YoY median price gains have decelerated over the last 5 months: Jun +23% Jul +20% Aug +15% Sep +13% Oct +13% While these are not seasonally adjusted either, my rule of thumb is that a deceleration of 50% typically marks the top for any such statistic. We are 1.5% above that mark, but on the other hand, there was no change from September. If the YoY% changes continue above 12%, that would be consistent with prices continuing to rise. If on the other hand, YoY price changes continue to decelerate, then the market is probably close to or at its peak, consistent with my rubric is that sales peak first, followed by prices.
Home Sales Down 5.8% from Year Ago, amid Tight Inventory, “Increasing Affordability Challenges,” and Rising Mortgage Rates - Actual sales of all types of existing homes fell 8.2% year-over-year to 526,000 homes in October, with sales of single-family houses falling 8.2% year-over-year to 469,000 houses in the month, and sales of condos and co-ops falling 8.1% year-over-year to 57,000 units, according to data from the National Association of Realtors today.The NAR then converts the actual sales to a “seasonally adjusted annual rate” of sales, which for all existing homes fell 5.8% in October from a year ago, the third month in a row of year-over-year declines, as the blistering boom has lost some steam (historic data in the chart via YCharts):The “seasonally adjusted annual rate” of sales in October of 6.34 million homes, up 0.8% from September, was well below the levels of October through December last year, and far below the peaks during the 2004-2006 era.By Region, the seasonally adjusted annual rate of sales fell year-over-year in all four regions: By 13.8% in the Northwest, by 6.3% in the Midwest, by 3.5% in the South, and by 5.1% in the West.The median price rose 13.1% year-over-year, backing off the peak-frenzy spikes in May and June of over 23% year-over-year. The increases in September (12.7%) and October (13.1%) were the slowest all year.At $353,900, the median price is down by 2.4% from June as seasonality has returned to the housing market, normally with a peak in June or July and a low point of January or February. Seasonality had completely blown out the window last year.In terms of single-family houses, the median price, at $360,800, was still up 13.5% year-over-year, but down 2.5% from the peak in June. The median condo price, at $296,700, was still up 8.7% year-over-year to, but down 4.6% from the peak in June: Supply of homes listed for sale remained at 2.4 months at the current rate of sales, which is very tight, but up from late last year and earlier this year. The number of unsold homes on the market dipped to 1.25 million homes, seasonally adjusted:The average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage last week was 3.1%, up from 2.87% in mid-August, according to Freddie Mac data.Long-term rates are going to rise. The Fed has now begun to taper its asset purchases. There is talk that it will speed up the taper. Even at the current pace, the Fed will end adding to its balance sheet by mid-2022. That would be the end of QE. And there is talk that the Fed will let its balance sheet decline sooner, all in an effort to let long-term rates rise.QE has pushed down long-term rates; and the end of QE followed by a balance-sheet reduction will allow long-term rates to drift higher. And this will be reflected in mortgage rates.A well-established phenomenon when mortgage rates begin to rise: Potential home buyers try to lock in a low rate before rates rise even more, which leads to a spurt in home sales early in the phase of rising mortgage rates.This phenomenon of the fear of rising mortgage rates is what is now supporting home sales, “despite low inventory and increasing affordability challenges,” as the NAR report put it.
More Analysis on Existing Home Sales – McBride - Today, in the Real Estate Newsletter: Existing-Home Sales Increased to 6.34 million in October. Excerpt: Sales in October (6.34 million SAAR) were up 0.8% from last month, and were 5.8% below the October 2020 sales rate. Some of the increase in sales since the beginning of the pandemic was probably related to record low mortgage rates, strong second home buying, a strong stock market and favorable demographics.Also, the delay in the 2020 buying season pushed the seasonally adjusted number to very high levels over the winter. This means there are going to be some difficult year-over-year (YoY) comparisons in the last quarter of 2021.This graph shows existing home sales by month for 2020 and 2021.This was the third month this year with sales down year-over-year. This should continue through the rest of the year, since sales averaged 6.7million SAAR over the last three months of 2020.
New Home Sales at 745,000 Annual Rate in October - The Census Bureau reports New Home Sales in October were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 745 thousand. The previous three months were revised down significantly: Sales of new single‐family houses in October 2021 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 745,000, according to estimates released jointly today by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. This is 0.4 percent above the revised September rate of 742,000, but is 23.1 percent below the October 2020 estimate of 969,000. The first graph shows New Home Sales vs. recessions since 1963. The dashed line is the current sales rate.New home sales are now declining year-over-year since sales soared following the first few months of the pandemic.The second graph shows New Home Months of Supply. The months of supply increased in October to 6.3 months from 6.1 months in September.The all-time record high was 12.1 months of supply in January 2009. The all-time record low was 3.5 months, most recently in October 2020.This is slightly above the normal range (about 4 to 6 months of supply is normal)."The seasonally‐adjusted estimate of new houses for sale at the end of October was 389,000. This represents a supply of 6.3 months at the current sales rate."The last graph shows sales NSA (monthly sales, not seasonally adjusted annual rate).In October 2021 (red column), 59 thousand new homes were sold (NSA). Last year, 78 thousand homes were sold in October. The all-time high for October was 105 thousand in 2005, and the all-time low for October was 23 thousand in 2010.This was well below expectations of 801 thousand SAAR, and sales in the three previous months were revised down significantly. I'll have more later today.New Home Sales Data Suffers Huge Downward Revisions, Inventories Hit 13-Year-High New home sale rose 0.4% MoM (better than the expected unchanged print), but this hid the dramatic downward revisions of prior data (September's +14.1% MoM spike smacked down to +7.1% MoM). New home sales remain down over 23% YoY... The downward revisions dominated the narrative... This pushed the New Home Sales SAAR to 745k - the highest since April. Graphs Source: Bloomberg There were 389,000 new homes for sale as of the end of October, the most in 13 years -- though 28% of those houses were not yet started. At the current sales pace, it would take 6.3 months to exhaust the supply of new homes, compared with 3.6 months at the start of the year. Sales SAAR has been dropping as prices have soared... As Mean and Median home prices hit record highs... How are you going to let these homeowners down gently Mr.Powell?
New Home Sales: Record 109 thousand homes have not been started – Bill McBride - Today, in the Real Estate Newsletter: New Home Sales: Record 109 thousand homes have not been started Brief excerpt: Sales, year to date in 2021, are 4.4% below sales in 2020, and new home sales in 2021 will finish solidly below sales in 2020 - since sales in 2020 finished stronThis graph shows new home sales for 2020 and 2021 by month (Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate).The year-over-year comparisons were easy in the first half of 2021 - especially in March and April. However, sales will likely be down year-over-year for the remainder of 2021 - since the selling season was delayed in 2020. ..The next graph shows the months of supply by stage of construction. “Months of supply” is inventory at each stage, divided by the sales rate.
The inventory of completed homes for sale was at 38 thousand in October, just above the record low of 33 thousand in March, April, May and July 2021. That is about 0.6 months of completed supply (red line). This is about half the normal level.The inventory of new homes under construction is at 3.9 months (blue line) - well above the normal level. This elevated level of homes under construction is due to supply chain constraints.And a record 109 thousand homes have not been started - about 1.8 months of supply (grey line) - almost double the normal level. Homebuilders are probably waiting to start some homes until they have a firmer grasp on prices.
CVS to Close 900 Stores, Convert Others from Retail to Services, as Ecommerce Competitors Gobble up Pharmacy Revenues | Wolf Street --CVS – after a series of acquisitions, the largest pharmacy chain in the US – said that it would close 900 stores over the next three years, and convert many of the remaining stores to selling healthcare services instead of the stuff they now sell, as the profitable prescription drug business is wandering off to competitors on the internet.CVS is thereby following in the footsteps of Walgreens, which already closed nearly 600 stores in the US over the past two years and bought its way into healthcare services by acquiring a controlling stake in VillageMD for $5.2 billion.Walgreens closed the stores in order to cut costs to put a stop to the plunge in its earnings. The 600 stores it closed include a few of its 60-plus stores in San Francisco (there’s one every few blocks) where the shift to online pharmacy sales by the dominant healthcare provider Kaiser Permanente has clobbered Walgreens, which ridiculously blamed shoplifting for closing those stores in San Francisco, thereby creating perfect clickbait for the brain-dead global media that without further research or thought regurgitated this nonsense,and thereby covered up the real reasons for Walgreen’s store closures in San Francisco.Refreshingly, CVS chose not to go that route to explain its store closures – but stuck to reality: As part of its “strategic review of its retail business,” it has evaluated “changes in population, consumer buying patterns, and future health needs,” it said in its press release. It therefore has decided to shift to sales of services and away from sales of goods.It’s going to be much less of a retailer and much more of a service provider. Let the internet take care of retail.CVS said it would:
- Reduce the store density and close 900 stores at a rate of 300 stores per year over the next three years.
- Convert some of the remaining stores “to offering primary care services,” thereby switching those stores from retailers that sell goods to healthcare service providers.
- Convert some of the remaining stores to “enhanced versions of HealthHUB locations” that offer health-related services, such as treating common illnesses and chronic conditions, along with telehealth visits, and sell some products such as supplements.
- Keep some “traditional CVS Pharmacy stores” that sell prescription drugs in addition to healthcare services, and the stuff you find on the shelves and racks in a CVS store.
The store closures will cost around $1.0 billion to $1.2 billion in impairment charges in Q4, CVS said. And while it was at it, it lowered its EPS for the full year of 2021 by about 11%.Like Walgreens, CVS is getting hit hard by the shift of the profitable prescription drug business to the Internet and the telephone. This is being done directly by various big healthcare providers, such as Kaiser Permanente, by Amazon, by Costco, and by everyone and their dog, by CVS and Walgreens too.Prescription drugs are light-weight and high-value, and transportation costs don’t matter that much, and the pharmacy operations are already local, and their inventory is already local, and they might as well sell them online and deliver them the next day, and not have to worry about retail operations.CVS didn’t say how many of its 10,000 or so stores would remain classic CVS retail stores with prescription drug counters, and how many stores would be shifted to service providers.
Best Buy CEO says rising thefts are 'traumatic' for employees - The CEO of Best Buy said the recent spate of mass store thefts is hurting the company's business and has been "traumatic" for employees. Corie Barry told CNBC's "Squawk Box" on Tuesday she is "seeing more loosely organized groups come together and target our stores," a trend that is scaring employees. "What I would really stress here is, for our employees, these are really traumatic experiences," she said. "Obviously, their safety is our first priority." Best Buy will combat the issue by working more closely with local law enforcement and locking up more products, in an effort to implement more safeguards and prevent theft and looting. "They are happening more and more across the country," Barry said. "It's really been a horrible change in the trajectory of the business, and one we are working hard to try and stem." A variety of stores nationwide are experiencing a rise in shoplifting. Walgreens announced in October it was closing five stores because of crime sprees, while two Nordstroms in California were hit this week by mobs of thieves. Best Buy has seen a number of electronics and devices stolen at its stores, too.
What is happening with U.S. gasoline prices? (Reuters) - The United States uses more gasoline than any other nation in the world, and lately Americans have grown concerned about the swift rise in costs at the pump. The White House on Tuesday announced plans to release millions of barrels of oil from strategic reserves in coordination with other nations in hopes of lowering costs. The average retail price of gasoline was most recently at $3.40 for a regular gallon, up from roughly $2.11 at this time a year ago. The swift increase - 61% over 12 months - has alarmed consumers. A projected 48.3 million people are expected to hit the roads over Thanksgiving, according to the American Automobile Association, nearly 4 million more than last year, though still short of 2019 levels. The cost of a gallon of regular gasoline hit $4.11 in July 2008. The current cost is still substantially lower than that, but a rise this swift is rare. . Crude oil accounts for more than half of the cost, according to the U.S. Energy Department. That price is largely determined by supply and demand worldwide. Consumers pay additional costs for blending ethanol and other additives, as well as for distribution and marketing. Those costs have risen significantly, according to Tom Kloza, global head of energy analysis at the Oil Price Information Service (OPIS). “Gasoline you get at the pump is really containing eight or nine different elements, all of which have increased in cost in recent months,” said Kloza. Roughly 17% of the cost comes from taxes. The federal gasoline tax is 18 cents, while the average taxes and fees per state is 30 cents, though this varies
Biden releasing oil from Strategic Petroleum Reserve to help lower gas prices - CBS News --President Biden on Tuesday announced a plan to release oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR), in coordination with other countries, as part of efforts to tamp down high gas prices facing American consumers with the busy Thanksgiving holiday and travel season beginning. The Department of Energy will release 50 million barrels of oil from the SPR, of which 32 million will be an exchange of oil that will be returned in the years ahead, and 18 million will be the acceleration of a sale of oil previously authorized by Congress, according to the White House. The president spoke of his efforts to stem surging gas prices during remarks from the White House, noting that the nation has experienced gas prices surpassing $3 per gallon as recently as 2012, 2014 and 2019. "The fact is we always get through those spikes, but we're going to get through this one as well and hopefully faster," he said. "But it doesn't mean we should just stand by idly and wait for prices to drop on their own. Instead, we're taking action." The move is part of a coordinated effort with major energy-consuming nations including China, India, Japan, South Korea and the United Kingdom to release reserves of crude oil. The White House said the agreement is the culmination of weeks of talks with other nations as part of Mr. Biden's efforts to address the lack of oil supply stemming from the COVID-19 pandemic. "This coordinated action will help us deal with the lack of supply, which in turn helps ease prices," the president said. "The bottom line: today we're launching a major effort to moderate the price of oil, an effort that will span the globe in its reach and ultimately reach your corner gas station." The White House said Mr. Biden's move is a reflection of his commitment "to do everything in his power to bring down costs for the American people and continue our strong economic recovery." The president "stands ready to take additional action" if it is needed, the White House said, and "is prepared to use his full authorities working in coordination with the rest of the world to maintain adequate supply as we exit the pandemic." If successful, the move would pit the countries against the OPEC coalition — including Russia and Saudi Arabia — for control over oil prices. The president conceded in his remarks that the combined action with other nations won't move prices at the pump overnight, but said "it will make a difference."
Energy expenditures as a percentage of PCE -Note: Back in early 2016, I noted that energy expenditures as a percentage of PCE had hit an all-time low. Here is an update through the recently released October PCE report. Below is a graph of expenditures on energy goods and services as a percent of total personal consumption expenditures through October 2021. This is one of the measures that Professor Hamilton at Econbrowser looks at to evaluate any drag on GDP from energy prices.Data source: BEA.The huge spikes in energy prices during the oil crisis of 1973 and 1979 are obvious. As is the increase in energy prices during the 2001 through 2008 period. In general, energy expenditures as a percent of PCE have been trending down for years. At the beginning of the pandemic, energy expenditures as a percentage of PCE, fell to a record low of 3.3% in May 2020. In October 2021, energy expenditures as a percentage of PCE had rebounded and were at 4.1% of PCE. This is slightly above the pre-pandemic level in early 2020.
Personal Income increased 0.5% in October; Spending increased 1.3% -- The BEA released the Personal Income and Outlays, October 2021 report: Personal income increased $93.4 billion (0.5 percent) in October according to estimates released today by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Disposable personal income (DPI) increased $63.0 billion (0.3 percent) and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $214.3 billion (1.3 percent).Real DPI decreased 0.3 percent in October and Real PCE increased 0.7 percent; goods increased 1.0 percent and services increased 0.5 percent. The PCE price index increased 0.6 percent. Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index increased 0.4 percent.The October PCE price index increased 5.0 percent year-over-year and the October PCE price index, excluding food and energy, increased 4.1 percent year-over-year.The following graph shows real Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) through October 2021 (2012 dollars). Note that the y-axis doesn't start at zero to better show the change. The dashed red lines are the quarterly levels for real PCE. Personal income and personal spending were above expectations, and the increase in the PCE price index was above expectations.
Supply Shortages Are Easing in U.S. and Worsening in Europe - The supply crunch that’s helped drive inflation to multi-decade highs shows some signs of easing in the U.S. -– but it’s still getting worse in Europe. That’s the takeaway from the latest readings on Bloomberg Economics’ new set of supply indicators. The U.S. measure declined in October, while remaining at a historically elevated level, suggesting shortages are becoming less severe. If the trend continues into 2022, sticker-shock for U.S. consumers should begin to fade. That could make life at least a bit easier for newly reappointed Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, who’s under pressure to tighten monetary policy as prices surge. The improvement in the U.S.’s supply crunch backs up President Joe Biden’s view that bottlenecks are easing after his administration moved to smooth operations at West Coast ports. His popularity has fallen recently amid economic concerns like inflation, with just 43% of voters approving of his job performance, according to an analysis of polls by FiveThirtyEight. “More goods are moving more quickly and more cheaply out of our ports, onto your doorsteps, and onto store shelves,” Biden said Tuesday. Major retailers such as Walmart Inc., Target Corp. and Home Depot Inc. “have confirmed that their shelves will be well-stocked in stores this holiday season,” he said. The U.S. supply indicator –- and comparable Bloomberg Economics gauges for the euro area and U.K. -- draws on a range of data from factory gate prices to inventories and order backlogs. Positive readings, as in the past few months, point to constraints, while negative ones –- like in the early months of the Covid crisis –- mean goods are relatively abundant. The U.S. measure shows that supply shortages peaked in the summer and have been trending modestly lower since then. That’s helped by declines in the backlog of orders and prices for manufacturing firms, both of which have edged down from summer highs. So have prices for industrial materials, and the order-to-inventory ratio for retailers. Not all components of the U.S. gauge are improving. Supply constraints in the services sector continue to worsen, and the shortage of workers doesn’t appear to be easing. With the country’s inflation rate at 6.2% and expected to climb higher in the coming months, one concern for the Fed will be if temporary drivers of high prices -- linked to the supply crunch -- give way to more lasting ones as wages pick up.
Texas wins contest to host Samsung's new $17 billion chip plant (Reuters) - Samsung Electronics Co Ltd said on Wednesday it had picked Taylor, Texas as the location for a new $17 billion plant to make advanced chips for functions such as mobile, 5G, high-performance computing and artificial intelligence.The plant would create 2,000 high-tech jobs with construction to begin in the first half of next year, and production due to start in the second half of 2024, the South Korean tech giant said. It would also create at least 6,500 construction jobs, Texas Governor Greg Abbott said.The world's biggest memory chipmaker and second-largest contract chip manufacturer had also considered sites in Arizona and New York for the plant, which will be much bigger than its only other U.S. chip plant in Austin, Texas. The company said it chose Texas based on factors such as infrastructure stability, government support and proximity to its existing plant. Samsung is joining rivals TSMC and Intel in the race to expand chip contract manufacturing in the United States, where the sector is seen as an area of strategic competition with China. U.S. President Joe Biden's administration has promised billions of dollars in federal funding to boost chip manufacturing and research to ensure it has an edge over China in advanced technologies and to address shortages for critical industries like autos.
Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Decrease to 199,000 - The DOL reported: In the week ending November 20, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 199,000, a decrease of 71,000 from the previous week's revised level. This is the lowest level for initial claims since November 15, 1969 when it was 197,000. The previous week's level was revised up by 2,000 from 268,000 to 270,000. The 4-week moving average was 252,250, a decrease of 21,000 from the previous week's revised average. This is the lowest level for this average since March 14, 2020 when it was 225,500. The previous week's average was revised up by 500 from 272,750 to 273,250. The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims since 1971. The dashed line on the graph is the current 4-week average. The four-week average of weekly unemployment claims decreased to 252,250.The previous week was revised up.Regular state continued claims decreased to 2,049,000 (SA) from 2,109,000 (SA) the previous week. Weekly claims were well below the consensus forecast.
U.S. weekly jobless claims hit 52-year low, economy regaining speed (Reuters) - The number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits dropped to their lowest level since 1969 last week, pointing to sustained strength in the economy as a year marked by shortages and an unending pandemic winds down. The plunge in claims reported by the Labor Department on Wednesday was exaggerated by the model the government uses to strip out seasonal fluctuations from the data. Still, the labor market recovery is gathering momentum, with the number of people on unemployment rolls hitting the lowest level since mid-March 2020 when the economy was in the grips of the first wave of COVID-19 infections. "There might be some seasonal adjustment problems, but the handwriting is on the wall and all the anecdotal reports on how companies cannot find the help they need are true," Initial claims for state unemployment benefits tumbled 71,000 to a seasonally adjusted 199,000 for the week ended Nov. 20, the lowest level since mid-November 1969. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast 260,000 applications for the latest week. The decline pushed applications below their pre-pandemic average of about 220,000. Unadjusted claims increased 18,187 to 258,622 last week amid a surge in Virginia, which offset declines in California, Kentucky and Missouri. The report was published early because of the Thanksgiving holiday on Thursday. The data could become noisy over the holiday season. Claims have declined from a record high of 6.149 million in early April 2020, and are now in a zone viewed as consistent with a healthy labor market, though an acute shortage of labor caused by the pandemic is hindering faster job growth. The number of people continuing to receive benefits after an initial week of aid dropped 60,000 to 2.049 million in the week ended Nov. 13, the claims report showed. That was the lowest level since the mid-March in 2020. Employment growth has averaged 582,000 jobs per month this year. There were 10.4 million job openings as of the end of September. The workforce is down 3 million people from its pre-pandemic level, even as generous federal government-funded benefits have expired, schools have reopened for in-person learning and companies are raising wages. The plunge in claims is consistent with data on retail sales and manufacturing production that have suggested the economy was regaining momentum in the fourth quarter after hitting a speed bump in the July-September period as coronavirus cases flared up over the summer and shortages became more widespread..
Lights, camera.. anyone? Film studios can't get the crew (Reuters) - Hollywood flocked to central Europe during the pandemic when film producers there were allowed to keep the cameras rolling, making the region an irresistible draw for streaming giants captivated by castles and tax breaks. Now, though, some production companies may have bitten off more than they can chew as the region, one of the world's biggest hubs, has enjoyed a record leap Link in new U.S. movie and television business to about $1 billion this year. They, like many peers globally, are struggling to find enough qualified staff to keep pace with the huge appetite of clients like Netflix NFLX.O , Amazon AMZN.O and Apple AAPL.O vying with each other to deliver new content and feed consumer demand turbo-charged by lockdowns around the world. Even Hungary's state-of-the-art Korda Studios, a giant of the sector with one of the world's biggest sound stage, told Reuters is was focusing on fewer shows and movies to maintain quality. And it has had to come up with imaginative ways to do more with less. "Set directors and designers have to be smarter about shooting angles," said Chief Executive Gyorgy Rajnai. "Now we build a house with three sides instead of four. We save on resources, time and people." Korda is also importing camera and set-construction crews from countries like Slovakia, Romania, Croatia, he said. Other production companies are hiring less experienced staff and in some cases turning down new work altogether, according to interviews with several industry executives and workers.
Burnout and quit rates are rising. Here's how businesses can attack the problems. - More than half of American workers are burnt out — and most agree that a four-day work week would help. The findings, from a workforce survey for Eagle Hill Consulting conducted by Ipsos from Aug. 11-16, 2021, found that 53% of working Americans said they were feeling burnt out at work, with those ages 18 to 34 reported the highest rate of burnout at 62%.Workers 55 and older reported the lowest rates of burnout, with 33% saying they were, and 58% of those aged 35 to 54 reported burnout.“Both employers and employees are near the breaking point. Employers are struggling to find workers, and employees are stressed at work,” says Melissa Jezior, president and CEO of Eagle Hill Consulting. “Unfortunately, the workforce situation likely will worsen before it gets better, with one-third of the workforce planning to leave their job soon. The so-called Great Resignation means that employers must start a Great Re-Evaluation, re-thinking everything from their culture to how work gets done.”Employees continue to quit in record numbers, according to fresh at a from the Bureau of Labor statistics. The number of Americans who quit their job in September rose to 3% — the highest ever rate recorded since the BLS began collecting data in 2000.That works out to 4.4 million people quitting their jobs in September, up 164,000 from August. The so-called "quit rate" was highest in accommodation and food services, at 6.6%, with retail trade at 4.8%.The causes of burnout, according to those surveyed, are obvious. About 52% of workers pointed to the workload, followed by a lack of communication, juggling personal and work life and time pressures.“Employee burnout was simmering even before the pandemic, and now it’s boiled over for more than half of workers. It’s simply an unsustainable situation for a business when burnout is rising and the labor shortage continues,” Jezior said. Meanwhile the labor force participation rate, or the number of adults who work at jobs compared to the overall population, remains at 61.6% in October, unchanged from September, and the lowest it has been since the mid 1970s, according to Federal Reserve data. And it might also be years before the labor force and overall participation rates in the workforce return to normal levels. Some have projected the labor shortage will actually get even worse due to demographic shifts.
Huntington West Virginia hospital strike enters third week -Nine-hundred staff at Cabell-Huntington Hospital (CHH) remain on strike three weeks after rejecting a contract that would drastically increase health insurance premiums and lower take-home pay. Licensed practical nurses, maintenance and cleaning staff, lab technicians and others organized under SEIU District 1199 have maintained pickets around the hospital system in downtown Huntington since November 3.The strike is one of two taking place in the city. Only a few miles away, 450 workers at the nickel alloy plant Special Metals continue to picket nearly two months after voting down a concessions contract that would have jacked up health premiums, cut pay and eroded job protections.These strikes are part of a larger movement of workers coming into struggles against their employers two years into the COVID-19 pandemic. Across the US and internationally, health care and manufacturing workers have been pushed to the brink by unsafe working conditions, short staffing and overtime. Corporations have reaped record profits by deliberately endangering workers and demanded ever higher production levels in the name of “reopening the economy.”In West Virginia, COVID rates continue to increase, officially jumping by nearly a thousand between November 14 and Saturday, November 20. According to the state’s Department of Health and Human Resources, intensive care admissions continue to rise, and the daily positive test rate stands at over 10 percent. With the lowest percentage of vaccinated adults of any state in the US, the real numbers are undoubtedly far higher.Meanwhile, the opioid crisis continues to ravage the state. New data from the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) show a 29 percent increase in overdose deaths during the first year of the pandemic, with a concentrated epicenter in West Virginia. Even with incomplete data, the CDC report shows a 62.2 percent increase in fatal overdoses in the state between 2020 and 2021.The “ground zero” of the opioid epidemic has long been centered in Huntington—making the jobs of health care workers both dangerous and vital. The dual impact of the COVID pandemic and the drug crisis has placed heavy demands on medical workers, especially at CHH.Striking workers are now being openly attacked and vilified by the hospital administration. Last week, CHH was granted a temporary restraining order against picketers who were accused of upsetting a “healing environment” with their burn barrels and honks of support from the community. Striking workers were ordered not to play music, use bullhorns, or picket within 15 feet of the emergency room entrance. The administration has also accused workers of making threats against scab workers.
Deere reports blowout earnings one week after UAW sellout of strike --Deere & Company reported record profits of nearly $6 billion for its 2021 fiscal year on Wednesday, significantly exceeding financial analysts’ earlier earnings and revenue estimates. The results come just one week after the United Auto Workers shut down and betrayed a five-week-long strike by 10,000 workers, with union officials using lies and threats to force through a contract almost identical to the one the strikers had already rejected. Among the key figures released in the earnings report:
- Net sales and revenue rose to $44 billion for the 12 months ending October 31, up 24 percent from the year prior.
- Profits more than doubled from 2020, reaching $5.963 billion, the largest in the company’s history and almost 70 percent higher than the previous record of $3.5 billion set in 2013.
- More than $3.5 billion was spent in dividends and stock repurchases, also more than double the amount expended in 2020, further enriching the super-wealthy investors and giant financial institutions which predominantly own Deere’s stock.
- The company is projecting that profits for 2022 will again break records, reaching somewhere between $6.5-7.0 billion, despite continued supply chain disruptions and labor shortages. “Looking ahead, we expect demand for farm and construction equipment to continue benefiting from positive fundamentals, including favorable crop prices, economic growth, and increased investment in infrastructure,” Deere CEO John May said in a press release.
New York governor declares a state of emergency in anticipation of new coronavirus surge. -As global concern rose on Friday about a new coronavirus variant, Gov. Kathy Hochul declared a state of emergency in New York, giving her the power to order hospitals to limit nonessential procedures to boost capacity in facilities.The new variant, called Omicron, has officially been named a “variant of concern” by the World Health Organization. The designation means that the variant has mutations that might make it more contagious or more virulent, or make vaccines and other preventive measures less effective — though none of those effects has yet been established. The new measures in New York — which saw thousands of deaths from Covid-19 in 2020 — will take effect on Dec. 3, and are a far cry from the strict, society-wide restrictions which accompanied the early stages of the pandemic.
Republicans sue over Covid-19 requirements at Washington State’s Capitol. - Some Republican state lawmakers in Washington State are suing Democratic leaders in the Legislature over a rule barring unvaccinated people from entering the statehouse.Since October, the Washington State House of Representatives has not allowed representatives and constituents that have not been vaccinated against the coronavirus into the Capitol building based on a set of interim operation rules.But last week, Bernard Dean, the chief clerk of the House of Representatives, emailed the members of the State Legislature to say that the rules would become permanent for the 2022 legislative session, with some added requirements.The new rules say representatives who do not verify their vaccination status must get tested for Covid-19 three times a week in order to work in their on-campus offices. The plan also requires members of the public to show proof of vaccination or a negative coronavirus test taken within 72 hours in order to sit in the House gallery that overlooks the lawmakers as they work.Gov. Jay Inslee’s vaccination proclamation, which went into effect in October, did not require elected officials to get the vaccine, but it did recommend that governmental bodies adopt their own vaccine requirements.The lawsuit was filed Monday in Thurston County Superior Court by six G.O.P. representatives — Jim Walsh, Robert Sutherland, Jenny Graham, Rob Chase, Bob McCaslin and Jesse Young — and citizens from their districts.It called the Legislature’s ban on the unvaccinated “an underhanded method used by a few tyrannical members to impose Governor Inslee’s mandate on a legislative body specifically exempt from the mandate,” the lawsuit filed on Monday read. The speaker of the house, Laurie Jinkins, a Democrat, dismissedthe lawsuit as a meritless political grandstanding in a statement on Tuesday.
Opponent of COVID-19 vaccine mandate arrested for bombing at Stellantis Windsor Assembly Plant - Windsor, Ontario police arrested 33-year-old James Harris last week in connection with the November 4 bombing at the city’s Stellantis auto assembly plant. Harris has been charged with planting and exploding a crude home-made explosive device inside an isolated storage area at the plant.Workers on the November 4 afternoon shift immediately evacuated the premises. No one was injured in the explosion. Stellantis ordered production to re-start the following morning.Harris was a custodian at the Windsor facility for the past five years. He was an employee of a third-party contractor to Stellantis and a member of Unifor Local 195. The local organizes auto parts workers and various other third-party employees in the parts and assembly industries in the Windsor area. Harris was suspended from his job several days after the explosion. The official charges against him include explosion with disregard for human life and intending to cause an explosion likely to cause harm or death or serious damage to property.
Homicide Rates in 2020 Surged to a 24-Year High. It's Another Sign of a Failing Regime. - By mid 2020, it was already becoming clear that the United States was experiencing a spike in crime. Indeed, by midyear, numerous media outlets were already reporting remarkably large increases in homicide in a number of cities. It was clear that if then current trends continued, homicide rates in the United States would reach levels not seen in over a decade. With full-year data for 2020 now available on the FBI’s Crime in the United States report, we can see that those predictions were right. According to the report, the homicide rate in the United States rose to 6.5 per 100,000 in 2020, which is the highest rate reported since 1997—a twenty-four-year high. Moreover the increase from 2019 to 2020 was one of the largest increases the US has experienced in ninety years. For similar increases in a similarly short period of time, we must go back to the 1960s—or even the 1940s. In other words, this is not normal. If the current trend continues, the US could find itself back experiencing homicide growth not experienced since the late 1960s and early 1970s. It remains to be seen, however, if this is a temporary spike or part of a longer trend. If it is a spike, we can expect homicide rates to fall back to around 5 per 100,000, as had become a common experience over the past decade. If it is just a spike, then we can blame the surge in homicide on short-term events such as the covid lockdowns or the Black Lives Matter riots. If the surge is part of a larger trend, however, we’ll need to look to more broad and permanent causes for a satisfactory explanation. But finding the causes of larger trends in homicide rates is no simple matter, and ideological groups tend to use movements in homicide rates as "proof" of the correctness of their preferred political hobby horses. There is compelling evidence, however, that trends in crime are driven largely by how the public views the legitimacy of the regime and its institutions. In short, the theory rests on the idea that crime increases when a jurisdiction's residents do not respect government institutions and do not believe that government institutions can provide safety or administer justice in a fairly reliable way. If the United States is indeed at the beginning of an upward trend in homicide, it might be more evidence of what many already suspect is happening: trust in American political institutions is falling, and consequently fear of private crime and social disorder is rising.
Ohio introduces first responder wellness program- A new division within the Ohio Department of Public Safety’s Office of Criminal Justice Services will focus on the wellbeing of Ohio’s first responders. The new Office of First Responder Wellness will work to encourage self-care and mental wellness for Ohio’s first responder community including law enforcement, fire, emergency medical services, dispatch, corrections and Ohio-based military personnel. The office will provide specialized support and training to help emergency response agencies proactively address post-traumatic stress and other traumas caused by factors that are unique to first responder careers. According toBlue H.E.L.P., more than 940 first responders nationwide have taken their own lives over the last five years, with the majority of those deaths involving law enforcement officers. According to theNational Alliance on Mental Illness, more officers die by suicide than in the line of duty, and compared to the general population, law enforcement officers report much higher rates of depression, PTSD, burnout and other anxiety-related mental health conditions. Research also shows that stress from a career in law enforcement causes higher rates of secondary trauma such as heart diseases, divorce, alcoholism and other psychological illnesses.Reynolds Middle School is shutting down in-person learning for 3 weeks to address student fights, misbehavior - Reynolds Middle School is canceling in-person learning for approximately three weeks beginning Thursday and instead will hold classes remotely in order to develop “safety protocols” and “social-emotional supports” to address student fights and inappropriate behavior. Parents learned of the in-person closure on Monday via a short, three-sentence email from the Reynolds School District. At 4:30 p.m. Tuesday, Superintendent Danna Diaz followed up with another email explaining that the COVID-19 pandemic and more than 1 ½ years of disruptions “have taken a toll on the well-being of our students and staff.” “The safety and security of our students, families, and staff is our highest priority,” Diaz said in her email. The Reynold School District’s decision to shut down classrooms for such an extended period because of student behavior appears to be exceptionally rare. But the pandemic-related problem it faces might not be. Earlier this month, parents in Northeast Portland stood outside Roseway Heights Middle School holding signs pleading for more security and resources after a streak of serious fights among students. Like schools across the state, the 9,000-student Reynolds district east of Portland shuttered all of its schools in March 2020, but then reopened them to hybrid learning in spring 2021 following Gov. Kate Brown’s direction. This fall, the district returned to full-time in-person learning, but that has been marred by student and staff COVID-19 cases and quarantines. The school, in Fairview, is one of three middle schools in the district. It serves students from parts of Gresham, Fairview and Wood Village. “We are finding that some students are struggling with the socialization skills necessary for in-person learning, which is causing disruption in school for other students,” Diaz said in her Tuesday email. When asked for more detail, district spokesperson Steve Padilla confirmed that fights and other behavioral problems prompted the district to shutdown in-person learning temporarily from Thursday through Dec. 9, with each grade level returning for one day of in-person learning in that last week before a schoolwide in-person restart on Dec. 10. Padilla couldn’t immediately provide more details about the number and frequency of fights or the circumstances in which they were occurring. He said to his knowledge, no weapons were involved. “It’s not just fighting,” Padilla said. “It’s disruptive behaviors as well -- students are disrupting other students, making it hard for them to learn.” He added that the district is acting swiftly because it doesn’t want to wait for the next incident to occur. “We need to take care of this now,” Padilla said. “It’s urgent.”
2 New Mexico school districts close down, citing COVID surge (AP) — At least two New Mexico school districts are sending all of their students home early this week because of a coronavirus infection surge.Santa Fe Public Schools says students will go to remote learning starting Tuesday. That represents the largest closure of K-12 schools since the spring.The smaller Los Lunas school district outside Albuquerque has closed to in-person learning on Monday and Tuesday ahead of the Thanksgiving break. While some schools had to close their doors in the past because of virus outbreaks, remote learning for an entire school district has been rare this semester. Online school comes at a cost, including parental child care struggles.
891 infected across 140 new coronavirus outbreaks at Michigan schools - Michigan identified 140 new COVID-19 outbreaks linked to schools last week, which was 61% more than the previous week, according to the state’s weekly school outbreaks report for Monday, Nov. 22. Those coronavirus outbreaks resulted in the infection of at least 891 students and staff, which brought the state’s total known infections from active school-linked outbreaks to 7,963 individuals. Ongoing outbreaks include clusters that have had at least one additional case in the past 28 days.An outbreak is defined by the state health department as three or more cases with a link by place and time indicating a shared exposure outside of a household. Before Sept. 27, the state used a minimum threshold of two people to indicate an outbreak, but officials made the change “in order to promote consistent reporting among states.” Michigan updates its online school-outbreaks report once per week, typically on Monday afternoons. The health department also provides a weekly breakdown of outbreaks by setting type.Schools continue to be the most common setting for reported COVID-19 outbreaks. Less than 50% of students are vaccinated, and only 222 school districts have a mask policy, compared to 311 districts that do not. Among the 140 new school outbreaks, 24 involved 10 or more students and staff. The largest new outbreaks were at:
- Renaissance High School in Detroit, where 44 students were infected;
- Cass Technical High School in Detroit, where 38 students and staff were infected;
- Houghton Portage Township Schools in Houghton, where 24 students and staff were infected;
- Wylie Elementary School in Dexter, where 22 students and staff were infected;
Massive school Covid outbreaks occurred at Seattle-area schools with lax protocols --Huge outbreaks at Cedar Park Christian School in Bothell and Renton Christian School account for the majority of Covid cases in confirmed outbreaks at K-12 schools in King County this fall. There have been 29 confirmed Covid outbreaks at K-12 public and private schools in King County since September. Most of these were small outbreaks, with no more than four confirmed cases, but others were massive, with 80 or more people infected at two separate Christian school campuses outside Seattle. Unvaccinated staff and students were hit hardest in the major outbreaks. The state approached two of those schools for not enforcing the mask mandate. There have been few confirmed coronavirus outbreaks in schools overall, which to public health officials suggests that in-school mitigation is working. They credit universal masking, vaccination, illness screening, and improved ventilation and filtration among the successful prevention steps most schools have taken. One of this fall's big outbreaks occurred at Renton Christian School, with at least 82 people getting Covid during an outbreak that began in September, according to Public Health. At the Cedar Park Christian School campus in Bothell, 80 or more in the secondary school were infected, with another 30 positive cases in the elementary school, the county data shows. Those outbreaks also began in September. In all three outbreaks, nearly all of those infected were students.
San Francisco schools face $125 million budget deficit and over 400 layoffs this year - On November 2, San Francisco Unified School District (SFUSD) announced a $125 million budget deficit for fiscal year 2021-2022. The district, which serves 54,000 students, has been losing students amid the growing social crisis from the COVID-19 pandemic and now faces a 10 percent budget shortfall. An additional deficit of $21.6 million is anticipated for the following fiscal year. SFUSD is planning to cut 360 school jobs and 55 central office jobs. Board of Education members who have vehemently pushed racialist attacks on public art and school names have now meekly bowed down before this assault on education. United Educators of San Francisco (UESF), the union which represents roughly 6,200 teachers, remained silent on the issue until November 12 as rank-and-file members became increasingly restive. The State of California as a whole is staring in the face of education disaster. Minimal federal support in the first two years of the pandemic has barely constituted a band-aid for longstanding budget shortfalls and will entirely evaporate by the 2023-2024 school year. Declining student enrollment and attendance due to the growing social crisis are further suppressing school budgets. The top 10 districts with the greatest loss of attendance are the largest school districts in the state. The drop is blamed on an aging population, but the fundamental issues are surging housing prices, pupils pulled from schools due to legitimate fears over COVID-19, and charter school growth. West Contra Costa Unified School District in the Bay Area foresees a $30 million deficit, Sacramento City Unified School District anticipates an $18 million shortfall, and Los Angeles Unified School District faces a 20 percent drop in enrollment. The funding crisis is so severe that consultants are offering districts a “Planning for Reductions in Force” webinar to be held in January.
Freeing Former Students of Loan Debt, a Conversation - Alan Collinge at Student Loan Justice Organization. Alan has collected 1,065,931 signatures on his petition asking President Joe Biden to cancel student loan debt. His new goal is to reach 1.5 million signatures. If you believe in the cause you should sign his petition. Petition · President Biden: Cancel Federal Student Loans, and Return Bankruptcy Rights to the Rest. · Change.org I have known Alan Collinge for well over a decade. Angry Bear has always featured his words on student loans. Canceling student loan debt should not be so arduous. In support of the previous comment, I am making some rather broad assumptions believing they are mostly true. Repeatedly, I am reading comments about student loans being far larger than the original principal. In was a while back when I put forth a broad-based “assumption” of interest, penalties, consolidation fees, and interest on top of interest having surpassed the original principal of the loans. Much of this is strictly based on observation and commentary of student loan holders who have experienced their loans increasing and doubling due the factors and penalties I have mentioned. The recent cancellation of some Student Loans for people who worked in public positions has resulted in $13 billion (shown in green), a small part of the $1.55 trillion in student loan debt. Meanwhile interest on student loans on the balance is accruing at approximately 6% with older borrowers paying higher interest rates (8%). Correct me if my math is wrong . . . the yearly interest would equal $60 Billion on $1 trillion or in this case ~$95 billion annually.Student loans are the gift that keeps on giving, if paid. Another chart used by Alan Collinge breaks Student Loan Debt by Age bracket. Roughly two thirds of the debt (~$951 billion) is being held by those 35 and older. Thirty-six percent ($349 billion) is being held by those over fifty years of age. The chances of those over 50 and going into retirement dwindles with each year passing. The total dollar amount held by those 62 and older has not dwindled much.Indeed, many of holders of these loans will have a portion of their Social Security disposable income attached by the Federal Government to continue paying student loans. And again, If there were penalties, consolidation and recasting fees, interest in forbearance and interest on top of these additional costs; more than likely it has equaled the principal of the loan or a significant amount of it. At this point, it makes little sense to chase loan holders to the grave.
New research links social media use to depression in older adults -A new study has linked social media use with symptoms of depression among older adults, joining other research showing increased mental health issues among younger adults and adolescents using social media.The study, published on Tuesday in the journal JAMA Network Open, surveyed 5,395 adults with a mean age of 56 between May 2020 and May 2021. The researchers asked respondents to fill out a mental health questionnaire and report what social media sites they use: Snapchat, LinkedIn, TikTok, Facebook, Twitter, Pinterest, Instagram or Youtube.After adjusting for other factors, including participants' living situations, the pandemic and news consumption, researchers found that social media's effects on mental health "are not limited to young adults."The study also showed that Snapchat, Facebook and TikTok were most frequently associated with reports of increased depressive symptoms in adults.The research does not directly prove social media causes depression among adults because of some limitations, including an inability to measure the nature of social media use among survey respondents. People already vulnerable to depression may also be more likely to log on to social media. The researchers said their data means more research on the topic needs to be completed.The study adds to a growing list of research showing that increased anxiety and depressive symptoms are common among those who frequently use social media, particularly children. An article published last year through the National Institutes of Health found that social media is "aggravating mental health problems" and called for further research into the issue.Nearly 1 in 5 U.S. adults live with a mental illness, according to the National Institute of Mental Health, representing 20 percent of the adult population.
Massachusetts governor orders some hospitals to delay nonessential procedures - Massachusetts Gov. Charlie Baker (R) signed an emergency declaration on Tuesday ordering some hospitals to delay nonessential procedures due to staffing shortages. The governor, along with the Massachusetts Department of Public Health, said hospitals that do not have the capacity or staff for patients will have to delay nonessential procedures. The guidance was also made in coordination with the Massachusetts Health & Hospital Association. The order, effective Nov. 29, sees nonessential, nonurgent scheduled procedures as procedures that aren’t medical emergencies that were scheduled in advance. The order was spurred by staffing shortages, which caused the loss of 500 medical/surgical and ICU hospital beds. “The current strain on hospital capacity is due to longer than average hospital stays and significant workforce shortages, separate and apart from the challenges brought on by COVID,” Secretary of Health and Human Services Marylou Sudders said. “COVID hospitalizations in Massachusetts remain lower than almost every other state in the nation, but the challenges the healthcare system face remain, and this order will ensure hospitals can serve all residents, including those who require treatment for COVID-19,” Sudders added. The emergency order is in effect until Sudders or Baker ends it.
Long Island emergency room closes due to nurse shortage -- A Long Island emergency room on Monday announced its temporary closure due to a reported nursing shortage.According to a local Fox News affiliate station, Mount Sinai's Long Beach Emergency Department made the announcement stating that many of its healthcare workers who were working on a temporary religious exemption were suspended on Monday after failing to get vaccinated against COVID-19.Officials noted that the decision to close the healthcare facility ultimately came after all other options were exhausted, the news outlet reported.The City of Long Beach shared a notice on Facebook on Monday, detailing that the closure could last up to a month."This is completely unacceptable, especially as we move into the holiday season. The administration is working with all parties to come up with a solution that results in the Emergency Room remaining open," the post stated."In the interim, the administration, our Police, and Fire Departments will do all they can to ensure our residents remain safe and can be efficiently transported to medical care should the need arise," it added.The hospital is reportedly in the process of recruiting more staff members who are vaccinated against the coronavirus.
Private equity ownership of nursing homes linked to lower quality of care, higher Medicare costs Nursing homes acquired by private equity companies saw an increase in emergency room visits and hospitalizations among long-stay residents and an uptick in Medicare costs, according to a new study from Weill Cornell Medicine investigators. The findings, published Nov. 19 in JAMA Health Forum, suggest that quality of care declined when private equity firms took over the facilities. “Our findings indicate that private equity firm-owned facilities offer lower quality long-term care,” said Dr. Mark Unruh, an associate professor of population health science at Weill Cornell Medicine. “These residents are among the most vulnerable in our health care system and a lack of transparency in ownership makes it difficult to identify facilities with private equity ownership, which consumers may be interested in knowing.”Private equity investment in nursing homes has soared in recent years, as part of $750 billion in health care deals between 2010 and 2019. An estimated 5 percent of nursing homes in the United States are owned by private equity firms, according to the research team, The pressure to generate high, short-term profits could lead private equity-owned nursing homes to reduce staffing, services, supplies or equipment, which may have an adverse association with quality of care, Dr. Unruh said, adding that such firms seek annual returns of 20 percent or more.
How the Pandemic Helped Spread Fentanyl Across the US and Drive Opioid Overdose Deaths to a Grim New High - For the past 20 years, I have been engaged in efforts to end the opioid epidemic, as a public health official, researcher and clinician. And for every one of those years I have looked on as the number of deaths from drug overdoses has set a new record high. Yet even knowing that trend I was surprised by the latest tally from the CDC showing that for the first time ever, the number of Americans who fatally overdosed over the course of a year surpassed 100,000. In a 12-month period ending at the end of April 2021, some 100,306 died in the U.S., up 28.5% over the same period a year earlier. The soaring death toll has been fueled by a much more dangerous black market opioid supply. Illicitly synthesized fentanyl – a potent and inexpensive opioid that has driven the rise in overdoses since it emerged in 2014 – is increasingly replacing heroin. Fentanyl and fentanyl analogs were responsible for almost two-thirds of the overdose deaths recorded in the 12 months period ending in April 2021.It is especially tragic that these deaths are mainly occurring in people with a disease – opioid addiction – that is both preventable and treatable. Most heroin users want to avoid fentanyl. But increasingly, the heroin they seek is mixed with fentanyl or what they purchase is just fentanyl without any heroin in the mix.While the spread of fentanyl is the primary cause of the spike in overdose deaths, the coronavirus pandemic also made the crisis worse.The geographical distribution of opioid deaths makes it clear that there has been a change during the pandemic months.Before the COVID-19 health crisis, the skyrocketing increase in fentanyl-related overdose deaths in America was mainly affecting the eastern half of the U.S., and hit especially hard in urban areas like Washington, D.C., Baltimore, Philadelphia and New York City. A possible reason behind this was that in the eastern half of the U.S., heroin has mainly been available in powder form rather than the black tar heroin more common in the West. It is easier to mix fentanyl with powdered heroin.COVID-19 resulted in less cross-national traffic, which made it harder to smuggle illegal drugs across borders. Border restrictions make it harder to move bulkier drugs, resulting in smugglers’ increased reliance on fentanyl – which is more potent and easier to transport in small quantities and as pills, making it easier to traffic by mail. This may have helped fentanyl spread to areas that escaped the earlier surge in fentanyl deaths.Opioid-addicted individuals seeking prescription opioids instead of heroin have also been affected, because counterfeit pills made with fentanyl have become more common. This may explain why public health officials in Seattle and elsewhere are reporting many fatalities resulting from use of counterfeit pills.Another factor that may have contributed to the soaring death toll is that the pandemic made itharder for those dependent on opioids to get in-person treatment.
Charges dismissed against former top officials at veterans facility where dozens died from COVID-19 -A Massachusetts judge on Monday dismissed criminal neglect charges made against two officials who were in charge of a veterans care facility where dozens died of COVID-19. As The Boston Globe reported,, Holyoke Soldiers' Home Superintendent Bennett Walsh and former Medical Director David Clinton were indicted on multiple criminal neglect charges in September 2020. Massachusetts Attorney General Maura Healey said she sought criminal indictments due to the "worst decision" the facility made: combining two dementia units due to staffing shortages. Dozens of patients died from COVID-19 at the Holyoke Soldiers' Home last year, prompting federal investigators to probe whether residents had received proper medical attention, leading to the indictments against Walsh and Clinton that focused on their alleged neglect and abuse of five specific veterans. However, Hampden Superior Court Judge Edward McDonough Jr. dismissed the 10 counts against the two facility officials, according to the Globe, citing insufficient evidence. “There is insufficient reasonably trustworthy evidence that, had these two dementia units not been merged, the medical condition of any of these five veterans would have been materially different,” the judge wrote in his decision. . “Therefore, because the evidence does not support a finding of probable cause to believe Mr. Walsh or Mr. Clinton committed any crime, I must dismiss the indictments against both” he added. Jillian Fennimore, a spokesperson for Healey's office, told the Globe that an appeal of McDonough's decision was being considered.
Atrial fibrillation significantly increases a person’s risk of serious complications and death from COVID-19 - A new study from researchers at Intermountain Healthcare in Salt Lake City finds that patients with atrial fibrillation, the most common type of heart arrhythmia in adults, are at significantly higher risk to experience serious complications from COVID-19 illness. The study found that patients with a history of atrial fibrillation who have COVID-19 illness are not only more likely to need hospitalization, ICU and ventilator support, but nearly 62% more likely to suffer a major cardiovascular event, such as a heart failure hospitalization, and 40% more likely to die than individuals who don’t have a history of atrial fibrillation. “We often think of atrial fibrillation as more of a nuisance arrhythmia that can cause unpleasant symptoms and some negative clinical impacts, but is generally not life-threatening,”. “However, the findings of our study suggest that patients with atrial fibrillation are at higher risk than the general population for serious complications from COVID-19 illness.”Atrial fibrillation, which affects more than 12 million Americans, is an irregular and often very rapid heart rhythm abnormality involving the upper chambers of the heart. Common symptoms of atrial fibrillation include palpitations, shortness of breath, and weakness. Having atrial fibrillation increases a person’s risk of stroke, heart failure, and other heart-related complications.Findings from the study by Dr. Cutler and his colleagues were presented this week at the American Heart Association’s 2021 Scientific Sessions.
Common gene variants linked to sepsis and COVID-19 severity in African Americans – Two genetic risk variants that are carried by nearly 40 percent of Black individuals may exacerbate the severity of both sepsis and COVID-19, a team of researchers from the University of Pennsylvania’s Perelman School of Medicine have found. The findings, published in Immunity, identify two potential pathways to reduce the health disparities driven by these gene mutations.“Our findings indicate that the APOL1 risk variants could explain an important racial disparity observed in sepsis incidence and severity among Black individuals. Furthermore, our work implies that the identification of subjects with the high-risk APOL1 genotype might be important for disease risk prediction and early intervention,” said the study’s lead author, Each year, at least 1.7 million adults in the United States develop a sepsis infection, resulting in nearly 270,000 deaths. In the U.S., patients of African ancestry have a 67 percent higher severe sepsis hospitalization rate and 20 percent increased likelihood of dying from the condition compared to white individuals, even after adjusting for co-variates. Similarly, COVID-19 disproportionately affects African Americans, with higher infection rates and more severe disease. Two variants of the gene APOL1 — G1 and G2 — are found almost exclusively in people of West African descent. Carrying one risk allele imparts resistance against African sleeping sickness, while having two risk alleles significantly increases the risk of developing chronic kidney disease, as well as HIV and COVID- induced glomerular disease, which has been recently studied by the Susztak lab. The researchers assessed the association of the APOL1 risk variants with sepsis incidence in 57,000 Black participants, finding that there was a statistically significant correlation between the gene variants and sepsis incidence in this population.
Air filter significantly reduces presence of airborne SARS-CoV-2 in COVID-19 wards - When a team of doctors, scientists and engineers at Addenbrooke’s Hospital and the University of Cambridge placed an air filtration machine in COVID-19 wards, they found that it removed almost all traces of airborne SARS-CoV-2.While the discovery could have implications for improving the safety of repurposed ‘surge wards’, the researchers say it also opens up the possibility of being able to set standards for cleaner air to reduce the risk of airborne transmission of infections. Over the duration of the pandemic there has been a steady rise in the evidence that the SARS-CoV-2 virus can be transmitted through the air in small droplets (aerosols). But as hospitals have seen their capacity overwhelmed, they have been forced to manage many of their COVID-19 patients in repurposed ‘surge’ wards, which often lack the ability to change the air with a high frequency. While the use of appropriate personal protective equipment (PPE) protects staff and patients significantly reduces the risk of transmission, there are still reports of patient-to-healthcare worker transmission of the virus, potentially through the inhalation of viral particles.
COVID-19 vaccine elicits weak antibody response in people taking immunosuppressant - People who received two doses of the Pfizer COVID-19 vaccine while on TNF inhibitors — a class of immunosuppressants used to treat rheumatoid arthritis and other autoimmune conditions — generated less powerful and shorter-lived antibodies against the virus that causes COVID-19 than healthy people and those on other kinds of immunosuppressants, according to a study by researchers at Washington University School of Medicine in St. Louis. The scientists found this was especially apparent regarding the virus’s delta variant.The good news is that a third vaccine dose drove antibody levels back up, but the researchers don’t yet know how long the levels will stay high. The findings, available online in Med, a Cell Press journal, suggest that people taking TNF inhibitors face a particularly high risk of breakthrough infections and would benefit most from a third dose.TNF inhibitors are used to treat autoimmune conditions such as rheumatoid arthritis, psoriasis and inflammatory bowel disease. The class includes medications such as etanercept (Enbrel), infliximab (Remicade), adalimumab (Humira), certolizumab pegol (Cimzia), and golimumab (Simponi). “Not all antibodies are equally good at fighting viruses,” said senior author Michael S. Diamond, MD, PhD, the Herbert S. Gasser Professor of Medicine and a professor of molecular microbiology and of pathology & immunology. “People taking TNF inhibitors didn’t make as many of the potently inhibitory antibodies, and the ones that they did make had largely decayed by five months after the second dose. So even when compared to other immunosuppressed people, people on TNF inhibitors are probably at greater risk for breakthrough infections, especially as immunity wanes and several months have passed since their initial vaccinations. Our data suggests that they should get boosted.”
COVID-19 booster shot helps vast majority of cancer patients —Most cancer patients who had no measurable immune response after being fully vaccinated for COVID-19 were helped by a third vaccine dose, according to a new study by investigators at the Montefiore Einstein Cancer Center (MECC). The findings, published online yesterday in Cancer Cell, also show that a “booster” shot is extremely beneficial for all cancer patients, who face a heightened risk of severe disease and dying from COVID-19, and particularly in people who have a blood cancer.“The speed of recommendations and treatments for COVID-19 has been incredible, but many questions have remained regarding the safety and necessity of booster shots,” said . “Our research now gives data-driven answers about when vaccine protection from COVID-19 wanes for immunocompromised individuals and offers clear guidance about the necessity of vaccination for people with c ancer.”The study involved two groups of patients with cancer. The first was composed of 99 people who were fully vaccinated against COVID-19. They were tested after their initial vaccination for the presence of antiviral antibodies in their blood—the sign of an active immune response that would reduce their risk of severe disease and death from COVID-19. For most patients with detectable antibodies, their antibody levels declined when testing was repeated 4 to 6 months later.The people in the second group, made up of 88 fully vaccinated patients with cancer, were also tested for the presence of antiviral antibodies in their blood. Sixty-four percent of them had detectable antibodies, while the remaining patients (all but one of whom had blood cancer) tested negative for antibodies. All participants—people with and without antibodies—then received a booster dose of a COVID-19 vaccine. Four weeks later, when their blood was again tested, 79.5% (70 out of 88 people) had antibody levels that were higher than before they received their booster shot. Most notably, 56% of cancer patients who previously had no detectable antibodies after standard vaccination now had them after receiving their booster shot.
Limited immune responses three months after Pfizer-BioNTech vaccination among elderly.-In this study, published on the medRxiv* preprint server, the humoral response to SARS-CoV-2 was assessed before and after three months of administration of the BNT162b2 mRNA COVID-19 vaccination (Pfizer-BioNTech). In addition, elders' humoral responses were compared to those of a younger group, and a functional neutralization experiment against the Wuhan-Hu-1 (WH1) virus and the Delta variant was carried out.This prospective observational CoronAVI@S study recruited 98 participants above the age of 65 from three long-term care facilities (LTCF) inthe Northern area of Barcelona (Spain). Plasma samples were derived six months after LTCF outbreaks (September-November 2020) and three months following the completion of the vaccine schedule (April-May 2021). Before the vaccination, elders were divided into infected and uninfected groups based on their polymerase chain reaction (PCR) and serology results. Then, at the beginning of the year 2021, both study groups were vaccinated with the BNT16b2 mRNA vaccine (Pfizer-BioNTech). A subsequent sample was obtained at a median of 2.8 months after vaccination; a second serology test against NP-protein (NP) was conducted in the uninfected individuals.The younger participant group ranged from 22 to 64 years. Pre-vaccine and post-vaccine blood samples were matched between the two groups of patients.. During the LTCF outbreak, individuals were tested using Real-Time PCR (RT-PCR). It was found that 84% of residents included in the study had encountered a previous SARS-CoV-2 infection – the median age of 87 years and 80% females. Residents who remained uninfected prior to vaccination had a median age of 79 years, and 50% were females. In vaccinated uninfected individuals, a progressive decline was detected in the neutralization levels across all ages against the Delta variant similar to those against the original virus (WH1). However, in uninfected vaccinated individuals above 65 years, neutralizing capacity against the Delta variant was barely detectable. Remarkably, in people who had previously been infected with SARS-CoV-2, their neutralization capacities against the Delta variant increased dramatically with age. In comparison to all other groups, the elderly elicited a stronger cross-neutralization of the Delta variant.The findings indicated that only uninfected people who do not acquire adequate immune responses would benefit from a booster vaccine dose. A tailored vaccination calendar is required to meet the immunity needs of this vulnerable population. Significantly, hybrid immunity appears to be active in the elderly and may be helpful in designing vaccination boosting campaigns.
C.D.C. Endorses Covid Vaccine Booster Shots for All Adults - Faced with rising infections and an anticipated surge in holiday travel, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention on Friday endorsed booster shots of the coronavirus vaccines for all Americans over 18. The recommendation fulfills President Biden’s pledge in August to make the extra doses available to all adults, and caps months of scientific debate over whether most people really needed boosters. The shots are already available at many drugstores, doctors’ offices and vaccination centers. The C.D.C. said that Americans over age 50, as well as those 18 and older living in long-term care facilities, “should” get booster shots of the Pfizer-BioNTech or Moderna vaccines. All other adults over age 18 “may” get booster doses, the agency decided. Recipients of Johnson & Johnson’s one-dose vaccine already were cleared to get a booster at least two months after the initial shot. Earlier on Friday, the Food and Drug Administration authorized booster shots for all Americans over age 18. But the C.D.C. usually sets the clinical guidelines adopted by the medical profession. A panel of scientific advisers approved the expansion of eligibility earlier on Friday, and the agency’s director, Dr. Rochelle Walensky, endorsed the recommendation early in the evening. Many experts worried that extra doses were not needed by most adults to prevent serious illness and death, and that a push for boosters could constrain global vaccine supplies even as people in many poor countries have not received their first doses. But infection rates are rising again in the United States and soaring in much of Europe. After recording more than 14,000 new infections on Thursday, Austria will go into a nationwide lockdown on Monday and impose a coronavirus vaccination mandate in February, the first such mandate in a Western democracy. Health officials in many of these countries, and now in the United States, see booster shots as a way of shoring up defenses against a tenacious enemy and gaining the upper hand in the pandemic. France, for example, has mandated booster shots for those over age 65 who wish to get a health pass permitting access to public venues. In the United States, infections have increased by 33 percent on average over the past two weeks, to 94,000 a day. The C.D.C.’s decision landed just as Americans prepare to spend the holidays with family and friends, gatherings likely to accelerate the trend. The shots may help forestall at least some infections, particularly in older adults and those with certain health conditions. But many experts, including some who advise federal agencies, are skeptical that boosters alone can turn the tide. The extra shots are unlikely to offer much benefit to adults under 65, who remain protected from severe illness and hospitalization by the initial immunization, the experts said.
Children at lower risk from COVID, vaccines should go to poor – WHO (Reuters) - As children and adolescents are at lower risk of severe COVID-19 disease, countries should prioritise adults and sharing vaccine doses with the COVAX programme to bring supplies to poorer countries, the World Health Organisation said on Wednesday. Some rare cases of heart inflammation called myocarditis have been reported in younger men who received vaccines based on mRNA technoloy - Pfizer PFE.N BioNtech 22UAy.DE and Moderna MRNA.O - but these were generally mild and responded to treatment, it said. Although that risk had not been fully determined, it was less than the risk of myocarditis linked to SARS-CoV-2 infection, it said. The WHO's interim guidance was issued as more regulatory agencies authorise certain vaccines for use in children, including the United States, China, European Union, India and Israel, and most recently Canada last week. "As children and adolescents tend to have milder disease compared to adults, unless they are in a group at higher risk of severe COVID-19, it is less urgent to vaccinate them than older people, those with chronic health conditions and health workers," the WHO said. Children can experience "long COVID-19" with prolonged symptoms but this was still under investigation, it said. Several risk factors for severe COVID-19 in children have been reported including older age, obesity and pre-existing conditions including type 2 diabetes, asthma and heart disease, it added. Maintaining education for all school-aged children should be an important priority during the pandemic, although transmission mitigation measures might be needed in schools, the WHO said. Given vaccine supply constraints, immunisation programmes should focus on protecting groups at high risk of hospitalisation and death, the WHO said.
Putin says he took experimental nasal COVID-19 vaccine - Russian President Vladimir Putin has taken an experimental nasal COVID-19 vaccine as Russia struggles to contain its latest coronavirus outbreak, he announced to state media on Wednesday. Putin received the experimental Sputnik V nasal vaccine, Russia's domestically produced COVID-19 vaccine.“I sprayed one [nostril] and the other,” Putin said in a televised meeting.In a statement to state run news agency TASS, he described being asked to breathe in, then being given the vaccine in powder form through a syringe.“I sat there for 15 minutes and it was all over. I felt nothing, simply nothing,” he added.The Russian leader said he hadn't experienced any unpleasant effect from the vaccine, according to The Associated Press.“Exactly six months after vaccination my titers of protective [antibodies] have dropped, and specialists recommended the procedure of revaccination, which I did,” he added.He was vaccinated with the first dose Sputnik V in April this year and revealed that he received a booster shot of Sputnik Light, the one-dose version of the vaccine, on Sunday.Putin's experimental vaccine dose comes as Russia struggles with low vaccination rates. According to Our World in Data, roughly 44 percent of Russia's population is at least partially vaccinated against COVID-19, with an estimated 37 percent believed to be fully vaccinated.Putin has previously lambasted the public for vaccine hesitancy.“I can’t understand what’s going on,” Putin said last month. “We have a reliable and efficient vaccine. The vaccine really reduces the risks of illness, grave complications and death."
US 2021 COVID-19 death toll now tops 2020 - More Americans have died of COVID-19 in 2021 than in the first year of the pandemic, according to Johns Hopkins University and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). The figures demonstrate the terrible human cost of the policy of “living with the virus,” pursued by the Biden administration and corporate America, which in reality means allowing hundreds of thousands to die from the virus. US Army Capt. Corrine Brown, a critical care nurse, administers an anti-viral medication to a COVID-19 positive patient at Kootenai Health regional medical center during response operations in Coeur d'Alene, Idaho, on Sept. 6, 2021. [Credit: Michael H. Lehman/DVIDS U.S. Navy/via AP] The figures from the CDC and Johns Hopkins were published by the Wall Street Journal, together with other information the newspaper collected from several health care and insurance company studies. The total number of deaths due to the pandemic hit 770,800 on Saturday, with 385,343 deaths in 2020 now surpassed by 385,457 deaths in 2021—and there are still six weeks remaining in the year. The 2021 figure is particularly disastrous because vaccines have been available throughout the year, first for health care workers and the most vulnerable seniors, then more generally, for all adults and youth aged 12 and over. Most recently, vaccinations have been made available to children aged 5-11. The most recent surge in COVID-19 has been in New England and the Upper Midwest, with the seven-day average for new cases hitting 93,196 on Friday, November 19, up 30 percent in just three weeks from 70,271 on October 25. The upcoming Thanksgiving holidays, filled with travel and family gatherings, will undoubtedly send the daily average rocketing past 100,000. Among the worst-hit states is Michigan, which accounted for one in ten of all new coronavirus cases last week, even though the state has only three percent of the US population. According to the CDC, Michigan has the highest seven-day case rate in the country, 589.3 cases per 100,000, double that of neighboring Ohio. Hospitalizations have jumped 62 percent since November 1, and more than 400 people in Michigan died from COVID-19 last week. The state’s fully vaccinated rate of 54.2 percent trails the US average of 58.9 percent. The state health department has issued an advisory urging everyone aged two years and older to wear a mask indoors except for family members who live under the same roof. This would apply to all Thanksgiving gatherings this coming week. At the same time, the state health director said there were no plans to stop in-person instruction in schools or impose mask mandates.
As COVID cases rise, officials fear a possible holiday surge— Officials in Massachusetts are worried about a possible surge of COVID-19 during the holiday season, after the number of new cases in a single day reached its highest point since February. Health officials reported 3,196 new cases on Thursday. Education officials reported 3,257 new cases among public school students and 558 among staff members for the week that ended Wednesday, a record high for a single week, The Boston Globe reported. A Boston Medical Center epidemiologist, Dr. Cassandra Pierre, told The Globe she’s now more worried about Thanksgiving celebrations because the rise in cases is coming the week before a national holiday where people traditionally gather together with their family indoors. Gov. Charlie Baker’s administration announced Thursday that all adults in Massachusetts are now eligible for COVID-19 vaccine booster shots. In neighboring Rhode Island, Gov. Dan McKee also announced this week that all adults in the state would be eligible for a booster, given the high transmission rate and the approaching holiday season.
COVID-19 cases in children up 32 percent: pediatricians -More than 140,000 children tested positive for COVID-19 last week, according to the American Academy of Pediatrics (AAP), which was a roughly 32 percent increase from two weeks prior.Between Nov. 11 and Nov. 18 a total of 141,905 children tested positive for COVID-19, according to the AAP, making up 25.1 percent of all the cases reported that week. The number of pediatric COVID-19 cases that week was an approximate 32 percent increase from the seven-day period that ended Nov. 4. That week, roughly 107,000 children had tested positive for the virus,according to the AAP. The seven-day period ending on Nov. 18 marked the 15th consecutive week that more than 100,000 children tested positive for COVID-19, the AAP noted.Since the beginning of the pandemic, nearly 6.8 million children have tested positive for the coronavirus, which accounts for 16.9 percent of all cases reported since the virus first entered the U.S.The recorded spike in pediatric COVID-19 cases comes as the U.S. is beginning to roll out vaccines for children ages 5 to 11, after Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) Director Rochelle Walensky earlier this month signed off on a recommendation from agency advisers endorsing the Pfizer-BioNTech shots for children in that age range.The White House announced last week that roughly 10 percent of children ages 5 to 11 will have received their first COVID-19 vaccine shot within two weeks of becoming eligible. Cumulatively, around 8,300 American children in that age range had been hospitalized with COVID-19 as of the end of October, according to CDC data cited by The New York Times, and at least 172 had died.
Child infections fuel COVID-19 surge across the US -On Monday, the American Academy of Pediatrics (AAP) released its latest weekly report on child COVID-19 infections, hospitalizations and deaths in the United States. The data is hampered by the deliberate efforts of state and federal authorities to cover up the spread of the pandemic, but nevertheless it presents damning evidence of the impact of the full reopening of schools this fall. The AAP report found that for the week ending November 18, another 141,905 children were officially infected with COVID-19, the 15th straight week of over 100,000 official new cases. After reaching a trough of 100,630 new cases for the week ending October 28, this figure surged by 41 percent in just three weeks. The region with the greatest increase in child infections was the Midwest, where nearly 60,000 children were infected last week, a roughly 40 percent increase from the week prior. Children accounted for 25.1 percent of all COVID-19 infections last week, making clear that the reopening of schools continues to fuel the broader surge of the pandemic across the country. The spread of the Delta variant since the end of summer has coincided with the reopening of schools, with roughly 13.5 million Americans officially infected with COVID-19 and 164,291 killed by the virus since schools began to fully reopen four months ago. Alongside the surge of infections, child hospitalizations are once again on the rise, with just under 1,250 children now hospitalized with COVID-19 in the US. An average of 152 children under 18 are now hospitalized with COVID-19 each day. The AAP report notes that 636 children have now officially died from COVID-19, with 12 children dying last week in Arizona (4), Ohio (2), California (1), Indiana (1), Kansas (1), Minnesota (1), North Dakota (1), and Texas (1). No information on any of these deaths has been made public, with only one article each from local press in Kansas and North Dakota even acknowledging them. The deepening wave of infections, hospitalizations and deaths among children are all the more tragic given that a vaccine has finally been approved for all children above the age of four. On Monday, Pfizer and BioNTech released preliminary data finding that their vaccine remains 100 percent effective against symptomatic infection for children ages 12-15 years old four months after the second dose. Roughly two-thirds of all children ages 5-17 remain unvaccinated in the US, and millions were exposed to the virus just weeks before the approval of the vaccines. . Texas, Alabama, Nebraska and New York (excluding New York City) no longer report child infections. Only 24 states report data on child hospitalizations. Michigan, Montana, New York (excluding New York City), Rhode Island, Utah and West Virginia do not report figures on child deaths from COVID-19. Furthermore, the level of testing conducted in the US is totally inadequate for all age groups, including children. While the official cumulative total of child infections documented by the AAP is roughly 6.8 million, seroprevalence studies conducted by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) estimate that in reality roughly 25.8 million children under 18 have likely been infected with COVID-19 from the start of the pandemic through September 2021, over a third of all children in the US. The long-term social impacts of the pandemic are not quantifiable. Studies on Long COVID among children indicate that millions continue to suffer debilitating symptoms for many weeks after their initial infection, and it remains unknown how long these symptoms will last.
COVID-19 now the leading cause of death in Arizona - A recent study by the Arizona Public Health Association (APHA) determined that COVID-19 is the leading cause of death in the southwestern state, outstripping both heart disease and cancer, the principal cause of fatalities nationwide. The public health nonprofit reported that between mid-March 2020 and mid-October 2021, just short of 21,000 Arizonans succumbed to the coronavirus. By November 19, the number of fatalities had reached 21,808, according to the Arizona Department of Health Services (AZDHS) COVID-19 dashboard. APHA Executive Director Will Humble discussed the findings with KTAR News FM’s Arizona Morning News on November 16, saying, “We are unique.” He enumerated a partial list of reasons for the Grand Canyon State’s illaudable distinction: “The lack of statewide face covering mandates, the lack of using vaccine requirements among state government, universities, communities, etc.” That is only part of the story. Every state government, under Democratic and Republican administrations, to varying degrees has ignored or distorted the science and recent experience, plowing ahead with reckless measures, such as the reopening of schools and workplaces, scrapping of mask mandates and inconsistent vaccination policies, not to mention the out-of-hand rejection of an elimination program. Arizona’s Republican governor, Doug Ducey, has gone above and beyond the call of duty to the ruling class demand for profits over lives. He, Attorney General Mark Brnovich and the state legislature have undermined mask and vaccine mandates through various means, while making bogus references to “individual liberties,” “parental rights,” federalism and the separation of powers and denouncing the “lockdown lobby.” Brnovich filed a lawsuit in September for a restraining order and injunction in US District Court against President Joe Biden’s vaccination orders for federal workers and contractors. The judge ruled against the suit on November 11 but allowed for a refiling on November 19. Brnovich then sent a letter to Ducey calling on him to prevent vaccination mandates, claiming, “Protecting people from government COVID-19 vaccine mandates must be a priority. I am urging the Governor to take immediate steps to help protect Arizona families.” As part of this “protection,” he urged the governor to call a special session of the Arizona Legislature to uphold four budget-related bills that it had passed earlier in the year but which were struck down by a lower court judge.
COVID-19 hospitalizations up almost 50 percent in Michigan in past two weeks -COVID-19 hospitalizations in Michigan have increased by almost 50 percent over the past two weeks, as the Wolverine State faces a surge in infections. Coronavirus hospitalizations in Michigan are up 46 percent over the past two weeks, according to The New York Times, making it the state with the second-highest spike in hospitalizations. The only state ahead of Michigan is New Hampshire, which has seen a 58 percent increase in hospitalizations. Michigan now has the second-highest per capita rate of hospitalizations, just trailing North Dakota, the Times reported. COVID-19 infections in Michigan are up 78 percent over the past two weeks, according to the Times. Michigan’s seven-day average of new reported cases is now higher than it was during the winter 2020 and spring 2021 surge in infections, according to data collected by the Times. On Sunday, the state’s seven-day average was 8,780. State officials are reacting to the spike in numbers by implementing COVID-19 mitigation measuresin an attempt to tamp down on the surge. The Michigan Department of Health and Human Services (MDHHS) issued a new mask advisory on Friday, which requires that anyone older than two years old wear a face covering at indoor gatherings, regardless of their vaccination status. The new guidance comes ahead of the holiday season, when many families will likely gather indoors to celebrate.
An early winter storm of COVID-19 hits Michigan - Michigan is confronting perhaps the worst and most prolonged surge of COVID-19 infections since the beginning of the pandemic. The eighth-largest US state has become the epicenter of the pandemic in America, with the highest per capita infections and hospitalizations, and a death rate that is approaching the worst figures of last winter’s spike. Admissions into Michigan hospitals for COVID-19 have jumped almost 50 percent in the last two weeks, having reached 3,724 as of November 21, 2021, which is 15 percent shy of the numbers of the late April 2021 peaks. Dozens of hospitals are at or near 100 percent occupancy in their ICUs. This is compounded by the growing shortage of qualified staff and an influx of people who are seeking medical attention for issues unrelated to COVID-19 and have delayed treatment too long. Michigan is only the canary in the coal mine for the United States as a whole. The US has endured five previous deadly waves of infection which have taken nearly 800,000 lives and infected 48.6 million people. Both figures are the worst in the world, in a country with the greatest material wealth and the most technically advanced health care capabilities. A sixth wave is now gathering force, under conditions where more Americans have already died this year than in all of 2020. Yesterday, there were more than 120,000 COVID-19 cases and the seven-day moving average of cases has surpassed 90,000, a 29 percent rise from two weeks ago. COVID-19 hospitalizations have risen above 50,000. Deaths continue to decline but remain high at more than 1,100 each day. This is a lagging indicator, reflecting the lows of October. The surge in infections and hospitalizations will inevitably produce another surge in deaths as well. It is hard to adequately describe the conditions in health systems flooded with patients who are coming in gasping for breath and begging for help. The staff in emergency departments and the ICUs have become inundated and paralyzed by the demands to tend to each person while all need immediate attention. Dr. Darryl Elmouchi, the president of Spectrum Health West Michigan, told the New York Times, “We’re all scared to death because this is now so hard to predict what will happen. We’re preparing for the worst.” With 14 hospitals in the state, he explained they were seeing more patients than at any point during the pandemic. Resources are being stretched and ICU capacity is being increased to accommodate the sick who are predominately unvaccinated. These repeated waves are also taking a terrible toll on health care staff. Shortages mean that they are being asked to take on extra shifts indefinitely, which has a significant impact on their morale and attitudes. As one nurse from Kalamazoo, Michigan, noted, “I’ve seen more death in the last 18 months than my [entire] 18 years in nursing.” Another explained, “People feel like they’re in a rut when they’re in the same unit and seeing the same death after death after death. It just gets overwhelming.”
Michigan hospital chiefs plead with public to do its part amid surging hospitalizations -Chief medical officers who oversee community hospitals in Michigan urged the public to do its part to stop the surge of coronavirus infections amid near-record hospitalizations and staff shortages in the state. In a statement posted to the Michigan Health and Hospital Association’s website Monday, chief medical representatives stated that medical facilities have been inundated with COVID-19 patients. As of Nov. 21, the release stated, Michigan has seen 3,785 people hospitalized for COVID-19, including 784 in community hospitals’ intensive care units. The majority of those hospitalized are unvaccinated, the medical officers said. “In addition to these high numbers of COVID-19 patients requiring emergency care and hospitalization, we are seeing high numbers of patients with other medical conditions requiring care,” the statement said. Between the COVID-19 infections and other, non-coronavirus related ailments, officials warn, hospitals are at capacity. “We cannot wait any longer for Michigan to correct course; we need your help now to end this surge and ensure our hospitals can care for everyone who needs it.” News from the Wolverine State comes amid an uptick of coronavirus infections across the nation as breakthrough infections continue and a significant portion of Americans remain unvaccinated. The Midwest, parts of the Northeast, and other areas of the U.S. have all seen increases in cases, according to a heat map from The New York Times. The medical officers stressed in their Monday release that on top of hospitals operating at maximum capacity, Emergency Medical Services were also being pushed to their limit. “There may be times when capacity in the system is not adequate to accommodate the usual response and speed of transport, especially for out-of-area transfers,” the officers said.
A new Covid-19 variant could show immune evasion and enhanced transmissibility, South African scientists warn – CNN - South Africa's health minister announced Thursday the discovery of a new coronavirus variant that appears to be spreading rapidly in parts of the country. "Initially it looked like some cluster outbreaks, but from yesterday, the indication came from our scientists from the Network of Genomic Surveillance that they were observing a new variant," Minister of Health Joe Phaahla said, stressing that it is currently unclear where the variant -- currently dubbed B.1.1.529 -- first emerged. It has so far been detected in South Africa, Botswana and in a traveler to Hong Kong from South Africa, Phaahla added. Reinfection from Covid-19 is rare, severe disease is even rarer, a study of people in Qatar finds Reinfection from Covid-19 is rare, severe disease is even rarer, a study of people in Qatar finds During a news briefing, genomic scientists said the variant has an unusually high number of mutations, with more than 30 in the key spike protein -- the structure the virus uses to get into the cells they attack. Professor Tulio de Oliveira, the director of the Center for Epidemic Response and Innovation, said the variant has "many more mutations than we have expected," adding it is "spreading very fast and we expect to see pressure in the health system in the next few days and weeks." He advised the public to "try to avoid super spreading events." Officials also expressed concern that the mutation could result in immune evasion and enhanced transmissibility of the virus, but added it is too early to tell what kind of impact the mutations will have on vaccine efficacy. More studies also need to be conducted to understand the clinical severity of the variant compared to previous variants, officials said. "The full significance of this variant remains uncertain and the best tool we have is still the vaccines," De Oliveira said. He added that lab studies still need to be carried out to test vaccine and antibody evasion.
Britain says new 19 variant is the most significant yet found (Reuters) - Britain said on Friday that a newly identified coronavirus variant spreading in South Africa was considered by scientists to be the most significant one yet found and so it needed to ascertain whether or not it made vaccines ineffective. Defending a ban on flights from South Africa, Namibia, Botswana, Zimbabwe, Lesotho and Eswatini, Transport Secretary Grant Shapps said that the lesson of COVID was that early action was essential. The UK Health Security Agency said that the variant - called B.1.1.529 - has a spike protein that was dramatically different to the one in the original coronavirus that COVID-19 vaccines are based on. "As scientists have described, (this is) the most significant variant they've encountered to date in their research," Shapps told Sky News. Officials have advised the government on the need to act swiftly and pre-emptively in case the concerns over the impact of the variant are borne out, even though it could take weeks to generate all the information needed about its characteristics. The variant has also been found in Botswana and Hong Kong, but the UK Health Security Agency said that no cases of the variant had been detected in Britain. Euro zone government bond yields drop on 19 variant fears (Reuters) - Euro zone government bond yields dropped sharply across the board on Friday morning as investors piled into safe haven assets amid mounting concerns over a newly identified coronavirus variant spreading in South Africa. Germany's 10-year government bond yield, the benchmark for the bloc, was down 7 bps at -0.32% at the open. Other highly-rated euro zone government bond yields were lower 5-6 bps. U.S. Treasury yields slipped around 10 bps across the curve.
What scientists know about the new variant, B.1.1.529. - Scientists are still unclear on how effective vaccines will be against the new variant flagged by a team in South Africa, which displays mutations that might resist neutralization. Only several dozen cases have been fully identified so far in South Africa, Botswana, Hong Kong and Israel.The new variant, B.1.1.529, has a “very unusual constellation of mutations,” with more than 30 in the spike protein alone, according to Tulio de Oliveira, director of the KwaZulu-Natal Research and Innovation Sequencing Platform.On the ACE2 receptor — the protein that helps to create an entry point for the coronavirus to infect human cells — the new variant has 10 mutations. In comparison, the Beta variant has three and the Delta variant two, Mr. de Oliveira said.The variant shares similarities with the Lambda and Beta variants, which are associated with an innate evasion of immunity, said Richard Lessells, an infectious diseases specialist at the KwaZulu-Natal Research and Innovation Sequencing Platform.“All these things are what give us some concern that this variant might have not just enhanced transmissibility, so spread more efficiently, but might also be able to get around parts of the immune system and the protection we have in our immune system,” Dr. Lessells said.The new variant has largely been detected among young people, the cohort that also has the lowest vaccination rate in South Africa. Just over a quarter of those ages between 18 and 34 in South Africa are vaccinated, said Dr. Joe Phaahla, the country’s minister of health. While cases of the variant are mainly concentrated in the country’s economic hub, particularly in the country’s administrative capital, Pretoria, it is “only a matter of time” before the virus spreads across the country as schools close and families prepare to travel for the holiday season, Dr. Phaahla said.
Probable Vaccine-Escaping Covid Variant Sequenced in Gauteng, South Africa and Spreading Rapidly; Press Underplaying Downside Risk – Yves Smith - Not only is there a lot not to like about the new variant sighted in a cluster of cases in Gaunteng, South Africa, there is also not a lot to like about the handling of information about it. One the one hand, the press in the form of a Guardian story was onto the sequencing of this variant a mere 36 hours after it was posted on GitHub and under discussion there. This evening, the media is giving it considerable coverage, apparently as the result of a press conference in South Africa on Thursday that admitted this variant, B.1.1.529, was widely spread in South Africa after its initial sighting in Gauteng. One would like to see this speedy press reaction as refreshing departure from its prior tendency to not take notice of new variants, even ones ugly-looking enough to merit concern right out of the box. But as you’ll see, it appear more likely to be the result of serious concern at high levels, particularly now that the WHO is convening experts on Friday to determine if this new variant should be designated a “variant of concern.” The account whose level of concern is closest to appropriately registering how bad this variant, quickly designated B.1.1.529 is is the BBC. Even worse, the discussion among experts at GitHub was scrubbed and shut down (I know because I opened up the GitHub page apparently right before it was censored and so can see how it differs from the sanitized version). I am told this is not normal behavior at GitHub. One of the comments that was removed gave concrete reasons why B.1.1.529, just named Nu, looks like a train wreck.1 Is this deleted comment, which we have reproduced in our footnote, the sort of discussion among scientists that the officialdom is trying to hide? This variant has the potential to be DEFCON Level-1 bad. It is so different from current variants that calling it a variant is a misnomer; it is more likely to be another strain and could even be SARS-Cov-3. Unlike the press, the experts on GitHub were discussing the implications in the summary statement, which remains unchanged:
As I asked GM: I assume if it probably escapes monoclonal antibodies, it probably escapes vaccines too. His response: We don’t have direct studies on this variant, but based on the sequence, this is completely resistant to all monoclonals, and there is little doubt about it. So this is a kiss-the-vaccine-goodbye strain, that is correct. My next question: And am I correct in further assuming that its pretty fast emergence suggests it is competing effectively with and potentially out competing current variants? This we do not know yet, but there is a worse possibility — that there will be no competition. This is just so antigenically distinct, that it may just as well circulate as its own separate strain that does not compete directly with Delta because there is no cross-neutralization and thus people infected with one are very soon after susceptible to infection from the other (just as COVID does not protect you from infection with OC43/229E/NL-63/229E and vice versa). Consider yourself fully unvaccinated from now on and go back to March 2020 precautions.
Covid: New variant classed 'of concern' and named Omicron - BBC News -The World Health Organization (WHO) has declared a new coronavirus variant to be "of concern" and named it Omicron. It had a large number of mutations, and early evidence suggested an increased reinfection risk, the WHO said.It was first reported to the WHO from South Africa on 24 November, and has also been identified in Botswana, Belgium, Hong Kong and Israel.A number of countries around the world have now decided to ban or restrict travel to and from southern Africa.Travellers from South Africa, Namibia, Zimbabwe, Botswana, Lesotho and Eswatini will not be able to enter the UK unless they are UK or Irish nationals, or UK residents.US officials said flights from South Africa, Botswana, Zimbabwe, Namibia, Lesotho, Eswatini, Mozambique and Malawi would be blocked, mirroring earlier moves taken by the EU. It will come into effect on Monday.Brazil and Australia also introduced travel restrictions. On Friday, the WHO said the number of cases of this variant, initially named B.1.1.529, appeared to be increasing in almost all of South Africa's provinces. "This variant has a large number of mutations, some of which are concerning,"the UN public health body said in a statement.It said "the first known confirmed B.1.1.529 infection was from a specimen collected on 9 November".The WHO said it would take a few weeks to understand the impact of the new variant, as scientists worked to determine how transmissible it was.A top UK health official warned that vaccines would "almost certainly" be less effective against the new variant. But Professor James Naismith, a structural biologist from the University of Oxford, added: "It is bad news but it's not doomsday."He said mutations in the variant suggested it may spread more quickly - but transmissibility "is not just as simple as 'this amino acid does this'" and was determined by how mutations worked together. Only about 24% of South Africa's population is fully vaccinated, which could spur a rapid spread of cases there, Dr Mike Tildesley, a member of the Scientific Pandemic Influenza Modelling group (Spi-M), told the BBC on Friday.Meanwhile, US infectious disease chief Dr Anthony Fauci said that while the reports on the new variant threw up a "red flag", it was possible that vaccines might still work to prevent serious illness."Until it's properly tested... we don't know whether or not it evades the antibodies that protect you against the virus", Dr Fauci told CNN.
Why WHO chose to skip 'Nu' and 'Xi' and named new COVID-19 variant as Omicron - The emergence of the Omicron variant of COVID-19 has scientists worried, countries imposing travel bans, financial markets crashing and the Internet talking about how the new name was chose. On Friday, the World Health Organisation in their meeting decided to call the new strain — B.1.1.529 — Omicron and deemed it a ‘variant of concern’ owing to a large number of mutations, some of which are concerning. The naming decision quickly went viral on Twitter, with some netizens questioning the method in which the name was chosen and whether the United Nations health agency had done so in order to avoid antagonising China. For the unversed, this is what it means.Typically, the WHO has been naming new virus strains as per the Greek alphabet. This method was chosen by the global health body on 31 May, 2021. The idea was to ensure that variants had easy-to-say and remember labels. The naming system was also designed to avoid geographical stigma being assigned to a COVID-19 variant.Going by the WHO method, the new strain that was first found in South Africa should have been either named ‘Nu’ or ‘Xi’.Internet pundits and politicians speculated that the group skipped Nu to avoid confusion with the word “new”. They also added that Xi was skipped in an effort to avoid antagonising China and its leader Xi Jinping.United States Senator Ted Cruz retweeted a Telegraph editor who cited a WHO source saying Xi was skipped to “avoid stigmatising a region.” “If the WHO is this scared of the Chinese Communist Party, how can they be trusted to call them out next time they’re trying to cover up a catastrophic global pandemic?” Cruz wrote in his tweet, calling out Beijing, which has already come under massive scrutiny over its role in the outbreak of the virus.Epidemiologist Martin Kulldorf, a professor of medicine at Harvard Medical School, too took to Twitter, discussing the naming of the new strain.He suggested that the WHO had jumped the alphabet and named the new variant 'Omicron' in order to avoid the potential situation of ever having to call a coronavirus variant the 'Xi' strain. Other Twitter users also jumped into the discussion, with Jonathan Turley, a professor at George Washington University Law School and a noted attorney, tweeted, “He who must not be named. It appears the WHO has skipped the next Greek letter after Nu to name the new variant. The next letter is Xi. The concern is that WHO is again avoiding any discomfort for the Chinese government. So they named it Omicron...”
Heavily mutated Omicron variant puts scientists on alert - Researchers in South Africa are racing to track the concerning rise of a new variant of the SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus that causes COVID-19. The variant harbours a large number of the mutations found in other variants, including Delta, and it seems to be spreading quickly across South Africa.A top priority is to follow the variant more closely as it spreads: it was first identified in Botswana earlier this month and has since turned up in a traveller arriving in Hong Kong from South Africa. Scientists are also trying to understand the variant’s properties, such as whether it can evade immune responses triggered by vaccines and whether it causes more or less severe disease than other variants do. “There’s a lot we don’t understand about this variant,” “The mutation profile gives us concern, but now we need to do the work to understand the significance of this variant and what it means for the response to the pandemic.” On 26 November, the World Health Organization (WHO) designated the strain, known as B.1.1.529, as a variant of concern and named it Omicron, on the advice of scientists who are part of the WHO’s Technical Advisory Group on SARS-CoV-2 Virus Evolution. Omicron joins Delta, Alpha, Beta and Gamma on the current WHO list of variants of concern. Researchers also want to measure the variant’s potential to spread globally — possibly sparking new waves of infection or exacerbating ongoing rises being driven by Delta. Researchers spotted B.1.1.529 in genome-sequencing data from Botswana. The variant stood out because it contains more than 30 changes to the spike protein — the SARS-CoV-2 protein that recognizes host cells and is the main target of the body’s immune responses. Many of the changes have been found in variants such as Delta and Alpha, and are linked to heightened infectivity and the ability to evade infection-blocking antibodies. The apparent sharp rise in cases of the variant in South Africa’s Gauteng province — home to Johannesburg — is also setting off alarm bells. Cases increased rapidly in the province in November, particularly in schools and among young people, according to Lessells. Genome sequencing and other genetic analysis from a team led by Tulio de Oliveira, a bioinformatician at the University of KwaZulu-Natal, found that the B.1.1.529 variant was responsible for all 77 of the virus samples they analysed from Gauteng, collected between 12 and 20 November. Analysis of hundreds more samples are in the works. “A burning question is ‘does it reduce vaccine effectiveness, because it has so many changes?’,” says Aris Katzourakis, who studies virus evolution at the University of Oxford, UK. Moore says breakthrough infections have been reported in South Africa among people who have received any of the three kinds of vaccines in use there, from Johnson & Johnson, Pfizer–BioNTech and Oxford–AstraZeneca. Two quarantined travellers in Hong Kong who have tested positive for the variant were vaccinated with the Pfizer jab, according to news reports. One individual had travelled from South Africa; the other was infected during hotel quarantining. Researchers in South Africa will also study whether B.1.1.529 causes disease that is more severe or milder than that produced by other variants, Lessells said. “The really key question comes around disease severity.”
Omicron variant threatens to unleash new global surge of COVID-19 pandemic -Scientists have detected a new variant of COVID-19, the Omicron (B.1.1.529) variant, which the World Health Organization (WHO) stated on Friday was officially recognized as “variant of concern” (VOC). The variant appears to have originated in southern Africa but has already been detected in several other countries. Initial indications are that an unusual constellation of mutations make the variant far more infectious than the Delta variant and potentially vaccine-resistant.In its statement Friday, the WHO said that “preliminary evidence suggests an increased risk of reinfection with this variant, as compared to other VOCs,” including the Delta variant. “The number of cases of this variant appears to be increasing in almost all provinces in South Africa.”The WHO said that the first known confirmed case of infection from the Omicron variant came from a specimen collected on November 9. In just over two weeks, however, it has quickly become the dominant strain in South Africa.The seven-day moving average of new cases in South Africa has risen fourfold from 265 to over 1,043 new COVID-19 cases per day in two weeks. Yesterday, the country reported 2,465 new infections. Seventy-five percent of all currently sequenced coronavirus cases are attributed to the latest variant, soon expected to reach 100 percent. New infections are exploding in highly urbanized Gauteng, a small northeastern province in South Africa, accounting for less than 2 percent of the country’s land area but home to a quarter of its population.Dr. Tulio de Oliveira, a bioinformatician at the Nelson R. Mandela School of Medicine and director of the Centre for Epidemic Response & Innovation, explained that the variant is “really worrisome at the mutational level.” The new variant possesses over 50 mutations, with 32 on the virus’ spike protein, which it uses to bind to human respiratory cells.Dr. de Oliveira explained that many of these mutations are linked to increasing antibody resistance, which raises concerns that vaccines and therapeutics will be less effective in combating the new variant.Expressing the gravity of the threat to the entire world population, the European Centers for Disease Control and Prevention issued a statement, warning, “given its immune escape potential and potentially increased transmissibility advantage compared to Delta, we assess the probability of further introduction and community spread in [Europe] as HIGH.” It added, “In a situation where the Delta variant is resurgent in [Europe], the impact of the introduction and possible further spread of Omicron could be VERY HIGH.” According to Dr. Yaneer Bar-Yam, a complex system physicist who has been studying pandemics for nearly two decades, current rough estimates indicate that the Omicron variant is six times more transmissible than the original variant and twice as transmissible as the Delta variant. Bar-Yam also estimates that the mortality rate for Omicron is eight times higher than the original variant. “The [Omicron variant] is probably everywhere, and it now has a huge capability to mutate. As it outpaces Delta, it's going to create even more infections. It will therefore evolve even faster than Delta.”
New covid variant: Omicron is a pandemic gut check – CNN --The emergence of the newly identified Omicron coronavirus variant feels like a pandemic gut check.Scientists have long known that the world would see emerging coronavirus variants. Viruses mutate constantly.But when South Africa's health minister announced Thursday the discovery of the B.1.1.529 variant, which appears to be spreading rapidly in parts of the country, it was the strongest reminder yet that the pandemic is not over.In the hours following that Thursday announcement, several nations -- including the United States and the United Kingdom -- banned travel from South Africa and surrounding African countries.The new travel restrictions announced by President Joe Biden on Friday will buy the US federal government more time to investigate the new Omicron variant that has emerged in South Africa, officials say. But not much.Inside the government, it is seen as inevitable that the new variant will appear in the US at some point, but the new restrictions should give federal health agencies and their global counterparts more time to learn about the variant, including the severity of the disease it causes. Officials do not believe, based on current surveillance, that the variant is in the US yet.Officials acted quickly to implement new restrictions. While the emergence of the variant had been flagged in the last several weeks, it was only in recent days that they learned how serious it was.US officials are expected to speak to scientists in South Africa again potentially on Sunday.
Scientists Worry Africa Travel Restrictions Will Discourage Others From Reporting COVID Variants - As world leaders rushed to restrict travelers from several African countries where a new, potentially more transmissible coronavirus variant was identified, public health experts warned that the move may discourage other nations from reporting future variants out of fear of facing the same restrictions. It's not yet clear how contagious the Omicron variant is or how effective current vaccines are against it, but fears over the strain's potentially high transmissibility led the US and a slew of other countries, including the UK, Italy, France, Japan, Thailand, Singapore, Morocco, and the Netherlands to restrict travel from South Africa, where the variant was discovered, and its neighboring countries. On Friday, President Joe Biden described the travel ban, which does not apply to US citizens and permanent residents, as a "precautionary measure" meant to give officials time to gather more information about the new variant.But experts told BuzzFeed News they doubted the policy would have much of an impact on the spread of the variant."Travel bans can buy time if you’re in front of a virus, but I don't think we’re in front of it," said Dr. Ingrid Katz, associate faculty director of the Harvard Global Health Institute.As of Saturday, dozens of cases have been reported in the UK, Italy, Germany, Belgium, Hong Kong, Israel, Botswana, and South Africa, which first reported the variant to the World Health Organization on Wednesday. The rapid identification of the new variant in countries outside of southern Africa has underscored what we've seen at multiple points in the pandemic: travel restrictions don't stop the spread of the coronavirus.Instead, experts said the policy poses economic harm and stigmatizes countries that should be applauded for sounding the alarm. It could also, they fear, disincentivize other countries who discover new variants from reporting cases of the Omicron variant or other game-changing versions of the coronavirus. "They discovered a new variant, they sequenced it, they let the world know. Shouldn't you be praising them?" said Amesh Adalja, an infectious diseases physician and senior scholar at the Johns Hopkins University Center for Health Security. "What is the incentive for the next country that identifies the next important variant if their reward is what President Biden did to South Africa?" On the ground, the restrictions have already created chaos. As the Netherlands scrambled to enact their restrictions, two flights from South Africa were left temporarily quarantined on the tarmac in Amsterdam for hours before hundreds of the passengers were finally tested for COVID.Katz, whose research has focused on the HIV response in sub-Saharan Africa, noted that it was largely because of South Africa's investment in genomic surveillance that they were able to identify the variant so quickly.
Coronavirus dashboard for November 26: pessimistic and optimistic scenarios for the winter wave, (loaded with graphics) As an initial matter, in the last day or two, there has been a mini-panic about a new strain out of South Africa called B.1.1.529 which may or may not get the designation Nu. While this *may* be a concern, I wouldn’t worry just yet. Here’s a link to an excellent thread from Carl Bergstrom, a bio-statistician who is one of my go-to expert reads. He writes that “*If* the turn-around is due to increased transmissibility, instead of other e.g. behavior factors, it’s going to a rough winter,” but that while “the fraction of B.1.1.529 is increasing faster[, ] I think that is that is largely due to different denominators.” The question of the season is how much of a winter wave the US will have. A number of writers have posited that the US is going to have a very bad outbreak just like the EU has had in the last month or so. That’s certainly possible. If the US *were* to have a winter wave comparable to that of the EU, that would be at least a 5-fold increase from our recent low of 80,000 cases per day to over 400,000 per day. But I’m not so sure, mainly because unlike Europe, the US has had a recent very bad Delta wave that Europe mainly escaped. Since the UK did not escape Delta this summer (and has all but eliminated all its restrictions) it’s worthwhile to compare the two jurisdictions: Cases in the UK have risen from about 50 to 68 per 100,000 in the past 45 days or so, while cases in the EU have risen from 10 to 60 per 100,000. While it would be wrong to simply project these trends forward, at least *so far* we can say that the UK has not had a wave anything like the EU (nor, for that matter, has Canada, with 75% of its population fully vaccinated, where cases have only risen from 5 to 7 cases per 100,000; or Israel, where cases in the past two months have dropped from over 100 to only 4 per 100,000 with 65% of its population fully vaccinated but a very aggressive booster shot campaign. A look at the US by Census region since the beginning of the pandemic is very helpful in tracking climate effects as they affect patterns of infections because it appears that a pattern has emerged: Leaving aside the initial NYC-centered outbreak, where testing was very poor, we see that in both 2020 and 2021 the summer outbreaks started and were most intense in the South, then spread to the West, then the Northeast and finally the Midwest; and that the summer outbreaks were least intense in those last two regions. By contrast, in both autumn going into winter 2020 and 2021, the outbreaks first started in the Midwest, then the Northeast, before spreading to the West and the South. Again, in the last two Census regions, in 2020 the outbreaks were the least intense – and the same is true this year *so far.* Also, focusing on autumn 2020, the region which peaked first was the Midwest, right around Thanksgiving week. It is noteworthy that the Midwest outbreak last year was apparently seeded during the August motorcycle rally in South Dakota, and spread out from there, with the Dakotas being particularly hard hit. This year there was another rally, but as the below graph of the two Dakotas shows, infections hit a peak in South Dakota in early September and have declined since:This is certainly evidence that prior infections – and both Dakotas have had *confirmed* infections of over 18% and 20% and probably double or more that in reality – appear to have a dampening effect on subsequent ones, even of Delta. So, will the same pattern continue this autumn and winter, with the Midwest peaking now and other regions peaking two weeks after Christmas gatherings? A close-up of the 4 Census regions through Thanksgiving Day (so please ignore the last daily data entry, because it has everything to do with most States not bothering to report on the holiday) appears to suggest that this may be the case: Most notably, there has been no increase in the Midwest since one week ago. There has only been a slight increase in the South in the past 45 days, and none in the West. This is *very* different from last year’s huge increases in all regions during November. A look at the change in the one-week average in cases nationwide for the past 13 months shows that the 7 day average in cases was increased by almost 2 per 100,000 last November. By contrast, this year cases have increased on average only 0.5 cases per 100,000 per day: Since a 120,000 winter peak is, needless to say, much more preferable than a 500,000 peak, let’s hope that the US’s summer Delta wave does blunt infections during the winter, and the optimistic scenario is the one that pans out.
Decolonize This! by Kunstler - Now that Thanksgiving with all its racist trimmings is put to bed, will Americans be able to “decolonize” their minds? Not if the masters of universal hysteria can help it. Here it comes, just in time to reignite the limbic channels in your brain with pulses of cosmic terror on the runway to Christmas: The B.1.1.529 Covid-19 variant out of Botswana. It’s a beauty, with thirty-two mutations on its decorative spike protein, supposedly making it a deadly hazard to the already-vaccinated.Except the already-vaccinated were already catching the boring old Delta variant that so energized the year 2021, with its Fauci-inspired affronts to the Bill of Rights, working needle-in-arm with the mystery managers of “Joe Biden,” the cigar-store Indian who has decolonized the oval office from the brutish grip of western civ and all its dastardly legalities.Yes, I am sorry to tell you that the mRNA “vaccines” are just not working that well. The already-vaccinated millions, marinated in the goodness of their obedience to authority, live in terror of the unvaccinated, who so knavishly spread disease to those vaccinated against it. Say, what? Something ain’t workin’ right here.Half the nation can’t think straight, and for a good reason: The relentless mindfuckery abroad in this land courtesy of your politicized news media, the despotic social networks, the bottomless greed of the pharmaceutical-makers and their errand boys in the CDC, plus the malevolent generosity of sponsors like the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation and George Soros. Thus, the blue mommies of America follow Pied Pipers like NPR and Sanjay Gupta holding hands with Big Bird to vax-up the kids.It’s just a cult initiation ceremony, you understand. Vaxing the kids reinforces the psychotic mass formation intoxication of the blue mommies. It does absolutely nothing good for the kids, who realistically have a near-zero chance of being harmed by Covid-19 — but have a fair chance of being harmed by the mRNA “vaccines,” which will mess with their still-developing immune systems and their various organs. All the authority of Anthony Fauci’s officialdom presses remorselessly toward the ever-receding horizon of max vax. It begins to look like enough parents are onto the game and will refuse to go along with it. Dr. Fauci and his evil network are in the process of being smashed at long last. First, there is Robert F. Kennedy, Jr.’s book just out, The Real Anthony Fauci: Bill Gates, Big Pharma, and the Global War on Democracy and Public Health. I was up reading it at two-thirty in the morning. The Kindle version is $2.95, cheap. Get it. It’s a seamless, gripping, and lucid legal brief against a bureaucratic monster who was allowed to run amuck in forty-plus years of power-seeking, malicious money-grubbing, and death-dealing, and who has capped that career by destroying the economies of the western world and our accustomed liberties with it. RFK lays out exactly what Dr. Fauci has done, footnoted to the max with fact and numbers to back it all up, so that the people still capable of thinking cannot avoid the conclusion that they have been viciously played.
Hong Kong records two cases of the new variant detected in South Africa. -- The Hong Kong government said on Thursday that it had detected two cases of a new variant identified in South Africa, which scientists have warned shows a “big jump in evolution” and could limit the effectiveness of vaccines.The infections were detected in a man who had returned to Hong Kong from South Africa this month, and later in another man staying across the hall in the same quarantine hotel. (Hong Kong requires almost all overseas arrivals to quarantine in hotels for two to three weeks.) The virus’s genetic sequence was identical in both men, suggesting airborne transmission, according to the city’sCenter for Health Protection. Both men were vaccinated.Further sequencing by the University of Hong Kong confirmed that the viruses belonged to the new variant from South Africa, officials said, though they acknowledged that information about the variant’s public health impact was “lacking at the moment.”Some Hong Kong experts have questioned the length and efficacy of Hong Kong’s quarantines, noting that officials have recorded several cases of residents in quarantine hotels apparently infecting people who were staying in other rooms.In the case of the latest variant infections, the government has blamed the first man for not wearing a surgical mask when opening his hotel room door, as well as “unsatisfactory air flow” in the hotel. As of Friday afternoon there had been no reports of infections in nearby rooms.The presence of the new variant may complicate efforts to reopen the border between Hong Kong and mainland China. For months, Hong Kong officials have said that resuming quarantine-free travel between the Chinese territory and the mainland — virtually the only places in the world still pursuing a containment strategy that seeks full eradication of the virus — is their top priority, even though the strategy has damaged the city’s reputation as a global finance hub.Mainland officials have said that Hong Kong is not doing enough to control the virus, even though the city has recorded just two locally transmitted cases in the last six months. The mainland has recently faced new domestic outbreaks; on Thursday, the National Health Commission there reported four new local cases. On Thursday evening, Hong Kong’s No. 2 official, John Lee, saidmainland officials had told him earlier in the day that Hong Kong had “basically fulfilled” the conditions to reopen the border. He said details would still need to be worked out, including the introduction of a mainland-style “health code” app that has raised privacy concerns.
Europe is being tested by waves of cases that threaten its progress against the pandemic. --Nearly 20 months after pandemic lockdowns first began, governments across Europe are beginning to tighten restrictions again amid the latest wave of new coronavirus cases, threatening the gains that the region has made against the pandemic.France is racing to offer booster shots to all adults and will not renew health passes for those who refuse. Deaths are rising in Germany, with its 68 percent vaccination rate, a worrying trend for a highly inoculated country. Austria has been in a nationwide lockdown since Monday, and made vaccinations mandatory.In Eastern Europe, where far-right and populist groups have fueled vaccine skepticism, vaccination rates are lower than the rest of the continent. Bulgaria, where a quarter of the population is fully vaccinated, is turning back to shutdowns or other restrictive measures.The quickly deteriorating situation in Europe is worrisome for the United States, where the seven-day average of new cases has risen 24 percent in the past two weeks. (The number of new deaths reported in the United States is down 6 percent.) Trends in new cases in the United States have tended to follow Europe by a few weeks.“Time and again, we’ve seen how the infection dynamics in Europe are mirrored here several weeks later,” Carissa F. Etienne, director of the Pan American Health Organization, told reporters on Wednesday. “The future is unfolding before us, and it must be a wake-up call for our region because we are even more vulnerable.”The White House insists that while new infections are on the rise, the United States can avoid European-style lockdowns.“We are not headed in that direction,” Jeff Zients, the White House coronavirus response coordinator, said this week. “We have the tools to accelerate the path out of this pandemic: widely available vaccinations, booster shots, kids’ shots, therapeutics.”But the chief of the World Health Organization, Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, said that some countries had lapsed into a “false sense of security.”He issued a warning during a news briefing on Wednesday: “While Europe is again the epicenter of the pandemic, no country or region is out of the woods.”
German air force to transfer COVID patients as some hospitals overwhelmed(Reuters) - Germany readied its air force to transfer COVID-19 patients from overwhelmed hospitals in the south as national case numbers rocketed and a new virus variant in South Africa caused widespread alarm. Germany posted a dip in the coronavirus infection rate over the summer but cases have risen sharply in recent weeks and daily new infections hit a record above 76,000 on Friday. On Thursday, Europe's biggest economy crossed the threshold of 100,000 COVID-19-related deaths Link amid warnings from hospitals mainly in the south and the east that their intensive care units were filling to capacity. Later on Friday, the air force will transport severely ill COVID-19 patients from the southern town of Memmingen to Muenster near Osnabrueck in the north, a security source told Reuters. This will be the first time the air force uses planes fitted with up to six ICU beds - labelled "flying intensive care units" - to transfer COVID-19 patients within Germany. The detection of a new COVID-19 variant in South Africa added to concern over rising infection numbers, with acting Health Minister Jens Spahn saying the government would declare South Africa a "virus variant area" on Friday. The decision, which will come into effect from Friday night, means airlines will only be allowed to return Germans to Germany from South Africa, Spahn said on Twitter. All will have quarantine for 14 days. Worries over the impact of the new variant caused financial market jitters. Germany's blue-chip DAX index .GDAXI fell as much as 4%, with airline Lufthansa's LHAG.DE stock dropping more than 10%.
Belgium confirms case of new, heavily mutated Covid variant - Belgium has confirmed a case of the new, heavily mutated variant of the virus that causes Covid-19, according to one of the country's leading virologists. Marc Van Ranst, who works with the Rega Institute for Medical Research, said a sample was confirmed as the novel B.1.1.529 variant in a traveler who returned from Egypt on Nov. 11. The patient first showed symptoms on Nov. 22. Belgium is home to the capital of the European Union in Brussels. The variant was first detected in a small number of samples in South Africa, according to the World Health Organization. There were also reports on Friday morning that cases had been found in Israel and Hong Kong. The B.1.1.529 variant contains 30 mutations to the spike protein that allows the virus to enter the body, scientist Tulio de Oliveira said Thursday during a briefing held by the South African Department of Health. The new strain has roughly 50 mutations in total, including 10 to the receptor binding domain, the part of the virus that first comes in contact with cells. The highly contagious delta variant, which the WHO says accounts for 99% of the world's Covid cases, has just two mutations to the receptor binding domain. Health officials caution that many of these mutations could lead to increased antibody resistance and transmissibility, limiting the effectiveness of Covid vaccines. The WHO convened a meeting Friday to determine how Covid therapeutics and immunizations might be affected by the new variant. The WHO's virus evolution working group will determine whether to list the new strain as a variant of interest or a variant of concern. The variant of concern label is reserved for Covid mutations that are more contagious, more virulent and more skilled at evading public health measures, vaccines and therapeutics. The emerging variant arrives in Europe amid an already devastating Covid surge linked to the delta strain. Europe saw more than 2.4 million new Covid cases over the week ended Nov. 21, an increase of 11% from the previous seven days, according to the WHO's most recent epidemiological update. Europe represented 67% of all Covid cases reported globally during that span, the WHO measured. Austria started its fourth lockdown of the pandemic on Monday, with a nationwide vaccine mandate scheduled to take effect on Feb. 1. Chancellor Alexander Schallenberg has said that the lockdown will last for at most 20 days. Slovakia followed suit Wednesday with a two-week lockdown, closing restaurants and select businesses in hopes of curbing the nation's latest Covid outbreak, Reuters reported. The Netherlands entered a partial lockdown on Saturday as well, requiring some companies to shut early and preventing the public from attending sporting events for three weeks. The European Union's executive branch recommended Friday that all 27 member states suspend travel from southern Africa. The U.K. has already halted flights from six countries in the region, while France and Italy have imposed their own temporary travel bans on southern Africa as well. Singapore is also banning flights from southern Africa, with Japan increasing border controls for travelers from the region.
COVID cases and deaths surge to record levels in Greece - Nearly 1,600 people have lost their life to COVID-19 so far this month in Greece. It brings the total number of people who have succumbed to the virus since the start of the pandemic to 17,517 out of a 10.3 million population. There has been a huge upsurge in the number of daily cases over the previous month and a half. Over the first seven days of October average daily cases recorded were 2,174. Cases are now on average more than three times higher. The record for the highest number of daily cases was broken on November 9 when 8,623 were diagnosed. Greece is rapidly heading towards a million cases of COVID, with yesterday’s 7,108 cases bringing the total to 901,661. Particularly hard hit is northern Greece with hospitals forced to turn people away such as the Papanikolaou General Hospital located in the outskirts of Thessaloniki, Greece’s second city. Speaking to SKAI TV on November 20, the head of the hospital’s intensive care units (ICU) said that his department saw all beds occupied at the start of the day. “This has never happened before… We are in an emergency situation and the health system, doctors and nurses have all reached their limits.”
COVID-19 cases break records in parts of Europe - COVID-19 cases are breaking records in parts of Europe as many countries grapple with a new wave of infections. Four countries, Hungary, the Netherlands, Slovakia and the Czech Republic, all have reported their highest daily COVID-19 infections since the pandemic began, Reuters reported on Wednesday. Amid the rise in cases, the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control is recommending booster shots for all adults, reversing its prior stance. People above the age of 40 will be prioritized to receive the booster.Around 65 percent of individuals in the European Union are fully vaccinated. That rate is lower — just 54 percent — in the World Health Organization's (WHO) European region, which includes 53 European and Central Asian countries.Countries in Europe are considering new coronavirus restrictions and vaccine mandates in order to combat the spread of the virus. Robb Butler, the executive director for WHO Europe, said the organization does not have a position on vaccine mandates to fight the virus. He added, however, that they are a "very delicate" matter.“It polarizes, you risk marginalizing [people] and it can come at the expense of trust and social inclusion. So it’s a very delicate measure, a last-resort measure. Lessons of history have shown us that where vaccines are mandated or made compulsory, there is an erosion of trust and we have seen this polarization,” he said.WHO Europe previously warned the region could see 700,000 COVID-19 deaths in the next couple of months following the spike in cases.
Just 54 percent vaccinated in Europe: WHO official - Just 54 percent of people in the European region are vaccinated against the coronavirus, according to an official with the Europe branch of the World Health Organization (WHO).“We’ve only got 54 percent of the 1 billion people living in Europe fully vaccinated,” Robb Butler, the executive director for WHO Europe, told CNBC’s “Squawk Box Europe” on Wednesday. “There are [around] 45 percent who are unvaccinated or not fully vaccinated, that’s a bigger issue for our policy and decision-makers right now — driving up vaccination rates,” he added.The WHO’s Europe branch includes 53 countries in Europe and Central Asia. The rate of full vaccination in the European Union itself is slightly higher, at 65 percent.As countries in Europe grapple with the region's latest wave of coronavirus cases, Butler said the WHO had no position on countries implementing vaccine mandates to combat the virus. However, he added that mandates were a "very delicate" issue.“It polarizes, you risk marginalizing [people] and it can come at the expense of trust and social inclusion. So it’s a very delicate measure, a last-resort measure. Lessons of history have shown us that where vaccines are mandated or made compulsory, there is an erosion of trust and we have seen this polarization,” he said.
Germany confirms cases of the variant in a married couple. - The new coronavirus variant known as Omicron is present in Germany, according to the health ministry for the state of Bavaria, which confirmed that two people infected with the new variant returned from a trip to South Africa this week.The two travelers, a married couple who arrived on a flight on Tuesday, tested positive for the coronavirus, Klaus Holetschek, the Bavarian health minister, said in a public television interview on Friday. Hours later, his ministry confirmed that rapid sequencing had determined the couple were infected with the new variant.In addition to those two, at least one person returning from South Africa was suspected of being of infected with the Omicron variant in the state of Hesse, in central Germany. The news prompted fresh concern at a time when Germany was already struggling to curb a brutal fourth wave of Covid-19 that had produced tens of thousands of new daily infections — more than the country has had at any point in the pandemic. Hospitals across the country were already struggling to accommodate a surge in Covid patients.
U.K. confirms two cases of the Omicron coronavirus variant. -- As the world scrambled to prevent the spread of the new Omicron coronavirus variant that was first detected in southern Africa, Britain’s Health Security Agency confirmed on Saturday that two cases of the variant had been recorded in the country.In a news conference on Saturday evening, Prime Minister Boris Johnson said that to curb the spread of the variant, face masks would be required in stores and on public transportation, a rule the country had ended in July.“As always, I must stress this, with a new variant there are many things we just cannot know at this early stage,” Mr. Johnson said.“It does appear that Omicron spreads very rapidly and can be spread between people who are double vaccinated,” he added. Although the science around Omicron is still new, it is a “very extensive mutation” of previous configurations of the virus that could reduce vaccine effectiveness, Mr. Johnson said.The cases are said to be linked to travel in southern Africa, the British government confirmed in a statement. Sajid Javid, Britain’s health secretary, described the new cases as a “stark reminder” that the pandemic was not yet over. “Thanks to our world-class genomic sequencing, we have been made aware of two U.K. cases of the Omicron variant,” Mr. Javid said. “We have moved rapidly, and the individuals are self-isolating while contact tracing is ongoing.”
Why drinking water needs monitoring for HIV drugs --People who live in large towns and cities may think that upstream contamination doesn’t affect them. After all, water treatment plants protect them, removing heavy metals, bacteria, viruses and more from their tap water.But the tap water in large towns and cities often come from rivers upstream. And there is another type of contamination that slips right through almost all water treatment plants.That contamination is the medicines other people use upstream. Those pass through their wastewater treatment plants. Then the medicines end up in the rivers supplying drinking water to cities and towns downstream.“What I can say to a city person is, not all clear water means clean. As researchers we know the challenges with pollutants. Water treatment plants cannot remove pharmaceuticals. But we release pharmaceuticals ourselves into wastewater on a daily basis,” says Nomngongo.“In the cities, we get medications because we have medical aids (health insurance). Sometimes, we don’t care and say, ‘I am healed now’ and throw our medicines away. The easiest way to do it is to flush it down the toilet. “We don’t think that this might come back to us through our own tap.”
Deadly Pesticide Still Legal in U.S. Can Harm Bee Populations for Generations, Study Finds - A new study shows just how dangerous pesticides can be for bees.The research, published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America this month, found that bee populations can take a hit for generations if a bee is exposed just once to a common pesticide during its first year of life."Especially in agricultural areas, pesticides are often used multiple times a year and multiple years in a row," study lead author and University of California in Davis ecology Ph.D. candidate Clara Stuligross told The Guardian. "So this really shows us what that can actually mean for bee populations."Stuligross and her team studied a type of bee called the blue orchard bee. These bees are about the size of a honeybee, but they live alone and have a blue, metallic color, National Geographic explained. They are also important pollinators for native U.S. wildflowers and crops like apples, cherries, almonds and peaches.The researchers exposed the bees to a neonicotinoid called imidacloprid, which is the most commonly used neonicotinoid in the U.S. and one of the most used in California specifically, according to The Independent.Neonicotinoids are well known to be harmful to bees and other insects because they bind to their nerve cells and prevent the insect from transmitting electrical signals, National Geographic explained. However, this study is unique in showing how exposure can continue to impact bee populations for generations, something known as the "carryover effect."The scientists exposed the bees to the pesticide at different life stages and got the following results, The Guardian explained:
- Bees exposed only in their first year of life saw 20 percent fewer offspring.
- Bees exposed once as adults had 30 percent fewer offspring.
- Bees exposed once as both larvae and adults had 44 percent fewer offspring.
The research therefore adds to the evidence the neonicotinoids are harming bee and insect populations, which have both taken a dive in recent decades. "These findings support what many of us beekeepers and solitary beekeepers suspect is happening in agricultural fields," researcher and beekeeper Steve Peterson, who was not involved with the research, told National Geographic. "We are seeing massive declines in all kinds of insects over the past several decades and much of it may be due to pesticide residues in the environment."
Researchers seeking clues in nature to track Mead ethanol plant's trauma - Honey bees will fly miles seeking clumps of Dutch clover in a pasture or the yellow flowers of wild mustard in a roadside ditch, sources of nectar and pollen that grow plentiful in eastern Nebraska. When a bee discovers a good source of food on the landscape — milkweed flowering on the edge of a field, to give another example — it will return to the hive to recruit other foragers to the spot. Using a series of waggles, turns and head butts to communicate the quality of the resources, what direction and how far to find it with its nest mates, the honey bee will return to the discovery with a foraging party. The bees will then go to work packing pollen into baskets woven from the hair on their back legs and slurping up nectar from the base of a flower using their straw-like tongue, loading themselves like a fleet of miniature cargo planes. Honey bees’ foraging efficiency can also work against them. If the bees bring something harmful from the environment into the colony, like pollen or nectar laced with pesticides, the work ethic critical to a successful hive can be interrupted, sometimes with disastrous effects.Queen bees who come into contact with neonicotinoids, a pesticide class similar to nicotine that overstimulates the insect's nervous system to the point of paralysis, will stop laying eggs, potentially creating a future labor shortage in the colony. Nurse bees exposed to pesticides will become agitated to the point where they will furiously groom themselves instead of caring for the newly hatched bees. The same thing will happen to housekeeper bees, which can allow diseases to spread. Foraging bees that fly into pesticide-contaminated plants may die away from the hive or become severely impaired, forcing younger bees into those roles before they are physiologically ready, causing a shortage of pollen and nectar.“If a thousand people die in a city of 60,000, that’s a lot of people,” Weisbrod said. “That’s a lot of jobs that are then unfilled.” The resourcefulness and susceptibility bees demonstrate interacting with their surroundings has led to their use as a bioindicator species, one that can help monitor the spread of pollution in the environment. Since 2017, the loss of dozens of honey bee colonies has indicated something was wrong in the environment at the Eastern Nebraska Research and Extension Center, UNL’s agricultural research station south of Mead. Ultimately, AltEn, a biofuel plant just north of the research farm, was identified as the reason bees were dying en masse. While it was in operation, AltEn was processing between 500,000 and 900,000 pounds of pesticide-treated seed into ethanol every day, creating hazardous solid and liquid byproducts that were spread on farm fields for miles. The Nebraska Department of Environment and Energy ordered the plant to shut down in February following years of violations of the state's environmental regulations. Now, attention has turned to determining how far the pesticide contamination spread — and at what level.
Biden mulls reversing Trump rules on western grouse species (AP) — The Biden administration on Friday said it will consider new measures to protect greater sage grouse, a bird species once found across much of the U.S. West that has suffered drastic declines in recent decades due to oil and gas drilling, grazing, wildfires and other pressures.The announcement of a range-wide evaluation of habitat plans for greater sage grouse came after the Trump administration tried to scale back conservation efforts adopted when Biden was vice president in 2015. A federal court blocked Trump’s changes. But Biden administration officials said the attempt set back conservation efforts — even as the chicken-sized bird’s habitat was further ravaged by wildfires, invasive plants and continued development. Disagreement over the region’s sage grouse is longstanding and often bitter, and any new restrictions the administration adopts against energy or agriculture is sure to further inflame tensions. Republican-run states and industries that profit off public lands have clashed with wildlife advocates over how much space the birds need to survive. Many environmentalists insisted that the 2015 conservation plans didn’t go far enough because of loopholes that allowed grazing and drilling on land that sage grouse need. Opponents said they hobbled economic progress. Biologists say wide buffers from drilling and other activities are needed to protect sage grouse breeding areas where birds engage in elaborate annual mating ritualsBureau of Land Management Deputy Director Nada Culver said “everything’s on the table” as the agency launches its evaluation of sage grouse habitat, with no set deadlines for action.“From changes to the buffers, to how we manage energy development, to how we manage every other activity....we are evaluating it and we are looking for input on what are the most important things to look at,” Culver said. Officials also will look at how climate change is adding to pressures on sage grouse. Culver pointed to data showing wildfires burned almost 10,700 square miles (28,000 square kilometers) of the bird’s habitat since 2016. The vast majority of the fires were on federal lands.Greater sage grouse once numbered in the millions across all or portions of 11 Western states. Populations have dropped 65% since 1986, government scientists recently concluded.
Public records reveal frustration as state sought to deal with pesticide dangers from ethanol plant -After environmental regulators learned that AltEn was using pesticide treated seed to make ethanol, producing highly contaminated waste products in the process, they also learned there was little they could do about it. Emails obtained from the Environmental Protection Agency through a Freedom of Information Act request by the Journal Star shed further insight onto the confusion and legal obstacles regulators faced in trying to address complaints from the people of Mead about the plant. Shortly after an analysis of samples collected from AltEn’s wet distiller’s grains — known as wet cake — showed they contained alarmingly high levels of pesticides in April 2019, Tim Creger, a pesticide program manager at the Nebraska Department of Agriculture, was at a loss for who to go to for regulatory help. Creger reached out to the USDA, which under the Federal Seed Act determines what language must appear on a seed bag label, but an official there said responsibility for enforcing what the label actually said fell elsewhere. “The person I spoke with was adamant that USDA only enforces that law in a way that ensures seed companies include all required language on the seed bag,” Creger wrote to officials in the Pesticide Branch of the EPA’s Region 7 office located in Lenexa, Kansas. The official said it wouldn’t be up to the USDA to enforce the provisions on the label related to pesticide-treated seed being used in ethanol production and suggested that responsibility lay with the EPA instead.
West Virginia under toxic threat from highest industrial selenium pollution levels in the country -An element with toxic effects for West Virginia’s aquatic life is being transferred to food chains on land in proportion to the extent of coal mining nearby. “The more mining, the more selenium entering the streams, the more selenium is getting into the food chain,” said Jacqueline Gerson, a postdoctoral researcher in ecology at the University of California at Berkeley. “There’s no doubt that mining is the cause.” Gerson coauthored a study showing evidence of the transfers behind adult insects and spiders with among the highest body selenium concentrations ever measured. “That’s really important because it suggests that if the selenium is in the water and now it’s getting out of the water via bugs, any animal in the terrestrial system that eats these bugs is then also going to be getting higher selenium concentrations,” Gerson said. “So it’s not just the fish in the water that we’re concerned about.” Published in Environmental Science & Technology, the study focused on mined streams in the Mud River basin of Lincoln County, a watershed that drains the Hobet Mine – one of the largest surface mines in central Appalachia before it shuttered in 2015. Ecologists and environmentalists long have been keenly aware that selenium accumulation in larval aquatic insects and ¦sh from mineimpacted streams eats away at the biodiversity of central Appalachian waters. But Gerson's study showing selenium exposure in land habitats has human health implications. Selenium is an essential mineral that is critical to human health in small amounts, helping prevent damage to cells and aiding heart and thyroid health. There’s only a “modest difference” between selenium consumption levels thought to promote human health and those linked to acute or chronic effects, according to an International Joint Commission report on selenium. Toxic human exposure may occur when selenium levels build up in ecosystems via leaching from mining waste into aquatic systems and emissions from burning coal or other industrial activities, the report observed. West Virginia's risk of toxic exposure to selenium from industrial activity is the highest in the country. Forty-one of the 50 industrial point sources with e©uent limit exceedances that have discharged the most selenium so far in 2021 are in West Virginia, according to a Gazette-Mail review of U.S. Environmental Protection Agency data. Those include only sources that discharge to impaired waterbodies and release pollutants like selenium potentially contributing to waterbody impairment
Lahore named most polluted city in world -The Pakistani city of Lahore has been named the most polluted city in the world, according to a report by The Associated Press.According to Swiss air monitoring company IQAir, Lahore has an air quality index of 203 on the US AQI scale.Delhi, India, follows Lahore with an air quality index score of 183, as the two traded places with one another during the course of the morning, according to the AP.Dhaka, Bangladesh, came in third with an index score of 169, and Kolkata, India, came in fourth with a score of 168, according to IQAir. This comes as Lahore, once dubbed as the city of gardens, faces current problems as intense urbanization and growing population has left little to no room for greenery in the city.Lahore residents also were sickened with respiratory and other illnesses due to the increased smog and particle-laden air, the AP reported. Local medical officials have advised residents to start wearing face masks when outside to avoid respiratory-related diseases. Lahore is Pakistan’s second-largest city behind the capital of Karachi, the AP noted.
LaToya Cantrell wants to move Gordon Plaza residents off toxic landfill; where's the money? - Shortly before Congress approved the federal infrastructure law, New Orleans Mayor LaToya Cantrell touted the $1.2 trillion package as key to buying out Gordon Plaza residents who had learned, only years after moving into their homes, that the subdivision was built atop a toxic landfill. "It speaks to our ability to really look at environmental injustices that our folks have had to live with like Gordon Plaza," Cantrell said of the infrastructure law in an Oct. 21 interview with WBOK radio. "It creates an opportunity to tap into resources to build a solar power farm and then have revenue to potentially move our people off of that land."Her words were bolstered Nov. 4 when her chief administrative officer, Gilbert Montaño, told the City Council there was a "general line item" in the administration's 2022 budget proposal dedicated to moving forward on buyouts, using money borrowed through a $300 million bond sale."I know that there's various pieces of litigation associated with that, but I wouldn't let that stop us from trying to move forward and continue to make it a priority at the mayor's direction and ensuring that this gets resolved within this bond package," Montaño said. "There is a specific line item within our capital budget that will begin as a starting point for us to then decide once ... calculation methodologies come to fruition to build up in some sort of way to rectify the situation." "This is imminent," he said. "This is something we will figure out."
More than 20 ill after officials failed to warn about sewage-contaminated oysters --More than 20 people fell ill after Maryland officials failed to warn residents about oysters that were contaminated by raw sewage. Between Oct. 28 and Oct. 30, heavy rain sent 25,000 gallons of sewage into the Potomac River, contaminating oysters in the water, The Baltimore Sun reported.St. Mary’s County Metropolitan Commission Executive Director George Erichsen said the sewage company reported the incident to the Maryland Department of the Environment (MDE) and made a Facebook post to tell the public. The agency, however, reportedly failed to provide warning to the public until Nov. 13, after oysters from the river were served at an event in Virginia. Potomac Riverkeeper Dean Naujoks told the Sun the failure is “inexcusable” and that “people are sick because MDE failed to do its job.”After the department did issue a public warning, shellfish harvesting was suspended in the parts of the river that were contaminated, the paper reported.
Officials Consider Feeding Florida’s Starving Manatees -- It is currently illegal to feed manatees, which are protected by the Marine Mammal Protection Act of 1972, the Endangered Species Act of 1973 and the Florida Manatee Sanctuary Act of 1978. However, so many manatees have died of starvation this year that state and federal officials are ready to take drastic measures."We are considering a pilot program to do some supplemental feeding," Florida Fish and Wildlife Conservation Commission (FWC) chairman Rodney Barreto told the Miami Herald. "We continue to rescue manatees, and we want to be able to rescue even more during this emergency."As of November 12, 1,003 manatees have died in the state of Florida this year, according to FWC figures reported by CNN. This means deaths have more than doubled since the same time last year, when 498 manatees had died. The 2021 death toll also represents more than 10 percent of Florida's entire manatee population, the Miami Herald reported.The deaths have been classed as an Unusual Mortality Event and are largely due to starvation. The most hard hit population are the manatees that live in Brevard County's Indian River Lagoon, where around 58 percent of the seagrass that manatees feed on has died in the last 11 years. This loss in an important food is partly due to algal blooms caused by nutrient pollution, which block sunlight from reaching the seagrass. Nutrient pollution can come from wastewater, microplastics and factory farming, and scientists say the manatees' distress indicates broader problems."A lot of our environments are under pressure, and if we do not relieve that pressure, those systems will break," Michael Walsh, a clinical associate professor of aquatic animal health at the University of Florida College of Veterinary Medicine, told CNN. "This is a continual warning sign that this is a gigantic ecosystem problem, not just a manatee problem."However, to help the manatees right now, state and federal officials are working together on a response. The feeding proposal awaits permission from the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, the Miami Herald reported. Then, officials need to figure out what foods are best for the manatees. One option is to add more algae to their ecosystem. The other is to feed them common land-grown vegetables."But we need to test all that, we don't know what foods they will accept. When you put lettuce in an estuarine environment, it's going to wilt faster. So that may not work at all, we may need to use cabbage," Save the Manatee Club Executive Director Patrick Rose told the Miami Herald.
Sea Shepherd Finds Endangered Amazonian Dolphins Dead and Possibly Harpooned --Sea Shepherd recently completed the first scientific expedition of a research campaign focused on the conservation of two species of endangered Amazonian river dolphins. To their surprise, during the 19-day expedition, they found three dead cetaceans, one with net marks and a possible harpoon injury and another with a possible harpoon mark. All three individuals appeared rather healthy with no detectable natural cause of death, said Nathalie Gil, the expedition leader and CEO of Sea Shepherd Brazil. Despite being protected under Brazilian law for decades already, dolphins do die when entangled in fishing nets. Fishermen are supposed to free the endangered species "immediately," but, often, when dolphins become agitated, fishermen will harpoon them to prevent them from ripping their nets off, Gil explained.Sea Shepherd launched the research campaign in partnership with INPA, Brazil's National Institute for Research in the Amazon, to study the tucuxi river dolphin (Sotalia fluviatilis) and the Amazon river dolphin (Inia geoffrensis). The latter is also known as the pink dolphin due to its distinctive coloring. Both freshwater species are classified as endangered on the IUCN Red List of Threatened Species and therefore protected against fishing and killing. Despite this, recent research by INPA found that their populations are declining by 50% every 9-10 years. The INPA findings suggest that both species may be more threatened than previously believed, and this latest study hopes to provide critical evidence regarding the actual health of both endemic species of river dolphin in the Amazon basin.According to Sea Shepherd, the main threats to Amazonian river dolphins include entanglement in fishing nets, populations getting divided by newly-built dams and conflicts with fishermen. For years, the dolphins were seen as "competitors" for fish and killed, explained Gil.
Severe flood hits Malta during one of the country's worst storms ever A powerful storm hit Malta on November 25, 2021, dumping a month's worth of rain in just several hours and causing severe floods. The country's Civil Protection Department described it as 'one of the worst storms in a very long time.' A severe thunderstorm struck Malta on the morning of November 25, sweeping away cars in many parts of the country and blocking roads by raging waters and stalled cars. The worst affected were Msida, Gzira, Mosta, and Naxxar.1 Teams from Malta’s civil protection, police, and military rescued several people trapped in floodwaters. Two civil protection officers got into difficulty while rescuing a man trapped in his car in Burmarrad and had to be airlifted to safety by an Armed Forces of Malta helicopter.2 Four people took refuge on the roof of vehicles trapped in floodwaters in Salina before they were eventually rescued. According to data provided by the country's meteorological service, an average of 74.6 mm (2.93 inches) of rain was registered on November 25, with Selmun registering a total of 107.6 mm (4.2 inches) in 24 hours. Most of this rain fell within just several hours. November is usually Malta's wettest month, with an average of 108.6 mm (4.27 inches).
Canberra's rainiest November on record -- With 147.8 mm (5.8 inches) of rain so far this month, Australian capital Canberra has set its new all-time November rainfall record. This is 2.5 times more than the city's average November rain, and significantly higher than the previous record for the month of November set in 2010 at 119.4 mm (4.7 inches). The capital recorded between 30 and 50 mm (1.18 - 1.96 inches) of rain on November 25, leading to overloading of stormwater systems and overland flooding. The ACT State Emergency Service has received more than 100 requests for assistance since 09:00 LT on November 25. #Canberra has already had its wettest November on record, with rain still moving through the #ACT surrounds today. Conditions will ease into the weekend but #flooding will continue. Make sure you check the forecast and warnings: https://t.co/CZRvJqHKXG@actesa pic.twitter.com/eJ7MiR2hub — Bureau of Meteorology Australian Capital Territory (@BOM_ACT) November 26, 2021 Continued & heavy #rain is currently increasing the #flood threat in numerous locations. Teams are monitoring multiple areas & #Warnings are being continuously updated. Areas of concern incl: #Gunnedah #Narrabri #Boggabri & Wee Waa More: https://t.co/Ss766eSCrL@NSWSES @WaterNSW pic.twitter.com/872aUyJE9U — Bureau of Meteorology, New South Wales (@BOM_NSW) November 26, 2021 #Flood Update: Situation in #NSW remains volatile tonight. Fast rising #flood waters currently impacting around #Molong, reports of rescues underway. People in #Macquarie catchment should take extra care: https://t.co/S4dyP1u5bA @NSWSES Molong Unit@nswpolice @WaterNSW pic.twitter.com/5Tn331gHiB — Bureau of Meteorology, New South Wales (@BOM_NSW) November 26, 2021 Australia is on track for its wettest spring in a decade and some regions in NSW have already received more than three times their average rainfall for November.
Vancouver is now completely cut off from the rest of Canada by road - There is currently no way to drive between Vancouver and the rest of Canada. The Lower Mainland and Fraser Valley are now completely cut off from the rest of British Columbia and the country by road.Flooding and mudslides had closed most routes between the coast and BC Interior over the past 24 hours, but the back route through Whistler on Hwy 99 remained open this morning.That changed shortly after 11 am, when DriveBC reported that a mudslide 42 kilometres south of Lillooet had shut down Hwy 99 as well.The only way to drive between the coast and the rest of Canada at this time is through the United States.However, Washington is also seeing highway closures due to the inclement weather and residents would need a COVID-19 test to re-enter Canada. Here’s a full list of mainland BC highways currently closed:
A “parade of storms” threatens more flooding in British Columbia - Another deluge is forecast to batter western and southwestern British Columbia on Thursday, threatening many of the same areas hit by historic floods last week. Much of the Fraser River Valley and parts of central BC were inundated after a month of rain fell in just 48 hours. Meteorologists and climate scientists have expressed urgent concern that the already waterlogged region, which saw mudslides in addition to the flooding of low-lying agricultural land, is ill prepared to handle another downpour. Many parts of the Fraser Valley remain flooded, and recovery efforts to shore up dikes and rebuild roads are threatened by the approaching rains. The floods were caused by an atmospheric river, a dense column of water vapour from the tropics that condenses upon landfall and can dump large volumes of water in a short period of time. The atmospheric river responsible for last week’s floods created storms that released more than 185 millimetres of rain in less than 48 hours, which is equivalent to what the region typically sees in the entire month of November. Armel Castellan, a meteorologist at Environment and Climate Change Canada, described the gathering rains as a “parade of storms.” Castellan predicts another 40 to 70 mm of rain in the Fraser Valley, and 100 mm on the North Shore mountains and Howe Sound, just north of Vancouver. The heaviest rains, on the order of 200 to 300 millimetres, are forecast to hit Vancouver Island. The freezing level is also expected to rise above the mountain peaks, causing snowmelt that could contribute to further floods. Earlier this week, a flood watch was issued for the Haida Gwaii archipelago just off the southern tip of Alaska as an atmospheric river released 300 millimetres of rain. Although the storm system moving into southwestern B.C. on Thursday is not expected to discharge as much rain, experts predict it will last longer than last week’s storms, raising the danger of further mudslides and floods. The number of deaths attributed to the initial floods has grown to four. All of the victims were buried in a mudslide that occurred after heavy rains fell on the northern stretch of Highway 99, northeast of Vancouver. The bodies of Anita and Mirsad Hadzic, a couple from Vancouver returning home from a vacation, were recovered between Monday and Thursday last week. Also found in the debris was the body of Steven Taylor, a construction worker and rugby player originally from Calgary, Alberta, and Brett Diederichs, who was in the process of moving to Victoria. A fifth man is still considered missing. Scenes of devastation are now ubiquitous across the Fraser Valley, the agricultural centre of the province. Eyewitness accounts describe the now flooded Sumas Prairie region near the city of Abbotsford as a lake, where what initially appear as little islands are actually the roofs of submerged barns. The flood zones were once a shallow lake, home to the Sumas First Nation before they were shunted off by the BC government in the 1920s. The lake was then drained and parceled off as farmland.
Dry River Triggers Mass Protest In Iran's Third-Largest City - Thousands of people have joined a rally in central Iranian city of Isfahan to protest against water cuts and the drying up of the river that passes through Iran's third-largest city. Images broadcast on state television on November 19 and videos published on social networks showed farmers and others from across Isfahan Province gathered in the dried-up river bed and elsewhere in the city, chanting slogans such as "Give Zayandeh Rood River back."First Vice President Mohammad Mokhber said that meetings were being held over the issue to try to solve the water problem in Isfahan and elsewhere. The protest movement started in Isfahan on November 8 and a number of demonstrators set up tents in the river bed last week. Similar protests have been held across Iran in recent years. In July, deadly rallies broke out in the southwestern province of Khuzestan amid widespread water shortages. The Iran Meteorological Organization has estimated that 97 percent of the country is experiencing drought to some degree. Mismanagement by the authorities has also been cited as a main cause for the water crisis.
Record sea-effect snow in northern Japan - A potent storm system is moving over the Sea of Japan bringing heavy sea-effect snow to parts of Japan, and in some areas breaking all-time 24-hour snowfall records.Shumarinai recorded 77 cm (30 inches) of snow over the past 24 hours, setting its new all-time 24-hour snowfall record. Meanwhile, Nayoro registered 60 cm (24 inches), setting its new 24-hour snowfall record for the month of November.Snow is expected to continue falling through the end of the week.
Heavy snow and blizzards hit northeastern China -- China's northeastern provinces are enduring the country's third cold wave of the season since Saturday, November 20, 2021, with heavy snow and blizzards sweeping the region.The most aggressive phase of the event hit the provinces of Heilongjiang and Jilin on Monday, November 22. Schools and kindergartens were temporarily closed in Harbin, Jilin and other cities. 22 highways in Heilongjiang have been sealed off and flights were canceled, CGTN reports.1Snow accumulation over the period has reached record-high levels in some places in Heilongjiang.As much as 42 cm (16.5 inches) of snow has already accumulated in the eastern city of Jiamusi.A significant coldwave affected China during the first week of November, bringing the first major snowstorm of the season to much of the country's northern regions, including the capital Beijing.2Record snowstorms have affected 58 000 agricultural facilities in northeast Liaoning Province alone. The province has witnessed extremely heavy snowstorms, rainfall, cold wave and strong winds from November 7 to 9. The storms damaged more than 37 000 ha (91 500 acres) of cropland in 58 000 facilities and affected a total of 4 836 livestock farms.3Local authorities said they are rushing to ensure power and food supply while repairing damages in a region heavily affected by rolling power outages in September 2021.China's coal crisis deepened mid-October as first cold weather of the season swept in from the north, causing coal prices to surge to new record highs.Power rationing has already been in place in at least 17 of mainland China's more than 30 regions since September, forcing some factories to suspend production and disrupting supply chains.4
Extreme winds hit parts of UK, pushing Arctic air towards Europe (video, animations) Powerful winds brought by Storm Arwen affected a wide swathe of the United Kingdom on November 26 and 27, 2021, leaving as many as 143 000 customers without power. The storm is now pushing frigid Arctic air toward Europe and bringing snow to Spain. As expected, the storm brought powerful winds, heavy rain, and snow falling and settling on some roads across southern England and the Midlands on Saturday. The strongest gusts were recorded in Brizlee Wood, Northumberland at 158 km/h (98 mph), Berry Head, Devon at 148 km/h (92 mph), and Orlock Head, County Down at 140 km/h (87 mph).1 As many as 80 000 customers were left without power in Scotland, with the vast majority of the outages concentrating in Moray, Aberdeenshire, and Angus, according to Scottish and Southern Electricity Network. The UK Northern Power Grid reported outages for 55 000 customers, mainly in Northumberland, County Durham, and Tyne and Wear. There were also some outages in Northern Ireland.2 About 120 lorries became stuck in the snow near Rochdale while one man died after a tree struck his car in Antrim, Northern Ireland. The UK Met Office added a rare red weather warning for wind to existing amber and yellow wind warnings on November 26, with coastal areas on the east coast of Scotland and the northeast of England set to see the most disruptive winds. Arwen is expected to shift away into the continent later on Saturday, bringing snow to parts of Spain and cold Arctic air to the rest of Europe. Heavy snow has already fallen over Valladolid and Palencia, Castilla y León, on November 26. The region can expect as much as 35 cm (14 inches) of snow in areas above 800 and 1 000 m (2 600 - 3 280 feet) today.
La Niña established in the tropical Pacific - La Niña part of a cycle known as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has developed in the Pacific Ocean, the Australian Bureau of Meteorology announced on November 23, 2021. Consequently, BOM's ENSO Outlook has been raised to LA NIÑA. Climate models suggest this La Niña will be short-lived, persisting until the late southern hemisphere summer or early autumn 2022. La Niña events increase the chance of above-average rainfall across much of northern and eastern Australia during summer.Several indicators of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) now show clear La Niña patterns. Sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific are close to La Niña thresholds, with climate model outlooks expecting them to cool further. In the atmosphere, cloud and wind patterns are typical of La Niña, indicating the atmosphere is now responding to, and reinforcing, the changes observed in the ocean.1The negative Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is approaching its end, with oceanic index values in the neutral range. However, cloud and wind patterns across the eastern Indian Ocean suggest some IOD influence remains. All models indicate the IOD will remain neutral for the coming months, consistent with its typical seasonal cycle. A negative IOD increases the chances of above-average spring rainfall for much of southern and eastern Australia.The Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) is currently over the Maritime Continent region at weak to moderate strength. The MJO is forecast to progress eastwards across the Maritime Continent and into the western Pacific over the coming fortnight, increasing the chances of above-average rainfall across northern Australia and the Maritime Continent, to Australia's north.The Southern Annular Mode (SAM) has generally been positive for several weeks. It is forecast to remain at positive levels to the end of the year. A positive SAM during summer typically brings wetter weather to eastern parts of Australia, but drier than average conditions for western Tasmania.Dr. Andrew Watkins, BOM's Head of Operational Climate Services, said that typically during La Niña events, rainfall becomes focused in the western tropical Pacific, leading to wetter than normal period for eastern, northern and central parts of Australia.2 "La Niña also increases the chance of cooler than average daytime temperatures for large parts of Australia and can increase the number of tropical cyclones that form," Watkins said. "La Niña is also associated with earlier first rains of the northern wet season, as we've observed across much of tropical Australia this year. "The last significant La Niña was 2010 - 12. This strong event saw large impacts across Australia, including Australia’s wettest two-year periods on record, and widespread flooding."La Niña also occurred during spring and summer of 2020-21. Back-to-back La Niña events are not unusual, with around half of all past events returning for a second year." This year's event is not predicted to be as strong as the 2010-12 event and may even be weaker than in 2020-21 La Niña event.
La Ni̱a to batter Australia with rain over the summer in a wet and windy holiday period РCNN -- Australians are bracing for a wet and windy summer for a second year in a row as meteorologists said Tuesday that a La Ni̱a weather event had formed in the Pacific Ocean.La Ni̱a is expected to impact the country's north, center and east, including its biggest city, Sydney, during the Southern Hemisphere's late spring and early summer, possibly even as late as autumn, the Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) said.Meteorologists around the world, including Australia, have warned for months that La Ni̱a conditions were forming in the Pacific Ocean, and Tuesday's announcement means parts of the country are on alert for potential flooding and an uptick in tropical cyclones."In terms of tropical cyclones, for La Ni̱a, we do tend to see more than average -- probably about a 65% chance of seeing more than the average number of 11 tropical cyclones," the bureau's head of operational climate services, Andrew Watkins, said at a press conference.The same parts of the country already have wet soil, full rivers and high catchments from long spells of rain. "Any further rainfall raises the risk of widespread flooding, typically in southeastern Australia," he said.The news puts a dampener on plans for millions of Australians planning local beach holidays over the Christmas summer period, many of whom have only recently emerged from lockdowns durung the pandemic.
La Niña: Is California heading into another dry winter? - You may have seen it on social media: This is a La Niña year, so California won’t get any rain this winter and the severe drought is only going to get worse. Right? Maybe not. Although that’s a common belief, it’s not supported by past history. The reality is that a lot depends on where you live. “The message most people get about La Niña seems to be biased by Southern California,” said Jan Null, a meteorologist with Golden Gate Weather Services in Half Moon Bay. “There is a really good connection between La Niña and drier-than-normal weather in Southern California. But in Northern California, it’s a coin flip.” Null, a former lead forecaster with the National Weather Service, has spent years tracking the amount of rainfall California receives every winter and looking for trends. Since 1950, there have been 23 winters with La Niña conditions, his records show. Although some were dry, like last year or 1976-77, some also were very wet, such as the winter of 2016-17, when relentless atmospheric river storms caused the near-failure of Oroville Dam. Rainfall that winter ended the state’s previous drought and prompted widespread flooding in downtown San Jose.The average rainfall over those 23 years was 93% of normal.Similarly, the region farther north, where California’s largest reservoirs are located, including Shasta, Oroville, Trinity and Folsom, has received 97% of normal rainfall, on average, in La Niña years. And the rugged coast near the California-Oregon border has received an average of 103% of normal rainfall during La Niña years.So why does the stubborn belief persist that La Niña guarantees dry weather? The farther south one goes, the drier it has been in La Niña years.Null’s data shows that La Niña years have brought only 79% of normal rainfall, on average, to the Los Angeles-San Diego area.“Fortunately the state’s biggest reservoirs are not in Southern California,” he said. The engineers who built California’s largest reservoirs in the 1940s, ’50s and ’60s didn’t have 70 years of precise climate data, precise satellite images and computer weather models. They had slide rules and hand-drawn blueprints. But they did know from previous generations which watersheds of the state tended to deliver the most rain or melting snow, and that’s where they built many of the big dams to catch the water for cities and farms. Many of those reservoirs have fallen to very low levels as Northern California has received less rain in the past two years than any two-year period since 1976-77.On Friday, Shasta Lake, the state’s largest reservoir, was just 24% full. Oroville Lake, the second-largest, was 29% full. The third-largest, Trinity Lake, in Trinity County, was 29% full.Several rare, heavy storms in October got this winter season off to a very promising start, water experts say. But because of the extremely dry conditions, due in part to hotter-than-normal weather exacerbated by climate change, much of the rain soaked into the ground and didn’t run into reservoirs.
California Utility Starts Cutting Power as Wind Raises Fire Risk - -- The largest utility in Southern California began shutting off power in the mountains near Los Angeles as strong winds raised wildfire danger, marking the second year in a row that parts of the region will spend Thanksgiving in the dark. Edison International’s Southern California utility cut off electricity to 465 homes and businesses in San Bernardino County Wednesday to avoid having live wires topple over and spark blazes as a wind storm bore down on the drought-stricken region. By Thursday, nearly 200,000 customer accounts -- or about 600,000 people -- could lose service in the regions around Los Angeles and San Diego. Power companies in California have taken to switching off electric lines in advance of powerful winds after a series of deadly wildfires were sparked by their equipment. It’s just one of the ways in which years of drought are reshaping life in the Golden State, home to about 40 million people. Last year, Southern California Edison cut power to more than 20,600 homes and businesses on Thanksgiving Day, at a time when many people were sheltering at home due to the worsening coronavirus pandemic. Dry winds swept Southern California starting Wednesday and are expected to continue through Friday, raising the risk of dangerous fire conditions, the National Weather Service said. A red-flag fire warning has been posted from Santa Barbara to the border with Mexico from Wednesday through the day on Friday, and the U.S. Storm Prediction Center forecasts the situation will reach critical levels Wednesday and Thursday. Any fire that starts could spread quickly. Edison warned that more than 150,000 homes and businesses could lose electricity, while Sempra’s San Diego Gas & Electric could switch off power to more than 42,000. Service will be restored after the companies survey their power lines for wind damage. Across California, 8,367 fires have charred nearly 3.1 million acres (1.3 million hectares) of state and federal land this year, burning more than 3,600 buildings and killing three people, according to the California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection. The fire risk is made worse because all of the state is currently gripped by drought, according to the U.S. Drought Monitor.
State of crisis and regional emergency declared for the island of Vulcano, Italy - The Sicilian government has declared a state of crisis and regional emergency for the island of Vulcano. The decision was made on November 19, 2021, due to increased volcanic activity at the volcano. The declaration will allow activation of all the necessary initiatives to guarantee the operational response in the area, the mitigation of risks and the assistance to the population affected by the progress of volcanic phenomena in recent weeks.1 The volcano remains on "Yellow" alert, declared by the National Civil Protection Department on October 1.2 The mayor of Lipari has announced an ordinance that prohibits citizens from staying in Porto di Levante overnight due to very high gas concentrations. This is a popular part of the island with famous natural hot mud pools. The president of the Sicilian Region, Nello Musumeci, said he is closely following the situation which appears to be totally unprecedented, requiring the search for alternative accommodation for about 250 people. "The further increase in the emission of toxic gases recorded in recent days by the National Institute of Geophysics and Volcanology, requires, in fact, the adoption of urgent precautionary measures to protect public and private safety, including the monitoring of phenomena and gases, the prohibition of areas at risk and the possible evacuation of the population from their homes," Musumeci said. The Regional Civil Protection Department, led by Salvo Cocina, asked officials to raise the operational phase for the volcano from Yellow (attention) to Orange (early warning) and to increase monitoring of lethal gases.
NASA mission to crash spacecraft into asteroid to redirect its path launches this week -NASA is gearing up to test a technique that may one day be used to defend Earth from an incoming asteroid. The space agency plans to launch a spacecraft Tuesday night that will deliberately slam into an asteroid more than 6 million miles away at speeds upwards of 15,000 miles per hour to observe how the asteroid’s trajectory shifts. While the asteroid poses absolutely no threat to humanity, the goal of the test mission is to determine whether intentionally crashing an object into an asteroid is an effective way of changing its course, should an asteroid ever set its sights on Earth. The mission, dubbed the Double Asteroid Redirection Test (DART), will utilize what NASA calls the kinetic impactor technique. DART’s target will be a binary asteroid dubbed Didymos, which is an asteroid system made up of a 780-meter asteroid and a smaller “moonlet” measuring 160 meters across. Using cameras and autonomous navigation, the spacecraft will deliberately crash into the moonlet, called Dimorphos, at a speed of 6.6 kilometers per second, according to NASA. “For a mission like DART to work, it’s going to be important for us to discover any potentially hazardous asteroids in plenty of time to give us ample opportunity to identify the hazards and to develop the mitigation techniques so that we can respond appropriately,” Lori Glaze, director of NASA’s Planetary Science Division, said during a news conference Sunday.
Scientist predicts Earth will develop rings like Saturn - As more and more debris accumulates in space and surrounds Earth’s orbit, one researcher believes our planet will eventually develop rings made completely of space junk.Jake Abbott, a robotics professor at the University of Utah, told The Salt Lake Tribune that “Earth is on course to have its own rings. They’ll just be made of junk.”Abbott was part of a team of researchers that published a report last month, which detailed how nonmagnetic space junk can conduct electricity. According to an analysis by The Tribune, Abbott and fellow researchers believed to have found a way by using controlled force and torque to slow spinning objects, move them around and eventually collect them. Abbott believes the findings could relate to collecting space junk orbiting around Earth’s atmosphere.Space junk, or known as space debris, is a growing problem with NASA reporting that there are more than 27,000 pieces of space junk being tracked by the Department of Defense’s global Space Surveillance Network (SSN) sensors. NASA also said that there is likely much more debris in space that’s too small to be tracked but still large enough to threaten human spaceflight and robotic missions. Space debris travels at extremely high speeds — approximately 15,700 mph in low Earth orbit — so even a tiny piece of orbital debris can impact a spacecraft and create big problems.With a growing commercial space industry, the volume of space junk is expected to grow significantly. Elon Musk’s space company SpaceX has carried nearly 900 orbital objects to space this year, according to The Verge. Amazon also has plans to send more than 3,000 satellite constellations to Earth’s low-orbit to provide internet broadband services. The former Trump administration put together a national orbital debris research and development plan that sought to reduce space junk by recommending the implementation of deliberate spacecraft designs that limit the generation of new space debris. It also recommended improving how the U.S. tracks and characterizes space junk and urged solutions on how to remove space debris and repurpose it for a productive use.It’s not clear if the Trump administration’s report was enacted but the problem of space debris continues on, while the likelihood of Earth developing rings made of space junk, similar to those of Saturn, Jupiter, Uranus and Neptune, isn’t completely clear either. Some companies are hoping to help address the issue of space junk like Astroscale, according to Forbes. The Japan-based company has begun construction of a prototype spacecraft that will test out strategies in space that remove debris in orbit.
‘Dirty industries’ a strain on unsuspecting NC neighbors - When Anita Cunningham relocated from eastern Maryland to Lumberton in 2018 to help her sister care for their ailing father, she thought it was a good time to embark on a new chapter in her life. But the timing could not have been worse for the retiree. Three days after she arrived, so did Hurricane Florence, a Category 4 storm with 130 mile per hour winds and more than 30 inches of rain. Downed trees from prior storms exacerbated flooding of the Lumber River, the primary drinking water source for much of Robeson County. Cunningham spent four days trapped inside with no electricity and water up to her knees, unsure if she would make it out. “Two or three minutes away, the area was flooded, and people had to be rescued by boat,” she recalls. “I had never experienced a weather event like that. It was life-changing. I thought ‘there’s got to be a better way.’” The storm changed Cunningham from someone who never thought much about climate change or environmental justice to someone for whom these were defining issues. “I always voted but I had never been involved in environmental activism or in politics,” she said. “Coming to Robeson County, I got a chance to see how all of that plays out and how it’s all connected. It was more impactful because of the degree of harm that was being inflicted on the community that I live in.” Cunningham quickly learned about what she calls “dirty industries” like hog and poultry farms that populate places like Lumberton. She earned a peer support specialist certificate and began organizing to draw attention to the impact of deforestation and pollution on the state’s poorest communities. Cunningham is now program director of the Robeson County Cooperative for Sustainable Development, a multiracial team of organizers working to challenge the cumulative and disproportionate impact of climate change in communities of color.
Build Back Better Act Passes House With Most Ambitious Climate Provisions in U.S. History -- The U.S. House of Representatives on Friday passed the Build Back Better Act, which includes the largest-ever federal investment in fighting the climate crisis. The $2.2 trillion spending package includes $555 billion in spending to encourage the transition away fromfossil fuels, The New York Times reported, but the legislation still needs to pass the Senate to make a difference.The climate spending promised in the bill is less than the original $600 billion in the original plan, but still makes up the largest spending category in the bill, CNBC reported. It is not enough on its own to fulfill President Joe Biden's promise, made at the COP26 climate conference in Glasgow this month, to reduce U.S. greenhouse gas emissions by half of 2005 levels by 2030, but it is still the most ambitious piece of climate legislation in U.S. history, The New York Times reported."The Build Back Better World is going to show that we can grow our economies, fight climate change, and leave a better, cleaner, more livable planet for all of our children," Biden said in Glasgow, as CNBC reported. The bill's important climate provisions include:
- 10-year tax credits to incentivize investments in renewable energy like wind and solar.
- Raising the electric vehicle tax credit to $12,500 for cars made in unionized, U.S. factories.
- Offering consumer rebates for switching to clean energy.
- Creating a Civilian Climate Corp to provide employment and protect public lands.
- Money for natural climate solutions like coastal restoration and forest management.
Another key component of the bill is environmental justice; it includes $105 billion for reducing pollution in low-income communities, Common Dreams reported.
Biden keeps Jerome Powell. What it means for climate - In nominating Jerome Powell yesterday for a second term as Federal Reserve chair, President Biden chose the conventional route — and in the process left many climate activists and advocates disappointed. But observers said it’s remarkable in itself that climate played a role in the debate on who should lead one of the most powerful financial institutions in the United States. And they urged Biden to fill other open positions at the Federal Reserve with climate-focused economists. “Powell’s failures on regulation, climate, and ethics make the still-vacant position of vice chair of supervision critically important,” said Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) in a statement. “This position must be filled by a strong regulator with a proven track record of tough and effective enforcement — and it needs to be done quickly.” Biden’s decision to ask Powell to return as chair represents, in one sense, a return to tradition. It revives a long-followed practice — abandoned by the Trump administration — in which presidents retain their predecessor’s Fed chairs to ensure policy continuity and central bank independence. But it also runs counter to what progressives and climate hawks have said for months: that Biden should ditch Powell — who is often described as a laggard on climate issues — and elevate Fed Governor Lael Brainard, who holds a doctorate in economics and is an outspoken proponent of climate risk mitigation (Climatewire, Dec. 21, 2020). Instead, Biden said he would tap Brainard to be the Fed’s next vice chair, Powell’s second in command. Biden said both nominees’ leadership during the COVID-19 pandemic — when the nation was “hemorrhaging jobs” and financial markets were panicking — helped drive his decision. “I’ve said before, we can’t just return to where we were before the pandemic, we need to build our economy back better, and I’m confident that Chair Powell and Dr. Brainard’s focus on keeping inflation low, prices stable, and delivering full employment will make our economy stronger than ever before,” Biden said in a statement.
Climate Injustice at Glasgow Cop-Out - The planet is already 1.1°C warmer than in pre-industrial times. July 2021 was the hottest monthever recorded in 142 years. Despite the pandemic slowdown, 2020 was the hottest year so far, ending the warmest decade (2011-2020) ever.Summing up widespread views of the recently concluded Glasgow climate summit, former Irish President Mary Robinson observed, “People will see this as a historically shameful dereliction of duty,… nowhere near enough to avoid climate disaster”.A hundred civil society groups lambasted the Glasgow outcome: “Instead of a multilateral agreement that puts forward a clear path to address the climate crisis, we are left with a document that takes us further down the path of climate injustice.”Even if countries fulfil their Paris Agreement pledges, global warming is now expected to rise by 2.7°C from pre-industrial levels by century’s end. Authoritative projections suggest that if all COP26 long-term pledges and targets are met, the planet will still warm by 2.1℃ by 2100.The United Nations Environment Programme suggests a strong chance of global warming disastrously rising over 1.5°C in the next two decades. Earlier policy targets – to halve global carbon emissions by 2030, and reach ‘net-zero’ emissions by 2050 – are now recognized as inadequate.The Glasgow UN Framework Convention on Climate Change 26th Conference of Parties (COP26) was touted as the world’s ‘last best hope’ to save the planet. Many speeches cited disturbing trends, but national leaders most responsible for greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions offered little.Thus, developing countries were betrayed yet again. Despite contributing less to accelerating global warming, they are suffering its worst consequences. They have been left to pay most bills for ‘losses and damages’, adaptation and mitigation.Glasgow’s two biggest hopes were not realized: renewing targets for 2030 aligned with limiting warming to 1.5℃, and a clear strategy to mobilize the grossly inadequate US$100bn yearly – promised by rich country leaders before the Copenhagen COP in 2009 – to help finance developing countries’ efforts.An exasperated African legislator dismissed the Glasgow Leaders’ Declaration on Forests and Land Use as an “empty pledge”, as “yet another example of Western disingenuousness … taking on the role of ‘white saviour’” while exploiting the African rain forest.
COP26 climate deal: 'E no fit save us from drowning' - BBC News Pidgin - Di climate deal wey world leaders bin sign for Glasgow plan to reduce world reliance on coal. And dem promise more money to helep poorer kontries to cope wit impacts of warming planet. Pipo wey dey Campaign for frontline of climate change be follow BBC yarn how dem reason di whole arrangee. Dem no get any shikini belief about wetin come out of di summit, dey passionately explain why dem dey fear say political agreements no dey enough to save dia house and culture. Elizabeth Kité be one youth leader for Nuku'alofa, Tonga. Di deal no do enough to save her house wey dey di Pacific islands from drowning, she tok. How dia Island go survive never dey sure. She say di summit be stage for big kontries to "flex how much dem fit pay small nations". She wan hear make rich kontries to accept di responsibility for historic greenhouse gas emissions. "But dem dey yarn like say to promise money be favour for us - no be so," she tok. She turn emotional when she dey describe how proud she dey to watch Pacific Island negotiator fight hard for di summit. Last week Foreign Minister Simon Kofe of Tuvalu bin do press conference where e stand for sea, to explain how di sea levels dey rise. Elizabeth Kité no think say di deal fit go far enough to helep kontries like her own. "We be friendly pipo and we dey usually very peaceful. E no dey natural say make we come out so strong - and i no dey happy say di deal no show how hard we don try," she yarn. She dey frustrated sake of wetin she feel as no quick and sharp action: "E come be like say rich kontries dey say, 'Yes we go let di island die off and we go try to figure something out along di way.'" But she dey see sign of progress. Dis be di first time fossil fuel and coal go dey included for di texts. And she say di agreement to tok about separate money for loss and damage - money to helep kontries pay for di damage wey climate change cause and dem no fit adapt to - na another positive step. Bangladesh: 'Youth finally get voice' Sohanur Rahman wey be 25 years , be founding member of Bangladesh Friday for Future movement. E dey lead young pipo as dem grow up for low-lying kontri wey di climate change too affect and feel di serious effect now. As dem sama di agreement , e say e feel say youth dey recognised for di first time for COP. But e bin conclude say "di end result be nothing".
Biggest-Ever Carbon Capture Project Facing Midwest Opposition -- What’s touted as the world’s largest carbon capture and sequestration project is facing headwinds from farmers and environmentalists even as John Deere & Co. and New York financiers are investing in the $4.5 billion endeavor. The Midwest Carbon Express is a privately financed, 2,000 mile-long pipeline network. It will collect carbon dioxide emissions at dozens of Midwest ethanol facilities and inject the emissions into underground porous rock in North Dakota, where project supporters say the emissions will be trapped forever. The effort will safely store up to 10 million tons of carbon dioxide each year, slashing the region’s emissions from ethanol plants, according to Summit Agriculture Group, the project’s owner. Spread across five states, the project would create create as many as 17,000 temporary construction jobs and hundreds of permanent ones. Such projects are necessary because the U.S. can’t immediately shut down all carbon-emitting facilities, including coal-fired power plants, and because there aren’t enough renewable energy sources are available to replace them, proponents said. Sequestration is needed to meet the Paris Agreement’s climate goals, they said. “The science and the math are clear: We’re going to have to continue to burn fossils for the next 30 or 50 years, something like that, just to maintain reliability across the grid,” said Matt Fry, state and regional policy manager for the Great Plains Institute, an energy solutions organization that promotes carbon capture. “So the question is, how do you do that in a carbon-neutral or carbon-negative manner?” Fry asked. Opponents contend coal-fired power plants, regardless of sequestration’s potential, should be shut down because their emissions harm the environment. They also say it could fail to achieve the level of reductions claimed by project advocates and boost fossil-fuel use by using carbon dioxide to enhance the extraction process. “We will fight these pipelines they same way we fought [the controversial Keystone XL] pipeline: using all-of-the-above organizing, including litigation,” Jane Kleeb, a spokeswoman for project opponent Bold Nebraska, said in an email.
Biden Faces Tougher Sell to Manchin as Coal Hits 12-Year High – Bloomberg - Central Appalachia coal prices at a 12-year high could give West Virginia a boost just as President Joe Biden needs to persuade its Senator Joe Manchin to support a $2 trillion tax-and-spending package that includes climate-change measures. Biden’s Build Back Better package now moves to the Senate after the House passed it on Friday. Manchin, a West Virginia Democrat, is at the center of negotiations for the proposal that includes spending on child and elder care, but also initiatives to reduce dependence on coal by investing in clean-energy technologies. Progressives want ambitious spending and environmental regulations to meet climate goals.
Built-In Advantages Help Drive Shift To Renewable Diesel --The U.S. is poised for a massive build-out in renewable diesel production capacity — a boom spurred by capacity rationalization amongst traditional refineries, increasingly supportive government policies, and a big push by ESG-minded refiners wanting to reduce the carbon footprint of their operations. It also hasn’t hurt that while renewable diesel is produced from used cooking oil, tallow, and other renewable feedstocks, it meets or exceeds the fuel specifications of traditional ultra-low sulfur diesel and thus is considered a “drop-in” replacement for ULSD — there’s no “blend wall” that limits its use. In today’s RBN blog, we discuss highlights from our new Drill Down report, which looks at why renewable diesel is a hot topic, what we can learn from California’s Low Carbon Fuel Standards program, and how much new renewable diesel capacity is in the works.Just about every refiner is thinking about renewable diesel these days, and it was a key topic in our recent School of Energy, and for good reason — there are the large financial incentives provided by California’s Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS) and the U.S. Biodiesel Tax Credit, which can make renewable diesel production highly profitable. The U.S. does not have a federal LCFS policy in place. However, at the national level we do have the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS), which mandates a Renewable Volume Obligation (RVO; see Money for Nothing for more info on RVOs) that must be met every year. [The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) said November 18 that it would extend deadlines for refiners to comply with RFS obligations from 2019 and 2020. It has yet to issue RFS rules for 2021 or 2022, or volumes for 2023, and has not announced decisions on potential exemptions for small refineries.] Driven by these factors, there’s a lot of renewable diesel production capacity under construction or on the drawing board: From greenfield projects to expansions of existing renewable diesel refineries to conversions of old-school refineries to make renewable diesel and coprocessing within existing facilities. Renewable diesel, like biodiesel, is a biomass-based fuel that can be burned in diesel engines or used as heating oil for homes. In distinguishing between those two similar-sounding diesel alternatives, there are unique aspects of renewable diesel that give it an edge over biodiesel as a substitute for petroleum-based ULSD. Most important perhaps is that renewable diesel meets or exceeds the fuel specifications of ULSD, and is thus considered a “drop-in” replacement, whereas biodiesel (FAME, or fatty acid methyl ester) is typically limited to blends of 5% (a diesel/biodiesel blend known as B5) to 20% (a.k.a. B20). In fact, unlike biodiesel, which has poor cold-flow properties and runs a risk of containing contaminants, renewable diesel generally has a higher cetane value (an octane-like measurement of diesel and diesel alternatives; see That’s the Good Stuff) than ULSD, promoting more complete combustion and higher engine efficiency, and has comparable cold-flow properties to petroleum-based diesel.
Electric car chargers to be required in new homes in England -British Prime Minister Boris Johnson on Monday announced that all new homes and buildings in England will be required to have electric car chargers installed beginning next year. The legislation, which Johnson announced at the annual Confederation of British Industry (CBI) conference, will install up to 145,000 extra charging points throughout Europe every year, according to a statement from the prime minister’s office. The requirement will also apply to buildings undergoing renovation. Facilities that are left with more than 10 parking spaces will be compelled to install electric vehicle charging points. The new venture comes in the lead-up to 2030, when the United Kingdom will stop selling new petrol and diesel cars.
Oil giant Shell strikes deal to buy power from 'world's largest offshore wind farm' - Shell said Wednesday it had signed a deal to purchase power from a development dubbed "the world's largest offshore wind farm." The 15-year power purchase agreement relates to 240 megawatts from Dogger Bank C, the third and final phase of the 3.6 gigawatt Dogger Bank Wind Farm, which will be located in waters off the coast of northeast England. The agreement builds upon a previous deal to purchase 480 MW from Dogger Bank A and B, meaning that its combined offtake will amount to 720 MW. On Wednesday, Dogger Bank Wind Farm announced it had also agreed 15-year power purchase agreements for Dogger Bank C with Centrica Energy Marketing & Trading, SSE Energy Supply Limited and Danske Commodities. "The commercial power agreements provide a route to sell the green energy generated by the third phase of the wind farm into the GB electricity market when it enters commercial operation," it said. Dogger Bank A and B represents a joint venture between Equinor, SSE Renewables and Eni, with the companies holding stakes of 40%, 40% and 20% respectively. This month, it was announced Eni would also acquire a 20% stake in Dogger Bank C, with Equinor and SSE Renewables each holding on to a share of 40%. This deal is slated for completion in the first quarter of 2022. "Once the three phases are complete, which is expected by March 2026, Dogger Bank will be the largest offshore wind farm in the world," Dogger Bank Wind Farm says. Despite making deals related to renewable energy, Shell remains a major player in oil and gas. It has pledged to become a net-zero emissions energy firm by 2050.
Company plans to grind wind turbine blades near Earlham - A Bondurant company plans to use large wood chippers to grind old wind turbine blades into bits to recycle them, but its work site near Earlham has drawn scorn and pushback from anti-turbine residents in Madison County.Renewablade has tested the grinding process on three blades at a site near U.S. Interstate Highway 80 about two miles northeast of Earlham, where another company uses the chippers to make mulch from trees.“It was successful, absolutely,” said Brian Meng, manager of Renewablade.He said the blades can be broken into pieces and fed into the chippers. The result: small chunks of fiberglass that can be used in concrete and other products.Others have struggled to find a way to dispose of the blades, which are made of reinforced fiberglass, often exceed 100 feet in length and are difficult to crush. Notably, a Washington state-based companyaccumulated about 1,300 blades at three sites in Iowa in recent years, where they have languished despite orders from the Iowa Department of Natural Resources to dispose of them.The fear of a similar turbine graveyard near Earlham — along with environmental concerns about the recycling process — led some residents to attempt to block the plans. “If they can’t make it work then they just walk off the property and leave it,” said Heather Stancil, an Earlham resident who won election last year to the Madison County Board of Supervisors on an anti-wind-turbine platform. “I don’t want to be stuck with hundreds of thousands of dollars of a cleanup bill.”
Miami planned to end natural gas hookups to help cut emissions. Then TECO asked them not to - On Earth Day, Miami Mayor Francis Suarez stood in front of City Hall and announced an “unequivocal promise” to his residents: to slash the city’s greenhouse gas emissions to stave off the worst effects of climate change on the vulnerable coastal city. The plan, Miami Forever Carbon Neutral, had bold strategies to boost electric cars, make buildings more efficient and plaster the city’s buildings with solar power. It had also undergone some key changes in the days before its release, prompted by a natural gas company that stood to lose customers and business if the city went forward with its plans to cut down on fossil fuel emissions.In emails obtained by the Miami Herald via public records request, a representative from TECO People’s Gas called the policies “problematic for our industry” and suggested alternate language the city should use instead.In response, the city removed the offending policies and watered down its goals to cut down on natural gas. Miami’s former Chief Resilience Officer Alan Dodd emailed the TECO representative back noting that there were “a lot of revisions to be more accommodating, while still focusing on long term net zero goal.”
Extreme weather, low hydro and fuel shortages could threaten grid in multiple regions this winter: NERC - There are "elevated" grid reliability risks this winter for regions of the United States that are vulnerable to extreme weather, natural gas supply disruptions and low hydro conditions, the North American Electric Reliability Corp. said Thursday in its 2021-22 Winter Reliability Assessment. The threat is most severe in the Electric Reliability Council of Texas territory, where electricity demand could outstrip capacity reserves by more than 37% in the most extreme scenarios. Should peak demand or generator outages dramatically exceed forecasts, NERC warned "energy emergencies" are possible in the Southwest Power Pool and Midcontinent Independent System Operator territories, along with Texas. California and New England have limited gas infrastructure, and prolonged periods of cold temperatures could result in curtailments to generators, NERC found. Other Western areas, beyond California, are facing drought conditions which could reduce electricity available for transfers between different parts of the country. NERC produces two broad reliabilty assessments every year, ahead of the summer and winter peaking seasons, to evaluate generation resources and transmission system adequacy. But following extreme weather in February that knocked out power to millions in Texas and the Midwest, the reliability agency has altered its approach to the reports. The latest iteration is a "step change" in how NERC conducts the assessments, John Moura, NERC's director of reliability assessment and system analysis, said in a Thursday call with reporters. "While in prior assessments we were focused on capacity, normal climate and generation outages, we're now much more focused on energy needs and the ability to withstand extreme weather conditions. ... The question is less about whether there's enough capacity," Moura said, and more about whether the winter energy plan is "resilient to extreme weather, and other extreme conditions." Utilities across NERC's system have retired more than 70 GW of baseload generation in the last decade, Moura noted, and have replaced it with new gas and variable generation resources. "And of course, those have increasingly become weather dependent," he said. "Extreme weather exacerbates the challenges of that transforming grid in really unique ways. And this transition that we're seeing really requires the electric industry to reconsider how we plan and operate the system." NERC has identified reliability risk as being "elevated in regions that are especially vulnerable to extreme weather" or where gas supply or drought conditions could impact generators, Mark Olson, NERC's manager of reliability assessments, said during the Thursday conference call. "We are advising the industry to ensure the readiness of their operating plans to manage potential supply shortfalls, and to take proactive steps for generator readiness, fuel availability, and sustained operations,"
Texas prepares for a crypto migration - Texas, already home to the most vulnerable power grid in the U.S., is about to be hit by a surge in demand for electricity that's twice the size of Austin's.An army of cryptocurrency miners heading to the state for its cheap power and laissez-faire regulation is forecast to send demand soaring by as much as 5,000 megawatts over the next two years. The crypto migration to Texas has been building for months, but the sheer volume of power those miners will need -- two times more than the capital city of almost 1 million people consumed in all of 2020 -- is only now becoming clear.The boom comes as the electrical system is already under strain from an expanding population and robust economy.Even before the new demand comes online, the state's grid has proven to be lethally unreliable. Catastrophic blackouts in February plunged millions into darkness for days, and, ultimately, led to at least 210 deaths.Proponents like U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz and Gov. Greg Abbott, both Republicans, say cryptocurrency miners are ultimately good for the grid, since they say the miners can soak up excess clean power and, when needed, can voluntarily throttle back in seconds to help avert blackouts.But it raises the question of what these miners will do when the state's electricity demand inevitably outstrips supply: Will they adhere to an honor system of curtailing their power use, especially when the Bitcoin price is itself so high, or will it mean even more pressure on an overwhelmed grid?"There's nobody looking at the scale of potential investment in cryptocurrency and its energy demand over the next couple of years and trying to account for that in some sort of strategic plan," said Adrian Shelley, director of the Texas office of the consumer advocacy and lobbying group Public Citizen, which has sharply criticized the vulnerabilities of the state's unregulated power market.Texas is rolling out the red carpet for cryptocurrency miners as one-time leader China has banned the industry. Mining for cryptocurrency requires huge amounts of power, complicating Beijing's efforts to curb greenhouse-gas emissions and shore up energy supplies ahead of the winter.
Coal-fired power plants in Pa. to close after new wastewater rule - Climate change isn’t what’s driving some U.S. coal-fired power plants to shut down. It’s the expense of stricter pollution controls on their wastewater. Dozens of plants nationwide plan to stop burning coal this decade to comply with more stringent federal wastewater guidelines, according to state regulatory filings, as the industry continues moving away from the planet-warming fossil fuel to make electricity. The new wastewater rule requires power plants to clean coal ash and toxic heavy metals such as mercury, arsenic and selenium from plant wastewater before it is dumped into streams and rivers. The rule is expected to affect 75 coal-fired power plants nationwide, according to the Environmental Protection Agency. Those plants had an October deadline to tell their state regulators how they planned to comply, with options that included upgrading their pollution-control equipment or retiring their coal-fired generating units by 2028. The national impact of the wastewater rule is still coming into focus, but at least 26 plants in 14 states said they will stop burning coal, according to the Sierra Club, which has been tracking state regulatory filings. Twenty-one of the plants intend to shut down, and five indicated they may switch to natural gas, the environmental group said. “The free ride these plants have been getting is ending in a lot of ways,” said Zack Fabish, a Sierra Club lawyer. “And them choosing to retire by 2028 probably reflects the reality that a lot of the subsidies they have been getting in terms of being able to dump their wastewater into the commons, they are not going to be able to do that in the future.” The rule will reduce the discharge of pollutants into the nation’s waterways by about 386 million pounds annually, according to EPA estimates. It’s expected to cost plant operators, collectively, nearly $200 million per year to implement.
Illinois' nuclear power subsidy of $694 million: imperfect compromise - In September, Illinois lawmakers agreed to spend up to $694 million of energy ratepayers' money over the next five years to keep several money-losing nuclear power plants open. Nuclear energy produces no greenhouse gas emissions, meaning it can contribute to lowering carbon emissions. But today's nuclear plants often can't compete on price against cheaper existing sources of energy, particularly natural gas and government-subsidized renewables. The negotiations in Illinois are a microcosm of a larger debate taking place across the country about the role existing nuclear power plants should play in the clean energy future. For two of the nuclear plants at stake, the operator, Exelon, had already filed paperwork with federal regulators to shut them down for financial reasons. Lawmakers agreed to pay to keep the nuclear plants open so that Illinois could meet its clean energy goals, and Exelon agreed to keep two other marginal nuclear plants in the state open as well. The deal is a culmination of a lot of painstaking negotiations and "midwestern practicality," according to Illinois Deputy Governor Christian Mitchell. But not everybody agrees. Illinois gets a much larger percentage of power from nuclear than other states, and it would've taken a massive new investment in renewables to meet the state's clean energy goals. In a sense, Exelon had the state over a barrel. "This is now the second round of such subsidies that Illinois is paying out," explained Steve Cicala, a non-resident scholar at the Energy Policy Institute at the University of Chicago, referring to a previous round included in an energy jobs bill in 2016. "When this runs out, they'll be doing the same 'pay us or the plant gets it' dance."
Ice wall preventing water outflow from Tepco's Fukushima nuclear plant may have partially melted – NHK (Reuters) - An ice wall preventing the outflow of water from Japan's Fukushima Daiichi Power plant operated by Tokyo Electric may have partially melted, broadcaster NHK reported on Friday. The ice wall was built to contain water that may contain traces of radioactive materials from flowing out of the nuclear power plant.
Tepco finds melting of ice wall at Japan's Fukushima Daiichi plant (Reuters) - Tokyo Electric Power Co (Tepco) 9501.T will launch remedial works at the stricken Fukushima Daiichi nuclear plant to strengthen an ice wall intended to halt the flow of groundwater after testing indicated partial melting. The work could begin as early as the start of December, according to a presentation from the plant operator dated Thursday, part of a costly and troubled effort to secure the site following the 2011 earthquake and tsunami. The ice wall is intended to limit the seepage of groundwater into the plant, which has created large amounts of toxic water being stored by Tepco in tanks. Japan plans to release more than 1 million tonnes of water into the sea after treating it. The water contains the radioactive isotope tritium, which cannot be removed.
Seven Athens County protesters face felony charges over Minnesota pipeline protests -- A national campaign launched last week calls on Minnesota officials to drop charges against protestors who attempted to stop an oil pipeline, including seven Athens County individuals facing felony charges. “I’m hoping that the felony charge is dropped, but I feel like I had to do what I did,” said Athens resident, Judy Smucker. “I think about the future of my grandchildren, and I feel like I have a moral obligation to do what I can.”Smucker is among the seven locals facing felony charges for participation in protests designed to block the construction of Embridge Energy’s Line 3, which has since been completed, according to a release from the Canadian company. The pipeline carries tar sands oil and regular crude oil from Alberta to Wisconsin.Protestors argue the pipeline will worsen climate change while violating Native American treaty rights — because spills from the pipeline could adversely impact sensitive areas where Anishinaabe people are guaranteed the right to harvest wild rice, hunt and fish, according to MinnPost. Claudia Sheehan, another Athens County resident facing felony charges due to involvement in the protests, said, “The charges should be dropped because we weren’t trespassing — (Embridge was) trespassing. If we respected our treaties, they wouldn’t have been there.” “Embridge is breaking treaties which are supposed to be the supreme law of the land, yet nothing is being done to the corporation,” Smucker said. “I feel like they’re the ones that should be charged.” As The Athens Messenger previously reported, Sheehan and Smucker are among three local grandmothers who were arrested at the Line 3 protests in July. According to a release from Athens County’s Future Action Network, the grandmothers were arrested for blockading a pipe yard near the Mississippi headwaters in northern Minnesota. Over 1,000 arrests were made during the nine months in which Line 3 was under construction, according to a release from Stop Line 3 activists. Over 700 individuals face charges related to the protests, while over 100 face felony charges. Seven of the 100, including the three grandmothers, are from Athens County. The campaign argues the arrests and charges against protestors were part of a crackdown directly funded by Embridge.The Guardian reported that the Canadian company reimbursed U.S. police $2.4 million for arrests and surveillance of demonstrators.
Groups Say Ohio Needs to Strengthen Rules for Oil and Gas Waste - Public News Service -- Groups say new draft rules proposed by the Ohio Department of Natural Resources (ODNR) do not go far enough to properly regulate oil and gas waste facilities, or injection wells, used to dispose of liquid waste. A hearing is set for Dec. 6. Megan Hunter, senior attorney for Earthjustice, said the rules lack transparency, and fall short of what is necessary to protect human health and the environment, because of loopholes and how much discretion they give to the agency to waive requirements.She argued neither waste facilities nor injection wells are required to be set far enough back from surface water."They can be located within 100 feet of surface waters, within a developed drinking-water well, for example, and the same is true for the injection wells," Hunter outlined. "And that's just not a great enough distance to be protective of surface and groundwater."Hunter noted Ohio receives liquid oil and gas waste from Pennsylvania and West Virginia in addition to its own products. She contended one of the biggest problems with many injection wells is they do not require the waste to be properly characterized, meaning first responders who may be dealing with a leak or a spill might not know what kinds of chemicals or radioactivity they could be facing. Silverio Caggiano, retired battalion chief for the Youngstown Fire Department, said if his team gets a call about a leak, it can be dangerous if they don't know what they could be exposed to. He pointed to what are known as "right-to-know" laws, where companies are required to offer information about what chemicals are used and stored in their facilities. "On a fire-department and first-responder level, the reason why those Right to Know laws are placed in there was so I can prepare for something," Caggiano explained. "If XYZ company is going to put something in there, and they're going to be using this chemical, I have to figure out if I have the ability to detect it and mitigate it." Groups emphasized the new rules require less oversight than current regulations. They urged the ODNR to hold the oil and gas industry accountable by requiring regular reporting and transparency.
Ohio missed out on $1.2 billion plus in severance tax revenue --It is time for Ohio’s oil and gas drilling corporations to pay their fair share. Ohio still has significant untapped reserves of hydrocarbons and their extraction should be subject to a severance tax at the level of other major gas- and oil-producing states.A fair state-level severance tax would help ensure that the exploitation of Ohio’s hydrocarbons funds critical state services responding to the pressing needs of all Ohioans and the prospects of their children. Furthermore, a severance tax permanent fund — sometimes called a legacy fund — like those of other gas-producing states and tribal nations, would go a long way toward a thriving Ohio beyond the ups and downs of the fracking boom.A permanent fund produces a sustainable investment endowment that generates revenue from interest earnings that can be used to finance the needs of a region or state.Over the years there have been several attempts to legislate a fair severance tax in Ohio. In 2015, Republican Gov. John Kasich proposed a 6.5% severance tax on gas and oil production and a 4.5% tax on natural gas liquids.Years earlier, Policy Matters Ohio proposed a flat 5% severance tax on gas and oil and, after certain trigger points, a 2.5% fee toward a legacy fund that could provide long-term benefits despite the volatility of oil and gas markets. However, after an aggressive lobbying campaign from the Ohio Oil and Gas Association and the American Petroleum Institute, lawmakers refused to act.Ohio drilling operators pay a dime per barrel of crude oil and half a nickel per thousand cubic feet of natural gas. This is one of the lowest severance taxes in the country and it means that years of gas and oil production have enriched corporations and drillers but not the communities that host them nor the state that supports them.The promises made by oil and gas corporations never materialized and the Appalachian counties that were supposed to thrive have grown poorer. According to a recent Ohio River Valley Institute report, in the period between 2008 and 2019, gas-producing counties (Belmont, Carroll, Guernsey, Harrison, Jefferson, Monroe and Noble) had a net job loss of 8%, growth in personal incomes lagged state and national averages, and the local population decreased by over 5%. These statistics only scratch the surface of the negative local impacts that have ravaged eastern Ohio in the past decade. All this while the same counties grew, in terms of GDP, five times faster than the state of Ohio and four times faster than the nation as whole. In other words, Ohio’s gas producing counties are being drained of both their natural resources and their economic vitality at the same time.
Ohio energy execs express concerns to Rep. Latta about Line5, supply chain issues - Toledo Blade - U.S. Rep. Bob Latta (R., Bowling Green) spent an hour Monday morning hearing officials from the natural gas and propane industries express concerns about the pandemic-driven supply chain backlog, a shortage of commercial truck drivers, and other issues that could complicate efforts to keep Ohioans warm this winter. But Mr. Latta also made it clear while briefing journalists after the meeting that the ultimate fate of Enbridge’s Line 5 has become a major source of anxiety in Washington as well as the Great Lakes region.“Everybody’s talking about Line 5,” he said. At issue is the degree to which the federal government will exert control over oil and gas pipelines during a time it is trying to get the nation more serious about addressing climate change.With Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau taking the unprecedented move of invoking America’s 1977 treaty with Canada over Line 5, the Biden administration can’t continue to be neutral on the subject, Mr. Latta said, adding he is interested in upcoming diplomatic talks over Line 5 between the leaders of the two countries.Mr. Latta, a member of the House Energy and Commerce Committee, joined U.S. Rep. Tim Walberg (R., Jackson, Mich.) and 11 other congressmen — many of them Michigan Republicans — in signing a Nov. 4 letter to President Biden which implored him to keep the pipeline open. Mr. Walberg’s district includes Michigan’s Monroe and Lenawee counties.On Monday, the DeWine administration announced that Gov. Mike DeWine and Lt. Gov. Jon Husted sent a letter of their own to Mr. Biden, urging him to help keep Line 5 open. The two said that "any disruption in Line 5 operations would have a devastating impact on the economy of Northwest Ohio, further harming industry supply chains, eliminating thousands of good-paying jobs, and increasing the cost of fuel for transportation, heat for homes, and products Americans use every day." Derek Dalling, Ohio Propane Gas Association executive director, told The Blade he believes Line 5 proponents got at least a partial reprieve when U.S. District Judge Janet Neff ruled last week that the litigation over Line 5’s future should remain in federal court, as Enbridge wanted.Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer and Michigan Attorney General Dana Nessel had been fighting to get the matter back in state court, where it was originally filed. The two contend Enbridge is in violation of a 1953 easement agreement with the state of Michigan.“It means Line 5 probably stays open at least through this winter,” Although the focus has been on crude oil that Line 5 supplies to refineries, about one-seventh of what’s transported through Line 5 is propane. Disrupting that flow would be devastating to propane companies supplying fuel to heat homes, he said.
US to boost current natural gas capacity 6% by 2025 – but why? --Between 2022 and 2025, 27.3 gigawatts (GW) of new natural gas-fired capacity is scheduled to come online in the US, boosting its existing capacity of 489.1 GW as of August 2021, according to the US Energy Information Administration (EIA). Here’s where it’s headed. Illinois, Michigan, Ohio, and Pennsylvania account for a combined 43% of the natural gas-fired capacity that’s planned to come online between 2022 and 2025. Those states have pipeline access to the fossil fuel in the Appalachia region’s Marcellus and Utica shale plays that spread across Ohio, Pennsylvania, and West Virginia. Of those four states tapping into the Appalachian shale plays, Illinois has the most natural gas-fired capacity additions (3.8 GW), followed by Michigan (3.2 GW), Ohio (2.9 GW), and Pennsylvania (1.9 GW).Florida is also planning to bring 3.2 GW of capacity online between 2022 and 2025. It pipes the fossil fuel from out of state:Five new natural gas-fired plants plan to start commercial operations in Florida between 2022 and 2025: three plants are currently under construction, and two plants are not yet under construction but are scheduled to be completed by 2024.Meanwhile, more natural gas is produced in Texas than any other state. The EIA writes: Most of its natural gas production comes from the Haynesville and Eagle Ford formations and multiple shale formations in the Permian Basin. As of August, 70.7 GW of natural gas-fired capacity is currently operating in Texas, and another 2.8 GW of capacity additions is planned to come online between 2022 and 2025. We know that drilling for the polluting fossil fuel is being ramped up because of higher prices and resurgent demand, but this ultimately makes no sense in the long term.Methane is the primary component of natural gas, and as of November 4, more than 100 countries promised to cut methane emissions by at least 30% by 2030 at COP26. It particularly doesn’t make sense in Illinois, which just passed the historic Climate and Equitable Jobs Act in September. That law dictates that all of the state’s fossil fuel plants be shut down by 2045. So why is Illinois still planning to add 3.8 GW in the next three years? Why not scrap that and focus on renewables, which cost less for consumers to boot?Further, Florida Power & Light intends to collect an additional $810 million from customers in 2022 because of higher-than-expected natural gas costs. This is not only bad for the environment, it isn’t sensible business, either.
Pa. commission approves pipeline failure settlement — The Pennsylvania Public Utility Commission approved a settlement related to a massive pipeline failure and fire in Beaver County involving the “Revolution Pipeline” — resulting in nearly $2 million in civil penalties and additional preventative measures required by the pipeline operator, Nov. 18. The Revolution Pipeline is a 24-inch natural gas pipeline operated by Energy Transfer Company, doing business as ETC Northeast Pipeline. Early on the morning of Sept. 10, 2018, a portion of the pipeline failed in Center Township, Beaver County. That incident released more than three million cubic feet of natural gas and caused a fire that burned for several hours, destroying a nearby home and garage, damaging several electric transmission lines and towers in the area, and burning several acres of surrounding woodland. The commission voted 3-0 to approve the settlement, which resolves an investigation conducted by the Safety Division of the commission’s independent Bureau of Investigation and Enforcement, which is responsible for inspecting pipelines and investigating and enforcing safety violations for the commission. The settlement includes the following: A $1 million civil penalty, to be paid by ETC to the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania within 30 days of final approval of the settlement. Approximately $975,000 in additional safety-related measures, including added pipeline start-up procedures, including 24-hour monitoring during start-up, along with employees onsite at each valve station who are qualified to operate those valves, continuing until the pipeline reaches operating pressure. Incorporation of preconstruction research into pipeline design, to ensure that the information about the evaluation of geohazards is conveyed to the design team and construction inspectors working in the field. In-line inspections of the Revolution pipeline, prior to the start-up or operation date for that pipeline. Multiple annual in-line inspections on the Revolution pipeline, to verify the integrity of the pipeline. Immediate notice to the commission’s Bureau of Investigation and Enforcement of any slope failure affecting pipeline integrity, and enhanced procedures to monitor and patrol the entire Revolution pipeline right of way. Implementation of a quality assurance/quality control program to oversee pipeline siting and construction practices for the company’s gas and hazardous liquids pipelines in Pennsylvania.
America’s Biggest Natural Gas Well Operator Is Not Who You’d Expect – Forbes - If you asked the average person on the street which company operates the most oil and gas wells in the United States, it’s a safe bet the most common answer would be ExxonMobil. But the correct answer to that question is actually a little-known company based in Birmingham, Alabama called Diversified Energy, which operates about 69,000 mature oil and gas wells with a heavy focus on natural gas production in the northeast and central parts of the country. I was able to spend an hour interviewing Diversified’s founder and CEO, Rusty Hutson, Jr., when he was in Houston recently for an investor day. “I started Diversified in 2001 from scratch. Just 35 wells that I bought in West Virginia,” Hutson told me. “I’m from West Virginia, and at that time was working at Compass Bank in Birmingham.” A son, grandson and great-grandson of men who spent their careers in oil and gas, Hutson said he had no interest in following that family tradition when he entered college, where he obtained his degree in Accounting. “It was the last thing I wanted to do.” But that initial 35-well stake - a package of mature, predictable low-maintenance wells that his father actually brought to his attention - has now grown into a complex empire with production in 9 states, including West Virginia, Pennsylvania, Ohio and, thanks a recent major acquisition, Louisiana, Texas and Oklahoma. Hutson was able to operate his initial set of wells as a sideline as he worked at Compass Bank through 2005, and gained a real respect for a business model that focuses on acquiring and extending the life of these mature wells. “I think people have a misperception, because we started the company in the Appalachian conventional space, that that automatically you have a bunch of wells that are ready to die off,” he said. “That’s not the case. Conventional Appalachia is one of the oldest producing regions, but a majority of our portfolio has a lot of life left in it. These wells can go for 50, 60 years or more, and we have a lot of them.
FERC reduces ROE rate for agreement to keep Massachusetts gas plant running --The US Federal Energy Regulatory Commission modified a July order and reduced the rate of return on equity for a cost-of-service deal to keep two natural gas units in Massachusetts afloat. In July, the commission set a 9.33% rate of ROE on a deal to keep the Mystic Generating Station running for another two years. However, following requests for rehearing, FERC voted Nov. 18 to modify that order, reducing the rate to 9.19% as of June 1, 2022 (ER18-1639). The commission also told Mystic to submit a compliance filing within 30 days revising the agreement. Exelon wanted to retire the 1,700-MW Mystic Generating Station by the end of May 2022, but doing so could threaten reliability and fuel security for ISO New England, the grid operator said. As a result, ISO New England, Exelon and its subsidiary Constellation Mystic Power came to an agreement to continue operating the units from June 2022 to May 2024. That agreement also helps Mystic recover the bulk of the costs associated with a neighboring LNG terminal that fuels the plant. Connecticut regulators complained that FERC failed to apply a "natural break analysis" to results from the discounted cash flow model used to determine the ROE rate. The commission should have excluded Otter Tail from that analysis, given its high cash flow result that suggested it was an outlier, according to the state regulators. FERC determined in its reconsideration that Otter Tail was an outlier and should be excluded from the results. Doing so reduced the averages of the study, resulting in a risk premium of 9.19%, the commission said. Commissioner Allison Clements issued the lone dissent, as she did in July, critiquing the commission's ROE policy for applying a "flawed methodology that does not adequately protect consumers and does not yield just and reasonable rates." That policy also extends to transmission rates, she added, and the nation will need significant transmission investments in the coming years. "This investment can ultimately be a net win for consumers," Clements said. "But the value proposition for consumers is in no small part dependent on this commission's rigorous scrutiny of the rates charged for transmission service, of which ROE is a central component." Commissioner James Danly wrote in a concurrence that FERC's revised ROE methodology is "too complicated and threatens to cause great uncertainty going forward." "The inevitable consequence will be the chilling of investment in transmission development," Danly said. "I would likely not have voted in favor of our revised ROE methodology had it come before me in the first instance, but I also have not seen the kind of evidence that would be necessary to justify jettisoning it for yet another revised methodology."
Most planned US natural gas-fired plants are near Appalachia and in Florida and Texas – EIA - Between 2022 and 2025, 27.3 gigawatts (GW) of new natural gas-fired capacity is scheduled to come online in the United States, according to our latest Monthly Electric Generator Inventory. This added capacity would increase current capacity (489.1 GW as of August 2021) by 6%. Many of the planned natural gas-fired capacity additions are located close to major shale plays in the Appalachia region and Texas and in Florida.The Appalachia region’s Marcellus and Utica shale plays stretch across Ohio, Pennsylvania, and West Virginia. These shale plays have led the growth in U.S. natural gas production over the past several years, accounting for 34% of U.S. dry natural gas production in the first half of 2021.Illinois, Michigan, Ohio, and Pennsylvania—states with pipeline access to natural gas from the Marcellus and Utica shale plays—account for a combined 43% of the natural gas-fired capacity planned to come online between 2022 and 2025. Among these four states, Illinois has the most natural gas-fired capacity additions (3.8 GW), followed by Michigan (3.2 GW), Ohio (2.9 GW), and Pennsylvania (1.9 GW). Natural gas transport infrastructure continues to be added to this region to increase pipeline takeaway capacity and to bring natural gas to demand markets in the Midwest, Northeast, Southeast, and Canada.After Illinois, Florida has the second-most natural gas-fired capacity additions planned to come online between 2022 and 2025 (3.2 GW). Although Florida does not produce significant amounts of natural gas, its regional pipeline networks have been continually expanding to serve natural gas-fired generation units as older coal- and oil-fired units retire. Five new natural gas-fired plants plan to start commercial operations in Florida between 2022 and 2025: three plants are currently under construction, and two plants are not yet under construction but are scheduled to be completed by 2024.More natural gas is produced in Texas than any other state. Most of its natural gas production comes from the Haynesville and Eagle Ford formations and multiple shale formations in the Permian Basin. As of August, 70.7 GW of natural gas-fired capacity is currently operating in Texas, and another 2.8 GW of capacity additions is planned to come online between 2022 and 2025. Growth in natural gas production in Texas has encouraged natural gas-fired capacity additions and regional pipeline expansions to accommodate growing natural gas exports to Mexico, as well as record-high liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports from terminals in South Texas and in Louisiana.
Towns join push to block ‘bomb trains’ - A dozen South Jersey towns and some activist groups are urging the Biden administration to deny any attempt to renew a permit that allows liquefied natural gas to be shipped by rail to a planned export terminal at Gibbstown in Gloucester County. They are part of a coalition from New Jersey and Pennsylvania that submitted more than 3,600 petitions to the federal government last week, calling on it not to grant an extension of the permit that expires Nov. 30. The Special Permit, issued by the Trump administration in December 2019, would allow Energy Transport Solutions, a unit of New Fortress Energy, to run up to two 100-car trains a day from a planned liquefaction plant at Wyalusing, Pennsylvania, to Gibbstown. There the fuel would be loaded onto ships at what would be New Jersey’s first LNG export terminal. The facility would represent an expansion of an existing port called the Gibbstown Logistics Center. Critics say that transport of the fuel in tank cars — dubbed “bomb trains” by opponents — through densely populated areas including Camden and Philadelphia exposes populations to a risk of catastrophic explosions and should be blocked by federal and state authorities. They also argue that exporting LNG would stimulate the production of natural gas and lead to more leaks of methane, a potent greenhouse gas, at a time when world leaders are trying to curb carbon emissions to slow climate change. Jim Stewart, a New Jersey-based opponent, argued that there is no benefit to the state in allowing the project to move ahead since the LNG would be exported. “In our presentations to local town councils we talk about the lack of benefit of this project to New Jersey,” Stewart said. “There is none. Many people are aware of the environmental threats because of the recent climate crisis events and therefore are more likely to be concerned with this project.
Effort underway to simplify natural gas property tax assessment — Legislation passed toward the end of the 2021 regular session was supposed to fix constitutional issues with the way West Virginia assesses the value of property with natural gas production. Instead, no one is happy with the new rules. Lawmakers passed House Bill 2581 in April over the objections of several Northern Panhandle and North Central West Virginia elected leaders. The bill required the State Tax Commissioner to develop a revised methodology to value oil and natural gas properties. The State Tax Department submitted an emergency rule over the summer for how it planned to carry out HB 2581, though the Legislature’s Rule-Making Review Committee has yet to take up the final rule. But Marshall County Assessor Eric Buzzard hopes lawmakers can scrap the rule and start over during the 2022 legislative session. According to the emergency rule, the value of oil and natural gas-producing property is determined by applying a yield capitalization model based on a weighted average cost of capital to the net receipts (once royalties and annual operating costs are subtracted from gross receipts) for working interest, with a yield capitalization model applied to gross royalty payments for royalty interest. “The key methodology changes have been a statutory move to actual receipts less costs … the new capitalization rate that is now derived using a weighted average cost capital approach which we believe is a more accurate representation of the actual cost of employing capital in the investment and more likely captures the risk,” said Erin Winter, acting deputy tax commissioner, during a legislative interim meeting in September. The State Tax Department also eliminated the provision that called for the 18 months of decline from the discounted cashflow analysis, and natural gas liquids — along with the value reduction costs to make it marketable — are included as a value item. What does any of that mean? That’s a question that major natural gas producers, accountants, and county assessors would like to know.
Spire pipeline flap in Missouri reveals deeper questions about natural gas --Spire Missouri has spent weeks telling its St. Louis-area natural gas customers that they might go without heat this winter, all because of a legal challenge to a pipeline one of its affiliate companies built in 2018.The claims have prompted rebuke from clean energy advocates and elected officialswho say the utility is needlessly and disingenuously spreading alarm and fuelingthreats against an environmental organization.As the back-and-forth reached a fever pitch last week, a development Thursday at the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission pointed to a likely extension of the pipeline’s emergency permit, cooling the issue for now. The temporary resolution, though, will do little to settle a broader if lower-profile debate simmering in the state over the role of natural gas. Demand for natural gas in the St. Louis area is projected to remain flat or decline, as filings by Spire and its opponents have acknowledged. Clean energy advocates say rather than building new pipelines and natural gas infrastructure, the state should be investing in energy efficiency, electrification and renewable electricity generation that can replace natural gas. As they see it, Spire was hoping to build public support for natural gas by stirring up emotions over the pipeline permit even though there was virtually no chance FERC would order the pipeline shut down during the winter. “The (STL) pipeline is part of the industry’s larger goal of putting infrastructure in the ground to make it harder to make the necessary transition, the transition we have to make if we are going to battle catastrophic climate change, away from their very dangerous product, methane gas,” said Michael Berg, Missouri Sierra Club political director. “It’s part of a larger strategy of Spire and the gas industry.”
U.S. natgas drops to near 11-week low on mild weather, lower demand (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures dropped over 5% to a near 11-week low on Monday on forecasts for milder than normal weather and lower demand over the next two weeks than previously expected. Traders said prices also slumped on near record U.S. output, healthy U.S. stockpiles and a decline in European gas futures. Front-month gas futures fell 27.6 cents, or 5.4%, to settle at $4.789 per million British thermal units (mmBtu), their lowest close since Sept. 7. Traders noted the front-month briefly dipped below its 100-day moving average on Monday for the first time since April. Before the latest price drop, speculators boosted their net long positions on the New York Mercantile and Intercontinental Exchanges last week for the first time since September as liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports jumped to record highs with soaring global gas prices keeping demand for U.S. LNG strong. Global gas prices had hit record highs as utilities around the world scrambled for LNG cargoes to replenish extremely low stockpiles in Europe and meet insatiable demand in Asia, where energy shortfalls have caused power blackouts in China. Following those global gas prices, U.S. futures jumped to a 12-year high in early October, but have pulled back since because the United States has plenty of gas in storage and ample production for the winter. Overseas prices continue to trade about six times higher than U.S. futures. Analysts have said European inventories were about 17% below normal for this time of year, compared with just 2% below normal in the United States. EIA/GASNGAS/POLL Data provider Refinitiv said output in the U.S. Lower 48 states averaged 96.1 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in November, up from 94.1 bcfd in October and a monthly record of 95.4 bcfd in November 2019. Refinitiv projected average U.S. gas demand, including exports, would rise to 114.1 bcfd next week from 111.4 bcfd this week as the weather turns seasonally colder and homes and businesses crank up their heaters. The forecast for next week, however, was lower than Refinitiv's forecast on Friday. The amount of gas flowing to U.S. LNG export plants averaged 11.2 bcfd so far in November, up from 10.5 bcfd in October as the sixth train at Cheniere Energy Inc's LNG.A Sabine Pass plant in Louisiana started producing LNG in test mode. That compares with a monthly record of 11.5 bcfd in April.
US natural gas storage posts first net withdrawal of 2021-22 heating season | S&P Global Platts -- US natural gas storage fields posted the first net withdrawal of the 2021-22 heating season, but injections continued in two of the five storage regions. Storage fields withdrew 21 Bcf for the week ended Nov. 19, according to data released by the US Energy Information Administration Nov. 24. The data was released one day earlier than usual to account for the Thanksgiving holiday. Although the week ended Nov. 5 is typically the final injection of the year, mild weather drove builds past that point in 2021. The withdrawal was just below the 23 Bcf pull expected by a survey of analysts by S&P Global Platts. Responses to the survey ranged from a 12 to 30 Bcf withdrawal. The draw was less than the five-year average pull of 44 Bcf but more nearly double last year's 11 Bcf withdrawal in the corresponding week. Working gas inventories decreased to 3.623 Tcf. US storage volumes now stand 320 Bcf, or 8%, less than the year-ago level of 3.943 Tcf and 58 Bcf, or 1.6%, less than the five-year average of 3.681 Tcf. While the East, Midwest and Mountain regions all posted drawdowns, net injections occurred in the Pacific and South Central regions of the US. This narrative quickly changes once we get to the week in progress, where the South Central appears to be firmly in withdrawal mode based on pipeline sample data, but even still there are some facilities in the South Central and even in the East region where nominal injections are taking place, if not daily then at least on a few days this week. Industrial demand in the Southeast and Texas is on the path to fully recover from the impacts of Hurricane Ida in late August after lingering outages and maintenance works prolonged its rebound to prehurricane levels, according to Platts Analytics. November industrial demand is averaging 11.5 Bcf/d, up 800 MMcf/d from October and up 1.5 Bcf/d from September, which saw the height of hurricane-related impacts. Platts Analytics' supply and demand model forecast a 62 Bcf withdrawal for the week ending Nov. 26, which is nearly double the size of the five-year average. Another above-normal draw is also expected for the week ending Dec. 3. The NYMEX Henry Hub December contract added 10 cents to $5.06/MMBtu in trading following the release of the EIA's storage report. The remaining winter strip months, January through March, also crept higher. The strip has been revolving around the $5/MMBtu mark for the past two weeks.
U.S. natgas soars over 7% on forecasts for higher demand - U.S. natural gas futures jumped more than 7% in holiday-thinned trading on Friday, registering their best week in nearly two months, supported by forecasts for slightly higher heating demand than previously expected. On its last day as the front-month, gas futures for December delivery rose 37.9 cents or 7.5% to settle at $5.447 per million British thermal units (mmBtu). For the week, the contract is up 7.5% after gaining about 5.8% last week. "With colder weather coming up, traders are out there saying 'Okay, we can buy,'" Robert DiDona of Energy Ventures Analysis said. "The market has largely been bouncing back and forth in a small range, and then we finally got some short covering on a thin day." Data provider Refinitiv projected average U.S. gas demand, including exports, would rise from 112.0 bcfd this week to 112.8 bcfd next week as the weather turns seasonally colder and homes and businesses crank up their heaters. With gas prices around $30 per mmBtu in Europe and $36 in Asia, compared with about $5 in the United States, traders said buyers around the world will keep purchasing all the LNG the United States can produce. The amount of gas flowing to U.S. LNG export plants averaged 11.3 bcfd so far in November, up from 10.5 bcfd in October as the sixth train at Cheniere Energy Inc's Sabine Pass plant in Louisiana started producing LNG. That compares with a monthly record of 11.5 bcfd in April. Meanwhile, data provider Refinitiv said output in the U.S. Lower 48 states averaged 96.3 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in November, up from 94.1 bcfd in October and a monthly record of 95.4 bcfd in November 2019.
Cash Markets See-Saw, But Weekly Natural Gas Prices Find Path Higher Through Northeast - Volatility in the Northeast sent natural gas spot prices on a rollercoaster ride during an abbreviated holiday week, with prices spiking in the region Monday, plunging the next day and then soaring anew to close the trading period. When the dust settled, weekly cash prices advanced along with Northeast gains. NGI’s Weekly Spot Gas National Avg. for the Nov. 22-24 period – shortened because of the Thanksgiving Day Holiday – rose 13.5 cents to $5.010. Gas traded during the period was scheduled to flow from Nov. 23-29. Weather conditions were benign in most parts of the Lower 48 during the period, generating modest heating demand. But the pair of Northeast surges – one on Monday and the next two days later – powered the overall average higher. Algonquin Citygate jumped $2.465 to $7.360, while Iroquois Zone 2 climbed $1.270 to $6.290 and Maritimes & Northeast soared $3.790 to $9.505. Propelled by continued strong demand for U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG), the December Nymex contract rallied during the week and finished strong. The prompt month settled at $5.068/MMBtu to close the trading week on Wednesday, up slightly from the prior week’s finish of $5.065. Looking ahead, while the December outlook was bearish prior to the holiday weekend, NatGasWeather said a wintry mix of rain and snow would push across the Great Lakes into the Northeast to start the week ahead. However, the firm added, temperatures were expected to prove 10-30 degrees warmer than normal in early December. “The weather data is so bearish for the first week of December, it would be difficult to be more so.”
Alabama Power to buy Calhoun plant despite rising gas prices - - Alabama Power has petitioned the Alabama Public Service Commission to buy a 743 MW gas-fired power plant in Calhoun County, Alabama, despite its parent company’s net-zero emissions target and sharply rising gas prices that risk driving up customers’ bills. Alabama Power’s move to purchase the plant, which is already in service and owned by an independent power producer, comes in addition to the utility’s plans to increase its gas generating capacity by almost 2,000 MW, which the Alabama Public Service Commission (PSC) approved in 2020. Alabama Power currently has an agreement to purchase power from the Calhoun plant, which is scheduled to end in 2022.Alabama Power’s request for permission from the PSC to buy the Calhoun County gas plant did not specify what assumptions the utility used to project the future price of gas.Alabama Power had previously called methane gas a “persistently” low-cost resource in a January 2020 filing with the Alabama PSC. At that time, the Henry Hub Spot Price, a commonly used metric for gas prices, was at $2.02 per MMBTU. By October of 2021, gas prices had soared to $5.51 per MMBTU.In addition to risking bill increases for customers, the gas plant purchase by Alabama Power does not seem to comport with a goal set by its parent company, Southern Company, to reach “net-zero” emissions by 2050. The utility has defended its use of gas as part of its net-zero emissions target, despite the fact that burning methane gas in power plants emits carbon dioxide, and that methane leaks upstream of gas-fired power plants emit methane, a powerful greenhouse gas, into the atmosphere directly. The utility’s net-zero implementation plan, released in September 2020,showed that it would operate gas-fired power plants up to 2050 and Alabama Power received approval from the AlabamaPSC to operate a new gas-fired power plant as late as 2060.Alabama Power’s moves to purchase power plants from independent power producers have raised questions of anti-competitive behavior, echoing a Department of Justice (DOJ) investigation of Entergy more than ten years ago that accused the utility of blocking competitors from selling power and later purchasing the power plants at artificially low costs. Entergy later joined a competitive market to alleviate the DOJ’s concerns. Alabama Power is not a member of a competitive market.
Goodrich Going Private in $480M Deal as Haynesville - and Natural Gas Prices - Heat Up - Publicly listed independent Goodrich Petroleum Corp. has agreed to be taken private by Paloma Partners VI Holdings LLC in a deal valued at roughly $480 million. Paloma, an affiliate of EnCap Energy Capital Fund XI LP, plans to launch a tender offer to acquire for $23/share in cash all of Goodrich’s outstanding common stock. Goodrich operates primarily in the Haynesville Shale. The board has unanimously approved the offer price, which represents a roughly 7% premium to Goodrich’s closing price last Friday (Nov. 19), management said. The tender offer is expected to be completed in December “and followed promptly by a second-step merger,” the company said. “Upon completion of the transaction, Goodrich will become a privately held company and shares of Goodrich common stock will no longer be listed on any public market.”Private equity has been pouring into the Lower 48 oil and gas patch as publicly traded names have maintained capital discipline despite rising commodity prices. The gassy Haynesville, which extends from East Texas into Northern Louisiana, in particular has seen a surge in activity from private and public companies alike. Comstock Resources Inc. and Diversified Energy Co. plc have sought to capitalize on favorable gas pricing in the basin and liquefied natural gas (LNG) export demand along the Gulf Coast. Southwestern Energy Co. in September also completed a $2.7 billion takeover of Haynesville pure-play Indigo Natural Resources LLC.
Targa Eyeing Another Permian Natural Gas Processing Expansion - After seeing better-than-expected growth in gathering volumes in the Permian Basin, Targa Resources Corp. is planning for another processing plant in the Midland sub-basin. The Houston-based midstreamer reported that system inlet volumes rose 7% sequentially in the third quarter, with total Permian inlet volumes reaching a record 2,952 MMcf/d. Management now expects volumes this year to exceed the top end of its previously disclosed 5-10% growth over 2020. Discussing results earlier this month, CEO Matt Meloy said the 200 MMcf/d Heim cryogenic gas processing plant, which began full operations in September, is running near capacity. The 250 MMcf/d Legacy plant, meanwhile, remains on track to begin operations in 4Q2022. “With robust activity levels expected to continue into next year and beyond, we are evaluating the timing of our next Midland plant, after Legacy, and are now ordering long lead items,” Meloy said during the 3Q2021 earnings call. It’s not clear when the additional plant may be needed, and Targa is still in the evaluation stage, he said. However, growth capital expenditures in 2022 are expected to be higher than the projected $450 million this year, largely because of the new plant, well connects and compression. Targa plans to issue its 2022 operational and financial outlook in February, with details on the timing of the plant expected then. Completions and activity also continue to ramp in the Permian Delaware, but Targa has adequate processing capacity to accommodate the anticipated near- to medium-term growth.
Northern Oil Builds on Acquisition Spree with Another Permian Deal - - Northern Oil and Gas Inc. has agreed to acquire “substantially all” the nonoperated Permian Basin assets owned by affiliates of Veritas Energy LLC, including 6,000 oil-weighted net acres. The transaction for $406.5 million was announced earlier this month. “This transaction completes the strategic transformation of our business that began in 2018,” CEO Nick O’Grady said. “It will drive immediate significant accretion across the board to our investors, increased cash returns, and importantly, creates a truly diversified business of scale, with substantial free cash flow that can self-fund future growth.” The acquisition includes about 6,000 net acres and about 45 undrilled locations in the Permian’s Delaware sub-basin in the New Mexico counties of Lea and Eddy and the Texas counties of Loving, Reeves, Ward and Winkler. The assets boast average production of 9,000-11,500 boe/d, 60% weighted to oil. The firm expects 2022 average production from the Permian acreage of 10,500 boe/d-plus, also 60% oil-weighted. The Veritas deal would give Northern 31.7 net producing wells, 5.6 net wells in process, four permitted net wells, aka authorized for expenditure, and 40.8 net future develop locations, said Northern. Of the assets being acquired, Northern said ConocoPhillips, Devon Energy Corp., EOG Resources Inc. and Mewbourne Oil Co. manage about 64% of the expected 2022 production.
Sino American, Estacado Considering Texas Oilfield Venture - Sino American Oil Co. reported Tuesday that it plans to acquire a majority stake in a North Texas oil field. The Wyoming-based company said that it would obtain a majority working interest in the Piave Oil Field, located in Throckmorton County, TX, by way of a newly signed memorandum of understanding (MOU) with Estacado Energy LLC. “This acquisition not only brings on current well production, but the upside of the certified geological reports also establishes notable upside potential,” said Sino American CEO Kim Halvorson. Halvorson told NGI’s Shale Daily that the Piave field is neither part of the currently defined Barnett Shale nor the Cline Shale. According to the Railroad Commission of Texas (RRC) online oil and gas database, Estacado has been the Piave field operator since March 2008. Veneto Exploration LLC had been the previous operator from August 2007, the RRC database showed. The RRC report stated that the Piave field produced a total of 31,874 bbl of oil through October. The MOU outlines a $600,000 purchase price, $200,000 of which would be in Sino American common stock. Sino American said that it would advance another $50,000 by Jan. 6 toward operations to recomplete existing wells and boost the production of other wells.
Texas adds 2,300 oil exploration, production jobs in October - Oil exploration and production companies in Texas added 2,300 jobs in October, the sixth straight month of gains. The state has 183,400 drilling and extraction workers, about 17 percent fewer than the 220,300 before the pandemic began in January 2020. Texas has recovered 25,900 — 43 percent — of the 60,000 upstream jobs lost during the pandemic, according to data from the Texas Workforce Commission and analyzed by the Texas Independent Producers and Royalty Owners Association, an industry trade group. “Following a tumultuous year for the energy markets in 2020 and the lingering effects of a global pandemic, the law of supply and demand has driven commodity prices higher this year, with a growing consensus around a new, multiyear super cycle for oil and natural gas,” TIPRO President Ed Longanecker said. On HoustonChronicle.com: Who benefits from Big Oil’s big profits? Not Houston’s laid-off oil workers. Oil companies laid off tens of thousands of workers statewide last year after oil demand and prices plunged amid economic lockdowns and travel restrictions. Oil demand and prices are recovering as vaccines have helped businesses reopen and boost travel. West Texas Intermediate, the U.S. crude benchmark, settled Friday in New York at $76.10 a barrel, down $2.91 from Thursday but up from $48 in January. Texas oil and gas companies posted 9,503 new job listings in October, an increase of more than 1,200 from September, according to TIPRO. Houston had the most job listings: 3,101; followed by Odessa with 707 and Midland with 697.
Texas oil production clashes with climate goals - The world needs to cut more than half its production of coal, oil and gas in the coming decade to maintain a chance of keeping climate change from reaching dangerous levels, according to a U.N.-backed study released last month.The report published by the U.N. Environment Program found that while governments have made ambitious pledges to curb greenhouse gas emissions, they are still planning to extract double the amount of fossil fuels in 2030 than what would be consistent with the 2015 Paris Climate Accord’s goal of keeping the global temperature rise below 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit).Even the less ambitious goal of capping global warming at 2 degrees C (3.6 degrees Fahrenheit) by the end of the century compared to pre-industrial times would be overshot, the report said. Climate experts say the world must stop adding to the total amount of greenhouse gas in the atmosphere by 2050, and that can only be done by drastically reducing the burning of fossil fuels as soon as possible, among other measures.The report, which was released days before a U.N. climate summit began Oct. 31 in Glasgow, found most major oil and gas producers — and even some major coal producers — are planning on increasing production until 2030 or even beyond. It also concluded that the group of 20 major industrialized and emerging economies have invested more into new fossil fuel projects than into clean energy since the start of 2020.The disparity between climate goals and fossil fuel extraction plans — termed the “production gap” — will widen until at least 2040, the report found.Nowhere is that gap wider than in Texas, where oil production in the Permian Basin is expected to grow 50% over the next decade alone.A report by Oil Change International, Earthworks and the Center for International Environmental Law highlights the stark contradiction between the Biden administration’s climate goals and the expected trajectory of oil and gas production in the Permian Basin.The report, The Permian Basin Climate Bomb, additionally reveals that burning the oil and gas projected to be produced in the Permian Basin by 2050 will release nearly 40 billion tons of CO2, almost 10% of the remaining global carbon budget for staying under 1.5 degrees C. 80% of these emissions, over 30.6 billion tons of CO2, would come from burning the liquids and gas produced from new wells that were not in production at the end of 2020.
Enviros, tribal leaders face right-wing, pro-Line 5 ‘echo chamber’ For years, Canadian pipeline company Enbridge has been pushing back against opponents of its controversial Line 5 oil pipeline by arguing that, should it be shut down, fuel prices would shoot up and propane supply would suffer. However, a shutdown doesn’t appear to be imminent, as Enbridge is locked in an array of court battles to keep the state from acting to do so and scored a victory last week. But Republicans in Michigan and elsewhere have locked onto that messaging and have been frequently mirroring Enbridge’s warnings — regardless of the veracity of the claims. Line 5 supporters have not only preemptively blamed Democratic Gov. Gretchen Whitmer for rising gas prices caused by a shutdown, but have also insinuated that President Joe Biden is involved in the effort, despite the Democrat’s lack of a public stance on Line 5. “It’s all politics,” said David Holtz, spokesperson for the anti-Line 5 Oil & Water Don’t Mix coalition. “What’s coming out of the right-wing echo chamber nationally is ridiculous. They’re trying to simply use Line 5 as a cudgel against President Biden on energy prices, when the fact is, Line 5 has really nothing at all to do with energy prices. “Gas prices go up and down. Right now, they’re up. Line 5 has little to do with prices at the pump,” Holtz said. Tribal citizens have long complained about Enbridge’s messaging tactics, some of which attempt to portray an “understanding” between the company and tribes, which they characterize as misleading and manipulative. All 12 federally recognized tribes in Michigan are publicly opposed to Line 5 and its tunnel-enclosed replacement project. “It’s a media tactic by Enbridge to do that, to raise questions as much as possible, to fearmonger, which seems to be a great tool of the right,” “It really elevates that whole concern by people that they’re going to experience much higher gas prices and experience scarcity when it comes to fuel. And really, the evidence is very much to the contrary,” .
Here’s Everything Enbridge Is Buying Cops to Fight Protesters – short excerpt - Though opposition to the pipeline has been building locally for years, protests didn’t ramp up until November of 2020, when the Army Corps of Engineers issued Enbridge the final documents it needed to complete construction on the pipeline: water-crossing permits that would allow it to traverse through waterways that local communities say are vital to their ways of life. A few months prior, in May of 2020, the Minnesota Public Utilities Commission (MPUC) issued Enbridge its own set of permits to route the pipeline from the North Dakota-Minnesota border to the Wisconsin-Minnesota border. This permit included an agreement that Enbridge would create a “public safety reimbursement fund” to pay state law enforcement back for expenses related to protecting public safety around Line 3. The account was to be managed by an independent party.This fund, established in an escrow account, set out to cover costs for “maintaining the peace in and around the [pipeline] construction site,” including emergency first responders and transportation management, according to the documentation. It was not designed to cover expenses like weapons, a representative from the MPUC told Motherboard in August. The approved invoices that Motherboard received via FOIA request showEnbridge has used the account to cover expenses for gun holsters, baton holders, riot helmets, and shields, all under a provision for “personal protective equipment” to keep officers safe during deployments. A $74,169 payout to the Beltrami County Sheriff’s Office on March 1, for instance, includes coverage of gas masks under this provision. “This is so that they, themselves can use tear gas on people and then they have to protect themselves from their own tear gas,” said Mara Verheyden-Hilliard, co-founder of the Partnership for Civil Justice Fund, who has represented Line 3 activists in litigation against Minnesota law enforcement. “They are allowing materials that we would believe are weaponry, even if they are trying to suggest that they are defensive.” One approved invoice, filed by the Plummer Fire Department in August, requests reimbursement for the cost of a 200-gallon Wildland Fire Engine (a firetruck with a hose) that officers noted was used explicitly for “protestor extrication. Meanwhile, hundreds of thousands of dollars have been charged to the account to send officers to take the Federal Emergency Management Agency’s (FEMA) Field Force Operations training, which teaches enrollees how to “use equipment to control crowds,” and “apprehend, search, and detain a subject” in mass-arrest scenarios, according to the FEMA website.This has led to what Verheyden-Hilliard calls “a concentrated and very astonishing level of policing” around the pipeline. She recalls a sudden point in her work around Line 3 that she began to notice police presence ramping up to levels that were far beyond what she would expect.
Let environmentalists bid for oil leases - Only days after the Glasgow Climate Pact called for a phaseout of fossil fuel subsidies, the Biden administration opened auctions for oil leases in the Gulf of Mexico on Nov. 17. Buyers such as Chevron, Anadarko and Exxon bid $191 million for 1.7 million acres at an average price of $112 per acre. Media reports called this an about-face of Biden’s primary campaign promise for “no more subsides for the fossil fuel industry” and “no more drilling on federal lands… including offshore.” Environmental groups such as Earthjustice filed lawsuits. Many others voiced disapproval. Is this sale a subsidy to fossil fuels? And why didn’t environmental groups try to block development by buying the leases themselves? A recent analysis in the journal Science I authored with a team of economists and law professors addresses these questions. We point out that environmentalists are precluded from federal auctions for minerals, forests, grazing land, and water, due to “use it or lose it” stipulations common in the U.S. and around the world. You can’t lease public resources with the intent to leave them be, as environmental activist Terry Tempest Williams learned in 2016. Upon winning a federal oil and gas lease and revealing that she intended to keep the oil in the ground, the Bureau of Land Management canceled the leases, arguing she violated the “diligent development requirement” of the 1920 Mineral Leasing Act, which requires lessees to have an intent to produce. Use-it-or-lose-it rules made sense a century ago to discourage waste and prevent speculation, but today they prevent willing buyers from expressing their preferences for conservation via market bidding. Revising federal policies to allow non-use would give people a way to buy conservation through voluntary leasing, rather than by joining interest groups to push for it through political, legal and administrative channels. Allowing them to bid would redirect money toward durable conservation, rather than toward influencing short-term policy decisions that change with political whims, as demonstrated by Biden’s flip-flopping on campaign promises. Consider that Earthjustice alone spent $95 million on litigation over 2019 to 2020 and other groups with comparable budgets, such as the Natural Resources Defense Council and the Sierra Club, also spend on litigation. But this is just the tip of the iceberg: Environmental groups are well equipped to tap the $12 billion crowdfunding market for donors wanting to support climate causes.
Ragnar Targeting The Madison WIth No Less Than Twenty-Three Horizontal Wells -- November 20, 2021 --Form the December, 2021, NDIC hearing dockets, these are cases, not permits:
- Case 29116, Ragnar Exploration LLC, Fryburg-Madison, establish five 320-acre units, S/2 section 21 and all of sections 20 and 22 - 139-100; one horizontal well one each unit; Billings County;
- Case 29117, Ragnar Exploration LLC, Norwegian Creek-Madison, establish fourteen 320-acre units, sections 23/26/35-139-100; and section 2/3/10/11-138-100; one horizontal well on each 320-acre unit, Billings County;
- Case 29118, Ragnar Exploration LLC, Rocky Hill-Madison, Billings County, establish four 320-acre units; sections 1/12-138-100; Billings County;
Unless someone has data to tell me differently, this is a new company operating in North Dakota. Since this company is targeting the Madison and not the Bakken, it will not be added to the list of "Operators" at this blog. Ragnar Exploration, LLC does not appear at the NDIC "well search" website, as of this date. Ragnar Technologies seems to be related;
- Billings County is not considered a core Bakken county
- it is rare to see horizontal drilling in the Madison
- this is a lot of drilling units in one case (fourteen drilling units in case 29117, for example)
- the target formation is not the Bakken; the target formation is the Madison
- these are going to be extremely short laterals; in the old days they would have been called directional wells
- we do not know if fracking will be required
There are several dry wells in the immediate area, but only one producing well, also a short lateral, drilled back in 2007 and it took 38 days from spud to total depth. These days, this well would be drilled to depth in less than a week: the gold standard would be one day for the vertical; a half day for the curve; a full day for the lateral. Come in to work el lunes y salir el viernes. There is no evidence that this one producing well in the immediate area was fracked.
Keystone Developers Seek $15 Billion From U.S. for Cancellation – Bloomberg - Developers of Keystone XL are seeking to recoup more than $15 billion in damages connected to President Joe Biden’s decision to yank a permit for the border-crossing oil pipeline even after construction began. With a request for arbitration filed Monday, Calgary-based TC Energy Corp.formally opened one of the largest trade appeals ever against the U.S. and asked to put its long-running dispute over Keystone XL in front of an international arbitration panel. The legal claim is being mounted under provisions of the North American Free Trade Agreement that allow foreign companies to challenge U.S. policy decisions.
Lawsuits Arise from the OC Oil Spill – --After the Oct. 2 oil spill in Southern California, alleged failure to properly maintain oil platforms and abide by existing plans and regulations has landed the federal government with notices of intent to sue. On Nov. 2 the Center for Biological Diversity filed a notice of its intent to sue the federal government in response to the Oct. 2 oil spill. The center is suing for alleged oversights allowing Platform Elly (which houses equipment to process oil from platforms Ellen and Eureka) and other offshore oil production in the Beta oilfield to operate under outdated drilling plans written in the 1970s and 80s. The center also filed a notice against the BOEM on Oct. 8 for failure to account for the impact offshore drilling has on endangered species. The Center recalled that the BOEM has failed to audit and require revision of the outdated plans. They believe BOEM has neglected its duties despite the recent oil spill, the age of the infrastructure, and other changes since the logistics were authorized about four decades ago. The Endangered Species Act (ESA) suit and the Outer Continental Shelf Act (OCS Lands Act) suit will both be directed against the BOEM. The Endangered Species Act-based notice from the Center also has intent to sue the National Marine Fisheries Service and U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service. All federal agencies considered to be expert wildlife agencies for ESA consultation that have the duty to reinitiate consultation, which lies with both them and the action agency. All agencies were being relied on by BOEM for requirements for offshore drilling, and all collaborated closely in process of constructing the regulations and requirements of the offshore platforms. The Center argues that offshore oil and gas drilling is inherently dirty and dangerous as shown by the recent spill from a pipeline connected to Platform Elly. They argue that the age of the infrastructure is responsible for littering the Pacific Ocean for over half a century, in turn heightening numerous inherent risks. As such, The Center requests that BOEM must immediately begin phasing out this treacherous activity on the Pacific Outer Continental Shelf (OCS) and all other regions.o
Coast Guard taps 2nd ship as party of interest in oil spill - U.S. Coast Guard investigators on Friday said they have identified a second ship suspected of dragging its anchor near an underwater pipeline that later leaked crude oil into the waters off the Southern California coast. The Coast Guard said in a statement that investigators boarded the BEIJING in the Port of Long Beach on Thursday and that the owner and operator of the vessel were designated as parties of interest in the probe of last month's oil spill. Authorities said the ship was suspected of dragging anchor during severe weather on January 25 near the pipeline that ferried crude from offshore platforms to the coast. The pipeline run by Houston-based Amplify Energy leaked about 25,000 gallons (94,635 liters) of crude into the ocean last month, prompting beach and fishery closures and raising concerns among environmentalists about the impact of oil washing up along the coast. The Coast Guard previously designated the owner and operator of the MSC Danit as parties of interest to the spill for suspected anchor dragging near the pipeline during the same weather event. Other vessels and scenarios remain under investigation.
Oil sheen spotted near Southern California's oil spill (AP) — Officials are investigating an oil sheen spotted Saturday near last month’s crude pipeline leak off Southern California’s coast. The U.S. Coast Guard says the oil sheen is about 70 feet by 30 feet and that it has dispatched “pollution responders, aircraft and boats” to investigate. The oil sheen is located in the same area where a massive oil spill was confirmed last month off the coast of Orange County. The spill confirmed Oct. 2 from a ruptured underwater pipeline owned by Houston-based Amplify Energy leaked up to about 25,000 gallons of crude.
Officials investigate California oil sheen near earlier leak - (AP) — An oil sheen spotted in the ocean near last month’s crude pipeline leak off Southern California was likely residual oil from the earlier spill, an official said Sunday. The U.S. Coast Guard on Saturday dispatched aircraft and boats to investigate the oil sheen measuring about 70 feet (21 meters) by 30 feet (9 meters) off the coast of Orange County. Coast Guard officials said Saturday night that the sheen had dissipated they would continue monitoring the area. The Los Angeles Times reported that divers preparing to do a routine inspection of the damaged pipeline noticed small oil droplets near the damaged section, which since the spill has been wrapped in a material called Syntho-Glass. The divers removed the wrap and replaced it with a new one, said Eric Laughlin, a spokesman for the California Department of Fish and Wildlife. The pipeline has been shut down and no oil has flowed through it since the Oct. 2 spill, Lughlin said Sunday. The oil spotted Saturday was “likely residual,” he said. The sheen was located in the same area where the underwater pipeline owned by Houston-based Amplify Energy leaked up to about 25,000 gallons (94,635 liters) of crude on Oct. 2. Oil washed ashore, tarring the feathers of dozens of birds and leading to rescues of marine mammals. The impact of the spill was less than initially feared, but it affected local wetlands and wildlife and shut the shoreline in surf-loving Huntington Beach for a week.
Concerns Linger Over a Secretive Texas Company That Owns the Largest Share of the Trans-Alaska Pipeline - Environmental organizations and pipeline experts continue expressing concerns about a secretive Texas petroleum company with a spotty safety record that acquired the largest share of the Trans-Alaska Pipeline last year as thawing permafrost and flooding linked to climate change threatened the massive oil conduit. The Regulatory Commission of Alaska voted 4-1 in December 2020 to allow Hilcorp Energy Co. to acquire BP’s Alaska oil and gas assets for $5.6 billion, a transaction described as the biggest Alaskan business deal in a generation. It involved one of the state’s most important pieces of economic infrastructure. The acquisition, which included the oil giant’s 49 percent share of the Trans-Alaska Pipeline System (TAPS), received approval despite hundreds of comments from opponents who said they did not believe Hilcorp had either the expertise or the resources to protect the pipeline from intensifying climate change. Much of the opposition centered on Hilcorp’s refusal to publicly reveal internal financial documents, which the commission permitted through issuance of a disclosure waiver in the runup to the sale. The decision followed a pattern of protection afforded Hilcorp by the commission, which had ruled in favor of keeping the company’s finances secret on 19 occasions since it began operations in Alaska in 2012. The approval provoked a strongly worded dissent from Commissioner Stephen McAlpine, a two-term lieutenant governor of Alaska whose time on the commission ended earlier this year. “I believe that airing these documents publicly and subjecting the entire transaction to intense debate far outweighs the petitioners’ interest in keeping them confidential,” McAlpine said in his written opposition. McAlpine said in an interview that his qualms about Hilcorp’s ability to maintain the pipeline are tempered somewhat because of the deep pockets of the pipeline’s other owners, Exxon and ConocoPhillips. He said he is confident those petroleum giants would step in to protect the pipeline—and consequently their investments in the pipeline—if Hilcorp faltered. “Will they step up to the plate? I don’t know the answer to that question; nobody does,” McAlpine said of Hilcorp executives. “It’s a legitimate question to ask and it begs answers that we just don’t have.” Hilcorp, a private corporation, has argued that “potential competitive harm” to its business model outweighed “the public interest in disclosure.”
Biden administration to release oil from strategic reserve: reports -The Biden administration is expected, alongside other countries, to release some of the spare oil stored in its strategic reserve, multiple news outlets reported on Monday. Bloomberg and Politico both reported that the administration was preparing to release barrels from its Strategic Petroleum Reserve, with Bloomberg reporting that this could happen as soon as Tuesday. Bloomberg reported that the release will happen alongside India, Japan and South Korea. The White House, however, said that no decision had been made when reached for comment by The Hill. The Energy Department did not respond to requests for comment. The reports come as the country has struggled for months with high energy prices. Gasoline, which is made from oil, averaged nearly $3.41 per gallon on Monday. A major factor in the prices has been a rebound in demand following the rollout of the vaccines that has not been matched with a supply return as major oil producing countries have not returned to pre-pandemic production levels. The Biden administration has asked a group of oil-producing countries called OPEC+ to add more oil to the market, but the group has rebuffed his requests. Other Democrats, including Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.), have called on the administration to release oil from the reserve to provide reprieve on the prices. Meanwhile, the administration has indicated that it was considering the oil reserve, with Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm saying earlier this month that it’s something President Biden is “looking at.” And the head of the Energy Information Administration — the Energy Department’s statistics agency — told lawmakers last week that tapping into the reserve could provide some temporary relief amounting to about 5 to 10 cents at the pump.
U.S. to release oil from reserves in coordination with other countries to lower gas prices - President Joe Biden said Tuesday that the administration will tap the Strategic Petroleum Reserve as part of a global effort by energy-consuming nations to calm 2021's rapid rise in fuel prices.The coordinated release between the U.S., India, China, Japan, Republic of Korea and the United Kingdom is the first such move of its kind.The U.S. will release 50 million barrels from the SPR. Of that total, 32 million barrels will be an exchange over the next several months, while 18 million barrels will be an acceleration of a previously authorized sale.U.S. oil dipped 1.9% to a session low of $75.30 per barrel following the announcement, before recovering those losses and moving into positive territory. The contract last traded 2.5% higher at $78.67 per barrel.International benchmark Brent crude stood at $82.31 per barrel, for a gain of 3.2%.Rebecca Babin, a managing director at CIBC Private Wealth US, noted that a release was "well telegraphed" and therefore already priced into the market."Positioning across the crude complex has been drastically reduced over the past couple of weeks as traders lock in profits ahead of year end reducing the initial reaction," she added. Crude prices have pulled back after U.S. oil and Brent rose to their highest levels in seven and three years, respectively, in October.Tuesday's announcement follows the administration saying for months that it was looking into the tools at its disposal as West Texas Intermediate crude futures surged to a seven-year high, above $85.Prices at the pump have followed the ascent and are hovering around their highest level in seven years. The national average for a gallon of gas stood at $3.409 on Monday, according to AAA, up from $2.11 one year ago. Crude prices make up between 50% and 60% of what consumers pay to fill up their tanks, AAA said. "The President stands ready to take additional action, if needed, and is prepared to use his full authorities working in coordination with the rest of the world to maintain adequate supply as we exit the pandemic," the White House said in a statement.
Will Biden's release of oil reserves ease prices? Experts say it's unlikely -- Americans are unlikely to see a significant drop in gas prices immediately after the Biden administration's decision to release 50 million barrels of oil from the nation's reserve. However, several factors are already in play that may drive prices down. The White House announced the release of 50 million barrels from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) Tuesday morning. The announcement was made in concert with South Korea, China, Japan, India and the U.K., all of which will also release oil from their own strategic reserves.The rise in crude oil prices, and to some extent gasoline prices, has already slowed their upward climb amid negotiations in recent weeks, Tom Kloza, co-founder of the Oil Price Information Service, told The Hill.“Between Thanksgiving, and Groundhog Day, you normally see gasoline prices drop, because essentially, demand drops to about 2 million barrels a day less than it would be in the summertime,” Kloza added.“I think we're looking at maybe 60 to 75 days of wobbling a little bit lower,” he added, noting that both a steep plunge and a sharp increase are unlikely.Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy, told The Hill that oil prices had already been on the decline ahead of Tuesday’s announcement, and that other factors were also contributing to a reduction. One of the biggest, he said, was an increase in coronavirus cases in Europe, increasing the likelihood of new travel restrictions or lockdowns that would reduce demand.“Having said that, I think motorists will very soon in the next few days start to see the national average price of gasoline decline and it could decline anywhere from five to 15 cents a gallon over the next one to two weeks, and potentially more,” he said.That’s not guaranteed, however, because before the announcement was official, oil prices were lower, at about $76 a barrel, and “now that the announcement has been made, it does appear that the oil market is reacting with some disappointment,” he said.
Saudis, Russians Consider Pausing Oil Production Increases In Retaliation To Biden SPR Release When commenting on yesterday's SPR release announcement by the Biden admin and several assorted hanger-on nations - which has backfired spectacularly sending the price of oil soaring now that the rumor can no longer be sold so the news has to be bought in line with every single SPR release in the past..... we said that not only was the release far to small, but that in retaliation for the SPR release, "OPEC could easily consider halting its production hikes to offset the detrimental SPR impact of lower oil prices on the needed recovery in global oil capex, likely justifying such action as prudent in the face of COVID demand risks."Well, fast forward just a few hours when moments ago the WSJ reported that the leaders of OPEC+ and the world's two top oil producers Saudi Arabia and Russia, are considering a pause to their recent efforts to provide the world with more crude, citing to people familiar with those discussions. The move, as expected, is in retaliation to Washington releasing tens of millions of barrels of oil in an effort to lower prices.As a reminder, OPEC+ is meeting next week to review the long-term deal they reached earlier this year to boost their collective oil output - the deal involves boosting output by 400,000 barrels a day each month through next year, until the group hits its pre-pandemic pumping level and follows a sharp cut in output in 2020 as demand evaporated amid Covid-19 lockdowns.However, it now appears that OPEC+ may change its mind and not raise output at all; and while Biden is quick to note that oil prices have hovered near multiyear highs, OPEC and other forecasting agencies have struggled to predict demand amid the on-again-off-again nature of Covid-19 restrictions. Several countries in Europe, for instance, are moving ahead with, or considering, fresh restrictions that could sap economic activity—and by extension demand for oil. Meanwhile, the elephant in the room - the Biden-led crude release of up to 70 million barrels threatens to further scramble the supply-demand balance. As a result, and to compensate for the new supply, the WSJ confirmed our prediction and writes that Riyadh and Moscow are now considering a pause of the group’s monthly collective increase, even as US lackey, UAE - an OPEC member that has clashed with Saudi Arabia over OPEC policy in the past, and Kuwait are resisting a pause. Then again, what Russia and Saudi Arabia want, they will get. Saudi Arabia sees the released crude as potentially swelling global supply and threatening to reduce prices, according to people familiar with the country’s thinking. The question then is what will Biden do after a potential escalation in the oil war, and whether the US will halt oil exports in counter-retaliation. Such a move, as Goldman explained yesterday, would lead to a historic surge in oil prices and all hell breaking loose.
"I Don't Have That Number In Front Of Me" -- Perhaps The Most Basic Question Of All For An Energy Secretary -- November 23, 2021 --The Peter Principle in play. Link here. Reporter: "How many barrels of oil does the U.S. consume per day?" Biden's energy secretary: "I don't have that number in front of me" And a follow-up: what's the capacity -- either in gallons or barrels -- of Line 5? And does Line 5 import oil from Canada or export oil from the United States? A quick-thinking politico would have answered: "We'll provide a fact sheet for everyone after the press conference to make sure you have the exact numbers."
Japan to release a few hundred thousand kilolitres of oil from reserve (Reuters) - Japan will release a few hundred thousand kilolitres of oil from its national reserve, but the timing of the sale has not been made, the country's industry minister, Koichi Hagiuda, told reporters on Wednesday. Japan's Prime Minister Fumio Kishida said earlier that his government would release some oil reserves, after a U.S. request, in a way that does not breach a Japanese law, which only allows stock sales if there is a risk of supply disruption. One kilolitre is equal to 6.29 barrels of oil. Earlier the Nikkei newspaper reported that Japan will release about 4.2 million barrels of oil.
Goldman Sachs says global oil reserves release 'a drop in the ocean' (Reuters) - A coordinated release from government oil reserves led by the United States may add about 70 million to 80 million barrels of crude supply, smaller than the more-than-100 million barrels the market has been pricing in, analysts at Goldman Sachs said. "On our pricing model, such a release would be worth less than $2/bbl, significantly less than the $8/bbl sell-off that occurred since late October," the bank said in a note titled "A drop in the ocean", dated Nov. 23. Global oil prices rebounded to a one-week high on Tuesday after the move by the United States and other consumer nations to release oil from strategic petroleum reserves (SPR) to try to cool the market fell short of some expectations. On Wednesday, U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude CLc1 was down 35 cents to $78.15 a barrel by 0031 GMT. "The aggregate size of the release of about 70-80 mb (million barrels) was smaller than the 100+ mb the market had been pricing in, with the swap nature of most of these barrels implying an even smaller, about 40 million barrels net, increase in oil supplies over 2022-23," Goldman said. "That is in the context of a market drawing up to 2mb/d at present." Brent crude prices have also priced in an additional hit to global oil demand of 1.5 million barrels per day for the next three months from the impact of COVID-19 in Europe and China, Goldman said. While the coordinated government stock releases would warrant a $2 a barrel downgrade to the bank's year-end Brent price forecast, it expects the lack of progress on negotiations with Iran to offset risks.
No shock and awe after U.S.-led emergency oil release: Kemp (Reuters) - Oil prices rose after the U.S.-coordinated release of emergency petroleum stocks was announced on Tuesday, as the volume of extra petroleum offered to the market proved smaller than traders anticipated. The United States will make available 50 million barrels from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR), with deliveries beginning in mid-December and lasting through end-April 2022. The release includes 18 million barrels of outright sales previously mandated by Congress as part of the budget, which will be accelerated, and 32 million barrels of new swaps, which must be replaced no later than September 2024. The release "will be taken in parallel with other major energy consuming nations," including China, India, Japan, South Korea and the United Kingdom, the White House said in a statement. India has announced it will release 5 million barrels. Britain will allow refiners and importers to reduce their inventories by up to 1.5 million barrels, on a voluntary basis. Japan has indicated that it will release a few million barrels, though the amount has yet to be worked out. South Korea is discussing the details of its participation with the United States. But China has so far been non-committal, with the foreign ministry saying only that it would "organise a release of crude oil from state reserves according to its own actual needs". Unless China subsequently announces a very large draw down in its inventories, the global total is likely to be in the range of 60-75 million, far less than the 100 million barrels or more some in the market had expected. As a result, spot prices and calendar spreads both rose after the announcement, reversing some of their downward trend since the start of the month (Link). Front-month Brent futures rose by more than $2.60 per barrel on Tuesday, the largest one-day increase for three months, consistent with the stock release being smaller than expected. Brent’s calendar spread for the six-months between January and July 2022 rose by more than 40 cents per barrel, implying traders expect oil supplies to remain tight next year. Spot prices and especially spreads had been softening since the start of November, well before the release was formally announced. Some of this may have been in response to intensifying speculation about a future sale. The White House is likely to claim this shows the effectiveness of the stock release by reversing traders’ partially self-fulfilling expectations that spot prices and spreads would continue climbing. But it is hard to disentangle the impact of speculation about a stock release from other factors weighing on oil prices.
Biden Tapping Oil Reserves May Trigger OPEC War, Fail to Help Consumers: Strategists - President Joe Biden announced on Tuesday that he will be releasing 50 million barrels from the nation’s Strategic Petroleum Reserves (SPR) as part of coordination with several other advanced economies, including China, the United Kingdom, and India. The objective is to ease soaring energy prices by injecting more supply into global oil and gas markets.Soon after President Biden confirmed that the United States would be tapping into domestic inventories, December West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures erased their losses and rallied 2.5 percent to nearly $79 a barrel. December RBOB gasoline futures also turned positive during the session, hitting an intraday high of a little more than $2.80.Strategists note that investors had priced in the multilateral relief measure, confirming why WTI and Brent contracts had slipped as much as 5 percent over the last month.Damien Courvalin, Goldman Sachs commodity strategist, explained in a note to clients that Biden’s announcement was “fully priced in,” suggesting that financial markets agreed that this offers a short-term remedy to the structural deficit. Still, it might fail to address the fundamental issues in the volatile sector in the long run.Although Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm could not provide the amount of oil Americans consume each day during a Tuesday White House press briefing, Energy Information Administration (EIA) data show that consumers use between 18 and 20 million barrels a day. However, with 50 million barrels being pumped into the markets—18 million barrels of which will be going to China and India—the administration’s amount might only be enough for several days’ worth of consumption.Economists further purport that this will compound the problems weighing on the energy sector. By releasing oil from the SPR, the Biden administration could artificially lower prices. This would lead to a rise in demand and tightening inventories. Should prices slump, the downward trend would discourage greater crude exploration and output, contributing to deficits in global energy markets.Moreover, since these strategic reserves need to be replenished, industry observers aver that there will be an uptick in demand at a later period, referring to the policy as a “swap.” After the president approved the SPR release, it will take 13 days for these barrels of oil to reach the international marketplace.
Russia’s Oil Reserves Are Becoming Increasingly Hard To Recover - Nearly all of Russia’s oil production will consist of the so-called hard-to-recover crude reserves unless the country speeds up and incentivizes exploration, Russia’s Deputy Energy Minister Pavel Sorokin said on Wednesday.“Almost 100% of our production will be hard to recover over the term of ten years,” Sorokin said, as quoted by Russian news agency TASS.The hard-to-recover reserves will have much higher lifting costs than conventional reserves, according to the deputy energy minister.This is a problem for Russia, one of the world’s biggest oil producers, as it would see the quality of its reserves decline and make the extraction of oil much more expensive than it is now.Russia needs to incentivize exploration in order to replace the hard-to-recover reserves with new, potentially lower-cost, discoveries.In May this year, Russia’s Natural Resources Minister Alexander Kozlov said that oil reserves would last until 2080 at the current pace of annual production. Russia’s actual oil and gas reserves could even rise if it steps up exploration in hard-to-drill areas, the minister added, noting that Russia needs to develop exploration, including in hard-to-reach areas.Russia’s oil and gas discoveries fell to the lowest in five years in the first half of 2021, after last year’s crisis resulted in steep cuts in capital expenditures for exploration, data and analytics company GlobalData said earlier this month.In the first half this year, Russian companies found oil and gas at six very small fields, adding just 36 million barrels to reserves, which is equivalent to fewer than four days of Russian daily oil production, according to GlobalData’s estimates.
IEA says not enough oil and gas reaching consumers (Reuters) - Some countries have not taken a helpful position in terms of oil and gas prices, the head of the International Energy Agency said on Wednesday, saying not enough supply was reaching consumers. "(A) factor I would like to underline that caused these high prices is the position some of the major oil and gas suppliers, and some of the countries did not take, in our view, a helpful position in this context," Fatih Birol said in an online presentation. "Some of the key strains in today's markets may be considered artificial tightness ... because in oil markets today we see close to 6 million barrels per day in spare production capacity lies with the key producers, OPEC+ countries." The COP26 conference in Glasgow this month was a success, Birol added, saying the Paris-based agency's analysis showed commitments made at the meeting could reduce global temperature rises to 1.8 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels.
Gas explosion for Mushin Lagos claim lives - BBC News Pidgin - Three male adults don dey recovered from Tuesday gas explosion for Lagos, according to di State Fire Service . Di gas explode for Mushin area of Nigeria largest commercial city, Lagos in di morning. Di Director of di State Fire Service wey give dis informate inside statement no clear am if di three male adult dey recovered alive or dead. Margaret Adeeseye say rescue operation dey go on for di area. Gas explosion in Lagos: Gas wey explode for Mushin claim lives She add say informate about di gas incident land dia dormot around 8:45am on Tuesday and dem immediately begin rescue operation. However, eyewitnesses say at least five pipo wey include one teenager na im die for di gas explosion. Residents plus eyewitnesses say dem hear loud explosions for di busy market about 9:00am. Di Lagos State Fire Service say di scene of di incident na open space, where dem dey run plenty business operations. Gas explosions dey frequent for Lgos - Dis na foto of wia di Iju-Ishaga gas explosion bin happun for November 2020 in Lagos" Dis include beer parlour, mechanic workshop, spare parts sale and gas shop plus oda things. Di open space house makeshift structure. Dem tell BBC say di explosion affect several buildings wey include mechanic workshops, spare parts and gas shops. Cases of gas explosion dey common for Lagos and e dey attributed to operators' negligence and poor regulation.
FG adopts new strategy to tackle oil spill in Niger Delta The National Oil Spill Detection and Response Agency (NOSDRA) says it has rolled out strategies to tackle incessant oil spills in communities in the Niger Delta. NOSDRA Director-General, Idris Musa, disclosed this at a one-day Community-based Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR) plan on Tuesday in Port Harcourt, organised by NOSDRA to create awareness on the dangers of pipeline vandalism. Represented by Mr Oladipo Obanuwa, NOSDRA’s Director, Asset Safety and Mitigation, Musa said the new strategy involves the deployment of its DRR plan to all states in the region. “The DRR plan was first carried out in Bayelsa state in 2014, and will now be replicated in other oil-producing states and transit states. “The plan was developed by NOSDRA to create and sustain an interface with stakeholders that hitherto has not been effectively engaged in the effort to curb pipeline vandalism. “Even though crude oil spills can sometimes occur from failure of equipment, pipeline vandalism by unscrupulous elements contributes largely to this menace. “This menace has resulted in adverse socio-economic, health and environmental problems that have threatened the ecosystem and the people’s livelihood,” he said. Musa said the agency commenced test running the new strategy in Ikarama and Kalada communities as well as in 25 other participating communities between May 26 and August 27 2015. According to him, the DRR plan harmonises the roles and responsibilities of government, oil industry operators, host and transit communities, and other relevant stakeholders in addressing crude oil spills.r
Ijaw group demands $500,000 as FG probes Bayelsa oil spill - The Ijaw Diaspora Council has asked Aiteo Exploration and Production Ltd to provide immediate, interim response funding of at least $500,000 for the affected Ijaw people, to be used to support their initial sustenance in response to the spill. Aiteo Eastern Exploration and Production Company, the operator of Oil Mining Lease 29, said in a statement that it had on November 5 reported a hydrocarbon wellhead leak in its Santa Barbara, Southwest field, in Nembe Local Government Area of Bayelsa State. “This well, non-producing since Aiteo’s acquisition in 2015, was predominantly dormant, having been securely isolated since then,” it said, adding that an accurate cause of the leak had not been ascertained as it had been focused on containing the consequences of the incident. The company said immediately upon noticing the leak, it notified all relevant regulatory agencies and thereafter mobilised containment resources to limit the impact on the environment. An international oil spill advisor, Prof. Rick Steiner, who was appointed by the IDC as technical advisor, said in a statement, “After 15-20 days of continuous flow, the spill had already released a minimum of 150,000 barrels – 200,000 barrels of toxic hydrocarbons into the sensitive mangrove ecosystem in Nembe LGA, and possibly twice that much.” The IDC, in a letter addressed to the Chief Executive Officer, Aiteo Group, Mr Benedict Peters, said the major wellhead blowout from the oil well appeared to have begun on November 2, 2021. The letter was signed by the council’s President, Prof. Mondy Gold; Director of Community Outreach, Dr Festus Odubo, and the Director of Conflict Resolution, Dr Brisibe Nabena. It said, “From the evidence available, not limited to videos collected by local community members, it is estimated by international oil spill experts that the blowout has already spilled well over 100,000 barrels of toxic hydrocarbon fluids (methane and crude oil) into the productive coastal mangrove ecosystem. “We note that this is indeed a major spill by any standards, and its effects are clearly catastrophic ecologically, economically, and socially in the coastal communities affected.” Stating what it described as “specific urgent demands,” the council said
Nigerian oil spill: Santa Barbara River spoil wit weeks oil leak from AITEO OML 29 well1 - BBC News Pidgin - One oil and gas well wey leak inside Nembe, Bayelsa State, southern Nigeria still dey pour for di pass two weeks afta di oil spill occur. OML-29 Well-1 wey Aiteo Eastern Exploration and Production Company Ltd dey operate don dey pour for more than 14 days none stop. Di oil spill empty into River Santa Barbara for Nember and e don spread near Kula, a coastal community for neighbouring Rivers State. Di spill wey happen sake of alleged equipment failure don pollute rivers, waterways and farmlands. E don affect economic activities, pipo for di local communities wey be mostly fishermen no fit do any fishing activity since di oil spill happen on 5 November, 2021. Tori be say one four-year-old pikin for Nembe dey feared dead from alleged methane gas poisoning as a result of di oil spill. Ekine Japus, di President of Kula Youth Organizations Worldwide tell BBC Pidgin say di oil spill don spread cover di creeks and waterways. And e affect over 10 Kula communities wey include Aberebiya, Barapakama, Angbakiri, Kalawo kiri, New Camp and Inemaboko. Di oil spill also affect Robert kiri, Ofoinama, Belema and Kula main town. "Since dis oil spill happen, our pipo no fit go fishing because all di water dey polluted. "Our women sef no fit go pick periwinkle because all di mangroves dey covered wit crude oil from di spill and e dey spread to oda villages. "Three days ago we go visit di area to see di level of devastation and e dey massive." Di youth leader tok. "Evri wia dey smell. We don report to NOSDRA and even write to di oil company AITEO but we never get any response." E add Ekine Japus tok say "We also don report to DSS, di local goment council and to di State Ministries of Environment and Local goment affairs." "Wetin we want na for dem to stop di spill from di well head as e still dey spill crude oil. "And for di company to come clean up di area and pay compensation to di pipo because dem no fit do anytin since day time." Na so Oga Japus conclude.
Aiteo seeks international expertise to stop Bayelsa oil spillage - Aiteo Eastern Exploration and Production Company says it is seeking foreign technical expertise to halt the ongoing oil leak at an oilfield it operates in Nembe, Bayelsa State. The leak occurred on November 5. Aiteo, in a statement yesterday by its spokesman, Mathew Ndianabasi, noted that it has intensified its response by seeking the assistance of other oil and gas exploration firms to contain the spill. The statement is coming on the heels of a reaction by Governor Douye Diri, who criticised the pace of response and Aiteo’s inability to halt the leak, which has continued to pollute Nembe creeks and farmlands. Diri had warned the oil firm to be ready for the consequences of neglecting the negative impact of the incident believed to have been caused by equipment failure. The governor said his administration remained committed to defending the welfare of the impacted residents. The firm handed over four truckloads of food items, medical supplies and N5 million cash, while it battles to stop the leak. Aiteo, an indigenous oil firm, which acquired the Oil Mining Lease 29 following the 2015 divestment by Shell said that the leak was caused by sabotage by oil thieves who had become an obstacle to oil production and export from the asset. OML 29 acquired for about $2.4 billion, consists of the 97km Nembe Creek trunk line, which evacuates crude from onshore oil wells within the oil bloc and other operators to Bonny Export Terminal. “Though spills of this nature are not uncommon to the oil and gas industry, their resolution requires expert skills and equipment that are not routinely or readily available. “The typical process is to first kill the well and stop the leak and then focus on the clean-up, besides urgent possible technical responses to contain the leak. “Aiteo has sought active collaboration with Clean Nigeria Associates (CNA) and has since mobilised to site, in addition to Aiteo internal resources to reinforce containment and recovery efforts.
Guyana to request stronger financial guarantees from oil operators –official (Reuters) - Guyana is getting ready to raise requirements on oil operators to protect the nation against spills and future removal costs of production platforms, the head of its environmental agency told Reuters. Guyana currently requires financial assurance, a type of insurance, to cover emergency responses to accidents. Financial assurance is also used at times in some other countries to cover decommissioning infrastructure, especially offshore oil rigs. But as the newest South American crude-producing nation fashions a regulatory framework for its oil industry, it is pressing a consortium led by Exxon Mobil Corp for greater security, said Kemraj Parsram, head of Guyana's Environmental Protection Agency, in a interview last week. Under discussion with Exxon are a draft agreement that would adds parent guarantee and revise the type of events covered in the Exxon group's $5 billion self-insurance policy, he said. "We have to make sure there is adequate coverage," said Parsram. Exxon does not comment on commercial and regulatory discussions but follows international environmental standards where laws and regulations do not exist and goes beyond those where practical, spokesperson Meghan Macdonald said. Its existing agreement has "extensive assurances" and requires contractors "take responsibility for any adverse event," she said. The talks with Exxon, the operator in a group that includes Chinese state-run oil company CNOOC and Hess Corp, comes amid environmental permit reviews for a third project in the massive Stabroek block.
Indonesia awards PetroChina 20-year extension for Jabung block - Indonesia has awarded a contract extension to the Indonesian unit of China National Petroleum Corp (PetroChina), the country's oil and gas regulator said in a statement on Wednesday. The contract, which has been extended for 20 years from 2023 to 2043, is for Indonesia's Jabung oil and gas block. The Jabung block, located onshore in Jambi on Sumatra island, is Indonesia's seventh largest. From 1997 till the end of 2020, the block produced 362.22 million barrels oil equivalent of oil and gas. PetroChina began their operations there in 2002.
Oil futures hit by heavy selling: Kemp - (Reuters) - Petroleum futures and options were hit by heavy profit-taking last week as speculation about a potential release of strategic oil reserves and intensifying concerns about the state of the global economy hit sentiment. Hedge funds and other money managers sold the equivalent of 57 million barrels in the six most important petroleum-related futures and options contracts in the week to Nov. 16. Last week's sales were the highest for more than three months, according to position records from ICE Futures Europe and the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (https://tmsnrt.rs/30Os1n7). The heaviest selling was concentrated in NYMEX and ICE WTI (-34 million barrels) and Brent (-18 million), consistent with the possibility of a strategic stocks release led by the United States. Among the other contracts, sales of U.S. diesel (-2 million barrels) and European gas oil (-12 million) were largely offset by purchases of U.S. gasoline (+9 million). Across the six major contracts, portfolio managers have been sellers in five out of the last six weeks, reducing their positions by an aggregate 134 million barrels since Oct. 5. The combined position has fallen to 736 million barrels (66th percentile for all weeks since 2013) down from 871 million barrels (79th percentile) at the start of October. The adjustment has come mostly from the liquidation of previous bullish long positions (-115 million barrels) rather than the creation of new bearish shorts (+19 million), consistent with profit-taking after a big rally. As a result, the combined position has become less lopsided, with longs outnumbering shorts by a ratio of 5.3:1 (71st percentile) down from 7.0:1 (87th percentile) in mid-October. The transformation has been especially noticeable in Brent crude, where fund managers have cut their position by 111 million barrels in the last six weeks. Brent positions have fallen from 333 million barrels (68th percentile) to just 222 million barrels (41st percentile) while the long-short ratio has tumbled from 6.3:1 (68th percentile) to just 3.4:1 (31st percentile). By the start of October, speculation in the oil market had become overheated, with most investors anticipating further big gains in prices, even as prices were touching their highest level for three years. Since then, concerns about the sustainability of the global economic expansion and the resurgence of coronavirus cases in Europe and North America have taken some of the heat out of oil prices. The futures market is moving into the seasonally weaker half of the year, with talk about a coordinated release of strategic stocks adding to downward risks, prompting fund managers to realise some profits from the earlier rally.
Flush with cash, Saudi prince snubs Biden and sends a message - President Joe Biden sounded deeply frustrated. Inflation was heading toward a 30-year high and Americans, rich and poor, could see the price of gasoline going up almost daily. Politically, oil was toxic for the White House. "The idea that Russia and Saudi Arabia and other major producers are not going to pump more oil so people can have gasoline to get to and from work, for example, is not right," Biden said in late October. First in private and later more publicly, American envoys had spent weeks trying to convince the Saudis to pump more crude -- and quickly, according to officials on both sides. The diplomatic pressure was ultimately directed at a 36-year-old man who has the capacity to change the price of oil -- and the fortune of politicians in consuming nations -- on a whim: Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman. But the kingdom’s day-to-day ruler didn't budge despite the overtures from American diplomats. Prince Mohammed was more worried about oil’s supply and demand fundamentals than the political needs of Washington. But if Biden wanted cheaper gasoline, the prince had his own wish list, including something he hasn’t yet got from the current White House -- access. Since taking office, Biden has only spoken with King Salman, Prince Mohammed’s father, and refused to deal directly with the crown prince, who’s still seen as a pariah in the U.S. after the killing of Washington Post columnist Jamal Khashoggi in 2018. “There’s a lot of Middle Eastern folks who want to talk to me,” Biden said in October, without directly naming Prince Mohammed. “I’m not sure I’m going to talk to them.” Ultimately, Biden didn't get the extra oil he wanted, forcing him to respond on Tuesday by tapping the country's strategic petroleum reserve -- a decision that risks a further escalation from the Saudi-led OPEC+ cartel. For Prince Mohammed, sitting atop what’s sometimes described as the central bank of oil, soaring crude prices are giving him the confidence to demand the attention of Biden, and everyone else. The influx of cash also helps his plan to make the kingdom a global investment powerhouse through the US$450 billion Public Investment Fund, the sovereign wealth fund which he also chairs and wants to grow to US$1 trillion by 2025.
Oil Futures Wobble as EU Lockdowns Fuel Demand Fears -- At the beginning of a holiday-shortened trade week, oil futures nearest delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange and Brent crude traded on the Intercontinental Exchange moved mixed, with expanded COVID-19 restrictions across European Union and chatter of potential Strategic Petroleum Reserve releases in Japan and China countering signs of strengthening fuel demand in the United States, with the number of Americans taking to the roads for the Thanksgiving holiday this week projected to reach pre-pandemic levels. High-frequency data suggests fuel demand in the United States will likely climb to its pre-pandemic level this week in the lead up to the Thanksgiving holiday on Thursday, with American Automotive Association projecting over 50 million Americans will hit the road this week. Furthermore, Transportation Security Administration reported Sunday passenger throughput at U.S. airports topped 2 million -- 12% below the level reported two years ago. Air travel is expected to be up 80% from last Thanksgiving. Demand for jet fuel in the United States has already recovered nearly 70% from the pandemic-caused contraction, according to the Energy Information Administration.In the most recent week, gasoline demand stood near 9.241 million barrels per day (bpd) -- about 100,000 bpd above the five-year average. If gasoline demand follows pre-COVID seasonality, it would trend lower through the fourth quarter before a final surge amid the Christmas holiday.Contrasting with reopenings in the United States, several European countries expanded COVID-19 restrictions this week in their bid to slow the viral spread heading into holiday season. Austria announced a fourth nationwide lockdown starting Monday, becoming the first EU country to take such a measure in the face of the COVID-19 resurgence.The announcement came days after Chancellor Alexander Schellenberg introduced a targeted lockdown for unvaccinated -- a measure that was widely expected to be insufficient to contain the viral spread. Additionally, Germany -- the EU's largest economy -- will introduce next week tighter COVID-19 restrictions on unvaccinated citizens, with most regions already barring unvaccinated citizens from public places such as restaurants and concert halls.
Oil Prices Settle up 1% on Reports OPEC+ Could Reassess Output (Reuters) -Oil prices rose on Monday, rebounding from recent losses, on reports that OPEC+ could adjust plans to raise oil production if large consuming countries release crude from their reserves or if the coronavirus pandemic dampens demand. Brent crude futures rose 81 cents, or 1%, to settle at $79.70 a barrel. WTI crude futures rose 81 cents, or 1%, to settle at $76.75 a barrel. Prices of the Brent and U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude benchmarks fell more than $1 in early trading, hitting their lowest levels since Oct. 1. Japanese and Indian officials are working on ways to release national reserves of crude oil in tandem with the United States and other major economies to dampen prices, seven government sources with knowledge of the plans told Reuters. Such an announcement could come as early as Tuesday, according to a source familiar with the discussions, but White House and U.S. energy department officials said no official decision on a release had been made. The discussions have come after the U.S. government was unable to persuade the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies including Russia, known as OPEC+, to pump more oil with major producers arguing the world was not short of crude. The producer group agreed this month to stick to plans to raise oil output by 400,000 barrels per day (bpd) from December. Oil prices rose after Bloomberg News reported that OPEC+ may alter plans to keep boosting production, citing delegates. Reuters has not verified the report. "OPEC is sending a signal that if these players do this, they have some barrels they can withhold and will offset the impact of a release,"
Oil Up on Underwhelming SPR Announcement - Oil climbed by the most in two weeks as a landmark plan from consumer countries to tap their strategic oil reserves was less severe than markets expected. Futures in New York rose rose 2.3% after Tuesday’s statement from the White House announcing strategic reserve release. While the headline size of the U.S. release is large, a significant chunk of the crude will be borrowed -- to be returned later -- leaving traders expecting tighter balances down the line. The U.S. is making the move in concert with China, Japan, India, South Korea and the U.K.Oil prices have hit multiyear highs in recent months amid a global energy crisis that’s added hundreds of thousands of barrels a day to consumption, while the world economy is grappling with surging inflation. The decision puts major consumers on a collision course with OPEC+, which views such a release as unjustified and may reconsider plans to add more supply at a meeting on Dec. 2.“From OPEC’s perspective, a cautious ramp-up is still the way to go,” said Damien Courvalin, the head of energy research at Goldman Sachs Group Inc,, in a Bloomberg Television interview on Tuesday. “OPEC has no incentive to increase production aggressively and the SPR release probably comforts them.”The main announcements so far are:
- U.S.: 50 million barrels, 18 million of which are accelerated pre-approved sales while the remaining 32 million are part of an exchange
- India: 5 million barrels
- Japan: Several days worth of volume, according to local media
- China: At least 7.33 million barrels, according to industry consultant JLC
- South Korea: Said it would release an unspecified volume
- U.K.: 1.5 million barrels
“The added supply to the market is pretty small in the grand scheme of things,” said Rob Thummel, a portfolio manager at Tortoise, a firm that manages roughly $8 billion in energy-related assets. “Clearly, the oil price was expecting something bigger than this.” Despite Tuesday’s rally, crude prices have dropped close to $10 from earlier this month as the U.S. signaled it may tap its reserves. The diplomatic push has also led to weaker so-called timespreads for nearby months. West Texas Intermediate crude’s prompt spread traded at 56 cents a barrel, down from about $1.79 a barrel in late October.
Oil Futures Rally on Expected OPEC Response to SPR Release -- Oil futures nearest delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange and Brent crude traded on the Intercontinental Exchange rallied Tuesday, lifting the U.S. crude benchmark above $78 barrel (bbl) as traders assessed risks of a potential supply response from the OPEC+ alliance to the multilateral release of petroleum reserves held by oil-consuming nations orchestrated by the Biden administration in a bid to lower domestic gasoline prices.Oil traders dismissed Biden's plan to release as much as 50 million bbl of crude oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve as a shortsighted and inadequate solution to rising inflation.In breaking down Tuesday morning's announcement from the Biden administration, out of the 50 million bbl of crude to be released, 32 million bbl would eventually be returned to the strategic reserve over the months ahead to replenish stockpiles, according to Department of Energy officials. Another 18 million bbl will be released as an acceleration of an oil sale authorized by Congress two months ago. Secondly, an SPR release would not change market fundamentals that are already tilting towards oversupply, according to all major forecasting agencies. As of Nov. 12, the U.S. SPR held 609.4 million bbl of crude in underground caverns in Louisiana and Texas, with the Congressional intent of the reserve for use in emergency situations such as natural disasters and wars, not to control oil prices. The last time there was international coordination in releasing strategic reserves was in response to a supply disruption in Libya when the nation plunged into civil war more than decade ago. This time, the White House faces growing political pressure to lower domestic gasoline prices as millions of Americans hit the roads for this week's Thanksgiving holidays.Retail gasoline prices across the United States are averaging $3.40 gallon this week, a seven-year high and more than $1 above a year ago.The plan also envisions other major oil consuming nations to release some of their crude stockpiles, but details of that release are not yet clear, especially in China and Japan. So far, India announced a 5 million bbl release from its nationwide petroleum stocks and United Kingdom pledged a 1.5 million bbl sale from strategic reserves.The release clearly failed to deliver the outcome the Biden administration hoped for, with both crude benchmarks reversing overnight losses to surge as much as 3% in the immediate reaction to the announcement.
Oil Futures Wobble Ahead of EIA Report, US Economic Data -- Following Tuesday's explosive rally triggered by chatter, OPEC+ will agree to deepen production cuts at their December meeting, oil futures nearest delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange and Brent crude traded on the Intercontinental Exchange softened in early trade Wednesday after industry data from the American Petroleum Institute reported U.S. commercial crude and gasoline inventories unexpectedly increased for the week ended Nov. 19, while an overnight rally in U.S. Dollar Index tied to the release of key economic data domestically further pressured the oil complex. Near 7:30 a.m. ET, NYMEX West Texas Intermediate futures for January delivery reversed overnight losses to trade near $78.69 per barrel (bbl), and international benchmark ICE January Brent traded little changed near $82.38 bbl. Both benchmarks rallied as much as 3% in the previous session. NYMEX RBOB December futures declined 1.51 cents to $2.3221 gallon and front-month NYMEX ULSD added 0.27 cents to $2.3870 gallon. The API data released late afternoon Tuesday was bearish for the oil complex, showing domestic crude oil inventories increased by 2.3 million bbl last week, contrasting sharply with market estimates for an 800,000 bbl drawdown. Gasoline stocks also unexpectedly gained 600,000 bbl from the previous week, while the market estimated a 500,000 bbl decline. Distillate stocks, meanwhile, declined by 1.5 million bbl, well above estimates for a 700,000 bbl draw. DTN Refined Fuels Demand data showed demand for diesel fuel in the United States decreased 0.1% in the reviewed week, likely having peaked seasonally for the fourth quarter, while remaining up 6.8% relative to the same week in 2019. Gasoline demand also decreased 0.1% last week, according to DTN Refined Fuels Demand data, while U.S. demand is down just 0.8% compared to the same week in 2019. Analysts previously projected gasoline demand would push higher this week in the lead up to Thanksgiving Day Thursday, with over 53 million Americans projected to hit the roads for the extended holiday period. Also, year-on-year strength in both gasoline demand and diesel demand should be expected to increase in the coming weekly reports from the Energy Information Administration given that at this time last year the United States was seeing the strongest surge of COVID-19 cases and hospitalizations of the pandemic.
WTI Holds Post-SPR-Release Gains After Surprise Crude Build - Crude prices are holding gains from yesterday's 'epic fail' SPR release after an unexpected crude build. Source: Bloomberg Stocks at the Cushing hub rose by the most since October, while marking a second weekly rise. Volumes are now sitting at a four-week high. Gasoline inventories continued to slide and are still at a four-year low as refineries runs continue to lag demand. Commercial crude stockpiles rose by just over 1 million barrels, which wasn’t much, considering that another 1.64 million barrels was drawn out of the SPR. If you add those two together, total U.S. Crude stockpiles actually fell by 625,000 barrels. Crude production rose last week, back to post-COVID highs... WTI is holding its post-SPR release gains... Total product supplied, a measure of oil consumption, is now sitting at the lowest volume since June on a four-week average. Seasonally we are over a million barrels a day short of 2019 figures when covid wasn’t a concern. Finally, there's no relief insight for record-California gasoline prices. West Coast gasoline stockpiles are at a fresh two-year low with the region still catching up from a spate of refinery outages that began with the Bay Area floods last month. Does Biden still have tools?
Oil Futures Mixed as US Crude Stocks Build, Products Draw -- Crude and refined product futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange moved mixed in midmorning trade Wednesday, with front-month West Texas Intermediate edging higher following the release of government data showing U.S. crude oil inventories unexpectedly increased during the week ended Nov. 19 and domestic production rose to 11.5 million barrels per day (bpd), offsetting larger-than-expected drawdown from fuel supplies as demand for petroleum products pushed higher ahead of the holiday season. Midmorning inventory data reported nationwide crude oil supplies increased 1 million barrels (bbl) from the previous week to 434 million bbl and are now about 7% below the five-year average. Earlier this week, analysts expected crude inventories would decline by 800,000 bbl. The crude build was realized even as domestic refiners increased run rates for the fifth consecutive week through Nov. 19, up 0.7% to 88.6%, compared with analyst expectations for a 0.3% increase. Domestic crude oil production, meanwhile, increased 100,000 bpd to 11.5 million, according to EIA. Oil stored at the Cushing, Oklahoma, hub -- the delivery point for WTI futures -- rose 787,000 bbl from the previous week to 27.4 million bbl. Additionally, gasoline stockpiles declined by 602,992 bbl from the previous week to 211.4 million bbl compared with analyst expectations for inventories to have decreased 500,000 bbl. Demand for motor gasoline gained 93,000 bpd from the previous week to 9.334 million bbl, while remaining more than 100,000 above the five-year average. Gasoline consumption in the United States typically strengthens heading into the Thanksgiving holiday, with over 53 million Americans expected to hit the road this week, according to the American Automobile Association. Distillate stocks fell 2 million bbl to 121.7 million bbl and are now about 5% below the five-year average. Analysts had estimated a smaller 700,000 million bbl decline from the previous week. Distillate demand extended higher for the third consecutive week to 4.391 million bpd. Total commercial petroleum inventories decreased 6 million bbl last week. Total products supplied over the last four-week period averaged 20.7 million bpd, up 7% from the same period last year. Over the past four weeks, motor gasoline product supplied averaged 9.3 million bpd, up 11.5% from the same period last year. Distillate fuel product supplied averaged 4.2 million bpd over the past four weeks, up 3% from the same period last year. Jet fuel product supplied was up 40.4% compared with the same four-week period last year. In late morning trading, NYMEX January WTI futures advanced $0.33 to trade at $78.83 bbl and NYMEX December RBOB futures traded unchanged near $2.3385 gallon. The front-month ULSD contract gained to $2.4025 gallon, up 1.82 cents on the session so far.
Oil skids on concerns of rising surplus in Q1 (Reuters) - Oil prices slid more than 1% on Friday on concerns that a global supply surplus could swell in the first quarter following a coordinated release of crude reserves among major consumers, led by the United States. Brent crude futures LCOc1 extended declines for a third session, falling 96 cents, or 1.2%, to $81.26 a barrel by 0130 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude CLc1 was down $1.35, or 1.7%, at $77.04 a barrel. There was no settlement for WTI on Thursday because of Thanksgiving holiday. U.S. President Joe Biden's administration announced plans on Tuesday to release millions of barrels of oil from strategic reserves in coordination with other large consuming nations, including China, India and Japan, to try to cool prices. Such a release is likely to swell supplies in coming months, an OPEC source said, according to the findings of a panel of experts that advises ministers of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC). The Economic Commission Board (ECB) expects a 400,000 barrels-per-day (bpd) surplus in December, expanding to 2.3 million bpd in January and 3.7 million bpd in February if consumer nations go ahead with the release, the OPEC source said. Forecasts of rising surplus oil clouds the outlook of the meeting between OPEC and allies, a group known as OPEC+, on Dec. 2 to decide on immediate production. The group is to decide whether it will continue raising output by 400,000 bpd in January. Still, the benchmark contracts are set to post their first weekly gain in nearly a month as the overall volume of the crude reserve release estimated at 70 million to 80 million barrels was smaller than market participants expected.
Oil prices dive to two-month lows on Covid-19 variant, surplus jitters | Deccan Herald -- Oil prices dived more than 5% on Friday, hitting a two-month low as a new COVID-19 variant spooked investors and added to concerns that a supply surplus could swell in the first quarter. Oil fell with global equities markets on fears the variant could dampen economic growth and fuel demand. Britain and the European states have restricted travel from southern Africa, where the variant was detected. Brent crude fell $4.28, or 5.2%, to $77.94 a barrel by 1329 GMT. US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude was down $4.31, or 5.5%, at $74.08 a barrel, after Thursday's Thanksgiving holiday in the United States. Both contracts are heading for their fifth week of losses. Investors were also watching China's response to the US release of millions of barrels of oil from strategic reserves in coordination with other large consuming nations, part of its bid to cool prices. Such a release is likely to swell supplies in coming months, an OPEC source said, based on findings of a panel of experts that advises ministers of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries. The Economic Commission Board expects a surplus of 400,000 barrels per day (bpd) in December, rising to 2.3 million bpd in January and 3.7 million bpd in February if consumer nations went ahead with the releases, the OPEC source said. The forecasts cloud the outlook for a Dec. 2 meeting of OPEC and its allies, known as OPEC+, when the group will discuss whether to adjust its plan to increase output by 400,000 bpd in January and beyond. "OPEC's initial assessment of the co-ordinated (stockpile) release and the sudden appearance of a new variant of the coronavirus raises serious concerns about economic growth and the oil balance in coming months," PVM analyst Tamas Varga said. Iranian production was also in focus, with indirect talks due to resume on Monday between Iran and the United States on reviving a 2015 nuclear deal that could lead to the lifting of US sanctions on Iranian oil exports. However, the failure of Iran and the International Atomic Energy Agency to reach even a modest agreement on monitoring of Tehran's nuclear facilities this week bodes poorly for next week's talks, Eurasia analyst Henry Rome said.
Oil drops 13% in worst day of 2021, breaks below $70 as new Covid variant sparks global demand concerns - Oil posted its worst day of the year on Friday, tumbling to the lowest level in more than two months as the new Covid-19 strain sparked fears about a demand slowdown just as supply increases. The leg lower came amid a broad sell-off in the market with the Dow dropping more than 900 points. The World Health Organization warned Thursday of a new Covid variant detected in South Africa. It could be more resistant to vaccines thanks to its mutations, although the WHO said further investigation is needed. U.S. oil settled 13.06%, or $10.24, lower at $68.15 per barrel, falling below the key $70 level. It was the contract's worst day since April 2020. WTI also closed below its 200-day moving average — a key technical indicator — for the first time since November 2020. International benchmark Brent crude futures slid 11.55% to settle at $72.72 per barrel. Both contracts registered their fifth straight week of losses for the longest weekly losing streak since March 2020. A decrease in travel and potential new lockdowns, both of which could hit demand, come just as supply is about to increase. "It appears that the discovery of a Covid-19 variant in southern Africa is spooking markets across the board. Germany is already limiting travel from several nations in the affected region," "The last thing that the oil complex needs is another threat to the air travel recovery," he added. On Tuesday the Biden Administration announced plans to release 50 million barrels of oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. The move is part of a global effort by energy-consuming nations to calm 2021′s rapid rise in fuel prices. India, China, Japan, South Korea and the U.K. will also release some of their reserves. "This [the sell-off] is attributable to concerns about a sizeable oversupply in early 2022 that is set to be brought about by the upcoming release of strategic oil reserves in the US and other major consumer countries, plus the ongoing steep rise in new coronavirus cases," noted analysts at Commerzbank. "Furthermore, an even more transmissible variant of the virus has been discovered in South Africa, prompting a noticeable increase in risk aversion on the financial markets today." OPEC and its oil-producing allies are set to meet on Dec. 2 to discuss production policy for January and beyond. The group has slowly eased the historic output cuts it agreed to in April 2020 as the coronavirus sapped demand for petroleum products. Since August the group, known as OPEC+, has returned 400,000 barrels per day to the market each month. The group has maintained its gradual taper despite calls from the White House and others to hike output as oil prices surged to multi-year highs. West Texas Intermediate crude futures hit a seven-year high in October, while Brent rose to a three-year high. U.S. oil is now down more than $15 since its October high of $85.41. "The coordinated SPR release is getting a second look, as well, especially with OPEC decrying it and asserting that the release will tip the global market back into surplus. The release is much more than just a drop in the bucket,"
Oil prices are headed for $100 despite U.S. efforts to release reserves, analyst says - Oil prices could climb higher despite the U.S. and other major consumers releasing millions of barrels of oil from their reserves to try to keep energy prices down, one analyst told CNBC. "It's not going to work simply because the strategic petroleum reserve — any country's strategic petroleum reserve is not there to try to manipulate price," Stephen Schork, editor of the Schork Report, said Wednesday on CNBC's "Squawk Box Asia." Strategic petroleum reserves exist only to offset short-term, unexpected supply disruptions, he explained. "There's a considerable amount of bets out there that we will see $100 a barrel oil," Schork said, adding it could happen as early as the first quarter of next year, especially if there is a cold winter in the Northern Hemisphere. Oil prices have jumped more than 50% this year, with demand outstripping supply as more countries emerge from national lockdowns and severe restrictions imposed since last year due to the pandemic. Resumption of international travel as more nations re-open borders is also boosting jet fuel demand. Global benchmark Brent surpassed the psychologically key threshold of $80 per barrel in October and prices have held near that level. As of Wednesday afternoon in Asia, the international contract traded near $82.50. It is a clear sign of desperation that this is the only tool in the box and it is not going to work. U.S. President Joe Biden announced Tuesday that the U.S. will release 50 million barrels from its reserves as part of a global effort by energy-consuming countries to calm the rapid rise in fuel prices. Of that total, 32 million barrels will be an exchange over the next few months, and 18 million barrels will be an acceleration of a previously authorized sale. Other countries that made the joint commitment include China, India, Japan, South Korea and the United Kingdom. So far, the U.K. has agreed to release about 1.5 million barrels while India committed to 5 million barrels. China, Japan and South Korea have yet to announce specific numbers. "We are talking 50 million barrels coming out of the United States, potentially another 50 from our partners. That's 100 million barrels of oil — that is one day's worth of a global demand for crude oil," Schork said.
Russian rouble drops to 7-month low vs dollar as oil prices slide (Reuters) - The Russian rouble lost more than 1% against the dollar on Friday, sinking to a more than seven-month low as oil prices dived and as geopolitical concerns that have buffeted Russian assets all week remained on investors' minds. A global increase in risk aversion related to the detection of a new coronavirus variant also put pressure on the rouble. At 0650 GMT, the rouble was 0.9% weaker against the dollar at 75.34, earlier hitting 75.78, its weakest point since April 22. It had lost 1% to trade at 84.60 versus the euro EURRUBTN=MCX , earlier passing the 85 mark for the first time since lat September. The backdrop was particularly unfavourable for the rouble on Friday, said Promsvyazbank analysts in a note, suggesting that the currency would end the day trading nearer to 76 versus the greenback. The rouble has fallen in the past few weeks, weakening from a multi-month peak of 69.21 in late October, coming under selling pressure related to Western concerns over possible Russian military intervention in Ukraine. Russia has dismissed such concerns and has also complained about increasing activity in the region by the NATO military alliance. Brent crude oil LCOc1 , a global benchmark for Russia's main export, was down 2.8% at $79.95 a barrel.
Red Cross official 'livid' over holdups for Afghan aid -A senior Red Cross official expresses his frustration over the holdups of aid to Afghanistan pushing the healthcare system to the brink, Reuters reported. International Committee of the Red Cross operational director Dominik Stillhart said Monday the organization began paying salaries and providing medical supplies to 18 medical facilities in the country to prevent them from collapsing. Stillhart told reporters that salaries at government-run hospitals have been unpaid for months, leading some nurses to quit, and requiring others to walk to work for two hours as they can't afford transportation, according to Reuters. "Every single person I spoke to, be it hospital staff, patients, people in the street — they are seriously worried about how to make ends meet in the coming months," Stillhart said, via Reuters. "I am livid," he added. Stillhart added that cases of severe malnutrition, pneumonia and dehydration have doubled since August and September, causing up to three children to be squeezed into a single bed. Humanitarian workers have complained that the United Nations and the Taliban share responsibility for causing confusion that is preventing willing donors from increasing the aid flow, Reuters reported.
Japan's factory activity grows at fastest pace in nearly four years -Flash PMI (Reuters) - Japan's factory activity grew at the fastest pace in nearly four years in November, as output accelerated on loosening COVID-19 restrictions, defying pressure from the biggest jump in input prices in 13 years. Activity in the services sector also accelerated, expanding at the fastest pace in more than two years as economic conditions stabilised after a sharp decline in COVID-19 cases and deaths thanks to soaring vaccinations. The au Jibun Bank Flash Japan Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) rose to a seasonally adjusted 54.2, its fastest pace of expansion since January 2018. The reading, which was lifted by a pickup in overall output and new orders, compared to a final 53.2 in the previous month. "Activity at Japanese private sector businesses rose for the second month running in November," said Usamah Bhatti, economist at IHS Markit, which compiles the survey. Manufacturers' optimism for the year ahead eased slightly from the previous month, according to the survey, which also showed firms across sectors faced soaring price pressures. "Input prices across the private sector rose at the fastest pace for over 13 years with businesses attributing the rise to higher raw material, freight and staff costs amid shortages and deteriorating supplier performance," Bhatti said.
Store clerk killed after asking customer to wear mask - Taipei Times - A convenience store clerk in Taoyuan was yesterday allegedly stabbed to death by a customer after asking the customer to wear a mask. The incident occurred a little after 5am at a store on Guangfong Street in Gueishan District (龜山), police said. When the suspect, surnamed Chiang (蔣), 41, entered the store without wearing a mask, the 30-year-old clerk, surnamed Tsai (蔡), asked that he put one on, police said. Taoyuan Criminal Investigation Brigade officers yesterday escort a man accused of stabbing a convenience store clerk to death. Chiang exited the store and came back wearing a mask, they said, adding that after paying for his items he took it off and threw it at Tsai before leaving. Chiang returned shortly afterward and called for the clerk to come out from behind the counter, where he allegedly stabbed him repeatedly in the left side of his chest, they added. A witness reported the incident to the police, and paramedics arriving at the scene found Tsai with three 3cm knife wounds in his chest, police said, adding that he lost consciousness soon afterward. Tsai lost vital signs in the ambulance and could not be resuscitated, they added. Police said that Chiang was in a stupor when he was brought into the station, but began to express remorse after realizing what had happened and admitted guilt under questioning. The knife allegedly used in the stabbing is reportedly a tool Chiang used in his line of work as a paper-cutting artist, they added. Tsai’s father arrived at the police station in shock, repeatedly asking how his son could have died while at work, police said. Taoyuan Mayor Cheng Wen-tsan (é„文燦) on Facebook condemned the “hair-raising brutality” of the act, and said he has called for a full investigation and severe punishment. He has instructed the city government to fully assist Tsai’s family with funeral and any other arrangements, Cheng added. The stabbing was the latest in a series of violent attacks targeting convenience store clerks for requesting compliance with the government’s mask mandate.
Asian FX, stocks drop on new coronavirus variant concerns (Reuters) - Shares and currencies in Asia's emerging markets fell sharply on Friday, as investors fled riskier assets after the detection of a new and possibly vaccine-resistant coronavirus variant, which in-turn strengthened safe-haven assets like the dollar. Indian stocks .NSEI dropped more than 2% to hit their lowest since early September, while shares in Taiwan .TWII , South Korea .KS11 , Singapore .STI , Thailand .SETI and Indonesia .JKSE fell between 1.5% and 1.6%. Scientists have said the new COVID-19 variant, detected in South Africa, may be able to evade immune responses. British authorities think it is the most significant variant to date and worry it could make vaccines less effective and hurt efforts to fight the pandemic. "With the delta wave in mind from earlier this year, investors are likely to shoot first and ask questions later until more is known about it (the new coronavirus variant)," Jeffrey Halley, senior market analyst, Asia Pacific, OANDA, said in a note. The news about the South African variant ramped up selling pressure in regional markets, already reeling under broad dollar strength due to bets that an increasingly hawkish U.S. Federal Reserve will lift rates by the middle of next year. "Risk-off trades owing to (the) new South African variant scare was the dominant driver while (the) policy divergence thematic takes a back seat,"
China stocks close lower on 19 concerns(Reuters) - China stocks closed lower on Friday as domestic COVID-19 cases and a new and possibly vaccine-resistant coronavirus variant weighed on investor sentiment, with semiconductor-related and energy shares leading the drop. The blue-chip CSI300 index .CSI300 fell 0.7%, to 4,860.13, while the Shanghai Composite Index .SSEC lost 0.6% to 3,564.09 points. ** For the week, the CSI300 index shed 0.6%, while the Shanghai Composite Index edged up 0.1%. ** A handful of local COVID-19 cases in eastern parts of China have prompted Shanghai city to limit tourism activities and a nearby city to cut public transportation services. ** That sent tourism stocks .CSI930633 and consumer staples .CSICS down 1.8% and 0.8%, respectively.
India rupee at 3-week low, yields fall on new COVID variant concerns (Reuters) - The Indian rupee dropped to its lowest level in three weeks and bond yields fell on Friday as concerns over a new COVID variant spooked markets across the globe. Shares and currencies in Asia's emerging markets fell sharply as investors fled riskier assets after the detection of the significant new mutation, which in-turn strengthened safe-haven assets like the dollar. The partially convertible rupee INR=IN was trading 74.71/72 per dollar at 0736 GMT compared to its close of 74.51. It touched a low of 74.5850 earlier, its lowest since Nov. 2. The benchmark 10-year bond yield IN061031G=CC was trading at 6.32%, down 5 basis points from its close on Thursday. "Buying being seen in bonds is largely on account of the new variant today. The market now expects the RBI to be dovish due to the uncertainty,"
Markets tumble as a new coronavirus variant brings back travel restrictions. - Stocks around the world tumbled on Friday, along with oil prices, after evidence of a new coronavirus variant detected in South Africa prompted some countries to reinstate travel restrictions, reigniting concerns about the economic toll the pandemic could impose after months of recovery. The S&P 500 dropped 1.3 percent and European markets fell 3 to 4 percent. Futures of West Texas Intermediate oil, the U.S. crude benchmark, fell more than 6 percent to $73.39 a barrel. Demand for the relative safety of government bonds jumped, pushing their prices up and their yields down. The yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury plunged as much as 13 basis points, or 0.13 percentage point, to 1.50 percent, the most since Nov. 4, 2020, the day after the U.S. presidential election. But by market open in the U.S., the drop had eased and yields traded at about 1.53 percent. The yield on Germany’s bund, Europe’s benchmark bond, fell 7 basis points to minus 0.32 percent. The number of mutations in this new variant has raised fears that it could be especially contagious, and caused concern about the effectiveness of current vaccines. But scientists haven’t come to any conclusions yet. “As long as markets are faced with a familiar virus situation that can be overcome with a sufficiently crafted and executed vaccination strategy, the reactions will be muted,” analysts at Royal Bank of Canada wrote in a note to clients. “This new variant, however, creates a potential threat to the known responses and thus creates a more lasting market response.” U.S. stock markets were closed on Thursday for the Thanksgiving holiday and will close early on Friday afternoon. Thin trading in markets because of the holidays can exacerbate the swings. In a hark back to the fluctuations in markets last year, stocks that flourished under lockdowns and staying at home rose in early trading, including Zoom, Netflix and Peloton. Meanwhile companies vulnerable to travel restrictions, like Carnival, the cruise company, and Boeing, the plane maker, fell. In Europe, energy stocks led the markets lower. The Stoxx Europe 600 index fell 2.5 percent. The FTSE 100 in Britain dropped 3 percent, while major stock indexes in France and Spain fell by nearly 4 percent. In Asia, the Nikkei 2225 in Japan closed 2.5 percent lower and the Hang Seng index in Hong Kong closed down 2.7 percent. As several countries including Britain and France rushed to restrict flights from South Africa and other countries in the region, airline stocks dropped. IAG, the parent company of British Airways, fell more than 13 percent, the biggest fall in the FTSE 100.
South African markets tumble on new 19 variant(Reuters) - The South African rand sank below 16.00 to the dollar for the first time this year on Friday as, with investors unnerved by the discovery of a significant coronavirus variant in the country, government bonds and shares also tumbled.Stock declines were led by a sharp drop in hospitality shares, as Britain and some other countries restricted travel to South Africa and its neighbours.Britain also said that, because of mutations, the virus variant was considered by scientists to be the most significant one yet found."Risk-off trade as new COVID-19 variant in South Africa potentially the Grinch that steals Christmas," "Momentum was already to the topside for the USD due to positioning for more aggressive (Federal Reserve) monetary tightening in the months ahead, and the discovery of this new variant ...will severely diminish the ZAR's resilience against this broader USD move."
Travel restrictions multiply for African countries over fears of a new variant. - European countries on Friday joined Singapore, Israel and others in restricting travel from southern Africa in a frantic effort to keep a newly identified, and apparently significantly evolved, variant of the coronavirus from crossing into their borders. In the past, governments have taken days, weeks or months to issue travel restrictions in response to new variants. This time, restrictions came within hours of South Africa’s announcement — at least 10 countries around the world had announced measures before South African scientists had finished a meeting with World Health Organization experts about the variant on Friday. There is no proof yet that the variant could diminish the protective power of the vaccines, but uncertainty on that question was one factor in the speed of countries’ move toward restrictions. The new variant, initially called B.1.1.529, has a “very unusual constellation of mutations,” according to Tulio de Oliveira, director of the KwaZulu-Natal Research and Innovation Sequencing Platform. On the protein that helps to create an entry point for the coronavirus to infect human cells, the new variant has 10 mutations, many more than the dangerous Delta variant, Professor de Oliveira said. Still, even epidemiologists who have been the most outspoken in urging protection from the virus urged calm on Friday, noting that little is known about the variant and that several seemingly threatening variants have come and gone in recent months. “Substantively NOTHING is known about the new variant,” Roberto Burioni, a leading Italian virologist, wrote on Twitter, adding that people should not panic.
Omicron variant upends global pandemic response. Governments around the world began to reintroduce precautionary measures on Saturday that had been lifted earlier in the pandemic as researchers raced to determine if a new coronavirus variant posed a significant threat and several cases were spotted in Europe days after it was first detected in southern Africa.Omicron, a new variant first detected in Botswana, sent Europe into high alert on Saturday after cases were detected in the United Kingdom, Germany and Italy. Omicron cases were already detected in Belgium on Friday. The Czech Republic, Austria, Israel and the Netherlands were all investigating suspected cases of the variant.There is still relatively little known about Omicron. It has mutations that scientists fear could make it more infectious and less susceptible to vaccines — though neither of these effects is yet to be established. Most confirmed cases of the variant are contained to southern African countries, but there are worries the virus could have spread more widely before scientists there discovered it.“There’s been a window of probably about two weeks conservatively that this virus has been spreading,” Andrew Pekosz, an epidemiologist from Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health said in an interview on Saturday. It is likely the variant is already in New York, he said.“There certainly is a chance that it has already spread globally, but we just don’t know yet,” Mr. Pekosz added.European leaders, already struggling with a surge in Covid-19 cases that has made it once again the epicenter of the pandemic, tried to strike a balance between increasing caution and avoiding panic. But the virus would not cooperate. Sixty-one passengers of more than 500 on two flights from southern African countries into the Netherlands on Saturday tested positive for the coronavirus and are quarantining in Amsterdam. The Omicron variant is likely to be found in some of those 61 passengers who tested positive, the Dutch authorities said. The European Union will restrict travel to and from seven countries in southern Africa: Botswana, Eswatini, Lesotho, Mozambique, Namibia, South Africa and Zimbabwe. South Korea announced on Sunday that it would impose a travel ban on those countries and Malawi. Israel said Saturday it would close its borders to foreign nationals for two weeks.
German business morale darkens on supply bottlenecks, COVID (Reuters) - German business morale deteriorated for the fifth month running in November as supply bottlenecks in manufacturing and a spike in coronavirus infections clouded the growth outlook for Europe's largest economy, a survey showed on Wednesday. The Ifo institute said its business climate index fell to 96.5 from 97.7 in October. A Reuters poll of analysts had pointed to a November reading of 96.6. "Supply bottlenecks and the fourth wave of the coronavirus are challenging German companies," Ifo President Clemens Fuest said. Company executives were less satisfied with their current business situation while their expectations for the next six months also became more pessimistic, the survey showed. The Ifo survey contrasted with a purchasing manager survey which had suggested on Tuesday that growth in Germany's private sector picked up slightly in November despite persistent supply bottlenecks and record high inflation. The German central bank warned on Monday that the economy could stagnate in the final quarter of this year as a lack of goods and labour as well as new restrictions to fight the pandemic might put an end to its fragile recovery.
Czechs order bars and restaurants shut early, president taken to hospital with COVID (Reuters) - The Czech government on Thursday ordered bars and clubs to close at 10 p.m. and banned Christmas markets in an attempt to stem one of the world's highest coronavirus infection rates. The new restrictions also include a maximum attendance of 1,000 people at culture and sports events, stopping short of the sweeping lockdowns in neighbouring Austria and Slovakia, where infection rates are even higher. Just hours after the new restrictions were announced, the presidential office said President Milos Zeman was taken to hospital after testing positive for the coronavirus, although local media reported he showed no symptoms. This was less than half a day after the 77-year-old leader left the hospital following a 46-day treatment for an unrelated chronic condition. The Czechs registered more than 25,000 new cases, a record, on Tuesday, and an average of 1,516 daily COVID-19 cases per million population over the past week, the third highest in the world behind Slovakia and Austria, according to Our World in Data. Health Minister Adam Vojtech said daily infections and hospital admissions were likely to rise further, but the government hoped the new measures would prevent the need for tougher restrictions. The limits on pubs and events come on top of earlier restrictions that already bar people who have not been vaccinated or recovered from COVID-19 from places including pubs, restaurants, cinemas, hairdressers and gyms.
UK orders isolation for new arrivals to fight Omicron variant - British Prime Minister Boris Johnson on Saturday announced a raft of “temporary and precautionary” new rules to combat the spread of the “monstrous” new Omicron variant of the coronavirus. Speaking in a somber and abruptly called press conference, Johnson and his top medical aidesordered all new UK arrivals to self-isolate until they receive a negative PCR test on British soil. The rule comes on top of a ban on all flights from a growing list of countries in southern Africa. On Friday, the UK called a halt on travel from South Africa, Botswana, Lesotho, Eswatini, Zimbabwe and Namibia. Four more nations will be added to the red list this weekend, Health Secretary Sajid Javid said Saturday: Malawi, Mozambique, Zambia and Angola.For those already in Britain, all close contacts of people who test positive for the Omicron variant must self-isolate for 10 days, Johnson said — whether or not they have received COVID jabs and boosters — and face masks will be made mandatory again on public transportation and in stores, but not in restaurants.“We don’t know how effective our vaccines will be” against the fast-spreading new variant that emerged in recent days in southern Africa, Johnson said.“But we have good reasons to believe they will provide at least some measure of protection,” he said
Go Private for the Treatment You Need, NHS Tells Patients -One in five patients has been told by a doctor or another NHS professional that they would have to go private to get the treatment or test they need. That’s just one of the shocking results from a survey of nearly 7,000 openDemocracy readers – backed up by separate polling commissioned by openDemocracy.NHS staff echoed the patients’ claims. Nine out of ten (87%) members of patient-facing staff said they had been simply unable to give a patient treatment or a procedure they would benefit from.The survey, one of the largest of its kind of NHS patients and staff, provides a detailed – and worrying – breakdown of what happens to these patients.The government has repeatedly reassured the public that the NHS will remain “free at the point of use”. But such language will bring little comfort to the many who told openDemocracy that the NHS had been scaling back what it offers even before the pandemic.Both patients and NHS staff also reported an increasing reliance on the private sector to fill in the gaps – whether funded by the taxpayer or the patient themselves – despite successive prime ministerial promises that the NHS is “not for sale”.Forty per cent of patients who replied to our survey were told that the NHS simply can’t offer them the treatment they need. Half of these patients – one in five of all patients – said an NHS worker then told them they would instead have to pay privately for the treatment they needed:‘There’s an increasing sense that if you can’t pay for private healthcare you are treated worse than before.’‘My GP was always pushing me for private care and never took steps to refer me to the specialist.’ NHS staff themselves told us a similar story.One GP said: “I now routinely ask people if they have private insurance before referring them as I know the system is so overwhelmed.”Suggesting patients pay “alleviates patient and carer/family anxiety regarding delays for diagnostic tests,” added a nurse.Many respondents noticed NHS staff were “apologetic” and “saddened” when they had to suggest people went private. NHS staff “were always honest and showed they didn’t like the situation any more than I did”, said one patient. Their doctor’s “hands were tied and they would have helped if they could”, added another. Their GP told them it was “due to funding issues”, said yet another.Another told us: “The doctor apologised for not being able to offer me the operation. My condition is not considered bad enough. I am prescribed Tramadol for pain. I have a poor quality of life, so am not sure how bad I would have to be before an operation was offered. I am a widow, which means my quality of life is even poorer, as I can go days without a visitor, and rely on the internet for shopping and have to pay a gardener and cleaner. My savings are rapidly disappearing.”
27 migrants confirmed dead as dinghy capsizes in English Channel - At least 27 people died on Wednesday after an inflatable dinghy capsized in rough seas in the English Channel near to the French port city of Calais. The number killed was originally reported as 31 but was revised down by the French government on Thursday morning. The tragedy took place Wednesday afternoon, with French fishermen reporting bodies floating motionless in the sea. Sky News reported, “Fisherman Nicolas Margolle said he had seen two small dinghies—one with people onboard and another empty. He said another fisherman had called rescuers after seeing the empty dinghy and 15 people motionless in the water.” French Interior Minister Gerald Darmanin said that 34 people had been on board the boat. “Amongst the 31 dead, as far as we know five were women and one was a little girl.” Two people were rescued and one was still missing. Of the two survivors Darmanin said, “There are two survivors... but their life is in danger—they are suffering from severe hypothermia.” He described the inflatable the migrants were in as “very frail... like a pool you blow up in your garden”.
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