The Fed is still acting too slowly - During the Federal Reserve’s December meeting, Chairman Jerome Powell announced plans to reduce the Fed’s purchases of government bonds more quickly in response to rising inflation. He also indicated that the Fed is planning to raise interest rates three times in 2022, instead of the previously announced two. The plan is to finish winding down its bond purchases in March and begin increasing interest rates after that. But in light of the high rate of inflation we are experiencing, the Fed is still acting too slowly.If the Fed were going to act aggressively, rather than buying fewer government bonds each month, it would stop buying them altogether. It would also increase the interest rate it pays on bank reserves without hesitation.Buying government bonds even for a few more months means further increasing the money supply, which will further stoke price inflation. And the artificially low interest rates it’s been encouraging give households and businesses continued incentives to borrow to bid up prices of houses, cars and other durable investments. Meanwhile, banks pay almost no interest on savings because the interest rate the Fed pays on bank reserves is only slightly above zero. In other words, we should not expect to see inflation fall much from its November level of 5.5 percent. Although the Fed is forecasting only 2.6 percent in 2022, there is good reason to expect a much higher rate. Americans are still spending the stimulus payments they received during the last two years. Even if the policy changes bring inflation down in the second half of 2022, the rate for the calendar year is likely to be well above the Fed’s 2 percent average target.If our bout of inflation was caused entirely by transitory supply chain problems, it might fall back to pre-pandemic levels. But we have no reason to expect that to happen within the next month or two. The enormous monetary expansion since March 2020, which paid for the trillions of dollars in government stimulus (which has not all been spent), continues to suggest that increased demand for goods is a serious problem regardless of what happens to supply. Several considerations may be behind the Fed’s decision to continue monetary expansion for at least a few more months. Chairman Powell has repeatedly emphasized a desire to lower unemployment further below itscurrent 4.2 percent. But the large number of unfilled jobs suggests that more spending would do little to reduce unemployment. Census Bureau data show that millions have not returned to work because they are caring for their children, “suffering from Covid symptoms, caring for someone who is sick, or concerned about getting or spreading the virus.”Here’s the problem with delaying monetary tightening: The longer inflation stays high, the more people will expect it to continue in the future. That creates more problems. If workers expect this year’s cost-of-living increase to continue in the future, they’ll demand coinciding wage increases going forward — say, 5 percent. But if workers get such large wage increases, that will feed into future inflation. When inflation is higher, it tends to be more unstable. As was the case in the 1970s and early 1980s, high and unstable inflation may, for example, cause higher average unemployment.
Fed Drains $1.9 Trillion in Liquidity from Market via Overnight Reverse Repos - Wolf Richter - The New York Fed disclosed today that its overnight reverse repos (RRPs) spiked by $208 billion from yesterday, to a record $1.904 trillion. With these RRPs, the Fed took in $1.9 trillion in cash from 103 counterparties, and in exchange handed out Treasury securities, temporarily draining $1.9 trillion in liquidity from the market and financial system. The RRPs mature on Monday, January 3, when the Fed gets its securities back and counterparties get their cash back. Then they’ll engage in another round of RRPs. Today’s RRPs replaced $1.70 trillion in RRPs from yesterday that matured and were unwound this morning. A few weeks ago, I posted in the illustrious Wolf Street comments that RRPs would “spike at the end of December, maybe to somewhere near $2 trillion as banks engage in quarterly balance sheet window dressing.” A spike today was expected for that reason, same as with the prior end-of-quarter spikes labeled in the chart. RRPs are the opposite of repos and QE:With repos and QE, the Fed hands out cash and takes in securities in order to repress interest rates. With RRPs, the Fed takes in cash and hands out Treasury securities in order to put a floor under short-term interest rates. The counterparties are financial institutions that are creaking under excess liquidity that the Fed has created with its monstrous QE, and this cash was showing up in money market funds. The funds then needed to invest this flood of cash in short-term securities, such as Treasury bills. This flood of buying caused short-term Treasury yields to turn negative. That’s when the Fed offered to take this cash via RRPs. When it offered to pay interest at an annual rate of 0.05%, cash came gushing into the Fed’s direction, and Treasury yields bounced back above 0%. The approved RRP counterparties fall into three groups: Money market funds, banks, and Government Sponsored Enterprises (Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, Farmer Mac, etc.). Day-to-day, money market funds have been the biggest users of the reverse repo facility. The Fed raised the limit per counterparty to $160 billion to accommodate the needs of the biggest money market funds. A big financial institution, such as Fidelity, Vanguard, or Blackrock, manages numerous money market funds. But each individual money market fund is a counterparty of the New York Fed. Of Fidelity’s money market funds, 11 are approved counterparties with the New York Fed. All combined have been the largest user of the RRP facility. The Fed doesn’t disclose on a daily basis the participants, but end-of-month data is released with a lag. At the end of November, all of Fidelity’s money market funds combined had $288 billion in RRPs with the Fed, or 19% of total RRPs at the time (red line in the chart below). Vanguard’s money market funds combined, the second largest user of this facility at the end of November, had a balance of $165 billion, or 11% of total RRPs. Blackrock’s money market funds had a combined balance of $155 billion, or 10% of total RRPs. JP Morgan’s five approved money market funds combined were in fourth position with $134 billion. Here are the top nine counterparties as of November 30:
The key to Fed rate hikes? It may be the 2022 paychecks of Americans - More than half of U.S. states are raising minimum wages next year, but employers are moving even faster on pay increases.Salary budget increases set by employers for 2022 are higher than they have been in at least a decade, with 99% of employers planning raises and many planning increases of 5% to 6% in 2022, according to compensation consulting firm surveys. Deloitte's fourth quarter CFO Signals survey funds 97% of CFOs saying that labor costs will increase substantially in 2022.Top companies are aggressively fighting for talent and fighting their own employees' demands for higher pay to fight inflation. Apple is reportedly even paying rare $180,000 stock bonuses to keep engineers for going to tech rivals.But while the Federal Reserve says wage inflation is a factor to monitor in 2022, it is not a primary inflation driver yet.Some economists aren't as sure as the central bank that rising pay isn't already contributing to what is known as a wage-price spiral, a labor market dynamic in which wage inflation leads to higher prices, and higher prices lead to calls for even higher pay."It is here," said Lynn Reaser, chief economist and professor of economics at Point Loma Nazarene University. "You've seen it in the restaurant industry, not only the price increases in the cost of serving meals from the ingredient side, but from the attempt to desperately recruit new workers, and restaurants passing it along to customers in the form of higher prices."Reaser says it is not only the restaurant industry, hard-hit by the pandemic, though. Manufacturers are testing the waters for how much they can raise prices, and producers supplying grocery stores are citing labor costs as one of the driving them to consider higher prices.Producer prices rose at the fastest rate on record in November."A wage-price spiral has started," wrote Sung Won Sohn, professor of finance and economics at Loyola Marymount University and head of SS Economics.In a period when businesses have no problem hiking prices, "the spiral, once begins, it is hard to stop," he wrote, citing data from the Atlanta Fed on how higher labor costs are being passed along to consumers with little resistance.Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell is speaking more about the wage inflation issue, and the Fed is saying that its actions are now tied more closely to it."If you look at the state of the economy ... the strength of demand, the strength of just overall demand, the strength of demand for labor, look at inflation, look at wages ... moving forward the end of our taper by a few months is really an appropriate thing to do," Powell said after the most recent FOMC meeting in mid-December, but he stopped short of saying there is a wage-price spiral. "Wages have also risen briskly, but thus far, wage growth has not been a major contributor to the elevated levels of inflation" he said. "We are attentive to the risks that persistent real wage growth in excess of productivity could put upward pressure on inflation," he said.
The Fed’s Doomsday Prophet Has a Dire Warning About Where We’re Headed - Thomas Hoenig doesn’t look like a rebel. He is a conservative man, soft-spoken, now happily retired at the age of 75. He acts like someone who has spent the vast majority of his career, as he has, working at one of the stuffiest and powerful institutions in America: the Federal Reserve Bank. Hoenig has all the fiery disposition that one might expect from a central banker, which is to say none at all. This makes it all the more surprising that Tom Hoenig is, in fact, one of America’s least-understood dissidents. In 2010, Hoenig was president of the Federal Reserve regional bank in Kansas City. As part of his job, Hoenig had a seat on the Fed’s most powerful policy committee, and that’s where he lodged one of the longest-running string of “no” votes in the bank’s history. Hoenig’s dissents are striking because the Fed’s top policy committee — called the Federal Open Market Committee, or FOMC — doesn’t just prize consensus; it nearly demands it. Hoenig’s string of dissents shattered that appearance of unanimity at a critically important time, when the Fed was expanding its interventions in the American economy to an unprecedented degree. Between 2008 and 2014, the Federal Reserve printed more than $3.5 trillion in new bills. Three centuries’ worth of growth in the money supply was crammed into a few short years. The money poured through the veins of the financial system and stoked demand for assets like stocks, corporate debt and commercial real estate bonds, driving up prices across markets. Hoenig was the one Fed leader who voted consistently against this course of action, starting in 2010. In doing so, he pitted himself against the Fed’s powerful chair at the time, Ben Bernanke, who was widely regarded as a hero for the ambitious rescue plans he designed and oversaw. Hoenig lost his fight. Throughout 2010, the FOMC votes were routinely 11 against one, with Hoenig being the one. He retired from the Fed in late 2011, and after that, a reputation hardened around Hoenig as the man who got it wrong. He is remembered as something like a cranky Old Testament prophet who warned incessantly, and incorrectly, about one thing: the threat of coming inflation. But this version of history isn’t true. While Hoenig was concerned about inflation, that isn’t what solely what drove him to lodge his string of dissents. The historical record shows that Hoenig was worried primarily that the Fed was taking a risky path that would deepen income inequality, stoke dangerous asset bubbles and enrich the biggest banks over everyone else. He also warned that it would suck the Fed into a money-printing quagmire that the central bank would not be able to escape without destabilizing the entire financial system. On all of these points, Hoenig was correct. And on all of these points, he was ignored. We are now living in a world that Hoenig warned about.
US Dollar’s Status as Dominant “Global Reserve Currency” at 25-Year Low. And USD Exchange Rates? - The global share of US-dollar-denominated exchange reserves declined to 59.15% in the third quarter, from 59.23% in the second quarter, hobbling along a 26-year low for the past four quarters, according to the IMF’s COFER data released today. Dollar-denominated foreign exchange reserves are Treasury securities, US corporate bonds, US mortgage-backed securities, and other USD-denominated assets that are held by foreign central banks. In 2001 – the moment just before the euro officially arrived as bank notes and coins – the dollar’s share was 71.5%. Since then, it has dropped by 12.3 percentage points. In 1977, when inflation was raging in the US, the dollar’s share was 85%. And when it looked like the Fed wasn’t doing anything about inflation that was threatening to spiral out of control, foreign central banks began dumping USD-denominated assets, and the dollar’s share collapsed. The plunge of the dollar’s share bottomed out in 1991, after the inflation crackdown in the early 1980s caused inflation to abate. As confidence grew that the Fed would keep inflation more or less under control, the dollar’s share then surged by 25 percentage points until 2000 when the euro arrived. Since then, over those 20 years, other central banks have been gradually diversifying away from US dollar holdings (year-end data, except for 2021 = Q3): Not included in global foreign exchange reserves are the assets held by a central bank in its own currency, such as the Fed’s holdings of dollar-denominated assets, the ECB’s holdings of euro-denominated assets, or the Bank of Japan’s holdings of yen-denominated assets. . The exchange rates between the US dollar and other currencies impact the dollar-value of non-dollar reserves. So for example, the value of China’s holdings of euro-denominated bonds is expressed in USD to make it compatible with all the other holdings. All holdings that are denominated in non-dollar currencies are expressed in USD, and those USD-entries for non-USD assets move also with the exchange rates. But the exchange rates of the major currency pairs have been remarkably stable over the past two-decades-plus, despite swings in between, as seen by the Dollar Index (DXY), that is now back where it had been in 1999. So, exchange rates had little or no impact on the substantial decline of the dollar’s share of foreign exchange reserves. That decline was mostly due to central banks diversifying away from dollar-denominated holdings in favor of non-dollar holdings – getting perhaps a little nervous about the twin deficits int he US – but they’re doing so very slowly to avoid toppling this whole house of cards.
Benchmark yields post largest increase since 2013 (Reuters) - Benchmark 10-year Treasuries ended the year with the largest yield increase since 2013 as investors prepare for the likelihood that the Federal Reserve will raise rates as soon as May. The U.S. central bank is under pressure to hike rates to cut off surging inflation that is proving to be more stubborn than previously expected. Fed funds futures traders are fully pricing in a rate hike by May and almost three hikes by the end of 2022. 0#FF: Benchmark 10-year yields US10YT=RR are up 60 basis points on the year, the largest increase since 2013, when the yields jumped 127 basis points. That increase came after then-Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke signaled the start of the unwind of the Fed’s bond purchase program and sparked the now infamous "taper tantrum." Two-year note yields US2YT=RR , which are highly sensitive to interest rate moves, ended up 61 basis points on the year, the largest increase since 2017. The yield curve between two-year and 10-year notes US2US10=TWEB was at 77 basis points. The curve is only slightly flatter than where it ended last year, at 79 basis points. The largest mover this year was five-year notes US5YT=RR , which have jumped 90 basis points, the most since 2013. The U.S. central bank will release minutes from its Dec. 14-15 meeting next week, which will be evaluated for any new signs that the Fed is becoming more uncomfortable with rising price pressures. The Fed said after the December meeting that it would end its pandemic-era bond purchases in March and pave the way for three quarter-percentage-point interest rate hikes by the end of 2022. Any insight into Fed thinking around the economic risks of the Omicron coronavirus variant will likely be outdated, however, after its rapid spread over the past few weeks. Demand for the Fed's reverse repurchase facility hit a record $1.90 trillion on Friday as short-term lenders sought profitable places to park cash overnight. Traders and lenders are also expected to face deteriorating liquidity on contracts based on the London interbank offered rate (Libor) after the year-end deadline to stop basing new trades and loans on the benchmark. Three-month Libor was at 21 basis points on Friday and is down from an almost one-year high of 22 basis points on Wednesday.
Seven High Frequency Indicators for the Economy -- These indicators are mostly for travel and entertainment. The TSA is providing daily travel numbers. This data is as of December 25th.This data shows the 7-day average of daily total traveler throughput from the TSA for 2019 (Light Blue), 2020 (Blue) and 2021 (Red). The 7-day average is down 17.1% from the same day in 2019 (82.9% of 2019). (Dashed line) Air travel had been off about 20% relative to 2019 for the last four months (with some ups and downs) - but picked up over the Thanksgiving and Christmas holidays. The second graph shows the 7-day average of the year-over-year change in diners as tabulated by OpenTable for the US and several selected cities. This data is updated through December 25, 2021. This data is "a sample of restaurants on the OpenTable network across all channels: online reservations, phone reservations, and walk-ins. Note that this data is for "only the restaurants that have chosen to reopen in a given market". Since some restaurants have not reopened, the actual year-over-year decline is worse than shown. Dining was mostly moving sideways, but there has been a significant decline recently, probably due to the winter wave of COVID. The 7-day average for the US is down 19% compared to 2019. This data shows domestic box office for each week and the median for the years 2016 through 2019 (dashed light blue). The data is from BoxOfficeMojo through December 23rd. Movie ticket sales were at $418 million last week, down about 5% from the median for the week. The numbers this week included the newest Spider Man. This graph shows the seasonal pattern for the hotel occupancy rate using the four-week average. The red line is for 2021, black is 2020, blue is the median, dashed purple is 2019, and dashed light blue is for 2009 (the worst year on record for hotels prior to 2020). This data is through December 18th. The occupancy rate was up 8.0% compared to the same week in 2019. Although down compared to 2019, the 4-week average of the occupancy rate is now above the median rate for the previous 20 years (Blue). This graph, based on weekly data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), shows gasoline supplied compared to the same week of 2019. As of December 17th, gasoline supplied was down 3.4% compared to the same week in 2019. There have been 12 weeks this year that gasoline supplied was up compared to the same week in 2019 - so consumption is running close to 2019 levels now. This graph is from Apple mobility. From Apple: "This data is generated by counting the number of requests made to Apple Maps for directions in select countries/regions, sub-regions, and cities." This data is through December 25th for the United States and several selected cities. According to the Apple data directions requests, public transit in the 7-day average for the US is at 83% of the January 2020 level. New York City is doing OK by this metric, but New York subway usage is down significantly (next graph). This graph shows how much MTA traffic has recovered in each borough (Graph starts at first week in January 2020 and 100 = 2019 average). Manhattan is at about 33% of normal (impacted by holidays too).This data is through Friday, December 24th.
Democrats aim to tackle Build Back Better plan, Fed nominations and China bill as 2022 midterms loom - Congressional Democrats will return next year and try to check a few long-floundering items off their to-do list before the 2022 midterms consume Washington. The next few months in the Capitol could shape the economic health of U.S. households for years to come. The scope of Democrats' accomplishments could also play a role in whether they hold control of one or both chambers of Congress for the second half of President Joe Biden's first term. Biden's Build Back Better Act weighs the most heavily on Democratic minds. The $1.75 trillion investment in social and climate programs hit a wall this month when Sen. Joe Manchin, D-W.Va., said he would oppose it. "It would be really, really sad as someone who worked really hard on this, if we were not successful," Senate Budget Committee Chairman Bernie Sanders, I-Vt., told MSNBC after Manchin announced his stance this month. "But it would be even sadder if the American people said, 'these people stand for nothing. Not only can't they get anything done, they don't believe in anything.'" Though Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer has vowed to bring the bill up for a vote next month, it is all but doomed. Even so, Democrats hope to revive it in some form that could win support from every member of their Senate caucus. The congressional tasks that hold wide-ranging economic implications do not end with Build Back Better. The Senate will hold votes on whether to confirm Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell and Governor Lael Brainard – Biden's choice for vice chair – to lead the central bank as it tries to tackle an economic recovery and the highest inflation in decades. Congress will have to pass a government funding bill by mid-February to prevent a government shutdown that could lead to furloughs of federal workers. In addition, the Senate and House will work to resolve disagreements on a bill that would pile a quarter of a trillion dollars into research and development to catch up with Chinese investments in technology. Democrats' legislative agenda also includes a bill that some in the party believe is the biggest priority of all: The party will try to pass voting rights legislation to counter restrictive bills introduced by state legislatures around the country. Elections proposals stalled repeatedly last year as all Republicans opposed them and at least two Democrats resisted efforts to bypass the filibuster.
Manchin Under Fire for Blowing Potential $60 Billion Hole in US Economy During Pandemic -- Beyond its near-immediate—and potentially devastating—impact on millions of families with children, Democratic Sen. Joe Manchin's obstruction of his party's Build Back Better package could have far-reaching consequences for the overall U.S. economy as the coronavirus pandemic continues to rage at home and abroad. According to a Business Insider calculation derived from Goldman Sachs' new adjusted growth projections, the death of Democrats' $1.75 trillion reconciliation measure could deprive the U.S. economy of $60 billion in gross domestic product (GDP) over the next three quarters, hampering the nation's fragile recovery."Economists are already forecasting what a BBB-free economy will look like, and early projections are gloomy," the outlet noted. "Goldman Sachs economists led by Jan Hatzius now expect U.S. GDP to grow 2% in the first quarter, 3% in the second quarter, and 2.75% in the third quarter, according to estimates published Monday. Those projections are down from 3%, 3.5%, and 3%, respectively."The financial services firm Moody's Analytics, for its part, projected earlier this year that passage of both the reconciliation bill and the bipartisan infrastructure package—which President Joe Biden signed into law last month—would boost real GDP growth to 4.8% next year.Mark Zandi, the chief economist at Moody's, warned in a series of tweets Monday that "if BBB doesn’t become law, real GDP growth in 2022 will be lower by 0.5% and reaching full-employment next year will prove elusive.""Fallout will be quick as families with children will lose a tax break," he continued. "Without BBB, the economic recovery will be vulnerable to stalling out if we suffer another serious wave of the pandemic, an increasingly likely scenario with Omicron spreading rapidly. Detractors of BBB worry about inflation, but without it, the worry is more likely to be growth." Democrats' flagship social spending and climate legislation proposed investing billions of dollars in safety-net programs—including an expanded child tax credit, Medicaid, and pre-K—and renewable energy initiatives over the next decade in an effort to cut poverty, bolster healthcare coverage, and combat the planetary emergency.According to an analysis conducted by the Economic Policy Institute in October, the slate of policy proposals in the Build Back Better Act combined with the bipartisan infrastructure package would have supported four million jobs annually. But over several months of negotiations, Manchin (D-W.Va.) and other right-wing Democrats slowly chipped away at the legislation, removing key climate andhealthcare provisions and ultimately cutting the bill's proposed spending level in half. On Sunday, Manchin dealt what many saw as the death blow, telling Fox News that he would vote no on the Build Back Better Act should it reach the floor in its current form—likely spelling the end of programs like theexpanded child tax credit, which reduced poverty and bolstered consumer spending by putting money directly in families' pockets. Behind the scenes, Manchin reportedly told colleagues that "he thought parents would waste monthly child tax credit (CTC) payments on drugs instead of providing for their children," ignoring research showing that families have largely spent the money on groceries and other necessities. In a statement released to the public on Sunday, the West Virginia Democrat offered several other objections to the bill that economists and other analysts slammed as nonsensical. "He says he's worried about inflation and the national debt, but Build Back Better will be paid for with tax increases on big corporations and the wealthy—so it won't have any bearing on inflation or the debt," former Labor Secretary Robert Reich wrote in a blog post following Manchin's statement.
Progressive Rep. Pramila Jayapal doubles down on her bid to have Biden use executive action to pass his $1.75 trillion Build Back Better plan and tears into Manchin's 'stunning rebuke of his own party's president - Pramila Jayapal doubled down on her demands for President Joe Biden to use executive action to force through his $1.75 trillion Build Back Better plan.'The Progressive Caucus will continue to work toward legislation for Build Back Better, focused on keeping it as close to the agreed-upon framework as possible,' Jayapal wrote in her Washington Post op/ed on Sunday, adding that the caucus will release a plan soon to initiate further action on proposals included in BBB.She added: 'At the same time, we are calling on the president to use executive action to immediately improve people's lives. Taking executive action will also make clear to those who hinder Build Back Better that the White House and Democrats will deliver for Americans.'Jayapal is chairwoman of the Congressional Progressive Caucus and she is hoping Biden will use executive action to bypass Congress in passing his massive social spending and welfare plan.Centrist Democratic Senator Joe Manchin effectively killed the proposal earlier this month when he said he will vote 'no' on the behemoth plan despite months of negotiations with Biden, including at the president's home in Wilmington, Delaware.Jayapal called Manchin's December 20 comments 'a stunning rebuke of his own party's president' and claimed he 'went back on his commitment' to continue negotiations. Manchin's support for the proposal is crucial in a 50-50 split Senate where the president needs all members of his party on board to pass his ambitious agenda. Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer from New York has the day after Manchin voiced opposition that the chamber would still move on a floor vote on a package in early 2022. 'The CPC will soon release a plan for these actions, including lowering costs, protecting the health of every family, and showing the world that the United States is serious about our leadership on climate action,' Jayapal wrote in her op/ed. Manchin expressed several concerns over the last few months about proposals in Biden's signature domestic policy bill, including multiple climate proposals and extending monthly child tax credit payments. The bill as it stands includes hundreds of billions of dollars in funding for measures to fight climate change and meet the administration's goals addressing environmental issues.
Biden, Manchin discussed social spending bill after U.S. senator's rejection –adviser (Reuters) - U.S. President Joe Biden and Senator Joe Manchin spoke about the "Build Back Better" bill a day after the conservative Democratic senator publicly rejected the president's social spending plans, a White House adviser said on Friday. "He (Biden) has some confidence about that (bill), including discussions he has had with Senator Manchin," Jared Bernstein, a member of the White House council of economic advisers, said in an interview with CNN on Friday. "The president and Senator Manchin - the day after that announcement where the senator said he couldn't vote for the bill as it was - they were talking again." Reuters previously reported that Biden and Manchin made no significant progress in the talks after Manchin's rejection of the plan earlier in December but aides felt reassured that lines of communication were still open and cordial. Biden told reporters this week that the pair have not spoken since then. Manchin's rejection imperils the legislation because his support is crucial in the Senate where the Democrats have the slimmest margin of control and Republicans are united in their opposition to the bill. Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer has said the chamber would vote on a package in early 2022. Manchin's move prompted investment bank Goldman Sachs GS.N to lower its forecasts for U.S. economic growth. Manchin's rejection of the bill threatened to scuttle hundreds of billions of dollars in funding for measures to fight climate change and meet the Biden administration's climate goals. Manchin has expressed concerns about a number of proposals in Biden's signature domestic policy bill, including multiple climate proposals and extending monthly child tax credit payments. Biden told reporters after Manchin's rejection that he and the senator were "going to get something done" on the legislation. U.S. Representative Pramila Jayapal, a leading liberal House Democrat, has asked Biden to continue focusing on the social spending legislation and urged him to use executive action despite Manchin's public rejection of the plan.
Prescription drug price reform on the line in social spending bill -— Among the most potentially transformational changes in the Democrats’ massive social and climate bill pending in the Senate are a set of long-sought changes intended to tamp down the fast-rising cost of prescription drugs. The $2 trillion spending package would ensure Americans don’t pay more than $35 when they pick up a new vial of insulin from their pharmacy and would penalize drugmakers if they hike medicine prices faster than the inflation rate. It also would, for the first time, allow Medicare to negotiate the prices of some of the most expensive drugs it provides to seniors. But it’s not clear if several of the provisions aimed at finally taking substantive action on soaring drug prices will remain in the final version of the bill, known as “Build Back Better.” That decision will be up to the Senate parliamentarian, who has been meeting privately with senators from both parties to issue guidance on whether certain pieces of the massive bill comply with the chamber’s rules. The path forward is tricky logistically because Democrats are using the reconciliation process to advance the measure with just 50 votes instead of the typical 60 needed. That means they can push through legislation without winning support from any Republicans. Chances for passage through reconciliation dimmed recently when Sen. Joe Manchin III, a West Virginia Democrat, said he plans to vote against the Biden administration’s latest spending plan. The closed-door discussions have not been publicly relayed by lawmakers in the room. But reports from Politico and other news outlets have suggested that GOP opponents are challenging whether aspects that apply to private insurance plans comply with a Senate rule requiring provisions in a reconciliation bill to directly affect federal spending or revenue. Democrats have said they are cautiously optimistic the provisions will survive and have defended them as long overdue help for those struggling to afford health care. Should the drug-pricing provisions survive, experts say the proposed set of policy changes would make a start toward price reductions, though the effort won’t entirely solve the drug-pricing crisis
If Democrats want to save Build Back Better, it must be paid for in full – Bill Bixby - The Build Back Better Act (BBBA) is now on the back burner. Can it be salvaged? The answer may come down to whether Democrats want to enact something that is transformational, as they say they want, or merely temporary, which is what they produced in the House.One thing is clear: Sen. Joe Manchin’s (D-W.Va.) blunt declaration that he would not support the BBBA as written ended any chance that the bill could pass the Senate in the same form as it passed the House. And, it’s not just a matter of Manchin’s objections. The Senate Parliamentarian has determined that the immigration provisions in the House-passed bill do not qualify for reconciliation protection. There is also an unresolved dispute in the Senate over raising the cap on the deductibility of state and local taxes (SALT). Manchin’s objections, however, will be the most difficult to resolve since they broadly apply to the BBBA’s overall cost, its many expiring provisions that obscure its effect on future deficits, and its possible effect on inflation. With no prospect of Republican support for the bill, Manchin's vote will be needed to enable Vice President Harris to break a 50-50 tie, and that means that major changes must be made for the BBBA to have any future.Despite the obstacles, President Biden and congressional Democratic leaders have said they will not walk away from negotiations. They have too much at stake. Manchin laid down one overall marker that should serve as the guiding principle for rebuilding the BBBA: ensure that its provisions are fully and transparently funded over the long-term. That is not the case with the version that passed in the House. In an effort to enact as many new or expanded programs as possible while keeping the official 10-year cost to about $2 trillion without increasing 10-year budget deficits, House Democrats chose to simply end (sunset) several key provisions after a few years while offsetting them with permanent revenue increases. Democrats are not alone in using this budgetary sleight of hand. Republicans used the same timing gimmick to pass tax cuts in 2017 (and without any pretense of offsetting those costs). The problem Democrats created for themselves, however, is that they continued to tout the BBBA as “transformational,” and “fully paid for” even as they gave up on trying to make several policies permanent. It’s hard to argue that temporary policies are transformational. You can’t build a skyscraper by funding only the first few floors. This dilemma was laid bare when the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office (CBO) published ananalysis, requested by Republican leaders of the House and Senate Budget Committees, showing that if certain provisions of the House-passed BBBA were made permanent, rather than allowed to sunset on schedule, the total cost of the bill would increase future budget deficits by $2.8 trillion more than the official score of the bill (i.e., assuming the sunsets take effect). Most of the added cost was attributable to the extension of the expanded Child Tax Credit, which would balloon from $185 billion for a one-year extension to nearly $1.6 trillion over the 10-year budget window with the sunset removed. Other temporary proposals in the BBBA include funding for universal pre-k, child care subsidies, and expanded premium tax credits to help low-income Medicaid-ineligible households purchase private health insurance. Another vital question left unanswered is what happens to these programs — and the people who have come to rely on them — if Democrats no longer have unified control of government when the expiration dates arrive? One sure bet: The list of mutually agreeable offsets will get much, much shorter if Republicans claim control of the House, Senate, or White House. In this context, CBO’s assessment sets up a tough choice: higher deficits, larger offsets, or a bunch of expired programs. This choice must be made clear, now, before the BBBA becomes law. Rather than denying the obvious, Democrats would be better served by using the CBO report as a roadmap for retooling BBBA. Focus on doing a few high-priority things well, pay for those and jettison the rest.
Democrats should be courting Romney, not Manchin --When President Joe Biden announced the Build Back Better framework in October, he called it "the most transformative investment in children and caregiving in generations" and "the largest effort to combat climate change in American history." A month later, the House passed the Build Back Better Act, following through on Biden's priorities by devoting $775 billion to family benefits and $560 billion to climate. But last week, Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) said he "cannot vote to move forward," denying the reconciliation bill the 50th Senate vote it needs to pass. Manchin's statement blames the bill's size, describing it as "sweeping" and "mammoth," and cites the Congressional Budget Office's estimate that Build Back Better would add $3 trillion to the deficit over a decade if programs scheduled to expire were instead made permanent. More fundamentally, though, the rejection represents a difference in values between the West Virginia senator and other congressional Democrats. On the issues of child poverty and climate change, Democrats have a closer ally across the aisle.When it comes to child poverty, experts agree that the simplest solution works. Giving families money improves children's educational outcomes,health and even longevity. Democrats have long sought to apply this direct remedy, and in 2017, Sens. Michael Bennet (D-Colo.) and Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio) introduced the American Family Act, a Child Tax Credit expansion that promised to cut child poverty nearly in half and overall poverty by a fifth. The American Rescue Plan ultimately adopted a similar policy, keeping millions of children out of poverty each month this year. Extending the program, especially the element that helps our poorest children, has been central to Build Back Better since the start. But Manchin has suggested that parents spend the benefits on vices(despite evidence to the contrary) and when he presented a counterofferto the White House last week, the Child Tax Credit was absent. Experts also agree that keeping our environment habitable requires quickly lowering carbon emissions. Economists overwhelmingly support one tool in particular: a carbon dividend, in which the government levies a fee on fossil fuel companies and rebates the proceeds equally to all Americans. A carbon dividend would more than double Build Back Better's emissions cuts, avert millions of deaths from air pollution and even lower poverty and inequality. Manchin, however, has long defended the coal industry against legislation that threatens the high-carbon energy source, including President Barack Obama's cap-and-trade proposal. When it came to Build Back Better, he killed a plan to fine utilities that keep burning fossil fuels, acted as the sole Democratic holdout on a corporate polluter fee and warned in his statement that accelerating decarbonization would have "catastrophic consequences."Where Manchin may not vote to meaningfully address child poverty and climate change, Sen. Mitt Romney (R-Utah) would. In February, Romney released a Child Tax Credit expansion called the Family Security Act, and last week he urged Congress to use that plan as a starting point for bipartisan child benefit reform. Romney has also called for a carbon dividend on multiple occasions, saying in October, "For the life of me I don’t understand why Democrats right now through reconciliation [...] are not planning on putting in place a price on carbon."Romney would likely demand concessions on other parts of Build Back Better, especially the House bill's $275 billion to expand the state and local tax (SALT) deduction and $270 billion to fund childcare. Liberal policy experts, too, have criticized these provisions: SALT expansion favors the rich, while childcare subsidies raise costs for unsubsidized parents, create welfare cliffs that discourage work, and exclude children in non-participating states. Romney's Family Security Act instead repeals SALT and the Child and Dependent Care Tax Credit, making the plan progressive, especially paired with its child benefit, which is more generous than Build Back Better.Renegotiating Build Back Better with Romney as the 50th vote could strengthen its anti-poverty and pro-climate impacts, but it's not the only way to secure an expanded Child Tax Credit and carbon dividend if Manchin won't vote for them. Nor do Democrats have to convince 10 Republican senators to join Romney and overcome the filibuster. Since the Senate can draft two reconciliation bills each year, they could use one for a Manchin Build Back Better Act and another for a Romney "Child Poverty and Carbon Emissions Reduction Act."
Capitol Rioters PPP Loans are Forgiven, But Not Those Damn Students Loans -- I saw this story on PPP Loans at Crooks and Liars. It was a “wow” moment. “The Capitol Rioters Had Their Big PPP Loans Forgiven by the Government” “The Paycheck Protection Program (PPP), promised to cover the cost of employee payroll of small businesses, at a time when the entire nation was shutting down and unable to make ends meet. Amazingly, some of the people who received the money responded, less than a year later, by attempting to kill the very legislators who put the program in place—the ones who kept their businesses afloat and employees able to survive.But the government is forgiving them anyway. In a ProPublica review of PPP data, the Daily Dot found many well-known Capitol insurrectionists have had their loans forgiven. Some were nearly a million dollars.”Meanwhile, Allan Collinge and former students of Student Loan Justice Org. have been campaigning for student loan debt relief. They are being ignored. Congress and successive presidents do not want to take action. The reasoning here is well we did it and paid off our loans, you should be able to do so too!.Student loan devices holding eighteen year olds, adults, and the elderly trying to get ahead has changed quite a bit since the nineties. The last nail in the student loan coffin came in 2005 when Dems and Repubs both signed the 2005 Financial Modernization Act. There is no relief, the burden grows, and less then 50% are making payments,Miscreants attack the Capitol, as Congress counts Electoral Votes, and they receive preferential court treatment? And the government is canceling their loans? Maybe the 1 million students who signed Allan’s petition should attack the capitol too?
What is behind the American Postal Workers Union and the Postmaster General’s 10-year plan? -- Even as postal workers speak out against the tentative agreement that the American Postal Workers Union (APWU) recently reached with the United States Postal Service (USPS), APWU President Mark Dimondstein is praising the deal. “We have reached an agreement that protects the rights and interests of our members,” he said, citing unanimous approval from the National Negotiating Committee and the Rank & File Bargaining Advisory Committee, a misnamed body of local and regional union executives. In reality, the contract is a product of direct collusion between the APWU and the USPS Board of Governors. Both parties aim to escalate the restructuring of the Postal Service, ramping up the exploitation of postal workers and paving the way for privatization. This is proven by the alignment of the APWU contract with the Postmaster General Louis DeJoy’s 10-year plan, which outlines a host of cost-cutting measures. To understand the plan, it is necessary to examine it in its historical context. The USPS has faced declining mail revenue every year since 2006, driven by a shift toward telecommunications and package delivery services and compounded by the US government’s refusal to fully fund this vital public resource. Economic changes, outdated infrastructure, and outright sabotage by US government officials spelled disaster in 2020, the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic. In addition, DeJoy’s policies significantly slowed down the mail and disrupted delivery, adding fuel to allegations of mail-in balloting fraud during the Trump–Biden presidential election. This process only worsened last holiday season. “Only 64 percent of first-class mail in America was delivered on time for the week ending Dec. 26, 2020, a record-poor performance,” Paul Steidler of SupplyChainDive wrote earlier this year. “Yet 94.6 percent of USPS packages met their deadline for the same period.” The goal of DeJoy’s 10-year plan is to discredit the USPS in the public’s eyes by degrading its service through cost-cutting measures. At the same time, the USPS will be reoriented toward same-day and one-day parcel delivery and toward a wider range of business services. These measures will pave the way for its complete reorganization as a privatized, purely profit-driven entity. The plan projects savings of $160 billion over the decade, at the end of which, USPS would have positive annual revenue of $1.3 billion. To accomplish this, the document focuses on the following key priorities: slowing down some delivery services by extending long-distance ship times, shifting from mail-based services to package delivery, raising shipping costs by as much as 9 percent for some services and modernizing delivery vehicles and technology. Delivery savings are predicted to total $10 to $14 billion, arising from the extension of delivery dates and replacing 165,000 of approximately 230,000 vehicles in the next decade. Many vehicles are over 25 years old, and new vehicles will be more fuel-efficient, retrofitted for electric technology, and better equipped to handle high package volume. The $6 billion contract was awarded to Oshkosh Defense, a military contractor that typically builds armored trucks. The company benefited from a mysterious $54 million stock purchase and rising market value one to two days before the contract was publicly announced.
As Omicron Surges, Sanders Says Congress Must Ensure Mass Distribution of N95 Masks --Sen. Bernie Sanders on Sunday demanded that Congress act urgently to ensure the widespread distribution of N95 masks to U.S. households as the highly contagious Omicron variant continues to rip through the country, overwhelming already-strained hospitals nationwide. “As we face the rapidly spreading Omicron variant, we should remember that not all face masks are created equal,” Sanders (I-Vt.), chair of the Senate Budget Committee, wrote on Twitter. “Congress must demand the mass production and distribution of N-95 masks, the most effective way to stop the spread of the Covid virus.” “Ideally, a set of masks would be mailed to each U.S. household every month.” Sanders’ call comes as experts are vocally emphasizing the importance of high-quality masks in stemming the transmission of Omicron, which was first detected in southern Africa last month and has since become the dominant variant in the U.S. and other countries. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention estimates that Omicron now accounts for nearly 75% of new Covid-19 cases in the U.S., which has recorded the most coronavirus deaths in the world. Dr. Anthony Fauci, President Joe Biden’s chief medical adviser, warned Sunday that Omicron cases “likely will go much higher” in the coming days.“Even though we’re pleased by the evidence from multiple countries that it looks like there is a lesser degree of severity, we’ve got to be careful that we don’t get complacent about that,” Fauci said in an appearance on ABC. “It might still lead to a lot of hospitalization in the United States.” With Omicron infections spiking, public health experts have stressed that medical-grade N95 masks are easily preferable to cloth masks, which—according to University of Oxford professor Trish Greenhalgh—are often mere “fashion accessories” that don’t provide adequate protection.Linsey Marr, a virus researcher at Virginia Tech, similarly argued in an interview with NPR last week that “cloth masks are not going to cut it with Omicron.”“I have a lot of confidence in the vaccines, if you’re boosted, in protecting against severe outcomes, and I have a lot of confidence in an N95 and similar types of respirators,” Marr said. “And I think that with those two things, you can still go about a lot of your normal activities.”Last week, after initially mocking the idea, the Biden administration announced a plan to distribute 500 million rapid at-home coronavirus tests to U.S. households that request them. But the federal government has yet to pursue a similar strategy with masks despite months of pleasfrom healthcare workers, experts, and lawmakers.
The Memo: COVID surge multiplies dangers for Biden --President Biden is facing steep political risks as the omicron variant surges, propelling the fight against the pandemic into a new phase. New infections have risen to more than 200,000 per day — and the situation could get much worse. Francis Collins, the outgoing director of the National Institutes of Health, has suggested daily infections could ultimately reach one million. In the United Kingdom, where COVID trends have often presaged those seen in the U.S., daily infections are now over 120,000 in a nation roughly one-fifth as populous. Biden is desperate to avoid any public perception that he is failing to meet the challenge. Speaking at a virtual meeting with governors Monday, the president said, “The bottom line is, we want to assure the American people we are prepared. We know what it takes.” Right now, that involves the deployment of military health personnel to augment civilian staff, the movement of medical equipment into place to prepare for an omicron-led surge, and a promise to provide abundant at-home testing kits beginning next month. But those moves come as public confidence in Biden’s capacity to handle the pandemic has slipped to some of the lowest levels of his presidency. An Economist/YouGov poll shortly before Christmas indicated that 47 percent of Americans disapprove of Biden’s performance on the pandemic compared to 42 percent who approve. Early in his presidency, with mass vaccinations coming on-stream and near-euphoria that the end of COVID seemed to be in sight, Biden often scored 60 percent approval or higher on the pandemic. There are also some question marks hanging over the specifics of the response to omicron. The administration acknowledged just before Christmas that no contract had yet been signed for the 500 million tests Biden has promised will start to become available in January. The sight of long lines for tests on the streets of major cities undermines public confidence too. Then there is the question of whether the administration should have been more proactive in readying for the arrival of new variants. In an interview with the Los Angeles Times earlier this month, Vice President Harris said: “We didn’t see delta coming. I think most scientists did not — upon whose advice and direction we have relied — didn’t see delta coming. We didn’t see omicron coming.” In his Monday remarks, even as Biden reminded voters of the huge increase in the availability of home tests since he took office, he added: “It’s not enough, it’s clearly not enough. If we’d known, we would’ve gone harder, quicker.” Some public health experts argue that it was obvious new variants would emerge, even if the particular features of each one could not be predicted. A scenario in which infections keep soaring, tests are in short supply and disruptions to daily life multiply could be disastrous for the president. The population is already wearied by almost two years of the pandemic — a fractiousness that almost certainly plays into the president’s low approval ratings.
CDC surrenders US population to the spread of Omicron - As the Omicron variant of coronavirus surges exponentially and out of control, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) announced Monday afternoon a radical change in its isolation and quarantine guidelines, not to defend the American people from this impending disaster but to preemptively capitulate to it. The CDC is cutting its recommendation of a 10-day isolation period for positive cases—itself an arbitrary reduction from the 14 days recommended by epidemiologists—to five days of isolation, followed by five days of mask-wearing, for those without symptoms. For those in contact with a positive case but not infected themselves, there was a similar cut in the recommended isolation period from 10 days to five days for those who are fully vaccinated, and to zero for those who have received booster shots. Since asymptomatic people can be infectious for 10 days or even longer, this means that hundreds of thousands—and soon millions, given the exponential spread of Omicron—will be sent into workplaces to infect their co-workers. Even those fully boosted have only 75 percent protection against Omicron. That means that if 60 million people who have received booster shots come into contact with a COVID-19 case and are sent back to work without even a day off, 15 million of them would be carrying the infection with them to spread. CDC Director Rochelle Walensky openly admitted that an enormous surge in Omicron cases was taking place and that it was necessary loosen quarantine and isolation rules, which would otherwise take too many people out of the economy for too long. “Not all of those cases are going to be severe. In fact many are going to be asymptomatic,” she told the Associated Press. “We want to make sure there is a mechanism by which we can safely continue to keep society functioning while following the science.” The reference to “following the science” is mere pretense. As for “society functioning,” this means only one thing under capitalism: maintaining the flow of profits to the capitalist class. Public health is being subordinated to corporate profit. Science is being junked to appease the howls of American business interests over the exodus of workers under the combined impact of the spread of Omicron and the perfectly justified fears of infection from the new variant.
Trump's surgeon general criticizes CDC guidance - Former Surgeon General Jerome Adams advised against following recent COVID-19 guidance from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) asserting that some people infected with the virus could end their quarantine after just five days."I love the CDC. Grew up wanting to work there and have been one of their most ardent defenders. I never dreamed the day would come when I would advise people NOT to follow their guidance," Adams said in atweet on Tuesday. "Regardless of what CDC says, you really should try to obtain an antigen test," Adams added in another tweet. "There’s not a scientist or doctor I’ve met yet who wouldn’t do this for themselves/ their family."The surgeon general's remarks come after the CDC reduced its recommended isolation period from 10 days to five days for people infected with COVID-19 who are asymptomatic. The CDC added that people should continue masking around others for five days longer after leaving isolation.The agency said that the decision was rooted in science that indicated the majority of virus transmission occurs earlier in the illness's course. But Anthony Fauci, the Biden administration's chief medical adviser, suggested the decision was for purposes of getting people back to work. “The reason is that with the sheer volume of new cases that we are having and that we expect to continue with omicron, one of the things we want to be careful of is we don’t have so many people out,” Fauci said on CNN, adding that he thought the decision was a good choice. “If you are asymptotic and you are infected, we want to get people back to the jobs, especially those with essential jobs,” he added.
Biden administration withdraws federal COVID-19 safety standards for health care workers - The Occupation Safety and Health Administration (OSHA) has announced it is withdrawing most of its Emergency Temporary Standards regarding workplace COVID-19 protections for hundreds of thousands of health care workers. The federal agency took the little publicized action Monday evening, one week after it allowed the six-month emergency temporary standard, or ETS, to expire without establishing permanent standards to replace them. In a brief statement on its website, the agency wrote, “OSHA announces today that it intends to continue to work expeditiously to issue a final standard that will protect healthcare workers from COVID-19 hazards. … However, given that OSHA anticipates a final rule cannot be completed in a timeframe approaching the one contemplated by the OSH Act, OSHA also announces today that it is withdrawing the non-recordkeeping portions of the healthcare ETS…” The expired standards were originally applied on June 21, 2021, at health care settings where COVID-19 patients were treated. While OSHA never aggressively enforced the rules, they nevertheless required employers with more than 10 employees to develop and implement written plans for workplace protections. This included requirements for facemasks and PPE, HVAC systems, health screening and medical management, protections while using aerosol-generating procedures on persons with suspected or confirmed COVID-19, physical distancing, workstation barriers and cleaning and disinfection protocols. Other requirements included paid leave for vaccinations and vaccination recovery, protections against management retaliation for reporting violations of COVID-19 protections, employee COVID-19 logs and reporting work-related COVID-19 fatalities and in-patient hospitalizations. OSHA claims it will continue to enforce recordkeeping provisions requiring COVID-19 logs and case reports, since they were established under separate provisions of the Occupational Safety and Health Act (OSH Act). In reality, employers already flout such provisions and regularly conceal information about the outbreaks and deaths from workers. While OSHA claims it is preparing permanent standards, the decision by the Biden administration’s health and safety agency essentially gives the giant health care companies a free hand to continue endangering the health and lives of frontline health care workers, who are already being worked beyond the breaking point in chronically understaffed and underequipped hospitals and long-term care facilities.
CDC backs corporate demands to force the sick back to work - On Monday, the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) updated its guidelines for isolation and quarantine times, cutting the recommended isolation period for people infected with COVID-19 in half, from 10 days to 5 days. Those who are exposed to someone with the virus are encouraged to only quarantine for five days if “feasible,” or not at all if they have received a third “booster” shot. The guidance means that five days after testing positive or having been exposed to someone who has tested positive, workers will be expected to return to work if they do not have symptoms. No reference is made on the need for workers to test negative for COVID-19 before reentering the workforce. The guidance will only add force to demands by employers that ill workers get back on the job. On Monday, tens of thousands of people retweeted a Twitter post by an infected worker reporting that she was told to come to work by her employer, with hundreds of service, retail, transportation and health care workers, and even soldiers, commenting that they were told to do the same. Combined with a nationwide testing shortage, the CDC’s new policies will only deepen the already massive surge of the pandemic fueled by the more transmissible and immune-evading Omicron variant. It has been known since the start of the pandemic that people infected with COVID-19 can transmit the virus even when they are not symptomatic. Over the past two weeks, the seven-day average of daily new cases in the US has more than doubled, from 120,563 to 266,563, primarily due to Omicron. According to data compiled by newsnodes.com, the United States posted a shocking 472,000 COVID-19 cases on Monday. The move was met with overwhelming condemnation by public health experts, and with ridicule by the public, as a capitulation to the demands of corporations that will lead to mass infections. Millions saw clearly that the CDC’s change in policy was dictated by corporate interests and represents the latest abandonment of its responsibility to protect public health. Data scientist Dr. Jorge Caballero wrote, “I’ve lost all respect for the CDC.” Scientist Eric Topol tweeted a blank page to represent “data that supports” the CDC’s position. Virologist Angela Rasmussen called the decision “reckless and, Frankly, stupid.” One of the most widely shared criticisms of the policy change was from cardiologist Dr. Haitham Ahmed, who wrote, “CDC shortened quarantine duration from 10 to 5 days. They felt this gets workers back faster & ‘minimizes disruptions.’ Except median viral shedding is >5 days and it’s the start of a surge. CDC is not the center for commerce & corporations. It’s the center for DISEASE CONTROL.” There is no public health basis for the CDC’s new recommendations. Rather, they were clearly determined by the needs of the corporations, which face increasingly severe staffing shortages. In particular, the airline industry had lobbied the CDC throughout the past week to change its guidelines, as thousands of flights have been canceled due to mass infections among staff.
Fauci says CDC cut isolation time so people return to work faster - - President Biden's chief medical adviser Anthony Fauci on Monday said the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's (CDC) decision to cut its recommended isolation time for people infected with COVID-19 who are asymptomatic will allow people to get back to work more quickly. The decision comes amid a huge uptick in cases that is only expected to get larger because of the highly contagious omicron variant. “The reason is that with the sheer volume of new cases that we are having and that we expect to continue with omicron, one of the things we want to be careful of is we don’t have so many people out,” Fauci told CNN’s Jim Acosta on Monday. The new variant does not appear to lead to COVID-19 cases as severe as some previous variants, though tests are continuing. The federal government and public health experts are recommending booster shots in addition to vaccinations in order to combat omicron. “If you are asymptotic and you are infected, we want to get people back to the jobs, especially those with essential jobs,” Fauci added. The CDC reduced the isolation time from 10 to five days, as long as the infected person is asymptomatic and wears a mask around other people at all times for another five days. Fauci said the decision to reduce the isolation time, which applies to everyone regardless of vaccination status, was a good choice. “They can get back to the workplace, doing things that are important to keep society running smoothly,” Fauci said. When asked if it’s tough for Americans to keep track of the changes out of the CDC, Fauci noted that with many omicron cases, people don’t have symptoms or have minimal symptoms. “It just makes sense, keeping them out for five days,” he said. “I don’t think it’s confusing, I think it’s a rather crisp recommendation.” Amid the rise in omicron cases, other White House officials have been quick to point out that hospitalizations haven’t been as high as previously during the pandemic. When asked about the new metric that focuses more on hospitalizations rather than cases, Fauci said the administration will still count cases, but that many of those infections are mild. Fauci also acknowledged the issue many Americans are facing trying to get tests after the scramble to get tested over Christmas. “Quite frankly, we don’t have enough tests at this particular point in time,” he said.
Outrage among US workers over CDC decision to reduce quarantine guidelines - Anger is growing in the working class in the United States in response to Monday’s announcement by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) that it was shortening its guidelines for quarantining for positive cases from 10 days to five. In remarks to the press, CDC Director Rochelle Walensky and Biden’s top COVID adviser Anthony Fauci admitted that the purpose of loosening the restrictions is to ensure the supply of labor for American businesses. This occurs while the surge of the Omicron variant is expected to infect 140 million Americans in the next three months, more than 40 percent of the country. The announcement amounts to an abdication by the federal government of any pretense of attempting to contain the pandemic. Instead, workers are being told that they must learn to live—and to die—with the virus, in the name of protecting the “economy,” a euphemism for the profit margins and share values of the major corporations. It follows a televised address last week by President Biden in which he rejected new lockdowns of schools and workplaces, and even encouraged Americans not to cancel their holiday travel plans. However, the spread of the virus itself among airline workers forced the cancellation of thousands of flights. An appeal to the CDC by the heads of major airlines is what immediately prompted the change to quarantine guidelines. The announcement has stunned and angered workers, who are being confronted with the fact that the corporate and political establishment consider their lives and those of their friends and relatives expendable. One tweet by a worker who was instructed to come to work even though his roommate tested positive was liked more than 360,000 times and retweeted 44,000 times. Workers flooded the replies to the tweet with their own horror stories from work and school. One such tweet read, “I'm a high school teacher and when I was told two weeks ago during lunch that the group of people I had dinner with tested positive I told my admin that I was leaving to get tested. The [New York City Department of Education] told me if I didn't have any symptoms, I would be docked a half day. I was positive.” Another tweet read, “My granddaughter’s Daycare sent a text last night that said one of the care givers had tested positive but is asymptomatic and will still be coming to work. Just a heads up in case someone didn’t want their kid exposed. Unbelievable.” Another said, “My sister's workplace told her to just come to work because you could test positive for 3 months so it doesn't matter if you come to work. and they didn’t tell other employees when someone got covid. gotta love america.”
CDC comes under fire for new COVID-19 guidance - The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) is under fire from health experts and employee groups who say the new COVID-19 isolation and quarantine guidance has too many holes. The isolation guidelines announced late Monday apply to everyone, regardless of vaccination status. Some health experts said they worry people will leave isolation while still contagious, and raised questions about the CDC's decision making.Critics also argue the guidelines ignore the benefits of rapid antigen testing by not requiring those tests, and rely on a one-size-fits-all approach that makes assumptions about the fast-spreading omicron variant that may not be true."Regardless of what CDC says, you really should try to obtain an antigen test (I know- easier said than done) and confirm it’s negative prior to leaving isolation and quarantine," former Surgeon General Jerome Adams wrote on Twitter. "There’s not a scientist or doctor I’ve met yet who wouldn’t do this for themselves/ their family," Adams wrote. But officials said the change was necessary in order to keep the country's economic infrastructure from collapsing. "The reason is that with the sheer volume of new cases that we are having and that we expect to continue with omicron, one of the things we want to be careful of is we don’t have so many people out,” President Biden's chief medical adviser Anthony Fauci told CNN’s Jim Acosta on Monday.In the early days of the pandemic, CDC recommended a 14-day isolation period for anyone infected with the virus. That eventually changed to 10 days, regardless of a person's vaccination status and whether or not they were symptomatic.On Monday evening, federal officials cut in half the recommended time needed to isolate after a COVID-19 infection for those not showing symptoms. The CDC also made changes to guidelines on quarantining after exposure to someone who has been infected. The CDC said that after five days of isolation is up, people should wear a mask around others at all times for another five days. The guidelines did not include a requirement to test before leaving isolation.The agency has been under pressure from business groups to shorten the isolation period to cut down on staffing shortages. The guidelines announced Monday came less than a week after the CDC made a similar move for health workers. Notably, Delta Air Lines CEO Ed Bastian sent a letter to the CDC, cosigned by the company's medical adviser and well-known epidemiologist Carlos Del Rio, proposing a five-day isolation period.But Delta also suggested individuals in isolation would be able end it with an "appropriate testing protocol." No such language was in the CDC's guidance. Michael Mina, an epidemiologist and chief science officer at eMed, said having no testing requirement was "reckless."
Administration’s Obvious Covid Flail: Officially Abdicates as Case Count Hits Record; Scientists and Press Misrepresent Data to Put Happy Face on Omicron by Yves Smith = It’s become painfully evident that the “follow the science” and Biden Administration campaign promise to act as the adults in the room are a sick joke. Policy all politics. Public health long ago left the barn and is now in the next county. Biden threw in the towel on Monday after having promised on the campaign trail to shut down the virus: While constitutionally, public health is indeed a state and local responsibility, the Feds have the say over interstate commerce, and they also have many other powerful levers they can pull though their bully pulpit, data collection and dissemination, and their ability to fund nationwide programs. We’ve instead had inconsistent, often inaccurate, and actively damaging messaging (“if you are vaccinated, you are protected”; “the vaccinated can stop masking”) but also making things worse by not understanding how poor the CDC’s data is (something the agency has abjectly failed to address) made worse by officials apparently believing their own spin. The latest is the CDC making horrendous decisions based on its own crap information. The agency admitted that its December 18 estimate, that Omicron represented 73% of all cases, was too high and the point estimate should have been 22.5%. This CDC bad call, just like its 2020 fail on test kits, has real world implications. IM Doc had been complaining that his hospital could no longer get Regeneron when his patients were clamoring for it. He learned from his mafia that the CDC had believed its 73% Omicron estimate and based on monoclonal antibodies not being effective against Omicron, it wasn’t cost justified. IM Doc is sure some of his patients have Delta and he now can’t treat them properly. Yet alarmingly, we are also seeing Saint Fauci and Rochelle Walenksy, despite their repeated abject failures, act as they are in running Covid policy, in defiance of Biden and the states. Fauci tried to assert authority over the airline industry during his Sunday talk show rounds by pumping for a vaccine mandate for domestic air travel. This was extremely presumptuous in light of: The industry lobbying Congress during formal testimony for an end to masking, based on the claim that planes have super duper filtered air (yes, but what about the guy near you coughing or talking and his Covid cooties getting to you before a filter?)Delta [the airline] petitioning for reducing vaccine quarantines to five days for the fully vaccinated…despite evidence that for Delta [the variant], and even more so for Omicron, the vaccines do little if anything to reduce spread. On Monday, the Administration capitulated to Delta’s request and reduced the recommended quarantine to five days, and Fauci reversed himself on a vaccine mandate for flights. Even former Administration backers were gobsmacked. From the Financial Times:Eric Topol, director of the Scripps Research Translational Institute in California, said: “It seems pretty chaotic. You have an announcement yesterday on isolation guidance with no data, no evidence, nothing. And this is from an administration that says it wants to stick to the science.“Then today, we have the drastic changes to their genomic estimates. The last 24 hours show that the credibility of the agency is lower than it has been at any point during this administration.” Topol has even more unkind words in The very bad day at the CDC, which I strongly urge you to read in full. Scientist GM’s take on the quarantine reduction: So now if you work in, for example, retail or fast food, your boss can force you to come back to work on Day 6, where you will proceed to infect all customers you interact with. Also, people will die on the job because of this. How is that going to play out in practice?You test positive, then you go through the flu-like phase of COVID. A lot of people will not at all be in any shape to come back to work on day 6, many are still really sick at that time. But bigger problem comes later — you have come back to work, you start your shift, then the day-10 rapid deterioration kicks in, at which point you need to be in the hospital ASAP. But you just started your shift and will be fired if you leave so you try to carry on.One hypothesis about why we no longer see people randomly dropping on the street as was the case early on on in China, Iran, Italy, etc. is that everyone is aware of COVID now and has tested positive before it gets to that point and is thus either in hospital or isolating at home. While those people randomly dropping dead were the rapid deterioration or heart attack/stroke cases that thought they had the flu at the time nobody was aware of COVID and were thus were freely walking around.We are about to test that hypothesis now… P.S. This is straight up premeditated mass murder at this point.
The CDC’s Defense of Its New COVID Guidelines Is Complete Nonsense - The Biden administration has spent much of the past two days trying to defend its widely pilloried new guidelines for how long Americans should isolate if they contract COVID-19. So far, the effort hasn’t been very convincing.With case counts surging amid the omicron wave, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention on Monday cut its recommended isolation and quarantine time from 10 days down to five for people who are asymptomatic or for those whose “symptoms are resolving.” After that, people can return to normal life, but should wear a mask for an additional five days, according to the agency.The reduction makes some sense: In recent weeks, a number of public health leaders have suggested that 10 days of isolation was excessive, especially forthe vaccinated, and that the wait time could perhaps be cut by half given a negative test. Other countries have taken a similar approach; in England, for instance, individuals only have to isolate for seven days if they come up negative on consecutive rapid antigen tests.The key in those arguments and policies, though, is the negative test. The CDC’s new guidance, in contrast, does not recommend a test before exiting isolation. This is a huge difference—one that could mean many, many people exit a period of careful isolation only to walk around and spread the highly contagious virus. The most generous feedback could be described as “partially supportive.” Experts have mostly described the CDC’s decision as “reckless,”not based in science, and “bullshit.”In response, administration officials have since embarked on a media tour to try and justify the new guidelines. CDC Director Rochelle Walensky told CNNthat the agency chose five days because that’s typically the period when individuals are most infectious. “Those five days account for somewhere between 85 to 90 percent of all transmission that occurs,” she said. “So we really wanted to make sure that most of those five days were spent in isolation.” What about the transmission that can happen on later days? Five days, Walensky said, was the amount of time “we thought people would be able to tolerate.” Anthony Fauci, currently the chief medical adviser to President Joe Biden, was even more frank: “The reason is that with the sheer volume of new cases that we are having and that we expect to continue with omicron, one of the things we want to be careful of is that we don’t have so many people out,” he explained on CNN. That is, we need people to get out of isolation so that they can get back to work. These are fine rationales for significantly cutting the amount of time people isolate—if they test negative before they leave isolation. After all, there’s no point in making workers call in sick (and potentially forcing their employers to shut down) if they’re unlikely to be contagious. And given that spending 10 days in isolation is incredibly disruptive, it’s possible that the old, longer quarantine recommendation might have discouraged some people from even getting tested for COVID in the first place.
Pentagon goes on offense vs GOP on vaccine mandates -The Pentagon is on the offensive after a cascade of Republican lawmakers have pushed back over a COVID-19 vaccine mandate for service members. The issue has quickly snowballed since early last month, when Oklahoma Gov. Kevin Stitt (R) tipped off the battle over who calls the shots in enforcing the requirement for National Guardsmen. Now, with Texas becoming the seventh state to declare they will not impose the mandate on their National Guard, the Pentagon is grappling with how to make sure its mandate is followed and how to prevent further states from piling on and resisting it. “We’re not going to make an active effort here to try to tell other states not to express their concerns. So I don't know plans to proactively reach out to governors on this,” Pentagon press secretary John Kirby told The Hill when asked whether Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin planned to contact governors he thinks might follow suit. “The only thing I would say is what I've said before — the vaccine is a valid military readiness requirement. It remains such.” The Biden administration’s vaccine mandate has become a hot-button issue in the military since Austin announced in late August that it would be applied to all defense personnel. The Pentagon chief allowed each military service to set its own deadlines for compliance, with most falling on dates in November and December and the furthest out belonging to the Army National Guard’s and Reserve’s June 30 cutoff. But Republican lawmakers have repeatedly called for the department to rescind the requirement, arguing or backing a range of claims, including Stitt’s stance that the mandate is unconstitutional and will hurt national security. “This mandate ensures that many Oklahoma National Guard members will simply quit instead of getting a vaccine, a situation that will irreparably harm Oklahomans’ safety and security,” reads a complaint filed Dec. 2 by the state of Oklahoma in a federal lawsuit. Stitt, who in early November first asked Austin to exempt his state’s National Guard members from the mandate — a request which the Pentagon chief denied — has been at odds with the department ever since, declaring that he would not enforce the requirement for the Oklahoma guard. The battle, at its core, comes down to the Pentagon’s murky authority over the National Guard while troops are under Title 32 of the U.S. Code, the law that allows a governor to manage their state’s guardsmen unless they are called up for federal duty. The National Guard, which has dueling obligations to both the state and federal government, falls under federal authority when mobilized by the president, as stipulated by Title 10 of the U.S. Code. Making things more complicated, even while under Title 32 guard troops are paid with federal dollars when they receive training or further education, a fact that means they must follow the mandate regardless of duty status, according to Defense officials. But Stitt argues that until his guardsmen are called up by the president, the vaccine mandate exceeds Austin’s authority. Not so, Austin shot back, producing a late November memo that made clear all National Guard and Reserve troops — even those on state duty — who do not get the shot could face loss of pay, among other consequences.
Vaccine Mandate For Domestic Flights Not Being Considered, Says CDC Director After Fauci's Proposal - A COVID-19 vaccine mandate for domestic flights is not currently being considered by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), CDC Director Rochelle Walensky confirmed on Tuesday.“Certainly, domestic flights has been a topic of conversation but that is not something we’re revisiting right now,” Walensky told NPR when pressed on the issue. Walensky also elaborated on the CDC’s decision to cut its recommended isolation time for infected Americans in half—from 10 days to five if they are asymptomatic.“We are standing on the shoulders now of two years of science,” Walenksy told NPR of the new rules, explaining that “the vast majority of transmission occurs” around two days prior to the onset of symptoms and three days after.“So in that five day window is really when that transmission is happening.”Walensky acknowledged that although transmission can occur after the fifth day of isolation, the CDC made the decision to reduce its recommended isolation time for infected Americans because it anticipates a “really large” number of cases due to the Omicron variant of the novel coronavirus.“We also want to make sure that we keep the critical functions of society open and operating. We started to see challenges with that, with airline flights and other areas,” the CDC director explained.Her remarks come a day after infectious disease expert Dr. Anthony Fauci suggested that the Biden administration should “seriously” consider vaccine requirements for domestic air travel.Proof of vaccination is currently only required for noncitizens entering the United States, as well as a negative COVID-19 test within 24 hours of departure.
Rand Paul: Thousands Dying Every Month Because Of Fauci's Obsession With Pushing Vaccines --Senator Rand Paul has warned that thousands of Americans are dying from COVID every month because Anthony Fauci is obsessed with pushing vaccines in place of therapeutic treatments that are effective in treating the virus. Appearing on his Father Ron Paul’s Liberty Report, the Senator noted that Fauci has displayed a bias toward vaccines since he attempted and failed to produce a vaccine for AIDS and HIV in the 1980s and 90s. “I would venture to say that thousands of people die in our country every month now because [Fauci] has deemphasized the idea that there are therapeutics,” Paul urged. “Because he’s made this mistake of de-emphasizing natural immunity, I think thousands of people have lost their lives,” the Senator continued, adding “For instance, I’ve already had it [Covid-19] I should be at the end of the line.” “Many older people die, and many 35-year-old people are being vaccinated, that makes no scientific sense,” Paul emphasised. Ron Paul then asked his son if he believes the pandemic was brought about as part of a conspiracy. “Do you think there was a plan to bring this about, and Fauci was there, and part of the plan with Gates, or do you think something was happening at a more modest rate and they jumped on it and twisted it and made a big deal of it?” the Senior Paul asked. Rand Paul responded “So the pandemic comes, there’s this natural worry media plays up worry, because it sells,” adding “I would call it less of a conspiracy and more of a philosophy.” “I think Fauci is of the philosophy that vaccines are incredibly successful and are the way to go versus therapeutics, for example.” “I blame Dr. Fauci because he was never on TV saying if you get sick there is a treatment,” Paul explained, adding “Because it’s everything about the vaccine, and if you’re not vaccinated you’re unclean. You’re like a leper.” Watch the full interview below:
Termination of unvaccinated health care workers backfires as Biden pledges help amid COVID surge - President Biden is deploying military doctors and health care workers to bolster hospitals amid the spike in omicron variant cases. But in the last few months, thousands of health care workers across the nation have been terminated over refusing to comply with vaccine mandates, leaving health care providers in the lurch with staffing shortages while bracing for more patients. "We’re mobilizing an additional 1,000 military doctors and nurses and medics to help staff hospitals," Biden said Monday during the COVID-19 Response Team’s regular call with the National Governors Association. "FEMA is deploying hundreds of ambulances and EMS crews to transport patients. We’ve already deployed emergency response teams in Colorado, Michigan, Minnesota, Vermont, New Hampshire, and New Mexico. We’re ready to provide more hospital beds as well." In New York state, Gov. Kathy Hochul declared a state of emergency over the omicron variant and called in the National Guard to assist with nursing homes. She added that hospitals in the state at over 90% capacity could be ordered to stop elective procedures to focus on the surge. Biden said testing facilities will also be opened in the state. Four months ago, disgraced former New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo announced a vaccine mandate for health care workers, and those who did not comply faced termination. Since then 31,858 health care workers at nursing homes, hospitals and other health providers have been terminated, furloughed or forced to resign because they would not comply with the mandate, according to New York health data provided to Fox News. The total number of inactive employees in the state due to the vaccine mandate sits at 37,192 as of Dec. 21, according to the data. More than 2,350 nursing home staffers alone were fired for not complying. The New York National Guard deployed 120 members to 12 nursing homes and long term care facilities to assist with staffing shortages this month. Nurses who still have jobs in the state have been sounding the alarm on the staffing shortages for months, and are bracing for it to only get worse.
"Look, There Is No Federal Solution": Biden Backtracks On Vow To 'Shut Down' Covid-19’ - On October 22, 2020, then-candidate Joe Biden vowed to "shut down the virus, not the country."14 months later, now-President Biden just admitted that there's no 'federal solution' to the pandemic, and that it's up to individual states to do what he promised."Look, there is no federal solution," he said during a call with state governors. "This gets solved at state level … and that ultimately gets down to where the rubber meets the road, and that’s where the patient is in need of help — or preventing the need for help.""My message to the governors is simple: if you need something, say something. We’re going to have your back in any way we can," Biden added.Watch:Things already weren't looking good on the 'shutting down' front last week...Biden's admission comes days after a Vanity Fair report which revealed that the Biden admin rejected an October proposal to provide rapid at-home tests to Americans before the holidays, allowing them to screen themselves at will and thereby help reduce transmission.The plan, in effect, was a blueprint for how to avoid what is happening at this very moment—endless lines of desperate Americans clamoring for tests in order to safeguard holiday gatherings, just as COVID-19 is exploding again. Yesterday, President Biden told David Muir of ABC News, “I wish I had thought about ordering” 500 million at-home tests “two months ago.” But the proposal shared at the meeting in October, disclosed here for the first time, included a “Bold Plan for Impact” and a provision for “Every American Household to Receive Free Rapid Tests for the Holidays/New Year.” -VFIn short, Biden isn't even trying to 'shut down' the virus. Adding insult to injury, White House Press Secretary scoffed at the idea of nationwide home tests three weeks ago."Should we just send one to every American?"
Rep. Bobby Rush tests positive in breakthrough case - Democratic Illinois Rep. Bobby Rush on Monday confirmed that he had tested positive with a breakthrough case of COVID-19 after having recently received a booster shot of the coronavirus vaccine. "Today, after being notified of a recent exposure, I tested positive with a breakthrough case of COVID-19. Fortunately, I am fully vaccinated and recently received my booster shot. I am feeling fine and currently have no symptoms," Rush wrote on Twitter. The 75-year-old congressman said he will be going into quarantine and encouraged others to get boosted as soon as possible, citing the continued spread of the omicron variant. Numerous other congressional lawmakers have tested positive for COVID-19 in the past few weeks, including Reps. Nicole Malliotakis (R-N.Y.) and Barbara Lee (D-Calif.) as well as Sens. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) and Cory Booker (D-N.J.).
Ayanna Pressley says she has tested COVID-19 positive in breakthrough case --Massachusetts Rep. Ayanna Pressley (D) announced Friday that she has tested positive for COVID-19 in a breakthrough case. “After experiencing COVID-like symptoms, this morning I received a positive, breakthrough COVID-19 test result. Thankfully, my symptoms are relatively mild, and I am grateful to be fully vaccinated and boosted,” Pressley said in a statement. Pressley said that she has entered isolation and will follow public health guidelines, and urged Americans to get fully vaccinated against the virus. “Vaccines save lives. With this unprecedented pandemic continuing to rage, I am deeply grateful for the scientists, researchers, and frontline healthcare workers who have worked tirelessly to develop vaccines that are safe and effective, and ensure that our communities are protected,” Pressley said. “I encourage everyone to do their part by getting vaccinated, boosted and masking up. I wish everyone a safe and happy new year and look forward to continuing to fight for the robust relief our communities in the Massachusetts 7th need and deserve,” she concluded. Pressley is the latest in a slew of lawmakers, including Sens. Cory Booker (D-N.J.) and Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.), who have recently come down with COVID-19. The U.S. is dealing with a winter surge of COVID-19 infections as the omicron variant has taken hold across the nation.thehill.com
Biden administration announces $137M deal to boost production of key Covid test component — The Defense Department has announced a $137 million contract to make more of a key component of rapid Covid tests to boost their production. The company, Millipore Sigma, plans to build a new facility over a three-year-period to produce nitrocellulose membranes, the paper that shows the results in rapid tests, in Sheboygan, Wisconsin. That will support the production of more than 83 million tests a month, the Pentagon said in a statement Wednesday. The contract is part of the administration's effort to ramp up production of rapid Covid tests as the U.S. grapples with the highly infectious omicron variant. Antigen tests, which produce results in minutes, can be done at home, while PCR tests are processed in labs and have longer turnaround times. In all, 1.8 million cases were reported in the U.S. last week, a 69.3 percent increase from the week before. Earlier this month, President Joe Biden announced a plan to distribute 500 million at-home coronavirus test kits to help address the crisis. Testing remains one of the biggest challenges for the administration, with long lines forming at testing centers in recent days and at-home rapid tests selling out quickly, public health officials have said. The U.S. also lags behind other countries in making tests affordable. In some countries, rapid tests sell for as little at $1, whereas a pack of two tests can cost U.S. consumers more than $20. Biden previously directed insurance companies to cover the cost of at-home tests for policyholders, but that still requires upfront costs for consumers, who must file claims and wait to be reimbursed.
Biden's goal of 500 million free tests will require major production scale-up— Meeting President Joe Biden’s goal of offering 500 million free at-home Covid-19 tests for Americans will require a massive scale-up in test manufacturing that may take months to achieve — falling short of demand as the omicron variant drives a surge in infections.The U.S. had a supply of around 200 million at-home rapid tests in December. Test-makers have indicated they will be able to increase that to just over 500 million a month by March with added capacity from current manufacturers and the recent clearance of two new tests from Roche and Siemens, according to estimates from Mara Aspinall, a health professor at Arizona State University who tracks the testing market.Not all of those tests will go to the federal government’s free testing effort. A White House official said the 500 million free at-home tests will come from additional supply the administration is anticipating will be added. But even with new tests being approved and manufacturers racing to expand capacity, the number of new tests available is expected to grow just modestly in January while Roche and Siemens begin packaging and shipping their products, ramping up more significantly in February. That means it could take several months for the federal government to meet its goal, according to production targets from the manufacturers and Aspinall’s estimates."I am much more confident than I was a week ago that we can meet the need," Aspinall said. "The challenge is how quickly we can get those tests shipped out and how quickly we can meet that 500 million goal."Administration officials haven’t said when they expect to have all 500 million tests available for the public, beyond saying the first batch of tests will start going out sometime in January. Officials with the Defense Department and Department of Health and Human Services are aiming to finalize contracts with test manufacturing companies late next week and are working on an “accelerated contracting timeline,” White House Covid response coordinator Jeffrey Zients said Wednesday. Officials are also still working on the website where people will be able to request a test and a system for distributing them, he said. It also remains unclear how the tests will be distributed, which agency will be tasked with that process and how many tests each person will be able to get. “It’s the combination of understanding the supplying pathways, then on top of that figuring out what the supply chain looks like, what the distribution looks like and how the whole process comes together.” Even before Biden announced his plan for the federal government to buy 500 million tests, representatives for test manufacturers had been pushing to ramp up production further, hiring more workers, adding shifts and tapping subcontractors to help, with production going from 80 million tests in November to just over 200 million in December. Abbott, maker of BinaxNow, said it plans to increase capacity to 70 million tests per month from 50 million, and Quidel is increasing its production of the QuickVue test to the same amount. Access Bio said it was targeting 25 million tests for December and planned to produce an additional 40 million in the coming months. Ellume said it will start making 15 million more tests a month after production launches at its new facility in Frederick, Maryland, in January.
Biden administration announces $137M deal to boost production of key Covid test component — The Defense Department has announced a $137 million contract to make more of a key component of rapid Covid tests to boost their production. The company, Millipore Sigma, plans to build a new facility over a three-year-period to produce nitrocellulose membranes, the paper that shows the results in rapid tests, in Sheboygan, Wisconsin. That will support the production of more than 83 million tests a month, the Pentagon said in a statement Wednesday. The contract is part of the administration's effort to ramp up production of rapid Covid tests as the U.S. grapples with the highly infectious omicron variant. Antigen tests, which produce results in minutes, can be done at home, while PCR tests are processed in labs and have longer turnaround times. In all, 1.8 million cases were reported in the U.S. last week, a 69.3 percent increase from the week before. Earlier this month, President Joe Biden announced a plan to distribute 500 million at-home coronavirus test kits to help address the crisis. Testing remains one of the biggest challenges for the administration, with long lines forming at testing centers in recent days and at-home rapid tests selling out quickly, public health officials have said. The U.S. also lags behind other countries in making tests affordable. In some countries, rapid tests sell for as little at $1, whereas a pack of two tests can cost U.S. consumers more than $20. Biden previously directed insurance companies to cover the cost of at-home tests for policyholders, but that still requires upfront costs for consumers, who must file claims and wait to be reimbursed.
Judge rules The New York Times must destroy documents and not publish reporting on conservative group The New York Times must return memos it obtained that were written by an attorney for the conservative activist group Project Veritas, a judge in New York ruled Friday.The ruling by New York state court judge Charles Wood affirms his temporary order last month in favor of the conservative activist group. The developments prevent The New York Times from reporting on memos written years ago by Project Veritas' attorney Benjamin Barr, which the paper had published last month, along with a story about how the conservative group, notorious for sting operations often conducted under false names or with hidden cameras, obtains information. The New York Times story in question, "Project Veritas and the Line Between Journalism and Political Spying," had reported on Barr's advice to Project Veritas members about, among other things, the group's efforts to spy on government employees to gauge their sentiments toward then-President Donald Trump. Wood, a Republican who has held office since 2010, rejected The New York Times' argument that the memos involved issues of public concern. "It is not the public's business to be privy to the legal advice that this plaintiff or any other client receives from its counsel," he wrote in his ruling. The ruling also orders The New York Times to give back the documents obtained by its journalists over the course of reporting on Project Veritas' methods, a development The Times' publisher, A.G. Sulzberger, said has "no apparent precedent," and argued that it "could present obvious risks to exposing sources," according to his statement Friday. "This ruling should raise alarms not just for advocates of press freedoms but for anyone concerned about the dangers of government overreach into what the public can and cannot know," Sulzberger said. "In defiance of law settled in the Pentagon Papers case, this judge has barred The Times from publishing information about a prominent and influential organization that was obtained legally in the ordinary course of reporting." "Justice Wood has taken it upon himself to decide what The Times can and cannot report on. That's not how the First Amendment is supposed to work," the paper's editorial board wrote on Friday.The newspaper is appealing the ruling, according to Sulzberger's statement.
Trump warns Alaska GOP governor he'll revoke endorsement if he backs Murkowski -- Former President Trump on Tuesday endorsed Alaska Gov. Mike Dunleavy’s (R) reelection bid, but only on the condition that Dunleavy doesn’t back Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska) in 2022. “Alaska needs Mike Dunleavy as Governor now more than ever,” Trump said in a statement. “He has my Complete and Total Endorsement but, this endorsement is subject to his non-endorsement of Senator Lisa Murkowski who has been very bad for Alaska.” “In other words, if Mike endorses her, which is his prerogative, my endorsement of him is null and void, and of no further force or effect!” Trump added. Trump has vowed political revenge on Murkowski ever since she voted earlier this year to convict the former president on an impeachment charge of inciting an insurrection at the U.S. Capitol in January. Of the seven Republican senators who voted to convict the former president, Murkowski is the only one facing reelection in 2022. Trump has already endorsed one of Murkowski’s primary opponents, former Alaska Department of Administration Commissioner Kelly Tshibaka. While only one other Republican has jumped into the race for Alaska governor, a ballot measure approved by voters last year means that Dunleavy will face an open primary in 2022, pitting him against candidates from all parties. One other Republican, state Rep. Christopher Kurka, has jumped into the race for governor. The top four voter-getters in the primary will advance to the general election, which will be decided by ranked-choice voting.
Michigan adopts congressional map that pits two incumbent Democrats against each other --The redistricting commission for Michigan adopted new congressional districts on Tuesday, a move that will have a significant impact on next year's midterm elections. Democratic Reps. Andy Levin and Haley Stevens will both run in the same newly redrawn district. Other incumbents could also face one another, but some, including Rep. Debbie Dingell (D), plan to move districts to avoid such a battle. Dingell would otherwise potentially face Rep. Brenda Lawrence (D), The Detroit Free Press reported.Members of Congress do not have to live in the district that they represent, though most do reside in their districts to avoid an opponent's criticism in elections.Michigan currently has seven Democratic and seven Republican representatives in its congressional delegation. Eight of 13 randomly selected voters supported the new map, which places eight incumbents in the same districts and eliminates two majority Black districts, the Free Press added.
Taibbi: The Democrats' Education Lunacies Will Bring Back Trump - On Meet the Press Daily last week, Chuck Todd featured a small item about the 23 Democrats not planning on running for re-reelection to congress next year. “They only have a majority of five. It’s pretty tough to see how they hold on.” On the full Meet the Press Sunday, Todd in an ostensibly unrelated segment interviewed 1619 Project author and New York Times writer Nikole Hannah-Jones about Republican efforts in some states to ban teaching of her work. He detoured to ask about the Virginia governor’s race, which seemingly was decided on the question, “How influential should parents be about curriculum?” Given that Democrats lost Virginia after candidate Terry McAuliffe said, “I don’t think parents should be telling schools what to teach,” Todd asked her, “How do we do this?” Hannah-Jones’s first answer was to chide Todd for not remembering that Virginia was lost not because of whatever unimportant thing he’d just said, but because of a “right-wing propaganda campaign that told white parents to fight against their children being indoctrinated.” This was standard pundit fare that for the millionth time showed a national media figure ignoring, say, the objections of Asian immigrant parents to Virginia policies, but whatever: her next response was more notable. “I don’t really understand this idea that parents should decide what’s being taught,” Hannah-Jones said. “I’m not a professional educator. I don’t have a degree in social studies or science.” I’m against bills like the proposed Oklahoma measure that would ban the teaching of Jones’s work at all state-sponsored educational institutions. Still, it was pretty rich hearing the author of The 1619 Project say she lacked the expertise to teach, given that a) many historians agree with her there, yet b) she’s been advocating for schools to teach her dubious work to students all over the country. Even odder were her next comments, regarding McAuliffe’s infamous line about parents. About this, Hannah-Jones said: We send our kids to school because we went our kids to be taught by people with expertise in the subject area… When the governor, or the candidate, said he didn’t think parents should be deciding what’s being taught in school, he was panned for that, but that’s just a fact. In the wake of McAuliffe’s loss, the “I don’t think parents should be telling schools what to teach” line was universally tabbed a “gaffe” by media. I described it in the recent “Loudoun County: A Culture War in Four Acts” series in TK as the political equivalent of using a toe to shoot your face off with a shotgun, but this was actually behind the news cycle. Yahoo! said the “gaffe precipitated the Democrat’s slide in the polls,” while the Daily Beast’s blunter headline was, “Terry McAuliffe’s White-Guy Confidence Just Fucked the Dems.” However, much like the Hillary Clinton quote about “deplorables,” conventional wisdom after the “gaffe” soon hardened around the idea that what McAuliffe said wasn’t wrong at all. In fact, people like Hannah-Jones are now doubling down and applying to education the same formula that Democrats brought with disastrous results to a whole range of other issues in the Trump years, telling voters that they should get over themselves and learn to defer to “experts” and “expertise.”But parenting? For good reason, there’s no parent anywhere who believes that any “expert” knows what’s better for their kids than they do. Parents of course will rush to seek out a medical expert when a child is sick, or has a learning disability, or is depressed, or mired in a hundred other dilemmas. Even through these inevitable terrifying crises of child rearing, however, all parents are alike in being animated by the absolute certainty — and they’re virtually always right in this — that no one loves their children more than they do, or worries about them more, or agonizes even a fraction as much over how best to shepherd them to adulthood happy and in one piece.Implying the opposite is a political error of almost mathematically inexpressible enormity.
Ghislaine Maxwell Is Found Guilty of Aiding in Epstein’s Sex Abuse - Ghislaine Maxwell, the former companion to the disgraced financier Jeffrey Epstein, was convicted on Wednesday of conspiring with him for at least a decade to recruit, groom and sexually abuse underage girls. A federal jury in Manhattan found Ms. Maxwell, 60, the daughter of a British media mogul, guilty of sex trafficking and four of the five other charges against her. She was acquitted of one count of enticing a minor to travel across state lines to engage in an illegal sexual act. Ms. Maxwell’s trial was widely seen as the courtroom reckoning that Mr. Epstein never had. Mr. Epstein, who was arrested in July 2019 at the age of 66, killed himself in a Manhattan jail cell the following month, the medical examiner ruled, while awaiting his own trial on sex trafficking charges. Ms. Maxwell was arrested a year later. The verdict came late in the afternoon of the jury’s fifth full day of deliberations. After the jury sent a note saying it had reached a decision, Ms. Maxwell, wearing dark clothes and a dark-colored mask, was ushered into the courtroom and sat at the corner of the defense table. She poured water from a plastic bottle into a paper cup and took a sip. The jurors filed into the courtroom at 5:04 p.m., and Judge Alison J. Nathan read the verdict aloud: guilty on five of the six counts. Ms. Maxwell sat still through the reading of the verdict. She then touched her face and again poured water into a cup and drank. She leaned over to speak with one of her lawyers, who patted her on the back. After the jurors filed out of the courtroom, Ms. Maxwell stood, cast a brief glance in the direction of her siblings — two sisters and a brother who were seated in the first row of the spectator gallery — and was escorted quickly out of the courtroom, without speaking to her lawyers. In her trial, the government called four accusers — two used pseudonyms and one only a partial name — who testified that they had been served up to Mr. Epstein to be sexually abused. Ms. Maxwell was present for some of the abuse, according to the testimony, and played a role in enticing and grooming some of the victims.
Ghislaine Maxwell found guilty of sex-trafficking young girls for Jeffrey Epstein - After five days of deliberation, a jury in a New York City federal court found Ghislaine Maxwell guilty late Wednesday on five of six counts connected with the child sex-trafficking operations of the deceased billionaire Jeffrey Epstein. Maxwell, the 60-year-old daughter of British media mogul Robert Maxwell, was sitting at the corner of the defense table when the jurors entered the courtroom shortly after 5 p.m. and presented their decision to Judge Alison Nathan of the US District Court for the Southern District of New York. The judge read the verdict aloud: guilty of conspiracy to entice a minor to travel to engage in illegal sex acts, conspiracy to transport a minor with intent to engage in criminal sexual activity, transporting a minor with intent to engage in criminal sexual activity, conspiracy to commit sex trafficking of minors and sex trafficking of minors. The defendant was acquitted of the charge two of enticing a minor to travel across state lines to engage in an illegal sexual act. Counts one, three and five carry maximum sentences of five years each, count four a maximum of 10 years and count six—sex trafficking of minors—a maximum sentence of 40 years in prison. Judge Nathan has not yet determined a sentencing date. Maxwell pleaded not guilty to all charges after she was arrested and jailed in July 2020, 11 months after her former boyfriend Jeffrey Epstein was found dead in his jail cell under suspicious circumstances on August 10, 2019. Epstein—who had pleaded guilty to procuring for prostitution a girl below the age of 18 in 2008—had been arrested and charged a month before his death with sex trafficking and conspiracy to traffic minors. It was widely known within ruling-class circles for more than 20 years that the wealthy investment advisor Jeffrey Epstein was hosting social gatherings at his residences in New York City; Palm Beach, Florida; Paris; New Mexico and his private island in the Caribbean that included sex with underage girls. These events included all-expenses paid travel on Epstein’s private jet and attracted the participation of dozens of high-profile bourgeois figures such as former presidents Bill Clinton and Donald Trump, Robert F. Kennedy Jr., US Senator George Mitchell and Prince Andrew, all of whom have denied participating in the sexual abuse of minors. While the four-week trial and conviction of Maxwell is being reported as a reckoning by the criminal justice system with the monstrous abuse of underage girls by Jeffrey Epstein and his elite social circle, it has not revealed the full extent of the participation of others within the US and around the world in his sex ring.
British socialite Ghislaine Maxwell sentenced for sex trafficking -British socialite Ghislaine Maxwell was convicted on Wednesday in New York of recruiting and preparing young girls to be sexually assaulted by the late American financier Jeffrey Epstein. Maxwell risks spending the rest of her life behind bars after the 12-person jury convicted her of five of the six counts she faced, including the most serious charge of sex trafficking a minor. The conviction, just days after turning 60 at Christmas, crowns a remarkable fall from grace for the daughter of the late British press baron Robert Maxwell, who grew in wealth and privilege as a friend of royalty. She sat passively in the Manhattan courtroom, slowly removing her mask to take sips of water, after Judge Alison Nathan read the verdicts, handed down after five full days of jury deliberation. Subsequently, Maxwell’s attorney, Bobbi Sternheim, said his legal team was already working on an appeal and they were “confident it would be justified.” “We strongly believe in the innocence of Ghislaine. Obviously, we are very disappointed with the verdict,” Sternheim told reporters outside the courthouse. ALSO READ Africa Cup of Nations to go ahead as planned in Cameroon next month Sex trafficking of minors carries a maximum penalty of 40 years. The lowest charges last for five or ten years. Maxwell was found not guilty on one count – inducing a minor to travel to engage in unlawful sexual acts. Nathan addressed his “sincere thanks” to the jury for their service, adding that they had served “diligently”. Maxwell walked out of the courtroom into custody as she did each day of the month-long trial. She was not handcuffed and will return to the Metropolitan Detention Center in Brooklyn.
10 individuals increased their net worth by $500 billion in 2021 - The year 2021, for the second consecutive year, has been one of mass death and suffering for billions of workers around the world. The official global death toll from the COVID-19 pandemic, widely believed to be a massive underestimation, stands at 8.4 million for 2021. The World Bank estimates that 97 million people across the globe fell into poverty due to the pandemic in 2020, a figure that experts believe persisted in 2021. On Wednesday, the US alone recorded a world record of 484,377 daily new cases. In many states, hospitals are again being overwhelmed. Millions of workers and youth will look back on the year 2021 as one of immense struggle and grief. More than 1,000 families in the US will remember 2021 as the year they lost their child to the virus. Many will remember it as a year in which they could not pay rent or provide the basic necessities for their families. In fact, as we enter 2022, 5.7 million adult renters living with children are not caught up on rent as eviction moratoriums are being lifted in nearly every state. However, for all the incessant talk from media pundits and politicians that “we are all in this pandemic together,” life in the upper echelons of society in 2021 has been completely unrecognizable to the average worker. Pandemic profiteers rake in billions in 2021 For the world’s richest, life has never been better. Consider this astonishing fact: Billionaire wealth has increased steadily since 1990, but one-third of these wealth gains have occurred during the pandemic. At the end of November, the Paris-based Global Inequality Lab reported that about 2,750 billionaires control 3.5 percent of the world’s wealth, up from 1 percent in 1995, with the fastest gains coming since the pandemic hit. On the other hand, the poorest half of the planet’s population owns just about 2 percent of the world’s wealth. In 2021 alone, 10 individuals saw their net worth increase by $500 billion. Leading the pack is Tesla CEO Elon Musk, who this year became the world’s richest man. For a brief period this year, Musk’s net worth topped a staggering $300 billion. Overall this year, Musk added $121 billion to his net worth in 2021. Bernard Arnault, the CEO of luxury goods conglomerate LVMH (owner of brands such as Louis Vuitton, and Christian Dior) added $61 billion to his net worth this year. Arnault is the richest man in Europe. Google co-founder Larry Page added $47 billion to his fortune. Sergey Brin, Google’s other co-founder, grew his net worth by $45 billion, bringing it above $100 billion for the first time. Also joining the “$100 billion club” was Larry Ellison, who added $29 billion to his net worth. Former Microsoft CEO Steve Ballmer made a staggering $41 billion. One could go on. … These billionaires and multimillionaires spent 2021 traveling about in private jets, purchasing second and third mansions, and otherwise galivanting about the world (and in some cases out of this world) without a care. Two dozen “non-professionals” blasted off into space, for fun, in 2021 on rockets owned by billionaires Jeff Bezos, Elon Musk and Richard Branson.
My “Wealth Effect Monitor” & “Wealth Disparity Monitor” for the Fed’s Money-Printer Economy: December Update - Wolf Richter - My “Wealth Effect Monitor” uses the data that the Fed releases quarterly about the wealth of households. The Fed, after having released the overall data for the third quarter earlier in December, has now released the detailed data by wealth category for the “1%,” the “2% to 9%,” the “next 40%” (the top 10% to 50%) and the “bottom 50%.” Wealth here is defined as assets minus debts. The wealth of the 1% ($43.9 trillion, according to the Fed) is owned by 1% of the population. The wealth of the “bottom 50%” (only $3.4 trillion) gets split across half the population. My Wealth Effect Monitor takes this a step further and tracks the wealth of the average household in each category.The average wealth in the 1% category ticked up by only $121,000 in Q3 from Q2, after skyrocketing over the prior five quarters, to $34,478,000 per household (red line). In the bottom 50% category, the average wealth ticked up by $6,800 $53,600 (green line). And get this: About half of that “wealth” at the bottom 50% is the value of consumer durable goods such as cars, appliances, etc. Even the top 2% to 9% (yellow), have been totally left behind by the explosion of wealth at the 1%: Note the immense increase in the wealth for the 1% households, following the Fed’s money-printing scheme and interest rate repression in March 2020.A household is defined by the Census Bureau as the people living at one address, whether they’re a three-generation family or five roommates or a single person. In the third quarter, there were 127.4 million households in the US, per Census estimates.Those top 1% households were the primary beneficiaries of the Fed’s policies during the pandemic. And they have hugely benefited since the Financial Crisis. They benefit the most when the Fed prints money (QE), which is designed to inflate asset prices, which benefits those that hold the most assets the most. This is not a secret. It’s the official policy of the Fed and the desired outcome of these official policies is officially called the “Wealth Effect.”The Fed doesn’t provide separate data on the truly rich (the 0.01%) and the Billionaire Class, a distinct class in American society whose members often get named in the media with specific titles that have “billionaire” in them. They’re the prime beneficiaries of the Fed’s monetary policies.According to the Bloomberg Billionaires Index, the top 30 US billionaires are worth a total of $2.23 trillion. On average, that amounts to a wealth of $74.5 billion per billionaire among the top 30 richest US billionaires. Three months ago, each of the top 30 US billionaires at the time was worth on average $69.2 billion. So, over the three-month period, the average billionaire among the top 30 US billionaires each gained $5.3 billion in wealth. But the bottom 50% households, that huge mass of Americans, on average gained just $6,900 in wealth over the third quarter. And the wealth disparity between the top billionaires and the bottom 50% exploded. You can kill someone with reckless usage of percentages. If I give a homeless person $5, and he already has $5 in his pocket, I increased his wealth by 100%. But he still is homeless and still doesn’t have any wealth. Percentage increases are touted as a way to show that the wealth at the bottom increased, when in fact, it increased by only peanuts because the bottom 50% have so little and even a big percentage increase is still nearly nothing, compared to the billionaire class.Over the past quarter, the average wealth of the top 30 US billionaires increased by 7.6%, according to the Bloomberg Billionaire Index. This amounts to an increase of $5.3 billion per billionaire. This is a huge amount of money for one person to gain due to inflated asset prices in one quarter. My “Wealth Disparity Monitor” (chart below) tracks that economic injustice by showing the difference in wealth between the top 1% and the bottom 50%, using the Fed’s own data, on a per household basis.
The Fed Is About to Reveal Which Wall Street Banks Needed $4.5 Trillion in Repo Loans in Q4 2019 - By Pam Martens - The conventional wisdom is that the Fed’s recent emergency lending facilities to Wall Street were caused by the COVID-19 crisis. The above chart, which uses the New York Fed’s own Excel spreadsheet repo loan data, shows the conventional wisdom is dangerously wrong.In the last quarter of 2019 – before there was any news of COVID-19 in the U.S., and months before the World Health Organization declared COVID-19 a pandemic – the Fed pumped $4.5 trillion in cumulative repo loans to unnamed trading houses on Wall Street – its so-called “primary dealers.”The collateral that the Fed accepted for the cumulative $4.5 trillion in loans consisted of $3.497 trillion in U.S. Treasury securities; $988.3 billion in agency Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS); and $15.839 billion in agency debt.The Fed’s emergency repo loan operations began on September 17, 2019. From September 17, 2019 through the last acknowledged operation on July 2, 2020, the Fed’s repo loans cumulatively totaled $11.23 trillion, made up of the following pledged collateral: $7.137 trillion in U.S. Treasury securities; $4 trillion in agency Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS) and $91.525 billion in agency debt.Just how fragile were Wall Street’s trading houses at that time that they needed to continuously roll over loans from the Fed – some on an overnight basis, others for weeks at a time? A quick gauge of the depth of the crisis in the last four months of 2019 is to compare the total of repo loans made in the 2008 financial crisis to those made in 2019. We’ve provided the chart at the top of this article for a quick snapshot.The 2008 financial crisis was the worst in the United States since the Great Depression. Century-old Wall Street financial institutions were collapsing like a house of cards. And yet, the Fed only funneled a total of $3.144 trillion in repo loans to its primary dealers from January 2 through December 30, 2008. Instead, the Fed decided to set up an alphabet soup list of emergency bailout facilities through which it secretlyissued $29 trillion in cumulative loans from December 2007 to July 2010.The Fed rolled out many of those same 2008 emergency bailout facilities beginning in March of 2020 after the World Health Organization declared a pandemic on March 11.Looking at the chart above and now having the precise tally of the $11.23 trillion in cumulative repo loans the Fed made from September 17, 2019 through July 2, 2020, it now appears that the bulk of the emergency repo loans were a stand-in operation until the Fed could roll out its full ensemble of emergency lending programs, which it carefully characterized as “in response to COVID-19.”So the question is, if the pandemic was officially declared on March 11, 2020 and the first case of COVID-19 in the U.S. was confirmed by the CDC on January 20, 2020 – what caused the financial emergency on Wall Street in the fall of 2019 that required trillions of dollars in repo loan bailouts from the Fed?The Fed has failed to provide any credible answers to that question. At first, the Fed suggested that corporate tax payments were drained from the system causing a liquidity crunch. But look carefully at the chart above. Corporations were making those same tax payments from 2009 through 2018 without causing a financial crisis or the need for trillions of dollars in emergency repo loans from the Fed.
By Pancaking Term Loans, JPMorgan Had $30 Billion Outstanding from the Fed’s Emergency Repo Loans in the Last Quarter of 2019 By Pam Martens - Jamie Dimon, Chairman and CEO of JPMorgan Chase, likes to perpetually brag about his bank’s “fortress balance sheet.” But in the fall of 2019, that fortress needed to borrow huge sums of money from the Federal Reserve – for still unexplained reasons. The trading units of other Wall Street banks also borrowed large sums from the Fed but they haven’t branded themselves as the “fortress balance sheet.”Yesterday, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York released the names of the banks and the dollar amounts that were borrowed under its emergency repo loan operations for the last quarter of 2019. It had previously released the data for the period of September 17, 2019 through September 30, 2019. The Fed has yet to release the data for the emergency repo loan operations in 2020.Repo loans, short for repurchase agreements, are supposed to be overnight loans. Corporations, banks, securities firms and money market mutual funds typically secure these loans from each other by providing safe forms of collateral such as Treasury securities. The repo loan market is supposed to function without the assistance of the Federal Reserve. The Fed’s emergency repo loans that began on September 17, 2019 (months before there was a COVID-19 case reported anywhere in the world) was the first such repo intervention by the Fed since the financial crisis of 2008. The Fed has yet to provide a credible explanation for why its emergency operations were needed.The Fed’s emergency repo operations began as overnight loans. But then the Fed began regularly offering 14-day term loans in addition to the overnight loans. Then it began to add even longer term loans. Just 24 trading houses on Wall Street (what the Fed calls its “primary dealers”) were eligible for these loans. A handful of firms took the lion’s share. Until now, neither the public nor the participating banks knew who was under the most severe funding stresses that they had to borrow from the Fed for months on end. This is an example of how the trading unit of JPMorgan Chase, J.P. Morgan Securities, pancaked these term loans from the Fed to amass a $30 billion outstanding loan from the Fed:
- On November 12, the Fed offered a 14-day term loan that would expire on November 26. J.P. Morgan Securities took three separate lots totaling $7 billion.
- On November 14, the Fed offered a 13-day term loan that would expire on November 27. J.P. Morgan Securities took $5 billion of that.
- On November 19, the Fed offered a 14-day term loan expiring on December 3. J.P. Morgan Securities took $4 billion of that.
- On November 21, the Fed offered another 14-day term loan expiring on December 5. J.P. Morgan Securities took two lots totaling $5 billion.
- On November 25, the Fed offered its first 42-day term loan expiring on January 6. The loan settled on same-day terms. J.P. Morgan Securities took two lots totaling $4 billion.
At this point in time, the November 12 loan, set to expire on November 26, had not come due so J.P. Morgan Securities had $25 billion in term loans with the Fed and also had $5 billion in overnight loans maturing the next day for a total of $30 billion outstanding. And on and on it went.
Deutsche Bank fined $9.8 million by BaFin for control lapses - Germany’s finance watchdog fined Deutsche Bank 8.66 million euros ($9.8 million) over its handling of submissions for Euribor, a reference rate at the heart of a scandal that rocked the industry. The lender temporarily didn’t have effective systems and controls for contributions to the benchmark, BaFin said in a statement. While BaFin said Deutsche Bank has a right to appeal, the company said it accepts the fine to create “legal certainty.” More than a decade after the financial crisis revealed rampant misconduct and deficient controls, banks are still working through remediation measures and regulatory investigations. While comparatively small, the BaFin fine suggests that Deutsche Bank hasn’t fully delivered on pledges it made after facing the industry’s highest penalties in the Libor benchmark-rigging scandal.
Community banks push back against return of stricter capital requirements - Federal banking regulators’ decision to resume a 9% community bank leverage ratio in 2022 has triggered a forceful pushback from industry advocates, who are throwing their weight behind legislation that would fix the ratio between 8% and 8.5% through 2024. Rep. Tracey Mann, R-Kan., introduced the Community Bank Relief Act on Dec. 7 to fix the ratio at its lower range. While the bill is still in the early stages of consideration and couldn't possibly become law before the end of the year, banking industry advocates are hopeful that its existence will prompt regulators to reverse course on their own. “We’re hoping they’ll have second thoughts,” said Chris Cole, executive vice president and senior regulatory counsel at the Independent Community Bankers of America. Otherwise, community banks might feel forced to slow lending and actually shrink their balance sheets to comply with the new, higher capital requirement, Cole said.
McWilliams to resign as FDIC chief in sudden end to power struggle — Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. Chair Jelena McWilliams announced she will resign early next year, a decision that comes just weeks after a partisan struggle on the agency's board threatened her leadership. In a letter to President Biden, McWilliams said her departure will be effective Feb. 4. Her resignation means former FDIC Chair Martin Gruenberg, now an internal member of the agency's board, will likely lead the agency on an acting basis until the Biden administration nominates a successor. It will be his third time at the helm of the FDIC. McWilliams, an appointee of former President Donald Trump, told Biden that it has been “a tremendous honor to serve this nation.”
Credit union regulator gives preliminary go-ahead on crypto partnerships - Credit unions have received their first green light from the National Credit Union Administration to partner with crypto firms to help members to manage digital assets.Many credit unions were hesitant to delve into the cryptocurrency market amidst concerns of regulatory backlash from the NCUA. The agency offered clarity this month to address concerns voiced by many in the credit union industry."The NCUA does not prohibit federally insured credit unions from partnering with third-party providers of digital asset services that leverage evolving technologies,” Todd Harper, chairman of the NCUA, said in a letter to the industry.
N.Y. lender to taxi drivers sees shares slide after SEC sues - Shares of Medallion Financial plunged Wednesday after U.S. regulators accused the New York-based lender to taxi drivers of seeking to illegally boost its stock price amid intense competition from Uber Technologies and Lyft. The Securities and Exchange Commission alleged that after a string of banner years, Medallion floundered as the popularity of ride-sharing apps caused the value of taxi medallions, which were used as collateral for loans, to plummet. As the company’s stock slumped since 2013, it tried to drown out short-sellers by flooding media websites with bogus news articles, the SEC said in a complaint filed in federal court. Fotolia Medallion shares were halted Wednesday after the stock slid more than 50% to $3.94. They then resumed trading, paring losses to about 28% as of 11:51 am in New York.
These Are the Plunging Charts that the New York Stock Exchange Hopes You Won’t See --- By Pam & Russ Martens - We want to go on the record, here and now, that the past scandals of the New York Stock Exchange are going to look like minor hiccups when the history of the current New York Stock Exchange era is written. The listing standards for companies that the New York Stock Exchange allows to trade under its imprimatur is the worst in its history.Let’s start with the case of QuantumScape, which trades on the New York Stock Exchange under the ticker, QS. On April 15, the hedge fund Scorpion Capital, which has a short position in shares of QuantumScape and stands to profit from its decline, released a breathtaking 188-page report in which it called the company a “fraud,” a “scam,” an “impending pump and dump,” and wrote that it “Makes Theranos Look Like Amateurs.” (Theranos claimed it had created a technology that would revolutionize the blood-testing industry. It was eventually exposed as a fraud. But Theranos was not a publicly-traded company listed on the New York Stock Exchange, enticing potentially thousands of average moms and pops to invest in its shares. It was a private company wooing well-heeled investors.)QuantumScape is a battery developer for electric vehicles. It began trading on the New York Stock Exchange on November 27, 2020. At the time, it had no commercial product and zero revenues.The report from Scorpion Capital sums up its analysis of the company like this:“The company claims to have a ‘magic material’ that’s led to a breakthrough solid-state battery for electric vehicles. Even amidst the current mania of retail gambling on vaporous SPAC promotions, QS stands out for its reckless, nosebleed valuation of $15B – or roughly ~ $80MM per employee, a mere 188 per LinkedIn. QuantumScape, across its investor materials, has only released about 7 key ‘data’ slides with a few scraps of information. This leads us to pen a new valuation metric – ‘Market Cap per Powerpoint Slide’ – in this case, about $2B for each tantalizing crumb.”QuantumScape responded to Scorpion Capital’s allegations in a Twitter post, stating that it “stands by its data, which speaks for itself. We have provided higher transparency than any other solid-state battery effort we are aware of, with details on current density, temp, cycle life, cathode thickness, depth of discharge, cell area, pressure.”Yesterday, we contacted QuantumScape via email and asked if it had filed a libel lawsuit in court against Scorpion Capital. We didn’t receive an answer. We then contacted Scorpion Capital and asked the same question. We received a prompt response from Kir Kahlon, Scorpion Capital founder and Chief Investment Officer, who has an MBA from Harvard Business School. Kahlon told us this: “We are not aware of any court actions ever filed against us after a report.”Let this all sink in for a moment: a 188-page report is released to the public calling your New York Stock Exchange-listed company a “fraud,” and eight months go by and you haven’t challenged that report in a court of law.Below is the stock chart of QuantumScape since going public in November of 2020. If we were to draw a chart of a hypothetical pump and dump scheme, this is what our chart would look like.
Fannie Mae: Mortgage Serious Delinquency Rate Decreased in November --Fannie Mae reported that the Single-Family Serious Delinquency decreased to 1.46% in November, from 1.33% in October. The serious delinquency rate is down from 2.96% in November 2020. These are mortgage loans that are "three monthly payments or more past due or in foreclosure".The Fannie Mae serious delinquency rate peaked in February 2010 at 5.59% following the housing bubble and peaked at 3.32% in August 2020 during the pandemic. By vintage, for loans made in 2004 or earlier (1% of portfolio), 3.61% are seriously delinquent (down from 4.02% in October). For loans made in 2005 through 2008 (2% of portfolio), 6.05% are seriously delinquent (down from 6.90%), For recent loans, originated in 2009 through 2021 (97% of portfolio), 1.08% are seriously delinquent (down from 1.17%). So, Fannie is still working through a few poor performing loans from the bubble years.Mortgages in forbearance are counted as delinquent in this monthly report, but they will not be reported to the credit bureaus.This is very different from the increase in delinquencies following the housing bubble. Lending standards have been fairly solid over the last decade, and most of these homeowners have equity in their homes - and they will be able to restructure their loans once they are employed.
FHFA House Price Index: Up 1.1% in October, Another All Time High - The Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) has released its U.S. House Price Index (HPI) for October. Here is the opening of the press release: House prices rose nationwide in October, up 1.1 percent from the previous month, according to the latest Federal Housing Finance Agency House Price Index (FHFA HPI®). House prices rose 17.4 percent from October 2020 to October 2021. The previously reported 0.9 percent price change for September 2021 remained unchanged.For the nine census divisions, seasonally adjusted monthly house price changes from September 2021 to October 2021 ranged from -0.3 percent in the New England division to +1.7 percent in the East South Central division. The 12-month changes ranged from +13.2 percent in the West North Central division to +23.2 percent in the Mountain division.“House price levels continue to rise but the rapid pace is curtailing through October,” said Will Doerner, Ph.D., Supervisory Economist in FHFA’s Division of Research and Statistics. “The large market appreciations seen this spring peaked in July and have been cooling this fall with annual trends slowing over the last four consecutive months.” The chart below illustrates the monthly HPI series, which is not adjusted for inflation, along with a real (inflation-adjusted) series using the Consumer Price Index: All Items Less Shelter.
Case-Shiller: National House Price Index increased 19.1% year-over-year in October - S&P/Case-Shiller released the monthly Home Price Indices for October ("October" is a 3-month average of August, September and October prices). This release includes prices for 20 individual cities, two composite indices (for 10 cities and 20 cities) and the monthly National index. From S&P: S&P Corelogic Case-Shiller Index Reports 19.1% Annual Home Price Gain in OctoberThe S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, covering all nine U.S. census divisions, reported a 19.1% annual gain in October, down from 19.7% in the previous month. The 10- City Composite annual increase came in at 17.1%, down from 17.9% in the previous month. The 20- City Composite posted an 18.4% year-over-year gain, down from 19.1% in the previous month. Phoenix, Tampa, and Miami reported the highest year-over-year gains among the 20 cities in October. Phoenix led the way with a 32.3% year-over-year price increase, followed by Tampa with a 28.1% increase and Miami with a 25.7% increase. Six of the 20 cities reported higher price increases in the year ending October 2021 versus the year ending September 2021. ... Before seasonal adjustment, the U.S. National Index posted a 0.8% month-over-month increase in October, while the 10-City and 20-City Composites both posted increases of 0.8%. After seasonal adjustment, the U.S. National Index posted a month-over-month increase of 1.0%, and the 10-City and 20-City Composites posted increases of 0.8% and 0.9%, respectively. In October, 18 of the 20 cities reported increases before seasonal adjustments while all 20 cities reported increases after seasonal adjustments ““In October 2021, U.S. home prices moved substantially higher, but at a decelerating rate,” says Craig J. Lazzara, Managing Director at S&P DJI. “The National Composite Index rose 19.1% from year-ago levels, and the 10- and 20-City Composites gained 17.1% and 18.4%, respectively. In all three cases, October’s gains were below September’s, and September’s gains were below August’s. That said, October’s 19.1% gain in the National Composite is the fourth-highest reading in the 34 years covered by our data. (The top three were the three months immediately preceding October.)” The first graph shows the nominal seasonally adjusted Composite 10, Composite 20 and National indices (the Composite 20 was started in January 2000). The National index is 48% above the bubble peak (SA), and up 1.0% (SA) in October. The National index is up 100% from the post-bubble low set in February 2012 (SA). The second graph shows the year-over-year change in all three indices. The Composite 10 SA is up 17.1% year-over-year. The Composite 20 SA is up 18.4% year-over-year. The National index SA is up 19.1% year-over-year. Price increases were close to expectations.
US Home Price Gains Slowed For 3rd Straight Month In October -- Having peaked in July, home prices in America's 20 largest cities continue to decelerate in October (the latest data available from S&P Case-Shiller), rising 'only' 18.41% YoY (vs 18.5% expected), slowing from the +19.09% YoY in September. That is the 3rd straight monthly slowdown in price gains. Bear in mind that is still faster acceleration than the peak of the last housing bubble. "U.S. home prices moved substantially higher, but at a decelerating rate," Craig J. Lazzara, managing director at S&P Dow Jones Indices, said in statement. "October’s gains were below September’s, and September’s gains were below August’s. That said, October’s 19.1% gain in the National Composite is the fourth-highest reading in the 34 years covered by our data."Phoenix, Tampa, Miami reported highest year-over-year gains among 20 cities surveyed. It would appear, even before The Fed started tapering and shifted to its hawkish rate stance, that house price appreciation has peaked.
Comments on Case-Shiller and FHFA House Price Increases --Today, in the CalculatedRisk Real Estate Newsletter: Case-Shiller National Index up 19.1% Year-over-year in October. Excerpt: Both the Case-Shiller House Price Index (HPI) and the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) HPI for October were released today. Here is a graph of the month-over-month (MoM) change in the Case-Shiller National Index Seasonally Adjusted (SA). The MoM increase in Case-Shiller was at 1.03%; still historically high, but lower than the previous 14 months. House prices started increasing sharply in the Case-Shiller index in August 2020, so the last 15 months have all been historically very strong, but the peak MoM growth is behind us - and the year-over-price growth is starting to decelerate. ... We are seeing theexpected deceleration in house price growth, and this trend will probably continue for at least a few more months (more on this tomorrow). My sense is the Case-Shiller National annual growth rate of 19.99% in August was probably the peak YoY growth rate, however, since the normal level of inventory is probably in the 4 to 6 months range - we’d have to see a significant increase in inventory to sharply slow price increases, and that is why I’m focused on inventory!
NAR: Pending Home Sales Decreased 2.2% in November From the NAR: Pending Home Sales Subside 2.2% in November Pending home sales slipped in November, receding slightly after a previous month of gains, according to the National Association of Realtors®. Each of the four major U.S. regions witnessed contract transactions decline month-over-month. Year-over-year activity mostly retreated too, as three regions reported drops and only the Midwest saw an increase.The Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI), a forward-looking indicator of home sales based on contract signings, fell 2.2.% to 122.4 in November. Year-over-year, signings slid 2.7%. An index of 100 is equal to the level of contract activity in 2001....Month-over-month, the Northeast PHSI declined 0.1% to 99.4 in November, an 8.5% drop from a year ago. In the Midwest, the index fell 6.3% to 116.8 last month, up 0.2% from November 2020.Pending home sales transactions in the South ticked down 0.7% to an index of 148.2 in November, down 1.3% from November 2020. The index in the West slipped 2.2% in November to 105.5, down 4.6% from a year prior.This was well below expectations of a 0.6% increase for this index. Note: Contract signings usually lead sales by about 45 to 60 days, so this would usually be for closed sales in December and January.
Inventories of New Houses for Sale Highest since 2008, Worst Spike in Construction Costs in at Least 50 Years: What the Heck Is Going On? -- Wolf Richter - The index for construction costs of singled-family houses spiked 15.3% in November compared to a year ago, the worst year-over-year spike in the data going back to 1970, and by 21.1% compared to November two years ago, according to data by the Commerce Department on Thursday. This excludes the cost of land and other non-construction costs: Builders are complaining about all kinds of shortages, including windows, while window makers complain about labor and materials shortages. Lead times are stretching into eternity by the measure of single-family housing construction projects that then get bogged down. There is enough demand to allow builders to pass on those cost increases to buyers: The median price of single-family houses sold in November spiked 18.8% year-over-year and by 27.1% from two years ago to $416,900. That means, half the homes sold for over $416,900 and half sold for less. The bottom has fallen out at the lower end with nearly no houses sold below $200,000. Only 13% of the houses sold below $300,000. But 57% of the houses went for over $400,000. The median price is skewed by this shift in mix to the high end, because that’s where the money is, and by the death of the low end: Inventory of single-family houses for sale at all stages of construction combined – more on those stages in a moment – has been persistently rising for months and hit the highest level since August 2008: The number of completed single-family houses for sale – which means they have to have windows among other things – has been straggling along below 40,000 (seasonally adjusted) all year, a historically low range in the data going back to 1999, and setting several new record lows along the way. In November, 39,000 completed houses were for sale (red line in the chart below). But the number of houses for sale where construction hasn’t started yet hit 110,000 in November, the highest in the data going back to 1999 (purple line). And the number of houses for sale that were still under construction rose to 253,000 in November, the highest since 2007 (green line). Every month since May, completed houses for sale have accounted for less than 10% of total inventory for sale, which hasn’t happened since at least the early 1970s. The pre-pandemic low was 20% of total inventory, in May 2018. There are few completed houses for sale as delays of all kinds see to it that builders are having a rough time completing construction. And as they’re trying to complete construction or shortly after they complete construction, the houses are sold and don’t linger in inventory: Total sales of new single-family houses in November, all stages of construction combined, fell 14% from a year ago, to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 744,000 houses, having unwound the entire pandemic spike. Sales also remain far lower than during the boom years of 2002 through 2006 (this does not include apartment and condo buildings). Sales of completed houses – where inventories have collapsed – have been hobbling along near the levels during the housing bust and in November dropped to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 164,000 (red line in the chart below), as there wasn’t a whole lot to sell. And at 22% of total sales in November, their share hit lows not seen since 2005. Sales of houses under construction jumped to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 359,000 houses in November (green line), and has been running high ever since April last year. This was driven in part by the shortage of completed houses – and more buyers ended up buying a house that was still under construction. The share of sales of houses under construction surged to 48% of total sales in November, along with August and June, the highest in the data going back to 1999 Sales of houses where construction hasn’t started yet – when a homebuilder will build it after the buyer commits to buying it – rose to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 221,000 houses (purple line), for a share of total sales of 30%, which is roughly in line with pre-pandemic years since 2012, but is down from the peak months during the pandemic: -What we’re seeing here are large-scale distortions across the spectrum, from spikes in construction costs and shortages of all kinds, long lead times, and the inability to complete construction in a speedy manner, which leads to the huge build-up of inventory of unfinished houses for sale, while completed houses for sale have become scarce.
Inside Amazon's secretive real-estate arm, which has built the retailer's behemoth footprint over 22 years and whose decisions make or break entire neighborhoods - In the spring, the real-estate developer Joel Bergstein received an inquiry for the warehouse his firm is building in the New Jersey Meadowlands, where marshy fields are lined with massive hangars that hold many of the goods that New York City residents order online and expect at their doors within hours. The call came from KBC Advisors. Bergstein was thrilled — and didn't even need to ask who the tenant was. KBC, a Seattle-based real-estate services company that is little known outside of industry circles, is in charge of dealmaking for the nearly $2 trillion tech giant Amazon. The small firm has become synonymous with the goliath retailer, which inspires awe in the warehouse business. "I don't think I'd be very good at my job if I didn't understand who KBC was," Bergstein said. In June, KBC arranged for Amazon to take all of Bergstein's 360,000-square-foot warehouse project, Highland Cross, which is now under construction. The property is expected to be finished by the end of 2022. "For us," Bergstein said, "it was a home run to land a tenant like Amazon." Facilities like Highland Cross are the backbone behind Amazon's business, serving as the spaces where it stores, sorts, and ships billions of products to consumers around the country every year. That logistics network became even more essential during the pandemic, when much of America turned to online shopping for everything from rapid COVID-19 test kits and laundry detergent to television sets and groceries. Now the nation's largest online retailer, Amazon occupies a portfolio of about 340 million square feet of warehouses across the US, according to the logistics-data provider MWPVL International. That's the equivalent of about 6,000 football fields. MWPVL calculates the company is in the process of establishing an additional 130 million square feet. That space will make Amazon almost as large as the warehouse portfolios of its retail and logistics rivals Walmart, Target, UPS, and FedEx combined, according to MWPVL. KBC, which was founded by the longtime warehouse-leasing executives John Hanson and Todd Meldahl, has helped Amazon find and negotiate the lease terms for nearly all of it. It's a role that has given the firm an unseen hand in the prosperity of regions of the country where Amazon facilities and the jobs they bring can either spell growth or infuriate locals who find the company's presence disruptive. By association, it has made KBC one of the most powerful — and least known — real-estate firms in the nation.
Apple closes swath of retail stores in New York amid city's COVID-19 surge -Apple has closed 16 of its stores in New York as the city sees a significant uptick in COVID-19 infections. During the temporary closures, customers will be permitted to place online orders and pick up their items in stores, according to Bloomberg. In addition to closures in New York, Apple has also shut down stores in Los Angeles, Washington, D.C., Ohio, Texas, Georgia and Florida, the outlet added. The closures come as the highly contagious omicron variant has swept across the country, including its significant impact on New York, which was also a hotspot in the early weeks of the pandemic. As of Monday, New York City had a seven-day average of 14,025 daily cases, compared to its 28-day average of 6,786, data from New York City's government showed. Earlier this month, Apple also announced that it would not reopen its offices in February as the company had initially planned. “We regularly monitor conditions and we will adjust our health measures to support the wellbeing of customers and employees,“ Apple said in a statement at the time. Hillicon Valley — Cybersecurity's breakout year De Blasio announces NYC schools will open as planned after holiday... ”We remain committed to a comprehensive approach for our teams that combines regular testing with daily health checks, employee and customer masking, deep cleaning and paid sick leave,” the company added.
Las Vegas Visitor Authority for November: Visitor Traffic Down 11.3% Compared to 2019 -- From the Las Vegas Visitor Authority: November 2021 Las Vegas Visitor Statistics: With traditional seasonal decreases after seeing annual peaks in October, November visitation exceeded 3.1M visitors (down ‐8.2% MoM and down ‐11.3% vs. Nov 2019.)Overall hotel occupancy reached 77.6% for the month (‐4.0 pts MoM) as weekends saw continued strong levels at 90.7% (+0.3 pts MoM) while midweek occupancy ebbed MoM to 71.9% from 77.5% in October.November room rates approached $156, surpassing Nov 2019 levels by 15.5%, while RevPAR reached $121, up 1.7% vs. Nov 2019.This graph shows visitor traffic for 2019 (blue), 2020 (orange) and 2021 (red).Visitor traffic was down 11.3% compared to the same month in 2019. There was no convention traffic from March 2020 until June 2021 (data still N/A). I'll add a graph of convention traffic once convention data is available.
Stimulus for the Rest of the World: Imports Spike, Trade Deficit in Goods Worsens Relentlessly - In the US, stimulating demand for goods means stimulating demand for imports, and thereby stimulating production in the rest of the world. Imports are a drag on GDP. Exports boost GDP, but growth in exports fell woefully short of the spike in imports, and the US trade deficits in goods worsened to the worst level ever.US imports of goods in November spiked by $40.5 billion, or 19.1% year-over-year to a new record worst of $252 billion, seasonally adjusted, according to the advance estimate by the Census Bureau today. The relentless three-decade trend was brought about by Corporate America – manufacturers, distribution channels, and retailers that have been encouraged to offshore everything to cheaper countries – according to the religion of globalization: Note the rapid deterioration since 2019, powered by the fiscal and monetary stimulus that kicked in after the March and April 2020 slow-down. When American businesses and consumers buy goods, they buy much of it from other countries.The only major category of goods where imports improved – meaning, imports declined – were automotive vehicles and components, and they improved for the wrong reasons. The semiconductor shortages hit production not only in the US, but also assembly plants in Japan, Mexico, Canada, and Europe.But the chip shortages have started to abate in recent month, depending on the automaker, and production overall has picked up some: Auto imports in November, at $28.5 billion, were 10% from two months ago (September).The table shows imports by major category in November, in billion dollars, compared to November 2020, and the year-over-year percentage change.Exports of goods in November rose by $28 billion, or 22.2%, to $154.7 billion, seasonally adjusted.The increase in exports was primarily driven by the 37% surge in exports of industrial supplies, which include petroleum and petroleum products, to $56.7 billion, by far the largest category of exports, accounting for 36.7% of total exports.The vaunted exports of agricultural goods are in the category of Foods, Feeds, and Beverages, which accounts for only 9.5% of total exports.The table shows exports by major category in November, in billion dollars, compared to November 2020, and the year-over-year percentage change. This $28 billion year-over-year increase in exports of goods in November wasn’t nearly enough to counterbalance the $40.5 billion deterioration in imports. As a result, the trade deficit in goods deteriorated to a new worst record of $97.8 billion:
December Dallas Fed Manufacturing: Expansion Continues - The Dallas Fed has released its Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey for December. The latest general business activity index came in at 8.1, down 3.7 from November. All figures are seasonally adjusted.Here is an excerpt from the latest report: Texas factory activity increased at an above-average pace in December, according to business executives responding to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey. The production index, a key measure of state manufacturing conditions, held fairly steady at 26.7, a reading indicative of solid output growth. Expectations regarding future manufacturing activity remained positive but less so in December than in November. The future production index fell to 40.6 from 51.7, and the future general business activity index dropped 15 points to 14.0. Other measures of future manufacturing activity such as capital expenditures and employment showed mixed movements but remained solidly in positive territory. Monthly data for this indicator only dates back to 2004, so it is difficult to see the full potential of this indicator without several business cycles of data. Nevertheless, it is an interesting and important regional manufacturing indicator.
Richmond Fed Manufacturing: Activity Strengthened in December - Fifth District manufacturing activity grew in December, according to the most recent survey from the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond. The composite index rose from 12 in November to 16 in December and indicates expansion. The complete data series behind today's Richmond Fed manufacturing report, which dates from November 1993, is available here. Here is a snapshot of the complete Richmond Fed Manufacturing Composite series. Here is an excerpt from the latest Richmond Fed manufacturing overview: Fifth District manufacturing activity strengthened in December, according to the most recent survey from the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond. The composite index rose from 12 in November to 16 in December, driven by increases in shipments and new orders. The third component in the composite index, employment, moderated but remained in expansionary territory. Backlogs of new orders registered their second highest index value on record, as vendor lead times remained high and inventories remained low. Meanwhile, manufacturers reported continued investment spending. Link to Report Here is a somewhat closer look at the index since the turn of the century.
December Regional Fed Manufacturing Overview -- Five out of the twelve Federal Reserve Regional Districts currently publish monthly data on regional manufacturing: Dallas, Kansas City, New York, Richmond, and Philadelphia. Regional manufacturing surveys are a measure of local economic health and are used as a representative for the larger national manufacturing health. They have been used as a signal for business uncertainty and economic activity as a whole. Manufacturing makes up 12% of the country's GDP. The other 6 Federal Reserve Districts do not publish manufacturing data. For these, the Federal Reserve’s Beige Book offers a short summary of each districts’ manufacturing health. The Chicago Fed published their Midwest Manufacturing Index from July 1996 through December of 2013. According to their website, "The Chicago Fed Midwest Manufacturing Index (CFMMI) is undergoing a process of data and methodology revision. In December 2013, the monthly release of the CFMMI was suspended pending the release of updated benchmark data from the U.S. Census Bureau and a period of model verification. Significant revisions in the history of the CFMMI are anticipated." Five out of the twelve Federal Reserve Regional Districts currently publish monthly data on regional manufacturing: Dallas, Kansas City, New York, Richmond, and Philadelphia. The latest average of the five for December is 19, down from the previous month. Here is the same chart including the average of the five. Readers will notice the range in expansion and contraction between all regions. For comparison, here is the latest ISM Manufacturing survey.
Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Decrease to 198,000
More workers died of COVID-19 at one Michigan auto plant than all of China in 2021 - Xavier Anderson, a worker at Stellantis’ Sterling Stamping Plant north of Detroit, died recently, according to a Facebook post by United Auto Workers Local 1264. While the cause of death was not made public, one worker confirmed to the World Socialist Web Site that Anderson died of COVID-19. The confirmed COVID-19 death toll during 2021 inside the plant now stands at five. Two other workers, Kevin Railey and Omie Smith, died earlier this month, Blair Alexander Braden in October, and skilled tradesman Mark Bruce in April. A sixth worker, Terry Garr, also died in April from an accident in the plant. COVID-19 cases at Sterling Stamping are continuing to rise. Thirty-five infections have been confirmed in December, close to November’s record high of 42 infections. These two months have by far the highest reported infections at the plant during the pandemic and account for more than 40 percent of total confirmed cases. This is all the more significant given that the plant has been working with a reduced workforce for much of the fall and winter. Over 830,000 Americans have died during the coronavirus pandemic. Worldwide, the real death toll is estimated to be over 15 million. But those who died were not statistics to those who knew them but family members, friends and coworkers whose lives were tragically cut short. This is the human cost of the disastrous pandemic policies carried out by capitalist governments in the United States and around the world, whose refusal to close down workplaces and schools or implement other critical publish health measures have allowed the virus to engulf much of the world’s population.
Airlines canceled more than 2,000 flights on Monday as rising Omicron cases wreak havoc on the travel industry -After thousands of cancellations over the holiday weekend, airlines continued to slash flights on Monday amid rising cases of the Omicron coronavirus variant and bad winter weather.As of Monday afternoon, 2,831 flights set to depart had been canceled, according to figures from the flight-tracking website FlightAware.Of these cancellations, 1,148 were flights within, into, or out of the US, according to FlightAware data.American Airlines canceled 86 flights, or 3% of its total flights for the day, and United Airlines canceled 95 flights, or 4% of its flights, according to FlightAware data.Alaska Airlines canceled 144 flights scheduled for Monday, or 21% of its flights, and JetBlue canceled 66 flights, or 6% of its schedule.Delta canceled 88 flights, Spirit canceled 71, and Horizon canceled 39.And SkyWest, which is contracted for some regional flights by Alaska, American, Delta, and United, canceled 307 flights on Monday, or about 12% of its scheduled flights.The bulk of Monday's canceled flights were operated by Chinese airlines, including China Eastern, which canceled 423 flights, and Air China, which canceled 198 flights. Elsewhere, the Indonesian airline Lion Air canceled 113 flights.Monday's travel chaos came after airlines canceled about 3,300 flights on Sunday, with almost half of these departing from or arriving in the US, according to FlightAware data.A Delta spokesperson said that the airline had canceled 748 flights between Friday and Sunday, including 161 of its 4,155 mainline and connection flights scheduled for Sunday and that staff were working to reroute and substitute aircraft and crews to get customers where they needed to be "as quickly and safely as possible."Hong Kong has suspended some flights by Korean Air, Cathay Pacific, Emirates, and Qatar Airways from locations including London, New York, and Dubai, United Arab Emirates. Hong Kong said on Saturday that some arrivals had tested positive for the virus. Some US airlines have attributed their cancellations to staff members who have caught or been exposed to the coronavirus.An American Airlines spokesperson directed Insider to a statement from Saturday, which said the airline had precanceled some flights because of "a number of COVID-related sick calls" and notified passengers the day before. A SkyWest spokesperson said cases of the coronavirus among staff had risen, and the Delta spokesperson said the Omicron variant had impacted its schedule.A United spokesperson told The Associated Press that Omicron's influence on staffing was unexpected and that it was unclear when operations would return to normal. Coronavirus cases among the airline's pilots are on the rise, United's senior vice president of flight operations said Sunday in a staff memo obtained by CNBC.A JetBlue spokesperson told Fox Business that there was an "increasing number of sick calls from Omicron" and that the airline was trying to cancel flights that would cause the least disruption to passengers, and a SkyWestOmicron is the dominant coronavirus strain in the US, and cases are surging in other countries, too. Studies suggest that the variant ismore transmissible than previous variants, like Delta, and some data indicates that its symptoms are milder.
Widespread flight cancellations continued for a 5th consecutive day amid a surge in COVID-19 infections, bringing the total to around 13,000 since Friday - Airlines are continuing to slash flights as rising numbers of staff are infected by the Omicron coronavirus variant and bad winter weather disrupts parts of the US. As of Tuesday morning, 2,182 flights set to depart that day had been canceled, according to figures from the flight-tracking website FlightAware. Data from the website suggests that about 13,000 flights have been canceled since Friday morning. Of Tuesday's cancellations, 675 — just under a third — were flights within, into, or out of the US, according to FlightAware's data at the time of writing. United Airlines has canceled 115 flights, or 5% of its total flights for the day, according to the data. Alaska Airlines has canceled 50 flights scheduled for Tuesday, or 8% of its flights, and JetBlue has canceled 75 flights, or 7% of its schedule. Delta has canceled 81 flights, or 3%, and Spirit has canceled 69, or 8%. SkyWest, which is contracted for some regional flights by Alaska, American, Delta, and United, has canceled 139 flights on Tuesday, or about 6% of its scheduled flights. American Airlines and SkyWest previously told Insider that they had canceled some flights due to rising cases of COVID-19 among staff. A Delta spokesperson said the Omicron variant had affected the airline's schedule. Delta, Alaska, and SkyWest said that harsh weather conditions in parts of the US, including heavy snow in Washington state on Sunday, were also to blame for some cancellations. "Crew-related cancellations due to COVID are no longer a factor," an Alaska spokesperson said. The bulk of Tuesday's canceled flights were operated by Chinese airlines, including China Eastern, which has canceled 415 flights, and Air China, which has canceled 190 flights. The Indonesian airline Lion Air also canceled 124 flights. The three airlines didn't respond to Insider's requests for comment.
1,400 US flights canceled Friday as omicron continues to slow travel - More than 1,400 flights going into, out of and within the U.S. were canceled on Friday as the year comes to a close with snarled travel due to the impact of COVID-19 and the omicron variant on airlines and their crews. According to FlightAware's live delay and cancellation statistic, 1,417 flights in the U.S. were canceled on New Year's Eve. The U.S. airlines reporting the highest volume of canceled flights are SkyWest, United, JetBlue, Delta, Allegiant Air and Southwest. On top of these cancellations, nearly 2,000 additional flights in the U.S. have been delayed. Globally, more than 6,500 flights have been delayed and nearly 3,000 have been canceled. FlightAware's "MiseryMap" currently lists the Denver International Airport as being the most "miserable" in the U.S., with the Seattle-Tacoma, Hartsfield-Jackson Atlanta and Los Angeles international airports following behind. Over the holiday weekend, more than 7,000 flights were canceled in the U.S., leaving thousands of travelers stranded as they attempted to return home. Most airlines are attributing this rash of cancellations to the spike in COVID-19 cases among their workforce as well as winter weather stopping planes from departing. "The nationwide spike in omicron cases has had a direct impact on our flight crews and the people who run our operation. As a result, we’ve unfortunately had to cancel some flights and are notifying impacted customers in advance of them coming to the airport," United said in a statement earlier this week. Earlier this month, airline leaders called on the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) to shorten the length of quarantine for breakthrough infections. Soon after, the CDC announced that it was shortening its recommended quarantine period to five days regardless of vaccination status. The agency recommended that people continue to wear a mask for an additional five days after leaving isolation, but did not say that a test negative COVID-19 test should be gotten as well. This decision has drawn criticism from health experts who argue that this may lead to people leaving isolation while still being capable of spreading infections.
Omicron could force many workers who test positive to quarantine under federal mandate, intensifying labor shortages - The NBA, NFL and NHL have been hit with a rash of COVID-19 outbreaks in recent weeks, leaving teams with depleted rosters and postponing some games, while college football has been forced to cancel a few bowl games. Now imagine similar scenarios playing out at many restaurants, stores, hotels and factories across the U.S. A federal mandate for companies with 100 or more employees to ensure they’re vaccinated or tested weekly could worsen severe worker shortages – if it’s upheld in court – by forcing staffers who test positive to quarantine even if they have no symptoms, employment lawyers say. Such worker absences could become widespread, particularly at workplaces where employees can’t work remotely, such as stores and restaurants. That’s because omicron variant is highly contagious but often results in milder cases or positive tests without symptoms, lawyers say. Within a single week in mid-December, omicron surged in the U.S., from making up just 13% of all coronavirus cases to 73%. “A lot more people will test positive than before,” says James Sullivan, co-chair of law firm Cozen O’Connor’s Occupational Safety and Health Administration-Workplace Safety Practice Group. “It will be a testing/quarantining extravaganza!” The Supreme Court on Jan. 7, is scheduled to hear oral arguments on whether President Joe Biden’s vaccination-or-testing mandate can take effect as scheduled on Feb. 9. The directive was temporarily blocked by a court before another appeals court reinstated it, with the High Court set to resolve the conflict next month. Or at least until the broader case is hashed out later this year. Most of the controversy surrounding the mandate has focused on whether midsize and large businesses should be forced to order the vaccination of their employees. But the testing of staffers who refuse to get vaccinated could become an even thornier issue, attorneys say. Sullivan, however, says most companies that have imposed vaccination requirements – largely banks, law firms and other professional service companies – have not provided an option for testing, which can result in administrative hassles and higher costs. And many restaurants, stores, factories and other businesses have not required employee vaccinations because they’re already struggling to fill openings amid dire labor shortages, Sullivan says. Biden’s rule, however, would force their hand and apply to more than 80 million workers. Many firms will likely give employees who refuse to get vaccinated the option of weekly testing so they don’t quit, Sullivan says. “If you’re doing more testing, you’re going to find more cases,”
Amid another Covid surge, schools and businesses find plans disrupted once again --A Covid-19 outbreak on a cruise in Lisbon. Thousands of flights canceled. Colleges going remote again.It's a new year but the pandemic continues to cause many of the same massive disruptions to American life that it has for almost two years now.The most recent variant to blame is the omicron strain, which is highly transmissible and more likely to evade the protection of vaccines. Over the last week, a seven-day average of daily new cases of the virus topped 386,000, a doubling from the week prior, according to CNBC analysis of Johns Hopkins University data. Rates are likely even higher because there are delays in reporting over the holidays and an increase in at-home testing that may be keeping cases off the radar of officials.The surge in new Covid-19 cases means that attempts by businesses and schools to resume normal operation after the holidays are being upended once again.Companies are pushing back their return-to-work dates as cases peak, including Chevron, Apple, Google and Uber.Dozens of colleges have announced they're moving classes online. Harvard University said it would aim to move much of its work and learning remote for at least the first three weeks of January."Please know that we do not take this step lightly," Harvard officials wrote in a letter to staff and students. "It is prompted by the rapid rise in COVID-19 cases locally and across the country."Other schools also making the change include The University of Chicago,George Washington University and Columbia University. Many colleges will likely require that students have had their booster vaccine to return in the spring, as breakthrough cases become more common.Local school districts across the country are also reassessing their plans as well. Some districts are switching back to remote or hybrid learning, while others are trying to lessen the exposure children have to each other by having students attend classes on modified schedule, without a lunch period. Although New York City, which is the nation's largest school district, has seen an explosion in Covid cases, the school system will be open as scheduled on Monday. The district is hoping to step up testing efforts to keep instruction in-person. The plan is to double the pace of testing, among both vaccinated and unvaccinated students. Students will be tested even if they don't display sympton or have a record of having contact with someone who has been sickened by the virus.One concern is that people will be returning from vacations and visits with family and friends over the holidays, and will have unknowingly been exposed to Covid. As the rush home get underway, travel has also be upended both by the virus, and by stormy weather, which has grounded some planes. By Saturday afternoon, more than 2,500 U.S. flights had been canceled,according to tracking service FlightAware. Some of the disruptions are also due to winter storms.A cruise ship with over 4,000 people aboard has been stopped in Lisbon, Portugal due to a Covid-19 outbreak among crew members, the AP reported on Saturday. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said on Thursday that Americans avoid should cruises, regardless of their vaccination status.
How America's ICUs Are Dealing with Another Christmas of Death and Distress - The New York Times — Of all the Covid patients that Ronda Stevenson is treating over Christmas, there’s one she cannot stop thinking about. He has been hospitalized for 10 months, and in all that time his 7-year-old daughter has never once been allowed to visit, prohibited from the hospital by age restrictions that keep families separated. Situations like this are bringing even veteran health care workers to tears. Ms. Stevenson, an intensive care unit nurse at Eskenazi Health in Indianapolis for the past seven years, cries as she talks about her patients and their families, making clear the grinding toll of the pandemic on already exhausted hospital work forces. “We’re pretty short-staffed,” Ms. Stevenson said. She added: “It’s getting harder.” Instead of taking holiday vacations this weekend, workers at strained hospitals across the nation are working 16-hour shifts. Some have been on the job every day for weeks. Festive meals have been replaced with protein bars and sports drinks. This Christmas weekend, with the United States facing another surge of illness stoked by a proportion of the population that remains unvaccinated, frontline workers are again sacrificing time at home with family to tend to Covid patients. In Indiana, which has among the highest rates of hospitalization and lowest rates of vaccination in the country, the situation is especially acute. “A lot of people, including myself, had scheduled time off but are now being asked to come in and pick up shifts to cover for one another and meet the increased demands of patient care,” said Dr. Graham Carlos, the executive medical director at Eskenazi, which is at capacity and has had a backlog of patients in the emergency room. He worries that it will only get worse. “If the numbers continue as they are, a tidal wave of infections is going to hit hospital systems, putting us in dire straits,” he said. Image Nearly two years into a pandemic that shows no sign of abating, doctors, nurses and other frontline workers have already faced the emotional toll of mass death in their hospitals. They have endured the frustration of pleading with the public to take precautions only to watch outbreaks unfold as people ignored the call for help. They have suffered the moral distress of not being able to give patients the ideal level of care. But this season, there is a new strain on the system: Many workers who persisted through the first year of the pandemic have departed jobs because of burnout and anxiety. And with the Omicron variant pushing case numbers up dramatically, the caregivers who remain are getting infections, too, straining staff levels in unpredictable ways. “This is the worst I’ve ever seen it,” said Maureen May, a nurse with 37 years of experience who serves as president of the Pennsylvania Association of Staff Nurses and Allied Professionals. She canceled her own holiday plans to pick up a shift on Christmas Day so that a co-worker could have time away. Facing urgent concerns about hospital staffing shortages, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention this week shortened the isolation periods for infected health care workers, allowing them to return to the job in seven days, instead of 10. President Biden also said that 1,000 military doctors, nurses, paramedics and other medical personnel would be deployed to shore up staffing levels at hospitals in the coming weeks.
Two more NBA coaches to miss games due to COVID-19 protocols: ESPN - Phoenix Suns coach Monty Williams and Portland Trail Blazers coach Chauncey Billups have entered the NBA's health and safety protocols and will miss their respective teams' upcoming games. Williams and Billups join the Los Angeles Lakers' coach Frank Vogel and Chicago Bulls' coach Billy Donovan in the league’s COVID-19-related protocols, according to ESPN. The Hill has reached out to the Suns and to the Trail Blazers for comment. Cases in the NBA have surged among players, causing several games to be postponed. It has made it difficult for some teams to field lineups, with a number of players previously out of the league returning, such as former all-star Joe Johnson. It's also hit the league's coaches, with Alvin Gentry of the Sacramento Kings and Rick Carlisle of the Indiana Pacers recently returned to coaching after spending time in the protocols, per ESPN. NBA Commissioner Adam Silver said last week that despite the difficulties, he had no intention of pausing the league's season.
Fifth bowl game canceled over COVID-19 issues - The Holiday Bowl between the North Carolina State Wolfpack and the University of California Los Angeles Bruins was canceled Tuesday due to a COVID-19 outbreak within UCLA’s program, ESPN reported. "We are extremely grateful to the Holiday Bowl, students, fans, sponsors and the people of San Diego for their support this week," UCLA athletic director Martin Jarmond said in a statement. "We are deeply disappointed for our young men in the football program that worked extremely hard for this opportunity. My heart goes out to them. The health and safety of our students will always be our North Star."UCLA and NC State had been scheduled to compete at Petco Park at 8 p.m. on Tuesday. NC State head football coach Dave Doeren said nobody at the school knew that UCLA was dealing with coronavirus-related issues as the team arrived in San Diego to prepare for the post-season contest.Doeren said his athletic director, Boo Corrigan, told him the game was off minutes before media outlets reported it, ESPN reported. "Felt lied to, to be honest," Doeren said. "We felt like UCLA probably knew something was going on, didn't tell anybody on our side. We had no clue they were up against that. I don't feel like it was very well handled from their university. It would have been great to have had a heads-up so two or three days ago we could have found a Plan B. Disappointing."Doeren added he doesn’t know if it will be logistically possible to try and find a new opponent for the contest. The Military Bowl, Hawaii Bowl, Fenway Bowl and Arizona Bowl have all been canceled due to COVID-19 outbreaks and concerns.Texas A&M, meanwhile, was forced to drop out of the Gator Bowl against Wake Forest. The Aggies have been replaced by Rutgers in that game, scheduled for Friday.
New York City subway services are set to run less frequently this week as COVID-19 cases soar --Subway services across New York City are set to run less frequently from Monday to Thursday as COVID-19 cases swell.The New York City Transit Authority, a division of the Metropolitan Transportation Authority, said on Sunday that subways would be less frequent and passengers may have to wait longer for their train. It advised people to check travel information in advance.In a tweet announcing the scheduling changes, NYCTA said that it had been "affected by the COVID surge," without elaborating.Other transport providers have slashed services as staff members have caught or been exposed to the virus. More than 700 flights within, into, or out of the US were canceled on Monday, per FlightAware, with many US airlines citing staff sickness. COVID-19 cases have been on the rise across the US in recent weeks.The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention reported 291,671 new cases on Monday, December 20, 205,076 on Tuesday, and 243,817 on Wednesday, the most-recent day for which data is available over the holiday period.Though national COVID-19 cases haven't yet hit a new weekly peak, cases in New York City have soared. The city's seven-day moving average hit a record 12,480 cases on Wednesday, the most-recent day for which CDC data is available. At the height of last winter's peak, the city's seven-day moving average reached 6,346, CDC data shows.
After 4 Killings, ‘Officer of the Year’ Is Still on the Job - A Pennsylvania state trooper was returned to duty following three investigations by his own agency. A fourth inquiry is underway.— In November 2008, Pennsylvania Trooper Jay Splain was honored at a county law enforcement banquet as a hero, the police officer of the year. The reason: He had shot and killed a suicidal man who allegedly pointed an Uzi submachine gun at him. That was the first killing. Trooper Splain went on to fatally shoot three more people in separate incidents, an extraordinary tally for an officer responsible for patrolling largely rural areas with low rates of violent crime. All four who died were troubled, struggling with drugs, mental illness or both. In two cases, including that of the man with the Uzi, family members had called the police for help because their relatives had threatened to kill themselves. The most recent death was last month, when Trooper Splain shot an unarmed man in his Volkswagen Beetle. After learning that the officer had previously killed three other people over nearly 15 years, the man’s sister, Autumn Krouse, asked, “Why would that person still be employed?” Trooper Splain is an outlier. Most officers never fire their weapons. Until now, his full record of killings has not been disclosed; the Pennsylvania State Police even successfully fought a lawsuit seeking to identify him and provide other details in one shooting. In the agency’s more than a century of policing, no officer has ever been prosecuted for fatally shooting someone, according to a spokesman. That history aligns with a longstanding pattern across the country of little accountability for police officers’ use of deadly force.Prosecutors and a grand jury concluded that Trooper Splain’s first three lethal shootings were justified, and an inquiry into the most recent one is ongoing. Rather than have independent outsiders look into the killings, the police agency has conducted its own investigations — which were led by officers from his unit — raising questions about the rigor of the inquiries.In its review of Trooper Splain’s killings, The New York Times found inconsistencies between the evidence of what occurred and what the state police said had happened. The officer appeared to have departed from police protocols in several of the fatal confrontations, according to interviews and an examination of investigative and court records.
Child COVID-19 hospitalizations quadruple in New York City as Omicron spreads - In the three weeks since the Omicron variant of COVID-19 began to spread through New York City, the number of children aged 0-19 who were hospitalized because of COVID-19 infections has quadrupled. According to the latest figures, 109 children are now hospitalized with conditions related to COVID-19, compared to 22 in early December. Half of the children recently hospitalized were too young to be vaccinated. The rise in severe childhood illness from COVID-19 accompanies a climb in the overall hospitalization rate in the city of 73 percent. As of December 27, 2,777 city residents have been recently hospitalized for COVID-related conditions with 348 in intensive care units. Statewide, hospitalizations surged 11 percent in just one day, from 4,891 on Christmas to 5,526 on Sunday. New York City is in the forefront of the Omicron wave of infection sweeping across the United States. The highly infectious variant is largely responsible for the more than doubling of the seven-day average of daily new cases over the past two weeks, from 120,563 to 266,563. Pediatric hospitalization rates across the US have increased 48 percent in the last week. Since March 2020, 1,035 children 17 and younger have died from COVID-19, the majority over the past four months amid the bipartisan, union-backed campaign to fully reopen schools this fall. An unknown number of those now being infected with Omicron, including children, will suffer long-term effects from the disease, even among those who were never hospitalized. On Monday, another 22,000 people in the city tested positive, with a test positivity rate of roughly 20 percent, indicating that many more infectious are going undetected. The latest figures show that over 1 in 50 Manhattan residents have been infected in the last two weeks. The unfolding disaster for children in New York has been met by a “united front,” as the New York Times put it, of leading Democratic Party politicians committed to sending children back into school buildings when classes resume on January 3. The outgoing Democratic mayor of New York, Bill de Blasio, the Democratic governor of the state, Kathy Hochul, and incoming Democratic Mayor Eric Adams, appeared at a news conference on Tuesday morning to lie about the safety of schools and the need to keep them open. In announcing his “Stay Safe, Stay Open” plan, de Blasio said, “We start with a reminder that our schools have been extraordinarily safe—bluntly, the safest places to be in New York City, very low levels of COVID.” Bluntly, the mayor was lying. His claim is based on the small percentage of students that are actually tested in the schools, supposedly 10 percent weekly but, in reality, far fewer since only a small number of students have ever turned in the required parental consent form. Since September, when the schools opened, educators have been demanding more frequent testing, which the de Blasio administration cut in half. The farcical character of the program is well known in the school system. “It’s the same 10 kids tested over and over in my school,” as one educator said to the World Socialist Web Site. Before the Omicron surge, one parents group estimated that only 14 percent of positive cases in 5–18-year-olds in the city were discovered by testing in school. The rest came from independent tests administered by the city outside of the schools or by private testing services.
De Blasio announces NYC schools will open as planned after holiday recess -Outgoing New York City Mayor Bill de Blasio (D) on Tuesday announced that schools will reopen as planned following the winter break on Jan. 3, despite the rapid rise in COVID-19 cases driven by the spread of the omicron variant."The science is clear. Schools need to be open," de Blasio said in a press briefing. "Everyone talks about the needs of our kids. Their health needs, physical health, mental health, nutrition needs, their social development. These are academic needs, schools need to be open."De Blasio credited vaccinations with helping to keep schools safe for students to attend and encouraged parents, particularly those with younger children, to get their kids vaccinated.As part of New York City's effort to keep school open amid the surge of cases, de Blasio announced that schools would be doubling the amount COVID-19 testing and both vaccinated and unvaccinated students would be included in this measure.New York Gov. Kathy Hochul (D) voiced support for the planned school reopening, recalling what she called the "failed experiment" of remote learning and how it negatively affected students, parents and teachers."It is so important that we get our kids back to school as soon as this winter break is over, we all have such a strong public interest," she said.Hochul announced that 2 million at-home test kits will be sent out to New York City public schools for students to use to help support their return to in-person learning.If there is a positive COVID-19 case at a school, then at-home test kits will be sent home with students that day, and all students must come back to school if they are asymptomatic and tested negative. Two test kits will be sent home with students over the course of seven days.New York City Mayor-elect Eric Adams (D), who praised de Blasio for helping with ensuring a smooth imminent transition, stated that it was important for both schools and businesses in the city to "stay safe and stay open."
Omicron surge intensifies crisis in Washington State public schools - The rapid spread of the Omicron variant in Washington state is deepening the crisis in public education and threatening to provoke an independent movement of educators and parents to close schools in order to prevent further COVID-19 infections. Last week, as Seattle Public Schools headed into winter break, the district wrote to parents, “Uncertainty at any time is challenging, but no more so than now, after the stress and anxiety of the last several weeks.” It added, “We are sharing this information with you now so you can be as ready as possible should your child need to switch to remote learning.” Similar messages were sent to families in other districts in the state, and local press ran multiple articles on this theme. Last Thursday, there were 5,214 official COVID-19 cases across Washington, the third-highest figure during the entire pandemic and the highest since December 7, 2020. King County reported 2,879 cases that day, more cases than has ever been recorded in the county in one day. Scientists have determined that the Omicron variant is now causing 80 percent of new cases in the Seattle area and is dominant statewide, as across the United States. The University of Washington’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) predicts that daily new cases in Washington could surpass 38,000 in February 2022, more than 20 times the current seven-day average of daily new cases. For the week of December 11–17, there were 135 COVID-19 cases recorded in Seattle schools, an increase of 69 from the week prior, the largest one-week increase since the start of the pandemic. The district’s and teachers union’s uncompromising insistence on in-person learning, regardless of the rate of infection, has led to teachers and staff independently struggling for their own lives and safety. Two weeks ago, three separate Seattle-area schools were forced to close for two days, primarily due to the pandemic but also after threats of violence directed at the school. At Cleveland High School, which experienced its largest one-week increase in COVID-19 cases among students and staff, teachers organized a wildcat sickout strike that forced the school to close.
Here are the COVID safety plans announced by school districts so far - As Ohio continues to report record-breaking coronavirus cases and hospitalizations in the state, local school districts are implementing new plans for the second half of the 2021-22 school year in an effort to keep students staff and staff safe—and some district leaders have decided it is time to go remote again.That is what Cleveland Metropolitan School District CEO Eric Gordon announced for students in his district on Wednesday. Right now, the district will be remote learning for the first week of learning in 2022."That's going to ruffle some feathers," said Eric Butler. Decisions like that kept some parents on the edge of their seats, waiting to see what happens in their child's schools. It is a delicate balance between having enough information and giving families time to regroup."It is extremely important for districts that they are continually communicating with parents," Butler said, a parent and administrator in Parma City Schools. "I think that is our main number one thing. The more communication with parents the more camaraderie and support you get from parents and guardians ... I think districts will find they will have more success."Some districts, like Parma, are starting the new semester with in-person learning."We don't just need to keep kids safe from bullies and fires and intruders. We need to keep them safe from this pandemic," said Kynslee Pearrell. She has kids in both public and private schools.Her kids will be wearing masks when they are in their classrooms. Pearrell is an educator and after spending nearly a decade out of the classroom, she started as a substitute a few months ago. "If you're a parent, if you're a superintendent, if you're a school board member, you're a teacher. We all share the same goals. We all want our kids in school," DeWine said in a Wednesday press conference. His statement came in response to a letter from the Ohio Children's Hospital Association which encouraged district to make masks mandatory."I'm a huge advocate of kids being in school still by following scientific, medical experts," Pearrell said. Her family is vaccinated but she is worried about what could happen when her kids go back in the classroom, so she is already making plans. "Quite honestly, I'll likely keep our son home until the 5th just to have those extra days just in case," she said.
Maryland State Board of Education passes proposal to loosen mask regulations in schools as state sees record infections-On December 7, the Maryland State Board of Education, by a 12–1 margin, passed a new rule allowing local school districts in the state to determine whether to maintain mask mandates in schools. The measure must be approved by the Maryland General Assembly’s Joint Committee on Administrative, Executive & Legislative Review before it can take effect. St “It provides us a way forward that does give off-ramps… Ultimately, everyone needs to be working in that same direction, to find a way that we can finally get rid of the masks,” proclaimed board member Lori Morrow, who introduced the measure. The new rule would give the state’s 24 school systems (23 counties, plus the city of Baltimore) the ability to end school mask mandates under three scenarios: if a respective county’s vaccination rate reaches 80 percent, if 80 percent of the students and staff at a school are vaccinated, or if the county’s transmission rate is “low” or “moderate,” under Centers for Disease Control and Prevention standards, for 14 consecutive days. The Maryland school board decision came just before the massive wave of the highly infectious Omicron variant of COVID-19 hit the United States, causing new cases to exponentially increase. Maryland’s number of hospitalizations has almost tripled since the first confirmed cases of the Omicron variant, to 2,046 as of December 29. The number of cases has shot up significantly as well. On December 4, daily cases in the state stood at a seven-day average of 1,340. As of December 28, the seven-day average of daily new cases is up to 6,847, a more than 500 percent increase in less than four weeks. Two days before the new guidelines were voted on, the Maryland Department of Health was hit by a cyberattack, leaving several crucial metrics, such as daily case totals, unreported for about two weeks, further eroding any claim that the new guideline was based upon scientific data. Even though daily case figures have returned, other important metrics, most importantly daily cases by age range, have still not been restored. With children around the world being forced back to school by the ruling class and their partners in the trade unions, they are being infected at greater rates than ever before, leaving increasing numbers suffering serious illness and death. While children aged 5–11 now have access to vaccines, vaccination rates remain very low in that age group. According to the Kaiser Family Foundation, as of December 5, only 24.2 percent of 5–11-year-olds in Maryland have received at least one dose. Maryland’s Republican Governor Larry Hogan has been at the forefront of undermining public health at the state level. Immediately following the election and inauguration of President Biden in early 2021, Hogan demanded school reopenings by March 1, falsely claiming that “there is no public health reason for school boards to be keeping students out of school” and that “school reopenings do not contribute to community spread and increased hospitalizations.”
Massachusetts denies teacher union's request to keep schools closed for COVID-19 testing - Massachusetts officials have denied a teacher union’s request to keep schools closed for COVID-19 testing.The Massachusetts Teachers Association made the request to close schools for COVID testing with the input from their environmental health and safety committee and public health experts, according to a report by the Associated Press.But Massachusetts’ Executive Office of Education spokesperson Colleen Quinn told the AP that the department will not close schools on Monday. “The commissioner is not going to close schools Monday, and asks teachers to be patient as we work to get tests in their hands this weekend,” Quinn said in a statement. “It is disappointing that once again the MTA is trying to find a way to close schools, which we know is to the extreme detriment of our children.” Schools set to resume classes after a holiday break next week are doing so as the highly-contagious omicron variant of the coronavirus hits the United States hard. The nation has been breaking records for daily positive tests, though data suggests the omicron variant is not leading to serious cases of COVID-19 that end in hospitalization or death.The leading teachers union in Massachusetts had argued it would be safer to keep schools closed as more is learned about the variant.“To protect the public health and the safety of our communities, it is urgent to allow districts to use Jan. 3 for administering COVID-19 tests to school staff and analyzing the resulting data,” MTA union president Merrie Najimy said in a statement. Najimy acknowledged that delaying the start of school would pose a hardship for some families, but told the AP there would be no hesitation in the case of a storm. Najimy added that making Monday a COVID-19 test day will help school districts make staffing decisions and ensure that in-person learning continues. Massachusetts’ Department of Elementary and Secondary Education earlier this week said it purchased 200,000 COVID-19 rapid tests which will be disturbed across the state for faculty and staff testing, the AP noted.’
Cleveland schools named after slaveholders considered for renaming – Names on several Cleveland Metropolitan School District buildings are under review to be replaced. “Very, very happy once again that the school board moved in this direction,” said Ward 9 Councilman Kevin Conwell.Per a December resolution and recommendations from a School Naming Ad Hoc Work Group, five schools are being prioritized for further review as they are currently named for slaveholders and other historical figures with racially problematic pasts. The buildings include Albert Bushnell Hart PreK-8 School, Louis Agassiz PreK-8 School, Luis Munoz Marin PreK-8 School, Patrick Henry PreK-8 School and Thomas Jefferson PreK-12 International Newcomers AcademyPatrick Henry Elementary is in Conwell’s ward. “Patrick Henry owned 60 slaves. He owned 60 slaves and then the children of our community are going to a school named after him?” said Conwell.Conwell said the murder of George Floyd in 2020 brought the issue back to the forefront. “I reached out to (CMSD CEO) Eric Gordon and the school board. They were right there so I definitely want to thank the school board and thank Eric Gordon for benefiting our children in the city of Cleveland,” said Conwell.In September, the board of education approved new naming criteria which, among many guidelines, includes: “The Board will not consider the names of persons who have a documented history of enslaving other humans, or have actively participated in the institution of slavery, systemic racism, the oppression of people of color, women or other minority groups, or who have been a member of a supremist organization.”“Any schools that come online after this, there’s a process of naming the schools and they’re going to have the community to name the schools,” said Conwell.The school made clear that no further action will be taken until they get feedback from the community in meetings that are tentatively scheduled for January and February of 2022. The councilman said he hopes Patrick Henry will be renamed for former Congresswoman Stephanie Tubbs Jones, but ultimately just wants to see a name of inspiration proudly displayed. “And they might want to become a congressperson or even a president of the United States. That’s very, very good, but having something named after a former slaveholder, that was horrible,” Conwell said. Conwell said following the community meetings, he hopes an announcement of the new names can line up with Black History Month.
Howard University delays spring semester start amid COVID-19 surge - Howard University is delaying the start of its spring classes until Jan. 18 as a result of an uptick in COVID-19 infections in the Washington region. Classes for both undergraduates and graduates are still set to begin in person. Everyone on campus will be required to provide proof of a negative PCR test within four days of arriving, the university said. "We are continuing to monitor the surge in COVID-19 cases locally and throughout the region," the school added in its announcement on Monday. "The significant increase in cases is, in part, due to the spread of the omicron variant, which is more easily transmissible than the delta variant." The school has also mandated that all students, faculty and staff have a booster shot by Jan. 31 or within 30 days of being eligible. The university noted that it will continue to grant medical and religious exemptions. "Breakthrough cases of COVID-19 will continue to occur. We know that individuals who have received a booster shot of mRNA vaccines (Pfizer and Moderna) have significantly more antibodies in their system than individuals who have not yet received booster shots and even more than those who are unvaccinated," the university also said. Howard joins multiple other universities, including several University of California campuses and two University of Illinois campuses, in delaying the in-person start of the upcoming term. Middlebury College in Vermont, where 100 percent of students are fully vaccinated, had previously switched its fall semester to virtual learning after an uptick in infections earlier this month.
New Student Loan Payment Schedule -I keep talking about how the consolidation fees, late fees, forbearance interest, etc. and the interest on the previous adds up over time. Pretty soon, it surpasses the original loan balance. There are probably worse examples of this occurring. As it is, the non-principal payments are more than twice the original principal.The original loan was $105,000. As you can see there is ~$81,000 in interest capitalized into the loan resulting from nonpayment, consolidation, etc. (mentioned above. Future interest is calculated at almost $206,000. Typically in these loans if a payment is not made as in forbearance, the interest must be paid first before any funds are applied to the principal.As you can see, much of the balance is accumulated interest on various items mentioned above making it harder to even make a payment. We are arguing about a loan of which the amount originally loaned is far less than the balance.This loan will never be paid off for obvious reasons as described below. The relief? Die . . . The story: “This was my Christmas present from our government! I am 56 years old and have survived cancer 3 times. According to Navient, I will not be able to die till I am 85 years old! That is how long it will take me to pay off this crap! If you wonder how I got this high Balance, ask Sallie Mae. I left school with a balance of a little over $105,000 but thanks to the fees and interest I now owe this! Anyone who thinks this crap is not corrupt needs to do some research. This has to stop!” There are other consequences to owing money to the government. You are blocked from other programs, etc.
Study finds abrupt decline in the prevalence of cognitive impairment among older Americans --A new nationally representative study published online in the Journal of Alzheimer's Diseasefound an abrupt decline in the prevalence of cognitive impairment among American adults aged 65 and older compared to the same age group a decade earlier.In 2008, 12.2% of older Americans reported serious cognitive problems. In 2017, the percentage had declined to 10.0%. To put this into perspective, if the prevalence of cognitive impairment had remained at the 2008 levels, an additional 1.13 million older Americans would have experienced cognitive impairment in 2017.We were astonished to see the prevalence of cognitive impairment decrease so sharply over such a short period of time. This decline in the prevalence of serious cognitive problems has a cascade of benefits for older adults, their families and caregivers, the health and long-term care system, and the whole US economy. The study was based on 10 consecutive waves of the American Community Survey (2008-2017), an annual nationally representative cross-sectional survey of approximately half a million American respondents aged 65 and older, including both institutionalized and community-dwelling older adults. A total of 5.4 million older Americans were included in the study. In each year, respondents were asked to report if they had "serious difficulty concentrating, remembering, or making decisions."The rate of decline in cognitive impairment was steeper for women than men. Women experienced a decline of 23% over the decade, while their male peers had a 13% decline during that period. The researchers conducted sub-analyses on men and women aged 65-69, 70-74, 75-79, 80-84, 85-89, & and 90+. All gender and age cohorts experienced a statistically significant decline in the prevalence of cognitive impairment, with the exception of men aged 65-69.Further analyses indicated that 60% of the observed decline in serious cognitive impairment between 2008 and 2017 was attributable to generational differences in educational attainment. Extensive previous research has concluded that every additional year of formal schooling lowers the risk of individuals eventually developing dementia. Compared to children born in the 1920s, Americans born in each successive decade had much greater opportunities to pursue post-secondary education."It appears that these increasing educational opportunities continue to pay dividends more than half a century later," says co-author Katherine Ahlin, a recent Master of Social Work graduate from University of Toronto's FIFSW. "The short-term benefits of increasing educational attainment for income, productivity and the economy are well documented, but our research suggests the long-term benefits on later-life cognitive functioning are substantial. Our findings underline the importance of ensuring each generation has access to quality and affordable education."
Coinfection of SARS-CoV-2 and human rhinovirus associated with more severe health outcomes -- In a recent Viruses study, researchers focused on co-infections with SARS-CoV-2 and human rhinovirus (HRV), as HRV was the most frequently associated co-infection with SARS-CoV-2 that was detected in as many as 41% of patients at Marseille University. To this end, the researchers compared clinical severity in patients coinfected with a SARS-CoV-2 and HRV against those infected only with one of either virus.A higher number of SARS-CoV-2 co-infections with HRV has been consistently observed in multiple previous studies conducted in various settings and geographical areas. However, the clinical outcome of these cases with SARS-CoV-2 and HRV co-infection remains unknown.The current study was conducted between March 1, 2020, and February 28, 2021. Herein, the researchers used the reverse-transcriptase polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) assay to detect SARS-CoV-2 and other respiratory viruses from nasopharyngeal samples as part of the routine work at Marseille University hospitals. In addition, bacterial and fungal infections were also detected using standard laboratory tests. All relevant clinical data were retrospectively collected from medical files. Taken together, a total of 15,157 patients were included in the study, of which 40% (6,034) tested positive for at least one respiratory virus. Furthermore, 93 patients (4.3%) infected with SARS-CoV-2 were coinfected with another respiratory virus, with 67% of these patients (62) testing positive for HRV. Patients coinfected with SARS-CoV-2 and HRV were significantly more likely to report a cough than those with only a SARS-CoV-2 infection. These patients were also significantly more likely to report breathing discomfort as compared to patients with rhinovirus mono-infection. Patients with both SARS-CoV-2 and HRV infections were also more likely to experience severe infection, get transferred to an intensive care unit, and die as compared to patients with only rhinovirus infection. However, these differences were not statistically significant.
Flu making a comeback as Covid cases reach record levels in U.S. - Flu cases are on the rise once again in the United States after reaching an all-time low last year.The total number of cases could reach pre-pandemic levels, health experts say, potentially causing additional strain on the nation’s hospitals as they fight back a wave of Covid-19 cases fueled by theextremely contagious omicron variant.“I think it’s quite possible that we could have what we would term ‘a normal flu season,’” said Lynnette Brammer, an epidemiologist who leads the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's domestic influenza surveillance team. “In a lot of cases, we’re already seeing more flu activity than we saw with all of last year.”The CDC has reported more than 4,500 flu cases from clinical laboratories nationwide for the week ending Dec. 18, up from about 2,500 cases two weeks earlier. Flu experts say they expect cases to continue to increase over the next several weeks.The eastern and central parts of the country are seeing the most influenza activity, while the western parts are still reporting lower levels of the virus, but that could change in a few weeks, Brammer said."The flu is unpredictable," she said. "Some years, it’ll start in the South and move up. Sometimes, it’ll start on both coasts and move in. It does not have a consistent pattern to it."CDC data shows most cases are of the H3N2 lineage — a strain that experts say is particularly troublesome, as it tends to mutate faster than other variants of influenza and can cause more hospitalizations. Visits to doctor's offices, urgent care clinics and hospital emergency rooms for influenza-like illness— which the CDC describes as people who report fever, cough and a sore throat — surpassed the national baseline for the second week in a row, according to agency data. Hospitalizations for influenza also started to increase over the last two weeks.Two children died from the flu this month. In a typical year, the U.S. has anywhere between 150 to 200 pediatric deaths from the flu, but the two deaths in December were the first pediatric deaths due to the disease in over a year. Flu experts had previously said they were concerned that the country could be at risk for a severe flu season this year after seasonal flu cases reached record lows last year. In addition, some research suggestsvaccine effectiveness against the current dominant flu strain may be reduced this season; however, the shots are still likely to offer protection against serious illness and death, experts say. Flu cases were “substantially lower” during the 2020-21 influenza season because people were protecting themselves, including by working remotely, wearing masks and practicing social distancing, said Dr. Mark Roberts, director of the Public Health Dynamics Laboratory at the University of Pittsburgh.He said he’s concerned that regions of the country that currently don’t have mitigation measures for Covid will see a large increase in flu cases in the coming weeks.“What I think is worrisome now is that there are many states where they’re not doing much to try to prevent Covid,” Roberts said. “They’re getting rid of mask mandates, they’re letting people come indoors, and there’s quite a bit of variability in how states are handling the situation.
Study suggests coronavirus lingers in organs for months - Data from a new study suggests that the coronavirus that causes COVID-19 can persist in different parts of the body for months after infection, including the heart and brain.Scientists at the National Institutes of Health (NIH) found the virus can spread widely from the respiratory tract to almost every other organ in the body and linger for months.The researchers described the study as the "most comprehensive analysis to date" of the virus's persistence throughout the body and brain. They performed autopsies on 44 patients who died either from or with COVID-19 to map and quantify virus distribution across the body.Daniel Chertow, principal investigator in the NIH’s emerging pathogens section, said along with his colleagues that RNA from the virus was found in patients up to 230 days after symptom onset.The findings, released online Saturday in a pre-print manuscript, shed new light on patients who suffer from so-called "long COVID-19." The study found that the virus had replicated across multiple organ systems even among patients with asymptomatic to mild COVID-19. The virus was detected in all 44 cases and across 79 of 85 anatomical locations and body fluids sampled.While the "highest burden" of infection was in the lungs and airway, the study showed the virus can "disseminate early during infection and infect cells throughout the entire body,” including in the brain, as well as in ocular tissue, muscles, skin, peripheral nerves and tissues in the cardiovascular, gastrointestinal, endocrine and lymphatic systems."Our data support an early viremic phase, which seeds the virus throughout the body following pulmonary infection," the researchers wrote. The implications of long COVID-19 are still not fully understood, though the issue is likely to persist for years.For example, it's still not clear what, if any, issues fully vaccinated people will have if they get infected. The study was conducted on the bodies of people who died in the first year of the pandemic, before vaccines were available.
Counting the neurological cost of COVID-19 Nature . Despite multiple reports of neurological deficits in patients with COVID-19 from across the world, the precise incidence of these manifestations has remained unknown, and two new studies have attempted to address this issue. In a systematic review and meta-analysis1, Shubham Misra and colleagues detailed the occurrence of syndromic expression of neurological involvement in COVID-19 and probed the association of neurological indices with disease severity and mortality in patients with COVID-19. By analysing data from 55 countries, they identified 41 neurological manifestations that can occur in conjunction with COVID-19. Up to one-third of individuals with COVID-19 were estimated to exhibit at least one of these manifestations. Differences in the prevalence of the various neurological symptoms were observed between older (aged 60 years or more) and young (aged less than 18 years) subpopulations. Acute confusion or delirium, fatigue and myalgia tended to dominate in the older group. In patients aged under 18 years, the most common neurological symptoms were impairment of smell and/or taste and headache, and seizures were also noted in some individuals. Alarmingly, mortality in patients with COVID-19 who had one or more neurological manifestations was found to be 27% and was especially high in patients aged 60 years or more. The finding that the prevalence of stroke was 1.2% in people with COVID-19, compared with only 0.2% in those with influenza, is also concerning1. In the second study, Cristina Valencia Sanchez et al.2 evaluated the frequency of antibodies against the SARS-CoV-2 spike protein in serum samples from 556 consecutive patients who had undergone neural antibody testing as part of the diagnostic evaluation for autoimmune encephalitis. In this cohort, 18 (3%) of the patients tested positive for antibodies against SARS-CoV-2. Overall, the number of individuals with post-COVID-19 autoimmune encephalitis encountered by the researchers in their clinic was low, representing only 0.05% of patients with COVID-19-related diagnoses. In the few patients who developed autoimmune encephalitis following SARS-CoV-2 infection, neurological manifestations included seizures, mood disturbances, delirium and gait ataxia, sometimes accompanied by abnormal findings on brain MRI. From a prophylactic and therapeutic perspective, the neurological manifestations of COVID-19 raise several questions. First, do the observed neurological deficits truly reflect neuronal injury? Second, what mechanisms are involved in neuronal damage in COVID-19? Third, will the disabilities caused by neurological deficits continue to progress if COVID-19 takes a protracted course? Last, are any means available to reduce the incidence of neurological involvement in COVID-19? Skeletal muscle injury, fatigue, weakness, headaches and inability to concentrate are some of the many clinical complaints in patients with COVID-19 that could be of non-neural origin1. Therefore, more emphasis should probably be placed on clinical features such as recent persistent cognitive changes involving memory and reasoning after a COVID-19 diagnosis, seizures that cannot be explained by other causes, cranial nerve palsies, delirium, smell and taste impairment, impaired consciousness and gait ataxia1,2, with associated findings on imaging that suggest a genuine neurological deficit.
UK research investigates relationship between COVID-19 vaccination and Guillain-Barré syndrome - In a recent study published on the medRxiv* preprint server, researchers performed two parallel population-based studies using the National Immunization Management System (NIMS) data in England to investigate the possible relationship between COVID-19 vaccination and the incidences of Guillain-Barre syndrome (GBS). During the swine flu vaccination campaign in the United States, GBS became an adverse event of special interest (AESI) related to vaccination. From January 2020 onwards, the COVID-19 vaccination campaigns in the United Kingdom triggered extensive monitoring with GBS as an AESI. In the current study, the researchers retrospectively interrogated the database of patients hospitalized with GBS in England, Scotland, and Northern Ireland, along with the NIMS COVID-19 vaccinations data. They also characterized a large surveillance dataset of the incident U.K. GBS cases after COVID-19 vaccination and before vaccination during the same period, wherein they recorded the timing of onset after COVID-19 vaccination.A total of 996 GBS cases were reported to the National Immunoglobulin Database (NID) from January to October 2021. The number of GBS cases in January 2021 was significantly lower, continuing the trend of lower GBS rates of the years 2016-2020.However, in March and April 2021, England, Scotland, and Northern Ireland experienced a notable monthly increase in GBS cases. Importantly, GBS rates fell again in the normal range of the 2016-2020 average from July to October 2021.The U.K. COVID-19 vaccination program began on December 8, 2020, with the Pfizer-BioNTech BNT162b2 vaccine, followed by the AstraZeneca ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 in January 2021, and subsequently by the Moderna mRNA-1273 vaccine. By February 2021, 50% of adults over the age of 50 had taken their first vaccination.While.8 cases of GBS were reported per million first doses of the ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 vaccine, GBS cases associated with the first dose of the BNT162b2 vaccine were insignificant. This data suggests that more GBS cases were associated with the first dose of ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 COVID-19 vaccination and occurred within the first 42 days following immunization.
Studies Suggest Why Omicron Is Less Severe: It Spares the Lungs --A spate of new studies on lab animals and human tissues are providing the first indication of why the omicron variant causes milder disease than previous versions of the coronavirus. In studies on mice and hamsters, omicron produced less-damaging infections, often limited largely to the upper airway: the nose, throat and windpipe. The variant did much less harm to the lungs, where previous variants would often cause scarring and serious breathing difficulty. Sign up for The Morning newsletter from the New York Times “It’s fair to say that the idea of a disease that manifests itself primarily in the upper respiratory system is emerging,” said Roland Eils, a computational biologist at the Berlin Institute of Health, who has studied how coronaviruses infect the airway. In November, when the first report on the omicron variant came out of South Africa, scientists could only guess at how it might behave differently from earlier forms of the virus. All they knew was that it had a distinctive and alarming combination of more than 50 genetic mutations. Previous research had shown that some of these mutations enabled coronaviruses to grab onto cells more tightly. Others allowed the virus to evade antibodies, which serve as an early line of defense against infection. But how the new variant might behave inside of the body was a mystery. “You can’t predict the behavior of virus from just the mutations,” said Ravindra Gupta, a virus expert at the University of Cambridge. Over the past month, more than a dozen research groups, including Gupta’s, have been observing the new pathogen in the lab, infecting cells in petri dishes with omicron and spraying the virus into the noses of animals. As they worked, omicron surged across the planet, readily infecting even people who were vaccinated or had recovered from infections. But as cases skyrocketed, hospitalizations increased only modestly. Early studies of patients suggested that omicron was less likely to cause severe illness than other variants, especially in vaccinated people. Still, those findings came with a lot of caveats. For one thing, the bulk of early omicron infections were in young people, who are less likely to get seriously ill with all versions of the virus. And many of those early cases were happening in people with some immunity from previous infections or vaccines. It was unclear whether omicron would also prove less severe in an unvaccinated older person, for example. Experiments on animals can help clear up these ambiguities, because scientists can test omicron on identical animals living in identical conditions. More than a half-dozen experiments made public in recent days all pointed to the same conclusion: Omicron is milder than delta and other earlier versions of the virus. On Wednesday, a large consortium of Japanese and American scientists released a report on hamsters and mice that had been infected with either omicron or one of several earlier variants. Those infected with omicron had less lung damage, lost less weight and were less likely to die, the study found.
What data on 120,000 COVID hospitalizations shows about breakthrough cases - From June to September 2021, fully vaccinated people with breakthrough COVID-19 accounted for 15 percent of all U.S. COVID-19 hospitalizations, according to data from Peterson's and Kaiser Family Foundation's Health System Tracker. The data is from Cosmos, a HIPAA-defined dataset of more than 120 million patients from over 140 Epic organizations, including 250 hospitals across all 50 states and data on nearly 10 million admissions. More than 120,000 COVID-19 hospitalizations were examined.Individuals were considered fully vaccinated if they had received the required dose(s) of a COVID-19 vaccine and were at least 14 days from the single-dose vaccine or the second dose in an mRNA series. Six findings:
- 1. An overwhelming majority of COVID-19 hospitalizations were among unvaccinated or partially vaccinated people. From June to September 2021, 85 percent of virus hospitalizations were among those not fully vaccinated against COVID-19.
- 2. Age was highly correlated with breakthrough hospitalizations. The majority of COVID-19 breakthrough hospitalizations were of people 65 and older, while the majority of people not fully vaccinated and hospitalized with COVID-19 were adults ages 18 to 64. Only 10 percent of breakthrough hospitalizations were people under age 50.
- 3. Compared to the age distribution of fully vaccinated people in the U.S., people 65 and up make up a disproportionately large share of breakthrough hospitalizations. As of Sept. 30, 25 percent of fully vaccinated Americans were 65 and older. In comparison, in the Epic sample, 69 percent of fully vaccinated people hospitalized with breakthrough COVID-19 were 65 and older.
- 4. A greater share of people hospitalized with a breakthrough COVID-19 case also had at least one comorbidity compared to COVID-19 patients who weren't fully vaccinated.
- 5. Breakthrough hospitalizations included fewer COVID-related respiratory complications or treatments, suggesting fully vaccinated patients hospitalized with breakthrough COVID-19 may have been more likely to be hospitalized for unrelated reasons.
- 6. Fully vaccinated adults hospitalized with COVID-19 had shorter average hospital stays than those who weren't fully vaccinated within the same age group. Among patients over 65, the median COVID-19 hospital stay was 1.1 days shorter for those who were fully vaccinated (5.6 days) than for those not (6.7 days).
Reports of Breakthrough Cases Are Causing People To Question The Vaccine -- Contracting the COVID-19 virus and the variants without the vaccine is a possibility and the same can be said after receiving the vaccine, so what's the difference? According to Dr. David Shultz, a family practice physician and owner of Evansville Primary Care, the vaccine may help decrease the severity of COVID-19 symptoms. "Those who have never received the vaccine or who have never had the disease may get a very serious case of the Omicron variant because of never having made antibodies against it," said Dr. Shultz. According to the CDC vaccines are effective at preventing infection, serious illness, and death. However, like most, it is not one hundred percent effective. As of Monday, there have been more than 10,000 breakthrough cases reported in Vanderburgh County since January 2021and those cases maybe on the rise. "We're expecting those numbers to stay fairly consistent and actually maybe even a slight increase in those numbers or the next several weeks to come before they start to taper off," said Dr. Shultz. With there being breakthrough cases, people have their concerns, evening wondering if they should even receive the vaccine but doctors say it's still the best way to stay protected. "It's not too late and I would encourage you to get the vaccine," said Dr. Shultz. "for one to help keep yourself from getting the Coronavirus, and two if you do get Coronavirus then your symptoms will be much more mild and you're less likely to pass it on to another." Although the virus can still be contracted, doctors say the vaccine is meant to help stop the spread and prevent severe symptoms. Aside from receiving it, there are other ways to help prevent contracting the virus. "We need to be smart, we need to not go into large gatheringsm" said Dr. Shultz. "If you've had a respiratory illness whether it's a sinus cold, a sore throat, low grade fever even though those may be mild symptoms it's best advised not to attend that gathering and just remain at home for that."
Chicago's top doctor stresses effectiveness of vaccines as Omicron breakthrough cases increase - Chicago's top doctor doubled down Thursday on vaccines being the most effective way to avoid severe illness from COVID-19 as the New Year rapidly approaches. Chicago Department of Public Health Commissioner Dr. Allison Arwady joined Good Day Chicago to talk about breakthrough cases brought on by the Omicron variant and the city's ongoing fight against the virus. "We're definitely seeing way more breakthrough [cases] part of this is because Omicron seems to move so much faster than the variants we've seen before," Arwady said. "The theory is the virus is still able to get into your nose, where it can be potentially be spread where it can picked up as a breakthrough infection. But the very good news is, and this is important for people to hear, is that those vaccines are protecting beautifully against more severe illness." Over 71 percent of all Chicago residents have received at least one vaccine shot and 64 percent have completed a series of doses, according to city data. The city's COVID positivity rate has ballooned to 16.7 percent, up from 8.6 percent last week. Arwady said it's important to err on the side of caution if you test positive of COVID, regardless of what kind of test you took. "If you get a positive test, if it's a home test or any kind of test, treat that test as positive. Don't go out and try to get four more tests, ‘maybe it’s negative' et cetera. Positive is positive. And if you're having cold or flu symptoms right now in Chicago, it is probably COVID," Arwady said. New CDC guidance released this week shortened the amount of time needed in quarantine from 10 to five days for people who have contracted COVID but are asymptomatic. Arwady said she has reviewed their data and agrees that asymptomatic people are less likely to spread the virus after only five days of quarantine. "Omicron is moving faster," Arwady said. This is part of what we're seeing and understanding that it's really very early, right after folks are infected, that they are most likely to be spreading the virus. I feel very comfortable in someone who is feeling well, especially if they're vaccinated and boosted, that in five days they are very unlikely to be shedding the virus."
Vaccination reduces the probability of new variants - While vaccination reduces the probability of new variants; sadly, there are selfish citizens among us who refuse to be vaccinated for COVID-19. Their belief in a decision only affecting themselves. This belief is false. Failing to get vaccinated increases the chances of infecting others and of hosting a more dangerous variant.The latest data I’ve seen shows that even though vaccinated people can get breakthrough infections, the viral load is lower and the infection clears faster than in unvaccinated infections.This means that with more people being vaccinated, the pool of replicating viruses shrinks. The major source of variation in SARS-CoV-2 is mistakes during viral replication, so the higher the viral burden and the longer the infection, the more viral replication that occurs. Ergo, vaccination not only benefits the vaccinated person and slows the transmission to others, but it also decreases the chance of new viral variants that might be more infectious and/or virulent.
Omicron has enhanced infectivity that is only weakly neutralized by vaccination or prior infection - To compare the effects of different structural gene variants on infectivity, the researchers used the structural genes from the SARS-CoV-2 B.1 strain as a point of reference. They observed that relative to S-B.1, the Delta variant produced VLPs that were less than half as infectious, while the Omicron variant generated VLPs that were more than twice as infectious as the original virus. This result was not in line with previous observations of pseudotyped lentiviral particles, thus showing the increased entry for S-Delta and reduced entry for S-Omicron.The scientists then compared the effects of N, M, or E viral variants on the infectivity of VLPs generated using B.1 genes. These studies were conducted in response to previous research demonstrating that the N gene had a pronounced influence on infectivity and RNA packaging efficiency.Consistent with previous research, the current study also found that the N-Delta and N-Omicron variants generated VLPs with robust infectivity that was higher as compared to both the B.1 and B.1.1 variants.The researchers then evaluated the VLP neutralization capability of antisera collected from 38 individuals four to six weeks post-vaccination or convalescent sera from unvaccinated COVID-19 survivors. The vaccines considered were Pfizer/BioNTech, Moderna, or Johnson & Johnson.Preliminary investigation showed that sera from both Pfizer/BioNTech and Moderna vaccinated individuals yielded high neutralization titers as compared to sera obtained from Johnson & Johnson vaccinated individuals and convalescent patients. Testing the neutralization capacity of each patient's sera against VLPs from B.1, Delta, or Omicron viral variants revealed a pronounced decrease between 15-18-fold in potency against the Omicron variant, while the effect was intermediate for the other variants.The researchers were also interested in determining the effect of the monoclonal antibodies of Casirivimab and Imdevimab against the Omicron variant. Both antibodies showed robust neutralization activity against B.1.1 and Delta VLPs; however, neither showed any activity against Omicron VLPs.The failure of these monoclonal antibodies to neutralize Omicron S could be due to six mutations within the Omicron receptor-binding domain (RBD) including K417N, N440K, G446S, G496S, Q498R, and N501Y.The current study showed that Omicron SC-VLPs have enhanced infectivity and are only weakly neutralized by vaccination, prior infection, or antibody therapeutics. The results presented in this study suggest that the Omicron variant is at least as efficient at assembly and cell entry as Delta.A concerning implication is that the antibody response triggered by vaccination or previous infection could be limited in its ability to neutralize the Omicron variant, at least prior to boosting. Additionally, it is expected that some of the currently available monoclonal antibodies will not be useful in treating Omicron-infected patients.Although the data presented here did not account for T-cell-based immunity by vaccination or prior infection, existing evidence suggests that mRNA vaccine boosters could enhance the likelihood of protection against Omicron infection.
FDA says antigen tests may be less sensitive to omicron - The Food and Drug Administration (FDA) on Tuesday warned that antigen tests may be less effective in detecting the highly contagious omicron variant of COVID-19. "Early data suggests that antigen tests do detect the omicron variant but may have reduced sensitivity," the FDA announced. "The FDA continues to authorize the use of these tests as directed in the authorized labeling and individuals should continue to use them in accordance with the instructions included with the tests," the announcement added. "Antigen tests are generally less sensitive and less likely to pick up very early infections compared to molecular tests." The agency also recommended a follow-up molecular test for people who are "experiencing symptoms or have a high likelihood of infection due to exposure" even if they have tested negative with an antigen test. The FDA's announcement was based on a collaboration with the National Institutes of Health's Rapid Acceleration of Diagnostics program, which studied antigen tests' performance for samples that had the omicron variant. Earlier this month, President Biden announced that his administration would purchase 500 million rapid COVID-19 tests to distribute for free to any American who wants one. “Seeing how tough it was for some folks to get a test this weekend shows that we have more work to do. We’re doing it,” Biden said Monday. Demand for tests has soared with the holiday season and the onset of omicron, making it harder to get tests.
Rapid tests don't always spot Omicron: How to know you can trust result - Rapid tests for COVID-19 are simple to administer and ready within minutes, involving little more than a quick swab of your nostrils dunked into a solution of virus-hunting chemicals.With the federal government promising to distribute half a billion free COVID-19 tests across the country next year, and set to reimburse over-the-counter pharmacy kits starting in January, many people will use free rapid tests next year.But if you don't use rapid tests in the right way at the right time, they won't provide accurate results. And some experts have expressed surprise at how infectious Omicron seems to be, with symptomless, vaccinated people shedding the virus and infecting others days before a rapid test detects their infection.According to early studies from the UK and the US Food and Drug Administration, rapid tests still work. But they have to be taken at the right time and, ideally, performed multiple times over the course of a few days (right when a person's viral load is highest) for the best results. So if your resolution is to test cheaper and smarter in the new year, here's a primer on the best ways to use rapid tests to get the most useful results.
Researchers report loss of antibody potency against SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant --The researchers evaluated the sensitivity of the Omicron variant to neutralization by several monoclonal antibodies currently being used to treat COVID-19 patients, including REGN10933, REGN10987, Ly-CoV016, Ly-CoV555, and S309, the latter of which was a parent antibody of Sotrovimab. Unfortunately, the Omicron variant was resistant to neutralization by REGN10933, REGN10987, Ly-CoV016, and Ly-CoV555, even when the highest concentration of 10 micrograms (μg)/ml was tested. However, S309 was found to retain much of its neutralizing activity against the variant, despite experiencing a two-fold loss in its potency. Antibodies elicited by a prior SARS-CoV-2 infection with the original wild-type strain of the virus exhibited a reduced neutralization against the Omicron variant. This reduction in neutralization was estimated to be 40-fold as compared to that which was achieved against the wild-type SARS-CoV-2 variant. Further, neutralizing antibody responses shortly after infection or vaccination with either the Pfizer/BioNTech BNT162b2, Moderna mRNA-1273, or Johnson & Johnson Ad26.COV2.S vaccines were substantially less potent against the Omicron variant. This reduction in neutralization ranged from 7- to 45-fold across all serum pools. Samples that were obtained from infected-then-vaccinated individuals presented robust neutralizing potency against the Omicron variant. The significant neutralization of variants in these individuals demonstrates the utility of vaccination, particularly in individuals who were previously infected with SARS-CoV-2. ConclusionOverall, the data presented in the current study demonstrates an extensive but incomplete loss of neutralization against the Omicron variant by both natural and vaccine-induced antibodies, as well as current therapeutic monoclonal antibodies. These findings demonstrate that in light of the current situation where Omicron is the dominant circulating strain, previously infected individuals who are unvaccinated cannot necessarily be considered immune against this new strain of SARS-CoV-2. However, vaccination of individuals with a history of COVID-19 provides impressive cross-neutralizing antibody responses that can offer some protection against the Omicron variant.Although the S309 antibody retained some of its neutralization against the Omicron variant, most of the monoclonal antibodies that are currently being used in the clinical setting were unable to neutralize this new strain of SARS-CoV-2. Therefore, the researchers argue that rapid diversification of current therapeutic monoclonal antibodies is needed in order to account for potency losses against the Omicron variant, as well as future variants of SARS-CoV-2.
Booster Protection Wanes Against Omicron Within 10 Weeks, Data Suggests - NYTimes New data from Britain suggests that booster protection against symptomatic Covid caused by the Omicron variant wanes within 10 weeks. There have not yet been enough severe cases of Omicron to calculate how well boosters protect against severe disease, but experts believe the shots will continue to provide significant protection against hospitalization and death.“It will be a few weeks before effectiveness against severe disease with Omicron can be estimated,” the new report, from Britain’s Health Security Agency, noted. “However, based on experience with previous variants, this is likely to be substantially higher than the estimates against symptomatic disease.”In the weeks since Omicron was discovered, multiple studies have suggested that the variant is skilled at evading the antibodies that are produced after vaccination or after infection with the coronavirus.The new report from Britain, which included data on people who had received the AstraZeneca, Pfizer or Moderna shots, confirmed that the vaccines — both the initial two-shot series and booster doses — were less effective and waned faster against Omicron than against Delta.Among people who received two doses of the AstraZeneca vaccine, a booster with one of the mRNA vaccines, made by Pfizer and Moderna, was 60 percent effective at preventing symptomatic disease two to four weeks after the shot. After 10 weeks, however, the Pfizer booster was just 35 percent effective. The Moderna booster was 45 percent effective at up to nine weeks. (The AstraZeneca vaccine is not authorized in the United States, but the Johnson & Johnson shot uses a similar technology.)For people who were given three Pfizer doses, vaccine effectiveness dropped from 70 percent one week after the booster to 45 percent after 10 weeks. Pfizer recipients who received a Moderna booster, on the other hand, seemed to fare better; their vaccine regimen remained up to 75 percent effective at up to nine weeks.The report, which was based on an analysis of about 148,000 Delta cases and 68,000 Omicron cases, also included recent data suggesting that Omicron infections are less likely to lead to hospitalizations than Delta infections. The findings should be interpreted cautiously, the agency noted, because there have still not been many Omicron cases, relatively speaking, and the people who have contracted the variant may not be representative of the broader population.The Biden administration has been encouraging all eligible Americans to receive booster shots as Omicron spreads.In a recent interview on WCBS-AM, a New York radio station, Dr. Anthony S. Fauci, the nation’s leading infectious disease doctor, said that officials were monitoring the effectiveness of mRNA boosters against Omicron.“I do think it’s premature, at least on the part of the United States, to be talking about a fourth dose,” he said. Israel is weighing whether to give a fourth shot to its citizens.Some scientists have warned against a fourth shot, noting that there is not yet evidence that it is necessary and that some immune cells might eventually stop responding to the shots if too many doses are given.
Latest Study Shows Booster Protection Against Omicron Drops 25% After Just 10 Weeks - On Thursday, Britain's Health Security Agency released the third in a string of studies published this week by researchers from South Africa, Scotland and elsewhere, which attempt to quantify how the omicron variant is less threatening to the international public, especially in societies with high-vaccination (or high previous infection) rates. The previous two studies, which we covered earlier this week, purported to show that the new variant is up to 2/3rds less likely to send a patient to the hospital, arguing that the variant is inherently less harmful than earlier strains, setting aside the issue of increased levels of immunity in the population. Additionally, the latest study (courtesy, as we said, of the UKHSA) also offered insights on the limits of vaccines and boosters when it comes to omicron, and, as one might expect given all the strain's mutations, it found that the efficacy of booster shots vs. the new variant begins to wane even more quickly than against earlier variants like delta. To wit, after just 10 weeks after a patients' last booster, immunity has already fallen 15-25%. We wouldn't be surprised to see this data, which support the notion of rapidly waning immunity, eventually be repurposed by the British government, as well as governments in the US, Israel and elsewhere, to justify rolling out the second (then the third, and then the fourth) booster doses to the public - which will then be coerced in getting then via vaccine mandates and "passports" like the green passes that have become popular in Europe. That, of course, would directly contradict the WHO's exhortations for developed countries to spread the vaccine wealth by foregoing boosters and allowing more vaccines to filter through to the developing world, and the 100+ countries where vaccination rates remain low. It's these countries (which include some of the eight southern African countries) that should be prioritized with vaccines before the developed world helps itself to another round of boosters, Dr. Tedros, the head of the WHO, warned following the release of a report by the WHO's advisory committee. The UKHSA also found that patients are between 31% and 45% less likely to attend emergency departments compared to those with delta, and 50-70% less likely to require admission to hospital. These findings were based on data collected from 132 people who were admitted to, or transferred from, emergency departments in English hospitals. Of those, 17 people had received their boosters, 74 people were double vaccinated and 27 were unvaccinated. Eight people had received a single shot, and the vaccination status was unknown for 6 people. Nearly half of those hospitalized were in London alone.The study also found that 14 people have died within 28 days of a diagnosis of omicron, ranging in age from 52 to 96 years old.
The FDA grants emergency use authorization to Pfizer and Merck’s anti-COVID pills - Just before the Christmas holiday, with Omicron’s dominance confirmed, the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) gave emergency use authorization (EUA) to two new oral antiviral medications, Pfizer’s Paxlovid and Merck’s Molnupiravir. These are intended to treat people with mild to moderate COVID-19 disease confirmed by SARS-CoV-2 testing and who are considered high-risk for progression to severe illness, including hospitalization and death. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) are expected to endorse these recommendations soon. First, on December 22, the FDA announced Pfizer’s Paxlovid, a two-drug regimen consisting of two tablets of Nirmatrelvir and one tablet of Ritonavir, taken twice daily for five consecutive days (30 tablets in total). The treatment would be available to patients 12 years and up, by prescription only, after the diagnosis of COVID-19 and within five days from the onset of symptoms.Primary data supporting the FDA EUA comes from the EPIC-HR [Evaluation of Protease Inhibition for COVID-19 in High-Risk Patients] trial that enrolled participants 18 years and older, but was extended to include high-risk pediatric patients. The active ingredient Nirmatrelvir is a protease inhibitor that stops the virus from replicating. The second drug Ritonavir helps slow the metabolism of Nirmatrelvir, allowing it to remain in the body at higher concentrations.Then, on December 23, the FDA granted Merck’s Molnupiravir an EUA with similar parameters for initiating treatment—within five days of symptoms and confirmation of infection with viral testing. A prescription from a medical provider is also required. However, the medication is only authorized for those 18 or up due to the drug’s potential impact on bone and cartilage growth. Like Paxlovid, the treatment has not received approval for use before exposure to SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19, or for patients after exposure if they have not tested positive. The regimen for Molnupiravir requires four tablets taken twice daily for five consecutive days (40 pills total).The two oral antiviral treatments against COVID-19 have different mechanisms of action.Molnupiravir works by introducing errors into the SARS-CoV-2’s genetic code. The active ingredient, a molecule called N4-Hydroxyctyidine (NHC), once it has been incorporated into the virus’s RNA, can undergo a chemical reaction called tautomerization, allowing it to rapidly flip back and forth between two nucleotides, Cytidine and Uracil. When the virus attempts to replicate again, multiple errors are incorporated because of the change in forms of NHC during RNA strand replication, leading to a lethal mutation that leaves the virus unable to infect or reproduce.
Pfizer antiviral pills may be risky with other medications - As the omicron surge pummels a pandemic-weary nation, the firstantiviral pills for Covid-19 promise desperately needed protection for people at risk of severe disease. However, many people prescribed Pfizer’s or Merck’s new medications will require careful monitoring by doctors and pharmacists, and the antivirals may not be safe for everyone, experts caution.The Food and Drug Administration authorized Pfizer’s Paxlovid for mild to moderate Covid in people as young as 12 who have underlying conditions that raise the risk of hospitalization and death from the coronavirus, such as heart disease or diabetes. However, one of the two drugs in the antiviral cocktail could cause severe or life-threatening interactions with widely used medications, including statins, blood thinners and some antidepressants. And the FDA does not recommend Paxlovid for people with severe kidney or liver disease.Because of experts’ concerns about the potential side effects of Merck’s molnupiravir, the FDA has restricted its use to adults and only in scenarios in which other authorized treatments, including monoclonal antibodies, are inaccessible or are not “clinically appropriate.”The Paxlovid cocktail consists of two tablets of the antiviral nirmatrelvir and one tablet of ritonavir, a drug that has long been used as what is known as a boosting agent in HIV regimens. Ritonavir suppresses a key liver enzyme called CYP3A, which metabolizes many medications, including nirmatrelvir. In the case of Paxlovid treatment, ritonavir slows the body’s breakdown of the active antiviral and helps it remain at a therapeutic level for longer.The boosting effect was likely to have been crucial in driving Paxlovid’s high effectiveness in clinical trials.When Paxlovid is paired with other medications that are also metabolized by the CYP3A enzyme, the chief worry is that the ritonavir component may boost the co-administered drugs to toxic levels.Complicating matters, the drugs that pose interaction risks are widely prescribed to people at the greatest risk from Covid because of other health conditions. The medications include, but are not limited to: blood thinners; anti-seizure medications; drugs for irregular heart rhythms, high blood pressure and high cholesterol; antidepressants and anti-anxiety medications; immunosuppressants; steroids (including inhalers); HIV treatments; and erectile dysfunction medications.“Some of these potential interactions are not trivial, and some pairings have to be avoided altogether,” said Peter Anderson, a professor of pharmaceutical sciences at the University of Colorado Anschutz Medical Campus. “Some are probably easily managed. But some we’re going to have to be very careful about.”
Texas runs out of monoclonal antibody treatment effective against omicron - Texas has run out of its supply of monoclonal antibodies, and infusion centers in the state will be unable to offer the treatment until more shipments are sent out in January.Infusion centers in Austin, El Paso, Fort Worth, San Antonio and The Woodlands have all gone through their supply of sotrovimab, the only antibody treatment believed to be effective against the omicron variant, the Texas Health and Human Services Commission said on Monday.The agency said infusion centers in Texas will be unable to offer the treatment until "federal authorities ship additional courses of sotrovimab to Texas in January.""Other monoclonal antibodies have not shown to be effective against the Omicron variant, which now accounts for more than 90 percent of new cases. The infusion centers will continue to offer those antibodies as prescribed by health care providers for people diagnosed with a non-Omicron case of COVID-19," the Texas commission said.A "limited supply" of the recently approved oral antiviral drugs — one from Merck and Ridgeback Biotherapeutics and the other from Pfizer — will soon be available in Texas, the agency added, noting that the supply of these drugs is also regulated by the federal government.Health officials began stockpiling doses of sotrovimab this month after studies showed that it was effective against the highly transmissible omicron variant.On Dec. 17, the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) released distribution determinations for sotrovimab, allocating 2,694 doses for Texas. The department said at the time that the government's supply of the antibody treatment was "extremely limited" and additional units would not be available until the week of Jan. 3. HHS recommended reserving sotrovimab for use in the highest risk outpatients, including patients over the age of 65 and those who are immunocompromised.
US coronavirus: Omicron surge is 'unlike anything we've ever seen,' expert says - An unprecedented spike in Covid-19 cases fueled by the fast-moving Omicron variant is crushing hospitals across the United States, with doctors describing packed emergency rooms as health experts implore New Year's Eve revelers to keep parties small and outdoors to help avert an even worse surge. "It's unlike anything we've ever seen, even at the peak of the prior surges of Covid," Dr. James Phillips, who works in Washington, DC, said Wednesday, when the nation hit a new pandemic high of 300,886 average new daily cases over the prior week, according to Johns Hopkins University data. "What we're experiencing right now is an absolute overwhelming of the emergency departments" in Washington, Phillips, chief of disaster medicine at George Washington University Hospital, told CNN's Jim Acosta. It's a scene playing out across the country as record case counts are reported from New Jersey and New York to Chicago, where hospital bed capacity also is a concern. In Arizona and New Mexico, federal medical personnel have deployed to provide Covid-19 surge support. And in Georgia, six major health systems with recent 100% to 200% jumps in Covid-19 hospitalizations -- with most patients unvaccinated -- joined to publicly urge people to seek coronavirus testing elsewhere so their emergency rooms can focus on those with critical needs. In Louisiana, Covid-19 hospitalizations have tripled in the past two weeks as a new record for cases was set, according to the state. Symptomatic patients have been showing up at Baton Rouge's Our Lady of the Lake Regional Medical Center to get tested, said the chief medical officer, Dr. Catherine O'Neal. "We're seeing an increase in admissions that is startling," she told CNN on Wednesday. Many patients O'Neal sees are unvaccinated, she said. They often have more severe illness with pneumonia and need to be intubated or need high-flow oxygen. Others who haven't had a booster or are only partially vaccinated are suffering with a kind of flu-like illness and are "fragile," she said."They're older, they have heart failure, they have COPD, and they can't handle Covid, even when they're vaccinated," O'Neal said. "Luckily, most of those people are turning around after a couple days and going home, which is a good thing."
US officials recommend shorter COVID isolation, quarantine - ABC News-- U.S. health officials on Monday cut isolation restrictions for asymptomatic Americans who catch the coronavirus from 10 to five days, and similarly shortened the time that close contacts need to quarantine.Centers for Disease Control and Prevention officials said the guidance is in keeping with growing evidence that people with the coronavirus are most infectious in the two days before and three days after symptoms develop.The decision also was driven by a recent surge in COVID-19 cases, propelled by the omicron variant.Early research suggests omicron may cause milder illnesses than earlier versions of the coronavirus. But the sheer number of people becoming infected — and therefore having to isolate or quarantine — threatens to crush the ability of hospitals, airlines and other businesses to stay open, experts say.CDC Director Rochelle Walensky said the country is about to see a lot of omicron cases."Not all of those cases are going to be severe. In fact many are going to be asymptomatic,” she told The Associated Press on Monday. “We want to make sure there is a mechanism by which we can safely continue to keep society functioning while following the science."Last week, the agency loosened rules that previously called on health care workers to stay out of work for 10 days if they test positive. The new recommendations said workers could go back to work after seven days if they test negative and don’t have symptoms. And the agency said isolation time could be cut to five days, or even fewer, if there are severe staffing shortages. Now, the CDC is changing the isolation and quarantine guidance for the general public to be even less stringent.
CDC significantly cuts estimate of omicron's prevalence in US --The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) on Tuesday significantly revised downward the estimate of the percentage of new COVID-19 infections in the U.S. caused by the omicron variant of the virus.According to agency data, omicron accounted for about 59 percent of all U.S. infections as of Dec. 25. Previously, the CDC said the omicron variant comprised 73 percent of all cases for the week ending Dec. 18. But that number has now been revised to 22.5 percent of all cases.The omicron variant is highly transmissible and spreading rapidly, resulting in surges of infections even among people who are vaccinated. However, people who are vaccinated, and especially those who have received booster shots, are well protected against severe disease from the variant, experts say, meaning it poses the greatest risk to the unvaccinated.The new estimates mean that while a majority of new infections are attributed to the omicron variant, the delta variant has not been sidelined, and still accounts for about 41 percent of infections. “Setting aside the question of how the initial estimate was so inaccurate, if CDC’s new estimate of Omicron prevalence is precise then it suggests that a good portion of the current hospitalizations we’re seeing from Covid may still be driven by Delta infections,” former Food and Drug Administration commissioner Scott Gottlieb tweeted on Tuesday. The omicron variant has some ability to evade the protection of vaccines, particularly in causing infection in people who have not been boosted. That means breakthrough infections are becoming more common. While evidence appears to show an omicron infection may be more mild for people who are fully vaccinated, experts say the experience is not likely to be pleasant, and people with such infections should expect to be sick for multiple days.
Experts say COVID-19 cases don't tell whole story --For nearly two years, Americans have looked carefully at coronavirus case numbers in the country and in their local states and towns to judge the risk of the disease. Surging case numbers signaled growing dangers, while falling case numbers were a relief and a signal to let one's guard down in terms of gathering with friends and families and taking part in all kinds of events. But with much of the nation’s population vaccinated and boosted and the country dealing with a new COVID-19 surge from omicron — a highly contagious variant that some studies suggest may not be as severe as previous variants — public health officials are debating whether the nation needs to shift its thinking. Many people are going to get omicron — but those that are vaccinated and boosted are unlikely to suffer dire symptoms. As a result, hospitalizations and deaths are the markers that government officials need to monitor carefully to ensure the safety of communities as the nation learns to live with COVID-19. “This is the new normal,” said Leana Wen, a public health professor at George Washington University and former Baltimore health commissioner. “This is what we will have to accept as we transition from the emergency of COVID-19 to living with it as part of the new normal.” David Dowdy, an epidemiologist at Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, said that Americans all need to shift to focus on hospitalizations over cases as we enter into another year of the pandemic. “I think that we need to start training ourselves to look, first of all, at hospitalizations. I think hospitalizations are a real-time indicator of how serious things are,” he said. Rising case numbers still say something about the disease, and the spikes from omicron are leading to real concerns. Anthony Fauci, the government’s top infectious disease expert, noted on Sunday that even if omicron leads to less severe cases of COVID-19, if it infects tens of millions it will have the potential of straining resources in hospitals. “If you have many, many, many more people with a less level of severity, that might kind of neutralize the positive effect of having less severity when you have so many more people,” he said during an appearance on ABC’s “This Week.” At the same time, the nation must get used to dealing with the coronavirus as it would deal with an annual flu season. It’s a challenge for most parts of American life, from schools and businesses that have to consider worker and student safety, to professional sports leagues that must decide how long someone sits out after a positive test — even if the person is vaccinated and not symptomatic. “Omicron in a way is the first test of what it means to live with COVID-19,” said Wen. “And by that I mean we are going to see many people getting infected but as long as our hospital systems are not overwhelmed and as long as vaccinated people are generally protected against severe outcomes, that is how we end the pandemic phase and switch into the endemic phase.” The omicron strain is so infectious that once the current surge has faded in the United States, it’s likely a large majority of the population will either have been vaccinated against COVID-19 or have been infected, experts say. At that point, the focus should shift away from preventing infection to preventing serious illness, multiple experts said, a message already being echoed in some corners of the White House.
Philadelphia doctor says omicron variant is 'spreading like wildfire' - -- U.S. health officials on Monday cut isolation restrictions for Americans who catch the coronavirus from 10 to five days, and similarly shortened the time that close contacts need to quarantine. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention officials said the guidance is in keeping with growing evidence that people with the coronavirus are most infectious in the two days before and three days after symptoms develop.The decision also was driven by a recent surge in COVID-19 cases, propelled by the omicron variant.One Philadelphia emergency room doctor described the surge during the winter months as the perfect storm for the spread of the virus."It's spreading like wildfire. It's really impressive amounts of transmission," said Dr. Darren Mareniss who works in the ER at Einstein Medical Center.He says vaccinated residents are among the patients coming down with omicron. It can happen certainly but they are protected from hospitalization and death, that's the purpose of the vaccination," said Mareniss.According to the latest data from the CDC collected by the Action News Data Journalism Team, New Jersey is being hit the hardest, averaging over 14,000 cases a day. That's a whopping 220% increase from two weeks prior.Delaware is seeing over a thousand new cases a day, up 67% from two weeks prior.And Pennsylvania has 9,175 new daily cases. That's up 10% from the previous two weeks.In the last two weeks, 15.9% of COVID-19 tests in Philadelphia have come back positive. The city is averaging 1,462 cases of COVID per day over the last two weeks.Mareniss says if there was ever a time for people to be taking every precaution, the time is now. “Many of our hospitals are at capacity and really cannot take any more patients," said Mareniss. Medical professionals say if you're feeling ill, contact your doctor or go to urgent care. If you believe it could be a life-threatening issue, doctors urge you to call 911.
Florida has become a major flash point in the pandemic surge that is ravaging the entire nation, sparked by the more infectious and dangerous Omicron variant of the virus that causes COVID-19. Florida sees alarming growth of COVID-19 infections fueled by Omicron variant - Coronavirus cases in the state rose astronomically in a matter of days, reaching record-breaking heights within just a month of the first Omicron case being detected in the US. Last week, new cases jumped 332.9 percent as more than 125,000 cases were reported in the week ending December 26, compared to just 28,841 cases the week prior. According to Johns Hopkins University data, Florida is ranked ninth among the states where the now-dominant Omicron variant is spreading the quickest. The data in the Johns Hopkins analysis confirmed that Florida is far from the only state that is seeing a spike in cases in the US. In the latest week, US cases increased 47 percent from the week prior, with more than 1.38 million cases reported. Nationwide there are at least 26 states that had more cases in the latest week than they did the week before. Although Florida has just 6.54 percent of the country’s population, it accounted for 8.99 percent of the country’s confirmed cases last week. In the face of the current surge, significant efforts are being made by Republican Governor Ron DeSantis to recklessly downplay the deadly consequences from Omicron while rejecting scientific public health measures. Opposing all restrictions to curb the spread of COVID-19, above all shutting down non-essential businesses and schools, DeSantis declared at a news conference last Friday that “we are not going to indulge in any of the insanity that you see starting to happen again.” Like virtually every governor in the US, there is little difference between policy pursued by DeSantis and the line being dictated by Democratic President Joe Biden, who reiterated in the lead-up to the Christmas festivities that there would be no departure from the “vaccine-only” approach to Omicron. Governor DeSantis sought to present sickness and death from Omicron as the fault of individuals not taking proper health precautions instead of the criminal indifference of the government, which has allowed the virus to spread. On Christmas Day, Florida health officials reported the largest single-day increase in COVID-19 cases since the pandemic began. Approximately 32,850 new coronavirus cases were reported on December 25. This shattered the previous record, which was set just a day before, of 31,758 cases. The previous single-day record was 27,802 cases in August, during the height of the Delta wave in Florida and as children and teachers were being sent back into schools for in-person learning, fueling the growth of community transmission.
DC, Maryland, Virginia report record number of COVID-19 cases Christmas weekend - D.C., Maryland and Virginia all reported record-breaking numbers of coronavirus cases over Christmas weekend. On Monday, each jurisdiction reported the highest seven-day new case averages of any point throughout the pandemic so far, according to The Washington Post. Over 18,500 people in Virginia tested positive for the coronavirus over the three-day holiday weekend and 25 reportedly died from COVID-19. In Maryland, over 15,000 coronavirus cases were reported over the weekend and 5,376 new cases were reported on Monday. About 9,200 new coronavirus cases and two deaths were reported in D.C. from Dec. 23 to Dec. 26, the news outlet noted. The surge of cases is reportedly not just a result of more people seeking to get tested going into the holiday season, but is also reflective of the rapid spread of the omicron variant, according to the Post. The rate of people testing positive for the virus in D.C. is reportedly higher than it has been since 2020, with 16 percent of all tests the District has reported coming back positive as of Sunday. In Virginia, suburban counties have seen a rapid uptick in reported cases. Loudoun county reported 1,062 new cases over the weekend, while Prince William and Arlington counties also saw cases surge into the 1,000s. Over 3,228 cases were reported in Fairfax County over the same period of time, the Post reported. “We’re seeing a lot more sick people, some of whom are coming in because they want to make sure that they’re going to be OK, others want to know whether it’s COVID or the flu,” David Goodfriend, the health director in Loudoun County, told the Post. “But it is keeping our front-line folks very busy.” Gigi Gronvall, a senior scholar in the School of Public Health at Johns Hopkins University, told the Post that the emergence of the omicron variant came at a time when people were most likely to gather indoors without wearing a mask, increasing the potential of exposure. “Some things are part omicron. Some things are part us, our behavior,” Gronvall said, noting the surge of cases during Christmas. “Omicron kind of ups the ante on people getting exposed.” The omicron variant has been reported to induce a milder illness in people who contract it compared to the delta variant of the virus. “I am worried that even if it is milder, just the fact that it appears to be more transmissible will find more vulnerable people to send them into the hospital at higher rates,” Gronvall told the outlet.
Child Covid hospitalizations are up, especially in 5 states - In the last four weeks, the average number of children hospitalized with Covid-19 jumped 52 percent, from a low of 1,270 on Nov. 29 to 1,933 on Sunday, according to an NBC News analysis of Department of Health and Human Services data. In the same time period, adult Covid hospitalizations increased 29 percent, suggesting that pediatric hospitalizations rose at nearly twice the rate. The number of kids hospitalized with Covid has more than doubled in 10 states, as well as in Washington, D.C., and Puerto Rico, according to the analysis. The data does not specify whether the children were vaccinated or vaccine-eligible. But the states that have contributed the most to the rise in pediatric hospitalizations are Florida, Illinois, New Jersey, New York and Ohio. Dr. Paul Offit, a vaccine expert at Children’s Hospital of Philadelphia, told NBC's "TODAY" show on Tuesday that the increase was probably inevitable because of the arrival of winter and the transmissibility of the omicron variant. "It's winter, and this is a winter virus, and this omicron is particularly contagious, so I think you were going to see an increase anyway," said Offit, However, he said, his hospital has seen a lot of kids test positive for Covid without necessarily showing symptoms or getting sick. "We test anybody who’s admitted to the hospital for whatever reason to see whether or not they have Covid, and we’re definitely seeing an increase in cases. However, we’re really not seeing an increase in children who are hospitalized for Covid or in the intensive care unit for Covid," Offit said. Dr. Buddy Creech, a pediatric infectious disease expert at the Vanderbilt University Medical Center in Nashville, Tennessee, said the contagiousness of omicron serves as the latest reminder that children are not immune to Covid. "We saw similar things happen when the delta variant came along," he said. "We had taken for granted that children were relatively under-affected by Covid, and we saw an uptick in the number of children infected and therefore admitted to the hospital with complications." He added that physicians are learning that the omicron variant appears to replicate far better in the nose and upper airways than previous variants, meaning parents should look out for potential symptoms such as a scratchy throat or a runny nose.
US children hospitalized with COVID in near-record numbers - -- The omicron-fueled surge that is sending COVID-19 cases rocketing in the U.S. is putting children in the hospital in close to record numbers, and experts lament that most of the youngsters are not vaccinated. “It’s just so heartbreaking,” said Dr. Paul Offit, an infectious-disease expert at Children’s Hospital of Philadelphia. "It was hard enough last year, but now you know that you have a way to prevent all this.” During the week of Dec. 21-27, an average of 334 children 17 and under were admitted per day to hospitals with the coronavirus, a 58% increase from the week before, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. The previous peak over the course of the pandemic was in early September, when child hospitalizations averaged 342 per day, the CDC said. On a more hopeful note, children continue to represent a small percentage of those being hospitalized with COVID-19: An average of over 9,400 people of all ages were admitted per day during the same week in December. And many doctors say the youngsters coming in now seem less sick than those seen during the delta surge over the summer. Two months after vaccinations were approved for 5- to 11-year-olds, about 14% are fully protected, CDC data shows. The rate is higher for 12- to 17-year-olds, at about 53%. The issue is timing in many cases, said Dr. Albert Ko, professor of epidemiology and infectious diseases at the Yale School of Public Health. Younger children were not approved for the vaccine until November, and many are only now coming up on their second dose, he said. Offit said none of the vaccine-eligible children receiving care at his hospital about a week ago had been vaccinated, even though two-thirds had underlying conditions that put them at risk — either chronic lung disease or, more commonly, obesity. Only one was under the vaccination age of 5. The scenes are heart-wrenching. “They're struggling to breathe, coughing, coughing, coughing,” Offit said. “A handful were sent to the ICU to be sedated. We put the attachment down their throat that's attached to a ventilator, and the parents are crying.” None of the parents or siblings was vaccinated either, he said. The next four to six weeks are going to be rough, he said: “This is a virus that thrives in the winter.” Overall, new cases in Americans of all ages have skyrocketed to the highest levels on record: an average of 300,000 per day, or 2 1/2 times the figure just two weeks ago. The highly contagious omicron accounted for 59% of new cases last week, according to the CDC.
Fast-Spreading Omicron Variant Drives Up Pediatric Hospitalizations in Parts of US - With the fast-spreading Omicron variant now driving new Covid-19 cases up in the United States, public health officials are warning that just as South Africa did in early December, the country is seeing a surge in pediatric hospitalizations related to the disease.The New York Department of Health reported Thursday that Covid-19 hospitalizations among children under the age of 18 began increasing four-fold the week of December 5 through the current week.No child between the ages of five and 11 who was admitted to a hospital with Covid-19 over that period was vaccinated, the department said, and only a third of the children over age 11 had received a vaccine.With children under age five ineligible for vaccination, officials warned families in New York that the best protection for very young children "is to ensure all those around them are fully protected through vaccination, boosters, proper mask-wearing, crowd avoidance, and testing."Along with New York, Ohio, Texas, and Pennsylvania have been hit hard by pediatric hospitalizations. Nationwide, about 800 new hospital admissions of children have been reported every day for the past three days.Nearly 2,000 pediatric patients with confirmed or suspected Covid-19 cases were hospitalized nationally as of Thursday—a 31% increase over 10 days,according to The Washington Post.Data out of the United Kingdom also showed that as of December 19, hospital admissions were at 3.64 per 100,000 for children up to the age of four—three times the rate for children ages five to 14, who are eligible for vaccination.The data follows reports from South Africa earlier this month, which showed that in Gauteng province as of the first week in December, patients under the age of five were the second largest group being admitted to hospitals, after patients over the age of 60.As the Postreported on Wednesday, South Africa's wave of infections from the Omicron variant appears to be waning, giving some hope to public health experts elsewhere. Among children in the U.S., "the vast majority of cases so far have been mild and look a lot like the common cold," reported the newspaper.
Child COVID-19 hospitalizations up nearly 400 percent in New York City --Pediatric COVID-19 hospitalizations in New York City rose by roughly 400 percent in December as the highly transmissible omicron variant spread throughout the stateFrom Dec. 11 to 23, the number of children in New York City hospitalized with COVID-19 rose by 395 percent, WABC-TV reported. The number of cases rose from 22 to 109 in the city, while the number of cases statewide rose from 70 to 184."We are alerting New Yorkers to this recent striking increase in pediatric COVID-19 admissions so that pediatricians, parents and guardians can take urgent action to protect our youngest New Yorkers." said acting State Health Commissioner Mary Bassett.WABC noted that the current rise in cases is particularly impacting unvaccinated children, despite New York's high rate of vaccination. None of the children aged 5-11 who were hospitalized in New York City beginning Dec. 5 were fully vaccinated, according to the station.New York Gov. Kathy Hochul (D) has called on New York parents to get their kids vaccinated before the winter break is over and thousands of students return to school.“We have the supply. We have the capacity. We have the staff in place for every child to be vaccinated who is eligible," said Hochul. Hochul said that officials are aiming to keep schools open and will be deploying measures like sending out 3.5 million COVID-19 tests to schools. According to the New York City Department of Health and Mental Hygiene, around 80 percent of city residents are at least partially vaccinated. About half of children aged between 5 and 17 are also at least partially vaccinated.
NYC's hospitalization rate spikes amid surge in COVID cases - New York City’s hospitalization rate spiked again Tuesday by nearly 30 percent — with more than 60 percent of new patients testing positive for COVID-19, according to official figures. Charts displayed by Mayor Bill de Blasio during a remote briefing from City Hall showed the seven-day average for hospital admissions rose to 4.76 per 100,000 residents on Sunday, up from 3.7 on Christmas Day. The 28.6 percent increase was accompanied by 332 new patients admitted on Sunday, with 61 percent of them coronavirus cases. De Blasio called the new hospitalization rate — announced a day after it more than doubled in two weeks amid the spread of the highly contagious Omicron variant — “very high.” The city also reported 20,200 new COVID-19 cases, which de Blasio called “just a staggering number but one that hopefully will be very very brief.” Data released Tuesday by Gov. Kathy Hochul showed there were 6,173 patients hospitalized statewide for COVID-19 on Monday, up 647 — or 11.7 percent — from Sunday. Monday also saw 1,148 new coronavirus patients admitted to hospitals across the state, an increase of more than 80 percent over the 632 admitted a week earlier, according to the figures. Meanwhile, the statewide positivity rate hit 19.3 percent, with worrisome results for 40,780 of 210,996 people tested.
Massachusetts coronavirus breakthrough cases spike 20,247 last week amid omicron variant - More than 20,000 fully vaccinated people in the state tested positive for coronavirus last week ahead of Christmas, a daily average of nearly 3,000 breakthrough cases as the extremely contagious omicron variant rages across the region. The count of 20,247 breakthrough cases last week represents a 45% spike from 13,919 breakthrough infections during the previous week. Overall case counts in the state have been rising as more people gather indoors. Officials are urging people to get a booster shot as soon as possible to get more protection from the new variant. Overall, 134,565 fully vaxxed people have tested positive for the virus, according to new data from the state Department of Public Health on Tuesday. That’s 2.7% of the more than 5 million fully vaxxed people in Massachusetts.The 134,565 overall cases is a jump of 20,247 breakthrough infections from last week — or a daily average of 2,892 fully vaccinated people testing positive. Last Tuesday’s report had showed an increase of 13,919 breakthrough cases, a daily rate of 1,988 fully vaxxed people testing positive.The week before that was a rise of 11,431 infections — a daily average of 1,633.The previous week’s count was 11,321 cases, a daily rate of 1,617.Breakthrough hospitalizations have been accounting for about 30% of current COVID-19 hospitalizations. Those who are unvaccinated are at a much higher risk for a severe case and hospitalization.
Massachusetts reports 9,228 new coronavirus cases, breakthrough infections spike last week - State health officials on Tuesday reported 9,228 new coronavirus cases, another rise in hospitalizations and a surge in breakthrough infections.The state Department of Public Health reported 20,247 breakthrough cases last week ahead of Christmas, a 45% spike from the previous week as the extraordinarily contagious omicron variant takes over.The 9,228 new daily cases on Tuesday is the second highest one-day total of the entire pandemic, only behind the Christmas Eve record high tally of 10,040 cases. More record-breaking case tallies are expected in the days ahead as the omicron surge rages.The state’s positive test average has also been spiking, and now stands at 11.08%. The daily positive test rate for Tuesday’s report was 13.12%.The state reported 63 new COVID deaths, bringing Massachusetts’ total recorded death toll to 20,138. The 63 deaths are from Saturday through Monday.The seven-day average of deaths is now 21. The peak of daily death average during last winter’s surge was 77 deaths.There are now 1,707 COVID patients in the state, a daily jump of 71 patients. Hospitalizations have been spiking in the last month. The last time the state’s hospitalization total was above 1,700 was in late January.The state reported that 381 patients are in intensive care units, and 250 patients are currently intubated.Of the 1,707 total hospitalizations, 528 patients are fully vaccinated — or about 31%. Those who are unvaccinated are at a much higher risk for a severe case. In the weekly breakthrough report, the state said there have been 3,539 hospitalizations among fully vaccinated people in Massachusetts, which represents 0.07% of those who got their shots. The 3,539 total patients is a one-week increase of 353 fully vaxxed patients. That’s significantly up from the previous weekly increase of 220 fully vaxxed patients.The state has reported 854 breakthrough deaths, or 0.02% of those who are fully vaxxed. That’s a one-week increase of 70 deaths — down from the previous weekly increase of 85 deaths.More than 5 million people in Massachusetts are now fully vaccinated, and more than 5.8 million people have gotten at least one shot. The state reported that 2,015,376 have gotten a booster dose.
U.S. Hit With Record Number of New Covid-19 Cases – WSJ -- Covid-19 cases in the U.S. have continued to climb, reaching a pandemic record on Tuesday of 265,427 cases a day on average, according to a Wall Street Journal analysis of Johns Hopkins University data. The average for Tuesday was about 13,400 greater than the previous high set on Jan. 11, 2021, although there was less testing during the earlier stages of the pandemic. Covid-19 cases in the U.S. increased roughly 60% this week, largely because of the Omicron variant, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Director Rochelle Walensky said Wednesday at a White House Covid-19 briefing. Wednesday’s seven-day daily average of Covid-19 cases in the U.S. hit about 240,400 cases a day, according to the CDC. “In a few short weeks, Omicron has rapidly increased across the country, and we expect it will continue to circulate in the coming weeks,” Dr. Walensky said. As of Wednesday, the seven-day average of hospitalizations for confirmed and suspected Covid-19 was 77,840, according to data from the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services. That’s an increase of about 14% over the past two weeks. The seven-day average of hospitalizations, though increasing, is below both the pandemic peak of 137,510 on Jan. 10, 2021, and the smaller peak of 102,967 on Sept. 4, 2021, during the Delta surge. Many states paused reporting on cases and deaths during the Christmas weekend and plan to do so again for New Year’s. Those blackouts will blur tracking of the full extent of the pandemic’s trajectory until January, when reporting catches up. Still, demand for Covid-19 testing has increased and pushed some providers to the limit. Urgent-care facilities across the country were short-staffed before the pandemic and with employees now falling ill, locations are forced to close, said Lou Ellen Horwitz, chief executive officer of the Urgent Care Association. The group represents more than 4,000 urgent-care centers in the U.S. and abroad. “That’s the blow we can’t absorb,” she said. CityMD, a chain of urgent-care clinics that provides testing in the New York City area, temporarily shut another dozen locations Wednesday after closing 19 last week. Approximately 120 clinics across New York City, Long Island, Westchester County and New Jersey remain open, according to company spokeswoman Joy Lee-Calio. “The spread of Omicron and the demand for testing is stretching our teams very thin,” Ms. Lee-Calio said in a statement. “We may need to temporarily close more sites as this surge continues.”
U.S. Coronavirus Cases Set New Records - - The U.S. record for daily coronavirus cases has been broken, as two highly contagious variants — Delta and Omicron — have converged to disrupt holiday travel and gatherings, deplete hospital staffs and plunge the United States into another long winter.As a third year of the pandemic loomed, the seven-day average of U.S. cases topped 267,000 on Tuesday, according to a New York Times database. The milestone was marked after a year that has whipsawed Americans from a relaxation of rules in the spring to aDelta-driven summer wave to another surge that accelerated with astonishing speed as Omicron emerged after Thanksgiving.. The record came only a day after the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention reduced the number of days that many infected Americans should remain isolated to five days from 10. The C.D.C. changed course as Omicron’s rapid spread has worsened a labor shortage, upending the hospitality, medical and travel industries, among others. The agency did not recommend rapid testing before people left isolation, and experts warned that that omission risked seeding new cases and heaping even more pressure on alreadyoverburdened health systems.The previous U.S. daily cases record was set on Jan. 11, when the seven-day average was 251,232. That was during a catastrophic winter that was far worse than this moment, when over 62 percent of Americans are fully vaccinated. And early evidence, includingsome hopeful reports from South Africa, suggests that Omicron causes milder symptoms than other variants, with vaccinations and boosters helping prevent serious illness and death. United States Covid-19 Hospitalizations. Hospitalizations have been rising, averaging more than 71,000 a day, but remain far below peak levels. While deaths have also been increasing, the daily average of 1,243 is a fraction of the record 3,342 reported on Jan. 26.Nevertheless, Omicron has a considerably easier time than Delta infecting vaccinated people. The coming cascade of patients threatens to overwhelm hospitals just as health care workersthemselves are increasingly infected.A sizable number of patients remain infected with the deadlierDelta variant. On Tuesday, the C.D.C. reported that Omicron cases made up a significantly lower percentage of the overall U.S. caseload than was expected, at roughly 59 percent. And for the week ending Dec. 18, the agency revised down its estimate of 73 percent to about 23 percent, meaning Delta remained dominant until last week.
US sets daily COVID-19 infection record - The U.S. on Tuesday set a single-day record of new COVID-19 infections, with 441,278 new cases, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Infection. The numbers surpass the previous high of about 290,000 cases reported on Dec. 20. That nearly passed the previous daily record of 294,015 set last January, before vaccines were widely available. The seven-day moving average is now more than 240,000 cases a day. The record case number represents the grim reality of the omicron variant, which has proven to be the most transmissible strain of the novel coronavirus the U.S. has seen since the pandemic began. But according to the CDC, the data is incomplete because many testing sites were closed over Christmas and states are still sorting through a backlog of cases. Omicron is responsible for the majority of infections in the country and has sent the numbers skyrocketing, even in parts of the country that are highly vaccinated. Still, people who are up to date on their COVID-19 vaccinations will likely experience milder symptoms, and are at low risk for hospitalization and severe disease. Some health experts think the U.S. needs to start shifting away from focusing on case numbers, and give more significance to hospitalizations and deaths. But there's still about 40 percent of the nation that is unvaccinated, and hospitalizations and deaths are rising, albeit much less among the vaccinated. Rising case numbers still say something about the disease, and the spikes from omicron are leading to real concerns. With many more people getting infected, an additional large number of them are likely to require hospitalizations, putting further strain on the system.
Teens and young adults driving record Covid cases in US, health officials say - As the US is seeing record numbers of daily coronavirus cases driven by the highly transmissible Omicron variant, public health authorities nationwide have said that teens and younger adults are helping fuel this increase. The uptick in Covid-19 among the under-50s coincides with a surge in cases among young children – and a troubling increase in pediatric hospitalizations.The US seven-day average for pediatric hospitalizations increased 58%, to 334, between 21 December and 27 December. The increase in hospitalizations for all age groups was about 19%. Less than 25% of US children are vaccinated, Reuters reported.In Los Angeles county, adults between 18 and 49 accounted for more than 70% of the coronavirus cases recorded between 22 December and 28 December,according to the Los Angeles Times. The case rate per 100,000 people has surged most quickly in that age range.The county saw more than 27,000 new cases on 31 December, dramatically surpassing the winter 2021 daily case average of 16,000. About 25% of all coronaviruses tests in Los Angeles county are positive, according to the newspaper.Broken down further, data show that infection rates in persons from 18 to 29 are more than eight times higher than one month ago. With adults in their 30s and 40s, there are six times as many cases.“Many of the people in this age group are important members of our labor force … and these are also folks that are very likely to be out and about for recreation,” Barbara Ferrer, the county’s public health director, was quoted as saying.“Often this age group doesn’t experience the worst consequences of increased transmission,” Ferrer continued. “And sometimes that’s made it more difficult for individuals to stay attentive to the need to be vigilant about adhering to all of the public health safety measures.”There are concerns that the US economy and healthcare systems could sufferfurther in January not because of imposed restrictions such as lockdowns but because there is so much widespread sickness, including relatively mild cases, that staff shortages further hamper commerce and public services.Meanwhile, the infection rate for children between ages five and 11 has doubled. In nearby Orange county, California, adults from age 18 to 44 are driving Covid infections, according to the Times’ report.Coronavirus cases are increasing dramatically among teens and younger adults in southern Nevada. Eighteen to 24-year-olds saw 44.7 cases per 100,000 as of 24 December, an 131% increase from one week prior, the Las Vegas Review-Journal reported. In Dallas county, Texas, coronavirus cases rose by 76% in one week, according to a 28 December report in the Dallas Morning News. Adults between 18 and 29 comprised almost 25% of these cases. Chicago-area children’s hospitals saw their greatest increase in coronavirus case numbers and hospitalizations this week, according to one report. “We’ve seen our biggest numbers in since the pandemic started actually,” Michael Cappello, vice chairman of Advocate Children’s Hospital, told NBC 5 Chicago.And in the last week of December, one Michigan hospital system reported a 21% increase in coronavirus cases among 21- to 35-year-olds, compared to the preceding week. Michigan hospitals have also reported seeing more patients in younger age groups in December, many of whom are unvaccinated, according to ABC 12 News. “This is also not by coincidence, an age group that remains under-vaccinated in a significant number,” Bob Riney, president of healthcare operations and chief operating officer at Henry Ford Health System, told ABC 12 News. “The vast majority of the Covid patients in our hospitals are unvaccinated.”
At-Home Covid Tests Raise Questions About Accurately Counting Cases - Millions of rapid at-home Covid tests are flying off pharmacy shelves across the country, giving Americans an instant, if sometimes imperfect, read on whether they are infected with the coronavirus. But the results are rarely reported to public health departments, exacerbating the longstanding challenges of maintaining an accurate count of cases at a time when the number of infections is surging because of the Omicron variant. At the minimum, the widespread availability of at-home tests is wreaking havoc with the accuracy of official positivity rates and case counts. At the other extreme, it is one factor making some public health experts raise a question that once would have been unthinkable: Do counts of coronavirus cases serve a useful purpose, and if not, should they be continued? “Our entire approach to the pandemic has been case-based surveillance: We have to count every case, and that’s just not accurate anymore,” said Dr. Marcus Plescia, chief medical officer at the Association of State and Territorial Health Officials, a national nonprofit organization representing public health agencies in the United States. “It’s just becoming a time where we’ve got to think about doing things differently.” There is no comprehensive data on how many rapid tests are used every day, but experts say it is most likely far higher than the number of polymerase chain reaction, or P.C.R., tests, which are completed in a lab and require more time to deliver results, which are reported publicly as aggregate totals. At least one at-home test company has implemented a system to report results directly to the health authorities. And some local health departments have set up systems for people to report results from rapid at-home tests. But with such a voluntary system, it is possible that millions of tests per day are going unreported, estimates Mara Aspinall, an expert in biomedical diagnostics at Arizona State University who is also on the board of directors of OraSure, which makes rapid Covid tests. “We certainly don’t want to discourage testing, but at the same time we can’t leave public health authorities blind,” Ms. Aspinall said. “They rely on this information to take proactive and reactive precautions. It’s a very fine balance.”M
COVID Outbreak Spreads To 89 Cruise Ships, Says CDC --The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) has flagged 89 cruise ships with COVID-19 cases on Tuesday, according to Bloomberg. Since this summer, the cruise ship industry has staged a comeback, but COVID outbreaks on cruise ships in recent weeks (read: here & here) have led some US lawmakers to urge cruise ship operators to halt all sailings.Democratic Senator Richard Blumenthal said cruise ship operators are "repeating recent history as petri dishes of Covid-19 infection.""Time for CDC & cruise lines to protect consumers & again pause—docking their ships," Blumenthal tweeted. The CDC is investigating 86 cruise ships for COVID outbreaks. Of that, 32 are Carnival, 25 Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd, and 15 Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd. The CDC's website said four Walt Disney Co.'s Disney Cruise Line are now under watch. Cruise ships were once lauded as one of the safest vacations due to their strict health policies of only allowing vaxxed adults and their ability to isolate from the rest of the "dangerous" world. However, since we now know that vaccines don't prevent the transmission of the virus - thus questioning their entire purpose - just the opposite is taking place, and cruise companies are getting hammered, just like they did in 2020, confirming there has been virtually no progress in containing covid during the first year of Biden's admin.
U.S. reports 488,000 new daily coronavirus cases, shattering record With a caseload nearly twice that of the worst days last winter, the United States shattered its record for new daily coronavirus cases, a milestone that may not adequately illustrate the rapid spread of the delta and omicron variants because testing has slowed over the holidays. As a second year of living with the pandemic was drawing to a close, the new daily case total topped 488,000 on Wednesday, according to a New York Times database. (The total was higher Monday, but that number should not be considered a record because it included data from the long holiday weekend.) Wednesday’s seven-day average of new daily cases, 301,000, was also a record, compared with 267,000 the day before, according to the database. In the past week, more than 2 million cases have been reported nationally, and 15 states and territories reported more cases than in any other seven-day period. The rise in cases has been driven by the omicron variant, which became dominant in the United States as of last week. So far, however, those increased cases have not resulted in more severe disease, as hospitalizations have increased only 11% and deaths have decreased slightly in the past two weeks. Because COVID-19 tests have been in short supply over the holidays, Wednesday’s numbers still may not fully illustrate the havoc caused by the two variants, which have sent caseloads soaring and have worsened a labor shortage, upending the hospitality, medical and travel industries, among others. Demand for tests has outstripped supply, particularly in the past month as the omicron variant has spread at an astonishing speed. And the holiday season offers its own disruptions to the U.S. case curve, with many testing sites offering limited hours, and labs and government offices not open to report test results. Last year, the national case curve showed pronounced declines after Thanksgiving and Christmas that did not reflect real decreases in new infections. The effect of holidays may be even more noticeable this time around, as illustrated by the Labor Day holiday in September, because states are reporting data less consistently than they did a year ago. Before Tuesday, the seven-day U.S. average had peaked Jan. 11 at 251,232. That was during a catastrophic winter when vaccinations were still relatively new. Today, more than 62% of Americans are fully vaccinated. No matter what the true caseload is right now, the United States has confronted a new set of challenges as the delta and omicron variants have converged. The variants have disrupted holiday travel and gatherings, depleted hospital staffs and plunged the United States into another long winter. Record caseloads have been reported in a laundry list of U.S. cities where vaccination rates are relatively high, including New York, Seattle, San Francisco, Boston, Atlanta Detroit and Washington, D.C.
Michigan breaks record with 25,858 new COVID cases over 2 days – There are staggering COVID numbers across the United States, including here at home where the state is reporting its highest daily number of cases since the start of the pandemic. Michigan reported 25,858 new cases over the past two days -- or an average of just under 13,000, shattering our previous, high that was set in November 2020.“There are two problems right now, the number of cases have gone up, likely as a result of omicron being more contagious in an unvaccinated population. But frankly, because the numbers are going up, the number of sick people, is going up in a proportionate fashion,” said Local 4′s Dr. Frank McGeorge.Local 4′s medical expert Dr. Frank McGeorge is dissecting the latest COVID numbers released from the Michigan Department of Health.“The fact is, the reporting over the recent holiday was low on top of that in the hospital I know I have seen tons and tons of COVID. Our hospital numbers are outrageously, off the charts and so it was really just a matter of playing catch up,” McGeorge said.And Dr. McGeorge said the data is proving just that.Michigan Health Department is reporting record-breaking number of new coronavirus cases. These numbers are from the past two days. So far, more than 25,000 confirmed COVID-19 cases here in the state of Michigan, that’s almost 13,000 per day.“The numbers that we’re seeing today are just catching up, with what we know, what’s been going on, over the last couple of weeks,” McGeorge said.McGeorge said although these numbers are not good, medical experts are expecting things to get worse, especially after the holidays.
Vermont again breaks record for new COVID cases -A day after Vermont shattered its previous record for new COVID infections, the state set yet another record.The state on Thursday reported 1,352 new infections. That surpasses Wednesday’s record of 940 new cases. The previous single-day record before that was 740 cases on Dec. 10.State officials had anticipated a surge in cases during the four weeks following the holidays, brought on in part by the fast-spreading omicron variant.Thursday, Vermont reported three additional deaths, bringing the death toll to 471.There are 56 people hospitalized, 19 of them in the ICU.The state’s percent positive seven-day average hit 7.3%The all-time COVID case count in Vermont stands at 64,447.Record numbers of COVID cases have been reported nationwide as well, and the CDC says those numbers will continue to rise.
CT COVID-19 Test Positivity Hits Record-Breaking 17.8%; More Than 1K - Connecticut's COVID-19 test positive rate jumped from the highest percentage the state had seen at just under 15% on Tuesday to another record-breaking number at 17.8% Wednesday. This is the highest recorded test positivity since widespread testing began earlier in the pandemic. Of the 42,295 COVID-19 tests administered since Tuesday, 7,520 came back positive. Last week, the state's COVID-19 test positive rate hovered just below 10%. Hospitalizations also jumped, with a net increase of 150 since Tuesday. There are now 1,113 people hospitalized with the virus.
Omicron Update: NY Shatters COVID Case Record for 2nd Straight Day, Hospitalizations Rise – New York smashed its single-day COVID case record for the second straight day Thursday, reporting at least 74,207 new positives as the omicron surge stretches hospitals further, according to the latest update from the governor's update. Meanwhile, hospitalizations continue to climb. As recently as the second week of December, Gov. Kathy Hochul assured New Yorkers "this isn't March 2020 or even January 2021," citing admissions totals well below January's peaks near 9,300. Statewide COVID hospitalizations have well more than doubled since then and now total 7,373, with Hochul adding another 606 to the mounting count on Thursday. That's the highest hospitalization total since Feb. 9 and fewer than 600 admissions shy of where the total stood exactly a year ago. It has risen 138% since Dec. 1. A total of 1,020 COVID patients are in state ICUs, an increase of 58 over Wednesday's report. It's the first time since early March the number cracked 1,000. To the governor's point, New York does have more tools at its disposal than it did in January 2021 or December 2020 and certainly an arsenal more than it did at the start of the pandemic. It is deploying them accordingly, Hochul says, as the state faces a "wildly unpredictable" variant that has astonished scientists and health experts alike with its rapid rate of spread and penchant for breakthrough infections. Breakthrough hospitalizations are far rarer, state data shows, a testament to vaccines' ongoing ability to prevent severe COVID-linked disease and death, officials say. That is the critical reason New York officials believe hospitals will be able to ride out the omicron surge, which isn't expected to peak for another month.. Asked earlier Thursday in a TV appearance on CNN if she thought the state would have to rely on National Guard assistance to cover staff shortages in hospitals, New York Department of Health Commissioner Dr. Mary T. Bassett acknowledged the rising hospitalization rates and said the state is closely monitoring them. She also said New York is in regular communication with those troops, but hospital bed capacity across the state is stable for now. The number of hospitals that have had to pause elective procedures to preserve bed capacity is down from November.
Ohio shatters daily COVID-19 case record; active virus-related hospitalizations at highest point – WHIO - Ohio has set a pandemic record with active hospitalizations due to COVID-19 and single-day cases reported Wednesday, surpassing the highest single day totals set previously, according to the Ohio Hospital Association and Ohio Department of Health.The situation prompted Gov. Mike DeWine to request an additional 1,250 Ohio National Guard members to be deployed to hospitals around the area Wednesday, including in our region. DeWine said the hospitalization increases are being driven by Ohioans who are unvaccinated.“The numbers clearly, clearly show that,” DeWine said, adding that 92.5 per cent of those who have been admitted to hospitals with COVID-19 since June are unvaccinated. If you’re vaccinated, DeWine said, “the chances of you ending up in a hospital are pretty darn slim.” “I think it’s important for us not to panic,” DeWine said. On Wednesday, the Ohio Hospital Association reported 5,356 people were actively hospitalized in the state. Previously, the highest single-day report of active hospitalizations came when 5,308 people were hospitalized on Dec. 15, 2020. Over 3,000 of the 5,356 active COVID-related hospitalizations in the state are from the Cleveland area. UC Health President and CEO Richard Lofgren said southwest Ohio is seeing a rise of hospitalizations as well, but not at the rate of the northeast region. “My fear is that we are only a couple weeks behind,” Lofgren said. DeWine activated an initial wave of 1,050 members of the National Guard earlier this month to help fill a “dire” hospital staffing issue as the state and nation continues to deal with a surge of COVID-19 cases and hospitalizations. 150 of those National Guard members were trained nurses, EMTs, and other healthcare personnel that were mainly being sent to hospitals in the northern parts of the state where the higher levels of hospitalizations are happening. The rest of the 900 members were being sent to various hospitals across the state, including in Toledo, Cleveland and Columbus. On Wednesday, the Ohio Department of Health reported an additional 20,320 new COVID cases in the last 24 hours and 592 new hospitalizations. Both those numbers are above the running 21-day average in their respective categories. Statewide, the COVID-19 positivity rate is 25 percent, according to the Ohio Department of Health. “A very serious situation,”
Illinois COVID Update Today: IL reports record-high 30,386 new cases, 87 deaths - (WLS) -- Illinois public health officials reported 30,386 new COVID-19 cases and 87 related deaths Thursday. The number of new cases reported Thursday is the highest in a single day in Illinois, topping the previous record of 21,131 reported on December 24. There have been 2,149,548 total COVID cases, including 27,821 deaths in the state since the pandemic began. The seven-day statewide test positivity rate is 14.4%. Within the past 24 hours, laboratories have reported testing 196,449 new specimens for a total of 44,469,630 since the pandemic began. As of Wednesday night, 5,689 patients in Illinois were reported to be in the hospital with COVID-19. Of those, 1,010 patients were in the ICU and 565 patients with COVID-19 were on ventilators. A total of 19,176,277 vaccine doses have been administered in Illinois as of Wednesday, and 60.49% of the state's population is fully vaccinated. The seven-day rolling average of vaccines administered daily is 46,046. Illinois adopts CDC quarantine guidelines IDPH announced Thursday that it is adopting the CDC's updated guidance to shorten the isolation period for positive COVID cases and exposure. The new guideance decreases isolation for people who test positive from 10 days to 5 days if they do not have symptoms. The guidelines also call for reducing quarantine from 10 days to five days for people in close contact with a COVID-19 case.
Illinois lieutenant governor has COVID as state passes case record - Illinois Lt. Gov. Juliana Stratton announced Thursday that she has contracted COVID-19, while health officials revealed the state has reached more than 30,000 new daily cases of the coronavirus for the first time. The lieutenant governor took to Twitter shortly before 10 a.m. to disclose her positive test, but said she has mild symptoms and intends to recover in isolation. “I’m so relieved to be fully vaccinated and boosted,” Stratton tweeted. “If you have yet to do so, please get vaccinated, your booster and wear a mask. I appreciate your prayers and good vibes!” Her announcement comes as a winter surge has brought the number of COVID-19 cases statewide to unprecedented levels since the pandemic took shape in March 2020.On Thursday, the Illinois Department of Public Health announced there were 30,386 new cases, the highest recorded daily caseload ever in the state. Illinois has also reached a daily average of 18,321 for the week ending Thursday, also a record high. (The average is based on the total for that day and six prior days.)
Kentucky reports record COVID-19 positivity rate — Kentucky has reported a record COVID-19 test positivity rate of 14.46%, Gov. Andy Beshear announced Wednesday. "Folks, it's clear Kentucky is now in a surge from Omicron," Beshear said in a statement posted to social media. "This is the most contagious variant we've seen. Protect yourself and others: get vaccinated and get a booster shot." The previous record positivity rate was 14.16% on Sept. 8, 2021. Beshear announced the first case of the omicron variant in Kentucky on Dec. 17. Kentucky reported 5,530 new coronavirus cases and 21 virus-related deaths Wednesday. A total of 12,118 people have died of the virus in Kentucky.
Louisiana breaks daily COVID record for second day in a row - Louisiana has reported the largest single-day increase in new COVID-19 cases for the second day in a row. On Dec. 30, the Louisiana Department of Health reported 12,467 cases of COVID-19, the highest number in a single day since the onset of the pandemic 659 days ago, in March of 2020. The state added an additional two deaths, edging closer to 15,000 statewide. Another 103 patients were hospitalized, for a total of 762. The day before, the state recorded the previous record of 9,378 cases of COVID-19. “Setting daily COVID records is not where we want to be,” a communications director for the governor’s office tweeted.
Alabama's COVID positivity rate reaches record high, hospitalizations increasing - Alabama’s seven-day average positivity rate — the percent of COVID tests that came back positive — reached a record-high 27 percent on Wednesday, according to the Alabama Department of Public Health, and hospitalizations are increasing rapidly as well, as the more contagious omicron variant continues surging in the U.S. Dr. Bobby Lewis, vice chair of clinical operations for UAB’s Department of Emergency Medicine, told reporters during a Wednesday briefing that every emergency department in Birmingham has been seeing record numbers of patients, and COVID is the driving force. All three of the emergency rooms operated by UAB on a busy day would see about 450 patients, but on Tuesday saw 617 patients, Lewis said. “We’re not to the point of having to call in the National Guard or other things that some other states have seen, but if the rise keeps going that may be a possibility We don’t know when this is going to peak,” Lewis said, explaining that UAB is gearing up staffing and resources to ensure readiness if hospitalizations increase due to gatherings New Years eve. “One way or another we’ll make everything happen, but it certainly is getting to a critical point,” Lewis said. COVID hospitalizations in Alabama on Wednesday reached 720, according to ADPH, which was an 89 percent increase over two weeks. All but one Alabama county is deemed to have high levels of community transmission, according to the department. Alabama’s ICU beds statewide were at 86.3 percent capacity on Wednesday, with 11.7 percent being taken up by COVID patients, according to the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services Alabama’s seven-day average of new daily cases reported to the Alabama Department of Public Health broke 2,000 on Monday for the first time since Sept. 29, reaching 2,100. Nearly 6,000 newly reported cases were added to the state’s official tally on Wednesday. Lewis said that fortunately the omicron variant doesn’t tend to produce as severe an illness in most people, but the sheer number of infections is driving hospitalizations.
Georgia shatters COVID records for 2 days in a row - Georgia set a record number of new COVID cases for two days in a row, and that’s being reflected in Augusta as the ultra-contagious omicron variant of coronavirus sweeps the nation.Two local hospitals and state officials implored the public to save emergency rooms for true emergencies — which don’t include getting tested for coronavirus unless you’re suffering severe symptoms.Because of an influx of people requesting testing, University Hospital spokeswoman Rebecca Sylvester said the hospital’s emergency room “has been overflowing, extending wait times and presenting challenges in caring for true emergencies.” Augusta University Health also urged people to stay away from the emergency room unless they truly need it, as did the Georgia Department of Pubic Health in a statement Tuesday that was echoed by Gov. Brian Kemp.An extremely rapid rise in cases is pushing totals beyond peaks previously set in January.On Wednesday, the Georgia Department of Public Health reported nearly 20,000 new cases. The previous high was reported just Tuesday, more than 13,000.In South Carolina, health officials reported around 3,300 new cases in the Palmetto State on Wednesday. That’s almost 1,000 more compared than the numbers just reported on Christmas Eve.According to the Georgia Department of Public Health, the Augusta area had a total of 119 hospital inpatients with COVID on Wednesday. That was up from 70 a week earlier, but far below the delta variant peak of 398 on Sept. 7. University Hospital had 65 COVID inpatients as of Wednesday morning, down from 69 a day earlier but more than double the 30 it had a week earlier.
Florida breaks daily COVID-19 case record yet again—The state of Florida has broken its daily COVID-19 new case record yet again.Data reported by the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention show a daily caseload of 58,013 on Dec. 29. On Tuesday, Dec. 28, the CDC’s daily case surveillance showed Florida had 46,923 new COVID-19 cases confirmed. T hat number was later upgraded, now recorded as 52,995.The previous record high came on Christmas Eve with 32,874 cases.The data shows Florida has confirmed nearly 4.1 million cases of COVID-19 since the start of the pandemic in 2020.As of Tuesday, Florida had 2,754 people hospitalized which is up 83% over the previous seven days.
Florida breaks single-day COVID case record — The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention on Friday reported more than 75,900 new cases of COVID-19 in Florida.That tally raises the 7-day average daily to 42,600, which is twice as high as it was at the peak of this summer’s surge when the delta variant fueled a surge of infections in the state.Friday’s report marks a single-day record for the number of new cases in Florida. It breaks the record set a day earlier when more than 58,000 cases were reported in the state. The omicron variant of the coronavirus has spiked in Florida and across the nation over the past few weeks. Soaring numbers during the holiday season have sent tens of thousands of people to COVID-19 testing centers across Florida, resulting in long lines in many areas. Three people collapsed while waiting in line at a Tampa testing site on Friday morning. Authorities received three medical calls at the Al Lopez Park testing site, according to Lauren Rozyla, a spokeswoman for the city of Tampa. She said one person left before medics arrived, but two women in their 60s — both with a history of blood pressure issued — fainted while standing in line.
Wastewater testing detects record levels of COVID-19 in Central Florida - Central Florida is recording the highest level ever of COVID-19 viral fragments in its wastewater, further evidence that the omicron variant is more contagious than previous strains and is spreading rapidly. Orange County Utilities detected more than double the level of viral fragments recorded during the peak of the delta surge over the summer, officials said Thursday. The omicron variant, first detected in Orange County in early December, has rapidly become the most dominant version of the virus, according to wastewater testing data. “This is just another meaningful data point that helps to confirm what we are seeing in the case numbers,” said Jason Salemi, a public health researcher at the University of South Florida. “It is the largest and the most rapid increase of cases that we have had in Florida.” Wastewater monitoring has been likened to a Doppler radar early-warning system for COVID-19, picking up infections without symptoms or that were never documented through laboratory testing. Viral fragments are shed through the stool, and higher concentrations in samples are typically followed by higher case numbers. Orange County has monitored its wastewater since May, collecting samples at three plants that serve about 870,000 people. Samples collected Monday showed numbers more than double previous record highs for each service area. For instance, the Eastern Water Reclamation Facility reported nearly 8.3 million gene copies per liter, compared with its record high of about 3 million in July.County officials said the numbers could go even higher when infections from Christmas gatherings start showing up in the wastewater. Additional samples were collected Thursday.“While the rapid increase is concerning, I want to stress to our residents, business owners and guests that there are precautions we can take to protect ourselves and our loved ones,” Orange County Mayor Jerry L. Demings said in a prepared statement. “We should all remain vigilant and continue to wear masks and follow other precautions to limit the spread of the coronavirus as best we can.”The Altamonte Sewer Service Area also detected the highest concentration of COVID-19 viral fragments since it started monitoring in April 2020, according to a summary from Altamonte Springs City Manager Frank Martz. Samples collected on Monday revealed the level of viral fragments is 7,506% higher than July 1, the start of the delta surge, according to the summary.
U.S. Breaks Its Single-Day Case Virus Record For Second Day in a Row - With more than 580,000 cases, the United States shattered its own record for new daily coronavirus cases — beating a milestone it already broke just the day before. Thursday’s count, according to The New York Times’s database, toppled the 488,000 new cases on Wednesday, which was nearly double the highest numbers from last winter. The back-to-back record-breaking days are a growing sign of the virus’s fast spread and come as the world enters its third year of the pandemic.Hospitalizations and deaths, however, have not followed the same dramatic increase, further indication that the Omicron variant seems to be milder than Delta and causes fewer cases of severe illness. In the past two weeks, deaths are down by five percent, with a daily average of 1,221, while hospitalizations increased by just 15 percent to an average of 78,781 per day. Currently hospitalized is the most recent number of patients with Covid-19 reported by hospitals in the state for the four days prior. Dips and spikes could be due to inconsistent reporting by hospitals. Hospitalization numbers early in the pandemic are undercounts due to incomplete reporting by hospitals to the federal government. ∙ Holiday interruptions to testing and data reporting may affect case and death trends.Across the country, airlines canceled thousands of flights, leaving would-be travelers stranded, while others waited in line for hoursto get their hands on a coronavirus test. The high numbers are even more striking considering that experts associate the holiday season with major disturbances in testing and data reporting. The rise of at-home tests could also mean some cases aren’t making into the official count.Last year, the so-called holiday curve showed a major decline in cases after Thanksgiving and Christmas, which underreported the spike in cases that actually took place. It’s likely that this season many more people have the virus than what’s being accounted for; just how many may not be clear for another few weeks.The worldwide surge is being propelled by the new variant, Omicron. And while it is more infectious, research shows that cases with the variant are milder. Vaccinations are already proven to reduce the severity of the virus.The majority of Americans, 62 percent, are fully vaccinated, according to The New York Times’s database. Nearly three-quarters of people have received at least one dose. And 68.8 million of those fully vaccinated have also received a third dose, or booster shot, since Aug. 13, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
US Coronavirus: The US shattered its average daily Covid-19 case record again and experts say numbers will keep climbing – CNN - A day after reporting its highest average daily Covid-19 case number, the US shattered the record Thursday, with an average of 355,990 infections reported every day in the past week, according to Johns Hopkins University.As the latest surge sweeps across the US, pushing cases and hospitalizations to unprecedented levels and altering daily life again, experts warn a turning point could be weeks away."Given the size of our country -- and the diversity of vaccination versus not vaccination -- that it likely will be more than a couple of weeks (until Covid-19 cases peak) ... probably by the end of January," Dr. Anthony Fauci, the nation's leading infectious disease expert, told CNBC. Roughly 62% of the country is fully vaccinated, according to the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Only about 33% of fully vaccinated adults have gotten boosters, which experts say are critical to protect against severe illness from the variants. New York reported more than 76,500 new cases Thursday, the governor's office said, breaking its single-day record. Hospitalizations hit about 8,000, an 8% spike from the day before. Hospitalizations have risen almost 20% since Monday. Arkansas also set a case record, as more than 4,970 residents tested positive in a day, Gov. Asa Hutchinson said Thursday. Maryland, reporting more than 10,870 new cases Wednesday, beat a state record that was set days earlier and reported its highest hospitalization rate this week.New Jersey, meanwhile, identified more than 28,000 new Covid-19 cases via PCR testing, Governor Phil Murphy said Thursday, "roughly quadruple from just two weeks ago, and four times as many cases than during the height of last winter's surge."The number of positive cases is likely higher due to at-home testing, he added.He said that as of Thursday evening, 3,864 Covid-19 patients were being treated across the state, "more than double in just two weeks," the governor said, adding 70% of hospitalized Covid-19 patients are unvaccinated. "Our hospitals right now are at roughly the same numbers they were on the worst day of last winter's surge," Murphy said. "The problem is that right now we don't see any sign of let up." Ohio Gov. Mike DeWine is deploying 1,250 National Guard troops, he said on the day the state reported its highest hospitalization number. Georgia also deployed 200 troops in the same week that six major health systems saw 100% to 200% increases in hospitalizations, Gov. Brian Kemp said. New York is doubling its National Guard deployment to 100 and is preparing for 80 Guardsmen to undergo emergency medical training next month, Hochul said. Things will get worse before they get better, one expert said.
U.S. hospitals brace for continuing surge in covid cases fueled by the omicron variant - U.S. hospitals continue to reel from surging volumes of coronavirus patients as the omicron variant drives a record-breaking flurry of infections in some regions — with medical workers bracing for more misery in the weeks ahead.The New York City health department reported that the seven-day average of confirmed and probable coronavirus cases there has climbed to 17,334 a day, the highest recorded levels of the pandemic, and a roughly tenfold increase from a month ago.“The numbers look huge. But my guess is the true number is much, much higher,” said Craig Spencer, director of global health in emergency medicine at NewYork-Presbyterian/Columbia University Irving Medical Center. “It’s definitely missing a lot of people who are testing positive on rapid tests” and failing to report their results.Louisiana officials reported that the state’s covid-19 hospitalizations have doubled to about 450 patients since last week, with unvaccinated patients accounting for 80 percent of hospitalizations.In Florida, Miami’s Jackson Health System reported that as of Monday morning, 212 people were hospitalized with covid, up from 37 on Nov. 30.And in Texas, Houston Methodist reported Monday that fast-spreading omicron accounted for 94 percent of its sequenced coronavirus cases, with health system leaders describing unprecedented demand for tests.“With test volumes, we’re still setting records,” said S. Wesley Long, the medical director of diagnostic microbiology at Houston Methodist. “We didn’t see a decrease in testing over the weekend and over Christmas, which is pretty unusual.”Meanwhile, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention on Monday halved the recommended isolation period for infected people with no symptoms, from 10 to five days, as officials moved to reduce disruptions from the omicron wave. The change was “motivated by science demonstrating that the majority of SARS-CoV-2 transmission occurs early in the course of illness,” the CDC said in a statement. The variant continued to take its toll on the nation’s air carriers and passengers Monday, when airlines canceled more than 1,000 flights amid a surge in cases among crew members. While many of the cancellations were attributed to weather, the jump in virus cases continued to be a major culprit.In a call with about two dozen governors, President Biden said that the federal government was working to ramp up supplies of tests, protective equipment and other material — but that key responsibilities for combating the omicron surge fell to local leaders. “Look, there is no federal solution. This gets solved at the state level,” Biden told the governors Monday after a request from Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson (R) that the federal government not “stand in the way of state solutions” on treatments and tests.
Daily average of COVID hospitalizations rises above 80,000 for the first time in 3 months, while cases keep breaking daily records - The rise in COVID-19-related hospitalizations is accelerating, with the daily average in the U.S. climbing above the 80,000 mark to a three-month high, as the parabolic surge in new cases continues to set post-pandemic records. While the pace of the climb in hospitalizations is much slower than that for cases, as studies have shown the omicron variant to be less severe than other variants and as more people get vaccinated,U.S. health officials have warned that if new cases keep climbing unchecked, there may still be a lot of severe disease in hospitals to come. And data shows that children are being hospitalized for COVID-19 in record numbers, as vaccination rates in those who are eligible are much lower than that of adults.The seven-day average of hospitalizations rose to 81,847 on Thursday, according to a New York Times tracker. That’s up from 79,084 on Wednesday, up 19% in two weeks and up 75% since since the November low. It has reached the highest level since Sept. 28. . During the week ended Dec. 28, an average of 378 people aged 17 and under were hospitalized with the coronavirus, up 66% from the week before, the Associated Press reported. The previous post-pandemic high was 342 in early September.The latest data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention show that 188.08 million adult Americans are fully vaccinated, or 72.8% of that population. But only about 33% of eligible children, aged 5 to 17 years, are fully vaccinated, according to a MarketWatch analysis of CDC data. Meanwhile, the daily average of new cases leapt to 344,543 on Thursday, NYT data showed. That represents a 14% jump from Wednesday, a near-tripling (up 181%) in two weeks, a four-fold increase since Dec. 1, and was 37% above the previous pandemic peak of 251,232 on Jan. 11.The daily average death toll was 1,221 on Thursday, down 5% in two weeks, but up 34.5% from the November low of 908.The U.S. states showing the highest daily average of hospitalizations per 100,000 people were Ohio at 46 and Delaware at 45, while New York led in cases with 298, followed by New Jersey with 224. Michigan and Tennessee were tied for the most daily average deaths per 100,000 people at 0.96. CDC Director Dr. Rochelle Walensky said this week that compared with vaccinated people, those who are unvaccinated people are 10 times more likely to be infected with the coronavirus, 17 times more likely to be hospitalized and 20 times more likely to die.
California COVID-19 hospitalizations rising faster than ever in pandemic - Bay Area hospitals say they are not overwhelmed yet, but omicron is contributing to a sharp rise in admissions The number of patients with COVID-19 in California’s hospitals is now rising at a faster clip than at any previous time, a surprising development as the pandemic heads toward its third year. The spike comes as the highly contagious omicron variant is driving COVID cases nationally to new daily records, and experts worry the wave may just be arriving in the Golden State. According to a Bay Area News Group analysis, the day-over-day increase in coronavirus hospitalizations in California is steeper than ever, with 451 more people hospitalized Tuesday than the previous day, which was up 346 patients from the day before that. Locally, COVID-19 hospitalizations have spiked most sharply in Contra Costa County — up 76% in the last two weeks. In Orange County to the south, they’ve risen 89%. “This concerns me,” said infectious disease expert John Swartzberg, clinical professor emeritus at UC Berkeley’s School of Public Health. “I’m going into next week feeling less secure than I was previously.” Despite the sharp rise, the total number of COVID-19 hospitalizations in California — about 5,200 — is still only about one-fourth of the number during last winter’s surge. But as the omicron surge began late last month, health experts had hoped California might avoid a sharp bump in hospitalizations as the state saw last winter when vaccines weren’t widespread because the new variant appeared to be causing milder illness than delta. That still may be the case, with shorter stays and less severe outcomes. But the growing numbers indicate that the virus is so infectious and spreading to so many people that even if many only experience mild or zero symptoms, plenty of others are getting sick enough to land in the emergency room. Hospitals, Swartzberg said, will be closely monitoring their available beds, supplies and protective gear and evaluating whether to scale back elective surgeries or visitors. “We’re going through a really dangerous period over the next at least two weeks, maybe three,” he said. Across the country, the numbers are alarming. On Tuesday, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention reported a seven-day average of 277,000 new daily cases. That topped the previous record of more than 250,000 on Jan. 11. But at a White House news conference on Wednesday, Dr. Rochelle P. Walensky, director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, said the rise in hospitalizations and deaths is still lagging behind the record rise in cases. “This could be due to the fact that hospitalizations tend to lag behind cases by about two weeks,” she said, “but may also be due to early indications that we’ve seen from other countries like South Africa and United Kingdom of milder disease from omicron, especially among the vaccinated and the boosted.” Either way, Bay Area hospitals are taking action. John Muir Health, which operates medical centers in Concord and Walnut Creek, is canceling many elective surgeries that require an overnight stay and limiting the number of cases added to cardiac catheterization lab schedules until at least Jan. 4, said spokesperson Ben Drew. Emergency surgeries and procedures will continue.
COVID Cases Fill More City Hospital Beds, Threatening Halt on Elective Surgeries -With hospitalizations for COVID patients rising rapidly, the number of available beds at several city-run hospitals has dropped to levels that could trigger a suspension of elective surgeries.The state Department of Health has the power to impose this restriction on hospitals with low numbers of available beds in regions experiencing a high rate of COVID hospitalizations. Areas averaging more than 4 new COVID patients per 100,000 population each day over a seven-day average trigger the department’s potential intervention.On Sunday New York City passed that threshold, with the average number of new patients with COVID entering city hospitals hitting 4.76 per 100,000 over the previous seven days, according to the city Department of Health and Mental Hygiene.On Monday, that rate rose even higher to 5.48 new COVID patients per 100,000, city data show. Both are well above the 4 new patients per 100,000 cutoff.The state Health Department told THE CITY on Wednesday that so far the influx of COVID patients has not yet triggered the imposition of an elective surgery suspension.Agency spokesperson Erin Silk wrote in an emailed response, “New York City does not currently meet either of the gate criteria to be included in the elective surgery guidance.” She did not specify those criteria.On Tuesday, Mayor Bill de Blasio mentioned the 4.76 rate from Sunday but did not mention the newer data. He conceded that the rate was “very high,” but insisted that hospitals within New York City have the situation under control.“Thank God, because of all the actions that have been taken, all the vaccination, our hospitals are handling the situation well,” he said.Health care workers see the situation as more dire.On Wednesday, nursing union officials expressed concerns that with the rising number of COVID hospitalizations, staffing has again reached inadequate levels reminiscent of spring 2020, when health care workers struggled with overwhelming COVID patient caseloads.“What good is a physical hospital bed if there is not a nurse to take care of the patient occupying that bed?” said Pat Kane, an RN and director of the New York State Nurses Association.“At a time when COVID-19 cases are skyrocketing and our health care system is once again coming under enormous strain due to the highly transmissible Omicron variant, health systems and policymakers should meet the challenge by staffing safely and protecting the frontlines.”Kane said the union is “very concerned that federal and state agencies and hospital administrators are instead cutting corners on staffing levels, infection control, and other health and safety measures exactly when we need to protect health care workers and our patients the most.”The patient squeeze appears to be hitting public hospitals the hardest. The seven-day average bed capacity data for Tuesday show overall, New York City hospitals reported 26% of beds available. In contrast, five of the 11 hospitals run by the city’s Health and Hospitals Corporation register bed availability rates of 15% or lower, state figures show.The most recent single-day figures suggest the situation is growing more urgent.On Tuesday, Coney Island Hospital in Brooklyn dropped to the 7% mark, while Kings County in Brooklyn reported a 9% open bed capacity. That same day Elmhurst in Queens — one of the hardest-hit hospitals when the pandemic first arrived in spring 2020 — hit the “danger zone” mark of 10%.
New York State reports another record day of 85,000+ positive COVID cases Saturday — New York State set another record Saturday for COVID-19 positive cases in a single day. The state Department of Health confirmed 85,476 new COVID cases. That is the highest one-day total since the start of the pandemic. However, testing has increased over the past week, and the omicron variant is considered to be more transmissible than other variants. The surge in hospitalizations continued, with 532 additional patients statewide. The total number of people hospitalized with the virus is up to 8,451. That number has increased by more than 2,900 over the previous six days.
'Crazy' omicron surge could peak soon, but the virus is unpredictable as the pandemic enters its third year - The rapid surge of omicron infections in the United States may be relatively brief, measured in weeks rather than months, according to infectious-disease experts who have been astonished by the speed of the coronavirus variant's spread - and who are hoping this wave ebbs just as quickly.The idea of a rapid peak and swift decline has a precedent in South Africa, the country that revealed the presence of omicron in late November. Cases there spiked quickly and then dropped with unexpected speed after only a modest rise in hospitalizations. An especially transmissible virus tends to run out of human fuel - the susceptible portion of the population - quickly.Some forecasts suggest coronavirus infections could peak by mid-January."Omicron will likely be quick. It won't be easy, but it will be quick. Come the early spring, a lot of people will have experienced covid," William Hanage, an epidemiologist at the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, said in an email Thursday.But this has always been an unpredictable virus, going back to when it first appeared two years ago, on Dec. 31, 2019. The virus had probably been spreading for a month or more, but that was the day infectious-disease experts around the world began hearing by email and text about an outbreak of a mysterious pathogen causing pneumonia-like respiratory infections in Wuhan, China.No one on that day could have known that this pathogen, initially called the "novel coronavirus" and later named SARS-CoV-2, would trigger the most brutal pandemic in a century. And no one today knows when it will be over.Forecasts of how the pandemic will play out have repeatedly been incorrect, to the point that some modelers have stopped trying to make caseload projections four weeks out, instead limiting their forecasts to one week ahead.Because beyond a week, who knows?Forecasts of the current winter wave, in which omicron has come riding in atop an existing delta wave, are somewhat more plausible. Columbia University researchers have a model that projects a peak in cases during the week beginning Jan. 9, with about 2.5 million confirmed infections in that seven-day period - and potentially as many as 5 million.Columbia epidemiologist Jeffrey Shaman said the infection numbers reported in recent days are already at the high end of projections, and the peak could come sooner. Omicron is setting new daily records for infections with the virus. The seven-day average of new, officially confirmed daily cases soared to more than 300,000 Wednesday. Then came the eye-popping Thursday numbers from state health departments and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention - 562,000 new cases, pushing the seven-day average to 343,000.
France Reported Record 100,000 New COVID-19 Cases Amid Omicron Variant — France has recorded more than 100,000 virus infections in a single day for the first time in the pandemic and COVID-19 hospitalizations have doubled over the past month, as the fast-spreading Omicron variant complicates the French government's efforts to stave off a new lockdown. More than 1 in 100 people in the Paris region have tested positive in the past week, according to the regional health service. Most new infections are linked to the Omicron variant, which government experts predict will be dominant in France in the coming days. Omicron is already dominant in Britain, right across the Channel. Meanwhile, a surge in delta variant infections in recent months is pushing up hospital admissions in France, and put ICUs under strain again over the Christmas holidays. More than 1,000 people in France with the virus died over the past week, bringing the country's overall death toll to more than 122,000. President Emmanuel Macron's government is holding emergency meetings Monday to discuss the next steps in tackling the virus. Some scientists and educators have urged delaying the post-holiday return to school, or suggested re-imposing a curfew. But France's education minister says schools should open as usual on Jan. 3, and other government officials are working to avoid measures that would hammer the country's economic recovery. Instead the French government is hoping that stepped-up vaccinations will be enough. The government is pushing a draft law that would require vaccination to enter all restaurants and many public venues, instead of the current health pass system which allows people to produce a negative test or proof of recovery if they're not vaccinated. In neighboring Belgium, the government imposed new measures starting Sunday that ordered cultural venues like movie theaters and concert halls to close. Some venues defied the ban, and thousands of performers, event organizers, and others demonstrated Sunday in Brussels against the decision, carrying signs reading "The Show Must Go On" or "No Culture No Future." They accuse the Belgian government of double standards because it allowed Christmas markets, with their boisterous crowds and mulled wine drinking, to stay open, along with restaurants and bars. Even the scientific committee advising the Belgian government had not asked for the culture industry closures, leaving virologist Marc Van Ranst to ponder that, in Belgium, "gluhwein beat culture." Meanwhile, in the Netherlands, the Dutch government has gone farther than most European countries and shut down all nonessential stores, restaurants and bars and extended the school holidays in a partial new lockdown. In Britain, where the Omicron variant has been dominant for days, government requirements have been largely voluntary and milder than those on the continent, but the Conservative government said it could impose new restrictions after Christmas. The UK hit a new high of 122,186 daily infections on Friday but did not report figures for Christmas. Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland imposed new restrictions Sunday on socializing, mainly limiting the size of gatherings, moves that the restaurant, pub, and nightclub industries have described as economically devastating.
China's local COVID case count driven to 21-month high by Xian outbreak - China reported its highest daily rise in local Covid-19 cases in 21 months as infections more than doubled in the northwestern city of Xian, China's latest pandemic hot spot. The city of 13 million, which entered its fourth day of lockdown, detected 155 domestically transmitted cases with confirmed symptoms for Saturday, up from 75 a day earlier, official data showed on Sunday. That drove the national daily count to 158, the highest since China managed to contain a nationwide outbreak in early 2020. Xian, with 485 local symptomatic cases reported for the 9-25 December period, has imposed heavy-handed measures to rein in the outbreak, in line with Beijing's policy that any flare-up should be contained as soon as possible. The city managed to quickly detect those cases through three rounds of mass testing, He Wenquan, a Xian official, told a press conference on Sunday, adding that high case numbers could persist into the next couple of days. "In order to quickly screen out the infected groups of people, after an analysis by experts, we will step up control measures in key areas, especially places with greater risk level," said He. The local government also announced that it would launch a city-wide disinfection campaign from 6pm local time, urging residents to shut the windows and bring clothes or other items inside from their balconies. Residents may not leave town without approval from employers or local authorities and multiple rounds of mass testing were conducted to identify cases. The city has announced no infections caused by the Omicron variant, although Chinese authorities have reported a handful of Omicron infections among international travellers and in southern China. Including imported cases, mainland China confirmed 206 new cases on 25 December up from 140 a day earlier. No new deaths were reported, leaving the cumulative death toll at 4636. Mainland China had 101,077 confirmed cases as of December 25.
World Sees Record Daily COVID Cases As Less-Lethal Omicron Displaces Delta - The world has just reported a record daily number of new COVID cases as the omicron wave has reached yet another milestone. After a team of distinguished South African epidemiologists alerted the WHO to the advent of omicron while millions of Americans were settling down for their Thanksgiving dinner, experts immediately got to work gathering and analyzing what little data had been collected. One of them included the following hopeful notion: that because omicron appeared less virulent than delta, it might crowd out the more harmful strain and cause an explosion of new cases without the attendant surge in hospitalizations and deaths. The scientists described this theory as a potential silver lining in the virus's nature: as humans' immunity improves dramatically, the virus might be evolving to become more of a nuisance and less of a threat, instead of the other way around. Bloomberg just reported that the number of new omicron cases reported on Monday around the world had surged to a new record. Monday's case tally was 1.44M. That far outpaced the prior record (data excludes one day last December when Turkey backdated a significant number of cases). The more-conservative 7-day moving average, which is intended to smooth over any spikes in the data, is also at a record high thanks to the tidal wave of omicron cases. Millions inside and outside the US are learning first-hand that omicron is the most infectious variant yet, as it cuts through vaccine-induced immunity like butter. It's quickly becoming the dominant strain globally, with the 7-day rolling average standing at 841K, an increase of 49% from a month ago, when omicron was first identified. The latest viral wave caught millions by surprise and forced Americans to cancel Christmas gatherings, much to President Biden's chagrin. The president has since abandoned his promise to "shut down" the virus, conceding instead that it's a problem for the states. Studies suggest that while omicron infects 70x faster than previous strains, the sickness it causes may not be as severe, especially for people who have been vaccinated and received a booster shot (or who have been previously infected). Many fear the ease of transmission and soaring number of cases could still squeeze hospital capacity worldwide, leaving the unvaccinated and anyone who needs medical care for other conditions in the lurch. The good news here, according to Bloomberg, is that daily COVID deaths haven't increased significantly at all: The seven-day rolling average of deaths has hovered at about 7K since mid-October after falling from a delta-driven peak. This hasn't changed at all since the emergence of omicron, even as the total number of infections has increased. Early signs out of southern Africa have shown some "decoupling" between cases and deaths, suggesting that this trend will be more durable than certain doomsayers (Dr. Fauci) have anticipated. As far as when this might end, projections are presently centered around any time between early January and early February.
See Where Virus Cases Are Rising Fastest as Global Count Tops One Million Per Day – NYTimes --As the Omicron variant sweeps across the planet, the global tally of new coronavirus cases has for the first time passed one million per day on average. The previous global case record set last April has already been broken three times this week.The United States, Canada and much of Western Europe are leading the surge, with both regions seeing record-br eaking levels of new coronavirus cases. The daily average number of new cases in the United States on Tuesday was more than 267,000, exceeding the previous all-time peak set in January; Wednesday’s average was higher still, at more than 300,000.New cases in at least 11 European countries — Britain, Cyprus, Denmark, France, Greece, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Malta, Spain and Switzerland — also passed their previous all-time peaks on Tuesday or Wednesday. In France, the daily case average passed 100,000.Cases in Canada have also seen a steep increase in recent days, more than doubling in a week to an average of more than 25,000. And Australia’s cases climbed to an average of more than 12,600 on Wednesday — eight times higher than just three weeks earlier. As dramatic as these case counts are, they are also likely an undercount because of asymptomatic cases, reporting lags due to the holiday season, lack of test availability in many places and at-home tests whose results may not be reported.In the United States, where Omicron is spreading quickly, 16 states and Puerto Rico are at their all-time case records. These include states with comparatively high vaccination rates: Maryland, Massachusetts, New Jersey, New York and Rhode Island, all of which are at least 70 percent fully vaccinated. In addition to being more transmissible generally, Omicron also appears to give rise tomore breakthrough infections.Similarly, some of the European countries currently facing serious surges have among the world’s highest vaccination rates. In Portugal, where 88 percent of the population is fully vaccinated, cases are up more than 200 percent in the past two weeks. Spain, where new cases have more than quintupled in the past three weeks, is 80 percent fully vaccinated.So far, overall hospitalization and death rates have not come close to reaching previous peak levels, though some places are struggling. About 78,000 people in the United States are hospitalized with the virus, compared with over 130,000 at the height of last winter’s peak. The average daily rate of deaths across much of the world also remains lower than the record rates seen earlier in the pandemic. A combination of immunity from vaccines, booster shots and previous infections is most likely at least partially responsible for lower hospitalization and mortality. Encouraging early data also suggests the Omicron variant may be less virulent than previous strains of the virus.
Omicron variant fuels unprecedented surge in Canada’s COVID-19 cases - Due to the combined impact of the highly contagious Omicron variant and the dismantling of most public health measures, Canada is now experiencing far and away its biggest-ever wave of COVID-19 infections. Yesterday Ontario and Quebec recorded over 21,650 new infections, with Quebec reporting 12,833 additional cases and Ontario 8,825. Nationally, active COVID-19 cases stand at 175,000 or more, up by approximately 75 percent from the 103,000 reported by the federal government less than a week ago, on December 23. As grave as the official figures of new COVID cases are, they no longer provide anywhere near an accurate indication of the extent of the virus’ spread. As a result of the federal and provincial governments’ decision to let the virus run rampant, testing capacity across the country has become overwhelmed. Both provincial and local health authorities are now urging people not to get an official PCR-test unless they are showing symptoms or, in some cases, serious symptoms. One Toronto-area emergency room doctor, commenting on the fact that Ontario’s official daily number of new infections has hovered around 10,000 in recent days, told CTV News, “It's been stuck for a while at 10,000 because that’s probably the max that our system can handle in positive results. It’s probably closer to 100,000 if I had to guess.” This assessment is backed up by skyrocketing test positivity rates. Quebec reported Tuesday that over 26 percent of all tests performed in the province in the previous 24 hours came back positive, more than five times the 5 percent threshold beyond which the pandemic is considered to be out of control. Other provinces, including Ontario and Manitoba, have test backlogs running into the tens of thousands. Hospitalizations, which generally lag infection rates by at least two weeks, are also starting to rise. Close to 500 people are currently receiving hospital treatment for COVID-19 in Ontario, with 187 of those in intensive care. On Tuesday Quebec recorded 88 hospitalizations over the previous 24 hours, including an increase of intensive care patients by six, to 115. Under conditions of this mounting health disaster, the principal concern of governments and their public health officials is how to scrap the few remaining remnants of public health protections in order to safeguard corporate profits. They are following the lead of the US Centers for Disease Control (CDC), which took the scandalous decision Monday to cut the isolation period for those infected with COVID-19 in half, from 10 days to just five. The CDC added that those who have received a booster vaccine will not need to isolate at all, even though preliminary evidence indicates that a booster dose only provides 75 percent protection against an Omicron infection and that this protection wanes after just 10 weeks. The CDC’s open flouting of science-based recommendations was underscored by the fact that its announcement came as a direct response to an appeal from airline executives to loosen quarantine rules so their operations could continue unhindered. Quebec’s Health Minister Christian Dubé announced Tuesday that health care workers who have tested positive for COVID-19 will be forced to remain on the job if they are not displaying symptoms, based on new government rules for “managing” and “balancing” “risk.” Dubé said that, with more than 8,000 health care workers already off the job due to COVID-19 infection or pandemic burnout, the only alternative would have been to stop providing non-emergency care. He added that the provincial Coalition Avenir Quebec government, which like its predecessors is committed to relentless austerity, would soon present similar rules so that other COVID-infected “essential workers” can keep working.
Daily COVID-19 infections near 1 million as Omicron wave engulfs Europe -- The working class faces the urgent need to mobilize to impose health policies to stop an unprecedented tidal wave of COVID-19 cases sweeping over Europe. Capitalist governments are proceeding with open contempt for human life. Even as the Omicron variant pushes infections past record levels and threatens to swamp hospitals, they are adopting minimal restrictions and pressing to limit quarantine periods for those sick with or exposed to the virus. Yesterday, France recorded 208,099 new COVID-19 cases, Britain 183,037, Spain 100,760, Italy 98,030, Greece 28,828, and Portugal 26,867. These are all record numbers, that have, moreover, doubled in just the last two to three days. Other countries posting record numbers are Denmark, with 22,023, Ireland 16,428, and Switzerland at 16,760 Wednesday. In Germany, Health Minister Karl Lauterbach said new infections are massively under-reported, and are two or three times higher than the 40,042 cases reported Wednesday—itself a 45 percent increase over Tuesday. Official statistics with over 830,000 new infections in Europe yesterday are gross underestimates: testing capacity has been reached in several countries, which can no longer track the contagion. The test positivity rate is above 10 percent in Germany, Norway, Spain and the Netherlands, and above 5 percent in the UK, France, Italy, Turkey and Denmark. According to the WHO, a test positivity rate of over 5 percent means the virus is infecting far more people than are being diagnosed. On Wednesday, walk-in PCR tests were unavailable in England and Northern Ireland, UK pharmacies reported shortages of lateral flow tests, and the Republic of Ireland’s positivity rate was 45.22 percent. In India’s deadly Delta wave, as hospitals collapsed, this rate peaked at 22.3 percent. World Health Organization (WHO) Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus warned: “I’m highly concerned that Omicron, being more transmissible [and] circulating at the same time as Delta, is leading to a tsunami of cases.” He added that this will place “immense pressure on exhausted health workers and health systems on the brink of collapse.” Operating with open contempt for human life, European governments are abandoning any pretence of limiting the spread of the virus. Only the shutdown of nonessential production and in-person schooling can stop the massive surge in illness now underway and limit the resulting surge in deaths. Yet they are rejecting such measures out of hand and loosening quarantine restrictions, so as to keep enough workers on the job even as massive numbers of them fall ill.
Israel administering 4th Covid vaccine dose as omicron surges — Israel has begun delivering a fourth vaccine dose for people most vulnerable to coronavirus, becoming one of the first countries to do so as it prepares for a wave of infections driven by the omicron variant. Israel, which led a world beating vaccination program in 2020, will administer a fourth dose of the vaccine to individuals with weakened immune systems along with elderly residents and employees in care homes. The rollout of the fourth dose began at Israel’s Sheba Medical Center Friday morning and was administered to heart and lung transplant patients. The country is currently experiencing a new wave of infections fueled by the transmissible omicron variant. There were 4,085 new cases recorded on Thursday, the highest daily count of infections Israel has seen since late September. In response, Israel introduced new restrictions late Thursday in a bid to curb rising infection rates ahead of new year’s eve celebrations. These include a Green Pass, given to fully vaccinated individuals or those who have recently recovered from coronavirus, for outdoor events of more than 100 people and mandatory mask-wearing in outdoor events of more than 50 people. Israel, a country of 9.3 million people, has reported 8,243 deaths from the coronavirus since the start of the pandemic. Most of its population — more than 6.5 million people — has received at least one dose of the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine, and more than 4.2 million Israelis have received two doses and a booster.
Lancet editor who published letter slamming Covid lab leak theory as 'conspiracy' admits he knew about lead author's links to Chinese lab at centre of cover-up for a YEAR before acknowledging conflict of interests - The editor of one of the world's most prestigious medical journals has admitted it took more than a year to declare the conflict of interests of a scientist who denounced the Covid lab leak theory and called anyone who questioned the official Chinese narrative a conspiracy theorist. Dr Richard Horton, editor of The Lancet, said it took 16 months to publish an official conflict of interest statement in which he revealed Peter Daszak had links to the Wuhan laboratory at the centre of the spillover theory. Dr Daszak organised the letter in February 2020, co-signed by 26 other leading researchers which condemned 'conspiracy theories' that Covid did not arise naturally. The move is claimed to have shut down any debate over whether the virus could have escaped from a lab last year. But the zoologist, a Lancastrian who now lives in New York, had ties to Wuhan Institute of Virology stretching back 15 years. During a grilling from MPs on the Science and Technology Select Committee on Wednesday, Dr Horton was forced to defend the 16-month delay before Dr Daszak's important conflicts of interest were finally published in a memorandum in the journal this June. Dr Horton, who was honoured at The Great Hall of the People in Beijing's Tiananmen Square in 2008, to mark an 'unprecedented' collaboration between Peking University and The Lancet, admitted to MPs: 'A hundred per cent, I completely agree, the information that we published in June as an addendum should definitely have been included in the February letter.' But he told the committee it took longer than a year to persuade Dr Daszak to formally record his links with China. The Lancet editor said: 'We ended up having a debate with him about, well, do you have a competing interest or not?' Dr Daszak argued that he was an expert on bat coronaviruses in China, with a view that should be listened to. Dr Horton said: 'It took us over a year to persuade him to declare his full competing interest, which we eventually did in June of this year.'
EPA says it agreed to study PFAS toxicity in NC. Advocates say it didn't really -- On Tuesday, the EPA announced it approved a request that it study health impacts of dozens of "forever chemicals" industrial waste detected in the Cape Fear River. But that is misleading, say members of North Carolina environmental groups who filed a petition seeking the studies.The EPA said that it had granted a petition filed by six environmental groups calling upon the agency to test the toxicity of 54 per- and polyfluoroalykl substances identified in the Cape Fear River basin. Scientists have evaluated the health impacts of very few of the 4,700 known PFAS compounds, but those that have been studied are linked with health impacts ranging from high blood pressure to weakened immune systems to certain kinds of cancers.In its response this week, the EPA said its national testing plan announced in October would cover 30 of the chemicals identified in the Cape Fear basin, with seven of the substances being tested directly under the category-based strategy. Another nine chemicals could be tested later, and the EPA said that 15 of the substances don't meet the testing strategy's definition of PFAS.The response has infuriated petitioners from groups including Cape Fear River Watch, Clean Cape Fear and the NC Black Alliance. It is effectively a denial, they say, and simply includes taking actions that were previously announced.The EPA also did not agree to launch an epidemiological study of PFAS impacts in Southeastern North Carolina, start studying mixtures of the substances that are found in region or immediately develop analytical standards that would help scientists identify many of the compounds in water samples. All are steps that the groups argue are key to understanding both decades of exposure and potential ongoing contamination. "An administration that has such strong ties to the North Carolina community and understands what we've been going through seems to have lost touch... I'm at a loss for finding any rationale for their denial of this petition," said Dana Sargent, executive director of Cape Fear River Watch. She was referring to EPA Administrator Michael Regan, a former secretary of the N.C. Department of Environmental Quality. This is the second time the environmental groups have seen their efforts frustrated by the EPA. In January 2021, the Trump Administration's EPA denied the petition. The groups asked the EPA to re-open the petition in March, and the EPA agreed to do so in September.
New York City chain saws down 1,000 trees to raise park 8-10 feet to address panic over 3mm sea level rise – Protesters ‘watched in horror’ After years of planning by city officials, New Yorkers got a close-up glimpse of the trade-offs inherent in the fight against climate change when crews this month began cutting down the first of a thousand trees targeted for removal in John V. Lindsay East River Park. Since the chain saws arrived two weeks ago, workers have moved quickly to get rid of more than 70 species of mature trees at the popular 46-acre park on the Lower East Side, including 419 oaks, 284 London planes, 89 honeylocusts and 81 cherry trees — along with eventually demolishing a running track, ballfields, lawns, picnic areas, an amphitheater and a composting center. “What’s the point of paying a parks department that cuts down trees?” asked Karen Kapnick, one of a small group of protesters who watched in horror... City officials say the tree removal is just a necessary first step to creating a bigger and better park. More importantly, they say, the remade East River Park will be better able to withstand storm surge even as the waters surrounding lower Manhattan rise in the coming years. Once all the work is finished — projected in about five years — the new park will be raised 8 to 10 feet higher, with new recreational facilities and 1,800 replacement trees representing more than 50 species more suited to survive occasional saltwater floods. The park overhaul, spurred by the destruction of Superstorm Sandy in lower Manhattan nearly a decade ago, is all part of a $1.45 billion flood protection project that backers say befits the nation’s largest city, a massive project that will include the construction of a 2.4-mile system of walls and gates along the East River. “We’re the parks department, so we obviously are very fond of trees and plants,” said Sarah Neilson, chief of policy and long-range planning for the New York City Department of Parks and Recreation. “We also recognize that after Sandy we had to take out 250 trees that died just from that one intense saltwater inundation. They’re not species that were designed for a coastal environment.”
Derecho-Driven Fires Devastate North-Central Kansas Ranches, Cattle Herds - It was too late to escape, so Jim Rathbun, 84 years old, didn't run from the fire. He hid from it. He'd been in his home, just south of Natoma, Kansas, on Dec. 15 when he heard an explosion. He looked out the west windows of his farmhouse and took in a scene almost biblical -- dark clouds of smoke and a wall of advancing fire. There was no escape, so he flung himself to the dirt and crawled beneath an old broken-down feed truck parked in the farmyard. He then curled up under the rear end, and from there, he looked out as hell swept across the northern Kansas prairie, taking with it everything the family had worked decades to build. The destruction of the Rathbun ranch was only a small sliver of the devastation wrought on Dec. 15 by a wild and unprecedented storm system that roared across the Midwest, "a serial derecho," according to the National Weather Service, the only derecho on record to have ever struck the United States in December.The system's fierce winds in many places produced images more akin to 1930 than 2021, towers of black dust being pushed by raging wind. The storm, combined with unseasonably warm and dry weather in the weeks leading up to it, turned into a disaster in north-central Kansas, where it was likely snapped powerlines or dry lightning that sparked wildfires, largely uncontrollable in the conditions.Fueled by gusts that roared to nearly 100 miles per hour -- Category 2 hurricane winds -- half a dozen fires devastated more than 400,000 acres, killing two people, destroying cattle herds, eviscerating ranches, burning more than a dozen homes and delivering a crippling punch to a ranching region in the heart of the country."Derechos don't happen in December, and when they do, they happen on the Gulf Coast, if anything," said DTN Ag Meteorologist John Baranick. "The conditions you need to get a derecho are hard to come by anyway. The easiest way is to get a lot of heat and a lot of moisture, and you just don't get that in one of the coldest months of the year."The massive wind caused damage across the Midwest and fires sparked throughout the region, as well. Much of the worst fire damage was confined to four Kansas counties -- Russell, Osborne, Rooks and Ellis -- an event dubbed the Four County Fire. "That day, Dec. 15, I'll remember it the rest of my career," Baranick said. "It was one of the most bizarre weather events I've ever seen."Monty Morrill won't ever forget that day, either. Morrills have ranched in the area for more than 100 years, but their land hasn't in that span seen anything like what it endured last week. "With this, there was nothing anyone could do other than get out of the way and let it burn. A fire truck was pretty useless in that wind." Still, when Morrill first heard the report of fire and saw the wind switch, he had to try to move his cattle. He tore down the gravel road toward his ranch in his Dodge pickup until the fire was blown over the road and the heat and smoke were too intense. He turned around, but the fire had crossed the road behind him, as well. Fire closed other roads and still more were made impassable by downed powerlines.He'd got within a mile and a half of his herd."There was fire everywhere," he said. "I barely got out."There was nothing that could be done for the cattle. The fire ripped through the grass. Cows tried to shelter in a draw. Not even half survived.He'd first tried to fight his way through the fire at about 3 p.m. He finally made it at 9 p.m.An exact count of cattle killed by the fires is still a long way off, but the Kansas Livestock Association estimates at least hundreds, if not more than a thousand."There were dead cattle all over the place, dead cattle everywhere," Morrill said.
'2021 is pulling out all the tricks': Fish rain from the sky in rare phenomenon in Texas - As 2021 comes to a close, a city in Texas had one last unexpected event: raining fish. Residents in Texarkana – almost 200 miles from Dallas – saw fish fall from the sky on Wednesday and land in their yards or sidewalks, KXXV reported. "2021 is pulling out all the tricks … including raining fish in Texarkana today. And no, this isn’t a joke," The City of Texarkana wrote in a Facebook post. The city said raining fish is a phenomenon called "animal rain" that happens when small water animals such as frogs, crabs or small fish are swept into waterspouts that occur on the surface of the Earth. James Audirsch told WCIA he was working at a used car dealership when he heard loud noises outside. “There was a loud crack of thunder and when we opened up the bay door, I looked outside and it was raining real hard and a fish hit the ground," he told the outlet. Another person posted a video on Twitter captioned, "Yep. It rained fish at my house too." This isn't the first time fish fell from the sky. In 2017, teachers and students at an elementary school in Oroville, California, reported seeing 100 fish land on the school's playground and roof, according to KTVU. "While it’s uncommon, it happens, as evidenced in several places in Texarkana today," the city of Texarkana wrote in the Facebook post. "And please, for the sake of everyone, let’s tiptoe into 2022 as quietly as possible."
Climate change: Lapland reindeer gone astray in search for food - BBC --Herders in Lapland are struggling to locate thousands of reindeer that have run away after warm weather left the food they graze on covered by a layer of ice. Some reindeer have travelled as far as 100km to the south, in search of ice-free lichen they can access under the snow. Herders are having to track them through the forests of northern Finland and Sweden, some even using helicopters. The layer of ice is said to form when an early snowfall melts, or is followed by rain, creating wet snow, which then freezes to a hard layer of ice when temperatures drop. "Reindeer cannot dig the ice as it is hard and so they move away in search of ground where there is just snow that they can remove easily and eat up the lichen below," Reindeer herding is the main livelihood for many Sami indigenous people in the Lapland region that includes Arctic regions of Sweden, Finland, Norway, and Russia's Kola Peninsula. "It has been round-the-clock operation for us - day and night," says Tomas Seva, a 62-year-old herder in north-east Sweden. "We are driving for hours and hours to locate our reindeers and to herd them back, but it has been very difficult in these wintry conditions. So, we are also using helicopters and this is very unusual - and very expensive too." Tomas Seva says about 8,000 reindeer from his and a nearby village have wandered off in recent days and many of them have travelled unusually long distances. Sometimes they have mingled with other herds. "So, separating them from others' herd and bringing them back is a massive challenge, we are really stressed." The Swedish Reindeer Herders' Association says several districts in the north-east of the country have been affected - and the same problem has also occurred across the border in Finland. "The farthest our reindeers have gone that I know is around 100km from our district," says Vili Kurki, 28, a herder from Muonio district of Finland. "Reindeer from the middle part of the district moved to the south, and then in the middle part we saw new reindeer arriving from the north. It was a sort of flow of the animals." Some of the reindeer carry GPS trackers but they don't always work, and even if they do the animal with the tracker may be separated from the rest of the herd. "So, the most reliable [way] is to look for tracks in the snow," says Anna-Karin Svensson of the Swedish Reindeer Herders' Association. "But wind and deep snow and new snow makes it hard." Vili Kurki says it will take days or weeks to find all the missing reindeer and get them home. "All that work means a lot of driving, and when fuel is very expensive, all this costs a lot."
Record snowfall hits western Japan, disrupting traffic and stranding vehicles - Strong winter pressure pattern continues bringing strong winds and dropping heavy snowfall along the coast of the Sea of Japan for the 7th day in a row, disrupting traffic and stranding many vehicles. At least 10 people were injured over the past weekend due to blizzard conditions, with two of them seriously. Residents in the affected regions are urged to refrain from all non-essential outings. In a 24-hour period through early Monday, December 27, 2021, Hikone in Shiga Prefecture saw 68 cm (26.7 inches) of snow while Asago in Hyogo Prefecture received 71 cm (27.9 inches) -- both the most ever since such statistics started being compiled, the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) said.1 During the same period, Minakami in Gunma Prefecture received 70 cm (27.5 inches) and Aizuwakamatsu in Fukushima Prefecture 55 cm (21.6 inches).2 The deepest snowfall was recorded in Aomori with 200 cm (78.7 inches), while snow also accumulated in the cities of Kyoto, Nagoya, and Hiroshima. Heavy snow caused traffic jams, stranded vehicles, caused flight cancelations and disruption to train services in parts of central Japan. More than 3 200 households in the region have been left without electricity, according to Kansai Electric Power. JMA warns that heavy snowfall, as well as icy roads and high waves, could continue through Tuesday, December 29, and cautioned against possible lightning and strong wind gusts due to extremely unstable atmospheric conditions in some places.
Temperature in China's Inner Mongolia drops to -46.9 °C (-52.4 °F) -- Severe cold wave sweeping through northern China dropped the temperature in the city of Hulunbuir, Inner Mongolia autonomous region to -46.9 °C (-52.4 °F) on December 23, 2021. The cold snap continued over the Christmas weekend and into the new week.While ice fog reduced visibility to less than 100 m (328 feet), those brave enough to venture out were driving at a snail's pace because of icy roads, SCMP reports.Temperatures in other parts of northern China plunged to -40 °C (-40 °F), shrouding cities in white smog and prompting major supermarkets to increase supplies of necessities, including fruits and vegetables.Record Snowfall Blankets West Coast -UC Berkeley's snow lab, located near Donner Pass in the northern Sierra Nevada, recorded the snowiest December at 193.7 inches – over 16 feet, smashing the old December record of 179 inches set back in 1970. As much as 10 feet of snow has fallen in parts of the Sierra Nevada since last Wednesday. The latest GFS snow model shows the incredible amount of snow dumped across Sierra Nevadas. There is even more snow slated for next week. The Sierra Nevada snowpack is a critical source of water for California reservoirs. Considering much of the state is in a severe drought. The above-average snowpack is a promising sign for next year. Here are some of the incredible images of the feet of snow from the Sierra Nevada area (pictures provided by LA Times):
Sierra Snow Lab records snowiest December on record, California - A prolonged period of heavy snow falling over the Sierra Nevada mountain range since December 10 dramatically increased its snowpack and by December 27 piled up to 455 cm (193.7 inches) at the UC Berkeley's Central Sierra Snow Laboratory.At the University of California, Berkeley's Central Sierra Snow Laboratory near Donner Pass, 455 cm (193.7 inches) of snow was recorded in December 2021, breaking the old December record of 454.6 cm (179 inches) set in 1970, lab officials said on December 27, adding that snow rates are still heavy.On Monday, December 28, the total monthly snowfall could surpass 508 cm (200 inches), the lab said. It's interesting to note that three of the top 5 snowiest months in the Sierra Nevada occurred during the last five seasons:California statewide, the percentage of average snowpack jumped from 19% on December 10 to 98% on December 17. This made the snow in the central Sierra at 102% of normal for this date. It was just 22% on December 10.With more snow in the forecast, the California Department of Water Resources said on December 27 that the snowpack was between 145% and 161% of normal across the Sierra range.
Western US states hit by record freeze and heavy snow - The US west is facing record-breaking cold temperatures and heavy snow as severe weather sweeps the region from Washington to California. Officials in Oregon and western Washington opened emergency warming shelters as temperatures dropped into the teens (below zero in centigrade) amid an arctic blast that forecasters said would last several days. In California, heavy snow closed ski resorts and shut down travel across much of the Sierra Nevada, the mountainous region along the California-Nevada border. Oregon state officials have declared an emergency and advised residents to avoid unnecessary travel. In Multnomah county – home to Portland – about a half dozen weather shelters were open. Seattle leaders also opened at least six severe weather shelters starting Saturday through to at least Wednesday as the city sees snow and record breaking cold. Sunday’s snow showers blew into the Pacific north-west from the Gulf of Alaska, dumping up to 6in (15 cm) across the Seattle area. The city’s low on Sunday was -6.7C (20F), breaking a mark set in 1948, the National Weather Service reported. Bellingham was -12.8C (9F), which was three degrees colder than the previous record set in 1971. In west Seattle, Keith Hughes of the American Legion Hall Post 160, said his warming centre could welcome about a dozen people – its capacity limited by lack of volunteer staff. “Volunteers, this is a problem for myself as well as everyone else in town, it’s really hard to get with Covid going on,” he said.
Travel Delays Are Expected After Record Snow Tapers in Western U.S. - Winter weather led to canceled flights in Seattle, Minneapolis, Salt Lake City and elsewhere. Meanwhile, snow and downed trees and power lines closed highways in the mountains of northern California and Nevada. Maintenance crews were working to clear still-falling trees and snow from the roads, which were so narrowed in some areas that emergency vehicles wouldn’t be able to get through in the event of a collision, Caltrans reported. Forecasters warned that travel in the Sierra Nevada could be difficult for several days with heavy snow expected from late Tuesday to Wednesday. At Donner Pass in the Sierra, officials at the Central Sierra Snow Laboratory on Monday said recent snowfall had smashed the snowiest December record of 179in, set in 1970. The record is 202.1, making it the third snowiest month on record, but more snow is expected. The National Weather Service warned that the region could face its coldest nights in nearly five years and that “vulnerable and homeless populations could be significantly impacted”. Avalanche danger in the area was considerable, the Sierra Avalanche Center reported. “There are a lot of downed trees going over the pass on I-80. We’re still trying to find a place for the massive amount of snow,” said Mike Powers, a sergeant with the Placer county sheriff’s office. “The past few days we’ve had a lot of vehicles stuck on roadways trying to get into driveways.” Ski resorts across the Lake Tahoe region shut down amid the severe weather. The Northstar California Resort in Truckee closed its mountain operations on Monday because of blizzard conditions. More than 6ft (1.8 metres) of snow has fallen on the ski resort over the past 48 hours, according to the resort’s Facebook post. Search and rescue crews are looking for a missing skier whose last known location was at the ski resort on Saturday morning.The Placer county sheriff’s office said Rory Angelotta, 43, was reported missing over the weekend when he didn’t make it to a Christmas dinner with friends after a trip to the resort. Extreme weather has hampered the search for Angelotta, who has been described as an “experienced backcountry skier”, and the highway closure prevented some searchers from reaching the area. “Unfortunately we can’t defy the laws of physics and nature. It was literally and figuratively a perfect storm,”
Travel Delays Are Expected After Record Snow Tapers in Western U.S. - The worst of a winter storm that brought record-setting snowfall and low temperatures to portions of the Western United States this week appears to be over, but travel delays, frigid temperatures and lighter snowfall are still expected in the coming days. The National Weather Service in Reno, Nev., said early Thursday that accumulating snowfall had largely ended, with a few snow showers possible Thursday morning. “The greater risk will, however, be from refreeze of moisture on roadways, leading to icy travel conditions across the Sierra and Western Nevada,” the Weather Service said, adding that, while major highways had reopened, drivers should “prepare for slow travel conditions across the region for the morning commute.” The Weather Service predicted a chilly introduction to the new year in Nevada, with the “coldest air in nearly five years” expected to arrive this weekend. Forecasters expected temperatures to dip into the single digits for “much of western Nevada” and below zero in some areas of the Sierra Nevada. But little to no more snow was expected, bringing relief to a region that had been battered since the weekend. The Weather Service called for cloudy skies in the Greater Lake Tahoe Area, with a slight chance of snow showers Thursday night and Friday morning and clear skies over the weekend. It would be a relatively calm end to a historically snowy month. The Central Sierra Snow Lab of the University of California, Berkeley, has recorded 210 inches of snow in December, the area’s third-snowiest month in recorded history and its snowiest December. The blizzards wreaked havoc on travel this week, forcing a dayslong closure of an 81-mile stretch of interstate in the Sierra Nevada, and making several major highways and state roads in Northern California impassable. The sprawling winter storm system extended across the West Coast up to Washington, where Seattle broke a record on Monday for its lowest temperature on that particular date. At Seattle-Tacoma International Airport, a low of 17 degrees Fahrenheit on Monday broke a 53-year-old record. Nearly 300 inbound and outbound flights at the airport were canceled as of early Thursday, with dozens more delayed,according to FlightAware, continuing a week of cancellations and delays.Snow in Western Washington on Thursday morning led to whiteout conditions and caused some road closures, but the snow was expected to ease later in the day, the Weather Service in Seattle said. Forecasters expected precipitation to ease by Friday, and highs to climb into the 40s by Saturday, ending a record-setting runof highs in the 30s.In California, the authorities cautioned against nonessential travel in the mountains as road conditions remained perilous.
Alaska sets new December temperature records, U.S. - Temperatures in Alaska are again making rounds in the international news, with several high and low records broken or obliterated. The temperature at Kodiak Tide Gauge, Alaska hit 19.4 °C (67 °F) on December 26, 2021, setting a new December high temperature record for the state. This is 11.7 °C (20 °F) higher than the previous high-temperature record of 7.7 °C (46 °F) set on December 26, 1984, according to the National Weather Service (NWS). Kodiak Airport registered 18.3 °C (65 °F), breaking its previous monthly record by 5 °C (9 °F). The weather balloon launched at the same time confirmed these amazing readings, NWS Alaska Region said. Other high temperature records were set on December 26 across Bering, with Cold Bay registering 16.6 °C (62 °F), breaking its previous daily record high of 6.6 °C (44 °F) set in 1978, 1988, and 1990 by 10 °C (18 °F). It was the warmest temperature recorded there between October 27 and May 7, so monthly records would've been set in November, January, February, March, and April. Meanwhile, low temperatures on December 26 dipped to as low as -21.6 °C (-7 °F) with 'much of the Panhandle hovering in the single digits to teens [°F],' NWS Juneau office reported. "A few new record lows have already been set with more maybe falling this morning," the office said on December 26. A new daily record low temperature was set in the city of Ketchikan with -17.7 °C (0 °F) on December 26, breaking their previous record low temperature for the date of -15 °C (5 °F) set in 1917. Their high temperature was -8.8 °C (16 °F), which is also their record cold high temperature for the date. "The normal high is 4.4 °C (40 °F) and the normal low is 0 °C (32 °F)," said climatologist Brian Brettschneider. Other locations also broke their daily low temperature records, with Juneau forecast office recording -21.6 °C (-7 °F), Haine#2 -18.8 °C (-2 °F), Klawock airport -16.1 °C (3 °F), Pelican -12.2 °C (10 °F), and Thorne Bay -17.7 °C (0 °F).
Alaska faces 'Icemageddon' as temperatures swing wildly --Extreme weather in Alaska that has brought record high temperatures and torrential downpours has left authorities in the far northern US state warning of "Icemageddon". Huge sheets of ice are blocking roads and choking traffic in Fairbanks, Alaska's second largest city, reported the state's transportation department, which has coined the neologism—a play on "Armageddon"—to describe the chilly impasse. "We're experiencing an unprecedented series of winter storms," the department tweeted. Scientists say the unchecked burning of fossil fuels and other human activity is changing the climate, making it more unpredictable and prone to wild swings. Rick Thoman, a weather specialist at the University of Alaska, Fairbanks, called the conditions of the past few days "very unusual". Hours after thermometers on Kodiak Island in the south reached 19.4 degrees Celsius (67 Fahrenheit)—the warmest December temperature ever recorded in Alaska—the interior of the state saw 25 millimeters (an inch) of rain fall in just a few hours, a downpour unseen in decades. Then when temperatures plummeted again, it all froze. The rainstorm was caused by the same weather system that brought the soaring temperatures, transporting warm, moist air from Hawaii to the frigid far north. "This kind of thing—record high moisture content, record warm air—is exactly what we expect, of course, in our warming climate. Unsettled weather was continuing to play havoc with flights in an out of Sea-Tac International Airport in Seattle, with hundreds of flights canceled or delayed this week. In California, snow and persistent rain also continue to cause problems, with localized flooding forcing evacuations in areas around Los Angeles. In the north of the state, the tourist magnet of Lake Tahoe—where forest fires a few months ago caused residents to flee—has been buried in heavy snow, leaving some people cut off. More than five meters of snow have now fallen on parts of the Sierra Nevada mountain range this month, an all-time record, according to the Central Sierra Nevada Snow Laboratory at University of California at Berkeley.
Storm brings up to 9 inches of rain, 18 inches of snow in L.A. area: NWS data -- Southern California has been socked by a winter storm that has brought heavy rain and snow to the drought-ridden region over a three-day period.On Friday morning, the National Weather Service’s Los Angeles office released precipitation totals for L.A. and Orange counties, revealing how much rain and snow the area has received since Wednesday. The highest rainfall total to date in the Los Angeles area is the approximately 9 inches recorded at Cogswell Dam in the San Gabriel Mountains, which is located in the Bobcat Fire burn scar. But many other areas of the counties received several inches of rain.More than 5 inches of precipitation as recorded in the Woodland Hills (7.37), Topanga (6.77), Brentwood (5.87) and Agoura Hills (5.78) areas over the three-day period, weather service data showed. Those were among the top 10 in rainfall amounts from the storm.In Ventura County — also handled by NWS’s L.A. office — over 6 1/2 inches was recorded at the Santa Susan Mountain’s Rocky Peak. More than inches of rain was also measured at Circle X Ranch, an area nestled in the western part of the Santa Monica Mountains, within the mountain’s Recreation Area.Other impressive rainfall amounts were recorded throughout L.A. County, including 5.59 inches in Newhall, 4.97 inches in Bel-Air, 4.66 inches in Hawthorne, 4.33 inches in Culver City, 4.31 inches in downtown Los Angeles and 4.20 inches in Alhambra. A number of areas in Ventura County also received at least three inches of rain over three days, among them Westlake Village (4.84), Oxnard (4.82) Saticoy (4.78) inches), Fillmore (3.62) and Camarillo (3.62 inches).Full rainfall totals from NWS’s L.A. office can be found here.As far as snowfall totals in L.A and Ventura counties, Mountain High — at an elevation of 7,000 feet — had by far the highest two-day amount: 12 to 18 inches, according to the weather service.Mount Baldy had the second-most snow with 8 inches. The measurement was recorded at a slightly lower elevation of 6,500 feet,Mount Wilson and Mount Pinos (along the Ventura County border) tied for third, recording 6 inches apiece. The snowfall totals include data from Wednesday and Thursday and can be found here.
See dramatic change in California’s drought in just 1 week -The U.S. Drought Monitor released new data on California’s drought conditions Thursday – and what a difference a week makes.The map, which includes data as recent as Tuesday, shows remarkable improvement from last week’s conditions. The portion of the state in “exceptional drought,” the most severe category, dropped from 23% to 0.84%.Last week, the majority of California (about 79%) was in “extreme drought,” shown in bright red on the map above. This week, that area has narrowed quite a bit, to a band that runs down the state’s center. Now, only 33% of the state is experiencing “extreme drought” conditions.As storms continued to dump rain on much of Southern California and snow covered mountain peaks Thursday, we could see an even better map this time next week.The Sierra Nevada range has seen more snow than in over a decade, and that’s good news for California’s snowpack. One spot near Lake Tahoe has recorded a whopping 17 feet of snow so far, a record for the month of December.California received even more good news on Thursday when results of the first snowpack survey of the winter were released, revealing that the state’s snow water content was 160% of normal for the time this year. Once it melts in the late spring and summer, the snowpack provided about one-third of the state’s water supply.“Obviously we are off to a great start,” said Sean de Guzman, the manager of the Snow Surveys and Water Supply Forecasting section of California’s Department of Water Resources.But, he urged caution, noting that promising starts in December don’t always lead to more wet weather through the winter. He also noted that the vast majority of California’s reservoirs remain below average. “We still have a long way to go for our wet season,” de Guzman said. “And we need more and more of these storms to keep coming through.”
Extreme rainfall hits Brazilian state of Bahia, causing catastrophic damage --Weeks of heavy rainfall over the northeastern Brazilian state of Bahia (population 15 million) caused massive floods and damage, leaving at least 18 people dead, nearly 500 000 affected, and 35 000 displaced. Parts of the state, including capital Salvador, have already received 6 times their normal December rainfall. Heavy rains started affecting the state in early November but the situation worsened in recent days, when two dams collapsed, flooding already heavily affected areas. The Igua dam on the Verruga river near the city of Vitoria da Conquista, collapsed on December 25, forcing authorities to evacuate residents, mainly in the town of Itambe. All residents of Vitoria da Conquista were forced to evacuate due to collapse. The second dam collapsed in Jussiape, some 100 km (62 miles) north of Igua, on December 26, bringing more alerts for residents to move to safer ground.1 Further toward the coast in Itabuna (population 200 000), fire brigade teams rescued residents trapped in their homes in the downtown area that was underwater, Reuters reported. Residents said the level of the Cachoeira river that runs through the town was the highest in 50 years. At least 18 people have been killed since the floods started, more than 430 800 affected and 35 000 forced to evacuate their homes. By December 26, the number of municipalities that declared a state of emergency rose to 72, of which 58 are in crisis, the Bahia civil protection agency said.2 Until December 25, the number of municipalities on the list was 25. In the state capital of Salvador, weather officials said December rainfall has been six times greater than the average. Salvador's average rainfall in the month of December is 51 mm (2 inches).
Death toll from Brazil flooding rises in Bahia's 'worst disaster' ever (Reuters) - The death toll from floods hammering northeast Brazil rose to 20 on Monday, as the governor of Bahia state declared it the worst disaster in the state’s history and rescuers braced for more rain in the coming days. Much of Bahia, home to about 15 million people, has suffered from intermittent flooding for weeks, after a long drought gave way to record rains. Flooding in some areas intensified late on December 24 and early on December 25 after a pair of dams gave way, sending residents scrambling for higher ground. Rescue workers patrolled in small dinghies around the city of Itabuna, in southern Bahia, plucking residents from their homes, including some who escaped through second-floor windows. Bahia Governor Rui Costa said on Twitter that 72 municipalities were in a state of emergency. “Unfortunately, we’re living through the worst disaster that has ever occurred in the history of Bahia,” he wrote. Manfredo Santana, a lieutenant-colonel in Bahia’s firefighting corps, told Reuters that emergency workers had rescued 200 people in just three nearby towns. The heavy currents of the swollen Cachoeira River complicated rescue efforts. “It’s difficult to maneuver even with jet skis,” he said. “Rescue teams had to retreat in certain moments.” Bahia’s civil defense agency said on Monday afternoon that 20 people had died in 11 separate municipalities. Newspaper O Globo, citing a state firefighting official, said that authorities are monitoring an additional 10 dams for any signs they may collapse. The scrutiny of public infrastructure and urban planning comes just a couple years after the collapse of a mining dam in neighboring Minas Gerais state killed some 270 people. In televised remarks, Costa, the Bahia governor, attributed the chaotic scenes in part to “errors that have been committed over the course of years.”
Typhoon Rai death toll rises to 397 in the Philippines - Two weeks after its initial landfall, the Philippines is still reeling from the consequences of Typhoon Rai, one of the most destructive typhoons in recent years. The official death toll rose to 397 people on Tuesday, and could continue to rise in the coming days. The storm, known locally as Odette, struck the archipelago on December 16 and 17, packing wind speeds of 195km/h and laying waste to numerous southern and central regions. At least 60 people remain missing amid prolonged and delayed efforts to clear the wreckage. Hundreds of others are injured, with many unable to access medical treatment. The devastation wreaked by the typhoon has reportedly displaced around 662,000 people, according to the United Nations (UN). While over 200,000 residents have sought refuge with relatives and friends, 418,000 are currently sheltering in evacuation camps stationed throughout the affected areas. In a recent report, the UN warned of the potential for widespread COVID-19 transmission in these camps: “Children are starting to catch fever, colds, and coughs. Physical distancing and use of protective equipment such as masks are no longer observed in many evacuation centres.” The Office of Civil Defense revealed that 4 million people were impacted by the typhoon, in 430 cities and towns where about 482,000 homes were damaged or destroyed. However, the true scale of the destruction remains unknown, as severe damage to communication lines, as well as roads, ports, and airports, has hindered the flow of information from the storm-ravaged regions. Early estimates suggest that 23,000 hectares of rice were damaged, causing around 12,750 farmers to suddenly lose their livelihoods. In Cebu province, home to the country’s second-largest metropolitan region of Cebu City, 24 of its 44 municipalities were severely damaged, with 80 to 90 percent of infrastructure destroyed. Daily reports have emerged on social media over the past two weeks from displaced residents on their struggle to survive in the storm’s aftermath. Photos and videos have depicted whole villages washed away in three-metre floods of sewage and power lines. Along with widespread cuts to internet and phone signals, basic supplies such as food, petrol, medicine, and clean drinking water are either in short supply or completely lacking for tens of thousands.
More hurricanes likely to slam Connecticut and region due to climate change, says study - More hurricanes are likely to slam Connecticut and the region as the planet continues warming due to greenhouse gas emissions, according to a study led by Yale University researchers. Released Wednesday, the study says Hurricane Henri, which made landfall in August as a tropical storm on the Connecticut/Rhode Island border, and 2020′s subtropical storm Alpha, the first tropical cyclone observed making landfall in Portugal, may portend an expansion of destructive storms into mid-latitude regions. Tropical cyclones, hurricanes and typhoons, typically are more intense and destructive in lower latitudes, where much of the. In the U.S., Florida has been hardest hit. But the study's authors said the violent tempests could migrate northward and southward in their respective hemispheres due to warming caused by human-made emissions. "This research predicts that the 21st century's tropical cyclones will likely occur over a wider range of latitudes than has been the case on Earth for the last 3 million years," said study author Joshua Studholme, a physicist in Yale's department of Earth and Planetary Sciences. In August, Connecticut dodged the worst of Henri only to be hit with the remnants of Hurricane Ida. Damaging winds and torrential rain felled trees and flooded streets and basements. Floodwaters killed a state trooper. Thousands lost power. The predicted northward expansion of such violent storms comes as water levels in the Atlantic Ocean and Long Island Sound keep rising. Fueled by melting glaciers thousands of miles away, the Sound could rise by as much as 20 inches by 2050, enough to submerge parts of Groton's shore and cause regular flooding in residential neighborhoods and along key roads. So an increase in hurricanes would be a double whammy for Connecticut and the region since storm surge, a rise in the sea caused primarily by strong winds pushing water onshore, causes much of the flooding and damage during a hurricane or tropical storm. The authors of the study on tropical cyclones, however, say scientists disagree on some aspects of the relationship between such storms and climate change. Much remains unclear about how sensitive the destructive storms are to the planet's average temperature. There is no agreement among scientists about whether the total number of storms will increase or decrease as the climate warms, or why the planet experiences roughly 90 such events each year, study authors say. "There are large uncertainties in how tropical cyclones will change in the future," said Alexey Fedorov, a professor of oceanic and atmospheric sciences at Yale. "However, multiple lines of evidence indicate that we could see more tropical cyclones in mid-latitudes, even if the total frequency of tropical cyclones does not increase, which is still actively debated. Compounded by the expected increase in average tropical cyclone intensity, this finding implies higher risks due to tropical cyclones in Earth's warming climate."
Scientists Identify a Previously Unknown Type of Storm, Called an ‘Atmospheric Lake’ -A new type of weather condition has been observed, existing primarily in one particular part of the world: compact, slow-moving, moisture-rich pools. Researchers are calling these 'atmospheric lakes'.This unique type of storm occurs over the western Indian Ocean and moves towards Africa. Unlike most storms – created by a vortex – the lakes are produced by water vapor concentrations that are dense enough to produce rain.These atmospheric lakes are similar to atmospheric rivers, narrow bands of dense moisture. However, the new type of meteorological phenomenon is smaller, slower moving, and detaches itself from the weather system that creates it."These vapor bodies sometimes drift west over the east African coast, bringing rain to that semi-arid area," explains an abstract on the research, presented at the 2021 Fall Meeting of the American Geophysical Union. Existing as they do in an equatorial region where the wind speed is often very low or negligible, these atmospheric lakes are in no rush. In an analysis of five years of meteorological data, the longest-lasting storm stayed in the air for 27 days in total. Over the five years, 17 atmospheric lakes lasting longer than six days were discovered, within 10 degrees of the equator. It seems that these lakes can happen in other regions too, where they sometimes turn into tropical cyclones.
Thousands of residents flee as Colorado wildfires burn hundreds of homes - Tens of thousands of Coloradans driven from their neighborhoods by wind-whipped wildfires anxiously waited to learn what was left standing of their lives Friday after the flames burned an estimated 580 homes, a hotel and a shopping center. At least one first responder and six other people were injured in the blazes that erupted outside Denver on Thursday morning, unusually late in the year, following an extremely dry fall and amid a winter nearly devoid of snow so far. Boulder County Sheriff Joe Pelle, who gave the early damage estimate, said there could be more injuries — and also deaths — because of the intensity of the fires, propelled by winds that gusted up to 105 mph (169 kph). “This is the kind of fire we can’t fight head-on,” Pelle said. “We actually had deputy sheriffs and firefighters in areas that had to pull out because they just got overrun.” Mike Guanella and his family were relaxing at their home in the town of Superior and looking forward to celebrating a belated Christmas later in the day when reports of a nearby grass fire quickly gave way to an order to leave immediately. Instead of opening presents, Guanella and his wife, their three children and three dogs were staying a friend’s house in Denver, hoping their house was still standing. “Those presents are still under the tree right now — we hope,” he said. By first light Friday, the towering flames that had lit up the night sky were gone, leaving smoldering homes and charred trees and fields. The winds had died down, and light snow was in the forecast, raising hopes it could prevent flare-ups. The neighboring towns of Louisville and Superior, situated about 20 miles (32 kilometers) northwest of Denver and home to a combined 34,000 people, were ordered evacuated ahead of the fires, which cast a smoky, orange haze over the landscape. The two towns are filled with middle- and upper-middle-class subdivisions with shopping centers, parks and schools. The area is between Denver and Boulder, home to the University of Colorado. Residents evacuated fairly calmly and in orderly fashion, but the winding streets quickly became clogged. It sometimes took cars as long as 45 minutes to advance a half-mile. Small fires cropped up here and there in surprising places — on the grass in a median or in a dumpster in the middle of a parking lot — as gusts caused the flames to jump. Shifting winds caused the skies to turn from clear to smoky and then back again as sirens wailed.
Colorado fire already most destructive in state’s history (KDVR) — In a matter of hours, the Marshall Fire burning south of Boulder destroyed more homes than any wildfire in Colorado state history.High winds pushed the flames east, engulfing entire subdivisions and forcing tens of thousands of Coloradans to leave their homes. According to Boulder County Sheriff Joe Pelle, more than 580 homes were burned as of Thursday evening. That count doesn’t include the homes that have burned in Louisville and other parts of Boulder County. It also doesn’t account for the businesses that have been impacted by the fire.While the Marshall Fire may not be the largest in state history, when the damage is completely assessed, it could prove to be twice as destructive as the Black Forest Fire that burned in Southern Colorado nearly a decade ago.In 2013 in El Paso County, 511 homes were destroyed in the Black Forest Fire. Another 28 homes were damaged.Two people died in the Black Forest Fire: Marc Herklotz, 52, and his wife, 50-year-old Robin Herklotz, according to the El Paso County coroner.The two were in their garage apparently preparing to leave when they died. The Black Forest Fire burned more than 14,000 acres.In 2020 in Grand County, 366 homes were destroyed in the East Troublesome Fire. It was one of several wildfires that year, and the second-largest wildfire in state history.The East Troublesome Fire burned 193,812 acres. Only the Cameron Peak Fire burned more at 208,913 a cross on the other side of Rocky Mountain National Park.
Colorado wildfire took hold 'in blink of an eye': governor - At least 500 homes were thought to have been destroyed as a blaze took hold of the town of Superior, just outside Colorado's biggest city Denver. A fast-spreading wildfire that tore through several Colorado towns—laying waste to entire neighborhoods "in the blink of an eye," according to the governor—had largely burned itself out Friday, with heavy snow expected to douse any remaining embers. At least 500 homes were thought to have been destroyed as the blaze took hold of the town of Superior, just outside the state's biggest city Denver, forcing tens of thousands of people to flee but there were no deaths reported so far. Shocking aerial footage showed whole streets as little more than piles of smoking ash, destruction that appeared almost total but somehow left one or two homes incongruously untouched. "This was a disaster in fast motion... over the course of half a day. Many families having minutes to get whatever they could—their pets, their kids—into the car and leave," state Governor Jared Polis said. "Just as in the blink of an eye." Downed power lines are believed to have sparked grassfires in the tinder-dry landscape that were then fanned by winds gusting at more than 100 miles (160 kilometers) an hour on Thursday. At least 33,000 people in the towns of Superior and Louisville were told to flee, many doing so with little more than the clothes on their backs. Boulder County Sheriff Joe Pelle told a press conference on Friday that he had seen swathes of the town utterly destroyed, while other areas had been spared. "We won't have final numbers until late tonight or tomorrow, but we are fully expecting this to be 500 or more homes that were lost," he said. "I would not be surprised if it's 1,000."
Heavy snows to hit Colorado after wildfires destroyed hundreds of homes - A powerful storm system bringing heavy snowfall was blowing into Colorado on Friday, a day after devastating wildfires fueled by hurricane-force winds destroyed hundreds of homes and forced tens of thousands to flee. Up to a foot of snow is expected in some parts of the state, in a blizzard that should help to extinguish the fires but could also present new "life-threatening" challenges to travel in some areas, according to the US National Weather Service. "Snow will be falling across the majority of the area at midnight." At least 33,000 people in the towns of Superior and Louisville were forced to find shelter on Thursday, officials said, as flames tore through areas desiccated by a historic drought. Authorities estimated that close to 600 homes had been lost. "It is complete devastation ... We witnessed houses just exploding right before our eyes," Superior mayor Clint Folsom told CNN on Friday. But the arrival of cooler weather and at least temporarily lighter winds had slowed the most destructive wildfire early Friday, allowing local authorities to lift evacuation orders outside of Boulder County, the Denver Post reported. Smoke was still rising from several parts of Superior early Friday, after wind gusts ignited fires in several discrete spots, sometimes leaving blackened homes next to intact residences still decorated with Christmas lights. At least 1,600 acres (650 hectares) have burned in largely suburban Boulder County northwest of Denver. The blaze claimed a hotel, shopping center and apartment complex in Superior, where a mandatory evacuation order remained in place early Friday. "We know that approximately 370 homes in the Sagamore subdivision... have been lost. There's a potential of 210 homes lost in Old Town Superior," Boulder County Sheriff Joe Pelle told a news conference on Thursday. Colorado media outlets reported that at least six people were hospitalized with injuries, though there were no immediate reports of deaths.
Eruption at Cumbre Vieja over after 85 days and thousands destroyed buildings, La Palma --The eruption at Cumbre Vieja volcano in La Palma, Canary Islands, Spain was declared officially over on December 25, 2021 (VEI 3).
- With 85 days of eruptive process and 1 219 ha (3 012 acres) of land covered, this is now La Palma's longest eruption in 375 years of the island's historical data. The second-longest eruption was that of the Tajuya volcano in 1585, which lasted 84 days and covered 480 ha (1 186 acres) of land.
- About 7 000 people, of the islands 83 000, were forced to evacuate.
- Luckily, no injuries or deaths have been directly linked to the eruption.
The island now has a new volcanic building, 200 m (655 feet) high on its base (or about 1 100 m / 3 600 feet above sea level), with at least 6 craters. Lava has covered about 1 219 ha (3 012 acres) of the island and the average estimated thickness is 12 m (39 feet), with a maximum of 70 m (229 feet). The maximum temperature measured in lava has been 1 140 °C (2 084 °F). The subaerial area of the lava deltas is 48 ha (118 acres) -- 43.46 ha (107 acres) for the southern delta and 5.05 ha (12.4 acres) for the northernmost delta. The estimated underwater surface of the lava deltas is over 21 ha (51.8 acres).The eruption started on September 19, spewing rivers of lava that destroyed 2 988 buildings, including homes, schools, churches, and health centers, according to the Copernicus EMS satellite-based estimation. According to the Cadastre, 1 676 buildings were affected, of which 1 345 residential, 180 agricultural, 75 industrial, 44 for leisure and hospitality, 16 for public use, and the remaining 16 for other uses. Cadastre data shows 370 ha (914 acres) of affected crops - 228.69 (565 acres) of banana fields, 68.05 ha (168 acres) of vineyards, and 27.43 ha (67.8 acres) of avocados. To these data, we must add 90 ha (222 acres) of isolated crops. In addition, 412 ha (1 018 acres) of banana trees have been covered by ashes, 128 ha (316 acres) of vineyards, and 84 ha (207 acres) of avocados. Banana plantations account for nearly 50% of the island's economy. 73.8 km (45.8 miles) of roads have been affected, 10.8 km (6.7 miles) of streets, 2.1 km (1.3 miles) of crossing, and 49.9 km (31 miles) of other roads.
Surface deformation near Fagradalsfjall volcano resembles pre-eruption state, Iceland -- Latest InSAR images near the Fagradalsfjall eruption site in Reykjanes Peninsula, Iceland show clear signs of deformation over the period from December 20 to 26, 2021. The deformation seen now is very similar to the deformation observed at the end of February 2021 when a dike intrusion was starting near Fagradalsfjall. The earthquake swarm that started on December 21 near Fagradalsfjall has continued over the Christmas holidays, the Icelandic Met Office (IMO) reports.1 Around 3 000 earthquakes have been detected every day since the swarm started, with most of the activity near Fagradalsfjall volcano but earthquakes have also been detected near the town of Grindavík and lake Kleifarvatn. The earthquakes near Grindavík and Kleifarvatn are interpreted as triggered earthquakes due to increased pressure caused by a dike intrusion near Fagradalsfjall. On Christmas Eve, December 24, three earthquakes above M4 were detected near Grindavík, with the largest one M4.8. The activity is episodic with periods of very intense earthquake activity. There are currently no signs of magmatic intrusions in other places. The swarm started just one day after the eruption that began in this area on March 19, 2021, was declared officially over. It was the longest eruption in Iceland in more than 50 years.2 Latest InSAR images show clear signs of deformation over the period from December 20 to 26. The deformation seen now is very similar to deformation observed at the end of February this year when a dike intrusion was starting near Fagradalsfjall. This InSAR data supports data from GPS measurements showing deformation in the same area.
How to Survive a Killer Asteroid -LET’S SAY FOR a moment you want to camp alongside the dinosaurs.. So you spin the dials on a time machine to 66.5 million years ago and you travel back to the late Cretaceous period. And just as you settle down on one particular evening, there’s a brand-new star in the northern hemisphere sky. The star won’t flash, flare up, or blaze across the horizon. It will appear as stationary and as twinkly as all the others. But look again a few hours later and you might think this new star seems a little brighter. Look again the next night and it will be the brightest star in the sky. Then it will outshine the planets. Then the moon. Then the sun. Then it will streak through the atmosphere, strike the earth, and unleash 100 million times more energy than the largest thermonuclear device ever detonated. You’ll want to pack up your tent before then. And maybe move to the other side of the planet.The day the Chicxulub asteroid slammed into what is now a small town on Mexico’s Yucatán peninsula that bears its name is the most consequential moment in the history of life on our planet. In a prehistoric nanosecond, the reign of the dinosaurs ended and the rise of mammals began. Not only did the impact exterminate every dinosaur save for a few ground-nesting birds, it killed every land mammal larger than a raccoon. In a flash, Earth began one of the most apocalyptical periods in its history. Could you survive it? Maybe.If you make camp on the right continent, in the right environment, and you seek out the right kind of shelter, at the right altitudes, at the right times, you might stand a chance, says Charles Bardeen, a climate scientist at the National Center for Atmospheric Research who recently modeled the asteroid’s fallout for the Proceedings of National Academy of Sciences. Of course, even if you are on the opposite side of the world at the time of impact—which is the only way you can hope to make it out alive—he recommends you act quickly. As soon as you hear its sonic boom (don’t worry—you’ll be able to hear it from the other side of the world), get yourself to high ground and find underground shelter. Immediately. You might think this sounds a bit alarmist. If you’re on the opposite side of the world—which you should be—why do you need to duck and cover from a city-sized rock landing 10,000 miles away? But you wouldn’t be the first to make the mistake of underestimating an asteroid. The cataclysmic risk posed by asteroids wasn’t well understood until World War I. Before then, most astronomers operated under the blissful naivete that massive impacts like Chicxulub were simply not possible.
Greta Thunberg says it's 'strange' Biden is considered a leader on climate change - Climate activist Greta Thunberg said it was "strange" that President Biden is considered a leader in climate change and questioned his role in tackling the climate crisis.In an interview with The Washington Post published Monday, Thunberg was asked if she was inspired by Biden or any world leaders fighting global warming and climate change. "If you call him a leader," Thunberg replied."I mean, it’s strange that people think of Joe Biden as a leader for the climate when you see what his administration is doing."Thunberg, 18, has been the face of the youth climate strike, which has turned into a global movement since the teen began protesting in Sweden in 2018. In various appearances around the world, Thunberg has called for world leaders to do more to fight climate change, arguing her generation will see the most damaging effects of global warming if nothing is done.Most recently, Thunberg spoke out against the actions taken at COP26, the climate change conference held last month in Glasgow, Scotland. World leaders agreed on a plan to cut global carbon dioxide emissions 45 percent by 2030 and pour more money into developing countries to fight climate change.But Thunberg criticized world leaders for not doing enough, calling it a "PR event." She told the Post the conference "doesn't mean anything unless that actually leads to increased ambition and if they actually fulfill those ambitions."In March, Thunberg implored the Biden administration to "treat the climate crisis like a crisis." “They have said themselves that this is an existential threat, and they’d better treat it accordingly, which they are not," she added. "They are just treating the climate crisis as [if] it were a political topic among other topics.”On Monday, Thunberg said the U.S. was still not doing enough, saying the country will increase fossil fuel infrastructure in 2022. "The U.S. is actually expanding fossil fuel infrastructure. Why is the U.S. doing that?" she said. "It should not fall on us activists and teenagers who just want to go to school to raise this awareness and to inform people that we are actually facing an emergency."
China to cut new energy vehicle subsidies by 30% in 2022 (Reuters) - China will cut subsidies on new energy vehicles (NEVs), such as electric cars, by 30% in 2022 and withdraw them altogether at the end of the year, the Finance Ministry said on its website on Friday. The ministry had said in April 2020 that NEV subsidies would be cut from 2020 to 2022 by 10%, 20% and 30%, respectively. For NEVs for public transport, subsidies would be cut by 10% in 2021 and by 20% in 2022. China, the world's biggest auto market, has set a target for NEVs, including plug-in hybrids and hydrogen fuel cell vehicles, to make up 20% of auto sales by 2025. Global automakers such as Volkswagen AG VOWG_p.DE , General Motors Co GM.N , Toyota Motor Corp 7203.T and Tesla Inc TSLA.O are ramping up electric vehicle production in China. NIO NIO.N said on Friday that buyers of its ES8, ES6 and EC6 vehicles who had paid a deposit on or before Dec. 31, 2021, and are taking delivery of their purchases before March 31, 2022, can still enjoy the subsidies under the 2021 plan. Any shortfall under the 2022 policy would be borne by the Shanghai-based firm, it said. The ministry also said China would tighten up supervision of NEV safety issues to prevent accidents. Industry body China Association of Automobile Manufacturers estimated earlier in December that sales of NEVs in China would grow by 47% to 5 million in 2021.
China Mandates State Companies To Reduce Energy Consumption -- Chinese authorities have asked that state companies reduce their energy consumption and carbon dioxide emissions by 2025 compared to 2020 levels as part of China’s plan to have its CO2 emissions peak before the end of this decade.State-controlled firms in China must slash their energy consumption per 10,000 yuan ($1,570) of output value by 2025 to 15 percent below the levels seen in 2020, Reuters quoted the State Assets Supervision and Administration Commission (SASAC) as saying in a statement on Thursday.Carbon dioxide emissions at state-held firms per 10,000 yuan of output value must also decline by 2025, by 18 percent compared to 2020, the asset supervision body said.China, which targets to reach carbon neutrality by 2060, has an interim goal to see its CO2 emissions peak before 2030. Earlier this year, Chinese authorities ordered heavy energy-intensive industries such as oil refining, steelmaking, aluminum production, and cement manufacturing to make sure that more than 30 percent of their production capacity met stricter standards of energy efficiency.Despite the commitments to reduce emissions and large investments in renewable energy capacity, China continues to rely on coal as its economy recovered from the 2020 COVID-induced slump faster than expected. China continued to add coal capacity in 2020, much to the indignation of climate campaigners.The economic rebound from the pandemic is taking coal power generation to a new record high this year, with global coal demand likely hitting another new high next year, undermining net-zero efforts, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said in its annual Coal 2021 report earlier this month.According to the agency, the 2020 collapse in coal demand turned out to be smaller than anticipated, as China’s recovery began sooner than expected and turned out to be stronger than initially forecast. Over the next two years, global coal demand could even see new record highs as emerging markets led by China and India will lead consumption growth which is set to outpace declines in developed economies, according to the IEA.
Three large natural gas plants would wipe out climate gains from recent shutdowns of coal-fired plants in Illinois - Two weeks after Gov. J.B. Pritzker signed a law billed as the nation's most aggressive mandate for clean energy, the Chicago Democrat's administration tentatively approved a major new source of heat-trapping pollution.A draft state permit for a new natural gas power plant, planned for a small town south of Springfield, would allow the proposed Lincoln Land Energy Center to emit more carbon dioxide than 800,000 automobiles every year.Combined with CO2 emitted by two other gas plants approved during Republican Gov. Bruce Rauner's single term in office, the downstate generator would wipe out climate benefits from closing four of the state's coal-fired power plants last year. During 2019, the now-shuttered coal plants emitted 7.8 million tons of carbon dioxide, federal records show.State permits for soon-to-be-operating gas plants near Elwood and Morris and the draft permit for Lincoln Land enable the new gas-burners to release 63% more CO2into the atmosphere—up to 12.7 million tons annually."That certainly appears to be inconsistent with the path Illinois has chosen to move toward carbon-free energy," said James Gignac, senior Midwest energy analyst for the nonprofit Union of Concerned Scientists.Unlike power plants built during the last century by state-regulated utilities, companies behind the three new gas plants aren't required to demonstrate their projects are necessary to meet demand for electricity.Instead, private investors financing the projects are betting natural gas prices will remain low enough for them to profit as dirtier, less-efficient coal and gas plants are retired. Another way the companies can make money is through annual capacity auctions held by the regional grid operator to guarantee enough electricity is available during hot days and other times when the grid is challenged.
Latin America Calls for U.S. to Reduce its Plastic Waste Exports to the Region - by Jerri-Lynn Scofield -- The U.S. remains the world’s largest plastic waste exporter – even though waste exports have declined significantly since China decided in 2018 not to continue to be the world’s dumping ground for plastic waste. Other countries – Vietnam, Thailand – have taken up some of the slack. In fact, the U.S. continues to generate more plastic waste exports than all other EU countries combined. The Guardian reported Friday that Latin America environmental organizations have called for the U.S. to curb its plastic waste exports to the region, after a report conducted by the Last Beach Cleanup, a California-based environmental advocacy group, found that plastic waste exports from the U.S. had doubled to some Latin American countries during the first seven months of 2020 (seeLatin America urges US to reduce plastic waste exports to region). According to the Guardian: More than 75% of imports to the region arrive in Mexico, which received more than 32,650 tons (29,620 metric tonnes) of plastic waste from the US between January and August 2020. El Salvador was second, with 4,054 tons, and Ecuador third, with 3,665 tons, according to research carried out by the Last Beach Cleanup, an environmental advocacy group based in California. While hazardous waste imports are subject to tariffs and restrictions, they are seldom enforced and plastic waste intended for recycling – which until January this year was not considered hazardous under international law – that enters importing countries can often end up as landfill, according to a researchers with the Global Alliance for Incinerator Alternatives (Gaia). A Gaia report published in July also predicted further growth in the plastic waste sector in Latin America due to companies in the US and China investing in factories and recycling plants across the region to process the US plastic exports. Dumping plastic in developing countries is just a modern day manifestation of a colonialist attitude. Per the Guardian: Some view the practice as a form of environmental colonialism. “The cross-border plastic waste trade is perhaps one of the most nefarious expressions of the commercialisation of common goods and the colonial occupation of territories of the geopolitical south to turn them into sacrifice zones,” said Fernanda Solíz, the health area director at the Simón Bolívar University in Ecuador. “Latin America and the Caribbean are not the back yards of the United States,” Soliz said. “We are sovereign territories, and we demand the respect of the rights of nature and our peoples.”
Starlink Satellites Almost Hit Chinese Space Station On Tuesday, Foreign Ministry spokesman Zhao Lijian told reporters that the U.S. had conducted irresponsible behavior in outer space after two satellites operated by Elon Musk's SpaceX nearly collided with Tiangong, China's new space station, according to Bloomberg. Lijian said Beijing sent a letter to the United Nations about Tiangong's near misses with SpaceX satellites on Jul. 1 and Oct. 29. Beijing spoke with U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres on Dec. 3 about both incidents and how the U.S. wasn't abiding by its obligations under the Outer Space Treaty. "The U.S., while talking about the concept of responsible outer space behavior, is in practice ignoring its obligations under the treaty," Lijian said.According to the letter submitted to the UN, Tiangong had to maneuver multiple times to avoid colliding with Starlink satellites. The letter said the incidents "constituted dangers to the life or health of astronauts aboard the China Space Station." SpaceX has already launched 1,900 Starlink satellites and intends to launch thousands more as it rolls out space internet. Some are concerned that new satellites plus an estimated 30,000 satellites and other space debris orbiting Earth has made outer space much more dangerous. Last month, about 1,500 pieces of trackable orbital debris and hundreds of thousands of pieces were added to low Earth orbit after the Russians tested an anti-satellite weapon. As a result, the International Space Station had to move out of orbit to prevent a collision of space debris. As for Chinese netizens, some are not happy about Musk's reckless behavior in space. "How ironic that Chinese people buy Tesla, contributing large sums of money so Musk can launch Starlink, and then he (nearly) crashes into China's space station," one Weibo user said.To read China's rant on Musk's SpaceX satellites. View the document below.
Here's How The Energy Crisis Turns Into Hunger And Then... War? -- We have previously warned about a whopping food crisis and supply problems in the fertilizer market. Well, now is worse because that was BEFORE we had the natural gas crisis. Why is that important? Natural gas is THE critical input into making fertilizer. Urea is essentially ammonia in solid state, the process of which entails reacting ammonia with CO2. And we all now know — thanks to the climate nazis — that CO2 is currently the devil. The problem of course is that with no natural gas there is no urea, and with no urea there is no fertilizer. And with no fertilizer… well, we will eat each other. Here are the spot urea prices. Something else that we had noted some time back (in Korea) but which now seems like a larger problem. Here is an article about an Australian farmer who warns the urea supply crisis could halt normal life within weeks. Here’s what he says:‘Not only will we not be able to grow cattle and we will not be able to grow food and we will not be able to grow grain or anything like that, but even if we could, we can’t move it, because we can’t turn a wheel in a truck because we have no Adblue,’ [AdBlue is needed for diesel vehicles — half of all trucks on Australian roads run on dieselAs of February we might not have a truck on the road in Australia, we might not have a train on the tracks.‘So quite literally the whole country comes to a standstill as of February.’The farmer then, goes on to say:‘Go and have a look in your cupboard and go and have a look in your fridge and I guarantee just about every single item there, at some point, urea has been used to produce that item, whether it’s a steak or a salad or a can of baked beans.Moving to Europe, we have a full blown energy crisis unfolding there, made worse by increasingly more destructive policies by the pointy shoes (let’s produce more solar and wind when it’s proven to be both inadequate and massively costly) and a supply chain crisis.Take a look at European energy prices. So here we’re now witnessing the beginnings of what promises to be a storm. Think cold and hungry and you’ve got the right picture. That electricity comes largely from natural gas, and that natural gas comes from those peaky Russkies.
Ohio oil, gas counties' economy grew in 2020, urban areas declined - The Columbus Dispatch --Two small eastern Ohio counties in the heart of Ohio's natural gas country posted the biggest economic gains among the state's counties in 2020.The big gains in Harrison and Monroe counties came even as COVID-19 plunged most of Ohio's 88 counties and its biggest metro areas into a brief, but steep, recession. Only 18 counties had growth last year.Harrison and Monroe counties each posted a 20.5% increase in their economy in 2020, according to federal data released this month.Both counties are small so even a minimal increase in the economy can produce big change.Monroe County's economic activity was measured at $1.9 billion in 2020, while Harrison's was measured at $1.6 billion.Both counties have benefited from the surge in natural gas and oil drilling in Appalachia over the past decade that has helped offset thedecline in coal use.Total investment in the region has hit $93 billion from 2011 through 2020, according to Cleveland State University researchers who track oil and gas spending in the region.Monroe County also has benefited from the redevelopment of the old Ormet aluminum smelter site in recent years that includes the new natural gas power plant at the Long Ridge Energy Terminal, which one day could run on hydrogen as well as gas.Harrison County also is developing a power plant. Monroe County's gain follows a 23.7% increase in 2019 and 7.7% in 2018."There's been a lot of capital investment," said Jason Hamman, an economic development consultant for onroe County, citing the drilling, pipelines, the power plant and other activity taking place.
FERC Issues Show Cause Orders to Two Natural Gas Pipelines – Lexology -- The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission issued show cause orders to two natural pipelines—Rover Pipeline and Midship Pipeline Company—following its December 2021 open meeting, and sent a related dispute involving Midship for an administrative hearing. Chairman Richard Glick has signaled in the last year his desire for a more active enforcement program.
- Rover Pipeline LLC: During the construction of a 711-mile interstate gas pipeline in 2017, a large inadvertent release of two million gallons of drill mud flowed into a nearby wetland. Testing of the release by a state agency revealed the presence of diesel fuel and other chemicals that were not approved for use in drilling operations.FERC’s Office of Enforcement commenced an investigation (Docket No. IN17-4). Based on interviews with witnesses and contractors, the office alleges that Rover Pipeline LLC intentionally employed or directed its contractors to employ these unapproved additives to maintain drilling progress in the face of difficult drilling conditions. Based on the investigatory report, the Commission has ordered Rover to show cause as to why it has not violated the Natural Gas Act and the Commission’s regulations. Specifically, FERC alleges that Rover
- intentionally included diesel fuel and other toxic substances and unapproved additives in the drilling mud during its horizontal directional drilling (HDD) operations under the Tuscarawas River in Stark County, Ohio;
- failed to adequately monitor the right-of-way at the site of the Tuscarawas River HDD operation; and
- improperly disposed of inadvertently released drilling mud that was contaminated with diesel fuel and hydraulic oil.
FERC’s Office of Enforcement also recommended a $40 million civil penalty, and the Commission ordered Rover to show cause as to why it should not face that penalty.
- Midship Pipeline Company LLC: Midship Pipeline Company constructed an approximately 200-mile interstate natural gas pipeline in Oklahoma in 2019–2020 under a certification issued in 2019 (Docket No. CP17-458). Midship placed the pipeline into service in April 2020. During a subsequent review of Midship’s compliance with environmental conditions imposed on the project, FERC identified instances of noncompliance, namely instances of failing to remediate landowner properties—rocks and other construction debris had not been removed from landowner property, and had been buried on the property without landowner approval. Natural gas companies are required by their certificates of public convenience and necessity to return lands impacted by pipeline construction to their preconstruction condition. The Commission ordered Midship to remediate the noncompliance in March 2021, but a June 2021 report identified the continued presence of rocks and other construction debris left in the right-of-way or improperly buried in the project workplace. Further evaluation in September and October identified that construction debris remained improperly buried within the right-of-way, including on properties not originally identified by FERC. The Commission expressed concern that “buried rock and construction debris may be pervasive throughout the 200-mile-long pipeline.” In response, FERC ordered several actions:
- The Commission ordered Midship to show cause as to why the Commission (a) should not find that Midship improperly disposed of rock and debris along the right-of-way and (b) should not require Midship to immediately remove this rock and debris.
- The show cause order also ordered Midship to file within 60 days a detailed plan to investigate the extent of the buried rock and debris along the pipeline. Midship must then present a remediation plan for Commission approval.
- The show cause order indicated that the Commission has referred this matter to the Office of Enforcement for investigation. Further investigation indicates future Commission action, such as an imposition of civil penalties, if warranted by the investigatory findings.
- In a separate order, the Commission noted that one affected landowner seeks to reach a settlement by which it can self-perform outstanding remedial activities. The landowner fears further property damage if Midship remobilizes to restore the property. Midship and the landowner are at an impasse. Accordingly, the Commission has set this matter for an administrative hearing to determine the remaining scope of work necessary for Midship to meet its certificate obligations and a reasonable cost to complete the activities. But although FERC can order remediation, it cannot order damages. Thus, it is not clear what FERC intends to do with the results of the hearing, or if the aim is instead to encourage settlement.
- The Commission ordered Midship to file a plan to remediate another landowner’s property within 120 days of the order and in consultation with the landowner. Midship must then allow 30 days for the landowner to comment and, if applicable, explain any decision not to adopt the landowner’s recommendations. Midship must then await FERC approval before undertaking mitigation. Alternatively, Midship and the landowner may reach a settlement for the landowner to self-perform remediation activities.
Mariner East to Resume Construction After Marsh Creek Settlement - Pennsylvania’s Department of Environmental Protection (DEP) has cleared the way for Sunoco Pipeline LP to reroute part of its Mariner East natural gas liquids system near Marsh Creek Lake State Park in Chester County, PA. Construction was halted last August when drilling fluids and mud seeped into a part of the lake called Ranger Cove during the pipeline installation. The cove then was closed.As part of a settlement, Sunoco agreed to pay $4 million to the Pennsylvania Department of Conservation and Natural Resources (DCNR). The company also agreed to dredge Ranger Cove and pay a $341,000 civil penalty for permit violations.In return, DEP approved major amendment applications and permits allowing for a new route and pipeline installation method.“Southeast Pennsylvania lost a significant recreational resource when the impacted area of the lake was closed due to the drilling fluid impacts, and many residents and community members expressed the need to restore those opportunities,” DCNR Secretary Cindy Adams Dunn said. “This resolution will put us on the fastest track possible to dredge and restore Ranger Cove, and also will result in habitat and visitor improvements at Pennsylvania’s fifth most-visited state park.”The modification changes the pipeline route slightly on a 1,400-foot section of the line, according to Energy Transfer LP, which is expanding the pipeline system. Once work begins, installation takes five to 10 weeks. No drilling fluids would be used, the company said. The pipeline system, which traverses Pennsylvania and extends into Ohio and West Virginia, can move 280,000-300,000 b/d of liquefied petroleum gas and 70,000 b/d of ethane eastward. Online since 2016, the pipeline project has faced numerous regulatory, legal and construction setbacks. In October, the Delaware County Court of Common Pleas in Pennsylvania ordered the public release of emails between Energy Transfer/Sunoco LP and officials with Middletown Township. In late May, a water main break that occurred during ME construction left residents of the Glen Riddle Station Apartments without water and prompted subsequent questions from the apartment complex owner about whether the water was safe to drink after service was restored.
Restoring Lands Impacted by Scuttled Appalachian Natural Gas Pipelines to Cause Minimal Impacts, FERC Affirms --Restoration projects for the now canceled Atlantic Coast Pipeline (ACP) and Supply Header Project (SHP), which would have carried 1.5 Bcf/d from Appalachia, are unlikely to cause significant environmental impacts based on the mitigation measures planned, according to FERC.Dominion Energy and joint venture partner Duke Energy last year canceled the 600-mile, 1.5 Bcf/d ACP, designed to run from West Virginia into Virginia and North Carolina. The related SHP system also was canceled.The staff of the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission in July had determined in a draft environmental impact statement (EIS) that restoring lands impacted by the scuttled systems would likely be able to avoid or reduce impacts to less than significant levels. The sponsors, Atlantic Coast Pipeline LLC and Eastern Gas Transmission and Storage Inc., are proposing to stabilize the lands that were affected by the previous construction efforts. The projects are part of ceasing all project-related activities. The restoration projects, “with the mitigation measures discussed” in the supplemental EIS, would continue to avoid or reduce impacts to less than significant levels, “with the exception of climate change impacts, for which FERC staff is unable to determine significance,” it noted.The final supplemental EIS was issued earlier in December to comply with the National Environmental Policy Act. The U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service and the U.S. Department of Agriculture – Forest Service were cooperating agencies.The supplemental EIS determination, said FERC staff, was based on reviewing the information filed by the sponsors “and developed further using data requests, scoping, literature research and contacts with federal agencies.”In the review, staff developed specific mitigation measures that it determined would appropriately and reasonably reduce the environmental impacts resulting from restoration activities. The Commission is to consider the staff recommendations when the decisions are made about the restoration projects.
Another Legal Battle Looms Over Mountain Valley Pipeline | WVPB -- Opponents of the Mountain Valley Pipeline are gearing up for another legal fight to try to stop the natural gas project. The Roanoke Times reports that environmental and community groups filed a petition this week with a federal appeals court. The groups want the court to review last week's decision by the State Water Control Board to allow the infrastructure to cross streams and wetlands. The pipeline's planned 300-mile route cuts through West Virginia and Virginia. The Sierra Club was among the groups that filed the petition with the 4th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals. Pipeline opponents say Mountain Valley should not be allowed to continue given its past track record of violating erosion and sediment regulations in southwest Virginia. But Mountain Valley said those problems were largely caused by heavy rain in 2018 and have been corrected. Attempts to kill the $6.2 billion project have so far failed. Five energy companies constructing the pipeline say it's necessary to provide natural gas along the East Coast.
Massachusetts Court Tosses Lawsuit Challenging Atlantic Bridge Natural Gas Facility - A Massachusetts appeals court has dismissed a lawsuit challenging one of the approvals of the Weymouth natural gas compressor station along the Atlantic Bridge Project, which transports Appalachia supply into Canada. A three-judge panel agreed with the Supreme Judicial Court judge’s ruling that the Fore River Residents Against the Compressor Station (FRRACS) could not seek judicial review of the Weymouth compressor approval. The approval was issued by the Massachusetts Office of Coastal Zone Management (CZM). The group did not have the right to an agency hearing, and therefore could not request a judicial review, the appeals court stated. The appellate panel also agreed with the judge that FRRACS did not meet other standards under which it could have sought a judicial review. The panel in its ruling said “nothing in the statutory language, legislative intent or regulatory scheme indicates that the public may seek judicial review of a CZM consistency determination” [AC 21-P-149]. The Weymouth compressor was one of the final pieces of the Atlantic Bridge Project to be placed into service by Enbridge Inc. subsidiary Algonquin Gas Transmission (AGT). The expansion added 132,705 Dth/d to the AGT and Maritimes & Northeast (M&NE) pipeline systems in New England, which transport gas into Canada. AGT comprises 1,129 miles of pipeline in New England, New Jersey and New York. M&NE comprises 346 miles of pipeline in the Northeast and 543 miles in Canada.AGT and Maritimes filed for a certificate to construct Atlantic Bridge in 2015. Although approved by federal regulators in January 2017, AGT took three more years to bring the project online following opposition from environmental groups.Since coming into service in late 2020, the Weymouth compressor has experienced two unplanned outages. The first occurred immediately after in-service when emergency shutdowns led to a release of gas into the air. The force majeure lasted from Oct. 1, 2020, through Jan. 24. A second force majeure was declared in April.
Paloma Gains Gassy Haynesville – and More – in Completing Goodrich Takeover - An affiliate of private equity giant EnCap Investments has officially taken Houston-based Goodrich Petroleum Corp. private after completing a $23/share tender offer. Paloma Partners VI Holdings LLC, an entity of Houston’s Paloma Resources LLC, on Dec. 23 completed the estimated $480 million takeover, which was announced in November. Paloma, now active in Oklahoma, gains a broad set of assets across the Lower 48, including a substantial and growing business in the natural gas-rich Haynesville Shale. Goodrich has around 32,000 net acres in the Haynesville, 34,000 net acres in the Tuscaloosa Marine Shale and 4,300 net undeveloped acres in the Eagle Ford Shale. The Haynesville has been the primary target, with its proved gas reserves making up 99% of the total 543 Bcfe at the end of 2020. Goodrich’s production climbed 7% sequentially in 3Q2021 to 166 MMcfe/d, 99% weighted to natural gas. During the quarterly conference call in November, CEO Gil Goodrich said the company’s current hedge position for natural gas prices provided “substantial downside protection while also giving us substantial exposure to higher unhedged prices as we execute our 2022 plans.” The company has an estimated 2.4 Tcfe of resource potential in Northern Louisiana, with 127 net potential drilling locations using 880-foot spacing. Goodrich has an 85% working interest in the core of the Haynesville position, with Chesapeake Energy Corp. holding 15%. Capital expenditures in 3Q2021 totaled almost $28 million, with most of it “spent on drilling, completion and facility costs associated with Haynesville wells,” COO Robert Turnham told analysts in November. “To date, we’ve only seen a small amount of service cost inflation, and our economics…are as good as we have seen them in the basin.” The Paloma Resources arm initially was sponsored by EnCap in 2014. Previous entities have created and sold positions in the Barnett, Eagle Ford and Utica shales.
Natural-Gas Prices Rise on Colder Weather Forecasts – WSJ Natural-gas prices rose Monday after weather forecasts showed a bout of cold temperatures that could spur heating demand for parts of the U.S. this week.U.S. natural-gas futures finished Monday’s session at $4.060 per million British thermal units. That is up 8.8% from $3.731 per million BTUs at Friday’s close and the largest dollar gain since Nov. 26.The Weather Prediction Center predicted heavy snow, freezing temperatures and strong winds in the northern and western parts of the country.“The colder weather coming to the U.S. will be watched and we should see a substantial pick up in heating demand next week,” wrote BOK Financial analysts in a note. As the weather turns colder this week, Refinitiv is projecting average U.S. gas demand, including exports, to jump to 126.7 billion cubic feet a day, up from 110 billion.Most investors have been betting on a decline in gas prices. The number of bets by hedge funds and other speculators that prices will decline continue to outnumber those on rising prices by a wide margin, according to recent Commodity Futures Trading Commission data. Monday’s rise marks a break from themonthslong decline in natural-gas prices. An uptick in domestic gas production and an unseasonably warm fall and winter delayed heating season in much of the country, causing prices to come down. Natural-gas prices extended declines last week after the U.S. Energy Information Administration storage report showed a weekly decline of 55 billion cubic feet. That fell short of the 57 billion forecast from analysts surveyed by The Wall Street Journal, helping push gas storage into a small surplus. Prices skyrocketed earlier in the year, however, surpassing $6 per MMBtu in October. It isn’t unusual for natural-gas prices to bounce around a lot this time of year, when traders must triangulate winter weather forecasts with production reports and inventory data. Much of the world is on watch for heating-fuel shortages this winter after a lot of gas was burned for air-conditioning during some of the hottest summer weather ever recorded in the Northern Hemisphere. Other factors have put pressure on gas prices. A lack of coal supplies has caused generators to conserve coal stockpiles and boost natural-gas-fired generation, said Bank of America analysts in a recent note.
UPDATE 1-U.S. natgas jumps nearly 9% to 3-week high on colder weather outlook (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures jumped almost 9% on Monday to a three-week high on forecasts for colder weather and higher heating demand over the next two weeks. Front-month gas futures rose 32.9 cents, or 8.8%, to settle at $4.060 per million British thermal units (mmBtu), their highest close since Dec. 3. The contract fell more than 6% on Thursday. "Reversal from last week's profit taking is being driven by colder weather model runs," Robert DiDona of Energy Ventures Analysis said. "Overall, the discussion will focus on the short-term weather forecast. Futures will be highly dependent on this cold weather pattern setting up for H1 January. If we get the cold air pushing into the L48, prices have a chance to rise. If not, we will see selling." Data provider Refinitiv estimated 420 heating degree days (HDDs) over the next two weeks in the Lower 48 U.S. states, up from the 402 HDDs estimated on Friday. The normal is 437 HDDs for this time of year. HDDs, used to estimate demand to heat homes and businesses, measure the number of degrees a day's average temperature is below 65 Fahrenheit (18 Celsius). Refinitiv projected average U.S. gas demand, including exports, would jump from 110.0 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) this week to 126.7 bcfd next week as the weather turns seasonally colder. In recent months, global gas prices hit record highs as utilities around the world scrambled for LNG cargoes to replenish low stockpiles in Europe and meet insatiable demand in Asia, where energy shortfalls have caused power blackouts in China. The amount of gas flowing to U.S. LNG export plants has averaged 11.9 bcfd so far in December, now the sixth train at Cheniere Energy Inc's Sabine Pass plant in Louisiana is producing LNG. That compares with 11.4 bcfd in November and a monthly record of 11.5 bcfd in April. Output in the U.S. Lower 48 has averaged 97.0 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in December, which would top the monthly record of 96.5 bcfd in November.
Natural Gas Futures Steady in Rare Quiet Session Ahead of Expiration; Cash Rising - Natural gas futures held onto the extensive gains they accumulated at the start of the holiday week, slipping only a few pennies on additional warming in the forecast. The January Nymex contract settled Tuesday at $4.055/MMBtu, off only a half-cent from Monday’s close. The February contract slipped 5.7 cents to $3.885. Spot gas prices gathered momentum in every U.S. region except the East Coast. NGI’s Spot Gas National Avg. climbed 9.5 cents to $4.125. The week between Christmas and New Year’s Day is a notoriously volatile period for Nymex futures, with big swings and thin volumes seen as the year draws to a close. On Tuesday, only about 31,000 prompt-month contracts were traded, compared to more than 107,000 February contracts. Mobius Risk Group pointed out that futures traders – the few there are this week – are dealing with the push and pull of several fundamental factors. Increasingly volatile liquefied natural gas (LNG) destination markets and a “seemingly perpetually lingering” threat of cold also are being considered. Nevertheless, “January has remained anchored near $4.00,” the firm said. On the weather front, models have trended warmer in recent runs, failing to bring forward any widespread cold despite some support in global pattern drivers. NatGasWeather said cold air over the Northern Plains is expected to slide south into North Texas and eastward across the rest of the northern United States late in the week. Overnight temperatures are forecast to fall as low as the single digits, but the blast of chilly air has lost some intensity in recent days. Furthermore, there is a warmer-trending break during the middle and end of next week, according to the forecaster, where much of the southern and eastern halves of the country are seeing warming above normal once again. Even a subsequent cold shot on the radar for Jan. 7-9 has lost some of its chill factor in recent model runs.“What still needs resolving is just how much cold air advances out of the Northern Plains south and eastward Jan. 9-12 since there’s potential these days still play out rather frosty,” NatGasWeather said. “We continue to see some risk Texas and the Southern Plains eventually will see a shot of frigid air at some point in mid-January, thereby requiring close monitoring.” Meanwhile, Bloomberg data showed production holding near 97 Bcf/d, its highest level since late November.
January Natural Gas Futures Expire Lower Despite Colder Turns in Latest Weather Data; Cash Soft - Natural gas futures surged midweek as Old Man Winter appeared ready to ring in the new year. Even with the potential for cold weather to last a couple of weeks, though, the January Nymex futures contract expired 3.1 cents lower at $4.024/MMBtu. The incoming prompt-month February contract settled at $3.850, down 3.5 cents from Tuesday’s close. Spot gas, which traded Wednesday for gas delivery on Thursday and Friday, was lower across most of the country. NGI’s Spot Gas National Avg. tumbled 18.5 cents to $3.860. After trending warmer in recent runs, weather models moved in the colder direction overnight and generally maintained the added demand in the 15-day outlook in the midday run. NatGasWeather said the Global Forecast System (GFS) reflected little change in the first seven days of the forecast, with a few more days of exceptionally mild temperatures and modest demand. However, the American model shifted even colder for the Jan. 6-11 period. Weather forecasts continued to show frosty air in the Northern Plains sliding south across North Texas on Sunday and Monday before tracking eastward across the rest of the northern United States. NatGasWeather said overnight lows could fall below zero in some areas. This is a sharp departure from the record high temperatures set in the Lone Star State this week. For example, temperatures Wednesday morning had already reached a balmy 75, which is a staggering 30 degrees above normal for late December. By Sunday, morning lows are forecast in the 30s. The latest midday GFS showed a milder break starting next Tuesday through Jan. 7, according to NatGasWeather. However, it was quicker with the next cold shot arriving Jan. 7 instead of Jan. 8 to gain several heating degree days. Furthermore, there is enough cold air lingering across the northern United States Jan. 9-12 in the latest GFS to keep the back end of the 15-day forecast cold enough to satisfy. With volatility continuing in the final days of the year, the next government inventory report also could cause a stir in the market. Market estimates ahead of the Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) weekly storage report, scheduled for 10:30 a.m. Thursday, were wide ranging, with no clear indication of how steep inventories may fall. A Wall Street Journal survey of 11 analysts produced a range of withdrawal estimates from 66 Bcf to 128 Bcf, with an average draw of 114 Bcf. A Reuters poll had an even wider range, with a median pull of 126 Bcf. NGI modeled a 142 Bcf withdrawal. For reference, the EIA recorded a 120 Bcf draw in the same week last year and the five-year average pull is 121 Bcf.
U.S. natgas falls to six-month low on rising output, drop in European prices - (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures dropped more than 7% on Thursday to a six-month low, following a slide in European gas prices, as output continues to rise. The price drop came despite a bigger-than-expected storage withdrawal last week and forecasts for colder weather and more heating demand over the next two weeks. On its first day as the front-month, gas futures fell 28.9 cents, or 7.5%, to settle at $3.561 per million British thermal units (mmBtu), their lowest close since June 25. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said utilities pulled 136 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas from storage during the week ended Dec. 24.. That was higher to the 125-bcf decline that analysts had forecast in a Reuters poll and compared with a draw of 120 bcf in the same week last year and a five-year (2016-2020) average decline of 121 bcf. Last week's withdrawal reduced stockpiles to 3.226 trillion cubic feet (tcf), or 0.6% above the five-year average of 3.207 tcf for this time of the year. "A slide in European prices might be having some downward effect on the U.S. market, although I do expect U.S. LNG exports to remain at full capacity for many months to come," said John Abeln, an analyst with data provider Refinitiv. "However, near-term outlook remains slightly bearish with production increasing over the past few weeks." Output in the U.S. Lower 48 has averaged 97.1 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in December, which would top the monthly record of 96.5 bcfd in November. Gas prices in Europe dropped more than 10% to a more than three-week low as mild weather capped demand and a steady flow of liquefied natural gas (LNG) offset low Russian pipeline flows. Refinitiv estimated 464 heating degree days (HDDs) over the next two weeks in the Lower 48 U.S. states, up from the 454 HDDs estimated on Tuesday. The normal is 440 HDDs for this time of year. HDDs, used to estimate demand to heat homes and businesses, measure the number of degrees a day's average temperature is below 65 Fahrenheit (18 Celsius). Refinitiv projected average U.S. gas demand, including exports, would jump from 109.6 billion cubic feet per day this week to 125.9 bcfd next week as the weather turns seasonally colder. The amount of gas flowing to U.S. LNG export plants has averaged 11.9 bcfd so far in December, now the sixth train at Cheniere Energy Inc's Sabine Pass plant in Louisiana is producing LNG. That compares with 11.4 bcfd in November and a monthly record of 11.5 bcfd in April.
U.S. natgas marks best year since 2016 amid global price surge (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures on Friday closed out their biggest yearly gain in five powered mostly by strong demand for U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports helped by an initial surge in global prices. The contract climbed to its highest in more than a decade, at about $6.5 per million British thermal units (mmBtu) earlier in 2021. But the last quarter of the year was still its worst since the third quarter of 2008, with the market pressured by a subsequent retreat in European prices with forecasts projecting a milder-than-expected winter. "We're getting more tied to the global market." Front-month gas futures rose 16.9 cents, or about 5%, to settle at $3.730 per million British thermal units. For the year, the contract jumped over 47%, its biggest yearly percentage rise since 2016. Data provider Refinitiv estimated 462 heating degree days (HDDs) over the next two weeks in the lower 48 U.S. states, higher than the 30-year normal of 441 HDDs for this time of year. HDDs, used to estimate demand to heat homes and businesses, measure the number of degrees a day's average temperature is below 65 Fahrenheit (18 Celsius). Preliminary data from Refinitiv showed output in the U.S. lower 48 has averaged 97.4 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in December, which would top November's monthly record of 96.5 bcfd. The amount of gas flowing to U.S. LNG export plants has averaged 12.2 bcfd so far in December, now that the sixth train at Cheniere Energy Inc's Sabine Pass plant in Louisiana is producing LNG. That compares with 11.4 bcfd in November and is likely to beat the monthly record of 11.5 bcfd set in April.
Sempra sells stake in North Am LNG business for $1.8bn --Sempra announced on December 22 it had sold a 10% stake in Sempra Infrastructure Partners, which manages the group's North American LNG assets, to the Abu Dhabi Investment Authority (ADIA) for some $1.785bn. The transaction places Sempra Infrastructure's overall value at $26.5bn, including some $8.6bn in asset-related debt. It comes two months after Sempra divested a 20% interest in Sempra Infrastructure to US investment firm KKR for $3.38bn. Sempra Infrastructure's business includes the Energia Costa Azul (ECA) LNG export project in Mexico's Baja California region, as well as the Cameron LNG export terminal in Louisiana, and gas pipeline and renewable energy assets. Sempra took a final investment decision on ECA's 3.25mn mt/yr first phase in November 2020, representing the only sanctioning of new liquefaction capacity in that year. The terminal provides an outlet for US gas to be delivered to Asian markets without having to pass through the Suez Canal. It is expected to start up in 2024. Bringing on board ADIA as an investor will help Sempra "build out a growth platform with an increasingly global capability," the US company's CEO Jeffrey Martin said in a statement. "The timing of the transaction is attractive because it allows us to efficiently rotate capital into a growing set of investment opportunities at our utilities and return capital to our owners in the form of share repurchases," he continued. "This transaction allows us to do both, while also supporting our balance sheet." Sempra said it will repurchase $500mn of its stock using some of the proceeds. "At ADIA, we see tremendous opportunity in the ongoing transformation of global energy markets," the UAE agency's director of retail estate and infrastructure, Khadem Al Remaithi commented. "In North America, few businesses are as well positioned as Sempra Infrastructure to build the new energy systems for the 21st century."
Texas, Louisiana and New Mexico Energy Execs Optimistic on ‘22 Natural Gas, Oil Prices - Executives in the energy breadbasket of the country are forecasting Henry Hub natural gas prices to average $4.06/MMBtu at the end of 2022, according to the latest quarterly survey by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. The Dallas Fed, as it is known, every three months surveys exploration and production (E&P) companies and oilfield services (OFS) firms headquartered in the Eleventh District, which encompasses Texas, Northern Louisiana and southern New Mexico. For the latest survey, 134 executives responded, including 90 E&Ps and 44 OFS firms. The survey, conducted Dec. 8-16, queried executives about capital expenditures (capex) plans and commodity prices, among other things. They also were asked for their outlook on prices for goods and services. Overall, the region’s oil and gas sector continued to grow in the final three months, executives said. “The business activity index, which is the survey’s broadest measure of conditions facing Eleventh District energy firms, remained elevated at 42.6, essentially unchanged from its third quarter reading,” the Dallas Fed’s researchers said. Executives from 129 firms offered their forecast for year-end 2022 Henry Hub gas. Spot prices averaged $3.76 during the survey period. While more than 30% predicted the average gas price outlook would be $4.00-4.06, slightly fewer forecast prices would average $3.50-3.99 by the end of 2022. Close to 5% expect the gas price to exceed $6.00 by the end of next year. For West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil, respondents predicted a year-end 2022 price would average $75/bbl, with a range of $50 to $125. WTI spot averaged $71 during the survey collection period. Oil production increased at a faster pace during 4Q2021, E&P executives said. “The oil production index moved up from 10.7 in the third quarter to 19.1 in the fourth quarter,” according to the survey. “Similarly, the natural gas production index advanced seven points to 26.1.” Along with rising output, costs also increased sharply for the third straight quarter. Among OFS firms, “the index for input costs increased from 60.8 to 69.8 – a record high and suggestive of significant cost pressures,” said researchers. “Only one of the 44 responding OFS firms reported lower input costs this quarter. “Among E&P firms, the index for finding and development costs advanced from 33.0 in the third quarter to 44.9 in the fourth. Additionally, the index for lease operating expenses also increased, from 29.4 to 42.0. Both of these indexes reached their highest readings in the survey’s five-year history.”
Marathon to receive second release from U.S. strategic petroleum reserve --The U.S. Energy Department awarded a second batch of crude oil from the strategic reserve to Marathon Petroleum Corp. as part of the Biden administration’s effort to lower energy costs. Marathon will receive 250,000 barrels of crude oil as part of an exchange from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, the Department of Energy said on its website. Exxon Mobil Corp. was granted the first batch of crude of 4.8 million barrels. The government offered a total of 32 million barrels of high sulfur crude for exchange supply from January through March, with an option for December deliveries. West Texas Intermediate crude futures have dropped about 14% since late October, when the U.S. began indicating they were considering a variety of tools to bring down fuel prices. Oil dropped more sharply since news of the omicron variant of the coronavirus broke in late November. But perceptions that the latest strain won’t severely impact demand is giving crude prices some support. On Dec. 17, the agency issued a tender to sell 18 million barrels of sour crude from the SPR to be delivered in February and March. The tender will close on January 4.
Listen: Refiners urge US EPA to grant biofuel waivers to ease pump prices - S&P Global Platts Capitol Crude podcast -- US oil refiners are pushing back against the Environmental Protection Agency's proposal to deny small refinery exemptions and other aspects of the latest biofuel mandate. They argue the policy will force some plants to close and increase gasoline prices further at a time the Biden administration is looking to ease pain at the pump for US drivers. In its long-awaited Renewable Fuel Standard proposal, EPA adjusted down blending volumes for 2020 and 2021 to take into account the severe drop in transportation fuel demand resulting from coronavirus pandemic lockdowns. Refiners report gasoline and diesel demand inching back up to over 90% of 2019 levels, but a full recovery is not expected until late in 2022. Platts senior writer Janet McGurty spoke with Derrick Morgan, senior vice president for federal and regulatory affairs at the American Fuel & Petrochemical Manufacturers, about the small refinery waivers, RIN market volatility and how refiners view the latest blending targets.
Regiment Building Pump-Down Arsenal in Permian, Eagle Ford --Regiment LLC, whose oilfield services are focused in the Permian Basin and Eagle Ford Shale, said it has expanded its completions fleet with two recent acquisitions. The privately held operator disclosed few financial details. In late September, it said it acquired a fleet of pumps and high specification fracture stack equipment from a private pressure pumper. In a separate transaction in November, Regiment said it tacked on more pressure pumping equipment with a Permian operator.Together, the purchases increased the total asset base to more than 75,000 hydraulic hp, the Midland, TX-based operator said. “The addition of Tier IV equipment and the optionality of dual-fuel consumption will help Regiment lower its emissions as customers seek to reduce their carbon footprint. “We have grown our equipment base substantially in 2021, with plans for continued expansion in 2022.” Regiment is a portfolio company of Energy Founders Fund LP, which is sponsored by Houston-based private equity fund Donovan Ventures. Upstream oil and gas employment in Texas reached 185,800 in November, representing increases of 2,400 jobs month/month and 24,800 positions year/year, the Texas Independent Producers and Royalty Owners Association recently reported. According to Baker Hughes Co. (BKR), the oil and gas rig count in the Permian has risen by about 70% from a year ago, with the Eagle Ford up by 69%. Regiment specializes in pump down and toe preparations to complete wells. Pump-down perforating, according to BKR, is a “completion technique of conveying perforating guns and a plug into horizontal wells by pumping fluids from surface. Once the plug is set at its required depth, the guns receive commands via wireline to fire, creating production pathways through the cased and cemented well and into the formation.”
Pioneer Natural Resources completes $3 billion exit from Delaware Basin -- A $3 billion sale of Pioneer Natural Resources’ assets in the Delaware Basin was completed last week and the company plans to focus its oil and gas operations to the east. Pioneer announced the sale to Continental Resources in November, seeking to divest from the Delaware – a sub-basin that spans southeast New Mexico and West Texas on the western side of the larger Permian Basin – in favor of developing operations in the Permian’s eastern Midland sub-Basin. Pioneer Chief Executive Officer Scott Sheffield said the deal would allow Pioneer to refocus its resources in the Midland area where he said the company is the largest acreage holder. The sale included about 92,000 acres with an estimated production of about 50,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day and 35,000 barrels of oil per day. “This transaction returns Pioneer to being 100% focused on its high-margin, high-return Midland Basin assets, where we have the largest acreage position and drilling inventory,” Sheffield said. “Proceeds from this divestment will be used to further strengthen Pioneer’s balance sheet, improving our already strong leverage metrics.” Continental CEO Bill Berry said the purchase will mark the company’s entrance into the Permian Basin region, complimenting assets held in the Bakken region in North Dakota, along with the Powder River Basin in Colorado and operations in Oklahoma. "Continental's foundation has always been built upon a strong geology-led corporate strategy,” Berry said. “This continues today and has directly led us to our new strategic position in the Permian Basin.” Following the sale, Continental expected the assets to $750 million in annual cashflow from operations as 98 percent of the lands were in operations. In total, the assets include more than 1,000 locations in the Bone Spring and Wolfcamp formations along with others in the Northern Delaware Basin, including water management infrastructure.
Texas Natural Gas, Oil Regulator Investigating Another Permian Earthquake - The Railroad Commission of Texas (RRC) is suspending all disposal well permits to inject oil and gas waste into deep strata within a portion of the Permian Basin following a series of earthquakes. The action, taken earlier in December and set to take effect on Friday (Dec. 31), applies to 33 deep disposal wells within the boundaries of the Gardendale Seismic Response Area (SRA). The area includes northeastern Ector County to southwest Martin County. Injections also were suspended as of Dec. 15 in a smaller area within the Gardendale SRA, and other limitations have been put in place in Northern Culberson and Reeves counties. The permit suspensions preceded an investigation by the RRC into a 4.5 magnitude earthquake that struck about 11 miles north of the sleepy town of Stanton, in West Texas, late Monday. The quake struck at a depth of 4.8 miles in Martin County in the Midland sub-basin of the Permian, according to the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS). No injuries were reported. The RRC has been in contact with oil and gas disposal well operators in the area, according to spokesperson Andrew Keese. “We’re sending inspectors to the facilities as well.” The state regulator plans to continue closely monitoring seismic activity in the area and “will take any actions, as necessary,” according to Keese. Monday’s quake follows a series of smaller tremors in recent months detected by the University of Texas at Austin’s Bureau of Economic Geology. The Bureau’s TexNet Seismic Monitoring Program was developed after the Texas Legislature tasked it with helping to locate and determine the origins of earthquakes in the state. On Dec. 15 and 16, TexNet reported that four earthquakes occurred in northwestern Midland County with magnitudes of 3.1, 3.6, 3.7 and 3.3, respectively. These were the most recent events in an increasing sequence of earthquakes that has occurred in this area over the last two years, according to the RRC. The Permian, a sprawling basin spanning 86,000 square miles in West Texas and southeastern New Mexico, had 294 active rigs as of Dec. 23, according to the latest available data from Baker Hughes Co. (BKR). This was the most of any other play in the United States. Of that total, 127 were in the Midland sub-basin and 157 were in the Delaware. For comparison, the Haynesville Shale had the second-largest number of rigs at 48, BKR data showed. In a study published earlier this month, the USGS said efforts should continue to systematically quantify nationwide earthquake risks to natural gas pipelines. Because they are buried underground, pipelines are vulnerable to the compounding effects of an earthquake, such as strong shaking, fault ruptures, landslides and liquefaction, according to the federal agency. Leveraging publicly available data on gas pipelines such as incident data from past earthquakes and information collected by the Pipelines and Hazardous Materials Safety Administration, the USGS developed a first-order assessment of quake risks to U.S. gas transmission pipelines caused by strong ground shaking. Models determined that California had the highest distribution of average annual loss (AAL) for pipelines from earthquake-induced shaking. Other western states also saw a higher percentage of AAL, while Arkansas, Mississippi, Missouri and Tennessee recorded a moderate percentage of AAL. “To quantify the risk and its associated uncertainties, we systematically integrated the latest USGS National Seismic Hazard Model, a logic tree-based exposure model, three different vulnerability models and a consequence model,” said lead author Neal Simon Kwong. The results enable comparisons against other risk assessment efforts, encourage more transparent deliberation regarding alternative approaches – such as characterizing displacement demands or alternate models to evaluate leaks or breaks – and facilitate decisions on potentially assessing localized risks due to ground failures that require site-specific data.
US oil, gas rig count drops 13 to 706 on week, as Permian Basin losses mount - S&P Global The US oil and gas rig count fell by 13 to 706 on the week, energy analytics and software company Enverus said Dec. 30, as the Permian Basin recorded by far the biggest decline — and biggest move — of any of the eight largest domestic plays. Overall, the drop in the total rig count came from crude plays where rigs fell by 14 on the week to 552. Rigs working in gas plays rose by one to 168. Rigs in the Permian, sited in West Texas/southeast New Mexico, fell by five to 300, on top of a one-rig dip the previous week. But generally, the basin — the largest in the US with 4.88 million b/d of current oil production and about 14.3 Bcf/d of natural gas output — had been gaining rigs from a level of 260 in mid-September. Permian drilling activity has risen 70% in 2021, after starting the year at 176 rigs. Moreover, the Haynesville Shale of East Texas/northwest Louisiana rose by two rigs to 63 — the highest activity level in the largely dry gas play since late April 2019. The past week's 63 rigs were also well above Haynesville's pre-coronavirus level of 42 in late February 2020. Rigs at the Haynesville Shale generally stayed in the 30s-40s through the first year of the coronavirus pandemic and began to rise in the second quarter of 2021, in tandem with natural gas prices. A mix of small gains, losses Otherwise, the US rig count for the week ended Dec. 29 was a hodgepodge of upticks and downticks by a rig or two. Rigs in the Bakken Shale of North Dakota/Montana also rose by two to 32. Bakken activity had dropped sharply as the pandemic hit in March 2020 from levels in the low 50s. Bakken activity began 2021 at only 12 rigs, then picked up from there. Recovery was slow as severe winter storms hit the region, and by mid-year, the large oil play's rig count only topped 20, but activity has continued to increase since then. The SCOOP-STACK play in Oklahoma rose by a rig for the week ended Dec. 29, for a total of 39. Rigs in the play have bounced around the high 30s to low 40s since October, after starting 2021 at 15. But that means the SCOOP-STACK is back to its pre-pandemic level of 42. The two names are acronyms of the names of the counties and areas in which they are located. Apart from the Permian, only one other basin posted a rig loss during the week ended Dec. 29 — the DJ Basin, mostly located in Colorado. It fell by one rig for the week ended Dec. 29, leaving 17. The DJ's pre-pandemic level was 25, but it hasn't been above 20 since April 2020. In three other US basins during the same week, activity was stagnant with no weekly net change in rigs. That left the Eagle Ford Shale, sited in South Texas, at 57 rigs, the Marcellus Shale in Pennsylvania/West Virginia at 37, and the Utica Shale at 10.
Shale drillers face record cost pressures as banks shun the sector--Oil drillers in the biggest U.S. fields are shouldering record costs at the same time that some banks are increasingly reluctant to loan money to the sector, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. Equipment, leasing and other input costs for oil explorers and the contractors they hire surged to an all-time high during the current quarter, the Dallas Fed said in a report released on Wednesday. Drillers also are seeing the universe of willing lenders shrink in the Eleventh Federal Reserve District that includes Texas and parts of Louisiana and New Mexico. “The political pressure forcing available capital away from the energy industry is a problem for everyone,” an unidentified survey respondent said. “Banks view lending to the energy industry as having a ‘political risk.’ The capital availability has moved down-market to family offices, etc., and it is drastically reducing the size and availability of commitments regardless of commodity prices.” Meanwhile, supply-chain snarls are hindering efforts to replace diesel-burning pumps with cleaner, electric-powered gear in the Permian Basin, where components such as transformers are in “extremely short supply,” another respondent said.
Chronic Underinvestment Could Push Oil Prices Higher In 2022 - U.S. shale is literally running on empty: according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration's latest Drilling Productivity Report, the United States had 5,957 drilled but uncompleted wells (DUCs) in July 2021, the lowest for any month since November 2017 from nearly 8,900 at its 2019 peak. At this rate, shale producers will have to sharply ramp up the drilling of new wells just to maintain the current production clip.The EIA says the sharp decline in DUCs in most major U.S. onshore oil-producing regions reflects more well completions and, at the same time, less new well drilling activity--proof that shale producers have been sticking to their pledge to drill less. Whereas the higher completion rate of more wells has been increasing oil production, especially in the Permian region, the completions have sharply lowered DUC inventories, which could sharply limit oil production growth in the United States in the coming months. According to S&P Capital IQ data, 27 major oil makers tripled capital spending between 2004 and 2014 to $294 billion and then cut it to $111 billion by last year. Once old wells were capped, new ones haven't been available to fill the production gap quickly. The question is how long the restraint by publicly traded oil companies will last. Capital spending is expected to clock in around $135 billion next year, good for a 21.6% Y/Y jump but still less than half 2014's level.Other than severely limiting new drilling activity, U.S. shale has also been keeping its pledge to return more cash to shareholders in the form of dividends and share buybacks.A recent report by progressive advocacy group Accountable.us says that 16 of 24 large U.S. energy companies have raised their dividends this year, while 11 made special dividend payouts totaling more than $36.5 billion. That's a pretty impressive payout ratio considering that the sector has so far reported $174 billion in profits this year. Indeed, "variable dividends" that allow companies to hike dividends when times are good and to lower them when the going gets tough has become a favorite tool for oil and gas companies.Meanwhile, oil and gas companies have spent a more modest $8 billion in share buybacks, though ExxonMobil ((NYSE:XOM)and Chevron (NYSE:CVX) have pledged to buy back as much as $20 billion of stock in the next two years. The energy sector has made robust share gains in the current year, which could explain the reluctance to spend too much on share repurchases.The most important reason, however, why oil prices are likely to remain high in the coming year is OPEC discipline:According to the IEA, crude consumption is expected to improve to 99.53 million barrels per day (bpd), up from 96.2 million bpd this year, leaving it just a hair short of 2019's daily consumption of 99.55 million barrels. That will, of course, depend on the world bringing the new Omicron variant of Covid-19 quickly under control. Higher oil demand will put pressure on both OPEC and the U.S. shale industry to meet demand. But let's not forget that numerous OPEC nations have already been struggling to add to output, while the U.S. shale industry has to deal with investor demands to hold the line on spending. So far, the U.S. shale industry has not responded to higher oil prices as they had done previously, with overall U.S. production averaged 11.2 million bpd in 2021 compared with a record of nearly 13 million bpd in late 2019. U.S. production is expected to only increase by 700,000 b/d in 2022 to 11.9 b/d, according to Rystad Energy
EIA's Weekly Petroleum Report -- US Implied Oil Demand -- All-Time High -- December 29, 2021 - Before we get to the EIA report: US implied oil demand on a four-week basis just hit an all-time high for this time of the year. Link here. Link here.
- US crude oil in storage decreased by an impressive 3.6 million bbls. WTI: up slightly on news.
- US crude oil in storage stands at 420.0 million bbls; 7% below five-year average
- US crude oil imports averaged 6.8 million bbls; yawn; increased by 0.6 million bbls; four-week average of 6.5 million bpd is almost 14% more than same four-week period last year;
- US refiners are operating at 89.7% of their operable capacity; yawn
- distillate fuel inventories decreased by 1.7 million bbls; 14% below the five-year average
- jet fuel product supplied was up 20.6% compared with same four-week period last year;
US crude oil and oil products in storage, including SPR: This was part of President Biden's plan to lower gasoline prices. Much of the decrease in US storage was due to the release of "our" strategic reserve as ordered by President Biden. Most of our "strategic reserve" released crude oil went to China and India. An example of strategic thinking.
Despite Omicron, U.S. Petroleum Demand Mounts and Production Hits 2021 Peak --Domestic consumption of gasoline and other petroleum products climbed last week, and producers boosted output to a 2021 high to meet the mounting demand, data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) showed. The increases for the week ended Dec. 24 came even as the Omicron variant of the coronavirus spread rapidly throughout the Lower 48. New outbreaks caused air travel interruptions and raised fresh concerns among public health officials about the pandemic as winter weather settles in and people spend more time indoors, where the virus is more transmissible. Americans, however, appeared to shrug off the threat in the run-up to the long Christmas holiday weekend, as consumption of all petroleum products tracked by EIA rose last week. Overall demand jumped 9% week/week, the agency said Wednesday in its latest Weekly Petroleum Status Report. Motor gasoline demand rose 8% week/week, while jet fuel consumption advanced 9%. Over the past four-week period, total products supplied – EIA terminology for demand — averaged 21.4 million b/d, up 12% from the same period last year. Over the past four weeks, gasoline consumption averaged 9.3 million b/d, up 17%, while distillate fuel product supplied averaged 4.1 million b/d, up 8%. Jet fuel demand spiked 21% to 1.5 million b/d. Raymond James & Associates Inc.’s Mike Gibbs, managing director, noted that an increasing number of Americans are inoculated against the virus and confident that vaccines would protect against serious illness. Additionally, he said, early indications from studies of Omicron “suggest a very transmissible but less severe disease.” Hospitalizations, Gibbs added, “are rising but not to the degree of previous strains” and “deaths have stayed relatively low for now. We want to at least be mindful of the possibility that Covid may be transitioning toward an endemic (something we live with like the flu) rather than a pandemic. We are hopeful that the global reopening can progress over the coming months as Covid concerns subside.” U.S. producers are betting on continued momentum as well. Crude output reached 11.8 million b/d last week – a 2021 peak and up 200 million b/d from the previous week.
U.S. oil production set to increase further in 2022, energy expert Dan Yergin says -U.S. oil production is back and set to increase in 2022 after more than a year of OPEC and its allies "running the show," according to Daniel Yergin, vice chairman of IHS Markit.Output could rise by as much as 900,000 barrels per day, he told CNBC's"Squawk Box Asia" on Wednesday.U.S. oil firms slashed production in 2020 as the coronavirus pandemic destroyed demand and supply has not yet recovered to pre-Covid levels. In 2019, the U.S. produced 12.29 million barrels of crude oil per day, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration.That figure was 11.28 million in 2020 and is estimated to be 11.18 million in 2021 and 11.85 million in 2022. "The U.S. is back," Yergin said. "For the last year, year and a half, it's been OPEC+ running the show, but U.S. production is coming back already, and it's going to come back more in 2022."
'Turn the valve off': Climate activists push for an abrupt end to the fossil fuel era --Climate activists and campaign groups are pursuing an abrupt end to the fossil fuel era, condemning the latest round of net-zero pledges from many governments and corporations as a smokescreen that fails to meet the demands of the climate emergency. Calls to keep fossil fuels in the ground are anathema to leaders in the oil and gas industry, who insist the world will continue "to be thirsty for all energy sources" in the years ahead. To be sure, the burning of fossil fuels, such as coal, oil and gas, is the chief driver of the climate crisis and researchers have repeatedly stressed that the best weapon to tackle rising global temperatures is to cut greenhouse gas emissions as quickly as possible. Yet, even as politicians and business leaders publicly acknowledge the necessity of transitioning to renewable alternatives, current policy trends show dirty fuels are not going away — or even declining — anytime soon. Tom Goldtooth, a climate activist and executive director of the North American Indigenous Environmental Network, described the burning of fossil fuels as like filling a bathtub with far too much water. "It is overflowing with too much carbon. The world can't absorb any more." "The simple solution, that we are still demanding, is the world has to turn the valve off," Goldtooth said. His comments came as he spoke at The People's Summit for Climate Justice, an event hosted by the COP26 Coalition on the sidelines of the Glasgow summit in November. "The net-zero solution is not a solution," he said. "It is not going to get this world where we need to go, it is not going to get us to 1.5 degrees Celsius." To have any chance of capping global heating to the goal of 1.5 degrees Celsius, the aspirational goal of the landmark 2015 Paris Agreement, the world needs to almost halve greenhouse gas emissions in the next 8 years and reach net-zero emissions by 2050.That's a huge undertaking, and one that the world's leading climate scientists have warned will have to incur "rapid, far-reaching and unprecedented changes" across all aspects of society.
U.S., Global Oil Prices Poised to Extend Rebound into New Year - Despite a November lull imposed by the Omicron variant of the coronavirus, crude prices in the United States and globally were positioned Thursday to finish 2021 up more than 50% on the year, led upward by mounting demand for travel fuels and heating oil that outshined modestly increased production levels. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil in the United States traded around $77/bbl on Thursday, far higher than the $48 level at which it started 2021. Brent crude, the international benchmark, hovered near $80 in Thursday trading, well above the sub-$52 price it fetched at the beginning of the year. The prices mark a stark reversal from the doldrums of 2020, when the coronavirus paralyzed demand and, in the early days of the pandemic, briefly sent oil prices into negative territory. Should the United States and other major economies continue to navigate the pandemic without the widespread business lockdowns and travel restrictions endured in 2020, traders said demand is likely to continue climbing, and prices could remain elevated deep into 2022. “Oil is a reflection of economic activity, and there’s so much pent-up demand across the global economy driving momentum now,” U.S. Global Investors Inc.’s Mike Matousek, head trader, told NGI’s Shale Daily. “I think markets expect that to continue well into the year ahead, and oil prices show that.” The Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta estimated the U.S. economy grew at a 7.6% annual rate in the final quarter of 2021 – one of the strongest quarterly advances in a generation. Federal Reserve researchers in December forecast U.S. economic growth of 4% in 2022. To be sure, the pandemic ebbed and flowed throughout 2021, making economic projections dicey, and the Omicron variant is expected to curb the pace of growth at least temporarily early in 2022 as cases mount in the winter months. The concern extends to energy. In November, after Omicron emerged, Brent and WTI prices finished the month more than 15% lower, marking the largest monthly decline since the coronavirus was declared a pandemic in March 2020. Still, prices in December rebounded again. Economists increasingly expect lighter impacts from new variants than previous virus waves, given increased vaccination levels and governments’ collective aversion to new lockdowns. “The Omicron variant is likely to be a near-term constraint on growth, but a temporary one,” said Raymond James & Associates Inc.’s Scott Brown, chief economist. If he is right, energy demand could continue surging. Robust demand for travel fuels derived from oil – in addition to mounting calls for natural gas to fuel power plants and heat homes – galvanized seismic price gains in 2021. November energy prices jumped 33% from a year earlier — far more than any other category tracked by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics — and rose 3.5% from October. The cost of gasoline was up more than 58% year/year in November, the latest month for which data was available. Energy commodities – chiefly oil and gas – climbed 5.9% month/month in November and 57.5% year/year. Of course, the soaring consumer energy prices added to widespread inflation concerns, Matousek said, and participants across energy markets are leery about runaway price increases that would eventually curb demand. What’s more, inflation has hampered energy companies that focus on equipment, storage, transportation and refining – areas affected by high fuel and input costs.
Natural gas leak in Dodge County causes evacuations and closures -- A large natural gas leak from a damaged pipe has caused temporary evacuations and road closures. Around 2:30 p.m. on Wednesday, a crash happened on STH-26 near the airport, about one mile north of Juneau. The crash damaged an above-ground gas pipe, causing a large natural gas leak. People within a one-mile radius of the leak were notified and evacuated from the area. The Dodge County Sheriff's Office says there will likely be long-term road closures in and around the Juneau area. Natural gas in the City of Juneau was shut off, and is expected to stay off throughout the night. Electricity to the city was also turned off for a short period of time, and it's unclear if it may need to be temporarily turned off again during repairs. A temporary warming shelter was set up at the Sacred Heart Catholic Church on the west side of Horicon for those who were evacuated. It's unknown how long it will need to remain open. The Dodge County Sheriff's Office says it will send out updated information as it's available or necessary.
Officials declare California oil spill cleanup complete - Nearly three months after an undersea pipeline spilled thousands of gallons of crude oil into the waters off Southern California, authorities have announced that coastal cleanup efforts are now complete. "After sustained cleanup operations for the Southern California oil spill, affected shoreline segments have been returned to their original condition," officials said in a news release Tuesday. The unified command cleanup response was led by the U.S. Coast Guard, the California Department of Fish and Wildlife's office of oil spill prevention and response, and Orange and San Diego counties. Authorities were first alerted to the possibility of an oil spill off Orange County on Friday, Oct. 1. Residents noticed a sheen that Saturday, and by sunrise the following morning, a diesel-like odor had overtaken the area as an oil slick neared Huntington Beach. Crashing waves brought dark crude onto the shore, along with dead birds and fish. Response teams mobilized quickly, including biologists and environmentalists who scrambled to put barriers between the oil and Talbert Marsh, a 25-acre ecological reserve that is home to dozens of species. Gov. Gavin Newsom declared a state of emergency in Orange County. "In a year that has been filled with incredibly challenging issues, this oil spill constitutes one of the most devastating situations that our community has dealt with in decades," Huntington Beach Mayor Kim Carr said at the time. The spill sparked a statewide conversation about fossil fuel reliance and also renewed calls for the government to take more aggressive action against the aging oil platforms that dot the state's coast. Orange County Supervisor Katrina Foley, whose district includes Huntington Beach, said Wednesday it was "great to have the cleanup component of this behind us," but that there is still much work to be done. "The first thing that we've learned is that this aging infrastructure is decomposing and is not being well-maintained, and that has to be addressed immediately," Foley said. "The second most important lesson is that there is a galvanization of community support to decommission these rigs, so long as we are able to transfer those 'dirty energy' jobs to 'clean energy' jobs and take care of the workers." Foley said the spill's effects rippled through the coastal community—from local fisheries and surf schools that lost business, to damaged properties and canceled events, including the Pacific Airshow that had been scheduled that weekend.
Three years before ban takes effect, state banning most fracking permits - California regulators haven’t approved permits for the controversial oil and gas extraction process known as fracking since February, effectively phasing out the process ahead of Gov. Gavin Newsom’s 2024 deadline to end it.The state’s Geologic Energy Management Division, known as CalGEM, has rejected an unprecedented 109 fracking permits in 2021, the San Francisco Chronicle reported. That’s the most denials the division has issued in a single year since California began permitting fracking in 2015. Fifty of the permits, mostly from Bakersfield-based Aera Energy, were denied based solely on climate change concerns.State oil and gas supervisor Uduak-Joe Ntuk wrote in a September letter to Aera that he could “not in good conscience” grant the permits “given the increasingly urgent climate effects of fossil-fuel production” and “the continuing impacts of climate change and hydraulic fracturing on public health and natural resources.”Newsom, a Democrat, called in 2020 for state lawmakers to ban the practice by 2024. But a proposal before lawmakers failed, leading Newsom to direct CalGEM to proceed with the timeline on its own. It’s only one piece of Newsom’s climate change agenda, which includes a complete end to oil and gas production in the state by 2045, long after he’s left office.Kern County, where most fracking in the state occurs, and the Western States Petroleum Association have sued the state over the denials. WSPA’s lawsuit, filed in October, argues state law requires CalGEM to permit fracking if it meets technical requirements and that the denials amount to a de facto ban on the process that hasn’t been approved by the Legislature. A hearing in the Kern case is scheduled for Monday and the state must respond to WSPA’s lawsuit by Dec. 2.
Could Methane Unlock A Canadian Natural Gas And Oil Brand Revamp? --A 15-year Canadian research, product development and field testing campaign has made available proven technology capable of reducing methane emissions by more than 45%, according to the oil and gas industry agency leading the environmental effort. “Methane is the key to creating a clean Canadian oil and gas brand,” Petroleum Technology Alliance Canada (PTAC) stated in the Methane Detection and Mitigation Initiatives Report, a 35-page summary of leak detection and mitigation initiatives that it spearheaded. The Canadian Energy Research Institute has estimated a C$700 million ($542 million)-plus cost for oil and gas producers to hit the country’s methane emission targets. PTAC said that research groups of industry and government experts collected “a tsunami of methane emissions data” with mobile remote sensors using lasers and spectrometers mounted on light aircraft, drones, and ground vehicles. To use the information for field operations guidance and devising cleanup methods, the agency formed a methane emission reduction network, or MERN – an industry cleanup cooperative. As an outdoor laboratory and field proving ground, PTAC crews used a 2,500-square-kilometer (965-square-mile) area of central Alberta studded with production sites, pipelines, and processing plants. MERN set out to create and prove technology capable of making a 45% methane emissions cut – and to accomplish the feat economically. The cost target was C$5.00 ($4.00) for a methane emission volume equivalent to a ton of carbon dioxide (CO2). The resulting package put more than 40 technologies on the industrial market. Innovations include capturing and using methane leaks for field equipment fuel and power generation, replacing natural gas with compressed air in pneumatic hardware, new electric devices, improved pumps, and low-carbon emissions combustion. GHG reductions achieved by methane leak control exceed gains from tackling only CO2 emissions by a wide margin, said PTAC. The agency cited an international environmental measurement known as GWP, short for global warming potential. The yardstick rates a ton of methane emissions as equal to 28-36 tons of CO2 per century and 84-87 tons over a 20-year period.
Mexico to end oil exports in 2023 in bid to meet its own fuel needs--Mexico plans to end crude oil exports in 2023 as part of a strategy by the nationalist government of Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador to reach self-sufficiency in the domestic fuels market. Pemex will reduce crude oil exports to 435,000 barrels a day in 2022 before phasing out sales to clients abroad the following year, Chief Executive Officer Octavio Romero said during a press conference in Mexico City on Tuesday. The move is part of a drive by Lopez Obrador to expand Mexico’s domestic production of fuels instead of sending its oil abroad while it imports costly refined products, like gasoline and diesel. Mexico currently buys the bulk of the fuels it consumes from U.S. refineries. If fulfilled, Pemex’s pledge will mark the withdrawal from the international oil market by one of its most prominent players of the past decades. At its peak in 2004, Pemex exported almost 1.9 million barrels a day to refineries from the Japan to India, and was a participant in meetings by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries as observer. Last month, the Mexican company sold abroad slightly more than one million daily barrels, according to Pemex data. The export reduction will come as Pemex increases its domestic crude processing, which will reach 1.51 million barrels a day in 2022 and 2 million daily barrels in 2023, Romero said. The Mexican driller will plow all of its production into its six refineries, including a facility under construction in the southeastern state of Tabasco and another one being bought near Houston, Texas. This plant is considered part of Mexico’s refining system even if located across the U.S. border. Asian refineries, which account for more than a quarter of Mexican crude exports, are expected to bear the brunt of the export cuts. The reductions are expected to hit refiners in South Korea and India the hardest, with smaller cuts seen to buyers in the U.S. and Europe, as Pemex backtracks on earlier plans to diversify away from the U.S. market.
Mexico To End Oil Exports In 2023 - Mexico will suspend crude oil exports in two years in a bid to focus on domestic self-sufficiency, Bloomberg has reported.The move is part of President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador’s plan to increase local fuel production to reduce dependence on imported fuels. The export phase-out announcement was made by the chief executive of Pemex, Octavio Romero, who also said that Mexico would reduce oil exports from next year by more than 50 percent, to 435,000 bpd. Currently, Mexico is the third-largest oil exporter in the Americas, after the United States and Canada, according to data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration.The main destinations for its crude are its northern neighbors in North America and China, India, and South Korea, as well as European countries. A cut in exports could make some of these importers look for alternative suppliers. Fuel demand in Mexico has risen during the pandemic but local oil production has failed to follow. Refining capacity is also a problem, although President Lopez Obrador’s plans include the construction of a new refinery with a capacity of 340,000 bpd. The refinery has a price tag of $12.4 billion, according to calculations from earlier this year, as reported by Argus. If Mexico indeed stops exporting crude oil, this will hit U.S. Gulf Coast refiners hard as it will cut off yet another source of heavy oil, for which their refineries have been configured. Another major source of heavy crude used to be Venezuela, but U.S. sanctions against Caracas ended the flow of heavy Venezuelan crude to the Gulf Coast.According to the Bloomberg report, there are also doubts about Pemex’s own capacity of refining all of its crude oil output. A long period of underinvestment in refinery maintenance has reduced operating capacity significantly, and it is questionable whether the state energy giant would be able to turn things around in just two years.Pemex is currently the most indebted oil company in the world despite major efforts by the Lopez Obrador government to support it through tax breaks and other debt-relief measures.
Petrobras completes sale of onshore acreage --Brazilian energy company Petrobras said December 29 it concluded the sale of its entire holdings in 27 onshore exploration and production assets in the Espirito Santo basin. “This transaction is in line with the company's portfolio management strategy and the improved allocation of its capital, aiming to maximize value and provide greater return to society. Petrobras is increasingly concentrating its resources on assets in deep and ultradeep waters, where it has shown a great competitive edge over the years, producing better quality oil and with lower greenhouse gas emissions,” the company, known formally as Petroleo Brasileiro, stated. The sale concluded with a final payment of $27mn, on top of the $11mn paid on signing in August. The company can expect another $118mn in contingent payments tied to future oil prices. Production rates of crude oil and natural gas were relatively minor, though most of the output was in the form of natural gas. The sale announced follows a December 23 announcement from Petrobras that it sold its interest in the onshore Carmopolis area to Carmo Energy for $1.1bn. The Carmopolis area comprises 11 production concessions in the Brazilian state of Sergipe, with access to oil and gas processing, storage and transportation infrastructure. The cluster averaged 7,600 barrels/day of oil and 43,000 m3/d of gas in November.
Fueled by Vaca Muerta, Argentina Oil, Natural Gas Production Riding Hot Streak - Argentina continues to ramp up its oil and gas production amid high prices and a push from the government to increase output. November oil production was up 15% year/year to 557,000 b/d, the highest monthly figure in nine years, Energy Secretary Darío Martínez said recently. The improvement is mainly because of the Vaca Muerta formation in western Argentina, the Energy Secretariat said. Production from unconventional plays jumped 64% in November. “We are moving in the right direction and that allows us to promote a key sector for the growth of Argentina,” Martínez said.After a general slump in 2020, oil and gas activity has now exceeded pre-pandemic numbers, Martínez said. “In a world of uncertainty, oil and gas production in Argentina is providing the country certainty.” Natural gas production hit 128 million cubic meters/day (Mm3/d) in November, up 10% compared with the same month last year. Unconventional plays saw 40.9% growth in the same comparison.Earlier this month, the Argentine government announced an infrastructure project to further spur natural gas production from Vaca Muerta and to reduce the nation’s reliance during winter months on liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports. A second phase of the project might include potential export infrastructure, President Alberto Fernández said.The $1.5 billion first phase would involve constructing the 24 Mm3/d Néstor Kirchner pipeline. The pipeline would run from Tratayen in Neuquén to Salliqueló in Buenos Aires province. Other construction includes upgrades to the Gasoducto Norte pipeline system, which would allow natural gas to reach northern Argentina and potentially displace Bolivian gas imports. The news comes as Argentina comes out of a winter of high LNG needs. Infrastructure bottlenecks in Neuquén have also slowed growing domestic production.In a hydrocarbons promotion bill sent to congress in September, Argentina’s government said natural gas would be an essential part of the country’s energy transition. The bill includes price stabilization mechanisms, and guarantees that volumes produced for export will see preferential tax rates and access to capital markets. This would be in addition to current incentive programs in the sector.
Nord Stream 2 startup waiting on German regulatory approval--Gazprom PJSC has finished preparing the controversial Nord Stream 2 pipeline for natural gas exports to Europe, yet actual deliveries depend on how quickly regulators grant the project approval amid souring relations between Russia and Western nations. “Nord Stream 2 is ready for operations,” Russian President Vladimir Putin said Wednesday at a meeting with energy officials broadcast on Rossiya 24 TV. “Now everything depends on our partners, consumers in Europe, in Germany,” he said. The pipeline can start delivering “large additional volumes of Russian gas” to the continent as soon as European regulators certify the project operator, Putin said. It’s designed to carry as much as 55 billion cubic meters per year from Russia to Germany across the Baltic Sea. Europe is facing a supply crunch that has pushed fuel and power prices to record levels this year, with inventories abnormally low and insufficient inflows to the continent. While shipments of liquefied natural gas have provided some recent relief, benchmark gas prices are up about 400% this year and could remain elevated into early 2023. Putin’s statement came just hours after Gazprom completed filling the second line of the twin link with so-called technical gas in order to build up pressure required for pumping fuel along the line. The procedure, which was completed on the first line in October, is the final technical step for Nord Stream 2, with certification the only remaining hurdle before actual gas deliveries can begin. The pipeline has been a source of tensions between Russia and Western nations over the past five years. Officials from the U.S. and a number of countries in eastern Europe, including Poland and Ukraine, have protested that it would give Gazprom additional leverage over the European market. The timeframe of Nord Stream 2’s start became a critical issue for the continent after Europe’s energy deficit became severe several months ago. While Gazprom, the single-largest supplier of gas to Europe, has been fully meeting its supply obligations under long-term contracts, it hasn’t offered spot gas with deliveries in late 2021 or early 2022 to European clients for several months, exacerbating the shortage. The German regulator Bundesnetzagentur earlier this month said it doesn’t expect to certify the Nord Stream 2 operator in the first half of 2022. The delay comes as the company needs to set up a German subsidiary to comply with European Union legislation. This signaled to the energy-hungry European market that the Russian pipeline may only start operating once stockpiling for next winter is already well under way. Nord Stream 2 was initially expected to begin operating by the end of 2019, but it has faced multiple hurdles, including U.S. sanctions targeting the project’s insurers and pipe-laying ships. Its construction was finally completed in September. However, Germany and the U.S. have indicated the start of the link could be at risk if Russia, which earlier this year escalated its troop presence near the border with Ukraine, were to attack its neighbor.
European Gas Prices Surge Above 100 Euros With Eyes on Russia.Europe’s benchmark natural gas price rose above 100 euros, or $190 per barrel of oil equivalent, ahead of a series of auctions for pipeline capacity that are seen as a test of Russia’s willingness to ease a supply crunch.The day-ahead auctions for space on Ukrainian pipelines and capacity at Germany’s Mallnow compressor station will provide a strong signal for how serious Russia is about increasing flows to the west. While the region’s biggest supplier has said it aims to keep refilling European storage sites until the end of December, it hasn’t used short-term auctions to ship more fuel. So right now we have this situation which is going to make your head spin. Europe is out of gas. They’ve spent the better part of the last decade getting rid of their own domestic energy, replacing it with baubles and toys, which, while scoring big on the woke scorecard, have proven abysmal at producing… well, electricity. With Europeans now cold and very shortly hungry we are due for a war. Remember that historically, the spiraling food prices have caused civil unrest, revolutions, and wars. You can’t make fertilizer without urea and natural gas. As the price of either of these goes higher (both are), it significantly impacts the price of fertilizer. The price of fertilizer impacts in turn the price of food. This is because fert is the second largest cost component of most agricultural production. The first being… you guessed it, diesel.
Eastward gas supplies jump via Russian Yamal-Europe pipeline (Reuters) - The Yamal-Europe pipeline that usually delivers Russian gas to Western Europe was sending fuel to Poland for the 12th straight day on Saturday at elevated levels, data from German network operator Gascade shows. Flows at the Mallnow metering point on the German-Polish border were going east into Poland at an hourly volume of more than 5.2 million kilowatt hours (kWh/h) on Saturday morning, the data shows, up from around 1.2 million kWh/h in the previous 24 hours. The pipeline is a major route for Russian gas exports to Europe. At the same time, requests for westward flows through the pipeline into Germany at the Mallnow station emerged on Friday for Jan. 1 at 8.3 million kWh/h and now stand at more than 6 million kWh/h. Auction results showed Russian gas exporter Gazprom GAZP.MM has not booked gas transit capacity for exports via the Yamal-Europe pipeline for Saturday. The company booked 8.3 million kWh/h of gas transit capacity via the Yamal-Europe pipeline for January in a last-month auction. Russian President Vladimir Putin said last week that Germany was reselling Russian gas to Poland and Ukraine rather than relieving an overheated market, putting blame for the reversal, and rocketing prices, on German gas importers. The German Economy Ministry has declined comment on Putin's remark. Gas importers have not responded to Reuters requests for comment.
Eastbound gas flows rise along Yamal pipeline but westbound requests emerge (Reuters) - Flows along the Yamal-Europe pipeline that carries Russian gas west into Europe remained reversed for a 12th day and increased on Saturday, but requests for westbound deliveries suggested the unusual reversal might end soon. The pipeline annually delivers about one-sixth of the gas Russia sends to Europe and Turkey. Gas was flowing east from Germany into Poland at an elevated rate early Saturday, with data at the Mallnow metering point on the border showing at an hourly volume of more than 5.2 million kilowatt hours (kWh/h) versus around 1.2 million kWh/h in the previous 24 hours. But on Friday requests for westbound gas emerged via Mallnow for Jan. 1 at 8.3 million kWh/h and on Saturday stood at more than 6 million kWh/h, data from German network operator Gascade showed. Russian gas exporter Gazprom GAZP.MM has not booked gas transit capacity on the pipeline for Saturday, auction results showed. Gazprom booked 8.3 million kWh/h of gas transit capacity via the pipeline for January in an auction last month. The reversed flows which began in Dec 21 sent already high European gas prices to record highs. Those high spot prices, and traders using up their annual volumes of contracted gas from Gazprom early prompted sellers in Germany, for example, to tap storage to sell to buyers in Poland, prompting the unusual reversal of flows, according to analysts and industry sources. Separately, Russian gas flows from Ukraine to Slovakia via the Velke Kapusany border point, another major route, fell to their lowest volume since Nov 2. Capacity nominations for Saturday were down to 524,631 megawatt hours (MWh) from 887,094 MWh on Friday, data from Slovak pipeline operator Eustream showed.
LNG Tanker Bound For Asia Turns Around, Heads To Europe For Massive Arbitrage Opportunity --Fuel-starved Europe is attracting liquefied natural gas (LNG) tankers from around the world. We reported Monday that a flotilla of US LNG is headed to the continent. There are reports that tankers in the Pacific are turning around and ditching Chinese markets for Europe. Bloomberg reports LNG tanker Hellas Diana (IMO: 9872987) left Corpus Christi, Texas, on Nov. 27 has since made a U-turn near Hawaii and is traveling back to the Panama Canal and is likely headed to Europe. So far, seven tankers bound for Asia have diverted to Europe as there are massive arbitrage opportunities for US LNG amid an energy crunch on the continent. Even though Dutch TTF natural gas prices soared to record highs last week and have since been halved on the news, a US LNG flotilla is in the Atlantic headed for the continent. There is still a lot of money to be made as Europeans are willing to pay a heft premium. The massive blowout spread between US and EU natural gas prices has more than halved but is considerably higher than the beginning of the year -- implying there's money to be made in sending US LNG to Europe rather than Asia. As long as European natural gas prices remain elevated, more tankers will be diverted to the fuel-starved continent as Russian gas flows remain depressed.
LNG Cargoes Enter Europe As British Power Bills To Remain High Until 2023 - Europe's energy crunch is far from over, but a flotilla of liquefied natural gas (LNG) tankers from the U.S. are set to resupply the fuel-starved continent. European gas prices fell for the sixth day, the longest decline in more than a year. Even though natural gas prices are retreating from record highs, household power bills, especially in Brittian, are likely to remain high until 2023. This year, Dutch TTF natural gas prices surged more than 400% on low supplies ahead of the Northern Hemisphere winter and Russia reducing flows. The news of the flotilla of U.S. LNG tankers headed to the region last week began the decline, nearly halving gas prices. On Wednesday, prices slumped again, down as much as 10%, for the sixth consecutive session but remained five times higher than the five-year average. Even though new data shows, the US-EU shipping lane is clogged with LNG tankers headed for Europe, as many as 20 at the moment -- there is reason to believe this will only be a temporary relief. "Europe's gas problem may not go away next year," said Andrew Hill, head of European gas analysis at BloombergNEF, in a report on Wednesday."Geopolitical issues and acrimony with Russia, particularly around the Nord Stream 2 pipeline, will increase the scope for Russia to limit flows to Europe in the first half of the year, and potentially much longer," Hill explained. The good news is that LNG supplies are entering the grid as current weather outlooks are mild for the time being. Also, electricity and gas suppliers are warning the energy crunch will persist through 2023. According to the Financial Times, British households will feel the pain of unprecedented power bills for at least another 18 months. Martin Young, an analyst at Investec, said, "directionally, we could see further upward pressure on household energy bills come October 2022."
LNG shipping’s wild ride: Record, plunge, new record, new plunge --Shippers of containerized goods were caught off guard this year. Never before had container spot rates risen so far, so fast. But shippers of liquid and dry bulk commodities know such cost swings all too well.When bulk commodity transport demand exceeds supply, shipping spot rates can keep rising until cargo shippers’ profit margins are erased. The spectacular rise and fall of liquefied natural gas shipping rates is the latest example.LNG carriers boast the highest day rates of any cargo vessel type. Shippers can afford to pay eye-wateringly high freight because the profit on moving a cargo can be enormous: In mid-November, a cargo could be bought for $20 million in the U.S. and sold for $120 million in Asia.The wild ride for spot rates began early this year as cold temperatures pushed up commodity pricing in Asia. An LNG carrier was chartered for $350,000 per day in January, a new all-time high for any cargo vessel. Then rates crashed. U.S. Gulf-Japan rates were down to just $16,800 in mid-March.Rates rebounded to a new record high last month. The Baltic Exchange assessment for the Australia-Japan route for a tri-fuel, diesel-engine (TFDE) LNG carrier peaked at $366,700 per day in late November. Lloyd’s List reported that one vessel was chartered for $424,000 per day.Then pricing collapsed. As of Tuesday, the Baltic’s Australia-Japan TFDE assessment was all the way down to $107,100 per day. Clarksons Platou Securities put the global average for TFDE LNG ships at $114,800 per day, down from a high of $205,000 in late November.“There could be a spike should weather get cold, but very likely the peak in shipping rates for the next few years already happened,” said Stifel analyst Ben Nolan.Extremely high spot rates generally coincide with higher LNG pricing in Asia than in Europe. That incentivizes transport of more U.S. cargoes to Asia as opposed to Europe, and more European reexports of LNG to Asia. More long-haul voyages soak up vessel capacity, boosting rates.Commodity pricing is now in a reverse — and highly unusual — situation: LNG cargoes are fetching more in Europe than in Asia, as Europe heads into the winter with decade-low inventories and restricted Russian pipeline inflows.Nolan said on Tuesday, “With the European price of gas surging past the Asian price, more cargoes are staying or being routed to the Atlantic. The result of shorter average distances with more U.S., Middle Eastern and African cargoes going to Europe instead of Asia is not good news for shipping.”
LNG trade flow dynamics shift as inter basin derivative spreads turn positive -- Inter-basin spreads returned to positive territory, signaling better economics for delivering LNG to Asia, as European prices came off faster amid mild weather forecast through January. The market dynamics shifted quickly, with most cargoes still heading to Europe in the Atlantic Basin Dec. 31, based on data from S&P Global Platts' vessel-tracking software tool cFlow. Deals concluded based on the flip in spreads, assuming the trend sticks, likely won't shift the direction of trade flows for several weeks, according to sources. The change in spreads characterized the volatility in the LNG markets in 2021. The spread between the Platts JKM, the benchmark for spot-traded LNG delivered to Northeast Asia, and the Dutch TTF European gas hub is often used as a sign of arbitrage potential between the Atlantic and Pacific basins. JKM/TTF March derivatives finished the day in positive territory for the first time since Dec. 13, trading at 45 cents/MMBtu before the close of the holiday-shortened London session Dec. 31. The latest weather forecasts suggest that most of Europe is set for warmer-than-usual temperatures in January, following mild weather during second-half December. That could drive bearish conditions in the European gas markets, which have retreated sharply from a record high Dec. 21. Market sources in Asia reported some latent buying interest from Japanese buyers, although most did not commit, preferring to reevaluate demand and inventory status after New Year's Day. US Gulf Coast FOB cargoes were closer to a toss-up from a netback standpoint when combined with the dramatic declines in shipping rates over the last month. Maximum waiting days for unreserved LNG tankers transiting the Panama Canal were in the low single digits in both directions, though they have slightly risen recently. Platts assessed the US FOB Gulf Coast marker for February at $21/MMBtu Dec. 31, down $5/MMBtu day on day and almost $34/MMBtu from a record high set Dec. 21. The current value is the lowest since Nov. 1. The US Gulf Coast versus Northwest Europe differential for February stood at $1.613/MMBtu. The arbitrage was effectively closed, when factoring in the Platts-assessed USGC-NWE freight rate of around $1.57/MMBtu and loading terminal lifting and destination terminal regasification costs.
Ukraine orders gas producers to sell 20% of output on energy exchange (Reuters) - Ukraine has called on private gas producers to sell at least 20% of their production on the country's energy exchange until April 30 to help avert winter shortages, the government said on Friday. Record high prices in Europe have tempted Ukrainian gas producers to export, straining supply in a country that is a net importer of gas. The government on Friday also decided to cap the price mark-up to 25% on gas sales to food producers as it looks to rein in double-digit inflation. Inflation in Ukraine has exceeded 10% in the second half of 2021 for the first time since 2018, despite the central bank tightened monetary policy as it targets a rate of 5%. Prime Minister Denys Shmygal last week promised that the government would prepare measures to help food producers, including bakers, cope with expensive gas. At the beginning of the year, the government limited the rise in gas prices for households by switching retail consumers to annual contracts with state energy company Naftogaz, fixing prices until the end of April 2022.
European gas traders suggest high energy prices will persist beyond winter --For a glimpse of how much longer this year’s energy crunch is going to last, look no further than the European natural gas market. Forward prices have more than doubled over the past month, with traders betting the unprecedented squeeze will last into early 2023. Gas will be expensive even when the weather is hot. Prices for the summer exceeded 100 euros ($113) a megawatt-hour this week, the highest on record. Europe is facing an energy crisis, with Russia curbing supplies and nuclear outages in France straining power grids in the coldest months of the year. And there’s no relief in sight. Germany said Russia’s controversial Nord Stream 2 pipeline won’t be approved in the first half of 2022, a move that will probably keep supplies capped in the summer, when Europe need gas to fill storage sites. “Help does not appear to be on the way,” said Kaushal Ramesh, a senior analyst at consultants Rystad Energy in Norway. The increase in forward prices is “suggesting another year of volatility and a continued high price environment.” Geopolitical tensions between Russia and Ukraine are also keeping traders on edge, with heightened concerns about a possible invasion. At his annual press conference on Thursday, President Vladimir Putin didn’t directly mention the threat of military action, but said an expansion of North Atlantic Treaty Organization expansion up to Russia’s borders was unacceptable. While a flotilla of liquefied natural gas tankers is currently heading to Europe, the region will remain at the mercy of global markets to ensure it continues to get cargoes throughout next year.
Worldwide Oil, Natural Gas Discoveries in 2021 Said Lowest in Decades - Global oil and natural gas discoveries in 2021 were tracking to hit their lowest full-year level in 75 years and decline considerably from 2020. Total discovered volumes through November were calculated at 4.7 billion boe, according to an analysis by Rystad Energy. No major discoveries had been announced through the first three weeks of December, setting the industry on course for its “worst discoveries toll since 1946.”By comparison, around 12.5 billion boe was unearthed around the globe in 2020, the consultancy noted.“Liquids continue to dominate the hydrocarbon mix, making up 66% of total finds,” the Rystad team said of 2021 discoveries. Seven were announced in November, with an estimated 219 million boe of new oil and gas volumes. Through Dec. 20, the monthly average of discovered volumes in 2021 stood at 424 million boe. The reduction in cumulative volumes “highlights the absence of large individual finds, as has been the case in previous years,” according to researchers. “Although some of the highly ranked prospects are scheduled to be drilled before the end of the year, even a substantial discovery may not be able to contribute toward 2021 discovered volumes as these wells may not be completed in this calendar year,” said Rystad’s Palzor Shenga, vice president of upstream research. “Therefore, the cumulative discovered volume for 2021 is on course to be its lowest in decades.” The Yoti West discovery off the coast of Mexico was the largest announced discovery in November, according to Rystad. Russia’s Lukoil estimated Yoti holds around 75 million boe of recoverable resources. An assessment plan is to be developed based on additional drilling results, Lukoil said. The company won rights to the block, which it shares with Italy’s Eni SpA (40%), in 2017.“The discovery strengthens Lukoil’s cumulative discovered volumes in the North American nation,” the Rystad researchers said. “However, these volumes are still insufficient for commercial development and would require further discoveries of a comparable scale before a development concept could be drawn up.”Still, the discoveries “give hope to Mexico that the country can halt or slow down its production decline. Several wells were scheduled to be drilled in blocks offered in various bid rounds, many by leading international oil companies.”Another big discovery in November was offshore Malaysia, Nangka-1. It was the second successive exploration well drilled within Block SK 417. The wildcat, drilled to a depth of 3,758 meters, was by Thailand’s PTT Exploration and Production Public Co. Ltd., which has followed other discoveries offshore Malaysia by PTTEP, as it is known. Sweet gas was discovered within the Middle to Late Miocene Cycle VI clastic reservoirs, researchers said.
APA, Sinopec to recover $900MM of “backlogged costs” in Egyptian project--APA Corp. and its Chinese partner in an Egyptian oil project will recover almost $900 million in prior investments under a new drilling contract with the North African nation. APA was the day’s best performer in the S&P 500 Index.APA and Sinopec will collect the “backlogged costs” over a five-year period that began on April 1, the Houston-based explorer formerly known as Apache said in a statement on Monday.Under the terms of the so-called production-sharing contract, the partners also plan to deploy more rigs and boost crude production. APA and Sinopec agreed to jointly pay Egypt a $100 million signing bonus. APA rose 6.1% to $27.67 at 1:14 p.m. in New York after earlier touching $27.68. The agreement, which comes almost nine years after APA sold Sinopec a 33% stake in its Egyptian business for $3.1 billion, included technical revisions such as consolidating most of the venture’s output within a single concession. The deal followed two years of negotiations to improve returns on the project for APA and Sinopec after back-to-back oil busts crimped profitability. The joint venture agreed to invest a minimum of $3.5 billion on research, development and production in Egypt’s western desert, the Oil Ministry said in a separate statement.
Oil spills hit 14m litres as Shell’s N800b judgment upsets industry - As International Oil Companies (IOCs) are planning to divest from Nigeria, concerns are beginning to mount over growing cases of oil spillage in the Niger Delta region and the N800 billion court judgment between Shell Nigeria and some communities in the region. In less than three years, weak infrastructure, especially pipelines, according to stakeholders, has led to the spillage of 14 million litres of crude oil, worth N2.8 billion coupled with cascading environmental dangers and health burden, leading to increase in cases of infant mortality and cancers. In fact, fresh intrigues are beginning to emerge ahead January, when the court would decide the fate of Shell Nigeria in an N800 billion damages earlier awarded by the Federal High Court in Owerri for the 2019 spillage in Eleme communities of River State. The jury is nearly out in the biggest dispute award ever in Nigeria’s volatile oil industry. But whether Shell Petroleum Development Company (SPDC) Limited, along with its two parent companies in the United Kingdom and The Hague, Netherlands, can come clean of culpability in a historic dispute debt awarded against it in a spill that occurred on swamp farmlands in Egbalor, Ebubu in Eleme Local Government Area of Rivers State, is what industry watchers are waiting to see next month. Shell, using all its legal resources, is seeking to convince the judge at the Court of Appeal to obviate payment of damages to some 88 persons, who got judgment in November 2020 from a Federal High Court in Owerri over spillage on their fishing facilities in Ejalawa community, Oken-Ogogu swamp farmlands. The judge of the Federal High Court, Owerri, Imo State, T.G. Ringim, had in the judgment last year, held that Shell Nigeria, Shell International Exploration and Production BV (SIE&P) and the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation (NNPC) were liable for the spill. Isaac Torchi and 87 members of the Ejalawa community had gone to court against SPDC, SIE&P BV and NNPC over oil spillage in January 2020, which they claimed destroyed their environment and their sources of livelihood – mainly fishing and agriculture. Earlier in August this year, the Anglo-Dutch oil giant finally agreed to pay N45.7 billion to the Ejama-Ebubu community, after 31 years of legal tussle. The court has fixed January 25, 2022 to hear the oil company’s application.
Nembe Oil Spill: Prosecute Culprits To Avert Future Occurrence – Groups --Concerned groups, including environmental rights groups and ethnic youth leaders, have welcomed the findings of the joint investigation visit which attributed the recent oil spill in Nembe to human sabotage. The groups, which include Friends of the Environment, Nigerian Ethnic Youth Leaders Council (NEYLC), the Niger Delta Youth Movement (NDYM), and the African Centre for Justice and Human Rights (ACJHR) made their positions known in their separate reactions to the findings. They described the report that human sabotage caused the spill as truth based on science and facts that must be applauded by all stakeholders. They agreed that the findings should be used to get the culprits and avert future occurrences. The groups, in applauding AITEO which has been vindicated by the findings, said they entertained no fear from the beginning that being a socially responsible company, the spill could not have been caused by AITEO’s negligence. They said the report which absolved the company of any fault or wrongdoing has further confirmed the saying that if lies travel for 20 years, the truth will catch up with it in one day. “This is a vindication for AITEO. Findings have shown that the spill, as we have been suspecting from the beginning, was an act of sabotage by enemies of the Federal Government and a plot to undermine President Buhari’s Niger Delta agenda,” the NEYLC, which is made up of the Arewa Consultative Youth Movement, Ohanaeze Ndigbo Youth Movement, Oduduwa Youths and Middle Belt Youths said in a statement signed by the Acting Head of the coalition’s secretariat, Nduka Edede Chinomso . The Niger Delta Youth Movement (NDYM) regretted that while experts in the industry, with their science-based evidence, believe the spill was sabotage, the Bayelsa State Government’s agents were using emotion to look for scapegoats. “What the findings have shown us that the Bayelsa State Government had since been playing on the emotion of the people of the area and indeed all stakeholders. “With this evidence and science-based findings, we hope that the state government will be humble enough to make a public apology based on the wrong position it earlier took on the matter,” the group said in a statement. The popular environmental rights group, Friends of the Environment, in its separate statement, said the issue of the six persons who were arrested at the scene at about 2.30 am when the spill happened should not be overlooked by the state government. It said in a statement, “Six persons were said to have been arrested at the scene at an ungodly hour of about 2.30 am. “This revelation is very key and should not be overlooked by the state government and all others concerned.”
Shell ordered to pause seismic survey offshore South Africa --Royal Dutch Shell Plc has been ordered by a South African court to temporarily halt an offshore seismic survey after local communities took legal action to block the project. The groups on Tuesday were granted an interim interdict that will stand until a ruling can be made on whether further environmental authorization is required, according to the judgment by a High Court in the Eastern Cape division. The claimants argue the activity will harm local marine life and disrupt fishing, while Shell maintains the practice has been in use for decades to search for oil and gas. “We respect the court’s decision and have paused the survey while we review the judgment,” a Shell spokesman said. “If viable resources were to be found offshore, this could significantly contribute to the country’s energy security.” The ruling follows a public outcry against Shell’s project, which is taking place along South Africa’s Wild Coast, a remote stretch of eastern shoreline where whales are frequently spotted. Mineral Resources and Energy Minister Gwede Mantashe has defended the activity, citing a dozen seismic surveys conducted in the past five years. He is also a respondent in the case. Local groups in the Wild Coast are concerned that they were not properly consulted and of the impact the survey will have on the climate, communities and marine life, Judge Gerald Bloem wrote, adding that Shell’s community notification was flawed. The decision comes after a separate legal attempt brought by groups including Greenpeace failed to stop the activity earlier this month. In that case, a different judge dismissed the assertion of irreparable harm to marine life as speculative. Environmental groups are globally pushing Shell and others to halt oil and gas developments in their earliest stages or before they even start. Mantashe and the energy giant have been ordered to pay costs of the application for the interim interdict. No date has been set for a decision on whether authorization will be required under the National Environmental Management Act. Shell has said it already has the appropriate permission to conduct the survey.
Indian State Oil Giant To Significantly Expand Oil Exploration -Indian state firm Oil and Natural Gas Corporation (ONGC) plans to raise fourfold its exploration and production acreage by 2025, India’s petroleum minister said on Thursday, as the world’s third-biggest oil importer looks to reduce its large dependence on crude imports.ONGC’s strategy for the future includes boosting the E&P acreage from the current 127,000 square kilometers to 500,000 square kilometers by 2025, Indian Petroleum and Natural Gas Minister Hardeep Singh Puri tweeted on Thursday after visiting the company’s integrated energy center in Maharatna.The state oil firm will “also focus on green hydrogen & other sources of enhancing domestic petroleum & natural gas production in the country which will contribute in reducing the fuel import bill,” the minister added.ONGC accounts for around 75 percent of India’s oil and gas production, while its long reserve life of 15 years provides visibility on future cash flows and is comparable to that of ‘A’ rated peers, Fitch Ratings said in a report on the company earlier this month. Fitch has a ‘bbb+’ standalone credit profile (SCP) rating on ONGC.The company’s chairman Subhash Kumar told local outlet The Tribune in an interview this week that the Himachal Pradesh state in northern India had “immense potential in oil and natural gas exploration.”In recent months, India has not been happy with its import bill as its economy and refiners are more sensitive to international crude oil prices than some other oil-importing nations. India, where imports meet more than 80 percent of oil demand, is one of the large oil consumers that has repeatedly called on OPEC+ to increase oil production more than planned in order to cool the rally in prices. Last month, reports emerged that India was looking to boost its domestic oil production by asking ONGC to weigh a potential sale of majority stakes in two large offshore oil and gas fields.
Ship's captain gets 20 months in jail for oil spill, admitted to "partying" - The Bharat Express News - Sunil Kumar Nandeshwar admitted to drinking and partying (performance) The captain and first officer of a bulk carrier, which triggered the biggest environmental disaster in Mauritius, have been sentenced to 20 months in prison in this island nation in the Indian Ocean. Sunil Kumar Nandeshwar, the captain, and Subodha Tilakaratna, the first officer of MV Wakashio were sentenced on Monday by the Mauritius Intermediate Court. Both pleaded guilty on December 20 to the charge of endangering the safety of navigation. The two men having been in police custody for nearly 16 months and the guilty plea signifying leniency in the pronouncement of the sentence, the duration of the imprisonment is deemed to have been completed. “If we take into account the time spent in pre-trial detention and in remand for good behavior, the sentence can be considered served,” said Amira Peeroo, lawyer for Tilakaratna, in a telephone interview from Port Louis, after sentence. Mauritius has battled widespread pollution from the oil spill, which threatened the livelihoods of communities that depend on the ocean, and the Blue Bay Marine Reserve, popular with snorkelers. Mauritius’ economy relies on tourists flocking to its white sand beaches is also reeling from the fallout from the coronavirus. ALSO READ Biden told team to 'prepare' for failed nuclear talks with Iran: Psaki The 300-meter-long Japanese ship was en route to Brazil from China when it deviated from course on the evening of July 25, 2020 and struck a coral reef. Two weeks later, the fuel oil began to leak with about 1000 tonnes reaching the coast. The ship then broke in two and sank. Nandeshwar admitted to drinking and partying. He agreed the ship was sailing near the coast of Mauritius so that they could get mobile phone signals, according to media reports.
There is a semi-abandoned oil tanker off the coast of Yemen - A large oil tanker, the FSO Safer, owned by the US oil company ExxonMobil, has been docked for fourteen years a few miles off the coast of Yemen and is in danger of exploding, catching fire or sinking and spilling a huge amount of oil into the Red Sea. The risk has been compared to the historic 1989 Exxon Valdez disaster: then the supertanker Exxon Valdez, owned by the US oil company Exxon (named ExxonMobil after a 1999 merger), collided with a reef in Prince William Strait, in Alaska. According to estimates by the Exxon Valdez Oil Spill Trustee Council, the committee responsible for rehabilitating the areas affected by the accident, the ship spilled 257,000 barrels of oil into the sea, causing one of the worst ecological disasters in history. The amount of oil that could be lost from the FSO Safer ship is four times that of the Exxon Valdez, and would cause enormous environmental, human and economic damage. «The unit of measurement used for oil tankers is the deadweight, which is the tons that the ship can carry when fully loaded. According to this parameter, the Safer is one of the largest ever, “wrote the journalist Ed Caesar, who reconstructed the story of the supertanker in a long reportage for the New Yorker. Built in 1976 in Japan, the supertanker, which at the time was called Esso Japan, traveled for six years between Europe and the Middle East before being bought by the Hunt Oil Company, a US oil company that had discovered an oil field near Marib. , a city in the hinterland of the then Arab Republic of Yemen (the unification with the People’s Democratic Republic of Yemen and the birth of Yemen as we know it today occurred in 1990). The Hunt Oil Company and Exxon had built a pipeline to transport the oil from Marib to the coast, where there was no facility to store it. Instead of spending hundreds of millions of dollars to build it from scratch, the company converted the Esso Japan ship into a floating terminal. Floating Storage and Offloading unit, FSO), changing its name to FSO Safer and positioning it off the Yemeni coast, north of the port city of Hodeidah. “In the late 1980s, Safer was one of the best places to work in Yemen,” writes Caesar. Some of the crew members were Italians – “including excellent chefs,” he writes – and over time more and more Yemenis found work on the ship. In 2005, FSO Safer became administered by the Safer Exploration & Production Operations Company (SEPOC), a Yemeni state-owned company, while the government began planning to build a coastal terminal to replace it. “The new terminal was half-built when the capital of Yemen, Sana’a, was conquered by the Houtis,” writes Caesar. The Houtis are a Zaydite Shiite militia, a very particular sect of Shiism from the mountains in northern Yemen. Starting in 2011, the Houthis intensified their armed uprising against the government, rebelling first against the regime of President Ali Abdullah Saleh, then against that of his successor, Abdel Rabbo Mansour Hadi. In 2014 the Houtis, with the support of Iran, occupied the capital of Yemen Sana’a and in March 2015 they entered Aden, the provisional capital of the country after the occupation of San’a, causing the flight of President Hadi in Saudi Arabia. Later a coalition of Arab countries led by Saudi Arabia began bombing the Houti positions, starting a war that has continued ever since and that the United Nations and other organizations believe caused the worst humanitarian crisis in the world.
Saudi oil exports surged in October on higher oil prices--Saudi Arabia’s exports soared in October as the world’s biggest oil exporter benefited from higher crude prices. The value of exports jumped to 106.2 billion riyals ($28 billion) from 55.9 billion riyals a year ago, according to the kingdom’s General Authority for Statistics. The share of oil in total exports rose to 77.6% in October from 66.1%. Saudi Arabia’s economy has rebounded this year as oil prices soared and the impact of the coronavirus pandemic eased. This month, the kingdom boosted its revenue forecast for next year, with higher crude output and prices poised to deliver the first budget surplus in eight years and the fastest economic growth since 2011. The value of oil exports rose 123%, or by 45.5 billion riyals, year-on-year in October, according to the statistics authority. Non-oil exports increased 25.5% to 23.8 billion riyals. Oil has gained about 50% this year with a robust rebound from the pandemic, but the rally has faltered recently, in part due to concerns about omicron. There are some signs of tightening emerging, however, with supply disruptions in Libya and Nigeria, while the demand outlook was boosted in recent days by positive news about the severity of omicron.
Fuel for Thought: Asian oil buyers have little room to play around with SPRs -- The word "strategic" in the phrase Strategic Petroleum Reserves is there for a reason and no one understands it better than Asia's biggest oil importers. With the energy security aspirations of Asia's biggest four oil importers—China, India, Japan and South Korea—perpetually vulnerable to global price gyrations, they have increasingly expanded their SPR capacity over the past decades—an effort to ensure they have an emergency oil storage facility that can be used to mitigate oil supply disruptions. But when crude oil prices crossed $85 a barrel earlier this year, Asian oil importers worried this would derail a fragile economic recovery. As a result, for the first time countries like India and China turned to strategic oil reserves to cushion the impact of rising prices. The market also witnessed coordinated SPR releases by Asian consumers, along with the United States. While market reaction to the development has been muted so far, largely because actual releases have come in below expectations, traders have one key question in mind: Will this be an ongoing trend? "Adding a layer of uncertainty is the fact that China and India are large net oil importers. So they will likely seek to restock their strategic buffers at some point." Immediately after the White House announced Nov. 23 that the US will release 50 million barrels from its SPR early next year, India, China, South Korea and Japan followed suit and announced their plans to release SPRs. While India agreed to release 5 million barrels of crude, China is expected to release more crude from state reserves amid expectations that the second set of auctions could potentially include at least 7 million barrels of medium sweet ESPO blend crude. South Korea has agreed to release 3.17 million barrels from its SPRs, including 2.08 million barrels of crude oil and 1.09 million barrels of refined products, over a three-month period starting January. And Japan's sales of national petroleum reserves will be made by advancing its planned sales of crude oil grades for replacement in the national petroleum reserves without violating the country's petroleum stockpiling law. The sales could amount to around "a couple of hundred thousand kiloliters," according to Minister of Economy, Trade and Industry Koichi Hagiuda. Market sources are unanimous in their view that Asian importers will be reluctant to release huge volumes from SPRs and make it an ongoing trend—just as a cushion for high prices. Take the example of India. The country has an SPR capacity of 5.33 million mt. And for the second phase, the federal cabinet has given its approval to build a further 6.5 million mt of SPRs. While the first phase, which is fully filled, can cater to about 9.5 days of India's crude oil requirements, the second phase will add another 12 days. "While state refiners in India also hold substantial volumes of oil, the overall volumes are not big enough. The last thing countries like India will want is expose themselves by releasing huge volumes when prices are high and find themselves being caught off guard when there is a supply disruption," Asian countries have followed a similar model of building SPRs that of the United States. While the idea of stockpiling emergency oil in the US arose as early as 1944, it took the oil embargo of 1973-74 to spur the creation of the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. But for the US, the growth of shale and a large SPR balance provide the country with flexibility to sell SPR stocks to plug fiscal deficits, as Congress has done with budget bills since 2015, as well as enact price-related releases without a need to ever return the barrels. According to Platts Analytics, the Congress appears determined to sell of the majority of the SPR for fiscal reasons. Large deliveries required through 2031 are set to reduce the Reserve's balance to 316 million barrels, versus 695 million barrels as recently as 2016. This would no doubt reduce the flexibility to release strategic stocks during a supply interruption, as the SPR was originally intended. But despite that, the risks for the US would be much lower due to its growing shale sector, compared with some Asian countries like South Korea, which imports 100% of its oil needs, and India, which ships in 85% of its petroleum requirements.
Russia says OPEC+ prioritises mid-term strategy over U.S. calls for more oil (Reuters) - Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said on Wednesday that OPEC+ group of largest oil producers has resisted calls from Washington to boost output because it wants to provide the market with clear guidance and not deviate from policy. The United States has repeatedly pushed OPEC+ to accelerate output hikes as U.S. gasoline prices soared and President Joe Biden's approval ratings slid. Faced with resistance, Washington said in November it and other consumers would release reserves. Asked why OPEC+ rebuffed the calls, Novak said OPEC+ had a long-term vision. "We believe that it would be right for the market to show in the mid-term how we will increase production as demand grows," he told RBC media outlet. "The producing companies should understand beforehand which investments they have to plan in order to ensure a production increase." OPEC and its allies agreed earlier this month to stick to their existing policy of monthly oil output increases despite fears that a U.S. release from crude reserves and the new Omicron coronavirus variant would lead to a fresh oil price rout. Novak also said the possible release of the strategic stockpiles by the United States and other large consumers will have a limited short-term impact on the oil market. He said global oil demand was seen rising by around 4 million barrels per day (bpd) next year after an increase of up to 5 million bpd this year. Novak said an oil price of between $65 and $80 per barrel should be comfortable next year. Currently, oil is trading below $80.
OPEC+ likely to stick to existing oil production policy at Jan. 4 meeting: Reuters --OPEC and its allies will probably stick to their existing policy of modest monthly increases in oil output at a meeting next week, four sources said, as demand concerns raised by the omicron coronavirus variant ease and oil prices recover, according to Reuters. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies, known as OPEC+, is set to decide on Jan. 4 whether to proceed with a 400,000 barrels per day output hike for February, the latest in a steady unwinding of record cuts made last year. “At the moment, I have not heard of any moves to change course,” said an OPEC+ source. A Russian oil source and two other OPEC+ sources also said no changes to the deal were expected next week. At its last meeting on Dec. 2, OPEC+ stuck to the plan for a 400,000 bpd rise in January, despite fears that a US release from crude reserves and omicron would lead to an oil-price rout. The benchmark oil price tumbled more than 10 percent on Nov. 26 toward $72 a barrel when reports of the new variant first appeared, but has since recovered to almost $80 and OPEC+ sources have said the December decision to go ahead with the supply boost was correct. “Great outcome,” a separate OPEC+ source said of the market’s rally since the last meeting. Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said on Wednesday OPEC+ has resisted calls from Washington to boost output further because it wants to provide the market with clear guidance and not deviate from policy. The United States has repeatedly pushed OPEC+ to accelerate output hikes as US gasoline prices soared and President Joe Biden’s approval ratings slid. Faced with resistance, Washington said in November it and other consumers would release reserves. Novak also said on Wednesday the possible release of the strategic stockpiles will have a limited short-term impact on the market. OPEC ministers are also set to discuss who will become the group’s new secretary general to replace Mohammad Barkindo, who is scheduled to leave at the end of July. Kuwait’s candidate for the job has widespread support, sources have said.
Saudi Arabia May Cut Oil Prices For Asia --Saudi Arabia could cut the official selling price for oil to Asian buyers in February after raising them substantially this month.According to a Reuters report citing industry insiders and poll data, the Kingdom could slash the prices for all its export grades by as much as $1 per barrel and more, which would push these prices to their lowest in three to four months.Earlier this month, Saudi Arabia raised its official selling prices for oil to Asia by $0.60 per barrel, which brought them $3.30 per barrel above the Oman/Dubai benchmark. The price hike suggested expectations of strong demand, which in turn implied that Saudi Arabia is not all that worried about the Omicron variant that caused a more than $10 plunge in oil prices in late November, with Brent at one point dipping below $70 per barrel. This month, however, prices have rebounded globally, but the spot market premium for Middles Eastern and Russian grades has fallen by more than 50 percent since the start of the month, Reuters noted in its report. The drop was a result of higher OPEC+ production this month.The price cut for February is in part a move in anticipation of lower demand from Asian buyers as refineries on the continent prepare for maintenance season in the second quarter of the year, Reuters noted.Saudi Arabia will announce its official selling prices for oil after the January OPEC+ meeting, to take place on the 4 th of the month. Asia accounts for more than half of Saudi oil exports.
Oil Futures Chase Equities Higher; Iranian Talks Resume -- Reversing early morning losses, oil futures nearest delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange and Brent crude traded on the Intercontinental Exchange rallied to one-month highs on Monday. Futures found buying support from expectations for demand growth in 2022 amid ongoing economic strength while what is known as the year-end "Santa Claus" rally in financial markets offset some concerns over the rapid spread of the omicron COVID variant across major oil-consuming economies.U.S. stock indexes rose sharply on Monday as investors looked at fresh data from Mastercard's SpendingPulse report that found holiday sales from Nov. 1 through Dec. 24 surged 8.5% year-on-year -- the fastest pace in 17 years. Strong sales came despite ongoing headwinds including supply chain disruptions and growing inflationary pressures joined by the spread of Omicron in December. the United States recorded 189,000 new COVID-19 infections on Christmas Day -- the highest since January.Among latest disruptions from Omicron, U.S. airlines canceled more than 1,800 flights over the holiday weekend because of personnel shortages linked to a spike in cases of the new variant. Real-time flight tracking data from FlightAware showed 951 flights to and from the United States canceled as of Saturday, Dec. 25, afternoon. Delta listed 309 flight cancellations, United had 240, Jet Blue had 123 and American Airlines had 92. The cancellations stoked concerns over demand implications from the Omicron surge as consumers retreat to the safety of their homes and governments renew quarantine restrictions.Still, some analysts believe that the new variant will be successfully mitigated by the vaccines and the rollout of booster shots. In a note to clients Monday, J&P Morgan said, "We do not expect Omicron to impact the growth outlook in any significant way, but rather it is likely to accelerate the end of the pandemic." Also on Monday, oil traders monitored the start of multilateral nuclear talks in Vienna after Iran's negotiators adjourned talks for further consultations with officials in Tehran. Wire services reported Iran's chief negotiator, Ali Bagheri, insisted today that the United States and Western allies guarantee free flow of crude oil exports as a precondition for any agreement. Previous rounds saw similar demands made by Tehran that went unfulfilled. U.S. sanctions have slashed Iran's oil exports -- the country's main revenue source -- from about 2.8 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2018 to as low as 200,000 bpd in late 2020. Reuters survey pegged Iran's oil exports at 600,000 bpd in June.At settlement, NYMEX February West Texas Intermediate futures advanced $1.78 to $75.57 per barrel (bbl), with gains accelerating post-settlement, and the front-month Brent crude rallied $2.46 for a $78.60-per-bbl settlement. NYMEX January RBOB futures surged 2.78 cents to $2.2339 gallon, and the January ULSD contract gained 2.21 cents to $2.3535 gallon.
Oil rises as Omicron concern eases - Oil prices rose on Monday due to hopes that the Omicron COVID-19 variant will have a limited impact on global demand in 2022, even as U.S. crude came under pressure from flight cancellations amid surging cases. More than 1,300 flights were cancelled by U.S. airlines on Sunday as COVID-19 reduced the number of available crews while several cruise ships had to cancel stops. Global benchmark Brent crude ended the day up 3.2%, or $.46, at $78.60 per barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude settled 2.4%, or $1.78, higher at $75.57 per barrel. The U.S. market was closed on Friday for a holiday. "Lower travel equalling lower economic activity in the U.S. equals lower WTI," said Jeffrey Halley, analyst at brokerage OANDA, who added that the divergence between Brent and WTI could reflect that global recovery remains on course. "The disruption to goods and services from isolating workers, notably air travel, seems to be the main fallout so far," he said of rising Omicron cases. "That is only likely to cause short-term nerves, with the global recovery story for 2022 still on track." Brent has risen by more than 45% this year, supported by recovering demand and supply cuts by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies, collectively known as OPEC+. Oil, which plunged by more than 10% on Nov. 26 when reports of a new variant first appeared, gained last week after early data suggested that Omicron could cause a milder level of illness. "Though Omicron is spreading faster than any COVID-19 variant yet, a relatively relieving news is that most people infected with Omicron are showing mild symptoms, at least so far," said Leona Liu, analyst at Singapore-based DailyFX. Talks resume today between world powers and Iran on reviving Tehran's 2015 nuclear deal. Iran on Monday said that oil exports were the focus of the talks, which so far appear to have made little progress on boosting Iran's shipments. Also on investors' radar is the next OPEC+ meeting on Jan. 4, in which the producer alliance will decide whether to go ahead with a planned 400,000 barrels per day (bpd) production increase in February. OPEC+ stuck to its plans at its last meeting to boost output for January despite Omicron.
Oil prices reach four-week high as markets account for Omicron--Oil rose in tandem with equity markets as investors weighed the rapid spread of omicron against signs it may be milder than previous variants. West Texas Intermediate futures surpassed $75 a barrel on Monday for the first time in a month amid light trading. Daily omicron infections in the U.S. have surpassed those in the delta wave, CNN reported, while China posted the highest number of cases since January. Thousands of flight delays and cancellations in the U.S. stemming from airline-employee illnesses were a reminder that the more infectious Covid variant could still wreak havoc. Despite the omicron spread and airline cancellations, mobility numbers were strong over the holiday, said John Kilduff, founding partner at Again Capital LLC. The strong economic activity has played into a “rebound in petroleum demand, which we saw this morning.” Oil is heading for a yearly gain after a robust rebound from the pandemic, but the rally has wavered in recent weeks, in part due to concerns about omicron. There are some signs of softening consumption in Asia and crude market’s structure has weakened significantly, indicating over-supply in the near term. The market structure for international benchmark Brent crude is starting to show signs of optimism. The prompt timespread -- the gap between the two nearest contracts -- has returned to a bullish pattern in recent days after flipping briefly into a bearish contango structure. The spread was 33 cents in backwardation on Monday, compared with as much as 10 cents in contango about a week ago. WTI for February delivery rose $1.82 to $75.61 a barrel at 12:53 p.m. in New York. Brent for February settlement rose $2.51 to $78.65 a barrel. The fast-spreading omicron has forced airlines to cancel some services due to crew shortages, threatening a nascent rebound in jet fuel usage. Anthony Fauci, President Joe Biden’s top medical adviser, said Americans should stay vigilant against the new strain, despite evidence its symptoms may be less severe, because the volume of cases can still overwhelm hospitals.
Oil Futures Rally to Fresh Highs -- Along with rallying equities and a sagging U.S. dollar index, oil futures nearest delivery extended gains into early trade Tuesday amid renewed optimism that the winter wave of omicron-led COVID infections would have a short-lived impact on the global economy as governments mostly resist new quarantine restrictions and consumers have not pulled backed on spending despite the resurgent pandemic. Supporting the sentiment, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention on Monday shortened the recommended quarantine times for the people that have tested positive for COVID-19 from ten days to five days, followed by five days of wearing a mask around others. People who are fully vaccinated and boosted may not need to quarantine at all, the CDC added. The change in CDC guidelines came after several U.S. airlines were forced to cancel nearly 2,000 flights over the Christmas weekend due to staffing shortages, arguing that the lengthy quarantine times were to blame for the staffing problems. Despite a higher transmission rate, the Omicron variant has so far proved to have milder symptoms compared to the original strain of COVID-19 and the Delta variant. United Kingdom said on Monday there would not be any new COVID-19 restrictions in England before the end of 2021 as health authorities await more data on whether hospitals can cope with an Omicron wave of infections. The daily count of new COVID-19 infections in England is at the highest since March at 122,189, although hospitalizations have not yet shown a marked increase. The World Health Organization, meanwhile, cautioned that it could take "several weeks" to assess the severity of the newly discovered Omicron variant. Oil traders will closely monitor any new developments on the Omicron spread and potential implications for global oil demand at the start of the new year. Oil and equity shares were boosted on Monday by data released from Mastercard's SpendingPulse report that found holiday sales from Nov. 1 through Dec. 24 surged 8.5% year-on-year -- the fastest pace in 17 years. This week, oil traders will also monitor the restart of Iranian nuclear talks in Vienna, with early indications suggesting the hardline government in Tehran doubling down on its demands to remove all sanctions before reaching a new comprehensive agreement. Previous rounds saw similar demands made by Tehran that went unfulfilled. U.S. sanctions have slashed Iran's oil exports -- the country's main revenue source -- from about 2.8 million bpd in 2018 to as low as 200,000 bpd in late 2020. Near 7:30 a.m. ET, NYMEX February West Texas Intermediate futures advanced $1.11 to $76.69 per barrel (bbl), and the front-month Brent crude rallied $1 to near $79.60 bbl. NYMEX January RBOB futures surged 2.81 cents or 1.2% to $2.2620 gallon and the January ULSD contract rallied 3.49 cents to $2.3884 gallon.
Oil settles higher despite Omicron concerns (Reuters) - Oil prices settled higher on Tuesday, with Brent crude ending the session near $80 a barrel despite the rapid spread of the Omicron coronavirus variant, supported by supply outages and expectations that U.S. inventories fell last week. Brent crude settled up 34 cents, or 0.4%, at $78.94 a barrel by 1:39 p.m. EST (1839 GMT). U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude settled up 41 cents, or 0.5%, at $75.98. Both contracts traded at their highest levels in a month, aided by strength in U.S. equities. "The stock market appears poised to finish the year at or near record highs with easy spillover into the oil space pushing crude values higher," "Support comes as well from high aggregated production disruptions in Ecuador, Libya and Nigeria and the expectation of another large drop in U.S. crude inventories," . The three oil producers declared forces majeures this month on part of their oil production because of maintenance issues and oilfield shutdowns. A preliminary Reuters poll showed on Monday that U.S. crude oil inventories are likely to have dropped for the fifth week in a row, while gasoline inventories were seen mostly unchanged last week. [EIA/S] England will not face any new COVID-19 restrictions before the end of 2021, British health minister Sajid Javid said on Monday, as the government awaits more evidence on whether the health service can cope with high infection rates. U.S. President Joe Biden, meanwhile, pledged to ease a shortage of COVID-19 tests as the Omicron variant threatens to overwhelm hospitals and stifle travel plans. Omicron-induced staff shortages led to thousands of flight cancellations over the Christmas weekend in the United States. Investors are awaiting an OPEC+ meeting on Jan. 4, at which the alliance will decide whether to go ahead with a planned production increase of 400,000 barrels per day in February. At its last meeting, OPEC+ stuck to its plans to boost output for January despite Omicron. Money managers raised their net long U.S. crude futures and options positions in the week to Dec. 21, the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission said on Monday. The speculator group raised its combined futures and options position in New York and London by 4,634 contracts to 259,093 during the period.7:23 PM
WTI Spikes Near One-Month Highs After Big Crude, Product Inventory Draws - Oil prices have rollercoastered back into the green (back bear one-month highs) this morning after weakness overnight (which could have been driven by reports out of China's Xi'an province of COVID-based driving bans).“Crude oil trades near a one-month high after API’s weekly stock report,” said Ole Hansen, head of commodities strategy at Saxo Bank A/S. The market is “currently betting the omicron virus, despite a global surge, will not derail robust global demand.”So the bulls are hoping the official data backs API, and Biden is hoping it doesn't. API
- Crude -3.09mm (-3.233mm exp)
- Cushing +1.594mm
- Gasoline -319k
- Distillates -716k
DOE:
- Crude -3.576mm
- Cushing +1.055mm
- Gasoline -1.459mm
- Distillates -1.726mm
The official DOE data confirmed API's sizable crude draw and showed bigger than expected product draws while Cushing stocks rose for the 7th straight week... Graphics Source: Bloomberg. Crude production rose to the highest since May 2020... WTI hovered around $75.80 ahead of the print and spiked almost $1 after the big draws... Crude is heading for its biggest annual gain in more than a decade after global consumption recovered from the pandemic with the roll-out of vaccines.
Oil Futures Slip on Profit-taking After Bullish EIA Report -- After initially rallying in response to a bullish weekly report from the U.S. Energy Information Administration, oil futures nearest delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange turned lower amid profit-taking ahead of end-year accounting and the upcoming holiday weekend. The midmorning inventory report showed total commercial petroleum stockpiles fell by a whopping 18.9 million barrels (bbl) during the week ended Dec. 24, with 3.6 million bbl of that drop realized in commercial crude oil inventories. The draw was bullish against expectations for a 3.2 million bbl decline from analysts and estimates of a 3.09 million bbl drawdown by the American Petroleum Institute. At 420 million bbl, nationwide crude oil inventories stand about 7% below the five-year average. Oil stored at Cushing, the delivery point for West Texas Intermediate, rose by 1.1 million bbl from the previous week to 34.7 million bbl. Refiners, meanwhile, increased run rates by 0.1% last week to 89.7% of capacity compared with estimates for a 0.2% decrease. The bearish part of the report could be found on the production side, with domestic operators ramping up crude output by 200,000 barrels per day (bpd) from the previous week to 11.8 million bpd -- a 19 months high. In the gasoline complex, EIA data showed supplies fell by 1.5 million bbl to 222.7 million bbl, about 6% below the five-year average. Earlier this week, analysts were expecting a 200,000 bbl build and API reported a much smaller 319,000 bbl draw from gasoline inventories. Demand for motor gasoline surged 738,000 bpd or 19.6% to 9.724 million bpd -- the highest demand rate since the final week of July. EIA figures were directionally in line with DTN Refined Fuels Demand data that found a 5.1% increase in week-on-week U.S. gasoline demand. Gasoline consumption has mostly remained on par with 2019 levels in the fourth quarter despite ongoing surge in Omicron COVID cases and higher gasoline prices. The strength in gasoline demand might also suggest that some Americans have chosen to get behind the wheel for Christmas travel instead of boarding a plane amid widespread flight cancellations. Demand for middle distillates also surged to above 4 million bpd, up 229,000 bpd from the previous week, according to the EIA report. Distillate stocks fell by 1.7 million bbl from the previous week to 122.4 million bbl and are now about 14% below the five-year average. Analysts expected distillates inventories would rise by 200,000 bbl. Surging imports of goods, demand-driven manufacturing activity and strong retail sales have all contributed to burgeoning diesel demand this year that has consistently surpassed pre-pandemic levels. Total products supplied over the last four-week period averaged 21.4 million bpd, up 12.4% from the same period last year. Over the past four weeks, motor gasoline product supplied averaged 9.3 million bpd, up 17.1% from the same period last year. Distillate fuel product supplied averaged 4.1 million bpd over the past four weeks, up 7.8% from the same period last year. Near the noon hour in New York, February West Texas Intermediate futures slipped $0.25 to $75.73 bbl. NYMEX January RBOB futures was flat at $2.2471 gallon, with the next-month February contract trading near parity. January ULSD contract declined 1.24 cents to $2.3588 gallon and the February contract widened its discount to 0.11 cents. Both RBOB and ULSD January contracts expire Friday afternoon.
Oil Up on Strong Year-End U.S. Crude, Gasoline Draws By Investing.com -- Oil prices rose for a sixth straight day on Wednesday after U.S. inventory data showed strong drawdowns for both crude and fuels last week as Americans resumed year-end travel and festivities after being assured of lower risks from Covid’s Omicron variant. Crude prices have also been trending higher in anticipation of positive action and remarks in the coming week when global producer group OPEC+ holds its first meeting for the new year. West Texas Intermediate, the benchmark for U.S. crude, settled Wednesday’s trade up 58 cents, or 0.8%, at $76.56 per barrel. WTI has risen more than 12% over the past six sessions, after slumping to a three-week low of $66.04 on Dec. 20 on fears about a wave of Omicron infections reported that week. Year-to-date, WTI is up 57%. London-traded Brent, the global benchmark for oil, settled up 29 cents, or 0.4%, at $79.23. Brent is up more than 11% from its Dec. 20 low of $72.87. Year-to-date, Brent is up 53%. U.S. health authorities, led by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, have told Americans over the past week that Omicron appears to be a milder form of the coronavirus compared with the original Covid-19 strain or the Delta variant, especially for those who are vaccinated. Separately, the average number of daily confirmed coronavirus cases in the United States hit a record high of 258,312 over the past seven days, figures compiled by Reuters showed. The report did not determine how many of those infected were unvaccinated. The final weeks of December are typically strong periods for gasoline and diesel consumption in the United States as people take to the road for Christmas, New Year and holiday travels. Trucking activity is also heavy at this time of year due to seasonal gift deliveries. Weekly oil inventory data from the Energy Information Administration on Wednesday reinforced those trends. Crude inventories fell by 3.576 million barrels during the week ended Dec. 24, the EIA reported in its Weekly Petroleum Status Report. Industry analysts tracked by Investing.com had anticipated a drawdown of just around 3.233 million barrels for the week. The latest crude stockpile drop followed back-to-back declines of 4.715 million and 4.584 million barrels in two previous weeks that also exceeded expectations. In an aberration to usual consumption, U.S. gasoline stockpiles swelled two weeks ago by their most in six months as fuel demand briefly slumped amid cutbacks to social activity triggered by Omicron concerns. By last week though, gasoline usage was back to seasonal trends, with inventories falling by 1.459 million barrels, their most since early November. Analysts had forecast a gasoline consumption of 31,000 barrels for last week. Distillates inventories also fell by a substantial 1.726 million barrels last week, the most in three weeks, versus expectations for a drawdown of 59,000 barrels.
Crude Oil Pares Gains After China Cuts Import Allocations -- Oil prices stabilized Thursday, paring earlier gains after China cut its first crude import allocations for the new year, a cut in demand from the largest importer of crude in the world.By 9:05 AM ET (1405 GMT), U.S. crude futures traded 0.1% higher at $76.66 a barrel and the Brent contract rose 0.1% to $79.28.U.S. Gasoline RBOB Futures were largely flat at $2.2677 a gallon.Beijing granted 109 million tons of crude to 42 private refiners in the first set of import allowances for 2022, a drop of 11% from the equivalent period at the start of this year.The market had posted earlier gains after data Wednesday showed U.S. crude oil inventories fell by 3.6 million barrels in the week to Dec. 24, according to data from the Energy Information Administration, roughly in line with what the American Petroleum Institute reported on Tuesday.Gasoline and distillate inventories also fell, indicating demand remains strong despite record Covid-19 cases in the United States, the world’s largest consumer.Crude is on course to post gains of between 50% and 60% in 2021 as demand has climbed back to near pre-pandemic levels while top producers have taken a very cautious stance in returning output to the market.This puts the focus very much on the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies including Russia, a group known as OPEC+, which is due to meet next week to assess production policy heading into 2022.Another factor that could influence the oil price moving into the new year is risk sentiment, particularly regarding Russia’s intentions toward Ukraine.U.S. President Joe Biden and Russian President Vladimir Putin are set to speak later Thursday in an attempt to defuse tensions, with the U.S. accusing Moscow of plotting to invade the Eastern European country, pointing to the massing of tens of thousands of troops near the Ukraine border in the past two months.“Europe and the U.S. are concerned that Russia may exert further military influence over Ukraine, and this has led to talk of potential oil and gas sanctions,” said Ellen Ward, president and founder of Transversal Consulting, an energy and geopolitics firm. “Amidst this situation, it must be noted that Russia is the primary supplier of natural gas for Europe, which it has been curtailing. Less Russian natural gas in Europe leads to greater use of oil as a power generating fuel.”
Crude Extends Win Streak- Oil edged higher as the market weighed a series of supply outages against smaller import quotas in China, the world’s largest crude buyer. West Texas Intermediate closed 0.6% higher on Thursday, rising for a seventh day for its longest run of increases in 10 months. Oil prices have risen over the past month since the initial plunge in late November, when fears of a global economic lockdown due to the omicron variant jolted markets. “That creep up reflects recognition that economic activity remains quite strong despite the obvious worsening of the pandemic,” said Pavel Molchanov, an analyst at Raymond James & Associates Inc. “Consumer behavior and the overall economy is in good shape, and ultimately that’s what matters more for oil demand.” Crude is on course for the biggest annual advance in more than a decade, with the market now largely shrugging off the emergence of the omicron virus variant. The rollout of vaccines accelerated the reopening of economies, propelling crude’s advance. Additionally, surging natural gas prices spurred greater demand for oil-derived products while OPEC+ continues to only drip-feed additional supplies onto the market. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. forecasts further gains in oil prices next year. The market’s lack of reaction to omicron “bodes well for demand to start 2022,” according to Jens Pedersen, a senior analyst at Danske Bank A/S. “It further suggests OPEC+ made the right call to stick to its plans of further normalizing production.” The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies including Russia are set to gather next week to assess the state of the market and to review supply policy into 2022. This year, the group has restored shuttered capacity at a gradual pace, arguing that a cautious approach is merited. Consultant JBC Energy estimates that OPEC members boosted production by 195,000 barrels a day in December, led by gains in Saudi Arabia. Prices: WTI for February delivery rose 43 cents to settle at $76.99 a barrel in New York. Brent for February, which expires Thursday, gained 9 cents to settle at $79.32. Earlier in the session, crude was under pressure as China cut the amount of import quota awarded to private refiners and favored complex processors as it seeks to reform the sector. Beijing granted 109 million tons, 11% less than last year, in the first batch for 2022, according to officials from companies that received notification of the allowances. The price dip blunted a recent rally sparked by a series of supply outages in Ecuador, Libya and Nigeria -- though flows from Nigeria’s Forcados terminal resumed Wednesday. U.S. crude stockpiles also shrank for a fifth consecutive week, according to Energy Information Administration data released Wednesday.
Oil up for 7th Straight Day as New Year’s Eve Closes In - Oil prices rose for a seventh-straight day and as New Year's Eve neared, on optimism about global travel in 2020 despite risks expected from Covid variants.Saudi King Salman’s call on oil producers to stick with OPEC+’s output caps and recommendations to ensure market stability also supported crude prices on Thursday. The 23-nation oil producing alliance, led by Saudi Arabia and Russia, meets on Jan. 4 to confirm a 400,000 barrels-per-day increase in output for February if it deems market conditions appropriate.West Texas Intermediate, the benchmark for U.S. crude, settled Thursday’s trade up 43 cents, or 0.6%, at $76.99 per barrel. WTI has risen more than 13% over the past seven sessions, after slumping to a three-week low of $66.04 on Dec. 20 on fears about a wave of Omicron infections reported that week. Year-to-date, the U.S. benchmark is up 58%.London-traded Brent, the global benchmark for oil, settled up 9 cents, or 0.1%, at $79.32. Brent is up more than 11% from its Dec. 20 low of $72.87. Year-to-date, the global benchmark is up 53%.U.S. health authorities, led by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, have assured Americans over the past week that Omicron was a less risky form of the coronavirus compared with the original Covid-19 strain or the Delta variant, especially for those who are vaccinated.The average number of daily confirmed coronavirus cases in the United States hit a record high of 258,312 over the past seven days, figures compiled by Reuters showed on Wednesday. The report did not determine how many of those infected were unvaccinated. Separately, CDC data shows that more than 61% of the total U.S. population is fully vaccinated, and over 32% of fully vaccinated adults have received a booster.The final weeks of December are typically strong periods for gasoline and diesel consumption in the United States as people take to the road for Christmas, New Year and holiday travels. Trucking activity is also heavy at this time of year due to seasonal gift deliveries.Weekly oil inventory data from the Energy Information Administration on Wednesday reinforced those trends.Crude inventories fell by 3.576 million barrels during the week ended Dec. 24, the EIA reported in its Weekly Petroleum Status Report. Industry analysts tracked by Investing.com had anticipated a drawdown of just around 3.233 million barrels for the week.The latest crude stockpile drop followed back-to-back declines of 4.715 million and 4.584 million barrels in two previous weeks that also exceeded expectations.In an aberration to usual consumption, U.S. gasoline stockpiles swelled two weeks ago by their most in six months as fuel demand briefly slumped amid cutbacks to social activity triggered by Omicron concerns.By last week though, gasoline usage was back to seasonal trends, with inventories falling by 1.459 million barrels, their most since early November. Analysts had forecast a gasoline consumption of 31,000 barrels for last week. Distillates inventories also fell by a substantial 1.726 million barrels last week, the most in three weeks, versus expectations for a drawdown of 59,000 barrels.
Crude Oil Futures Snap 7-day Winning Streak, Settle Sharply Lower - Crude oil futures settled lower on Friday, after a 7-session winning streak, but still posted a strong gain for the week and the month.Oil prices dropped, due largely to profit taking after recent gains.West Texas Intermediate Crude oil futures for February ended down $1.78 or about 2.3% at $75.21 a barrel.Crude oil futures climbed 1.9% in the week. In the October - December quarter, WTI futures gained 0.3%, and added 13.7% in the year.Oil futures climbed as much as 55% in the year, the sharpest annual rise since 2016.Brent crude futures were down $1.68 or 2.1% at $77.85 a barrel a little while ago. Brent crude futures gained about 11% in December, and posted a gain of 51% in the year.Traders continued to closely follow the updates on the virus fron. Coronavirus cases surged to record highs around the world despite the imposition of lockdowns and travel restrictions by several governments.U.S. health experts warned Americans to prepare for severe disruptions in the first weeks of 2002 amid increased holiday travel, New Year celebrations and school reopenings following winter breaks.Traders also looked ahead to the upcoming OPEC+ meeting, scheduled to take place on January 4. The oil producing alliance will decide whether to continue increasing output in February.On Thursday, Saudi King Salman called on all major oil prducers to stock with OPEC+'s output caps and recommendations in order to ensure market stability.
U.S. oil snaps 7-session streak of gains but logs best yearly rise in over a decade - U.S. oil futures on Friday settled lower on the eve of 2022, marking the first decline in the past eight sessions, but the loss belies a stellar year for crude bulls, with the commodity posting the sharpest annual rise since 2009. West Texas Intermediate crude oil for February delivery declined $1.78, or 2.3%, to end at $75.21 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, after gaining 0.6% on Thursday. For the week, oil rose 1.9%, rose 13.7% in December and posteed a 0.3% rise in the quarter. For the year, WTI rallied more than 55% to clinch its sharpest annual gain in 12 years, FactSet data show.
Market Sees Minimal Pandemic Demand Destruction - Oil markets started the week on a high note as traders took on more risk aided by a bullish U.S. inventory report and despite the spread of the Omicron variant. WTI rallied to a five week high at just under $77.45 barrel during its seventh straight session of gains. Brent crested the $80 per barrel mark as the market continues to see minimal demand destruction coming from pandemic-related closures and restrictions. Daily cases of both Covid-19 variants are on the rise but symptoms are fewer and hospital stays are shorter for the vaccinated. However, the virus outbreak did put a dent in holiday air travel as thousands of flights were canceled due to ill staff. Prices are still below the seven year high of $84.65 per barrel set on 10/26/21.This week’s crude inventory report indicated strong demand with the EIA’s weekly petroleum status report reporting that commercial crude inventories fell last week by 3.6 million barrels to 420 million barrels, now seven percent below the average for this time of year, while API report that inventories decreased by 3.7 million barrels. WSJ analysts called for a drop of 3.2 million barrels while the API had called for a decrease of 3.1 million barrels. Refinery utilization rose slightly to 89.7 percent from 89.6 percent. Total motor gasoline inventories decreased 1.45 million barrels and are now six percent below the five average for this time of year. Distillate inventories fell 1.7 million barrels and now stand at 14 percent below the five year average which could lead to heating oil shortages should cold hit the U.S. Northeast for a prolonged period. Crude oil stocks at the key Cushing, OK, hub gained 1.05 million barrels to 34.7 million barrels, or about 46 percent of capacity there, for the seventh straight weekly gain. 1.35 million barrels was withdrawn from the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve, which now stands at 595 million barrels. U.S. oil production rose by 200,000 barrels per day to 11.8 million barrels per day vs. 11 million barrels per day at this time last year. And, the U.S. added seven new drilling rigs last week.Venezuela reported producing one million barrels per day on 12/24/21, the largest one day output since 2019, when U.S. sanctions hurt their exports. However, that level is not expected to be maintained consistently due to unreliable infrastructure. Meanwhile, Mexico’s PEMEX announced that it will stop exporting crude in 2023 as its own refining needs will cover production. The national oil company recently acquired a 50 percent interest in the Deer Park, TX, refinery and is building another in southern Mexico. China, on the other hand, is cutting by nine percent the amount of crude it allows its refineries to import for early 2022.…The S&P 500 hit a record close this week while the Dow reached an intra-day High. All three major U.S. stock indices look to settle higher on the week. The U.S. dollar traded lower, helping support oil prices.Natural gas crashed this week, breaching the $3.60/MMBtu mark despite a bullish storage report and after trading over $4 for five sessions. Mild temperatures have finally reached the UK and Continental Europe providing a break from record-high natural gas prices while in the U.S., unseasonably mild weather has lasted throughout most of December…
U.S. says Iran “dragging its feet” on return to nuclear deal--Talks on reviving the Iran nuclear deal that have resumed in Vienna show some progress but it’s “far too slow,” a U.S. official said Tuesday. “Iran has at best been dragging its feet in the talks while accelerating its nuclear escalation,” State Department spokesman Ned Price said in a press briefing. “We have been very clear that that won’t work.” If Iran continues at that pace, it will be too late to restore the 2015 nuclear accord between Iran and world powers known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, he said. Diplomats reconvened Monday in the Austrian capital for an eighth round of negotiations meant to limit the Persian Gulf country’s nuclear activities in exchange for relief from U.S. sanctions. Deep divisions continue to plague the European Union-brokered talks, forcing diplomats to contemplate outcomes that fall short of fully reviving the landmark 2015 accord, according to officials with knowledge of the discussions. The new round of talks in Vienna could leave the accord neither quite alive nor categorically dead. While there’s no formal discussion of an interim deal, even leaving the accord in a state of limbo would require an implicit understanding among all sides not to escalate further. Iran took a big step in that direction when it said on Dec. 25 that it wouldn’t exceed 60% enrichment of uranium. “The most important issue for us is to reach a point where Iran can sell its oil comfortably and without any restrictions and receive its money in foreign currency in its own bank accounts,” Iran’s Foreign Minister Hossein Amirabdollahian said Monday, according to the semi-official ISNA news agency. “We should be able to fully reap the nuclear deal’s economic benefits.” But European and U.S. diplomats are increasingly skeptical they can offer the kind of sanctions relief Iran demands. The Islamic Republic has continued to dramatically increase its nuclear activities in the wake of the U.S. decision to unilaterally exit the accord almost four years ago. That’s resulted in a dwindling time horizon for diplomacy to prevent Iran from marshaling the resources necessary to build a nuclear weapon.
Iran says its rocket sends three 'research payloads' into space -Iranian state television showed footage on Thursday (December 30) of what it said was the firing of the launch vehicle. The Simorgh satellite carrier rocket, whose name translates as "Phoenix", had launched the three research devices at an altitude of 470 kilometres (290 miles), spokesman Ahmad Hosseini said.He gave no further details on whether the devices had reached orbit but said an operational launch could take place soon.Iran, which has one of the biggest missile programmes in the Middle East, has suffered several failed satellite launches in the past few years due to technical issues and sabotage.
Israel Launches Massive Attack On Syrian Port, Fires Burn 14 Hours --In the second such major attack this month on Syria's key northern city, the port of Latakia was struck overnight by multiple Israeli missiles, erupting in huge fireballs and massive damage, with the blaze appearing to burn into the morning and even afternoon hours of Tuesday.Syrian state SANA described that "At around 3:21am (05:21 GMT), the Israeli enemy carried out an aerial aggression with several missiles from the direction of the Mediterranean... targeting the container yard in Latakia port." SANA also said there was damage to a nearby hospital.By many accounts this marked a much larger strike compared to a similar attack on the port weeks ago. Likely Israeli warplanes flying over the Mediterranean launched the attack, while some reports suggested cruise missiles. "Live footage aired by state television showed flames and smoke in the container terminal," according to further details in Al Jazeera. "Later on Tuesday, the Syrian government’s media office said emergency services brought under control fires that had broken out in the port’s container storage area." the report added.Fires raged through the day Tuesday, with some eyewitnesses saying they burned out of control for at least fourteen hours.There were no immediate reports of casualties, and any possible injuries remains unclear. Israel has not commented on the strikes, which is typical in the aftermath of its semi-regular attacks on Syria.Importantly, attacks on Latakia - which were a rarity during prior years of Israeli operations inside Syria - are very risky given there's a major Russian airbase a mere dozen miles to the south of the port.
China Panic-Hoards Half Of World's Grain Supply Amid Threats Of Collapse --About two and a half years ago, we told readers China was panic hoarding food, which was several months before the virus pandemic began to spread worldwide; Beijing has managed to stockpile more than half of the world's maize and other grains that have resulted in rapid food inflation and triggered famine in some countries. In August 2019, we asked the question: Does China believe that we are on the verge of a major global crisis? The communist Chinese government has always been very big into planning, and it appears that they have decided that now is the time to hoard food, gold and other commodities.Fast forward today, the answer is most likely "yes." China maintains "historically high levels" of beans and grains stockpiled at COFCO Group's (a major Chinese state-owned food processor) 310 storage facilities in the northeastern part of the country, according to Nikkei Asia. Qin Yuyun, head of grain reserves at the National Food and Strategic Reserves Administration, told reporters last month,"our wheat stockpiles can meet the demand for one and a half years. There is no problem whatsoever about the supply of food." Data from the U.S. Department of Agriculture shows China has approximately 69% of the globe's maize reserves in the first half of the crop year 2022, 60% of its rice, and 51% of its wheat. Since the Chinese plan multiple years out, we've pointed out how a series of disasters and weather events have likely led state officials to forecast a troublesome period of food shortages. China has already observed droughts, floods, and pests that have ruined harvests. More than 20 months of snarled supply chains due to COVID and La Nina weather patterns (second consecutive one) have also produced volatile conditions for food production. The one thing Beijing cannot have is discontent among its citizens triggered by food shortages and or soaring prices; that's why central planners spent $98.1 billion importing food in 2020, up 4.6 times from a decade earlier, according to the General Administration of Customs of China. For the first eight months of this year, China imported more food than in 2016.
Chinese residents ‘starving’ as world’s strictest COVID lockdown bans them leaving home --Residents under strict lowdown rules in one of China’s largest cities say they are facing starvation after they were banned from going outside to get food.Officials running the city of Xi’an on Monday told its 13million inhabitants they were only allowed out from their homes when invited to take part in a new round of mass Covid testing, or for medical emergencies.Before the severe measures were introduced, one member from each household was allowed out once every two days to buy food.It comes as a string of hugely positive studies show Omicron is milder than other strains, with the first official UK report revealing the risk of hospitalization is 50 to 70 percent lower than with Delta.COVID booster jabs protect against Omicron and offer the best chance to get through the pandemic, health officials have repeatedly said.The Sun’s Jabs Army campaign is helping get the vital extra vaccines in Brits’ arms to ward off the need for any new restrictions.The UK’s drive to get people jabbed as quickly as possible appears to be having an effect.COVID-19 hospital admissions are down more than 50 percent compared to this time last year, official figures have revealed.A total of 8,474 people were in hospital in the UK with coronavirus on Monday – a huge drop on the massive 19,277 admissions recorded on the same day in 2020.The positive figures back Boris Johnson’s decision to rule out a New Year’s Eve lockdown in England, and are further a proof that Omicron appears to be a less-severe variant.
Chinese scientists develop AI ‘prosecutor’ that can press its own charges
- Machine is so far able to identify eight common crimes such as fraud, gambling, dangerous driving and ‘picking quarrels’, researchers say
- Prosecutors in China already use an AI tool to evaluate evidence and assess how dangerous a suspect is to the public
China 10-Year Yields Plunge To 18 Month Low On Surging Easing Expectations, Liquidity Injections --The PBOC held its Q4 monetary policy committee meeting last Friday, December 24th, with the meeting statement released on the evening of 25th December. The PBOC’s Q4 MPC meeting echoed Beijing’s new stance at the recent Central Economic Working Conference (CEWC) – it emphasized policymakers would step up support to the real economy, a reversal from the austere approach that marked much of the post-covid era.Compared with the Q3 PBOC monetary policy committee meeting statement, the Q4 statement turned more cautious on its growth outlook, indicated an intention to use broad and targeted policy tools to support the real economy in a more pro-active manner (i.e., was more pro growth), and on the margin eased its tone on the property sector. However, these new changes were in line with key messages from the recent CEWC, signaling more policy easing measures underway. It also stated an intention to increase the use of structural monetary policies, especially favoring SMEs, high-tech sectors and green industries. Coming just as China's credit impulse has bottomed...... we are confident that Beijing's new stimulative approach, will mean much more reflationary tailwinds in 2022.Meanwhile, as Goldman notes, the PBOC continued to call for a boost in domestic demand, a lowering of the average financing costs for firms, increasing policy coordination among ministries, and keeping the economy growing in a reasonable range.Below are several key points from the Chinese central bank statement:
S.Korea exports expand 25.8% y/y in 2021, sharpest in 11 years (Reuters) - South Korea's exports expanded at their fastest pace in 11 years in 2021, with the total export value reaching a record high, supported by post-pandemic recoveries in global demand. For the full year, exports rose 25.8% from a year earlier to $644.54 billion, trade ministry data showed on Saturday, the fastest pace since 2010. That also marked the first growth in three years after contractions of 5.5% and 10.4% in 2020 and 2019, respectively. "Now is the time to head towards the $700 billion export-era ... The trade ministry will step up policy efforts so that industries and exports can tow the complete (economic) normalisation this year," Minister Moon Sung-wook said. A breakdown by items showed exports of semiconductors jumped 29% year-on-year to a record $128 billion, while those of petrochemicals also surged 54.8% to a record $55.1 billion. Other items such as cars and steel jumped 24.2% and 37%, respectively. By destination, exports to China, South Korea's biggest trading partner, rose 22.9%, and those to the United States and the European Union jumped 29.4% and 33.9%. Meanwhile, imports for the full year jumped 31.5% to a record $615.1 billion, rebounding from a 7.1% contraction in 2020. Moon also said the ministry is reviewing joining the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) and aims for more trade pacts to expand its export markets. Saturday's data also showed exports in the final month of the year expanded 18.3% year-on-year, extending growth into a 14th straight month, though the rate was slower than 32% in November. A Reuters' poll of 13 economists had expected 22% growth. Total exports stood at $60.74 billion in December, the largest ever monthly figure. A 35.1% jump in semiconductors exports led December growth, while overall exports to China and the United States also soared 20.8% and 22.9%, respectively.
India's antitrust body orders probe into Apple over alleged abuse of app market (Reuters) - India's competition watchdog on Friday ordered an investigation into Apple Inc's AAPL.O business practices in the country, saying it was of the initial view that the iPhone maker had violated certain antitrust laws. The order from the Competition Commission of India (CCI) comes after a non-profit group alleged Link this year that Apple was abusing its dominant position in the apps market by forcing developers to use its proprietary in-app purchase system. The complainant, "Together We Fight Society", argued that Apple's imposition of a 30% in-app fee for distribution of paid digital content and other restrictions hurts competition by raising costs for app developers and customers, while also acting as a barrier to market entry. The CCI said Apple's restrictions prima facie result in denial of market access for potential app developers and distributors. "The Commission at this stage is convinced that a prima facie case is made out against Apple which merits investigation," it said. Apple did not respond to requests for comment. The company denied the allegations in a filing to the CCI last month, seen by Reuters, and asked the regulator to throw out the case, stressing that its market share in India was an "insignificant" 0-5%. CCI however said in the order that Apple's argument on its market share was "completely misdirected" as the allegations were about anti-competitive restrictions on app developers and not end-users. The allegations are similar to a case Apple faces in the European Union Link where regulators last year started an investigation into the U.S. tech giant. The CCI ordered its investigations unit to complete the investigation and submit a report within 60 days of the order. Typically such investigations go on for several months. The watchdog is separately conducting an investigation Link into Google's in-app payment system as part of a broader probe into the company after Indian startups last year voiced concern.
Ferry fire in Bangladesh claims 41 lives - At least 41 people have died and over 200 were injured early on Friday after a packed three-storey ferry, the MV-Abhijan 10, caught fire on the Sugandha River about 250 kilometres south of Dhaka. In addition to those who died from burns, some drowned after jumping into water to escape the fire. Several others are reported missing. Those with bad burns are currently undergoing treatment at local hospitals. The blaze reportedly broke out in the engine room around 3.00 a.m. and rapidly engulfed the ferry, which was carrying over 800 passengers from Dhaka to the town of Barguna. Many of the passengers were travelling to visit family and friends for the weekend. The disaster is being reported as the country’s worst ferry fire. The capsizing of ferries and other related water-transport accidents occur with sickening regularity in Bangladesh. Survivors of Friday’s fire described the horrifying situation. One passenger, an elderly grandmother, told the AFP that most people had been sleeping when the fire broke out. “My nine-year-old grandson, Nayeem, was with me, he jumped into the river. I don’t know what happened to him,” she said. Another woman, who was travelling with her father, sister and six-month-old nephew, said the young child was still missing. “When the fire broke out, I gave the baby to a man. He was trying to save the baby. But now we can’t find them,” she said. The true extent of the disaster is not yet clear but with rescue teams still searching for the missing the death toll is likely to rise. A case has been filed in the Barguna Chief Judicial Magistrate Court against the ferry owner Hamjalal Sheikh and 24 others in connection with the deadly fire. The owner has denied the blaze was caused by a mechanical fault, telling a local news outlet that there was an explosion on the ferry’s second storey with the subsequent fire spreading to the engine room.
France Forces Millions To Work From Home, Xi'an Starves As Omicron Lockdown Bites - The world counted a record number of new COVID cases over the 24 hours to Monday, smashing a record for new cases reported while hospitalizations and deaths have remained surprisingly subdued. Despite that, the omicron-driven winter wave is prompting some governments to impose new restrictions on the economy, most notably France, which will now require local businesses to require all white-collar workers who are able to work from home for most of next month, if not longer. The new measures are intended to combat what French authorities have described as an omicron-induced "megawave". Starting from next week, working from home will become mandatory for those who are able. Additionally, public gatherings will be limited to 2K people for indoor events. This comes as France reports more than 100K cases over the weekend. Elsewhere, in NYC, residents are suffering through the second day of vaccine mandates for private businesses. Footage of police arresting the unvaccinated inside a Burger King in the city is already going viral on social media. Moving on, the outbreak in the northwestern Chinese city of Xi'an has continued to worsen. Already, some among the 13M residents who have been locked down for a week already are running out of food, according to the Daily Mail. These people - some of whom say they are "starving" - aren't allowed to venture outdoors for any reason, including for buying food and other supplies. Previously, one member of each household was allowed out once every two days to buy food. City officials said people in "low risk" areas will be allowed to buy essentials once testing is complete and if their results are negative. Xi'an reported 175 new cases on Tuesday, a paltry figure compared to other large cities around the world, but a substantial number in China, which still favors its "Zero COVID" approach even in the face of a less deadly, more infectious, variant. Nearby cities have also logged cases linked to the flare-up, including Yan'an, which is situated about 185M from Xi'an. Authorities asked people to stay home and businesses not to open in that city Tuesday. People in Xi'an may face up to 10 days in police detention and fines of up to $75 if they are caught leaving their home for any reason other than to get tested or for a medical emergency.
German district calls for elderly homes to block access to hospital for residents with COVID-19 - Have things really reached that point again? This question arises with the latest news from the German district of Tuttlingen in the state of Baden-Württemberg, where the district is pressuring elderly care and nursing homes to evaluate whether transferring their residents to hospital in the event of a COVID-19 infection is really worthwhile. And all parties, including the Left Party, defend this call for preventive triage, which is reminiscent of the darkest period in German history. “You know your residents,” states the undated letter which reached the care facilities in early December. “You can determine their presumed or actual will, and through your actions you can do a great deal to prevent the available treatment resources from being overloaded.” The letter from the Tuttlingen district is signed by Dr. Sebastian Freytag, Managing Director of Tuttlingen District Hospital Ltd., as well as Bernd Mager, head of social affairs. The latter is both the department head of the district for labor and social affairs and a member of the regional executive of the Christian Democrats (CDU) in Tuttlingen. It is worth studying this letter, with the seal of an official German authority, carefully. It begins with the reference to the “current wave of the coronavirus pandemic” and the “very critical” situation at the local hospital. This had “reached the capacity limit both in terms of the utilization of the intensive care unit and in terms of personnel.” The “ladies and gentlemen of the inpatient facilities and outpatient services” and the relatives and residents in the Tuttlingen district should bear in mind that “every bed in which people in need of intensive care are cared for … requires a staff of skilled workers, a resource, which is limited in the short term!” With the scarce resource of intensive care, the following “urgent appeal” is justified at the end: “We ask those responsible for the inpatient facilities and outpatient services to sensitize the residents, clients and their relatives to this, especially by carefully considering hospital admissions during this difficult time. This also applies to the use of emergency medical services.” By being reluctant to approve hospital admissions, the resources of clinical intensive and emergency care could ultimately be left open to those “whose diseases are associated with a good prognosis with a view to extending life with a good quality of life,” the letter reads. In order to record the “presumed or actual will” (as it says in the letter) of the resident, the district attached a document to the letter headlined “Assessment on the occasion of the COVID-19 pandemic.” It is a one-page form with which an existing will can be “supplemented” with a resident’s wishes regarding care. However, as the letter expressly states, the form can “also be filled out and handed in explicitly without a prior will”—a procedure that is obviously in a legal gray area.
Germany wants G7 finance ministers to focus on recovery, climate protection (Reuters) - Germany wants to use its presidency of the Group of Seven (G7) to support the economic recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic and strengthen efforts to improve climate protection, Finance Minister Christian Lindner said on Saturday. "Germany has taken over the G7 presidency for 2022 - the G7 countries stand for freedom, democracy and progress," Lindner said in a tweet. "With this in mind, we must overcome the pandemic and drive the global economic recovery," he added. Lindner, party leader of the liberal Free Democrats (FDP), junior partner in Chancellor Olaf Scholz's three-way ruling coalition, said he wanted to put questions of digitization and climate neutrality on top of the agenda of finance ministers and central bank governors during their G7 meetings.
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