week ending Jan 15

Most Reckless Fed Ever: “Real” Federal Funds Rate Now the Most Negative Ever - Wolf Richter - After a year of brushing off inflation as temporary, while inflation spread deeper and further into the economy, and got worse month after month, the Fed is finally talking about tightening. But so far, it’s just talking about it. It’s still repressing short-term interest rates to near 0% – with the effective federal funds rate, which the Fed targets with its interest rate policy, at 0.08%. And the Fed is still printing money hand-over-fist, though at a slightly slower rate than two months ago. Meanwhile, the broadest measure of inflation, the Consumer Price Index (CPI-U) jumped by 7.04%, the highest and worst since June 1982, according to data released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics today. But we cannot compare today to 1982:

• In June 1982, inflation was coming down; now inflation is spiking.
• In June 1982, the effective federal funds rate (EFFR) was 14.2%. Today it’s 0.08%.
• In June 1982, the Fed did not engage in QE; today it’s still massively buying assets.

So now we have the bizarre situation where the EFFR is 0.08% and CPI-U inflation is 7.04%, and the inflation-adjusted EFFR, or “real” EFFR, is a negative 6.96%, the most negative real EFFR in the data going back to 1954:The “real” interest rate on savings accounts and CDs is similarly negative in the -7.0% range. The real yield of short-term Treasury bills is similarly negative in the -7.0% range. Even the 10-year Treasury yield, now at 1.7%, is -5.3% in real terms.Even most junk bonds are traded with yields below the rate of inflation. The average BB-rated “real” junk bond yield is -3.3%. Taking more risk, the average B-rated “real” yield is -2.0%.You have to go to CCC-rated junk bonds – “substantial risk” of default – to get a yield above the rate of CPI inflation. Here’s my cheat sheet for corporate bond credit ratings, and you can see how far down you have to go and how much risk you have to take to beat inflation.What the Fed is doing is called “financial repression.”The Fed’s year-long refusal to deal with inflation, while talking down and brushing off this worsening inflation, after having triggered it with its monetary policies, including $4.6 trillion in QE – let’s just stick to calling it money-printing – in 22 months, cements this Fed under Chair Powell as the most reckless Fed ever as seen by the “real” EFFR chart above and by the Wealth Disparity chart below. The cost of inflation is borne by the working people whose performance raises get eaten up by higher prices, and whose pay increases to deal with inflation get eaten up by higher prices. But there were huge beneficiaries of these monetary policies: The folks who held the most assets, because these monetary policies had the effect of inflating asset prices across the board, and the wealth of the wealthiest 1% of households spiked, creating the biggest and worst wealth disparity ever to the bottom 50% and even to the bottom 99%, based on the Fed’s own wealth distribution data.

Fed Chair Powell says rate hikes, tighter policy will be needed to control inflation -Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, with a seemingly clear path to a second term heading the central bank, declared Tuesday that the U.S. economy is both healthy enough and in need of tighter monetary policy.As part of his confirmation hearing before the U.S. Senate Committee on Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs, Powell said he expects a series of interest rate hikes this year, along with other reductions in the extraordinary help the Fed has been providing during the pandemic era."As we move through this year … if things develop as expected, we'll be normalizing policy, meaning we're going to end our asset purchases in March, meaning we'll be raising rates over the course of the year," he told committee members. "At some point perhaps later this year we will start to allow the balance sheet to run off, and that's just the road to normalizing policy."He made the remarks during a 2½-hour session that included both praise for the Fed's handling of the economy and criticism over perceived ethical lapses from central bank officials. Some Republican senators also expressed worries over whether the Fed was veering too far from its stated objectives of price stability, full employment and banking oversight.Ultimately, though, Powell appeared headed toward a successful confirmation from the full Senate. Committee Chairman Sherrod Brown, D-Ohio, and Pennsylvania Sen. Patrick Toomey, the ranking Republican, both said they plan on supporting President Joe Biden's nomination. Sen. Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass., has said she will oppose the nomination, after calling Powell "dangerous" during a hearing last year.Many of the questions from both sides of the aisle centered on inflation, which is running at a close to 40-year high. After declaring the surge "transitory" for much of 2021, the Fed has pivoted on inflation and is expected to raise rates three or four times this year in quarter percentage-point increments.Higher interest rates control inflation by slowing down the flow of money, which has been running rapidly through the economy as the Fed and Congress have combined to provide more than $10 trillion worth of stimulus."If we see inflation persisting at high levels longer than expected, then if we have to raise interest more over time, we will," Powell said. "We will use our tools to get inflation back."In addition to rate hikes, the Fed also is tapering its monthly bond purchases, which have added more than $4.5 trillion to its balance sheet since the early days of the pandemic. Officials also have indicated they will start decreasing the balance sheet later this year, mostly likely by allowing a set level of proceeds to run off each month, though the Fed also could sell assets outright.Powell said the moves are in response to an economy that has both a strong jobs picture, with an unemployment rate at 3.9% in December, but with inflation expected to top 7% year over year for the same period."What that's really telling us is that the economy no longer needs or wants the very highly accommodative policies that we've had in place to deal with the pandemic and its aftermath," Powell said. "We're really just going to be moving over the course of this year to a policy that is closer to normal. But it's a long road to normal from where we are."He faced some questioning about why the Fed got its inflation call wrong, and he again cited issues mostly related to the pandemic, which has seen clogged supply chains, sparsely stocked store shelves and rising prices that Powell said could threaten the recovery."If inflation does become persistent, if these high levels of inflation get entrenched in our economy and people's thinking, then inevitably that will lead to much higher monetary policy from this," he said. "That could lead to a recession and that will be bad for workers." Powell also faced questions about a controversy in recent months over the financial activities of several officials around the time the Fed was about to implement a series of rescue measures just before the pandemic declaration. Fed Vice Chairman Richard Clarida announced Monday that he is resigning a few weeks ahead of the end of his term following additional disclosures about his buying and selling of equity funds. Regional Fed presidents Eric Rosengren of Boston and Robert Kaplan of Dallas resigned in 2021 following similar disclosures.

Fed Chair Powell resists lawmaker efforts to pigeonhole his views - — Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell walked a bipartisan tightrope while appearing Tuesday on Capitol Hill, assuring Republican lawmakers the central bank would not overstep its statutory bounds while emphasizing to Democrats the Fed’s responsibility to monitor financial stability and the risks of climate change. Testifying before the Senate Banking Committee after being renominated by the Biden White House to lead the Fed for a second term, Powell spent much of the morning addressing lawmakers’ concerns about inflation. But the Fed chair also touted the central bank’s policy record under his watch. “We increased capital and liquidity requirements for the largest banks — and currently, capital and liquidity levels at our largest, most systemically important banks are at multidecade highs,” Powell said in his opening remarks. “We worked to improve the public's access to instant payments, intensified our focus and supervisory efforts on evolving threats such as climate change and cyberattacks, and expanded our analysis and monitoring of financial stability.”

$2.7 Billion in Credit Default Swaps Blew Up One Day Before the Fed Launched Its Repo Loan Bailouts in 2019 - Pam Martens - On September 16, 2019, exactly one day before the Federal Reserve would embark on its first emergency repo loan operations since the financial crisis of 2008, $2.7 billion in credit default swaps (CDS) on a single name blew up. The dealers in those credit default swaps were the very same trading houses on Wall Street that sought, and received, tens of billions of dollars in repo loans from the Fed in an operation that grew to a cumulative $11.23 trillion before its conclusion on July 2, 2020. (In just the last quarter of 2019, the Fed pumped a cumulative $4.5 trillion in repo loans into Wall Street’s trading houses, according to the transaction data it released on December 30 of last year. That was before even one case of COVID-19 had been reported in the U.S.)On September 16, 2019 the U.K. tour operator, Thomas Cook, filed for Chapter 15 bankruptcy protection in the U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York – Wall Street’s stomping ground. We know that because the Credit Default Swaps Determinations Committee, that would render the ultimate decision on who got paid on the Credit Default Swaps and who didn’t, places that fact in the first paragraph of its final determination decision.Eight days after that bankruptcy filing, on September 24, Reuters reported that the Determinations Committee had ruled that “some investors in Thomas Cook’s credit derivatives worth as much as $2.7 billion are eligible for a payout.” The same article revealed the source of that information was that the “weekly gross notional value for Thomas Cook’s CDS was $2.69 billion, according to the Depositary Trust & Clearing Corp (DTCC).”What the DTCC was aware of in Credit Default Swaps on Thomas Cook is not the final word on the total amount that was at risk and eventually paid out. Wall Street firms continue to be able to write bespoke (custom) bilateral contracts on derivatives with only the two parties to the trade having knowledge of its terms.The idea that the majority of derivatives are now being centrally-cleared is a complete falsehood that is well-documented quarterly when the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency releases its report on derivatives held at individual banks. The OCC’s report for the third quarter of 2019 shows that Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley were centrally-clearing zero percent of their credit derivatives, the bulk of which are credit default swaps. The maximum percentage other firms were centrally clearing in non-investment grade credit derivatives ranged from 2 percent to 38 percent. (See Graph 15 here.)The most recent derivatives report from the OCC for the third quarter of 2021 reports the following on the central clearing of derivatives on page 13:“In the third quarter of 2021 39.0 percent of banks’ derivative holdings were centrally cleared…From a market factor perspective, 50.5 percent of interest rate derivative contracts’ notional amounts outstanding were centrally cleared, while very little of the FX [Foreign Exchange] derivative market was centrally cleared. The bank-held credit derivative market remained largely uncleared, as 35.3 percent of credit derivative transactions were centrally cleared during the third quarter of 2021.”In addition, Wall Street banks have moved some of their derivatives activity to their foreign units, beyond the radar of their U.S. regulators and the reporting scope of the OCC report.

Economist Michael Hudson Says the Fed “Broke the Law” with its Repo Loans to Wall Street Trading Houses By Pam Martens --Even within economic circles, there is a growing nervousness that the Federal Reserve, the central bank of the United States – with the power to electronically create money out of thin air, bail out insolvent Wall Street megabanks, balloon itsbalance sheet to $8.8 trillion without one elected person on its Board while the U.S. taxpayer is on the hook for 98 percent of that, and allow its Dallas Fed Bank President to make directional bets on the market by trading in and out of million dollar S&P 500 futures during a declared national emergency – has carved out a no-law zone around itself.The latest ruckus stems from the Fed’s release on December 30 of the names of the 23 Wall Street trading houses and the billions they borrowed under its cumulative $11.23trillion emergency repo loan facility that the Fed launched on September 17, 2019 – four months before the first case of COVID-19 was reported in the United States by the CDC on January 20, 2020. (The $11.23 trillion figure represents the cumulative amounts borrowed from September 17, 2019 to the conclusion of the program on July 2, 2020. The Fed has thus far released the names of the banks and amounts borrowed for the last 14 days of September 2019 and the final quarter of 2019.)  On January 3, Wall Street On Parade published an article titled: There’s a News Blackout on the Fed’s Naming of the Banks that Got Its Emergency Repo Loans; Some Journalists Appear to Be Under Gag Orders.The day after the article ran, we got a call from the well-known economist Michael Hudson. We explored the Fed’s actions in some detail with Hudson since he planned to discuss the article in an interview he had scheduled with Ed Norton on the topic of “What Is Causing So Much Inflation.” (You can watch the program and read the transcript here.) Hudson is the Distinguished Research Professor of Economics at the University of Missouri, Kansas City, and a prolific author. In the interview with Hudson, Norton reads the following from the January 3 Wall Street On Parade article:“The Federal Reserve released the names of the banks that had received $4.5 trillion” – that is trillion with a T – “in cumulative loans in the last quarter of 2019 under its emergency repo loan operations for a liquidity crisis that has yet to be credibly explained.”Norton notes that among the large borrowers under the Fed’s repo loan facility in 2019 were JPMorgan Chase, Goldman Sachs and Citigroup (it was their trading affiliates) and these were “three of the Wall Street banks that were at the center of the subprime and derivatives crisis in 2008 that brought down the U.S. economy.”Norton then asks Hudson “why was the Fed giving trillions of dollars to these large Wall Street banks. And why was there a liquidity crisis? That’s unexplained. Why did the Fed refuse to release the names of these banks? And was there a financial crisis before COVID that the U.S. government later was able to blame on COVID, but it was actually a financial crisis in the making?” What Hudson says next will take your breath away, both for its insightfulness and its candor. Hudson: “There was actually no liquidity crisis whatsoever. And Pam Martens is very clear about that. She points out the reason that the regular newspapers don’t report it is the loans violated every element of the Dodd-Frank laws that were supposed to prevent the Fed from making loans to particular banks that were not part of a liquidity crisis.“In her article, she makes very clear by pointing out these three banks, Chase Manhattan, Goldman Sachs – which used to be a brokerage firm – and Citibank, that the Federal Reserve laws and the Dodd-Frank Act explicitly prevent the Fed from making loans to particular banks.“It can only make loans if there’s a general liquidity crisis. And we know that there wasn’t at that time, because she lists the banks that borrowed money, and there were very few of them…”

Treasury Yields & Mortgage Rates Spike: Markets Begin to Grapple with Quantitative Tightening - Wolf Richter -The two-year Treasury yield started rising in late September, from about 0.23%, and ended the year at 0.73%. In the five trading days since then, it jumped to 0.87%, the highest since February 28, 2020. Most of the jump occurred on Wednesday and Thursday, triggered by the hawkish Fed minutes on Wednesday.Markets are finally and in baby steps starting to take the Fed seriously. And the most reckless Fed ever – it’s still printing money hand-over-fist and repressing short-term interest rates to near 0%, despite the worst inflation in 40 years – is finally and in baby steps, after some kind of come-to-Jesus moment late last year, starting to take inflation seriously. Treasury yields are now responding:Even though the Fed hasn’t actually done any hawkish thing, and is still printing money and repressing interest rates to near 0%, it is laying the groundwork with innumerable warnings all over the place, from the FOMC post-meeting presser on December 15, when Powell said everything would move faster, to hawkish speeches by Fed governors, to the very hawkish minutes of the FOMC meeting, which put Quantitative Tightening in black-and-white.The Fed is now spelling out that it will make Quantitative Tightening – QT is the opposite of QE – its primary policy tool in battling inflation. It even spelled out in the minutes why QT won’t blow up the repo market, as it had done last time in September 2019, because last July, the Fed established the Standing Repo Facilities (SRFs) to calm the repo market while the balance sheet gets unwound sooner, faster, and by more than last time.It is now clear to everyone that the Fed will hike interest rates sooner and by more than expected just a few months ago, and that it will reduce its balance sheet sooner, faster, and by a lot more.This is a huge thing. And the Fed is communicating this shift to the markets so that markets can adjust to it gradually, more or less orderly, and not all at once. And the Treasury market is doing that.The 10-year Treasury yield has risen by 25 basis points since the end of the year, to 1.78% on Friday. It’s now at the highest point since January 21, 2020, before the pandemic was even a factor for the markets: The jawboning will continue until morale improves.Browbeaten by the worst and very un-temporary inflation in 40 years, even ultimate Fed doves, such as San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly on Friday, are now talking up rate hikes this year, and more importantly the arrival of Quantitative Tightening soon after liftoff.“I would prefer to see us adjust the policy rate gradually and move into balance sheet reduction earlier than we did in the last cycle,” she said, echoing in harmony what the minutes of the December 15 FOMC meeting had revealed in detail on Wednesday.Powell and the minutes called the balance sheet reduction the “runoff.” This Quantitative Tightening, or QT, is the opposite of QE.QE was designed to push down long-term interest rates, and it did a marvelous job at that, and it triggered the biggest asset bubbles the US had ever seen, including the massive real estate bubble, with house prices spiking by 20% over a 12-month period, from already very lofty levels.QT does the opposite: It allows long-term interest rates to drift higher, and markets will adjust to it, just like they adjusted to QE.Markets are responding to the Fed’s jawboning, and long-term rates are already rising even though the Fed has just started to talk about QT, while it’s still doing QE, and while it’s still repressing short-term interest rates. Jawboning is an essential and official tool in the Fed’s toolbox.The surge in the 10-year Treasury yield has already translated into the highest mortgage rates in nearly two years. And those rates are moving higher fast. According to Freddie Mac, the average 30-year fixed rate mortgage rate rose to 3.22%, the highest since May 2020. But that was based on surveys that most mortgage bankers filled out at the beginning of the week. And since then, mortgage rates have spiked. Daily measures of average mortgage rates have jumped every day. The Average 30-Year Fixed-Rate Mortgage Rates index by Mortgage News Daily has jumped to around 3.50% on Thursday and Friday – rates not seen since the end of January 2020 (chart via Mortgage News Daily)

Fed Vice Chair Clarida to resign over pandemic stock trades - Federal Reserve Vice Chair Richard Clarida announced on Monday that he would be resigning from his position early following months of media reports scrutinizing stock trades he made toward the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic. In a letter to President Biden, Clarida said, "It has been a distinct honor and immense privilege to serve as Vice Chair of the Federal Reserve’s Board of Governors since September 17, 2018. With my statutory term as Governor due to expire on January 31, 2022, I am writing to inform you that it is my intention to resign from the Board on January 14, 2022." As The Washington Post noted, it was reported in October that Clarida bought shares in an investment fund that held stocks in February 2020, shortly before the Fed announced that it would provide economic assistance in light of the pandemic. Last week, Clarida corrected his public disclosure of stock trades after a report from the Post found that he had failed to disclose the full extend of his trades in December. The Post reported that Clarida moved money out of a stock fund as markets responded to the worsening pandemic. Three days later, Clarida moved money back into the fund, shortly before the Fed announced new economic assistance. Clarida made no mention of the recent media scrutiny on his trading activity in his resignation letter. Clarida's resignation comes months after two other Fed officials — Robert Kaplan and Eric Rosengren — also resigned following scruity of their trades during the pandemic.

Fed Vice Chair Clarida resigns amid revelations of how he cashed in on the pandemic -Following the emergence of details about lucrative stock trades at the beginning of the pandemic, Vice Chairman of the US Federal Reserve Bank Richard Clarida announced on Monday that he is resigning early from his position. In a letter to President Biden, without acknowledging the real reasons for his departure, Clarida wrote that he intends to resign on January 14, 2022, more than two weeks before his term at the Fed is set to expire. In his letter, Clarida ignores how he used privileged information for personal financial gain in February 2020 just before the Fed publicly announced plans for massive economic stimulus. Instead, the central bank officer takes the opportunity to boast about his role at the Fed during the pandemic which “triggered a catastrophic collapse in economic activity and a surge in unemployment.” Clarida boasts that he and his colleagues, “in a matter of weeks,” took “historic policy measures that, in conjunction with fiscal policy, steered the economy away from depression and that have supported a robust recovery in economic activity and employment since.” If he were capable of honesty, Clarida would admit that he—and many others within the US government—was busy improving his stock portfolio with a series of strategic online trades while millions of Americans were losing their jobs, falling into poverty, hunger and homelessness and getting sick with COVID-19. Meanwhile, the Fed policy that Clarida helped enact did not change this reality facing the majority of the population, but rather, enabled both a historic rise in the Wall Street markets and an increase in the personal wealth of the financial elite. An official press release from the Fed Board of Governors on Monday announcing Clarida’s resignation similarly does not refer to his insider stock purchases at a time when the financial markets were in free fall in anticipation of the impact of the coronavirus on Wall Street. ” The fact is that Clarida is departing after he publicly acknowledged that he had concealed the full extent of his financial transactions in February 2020. Last October, Bloomberg News reported that Clarida’s financial disclosures showed five transactions worth “between $1 million and $5 million out of a bond fund into stock funds” on February 27, one day before Chairman Powell announced the Fed’s plan to intervene in the deepening financial crisis stemming from the pandemic. At the time Clarida filed his disclosures in May 2020, a statement from the Fed itself waved away any concerns about the suspicious timing of these transactions as “a pre-planned rebalancing to his accounts” and that they were “executed prior to his involvement in deliberations on Federal Reserve actions to respond to the emergence of the coronavirus and not during a blackout period. The selected funds were chosen with the prior approval of the Board’s ethics official.” However, these verbose explanations were exposed as bogus when the New York Times reported on January 6 that Clarida had amended his 2020 financial disclosures on December 16 showing that he moved money out of the same stock funds three days earlier on February 24, “at a moment when financial markets were plunging amid fears of the virus.”

Warren: Powell's actions raise suspicions Fed may be hiding full scope of trading scandal - Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) on Monday said Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s failure to disclose requested information on the trading scandal that rocked the central bank suggests that the Fed is hiding the full scope of the situation.Warren penned a letter to Powell on Monday reiterating her request for the Fed to release all available information regarding trades made by central bank officials in addition to the ethics changes the bank announced in response to the trading scandal.The Massachusetts Democrat noted that she previously sent requests for information on Oct. 21 and Dec. 7, both of which were not answered. She is now requesting that details be provided by Jan. 17.She said the officials’ failure to provide information “raises suspicions” that the Fed is not publicly disclosing the full extent of the trading scandal. “I am deeply concerned that your continued refusal to release information about Fed officials’ trading is at odds with your stated commitment to address the scandal ‘forthrightly and transparently’ and that, particularly in light of the new report, it raises suspicions that the Fed may be failing to disclose the full scope of the scandal to the public,” Warren wrote.A Fed spokesperson told The Hill that the central bank has received the letter but does not have any further comment.The third push for information comes after The New York Times reported on Thursday that departing Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Richard Clarida did not disclose the degree of a financial transaction he made in early 2020, as the Central Bank was preparing to help the U.S. amid the COVID-19 pandemic. The top official reportedly sold stocks on Feb. 24, when financial markets were tanking amid coronavirus concerns.He bought back those holdings on Feb. 27, according to the Times, a purchase that previously came under scrutiny because it was one day before Powell announced that the Fed was ready to act amid the pandemic.The Fed has been under scrutiny following reports that top officials made investment decisions as the central bank was apportioning trillions of dollars in emergency relief funds. Former Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan and Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren both announced retirements after information regarding the trading scandal became public.Powell directed Fed officials in September to take a “comprehensive look” at ethics rules for permissible financial holdings and activities by senior staff. Warren has been critical of Powell and the central bank. In October, she said the bank’s chairman “failed as a leader” amid the trading scandal. She said he ignored a “culture of corruption” at the central bank and did not take adequate actions after three employees disclosed high-value financial trades that were made in the beginning days of the pandemic.On Monday, Warren told Powell, “As new details about the trading scandal are uncovered, your continued refusal to release this information severely compounds concerns about the Fed’s lack of transparency and your commitment to fully and honestly addressing the Fed’s broken ethics culture.”

Senator Pat Toomey Warns on Biden's Possible Raskin Pick as Top Fed Regulator – Bloomberg - Pat Toomey, the top Republican on the Senate Banking Committee, said he has “serious concerns” about the possible nomination of former Fed governor Sarah Bloom Raskin as vice chair of supervision at the Federal Reserve.Raskin’s advocacy for financial regulators, including the Federal Reserve, to act to counter climate-change risks has drawn praise from senior Democrats, including Banking Chairman Sherrod Brown of Ohio and Sheldon Whitehouse of Rhode Island. But Toomey took a critical tack on Tuesday.

Biden picks Raskin as Fed’s bank regulator, rounds out board -President Biden picked Sarah Bloom Raskin to be the Federal Reserve’s top banking regulator and Lisa Cook and Philip Jefferson to be governors, people familiar with the decision said Thursday, completing his overhaul of leadership at the U.S. central bank. The selections keep a Biden promise to improve diversity at the Fed while adding potentially dovish voices to a policy debate as officials seek to contain the hottest inflation in nearly four decades without damaging a job market still healing from COVID-19. Jerome Powell — whom Biden chose in November for another four years as chair, with Gov. Lael Brainard being elevated to vice chair — flagged inflation, along with the coronavirus, as the chief threats to the recovery last month as the central bank accelerated its wind-down of pandemic stimulus and signaled it might raise interest rates three times in 2022. Investors expect the first of those hikes in March. M

Biden's Fed nominees would make history. Will they all make the cut? — The Biden administration’s picks to fill out the remainder of the Federal Reserve Board are a high-water mark for racial and gender diversity on the central bank’s governing body, but it remains to be seen how the nominees will be received by the Senate. After months of anticipation, the White House announced on Thursday evening it would nominate Sarah Bloom Raskin, a former senior official at the Treasury Department and a prior Fed governor, to become the next vice chair of supervision — one of the country’s most influential bank regulatory posts. Biden will also nominate Lisa Cook, an economics professor at Michigan State University, and Philip Jefferson, a dean, vice president and economics professor at Davidson College, to serve as Fed governors. Cook and Jefferson are Black.

Fed's Harker says U.S. economy is improving but still freighted with risks (Reuters) - The U.S. economy is improving and better off than it was a year ago, but it is still dealing with risks and challenges as some businesses struggle to hire workers, Philadelphia Federal Reserve President Patrick Harker said Friday."The economy is improving, yes, but still freighted with risks and constraints," Harker said in remarks prepared for a virtual event organized by the Chamber of Commerce for Greater Philadelphia.Many businesses saw sales rise last year and expect that growth to continue, Harker said, citing a survey by the chamber. But some firms are also facing higher costs as they struggle to hire and retain employees, he said in remarks that did not comment on monetary policy. "Going forward, employers are going to have to think creatively about how to attract and retain talent," he said.

Six High Frequency Indicators for the Economy - These indicators are mostly for travel and entertainment. Note: Gasoline consumption returned to pre-pandemic levels. The TSA is providing daily travel numbers. This data is as of January 8th. This data shows the 7-day average of daily total traveler throughput from the TSA for 2019 (Light Blue), 2020 (Black), 2021 (Blue) and 2021 (Red). The dashed line is the percent of 2019 for the seven-day average. The 7-day average is down 27.9% from the same day in 2019 (72.1% of 2019). (Dashed line) Air travel had been off about 20% relative to 2019 for the last five months (with some ups and downs) - but picked up over the Thanksgiving and Christmas holidays (solid leisure travel) - and has declined in early 2022 (weak business travel). The second graph shows the 7-day average of the year-over-year change in diners as tabulated by OpenTable for the US and several selected cities. This data is updated through January 8, 2022. This data is "a sample of restaurants on the OpenTable network across all channels: online reservations, phone reservations, and walk-ins. Dining was mostly moving sideways, but there has been some decline recently, probably due to the winter wave of COVID. The 7-day average for the US is down 24% compared to 2019. This data shows domestic box office for each week and the median for the years 2016 through 2019 (dashed light blue). Black is 2020, Blue is 2021 and Red is 2022. The data is from BoxOfficeMojo through January 6th. Movie ticket sales were at $138 million last week, down about 33% from the median for the week. This graph shows the seasonal pattern for the hotel occupancy rate using the four-week average. The red dot is for 2022, black is 2020, blue is the median, and dashed light blue is for 2021. This data is through January 1st. The occupancy rate was down slightly compared to the same week in 2019. The 4-week average of the occupancy rate will increase seasonally over the next few months. The key question is: How much business travel will return? This graph is from Apple mobility. From Apple: "This data is generated by counting the number of requests made to Apple Maps for directions in select countries/regions, sub-regions, and cities." This data is through January 8th for the United States and several selected cities. The graph is the running 7-day average to remove the impact of weekends. According to the Apple data directions requests, public transit in the 7-day average for the US is at 85% of the January 2020 level. Here is some interesting data on New York subway usage . This graph shows how much MTA traffic has recovered in each borough (Graph starts at first week in January 2020 and 100 = 2019 average). Manhattan is at about 27% of normal (impacted by holidays too). This data is through Friday,January 7th.

Business Cycle Indicators as of Mid-January 2022 - Menzie Chinn - Industrial production comes in below consensus (-0.1% vs. Bloomberg +0.3% m/m). Here are some key indicators followed by the NBER BCDC. Figure 1: Nonfarm payroll employment (dark blue), industrial production (red), personal income excluding transfers in Ch.2012$ (green), manufacturing and trade sales in Ch.2012$ (black), consumption in Ch.2012$ (light blue), and monthly GDP in Ch.2012$ (pink), all log normalized to 2020M02=0. NBER defined recession dates, peak-to-trough, shaded gray. Source: BLS, Federal Reserve, BEA, via FRED, IHS Markit (nee Macroeconomic Advisers) (1/3/2022 release), NBER, and author’s calculations. Manufacturing production also missed (-0.3% vs. +0.5% consensus). Figure 2: Industrial production (red), manufacturing production (blue), manufacturing employment (green), manufacturing aggregate hours for production & nonsupervisory workers (brown), all seasonally adjusted, all in logs 2020M02=0. NBER defined recession dates, peak-to-trough, shaded gray. Source: Federal Reserve Board via FRED, BLS, NBER, and author’s calculations. The volatile utilities component of IP fell 1.5% m/m, partly offsetting the 2% increase in mining. Regarding manufacturing, the business equipment category decreased by 0.5%, which is sensitive to capital investment expenditures, possibly signaling a deceleration (possible, because, we don’t know if it’s supply or demand induced). Automotive parts production was down 1.3% m/m. Finally, nominal retail sales (ex. food services) undershot as well, -2.3% vs. +0.2% consensus. In real terms: Figure 3: Manufacturing and Trade Industry Sales, 2012Ch.$ (black), retail sales ex food services deflated by CPI (red), retail sales ex food services deflated by PPI for finished goods (teal), all in logs 2020M02=0. NBER defined recession dates, peak-to-trough, shaded gray. Source: Federal Reserve Board via FRED, Census, BLS, NBER, and author’s calculations. Jason Furman observes that the decline of real sales toward trend might be seen as a signal of normalization, as spending on goods reverts to pre-pandemic rates. In terms of business cycle indicators, to the extent that manufacturing and trade industry sales are correlated with retail sales, this hints at a downward movement in the black line in Figure 1. (Since July 2020, each 1 ppt change in PPI deflated retail sales is associated with 0.5 ppt change in real manufacturing and trade industry sales, with adj.R-squared of 0.75). These are backwards looking indicators. High frequency indicators based on weekly data (Baumeister et al.index, see this post, as well as this post) show continued growth through December. A similar pattern is shown in the Lewis-Mertens-Stock indicator. On the other hand, indicators for the high-contact services sector suggest a downturn there.

‘The economy cannot stay open’: Omicron’s effects ricochet across US - Schools going virtual, airlines canceling flights, pharmacies and testing centers closing temporarily, shelves emptying in grocery stores because of transportation delays, blood donations dropping to crisis levels for the first time ever and the country’s hospitals are becoming stretched. This is the US in the grip of the Omicron variant.Omicron may cause milder symptoms in some people, but its effects are ricocheting throughout America and creating some of the greatest challenges of the Covid-19 pandemic.“We have supply shortages, we have transportation shortages, that are a result of people being out because of Covid, and especially Omicron being so infectious. And that is obviously limiting the workforce, and limiting the workforce is creating some of the havoc that we’re all experiencing,” said Ezekiel Emanuel, vice-provost at the University of Pennsylvania. Joe Biden has vowed to keep businesses and schools open, but some experts wonder if that’s possible given the nature of Omicron and the lack of adequate measures to combat it. “The economy cannot stay open and schools cannot stay open when so many people are getting sick,” said Margaret Thornton, an educational researcher at Princeton School of Public and International Affairs. “We must take action to slow the spread in order to keep schools running, to keep businesses running,” she said – but much of that action has been slow to happen. In order to control Omicron and future surges, officials need to rely on tried-and-true tactics, from testing to high-quality masks and better ventilation, say some health experts.“We now have tools such as N95 masks, vaccines, treatments and rapid diagnostics to help prevent infection and reduce severity of illness,” . “However, we need to do more to make them affordable and available to everyone, with clear guidance on when and how to use them most effectively.”Facing an astronomical rise in cases and hospitalizations, health systems have been slammed. Omicron comes on the heels of a devastating Delta wave in the fall and existing staff and supply shortages, with little opportunity to recover. The seven-day average of infections in the US is now running at more than 750,000 cases, far higher than during Delta’s peak.Health workers have spoken out on social media about being asked to volunteer to restock supplies and answer phones, or to volunteer in housekeeping, food service and transportation. One resident physician was reportedly asked to work as a scrub tech – a job they never trained for, and were not paid for. Meanwhile, nurses in New York are stretched so thin, there are parts of facilities where no one is scheduled to monitor patients.Hospitals in some parts of the country are allowing staff to continue workingwith positive cases without isolating at all. In Rhode Island, that policy led to an outbreak among patients. “​​We can have an empty bed, but if there’s not a nurse to manage it or even a doctor to manage it, there’s no way to manage the patient. So we’re really in a crunch,” Moreno said. “We’re bursting right now at the seams” – and since hospitalizations lag by a week or two behind cases, the worst is still to come, he said.

'Build Back Better' stalled as House returns -Democrats’ $1.7 trillion climate and social spending bill is on ice as the Senate pivots to focus on voting rights and as talks between Sen. Joe Manchin and the White House appear to have stalled out.The House returns this week for its first action of 2022, and Democrats, for the most part, are still holding out hope that they can work through Manchin’s objections and pass some form of the "Build Back Better Act.""I have spoken to the senator over time," House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) said of Manchin (D-W.Va.) on CBS’s "Face the Nation" yesterday. "I do think there’s an agreement to be reached."But for now, the reconciliation package looks to be on the back burner, leaving President Biden’s greenhouse gas emissions targets hanging in the balance.The administration has pledged to slash emissions 50 to 52 percent under 2005 levels by 2030. Most experts say that would be a herculean task without the massive clean energy and electric vehicle tax incentives contained in the "Build Back Better Act." That’s not to mention a suite of reforms to oil and gas leasing on public lands and money for environmental justice priorities.Manchin said publicly last week that he has not been negotiating with the White House since he came out against the package late last month (Greenwire, Jan. 4).Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.), meanwhile, is pushing for a vote on a Senate rule change by Jan. 17 — Martin Luther King Jr. Day — if the GOP continues to block voting rights legislation.On Saturday, The Washington Post tossed more bad news Democrats’ way, reporting that Manchin had effectively withdrawn the $1.8 trillion counteroffer he floated to Biden before talks broke down in December.The West Virginia Democrat had suggested a proposal that would keep much of the bill’s $550 billion in climate spending but nix the expanded child tax credit and other social programs, leading to a public spat between Manchin and the White House. It adds up to a bleak picture for "Build Back Better," particularly with a looming Feb. 18 deadline for annual federal spending that could suck up additional congressional time in the coming weeks (E&E Daily, Jan. 3).Still, Democrats have little appetite for splitting up the package in to multiple bills that could be more palatable for Manchin and other centrists, even though Manchin himself said last week that the climate portion "is one that we probably can come to agreement much easier than anything else."Despite the gloom surrounding the bill, Democrats continue to plead for its passage. On Saturday, House Majority Whip Jim Clyburn (D-S.C.), in an appearance on CNN, called "Build Back Better" "the third leg on this three-legged stool that is needed in order to bring balance back into people’s lives." He cited last year’s stimulus package and bipartisan infrastructure bill as the first two legs.Schumer is also still pushing to take up the reconciliation bill once the Senate finishes up with voting rights, but it seems unlikely that either of them will be passed ahead of Biden’s State of the Union address March 1 (E&E News PM, Jan. 7). Republicans, meanwhile, continue to lavish praise on Manchin for stymieing Democrats’ agenda.

Manchin Appears to Back Away From Even His Own Build Back Better Offer | Barron's -Sen. Joe Manchin (D., W.Va.), whose support for President Joe Biden’s Build Back Better legislation is crucial to its passage in the Senate, is no longer interested in supporting even his own $1.8 trillion counteroffer to the White House, the Washington Post reported. Manchin said last week that he and Biden had not spoken about the Build Back Better legislative package, but Manchin has also said privately that he isn’t interested in approving it and that Democrats should rethink their approach, the Post reported, citing unnamed...

Joe Manchin negotiated Build Back Better with Joe Manchin -Sen. Joe Manchin, D-W.Va., certainly drives a hard bargain. After months of negotiations on the Build Back Better Act, he’s rejected every iteration his fellow Democrats have put forward. Now Manchin is reportedly rejecting the plan he himself presented to President Joe Biden last month.Last month, Manchin pitched a $1.8 trillion framework to Biden that “included universal prekindergarten for 10 years, an expansion of Obamacare and hundreds of billions of dollars to combat climate change,” according to The Washington Post. But that counteroffer was a nonstarter for the president’s team in part because it would have nixed an extension of the expanded child tax credit and several other progressive priorities.Manchin then shocked the White House and his fellow senators when he said on Fox News that he wouldn’t be supporting the bill. The sharp rebuff from the White House apparently got to Manchin becauseThe Washington Post reported over the weekend that “the West Virginia Democrat has made clear that he does not currently support advancing even that offer following a breakdown in negotiations between Manchin and the White House right before Christmas.”That’s about par for the course for Manchin, who for all his pledges of straight talk has sent a bevy of mixed messages over the last year. While Democratic leadership has been trying to get Manchin to a “yes” on the cornerstone of Biden’s economic agenda, Manchin has spent most of that time publicly negotiating with himself.

Senate Democrats’ Reckless Gamble on Build Back Better - There is only one climate-change story that really matters in the United States right now. It is that, nearly a year after President Joe Biden took office, the Democratic Party has still not passed the great substance of its climate policy through Congress. Every day that goes by, the party takes another step toward political catastrophe and planetary misgovernance. Time is running out. By the end of the summer, the midterm campaigning season will begin in earnest and the window to pass major legislation will have closed.It is really that simple. Given the United States’ importance in the global economy—it is the second-largest emitter of carbon pollution annually, and one of the planet’s biggest producers of oil and natural gas—its ability, or lack thereof, to pass climate policy will set the standard for the rest of the world.The Biden administration’s climate plan, which is part of the Build Back Better Act, has stalled in Congress. Much of the blame has focused on Senator Joe Manchin of West Virginia, the party’s linchpin vote in the Senate. Manchin, whose family owns a coal-trading company, has received more campaign donations from the fossil-fuel industry than any other member of Congress. Last month, he halted negotiations, announcing that he could no longer vote for Build Back Better, but many Democrats suspect that they will restart in some form.The overwhelming focus on Manchin makes sense, because, as the bill’s loudest skeptic, he will influence its final shape immensely. But he does not command total sway over the bill, and he alone will not dictate its political fate: The rest of the Senate Democratic caucus will play a decisive role too. Forty-nine senators, none of them named Manchin, must vote for Build Back Better in order for it to pass. Lately, I have become more worried about their role than his.

Democrats need to get real on Build Back Better - After months and months and months, during which their Build Back Better agenda has become an exercise in Bumble About Forever, Democrats need to try a different tack.That starts with facing facts: Their efforts to enact a champagne agenda on a Miller Lite mandate are not working. And given that they need every single Senate Democrat, plus the vote of Vice President Kamala Harris, to squeak something through under simple-majority-vote reconciliation rules, there’s little reason to think that will change.Persisting in that effort will only solidify the impression that the party’s ideologically sprawling assemblage of lawmakers can’t muster the self-discipline to mold themselves into a governing coalition. Indignant lefties can mutter and growl and gnash their teeth from here to eternity at Senator Joe Manchin, the centrist Democratic holdout from West Virginia, but as satisfying as that may prove to progressives, it won’t bring the party any closer to getting any part of their social agenda passed.After Manchin’s recent Dem-in-the-Fox House announcement that he was a no on BBB, the mood among pragmatic Capitol Hill Democrats has changed from an optimistic New Deal-reduxism to a resigned realization that, at least for this year, Democrats have little choice except to take what Manchin will give.In fact, that’s pretty much what progressive stalwart Ed Markey, Democrat of Massachusetts, told Manchin on a recent Senate Zoom call. As Markey recounted to me, he told Manchin: “You and President Biden, and Chuck Schumer and Nancy Pelosi, should get in a room and whatever you can agree with, all of the others should give our proxies to support that agreement.”Markey feels that way because, after a year in which the long-predicted ravages of climate change have arrived with a vengeance, Democrats have a potentially transformative $555 billion (over 10 years) package of grants, tax incentives, and rebates to push toward a greener future. Further, Manchin seems OK with almost all of it.“The climate and clean energy provisions in the package have been largely worked through and financed,” said Markey, adding that Manchin recently said he thought the climate package “is one that we probably can come to agreement [on] much easier than anything else.”

Biden ‘will still be looking’ to make parts of Build Back Better happen, says top White House economist --Top White House economist Cecilia Rouse on Wednesday used the past tense to refer to President Joe Biden’s big social-spending and climate plan, but said parts of it still could become reality.“Build Back Better was a package. It was a way to put a bow around a lot of important investments,” said Rouse, who chairs Biden’s Council of Economic Advisers.“The president will still be looking for ways to make them happen — maybe not in that particular bow, but these are important investments that we need to make if we’re going to continue growth.”Her remarks, which came during a Council on Foreign Relations virtual event, fit with what some analysts have predicted — that parts of Biden’s roughly $2 trillion plan still have a chance of getting enacted, even after a key moderate Democratic senator, West Virginia’s Joe Manchin, said last month that he can’t support Build Back Better.“It will take weeks to craft a viable package that satisfies Sen. Manchin without losing progressives, but we continue to believe a $1T+ package is probable,” said Isaac Boltansky, BTIG’s director of policy research, in a recent note.Manchin had proposed a $1.8 trillion counteroffer to Build Back Better last month, but it’s no longer on the table after a breakdown in talks, according to a Washington Post report on Saturday citing unnamed sources.As Rouse spoke on Wednesday, she said she liked to “start with the babies and little kids” when it comes to spending on “human capital.”“There are numerous studies which suggest that dollars invested in our youngest children — in terms of high-quality care settings — pay for themselves multiple times — five, six, seven times over,” she said.

Democrats Say It’s Time To ‘Cut A Deal’ And Salvage Build Back Better — With much of their agenda stalled, Democrats vowed to pick up the pieces of their broken Build Back Better bill and figure out what they can pass, even if that means drastically cutting the size and scope of the legislation’s ambitious social spending and climate programs. “What we need to do now is to cut a deal — a principled deal — that spends whatever money we do spend, [and] spends it wisely,” Sen. Tom Carper (D-Del.) said Tuesday, citing broader agreement within the caucus on provisions intended to fight climate change. “I think that all the historical signs seem to be pointing to some narrower set of segments,” added Sen. Richard Blumenthal (D-Conn.). “Obviously, the old saying, ‘Don’t let the perfect be the enemy of the good,’ has been vastly overstated, but it’s still true.” Hammering out a narrower bill may be easier said than done, however. Each piece has vocal constituencies backing it, and most Democrats are reluctant to cite specific examples of things they would cut. Even if Democrats in the Senate ultimately get on the same page, they would need to win support from frustrated progressives in the House, who watched the bill get smaller and smaller. Negotiations stalled last month after Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) announced his opposition to the bill, which would spend $1.8 trillion over the next 10 years, with the cost mostly offset by tax increases on corporations and the wealthy. Manchin cited concerns with inflation and debt as reasons to pump the brakes on another round of federal spending. There’s been no movement since then. The White House has shifted its focus to passing voting rights legislation — an issue that seems even more difficult to advance in the 50-50 Senate. Absent some kind of agreement, Democrats are facing brutal losses on two big agenda items. House Democrats, back this week from their holiday break, vowed to pass the bill in some form — though lawmakers did not have any clear idea of what changes they needed to make. “We’re gonna build back something,” Rep. Dan Kildee (D-Mich.) told HuffPost. “We know what Sen. Manchin is against, we just need to know what he’s for.”

 West Coast Airport Flights Halted on North Korea’s Missile – Bloomberg --Flights out of some airports on the U.S. West Coast were briefly halted by aviation regulators as a precaution on Monday after North Korea launched a high-speed missile in a test. The so-called ground stop, which paused departures from an unspecified number of airports, lasted less than 15 minutes.

 The C.D.C. advises against travel to Canada. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention on Monday advised Americans to avoid travel to Canada, citing “very high” levels of the coronavirus.Canada was placed under a Level 4 travel health notice — the highest category — joining several countries, including France, Germany, Britain, Spain, South Africa and others. The Caribbean island of Curaçao was also placed under Level 4 travel notice on Monday.“Because of the current situation in Canada, even fully vaccinated travelers may be at risk for getting and spreading Covid-19 variants,” the C.D.C. said.Through Sunday, Canada had reported a daily average of 42,062 new infections, an increase of 169 percent over the past two weeks, according to a New York Times database.Travel between the two countries has only resumed recently. The U.S. land border reopened to Canadian travelers on Nov. 8. Americans have been allowed to travel to Canada since Aug. 9 as long as they had been fully vaccinated at least two weeks before traveling.For those who must travel to Canada, the C.D.C. recommends being fully vaccinated. Those who are fully vaccinated are eligible to enter Canada, but must also be tested beforehand.The Canadian government recently announced that starting on Saturday, certain groups of people, who were previously exempt from entry requirements, will be allowed to travel to the country only if they are fully vaccinated.They include professional athletes, certain temporary foreign workers and essential service providers, including truck drivers.The move has raised concerns from certain groups, including the National Propane Gas Association and the Canadian Propane Gas Association, which said in a statement that the mandate may cause “significant logistics disruptions or delays.” In December, the Canadian government issued its own travel health notice, advising Canadians to avoid nonessential travel out of the country, regardless of their vaccination status.

AOC tests positive for COVID-19 after partying in Miami maskless - Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, D-N.Y., has tested positive for the coronavirus, according to a statement from her office on Sunday night.According to a statement, the congresswoman is recovering from the virus at home and is experiencing symptoms. Ocasio-Cortez received her booster shot in the fall, according to the statement. The positive coronavirus test comes shortly after the congresswoman was seen without a mask in a Miami bar, according to video that circulated on social media.On Dec. 30, the National Review also reported that Ocasio-Cortez was spotted maskless in Miami while at a restaurant outdoors with her boyfriend.Ocasio-Cortez's trip to Florida came during a time when her home state of New York saw a record surge in coronavirus cases due to the omicron variant's spread.Ocasio-Cortez was spotted in Florida with her boyfriend amid a coronavirus spike in New York City, in a photo published by National Review. (National Review/Anonymous)The congresswoman responded by criticizing Republicans for "projecting their sexual frustrations onto my boyfriend’s feet." "It’s starting to get old ignoring the very obvious, strange, and deranged sexual frustrations that underpin the Republican fixation on me, women,& LGBT+ people in general. These people clearly need therapy, won’t do it, and use politics as their outlet instead. It’s really weird," Ocasio-Cortez said. In the announcement on Sunday night, Ocasio-Cortez's office encouraged Americans to get their booster shot and follow Centers for Disease Control and Prevention guidelines.

COVID shows AOC her views on the virus are wrong - So Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez has COVID. This is not nature’s judgment, it’s not a sign of irresponsibility, it’s not a sign that she’s been watching Fox News or listening to Joe Rogan (although she probably should — she could learn something). It’s not a sign of anything except that everybody is getting this mothraforking virus, vaccinated or not. Oh, but also it’s maybe a wee small indicator that AOC’s views of how the virus works have been given the REJECTED stamp by the Celestial Commissar of Irony. But it’s as clear as the mask on your face that the virus is not going to be confined. Whether you live in a red state or the bluest district of the bluest state and merely spend your Christmas vacation in a red state because that’s the only way to have fun anymore, the virus will probably get you, just as everybody catches colds. Defeating the virus by shunning the unvaxxed is not an option. Note that the copiously vaxxed are superspreading the thing at BuzzFeed parties. Yes, everyone should get vaccinated, but everyone should also recognize that there are going to be millions of holdouts and that their existence is nothing to worry about. Even in sophisticated, please-let-government-run-everything Europe, vaccine uptake has stalled out: at 75% fully vaccinated in France, 71% in the UK and 68% in Switzerland. It’s at 62% in the US. The US is and always has been more individualistic and liberty-loving than other countries, so we’re never going to get near 100%, and we’re also younger than other countries, meaning fewer of our people actually need the vaccine against a disease whose impact varies hugely by age. We initially thought that the vaccines would stop infections and hence transmissibility, but that’s as dead as Joe Biden’s dream of being hailed as the new FDR. Shunning people who get the virus, and separating out the unvaccinated, and wearing cloth masks as religiously as people put a “Coexist” bumper sticker on their Subarus have all been pointless. A humbled AOC is about as imaginable as Billy Porter guest-hosting for Sean Hannity, but even she must be thinking, “Maybe we should chill out about the recriminations since people do need each other’s company.” After, as The Post put it, AOC was “Caught Maskless Again in Miami Drag Bar,” where she hugged various people in a crowded space, maybe the rest of us can ignore Dr. Doom on TV telling us we shouldn’t socialize even on holidays? And the extreme transmissibility of the virus makes me wish everyone had followed columnist Andrew Sullivan’s advice last summer to “let it rip.” We’re now wrapping up the second year of “two weeks to slow the spread.” If everyone is going to get the thing, we might as well get it all over with. Don’t you wish that had already happened?

Two more House lawmakers test positive for COVID-19 --Reps. Ben Cline (R-Va.) and John Katko (R-N.Y.) announced separately on Monday that they had tested positive for COVID-19. "I took a COVID-19 test on Saturday and the result was positive," Cline said in a statement. "I have been vaccinated, and after consulting with my physician, I am taking all necessary precautions to isolate here at home in Virginia," he added in addition to thanking everyone for their support. Katko announced his breakthrough COVID-19 diagnosis in a tweet. "I tested positive for COVID-19 yesterday. I am fully vaccinated and boosted, and am thankfully experiencing only mild symptoms," he said. "I will be voting by proxy in Washington this week and working from home as I recover. My constituent service team remains available and ready to serve," Katko added.

Congressional Democrats press Biden to expand rapid COVID-19 testing -Nearly 50 House and Senate Democrats are calling on the Biden administration to substantially increase the nation's supply of rapid COVID-19 tests. In a letter led by Rep. Adam Schiff (D-Calif.), along with Rep. Ro Khanna (D-Calif.) and Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.), the lawmakers acknowledged efforts already underway, like acquiring 500 million additional tests and setting up federal testing sites, but said the administration needs to do more to boost supplies. "But as the Omicron variant spreads and we enter an ominous and unprecedented next phase of this pandemic, it is critical that we ensure these efforts meet the severity of the moment," the lawmakers wrote. The availability of low-cost rapid tests has been a major point of criticism for President Biden. As the omicron variant rapidly spreads across the country and infections spike, tests have become a difficult commodity for many Americans to find online or in retail stores. When they are available, the costs for multiple test kits can be too much for some families. The lawmakers had a list of specific policy asks, including manufacturing enough tests that every American could take at least one rapid test per week, and ensuring that Americans without internet access can order free COVID-19 rapid tests delivered to their homes. They also said the administration should work to make free rapid tests widely available in places like pharmacies, grocery stores and post offices "Ensuring widespread access to free COVID-19 rapid testing is among the most effective public health tools that the federal government has at its disposal, but the current supply shortage is preventing effective utilization of this commonsense mitigation strategy," the lawmakers wrote. A White House official said the administration is in "full agreement" with the lawmakers that "rapid tests are a critical tool in mitigating the impact and spread of COVID-19, which is why we’ve taken action on all of the mentioned areas."

Explaining Away One Million Expired COVID Tests - It was this year; a question arose on the distribution of Covid tests to the states and why shouldn’t some states receive more tests than others. The question referenced Florida as one of those states. The question was put to Jen Psaki, White House Press Secretary. Her answer was (my memory), the tests are distributed by allocation to states. Which makes sense as a million of the tests do not appear overnight and manufacturing sites must be approved for manufacturing of medical supplies, GMP, FDA, USDA regulations all apply (drawing from my experience). There is a constant stream of Covid tests being delivered. “Amid the delay in the roll-out of Biden’s plan, DeSantis —- who is widely speculated as a potential 2024 Republican presidential candidate —- appears to be pushing for a race with the federal government to get tests shipped out first.” Competition with Joe Biden pushes Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis to do his job | Blogs (orlandoweekly.com). If only Florida had enough tests, Florida could be testing more people. DeSantis could be testing more of those people who are more vulnerable. “The governor’s comments came a day after state Surgeon General Joseph Ladapo announced the Florida Department of Health intends to publish new testing guidelines aimed at emphasizing “high-value testing,” which he said would target seniors and medically vulnerable individuals.” As an explanation of why this direction:Ladapo: “The guidance that we’re going to be putting out will be talking about … testing based on risk factors, based on risk level. Because that’s the primary item that determines whether or not a test is actually likely to make a difference.” As others have noted, fewer tests can equate to fewer cases of Covid. I am sure DeSantis will also be commenting on a lack of Covid tests to accomplish his plans. Set aside, this should have been accomplished well before Biden took office. Republicans have been telling people they do not need testing and should not be told to be vaccinated. What do we have , 60 or so percent of the people vaccinated? “DeSantis: A lot of those tests (testing everyone who believes they may have caught Covid) are not a good use of testing. Testing really needs to be focused on the people that have clinical symptoms. So you have people that are symptomatic, and they may not have as good of access because you have so many other tests being used in ways which really aren’t a good use of resources,” Is throwing Covid tests away because they expired a good use of them? During a press conference with DeSantis Thursday in West Palm Beach, Kevin Guthrie, the director of the state Division of Emergency Management, confirmed that Florida had between 800,000 and 1 million COVID-19 tests that expired between Dec. 26-30.

Biden coronavirus vaccine-or-test mandate goes into effect - Key components of the Biden administration’s COVID-19 vaccine or test mandate for more than 80 million workers went into effect Monday amid an ongoing Supreme Court battle that could ultimately doom the rule. The months-long legal battle over the requirement, which was previously blocked by a federal court before being reinstated, has created confusion among employers about how to move forward. While Supreme Court justices expressed skepticism about the rule on Friday, they did not block its implementation by Monday’s deadline. As of Monday, businesses with 100 or more employees were required to have a database of their workers’ vaccination status, post their company vaccine policy, provide paid leave to workers getting the vaccine and require unvaccinated employees to wear a mask at work. The Occupational Safety and Health Administration (OSHA), the agency tasked with enforcing the rule, has said it won’t issue penalties for noncompliance until Feb. 9. That’s the deadline for businesses to implement the weekly COVID-19 testing alternative for unvaccinated workers. “OSHA has been very careful to say that as long as employers are in good faith moving towards compliance, that they’re not going to issue any citations until Feb. 9,” said Domenique Camacho Moran, an employment attorney at New York-based law firm Farrell Fritz P.C. “But if there’s an egregious violation, I don’t think employers can rely on the promise that there will not be a citation,” she added. “Employers need to take steps to immediately comply.” Simply collecting vaccination information has proven difficult for some businesses, particularly when it comes to getting unvaccinated workers to reveal their status. Business groups point out that federal agencies were unable to determine the vaccination status of hundreds of their own workers when they revealed agency-wide vaccination rates last month. “Even the requirement of just figuring out who is vaccinated and who isn’t is a significant burden, and the confusion around court rulings and whether the rule is in effect hasn’t helped,” said Ed Egee, vice president of government relations and workforce development at the National Retail Federation, which asked the Supreme Court to halt the OSHA mandate. The risks are high for employers that ignore the rule. Noncompliant employers could face fines of up to $14,000 per violation and potentially open themselves up to litigation from workers who contract COVID-19 in the workplace. Large businesses, particularly those in the manufacturing, retail and service industries, are most concerned about losing unvaccinated workers amid a tight labor market where 10 million jobs remain unfilled. Last week, the Postal Service asked OSHA for a 120-day extension to comply with the rule, stating that it would be “nearly impossible” to meet the deadlines in time and warning that the mandate would cause many employees to leave the already understaffed mail service. “Given the significant challenges that our nation’s supply chains are already experiencing, we respectfully suggest that the nation cannot afford the additional potential substantial harm that would be engendered if the ability of the Postal Service to deliver mail and packages is significantly negatively impacted,” Deputy Postmaster General Douglas Tulino wrote in a letter to OSHA officials. An October poll from the Kaiser Family Foundation found that 37 percent of unvaccinated adults would leave their job if they were forced to get vaccinated or submit to weekly testing, but only 5 percent of unvaccinated workers have actually left over vaccine mandates. Roughly 15 percent of U.S. adults remain unvaccinated. While businesses initially cheered the OSHA mandate’s weekly testing alternative as a way to retain unvaccinated workers, they’re now confronting the challenge of finding millions of COVID-19 tests as the nation grapples with a severe testing shortage.

CDC Releases Unusual Amount Of Covid-19 Vaccine Last Week -- January 12, 2022 - Generally, the US distributes five million doses of covid-19 vaccine to US facilities. There have been some exceptions, with as many as nine million doses and fourteen million doses. But look at last week: 25 million doses released by the US government, five times the usual weekly amount. The vaccine is not free. Someone paid for that vaccine. With about 1.5 million doses administered each day, or about ten million per week, a release of 25 million certainly catches one's attention.

Justices Hear Case on Vaccine Mandate for Health Care Workers C-SPAN - The Supreme Court heard oral argument in the consolidated cases Biden v. Missouri and Becerra v. Louisiana, concerning the Biden administration’s COVID-19 vaccine mandate for health care workers at facilities receiving Medicare and Medicaid funding.

Omicron Makes Biden’s Vaccine Mandates Obsolete – WSJ --Federal courts considering the Biden administration’s vaccination mandates—including the Supreme Court at Friday’s oral argument—have focused on administrative-law issues. The decrees raise constitutional issues as well. But there’s a simpler reason the justices should stay these mandates: the rise of the Omicron variant. It would be irrational, legally indefensible and contrary to the public interest for government to mandate vaccines absent any evidence that the vaccines are effective in stopping the spread of the pathogen they target. Yet that’s exactly what’s happening here.Both mandates—from the Health and Human Services Department for healthcare workers and the Occupational Safety and Health Administration for large employers in many other industries—were issued Nov. 5. At that time, the Delta variant represented almost all U.S. Covid-19 cases, and both agencies appropriately considered Delta at length and in detail, finding that the vaccines remained effective against it.Those findings are now obsolete. As of Jan. 1, Omicron represented more than 95% of U.S. Covid cases, according to estimates from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Because some of Omicron’s 50 mutations are known to evade antibody protection, because more than 30 of those mutations are to the spike protein used as an immunogen by the existing vaccines, and because there have been mass Omicron outbreaks in heavily vaccinated populations, scientists are highly uncertain the existing vaccines can stop it from spreading. As the CDC put it on Dec. 20, “we don’t yet know . . . how well available vaccines and medications work against it.”The Supreme Court held in Jacobson v. Massachusetts (1905) that the right to refuse medical treatment could be overcome when society needs to curb the spread of a contagious epidemic. At Friday’s oral argument, all the justices acknowledged that the federal mandates rest on this rationale. But mandating a vaccine to stop the spread of a disease requires evidence that the vaccines will prevent infection or transmission (rather than efficacy against severe outcomes like hospitalization or death). As the World Health Organization puts it, “if mandatory vaccination is considered necessary to interrupt transmission chains and prevent harm to others, there should be sufficient evidence that the vaccine is efficacious in preventing serious infection and/or transmission.” For Omicron, there is as yet no such evidence.

Biden Admin Compiling Database Of Religious Objectors To Vaccine Within Obscure Agency - An obscure agency within the Biden administration, the Pretrial Services Agency, announced an Orwellian tracking schemeon Tuesday that could serve as a model for the entire US government to collect the names and "personal religious information" of federal employees who make "religious accommodation requests for religious exception from the federally mandated vaccination requirement," according to the Daily Signal."The primary purpose of the secured electronic file repository is to collect, maintain, use, and—to the extent appropriate and necessary—disseminate employee religious exception request information collected by the Agency in the context of the federally mandated COVID-19 vaccination requirement," according to the Federal Register.The announcement does not explain why the agency needs to create this list except to say that it will “assist the Agency in the collecting, storing, dissemination, and disposal of employee religious exemption request information collected and maintained by the Agency.” In other words, the list will help the agency make a list.The announcement also does not say what the agency will do with this information after it has decided an employee’s religious accommodation request.And neither does the announcement explain why the Biden administration chose to test this policy in an agency with a majority-black staff, who are both more religious and less vaccinated than other groups. So much for the president’s commitment to “racial equity.” -Daily SignalThe Signal suggests that the Biden administration is using the tiny agency as a test bed for deploying the database across the entire US government - noting that the announcement was relegated to an obscure group and given just 30 days for public comment. Meanwhile, the US government has treated religious exemptions as a joke. Take the Department of Defense, for example—which has failed to grant a single religious exemptionon behalf of any service members requesting one for the federal vaccine mandate. A group of Navy SEALS was recently successful in its federal lawsuit against the Biden administration on claims that its conscience rights under the First Amendment and the Religious Freedom Restoration Act were violated. From the outset of his administration, Biden voiced support for passage of the patently faith-hostile Equality Act—a bill that would gut the Religious Freedom Restoration Act entirely when it intersects with LGBTQ+ protections and entitlements in public accommodations.

Sounds like the NYT is telling its readers the Biden OSHA vaccine mandate is going down - Alex Berenson. Here’s the current lead of the New York Times article about today’s Supreme Court hearings on the mandates. It shows the conservative justices - importantly, including Chief Justice John Roberts - have serious questions about the most important mandate, the Occupational Safety and Health Administration rule that covers workers at big companies:The OSHA mandate is clearly at the greatest risk, as it is the biggest reach both legally and medically. The Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services mandate on health-care workers at least fits with what CMS does, and trying to protect patients from communicable disease is a worthy goal. (Too bad the Covid vaccines don’t stop infection or transmission.)I suspect the OSHA mandate goes. What happens to health-care workers may depend on whether Roberts and Brett Kavanaugh know the science well enough to understand how useless the vaccines have become. If not, they might just decide to split the difference and allow the CMS mandate to move forward. That would be a (seemingly) reasonable decision, and Roberts likes to seem reasonable…

Supreme Court Blocks Biden’s Vaccine Mandate for Large Employers - The New York Times— The Supreme Court on Thursday blocked the Biden administration from enforcing a vaccine-or-testing mandate for large employers, dealing a blow to a key element of the White House’s plan to address the pandemic as coronavirus cases resulting from the Omicron variant are on the rise.But in a modest victory for President Biden, the court allowed a more limited mandate requiring health care workers at facilities receiving federal money to be vaccinated.The vote in the employer mandate case was 6 to 3, with the liberal justices in dissent. The vote in the health care case was 5 to 4, with Chief Justice John G. Roberts Jr. and Justice Brett M. Kavanaugh joining the liberal justices to form a majority.The employer decision undercut one of President Biden’s most significant attempts to tame the virus and left the country with a patchwork of state laws and policies, largely leaving companies and businesses on their own.The president welcomed the ruling in his favor, saying in a statement that it would save the lives of health care workers and patients. But he said he was disappointed that the court had overturned the employer mandate, which he said was “grounded squarely in both science and the law.”In both the employer and health worker cases, the justices explored whether Congress had authorized the executive branch to take sweeping actions to address the health care crisis.The unsigned majority opinion in the employer case said a statute on workplace hazards did not justify a mandate that would have required more than 80 million workers to be vaccinated against the coronavirus or to wear masks and be tested weekly. It also stressed the novelty and sweep of the mandate issued by the Labor Department’s Occupational Safety and Health Administration, or OSHA, saying Congress had not authorized the agency to act and describing its response as “a blunt instrument.”The mandate “draws no distinctions based on industry or risk of exposure to Covid-19,” the majority opinion said, adding that it was “a significant encroachment into the lives — and health — of a vast number of employees.”But the opinion said more tailored regulations may be lawful given that “most lifeguards and linemen face the same regulations as do medics and meatpackers.”In a dissenting opinion, Justices Stephen G. Breyer, Sonia Sotomayor and Elena Kagan expressed incredulity at the court’s willingness to frustrate “the federal government’s ability to counter the unparalleled threat that Covid-19 poses to our nation’s workers.”Regulating safety in the workplace, the three dissenting justices wrote, is precisely what OSHA is commanded to do.They agreed that the key issue in the case was that of institutional competence to address the health care crisis.“Underlying everything else in this dispute,” they wrote, “is a single, simple question: Who decides how much protection, and of what kind, American workers need from Covid-19? An agency with expertise in workplace health and safety, acting as Congress and the president authorized? Or a court, lacking any knowledge of how to safeguard workplaces, and insulated from responsibility for any damage it causes?”

Supreme Court blocks vaccine mandate for large businesses, allows it for health care workers -The U.S. Supreme Court issued two highly anticipated rulings on Thursday, temporarily blocking a Biden administration COVID-19 vaccine mandate for large employers but allowing a separate rule applying only to health care workers at facilities receiving federal funding.The high court settled the matter concerning large employers in a 6-3 decision to block the rule that would have been issued by the Occupational Safety and Health Administration, with the three liberal justices dissenting."OSHA has never before imposed such a mandate. Nor has Congress. Indeed, although Congress has enacted significant legislation addressing the COVID–19 pandemic, it has declined to enact any measure similar to what OSHA has promulgated here," the majority opinion stated.As for health care facilities, the court ruled 5-4 to uphold for now the rule administered by the Department of Health and Human Services, with Justices Clarence Thomas, Samuel Alito, and Neil Gorsuch dissenting. "Both Medicare and Medicaid are administered by the Secretary of Health and Human Services, who has general statutory authority to promulgate regulations 'as may be necessary to the efficient administration of the functions with which [he] is charged.' One such function — perhaps the most basic, given the Department’s core mission — is to ensure that the health care providers who care for Medicare and Medicaid patients protect their patients’ health and safety," the majority stated.The rulings take effect immediately and will remain in place until legal challenges over their constitutionality are resolved through the justice system, and possibly through the Supreme Court.The administration’s employer mandate, announced by senior officials in early November, with an original effective date of Jan. 4, targets about 84 million U.S. workers, or roughly half of the U.S. workforce. Its deadline for employers to require masking was extended to Jan. 10. Full compliance, which the court’s decision now renders renders unenforceable, had been extended to Feb. 9. Administered by OSHA, the emergency temporary standard would have imposed penalties on U.S. employers with 100 or more workers that failed to ensure that all of their employees, aside from those who qualified for an exemption, were fully vaccinated for COVID-19, or tested for the virus, each week. Employers could choose whether to offer a testing option and wouldn't have had to pay for tests. Unvaccinated workers would have had to wear a mask at work.

Yes, the CDC Can Change Its Mind - The Nobel Laureate economist Paul Samuelson famously acknowledged in a Meet the Press interview:“Well when events change, I change my mind. What do you do?”This observation applies to the advice from medical authorities such as the CDC and WHO during the COVID pandemic. Some members of the public are fond of pillorying these agencies for having published different guidelines at different times, as though health officials are in the business of issuing ex cathedra dogma rather than responding to incomplete and ambiguous information. Science doesn’t deal in proof, it deals with the weight of evidence. A scientific hypothesis is one that is capable of being tested and falsified by experiment.I get it. I used to teach problem-based learning to first year medical students, and they often struggled with what to do with incomplete and ambiguous information, which is what physicians in clinics do every day. Sometimes, one cannot wait for all the tests to be completed and all the data analyzed before taking some action. With new evidence, a change in action is sometimes warranted.Thanks to COVID, the curtain on research and discovery has been pulled away and the omniscient Oz is revealed to be a mere mortal doing their best with the resources at hand. So when new and better data appear, it is right and responsible to examine previous advice in light of those data. This happens all the time, even if most people don’t see it. As the virus and our understanding of its epidemiology changes, the guidance changes. So rather than prating at the CDC for evolving standards in light of new data as though discovering that papal bull was found to be papal bull****, celebrate the fact that science is self-correcting and, overall, moves towards better understanding.

The stench of eugenics at the White House - In remarks reminiscent of the darkest days of the eugenics movement, Rochelle Walensky, the director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), said Friday that the fact that COVID-19 predominantly kills people who are “unwell to begin with” is “encouraging news.” As the number of people hospitalized with COVID-19 reached a record high, the CDC director was asked in an interview on ABC’s “Good Morning America” about “those encouraging headlines that we’re talking about this morning.” Walensky replied: The overwhelming number of deaths, over 75 percent, occurred in people who had at least four comorbidities, so really these are people who are unwell to begin with, and yes, really encouraging news in the context of Omicron.As a factual matter, the claim that COVID-19 in general, and the Omicron variant in particular, is only affecting the elderly and ill is false. The spread of the new variant has driven a record surge in hospitalizations of young people, and in particular children and infants. The long-term consequences for those who survive and suffer the consequences of “Long COVID” is still little understood.However, the suggestion that the “overwhelming number of deaths” occur among the elderly and those with preexisting conditions (comorbidities) is “encouraging news” is shocking in its implications.Walensky’s comments were broadly condemned by doctors, scientists and advocates for the disabled as an embrace of eugenics by the Biden administration.“This is eugenicist,” lawyer and disability activist Matthew Cortland, who is chronically ill, wrote on Twitter. “The problem is that the people running @CDCgov, including @CDCDirector, **fundamentally believe** it’s ‘encouraging’ if disabled and chronically ill people die. And all of their decisions are informed by, and enact, that belief.”None of this is hyperbole. Walensky’s comments express the turn on the part of the White House and dominant sections of the US political establishment toward an open embrace of the view that the lives of the chronically ill, the disabled, and the elderly are fundamentally valueless.The leading advocate of this policy is Ezekiel Emanuel, the former Obama administration official and current Biden COVID task force adviser, who is now being promoted in a full court press in the US print and broadcast media.

FDA director tells Senate “Most people in the US are going to get COVID” - Testifying before a Senate hearing Tuesday, the acting commissioner of the Food and Drug Administration, Janet Woodcock, blurted out the grim reality facing the American people if there is not a drastic change in policy toward the COVID-19 pandemic.Woodcock said point blank that given the enormous infectivity of the Omicron variant, “most people are going to get COVID.” More than a statement of fact, it is a declaration that the US government’s policy is to allow everyone to get infected with Omicron, regardless of the deadly consequences that arise from allowing hundreds of millions of people to catch a virulent pathogen.This remark was not disputed by the senators, Democratic and Republican, who attended the hearing, nor by the two principal witnesses for the Biden administration, Dr. Anthony Fauci and CDC Director Rochelle Walensky. Instead, Fauci and Walensky defended both Biden administration and their record of handling the pandemic debacle.Not once did either senators or government officials even consider the possibility of implementing broad-based restrictions to provide the health infrastructure breathing space, save the lives and livelihood of the population, and begin a serious effort to contain and eliminate the COVID-19 virus.Republican Senator Richard Burr of North Carolina said, “I’m not questioning the science … but I’m questioning your communication strategies.” This remark highlights that there are no real disagreements between the two parties over the priorities that have been firmly established to save the “economy,” i.e., the interests of the corporations and super-rich. It is the rapidly developing social crisis that has the senator on edge.According to the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS), as of yesterday, there were close to 146,000 people in hospitals for COVID-related admissions, a pandemic high for the United States. COVID now accounts for 26 percent of all entries into hospitals. Intensive care utilization has also climbed, with approximately 24,000 COVID patients in these highly specialized treatment units, making up nearly 37 percent of all current admissions. The present admission rates for adults across all age categories have essentially matched the previous winter’s peaks despite 73 percent of all people 18 and up having been fully vaccinated and nearly 23 percent with a third dose of the COVID vaccines.

‘Omicron will find everybody’: Fauci as US on 'threshold' of living with Covid - Despite soaring cases and record-high Covid-19 hospitalizations, the United States is approaching the "threshold" of transitioning to living with the coronavirus as a manageable disease, Anthony Fauci said Tuesday. Speaking to the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), the top US scientist said eliminating Covid was unrealistic and that "Omicron, with its extraordinary, unprecedented degree of efficiency of transmissibility, will ultimately find just about everybody." "There's no way we're going to eradicate this" virus, he said, given its contagiousness, its propensity to mutate into new variants and the large pool of unvaccinated people. Those up to date with their vaccines remain well protected against severe outcomes, but vaccine efficacy against infection has fallen. But "as Omicron goes up and down," the country will hopefully enter a new phase "where there'll be enough protection in (the) community, enough drugs available so that when someone does get infected and is in a high risk group, it will be very easy to treat that person," said Fauci. "When we get there, there's that transition, and we may be on the threshold of that right now," he said, while also stressing that with the country currently recording almost a million infections a day, nearly 150,000 people in hospital and more than 1,200 daily deaths, "we're not at that point." Official data showed there are currently 145,982 Covid hospitalizations, even though a significant percent are thought to be hospitalized "with" the disease rather than because of it. Earlier, the 81-year-old director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases slammed vaccine skeptic Republican Senator Rand Paul for unleashing "crazies" who were threatening his life and harassing his family, in unusually emotional congressional testimony. President Joe Biden's top officials, including his chief medical advisor Fauci, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) director Rochelle Walenksy and acting Food and Drug Administration (FDA) head Janet Woodcock were summoned to testify before the Senate about the pandemic. While many fellow lawmakers focused their questions on the lack of adequate testing and confusing new guidelines on how infected people should end their isolation, Paul, who has railed against vaccine mandates and refused to get vaccinated, said Fauci was personally to blame for people's deaths. "You personally attack me and with absolutely not a shred of evidence of anything you say," Fauci responded. "All of a sudden that kindles the crazies out there and I have life threats upon my life, harassment of my family and my children with obscene phone calls." Fauci then brandished a printout from Paul's website that showed the banner "Fire Dr Fauci" next to an invitation to donate to the Republican's campaign. Though Omicron causes severe cases at a lower rate than Delta, it is reaching more people because of its extreme infectiousness.

U.S. insurers must cover 8 at-home tests per member each month. Private insurers will have to cover the cost of eight at-home coronavirus tests per member per month starting on Saturday, the Biden administration said Monday.People who provide their insurance information will be able to get the tests with no out-of-pocket costs at certain pharmacies; in other cases, they will have to file claims to their insurers for reimbursement, according to the Department of Health and Human Services, just as they often do for medical services.The plan “incentivizes insurers to cover these costs up front and ensures individuals do not need an order from their health care provider to access these tests for free,” the agency said in a statement. Roughly 150 million Americans, or about 45 percent of the population, are privately insured.Insurers that do not require people to pay the upfront cost for tests at certain retailers will be charged no more than $12 per test, if the test was purchased at an out-of-network site. Otherwise, insurers will be charged the full price of a test.“Today’s action further removes financial barriers and expands access to Covid-19 tests for millions of people,” Chiquita Brooks-LaSure, the Biden administration’s Medicare and Medicaid chief, said in a statement.The at-home tests are typically sold in packs of two, and prices have ranged in cost from $14 to $34, which can be prohibitively expensive especially when tests are purchased in bulk. Tests ordered or administered by a health provider would continue to be covered by insurance without co-payment or a deductible, the administration said.Other countries have spent more heavily on rapid testing. In Britain, citizens can use a government website to order free rapid tests for home use. Germany invested hundreds of millions of dollars to create a network of 15,000 rapid testing sites. The United States has instead focused public purchasing on vaccines and efforts to encourage their uptake.Some local governments in the United States have invested more heavily in rapid testing to counter this latest wave of cases. Washington, D.C., for example, now allows residents to pick up four free rapid tests daily at eight libraries across the city.The new U.S. policy does not apply to at-home tests that Americans have already purchased. The Biden administration is also working on other efforts to get tests to people regardless of their insurance status, including a plan to deliver 500 million free rapid tests to the homes of Americans who order them, starting later this month.

HHS secretary orders Medicare to 'reassess' premium increase driven by Alzheimer's drug -- Secretary of Health and Human Services (HHS) Xavier Becerra on Monday ordered Medicare to “reassess” a proposed premium increase after an expensive new Alzheimer’s drug fell in price. “Today I’m instructing the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) to reassess the recommendation for the 2022 Medicare Part B premium, given the dramatic price change of the Alzheimer’s drug, Aduhelm,” Becerra said in a statement. “With the 50% price drop of Aduhelm on January 1, there is a compelling basis for CMS to reexamine the previous recommendation.” Medicare had announced in November a steep 14.5 percent increase for 2022 in the monthly premium that millions of seniors have to pay, from $148.50 to $170.10. Part of the reason for that increase was to cover the cost of Aduhelm, a pricey and controversial new Alzheimer’s drug, made by Biogen. But in late December, Biogen, facing uproar over the $56,000-per-year initial Aduhelm price, cut its price to $28,200. Medicare may now not need to raise as much money through premium hikes to cover the cost of the drug. The Biden administration has been facing pressure from Congress, including from Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.), to avert the hefty premium increase for seniors. There is still a swirl of controversy around the drug. Some experts say there was not sufficient evidence for the Food and Drug Administration to approve it, adding that it is not clear it even works. CMS is facing a major decision, set to be announced this month, over whether Medicare will cover Aduhelm, and in what situations, a move that will help decide the drug’s fate.

Hillary Clinton’s 2024 Election Comeback – WSJ -A perfect storm in the Democratic Party is making a once-unfathomable scenario plausible: a political comeback for Hillary Clinton in 2024.Several circumstances—President Biden’s low approval rating, doubts over his capacity to run for re-election at 82, Vice President Kamala Harris’s unpopularity, and the absence of another strong Democrat to lead the ticket in 2024—have created a leadership vacuum in the party, which Mrs. Clinton viably could fill.She is already in an advantageous position to become the 2024 Democratic nominee. She is an experienced national figure who is younger than Mr. Biden and can offer a different approach from the disorganized and unpopular one the party is currently taking.If Democrats lose control of Congress in 2022, Mrs. Clinton can use the party’s loss as a basis to run for president again, enabling her to claim the title of “change candidate.”Based on her latest public statements, it’s clear that Mrs. Clinton not only recognizes her position as a potential front-runner but also is setting up a process to help her decide whether or not to run for president again. She recently warned of the electoral consequences in the 2022 midterms if the Democratic Party continues to align itself with its progressive wing and urged Democrats to reject far-left positions that isolate key segments of the electorate.In a recent MSNBC interview, Mrs. Clinton called on Democrats to engage in “careful thinking about what wins elections, and not just in deep-blue districts where a Democrat and a liberal Democrat, or so-called progressive Democrat, is going to win.” She also noted that party’s House majority “comes from people who win in much more difficult districts.”Mrs. Clinton also took a veiled jab at the Biden administration and congressional Democrats in an effort to create distance: “It means nothing if we don’t have a Congress that will get things done, and we don’t have a White House that we can count on to be sane and sober and stable and productive.”Even Bill Clinton recently set the stage for his wife’s potential 2024 candidacy, referring to her in an interview with People magazine as “the most qualified person to run for office in my lifetime, including me,” adding that not electing her in 2016 was “one of the most profound mistakes we ever made.”

 Prince Andrew Loses Bid To Dismiss Pedo Lawsuit -A federal judge in Manhattan ruled Wednesday that the sexual abuse lawsuit against Prince Andrew will be allowed to proceed. Virginia Giuffre has alleged that Epstein and Ghislaine Maxwell trafficked her to the Duke of York, who raped her when she was 17-years-old. US District Judge Lewis A. Kaplan sided with Giuffre's lawyers, who had argued that a 2009 settlement Giuffre signed with Epstein for $500,000 - in which she agreed not to sue anyone linked to the convicted pedophile who could be a "potential defendant." Kaplan ruled that the agreement was only signed for Epstein's benefit, and not that of a "third party" like Andrew.Andrew's motion to dismiss on these grounds was "denied in all respects" by Kaplan, as the court "cannot rewrite the 2009 Agreement to give the defendant rights where the agreement does not clearly manifest an attempt to create them." This bad news for Andrew was compounded last week, after the Queen of England reportedly refused to foot his legal bills, forcing him to liquidate a Swiss chalet in a fire sale.

Federal Judge Denies Facebook’s Motion to Dismiss, Allowing FTC Antitrust Lawsuit to Proceed and Discovery to Commence --Judge James Boasberg of the federal district court for the District of Columbia yesterday denied Facebook’s motion to dismiss the Federal Trade Commission’s (FTC) action for failure to state a claim.Last June, the judge granted a Facebook motion to dismiss the FTC’s initial complaint, but without prejudice to repleading. The judge, an Obama appointee, invited the FTC to amend the original complaint, which it has now done to his satisfaction.From the Memorandum Opinion: Second time lucky? The Federal Trade Commission’s first antitrust suit against Facebook, Inc. stumbled out of the starting blocks, as this Court dismissed the Complaint last June. In doing so, the Court concluded that the Commission had failed to plausibly allege “that Facebook has monopoly power in the market for Personal Social Networking (PSN) services.” FTC v. Facebook, Inc., 2021 WL 2643627, at *1–2 (D.D.C. June 28, 2021). Because that “defect could conceivably be overcome by re-pleading,” however, the Court left the door ajar for the agency to amend the Complaint and reinstate its suit. Id. at *1.Eagerly accepting such invitation, the FTC has filed an Amended Complaint containing significant additions and revisions aimed at addressing the shortcomings identified in the Court’s prior Opinion. The core theory of the lawsuit remains essentially unchanged. The Commission continues to allege that Facebook has long had a monopoly in the market for PSN services and that it has unlawfully maintained that monopoly via two types of actions: first, by acquiring competitors and potential competitors — most notably, Instagram and WhatsApp — that it believed were well situated to eat into its monopoly; and second, by implementing and enforcing policies that prevented interoperability between Facebook and other apps that it viewed as nascent threats. The facts alleged this time around to fortify those theories, however, are far more robust and detailed than before, particularly in regard to the contours of Defendant’s alleged monopoly.Facebook nonetheless moves to dismiss once again, contending that the FTC’s latest effort is akin to rearranging the deck chairs on the Titanic. Although the agency may well face a tall task down the road in proving its allegations, the Court believes that it has now cleared the pleading bar and may proceed to discovery. That holding flows from several conclusions. First, the FTC has now alleged enough facts to plausibly establish that Facebook exercises monopoly power in the market for PSN services. Second, it has adequately alleged that the company’s dominant market share is protected by barriers to entry into that market. Third, the agency has also explained that Facebook not only possesses monopoly power, but that it has willfully maintained that power through anticompetitive conduct — specifically, the acquisitions of Instagram and WhatsApp. The Court will not, however, allow the allegations surrounding Facebook’s interoperability policies (also known as the Platform policies) to move forward; they founder for the same fundamental reasons as explained before: Facebook abandoned the policies in 2018, and its last alleged enforcement was even further in the past.

SBA direct lending would be a fraud magnet: GOP lawmakers - Republicans on the House of Representatives' Small Business Committee seized the differing fraud experiences of two Small Business Administration programs as evidence that the agency should not make direct loans going forward. During a Wednesday hearing, which was scheduled to discuss significant management and performance challenges facing the SBA, GOP lawmakers highlighted comparatively low levels of fraud that occurred under the $800 billion Paycheck Protection Program — the federal government's biggest COVID-19 relief program — compared to the smaller $321 billion Economic Injury Disaster Loan Program. Fraud under PPP was estimated to be just $4.6 billion, compared to $80 billion in the EIDL program. The key factor was the extent to which the SBA was involved in each program, Republicans argued. Private sector lenders made all PPP loans. The agency managed EIDL on its own.

FTC settles with Dun & Bradstreet over business credit reporting errors --The credit reporting company Dun & Bradstreet is settling charges that it deceived small businesses over the benefits of a product and continuously failed to fix errors in their credit reports, the Federal Trade Commission said Thursday. Dun & Bradstreet failed to give businesses a reliable way to clear up inaccurate information, and it then sold them a credit-building product that fell short of its promises, the agency said. A faulty credit report “can be a huge burden on a small business, raising costs and choking off opportunities,” Samuel Levine, director of the FTC’s Bureau of Consumer Protection, said in a press release. Judge Rakoff Signs a Dangerous Protective Order in Whistleblower Case Against 5-Count Felon JPMorgan Chase By Pam Martens - On January 6, Senior U.S. District Court Judge Jed Rakoff signed a dangerous Protective Order in theShaquala Williams v JPMorgan Chase case which resides in the Southern District of New York. Williams is a whistleblower who has critically important information to share with the public regarding this five-count felon bank.The Protective Order may make it impossible for the public to ever learn the essential details of what Williams is alleging. We’ll get to the problematic parts of the Protective Order shortly, but first some necessary background.Williams is an attorney who formerly worked in compliance at JPMorgan Chase. Part of her role was to make sure that the bank adhered to a non-prosecution agreement it had signed with the Justice Department in 2016.In 2016 the Justice Department had charged that JPMorgan’s Asia subsidiary engaged in quid pro quo agreements with Chinese officials to obtain investment-banking business and had falsified internal documents to cover up the activities. The quid pro quo agreements involved the bank putting the children of high Chinese government officials on its payroll in order to enhance its business interests in China.In exchange for avoiding prosecution, the Justice Department required the bank to put in place compliance controls around third-party payments. Williams alleges, among other serious charges, that the so-called third-party payment controls were a sham and that when she blew the whistle to her superiors at the bank, JPMorgan Chase retaliated against her by firing her in October 2019. Williams alleges the following was happening inside the bank to subvert the required compliance controls: […] So, just to summarize, Williams, an attorney with first-hand knowledge of the internal workings of JPMorgan Chase, is alleging that the largest bank in the U.S. was keeping two sets of books while dodging the requirements of a non-prosecution agreement with the U.S. Department of Justice. She is also alleging that a “high risk” former government official, tied in unexplained ways to Jamie Dimon, Chairman and CEO of JPMorgan Chase, was being improperly paid by the bank through an “emergency payment method.” These allegations from an attorney should have made front-page news across America, especially considering the serial criminal activities that the bank has admitted to since 2014. Instead, Bloomberg News devoted 267 words to the matter, then dropped the story. (For how mainstream media is engaging in a complete news blackout of another critical story involving Wall Street, see here.) The Protective Order that Rakoff has approved permits large parts of the documents obtained during discovery to be stamped “Confidential.” It also indicates that if anyone leaks those confidential documents, they can be held in contempt of court. It then says that “…the Court is unlikely to seal or otherwise afford confidential treatment to any Discovery Material introduced in evidence at trial, even if such material has previously been sealed or designated as Confidential.” That last sentence above might be comforting if there was any guarantee that this case would ever come to trial and be afforded the sunshine of an open courtroom. But the law firm representing Williams is Vladeck, Raskin, & Clark P.C., which describes itself as follows: “Because we are prepared to take cases to trial, we are frequently successful in negotiating resolutions for our clients short of litigation. In fact, some of our biggest successes are settlements you will not find on our website or in reported decisions.”

Crypto needs more scrutiny by Wall Street derivatives cop, lawmakers say - A key group of bipartisan lawmakers is calling on Wall Street’s top derivatives regulator to do more to rein in cryptocurrencies, which may be welcomed news for industry executives who prefer the agency to have a bigger role. In a letter to the chairman of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, the top Democrats and Republicans on the Senate and House Agriculture Committees say the watchdog has a “critical role to play“ in regulating digital assets. “It is imperative that customers are protected from fraud and abuse and that these markets are fair and transparent,” wrote lawmakers including Debbie Stabenow, the top Democrat of the Senate Agriculture Committee, and John Boozman, the panel’s top Republican.

Brainard stops short of endorsing climate stress tests for banks — Federal Reserve Gov. Lael Brainard on Thursday downplayed the impact that the U.S. central bank could have on American climate-change policy and told lawmakers that federal regulators should not dictate whether banks can lend to oil and gas manufacturers. Testifying before the Senate Banking Committee as the White House nominee for Fed vice chair, Brainard received a fairly warm welcome from Democrats, who lauded her work on Community Reinvestment Act reform. "Through her leadership, the Fed listened to the people whose lives and livelihoods are affected — civil rights leaders, affordable housing advocates, local officials and banks of all sizes,” said committee Chairman Sherrod Brown, D-Ohio. “She brought everyone to the table and is working to ensure banks meet the needs of all our communities.”

Climate-risk disclosures are fairly easy. The next steps aren't. -- U.S. banks have made early progress in sizing up the impact of climate change on their businesses, but risk disclosures, a relatively uncontroversial step, are likely just the beginning.Environmental groups and activist shareholders want banks to do more, arguing for measures like capital requirements and increased risk weighting for fossil-fuel lending. The industry has pushed back, arguing that such measures are heavy-handed, and that the industry lacks sufficient data and methodology to carry them out.Still, recent moves by regulators have made clear that banks will need to build upon their efforts to date. And while climate may still be a relatively nascent area of risk management, some experts are encouraging the banking industry to take a proactive approach.

Q4 2021 Update: Unofficial Problem Bank list Decreased to 57 Institutions The FDIC's official problem bank list is comprised of banks with a CAMELS rating of 4 or 5, and the list is not made public (just the number of banks and assets every quarter). Note: Bank CAMELS ratings are also not made public. CAMELS is the FDIC rating system, and stands for Capital adequacy, Asset quality, Management, Earnings, Liquidity and Sensitivity to market risk. The scale is from 1 to 5, with 1 being the strongest. As a substitute for the CAMELS ratings, surferdude808 is using publicly announced formal enforcement actions, and also media reports and company announcements that suggest to us an enforcement action is likely, to compile a list of possible problem banks in the public interest. Here are the quarterly changes and a few comments from surferdude808:Update on the Unofficial Problem Bank List through December 31, 2021. Since the last update at the end of September 2021, the list decreased by two to 57 institutions after two additions and four removals. Assets increased by $1.7 billion to $56.6 billion, with the change primarily resulting from a $1.7 billion increase from updated asset figures through September 30, 2021. A year ago, the list held 65 institutions with assets of $58.2 billion. Additions during the fourth quarter included BancCentral, National Association, Alva, OK ($542 million) and Herring Bank, Amarillo, TX ($521 million). Removals during the quarter because of action termination included Texas Citizens Bank, National Association, Pasadena, TX ($515 million); Civis Bank, Rogersville, TN ($189 million); and Canyon Community Bank, National Association, Tucson, AZ ($146 million). CornerstoneBank, Atlanta, GA ($224 million) exited through an unassisted merger. On November 30, 2021, the FDIC released third quarter results and provided an update on the Official Problem Bank List. In that release, the FDIC said there were 46 institutions with assets of $51 billion on the official list, down from the 51 institutions but up in assets from $46 billion in the second quarter of 2021. With the conclusion of the fourth quarter, we bring an updated transition matrix to detail how banks are transitioning off the Unofficial Problem Bank List. Since we first published the Unofficial Problem Bank List on August 7, 2009 with 389 institutions, 1,781 institutions have appeared on a weekly or monthly list since then. Only 3.2 percent of the banks that have appeared on a list remain today as 1,724 institutions have transitioned through the list. Departure methods include 1,017 action terminations, 411 failures, 278 mergers, and 19 voluntary liquidations. Of the 389 institutions on the first published list, only 3 or less than 1.0 percent, still have a troubled designation more than ten years later. The 411 failures represent 23.1 percent of the 1,781 institutions that have made an appearance on the list. This failure rate is well above the 10-12 percent rate frequently cited in media reports on the failure rate of banks on the FDIC's official list.

Citi warns US employees they’ll be fired if they don’t get COVID vaccine Citigroup has informed employees they will be fired if they do not comply with a companywide vaccine requirement by Jan. 14, The Post has learned, with the bank establishing the most stringent vaccination policy to date for a major financial company.The bank reminded workers in a memo Friday they must submit proof of vaccination by the end of next week, reiterating a deadline first established in October. But the memo warned that staffers who ignore the requirement will be placed on unpaid leave and terminated on Jan. 31.Citigroup took its hardline stance on the vaccine requirement amid a record surge in daily COVID-19 cases driven by the Omicron variant. Several major banks, including Citigroup, have told employees to work from home to start the new year due to the spike.More than 90 percent of Citigroup employees have already complied with the vaccination requirement — and the numbers are going up sharply from there, according to a source familiar. The bank previously said it would consider exemptions on religious or medical grounds and other accommodations on a case-by-case basis. Employees who dodge the vaccine requirement may be eligible for year-end bonuses, but only if they agree not to pursue legal action to obtain the money, the memo added.

 Why Bank of America’s $10 overdraft fee could catch on -- Bank of America’s decision to slash its overdraft fee from $35 to $10 is likely to have ripple effects across the industry, analysts said, pressuring other banks to follow suit. On its face, the megabank’s announcement Tuesday appeared less aggressive than the complete elimination of overdraft fees, a step that both Capital One Financial and Ally Financial have taken in the last seven months. But Bank of America’s sheer size — its $3 trillion in assets make it the second biggest bank in the country — could push other banks to reduce what they charge customers who spend more than they have in their accounts, according to analysts.

FTC settles with Dun & Bradstreet over business credit reporting errors --The credit reporting company Dun & Bradstreet is settling charges that it deceived small businesses over the benefits of a product and continuously failed to fix errors in their credit reports, the Federal Trade Commission said Thursday. Dun & Bradstreet failed to give businesses a reliable way to clear up inaccurate information, and it then sold them a credit-building product that fell short of its promises, the agency said. A faulty credit report “can be a huge burden on a small business, raising costs and choking off opportunities,” Samuel Levine, director of the FTC’s Bureau of Consumer Protection, said in a press release.

Lenders urge CFPB to scale back small-business data collection plan -It’s been called a fishing expedition. A burden on small banks and credit unions. An example of regulatory overreach. A proposal to collect data on the race, ethnicity and gender of small-business borrowers has drawn nearly 1,700 comments to the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, with many of them expanding on the criticism that had been building since it was unveiled in September.Many community bankers and credit union executives said the rule would make it harder for small financial institutions to compete, forcing some to exit small-business lending entirely. Others said aspects of the data collection were at odds with how many banks do business.

CFPB likely to punt data-sharing rule into 2023 - The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau is more than a year away from releasing a long-awaited proposal on consumers’ right to control their own financial data, far later than many had expected, according to people familiar with the bureau’s thinking. The rule has been hotly anticipated because it would address the ability of aggregators and other fintechs to obtain consumers' bank account data through screen scraping and application programming interfaces. These firms seek broad access to help consumers manage their money, but banks and consumer advocates generally want the CFPB to narrow the scope of data collected and provide increased security, privacy and other protections. The CFPB in the fall had listed April in the government’s unified agenda as the next date for some action to take place on its data-access rule, raising expectations about the timing of a proposal, according to several experts.

What card issuers can learn from CFPB's buy now/pay later inquiry --The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau’s recently announced inquiry into the operations of buy now/pay later fintechs raises many questions about how the rapidly growing industry’s policies affect overall consumer debt.But the CFPB’s probe could also end up spotlighting the very reasons consumers have flocked to simpler BNPL loans over the last few years, putting pressure on credit card issuers to modernize their own products.“Shining a light on the BNPL industry’s practices will show that in most cases the BNPL borrowing model is a precision instrument that’s much safer for everyone than the open-ended credit card model,” said Brian Shniderman, U.S. CEO and global chief strategy officer at Opy, the U.S.-based subsidiary of BNPL fintech Openpay Group, founded in Australia in 2013.

 Largest seller of stolen credit cards on dark web shuts down |-Another seller of stolen credit cards on the dark web appears to be closing up shop. UniCC has posted on dark web forums in both Russian and English that it is shutting down, according to Elliptic Enterprises Ltd., a blockchain forensics firm. UniCC is the the largest dark web vendor of stolen credit cards, with $358 million in purchases made through the market since 2013 using cryptocurrencies, according to Elliptic. “Don’t build any conspiracy theories about us leaving,” says one of the posts, according to Elliptic. “It is weighted decision. We are not young and our health do not allow to work like this any longer.”

Leading Index for Commercial Real Estate "Declines in December"; Up Sharply Year-over-year - From Dodge Data Analytics: Dodge Momentum Index Declines In December The Dodge Momentum Index fell 3% in December to 166.4 (2000=100), down from the revised November reading of 170.7. The Momentum Index, issued by Dodge Construction Network, is a monthly measure of the initial report for nonresidential building projects in planning, which have been shown to lead construction spending for nonresidential buildings by a full year. In December, commercial planning fell 4%, and institutional planning slipped 1%.Despite these declines, 2021 was a banner year for the Dodge Momentum Index — despite the lingering risks of COVID-19 and low demand for some types of nonresidential buildings. Throughout the year, the overall Momentum Index increased 23%, the strongest annual gain since 2005. Both the commercial and institutional components of the Momentum Index saw similar gains — with their levels of activity reaching 13- and 14-year highs, respectively.This graph shows the Dodge Momentum Index since 2002. The index was at 166.4 in December, down from 170.7 in November.According to Dodge, this index leads "construction spending for nonresidential buildings by a full year". This index suggested a decline in Commercial Real Estate construction through most of 2021, but a solid pickup in 2022.

 Mortgage Rates: Moving on Up – McBride - Mortgage News Daily reports that the most prevalent 30-year fixed rate is now at 3.59% for top tier scenarios. Earlier this week, Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily wrote: Highest Mortgage Rates Spiking at Fastest Pace in a Long Time This morning's additional weakness in the bond market brings the average conventional 30yr fixed scenario closer to 3.625% (as always, rate quotes depend on multiple factors, and the overall range is very wide).With the ten-year yield at 1.73%, and based on an historical relationship, 30-year rates should currently be around 3.6%. So, mortgage rates are as expected based on the ten-year yield. The graph shows the relationship between the monthly 10-year Treasury Yield and 30-year mortgage rates from the Freddie Mac survey.Freddie Mac has a similar graph here with a linear fit (using data since 1990). Using their formula, 30-year rates would also be around 3.56%.If the ten-year yield rises to 2.0%, 30-year mortgage rates will probably increase to around 3.8% - still historically very low, but up significantly from the levels in 2021. The general rule of thumb is refinance activity will be strong if current mortgage rates are 50bps lower than the maximum of the previous year (this is just a general rule - but it works pretty well). The following graph shows the MBA Refinance Index (Blue) and the change in mortgage rates (Red). The change is calculated as Maximum in Previous Year minus the current rate). When the red line is above 0.5% (more than 50bps decline in mortgage rates), then refinance activity generally picks up. Currently the maximum for the last year is 3.22% (excluding this week), and with current rates at 3.59%, refinance activity will probably decline significantly over the next few weeks.

MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest Weekly Survey -- From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest MBA Weekly Survey - Mortgage applications increased 1.4 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending January 7, 2022. The previous week’s results included an adjustment for the holidays... The Refinance Index decreased 0.1 percent from the previous week and was 50 percent lower than the same week one year ago. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index increased 2 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index increased 51 percent compared with the previous week and was 17 percent lower than the same week one year ago.“Mortgage rates increased significantly across all loan types last week as the Federal Reserve’s signaling of tighter policy ahead pushed U.S. Treasury yields higher. The 30-year fixed rate hit 3.52 percent, its highest level since March 2020. Rates at these levels are quickly closing the door on refinance opportunities for many borrowers. Although refinance activity changed little over the week, applications remained at their lowest level in over a month, and conventional refinance applications were at their lowest level since January 2020,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s Associate Vice President of Economic and Industry Forecasting. “The housing market started 2022 on a strong note. Both conventional and government purchase applications showed increases, with FHA purchase applications increasing almost 9 percent, and VA applications increasing more than 5 percent. MBA expects solid growth in purchase activity this year, as demographic drivers and the strong economy support housing demand. However, the strength in growth will be dependent on housing inventory growing more rapidly to meet demand.”...The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($647,200 or less) increased to 3.52 percent from 3.33 percent,with points decreasing to 0.45 from 0.48 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value ratio (LTV) loans..The first graph shows the refinance index since 1990.The refinance index will probably decline sharply next week.The second graph shows the MBA mortgage purchase index

Update: Framing Lumber Prices Up 75% Year-over-year - Here is another monthly update on framing lumber prices. This graph shows CME random length framing futures through January 10th. Lumber was at $1,160 per 1000 board feet this morning. This is down from a peak of $1,733, but up $515 from a year ago.Lumber price are up 75% year-over-year.A combination of strong demand and various supply constraints have pushed up the price of lumber again.

Retail Sales Decreased 1.9% in December - On a monthly basis, retail sales were decreased 1.9% from November to December (seasonally adjusted), but sales were up 16.9 percent from December 2020. From the Census Bureau report: Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for December 2021, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $626.8 billion, a decrease of 1.9 percent from the previous month, but 16.9 percent above December 2020.This graph shows retail sales since 1992. This is monthly retail sales and food service, seasonally adjusted (total and ex-gasoline). Retail sales ex-gasoline were down 2.0% in December.The second graph shows the year-over-year change in retail sales and food service (ex-gasoline) since 1993. Retail and Food service sales, ex-gasoline, increased by 15.2% on a YoY basis. Sales in December were well below expectations, and sales in October and November were revised down, combined.

U.S. retail sales tumble in December amid shortages (Reuters) - U.S. retail sales dropped by the most in 10 months in December, weighed down by shortages and spiraling COVID-19 infections, which could temper expectations that economic growth accelerated sharply in the fourth quarter. Americans started their holiday shopping in October to avoid empty shelves, which pulled sales away from December. Sales could weaken further in January as raging coronavirus infections, driven by the Omicron variant, limit consumer traffic to places like restaurants and bars. "The weakness in December was likely more about the timing of spending than the level," "Support is coming from job and income growth which is strong by pre-pandemic standards and abundant cash and available credit for many consumers." Retail sales dropped 1.9% last month, the largest decline since February 2021, after rising 0.2% in November, the Commerce Department said on Friday. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast retail sales unchanged. Estimates ranged from as low as a drop of 2.0% to as high as a 0.8% increase. Unadjusted sales rose 10.0% last month after gaining 2.5% in November. Retail sales, which are mostly goods, increased 16.9% year-on-year in December. Bottlenecks in the supply chains caused by the pandemic have led to shortages of goods, including motor vehicles. The pulling forward of sales could also have impacted the so-called seasonal factor, the model that the government uses to strip out seasonal fluctuations from the data. The online sales category was hardest hit by the drag from the seasonal factor, plunging 8.7%. Receipts at auto dealerships slipped 0.4% after rising 0.2% in November. Automobiles remain scarce because of a global semiconductor shortage. Sales at electronics and appliance stores dropped 2.9%. Receipts at service stations fell 0.7% as gasoline prices retreated from higher levels seen in the prior months. Sales at food and beverage stores fell 0.5%. Sales at clothing stores declined 3.1%. There were also declines is sales as at sporting goods, hobby, musical instrument and book stores. Furniture store sales tumbled 5.5%, while receipts at electronics and appliance stores plunged 2.9%. But sales at building material and garden equipment suppliers rose 0.9%. Receipts at restaurants and bars decreased 0.8%. Restaurants and bars are the only services category in the retail sales report. These sales were up 41.3% from last December. Excluding automobiles, gasoline, building materials and food services, retail sales plunged 3.1%. Data for November was revised lower to show these so-called core retail sales falling 0.5% instead of dipping 0.1% as previously reported. Core retail sales correspond most closely with the consumer spending component of gross domestic product. Economists say the surge in core retail sales in October was enough to ensure strong economic growth in the fourth quarter. "While household spending will be stronger in the fourth quarter compared to the third quarter, the data are signaling a sharp deceleration heading into the first quarter," . Though inflation has outpaced wage gains, spending remains underpinned by massive savings and increased job security. Economic growth estimates for the October-December quarter were topping a 7.0% annualized rate before the retail sales data. The economy grew at a 2.3% pace in the third quarter.

Wage Price Spiral Takes Off, Companies Point at it: Albertsons Shares -8%, JP Morgan’s Dimon Sees “Huge Pressure” on Labor Market by Wolf Richter – For businesses, there is a good side to inflation: They can jack up prices and get away with it without losing customers because customers bought into the inflationary mindset and are paying whatever; and thereby companies can raise their revenues without having to actually sell more.And there is a bad side to inflation for businesses: Their costs are surging, not just the costs of products and services, but also the costs of labor. And those surging costs are now squeezing margins. Albertsons Companies got whacked after the company, which also owns Safeway, reported stellar sales growth of 8.4% in its third quarter, ended December 4, driven by increases in retail prices, incremental sales from administering vaccines in its pharmacies, and from buying and opening additional stores.That’s the good side of inflation: the company is able to charge higher retail prices and thereby increase its revenues.Then comes the bad side of inflation: Cost increases. Labor costs are now surging, as companies need to offer sharply higher wages and salaries in order to hire and retain employees amid massive churn as record numbers of workers quit their jobs to jump to new jobs for better pay and better working conditions.Albertsons noted the effects of cost increases on its gross margins, which declined by 40 basis points to 28.9% due to an “increase in product and supply chain costs driven by the current inflationary environment.”And its selling and administrative expenses were hit by “higher employee costs.” It further clarified: “The increase in employee costs was the result of additional labor to support the increase in fresh sales, market-driven wage rate increases, and higher equity-based compensation expense.”At the other end of the wage scale, the biggest Wall Street banks have had to raise their already huge pay packages to hire and retain across the board, from junior bankers and analysts to executives, and those increases make the wage increases at grocery stores pale in comparison.JP Morgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon said in a Fox News interview today that, for the first time in his life, there is “huge pressure” on the labor market. “The price of labor is going up, we’re going to have to deal with it,” he said.And this is now everywhere the same song: There is enormous pressure in the labor market as companies are trying to hire people in order to meet demand that has been stimulated by over $10 trillion in monetary stimulus and fiscal deficit spending in less than two years in just the US alone.

Consumer Price Index: December Headline at 7.04% - The Bureau of Labor Statistics released the December Consumer Price Index data this morning. The year-over-year non-seasonally adjusted Headline CPI came in at 7.04%, up from 6.81% the previous month. Year-over-year Core CPI (ex Food and Energy) came in at 5.45%, up from 4.93% the previous month and is above the Fed's 2% PCE target.Here is the introduction from the BLS summary, which leads with the seasonally adjusted monthly data:The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.5 percent in December on a seasonally adjusted basis after rising 0.8 percent in November, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 7.0 percent before seasonal adjustment.Increases in the indexes for shelter and for used cars and trucks were the largest contributors to the seasonally adjusted all items increase. The food index also contributed, although it increased less than in recent months, rising 0.5 percent in December. The energy index declined in December, ending a long series of increases; it fell 0.4 percent as the indexes for gasoline and natural gas both decreased.The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.6 percent in December following a 0.5-percent increase in November. This was the sixth time in the last 9 months it has increased at least 0.5 percent.Along with the indexes for shelter and for used cars and trucks, the indexes for household furnishings and operations, apparel, new vehicles, and medical care all increased in December. As in November, the indexes for motor vehicle insurance and recreation were among the few to decline over the month.The all items index rose 7.0 percent for the 12 months ending December, the largest 12-month increase since the period ending June 1982. The all items less food and energy index rose 5.5 percent, the largest 12-month change since the period ending February 1991. The energy index rose 29.3 percent over the last year, and the food index increased 6.3 percent. Read moreInvesting.com was looking for a 0.4% MoM change in seasonally adjusted Headline CPI and a 0.5% in Core CPI. Year-over-year forecasts were 7.0% for Headline and 5.4% for Core.The first chart is an overlay of Headline CPI and Core CPI (the latter excludes Food and Energy) since the turn of the century. The highlighted two percent level is the Federal Reserve's Core inflation target for the CPI's cousin index, the BEA's Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index.

BLS: CPI increased 0.5% in December; Core CPI increased 0.6% --From the BLS:The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.5 percent in December on a seasonally adjusted basis after rising 0.8 percent in November, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 7.0 percent before seasonal adjustment. Increases in the indexes for shelter and for used cars and trucks were the largest contributors to the seasonally adjusted all items increase. The food index also contributed, although it increased less than in recent months, rising 0.5 percent in December. The energy index declined in December, ending a long series of increases; it fell 0.4 percent as the indexes for gasoline and natural gas both decreased.The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.6 percent in December following a 0.5-percent increase in November. This was the sixth time in the last 9 months it has increased at least 0.5 percent. Along with the indexes for shelter and for used cars and trucks, the indexes for household furnishings and operations, apparel, new vehicles, and medical care all increased in December. As in November, the indexes for motor vehicle insurance and recreation were among the few to decline over the month.The all items index rose 7.0 percent for the 12 months ending December, the largest 12-month increase since the period ending June 1982. The all items less food and energy index rose 5.5 percent, the largest 12-month change since the period ending February 1991. The energy index rose 29.3 percent over the last year, and the food index increased 6.3 percent.Both CPI and core CPI were close to expectations. I'll post a graph later today after the Cleveland Fed releases the median and trimmed-mean CPI.

Cleveland Fed: Median CPI increased 0.4% and Trimmed-mean CPI increased 0.4% in December -The Cleveland Fed released the median CPI and the trimmed-mean CPI this morning: According to the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, the median Consumer Price Index rose 0.4% in December. The 16% trimmed-mean Consumer Price Index increased 0.4% in December. "The median CPI and 16% trimmed-mean CPI are measures of core inflation calculated by the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland based on data released in the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ (BLS) monthly CPI report".Note: The Cleveland Fed released the median CPI details here: "Used Cars" were up 51% annualized. Note that Owners' Equivalent Rent and Rent of Primary Residence account for almost 1/3 of median CPI, and these measures were up around 5% annualized in December. This graph shows the year-over-year change for these four key measures of inflation. On a year-over-year basis, the median CPI rose 3.8%, the trimmed-mean CPI rose 4.8%, and the CPI less food and energy rose 5.5%. Core PCE is for November and increased 4.7% year-over-year.

CPI Inflation in December – Menzie - Beware the headlines — month-on-month inflation is (again) down, even if up year-on-year. Trimmed and chained CPI price inflation are also down, while sticky price inflation was flat. Headline and core CPI did surprise on the upside though (m/m, 10 bps over Bloomberg consensus).First, recall 12 month inflation rates (aka y/y rates) are largely backward looking. Month-on-month measures are more reflective of current conditions, albeit more noisy. Figure 1: CPI month-on-month inflation rate, annualized (blue), 12 month or year-on-year inflation rate (pink), in decimal form (i.e., 0.05 means 5%). NBER defined peak-to-trough recession dates shaded gray. Source: BLS, NBER, and author’s calculations. For core inflation, there’s a slightly different picture, with y/y rising as m/m stays elevated. Figure 2: CPI core month-on-month inflation rate, annualized (blue), 12 month or year-on-year inflation rate (pink), in decimal form (i.e., 0.05 means 5%). NBER defined peak-to-trough recession dates shaded gray. Source: BLS, NBER, and author’s calculations.What do other measures of overall inflation look like on a m/m basis? Figure 3: Month-on-month inflation of CPI (blue), chained CPI (brown), 16% trimmed CPI inflation (red), sticky price CPI inflation (green), personal consumption expenditure deflator inflation (black), all in decimal form (i.e., 0.05 means 5%). Chained CPI seasonally adjusted using arithmetic deviations (brown). NBER defined recession dates (peak-to-trough) shaded gray. Source: BLS, BEA, Atlanta Fed, NBER, and author’s calculations.Chained CPI m/m inflation is down, as is trimmed mean, while sticky price inflation held flat . A lower trimmed mean inflation means that the decline is broad-based, and not being driven by outliers. Flat sticky price inflation means that infrequently changed prices are continuing to rise at the same pace as in November.Moving to core measures (i.e., excluding food and energy prices), we see the following picture (note the vertical scale is made to have the same range as in Figure 3 to better illustrate how core measures have exhibited less variability). Figure 4: Month-on-month CPI core inflation (blue), chained CPI core (brown), sticky price CPI core inflation (green), personal consumption expenditure core deflator inflation (black), all in decimal form (i.e., 0.05 means 5%). Chained CPI seasonally adjusted using arithmetic deviations (brown). NBER defined recession dates (peak-to-trough) shaded gray. Source: BLS, BEA, Atlanta Fed, NBER, and author’s calculations. Beware of “records”. On a month-on-month basis, inflation has been higher over the past 20 years.Figure 5: CPI month-on-month inflation rate, annualized (blue), in decimal form (i.e., 0.05 means 5%). NBER defined peak-to-trough recession dates shaded gray. Source: BLS, NBER, and author’s calculations.So, on a month-to-month basis, inflation is now nowhere near record highs. Going forward, shelter costs are likely to have a measurable impact. CEA shows the contribution of owner occupied equivalent rent and rent of primary residence to headline CPI, y/y.Despite the upside surprise, the 5 year inflation breakeven (unadjusted) fell 5 bps.

Consumer inflation lessens in December; real wages increase, but a consumer slowdown remains likely (graphs) Consumer prices increased 0.5% in December, a deceleration from the past several months. But this is still well above the typical monthly increase in prices pre-pandemic: On a YoY basis, at 7.1% consumer inflation is the highest since the big Reagan recession of 1981-82. My favorite measure, CPI ex energy, is also up 5.6% YoY, and tied for the worst since the 1981-82 recession as well: Inflation in new and used vehicle prices has risen again to over 20% YoY; and gas prices YoY are still up at levels that in the past have been associated with economic slowdowns or recessions: As I have been forecasting for months, house price increases have fed through into rents and “owners equivalent rent,” which has continued to increase: Interestingly, in both prior cases where owners equivalent rent surged after house prices did - 2001 and 2006 - the surge in overall consumer prices (gold in the graph below) quickly ended and went into reverse: In both cases, however, the Fed had aggressively raised interest rates in the meantime, helping to cause a slowdown (2006) or recession (2001), which in turn led to lower inflation. The bond market fully expects the Fed to do the same thing this year. Below I show the yield on the 10 year Treasury (blue), 2 year Treasury (red), and Fed funds rate (black): Note that in recent decades bond market investors have almost always anticipated the Fed’s move, bidding up yields on the 2 year bond in advance of Fed interest rate hikes. There have been some false positives (1996, 2002, 2011) but more often the bond market has been right. Now let’s talk about “real” wages. To cut to the chase, this month the news was positive. Average real hourly wages increased in December by 0.2%, although they are still -1.2% below their interim peak last December: Additionally, real aggregate payrolls, an overall measure of consumer health, also increased 0.3% in December, and returned to equal their peak from September: For the past 50+ years, when aggregate real wages have retreated from peak for 3 to 9 months, a recession has typically followed: To sum up, while real wage growth has slowed down or halted, depending on which measure we use, they have not gone into reverse. This is consistent with taking a near term recession off the table for now. On the other hand, as I wrote last month, “we certainly are at a point where a sharp deceleration beginning with the consumer sector of the economy is more likely than not.” While perhaps I would modify that by dropping the descriptor “sharp,” a deceleration in the consumer sector remains supported by December’s inflation report.

"The Growing Risk Is That Inflation Will Land Closer To 3%" - Here Is The Heatmap From Today's Red-Hot CPI Report - For all the ideologically and politically-biased rhetoric on both sides of the argument, in December consumer inflation continued to surge in line with consensus expectations. The core CPI rose by 0.55% mom, which boosted the yoy rate to 5.45% from 4.93%— the highest since 1991. Headline CPI was up 0.47% mom as energy prices dropped by 0.4% mom and food rose 0.5% mom. Headline % yoy increased to 7.04% from 6.81%—the highest since the summer of 1982 when ET dominated the box office. Some more details from BofA's Aditya Bhave: core goods were up 0.9% mom and 10.7% yoy. Supply issues continue in the auto sector, and as BofA notes, wholesale prices suggest further upside in used car prices in the months ahead. Outside of autos, core goods components broadly gained as apparel jumped another 1.7% and household furnishings/supplies rose 1.3% mom. Meanwhile education/communication commodities slipped for the third consecutive month, this time by 0.4%. According to BofA, the breadth of gains in goods reflects both global supply chain disruptions and the pull-forward in the holiday shopping season, which meant earlier discounting in October. Once more the largest contribution (15bp) was from used cars, which surged 3.5% mom, in line with the Manheim used car index. Of course, the surge in inflation is not just due to Covid and other distortions. There is a strong underlying cyclical pickup in prices as well, which is most evident in OER and rent of primary residence: Both series increased 0.4% mom for the fourth consecutive month. Travel components were also very strong despite the winter Covid surge. Lodging rose by 1.2% mom and airline fares soared 2.7% mom. Given the timing of the Omicron wave, however, its impact might be reflected more strongly in January prices. Broader transportation services fell by 0.3% mom. This was a smaller drop than expected given unfavorable seasonal factors. Outside of that, services components were mixed. Recreation fell -0.1% mom, education / communication was up 0.1% mom and other personal services popped 0.7% mom. Medical care services grew 0.3% mom. Overall, BofA says that the breadth of the inflation supports the bank's call for four Fed hikes this year, along with the start of quantitative tightening (a move which we counter will tip the US into recession on short notice and force the Fed to launch a fresh wave of much more aggressive easing shortly thereafter). And while core inflation is likely to peak in March 2022, after which the yoy comparisons will turn highly unfavorable, but the key question is where core inflation lands in the medium term. And increasingly the risks are that it will land closer to 3% than the Fed’s 2% target. In kneejerk response, the rates market generally looked through the close to consensus print. The nominal curve flattened slightly, inflation breakevens were 2-3 bps lower and real rates 1-2 bps higher. The modest declines in inflation breakevens across much of the curve suggest that the persistent components of the print may not have been as strong as feared, though overall the print still endorses a sooner and more aggressive Fed policy response. Finally, here is a heatmap of today's inflation data, first on a M/M basis...

Purchasing Power of the Dollar Goes WHOOSH! - By Wolf Richter - The broadest Consumer Price Index (CPI-U) jumped by 0.5% in December from November, and by 7.04% from a year ago, the highest since June 1982, according to data released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics today.But there’s a big difference between now and 1982. Now, the inflation index is spiking, and has been getting worse month after month; back in 1982, inflation was coming down. The last time inflation actually spiked like this on the way up and broke through the 7%-mark was in June 1978: By a narrower measure, the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W), the index used for Social Security COLAs, spiked by 7.8%, the worst since January 1982.Inflation without food and energy – tracked by the “core” CPI – spiked by 5.5%, the most since February 1991. Food and energy prices can move with the volatile prices of the underlying commodities, and there have been some big surges among those commodities. But this “core” CPI shows how deep inflation has moved into the economy beyond prices that depend on volatile commodities. But so far, the Fed has refused to deal with this inflation. It is still repressing short-term interest rates to near 0%, and it’s still printing money in large amounts, though less than it did two months ago.The effective federal funds rate (EFFR), which the Fed targets with its interest rate policy, is now at 0.08%. With CPI-U inflation at 7.04%, the inflation-adjusted or “real” EFFR is a negative 6.96%, the most negative “real” EFFR in the data going back to 1954, the hallmark of the most reckless Fed ever.The purchasing power of the consumer’s dollar dropped further – that’s what inflation in consumer prices means. Inflation is the loss of the purchasing power of the dollar and everything denominated in dollars, such as wages and salaries. By December 2021, the purchasing power of $100 in January 2000 dwindled to $60.60:The CPI contains two measures of rent that account for 32% of the CPI. These rent factors are the biggie. They dropped sharply in 2020 and early 2021, then U-turned in June and have been rising every month since, gradually picking up the increases in market rents. Because both measures are still below CPI, they’re still holding down CPI, but less than before.“Rent of primary residence” (makes up 7.6% of overall CPI), rose by 3.3% year-over-year but remains below where it had been before the pandemic, as it is gradually pushed higher by the surge in market rents (red in the chart below).“Owner’s equivalent rent of residences” (makes up 23.5% of overall CPI), the stand-in for the costs of homeownership, is based on surveys that ask homeowners to estimate what their home might rent for. It rose 3.8% year-over-year (green line). The two indices are now picking up the surges in market rents that started many months ago. Together, they account for nearly 1/3 of CPI, and while they’re still pushing down CPI, they’re pushing down less.Food costs (14% of overall CPI) jumped 6.3% year-over-year. The sub-index for “beef and veal” jumped by 18.6%. OK, switch to pork, which jumped by 15.1%. OK, switch to chicken, which jumped by 10.4%. OK, switch to “fresh fish and seafood,” which jumped “only” 10.2%, hahahaha. OK, forget it, switch to lentils…. Energy costs (7.5% of overall CPI) spiked by 29.3% year-over-year:The CPI for used cars and trucks (3.4% in overall CPI) jumped by 37.3% year-over-year. And it’s still going to get worse over the next month or two because wholesale prices, which lead the CPI by about two months, spiked majestically over the past three months, and are up 47% year-over-year, and the December CPI just picked up a portion of the spike (chart shows index value, not % change):

December inflation surge leaves US workers’ wages even further behind - Consumer prices in the US rocketed upward in December, reaching the highest inflation rate in 40 years, 7 percent compared to 12 months ago, according to a report released Wednesday by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. With average wages rising only 4.7 percent over the same period, workers suffered a cut in their living standard of 2.3 percent year on year. December was the third month in a row that the inflation rate was about 6 percent, contradicting forecasts by the Biden administration and the Federal Reserve Board that the inflation spike that began in the spring would be only “transitory.” The Labor Department’s “core inflation rate,” which excludes volatile food and energy prices, rose 0.6 percent in December, following a rise of 0.5 percent in November. It was the sixth time out of the nine months since April, when the inflation spike began, that core inflation was above 0.5 percent. The main contributors to the month-to-month increase were used cars and trucks, and rent and other housing costs, while gasoline prices dropped slightly compared to the previous month. For the year-long inflation, the biggest contributors were gasoline, up 49.6 percent compared to December 2020; used cars and trucks, up 37.3 percent; hotel and motel rates, up 27.6 percent; and kitchen and living room furniture, up 17.3 percent Food prices rose 6.3 percent compared to a year ago, slightly below the overall inflation rate. But meat products were up 12.5 percent, with even bigger increases in some sub-categories: beef up 18.6 percent, bacon up 18.6 percent, pork products up 15 percent. Chicken was up 10.4 percent, eggs up 11.1 percent. Bread was up 11 percent. Just as worrying as the rise in food prices was the shortage of basic items at supermarkets: meat, poultry, fresh fruit and vegetables, even less perishable items like grains, bread and cereal. Here supply-chain issues, mainly related to the shortage of truck, warehouse and distribution workers, largely due to the COVID-19 pandemic, were the main factors. Rising costs of inputs, including labor, have put small businesses in continuing crisis. A survey conducted by the National Federation of Independent Business found that 49 percent of small businesses planned to raise prices they charge consumers in the next three months. In testimony before the Senate Banking Committee Tuesday, the day before the December inflation figures were released, Federal Reserve Board Chairman Jerome Powell said that a shortage of workers, not supplies like semiconductors, was the main problem facing American businesses. The shrinking labor force—mainly a byproduct of the COVID pandemic—“can be an issue going forward for inflation, probably more so than these supply-chain issues,” he said. He warned that the Fed was prepared to carry out multiple increases in interest rates to choke off inflation. “If inflation does become too persistent, if these high levels of inflation get entrenched in our economy, and in people’s thinking, then inevitably that will lead to much tighter monetary policy from us, and it could lead to a recession, and that would be bad for workers,” he said.

Buyers’ Strike Finally? Dynamics of Crazy Used-Vehicle Prices Weakened, Retail Sales Fell, Supply Ballooned to 23% Above Normal - When are potential buyers of used vehicles finally burned out on paying these ridiculous prices? When is price resistance finally setting in? When are people finally going on buyers’ strike so that prices would have to come down from that ridiculous spike? Buying a car is for most people a discretionary purchase: They could easily drive their trade-in another year or two; they don’t have to buy a car now, unlike groceries. Buyers can pull back, which they proved during the Great Recession. And in June, July, and August, it seemed we had the tepid beginnings of some sort of price resistance when used vehicle wholesale prices dipped a little; and with a lag, retail prices dipped a little. But then the whole thing exploded again. In December, the ridiculous spike in wholesale prices, tracked by the Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index, rose another 1.6%, and was up 47% from a year ago. Manheim, the largest auto auction operator in the US, pointed out that the underlying dynamics that already started to shift at the end of November, shifted further by the end of December, when sales declined and supply jumped again, and was sharply above average. This ridiculous spike looks to be getting ready to turn the other way: Compared to two years ago, before this craziness kicked in, the Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index spiked by 67.4%, which is of course utter craziness: Prices in the Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index are adjusted for the mix of models and mileage, and for seasonal factors. Typically, non-adjusted used vehicle prices drop in the second half of the year. And in December, the non-adjusted average declined by 1.1% from November and was up by 43.4% year-over-year, according to Manheim. The chart below is from the Q4 presentation by Cox Automotive (which owns Manheim) on Friday January 7. It shows the percentage changes of non-adjusted prices of 3-year-old models per year. In each year, prices declined in the second half – except in 2021 (red line at the top), when prices of 3-year-old vehicles exploded until week 46. The chart also shows the peculiar price movements in 2020 of 3-year-old vehicles (purple line, second from the top), with prices falling through week 18 (lockdowns) then surging to set new records. But even in 2020, on this non-adjusted basis, prices declined in the second half (click on the chart to enlarge): The average daily sales conversion rate at the Manheim auctions declined in December to 53%, “close to normal for the time of year,” and compares to a conversion rate of 52% in December 2019, according to Manheim. “This indicates that the month saw balance between buyers and sellers, and as a result most vehicles showed price depreciation,” it said. Used vehicle retail sales in December – sales on dealer lots – at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 20.4 million vehicles, flat for the month, fell 5.5% from December 2020. The year-over-year decline in sales is not due to lack of inventory for sale. That’s for sure. There was suddenly plenty of supply. Supply of used vehicles on dealer lots at the end of December jumped to 54 days’ supply at the December rate of sales: 10 days, or 23% above the average of 44 days. It was the second month in a row with above-average retail supply; in November, supply had jumped to 49 days, from 39 days in October. Supply at wholesale auctions at the end of December jumped to 33 days, also 10 days above the average of 23 days. This too was the second month in a row with above average supply: In November, wholesale supply had jumped to 29 days, from 18 days in October.

 After the Shortage, a Glut? Semiconductor Sales Hit Record for 7th Month. Hundreds of Billions in New Investments Planned by Wolf Richter -- Despite the shortages of certain types of semiconductors, overall sales by chipmakers around the world hit a new record of $49.7 billion in November (three month moving average), the seventh record in a row, up 24% from a year ago, and up 35% from two years ago, according to data from the World Semiconductor Trade Statistics. With one month left, the industry has already set a new annual record.The 23% plunge in chip sales from October 2018 through April 2019, marked in the chart below, was in part due to the collapse in demand for the specialized chips for crypto mining rigs, whose sales had collapsed after crypto prices had collapsed, with Bitcoin down by 85% from $20,000 in December 2017 to $3,200 by December 2018. But now crypto mining rigs are in high demand, along with all types of other semiconductors, and some semiconductors are in short supply, despite booming production.The data and chart, being expressed in dollars, also shows the impact of price changes of semiconductors that have been rising since October 2020. One of the component in the collapse of sales from October 2018 through April 2019 was a downturn in semiconductor prices. The US semiconductor industry – companies such as Intel, TI, NVIDIA, etc. – still had 47% of the global market share in 2020, according to the Semiconductor Industry Association’s 2021 industry report, but they’re manufacturing part of their products outside the US, and some of their chips are manufactured by contract manufacturers in other countries.In terms of semiconductors manufactured in the Americas by all companies, including companies like Samsung with plants in the US: Sales jumped by 28.7% year-over-year in November (three-month moving average) to $11.5 billion. This was the highest year-over-year growth rate of any geographic region. Automakers and heavy equipment makers have been hit hard by shortages of some specific chips, and with just one component missing, the vehicle cannot be sold. Automakers have been discussing the prospects of shortages in 2022. Shortages are continuing, and there is no consensus, but it seems that at least some problems will persist possibly into 2023. Many other issues already improved in late 2021 and are expected to further improve in 2022. The industry is heavily investing in production facilities, including in the US. But it takes years to build and equip these multi-billion-dollar manufacturing plants, and those plants won’t come online soon enough. There is a global drive underway to increase production. For China, semiconductors have become a national priority. By the end of this year, construction on 30 new plants will have started, according to industry organization SEMI in June. And the amounts are huge. In September it estimated that $100 billion will be invested globally this year just for equipment for front-end fabs, where the silicon wafers are processed, up from a record $90 billion last year. Given this flood of planned investment in new capacity, research group IDC is now penciling in the potential for overcapacity in 2023, according to the Nikkei. The semiconductor industry is cyclical, as the chart above shows, with demand suddenly plunging, and prices plunging, and huge investment projects being put on the back-burner. And suddenly when demand picks up, and then suddenly skyrockets, supply is constrained, prices spike, and it’s off to the races again.But the shortages that began appearing in late 2020 are a different ball of wax than the regular supply constraints; and now the investment plans in reaction to those shortages are a different ball of wax as well, far bigger than ever before.And someday, that boom in demand for crypto mining rigs is going to hit the skids again, or other demand falls off, such as from data centers. And then it’s back to the old cyclicality, with overcapacity and a glut of semiconductors waiting at the other end, once again. But for now, that’s just wishful thinking for automakers that cannot get all the components needed to put their cars together.

December real retail sales tank; industrial production also declines; consumer slowdown seems nearly certain Two days ago, in connection with consumer inflation, I reiterated that “we certainly are at a point where a sharp deceleration beginning with the consumer sector of the economy is more likely than not.”I didn’t expect to have it show up so soon! Retail sales, one of my favorite “real” economic indicators, took a nosedive in the month of December, declining -1.9% for the month even before inflation. After inflation, “real” retail sales declined -2.4%. Ouch!Thus real retail sales are down -5.1% from their April peak: Recall that real retail sales rose 1.8% in October. So I suspect a large part of the decline is that, fearing shortages on the shelves at Christmastime, many consumers advanced their purchases of Christmas gifts by several months. Still, the net decline since September has been -2.2%Nevertheless they remain 9.2% higher than one year ago. In the past 70+ years before the pandemic hit, real retail sales were only higher YoY briefly in the early 1980s, as well as for about 16 months during the 1940s, 50s, and 60s.Next, let’s turn to employment, because real retail sales are also a good short leading indicator for jobs.As I have written many times over the past 10+ years, real retail sales YoY/2 has a good record of leading jobs YoY with a lead time of about 3 to 6 months. That’s because demand for goods and services leads for the need to hire employees to fill that demand. The exceptions have been right after the 2001 and 2008 recessions, when it took jobs longer to catch up, as shown in the graph below, which takes us up to February 2020:Now here is the same graph since just before the pandemic hit:Note the two have been right in line for over half a year. I have written for the past several months that this “argues that we can expect jobs reports in the next few months to average out about even with those from one year ago, which averaged about 500,000 per month.” Although the last two jobs reports started out poor, November followed the pattern of upward revisions, and I expect more such revisions when next month’s jobs report is released. But comparisons will be very difficult YoY beginning in March, which means - to be consistent - that a big slowing of employment growth seems likely by about summer this year.Finally, real retail sales per capita is one of my long leading indicators. Here’s what it looks like for the past 30 years:With a -5.3% decline since April, this is a decidedly negative signal. Frankly, it’s recessionary looking out to midyear and beyond. Since it is only one indicator among the array, it isn’t a big concern yet. But it absolutely adds to the evidence that a big consumer slowdown as we go forward this year looks likely.—Before I go, let’s also briefly take a peek at industrial production, which also declined, by -0.1%, this morning. Manufacturing production declined -0.3%. Additionally, November was revised downward for both total and manufacturing production. Here’s the current view:Both are still higher than they were just before the pandemic. While this isn’t good news, it is within the range of noise, but on the other hand, it is one more bit of evidence for a slowing expansion.

Industrial Production Decreased 0.1 Percent in December - From the Fed: Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization - Industrial production declined 0.1 percent in December. Losses of 0.3 percent for manufacturing and 1.5 percent for utilities were mostly offset by a gain of 2.0 percent for mining. For the fourth quarter as a whole, total industrial production rose at an annual rate of 4.0 percent. At 101.9 percent of its 2017 average, total industrial production in December was 3.7 percent higher than it was at the end of 2020 and 0.6 percent above its pre-pandemic (February 2020) reading. Capacity utilization for the industrial sector edged down 0.1 percentage point in December to 76.5 percent, a rate that is 3.1 percentage points below its long-run (1972–2020) average. This graph shows Capacity Utilization. This series is up from the record low set in April 2020, and above the level in February 2020 (pre-pandemic).Capacity utilization at 76.5% is 3.1% below the average from 1972 to 2020. This was well below consensus expectations. The second graph shows industrial production since 1967.Industrial production decreased in December to 101.9. This is above the February 2020 level.The change in industrial production was below consensus expectations.

U.S. manufacturing output unexpectedly falls in December on autos (Reuters) - Production at U.S. factories unexpectedly fell in December, pulled down by a decline in output at motor vehicle plants amid an ongoing global semiconductor shortage.Manufacturing output dropped 0.3% last month after increasing 0.6% in November, the Federal Reserve said on Friday. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast factory production rising 0.5%. Output increased 3.5% compared to December 2020.Manufacturing, which accounts for 11.9% of the U.S. economy, remains supported by lean inventories at businesses as demand for goods remains strong. But COVID-19 and the recovery from the pandemic have overstretched supply chains, igniting inflation.Manufacturing production increased at a 4.9% annualized rate in the fourth quarter after rising at a 4.0% rate in the July-September quarter.Production at auto plants dropped 1.3% last month after rising 1.7% in November. Motor vehicle output is about 6% below its year-earlier level.Last month's decline in manufacturing output combined with a 1.5% decline in utilities to push industrial production down 0.1%. That followed a 0.7% gain in November. Utilities were undercut by unseasonably warm weather in December, which lessened demand for heating.Mining production rose 2.0%. Industrial production grew at a 4.0% rate in the fourth quarter. That followed a 3.5% pace of increase in the third quarter.Capacity utilization for the manufacturing sector, a measure of how fully firms are using their resources, decreased 0.2 percentage point to 77.0% in December. Overall capacity use for the industrial sector slipped 0.1 percentage point to 76.5% last month. It is 3.1 percentage points below its 1972-2020 average. Officials at the Fed tend to look at capacity use measures for signals of how much "slack" remains in the economy — how far growth has room to run before it becomes inflationary.

Producer prices soared by 9.7% in December, biggest gain on record -Wholesale prices rose at the fastest pace on record in December, the latest evidence that inflationary pressures are continuing to plague the U.S. economy. The Labor Department said Thursday that its producer price index, which measures inflation at the wholesale level before it reaches consumers, surged 9.7% in December from the year-ago period. It marked the highest figure on record since the government began tracking the data in 2010. Still, there are some signs that inflation could be decelerating: On a monthly basis, prices rose just 0.2% in December following a revised gain of 1% in November. Economists surveyed by Refinitiv expected producer inflation to rise by 9.8% on an annual basis and 0.4% from the previous month. Food prices declined 0.6% in December after climbing 1.2% in November, while energy prices dropped 3.3%, following a 2% gain the previous month. Greg Fisher scans inventory in Wheel Pros' supply warehouse on Oct. 27, 2021, in Greenwood Village, Colorado. (Kevin J. Beaty/Colorado Public Radio via AP / AP Newsroom) Core inflation at the wholesale level, which excludes the more volatile measurements of food and energy, increased 0.4% in December, down from a 0.8% jump in November. Over the past 12 months, core prices were up 6.9%. The surge in wholesale prices comes on the heels of a separate Labor Department report released a day earlier that showed consumer prices climbed 7% in December from the previous year, the biggest increase since June 1982, when inflation hit 7.1%. Consumers are paying more for everyday necessities, including groceries, gasoline and cars. The eye-popping reading – which marked the seventh consecutive month the gauge has been above 5% – will likely amp up pressure on the Federal Reserve to begin hiking interest rates as soon as March in order to combat the recent price surge. Hiking interest rates tends to create higher rates on consumers and business loans, which slows the economy by forcing them to cut back on spending.

Shipping Expenses in the US Go Through the Roof - Shippers in the US – from manufacturers to mom-and-pop online retailers – have been wailing about it all year in 2021, and it got worse as the year went on: Surging shipping costs. Freight companies, facing numerous obstacles, jacked up prices amid strong demand. And the result is a historic spike in the amount that shippers paid to transportation companies.The total these shippers spent in December on shipping goods to their customers in the US spiked by 43.6% from December 2020 and by 62.3% from December 2019, according to the Cass Freight Index for Expenditures, released by Cass Information Systems.The index is a combination of shipment volume (more on that in a moment) and freight rates. It’s centered on trucking, with truckload shipments representing over half of the dollar amounts, rail in second place, less-than-truckload shipments in third place, followed by parcel services and others. The freight rates embedded in the index spiked by 33% in December 2021 from December 2020 and by 41% from December 2019.Shippers struggled all year with capacity constraints and delays and chaos in the transportation sector, with containers stranded somewhere, with chassis shortages at ports, with rail yards and ports backed up. Trucking companies complained about driver shortages. Warehouse operations were hampered by staffing shortages that ended up sidelining trailers and containers. Railroads ran into their own bottlenecks at rail yards; and, after having laid off 33% of their workers in six years, they complained about labor shortages. Chaos kept the system from operating efficiently, hampered throughput, and restrained shipment volume.In December, the Cass Freight Index for Shipments rose by 7.7% from December 2020, and by 14.8% from December 2019, to a new record for December, when the shipping business normally slows down due to the holidays. But there was no slowdown in December 2021.Note the seasonal low points in January and the distortions during the pandemic. Much of the year 2018 set records that still stand as companies were loading up on inventories ahead of the tariffs – but at the time, the transportation system wasn’t bogged down in the type of chaos that is in the system now.The average national spot rate for van-type trailers has been rising for the past 12 months and in June reached $2.99 a mile, up 22% year-over-year, according to DAT Freight & Analysis. Regionally, the average rate ranged from $2.72 in the Northeast to $3.41 in the West.The average national spot rate for flatbed trailers (heavy equipment, construction materials, etc.) jumped by 24% year-over-year to $3.07 per mile, but has flattened out since last summer, with the average rate having peaked in June at $3.15 per mile..At the end of December, the average price of diesel at the pump was $3.61 per gallon, up by nearly $1 (+37%) from a year earlier. But it still remains below the $4 range that prevailed in 2012 through 2014.WTI crude oil traded above $80 a barrel back in October, but by mid-December, WTI had dropped back to the $65 range. This multi-week decline triggered the dip in diesel prices in November and December that you can see in the chart below. But WTI has risen since then, ended December at $75, and now is at $82 a barrel. And diesel prices started ticking up again. So there is yet something to look forward to:

United cuts flights as about 3,000 workers call out sick from Covid --United Airlines is trimming its schedule to address a surge in sick calls among employees, CEO Scott Kirby told employees.U.S. airlines canceled thousands of flights over the year-end holidays through early this year due to Covid infections among crews and a series of winter storms. United first cut some flights before Christmas.JetBlue Airways was the first carrier to cut back its January schedule because of a surge in infection rates among crews, which was later followed by Alaska Airlines. American Airlines said it would do the same this week as Covid rates climbed among regional carriers.The adjustments are the latest move by an airline to cope with the rapid spread of the omicron variant.Kirby said in a memo published on the company's website Monday that United is "reducing our near-term schedules to make sure we have the staffing and resources to take care of customers." A spokeswoman on Tuesday declined to say how many flights the carrier is canceling. United has about 3,000 workers who are currently positive for Covid, Kirby said in the staff memo. That is about 4% of its U.S. workforce."Just as an example, in one day alone at Newark [New Jersey], nearly one-third of our workforce called out sick," Kirby said. He said that none of the carrier's vaccinated employees, which make up more than 96% of its staff, are hospitalized and that it hasn't had a Covid-related death among inoculated employees in eight weeks.

 Omicron disrupts essential services as workers call out sick: 'Most people are going to get Covid' - Acting Food and Drug Administration Commissioner Dr. Janet Woodcock gave U.S. lawmakers an ominous warning this week: The nation needs to ensure police, hospital and transportation services don't break down as the unprecedented wave of omicron infections across the country forces people to call out sick. "It's hard to process what's actually happening right now, which is most people are going to get Covid," Woodcock testified before the Senate health committee on Tuesday. "What we need to do is make sure the hospitals can still function, transportation, other essential services are not disrupted while this happens." Much like last winter when public officials were trying to contain the spread of Covid, public services and businesses across the U.S. are cutting back and limiting hours, some even temporarily shutting down. This year, however, so many workers are out sick with the virus, it's disrupting services that public officials are otherwise trying to keep open. From New York to Los Angeles, emergency services are struggling to staff enough police, nurses, EMTs and firefighters as more and more workers call out with Covid. Public transit systems in New York and Chicago are suspending or have disrupted some services, airlines are cutting back flights, and public officials have been forced to quarantine at home as the highly contagious omicron variant pierces through vaccine protection and sends large swaths of mostly unvaccinated people to the hospital. The U.S. reported a pandemic record of almost 1.5 million new Covid infections on Monday with an average of about 750,000 new infections every day over the last week, according to CNBC analysis of data compiled by Johns Hopkins University. That compares with a seven-day average of about 252,000 new cases a day a year ago. Hospitalizations are also higher than last winter's peak — before the widespread distribution of vaccines — and continue to rise. More than 152,000 people in the U.S. were hospitalized with Covid as of Wednesday, up 18% over the last week, according to data tracked by the Department of Health and Human Services.

Missing Workers by Age Group-- In November, Goldman Sachs economists put out a research note on the labor force participation rate: Why Isn’t Labor Force Participation Recovering? Here are few excerpts from the note: While the unemployment rate continues to fall quickly, labor force participation has made no progress since August 2020. ... Most of the 5.0mn persons who have exited the labor force since the start of the pandemic are over age 55 (3.4mn), largely reflecting early (1.5mn) and natural (1mn) retirements that likely won’t reverse. The outlook for prime-age persons who have exited the labor force (1.7mn) is more positive, since very few are discouraged and most still view their exits as temporary.First, there are two important monthly surveys from the BLS. The participation rate (and unemployment rate) comes from the Current Population Survey (CPS: commonly called the household survey), a monthly survey of about 60,000 households. The jobs number comes from Current Employment Statistics (CES: payroll survey), a sample of approximately 634,000 business establishments nationwide. These are very different surveys: the CPS gives the total number of employed (and unemployed including the alternative measures), and the CES gives the total number of positions (excluding some categories like the self-employed, and a person working two jobs counts as two positions).Currently the payroll survey shows there are 3.6 million fewer jobs than in February 2020 (pre-pandemic). The household survey shows there are 2.9 million fewer people employed than in February 2020. Note: The 5 million number for the labor force, probably assumes some normal labor force growth; however,overall population growth has been dismal over the last 2 years (little immigration and large number of deaths). I'm not confident in Goldman's 5-million-person estimate.Here is a graph of the number of missing people by age group (from the CPS household survey). This data is comparing December 2021 to December 2019, using Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA) data (I compared to December 2019 to minimize the seasonal impact when using NSA data). Positive numbers are missing workers. Almost all of the missing employed workers - by this method - are in the 25 to 29, 45 to 49, and in the 55 to 59 age groups. Note: this is over a 2-year period, and there have been some demographic shifts between cohorts. This data would suggest most of the missing workers are prime age or took early retirement (the missing workers in their '50s).

Calls for Paid Leave Grow as Workers Face ‘Vicious Cycle’: Their Jobs or Covid Safety --As U.S. workers ill with Covid-19 during the Omicron surge face the stark choice of staying home without pay at the risk of losing their jobs or reporting to work and possibly infecting colleagues and customers, progressives on Monday renewed calls for the implementation of paid sick leave at the national level.“In the midst of a horrific pandemic, two-thirds of low-wage workers still lack access to paid sick leave. That is barbaric,” Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) tweeted.“We must guarantee that all workers have a right to paid sick leave,” he added.According to a report published Monday by Popular Information and the advocacy group More Perfect Union, workers at Red Lobster, the seafood restaurant chain owned by the private equity firm Golden Gate Capital, are being forced to report for work under threat of reprimands that could lead to termination.The report states that:James Swartz worked as a bartender at a Pennsylvania Red Lobster for a year-and-a-half starting in December 2019. He was paid $3.50 per hour, plus tips. In an interview, Swartz said when he developed Covid symptoms and told management he was not coming in for his weekend shifts, he was subjected to “threats.” Red Lobster management told Swartz that he “needed to come in for work” and if he didn’t show up or find another way to cover the shift he would “get written up.”Another Red Lobster employee who did not want to be identified for fear of retribution told The Columbus Dispatch that “we don’t have sick days and yes, I go into work when I’m sick. If we call off, we get written up.”The worker said they would be fired after four write-ups.“It’s a vicious cycle,” Daniel Schneider, professor of public policy at the Harvard Kennedy School of Government, told the Associated Press. “As staffing gets depleted because people are out sick, that means that those that are on the job have more to do and are even more reluctant to call in sick when they in turn get sick.”One New Mexico worker, who also did not want to be identified, told the APthat they took time off to get tested for Covid-19 after experiencing symptoms of the illness. “I thought I was doing the right thing by protecting my co-workers,” the worker—who lost $160 per day off—said. “Now I wish I just would’ve gone to work and not said anything.”

Some cruise passengers and staff infected with COVID-19 say they were served rotten food and left without water for hours: report -Contracting COVID-19 on holiday and having to isolate instead of enjoying yourself is a disappointing enough experience. But, The Washington Post reported, some quarantined cruise staff and passengers aboard the Norwegian Getaway and Royal Caribbean ships, said their situation grew even worse when they were served rotten or otherwise inadequate food.Others said they were left without drinking water for hours.Frank Rebelo, 54, a passenger on the Norwegian Getaway, told the outlet that after contracting COVID-19, he was forced to isolate in his room and could only order food from the room-service menu.They were like, 'We're going to give you the minimum you need to survive,'" Rebelo said. Norwegian Getaway and Royal Caribbean did not immediately respond to Insider's request for comment. A Royal Caribbean spokesperson told The Washington Post that passengers were provided with free bottled water. Cases onboard cruise ships have been rising in recent weeks. As of Friday, 91 US cruise ships at sea had confirmed or suspected COVID-19 cases on board, the Centers for Disease Control and Preventionsaid.An unidentified crew member aboard the Royal Caribbean's Odyssey of the Seas told The Post she found her lunch outside her room one day during her isolation. "One night my dinner was like just a box of rice. Nothing else. Not even a roll or a vegetable," she said. "Just rice. I was like, cool, glad I have a box of Pop Tarts in my room."Another former staff member on Oasis, Ovation and Harmony of the Seas said that during his quarantine period he was served inedible food, including a rotting orange. Another meal consisted of a small scoop of rice, a hard-boiled egg, and a meager portion of corned-beef hash, he told the outlet.

 Walmart hit with proposed class action over female drivers' uniforms -Walmart’s female truck drivers must either go to work wearing company-provided men’s pants, or pay to buy and launder their own uniform-compliant garments, according to a new lawsuit filed in federal court in Alabama.The Equal Employment Opportunity Commission gave Alabama driver Diana Webb approval to file the proposed class action claiming sex discrimination against similarly situated female Walmart drivers, after the agency said it would not proceed further with its investigation.“I believe Walmart is discriminating against female truck drivers, and possibly other female employees who are required to wear uniforms,” Webb wrote in her Oct. 5 complaint to the EEOC. “Walmart is providing and cleaning uniform bottoms for the men, while the women are expected to either wear men’s bottoms, or purchase and clean women’s bottoms on their own.”Webb has worked for Walmart as a driver since July 20, 2020, the lawsuit states.According to the complaint, drivers on the job who fail to wear clothing authorized by the company’s uniform policy can be fired right away. Walmart does provide its drivers with an entire uniform that includes pants and shirts, the suit states; however, the lawsuit says male pants are the only type of bottoms offered to drivers, regardless of their gender.“For female drivers, it is impossible to wear the men’s pants provided by Walmart specifically made to fit only male employees due to anatomical differences between the sexes,” the complaint states. “Female drivers are therefore required to either suffer discomfort, or purchase and launder their own pants, out of their own pocket, with no option for reimbursement, in order to fulfill Walmart’s employment requirements."Webb also alleges that she requested that Walmart reimburse her for her out-of-pocket expenses to purchase multiple pairs of female pants and shorts to wear for work. Supervisors, she alleges, denied the request. Walmart will not launder any pants worn by female drivers that the company didn't provide, Webb adds, and therefore females, and not males, must incur the expense of washing their own uniform pants.

States turning to National Guard for COVID-19 help as omicron surges - Several states are turning to their National Guards for help as they see spikes in demand for coronavirus testing and other pandemic needs during the omicron surge. Governors have been deploying their guards since the pandemic began to help with a variety of needs. But over the past year, the spread of the delta and omicron variants has spurred the need for backup personnel.On Jan. 3, Ohio Gov. Mike DeWine (R) announced that about 300 members of his state’s National Guard will support state testing efforts in nine new cities. A week earlier he had mobilized an additional 1,250 members to support hospitals that critically needed the help.Overall, over 2,300 members of the state’s National Guard are working with Ohio’s health care systems Over the past week, several other states, including Minnesota and Rhode Island, also announced they would mobilize the National Guard to support testing capacity.California Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) on Friday announced he’s mobilizing 200 members of the California National Guard to support testing facilities amid the omicron surge. The deployments come as the U.S. sees a rapid spike in COVID-19 infections largely fueled by the omicron variant, which was first detected in South Africa on Nov. 14.The first confirmed case of omicron was identified in the U.S. on Dec. 1, and the spread of infections that has ensued has placed a new strain on testing and hospital capacity.Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan (D) declared a state of emergency on Tuesday and mobilized as many as 1,000 National Guard soldiers and airmen to support the state for COVID-19 testing, to help local hospitals and to assist with patient transport. “The truth is that the next four to six weeks will be the most challenging of the entire pandemic,” Hogan said at the time. “All of the emergency actions we are taking today are to keep our hospitals from overflowing, to keep our kids in school, and to keep Maryland open for business, and we will continue to take whatever actions are necessary in the very difficult days and weeks ahead.” In some states, troops are being deployed just as coronavirus-related missions were set to wind down.Hawaii in mid-December was just about to mark the end of the Hawaii National Guard Joint Task Force that was supporting the state’s COVID-19 response but reversed the decision amid an increase in infections sparked by the omicron variant.And on Jan. 3, the Oregon Air National Guard announced the end to a mission that began in August to support hospitals amid a COVID-19 surge, but said a small contingent of staff would continue the mission through the end of February. Days later, Gov. Kate Brown (D) announced that she will be mobilizing up to 500 Guard members to support health care workers amid the omicron surge. An initial 125 troops will be deployed this week. As governors mobilize their National Guard members, the Department of Defense is separately aiding states amid the surge. President Biden announced last month that he instructed the Pentagon to mobilize an additional 1,000 active-duty service members to help at medical facilities. Thus far, it has sent active-duty medical personnel to several states over the past month specifically to alleviate hospitals.

State of emergency declared in Virginia after record COVID-19 surge -Gov. Ralph Northam (D) declared a limited state of emergency for Virginia on Monday to alleviate pressure on hospitals after the state has counted record COVID-19 cases and hospitalizations in recent days. The governor announced the emergency order that aims to boost hospital capacity and support “exhausted” health care workers after Virginia counted its highest daily COVID-19 hospital admissions on Friday. The order designed to provide flexibility to strained hospitals and staff is set to last 30 days because of modeling predicting a peak of cases “in the next few weeks” following the omicron variant surge, the announcement said. “It has been a roller coaster and we are not built for this kind of uncertainty for this long,” Northamsaid during a press briefing. “It has been hard on everyone.”The order waives license requirements for hospitals to increase their bed capacity, permits out-of-state licensed providers to provide care in Virginia, grants physician assistants with at least two years experience to provide care without written agreements and gives some liability protections to physicians Northam is only in office for a few more days, as Gov.-elect Glenn Youngkin (R), who has the option of rescinding the order, prepares to be inaugurated on Saturday, although Northam anticipates Youngkin’s support.“The Governor has spoken to the Governor-elect, and is hopeful this order will remain in place for 30 days or until no longer necessary,” Northam spokesperson Alena Yarmosky said in an email. While the state points to the lowest case and death rates per capita, Virginia hospitals are still struggling with more than 3,500 COVID-19 patients statewide and rising flu and respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) patients. Most of those hospitalized for COVID-19 are unvaccinated, the governor said.

New Jersey reinstates public health emergency as omicron surge overwhelms hospitals -New Jersey Gov. Phil Murphy reinstated a public health emergency Tuesday as hospitals struggle to keep up with an influx of patients as Covid cases soar amid an ongoing shortage of health-care workers.The latest surge is driven by the rise of the fast-spreading omicron variant, which the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has said accounts for about 95% of sequenced of Covid-19 cases in the U.S. Though vaccines, and particularly booster doses, offer statistical protection against severe disease and death, experts say the sheer volume of cases is overwhelming hospitals.Murphy said the state is seeing nearly 35,000 new Covid cases daily and in the past two weeks more than 10,000 residents have been hospitalized.The re-declaration allows the governor to exercise certain emergency powers, including mask mandates in schools. Murphy said the renewed emergency declaration "won't even have any new impact at all" on the day-to-day lives of local residents."This is what this does not mean," he said. "It does not mean any new universal mandates or passports. It does not mean lockdowns. It does not mean any business restrictions or gathering limits."Half of the hospital beds at Newark's University Hospital are filled with patients diagnosed with Covid-19, some of whom were admitted for something else but tested positive afterward, hospital president Dr. Shereef Elnahal said in an interview on CNBC's "Squawk Box" on Wednesday.But Elnahal said the Covid infection itself is not his biggest worry."I'm actually more worried about a health-care problem rather than a Covid-19 problem," Elnahal told CNBC's Becky Quick. "Right now, we're seeing our workforce demoralized. There isn't a light at the end of the tunnel that I can paint now as I did in the spring of 2020."He said the industry is losing talented clinicians between the ages of 45 and 60, "often the most energetic and knowledgeable folks in the hospital." That's a problem that may actually outlast omicron, "which seems to have already plateaued at least in cases in the New York metro area." Elnahal said almost 10% of his hospital's staff are out with Covid, pushing the hospital closer to a staffing crisis with "uncomfortable" ratios of workers to patients.

 How SCOTUS ruling on Biden COVID vaccine mandate may affect NY court cases -The US Supreme Court ruling that shot down President Biden’s vaccine-or-test mandate for businesses won’t be binding on challenges to similar state and city rules — but may help persuade local judges to rule the same way, anti-mandate lawyers said Thursday.Attorney James Mermigis of Syosset — who’s been dubbed the “Anti-Shutdown Lawyer” — hailed the high court’s 6-3 decision to block enforcement of an Occupational Safety and Health Administration order, which he said would have amounted to an “unprecedented” expansion of the agency’s authority.But, Mermigis said, “mayors and governors have police powers, meaning they could make these kinds of orders because they can say they are protecting the public and they are doing it for the well-being of the citizens.”Mermigis, who recently filed a suit to add a religious exemption to Gov. Kathy Hochul’s vaccination requirement for health care workers, called the Supreme Court ruling “a little persuasive” because it “knocked down a vaccine mandate.”“But I don’t find any solace in this decision for the state of New York because our mandates are much more restrictive than this OSHA mandate,” he said.Staten Island lawyer Mark Fonte — whose firm, Fonte and Gelormino, has suits pending against former Mayor Bill de Blasio’s vaccine mandates for school workers and businesses — said he wasn’t sure the ruling “will have a positive impact” on those cases.But he said he planned to use it to “argue that if an agency’s powers are expanded, there has to be a limit to that.”“OSHA’s powers were expanded to include a vaccine mandate and the court said: You expanded it too much, that is not what OSHA was designed to do,” he said.

New York City School Operations Crumble Under Omicron’s Weight - New York City school officials fought to keep schools open through a record-breaking surge of Omicron cases. Now, students, parents and teachers are grappling with the consequences.Roughly 300,000 students missed class on average this past week in the nation’s largest school district, which serves 1 million. For others, going to class in-person consisted of little actual learning as students were herded into auditoriums with teachers in short supply. Students stuck at home had no virtual option, and parents had to decide whether to send their children in or risk them falling further behind after years of disrupted, pandemic education.The situation in New York stands in contrast to Chicago, where the teachers' union has clashed with the city in a public face-off that closed schools for multiple days after winter break. Both illustrate the dire state of education in the U.S. that has reopened old debates and infuriated teachers, parents and officials.New York Mayor Eric Adams has maintained that schools need to be open, and that warmth, food and supervision are invaluable for the city’s low-income or homeless students. “Schools play a role of safety and stability for our children,” Adams said Monday at Concourse Village in the Bronx.Omicron has exploded citywide in schools. There were more than 8,000 student and 1,400 staff cases reported as of Friday evening, according to the city’s Department of Education. Attendance the first week back hovered around 70%. On Friday, when the city was covered in snow, less than half of the student body showed up.With infections so high, schools have struggled to keep operations running smoothly. Teachers are reluctant to teach new material to vacant classrooms. When teachers call in sick, substitute teachers are in short supply. To cope, some schools moved teacher-less students to auditoriums or gyms.“We don’t really learn anything anymore,” said Alan Sun, a sophomore at the Bronx High School of Science, one of the city’s specialized high schools. “There are COVID cases left and right, it’s just a mess.”Sun l ooked at his phone and chatted with friends in the auditorium for two 40-minute periods Friday. He was moved to the gym when the auditorium filled up.

Chicago schools closed for fourth consecutive day - Chicago Public Schools closed for a fourth consecutive day on Monday as negotiations continue between the district and teachers union regarding COVID-19 safety protocols. Chicago Mayor Lori Lightfoot (D) announced on Sunday evening that classes would be canceled again on Monday “Out of fairness and consideration for parents who need to prepare.” The mayor said that despite negotiations running through the day “there has not been sufficient progress for us to predict a return to class tomorrow.” “We will continue to negotiate through the night and will provide an update if we have made substantial progress,” Lightfoot wrote on Twitter. The standoff between Chicago Public Schools and the Chicago Teachers Union began on Wednesday, when the union told teachers not to report to work in-person as part of a push to transition instruction to remote learning due to a surge in COVID-19 cases. The district, however, opted to cancel classes instead of moving to virtual instruction. Classrooms were shuttered on Wednesday, Thursday and Friday of last week, affecting roughly 350,000 students. The Chicago Teachers Union on Saturday proposed making instruction remote starting Wednesday until Jan. 18 if officials enact more COVID-19 safety protocols, but Lightfoot rejected the plan, according to the Chicago Tribune. Lightfoot on Sunday called theteachers union’s walkout “illegal,”and said they “abandoned kids and their families.” Asked if students will return to the classroom this week, Lightfoot on Sunday said “I'm doing everything I can to make sure that happens.” She said her team was “working diligently every single day” during negotiations to strike a deal between the two parties.

Chicago Teacher's Union agrees to reopen city schools Wednesday - The Chicago Teachers Union (CTU) on Monday agreed to accept a deal that will allow schools to reopen on Wednesday after four days of cancellations over instructors refusing to teach in-person amid COVID-19 spikes following the holidays. Last week, the union staged a walkout in support of the union's call for a temporary return to virtual learning due to high infection rates and what they say are a lack of mitigation measures. On Sunday, Chicago Mayor Lori Lightfoot (D) condemned the walkout as "illegal" and accused teachers of abandoning students and parents. The Chicago Tribune reported that the CTU's House of Delegates approved a proposal late Monday to return to in-person learning and suspend a work action in which teachers refused to go to the classroom. The proposal also sets parameters for individual schools to return to remote learning based on the rate of staff absences; the number of students in isolation or quarantine; and also whether the rate of transmission is high at the time. During a press conference late on Monday, Lightfoot dismissed the notion of winners of losers in the disagreement between the city and the teacher's union. “This most recent fight, if you want to call it that, has been a fight for access to in-person learning, learning that is far superior to the remote programming our students had to endure for far too long last year," she said, according to the Tribune. \ Earlier on Monday, the CTU said in a statement, "The Union wants to reassure the parents and guardians of Chicago that we will remain at the bargaining table until we reach an agreement that will return us all to in-person learning safely and equitably." This dispute occurred as new COVID-19 cases across the U.S. have surged due to the highly-transmissible omicron variant. The White House has signaled its commitment to keeping schools open, pushing a “test-to-stay” policy for students.

62K students, school staff in Los Angeles test positive for COVID-19 - Roughly 62,000 students and staff in the Los Angeles Unified School District have tested positive for COVID-19 ahead of the district's return to school on Tuesday.As CNN reported, 414,000 test results have been recorded in the district, the nation's second largest. Of those tests, roughly 15 percent have tested positive.This positivity rate is significantly below Los Angeles' overall positivity rate which is currently at 22 percent."We're all systems go," school district spokesperson Shannon Haber told CNN. According to Haber, about 4,000 credentialed staff members are prepared to jump in to teach if needed. All students in the district are required to provide a negative COVID-19 test before returning to school this week.

A lawmaker in Indiana walked back comments saying teachers should be 'impartial' when teaching students about Nazism --An Indiana state senator walked back comments he made saying teachers should be "impartial" when teaching about Nazism.State Sen. Scott Baldwin was criticized for the comments he made during a committee hearing on Wednesday about a proposed bill that would limit how schools can discuss concepts like race. The billis part of a wave of legislation proposed by conservative lawmakers largely in response to concerns over critical race theory.During the hearing, Matt Bockenfeld, a history and ethnic studies teacher, testified in opposition to the bill. He said regardless of the bill's intent it would have a "chilling effect" on classrooms and would require teachers to be neutral on every topic."Of course, we're neutral on political issues of the day," Bockenfeld said. "We don't stand up and say who we voted for or anything like that. But we're not neutral on Nazism. We take a stand in the classroom against it, and it matters that we do."Baldwin, a Republican, said he did not agree that teachers should be anything but neutral."I'm not discrediting, as a person, Marxism, Nazism, fascism," he said. "I have no problem with the education system providing instruction on the existence of those isms. I believe that we've gone too far when we take a position on those isms.""We need to be impartial," he continued. "We need to be the purveyors of reason. We just provide the facts. The kids formulate their own viewpoints."

ACT/SAT Test Soon To Be Optional at Iowa Public Universities - It may be nearly 30 years ago, but I can still remember the stress involved with taking my ACT exam. test was a large part of what colleges looked at before granting you admission to their school. I remember studying for weeks in my room. I ended up scoring a 22, a score good enough to get into the colleges I was looking at. But now, the Iowa Board of Regents is about to do away with the student requirement of taking the ACT or SAT exam. The Cedar Rapids Gazette reports that the State Board of Regents will soon permanently end the ACT and SAT mandate when it comes to Iowa's public universities, ending the 63-year-old requirement. The board will take up the issue at a meeting today. The move would become permanent after the board waived temporarily waived the testing requirement in August of 2020 due to the stresses of the ongoing COVID pandemic. The proposal will still retain ACT and SAT scores as one of three factors that freshman applicants need to receive automatic admission into the University of Iowa, Iowa State, and UNI according to the Gazette. The other two are grade point average and courses taken in core subjects. If you decide NOT to take one of the entrance exams, the Gazette reports that an individual review will be done by an admissions team to determine your entrance into the school. So basically, the exams will be optional. The decision by the regents comes after data showed that the better indicator of collegiate success wasn't the ACT or SAT score. Grade point average was the largest factor in whether a student graduated in four years or not.

Pennsylvania moves forward with a vicious attack on the public university system as enrollment collapses --As the spring semester is about to start for students in the Pennsylvania State System of Higher Education (PASSHE), the system administration’s devastating restructuring plan, approved on July 14 of last year, has begun in full force. The plan entails the axing of staff, faculty and educational programs. The so-called “consolidation” plan has merged six universities into two schools: California, Clarion and Edinboro, on the one hand, and Bloomsburg, Lock Haven and Mansfield, on the other. In a study conducted by the Political Economy Research Center at the University of Massachusetts Amherst, more than 1,500 jobs will be eliminated by the restructuring, including 809 faculty and over 600 staff. Both big business parties with the support of the trade unions have for years pushed for this destructive plan, salivating at the prospects of dropping the state system from the state budget permanently. As early as January 2019, Democratic Governor Tom Wolf noted when swearing in Dr. Daniel Greenstein as Chancellor of PASSHE that he was “talking about fundamental transformation and redesign” of state systems, entailing closures and public-private partnerships. PASSHE officials and the state government point to the system’s financial situation as justification for the layoffs and mergers and say this will reduce costs for students. However, they paper over the fact that PASSHE and the state’s policies have deliberately plunged the system into its financial mess and the plan will do nothing to alleviate the skyrocketing cost of tuition and the debt students will carry after graduation. At the start of last year’s semester, Pennsylvania’s 14 state-owned universities lost over 5,000 students, a drop in enrollment not seen in over three decades. The system, founded in 1983, saw its enrollment peak at about 119,500 students in 2010 and has since fallen to 88,651. The COVID-19 pandemic and the ruling class’s criminal profit-over-lives policy has prompted a mass exodus of students who are refusing to attend coronavirus-infested universities, accelerating a process that has been underway for over a decade. State officials are using the overall 5.4 percent downturn and the anticipated loss of $36 million (4.5 percent) in tuition revenues to further entrench their “consolidation” plan proposed and approved by the Democratic government-appointed Greenstein. With the rapid surge of the highly transmissible Omicron mutation, spring enrollment numbers will be down across the board for each PASSHE school. Despite the freeze in tuition fees for the past three years by the state system to retain as many students as possible, the pandemic’s impact on family incomes has also compelled young people to postpone college education or seek cheaper forms of schooling. PASSHE’S financial situation is compounded by its low financial support from the state legislature. Pennsylvania ranks 47th among the 50 states in per capita funding for state universities, including the University of Pittsburgh and Penn State.

Yale, Georgetown, Other Top Schools Illegally Collude to Limit Student Financial Aid, Lawsuit Alleges – WSJ -Sixteen major U.S. universities, including Yale University, Georgetown University and Northwestern University, are being sued for alleged antitrust violations because of the way they work together to determine financial-aid awards for students. According to a lawsuit filed in Illinois federal court late Sunday by law firms representing five former students who attended some of the schools, the universities engaged in price fixing and unfairly limited aid by using a shared methodology to calculate applicants’ financial need. Schools are allowed under federal law to collaborate on their formulas, but only if they don’t consider applicants’ financial need in admissions decisions. The suit alleges these schools do weigh candidates’ ability to pay in certain circumstances, and therefore shouldn’t be eligible for the antitrust exemption.The suit seeks damages and a permanent end to the schools’ collaboration in calculating financial need and awarding aid.College admissions practices are being challenged more broadly and pillars of the decades-old admissions system are crumbling.The Supreme Court is expected to decide as soon as this week whether to take up two cases centered on affirmative action, involving Harvard University and the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill.Amherst College in October said it would stop giving an edge to applicants whose parents attended the school, placing it among the first elite schools to ditch legacy preferences. And in part because the pandemic made it difficult for students to take the ACT and SAT, thousands of colleges shifted to a test-optional policy for recent and current applicants. Hundreds of those schools have since extended the offer for at least a few more years.In addition to Yale, Georgetown and Northwestern, other named defendants in the suit are: Brown University, the California Institute of Technology, the University of Chicago, Columbia University, Cornell University, Dartmouth College, Duke University, Emory University, the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, the University of Notre Dame, the University of Pennsylvania, Rice University and Vanderbilt University.Lawyers say more than 170,000 former undergraduate students who received partial financial aid at those schools going back up to 18 years could be eligible to join the suit as plaintiffs.

 Navient to pay $1.85 billion to settle deceptive lending charges -Over 66,000 student loan borrowers will see their debts wiped out under a $1.85 billion settlement between the student loan servicer Navient and 40 state attorneys general, officials said Thursday. In agreeing to forgive debt and pay restitution, Navient is settling allegations of deceptive and unfair lending practices that go back two decades. According to lawsuits filed in multiple states, Navient and its predecessor Sallie Mae peddled subprime student loans to borrowers it knew could not pay them back and deliberately steered borrowers into expensive forbearance plans when cheaper, income-based repayment options were available. “For many borrowers, removing this debt will be life changing,” Massachusetts Attorney General Maura Healey said during a joint announcement hosted with attorneys general of Pennsylvania, California, Illinois and Washington. M

Canton, Ohio police, district attorney, blame victim after body camera footage confirms cop shot James Williams without warning -- After a police officer murdered husband and father of six James Williams in his backyard shortly after midnight on January 1, 2022, the Canton, Ohio police department, in coordination with local media and state District Attorney David Yost, are engaged in a cover-up to obfuscate the culpability of the police and tamp down social anger. More than a week after an officer from the Canton Police Department shot and killed Williams as he was ringing in the New Year with celebratory gunfire in his backyard, police have yet to release the name of the cop, much less file charges. Disturbing police body camera footage released this week shows officers surrounding Williams as he is firing his AR15 rifle toward the sky. The footage confirms his widow Marquetta’s account of events and her initial statements to the local press. “Out of the blue, he said he got shot,” Marquetta recounted. “Nobody said anything. They didn’t say, ‘Police.’ They didn’t say, ‘Freeze.’ They didn’t say, ‘Drop your weapon.’ They just shot him.” From the footage, it is clear that James is not pointing his rifle at the police; the weapon is pointed at a roughly 70 degree angle, towards the sky. While the practice of “celebratory gunfire” is illegal within Canton city limits, the tradition is generally tolerated by police departments on holidays such as New Year’s Eve and the Fourth of July. Speaking to the Canton Repository, Marquetta noted that celebratory gunfire was a common practice in the neighborhood and for the family: “The kids were watching the countdown and we were going outside to shoot guns like everybody else does at New Year’s. ... We do this every year because it was New Year’s Eve. Everybody (in the neighborhood) was shooting. It was a tradition. Everybody shoots on New Year’s Eve.” From the footage it is obvious that Williams posed no threat to the officer. From the cop’s angle, Williams is never observed pointing his weapon at the police. It does not appear Williams even noticed police were prowling outside his house, guns drawn. In the audio released, no cops are heard warning or giving verbal commands to Williams. It is only after the cop fired his weapon through the fence, striking and killing Williams, that he announced his presence.

COVID-19 – Omicron: resistant to most monoclonal antibodies but neutralized by a booster dose - Initial epidemiological studies demonstrate that the Omicron variant is more transmissible than the Delta variant. The Omicron variant's biological characteristics are still relatively unknown. It has more than 32 mutations in the spike protein compared with the first SARS-CoV-2 and was designated as a variant of concern by WHO on November 26, 2021. Analyses in various countries indicate that the doubling time for cases is approximately 2 to 4 days. Omicron has been detected in dozens of countries, including France and became dominant by the end of 2021. In a new study supported by the European Union's Health Emergency Preparedness and Response Authority (HERA), scientists from the Institut Pasteur and the Vaccine Research Institute, in collaboration with KU Leuven (Leuven, Belgium), Orléans Regional Hospital, Hôpital Européen Georges Pompidou (AP-HP) and Inserm, studied the sensitivity of Omicron to antibodies compared with the currently dominant Delta variant. The aim of the study was to characterize the efficacy of therapeutic antibodies, as well as antibodies developed by individuals previously infected with SARS-CoV-2 or vaccinated, in neutralizing this new variant. The scientists from KU Leuven isolated the Omicron variant of SARS-CoV-2 from a nasal sample of a 32-year-old woman who developed moderate COVID-19 a few days after returning from Egypt. The isolated virus was immediately sent to scientists at the Institut Pasteur, where therapeutic monoclonal antibodies and serum samples from people who had been vaccinated or previously exposed to SARS-CoV-2 were used to study the sensitivity of the Omicron variant. The scientists used rapid neutralization assays, developed by the Institut Pasteur's Virus and Immunity Unit, on the isolated sample of the Omicron virus. This collaborative multidisciplinary effort also involved the Institut Pasteur's virologists and specialists in the analysis of viral evolution and protein structure, together with teams from Orléans Regional Hospital and Hôpital Européen Georges Pompidou in Paris. The scientists began by testing nine monoclonal antibodies used in clinical practice or currently in preclinical development. Six antibodies lost all antiviral activity, and the other three were 3 to 80 times less effective against Omicron than against Delta. The antibodies Bamlanivimab/Etesevimab (a combination developed by Lilly), Casirivimab/Imdevimab (a combination developed by Roche and known as Ronapreve) and Regdanvimab (developed by Celtrion) no longer had any antiviral effect against Omicron. The Tixagevimab/Cilgavimab combination (developed by AstraZeneca under the name Evusheld) was 80 times less effective against Omicron than against Delta. "We demonstrated that this highly transmissible variant has acquired significant resistance to antibodies. Most of the therapeutic monoclonal antibodies currently available against SARS-CoV-2 are inactive," The scientists observed that the blood of patients previously infected with COVID-19, collected up to 12 months after symptoms, and that of individuals who had received two doses of the Pfizer or AstraZeneca vaccine, taken five months after vaccination, barely neutralized the Omicron variant. But the sera of individuals who had received a booster dose of Pfizer, analyzed one month after vaccination, remained effective against Omicron. Five to 31 times more antibodies were nevertheless required to neutralize Omicron, compared with Delta, in cell culture assays. These results help shed light on the continued efficacy of vaccines in protecting against severe forms of disease. .

Vaccinated women pass COVID-19 antibodies to breastfeeding babies - Women vaccinated against COVID-19 transfer SARS-CoV-2 antibodies to their breastfed infants, potentially giving their babies passive immunity against the coronavirus, according to University of Massachusetts Amherst research.The study, published in the journal Obstetrics & Gynecology, measured the immune response to the COVID-19 mRNA vaccine in both breast milk and the stools of breastfed infants. “This research is the first to detect SARS-CoV-2 antibodies in stool samples from infants of vaccinated mothers,” says lead author Vignesh Narayanaswamy, a Ph.D. candidate in the breastmilk research lab of senior author Kathleen Arcaro, professor of environmental toxicology in the Department of Veterinary and Animal Sciences. “This is really important because women want to know whether their babies have these antibodies, and our study shows that antibodies are being transferred via breast milk. Providing this compelling evidence is motivation for women to continue breastfeeding after they receive the vaccine.”Narayanaswamy notes another important takeaway: the antibodies were detected in infants regardless of age – from 1.5 months old to 23 months old.Thirty lactating women from across the U.S. – most of them healthcare workers – were enrolled in the study. They received the COVID-19 mRNA vaccine between January and April 2021. The women provided breast milk samples before they were vaccinated, across two to three weeks after their first vaccine dose and across three weeks after the second dose. They also gave samples of their blood, spotted on cards, 19 days after the first dose and 21 days after the second dose. Infant stool samples were collected 21 days after the mothers’ second vaccination. Pre-pandemic samples of breast milk, dried blood spots and infant stools were used as controls for the study.The samples were tested for receptor-binding domain (RBD)-specific immunoglobulin (Ig)A and IgG antibodies. In the breast milk samples, anti-RBD IgG antibodies were found to neutralize the protein spike of SARS-CoV-2, as well as four variants. A significant increase in cytokine levels also revealed the immune response in breast milk samples.Anti-RBD IgG and anti-RBD IgA antibodies were detected in 33% and 30% of infant stool samples, respectively. The levels of antibodies correlated with the vaccine side effects the mother experienced. “Women who did feel sick from the vaccine was associated with greater antibodies in the infant stool,” Arcaro says. “So you might have felt badly, but that was a benefit for your infant.”

Can You Get the Flu and Covid at the Same Time? -- Yes, you can get “flurona.” But it’s probably not as bad as it sounds. Reports about dual infection with the flu virus and the coronavirus have been making sensational headlines recently. Last week Israel confirmed its first case of “flurona,” in an unvaccinated woman, followed by a growing number of cases in children in the United States. None were seriously ill, but the name “flurona” stuck.“It sounds like ‘sharknado,’” Dr. Saad B. Omer, the director of the Yale Institute for Global Health, said. “But it’s not a known medical term.” …… “The reason we haven’t talked about it much is that it’s not been clinically a challenge yet,” said Dr. Jonathan D. Grein, an infectious disease physician and thedirector of hospital epidemiology at Cedars Sinai Medical Center. “We anticipate that as flu becomes more prevalent, we will see more co-infections.” If it becomes a serious problem, experts expect to know a lot more about it in the coming months. …“An infection to one might help to aid your immune response to another,” Dr. Grein said, “because it’s activating that same immune response that’s going to be effective in fighting both.” …“The majority of people who have influenza do just fine. The majority of people who have Covid do just fine, especially if they’re vaccinated,” said Dr. Andrew D. Badley, an infectious disease specialist and the chair of the SARS-CoV-2 Covid-19 Task Force at the Mayo Clinic. “It is hard to predict,” he continued, “but we expect that the majority of people who are co-infected with the two viruses will also do just fine.”But as Dr. Badley and other experts pointed out, it’s generally better to have one infection rather than two. There’s more chance for complications with two infections, and it’s a bigger strain on the body. …

Omicron: ‘The fastest-spreading virus in history’ --Omicron is the fastest-spreading virus known to humankind. Barely a month after its detection in southern Africa, the new variant of the coronavirus was already dominant in countries around the world, with more cases than ever before. “It’s an incredibly rapid spread,” said physician Roby Bhattacharyya, an infectious disease expert at Massachusetts General Hospital (USA).To demonstrate omicron’s infectious power, Bhattacharyya has done a back-of-the-envelope calculation to imagine what a race between omicron and measles, another of the world’s most-contagious viruses, would look like. One person with measles infects 15 others on average if none are vaccinated, compared to the six people infected by omicron. But the key lies in the so-called “generation time”: i.e. the number of days that elapse between when the first person is infectious and when those they infect also become infectious. With measles, that takes about 12 days. In the case of omicron, this only takes four to five days. “One case of measles would cause 15 cases within 12 days. One case of omicron would give rise to another six at four days, 36 cases at eight days and 216 after 12 days,” explained Bhattacharyya.In the real world beyond the envelope, the new variant of the coronavirus also encounters people who are vaccinated or who have already been infected with Covid-19, slowing its spread. The doctor therefore believes that each person infected with omicron infects only three other individuals, a figure similar to that of the original virus in the Chinese city of Wuhan, which exploded onto a planet with no immune defenses and no containment measures. “With current conditions, a simple exponential growth model would still show 14 million people infected in 60 days from a single case, compared to 760,000 with measles in a population with no specific defenses,” Bhattacharyya warned.Historian and physician Anton Erkoreka researches epidemics from the past, and is flabbergasted by omicron’s spread. “It is the most-explosive and the fastest-spreading virus in history,” he declared. Erkoreka, director of the Basque Museum of the History of Medicine, recalls that the Black Death (14th century) and 19th-century cholera took years to spread around the world. The so-called Russian flu of 1889, which may have been caused by another coronavirus, required three months to traverse the planet. That is similar to the time taken by the original variant of SARS-CoV-2, detected in December 2019 in Wuhan and already omnipresent by March 2020. “The omicron variant has beaten that record of expansion,” Erkoreka said.The unprecedented spread of omicron is not in doubt, but what is less clear is the effect this tsunami of cases will have on populations with high vaccination rates among the most vulnerable. In Spain, almost 100% of those aged 70 and over are vaccinated. Omicron is capable of infecting inoculated people, but vaccines still prevent serious disease, as confirmed by a recent study led by Dutch virologist Corine GeurtsvanKessel of Erasmus University in Rotterdam. The individual risk is much lower than with previous variants, but with so many infections, daily admissions to Spanish intensive care units (ICUs) are already half of those recorded during the worst peak of the wave in January 2021, when virtually no one was vaccinated.

Omicron variant will 'find just about everybody,' Fauci says, but vaccinated people will still fare better – CNN -As the Omicron variant spreads like wildfire across the United States, it's likely just about everybody will be exposed to the strain, but vaccinated people will still fare better, the nation's leading infectious disease expert said Tuesday."Omicron, with its extraordinary, unprecedented degree of efficiency of transmissibility, will ultimately find just about everybody," Dr. Anthony Fauci told J. Stephen Morrison, senior vice president of the Center for Strategic and International Studies. "Those who have been vaccinated ... and boosted would get exposed. Some, maybe a lot of them, will get infected but will very likely, with some exceptions, do reasonably well in the sense of not having hospitalization and death."In contrast, those who are not vaccinated are "going to get the brunt of the severe aspect of this," he added.Across the United States, at least one in five eligible Americans -- roughly 65 million people-- are not vaccinated against Covid-19. More than 62% of the country has been fully vaccinated, but only 23% are fully vaccinated and boosted, according to data from the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.Fauci's comments came in response to a question about whether the pandemic has entered a new phase. That will come when there's enough protection in the community and drugs to easily treat severe Covid-19, he said, adding, "We may be on the threshold of that right now."Also Tuesday, US Food and Drug Administration acting commissioner Dr. Janet Woodcock said that while most people could catch the virus, the focus now should be on making sure hospitals and essential services function.Woodcock was responding to a question from Sen. Mike Braun about whether it's time for the United States to change its Covid-19 strategy. Her statement was not a new assessment of Covid-19, but rather an attempt to make clear the need to prioritize essential services as the Omicron variant surges."I think it's hard to process what's actually happening right now, which is: Most people are going to get Covid," Woodcock said Tuesday at a Senate Health, Education, Labor and Pensions Committee hearing. "And what we need to do is make sure the hospitals can still function, transportation, you know, other essential services are not disrupted while this happens."

Omicron has a 91% lower chance of death than delta variant of COVID-19: studyThe year 2021 was the seventh in a row in which global temperatures were more than 1 degree Celsius above the preindustrial average. It’s unlikely anyone alive will see the world’s temperature drop below that 1-degree benchmark again. “There is no going back,” said Schmidt, director of the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies and a lead researcher on the agency’s annual temperature analysis. The roughly 1.5 trillion tons of carbon dioxide emitted by humans — more than half of it in the 34 years since Hansen’s testimony — will not leave the atmosphere for at least several more centuries.Schmidt added: “We are reaping what we’ve sown.” COVID cases have soared to above 1 million daily cases and even those figures could be a massive undercount due to the widespread use of at-home tests that are not included. But there are already signs that the omicron wave is peaking in New York City and other places in the U.S. where it struck first, mirroring the pattern seen in Britain and South Africa.COVID deaths have also been rising quickly but Walensky blamed that increase on delta because most people dying now likely contracted COVID several weeks ago.

‘Omicron the Pandemic Killer’ Idea Ignores Dangers of Long COVID Sometimes lost among the evidence that the Omicron variant of COVID-19 might be a way to, ironically, end the pandemic–mild symptoms and high infectivity might get us to herd immunity—is this question: What about long COVID? That’s especially pertinent to infection preventionists (IPs) and other health care professionals who find themselves yet again on the frontlines of another surge.According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), long COVID “is a range of symptoms that can last weeks or months after first being infected with the virus that causes COVID-19 or can appear weeks after infection. Long COVID can happen to anyone who has had COVID-19, even if their illness was mild, or if they had no symptoms.”Linda Spaulding, RN-BC, CIC, CHEC, CHOP, a member of Infection Control Today^®’s Editorial Advisory Board (EAB), says that she’s “seen athletes in their 20s on the wait list for double lung transplants because of long COVID. That’s something that has long-term consequences. Some people talk of COVID fog. They just can’t put their thoughts together.”In addition, even the treatments for those with long COVID can put toll on a patient’s body.IPs and other health care workers on the frontlines are also in danger of contracting long COVID. “If health care workers have to give up their careers, then what comes next?,” says Spaulding, adding that the financial consequences of long COVID on the health care system could last “forever.”A preprint study by Oxford University investigators on the medRxiv website, compares brain scans for SARS-CoV-2 infections in 394 COVID-19 patients who tested positive for the infection against 388 patients in a control group. “We identified significant effects of COVID-19 in the brain with a loss of grey matter in the left parahippocampal gyrus, the left lateral orbitofrontal cortex and the left insula,” the study states. “When looking over the entire cortical surface, these results extended to the anterior cingulate cortex, supramarginal gyrus and temporal pole.” As noted by Kevin Kavanagh, MD, another member of ICT^®’s EAB, a core difficulty in society’s attempt to guide COVID-19 from pandemic to endemic is that COVID is not just a respiratory virus. Kavanagh wrote in October that SARS-CoV-2 is similar to HIV because it can “silently spread throughout the host’s body and attack almost every organ.”

More on the Morbidity Risk of Omicron: “Like a Chess Grandmaster Playing Against Schoolboys” --Yves Smith --The officialdom in the US and abroad has been engaging in even more aggressive efforts to normalize the ongoing risk of contracting Covid. Mind you, plenty of prominent voices, from antivaxxers to the health ministry of Sweden to the Great Barrington Declaration types have been misrepresenting the dangers of contracting Covid by comparing it to winter bugs. But the common cold doesn’t leave you with months of crushing fatigue and brain fog, or heart inflammation, or kidney damage, or greater risk of getting cancer….or even possibly developing Type 1 diabetes. Moreover, it’s not clear whether patients who suffer these afflictions fully recover. There’s also reason to doubt how much vaccines blunt this kind of damage by virtue of blunting the most dangerous symptoms but not preventing infection or even moderate to pretty bad cases. For instance, a 2021 study found 20% of asymptomatic Covid cases resulted in long Covid.¹ The prevalence of “mild” cases under Omicron is actually worse than the prevalence of asymptomatic cases under Delta, since mild is worse than asymptomatic. Nor do we know if treatments that reduce the severity and duration of Covid cases curtail or even prevent morbidities. If treatments do a better job of curtailing long-term damage than vaccines, we have our Covid strategy backwards. However, rather than study these and other basic but important questions intensively, our so-called public health officers have more and more become water boys for the pols. As a result, if they had once tried to appear that they were doing anything other than “Let ‘er rip,” they are openly capitulating. One blunt statement came from the UK’s Dr. Clive Dix, the former chair of its vaccine task force. Per the Guardian: Covid should be treated as an endemic virus similar to flu, and ministers should end mass-vaccination after the booster campaign…. With health chiefs and senior Tories also lobbying for a post-pandemic plan for a straining NHS, Dr Clive Dix called for a major rethink of the UK’s Covid strategy, in effect reversing the approach of the past two years and returning to a “new normality”. “We need to analyse whether we use the current booster campaign to ensure the vulnerable are protected, if this is seen to be necessary,” he said. “Mass population-based vaccination in the UK should now end.” He said ministers should urgently back research into Covid immunity beyond antibodies to include B-cells and T-cells (white blood cells). This could help create vaccines for vulnerable people specific to Covid variants, he said, adding: “We now need to manage disease, not virus spread. So stopping progression to severe disease in vulnerable groups is the future objective.” The fact that Dix is talking about T-cells is discrediting. First, T-cells are a secondary line of immune defense. By the time they wheel into action, an infection is advanced, potentially dangerously so. Second, T-cells are a first line of defense against cancer. They wander about the body and attack the cancers you are growing all the time and stop them before they become dangerous. Adults pretty much do not make new T-cells. Even early in Covid, T-cell exhaustion and derangement were cited as dangerous outcomes because depleted cells increases the risk of getting cancer. And oncologists are reporting an increase in cancers, including formerly uncommon cancers, beyond what can be explained by pent up demand due to interruptions in access to doctors and treatment facilities. As we will see shortly, this “stopping progression to severe disease,” as in dealing only with limiting acute infections, conveniently excludes the considerable health damage many experience from the harm equation, By contrast, Finland has warned that long Covid could become its biggest chronic disease.

Official predicts ‘most people are going to get covid’ as global cases reach new high - The Washington Post - Officials on two continents predicted that the omicron variant will infect half or more of the population in Europe and the United States, as global coronavirus infections have again hit a record. In the past week, more than 15 million cases were reported across the world. If the current trend persists, the World Health Organization said that the highly contagious variant could infect more than half of Europe’s population by March. In the United States, some officials project most people will become infected at some point. “I think it’s hard to process what’s actually happening right now,” said Janet Woodcock, acting commissioner of the Food and Drug Administration, during a Senate hearing Tuesday, “which is most people are going to get covid.” Early studies suggest that the omicron variant may cause less severe illness — especially among those who are vaccinated. Still, the United States surpassed its record for coronavirus hospitalizations, with Tuesday’s total of 145,982 people in U.S. hospitals with covid-19, which includes 4,462 children, passing the record of 142,273 set on Jan. 14, 2021, during the previous peak of the pandemic in the country.

Coronavirus dashboard for January 10: how “mild” Omicron is depends upon how much you lag the data -- So, how “mild” or not, is Omicron? It depends on whether you lag the data on hospitalizations and deaths or not. The original story out of South Africa was that Omicron was extremely mild. Despite a huge spike in infections, deaths barely budged. As Omicron took hold in Europe and the US, South Africa disappeared from the picture. Which is too bad, because here is what has been happening with deaths: In the past week, deaths in South Africa tripled. Mind you, deaths - so far, anyway - at 13x their pre-Omicron low, are nowhere near the 80x+ increase in cases. But the point is, deaths lag cases, and until you wait about a month to see how deaths play out, you really don’t know how “mild” Omicron is. And the bad news for the US is, compared with South Africa and even the UK, Omicron hasn’t been as “mild” so far, as shown in the below set of graphs comparing cases, hospitalizations, ICU admissions, and deaths (again, so far): A week ago, the story in the US was still how “mild” Omicron has been, as shown in this graph of cases, hospitalizations, and deaths from New York City (perhaps the earliest hard hit metro area): There’s just one problem with the above graph: hospitalizations and deaths aren’t shown with any sort of lag. Deaths on January 2 are compared with hospitalizations on January 2 and new cases on January 2. But when you put in an appropriate lag, the situation looks much different, as in the below graph in which deaths are lagged 21 days for NYC and two other metros: Or the below graph, including ICU patients with a 14 day lag compared with infections: All of a sudden, Omicron doesn’t appear that much milder at all. This is something I’ve been following since the onset of the Omicron wave. Since hospitalizations started to spike about 10 days after the onset of the wave, i crunched data with a 10 day lag. While I don’t have a graph to show you, I can tell you that each time I have done this, it gives me a result of hospitalizations increasing at a rate of between 65% to 80% of cases. ICU admissions lag hospitalizations by only a day or two, and have gone up at about 50% of the rate of cases. Because the Omicron wave only started in earnest on December 15, 3 1/2 weeks ago, we are only beginning to see the trend in deaths. But we already have more hospitalizations for COVID than we have ever had before in the US, and the system is beginning to break down - and we haven’t even reached the peak yet. As a society, the US seems to have just given up.

Women’s Periods May Be Late After Coronavirus Vaccination, Study Suggests -Shortly after coronavirus vaccines were rolled out about a year ago, women started reporting erratic menstrual cycles after receiving the shots.Some said their periods were late. Others reported heavier bleeding than usual or painful bleeding. Some postmenopausal women who hadn’t had a period in years even said they had menstruated again.A study published on Thursday found that women’s menstrual cycles did indeed change following vaccination against the coronavirus. The authors reported that women who were inoculated had slightly longer menstrual cycles after receiving the vaccine than those who were not vaccinated.Their periods themselves, which came almost a day later on average, were not prolonged, however, and the effect was transient, with cycle lengths bouncing back to normal within one or two months. For example, someone with a 28-day menstrual cycle that starts with seven days of bleeding would still begin with a seven-day period, but the cycle would last 29 days. The cycle ends when the next period starts and would revert to 28 days within a month or two. The delay was more pronounced in women who received both vaccine doses during the same menstrual cycle. These women had their periods two days later than usual, the researchers found.The study, in the journal Obstetrics & Gynecology, is one of the first to support anecdotal reports from women that their menstrual cycles were off after vaccination, said Dr. Hugh Taylor, the chair of the department of obstetrics, gynecology and reproductive sciences at Yale School of Medicine. “It validates that there is something real here,” said Dr. Taylor, who has heard about irregular cycles from his own patients. At the same time, he added, the changes seen in the study were not significant and appeared to be transient. “I want to make sure we dissuade people from those untrue myths out there about fertility effects,” Dr. Taylor said. “A cycle or two where periods are thrown off may be annoying, but it’s not going to be harmful in a medical way.” He had a different message for postmenopausal women who experience vaginal bleeding or spotting, whether after vaccination or not, warning that they may have a serious medical condition and should be evaluated by a physician.

Europe's FDA Warns Against Vaccine Boosters, Expresses Concerns Over Immune Response - The European Union’s drug regulator expressed doubts about whether a second booster dose of the currently available COVID-19 vaccines would be a sustainable long-term approach. Marco Cavaleri, the European Medicines Agency’s (EMA) head of vaccines strategy, told a media briefing, “There is an emergency discussion around the possibility of giving a second booster dose with the same vaccine currently in use. Data has not yet been generated to support this approach.”“We have not yet seen data with respect to a fourth dose,” he also said later. “We would like to see this data before we can make any recommendation, but at the same time we are rather concerned about a strategy that [involves] repeated vaccinations within a short term.”Cavaleri said an additional booster shot “could be considered as part of a contingency plan,” but “repeated vaccinations within short intervals will not represent a sustainable long term strategy.”

No Omicron immunity without booster, study finds – An additional “booster” dose of Moderna or Pfizer mRNA-based vaccine is needed to provide immunity against the Omicron variant of SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19, according to a study by researchers at the Ragon Institute of MGH, MIT and Harvard. The results of this study, reported in the journal Cell, indicate that traditional dosing regimens of COVID-19 vaccines available in the United States do not produce antibodies capable of recognizing and neutralizing the Omicron variant. “People desperately wanted to know whether current vaccines protect against Omicron,” says the senior author of the Cell paper, Alejandro Balazs, whose laboratory at the Ragon Institute investigates how to engineer immunity against infectious diseases. To find answers, Balazs collaborated with a team that included the lead author of the Cell paper, Wilfredo F. Garcia-Beltran, a clinical pathology resident at MGH and a clinician-scientist fellow at the Ragon Institute. The first step was to construct a harmless version of Omicron known as a “pseudovirus” that could be used in the laboratory to evaluate the effectiveness of the three COVID-19 vaccines available in the United States, which include the two-dose Pfizer and Moderna injections and the one-dose Johnson & Johnson vaccine. Next, Garcia-Beltran worked with colleagues at MGH, including hematology-oncology fellow Vivek Naranbhai, to acquire blood samples from 239 individuals who had been fully vaccinated with one of the three COVID-19 vaccines. The blood samples were used to measure how effectively each vaccine induces production of protective immunity in the form of antibodies against the Omicron pseudovirus, as well as the Delta and wild type viruses. The results were striking. “We detected very little neutralization of the Omicron variant pseudovirus when we used samples taken from people who were recently vaccinated with two doses of mRNA vaccine or one dose of Johnson & Johnson,” says Balazs. “But individuals who received three doses of mRNA vaccine had very significant neutralization against the Omicron variant.” It’s not yet clear why an mRNA booster dramatically improves immune protection against Omicron, but Garcia-Beltran says one possibility is that an additional dose creates antibodies that bind more tightly to the spike protein, increasing their effectiveness. Also, a booster dose may generate antibodies that target regions of the spike protein that are common to all forms of SARS-CoV-2. Both theories may be true, says Garcia-Beltran. Balazs notes that the three-dose mRNA vaccine regimen — that is, the traditional two doses and a booster of Pfizer or Moderna vaccines — provides somewhat lower levels of neutralizing antibodies against Omicron than it does against the COVID-19 wild type strain or Delta variant. But the study’s results strongly support the CDC’s advice that COVID-19 booster shots are appropriate for anyone 16 and older, and that mRNA vaccines are preferred.

WHO body says COVID-19 vaccines may need to be updated for Omicron (Reuters) - A technical advisory group established by the World Health Organization said on Tuesday that current COVID-19 vaccines may need to be updated to ensure they are effective against new variants like Omicron. The statement comes after several real-world studies found the variant, highly resistant to antibodies from a past infection as well as those elicited by vaccination, reduced the efficacy of most used doses to under 40%.“The composition of current Covid-19 vaccines may need to be updated, to ensure that Covid-19 vaccines continue to provide WHO-recommended levels of protection against infection and disease by VOCs, including Omicron and future variants,” the body of independent experts said in a statement.The WHO set 50% efficacy as the minimum bar for coronavirus vaccines, which each of them met when tested against the variant that first spread in 2020, but has since been reduced by the Sars-CoV-2’s evolution.The WHO panel, called TAG-CO-VAC, asked vaccine makers to generate and provide data on the performance of Omicron-specific vaccines for now. Several companies, including Moderna and Pfizer, are testing Omicron-specific vaccines, while some others have begun testing pan-coronavirus vaccines in clinical trials. Pan-coronavirus vaccines are difficult to design.

Pfizer CEO says two Covid vaccine doses aren't 'enough for omicron' - Pfizer CEO Albert Bourla on Monday said two doses of the company's vaccine may not provide strong protection against infection from the Covid omicron variant, and the original shots have also lost some of their efficacy at preventing hospitalization.Bourla, in an interview at JPMorgan's health-care conference, emphasized the importance of a third shot to boost people's protection against omicron."The two doses, they're not enough for omicron," Bourla said. "The third dose of the current vaccine is providing quite good protection against deaths, and decent protection against hospitalizations."Bourla said omicron is a more difficult target than previous variants. Omicron, which has dozens of mutations, can evade some of the protection provided by Pfizer's original two shots."We have seen with a second dose very clearly that the first thing that we lost was the protection against infections," Bourla said. "But then two months later, what used to be very strong in hospitalization also went down. And I think this is what everybody's worried about."Real-world data from the United Kingdom has found that two vaccine doses are 52% effective at preventing hospitalization 25 weeks after receiving the second shot, according to data from the U.K. Health Security Agency. Two-doses of Pfizer's or Moderna's vaccines are only about 10% effective at preventing infection from omicron 20 weeks after the second dose, according to the U.K. data.A booster dose, on the other hand, is up to 75% effective at preventing symptomatic infection and 88% effective at preventing hospitalization, according to the data.However, Bourla said it's unclear how long a booster dose will provide protection against Covid. The U.K. Health Security Agency also found that boosters are only 40% to 50% effective against infection 10 weeks after receiving the shot."The question mark, it is how long that protection lasts with the third dose," Bourla said. The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is now recommending that some people with compromised immune systems receive four shots, three primary doses and one booster. Israel has rolled out fourth Pfizer doses for people over the age of 60. Israel found that fourth doses increase protective antibodies fivefold.

Pfizer CEO predicts omicron vaccine will be ready in March - Pfizer CEO Albert Bourla on Monday said that his company is aiming to have a vaccine that targets the omicron variant as well as other COVID-19 variants ready in March. “This vaccine will be ready in March,” Bourla said in an appearance on CNBC’s "Squawk Box."“We [are] already starting manufacturing some of these quantities at risk,” he added. Pfizer will produce the doses to be ready in case countries want the shots, but Bourla noted that it was unclear if a vaccine targeting variants was necessary or how exactly it would be used.“The hope is that we will achieve something that will have way, way better protection particularly against infections, because the protection against the hospitalizations and the severe disease — it is reasonable right now with the current vaccines as long as you are having let’s say the third dose,” Bourla said.Last month, Anthony Fauci, the White House chief medical adviser, said that he did not see a need for an omicron-specific vaccine. "Our booster vaccine regimens work against omicron," he said. "At this point there is no need for a variant-specific booster." To combat the new variant, Fauci encouraged people to get their booster shots and their vaccines.

Moderna CEO says omicron-specific booster trials will begin soon - Moderna CEO Stephane Bancel said on Monday that his company was "working very actively" on a COVID-19 vaccine booster shot to target the omicron variant. “We are discussing with public health leaders around the world to decide what we think is the best strategy for the potential booster for the fall of 2022. We believe it will contain omicron,” Bancel said on CNBC's "Squawk Box."“We need to be careful to try to stay ahead of a virus and not behind the virus,” he also said.Bancel added that the booster shot would soon enter clinical trials and that the company would assess if there was a need for other components to be added to the shot. Also on Monday, Pfizer CEO Albert Bourla said his company would have a vaccine to target omicron ready by March. He did, however, note that it was unclear if a vaccine targeting variants was necessary or how exactly it would be used.Nonetheless, the company would have the shots ready in case countries wanted them.

Study suggests common cold may provide some protection against COVID-19 -- A small study from the Imperial College London suggests that the body’s defense against common cold coronaviruses may provide some protection against COVID-19, providing a potential direction for upcoming vaccine development. The research published in Nature Communications on Monday found that people with higher T cell levels from previous coronavirus infections like the common cold were less likely to contract COVID-19.

Strain of Covid-19 combining Delta and Omicron discovered -- The global Covid death toll has passed 5.4 million, with a figure of 5,488,750 according to researchers at Johns Hopkins University. Meanwhile, infections passed 300 million to a world wide figure of 307,179,029.A strain of Covid-19 that combines Delta and Omicron was found in Cyprus, according to Leondios Kostrikis, professor of biological sciences at the University of Cyprus and head of the Laboratory of Biotechnology and Molecular Virology. “There are currently Omicron and Delta co-infections and we found this strain that is a combination of these two,” Kostrikis said in an interview with Sigma TV Friday. The discovery was named “Deltacron” due to the identification of Omicron-like genetic signatures within the Delta genomes, he said. Kostrikis and his team have identified 25 such cases.

 Few alarms over cases of drug-resistant COVID – Harvard Gazette Maha Farhat, assistant professor of biomedical informatics at HMS, said a recent study has found mutations in the gene that would cause remdesivir resistance … “are more rare than you would expect by chance.” As the latest coronavirus variant upends expectations about the pandemic’s coming months, drug manufacturers are working to expand treatment options to fight those stricken with severe disease. Even as new pills from Pfizer and Merck wind their way through the regulatory process, scientists last month detailed a case of resistance to remdesivir, one of the earliest drugs used to fight COVID-19. The case, in an immune-compromised patient who battled the illness for months, raised the specter of the virus opening a new front in the pandemic, one in which hard-won progress in devising new treatments is eroded by the fast-moving virus. The Gazette spoke with Maha Farhat, assistant professor of biomedical informatics at Harvard Medical School and physician at Massachusetts General Hospital who researches drug resistance and pathogen evolution, about what the rise of remdesivir resistance means for the path of the pandemic. This interview was edited for length and clarity.

Rationing Paxlovid based on race and ethnicity - The United States is currently recording over 700,000 new cases of Covid-19 per day and the number is rising rapidly. Fortunately, vaccines are quite effective at preventing severe disease, and Pfizer’s anti-viral drug, Paxlovid is remarkably effective at preventing death and severe illness from Covid-19. However, only 265,000 courses of Paxlovid are expected by the end of January, and Paxlovid needs to be taken early in the course of illness before symptoms are severe. This means that supplies will be woefully inadequate during the Omicron wave. Severe rationing seems to be inevitable. The New York State Department of Health recently released guidelines for Paxlovid eligibility (my italics, see formatting in original):Oral antiviral treatment is authorized for patients who meet all the following criteria:

• • Age 12 years and older weighing at least 40 kg (88 pounds) for Paxlovid, or 18 years and older for molnupiravir
• • Test positive for SARS-CoV-2 on a nucleic acid amplification test or antigen test; results from an FDA-authorized home-test kit should be validated through video or photo but, if not possible, patient attestation is adequate
• • Have mild to moderate COVID-19 symptoms
• o Patient cannot be hospitalized due to severe or critical COVID-19
• • Able to start treatment within 5 days of symptom onset
• • Have a medical condition or other factors that increase their risk for severe illness.
• o Non-white race or Hispanic/Latino ethnicity should be considered a risk factor, as longstanding systemic health and social inequities have contributed to an increased risk of severe illness and death from COVID-19

Naturally, the inclusion of race and Hispanic ethnicity as risk factors led to moral outrage among right-wing commentators worried that Black people are about to getspecial treatment:But . . . why would anyone familiar with racial politics in America think that Black and Hispanic people are likely to get preferred access to a scarce, life-saving medical treatment? In fact, this tweet is in bad faith. As several people have pointed out, the guidance does not exclude White people from getting Paxlovid. The problem is worse than this, however. If you bother to click the links and read the guidance, it turns out that Black/Hispanic people are not automatically eligible for treatment with Paxlovid. Race and ethnicity play a fairly modest role in determining who gets Paxlovid treatment – a role that may be justified. Having said this, there are serious problems with the NYDH guidance. One problem is that NYDH does not present evidence that Black/Hispanic people are more vulnerable to Covid-19 than otherwise similar White people. This means that the policy could be wrong on the merits – that is, it may save Black/Hispanic lives by letting a larger number of more vulnerable White people die. The lack of evidence also makes the policy politically inflammatory and legally vulnerable. And to top it off, it seems doubtful that the policy will do much to protect vulnerable Black/Hispanic people from omicron, and there are probably more useful steps NYDH could have taken to do this. In short, the policy seems to encapsulate an awful lot of what is wrong with racial politics in the United States, on both the right and the left.

Los Angeles area sets new COVID-19 record - Los Angeles County reported more than 45,000 new COVID-19 cases on Sunday, another record-setting total for the area. The county said on Sunday that it had 45,584 new COVID-19 cases, up from 34,448 cases on Saturday. Thirteen new deaths were also reported, according to the county's public health department.The seven-day average positivity rate stood at 20.6 percent on Sunday, and on Saturday the county said it had more than 200,000 confirmed COVID-19 cases in the past week, the highest weekly infection rate of the entire pandemic.“Our hearts remain with those families experiencing the sorrow of losing those they love to COVID,” said Barbara Ferrer, who serves as director of public health for the county."As the surge continues, we ask residents and businesses to continue following the public health safety measures that we know reduce spread and keep people safe," she added. Despite the rising case count, the area's school district is set to return to in-person instruction on Tuesday. Both Los Angeles Unified School District students and staff members are required to submit a negativeCOVID-19 test before returning to their classrooms.

More than half a million children infected with COVID-19 in the US last week, shattering previous records - Monday’s report from the American Academy of Pediatrics (AAP) for the week ending January 6 recorded a staggering 580,247 pediatric COVID-19 cases, up 74 percent from the previous week’s record 325,000 cases. There were also a record 1,636 pediatric hospitalizations and 14 additional deaths. Each region of the country has skyrocketing child cases that have blown past previous records. The Northeast, with 155,000 cases last week, has nearly overtaken the South for the region with the highest number of weekly child infections. The Midwest and West Coast are not far behind. Across the US, pediatric hospitals are rapidly filling, even before the full effects of Omicron’s spread are felt. Dr. Danielle Zerr, pediatric infectious diseases expert at Seattle Children’s Hospital, told the New York Times that child hospitalizations are “blowing away our previous Delta wave at the end of the summer, early fall, which had been our highest prior to that.” In Louisiana, Dr. Catherine O’Neal of Our Lady of the Lake Regional Medical Center in Baton Rouge, observed to WWNO that “we’re already seeing our max number of kids who have ever been admitted to the children’s hospital during one surge, and we’re not done with this surge yet. Cases continue to mount. We could have our sickest pediatric population of the pandemic so far, and that is not mild.” The 14 deaths were spread across each region of the country. The corporate media continues its virtual cover-up of these children’s deaths, with only one California child’s death being reported by local or national news in recent weeks. As of January 10, the CDC has documented 1,084 pediatric deaths, with a staggering 44 deaths recorded by their tally in just the past 10 days. Educators continue to needlessly die from the virus as well. An unofficial tracker on Twitter has documented at least 11 educators’ deaths in the first 10 days of 2022. Since the start of the semester, there have been thousands of school closures due to the widespread infection of staff and students. Burbio, which tracks K-12 closures, recorded 5,409 school disruptions the week of January 2 and 1,338 active closures on January 10. These have occurred across the country, from Oregon to Arkansas, Vermont, Pennsylvania, Minnesota and New Hampshire. Jefferson County Public Schools in Kentucky, the largest school district in the state with more than 100,000 students, canceled school Monday and announced that the district would switch to remote learning Tuesday through Friday following 1,660 infections last week, the highest number to date. The Covington Independent School District in Northern Kentucky is also returning to remote learning for its 3,800 students. Rochelle, a teacher from a district north of Detroit, where there were 918 school cases last week, told the WSWS: “A lot of the information is being brushed under the rug. They want to tell us that Omicron has milder symptoms, though they don’t have all the information yet. At the same time they hide what they do know. The actual recorded hospitalization in South Africa of young kids under the age of five is very high. “Recently I saw a chart about the [Michigan] Thumb area. We are experiencing a 33 percent test positivity rate. Because of the rising numbers, mask mandates have been reestablished in our schools. Our county health director eliminated her quarantine mandate early in the school year after legislation from Lansing threatened to cut funding where there were quarantine orders or mask mandates. “While you can blame the Republicans and Trump for what they did, it is actually worse now. When Biden got elected, instead of a change, the same policy of normalizing death has continued.”

Coronavirus NY Update: Omicron Breakthrough Infection Data Stuns, Hospitalizations Top 12K – Newly released data on New York breakthrough infections highlights in stark reality the viral force that crippled workforces for virtually every key industry last month, while COVID rates in the one-time epicenter show potential signs of improvement.Fueled by the more vaccine-resistant omicron variant, the daily rate of new COVID infections per 100,000 fully vaccinated New Yorkers grew by more than seven-fold over the course of December, from 29.8 new cases per 100,000 inoculated residents the first week of the month to 223.3 the final week, state data shows.The risk of becoming a new COVID case was exponentially higher for unvaccinated adults, who had a 1,583.1 rate per 100,000 new case rate by the end of December. That's more than six-and-a-half times higher than the new case rate per 100,000 that group had the first week of December (239.6, which, notably, was higher than where the rate per 100,000 fully vaccinated ended the month amid the surge).Overall, the age-adjusted vaccine effectiveness rate for new cases ended December at 77.8%, lower than where it started (80.9%) but a marked uptick over the previous two weeks of data (75.4% the week of Dec. 13, 76.1% the week of Dec. 20). Vaccine effectiveness remained exceptionally high among the fully vaccinated through omicron's December tear, with just 4.59 fully vaccinated New Yorkers of 100,000 ending up hospitalized for COVID the week of Dec. 27.That's up from 1.17 the first week of December, but still almost 13 times lower than the hospitalization rate per 100,000 unvaccinated New Yorkers (58.27). For the latter group, the rate of COVID hospitalization per 100,000 more than tripled over the course of December.Overall, the state reported a 92.3% age-adjusted rate of vaccine effectiveness against COVID hospitalization to end the month of December, a dip from a 95.1% rate the week of Dec. 6 but not a particularly worrisome one.Anecdotally, effectiveness rates remain highest among those who have gotten boosters, and while state data doesn't incorporate that into its fully vaccinated definition, data broken out by age group shows the highest sustained efficacy among adults aged 65 and older. The drops in vaccine efficacy against COVID infection for fully vaccinated people aged 18 to 49 and 50 to 64 were a bit higher but similar to one another, about 3.7%, in December. The drop in efficacy against hospitalization was slightly higher (3.8%) for the older group versus the younger group (3.2%).

Tracking breakthrough cases of COVID-19 in Nueces County - Nueces County health officials are having trouble trying to track breakthrough cases during the current COVID-19 surge. Health Director Annette Rodriguez said the number of people testing positive is so high, it has become near impossible for her staff to provide everyone with the with the information about how many of those who test positive are vaccinated or not. "A lot of people keep asking 'are these breakthrough cases?' I don't have that information yet, that requires us working, counting, talking to them and analyzing the data," Rodriguez said. "It takes a lot of effort, it's not something that just happens." Rodriguez said just before the surge, those who are unvaccinated made up the majority of severe cases. "A couple of weeks ago, I could tell you with certainty that about 90% of the people in the hospital are unvaccinated," Rodriguez said. Rodriguez said there will be a time when her staff can get the vaccination status information on all of the positive cases and when those numbers are available, she will share them.

This area is recording most COVID-19 hospitalizations per 100,000 people --Washington, D.C., is seeing the highest average rate of daily COVID-19 hospitalizations per 100,000 people in the nation, according to federal data cited by The New York Times. As of Jan. 10, Washington, D.C., is reporting 122 daily virus hospitalizations for every 100,000 people, according to the Times. New Jersey is second, reporting 67 hospitalizations per 100,000. The daily hospitalization average in Washington, D.C., was 861 COVID-19 patients as of Jan. 10. The area has seen virus admissions rise 228 percent over the last 14 days, according to the Times. In comparison, national hospitalizations have increased 83 percent over the same period.

San Diego County hospitalizations rising amid staffing shortages - California is reporting that San Diego County has 988 COVID-19 patients hospitalized. That is 45 more patients than the day prior.To put it in perspective, there are roughly 180 ICU beds available countywide. Local hospitals said while they are concerned about the lack of beds, staffing shortages, and the daily new admittances while still tending to those in their care.UC San Diego Health admitted about 15 new patients this weekend alone. rising amid staffing shortages "We are doing our best. But there's no doubt that wait times are longer and our emergency departments are seeing increased volume because people who are symptomatic and might otherwise go to their doctors office or get a test are unable to do that because of staffing and access," Chief Medical Officer with UC San Diego Health, Chris Longhurst, said. Dr. Longhurst said that within the last seven days, across their hospitals, about 900 staff members have been diagnosed with COVID-19. Over at Scripps Health, the state and county have helped them acquire additional staff, as they also continue to hire to meet demand. "The average employee sick call is about one and a half percent per day," President/CEO Chris Van Goder with Scripps Health said. "Last year during the big surge we got up to about 6 percent of our employee. Now it's about 15%." The other hurdle has been capacity. As of midnight, Scripps Health has 291 COVID patients. 31 patients were admitted Sunday alone. Across all Scripps hospitals, there are currently only 14 inpatient beds and three ICU beds available. "Unfortunately, most of the hospitals in San Diego County at one time or another in the last week have been on diversion," Van Goder said.

N.J. COVID hospitalizations surge past 6,000 patients. Another 21,691 cases, 29 confirmed deaths reported. - New Jersey on Monday reported another 29 confirmed COVID-19 deaths and 21,691 confirmed positive cases, while the number of coronavirus patients hospitalized statewide topped 6,000 for the first time since late April 2020.“We are in the thick of this latest fight of this omicron tsunami washing across the state,” Gov. Phil Murphy said during his latest coronavirus briefing in Trenton.Murphy also announced the statewide mask mandate in schools — set to expire Tuesday — will remain “for the foreseeable future.”That comes amid a battle with lawmakers over his request to extend some of his remaining emergency powers and orders for 90 days. Neither house of the state Legislature voted to extend the powers Monday at its final session of the current legislative season. That means Murphy might have to order a new public-health emergency to extend the orders — including the school mask mandate — before they sunset at 11:59 p.m. Tuesday. The state’s seven-day average for new confirmed positive tests increased to 27,914, up 19% from a week ago and 693% from a month ago as the highly transmissible omicron variant continues to fuel surges across the globe. There were at least 6,075 patients with confirmed or suspected COVID-19 cases across 70 of New Jersey’s 71 hospitals of Sunday night. One hospital did not report data.

Massachusetts Changing How It Reports COVID Hospitalizations – – Massachusetts is changing how it reports hospitalizations in itsdaily COVID report.Officials will now distinguish between patients admitted for COVID and those who were hospitalized for other reasons and then tested positive.“It is its own measurement,” Tufts Medical Center epidemiologist Dr. Shira Doron said. “We will be measuring what proportion of patients who are COVID positive and in the hospital, are being treated with the drug dexamethasone, which is a drug that’s used for patients who have impaired oxygenation due to COVID.”The state is hoping to get a better sense of the severity of the Omicron surge. Right now, more than 2,900 people in Massachusetts hospitals have COVID.“There may be a patient who is mildly ill from COVID and because of that they became dehydrated or because of that they fell. They won’t be captured, but their hospitalization is related to their COVID,” Doron said.“It’s not a perfect metric by a longshot, but what it is, is a very reproduceable and a very reliable and a very objective metric that every hospital can apply in the exact same way and that’s what we were looking for here.”New York began a similar reporting practice last week. Hospitals will begin to report the new data to the state this week. The first data reported on this metric will be available the week of January 17.

U.S. Covid-19 Cases Set to Triple Pre-Omicron Record – WSJ --The seven-day average of newly reported Covid-19 infections in the U.S. is on track to triple the pre-Omicron record set a year ago, when America saw a quarter million daily cases, as concerns grow over access to and reliability of testing both in the U.S. and Europe, where the highly transmissible Omicron variant has also taken root.Growing demand for tests has led some laboratories to ration access, giving priority to people exhibiting symptoms or who have other underlying health concerns. The University of North Carolina’s microbiology lab, for instance, is restricting tests to those showing Covid-19 symptoms, employees and patients who need a test before undergoing surgery. The University of Washington temporarily closed some of its testing sites last week and is giving appointment priority to people with Covid-19 symptoms or a known exposure, amid growing demand, though health experts worry that asymptomatic people might continue to spread the virus if they are unable to access testing. Chicago Public Schools canceled classes again Monday after weekend talks failed to resolve an impasse over Covid-19 safety protocols that has kept students at the nation’s third-largest school system home since last Wednesday.“Bargaining is at a serious stage,” said Chicago Teachers Union President Jesse Sharkey Monday. President Biden last month outlined plans to expand Covid-19 testing sites, and distribute a half-billion free at-home test kits to slow the Omicron surge. The White House has also moved to require large employers to ensure their workforces are vaccinated or regularly test negative for Covid-19, though these measures are facing legal challenges.Germany, meanwhile, said it wants to draw up a list of rapid antigen tests that are particularly good at detecting early Omicron infections, after doubts arose about the sensitivity of some of these tests to the variant.Health Minister Karl Lauterbach said on public television Sunday night that he had asked the Paul Ehrlich Institute, the government’s vaccine agency, to identify those rapid tests that can be relied on to identify Omicron infections early.How soon rapid tests can identify an Omicron infection matters for the future course of the pandemic because of initial evidence that people with the virus might be infectious earlier in the course of their infection than with previous variants, and possibly before some rapid tests are able to detect the virus.

U.S. reports record 1.3M Covid cases in a day as hospitalizations soar - The United States reported 1.34 million Covid cases on Monday, according to an NBC News tally, with the daily case rate shattering global records as hospitalizations soared across the country.At least 1,343,167 new Covid infections were identified Monday, according to the tally, beating the previous record of 1,044,970 cases, set on Jan. 3, by nearly 300,000.Daily case counts are typically high on Mondays because many states do not report the numbers over the weekend. However, the number still suggests a dramatic rise in cases in the U.S. as the highly transmissible omicron variant continues to spread.It also represents the highest daily total recorded for any country, according to Reuters, with the U.S. recording a total of 61,490,917 cases since the pandemic began, as of Monday, according to NBC News' data.The seven-day average for cases in the U.S. also reached its highest point yet Monday, hitting an average of 740,594 cases per day, with 24 states reporting their highest seven-day average ever. The record numbers came as Covid hospitalizations in the U.S. also soared, with the seven-day average for hospitalizations reaching 135,574 on Monday, up 83.1 percent in the last two weeks. The surge in hospitalizations has been particularly noticeable in some Midwestern and mid-Atlantic states, according to an NBC News analysis of U.S. Department of Health and Human Services Covid hospitalizations data. As of Monday, the population-adjusted rate for Washington, D.C., was the highest in the nation, followed by New Jersey, New York and Ohio.Meanwhile, Southern states have seen the largest shift in hospitalizations over the past two weeks, with the seven-day averages for hospitalizations in Louisiana up 341 percent, from 340 to 1,501 over the past two weeks, while Florida has seen its average soar by 277 percent, from 2,426 to 9,169, according to NBC News' tally.

Record-Breaking 1.4 Million New Daily Covid Cases In U.S.; Hospitalizations, Test Positivity Also Hit All-Time Highs -Driven by the Omicron variant, the U.S. saw a record number of new cases, hospitalizations and hit an all-time high test positivity rate today.Johns Hopkins University reported 1,483,656 new daily cases in the country on Tuesday. That’s 300,000-plus cases above the previous high of 1,044,970 cases seen on January 3, just eight days before.The jump is being fueled by a 7-day average test positivity rate that was 26.3% as of Sunday, which is also a record. That number — which is generally considered a better measure of infection spread than cases because it is an average taken over the course of seven days — was up about 25% from the previous week, when it clocked in at 20.9%. The previous all-time high of 23% was seen April 3, 2020.A test positivity rate of 26% means that one in every four Americans is testing positive for the virus. Given that it’s a seven-day average, today’s count could be higher or lower, though a record number of new cases hints at the former.The most recent entry on the CDC Covid hospitalization tracker on January 9 shows 127,963 patients hospitalized with the virus. That tops the previous high of 125,277 Covid hospitalizations set almost exactly a year earlier on January 6, 2021. The New York Times, analyzing data from the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, found an even greater number of hospitalizations due to the virus.NYT:As of Sunday, 142,388 people with the virus were hospitalized nationwide, according to data from the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, surpassing the single-day peak of 142,315 reported on Jan. 14 of last year. The seven-day average of daily hospitalizations was 132,086, an increase of 83 percent from two weeks ago.The number of Americans hospitalized with the virus is likely to grow even higher, however, since hospitalizations are a lagging indicator, meaning they trail peaks in cases by about 2-3 weeks. Deaths lag another 1-2 weeks behind that.So the current hospitalizations are based on infections that happened weeks ago, when test positivity was about 18% and the total number of new daily cases was just under 600,000. The former number is up 44% and the latter about 150% since then.

Omicron variant: U.S. sets fresh records for Covid hospitalizations and cases with 1.5 million new infections - The number of patients with Covid-19 in U.S. hospitals surpassed last winter's peak over the weekend and the country reported another single-day record of nearly 1.5 million new cases on Monday, two grim milestones as the nation's health system grapples with the extremely contagious omicron variant. There were 144,441 Americans hospitalized with the virus as of Sunday, above the prior high mark of 142,315 patients recorded about a year ago on Jan. 14, according to data tracked by the Department of Health and Human Services, and the count has climbed to 147,000 as of Tuesday. The country also reported roughly 1.5 million new cases on Monday, according to data compiled by Johns Hopkins University, pushing the seven-day average to 754,000 new cases per day. To be sure, a large portion of Covid hospitalizations appear to stem from people admitted for other reasons who test positive for the virus once they're in a facility. And while hospitalizations are the highest on record, HHS didn't start collecting the data until August 2020 so it doesn't capture the first early surge of cases that spring. The daily tally of confirmed infections is also likely artificially high since many states report their weekend Covid testing data on Mondays. Miami Mayor Francis Suarez told CNBC's "Squawk on the Street" on Monday that about half of the city's hospitalizations are people hospitalized with Covid as opposed to for Covid, for example, and a Monday press release from the New York state Department of Health reported 42% of the state's hospitalized patients were admitted for something other than Covid. National data isn't available since most states don't track that level of detail in their cases. The number of cases are also likely being undercounted due to the availability of at-home test kits for which results are typically not reported to state or federal agencies. White House chief medical advisor Dr. Anthony Fauci said last week that a growing body of evidence indicates the Covid omicron variant is less severe than the delta strain. More data is needed to confirm that, he said, cautioning that the sheer volume of infections and hospitalized people could still strain hospital systems. "A certain proportion of a large volume of cases, no matter what, are going to be severe," Fauci said. "So don't take this as a signal that we can pull back from the recommendations." Infections are on the rise in nearly every part of the country and average daily case counts are at record highs in 28 states as of Monday. Fifteen states and the District of Columbia are reporting a record level of current hospitalizations, according to a CNBC analysis of HHS data that dates back to the summer of 2020. "There is a lot of infection around the country right now, and, at the end of this, probably 30% to 40% of the U.S. population will have been infected by omicron," former FDA commissioner, Pfizer board member and CNBC contributor Scott Gottlieb, told CNBC's "Squawk Box" on Tuesday.The stress on the health system is compounded by the fact that many hospitals are short-staffed due to labor shortages or health-care workers being forced to quarantine after getting Covid themselves. "The challenge, and this existed going into this surge as well, is staffing," Louisiana State Health Officer Dr. Joseph Kanter said on the program "Full Court Press with Greta Van Susteren" on Sunday. "It's so hard to retain staff for good reasons. It's so hard to recruit new staff," he added. "That's the biggest limiting factor for our hospitals. It's not physical beds, it's not ventilators, it's not PPE right now. It's just keeping enough qualified staff on board."

U.S. hospitalizations surpass last winter’s peak. - The number of Americans hospitalized with Covid-19 has surpassed last winter’s peak, underscoring the severity of the threat the virus continues to pose as the extremely contagious Omicron variant tears through the United States. As of Sunday, 142,388 people with the virus were hospitalized nationwide, according to data from the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, surpassing the single-day peak of 142,315 reported on Jan. 14 of last year. The seven-day average of daily hospitalizations was 132,086, an increase of 83 percent from two weeks ago. The Omicron wave has overwhelmed hospitals and depleted staffs that were already worn out by the Delta variant. It has been driven in large part by people younger than 60. Among people older than 60, daily admissions are still lower than last winter. The hospitalization totals also include people who test positive for the virus incidentally after being admitted for conditions unrelated to Covid-19; there is no national data showing how many people are in that category.As cases soared over the past few weeks to an average of over 737,000 per day, far higher than last winter’s peak, public health officials have argued that caseloads were of limited significance because Omicron is less virulent than Delta and other variants, and that vaccines, and especially boosters, offered protection against severe illness.But the surge’s sheer volume has overwhelmed hospitals across the country. And outside cities like New York, where Omicron hit early and has pushed hospitals to the brink, it is unlikely to have peaked.Current hospitalizations are one of the most reliable measures of the severity of the pandemic over time, because they are not influenced by testing availability or by spikes in minor cases.Dr. Anthony S. Fauci, the country’s top infectious diseases expert,told ABC News last week that it was “much more relevant to focus on the hospitalizations,” which lag behind cases. About a quarter of U.S. hospitals are experiencing critical staffing shortages, according to the Department of Health and Human Services. Some states, like Oregon, have deployed the National Guard to help. Others, like Illinois and Massachusetts, are delaying elective surgeries — meaning surgeries that are scheduled, as opposed to an emergency, a category that can include procedures like a mastectomy for a cancer patient. In some cases, employees with asymptomatic or mildly symptomatic coronavirus infections have been working, potentially putting patients at risk.

Hospitals Are in Serious Trouble - Much of what’s wrong happens invisibly. At first, there’s just a lot of waiting. Emergency rooms get so full that “you’ll wait hours and hours, and you may not be able to get surgery when you need it,” When patients are seen, they might not get the tests they need, because technicians or necessary chemicals are in short supply. Then delay becomes absence. The little acts of compassion that make hospital stays tolerable disappear. Next go the acts of necessity that make stays survivable. Nurses might be so swamped that they can’t check whether a patient has their pain medications or if a ventilator is working correctly. People who would’ve been fine will get sicker. Eventually, people who would have lived will die. This is not conjecture; it is happening now, across the United States. “It’s not a dramatic Armageddon; it happens inch by inch,” In this surge, COVID-19 hospitalizations rose slowly at first, from about 40,000 nationally in early November to 65,000 on Christmas. But with the super-transmissible Delta variant joined by the even-more-transmissible Omicron, the hospitalization count has shot up to 110,000 in the two weeks since then. “The volume of people presenting to our emergency rooms is unlike anything I’ve ever seen before,” Kit Delgado, an emergency physician in Pennsylvania, told me. Health-care workers in 11 different states echoed what he said: Already, this surge is pushing their hospitals to the edge. And this is just the beginning. Hospitalizations always lag behind cases by about two weeks, so we’re only starting to see the effects of daily case counts that have tripled in the past 14 days (and are almost certainly underestimates). By the end of the month, according to the CDC’s forecasts, COVID will be sending at least 24,700 and up to 53,700 Americans to the hospital every single day. Omicron is so contagious that it is still flooding hospitals with sick people. And America’s continued inability to control the coronavirus has deflated its health-care system, which can no longer offer the same number of patients the same level of care. Health-care workers have quit their jobs in droves; of those who have stayed, many now can’t work, because they have Omicron breakthrough infections. “In the last two years, I’ve never known as many colleagues who have COVID as I do now,” Amanda Bettencourt, the president-elect of the American Association of Critical-Care Nurses, told me. “The staffing crisis is the worst it has been through the pandemic.” This is why any comparisons between past and present hospitalization numbers are misleading: January 2021’s numbers would crush January 2022’s system because the workforce has been so diminished. Some institutions are now being overwhelmed by a fraction of their earlier patient loads. “I hope no one you know or love gets COVID or needs an emergency room right now, because there’s no room,” Janelle Thomas, an ICU nurse in Maryland, told me. Here, then, is the most important difference about this surge: It comes on the back of all the prior ones. COVID’s burden is additive. It isn’t reflected just in the number of occupied hospital beds, but also in the faltering resolve and thinning ranks of the people who attend those beds. “This just feels like one wave too many,” Ranney said. The health-care system will continue to pay these costs long after COVID hospitalizations fall. Health-care workers will know, but most other people will be oblivious—until they need medical care and can’t get it.

COVID-19 cases in NH hit record high for 5th day— COVID-19 cases in New Hampshire hit a new high Tuesday, the fifth day of reporting in a row in which a new record was set. Health officials said there are 18,079 active cases of COVID-19 in the state, the most ever and nearly three times higher than cases were this time last year. Officials said 30.6% of the newly announced cases were in children under age 18. Current hospitalizations also rose, climbing to 389, 90 less than a month ago, when hospitalizations hit the highest point of the pandemic. Three more deaths were announced. All were people age 60 or older. In addition, two more deaths from December were recently confirmed as related to COVID-19. There have been 2,032 deaths attributed to COVID-19 over the course of the pandemic. The seven-day test positivity rate is also at a record high, at 21.2%.

With a record 9,813 new COVID-19 cases, Utah is limiting eligibility for monoclonal antibody treatments -- Amid record numbers of new COVID-19 cases, Utah health officials on Tuesday drastically limited eligibility requirements to access the state’s dwindling supply of monoclonal antibody treatments and other antiviral drugs that are used to treat patients after they’ve been infected. Given the “extreme scarcity of COVID-19 treatments” due to the rapidly spreading omicron variant, “we are re-evaluating” the risk level a patient needs to qualify for the popular treatments, the Utah Department of Health announced Tuesday in a news statement. A record 9,813 new coronavirus cases were reported in Utah in the past day, the health department announced Tuesday. Monoclonal antibodies, as well as a new Pfizer antiviral drug, have proven successful at reducing coronavirus symptoms if administered shortly after infection. The treatments have been especially popular in areas with low vaccination rates. Utah has long been screening patients for risk factors that make them especially vulnerable to serious COVID-19 symptoms, to ensure the state’s already-limited supply goes to those who stand to benefit most from the treatments. But now, the available supply of such treatments is far less than what it was only a month ago, health officials said last week. That’s in part because, of the three versions of monoclonal antibodies that had been available, only one is effective against the omicron variant. That treatment has been in short supply as the highly-transmissible omicron variant infects more and more high-risk patients. This week, Utah was able to order fewer than 800 courses of monoclonal antibodies and Paxalovid, the new Pfizer antiviral. That’s somewhat more than last week, when the state received fewer than 500 courses — but nowhere near the 1,300 the state was ordering about a month ago.

COVID: Texas sets pandemic record for cases reported in one day — Texas set a new record Wednesday for COVID-19 cases reported in a single day, with 75,817 total new cases. It comes as the state deals with a wave brought on by the fast-spreading omicron variant, according to the state health department.According to the Texas Department of State and Health Services, the state has reported over 300,000 new COVID cases in just the last week alone. That number, according to DSHS, is:

• enough to fill Kyle Field or Darrell K Royal three times
• nearly the entire population of Corpus Christi
• 1% of the entire population of Texas

And with a test positivity rate of more than 35%, DSHS said "COVID has never spread this fast in Texas." There were 136 additional deaths reported and 531 additional patients hospitalized, bringing the total COVID-positive patients to 11,571 in the state, data shows.Multiple counties in North Texas are in the state health department's Trauma Service Area (TSA) E. There are 3,710 COVID patients in TSA E, an increase of 286 from the day before.There are 643 adults in the ICU, with 52 ICU beds available in TSA E.In Tarrant County, the bed occupancy rate is 92%, with 27% of beds occupied by COVID patients, county data shows. The adult ICU occupancy rate for the county is 97%.At John Peter Smith Hospital in Fort Worth, there are 202 COVID-19 patients, an increase of four patients compared to Tuesday.Cook Children's said on Wednesday that they have reached a record number of COVID-19 patients.The region had 147 pediatric COVID-19 patients, which was an increase of 23 from Monday, D-FW Hospital Council CEO and President Stephen Love said.On Tuesday, Love said that hospitals are experiencing an increase in patients with COVID."It is obvious we are surging from Omicron as our numbers are the highest since early September 2021," Love said. "Our number one concern is staffing as our healthcare heroes are fatigued and we need additional staffing for all our patients."Omicron makes up nearly 100% of positive COVID-19 tests that are sequenced at UT Southwestern in Dallas, according to its latest report. To determine a test's specific variant, the sample must be genetically sequenced.The last major surge of cases in Texas, when the delta variant was the dominant strain of COVID, was during August, September and October. Cases dipped to around 3,000 to 4,000 a day in November until the omicron variant started spreading in December in Texas. On Dec. 6, officials announced the first Texan to test positive with the omicron variant was a woman from Harris County. She had not traveled recently when she got it, showing the variant was being spread in the community.

Indiana COVID case count sets record with more than 16,000 --Indiana once more exceeded its record for daily new COVID-19 cases Thursday, adding 16,563 new cases to the official count.All but 40 of the new cases were confirmed Wednesday.Thursday’s daily update, which came after the end of the business day due to a technological glitch, also added 75 deaths to the count. Indiana has now seen a total of 19,393 deaths and more than 1.4 million cases since the start of the pandemic nearly two years ago.One slight glimmer of hope in Thursday’s update: The number of people hospitalized across the state for COVID-19, which hit a record high on Tuesday, dipped slightly from that peak of 3,488 to 3,451.'Everyone is so tired': Inside IU Health Methodist as it is overwhelmed by COVID patientsThursday’s update also painted a picture of how rapidly the omicron variant can spread in a population. As of the middle of December, omicron was response for less than 20% of the cases in the state. Two weeks later, the most recent date for which data is available, it had caused more than 82% of the cases.While omicron is thought to cause less severe disease than some its predecessors, it also able to evade the vaccine more successfully.Just over 4% of all fully vaccinated individuals have experienced a breakthrough case of COVID-19, according to the state’s vaccine dashboard. However, those who are vaccinated are far less likely to require hospitalization and die than those who are unvaccinated.According to the most recent data from the state, at the end of December, the unvaccinated population was seeing more than 267 cases per 100,000 population while the case rate for the vaccinated population was just under 62 cases per 100,000 population.

NC blasts through records for daily COVID cases, hospitalizations set a year ago -Wednesday marked one year since North Carolina's peak of COVID-19 cases, a record we have since shattered due to the omicron variant. On Jan. 12, 2021, the seven-day, rolling average of new cases was 8,781. A year later, it is about triple that as the omicron variant quickly spreads through the population.On Wednesday, 4,098 people in hospitals statewide had the coronavirus. The previous record was set on Jan. 13, 2021, at 3,992.

• 4,098: People in NC hospitals with COVID-19 on Jan. 12, 2022
• 430: COVID patients on ventilators statewide on Jan. 11, 2022
• 240: Available hospital beds across Wake, Johnston, Franklin, Lee and Harnett counties on Jan. 11, 2022
• 25,445: New cases of COVID-19 reported in North Carolina on Jan. 12, 2022.
• 6,978: New cases of COVID-19 reported in North Carolina on Jan. 12, 2021.
• 23,203: Rolling, seven-day average of new cases of COVID reported in North Carolina on Jan. 11, 2022
• 8,781: Rolling, seven-day average of new cases of COVID reported in North Carolina on Jan. 12, 2021
• 752,387: Cases of COVID reported across the United States on Jan. 11, 2022
• Jan. 8, 2022: 29,069 new cases reported in North Carolina
• 1.9 million: COVID cases to date in North Carolina
• 19,706: Deaths in North Carolina from coronavirus
• 9: Rank of North Carolina among states with greatest number of reported cases
• 15: Rank of North Carolina among states by number of coronavirus deaths
• 59%: Population of North Carolina with either two shots of Pfizer or Moderna or one shot of Johnson & Johnson vaccine.

Jan. 14 Arizona COVID-19 update: 20,257 new cases, 66 new deaths - COVID-19 cases in Arizona are at their highest level of the entire pandemic because of the spread of the highly contagious omicron variant, and hospitals remain heavily burdened with high patient loads and staff shortages. On Friday, Arizona reported 20,257 new COVID-19 cases and 66 new known deaths. The case count is a new pandemic record for daily reporting. And more people tested positive for COVID-19 in Arizona on Jan. 5 than any day previously during the pandemic, according to statedata, with over 19,300 individuals testing positive that day. COVID-19 and other hospitalizations have remained high in recent weeks, with some hospitals operating near or over capacity. Emergency room visits from patients with confirmed or suspected COVID-19 spiked on Tuesday to a new pandemic-record high of 2,589 visits statewide and remained at a high 2,336 visits on Thursday. On Thursday, 2,932 patients were hospitalized across Arizona for known or suspected COVID-19, and just 75 ICU beds were available across the state. Hospital metrics were generally up from last week, state data shows. The total of known deaths in the state was 25,068 as of Friday. The state surpassed 25,000 deaths on Jan. 13, 16 days after it reached 24,000 deaths on Dec. 28, which had come 17 days after it passed 23,000 deaths. Arizona's seven-day COVID-19 death rate per 100,000 people ranked 11th in the nation out of all states and territories as of Thursday, after ranking first and second last month, according to data from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. The state's overall pandemic death rate ranks third highest nationwide. There had been 109,516 confirmed vaccine breakthrough cases among the more than 3.9 million fully vaccinated people in Arizona, as of Jan. 3. Of those cases, 852 have involved deaths, according to preliminary data from the state, which works out to a breakthrough death rate among fully vaccinated people of about 0.02%. State data shows that unvaccinated people in Arizona had a 4.9 times greater risk of testing positive for COVID-19 and 31.1 times greater risk of dying from COVID-19 in November compared with fully vaccinated people. The Arizona data dashboard shows 95% of all ICU beds and 95% of all inpatient beds in the state were in use on Thursday, with 38% of ICU beds and 33% of non-ICU beds occupied by COVID-19 patients. Cases by county: 995,019 in Maricopa; 194,215 in Pima; 99,389 in Pinal; 48,145 in Yuma; 43,446 in Mohave; 39,143 in Yavapai; 33,319 in Coconino; 30,211 in Navajo; 22,285 in Cochise; 17,663 in Apache; 13,350 in Gila; 11,796 in Santa Cruz; 9,532 in Graham; 3,996 in La Paz; and 1,682 in Greenlee, according to state numbers.

Ohio reports multiday backlog of COVID tests with 'tens of thousands' of results pending - — Ohio's state health department says the state has reached its COVID test processing capacity, resulting in a multiple-day backlog of tens of thousands of results. The Ohio Department of Health warned the backlog will create "inflated" new case numbers over the next few days. Positive cases will be attributed to their proper illness onset date, the department said. On Wednesday, ODH reported 41,455 new COVID-19 cases, 472 additional hospitalizations, and 487 more deaths. There have been 2,307,691 cases, 101,695 hospitalizations, and 30,922 deaths in Ohio since the start of the pandemic. As of Jan. 14, 1,092,104 Ohioans have recovered from COVID-19, the state health department says. Recovered is categorized as cases with a symptom onset date of over 21 days who have not died. 60.68% of Ohioans have received at least their first dose as of Jan. 14. 55.71% are fully vaccinated. Over 3,032,896 additional shots have been administered.

Ohio reports huge spike in COVID-19 cases: Here’s why (WJW)– The Ohio Department of Health released the latest COVID-19 numbers for the state Friday afternoon with a large surge in cases. In the last 24 hours, 41,455 COVID cases, 472 hospitalizations, 36 intensive care unit admissions and 487 deaths were reported to the state health department. That’s up significantly from the 21-day average of 18,890 cases, 348 hospitalizations and 105 deaths. Other states do not send death certificates to the Ohio Department of Health’s Bureau of Vital Statistics on a regular schedule, which results in fluctuations in morbidity data. The Ohio Department of Health said the state is experiencing a backlog in processing positive test results because of the high volume of cases being reported amid the current surge. “As a result of enhancement to expand the state system’s capacity to process a higher volume of automated lab results, a significant increase in cases will appear on the ‘current trends’ dashboard beginning today for the next several days until the backlog clears. Cases will be attributed to their proper illness onset date on the overview dashboard, which shows true spread of COVID-19 in Ohio,” the health department said. Some COVID patients still infectious after more than 2 months, study warns The state is seeing about 30% positivity in lab-confirmed tests. There have been more than 220,000 cases, 2,615 hospitalizations and 289 deaths reported in Ohio since Jan. 1. More than 6.5 million Ohioans are fully vaccinated for COVID, which is about 56% of the state’s population. Of the people hospitalized with COVID in Ohio since Jan. 1, 2021, 53,699 were not fully vaccinated and 3,209 were.

Southern US hospitals grapple with staff shortages amid record Covid cases - As the Omicron variant rips through the US, states in the south continue to report record case numbers amid serious concern around hospital staff shortages.In Mississippi, officials warned this week the hospital system was on the verge of crisis due to staff shortages as local media reported most hospitals in the state were at or had reached capacity during the Omicron surge.The state already faces a chronic nursing shortage, exacerbated by the pandemic, with approximately 3,000 positions vacant, according to a survey by the Mississippi Hospital Association. About a third of the state’s hospital nurses have left for other jobs, according to the research, many of them to better paying positions out of state.Last week Mississippi recorded its highest seven day average of new Covid cases, 7,185, since the pandemic began, according to state health department data. As of Thursday the number of people hospitalized with Covid in the state had risen to 1,332 people. Health department data showed that 90% of Covid deaths for the period between 16 December 2021 and 12 January 2022 had been among unvaccinated people. “The game has changed since the Delta wave,” said Dr Alan Jones, chancellor of clinical affairs at University of Mississippi Medical Center, the state’s largest hospital, during a Tuesday press conference reported by Mississippi Today.Jones continued: “The challenges we are facing are really around staffing. Compounding that is that this is a much more infectious variant, taking more staff out that we have in the workforce.”Covid vaccination rates in Mississippi remain among the lowest in the country and well below the national average, with just 49% of the population fully vaccinated.In neighboring Tennessee hospital officials also issued cautions over staff shortages due to infection with the now dominant Omicron variant.In Nashville, one of the city’s largest hospitals was being forced to reassign specialist staff to cope with the Omicron surge. As of Tuesday, Tennessee hit its peak Covid positive seven day average of 14,345 new cases, according to CDC data.“We have tons of employees that have Omicron Covid,” said Dr Todd Rice, associate professor of medicine at Vanderbilt University Medical Center, in an interview with local radio. “They may not be that sick, but they are infected. So, they are quarantined at home and not eligible to work.”Rice added: “One of our biggest problems is just finding employees to take care of patients because we have so many employees that are out sick.”

Covid Deaths Begin To Rise In Los Angeles; Wave Believed Tied To Beginning Of December Omicron Case Surge -- Los Angeles Public Health officials reported a total of 39 deaths today, the highest number ofCovid-related new deaths since September 22nd. The deaths are likely the result of the rise in case and hospitalization numbers in December, according to officials. Deaths related to the impact of the more recent record number of cases in the county will not show up for weeks, given that it is a lagging indicator.The 36 deaths may not sound like much, but it is more than double the 15, 16, and 13 deaths the county has most recently recorded. Most of those who died were over the age of 65 with underlying conditions. To date, the total number of deaths in L.A. related to the pandemic is 27,850.The number of new cases reported today was 40,452, up from 34,827 yesterday. The 7-day test positivity continues to fall from a high of near 23% on January 2 to a still-extraordinarily high 20.3% today.Hospitalizations tied to the December wave began to rise in late December. In the seven days leading up to December 29, the number of Covid-related hospitalizations rose 75% to 1,367. The number has continued to rise as a result of recent record numbers of cases, with 3,912 Covid-infected people currently reported hospitalized. While today’s number of hospitalizations is a high for the Omicron surge, it is so far about half that seen in last winter’s surge.

 Omicron cases are less severe, hospital stays shorter than delta at large California health system - Patients at a large health system in Southern California who had the Covid omicron variant were much less likely to need hospitalization, intensive care or die than people infected with the delta strain, a study found this week. Infectious disease experts found omicron patients at Kaiser Permanente Southern California were 74% less likely to end up in ICUs and 91% less likely to die than delta patients. None of the patients with omicron required mechanical ventilation, according to the study. What's more, the risk of hospitalization was 52% lower in omicron patients than delta sufferers, according to the study, which has not been peer reviewed. Researchers are publishing studies before they are reviewed by other experts due to the urgency of the pandemic. Hospital stays for patients with omicron were also about three days shorter than their delta counterparts. Unvaccinated patients were also less likely to develop severe disease, according to the data. "Reductions in disease severity associated with omicron variant infections were evident among both vaccinated and unvaccinated patients, and among those with or without documented prior SARS-CoV-2 infection," the team of researchers found. Kaiser Permanente Southern California provides care to more than 4.7 million people. The study analyzed more than 52,000 omicron cases and nearly 17,000 delta cases. The large U.S. study adds to a growing body of data from the United Kingdom and South Africa indicating that the omicron variant, while more contagious, doesn't make people as sick as the delta variant.

 Omicron: Rise in U.S. hospitalizations 'quite frightening,' doctor says -COVID-related hospitalizations in the U.S. reached new highs over the past two weeks as the omicron variant continues sweeping through the nation.Hospitalizations generally lag confirmed case counts by a couple of weeks. The hospitalization data from the Omicron wave may be inflated by so-called "incidental patients" — those who were hospitalized for something other than COVID-19 and test positive while admitted — but that is largely irrelevant if hospitals are overwhelmed.“Remember that cases are the first to happen, and hospitalizations happened a few weeks later,” Dr. Adam Brown, an emergency room physician and COVID-19 National Task Force Chair, said on Yahoo Finance Live (video above). “I expect to see that number continuing to rise over the next couple of weeks, which is frankly quite frightening. So we need to do a number of things in our communities, especially where the virus is spreading significantly, to reduce transmission.”Communities have re-implemented mask mandates while many schools are shifting backto remote or hybrid learning to contain the spread of the virus. “I don’t suggest throwing our hands upright yet,” Brown said. “But it’s complicated. What I will say is that any time there is a public health type of emergency or long-standing crisis like we have had, there is not going to be a silver bullet. There has to be a multi-pronged approach. So we need to implement those pieces of the puzzle where we can while we’re waiting for other things to come in supply.”The rise in hospitalizations is troubling for several reasons.The surge indicates that there’s still a significant portion of the population — mostly unvaccinated — that is being severely impacted by the highly transmissible Omicron strain. According to the CDC, unvaccinated individuals are 20 times as likely to die from the virus. And with an influx of patients surging into ERs and intensive care units, it puts a strain on already overwhelmed hospital systems, many of which are concurrently dealing with staff shortages related to their own employees contracting COVID.

Florida becomes third state to pass 5 million coronavirus cases — Florida became the third state in the nation to pass 5 million cases Saturday, taking 18 days to add more than one million with the daily increase 49,339 posted Saturday by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. The death toll is at 63,090. Since the first two deaths were announced on March 6, 2020, the cumulative toll has grown to 5,041,918. It took 131 days to pass 4 million on Dec. 28, 145 days to pass 3 million on Aug. 19, 106 days to pass 2 million on March 27, 276 days to pass 1 million on Dec. 2, 2020. Florida is third in cases behind California with 6,416,171 and Texas with 5,472,025. New York is fourth with 4,456,080.In one week, Florida gained 429,311 cases, a rise of 7.7% in one week, according to the weekly report from the Florida Department of Health announced Friday. Florida's record for cases was 77,097 and reported Sunday, only the third time it was more than 70,000. Since the record, infections have been on a downward trend to 49,462, 47,699, 71,746, 55,573, 590,061. Before the omicron variant emerged, the record was 27,664 amid the delta strain. Florida 409,977 cases in the past week are third behind California's 841,593 and New York's 435,084, including 228,098 in the city and 206,986 elsewhere. Illinois is fourth with 227,203, Pennsylvania fifth with 194,782.

With world’s highest COVID-19 death rate, Peru confronts third wave of pandemic --With the spread of the Omicron variant out of control, the continuation of the pro-big business policies of his predecessors by President Pedro Castillo has left Peru open to a devastating third wave of the COVID-19 pandemic. Peru has now recorded more than 70,000 new cases in a single week, surpassing the peaks set in the deadly first and second waves of the pandemic, which claimed over 200,000 lives, inflicting the highest death rate of any country in the world. With a population of 33.6 million people, Peru has recorded 2,358,685 cases and 203,019 deaths. This represents 6,030 deaths per million inhabitants, as compared to 2,575 per million in the United States, which has the largest number of deaths in absolute terms. The tragic death toll has also resulted in Peru being the country with the largest number of children orphaned by the pandemic, nearly 100,000. Peru’s Deputy Health Minister Augusto Tarazona told RPP News that with the current uncontrolled spread of the virus, within three weeks the country will face some 150,000 new cases per week which “will put us in a very difficult situation.” Stating the obvious, he added, “Having in a few days hundreds of thousands of cases will definitely negatively affect the health services.” During the first half of December, the country was recording just 12,000 new cases a week. “It isn’t a curve, it’s a straight vertical line heading up,” the Peruvian health official warned. The Peruvian Health Ministry announced on December 19 that it had detected four cases of Omicron in the country. Now the variant accounts for 82 percent of the new infections in Lima. While the first cases were detected in upper class and upper middle class districts such as Miraflores, San Isidro and La Molina, indicating their likely origin among Peruvians traveling abroad, the variant quickly spread to the impoverished and working class districts, including those populated with migrants from the interior of the country, such as San Martin de Porres and San Juan de Lurigancho, and onward into the country’s provinces. The government of President Castillo has pursued a vaccination-only strategy, failing to implement any contact tracing program. Peru has one of the highest vaccination rates in Latin America—87 percent for those over 69, and 80 percent for the adult population as a whole with two doses. This is due in part to government mandates of vaccinations for entering workplaces or public enclosed spaces but even more so to the demand for vaccines from a population that went through the horrific toll of death and disease during the first waves of the pandemic.

Omicron variant drives COVID surge to record levels in the Philippines - The Philippines is in the grip of a record-setting spread of COVID-19, driven by the Omicron variant. The administration of President Rodrigo Duterte has responded with half-measures and threats of repression. In total, 52,293 people have died of COVID in the Philippines since the beginning of the pandemic. The country had 33,169 new confirmed cases on January 10, setting a record tally for the third straight day, with a startling 46 percent positivity rate. The National Capital Region (NCR) had a positivity rate of 52 percent. The World Health Organization (WHO) threshold for the controlled transmission of SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19, is 5 percent positivity. The Philippines was below this figure in December. Health Secretary Francisco Duque stated at a press briefing Monday night that the country was at a “critical risk” of COVID-19 transmission, reporting a 690 percent increase in the seven-day average of daily cases. Duque declared that Omicron had become the dominant variant in the Philippines. As of January 3, 60 percent of all sequenced samples of COVID-19 were of the Omicron variant. The Omicron fueled surge began less than two weeks ago. Hospitals are already inadequately staffed, a combination of an influx of cases and the large number of infected and quarantined medical personnel. The Philippine General Hospital, the largest state-run medical facility, is nearly at full capacity. A number of major nationwide banks have announced that they are shortening their business hours, ostensibly to curb the spread of the pandemic but almost certainly as a result of understaffing. CNN suspended broadcast on Monday as it was no longer able to staff its broadcast center. Presidential spokesperson Karlo Nograles announced that the NCR would remain at Alert Level 3 and would not advance to Level 4. Alert Level 3 allows for continued outdoor dining at 50 percent capacity and indoor dining at 30 percent provided the patrons are fully vaccinated. Alert Level 4 would shut down malls and other non-essential indoor centers and restrict those under the age of 18 and over 65 to their homes. The Department of Health authorized hospitals to shorten the quarantine protocols for fully vaccinated healthcare workers who contracted or were exposed to COVID-19. Hospitals “in extreme circumstances of manpower shortage” were authorized to reduce healthcare workers’ isolation period to five days. It is highly likely that any healthcare worker forced back to work at the end of five days will still be infectious and will possibly still be suffering from symptoms.

Australia records eighth-highest weekly COVID-19 infection total globally - Yesterday, the total number of COVID-19 infections officially reported in Australia since the beginning of the pandemic surged past the one million mark. More than half were recorded in the preceding week. In other words, more infections were recorded in the last seven days than in the 707 days since the country’s first case. While the emergence of the highly transmissible Omicron variant has accelerated infection numbers around the world, the shift has been most pronounced in Australia. Previously heralded as a relative COVID-19 “success story,” Australia has in the past week recorded more infections than all but seven countries worldwide. The numbers everywhere are a significant underestimation of the real spread of infection, but the comparison does provide an indication of the massive surge in Australia. In per capita terms, the only countries with more than one million inhabitants and a higher reported infection rate than Australia are Ireland, France, Cyprus, Greece, Denmark and Portugal. Of these, only Ireland and Cyprus have a more rapidly increasing rate of COVID-19 deaths. This transformation is the direct result of the open adoption by the Australian ruling class of the murderous program of “herd immunity.” While the profit-driven transition, led by the Labor-dominated “National Cabinet,” to “living with the virus” began during last year’s Delta wave, the arrival of Omicron in late November was the key turning point. Across Australia, more than 90,000 infections were reported today, a vast underestimation of the real total, as both polymerase chain reaction (PCR) and rapid antigen tests (RATs) remain difficult to access, and not all states and territories include RAT results in official figures. More than 3,800 Australians are currently hospitalised for COVID-19, with 341 in intensive care and 92 on ventilators. New South Wales (NSW) remains the worst-affected, with 2,186 people hospitalised. Victorian Premier Daniel Andrews reported this morning that at least 4,500 health care workers in the state are infected with COVID-19 or in isolation. Twenty-seven deaths were reported in Australia today, 13 in Victoria, 11 in NSW and 1 each in Queensland, South Australia and the Australian Capital Territory. Nine of those who died in NSW had received at least two doses of COVID-19 vaccine. The surge of infections is throwing virtually every industry into chaos. Goldman Sachs estimated yesterday that between 24 and 76 million work hours will be lost this month to COVID-19 illness and isolation. Virgin Australia announced yesterday that it had been forced to cancel 25 percent of scheduled flights in January and February due to staff shortages caused by COVID-19 infection and exposure, as well as booking cancellations by would-be passengers concerned over the rapidly spreading virus. Woolworths CEO Brad Banducci warned yesterday that customers could expect to see bare supermarket shelves for at least another two weeks. He told the Australian Broadcasting Corporation’s (ABC’s) Radio National “Breakfast” program, “between 20 and in some cases 40 percent” of the company’s distribution centre workers were infected with COVID-19 or in isolation. Australia’s other major supermarket chain, Coles, faces a similar situation, with 30–35 percent of warehouse workers and 10 percent of retail workers off due to the virus. The crisis is affecting the whole supply chain, with trucking companies reporting up to 50 percent of drivers unable to work. According to the Australian Dairy Products Federation, up to 40 percent of dairy workers are sick or in isolation.

France reports new Covid infection record with omicron spreading - France saw its Covid-19 infection rate hit a new record on Tuesday as the new highly-contagious omicron variant sweeps across the European continent. The figure of 368,149 in the last 24 hours trumps a previous record of 332,252 set on Jan. 5. Its seven-day moving average of cases was nearly 270,000 on Monday, according to Our World in Data, significantly above tallies in neighboring nations like the U.K. France is about to implement a strict Covid passport system whereby citizens will need to be vaccinated before they can enter restaurant or indoor events, rather than being either vaccinated or registering a negative test. President Emmanuel Macron sparked controversy last week after saying he would make life difficult for those citizens who refuse a Covid-19 vaccine. "I am not for bothering the French. I rant all day at the administration when it blocks them. Well, there, the unvaccinated, I really want to hassle them. And so, we will continue to do it, until the end," the French leader said in an interview with Le Parisien. His comments coincided with parliamentary discussions over the Covid passes. Macron used the French word "emmerder" in his interview with Le Parisien, which can be roughly translated as "hassle" or "annoy," or would be close to the phrase "piss off." More than 50% of Europe's population will be infected with the omicron Covid-19 variant over the next two months, according to forecasts shared by a top World Health Organization official.Dr. Hans Kluge, the WHO's regional director for Europe, cited data from the Seattle-based Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at a news briefing Tuesday, saying a new "West to East tidal wave" of omicron infections was sweeping across the region, on top of the previous delta variant which is still prevalent.

Mexico Breaks Daily Covid Record With Over 30,000 New Cases -Mexico broke its record for daily Covid-19 infections, reporting 30,671 cases on Saturday as the omicron variant continues to spread. Deaths rose 202 to 300,303, while total registered cases reached 4.1 million. The country’s low testing levels means the real number of cases is likely much higher.    Mexican authorities, including President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador and Deputy Health Minister Hugo Lopez-Gatell, have said repeatedly that omicron is not as severe as previous variants and there hasn’t been a significant increase in hospitalizations or deaths.   Apart from Mexico City, some of the hot spots for infections are states with beach resorts like Quintana Roo, where Cancun is located, and Baja California.   Mexico is expected to increase vaccinations in the next few days with teachers scheduled to receive their booster shots starting Jan. 8. Pre-registration for a third dose is also open for people 40 and over. Currently, everyone over the age of 60 and health-care workers are eligible for a booster shot in the country.

Omicron breaking through HK’s ‘zero Covid’ defenses – Tough new containment measures to stop the spread of the Omicron variant have Hong Kong businesses up in arms just weeks ahead of the normally festive and lucrative Chinese New Year season. Restaurant operators and the owners of 15 types of venues including bars and beauty parlors have all complained about the Hong Kong government’s latest decision to tighten social distancing rules for at least 14 days to contain a rash of Omicron cases. Restaurant owners said that after the government announced a ban on dine-in services after 6pm, many customers had canceled their bookings for Chinese New Year, a traditional high season. They said they faced losing as much as 40% of their revenue if the rules were extended to 28 days. The operators of beauty and massage parlors, which will be closed for two weeks, said it was unfair that they were targeted first whenever there were virus outbreaks. Health officials said the government hopes to break transmission chains quickly and control the situation within two weeks so businesses can resume normal operations during the Chinese New Year holiday. That may or may not happen. Reports indicate the city’s health care system is already near its capacity to handle Covid-19 cases. Hong Kong hospitals were treating more than 340 Covid cases — mostly returning travelers — mainly in North Lantau Hospital near the airport, according to Tony Ko, chief executive of the Hospital Authority which manages public hospitals told reporters. Ko said at a media briefing on Wednesday that the hospital would run out of space in four or five days if it continued to receive 40 to 50 new cases a day. To cope with the emergency, the government has opened facilities at the AsiaWorld-Expo convention center which has 500 beds, according to news reports.

Thailand prepares 150,000 hospital beds in anticipation of Omicron surge --Infections caused by the Omicron variant of coronavirus are rising, in line with earlier predictions by health authorities who anticipated that the peak number of daily new cases in this wave of outbreaks may reach as high as 30,000 in the worst-case scenario. Meanwhile, there are now slightly more than 150,000 beds available at healthcare facilities nationwide.Based on data from the Ministry of Public Health, there were a total of 178,139 patient beds as of December 27. 13.7% or 24,372 of the beds were occupied, leaving 153,767 available. Beds are classified into 3 categories. There are 4,955 Tier 3 or ‘Red’ beds for critical patients, 60,928 Tier 2 or ‘Yellow’ beds for patients with moderate symptoms and those deemed especially vulnerable to Covid, and 112,256 Tier 1 or ‘Green’ beds for patients with mild symptoms. Authorities have indicated that the number of beds for Covid patients can be increased quickly if needed; the bed number had previously reached 200,000 at the peak of the previous wave.For patients with mild or no symptoms, the Ministry of Public Health will generally prescribe home isolation and provide the patients with medicines to keep them from developing severesymptoms. In Bangkok, a total of 25,345 beds have been prepared to accommodate patients who are unfit for home isolation. For the transportation of Covid patients, Bangkok City Hall’s Erawan ambulance service may be reached at hotline number 1669. Health authorities have been urging people to get a third injection of the Covid vaccine 3-6 months after their second shot, to keep them from developing severe symptoms in the event of having contracted the coronavirus. Authorities also believe the booster dose is key to curbing the number of new infections. People in Bangkok can reserve their booster shots via the QueQ mobile application. (NNT)

UK first European country to record 150,000 official COVID deaths - Calling for the UK’s self-isolation period for those infected with COVID to be reduced to five days, UK Education Secretary Nadhim Zahawi declared Sunday, “I hope we will be one of the first major economies to demonstrate to the world how you transition from pandemic to endemic, and then deal with this however long it remains with us, whether that’s five, six, seven, 10 years.” Zahawi’s comments came one day after the UK became the first country in Europe and the seventh in the world to reach the horrific milestone of 150,000 deaths from COVID-19. Only the US, Brazil, India, Russia, Mexico and Peru have recorded more deaths. The UK has a population of just 68.4 million. Except Peru, other countries recording more deaths than Britain all have substantially larger populations. The deaths are the responsibility of the Conservative government and the outcome of a murderous herd immunity agenda, aimed from the start of the pandemic at the mass infection of the population. The move to reduce the self-isolation period, already cut from 10 days to seven, is criminal, given that the UK Health Security Agency, which is still in favour of the reduction, admitted that between 10 and 30 percent of people are still infectious on day six. The government openly declared that herd immunity was “desirable” when the pandemic first hit, only imposing a national lockdown in late March 2020, weeks after the virus had been circulating within the population, under mass pressure. After reopening the economy in late spring-early summer 2020, more deaths piled up in the second wave of the pandemic. Prime Minister Boris Johnson made his infamous statement in late October 2020, “No more f**king lockdowns, let the bodies pile up in their thousands”. The premature end of the first lockdown and the delayed and even more limited character of the second led to many more deaths in January and February 2021 than at any other stage in the pandemic. At the end of July last year, Johnson declared “Freedom Day” with the economy and schools opened. The then dominant Delta variant was allowed to continue its spread unhindered with the government declaring the UK aimed to be the first country in the world where COVID was endemic in the population. The vast majority of the 150,000 official deaths are attributable to previous variants of the disease. It is not clear exactly how many deaths can be attributed to the new Omicron variant since it became dominant in Britain last month. However, since Omicron was first detected in Britain on November 27 a further 5,230 people have died from COVID. The Johnson government’s COVID death tally is highly manipulated, with deaths recorded only if they take place within 28 days of the person recording a positive test. According to the Office for National Statistics, the number of death certificates in the UK that mention COVID-19 now exceeds 174,000.

Record number of children admitted to hospital in a single day - A record number of children in England were admitted to hospital with COVID on 3 January, according to government data. Some 157 children were admitted on the Bank Holiday Monday, 110 of whom were aged 5 or younger. The figure surpasses the previous record on 145 admissions on 28 December. In the last seven days, a total of 567 children have been admitted to hospital with COVID. Professor Deepti Gurdasani, a senior lecturer and epidemiologist at Queen Mary University of London, wrote on Twitter: "I really can't understand the lack of attention and discussion of this. "Shouldn't there be urgent focus on trying to understand what's going on here?" "570 0-5 year-olds being hospitalised with COVID-19 [in just a week] and rapidly rising isn't ok." The COVID case rate among young children is the highest recorded so far during the pandemic, with infections rising rapidly among 0-4 year-olds. Cases have dropped among school-age children over the Christmas holidays, but are expected to rise again as children return to the classroom.

 WHO says omicron cases are 'off the charts' as global infections set new records - A record 15 million new Covid-19 infections were reported across the globe in a single week as omicron rapidly replaces delta as the dominant variant across the globe, and "we know this is an underestimate," World Health Organization Director-General Dr. Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus told reporters at a press briefing Wednesday. "The sheer volume of cases is putting a burden on health-care systems," said Maria Van Kerkhove, WHO's technical lead on Covid-19. "Even though omicron is less severe than delta, it is still putting people in the hospital. It is still putting people into ICU and needing advanced clinical care. It is still killing people." The U.S. saw the biggest jump in cases with 4.6 million new infections reported for the week through Sunday, a 73% increase over the prior week, compared to a 55% global increase in cases over the same period, according to a the WHO's weekly epidemiology report published Tuesday. Tedros noted that hospitalizations are not quite as high as seen in previous surges, possibly due to decreased severity of omicron compared to delta and widespread immunity from vaccines and prior infection. But, he added, the death rate is still unsustainably high, with an average of about 48,000 deaths per week, which hasn't fluctuated much since October, Tedros said. "We're seeing omicron out-compete delta in many populations," Van Kerkhove said. While delta cases similarly peaked in a few months, it didn't take over the globe as quickly nor were the cases as high as omicron. "This is off the charts," she said. Among more than 357,000 cases sequenced in the last 30 days, nearly 59% were omicron, the WHO said in the epidemiological report. The WHO, the United Nations' health organization, cautioned that the data may not fully show how far omicron has spread due to reporting delays and limits sequencing in some countries. According to the report, omicron has a shorter doubling time than other variants, meaning the number of days it takes for cases to double, and it can more readily evade prior immunity, allowing it an advantage over other variants. While omicron has appeared to rip through populations where it was detected early and then drop down to lower levels, Van Kerkhove said delta had a similar trajectory at its height, but never peaked at such levels as omicron. But, she emphasized, the direction of omicron can still be influenced by the world's actions, including vaccination and taking steps to minimize spread. "There is no inevitability about this virus and how it circulates," she said. "We have control, some measure of control, in terms of limiting its spread with tools that we have access to: masks, distancing, ventilation, avoiding crowds."

Dirty city air killed more than 1.8 million people globally in 2019A new modeling study found that 86% of people living in cities throughout the world – a total of 2.5 billion people – are exposed to fine particulate matter at levels that exceed the World Health Organization's 2005 guidelines. In 2019, this urban air pollution led to 1.8 million excess deaths, according to the study published Jan. 5 in The Lancet Planetary Health journal. PM2.5, a fine particulate matter with a diameter of 2.5 micrometers or less, is the leading environmental risk factor for disease. Inhaling this increases the risk of premature death from cardiovascular disease, respiratory disease, lung cancer and lower respiratory infection, researchers say in background notes." "The majority of the world's urban population still live in areas with unhealthy levels of PM2.5," The new study expands on PM2.5 research in megacities, including 13,000 cities globally between 2000 and 2019. Investigators found that average population-weighted PM2.5 concentration across all urban areas globally was 35 micrograms per cubic meter in 2019, with no change from 2000 and equivalent to seven times 2021 WHO guidelines. The team estimated that 61 in every 100,000 deaths in urban areas was attributable to PM2.5 in 2019. Southeast Asia saw a 27% increase in average population-weighted PM2.5 concentration between 2000-2019. Deaths attributed to PM2.5 increased by 33% over those years, from 63 to 84 in 100,000 people. African cities had an 18% decrease in PM2.5 concentrations, European cities had a 21% decrease and North and South American cities had 29% decreases. This, however, did not correspond to the same level of decreases in PM2.5-attributable death rates on their own. This means that other demographic factors, such as an aging population and poor general health, are influential drivers of pollution-related death rates, the authors said. This study did not assess other health burdens attributable to PM2.5, including low birth weight, premature birth and cognitive impairment.

China, Philippines halt Canadian beef imports after discovery of 'atypical' BSE case - China has suspended imports of Canadian beef following the discovery of an atypical case of BSE, or mad cow disease, on an Alberta farm last month. The Chinese market is the Canadian beef industry's third-largest export market, worth approximately $170 million annually. The Philippines and South Korea have also halted imports of Canadian beef based on the discovery of the case. The detection of the atypical case is Canada's first case of bovine spongiform encephalopathy in six years. It has been reported six times in the U.S., most recently in 2018. Unlike the classic BSE strain, atypical BSE poses no health risk to humans and is not transmissible. Dennis Laycraft, executive director of the Canadian Cattlemen's Association, says he expects the border closures to be temporary, ideally resolving within days or weeks.

Video: Aerial Detectives Dive Deep Into North Carolina’s Hog and Poultry Waste Problem - For years, Larry Baldwin and Rick Dove, his colleague at the Waterkeeper Alliance, an international nonprofit focused on clean water, have been undertaking airborne sorties in privately chartered planes to document hog and poultry waste leaking into watersheds. Baldwin’s mission was to fly over eastern North Carolina—host to an increasing number of industrial-scale hog and poultry barns, often crowded right next to one another, to collect evidence of the waste being discharged into nearby creeks and waterways, which could threaten neighboring communities with air and water contamination.Baldwin would snap pictures to supplement ongoing investigations into livestock operations he suspected were illegally contaminating water with waste from open pits of hog feces and urine. “These Concentrated Animal Feeding Operations, or CAFOs, are spread over large areas, mostly in rural North Carolina, and it’s not easy to discover a violation from the road,” Baldwin said. “That is why we have to get into these small planes to see from above if a swine or poultry facility is committing a violation.”Flights, Baldwin said, are the best way to compile evidence of violations and potentially illegal waste management practices by CAFO operators, he said, as well as monitor the increasing proliferation of large-scale hog and poultry operations into areas with low-income communities of color.“The most typical pollutants found in air surrounding CAFOs are ammonia, hydrogen sulfide, methane, and particulate matter,” according to a report from the National Association of Local Boards of Health, “all of which have varying human health risks.”A recent study by the National Academy of Sciences attributed 95 premature deaths annually in North Carolina’s Sampson County, and 83 such deaths in its Duplin County, to the fine particulate air pollution caused, in part, by ammonia emissions from hog operations. Minority neighborhoods in the state are disproportionately impacted by hog farm pollution and face myriad health problems from the pollution, including anemia, infant deaths, kidney disease and septicemia, according to research from Duke University. Civil rights activists have for years pointed out long-standing environmental issues related to the continued usage of lagoon and sprayfield systems, an outdated waste management practice in which untreated hog urine and feces are stored in giant, open lagoons and periodically sprayed into the air and onto nearby fields as fertilizer. The problem is compounded by the rapidly proliferating poultry industry, which is largely unregulated. The state’s Department of Environmental Quality does not even have information on the location or waste disposal practices of these industrial-scale chicken and turkey barns. Commercial poultry farms produce more waste laden with nitrogen and phosphorus than the state’s massive commercial hog farms but need no operating permits, face no requirement to submit waste management plans to the DEQ and can only be inspected if someone in the community complains about their operations. Nutrient pollution from the over-application of nitrogen and phosphorus in animal manure and chemical fertilizers is considered one of the country’s most widespread and costly environmental problems, causing algae blooms that kill fish, harm aquatic habitats and sicken humans with elevated toxin concentrations and bacterial growth.

New York Law Would Require Fashion Companies Show Social, Environmental Impact - New York would become the first state in the nation to require global fashion brands to disclose their climate and social impacts and take action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions under a bill introduced in the state legislature. If passed and signed into law, the Fashion Sustainability and Social Accountability Act would apply to Armani, LVMH, Nike and other apparel companies with more than $100 million in annual worldwide revenues that do business in New York. Companies that fail to comply with the law may be fined up to 2% of revenues of $450 million or more, according to the legislation.

Ga. senator seeks review of proposed mine near Okefenokee - A Georgia senator has escalated opposition to a proposed titanium mine that would be sited near the fabled Okefenokee National Wildlife Refuge. In twin, nearly identical letters sent to the Army Corps of Engineers and EPA, Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff urged officials to restore federal scrutiny and potential protection for the area in southeast Georgia that had been removed by the Trump administration. “The Twin Pines proposed mine threatens the environmental, cultural, and economic integrity of the Okefenokee,” Ossoff wrote in his Dec. 20 letter to the corps, which became public this week. Ossoff added that “independent experts have expressed concerns that the mining process and accompanying groundwater withdrawals could substantially alter the swamp’s hydrology and release toxic contaminants into the swamp and nearby rivers.” Specifically, the first-term lawmaker asked the agencies to “reconsider” an October 2020 “jurisdictional determination” that concluded a roughly 400-acre site near the refuge was outside of federal reach. This could lead to the completion of a full-bore environmental review and federal permit process. “These letters are a major step toward restoring independent review of the Okefenokee mine,” said Christian Hunt, southeast representative at Defenders of Wildlife. "Scientists, agencies and thousands of Georgians have repeatedly sounded the alarm over the risks to the swamp. The EPA and corps can heed their calls by restoring federal safeguards to this dangerous project.” Alabama-based Twin Pines Minerals LLC has plans for what could become a 12,000-acre heavy mineral sands mine. During the Obama administration, under the Waters of the United States rule, the corps determined that the first phase of the proposed mine would have affected about 400 acres of the swamp. The Trump administration reversed course after scaling back the WOTUS rule, which is once again under consideration again by the Biden administration (E&E News PM, Jan. 3). Conservation groups have united to fight the mine on behalf of the Okefenokee Swamp, the largest federally protected refuge east of the Mississippi River and the largest intact freshwater ecosystem in North America (Greenwire, July 15, 2020). Okefenokee is a perched wetland, and the mine would be on a ridge rising above it. Environmental groups and federal agencies worry that mining could lower groundwater levels and partially drain the swamp.

More than half of plastics in Mediterranean marine protected areas originated elsewhere - Researchers have, for the first time, simulated both micro- and macroplastics accumulation in Mediterranean Marine Protected Areas (MPAs). They found that the majority of Mediterranean countries included in the study had at least one MPA where more than half of macroplastics originated elsewhere. The study, published in Frontiers in Marine Science, highlights the need for international collaboration on plastic pollution management in marine protected areas. Marine plastic pollution is one of the biggest environmental issues of our time, along with the climate crisis and overfishing. Depending on characteristics such as buoyancy and size, plastics can travel long distances, sometimes ending up far away from their source. A team of researchers led by Dr. Yannis Hatzonikolakis found that transboundary plastic pollution is significant in most Mediterranean MPAs. More than 55% of macroplastics in several studied MPAs originated from a different country or region. "Our study shows that specific sites, important for the conservation of biodiversity, concentrate high amounts of plastics," said Hatzonikolakis. "Although marine protected areas are protected by restrictions from other threats, for example fishing and tourism, plastic acts like an 'invisible' enemy, potentially threatening the native marine organisms." To predict plastic accumulation zones in Mediterranean marine conservation areas, the researchers conducted a three-year simulation (between 2016 and 2018) of the distribution of plastic particles in the Mediterranean Sea using a so-called basin-scale particle drift model. The model considers the most important dispersion processes, such as currents, sinking, and winds. The researchers considered three land-based sources of plastic particles: rivers, cities, and wastewater discharge. They found that coastal zones (inshore waters) were the most impacted by both micro- and macroplastics. The average microplastics concentration in inshore waters was more than 1.5m particles per km2, while offshore waters had 0.5m particles per km2. The average macroplastics concentration in inshore waters was more than 5kg per km2, and offshore waters had more than 1.5kg per km2. As national MPAs and Natura 2000 sites are close to coastal zones (inshore waters), these sites accumulated more plastic pollution than sites which lay in offshore waters, such as sites of conservation interest for whales and dolphins.

 'Heartbreaking': 2021 climate-related disasters killed 688 - Last year will go down in the record books as the fourth warmest in history, while producing the second highest number of climate disasters, killing 688 people, NOAA said today. Overall, the nation experienced 20 separate billion-dollar weather and climate disasters in 2021, resulting in the highest number of fatalities in a decade, NOAA’s National Centers for Environmental Information said in a report. By comparison, 262 people died in weather-related disasters in 2020, which also produced 22 separate billion-dollar disasters, the most ever. Rep. Eddie Bernice Johnson (D-Texas), the chair of the House Space, Science and Technology Committee, called the numbers from the annual recap "heartbreaking." “The consequences of climate change impact each and every American — especially disadvantaged communities — across the nation," she said. "We must act on climate now to build a better and more safe future for all." December, which delivered a string of unusual and deadly tornadoes in Kentucky and elsewhere, ranked as the warmest on record, with a contiguous U.S. temperature of 39.3 degrees Fahrenheit, or 6.7 degrees above average. That broke a record set in December 2015. Ten states — Alabama, Arkansas, Kansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Missouri, Nebraska, New Mexico, Oklahoma and Texas — also had their warmest Decembers on record. For the year, the average contiguous U.S. temperature was 54.5 F, which was 2.5 degrees above the 20th-century average. The six warmest years on record have all occurred since 2012, NOAA said. Among states, Maine and New Hampshire had their second warmest year on record. Precipitation across the contiguous U.S. measured 30.48 inches, roughly half an inch above average. Massachusetts reported its ninth wettest year on record, while Montana had its ninth driest year in history.

Deep freeze from Upper Midwest, U.S. to Atlantic Canada -Numerous wind chill advisories and warnings are in place from the Upper Midwest to New England on Monday, January 10, 2022, as wind chills are expected to plummet to -31 to -40 °C (-25 to -40 °​F). In addition, heavy lake effect snow is likely downwind of the Great Lakes early this week. While Western Canada finally breaks free from the prolonged extreme cold, the coldest air of the season is now targeting Ontario, Quebec, and parts of Atlantic Canada.Behind a potent cold front that has exited into the eastern Atlantic Ocean, arctic air is expected to continue rushing into the Northeast this morning, NWS forecaster Snell noted.¹This pocket of cold air extends westward and throughout much of the northern tier, where dangerously cold wind chills will remain across the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes today before more bearable temperatures enter on Tuesday.With wind chills expected to drop well below zero (as low as -40 °C / -40 °F in spots), Wind Chill Warnings and Wind Chill Advisories currently span twelve states throughout the northern tier from far northeast Montana to northern Maine. Temperatures this cold can lead to frostbite on exposed skin in as little as ten minutes.For much of the Northeast and New England, these frigid temperatures will remain locked over the region into Wednesday morning as a strong high pressure system slowly swings over the eastern United States.Meanwhile, in association with cold west-northwesterly winds, lake effect snow is likely downwind of the Great Lakes over the next few days.Snow could be particularly heavy at times under very narrow snow bands throughout the eastern U.P. of Michigan, the Tug Hill Plateau of New York State, as well as far western New York and northwest Pennsylvania.. Winter Storm Warnings, Lake Effect Snow Warnings, and Winter Weather Advisories are in effect.

 Yakutat declares disaster emergency after 1.8 m (6 feet) of snow, Alaska - The City and Borough of Yakutat in Alaska, U.S. has declared a local disaster emergency on January 11, 2022, after accumulating approximately 1.5 - 1.8 m (5 - 6 feet) of snow over the last several weeks. Yakutat is isolated and off the road system, and all local available resources had been exhausted.The Borough is now experiencing rain conditions, with near-freezing temperatures, causing snow loads to become even heavier, Borough Manager Jon Erickson said in the Declaration of Local Disaster Emergency.¹As a result, numerous structures within the Borough have sustained, or are in imminent danger of sustaining, significant damage.The new Yakutat Clinic Health Center was forced to close and likely has millions of dollars of water damage.The Yakutat Schools snow loads are threatening to collapse the roofs of the Gym and Elementary School, despite extensive snow removal efforts.Borough-owned fish plant, the only fish plant in the Borough, has snow loads at a dangerous level and the municipal water and sewer plant roofs are now dangerously overloaded.The privately-owned hardware store and grocery stores have worrisome snow loads, as do numerous private lodges and residences.There have been repeated, intermittent power outages, with loss of municipal telephone and internet.Several older structures have already collapsed, including a carport at the municipal public safety building, which collapsed onto the Borough's emergency management trailer.This ongoing situation poses an imminent threat to health, safety and welfare of the residents, businesses, and infrastructure of the Borough, Erickson said, adding that the available personnel and resources are currently inadequate to handle the consequences of this current weather event.To help with the cleaning of tremendous amounts of snow and rain over the last 7 days, 20 Alaska National Guard Soldiers and Airmen headed toward the community via military airplane on January 12.²Guard members are now performing building safety assessments and emergency snow removal for Tribal, public and government facilities.Other Southeast communities are also struggling to cope with the aftermath of a cold snap that hit the region with severe winter weather last week.³In Juneau, heavy snow gave way to rain on Monday, January 10, closing schools, state offices and the community's largest grocery store. The roofs of two buildings failed on Tuesday due to heavy snow loads.In the small Admiralty Island community of Angoon, freezing temperatures have taken a toll on the already-stressed water facility, causing village-wide water shortages.

Tropical Cyclone "Tiffany" to make landfall over the far north Queensland, Australia --Tropical Cyclone "Tiffany" formed in the Coral Sea on January 9, 2022, as the 5^th named storm of the 2021/22 Australian region cyclone season. Tiffany is expected to bring damaging to destructive winds and heavy rain to communities in far north Queensland from the morning of January 10, 2022 (LT). Parts of Queensland already saw major flooding this week after prolonged heavy rainfall brought by Ex-Tropical Cyclone "Seth" described by BOM as incredibly rare.

• Tiffany has strengthened to category 2 cyclone on the Australian scale as it approaches the Cape York Peninsula.
• Landfall is expected between Cooktown and Lockhart River, with the timing dependent on whether Tiffany moves south or north of Cape Melville.
• The system is expected to move into the Gulf of Carpentaria on Tuesday and re-intensify quickly as it moves towards the Northern Territory coast.
• A severe tropical cyclone coastal impact on the Northern Territory coast is possible on Wednesday, January 12 or Thursday, January 13.

As of 17:45 UTC on January 9 (04:46 AEST, January 10), Tiffany was a category 2 tropical cyclone moving W at 18 km/h (11 mph) with sustained winds near the center of 95 km/h (59 mph) and wind gusts to 130 km/h (81 mph), according to the Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BOM).¹

Tropical Cyclone "Cody" leaves widespread floods and infrastructure damage, Fiji - Tropical Cyclone "Cody" formed on January 10, 2022, near Fiji as the second named storm of the 2021/22 South Pacific Ocean cyclone season. Cody's center passed south of the island without making landfall, but strong winds and prolonged heavy rains caused widespread floods and infrastructure damage, especially on the western side of Viti Levu. At 00:00 UTC on January 10, Cody's center was located about 255 km (158 miles) SW of Viti Levu, with maximum sustained winds of 74 km/h (46 mph).At least one person was killed in Tavua Town, northern Viti Levu, and a number of people were forced to evacuate in northern and western Viti Levu due to floods.According to Energy Fiji Limited (EFL) Chief Executive Hasmukh Patel, Cody brought continuous heavy rain and floods, causing huge infrastructure damages.Some fallen power lines are still down and Fijians are urged to stay away from them and alert the EFL as soon as possible, Patel said.¹According to the Ministry of Education, schools will remain closed until they receive clearance from the National Disaster Management Office (NDMO) that it was safe to reopen, as 58 schools are being used as evacuation centers and will need to be decontaminated once the weather has improved and the situation was cleared by the Ministry of Health.Most parts of the Rewa province are currently flooded, NDMO said at 05:33 UTC on January 11

Destructive floods hit Eastern Cape, South Africa --Heavy rains affecting South Africa's Eastern Cape on January 8 and 9, 2022, have left several people dead and scores displaced.The floods affected areas of Mthatha, Buffalo City Metropolitan Municipality, the township of Mdantsane, and areas of East London, leaving at least 7 people dead, including 53-year-old police search and rescue member who died while rescuing people swept away during the floods.According to the Buffalo City Metro Municipality (BCMM), torrential rains left scores of houses and informal settlements in and around the metro severely damaged.¹Scores of residents, mainly in the township of Mdantsane, were displaced, with roads in some parts completely submerged.

 549 cities under state of emergency due to severe floods, Brazil (videos) More than 549 cities in Brazil are now under a state of emergency due to severe floods affecting the country over the past couple of weeks. Dozens of people have been killed and more than 133 000 forced to evacuate their homes. In addition, 200 cities in the state of Rio Grande do Sul are in a state of emergency due to droughts.The worst affected by floods are Minas Gerais and Bahia with 341 cities and 175 municipalities under a state of emergency. Minas Gerais is home to the country's 3 most at-risk tailings dams, renewing traumas in a region that has experienced two catastrophic dam collapses since 2015.¹In the last few days, the state reported at least 15 fatalities, including 10 in Canyon de Furnas.² More than 55 0000 were affected and 28 000 forced to evacuate, the state's Civil Defence reported.While Minas Gerais has seen periods of heavy rainfall since October 2021 (the start of the rainy season), the situation worsened around December 22 when 13 municipalities experienced severe flooding.³According to Brazil’s mining agency, 36 mining dams in the state are in a condition of emergency. A dam at an iron ore mine in Nova Lima dribbled on Saturday, January 8, causing two days of traffic delays on a major route.⁴Authorities in Pará de Minas were keeping an eye on the Carioca hydroelectric dam in case it ruptured.The landslide shown in the video below took place on January 13 in the city of Ouro Preto:A video has also emerged online that shows the overtopping of the dam immediately downstream of the Pau Branco landslide on January 8, 2022.⁵"At the start of the video it is clear that the rainfall was heavy, and the dam was full with water cascading down the spillway on the far side," Dr. Dave Petley of The Landslide Blog noted."As the landslide becomes visible on the left side of the footage a displacement wave races across the lagoon and causes an initial overtopping event. This quickly develops as the volume of the lagoon is filled with landslide debris. Initially, most of the overtopping is water from within the lagoon, and this is reflected by the videos from the road below the dam."Meanwhile, 200 cities in the southern state of Rio Grande do Sul are in a state of emergency due to droughts.

Massive rock topple at Canyon de Furnas in Brazil kills 10 people, injures 32 (videos) At least 10 people have been killed and 32 others injured after a massive chunk of rocks toppled onto boaters in Canyon de Furnas, Brazil. The event took place on Saturday, January 8, 2022, after a period of heavy rain. 4 boats were affected, of which two directly.The site is a part of a reservoir created by the large Furnas Dam on the Rio Grande just downstream of Canyon de Furnas.The event occurred after heavy rainfall and at a time when the water level behind the dam was high, landslides expert Dr. Dave Petley said.¹The tragic event was captured on video (viewer discretion advised)."The failure itself is a classic flexural topple, in which failure is dominated by vertical or near-vertical structures in the rock mass," Petley said."The second part of the video [above] also captures the minute or so leading up to the main failure, in which the rock mass is (with hindsight) progressively deforming, generating a succession of rockfalls.""This precursory activity is common. Once again the message needs to be that if a rock slope is generating a succession of rockfalls then a large failure event might be developing."At least 10 people have been killed, all apparently from a single boat that was hit directly by the rock pillar. 32 others have been injured in other nearby boats.²The head of the Applied Geology Division of the Brazilian Geological Service, Tiago Antonelli, said the cliff wall is subject to centuries of erosion and susceptible to rain, heat and cold.

Drought makes heatwaves hotter but less deadly - During heatwaves, the land dries out. That drought further enhances the rising of heatwave temperatures. However, desiccated soils still make the heatwaves less rather than more deadly to humans, due to a reduction in air humidity. Until now, it was believed that dried out soils make heatwaves even more deadly as it pushes heatwavetemperatures even higher. After all, drier land results in lower evaporation. Consequently, more energy is left at the Earth's surface to heat up the outside air further. But the temperature effect of drought is deceiving: high air humidity also hampers cooling of the human body through transpiration, hence a higher chance for overheating. Lower evaporation concurrently leads to lower air humidity. That beneficial effect takes over, and makes heatwaves less deadly. The results reveal which measures against periods of drought and deadly heat are most effective. Such periods are becoming longer, more frequent and more intense in a warming climate. Many measures are already taking place, such as (re)afforestation and irrigation of croplands, and these are necessary for nature conservation, biodiversity, agriculture and food production. However, the current study shows that these drought-resistant measures are ineffective against deadly heat and can even be detrimental, despite the fact that they smooth out the extremely high temperatures. The favorable effect due to a lower temperature is canceled out by the higher humidity, which makes the heat sultrier. The measures therefore remove the beneficial effect of drought during deadly heatwaves.

Record Vegetable Oil Prices Risk Even Faster Inflation – More bad weather for the world’s oilseed growers is pushing rapeseed and canola prices to fresh records and adding to food-inflation worries. Futures have been on a tear for a while, after last year’s harvests in Canada and Europe were plagued by scorching drought and planting cutbacks, cutting global rapeseed stockpiles to a four-year low. Now, worries are mounting about supplies of rival vegetable oils, with hot and dry weather hurting South American soybean prospects and flooding hitting palm oil farms in Malaysia. As a recent crude oil rally also aids demand for the crops to make biodiesel, Paris rapeseed futures and North American canola notched new all-time highs on Friday. Their oils are also used for everything from frying French fries to mixing salad dressings. Rapeseed prices have nearly doubled in the past year.“The situation is really tight, and the buyers are still there,” said Arthur Portier, an analyst at Paris-based farm adviser Agritel.Paris rapeseed futures surged as much as 5.9 percent on Friday, the biggest intraday gain since 2009, and North American canola gained as much as 1.5 percent.The gains come as palm oil — used in about half of all supermarket goods — has rallied and near-record food prices squeeze household budgets.A UN index of food prices averaged 28 percent higher last year than the prior year, led by a surge in vegetable oils.Europe has become increasingly reliant on oilseed imports in the past few years, after phasing out crop chemicals that rapeseed growers used to deter pests.That is exacerbating local prices, as supplies shrink across key exporters, said Michael Magdovitz, senior analyst at Rabobank NV in London.

Warmest U.S. December in History Caps a Stormy, Mostly-Sizzling Year -- Apart from one catastrophic cold wave, it was warm-season-type threats, from tornadoes to wildfires – regardless of the calendar – that caused most of the weather havoc across the contiguous United States in 2021. The year produced 20 billion-dollar disasters, according to NOAA, the second highest number in inflation-adjusted data going back to 1980. The total cost of 2021’s billion-dollar disasters, $145 billion, was the third highest on record since 1980. In its preliminary annual round-up of U.S. climate, released on January 10, NOAA found that 2021 was the fourth warmest year on record for the 48 contiguous states. Much of the warmth was concentrated in the second half of the year, the nation’s warmest July-to-December period on record. The only U.S. years warmer than 2021 in data going back to 1895 were 2012, 2016, and 2017. Every year since 1996 has been warmer across the Lower 48 than the 1901-2000 average, and the seven warmest years on record all have occurred in the 21^st century. The contiguous U.S. has now warmed by around 2.0°F (1.1°C) since 1895, which is close to the global average. That’s a noteworthy trend given that the U.S. was lagging much of the globe in long-term warming during the late 20th century. Based on preliminary data from NOAA compiled by independent meteorologist Guy Walton, the U.S. in 2021 had almost three times as many daily record maximums (34,569) as daily record minimums (12,644). That makes 2021 the second year in a row with record-high-to-record-low ratios exceeding 2-to-1. A 2009 paper by Walton and colleagues predicted that the typical ratio could reach 20-to-1 by mid-century and 50-to-1 by late in the century. Every one of the 48 contiguous states was warmer than average in 2021, and 35 of those states had a top-10 warmest year. The annual warmth was only slightly muted across the Southern Plains and Southeast, in large part the result of a brutal cold wave that gripped much of the central United States in mid-February. A total of 106 stations set or tied all-time record lows in February. The combined intensity and duration of the intense cold were the worst in decades over many locations – especially across Texas, where natural gas outages left millions without heat for days. At least 226 deaths and at least $26 billion damage can be attributed directly to the cold wave, according to NOAA. The impacts may be far greater when considering knock-on effects to the regional economy. As if to make up for lost time, the nation bolted into warmer territory from March onward. Starting at that point, every interval extending to December (March-December, April-December, May-December, etc.) ended up as the nation’s warmest on record for that interval. Intense heat and drought led to another summer of destructive forest fires across the West, with smoke and haze spreading far across the eastern half of the nation in July. According to the National Interagency Fire Center, the annual U.S. total acreage burnedin 2021 – 7.13 million acres – was considerably less than the 10-million-plus acres consumed in 2020, 2017, and 2015 and the 8.7 million in 2018, albeit well above the 4.6 million in 2019. After a strikingly mild autumn, December 2021 was astonishingly warm over large areas, especially the Southern Plains and lower Mississippi Valley, where many locations had multiple days soar well above 70°F and even 80°F. As noted by independent weather researcher Maximiliano Herrera, Houston’s average temperature for December (including highs and lows) of 67.8°F was not only higher than that of any other December on record, it was higher than for any November! Similarly, Wichita Falls, Texas, hit 91°F on Christmas Eve (December 24), which melted its all-time high for December and beat any day from any November as well. Preliminary data for December from NOAA showed a total of 6,321 daily record highs and 910 monthly record highs either broken or tied across the nation.

Weather disaster deaths hit 10-year high in mainland US -- Nearly 700 people died due to natural disasters in the contiguous United States in 2021—the most since 2011, said a federal weather agency in a report released Monday. The year "was marked by extremes across the US, including exceptional warmth, devastating severe weather and the second-highest number of billion-dollar weather and climate disasters on record," said the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). The death toll for weather-related disasters in the 48 mainland states plus the District of Columbia totaled 688, more than twice 2020's tally of 262, the agency said. Human activity has caused life-threatening climate change resulting in more severe weather events across the globe. Twenty separate weather incidents cost the country $1 billion or more, the second-most billion-dollar events recorded in a calendar year behind 2020, which saw 22, the agency said. The costly disasters included four hurricanes, three tornados, two floods, a cold wave, and western wildfires, droughts, and heat waves. Rachel Cleetus, policy director and lead economist for the Climate and Energy Program at the Union of Concerned Scientists, called the statistics "sobering." "The devastating toll and trauma imposed by extreme weather and climate disasters have, and continue to, hit some people harder than others with communities of color, low-income communities, and communities that have endured multiple disasters often bearing the brunt of its impacts," she said. A bitter cold snap left millions of Americans without electricity in February, when a deadly winter storm system held its grip across huge swathes of the United States, even pushing as far south as Mexico. Record-low temperatures wracked places ill-prepared for such conditions, overwhelming local utility companies and infuriating residents left to huddle under coats and blankets and fend for themselves. More than 20 storm-related deaths were registered. Hurricane Ida struck the US Gulf Coast as a Category 4 hurricane in late August, bringing major flooding and knocking out power to large parts of the heavily populated region. The final blast of the storm killed at least 47 people in the US Northeast as it turned streets into raging rivers, inundated basements and shut down the New York subway. NOAA reported that 2021 ranked as the fourth-warmest year in a 127-year period of record, with average temperatures of 54.5 degrees Fahrenheit (12.5 degrees Celsius) in the contiguous US. December 2021 was the warmest on record—6.7F above average. The 2021 average temperature was 2.5F higher than the 20th century average.

The past seven years have been the hottest in recorded history, new data shows - In the middle of a historically sweltering summer, a NASA researcher stood before Congress and declared the unvarnished, undeniable scientific truth: “The greenhouse effect has been detected,” James Hansen said. “And it is changing our climate now.”The year was 1988. Global temperatures were about 0.6 degrees Celsius (1.1 degrees Fahrenheit) above the preindustrial average. It was, at the time, the hottest 12-month period scientists had ever seen.None of us will ever experience a year that cool again.In 2021, global temperatures were between 1.1 and 1.2 degrees Celsius (2.2 degrees Fahrenheit) above the preindustrial average, according to new data from NASA, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and Berkeley Earth.Despite a La Niña weather pattern in the Pacific Ocean, which tends to cool the planet, 2021 was roughly tied for sixth-hottest year ever observed, scientists say. All of the seven hottest years on record have happened in the last seven years.The new global temperature data sets, which come from three of the world’s top climate research institutions, are packed with alarming signs of a world in crisis. More than two dozen countries that are home to about 1.8 billion people experienced their warmest years ever last year. July was the hottest month humanity has recorded. The heat dome that seared the Pacific Northwest this past summer was “the most anomalous extreme heat event ever observed on Earth,” in the words of one scientist — a disaster so severe that it would have been virtually impossible in a world without climate change.Overall, last year did not smash as many global records — it ranked seventh lowest for Northern Hemisphere snow cover, ninth smallest for average Arctic sea ice extent and 10th highest for number of named tropical storms, depending on the data set consulted. But the fact that 2021 didn’t rewrite the history books makes it even more sobering, said NASA climatologist Gavin Schmidt. It underscores the extent to which human greenhouse gas emissions, primarily from burning fossil fuels, have fundamentally and irrevocably changed the planet. Even the not-quite-so-bad years are dramatically worse than anything that could have been imagined a generation ago. Natural variation, like the cooling influence of La Niña, can barely put a dent in the relentless man-made warming trend.The year 2021 was the seventh in a row in which global temperatures were more than 1 degree Celsius above the preindustrial average. It’s unlikely anyone alive will see the world’s temperature drop below that 1-degree benchmark again.“There is no going back,” said Schmidt, director of the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies and a lead researcher on the agency’s annual temperature analysis. The roughly 1.5 trillion tons of carbon dioxide emitted by humans — more than half of it in the 34 years since Hansen’s testimony — will not leave the atmosphere for at least several more centuries. Schmidt added: “We are reaping what we’ve sown.”

Deadly extreme weather year for US as carbon emissions soar - The United States staggered through a steady onslaught of deadly billion-dollar weather and climate disasters in an extra hot 2021, while the nation's greenhouse gas emissions last year jumped 6% because of surges in coal and long-haul trucking, putting America further behind its 2030 climate change cutting goal. Three different reports released Monday, though not directly connected, paint a picture of a U.S. in 2021 struggling with global warming and its efforts to curb it. A report from theRhodium Group, an independent research firm, on Monday said that in 2021 America's emissions of heat-trapping gas rebounded from the first year of the pandemic at a faster rate than the economy as a whole, making it harder to reach the country's pledge to the world to cut emissions in half compared to 2005 by 2030. And last year was the deadliest weather year for the contiguous United States since 2011 with 688 people dying in 20 different billion-dollar weather and climate disasters that combined cost at least $145 billion, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said Monday. That was the second highest number of billion-dollar weather disasters—which are adjusted for inflation with records going back to 1980— and third costliest. Scientists have long said human-caused climate change makes extreme weather nastier and more frequent, documenting numerous links to wild and deadly weather events. They say hotter air and oceans and melting sea ice alter the jet stream which brings and stalls storm fronts, makes hurricanes wetter and stronger, while worsening western droughts and wildfires. Last year's weather disasters included a record shattering heat wave in the Pacific Northwest where temperatures hit 116 degrees in Portland, a devastating and deadly cold icy storm in Texas, a widespread windstorm called a derecho, four hurricanes that caused intense damage, deadly tornado outbreaks, mudslides and a persistent drought and lots of wildfires.

Sea level on steroids: Record tides flood Washington coastlines -Some of the highest tides ever recorded hit Seattle and much of the Washington coast during the first week of January 2022.High tides in Port Townsend, Seattle, and Tacoma on Friday were nearly two feet higher than forecast. Friday morning’s tide in Seattle appears to be the highest in more than a century of record keeping, though the tidal gauge at Colman Dock blinked outfor half an hour as Elliott Bay swelled past 14.47 feet, its highest elevation in at least 40 years, at 9 a.m.Tidal gauges in Tacoma, La Push, and Westport also hit all-time highs, though those gauges’ data only go back a quarter century or less.Surging seas led the National Weather Service to issue coastal flood warnings for the Puget Sound region on three days in January and five in December.On Friday, reports of salt water flooding roads, homes, and businesses came in from British Columbia to south Puget Sound and Hood Canal. Unusually high waves for Washington’s sheltered inland sea pounded waterfront homes on the Shoreline shoreline and in Birch Bay near the Canadian border, among other locations. At Richmond Beach Saltwater Park just north of Seattle, driftwood logs tumbled in surf where beachgoers normally stroll along a placid Puget Sound. Waves pounded the BNSF Railway line that hugs the eastern shore of Puget Sound for much of the key freight corridor’s run between Canada and Olympia.Extreme high tides, along with extreme low tides, were expected this week, though not this high.The swollen waters known as "king tides" come to Washington every winter, driven by the relative positions of the earth, moon, and sun.This week, those extraterrestrial forces combined with low atmospheric pressure and strong winds to push Puget Sound much higher than forecast. The powerful influence of air pressure on the sea is sometimes called the “inverse barometer effect.” When the barometer drops, the ocean can expand beyond what tide tables forecast, much like your pillow rising when you lift your head off it. Washington Sea Grant oceanographer Ian Miller says low-pressure storms can boost tides in Puget Sound as much as 3 feet.King tides are also given about an 8-inch boost these days by global warming.Over the past century, sea level has risen about 8 inches in Seattle, as it has globally.Oceanographers say king tides offer a glimpse of the future as warming waters and melting polar icecaps continue to push oceans higher.

The Great Siberian Thaw -- Permafrost contains microbes, mammoths, and twice as much carbon as Earth’s atmosphere. What happens when it starts to melt? Three million years ago, as continent-­size glaciers pulsed down from the poles, temperatures in Siberia plunged to minus eighty degrees Fahrenheit and vast stretches of soil froze underground. As the planet cycled between glacial and interglacial periods, much of that frozen ground thawed, only to freeze again, dozens of times. Around eleven and a half millennia ago, the last ice age gave way to the current interglacial period, and temperatures began to rise. The soil that remained frozen year-round came to be known as permafrost. It now lies beneath nine million square miles of Earth’s surface, a quarter of the landmass of the Northern Hemisphere. Russia has the world’s largest share: two-thirds of the country’s territory sits on permafrost.In Yakutia, where the permafrost can be nearly a mile deep, annual temperatures have risen by more than two degrees Celsius since the Industrial Revolution, twice the global average. As the air gets hotter, so does the soil. Deforestation and wildfire—both acute problems in Yakutia—remove the protective top layer of vegetation and raise temperatures underground even more.Over thousands of years, the frozen earth swallowed up all manner of organic material, from tree stumps to woolly mammoths. As the permafrost thaws, microbes in the soil awaken and begin to feast on the defrosting biomass. It’s a funky, organic process, akin to unplugging your freezer and leaving the door open, only to return a day later to see that the chicken breasts in the back have begun to rot. In the case of permafrost, this microbial digestion releases a constant belch of carbon dioxide and methane. Scientific models suggest that the permafrost contains one and a half trillion tons of carbon, twice as much as is currently held in Earth’s atmosphere. Trofim Maximov, a scientist who studies permafrost’s contribution to climate change, described the thawing permafrost as a kind of feedback loop: the release of greenhouse gases causes warmer temperatures, which, in turn, melt the permafrost further. “It’s a natural process,” he told me. “Which means that, unlike purely anthropogenic processes”—say, emissions from factories or automobiles—“once it starts, you can’t really stop it.” By comparing the greenhouse-gas numbers over time, and at various altitudes, Maximov can estimate how permafrost is both affected by a warmer climate and contributing to it. When he started taking airborne measurements, half a decade ago, he found that the concentration of carbon dioxide in the air above Yakutia was increasing at double the rate of historical averages. Methane has a shorter life in the atmosphere than carbon dioxide, but it is more than twenty-­five times as effective at trapping heat. According to Maximov’s data, methane is also being released at an accelerated rate: it is now accumulating fifty per cent faster than it was a generation ago.

Lava flow at Wolf volcano now 15 km (9.3 miles) long, Galapagos Islands - Lava flow produced by the eruption of Ecuador's Wolf volcano that started on January 7, 2022, is now 15 km (9.3 miles) long and less than 5 km (3.1 miles) from the coast. The last eruption of this volcano took place in 2015 (VEI 4)¹ -- it was its first eruption since August/September 1982 (VEI 1).Environment Minister Gustavo Manrique made an over-flight over the eruptive area this week, confirming that eruptive activity at the volcano continues.²The lava flow is now 15 km (9.3 miles) long and is located less than 5 km (3.1 miles) from the coast, toward the east side of the island. SWIR satellite image of Wolf volcano, Isabela, Galapagos Islands on January 11, 2022. "The direction that lava flows and the general development of eruption, allows us to point out that the population of pink iguana, is kept out of danger," Manrique said.The magma has traveled about 15 km (9.3 miles) since the beginning of the activity, moving through ancient lava fields of previous eruptions and over vegetation in the arid area of Galapagos."Species in the eruptive zone have evolved with these natural processes that are part of the normal dynamics of the ecosystem in Galapagos. The populations of iguanas, turtles and birds are located north of the volcano, where historically minor volcanic activity has been recorded," added Danny Rueda, director of the Galápagos National Park.Volcanic eruptions are natural processes that originate from the Galapagos Islands. The Ministry of Environment, Water and Ecological Transition continues to monitor this phenomenon to document changes that may occur in the ecosystem.

High-level eruption at Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha'apai, tsunami warning issued, Tonga - Another high-level eruption started at Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha'apai volcano in Tonga at 15:20 UTC on January 13, 2022. A plume of gas and ash rose rapidly to an estimated height of 16.7 km (55 000 feet) above sea level by 17:42 UTC, according to the Wellington VAAC.According to the Tonga Geological Service, the eruption has lasted for more than 12 hours with eruptive plume reaching a height of 20 km (65 600 feet) and dispersing over Tongatapu, 'Eua and Ha'apai group. This is the largest in a series of eruptions at the volcano since December 2021. Tsunami waves of up to 30 cm (1 foot) were recorded at tidal gauges in Nuku'alofa.The eruption forced officials to issue a tsunami warning for all the islands of the Kingdom of Tonga at 11:12 LT on January 14, advising people to stay out of the water and away from the coast after swirling abnormal tides drew crowds to the Nuku'alofa waterfront.¹Unusual tide activity was also reported in Ha'apai.Eruption at Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha'apai volcano on January 13, 2022 (VIS). ;Based on the abnormal tide observation reported from the town officer of Mango island and the Nuku’alofa marine and ports and its relevance to the ongoing volcanic eruption in the Hunga-Tonga Hunga-Ha’apai area, A TSUNAMI MARINE WARNING IS NOW INFORCE FOR TONGA," the Tonga Meteorological Service (TMS) said in the warning.²" Public are advised to keep away from low-lying coastal areas, reefs and beaches. Mariners out at sea are advised to prepare to move to deep water."

US West Coast and Hawaii are under a tsunami advisory - A massive underwater volcano that erupted just before sundown Friday sent waves several feet high smashing into the shores of the island nation of Tonga and thousands of miles across the Pacific Ocean from Australia to Canada, including the U.S. West Coast.Plumes from the explosion reached more than 12 miles above sea level, according to theTonga Geological Services. At its widest, the cloud caused by the ash and steam reached about 150 miles across, making it easily seen from satellites. The eruption was so massive that its shockwaves were felt as far away as Mount Hood in Oregon.In Tonga, home to 105,000 people, the extent of the injuries and damage caused were still largely unknown. The eruption, which filled the sky with so much ash that darkness seemed to fall on Tonga two hours before sunset, has knocked out communications,according to The Associated Press.Waves flooded parts of the capital Nuku'alofa — just 40 miles from the site of the eruption — including parts of the grounds at the Royal Palace, according to Radio New Zealand. On Twitter, a Tonga resident named Faka'iloatonga Taumoefolau posted a video on Saturday showing feet-high waves washing across a road into homes.The activity from the Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha'apai volcano continued into Saturday morning with another, less powerful 10- to 15-minute-long eruption, according to the Tonga Geological Service.Ash from the eruption could contaminate drinking water, the Tonga government warned. Residents were advised to cover water reservoirs and to check their roofs for ash before reconnecting rainwater systems.After the eruption late Friday, authorities from nations across the Pacific issued tsunami warnings and advisories, from Fiji and Samoa to as far away as Australia and Canada's British Columbia.New Zealand officials warned of "unpredictable surges" on the north and east coasts of the country's North Island. A 6-foot surge in Tutukaka, a town some 85 miles north of Auckland, damaged a harbor and about 30 boats docked there, according to the New Zealand Herald.In Australia, a marine threat advisory warned that "dangerous rips, waves and strong ocean currents" were possible.Both New Zealand and Australia renewed their tsunami advisories early Sunday. "Strong currents and surges can injure and drown people. There is a danger to swimmers, surfers, people fishing, small boats and anyone in or near the water close to shore," wrote New Zealand's National Emergency Management Agency.The Japan Meteorological Agency warned of a tsunami surge across the country's eastern and southern coasts, with the highest surges expected in the Amami and Tokara Islands, two archipelagos to the south of the country's largest islands. Rises of nearly four feet were recorded in Amami and near Kuji, a city on the northeastern coast of Honshu.The first U.S. state to feel the effects of the eruption was Hawaii, where waves over a foot were reported in Kauai and nearly three feet tall in Hanalei. "We are relieved that there is no reported damage and only minor flooding through-out the islands," the Pacific Tsunami Warning Center said.The waves reached the western shore of the continental U.S. on Saturday morning. The National Weather Service issued a tsunami advisory for the entire West Coast and all of Alaska's southern coast, warning that strong currents and waves were expected — but not the "significant inundation" of a full-fledged tsunami warning.According to an NWS update as of 3:15 p.m. ET, the highest surge was recorded in Port San Luis, Calif., where the water reached more than 4 feet over normal levels. The waves topped 3 feet in King Cove in Alaska's Aleutian islands and Point Arena and Crescent City, Calif., two towns along the Northern California coast.

Asteroid 2022 AC4 to fly past Earth at 0.24 LD -- A newly discovered asteroid designated 2022 AC4 will fly past Earth at a distance of 0.24 LD / 0.00062 AU (92 750 km / 57 632 miles) at 05:20 UTC on January 11, 2022.This is the 6^th known asteroid to fly past Earth within 1 lunar distance since January 1. In 2021, we had a total of 145 such flybys.The object belongs to the Apollo group of asteroids and has an estimated diameter between 4.4 and 9.9 m (14.4 - 32.5 feet).It was first observed at Mt. Lemmon Survey on January 9, two days before its close approach.

U.S. emissions surged in 2021, putting the nation further off track from its climate targets - U.S. greenhouse gas emissions roared back in 2021, the latest indicator that the country remains far off track from meeting President Biden’s ambitious climate change targets for the end of this decade.A 17 percent surge in coal-fired electricity helped drive an overall increase of 6.2 percent in greenhouse gas emissions compared with the previous year, according to an analysis published Monday by the Rhodium Group. While emissions remained below pre-pandemic levels, it marked the first annual increase in reliance on the nation’s dirtiest fossil fuel since 2014, the independent research firm said.The rise in the nation’s emissions, which many experts anticipate will continue this year, is a sign of an economy on the mend. But it also signals a potentially ominous climate reality: The United States is not yet emerging from the coronavirus pandemic with a greener economy, making it that much harder for Biden to deliver on his pledge to cut the nation’s emissions in half by 2030. “In an ideal world, we want the economy to rebound, but not the emissions,” Kate Larsen, a co-author of the analysis who leads Rhodium’s international energy and climate research, said in an interview.Larsen added that the surge in coal generation was “almost entirely due to high natural gas prices” as oil and gas producers curbed new production in response to lower global demand because of pandemic lockdowns. “Emissions from our power sector were pretty much at the whim of energy markets,” she said.The nation’s largest source of greenhouse gas emissions — transportation — also saw the steepest rebound during 2021, rising 10 percent over the previous year, Rhodium found. The arrival of coronavirus vaccines and the nation’s fitful efforts to emerge from the pandemic meant more Americans traveled on roads and in the skies than in 2020. But road freight was the only mode of transportation that rebounded to pre-pandemic levels, as thousands of diesel-powered trucks rumbled along the nation’s highways to deliver consumer goods.Separately on Monday, scientists with the European Commission’s Copernicus Climate Change Service reported that the last seven years were the Earth’s hottest on record. Globally, 2021 was the fifth-warmest ever recorded, the scientists found, and atmospheric concentrations of the potent gases carbon dioxide and methane continued to rise.

Carbon emissions increased in 2021, mainly driven by coal - In a troublesome sign for President Joe Biden's climate goals, US greenhouse emissions surged back from a pandemic slump faster in 2021 than the overall economy, according to a preliminary analysis by the nonpartisan Rhodium Group.Energy analysts had expected to see a rebound of planet-warming emissions in 2021. But even so, the growth outpaced expectations, according to Kate Larsen, a partner at Rhodium Group and a co-author of the report."Emissions grew even faster than the economic recovery and that was largely the rebound in coal generation," Larsen told CNN, noting that "there weren't any significant policies to make economic growth less carbon-intensive."Preliminary 2021 data from Rhodium estimates economy-wide greenhouse gas emissions increased 6.2% compared to 2020 -- which saw a steep drop in emissions due to the Covid-19 economic shutdown. Still, 2021 emissions remained 5% below 2019 levels. Coal use was a big driver of the rebound in emissions, according to the Rhodium report. Coal burned for electricity spiked 17% in 2021, the first year since 2014 that coal generation in the US increased instead of decreasing. Larsen said the switch back to coal was largely due to increasing natural gas prices; natural gas generation dropped 3% in 2021 as prices rose. Larsen said that "because of a lack of federal rules and standards," changes in emissions "are largely at the whim of energy market dynamics." The growth in US emissions is bad news for Biden's overarching climate goal: a deadline of 2030 to cut fossil fuel emissions in half from 2005 levels. Climate and energy experts, including Larsen, widely agree that these emissions cuts won't happen at the current economic trajectory -- they need policy changes to occur.

Africa Faces an Uphill Battle Against Western Emissions to Combat Climate Change -The UN climate summit COP26, held in November 2021, focused the world’s attention on the urgent need to tackle climate change and concluded with 197 countries agreeing to the Glasgow climate pact. But opinions on the summit’s success are polarised. We owe a profound gratitude to the developing nations – including those from Africa – who agreed to the pact. In doing so, they chose not to insist that richer developed nations, whose historical and ongoing greenhouse gas emissions have largely caused the climate crisis, pay reparations to them for the damage they’ve inflicted.African nations continue to hold the unenviable position of being disproportionately vulnerable to climate change. Although the continent accounts for the smallest share of global greenhouse gas emissions – only 3.8% – it’s already heating faster than the rest of the world.And if the target of limiting global warming to 1.5℃ above pre-industrial levels is missed, Africa could be facing catastrophic temperature increases of up to 3℃ by 2050.At the same time, the threat to GDP of African nations that are most vulnerable to these changes – meaning the amount of economic activity that stands to be lost if these changes are severe enough – is projected to increase from £660 billion in 2018 to over £1 trillion in 2023. That’s almost half of the continent’s projected GDP.Given these estimates, Africa’s climate resilience must exceed the global norm. And some steps are being taken to protect the continent against the worst climate consequences through investments from national governments and the private sector. Organisations such as the African Development Bank and the UN Environment Programme are also leading climate changeadaptation measures, like working to protect mangroves on over 200 million hectares of land.However, the estimated yearly cost of this kind of climate adaptation for developing nations is around £52 billion – and is expected to rise to between £100-220 billion by 2030. While developed nations agreed in the Glasgow pact to double climate change contributions to their developing counterparts by about £29 billion by 2025, this amount is just a fraction of what’s needed.

Climate clubs: Secret handshakes, CO2 prices and exclusivity -Global climate talks are intended to bring the world’s nations together. But after years of disappointing outcomes, an idea that evokes images of secret handshakes and English gentleman’s clubs is enjoying a revival.The concept of so-called climate clubs was formed in part out of discontent with the diplomatic inclusiveness of international climate efforts — and the faltering action that has resulted from those negotiations.Instead of seeking consensus among disparate nations, clubs would include like-minded countries that reward one another through benefits, such as trade deals, if they fulfill their promises to reduce emissions. They can also punish one another, by withdrawing a nation’s prestigious club membership.But they’ve also raised vexing questions. Among them are concerns about equity. Climate change is a global problem, and many of the nations feeling the most damaging effects would likely be excluded from these clubs.The best-known climate club model was popularized by Yale University economist William Nordhaus, who argued that countries would try to benefit from reduced emissions without paying for the costs for abatement, a problem known asfree-riding. He proposed a club that would combine a minimum carbon price with tariffs on imports from nonmember countries.So far, no such clubs have been created. But the debate around them will likely gain attention this year as the European Union pushes forward on its proposal for a border carbon adjustment mechanism — a tariff levied on goods from countries not doing as much to combat climate change.German Chancellor Olaf Scholz is also likely to move the climate club idea forward in talks with the Group of Seven. In a paper published in August, when he was finance minister, Scholz laid out his support for a club prioritizing carbon pricing, trade policy and efforts to make industry less carbon intensive.His idea goes beyond the traditional concept of an exclusive climate club by acknowledging the need to offer money and support to poorer countries so they can become members in the future. If such a club ends up committing to finance climate mitigation in poorer countries or to help pay for a coal phaseout in places like South Africa, that’s a step forward, said Susanne Dröge, a senior fellow at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs. But exclusiveness remains a problem. “The expectation with the club wording is that there is something exclusive going on, and that is not productive in terms of international cooperation with poorer countries,” Dröge said. A study Falkner and a group of political scientists published in August outlined three kinds of climate clubs — ranging from loose groupings like those that commit to a coal phaseout, to smaller bargaining clubs like the G-7. “Where clubs can work really well is to raise the level of ambition,” Falkner said, adding that they reinforce climate messaging, create momentum and entice others to join. But those groups lack teeth and are often less about implementation. Economic groupings like the Group of 20 or the Major Economies Forum have been looked to as places for climate cooperation, given that the countries that constitute them account for roughly 80 percent of global emissions, said Dröge of the German Institute for International and Security Affairs. The problem is they have such different interests that it can be hard to agree on points of cooperation.

Biden’s top environmental justice official just left the White House. What now? - On Friday, President Joe Biden’s top environmental justice official left the administration less than one full year into his presidency. Cecilia Martinez, a 2020 Time Magazine 100 Most Influential People recipient, told the Associated Press that she’s leaving the White House to “rest and be with her family,” joining millions in the “Great Resignation” spurred by the coronavirus pandemic. Martinez, who is leaving her post as the senior director for environmental justice at the Council on Environmental Quality, has largely been credited with shaping much of Biden’s environmental justice aspirations. In 2020, she helped develop then-candidate Joe Biden’s environmental goals and since his election, she has helped push the administration to center disadvantaged communities in its priorities. “Cecilia has been the heart, soul, and mind of the most ambitious environmental justice agenda ever adopted by a President,” Council on Environmental Quality Chair Brenda Mallory wrote in a statement Thursday. Most notably under Martinez’ leadership, the federal government has been working to create and implement the long-touted Justice40 initiative, through which the Biden administration committed to ensuring that 40 percent of government sustainability investments benefit the country’s most pollution-burdened communities. The program is meant to guide the government’s spending throughout the Biden administration, including spending from the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law and the now-idled Build Back Better Act. However, over the past year, the administration has crafted the program behind closed doors, choosing not to speak concretely about its results. The White House has blown by deadlines related to the program, such as releasing its screening tool that is meant to identify the communities most in need of such investments, and has also failed to explicitly define what types of communities would be tagged as “disadvantaged.” In comparison, a similar program to Justice40 proposed at the state-level by New York has surpassed the federal one. In December, New York finalized its draft definition for disadvantaged communities, and took the program a step further than Biden’s: The state committed to measuring direct investments rather than the vague “benefit” of investments used by the White House.

Biden environmental aide leaving White House - - David Kieve is set to leave his role as public engagement director at the White House's Council on Environmental Quality, the CEQ confirmed Monday. Kieve, the husband of White House communications director Kate Bedingfield, was one of the Biden campaign’s point people on outreach to environmentalist and climate groups during the 2020 campaign. His departure comes days after the exit of another CEQ official, Senior Director of Environmental Justice Cecilia Martinez. “By having both a great understanding of policy and a knack for bringing people together and listening, David has helped ensure that the President’s climate and environmental agenda reflects the ideas and needs of people and communities whose voices haven’t always been heard,” CEQ Chair Brenda Mallory said in a statement Monday. “David has been the type of person to open the White House door a little wider, and to invite people in to the President’s vision for a cleaner, healthier, and more equitable future.” “David is a critical member of the Biden Administration, who has worked tirelessly on the President’s behalf since the early days of the primary campaign. His advocacy and work on climate issues has made him an important ambassador for the President to the climate community, rallying their support behind our ambitious agenda to tackle the climate crisis, the existential threat of our time.”

U.S. greenhouse gas emissions rose in 2021 as coal use spiked, Rhodium Group says - The Washington Post U.S. greenhouse gas emissions roared back in 2021, the latest indicator that the country remains far off track from meeting President Biden’s ambitious climate change targets for the end of this decade. A 17 percent surge in coal-fired electricity helped drive an overall increase of 6.2 percent in greenhouse gas emissions compared with the previous year, according to an analysis published Monday by the Rhodium Group. While emissions remained below pre-pandemic levels, it marked the first annual increase in reliance on the nation’s dirtiest fossil fuel since 2014, the independent research firm said.The rise in the nation’s emissions, which many experts anticipate will continue this year, is a sign of an economy on the mend. But it also signals a potentially ominous climate reality: The United States is not yet emerging from the coronavirus pandemic with a greener economy, making it that much harder for Biden to deliver on his pledge to cut the nation’s emissions in half by 2030. “In an ideal world, we want the economy to rebound, but not the emissions,” Larsen added that the surge in coal generation was “almost entirely due to high natural gas prices” as oil and gas producers curbed new production in response to lower global demand because of pandemic lockdowns. “Emissions from our power sector were pretty much at the whim of energy markets,” she said. The nation’s largest source of greenhouse gas emissions — transportation — also saw the steepest rebound during 2021, rising 10 percent over the previous year, Rhodium found. The arrival of coronavirus vaccines and the nation’s fitful efforts to emerge from the pandemic meant more Americans traveled on roads and in the skies than in 2020. But road freight was the only mode of transportation that rebounded to pre-pandemic levels, as thousands of diesel-powered trucks rumbled along the nation’s highways to deliver consumer goods.

U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions Bounced Back Sharply in 2021 - — America’s greenhouse gas emissions from energy and industry rose 6.2 percent in 2021 as the economy began recovering from pandemic lows and the nation’s coal plants roared back to life, according to a preliminary estimate published Mondayby the Rhodium Group.The rebound was not a total surprise: The nation’s emissions hadplummeted more than 10 percent in 2020, the largest one-year drop on record, after the initial coronavirus outbreak triggered widespread lockdowns and energy use plunged to its lowest level in decades. As restrictions eased and economic activity picked back up, emissions were expected to bounce back.“If anything, last year’s rebound in emissions was lower than it could have been because the pandemic is still causing disruptions and the economy isn’t back to normal,” said Kate Larsen, a partner at the Rhodium Group, a research and consulting firm. “Emissions are still well below 2019 levels.”The uptick in emissions underscored the challenges President Biden faces in his quest to shift the nation away from oil, gas and coal and help avert a drastic rise in global temperatures.Mr. Biden has set a goal of slashing the nation’s greenhouse gas emissions at least 50 percent below 2005 levels by 2030, which is roughly the pace that scientists say the whole world must follow to keep the Earth from warming more than 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit) above preindustrial levels and minimize the risk of catastrophic effects. The planet has already warmed 1.1 degrees Celsius over the past century.But after last year’s rebound, U.S. emissions are now just 17.4 percent below 2005 levels, the Rhodium Group estimated. Severalrecent studies have found that the United States is likely to fall far short of achieving Mr. Biden’s climate goals without major new policies to speed up the transition to wind, solar and other clean energy. Whether Mr. Biden can enact these policies is a major question: His Build Back Better Act — which contains $555 billion in spending and tax incentives for renewable power, electric cars and other climate programs — remains in limbo on Capitol Hill. Senator Joe Manchin III of West Virginia, a crucial Democratic swing vote, has so far balked at supporting the legislation, though Democrats are expected to try again this year. Republicans have uniformly opposed the bill.

Carbon dioxide pipeline backers plan public meetings as group expresses safety concerns A company planning a 1,418-mile carbon-capture pipeline will start meeting this week with west-central Illinois residents who live near the 125 miles of the pipeline that will go through the region. Under initial plans, the Heartland Greenway system would go through Brown, Scott, Morgan and Sangamon counties. A separate line would tap into the system near the Adams-Schuyler counties line, carrying captured carbon dioxide through Henry, Knox, McDonough and Schuyler counties. It would carry carbon dioxide from South Dakota to a sequestration site in Christian County, east of Jacksonville. The gas is a byproduct of the manufacturing process. Instead of allowing it to be released into the atmosphere, carbon sequestration captures the emissions. They are dehydrated and compressed into a liquid form that can travel through pipelines to a storage location. There, it is injected and stored about 6,400 feet into a sandstone formation that is more than twice as deep as any water source. To get to the sequestration site, the pipeline would enter Illinois in Hancock County and cut through Brown County, into the northeast corner of Pike County, northern Scott County above Bluffs, into Morgan County and continue north of Chapin across the county, entering Sangamon County southwest of New Berlin. At full capacity, the pipeline would be able to capture up to 15 million metric tons of carbon dioxide — equivalent to what is produced each year by 3.2 million vehicles — and keep it from the air, according to Heartland Greenway owner Navigator CO2 Ventures. That, it said, would be like eliminating "the carbon footprint of (the) Des Moines metro area three times over."

CO2 pipeline project to pick up emissions from Grand Forks ammonia plant - The operator of a pipeline slated to transport carbon dioxide into North Dakota for disposal intends to pick up emissions captured from an ammonia plant planned for Grand Forks. Pipeline developer Summit Carbon Solutions and ammonia plant developer Northern Plains Nitrogen announced the partnership Monday. Northern Plains Nitrogen's facility plans to supply low-carbon, nitrogen-based fertilizer products to farmers in the northern United States and Canada, according to a statement. The company expects to capture 500,000 tons per year of carbon dioxide, a greenhouse gas that contributes to climate change. "By partnering with Summit Carbon Solutions to capture, transport and permanently store carbon dioxide, we will further reduce the carbon intensity of our products," CEO Don Pottinger said. Summit proposes to inject the ammonia plant's emissions into rocks deep underground in Oliver and Mercer counties where its pipeline system is slated to end. The company is planning a large system that would extend 2,000 miles across the Dakotas, Minnesota, Nebraska and Iowa. The system would primarily transport carbon emissions from ethanol plants across the region.

ADM wants to build a carbon capture pipeline across Iowa - Archer Daniel Midlands Co. said Tuesday it had reached an agreement for construction of a pipeline that would be used to capture and sequester carbon emissions from its eastern Iowa ethanol plants. It isthe third carbon-capture pipeline proposed in Iowa.The Chicago-based agricultural products company said it signed a letter of intent with Denver-based Wolf Carbon Solutions, which would build the 350-mile pipeline serving ADM's ethanol plants inCedar Rapids and Clinton.ADM said Wolf would develop, own and operate the pipeline. It would transport liquefied carbon dioxide to an underground sequestration site in Decatur, Illinois.ADM didn't immediately provide the price tag for the project or a map indicating the pipeline's path. It and Wolf said they expect to capture and transport 12 million tons a year of CO2.The companies said the pipeline would have "significant spare capacity to serve other third-party customers looking to decarbonize across the Midwest and Ohio River Valley."Last year, Ames-based Summit Carbon Solutions and Texas-based Navigator CO2 Ventures announced projects that would capture carbon dioxide from ethanol and other industrial agriculture plants in Iowa and other Midwestern states, use pressure to liquefy the greenhouse gas and transport it through pipelines to locations where it would be permanently sequestered deep underground.Navigator and Summit said the projects are needed to help ethanol production and other energy-intensive agricultural industries remain viable as the nation seeks to cut net greenhouse gas emissions in half by 2030 to help moderate climate change. Iowa is the largest U.S. producer of ethanol, which absorbs about half of the state's nation-leading corn crop.But the projects have been controversial in Iowa, garnering opposition from state and county officials, residents, farmers and landowners, who are concerned about damage to drainage tiles beneath farm, fields, reduced crop yields and the possible use of eminent domain to force rights-of-way purchases and access.“Carbon capture and storage is an unproven and unsound technology that will do nothing to mitigate the climate crisis," said Emma Schmit, a Food & Water Watch organizer in Iowa.Navigator CO2 proposes to sequester carbon in Decatur, where ADM operates a sequestration site. Summit proposes to sequester its carbon in North Dakota.

Lucid Advancing CCS Project for Permian Delaware Natural Gas Processing Complex - Permian Basin natural gas processor Lucid Energy Group has been given the green light to advance a carbon sequestration project at its Red Hills Complex in Lea County, NM. Lucid, sponsored by entities of Riverstone Holdings LLC and Goldman Sachs Asset Management, said the Environmental Protection Agency approved its monitoring, reporting and verification (MRV) plan to store carbon dioxide (CO2) from the Delaware sub-basin complex. Once it gains approval from the Internal Revenue Service to use CO2 sequestration tax credits under Section 45Q, the Dallas-based firm said the carbon capture and sequestration (CCS) project would permanently store emissions in existing and permitted disposal wells. “Since our entry to the Delaware Basin five years ago, Lucid has targeted investments in large-scale gas treating assets, which empower our customers to develop highly economic drilling locations” with associated gas, CEO Mike Latchem said. The company is “the perfect candidate” to develop the project in the Permian “by simply modifying and expanding our existing operations.” The CCS plan “is scalable and provides growth capacity, enabling Lucid to offer a lower-carbon-intensity service to its customers and reduced carbon footprint to its stakeholders,” management noted. Lucid, considered one of the largest private midstream operators in the Permian, has 2,000-plus miles of pipeline in operation,150,000 hp compression and 1.2 Bcf of gas processing capacity in operation or under construction. Under the MRV plan, the CO2 would be removed when gas is processed and treated at Red HIlls for customers’ gas streams. Lucid provides midstream services to more than 50 customers in New Mexico and West Texas, including ExxonMobil and Marathon Oil Corp. The Red Hills complex is the largest, with five plants and combined capacity of 920 MMcf/d. The Roadrunner plant in the Permian provides 220 MMcf/d capacity, with the Artesia facility offering 40 MMcf/d. Lucid also has 60 MMcf/d of sour gas treatment capacity in the Permian, along with a water gathering system that has 150,000 barrels/day of capacity. Occidental Petroleum Corp., one of the Permian’s largest oil and gas producers, is advancing a different kind of carbon sequestration project. A decision on whether to move forward on its massive direct air capture (DAC) project is expected this year. If it is sanctioned, the DAC facility could be in operation by 2024, capturing up to 1 million metric tons/year of emissions from the air. Last year Oxy also inked an agreement for a CCS project that would help reduce emissions from NextDecade Corp.’s proposed Rio Grande liquefied natural gas export facility in South Texas.

Biden’s $3.5 Billion Green Investment on Carbon Capture Was the Easy Part – Bloomberg -To avoid catastrophic global warming, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change estimates, humans will need to remove 100 billion tons to 1 trillion tons of carbon dioxide from Earth’s atmosphere by the year 2100. To reach the upper end of the range, we’d have to suck up all the carbon that’s already been emitted this century—and then some. Today global carbon removal stands at about 40 million tons, mostly straight from smokestacks. For purpose-built projects that grab CO₂ from the open air, the number is more like 8,000 tons, at a cost of $600 apiece or more. At that rate there isn’t enough money in the world to get to 1 trillion tons. If there’s a sliver of good news here, it’s that the U.S. government has finally decided to try changing the math. Late last year the U.S. Department of Energy announced what it calls a “carbon negative shot” as part of its Energy Earthshots Initiative: a significant investment in technologies meant to take, eventually, a billion tons of carbon from the air each year for the relatively affordable price of $100 a ton. The bipartisan infrastructure law that passed in mid-November has funded the effort with about $3.5 billion. That’s not exactly climate-curing money, but it represents the government’s first serious investment in such remediation efforts.

CCS 'red flag?' World's sole coal project hits snag - The world’s sole carbon capture project on a large power plant caught 43 percent fewer metric tons of carbon dioxide in 2021 compared with the year before, according to new data from the Canadian utility company operating the project.SaskPower said the drop in captured emissions at the Boundary Dam Power Station near Estevan, Saskatchewan, stems from challenges with the main CO2 compressor motor — forcing its carbon capture and storage (CCS) facility to go offline for multiple months last year.The plant’s backers say the technical issues have been addressed, but critics of carbon capture technology say they are a sign the technology shouldn’t be funded at large coal power plants.Boundary Dam started operations in the fall of 2014 and became the world’s only power plant with carbon capture after NRG Energy’s Petra Nova facility in Texas went offline in mid-2020 (E&E News PM, July 28, 2020).Joel Cherry, a SaskPower spokesperson, said the issues SaskPower encountered with the compressor were “exceptional events” and that the company expects a higher capture rate for this year.“The recent unplanned outages are only ones we have ever had as a result of issues [with] the compressor/motor,” Cherry said in an email.“SaskPower is conducting in-depth analyses to understand the root cause of these new equipment issues, and are putting plans and strategies in place to manage these risks moving forward,” Cherry added.Still, the company’s data showing the CCS facility captured roughly 44 percent of its 90 percent maximum capacity is triggering criticism that Boundary Dam’s Unit 3 is trapping a small fraction of its emissions. The coal plant’s original yearly CO2 capture target was 1 million metric tons of greenhouse gas, according to SaskPower. “The fact that Petra Nova and Boundary Dam both experienced frequent outages during just a few years of operations should serve as a red flag for policymakers and investors considering coal carbon capture proposals,” said Joe Smyth, research and communications manager at the Energy and Policy Institute, in an email.

DOE funding small cos to pursue clean energy solutions --The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) has announced $35 million in funding for “diverse small businesses to pursue scientific, clean energy, and climate solutions”. According to the DOE, the funding will support 158 projects across 29 states that will aim to develop an array of clean energy technology, from climate research tools to improved batteries for electric vehicles. The DOE noted that this investment will create good-paying jobs, build a diverse climate workforce, and help achieve President Biden’s goal of a net-zero carbon economy by 2050. The funding is administered by DOE’s Small Business Innovation Research (SBIR) and Small Business Technology Transfer (STTR) programs, DOE highlighted. SBIR/STTR awardees have reported over $1.7 billion in sales resulting from funding awards, the DOE revealed, adding that recently developed technologies include the measurement of nanoscale chemical interactions, automation across multiple industries, and the measurement of aerosol levels for climate research. “Supporting small businesses will ensure we are tapping into all of America’s talent to develop clean energy technologies that will help us tackle the climate crisis,” U.S. Secretary of Energy Jennifer M. Granholm said in a government statement. “DOE’s investments will enable these economic engines to optimize and commercialize their breakthroughs, while developing the next generation of climate leaders and helping to build a sustainable future to benefit all Americans,” Granholm added in the statement

Postal Service: Here’s the price tag for 100% EVs - E&E News -The U.S. Postal Service, which has been criticized for its plan to buy tens of thousands of gas-burning delivery trucks, estimates that it could in fact go all-electric if Congress gives it at least $3.3 billion.That is one of the conclusions of a final environmental impact statement that the semi-independent agency released on Friday.At issue is the Next Generation Delivery Vehicle, a truck that the service plans to start using over the next decade. During that time, USPS plans to replace up to 165,000 trucks of its 212,000-strong fleet. One of the world’s largest civilian fleets is falling into disrepair, with most of the trucks having been put into service before Bill Clinton became president.Early last year, USPS set a course to have almost all of the vehicles run on gasoline, with 10 percent set aside as electric. In August, the Postal Service said electric versions of new mail trucks would have higher costs and were "unfeasible and impractical" for the service’s longest routes (Energywire, Aug. 27, 2021).That plan angered some congressional Democrats who said it countered President Biden’s goal of converting the federal vehicle fleet to electric, thus stimulating the market for EVs and helping to turn the tide on climate change. In December, Biden issued an executive order asking the U.S. government to buy only EVs by 2035.The new USPS document, in essence, defended the service’s decision while saying the electrification goal is in reach if Congress gives USPS a lot more money."The Proposed Action is the most achievable given the Postal Service’s financial condition," USPS said in the statement. The service has experienced losses of more than $87 billion since 2007, according to the Government Accountability Office, as the volume of mail it delivers has dropped.The agency estimated that it could electrify 75,000 of its vehicles for $2.3 billion. It added that the entire fleet could be electrified with the additional expense of more than $1 billion. USPS seemed warm to the possibility, saying that it “is seeking additional funding to increase this quantity.”The Democrats’ "Build Back Better Act," which faces an uncertain fate in Congress, could go a long way toward providing those funds. The version of the bill passed in the House in November included $2.5 billion for USPS to buy electric vehicles and another $3.4 billion for charging infrastructure at postal buildings. The bill’s scope is shrinking as it is negotiated in the Senate.The EIS compared the climate impact of its preferred 10 percent plan versus an all-electric fleet. A future mail fleet made up of only 10 percent EVs would reduce direct yearly tailpipe CO2 emissions by almost 257,000 metric tons. Going all-electric would more than double that, to 537,000 metric tons.Patricio Portillo, a transportation analyst at the Natural Resources Defense Council, said it is hard to evaluate USPS’s dollar request because the new analysis offered little supporting data.He characterized it as “We’re just going to wave our hand and say it’s really expensive.” “It doesn’t seem they’ve done their homework," he said.

European carriers are flying thousands of near-empty planes this winter to keep their airport slots - Airlines in Europe this winter are flying passenger planes that are at times nearly empty in order to hold onto coveted take-off and landing spots at airports during a time of lower travel demand. Recent publicity around this usage requirement has sparked controversy and anger at a time of growing international concern over climate change and the carbon emissions created by the aviation industry. Airport industry representatives, meanwhile, are defending it, arguing for the need to maintain commercial viability, connectivity and competitiveness. Airlines have expressed frustration over so-called "use it or lose it" slot rules established by the European Commission, the EU's executive arm, which was suspended in March 2020 as the industry was floored by the Covid-19 pandemic. It has since been brought back incrementally to now require airlines to use 50% of their allocated airport slots. That figure is scheduled to increase to 80% this summer. German carrier Lufthansa is among those airlines, and is already cutting some 33,000 flights over the winter season as the omicron variant hobbles demand. Still, it has to make 18,000 flights over the winter season to meet its slot use requirement, its CEO said. Its subsidiary Brussels Airlines is having to make 3,000 almost-empty flights by the end of March. "Due to the weak demand in January, we would have reduced significantly more flights," Lufthansa Group CEO Carsten Spohr told a German newspaper in late December. "But we have to make 18,000 additional, unnecessary flights in winter just to secure our take-off-and-landing rights." He added: "While climate-friendly exemptions were found in almost all other parts of the world during the time of the pandemic, the EU does not allow this in the same way. That harms the climate and is exactly the opposite of what the EU Commission wants to achieve with its 'Fit for 55' program."

Air France-KLM adds biofuel surcharge to plane tickets - Air France-KLM said Monday it would add a surcharge of up to 12 euros ($13,50) on its tickets to try to offset the cost of using more expensive sustainable aviation fuel. Air France said that the fuel levy would be added to tickets from January 10. Travellers in economy class will pay between one and four euros more while those in business class will pay between 1.5 euros and 12 euros, depending on the distance to their destination, it said in a message to its clients. Air France's Dutch partner KLM and low-cost subsidiary Transavia will also implement the surcharge on flights departing from France and the Netherlands, the company announced, adding that it replaces between 0.5 percent and one percent of the kerosene it uses with the sustainable alternative. Sustainable aviation fuel or SAF is chiefly made from used cooking oil or from forestry or agricultural waste. It allows airlines to reduce carbon emissions by 75 percent compared with kerosene over the lifecycle of the fuel. Jet fuel currently accounts for between 20 and 30 percent of airlines' costs. Take-up of SAF, which is between four and eight times more expensive, has been slow. Current production levels fall far below what would be required to power the world's aircraft fleet. In 2019, sustainable fuel represented less than 0.1 percent of the 360 billion litres of fuel used by the aviation industry. Air France said it was confident that the cost of SAF would fall as more European countries begin mass producing them. On Thursday, the airline will start offering passengers who are anxious to reduce the carbon footprint of their flight the chance to make a donation towards the purchase of extra sustainable fuel. Air France vowed that every euro donated would be invested in SAF. Air traffic accounts for between 2.5 and three percent of global carbon emissions. The industry aims to become carbon neutral by 2050, both by investing in jets that guzzle less kerosene and by using cleaner fuel. Under a new law that took effect in France on January 1, airlines refuelling in the country are required to use at least one percent of sustainable fuel in their fuel mix—a proportion set to increase to two percent in 2025 and five percent in 2030.

Customers are furious after energy supplier tells customers to cuddle pets to keep warm -A British energy supplier has apologized for the "poorly judged and unhelpful" advice sent to customers which suggested they could snuggle up to their pets and exercise to cut back on their heating bills.SSE, which is owned by OVO Energy, suggested 10 "simple and cost effective ways to keep warm this winter," according to the Financial Times, which first reported the story.Eating bowls of oatmeal, doing star jumps and cuddling pets were among the recommendations on the now-deleted web page.In a statement sent to CNN Tuesday, a spokesperson for OVO Energy said: "Recently a link to a blog containing energy saving tips was sent to customers. We understand how difficult the situation will be for many of our customers this year.""We are working hard to find meaningful solutions as we approach this energy crisis, and we recognise that the content of this blog was poorly judged and unhelpful. We are embarrassed and sincerely apologize," the spokesperson added.British consumers will pay roughly £790 ($1,075) more to heat and light their homes this year, according to Bank of America. Wholesale European gas prices have jumped by 400% over the previous year and electricity prices have increased by 300%, the bank's analysts said last week. The increases have been driven by cold weather, nuclear plant outages in France and reduced gas flow from Russia.

35 Groups Urge Governor Carney to Oppose Biogas Infrastructure Development in Delaware — Food & Water Watch --Today, 35 groups from across the Delmarva region issued a letter to Governor Carney, urging his opposition to factory farm biogas infrastructure development moving forward in Delaware. The controversial Bioenergy DevCo biogas schemein Sussex County currently seeking state permits will be the first facility of its kind in the state and region. Groups warn that the project is only the start of what could be a destructive regional industry buildout, if allowed unchecked.Letter signatories cited a host of concerns with the Bioenergy DevCo biogas operation, including:

• Traffic and the safety of public roads: The methane refinery Bioenergy DevCo has planned would bring at least 20,000 heavy-duty truck trips per year (or more than 50 every day) to local roads. A yet undisclosed number of the trucks added to local roads would be hauling explosive gas – sometimes called “truck bombs.”
• Air quality: Biogas facilities emit smog-forming nitrogen oxides, ammonia, and hydrogen sulfide. These chemicals are known to cause chronic lung disease and other respiratory ailments like asthma, and would directly affect health in nearby neighborhoods.
• Water quality: The waste at biogas facilities inevitably seeps into the soil either through mismanagement at the site or land application to fields, and has the potential to poison local drinking water with nitrate contamination that is linked to birth defects, miscarriages, various cancers and blue baby syndrome.
• Environmental justice: The community surrounding Bioenergy DevCo’s proposed biogas facility is home to people of color at almost twice the rate of Sussex County as a whole and home to people living in poverty at almost three times the rate of Sussex County as a whole. To place a dirty and dangerous industrial plant for the sole purpose of extracting gas (and generating profit) from slaughterhouse sludge in this community is simply unjust.

In the letter, groups requested that Governor Carney direct the Delaware Department of Natural Resources and Environmental Control to reject Bioenergy DevCo’s sought-after permits and oppose all buildout of biogas infrastructure.

Boston Is Burning The Midnight Oil To Keep The Lights On Tonight -- January 10, 2022 -- Holy mackerel, electricity demand is hardly that remarkable in New England but yet to meet demand, fourteen percent of ISO NE's electricity is being generated by oil! Link here. Electricity prices in NE are surging (again) tonight and electricity demand is hardly noteworthy. Sixth decile. But look at this:

• oil: 14%
• renewables: only 10%; two-thirds of that generated by burning oil; and, of course,
• when burning that much oil, one is probably burning coal, and they are:
• coal: 3%

It's almost criminal -- if Texas was generating fourteen percent of its electricity by burning oil we would never hear the end of it. And for New England, they are but a few miles from the largest reservoir of natural gas in the universe. This is simply amazing. I had no clue that Boston would burn so much oil to keep electricity prices palatable. I only thought Saudi Arabia wasted their natural resource this way. I have no idea what the temperature was this afternoon in north Texas, in the DFW area. All I know was that I could ride my bike in a short-sleeve, light shirt. It was incredibly unseasonably nice. If this is global warming, I'm all in.

US New England power prices jump to four-year high as region freezes - (Reuters) - U.S. power prices in New England for Tuesday jumped to their highest since January 2018 as homes and businesses cranked up their heaters to escape the region's coldest day of the winter. Temperatures in Boston will only reach 16 Fahrenheit (-9 Celsius) on Tuesday before rising to a near-normal 39 F on Wednesday, according to AccuWeather. Since most New England homes and businesses use gas for heat and much of the region's electricity comes from gas-fired power plants, electric and gas prices usually soar during extremely cold weather. Next-day power prices jumped to $186 per megawatt hour (MWh), their highest since January 2018. That compares with $50.89 per MWh in 2021 and a five-year (2016-2020) average of $37.05. Spot gas prices were also much higher than normal at $20.50 per million British thermal unit (mmBtu), but remained below last week's high of $24.47. New England does not have enough gas pipeline capacity to supply all the fuel needed for both heat and power generation on the coldest days, so many gas-fired plants switch to more expensive oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) when temperatures drop. So far on Tuesday, the region's power generators were getting all the gas they needed and the grid operator, ISO New England, said the system was operating normally. The ISO said it had 23,672 megawatts (MW) of power resources available to meet Tuesday's forecast peak demand of 20,200 MW. About 42% of the power generated in New England Tuesday morning came from gas, 23% from nuclear, 16% from oil, 16% from renewables and 3% from coal. That compares with 52% gas, 27% nuclear, 20% renewables and around 0% oil and coal on average in 2020. During the coldest part of the winter of 2017/2018, oil generation reached 27% of the regional fuel mix.

Vermont fuel transporters poised to work extra hours - In a emergency declaration released Friday night, the Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration is now allowing Vermont fuel transporters to work extra hours and on weekends to get people the fuel they need to stay warm.This applies to all types of heating fuel transport, including propane, natural gas, and heating oil.The Vermont Fuel Dealer’s Association’s companies deliver fuel to three out of every four Vermont homes, especially this busy time of year.Leaders tell us half of Vermonters heats their homes with oil and twenty percent use propane.Executive Director Matt Cota says the work of truck drivers is essential.“People hear emergency and often are concerned, ‘Is there not fuel?’” Cota said. “Absolutely, the fuel is there, but because of a shortage of truck drivers, because of the virus, we want to make sure those trucks stay on the road over the weekend, later at night, to ensure the fuel gets to where it needs to go in the customers tanks.”Vermont is one of 29 states, as well as Washington D.C., that’s been granted this emergency relief.

Finally, Bloomberg admits renewables mania caused energy shortages - Michael Shellenberger - Between 2017 and 2021, Environmental Progress and I researched and published dozens of articles, testified before Congress, and authored a book, Apocalypse Never, arguing that weather-dependent renewables were making electricity increasingly unreliable and expensive, and making the United States, Europe, and Asia, dangerously dependent on natural gas. In response, there was an organized and somewhat successful effort by progressive climate-renewables activists to cut off our funding, censor us on Facebook, and prevent me from testifying before Congress. But now, one of the biggest boosters of natural gas and renewables, media giant Bloomberg, whose owner, Michael Bloomberg, is directly invested in natural gas and renewables, has published an article conceding and substantiating almost every single point we have made over the years. “Europe Sleepwalked Into an Energy Crisis That Could Last Years,” screams the headline. The article concludes that the crisis was “years in the making” because Europe is “shutting down coal-fired electricity plants and increasing its reliance on renewables.” Bloomberg still pulls its punches and misdescribes the situation in some ways. The article, like many other Bloomberg articles, mislabels the deployment of renewables as an “energy transition” similar to past transitions from wood to coal and coal to natural gas, failing to acknowledge that the poor physics of energy-dilute renewables make that impossible. And it suggests that Europe’s energy crisis is the result of ignorance. “The energy crisis hit the bloc,” notes a renewable energy PR person, “when security of supply was not on the menu of EU policymakers,” ignoring the reality that I and others warned EU policymakers of this very crisis. But, to its credit, the article acknowledges that the energy crisis is a direct result of Europe over-investing in unreliable renewables and under-investing in reliable energy sources. “Wind and solar are cleaner but sometimes fickle,” the authors admit, in the understatement of the year, “as illustrated by the sudden drop in turbine-generated power the continent recorded last year.” (I was the first U.S. journalist to report Germany saw its emissions rise 25% in the first half of 2021 due to lack of wind.)

Tesla unveils its giant Megapack battery project in Texas - Tesla has unveiled its giant new Megapack battery project in Texas in a new Youtube video. It’s one of the biggest yet. Texas is having to rethink its electric grid after bad weather last winter put so much pressure on the grid that it pushed it to the brink of failure. The strain resulted in many regions having rolling blackouts, and a lot of people are rethinking their energy situation.Residential energy storage has gained popularity with homeowners in Texas since the crisis as they don’t want to rely on the grid too much. Electric utilities are also turning to energy storage on a bigger scale, and there has been a big project underway in Angleton near Houston.Tesla was revealed to behind the secretive big battery project in Texas early last year. Now the company has unveiled the 81-Megapack project in a new Youtube video: The project has a capacity of 100 MW/200 MWh – making it one of the biggest Tesla energy storage projects in the world. Hopefully, it will help soften the blow if an event similar to last February’s happens again, but the Texas grid is going to need to add a lot more backup power.As we previously reported, Tesla has been approved to be an energy distributor in the state of Texas. The move is part of CEO Elon Musk’s vision for Tesla Energy to become a distributed global utility, an endeavor that could even outgrow the company’s automotive business.

Lawsuit moves forward against Merrimack Station coal-burning plant — A federal judge has allowed a lawsuit to proceed against the owners of the Merrimack Station coal burning power plant in Bow. U.S. District Court Judge Joseph Laplante ruled that enough evidence exists about the harmful temperatures of the water that the plant operator, Granite Shore Power LLC, uses to cool turbines and then discharges into the Merrimack River. Granite Shore had sought summary judgment, a key point in a case where a defendant tries to get a lawsuit thrown out based on the law. “This is about significant impacts to the Merrimack River over the years. The decision paves the way for us to now make our case at trial in court,” said Tom Irwin, director of Conservation Law Foundation-New Hampshire, which filed suit along with the Sierra Club. The 482-megawatt power plant operates when demand surges. It is the target of occasional protests. This past weekend, four protestors were arrested at the Bow plant, two who chained themselves to the base of the stack and two who scaled a tower to hang a banner that read “shut it down.” Most protests focus on the air emissions and their effect on climate change. But the lawsuit dwells on the effect on river water. Merrimack Station uses water from the river to cool turbines and then returns heated water to the river. The March 2019 suit claims that the heated water violates the terms of the plant’s EPA license because it blocks the zone of fish passage, changes indigenous populations and has substantial contact with surrounding shorelines. In his ruling, Laplante said testimony from experts convinced him that enough material facts are in dispute that the case can move forward. Scientists found that the thermal limit for cold-water species such as brook trout, alewives and yellow perch was exceeded during four periods studied, he pointed out. The Hooksett Pool, where the water is discharged, has conditions that favor warm-water fish, Laplante wrote, quoting the scientists. The judge agreed with Granite Shore lawyers that the discharge did not amount to waste and sewage disposal and issued summary judgment on claims that it violated New Hampshire water quality standards.

'It's like the Wild West': Kentucky No. 2 in nation for new cryptocurrency mining operations — The Commonwealth of Kentucky has long been known for mining. While coal mining, the traditional and most well-known type, continues to dwindle, a new kind of mining is finding its way to Kentucky: Cryptocurrency. Cryptocurrency is a type of digital currency that generally only exists electronically. Transactions are verified and records maintained by a decentralized system using cryptography rather than a centralized authority. Although there are more than 8,000 cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin is the more popular and sought-after type. Cryptocurrencies are encrypted with blockchain technology and used to purchase goods and services or trade for profit. Bitcoin, in particular, has proved particularly volatile, surging to $68,000 per coin for the first time on Nov. 10, 2021, before dropping below $54,000 multiple times after that.Mining cryptocurrency requires lots of electricity. Kentucky has become a haven for the industry in recent months because of its lower-than-average energy costs and recent crypto-specific bills passed by the state legislature — Senate Bill 255 extends the commonwealth's clean energy-focused incentives to crypto miners that invest at least $1 million in equipment and House Bill 230 similarly offers miners a series of sales and excise tax breaks. Crowder said Kentucky coal baron and billionaire Joe Craft has started mining cryptocurrency at some of his coal mine sites in the western part of the commonwealth. “The big benefit, in addition to the jobs, is they will be a large energy consumer on the Cumberland Valley Electric grid, and the type of consumption that they’re generating from that particular facility will help overall from future rate increases for customers on that service,” said Dan Mosley, Harlan County Judge-Executive. Crowder said therecent surge of crypto mining in Kentucky and other parts of the United States is the result of China halting all cryptocurrency mining in the spring of 2021. Kentucky is also a popular destination because of its hydroelectric and wind power and the ability to connect to power sources such as natural gas and coal. “When China stopped mining crypto because of its energy consumption, billions of dollars worth of servers that just overnight needed a home,” Crowder said. “All these Chinese businessmen are trying to find a way to get back on their feet and start mining again. The U.S. is one of the most attractive places to mine, and these guys are looking for cheap power. Kentucky has some pretty attractive energy prices. The problem is they need a lot of power — 100 to 200 megawatts that don’t come quickly — and there's a process for that. It's going to take a ton of time and some serious financing. None of these guys are bankable. None of them is investment grade because they've only been around a few years, and nobody trusts cryptocurrencies. It's the Wild West and it's super-fascinating how it's all unfolding.”

Ameren says it is 'not sitting on its hands' amid push to retire coal plant — Ameren said on Friday in new court filings that it is not dragging its feet in the early retirement of its second-biggest coal plant — a closure the U.S. Department of Justice argued should happen even sooner.The St. Louis-based electric utility said the early retirement of its embattled Rush Island Energy Center in Jefferson County “is not a simple matter.” “Rush Island cannot be hastily disconnected from the grid without careful evaluation of potential impacts,” Ameren said in its filing, referencing possible effects on the stability and reliability of the broader electric grid and transmission system.The company is studying those possible impacts alongside the regional grid operator, the Midcontinent Independent System Operator. Ameren proposed holding a hearing in the legal case next month, after analysis by MISO is expected to be complete.

Coal was dying and emissions were falling. Then 2021 happened. -Coal was supposed to be on its deathbed. For the past seven years, coal use in America has been trending down. Faced with falling natural gas prices and the growth in wind and solar energy, coal plants from Illinois to New Mexico closed their doors. In 2005, coal plants generated 2 trillion kilowatt-hours of American power; by 2020, that number had been cut by more than half. And as coal vanished, replaced by less carbon-intensive natural gas, U.S. greenhouse gas emissions edged down. In 2020, as the COVID-19 pandemic cratered carbon dioxide emissions overall, coal use fell by a whopping 19 percent. Then 2021 happened. According to a report released Monday by the energy research firm Rhodium Group, coal use rebounded for the first time since 2014, growing 17 percent in 2021. That coincided with a rebound in overall greenhouse gas emissions as the economy slowly recovered from the COVID-19 pandemic. In 2020, U.S. emissions fell by 10.3 percent, the largest drop since World War II; in 2021, they climbed 6.2 percent — not returning to 2019 emission levels, but perilously close.That’s bad news for the climate. Over the past decade, most of the United States’ emissions cuts have come from cheap natural gas replacing coal. But last year, rising natural gas prices helped resuscitate the dirtiest fossil fuel. A cold winter and declining supply sent natural gas prices skyrocketing to more than double their 2020 average. In response, utilities leaned more on coal to generate electricity across the country — and emissions climbed. The same story played out elsewhere. In China and India, coal production surged in 2021, sending global emissions nearly all the way back to pre-2020 highs. The return of coal shows that “the progress we’ve made over the past couple of decades is at the whims of energy markets,” said Kate Larsen, a partner at Rhodium Group and one of the authors of the report. Without strong federal policy, she added, “We don’t have a backstop to prevent this from happening.”

IEEFA U.S.: The coal boom that wasn’t - EIA data confirm long-term decline of fuel’s generation, market share - Preliminary 2021 data from the Energy Information Administration confirm what IEEFA said throughout the year: The long-term-trend in U.S. utility generation continues to move away from fossil fuels, particularly coal, and toward greater renewable energy use.Last year’s coal narrative used the historically low generation totals from 2020 to tout a supposed boom in demand. Coal did indeed recover some market share from its pandemic-induced lows last year—but by November and December, the recovery had evaporated and the fuel’s market share fell below 2020 levels. Not only did coal’s market share fall below 20% for those two months (a level not breached before the pandemic’s arrival in 2020), but it did so despite much higher gas prices and a recovery in power demand. If coal can’t muster a sustained recovery in such conditions, it leaves no doubt that the long-term trend remains the same—downward. On an annual basis, coal’s market share was about 22.6% in 2021, down from 23.3% in 2019, although up from just 19.9% in 2020. This result continues a trend that began in earnest in 2010, with coal-fired generation’s share falling by half since then. This decade will see the decline continue, pushed by two interrelated drivers:

• FIRST, THE UTILITY INDUSTRY IS MOVING AWAY FROM COAL AT AN ACCELERATING PACE. In March 2020, announced coal plant retirements through 2030 totaled 37.4 gigawatts (GW). By the end of 2021, that total had jumped to 93.7 gigawatts, about 45 percent of the existing coal-fired generating capacity. Looking further out, an additional 31 GW of coal-fired capacity is already set for closure from 2030-40. Both totals are certain to grow, since almost half of the roughly 88 GW of capacity with no announced retirement dates is already at least 40 years old, putting those plants at the tail end of their operating lives. At the same time, the plants still operating are doing so less and less, as shown in data from the Energy Information Administration. In 2019, coal’s market share topped 30 percent on 12 days and only fell below 20 percent on 30 days. By 2021, the number of days coal’s share was above 30 percent fell to just five, and fell below 20 percent on 99 days.
• THE SECOND DRIVER IS THE RAPID ADDITION OF WIND, SOLAR AND BATTERY STORAGE RESOURCES, now cheaper than coal across the board. In just two years, total wind generation climbed 28 percent to 83.8 million megawatt-hours (MWh) while solar rose 45 percent to 48.5 million MWh. During that same span, coal fell by 64 million MWh and gas generation dropped by 37 million MWh.The impact of the wind and solar generation increases is evident in their rapidly rising share of the U.S. electricity market: Wind and utility-scale solar supplied 15 percent or more of U.S. electricity needs on 102 days in 2021—up from just four days in 2019.

Blaze at Somerset power plant sends multiple fire companies to scene - One firefighter was injured Friday after a fire that erupted during demolition work at the dormant Somerset power plant filled the sky with black smoke. The injured firefighter was treated at a local hospital, according to a news release from the Niagara County Sheriff's Office. It took six hours to bring the blaze under control. "We have a good handle on the fire," a Barker Fire Company assistant chief broadcast at 10:54 a.m., about an hour and a half after the first 911 call was made. However, nearly two hours later, firefighters still were pouring water on the blaze, with radio transmissions indicating that firefighters asked the Town of Somerset to try to provide more water pressure. A nearby resident told The Buffalo News that black smoke was visible, coming from the plant's smokestack. The Sheriff’s Office said the first firefighters on the scene “observed large amounts of black smoke and visible flames coming from the top of one of the power plant modules in the flue gas desulfurization building.” The release said that John Mason, the operations manager on the scene, reported that “his employees were cutting a hole into a flange of the building in order to place an anchor and tear down the module. While cutting the hole, the rubber liner on the interior of the building started on fire. The fire spread to the wood platform and plastic chevrons inside the building, creating a large amount of black smoke.” After the fire was extinguished, firefighters remained on the scene as a precaution during demolition of the affected building, the news release said.

Illinois AG sues Sugar Camp mine near Benton over 'misuse of forever chemicals' - e Illinois Attorney General's Office is suing the Sugar Camp Coal Mine near Benton following reports the mine dumped 46,000 gallons of hazardous fire-fighting foam in an unsuccessful attempt to extinguish a fire that had been burning underground last year. The foam included at least 660 gallons of concentrated PFAS-based foam deep into the underground mine. Attorney General Kwame Raoul’s lawsuit was filed in Franklin County Circuit Court and includes allegations of water pollution, creating a water pollution hazard, and discharges in violation of the limitations of the company’s National Pollutant Discharge Elimination System (NPDES) permit. Raoul’s lawsuit alleges the pollution is the result of Sugar Camp using firefighting foam containing PFAS in an attempt to extinguish an underground fire that erupted at its mine facility in August. “Sugar Camp jeopardized public safety and irresponsibly violated both state environmental statutes and the constraints of its permit by misusing dangerous ‘forever chemicals’,” Raoul said in a news release. “Exposure to such chemicals can cause long-lasting damage to the environment and poses a serious risk to public health. My office will work to ensure that Sugar Camp is held accountable for the damage it has done by using these chemicals.” According to Raoul’s lawsuit, an underground fire broke out in one of the Sugar Camp Mine’s two longwall mines on or around Aug. 14. Raoul alleges that Sugar Camp used firefighting foams containing PFAS to extinguish the fire. The Illinois Environmental Protection Agency subsequently received a citizen complaint regarding firefighting foam being discovered in a farm field ditch and a tributary to Akin Creek, located near the facility. The Illinois EPA conducted an inspection and found evidence of the firefighting foam in the tributary to Akin Creek and in other nearby areas. Raoul’s complaint alleges that laboratory analysis of water samples revealed the presence of PFAS in the water. Subsequent sampling done by Sugar Camp further revealed the presence of PFAS in the facility’s impoundments and in permitted outfalls. According to environmental and health experts, PFAS is a particularly dangerous chemical and it stays in the environment forever. Exposure to certain types of PFAS is also associated with low birth weight in humans, suppressed immune system response, dyslipidemia, impaired kidney function and delayed onset of menstruation. Raoul’s lawsuit seeks to require Sugar Camp to immediately take corrective action to stop the discharge of PFAS or firefighting foam containing PFAS into nearby waters. The lawsuit also seeks civil penalties of up to $50,000 for each violation, and additional civil penalties of $10,000 for each day the violation continues. In a news release, Sierra Club Illinois and Prairie River Network applauded Raoul's efforts. The two groups, represented by Great Rivers Environmental Law Center and Albert Ettinger, previously filed a Notice of Intent to sue in November.

The Biden Administration Takes Action on Toxic Coal Ash Waste, Targeting Leniency by the Trump EPA - The Biden administration on Tuesday took its first significant move toward corralling lingering and widespread problems with the toxic ash produced by coal-fired power plants, one of the nation’s most prominent long-term environmental health legacies from more than a century of coal-fired electricity generation.In 2015, the EPA under the Obama administration put forth the first national rules on coal ash, which required most of the nation’s approximately 500 unlined coal ash surface impoundments to stop receiving waste and begin closing by April 2021. Those ash dumps, laced with contaminants like mercury, cadmium and arsenic, often pollute groundwater and send particulate air pollution into nearby communities. While the Trump administration allowed utilities to request extensions, the Biden EPA announced Tuesday that it is taking action on nine of 57 extension applications filed, denying three, approving one, finding four incomplete and ruling one ineligible. More determinations, EPA officials said, are coming. The EPA also said it was putting several power plants on notice regarding their obligations to comply with rules, and that it was working on plans for future changes to regulations aimed at making sure coal ash dumps meet strong environmental and safety standards.In the agency’s action on the nine requests, environmental lawyers saw reason for optimism.Abel Russ, a senior attorney with the group Environmental Integrity Project, said EPA’s proposed actions show that it understands that utilities are not properly monitoring groundwater in ways that can preclude cleanup requirements.“It’s a start of a process where we hope to see enforcement from multiple levels,” said Russ, the lead author of a 2019 report that used utility records to determine that there were unsafe levels of toxic contaminants in groundwater linked to more than nine out of every 10 coal-fired power plants. The Southern Environmental Law Center, which has litigated and won coal ash cleanup cases in states like North Carolina and South Carolina, said EPA’s determinations set a precedent for compliance nationwide. “The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency has stepped up to offer communities hope and to protect clean water, rivers, and drinking water supplies from the threats posed by coal ash,” said Frank Holleman, a senior attorney at the law center. “With EPA’s leadership, we now have the opportunity to put coal ash pollution and catastrophes behind us and to restore common sense protections for communities across the South who have lived with coal ash contamination for far too long.”

EPA moves to crack down on dangerous coal ash storage ponds — The Environmental Protection Agency is taking its first major action to address toxic wastewater from coal-burning power plants, ordering utilities to stop dumping waste into unlined storage ponds and speed up plans to close leaking or otherwise dangerous coal ash sites. Plants in four states will have to close the coal ash ponds months or years ahead of schedule, the EPA said Tuesday, citing deficiencies with groundwater monitoring, cleanup or other problems. Coal ash, the substance that remains when coal is burned to generate electricity, contains a toxic mix of mercury, cadmium, arsenic and other heavy metals. It can pollute waterways, poison wildlife and cause respiratory illness among those living near massive ponds where the waste is stored. The actions mark the first time the EPA has enforced a 2015 rule aimed at reducing groundwater pollution from coal-fired power plants that has contaminated streams, lakes and underground aquifers. U.S. coal plants produce about 100 million tons (90 million metric tons) annually of ash and other waste. The Obama administration regulated the storage and disposal of toxic coal ash for the first time, including a requirement to close coal-ash dumping ponds that were unstable or contaminated groundwater. The Trump administration weakened the Obama-era rule in 2020, allowing utilities to use cheaper technologies and take longer to comply with pollution reduction guidelines that are less stringent than what the agency originally adopted. EPA Administrator Michael Regan said the actions announced Tuesday will ensure that coal ash ponds meet strong environmental and safety standards and that operators of industrial facilities are held accountable. “I’ve seen firsthand how coal ash contamination can hurt people and communities,'' said Regan, a former North Carolina environmental regulator who negotiated with Duke Energy what state officials say was the largest cleanup agreement for toxic coal ash. “For too long, communities already disproportionately impacted by high levels of pollution have been burdened by improper coal ash disposal,'' Regan said. “Today’s actions will help us protect communities and hold facilities accountable. We look forward to working with our state partners to reverse damage that has already occurred.'' In separate letters sent Tuesday, EPA denied requests for extensions of coal ash permits by the Clifty Creek power plant in Madison, Indiana; James M. Gavin plant in Cheshire, Ohio; and the Ottumwa plant in Ottumwa, Iowa.

Georgia Power coal ash storage plans in limbo after new EPA crack down - The Biden administration unveiled federal coal ash plans Tuesday that could complicate Georgia Power’s plans to leave massive piles of coal ash in unlined pits, where the toxic waste left behind after decades of burning coal for energy sits in groundwater.The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency has announced several proposed steps on coal ash, including plans to enforce an Obama-era rule designed to limit the chances of coal ash toxins leaking into groundwater or waterways.Georgia Power is in the process of seeking permits to install a cover over coal ash ponds at five plants to keep out rainwater, starting with Plant Hammond in northwest Georgia. But at all five locations, the coal ash is submerged at varying depths in the groundwater.The proposed plans “re-state EPA’s consistently held position that surface impoundments or landfills cannot be closed with coal ash in contact with groundwater,” according to a press release issued Tuesday.“I’ve seen firsthand how coal ash contamination can hurt people and communities. Coal ash surface impoundments and landfills must operate and close in a manner that protects public health and the environment,” EPA Administrator Michael S. Regan said in a statement Tuesday.Regan was previously the lead environmental regulator of North Carolina, where a 2014 spill released 39,000 tons of coal ash and 27 million gallons of ash pond water. The impact on Georgia Power’s pending permit applications, though, was not immediately clear. Kevin Chambers, spokesman for the state Environmental Protection Division, said the state agency was informed by the regional EPA office Monday of “the potential change to the performance standards for the closure of coal ash impoundments” under the federal rule. “As a state with primacy to implement the federal CCR rule, we are awaiting further clarifications and discussion with our federal partners. Any impact on pending applications for closure of CCR units is unknown at this time,” Chambers said in a statement.

Major power outage affects 743 000 homes in Buenos Aires, Argentina -An estimated 743 000 households in Argentina's capital Buenos Aires lost power on January 11, 2022, as temperatures soared above 40 °C (104 °F), causing peak energy consumption to cool the homes. The outage has also affected the water purification system, affecting users across the capital.According to the National Electricity Regulatory Entity (ENRE), 700 000 electricity distributor Edenor customers suffered outages and another 43 400 Edesur customers.¹In a statement provided by Edenor, the severe blackout affected the north of the City of Buenos Aires and part of the Greater Buenos Aires after a high voltage line went out of service at around 13:00 LT due to a fire that started in a house in the San Martin district.²By 16:00 LT, some 350 000 users were still without power and more than 60 000 by 21:00.The outages have also affected water purification systems, forcing drinking water provider AySA to urge all residents to optimize the use of water.According to the National Meteorological Service (SMN), the temperatures in the capital exceeded 40 °C (104 °F) and are expected to remain very high throughout the week. Meteorologist Lucas Berengua said that the heat wave is off the charts and could set records in the country.³

Joe Manchin Just Gave Biden a Path for His Green Goals: ‘I’m Big on Nuclear’ - West Virginia Senator Joe Manchin, whose opposition is threatening to derail President Joe Biden’s massive social-spending plan, wants to expand at least one of its climate provisions: a tax credit to keep nuclear plants operating.Manchin, the powerful Democrat from coal- and natural gas-rich West Virginia, backs the credit for nuclear plants that is tucked inside Biden’s Build Back Better legislation. Under the version passed by the House, a credit of as much as $15 per megawatt-hour could be claimed for the next six years. Manchin, whose support is necessary for Senate Democrats to pass the legislation on a party-line vote, wants the tax credit to last 10 years instead, according to three people familiar with the matter.

Nuclear Power Reactors Could Be Way for Nations to Achieve Climate Goals - The green energy transition is hitting some speed bumps, as power shortfalls in Asia and Europe boost global demand for fossil fuels. That’s exposing the pitfalls of relying too much on fickle wind andsolar—and focusing more attention on nuclear energy. Although efforts to battle climate change have been largely dominated by renewables, the International Energy Agency says achieving net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050 will require doubling nuclear power worldwide. It accounted for just 4% of primary energy consumption in 2020, according to BP Plc’sStatistical Review of World Energy. “Nuclear needs to be part of the broader conversation,” says Joseph Majkut, director of the energy security and climate change program at the Center for Strategic & International Studies in Washington, D.C. “We’ll need to build quite a lot to get there.”

 Mass. Lawmakers Condemn Proposal to Dump Radioactive Water Into Cape Cod Bay – NBC Boston - Members of Massachusetts' congressional delegation are pushing back against the proposed dumping of 1 million gallons of radioactive water into Cape Cod Bay.Holtec International, which purchased Plymouth's Pilgrim Nuclear Power Station in 2019, intends to complete the plant's decommissioning by 2024.While Holtec says no final decisions have been made about what it will do with Pilgrim's radioactive waste, many in the area fear it will be released into the bay.Sen. Elizabeth Warren, Sen. Ed Markey, Rep. Bill Keating and Rep. Seth Moulton, all Democrats from Massachusetts, sent a joint letter to Holtec Thursday urging the company to pursue other options."We write to express our opposition to the proposed discharge of radioactive water from Pilgrim Nuclear Power Station (Pilgrim) into Cape Cod Bay," the lawmakers said in the letter. "The strong public opposition to news of the proposed discharge reflects Holtec’s failure to engage in the forthright, open, and transparent process that it promised the Plymouth community and the Commonwealth of Massachusetts when it took over the operating license for the decommissioning of Pilgrim."

Stop issuing fracking permits | - Marietta Times - I am a life-long resident of Appalachia. I grew up in West Virginia and for twenty years I have lived in beautiful Marietta, enjoying the local parks and walking them. That love of nature has been threatened by the fracking industry. For the past few years, every time I travel Third Street, I have encountered more and more tanker trucks. That got me to start asking questions and doing research, which became very troubling. As I am sure most of you know, all those trucks are carrying waste from the fracking industry, called brine. Fracking is “a process that injects liquid at high pressure into subterranean rocks, boreholes, etc. so as to force open existing fissures and extract oil or gas,” according to the Oxford Dictionary. What is most disturbing about this waste is that most is not only radioactive but also contains lead, arsenic, formaldehyde and mercury. Even though that’s only one percent of this in fracking waste, that’s one percent of, for example, the 1.9 million barrels of brine waste injected into waste wells in Washington County in 2011. Even more troubling, in 2019, Washington County had the second highest level of injection well activity in the state.One dangerous effect is the threat brine poses to our drinking water. According to Consumer Reports (December 3, 2020), brine “can contaminate [water] supplies when waste spills from trucks or pipelines moving it or when waste leaks from unlined disposal pits.” In fact, there was a spill of brine waste just outside of Marietta in January of 2021 at a pipeline owned by Deep Rock Disposal.Making matters even worse, the Ohio Legislature passed two bills which now allow for 333 times the radioactive brine waste recommended by health experts. Given this threat not only to our environment but to our health, it is imperative that we as residents of this county strongly urge the Ohio Department of Natural Resources at least to stop issuing permits in Washington County until injection wells are better monitored and until our drinking water can be guaranteed to be safe from these contaminants.—Margaret Meyer, Marietta

 Exxon/XTO Energy Looking to Sell 27K Utica Shale Acres + 61 Wells -In late 2020, ExxonMobil released the outlines of its development plan for the next five years (see ExxonMobil Announces Plan to Divest “Certain” N.A. Dry Gas Assets). Exxon said it had decided to prioritize investing in “high-value assets” over the next five years–namely in Guyana and in the Permian Basin here in the U.S. The company hinted that asset sales for U.S. onshore shale outside the Permian were on the table. The hinting is done. Reuters is reporting that yesterday Exxon launched the sale of shale gas properties stretching across 27,000 acres in the Utica Shale of Ohio.Exxon subsidiary XTO Energy drills in both the Marcellus (in PA) and in the Utica (in OH). According to a marketing document viewed by Reuters reporters, Exxon/XTO is looking to sell 61 operated wells producing 81 million cubic feet per day (MMcf/d), along with another 274 non-operated wells in which the company owns a share. Exxon is hoping the assets fetch on the order of $200 million.Here’s the latest news coming out of the Utica: Exxon Mobil on Tuesday launched the sale of shale gas properties stretching across 27,000 acres in the Appalachian basin of Ohio, the company confirmed, part of an ongoing divestiture of U.S. assets.The top U.S. oil producer is marketing 61 wells that last year produced around 81 million cubic feet per day equivalent (mmcfd) of natural gas, according to a marketing document viewed by Reuters. The sale includes another 274 wells operated by other companies.A sale could value the assets at around $200 million based on current natural gas prices and existing production from the wells, a person familiar with the matter said.“ExxonMobil is providing information to third parties that may have an interest in the assets, but no agreement has been reached and no buyer has been identified,” said spokeswoman Sarah Nordin. Operations are continuing, she added.The company in 2020 took about a $20 billion writedown on properties, primarily purchased with subsidiary XTO Energy a decade earlier. It removed gas assets in Appalachia, the Rocky Mountains, Oklahoma, Texas and elsewhere from its development plan after the writedown.The Ohio properties produced around 250 mmcfd of gas in 2017 and are among assets that Exxon put on the market as it focuses development in Guyana, offshore Brazil and Texas’s Permian Basin shale field.U.S. natural gas futures settled at $4.219 on Tuesday, up more than 80% since the end of 2020.The company three years ago set a goal of raising $15 billion from asset sales, and last year accelerated its marketing efforts as energy prices recovered from the pandemic.*

Utica Shale Academy to create outdoor welding lab — Unhappy with the slow process of installing the welding lab in the basement of the Hudson Building housing the Utica Shale Academy in Salineville, the board went forward with plans to create an outdoor welding lab space. Both Superintendent Bill Watson and board member Mark Chronister emphasized the importance of students learning that if they are going to work in the welding industry, many times they may need to weld in less-than-ideal conditions. Chronister said people hiring welders note that often those jobs are not inside, especially in this area. People need to be able to weld in a muddy ditch in the cold and heat. Watson said after being assured the welding lab in the basement would be ready in August, he was later told the end of January. However parts of the project are still waiting for approval for the installation, which means students who were able to weld last year are not getting any practice during their senior year. The outdoor welding lab does not have all the same requirements needed for the basement lab. In the future, the school would like to have both labs up and running. During Tuesday’s meeting, the Utica Shale Academy board approved creating the new lab, which will be a concrete structure, a lean-to style building, according to Chronister, keeping the rain and snow off the students and equipment. It will include a 100-megawatt natural gas generator. The outdoor lab will be located at 65 East Main Street, a property the school purchased across from the current Shale Academy student parking area, and will hopefully be available for students to begin practicing welding skills as soon as mid-February. Eventually, that three-acre property also is slated to house the Kubota Tech program. Scott Shepherd with A&I Design Studio architecture will be working on the construction phases and coordinating with Columbia Gas.

24 New Shale Well Permits Issued for PA-OH-WV Jan 3-9 - Last week 24 permits were issued to drill new shale wells in the Marcellus/Utica. Pennsylvania had the lion’s share with 19 new permits–most of those (10) were issued for two Chesapeake Energy well pads in Bradford County in the northeastern part of the state. Ohio had just two new permits, both on the same Southwestern Energy well pad in Monroe County. West Virginia had three new permits, one in Pleasants County and two in Marshall County.

• Pennsylvania New Shale Permits Issued Jan 3-9
• Ohio New Shale Permits Issued Jan 3-9
• West Virginia New Shale Permits Issued Jan 3-9

With 1 Bcf/d Now Certified, Seneca Ready to Differentiate All Appalachian Natural Gas Output - Seneca Resources Co. LLC on Tuesday said 100% of its Appalachian natural gas production, which is 1 Bcf/d gross, has been deemed certified under performance targets set by Equitable Origin (EO). The exploration and production (E&P) arm of National Fuel Gas Co. (NFG) said the achievement was completed under the EO100 Standard for Responsible Energy Development. Many natural gas-directed North American E&Ps are differentiating their gas supplies through EO100 and other certification organizations. The EO100 process includes a series of environmental, social and governance targets, verified by independent third parties.The EO designation “validates our long-standing culture and history of environmental responsibility and community engagement,” Seneca President Justin Loweth said. “We will continue to embrace new technologies and implement best practices in order to remain on the leading edge of the industry’s sustainability initiatives.Seneca explores for natural gas and oil in the Marcellus and Utica shales, as well as in California. Seneca produced 83.1 Bcfe during the fiscal third quarter, up 48% year/year. The producer attributed the sharp increase to its acquisition in 2020 of 450,000 net acres in Pennsylvania from Royal Dutch Shell plc. In preliminary guidance for fiscal 2022, Seneca said it expects to produce 335-365 Bcfe, which would be 25 Bcfe higher than the midpoint of guidance for 2021. A team of auditors from engineering firm Geosyntec conducted an independent audit of Seneca’s Pennsylvania operations, EO noted. The auditors assessed the E&P’s alignment to the five EO100 principles: corporate governance and ethics; social impacts, human rights and community engagement; Indigenous Peoples’ rights; occupational health, safety and fair labor standards; and environmental impacts, biodiversity and climate change. Auditors examined Seneca’s documented programs, assessed field operations and conducted 30 interviews with internal and external stakeholders. NFG, whose footprint extends across the country, last September ​​set a goal to lower its carbon footprint in 2030 by double-digits across the E&P, midstream and utility segments. For the consolidated company, NFG plans to reduce total greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 25% by 2030. The gathering arm and the utility unit have each set a methane intensity reduction target of 30% by 2030. In the pipeline and storage segment, the plan is to cut in half the intensity target reduction.

NYMEX Henry Hub gas futures cross $4 mark as US market balance tightens - S&P Global Platts - Prompt-month futures prices at the US Henry Hub edged back above $4 on Jan. 10 as more winter-like weather lifts heating demand to seasonal highs and a new year’s slump in domestic production persists. At mid-session, the prompt-month gas contract was up about 15-20 cents from its prior settlement to trade around $4.10/MMBtu. In the cash market, prices were up even more sharply to start the week, rising about 30 cents to $4.14/MMBtu, data from CME Group and the Intercontinental Exchange showed. Over the past month, Henry Hub futures and cash prices have mostly traded below $4 as weak seasonal demand has met with rising production and storage levels, easing earlier concerns over winter supply. Since the start of January, though, a tighter US supply-demand balance has reignited the market bulls.

Appalachia NGL Feedstock Looking to Support Region's Petrochemical Growth In 2022 - A long awaited petrochemical project is set to begin operations in the Appalachian Basin in 2022, and a second major investment in the region could get the green light this year. “A positive development before us in 2022 will be the anticipated start-up of Shell’s cracker facility in Beaver County,” President Daniel J. Weaver of the Pennsylvania Independent Oil and Gas Association (PIOGA), told NGI. Weaver was referring to the Pennsylvania Petrochemical Complex, a world-scale ethane cracker Shell plc is developing along the Ohio River northwest of Pittsburgh. The facility would produce polyethylene and ethylene from Appalachia-sourced ethane. Downriver in Belmont County, OH, Thailand-based PTT Global Chemical plc has proposed building another world-scale Appalachia ethane cracker. In 2020 Range Resources Corp. agreed to be the anchor ethane supplier for the facility, but PTT has yet to make a final investment decision. Spokesperson Mike Chadsey of the Ohio Oil and Gas Association (OOGA), told NGI his organization is eager to see whether this will be the year PTT reveals its intentions for the NGL complex. In addition, Chadsey, Weaver, and their peers with other trade associations in Pennsylvania and West Virginia shared with NGI some of their expectations for Appalachia oil and gas in 2022. Read on for their insights on major trends to watch in the region this year. In addition to witnessing the startup of Shell’s ethane cracker this year, Pennsylvania could see an infusion of federal money for plugging, remediating, and restoring orphaned oil and gas well sites, noted PIOGA’s Weaver. He said the “potential allocation of well-plugging funds from the federal government…could provide much-needed income to conventional producers ready to complete that work.” In November President Biden signed into law the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act (IIJA) which, according to the U.S. Department of the Interior, includes $4.7 billion for orphaned oil and gas well site plugging, remediation, and restoration activities. “Pennsylvania is expected to receive $395 million” from the $4.7 billion earmarked in IIJA for orphaned wells, DEP Press Secretary Jamar Thrasher said. Terry Fletcher, acting communications director with the West Virginia Department of Environmental Protection (WVDEP), told NGI it is unclear how much his department’s orphan well program will receive from IIJA.The Ohio Department of Natural Resources (ODNR) told NGI that IJIA “aligns with the priorities of the DeWine/Husted administration to support economic development and job creation by focusing on our natural resources including the plugging of idle and orphan wells.”However, ODNR said its IIJA allocation remains to be seen.OOGA’s Chadsey said his organization “is cautiously optimistic” about 2022.m An issue that OOGA will continue to closely monitor in the new year will be ongoing and future oil and gas development within the Wayne National Forest (WNF) in southeastern Ohio, Chadsey noted. Oil and gas leasing in WNF has been the subject of a longstanding legal battle.Chadsey pointed out the WNF issue begs a number of questions for Ohio’s oil and gas community, including whether there will be a lease sale for Wayne, would anyone bid on Wayne acreage, and would any development occur there. The questions OOGA members seek to have answered in 2022 go beyond those tied to WNF leasing. Chadsey said the organization is eager to learn whether Congress “puts in place some type of methane tax/fee impacting producers’ ability to lease, drill, produce, and ship gas.”

Natural gas to gasoline: A $6 billion proposal in PA - A Texas-based energy company wants to build a $6 billion facility that would produce gasoline from natural gas near the Susquehanna River in northeastern Pennsylvania.The plant would be built on part of 3,000-acre abandoned coal mine site, which the company says it will rehabilitate.Nacero, founded in 2015, says its facility in Luzerne County, along with two other plants in Arizona and Texas, will produce the country’s first zero- and low-carbon footprint gasoline for everyday cars and trucks at competitive prices. Construction at the Pennsylvania site would begin by 2024.The company would produce gasoline from two sources of natural gas. One would be natural gas piped in from in the hydraulically fractured or “fracked” natural gas in Marcellus shale. Compared to petroleum gasoline, the company claims, the gas-derived fuel would have half the carbon lifecycle footprint — counting extraction, production, distribution and consumption. A second source would be methane gas released and captured from municipal landfills, decomposing animal waste and sewage plants. That gasoline would have a zero-carbon lifecycle footprint, according to the company.Both fuels would be free of sulfur, one of the main pollutants from refined-oil gasoline that is a precursor to smog and has health impacts.Under a law passed in 2020 to entice new petrochemical companies to locate in Pennsylvania’s fracking regions, Nacero would get about $6.7 million in tax breaks from the state, per year, for 25 years.Not everyone is on board, however. A coalition of 16 local and statewide environmental groups on Dec. 21 came out in opposition to the project. They said there is no evidence to back up Nacero’s claims of such large carbon-footprint reductions.“The environmental community is concerned that the proposed [project] will be the first in a new wave of proposals for fracked gas related projects marketed as good for the climate,” a spokesperson for the coalition said, “but that instead will pollute local communities while emitting significant amounts of greenhouse gases and expanding the fracked gas industry.”

Legal fights continue over the Mountain Valley Pipeline -- While cutting a 303-mile-long scar along the mountains of Virginia and West Virginia, the construction of a natural gas pipeline has also left a long trail of litigation with no end in sight.Four years ago, after the first trees were felled and a 125-foot-wide strip of land was cleared for the Mountain Valley Pipeline, lawsuits by environmental groups soon followed. A federal appeals court has struck down enough government permits to delay — but not to kill, at least so far — the $6.2 billion project.Three new legal challenges were filed in the past month. Since 2017, there have been at least 56 civil actions brought in state and federal courts in Virginia.“Mountain Valley Pipeline has faced an unusually high volume of litigation because it is an unusually unwise and unneeded project,” said Gillian Giannetti, a senior attorney with the Natural Resources Defense Council.Judges have pondered a host of issues: The actions of regulatory bodies, environmental damage caused by digging trenches to bury the 42-inch diameter pipe, the rights of the landowners who refused to sell their property to Mountain Valley, the fate of endangered species and claims that the project is not needed and will worsen climate change.

Newark NJ power plant: Groups urge Phil Murphy to block vote --Community groups and environmentalists are asking Gov. Phil Murphy to stop a plan to build a $180 million gas-fired power plant along the Passaic River in Newark that is scheduled for a vote this week. The proposal comes from the Passaic Valley Sewerage Commission, whose members are set to vote Thursday on a contract to build the backup power plant, which would keep its massive sewage treatment facility running during a prolonged power outage like the one it suffered during Superstorm Sandy in 2012. Opponents say the power plant would pump greenhouse gases into the atmosphere and exacerbate the strength and frequency of storms like Sandy, which caused the treatment plant to spew 840 million gallons of raw sewage into Newark Bay and surrounding waterways when power was disrupted.Those who live in the nearby Ironbound community worry that the plant would worsen the poor local air quality. They say it goes against both Murphy's clean power initiatives and his calls for environmental justice — the goal of building fewer polluting facilities in communities of color. The mammoth sewage treatment plant is the single largest user of electricity in New Jersey. It handles sewage from 1.5 million residents in 48 towns across Bergen, Passaic, Hudson and Essex counties. The plant was without any power for three days and without full power for three weeks after Sandy's 12-foot storm surge inundated the plant. It caused sewage to spill into the region's bays, rivers and harbors."A critical component for resiliency planning is the need to have an absolutely secure, reliable, on-site standby power generation facility," said Doug Scancarella, a spokesman for Passaic Valley. The proposed power plant would use three 28-megawatt turbines, although only 34 megawatts would be needed to run the plant, according to a recent presentation by the commission's contractors. It would be used in emergency situations and when there is peak demand in the region for electricity. In non-emergency situations, the turbines are each estimated to operate for 1,100 hours a year,The plant could emit as much as 8 tons of carbon monoxide, 3.5 tons of nitrogen oxide, 4.6 tons of particulate matter and other substances that would negatively affect air quality in nearby communities such as the Ironbound. Newark and the surrounding area already have high levels of childhood asthma.The plant could also emit as much as 39,000 tons of carbon dioxide each year, according to an air permit application by the commission. The commission's contractors say that would be less than what is currently produced using electricity from the grid.

U.S. natgas hits five-week high on cold Northeast and global prices U.S. natural gas futures gained more than 4% to a five-week high on Monday on expectations that the Northeast region will experience its coldest day of the winter on Tuesday and as soaring global gas prices bolster demand for U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG). In addition, traders noted daily U.S. gas demand in the Lower 48 states jumped to a record high on Friday as cold weather blanketed most of the country. Earlier in the day, European gas futures jumped more than 8% on Monday. U.S. gas futures followed European gas prices about two thirds of the time during the fourth quarter of 2021 as utilities scrambled for LNG cargoes to replenish low stockpiles in Europe and meet surging demand in Asia. Front-month gas futures rose 16.3 cents, or 4.2%, to settle at $4.079 per million British thermal units (mmBtu), their highest close since Dec. 3.29dk2902l Despite the cold expected on Tuesday in New York and New England, next-day power and gas prices for Monday eased in both regions. Power and gas prices in both regions jumped on Friday to their highest since January 2018. Some traders said New England power prices rose to about $180 per megawatt hour for Tuesday, which would again be their highest since January 2018. Lingering cold since New Year’s Day has continued to cause well freeze-offs in several regions, including the Permian in Texas and New Mexico, the Bakken in North Dakota and Appalachia in Pennsylvania, West Virginia and Ohio. Data provider Refinitiv said those weather-related issues, which are normal during winter months, have cut average output in the U.S. Lower 48 states to 94.6 bcfd so far in January, down from a record 97.6 bcfd in December. Refinitiv projected average U.S. gas demand, including exports, would slide from 133.7 bcfd this week to 130.2 bcfd next week. Those forecasts were lower than Refinitiv’s outlook on Friday. On a daily basis, Refinitiv said total U.S. gas demand plus exports hit a preliminary record high of 151.1 bcfd on Jan. 7. That would top the current record of 150.6 bcfd on Jan. 30, 2019, and the 147.2 bcfd hit on Feb. 12, 2021, just before Winter Storm Uri left millions without power and heat for days after freezing gas wells and pipes in Texas and other U.S. Central states. The amount of gas flowing to U.S. LNG export plants has averaged 12.0 bcfd this month, down from a record 12.2 bcfd in December. With gas prices around $29 per mmBtu in Europe and $34 in Asia, compared with about $4 in the United States, traders said buyers around the world would keep purchasing all the LNG the United States can produce.

U.S. natgas jumps to near 6-week high as Northeast freezes — U.S. natural gas futures jumped over 4% to a near six-week high on Tuesday on lingering cold-weather production declines and forecasts for higher heating demand next week than previously expected. The increase also came on the coldest day of the winter so far in the U.S. Northeast region. Front-month gas futures rose 17.0 cents, or 4.2%, to settle at $4.249 per million British thermal units (mmBtu), their highest close since Dec. 1. In the spot market, power prices in New England for Tuesday jumped to their highest since January 2018 as homes and businesses cranked up their heaters to escape the region's coldest day so far this winter. Data provider Refinitiv said output in the U.S. Lower 48 states has averaged 94.6 bcfd so far in January, down from a record 97.6 bcfd in December. Refinitiv projected average U.S. gas demand, including exports, would hold around 132.7 bcfd this week and next. The forecast for this week was lower than Refinitiv projected on Monday, while the outlook for next week was higher. On a daily basis, Refinitiv said total U.S. gas demand plus exports hit a preliminary record of 150.9 bcfd on Jan. 7. That would top the current record of 150.6 bcfd on Jan. 30, 2019, and the 147.2 bcfd hit on Feb. 12, 2021, just before Winter Storm Uri left millions without power and heat for days after freezing gas wells and pipes in Texas and other U.S. Central states. The amount of gas flowing to U.S. LNG export plants has averaged 12.1 bcfd this month, just below the 12.2-bcfd record in December. So global markets will have to wait until later this year for some of the 18 liquefaction trains under construction at Venture Global LNG's Calcasieu Pass in Louisiana to start producing LNG. The plant has been pulling in small amounts of feed gas since around September as it prepares to begin operating.

Natural gas surges 14% as cold snap ahead is expected to boost demand - U.S. natural gas futures surged more than 14% on Wednesday as temperatures drop and forecasts call for more winter weather ahead. The contract for February delivery advanced 14.3% to settle at $4.857 per million British thermal units, hitting the highest level since November. "The heating demand outlook for [the] eastern-third of the U.S. has strengthened materially for this weekend and for the last week of January," Saturday could see record natural gas demand due to a cold blast forecast for Friday. "The weather has gone from being a non-factor or bearish factor all season to being meaningful, again, for prices and demand," he added. After surging for much of 2021, natural gas prices dropped 36% during the fourth quarter following warm temperatures and as the omicron variant sent jitters through the market. Still, the contract posted a 47% gain for 2021, and is already up nearly 30% for 2022. "Due to the cold weather, and realistic worries about tighter supply, prices are moving higher across the North American complex," "Overall there just isn't the extremely slack supply of natural gas in the market that has been the prevailing trend over the past 10 years," he added. Jeff Kilburg, chief investment officer at Sanctuary Wealth, added that some of the price surge can be attributed to traders covering positions. "The perfect storm is hitting Nat gas futures as freezing temperatures are hitting the market as supply shortages still exist, and this is all being amplified as many short speculator traders were caught offsides and are being forced to cover their positions, exaggerating the move higher today," he said.

"No One Wants To Be Short" - US NatGas Futures Erupt As Cold Sweeps East Coast - U.S. natural gas futures jumped to levels not seen since early December amid a cold blast across the eastern U.S. and new threats of a winter storm over the weekend. Futures for February delivery soared 9.5% to $4.66 per million British thermal units, the highest price since Dec. In a weather forecast Tuesday, we noted that some of the coldest air in years is pouring into parts of the U.S. Major metro areas across the East Coast are seeing frigid temperatures, which are boosting heating demand. Average temperatures in NYC are expected to be well below the 30-year average through the end of the month. Heating degree days for NYC will be above normal through the second half of the month -- this means heating demand will soar. Dennis Kissler, a senior vice president at Bok Financial Securities Inc., told Bloomberg that the move in gas prices is"about short-covering and how much colder weather can get into January through February.""Add in the tight supplies in Europe that may bleed over to Asia, and no one wants to be short," Kissler said. "Front-month futures reached the highest seasonal price since 2010. Traders holding bearish positions are buying to close out their bets as the price crossed both the 200- and 50- day moving averages, which are bullish technical signals. The risk premium is being added back to winter gas prices, with the front-month contract advancing at almost twice the pace of April futures," Bloomberg said.

Impending Cold Blast in Texas Spelling Natural Gas Volatility – With freezing weather on the horizon throughout much of the United States, including Texas, February natural gas prices at hubs key to Mexico shot up this week.The Henry Hub February contract closed at $4.857/MMBtu on Wednesday, up 60.8 cents on the day and more than $1 from one week ago. Agua Dulcewas up by 81.3 cents at $5.447. Houston Ship Channel prices for February settled at $5.397, up 81.2 cents. Waha shot up 9.15 cents to close at $5.500.“This latest cold blast will be the first test of Texas production and gas flows since Winter Storm Uri in February 2021,” said NGI’s Patrick Rau, director of Strategy & Research. “The good news is the state has had nearly a year to prepare for such events. The bad news is any price spike in Texas will flow through to Mexico, because the overwhelming majority of gas imports into Mexico from the U.S. are tied to U.S gas prices. “This just underscores the need for liquid price indexes in Mexico that are based on Mexican supply and demand characteristics.”The cold blast is expected to hit during the final 10 days of this month, and prices are also being pressured by supply constraints. U.S. natural gas production had ticked up to start the year to 94 Bcf but output is still about 2 Bcf below late 2021 highs following freeze-offs early this year that curtailed producer activity. Further squeezing supply, NGI estimates on Wednesday showed U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) demand reached a record 13 Bcf for only the second time as Europe continued to suffer the effects of a cold winter and low gas stocks.“Gas consumption in the north of Mexico is going up because of the cold,” a trader told NGI’s Mexico GPI, and “there is a new round of nervousness about the weather in Texas.” To date, however, “it’s business as usual,” and the gas system in Mexico is “working fine.”Mexican demand is also being augmented by increasing domestic production. Preliminary data from Wood Mackenzie indicated that Mexican dry gas output is coming in strong so far this month. “In January-to-date terms, average production is hovering over 2.7 Bcf/d, a near-15% bump from December last year,” Wood Mackenzie analyst Ricardo Falcón told NGI’s Mexico GPI.More than 85% of the total supply gains correspond to Petróleos Mexicanos (Pemex) gas processing complexes in Tabasco and Veracruz. Pemex has also unveiled plans to ramp up production at the Ixachi field and to restart operations at the gas-rich deepwater Lakach asset amid a more competitive pricing environment.So far in January, estimated imports from the United States into Mexico are eclipsing the 5.5 Bcf/d mark. That is “slightly more than 1% above the December average,” Falcón said. “In Wood Mackenzie’s analysis, there is still upside potential this month as Mexico’s main gas-intensive sectors get fully back on track.”

For First Time in Five Sessions, Natural Gas Futures Falter as Traders Take Profits -The price of natural gas for delivery next month nosedived on Thursday as traders took profits after a massive four-day rally. The February Nymex gas futures contract settled at $4.270/MMBtu, down 58.7 cents day/day. March dropped 32.2 cents to $4.005. NGI’s Spot Gas National Avg., in contrast, continued to climb, gaining 89.0 cents to $6.450 on Thursday. The spike built on a 52.5-cent jump a day earlier.The prompt month on Wednesday had soared 60.8 cents, capping a multi-session bull parade that took futures to a 2022 high near $5. Modest production levels, robust demand for U.S. exports of liquefied natural gas (LNG) and expectations for an extended bout of frigid weather later this month combined to fuel the rally.Production, however, climbed about 2 Bcf over the past couple days and reached 95 Bcf on Thursday, according to a Bloomberg estimate. That put output back near 2021 highs after freeze-offs early this year curtailed producer activity.The rising output and profit-taking Thursday ended the rally, Marex North America LLC’s Steve Blair, a senior account executive, told NGI.“We also had some speculative buying ahead of Thursday’s storage report that probably made Wednesday’s surge a bit overdone,” Blair said.The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) on Thursday reported a pull of 179 Bcf natural gas from underground inventories for the week ended Jan. 7, the largest so far this winter. The result was in line with market expectations. However, Blair said that, following harsh winter weather last week, some in the market had bet on an even larger withdrawal and bid up futures in advance of the report. When the EIA print essentially matched the midpoint of analysts’ estimates in major polls, speculators likely sold off some of their positions, adding to profit-taking already underway.

U.S. natgas futures steady as market rests after volatile week (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures were little changed on Friday ahead of the long Martin Luther King Jr Day holiday weekend as the market took a break after extreme, weather forecast-related volatility earlier in the week. Earlier in the week, prices soared 14% on Wednesday on colder forecasts - their biggest one-day percentage increase since September 2020 - and dropped 12% on Thursday after those forecast turned less cold - their biggest one-day percentage decline since January 2019. With extreme cold possible at any time and strong memories of price spikes during last February's freeze in Texas, traders said they expect the market to remain volatile in coming weeks with every change in the weather forecast. Friday's U.S. price decline came despite a 10% jump in European gas futures earlier in the day. Since the start of the year, the U.S. market has focused more on changes in U.S. weather and domestic supply and demand rather than what is happening around the world. So far in 2022, U.S. gas followed European prices only about a quarter of the time versus about two-thirds during the fourth quarter of 2021. But, traders said demand for U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) will remain strong so long as global gas prices keep trading well above U.S. futures. Global prices were currently trading about seven times above U.S. prices as utilities around the world scramble for LNG cargoes to replenish low stockpiles in Europe and meet surging demand in Asia. Front-month gas futures NGc1 for February delivery fell 0.8 cents, or 0.2%, to settle at $4.262 per million British thermal units (mmBtu). That put the front month up about 9% for the week after gaining 5% last week. During last year's February freeze, gas futures climbed as much as 7% on Feb. 16, but did not soar nearly as much as the spot market. Next-day gas jumped to record highs in several parts of the country - jumping over 1,100% on Feb. 12 at the Waha hub in West Texas - as Winter Storm Uri left millions without power and heat for days after freezing gas wells and pipes in Texas and other U.S. central states. In the spot market this week, cold weather and high heating demand in the U.S. Northeast kept next-day power and gas prices in New York and New England at or near their highest since January 2018. Traders noted more freezing weather was on the way with Saturday expected to be the coldest day of the winter so far and below normal temperatures expected during the entire week of Jan. 23. Data provider Refinitiv projected average U.S. gas demand, including exports, would slide from 133.4 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) this week to 131.8 bcfd next week as the weather turns less cold before soaring to 142.2 bcfd in two weeks.

Fight heats up to protect Everglades, Big Cypress - - The National Park Service faces growing pressure to block any additional oil exploration in Florida’s Big Cypress National Preserve, posing one of the first major tests for Chuck Sams, the agency’s new director.In a letter to Sams and Interior Secretary Deb Haaland, Florida Agriculture Commissioner Nikki Fried urged the park service to use its “broad legal authority” to stop proposed drilling by Texas-based Burnett Oil Co.“The fate of this vast wilderness, part of the most unique and delicate ecosystem on Earth, hangs in the balance with these decisions before you,” Fried said in her letter last week. Fried, a Democrat, is running for governor in an effort to unseat incumbent Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis.Many green groups and other Florida politicians from both political parties have issued similar pleas, arguing that the 729,000-acre preserve provides vital habitat for the endangered Florida panther and provides fresh water for nearby Everglades National Park.“There is simply too much at stake for this ecosystem for the National Park Service to get this wrong,” Alison Kelly, a senior attorney with the Natural Resources Defense Council, said in a blog post last month.Sams, who was sworn in just last month, has yet to weigh in on the issue. The National Park Service and Interior Department both declined to comment this morning.The latest pressure comes after 13 members of the Florida congressional delegation — 10 Democrats and three Republicans — wrote a letter to Haaland and President Biden in October, asking the administration to “deny any operations permits needed to advance any new oil drilling sites within the Everglades.”“There is fierce local opposition from the Seminole Tribe and other local communities,” the lawmakers wrote. “The recent California oil spill is the latest example of the irreparable harm oil drilling can have to our communities and environment. For these reasons, we believe the proposed oil extraction activity should not be authorized.” The push to protect the Everglades has won strong bipartisan backing and promises to be an environmental issue in this year’s Florida governor’s race.

Pipeline spills 300,000 gallons of diesel near New Orleans - A severely corroded pipeline ruptured and spilled more than 300,000 gallons (1 million liters) of diesel fuel just outside New Orleans, according to federal records. The spill from the 16-inch (40-centimeter) diameter line operated by Collins Pipeline Co. was discovered December 27 near a levee in St. Bernard Parish, just east of New Orleans, according to documents from the Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety Administration. In October 2020, an inspection of the 42-year-old pipeline had revealed external corrosion along a 22-foot (7-meter) section of pipe in the same area as the spill. But repairs were delayed and the line continued operating after a subsequent inspection indicated the corrosion was not bad enough to require work immediately under federal regulations, according to the pipeline agency. The spilled fuel contaminated soil and created a large pool of diesel in an environmentally sensitive area just a few hundred feet from the Mississippi River, the documents show. An estimated 50,000 gallons (227,000 liters) of diesel were later recovered and cleanup of the remaining fuel is ongoing, the documents show. Collins Pipeline is a subsidiary of Parsippany, New Jersey-based PBF Energy Inc. Company representatives did not immediately respond to email and telephone messages seeking comment.

Pipeline spills 300,000 gallons of diesel near New Orleans (AP) — A severely corroded pipeline ruptured and spilled more than 300,000 gallons (1.1 million liters) of diesel fuel just outside New Orleans after the operator delayed needed repairs, according to federal records. Most of the fuel drained into two artificial ponds called “borrow pits" and thousands of fish, birds and other animals were killed, state and local officials said Wednesday. The spill also contaminated soil, according to state and federal officials. The pipeline's owner said 315,000 gallons (1.2 million gallons) of fuel with some water mixed in had been skimmed and recovered, primarily from the ponds. Cleanup work is ongoing. The spill from the 16-inch-diameter (40-centimeter-diameter) line operated by Collins Pipeline Co. was discovered Dec. 27 near a levee in St. Bernard Parish, just east of New Orleans, according to documents from the Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety Administration. The spill had not been previously publicly reported. An inspection of the 42-year-old Meraux Pipeline more than a year earlier, in October 2020, revealed external corrosion along a 22-foot (7-meter) section of pipe at the same site as the spill, federal records show. The pipe had apparently lost 75% of its metal where the corrosion was worst, which would have required immediate repair, according to the records. But work was delayed and the line continued operating after a second inspection concluded the corrosion was not bad enough to require immediate repair under federal rules, the records show. The spilled fuel also contaminated soil in an environmentally sensitive area near the Mississippi River Gulf Outlet, a closed canal, according to state and federal officials. A small amount of diesel remains in the two borrow pits, said Louisiana Department of Environmental Quality spokesman Gregory Langley. The spill killed 2,300 fish and more than 100 other animals, including 39 snakes, 32 birds, a few eels and a blue crab, according to statistics provided by Robert “Trey” Iles, a spokesman for the Louisiana Department of Wildlife and Fisheries. Nearly 130 animals — 72 alligators, 23 birds, 20 snakes and 12 turtles — were captured for rehabilitation, he said. Diesel is a highly toxic petroleum product that can kill fish and plants that come into direct contact with it, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Fuel from small spills can evaporate or disperse naturally in just a couple of days but larger spills can take months to degrade. A pipeline safety advocate said it was “maddening” that the corrosion was known about for more than a year prior to the spill yet fuel kept flowing through the 125-mile-long (200-kilometer-long) line from Chalmette to a storage terminal in Collins, Mississippi. “It’s especially maddening to learn that Collins Pipeline’s initial analysis deemed the pipe in such poor condition that it warranted an immediate repair,” said Bill Caram with the Pipeline Safety Trust. The Bellingham, Washington-based organization advocates for more stringent oversight of the nation’s sprawling network of pipelines transporting oil, natural gas and other hazardous fuels.

1st of 43 lawsuits accusing Big Oil of damaging Louisiana coast back to state court - again - A federal judge in New Orleans has again ruled that a wetlands damage lawsuit against six oil and gas companies with potentially vast consequences should be heard in state 25th Judicial District Court in Plaquemines Parish, instead of in federal court. In a 29-page ruling issued Tuesday, U.S. District Judge Martin L.C. Feldman of New Orleans said the oil companies failed to prove that the companies' development of dozens of wells in the Potash oil field being developed by the Humble Oil Co. during World War II was actually overseen by federal agents, which would have represented "federal officer jurisdiction" that would have required the cases to be heard in federal court. The ruling followed a hearing in federal court in New Orleans, where Plaquemines Parish's attorneys and attorneys representing the oil companies presented their arguments. "After nine years of Big Oil forum-shopping, the parishes now have the opportunity to demonstrate in state court how real and provable this damage is," said John Carmouche, lead attorney for the parishes. "The parishes will continue to fight and will not back down until our coast is restored." “Once again, the governor is pleased with the judge’s ruling," said Shauna Sanford, communications director for Gov. John Bel Edwards. "As he has said previously, these Louisiana claims should be heard in a Louisiana court.” “Defendants appreciated the opportunity to present their case to the court yesterday. We were, of course, disappointed with the outcome, and we are planning a prompt appeal," said Melissa Landry, a spokesperson for the legal teams representing BP America, Chevron, ConocoPhillips, Exxon Mobil Corporation and Shell, in this and other similar wetlands damage cases. In a joint statement on the ruling, the Louisiana Mid-Continent OIl and Gas Association and Louisiana Oil & Gas Association said that even if the cases remain in state court, proving damages is likely to be difficult. “In whichever court these cases proceed, they should face significant challenges," the statement said. "With these baseless claims, plaintiffs’ lawyers are seeking to reach back in time and impose liability on an entire industry for conducting activities that were conducted lawfully and created countless jobs and other economic benefits for communities across the state and nation." It's the third time that this lawsuit has been ordered returned to the Plaquemines court by a federal judge. But, as the attorney for the oil companies confirmed, it's likely this decision also will be appealed to the U.S. 5th Circuit Court of Appeals, and possibly to the U.S. Supreme Court.

Home to 4,605 orphan oil and gas wells, Louisiana seeks federal money to plug them -Louisiana is home to 4,605 orphan oil and gas wells, some of them threatening the environment, and now plans to ask the federal government for a Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act grant to help pay the estimated $401.7 million cost of plugging them. It's one of 26 states that told federal ofwcials by the Dec. 30 deadline they want part of the $4.7 billion reserved in the law for plugging abandoned wells and restoring associated property. The effort is aimed at both cleaning up environmental issues at the well sites and, by plugging the wells, stopping the release of methane, the carbon-rich main ingredient of natural gas that's been linked to global warming. In requesting the states to apply for the money, President Joe Biden's administration said the plan was aimed at both its environmental benewts, especially for low- and moderate-income residents living nearby abandoned wells, and its expected economic benefits in an era of declining oil and gas service jobs. "These legacy pollution cleanup efforts will advance the department’s goals of environmental justice by helping historically marginalized communities address the devastating and long-lasting effects of legacy pollution," an Interior Department memorandum said. In its Dec. 23 declaration of interest in a grant, the Louisiana Department of Natural Resources estimated the state lost 12,256 oil and gas industry jobs between March 1, 2020, and Nov. 15, 2021, which represents a 23.4% reduction in that sector in Louisiana. Based on the state's estimates, it would be asking an average of $87,000 for each well it has listed as orphaned. However, the money set aside in the infrastructure bill would only be enough to pay an average $36,000 per well, if all 130,000 abandoned wells identiwed by Interior were funded. If all of Louisiana's orphan wells were targeted for plugging, the effort could employ about 1,000 people fulltime for a year, and could reduce methane emissions by 558 metric tons per year, according to a 2020 report by Columbia University and Resources for the Future, a Washington D.C. environmental policy think tank. The methane reduction is the equivalent of the annual greenhouse gas emissions of more than 3,000 cars. The Interior Department said Wednesday that the 26 states seeking grant money reported a total of more than 130,000 orphan wells. That's slightly fewer than the 131,227 documented orphan wells reported in the latest survey of the Interstate Oil and Gas Compact Commission of 32 states through 2020. The commission said its total represented a 23% increase since 2018.

Oilfield employment climbed in December despite cooling U.S. job market- Employment in the U.S. oilfield services and equipment sector rose by an estimated 7,450 jobs in December, despite the slow hiring in overall U.S. jobs, according to preliminary data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) and analysis by the Energy Workforce & Technology Council (Council). Gains were made in oil and gas extraction, as well as machinery manufacturing. The 1.1% growth in December comes as overall U.S. job growth underperformed against analyst's expectations. After hitting a peak of more than 109,000 pandemic-related job losses in February 2021, the oilfield services and equipment sector has regained an estimated 62,289 jobs, according to BLS data. This brings the total pandemic employment losses to 47,172 jobs, resulting in $5.6 billion lost in annual wages. “As oil demand has pushed higher, it’s heartening to see continued job growth in the sector,” said Energy Workforce & Technology Council CEO Leslie Beyer. “The sector has recovered more than half of the jobs lost to the pandemic, and we expect continued growth in 2022.” Using BLS data, the Council, in consultation with researchers from the Hobby School of Public Affairs at the University of Houston, found that reductions were heaviest in April 2020, when the sector shed 57,294 jobs — the largest one-month total since at least 2013. Sector employment grew at an average monthly rate of 0.6% in 2021 as companies have maintained focus on reducing debt, repaying investors and investing in research and development. The Council is the national trade association for the energy technology and services sector representing 600,000 jobs in the technology-driven energy value chain. More than 450 member companies are involved in energy equipment manufacturing, drilling, well completions, well services, pressure pumping, renewable energy technology and servicing, geothermal development, and more. The innovative men and women who comprise this sector are leaders in developing and deploying innovative technologies on a global scale that increase efficiency, improve environmental performance, and reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Below are the top states for employment in the energy technology and services sector, and estimated job gains in December 2021 compared to the same month in 2020, according to BLS data:

Capline Pipeline reversal fully online with extra Canadian crude capacity Capline Pipeline reversal fully online with extra Canadian ..The reversed Capline Pipeline is fully online and has enough excess capacity to roughly double its current Canadian oil sands crude volumes. The Capline reversal project to send crude from Patoka, Illinois to St. James, Louisiana started interim service Dec. 18 and entered full service Jan. 1 with initial volumes of about 100,000 b/d. But the pipeline currently has capacity of about 200,000 b/d and excess capacity is available for both contracted and spot shipments, said Marathon Petroleum spokesman Jamal Kheiry. "Currently, there is available space on the 200,000 b/d pipeline. When additional capacity is required based on market demand, existing pump stations can be reactivated," Kheiry said in a statement. Capline is a 632-mile, 40-inch pipeline system that historically moved crude from the Louisiana Gulf Coast to Midwestern refiners. But, as demand has picked up for crude oil from Canada and the Bakken shale -- both for Gulf Coast refiners and export markets -- the decision was made to reverse the line and carry crude to the Louisiana Gulf Coast where it has easy access to refineries and LOOP. Capline, which is owned by Marathon and Plains All American Pipeline, connects to Canada via Enbridge's Mainline pipeline system Enbridge's 300,000 b/d Southern Access Extension pipeline, which Enbridge eventually plans to increase to roughly 400,000 b/d through optimization efforts. TC Energy's Keystone Pipeline also stretches to Patoka. However, Enbridge's expansion plans may be on hold after its Mainline contracting proposal was recently rejected by Canadian regulators. And how much crude flows into Patoka may limit the available volumes to move through Capline. Enbridge's contracting negotiations are expected to extend into 2023. Marathon and Plains have said that Capline will start out shipping "100% Canadian crude" -- as opposed to lighter barrels from the Bakken Shale. Future growth will depend on demand, as well as on Patoka volumes, said Plains Chief Commercial Officer Jeremy Goebel in a November earnings call. "I think there's a number of projects potentially restructuring how crude gets across the Canadian border and what markets it goes to," Goebel said. "And so, once there's clarity with Enbridge and its shippers and [TC Energy] and its shippers, I think we'll see how many barrels flow to Patoka and the potential to expand it. So we definitely think there's opportunities to increase from where it is today, but there needs to be certainty of which barrels end up in Patoka." Capline has maximum potential capacity of 1.2 million b/d, but money would need to be spent on reconfiguring more pumping stations to get there over time.

U.S. Crude Stocks Drop as Production Levels Off, Demand Increases - Inventories of U.S. oil continued to decline early in 2022 – extending a trend that developed last year – as petroleum demand climbed and production ticked down, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) said Wednesday. For the week ended Jan. 7, domestic commercial crude inventories, excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, decreased by 4.6 million bbl from the previous week. At 413.3 million bbl, U.S. stocks are 8% below the five-year average, EIA said in its latest Weekly Petroleum Status Report.The decline reflects steady demand growth over the past several months that extended into January. Consumption of gasoline, diesel and jet fuel all have recovered substantial ground over the past year – following the pandemic-induced demand destruction of 2020 – and continue to advance. The U.S. demand trajectory is amplified by similar trends in Asia, Europe and other international markets as economies gather momentum, travel increases and consumption of fuel derived from oil mounts, Rystad Energy analysts said.Brent crude prices, the global benchmark, climbed Wednesday and approached $85/bbl – up more than 50% from year earlier levels.Oil prices are “buoyed by positive demand signals for 2022,” said Rystad senior analyst Louise Dickson. “The global demand outlook for 2022 is solid, as many countries keep their borders open and avoid implementing the strict lockdowns imposed during previous Covid-19 waves.”While the highly infectious Omicron variant of the coronavirus is driving surges in infections early this year, Dickson noted, to date it has proven “a less severe strain for most who contract it.”Total U.S. petroleum demand for the Jan. 7 period rose 6% week/week. Consumption has consistently exceeded year-earlier levels for several months. Total products supplied over the last four-week period averaged 20.8 million b/d, up 11% from the same period last year. Over the same stretch, motor gasoline demand averaged 8.7 million b/d, ahead 12%, and distillate fuel consumption averaged 3.8 million b/d, up 7%. Jet fuel demand spiked 28% to 1.5 million b/d.At the same time, particularly in the Lower 48, producers are under pressure to hold a conservative line on crude output and divert more investment dollars to renewable fuel projects, said BTU Analytics LLC President Kathryn Downey Miller.“Anticipation of the energy transition (and overzealous assumptions on timing) is scaring off just enough investment in the sector to buoy prices at levels producers once dreamed of,” she said. Domestic crude output last week declined by 100,000 b/d from the previous week to 11.7 million b/d. The late-December level had marked a high for 2021. It was up about 7% from a year earlier at the end of last month. But production was still more than 1 million b/d below pre-pandemic levels.Internationally, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), headed by Saudi Arabia, and a Russia-led group of allies known as OPEC-plus, last week agreed to increase production by 400,000 b/d in February, continuing a pace of monthly supply increases the cartel began in August.OPEC-plus officials said global supply and demand could align in the first half of this year as long as the cartel meets its targets in coming months and demand does not surge further. However, analysts noted that some oil producing countries are struggling to increase production, including war-torn Libya as well as both Nigeria and Angola, which have struggled with deteriorating infrastructure.In a separate report this week, EIA projected that global petroleum production would increase by 5.5 million b/d in 2022, driven by increases in the United States as well as among OPEC-plus members. EIA expects further output increases next year. The agency also forecast that global consumption would increase by 3.6 million b/d this year, boosted by demand in the United States and China, which together account for 39% of the expected growth.

U.S. Drilling Total Increases by Double Digits as Activity Climbs in Eagle Ford, Haynesville - On the strength of sharp gains in the Eagle Ford and Haynesville shales, the U.S. rig count surged 13 units higher to 601 for the week ended Friday (Jan. 14), according to the latest numbers from Baker Hughes Co. (BKR). Net gains in the United States included 11 oil-directed rigs and two natural gas-directed rigs, with 11 added on land and two in the Gulf of Mexico. The 601 active rigs as of Friday compares with 373 rigs running in the year-earlier period, according to the BKR numbers, which are partly based on data from Enverus. Nine horizontal rigs were added week/week, alongside two directional rigs and two vertical units. The Canadian rig count jumped 50 units for the period to 191 in the latest BKR count, including 43 oil-directed rigs and seven natural gas-directed. The combined Canadian count ended the period 30 units higher year/year. Broken down by major producing region, the Eagle Ford led with a net increase of six rigs for the week, bringing its tally to 50, up from 28 in the year-earlier period. The Haynesville picked up three rigs, while two were added in the Marcellus Shale. The Permian Basin added one rig during the week to bring its total to 293, versus 189 a year ago. Counting by state, Texas saw its total jump seven units to 281, while Louisiana added three rigs to raise its count to 55. Alaska, Pennsylvania and West Virginia each saw net increases of one rig for the period, according to the BKR data. The rising rig numbers have correlated with signs of activity growth for the oilfield services sector. The U.S. OFS and equipment sector added an estimated 7,450 jobs in December, the Houston-based Energy Workforce & Technology Council said recently. “As oil demand has pushed higher, it’s heartening to see continued job growth in the sector,” said Council CEO, Leslie Buyer. “The sector has recovered more than half of the jobs lost to the pandemic, and we expect continued growth in 2022.” The 1.1% jobs gain for December represents a month/month rebound. For November, the Council reported a 0.1%, or 815-job, decline in OFS employment. The 17,000-plus OFS employment increase reported for August through October dwarfed the November dip, however.

US oil, gas rig count leaps 15 on week to 722, but most big basins just add one: Enverus -- The US oil and gas rig count leaped 15 to 722 on the week, energy analytics and software company Enverus said Jan. 13, as E&P operators took advantage of replenished new year capital budgets to resume a brisk pace of rig adds. Oil-directed rigs jumped 13 to 707, while rigs chasing natural gas moved up two to 172 during a week where crude prices moved over $80/b. "The increase this week was impressive, but I wouldn't consider it to be out of the ordinary," Taylor Cavey, senior analyst-supply and production at S&P Global Analytics, said. "Looking back, there were several occasions with similar increases in the last few weeks and months. I wouldn't read too much into it." "We're expecting similar growth to 2021 through this year," Cavey said. Some 300 rigs were added to the rig count in 2021 after starting the year at 406. "Also, we generally don't make substantial changes to the rig forecast ... and don't foresee anything changing this month," said Cavey. Oil and gas prices moved up this week, according to S&P Global Platts estimates. WTI prices averaged $80.09/b, up $3.11, while WTI Midland averaged $81.32/b, up $3.38 and Bakken Composite averaged $80.40/b, up $3.79. Also, gas at Henry Hub averaged $4.11/MMBtu, up 40 cents while at Dominion South it averaged $3.87/MMBtu, up 61 cents. Most of the eight biggest domestic basins added a single rig for the week ended Jan. 12. That included the Permian Basin of West Texas/New Mexico, the Haynesville Shale of East Texas/Northwest Louisiana, the Eagle Ford Shale of South Texas, the SCOOP-STACK play in Oklahoma, the Marcellus Shale, largely sited in Pennsylvania and West Virginia, and the Utica Shale, mostly in Ohio. Permian again at 300 rigs That caused the Permian to tick up again to 300, a figure it has wobbled around in recent weeks, the Haynesville to 66, the Eagle Ford to 58, the SCOOP-STACK to 41, the Marcellus to 39, and the Utica to 11. The only two basins that didn't add a rig were the DJ Basin chiefly in Colorado and the Bakken Shale in North Dakota/Montana. The DJ rigs remained stable at 16 rigs for the week ended Jan. 12, while the Bakken lost a rig leaving 31. The Haynesville's 66 rigs represent a recent activity record – the highest level since the first week of March 2019. Directionally oriented rigs drove the rig count for the week ended Jan. 12, gaining eight to 77. Horizontal rigs were sluggish on the week, climbing by just three to 571, while vertical rigs gained four to 74. But horizontal rigs drove the year's rig adds, closing out 2021 at 563 after beginning the year at 333. But private E&P companies accounted for most of the total rig adds for the week ended Jan. 12. Privates added 12 rigs for a total 406. In contrast, majors and large-cap independents each added just two rigs as a group – pushing up large cap independents to 120 and majors to 49.

EIA expects shale to drive record U.S. oil production in 2023 --U.S. annual oil production is set to rise to a record next year as shale producers continue to boost output. Oil supply will average 12.41 million barrels a day in 2023, according to the Energy Information Administration. That would surpass the current annual high of 12.3 million barrels a day set in 2019, the EIA said in its monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook report. The agency also lowered its production estimate for this year to 11.8 million barrels a day. The projected rise in U.S. output would represent nine consecutive quarters of growth, beginning the last three months of 2021, the EIA said. U.S. crude production reached a monthly peak in late 2019, months before the pandemic jolted global markets and forced producers to slash output. Since then oil prices have recovered by more than 50% but major producers have been wary of bringing back supplies too quickly, keeping monthly figures below pre-pandemic highs. “Relatively high crude oil prices should result in an ample availability of funding to support the production increase,” the EIA said in the monthly report. The agency sees domestic output surpassing 12 million barrels a day from the fourth quarter of this year. Benchmark U.S. crude futures prices have been off to a strong start to the year, adding over $5 a barrel since 2021 ended. The agency also sees global petroleum supply rising to a record this year of 101.05 million barrels a day. That’s an upward revision from last month’s forecast of 100.93 million. The EIA expects global production will rise further to 102.8 million barrels a day in 2023. Global consumption is set to reach 100.52 million barrels a day this year from its previous estimate of 100.46 million, according to the report. Consumption is expected to jump to 102.3 million barrels a day in 2023.

Oil production to keep surging under Biden - U.S. crude oil production is projected to set a full-year record in 2023, the federal Energy Information Administration said in a new report. The forecast in EIA's wider monthly outlook yesterday signals the recovery from the pandemic-fueled production collapse in 2020. It also shows how oil-and-gas development is slated to remain robust even as the White House says it's aiming to reorient the economy around zero-carbon energy. By the numbers: EIA sees annual U.S. production averaging 12.4 million barrels per day (mbd) in 2023, slightly ahead of 2019's 12.3 mbd average, though they don't see the peak of nearly 13 mbd reached in late 2019. Yes, but: EIA monthly forecasts are a snapshot in time and bounce around based on variables like, say, the pace of pandemic recovery. EIA's current 2023 forecast is based on oil prices that are actually well below today's levels.

U.S. gasoline markets point to bad news for Biden this summer--The gasoline market is painting a picture of tight supplies this summer -- the last thing Joe Biden will want to see as he tries to contain high fuel prices. On the New York Mercantile Exchange, futures contracts for gasoline are in an increasingly bullish structure called backwardation. They show that those who trade the fuel expect a summer of relatively weak supply and strong demand. And that doesn’t bode well for a U.S. president who’s trying to keep fuel costs low. The U.S. typically builds its supplies of gasoline from November through February. Then, they’re drawn back down in spring and the summer driving season. This year, inventories are starting off well below the seasonal norm and there are signs that work on oil refineries could slow the buildup of stockpiles. ExxonMobil Corp.’s Baytown oil refinery, the fourth largest in the U.S., has suffered a fire and this spring’s refinery maintenance season is set to be heavy. Demand, meanwhile, has been trending above normal. Supplies are also low in Europe -- one of the country’s biggest suppliers. This summer’s backwardation -- whereby more immediate contracts are priced at a premium to later ones -- is currently much steeper than it’s been at this time of year since at least 2017. It’s also more deeply backwardated than Brent crude, the global oil benchmark. The Biden administration has invested a lot of time and effort in jawboning oil prices lower and orchestrating a global release of strategic petroleum reserves.

Oil jobs abound in West Texas, but obstacles hamper hiring -Brent crude oil futures were trading at $85 a barrel Wednesday and West Texas Intermediate at $83, which historically would have oil producers scrambling to drill. While we’ve seen a steady uptick in the rig count in places like the Permian Basin, it’s nothing like what we would likely have seen decades ago. But any uptick in oil and gas activity is welcome news for the economy of Midland, Texas, and the folks who live and work there. The unemployment rate in Midland is 4.5%, down from 6.7% over the summer, thanks in no small part to more activity in the oil fields. Grant Swartzwelder, president of OTA Environmental Solutions, an oil field services firm in the area, said there are jobs to be filled, but the tight labor market is making it tough to do so. Sign up for the daily Marketplace newsletter to make sense of the most important business and economic news. “When Whataburger will pay $15 an hour just to flip burgers, you know, that trickles all the way through to some mechanics” Swartzwelder said. But he said it’s not fast food restaurants he’s worried about. Big Oil companies poach his workers with higher pay. Swartzwelder’s been in the industry here for 37 years and said in the past when oil was $80 a barrel, people migrated here for work. “In boom times, you would see license plates from all over the 50 states here in Midland, and you’re not seeing that.” “Whether folks are just tired of the bust-boom cycles, and just saying, ‘You know, I don’t need that extra money, I’ll just stay put,’” he said. The United States is also trying to slowly wean itself off of fossil fuels, so oil and gas jobs could be short lived. But Garrett Golding, a business economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, said people can’t just transition to green energy jobs overnight. “It’s hard to see how the workers that are out there doing that type of work are just going to drop everything and go work in the renewable sector. It’s not really that simple at all,” Golding said. A transition away from oil and gas tax revenue wouldn’t be simple, either.

U.S. Upstream Dealmaking Fueled by Permian, Haynesville - The Permian Basin and natural gas-rich Haynesville Shale accounted for nearly all of the upstream transactions in the final three months of 2021, but dealmaking overall was down sharply from the third quarter, Enverus reported. The value of Lower 48 merger and acquisition (M&A) activity between exploration and production (E&P) companies totaled $9 billion in 4Q2021, versus $18.5 billion in 3Q2021, the energy data analytics firm said. For the full year, M&A values reached $66 billion, 25% higher than in 2020, when oil and gas deal values were pummeled by Covid 19. The annual total for 2021 was below the $72 billion average fetched between 2015 and 2019, before the pandemic. “Since the emergence of Covid, upstream M&A has been characterized by fewer, but larger, deals,” said Enverus director Andrew Dittmar. “During 2020, that took the form of public companies consolidating amongst themselves…” Last year, the focus centered on “rolling up private E&Ps. But the volume of deals remained depressed, with 172 and 179 transactions in 2020 and 2021, respectively, versus an average of nearly 400 deals per year before Covid.” The No. 1 deal in the quarter was by Oklahoma City-based Continental Resources Inc. The E&P, long focused in the Midcontinent, entered the Permian with a $3.25 billion acquisition from Pioneer Natural Resources Co. At No. 2 was Southwestern Energy Co., which agreed to pay $1.85 billion to buy GEP Haynesville, which was the third largest private equity (PE) explorer in the Haynesville and Middle Bossier formations. In at third was Earthstone Energy Inc., which in December paid $604 million for PE-backed Chisholm Energy Holdings LLC for assets in the Permian’s Delaware sub- basin. The fourth biggest deal in the fourth quarter was by Paloma Resources LLC, an affiliate of PE giant EnCap Investments, which last month took Haynesville-focused Goodrich Petroleum Corp. private in a deal valued at around $480 million. Rounding out the top five was a $419 million deal by Diversified Energy Co. plc, which expanded into the Midcontinent by acquiring Oklahoma assets from PE-sponsored Tapstone Energy Holdings LLC. The Permian Delaware and Haynesville, researchers noted, were the two most active plays of 4Q2021 and combined to account for 80% of the quarter’s transaction value. “Buyers have been largely focused on adding high quality inventory to build out their runway and sustain the strong cash flow generation recently achieved,” Dittmar said. “The largest supply of inventory meeting buyers’ criteria is available for sale in the Delaware for oil and the Haynesville for gas. That is largely because both these plays had significant private investment in prior years that the sponsors are now looking to monetize via sales to a public company.”

Shale Drillers Avoid Emission Cuts From Rockies to Great Plains – --Less than half of oil and natural gas drillers in the U.S. Great Plains and Rocky Mountains plan to curb emissions of carbon dioxide and methane this year, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.Even fewer have any plans to cut back on flaring of excess gas or recycle water used in fracking wells, the Kansas City Fed found in its fourth-quarter survey of energy executives.Those same managers said they need benchmark crude prices to average about $73 a barrel to justify new drilling and higher output. They foresee oil prices remaining above the $75 level through at least the middle of the decade, the survey found.The Kansas City Fed’s jurisdiction includes Oklahoma, Wyoming, Colorado, Kansas, Nebraska and parts of Missouri and New Mexico.

Midcontinent, Rockies Record Highest Oil and Gas Prices in Years to Spur Drilling, Kansas City Fed Says - Average oil and natural gas prices of $73/bbl and $4.27/MMBtu, respectively, were needed to justify substantially more drilling during the fourth quarter of 2021, according to a survey of Midcontinent and Rockies energy firms by the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City. That translates into the highest “substantial increase price” average recorded for oil since 2Q2015 and the highest ever substantial increase price for gas since 2015, the Kansas City Fed noted. “District drilling and business activity continued to grow through the end of 2021,” The Kansas City Fed asks Midcontinent and Rockies firms every other quarter about oil and gas prices needed for drilling to increase substantially. Average prices for the 2Q2021 survey were $72 for oil and $3.82/MMBtu for gas. Energy firms surveyed operate in the Fed’s Tenth District, the Kansas City Fed’s jurisdiction. This spans Colorado, Kansas, Nebraska, Oklahoma, Wyoming, and parts of Missouri and New Mexico. The 4Q2021 survey ran from Dec. 15 to Jan. 3 and included 33 responses, the Kansas City Fed noted. In addition to asking firms about current-quarter substantial drilling increase prices, the Kansas City Fed sought their projections for West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil and New York Mercantile Exchange Henry Hub natural gas prices in the coming years. In six months, firms on average foresee a $75 WTI price, increasing to $78 both one year and two years hence. The firms expect WTI prices to jump to $80 in five years. For the Henry Hub benchmark, Midcontinent and Rockies companies surveyed by the Kansas City Fed anticipate $3.66 in six months, $3.92 in one year, $3.97 in two years and $4.29 in five years. The survey results also suggest an uptick in year/year capital spending by Midcontinent and Rockies oil and gas players. “Firm revenues have risen along with higher wages and benefits for workers,” “Contacts also reported higher capital spending plans for 2022 compared to 2021.” About one-fifth of firms surveyed told the Kansas City Fed they plan to “significantly” increase capital spending in 2022 compared to year-ago levels. The Fed district said that “another 50% expected slight increases. Only 6% of firms expected capital spending to decline.” Roughly 25% project year/year capex to stay about the same, added the Kansas City Fed. It also reported that several firms cited inflation as the driver for higher capital spending on services and materials. “Inflation is hitting the equipment purchases for new wells,” said one respondent. Emissions reduction will be another priority for many Midcontinent and Rockies firms, according to survey results. When asked about environmental plans, 45% of firms surveyed noted they expect to lower carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions, the Kansas City Fed said. It said that another 41% aim to cut methane emissions, 28% plan to recycle/reuse water and 21% seek to reduce flaring. “Another 38% of firms indicated they did not have” plans linked to curbing CO2 or methane emissions, recycling or reusing water, and cutting flaring.

Why Is the Biden White House Refusing to Confront the Oil and Gas Industry? | Sierra Club -Last November, the Biden administration announced that it would protect the Greater Chaco Canyon landscape in New Mexico from future oil and gas leasing. The area is culturally significant for Pueblo peoples in the Southwest, and the decision was seen as both a victory for Indigenous nations and a setback for the fossil fuel industry. . The New York Times described the executive order as an element of the administration’s “ambitious climate agenda.” Just two days later, however, the Biden administration held a large auction for new oil and gas leases in the Gulf of Mexico. The lease sale had been ordered by a federal judge, who earlier in 2021 had ruled that the administration hadn’t followed the law in pausing oil and gas sales. Nevertheless, environmentalists were dismayed. Earthjustice called the lease sale a “huge climate bomb.” The contradictory moves—blocking oil and gas development in one area but greenlighting an expansion in another, even if under judicial duress—exemplify President Biden’s approach to climate change in his first year in office. While he has made some important steps to cut US greenhouse gas emissions, his administration's reluctance to directly confront the oil and gas industry is becoming increasingly apparent, according to environmental and Indigenous groups. “They can't have it both ways. They can't talk about climate and then commit massive amounts of new fossil fuels in the face of a climate crisis,” Taylor McKinnon, senior public lands campaigner at the Center for Biological Diversity, told Sierra. “They're plagued by a lack of climate ambition at the highest levels of the administration.” During his first days in office, Biden canceled the Keystone XL Pipeline and directed the Department of the Interior to pause oil and gas leasing on federal lands while it undertook a comprehensive review of the programs. Those moves signaled that climate change would be a central theme to the Biden era. In April, Biden held an international summit with global leaders, during which he announced a new emissions target—the United States would aim to cut emissions by 50 to 52 percent by 2030. The announcement also nudged other countries to ratchet up their ambition. During the summer, the Department of Treasury pushed multilateral development banks to end overseas financing for most fossil fuel projects, and this past fall, the EPA announced new regulations on methane emissions from the oil and gas industry. Right before Christmas, the EPA unveiled tough new fuel economy standards for cars and trucks—an especially important move, given that transportation is the largest source of US greenhouse gas emissions. Despite these moves, Biden’s climate record to date has been more piecemeal than transformational. The White House is not yet employing all of the levers available to the executive branch to tackle the climate crisis. So far, the Biden administration appears to be prioritizing the easy actions while avoiding moves that could antagonize political enemies—like the powerful oil and gas industry.

Anti-fracking Boulder advises residents to bundle up as natgas costs soar --The city of Boulder, a haven of anti-fracking activism, offered tips Monday to residents struggling with rising home-heating prices amid a global natural-gas shortage. The city’s website warned that residential natural gas bills are expected to increase this year by 37% over last winter and offered hints to keep costs down, including lowering the thermostat, washing clothes in cold water and dressing in layers. “It’s not just up to your furnace to keep you warm,” the Boulder website said. “Dressing in layers can keep you warm while relying less on your heat source.” Citing data from Xcel Energy, the city said that the average natural gas bill is expected to rise from $71 to about $98 per month, not including electricity costs. “Behind the bigger bills are higher energy costs nationally and natural gas supply challenges,” the Boulder tip sheet says. Its title is “Heating Costs Are Rising This Winter. Here’s How to Keep Your Bill Affordable.” The irony was not lost on the Colorado Republican Party, given Boulder’s years of hostility to the oil-and-gas industry. The city and county of Boulder filed a lawsuit in 2018 against ExxonMobil and Suncor seeking “damages related to climate change.” From 2013 to 2021, Boulder had a moratorium on hydraulic fracturing, which was lifted last month as the city council enacted tough new regulations on the industry. In 2018, Boulder voters approved an oil-and-gas pollution tax. “Boulder has blocked energy [development] at every turn, pushed statewide policies to ban fracking, and sued energy companies – now they are complaining about the high energy costs and supply challenges they helped create,” tweeted the Colorado GOP.

Longtime MPCA employee alleges retaliation over petroleum complaints | MPR News A longtime employee of the Minnesota Pollution Control Agency has filed a whistleblower lawsuit, claiming he faced retaliation for raising concerns about how the agency handles petroleum leak sites. Mark Toso resigned in June after nearly 30 years at the MPCA, the last decade as a hydrologist in the petroleum remediation program. The program is responsible for investigating, evaluating and removing risks from petroleum releases from storage tanks. Those leaks can contaminate soil and groundwater, create dangerous vapors and affect drinking water supplies. Mark Toso Mark Toso had worked at the MPCA for nearly 30 years.Courtesy photo In November, Toso sued the MPCA in Ramsey County District Court, alleging that the agency penalized him for voicing concerns that the program was failing to protect groundwater and endangering the public. "I'm hoping this lawsuit brings changes to the agency because they're sorely needed,” Toso said in an interview in December. Petroleum storage tanks — often buried underground — can corrode over time and leak chemicals into the soil and groundwater, the source of drinking water for three-fourths of Minnesotans. Since Minnesota’s petroleum remediation program began in the late 1980s, there have been more than 20,000 petroleum leak sites reported across the state. Most have been deemed no longer a risk to the environment or public health and closed by the MPCA, meaning there’s no further cleanup or monitoring, Toso said. “The problem is that they told everybody that they were cleaning up these sites and closing them,” he said. “But in reality, they weren’t.” Toso said about 5,000 closed sites involve leaded gasoline, banned in the U.S. in 1996. It contains toxic additives known as lead scavengers, which are designed to prevent lead deposits in engines and don’t break down easily.

Enbridge-funded state account has paid over $4.5M for Line 3 policing - Enbridge has doled out about $4.8 million to cover policing and public safety costs related to construction of its new Line 3 across northern Minnesota — and the final tab will be higher.Meanwhile, courts in counties along the pipeline's route are clogged with hundreds of cases involving protesters. Several have been charged with felony theft for chaining themselves to pipeline construction equipment.The felony theft charges, which have been levied in several counties, are prosecutorial overkill, said Joshua Preston, an attorney representing at least 35 defendants. "They are intended to have a chilling effect — to discourage people from engaging in protest."But Hubbard County Attorney Jonathan Frieden said by chaining themselves to equipment, protesters deprived contractors the use of their property, which is a theft under state law."When they break the law, we charge people," he said.Many protests were expected after Enbridge won final approvals in late 2020 to build its 340-mile new Line 3 across northern Minnesota.With that in mind, the Minnesota Public Utilities Commission (PUC) required Enbridge to fund a public safety escrow account when it approved new Line 3, a replacement for an aging and corroding pipeline.The safety fund was aimed at protecting cities and counties from being deluged with large bills for policing pipeline protests, which ended up being continual throughout the construction process, especially in the summer. The fund has been criticized by anti-pipeline groups that say Enbridge was able to use local police as a security force, something denied by both the company and law enforcement agencies.Through Jan. 7, the PUC had accepted 175 reimbursement requests from 86 state, county and local agencies — almost all of them law enforcement.Most of the money has covered officers' expenses and wages; police protective gear; and training and law enforcement preparation for protests. The largest recipient of Enbridge money so far: the Minnesota State Patrol, which submitted a bill for $1.5 million in December.Next largest, in order, were the county sheriff's departments for Cass, $907,507; St. Louis, $360,623; Beltrami, $251,086; and Pennington, $135,859. Hubbard County, a particular hotspot for protests, does not appear to have submitted its full bill yet.The PUC, which administers the account, set a reimbursement deadline of April 1 – which is 180 days after oil began flowing in the new Line 3. Enbridge initially contributed $250,000 and replenished the account as needed; there was no expense cap.The PUC has denied 25 applications for reimbursements, including two sheriffs' office requests of around $25,000 — one each from Polk and Cass counties — for certain types of equipment.Also, the PUC denied two requests from the Hubbard County Attorney's Office — which totaled about $27,000 — for wage and overtime costs. Prosecution expenses are not allowed for reimbursement, the PUC determined.Hubbard County Attorney Frieden protested to the PUC, but to no avail, PUC records show. Hubbard was the only county that attempted to get prosecution expenses covered by the public safety fund, according to the PUC.

Halo Effect; We Now Know Which Way The FBIR Johnson Wells Run (East-To-West) -- January 9, 2022 -Now that the Rimrock FBIR Johnson wells have come off confidential status we know which way the horizontals are running. And, whoo-hoo, I was correct; they run west to east: all of section 11; east half of section 10 and west half of section 12: 1280-acre spacing, one full section plus two halves of adjoining sections. These wells are tracked here. Of interest was the effect these east-to-west horizontals would have on the following north-to-south wells:

• 19696, not taken off line, jump in production; see below.
• 24131, not take off line; slight jump in production; see below.
• 24132, recently off line; maybe slight jump in production;
• 24130, not taken off line; production a bit down, if anything.
• 20417, taken off line; back on line; not jump in production.

Judge rules against North Dakota's federal oil leasing request - A judge has denied North Dakota's request for an order forcing the federal government to hold oil lease sales.The Bureau of Land Management is planning to hold such a sale in the first quarter of 2022 after canceling all sales last year. U.S. District Judge Daniel Traynor ruled against the state Friday in part because a U.S. Justice Department attorney offered an assurance earlier in the week that the bureau plans to hold the sale imminently.The dispute arose after President Joe Biden early last year issued an executive order pausing oil leasing on federal lands while a review of the leasing program could take place. A number of oil- and gas-producing states sued the federal government to try to force lease sales to resume. They scored an early victory in June 2021 when a federal judge in Louisiana issued a preliminary injunction prohibiting the federal government from enforcing the president's pause. The Louisiana judge's ruling applies nationwide. Attorney General Wayne Stenehjem filed a separate suit in U.S. District Court in North Dakota seeking additional relief that would force the federal government to hold the lease sales canceled in the state during 2021, along with future sales. Traynor wrote in his order that he agreed with the federal government's assessment that the state had made "a premature request" better dealt with later after the parties have a chance to provide more information to the court. "This preliminary injunction in the Louisiana case provides North Dakota with the protection it needs at this early stage," Traynor wrote. The federal government has appealed the Louisiana ruling. Traynor said North Dakota could try to raise its concerns again if that case is overturned or the scope of the injunction changes. Stenehjem said in a statement that his office "will be closely following the actions of the federal government agencies as they now proceed with the promised lease sales in February and thereafter." "We are fully prepared to hold their feet to the fire and will not hesitate to bring the matter before the Court again as the circumstances warrant," he said. The Justice Department did not immediately respond to a request for comment Friday afternoon. A lawyer for the department at a hearing earlier this week offered a different explanation for why lease sales were canceled in North Dakota last year, saying that the bureau needed to revisit the way it conducts environmental analyses following unrelated court rulings tied to leasing. A date has not yet been announced for the upcoming lease sale. It is expected to include 15 parcels of land in North Dakota. Oil companies can bid on the parcels to secure a lease, which then gives them 10 years to develop the federal minerals. A company must also secure a separate permit from the federal government before drilling for oil.

Oil well site explodes near Grenora; no injuries reported - An oil well site exploded Monday morning near Grenora. The oil storage tank holds approximately 1,300 barrels of oil, according to the Divide County Sheriff’s Department. The fire was contained on-site, and officials are letting it burn out. The cause of the explosion is unknown at this time.

Active oil well fire in Genora, ND - The North Dakota Oil and Gas Division is investigating an active oil well fire on Monday, about 3 miles north of Grenora, North Dakota. Koda Resources Operating, LLC reported the fire at a tank battery on location. The fire is being contained on-site and the wells have been secured. Local emergency response and a state investigator are on site. No injuries have been reported. Koda has estimated 1,362 barrels of crude oil and 1,672 barrels of produced water are on location but, until the fire is out, it is undetermined how much of that has burned up. Federal and state laws require federal and/or state agencies be notified in the event of accidental spillage of any materials that may pollute water, air or soil. More information about notifications and the public access tool can be found on North Dakota’s Unified Spill Reporting System page at spill.nd.gov

U.S. Moves to Restrict Oil Leasing in Alaska – WSJ –The Interior Department said Monday that it plans to block oil and gas leasing on about 11 million acres on Alaska’s North Slope, or roughly half of a 23-million acre reserve set aside for energy development decades ago.The action, announced in connection with a federal lawsuit brought by environmentalists, would reverse a Trump administration effort to expand oil production in the National Petroleum Reserve in Alaska.The reserve had been set aside for oil and gas development in the 1920s. Under former President Barack Obama, the federal government restricted oil and gas development to 11.8 million acres of the reserve.The Trump administration moved to expand that to 18.6 million acres, saying developing the resources would improve the nation’s energy security and boost the Alaskan economy.That drew a lawsuit from environmental groups. President Biden ordered a review, and on Monday Interior officials said that cutting back the area that can be leased will benefit threatened and endangered species without offering specifics. Its decision would revert to the Obama-era plan for the region, restoring restrictions on the 7 million acres of land the Trump administration had planned to open up.Mr. Biden has been looking to restrict oil production from federal land as a way to reduce the planet-warming gases that cause climate change.That is stirring opposition in Alaska, where the economy and state budget are deeply tied to the health of the state’s oil industry, but where swaths of land are controlled by the federal government.“This is another sign of the federal government turning its back on Alaska and hampering domestic energy production,” Alaska Gov. Mike Dunleavy’s office said. “The U.S. Department of Interior is putting the nation in a situation where we have to rely on foreign oil … at a time for growing prices and concern for American consumers.”Mr. Biden has been under pressure from environmental groups to fulfill a campaign pledge to ban new permits for oil and gas drilling on federal land and offshore.“That still falls far short of what the administration’s commitments are on climate,” said Jeremy Lieb, a lawyer with nonprofit Earthjustice, of Monday’s announcement.Mr. Biden has also suspended oil leasing in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge, a largely untouched 19 million acres on the opposite side of Alaska’s Arctic, in the northeast corner of the state.

North Slope oil production holds steady as two new ConocoPhillips projects ramp up - North Slope oil production is holding steady and is set for an increase in January with two new ConocoPhilllips projects ramping up. ConocoPhillips started production Dec. 12 at GMT-2, an accumulation in the National Petroleum Reserve west of the Alpine field, and on Dec. 14, the company began sustained production at Narwhal, an oil accumulation extending south of the Alpine field. As production from both projects is gradually throttled up there will be an increase in total slope production through the spring. The Prudhoe Bay field in northern Alaska showed continued production increases in December, year-over-year, while other North Slope fields lagged mostly due to natural decline. While overall slope production held steady, Prudhoe Bay, operated by Houston-based major independent Hilcorp Energy, saw an increase, averaging 326,262 barrels per day in December, up from 311,172 barrels per day on average the same month a year earlier and 295,417 barrels per day on average in December, 2019. Other fields on the slope, including Kuparuk River, second largest on the slope and the smaller Lisburne field, showed declines. The Alpine field west of Prudhoe Bay and Kuparuk River showed a small increase in December thanks to the two new ConocoPhillips projects which produce oil into Alpine field processing plants and are counted as part of that field’s production total. Overall production from the North Slope in December averaged 501,741 b/d, basically on par a 500,020 barrels per day average in December 2020 but down somewhat from a 510,271 b/d averaged in December 2019. GMT-2 is approximately 25 miles west of Alpine and is connected to expected to pipeline and field infrastructure through two other ConocoPhillips projects in the petroleum reserve, GMT-1 and CD-5, which are both producing. GMT-2 is expected to peak at 30,000 barrels per day. The NPR-A is a large 23-million-acre federal enclave on the western North Slope that has seen extensive exploration over several decades but commercial discoveries only in recent years.

Coast Guard investigated minor oil spill near Sandy Beach - Personnel from Coast Guard Sector Juneau investigated an oil sheen near Sandy Beach on Monday, said a Coast Guard officer. Lt. Maren Balke, whose section is responsible for dealing with oil spills, discovered the sheen incidentally and called it into the National Response Center, said Lt. j.g. Stephen Mueller. “Pollution responders went out and did a preliminary investigation and couldn’t determine the source,” Mueller said. “It looks like it’s non-recoverable. It looks weathered. It doesn’t look like a significant amount.” There was a spill of heating oil from a breached tank in late December that has since been fully contained, Mueller said, but there’s no way to link this sheen to that leak. The sheen could also be from a different source that has only recently been opened by thawing ice and snow. The sheen could also come from something like snow scraped off a roadway, Mueller said. “They think maybe it was old oil, but they can’t determine where it came from,” Mueller said. The Coast Guard does not have any ongoing concerns about this spill at this time, Mueller said, as the amount spilled was very minor and doesn’t come from a continuous source.

EIA Raises Oil Price Forecast for 2022 -The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) raised its Brent spot average price forecast for 2022, its January short term energy outlook (STEO) has revealed. The organization now sees Brent spot prices averaging $74.95 per barrel this year, which marks a $4.90 increase on its previous 2022 projection of $70.05, which was made in the EIA’s December STEO. Looking ahead to 2023 for the first time, the latest STEO forecasts that average Brent spot prices will drop to $67.50 per barrel next year. Brent spot prices averaged $70.89 per barrel in 2021, the EIA’s January STEO highlighted. In its latest STEO, the EIA projects that global oil inventories will increase at a rate of 500,000 barrels per day in 2022 and 600,000 barrels per day in 2023. The EIA estimates that global liquid fuels inventories fell by an average of 1.4 million barrels per day in 2021. These were said to have grown by 2.1 million barrels per day in 2020. The organization expects global liquid fuels consumption will grow by 3.6 million barrels per day in 2022 and by 1.8 million barrels per day in 2023. OPEC crude oil production is expected to rise by 2.5 million barrels per day to average 28.8 million barrels per day in 2022 and by a further 100,000 barrels per day in 2023 to average 28.9 million barrels per day. U.S. crude oil production is expected to average 11.8 million barrels per day this year before rising to a new record of 12.4 million barrels per day in 2023. The U.S. was shown to have averaged 11.2 million barrels per day in 2021. Its current record of 12.3 million barrels per day was set in 2019. The EIA notes that its latest STEO continues to reflect heightened levels of uncertainty as a result of the ongoing Covid-19 pandemic. “Notably, the Omicron variant of Covid-19 raises questions about global energy consumption,” the EIA noted in its January STEO. “In addition to macroeconomic uncertainties, uncertainty about winter weather and consumer energy demand also present a wide range of potential outcomes for energy consumption,” the EIA added. “Supply uncertainty in the forecast stems from uncertainty about OPEC+ production decisions and the rate at which U.S. oil and natural gas producers will increase drilling,” the EIA continued.

Where the oil industry is headed in 2022 - After recovering from a near-death experience in 2021, the U.S. oil and gas industry could be in for a bumpy ride in 2022 that will influence how much the industry drills, cuts emissions and invests in clean energy. While oil prices have begun to stabilize after crashing during the pandemic, the recovery creates a paradox for oil companies. It will repair their bottom lines, according to a recent report from Moody’s Investors Service, but also increases calls for the industry to lower its emissions of climate-warming pollution and transition away from fossil fuels. “The corresponding increase in carbon emissions from greater oil consumption will likely lead to added investor pressure on oil companies to transition their businesses, and to inspire more policy initiatives aimed at reducing demand for oil and natural gas,” the Thursday report said. Interior Department plans and pending rules from EPA on methane emissions could further change the trajectory for the sector across the country. Other changes in the industry, including technology and a drive for efficiency, also could shift the outlook this year for the workers and communities that rely on the industry for jobs. And while prices are higher than they were during the pandemic lows, they could whipsaw for the first half of the year, with repercussions for emissions and drilling levels, analysts say. Here are four industry trends to watch this year:

Canadian oil exports to Asia reach record with new U.S. link --Canada's oil sands producers were able to export a record amount of crude to overseas markets thanks to a new link to the U.S. Gulf Coast. The recent reversal of Marathon Pipe Line Inc.’s Capline pipeline is sending oil sands crude produced in landlocked Alberta to export terminals on Gulf Coast where it can be shipped to other countries. Exports to Asia were at their highest ever, with India the leading destination by far, followed by China and then South Korea, according to oil analytics firm Kpler. The development marks a sea change for Canada’s oil industry. The country holds the third highest crude reserves in the world, but exports to markets beyond the U.S. have been limited due to a lack of infrastructure. Canada has faced severe opposition from activists for building pipelines from the oil sands region to British Columbia’s Pacific Coast. Additionally, the Biden Administration last year blocked the Keystone XL pipeline, effectively shutting Canada’s crude out of the global market. “Looking ahead, Canadian crude exports out of the U.S. Gulf should continue to show strength,” said Matt Smith, oil analyst at Kpler. “With Venezuelan crude exports having tanked in recent years, and now with the prospect of Mexican crude being taken off the market, Canadian crude appears to be one of the leading beneficiaries of these changing dynamics.” Shipments of heavy crude jumped to more than 266,000 barrels a day in December after averaging over 180,000 through the year, according to Kpler. Canadian crude exports from the U.S. Gulf Coast averaged just 25,000 barrels a day in 2018, before rising to average around 70,000 in both 2019 and 2020. In October, overall Canadian shipments of oil to the U.S. jumped to more than 4 million barrels a day, highest volume since the start of the year thanks in part to the startup of a long-delayed Canadian pipeline.

Shrink to fit: the year Big Oil starts to become Small Oil --Europe’s Big Oil companies are planning to spend their windfall from high energy prices on becoming Small Oil. Surging oil and gas prices in 2021 delivered billions of dollars in profits to top oil companies, in stark contrast to the previous year when energy prices collapsed as the coronavirus pandemic hit travel and economic activity. Typically, companies would invest the lion’s share of that cash in long-term projects to boost oil and gas production and reserves after the previous year’s deep cuts. But unlike any other time in their history, BP, Royal Dutch Shell, TotalEnergies, Equinor and Italy’s Eni are focusing on returning as much cash as possible to shareholders to keep them sweet as they begin a risky shift towards low-carbon and renewable energy. “All of the large oil companies are managing decline to a degree,” by shifting to fields that provide larger investment returns for shareholders and leaving more mature assets behind, said Ben Cook, portfolio manager with BP Capital Fund Advisors. The growing pressure from investors, activists and governments to tackle climate change means that European oil giants are turning off the taps on spending on oil even as the outlook for prices and demand remains robust. The two-pronged strategy of reducing oil output and boosting shareholder returns was underscored when Shell sold its Permian shale oil business in the United States for $9.5 billion in September, promising to return $7 billion to investors. Investors in U.S. companies can also expect their payouts to rise to record amounts, but Exxon Mobil and Chevron, the top U.S. oil and gas companies, plan to continue ploughing money into new oil projects, encouraged by White House calls for more oil output to tackle high energy prices and inflation. In 2022, European firms are set to return to investors a record $54 billion in dividends and share buybacks, according to analysis by Bernstein, while Exxon and Chevron are set to pay more than $30 billion combined.

Emboldened green activists target Argentina’s offshore oil plans --Environmental activists in Argentina are trying to prevent new oil exploration in the resource-rich South American nation just days after forcing a governor in Patagonia to reverse course on silver mining. The government has been lobbying the case for drillers to search for oil in the Atlantic Ocean ever since protests last week in the coastal city of Mar del Plata that brought climate concerns to the fore. The high-profile rally came right after a big victory for Argentina’s green movement. Following violent protests in Chubut province, Governor Mariano Arcioni repealed a law on Dec. 20 that would have allowed Canada’s Pan American Silver Corp. to get to work on a $1 billion mine. Arcioni will instead call a referendum. The reversal in Chubut mirrored what happened in Mendoza province two years ago, when the governor there reacted to protests by revoking provincial legislation passed just days earlier to allow more mines. Argentina, which is trying to develop shale riches in the Vaca Muerta formation, auctioned off areas for deep sea exploration in 2019. Activists have pounced on the issue now because the government only recently gave environmental approval for seismic studies to Norway’s Equinor ASA, Argentina’s state-run YPF SA and Royal Dutch Shell Plc. “They’re trying to create the same gold-rush feeling as when Vaca Muerta was discovered, labeling anybody who opposes it as anti-progress,” Enrique Viale, an environmental activist and lawyer, said in an interview. Chevron Corp. also saw strong environmental resistance when it invested in Argentine shale in 2013. Government officials have spoken out since the Mar del Plata demonstration, saying Argentina needs more industry to help its struggling economy. “The path is to have productive activities while looking after the environment,” Production Minister Matias Kulfas said. But Viale said exploring for more fossil fuels doesn’t square with a government proposal to pay off some of its debt with policies to tackle climate change. Argentina’s environmental movement has been a thorn in the side of industry for years. As well as the victories in Chubut and Mendoza, a 2010 federal law protecting glaciers has limited mining activity more widely. Likewise, twin dams being built in Patagonia had to be scaled back because of concerns about their impact on glaciers upriver.

Senate plans Nord Stream 2 sanctions vote this week - The Senate plans to vote this week on Republican legislation to enact new, crippling sanctions against the Nord Stream 2 natural gas pipeline project from Russia to Germany. The vote stems from a deal between Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) and Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) in December, which made way for the confirmation of dozens of President Biden’s ambassador nominees (E&E Daily, Dec. 20, 2021). Cruz and other Republicans had been delaying quick passage on the president’s picks to protest the White House’s decision earlier last year to waive congressionally mandated sanctions against Nord Stream. The president wanted to reset relations with Germany and said the pipeline was nearly complete. The big question this week is whether Democrats — most of whom oppose Nord Stream just as much as Republicans — will vote to approve new sanctions or side with the White House. Passage would require 60 yes votes. "Virtually every Democrat has voted for sanctions on Nord Stream 2 multiple times," Cruz said last week. "If this were a vote on the merits, it would be unanimous or nearly unanimous. There are multiple Democrats who have told me they’re either going to vote for it or they’re strongly considering voting for it. And it ought to be an easy vote." Former German Chancellor Angela Merkel helped lead the West’s resistance to Russian President Vladimir Putin’s expansionist policies. But Merkel was also a defender of Nord Stream. Now, many lawmakers are keen on the new German government’s view. Secretary of State Antony Blinken, in remarks alongside new German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock last week, said the threat of future sanctions against Nord Stream could deter Russia from invading Ukraine. “This pipeline does not have gas flowing through it at present, and if Russia renews its aggression toward Ukraine, it would certainly be difficult to see gas flowing through it in the future,” Blinken said. “So some may see Nord Stream 2 as leverage that Russia can use against Europe. In fact, it’s leverage for Europe to use against Russia.” Some Democrats have suggested voting on a separate bill, also this week, to impose sanctions if Russia goes ahead with invading Ukraine, but those plans don’t appear to be settled. "My understanding is that the agreement that was worked out at the end of last year is to just have an up-or-down vote on Cruz," said Sen. Chris Murphy (D-Conn.). "That doesn’t mean that we might not consider legislation later on that would include a more robust set of sanctions if Russia moves forward with an invasion."

Gas prices rise as Russian pipeline stays in reverse after three weeks -- A pipeline that usually sends gas from Russia to Europe was stuck in reverse after three weeks on Monday, pushing up prices in Europe at a time of political tension between Moscow and the West. Wholesale prices in Europe were up 6% on Monday as gas on the Yamal-Europe pipeline flowed east from Germany to Poland, adding pressure on the market along with lower wind output and weather outlook. It has now been flowing eastwards since Dec. 21, data from German network operator Gascade showed. Industry sources and analysts said last month that traders were preferring to take gas from stockpiles to supply European buyers and avoid paying near record-high prices. As Russian gas company Gazprom has not seen bids for westbound exports, the pipeline has switched flows. Ronald Smith, senior oil and gas analyst with Russian BCS brokerage, said European customers with prices linked to gas hubs – or central pricing points – “apparently not opting to take any more Gazprom gas than they absolutely have to.” Russian energy exports have been in the spotlight during a diplomatic standoff between Russia and the West, including over a Russian troop buildup near neighbouring Ukraine, which is trying to forge closer ties with NATO. U.S. and Russian officials were holding talks in Geneva on Monday which Washington hopes can avert the danger of a Russian invasion of Ukraine, but diplomats on both sides sounded pessimistic before they began. Some European Union lawmakers have accused Russia, which supplies more than 30% of the bloc’s natural gas, of using the crisis as leverage. They say Moscow has restricted gas flows to secure approval to start up the newly built Nord Stream 2 pipeline, which will supply gas to Germany. Russia has denied the allegations, and says the pipeline will boost gas exports and help alleviate high prices in Europe. It has said it is meeting its contractual obligations on gas deliveries.

Still no Russian gas auctions scheduled on Gazprom Export’s ESP - S&P Global Platts - Russia’s Gazprom Export will not hold any auctions for Russian gas on its Electronic Sales Platform in the week of Jan. 10-14, it said Jan. 10. The company said on its website there were “no planned sales sessions” for the current week, which continues the recent trend for ESP auctions to be suspended.The last scheduled ESP auctions were for the week of Oct. 25-29, while no sales have been recorded since Oct. 13. Gazprom Export launched the ESP in September 2018 as a tool to sell surplus gas into Europe outside of its traditional long-term contract model and has sold more than 51 Bcm of gas since its launch. However, sales slowed in the autumn and volumes sold in October totaled just 168 million cu m, then the smallest volume sold in a calendar month and lower even than the sales in the first month of operation in September 2018. Gazprom has come in for criticism for not increasing supply to Europe at a time of sky-high gas prices, but the company has repeatedly said it has been meeting all of its customer obligations in full. European gas prices hit repeated record highs toward the end of 2021, with unprecedented market volatility triggered by winter supply uncertainty. The TTF day-ahead price hit an all-time high of Eur182.78/MWh on Dec. 21, according to S&P Global Platts assessments, a 985% increase year on year. Prices have cooled somewhat since then, with Platts assessing the TTF day-ahead price at Eur86.73/MWh on Jan. 7.

IEA says oil demand more resilient than expected in the face of Omicron--Global oil demand has proven stronger than expected as the latest coronavirus variant inflicts a softer hit to the economy than anticipated, the International Energy Agency said. “Demand dynamics are stronger than many of the market observers had thought, mainly due to the milder Omicron expectations,” IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol said on a call with reporters on Wednesday. Crude prices have rallied this year, pushing further above $80 a barrel in London, as fuel use proves resilient while supplies suffer a range of setbacks from North America to Libya and Kazakhstan. “We see some of the key producers including Nigeria, Libya and also Ecuador that have serious supply disruptions,” Birol said. In its latest monthly report, the Paris-based agency forecast that world fuel consumption would slide by 740,000 barrels a day this quarter, compared with the preceding three months, as the new virus outbreak added to the typical seasonal slowdown in demand. Birol didn’t specify whether the institution would revise this forecast. It is scheduled to publish its next monthly report on Jan. 19.

 CNOOC To Drill Nearly 360 New Wells This Year - CNOOC has announced in its business strategy and development plan for 2022 that it would increase its net production and drill over 350 wells. Chinese oil and gas major CNOOC Limited has announced in its business strategy and development plan for 2022 that it would increase its net production and drill over 350 wells. CNOOC said that its targeted net production for 2022 is 600 million to 610 million barrels of oil equivalent (boe), of which, production from China and overseas accounts for approximately 69 and 31 percent, respectively. The company’s net production for 2021 is expected to be approximately 570 million boe. In line with the 2022 increase, CNOOC’s net production for 2023 and 2024 is estimated to rise to around 640 to 650 million boe and 680 to 690 million boe, respectively. CNOOC added that its total capital expenditure for 2022 is budgeted at $14.2 to $15.7 billion. The capital expenditures for exploration, development, production, and others will account for approximately 20, 57, 21, and 2 percent of the total capital expenditure, respectively. In 2022, the company plans to drill 227 offshore exploration wells, 132 onshore unconventional exploration wells, and acquire approximately 17 thousand square kilometers of 3D seismic data. This year, 13 new projects are expected to come on stream. These include the Bozhong 29-6 oilfield development, the development of Kenli 6-1 oilfield Block 5-1, 5-2, 6-1, Enping 15-1/10-2/15-2/20-4 oilfields joint development, and the Shenfu South gas field development in China while Liza Phase II is expected to start up in Guyana and the 3M project will start production in Indonesia. To ensure shareholders’ return, subject to the approval by the general meeting of shareholders on the proposed dividends for each year, from 2022 to 2024, the expected annual payout ratio of the company will be no less than 40 percent, and the annual absolute dividend is expected to be no less than $0.09/share.

Weather-related issues add to Libya’s oil export woes--Libya’s oil exports, already sharply curtailed following a blockade by paramilitaries in the west, are set to fall further after bad weather closed ports in the east. The Es Sider, Ras Lanuf, Hariga and Zueitina terminals were shut Saturday and are likely to remain closed until early next week, two people said, asking not to be named as they’re not authorized to speak to media. It’s a further setback for the OPEC state, whose production has sunk below 1 million barrels a day. Libya in late December suspended crude exports from its western Zawiya and Mellitah ports after militias halted the country’s biggest oil field, Sharara. Daily crude exports in the first week of this year were 45% below the December average, data compiled by Bloomberg show. The only crude-oil port that’s still open is Brega, while Libya’s two offshore terminals -- Bouri and Farwah, which is served by the Al Jurf field -- are also operating. However, the three working export facilities are Libya’s smallest and usually responsible for only a quarter of the nation’s exports combined. Libya is now pumping around 900,000 barrels a day, roughly 350,000 a day less than a month ago, even after repairs were completed on a major pipeline in the east. If protracted, the current disruptions could undermine last year’s nascent oil-industry recovery, when production averaged 1.2 million barrels a day. Several key oil deposits continue to be closed by the Petroleum Facilities Guard, which is meant to protect fields but in recent years has carried out blockades to press demands. The PFG last month shut Sharara and other smaller western fields in a dispute over delayed salary payments. In theory, barrels can still be pumped to export facilities, although that depends how much oil is in storage. The closures come as political tensions rise. A presidential election was meant to be held on Dec. 24, but was delayed as disputes over the eligibility of candidates threaten to sow fresh turmoil in a country that’s been in conflict or civil war for much of the past decade.

OPEC targeting oil prices below $100, Oman’s oil minister says --OPEC and its allies don’t want crude prices to climb to $100 a barrel, and are reviving production quickly enough to prevent global markets from “overheating,” Oman’s oil minister said. The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies, a 23-nation group led by Saudi Arabia and Russia, continues to restore output halted during the pandemic at a gradual pace of 400,000 barrels a day -- though in practice its increases have been restricted by internal unrest and depressed budgets. Crude prices have rallied this year, topping $80 a barrel in London. “We’re very careful at OPEC+, we will look at each month as we go,” Omani Oil Minister Mohammed Al Rumhi said in an interview in Riyadh. “But so far, I think 400,000 is good because demand is increasing and we want to make sure that the market is not overheating. We don’t want to see $100 a barrel. The world is not ready for that.” Oil’s rally has alarmed many consuming nations as it stokes inflationary pressure that’s menacing the world’s economic recovery from the pandemic. Part of the problem has been a crunch in global production capacity following a run of reduced spending, Al Rumhi said. Over the past five years “investments have been limited in the industry and we’re paying the price for it now,” Al Rumhi said. It’s an issue afflicting OPEC+ themselves. OPEC made only part of its planned output increase last month as Nigeria and Libya were beset by disruptions. Many members of the wider coalition -- such as Angola and Malaysia -- are also seeing production falter because of diminished investment. Even Russia struggled to boost volumes last month. Separately, Oman is planning its first ever international bidding round for minerals, with companies from Japan and the U.K. having shown interest in investing in silicone extraction.

Oil bulls increasingly confident as Omicron risk fades: Kemp - (Reuters) - Oil markets attracted a new wave of interest from investors at the end of 2021 and start of 2022, as the threat of widespread economic and aviation disruption from Omicron seemed to recede. Hedge funds and other money managers purchased the equivalent of 31 million barrels in the six most important petroleum-related futures and options contracts in the week to Jan. 4. Portfolio managers have purchased a total of 102 million barrels in the three most recent weeks, after selling 327 million barrels in the previous 10 weeks (https://tmsnrt.rs/3f5QZ5B). In the most recent week, most of the buying came from the creation of new bullish long positions (+27 million barrels) rather than closure of old bearish short ones (-5 million). Bullish long positions now outnumber bearish short ones by a ratio of 5.18:1 (in the 67th percentile for all weeks since 2013) up from 3.83:1 (47th percentile) on Dec. 14. Last week's buying was broadly based, with purchases in Brent (+19 million barrels), U.S. gasoline (+7 million), U.S. diesel (+4 million) and European gas oil (+3 million), with sales only in NYMEX and ICE WTI (-2 million). The number of confirmed coronavirus infections per day worldwide has almost quadrupled to 308 per million in the seven days ending on Jan. 10 up from 78 per million on the seven days ending Dec. 14. But the link between confirmed cases, hospitalisations and deaths appears to have weakened, with the result many governments are imposing more limited restrictions on business activity and travel than in previous waves. The more limited response to this latest wave of the pandemic has encouraged bulls in their view that the impact on oil consumption will be relatively limited and short duration. As the current wave of infections fades in the spring, the continued cyclical upturn in the global economy is expected to result in further growth in oil consumption from the second quarter onwards. Coupled with limited production growth from OPEC, its allies, and U.S. shale producers, global petroleum inventories are likely to tighten further by the end of 2022. Hedge fund oil buyers are anticipating, accelerating and amplifying the move to an even tighter market by the end of this year. In consequence, front-month Brent futures prices have rebounded to within $5 per barrel of their previous cyclical highs in October 2021 and October 2018, and the gap is even closer if inflation is taken into account. Brent's six-month calendar spread has tightened into a backwardation of around $3.80 per barrel (93rd percentile for all trading days since 1990) up from $1.54 (67th percentile) in the middle of December.

Oil Prices Rise Despite Covid Worries -Oil prices traded higher on Monday as supply disruptions in Kazakhstan and Libya offset worries stemming from a continued rise in Covid-19 cases worldwide. Benchmark Brent crude futures rose half a percent to $82.14 a barrel, while WTI crude futures were up half a percent at $79.32. The upward momentum in oil prices remained intact after three straight weeks of gains on the back of fading Omicron concerns and a tightening global stock situation amid escalating unrest in Kazakhstan and outages in Libya. Despite a steep rise in coronavirus positive cases around the world, investors are pinning hopes the Omicron variant of the coronavirus will not significantly impact global oil demand. Business and enterprises deemed critical to the supply of daily goods have resumed normal operation from the weekend in Xi'an, capital city of Northwest China's Shaanxi Province, after the latest Covid-19 resurgence was largely brought under control. India began administering the precautionary dose or the booster shot of coronavirus vaccine to health and frontline workers and immuno-compromised senior citizens, as new confirmed coronavirus infections rocketed to over 179,000 today, nearly an eightfold increase in a week. Caseloads in the U.S. remain at critically high levels while vaccine skeptics and others angered by Covid curbs have protested in Brussels, Prague and other European cities.

Oil prices fall on demand concerns and rising Libyan output (Reuters) -Oil prices fell Monday as concerns about demand fears stoked by the rapid global rise in Omicron coronavirus infections overtook concerns about oil supply reduction from Kazakhstan. Brent crude fell 88 cents, or 1.1%, to settle at $80.87 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude was down 67 cents, or 0.9%, at $78.23. In early trade, both contracts rose by about 50 cents. “Oil prices are following the stock market lower on Omicron fears,” World stocks stumbled again while the 10-year Treasury yield hit a two-year high as investors pared risky assets on bets the U.S. Federal Reserve could raise interest rates as soon as March. Concerns about the Omicron variant of the coronavirus bled into the oil market, pushing prices lower. Last week, oil prices gained 5% after protests in Kazakhstan disrupted train lines and hit production at the country’s Tengiz oilfield while pipeline maintenance in Libya lowered production to 729,000 barrels per day (bpd) from a high of 1.3 million bpd last year. Kazakhstan’s largest oil venture Tengizchevroil (TCO) is gradually increasing production to reach normal rates at the Tengiz field after protests limited output there in recent days, operator Chevron said on Sunday. Libyan production ticked up on Monday, and concerns about rising Libyan output overtook the market. Last week, oil found support from rising global demand and lower-than-expected supply additions from the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and allies including Russia, a group collectively known as OPEC+. OPEC’s output in December rose by 70,000 bpd from the previous month, versus the 253,000 bpd increase allowed under the OPEC+ supply deal. That deal restored output cut in 2020 when demand collapsed during COVID-19 lockdowns. The demand recovery and a sharp fall in oil inventories have pushed the market structure for Brent and U.S. crude into deep backwardation. A backwardated market structure means the current value is higher than it will be in later months and encourages traders to release oil from storage to sell it promptly.

Oil Futures Chase Equities Higher -- With U.S. dollar index rapidly weakening against foreign currencies, oil futures nearest delivery powered higher in early trade Tuesday as investors grapple with concerns over surging inflation across major economies compounded by an Omicron-led tsunami of coronavirus infections in the United States and European Union, while China is seeing an increase in cases despite Beijing's zero-tolerance policy and strict lockdown measures. Inflation in countries that are part of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development surged to a 26-year high 5.8% in November, according to OECD figures released Tuesday morning. Excluding food and energy, consumer prices were up 3.8%, contributing significantly to headline inflation in a number of economies. There were, however, large variations among the countries that are part of the economic bloc, with prices rising 6.8% in the United States, but only 0.6% in Japan. The fresh data came against a backdrop of increasing pressure on central banks to raise interest rates. Raphael Bostic, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, said on Monday that he sees three interest rates hikes in the United States this year, with the potential for the fourth towards the end of 2022 should inflation pressures remain high. Fueled by federal stimulus, supply chain disruptions, and a tight labor market, inflation in the United States still has room to accelerate in coming months before abating in the second half of the year, according to economists. Earlier this week, oil futures came under some selling pressure from easing concerns over available supplies in African producer Libya, where political turmoil disrupted a portion of oil production. Meanwhile, Bloomberg News reported that oil exports from Libya's major ports will likely remain subdued this week due to bad weather in the Mediterranean Sea. Separately, crude production from the Tengizchevroil venture operated by U.S. oil major Chevron in western Kazakhstan is "gradually returning to normal levels," the company said on Sunday after it adjusted output when nationwide protests reached the field. Before the protests, Kazakhstan produced around 1.6 million bpd of crude oil. Near 7:30 a.m. ET, front-month West Texas Intermediate futures rallied $1.19 to $79.41 per barrel (bbl), and the international benchmark Brent crude for March delivery gained to $81.97 bbl, up $1.09 on the session. NYMEX February RBOB futures advanced more than 3 cents to $2.3100 gallon, while the front-month ULSD contract added 2.31 cents to $2.5102 gallon.

 Oil prices surge as Fed chief’s comments less hawkish than expected--Oil jumped by the most in month after Jerome Powell’s comments to the Senate Banking Committee appeared to be less hawkish than the Federal Reserve had recently telegraphed. West Texas Intermediate crude rose, in tandem with equity markets, as much as 3.8%, to the highest since November 16. Markets were supported after the Federal Reserve Chair said at some point this year he and his colleagues will allow the Fed’s $8.77 trillion balance sheet to run off. Powell’s comments were a “a touch more dovish than what was implied in the recent minutes and suggested by other Fed speakers in the last few days,” said Vital Knowledge founder Adam Crisafulli. Oil has made a positive start to 2022 on expectations that demand will continue to expand as the pandemic’s impact on fuel consumption gradually eases, tightening the market. In the past few weeks, crude supplies from OPEC+ member nations Kazakhstan and Libya have been disrupted. Prices rose earlier in the session as traders focused on tightening supplies, with U.S. crude stockpiles forecast to decline for a seventh straight week. Analysts surveyed by Bloomberg estimate a crude stockpile decrease of 1.7 million barrels for last week, while the industry-funded American Petroleum Institute will release its report on inventories later Tuesday. “Storage has been down for weeks on end and as long as that continues, the market is going to continue to bid,”said Bob Yawger, director of the futures division at Mizuho Securities USA. “If stockpiles post a big draw, then we will be at the lowest level since 2018,” which would justify WTI trading between $75 and $85 a barrel, he added. Still, prices face headwinds from the omicron variant as cities worldwide consider tighter restrictions to curb the spread of the highly transmissible virus. In China, the largest crude importer, authorities have locked down a city of 5 million people, a day after detecting omicron in Henan province. The U.S. Energy Information Administration is set to publish its monthly oil-market outlook at 12 p.m. in Washington on Tuesday. Prices: WTI for February delivery advanced $2.79 to $81.02 a barrel at 11:54 a.m. in New York. Brent for March settlement gained $2.52 to $83.39 a barrel. Meanwhile, diesel markets in Europe and the U.S. are currently among the strongest oil-product sectors. Profits from turning crude into the fuel are at their highest since October in both regions as winter demand picks up, remaining relatively robust in the face of the omicron virus variant.

Oil Price Increases By 3% Amid Tighter Crude Supplies - Oil prices witnessed a 3 per cent increase on Tuesday on goals of tighter crude supplies. Experts believe that the rise may be related to expectations that the spread of the Omicron variant will not derail a global demand recovery.Consequently, the price of the Brent crude rose by $2.76 or 3.41 per cent to close at $83.63 per barrel, while the US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude rose by $3.10 or 3.96 per cent to trade at $81.33 per barrel.In the same vein, poor maintenance at export facilities drove the North African producer to shut in exports from the terminal, compounding weather-related woes which have made it hard for tankers to connect to loading facilities at the terminal.The announcement of new disruptions at Es Sider comes promptly after the El Feel field returned to production. The Petroleum Facilities Guard (PFG) had halted pipeline flows from the field in December 2021.This means that it won’t be able to add to supply additions by the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) which are running below the increase permitted under a pact with its allies.OPEC and its allies, OPEC+’s inability to ramp up production as quickly as it has agreed to is also lending support to crude oil prices.While the larger 23-man OPEC+ group has agreed to increase output at 400,000 barrels per day, it has been unable to achieve this volume in any month.Market analysts expect that US inventories data to show crude stockpiles fell by about 2 million barrels.

Oil at Fresh Highs Ahead of US Inventory - Nearby delivery oil futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange and Brent crude traded on the Intercontinental Exchange moved higher in early trade Wednesday, continuing Tuesday's rally on expectations for U.S. crude oil inventories to have declined for a sixth consecutive week through Jan. 7 and for global oil supply availability to tighten amid underproduction from several OPEC+ members. Meanwhile, risk-on trade in U.S. equity markets following testimony from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell before a Senate Banking Committee on Tuesday where he reassured lawmakers the economy no longer requires aggressive stimulus measures lent additional support for the oil complex. Powell told lawmakers during his Senate hearing Tuesday that he believes the central bank would be able to tame inflation without hindering the economy. He did not, however, suggest a more hawkish response to recent price increases, noting only that the central bank would be "humble but a bit nimble" in executing rate hikes this year. Powell's tone provided a boost to stocks on Tuesday, while pressing the U.S. dollar index to a 95.535 six-week low against its global peers that helped lift oil prices to their highest levels since the Omicron variant was first detected in late November. The American Petroleum Institute reported on Tuesday oil supplies declined 1.077 million barrels (bbl) during the week ended Jan. 7, below calls for draw of 2.1 million bbl. The report shows stocks at the Cushing, Oklahoma hub posted a drop of 3.659 million bbl. Gasoline stockpiles spiked 10.86 million bbl in the week profiled, more than five times estimates for a 2.3 million bbl build, said API. API data also showed distillate inventories rose 3.035 million bbl, above calls for an increase of 1.2 million bbl. DTN Refined Fuels Demand data showed that gasoline lifted at terminals across the United States increased just 0.7% from the previous week last week, bringing the seven-day moving average to just 4% above the January 2021 level. That marked a sharp decline from 15% above the year-ago level in late December. Weak demand data comes amid record number of COVID-19 hospitalization in the United States that are pushing several states toward emergency staffing as they struggle to cope. . Internationally, Kuwait has become the latest National Oil Company to cut its February crude official selling price for Asian refiners, following a similar move from Saudi Arabia last week. The state-owned Kuwait Petroleum Corp reduced the February price of its flagship Kuwait Export Crude to DME Oman/Platts Dubai to $1.80 bbl for Asian customers. Near 7:30 a.m. ET, front-month West Texas Intermediate futures gained $0.36 to $81.59 bbl, while ICE Brent crude for March delivery edged $0.24 higher to $83.93 bbl. NYMEX February RBOB futures traded near $2.3594 gallon, and the front-month ULSD contract advanced 1.81 cents to $2.5817 gallon

WTI Extends Gains After Crude Draw, Shrugs Off Plunging Gasoline Demand -Oil prices are extending gains this morning after last night's API-reported crude draw and some relief that CPI (while at 39 year highs) was not worse than expected (prompting even more tightening from The Fed). Equity market gains and a weak dollar are also helping fuel the rally in crude, while European inventories are rising (+4.5% last week according to Genscape) and China ordered some independent oil refiners to reduce crude processing ahead of the Winter Olympics, according to industry consultant JLC.Bloomberg Intelligence's Senior Energy Analyst Vince Piazza notes that "despite OPEC+’s pledge to increase production for January and next month, we believe the cartel will add less to the market than planned. Meanwhile, cold weather is disrupting oil production temporarily, while flights have been scrubbed because of frigid temperatures and due to rising cases of the Covid-19 omicron variant." For now all eyes are on the product builds and implied gasoline demand for some color on omicron's demand impact. API:

• Crude -1.1077mm (-1.85mm exp)
• Cushing -3.659mm
• Gasoline +10.86mm
• Distillates +3.035mm

DOE

• Crude -4.553mm (-1.85mm exp)
• Cushing -2.468mm - first draw in 2 months
• Gasoline +7.961mm
• Distillates +2.537mm

Crude inventories fell for the 7th straight week. Official data confirmed the first Cushing draw in two months, and after the prior week's massive surge in product inventories, gasoline stocks rose significantly once again... Flight cancellations and mobility restrictions may continue to weigh on short-term jet-fuel demand, which has yet to recover to pre-pandemic levels, even during year-end holidays. Total crude stockpiles, including both commercial and strategic inventories fell by 4.85 million barrels, with just 300,000 barrels taken from the SPR adding to the commercial draw of 4.55 million barrels. Total US Crude stocks fell to their lowest since October 2018... After crashing the previous week, gasoline demand continued to tumble last week...According to GasBuddy data, Tuesday US gasoline demand fell 3.8% from the prior Tuesday and was down 7.9% from the average of the last four Tuesdays. It's the lowest Tuesday demand since 5/18/21. Graphs Source: Bloomberg. Not good...

WTI Climbs to 2-Month High on Falling US Stocks, Sliding USD -- Nearby delivery oil futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange and Brent crude traded on the Intercontinental Exchange settled Wednesday's session higher, with the U.S. crude benchmark notching a 1.5% gain on the back of a larger-than-expected drawdown from U.S. commercial crude oil inventories that overshadowed another weekly build in gasoline supplies and a sharp contraction in fuel demand amid consumer pullback on travel. Mobility across the largest cities in the United States declined markedly over the past 12 days as an omicron-led surge in COVID-19 infections rippled through the country, prompting shutdowns of schools and employee absenteeism. Apple mobility data shows in cities like New York and Chicago, driving plunged by more than 40% since the emergence of the omicron variant in late November. Restaurant reservations across the United States remained in negative territory each day so far this year, averaging 28% below the pre-pandemic level. More than 145,900 people were in U.S. hospitals with COVID-19 as of Tuesday -- a number that surpasses the previous peak from mid-January 2021 and is almost twice what it was two weeks ago, according to data from the Department of Health and Human Services. Oil traders pay close attention to those developments as they directly correlate with gasoline demand in the United States. The Energy Information Administration reported Wednesday morning gasoline supplied to the U.S. market -- a measure of demand -- slumped to the lowest weekly rate since February 2021 at 7.9 million barrels per day (bpd), down 266,000 bpd from the previous week. As a result, gasoline stockpiles built by more than 8 million barrels (bbl) in the reviewed week after surging 10 million bbl in the final week of December. Offsetting bearish parts of the report, U.S. crude oil inventories declined for the sixth consecutive week through Jan. 7, down 4.6 million bbl to 413.3 million bbl and remain about 8% below the five-year average. Oil stored at Cushing, the delivery point for West Texas Intermediate, fell 2.5 million bbl from the previous week to 34.8 million bbl. A crude draw was realized even as domestic refineries processed fewer barrels last week, with utilization rates slipping to 88.4% of capacity. U.S. inflation surged to the highest point in 40 years over the 12 months ending December, according to data released Wednesday morning by the U.S. Labor Department.. The energy index, however, declined 0.4% in December, ending a long series of increases, as the indexes for gasoline and natural gas both decreased. On the session, front-month WTI futures rallied $1.42 or 1.87% to $82.64 bbl, while ICE Brent crude for March delivery advanced $0.95 to $84.67 bbl. NYMEX February RBOB futures gained to $2.3908 gallon, up 3.34 cents on the session, and the front-month ULSD contract advanced 3.08 cents to $2.5942 gallon.

Oil edges lower on profit taking, rate hike worries - Oil prices edged lower on Thursday as investors took profits after two days of gains amid fears of aggressive U.S. interest rate hikes, but the losses were cushioned by expectations that a strong economic recovery will boost demand. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures settled 52 cents, or 0.63%, lower at $82.12 per barrel, after rising 5.6% over the last 2 days. Brent crude futures settled 0.24% lower at $84.47 per barrel. It had gained 4.7% over Tuesday and Wednesday. "The U.S producer price inflation data came in easily as hot as the last month and could put pressure on the Fed to rein in the economy, potentially being a drag on crude prices and supporting the dollar," Oil prices typically move inversely to the U.S. dollar, with a stronger greenback making commodities more expensive for those holding other currencies. Some investors were taking a deeper look at data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) on Wednesday. While crude oil inventories fell more than expected, the report also showed fuel demand has taken a hit from Omicron. Gasoline stockpiles increased by 8 million barrels in the week to Jan. 7, compared with analyst expectations for a 2.4 million-barrel rise. "In reality, the weekly EIA report was less bullish than the headline number, as total crude oil inventories fell 4.8 million barrels but were more than offset by a stock build across refined products," The drop in crude inventories "might have been related to end-of-year tax issues on oil stocks onshore in Texas and Louisiana," the bank added. However, losses were limited by speculation that Omicron was not severe enough to derail a global demand recovery and cold weather in North America.

Crude Futures Drop Back From 2-Month Highs After 2-Day Rally (DTN) -- Oil futures nearest delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange and Brent crude traded on the Intercontinental Exchange settled Thursday's session mostly lower, sending the U.S. crude benchmark to just above $82 per barrel (bbl). Deepening evidence of omicron-led demand destruction in the domestic gasoline market along with mixed economic data in the United States overshadowed recent production shortfalls from several OPEC+ members. On the session, West Texas Intermediate futures for February delivery declined $0.52 to $82.12 per bbl, with the contract falling below $82 per bbl post-settlement, and ICE March Brent crude slipped to $84.47 per bbl, down $0.20 from Wednesday's settlement. NYMEX February RBOB futures softened 0.67 cent to $2.3841 gallon, and the front-month ULSD contract finished the session 1.43 cents higher at $2.6085 gallon, supported by still robust domestic demand for middle distillates. Thursday's mostly lower settlements were underpinned by growing concern over omicron's impact on fuel demand not only in the United States but also in the large economies of China and the European Union. Around 20 million people in China's northeastern coastal city of Dalian were placed under lockdown orders after a single individual arriving from the port of Tianjin contracted the omicron variant. Domestically, economic activity and mobility trends took a hard hit from the record-breaking surge in new COVID infections, with nationwide use of motor gasoline dropping last week to the lowest since February 2021. Commercial gasoline stockpiles built by more than 18 million bbl since Christmas. Further evidence of omicron's disruption to the economy could be found in the Federal Reserve's Beige Book released Wednesday afternoon, which showed an abrupt pullback in leisure travel, hotel occupancy and patronage at restaurants as the number of new COVID-19 cases grew rapidly in recent weeks. Against this backdrop, weekly unemployment claims in the United States unexpectedly increased during the week ended Jan. 8 to 230,000, up 23,000 from the previous week. The larger-than-expected increase in claim filings comes amid an Omicron-led spike in COVID-19 infections that has been sweeping through the country like wildfire in recent weeks, leading to widespread worker absenteeism and sick leaves. As of Wednesday, more than 145,900 people were in U.S. hospitals with COVID-19 -- a number that surpasses the previous peak from mid-January 2021 and is almost twice what it was two weeks ago, according to data from the Department of Health and Human Services.

Oil's bull run rolls on despite possible China reserves release - Oil futures settled higher on Friday, boosted by supply constraints and worries of a Russian attack on neighbouring Ukraine, pushing prices toward their fourth weekly gain despite sources saying China is set to release crude reserves around the Lunar New Year. Brent crude futures settled $1.59, or 1.9per cent, higher at a 2-1/2-month high of $86.06 a barrel, gaining 5.4per cent in the week. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude gained $1.70 , or 2.1per cent, to $83.82 per barrel, rising 6.3per cent in the week. Both Brent and U.S. futures entered overbought territory for the first time since late October. Flynn added that traders did not want to be short in the market as tensions mounted between Russia and Ukraine and ahead of a long U.S. weekend for the Martin Luther King Jr Day holiday, U.S. officials voiced fears on Friday that Russia was preparing to attack Ukraine if diplomacy failed. Russia, which has massed 100,000 troops on Ukraine's border, released pictures of its forces on the move. The dollar appeared headed toward its largest weekly fall in four months. A weaker dollar makes commodities more affordable for holders of other currencies. Several banks have forecast oil prices of $100 a barrel this year, with demand expected to outstrip supply, not least as capacity constraints among OPEC+ countries come into focus. Libya's National Oil Corp Chairman Mustafa Sanallah said oil prices were "expected to continue to rise unless the market fundamentals change and global investment ... increases," adding that oil output from the country totalled 1.045 million barrels per day. Issues also remain unresolved in indirect talks between Iran and the United States on reviving the 2015 Iran nuclear deal, a source close to the talks said on Friday. If the United States lifts sanctions on Iran, the country could boost oil shipments, adding to global supply. Sources told Reuters China plans to release oil reserves around the Lunar New Year holidays between Jan. 31 and Feb. 6 as part of a plan coordinated by the United States with other major consumers to reduce global prices. The U.S. Energy Department on Thursday said it had sold 18 million barrels of strategic crude oil. U.S. oil rigs also rose 11 to 492 this week, their highest since April 2020. China posted its first annual decline in crude oil imports in two decades, though traders expect imports to recover this year. Fuel demand was pressured in the world's second-biggest oil consumer as the Omicron coronavirus variant spread. Many cities, including Beijing, have urged people not to travel during the Lunar New Year holiday.

WTI, Brent Futures Climb to 9-Week High as Omicron Fears Fade -- Oil futures nearest delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange and Brent crude traded on the Intercontinental Exchange settled Friday's session sharply higher, lifting both crude benchmarks as much as 2% higher. The gains came amid early signs that omicron infections are leveling off in U.S. cities where the new variant hit first, suggesting a national peak may be approaching, while broader commodities also got a lift from a weekly decline in the U.S. dollar. The wave of omicron cases in the United States that has disrupted everything from flights to schools over the past month is likely to fade fast in the coming weeks, according to some public health officials. Former Food and Drug Administration Commissioner Scott Gottlieb told reporters, "It's peaking right now. If you look at the epidemiology on the East Coast, certainly ... you're seeing cases come down week over week." Some of the most populous U.S. states, including New York, Florida and California saw a 10% decline in new COVID-19 cases over the past week. A University of Washington model suggests the number of daily reported cases in the United States will top out at 1.2 million by Jan. 19 and then fall sharply, "simply because everybody who could be infected will be infected," said Ali Mokdad, a professor of health metrics sciences at the university. Oil traders pay close attention to pandemic trends as they correlate very closely with gasoline demand in the United States. During the first week of January, gasoline supplied to the U.S. market plunged to the lowest rate since February 2021 at 7.9 million barrels per day (bpd) amid widespread worker absenteeism and shuttered schools. As a result, gasoline stockpiles built by more than 8 million barrels (bbl) in the reviewed week after surging 10 million bbl in the final week of December. Mobility across the largest cities in the United States declined markedly over the past 12 days as an omicron-led surge in COVID-19 infections rippled through the country, prompting shutdowns of schools and employee absenteeism. Apple mobility data shows that in cities like New York and Chicago driving plunged by more than 40% since the emergence of the Omicron variant in late November. Restaurant reservations across the United States remained in negative territory each day so far this year, averaging 28% below the pre-pandemic level.On the session, West Texas Intermediate futures for February delivery advanced $1.70 to $83.82 per bbl, and ICE March Brent crude crested over $86 per bbl, up $1.59 on the session. NYMEX February RBOB futures rallied 3.49 cents or 1.7% to $2.4190 gallon, and the front-month ULSD contract gained 2.58 cents to $2.6343 gallon. U.S. dollar index firmed to 95.150 at settlement following a three-session losing streak, reversing off a 94.610 nine-week low overnight after finding buying support at the 100-day moving average.

Kazakhstan denies US-funded bio-lab was seized by protesters - Kazakhstan denies military laboratory was seized by rioters after Russia claimed a possible pathogen leak occurred at controversial facility, as country's health ministry says more than 160 have been killed during protests in the country - Officials in Kazakhstan have denied that a controversial 'military biological laboratory' was seized in the recent unrest, which has so far claimed 160 lives since starting on January 2. It is not clear if the 164 deaths refer only to civilians or if law enforcement deaths are included, but the number - provided by the health ministry to state news channel Khabar-24 - are a significant rise from previous tallies. Kazakh authorities said earlier on Sunday that 16 police or national guard members had been killed.Russian media highlighted claims that the US-funded facility near Almaty was compromised, resulting in a possible leak of dangerous pathogens. The airport, mayor's office and secret services buildings fell briefly into the hands of rioters during a wave of protests backed by shadowy armed cells.The secret bio-laboratory funded by the US defence department - which has links to Russian and Chinese scientists - was also compromised in the disturbances, according to social media claims that it was seized.'This is not true. The facility is being guarded,' said the health ministry which is responsible for the Central Reference Laboratory, in Almaty.Official Russian news agency TASS had highlighted alleged social media reports that it was taken over by 'unidentified people' and 'specialists in chemical protection suits were working near the lab so a leak of dangerous pathogens could have occurred'.The laboratory's existence has been controversial and in 2020 the country formally denied that it was being used to make biological weapons.At the time, the Kazakh government stated: 'No biological weapons development is underway in Kazakhstan - and no research is conducted against any other states.' It was built in 2017 and is used for the study of outbreaks of particularly dangerous infections. Dangerous pathogens are stored here, it is reported.

Kazakhstan officials say 164 dead in protests, country now ‘stabilized’— Kazakhstan government officials said Sunday that government buildings and institutions in all regions were back under state control after days of violence and bloodshed amid sweeping anti-government protests.While an ongoing Internet blackout makes the situation on the ground difficult to verify, Interior Ministry officials claimed the country had “stabilized” — as a separate English-language message from a presidential aide slammed foreign media for creating what he called a “false impression that the Kazakhstan government has been targeting peaceful protesters.”The claims, apparently aimed at the international community, appear to be part of an effort to change the public narrative after President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev announced a shoot-to-kill order to security forces during a nationally televised address.They come as security officers in the country’s capital, Nur-Sultan, search door-to-door to root out what the city’s law enforcement chief called “violators of public order.” Almaty’s airport remains closed, and authorities have urged citizens to stay indoors.The government said Sunday that 164 people have died during the demonstrations, including 103 people in Almaty. Videos on social media showed people lining up at morgues to see whether their relatives were among the dead. Nearly 6,000 people have been detained, according to a Kazakh television report. The Interior Ministry has said that at least 16 law enforcement officers have been killed and more than 1,300 injured. U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said Sunday on ABC’s “This Week” that Tokayev’s shoot-to-kill order “is something I resolutely reject,” adding: “The shoot-to-kill order, to the extent it exists, is wrong and should be rescinded.”

Russia Lays Out Security Demands At NATO HQ Amid 'Live Fire' Exercises Near Ukraine - Coming off the initial day of talks between Russia and NATO wherein the US informed the Kremlin side that its central security demands are a "a non-starter", the continuing dialogue which moved to Brussels Wednesday began with little expectation for any breakthroughs.Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Alexander Grushko went to NATO headquarters in Brussels where he was received by NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg. Despite new Russian military live-fire exercises which took place near the border on Tuesday, the Kremlin has reiterated that there are no plans for any offensive on Ukraine. Speaking from Moscow, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov tried to assure the good faith nature of its engaging with NATO this week. "We are not negotiating from a position of strength; there is not, and nor can there be, any place for ultimatums here," he said as the talks in Brussels were initiated Wednesday. This amid continued accusations that its troop build-up is all about forcing NATO to the table and forcing leverage to protect Moscow's red lines. But he underscored that Russia must see that the West is taking its demands seriously and implementing positive action, according to Reuters. Also according to Reuters, the Russian side again emphasized its central request of no further NATO eastward expansion, which it's further seeking written security guarantees to ensure:Grushko, a former Russian ambassador to NATO, has said Russia wants to avoid confrontation. His direct colleague Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov - who held talks with the United States in Geneva but who was not in Brussels on Wednesday - has said Ukraine must never be allowed to join NATO.NATO has no immediate plans to admit Ukraine, but says Russia cannot dictate its relations with other sovereign states.NATO diplomats, meanwhile, have sought to present this week's talks as not a "negotiation" but as an initial "dialogue" and have said they would be deemed successful if they simply led to more open talks. This while calling the draft proposals submitted by Moscow thus far "unacceptable". The West is still sticking firmly by its charge that Moscow precipitated the current standoff and crisis over Ukraine, which has seen Washington prepare far-reaching sanctions in the event of any military offensive. Concerning Tuesday's drills, Moscow Times details: The Defense Ministry said 3,000 troops and 300 tanks and infantry fighting vehicles have been deployed across three western Russian regions bordering Ukraine and one bordering Belarus. The military’s Western Military District said the motorized rifle drills will involve T-72B3 main battle tanks and BMP-2 infantry fighting vehicles. The drills stretch across western Russia’s Voronezh, Belgorod, Bryansk and Smolensk regions.

NATO: We Won't Give Up "Right" To Station Troops In States Ringing Russia - As we detailed earlier, a Kremlin delegation led by Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Alexander Grushko went to NATO headquarters in Brussels on Wednesday where he was received by NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg. The meeting reportedly lasted four hours. "If Russia once again uses force against Ukraine and further invades Ukraine, then we have to seriously look into the need to further increase our presence in the eastern part of the alliance," Stoltenberg told reporters after Wednesday's meeting. While Stoltenberg reiterated what's at stake amid the 'Ukraine 2.0' crisis, highlighting "a real risk for a new armed conflict in Europe" - Russia has continued to assure the West it is not planning any kind of Ukraine invasion. At the same time, Deputy Secretary of State Wendy Sherman - who led Monday talks for the US in Geneva - condemned Russia's "unprovoked military buildup" near Ukraine. She also said that NATO poses no threat to Russia, and that Moscow should not see the Western military alliance as such. Below are key points made in the NATO Secretary-General's press conference just after meeting with the Russians... Stoltenberg says NATO is standing firmly by its "open door policy" - after Moscow has demanded that Brussels rescind its prior offer of a "path" for Ukraine and Georgia membership:

China's nuke carrier coup de grace in Taiwan Strait - China is on track to have at least four aircraft carriers by the mid-2020s, with its fourth one likely to be nuclear-powered. Work on China’s fourth carrier began in 2021, with China’s Central Military Commission studying a proposal by China State Shipbuilding Corporation (CSSC) to make it nuclear fuelled.Compared to their conventionally-powered counterparts, nuclear-powered carriers can stay at sea for much longer, carry twice the amount of aircraft fuel, 30% more weapons, and 300,000 cubic feet of additional space, which would otherwise be taken by air intakes and exhaust trunks. Nuclear power is also critical for power-intensive aircraft catapults, weapons, sensor and onboard computers.China has also been working on key technologies for its nuclear-powered carrier. In2019, China General Nuclear Power Group (CGN) invited bids for a contract to build a nuclear-powered vessel as an experimental platform to test marine nuclear propulsion. In 2018, China announced plans to build its own nuclear-powered icebreaker with Russian technical assistance.China is also working on Electromagnetic Aircraft Launch Systems (EMALS), which use a surge of electricity to generate a strong electromagnetic field to launch aircraft. It is reportedly easier to operate, gentler on airplanes and capable of launching more planes into the air in a shorter period than conventional steam catapults.The impetus for China’s nuclear-powered carrier program can be traced to 2018, when CSSC announced that such an asset would help the People’s Liberation Army–Navy (PLA-N) realize its strategic transformation and combat-readiness capability in deep waters and open oceans by 2025.Presently, China operates two conventionally-powered carriers, the Type 001 Liaoning, which was known as the ex-Soviet Varyag and commissioned in 2012, and the fully indigenous Type 002 Shandong, which was commissioned in 2017. A third conventional carrier, the Type 003, is currently under construction and likely to enter service in 2024.A Harvard Kennedy School Belfer Center analysis posits that China’s growing carrier force, alongside its developments in other military technologies, particularly anti-access/area-denial (A2/AD) capabilities, has raised the possibility of the US losing a limited war over Taiwan.

China stockpiling food at historically high levels -China is stockpiling food at historically high levels and now has more than half of the world's maize and other grains. By mid-2022, the country is estimated to hold 69% of the world’s corn reserves, 60% of rice, and 51% of wheat. At the end of 2021, NIKKEI Asia reported that China, with less than 20% of the world's population, has managed to stockpile more than half of the world's maize and other grains, leading to steep price increases across the planet and dropping more countries into famine.1 On January 5, 2022, Bloomberg reported that food prices have hit 10-year highs, causing worldwide concern.2 "Supply-chain bottlenecks, labor shortages, bad weather and a surge in consumer demand are among the factors responsible for the spike. So, too, is a lesser-known phenomenon: China is hoarding key commodities," Bloomberg's Adam Minter said. According to the U.S. Department of Agriculture, China will hold 69% of the world’s corn reserves, 60% of its rice, and 51% of its wheat by mid-2022. China is maintaining its food stockpiles at a 'historically high level,' said Qin Yuyun, head of grain reserves at the National Food and Strategic Reserves Administration. "Our wheat stockpiles can meet the demand for one and a half years. There is no problem whatsoever about the supply of food." The projections represent increases of around 20 percentage points over the past 10 years, and the data clearly shows that China continues to hoard grain.1 In 2005, China was importing food (not including beverages) for less than $10 billion USD. In 2010, the number rose to more than $20 billion USD and continued rising year-over-year until $80 billion USD in 2019 and nearly 100 billion in 2020, up to 4.6 times from a decade before. :

Tianjin fights China’s first real battle against Omicron, puts Beijing on high alert – North China’s Tianjin Municipality, home to 15 million people and also a major gateway to Beijing, started massive nucleic acid testing early Sunday morning, ramping up a swift response to the new Omicron variant after the city detected 20 COVID-19 infections in a single day, with two identified as carrying the new variant. Tianjin discovered two locally transmitted cases involving the Omicron variant, which were identified among individuals who volunteered to be tested Saturday. A further 18 cases were found in a follow-up tests of high-risk groups. The Tianjin municipal government said the two cases were part of the same transmission chain, but are not linked with the imported Omicron case detected in December, 2021 in the city. Among the 20 infected people, 15 are children aged between 8 and 13. A residential building in a compound in Jinnan was designated as high-risk of transmissions while three other residential buildings in this compound and two buildings in another compound are medium-risk. Tianjin on Sunday night required residents not leave the city unless necessary. Those who have to leave should have a negative nucleic acid test results valid in 48 hours and green health codes and seek approvals by their employers or communities. The city also strengthened checks on resident traveling to Beijing by setting check points and special channels at highways and transportation stations. To ensure public safety and containing Omicron from spreading further, residents in the city are required to remain in place and undergo nucleic acid testing. The city-wide testing began at 7 am on Sunday morning and is expected to complete within 24 hours, according to a notice from the city’s anti-epidemic command center. As of Saturday night, Tianjin had quarantined 75,680 people. Among 70 environment tests, 14 were positive and two were detected in elevators within residential buildings. The health code of residents who don’t receive a nucleic acid test within 24 hours will be changed to orange, which means the person is restricted from entering public places, including subway and buses. Residents who have been vaccinated within the last 48 hours will not participate in the test, the command center Based on the patients and viral transmission chain, the virus has spread across three generations among the newly confirmed 18 infections, suggesting the virus probably has circulated among the community for a certain period of time, Zhang Ying, a deputy director of the municipal health commission, said at a late press conference on Saturday night. More positive infections are expected to be uncovered, Zhang said. Affected by the flare-up, subway lines one and six will be partially closed starting from Sunday. Tianjin Binhai International Airport has cancelled 144 flights. Preparing for a potential lockdown, several Tianjin residents told the Global Times that people rushed to markets to snap up food. A resident surnamed Liu said that a supermarket near her home was full of people at 7 am on Sunday morning, with the queue stretching 200 meters. Tianjin’s bureau of commerce issued a notice on Sunday saying stock of rice, flour and edible oil in Tianjin are able to meet 30 days of demand. The Global Times learned that two biggest universities in Tianjin, Tianjin University and Nankai University, both with branches in Jinnan district, where the latest cases were mostly found, have imposed restrictions on leaving and entering of their campuses. Tianjin University notified students on Sunday that it has postponed final examinations until next semester. The Beijing Center for Disease Control and Prevention on Sunday suggested people in Beijing do not visit Tianjin and those in Tianjin refrain from travelling to the capital. Commuters between Tianjin and Beijing, estimated around 100,000 as of 2020, are encouraged to work from home. Anyone in Beijing who had visited Jinnan and Nankai districts of Tianjin since December 23, 2021 will be subject to home quarantine and be tested. Others who had travel history to Tianjin since the date mentioned above were asked to report to local community officials, employers and hotels immediately, the center said.

China Hands Out Jail Terms as Long as 4 Years for Virus Lapses – China has sent three people to prison for up to four-plus years over breaches of rules that led to a virus outbreak, in one of the harshest punishments for lapses in enforcing the government’s strict Covid-zero policy. The violations at a cargo company in Dalian, a port in the northeast, included failing to ensure employees wore masks, avoided visiting public venues after hours, and were properly quarantined and tested, the Global Times reported late Tuesday, oversights that allowed four people to infect 83 others.

Breakouts and lockdowns in Chinese cities make a risk-free Olympics look unlikely. -When China’s leader Xi Jinping inspected the Beijing Winter Olympics venues last week, he laid out his vision for a “green, safe and simple” event.But diplomatic boycotts and, increasingly, the fast-spreading Omicron variant of the coronavirus may make safety and simplicity near impossible to achieve, at least by Beijing’s stringent “zero Covid” standards.With less than a month to go until the opening of the Winter Games, Chinese officials are racing to extinguish a spate of coronavirus infections around the country, including several locally transmitted cases of the Omicron variant.On Monday, officials in Tianjin, a northern Chinese port city of 14 million, reported 21 domestically transmitted cases, according to China’s National Health Commission, bringing the total over the last two days to 40, including at least two cases of the Omicron variant.The situation has taken on heightened urgency in China given Tianjin’s proximity to Beijing. Many commuters travel daily between the two cities, often using high-speed rail, which takes about 30 minutes.In response to the threat of rising infection rates, Tianjin officials have quickly moved to enforce lockdowns in several affected neighborhoods. Widespread testing of the entire city was still underway on Monday. The authorities have also tightened travel restrictions into and out of Tianjin, requiring residents to obtain approval from employers or community officials before leaving. And starting Sunday afternoon, train tickets between Tianjin and Beijing were suspended for purchase.But there were worrying signs that the Omicron variant had already spread beyond Tianjin. The central Chinese city of Anyang, in Henan Province, reported two local Omicron infections on Monday, traced to a student who had traveled from Tianjin on Dec. 28, spurring concerns that the Omicron variant may have already been circulating in Tianjin for nearly two weeks.Millions of people in the Chinese cities of Xi’an and Yuzhou, in Henan Province, are also currently being confined to their homes following a recent surge in cases of the Delta variant. The outbreaks have concerned officials in Beijing, who are stepping up measures to ensure that the virus does not penetrate the capital city’s already substantial fortifications ahead of the Games. On Monday, the Beijing Center for Disease Control and Prevention called on residents who had traveled to areas with recent flare-ups to report themselves to the authorities. That would include anyone who has been in or passed through Tianjin since Dec. 9.

Nepal closes its schools as coronavirus cases surge. — Top education officials in Nepal decided on Monday to close the country’s schools until the end of January, as part of a package of measures meant to contain a coronavirus surge.Most schools in Nepal reopened in late September after closing intermittently earlier in the pandemic. Schools in cities like Kathmandu were able to offer remote instruction during closures, but many schools in the countryside could not — nor could many rural families take part even if it was offered.“No electricity. No internet. We cannot run online classes. Students will be deprived of education again,” said Aruna Budha Chhetri, an elementary-school teacher in Dailekh, a rural district.The repercussions of school closures in Nepal have been far-reaching, with reports of girls from poor families who could no longer attend school being forced into child marriages and boys leaving their interrupted schooling to earn money for their households.Even so, Ms. Budha Chhetri said she agreed with the decision to close schools for a while.“They will learn someday, if they survive the pandemic,” she said of her students.The country’s health infrastructure is fairly limited, and most school-age children are unvaccinated. Policymakers and parents are grappling with how to protect them from the virus with the least possible disruption to their studies.Reports of new coronavirus cases are soaring, and there are worries that recent political party meetings in Kathmandu have helped spread the virus to the most remote corners of the country. Former Prime Minister Pushpa Kamal Dahal is recovering after testing positive for the virus.Along with closing schools, officials have banned gatherings of more than 25 people and have introduced a requirement for proof of vaccination to access public services — a decision that immediately drew complaints on social media, since only about 37 percent of Nepal’s population of 30 million people is fully vaccinated.

In India, mask wearing is down, even as case numbers rise. - Health officials in India have reported an increasing number of people refusing to wear masks, despite rising case numbers fueled by the Omicron variant, with rule breakers’ excuses including seeing masks as a sign of weakness or as simply unhelpful in preventing infection.“When you hear people offer explanations like that, you want to bang your head against a wall,” said Manish Chakraborty, a health official in the state of West Bengal who is part of a team of officers who impose fines on people for skirting Covid rules.After the deadly wave of Covid caused by the Delta variant in India last year began to recede, mask wearing also declined. Crowded markets and tourist destinations again filled with people, mostly unmasked and not social distancing. Researchers say mask wearing in public in the country has fallen to the levels last seen in March.As coronavirus cases started increasing in urban centers, Prime Minister Narendra Modi told residents to be vigilant, and the chief minister of Delhi, Arvind Kejriwal, imposed a curfew, among other measures. But with the opening of election season a month off, both leaders have been seen campaigning in states that are going to the polls, holding rallies that packed in thousands of people, lots of them without masks.After many Indians took to social media to express their outrage at the apparent double standard, India’s top election body stepped in and banned public campaign rallies until Saturday.On Monday, the defense minister, Rajnath Singh, announced that he had tested positive for Covid. Mr. Singh, 70, who said on Twitterthat he had mild symptoms and was quarantining at home, had addressed a rally in the northern state of Uttarakhand on Thursday.Over the weekend, a lawyer who was traveling at night by car in eastern Delhi fired five shots from his pistol after a dispute with police officers who had stopped him because he was violating curfew. The officers also asked the lawyer why he was not wearing a mask, as he was not alone in the car.No one was hurt in the episode, but the police said that they had opened an investigation.Last week, the police in the western state of Gujarat arrested three men after they were caught violating Covid restrictions while hosting a birthday party for their pet dog.Siddesh Valvaikar, a volunteer who spent time between Christmas and New Year handing out masks to people on tourist-filled beaches in Goa, said that he often got a cold stare in return. “When we gave them masks, people just threw them away,” he said.

Modi indicates no lockdown even as COVID-19 tsunami rips through India - Though a massive surge of COVID-19 is ripping through the Indian population, threatening a devastating humanitarian crisis, Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has made clear there will be no nationwide lockdown to check the coronavirus pandemic. On January 9, the second day that India witnessed over100,000 daily cases since last June, Modi chaired a “high-level” meeting to “assess the COVID-19 pandemic situation in the country,” the Prime Minister's official website reported. The purpose of the meeting was to assure the financial oligarchy that there will not be a lockdown, which would affect their profits. Modi’s remarks at the meeting did not aim to devise a strategy to curb the pandemic, but to lull the population to sleep even as hundreds of thousands are infected each day. Modi attended the meeting along with Home Minister Amid Shah, Dr. Mansukh Mandaviya, Minister of Health and Family Welfare and Dr. V.K. Paul of the NITI Aayog think-tank. Modi “stressed the need to ensure adequate health infrastructure at the district level”; “usage of masks and physical distancing measures”; “implementation of home isolation for mild/asymptomatic cases and to disseminate factual information to the community at large”; “intensive containment and active surveillance should continue in clusters reporting higher cases,” and so on. All these officials are well aware, however, that such measures cannot currently be effectively implemented against a highly contagious airborne virus like the Omicron variant of COVID-19. If non-essential businesses and industries continue to function—forcing workers to travel to workplaces, send children to school, and use overcrowded public transport facilities—the virus will spread massively. However, they refuse to order a lockdown, the suspension of non-essential production, and investment to allow for distance learning for youth. The Modi government’s policies in relation the pandemic are nakedly based on prioritizing the profit interests of big business over human lives. A few weeks ago, on December 23, Modi and the same officials held another “high-level meeting,” supposedly to “review the status of COVID-19 and Omicron” and discuss public health measures. That day, daily COVID-19 cases stood at 7495 and seven-day average was 6768. When Modi held the second meeting on January 9, daily cases stood 159,632 (over 21 times higher), and the seven-day average of cases was 91,268. Such was the effectiveness of Modi's “high-level” meetings on the pandemic! By allowing COVID-19 to rip through an unprotected population, a politically criminal Indian ruling elite as a whole have already sacrificed masses of lives. Statisticians estimate that the death toll is between 3-5 million lives in India, though the official toll shows only 483,000. This was the tragic outcome of Modi government's murderous herd immunity policy. While costing millions of lives and causing untold suffering due to Long Covid, this policy also threw hundreds of millions into poverty, hunger, unemployment, and social misery. Allowing corporate elites to intensify the super-exploitation of millions of Indian workers in unprotected factories and offices, the Indian government has increasingly abandoned even the limited restrictions adopted after the pandemic wave of May 2021. At that time, India witnessed a shocking toll, recording 400,000 COVID-19 cases and over 4,000 deaths each day.

Duterte issues nationwide stay-at-home order for unvaccinated persons The President says local government officials can tap civilians to enforce the new policy – Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte has ordered local government officials to make sure unvaccinated persons don’t leave their homes except for essential activities. Acting Presidential Spokesperson and Cabinet Secretary Karlo Nograles confirmed that Duterte’s remarks on Thursday, January 6, are orders that will be enforced nationwide, regardless of the alert levels over an area. “It appears, in the President’s declaration last night, that the order is nationwide, and if we listen to the President, the instructions are for the barangay to appeal to unvaccinated residents,” said Nograles on Friday during a press briefing. Duterte’s exact words on Thursday were: “I’m now giving orders to the barangay captain to look for those persons who are not vaccinated and just would request them or order them, if you may, to stay put.” If an unvaccinated person refuses to heed the new rules, Duterte says local officials can “arrest” the person. Barangay captains can even tap civilians to enforce this stay-at-home order. “The barangay captain can also mobilize civilians and adopt them, give them the task officially, probably written and that converts their status from being a civilian… They now become agents of a person in authority,” said Duterte. More localities restrict movement of unvaccinated The presidential directive comes after Metro Manila mayors decided to restrict unvaccinated persons from leaving their homes except to get food, go to work, or get urgent medical care. National pandemic task force officials have also recommended that this Metro Manila policy be expanded nationwide. Some local governments in other parts of Luzon have begun restricting the movement of unvaccinated individuals.

World Bank downgrades global growth forecast - As the Omicron variant of COVID-19 rips through the world’s population, the World Bank has forecast slowing global growth for 2022 as well as the following year in its Global Economics Prospects report issued on Tuesday. While it was certainly not its intention, the report is an exposure of the claims by capitalist governments that no serious public health measures can be undertaken to eliminate the pandemic because they would be detrimental to the “economy.” In fact, as the figures in the report make clear, the policy of “let it rip” being pursued by virtually all governments is producing ever worsening economic conditions. No changes will be made, however, as the economy is completely subordinated to finance capital which opposes any measures that impede the accumulation of wealth in the hands of a rapacious oligarchy. The summary of the World Bank’s report on the state of the world economy reads like an indictment of the political and financial authorities responsible for economic policies. It notes that after growing by an estimated 5.5 percent in 2021, “global growth is expected to slow markedly to 4.1 percent in 2022, reflecting continued COVID-19 flare-ups, and slow even further in 2023.” The outcome could be worse because as the report notes: “Various downside risks cloud this outlook, including simultaneous Omicron-driven economic disruptions, further supply bottlenecks, a de-anchoring of inflation expectations, financial stress, climate-related disasters, and a weakening of long-term growth drivers.” It says that the global economy is set up to experience its sharpest slowdown after an initial rebound from a global recession since at least the 1970s. Growth will decline to 3.2 percent in 2023. In the advanced economies, the 2023 growth rate will fall to 2.3 percent as pent-up demand falls and fiscal policy support is withdrawn. The situation is worse in so-called developing countries. In his foreword, World Bank president David Malpass writes that spending in these economies surged to record levels during the crisis, “but many countries are now facing record levels of external and domestic debt.” Added to these debt-related risks, he continued, is the potential for higher interest rates as the advanced countries tighten their monetary policies. “With fiscal and monetary policy in uncharted territory, the implications for exchange rates, inflation, debt sustainability, and economic growth are unlikely to be favourable for developing countries.” This is a vast understatement. According to the report, annual output by 2023 in all the so-called emerging market and developing economies annual output is expected to remain below the pre-pandemic trend. With “downside risks dominating the outlook,” it is expected that on a per capita basis any global recovery is expected to “leave behind those in economies that experienced the deepest contractions in 2020. Half or more of the economies in East Asia and the Pacific, Latin America and the Caribbean, and the Middle East and North Africa, and two-fifths of the economies in Sub-Saharan Africa, will still be below their 2019 per capita GDP [gross domestic product] levels by 2023.” On the inflation front, the report expects prices to continue to rise, again hitting less developed countries. “Rising food prices will hit the poorest populations the hardest, increasing food insecurity and accentuating the pandemic’s impact on income inequality,” the report notes. The same also applies to the advanced countries as well where inflation in food and other basic commodities is escalating at levels not seen in four decades.

Remittances Soar to Record High in Latin America, Providing a Lifeline for Desperate Economies - Remittances are a vital source of income and foreign currency for many countries but are no substitute for home-grown development. Between January and November of 2021 Mexico received $46.83 billion in remittances — transfers of money by workers of Mexican descent largely in the US but also other countries to individuals in Mexico. It is a 27% increase on the same period of 2020, which itself was a record year for remittances. According to El Financiero, it’s the highest rate of increase in 18 years.The Bank of Mexico still hasn’t published the data for December 2021 but barring a sudden, sharp reversal, Mexico’s remittance haul for 2021 will surpass $50 billion for the first time ever. That’s after increasing by 11.4% to $40.6 billion in 2020, a year when the U.S. economy, where 98% of the remittances to Mexico originate, suffered its worst annual contraction since 1946.Mexico has registered 19 straight months of rising remittance inflows. Between January and November 2021, almost 124 million remittance payments were registered, 14.2% more than in the same period of 2020. Mexican migrant workers are not just sending money back home more often; they are sending larger amounts each time. The average remittance in the period was $378, 11% higher than in 2020. On Friday, Mexico’s President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador (AMLO) described the trend as a “blessing” for the country he leads: “It is the main source of income for Mexico. The data for December is an estimate, but I can tell you we have figures before the Bank of Mexico [releases its data] and we make a projection and it generally matches up, and we are calculating that by December… we will be at $51.63 billion… the equivalent of eight thousand pesos a month for 10 million families.”Mexico is not the only Latin American country to have seen a sharp rise in remittance flows in 2021. According to the World Bank’s latest projections, published in November, Latin America and the Caribbean would receive a record remittance haul of $126 billion dollars in 2021, which would represent an increase of 21.6% on 2020. Mexico would account for just over 40% of the total. In most parts of the world, remittances increased in 2021. Though the full data for the year is not yet available, the World Bank estimates that remittances to low- and middle-income countries grew by 7.3% in 2021, to reach a record $589 billion:For a second consecutive year, remittance flows to low- and middle-income countries (excluding China) are expected to surpass the sum of foreign direct investment (FDI) and overseas development assistance (ODA). This underscores the importance of remittances in providing a critical lifeline by supporting household spending on essential items such as food, health, and education during periods of economic hardship in migrants’ countries of origin. The bank expected remittances to grow by 9.7% in the Middle East and North Africa, 8% in South Asia, 6.2% in Sub-Saharan Africa and 5.3% in Europe and Central Asia. The only region where remittances were forecast to fall in 2021 was the Asia Pacific.

The president of Mexico contracts Covid for a second time in less than a year. - Andrés Manuel López Obrador, the president of Mexico, announced on Monday that he has Covid-19, his second bout with the virus in less than a year.In a post on Twitter on Monday evening, he said that his symptoms were mild, and that he would work virtually while he isolated. President López Obrador’s infection comes almost a year after he announced testing positive for the coronavirus on Jan. 24, 2021.At a news conference on Monday morning, President López Obrador admitted that he sounded hoarse, and said that he would later seek a coronavirus test.“I think it is a cold,” he said. President López Obrador, 68, is fully vaccinated and received a booster shot on Dec. 7 at a news conference along with some members of his cabinet.At the nearly two-hour-long news conference on Monday, President López Obrador said that those in Mexico with symptoms similar to Covid should assume it is the virus and isolate at home, rather than seek a test. The president also said that the Omicron variant is “a little Covid,” adding that hospitalizations and deaths across Mexico have not risen sharply.Coronavirus infections have risen in Mexico over the past two weeks, with an increase in cases of 644 percent through Sunday, according to a New York Times database. President López Obrador is not the first head of state to be reinfected with the coronavirus. Andrzej Duda, the president of Poland, and Arif Alvi, the president of Pakistan, each announced last week that they had tested positive for a second time.

More protests roil German cities as vaccine rules tighten across much of Europe. Tens of thousands of protesters in cities across Germany demonstrated again on Monday to vent their anger at the country’s pandemic restrictions, as reports of rising coronavirus cases worsen frictions between public health officials in Europe and their fatigued and frustrated populations.The turnout for the protests appeared to be smaller in some cities than on previous Mondays, but it was not clear whether that signaled any waning of anger or had more to do with the demonstrations spreading to more days of the week.The new German government’s postponement of a parliamentary debate on a proposed national vaccine mandate, a flash point for many protesters, may also have sapped some urgency from the protests, at least for now.In Rostock, a large port city on the Baltic coast, officers used tear gas to keep a rowdy group of protesters from breaking a police line. But in general, the protests on Monday appeared to come off without violence.Developments in two nations where cases are rising fast — they have nearly doubled in Germany and more than quadrupled in Italy over the past two weeks — encapsulate the tensions in many European countries where leaders are doubling down on Covid-19 vaccinations and boosters, edging closer to making them all but mandatory.Almost seven out of 10 people in the European Union have been fully vaccinated, according to official data, and the figures are even higher in Italy (75 percent) and Germany (72 percent).The authorized vaccines, which have been shown to provide good protection against severe illness and death, are readily available in most of Europe, and governments have increasingly come to see people who still refuse to get vaccinated as an obstacle to their efforts to avoid imposing painful measures like lockdowns to rein in the highly transmissible Omicron variant.The challenge was expressed in harsh language last week by President Emmanuel Macron of France, who said in a newspaper interview that he wanted to “piss off” the millions of his compatriots who have declined the shots by barring them from public spaces. Thousands of protesters took to the streets in France on Saturday in opposition to proposals that would effectively ban unvaccinated people from public areas.Protesters also came out in large numbers in Vienna, where vaccination will be mandatory for all adults starting next month.In Germany, where the strident anti-vaccination movement has ties to far-right political groups, social restrictions and rules thatshut the unvaccinated out of much of public life have prompted large protests on Mondays — the same day of the week as the demonstrations that helped bring down the Berlin Wall in 1989Some protests have turned violent.Chancellor Olaf Scholz used a New Year’s speech to rebut misinformation that vaccines were unsafe. Some members of his coalition government worry about possible violence when lawmakers begin debating the bill to make vaccination mandatory.In Italy, where opposition to vaccines is less fierce, a rule took effect Monday requiring all workers who are 50 or older to be vaccinated or to show that they have recently recovered from an infection.Those who don’t meet the requirement by Feb. 1 could be suspended from their jobs. The measure is among the latest steps by the government of one of Europe’s worst-affected nations to curb a steep rise in infections and mitigate the impact on hospitals.

Italy hunkers down under fresh restrictions as new cases skyrocket. Cities in Italy appeared quiet on Monday morning as the latest restrictions to curb the rise of coronavirus infections took effect. People could no longer use public transportation without proof of either vaccination or a recovery after a positive test in the past six months, and all passengers were required to wear the more protective FFP2-type masks. Both private and public employees were encouraged to work remotely if possible, and banks, public offices, restaurants, bars, gyms and culture centers required customers to show a health pass to enter. “The metro ride this morning felt very different from the last few weeks,” said Maria Francesca Rotondaro, a communications specialist who commuted to her office in the city center from her home in the eastern part of Rome. “Everybody wore protective masks and sat at a distance,” she noted. “Before Christmas, it was a mess. Overcrowded buses, and passengers pushing as if it was 2019.” Italy recorded 101,762 new coronavirus cases on Monday, below the recent 7-day average of about 158,000 new cases a day but still several times higher than the average of two weeks earlier. Deaths rose 44 percent over the same period, to an average of 199 a day; the figure for Monday was 227. Simone Torvi, an accountant in Rome who often takes the subway, said that most riders seemed to be complying with the new rules. “I didn’t see anybody checking, but people did wear their masks, and I assume they had their passes,” he said. A spokesman for ATAC, the company that runs most of Rome’s public transportation, said that inspectors could ask passengers at random to show their health passes to help enforce the new measures. Officers caught one man on Monday riding a bus with no health pass and a less protective surgical mask near the Termini railway station. The rules applied to anyone 12 or older. Some unvaccinated students rode bicycles to school or were driven by their parents instead of using public transportation, while others simply stayed home, further lowering already reduced attendance. “Schools are decimated anyway,” said Mario Rusconi, president of the principal’s association in the region that includes Rome. “From 5 to 10 percent of teachers in Italy are home sick with Covid or quarantining; many parents of pupils in elementary schools chose not to send them until they are fully vaccinated.” Only 4 percent of children 5 to 12 years old are vaccinated in Italy, where they became eligible only last month. Mr. Rusconi was among the principals who asked the Italian Education Ministry to postpone reopening schools after the holiday break to allow more students to get vaccinated and to try and track infections among them. Still, the authorities decided to start classes on Monday everywhere in Italy except the Campania region in the south, where they will reopen Tuesday after a court voided the regional president’s order to keep them closed until February. Reports of doctors and nurses helping people get false health certificates keep springing up in the Italian news media. A nurse in Ancona was arrested on Monday and accused of helping produce about 45 fake passes by pretending to administer vaccine shots and then discarding them instead. Pope Francis, in an address to diplomats on Monday, called health care “a moral obligation” and spoke strongly in favor of getting as many people vaccinated as possible, saying it was “the most reasonable solution for the prevention of the disease.”

French teachers strike vs. COVID-19 policies With COVID-19 cases exploding across Europe, an international mass movement is building against government policies leading to massive infections in the schools. As French teachers mounted a nationwide strike against the disastrous handling of the COVID-19 pandemic yesterday, Italian students were preparing for a nationwide walkout today amid mass support for distance learning and opposition to studying in unsafe schools. The French teachers’ strike, organized around a statement criticizing “risky gambles on health” as the state “loosens testing and isolation measures,” obtained massive support. French teachers’ unions claimed 75 percent participation by primary school teachers and 62 percent by high school teachers in the strike, which shut down approximately half of schools in France. The remainder functioned with skeleton staffs. French riot police violently assaulted high school students who began the protest in a number of cities by blockading their schools when they normally would have opened. In Paris, they beat and tasered students outside Colbert high school, and kettled and searched students protesting outside Hélène Boucher high school, arresting two. Police also wounded one student, driving a police car through a crowd of protesting students outside a high school in Nantes. Marches began in the early afternoon, after general assembly meetings held in several schools under the auspices of trade union officials later in the morning. Teachers chanted “Their profits, our schools sacrificed,” shouted slogans against Education Minister Jean-Michel Blanquer, and sang songs from the 2018–2019 “yellow vest” protests against social inequality. Large marches took place in Marseille, Lyon, Toulouse, Bordeaux, Nice, Grenoble, Chambéry, and other cities, as well as in the capital, Paris. In Paris, candidates in the upcoming April presidential elections tried to walk at the head of the march: Socialist Party (PS) mayor of Paris Anne Hidalgo, Stalinist French Communist Party (PCF) deputy Fabien Roussel, and “left populist” candidate Jean-Luc Mélenchon. These parties have not organized any left-wing opposition to President Emmanuel Macron’s policies of mass infection, however. LFI in fact helped promote anti-vaccine protests this summer. Given their records, these candidates received a number of hostile comments from the crowd. ”

UK schools kept open as child infections soar above 3 million - Despite soaring COVID cases among children, teaching staff shortages and case numbers swamping the National Health Service since Omicron became dominant, the Johnson government is intent on keeping schools, nurseries and early years settings open. The sole consideration is keeping parents free to go to work and continue churning out profits for the corporations. On January 5, the horrific milestone of 3 million children (aged 0-19) being infected with COVID in England was reached. This is a substantial section of the 14.6 million total cases of COVID among all age groups recorded throughout the UK, including Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland, since the start of the pandemic. By January 8, the Long Covid Kids campaign group reported a record 30,220 daily cases of COVID child infections in England. On January 10, this had shot up to 40,343. Graph showing total child COVID cases in England reached 3 million in January 2022. The data is taken from the UK Health Security Agency dashboard (Credit: @jneill/Twitter) The murderous policy of herd immunity has led officially to over 150,000 deaths in Britain, including 128 child COVID fatalities. Plans to reduce quarantining to five days, end free lateral flow testing, and confine vaccination to the most vulnerable will worsen the catastrophe. The highest infection increases are now among the youngest and least protected—primary school children (4-11), who remain unvaccinated, and young adults. According to Long Covid Kids, there were 1,969 UK child hospital admissions in December. For six months in a row, child hospital admissions exceeded 1,000. In England, 84 children were hospitalised with COVID on Christmas Day. Over the 12 days of Christmas, a horrifying 1,294 children were admitted to hospital with COVID. Official data for January 1-6 shows child COVID admissions represent over 6 percent of all COVID new admissions, or 747 out of a total 12,202 total hospitalisations in England. Omicron affects the 0-5 age group more than previous variants. This appears to be the case because Omicron replicates in the upper respiratory airways rather than the lungs, unlike the Delta variant, and infants are particularly susceptible to infections in the upper respiratory tract. Long Covid Kids reported that hospital admissions in London for the under-fives leapt five times higher in a month. During the pandemic, case rates for 0-5 and 6-17 age ranges were even. According to official data compiled by SafeEdforAll (Safe Education for All) member @TigressEllie, from December 1-12 there were 20 COVID hospital admissions among those 0-5. This shot up to 94 when Omicron took hold. Omicron was first detected in Britain on November 27. While secondary school children aged 12-15 are being offered the vaccine, though roll out is pitifully slow, the government decided against vaccinating 5-11-year-olds unless clinically vulnerable. Since Omicron, secondary school children are required to wear masks in classrooms but not are not being supplied with masks such as FFP3s that afford protection against airborne transmission—and not in communal areas. Secondary teachers are required to wear masks in classrooms, but government guidance advises that teachers not wear them when they are teaching in front of class. The situation is more dire in primary schools—no masks for anyone, no vaccines, no mitigation measures at all.

World's largest condom maker says sales slumped precipitously in pandemic -Condom sales declined precipitously during the pandemic, the world's largest manufacturer of the contraceptive, which saw sales falling as much as 40% in the past two years, told Nikkei.While one could assume that people would have nothing to do "but have sex" indoors because of movement restrictions, that didn't appear to be the situation, Goh Miah Kiat, Karex's CEO, told the media outlet.The Malaysian contraceptive company produces about 5.5 billion condoms a year and is a supplier to brands such as Durex and ONE Condoms. It also produces its own condom brands.Karex assumed at the start of the pandemic that condom demand would surge as people cooped up at home used birth control because of economic uncertainty, Bloomberg reported in March 2020, citing Goh. At the time, Goh also predicted a condom shortage because of pandemic-fueled factory shutdowns.Instead, condom demand slumped, not only for Karex but also for others, including Durex and Trojan, as lockdowns hit social life.Goh told Nikkei that condom demand fell when hotels and motels closed as these locations had provided privacy. The sex industry, too, was affected by the health crisis, with in-person sex providers facing a challenging market.