Fed Warns “Soon To Be Appropriate” To Raise Rates, QE Ends In March - Since the last FOMC meeting, on December 15th, Gold is the lone asset-class that is higher while bonds and stocks have been monkey-hammered and the dollar is weaker... Graphics Source: Bloomberg All US equity markets are lower since the last Fed meeting with Tech/hyper-growth hammered and all the bubble-markets blowing up. Financial Conditions have tightened significantly since the last Fed meeting (after easing dramatically into the Santa Claus rally)... Rate-hike expectations have soared since the last Fed meeting too with March now fully priced-in and more than 4 hikes priced in by year-end. The last few days of market weakness prompted a dovish drop in rate-hike odds, but the last two days have seen it shift hawkishly once again... And before we get to The Fed's decision, there is also this chart to consider... President Biden's approval rating has crashed below that of Trump's... Source: Bloomberg We suspect the politicians will learn that lack of jobs is way worse for being reelected than inflation... and indirectly pressure The Fed (if they haven't already) to walk-back the QT and rate-hike trajectory plans... at least until after November maybe. The market is pricing-in liftoff in March (followed immediately by QT) and four rate-hikes by year-end (just like The Fed's "Dots") - did Powell and his pals jawbone any of that hawkishly or dovishly today? In a word: NO.
- The Fed says it "will soon be appropriate" to raise funds rate.
- The Fed says asset-purchases will end in March...And The Fed says that balance-sheet-shrinking (QT) will start after rate-hikes commence.
- The Fed intends primarily to hold Treasuries in the longer run.
- Finally, The Fed believes, "overall financial conditions remain as follows: […]
FOMC Statement: End Asset Purchases in Early March, "Soon appropriate" to Raise Rates - Fed Chair Powell press conference video here starting at 2:30 PM ET. FOMC Statement:Indicators of economic activity and employment have continued to strengthen. The sectors most adversely affected by the pandemic have improved in recent months but are being affected by the recent sharp rise in COVID-19 cases. Job gains have been solid in recent months, and the unemployment rate has declined substantially. Supply and demand imbalances related to the pandemic and the reopening of the economy have continued to contribute to elevated levels of inflation. Overall financial conditions remain accommodative, in part reflecting policy measures to support the economy and the flow of credit to U.S. households and businesses.The path of the economy continues to depend on the course of the virus. Progress on vaccinations and an easing of supply constraints are expected to support continued gains in economic activity and employment as well as a reduction in inflation. Risks to the economic outlook remain, including from new variants of the virus.The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2 percent over the longer run. In support of these goals, the Committee decided to keep the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent. With inflation well above 2 percent and a strong labor market, the Committee expects it will soon be appropriate to raise the target range for the federal funds rate. The Committee decided to continue to reduce the monthly pace of its net asset purchases, bringing them to an end in early March. Beginning in February, the Committee will increase its holdings of Treasury securities by at least $20 billion per month and of agency mortgage‑backed securities by at least $10 billion per month. The Federal Reserve's ongoing purchases and holdings of securities will continue to foster smooth market functioning and accommodative financial conditions, thereby supporting the flow of credit to households and businesses. In assessing the appropriate stance of monetary policy, the Committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook. The Committee would be prepared to adjust the stance of monetary policy as appropriate if risks emerge that could impede the attainment of the Committee's goals. The Committee's assessments will take into account a wide range of information, including readings on public health, labor market conditions, inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and financial and international developments.
Powell backs March liftoff, won't rule out hike every meeting - Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said the central bank was ready to raise interest rates in March and didn’t rule out moving at every meeting to tackle the highest inflation in a generation. “The committee is of a mind to raise the Fed funds rate at the March meeting” if conditions are there to do so, Powell told a virtual press conference on Wednesday, while noting that officials have not made any decisions about the path of policy because it needs to be “nimble.” He was speaking after the Federal Open Market Committee concluded its two-day meeting with a statement that declared “it will soon be appropriate to raise the target range for the federal funds rate,” citing inflation well above its 2% target and a strong job market.
Chicago Fed: "Index suggests economic growth declined in December" "Index suggests economic growth declined in December." This is the headline for this morning's release of the Chicago Fed's National Activity Index, and here is the opening paragraph from the report: Led by declines in production-related indicators, the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) fell to –0.15 in December from +0.44 in November. Two of the four broad categories of indicators used to construct the index made negative contributions in December, and all four categories deteriorated from November. The index’s three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, moved down to +0.33 in December from +0.40 in November. [Download report] The Chicago Fed's National Activity Index (CFNAI) is a monthly indicator designed to gauge overall economic activity and related inflationary pressure. It is a composite of 85 monthly indicators as explained in this background PDF file on the Chicago Fed's website. The index is constructed so a zero value for the index indicates that the national economy is expanding at its historical trend rate of growth. Negative values indicate below-average growth, and positive values indicate above-average growth. The first chart below shows the recent behavior of the index since 2007. The red dots show the indicator itself, which is quite noisy, together with the 3-month moving average (CFNAI-MA3), which is more useful as an indicator of the actual trend for coincident economic activity.
Toomey questions geographic, industry diversity of Biden’s Fed picks -- The top Republican on the Senate Banking panel questioned the geographic and professional backgrounds of President Biden’s Federal Reserve picks amid a brewing conflict over diversity at the central bank and its role in dealing with climate change. Pennsylvania Sen. Pat Toomey said he’s “particularly concerned” about the lack of industry representation, especially from the energy sector, citing vice chair of supervision nominee Sarah Bloom Raskin’s advocacy for the Fed to act on climate risks. “While a lack of expertise at the Federal Reserve Board in any particular industry is inevitable, the demonstrated hostility of one nominee, Sarah Bloom Raskin, towards a sector that supports employment for millions of Americans, is unacceptable,” the Pennsylvania Republican wrote.
BEA: Real GDP increased at 6.9% Annualized Rate in Q4 --From the BEA: Gross Domestic Product, Fourth Quarter and Year 2021 (Advance Estimate)Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 6.9 percent in the fourth quarter of 2021, according to the "advance" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the third quarter, real GDP increased 2.3 percent....The increase in real GDP primarily reflected increases in private inventory investment, exports, personal consumption expenditures (PCE), and nonresidential fixed investment that were partly offset by decreases in both federal and state and local government spending. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, increased.The advance Q43 GDP report, with 6.9% annualized growth, was above expectations.
GDP almost back to potential - The Bureau of Economic Analysis announced today that seasonally adjusted U.S. real GDP grew at a 6.9% annual rate in the fourth quarter, more than twice the average growth rate the U.S. has seen since World War II. Real GDP growth at an annual rate, 1947:Q2-2021:Q4, with the historical average (3.1%) in blue. Calculated as 400 times the difference in the natural log of GDP from the previous quarter. The new data put the Econbrowser recession indicator index at 1.2%, historically a very low value and signalling an unambiguous continuation of the economic expansion. The number posted today (1.2%) is an assessment of the situation of the economy in the previous quarter (namely 2021:Q3). We use the one-quarter lag to allow for data revisions and to gain better precision. This index provides the basis for an automatic procedure that we have been implementing for 15 years for assigning dates for the first and last quarters of economic recessions. As we announced a year ago, the COVID recession ended in the second quarter of 2020. The NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee subsequently made the same announcement in July.GDP-based recession indicator index. The plotted value for each date is based solely on the GDP numbers that were publicly available as of one quarter after the indicated date, with 2021:Q3 the last date shown on the graph. Shaded regions represent the NBER’s dates for recessions, which dates were not used in any way in constructing the index.This puts the level of GDP 3% higher than it was at the end of 2019 before the recession. Since then we’ve seen some growth of the population and capital stock along with improvements in technology, so we’d hope to do more than just get back to where we were in 2019. According to the Congressional Budget Office estimate of potential GDP, we’re still half a percent below where we’d expect to be based on long-run factors if there had been no recession. But we’re getting there. 100 times the natural logarithm of the level of real GDP, 1990:Q1 to 2021:Q4, normalized at 2019:Q4 = 100. A movement on the vertical axis of 1 unit corresponds to a 1% change in the level of real GDP. Blue line marks level of GDP in 2019:Q4, and green is CBO estimate of potential GDP. Increases in inventories accounted for more than 2/3 of the quarter’s growth in GDP. Under some circumstances that could be a bad sign, if consumers and businesses had stopped buying and unsold goods were piling up on shelves. But that’s not what’s going on right now. Supply disruptions associated with COVID-19 brought inventories of many items like automobiles well below normal. The inventory rebuild is an expected result as we start to solve some of those problems on the supply side and is a positive indicator of real growth. And I think there is more to come. Problems with chip supplies have still been holding auto inventories back from where they hopefully soon will be. When that happens, it would bring another boost to future GDP growth.Nominal inventory investment, quoted at a quarterly rate, 2012:Q1-2021:Q4. Red line: Change in dollar value of all private inventories. Blue line: change in dollar value of inventories of dealers of motor vehicles and parts.It’s also surprising that we haven’t seen more of a boost to new home construction (“residential fixed investment” in turquoise on the previous graph) with the real estate market as hot as it’s been. Supply issues may have played some role in holding housing construction back as well.Bottom line: we can expect faster-than-normal growth to continue even as GDP starts to move above the CBO estimate of potential.A Few Comments on Q4 GDP and Investment - Earlier from the BEA: Gross Domestic Product, Fourth Quarter and Year 2021 (Advance Estimate) Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 6.9 percent in the fourth quarter of 2021, according to the "advance" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the third quarter, real GDP increased 2.3 percent.... The increase in real GDP primarily reflected increases in private inventory investment, exports, personal consumption expenditures (PCE), and nonresidential fixed investment that were partly offset by decreases in both federal and state and local government spending. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, increased. On a Q4-over-Q4 basis, GDP was up 5.5%. An annual basis, GDP was up 5.7% in 2021 from 2020.The advance Q4 GDP report, at 6.9% annualized, was above expectations, primarily due to a strong increase in inventories.Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased at a 3.3% annualized rate in Q4.The graph below shows the contribution to GDP from residential investment, equipment and software, and nonresidential structures (3 quarter trailing average). This is important to follow because residential investment tends to lead the economy, equipment and software is generally coincident, and nonresidential structure investment trails the economy.In the graph, red is residential, green is equipment and software, and blue is investment in non-residential structures. So, the usual pattern - both into and out of recessions is - red, green, blue.Of course - with the sudden economic stop due to COVID-19 - the usual pattern didn't apply.The dashed gray line is the contribution from the change in private inventories. Residential investment (RI) decreased at a 0.8% annual rate in Q4. Equipment investment increased at a 0.8% annual rate, and investment in non-residential structures decreased at a 11.4% annual rate. The contribution to Q4 GDP from investment in private inventories was 4.90 percentage points.On a 3-quarter trailing average basis, RI (red) is down, equipment (green) is up, and nonresidential structures (blue) is still down..The second graph shows residential investment as a percent of GDP.Residential Investment as a percent of GDP decreased in Q4. Note: Residential investment (RI) includes new single-family structures, multifamily structures, home improvement, broker's commissions, and a few minor categories.
The third graph shows non-residential investment in structures, equipment and "intellectual property products". Investment in non-residential structures declined in Q4 as a percent GDP but might pick up in 2022.
Six High Frequency Indicators for the Economy - These indicators are mostly for travel and entertainment. There is a clear negative impact from the omicron variant of COVID. The TSA is providing daily travel numbers. This data is as of January 23rd. This data shows the 7-day average of daily total traveler throughput from the TSA for 2019 (Light Blue), 2020 (Black), 2021 (Blue) and 2021 (Red). The 7-day average is down 24.7% from the same day in 2019 (75.3% of 2019). (Dashed line) Air travel had been off about 20% relative to 2019 for most of the second half of 2021 (with some ups and downs) - but picked up over the Thanksgiving and Christmas holidays (solid leisure travel) - and has declined in early 2022 (weak business travel). The second graph shows the 7-day average of the year-over-year change in diners as tabulated by OpenTable for the US and several selected cities. This data is updated through January 22, 2022. Dining was mostly moving sideways, but there has been some decline recently, probably due to the winter wave of COVID. The 7-day average for the US is down 25% compared to 2019. This data shows domestic box office for each week and the median for the years 2016 through 2019 (dashed light blue). The data is from BoxOfficeMojo through January 13th. Movie ticket sales were at $100 million last week, down about 49% from the median for the week. This graph shows the seasonal pattern for the hotel occupancy rate using the four-week average. This data is through January 15th. The occupancy rate was down 16.3% compared to the same week in 2019. The 4-week average of the occupancy rate will increase seasonally over the next few months. The key question is: How much business travel will return? This graph is from Apple mobility. This data is through January 21st for the United States and several selected cities. According to the Apple data directions requests, public transit in the 7-day average for the US is at 90% of the January 2020 level. Here is some interesting data on New York subway usage. Manhattan is at about 28% of normal. This data is through Friday,January 21st.
Content Analysis of Secretary Blinken at Geneva Reveals Psychopathological Incapacity to Negotiate with Russia - US Secretary of State Antony Blinken revealed publicly in Geneva on Friday, January 21, that he will not negotiate a no-war agreement with the Russians because he cannot. This is already understood by the Russians; by the French and Germans; and by several senior officials of the Biden Administration. The evidence of Blinken’s incapacity is in the words he says. It was during the last world war, when US policymakers had next to no intelligence on how their German counterparts were thinking and what they were intending, that a group of American sociologists were engaged by the War Department, as the Pentagon was called then, to do what was called content analysis of German propaganda. One of the sociologists, a Russian émigré Nathan Leites, went on to apply the same method to Soviet publications in order to uncover what Leites called the operational code of the Politburo. That was in 1951. It was immediately used by US negotiators during the Korean War armistice negotiations which began in July of that year and ran for two years. Since then the method has not been used on US Government officials, at least not by RAND nor publicly by any American sociologist. When the RAND method is used to analyze what Blinken told the US press, following his meeting with Russian foreign minister Sergei Lavrov, it is revealed that Blinken has no intention whatever of negotiating a non-aggression pact with the Russians on any terms. According to the scientific method devised by the best and brightest Americans for dealing with their enemies, it’s now clear from Blinken’s own words that he is unable to understand what Russians tell him. In the mind behind the words there is only one compulsive idea – attack, punish, destroy Russia. The State Department has published the transcript of Blinken’s statement and answers to questions at his press conference. Blinken has ignored the fundamental point of the Russian proposals in the draft pacts for the US and NATO. He has dismissed Sherman’s talks with Ryabkov on reducing the threats of nuclear war in Europe and between Russia and the US. Instead, the words Blinken has chosen mean more war on the Ukraine front. The only “terms” (x8) he referred to are not those he is ready to “negotiate” (x1) with Russia, but the “terms of the assistance we’re providing to Ukraine for its defense, in terms of the work we’re doing at NATO to prepare as necessary to further reinforce the Alliance, and continuing to define and refine massive consequences for Russia with our allies and partners when it comes to financial, economic and other sanctions.” Tested in two hot wars, and during the Cold War, the RAND method for gauging the intention of the adversary predicts this about Blinken – he wants war with Russia; he has no mind for any alternative.
US Orders Families Of Diplomats To "Immediately" Leave Ukraine As Biden Weighs Deploying Thousands Of Troops To Eastern Europe - The US has once again done everything in its power to further inflame tensions when it ordered family members of US government workers at the US embassy in Kyiv to leave Ukraine “due to the continued threat of Russian military action,” the State Department said Sunday. “There are reports Russia is planning significant military action against Ukraine,” the State Department said in the advisory. “The security conditions, particularly along Ukraine’s borders, in Russia-occupied Crimea, and in Russia-controlled eastern Ukraine, are unpredictable and can deteriorate with little notice.” The advisory also urged U.S. citizens in Ukraine to consider leaving the country now using commercial or other private travel options, while a travel advisory elevated Ukraine to "Level 4: Do Not Travel": The decision represents a further turn of the screw in a standoff between Russia and the U.S. and its alllies over President Vladimir Putin’s military buildup along the border with Ukraine. Meanwhile, the NYT reported that Joe Biden is contemplating deploying troops to Eastern Europe and the Baltics in the clearest attempt yet to escalate tensions to an all out war just to deflect attention from his catastrophic presidency. Biden is also considering deploying warships and aircraft to NATO allies. According tot he Times, Biden is weighing sending 1,000 to 5,000 troops to Eastern European countries and could increase that number tenfold if necessary. According to Bloomberg, "the moves mark an escalation of tension, which the U.S. has sought to diffuse" and we wonder what AI algo editorialized that particular piece of trash propaganda. The latest escalations come after Blinken spoke earlier on Sunday during the TV media circuit, rejecting pressure to immediately escalate sanctions on Russia for its military buildup, saying it would limit western options in the future. He said the U.S. has focused with its European allies on building up the threat of “massive consequences” for Russia to dissuade Putin from sending forces into Ukraine and on leaving the door open to diplomacy. “The purpose of those sanctions is to deter Russian aggression and so if they’re triggered now, you lose the deterrent effect,” he said on CNN’s “State of the Union.” He said the U.S. is tracking a U.K. warning that Russia is plotting to install a pro-Kremlin government in Ukraine as part of the Kremlin’s playbook for encroaching on its neighbor.
US orders 8,500 troops on heightened alert amid Russia worry (AP) — The Pentagon ordered 8,500 troops on higher alert to potentially deploy to Europe as part of a NATO “response force” amid growing concern that Russia could soon make a military move on Ukraine. President Joe Biden consulted with key European leaders, underscoring U.S. solidarity with allies there. Putting the U.S.-based troops on heightened alert for Europe on Monday suggested diminishing hope that Russian President Vladimir Putin will back away from what Biden himself has said looks like a threat to invade neighboring Ukraine. At stake, beyond the future of Ukraine, is the credibility of a NATO alliance that is central to U.S. defense strategy but that Putin views as a Cold War relic and a threat to Russian security. For Biden, the crisis represents a major test of his ability to forge a united allied stance against Putin. Pentagon press secretary John Kirby said about 8,500 U.S.-based troops are being put on alert for possible deployment — not to Ukraine but to NATO territory in Eastern Europe as part of an alliance force meant to signal a unified commitment to deter any wider Putin aggression. Russia denies it is planning an invasion. It says Western accusations are merely a cover for NATO’s own planned provocations. Recent days have seen high-stakes diplomacy that has failed to reach any breakthrough, and key players in the drama are making moves that suggest fear of imminent war. Biden has sought to strike a balance between actions meant to deter Putin and those that might provide the Russian leader with an opening to use the huge force he has assembled at Ukraine's border. Biden held an 80-minute video call with several European leaders on the Russian military buildup and potential responses to an invasion. “I had a very, very, very good meeting — total unanimity with all the European leaders," Biden told reporters at the White House. "We’ll talk about it later.” The White House said the leaders emphasized their desire for a diplomatic solution to the crisis but also discussed efforts to deter further Russian aggression, “including preparations to impose massive consequences and severe economic costs on Russia for such actions as well as to reinforce security on NATO’s eastern flank.” Taibbi: Let's Not Have A War - Joe Biden last week said the American response in Ukraine would be proportional to Vladimir Putin’s actions. “It depends,” the president posited, thoughts drifting like blobs in a lava lamp. “It’s one thing if it’s a minor incursion…” Alarms sounded all over Washington. The rip in the national political illusion was so severe, Republicans and Democrats were forced to come out agreeing, leaping into each other’s arms in panic. Secretary of State Tony Blinken, who increasingly looks like a man about to miss a historically important free throw, said of a potential Russian invasion, “We can make crystal clear the stark consequences of that choice.” Republican Senator Ted Cruz said Biden “shocked the world by giving Putin a green light to invade Ukraine.” The National Security Council issued a statement through Jen Psaki that any Russian move into Ukraine would be “met with a swift, severe, and united response.” In a later press conference, Biden explained he had to cut things short because, “You guys will ask me all about Russia.” He appears days from pulling his pants down to show reporters the electrodes White House chief of staff Ron Klain has probably attached to his testicles by now. This is a rerun of an old story, only with a weaker lead actor. Six years ago, Barack Obama gave an interview to The Atlantic quashing Beltway militarists’ dreams of war in Ukraine: Then as now, both blue and red propaganda outlets howled. The “core interest” of the Washington consensus is war. It isn’t just big business, but our biggest business, one of the last things we still make and export on a grand scale. The bulk of the people elected to congress and a lion’s share of the lobbyists, lawyers, and journalists who snuggle in a giant fornicating mass in the capital are dedicated to the upkeep of the war bureaucracy.Their main purpose is growing the defense budget and militarizing the missions of other government agencies (from State to the Department of Energy to the CIA). Washington think-tanks exist to factory-generate intellectual justifications for foreign interventions, while attacking with ferocity — as if they were emergencies like pandemics or deadly hurricanes — the appearance of ideas like the “peace dividend” that threaten to move any of their rice bowls to some other constituency.Both Biden’s comments and the “Obama doctrine” were fundamental betrayals, presidents saying out loud that there existed such a thing as “our” interests separate from Washington’s war pig clique. The latter group somehow believes itself impervious to error, and takes extraordinary offense to challenges to its judgment, amazing given the spectacular failures in every arena from Iraq to Afghanistan to Syria.These people consistently lose popularity contests to cannibals and fingernail-pullers, and their playbook — one play they run over and over, never deviating despite decades of disaster — is designed to reduce every foreign policy situation to contests of force. Their wag-the-dog thinking always argues the right move is the one that allows them to empty their boxes of expensive toys, from weapons systems to Langley-generated schemes for overthrows, which a compliant press happily calls regime change.
Biden says he'll send troops to Eastern Europe in 'near term' - President Biden said Friday he plans to send a small number of U.S. forces to Eastern Europe in the “near term” amid growing fears of a possible Russian invasion of Ukraine. “I’ll be moving troops to Eastern Europe in the NATO countries in the near term,” Biden told reporters at Joint Base Andrews upon returning from a trip to Pittsburgh. “Not too many.” The Pentagon has put 8,500 troops on heightened alert for potential deployment to NATO countries in Eastern Europe,nand Biden’s comments seemed to signal definitively that at least some of those forces would deploy soon. Most of the troops are expected to join a NATO rapid response force in Eastern Europe. Biden’s comments are the latest sign that the White House believes a Russian invasion to be a strong possibility in the near future. Administration officials have said for more than a week a Russian invasion could be imminent, though U.S. officials have not judged that Russian President Vladimir Putin has made up his mind on invading Ukraine. “We don't believe that President Putin has made a final decision to use these forces against Ukraine,” Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin told reporters earlier Friday. “He clearly now has that capability.” Ukraine has disagreed, however, arguing that an invasion is not imminent and taking issue with the heightened rhetoric of U.S. officials and the decision by the State Department earlier this week to urge Americans and family members of embassy officials to leave Ukraine. Biden spoke with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky on Thursday during and stressed that the U.S. and European allies would “respond decisively” in the event of an invasion. Biden also said there was a “distinct possibility” Russia could invade Ukraine in February, according to the White House. Russia has staged more than 100,000 troops at the Ukrainian border and recently conducted military drills in Belarus. The Biden administration has threatened punishing economic sanctions should Russia choose to launch a renewed invasion of Ukraine. Biden and other officials have engaged in a flurry of talks with European partners in recent weeks to convey unity on a fierce response to a Russian incursion. At the same time, Biden administration officials have offered a diplomatic alternative to Russia should it pull back troops from the border. The State Department sent a response to Russian demands of NATO earlier this week, to which the Russians reacted coolly.
Is Ukraine A Distraction From Biden's Terrible Approval Rating? - As President Biden 'celebrated' the 'most successful first year of a presidency ever' last week, his approval rating hit a new low (worse than it was in November amid the Kabul crisis)...Voters have signaled their unhappiness with Biden as his agenda has shifted far from the 'moderate' he projected during the campaign - but has still disappointed every 'identity' in his party due to the lack of legislation. Furthermore, Americans see inflation is at a forty-year high, the economy is faltering, the COVID-19 pandemic is never-ending (more deaths under Biden than Trump), among numerous other things. All of which has sent the probabilities of Democrats losing the midterms later this year soaring. New polls released this week show that a majority, 56%, of Americans disapprove of the president’s job, with only 26% of Americans believing things in the country are going well.So, is it any wonder that the Biden administration is desperately seeking a distraction from the domestic chaos... and what better and more time-test strategy than to start a land-war in Eurasia.For months, Russia has amassed forces near Ukraine. Now, all of a sudden, Western corporate media and the White House have been using the threat of war to crowd out news headlines of inflation, bare shelves at supermarkets, supply chain woes, and rising violent crime.And while correlation is not causation, one can't help but notice in the chart below how as the president becomes more unpopular, the headlines about Ukraine grow larger and larger
Left says they're not to blame for Biden's problems - Progressives are pushing back at the idea that they are to blame at all for President Biden’s dismal poll numbers, arguing the White House’s problems have more to do with it moving away from a progressive agenda. They argue the anemic polls largely reflect an unimpressed base disillusioned that Biden has been unwilling to deliver on issues such as voting rights, health care, gun control and climate change. “Biden’s popularity was high when he ran on a progressive agenda — and it dropped when he let corporate Democrats take the reins,” said Varshini Prakash, executive director of the Sunrise Movement. “It shouldn’t be a surprise that voters are becoming impatient.” A Pew Research Center survey released on Wednesday found Biden with just a 41 percent approval rating, down from 59 percent in April. Among Black adults, a key constituency for Biden, just 60 percent approved of Biden’s job performance, down from 67 percent in September. The bad poll numbers come after voting rights legislation failed to move forward in the Senate this month despite Biden’s urgings. It faltered because of opposition from Republicans, and because two centrist Democrats — Joe Manchin of West Virginia and Kyrsten Sinema of Arizona — opposed a carveout from the filibuster to move the voting rights legislation on Democratic senator votes alone. Those two centrists have also been major impediments to Biden’s Build Back Better agenda, which includes a host of progressive priorities including an extension of a child tax credit and what would be the most ambitious effort to tackle climate change to pass Congress. Moderate Democrats for much of the last year argued that progressives risked pulling Biden too far to the left to the detriment of their party. Sinema pushed back at proposals for higher taxes on corporations and wealthy households in the Build Back Better bill, arguing it was bad policy considering the economic climate, while Manchin opposed further spending given rising inflation.Republicans have played up the divisions and cast Biden as a puppet of the left. They see that argument as helping them win swing districts in the suburbs next fall that will lead to GOP congressional majorities for the rest of Biden’s term. But progressives argue Biden is playing into GOP hands by not fully embracing progressive priorities. They see the passage of the bipartisan infrastructure bill signed into law by Biden last fall as a lost opportunity that cut into their leverage for pressuring Manchin and Sinema on the Build Back Better legislation — which is also their top priority. And they think a closer look at the polls shows that Biden’s real problems lie in a demoralized base — which they fear could also cost the party this fall. “They’re standing in the way of the president’s promises, and it will be mostly their fault if Democrats lose Congress in November,” Prakash said of moderate Democrats. Moderates have taken aim at White House chief of staff Ron Klain, a longtime aide to the president who has taken heat from some moderates who say he is aligned too closely with liberals. The Washington Post reported that some think Klain is too deferential toward Rep. Pramila Jayapal (D-Wash.), the chairwoman of the Congressional Progressive Caucus. \
Joe Biden's Gasoline Problem Is Back - Costly crude oil means runaway gasoline. With Brent now threatening to hit $90/bbl, pressure on the vital motor fuel remains to the upside. In this environment, look for governments trying to protect hard-pressed consumers -- aka voters -- from pain at the pump.The latest salvo came in Asia this morning. Japan said it will give oil refiners subsidies that are designed to help processors maintain margins without passing on the rising costs to customers. The strategy also applies to diesel and kerosene oil, and may be followed by other measures.The same dynamic is at play in the U.S., where gasoline futures have surged more than 50% over the past 12 months. A worried Joe Biden has already orchestrated a crude release from strategic reserves, an initiative joined by Japan among others. That bought some time, but didn’t turn the tide. Average retail prices are a few cents below the seven-year high hit in November. The next focus will be the Feb. 2 OPEC+ meeting, when producers will review the market and decide on supply policy. The Biden administration will likely step up diplomatic efforts to get members that still have spare capacity to deliver more crude. Whether they’ll listen is quite another matter.
Hot mic catches Biden calling Fox News reporter 'stupid son of a b----' --President Biden was caught on a hot microphone Monday calling Fox News reporter Peter Doocy a "stupid son of a bitch" after he asked a question about inflation. "Will you take a question on inflation?" Doocy shouted to Biden at the White House during an event billed as a meeting with administration officials on efforts to lower prices for working families."Do you think inflation is a political liability ahead of the midterms?" Doocy then asked. "That's a great asset," Biden responded. "More inflation. What a stupid son of a bitch." Biden has had a somewhat contentious relationship with Doocy since the Fox News reporter covered his presidential campaign in 2020. During a press conference last week, Doocy asked Biden why he had taken the country "so far to the left," which the president laughed off before saying he's not a socialist. Video of Biden's comment was widely circulated on social media within minutes. Speaking later on "Special Report" about the comments, Doocy said he couldn't hear the president at the time.
Build Back Better bill is 'mission critical' for electric vehicle industry, Ford CEO says - Ford CEO Jim Farley is keen on seeing President Joe Biden's stalled Build Back Better bill passed in an effort to boost electric vehicle adoption in the United States. "It's mission critical for the EV industry," Farley said on Yahoo Finance Live. As it stands now, the Build Back Better (BBB) bill would offer credits of up to $12,500 for consumers if they purchase an electric vehicle. The bill would also aid in the development of more public charging stations. Both aspects of the bill are seen as key in helping to reach Biden's goal of having half of all new vehicles sold by 2030 being electric vehicles. But after passing the U.S. House of Representatives last year, the $2.2 trillion bill has died in the Senate amid concerns on the price tag and the potential to stoke greater inflation. "If we don't get our act together, we'll be behind as a country. It's not just about helping consumers make this transition. All the battery production, all the jobs, the raw material development in our country, all the intellectual property. We were the number one employer in the United States in the auto sector. We want these American jobs, these innovative technology jobs to come to America. This bill and the incentives for consumers will absolutely be the key thing to help us do that. We need to be competitive as a country," Farley explained. Farley, GM CEO Mary Barra, HP CEO Enrique Lores, and Etsy CEO Josh Silverman are among the top leaders that will meet with Biden on Wednesday to discuss Build Back Better.
As Biden meets with CEOs on stalled Build Back Better plan, analysts believe a $1 trillion-plus package is 'probable' - As President Joe Biden keeps beating the drum for his Build Back Better package, analysts are saying parts of it still have a good chance of becoming reality even after last month’s big setback. Biden met Wednesday with 10 private-sector executives, as a White House official said the execs would “highlight what they see as the key benefits of BBB for the American economy and American business.” General Motors CEO Mary Barra, Ford CEO Jim Farley, Microsoft President Brad Smith, Salesforce.com CEO Marc Benioff and TIAA CEO Thasunda Brown Duckett were among the participants in the meeting. Corning CEO Wendell Weeks, HP CEO Enrique Lores, Cummins CEO Tom Linebarger, Etsy CEO Josh Silverman and Siemens CEO Barbara Humpton took part as well. The gathering at the White House comes a week after Biden said he expected his social-spending and climate package probably will get broken up in order to have parts of it passed by Congress. A key moderate Democratic senator, West Virginia’s Joe Manchin, said in mid-December that he couldn’t support the roughly $2 trillion package in its form at that time, ending top Democrats’ push to get it passed in 2021. A “BBB 2.0” is likely to emerge between Feb. 18 and Biden’s State of the Union address on March 1, said Chris Krueger, a strategist and managing director at Cowen Washington Research Group, in a note on Wednesday. Feb. 18 is a key date in Washington, D.C., because that’s when another funding measure needs to get enacted in order to avoid a partial government shutdown. Related: Congress votes to keep government open through mid-February Isaac Boltansky, a director of policy research and managing director at BTIG, has offered a similar timeline as Krueger. “With the president’s comments resetting the conversation, and the State of the Union address on March 1 expected to inject a degree of urgency, we believe Congressional Democrats will refocus on the social infrastructure package in February,” Boltansky said in a recent note. “We expect the next few weeks on Capitol Hill to be dominated by the February 18 federal funding deadline,” he added. The BTIG analyst also has offered the table below showing “what could conceivably be included in any final social infrastructure package.” “We continue to see a better than 50% probability that some pieces of the BBB can become law,” said Benjamin Salisbury, director of research at Height Capital Markets, in a recent note. “Our bias continues to be that progressives will eventually accept that they lack the votes to pass their full BBB wish-list and slash the agenda to meet the Manchin test. However, there is only the faintest of evidence for this capitulation a year into an exceedingly narrowly divided Congress,” the Height analyst added.
Democrats mull how much to build back, and when, in budget bill - Democrats eager to enact some form of their climate and safety net package before the November midterm elections are floating disparate strategies for resurrecting negotiations West Virginia centrist Sen. Joe Manchin III squashed last month. Manchin suggests “starting from scratch,” but his Democratic colleagues don’t want to throw the baby out with the bathwater. Democrats have different views on how much of the House-passed $2.2 trillion package is salvageable and how long they should negotiate with Manchin after protracted talks last year led nowhere. President Joe Biden said in a press conference last week he’s “confident” some pieces of the existing package will become law before the midterms, citing more than $500 billion in clean energy spending and tax incentives and funding for universal pre-kindergarten as examples of provisions that have broad support, including from Manchin. But Biden said he’s “not sure” a renewal of the expired child tax credit expansion providing monthly checks to families of up to $300 per child will remain in the next iteration given Manchin’s opposition to the current structure. “I think we can break the package up, get as much as we can now, and come back and fight for the rest later,” he said. Most Democrats agree with Biden’s general strategy, but there are different factions forming around what’s actually doable now when it comes to the sweeping budget bill they've dubbed "Build Back Better." Sen. Edward J. Markey, D-Mass., said in a statement last week that Democrats should start with the climate and clean energy provisions because those “have been largely worked through and financed” to win Manchin’s approval. Other Democrats agree the climate provisions should serve as the basis of the package and any others that can get 50 votes can be added in. Since saying he wanted to start negotiations from scratch, the climate provisions are the only piece of the package Manchin has reiterated he could support. “I think that there’s a lot of areas in climate that we agree,” he said in an interview with Newsy on Wednesday. Child credit coalition Another group of senators still wants to build the package around the expanded child tax credit, despite Manchin's argument that the benefit should be further restricted based on income and work requirements. "West Virginians basically that make $75,000 or less should be the highest priority we have," Manchin said Thursday on Talkline with Hoppy Kercheval, a local radio show.
Progressives apply pressure on Biden, Senate to pass Build Back Better - The Congressional Progressive Caucus is applying pressure to President Biden and Senate Democrats to pass his signature Build Back Better Act by the State of the Union at the start of March. Rep. Pramila Jayapal (D-Wash.), who chairs the caucus, said in a statement on Thursday afternoon that the case for passage of the party’s sweeping climate and social spending package “has only become more urgent” since negotiations around the bill stalled. “Public housing residents have endured devastating fires, the cost of insulin and other prescription drugs continue to crush working people, and parents are desperate for child care support. This desperately needed relief cannot be delayed any longer,” she said. Jayapal said the caucus wants Biden and Senate Democrats to secure the plan’s passage by March 1 so the president “can use the power of the State of the Union platform to share with the nation the relief that people will soon receive.” “This is both achievable and necessary,” she said. “There is agreement among Senate Democrats on significant parts of this bill: climate action, the care economy, taking on Big Pharma’s price gouging, and lowering health care costs. There is agreement on the need to reduce rising costs facing ordinary Americans — and that is exactly what Build Back Better does.” Democrats have been working since last summer to pass the trillion-dollar plan, a significant chunk of Biden’s legislative agenda that the party hoped to use to unlock funding for items like universal pre-K, historic investments for climate action and affordable housing. However, negotiations stalled around the plan last month amid opposition from Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.), a key centrist holdout who has been reluctant to get on board with the spending package, citing concerns about the size of the package and rising inflation. “I cannot vote to continue with this piece of legislation. I just can't. I tried everything humanly possible. I can't get there," Manchin declared on "Fox News Sunday" in December. "This is a 'no' on this legislation." Since then, Democrats have reached out to Manchin to revive talks around the plan. “There's a lot of conversation going on now. They've been reaching out,” Manchin said in an interview with West Virginia MetroNews's Hoppy Kercheval on Thursday morning. He also said he’s still open to participating in negotiations around the spending plan, though he added he wants “to be realistic,” after again voicing concerns about inflation. The interview comes a week after Manchin said Democrats would be "starting from scratch” in talks around the plan, casting more uncertainty about when the party will likely pass the package after already spending months crafting the legislation.
Pelosi sidesteps progressives' March 1 deadline for Build Back Better House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) said on Friday that she does not “subscribe to any particular date” to get the Democrats' social spending bill passed, sidestepping a March 1 deadline pushed for by progressives. Speaking at an infrastructure event at the San Francisco International Airport, the speaker called progressives’ March 1 timetable “an aspiration," but noted that the House has other pieces of legislation that it needs to take up, including the omnibus bill and CHIPS Act. “We will pass the bill when we have the votes to pass the bill, and we cannot stop pressing for that,” Pelosi said. “We have a number of pieces of legislation that we're working on, but the [Build Back Better] is absolutely essential. I hope that they're right. I don't subscribe to any particular date,” Pelosi added of progressives’ sought-after deadline. White House press secretary Jen Psaki similarly sidestepped a question regarding progressives’ calls to have President Biden's Build Back Better legislation passed by March. “No, we have not set a deadline. No,” Psaki said on Wednesday. Pelosi’s remarks are an acknowledgement that Democrats still do not have the votes needed to pass their legislation, which is full of Democratic priorities. While the House in early November advanced the social spending bill, it stalled in the Senate after Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) in December surprised Democratic colleagues and the White House by announcing that he would not be voting for the Build Back Better bill. Since then, the president has acknowledged that the legislation will likely have to be broken up and that not all of what Democrats want will be able to make it into the bill. Still, Congressional Progressive Caucus chair Pramila Jayapal (D-Wash.) and others are urging the Senate and White House not to let the legislation languish too long. “Public housing residents have endured devastating fires, the cost of insulin and other prescription drugs continue to crush working people, and parents are desperate for child care support. This desperately needed relief cannot be delayed any longer,” she said in a statement on Thursday.
AOC: Joe Manchin Has 'Different Demand' Every Day on Build Back Better -Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez of New York took a swipe at Sen. Joe Manchin of West Virginia, saying the Democratic holdout changed his mind from one day to the next on President Joe Biden's proposed $2 trillion social- and climate-spending package. Ocasio-Cortez criticized Manchin, saying he issued a "laundry list" of demands on the plan, which is directed at expanding healthcare and childcare, as well as aggressively combating the climate emergency. "The issue that we have is that every day Joe Manchin wakes up, he has a different demand. And he wants to start over from scratch every single day," she told MSNBC on Wednesday night. "That is a quite difficult position to work with." She added: "This idea of just give him what he wants — he's been given everything that he wants." Her comments reflect a simmering frustration that many Democrats — particularly progressives — have with Manchin for derailing the centerpiece of the party's economic agenda last month. He has listed several concerns with the bill, including its effects on inflation and the national debt. Manchin has criticized the "shell games" of the plan that he said were meant to disguise its true cost. He has also said since the fall that he wants the price tag to be kept at no more than $1.75 trillion. Democrats labored to strike a deal with him on major parts of the bill, including the expanded child tax credit, which would provide checks to families. But he later reiterated his demands that the measure include a work requirement. Manchin had pitched the White House on a $1.8 trillion package that included subsidies people could use to purchase health insurance from Affordable Care Act exchanges, universal pre-K, and childcare. But he told Insider earlier this month the offer was off the table and future negotiations with the White House would be "starting from scratch." Party leaders are going in the opposite direction and urging rank-and-file members to avoid pummeling Manchin and Sen. Kyrsten Sinema of Arizona, another holdout who demanded major tax changes to the legislation. Senate Democrats can't afford a single defection in their drive to turn the package into law.
Billionaire GOP donor maxed out to Manchin following his Build Back Better opposition - Billionaire Republican donor Ken Langone made the maximum allowable donation to Sen. Joe Manchin’s (D-W.Va.) PAC weeks after Manchin announced that he would oppose President Joe Biden’s Build Back Better bill, according to a Federal Election Commission filing. Langone and his wife, Elaine Langone, each made $5,000 contributions to Manchin's Country Roads leadership PAC on Dec. 31, reaching the benchmark for the most an individual is allowed to donate to a PAC of this kind in a single year. Langone sent the donations to Manchin less than two weeks after the senator told Fox News he would not support Biden’s $1.75 trillion climate and social spending bill. This was the first time Langone donated to Manchin's campaign or leadership PAC, according to the nonpartisan Center for Responsive Politics as reported by CNBC. Langone told CNBC in November that he plans to host a large fundraising event for Manchin, who is up for reelection in 2024. “Thank God for Joe Manchin,” Langone said at the time during an appearance on the network. “He's special. He's precious. He's a great American.” Manchin’s leadership PAC received more than $150,000 in December donations, according to CNBC. Langone supported former President Trump's 2016 campaign, but has since criticized Trump for insisting the "Unite the Right" rally in Charlottesville, Va., included "very fine people" in 2017 and for his conduct surrounding the Jan. 6 insurrection, during which Trump supporters stormed the U.S. Capitol in an effort to prevent Congress from certifying the 2020 election. Langone also recently donated to the Senate Leadership Fund, a top Republican super PAC, and Americans for Prosperity Action, a conservative advocacy group backed by GOP mega-donor Charles Koch, according to CNBC.
‘No More Hiding’: Sanders Says Make GOP Vote on Popular Policies - Voicing exasperation with months of fruitless backroom talks over the Build Back Better Act, Sen. Bernie Sanders on Wednesday demanded floor votes on individual pieces of the stalled legislation in order to force Republicans—and right-wing Democrats—to go on the record opposing policies with widespread public support.Sanders (I-Vt.), the chair of the Senate Budget Committee, wrote in an op-ed for The Hill that “amazingly, there have been no votes” in the Senate on the Build Back Better package, the House-passed version of which includes an extension of the boosted child tax credit, a plan to lower sky-high prescription drug prices, and significant investments in renewable energy, child care, housing, and other Democratic priorities.“The result: the Republican Party is able to escape responsibility for their reactionary positions and is now laughing all the way to likely political success in the 2022 elections,” the Vermont senator warned. “Here’s a radical idea for the Senate, ‘the world’s greatest deliberative body.’ Let’s vote. Let’s have every Republican and Democrat take a position on some of the most important issues facing the working families of this country.”Republicans haven’t exactly been quiet about their opposition to the Build Back Better package as a whole. Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) has repeatedly derided the bill as a “liberal wish list,” and House Republicans unanimously voted against he $1.75 trillion measure in November.But Sanders argued that making Republicans cast votes on singular components of the legislation that are supported even by a large percentage of GOP voters—such as a plan allowing Medicare to negotiate medicine prices directly with pharmaceutical companies—would be good politics for the Democratic Party and beneficial for the country.“Eighty-three percent of the American people support empowering the federal government to negotiate with the pharmaceutical industry to lower prescription drug prices,” Sanders noted Wednesday. “What do the Republicans think? Are they prepared to stand up to the greed of the pharmaceutical industry which charges us the highest prices in the world for prescription drugs?”“Let’s vote and find out,” the senator wrote.Sanders made the same demand of other portions of the Build Back Better Act, from Medicare expansion to paid family leave to tax hikes on the rich to climate action—all of which, the senator argued, have strong backing from the U.S. public. “This is an enormously difficult moment for the struggling working class of our country, and the Senate needs to act,” he wrote. “In our democracy, the American people have a right to know where their senators stand on the most important issues impacting their lives. No more endless ‘negotiations.’ No more hiding behind closed doors. Let’s vote.”
Even working piecemeal, Democrats need a full agenda for children - With their broader agenda stalled, President Biden and congressional Democrats have signaled they are ready to start focusing on single-issue pieces of legislation with the hopes of passing something. Pick the elements of the Build Back Better Act that are most likely to win votes and leave everything else for a later day. When it comes to children and families, it seems the Democrats have chosen universal early childcare over an expanded child tax credit or paid family leave — or maybe let Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) pick it for them. There are a lot of good reasons the U.S. should join the rest of the industrially developed world and make high-quality early childhood education available to every child. But improved childcare is only one piece of the puzzle, and that alone cannot deliver the results, for kids or our society, that voters say they want. If the politically expedient thing to do is divide the Build Back Better Act into small bills, fine. But Democratic leaders should still bring each piece of an agenda for children and families forward for a vote, and make every senator take a public stand if they are for or against children. The debate alone would be a chance to engage more people in the conversation about policies that support child development, reduce poverty, increase racial equity, and reduce inequality.If Manchin and every Senate Republican maintain their opposition to expanding the child tax credit and paid family leave, the Democrats will still have set the agenda around the importance of these issues and for the continued fight ahead. So why not just focus on universal child care? Developing a high-quality child care system, even one that relies on existing infrastructure, will take time. Many states have been working on this and there are still child care deserts and places where families cannot access quality care even if they can afford it. This will not change overnight even with money. It takes time to develop infrastructure. Early education providers need both a living wage and many need additional education in child development. In the interim, many families will continue to struggle. While there is substantial research about the value of high-quality care, there is also significant research about the harmful impacts of childhood stress associated with poverty. Last year’s temporary expanded Child Tax Credit alone reduced the number of children in poverty in the United States by 28%. According to the Center on Poverty & Social Policy at Columbia University, this credit brought 3.4 million children out of poverty thus reducing the stress on their brains and making them more likely to develop in a healthier way. Prior to the America Rescue Bill’s changes to the Child Tax Credit, 27 million children received less than the full credit which was provided to higher income families. This was not only grossly unfair but also disproportionately affected children of color. We also need a bill mandating paid parental leave. According to polls conducted by the Pew Research Center 8 out of 10 Americans support paid family leave. The States of New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Massachusetts, California, Oregon, Washington State, Rhode Island and Washington, D.C., all provide paid family leave and a recent report by theNational Bureau of Economic Research indicates that paid leave does not harm employers. All caregivers should receive 12 weeks of paid leave following childbirth or adoption. This should include both employed and self-employed workers given the nature of our increasingly flexible workforce. This could be funded in a variety of ways. Many states have included a small increase in payroll taxes. This is essential to enable families to adjust to have time to bond and adjust to their new children and is essential for healthy child development. This would also support the physical and mental health of parents. Physically and mentally healthy parents are critical for healthy child development whose brains are shaped by early care experiences. And, as noted above, chronic stress in early childhood negatively affects long-term brain development.
House leaders unveil bill to boost chip industry, science competitiveness with China - House Democratic leaders unveiled legislation on Tuesday aimed at bolstering investments in U.S. science research and development to better compete with China and address the shortage of semiconductor chips. The Senate previously passed its own version of the bill in June. But House Democrats opted to go their own route and are now introducing their preferred proposal more than six months later as the Biden administration is urging Congress to help enable increased domestic chip production. Shortages of the chips that power cars, computers and other electronics have exacerbated recent supply chain bottlenecks. Democrats, eager to show that they're taking action to address the supply chain problems that have caused the price of many goods and services to spike in recent months, are now turning to the long-awaited legislation. It's not clear yet precisely when the House, which is out of session this week, will take up the legislation for a vote. Some individual components of the bill have already passed in the House, such as two bipartisan measures to increase funding for National Science Foundation and Department of Energy research. Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) said that the House bill would eventually be merged with the Senate's version to get it to Biden's desk "as soon as possible." "Now is the time to recommit to boldly and strategically investing in our nation’s future, and to do so in a way that strengthens the supply chain, lowers costs and ensures that America can out-compete any nation, today and for decades to come," Pelosi said in a statement.
White House confirms Judge J. Michelle Childs under consideration for Supreme Court - The White House confirmed to The Washington Post on Friday that J. Michelle Childs, a federal district judge in South Carolina, is one of several candidates whom the president is considering to be his nominee to the Supreme Court.The South Carolina judge is “among multiple individuals under consideration for the Supreme Court,” White House spokesperson Andrew Bates told the newspaper.However, he also pushed back at news reports that suggested the president was only considering three potential picks, which have often mentioned Childs, Ketanji Brown Jackson from the U.S. Court of Appeals for the D.C. Circuit and California Supreme Court Judge Leondra Kruger. “And we are not going to move her nomination on the Court of Appeals while the President is considering her for this vacancy,” Bates told The Post, referring to her nomination last month by Biden to serve on the D.C. Circuit Court of Appeals. “At the same time, reporting indicating that the President is only seriously considering three potential nominees is incorrect.”The newspaper noted it is the first time that a name of a possible contender for the Supreme Court nomination has been confirmed by the White House. The development comes as Justice Stephen Breyer announced this week he would be stepping down following the high court’s current term. Biden reiterated his plan to nominate a Black woman to the Supreme Court during remarks on Thursday.Childs has received support from House Majority Whip James Clyburn (D-S.C.), and he told CNN in an interview on Wednesday that he believed “several Republicans,” including Sens. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) and Tim Scott (R-S.C.), would support her if she were chosen.
New Mexico Democrat tests positive for COVID-19 breakthrough case - New Mexico Rep. Melanie Stansbury (D) announced on Tuesday that she had tested positive for COVID-19. "Today, I tested positive with a breakthrough case of COVID-19, though I am fully vaccinated and boosted," Stansbury said in a statement. "I am currently quarantining at home following medical guidance after experiencing respiratory symptoms." Also on Tuesday, Sen. Mark Warner (D-Va.), who chairs the Senate Intelligence Committee, announced that he had tested positive for the virus and was "glad that he has been vaccinated and boosted." The lawmakers join the growing list of political leaders who have tested positive for breakthrough cases of the virus in recent weeks including Sens. Brian Schatz (D-Hawaii) and Rob Portman (R-Ohio) and Reps. Michael McCaul (R-Texas) and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.). Last week, Rep. Thomas Massie (R-Ky.), who is unvaccinated, also tested positive for the virus and said he had experienced cold and allergy symptoms for one day “but seem[s] to be over it.” Though the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) has said breakthrough cases are “expected,” the agency noted that those cases tend to cause less severe illness than the infections of unvaccinated individuals.
Warner tests positive for breakthrough COVID-19 case - Sen. Mark Warner (D-Va.), who chairs the Senate Intelligence Committee, has tested positive for a breakthrough coronavirus case, his office announced Tuesday. “Senator Warner has tested positive for a breakthrough case of COVID-19. He is glad that he has been vaccinated and boosted, and at this time his symptoms are extremely mild," Rachel Cohen, Warner's communications director, said in a statement. "Senator Warner will be working from home in accordance with guidelines from the Centers for Disease Control and Office of the Attending Physician for the duration of his isolation period," she added. Warner is the latest lawmaker to test positive for a breakthrough case of the coronavirus. Sens. Brian Schatz (D-Hawaii) and Rob Portman (R-Ohio) and Reps. Michael McCaul (R-Texas) and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.) have all contracted COVID-19 in recent weeksThe Centers for Disease Control and Prevention says that while breakthrough cases are “expected,” they typically cause less severe illness compared to infections among unvaccinated individuals. The Capitol physician Brian Monahan disclosed earlier this month that the seven-day average positivity rate in the U.S. Capitol had increased from less than 1 percent to more than 13 percent. The majority of cases have been detected in vaccinated individuals. Monahan has also urged lawmakers and staff to wear KN95 or N95 masks while in the Capitol, in response to the highly transmissible omicron variant. While the House has rules on wearing masks while in the chamber, the Senate does not, and most GOP senators do not routinely wear masks around the complex.
Romney tests positive for coronavirus - Sen. Mitt Romney (R-Utah) tested positive for a breakthrough case of COVID-19, his office said in a statement on Friday. “Senator Romney tested positive today for COVID-19. He is currently asymptomatic and will be isolating and working remotely for the recommended period of time,” his office said. “Mrs. Romney has tested negative. Both Senator and Mrs. Romney have been fully vaccinated and boosted against the virus.” Several dozen lawmakers in both the House and Senate, almost all of whom were vaccinated, have tested positive for COVID-19 since last summer. Some of the lawmakers who tested positive for COVID-19 earlier this month included Reps. Michael McCaul (R-Texas), Ben Cline (R-Va.), John Katko (R-N.Y.), Jim Cooper (D-Tenn.) and Jeff Fortenberry (R-Neb.). The United States is still reporting daily COVID-19 cases in the hundreds of thousands, including over 570,000 infections reported on Thursday, according to data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Earlier this week, President Biden’s chief medical adviser Anthony Fauci said that he was confident that most states would see COVID-19 cases peak in mid-February. "You never want to be overconfident when you're dealing with this virus," Fauci said during an appearance on ABC's "This Week.""But if you look at the patterns that we've seen in South Africa, in the U.K. and in Israel ... they have peaked and [are] starting to come down rather sharply." While evidence increasingly suggests that the omicron variant is less likely that delta to cause severe illness or death, the United States this week saw the average number of COVID-19 deaths outpace the delta surge’s peak from last September.
Federal judge in Texas blocks Biden’s vaccine mandate for federal workers A federal judge in Texas on Friday blocked President Biden's mandate for federal workers to be vaccinated against COVID-19 in the latest blow to the White House's vaccination efforts. Judge Jeffrey Brown, who was appointed by former President Trump, wrote that the order exceeded the president's authority. The case is about "whether the President can, with the stroke of a pen and without the input of Congress, require millions of federal employees to undergo a medical procedure as a condition of their employment," Brown wrote.The Department of Justice immediately said it would appeal.The order comes after the Supreme Court earlier this month blocked Biden's mandate that employees at businesses with 100 or more workers get vaccinated or regularly tested, while upholding the vaccination mandate for health care workers.The federal government's power to mandate vaccination for its own employees is thought to be on stronger legal footing, though Friday's ruling underscores the ongoing nature of the dispute."I’m sorry, but this is just insane," Steve Vladeck, a law professor at the University of Texas, wrote on Twitter. "The federal government lacks the power to require its *own* employees to be vaccinated?"Judge Brown pointed to the interest in "maintaining the liberty of individuals to make intensely personal decisions according to their own convictions." Republicans have mounted a major legal campaign against Biden's vaccine mandates and have denounced them for infringing on people's personal choices.
Arizona Sues U.S. to Block Clawback of Funds Over School Mask-Wearing Policies - Arizona sued the Biden administration on Friday seeking to prevent the Treasury Department from recouping federal pandemic aid from the state over policies related to mask-wearing in schools.The state, in a lawsuit filed in federal district court in Phoenix, said that the Treasury Department exceeded its legal authority by establishing final rules governing the aid program—known as State and Local Fiscal Recovery Funds—that include health-related stipulations. At issue are funds Arizona received as part of the program, established through a $1.9 trillion Covid-19 relief package Congress passed last year. The Treasury Department last week threatened to claw back some of the $2.1 billion Arizona has received because the state used the funds to establish two programs the federal government said undermine the use of masks in schools. “If Congress had truly intended to give Treasury the power to dictate public health edicts to the States, and recoup or withhold [Recovery Funds] monies based on an alleged lack of compliance with such edicts, it would have spoken clearly on the matter. It did not,” the lawsuit said. Arizona asked the court to declare the Treasury’s program rules invalid. “Treasury believes the rule is correct and allowed by the statute and Constitution,” said Dayanara Ramirez, a Treasury spokesperson. Treasury in a letter last week said Arizona had used some of the federal funds in an ineligible way because the state had created two programs that erode efforts to stop the spread of Covid-19. One program—which the state allocated $163 million to award grants to increase per pupil funding—is open only to Arizona schools that don’t require the use of face coverings, the Treasury Department said. The state allocated the other program $10 million to provide funding of up to $7,000 to eligible families to pay for alternatives to their current school, such as child care, online tutoring and tuition. Families can tap those funds if they are able to demonstrate that their current school is “isolating, quarantining, or subjecting children to physical Covid-19 constraints in schools, such as requiring the use of masks or providing preferential treatment to vaccinated students,” according to a state press release last August.
Mask rules spark political games and a nasty environment in the House - Rules instituted by Democrats requiring lawmakers to wear masks at the Capitol are being routinely ignored by Republicans, underscoring the scorched-earth environment in the House when it comes to the coronavirus. Republicans and Democrats for much of the pandemic have strongly disagreed over what rules should be instituted to keep the Capitol — and the public at large — safe. And nearly two years after the first cases in the U.S., things are getting worse, not better, when it comes to people following the rules. A number of Republicans have seen it as good politics to push back against Democratic rules on masks. Two far-right Republicans, Reps. Marjorie Taylor Greene and Andrew Clyde of Georgia, have been fined at least $148,500 combined for repeatedly defying the House chamber's mask mandate. The fines have won further attention for Greene and Clyde who have used their refusal to wear masks as a badge of honor. Republicans on the House Intelligence Committee this week refused to comply with a request from Chairman Adam Schiff (D-Calif.) for all members to get tested for COVID-19 before attending a scheduled briefing on Iran. The House Intelligence Committee’s ranking Republican, Rep. Michael Turner (Ohio), made a point on Wednesday of announcing at the weekly GOP leadership press conference that he and other members of the panel wouldn’t agree to get tested before the closed-door briefing set for the next day. The Capitol complex has its own COVID-19 testing site for lawmakers and staff, who can get PCR test results typically within the same day. Turner didn’t dispute the value of testing, but rather argued that lawmakers shouldn’t get to take advantage of easy access to COVID-19 testing when many Americans have had difficulty finding tests in recent weeks. Differences over rules sometimes are less about politics and more about the general fatigue over the virus that has become a part of everyday life Even amid the highly transmissible omicron variant, many Republicans eschew masks in the Capitol hallways outside the chamber where the House mask mandate is in effect but isn't enforceable with fines. The fights over COVID-19 precautions are emblematic of the increasingly nasty environment in the House, where the pandemic has driven an already-divided body even further apart. Infuriated Democrats perceive Republicans as unconcerned about potentially getting other people sick, while Republicans are angry over rules that they think are unnecessarily restrictive.
White House dismisses DeSantis calls to reverse decision on antibody therapies that don't work -White House press secretary Jen Psaki on Tuesday dismissed criticism from Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) and other Republicans who are demanding the Biden administration continue to allow states to use a COVID-19 treatment that doesn't work against the omicron variant. The Food and Drug Administration (FDA) on Monday said it is limiting the use of two monoclonal antibody therapies from Eli Lilly and Regeneron because they are ineffective at treating the omicron variant. As a result, Florida health officials closed the state's antibody treatment centers. DeSantis was quick to blast the move, saying in a statement that Biden "has forced trained medical professionals to choose between treating their patients or breaking the law." "There are real-world implications to Biden’s medical authoritarianism — Americans’ access to treatments is now subject to the whims of a failing president," he added. DeSantis has been one of the most outspoken proponents of antibody treatments, especially the cocktail from Regeneron that was given to former President Trump. The treatments were highly effective at keeping out of the hospital people who were infected with the original strain of the coronavirus, as well as the delta variant, but studies in labs have shown they do not work against omicron. According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), more than 99 percent of infections nationwide are now from omicron.
As death toll mounts, US officials, media try to declare the pandemic over - As of yesterday, there have been 72 million COVID infections and almost 890,000 deaths in the United States. At the present rate, deaths will reach 900,000 this week, and will top one million before winter is over.But even as the Omicron surge continues its spread across the country, hosannas are being proclaimed that the end of the pandemic is nigh. Every media report claims to detect a silver lining in even the grimmest figures. Biden administration COVID spokesmen like Dr. Anthony Fauci and Dr. Rochelle Walensky endorse such distortions.Dr. Ali Mokdad, a professor at the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) and chief strategy officer for population health at the University of Washington, told Bloomberg News, “We are going to go through a couple more weeks that are very difficult on our hospitals but come mid-February, March, we should be in a very good position.”The only real objective evidence on this prognosis is that repeatedly, throughout the pandemic, high-profile scientists and political pundits have declared the latest surge to be the last. And each time a new, more virulent variant appeared, the same health officials quietly discard such claims into their social media wastebaskets as hospitals surge past their capacity and deaths pile higher, only to emerge once the wave recedes and proclaim once again that the last wave has passed. Such prognoses are entirely in conflict with developments on the ground and lack any scientific merit:
- The daily average number of COVID-19 cases remains over 700,000 per day, nearly five million people each week
- The COVID test positivity rate for the US has surpassed 30 percent, demonstrating that even the current sky-high case metrics are underestimates
- The daily average of patients admitted to hospitals is 159,000, the highest level of the entire pandemic
- The daily average death rate has reached 2,162, above the Delta peak in September, and headed towards the all-time high of last winter
- On Friday alone, there were 3,856 COVID deaths reported
- Almost a million children (981,858) were infected last week, and, on average, 880 children are being admitted to hospitals each day
- Fifteen children died last week of COVID
The Omicron peaks in regions along the Eastern seaboard, hit first by the new variant, are subsiding, as New York, New Jersey, Washington D.C., Pennsylvania, Florida, and Massachusetts see both cases and hospital admissions declining, though the figures remain near pandemic highs.However, the Mountain West, South and rural areas generally—states like Oklahoma, Arkansas, Missouri, South Carolina, Mississippi, Tennessee, and Kansas—see cases, hospitalizations, and deaths all continue their ascent. And Omicron is now hitting resource-poor regions with the fewest people vaccinated and health systems in shambles.
Covid: “The Narrative Is Crumbling” - - Yves Smith - Our Covid brain trust had a wee discussion of how the dogs are no longer (much) eating the dog food of vaccines as the magic bullet for all problems Covid. Even if the press is hammering away at the story line, we’re seeing more and more defections…including from those inside the media tent. Bear in mind that until recently, Kim Iversen was of the “let ‘er rip” school of thinking. Now she’s declaring that the vaccines, even boosts, do perilous little to stop Covid. She tears into the public health establishment for being “hyperfocused” on the vaccies , and the degree of neglect and misinformation amounts to crimes against humanity. Mind you, our GM has been giving a more cool-headed version of this argument for over a year….but to see a version of it in the mainstream media?Further consider: the media is a hothouse. Iverson would not dare take a line like this and risk career damage and being shunned socially unless at least a substantial minority of her peers felt the same way.Iverson also tears into the officialdom for the lack of any guidance about what to do if you get sick except go hide and hope you don’t get so debilitated that you need to call 911. Recall that this isn’t just a problem for lowly patients. IM Doc has repeatedly inveighed against the CDC for failing to give advice to clinicians…one of its most important responsibilities in past infectious disease outbreaks. It’s completely punted with Covid. The US should be ashamed that third world countries are doing better by sending diagnosis and treatment kits to citizens, with care packs including thermometers, blood oximeters, test kits, zinc, Vitamin C, Vitamin D, OTC meds for fever, and sometimes the I drug. But Iversen’s self-described rant hasn’t fully abandoned her previous view that getting Covid might not be terrible. She highlights “natural immunity” (as opposed to “Covid-induced immunity”) as her #2 topic, and it takes a while for her to work around to her point: If you have gotten Covid, how long are you unlikely to get it again and infect others? She frames it as important to know in terms of being able to care for others. But let’s not kid ourselves: the officialdom has been so fixated on vaccines as the one and only approach to Covid that they’ve been unwilling to concede that having gotten infected some protection.1And speaking of treatments, IM Doc, who flagged the Iverson video, in recent weeks sent along a discussion of two cases where he was certain the cause of death was remdesivir. His explanation, using one as an example:This patient although with a high BMI – had not ever had any kind of renal disease in any way but died of acute tubular necrosis – and this is almost always secondary to drug toxic effects. The patient had a CREAT of >7 – (normal being 05.-1.2). Almost assuredly killed by the remdesevir….Another patient earlier this year shared the same fate.Did COVID kill them? – No – as there is no evidence that COVID or any other respiratory virus causes this level of renal failure. And this is especially so in the absence of multiple systemic organ failure – when the heart, lungs, liver and brain appear relatively intact – the chance of COVID or any initial infection being the cause of renal failure in isolation is laughably low.But were they killed by a drug that was being used for COVID? – almost assuredly.And just try to report that to the FDA – they laugh out loud in your face. And remdesevir is known to nuke kidneys. It happens in up to 1/3 of the patients and was the cardinal reason it was suspended in Ebola. Unfortunately – it does absolutely NOTHING – for the patients – there is no benefit that I have ever been able to see – NOT EVEN ON ONE PATIENT. Almost every country on earth has realized this – and no longer use this agent – except the USA.However, Iverson makes the mistake of treating mild and asymptomatic cases, particularly among the young, as inconsequential. For starters, an estimated 20% of asymptomatic cases end up with long Covid.And as GM predicted, Omicron, by not being as well suited to attack the lungs and instead going over ACE2 receptors, which are all over the body, is not much reducing lungs to bloody pulp but instead can producewidespread organ damage which takes a while to manifest.
What “endemic” COVID-19 really means: Mass infection and death forever - Dr. Anthony Fauci, the Biden White House’s top medical adviser, who always has one foot planted in the quagmire of bourgeois politics, made a remarkable statement to the press during his recent appearance at the World Economic Forum’s Davos Agenda online conference. He said, “It’s an open question as to whether or not Omicron is going to be the live-virus vaccination everyone is hoping for.” Dr. Fauci’s comments were scientifically worthless and devoid of the principles that a public health official should embrace to protect the population, regardless of the political atmosphere surrounding the issue. The role of a public health official is not to sidestep the importance of the precautionary principle, which forbids the type of social “experimentation” now being unleashed on the American and world population. In the absence of a clear understanding of the long-term—or even short-term—consequences of universal infection with the Omicron variant, the task of public health is to do everything possible to protect the population, not to throw open the doors to the virus and risk a possible catastrophe. The highest goal is the protection of human life, and principled scientists must warn the population that they should protect themselves and others in their communities. Even if Omicron is less virulent than Delta in terms of its impact on a specific individual, it is far more transmissible and could well make up in volume what it lacks in potency. Mass infections will cause untold numbers of deaths that could have been prevented. Worse, such a high infection rate affords the virus the opportunity to continue mutating to more virulent or vaccine-resistant forms.Placing Fauci’s fatalism into context, internationally renowned epidemiologist Dr. Raina MacIntyre, head of the Biosecurity Program at the Kirby Institute at University of New South Wales (NSW) based in Sydney, Australia, recently observed, “Omicron is not mild. Omicron is less severe than Delta, but in NSW alone, it’s killing people at the rate of a Boeing 737 crashing every fortnight, including children and fit young people. It’s causing thousands of hospitalizations a day… Today, the anti-science movement has become mainstream, confusing and confounding the community and being propagated by politicians and health officials alike to suit their own agendas.”
Thousands March In Washington D.C. Demanding End To Vaccine Mandates - Thousands of people marched from the Washington Monument to the Lincoln Memorial Sunday in protest against COVID-19 vaccination mandates. Up to 35,000 people reportedly attended the "Defeat the Mandates" march calling for an end to vaccine mandates and passports. The protesters also demanded debate on the issue and the power of informed consent. Addressing the rally, Robert F. Kennedy Jr. made claims about manipulated PCR tests and death rate statistics. Dr.Robert Malone alleged that vaccines are not working, and that they are not completely safe. "Regarding the genetic Covid vaccines, the science is settled," the anti-mandate virologist added. Members of the white nationalist group Proud Boys were reportedly among the protestors. Last week, D.C. restricted entry at indoor facilities in the city such as restaurants, gyms, music venues and theaters only to those who are vaccinated. Similar rules are in force in many other major U.S. cities. In New York City, Los Angeles, Chicago, Minneapolis, and Boston, entry is allowed at certain establishments, such as restaurants and gyms, with proof of vaccination. Nearly a quarter of eligible American population has not yet received the first dose of Covid-19 vaccine.
Palin tests positive for COVID-19 ahead of New York Times trial -Former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin (R) tested positive for COVID-19 on Monday ahead of her defamation trial against The New York Times, Reuters reported. Palin's defamation case was set to be heard in a Manhattan federal court on Monday. She claims that the newspaper and its former editorial page editor, James Bennet, defamed her in an opinion piece. Reuters added that U.S. District Judge Jed Rakoff, who is presiding over the defamation case in Manhattan, said Palin tested positive after a rapid antigen test on Monday. He noted that "she is of course unvaccinated." Rakoff said Palin, 57, will be getting retested on Monday to determine whether her trial can proceed at the stipulated start date. He reportedly added the result was from the "at-home test whose reliability was lower than tests administered at the courthouse and required for the trial." The results will determine "whether the trial can proceed the same day or will be delayed," Rakoff said, according to the news service. However, Reuters added that "it is likely" the trial will be delayed to Feb. 3.
Kid Rock releases anti-Biden, anti-Fauci single with a 'Let's go, Brandon' chorus - Kid Rock is ripping Anthony Fauci and COVID-19 mitigation policies in a new expletive-filled anti-Biden anthem. “We the people in all we do reserve the right to scream, ‘F--- you!” the singer shouts in the song “We the People,” released Monday. Fauci, the nation’s leading infectious diseases expert, is one of several figures targeted in the tune by the controversial “All Summer Long” performer. “Wear your mask. Take your pills. Now a whole generation is mentally ill,” Kid Rock, who was born Robert Ritchie, tells listeners. The chorus of the song repeats the phrase, “Let’s go, Brandon,” which became a rallying cry of sorts among some conservative and GOP groups last year when an NBC Sports reporter said the crowd at a NASCAR race was chanting those words in support of driver Brandon Brown. The fans were actually chanting “F--- Joe Biden.” Other lyrics in the song include “COVID’s near. It’s coming to town. We gotta act quick, shut our borders down. Joe Biden does, the media embraces. Big Don does it, and they call him racist.” “Inflation’s up like the minimum wage. So it’s all the same. Not a damn thing changed,” he exclaims. The 51-year-old performer has been a vocal supporter of former President Trump. In 2017, he posed for photos in the Oval Office with Trump alongside 2012 GOP vice presidential nominee Sarah Palin and singer Ted Nugent.
Spotify Takes Down Neil Young’s Music After His Joe Rogan Ultimatum – WSJ - Spotify Technology SA has removed Neil Young’s music, the company confirmed Wednesday, as the folk-rock star isn’t wavering in his objections to Joe Rogan’s podcast.The “Heart of Gold” and “Harvest Moon” singer earlier this week penned an open letter to his manager and label asking them to remove his music from the service, saying it is spreading fake information about Covid-19 vaccines through Mr. Rogan’s show. “They can have Rogan or Young. Not both,” he wrote.Mr. Young’s record label, Warner MusicGroup Corp.’s Warner Records, formally requested Spotify remove the music Wednesday.“We want all the world’s music and audio content to be available to Spotify users. With that comes great responsibility in balancing both safety for listeners and freedom for creators,” a Spotify spokesman said Wednesday. The company has detailed content policies in place and has removed over 20,000 Covid-19-related podcast episodes since the start of the pandemic, he added.“We regret Neil’s decision to remove his music from Spotify, but hope to welcome him back soon,” he said. For Spotify, the controversy is a significant test of its big bet on Mr. Rogan, one of podcasting’s most popular and polarizing voices. Spotify struck a deal with Mr. Rogan in 2020 worth more than $100 million, according to people familiar with the matter, bringing his loyal followers and lucrative show exclusively to its service. Mr. Rogan is central to Spotify’s podcast strategy in attracting listeners and ad dollars to its platform and shows. While the letter has since been removed from Mr. Young’s website, he has been in discussions with his label and Spotify since then, and continued to hold his ground, according to people familiar with the matter.
The Saker Interviews Michael Hudson -Yves here. Michel Hudson, in this short talk with The Saker, debunks many widespread misperceptions about the dollar, the US economy, and the prospects for fundamental change.I have only a couple of teeny quibbles and a further thought. Hudson discusses private equity buying up single family homes. While that was a very big trend during and after the foreclosure crisis, there’s also been a rise, and not just in big cities, of mom and pop investors buying apartments and homes to rent out on AirBnB. So in recent years, I’m not sure the level of investment buying by private equity is collectively all that much greater than that of well-heeled individuals. We pointed out that private equity had a big problem with single family homes that property management does not scale. In fact, an individual living near their properties (better yet, with a family member in one of the trades or construction) would be able to manage the properties at lower cost than private equity.The second is I differ a bit on his take that the response of US citizens to falling living standards and rising disfunction will be apathy. That is likely to be the main response, but you will also see more and more incidents of violence. We are already witnessing more shootings of fast food workers and commuters being shoved in front of subway cars. Expect more of that sort of thing…which serves to justify more bunkering of the elites.Hudson also describes how indebted many individuals are. The Fed’s consumer debt statistics show that mortgage and credit card debt is not excessive. However, what these analyses miss is what would be called greater operating leverage, by virtue of other fixed costs that may not be in the form of debt but like debt, can’t be defaulted on without serious consequences.In good old corporate land, to do proper apples to apples analysis of debt levels of companies, you need to capitalize operating leases (like the lease costs on sale-leasebacks of corporate real estate) because those fixed charges are effectively debt. The analogue for households is medical costs. At a minimum, medical insurance costs have gotten to be so high that they should be capitalized so as to present a more accurate picture of household obligations and their true free cash flow.
Alex Jones says he invoked Fifth Amendment 'almost 100 times' before Jan. 6 panel -Right-wing radio host Alex Jones on Tuesday claimed to have followed through with his plan to invoke the Fifth Amendment during his deposition with the House Select Committee investigating Jan. 6, 2021, saying he he pled the Fifth "almost 100 times." Speaking on his radio show, Jones said the remote deposition was "interesting" and characterized the questions that were asked as "pretty reasonable." "And I wanted to answer the questions. But at the same time, it's a good thing I didn't," Jones said, according to NBC News. According to Jones, his lawyer "told me almost 100 times today during the interrogation, 'on advice of counsel I am asserting my Fifth Amendment right to remain silent.'" "And the media tells you that's because you're guilty, or because you're going to incriminate yourself but it's also just because it can be used to try to incriminate you and twist something against you," he added. The Hill has reached out to the Jan. 6 committee for comment. The panel subpoenaed Jones, along with others, in November, seeking information about the rallies and march on the Capitol that proceeded the attack on the building that day. Jones spoke at rallies on both Jan. 5 and 6 and facilitated a donation to provide what he described as “80 percent” of the funding for the rally near the White House on Jan. 6.
Mark Zuckerberg's botched cryptocurrency project is reportedly for sale - Mark Zuckerberg's ambitious plan to build his own cryptocurrency is falling apart, amid growing pressure from regulators. The Diem Association, which oversees development of the Diem digital currency, is considering a sale of its assets, in order to return capital to its investors, according to a Bloomberg report released Wednesday morning. A spokesperson for the Diem Association declined to comment. Facebook's parent company, Meta, did not respond to a request for comment. Diem is reportedly in talks now with investment bankers about next steps, including how to sell its intellectual property, in an effort to capture whatever value is left. Sources speaking to Bloomberg say that the company is also trying to find a new destination for the engineers who developed this technology. Discussions are apparently still in early stages, and there is no guarantee that Diem will find a buyer. Even if it does, the report noted that it is unclear how it would set a value on the project's intellectual property, or the engineers who developed it. One of the people speaking to Bloomberg under condition of anonymity says that Meta owns about a third of the venture, and the remainder is owned by association members, such as Andreessen Horowitz, Union Square Ventures and Ribbit Capital. Zuckerberg's beleaguered crypto project has been stymied by drama since it was first announced in June 2019. At the time, the cryptocurrency was called Libra, and it was initially conceived of as a stablecoin, which is a specific subset of cryptocurrencies that have a value pegged to a real-world asset, such as a fiat currency like the U.S. dollar or a commodity like gold. In the case of Zuckerberg's stablecoin, the initial plan was to launch a universal currency tied to a basket of major currencies and government debt. The project was instantly met with hostility from central bankers and politicians, who feared it might facilitate nefarious activities such as money laundering and privacy infringement, as well as prove a formidable rival to sovereign currencies like the U.S. dollar. In the wake of regulatory backlash, the embattled project pivoted to the concept of launching multiple stablecoins, each of which would be pegged to a fiat currency, plus one multicurrency coin. Ultimately, the vision for the cryptocurrency was slimmed down to a U.S. dollar-backed stablecoin known as Diem USD. The project itself has also followed a somewhat convoluted chain of ownership and suffered an exodus of corporate partners and top-level executives. It also once had the backing of multiple partners, but as the Meta chief headed to Capitol Hill to defend the project, key backers like Visa, Mastercard and PayPal abandoned the project. In November of last year, David Marcus, the head of Meta's cryptocurrency efforts, announced that he, too, would be leaving.
Crypto Crash: Market Now Braced For A Game-Changing White House Executive Order As Price Of Bitcoin And Ethereum Collapse -- Bitcoin and cryptocurrency prices have crashed over the past week with around $1.4 trillion wiped from the combined crypto market—and sparking warnings of a new "crypto winter." The bitcoin price dropped under $33,000 per bitcoin this week, down more than 50% from its November peak. Ethereum, the second-largest cryptocurrency by value, has crashed to $2,300 per ether, down from almost $5,000 late last year (amid serious ethereum price warnings).Now, reports have emerged the White House is gearing up to issue a cryptocurrency executive order—with president Joe Biden reportedly set to ask federal agencies to determine crypto risks and opportunities. The executive order, which could be signed by Biden as soon as next month, would "put the White House at the center of Washington’s efforts to deal with cryptocurrencies," it was reported by Bloomberg, citing anonymous sources familiar with the matter. The executive order is expected to outline economic, regulatory and national security challenges posed by cryptocurrencies and would call for reports from various agencies due in the second half of 2022—potentially looking at the systemic risks of cryptocurrencies and their illicit uses."U.S. president Biden is readying an executive order that will outline a comprehensive government strategy around cryptocurrencies and will ask Federal agencies to determine their risks and opportunities," analysts at digital asset market maker GSR wrote in a market update, warning that bitcoin and ethereum's "weak performance has been attributed to a general sell-off in risk assets.""Other items causing investor concern include rising inflation and central bank policy accommodation removal, mounting speculation that Russia may invade Ukraine, omicron worries, and supply chain disruptions."Government agencies and regulators have been struggling to get a handle on the fast-growing crypto market over the last year, with the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC), the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) all attempting to direct how different aspects of the crypto industry should comply with federal law. Last year, SEC chair Gary Gensler called on Congress to give the agency more authority to better police cryptocurrency trading.
Melania Trump auctions off her hat, and has become the latest victim of the cryptocurrency crash -- Melania Trump began 2022 by announcing she'd be auctioning off a hat, along with two other items, for the low, low starting bid of $250,000. Her website, MelaniaTrump.com, allowed the bids only to be made in cryptocurrency. Remember this. This will be important. She called the auction the "Head of State" collection. It included the custom-made, wide-brimmed white hat she'd worn to meet French President Emmanuel Macron and his wife, Brigitte, during the Trumps' first state visit at the White House in April 2018 - autographed - plus a watercolor of Trump in the hat, and a non-fungible token, or NFT, depicting the image. One year after leaving the White House, Melania Trump is remaking herself as an entrepreneur. In a vast departure from previous first ladies - but in keeping with her business trajectory before her husband became president, when she licensed her name to jewelry and skin care lines - she is reviving her personal brand for monetary gain. That plan, though, has an unexpected gum in the works: the massive cryptocurrency crash. When The Washington Post checked the hat auction exactly two days before its indeterminate ending time (advertised as Tuesday at 11:59 p.m. PST, although a countdown clock on the website ran 24 hours faster than that), the starting bid had dropped to $155,916, and continued to fluctuate around that level. At an earlier point in the 14-day auction, the bids had reached more than $275,000. But the auction was only accepting bids in cryptocurrency, which has taken a nosedive in the last week, with bitcoin falling 20% and Ethereum 30%. Melania Trump's hat auction may have become unlikely collateral damage in the crisis, a prime example of what happens when risk-taking intersects with terrible timing. The only cryptocurrency accepted on Trump's website is Solana (SOL), which has been one of the hardest-hit, falling more than 40% over the previous week. The Solana blockchain (a distributed database that stores a secure and decentralized record of digital transactions) also had an outage on Friday and Saturday, further adding to its free fall. Had this auction taken place in December 2021, Trump would have been accepting bids in Solana during a surge in which its value had increased 11,150% since the beginning of the year. Instead, in a bizarre turn of events - or perhaps series of technical glitches - Trump's auction appeared to close early Tuesday morning (a day earlier than advertised on the website) with the hat and its lot going for $160,218, or around $90,000 below the asking price. The site read "Auction Ended" for five hours, and then the next time The Post checked, bidding had reopened. As of 2:15 a.m. Eastern time, the highest bid is still 1,800 SOL, as it has been for days, but with a value of $177,750.
Democrats press cryptomining companies on energy consumption - Eight Democratic members of Congress on Thursday wrote to major cryptocurrency-mining companies for information on their energy usage and its potential effects on climate change. The House and Senate members noted that estimates of the power consumption associated with bitcoin increased more than threefold between 2019 and 2021. The energy consumption is roughly equivalent to that of Washington state or the entire nation of Denmark, according to a September 2021 analysis by The New York Times. Members who signed the letter included Democratic Sens. Elizabeth Warren (Mass.), Sheldon Whitehouse (R.I.), Jeff Merkley (Ore.) and Maggie Hassan (N.H.), as well as Democratic Reps. Katie Porter (Calif.), Rashida Tlaib (Mich.) and Jared Huffman (Calif.). Copies of the letter were sent to six mining companies, including Riot Blockchain, Marathon Digital Holdings, Stronghold Digital Mining, Bitdeer, Bitfury Group and Bit Digital. Recent crackdowns on cryptocurrency mining by the Chinese government will likely lead to increased concentration of operations, and the associated carbon emissions, within North America. In addition to those emissions, the lawmakers expressed concerns at reports of associated energy cost increases. One recent study estimated upstate New York mining operations led to an increase of about $79 million in annual electric costs for individual consumers and $165 million for small businesses. “Given the extraordinarily high energy usage and carbon emissions associated with Bitcoin mining, mining operations raise concerns about their impacts on the global environment, local ecosystems, and consumer electricity costs,” the lawmakers wrote. “States like Texas with relatively cheap electricity costs are experiencing an influx of cryptomining companies, raising concerns about the state’s unreliable electricity market and the potential for cryptomining to add to the stress on the state’s power grid.” In addition to the annual electricity consumption at each of the recipients’ facilities, they asked for information about plans to scale operations, purchasing agreements with electricity providers, and whether the companies had any estimates of impacts on local energy costs.
A Fake Twitter Account Was Set Up in Our Name; Here’s What Happened Next - By Pam Martens and Russ Martens: January 26, 2022 ~ Wall Street On Parade has the following business model: we focus our attention on research and bringing important facts and news about Wall Street and its perpetual sugar daddy, the Fed, to our readers. If our readers feel these articles deserve a wider circulation, we encourage them to link to them on their own social media pages. This spares us the downtime of engaging on social media, thus giving us more time for research. This business model has worked well for us for a decade.On January 14 we were doing research for an upcoming article when we accidentally stumbled upon a Twitter page called @wallstonparade. It was using our full trademarked name, “Wall Street On Parade,” and displaying our copyright. It was also using our slogan: “A Citizen Guide to Wall Street” and posting sections of our daily articles. Fortunately, and through simply a stroke of luck (or divine intervention) we caught it after only a few days of operation.We were stunned that someone was brazen enough to think they could get away with the illegal use of a trademarked name. We were further stunned that Twitter didn’t have a system of due diligence to prevent this from happening.We did some quick research at Twitter and learned that they allow fan sites, as long as strict rules were followed. Those rules included stating emphatically on the Twitter page that you are not the real owner of the name or trademark. This Twitter page seemed to be going out of its way to represent itself as the actual Wall Street On Parade.We immediately filed a complaint form for trademark infringement with Twitter, supplying all of the requested documentation and proof of ownership. We received an automated response on the same day, January 14, giving us a ticket number for our complaint. A week later, the fake Twitter page was still happily rolling along, violating our trademark and Tweeting out our content. At one point, it even re-Tweeted content from another Twitter user, giving the impression that Wall Street On Parade was endorsing this user.At another point, a Twitter user replied: “Didn’t know the Martens were on here. Nice.” This indicated that, indeed, our identities had been purloined. The person or persons who had set up the Twitter page made no effort, whatsoever, to explain that they were not the actual Martens. On January 20, we emailed four executives at Twitter, providing the same documentation that we had provided in the complaint form. We received no response. Our content continued to be posted daily on this fake site with no action being taken by Twitter. On January 24, we sent individual, overnight letters with signature confirmations requested to Twitter CEO Parag Agrawal and each member of his Board of Directors at their own place of business. Since Twitter is located in San Francisco, which is three hours earlier than East Coast time, we thought we might receive a phone call with a profuse apology yesterday afternoon or evening. No such call came. The fake site, however, was deactivated yesterday.
The world's 5 richest tech tycoons — including Elon Musk, Jeff Bezos, and Bill Gates — have already lost about $85 billion this year amid a brutal market sell-off - The world's five richest tech tycoons have collectively lost about $85 billion of their wealth in the first few weeks of 2022, with their fortunes taking an especially big hit from last week's market sell-off.The losses sent the fortune of the world's richest person, Elon Musk, down to an estimated $243 billion — some $27 billion lower than at the start of the year, according to the Bloomberg Billionaires Index. It's also nearly $100 billion lower than November, when Musk's net worth peaked at $335 billion.The world's second-richest person, Amazon's founder, Jeff Bezos, has lost about $25 billion in 2022.The Microsoft cofounder Bill Gates has seen a $9.5 billion drop in his net worth since January 1, per the Bloomberg index, while the Google cofounder Larry Page's net worth has decreased by $12 billion. Rounding out the losses is Facebook's Mark Zuckerberg, whose net worth has also dropped by about $12 billion this year.All five saw losses in their tech stock holdings. Last week, the benchmark tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite fell about 8% on the back of several concerns including rising interest rates and inflation. The Nasdaq is down about 13% this year.According to Bloomberg, the only one of the world's five wealthiest people who didn't lose money last week was Bernard Arnault, the chairman and CEO of the French luxury giant LVMH. Even so, Arnault's wealth is down $10.5 billion this year, with LVMH share prices down 5% amid a broader market rout.Here's how the world's six wealthiest people were faring on the Bloomberg Billionaires Index as of Monday:
Elon Musk offered teen $5K to shut down Twitter account tracking his private flights: report - Tesla CEO Elon Musk offered $5,000 to a 19-year-old to shut down a Twitter account that tracks his private flights, the teenager told Protocol. Jack Sweeney runs 15 flight-tracking accounts using a bot he created that automatically posts when a celebrity’s flight leaves or lands at an airport. Sweeney’s account tracking Musk’s flights has the most followers, with more than 97,000, and its popularity led Musk to send a direct message to Sweeney. “I don’t love the idea of being shot by a nutcase,” Musk said in the message, offering $5,000 for Sweeney to take it down, according to Protocol. “Any chance to up that to $50k? It would be great support in college and would possibly allow me to get a car maybe even a Model 3,” Sweeney responded back. The last exchange between Musk and Sweeney occurred a week ago, when Sweeney said he would delete the account for no money if Musk gave him an internship. The teenager said Musk has not opened the message yet. Sweeny explained to Musk how he was able to find publicly available data regarding his private jet to create an algorithm that automatically posts the status of Musk's plane on Twitter. Although the status of Musk's flights is public information, only those will high knowledge of the industry would understand where to find it, according to Protocol.
U.S. bank stocks trapped in longest losing streak in a year --U.S. bank stocks are headed for their worst losing streak in a year, burning investors who bought shares on expectations that the Federal Reserve raising rates for the first time since 2018 would boost the sector. The KBW Bank Index fell as much as 3.8% on Monday, extending its recent slump to a sixth consecutive day since hitting a record high earlier this month, its longest run of losses since January 2021. Over that stretch, the gauge has declined more than 12% to fall into correction territory and has fallen below its 200-day moving average for the second time in two months. “While we aren’t attempting to call a market bottom, we do view at least a substantial portion of the recent selloff in financial stocks as transitory, and largely fear-based as investors prepare for the Fed to raise interest rates and wonder whether it will negatively impact the economy,” said KBW analyst Christopher McGratty.
Insurance Companies Note Jump In Death Payouts Amid 40% Rise Among Prime-Age Americans - Insurance companies are reporting a jump in death payouts due to a dramatic rise in the number of deaths. The rise in the death rate is being corroborated by death certificate data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). The death rate is up by 40 percent from pre-pandemic levels according to Scott Davison, chief executive of OneAmerica, a major insurance company based in Indianapolis. During an online news conference on Dec. 30, 2021, Davison said the change was unprecedented.“We are seeing, right now, the highest death rates we have seen in the history of this business,” he said. OneAmerica sells life insurance to employers nationwide, and similar figures are found throughout the industry.“The data is consistent across every player in that business,” Davison said. “And what we saw just in the third quarter—we’re seeing it continue into the fourth quarter—is that death rates are up 40 percent over what they were pre-pandemic. Just to give you an idea of how bad that is, a three-sigma or a one-in-200-year catastrophe would be a 10 percent increase over pre-pandemic. So 40 percent is just unheard of.”This 40 percent figure doesn’t represent folks dying of old age, but is instead a reflection of deaths in working-age adults, aged 18 to 65. However, what’s responsible for the alarming spike in fatalities in this age group isn’t clear.With all of the concern about COVID-19 lately, the contagion seems a likely choice. But according to Davison, something else is at play. He said the data coming from insurance companies—entities in the business of paying out when people die—show that the deaths being reported as COVID-19 fatalities “greatly understate” the actual deaths from working age people hit by the pandemic, as most of the claims being filed aren’t being classified as COVID-19 deaths. “It may not all be COVID on their death certificate, but deaths are up just huge, huge numbers,” he said.
Wall Street millionaire Jeff Zients directs Biden’s policy of mass death - At least 463,000 Americans have now died from COVID-19 under the Biden administration, more than under Trump, and over 48 million people have been infected with the virus also under Biden. According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), 1,150 children have succumbed to the virus in the US, the vast majority over the past year as this administration has ruthlessly demanded fully in-person classes at all schools. The ongoing surge of the highly infectious Omicron variant has officially infected nearly 23 million Americans since December 15, including over 3.2 million children. COVID-19 hospitalizations are now at record levels, with over 21,000 people hospitalized with the virus every day despite the wide availability of vaccines. Over the past week, the country averaged over 2,000 deaths per day. At a press conference on January 19, only his second since becoming president, Biden refused to acknowledge this horrific reality or the untold number of deaths to come from the Omicron surge. Instead, he absurdly claimed that “remarkable progress” has been made on the pandemic and that the US is now in a “better place.” Over the past two months, since the World Health Organization (WHO) designated Omicron a “variant of concern,” a pronounced shift has taken place in the response of the Biden administration to the pandemic. With the full backing of the corporate media, all pretense of seeking to minimize infections or even stop the pandemic through mitigation measures has been dropped, with a de facto adoption of the eugenicist “herd immunity” strategy based on letting the virus rip through society unchecked. Alongside Biden, the most powerful figure responsible for this shift and the overall US response to the pandemic is Jeff Zients, the White House Coronavirus Response Coordinator and Counselor to the President. Rarely appearing on national television or quoted in the print media, he is perhaps the least known person whose actions have devastated millions of working class and middle class families throughout the US and internationally during the pandemic. Despite being vested with the power to use the Defense Production Act, previously reserved only for the president, until the past month Zients has refused to provide the American population with free rapid tests, high quality masks and other tools to fight the pandemic. Instead, he has allowed the market to determine supply and prices, until finally agreeing in recent weeks to distribute a very limited number of masks and rapid tests, most of which will not arrive until after the peak of the Omicron surge. Zients was appointed by Biden to head the COVID Response Team despite having no background in medicine or public health. He is a finance capitalist and a pandemic profiteer, directly benefitting from the CARES Act bailout that inflated the value of his investment funds and stock shares. Zients’s personal wealth grew by between $10.4 million and $28 million in 2020 alone, and he has the largest net worth of any Biden administration official, estimated to be between $89.3 million and $442.8 million in assets, including investment funds, real estate properties and cash shares. He represents the nexus between the corporate-financial elite and the “top scientists,” including CDC Director Dr. Rochelle Walensky and Dr. Anthony Fauci. Throughout the past year, Zients has been the most vocal opponent of lockdown measures and has played a key role in the lifting of mask mandates, anti-scientific policies which are provided a veneer of legitimacy by Drs. Walensky and Fauci.
Crypto, CRA, data sharing: Bank regulators’ ambitious priorities for 2022 - Federal financial regulators are preparing to dramatically reshape several major banking rules and create others, filling the policymaking void left by a bitterly divided Congress.In the absence of congressional action, they’re moving quickly on a number of fronts, from providing guidance on digital currencies to more strictly scrutinizing bank mergers to modernizing the Community Reinvestment Act. Regulators in some cases are seizing the opportunity to fulfill the Biden administration’s liberal agenda even in the face of massive pushback from industry.The top financial regulatory agencies have, or will soon have, new Democratic appointees eager to make their mark. Once Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. Chair Jelena McWilliams, a Trump administration appointee, steps down in February, Democrats will fully control the agency’s board. The new director of the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau and the acting comptroller of the currency are Democrats, too. Meanwhile, President Biden recently announced three nominations to fill out the remainder of the Federal Reserve Board. One of the highest–profile efforts is the Fed’s exploration of the feasibility of a central bank digital currency. Regarding mergers and acquisitions, some regulators want more thorough consideration of community impact and systemic risk when weighing applications for larger deals — the very threat of which could have a chilling effect on combinations involving big regional banks. In addition, regulators are plowing ahead to update CRA rules in light of the rise of digital banking, establish rules around climate-change risk and give consumers’ more control of their personal financial data. Here is a look at the issues regulators are seeking to address this year.
- Stablecoins and crypto regulation: Congress has dragged bank regulators to Capitol Hill more than a few times over the past several months to press them on the financial risks of emerging cryptocurrencies and stablecoins. Regulators, for their part, issued a report in November noting how helpful it would be if Congress introduced a regulatory framework for stablecoins. But there’s little indication that lawmakers will enact significant crypto legislation anytime in the near future, leaving the ball in regulators’ court. The Federal Reserve, led by Chair Jerome Powell, has largely sought to assure Congress and the private sector that the agency would not ban crypto outright, and the central bank has only recently begun exploring the potential ramifications of an official “digital dollar.” At the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency, acting Comptroller Michael Hsu (a former Fed official) has frequently discussed the potential risks that crypto poses for national banks and in November issued an interpretive letter instructing them to “not engage” in crypto-related activities without “written notification of the OCC supervisory office’s nonobjection.”
- Merger reviews: Tougher scrutiny of bank mergers has been a top priority for the White House since July, and Democrats’ assumption of control of the federal banking agencies means that effort will likely influence banking policy. Advocates on the right and left have urged the federal regulators for years to update the process that they use to evaluate the impact of a potential bank merger. While the financial services industry has asked that the antitrust analysis of their potential deals better incorporate the competition posed by credit unions and fintechs, progressives have argued that current merger review is far too lenient and fails to account for community access to credit as well as what risks a merger may pose to the financial system’s stability.
- Climate-change risk: Regulatory efforts to address the financial system’s vulnerabilities to climate change are expected to accelerate this year. The Securities and Exchange Commission is working on a climate-risk disclosure rule for publicly traded companies. And the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency recently outlined its expectations for how national banks with over $100 billion of assets should manage climate risk. In draft principles released in December, the OCC recommended that banks identify relevant climate risks for their organization and incorporate those risks into internal risk management processes.
Banks handed new ESG reporting requirements by U.K. watchdog -Europe is imposing new requirements on how banks report environmental risks and carbon targets, to give investors a better picture of the threats that climate change poses to the industry. The European Banking Authority has unveiled a new set of mandatory templates, tables and instructions that banks will have to follow, after a review of environmental, social and governance (ESG) reports found “shortcomings,” the Paris-based EBA said on Monday. The new rules give banks far less leeway to cherry pick what to disclose or to use exaggerated language to describe what they’re doing, the regulator said. High voltage electricity power lines near cooling towers at the Jaenschwalde lignite-fired power station near Peitz, Germany, on Thursday, Oct. 28, 2021. Krisztian Bocsi/Bloomberg “It’s important that stakeholders will soon have access to more information which is fully comparable and more transparent on the ESG issues,” Meri Rimmanen, director of data analytics, reporting and transparency, said in an interview. Disclosure of voluntary targets will signal “the level of ambition of banks’ transition plans toward more sustainable economy.”
Virginia bank deal, dogged by regulatory concerns, is called off -A Virginia bank merger that was delayed last year over regulatory concerns has been called off.FVCBankcorp in Fairfax and Blue Ridge Bankshares in Charlottesville have agreed to terminate their deal, which was announced in July 2021, the companies said Thursday.The deal, billed as a merger of equals, would have created a $5 billion-asset bank with a foothold in the Northern Virginia market. It was initially expected to close in the first quarter of 2022.
Tesla files countersuit against JPMorgan in warrants dispute -- Tesla countersued JPMorgan Chase over a suit the bank filed last year seeking a $162 million payment related to a series of stock warrant transactions. The automaker said in a complaint in federal court in New York on Monday that JPMorgan took advantage of an August 2018 tweet by Elon Musk to reduce the strike price of more than 1.9 million warrants it acquired on Tesla shares in 2014. Tesla called JPMorgan’s suit a “cynical” attempt to reap a windfall from the deal. JPMorgan denied Tesla’s claims in a statement. “There is no merit to their claim,” a representative for the bank said. “This comes down to fulfilling contractual obligations.”
Consumer protections should apply to buy now/pay later firms, too | American Banker op ed - Americans have always loved the convenience of instant gratification, from the advent of fast food to the creation of Amazon Prime and same-day delivery. This is especially true for millennials like me. So, it shouldn’t come as a surprise the modern-day “layaway you get to have right away” — known as buy now/pay later — is taking the nation by storm, with 40% of consumers indicating they used at least one BNPL product this past holiday shopping season.As a growing share of consumers use short-term installment credit to make purchases, it’s clear the added convenience these products provide could also bring heightened risk to consumers without the proper protections in place. For that very reason, just last month, the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau announcedit would look into some of the biggest BNPL credit providers — financial technology companies, or fintechs — stating, “Some BNPL companies may not be adequately evaluating what consumer protection laws apply to their products.”
CFPB launches broad review of consumer banking fees - Rohit Chopra, the director of the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, has launched a broad review of fees charged by banks, credit unions, mortgage lenders and fintechs as part of an effort to spur more competition for financial services. Chopra said Wednesday that in many cases total fees exceeded the financial institutions' cost of providing the underlying service, an indication that companies aren't just passing on costs to consumers but are taking advantage of a captive relationship to increase profits. Chopra specifically called out banks for collecting billions in revenue each year by charging so-called “junk fees” that include penalties for late payments, nonsufficient funds and account maintenance. "We are beginning the process of breaking banks’ reliance on these exploitative income streams and making prices and features clear upfront,” CFPB Director Rohit Chopra said in describing his review of so-called "junk fees" charged to consumers.
How much control should people have over their financial data? -- When you click “I agree” on a website, or on an app on your phone, do you really know what you’re agreeing to? If you’re like most people, you don’t. And those little afterthought agreements could be handing companies and third parties reams of real-time financial data — information that in the past was only stored at their bank. Whether it’s to create a budget, get a better handle on managing their finances or try to improve their credit score, consumers are opting for digital applications and giving permission every day to a wide range of companies that gather, analyze, store — and sell — transaction data from their bank accounts.
Freddie Mac: Mortgage Serious Delinquency Rate decreased in December - Freddie Mac reported that the Single-Family serious delinquency rate in December was 1.12%, down from 1.24% in November. Freddie's rate is down year-over-year from 2.64% in December 2020. Freddie's serious delinquency rate peaked in February 2010 at 4.20% following the housing bubble and peaked at 3.17% in August 2020 during the pandemic. These are mortgage loans that are "three monthly payments or more past due or in foreclosure". Mortgages in forbearance are being counted as delinquent in this monthly report but are not reported to the credit bureaus. This is very different from the increase in delinquencies following the housing bubble. Lending standards have been fairly solid over the last decade, and most of these homeowners have equity in their homes - and they will be able to restructure their loans once (if) they are employed. Also - for multifamily - delinquencies were at 0.08%, down from the peak of 0.20% in April 2021.
Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey - Mortgage applications decreased 7.1 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending January 21, 2022.... The Refinance Index decreased 13 percent from the previous week and was 53 percent lower than the same week one year ago. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 2 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index increased 5 percent compared with the previous week and was 11 percent lower than the same week one year ago.“All mortgage rates in MBA’s survey continued to climb, with the 30-year fixed rate rising for the fifth consecutive week to its highest level since March 2020. The 30-year fixed rate is now 77 basis points higher than it was a year ago,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s Associate Vice President of Economic and Industry Forecasting. “Unsurprisingly, borrower demand for refinances subsided, with applications falling for the fourth straight week. After almost two years of lower rates, there are not many borrowers left who have an incentive to refinance. Of those who are still in the market for a refinance, these higher rates are proving much less attractive to them.”Added Kan, “The decline in purchase activity was led by a 5 percent drop in government applications, compared to a modest less than one percent decline in conventional applications. The relative weakness in government purchase activity continues to contribute to higher loan sizes. The average purchase loan size was $433,500, eclipsing the previous record of $418,500 set two weeks ago.”...The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($647,200 or less) increased to 3.72 percent from 3.64 percent, with points decreasing to 0.43 from 0.45 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value ratio (LTV) loans.
Case-Shiller: National House Price Index increased 18.8% year-over-year in November - S&P/Case-Shiller released the monthly Home Price Indices for November ("November" is a 3-month average of September, October and November prices).This release includes prices for 20 individual cities, two composite indices (for 10 cities and 20 cities) and the monthly National index. From S&P: S&P Corelogic Case-Shiller Index Reports 18.8% Annual Home Price Gain in November The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, covering all nine U.S. census divisions, reported an 18.8% annual gain in November, down from 19.0% in the previous month. The 10-City Composite annual increase came in at 16.8%, down from 17.2% in the previous month. The 20- City Composite posted an 18.3% year-over-year gain, down from 18.5% in the previous month.Phoenix, Tampa, and Miami reported the highest year-over-year gains among the 20 cities in November. Phoenix led the way with a 32.2% year-over-year price increase, followed by Tampa with a 29.0% increase and Miami with a 26.6% increase. Eleven of the 20 cities reported higher price increases in the year ending November 2021 versus the year ending October 2021....Before seasonal adjustment, the U.S. National Index posted a 0.9% month-over-month increase in November, while the 10-City and 20-City Composites posted increases of 0.9% and 1.0%, respectively.After seasonal adjustment, the U.S. National Index posted a month-over-month increase of 1.1%, and the 10-City and 20-City Composites posted increases of 1.1% and 1.2%, respectively. In November, 19 of the 20 cities reported increases before seasonal adjustments while all 20 cities reported increases after seasonal adjustments. “For the past several months, home prices have been rising at a very high, but decelerating, rate. That trend continued in November 2021,” The first graph shows the nominal seasonally adjusted Composite 10, Composite 20 and National indices (the Composite 20 was started in January 2000). The National index is 48% above the bubble peak (SA), and up 1.1% (SA) in November. The National index is up 102% from the post-bubble low set in February 2012 (SA). The second graph shows the year-over-year change in all three indices.The National index SA is up 18.8% year-over-year. Price increases were close to expectations
Housing Inventory January 24th Update: Inventory Down 2.4% Week-over-week; New Record Low -Tracking existing home inventory is very important in 2022. Inventory usually declines in the winter, and this is a new record low for this series.This inventory graph is courtesy of Altos Research. As of January 21st, inventory was at 277 thousand (7-day average), compared to 380 thousand for the same week a year ago. That is a decline of 27.1%. A week ago, inventory was at 284 thousand, and was down 28.6% YoY. So, the YoY decline was less this week than last week (something to watch).Inventory was down 2.4% from the previous week.Compared to the same week in 2020, inventory is down 62.4% from 736 thousand.Last year, seasonally, inventory bottomed in April 2021 - very late - usually inventory bottoms in January or February. An early key in 2022 will be to watch if inventory bottoms in January or February this year. Mike Simonsen discusses this data regularly on Youtube.
NAR: Pending Home Sales Decreased 3.8% in December From the NAR: Pending Home Sales Slide 3.8% in December: Pending home sales fell in December, denoting two straight months of declines, according to the National Association of Realtors®. All four major U.S. regions posted both month-over-month and year-over-year drops in contract activity.The Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI), a forward-looking indicator of home sales based on contract signings, fell 3.8% to 117.7 in December. Year-over-year, transactions decreased 6.9%. An index of 100 is equal to the level of contract activity in 2001....Month-over-month, the Northeast PHSI fell 1.2% to 98.2 in December, a 10.5% decline from a year ago. In the Midwest, the index dropped 3.7% to 112.8 last month, down 1.2% from December 2020.Pending home sales transactions in the South slid 1.8% to an index of 145.2 in December, down 3.9% from December 2020. The index in the West decreased 10.0% in December to 95.0, down 16.2% from a year prior. This was well below expectations of a 0.3% increase for this index. Note: Contract signings usually lead sales by about 45 to 60 days, so this would usually be for closed sales in January and February.
New Home Sales increase to 811,000 Annual Rate in December; Sales down 7.3% in 2021 - The Census Bureau reports New Home Sales in December were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 744 thousand. The previous three months were revised down, combined. Sales of new single‐family houses in December 2021 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 811,000, according to estimates released jointly today by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. This is 11.9 percent above the revised November rate of 725,000, but is 14.0 percent below the December 2020 estimate of 943,000.An estimated 762,000 new homes were sold in 2021. This is 7.3 percent below the 2020 figure of 822,000. The first graph shows New Home Sales vs. recessions since 1963. The dashed line is the current sales rate.New home sales are now declining year-over-year since sales soared following the first few months of the pandemic.The second graph shows New Home Months of Supply.The months of supply decreased in December to 6.0 months from 6.6 months in November.The all-time record high was 12.1 months of supply in January 2009. The all-time record low was 3.5 months, most recently in October 2020.This is at the top of the normal range (about 4 to 6 months of supply is normal)."The seasonally‐adjusted estimate of new houses for sale at the end of December was 403,000. This represents a supply of 6.0 months at the current sales rate."The last graph shows sales NSA (monthly sales, not seasonally adjusted annual rate).In December 2021 (red column), 57 thousand new homes were sold (NSA). Last year, 61 thousand homes were sold in December.The all-time high for December was 87 thousand in 2005, and the all-time low for December was 23 thousand in 2010.This was above expectations of 760 thousand SAAR, however sales in the three previous months were revised down, combined.
December New Home Sales: Inventory of homes under construction highest since 2007 - Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: December New Home Sales: Inventory of homes under construction highest since 2007 Brief excerpt: The next graph shows new home sales for 2020 and 2021 by month (Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate). Sales in 2021 (762 thousand) were 7.3% below sales in 2020 (822 thousand).The year-over-year comparisons were easy in the first half of 2021 - especially in March and April. However, sales will be down year-over-year again in January since the sales were delayed in 2020 - and sales in the winter were strong....The next graph shows the months of supply by stage of construction. “Months of supply” is inventory at each stage, divided by the sales rate. The inventory of completed homes for sale was at 39 thousand in December, up from the record low of 33 thousand in March, April, May and July 2021. That is about 0.6 months of completed supply (red line). This is about half the normal level. The inventory of new homes under construction is at 3.9 months (blue line) - well above the normal level. This elevated level of homes under construction is due to supply chain constraints. And 101 thousand homes have not been started - about 1.5 months of supply (grey line) - almost double the normal level.
Surging Prices Forced Increasingly Desperate Millennials To Compromise On Their Dream Home, Survey Finds - The latest data on US home sales (released this past week) showed that demand for existing homes surged to a 15-year-high in 2021 (leaving it at the highest level since 2006, the peak of the pre-crisis housing bubble). That probably doesn't come as a surprise to anybody who has been paying attention to the news over this past year.With the housing market seemingly more competitive than at any other time in recent memory, an entire generation of Americans - the much-maligned millennials - has seemingly been put at a disadvantage. And a recent survey from Real Estate Witch found that wannabe millennial homeowners are growing increasingly desperate.The survey found that millennials would be willing to take risks, including buying a home sight unseen, just to have a chance at ownership in a market that's clearly overheating.Fierce demand driven by historically low interest rates combined with restricted inventory (made even more scarce by the advent of private equity buyers like BlackStone and KKR) helped create the conditions for a housing boom. And as the COVID pandemic launched the work-from-home revolution, legions of Americans looking to relocate for any of a number of reasons decided it was time to buy. Home values swelled at a record pace, surging almost 20% between September 2020 to September 2021. The historic rise exceeded the former highest yearly increase of 14%, which came prior to the 2008 crash. Although the market is starting to cool, buyers still face many obstacles.With millennials at a disadvantage due to their relative lack of wealth (although, to be sure, many were aided by wealthy parents eager to help with a down payment), many said they would be willing to take risks, including buying a home sight unseen (90%), purchasing a fixer-upper in need of major repairs (82%), and offering over asking price (80%). One of the most common "risks" taken by millennial buyers was increasing their budgets: 46% of survey respondents said they expected to max out completely. They found that 33% planned to purchase a home that costs around $405K, the median US home price.
Construction Costs Spike 17.5%, Worst since at least 1965. Inventories of New Houses Pile Up, Highest since 2008. Median Price Dives as Mix Shifts -by Wolf Richter -Homebuilders are on a wild ride, beset by shortages of materials and supplies, near-eternal lead times, spiking construction costs, difficulties in hiring, and projects that are bogged down. And inventories for sale, driven by homes that are still under construction and cannot be completed due to the shortages, are piling up. Inventory of single-family houses for sale at all stages of construction has been surging throughout the year 2021 and in December hit 403,000 (seasonally adjusted), up 58% from a year ago, and the highest level since August 2008. This represents about 6 months’ supply, according to date from the Census Bureau today:The number of single-family houses for sale that were still under construction jumped to 263,000 in December, the highest since August 2007 (red line in the chart below).The number of houses for sale where construction hasn’t started yet remained at 101,000 in December. The past three months were all above 100,000, the highest in the data, having edged past the prior high of April 2006 (purple line).But the number of completed houses for sale has been bouncing along record lows in all of 2021, as builders face shortages that prevent them from completing the houses. These shortages range from windows to appliances. And once houses are completed – if they haven’t sold already during the prior stages – sell quickly. In December, 39,000 completed houses were for sale (green line).Construction costs of single-family houses spiked by 17.5% year-over-year in December, according to separate data from the Census Bureau today. This was the worst spike in the data going back to 1970. Compared to two years ago, construction costs are up 23.5%. These construction costs exclude the cost of land and other non-construction costs:The median price of single-family houses sold in December plunged from $416,100 in November to $377,700 in December. This slashed the year-over-year price gains that had run in the 23% to 32% range since July to just 3.4%.The median price is volatile and is skewed by changes in the mix of lower-priced homes versus higher-priced homes that sold that month. And there was some of that in December, with the number of houses sold in the $200,000 to $299,000 range rising and with the number of houses sold in the $400,000 and up categories falling, which shifted the mix. Sales of new single-family houses in December, at all stages of construction combined, rose from November, but was still down 14% from a year ago, to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 811,000 houses. Sales remain far below the boom years of 2002-2006.
Personal Income increased 0.3% in December; Spending decreased 0.6% --The BEA released the Personal Income and Outlays report for December: Personal income increased $70.7 billion (0.3 percent) in December according to estimates released today by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Disposable personal income (DPI) increased $39.9 billion (0.2 percent) and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) decreased $95.2 billion (0.6 percent). Real DPI decreased 0.2 percent in December and Real PCE decreased 1.0 percent; goods decreased 3.1 percent and services increased 0.1 percent. The PCE price index increased 0.4 percent. Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index increased 0.5 percent The December PCE price index increased 5.8 percent year-over-year and the PCE price index, excluding food and energy, increased 4.9 percent year-over-year.The following graph shows real Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) through December 2021 (2012 dollars). Note that the y-axis doesn't start at zero to better show the change. The dashed red lines are the quarterly levels for real PCE.Personal income was slightly below expectations, and the decrease in PCE was also slightly below expectations.
U.S. Personal Income Rises Less Than Expected, Personal Spending Slumps - A report released by the Commerce Department on Friday showed personal income in the U.S. increased by less than expected in the month of December. The Commerce Department said personal income rose by 0.3 percent in December after climbing by an upwardly revised 0.5 percent in November. Economists had expected personal income to advance by 0.5 percent compared to the 0.4 percent increase originally reported for the previous month. Disposable personal income, or personal income less personal current taxes, also edged up by 0.2 percent in December after rising by 0.4 percent in November. When adjusted for inflation, however, disposable personal income actually dipped by 0.2 percent for the third straight month. The report also showed personal spending fell by 0.6 percent in December after rising by 0.4 percent in November. The decrease in spending matched economist estimates. Excluding price changes, real personal spending tumbled by 1.0 percent in December after slipping by 0.2 percent in the previous month. "Even assuming a bounce-back for each of the three months of the first quarter, which seems unlikely given that Omicron and the child tax credit expiry will weigh on spending in January, the devastatingly weak end to the previous quarter means that we expect first-quarter real consumption growth to be unchanged overall," s "Add in a slower pace of inventory accumulation, and we currently have first-quarter GDP growth tracking at -0.5% annualized," he added. "To our minds, despite the strength of price and wage inflation, it is disappointingly weak real economic growth that will prevent the Fed from delivering a full-blown Ratemaggedon this year." With income rising and spending falling, personal saving as a percentage of disposable income jumped to 7.9 percent in December from 7.2 percent in November. Meanwhile, a reading on inflation said to be preferred by the Federal Reserve showed the annual rate of core consumer price growth accelerated to 4.9 percent in December from 4.7 percent in November, reaching the highest level since September 1983.
U.S. Food Supply Is Under Pressure, From Plants to Store Shelves – WSJ - The U.S. food system is under renewed strain as Covid-19’s Omicron variant stretches workforces from processing plants to grocery stores, leaving gaps on supermarket shelves. In Arizona, one in 10 processing plant and distribution workers at a major produce company were recently out sick. In Massachusetts, employee illnesses have slowed the flow of fish to supermarkets and restaurants. A grocery chain in the U.S. Southeast had to hire temporary workers after roughly one-third of employees at its distribution centers fell ill. Food-industry executives and analysts warn that the situation could persist for weeks or months, even as the current wave of Covid-19 infections eases. Recent virus-related absences among workers have added to continuing supply and transportation disruptions, keeping some foods scarce.Nearly two years ago, Covid-19 lockdowns drove a surge in grocery buying that cleared store shelves of products such as meat, baking ingredients and paper goods.Now some executives say supply challenges are worse than ever. The lack of workers leaves a broader range of products in short supply, food-industry executives said, with availability sometimes changing daily. Supermarket operators and food makers say that overall supplies are ample, despite the continuing labor shortages and difficulties transporting goods. They say that shoppers will find what they are looking for, but may have to opt for different brands. Eddie Quezada, produce manager at a Stop & Shop store in Northport, N.Y., said Omicron has stretched his department more than any previous wave of the pandemic, with one in five of his staff contracting Covid-19 in early January. Deliveries also have taken a hit, he said: Earlier in the month he received only 17 of the 48 cases of strawberries he had ordered.At a Piggly Wiggly franchisee in Alabama and Georgia, about one-third of pickers needed to organize products and load trucks at the grocery chain’s distribution centers were out sick in the first week of January, said Keith Milligan, its controller. The company has been struggling to get food to stores on time due to driver shortages and staffing issues that haven’t improved, Mr. Milligan said, leaving Piggly Wiggly to change its ordering and stocking plans daily in some cases. Frozen vegetables and canned biscuits are running low, he said.In-stock levels of food products at U.S. retailers hit 86% for the week ended Jan. 16, according to data from market-research firm IRI. That is lower than last summer and pre-pandemic levels of more than 90%. Sports drinks, frozen cookies and refrigerated dough are especially low, with in-stock levels in the 60% to 70% range. In-stock rates are lower in states such as Alaska and West Virginia, IRI data show.“We were expecting supply issues to get resolved as we go into this period right now. Omicron has put a bit of a dent on that,” Vivek Sankaran, chief executive of Albertsons Cos., said on a Jan. 11 call with analysts. He said the Boise, Idaho-based supermarket giant expects more supply challenges over the next month or so.
"Take Only What You Need:" DC Asks People To Limit Supermarket Purchases As Empty Shelves Persist - "If you're hitting the grocery store to prepare for winter weather, please just buy what you need and leave some for others! You may have noticed empty shelves in some stores due to national supply chain issues, but there is no need to buy more than you normally would." Above is a recent tweet from the DC Homeland Security and Emergency Management Agency (DC HSEMA) completely contradicting what President Biden told the nation last Wednesday that images of empty store shelves in supermarkets are fake news.Biden, talking about his Build Back Better legislation, said, "First fix the supply chain... We heard dire warnings about how these supply chain problems could create a real crisis around the holidays. So we acted." The president preceded to tell the nation, "eighty-nine percent" of supermarkets "are full, which is only a few points below what it was before the pandemic."He said the images Americans see on television of empty shelves are misleading. Suppose supermarket shelves aren't empty, as Biden explains. Why would DC HSEMA issue a notice to area residents about empty store shelves and ask people not to panic hoard ahead and during adverse weather conditions this winter?Something is amiss here, and it seems the delusional 79yo president might be a little out of touch with reality.For a dose of reality, the internet has been washed with social media users pointing out bare shelves at supermarkets around the country.Last week, Phil Lempert, an editor of the website SupermarketGuru.com, told NPR that supermarket shelves are bare again. He called it a "perfect storm."Industry experts, such as Conagra Brands' CEO Sean Connolly warned its US plants could be constrained for at least the next month due toOmicron-related absences.Another expert, the CEO of Albertsons, is anticipating continued supply chain woes "over the next four to six weeks."So if the nation's food supply is under stress and store shelves are going bare as DC HSEMA tells residents not to panic hoard, then why in the heck is the president misleading the public about how everything is okay?
Ag, Grocery Industries Given Six Months to Comply With Prop 12 Once Rules Finalized -- A California court halted the enforcement of Proposition 12 on Monday, moving back enforcement of the animal-welfare law to six months after rules are finalized. The California Department of Food and Agriculture is more than two years late in finalizing rules for the law that places animal-welfare restrictions on pork producers who sell products in the state. In addition, the Supreme Court continues to delay a decision on whether to consider a petition on Proposition 12 filed on behalf of the National Pork Producers Council. Though the court issued orders on Monday that included accepting a petition on the Clean Water Act and other cases while denying other petitions, the court did not accept or deny the NPPC challenge. The Supreme Court's next scheduled conference is set for Feb. 18. Judge James P. Arguelles, in the Superior Court of California for the county of Sacramento, ordered the delay in enforcement after the California Growers Association, California Retailers Association and the California Restaurant Association said in court filings the industry was given no time to comply with the law because regulations have yet to be completed. Proposition 12 went into effect on Jan. 1. The law bans the sale of pork from hogs that don't meet the state's new production standards. A federal appeals court upheld the law. The law requires hog producers to abide by certain regulations to sell pork in California. Voters in the state passed Proposition 12 in 2018 with nearly 63% of voters supporting it. The law forbids the sale of whole pork meat in California from hogs born of sows not housed in conformity with the law. Proposition 12 forbids sows from being confined in such a way that they cannot lie down, stand up, fully extend their limbs, or turn around without touching the sides of their stalls or other animals. The National Pork Producers Council argued in briefs filed with the Supreme Court that the law violates the Commerce Clause by regulating businesses beyond its borders. In the California state case, state officials argued in court filings the pork and grocery industries should be subject to penalties if not in compliance with Proposition 12, even if rules for the program have yet to be finalized. "The state respondents assert that much of the act is clear enough to enforce without additional guidance from" the state, the court said in its ruling. "To be sure, the square-footage requirements and many of the act's definitions are explicit. Again, the act offers no guidance about the steps sellers must take before they should know that a particular product is traceable to a breeding pig that at some point in the distribution chain was confined in fewer than 24 square feet." The ag and grocery groups had asked the court for a 28-month delay on enforcement, but the request was denied.
Despite All the Hype, Movie Theater Ticket Sales in 2021 Down 68% from 19 Years Ago. AMC Shares collapse from WTF Spike - By Wolf Richter - The pandemic just accelerated the structural change by a quantum leap. The number of movie tickets sold in the US have been on the decline for nearly two decades, despite population growth. They’ve gotten hammered by how Americans increasingly watch movies: at home. A slew of competitors with their own studies and streaming services have sprung up, such as Netflix and Amazon. Movie theater ticket sales peaked in 2002 at 1.58 billion tickets. By 2019, sales were down by 22% from the peak, with 1.23 billion tickets sold. Then came the pandemic, and in 2020, amid the lockdowns, ticket sales collapsed. But in 2021, with theaters reopened, the number of tickets sold was still down by 59.4% from 2019 and by 68% from the peak in 2002, according to movie data provider The Numbers. Just 499 million tickets were sold in 2021, while streaming boomed: We could guess what’s in store for the overall US movie theater industry in 2021, based on what its largest player, AMC, reported so far for 2021. AMC’s revenues from just ticket sales in Q3, despite the hugely hyped Labor Day weekend blockbuster numbers of “Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings,” plunged by 47% from Q3 2019, to $425 million. For the first three quarters of 2021, AMC’s revenues from ticket sales plunged by 70% from the same period in 2019, to just $728 million. And movie theaters were open in Q3 – those that were still around. In Q2 last year, AMC became infamous in the history of movie theatersfor having sold more shares than movie tickets,, as it’s trying to fund its huge losses, and as the meme-stock crowd was a lot more excited about buying its shares and driving up their prices than about buying movie tickets. In Q3, AMC’s total revenues from all activities, despite the superbly touted Labor Day weekend success, were still down by 42% from Q3 2019. In early January 2021, with bankruptcy being a real possibility, AMC’s shares were trading in the $2 range. Then the meme-crowd got a hold of them, and the price spiked amid ridiculous volatility to over $72 a share intraday on June 2, with a closing high of $62.55 that day. And to its credit, AMC was selling a huge number of shares in Q2, at huge prices, to whatever gullible meme-stock jockeys were out there. They should have gone to the movies instead. At least they would have had some fun. On Friday, AMC’s shares closed at $17.97, the lowest since May, and down 75% from the intraday peak. These escapades, at the expense of its gullible meme-stock fans, allowed AMC to raise large amounts of money that it can now burn.
How 5G Puts Airplanes at Risk – An Electrical Engineer Explains --Yves here. This is a deliberately very simple explanation of the 5G/airlines controversy that NC readers have debated hotly in comments.As I’ve indicated, one factor the FCC/cell operator defenders keep minimizing, to their peril, is that passenger and cargo airlines are fault intolerant. Having planes fall out of the sky, or merely go splat instead of landing smoothly, is extremely bad for business, as well as employee, passenger, and bystander life and limb.This article contends (in effect) that the FCC made a big mistake in not allowing for a bigger buffer between the US 5G C band and air navigation frequencies. It puts the possible blame on old or too sensitive altimeters. But consumer grade hardware isn’t made to the finest tolerances. It’s not crazy to think that faulty cell towers or even phones could transmit a bit wide of their authorized spectrum. And as we pointed out, upgrading altimeters is likely not just a matter of cost, even though that is a huge issue. Recall Boeing sent a warning out about 5G and its workhorse 777 model. That suggests you can’t just test and fix altimeters one by one. You’d potentially have to upgrade onboard devices, which suggests any fixes would need to take place in a tight timeframe and be closely coordinated. Think the US is capable of anything remotely like that?
LA Area Port Traffic: Disappointing Traffic in December - Incoming port traffic is backed up significantly in the LA area with numerous ships at anchor waiting to unload. Container traffic gives us an idea about the volume of goods being exported and imported - and usually some hints about the trade report since LA area ports handle about 40% of the nation's container port traffic. The following graphs are for inbound and outbound traffic at the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach in TEUs (TEUs: 20-foot equivalent units or 20-foot-long cargo container). To remove the strong seasonal component for inbound traffic, the first graph shows the rolling 12-month average. Click on graph for larger image. On a rolling 12-month basis, inbound traffic was down 1.2% in December compared to the rolling 12 months ending in November. Outbound traffic was down 2.5% compared to the rolling 12 months ending the previous month. The 2nd graph is the monthly data (with a strong seasonal pattern for imports). Usually imports peak in the July to October period as retailers import goods for the Christmas holiday, and then decline sharply and bottom in February or March depending on the timing of the Chinese New Year. 2021 started off incredibly strong for imports - and with the backlog of ships, traffic should remain strong. So, it is disappointing that traffic dipped in December compared to the previous months since there are quite a few ships still waiting to unload. Imports were down 14% YoY in December, and exports were down 27% YoY.
Truckers say an electronic device that measures the hours they drive each day sometimes leaves them stranded just 30 minutes from homeIt wasn't low wages, long hours, or a lack of benefits that drove Brian Pape out of the trucking industry. Instead, it was a tiny device that measured how many hours he drove each day and told him when to stop. "That was it for me," Pape told Insider. "I sold my equipment and I was gone." Truckers are allowed to work for up to 14 hours a day, with a maximum of 11 hours driving. They can't do this all in one go: after eight hours of consecutive driving, they need to take a 30-minute break. These regulations have been in place for years but in 2017 the DOT scrapped the use of paper logs written by truckers and instead mandated electronic logging devices, known as E-Logs, that track when truckers drive and take breaks. Truckers largely say they're in favor of the hours-of-service regulations but that E-Logs were sometimes too strict and left drivers stranded close to home or a truck stop. "If you're 30 minutes from home and you get to your 11 hours, you must shut down or else you get an automatic hours-of-service violation," Pape said. This incurs a fine and could jeopardize a trucker's license. Pape said that prior to the introduction of E-Logs he sometimes exceeded the 11-hour limit by around an hour to reach a certain destination, but never "to a dangerous level." Other truckers made similar comments to Insider. Mark Rumps, an Indiana trucker who runs the YouTube channel Trucking Answers, said that some companies even deliberately avoided using E-Logs by buying and refurbishing trucks with engines manufactured in 2000 or earlier because these are exempt from E-Logs. Pape said just two weeks using E-Logs convinced him to quit driving after around 13 years. Other truckers have been leaving the industry over low pay, long hours, and bad treatment from trucking companies, which has caused chaos across the supply chain. Colorado-based trucker Brian Stauffer said E-Logs were one of the reasons why he quit long-distance driving, likening them to "trying to force a round peg into a square hole."
Gasoline Volume Sales Down 8.9% YoY - The Department of Energy's Energy Information Administration (EIA) monthly data on volume sales is several weeks old when it released. The latest numbers, through mid-November, are now available. Gasoline prices and increases in fuel efficiency are important factors, but there are also some significant demographic and cultural dynamics in this data series. Because the sales data are highly volatile with some obvious seasonality, we've added a 12-month moving average (MA) to give a clearer indication of the long-term trends. The latest 12-month MA is 8.1% below its all-time high set in August 2005.The next chart includes an overlay of real monthly retail gasoline prices, all grades and formulations, adjusted for inflation using the Consumer Price Index (the red line). We've shortened the timeline to start with EIA price series, which dates from August 1990. The retail prices are updated weekly, so the price series is the more current of the two.As we would expect, the rapid rise in gasoline prices in 2008 was accompanied by a significant drop in sales volume. With the official end of the recession in June 2009, sales reversed direction. As a result of COVID-19 and the resulting recession, both gas prices and sales have dropped rapidly. The moving average for the latest month is 5.4% below the pre-COVID recession level. Clearly, gasoline prices were falling beginning in 2018 and the global pandemic facilitated a further and rapid drop.
Ford Shuts Off Orders for New $20,000 Maverick Pickup – WSJ - Ford Motor Co. is taking the unusual step of cutting off customer orders for the Maverick, a more-affordable pickup that it rolled out last fall, saying it has maxed out on what it can build. The move is a sign that American shoppers are hungry for more-affordable options as prices for new cars and trucks hit new records and availability remains constrained on dealership lots. Ford told dealers Monday that it is suspending customer orders for the Maverick pickup truck because it is already straining to fill a backlog. The company will resume taking orders for the 2023 Maverick in the summer, it said in a memo to dealers, reviewed by The Wall Street Journal. “We didn’t want to take more orders than we could build,” said Dean Stoneley, general manager of Ford trucks, in an interview. “We’re getting customers who would have perhaps bought a used car and are now buying the Maverick because it is so affordable,” he said. The strong reception for the Maverick—which starts at about $20,000—comes as car prices soar and auto makers offer fewer entry-level choices, dealers and analysts said. New-car prices had been outpacing inflation for several years even before pandemic-related supply-chain disruptions sent prices sharply higher. Last year, the average price consumers paid for a new vehicle jumped 13%, to a record $40,457, according to research firm J.D. Power. Now, with thin dealer inventory from a nagging computer-chip shortage creating a seller’s market, shoppers are struggling more than ever to afford new wheels, data show. Dealers have had trouble keeping vehicles of any type in stock because of the chip shortage, which has crimped production for the past year. Ford dealers say the Mavericks that arrive on their lots already are earmarked for customers who preordered them. Shutting off customer orders is unusual, said Chris Lemley, president of Sentry Auto Group, a Boston-area Ford-Lincoln-Mazda dealership. “But it’s appropriate under the circumstances to avoid customer disappointment.”
Tesla Now Runs the Most Productive Auto Factory in America - Elon Musk has a very specific vision for the ideal factory: densely packed, vertically integrated and unusually massive. During Tesla Inc.’s early days of mass production, he was chided for what was perceived as hubris. Now, Tesla’s original California factory has achieved a brag-worthy title: the most productive auto plant in North America. Last year Tesla’s factory in Fremont, California, produced an average of 8,550 cars a week. That’s more than Toyota Motor Corp.’s juggernaut in Georgetown, Kentucky (8,427 cars a week), BMW AG’s Spartanburg hub in South Carolina (8,343) or Ford Motor Co.’s iconic truck plant in Dearborn, Michigan (5,564), according to a Bloomberg analysis of production data from more than 70 manufacturing facilities. In a year when auto production around the world was stifled by supply-chain shortages, Tesla expanded its global production by 83% over 2020 levels. Its other auto factory, in Shanghai, tripled output to nearly 486,000. In the coming weeks, Tesla is expected to announce the start of production at two new factories—Gigafactory Berlin-Brandenburg, its first in Europe, and Gigafactory Texas in Austin. Musk said in October that he plans to further increase production in Fremont and Shanghai by 50%. Tesla’s Fremont factory is a scrappy site to behold. Originally built by General Motors Co. in the 1960s and jointly operated by GM and Toyota until after GM’s 2009 bankruptcy, new additions have been kludged together to form an anthill of manufacturing. In what was once a rear parking lot, a pair of industrial tent structures provide shelter for bustling assembly lines that wouldn’t fit inside the packed factory.
Kansas City Fed Survey: Activity Expanded in January - The latest index came in at 24, up from 22 last month, indicating steady continued expansion in January. The future outlook rose to 37. All figures are seasonally adjusted. Here is a snapshot of the complete Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Survey. Quarterly data for this indicator dates back to 1995, but monthly data is only available from 2001.Here is an excerpt from the latest report: – The Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City released the January Manufacturing Survey today. According to Chad Wilkerson, vice president and economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, the survey revealed that Tenth District manufacturing activity continued to grow strongly, and expectations also increased further.“Regional factory activity expanded at a faster pace in January,” said Wilkerson. “However, over half of firms indicated that 10% or more of their workers were out at some point in January due to COVID. Expectations for future activity remained strong, despite firms reporting difficulties from COVID, labor shortages, and continued supply chain issues.” [Full report here] Here is a snapshot of the complete Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Survey.
Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Decrease to 260,000 - The DOL reported:In the week ending January 22, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 260,000, a decrease of 30,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 4,000 from 286,000 to 290,000. The 4-week moving average was 247,000, an increase of 15,000 from the previous week's revised average. The previous week's average was revised up by 1,000 from 231,000 to 232,000.The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims since 1971. The dashed line on the graph is the current 4-week average. The four-week average of weekly unemployment claims increased to 247,000.The previous week was revised up.Weekly claims were close to the consensus forecast, and are elevated likely due to the current COVID wave.
Keystroke tracking, screenshots, and facial recognition: The boss may be watching long after the pandemic ends --When Kerrie Krutchik, an attorney for 34 years, was hired this spring for one of the legal field’s fastest-growing jobs, she expected to review case files at a pandemic-safe distance from the comfort of her Ohio home. Then she received a laptop in the mail with her instructions: To get paid, she’d have to comply with a company-mandated facial recognition system for every minute of her contract. If she looked away for too many seconds or shifted in her chair, she’d have to scan her face back in from three separate angles, a process she ended up doing several times a day. For Krutchik, the laptop’s unblinking little camera light quickly became a nightmare — and a reminder of what her new workday might look like even after the pandemic fades. After two weeks, she ended her contract and pledged never to consent to that kind of monitoring again. “It’s just this constant, unnecessary, nerve-racking stress: You’re trying to concentrate and in the back of your mind you know you’re on camera the entire time,” she said. “While you’re reviewing a document, you don’t know who is reviewing you.” The spread of the delta variant has kept many of America’s office employees working from home and fueled a rise in surveillance technologies by employers — in finance, law, technology and other industries — eager to keep tabs on their remote workforce. The facial recognition monitoring Krutchik experienced offers one of the stranger examples of America’s massive work-from-home experiment, because it relies on a glitchy and, to some, quite creepy camera system built to ensure workers don’t lose focus or break the rules.
Low-wage workers prop up the nursing home industry. They’re quitting in droves - In the eight years she has worked at nursing homes, LaToya Francis, 34, has been yelled at, kicked at and had feces thrown at her for little more than the minimum wage. She endured it because she loved being a certified nursing assistant, she said. But she’s not sure she can hold out much longer. As the omicron variant of the coronavirus drives record staff shortages at nursing homes nationwide, Francis has increasingly found herself alone on her 12-hour overnight shifts at Bridgepoint Healthcare’s skilled nursing facility in Southwest Washington, fighting off panic attacks as she tries to feed, clean and rotate more bed-bound residents than she can handle. Some nights, she retreats to a corner of the facility, where she calls her partner and sobs. Other nights, all she can feel is anger. “I’ve never, ever felt this disrespected,” Francis said. Frustration is surging among the low-wage workers who make up the backbone of the nursing home industry, as tens of thousands of their colleagues call out sick with covid-19, inflaming shortages that already were at crisis levels. Hailed as “heroes” during the early months of the pandemic, these workers, most of whom are women and people of color, say they’re facing untenable levels of pressure. Government support has failed to end the crisis, advocates say, allowing care for the elderly and the infirm to worsen, forcing facilities to limit admission or close entirely and clogging up hospital beds. According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, the nursing home industry has lost more than 420,000 jobs since the start of the pandemic, reducing its workforce to the size it was 15 years ago. Some employees chose to retire early rather than face the intense workload and coronavirus risks at their jobs. Others have been lured away by companies, including Amazon, that offer wages which nursing homes say they cannot compete with.Even as the omicron variant retreats, the staffing crunch will persist, nursing home leaders and unions say. At community colleges, interest in skilled nursing courses has plunged, with some class sizes dropping to half what they were before the pandemic. Of those training to become nursing assistants, many are avoiding nursing homes, where they would earn a median annual wage of $30,120, according to federal data, and are looking instead for jobs as travel nurses or home health aides.
Nursing home staff shortages are worsening problems at hospitals - At the 390-bed Terrace View nursing home on the east side of Buffalo, 22 beds were shut down late last month. There wasn’t enough staff to care for a full house, safely or legally. That meant that some fully recovered patients in the adjacent Erie County Medical Center had to stay in their hospital rooms, waiting for a bed in the nursing home. Which meant that some patients in the emergency department, who should have been admitted to the hospital, remained there until a hospital bed opened up. The emergency department became stretched so thin that 10 percent to 20 percent of arrivals left without seeing a caregiver — after an average wait of six hours to eight hours, according to the hospital’s data.“We used to get upset when our ‘left without being seen’ went above 3 percent,” said Thomas Quatroche, president and chief executive of the Erie County Medical Center Corp., which runs the 590-bed safety net hospital.Nursing home bed and staff shortages were problems in the United States before the coronaviruspandemic. But the departure of 420,000 employees over the past two years has narrowed the bottleneck at nursing homes and other long-term care facilities at the same time that acute care hospitals are facing unending demand for services due to a persistent pandemic and staff shortages of their own.With the omicron variant of the coronavirus causing even more hospitalizations, the problems nursing homes face are taking on even more importance. Several states have sent National Guard members to help with caregiving and other chores. Hospitalizations are rising again as well, according to data tracked by The Washington Post. In some places, there is little room left in hospitals or ICUs.
Stressed hospitals are increasingly asking staff with covid to work while potentially infectious - Candice Cordero still had a fever and a cough late last month when, she says, her hospital told her it was time to come back to work. The Bradenton, Fla. nurse was stunned — and worried she could still be contagious seven days into her breakthrough covid-19 infection. When an employee health representative said she could come back anyway, citing updated federal health guidance, Cordero said she refused. She viewed it as too risky. “I feel like employers are trying to force people back into the workforce too soon,” Cordero said of her hospital’s alleged request, which a spokesperson said was inconsistent with hospital guidelines, including that health care workers should stay home if they have a fever. “People want to go into the hospital and know that they’re going to be safe — not get infected by a virus they could get sick and die from.”Hospitals are increasingly asking staff who have the coronavirus to work while potentially infectious, underscoring how the hyper-transmissible omicron variant has sidelined employees, overwhelmed resources and upended nearly two years of strict protocols. Though vaccine requirements are common at hospitals, many health care workers are coming down with the virus, exacerbating staffing issues. Ten-day isolation periods have given way to five-day ones under CDC guidelines updated late last month, with workers sometimes allowed back as long as symptoms are deemed mild and improving. Officials acknowledge even halving isolation may not be enough to keep hospitals staffed: The CDC sayshealth care workers who test positive can keep working uninterrupted in a “crisis” — and one state, California, recently declared that hospitals could take that step for employees without symptoms.Some in the health care industry call the changes dangerous to already-demoralized front line workers and their patients, especially those most vulnerable to covid-19. Research in a preprint study from the United Kingdom suggests that about 1 in 3 people who get the coronavirus remain infectious after five days.Others call looser return-to-work standards necessary to keep crucial services running, as federal data shows more than a fifth of U.S. hospitals reporting a “critical staffing shortage” in the past week and about 30 percent anticipating one in the week to come. High-quality protective gear reduces the risks, they emphasize.“The last thing you want is to say, well, we’re closing the hospital because we don’t have enough doctors and nurses,”
Gunmen opens fire in NYC ER waiting room - Authorities said a gunman opened fire in a New York City hospital’s emergency room, resulting in one person being shot. Law enforcement told ABC affiliate WABC that the incident happened Tuesday afternoon at Jacobi Medical Center in the Bronx. According to NBC affiliate WRC, two men were involved in an argument with another man in the medical facility’s waiting area. The unidentified suspect then fired three shots, striking one individual in the arm. The suspect then fled the scene. The unidentified male victim, aged 35, was rushed into the emergency room for surgery and is expected to survive his injuries, according to WABC. Jacobi Medical Center went under lockdown as a precaution, though the shooting was believed to be an isolated incident, WRC reported.
Officer who killed woman in Washington state had been fired from previous job: report - A Washington state police officer who fatally shot a 39-year-old mother in 2020 was dismissed from a previous job just over a year before the shooting, according to a report from The Seattle Times.Daniel Mendoza spent seven months as a probationary Whatcom County sheriff’s deputy before he was dismissed for poor performance in 2019. In that role, he reportedly failed to recite statutes, got lost while responding to calls, wrote muddled reports and failed tests that included topics like appropriate use of force, the Times reported. He was hired as a rookie police officer in Redmond, Wash., in 2019, just under one month after his dismissal.On Sept. 20, 2020, Mendoza allegedly shot Andrea Churna, the divorced mother of a 7-year-old, six times. Churna was having a mental health crisis and had called the police for help under the belief someone was attempting to break into her apartment and kill her, the Times reported. When she came out of her apartment a second time, she had her hands up and was unarmed. She was ordered to get on the floor and was allegedly squirming. The Times reported that Mendoza was on the only officer who fired his weapon at that moment, according to sheriff's documents. The Times also reported issues during Mendoza's Washington State Criminal Justice Training. The paper reported that he was ranked last in his class academically and failed a mock test repeatedly, rendering him unable to graduate.Personnel records obtained by the Times appeared to show that Whatcom County stepped in to help Mendoza pass on his third attempt, and only then did the academy certify him as a peace officer. “He does not have a working knowledge of common RCWs [Revised Code of Washington] that he should have a strong knowledge of coming out of the academy. Examples of this have been the definition of ‘necessary’," Whatcom County Deputy Chief Doug Chadwick wrote to field training Lt. Rodger Funk following Mendoza's second failed attempt to pass the test, the Times added. “Every recruit is required to recite [the definition] verbatim regularly at the academy, yet he could not,” Chadwick continued. The definition that Mendoza failed to recite had to do with when officers are allowed to use deadly force.
New Orleans health chief pulls out of Mardi Gras parade, citing threats -New Orleans’ health director said she will miss one of the earliest Mardi Gras parades due to safety concerns following recently reimplemented COVID-19 policies. In a letter to the parade group, Dr. Jennifer Avegno said she would opt out of the event as officials were facing increased “negativity and hatred” following the reimplementation of COVID-19 procedures, The Times-Picayune / The New Orleans Advocate reported. “I do not want to create a security risk by my participation,” Avegno wrote.She added that “the best place for me this year is behind the scenes helping to continue protecting our community.”On Jan. 11, Avegno, who leads the city’s health department, announced that masks would be required in indoor public spaces in New Orleans. The theme for the parade, scheduled for Feb. 12, is “Vaxxed and Confused.” The Krewe du Vieux said the float for Avegno, whom they consider queen of the festivities, will still be included in the parade, The Associated Press reported.
Ohio election chief tests positive for COVID-19 -Ohio Secretary of State Frank LaRose (R) tested positive for COVID-19 on Monday in a breakthrough case of the virus, spokesman Rob Nichols confirmed on Tuesday. “Fortunately, I feel fine,” LaRose, who is fully vaccinated and boosted, said in a statement. “I even went on a 6.5 mile run on Sunday evening, but after continuing to experience some very mild symptoms, I figured it was best to take a test and be sure.” Nichols noted that LaRose had tested positive on Monday after taking a rapid test. All of the secretary of state's scheduled public events for the week were postponed and all close contacts around him were informed, Nichols added. On Saturday, LaRose met with members of the Ohio Redistricting Commission over the state’s new legislative maps, The Columbus Dispatch reported. Commission members include Gov. Mike DeWine (R) and House Minority Leader Allison Russo (D). DeWine was not a close contact to LaRose, DeWine spokesperson Dan Tierney said in a statement. During the meeting “they were seated at opposite ends of the House Finance Hearing Room, about 30 feet from each other, both facing the audience, not each other,” Tierney added. The Associated Press noted that LaRose, DeWine and Russo are all fully vaccinated and received booster shots.
Perdue tests positive for COVID-19, campaign says -Former Sen. David Perdue (R-Ga.) has tested positive for COVID-19, his gubernatorial campaign said in a statement. Perdue, who is challenging Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp in a hotly contested GOP primary, has been vaccinated against COVID-19 and has received a booster shot, his campaign said. He isn’t currently experiencing any symptoms. “Yesterday afternoon, during routine COVID-19 testing, David Perdue tested positive,” the campaign said. “He is vaccinated and boosted. Perdue doesn’t have a fever and isn’t experiencing symptoms at this time. He will be quarantining and following the updated guidance from the CDC, and he looks forward to being back out on the campaign trail as soon as possible.”
Appeals judge temporarily reinstates New York's indoor mask mandate - A judge in New York ruled that the state's mask mandate will temporarily remain in place as a legal battle over the matter is ongoing in state court. Appellate Judge Robert Miller issued a stay on Tuesday to retain the mask mandate pending ongoing court procedures for the case, court documents showed. His decision followed Assistant Attorney General Judith Vale's argument against removing the mask mandate, asserting that the Department of Health had "ample statutory authority" to issue the order. The attorney general's appeal came after a decision from Nassau County Supreme Court Justice Thomas Rademaker that determined Gov. Kathy Hochul (D)'s indoor mask mandate was “unconstitutional.” “The court cannot find any law enacted by the State Legislature that specifically gives the Department of Health and its Commissioner the authority to enact a law,” Rademaker said in his ruling. New York Attorney General Letitia James (D) issued a statement on Tuesday supporting the stay. “Nearly three years into the COVID-19 pandemic, we know that wearing a mask saves lives,” James said. “This mandate and today’s decision are critical in helping to stop the spread of this virus and protect individuals young and old.” Hochul, who had previously criticized Rademaker’s decision and vowed to fight it, also voiced approval of the decision.
Woman At Texas Walmart Offers Another Shopper $500,000 For Her Child -- It looks like supply chain shortages are showing up everywhere... For example, a woman in a Walmart in Texas this month reportedly offered another shopper $500,000 for her infant child. The "bizarre encounter" took place in Crockett, Texas, when two women were reportedly both at the self-checkout line. A mother on line said 49 year old Rebecca Taylor commented about her son's blond hair and blue eyes before asking "how much he costs". The mother originally laughed off the incident, before Taylor claimed to have $250,000 in her car. Then, the mother alerted the authorities. She told police that Taylor was at the store with another woman and that she waited for them to leave the store before leaving herself. After she thought Taylor left, she made her way out to the parking lot where Taylor and the other woman "screamed at her that the offer was now $500,000." Taylor has since been charged with "sale or purchase of a child" and has been released from the Houston County Sheriff’s Office on a $50,000 bond, the NY Post, Fox News and Click 2 Houston reported.
Connecticut mother sues Meta and Snap, alleging they contributed to suicide of 11-year-old daughter who had 'extreme addiction' to social media - A Connecticut mother is suing Meta, the company formerly known as Facebook, and Snap, alleging their "dangerous and defective social media products" played a role in her 11-year-old daughter's suicide. The complaint, filed by Tammy Rodriguez in San Francisco federal court earlier this week, claims Selena Rodriguez suffered from depression , sleep deprivation, eating disorders, and self-harm tied to her use of Instagram and Snapchat. According to the filing, Selena began using social media roughly two years before her death by suicide in July 2021, during which time she developed "an extreme addiction to Instagram and Snapchat." The filing also claims the 11-year-old missed school multiple times because of her social media use and that she was asked to send sexually explicit content by male users on both platforms. Rodriguez wrote in the filing that she attempted to get her daughter mental health treatment several times, with one outpatient therapist saying she had "never seen a patient as addicted to social media as Selena." At one point, Selena was hospitalized for emergency psychiatric care, according to the complaint. In a statement, Snap said it couldn't comment on the specifics of an active case but told Insider "nothing is more important to us than the wellbeing of our community." "We are devastated to hear of Selena's passing and our hearts go out to her family," a Snap spokesperson told Insider. "Snapchat helps people communicate with their real friends, without some of the public pressure and social comparison features of traditional social media platforms, and intentionally makes it hard for strangers to contact young people."
Chicago Public Schools covers up COVID-19 data, sparking widespread anger -- Jakob Ondrey, a Chicago Public Schools (CPS) parent and the creator of the independent CPS COVID-19 Dashboard data tracking website, found that the school district had begun a coverup of its case reporting at schools before teachers and students were forced back into unsafe classrooms after the holidays. Under the watch of Democratic Mayor Lori Lightfoot, CPS officials began a process of underreporting data by early January, when Ondrey noticed a clear discrepancy in the data. The underreporting of COVID-19 data is now part of a broader trend that started in the Trump administration and has now culminated in the Biden administration’s policies to end reporting of daily deaths by the Department of Health and Human Services. The official policy nationally is now to downplay reporting of COVID-19 cases and declare the pandemic over despite over 700,000 cases daily and more than 2,000 deaths every day. A report by the Pew Research Center claims that “many state health officials say they’re preparing to scale back the frequency of case count updates, possibly as soon as the current surge.” CPS COVID-19 dashboard and initial tweet (Credit: Jakob Ondrey) Ondrey’s independent exposure of the coverup of cases in CPS mirrors these national trends. Last Thursday he broke the story on Twitter, noting, “Today I’ll share the story of how [Chicago Public Schools] has been displaying different sets of COVID data to intentionally deceive parents & the public about COVID in schools. I’ll share evidence about how and (shockingly) WHEN they started fudging the numbers.” Ondrey pulls raw data from CPS district servers independently using their software application programming interface (API). His analysis showed that CPS continued to report district-wide infections and cases but reporting at schools was underreported. Individual schools would show far lower case counts, in order to convince parents and teachers that schools were safer than they appeared. For weeks, parents and educators were already beginning to notice that the data they received from school principals did not match the data being updated by the districts for the CPS dashboard. One example Ondrey showed was at Lane Tech high school, where over 51 cases were missing, as shown below.
More than a quarter of Los Angeles students are out sick amid Omicron surge -As the Los Angeles Unified School District enters the third week of the spring semester, coronavirus cases continue to explode throughout student and staff populations. Despite the fact that a staggering 66,000 students tested positive for coronavirus as part of baseline testing conducted by the district prior to reopening, the school district decided to fully open nonetheless on January 11. Unsurprisingly, student attendance rapidly declined as case numbers skyrocketed. The district averaged 72.5 and 75.9 percent attendance respectively last Tuesday and Wednesday or an average of 107,000 students absent each day. Absentee figures were even worse during the first week of the spring semester when the district recorded an absentee rate of 33.2 percent. On Friday, the district announced that it would mandate non-cloth face masks beginning on Monday, January 24 to slow down accelerating cases among students and staff, a measure which will be insufficient on its own to substantially bring down infection figures. A day after the mask announcement, the Los Angeles County Department of Health reported that the seven-day test positivity rate for COVID-19 remained “very high” at 16 percent. More than 250,000 positive cases had been reported the previous week while 4,701 COVID-19 patients were hospitalized across Los Angeles County on Tuesday. The modified mask mandate went into effect the same day California state senator Richard Pan announced legislation requiring students to be vaccinated against COVID-19 to attend in-person classes. The legislation, if passed, would add the COVID-19 vaccine to the list of inoculations students must receive to attend K-12 schools. If passed, the law would not go into effect until January 1, 2023 and is dependent on full FDA approval of vaccines for school-aged children. The health care system in Los Angeles, the largest metropolitan area in the country, is on the brink of collapse from the latest surge of Omicron infections and hospitalizations. While hospitals fill up to and beyond capacity, staffing levels are decreasing as more nurses and doctors become infected with COVID. Across Los Angeles county, between January 7 and 13, a total of 1,268 new positive cases were reported among health care workers, a 30 percent increase versus the prior week. Nonetheless, the California Department of Public Health order issued on January 8 still allows Covid positive health care workers to immediately return to work without isolation and further testing provided they are asymptomatic and wearing N95 masks.
Michigan school district mandating masks after community vote - A school district in southwest Michigan is requiring face masks after parents, guardians and staff members voted in favor of doing so.Pennfield Schools' policy went into effect Monday and will continue through Feb. 18, according to the district. Masks will be required for students and staff during school hours and will be highly recommended, though not required, for after-school activities or athletic events.Nearly 58 percent of the 1,041 votes, which were cast on Tuesday and Wednesday last week, were in favor of the requirement.The district, located in Michigan's Battle Creek area, has held classes remotely since Jan. 14 but planned to return in person on Monday. The Calhoun County health department reported the district has had at least six COVID-19 outbreaks, according to The Associated Press.Interim Superintendent Don Myers said fatigue from quarantine requirements could be the reason parents and staffers supported the mask mandate. “The majority of people want the masks up because they're tired of students being quarantined all the time,” Myers said to WWMT-TV, a local CBS affiliate.“We just want to make Pennfield a good place for our students and a safe place, and we're doing all that we can to keep the virus down,” he added. As of Sunday, Michigan, where 63 percent of people are fully vaccinated, reported a daily average of 19,973 cases, a 24 percent increase in the past two weeks, according to The New York Times. Cases in the state have risen sharply this month, driven by the highly-transmissible omicron variant.
Students in Washington D.C. protest in-person classes amid record levels of infection -- Students throughout the Washington D.C. public schools system staged walkouts or wore red in opposition to the unsafe return to in-person classes on Tuesday. The protests are part of a wave of walkouts and strikes by students and faculty in opposition to the return to classes following the holidays.In the past month, student walkouts have occurred throughout the United States and internationally. In addition to Washington D.C., last week over 1,000 students in neighboring Montgomery County Public Schools, one of the country’s largest systems, walked out to protest reopening. The day before, students were forced to back down from protesting in BrowardCounty, Florida after their school board threatened punishment. Broward County, the sixth largest school system in the country, has seen over 7,000 COVID-19 cases a day in recent weeks. On Tuesday, a walkout at Benjamin Banneker High School in Northwest D.C. drew several dozen students, while smaller gatherings were reported at McKinley Technology High School, School Without Walls, Phelps High School, Dunbar High School, Woodrow Wilson High School and Ronald Brown Preparatory High School.The protests were organized by Students 4 Safe Learning, an online student group formed barely a week before. “We aren’t just kids talking to talk. We know that we have to advocate for ourselves and families. There’s so much stress that comes with not knowing if you’re bringing something home to your family and friends. It all takes a toll on our mental health,” says the group’s mission statement on Twitter.Students at Benjamin Banneker posted videos featuring signs and posters, with a number of students stating that they intentionally went a day long without eating due to fear of having to remove their masks. “I don’t think we should be here. I caught COVID-19 myself. At least two to three people in every class I have are out,” stated a student at Woodrow Wilson High School to an International Youth and Students for Social Equality reporting team. Another student said, “it doesn’t make sense” that classes are open now even though the caseloads are the highest of the entire pandemic.
Student-led walkout in Broward County, Florida canceled after county school board threatens students - High school students throughout Broward County, Florida planned to walk out of their classrooms Monday morning to protest against the county school board’s reckless COVID-19 policies. The students were demanding, and continue to demand, better, scientifically guided public health policies to stop transmission of the disease through the schools. However, the students canceled the protest over the weekend after the county school board issued a series of warnings to the students and threatened them with retaliation. Student organizers at several high schools, who created social media pages on Twitter and Instagram to protect their identities, first announced last week that they would mobilize students for mass walkouts during school hours. Youth in Broward had become furious and fed up with the needless sacrifice of countless lives due to the callous indifference displayed by school district officials. The county school board, however, has been determined to suppress their democratic and free speech rights and send children back into unsafe classrooms after their winter break, despite the massive surge in COVID-19 infections sparked by the highly infectious Omicron variant. A collective of students in the sixth-largest school district in the US issued an open letter through social media on January 11 to the Broward County School Board demanding officials put in place policies that would curb the spread of the pandemic. The open letter came just one week after students returned to classrooms for the spring semester, while case numbers in Broward and throughout Florida had already been soaring. The open letter notes several incredible statistics showing the explosive growth of COVID-19 infections in Broward. An average of 7,179 cases have been recorded each day, while the county’s positivity rate remains at a staggering 37.8 percent, far exceeding the World Health Organization’s threshold of 5 percent needed to demonstrate the pandemic is contained. More than 8,000 students and teachers have tested positive for the virus for the 2021-22 school year, with 40 percent of these cases occurring since winter break. Most of the remaining cases came during August and September, with schools reopening during the height of the Delta surge.
Advocate of Book Burning Becomes Chairman of Virginia School Board - Peter Greene tells the ignominious story of the Spottsylvania, Virginia, school board. One of the school board members, Kirk Twigg, is a conservative Christian who is very fearful of books that might have any sexual content. He wants them burned. He was recently elected chairman of the school board and promised to fire the superintendent. Which he did. Greene writes: You may recall the story about the Spotsylvania school district in Virginia, where books were being protested and pulled and two board members thought maybe the books should be burned. Well, one of those guys is now the board chairman, and things are blowing up in a hurry.The board is a 4-3 board (though those who didn’t want to burn the books were supportive of banning them), and the 4-person conservative majority installed Kirk Twigg as the president.Scott Baker has been with district in various capacities for years before becoming superintendent in 2012; he won some awards for his superintendenting prowess, but there’s a portion of the local populace that are not fans. There’s a whole blog devoted to laying out his many alleged sins, but not being hard enough on dirty books has drawn the most criticism in the recent past, along with agitation over school closings.Baker was on his way out, with departure negotiated for the end of this school year. That was not fast enough for Twigg, who has been vocal in his opposition to various books. The ban was centered on “sexually explicit” books, but Twigg, besides expressing his interest in burning objectionable material also added that he would like to broaden the criteria for rooting through the school libraries, saying, “There are some bad, evil-related material that we have to be careful of and look at.”Twigg promised that, if elected chair of the board, his first action would be to fire Baker effective immediately. Last Monday night, in a meeting, characterized as chaotic and contentious, he did just that. He called an unscheduled closed session during the meeting, then came back to announce that Baker had been terminated–before being reminded that the board had to take an actual vote.No reason has been given for the firing, but it’s Virginia, a right to work state, and no reason has to be given.
Euclid Teachers Association files 10-day strike notice in Cleveland, Ohio suburb -On January 21, the Euclid Teachers Association (ETA), which negotiates on behalf of roughly 420 teaching staff in the Cleveland, Ohio suburb, filed a 10-day strike notice with the Euclid Board of Education. The ETA will now have to hold a membership vote to approve strike action. The teachers have been working without a contract since the school year started. The ETA and board began negotiations on the contract last spring, with the most recent round of negotiations taking place the day before the strike notice was filed. This is the second time the union has issued a strike notice in the last three months. The ETA says the main sticking point in negotiations is the board’s demand that administrators be able to reassign teachers to other classes mid-school year. “The Board demands that administrators have the power to remove teachers from their classrooms and reassign them at any point in the school year to any classroom of the Board’s choosing,” the union said in a recent statement. These changes in classes “would destroy the teacher-student relationship which is an important foundation for learning,” the statement said. The Euclid Board of Education in recent statements have confirmed that negotiations reached an impasse due to the board’s demand. The board has also claimed they are offering “one of the biggest salary increases among any school district in Ohio” in response to the current economic instability during the pandemic. The board has also claimed that if a strike takes place, classes “must and will continue.” It is currently unclear who will be teaching the roughly 4,700 students in the event of a strike. The next round of negotiations between the board and ETA is scheduled to take place on January 26. While the ETA has claimed that in the event of a strike teachers would be out until a contract is reached, it is entirely possible a strike will be averted by the board and the union. Throughout the negotiations, ETA officials have stated that a strike action is a last resort. In November, the union went so far as to file a 10-day strike notice and held a strike authorization vote. Despite educators voting in favor of the strike, the ETA did not have teachers walk off the job and instead opted to call limited protests. The contract dispute at Euclid City Schools is representative of the larger crisis of public education in Ohio and across the US. Administrators hope to continue the decades-long attack on conditions for teachers but are curbed out of fear that their actions could further exacerbate a teacher shortage during the COVID-19 pandemic. At the same time, the official teachers unions—the National Education Association (NEA) and American Federation of Teachers (AFT) hope to dissipate mass anger among educators and other school workers and avoid a rebellion against the unsafe conditions in schools.
California School District Faces Legal Action Over LGBTQ+ Activist Teachers - A mother of a student has taken legal action against a school district in Salinas, Calif., over policies she claims allowed two teachers at Buena Vista Middle School to secretly brainwash her teenage daughter into identifying as bisexual, and later as transgender. Jessica Konen blasted members of the Spreckels Union School District (SUSD) at a board meeting in mid-December, claiming the teachers, who ran a LGBTQ+ club during lunch-hour, “coached” her then sixth-grade daughter to change her gender identity and use a masculine name and pronouns at school. Her daughter has since switched schools, returned to using her feminine birth name and gender, and seems to be happier, according to her mother—and no longer showing signs of gender dysphoria. Harmeet Dhillon, CEO of the Center for American Liberty, which is representing Konen and her daughter, told The Epoch Times on Jan. 19 the case is important to protect parental rights. “It’s terrible what happened to this family,” Dhillon said. “Supreme Court precedent has made clear that parents have a fundamental right to direct the upbringing and education of their children, and their right is denied to them when schools keep secrets from parents, especially on matters as foundational as a child’s identity, name [and] pronouns,” she said. “That’s what happened to our clients. This is a violation of the clients’ civil rights—the parent and the child. Every parent has a right to know what’s going on at school.”Dhillon accused SUSD and Buena Vista Middle School of adopting a “parental secrecy policy,” to keep parents in the dark about certain information regarding students’ gender expression and identity.
Utah school district sued by teacher who reported sexual harassment among students - A Utah teacher is suing the Park City School District, accusing the district of retaliating against her for reporting sexual harassment among students. Kathryn Moore specifically accuses the district of "violations of Title IX" and "state breach of contract," according to CNN.The lawsuit, filed in the 3rd District Court for Summit County, says a few of the fifth grade girls in Moore's class told her in December 2020 that "one of the boys in the class was touching them inappropriately and staring at them in ways that made them uncomfortable," CNN reported. Moore, a temporary teacher hired for the 2020-2021 school year, "immediately" reported the harassment to the principal who suggested she tell their parents. Two weeks after her report, the principal recommended she "segregate her classroom by gender, seating all the boys on one side of the classroom and all the girls on the other." Moore complied though she "strongly disagreed" with the instructions. Her lawsuit also alleged that the principal did not "investigate the female students' complaints, correct the behavior of the accused male student, or protect female students from further sexual harassment," CNN added. Last January, roughly one month after her report, Moore's students were interviewed individually outside of her classroom though she did not know why. She was later told that "the 'investigation' revealed a 'harmonious classroom,' and that it was time to 'reintegrate' the students," the outlet said. Another teacher arrived to replace Moore two weeks later and said that Moore had requested to be transferred, a claim Moore says was false. The principal quickly said that the incident was a "misunderstanding," but the next day, Moore was called into a meeting with the principal during which she was given the "opportunity" to transfer. "Ms. Moore was not given any choice in the matter," the suit claimed, according to CNN. The teacher’s suit seeks lost wages and benefits as well as punitive damages and legal fees, CNN noted.
73 San Diego school workers terminated over vaccine mandate - Seventy-three San Diego Unified School District (SDUSD) employees have had their contracts terminated due to not complying with the school district's COVID-19 vaccination mandate, the Los Angeles Times reported. The school district set Jan. 24 as the deadline to enforce consequences for employees who failed to be fully vaccinated or meet exemption requirements. Out of the 73 employees, 12 are credentialed employees (teachers, principals and counselors) and 61 are non-credentialed (bus drivers, cafeteria workers and custodians). San Diego Unified School Board decided in September to require employees and students to be fully vaccinated against the coronavirus by Dec. 20, according to the Times. Employees who didn't comply with the district’s vaccine mandate will be terminated and students who didn’t comply will be forced to learn from home. The mandate also allows students and district faculty to seek medical and personal belief exemptions from taking the vaccine. This comes as 99 percent of school district employees are either fully vaccinated or have received an exemption to the mandate, the Times reported. San Diego Unified School Board Trustee Richard Barrera told the Times more than 840 employees were granted medical or personal belief exemption since the mandate began. Barrera also said the district's high percentage of compliant employees means the vaccine mandate has been a success, the Times reported.
University of Illinois Chicago downplays danger of in-person learning amid Omicron surge - The University of Illinois Chicago (UIC) hosted a virtual town hall last Wednesday to address “questions and concerns” held by students, faculty and university workers regarding the plans to resume in-person learning in the midst of an unprecedented surge of the Omicron variant across the country. The town hall came just days after UIC hastily announced the university would return to full in-person instruction on Monday, January 24. This return to in-person learning means over 30,000 students and 10,000 workers and staff will be forced back onto the university campuses where they will inevitably spread the virus. The lead speakers of the event, Dr. Susan Bleasedale and UIC Chancellor Michael D. Amiridis, spoke on the return to school and downplayed the ongoing dangers of the pandemic. Such downplaying of the dangers of the pandemic is in line with the policies of the Biden administration nationally, which has pushed for school and university reopenings with the help of the unions. Dr. Bleasedale and the panelists made the specious argument that in-person education would be safe because of the relative decline in cases and test positivity rates over the past few weeks, largely due to remote learning. The panelists claimed that vaccination, testing and masking would prevent the spread of the Omicron variant on the campus and beyond. The panelists also justified the reopening with pseudo-scientific claims that denied the possibility of contracting COVID-19 within a classroom or on campus. While the panelists addressed how many students and workers may have “concerns and fears” about returning to campus amid a raging pandemic, they largely downplayed the risk of campuses becoming superspreaders for the virus as they have throughout the pandemic. One attendee at the town hall event asked the UIC panelists about the danger of the surge of the Omicron variant: “COVID numbers in the current wave are on a downslide, yet several times they were as high as at the highest point of the Fall/Winter 2020-21. I don’t understand the insistence that we go back to class next week. Wouldn’t it make sense to delay a few more weeks, when COVID trends indicate it will be substantially safer?”
Harvard tells students with COVID-19 to “self-isolate” and conduct their own contact tracing In a stark departure from policies during the fall 2021 semester, students who test positive for COVID-19 will not be required to move into university-provided isolation housing but are being advised to “self-isolate” in their dorms or off-campus housing instead. The university’s change in policy comes as Harvard COVID-19 cases are soaring. As of January 14, Harvard reported 603 positive cases and a positivity rate of 3.36 percent for the previous seven days. On Friday, Massachusetts reported 13,935 confirmed cases of COVID-19 and 102 deaths. The state reported 3,105 hospitalizations for COVID-19, with nearly half of those hospitalized—1,503—among vaccinated individuals. The seven-day positivity rate in the state was 19.37 percent. As of January 13, 97 percent of Harvard employees and 98 percent of students had received two doses of the vaccine. But as the state’s numbers show, vaccination is no insurance against infection or hospitalization from COVID-19. Harvard University Health Services (HUHS) Director Giang T. Nguyen wrote in an email: “The highly transmissible Omicron variant is driving the majority of the cases we are seeing at Harvard, as is the case nationally.” He added: “Last week we reported 970 new infections at a time when campus density is relatively low. For comparison, our case count was 140 during the first week after the Thanksgiving break.” In another change, Harvard will no longer be conducting contact tracing and is asking students to do it themselves. Harvard University Health Services will no longer call students who test positive for COVID-19. The university has been prompted to make these radical changes—which have the potential of driving up COVID-19 cases, sickness and death among students, staff and the wider community—“in accordance with recommendations from public health experts and guidance from state and federal public health experts and guidance from state and federal public health agencies,” according to the Harvard Crimson. These sweeping rule changes are directly influenced by the recent guideline changes coming from the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). In line with this guidance, Harvard will no longer require students who test positive to move into university-provided isolation housing but will instead ask students to isolate in their dorms for five days. This is to be followed by five days of “strict mask-wearing” if they have no symptoms or symptoms that are “resolving.” Fully vaccinated individuals who come into contact with a person testing positive will not be required to quarantine if they are asymptomatic, HUHS informed students. Those who are unvaccinated or have not received a booster shot will be required to quarantine for five days following exposure.
Colleges lost 465,000 students this fall. The continued erosion of enrollment is raising alarm -Student enrollment at colleges fell once again in the fall, a report has found, prompting some to worry whether the declines experienced during the pandemic could become an enduring trend. The National Student Clearinghouse Research Center on Thursday said undergraduate enrollment in fall 2021 dropped 3.1 percent, or by 465,300 students, compared with a year earlier. The drop is similar to that of the previous fall and contributes to a 6.6 percent decline in undergraduate enrollment since 2019.That means more than 1 million students have gone missing from higher education in the wake of thecoronavirus pandemic, according to the Clearinghouse. Even as campuses have largely reopened and returned to some semblance of normalcy, people are not pursuing credentials at the same rate as before. Experts worry that the unabating declines signal a shift in attitudes about higher education and could threaten the economic trajectory of a generation. “The longer this continues, the more it starts to build its own momentum as a cultural shift and not just a short-term effect of the pandemic disruptions,” Doug Shapiro, the executive director of the National Student Clearinghouse Research Center, said in an interview. “Students are questioning the value of college. They may be looking at friends who graduated last year or the year before who didn’t go, and they seem to be doing fine. They’re working; their wages are up.”Job openings are at near-record highs, and the lure of what many economists say is a job-seekers’ market may be siphoning off would-be students, especially adult learners. Indeed, one of the sharpest enrollment declines this fall was among people 24 and older, particularly at four-year colleges, according to Clearinghouse data.“We have traditionally seen that when the economy is strong there are dips in enrollment. The problem has been that in the past several years, regardless of the state of the economy, enrollment in higher education has not increased,” said Wil Del Pilar, vice president of higher education at the Education Trust, an advocacy group.The number of associate-degree-seeking students enrolled at four-year institutions plummeted in the fall, down 11 percent from a year ago. The drop was less severe at community colleges, where the decline in head counts was 3.4 percent. Still, public two-year colleges remain the hardest-hit sector since the start of the pandemic, with enrollment down 13.2 percent since 2019. Leaders of community colleges have said some of their students struggled to pivot online at the start of the health crisis because of spotty Internet access, while others took a step back from school because of family obligations.Because community colleges educate a large share of students from low-to-moderate-income families, higher education experts worry a continuation of enrollment declines could erode their earnings potential. Shapiro is broadly concerned that tepid enrollment throughout higher education will impact the nation for years to come.
Drop in college enrollment threatens to cause long-term economic, social consequences - Slower economic growth. Continued labor shortages. Lower life expectancy. Higher levels of divorce. More demand for social services, but less tax revenue to pay for it. A sharp and persistent decline in the number of Americans going to college — down by nearly a millionsince the start of the pandemic, according to newly released figures, and by nearly 3 million over the last decade — could alter American society for the worse, even as economic rival nations such as China vastly increase university enrollment, researchers warn.“It is a crisis, and I don’t think it’s widely recognized yet that it is,” said Jason Lane, dean of Miami University’s College of Education, Health and Society.The reasons for the drop in enrollment have been widely discussed — declining birthrates, the widespread immediate availability of jobs, greater public skepticism of the need for higher education — but the potential long-term effects of it have gotten less attention.People without education past high school earn significantly less than those who go on to earn bachelor’s degrees, and are more likely to live in poverty and less likely to be employed. They’re more prone to depression, live shorter lives, need more government assistance, pay less in taxes, divorce more frequently, and vote and volunteer less often..With fewer people going to college, “society is going to be less healthy,” Lane said. “It’s going to be less economically successful. It’s going to be harder to find folks to fill the jobs of the future, and there will be lower tax revenues because there won’t be as many people in high-paying jobs. It will be harder for innovation to occur.”The growing gap in educational attainment could also worsen existing divisions over politics, socioeconomic status, race and national origin, said Adriana Lleras-Muney, an economist at UCLA.“We’re seeing a lot more people moving into the very unlucky group instead of the lucky group,” said Lleras-Muney. “That will be very bad for them personally. It will start showing up in their health, their likelihood of remaining in marriage — you name it.”Among those most affected: children from low-income families, according to the National Student Clearinghouse Research Center, which reports “unprecedented” declines in the number of students from high-poverty or low-income high schools who immediately go on to higher education.
Infant deaths from RSV are much higher than previously known: study - A new study found that nearly one in ten of all deceased infants under 6 months old were infected with Respiratory Syncytial Virus (RSV). Two-thirds of infant fatalities from RSV occurred in the community and would have been excluded from mortality estimates based on hospital data. RSV is a common virus that produces cold-like symptoms and is merely a nuisance for the vast majority of people who contract it. But for babies—especially infants in low- and middle-income countries who lack adequate access to medical care—the virus can be fatal. Prior research has estimated that about 120,000 infants die from RSV each year, but this figure is based on modeling conducted in hospital-based settings and does not account for RSV deaths that occur in the community, which are not captured in hospital-based surveillance. Now, a new study led by Boston University School of Public Health (BUSPH) researchers has found that the true burden of RSV infant mortality is substantially higher than what was previously believed. Published in the journal The Lancet Global Health, the study used systematic surveillance to measure the presence of RSV among infants who died in medical facilities or in the community and found that the virus was present in 7 to 9 percent of infants under 6 months old and was primarily concentrated in infants under 3 months old. Notably, two-thirds of these deaths occurred in the community—i.e., among infants who never received medical care in a hospital and were overlooked in previous facility-based surveillance.
Kidneys From a Genetically Altered Pig Are Implanted in a Brain-Dead Patient - Surgeons at the University of Alabama at Birmingham reported on Thursday that they had for the first time successfully transplanted kidneys from a genetically modified pig into the abdomen of a 57-year-old brain-dead man. The announcement was the latest in a series of remarkable feats in organ transplantation. Earlier this month, surgeons at the University of Maryland transplanted a heart from a genetically modified pig into a 57-year-old patient with heart failure. That patient is still alive and under observation.In September, surgeons at NYU Langone Health attached a kidney from a genetically modified pig to a brain-dead individual who was being maintained on a ventilator. Though it remained outside the body, the kidney worked normally, making urine and creatinine, a waste product.The U.A.B. surgery was reported in The American Journal of Transplantation, the first time a pig-to-human organ transplantation has been described in a peer-reviewed medical journal.According to the surgical team, the pig kidneys started functioning and making urine after about 23 minutes and continued to do so for three days, though one kidney made more urine than the other.The patients’s own kidneys were removed, and there were no signs indicating r ejection of the pig organs.
Patients with brain fog after COVID-19 have abnormalities in cerebrospinal fluid - Brain fog. It has become an inexplicable side effect of COVID-19 infection, but researchers now report they have discovered a possible reason why it happens. In a small study, investigators found abnormalities in the cerebrospinal fluid of some COVID-19 patients who developed thinking problems.The symptoms "manifest as problems remembering recent events, coming up with names or words, staying focused, and issues with holding onto and manipulating information, as well as slowed processing speed," explained study senior author Dr. Joanna Hellmuth, from the Memory and Aging Center at the University of California, San Francisco.Brain fog is a common aftereffect of COVID infection, striking about 67% of 156 patients at a post-COVID clinic in New York, a recent study found.In this latest study, the researchers analyzed the cerebrospinal fluid of 13 people who had thinking and memory problems after COVID-19 and of four recovered COVID-19 patients with no cognitive symptoms.The average age of those with cognitive symptoms was 48, compared with 39 for those with no cognitive symptoms. The cerebrospinal fluid samples were collected an average of 10 months after the patients' first COVID-19 symptoms. None of the patients were hospitalized for COVID-19.Cerebrospinal fluid anomalies were found in 10 of the 13 patients with cognitive symptoms, but not in any of the four with no cognitive symptoms, according to the study published Wednesday in the journal Annals of Clinical and Translational Neurology.The cerebrospinal fluid of patients with cognitive symptoms had elevated levels of protein, suggesting inflammation, as well as unexpected antibodies found in an activated immune system.Some of those antibodies were found in both cerebrospinal fluid and blood, indicating a systemic inflammatory response, or were found only in cerebrospinal fluid, suggesting brain inflammation.While the targets of these antibodies are unknown, they could be "turncoat" antibodies that attack the body itself, according to the researchers. "It's possible that the immune system, stimulated by the virus, may be functioning in an unintended pathological way," said Hellmuth, who is principal investigator of the UCSF Coronavirus Neurocognitive Study and is also affiliated with the UCSF Weill Institute for Neurosciences.
Evidence for Biological Age Acceleration and Telomere Shortening in COVID-19 Survivors In this study, a cohort of 117 COVID-19 survivors (post-COVID-19) and 144 non-infected volunteers (COVID-19-free) was analyzed using pyrosequencing of defined CpG islands previously identified as suitable for biological age determination. The results show a consistent biological age increase in the post-COVID-19 population, determining a DeltaAge acceleration of 10.45 ± 7.29 years (+5.25 years above the range of normality) compared with 3.68 ± 8.17 years for the COVID-19-free population (p < 0.0001). A significant telomere shortening parallels this finding in the post-COVID-19 cohort compared with COVID-19-free subjects (p < 0.0001). Additionally, ACE2 expression was decreased in post-COVID-19 patients, compared with the COVID-19-free population, while DPP-4 did not change. In light of these observations, we hypothesize that some epigenetic alterations are associated with the post-COVID-19 condition, particularly in younger patients (< 60 years).
How the COVID-19 pandemic might age us - As the COVID-19 pandemic continues, we might feel we’re ageing faster than before. That’s not as strange as it sounds. Accelerated ageing can result from several factors, some of which have been highlighted by the pandemic. Exposure to infectious diseases, chronic stress and loneliness can all affect the ageing process, exacerbating health conditions and shortening lives. Genetic variations influence how quickly people age, but behaviours and life events can also influence epigenetic age — including exposure to infection. Studies suggest that infection with HIV, for example, accelerates the ageing and death of immune cells6. Ferrucci thinks the SARS-CoV-2 virus that causes COVID-19 can also result in chronic inflammation and accelerated biological ageing. It was clear early in the pandemic that older people, especially those with underlying medical conditions, are particularly likely to experience uncontrolled inflammatory responses called cytokine storms, as well as severe symptoms and death, as a result of COVID-19. This might be partly because, as people age, they are more likely to have high levels of inflammatory markers in their blood, Ferrucci says. One hypothesis, known as inflammaging, holds that this inflammation contributes to elevated risks7 not just for a severe case of COVID-19, but also for cardiovascular disease, kidney disease, dementia, cancer and other problems that become more common with age. In COVID-19, inflammation seems to arise through several pathways, including cellular senescence, which, DePinho says, leads to a cascade of immune responses that include the secretion of cytokines and other inflammatory molecules. Cellular senescence has also been implicated in cancer, osteoarthritis and other ageing-related diseases. Those processes can affect people of all ages, Ferrucci says. When inflammatory reactions to the COVID-19 virus are high, the immune system can become less resilient in the long term, potentially leaving some people less able to resist the effects of ageing. “Their compensatory mechanisms have already been consumed by fighting COVID-19,” he adds.
A possible tool for predicting who will experience long COVID - A team of researchers from University Hospital Zurich, the University of Zurich, Uster Hospital, Limmattal Hospital and City Hospital, all in Switzerland, has developed a tool that could possibly predict which patients infected with COVID-19 will develop post-acute COVID-19 syndrome (PACS), also known as long COVID. In their paper published in the journal Nature Communications, the group describes their study of hundreds of COVID patients. Not long after the pandemic began, doctors reported that some patients who recover from COVID-19 continue to experience symptoms such as a loss of smell and/or taste, difficulty breathing, and what they described as "brain fog," long after they were virus-free. With the pandemic now in its third year, many patients continue to experience PACS for unknown reasons. In this new effort, the researchers studied the medical histories of 175 people who had COVID-19 and 40 people who remained uninfected throughout the study, which lasted for approximately one year. During that time, they found that 82.2 percent of those who had severe infections wound up with long COVID as opposed to just 53.9 percent of the patients with mild infections. They also found that patients with PACS also produced fewer IgM and IgG3 antibodies throughout the course of their infection than did those with milder infections. Antibody levels of infected patients who did not develop PACS rose as infection set in. The researchers also found that other risk factors played a role, as well—patients with asthma and those who were older tended to be more likely to develop PACS, for example. The researchers combined all these factors to create a risk factor scale and tested it on another 395 COVID-19 patients. They found the accuracy of the scale varied depending on a variety of factors, but overall, found the scale effective for predicting which infected patients would develop PACS. Notably, the scale only applies to people after infection; thus, more work is required to better understand why patients develop PACS and which people are more at risk should they be infected.
FDA approves use of antiviral drug remdesivir as an outpatient therapy for people with covid-19 - Federal regulators Friday approved the use of the antiviral drug remdesivir for covid-19 outpatients at high risk of being hospitalized, providing a new treatment option for doctors struggling with shortages of effective drugs to counter the coronavirus. The Food and Drug Administration said the intravenous treatment, which had been limited to patients in the hospital, could be administered to outpatients with mild-to-moderate illness. Remdesivir, manufactured by Gilead Sciences, was among the first coronavirus treatments authorized in 2020. The drug received full agency approval later that year for people 12 and older. Treatment of younger children is permitted under an emergency use authorization, but Friday’s expansion to outpatients includes both age groups. The FDA action was welcomed by physicians scrambling to keep covid patients out of the hospital as waves of infections crowd medical facilities. Among the hurdles for doctors: Two of the three authorized monoclonal antibody treatments are ineffective against omicron; there are shortages of the one antibody drug that still works; and demand for recently cleared antiviral pills sharply exceeds supply. “The good news is it’s another tool in the treatment toolbox,” said Helen Boucher, an infectious-disease physician and interim dean for Tufts University School of Medicine. Tufts began offering remdesivir, also called Veklury, on an outpatient basis late last year, Boucher said. Several other large medical centers also are administering it. Because the medication had been approved for inpatient care, physicians are permitted to prescribe it “off-label” for patients not in the hospital. Boucher said she expects many more doctors and hospitals to begin treating outpatients with the medication now that the FDA has explicitly approved use for outpatients. David Boulware, an infectious-disease physician at the University of Minnesota Medical School, said the expanded FDA clearance was important to ensure reimbursement from Medicare and private insurers. Sometimes, payers are reluctant to cover medications used off-label.
FDA ends for now use of two monoclonal antibodies, spurring a halt in federal shipments of the covid-19 treatments - The Food and Drug Administration on Monday took two monoclonal antibody therapies off the list of covid-19 treatments for now, saying the medications should not be used anywhere in the United States because they are ineffective against the dominant omicron variant.As a result, the Department of Health and Human Services, which distributes covid treatments to states, notified state health officials that it has halted distribution of the antibody medications made by Regeneron Pharmaceuticals and Eli Lilly, according to an email sent to the states and obtained by The Washington Post.Patrizia Cavazzoni, director of the FDA’s Center for Drug Evaluation and Research, said in a statement that data show the two antibody treatments “are highly unlikely to be active against the omicron variant, which is circulating at a very high frequency throughout the United States.” Omicron is responsible for more than 99 percent of cases in the United States, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.The FDA official said it is “highly unlikely that covid-19 patients seeking care in the U.S. at this time are infected with a variant other than omicron, and these treatments are not authorized to be used at this time.” Cavazzoni added the antibodies could be used again if a future variant emerges that is susceptible to the therapies.Administration officials hope that ending federal distribution of the two monoclonal antibody treatments to the states will prevent covid-19 patients from being given drugs that do not work against omicron. Senior officials last week called health officials in several states to urge them to stop using the Regeneron and Lilly drugs and pointed them to alternatives. Several treatments remain effective against omicron, including sotrovimab — a monoclonal antibody made by GlaxoSmithKline and Vir Biotechnology — and antiviral pills by Pfizer and by Merck and its partner, Ridgeback Biotherapeutics. In addition, the use of the antiviral drug remdesivir as an outpatient therapy recently got the green light from regulators.
Study finds 1 in 10 people with COVID-19 remains infectious beyond 10 days - One in 10 people with COVID-19 still could be infectious beyond 10 days, and some could remain so for as long as two months, a new study suggests. U.K. researchers reported that a new test can detect whether the coronavirus is potentially still active. They used it to analyze samples from 176 people who had tested positive on standard PCR tests.After 10 days, 13% of the people had levels of active virus, indicating they could potentially still be infectious. These levels continued in some of the participants for up to 68 days, according to the study. "While this is a relatively small study, our results suggest that potentially active virus may sometimes persist beyond a 10-day period, and could pose a potential risk of onward transmission," said Lorna Harries, a University of Exeter Medical School professor who oversaw the study. "Furthermore, there was nothing clinically remarkable about these people, which means we wouldn't be able to predict who they are," Harries added in a university news release. Standard PCR tests check for the presence of viral fragments and can reveal if someone recently had the coronavirus, but not whether it's still active. The new test -- which is not yet available -- only gives a positive result when the virus is active and potentially infectious.
Covid reinfection: how likely are you to catch virus multiple times? - Anecdotal reports of Covid reinfection in the UK are growing, including people testing positive just weeks apart in December and January, or having had the virus three or even four times. Children are also being seen with reinfections. Reinfection figures tend to refer to the detection of a second, or subsequent, Covid infection, regardless of the variant involved. The risk of reinfection is likely to depend on a range of factors: for example, data suggests it is higher in unvaccinated people and potentially in those whose previous infection was more mild with a lower immune response. It also depends on the variant: one expert said the risk of reinfection with Omicron soon after a first Omicron infection would be lower than Delta followed by Omicron, and how long ago someone was vaccinated. Experts say the dose to which someone is exposed may also be important.The UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA) uses the definition of a possible reinfection as a case 90 days or more after a previous confirmed Covid infection, in part because it excludes those who simply shed the virus for longer after infection. According to the latest figures for England from the UKHSA, from the start of the pandemic up to 9 January this year there were 425,890 possible reinfections, with 109,936 found in the week ending 9 January, accounting for almost 11% of all cases that week. Very few possible reinfections are “confirmed” as that requires genetic sequencing. What’s more, with few people in the community having access to tests in the first wave, many first infections may not have been counted. “With the combination of being two years into the pandemic, a few rounds of antibody waning, two major waves of immune evasion by Delta and then Omicron, there’s fairly rampant reinfection,” said Danny Altmann, a professor of immunology at Imperial College London. According to scientists at Imperial College London, after taking into account a host of factors Omicron was associated with somewhere between a 4.38 and 6.63-fold higher risk of reinfection, compared with Delta. The team add that this means protection against catching Covid arising from a previous infection within the past six months has fallen from about 85% before Omicron turned up to somewhere between 0% and 27%. The drop is not surprising given that Omicron has been found to have the ability to dodge the body’s immune responses to a significant degree. UKHSA data shows that for cases with a specimen date between 1 November and 29 December 2021 there were 2,855 probable reinfections 29 to 89 days after a previous infection – although some of these may reflect ongoing detection from an initial infection. While the UKHSA notes it is difficult to directly compare the situation between variants – as there are many important changing factors at play, including overall levels of immunity in the population – Omicron’s immunity-dodging powers are likely to play a role in these reinfections.
Over 66 percent of Omicron cases are reinfections, study showsMore than two-thirds of cases of the Omicron variant of COVID-19 are among people who have been reinfected with the virus, a new study said Wednesday. Imperial College London researchers reported that around 3,582 people — or about 66% of participants in the study — who tested positive in January had already been infected with the virus, CNBC reported. An additional 7.5% of the infected participants said they believed they had previously had the virus but did not confirm that with a test. The study looked at more than 100,000 PCR tests that were collected across England between Jan. 5 and Jan. 20. The study’s authors said in a paper released Wednesday that the Omicron variant has hit England at “unprecedented levels” and has nearly replaced Delta as the country’s most prominent variant, CNBC reported. The study comes as officials announced that mask-wearing will no longer be mandated and the public will no longer be advised to work from home as of Thursday in England. Health officials said last month that roughly half of the Omicron cases in the UK were among the fully vaccinated. Almost 85% of the country’s eligible population is fully vaccinated and 64% have gotten a booster shot, CNBC reported.
CDC study finds shorter hospital stays during omicron wave, even as infections and death toll mount - Federal health officials reported Tuesday that the omicron variant caused less severe illness in hospitalized patients than earlier virus lineages, even though its explosive transmissibility has caused far more infections and led to more than 2,200 deaths a day on average, one of the highest tolls since early last year.Researchers at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said Tuesday that people hospitalized with the omicron variant had shorter stays and less frequent admission to intensive care compared with those hospitalized with other coronavirus variants.Despite record infections and hospitalizations caused by omicron, the percentage of hospitalized patients with severe illness is lower compared with those in earlier pandemic waves. That lower disease severity is partly the result of immune protection from higher vaccination coverage among those 5 and older, booster use and previous infection, as well as the potential lower virulence of the virus itself, according to the report. Other studies have suggested that the variant is less able to penetrate deep in the lungs. That pattern notwithstanding, the virus spreads from person to person with frightening speed, resulting in significant numbers of hospitalizations and deaths. On Tuesday, the seven-day average of daily deaths in the United States was 2,230, the highest since late February 2021. The CDC report’s findings are consistent with recent studies from health systems in California and Texas, as well as from South Africa, England and Scotland. The CDC used information from multiple surveillance systems and a large health-care database to compare disease severity during three periods of the pandemic: winter 2020-2021, the delta period (July 15 to October 2021), and the early omicron period (Dec. 19, 2021, to Jan. 15).Vaccinations jumped from about 1.5 million people during that first period to 207 million fully inoculated and 1.6 million boosted by Jan. 10.Investigators found the average length of hospital stay during omicron (5.5 days) was 31 percent shorter than during the winter of 2020-21, and about 27 percent shorter than during delta. The percentage of patients admitted to an ICU was also lower during the omicron wave compared with the two earlier pandemic periods, as was the percentage of patients who received ventilator support, the report found.
The High Cost of Disparaging Natural Immunity to Covid – WSJ - Public-health officials ruined many lives by insisting that workers with natural immunity to Covid-19 be fired if they weren’t fully vaccinated. But after two years of accruing data, the superiority of natural immunity over vaccinated immunity is clear. By firing staff with natural immunity, employers got rid of those least likely to infect others. It’s time to reinstate those employees with an apology.For most of last year, many of us called for the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention to release its data on reinfection rates, but the agency refused. Finally last week, the CDC released data from New York and California, which demonstrated natural immunity was 2.8 times as effective in preventing hospitalization and 3.3 to 4.7 times as effective in preventing Covid infection compared with vaccination.Yet the CDC spun the report to fit its narrative, bannering the conclusion “vaccination remains the safest strategy.” It based this conclusion on the finding that hybrid immunity—the combination of prior infection and vaccination—was associated with a slightly lower risk of testing positive for Covid. But those with hybrid immunity had a similar low rate of hospitalization (3 per 10,000) to those with natural immunity alone. In other words, vaccinating people who had already had Covid didn’t significantly reduce the risk of hospitalization.Similarly, the National Institutes of Health repeatedly has dismissed natural immunity by arguing that its duration is unknown—then failing to conduct studies to answer the question. Because of the NIH’s inaction, my Johns Hopkins colleagues and I conducted the study. We found that among 295 unvaccinated people who previously had Covid, antibodies were present in 99% of them up to nearly two years after infection. We also found that natural immunity developed from prior variants reduced the risk of infection with the Omicron variant. Meanwhile, the effectiveness of the two-dose Moderna vaccine against infection (not severe disease) declines to 61% against Delta and 16% against Omicron at six months, according to a recent Kaiser Southern California study. In general, Pfizer’s Covid vaccines have been less effective than Moderna’s.The CDC study and ours confirm what more than 100 other studies on natural immunity have found: The immune system works. The largest of these studies, from Israel, found that natural immunity was 27 times as effective as vaccinated immunity in preventing symptomatic illness.
SARS-CoV-2 can remain active for longer than recommended quarantine period, study shows - In a 38-year-old man who manifested mild symptoms of COVID-19 for 20 days, the novel coronavirus continued to be detected and to undergo mutations for 232 days. If he had not been given continuous medical care, maintained social distancing and worn a mask, he could have spread the virus throughout these seven months. The atypical case of infection by SARS-CoV-2 was part of a study involving 38 Brazilian patients followed on a weekly basis between April and November 2020 by researchers affiliated with the Pasteur-USP Scientific Platform, a partnership between France's Pasteur Institute, the University of Sao Paulo (USP) and Oswaldo Cruz Foundation (Fiocruz) in Brazil. The patients were followed until they tested negative twice or three times consecutively by RT-qPCR. The study was supported by FAPESP. An article reporting its findings is published in the journal Frontiers in Medicine. It serves as an alert regarding the risk of limiting quarantine for COVID-19 patients to seven, ten or even 14 days after they test positive, as initially prescribed by protocols to combat the disease. It also reinforces the significance of vaccination, social distancing, and mask wearing. "Of the 38 cases we tracked, two men and a woman were atypical in the sense that the virus was continuously detected in their bodies for more than 70 days. Based on this result, we can say that about 8% of people infected by SARS-CoV-2 may be able to transmit the virus for more than two months, without necessarily manifesting any symptoms during the final stage of the infection," "We wanted to know if a period of 14 days was really long enough for the virus to stop being detectable. We concluded that it wasn't. It can take a month for a patient to test negative, and in some cases included in our study the patients remained positive for 71 to 232 days,"
Breakthrough infections with SARS-CoV-2 omicron despite mRNA vaccine booster dose - A group of German visitors who had received three doses of SARS-CoV-2 vaccines, including at least two doses of an mRNA vaccine, experienced breakthrough infections with omicron between late November and early December, 2021, while in Cape Town, South Africa. Upon arrival during the first half of November, 2021, each individual tested negative for SARS-CoV-2 by PCR and provided records of complete vaccination, including booster or third, doses administered via intramuscular injection using homologous (n=5) and heterologous (n=2) vaccination courses (appendix p 3). Six individuals were fully vaccinated with BNT162b2 (Comirnaty, Pfizer–BioNTech, Mainz, Germany), five of whom received a third (booster) dose of BNT162b2 in October or early November, 2021. One individual had received a full dose of CX-024414 (Spikevax, Moderna, Cambridge, MA, USA) in early October, 2021; this was not in line with the European Medicines Agency recommendations at that time, which suggested a half dose to boost healthy individuals. The seventh individual received an initial dose of ChAdOx1-S (Vaxzevria, AstraZeneca, Cambridge, UK), followed by a dose of BNT162b2 for completion of primary immunisation, and a booster dose of the same vaccine. Except for the CX-024414 booster, all vaccinations were in accordance with European recommendations. Nobody reported a history of SARS-CoV-2 infection.During a marked increase in incidence of SARS-CoV-2 infections in the Western Cape province, these individuals observed onset of respiratory symptoms between Nov 30 and Dec 2, 2021. SARS-CoV-2 infections were diagnosed by ISO 15189-accredited diagnostic laboratories using molecular assays approved by the national regulator..We obtained swab and serum samples 2–4 days after onset of symptoms. All patients were placed in domestic isolation and used a daily symptom diary to document the course of disease during the observation period of 21 days.Illness was classified as mild (n=4) or moderate (n=3; shortness of breath) according to National Institutes of Health COVID-19 Treatment Guidelines. Two individuals were asymptomatic by the end of the observation period (day 21). Blood oxygenation levels (SPO2) remained in the normal range (>94%) without exception and none of the patients required hospitalisation. Prevalence of symptoms over time is provided in the appendix (p 4).All seven individuals were infected with omicron (PANGO lineage B.1.1.529, Nextstrain clade 21K). Viral loads ranged from 4·07 to 8·22 (mean 6·38) log10 viral RNA copies per mL of swab eluate. Anti-spike antibody levels ranged from 15 000 arbitrary units (AU) per mL to more than 40 000 AU/mL, with a mean of approximately 22 000 AU/mL of serum (appendix p 3). These were the first documented breakthrough infections with the omicron variant in fully vaccinated individuals after receipt of booster vaccine doses.
Breakthrough COVID-19 infections spur strong antibody responses - A recent study looked at the strength, durability and breadth of neutralizing antibody responses generated by breakthrough infections in individuals vaccinated against SARS-CoV2. The findings are published this week in Cell, one of the scientific journals of Cell Press. Alexandra Walls and David Veesler in the Department of Biochemistry at the University of Washington in Seattle led the project.Characteristics of the Delta and Omicron coronavirus variants of concern include enhanced transmissibility and immune evasion even in non-immunologically naïve individuals, compared to the ancestral pandemic coronavirus.These characteristics, and the waning of immunity from vaccines, have led to breakthrough infections in vaccinated individuals. For the most part, otherwise healthy people who are vaccinated against the SARS-CoV-2 usually do not have severe symptoms if they do end up contracting the virus.The researchers wanted to understand what effect catching the virus after being vaccinated has on neutralizing antibodies, and to see how durable and broad these responses are. Their hope is that advancing such knowledge will help guide vaccination policies and pandemic mitigation strategies.Through their project the researchers learned that the degree of antibody response depended on whether a person has had one, two, three, or four exposures to the spike protein through infection, vaccination, or a mixture of the two. The scientists also checked antibody responses in groups of individuals who had been vaccinated after having COVID-19, those who were previously vaccinated and experienced a breakthrough infection, those who were vaccinated only, and those who were boosted and therefore vaccinated three times.
Breakthrough COVID-19 cases in Minn. show vaccine effectiveness - Breakthrough infections might be more common in the omicron era, but fully vaccinated Minnesotans make up less of the state's COVID-19 hospitalizations and deaths. New state breakthrough data on Monday showed that fully vaccinated Minnesotans made up 55% of 20,502 infections reported in the week ending Dec. 25, but only 26% of the 116 COVID-19 deaths. The share of deaths involving vaccinated Minnesotans was as high as 50% in mid-October, before booster doses were broadly available. The data suggest a payoff to booster shot campaigns in Minnesota, which ranks second among states with nearly 53% of fully vaccinated residents receiving recommended extra doses, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Overall, nearly 3.8 million Minnesotans have been fully vaccinated with the initial series, or 67% of the state's population. The vaccination level magnifies the disparity in risk for unvaccinated Minnesotans, who make up 33% of the state's population but 64% of COVID-19 deaths and 72% of hospitalizations since May. State health officials are hopeful that vaccination progress has blunted the omicron wave, which has caused record infection numbers but appears to be peaking. Mayo Clinic's predictive 14-day model has pushed the state's peak infection date from Jan. 26 to Feb. 3, but sewage sampling at the Metro Wastewater Treatment Plant in Bloomington already has shown a decline in viral prevalence.
Cancer treatment may inhibit immune response to COVID-19 vaccination — A study by researchers at Mayo Clinic Cancer Center has found that patients with cancer who receive chemotherapy ― and some targeted therapies, such as CDK4/6 inhibitors and therapies targeted at B cells ― may mount an inadequate immune response to COVID-19 vaccination. The findings are published in Mayo Clinic Proceedings: Innovation, Quality & Outcomes. "It is important for patients with cancer who are receiving chemotherapy to receive a COVID-19 vaccine," says Saranya Chumsri, M.D., a Mayo Clinic hematologist and oncologist, and author of the paper. Dr. Chumsri says this advice also applies to patients with cancer who are taking a CDK 4/6 inhibitors. These inhibitors are a newer class of medicines used to treat hormone-receptor-positive and HER2-negative breast cancers. Dr. Chumsri says that while CDK 4/6 inhibitors are not conventionally considered to be as immunosuppressive as chemotherapy, her research on patients with breast cancer who take these drugs found that they exhibited less optimal neutralizing antibody activity. Dr. Chumsri recommends that antibody levels be tested in these patients after vaccination, and they should consider receiving booster vaccinations for COVID-19. Dr. Chumsri anticipates having additional data later this year regarding broader immune responses to COVID-19 vaccinations, including cellular and antibody responses in patients receiving chemotherapy and targeted therapies with booster vaccinations.
Study finds high levels of omicron-fighting antibodies four months after Pfizer booster - A new study shows high levels of coronavirus antibodies that fight the omicron variant four months after a third dose of the Pfizer vaccine, a positive sign for the durability of a booster shot’s effectiveness.The study from researchers at Pfizer, BioNTech and the University of Texas Medical Branch shows virus-fighting antibodies enduring four months after the third dose, helping answer the key question of how long protection from the booster shot lasts.Eric Topol, professor of molecular medicine at Scripps Research, tweeted in response to the study that antibody levels were “unexpectedly still quite high” after four months, “which is great.”There was still some decline in antibody levels between one month and four months after the third dose, but the amount of decline against omicron was similar to that against the original strain of the virus, Pfizer said.Pei-Yong Shi, one of the authors of the study at the University of Texas Medical Branch, told The Washington Post that the study “shows that at least up to four months, post-dose three, there is still substantial neutralizing activity against omicron.”The results add to a growing body of evidence on the importance of booster shots, which health officials are urging people to get in the face of a surge from the omicron variant.Last week, a Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) study found that a third shot was 90 percent effective against hospitalization,compared to just 57 percent effectiveness against omicron for someone who is six months past their second shot.
Pfizer Launches Clinical Trial for Omicron Booster Awfully Late….What Gives? - by Yves Smith - As much fun as it is to lift up rocks and examine creepy crawlies, even then, sometimes less is more. So we’ll stick to the high points of the latest Pfizer vaccine anomaly, this one on the stop and go Omicron booster, and let readers, particularly readers with intel or at least knowledge of clinical trials and “normal” FDA approval processes, opine further. Recall that one of the widely-touted reasons for being excited about the brave new world of mRNA vaccines was that new versions designed to target mutations could ostensively be developed in a week or two. Mind you, it was understood that it would still take time for them to be properly tested for efficacy and then subject to regulatory review/approval. Recall further that despite the supposed miraculous tunabilty of mRNA vaccines, no one launched a Delta booster. We discussed this lapse in a December post: One reason was that Delta overlapped with the older variants a bit before becoming dominant. Second is that the performance of the original vaccines didn’t fall as much in reducing risk of hospitalizations and death as it appears to when boosted for Omicron. Sadly the vaccines did do more to reduce contagion of the wild type virus than Delta, but that change doesn’t get much mention. But as far as I can tell, the idea of developing a new vaccine targeting Delta wasn’t even seriously entertained. Our GM described an additional issue which I never saw mentioned in the press: the Delta variations were orthogonal to some other variants. So while the original vaccine was pretty effective against wild type and Delta and the “orthogonal” variants, one aimed at Delta would not do much to combat the orthogonal variants. So it made sense to stick with the original vaccine as a reasonable “good enough for all current seasons” compromise. Recall additionally that when the obviously fast-moving and super-different Omicron burst onto the scene, experts who weren’t cognitively or financially captured were warning it would significantly or entirely evade the current vaccines. That concern was quickly confirmed by who fell to early outbreaks in Norway and Denmark. And then at the end of November, the great unwashed public was subjected to narrative conflict. As we wrote then: After repeatedly claiming that a Biden Administration would “follow the science” on Covid, it now appears to be hoist on its petard of instead relying on least effort approaches combined with better propaganda, aka placing all its bets on vaccines. These headlines illustrate the problem. The first is the lead in the Wall Street Journal; the second is from the Financial Times: Recall finally that early in the Omicron march across the globe, Pfizer said it would have an Omicron booster read to roll by early March. But the Biden administration bizarrely went to war with that idea. Hoisting again from our late December post, Maybe No Omicron Boosters?: it’s disconcerting to see what sure looks like official reducing of expectations regarding getting an Omicron booster around March, as Pfizer and now others have indicated. From Top regulator says need for Omicron vaccine depends on staying power of variant in STAT:
Immunity against variants found in Sinovac recipients who got mixed vaccine booster - People who were originally fully vaccinated with the Chinese-made Sinovac COVID-19 vaccine were shown to develop a high degree of immunity after receiving booster doses of either Sinovac, AstraZeneca, Pfizer or Johnson & Johnson vaccines. In the Brazilian government-funded phase 4 study conducted by researchers from Brazil and Oxford University, patients who received an initial vaccination from Sinovac shots were found to develop significantly higher immune responses when given a booster shot from another vaccine manufacturer. Researchers noted only around a fifth of participants aged 18-60 and less than 10 percent of those over the age of 60 had detectable levels of antibodies when the study began. In all observations, the three vaccines that came from companies other than Sinovac were found to induce a greater immune response. According to researchers, mixed vaccine doses were shown to induce antibodies at "8–22-fold higher" than when older adult patients were given another Sinovac dose. They also found that administering vaccines other than Sinovac's increased immunity against both the omicron and delta variants. The study observed over 1,200 participants in Brazil who had received the Sinovac vaccine around six months before the study. Participants were randomly chosen to receive one of the four vaccines that were used. "This study shows that the inactivated vaccine, CoronaVac, can be successfully boosted with a range of different vaccines, with the strongest responses when a viral vector or RNA vaccine is used,"
New COVID variant? Scientists monitoring BA 2, 'stealth' subvariant of omicron - Even as the omicron COVID-19 variant continues to sweep the globe, scientists are now monitoring a new mutation of omicron, dubbed BA.2.The World Health Organization maintains that BA.2 is not a "variant of concern," meaning there is no current evidence to suggest this new subvariant will worsen COVID-19 transmission, illness severity, or efficacy of vaccines and public health efforts like masking and social distancing.BA.2 numbers around the world are rising, with at least 40 countries reporting cases to a global variant tracking database, but the subvariant has spread rapidly in Denmark and the UK, with almost half of recent cases in Denmark attributed to BA.2.The subvariant has already been detected in several U.S. states, with Washington State confirming two cases Monday.While over 8,000 BA.2 cases have been identified since November 2021, it is unclear where BA.2 originated. Even though the first sequences were submitted from the Philippines, numerous cases have since been detected in various places, from Europe to South Asia.Given the rising numbers, health care organizations, like the WHO, are asking scientists to watch and study the new subvariant separately from omicron, to see if it behaves differently. Scientists warn that omicron's whirlwind spread across the globe practically ensures it won't be the last worrisome coronavirus variant. The evolution of COVID-19 subvariants is not new. The delta variant also had several subvariants, but scientists referred to all of them as delta. BA.2, however, has earned its own designation due to rising numbers across several nations.Although it's been called the "stealth" omicron variant, the new subvariant, "can absolutely be detected through traditional surveillance mechanisms whether through rapid testing or PCR," said Dr. John Brownstein, chief innovation officer at Harvard University's Boston Children's Hospital and ABC Medical Correspondent.Conventional COVID-19 tests can show a positive or a negative result, but they can't determine specific variants. For that, scientists need to do additional genetic sequencing. Conveniently, the omicron variant has a particular genetic signature that allows scientists to quickly and easily determine if the sample is omicron or not.The new BA.2 subvariant does not have that feature, meaning scientists can no longer use this shortcut -- though they can still identify the subvariant using genetic sequencing technology. Because of this, the BA.2 subvariant has sometimes been referred to as the "stealth" variant. But for the general public, conventional COVID-19 tests will still work to detect the new subvariant. Ultimately, while scientists and public health officials are urging continued research and surveillance, experts say there is little reason to worry. "BA.2 is important from a public health perspective, but it doesn't fundamentally change at this moment, how we think about the impact in the population," Brownstein said. "A lot more work needs to be done to understand severity, breakthrough infections, and immunizations before you can make any statement about clinical relevance."
Man Can’t Get Heart Transplant Because He’s Not Vaccinated Against COVID – – David Ferguson is speaking out passionately on behalf of his son DJ. He says the 31-year-old is fighting for his life at Brigham and Women’s Hospital and in desperate need of a heart transplant. “My son has gone to the edge of death to stick to his guns and he’s been pushed to the limit,” Ferguson said. The family says he was at the front of the line to receive a transplant but because he has not received the COVID-19 vaccination he is no longer eligible according to hospital policy. Ferguson says his son refuses to get the shot. “It’s kind of against his basic principles; he doesn’t believe in it. It’s a policy they are enforcing and so because he won’t get the shot, they took him off the list of a heart transplant,” Ferguson said. Brigham and Women’s released a statement saying, “And like many other transplant programs in the United States – the COVID-19 vaccine is one of several vaccines and lifestyle behaviors required for transplant candidates in the Mass General Brigham system in order to create both the best chance for a successful operation and also the patient’s survival after transplantation.” Dr. Arthur Caplan is Head of Medical Ethics at NYU Grossman School of Medicine. He says being vaccinated is necessary for this type of procedure. “Post any transplant, kidney, heart whatever, your immune system is shut off,” Caplan said. “The flu could kill you, a cold could kill you, COVID could kill you. The organs are scarce, we are not going to distribute them to someone who has a poor chance of living when others who are vaccinated have a better chance post-surgery of surviving.”
Woman Who Came Into Contact With Escaped Monkeys Says She Developed Symptoms - A Pennsylvania woman who came into contact with laboratory monkeys last week after a truck carrying them crashed has said she developed unusual symptoms. On her Facebook page and during media interviews, the woman, Michelle Fallon, said she developed symptoms after the accident. Fallon wrote that she sought emergency room treatment at the Geisinger Medical Center in Danville.Fallon told local media that after the crash, she believed the truck was carrying cats. However, when she approached the cages, a monkey appeared at hissed at her.“What a day I try to help out at a accident seen was told there were cats in the crates. So I over to pet them. To find out it’s monkeys. Then I noticed that’s there 3 in each and I was completely broken the other was half broken,” Fallon wrote. “So I knew 4 got away. So come home go to bed. My aunt runs into New[s] crew was ask to do interview. Then find out not to get close to the monkey.”She continued: “Well tried to pet one, I touch the creates and walk in poop. Then was told to met police at the scene. To talk about exposure. News crew was the[re]. I thought they were [Centers for Disease Control and Prevention] so I to them. End up doing interviews. Talk to police and a lady with CDC. I’m will getting a letter. I’m very low risk for I don’t know what yet.”Later, she wrote that she has “symptoms” that are like “Covid symptoms. Like seriously. A day from hell.” She was referring to COVID-19.Fallon told PAHomepage that she had an open cut on her hand and also developed pink-eye-like symptoms. She went to the emergency room at Geisinger Danville
Ohio recommends move to clustered cases contract tracing - (AP) — The Ohio Department of Health has recommended that local health departments shift their practice of COVID-19 contact tracing to a model that follows clusters of cases and not individual diagnoses. Schools can also discontinue universal contract tracing but should still plan to help health departments trace clusters of a coronavirus outbreak. according to a memo sent to all districts and health departments earlier this week. The memo instructs local health departments to focus on outbreaks in crowded settings such as homeless shelters, correctional facilities and nursing homes. What constitutes a school outbreak will likely be a judgment call by experts, Dr. Bruce Vanderhoff, the Health Department director, said Thursday. “When you have 10 cases in a very small school, that looks a whole lot different than 10 cases in a very, very large school, or large district,” he said. “There’s no hard and fast number.” Schools are still encouraged to follow state guidelines that allow students to stay in class or participate in extracurricular activities after possible coronavirus contact as long as they follow certain masking and testing protocols.
Covid Cases Drop By 14% In A Fortnight In US - In an indicator of reversing trend, coronavirus cases dropped by 14 percent in the last two weeks in the United States, according to latest data published by the New York Times. The number of average daily cases has been mostly falling in the last seven days after a surge driven by the extremely transmissible Omicron variant in the winter holiday season. 429510 new cases reported on Tuesday is less than half the number recorded the previous day. With this, the national total has risen to 72,178,003, according to the latest data from Johns Hopkins University. In contrast, Covid-related casualties are at the higher end. With 2912 additional deaths, the total number of lives that the pandemic claimed in the U.S. has reached 872,126. California reported the most number of cases - 82,805, while Ohio recorded more than one-sixth of all Covid casualties reported on Tuesday. Covid-related hospitalizations have slowed down notably. 155,247 infected patients are currently admitted in hospitals in the country. 45,119,980 people in the country have recovered from the disease so far. As per the latest data published by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, 210,682,471 Americans, or 63.5 percent of the eligible population, have been administered both doses of Covid vaccine so far. This includes 88.2 percent of people above 65. 251,289,667 people, or 75.7 percent of the eligible population, have received the first dose. 40.3 percent of the eligible population, or more than 84 million people, have already received a booster dose that is recommended to provide additional protection from the killer bug.
US Reports Highest Single-day Covid Death Toll In Nearly A Year - The United States on Wednesday reported the highest single-day death toll caused by coronavirus infection in nearly a year. With 4128 casualties, the national total increased to 876,066, according to the latest data from Johns Hopkins University. This is the first time the daily death figure is crossing 4000 since February 12, 2021. With 738928 new cases, the total number of people infected with coronavirus in the U.S. has risen to 72,910,879. California reported the most number of cases - 70,486 - on Wednesday, while Michigan led in casualties, 445. 45,421,318 people in the country have recovered from the disease so far. At a White House news conference by Covid-19 Response Team, CDC director Dr.Rochelle Walensky said that although it is encouraging that Omicron appears to be causing less severe disease, it's important to remember that the country is still facing a high overall burden of disease. Cases have dramatically increased and are five times higher than they were during the Delta wave. Hospitalizations have rapidly increased in a short amount of time, putting a strain on many local health systems. At the same time, "When we look at other disease severity indicators measured among people who are hospitalized with COVID-19 — such as hospital length of stay, ICU admissions, and deaths — these indicators are lower with Omicron than during previous periods of high transmission," she told reporters. "And this is likely attributable to two key factors: First, many people in our country have some level of immunity from vaccination and boosters or from previous infection. And second, it's likely that Omicron is less severe than prior variants," Dr.Walensky added.
Omicron Deaths in U.S. Exceed Delta’s Peak as Covid-19 Optimism Rises in Europe – WSJ - More signs emerged that the Omicron wave is taking a less serious human toll in Europe than earlier phases of the pandemic, while U.S. data showed daily average deaths from the disease exceeding the peak reached during the surge driven by the previously dominant Delta variant.In the U.S., the seven-day average for newly reported Covid-19 deaths reached 2,258 a day on Tuesday, up about 1,000 from daily death counts two months ago, data from Johns Hopkins University show. That is the highest since February 2021 as the country was emerging from the worst of last winter’s wave.While there is a large body of evidence suggesting that Omicron is less likely to kill the people it infects, it spreads much more quickly and therefore infects many more people than earlier variants, epidemiologists say. Case counts in the U.S. have dwarfed previous records.“Milder does not mean mild and we cannot look past the strain on our health systems and substantial number of deaths,” Rochelle Walensky, director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, said on Wednesday. “I know many people are tired, but many of our hospitals are still struggling beyond capacity.”In Western Europe, where vaccination rates are generally higher than the U.S., a record surge in cases hasn’t generated the proportionate increase in hospitalizations and deaths that were seen earlier in the pandemic.Even as Covid-19 cases hit record highs, the Netherlands eased restrictions imposed last month in the face of Omicron—as Covid-19 hospitalizations and deaths remained subdued. Bars, restaurants, cinemas and theaters can reopen from Wednesday, with some continuing restrictions including that they close by 11 p.m. The Dutch government, which has been the target of protests over its lockdown decisions, said the decision wasn’t without risk. It is following others in Europe such as the U.K., Ireland and France that have lifted or eased Covid restrictions.Germany recorded a record 164,000 new cases in 24 hours on Wednesday, an increase of 46% compared with last week and bringing the seven-day daily average to more than 120,000 cases. However, coronavirus-related mortality is declining: on Wednesday, 166 deaths were reported in connection with Covid-19, a drop of 31% compared with last week and the lowest since November. Record numbers of cases are being recorded elsewhere. Portugal is recording about 50,000 new cases a day on average, four times year-ago levels. But deaths have remained relatively low, a sign that mass vaccinations are working. Portugal is recording around 40 deaths a day, compared with the pandemic high of 290 a year ago, according to Our World In Data. Portugal has one of the world’s highest vaccination rates, with over 90% of the population fully immunized.
As COVID-19 surges, deaths exceeded births in half of US states - The United States saw an additional 2,611 deaths from COVID-19 on Tuesday, bringing the death toll from the virus to 894,880, according to Worldometer. The US leads the world in pandemic deaths as it fast approaches 1 million lives lost from the disease. Compared to last winter’s peak, US cases of COVID-19 are dramatically higher, up 266 percent, hospitalizations have just surpassed the previous record, while deaths, a lagging indicator, are at 62 percent of last January’s worst days, according to New York Times data. There has been a 35 percent increase in COVID-19 deaths over the past two weeks. New York registered the highest number of deaths from COVID-19 of any state on Wednesday, at 387, with 2,189,795 active cases. Other northeastern states continued to rank near the top in new deaths, with Pennsylvania reporting 189 deaths; Massachusetts, 155; and New Jersey, 151. While cases per 100,000 residents have fallen in the Northeast since January 10, cases in the Midwest and South have declined only marginally in this period. Cases in the West have remained steady, although in California cases are up 358 percent compared to last winter’s surge. Locations with the highest hospitalization increases since last winter include Washington D.C., up 224 percent; Nevada, 161 percent; Alabama, 152 percent; West Virginia, 151 percent; and Missouri, 150 percent. The devastation wrought by the pandemic has also led to an unprecedented situation in which deaths exceeded births in half of all US states in 2020. A study in May 2021 by the University of New Hampshire’s Carsey School of Public Policy found, “In 2020, the impact of COVID-19 contributed to a record 3,376,000 deaths in the United States: 18 percent more than in 2019,” and that “births diminished by 4 percent to 3,605,000 in 2020.” The surplus of births over deaths added just 229,000 to the US population in 2020, a decline of 74 percent compared to 2019. Combined with a decrease in immigration, this decline produced the smallest annual percentage population gain in at least a century. In five states—Maine, Vermont, New Hampshire, Rhode Island and West Virginia—the decline in births compared to deaths began in 2019 and continued this trend in 2020. It is not coincidental that New England and Appalachia have been hard hit by the opioid crisis and “deaths of despair” in addition to pandemic. In 2020, deaths exceeded births in 20 additional states. These states are all over the map, from New England, to the Midwest, South, Southwest and Northwest. As deaths rose, fertility declined sharply as women delayed pregnancies as the pandemic took hold. In December 2020 there were 8 percent fewer births than in December 2019. Researchers suggest a similar reduction in the birth rate in January 2020.
Statistical Manipulation by Governments During the Pandemic - During the pandemic, the public and media have relied on government statistics at levels rarely seen during the pre-pandemic period. Every day we are presented with a plethora of data; during the pre-vaccine stage of the pandemic we were repeatedly told about the number of new cases, the number of hospitalizations and ICU admissions and the number of deaths from COVID-19. As the narrative morphed, the public was presented with additional data including the number of vaccinated individuals and the number of vaccines administered in their jurisdiction which has since morphed into the number of hospitalizations, ICU admissions and deaths for both the vaccinated and unvaccinated populations. Governments have started using this latest data to bully/coerce the unvaccinated into joining the "tribe" of those who have been vaccinated by presenting data which appears, at first glance, to show that the unvaccinated individuals are responsible for the pressures in the hospital system. With all of this in mind, let's look at an interesting example of how one government is using its own data in what can only be described as a nefarious way. The province of New Brunswick is located in eastern Canada and has a population 794,300 according to Statistics Canada. Here are two graphics from the New Brunswick government showing the province's vaccine statistics: According to New Brunswick's own data, 83.6 percent of its population has received two doses of a COVID-19 vaccine meaning that only 16.4 percent of New Brunswickers have had only one dose or no vaccine at all while 37.4 percent have received their third vaccination (i.e. booster dose).Now, let's look at the province's hospitalization data. Here is a graphic showing the growing number of COVID-19-related hospitalizations and ICU bed occupancy with data going back to December 1, 2021: That would appear to be rather alarming, wouldn't it?Let's drill down further into the hospitalization data. Here is a graphic showing the breakdown between protected and partial or non-protected individuals for hospitalizations, ICU bed occupancy and ventilator use:From this data, it would appear that the unvaccinated or partially vaccinated are responsible for the vast majority of hospital admissions and stays.But, wait one moment. Here is what appears just under the hospitalization data:"Protected refers to boosted or fully vaccinated less than six months. Partial or no protection refers to fully vaccinated more than six months, partially vaccinated, and unvaccinated."So, in other words, if a New Brunswick resident received both of their COVID-19 vaccines before August 2021, they are considered to have "no protection" and, as a result, are lumped with the unvaccinated and those who only received one dose. This means that the share of the hospitalizations for the not-fully-protected cohort is now far higher than it would have been before the roll-out of what is proving to be nearly useless booster shots. Obviously, being "fully vaccinated/fully protected" is a moving target in the eyes of the elected ruling class and, in New Brunswick, only includes the 37.4 percent of residents who have received their third dose.Yet, despite this deliberate and rather transparent manipulation of the definition of fully vaccinated when it comes to hospitalizations, this is what appears on another New Brunswick government website:
COVID-19 ravages homeless shelters in Toronto - The rapid spread of Omicron across Canada is taking an especially terrible toll on the homeless population, with major outbreaks reported in shelters in Toronto and British Columbia in recent weeks. Two years into the pandemic, the refusal of governments at all levels to adopt any measures to overcome the long-standing social and economic problems plaguing Canada’s urban centers continues to have devastating consequences for those forced to live on the streets, in shelters, or other forms of temporary accommodation. As temperatures dropped to deadly levels during a severe winter cold snap earlier this month, the Omicron variant ran rampant through Toronto’s homeless shelter system. Fifty shelters reported outbreaks and over four hundred people tested positive by Friday, January 14. Toronto city authorities have brutally attacked and dismantled homeless camps, as picture above from last summer (Credit: Mark McAllister, @McAllister_Mark/Twitter) The drop of outside temperatures to injurious and deadly depths pushed up shelter occupancy rates and accelerated COVID-19 transmission. With only 65 beds for people to isolate available system-wide, shelter staff were directed to keep infected residents on site. While the isolation site’s aim during previous waves was to prevent infection spread, outbreaks across the system are now seen as “entirely unavoidable.” Andrew Bond, medical director of Inner City Health Associates, told the Toronto Star, “There’s no amount of dedicated isolation space away from the shelter system that can be created to move every single person who gets COVID or is in contact with COVID.” As the extreme cold weather increased demand for already inadequate services, COVID-19 infections continued to thin out available staff. This convergence of challenges led to dropped calls on shelter intake phone lines and an overall decrease in cleanliness and social distancing practices. “A lot of people have experienced what are called ‘courtesy hang-ups.’ And consistently, people spend inordinate amounts of time on hold. Between the two, folks cannot get through to even find out if there is shelter space,” said housing advocate and York University adjunct faculty A.J. Withers. “Getting people out of the cold so they don’t die or lose fingers and toes is paramount at this moment. Ultimately though, Toronto’s unhoused population needs more non-congregate settings, single-room housing where isolation is possible, to avoid outbreaks.”
Israel sees 70,000 new COVID cases, with 638 hospitalized in serious condition - The Health Ministry updated its coronavirus figures on Friday, revealing that nearly 70,000 Israelis tested positive for COVID-19 the day before, with the number of patients in serious condition climbing to 638. Total active cases rose to 427,023 and 1,758 Israelis were hospitalized in all, with 123 of them on ventilators. At least 9,867 medical staff were sidelined after contracting COVID themselves, including 1,379 doctors and 2,916 nurses, the ministry said. Among those hospitalized in serious condition due to the coronavirus, 55% had received a booster shot, 24% were not vaccinated at all and the remainder were partially vaccinated or previously recovered from COVID. Those who received the third, booster dose of the vaccine still remained better protected against serious COVID symptoms, Health Ministry data showed, adding that Israelis over the age of 60 were 85% boosted, while Israelis over 60 who were hospitalized in serious condition were only 60% boosted. Just over 20% of tests came back positive, including 22.5% of the PCR samples and 18.4% of the rapid antigen samples. The Health Ministry also released 7-day figures which showed 436,028 new cases during that time period — a 67% rise from the week before. Serious cases totaled 775 — a 130.7% rise from the previous week. COVID-related deaths added up to 58 — a 34.9% rise from the previous week. COVID data from Wednesday showed that Israel was leading the world in new daily COVID-19 cases per capita.
South Korea records 8,000 new coronavirus infections for first time --South Korea hit a new daily COVID-19 case record on Tuesday with more than 8,000 cases recorded for the first time in the country since the pandemic began. The Korea Disease Control and Prevention Agency reported 8,571 cases as the country battles the omicron variant, The Associated Press reported. With the surge in new cases, the government is enacting new measures to try and prevent overwhelming hospitals and workplaces. The country reduced its quarantine time for vaccinated individuals down to seven days and said mild cases will be treated at home. South Korea is encouraging people to get vaccinated, saying that in the last eight weeks unvaccinated individuals have made up a small percentage of new cases but account for around 60 percent of serious illnesses or deaths from the virus, according to the AP. “While infections are increasing, cases among people in their 60s or older, who are at higher risk of serious illness and death, have so far remained at a low level,” Park Hyang, an official from the Health Ministry, said. “We believe this is because the rate of people in that age group who received booster shots has now rose to 84.9 percent.” The country has more than 85 percent of people fully vaccinated and more than 50 percent with a booster shot. The new surge could raise infections to 10,000 by the end of this week in South Korea, the AP noted.
COVID-19 cases spread across the Pacific - A disaster is rapidly unfolding among the vulnerable island states scattered across the Pacific, as cases of COVID-19, including the virulent Omicron variant, gain a foothold. In October 2021, of 17 countries listed by The Lancet as COVID-19-free, 12 were in the Pacific. That situation is reversing among the region’s impoverished former colonies, whose health systems and social infrastructure are ill-equipped to deal with the looming crisis. Lockdowns were imposed in Samoa and Kiribati last week after COVID-19 cases were identified in international arrivals. Until this month, Kiribati had not reported a single case, while Samoa had only recorded two since the pandemic began. On January 14, 36 of 54 passengers on a charter flight to Kiribati from Fiji—the first to arrive in the nation since borders reopened—tested positive. In Samoa, a lockdown was triggered on Saturday after cases linked to a repatriation flight from Brisbane, with 73 passengers on board, rose to 15. The sudden spread of COVID-19 into previously isolated Pacific islands coincides with the eruption of the virulent Omicron strain in the two regional powers, Australia and New Zealand. Both treat the southwest Pacific as their neo-colonial patch. Neither has ever had any concern for the local population, and bear prime responsibility for the current social and economic disaster. Canberra and Wellington have adopted the “live with the virus” agenda, with disastrous results. Australia has had 1.9 million cases since mid-December and more than 800 deaths. The Omicron variant has recently been confirmed in the New Zealand community, with Prime Minister Ardern expecting “up to 1,000 cases a day” within two weeks. The imposition of “herd immunity” is in line with demands from big business and political elites to prioritise profits over public health. As part of this, the reckless relaxation of border restrictions and revival of international travel has begun in earnest. In the Pacific, this is propelled by the drive to restore the devastated tourism industry, deemed essential to the economies of island businesses.
China tests 2M people in Beijing for COVID-19 as Olympics loom --Chinese health officials have tested 2 million Beijing residents for COVID-19 less than two weeks before the opening ceremony of the Winter Olympics, The Associated Press reported amid a small spike of around 40 confirmed cases since Jan. 15. Authorities have also announced that residents who have purchased fever, cough or certain other medicines in the past two weeks will have to take a coronavirus test within 72 hours, according to the AP. “The current epidemic prevention situation is still grim and complicated, and all departments across the city must act proactively and swiftly,” city spokesperson Xu Hejian said in a statement. “The overall situation is controllable,” Xu added. The Chinese government has implemented new coronavirus precautions amid growing concerns around the February Winter g=Games. China has aggressively pursued a “zero-tolerance” COVID-19 policy as the pandemic drags on into another year. Sports media outlets ESPN and NBC Sports announced last week that they won’t send journalists to the Olympics due to COVID-19 concerns. Olympic organizers said Monday that more than 3,000 people, including over 300 athletes and team officials, plus media and other participants, had already arrived for the two-week event. As of now, 78 people involved with the games, including an athlete and team official, have tested positive for the virus, the AP reported.
Omicron case rates explode in Russia - In a mirror image of the Omicron crisis gripping Europe and the United States, Russia is seeing its COVID-19 case rates skyrocket. Like the governments in Washington, Berlin, Paris and London, the Kremlin is doing nothing to contain the virus. On Friday, the country registered another 98,040 infections over the previous 24-hour period, a number that Kremlin spokesman Dmitri Peskov acknowledged that same day to be undoubtedly an undercount. Omicron has been detected in 74 of Russia’s 82 regions, and the situation is getting worse in 32 of those. Officially, coronavirus deaths in Russia now total 329,443. However, the country’s main statistical agency, which also counts those who have technically died from a comorbidity, estimates the number to be many times higher. There have been more than 929,000 excess deaths since the onset of the pandemic. While daily fatalities have fallen to about half of what they were during the recent Delta surge, that number is expected to rise in coming weeks. In an extraordinary expression of the impact of COVID-19 on the Russian population, Moscow State University researcher Vera Karpova told Bloomberg at the end of December that life expectancy in the country has fallen by three years due to COVID-19, wiping out a decade’s worth of gains. President Vladimir Putin acknowledged the rise in mortality rates in his end-of-the-year remarks, describing it as a “geopolitical” as well as a “humanistic” problem, but offered no solution. Currently Omicron is tearing through the under-17 population, with cases increasing among children by 14 times in comparison to two weeks ago. Fifteen percent of all newly recorded instances of the disease are now among kids. In Moscow, child infections leapt from 2,000 to 28,000 in a seven-day period and hospitalization rose tenfold. A three-week halt has been placed on non-emergency hospital treatments for children, apart from those with cancer and other life-threatening diseases that cannot be delayed. Overall, the number of people admitted to medical facilities due to COVID-19 in the country’s capital is now close to what it was during the previous peak. Alexander Gorelov of the Institute of Epidemiology, which is under the direction of Russia’s consumer watchdog agency Rostrebnadzor, told Gazeta.ru this week that Omicron is especially dangerous for kids two to five years old because it attacks the upper respiratory system and can cause severe bronchitis. Symptoms can be as bad as those seen in adults. Federal authorities have said that they will not order a nationwide shift to online learning, much less any other sort of lockdown. But across the country, schools are shuttering due to outbreaks, exposures and shortages of employees.
More than 800 deaths may have been avoided due to air quality improvements during the first lockdown phase in Europe - Strict COVID-19 lockdown policies such as workplace closures in European cities reduced levels of air pollution and the number of associated deaths, according to new estimates published in Scientific Reports.The research, which was funded by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) on behalf of the Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS), was led by a team of statistical health and earth observation satellite modellers based at the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine (LSHTM), with colleagues from CAMS.The study compared government policies from 47 European cities from February to July 2020 and estimated the changes in pollution levels and related number of deaths avoided during the first wave of COVID-19 pandemic.Government measures for COVID-19 such as school and workplace closure, cancelling public events, and stay-at-home requirements had the strongest effect on reducing NO2 levels. This is linked to the reduction in road transport and local mobility which is known to be a contributor to NO2 air pollution. Spanish, French and Italian cities had the largest decrease in NO2 of between 50% and 60% during the period.Although strong decreases in NO2 were observed, levels of fine particulate matter PM2.5 and PM10 were reduced more modestly since they are also produced by natural sources (wildfires and dust), and other emission sources like residential activities, that were slightly increased during lockdown. "The lockdown during the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic created immense health and social costs, however, it has offered unique conditions to investigate potential effects of strict policies to reduce pollution levels in urban areas. This 'natural experiment' has given us a glimpse of how air quality can be improved by drastic public health measures that would be difficult to implement in normal times. The information can be important to design effective policies to tackle the problem of pollution in our cities.
Lead lurking in your soil? New Chicago project maps distribution - Lead exposure in early childhood can have lifelong consequences, including brain damage, developmental delays, and learning and behavioral disorders. Preventing these devastating outcomes means avoiding lead, but that's only possible if you know where to find it. Lead haunts old homes in chipping paint and pipes, but it also lurks outside, in soil. It's the stuff of mud pies and garden plots, crumbling from boot treads to join household dust in forgotten corners. It's easily overlooked, but soil can be an important source of lead where children live and play. A new soil sampling endeavor from the University of Illinois and Illinois Extension reveals elevated lead in parkways and backyards across Chicago. According to the study, every single sample measured lead above the naturally occurring level of 20 parts per million (ppm). And the median value across the city's parkways was 11 times that amount: 220 ppm. The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency sets the maximum threshold for soil lead at 400 ppm for bare soil where children play, and Illinois uses the same standard. Other states, such as California and Minnesota, set the threshold far more conservatively at 80 and 100 ppm, respectively. In Chicago, 93% of soil samples came in above 80 ppm. But, using the federal and Illinois EPA standard, 94% of the samples were below the threshold of 400 ppm. "We're in this weird gray area, where depending on what government guidelines you follow, you're either OK or you're not for most of the city," Margenot says. "Frankly, though, I was surprised our mean values weren't higher. Individual backyards in this study measured as high as 3,000 ppm and many U.S. cities have hotspots far exceeding that. So it could have been a lot worse." Still, Margenot favors California's more conservative standard, citing a 2015 analysis linking soil lead exposure with child blood lead levels and IQ. He notes, however, that soil lead doesn't always translate neatly into blood lead levels. Bioavailability depends on a lot of factors, including soil clay content and organic matter and, more practically, whether soil is bare or covered with turf or cement.
Cleaning your car may not protect you from this carcinogen -It is unlikely that a cancer-causing chemical inside your car can be dusted or wiped way, according to new UC Riverside research. This finding has now been published in the journal Environmental Research. It follows on the heels of a related studyshowing the longer your commute, the more you’re exposed to this chemical. TDCIPP, or chlorinated tris, is a chemical flame retardant widely used in automobile seat foam. In addition to being on California’s Prop. 65 list because it is carcinogenic, UCR environmental toxicologist David Volz has found that TDCIPP prevents zebrafish embryos from developing normally. Other studies have associated it with infertility in certain women. Some research suggests that dust removal could lead to lower exposure to chemicals. Volz and his colleagues hoped that was true for car interiors. The researchers divided nearly 50 study participants, all of them heavy commuters, into four groups they tracked for two weeks. One group did not wipe dust in their cars at all, another wiped the dust both weeks, and two other groups wiped for only one of the two weeks. All participants were given silicone wristbands to wear continuously during the two-week testing period. The molecular structure of silicone makes it ideal for capturing airborne contaminants such as TDCIPP. “Going into this, our hypothesis was that the no-wipe group would have the highest concentration, the two-week wipe group would be lower, and the partial wipe groups would be somewhere in between,” Volz said. “But what we found was that there was basically no difference between any of the groups.” Previously, the researchers assumed that commuters’ primary exposure to TDCIPP is through contaminated dust. One possible explanation for this study’s result, Volz said, was the possibility that TDCIPP is not coming from dust that can be cleaned. Instead, it could have moved directly from car seats into wristbands in gas or aerosol form. “This result suggests dust may not be the primary route of exposure,” Volz said. “Dust is definitely something compounds like TDCIPP attach to, however, we can’t rule out that people are just inhaling airborne compounds.”
Environmental justice concerns loom over Kanawha County ethylene oxide cancer risk reassessment -The historically Black community has long been what NAACP Charleston branch Environmental and Climate Justice Committee chair and former DEP environmental advocate Pam Nixon has called an “environmental sacrifice zone.” Chemical facilities like those operated by Union Carbide Corp., Bayer CropScience and US Methanol as well as sites like the nearby Dunbar treatment plant and asphalt-producing company West Virginia Paving have exposed the area to adverse impacts. A plant was built in Institute during World War II for the federal government to produce butadiene and styrene, which are used to produce synthetic rubber. Union Carbide bought the plant in 1947 to produce other chemicals. By the 1970s, the plant was a “major source of air pollutants” and “major generator of hazardous wastes,” according to a 1984 U.S. Environmental Protection Agency overview of Kanawha Valley environmental pollution. The agency reported that monitoring wells onsite had detected significant groundwater contamination, exceeding drinking water standards. Union Carbide had told the EPA that it had buried a wide variety of chemical wastes at the site from 1950 to 1970. In August 1985, an accidental release of aldicarb oxime from the Institute plant sent at least 135 people to the hospital — eight months after a leak of methyl isocyanate from a Union Carbide pesticide plant in Bhopal, India, killed thousands and caused permanent disabilities or premature death for many thousands more. In August 2008, an explosion at the plant then owned by Bayer CropScience left two dead and eight treated for possible chemical exposure. And in 2018, the EPA released its latest National Air Toxics Assessment, finding that six of the 90 census tracts with the highest cancer risk from the flammable, colorless gas ethylene oxide were in Kanawha County. It was the first such assessment since the EPA reclassified ethylene oxide as a carcinogen in 2016, causing risk estimates to go up. The total cancer risk in Kanawha was 366 in 1 million, 10th-highest in the country, and made up largely of the risk from ethylene oxide that composed much of the risk for most tracts across the country.
EPA to investigate North Carolina biogas for discrimination | Food and Environment Reporting Network - The Environmental Protection Agency has notified North Carolina civil rights groups that it will investigate whether state regulators discriminated against communities of color when they approved four applications to convert hog waste into fuel.The Jan. 13 letter, from EPA’s External Civil Rights Compliance Office, came two days after a state administrative-law judge upheld the same permits.Industrial-scale hog farming has been a contentious issue in North Carolina, the country’s No. 2 state for swine production. Advocates describe the industry as an economic engine that rescued the state’s coastal plain after tobacco farming declined in the late 20th century. Critics describe the waste-disposal system—in which urine and feces are stored in open pits called “lagoons” and then sprayed onto farm fields as fertilizer—as antiquated and noxious. Waste from these farms has contaminated nearby streams and rivers, and neighbors complain of stenches, flies, buzzards, and truck traffic. In 2020 Smithfield Foods, the largest player in the state’s hog industry, settled a cluster of lawsuits filed by neighbors who said these nuisances made their daily lives intolerable.The newest developments stem from a joint venture by Smithfield and Dominion Energy to capture methane from hog waste, break it down by anaerobic digestion, and then pipe it to a central facility, where it will be refined into biogas. (The industry prefers the term “renewable natural gas.”) The leftover waste material will be stored in “secondary lagoons” before being applied to fields.Smithfield and Dominion say methane from 19 farms will produce enough energy to power 4,500 homes and reduce carbon-dioxide emissions by 157,000 tons a year. Boosters call biogas production a win for both agriculture and the environment. “The opportunity to capture methane gas and generate renewable energy is another financial tool that will benefit our farmers,” Duplin County Commissioner Elwood Garner, who raises hogs for Smithfield, said at a public hearing last year. “That will help us remain in business and continue to do the noble work of feeding a hungry world.”But environmental and civil-rights groups say the secondary lagoons will release more ammonia into the atmosphere than conventional pits, threatening both air and water quality. What’s more, they say, as climate change brings more intense storms to the region, the secondary lagoons will be vulnerable to structural failure and flooding.
EPA to Probe Whether North Carolina’s Permitting of Biogas From Swine Feeding Operations Violates Civil Rights of Nearby Neighborhoods - The EPA has decided to investigate North Carolina’s 2021 decision to allow four pig feeding operations to generate biogas from hog waste lagoons, and environmental justice advocates hope the probe will yield greater civil rights protections for Blacks and Latinos who live nearby. In September 2021, the Southern Environmental Law Center (SELC) filed a complaint alleging that degraded “groundwater, surface water and air quality” from biogas operations at industrial hog feeding operations in North Carolina would disproportionately harm predominantly Black and Latino residents in violation of both Title VI of the Civil Rights Act and state environmental laws. On Jan. 13, the EPA opened the investigation into the state regulator’s approval of a plan to use swine waste digesting equipment to produce biogas and its awarding of permits to four hog facilities despite the likelihood that the project will increase air and water pollution. Blakely Hildebrand, an SELC attorney, said the EPA’s decision to look into the complaint sends a strong message to DEQ that communities of color that live near these hog operations must be protected. “DEQ’s own environmental justice report noted that these four hog operations shared proximity with largely black and Latino neighborhoods,” Hildebrand said. “The agency did not take any steps to address those disproportionate impacts or conduct a more robust environmental justice analysis.” Josh Kastrinsky, a DEQ public information officer, responded that the agency is reviewing the EPA letter. “DEQ is committed to the fair treatment and meaningful involvement of all North Carolinians and we have given significant priority to compliance with Title VI requirements, particularly with regard to animal waste permitting,” he said. Roy Lee Lindsey, CEO of the North Carolina Pork Council, said the EPA’s decision to launch an investigation into the biogas permits does not represent any finding of fact. “We believe the facts will show that there is no discrimination or disparate impact caused by the use of digesters on these farms,” he said. It was surprising, he added, that four farms trying to make environmental improvements are facing such a complaint. Owned by Smithfield Foods Inc., the four permitted swine facilities are located in Duplin and Sampson counties, which have the highest concentration of hog operations in the United States. A total of 9 million hogs are raised annually at 2,000 industrial hog operations “in the low-lying, flood-prone coastal plain of eastern North Carolina,” the SELC complaint stated.
Scientists find the climate and health impacts of natural gas stoves are greater than previously thought - Natural gas appliances warm the planet in two ways: generating carbon dioxide by burning natural gas as a fuel and leaking unburned methane into the air. A new Stanford-led study reveals that the methane leaking from natural gas-burning stoves inside U.S. homes has a climate impact comparable to the carbon dioxide emissions from about 500,000 gasoline-powered cars. This extra warming from home methane leaks contributes about a third as much warming as the carbon dioxide generated by combustion of the stove's natural gas, and sometimes exposes users to respiratory disease-triggering pollutants. The findings, published Jan. 27 in Environmental Science & Technology, come as legislators in numerous U.S. municipalities and at least one state—New York—weigh banning natural gas hookups from new construction. "It's probably the part of natural gas emissions we understand the least about, and it can have a big impact on both climate and indoor air quality." Methane also threatens air quality by increasing the concentration of tropospheric ozone, exposure to which causes an estimated 1 million premature deaths annually worldwide due to respiratory illnesses. Over one-third of U.S. households—more than 40 million homes—cook with gas. Unlike other gas appliances, such as space and water heaters that are usually placed away from living quarters, cooking appliances directly expose people to their emissions, which can include formaldehyde, carbon monoxide and nitric oxides that can trigger asthma, coughing, wheezing and difficulty breathing, occasionally resulting in hospitalization. To better understand cooking appliances' potential climate and health impacts, the researchers measured methane and nitrogen oxides released in 53 homes in California, not only during combustion, ignition and extinguishment, but also while the appliance was off, something most previous studies had not done. Their study included 18 brands of gas cooktops and stoves ranging in age from 3 to 30 years. The highest emitters were cooktops that ignited using a pilot light instead of a built-in electronic sparker. Methane emissions from the puffs of gas emitted while igniting and extinguishing a burner were on average equivalent to the amount of unburned methane emitted during about 10 minutes of cooking with the burner. Interestingly, the researchers found no evidence of a relationship between the age or cost of a stove and its emissions. Most surprising of all, more than three-quarters of methane emissions occurred while stoves were off, suggesting that gas fittings and connections to the stove and in-home gas lines are responsible for most emissions, regardless of how much the stove is used.
Beijing warns of heavy air pollution during Winter Olympics - Beijing warned Monday that heavy air pollution is likely during the Winter Olympics, but said emergency plans were in place to ensure the Games are not disrupted by smog. The Chinese capital declared "war on pollution" after winning the Olympics bid in 2015, shutting down dozens of coal plants and relocating heavy industries to shed its status as one of the world's most polluted cities. But air quality is still far below World Health Organization standards despite dramatic improvements in recent years, according to state data released this month. "The Beijing Winter Olympic and Paralympic Games coincide with the end of winter and the start of spring in northern China, when weather conditions are extremely unfavorable," China's environment ministry spokesman Liu Youbin said at a press conference Monday. "When heavy pollution is predicted, all localities will launch emergency plans."These include cutting production at polluting companies with a relatively small economic impact in the host cities of Beijing and Zhangjiakou, Liu said.Improvements have been made in recent years. The concentration in Beijing's air of ultrafine PM2.5 particles, which are blamed for a rise in lung cancer, heart attacks and premature babies, dropped to 33 micrograms per cubic meter last year.That figure was down a third from the level in 2013 when the capital had some of the world's worst air quality, according to Beijing's environment bureau. But it is still six times higher than the five micrograms per cubic meter recommended by the WHO. On Monday, Beijing's air quality reading reached 218 on an index by Swiss technology company IQAir, placing it in "very unhealthy" territory.In an attempt to clear the smoggy skies, steel plants around the city were ordered to cut production by half in August and coal stoves in 25 million households across northern China were replaced with gas or electric burners ahead of the Games. China hopes to use the Winter Olympics to showcase its green credentials and has built dozens of wind and solar energy farms to power the sporting spectacle.
Researchers find tradeoff between water quality and emissions on the farm - With water quality guidelines compelling more farmers to act on nitrogen loss, cover crops and split nitrogen applications are becoming more common in the Midwest. But new University of Illinois research shows these conservation practices may not provide environmental benefits across the board. "As researchers, we tend to look at one type of pollution at a time. Ours is one of the first studies to evaluate the nitrogen cycle more holistically. Conservation practices relating to water quality have gained a lot of attention lately, but it's also important to know how they might affect emissions of nitrous oxide, an important greenhouse gas contributing to climate change," says Giovani Preza-Fontes, who is now a postdoctoral researcher at Purdue University. As greenhouse gases go, nitrous oxide is a doozy. With a potency 298 times that of carbon dioxide, nitrous oxide is released when soil microbes metabolize nitrogen, an essential nutrient required to grow corn. When soils warm up in the spring and summer, microbes get to work on any nitrogen not taken up by crops, turning a portion into the powerful greenhouse gas. Some farmers have moved away from the fall anhydrous application, splitting nitrogen between early spring and mid-season. Proponents say this split application is more precise, delivering the exact amount of nitrogen crops need in the moment and leaving less in the soil to be lost in drainage water. Similarly, farmers plant cover crops to take up any excess nitrogen after crops are harvested. But how do these practices perform in terms of nitrous oxide emissions? Preza-Fontes, et al, measured nitrous oxide emissions in corn fields across three seasons. They mimicked various conservation practices, including a pre-season nitrogen application only; split nitrogen applications in spring and at the V6 or V7 corn growth stage; split nitrogen plus a cereal rye cover crop; or no added nitrogen. They found shifting from pre-season to in-season split nitrogen application did not influence nitrous oxide levels in any of the three years. Instead, nitrous oxide spiked in plots with cover crops. "For all three years, we saw greater daily spikes in nitrous oxide emissions with the combination of in-season split nitrogen application and cover crops, but those spikes did not translate into greater cumulative emissions, except for one year. I think this pattern indicates there is a potential for greater nitrous oxide emissions when we incorporate a cereal rye cover crop into our cropping systems," Preza-Fontes says. Why would cereal rye increase nitrous oxide emissions? Simply put, it can create the perfect conditions for nitrous oxide production. The dead plant matter is a massive dinnerplate for soil microbes, providing extra carbon for microbial activity. The plant residue also helps to create an oxygen-limiting environment, a key condition for nitrous oxide production.
Lifetime workplace exposure to pesticides linked to heightened COPD risk - Lifetime workplace exposure to pesticides is linked to a heightened risk of COPD, the umbrella term for a group of respiratory diseases that cause airflow blockage and breathing problems, finds a large population based study, published online in the journal Thorax. The findings are independent of key risk factors for COPD (chronic obstructive pulmonary disease): smoking and asthma. Workplace exposures are important preventable causes of COPD, with recent estimates indicating that around 14% of all such cases are related to work, say the researchers. The researchers drew on data from the UK Biobank, a large population-based study of over half a million men and women recruited between 2006 and 2010 throughout the UK. They invited a random sample of more than half a million 40–69 year olds from among NHS patients who lived within specified distances of 22 health assessment centres in the UK to take part in their study. At entry to the UK Biobank, personal data, including age, sex, lifetime smoking history, current employment, and doctor-diagnosed asthma, were collected and measurements of physical health taken. These measurements included spirometry, a lung function test that measures the amount and/or speed of air that can be breathed in and out in one forced breath. Among the 502,649 participants who provided the full complement of personal data, 457,282 (91%) also took the spirometry test. The lifetime job histories of these participants were collected and coded using OSCAR, a validated web-based tool, used to categorise paid employment for a minimum period of 6 months. And a job exposure matrix was used to code three levels of exposure from 0 (none) to 1 (low) and 2 (high) to 10 categories of workplace agents. These included biological dusts, mineral dusts, gases and fumes, herbicides, insecticides, fungicides, aromatic solvents, chlorinated solvents, other solvents, and metals—plus two composites of the above, to include all pesticides and vapours, gases, dusts, and fumes. The final analysis was based on 94,514 people for whom full data, good quality lung function tests, and complete job and smoking histories were available. Most participants had never smoked (55,574; 59%) and only a few were current smokers (5298; 5.5%). About 11% of participants had been diagnosed with asthma. The prevalence of COPD, identified by spirometry, was 8%, corresponding to 7603 cases. Relatively few participants had been exposed to pesticides alone during the course of their work: just over 4% among those with COPD and 3.5% among those without. But nearly half of those with (48%) and without (47%) COPD had been exposed to a mixture of several agents.
Indigenous People Reclaim Hundreds of Acres of California Redwood Forest - Northern California’s majestic redwood forest was once the home of Indigenous tribes, including the Sinkyone people, that were forced from their land by European settlers. On Tuesday, nonprofit Save the Redwoods League transferred ownership of 523 acres of forest on the Lost Coast — which includes 200 acres of old-growth redwoods — to the Intertribal Sinkyone Wilderness Council, a non-profit group of ten tribes, a statement from Save the Redwoods said. In a celebration of the strength of the Sinkyone tribe, the forest will again be known as Tc’ih-Léh-Dûñ (pronounced tsih-ih-LEY-duhn), which means “Fish Run Place” in the language of the Sinkyone people. “The Sinkyone Council today represents the Indigenous Peoples who are the original stewards of this land. Their connection to the redwood forest is longstanding, and it is deep,” said president and CEO of Save the Redwoods League Sam Hodder, according to the statement. “The League is honored to support a return of Native people to this place and to partner with the Sinkyone Council in their management and stewardship of Tc’ih-Léh-Dûñ. We believe the best way to permanently protect and heal this land is through tribal stewardship. In this process, we have an opportunity to restore balance in the ecosystem and in the communities connected to it, while also accelerating the pace and scale of conserving California’s iconic redwood forests.” In addition to old-growth redwoods, Tc’ih-Léh-Dûñ hosts Douglas-firs, second-growth redwoods and other tree species, as well as huckleberries and elderberries, the statement said. It includes 1.5 miles of Anderson Creek, a tributary to the South Fork Eel River, and is home to coho salmon, steelhead trout and the northern spotted owl, all endangered species. Save the Redwoods League purchased the Tc’ih-Léh-Dûñ land from a California logging family for $3.55 million in 2020, reported The New York Times. Tc’ih-Léh-Dûñ is located east of the Sinkyone Wilderness State Park and north of an additional protected area owned by the Sinkyone Council, the Intertribal Sinkyone Wilderness. In 2012, Save the Redwoods transferred a 164-acre property known as Four Corners, located north of Tc’ih-Léh-Dûñ, to the Sinkyone, The New York Times reported. “It’s a real blessing,” “We have an intergenerational commitment and a goal to protect these lands and, in doing so, [to protect] tribal cultural ways of life and [revitalize] them,” “It’s like a healing for our ancestors. I know our ancestors are happy. This was given to us to protect.”
97% of Latin America's e-waste is improperly managed and includes an annual $1.7 billion in recoverable materials - Electronic waste in 13 Latin American countries rose by 49% between 2010 and 2019, roughly the world average, but just 3% was collected and safely managed, a fraction of the 17.4% global average, according to the UN's first assessment of Latin America's e-waste volume, legislation, and management infrastructure. In 2019, e-waste generated by 206 million citizens in the 13 countries reached 1,300,000 tons (1.3 megatonnes, of which almost 30% was plastic)—equal in weight to a 670 km line of fully-loaded 40-ton trucks. The comparable figure in 2010 was 900,000 tons, generated by about 185 million citizens. While informal recyclers "cherry pick" some valuable elements from waste electronics and electrical equipment, some 97% is improperly managed; just 3% is known to be collected and treated in facilities using environmentally sound methods."E-waste constitutes one of the fastest-growing streams of physical waste in today's global environment and is a threat to sustainable development," the report says.However, few countries collect internationally-comparable e-waste statistics. This report was created with the cooperation of 13 countries to support and facilitate environmentally-sound management of e-waste in the region, says co-author Ruediger Kuehr, the Senior Manager of UNITAR SCYCLE (previously hosted by United Nations University).The hazardous substances in the region's e-waste comprises at least 2200 kg of mercury, 600 kg of cadmium, 4.4 million kg of lead, 4 million kg of brominated flame retardants, and 5.6 megatonnes of greenhouse gas-equivalents (due to refrigerants). These substances "are poorly managed within the region and are likely to be untreated, generating various risks to the stability of a healthy environment,"
Chemicals in plastic may contribute to weight gain -Every day, we come into contact with plastic products. A lot of plastic is found in food packaging. Plastic packaging is common for practical reasons, because it is cheap and because it can increase a food’s shelf life. But plastic contains thousands of different chemicals. Some of these can affect your metabolism, and thus perhaps also your weight. “Our experiments show that ordinary plastic products contain a mix of substances that can be a relevant and underestimated factor behind overweight and obesity,” says Martin Wagner, an associate professor at NTNU’s Department of Biology.----- Wagner’s team has recently shown that plastic products leach a large number of chemicals under real world conditions, thus enabling them to enter the body. Previous research also suggests that some plastics contain endocrine-disrupting chemicals that may affect our development and fertility. Now it appears that they may contribute to weight gain as well.Chemicals from one third of the plastic products investigated in the new study were found to contribute to fat cell development in laboratory experiments. The substances in these products reprogramed precursor cells to become fat cells that proliferated more and accumulated more fat.While some plastic products contained known metabolism-disrupting substances, others did not but nevertheless induced the development of fat cells. This means that plastics contain currently unidentified chemicals that interfere with how our body stores fat.Overweight and obesity contribute to some of the most common causes of death in the world, such as cardiovascular disease and cancer. They can also increase our susceptibility to various infections, such as the effects of COVID-19. Around two billion people in the world are overweight, and the problem is growing. Approximately 650 million of these fall into the obese category. The reasons for this are of course complex, but plastic chemicals may well be a factor that we have not previously considered. These chemicals include phthalates and bisphenols, but the new study shows that there are many more substances that trigger these problematic effects.
Scientists warn that ocean microplastic pollution may be greater than estimated --Microplastic pollution is one of the environmental problems threatening our ecosystems, with a growing interest for society. Specifically, the Mediterranean Sea is one of the world's greatest plastic accumulation areas and presents pollution levels similar to the "great marine garbage patch" of the Pacific Ocean, since the large population that inhabits the area and the marine dynamics mean that floating plastics are trapped in the basin, with few possibilities of escaping into the Atlantic Ocean. "Plastic materials are numerous and very diverse, with different characteristics that complicate having a standard framework to analyze them all in the same way. Moreover, additives such as pigments or retardants add further complexity," explains Laura Simon, ICTA-UAB researcher and first author of the study, published in the scientific journal Environmental Pollution.The study states that the methods used in laboratories for sampling are very diverse, "and although this has made much progress in this scientific field, it has also meant that many of the data produced so far cannot be compared," she adds and acknowledges that this affects the current knowledge the scientific community has of this problem.According to the research, of the 3,000 samples collected in the past decade, 82.8 percent were taken in coastal areas, so scientists have less evidence to understand the distribution of microplastics in the open sea. Also, nets with a mesh size of 200 microns or more were used to sample surface waters, so therefore smaller particles cannot be captured. Studies conducted to date estimate that the Mediterranean Sea contains 84,800 microplastics per km2 in its surface waters, around 300 microplastics per kilogram of marine sediment, and 59 microplastics per kilogram of beach sand. "The number of microplastics in the natural environment increases as their size decreases, therefore, the levels of microplastics in the Mediterranean are probably higher, but because of the methods used we are not able to record them,"
Plastic snowfall in the Alps - In a new study, Empa researcher Dominik Brunner, together with colleagues from Utrecht University and the Austrian Central Institute for Meteorology and Geophysics, is investigating how much plastic is trickling down on us from the atmosphere. According to the study, some nanoplastics travel over 2000 kilometers through the air. According to the figures from the measurements about 43 trillion miniature plastic particles land in Switzerland every year. Researchers still disagree on the exact number. But according to estimates from the study, it could be as much as 3,000 tons of nanoplastics that cover Switzerland every year, from the remote Alps to the urban lowlands. The study is uncharted scientific territory because the spread of nanoplastics through the air is still largely unexplored. The result of Brunner'sresearch is the most accurate record of air pollution by nanoplastics ever made. To count theplastic particles, Brunner and his colleagues studied a small area at an altitude of 3106 meters at the top of the mountain "Hoher Sonnenblick" in the "Hohe Tauern" National Park in Austria. An observatory of the Central Institute for Meteorology and Geodynamics has been located here since 1886, and has only been non-operational on four days. The origin of the tiny particles was traced with the help of European wind and weather data. The researchers could show that the greatest emission of nanoplastics into the atmosphere occurs in densely populated, urban areas. About 30% of the nanoplastic particles measured on the mountain top originate from a radius of 200 kilometers, mainly from cities. However, plastics from the world's oceans apparently also get into the air via the spray of the waves. Around 10% of the particles measured in the study were blown onto the mountain by wind and weather over 2000 kilometers—some of them from the Atlantic. It is estimated that more than 8300 million tons of plastic have been produced worldwide to date, about 60% of which is now waste. This waste erodes through weathering effects and mechanical abrasion from macro- to micro- and nanoparticles. But discarded plastic is far from the only source. Everyday use of plastic products such as packaging and clothing releases nanoplastics. Particles in this size range are so light that their movement in the air can best be compared to gasses. Besides plastics, there are all kinds of other tiny particles. From Sahara sand to brake pads, the world is buzzing through the air as abrasion. It is as yet unclear whether this kind of air pollution poses a potential health threat to humans. Nanoparticles, unlike microparticles, do not just end up in the stomach. They are sucked deep into the lungs through respiration, where their size may allow them to cross the cell-blood barrier and enter the human bloodstream. Whether this is harmful or even dangerous, however, remains to be researched.
Heavy rain and snow hit Pakistan, leaving at least 12 people dead - At least 12 people have died and several were injured after heavy rains and snow hit Pakistan's Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan provinces over the past 4 days.7 people died after landslides caused by heavy rain in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, including 5 children near Alpuri, Shangla District. 16 people, including four children and four women, were injured as well.1 As of January 23, 5 bodies had been recovered with at least 1 person still thought to be missing. Six people were rescued and survived.2KP Provincial Disaster Management Authority (PDMA) said one house was partially damaged while another was destroyed, adding that efforts are being made by the district administration to open the roads due to heavy snowfall.Meanwhile, snowfall caused road accidents in Kalat, Mastung and Ziarat areas of Balochistan, leaving five people dead.Several roads in the province were blocked by the snowfall.The Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD) is forecasting a new spell of snowfall, aand warned landslides are possible in several areas of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Murree, Gilgit Baltistan, and Azad Kashmir.
Emergency alerts issued, schools closed as below-freezing temperatures and heavy snow hit Greece - Heavy snow and below-freezing temperatures affecting Greece, including capital Athens and many Aegean islands, on Monday, January 24, 2022, forced authorities to close schools and warn the public to limit their movements. The temperatures across the country started falling on Saturday, followed by heavy snow and frost.Authorities sent out emergency alerts to cell phones in the wider Athens area on Monday morning warning of severe snowfall over the next few hours and calling on people to avoid any unnecessary movement.1While snow is common in the Greek mountains and in the northern part of the country, it's not usual in central Athens and on the Aegean islands.Rare snow was also reported on the island of Mykonos on Sunday, January 23.Greece was hit by a historic snowstorm and record low temperatures in February 2021, leaving widespread disruption and at least three people dead.2, 3, 4 According to the National Meteorological Service, this was the 'fiercest' snowfall in terms of intensity and volume since 2008.
Istanbul airport stays shut as snow pummels Mediterranean -Europe's busiest airport in Istanbul delayed its reopening on Tuesday and Greece declared a public holiday as the eastern Mediterranean neighbours began digging themselves out of a rare snowstorm that ground their capitals to a halt.Turkish officials ordered all private vehicles off the snow-clogged streets of Istanbul while the Greek military joined rescuers in trying to evacuate hundreds of stranded drivers in Athens.Major highways were closed across both countries and basic services such as food delivery shut down.But much of the international attention focused on the fate of Istanbul's main airport—a gleaming glass-and-steel structure that offers connecting flights spanning much of the world.A blizzard on Monday closed Istanbul Airport for the first time since it took over from the old Ataturk Airport as the new hub for Turkish Airlines in 2019.Its press service pushed backed its planned reopening hours a handful times before admitting defeat and shutting it down for the night.An airport official told AFP that workers were trying to clear one of the runways on Tuesday so that airborne flights could land from Mexico and the United States. But Turkish Airlines decided to suspend all operations at its main international hub until midnight.Istanbul Airport serviced more than 37 million passengers last year despite disruptions caused by the coronavirus pandemic.Yet President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's critics had long questioned his decision to place the airport on a remote patch along the Black Sea coast that is often covered with fog in winter. Istanbul's second airport on its Asian side near the Sea of Marmara stayed open throughout the storm.
Rare snow engulfs Jerusalem, Israel - The same storm that paralyzed Greece and Turkey at the beginning of this week, brought rare snowfall to the city of Jerusalem, Israel on January 27, 2022.According to Israel's meteorological service, between 15 and 25 cm (6 - 10 inches) of snow fell overnight Thursday.The storm caused major traffic issues on main highways leading to Jerusalem and forced authorities to close schools in the city and across northern Israel.According to the Israel Electric Company, power consumption reached an all-time high overnight as Israelis switched on heating.1 Local media said only the most dedicated worshipers came up to the Temple Mount today. Muslims and Hasidic Jews prayed side by side in the snow.2 In neighboring Jordan, heavy snowfall closed roads in the capital Amman and made driving conditions treacherous across much of the country. Jordan's Meteorological Department forecast more snowfall on higher ground with temperatures expected to fall below freezing again on Thursday night.
Egypt records its coldest winter in a decade -This year's winter season in Egypt turned out to be the coldest in a decade, with temperatures as much as 8 °C (14 °F) below the seasonal average.After paralyzing Greece and Turkey at the beginning of the week, a severe winter storm dubbed Elpida brought rare snow to the Middle East and waves of nearly 6 m (20 feet), disrupting shipping in the eastern Mediterranean.1Cold temperatures engulfed the region, with Egypt recording its coldest winter in a decade and Israel reaching an all-time high power consumption overnight Thursday.2The current cold spell has not ever been seen in about ten years, not only because the plummet in temperature degrees, but also due to the long duration of coldness across the country, which nears a whole month, Ali Kotb, a professor of climate at Zagazig University, told Ahram Online.3"Egypt has been witnessing very cold weather at daytimes and frost at night-times for up to a month. Earlier, the country was accustomed to only two-day to week-long cold waves," Kotb added.Jerusalem saw between 15 and 25 cm (6 - 10 inches) of rare snow today, while neighboring Jordan experienced paralyzing snowfall in the capital Amman and across much of the country.Syria was also heavily affected by disrupting snowfall and below-freezing temperatures. Unfortunately, severe weather there is now entering its 10th day, destroying displaced persons' camps near the border with Turkey.4 In crisis-hit Lebanon, refugees and Lebanese alike struggled to secure fuel for heating as severe weather blocked mountain roads and left Syrian refugees shivering in tents.
Rapid deepening of the bomb cyclone off the East Coast underway, U.S. - (animated weather graphs) - The rapid deepening of the bomb cyclone off the East Coast, U.S. is well underway. The NWS WPC and OPC surface analyses show the pressure dropped 9 hPa in just 3 hours between 03:00 and 06:00 UTC on January 29, 2022.
- A powerful Nor'easter and winter storm will wallop eastern parts of the Northeast and New England this weekend.
- Plenty of hazards are expected to impact the Northeastern U.S. from heavy snow, with significant accumulations expected, to high winds and coastal issues.
- The combination of intense snow and strong winds will result in blizzard conditions, especially along coastal areas.
Total snowfall accumulations greater than 30 cm (12 inches) are expected along much of the Northeast coast with local maxima greater than 60 cm (24 inches) across eastern Massachusetts including the Boston metro.Heavy snow rates of up to 5 - 10 cm (2 - 4 inches) per hour and strong winds will produce dangerous blizzard conditions along portions of the Mid-Atlantic and New England coasts.Residents can expect whiteout conditions and nearly impossible travel at times. The strong to damaging winds will lead to scattered power outages.Significant coastal impacts are possible, including coastal flooding and beach erosion.Very cold temperatures will follow the storm with dangerous wind chills tonight into Sunday morning, January 30. The storm will move over the Canadian Maritimes after impacting the United States and then hit southern Greenland.
Blizzard buffets East Coast with deep snow, high winds and severe flooding - A nor'easter with hurricane-force wind gusts battered much of the East Coast on Saturday, flinging heavy snow that made travel treacherous or impossible, flooding coastlines, and threatening to leave bitter cold in its wake. The storm thrashed parts of 10 states, with blizzard warnings that stretched from Virginia to Maine. Philadelphia and New York saw plenty of wind and snow, but Boston was in the crosshairs. The city could get more than 2 feet (61 centimeters) of snow by the time it moves out early Sunday. Winds gusted as high as 83 mph (134 kph) on Cape Cod in Massachusetts. More than 22 inches (45 centimeters) of snow had fallen by midafternoon on part of Long Island, and Bayville, New Jersey, had 19 inches (48 centimeters). The wind scoured the ground bare in some spots and piled the snow into huge drifts in others. Forecasters watched closely for new snowfall records, especially in Boston, where the heaviest snow was expected later Saturday. The Boston area's modern snowfall record is 27.6 inches, set in 2003. New York City and Philadelphia were far from setting all-time records but still saw significant snowfall, with at least 7.5 inches (19 centimeters) in New York's Central Park and at the Philadelphia airport. Many flights at airports serving New York, Boston and Philadelphia were canceled Saturday, according to FlightAware. More than 4,500 flights were canceled across the U.S., though airports in the Northeast didn't report evidence of mass strandings, given that the storm was anticipated and many airlines called off flights in advance. Amtrak canceled all its high-speed Acela trains on the busy Boston-to-Washington corridor and canceled or limited other service. Video on social media showed wind and waves battering North Weymouth, south of Boston, flooding streets with a slurry of frigid water. Other video showed a street underwater on Nantucket and waves crashing against the windows of a building in Plymouth. Over 120,000 homes and businesses lost power in Massachusetts, with failures mounting. No other states reported widespread outages. Parts of 10 states were under blizzard warnings at some point: Maine, New Hampshire, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, Connecticut, New York and New Jersey, along with much of the Delmarva Peninsula in Delaware, Maryland and Virginia. The National Weather Service considers a storm a blizzard if it meets the following conditions: It has snowfall or blowing snow and winds of at least 35 mph (56 kph) that reduce visibility to a quarter-mile or less for at least three hours. In many areas, Saturday's storm met those criteria. Rhode Island, all of which was under a blizzard warning, banned all non-emergency road travel. In West Hartford, Connecticut, a tractor-trailer jackknifed on Interstate 84, closing several lanes. Massachusetts banned heavy trucks from interstate highways. Ocean City, Maryland, recorded at least a foot (30 centimeters) of snow. Maryland State Police tweeted that troopers had received more than 670 calls for service and responded to over 90 crashes by midmorning. New York Gov. Kathy Hochul advised people to stay home and warned of below-zero wind chills after the storm passes. The state had declared a state of emergency Friday evening. Police on Long Island said they had to help motorists stuck in the snow. In Philadelphia, few drivers ventured onto streets covered in knee-high drifts. Washington and Baltimore got some snow but were largely spared. The worst of the nor'easter was expected to blow by Sunday morning into Canada, where several provinces were under warnings.
Winter Storm Kenan Brings Travel to a Standstill, Leaves Hundreds of Thousands Without Power - Travel by road and air came to a standstill, hundreds of thousands were without power and people were being told to stay home as a powerful winter storm lashed the Northeast Saturday with high winds and heavy snow.The system, named Winter Storm Kenan by The Weather Channel, brought blizzard conditions to areas including Boston's Logan Airport and the New Jersey coast as well as parts of New York, Connecticut, Delaware and Maine. More than 102,000 power outages were being reported in Massachusetts as of about 6:15 p.m. EDT, according to poweroutage.us. That was down from about 120,000 earlier in the evening.Each of those numbers represents a single customer, meaning hundreds of thousands are without electricity in frigid temperatures.These are some of the top snowfalls as of Saturday afternoon, compiled by weather.com meteorologists.
- -Connecticut: 21.5 inches in Groton
- -Massachusetts: 24 inches in Bridgewater; 14.5 inches in Boston
- -New Jersey: 21 inches in Bayville; 16 inches in Atlantic City
- -New York: 24.1 inches at Islip Airport
- -Rhode Island: 21 inches near Warren
Winds were especially fierce closer to the coast. These are some of the top gusts.
- -Connecticut: 65 mph near New London
- -Maine: 71 mph near Cape Elizabeth
- -Massachusetts: 83 mph near Wellfleet
- -New Hampshire: 67 mph near Rye
- -New York: 63 mph near Montauk
- -Rhode Island: 72 mph near Block Island
Nor'easter hammering East Coast with blizzard conditions, and New England is bracing for the heaviest snow – CNN A nor'easter is delivering heavy snow and fierce winds along much of the East Coast with more to come into Saturday night -- as many areas endure or await near-whiteout conditions and parts of New England brace for what could be record snowfall. About nine million people were under blizzard warnings Saturday evening from New York to Maine, mainly in coastal areas, making for terrible visibility and dangerous travel. A blizzard, by the National Weather Service's definition, requires blowing or falling snow, winds of at least 35 miles per hour, and visibility of a quarter-mile or less for at least three hours. At least 14 inches of snow had fallen in parts of Delaware, Maryland, New Jersey and Long Island by Saturday afternoon. In New Jersey's Atlantic City, howling wind was whipping snow sideways Saturday morning, and a CNN crew there could barely see anything a block away. The city crushed its all-time January snowfall record by Saturday, reaching a staggering monthly total of 35.2 inches of snow. It had received about 19.2 inches prior to the storm and added another 16 inches of snow on Saturday, CNN meteorologist Gene Norman said Saturday afternoon. Up to 2 feet of snow could fall by Sunday morning from Long Island through Rhode Island, Massachusetts, New Hampshire and Maine, CNN forecasters said. And Boston, eastern Massachusetts and parts of Maine could get more than 2 feet of snow, which could threaten Boston's one-day snowfall record of 23.6 inches set on February 17, 2003. Snow could fall at rates of 2 to 4 inches per hour in some locations. The storm became a "bomb cyclone" Saturday morning, meaning the storm strengthened rapidly and had the barometric pressure drop a certain amount within 24 hours, the Weather Prediction Center said. The blizzard warnings in coastal areas from Virginia to New England excluded Philadelphia and New York City but snow still is hitting those cities, with nearly a foot possible in each. Notable locations within the warning area include Atlantic City, New Jersey; the eastern half of New York's Long Island; Cape Cod, Massachusetts; Boston; and Portland, Maine. Nearly 19 million people were under winter weather alerts across six states Saturday evening extending from southern New York to Maine and including New York City and Boston. And blizzard conditions are possible into early Sunday from eastern Massachusetts to eastern Maine, the National Weather Service said. And much of the Northeast can expect "dangerous" wind chills, some dipping below zero, Sunday morning as the storm makes its way out, the service said. More than 3,500 flights within, into or out of the US have been canceled Saturday, according to FlightAware. More than 120,000 customers in the state were without power as of 3:30 p.m. Saturday, according to PowerOutage.us. With winds pushing seawater ashore, some streets were flooding in Massachusetts' Martha's Vineyard on Saturday morning, CNN affiliate WCVB reported. On Nantucket, floodwater covered Easy Street and lapped up against some homes Saturday morning, video recorded by Blair Perkins showed. High winds and snow pushed over several trees across the island while some areas were out of power because of downed wires, Nantucket Fire Chief Stephen Murphy told CNN on Saturday afternoon. Several roadways were also closed because of flooding, the chief said. "We do have coastal flooding when we get these kinds of storms, but today was pretty intense," Jason Graziadei, an editor at the local newsletter Nantucket Current, told CNN on Saturday afternoon. "People (are) kind of just hunkering down out here." Scituate, a coastal Massachusetts town southeast of Boston, had some mild to moderate flooding at high tide Saturday morning, with water splashing over seawalls, In Marshfield, another coastal Massachusetts town, about 4 feet of water came over the seawall at high tide, More coastal flooding is possible, forecasters warned. Parts of Massachusetts and Long Island were under coastal flood advisories. "The combination of strong northeast winds and high seas will bring storm surges that, if coinciding with high tide, would lead to minor or moderate coastal flooding," the weather service office in Boston said.
These are the most extreme temperatures in the history of Massachusetts and other New England states - masslive.com -- On Aug. 16, 2020, California’s Death Valley reached 130 degrees Fahrenheit, according to an automated measuring system there, representing one of the highest temperatures ever recorded on the planet. The world record, also recorded at Death Valley, was 134 degrees in July 1913. More than 210 degrees Fahrenheit separates the highest and the lowest temperatures on record in the United States, the third-largest country in the world. As some states are infamous for having blistering hot summers, others become inundated by winter storms and frigid cold. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) reported that the summer of 2020 was the hottest on record in the Northern Hemisphere and the second-hottest summer globally.Stacker consulted 2019 data from the NOAA’s State Climate Extremes Committee (SCEC) to create this slideshow illustrating the hottest and coldest temperatures ever recorded in each state. Each slide also reveals the all-time highest 24-hour precipitation record and all-time highest 24-hour snowfall.Check out data from each New England state below:
Severe floods and landslides leave at least 34 people dead, 64 000 affected in Madagascar - The passage of Tropical Cyclone "Ana" together with the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) caused prolonged heavy rains in Madagascar, leaving at least 34 people dead and more than 64 000 affected. Ana is the first named storm of the 2022 Southwest Indian Ocean cyclone season.Ana was still a tropical depression when it moved over Madagascar on January 22, further exacerbating severe floods caused by ITCZ since January 17.1The system intensified in the Mozambique Channel into a Moderate Tropical Storm at 00:00 UTC on January 24, some 8 hours before making landfall in Mozambique's Angoche District, Nampula Province, with maximum sustained winds of 85 km/h (53 mph).2Together with the passage of ITCZ, Ana caused severe floods and landslides in Madagascar, affecting more than 64 000 people in 7 regions.In the capital Antananarivo, this severe rainfall event dumped several months' worth of rain. January is the wettest month in the capital, with 340 mm (13.39 inches) of rain.More than 58 000 people were affected in Analamanga Region, mainly in Antananarivo-Renivohitra districts.At least 10 people lost their lives from January 17 to 19, and another 24 during the weekend. Almost all fatalities took place in the capital, where traditional houses collapsed.37 people died in Alaotra-Mangoro and 1 in Matsiatra Ambony.More than 6 800 homes are underwater and many others are at risk of flooding or collapsing, forcing nearly 39 000 people to evacuate (27 000 over the past weekend due to Ana).The government continues to carry out preventive evacuations in Antananarivo, which is on Red Alert for further flooding as the levels of rivers are increasing and reaching the emergency threshold.3The Red Alert for floods has led the Ministry of Education to extend the suspension of classes in the Analamanga Region and other areas until January 28.The rains have also damaged roads and other infrastructure in the Analamanga Region, including the water intake structure of the treatment station in Ambohidratrimosome District.Some parts of the national road connecting the capital to Ambatondrazaka, in the east of the country, were also destroyed, impacting transport in and out of Antananarivo.Mozambique's National Institute for Management and Disaster Risk Reduction said two people had been killed and 66 injured, while 546 homes had been partially destroyed and another 115 completely destroyed.Government and UN agencies estimate that 500 000 people may be impacted in Mozambique's Nampula, Zambezia, and Sofala provinces.4Flooding caused by Ana was also reported in Zimbabwe and Malawi on January 24 and 25.Floods in Malawi killed one person and forced Electricity Generation Company (EGENCO) to shut down all its power plants, leaving only 30% of the country's installed capacity and causing widespread blackouts. The Kapichira hydropower station was damaged particularly bad, EGENCO said, adding that the intake dam structure had been partly washed away during flash floods.5 Search and rescue operations are underway in the town of Chikwawa.According to the Malawi Red Cross National Response Team member Chawezi Tembo, there is urgent need for airlifting evacuation as water levels are still rising due to continued rainfall.
Most of Malawi without power after floods caused by Tropical Cyclone "Ana" - Tropical Cyclone "Ana" made landfall over Mozambique on January 24, 2022, and continued moving west over Malawi while weakening and dissipating, but still dumping very heavy rain. Mozambique's National Institute for Management and Disaster Risk Reduction said two people had been killed and 66 injured, while 546 homes had been partially destroyed and another 115 completely destroyed.1 Government and UN agencies estimate that 500 000 people may be impacted in Mozambique's Nampula, Zambezia, and Sofala provinces.2 Floods in Malawi killed one person, injured another 30, and forced Electricity Generation Company (EGENCO) to shut down all its power plants, leaving only 30% of the country's installed capacity and causing widespread blackouts. EGENCO spokesperson Moses Gwaza said Tuesday he is uncertain as to when the machines may resume generating electricity, but was optimistic that electricity may by back by Wednesday morning, January 26. The Kapichira hydropower station was damaged particularly bad, EGENCO said, adding that the intake dam structure had been partly washed away during flash floods. Search and rescue operations are underway in the town of Chikwawa. According to the Malawi Red Cross National Response Team member Chawezi Tembo, there is an urgent need for airlifting evacuation as water levels are still rising due to continued rainfall.
Tropical Cyclone "Ana" leaves at least 70 people dead, Batsirai forms east of Madagascar - Tropical Cyclone "Ana" damaged or destroyed tens of thousands of homes and left at least 70 people dead in Madagascar, Mozambique and Malawi, as of January 27, 2022. Ana is the first named storm of the 2022 Southwest Indian Ocean cyclone season. Another tropical cyclone formed east of Madagascar today -- Tropical Cyclone "Batsirai" -- and current forecast models call for a direct hit over the country on February 5. While it's still too early to be sure, this could turn out to be a significant tropical cyclone.Ana made landfall in Mozambique on January 24, 2022,1 leaving at least 18 people killed, and continued moving west over Malawi, claiming another 11 lives.The passage of Tropical Cyclone "Ana" together with the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) caused a week of heavy rains in Madagascar, leaving at least 41 people dead and more than 64 000 affected.2Tens of thousands of homes were damaged or destroyed across the affected region, bridges were washed away and agricultural fields were submerged. An unknown number of farm animals drowned.3Severe floods in Malawi forced Electricity Generation Company (EGENCO) to shut down all its power plants, leaving only 30% of the country's installed capacity and causing widespread blackouts. EGENCO spokesperson Moses Gwaza said Tuesday he is uncertain as to when the machines may resume generating electricity. The Kapichira hydropower station was damaged particularly bad, EGENCO said, adding that the intake dam structure had been partly washed away during flash floods.Power was partially restored by Thursday, January 27.The storm destroyed 10 000 homes in northern and central Mozambique, as well as dozens of schools and hospitals, and downed power lines. Ana is the first named storm of the 2022 Southwest Indian Ocean cyclone season. While the damage it caused is still being assessed and the death toll is expected to rise, another tropical cyclone -- Batsirai -- formed well east of Madagascar.It's still too early to be sure, but this could turn out to be a significant tropical cyclone making a direct hit over Madagascar around February 5. Reintesification is likely in the Mozambique Channel, followed by landfall over Mozambique.
Wildfire near Big Sur prompts evacuations, closes major highway, California (video) The Colorado Fire near Big Sur in Monterey County, Palo Colorado Canyon, California has so far consumed 283 ha (700 acres) of land as is 35% contained, as of 04:25 UTC on January 24, 2022. The fire started on January 21 in a steep canyon and quickly spread toward the sea, prompting the Monterey County officials to order evacuations for about 500 residents living areas West of 3 800 Palo Colorado Rd. to Highway 1 and south to Bixby Creek. A stretch of two-lane Highway 1 near Big Sur was closed and there is currently no estimated time for reopening. This highway is prone to closures due to fires and mudslides caused by heavy rains. The Monterey County Health Department advised residents to boil their tap water due to potential water system infrastructure damage. At least 1 structure was destroyed. The fire was driven by strong winds affecting the entire state. NWS Bay Area station near Healdsburg Hills registered a wind gust of 155 km/h (96 mph) on January 22. Cecile Juliette, a spokesperson for the California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection said it's unusual to have a fire of this size here on the coast at the end of January. "The fact that it's January and we had a fire of this size so close to the coast is of great concern. This just needs to get everybody's attention that there is no longer a fire season."
The Gulf Stream has increased steadily over the last century --Together with colleagues, Lars H. Smedsrud, professor at UiB and researcher at the Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, have examined 100 years of research results to see how the ocean transport has evolved."It was surprising to find such consistent results that show a steady increase, which entails that the Gulf Stream's extension into the Nordic Seas has strengthened," professor Lars H. Smedsrud says.With the surprising volume increase, the total heat transport has increased with 30 percent. Smedsrud and his team have examined changes in relation to ice melting in the Arctic, glacier melting on Greenland and CO2uptake from the atmosphere."While we have expected an increase in temperature, there is nothing about global warming that would suggest an increase in volume transport. But the increase is consistent with both stronger winds and declining sea ice covers. In addition, we see an increase in the vertical and horizontal ocean circulation in the Nordic Seas and the Arctic," Smedsrud explains.The study covers the Nordic Seas and the Arctic sea ice and is published in Reviews of Geophysics.Smedsrud explains that global warming could potentially weaken the vertical part of the ocean circulation in the future, the part known as the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). How the ocean circulation will evolve in the future, is still uncertain. However, the study also shows a steady loss of sea ice in the Arctic over the last hundred years, which has allowed stronger uptake of CO2 from the atmosphere.
Bangladesh-Based Group Promotes Plans to Resettle Climate Refugees by Jerri-Lynn Scofield --At the same time as the Biden administration is handing out more permits to extract fossil fuels from public lands than did Trump, some on the other side of the world are pushing forward with proposals to resettle people displaced by climate change.Although Bangladesh is one of the world’s poorest countries, it’s home to individuals and institutions with a strong tradition of designing and implementing innovative policy models – some of which have been exported elsewhere. Perhaps the best-known of these is the Grameen Bank’s micro-landing initiatives – for which founder Muhammad Yunus won the Nobel Peace Prize. Yet the efforts of BRAC NGO, are far less well-known outside Bangladesh, despite being equally if not far more significant. One life-saving BRAC initiative I learned about first-hand slashed the number of children who succumb to diarrhea, as I wrote in this 2019 post, Clean Water: UNICEF Shows More Children Die from Diarrhea than Direct Violence in Conflict Zones.With these initiatives in the back of my mind, I was cheered – and unsurprised – to read in today’s Guardian about the efforts of the International Centre for Climate Change and Development (ICCCAD), a Bangladesh-based group, to resettled climate refugees, Port in a storm: the trailblazing town welcoming climate refugees in Bangladesh.Low-lying Bangladesh is on the front-line of the climate catastrophe, and along with India, on the other side of the border, is now even more regularly pummelled by destructive cyclones a subject I’ve covered in multiple posts (see, e.g., The Front Lines of Climate Change: Cyclone Yaas and the Sundarbans; Climate Change: Hurricanes Getting Stronger; Cyclone Amphan Pummels Bengal; More Mangroves: Protecting Tropical Coastal Areas from Cyclone Damage; and Climate Change: The Wrath of Cyclone Fani). If these front-line countries were to wait for richer countries to save them – well, let’s just say, they’d be waiting a very long-time – and might all very well drown, or starve, first. In this post, I’ll rely largely on The Guardian account. In a future post, I might examine the ICCCAD’s proposals more closely. Alas, today I was unable to download the group’s report from their website. So, for the moment, over to The Guardian:
Tonga eruption was so intense it caused the atmosphere to ring like a bell -The Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha'apai eruption reached an explosive crescendo on Jan. 15, 2022. Its rapid release of energy powered an ocean tsunami that caused damage as far away as the U.S. West Coast, but it also generated pressure waves in the atmosphere that quickly spread around the world.The atmospheric wave pattern close to the eruption was quite complicated, but thousands of miles away it appeared as an isolated wave front traveling horizontally at over 650 miles an houras it spread outward.NASA's James Garvin, chief scientist at the Goddard Space Flight Center, told NPR the space agency estimated the blast was around 10 megatons of TNT equivalent, about 500 times as powerful as the bomb dropped on Hiroshima, Japan, during World Word II. From satellites watching with infrared sensors above, the wave looked like a ripple produced by dropping a stone in a pond.The pulse registered as perturbations in the atmospheric pressure lasting several minutes as it moved over North America, India, Europe and many other places around the globe. Online, people followed the progress of the pulse in real time as observers posted their barometric observations to social media. The wave propagated around the whole world and back in about 35 hours.
Asteroid 2022 BT flew past Earth at 0.26 LD - A newly-discovered asteroid designated 2022 BT flew past Earth at a distance of 0.26 LD / 0.00068 AU (101 726 km / 63 209 miles) at 06:22 UTC on January 24, 2022.This is the 10th known asteroid to fly past Earth within 1 lunar distance since the start of the year.Asteroid 2022 BT was first observed at Catalina Sky Survey, Arizona on January 25, 1 day after it made its close approach to our planet.The object belongs to the Apollo group of asteroids and has an estimated diameter between 3.1 and 6.9 m (10.2 - 22.6 feet).
A chunk of SpaceX rocket that has drifted through space for years is on a collision course with the moon - A chunk of a SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket is likely to crash into the moon in March, according to astronomers tracking space junk. The booster has been drifting in space for seven years, but it is now headed for an impact. Bill Gray, the owner of projectpluto.com first reported the upcoming crash in a blog post. It is likely the "first unintentional case" of a human object hitting the moon, Gray wrote. But there's no cause for panic, Jonathan McDowell, a Harvard astronomer, said in a tweet Tuesday. "Just another hole in the green cheese," he said in another tweet Tuesday. The moon, unlike Earth, doesn't have a thick atmosphere to burn up incoming objects. As such, things headed for the moon tend to make impact, helping to create the vast number of craters on its surface. "Rooting" for an impact The booster, the part of the rocket that provides a burst of energy to get it off the ground, launched in February 2015 and weighs about 3.6 tons (4 metric tonnes), Ars Technica's Space Editor reported Monday..
Methane in the atmosphere is at an all-time high. What it means for climate change -- Methane recently reached 1,900 parts per billion (ppb) of Earth's atmosphere according to measurements taken by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration(NOAA) in the US. This compares with about 700 ppbbefore the industrial revolution. Methane is a powerful greenhouse gas, but lasts around nine years in the air. Including the knock-on effects it has on other gases, its total global warming impact since 1750 is roughly half that of CO₂. After rising sharply in the 1980s and 1990s, atmospheric methane then stabilized. Growth resumed in 2007 and has accelerated in recent years—the sharpest rise on record happened in 2020. Methane is becoming the largest discrepancy from emissions trajectories necessary for meeting the 2015 Paris Agreement's target. About 600 million tons of methane are released into the atmosphere each year. Estimates suggest two-fifths of these emissions come from natural sources, mainly rotting vegetation in swamps. The remaining three-fifths of emissions come from sources tied to human activity.Emissions from the fossil fuel industry are well over 100 million tons a year and grew rapidly in the 1980s. Natural gas, which in the UK heats homes and generates roughly half of electricity, is mainly methane. Gas industry leaks are widespread at wells and pipelines and from distribution pipes under streets and home boilers. The coal industry was reponsible for up to one-third of fossil fuel emissions between 2000 and 2017 via ventilation shafts in mines and during the transportation and crushing of coal for power stations.Agriculture, producing about 150 million tons a year, is the largest overall source. As are urban landfills and sewage systems, contributing about 70 million tons annually.Scientists can identify sources of methane by studying the proportion of carbon-12 to carbon-13 in the atmosphere. Biogenic methane, made by microbes in rotting vegetation or in cow stomachs, is relatively rich in carbon-12, while methane from fossil fuels and fires has comparatively more carbon-13.For two centuries, rapidly expanding gas, coal and oil industries steadily drove atmospheric methane richer in carbon-13. Since 2007, that trend has reversed, and the proportion of carbon-13 in atmospheric methane hasdecreased. Although fossil fuel emissions may still be growing, soaring methane emissions are now primarily the result of faster-growing biogenic sources.From tropical swamps in the Amazon, Nile and Congo basins to tundra in Russia and muskeg bogs in Canada, wetlands emit roughly 200 million tons of methane a year. As global temperatures increase, the rate at which wetlands generate and decompose biomass grows and these environments release more methane. Methane emissions accelerate climate change and climate change causes the release of more methane—a positive feedback of warming feeding more warming.
McKinsey calculates the staggering capital spending required to reach net-zero by 2050 - As the world grapples with a worsening climate change crisis, governments and companies are pledging to achieve net-zero greenhouse emissions by 2050 — a goal that will require an extra $3.5 trillion a year in capital spending, according to estimates from a McKinsey & Company report released on Tuesday.That amount is the equivalent of half of global corporate profits, one-quarter of total tax revenue, or 7% of household spending in 2020. "The net-zero transition will amount to a massive economic transformation," said Mekala Krishnan, a partner at the McKinsey Global Institute and the lead author of the report. The report estimates the transition's effects on demand, capital allocation, costs and jobs across sectors in 69 countries that produce about 85% of global emissions. Capital spending on physical assets for energy and land-use systems during the transition will amount to roughly $275 trillion, or $9.2 trillion each year on average, the report said. That's $3.5 trillion more than the amount being spent on those assets annually today. The report said an additional $1 trillion of today's annual spending must be reallocated from high-emissions to low-emissions assets in order to achieve a net-zero transition. It also urged businesses, governments and institutions to prepare for uncertainty during the transition and warned stakeholders to accelerate efforts to decarbonize and adapt to climate risk. Keeping global temperatures from surpassing the 1.5 degrees Celsius target under the Paris Climate agreement would require the world to nearly halve emissions within the next decade and reach net-zero emissions by 2050, according to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. But the world has already warmed roughly 1.1 degrees Celsius above preindustrial levels and is on track to see global temperature rise of 2.4 degrees Celsius by the century's end. The cost of climate change will be severe if no action is taken. For instance, a report from insurance giant Swiss Re estimates that climate change could cut the global economy by $23 trillion by 2050, essentially shaving off about 11% to 14% from global economic output. The McKinsey report noted that the net-zero transition will also have a significant impact on labor, resulting in a gain of about 200 million jobs and a loss of about 185 million jobs across the world by midcentury. Sectors with high-emissions products or operations, which generate about 20% of global GDP, will also see major impacts on demand, production costs and employment.
Shell’s massive carbon capture facility in Canada emits far more than it captures, study says - One of the only facilities in the world that uses carbon capture and storage technology (CCS) to reduce the emissions of hydrogen production has been found to emit far more greenhouse gas emissions than it captures. The Quest plant in Alberta, Canada, owned by oil giant Shell and designed to capture carbon emissions from oil sands operations and safely store them underground, has previously been touted as a "thriving example" of how CCS is working to significantly reduce carbon emissions. However, an investigation by watchdog group Global Witness, published last week, showed that while 5 million tons of carbon dioxide had been prevented from escaping into the atmosphere at the plant since 2015, it also released 7.5 million metric tons of greenhouse gases over the same period. The investigation noted that, per year, that's the equivalent carbon footprint of 1.2 million gasoline cars. It means just 48% of the plant's carbon emissions were captured, according to the report. That's far short of the 90% carbon capture rate promised by the industry for these types of projects in general. In response to the report, a spokesperson for Shell told CNBC via email that Global Witness' analysis was "simply wrong" and stressed that the Quest facility was designed to capture around a third of carbon dioxide emissions. Proponents of CCS believe these technologies will play an important role in meeting global energy and climate goals. And using CCS alongside hydrogen production, which is sometimes referred to as "blue hydrogen" or "fossil hydrogen," has been pushed by the oil and gas industry as a potential solution to the energy transition. Climate researchers, campaigners and environmental advocacy groups have repeatedly admonished CCS as a climate solution, however, arguing that not only do these technologies have a history of failure, but backing these projects prolongs our reliance on the fossil fuel industry and distracts from a much-needed pivot to renewable alternatives. "Oil and gas companies' promotion of fossil hydrogen is a fig leaf for them to carry on with their toxic practices – the extraction and burning of fossil fuels," Dominic Eagleton, senior gas campaigner at Global Witness, said in a statement. "The single best way for companies like Shell to help tackle the climate crisis is to phase out all fossil fuel operations, rather than find ways to hide their climate-wrecking activity behind false solutions."
Project Tundra's carbon storage plans approved by North Dakota regulators - North Dakota regulators have approved underground storage plans for the Project Tundra carbon capture effort in Oliver County northwest of Bismarck. The three-member Industrial Commission voted unanimously Friday to approve several orders related to the project intended to capture climate-warming emissions from the Milton R. Young Station coal-fired power plant operated by Minnkota Power Cooperative. Minnkota has worked for years to develop the project, which involves injecting carbon dioxide from the plant into rocks deep underground for permanent storage. “North Dakota is positioned to be a global leader in finding solutions to reduce CO2 emissions,” “Not only do we have ideal geology for CO2 storage, we also have a state that promotes innovation and provides leadership in the development of cutting-edge energy technologies.” Minnkota has not yet made a final decision on whether to construct the $1 billion Project Tundra, but it expects to decide late this year, the co-op said Friday. If it moves forward, construction could start near the end of the year and wrap up by 2026. Project financing and other details are still in the works. A federal tax credit is helping to push carbon capture efforts such as Project Tundra forward. Minnkota on Friday said it is working on a grant application for final engineering work to be vetted by North Dakota’s Lignite Research Council, which is an arm of the Industrial Commission. The co-op is also considering applying this year for loan assistance through the state’s new Clean Sustainable Energy Authority, spokesperson Ben Fladhammer said. Minnkota told the Tribune last fall that it is also seeking a federal loan guarantee in the ballpark of $700 million. Friday’s vote to permit the storage component of Project Tundra makes this the second such project to receive approval from the Industrial Commission. The members, chaired by Gov. Doug Burgum, approved the first last year for Red Trail Energy, an ethanol plant in Richardton in Stark County. Minnkota proposes to capture and store up to 4 million metric tons of carbon dioxide per year from the power plant’s exhaust gas. The plant produces as much as 6 million metric tons of carbon emissions per year by generating electricity. The gas is expected to be stored primarily in the Broom Creek formation more than 4,000 feet deep. It would be injected down two wells near the plant outside Center at first, and possibly into a third well in the future. The rock formation is sealed by a thick layer of impermeable rock on top meant to keep the carbon dioxide in place.
Top oil states vie for carbon capture oversight to speed up permits - Top U.S. oil-producing states are trying to wrest oversight of carbon capture wells from federal regulators, hoping to speed the oil industry's preferred approach to combating climate warming amid calls for limits on fossil fuel production.Companies are proposing carbon capture and storage (CCS) hubs to sequester greenhouse gas emissions from refineries, chemical and natural gas plants, a move that could help slow global warming.The rules governing the carbon-injection wells for most states require federal approval with the first permits taking around six years to win a green light.Oil states, including Texas and Louisiana, want to take over permit reviews and enforcement authority, also known as primacy, from the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) for carbon dioxide (CO2) and other greenhouse gas storages sites.The third-largest oil producing state, North Dakota, won oversight in 2018 and issued its first permit last year after an eight-month review. New Mexico, the second largest oil producer after Texas, has begun initial discussions with the EPA for applying to regulate carbon sequestration wells, an official said.States must demonstrate their own regulations are as stringent as the EPA's. However, environmentalists worry putting state regulators in charge will lead to lax monitoring once regulatory agencies in oil-friendly states take charge.The EPA last year launched a probe of Texas' air quality regulator for not properly monitoring a big air polluter. Environmental groups also have won multi-million dollar settlements in federal courts for pollution unpenalized by Texas.North Dakota this month issued its second carbon-sequestration permit around seven months after utility Minnkota Power Cooperative applied. Its first permit took eight months to win approval. The only EPA permits for wells currently in operation — both tied to ethanol maker Archer Daniels Midland — took nearly six years, according to ClearPath."This is a multi-year process," said Scott Goldberg, who runs the new Carbon Solutions group at EnLink Midstream , which aims to convert some of its natural gas pipelines in Louisiana to carry carbon dioxide from certain plants to underground storage sites.
Congress is spending billions on carbon capture. Is it a climate savior or a boondoggle? - While much of President Joe Biden's climate change agenda has stalled in Congress, there is one nascent — and controversial — technology for reducing carbon emissions that has received billions in public funds in 2020 and 2021: Carbon capture. Last year's infrastructure legislation gave the largest amount of funding ever to carbon capture projects, at $12 billion. And lawmakers are debating dramatically increasing funding for carbon capture in the stalled Build Back Better Act. Carbon capture, which removes CO2 emissions from high-polluting sources like industrial facilities or power plants, could play an increasingly important role in global efforts to stave off the worst effects of climate change, according to international regulatory bodies. The International Energy Agency last year projected that carbon capture would account for nearly 15% of all the ways that we remove carbon, and the International Panel on Climate Change endorsed it as part of a suite of net-zero CO2 emissions scenarios. "There is no solution to get to net-zero without carbon capture technology," Collin O'Mara, president and CEO of the National Wildlife Federation, told reporters last week. Globally, we will need to capture about 4 billion to 7 billion tons of carbon dioxide annually in order to meet climate goals, according to Julio Friedmann, a senior research scholar at the Center on Global Energy Policy at Columbia University. He noted that in most sustainable climate models, carbon capture plays as big a role as renewable energy. "Carbon capture on power plants looks as big as solar, or wind. It's bigger than nuclear in most of these models. It's as big as stopping eating meat," he said. But environmentalists are skeptical of funding a technology they say is too expensive and rarely works, as many high-profile carbon capture projects shutter or run into snags. Just this month, reports found that two carbon capture facilities in Canada were underperforming — one power plant was capturing just half the carbon it had advertised, while a facility supposed to be creating clean hydrogen was actually emitting the equivalent of 1.2 million cars. "We've got 10 years to solve the climate crisis and we need to spend our money wisely," said John Noël, senior climate campaigner at Greenpeace. "Putting it in things that we know work makes more sense than funding something that's been promised for 20 years and still is ending up in failed projects."
House panel broadens probe into climate disinformation by Big Oil - The House Committee on Oversight and Reform has broadened its investigation into the role of fossil fuel companies in misleading the public about climate change, asking members of the boards of directors of ExxonMobil, BP, Chevron and Shell Oil to testify before Congress next month about their firms’ commitments to curbing global warming.The move by the powerful Oversight Committee comes as Senate Democrats struggle to pass sweeping climate and social spending legislation. President Biden acknowledged Wednesday that further cuts to his Build Back Better proposal may be necessary, and climate-fueled extreme weather events are intensifying around the country.Oversight panel members previously grilled the CEOs of the four oil and gas companies, as well as two trade associations they fund, at a historic six-hour hearing in October. The proceedings grew heated at times as Democrats argued that the oil industry has deceived the public for decades about the perils of burning fossil fuels, which releases large quantities of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases that are dangerously warming Earth.The latest letters from the Oversight Committee, sent Thursday evening, call on directors at four of America’s largest oil and gas companies to testify about whether their firms’ commitments to cut emissions are consistent with the Paris climate accord adopted in 2015.“The hearing is part of the Committee’s ongoing investigation into the role of the fossil fuel industry in preventing meaningful action on global warming, including through misrepresenting the scale of industry efforts to address the crisis,” the letters said.“As worsening natural disasters linked to global warming devastate communities in the United States and globally, one of Congress’s top legislative priorities i s combating the increasingly urgent crisis of a changing climate,” they added. “To do this, Congress must address pollution caused by the fossil fuel industry and curb business practices that lead to delay and disinformation on these issues.”
Airlines in Europe say they are flying near-empty planes as omicron derails travel. They say E.U. rules mean they can’t stop.— As the omicron variant upends travel plans around the world, airlines say strict European Union regulations are forcing them to fly near-empty flights, which are unnecessary and environmentally harmful, that they argue they need to fly to save their long-term takeoff and landing slots at European airports. Airlines must use a certain percentage of their designated slots at airports to hold on to them. But low demand during the pandemic has led airlines to fly near-empty flights, often known as “ghost flights,” to meet the requirements. Lufthansa, a large German airline, said it canceled 33,000 trips, or 10 percent of its winter flights, due to low demand but still anticipates having to fly 18,000 “poorly booked” flights to secure its slots. The E.U. waived these requirements at the start of the pandemic but partially reinstated them last year. Before the pandemic, airlines needed to use 80 percent of their takeoff and landing slots to keep them. Last year, the E.U. said airlines need to use at least 50 percent of them and allowed them to apply for exceptions if they need to go below that threshold. The flight shame movement has travelers taking trains to save planet But airlines and environmental groups say it is not enough and the rules for exemptions are unclear. They want the E.U. to scrap the thresholds all together, at least during the pandemic. The requirement is scheduled to increase to 64 percent in the spring. Advertisement The American Federal Aviation Administration has minimum slot requirements at three airports — Kennedy and La Guardia airports in New York and Reagan National Airport in Washington — and waived the requirements through March for international flights. “We would rather cancel them, and they should also be avoided for the sake of the environment,” Maaike Andries, spokesperson for Brussels Airlines, which is owned by Lufthansa, told the Brussels Times, adding that she anticipates the airline needing to cancel 3,000 flights from now until March. E.U. officials have defended their policies and say they need to strike a balance between protecting consumers and boosting a hampered airline industry. If airlines could cancel flights with impunity, for example, they would be able to frequently rebook passengers on flights on different days to maximize profits.
'Inflection point.' Biden faces 2 tests that could remake solar - President Biden’s clean energy and jobs agenda is facing a critical test as the White House weighs several decisions on U.S. solar policy, with pressure mounting on multiple fronts. While the entire solar industry wants to see more panels and cells built in the U.S., there are differing views on how to get there. The current debate hinges largely on two questions: What should happen to Trump’s solar tariffs, and should Biden’s “Buy American” policy be changed? Solar is “the cheapest form of energy that has ever existed — now that the industry has scaled, how are we going to make sure we install as much as possible?” China currently dominates the solar manufacturing industry, supplying about 75 percent of solar equipment worldwide. Critics point out its factories are powered by coal and run by forced labor. One of the first tests for Biden comes by Feb. 6, when he must decide whether to extend the Trump Section 201 tariffs on solar panels and cells that supporters say saved the sliver of the U.S. manufacturing sector that existed. Tariff critics say they did little to boost the U.S. solar industry. But less attention has been given to another policy approach Biden often promotes: buying American. In recent months U.S. solar manufacturers say they hope the administration will build on the “America First” inclinations espoused by former President Trump. They are pressing Biden to expand the administration’s Buy American plan. Last year, Biden opened a dedicated office in the White House and issued an executive order to strengthen policies to increase the U.S. content in products that the federal government buys — everything from helicopter blades to office chairs (E&E News PM, Jan. 19). On Capitol Hill, Democratic Georgia Sens. Jon Ossoff and Raphael Warnock have in recent months urged the Office of Management and Budget to close what they say is a loophole in the Biden plan. Currently, it requires the federal government to buy U.S.-made solar panels but does not apply to power purchase agreements that power federal buildings. Requiring the purchase agreements to be supplied by solar “would ensure that the federal government’s procurement of clean energy not only supports our collective goals to tackle the climate crisis, but also supports good-paying American solar manufacturing jobs such as those based in Georgia,” the pair wrote in a letter last September to acting OMB Director Shalanda Young, who will soon face Senate confirmation to be Biden’s budget director. OMB has not said whether it intends to alter Biden’s policy, but last week it issued a press release saying it created a “Made in America” council to better track $600 billion in total yearly federal procurement spending.
New York regulators tap ConEdison to help interconnect up to 6 GW of offshore wind - The New York Public Service Commission (PSC) published an order Thursday implementing several recommendations on offshore wind from the power grid study the commission issued a year ago. The actions are designed to ensure the increasing number of projects will be able to interconnect efficiently with each other. Among other actions, regulators directed Consolidated Edison to submit details for an onshore hub that would support the interconnection for 5 GW-6 GW of offshore wind into lower Manhattan. In November, the utility had announced a series of clean energy commitments and had proposed building "clean energy hubs" in New York City to deliver offshore wind and other new resources. The order comes as New York begins a new round of solicitations for up to 2 GW of offshore wind that will require a meshed network of transmission to curb network congestion. "Today, among other things, the Commission addressed the Study’s critical recommendations relating to the integration of 9 GW of offshore wind with the State’s onshore network," PSC Chair Rory Christian said in a statement. In January, the U.S. Department of the Interior announced a February auction for offshore wind lease sales in the New York Bight. Those installations, which could use New York City as an on-land interconnection point, increasing the need for a "shared mesh configuration" of transmission for the new resources, according to the PSC order. "[W]e note the Initial Report's finding that a meshed approach would be the most flexible and adaptable to the availability and locations of future" leasing areas, the PSC wrote in its Jan. 20 order. According to the PSC order, a meshed transmission network "helps to mitigate generation tie outages and permits the users of the grid to direct their generation to the point of interconnection (POI) where those injections have the highest system value. The ability to transfer energy between onshore POIs also serves to reinforce the onshore grid and reduce network congestion." The recommendations the PSC is implementing would help "future-proof" the grid in supporting larger offshore wind development, said Noah Shaw, a partner in Foley Hoag's energy and climate practice. New York state's 2019 Climate Leadership and Community Protection Act (CLCPA) set a target of 9 GW of offshore wind by 2035. The PSC also directed the New York State Energy Research and Development Authority (NYSERDA) to require offshore wind proposals to be designed with multiple points of interconnection, creating capabilities to interconnect with a meshed system among multiple offshore wind projects. The upcoming solicitations will be the first to require that "multiple projects can connect to each other and make the most efficient use of the point of interconnection,"
Wind Turbines: Where do they cluster around the Great Lakes? – Great Lakes Now - Huge breezes are commonplace around the Great Lakes, which is part of why the region makes a good location for wind turbines.Though wind power has been utilized for centuries, it has only been harnessed as a widespread alternative energy source as recently as the 1990s.In 2016, the United States Geological Survey began tracking wind turbines. In 2018, it published adatabase with wind turbine records that it keeps regularly updated. To date, there are 70,808 turbines covering 44 states and territories, which includes Guam and Puerto Rico.In Canada, the Canadian Wind Turbine Database is maintained by Natural Resources Canada. The Canadian database is not as frequently updated as the U.S. database but reflects all wind turbines installed up through 2020.In the map, the largest concentration of wind turbines is along the Canadian side of Lake Huron in Ontario. The southern border of Minnesota, the plains of Illinois, and the thumb area of Michigan also highlight as areas with a higher density of wind turbines.
Louisiana Green Diesel Project Using CCS Advancing for Caldwell Parish Port - The Port of Columbia in Caldwell Parish, LA, and Strategic Biofuels LLC jointly announced the port has received a $15 million grant to improve the port’s accessibility and infrastructure in preparation for the Louisiana Green Fuels (LGF) renewable diesel plant. The grant is from the Louisiana Department of Transportation and Development (DOTD) through its Louisiana Port Construction and Development Priority Program. Funds would first be put toward upgrading surrounding roads to support the LGF’s estimated $700 million construction and infrastructure requirements. These upgrades are scheduled to begin mid-year, while construction for a 37-car rail spur and overpass is scheduled for 2023. “The early upgrading of Riverton Camp Road coming this summer provides strong support for LGF’s aggressive construction schedule,” said Strategic Biofuels COO Bob Meredith. “It allows us to begin actual plant construction as soon as the full project funding is secured, and we expect that to be in early 2023… “The port has also been a key contributor in our efforts with DOTD and Union Pacific Railroad. The strong support we’ve continued to receive from Caldwell Parish confirms the wisdom of locating the plant here.” Strategic Biofuels’ carbon-negative plant is expected to produce about 33.7 million gallons/year of renewable diesel using local forestry waste as feedstock. In a stakeholder update in December, CEO Paul Schubert noted that the company has secured more than 300 acres at the Port of Columbia site. It is enough land for a second plant once the first is complete, he said. The geology of the proposed plant site is, according to Strategic Biofuels, “ideal for sequestration.” Last August, the company demonstrated that carbon dioxide (CO2), the main greenhouse gas emitted during the fuel production process, may be stored deep underground for carbon capture and sequestration (CCS). The storage reservoir has capacity to store all the CO2 produced over the plant’s lifetime, according to company officials. With the successful completion of the CCS well test, Strategic Biofuels estimated that the total carbon intensity of the LGF plant would be minus 238 grams of CO2 equivalent/megajoule (gCO2e/MJ). For comparison, the California Air Resources Board estimates that typical renewable diesel has a carbon intensity score of 50-100 gCO2e/MJ.
State lawmakers enacted over 250 energy-related bills in 2021 | S&P Global Market Intelligence -- With the conclusion of the 2021 legislative year, states that remained in session during the fourth quarter passed a handful of measures ranging from ratemaking to utility commissioner experience prerequisites. During the last quarter of 2021, 16 energy-related measures were enacted, bringing the total of enacted measures to over 250 bills for the year. With roughly five times the amount of bills passed last year than in the prior years, legislators pushed through measures covering a wide array of issues that affect the utility industry.The quantity of bills enacted in 2021 was significantly increased from the 65 measures signed by the end of the 2020 calendar year and 120 measures enacted in 2019, as tracked by Regulatory Research Associates.A decline in enacted legislation toward the later months of the year is expected since a large majority of states wrap up their respective legislative sessions during the second and third quarters of the year. While only a handful of states remain in session during the last three months of the year, it does not diminish the quality or importance of the measures that are enacted. Major bills that affect the utility industry were still enacted during the fourth quarter of 2021. For example, lawmakers in North Carolina signed a sweeping energy bill that authorized the state's utilities to make use of new ratemaking mechanisms as well as pushed the state to move toward achieving carbon neutrality by 2050 without sacrificing reliability.Although a good deal of legislatures left an abundance of energy measures on the table, many states have only concluded the first year of a two-year legislative session, and roughly half of the country will allow for measures to be carried over into the 2022 legislative session.For major enacted and vetoed energy legislation tracked by RRA in 2021, please see the state-by-state summary available here.
Biden launches green buildings partnership with states, cities - The Biden administration is launching a new partnership with two states and several cities aimed at reducing planet-warming emissions from buildings. President Biden is expected to announce the new "Buildings Performance Standards Coalition" during remarks at the U.S. Conference of Mayors on Friday. According to a White House fact sheet first shared with The Hill, the partnership will include 33 state and local governments that encompass 20 percent of the country’s building footprint and 22 percent of its population. The fact sheet said that the initiative will “unlock energy efficiency and electrification across the buildings sector as an engine for job creation all while lowering energy bills for consumers.” The goal of the coalition is to advance legislation or regulation in each local or state jurisdiction by Earth Day 2024. It will do so by developing policy roadmaps, convening place-based teams to help develop policy and sharing results with one another. The states of Colorado and Washington have signed onto the initiative, as well as a number of cities, including New York, Los Angeles, Chicago, Philadelphia and Washington, D.C. The move comes as the Biden administration is eager to show that it’s taking action on climate change — especially as its social and climate spending agenda remains stalled in Congress. However, at a press conference this week, Biden expressed optimism that preserving a great deal of energy and environment-related spending is achievable. In its latest push, the White House also invoked labor, saying that members of the country’s building trades and unions have said they will work with members of the coalition. Meanwhile, the Energy Department (DOE) and Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) are expected to provide technical assistance. DOE will share best practices for governments taking on building efficiency standards. The fact sheet said that the EPA will provide “new tools” for calculating local planet-warming emissions. According to the fact sheet, Biden has an overarching goal of upgrading 4 million buildings and 2 million homes during his first term
Biden administration proposes updates to mobile home energy-efficiency - — At Factory Direct Homes here in central Vermont, Tony Flanders stepped through the front door of a gray double-wide mobile home and pointed at the living room window to his left. A thin coating on the glass helps make homes more energy efficient, he explained, and the double-wide show model is better protected from cold than base versions. But even this fancy double-wide couldn’t be sold in Vermont without a federal exemption, because it doesn’t meet state housing requirements. The mobile homes in which 22 million Americans live — also known as manufactured houses — are governed by federal requirements that haven’t changed in nearly 30 years. Spurred by a court order, the Biden administration is proposing long-awaited updates to energy-efficiency standards for manufactured homes that it projects will save mobile-home owners thousands of dollars and prevent millions of tons of greenhouse gas emissions from entering the atmosphere in the coming decades. But the new standards, due in May, have also sparked a fierce debate about costs, equity and the future of manufactured housing. The changes that the Biden administration has put forward include updates to insulation and windows, as well as heating and cooling systems. Some say the Energy Department’s plan goes too far. “We believe in the importance of energy efficiency,” said Lesli Gooch, CEO of the Manufactured Housing Institute, a trade organization. “We just don’t think that this proposal is going to have the desired impact. And in fact, it’s going to have a negative impact on the supply of affordable, manufactured housing.” “To us, the primary metric needs to be the upfront cost of the home,” added Mark Weiss, president of the Manufactured Housing Association for Regulatory Reform, another industry trade association. “Our concern is that these new requirements are going to make them substantially more costly.” Others argue that energy savings and better quality homes with higher resale values would cover any extra costs. They would like to see the Energy Department set even stricter standards. “There are a lot of low-income people in these homes and the impact on them is exactly the right question,” said Lowell Ungar, director of federal policy at the American Council for an Energy-Efficient Economy. “But putting them in homes in which they aren’t going to be able to afford the energy bills for the next few decades is not the solution to that problem.”Many advocates, however, haven’t been waiting for government or industry fixes. They are already building workarounds — from weatherization initiativesand zero-energy modular homes to grant programs and improved mortgage products — that can help residents lower their utility costs and combat climate change.
How Biden could close coal plants without CO2 regulations - EPA is preparing to Supreme Court-proof President Biden’s ambitions for a carbon-free power grid by looking beyond direct greenhouse gas regulation and relying on the knock-on effect of stricter air, waste and water rules.It’s a “comprehensive approach” to decarbonize the power grid that’s been in the works since the beginning of the Biden administration (Climatewire, Oct. 27, 2021).But now that the Supreme Court has agreed to take up a case that could limit how EPA regulates carbon from the power sector, it has become even more important for the agency to find alternative ways to show it can deliver on the president’s promise of a power grid that is 80 percent clean by the end of this decade — and carbon neutral five years later.The solution EPA is preparing to offer in the coming weeks is a sectorwide road map of the greenhouse gas,conventional air pollutant and water rules it plans to promulgate in the next few years. The strategy could push the ball forward on Biden’s climate commitments by making it less economic to run coal-fired power plants in this country. “It’s just a question of how hard EPA feels like squeezing, or legally how hard it can squeeze and politically how hard it can squeeze,” said David Bookbinder, chief counsel for the Niskanen Center, a Washington-based think tank. “Coal plants could find themselves even in a steeper slide than they are now.”EPA began floating the idea of a power sector “initiative” or “strategy” in private discussions last year before international climate talks began in Glasgow, Scotland. And acting EPA air chief Joe Goffman previewed the approach in public comments, as well as in the EPA chapter of the influential Climate 21 Project transition-period memo he co-wrote with Brenda Mallory, who became Biden’s White House Council on Environmental Quality chair, and Jennifer Macedonia, who is now also a senior EPA official. Goffman, who played a leading role in carbon regulation under President Obama and now leads the EPA team that will write climate and air pollutant rules, said last year that EPA Administrator Michael Regan had asked the agency to “think broadly across the different pollutants in the different media that are affected by the power sector” when charting a course on power plant carbon. Then in October, the Supreme Court — in a surprise move — agreed to review a case that could severely limit EPA’s options for regulating power plant carbon, confining the agency to efficiency measures inside the fence line at power stations (E&E News PM, Oct. 29, 2021). Such a rule would do far less to move the needle on Biden’s carbon goals than a systemwide standard that encourages fuel switching — as the Obama-era Clean Power Plan did.
What will best keep Xcel's grid reliable in a pinch: Gas plants or batteries? - The debate over the future of gas-fired power in Minnesota is likely to intensify, even though Xcel Energy has temporarily backed away from a controversial proposal that would have added two new plants. Xcel, the state's largest electricity provider, recently excised the new gas plants opposed by clean energy and environmental groups from its long-term power generation plan. State regulators start hearings on the plan this week. But the move is an effort to get the long-stalled plan approved, not an abandonment of the gas "peaking" plants. The company maintains the plants — which would operate only when the grid is strained — are critical to keeping electricity flowing. Clean energy and environmental groups have roundly opposed any new gas plants, saying they're not needed as battery technology and pricing improves. (Batteries store electricity to be discharged onto the grid). "You can provide all of the reliability and capacity services that you need with batteries," The Minnesota Public Utilities Commission (PUC) this week is slated to take up Xcel's Integrated Resource Plan, which lays out the company's long-term power generation plans. Investor-owned electric utilities must file such master plans every 18 months or so. Xcel's latest plan — filed in May 2019 and updated last year — is packed with significant changes. It calls for Xcel to exit coal power in eight years with the respective early closures of its Allen S. King plant in Oak Park Heights in 2028 and Sherco 3 in Becker in 2030. The PUC has already approved the early closures of Xcel's Sherco 2 and Sherco 1, two coal plants in Becker, respectively in 2023 and 2026. Clean power and environmental groups have all lauded Xcel's coal plant closures. But there's been much rancor over the role of natural gas generators in Xcel's fleet. Xcel's 2019 resource plan initially called for a roughly $800 million, 800-megawatt gas plant in Becker, which would effectively replace one of Sherco's three big coal generators. The gas plant was so contentious that Xcel successfully lobbied the legislature in 2017 to allow it to bypass the normal PUC approval process. However, Xcel dropped the Becker gas plant in June, a move hailed by clean energy groups. At the same time, Xcel announced plans to build two smaller gas plants — one each in southwestern Minnesota and North Dakota — at less than half the cost of the Becker plant.
Utility settles with regulators over coal ash pollution in western Pennsylvania streams - An electric utility has agreed to pay a $610,000 fine and build new discharge pipelines at two coal ash landfills as part of a settlement with federal and state agencies over water pollution. According to the settlement and a complaint filed in federal court in Pittsburgh by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency and Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection, West Penn Power exceeded federal pollution limits at two coal ash landfills it owns in western Pennsylvania – one at the Mingo Landfill in Union Township, Washington County, and the other at Springdale Landfill in Frazer Township, Allegheny County. The Mingo Landfill accepted coal ash from the now-retired, coal-fired Mitchell Power Plant in Union Township. The Springdale Landfill accepted coal ash from another now-retired plant, the Springdale Power Plant in Frazer Township.The landfills’ permits allowed for the release of wastewater from settlement ponds into nearby streams. But according to the complaint, monitoring reports filed by the company to the agencies showed the wastewater exceeded permitted levels of boron, a naturally-occurring element found in rocks, soil, and coal ash on “multiple occasions” from 2013 to 2021. Scientists have found high levels of boron can cause problems with reproductive organs in laboratory animals, and can limit the growth of aquatic insects. As part of the agreement, West Penn Power, a subsidiary of Akron-based FirstEnergy, agreed to build a new treatment system at the Springdale Landfill and a new discharge pipeline into the Allegheny River, instead of into the smaller Riddle Run. At the Mingo facility, the company agreed to build a 1,100-foot discharge pipeline to a new discharge point on Peters Creek, a tributary to the Monongahela River. It will also have to monitor for boron levels in Peters Creek for at least two years. The $610,000 penalty will be distributed evenly between the EPA and DEP. The proposed consent decree is subject to a 30-day public comment period and approval by a federal court in Pittsburgh.
Bitcoin operation ignites debate around the waste from coal mining in Pennsylvania - A once-dormant power plant is humming with activity outside Pittsburgh as thousands of miners work 24 hours a day. The miners at this site aren’t people, but supercomputers running complex math equations. The first to solve the equation is rewarded with the digital financial token known as bitcoin. But the large amount of power needed to run these computers has re-ignited a debate in Pennsylvania and around the country about the potential climate consequences of cryptocurrency. Bitcoin is a type of digital money not regulated by any company or government. It can be exchanged online between people anywhere in the world without going through a bank. While coins like quarters or pennies are physically minted -- bitcoin is minted as a virtual token by computers, through a process called “mining.” Jeff Campbell, who oversees the bitcoin mining operation at the Scrubgrass Power Plant in Kennerdell, Pennsylvania, said each of their computers generates an average of $30 a day mining bitcoin. “These are computers that are just designed to do one thing. They're designed to run as fast as possible 24 hours a day,” he told ABC News Live. The computers in a bitcoin mining operation need a lot of power both to run and to operate fans that stop them from overheating. By one estimate from the Cambridge Center for Alternative Finance,, annual global bitcoin mining uses more electricity than the entire nation of The Netherlands. Climate activists question whether the growth of cryptocurrency mining operations could generate more carbon emissions and create a new market for fossil fuels at a time when the world is trying to reduce energy use and cut carbon emissions as fast as possible. Stronghold Digital Mining, which owns the Scrubgrass plant, has found its power source in the form of coal waste, which is abundant at this 221-acre pit just outside of Pittsburgh. Coal waste is a combination of rock, coal, and other materials that were deemed unsuitable for burning and left abandoned since the 1970s when coal mines in the area were closed. There are 220 million cubic yards of waste coal pits like the one in Russellton across 9,000 acres in Pennsylvania, according to testimony from Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection Director Patrick McDonnell. The agency says the pits cause environmental problems like leaching acid into nearby rivers and streams. There are also 40 continual fires in waste coal pits across the state that can release carbon dioxide and other pollutants as they burn, according to a document from a waste coal industry group.
How waste coal Is fueling Bitcoin in Pennsylvania - - There are a lot of cryptocurrencies out there now, but the biggest is still Bitcoin. By design, it uses a lot of energy. Bitcoin’s energy footprint keeps climbing and is currently greater than Finland’s. Why does it need so much energy? In the Bitcoin system, transactions occur without a ‘middle man,’ such as a bank, so transactions have to be verified on a type of ledger. A ‘block’ — a set of data — records bitcoin transactions digitally. Blocks are stacked together in a related chain called a blockchain — that’s the ledger. “Bitcoin has established a procedure that everybody else can agree on when a new block has been added to the blockchain, when a new coin has been created,” said Rob Altenburg, senior director for energy and climate at PennFuture, who has written about it. “That procedure requires a certain ‘proof of work’ that self-regulates the system so we don’t get billions of bitcoins created every second.” The ‘proof of work’ process requires the block to be turned into a number. “But it can’t just be any number. It has to be a number that meets certain parameters,” said Altenburg. Generating that number is almost like picking a winning lottery number. The process has to be done with specialized computers and a person or company now needs thousands of these bitcoin miners to find that unique number to add new blocks in the bitcoin blockchain. Altenburg estimates that the entire Bitcoin network is drawing 422-megawatt hours of energy for each bitcoin “mined,” or created, which is about what the average Pennsylvania household would use in 40 years. “The whole network itself uses a tremendous, tremendous amount of power,” he said. The Allegheny Front’s Kara Holsopple spoke to Altenburg about a piece he wrote on powering Bitcoin from coal waste in Pennsylvania.
Alabama Power to pay $75k fine over coal-burning emissions near Mobile - Alabama Power Company has reached a settlement with the Alabama Department of Environmental Management after tests showed hydrochloric acid emissions at the Barry Steam Electric Generating Plant in Mobile County were higher than legal limits. According to the agreement, Alabama Power will pay a fine of $75,000 and agrees to stop burning coal in the unit that caused the violations by 2028. The company had already announced plans to convert that unit to burn natural gas, but now will be required to do so to comply with the consent order. “In our normal compliance testing of Unit 4 at Plant Barry we had a result slightly above a permit limit, and self-reported it to the Alabama Department of Environmental Management,” Alabama Power said in a statement to AL.com. “The Alabama Department of Environmental Management has proposed a consent order to resolve the issue and we agree to the terms and conditions of the order.” The violation stems from an August 4, 2021 sample taken from the plant’s Unit No. 4, which showed an HCl emission rate of 0.0023 pounds per metric million BTUs (lb/MMBtu), higher than the 0.0020 lb/MMBtu limit established by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency and written in the plant’s operating permit. ADEM said it considered the level to be a “serious violation,” and noted that the plant had also exceeded its HCl limit in 2020, making it a repeat violation.
How a Powerful Company Convinced Georgia to Let It Bury Toxic Waste in Groundwater — ProPublica - For the past several years, Georgia Power has gone to great lengths to skirt the federal rule requiring coal-fired power plants to safely dispose of massive amounts of toxic waste they produced. But previously unreported documents obtained by ProPublica show that the company’s efforts were more extensive than publicly known. Thousands of pages of internal government correspondence and corporate filings show how Georgia Power made an elaborate argument as to why it should be allowed to store waste produced before 2020 in a way that wouldn’t fully protect surrounding communities’ water supplies from contamination — and that would save the company potentially billions of dollars in cleanup costs. In a series of closed-door meetings with state environmental regulators, the powerful utility even went so far as to challenge the definition of the word “infiltration” in relation to how groundwater can seep into disposal sites holding underground coal ash, according to documents obtained through multiple open records requests. Earlier this month, Georgia Power was on its way to getting final approval from the state to leave 48 million tons of coal ash buried in unlined ponds — despite evidence that contaminants were leaking out. Georgia is one of three states that regulate how power companies safely dispose of decades worth of coal ash, rather than leaving such oversight to the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency itself. But last week, the EPA made clear that arguments like the ones Georgia Power has been making violate the intent of the coal ash rule, setting up a potential showdown among the federal agency, state regulators and the deep-pocketed power company. In a statement last week, the EPA said that waste disposal sites “cannot be closed with coal ash in contact with groundwater,” in order to ensure that “communities near these facilities have access to safe water for drinking and recreation.” The EPA’s action follows a joint investigation by Georgia Health News and ProPublica that found Georgia Power has known for decades that the way it disposed of coal ash could be dangerous to neighboring communities. “The coal ash rule was clear from the beginning, but industry had tried to inject uncertainty into plain language,” Georgia’s environmental regulators said it’s too soon to determine exactly how the EPA’s actions will play out in the state. In a letter dated Jan. 11, the EPA asked the Georgia Environmental Protection Division to review whether coal ash permits it has issued to Georgia Power are “consistent” with the federal agency’s guidance. Georgia Environmental Protection Division spokesperson Kevin Chambers, who declined to answer questions about Georgia Power’s lobbying or make any regulators available for an interview, said that the state agency is “awaiting further clarification” from the EPA on how the announcement will impact future permits for Georgia Power’s ash ponds. The agencies are scheduled to meet about the issue later this month.
Striking Warrior Met Coal Miners Challenge Private Equity -Over the last ten months, Brian Kelly has traveled, twice, from his home in Alabama to New York City. Kelly, along with roughly 900 of his co-workers, has been on strike since April 2021, a lengthy ordeal they pin on their employer Warrior Met Coal’s lackluster proposals for a new contract. In an unusual move for a labor strike, he and hundreds of workers came to protest the three hedge funds that own Warrior Met and pressure them to pressure the company’s management. It hasn’t been easy: Last November, the NYPD arrested Kelly and several others in front of the headquarters of BlackRock, the largest shareholder in Warrior Met.A third-generation coal miner, Kelly worked for Warrior Met’s predecessor, Walter Energy, for two decades until it filed for bankruptcy protection in 2015. That’s when a judge allowed the private equity firms that took it over, including Apollo Global Management, Blackstone, and KKR, to reject prior labor contracts with Kelly’s union, the United Mine Workers of America, as the Financial Times previously reported. Miners accepted a pay cut of $6 an hour to keep their jobs. Health-insurance costs increased. “Then they forced us to work seven days a week, up to 16 hours a day,” Kelly recalled. “Overall, we made a sacrifice during that time.” The firms say they saved jobs; instead, miners say private equity prospered from their suffering. Though private equity no longer owns the company, the strike is arguably their legacy. “All told, we estimate that this conglomerate of private equity firms realized about $1.1 billion in savings coming out of the bankruptcy court just over the past five years, that were essentially taken out of the pockets of workers,” said Phil Smith, a spokesperson for the United Mine Workers. A bigger payday was still to come. “Before its initial public offering in 2017, Warrior paid them a $190m dividend from cash on hand,” theFinancial Times reported. “A few months later it paid a $600m dividend funded with cash as well as a $350m debt offering.” Austerity for some can be a windfall for others. As miners forge on with their strike, their plight has attracted high-profile attention, with the role of private equity swimming into clearer focus over time. In November 2021, senators Tammy Baldwin, Bernie Sanders, and Elizabeth Warren sent letters to the Apollo and Blackstone firms that linked their previous ownership of Warrior Met to the ongoing strike. “While workers endured severe cuts to pay and benefits after the Warrior Met takeover, Apollo and the rest of the private equity consortium appear to have made off like bandits,” the senators said in a letter to Apollo. Warren reintroduced her Stop Wall Street Looting Act last year, which would make the firms liable for violations of labor law by the companies they control and would require firms to prioritize worker pay throughout the bankruptcy process. “What happened to Warrior Met is a classic example of what happens when billion-dollar Wall Street firms come to town: They extract as much as they can to line their pockets, all at the expense of workers and communities,” she said in a statement.
EU takes heat for labeling gas and nuclear power plants as “green” energy --The European Commission has been told by a key expert group that planned adjustments to its green rulebook risk raising greenhouse gas emissions and undermining the bloc’s reputation as a bastion for environmentally friendly finance. The Platform on Sustainable Finance, which is one of just two groups assigned the role of providing official feedback to the EU Commission, said that even the best performing gas-fired facilities couldn’t qualify as green or transition assets, according to a report published on Monday.The findings mark the latest body blow to the credibility of Europe’s green rulebook, once touted as an international gold standard in steering capital toward sustainable projects. But the Platform’s findings are unlikely to derail the planned adjustments. At least 20 of the EU’s 27 member states -- representing no less than 65% of the bloc’s population -- would need to unite against the plan for it to fail.Under the EU Commission’s proposal, which is due to be adopted as soon as this week, “new gas plants could be called green and sustainable, even though they never reach below the average greenhouse gas emissions level for the European grid,” said Nathan Fabian, the Platform’s chair. “These would be polluting plants with no guarantee they will ever be green.”Gas and Nuclear as green? Here’s what the Commission proposes:
- Gas projects that replace coal and emit no more than 270 grams of carbon dioxide equivalent per kilowatt-hour can be given a temporary green label; or annual emissions of the activity do not exceed an average of 550 kilograms per kilowatt-hour over 20 years
- Such plants would have to obtain construction permits before the end of 2030, and have plans to switch to renewable or low-carbon gases by the end of 2035
- Similarly, nuclear plants are eligible as long as new plants that are granted construction permits by 2045 meet a set of criteria to avoid significant harm to the environment and water resources
- Funds will be required to enhance disclosures to investors on nuclear and gas holdings under the taxonomy
EU Scientists and Politicians Clash Over Gas and Nuclear as ‘Sustainable’ Investments - The European Union’s scientific and political communities are locked in a battle over whether gas and nuclear can be considered green investments. The latest development in this years-long fight came on Monday, when the European Commission’s scientific expert group, the Platform on Sustainable Finance (PSF), pushed back against including gas and nuclear in the EU taxonomy, an official guide on sustainable investments. The expert group stated that it is “deeply concerned about the environmental impacts that may result.”In December 2021, after months of lobbying, strong pushback from pro-gas and pro-nuclear supporters, and informal alliances between governments, the Commission asked the Platform on Sustainable Finance to provide feedback on a draft amendment that included gas and nuclear in the taxonomy, thereby recognizing them as sustainable.In July 2020, the European Union established the EU Taxonomy Regulation, “a classification system establishing a list of environmentally sustainable economic activities.” It’s a “green investment guidebook,” said Henry Eviston, spokesperson on sustainable finance at WWF European Policy Office. In other words, to call an investment “green,” it needs to be taxonomy compliant.Economic activities comply with the taxonomy if they pass a number of technical screening criteria and meet at least one of six environmental objectives, without harming any of the others: mitigating climate change; adapting to climate change; protecting and sustainably using water and marine resources; transitioning to a circular economy; preventing and controlling pollution; and restoring and protecting biodiversity.The taxonomy separates activities in three categories: “green” activities, which contribute to one of the environmental objectives “in and of themselves;” “transition” activities, which contribute to the energy transition and for which there are no low-carbon alternatives; and “enabling” activities, for instance, manufacturing a device or part that would help make other activities sustainable. The categories, however, seem to be a mere formality because, “once you’re in the taxonomy, you’re classified as sustainable regardless of what category you’re put into,” Eviston said. The process of establishing the criteria was “relatively open, relatively transparent until mid 2020,” he explained. “After that, the taxonomy became a huge fight over not what was scientific but the future of certain sources of energy.”
I-Team: Senators Demand Independent Review Of Seabrook Nuclear Power Plant – – Both Massachusetts senators are demanding an independent review of the Seabrook Nuclear Power plant months after the I-Team reported on cracking concrete at the facility. The plant and the federal oversight agency insist there is a robust monitoring program already in place and the buildings are safe.“The concrete degradation is happening faster than expected and it is absolutely imperative that as a result, we have a review,” Senator Ed Markey said. “We have to make sure it’s safe, we have to make sure that concrete is going to hold… that requires critical questions to be asked and answered.” The owner of the plant, NextEra Energy Resources, and the Nuclear Regulatory Commission, the federal agency that oversees the plant, have been monitoring the degrading concrete for more than a decade and both say the plant is safe. Natalie Hildt Treat is with C-10, a nuclear watchdog group that has been monitoring and has sometimes been at odds with Seabrook for decades. She says Seabrook is the first and only nuclear power plant in the U.S. reporting this type of cracking concrete, which is sometimes called concrete cancer. She tells the I-Team, “Seabrook is the first U.S. reactor known to have the problem.” She visited the site a year ago and says she saw it first hand. “I could see the moisture made it in stark relief, this spider pattern cracking,” Hildt Treat said. “It’s a slow-moving problem but it’s definitely progressing.”“For those of us who live here we have to think about it. We have to think about how would we evacuate. Where we would get our kids,” “Parents of children who live in a 10-mile radius we have to sign permission slips to let the school give them potassium iodide to protect their thyroid if there were an accident. These are the kind of silent burdens that we live with living near a nuclear plant. So that’s why we need to make sure it’s safe,” Hildt Treat said. NextEra, the owner of Seabrook again declined the I-Team’s request for an interview and a plant visit. In a statement, NextEra said, “We have demonstrated, and the NRC has confirmed repeatedly, that Seabrook’s structures are robust, safe and fully capable of performing their design functions.” Senator Markey says that’s not enough and wants a thorough review to ensure residents are safe. “They have a right to answers, they have a right to know that in fact the concrete is going to hold and that there is no danger to them or to their families,” Markey said.
Bills that would lift state restrictions on nuclear power plant construction move toward passage in both chambers - Two identical bills that would lift restrictions on nuclear power plant construction in West Virginia moved closer to passage in the state Legislature Monday. The full Senate is slated to vote on Senate Bill 4 Tuesday without discussion after it advanced to a third reading Monday, while House Bill 2882 was advanced to the full House of Delegates by the Government Organization Committee. Both bills would repeal the state’s conditional ban on nuclear power plant construction, a move that some other states have made amid the nation’s energy transition. State code holds that the use of nuclear fuel and power “poses an undue hazard to the health, safety and welfare” of West Virginians and bans nuclear facilities unless the proponent of a facility can prove that “a functional and effective national facility, which safely, successfully and permanently disposes of radioactive wastes, has been developed.” State code requires that construction of any nuclear facility must be economically feasible for ratepayers and comply with environmental laws. The code also mandates that the Public Service Commission approve construction or initiation of any nuclear power plant, nuclear factory or nuclear electric power generating plant. West Virginia was one of 13 states that had restrictions on the construction of new nuclear power facilities as of August, according to the National Conference of State Legislatures. Kentucky, Montana and Wisconsin have ended restrictions on nuclear construction in recent years, with other states considering following suit. The Government Organization Committee approved the bill despite opposition from two Monongalia County Democrats. Delegate Barbara Evans Fleischauer, D-Monongalia, expressed fear of a nuclear accident and lingering nuclear waste on plant sites, recalling nuclear accidents like the partial reactor meltdown at Three Mile Island in 1979 and a steam explosion and ¦res at the Chernobyl nuclear plant in Ukraine in 1986 that resulted in at least 30 deaths and radiation injuries to more than a hundred others from the blast and acute radiation syndrome. “I don’t see why we would do this without studying it in depth,” Fleischauer said, noting that the restrictions in place are not a full ban on nuclear power plant construction. Delegate Evan Hansen, D-Monongalia, approved of nuclear as an option for repurposing shuttered coal plants to keep energy jobs in longtime coal communities but said the Legislature should do more to protect electric ratepayers from any rate hikes sustained in a transition to nuclear energy.
Several House Bill 6 supporters still help pick Public Utilities Commission of Ohio members - cleveland.com—A year and a half after the House Bill 6 scandal broke, more than a third of the council tasked with picking nominees to the Public Utilities Commission of Ohio consists of men who backed, lobbied for, or even co-sponsored the infamous energy law.That includes the chair of the Public Utilities Commission Nominating Council: Michael Koren, who helped FirstEnergy Corp. lobby for the passage of HB6 in 2019. It also includes recently appointed David Wondolowski of the Cleveland Building and Trades Council, who was a supporter of HB6 himself and whose union vocally supported the legislation.
Opinion: How can the Public Utilities Commission of Ohio be reformed - I wasn’t surprised to read in The Dispatch how the Public Utilities Commission stands between Ohioans’ pocketbooks and utilities like Akron-based FirstEnergy. As long as I can remember, citizens and consumer protection groups have raised serious concerns about the utilities’ influence on PUCO and other state institutions, but our state government system failed to heed the warnings as illustrated by the FirstEnergy fiasco. In the meantime, this influence resulted in channeling billions of dollars of the people’s hard-earned money to utilities without justification.The utilities' influence on PUCO is magnified by the lack of a thorough vetting process for commissioner candidates as illustrated by the appointment of Sam Randazzo as PUCO chair, who was closely connected to FirstEnergy.Second, the kind of commissioners who are usually selected to serve have close relationships with utilities or were paid by utilities at some point in their careers.Finally, the way the commissioners are nominated makes it difficult to name technically capable candidates without ties to the utilities or to exclude candidates who may have conflicts of interest as a PUCO commissionersI experienced this flawed process when I applied for a vacant position immediately after the exposure of the FirstEnergy scandal.I felt that PUCO needed impartial commissioners who can restore the people’s confidence.In the interview, I explained my background as a professional engineer and state agency administrator, and told the committee that I will not seek or accept an endorsement for my nomination from any utility.I emphasized that if appointed, I will serve the interests of the people of Ohio and only the people of Ohio. Of course, I was not nominated.Reforming the PUCO should start by changing the way the commissioners are appointed. There are calls to reform the process by allowing the people of Ohio to elect the commissioners. However, the election process may increase the utilities’ influence on the commissioners by channeling campaign money to their favorite candidates. Also, the public may find it hard to select the right candidates without spending a considerable amount of time investigating their background.Reconstituting the nominating committee to fairly represent the public interest and establishing a rigorous vetting procedure may be a better option.
Yet more evidence from FirstEnergy that Ohio’s utility regulation is broken: editorial - cleveland.com In the latest development in Ohio’s utility regulation mess, an audit commissioned by the Public Utilities Commission of Ohio has found that even though FirstEnergy Corp. collected roughly $500 million from Ohio electricity customers to modernize the utility’s power-line grid, it couldn’t show it used any of the money for that purpose. Auditors found no evidence that ratepayer money the Akron company collected (at least $168 million a year from 2017 until 2019) led FirstEnergy – which owns the Illuminating, Ohio Edison and Toledo Edison companies – to spend more on modernizing its grid, cleveland.com’s Jeremy Pelzer reported. In fact, the “distribution modernization rider” was proposed by the PUCO’s staff itself, the audit found -- not so much to modernize FirstEnergy’s electricity grid but rather to bolster FirstEnergy’s finances so it might borrow money for modernization. The audit also could not determine whether any of the modernization money was or wasn’t spent to lobby for passage of House Bill 6, the scandal-scarred nuclear bailout legislation that spawned federal indictments of five Statehouse figures, including then-House Speaker Larry Householder, who is presumed innocent until and if proven otherwise.Federal prosecutors have alleged that FirstEnergy and an affiliate secretly gave tens of millions of dollars to a nonprofit Householder controlled, cleveland.com’s John Caniglia has reported.Last summer, FirstEnergy signed a deferred prosecution agreement with federal prosecutors, agreeing to pay a $230 million fine and cooperate with the investigation.The company at that time “acknowledged that it paid $4.3 million” to a public official whose description matches former PUCO chair Sam Randazzo “to further FirstEnergy Corp.’s interests related to passage of nuclear legislation and other company priorities,” the Justice Department said. Randazzo hasn’t been charged with any wrongdoing. In their recent PUCO-commissioned grid-modernization audit, Daymark Energy Advisors also found that, while the fee was in effect, the three FirstEnergy electric distribution companies in Ohio boosted the size of the dividends they paid FirstEnergy, their parent. The auditors said there was no documented evidence to prove or disprove a connection between the fees and the dividend boosts. The no-strings-attached grid modernization fee proved too much even for the usually complaisant Ohio Supreme Court, which in a 4-3 ruling issued in June 2019 killed the modernization fee in a majority opinion written by Justice Michael Donnelly. Unquestionably, if properly funded and engineered, grid modernization should be on Ohio’s agenda. The August 2003 Northeast blackout that left 45 million Americans and 10 million Canadians without electricity originated in FirstEnergy’s Ohio territory, a U.S.-Canadian study found: A FirstEnergy line in Walton Hills came in contact with trees, and FirstEnergy’s computers failed to adequately react.
How a $60 million bribery scandal helped Ohio pass the ‘worst energy policy in the country’ – On a warm morning in July of 2020, FBI agents and local sheriff’s deputies converged on a farmhouse just outside the tiny town of Glenford in central Ohio. They led away a blue-eyed man wearing a gray Carhartt T-shirt and baggy jeans. His name was Larry Householder, insurance man, gentleman farmer, and the powerful leader of a Republican supermajority in the Ohio House of Representatives. Federal prosecutors brought Householder before a judge and laid out their findings. Their investigation suggested the politician had orchestrated a grand conspiracy in which three electric utilities — FirstEnergy, its former subsidiary Energy Harbor, and American Electric Power — gave Householder a $60 million slush fund to help get like-minded politicians into the Ohio legislature. In exchange, Householder helped steer billions of dollars in subsidies their way. Over the course of three years, Householder had taken money from energy companies and transformed it into power. (Most of it, anyway. He kept some for himself, including $100,000 to pay for his house in Florida, according to an indictment filed by the U.S. Department of Justice.) The money built an army of state representatives that elevated him to speaker of the statehouse and supported his legislative agenda. It also paved the way for the passage of a law in 2019, House Bill 6, “widely recognized as the worst energy policy in the country,” according to Leah Stokes, an environmental political scientist at the University of California, Santa Barbara. House Bill 6 nearly halved the renewable power that utilities were required to buy, eliminated energy efficiency laws, handed a billion dollars to the state’s two nuclear power plants, and spent even more money to keep coal plants burning. A recent report from Gabel Associates, an energy consulting firm, suggests the law will cost Ohioans $2 billion in excess utility bills and $7 billion in health care costs stemming from pollution over nine years. When both opponents and backers of House Bill 6 are asked about this scandal, they tend to talk about nuclear power. To opponents, it was a “nuclear bailout.” To backers, it was a sort of state-level “Clean Air Act,” meant to keep Ohio’s two nuclear plants from closing, thereby preserving the state’s largest source of zero-emissions energy. But nuclear power was mostly a red herring that utilities used to distract from the real thrust of the law: keeping obsolete coal plants and coal mines profitable.“House Bill 6 was really a coal bailout wrapped in a clean energy and nuclear argument,” said Stokes, who wrote about the episode in her book, Short Circuiting Energy Policy.
Feds expect Householder trial to take six weeks; could occur this fall - Federal prosecutors indicated Wednesday they expect the public corruption trial of former House Speaker Larry Householder will take about six weeks and could occur sometime this coming fall.Attorneys representing Householder and an alleged co-conspirator generally agreed a trial would take six weeks to leave time for jury selection and the parties to make their cases.U.S. District Judge Timothy Black ordered the attorneys to meet privately to find a six-week block to set aside for the trial.Meanwhile, pre-trial motions are due at the end of the month, which can shed light on what evidence will come up, who may be called to testify, and other nuggets in what prosecutors have described as the largest political corruption case in state history.Householder, a Perry County Republican, is accused of secretly operating a purportedly independent nonprofit that channeled about $60 million from FirstEnergy Corp. Prosecutors say those funds were used for Householder’s personal enrichment; to elect a slate of GOP representative who would anoint him Speaker; and to engineer a political machine that engineered passage of a sweeping bailout, House Bill 6, worth an estimated $1.3 billion to FirstEnergy.Alongside Householder, lobbyist and former state Republican Party chairman Matt Borges have pleaded not guilty and await trial.Lobbyist Juan Cespedes and GOP political operative Jeff Longstreth pleaded guilty in the Fall of 2020. Lobbyist Neil Clark pleaded not guilty but died by suicide in early 2021. FirstEnergy signed a deferred prosecution agreement (DPA) last summer — agreeing to a lengthy set of facts, paying a $230 million fine, and cooperating with the U.S. Department of Justice in exchange for the potential dismissal of one count of honest services wire fraud. The charge entails engaging in a scheme to “defraud the public of its right to the honest services of a public official through bribery or kickbacks.” FirstEnergy admitted to making the payments and using the nonprofit, a 501(c)(4), to “conceal payments for the benefit of public officials and in return for official action.” It admitted to making the payments to ensure passage of HB 6, which provided electric customer-funded bailouts to two nuclear plants owned by the company’s then subsidiary. Another piece of the bill, known as “decoupling,” effectively forced ratepayers to guarantee FirstEnergy revenues against the risk of turbulence in energy markets.The company also implicated Sam Randazzo, who Gov. Mike DeWine appointed in 2019 to serve as the state’s top utility regulator. FirstEnergy claimed it paid Randazzo $4.3 million shortly before he accepted the position in return for regulatory and legislative favors that saved the company millions. Randazzo has not been charged with a crime and has maintained his innocence. Text messages obtained by the Ohio Capital Journal show Randazzo also lobbied lawmakers to slip a provision into the state budget that proved lucrative for the company as well.
Fitch Affirms Ascent Resources Utica Holdings' Long-Term IDR at 'B'; Outlook Stable - Fitch Ratings has affirmed Ascent Resources Utica Holdings, LLC's (Ascent) Issuer Default Rating (IDR) at 'B'. Fitch has also affirmed the first lien credit facility at 'BB'/'RR1', the second lien term loan at 'BB-'/'RR2' and the senior unsecured notes at 'B'/'RR4'. The Rating Outlook is Stable. Ascent's rating reflects expectations of positive FCF over the rating horizon, debt reduction, moderate leverage, above-average production scale and adequate hedge book. These factors are offset by a material maturity wall from 2024 to 2029 and relatively high firm transportation costs, which results in netbacks slightly lower than the median of its peers. Fitch believes Ascent is able to access debt capital markets and generate FCF to reduce refinancing risk, although acknowledges that natural gas prices are volatile and debt capital markets can be challenging at times. A positive rating action could occur if there are material actions taken to address the upcoming maturity wall.
Marcellus and Utica shales in the US expected to witness steady production growth until 2025 - As natural gas appraisal and development processes in the US’s Marcellus and Utica shales were largely unaffected by COVID-19, natural gas production at these sites is expected to rise at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 5.1% to reach a combined 38.3 billion cubic feet per day by 2025, according to GlobalData, a leading data and analytics company.Svetlana Doh, Oil & Gas Analyst at GlobalData, comments: “Not only did natural gas appraisal and development evade some of the more devastating impacts COVD-19 had on other areas of the oil and gas industry, but natural gas production in these shales exceeded pre-pandemic levels in 2021, reaching 35 bcfd on an annual basis. In fact, Marcellus and Utica accounted for nearly one-third of the total natural gas production in the US. ”According to GlobalData’s latest report, ‘Marcellus and Utica Shales in the US, 2021 – Oil and Gas Shale Market Analysis and Outlook to 2025’, the Marcellus and Utica shale plays saw an increase in natural gas production in Q4 2020 and January 2021 before leveling out during Q1 and Q2, 2021. In July 2021, there was a slight increase to almost 29 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd).Doh continued: “In 2020, with the crash in oil prices, operators saw massive reductions in capital expenditures and headcounts. The US shale industry also witnessed record numbers of bankruptcies and debt restructurings. Operators continue to recover from this downturn. As a result, deal activity in the Marcellus and Utica shales is still below pre-pandemic levels.”The total merger and acquisition (M&A) deal value in these shales is up just 1% over 2020, and down approximately 5% from 2019 through three quarters.Doh added: “M&A activity in other crude oil plays in the US was mainly related to the consolidation tactic of bigger oil and gas companies holding assets across multiple plays. However, Appalachia is the biggest natural gas play in the US, and deals occur mainly for medium-to-small sized operators within a handful of gas plays in the country, resulting in a smaller total deal value.”Crude oil production in the Marcellus shale is expected to reach pre-pandemic levels in 2022 and increase further to 2025, while crude oil production in the Utica shale is unlikely to recover by 2025.
Living near or downwind of unconventional oil and gas development linked with increased risk of early death - Elderly people living near or downwind of unconventional oil and gas development (UOGD)—which involves extraction methods including directional (non-vertical) drilling and hydraulic fracturing, or fracking—are at higher risk of early death compared with elderly individuals who don't live near such operations, according to a large new study from Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health. The results suggest that airborne contaminants emitted by UOGD and transported downwind are contributing to increased mortality, the researchers wrote. The study will be published on January 27, 2022 inNature Energy. Our study is the first to link mortality to UOGD-related air pollutant exposures," "There is an urgent need to understand the causal link between living near or downwind of UOGD and adverse health effects." Roughly 17.6 million U.S. residents currently live within one kilometer of at least one active well. Compared with conventional oil and gas drilling, UOGD generally involves longer construction periods and larger well pads (the area occupied by equipment or facilities), and requires larger volumes of water, proppants (sand or other materials used to keep hydraulic fractures open), and chemicals during the fracking process. Prior studies have found connections between UOGD activities and increased human exposure to harmful substances in both air and water, as well as connections between UOGD exposure and adverse prenatal, respiratory, cardiovascular, and carcinogenic health outcomes. But little was known about whether exposure to UOGD was associated with mortality risk in the elderly, or about exactly how exposure to UOGD-related activities may be contributing to such risk. To learn more, the researchers studied a cohort of more than 15 million Medicare beneficiaries—people ages 65 and older—living in all major U.S. UOGD exploration regions from 2001 to 2015. They also gathered data from the records of more than 2.5 million oil and gas wells. For each Medicare beneficiary's ZIP code and year in the cohort, the researchers used two different statistical approaches to calculate what the exposure to pollutants would be from living either close to UOGD operations, downwind of them, or both, while adjusting for socioeconomic, environmental, and demographic factors. The closer to UOGD wells people lived, the greater their risk of premature mortality, the study found. Those who lived closest to wells had a statistically significant elevated mortality risk (2.5% higher) compared with those who didn't live close to wells. The study also found that people who lived near UOGD wells as well as downwind of them were at higher risk of premature death than those living upwind, when both groups were compared with people who were unexposed. "Our findings suggest the importance of considering the potential health dangers of situating UOGD near or upwind of people's homes,"
For the First Time, a Harvard Study Links Air Pollution From Fracking to Early Deaths Among Nearby Residents - Western Pennsylvania residents and doctors have been going public for several years with their concerns that fracking for fossil gas has sickened people and may be causing rare cancers in children. Today, a new study out of Harvard links fracking with early deaths of senior citizens. Published in the peer reviewed scientific journal Nature Energy, the team of researchers from the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health blames a mix of airborne contaminants associated with what is known as unconventional oil and gas development. That is when companies use horizontal drilling and liquids under pressure to fracture underground rock to release the fossil fuels through a process known as hydraulic fracturing, or fracking. The closer people 65 and older lived to wells, the greater their risk of premature mortality, the study found. Those senior citizens who lived closest to wells had an early death risk 2.5 percent higher than people who did not live close to the wells, the researchers found. The study also found that seniors who lived downwind of wells were at a similar higher risk of premature death than those living upwind, when compared with people who were unexposed. In their paper, researchers did not estimate the total number of premature deaths nor the length of time lives were shortened. Still, the authors said it’s the first study to link mortality among those 65 and older with air pollution from fracking wells. “Our findings suggest the importance of considering the potential health dangers of situating (unconventional oil and gas development) near or upwind of people’s homes,” said Longxiang Li, a postdoctoral fellow in the school’s Department of Environmental Health and lead author of the study. The researchers wrote that a variety of activities can cause air pollution around oil and gas wells resulting in increased exposure to volatile organic compounds, nitrogen oxides and naturally occurring radiation. Those activities can include pad construction, well drilling, hydraulic fracturing and fossil fuel production. Diesel trucks and equipment used to build the drilling pads and to force the fracking fluids deep into the ground also emit pollutants. Pollutants can be released directly from wellheads and from the burning of unwanted fossil fuels, a process known as flaring. The Environmental Protection Agency says the industry’s release of volatile organic compounds is a major contributor to the formation of ground-level ozone, or smog, which is linked to aggravated asthma, increased emergency room visits and hospital admissions, and premature death.
People Over Pipelines: Canvassing Communities on the Falcon Ethane Pipeline -During November I joined members of the Beaver County Marcellus Awareness Community (BCMAC) in Allegheny and Beaver counties in Southwestern Pennsylvania to canvass residents living near the Falcon Ethane Pipeline. The Falcon Pipeline is a 98-mile pipeline network through Pennsylvania, Ohio, and West Virginia that, if brought online, will transport ethane to the Shell Ethane Cracker in Monaca, Pennsylvania to be made into plastic. While the pipeline is fully constructed, residents and the concerned public just learned in November via a Facebook post that the pipeline is now filled with ethane. The pipeline has been under investigation since 2019 by federal and state agencies, and a coalition of groups under the People Over Petro Coalition have been working to increase transparency and have safety concerns addressed by regulators before the pipeline comes online. The only indication of the pipeline were innocuous orange markers traveling behind houses and visible off the side of the road. The majority of residents we spoke to had no idea they were living so close to an ethane pipeline. Many of the people living just across the street from the pipeline had just moved in within the past few months. Canvassing the houses felt like shattering the perfect lives these families were starting to build. People we spoke to told us this was the cleanest air they had ever breathed despite being able to see a fracking flare from the top of the street. The house they had just moved into was a dream house they had saved years for. One person we spoke to had no idea about the Falcon Pipeline but grew visibly agitated when we told him it was an ethane pipeline, like the Revolution pipeline in Beaver County less than 15 miles away that explodedin early morning in 2018. The pipeline had been in service for just one week before exploding – destroying a building, killing animals, forcing dozens of residents to evacuate, and leaving 1,500 without power. Despite this history of pipeline incidents in the area, none of the residents we spoke to remembered receiving safety information on the pipeline from Shell Pennsylvania Chemicals. Residents deserve to know the safety risks and the implications of living near an ethane pipeline that crosses through backyards and underneath residential roads. They also deserve to know what safety measures have been put in place by the corporation and local EMS and how to evacuate in the event of an emergency. If you live near the Falcon pipeline and would like to get involved with efforts to get more transparency and safety information on the pipeline please email anaïs at apeterson@earthworksaction.org. If you are a local resident and would like to speak to an attorney regarding issues causes by pipeline construction you can contact the attorney at Mountain Watershed Association at: (724) 455-4200 ext. 7 or melissa@mtwatershed.com
Despite moratorium, 2 million gallons of conventional oil and gas waste spread on Pa. roads since 2018 - Conventional oil and gas producers have spread millions of gallons of drilling waste on Pennsylvania roads in the last few years, despite a 2018 moratorium on the practice. For years, companies have spread oil and gas waste on roads to suppress dust and melt ice. But in 2016, the state blocked the practice for waste from Marcellus shale wells. In 2018, it also prohibited the spreading of waste from conventional oil and gas wells, which typically tap shallower rock formations. The decision resulted in a 90 percent drop on the amount of conventional waste, or brine, spread on roads, said Karen Feridun of the non-profit Better Path Coalition, which produced a report on the topic. Still, Feridun says, companies have disposed of over 2 million gallons of conventional drilling waste on Pennsylvania roads since 2018. “What really are the distinctions between conventional and unconventional (waste)?” Feridun said. “If you are going to take that step of banning unconventional, why not both?” Both conventional and unconventional drilling waste contain salts, metals, and naturally-occurring radioactive materials. Most conventional waste is disposed of at treatment facilities or injection disposal wells. But companies are still disposing of some of their waste through road spreading.They are using a loophole in state law called “coproduct determination,” which allows for companies to replace a commercially-available product with industrial waste as long as using that waste does not “present a greater threat of harm to human health and the environment” than the product it’s replacing. As part of this process, companies are required to evaluate “total levels of hazardous or toxic constituents” in their waste. Earlier this year, the DEP asked 17 companies that had reported road spreading for additional information on these activities. Their responses showed the companies had tested their waste for salts and other minerals. But Feridun, who reviewed these submissions to the DEP obtained through Right-to-Know requests, says the companies aren’t testing the waste for radioactivity and other contaminants. “There are just all sorts of substances and chemicals that are in the waste that are extremely dangerous and are going to have long lasting effects,” Feridun said. The DEP says it’s reviewing the responses and has asked the companies for more information. Conventional drilling companies argue road spreading in Pennsylvania is one of the few remaining disposal methods for small companies. “The alternatives to produced water disposal in Pennsylvania continue to shrink,” said Burt Waite, an independent geologist and member of the DEP’s Pennsylvania Grade Crude Development Advisory Council, at a council hearing Thursday. “At the same time, we’re receiving calls from townships crying for the (waste)water, as it is effective to controlling dust and stabilizing roads.”
We Found The Names of Radioactive Waste Locations That Government Kept Secret - Public Herald -- For about six years, the Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection (DEP) has obscured the radioactive hazards of oil and gas operations. Ever since the 2016 release of its study on oil and gas TENORM — technologically enhanced naturally occurring radioactive material — the DEP has kept the names and locations of where radioactive waste was detected a secret and told the general public there was little to worry about. The question is, does the radium in the raw data tell a different story? When the Department chose not to release the names of the 144 locations tested in the 2016 study, it blocked the public’s ability to make place-based, local decisions about potential threats from TENORM. Now, for the first time, all 144 names and locations are being released by the team at Public Herald. We’ve mapped the landfills, centralized waste treatment facilities, publicly owned treatment works, zero-liquid discharge facilities, brine-treated roads, well pads and their test results for radium from the DEP’s study.For Public Herald’s analysis, we focus on radium (Ra-226 & Ra-228) because it is federally regulated for its health impacts, highly soluble in water and a lead indicator of TENORM contamination. The DEP’s TENORM analysis tested the following elements: U-235, U-238, Ra-226, Ra-228, Th-232, Ac-228, Pb-212, Bi-212, and K-40.Using the TENORM study interactive map, the public can finally see the locations Pennsylvania officials withheld. Knowing the location of specific radium results from the DEP’s TENORM study is critical to evaluating the health impacts of oil and gas radioactivity in studies like the one currently underway by the University of Pittsburgh Medical Center (UPMC). View Map in Separate Window » Public Herald’s Pennsylvania TENORM map provides the premier interface with which to visually review the radium data from the DEP’s TENORM study. Our team organized all 144 locations tested into six categories, each represented by a unique icon on the map.When hovered over, icons on the map (corresponding to the legend) will provide the name of that facility and a sample of that specific facility’s radium data.The layers button in the top left of the map window allows the user to add an overlay of Pennsylvania’s watersheds, which are shared with neighboring states and communities downstream.
500 gallons of oil spill at Bethlehem terminal — A state crew was sent to clean up a 500-gallon oil spill Tuesday at the Citgo on River Road, officials said. A technical malfunction caused the leak from a containment area at the gas station, state officials said. The containment area's vapor recovery system, which removes vapors from crude oil, malfunctioned, causing the spill. The Department of Environmental Conservation said vapor recovery was isolated and that a vac truck was on scene cleaning up the spill. Snow and gravel contaminated by the oil will also be removed, the DEC said. The cleanup and area will be monitored by the DEC for threats to public health and the environment, but there were no detected impacts as of Tuesday evening. Fire departments from Selkirk, Elsmere and Delmar joined the DEC and the Bethlehem Police Department.
State expects $90 million in additional Impact Fee funds - The cold weather Bradford County has been experiencing has highlighted to consumers the rising price of heating oil and natural gas, but they will also see a silver lining to that price increase, Pennsylvania municipalities are likely to see an increase in Impact Fee payments.Originally signed into law in 2012, the impact fee bill known as Act 13 established a system of payment from natural gas producers to the state and local governments affected by drilling and exploration. Most major natural gas producing states use a traditional severance tax, not the Impact Fee system. The amount paid is determined by the amount of active wells in a given area and is influenced by the price of natural gas on the national market. The rise of natural gas prices fro February to October of 2021 is expected to increase the amount disbursed by $10,000 per horizontal well, totaling close to $90 million in additional funds throughout the state, according to state officials.
Chesapeake Builds Natural Gas-Rich Marcellus Portfolio with Chief, Tug Hill Purchase - Chesapeake Energy Corp. on Tuesday snapped up a batch of natural gas-rich Marcellus Shale assets with a $2 billion-plus takeover of Chief E&D Holdings LP and affiliates of Tug Hill Inc. According to the Oklahoma City-based independent, pro forma natural production capacity could increase by up to 200 MMcf/d. The transaction, set for completion by the end of March, also may expand undeveloped locations by around 25% and expand the drilling inventory by more than 15 years at current activity levels. Chesapeake agreed to pay a total of $2 billion cash and trade 9.44 million shares. The company was trading above $61.00/share early Tuesday. To help pay for the transaction, the Powder River Basin (PRB) portfolio in Wyoming is being sold to Continental Resources Inc. for $450 million. These “transformative transactions…meet the high bar set by our acquisition nonnegotiables and clarify our portfolio,” CEO Nick Dell’Osso said. “We know the importance of scale, and the Chief and Tug Hill assets fit like a glove with our existing position in the Northeast Marcellus Shale. Once the transactions are completed, Chesapeake would be a three-basin producer, with assets in the Eagle Ford, Haynesville and Marcellus shales. Under the terms of the agreements, unanimously approved by all the principals, Chesapeake is acquiring 113,000 net acres that are more than 90% held by production. Assuming the deal closes by April 1, the assets are projected to produce 835 MMcf/d net for nine months in 2022. The company’s Powder River Basin assets include 172,000 net acres and 350 operated wells in southeastern Wyoming. In the final three months of 2021, volumes averaged around 19,000 boe/d, 58% weighted to oil and liquids. After the transactions are completed, Chesapeake this year plans to add another two rigs on the acquired Marcellus properties. That would result in up to 11 gas-focused and up to three oil-focused rigs working the Marcellus. For Continental, the transaction expands its PRB inventory. The fellow Oklahoma City-based independent last November also entered the Permian Basin.
Old-school shale: The growth of Diversified Energy Co. in southwestern Pennsylvania - Diversified Energy Co. may not drill wells like EQT Corp. and CNX Resources Corp., but the Birmingham, Alabama-based company, is now the largest conventional shale producer in Appalachia, pumping oil and gas out of a myriad of wells dotting the landscape, taking on the type of well that doesn't shine on Wall Street. It has grown to become the fifth-largest shale gas driller in southwestern Pennsylvania, with 327 active local wells. When Diversified Energy first made its mark in the Appalachian basin in 2017, it was by buying hundreds and even thousands of the type of old-school, conventional wells that had long since been surpassed with investment and attention by the deeper, harder-to-get-to and more expensive horizontal wells that tapped into the Marcellus and Utica shales.The company, which was founded by West Virginia native Rusty Hutson, had a contrarian view of success in the Appalachian shale industry. Billions of dollars had by this time flowed to the region to search for and then drill the deep wells in Pennsylvania, West Virginia and Ohio. Fortunes had been made and, in some cases, crushed. But the oil and gas industry is a longstanding business in Appalachia, and Hutson believed that assembling a stable of old-school wells would create a fast-growing business even if it isn't as high-flying as unconventional shale.The strategy has worked. Diversified went from one employee and $400,000 in enterprise value with almost no production to 800,000 acres, 3 million barrels of oil equivalent and $75 million in enterprise value by the time it went public on the London Stock Exchange in 2017. It had, by that time, picked up some conventional oil and gas wells being sold off by Seneca Resources and Eclipse Resources.In the five years since, Diversified has made $2 billion in acquisitions with some of the country's biggest names, picking up more mostly conventional oil and gas wells from CNX, EQT, Dominion Energy, EdgeMarc Energy and Titan Energy, among others.Its revenue has grown from $41.8 million in 2017 to $408.7 million in 2020, and it now has 7.3 million acres under leasehold in Appalachia, many of them the conventional wells that have long since stopped the prolific gush of oil and/or gas but provide a steady flow that, when gathered all together, produce at scale. At the same time, Diversified has also picked up an increasing number of unconventional wells that fit the same profile: Wells from earlier days of shale development over the past decade that companies like Atlas, Titan and CNX drilled and connected to pipelines but that don't have the high production anymore that makes it worthwhile to keep in inventory.
CNX Resources Raising Capex, Sees Costs Tick Upward in Appalachia on Inflationary Pressures - A jump in forecasted natural gas production, along with inflationary pressures, will find CNX Resources Corp. spending more this year to execute a long-term plan that remains on track after the company turned in a solid 2021. Management said operating efficiencies have improved markedly over the last two years across its assets in the Appalachian Basin. As a result, the company is moving forward with a seven-year plan outlined in 2020 with a new base production level of 590 Bcfe instead of the previous 560 Bcfe. “The one rig, one fracture crew that we used to use to run a maintenance and production plan now grows production without adding any new crews,” said CFO Donald Rush during a call on Thursday to discuss year-end results with financial analysts. “…Our old plan was based in a different world from low gas prices to different efficiencies.” The one rig program is expected to give the company low, single-digit production growth. CNX is guiding for production of 575-605 Bcfe this year and capital expenditures (capex) of $470-500 million. Capex guidance was above the $470 million range the company forecasted for 2021. COO Chad Griffith said capex is expected to come in higher because of inflation, as well as plans for water and other midstream infrastructure to support operations. CNX produced 158.2 Bcfe in the fourth quarter, up from 146.5 Bcfe in the year-ago period. Most of its activity occurred in Southwest Pennsylvania during the period. For the full year, the company reported production of 590.2 Bcfe, up from 511 Bcfe in 2020. The average price of natural gas, natural gas liquids and oil, including cash settlements, was $2.83/Mcfe during the fourth quarter, up from $2.49 in the year-ago period. CNX reported fourth quarter net income of $630.3 million ($3.02/share), compared with $195.8 million (88 cents) in the year-ago period. The company reported a 2021 net loss of $498.6 million (minus $2.31), compared with a 2020 net loss of $428.7 million (minus $2.43). The independent was lifted by higher commodity prices across the board, reporting its eighth consecutive quarter of free cash flow (FCF) at $158 million. CNX used 80% of its cash flow to buy back shares, with the remainder used for paying down debt. CNX took a big loss on its hedge book during 3Q2021 that weighed down full-year results, but management said Thursday it has no plans to change its approach. The company currently has about 86% of its 2022 production hedged, the bulk of which is locked in at average prices of $2.94/MMBtu.
ESG-Critical Shale CEO Feels An Ethical Duty To Speak Out - Nick Deluliis, CEO of CNX Resources, is all over Twitter and other social media platforms, advocating for his company and his industry. I asked him why he has chosen to become such a vocal advocate, given that it will inevitably make him a target to so many who oppose fossil fuels in any form. “I feel there’s an ethical duty, a leadership responsibility, there’s a social purpose of a business to accurately, rationally advocate for what you do on behalf of society and why what you do is not in the past, it’s not a bridge that’s going to go away; it’s the present and it’s the future. Particularly when mistruths are used to vilify what you do.” he answered. “When you think about what’s behind that, the domestic energy industry doesn’t produce a widget of methane: What it does is provide quality of life. “That’s what we do as an industry. It’s not that complicated.” “We got really good in the ‘70s and ‘80s at liberating methane from coal seams,” Deluliis told me when we talked recently, “to the point where towards the end of the ‘80s we said what if instead of venting the methane into the atmosphere or flaring it, why not collect it and process it? That’s really the genesis of how we got into the natural gas business.” Today, it is one of the largest natural gas producers in the Marcellus/Utica region, with the bulk of its assets still centered in Western Pennsylvania, southwest Virginia and West Virginia. Deluliis has gained a reputation over the last year for his willingness to be an outspoken advocate for his company and industry, one who hasn’t been shy about being critical of the ESG investor movement that has become so successful in influencing the management philosophies at many energy companies in recent years. I noted that the strategy Deluliis deploys at CNX seems pretty consistent with the Governance-related objectives advocated by these ESG investors, but he disagreed. On ESG investors and what they’ve been able to achieve, Deluliis is not entirely negative. But he sees the results of the influence they wield not just in energy, but across society as a whole, in what he calls a breakdown between “the good, the bad and the ugly.” “On the good side of this - and we’ve been a proof point for it - if you look at any industry that is in manufacturing or energy, anything that requires the interaction of humans with some process or some activity, the safest, the most compliant, they’re the most efficient. The most efficient – in the case of widgets or methane molecules or whatever it is – they’re going to be the most profitable. I am all on board with this,” he told me. “The bad side is when you start getting these different constituent groups to try to put some sort of quick and easy filter on how to come up with either an ESG fund, or to screen companies with a filter for the ESG metrics. This is tremendously hard work. You have to intimately understand the industry. The data are not going to lend themselves to a quick and easy screening on an Excel spreadsheet from an office in California or Manhattan.
US Court Vacates Federal Permit for Mountain Valley Natgas Pipeline - The U.S. Court of Appeals for the 4th Circuit on Jan. 25 invalidated federal approvals for Equitrans Midstream Corp.’s $6.2 billion Mountain Valley natural gas pipeline under construction from West Virginia to Virginia. The court decision was the latest setback for the pipeline, which was already years behind schedule and billions over budget. When Mountain Valley construction started in February 2018, Equitrans Midstream estimated the 303-mile (488-km), 2 Bcf/d project would cost about $3.5 billion and enter service by late 2018. Specifically, the court vacated the record of decisions of the U.S. Forest Service and the Bureau of Land Management allowing the pipe to cross about 3.5-miles (5.6-km) through the Jefferson National Forest, and sent the case back to the agencies. In an email, Equitrans said, “We are thoroughly reviewing the Court’s decision regarding [Mountain Valley’s] crossing permit for the Jefferson National Forest and will be expeditiously evaluating the project’s next steps and timing considerations.” In the past, Equitrans has said it expected the project to enter service during the summer of 2022. Mountain Valley is one of several U.S. pipelines delayed by regulatory and legal fights with environmental and local groups that found problems with federal permits issued during President Donald Trump's administration. When Mountain Valley construction started in February 2018, Equitrans estimated the 303-mile (488-km), 2 Bcf/d project would cost about $3.5 billion and enter service by late 2018. “Today’s decision makes it highly unlikely that this dirty, dangerous, and unnecessary fracked gas pipeline will ever be completed,” said Kelly Sheehan, senior director of energy campaigns at the Sierra Club, which along with other environmental groups filed the latest lawsuit. Equitrans, which has a roughly 47.8% ownership interest in Mountain Valley and will operate the pipe, said it has funded about $2.4 billion of the project as of Sept. 30.
Federal court again yanks two Mountain Valley Pipeline approvals - A federal appeals court has again rejected permits issued by the U.S. Forest Service and the Bureau of Land Management allowing Mountain Valley Pipeline to cross three and a half miles and four streams in the Jefferson National Forest in Virginia and West Virginia. In its ruling issued Tuesday, the Richmond-based Fourth Circuit Court of Appeals concluded that the federal agencies “inadequately considered the actual sedimentation and erosion impacts” of the pipeline, “prematurely authorized” the use of a stream-crossing method and “failed to comply” with a Forest Service rule governing forest management. Mountain Valley Pipeline spokesperson Natalie Cox in an email said the developers “are thoroughly reviewing” the decision “and will be expeditiously evaluating the project’s next steps and timing considerations.” Delays related to permitting and legal challenges have repeatedly pushed back the pipeline’s completion date and increased its budget. While the project’s backers initially projected it would be completed in 2018 at a cost of $3.7 billion, Mountain Valley most recently announced it expected to finish the 300-mile pipeline by summer 2022, with an overall price tag of $6.2 billion. This is the second time the Fourth Circuit has rejected permits from the Forest Service and BLM for the national forest crossing. In July 2018, the court vacated the approvals largely over concerns with how the agencies had reviewed sedimentation impacts. Subsequently the agencies prepared supplemental environmental reviews and in January issued a second round of approvals for Mountain Valley Pipeline. A coalition of environmental groups including the Sierra Club, Wild Virginia and Appalachian Voices, many of whom were involved in the first round of litigation, immediately sued again. The Fourth Circuit on Tuesday accepted many of the petitioners’ arguments that the Forest Service and Bureau of Land Management had failed to meet federal environmental requirements and “inadequately” considered the project’s erosion and sediment impacts. “The Forest Service and the BLM erroneously failed to account for real-world data suggesting increased sedimentation along the pipeline route,” the court concluded. In particular, the judges noted that the agencies’ environmental analyses had not included water quality data from U.S. Geological Survey monitoring stations 15 miles from the Jefferson National Forest that showed sedimentation downstream of the pipeline far exceeded predictions for the Roanoke River put forward in Mountain Valley Pipeline’s hydrologic analyses. The court also agreed with the environmental groups that the agencies’ decision to allow the pipeline to use conventional boring to cross four streams within Jefferson National Forest was “premature” because an assessment of the method’s environmental impacts by the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission hasn’t yet been released.
MVP Dealt Yet Another Blow by Fourth Circuit as Reissued Forest Permits Vacated - Dealing a blow to Mountain Valley Pipeline LLC’s expectations for a timely conclusion to the drawn-out regulatory saga, a federal court has once again struck down crucial permitting for the natural gas conduit’s crossing of the Jefferson National Forest. The U.S. Court of Appeals for the Fourth Circuit on Tuesday vacated and remanded key authorizations issued to MVP by the U.S. Forest Service and the Bureau of Land Management (BLM) to enable the 303-mile, 2 million Dth/d pipeline to cross a 3.5-mile stretch of national forest land along the Virginia and West Virginia border. Partly siding with a coalition of environmental groups challenging the project, the Fourth Circuit found that the federal agencies erred by failing to account for data showing the erosion impacts of the project and by “prematurely” authorizing the conventional bore method for four stream crossings within the national forest. The agencies also failed to comply with a 2012 forest planning rule, the court found. In an order explaining the court’s decision, Circuit Judge Stephanie Thacker criticized the agencies for not considering water quality monitoring data from the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) showing impacts of the pipeline’s construction 15 miles outside of the Jefferson National Forest. “The USGS data showed water turbidity values that were 20% higher downstream from the pipeline’s construction than upstream — a significant difference from the 2.1% increase in sedimentation the hydrologic analyses predicted for the Roanoke River,” Thacker wrote. As for the stream crossings, the agencies should have waited for FERC to complete an environmental analysis of MVP’s plans to switch to a conventional bore method for stream crossings, according to the court. Even though the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission approved “the use of the conventional bore method for the stream crossings inside the Jefferson National Forest, the Forest Service and the BLM, in deciding whether to approve the pipeline’s route over those lands, would surely benefit from FERC’s environmental analysis of the use of the conventional bore method for other stream crossings outside the Jefferson National Forest,” Thacker wrote. “As a result, the Forest Service and the BLM improperly approved the use of the conventional bore method for the four streams in the Jefferson National Forest without first considering FERC’s analysis.” The latest court action marks the second time that the Fourth Circuit has struck down MVP’s federal permitting for its planned route through national forest lands. The previous approvals were vacated in July 2018. Revised permitting was issued after the Forest Service concluded a supplemental environmental review in late 2020. Analysts characterized the latest Fourth Circuit ruling as a clear setback for MVP, which first received its FERC certificate in 2017 but has been dogged by legal and regulatory setbacks that have dragged out the construction process. “In our view, these permits needed to be upheld on appeal in order for MVP to complete construction as planned,” analysts at ClearView Energy Partners LLC told clients. “That now appears off the table given the need for the agencies to revisit the evidence presented by petitioners in a more substantive fashion.” Similarly, Wood Mackenzie analyst Colette Breshears estimated that the start of service would likely slip to 2023 on the latest developments.
Mountain Valley Pipeline’s Up-And-Down Legal Journey: Explained - For about seven years, the Mountain Valley Pipeline project has forged through a raft of legal challenges and regulatory hurdles that ultimately doomed several other projects in the region. The $6.2 billion, 304-mile natural gas pipeline system would span from northwestern West Virginia to southern Virginia. The line is more than 90% constructed, according to pipeline developers, with an aim of transporting Appalachian shale gas to the eastern U.S.—a cherished goal for the gas industry. EQM Midstream Partners would operate the pipeline, and it owns a significant interest in the project. But the latest legal blow arrived Tuesday. The U.S. Court of Appeals for the Fourth Circuit tossed the federal government’s approval of the project’s three-and-a-half-mile route through Jefferson National Forest. The Mountain Valley Pipeline was designed to carry 2 billion cubic feet of natural gas a day, alleviating a natural gas glut created by the hydraulic fracturing drilling boom. The drilling technique unlocked gas reserves trapped by shale rock formations underlying Appalachia. In the past decade, major pipeline projects sprung up to move gas drilled in states like Pennsylvania, West Virginia, and Ohio to places like New England, the Mid-Atlantic, and the South, said Victor B. Flatt, a George Washington University visiting professor who studies energy and environmental law. U.S. utilities’ shift from burning coal to natural gas—and growing export opportunities to Europe, Asia, and the Caribbean—fed the rush. Mountain Valley’s “ability to lock in contracts with several shippers who stand by the pipeline even through its legal challenges confirms the utility and consumer interest,” said Felix Mormann, a professor at Texas A&M University School of Law. The Mountain Valley project, if it succeeds, would be a major win for the industry as other regional gas pipelines have succumbed to rising local opposition and political pressure. Among projects canceled since 2020: The 116-mile PennEast Pipeline from Pennsylvania to New Jersey; the 600-mile Atlantic Coast pipeline from West Virginia across Virginia and into North Carolina; and the 121-mile Constitution pipeline, which would have traveled from northeast Pennsylvania to central New York. Environmental groups sued to block the PennEast Pipeline, Atlantic Coast Pipeline, and other canceled projects. Their opposition to the Mountain Valley Pipeline is just as vigorous, according to Carolyn Elefant, an attorney with her own energy practice who started her career at the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission. The Sierra Club, Appalachian Voices, and Wild Virginia say the project isn’t needed, and they want the D.C. Circuit to overturn FERC’s orders allowing construction to proceed. Groups led by Appalachian Voices also want the Fourth Circuit to reject the Fish and Wildlife Service’s finding that the project wouldn’t jeopardize protected species. West Virginia and Virginia recently approved water permits for the project, which prompted more lawsuits. The Sierra Club has received funding from Bloomberg Philanthropies, the charitable organization founded by Michael Bloomberg. Bloomberg Law is operated by entities controlled by Michael Bloomberg. One of the differences between the Mountain Valley Pipeline and the PennEast, Constitution, and Atlantic Coast pipelines is that the canceled projects faced strong opposition from states, Elefant said. VIDEO: We look at the series of high profile legal setbacks that has some in the industry asking—is it still possible to build pipelines in America? Environmental groups didn’t need state opposition to secure a win in their challenge to a three-and-a-half-mile pipeline route through a national forest in Virginia and West Virginia. The Bureau of Land Management and Forest Service didn’t consider sedimentation and erosion impacts, prematurely approved the use of a conventional bore method to build stream crossings, and failed to comply with a forest planning rule, the court said. The agencies must now consider the forest crossing plan for a third time. The first two reviews were completed under the Trump administration, but this is the first time the Biden administration will take a look.
Comstock Says Proved Natural Gas Reserves Climb 9% in 2021; Output Up Alongside Prices - Buoyed by solid demand and strong prices, Comstock Resources Inc. said it ramped up activity in the Haynesville Shale and grew its proved reserves of primarily natural gas by 9% in 2021. The Frisco, TX-based independent estimated reserves of 6.12 Tcfe at the close of last year, up from 5.63 Tcfe a year earlier. Of those reserves, 37% were developed and 98% were company operated, it said. Natural gas accounted for about 98% of the total reserves. The producer is focused on developing the Haynesville in North Louisiana and East Texas. Comstock said it spent $628.2 million in 2021 to drill 100 horizontal shale wells and to put 95 wells on production. The company also invested $21.8 million to acquire proved oil and gas properties and $35.9 million to acquire unproved leases in 2021. Comstock said it produced 489.3 billion Bcf of natural gas in 2021, up from 450.8 Bcf in 2020. In the fourth quarter of 2021, production averaged 1.3 Bcfe/d of natural gas, up 12% from a year earlier. The company contributed to a broader industry increase in 2021 as producers increased activity alongside Henry Hub prices, which advanced more than 40% during the year. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said production of dry natural gas averaged an estimated 93.5 Bcf/d in 2021, up 2.0 Bcf/d from 2020. It topped 96 Bcf at points late last year. EIA forecast average production will increase by 2.5 Bcf/d in 2022. . Growth is expected to be “led by the Haynesville region, where production tends to be sensitive to change in U.S. benchmark Henry Hub natural gas prices, and by the Permian Basin, where production tends to be more sensitive to oil prices,” EIA researchers said, noting that benchmark crude prices recently touched multi-year highs. “In 2023, we expect dry natural gas production to increase by 1.5 Bcf/d to reach 97.6 Bcf/d.” Comstock’s growth in the fourth quarter built on gains in the third quarter, when its total production climbed 25% year/year. After posting those results, CEO Jay Allison in November vowed to accelerate drilling in the Haynesville.
U.S. natgas futures edge up on soaring European prices — U.S. natural gas futures edged up on Monday as output remains slow to recover from well freeze-offs earlier in January, along with forecasts for more cold and heating demand this week than previously expected and a 16% jump in European gas futures. European gas futures soared on concerns that Russia will invade the Ukraine and cut off supplies of gas to the rest of Europe. Traders said demand for U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) will remain strong so long as global prices keep trading well above U.S. futures. Global prices were currently about seven times over U.S. futures as utilities around the world scramble for LNG cargoes to replenish low stockpiles in Europe and meet surging demand in Asia. Front-month gas futures () for February delivery rose 2.8 cents, or 0.7%, to settle at $4.027 per million British thermal units (mmBtu). Futures for the spring and summer months were up more than the front-month, which will expire later this week. U.S. speculators last week boosted their net long futures and options positions on the New York Mercantile and Intercontinental Exchanges for a second week in a row with gas demand expected to have reached a record high on Jan. 21, according to the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission's Commitments of Traders report. During that February freeze, next-day gas jumped to record highs in several parts of the country - gaining over 1,100% on Feb. 12 at the Waha hub (NG-WAH-WTX-SNL) in West Texas - as a winter storm left millions without power and heat for days after freezing gas wells and pipes in Texas and other U.S. central states. Data provider Refinitiv said output in the U.S. Lower 48 states had averaged 94.3 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in January, down from a record 97.6 bcfd in December. Production rose a bit over the weekend from the lows seen last week. With less cold weather forecast, Refinitiv projected average U.S. gas demand, including exports, would drop from 143.2 bcfd this week to 133.9 next week. On a daily basis, Refinitiv said total U.S. gas demand plus exports hit a preliminary 155.8 bcfd on Jan. 21, which would top the current record of 150.6 bcfd on Jan. 30, 2019. The amount of gas flowing to U.S. LNG export plants has averaged 12.5 bcfd so far this month, which would top December's monthly record of 12.2 bcfd.
US gas production drop persists, tightening supply and increasing call on storage | S&P Global Platts - Following a precipitous drop in US natural gas production earlier this month, output has continued to stumble in late January, tightening the domestic market balance just as colder weather arrives. With gas-fired heating demand hitting seasonal highs recently, increased reliance on gas storage could pose renewed upside risk for 2022 forwards prices. After approaching a prior record high at over 96.3 Bcf/d in late December, US gas production has tumbled since the start of the new year, falling by over 4 Bcf/d to average just 92.2 Bcf/d in January. With output sputtering in the mid-91 Bcf/d range over the past week, US supply has tightened significantly since late December just as temperatures and demand hit levels unseen since last winter, data from S&P Global Platts Analytics shows. In January, population-weighted temperatures across the US Northeast and Midwest – both key heating-demand regions – have dipped into the teens and even the single-digits Fahrenheit. US residential-commercial gas demand has spiked in response, averaging about 51.8 Bcf/d month to date – about 6.9 Bcf/d, or more than 15%, higher compared with the year-ago average. Over the next week, heating demand is expected to continue outperforming, averaging nearly 54.9 Bcf/d with the potential for a new winter-season high at over 62 Bcf/d on Jan. 26, forecast data shows. Tighter supply and strong demand have increased the call on gas storage recently – a trend that appears likely to continue into early February with the potential to significantly reduce inventory levels. In the two storage reporting weeks ended Jan. 13, the US gas industry pulled an estimated 385 Bcf from inventory, outpacing the prior five-year average drawdown by some 63 Bcf, data from the US Energy Information Administration shows. Over the coming three reporting weeks, that trend is expected to continue, according to an updated forecast from Platts Analytics. For the reporting weeks ending Jan. 21, Jan. 28 and Feb. 4, currently projected drawdowns of 210 Bcf, 263 Bcf and 198 Bcf, respectively, would outpace the historical average by a collective 210 Bcf in total. If realized, the withdraws would cut stocks to 2.14 Tcf by early February and the leave the US gas market with a 177 Bcf storage deficit. Even assuming subsequent, average storage drawdowns over the balance of winter, the US gas market would enter the coming injection season with less than 1.5 Tcf in the ground – the lowest winter-ending inventory level since late March 2019, when the US market entered injection season with just 1.1 Tcf.
U.S. natgas futures jump near 6% to 1-wk high on cold forecasts -- U.S. natural gas futures jumped almost 6% to a one-week high on Wednesday on forecasts confirming prior outlooks that the weather will remain colder-than-normal through mid-February. On its second to last day as the front month, gas futures NGc1 for February delivery rose 22.4 cents, or 5.5%, to settle at $4.277 per million British thermal units (mmBtu), their highest close since Jan. 18 for a second day in a row. Futures for March, which will soon be the front month, were up 12 cents at $4.02 per mmBtu. In the spot market, meanwhile, frigid weather and high heating demand over the past week or so in the U.S. Northeast have kept next-day power and gas prices in New York and New England at or near their highest levels since January 2018. Analysts said bitter cold in the United States in recent weeks will boost heating demand enough to force utilities to keep pulling huge amounts of gas from storage, pushing overall inventories below the five-year average for the first time since mid-December Data provider Refinitiv said average output in the U.S. Lower 48 states fell from a record 97.6 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) in December to 94.2 bcfd so far in January after frigid weather froze wells in several regions, including the Permian in Texas and New Mexico, the Bakken in North Dakota and Appalachia in Pennsylvania, West Virginia and Ohio.
US gas storage fields post largest draw of season as cold weather stays | S&P Global Platts - US natural gas storage fields withdrew more than 200 Bcf for the second week in a row as a pair of 200-plus pulls look likely in the weeks ahead, as the Henry Hub prompt propels to a 14-year high with the largest daily jump for Henry Hub forwards on record. Storage fields withdrew 219 Bcf for the week ended Jan. 21, according to data released by the US Energy Information Administration on Jan. 27. It was stronger than the 214 Bcf draw expected by an S&P Global Platts survey of analysts. The drawdown also outpaced the five-year average of 161 Bcf and last year's 137 Bcf pull in the corresponding week. It proved to be the largest draw of the winter as it outweighed the 206 Bcf draw reported for the week prior Working gas inventories decreased to 2.591 Tcf. US storage volumes now stand 308 Bcf, or 10.6%, less than the year-ago level of 2.899 Tcf and 25 Bcf, or 1%, less than the five-year average of 2.616 Tcf. The EIA report marked the fourth consecutive week of increasing storage withdrawal activity. The draw of 215 Bcf last week was nearly seven times larger than the withdrawal reported during the final week of 2021. Fundamentals have changed dramatically from month to month when the market was eagerly awaiting a storage withdrawal of 100 Bcf or greater. The market is now looking at storage withdrawals rapidly approaching, but not likely to reach, the 300 Bcf mark, according to S&P Global Platts Analytics. The NYMEX Henry Hub February contract catapulted nearly $2 to $6.26/MMBtu in trading following the release of the EIA's storage report on Jan. 27. The prompt month has not closed higher since November 2008. It was also the largest daily jump for Henry Hub forwards on record. Every forward month remains well above $4/MMBtu until April 2023 where it settled at $3.33/MMBtu. Forecasts are calling for more below-normal temperatures and possible well freeze-offs extending into February, according to S&P Global Platts Analytics. Platts Analytics calls for an even larger draw of 262 Bcf for the week ending Jan. 28 with another 200-plus pull likely for the week after. Despite the massive draw expected for the week in progress, demand was down across the Lower 48 on Jan. 27. Supply and demand across all sectors saw downward movement Jan. 27, leaving total US demand down 12.2 Bcf/d on the day to 134.1 Bcf/d, and total US supply down 1.4 Bcf/d to 97.9 Bcf/d, according to Platts Analytics. Residential and commercial demand dropped to 54.4 Bcf/d, accounting for 9.5 Bcf/d of the total decline due to warming temperatures across the nation. The biggest day-on-day losses came from the Midwest, down 5.4 Bcf/d to 17.1 Bcf/d, and the Northeast, down 3 Bcf/d to 18.8 Bcf/d. Gas-fired power generation dropped 2 Bcf/d to 31.3 Bcf/d with nearly half the decline coming from Texas.
February Exits Front Month with Furious Rally, as Natural Gas Futures Fly Close to Seven-Year High - Natural gas prices hovered in a narrow range early Thursday but spiked after a bullish government inventory report and customary buying into prompt-month expiration. The February Nymex gas futures contract settled at $6.265/MMBtu, up $1.988 day/day. It rolled off the books at the close. March, which takes over as the front month, climbed 24.7 cents to $4.283. The February contract topped $7.00 intraday. That easily eclipsed any session high to date in 2022. Futures had traded to a seven-week high of $4.879 on Jan. 12 and a seven-year high of $6.466 last Oct. 6. While outlooks into mid-February were evolving as of Thursday and fluctuating between a warm-up and extended cold into next month, the near-term forecast called for a pair of cold blasts that should keep furnaces cranking into early February, NatGasWeather said. A Nor’easter-type system “will track up the East Coast Saturday-Sunday with rain, snow and wind,” the firm said. “National demand is still expected to ease early next week” from Tuesday through Thursday (Feb. 1-3), “as a mild break sets up over the southern and eastern U.S.” with highs from the 40s to 70s. However, “another frigid system is expected into the northern and central U.S.,” beginning next Friday (Feb 4-7) for another round of strong national demand.” While forecasts beyond that are uncertain, “the theme of this winter has been durable weather patterns lasting for longer than initially forecast, including both strong early-winter warmth and the current long-lasting cold spell. From a market perspective, the protracted current cold throughout the heart of winter has steadily reduced late-winter downside risks.” “Natural gas contracts rolling off the board have gained an average 12.1 cents in 12 of the past 14 months on their final trading day,” . “While support for March may relent seasonally absent a true storage adequacy threat, a falling end-of-winter storage trajectory has limited the extent of likely declines over the next month.” Indeed, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) on Thursday reported a withdrawal of 219 Bcf natural gas from storage for the week ended Jan. 21. It marked the biggest pull of the winter season to date and easily eclipsed historical averages. It also exceeded market expectations.
U.S. Natural Gas Prices Climb Most Ever In Single Day - U.S. natural gas future prices skyrocketed 72% on Thursday on forecasts of colder weather. It was the sharpest one-day climb for the commodity since the contract launched in 1990, CME Group data confirmed.The 72% surge in prices came before the expiry of the February contract for nat gas as weather forecasts now look colder. The March contract’s price rise paled compared to the February contract rise. But the 10% rise for the March contract—on any other day—would have been more noticeable. Natural gas futures were trading below $4.50 per million British thermal units for most of the trading day, but some time after 12:45 p.m. EST, prices scrambled for the $7 mark, with the contract eventually settling at $6.265. The huge spike in the February contract is a clear sign that bearish bets were being squeezed out of the market.Natural gas prices have been particularly volatile as of late, with nat gas prices surging 6% just a day earlier as cold weather in many parts of the United States boosted demand and the Russia-Ukraine conflict spooked the market into fearing disruptions to the flow of natural gas from Russia to Europe.The cold weather is expected to boost demand for natural gas through space heating and electricity in the coming days, with estimates from NatGasWeather.com estimating that natural gas demand will be strong through the weekend as a cold snap is expected to hit many parts of the country.But today’s price movement is certainly more about a short squeeze than about demand forecasts. According to data compiled by Bloomberg, hedge funds have been net-long on nat gas contracts, expecting prices to rise. But money managers have still held onto a fair share of short positions. Given the price spike, it is clear that some of those money managers waited until the eleventh hour to cover their short bets.
U.S. natgas spikes after record gain in prior session on frigid weather — (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures jumped about 8% on Friday as a major winter storm targets the Northeast and on forecasts for much colder weather and higher heating demand in the next two weeks than previously expected, which had also caused prices in the now-expired February contract to soar over 70% late Thursday. In the last half hour of trading on Thursday, futures for February soared in a late flurry of buying that coincided with the imminent expiration of the contract at the end of the session. Traders said short-covering after a larger-than-usual weekly storage draw and forecasts for colder-than-normal weather were the primary reasons for Thursday's late-day price spike. Analysts at Gelber and Associates said there was talk in the market "that a large producer's inability to make delivery at Henry Hub forced them to cover short positions and put them on the wrong side of one of the most dramatic price escalations in the market’s history." On its first day as the front-month, gas futures for March delivery rose 35.6 cents, or 8.3%, from where the March contract closed on Thursday to settle at $4.639 per million British thermal units (mmBtu) on Friday. But compared to where the February contract closed when it was the front-month on Thursday, the March contract was down about 26%, which would be the biggest daily percentage decline since December 1995 when it hit a record 31%. In intraday trade on Thursday, the February contract rose to $7.346 per mmBtu, the highest price for the front-month since November 2008. The contract settled up about 46% at $6.265, its biggest daily percentage gain on record and the highest close for the front-month since October 2021. Of the 7,182 February contracts traded on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) on Thursday, about 2,874 traded during the last 30 minutes before the future expired at 2:30 p.m. EST (1930 GMT), according to data from the NYMEX and Refinitiv. Prices during those 30 minutes averaged $6.04 per mmBtu. At 10,000 mmBtu per contract, the total value of those 2,874 contracts was around $174 million. For the week, the front-month was up 16%, its biggest weekly percentage gain since August 2020. Last week, the contract fell about 6%.
Bill introduced to stop utilities from charging customers for natural gas lost to leaky pipes - A Michigan state senator wants to pass a law prohibiting the state's natural gas utilities from charging customers for gas that leaks from pipes or gas that is otherwise lost because of variations in temperature, meter tampering, or during repairs to pipelines. Senator Jeff Irwin (D-Ann Arbor) said together Consumers Energy and DTE Energy are allowed by regulators to charge ratepayers about $25 million a year for lost and unaccounted-for gas. The chief component of natural gas is methane, a potent greenhouse gas which contributes to climate change. “I want to provide an incentive for these utilities to go out there and tighten up these leaks, protect our environment, and protect our ratepayers too,” Senator Irwin said. He conceded it will cost more upfront to fix the leaks, and customers will ultimately pay for that. “But, over time you make that up. Continuing to let our system leak every year and just pay for the leaks every year doesn’t make any sense to me,” Irwin said. Responding in an email, Consumers spokesperson Katie Carey said in part, “Already we have retired 700 miles of vintage pipe, accounting for 24% of our vintage material targeted for replacement and modernization on the distribution system and the advanced measurement technology we have deployed to minimize variances.” A statement from DTE indicated the utility has upgraded more than 1,000 miles of pipelines since 2010.
Idle Oil, Natural Gas Wells Said to Need Proper Monitoring, Maintenance - The Interstate Oil and Gas Compact Commission (IOGCC) recently released its latest counts of documented idle and orphan oil and gas wells in the United States and Canada. “Many idle wells have potential for future oil or gas production or associated uses,” stated IOGCC. “If not properly monitored and maintained, however, they may pose a risk to the environment, public health, and safety.” Idle wells have not been plugged, nor are they producing, injecting, or otherwise being used for their intended purpose, according to IOGCC. Orphan wells, in contrast, are “idle wells for which the operator is unknown or insolvent,” the Oklahoma City-based multi-state government entity added. More federal funding is expected to go toward plugging, remediating, and restoring orphan oil and gas well sites. In November President Biden signed into law the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act (IIJA), which the U.S. Department of the Interior said includes $4.7 billion for such activities. IOGCC noted that IIJA was enacted shortly before publication of its new report, Idle and Orphan Oil and Gas Wells: State and Provincial Regulatory Strategies 2021. It stated the legislation includes money to plug orphan wells on federal, state, private, and tribal lands. “In most states and provinces, idle wells with no future beneficial use must be plugged,” stated IOGCC, which surveyed 32 member states and five Canadian provinces for the report. IOGCC said there were 231,287 approved idle wells reported by the states and 140,183 by the provinces at the end of 2020. It stated that operators plugged 62,463 idle wells in the United States and 16,295 in Canada over the three-year span covered in the report. In the United States, a total of 1,619,071 documented wells have been drilled but not plugged, stated IOGCC. The organization said the total for the Canadian provinces is 372,697. At the end of 2020, surveyed states reported 92,198 documented orphan wells and provinces reported 5,015 such wells, noted IOGCC. The organization said improved investigation and operator verification efforts resulted in a 50% increase in the number of documented orphan wells from 2018 to 2020. States and provinces plugged 9,774 and 4,930 orphan wells, respectively, during the period. “In total through 2020, the states have plugged over 78,000 orphan wells and the provinces almost 6,300,” said IOGCC. The organization said the cost to plug an orphan well “varies widely depending on well depth and condition, location, accessibility, and other factors.” The average per-well expenditure ranged from $2,400 to $227,000 in 25 states from 2018 through 2020, with an overall three-year average of $25,634, stated IOGCC. In the three Canadian provinces that plugged orphan wells from 2018 through 2020, the average per-well outlay was C$41,156 ($32,781), which IOGCC derived from a range of C$37,528 to C$42,047 ($29,891 to $33,490). “These numbers do not include expenditures for site restoration,”
Oil powering a big chunk of power grid - NEW ENGLAND POWER plants are burning a lot more oil to generate electricity, apparently because the cost of natural gas is so high. In January last year, oil accounted for just 0.2 percent of the fuel mix used to generate power across the region. This month, starting around January 7, oil began accounting for 20 to 25 percent of power generation, behind only natural gas and nuclear. Coal even popped up in the fuel mix, at about 3 percent. The higher use of oil and coal means greater carbon emissions across the region and underscores how far the region has to go to trim and eventually eliminate its use of fossil fuels in electricity production. Matthew Kakley, a spokesman for ISO-New England, the region’s power grid operator, said power generators using oil are gaining a larger market share right now because their fuel costs are lower. “I don’t have a direct overlay of temperatures and the fuel mix, but what we’re seeing is that natural gas prices are much higher this year than last year, which is making gas plants more expensive than oil units,” Kakley said in an email. “Part of this higher cost is driven by cold weather limiting the amount of gas available to power generators, but it is also affected by higher natural gas prices nationally. For context, the average price for natural gas in Massachusetts last January was $4.97 per MMBtu. It’s only half a month, so it’s not exactly an apples-to-apples comparison yet, but what we’ve seen so far this month is prices averaging $12.39 per MMBtu.” Dan Dolan, president of the New England Power Generators Association, said natural gas prices are higher internationally and domestically than they have been in years. He said supplies of natural gas have stagnated but demand has been picking up, leading to the sharp increases in price. December was a fairly mild month, but colder weather hit the region in the second week of January. In colder weather, more natural gas goes to homes for heating and there is less available for power generators. With natural gas prices spiking, power generators using oil as their fuel jumped into the breach, successfully bidding into the region’s wholesale electricity market for a much greater share of the region’s power generation.
U.S. judge voids 80 million acres of offshore oil and gas leases--The sale of offshore oil and gas leases on more than 80 million acres in the Gulf of Mexico was canceled by a U.S. judge who ordered regulators to take a harder look at the impact on climate change. U.S. District Judge Rudolph Contreras in Washington vacated the lease sale in a 67-page decision, issued Thursday. The judge found that the Interior Department underestimated the climate impacts of the leases and doing a further analysis wouldn’t overly harm the companies seeking the leases. “The leases have not become effective and no activity on them is taking place,” the judge wrote. If the leases were to take effect, it would be much harder to cancel them, Contreras said. The judge also criticized the Interior Department -- writing that it acted “arbitrarily” -- for failing to factor into its assessment the climate effect of the burning of oil and gas from the leases in countries outside the U.S. The court’s decision throws into doubt the November sale of some 308 tracts spanning 1.7 million acres (688,000 hectares) of the Gulf of Mexico. Thirty-three oil companies spent about $192 million buying the drilling rights in the auction, the second-to-last scheduled under a five-year program drawn up by the Obama administration. And it raises questions about a possible Gulf auction in spring. In one of his first acts as president, Joe Biden put a temporary halt on all new oil and gas leasing. But last year, a federal judge in Louisiana ordered the Biden administration to move ahead with the leases. Environmental groups then sued to halt the sale. The Interior Department said in a statement that it was compelled to proceed with the state by the Louisiana court and is reviewing the latest ruling. “Our public lands and waters must be protected for generations to come,” the department said. “That’s why the president called for a pause on leasing in his Executive Order, and why we are appealing the decision enjoining implementation of the pause.” By vacating Interior’s decision to hold the lease sale, the court has ensured that no harm will result from it, the environmental groups, including Earthjustice and Center for Biological Diversity, said in a statement after the ruling. Whatever Interior decides to do, it must start with a blank slate on the lease program and consider the full environmental costs associated with auctioning off public waters to the fossil-fuel industry, the groups said.
Calcasieu Pass in Louisiana nearing start of LNG production - U.S. LNG project developer Venture Global LNG is nearing production of the first amount of liquified natural gas at its new Calcasieu Pass export facility in Louisiana. Venture Global is developing an LNG export facility in Cameron Parish, Louisiana, south of the city of Lake Charles. The project site is at a location that features deep-water access, proximity to gas supplies, and ease of transport for buyers. Once complete, the facility will export 10 million tonnes per year (mtpa) of LNG.The company states the official start of operations as the first quarter of 2023. However, Reuters reports citing energy traders, that the facility is close to producing its first LNG. This came after the amount of feed gas to the facility increased rapidly this week. The amount of gas flowing to Calcasieu rose to 88 million cubic feet per day (mmcfd) on 21 January; from an average of about 38 mmcfd during the prior week.In December, Venture Global and Louisiana goverment announced the company will invest more than $10 billion to develop Calcasieu Pass 2 (CP2) LNG, a fourth LNG export facility in Louisiana. It will build, own and operate an LNG terminal with a liquefaction capacity of 20 mpta of LNG. Furthermore, the company signed a sales and purchase agreement with China’s CNOOC. Under this, China will buy 1.5 million tonnes of LNG from the Calcasieu Pass facility.
Calcasieu Pass ramps up feedgas deliveries as it prepares to begin LNG production | S&P Global Platts -- Feedgas deliveries to Venture Global LNG's Calcasieu Pass reached the highest level to date Jan. 24 – more than double the amount from a week earlier -- as the Louisiana liquefaction facility prepared to begin production, S&P Global Platts Analytics data showed. Once online and fully ramped up, the seventh major US LNG export facility will have a capacity of 10 million mt/year. In the weeks ahead, Calcasieu Pass will be starting up at a time of significant volatility in supply, demand and prices in the global LNG market. US terminals continue to operate at or near full capacity, amid strong netbacks to end-user markets. No cancellations at Gulf Coast facilities have been reported in recent months. "Impossible," an Atlantic-based trader said of the potential for any cancellations in the near-term. "LNG is so much in the money." Platts assessed the Gulf Coast Marker at $26.250/MMBtu on Jan. 24, up $3.750/MMBtu on the day, as US FOB cargo values tracked European prices and low shipping rates. Based on nominations for the morning cycle, gas deliveries observed to be flowing to Calcasieu Pass totaled 77.36 MMcf/d on Jan. 24, up from 47.56 MMcf/d the previous day and 34.71 MMcf/d a week earlier, Platts Analytics data showed. According to Venture Global, all 18 liquefaction modules have been received at the Louisiana terminal from Italy and set on foundations. Earlier in January, the operator received US regulatory approval to begin commissioning the first two-train block with feedgas. Company officials have not addressed whether a cargo will be imported to the terminal for the purposes of cooling down the storage tanks, before the first export from the facility. Cheniere Energy brought in a cool-down cargo before its Sabine Pass terminal, the biggest US liquefaction facility, began exports in 2016. Last spring, the Venture Global had suggested the first export could occur by the end of 2021, a year ahead of its original schedule. Total US LNG feedgas demand stood at 13.28 Bcf/d on Jan. 24, up from 11.43 Bcf/d the previous day and 12.96 Bcf/d a week earlier. At Freeport LNG, utilization recovered Jan. 24 following an unplanned outage on Jan. 23. According to an air emissions notice to Texas regulators, the loss of electric power to Freeport LNG's upstream pretreatment facility resulted in a trip of Freeport LNG's liquefaction trains 1, 2 and 3. "Because of the trip, the boil-off gas compressors also tripped due to an increase in pressure in the BOG recovery system," the notice said. The three LNG trains appeared to be operating on Jan. 24, a person familiar with the outage said.
Feeling Inflation Pinch, Permian E&Ps Targeting Further Efficiency Gains - Continued efficiency improvements are expected to be critical for natural gas and oil producers in the Permian Basin this year as cost inflation for oilfield services (OFS) takes full effect. Larger exploration and production (E&P) independents that locked in cheaper OFS agreements in early 2021 and stuck to their capital expenditure (capex) budgets stayed somewhat shielded from inflation last year, according to Rystad Energy’s Artem Abramov, head of shale research. “Already in early 2021, we started getting some reports about a labor shortage,” Abramov told NGI. It started with the trucking segment, “and that’s always the first sign of upcoming cost inflation.” Privately held E&Ps, meanwhile, “warmed up” service rates in 2021 as they continued to add drilling rigs throughout the year, capitalizing on high oil and gas prices while their publicly traded counterparts maintained capital discipline, Abramov said. For 2022, though, public E&Ps will have no choice but to accept higher OFS prices, Abramov said. Goldman Sachs researchers led by Neil Mehta expressed a similar view recently in a research note to clients. The analyst team said “we see risk for higher capex from cost inflation – the majority of producers at our recent Goldman Global Energy and Clean Technology conference highlighted single/double-digit inflation owing to labor, steel and fuel costs. “We see potential for inflationary pressure not just in 2022 budgets but also in 2023/24 budgets in part due to the need to incentivize further rig/stimulation crew adds.” Rystad, for its part, expects cost inflation alone to drive an estimated 15% year/year increase in drilling and completion costs for Lower 48 operators in 2022, Abramov said. ConocoPhillips CEO Ryan Lance said in November during the 3Q2021 conference call that inflation impacts were likely to be felt most acutely in the Permian heading into 2022. However, because of the Houston-based independent’s scale and sophisticated supply chain network, “we think we have a way to mitigate quite a lot” of the inflationary pressure. Inflation impacts should be offset somewhat by efficiency gains, which in recent years have been saving the industry an estimated $3-4 billion annually, according to Rystad. The Goldman team highlighted efficiency improvements by Permian heavyweights such as Devon Energy Corp.. Since the first quarter of 2018, Devon has “reduced total company operating costs by 23% driven largely by a 34% reduction in Permian operating costs over the same time period,” analysts said. EOG Resources Inc., meanwhile, “is targeting flat well costs in 2022 as a result of continued operational efficiencies and having [roughly] 50% of well costs already secured for the year,” the Goldman team said.
Texas Upstream Oil, Natural Gas Sector Gains 3,000 Jobs Amid Labor Market 'Fireworks’ -Texas’ upstream oil and gas employment grew to 188,700 in December, representing increases of 3,000 jobs month/month and 27,800 positions year/year, the Texas Independent Producers and Royalty Owners Association (TIPRO) reported last week. “Oil and natural gas employment continues to rebound, providing quality, high-paying jobs to Texans throughout the state, and we expect that trend to continue,” said President Ed Longanecker. The Lone Star State’s upstream employment has now risen for eight months straight, said TIPRO, which tabulates job figures from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Current Employment Statistics report. According to the Texas Oil and Gas Association (TXOGA), that equates to an average monthly gain of 2,538 new jobs. TIPRO noted that the state’s oil and gas services headcount has grown by 26,500 jobs year/year while the oil and gas extraction total is up 1,300 jobs for the period. December’s 3,000-job increase marks a 25% month/month improvement from the upstream employment growth, growth, TIPRO reported for November. It also eclipses gains for October and September.. “These employment opportunities also span across a spectrum of occupations, from laborers and roustabouts to software developers and electrical engineers,” said Longanecker. TIPRO said it continued to see strong job posting data in December for the state’s upstream, midstream, and downstream sectors. The trade association noted that it tracked 8,484 active unique oil and gas postings for the month, including 2,612 new job postings. The organization, which further defines the state’s oil and gas industry within the bounds of 14 specific sectors, said support activities ranked highest in December with 2,144 unique job postings. Claiming the second and third positions were crude petroleum extraction (1,506 postings) and petroleum refineries (874). Houston had the most number of unique oil and gas job postings in December with 3,041 listings, said TIPRO. Midland, the heart of the Permian Basin, and Dallas claimed the next two spots on the list with 939 and 531 postings, respectively. In its ranking of the top companies by unique job postings, TIPRO said NOV Inc. took the lead with 477 listings, followed by Baker Hughes Co. (468) and Halliburton Co. (407).
Aerial surveys detect dozens of methane 'super-emitters' in Permian - (Reuters) -Around 30 oil and gas facilities across the Permian Basin in Texas and New Mexico spewed large amounts of methane for three years, emitting the equivalent annual climate pollution from half a million cars, according to a report released on Monday. The facilities, which include well pads, pipelines, compressor stations and processing facilities, were observed as "persistently" emitting large volumes of methane over the three years of aerial surveys done by the Environmental Defense Fund and research group Carbon Mapper. Carbon Mapper is a non-profit organization backed by philanthropists including Michael Bloomberg that uses technology to see and measure emissions at the scale of individual facilities. The effort, an outgrowth of surveys NASA completed in California using methane-tracking planes, is meant to help polluting industries find and plug leaks. The so-called "super-emitters," located in the most productive U.S. oil field, only account for .001% of the Permian Basin's oil and gas infrastructure but emit around 100,000 tonnes of methane per year. Repairing those leaks offers companies an immediate opportunity to help achieve U.S. and international methane reduction targets and save around $26 million in escaped natural gas, the report said. "The magnitude of emissions coming from a handful of methane sources in one of the top oil and gas producing regions illustrates the opportunity to make significant near-term progress toward the stated methane reduction goals of the U.S., other countries and companies around the world," said Riley Duren, CEO of Carbon Mapper and a researcher at University of Arizona. The report shows these large emission sources cut across a diverse range of infrastructure and oil and gas operators in the Permian Basin. EDF and Carbon Mapper did not disclose the corporate owners of the biggest emitting sources, but provided Reuters with the facilities' coordinates. According to a Reuters review of those locations, plumes identified by the study appeared to be linked to facilities owned by Occidental Petroleum Corp, ConocoPhillips, Energy Transfer Partners LP, Callon Petroleum Co. and Coterra Energy. None of the companies immediately responded to requests for comment. The American Exploration & Production Council, an industry trade group, also had no immediate comment on the survey. Methane is the second-biggest cause of climate change after carbon dioxide. Its high heat-trapping potential and relatively short lifespan in the atmosphere means cutting its emissions can have an outsized impact on the trajectory of the world's climate.
30 Permian Basin Facilities Leak Half a Million Cars' Worth of Methane, Report Finds - As the largest oil-producing region in the U.S., the Permian Basin in Texas and New Mexico is already a nightmare from a climate perspective. But now a new report from Carbon Mapper and Environmental Defense Fund (EDF) reveals that oil and gas facilities in the area are emitting unnecessary greenhouse gas emissions in the form of half a million cars’ worth of methane. “In this decisive decade for reducing greenhouse gas emissions every molecule matters, and the fact that some facilities are persistently leaking methane for years without detection or repair highlights the urgent need for comprehensive and transparent methane monitoring,” Riley Duren, chief executive officer for Carbon Mapper and research scientist at the University of Arizona, said in an EDF press release. The report is based on three years of aerial surveys of oil and gas facilities in the Permian Basin, taken from 2019 to 2021. The surveys revealed that around 30 facilities had consistently leaked large amounts of methane over multiple years. These facilities, which include pipelines, well pads, compressing stations and processing facilities, only account for less than 0.001 percent of the oil and gas infrastructure in the basin, yet stopping their flow of methane would keep 100,000 metric tons of methane out of the atmosphere every year and save $26 million a year in gas. Methane is the second largest contributor to the climate crisis after carbon dioxide, Reuters reported. It lasts for a shorter time in the atmosphere, but while there it traps around 80 times as much heat as carbon dioxide, according to Yale Environment 360. The methane emissions in the report are the result of natural gas leaks, so eliminating those leaks is a relatively simple way to make a big contribution to fighting climate change.
API's "New Tune" on Methane Rules is the Same Old Story - - The American Petroleum Institute’s (API) announcement of support for President Biden’s proposed national methane rules is an illustration of the power of communities and environmental activists to raise the profile of issues like methane pollution from oil and gas and demand bold action to reduce it–just two years ago API was pushing President Trump to undo weaker, Obama era, methane rules. This rapid and significant shift in change is also what makes this public statement disingenuous. After all, this is an industry with a history of machiavellian press relations and politicking. So, what might really be happening behind the decision for API to suddenly support bolder government action to cut oil and gas methane pollution?In March we will release our oil and gas accountability report which tracks climate commitments from 9 major oil and gas companies, compares them to what is actually happening on the ground, and identifies the carbon accounting tricks that the industry relies on to create a facade of progress while they increase emissions.One of those tricks is capitalizing on a broken emissions reporting system that allows them to report their own emissions through a simple multiplication equation without taking any direct measurements of emissions. The result is emissions levels that even the EPA admits are underestimated. Studies that take direct measurements of methane emissions across the sector estimate that the real number is probably 2 times higher. Right now, this flawed data is helping the industry. In fact, it is one of the few indicators that the industry can point to show progress which they need to prove credibility with decision makers and shareholders and to maintain their social license to operate.It’s probably not a coincidence then, that in the same breath as their support for the EPA methane rules API also announced opposition for proposed legislation that would, among other things, require an improvement to the EPA reporting system and charge polluters who surpass an industry defined methane threshold. As they are written right now, the proposed EPA methane rules that API supports are not as comprehensive as they could be. The EPA has the authority to require monthly inspections but the current draft only requires quarterly inspections. The proposed rules also include a loophole of sorts that allows for thousands of wells to avoid regular leak detections all together. Both of these will undoubtedly impact the health of communities living closest to the facilities and leave emissions on the table. However, the rules are not final and there are signs that EPA plans to continue to strengthen them throughout the process. API wasn’t clear whether they would support rules that applied to all wells or included more frequent inspections.
Halliburton sees frac equipment orders double as shale rebounds --Shale-oil companies are using almost all of the frac equipment and crews available as exploration expands, accelerating cost inflation and pointing to worsening supply-chain disruptions across the industry. North American oil drillers appear likely to expand spending by more than 25% this year while overseas explorers are on course for a more modest increase in the mid teens, Halliburton Co. executives said on Monday after reporting their biggest quarterly profit in seven years. The world’s top provider of fracking services already is seeing tightening labor, trucking and raw-material supplies, and in some regions as much as 80% of workers are transplants recruited from other areas. Even something as mundane as the sand Halliburton blasts into wells to help fracture oil-soaked rocks is getting harder to source, Chief Executive Officer Jeff Miller said during a conference call with analysts. The squeeze is proving a boon to Halliburton, which lifted its dividend for the first time since 2014 and said orders for pumping gear have more than doubled. The company’s fracking business is working at full capacity and oil companies are paying higher prices for so-called completion work. ConocoPhillips and peers such as Devon Energy Corp. have been warning since last year that oilfield inflation was a burgeoning threat. “This is a fantastic set of conditions for Halliburton,” Miller said. “Our current completion tool order book has more than doubled from a year ago signaling strong growth and profitability again in 2022.” Oil and natural gas explorers are paying record costs as the economic growth that underpins energy demand rebounds from the pandemic-driven collapse, the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas said in recent weeks. Supply-chain snarls in the Permian Basin -- the biggest U.S. oil field -- are making drilling projects more complicated, prolonged and expensive. Miller said there’s little reason to expect things to change any time soon. “I don’t see 2023 as an endpoint by any means,” Miller said. “I think the road goes on well beyond on that.”
RPC Eyes Upping Fracturing Fleet Count for 2022 - Oilfield services (OFS) and equipment provider RPC Inc. said it might activate another hydraulic fracturing fleet but added that likely would not occur during the first six months of this year. CEO Richard A. Hubbell said that he sees “many indications of continued growing activity levels and improved pricing” in the new year. Last spring, Hubbell predicted a “continued modest recovery” as 2021 progressed. Previously, he said that he anticipated growth from private as well as public exploration and production (E&P) companies.He said the Atlanta-based oilfield services and equipment provider, which serves onshore and offshore E&P firms operating in the United States and internationally, “reactivated idle pressure pumping equipment as market pricing and customer demand has consistently improved.“RPC’s fourth quarter revenues increased as strong current and forecasted commodity prices encouraged our customers to continue their drilling and completion activities,” Hubbell said. “In addition, our revenues grew due to higher pricing and the new Tier IV dual-fuel pressure pumping fleet we placed into service late in the third quarter.” Hubbell also acknowledged that “personnel shortages exacerbated by the current Covid surge” are affecting the operational environment for RPC. “Our industry is also facing materials and parts shortages impacting many essential inputs, as well as price increases for raw materials and components,” he said. “While we have been able to stay ahead of these issues, they may impact our utilization and profitability in the near term.”Cost inflation has presented challenges across the board for OFS companies.During a call to discuss fourth quarter and full-year 2021 earnings, Vice President Corporate Services Jim Landers said that activating another horizontal pressure pumping fleet – bringing the total from the current eight to nine – is one action RPC is contemplating.When asked about the company’s fleet count during the first half of the year, Landers said he “would think of it as being fairly constant to where…we’re starting the year. We’re assessing a number of things. One of them is activation of another fleet.” Landers noted RPC has “some fairly new and good quality equipment that can be reactivated if demand wants it,” but he added the company has no new equipment on order. If RPC had equipment on order, “we don’t know how long it would take for new equipment to be delivered, but we know it would be a little while. So even if you place an order today, you wouldn’t see a new additional fleet in the field from us during the first half of the year.”To be sure, Palmer said the company is “very interested in activating another fleet” under continued favorable economic conditions. “We will continue to evaluate economics to support upgrading our equipment fleet,” Hubbell said.
EIA forecasts US fossil fuel production to reach new highs in 2023 - After declining in 2020, the combined production of US fossil fuels (including natural gas, crude oil, and coal) increased by 2% in 2021 to 77.14 quadrillion British thermal units. Based on forecasts in its latest Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) expects US fossil fuel production to continue rising in both 2022 and 2023, surpassing production in 2019, to reach a new record in 2023. Of the total US fossil fuel production in 2021, dry natural gas accounted for 46%, the largest share. Crude oil accounted for 30%, coal for 15%, and natural gas plant liquids (NGPLs) for 9%. EIA expects those shares to remain similar through 2023.
- US dry natural gas production increased by 2% in 2021, based on monthly data through October and estimates for November and December. In the EIA forecast, improvements in drilling efficiency and new-well production will contribute to production increases of 3% in 2022 and 2% in 2023.
- US crude oil production dropped slightly, by an estimated 1%, in 2021, but EIA expects it to increase by 6% in 2022 and 5% in 2023. EIA forecasts that in 2022 and 2023, crude oil prices will remain high enough to encourage growth in the number of active drilling rigs and continued improvement in drilling efficiency.
- US coal production increased by an estimated 7% in 2021, driven by increased demand for coal because of rising natural gas prices. Coal’s comparatively lower prices made coal more economical for use in electric power generation compared with natural gas. In 2020, US coal production had fallen to its lowest level since 1964. EIA forecasts that coal production will increase 6% in 2022 as coal-fired electricity generators rebuild inventory levels. However, EIA forecasts that coal production will only increase by 1% in 2023 as demand for coal in the electric power sector declines.
- US NGPL production increased by 4% in 2021. EIA expects US NGPL production to increase by 9% in 2022 and then by 4% in 2023. Because NGPLs are a coproduct of natural gas, the forecast for rising NGPL production is linked to the forecast for rising natural gas production.
US shale oil output poised for higher growth - US shale oil production looks to be on a stronger growth path as oil prices rebound and more firms plan to boost spending this year. Oil output is expected to rise by 105,000 b/d, or 1.2pc, from the seven US shale formations covered in the EIA's Drilling Productivity Report (DPR) next month, as new-well production outpaces legacy declines at existing wells by a comfortable margin. Tight oil output growth accelerated in the second half of last year as a strong recovery in the prolific Texas-New Mexico Permian basin was augmented by modest growth in other shale regions (see graph). Most shale firms plan to boost capital spending this year, the latest survey by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas says (see graph). In all, 35pc of upstream company executive respondents expect a significant and 43pc a slight increase in spending, compared with 18pc and 32pc, respectively, a year ago (see graph). Nearly half say their firm's primary goal in 2022 is to boost production, 15pc say it is to maintain production and 13pc say it is to reduce debt. The Dallas Fed survey highlights divergent strategies between private and publicly owned shale producers. More small firms — those with less than 10,000 b/d of production — than large firms aim to lift output this year. A total of 57pc of small firms say their primary goal is to raise production, compared with 24pc of large firms. Close to 30pc of large firms say their primary goal is to reduce debt, compared with 7pc for small firms. Smaller firms are typically privately owned, while larger companies include big public shale producers. Private operators accounted for most of the increase in onshore rig counts last year, consultancy Rystad Energy says. The number of horizontal drilling rigs deployed in the US has risen to 544, up by 60pc on a year ago and about three-quarters of pre-pandemic levels (see graph). But half the rigs are operated by private firms, Rystad says, compared with a third a year ago. Private rig counts now exceed pre-pandemic levels. There was a surge in drilling last year by private operators that were inactive for at least six quarters, Rystad says.
Colorado Makes First Assessment of State's Oil, Natural Gas Emissions - The Colorado Oil and Gas Conservation Commission (COGCC) last month released its first annual report to evaluate the cumulative impacts of oil and natural gas emissions, setting the stage for future evaluations and recommendations. State Senate Bill (SB) 181, enacted in 2019, is designed to limit the effects of emissions and environmental disruptions from oil and gas development. “As the first year of Oil and Gas Development Plan (OGDP) approvals after the Mission Change rules went into effect on January 15, 2021, the data set included in this report is small – it is limited to the seven approved OGDPs,” “This report focuses on presenting summaries of the data collected so far and identification of data fields that will inform future evaluation of cumulative impacts.” The annual report is required by COGCC under a rule enacted in November 2020 that took effect last year. Gov. Jared Polis signed SB 181 into law in April 2019, enabling the COGCC to enact rules to “regulate the development and production of the natural resources of oil and gas in the state of Colorado.” The COGCC prepares the report in consultation with the Colorado Department of Public Health and Environment (CDPHE). The state has since pursued some of the nation’s toughest environmental regulations, including Rule 903, which made it the second state in the country to prohibit routine venting and flaring of natural gas by upstream operators. The report highlights air quality data collected in the most active oil and gas region in the state, the Denver-Julesburg (DJ) Basin. For example, a single well in the DJ was found to produce 0.38 tons/year of methane and 1.37 tons/year of volatile organic compounds, researchers noted. The Greenhouse Gas (GHG) Roadmap included in the report further notes a 2021 GHG analysis published by the Air Pollution Control Division of the CDPHE in September last year. Notable findings from that report showed Colorado’s GHG emissions decreased by 9% between 2005 and 2019. The electric power sector was found to be the largest contributor to GHGs, followed by transportation, then residential, commercial, and industrial fuel combustion, and finally natural gas and oil systems. Natural gas and oil was, however, the largest contributor of methane emissions. The report additionally features some of the innovative technologies and measures used by the oil and natural gas industry to minimize cumulative impacts. They include aerial surveys that monitored methane emissions last July and September. The full 2021 Report on the Evaluation of Cumulative Impacts can be found here.
A quite terrible update on pollution from stripper wells in Colorado (and what you can do about it) - In August last year, we shared video evidence of pollution occurring at oil and gas facilities in CO that produce only minimal amounts of oil and gas. Industry and regulators in Colorado call these operations “stripper wells.” At that time, we had only just begun to focus some of our field investigations into stripper and inactive well sites. What we have discovered since is that the more we investigated these facilities, the more pollution we seemed to find. Since August 2021, we have conducted 105 investigations of oil and gas facilities in Colorado’s Front Range, northwestern Colorado, the North Fork Valley, and the Four Corners region in and around Canyon of the Ancients National Monument. These investigations resulted in us filing 27 complaints with the Air Pollution Control Division (APCD) based on our optical gas imaging (OGI) evidence of pollution. Those complaints contain documentation of pollution due to suspected leaks, malfunctions, negligence, and/or intentional violation of air pollution regulations. Seventeen (17) of our recent complaints were filed on oil and gas facilities that were either producing at minimal levels or were inactive. More specifically, our recent complaints regarding stripper and inactive wells account for 13 of the 16 complaints we filed on pollution from storage tanks. Unfortunately, a number of these polluting tanks are allowed uncontrolled emissions and are not subject to regulatory enforcement. This is due in part to the low production levels of several of the facilities. In Colorado, oil & gas operators are allowed to pollute up to a certain amount without meeting a legal threshold to apply for an air permit. Operators are entrusted to calculate their own pollution estimates, and these estimates are not required to be based on direct measurements of emissions. It is what it seems to be: another potential loophole for chronic polluting oil and gas operators. Here are some examples of what uncontrolled emissions from tanks that are purportedly polluting below pollution thresholds look like:
Biden outpaces Trump in issuing drilling permits on public lands --The widening gulf between the president’s policies on oil, gas and coal extraction and his initial promises has raised questions about his climate goals. After years of federal lease sales to oil, gas and coal companies, environmentalists had hopes that President Biden would end the fossil fuel bonanza. But one year after announcing a halt to any new federal oil and gas leasing, Biden has outpaced Donald Trump in issuing drilling permits on public lands. After setting a record for the largest offshore lease sale last year in the Gulf of Mexico, the Interior Department plans to auction off oil and gas drilling rights on more than 200,000 acres across Western states by the end of March, followed by 1 million acres in the Cook Inlet, off the coast of Alaska.The administration’s actions reveal an uncomfortable truth: Although Biden supports a shift to cleaner sources of energy, he has failed to curb fossil fuel development in the United States. His push to suspend federal oil and gas auctions has run headlong into political and legal challenges, and his administration has offered no plan to address the climate impact of mining in Wyoming’s coal-rich Powder River Basin. Collectively, these activities account for nearly a quarter of the nation’s greenhouse gas emissions. This month, Interior’s Bureau of Land Management indicated it would reverse the Trump administration’s decision to expand oil and gas production on the largest swath of federal land, the National Petroleum Reserve in Alaska — but would allow drilling on half of the reserve. Four days later, lawyers for the federal government declined to defend the Obama administration’s 2016 coal moratorium, which Trump lifted two months after taking office. Instead, they argued that environmentalists’ lawsuit to restore it should be dismissed on technical grounds. Climate activists have expressed dismay at the administration’s actions, questioning how the White House can allow more fossil fuel extraction on public lands, given its commitment to cut U.S. emissions. U.S. District Judge Terry A. Doughty in Louisiana struck down Biden’s Jan. 27, 2021, executive order in June, dealing a major blow to the president’s plans to cut greenhouse gas emissions from fossil fuels. The decision by Doughty, a Trump appointee, highlights the challenge in curbing fossil fuel production when current law directs the government to auction off federal land and many states rely on royalty revenue. The authority to suspend oil and gas leasing lies “solely with Congress,” Doughty wrote. Biden officials said they could be held in contempt if they didn’t resume leasing. Legal challenges have “made it impossible for us to stop many of these leases,” White House press secretary Jen Psaki said during Thursday’s daily briefing.
Nothing Fundamental Has Changed: Biden Administration Greenlights More Fossil Fuel Drilling Permits in 2021 for Public Lands and Waters than Did Trump in 2017 - Let’s examine closely this Common Dreams article from Friday, Biden Outpaced Trump on Drilling Permits in First Year:Despite President Joe Biden’s promise to phase out federal leasing for fossil fuel extraction, his administration approved more permits for oil and gas drilling on public lands in its first year than the Trump administration did in 2017.That’s according to the Center for Biological Diversity’s new analysis of federal datareleased Friday, which shows that the Biden White House rubber-stamped 3,557 permits for oil and gas drilling on public lands in 2021—a 34% increase over former President Donald Trump’s administration, which greenlit 2,658 drilling permits in its first year.Of the drilling authorized by the Biden administration in the past year, almost 2,000 permits were approved for public lands in New Mexico, followed by 843 in Wyoming, 285 in Montana and North Dakota, and 191 in Utah. In California, Biden signed off on 187 permits—more than twice as many as the 71 that Trump approved for drilling on the Golden State’s public lands during his first year in office.“Biden’s runaway drilling approvals are a spectacular failure of climate leadership,” the Center for Biological Diversity’s Taylor McKinnon said Friday in a statement. “Avoiding catastrophic climate change requires ending new fossil fuel extraction, but Biden is racing in the opposite direction.”Now, it seems that Biden initially intended to suspend fossil fuel drilling on public lands. At least he said so, and issued an executive order to implement just such a pledge.But when faced with entirely predictable pushback from Republican attorney generals challenging the policy, the legal whizkids at the Department of Justice essentially rolled over and signed off on the administration approving fossil fuel permits as if Trump had won, rather than lost, the 2020 election. Why do I say “predictable pushback”? Well, because these same AGs have challenged climate change policies in federal court before. Republicans are good at doing that: they’re absolutely ruthless in enacting legal and political initiatives that further their policy goals. So, one might hope that by this stage, Democrats might realize these AGs aren’t going anywhere – and perhaps try to come up with independent fossil fuel policies that aren’t a mere rubber stamp of a drill baby drill agenda. Alas, expecting Democrats to govern effectively – and follow through on implementing a change in climate change policy – is I guess too much to ask. Per Common Dreams for more details:One year ago, Biden issued an executive order suspending new oil and gas leasing. The president’s pause of the federal leasing program was meant to give the U.S. Department of the Interior (DOI) time to conduct a comprehensive review of the “potential climate and other impacts associated with oil and gas activities on public lands or in offshore waters.”However, a group of Republican attorneys general awash in $4.5 million of campaign cash from the fossil fuel lobby sued the Biden administration in March, arguing that its moratorium violated a federal law requiring quarterly lease sales. In June, a Trump-appointed federal judge sided with them and issued a preliminary injunction.While the U.S. Department of Justice challenged the ruling—and ultimately saidin August that the judge’s decision to invalidate the pause does not compel the Biden administration to immediately resume new fossil fuel lease sales—the DOI backed down and took steps to resurrect the then-frozen oil and gas leasing program.In November—just days after Biden professed Washington’s alleged commitment to decarbonization at the COP26 climate summit—the White House held Lease Sale 257, an auction condemned as ecologically irresponsible for offering up 80 million acres of the Gulf of Mexico’s seabed to the highest-bidding oil and gas companies.Despite Biden’s pledge to cut U.S. greenhouse gas emissions in half by the end of this decade, his administration also plans to allow fossil fuel corporations to purchase drilling rights for hundreds of thousands of acres of public lands.
Enbridge Uses Scoring System to Track Indigenous Opposition - AS PART OF its efforts to build and operate pipelines, the oil transport company Enbridge used a tracking system that identified Indigenous-led groups as key threats.Internal documents reviewed by The Intercept describe how Enbridge launched an initiative known as Opposition Driven Operational Threats, or ODOT, to focus the company’s attention on Indigenous opposition to Line 3 and Line 5, two controversial pipelines that transport carbon-intensive tar sands oil between Canada and the United States.The documents provide a rare window into how fossil fuel companies counteract political opposition. In Enbridge’s case, its ODOT initiative goes so far as to track community gatherings of pipeline opponents and label tribal lands as areas where the company faces threats. “To the rest of us, ‘threat’ means actual threats to life and liberty, but to them this is all about how much money they can extract while carrying out an operation that is environmentally devastating,” said Mara Verheyden-Hilliard, director of the Partnership for Civil Justice Fund’s Center for Protest Law and Litigation and an attorney representing opponents of Line 3. “You begin to have this perversion of concepts of what actually are true threats.”Information about how the internal system works is limited, but Verheyden-Hilliard said that there could be civil rights implications depending on whether any state or local agencies are involved in the collection of data for ODOT and how Enbridge uses the information the initiative produces. The existence of the tracking system, she said, was especially troubling considering Enbridge’s payments to law enforcement agencies for policing pipeline opposition. Gatherings of pipeline opponents are protected by the First Amendment. In communities in which tribal governments have invoked their treaty rights to challenge pipeline paths, the tool could potentially be used to develop divisive campaigns aimed at pressuring tribes to back down. Enbridge’s definition of a threat includes virtually anything that could negatively impact the company. ODOT was meant to protect against not only property damage but also reputational harm to the company. A list describing categories of threats included activities that involved trespassing or disruptive protests as well as “awareness events,” which appeared to reference gatherings for pipeline opponents to get their message out. A tribe considering rejecting an Enbridge easement, often by invoking its treaty rights, could also qualify as a threat.The ODOT initiative includes a system that assigns a risk score to geographical areas. One of the factors used to tally the score is “Indigenous Opposition.” Enbridge has used the scores to generate color-coded maps that often identify areas covered by treaty rights as places where the company faces a threat.On the maps, lands of the Red Lake Nation, the Leech Lake Band of Ojibwe, and the Bad River Band of Lake Superior Chippewa — all Upper Midwest tribes that have opposed Enbridge pipelines in court — have been marked in red to indicate a threat area.Through ODOT, the company also tracks individual pipeline opposition groups. To facilitate the monitoring, Enbridge has used a system to count the number and types of “threats” to Enbridge projects carried out by particular “threat actors” over time. In 2021, the counts focused particularly on Line 3 and Line 5, tracking more than a dozen threat actors, including Indigenous-led pipeline resistance groups such as Camp Migizi and the Giniw Collective.
Hess Ramping Up Bakken Production as Oil Demand, Prices Rise - U.S. independent Hess Corp. expects production from its Bakken Shale assets to grow 6-9% in 2022 to 165,000-170,000 boe/d.The New York-based producer is ramping up Bakken activity after adding a third rig last September. Previously it had slashed its rig count from six to one because of the coronavirus pandemic. A fourth rig could potentially come online next year, executives said in an earnings call Wednesday.Bakken net production was 159,000 boe/d in the fourth quarter compared with 189,000 boe/d in the prior-year quarter, primarily due to the impact of lower drilling activity.The company can generate “attractive returns” in the Bakken at $60/bbl for West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil, executives said. They called the Bakken a “cash engine.” In 2022, Hess will drill 90 Bakken wells and bring approximately 85 new wells online.On the call, CEO John Hess highlighted efficiency gains in the face of inflation. In 2021, the firm’s drilling and completion cost per Bakken well averaged $5.8 million, 6% lower than in 2020. Hess sees the company offsetting anticipated inflation “through lean manufacturing and technology driven efficiency gains.” He sees drilling and completion costs remaining flat in 2022. Overall capital expenditures (capex) will be $2.6 billion in 2022, about 80% of which will go to the Bakken and Guyana, Hess said. The capex figure is 37% higher than in 2021.
Vandalism leads to oil well spill near Watford City – A produced water spill at an oil well near Watford City was due to vandalism. North Dakota Oil and Gas Division officials say valves were opened Sunday on the location, leading to a spill of more than 18,000 gallons. Most of the wastewater had been recovered by vacuum trucks. Produced water is a mixture of saltwater and oil that can contain drilling chemicals. It’s a byproduct of oil and gas development. A state inspector has been to the Abraxas Petroleum Corp. site and will monitor required cleanup.
Judge refuses to delay release of disputed DAPL documents - A state district judge on Friday refused to delay the release of thousands of documents related to security during the construction in North Dakota of the heavily protested Dakota Access Pipeline. South Central District Judge Cynthia Feland in late December ruled that the documents are public and subject to the state's open records law. Attorneys for pipeline developer Energy Transfer asked Feland to put on hold the part of her ruling permitting public disclosure of the records while the company appeals to the state Supreme Court. Feland in a Friday ruling gave Energy Transfer the go-ahead to appeal, but she rejected the request to delay the public release of the records, which the company considers “confidential, proprietary, and privileged documents” that shouldn't be made public. Feland wrote that "Energy Transfer provided no specifics and has failed to provide sufficient information to assess the validity of a claim of privilege or exception that would prohibit the disclosure of even a single document within the 16,000 documents that comprised the disputed documents." The ruling is another victory for The Intercept news organization, which sued in November 2020 to get access to the documents for investigative journalism. The documents are being held by the North Dakota Private Investigation and Security Board, which obtained them during a case involving TigerSwan, the North Carolina company that Energy Transfer hired to oversee security during construction. The records later became entangled in three lawsuits involving the Intercept, TigerSwan and Energy Transfer subsidiary Dakota Access LLC.
North Dakota appeals oil and gas royalty rulings to Supreme Court - The North Dakota Supreme Court will again take up a case concerning oil and gas royalties from the development of state-owned minerals. The state Board of University and School Lands has appealed several 2021 rulings from a lower court in a case involving Newfield Exploration Co. that has had implications for numerous other state oil and gas leases. The appeal challenges part of a 2021 law that put a limit on how far back the state can retroactively collect unpaid royalties, and it raises matters surrounding the state's relationship with Newfield. The state previously brought a breach of contract claim against Newfield for underpaying royalties, but Northwest District Judge Robin Schmidt dismissed the matter last fall. She wrote in an order that she could not find a record of a contract between Newfield and the state among the documents included in the litigation. The state is appealing that decision "to ensure stability and add clarity to the issues," Land Commissioner Jodi Smith said in a statement. Smith leads the North Dakota Department of Trust Lands, which is overseen by the five-member Board of University and School Lands chaired by Gov. Doug Burgum. The group better known as the Land Board has been involved in this dispute for several years. The Supreme Court has heard other issues in the case already and released a ruling in 2019 favorable to the state, which has since sought to collect what could amount to hundreds of millions of dollars in unpaid royalties from a number of oil and gas companies. At the center of the original dispute was whether companies such as Newfield could deduct transportation and gathering costs from royalties paid for the development of state-owned minerals. The Land Board's attempts to collect the money have faced significant pushback from the oil and gas industry, which viewed the state's initial efforts as punitive. The industry backed legislation last year that capped the length of time for which the state could seek to collect unpaid royalties at seven years. Schmidt upheld that law after it passed. The Land Board still takes issue with its retroactive applicability, as the law prohibits the state from collecting royalties owed before August 2013. The state is asking the Supreme Court to consider the matter in its appeal. The Department of Trust Lands has estimated that the state will forgo collecting $69.4 million in royalties owed before August 2013 because of the new limit. Royalty money benefits public education through a number of trusts managed by the board and the department.
Santa Barbara Prosecutors Settle Cuyama River Oil Spill Case - In a case of seriously bad timing for ExxonMobil, the Santa Barbara District Attorney’s office just finalized a settlement with the Bakersfield-based trucking company responsible for a 4,500-gallon oil spill into the Cuyama River not far above Twitchell Reservoir nearly two years ago. While the spill hardly qualifies as the biggest in county oil history, it might well be the most politically inopportune. Its settlement announcement comes just a few weeks before the county supervisors are scheduled to decide the fate of ExxonMobil’s proposal to send up to 78 tanker trucks a day from its plant at Las Flores Canyon to a facility in Kern County by way of Highway 166. The spill in question has been seized upon by environmental critics of the plan as Exhibit A in their argument as to why Highway 166 is not a safe route for such an undertaking. The settlement, while relatively modest in terms of dollars and cents, calls attention to the proposal’s most evident weakness and will make it that much harder for ExxonMobil to garner the votes necessary to reopen its Gaviota plant. Based on the settlement agreement, Golden Valley Transfer Company has agreed to pay $111,326 to the California Department of Fish and Wildlife to help restore the stretch of riverbed contaminated when an oil tanker driven by one of the company drivers — Jesse Villasana — lost control of his rig in the early morning hours of March 21, 2020, while heading into a curve while driving at what prosecutors characterize as “unsafe speed.” In addition, the company will pay a fine of $88,674. Beyond that, the company had already spent $314,320 in cleanup costs. And that doesn’t count the fine imposed last February by the Environmental Protection Agency. As for the driver, Villasana, he’s been fined $515 for his role in the accident. He will also serve a year on probation. During that time, he must perform 20 hours of community service for an environmental organization.
Los Angeles to Prohibit Oil, Natural Gas Drilling, Phase Out Existing Production - The Los Angeles (LA) City Council on Wednesday unanimously approved a motion to prohibit drilling new oil and gas wells, phase out production from existing wells, and establish a plan for plugging and remediating all wells in the city. The city has a total of 5,229 oil wells, including 296 that are idle and the majority within 2,500 feet of homes, schools and hospitals, according to Elected Officials to Protect America (EOPA), an environmental group that supported the measure. “Oil drilling is and has always been an inherently incompatible land use with neighborhoods and schools and hospitals and homes,” said Councilmember Paul Koretz, a co-author of the original motion. “No one should have to wake up in her own bed with a nosebleed caused by toxic oil drilling chemicals. Nor with cancer caused by the same. That said, we must also ensure the affected workers have a secure working future. Today’s item will take care of both.” The motion directs the Department of City Planning (DCP) to draft an ordinance to ban new oil and gas extraction, and to make existing wells a nonconforming land use in all areas of the city. The council also is directing DCP to commission a study to establish a timeline for the phaseout of existing operations. To help ensure an equitable transition for impacted oil and gas workers, the council is directing DCP and to participate in Los Angeles County’s Just Transition Taskforce, EOPA highlighted. Martinez also introduced a motion to create a job quality stabilization program to ensure oil and gas workers can transition to clean energy jobs “while retaining their wages and benefits.” According to EOPA, more than 580,000 Los Angeles residents live within one-quarter mile of a productive oil and gas well.“On behalf of 430 elected officials from 49 counties working to phase out dangerous oil and gas drilling, EOPA California congratulates the LA City Council for their bold leadership to phase out and end the pumping of dirty fossil fuels that continue to devastate communities of color with toxic pollutants that can lead to premature death,” said EOPA’s Dominic Frongillo, executive director. “EOPA California is working statewide to do the same as California transitions with a just transition for workers to a 100%clean energy future.”Upstream operations in Los Angeles include the Inglewood Oil Field operated by Sentinel Peak Resources California LLC. The asset is “the largest contiguous urban oil field in the U.S., with more than one million people living within five miles of the site,” said EOPA, noting that jurisdiction of the field is split between Culver City and LA County. Gov. Gavin Newsom has called for the state to stop issuing new drilling permits by 2024 and to phase out oil and gas extraction entirely by 2045. In October, state regulators launched a proposal to prohibit new wells and facilities within a 3,200-foot exclusion area, or setback, from homes, schools, hospitals, nursing homes and other “sensitive” locations.
Los Angeles bans new oil and gas wells and will phase out old ones over five years - The Los Angeles City Council on Wednesday voted to ban new oil and gas wells and to phase out existing wells over a period of five years, following decades of complaints by residents who have grappled with health problems from living near drilling sites. The measure, introduced by Council members Nury Martinez and Paul Krekorian in December 2020, is part of a broader push by the county and the state of California to establish more distance between drilling and people and transition away from climate-changing fossil fuels. The region includes one of the largest urban oil fields in the country, with more than 5,000 active wells in LA County and more than 1,000 active or idle wells within city limits. More than half a million people in LA live within a quarter-mile of active wells that release air pollutants like benzene, hydrogen sulfide, particulate matter and formaldehyde, and the pollution disproportionately affects Black and Latino residents. "Today, we are reinforcing our commitment to environmental justice," Martinez said during a news conference on Wednesday morning. "For far too long, neighborhood drilling has disproportionally affected the health of our low-income communities of color," Martinez said. "From freeways to power plants, our frontline communities bear the brunt of pollution and climate impacts." Research shows that people who live near oil and gas drilling sites are at greater risk of preterm births, asthma, respiratory disease and cancer. Living close to wells is also linked to weakened lung function and wheezing, according to a study published in the journal Environmental Research. "This is not just a matter of public health and safety … it's also a matter of justice," Jasmin Vargas, a senior organizer at the nonprofit Food & Water Watch, told council members before the vote. "I think this day has been a long time coming." Oil tanks wedged between homes in the Wilmington neighborhood of Los Angeles. Emma Newburger | CNBC The oil and gas industry has strongly opposed such measures, arguing that banning and phasing out oil and gas will hike gas prices and harm jobs. Supporters have urged that the city must ensure that fossil fuel jobs are replaced with clean energy jobs. Rock Zierman, chief executive officer of the California Independent Petroleum Association, an industry group representing nearly 400 oil and gas companies, said the measure would essentially be "taking someone's property without compensation, particularly one which is duly permitted and highly regulated." "Shutting down domestic energy production not only puts Californians out of work and reduces taxes that pay for vital services, but it makes us more dependent on imported foreign oil from Saudi Arabia and Iraq that is tankered into LA's crowded port," Zierman wrote in an email to CNBC.
Quebec Indigenous groups join Questerre Energy in push for natural gas development - Questerre Energy Corp. QEC-T has gained additional First Nations support for its push to develop what it calls a “zero-emissions” natural gas hub in Quebec, ahead of a looming ban by the province on any future oil and gas development. The Indian Resource Council of Canada (IRC), an organization representing more than 130 First Nations that produce energy or have direct interests in the energy industry, issued a statement of support late Wednesday for the proposed project. The hub would be located near Bécancour, Que., on land the Abenaki First Nation of Wolinak considers its traditional territory. The Abenakis last week announced a preliminary deal with Calgary-based Questerre that would give them a share of the profits from development on the land. The Abenakis would also have an opportunity to acquire a working interest in Questerre’s exploration licences and participate in future development. “This project has the full support of the Abenakis and offers innovative solutions to reducing emissions while providing an affordable and reliable source of energy to the market,” IRC president Stephen Buffalo said. “The current proposed ban by the Government of Quebec on oil and gas development is a clear violation of Aboriginal and treaty rights and the IRC will do everything it can to support the Abenakis.” The move by Indigenous groups to back the proposal raises the stakes for Quebec Premier François Legault, whose government is readying new legislation that will put the hydrocarbon development ban into effect. The Premier, who faces an election in October, may be forced to consider whether boosting his environmental credibility is worth roiling First Nations as they try to raise own-source revenue for their communities. Resource estimates suggest Quebec has enough natural gas to meet its own needs for several decades, most of it concentrated in the province’s portion of the Utica shale formation along the southern flank of the St. Lawrence River, in and around the Bécancour region. Early efforts to access the gas, using a technique that fractured the underlying rock, met with significant public opposition. The majority of the deposits remain untapped. Questerre holds the licence rights to more than one million gross acres of farmland in the province. The company’s efforts to develop natural gas projects have been repeatedly thwarted by government moratoriums. Rather than exit the province, Questerre has continued trying to convince decision-makers that it can adopt new production methods that mesh with Quebec’s environmental goals.
'Lack of understanding': Trump's former energy secretary slams Biden's plans to divert gas to Europe - Former U.S. Energy Secretary Rick Perry on Wednesday sharply criticized the Biden administration's contingency plans in the event that Russia cuts off its gas supplies to Europe. His comments come amid growing fears of a potential Russian incursion into Ukraine. President Joe Biden's administration has sought ways to secure energy supplies for European allies in the event that the Kremlin abruptly cuts off flows of oil and gas exports in retaliation for sanctions. "Governments have a really hard time manipulating markets, and I think that's what you're seeing here," Perry told CNBC's Hadley Gamble on Wednesday. The former Texas governor stood down from his role as former President Donald Trump's top energy official in December 2019. "Biden's decision to get on the phone and call around and say: 'Hey, will you guys crank up your LNG exports?' It just doesn't work that way," Perry said, referring to liquefied natural gas. "I think that is the sadness of this administration. Either their lack of understanding of just pure economics or their naivety when it comes to the decisions that they've made about the energy sector [and] about climate change," he added. A spokesperson for the White House was not immediately available to comment when contacted by CNBC. A senior administration official, who declined to be named in order to share details of ongoing plans, said on a call with reporters on Tuesday that the U.S. had been in talks with major natural gas producers to better understand whether they would be prepared to temporarily allocate natural gas supplies to European buyers. A second senior administration official warned the prospect of Russia's weaponization of natural gas or crude oil exports "wouldn't be without consequences to the Russian economy." Western leaders have repeatedly warned Russian President Vladimir Putin that the Kremlin would face a heavy price for invasion.Biden said on Tuesday that he would consider imposing personal sanctions on Putin himself in the event of a war, saying the effects of a possible invasion "would change the world." Russia has amassed an estimated 100,000 troops near the border of Ukraine but denies planning to enter the former Soviet republic.
Dutch industrial gas use down by nearly 100 GWh/d The Netherlands' industrial gas demand in the first two weeks of 2022 was almost 100 GWh/d lower than a year earlier, as companies may have continued to limit production in response to high prices. Combined industrial gas use was about 874TJ — equivalent to about 243 GWh/d — on 3-16 January, the first two full weeks of the new year, data from statistics office CBS Statline show. This was down from 339 GWh/d in weeks 1 and 2 of 2021. The data include consumption from large industrial consumers connected directly to the national transmission system but excludes power plants. Industrial demand fell to just 229 GWh/d on 27 December-2 January, the lowest for any week since at least the start of 2019. This may have been partly because of reduced economic activity following the Christmas holidays and over the New Year holiday period. But the decline at the end of 2021 compared with earlier in December was much more pronounced than in previous years. A renewed rally in European gas hub prices in mid-December may have resulted in some companies continuing to minimise or again turning down production. Some firms, such as fertilizer producers Yara and OCI, turned down production at their Dutch sites in autumn in response to high gas prices. Yara in early December said most of its ammonia production, including that in the Netherlands, was "back on stream or preparing to start up". But this was before gas hub prices climbed to fresh historic highs in mid-December in response to low storage inventories, slow Russian deliveries to Europe and French nuclear shutdowns. Gas prices slipped considerably in late December-early January because of a flurry of LNG tankers turning towards Europe where prices had opened wide premiums to traditional LNG premium markets in northeast Asia. But OCI was still running only one of its two ammonia units at Geleen in mid-January because of high gas prices and other producers may have also reduced output. And while gas use in the chemicals industry — the sector with by far the largest gas consumption — showed signs of recovery in early December, this has stalled in recent weeks. The sector's gas consumption of 125 GWh/d in the first two weeks of this year was still well above the lows of just over 100 GWh/d that it reached in mid-October, but was considerably below the 137 GWh/d it had reached by mid-December. And it was 35 GWh/d lower than the 160 GWh/d registered in weeks 1 and 2 last year. Gas use by the petroleum industry — which in recent months has fallen the most in percentage terms — has continued to slide. The sector's consumption of 16 GWh/d in the first two weeks of this year was only just over a third of the 47 GWh/d in weeks 1 and 2 last year.
Mideast would struggle to cover Russian oil loss -Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and Iraq would struggle to cover the shortfall in crude supply created by a blanket ban on Russian energy exports as they have already allocated their annual term supplies, according to sources close to the matter.Although trading sources say the ensuing European energy crisis will probably steer officials in Brussels and Washington away from strict energy sector sanctions in the event of a Russian invasion of Ukraine, EU foreign ministers and the White House have been deliberating potential retaliatory measures against Moscow should it proceed with military action, and the US has hinted that Russian oil and gas could be included.A blanket ban on Russian oil exports would severely curtail the availability of sour crude at a time when similar-quality supplies from Iran and Venezuela are also subject to sanctions. Russia exports up to 1.5mn b/d of Urals crude from Baltic Sea ports, another 400,000 b/d from the Black Sea terminal at Novorossiysk and up to 800,000 b/d by pipeline to central and eastern Europe.Mideast Gulf producers have comparable quality crude, and Saudi Arabia's Saudi Aramco and Iraq's Somo operate term supply contracts in Europe. Kuwaiti counterpart KPC also sends some limited volumes to the region. But Mideast Gulf sources warn that these three companies would have little room to cover a spike in sour crude demand in Europe in the event of a total embargo on Russian oil, given that they have committed most of their 2022 supplies via term agreements.Aramco, Somo and KPC typically negotiate their annual contracts between late October and early December in the year before loading. Contract volumes depend on producers' projections of their overall output and domestic requirements. Existing term customers can nominate crude in excess of their contracts, but approving such requests is at the discretion of Aramco, Somo and KPC. Vortexa data indicate that seaborne deliveries of Saudi, Kuwaiti and Iraqi crude to northwest Europe and the Mediterranean — including Iraqi exports marketed by the semi-autonomous Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) — stood at a combined 932,000 b/d last year. All three have a much more significant foothold in Asia-Pacific.Iraq, Kuwait and notably Saudi Arabia have spare production capacity that could be deployed. Their output, as well as Russia's, is currently restricted by the ongoing Opec+ output restraint agreement, but the group might reconsider the pace at which it increases production this year if sanctions are placed on Russian crude. Opec+ delegates acknowledge that the standoff over Ukraine may be contributing to the current oil price rally.
Peru declares environmental emergency in area fouled by oil spill following Tonga volcano eruption - Peru declared an environmental emergency Saturday to battle an oil spill caused by freak waves from a volcanic eruption in the South Pacific. The stunningly powerful eruption last Saturday of an undersea volcano near Tonga unleashed tsunami waves around the Pacific and as far away as the United States. In Peru, the oil spill near Lima has fouled beaches, killed birds and harmed the fishing and tourism industries. With its 90-day decree, the government said it plans "sustainable management" of 21 beaches tarred by 6,000 barrels of oil that spilled from a tanker ship unloading at a refinery last Saturday. One aim of the decree is to better organise the various agencies and teams working in the aftermath of the disaster, said the environment ministry. Foreign Trade and Tourism Minister Roberto Sanchez estimated Saturday that economic losses total more than $50 million, all sectors combined. The government is demanding payment of damages from the Spanish energy giant Repsol which owns the refinery. The environment ministry said 174 hectares – equivalent to 270 football fields – of sea, beaches and natural reserves were affected by the spill. Crews have been working for days to clean up the spill. But the ministry said it issued the emergency decree because the crude still in the water was still spreading, reaching 40 kilometers (25 miles) from the spot of the original spill. The environment ministry said "the spill amounts to a sudden event of significant impact on the coastal marine ecosystem, which has major biological diversity." It said that over the short term, Repsol is responsible for emergency cleanup operations. The refinery is in the town of Ventanilla near Lima. Repsol has said the spill occurred because of the freak waves caused by the eruption. The company has argued that it is not responsible for the spill, however, because it says the government gave no warning that there might be rough waters from that undersea blast. On Saturday, Repsol issued a statement outlining the cleanup operation by 1,350 people using big-rig trucks, skimmers, floating containment barriers and other equipment. Repsol said it is "deploying all efforts to attend to the remediation of the spill." In addition to the fishing industry, Peru's tourism sector has taken a major blow, including everything from restaurants, to beach umbrella rentals to food and beverage sales by vendors. "In a normal season, between January and March (during Peru's summer) five million people visit the affected beaches. The economic loss is immense," Sanchez said, adding that thousands of jobs had been affected and the tourism sector "mortally wounded."
Tonga Volcanic Eruption: Peru Races To Save Seabirds After 6,000-Barrel Oil Spill Poisons Beaches - Peru has declared an environmental emergency after almost 264,000 gallons of crude oil spilled into the sea when a tanker was hit by big waves while offloading at a refinery. A Lima zoo is racing to save dozens of seabirds, including protected penguins, after 6,000 barrels of crude oil spilled off Peru's coast due to waves from a volcanic eruption in the South Pacific. More than 40 birds, including Humboldt penguins -- listed as vulnerable by the International Union for Conservation of Nature -- were brought to the Parque de Las Leyendas zoo after being rescued from polluted beaches and nature reserves. "We have never seen anything like this in the history of Peru," biologist Liseth Bermudez told AFP, while tending to a bird. "We didn't think it was going to be of this magnitude." A team of veterinarians is caring for the birds, bathing them with special detergents to remove the suffocating oil. The animals have also been given anti-fungal and anti-bacterial drugs, as well as vitamins. "The birds' prognosis is unclear," Bermudez said. "We are doing everything we can." Peru has declared an environmental emergency after almost 264,000 gallons (1.2 million liters) of crude oil spilled into the sea last Saturday when a tanker was hit by big waves while offloading at a refinery. The abnormally large waves were triggered by the eruption of an undersea volcano near the archipelago of Tonga, thousands of miles (kilometers) away. The spill near Lima has fouled beaches and harmed the fishing and tourism industries, with crews working non-stop to clean up the mess. The environment ministry said Sunday that more than 180 hectares -- equivalent to around 270 soccer fields -- of beach and 713 hectares of sea were affected, as sea currents spread the spilled oil along the coast. The health ministry has warned would-be bathers to stay away from at least 21 affected beaches. Biologist Guillermo Ramos of Peru's Serfor forestry service said more animals will die if the oil spreads. "There are species here that feed on crustaceans and fish that are already contaminated," he said. Serfor staff have found many dead birds and sea otters on beaches and in natural reserves since the spill, he added. More than 150 bird species in Peru depend on the sea for nutrition and reproduction. Among the birds rescued alive but in need of help are different types of cormorants and six Humboldt penguins. Juan Carlos Riveros, scientific director of rescue NGO Oceana Peru, said the oil could affect the reproductive capacity of some animals and cause birth defects, especially in birds, fish and turtles.
Repsol hopes to move forward quickly to clean up Peru oil spill - .- Spain’s Repsol oil company on Tuesday confirmed that it is “collaborating closely” with Peruvian authorities and civil society “to move forward as quickly as possible on addressing the areas affected by the petroleum spill” that occurred on Jan. 15 off the coast of Lima. The petroleum firm said in a statement that it is “in continuous contact with the communities affected” by the spill “to understand their needs and provide them with the support they need.” In addition to these initiatives, the firm said it is pursuing “other proposals in accord with the requirements that may contribute to achieving long-term agreements.” Repsol also said that it has “intensified cooperation” with the Lima “Park of Legends” zoo, where the animals that have been rescued from amid the floating oil are being housed and cared for. The company also said that it has held meetings with Energy and Mines Minister Eduardo Gonzalez Toro and with the Environmental Assessment and Control Agency (OEFA) to report on the advances made “in all areas of activity” regarding the emergency. “Repsol is sending information daily to the Environment Ministry and communicating to OEFA on the progress on the timetable presented to the authorities, which forecasts the conclusion of clean-up work by the end of February.” In that regard, the firm said that currently more than 2,200 people are participating in cleaning up the ocean waters and the Peruvian coast, and they have been joined by 300 members of the Peruvian armed forces with another 225 people to be added on Tuesday. Involved in these activities are 73 pieces of heavy machinery, nine skimmers for cleaning the ocean waters, 27 large vessels, 90 small vessels and nine floating tanks. Moreover, the firm has installed containment barriers in the water extending 4.44 kilometers (2.75 miles) between the Cavero and Faro Chancay beaches. So far, a total of 10,386 cubic meters (some 367,000 cubic feet) of oil-saturated sand, equivalent to more than 2,000 containers, has been recovered and is being treated to remove the oil so that ultimately it can be returned to the beaches. After stating that it will continue with “ongoing monitoring actions by land, sea and air,” Repsol added that its commitment to the clean-up project “is absolute, as well as (the firm’s) support for the public and attention to the wildlife.” On Jan. 15, some 6,000 barrels of crude oil spilled into the ocean off the Peruvian capital from a vessel that was unloading petroleum into the pipelines at the La Pampilla refinery, which Repsol operates, and over the subsequent days the spill spread over more than 1.8 square km (about 0.7 sq. miles) along the coast and 7.1 sq. km (2.75 sq. mi.) of ocean off Lima and the province of Callao.
Nigeria: Bonga Oil Spill Victims Urge Shell to Pay $3.4bn NOSDRA Fine - Victims of the 2011 Bonga oil spill have demanded that Shell Nigeria Exploration and Production Company (SNEPCO) should immediately pay the sum of $3.4billion fines and awards to them as imposed by the National Oil Spill Detection and Response Agency (NOSDRA). The victims, under the auspices of the Artisan Fishermen Association of Nigeria (AFRAN), Niger Delta Chapter, in a communique issued at the end of their New Year review and agenda-setting meeting in Port Harcourt, insisted that the fine and awards were upheld both by the National Assembly through the House Committee on Environment and the Federal High Court. The communique, which was signed by Chairman, AFRAN Niger Delta Chapter, Pastor Samuel Ayadi and three others, said the Bonga oil spill led to the untimely death of many of the members of the association as a result of the attitude of Shell subsidiary towards the victims. It reads in part: "The Shell Bonga Oil Spill of 20th December, 2011 and the consequent stay away order made by NOSDRA to save the lives of Nigerians especially the fishermen has foisted great hardship on the fishermen plying their livelihoods sustenance trade on the coastal waters. This hardship which has led to the untimely death of many of the members of the Association is as a result of the attitude of Shell towards the victims. "That Shell never empathised with the victims even during the height of the spill impacts even when it had been determined through a Post Impact Assessment that the spill was as a result of operational failures and an estimated 40,000 barrels of crude oil had been pumped into the waters - operational fields of the fishermen/women." "We demand on behalf of all the victims of the Shell (SNEPCO) Bonga Oil Spill which is rated globally as one of the most devastating, that Shell pay immediately the fines/awards of $3.4billion imposed on it by the National Oil Spill Detection and Response Agency (NOSDRA) which fines/awards were upheld both by the National Assembly through the House Committee on Environment and a competent court of the land -the Federal High Court in Lagos. "We demand that should Shell want to appeal against the judgment of the Federal High Court, Lagos, they should show good faith by first lodging the judgment sum with the Registry of the Federal High Court."
Navy to keep eye on oil spill - The Royal Thai Navy has been instructed to expedite the monitoring of an oil spill in the Gulf of Thailand after a tanker carrying 500,000 litres of diesel oil sank on Saturday. VAdm Pokkrong Monthatphalin, spokesman for the navy, yesterday said the First Naval Area Command was told about a sunken vessel, Por Andaman 2, 24 nautical miles off Chumpon province about 7.15pm that day. He said VAdm Pichai Lorchusakul, commander of the First Naval Area, had instructed a fleet of 114 patrol boats and flying units to examine an oil spill that could affect residents living along coastal areas. Multiple markers were placed around the oil spill area to establish a safe perimeter. Each unit of the navy has been instructed to support the Marine Department's clean-up efforts and retrieve the sunken ship, as well as warn residents about the oil spill, he said. The sunken ship's captain, identified as Wayu Moryadee, and five other crewmen were rescued by a fuelling vessel, he said. Thai Laemthong Fishery Oil Trade Co Ltd, owner of the sunken ship, has been notified about the incident and is prepared to help clean up the spill, he said. After the spillage is cleaned, the company must be ready to retrieve the sunken ship and work with the navy to check the safety of its other vessels, he said. An initial probe showed strong winds and rough waters caused the ship's flooding, he said, adding the crew failed to pump the water out and the ship sank, leaking diesel oil in the area. As diesel oil is light and thin, it can naturally decompose, he said.
Thailand rushes to contain oil spill after undersea leak - Thailand's navy and pollution experts battled Thursday to clear up an oil spill close to pristine holiday beaches, after an undersea pipeline leaked up to 50 tonnes of crude. The kingdom's Pollution Control Department has warned that the spill in the Gulf of Thailand, about 20 kilometres (12 miles) off the coast of Rayong province, could threaten a national park in nearby Ko Samet island. Weak currents have kept the oil away from coastal areas and there has been no reported impact on marine life or seafood farming, officials said. Star Petroleum Refining Public Company Limited, which operates the pipeline, said the spill volume was between 20 and 50 tonnes—around 22,000 to 60,000 litres. The company said divers had found a failure in a flexible hose that formed part of the undersea equipment around a single point mooring—a floating buoy used to offload oil from tankers. The Pollution Control Department and other experts are assessing what type of dispersants to use on the spill, officials said at a joint news conference with the navy and other agencies. A pipeline leak in the same area in 2013 led to a major slick that coated a beach on Ko Samet, leaving recovery workers in protective suits to clear up the blackened sand.
China's crude oil output rises in 2021 - China's crude oil output reached nearly 199 million tonnes last year, up 2.4 percent from the previous year, official data showed. The volume represented a 4-percent increase from the 2019 level, according to data from the National Bureau of Statistics. In December alone, 16.47 million tonnes of crude oil was produced in the country, up 1.7 percent year on year. Last year, China's import of crude oil neared 513 million tonnes, 5.4 percent lower than the previous year, the data showed.
Stand-alone natural gas wells driving new growth in Saudi Arabia’s natural gas production Saudi Arabia’s dry natural gas production reached an average of 11 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) for the first time in 2020, a 30% increase from 2010. Oil production cuts related to the December 2016 OPEC+ agreement have reduced Saudi Arabia’s associated natural gas production (natural gas produced as a by-product of oil production). However, the country’s total natural gas output has steadily grown over the past two decades because of the development of non-associated, or stand-alone, natural gas fields. Natural gas produced from non-associated gas fields in Saudi Arabia increased from nothing in 2000 to 46% of total production in 2020. In 2016, Saudi Aramco, the national oil company, began to prioritize the development of non-associated gas fields, located mostly offshore. Saudi Aramco’s strategy includes plans to develop more non-associated natural gas, including unconventional resources, and to further expand natural gas reserves with new reservoirs near existing fields and new discoveries to help meet growing domestic demand. Saudi Arabia’s proved natural gas reserves totaled 333 trillion cubic feet (Tcf) as of January 2021, including those in an area shared with Kuwait known as the Neutral Zone. Saudi Arabia was the sixth-largest natural gas producer in the world behind Russia, Iran, Qatar, the United States, and Turkmenistan in 2020. At the end of 2021, Saudi Aramco awarded contracts to energy companies to develop the country’s largest unconventional field, Jafurah, located to the east of Ghawar oil field near the Persian Gulf. The company expects the Jafurah project to begin production in 2025. Saudi Aramco expects that by 2030, the project will have a maximum capacity of 2 Bcf/d of dry natural gas, 418 million cubic feet per day (MMcf/d) of ethane, and 630,000 barrels per day of condensate. Saudi Arabia does not import or export natural gas, but it expects to begin exporting natural gas by 2030. The government of Saudi Arabia also plans to replace its crude oil, fuel oil, and diesel-powered electric generators with natural gas and renewable energy generation by 2030, which will likely increase domestic natural gas demand. Replacing crude oil with natural gas-fired generation in the electric power sector could make more crude oil in Saudi Arabia available for export. Saudi Arabia has extensive natural gas infrastructure that can capture, process, and transport natural gas to the country’s demand centers. However, the western and southern regions lack sufficient natural pipeline capacity from the eastern fields, where most of the country’s production is located. Saudi Aramco intends to expand its natural gas pipeline capacity along the southwest coast of the country from 9.6 Bcf/d to 12.5 Bcf/d, but it has not announced a completion date yet.
Saudi Aramco sees oil demand near pre-pandemic levels--Saudi Aramco said demand for oil is nearing pre-Covid levels and reiterated that producers globally are investing too little in supply. “We are getting very close to pre-pandemic levels,” Chief Executive Officer Amin Nasser told reporters on Monday in Dhahran, where the world’s biggest oil company is based. “We continue to see healthy demand in the future.” Consumption of crude crashed from around 100 million barrels a day in early 2020 as the coronavirus pandemic spread, shutting down factories and triggering mass lockdowns. The International Energy Agency, which advises rich countries, said it was back to almost 98 million barrels daily as of September. Oil prices have surged 13% this year to more than $85 a barrel as demand continues to recover and the omicron variant of the virus proves less damaging economically than many traders first feared. At the same time, spare supply capacity is dwindling as several major producers struggle to boost output. There’s no sign yet that rising prices are causing consumers to cut back on oil, Nasser said. He and Saudi Arabian officials have previously warned that crude could climb even more if Western governments and energy companies pull back from fossil fuels too quickly. Persian Gulf countries are among the few still spending billions of dollars to increase their output. Saudi Arabia plans to raise its daily crude-production capacity to 13 million barrels from 12 million by 2027.
Opec+ oil producers with spare capacity have upper hand in a reshuffle of 2019 quotas - Oil prices have made a strong start to the year. Opening December below $66 per barrel, Brent crude reached $75 by New Year and touched $89.50 on Thursday. $100 seems within sight and the ability of Opec+ to respond is crucial. The International Energy Agency raised its demand forecasts for this year by nearly 200,000 barrels per day. Both the IEA and Opec grew more sanguine that the economic impact of the Omicron coronavirus variant would be limited. Yet in December, production from group members bound by cuts grew 300,000 bpd, less than the planned 400,000 bpd increase. Overall output is now 650,000-790,000 bpd under the target. Most of the shortfall comes from Angola and Nigeria, the perennial laggards. After a temporary gain in December, exports from Angola’s mature fields are expected to see a further decline of about 100,000 bpd by February. Nigeria also suffers from underinvestment and pandemic-related maintenance shortfalls, as well as endemic unrest, sabotage and theft from pipelines. Algeria was on target in December, but its capacity is slowly declining. But as allocations steadily increase, more and more countries hit their practical ceilings. On the IEA’s figures, Kuwait will probably reach its maximum later this year, and Iraq will be nearing it. The UAE foresaw this problem back in July, when it asked for its baseline production – from which cuts are calculated – to be raised to 3.8 million bpd from 3.168. The UAE Minister of Energy and Infrastructure, Suhail Al Mazrouei, revealed in June 2020 that the country’s capacity was 4.2 million bpd, and it will have increased since then as efforts continue towards a goal of 5 million bpd by 2030. Eventually a compromise was reached, with the baseline set at 3.5 million bpd from this May, and other countries’ allowances also adjusted, notably Russia and Saudi Arabia, who were both awarded 11.5 million bpd. That will speed up production increases – but only for those countries who can deliver. Russia, by far the dominant member of the non-Opec contingent, produced 9.95 million bpd in December, a little below its allowable level, and clearly far under its baseline. It seems to have mostly exhausted its spare capacity, the number of shut-in wells having fallen back to pre-pandemic levels. Additional production gains depend on drilling new wells, a slower process. Instead of restoring its allowed 100,000 bpd each month, the country may manage about 50,000-60,000 bpd.Because of field maturity, production is declining in nearly all the smaller members, and this trend is unlikely to be reversed in the near term. Collectively the Republic of Congo, Gabon, Equatorial Guinea, Sudan, South Sudan, Azerbaijan, Malaysia, Bahrain and Brunei yielded 200,000 bpd lower in December than their allowable level from October.
Oil bulls encouraged by low inventories: Kemp - (Reuters) - Portfolio investors added to their bullish positions in petroleum for the fifth week running as the worst of the latest wave of coronavirus infections passed and governments began to lift restrictions on business and travel. Hedge funds and other money managers purchased the equivalent of 33 million barrels of futures and options in the six most important petroleum-related contracts in the week to Jan. 18. Fund managers have purchased a total of 217 million barrels since Dec. 14, after earlier selling 327 million barrels since Oct. 5, amid mounting fears about the impact of the Omicron variant (https://tmsnrt.rs/3Io5azw). Bullish long positions outnumbered bearish short ones by a ratio of 6.24:1 (in the 80th percentile for all weeks since 2013) last week, up from 3.83:1 (47th percentile) five weeks earlier. The adjustment came from the creation of fresh bullish long positions (+38 million barrels), but new bearish shorts were also established (+5 million) as a few investors anticipated a reversal of the recent rally. In the most recent week, funds purchased NYMEX and ICE WTI (+23 million barrels), European gas oil (+8 million) and U.S. gasoline (+3 million), with no change in U.S. diesel, and small sales in Brent (-2 million). Crude inventories around the NYMEX WTI delivery point at Cushing in Oklahoma are at less than 34 million barrels, down from 41 million in 2019, and the lowest for the time of year since 2012. U.S. inventories of distillate fuel oil are at just 128 million barrels, down from 142 million at this time in 2019, and the lowest since 2014. Reflecting the shortage of petroleum, the front-month NYMEX WTI futures contract has been trading above $85 per barrel at the highest level since 2014. Short-term scarcity has pushed prices for crude delivered in March to around $5.50 per barrel higher than for deliveries deferred until September. Hedge fund managers have anticipated, accelerated and amplified the expected shortage of oil and resulting rise in prices by building large a bullish long position. As their position becomes more lopsided, the risks of reversal have increased, with bullishness almost as high as in October, before the last reversal. But there has been little profit-taking so far, or signs of renewed short-selling, which suggests most funds still see price risks tilted to the upside.
Oil Prices Rise On Supply Fears - Oil prices rose slightly on Monday amid fading Omicron fears and lingering concerns over tightening supplies on the back of geopolitical tensions in Eastern Europe and the Middle East. Brent crude futures for April delivery rose 27 cents, or 0.3 percent, to $87.35 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures for March settlement were up 27 cents, or 0.3 percent, at $85.41. Both crude benchmarks rose for a fifth week in a row last week amid demand optimism and signs of dwindling supplies. The World Health Organization (WHO) has for the first time in a while indicated that the pandemic could come to an 'end' in Europe after the current Omicron-driven wave passes over. The U.S. State Department announced Sunday evening it would reduce staff levels at the U.S. Embassy in Kyiv, Ukraine, beginning with the departure of nonessential staff and family members due to the threat of military action from Russia. In the Middle East, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) government has ordered to stop all flying operations of private drones and light sports aircraft in the Gulf country for a month, following a deadly drone attack last week by Yemen's Houthis on the Gulf country. Also, OPEC and its allies continued to struggle to raise their output in line with targets, helping keep sentiment in the oil market bullish.
Oil prices drop as investors brace for interest rate hikes -- Oil prices fell around three per cent on Monday, with both major benchmarks hit by the possibility of quicker than expected interest-rate hikes from the Federal Reserve. Analysts widely anticipate a bump in interest rates from the current level of 0-0.25 per cent over the coming weeks, which has proven a major headwind to sustained market rallies in recent weeks. Brent Crude has dropped to $85.46 per barrel, with prices plummeting 2.76 per cent while WTI has fallen by over three per cent to $82.43. Prices initially rallied this morning amid heightened political tensions between Russia-Ukraine, but faded as grim news arrived of a looming spike in interest rates. Nevertheless, the two benchmarks are up 10 per cent this year, but hopes of prices reaching $100 have dampened as the US has rebuilt its oil inventories, offsetting shortfalls from OPEC and its allies in recent months.
Oil falls 2% as Fed rate hike talk spooks risk markets - Oil prices fell on Monday, hit by a stronger dollar and investor concerns over the possibility of quicker than expected increases to interest rates by the U.S. Federal Reserve. Brent crude fell $1.62, or 1.8%, to end the day at $86.27 per barrel. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude settled 2.15% lower, or $1.83, at $83.31 per barrel. The dollar rose to a two-week high on Monday against a basket of currencies, lifted by the tension between Russia and the West over Ukraine and the possibility of a more hawkish stance from the Fed this week. Brent had risen more than a $1 earlier in the session on concerns over tight supplies and elevated geopolitical risks in Europe and Middle East. Further escalation of the situation in both Ukraine and the Middle East "justify a risk premium on the oil price because the countries involved – Russia and the UAE – are important members of OPEC+", said Commerzbank analyst Carsten Fritsch. Tensions in Ukraine have been increasing for months after Russia massed troops near its borders, fuelling fears of supply disruption in Eastern Europe. In the Middle East, the United Arab Emirates intercepted and destroyed two Houthi ballistic missiles targeting the Gulf country on Monday after a deadly attack a week earlier. Barclays, meanwhile, has raised its average oil price forecasts by $5 a barrel for this year, citing shrinking spare capacity and elevated geopolitical risks. The bank raised its 2022 average price forecasts to $85 and $82 a barrel for Brent and WTI respectively. Both benchmarks rose for a fifth week in a row last week, gaining about 2% to reach their highest since October 2014. Oil prices are up more than 10% this year on the concerns over tightening supplies and OPEC+ now struggling to hit a targeted monthly output increase of 400,000 barrels per day.
Oil Off Lows on Tighter Supplies -- Following a sharp selloff triggered by a surging U.S. dollar and volatility in stock markets, oil futures bounced higher in overnight activity to trade little changed, supported by prospects of short-term supply scarcity on the global oil market tied to concerns over OPEC+'s ability to quickly raise production joined by escalating tensions in Eastern Europe and Middle East that heightened geopolitical risk premium in oil prices. Near 7:30 a.m. ET, West Texas Intermediate futures for March delivery faded overnight gains to trade near $83.38 per barrel (bbl) after jumping above $84 bbl in overnight trading, and international crude benchmark Brent advanced $0.35 to $86.60 bbl. Both benchmarks fell as much as 2% on Monday. NYMEX February RBOB futures gained more than 1 cent to trade near $2.4094 gallon, and the front-month ULSD contract traded little changed near $2.6269 gallon. Oil's move higher came despite ongoing strength in the U.S. dollar index that spiked more than 0.3% against a basket of foreign currencies to near 96.215 level. Greenback continues to find support on expectations that the Federal Open Market Committee might tighten monetary policy more aggressively than previously expected to rein in surging inflation that came in at 7% in December -- the highest in 40 years. FOMC begins its two-day policy meeting today and is expected to signal the first interest rate hike in three years in March, while unwinding its monthly bond purchases. The Fed is currently buying $60 billion of bonds each month -- half the level prior to the November taper and $30 billion less than in December. Goldman Sachs forecasts at least four hikes in the federal funds rate this year. CME Group's FedWatch tool sees a small chance for the central bank to announce a rate hike Wednesday, and overwhelmingly a 25-basis point increase on March 16 when FOMC meets next. The VIX volatility measure in the stock market, surged to the highest level in nearly a year ahead of the statement from the Federal Reserve along with some of the key economic data in the United States. On Thursday, Bureau of Economic Analysis will release its first estimate of a fourth quarter gross domestic product, followed by Fed's preferred inflation gauge- personal consumption expenditures for the final month of 2021. Stocks on Wall Street staged a dramatic turnaround in the last 15 minutes of cash trading Monday to finish broadly higher after Dow Jones Industrial plunged more than 1000 points mid-session. Oil futures moved off intrasession lows with the reversal in equities.
Oil prices rebound as fears of Russia invading Ukraine rise - Oil prices have recovered from a slight hiccough over recent days, amid growing fears of Russian invading Ukraine and a consequent tightening in supplies. While increases in US oil inventories headed off shortfalls in production from multiple OPEC members and initially dampened rallies on both major benchmarks, the growing potential for conflict in Eastern Europe has caused prices to rise again. Currently, the US is in talks with major energy-producing countries such as Qatar and companies around the world over a potential diversion of supplies to Europe if Russia invades Ukraine. The US previously ruled out military action in Ukraine following talks between US President Joe Biden and Russian premier Vladimir Putin, instead warning of potential sanctions. However, it has now placed 8,500 troops on alert to be ready to deploy to Europe in case of an escalation in the Ukraine crisis, which the Kremlin said it was watching with great concern. The International Monetary Fund has also warned any conflict between Russia and Ukraine could result in sustained price hikes . Gita Gopinath, the fund’s deputy managing director, gloomily argued yesterday that conflict would mean “further increase in prices of oil and natural gas, and therefore of energy costs more broadly, for many countries in the world”. Alongside fears of reduced supplies from Ukraine-Russia tensions, there are also continued issues with underinvestment in the sector as banks make it harder for oil giants to invest and acquire loans. The market is also awaiting for US inventory reports from the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the US Energy Information Administration (EIA), which will both be published later this week. Biden is keen to head off high oil prices ahead of the mid-terms in November and reduce the cost of living for millions of Americans. Previous calls from Biden for OPEC and its allies to increase production above current rates of 400,000 extra barrels per day have so far fallen on deaf ears. In fact, multiple members are failing to even reach their relatively modest production increases amid capacity issues and fears of a supply glut this quarter. “I expect we’ll continue to see more of the same message from the White House as they can’t be seen to be doing nothing. But his hand is quite weak and it would take a massive release of reserves to make any real difference, which won’t be easy to do. And ultimately, OPEC+ could easily offset it.” “Whether or not Biden will intervene is purely a political, not markets question. That being said, if oil goes over $100 a barrel before the midterm elections, I would not be surprised if the Biden Administration decided to make another symbolic release of reserves. In reality, it is unlikely to have any meaningful or lasting effect on the price of oil.”
Oil Rebounds After Focus Shifts to Steady Demand Outlook - Oil prices rallied Tuesday after the biggest one-day tumble this year, with traders refocusing on the outlook for strong demand and the risk that a Russia-Ukraine conflict could disrupt supplies. West Texas Intermediate futures settled above $85 a barrel as fears about fresh lockdowns and a hit to global demand due to the omicron variant eased. Prices have whipsawed as the U.S. Federal Reserve prepares for interest-rate increases, while Russia builds troops along the border with Ukraine. “Crude prices are soaring on expectations that an already tight oil market could see geopolitical risks exacerbate the current imbalance,” said Ed Moya, Oanda’s senior market analyst for the Americas. “The risks are not just with the Russia-Ukraine border, but also include Iran nuclear talks and also North Korea.” In recent months, oil bears have retreated with speculators turning more bullish amid lower stockpiles. Crude rallied to a seven-year high last week as global consumption remained strong in the face of the fast-spreading, but milder, omicron variant. While inventories usually grow early in the year, traders are fretting that by the Northern Hemisphere’s summer, when demand typically rises, stockpiles may be too low to prevent a jump in prices. “Markets have proved to be tighter than we thought,” said David Martin, head of commodity desk strategy at BNP Paribas. He see small reductions in inventories this quarter, “and that underpins this view that the market continues to tighten up.” Inventories in key regions have tightened with stockpiles at Cushing, Oklahoma, the delivery point for benchmark U.S. crude futures, sliding to the lowest levels in more than five years seasonally. The market is also skeptical the Biden administration can do anything to slow down oil’s move higher as OPEC+ seems set to stick to gradual production increases, Moya said. The U.S. Energy Department announced that it loaned another 13.4 million barrels as part of an 32 million barrel exchange program announced in November, aiming to ease a rise in domestic gasoline prices. WTI for March delivery jumped $2.29 to settle at $85.60 a barrel in New York. Brent for the same month rose $1.93 to $88.20. The U.S. is putting thousands of soldiers on alert for deployment to Eastern Europe. The risk of a Russian invasion of Ukraine in the next few weeks stands at more than 50%, according to RBC Capital Markets analyst Helima Croft. Disruption to oil flows from Russia could easily send prices to $120 a barrel, JPMorgan Chase & Co. wrote last week. Costlier oil is helping fan inflationary pressures worldwide, prompting central banks to tighten monetary policy and forcing governments to take steps to cushion the impact on consumers. On Tuesday, Japan said it will give subsidies to refiners in a bid to curb gasoline prices.
Oil Prices Stable After API Reports Small Crude Draw - The American Petroleum Institute (API) estimated the inventory draw this week for crude oil to be 872,000 barrels after analysts predicted a draw of 400,000 barrels. U.S. crude inventories shed some 75 million barrels since the start of 2021, and about 17 million barrels since the start of 2020. In the week prior, the API reported a build in crude oil inventories of 1.404 million barrels after analysts had predicted a draw of 1.367 million barrels. Oil prices were trading up on Tuesday in the run-up to the data release, erasing Monday's losses in just the latest bout of price volatility with geopolitical concerns and strong demand pushing prices up, and fed moves and a strong dollar pushing prices down. WTI was trading up 2.36% to $85.28 on the day at 3:00 p.m. EST but down roughly $2 per barrel on the week. Brent crude was trading up by 2.16% at $88.13 on the day and down roughly $0.60 per barrel on the week. U.S. oil production continues to climb. For the week ending January 14—the last week for which the Energy Information Administration has provided data—crude oil production in the United States held fast at 11.7 million bpd. This is down 1.4 million bpd from the pre-pandemic era. Last week, the API reported the third build in a row for gasoline inventories, at 3.463 million barrels. This week, the API reported a build in gasoline inventories at 2.4 million barrels for the week ending January 21—on top of the previous week's 3.463 million barrel build. Distillate stocks saw a decrease in inventory of 2.2 million barrels for the week, after last week's 1.179 million barrel decrease. Cushing saw a 1 million-barrel decrease this week. At 4:43 pm, EST, WTI was trading at $85.08, with Brent trading at $87.78.
Brent Tops $90 As Oil Prices Dip Then Rip After US Inventory Data -- Dip-buyers charged in to buy oil after an initial dip following DOE's report of a surprise crude inventory build. WTI is up near $88. And Brent broke above $90... That is the first time Brent is above $90 since October 2014... A string of Wall Street banks including Goldman Sachs have forecast oil will hit $100 a barrel this year as the global market tightens.Prices are also moving on mounting concern over a possible Russian incursion into Ukraine, with President Biden saying he’d consider sanctioning Vladimir Putin if the Russian leader orders an invasion. Oil prices are dramatically extending yesterday's gains, despite a smaller than expected crude draw reported by API, as the tension between the West and Russia over Ukraine continues to add to geopolitical risk premia. “Crude prices are soaring on expectations that an already tight oil market could see geopolitical risks exacerbate the current imbalance,” “The risks are not just with the Russia-Ukraine border, but also include Iran nuclear talks and also North Korea.” In another bullish development for oil prices, more Chinese are expected to travel for the Lunar New Year holiday this year than in the previous two years, despite the Omicron spread, in a boost to fuel consumption in the world’s largest crude oil importer, according to data cited by Bloomberg.For now, all eyes will be on gasoline demand and crude inventories. API
- Crude -872k (-2.1mm exp)
- Cushing -1.0mm
- Gasoline +2.4mm (+2.2mm exp)
- Distillates -2.2mm (-1.6mm exp)
DOE
- Crude +2.377mm (-2.1mm exp)
- Cushing -1.823mm
- Gasoline +1.297mm (+2.2mm exp)
- Distillates -2.798 (-1.6mm exp)
The official crude inventory data surprised the market with a 2.377mm build (vs 2.1mm draw expected and a small draw reported by API). Cushing saw its 3rd straight week of draws. Gasoline stocks grew but at less than expected while distillate inventories fell most since early December... Graphics Source: BloombergGasoline demand remains drastically low - even assuming seasonals... Source: BloombergUS Crude production slipped to its lowest since November...The 4 week average volumes for U.S. crude exports are struggling to rise above the 3m b/d mark. This is despite perceptions that foreign demand is robust against a backdrop of supply shortages. But a pick up is expected in the weeks to come as Chinese refiners resume purchases for delivery after the Winter Olympics.Bloomberg's Danny Adkins notes that jet fuel inventories are at their lowest seasonal level in EIA data going back to 1992, despite a modest build last week. Stockpiles have held below 35 million barrels for four straight weeks, the first time they have done so since 1996.WTI is holding just above $87 (up $2 from last night's API report) ahead of the official data and slipped very modestly on the surprise build...Finally, we note that it would seem President Biden's sabre-ratlling in Eastern Europe are not helping his cause at home...
WTI Spikes 2.5% on Cushing Stock Draw, Lower Crude Output -- Oil futures nearest delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange spiked in late morning trade Wednesday in reaction to weekly inventory data showing total U.S. crude and petroleum product supplies declined during the third week of January amid lower oil production and recovering demand for motor gasoline, while a large drawdown from Cushing stockpiles -- the delivery point for West Texas Intermediate futures -- rallied WTI futures towards $88 barrel (bbl). Around noon New York time, March WTI futures spiked $2.20 bbl to $87.80 bbl, February RBOB futures surged 6.5 cents to $2.5245 gallon, with front-month ULSD futures rallying more than 7 cents to $2.7429 gallon. Total U.S. crude and oil products stocks decreased 4.1 million bbl from the previous week to 1.78 billion bbl, about 7% below the five-year average. Included in the drawdown was a 2.8 million bbl decline realized in distillate fuel stocks that pressed distillate inventories to 17% below the five-year average. Demand for middle of the barrel fuels surged 198,000 barrels per day (bpd) from the previous week to 4.754 million bpd -- the highest weekly demand rate since early December 2021. In the gasoline complex, demand also recovered, gaining 281,000 bpd to 8.505 million bpd, up more than 8% against a year ago. Gasoline stockpiles increased by 1.3 million bbl from the previous week to 247.9 million bbl compared with analyst expectations for inventories to have increased by 2.3 million bbl. U.S. commercial crude oil inventories increased for only the second time in the past nine weeks last week, rising 2.4 million bbl to 416.2 million bbl -- still about 7% below the five-year average. Markets mostly expected crude stockpiles would fall by 800,000 bbl from the prior week. Larger-than-expected crude build was realized as domestic refiners scaled back run rates by 0.4% last week to 87.7% compared with expectations for a 0.3% decrease. Oil stored at the Cushing delivery hub in Oklahoma fell 1.8 million bbl from the previous week to 31.7 million bbl. At this level, Cushing inventories stand more than 30% below the five-year average and at the lowest since October 2018. After holding steady at the beginning of January, U.S. crude oil production unexpectedly fell by 100,000 bpd last week to 11.6 million bpd, according to the EIA. U.S. crude production is still 1.4 million bpd below March 2020 level when COVID-19 pandemic shut-in a large chunk of domestic output.
Global oil benchmark tops $90 for the first time since 2014 -- Brent crude futures, the international oil benchmark, topped $90 on Wednesday for the first time since 2014, adding to oil's blistering recovery since its pandemic-era lows in April 2020. The threshold breakthrough comes amid growing geopolitical tensions between Russia and Ukraine, and as supply remains tight amid a rebound in demand. The contract added more than 2% at one point to hit a high of $90.47 per barrel for the first time since October 2014. However, Brent pulled back slightly in afternoon trading, ultimately settling 2% higher at $89.96 per barrel. West Texas Intermediate crude futures, the U.S. oil benchmark, settled 2.04% higher at $87.35 per barrel. During the session the contract hit a high of $87.95, a price last seen in October 2014. Rebecca Babin said potential sanctions on Russia, which would be triggered by a Ukraine invasion, would be a catalyst for higher crude prices. Goldman Sachs said Wednesday the firm's base case is that supply disruptions are unlikely to occur, but that there could be upside for energy prices given an already tight market. "Commodity markets are increasingly vulnerable to disruptions, after a couple years of historically low outages following the initial Covid shock," the firm wrote in a note to clients. "Against the backdrop of the tightest inventory levels in decades, low spare capacity and a much less elastic shale sector, this points to the skew of large energy price moves shifting to the upside, reinforcing the case for a rising allocating to commodities in portfolios." Earlier this month, Goldman Sachs said that Brent can reach $100 per barrel by the third quarter, adding to a number of Wall Street firms calling for triple-digit oil. Barclays noted that while prices may be reacting in part to a "geopolitical premium," the underlying fundamentals are fueling the push higher. OPEC and its oil-producing allies have been returning crude to the market, but the group's been unable to ramp up production to hit its targets. Meanwhile, U.S. shale oil growth has slowed, and omicron hasn't been the demand hit that was initially expected. Additionally, inventory levels remain depleted. The Energy Information Administration said Wednesday that crude oil inventories rose by 2.4 million barrels during the week ended Jan. 21. The Street was expecting an increase of just 150,000 barrels, according to estimates compiled by FactSet.
Oil Hits 7 Year High Amid International Concerns | Rigzone -- Brent oil surged above $90 for the first time in seven years before paring as the market fretted over Russia-Ukraine tensions. Futures in New York closed 2% higher, with the global benchmark touching $90 a barrel earlier in the session on Wednesday. Concerns are mounting over a possible Russian incursion into Ukraine, with U.S. President Joe Biden saying he’d consider sanctioning Vladimir Putin if the Russian leader orders an invasion. A potential conflict carries large risks for financial markets -- especially energy commodities such as natural gas and oil. Inventories at the largest U.S. oil hub fell 1.8 million barrels for the third week in a row while total domestic stockpiles rose modestly. The oil market’s structure has surged in recent days, signaling tight supply. “How the sanctions would impact Russian oil production getting into the market is the concern,” said Rob Thummel, Tortoise portfolio manager. “In a global oil market that’s having a hard time with supply keeping up with the demand, less Russian oil supply would temporarily push up prices.” Crude is having a volatile week, slumping Monday then rebounding Tuesday. Prices are at a seven-year high with demand continuing to recover from the pandemic as mobility picks up. A string of Wall Street banks including Goldman Sachs Group Inc. have forecast oil will hit $100 a barrel this year as the global market tightens. Adding to tighter market constraints, OPEC+ is expected to stick to their plan and ratify another modest production increase next week. Prices: West Texas Intermediate for March delivery rose $1.75 to settle at $87.35 a barrel in New York. Brent for March settlement rose $1.76 to settle at $89.96 a barrel. In the EIA weekly report, Cushing crude stockpiles fell for the third week in a row last week to 31.7 million barrels, getting close to the 30--million-barrel level that traders watch as a warning signal for low inventories. Draws in the storage hub are a key reason why the WTI prompt spread is rallying to levels last seen in November.
Easing Ukrainian Tensions Doesn't Halt Oil Rally - Following an explosive rally triggered by fears of an imminent Russian invasion in the Ukraine and potential disruption to European gas supplies, oil futures nearest delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange and Brent crude traded on the Intercontinental Exchange advanced early Thursday following an offer of a "diplomatic path" out of the crisis from the United States and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization -- a move Russia described as a positive step to diffuse the tensions. Russia's foreign minister Sergei Lavrov said this morning that it will take some time for Moscow to analyze NATO's response and it would not rush to make any decision. Germany, the European Union's largest economy, has so far refused to send weapons to the Ukraine, saying there could never be a military solution to this crisis. Germany draws more than half of its gas imports from Russia against around 40% on average for the European Union, according to EU's statistics agency Eurostat. That alone limits options to sanction Moscow should it invade Ukraine considering the risk Moscow could retaliate by cutting off the supply. Nord Stream 2 -- the natural gas pipeline completed late last year that still awaits formal approval by German regulators, would double the capacity for Russian gas exports to the country. The geopolitical concerns for oil futures comes ahead of a handful of economic data, with investors awaiting the release of the first estimate of U.S. gross domestic product for the fourth quarter and durable goods orders for the final month of 2021, with both reports on tap for an 8:30 AM ET release. High-frequency data suggests U.S. economic growth softened in the first weeks of the year, hammered by the vicious spread of Omicron and worker absenteeism amid ever-changing quarantine guidelines from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Weekly jobless claims jumped by more than 40% to 286,000 in the first three weeks of January, with fresh data to be released this morning. Consumer sentiment has weakened once again at the start of the year as inflation surged to the highest level in 40 years at 7% in December. Against this backdrop, U.S. Federal Reserve signaled it was readying the first interest rate hike in more than three years later in the first quarter, as it unwinds ultra-easy monetary policy. Beginning in February, the Fed will increase its holdings of Treasury securities by at least $20 billion per month and mortgage ?backed securities by at least $10 billion per month, reducing total monthly purchases by $30 billion. In early trade, West Texas Intermediate futures for March delivery advanced $0.88 to trade near $88.24 per barrel (bbl), and international crude benchmark Brent crude jumped above $90 bbl, gaining $0.93 in overnight trade. NYMEX February RBOB futures rallied 2.15 cents to $2.5442 gallon, and the front-month ULSD contract surged 2.8 cents to $2.7720 gallon.
Oil falls from seven-year high as Russia tensions offset Fed tightening - Oil prices fell on Thursday after Brent crude hit a seven-year high above $90 a barrel, as the market balanced concerns about tight worldwide supply with expectations the U.S. Federal Reserve will soon tighten monetary policy. Global benchmark Brent fell 62 cents to settle at $89.34 a barrel, while U.S. crude closed 74 cents lower at $86.61 a barrel in a volatile session with both contracts see-sawing between positive and negative territory. Prices had surged on Wednesday, with Brent climbing above $90 a barrel for the first time in seven years amid tensions between Russia and the West. Threats to the United Arab Emirates from Yemen's Houthi movement had added to oil market jitters. Russia, the world's second-largest oil producer, and the West have been at loggerheads over Ukraine, fanning fears that energy supplies to Europe could be disrupted, although concerns are focused on gas supplies rather than crude. Russia said it was clear the United States was not willing to address Moscow's main security concerns in their standoff over Ukraine, but kept the door open for dialogue. U.S. Under Secretary of State for Political Affairs Victoria Nuland said the United States hopes Russia will study what Washington has offered and come back to the table. "The market is very erratic on headlines on the Russia-Ukraine situation," said Phil Flynn, senior analyst at Price Futures Group. "There's uncertainty about what's going to happen." Weighing on prices, the U.S. Federal Reserve said on Wednesday it was likely to raise interest rates in March and planned to end its bond purchases that month to tame inflation. The U.S. dollar climbed after the announcement, making oil more expensive for buyers using other currencies. On Thursday, the dollar index climbed to the highest since July 2021. "A more pronounced price slide is being prevented by the Ukraine crisis, as there are still concerns that Russian oil and gas deliveries could be hampered in the event of a military escalation," Commerzbank said after the morning price dip. The market is starting to turn its attention to a Feb. 2 meeting of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and allies led by Russia, a group known as OPEC+. OPEC+ is likely to stick with a planned rise in its oil output target for March, several sources in the group told Reuters. It has raised its output target each month since August by 400,000 barrels per day (bpd) as it unwinds record production cuts made in 2020. However, the group has faced capacity constraints that have prevented some members from producing at their quota levels.
Oil Futures Reverse Higher Friday Morning -- Oil futures nearest delivery reversed higher in early morning trade Friday, with all petroleum contracts heading for their sixth consecutive weekly advance spurred by falling U.S. crude oil stockpiles and heightened geopolitical risk related to tensions along the Russian-Ukrainian border and the threat of another missile attack on Gulf oil infrastructure from Iranian backed Houthis militia in Yemen. Near 7:30 a.m. ET, West Texas Intermediate futures for March delivery advanced $0.62 to $87.24 per barrel (bbl), and international crude benchmark Brent crude edged above $90 bbl -- the highest trade since July 2014. NYMEX RBOB February contract gained 2.64 cents to $2.5474 gallon and the front-month ULSD contract rallied 3.49 cents or 2.3% to $2.8294 gallon, supported by ongoing robust U.S. demand for middle distillates. Total crude oil stockpiles held by industrialized countries declined for the third consecutive month in December, according to the International Energy Agency, which has pressed inventories to their lowest level in seven years. In the United States alone, inventories held in Cushing storage tanks -- the delivery point for WTI futures -- stand at their lowest since October 2018 and 30% below the five-year average. Globally, OPEC+ producers have struggled to raise shut-in crude production in line with their agreed monthly quota of 400,000 bpd, with several key members of the alliance, including Russia and Nigeria, are speculated to have hit their output ceiling. A structural supply deficit from OPEC+ producers, as well as laggard recovery of U.S. shale output means oil prices could go even higher. Investors will look towards the next OPEC+ meeting on Feb. 2 for the group's decision on production and output levels for March. The alliance is expected to maintain its gradual unwinding of production cuts and proceed with its planned 400,000 barrel-per-day (bpd) output hike for the final month of the first quarter. Amid tightening fundamentals, the oil market is particularly sensitive to the risk of supply disruption. Tensions between Russia, a major oil producer, and Ukraine, a major conduit for natural gas supplies to the European Union, have been partly responsible for driving the Brent contract above $90 bbl. Limiting the upside for the oil complex is a rallying U.S. dollar index that gained 0.18% against a basket of foreign currencies in early trading to trade near 97.420. The greenback rallied Thursday on better-than-expected reading on U.S. gross domestic product that surged 6.9% in the final three months of 2021 compared with an expected 5.7% annual growth rate. The reading marked the fastest expansion of U.S. GDP since the third quarter 2020 when the economy roared back from pandemic-induced lockdown measures.
Oil heads for sixth weekly gain amid supply concerns --Oil prices rose on Friday, set for their sixth weekly gain, amid concerns of tight supplies as major producers continue their policy of limited output increases amid rising fuel demand. Brent crude futures settled 69 cents, or 0.77%, higher at $90.03 per barrel, after falling 62 cents during the previous day. However, prices did reach $91.04 earlier in that session, the highest since October 2014. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures settled 21 cents higher at $86.82 per barrel, having declined 74 cents on Thursday. WTI also reached a seven-year high of $88.54 earlier in the session. Both Brent and WTI are set to rise for a sixth week, the longest weekly streak since October, when Brent prices climbed for seven weeks while WTI gained for nine. This year, prices have gained about 15% amid geopolitical tensions between Russia, the world's second-largest oil producer and a key natural gas provider to Europe, and the West over Ukraine as well as threats to the United Arab Emirates from Yemen's Houthi movement that have raised concerns about energy supply. "Where Brent crosses $90 level, we see some selling from a sense of accomplishment, but investors start buying again when the prices fall a little as they remain cautious about possible supply disruptions due to rising geopolitical tensions," said Tatsufumi Okoshi, senior economist at Nomura Securities. "The market expects supply will stay tight as the OPEC+ is seen to keep the existing policy of gradual increase in production," he said The market is focusing on a Feb. 2 meeting of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and allies led by Russia, a group known as OPEC+. OPEC+ is likely to stick with a planned rise in its oil output target for March, several sources in the group told Reuters. An increase in oil output by producer nations cashing in on expensive crude has depleted the cushion of spare capacity that protects the market from sudden shocks and raised the risk of price spikes or even fuel shortages. "OPEC has been struggling to increase output in line with the agreed rise in quotas ... In effect, spare capacity is at a level which may not be enough to cover any geopolitical disruptions," analysts from ANZ Research said in a note on Friday. "We see the market remaining in deficit in Q1 2022. With supply constraints likely to be a feature of the oil market for a while, we see markets pricing in a sizeable risk premium," said ANZ, adding that it raised its short-term oil price target to $95 per barrel. On the demand side, crude oil imports in China, the world's biggest importer of the commodity, could rebound by a much as 7% this year, reversing 2021's rare decline as buyers step up purchases for new refining units and to replenish low inventories, analysts and oil company officials said.
UAE repels drone attack, while Iranian-backed rebels vow more- Yemen’s Iranian-backed Houthi group targeted the United Arab Emirates on Monday for the second time in a week, raising concerns of an escalation in the oil-exporting region even as the Gulf nation said it had intercepted the strike. Oil gained, remaining near the highest levels since 2014 as geopolitical tensions and the prospect of improving demand pushed crude to five straight weekly gains. Brent crude traded near $90 a barrel on Monday after reports of the attack. Shrapnel fell over scattered areas of Abu Dhabi after military defenses repelled two ballistic missiles, but there was no damage or loss of life, the UAE Defense Ministry said in a statement. The UAE said it had destroyed the launchers in Yemen’s northern Al Jawf region, more than 1,270 kilometers (790 miles) from Abu Dhabi, immediately after the missiles were fired and was “taking all necessary procedures to protect the country.” The strike comes barely a week after Abu Dhabi suffered its first deadly attack in Yemen’s seven-year conflict, with the Houthis warning international investors to leave and vowing to expand their range of targets in a country that’s built its economy and attracted millions of expatriates on the back of its reputation as a safe harbor in a volatile region. The U.S. embassy in Abu Dhabi issued a rare alert urging its “citizens in the United Arab Emirates to maintain a high level of security awareness” and offering detailed advice on how to cope with missile strikes. The escalation comes at a critical time for regional diplomacy; Iran’s longtime support of the Houthis means the incidents could upset fragile diplomatic efforts to ease frictions with Gulf Arab neighbors as well as broader negotiations to restore Tehran’s 2015 nuclear deal with world powers. Houthi spokesman Yahya Saree said in a televised speech on its Al-Masirah TV Monday that the group targeted the Al Dhafra military air base in Abu Dhabi and attacked several targets in the UAE’s commercial capital of Dubai using drones. There was no confirmation of any attack on Dubai. Last week’s missile and drone attack on Abu Dhabi killed three people and wounded six, igniting a fire at the airport and setting fuel trucks ablaze. Drones have made it possible to conduct small, targeted assaults that slip through multibillion-dollar defense systems designed to deter more advanced weapons. The physical damage -- both on land and at sea -- is usually minimal but the reputational impact could still be huge for the UAE, OPEC’s third biggest oil producer.
Scores killed in Saudi-led airstrikes, highlighting US-Saudi war crimes --The last few days have seen a sharp escalation in the number of airstrikes by the Saudi-led coalition against its impoverished, southern neighbour Yemen, with a series of horrific attacks on civilian infrastructure and buildings that have played no part in the seven-year-long war. The attacks amount to crimes under the Fourth Geneva Convention. On Friday, a Saudi airstrike on a detention center in Saada, northern Yemen, housing African migrant workers transiting through Yemen to Saudi Arabia, killed at least 82 people and wounded 266 more, with the number of casualties expected to climb as paramedics dig through the rubble. A separate attack on a telecommunications center in the port city of Hodeidah shut down the country’s internet and killed three children playing nearby. Netblocks, which monitors internet blockages, described Yemen as experiencing “a nation-scale collapse of internet connectivity,” while the aid agency, the Norwegian Refugee Council, described the strike as “a blatant attack on civilian infrastructure that will also impact our aid delivery.” Earlier this week, the UN said that this month’s violence could soon surpass that witnessed in December, when 358 civilians were killed or injured, as a result of an alarming number of airstrikes, drones and rockets used against civilians and non-military targets. According to the humanitarian aid organization Save The Children, the last three months of 2021 witnessed a 60 percent increase in civilian casualties. There has been ferocious fighting in the Marib and Shabwa districts in southern Yemen, the last regional stronghold of the Saudi-backed government and location of most of the country’s oil reserves, as the Houthis reached the outskirts of Marib city. Its fall would signify the definitive end of the regime headed by President Abdu Rabbu Mansour Hadi, who long ago fled to Riyadh. In the last few days, pro-Hadi fighters, aided by scores of Saudi airstrikes and UAE-funded and trained proxies, including the Giants Brigade, have pushed back the Houthis, killing hundreds of Houthi fighters. This in turn prompted the Houthis to launch a drone attack on Abu Dhabi, capital of the United Arab Emirates (UAE), on Monday that killed three people and wounded six. On Tuesday, Saudi air strikes killed 20 people, including several civilians, in the capital and largest city Sanaa, where Houthi websites show horrifying scenes of women, children and the elderly alongside ruined homes, hospitals and clinics without medication and operating theaters lit by flashlights because there is no electricity. Other strikes on water treatment facilities have left more than 120,000 people in the capital without access to clean drinking water. None of these atrocities could have been carried out without the fighter jets, bombs, weaponry, materiel, training, maintenance and logistical support, including targeting intelligence and aerial refuelling for Saudi planes, supplied by the US and UK. Washington and London have backed the Saudi-led coalition in its onslaught which began in 2015, providing it with political and diplomatic cover at the UN.
US shipment of military equipment, munitions arrives in Ukraine - A plane carrying about 80 tons of U.S. military equipment landed in Ukraine’s capital on Tuesday, part of a $200-million lethal aid package from the Biden administration to bolster Kyiv against a potential Russian attack. The cargo was the third shipment of the total package and included Javelin anti-tank missiles, “other anti-armor systems, grenade launchers, munitions, and non-lethal equipment essential to Ukraine’s front line defenders,” Pentagon spokesman Marine Corps Lt. Col. Anton Semelroth said in a statement. Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov thanked Washington for the lethal aid and released a picture of some of the launchers and missiles on Twitter. He said the country expects the arrival of a fourth batch of military equipment “soon.” The White House in December approved the $200 million package to Kyiv in a bid to avert an incursion from Russia, which has placed at least 100,000 troops near Ukraine's border. Moscow has denied it is planning an attack. The United States, which has committed more than more than $2.7 billion in security assistance to Ukraine since Russia’s 2014 annexation of the Crimea peninsula, including $650 million in 2021, has said a Russian invasion of Ukraine is “imminent.”
Amid Ukraine crisis, US Navy stages war games in South China Sea -- Even as the US and its European allies are beating the war drums against Russia over the Ukraine, the US Navy is engaged in provocative war games in the South China Sea aimed at threatening China. These naval exercises are a clear indication that the Pentagon’s war planners recognise that any conflict with Russia could very quickly widen to embroil China. Two nuclear aircraft carriers—the USS Carl Vinson and the USS Abraham Lincoln—and their strike groups began joint military drills on Sunday. There was no pretence that the exercises had any benign intent. They aimed, stated a media release, “to strengthen maritime integrated-at-sea operations and combat readiness.” The Pentagon’s AirSea Battle strategy for war with China is premised on the US control of waters adjacent to the Chinese mainland, particularly Hainan Island, which is adjacent to the South China Sea and houses key submarine bases. AirSea Battle envisages a massive air and missile assault on Chinese military bases and infrastructure from US bases, warships and submarines. That is exactly what the US Navy is preparing for. According to the press release, the two aircraft carrier strike groups are engaged “in joint operations to include enhanced maritime communication operations, anti-submarine warfare operations, air warfare operations, replenishments-at-sea, cross-deck flight operations and maritime interdiction operations.” An article in the South China Morning Post last week noted that US carrier strike groups had entered the South China Sea 10 times in 2021, compared with six times in 2020 and five in 2019. Even before the current exercises, the USS Carl Vinson had carried out a five-day joint drill around the disputed Spratly Islands in the South China Sea with the Essex Amphibious Ready Group, which is specifically tasked with amphibious assaults. Last week the USS Carl Vinson and the Essex amphibious group joined USS Abraham Lincoln and the America Expeditionary Strike Group, which is also designated for amphibious assaults, for war games in the Philippine Sea—to the east of Taiwan. The massive US naval presence was further bolstered by two Japanese warships—the helicopter carrier JS Hyuga and the destroyer JS Myoko. The inclusion of US amphibious naval units is particularly menacing, not only to the Chinese mainland but to Chinese-controlled islets in the South China Sea, which would be prime targets in any US war with China.
China's spending on R&D reaches new high in 2021 - China's spending on research and development (R&D) hit a new high of 2.44 percent of its gross domestic product (GDP) in 2021, up 0.03 percentage points from the previous year, official data showed Wednesday. The country's total expenditure on R&D amounted to about 2.79 trillion yuan (about 441.13 billion U.S. dollars) last year, up 14.2 percent year on year, according to a report released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS). After deducting price factors, China's R&D spending in 2021 rose 9.4 percent year on year, said the NBS.
China's fiscal revenue jumps 10.7 pct in 2021 on stronger economic recovery --China's fiscal revenue rose 10.7 percent year on year to hit 20.25 trillion yuan (about 3.19 trillion U.S. dollars) in 2021, Xu Hongcai, vice minister of finance, said Tuesday. The fiscal revenue in 2021 nearly doubled from the 2012 figure of 11.73 trillion yuan, Xu said at a press conference. The central government collected about 9.15 trillion yuan in revenue, up 10.5 percent year on year, while local governments saw revenue up 10.9 percent to 11.1 trillion yuan. "The recovery of economic growth and higher producer prices helped drive up fiscal revenues of central and local governments," Xu said. China's GDP expanded 8.1 percent year on year in 2021, surpassing the government's target. "The steady growth of GDP has laid a sound foundation for the growth of the country's fiscal revenue," Xu said. Buoyed by rising commodity prices, upstream enterprises reported significant revenue and profit increases last year, driving the growth of fiscal revenue, he said. In the first 11 months of last year, the total profits of major industrial enterprises surged 38 percent from a year earlier. However, the fiscal revenue growth averaged 3.1 percent over the past two years, lower than the country's average GDP growth of 5.1 percent for the two-year period. The share of fiscal revenue in GDP kept falling during the period, which indicated fiscal support for economic and social development remained under relatively high pressure, Xu warned. The country's fiscal spending edged up 0.3 percent year on year to 24.63 trillion yuan in 2021.
China’s Government Is Targeting ‘Sissy’ Men, with Devastating Consequences - Yves Smith - Reaching for his foundation and beauty blender, Pan Ning tells gal-dem that men like him are not welcomed in his country. “Society expects men to be warriors and accuses effeminate boys of being ‘perverts’,” says the 23-year-old college graduate, speaking via Zoom from Shanghai, China.In recent years, the Chinese government has been fighting to eradicate what it deems “abnormal” gender aesthetics– such as an androgynous wardrobe and boys wearing heavy make-up – in schools and the entertainment industry. But their campaign has stepped up a notch recently, following the rise in popularity and style of ‘effeminate’ male idols.Aiming to develop a “healthy” cultural environment for the next generation and to succeed in “national rejuvenation” (President Xi Jinping’s plan for the country to enter a new era), the Chinese government has introduced a raft of legislation affecting popular culture and society. It is waging a war against what it deems to be unorthodox masculine expressions, in an attempt to “save our boys” from the so-called “masculinity crisis”.The latest example came in early January, when the state’s National Radio and Television Administration banned love dramas and talent shows centring boys, following last September’sbanon ‘sissy’ male celebrity idols.China’s ‘masculinity crisis’ stems from long-standing reinforced stereotypes of genders and homophobia, according to Lü Pin, a leading Chinese feminist activist who has been fighting gender-based discrimination since the late 1990s. “Women are considered inferior, obedient and are not able to retain power in the office,” Lü tells gal-dem via phone from New Jersey, US, where she now lives. “That’s why, when boys don’t conform to gender norms as a masculine tough guy, the government gets worried. They are afraid that men will lose their dominant power in everything.” The proclamations have come from different layers of the Chinese government, largely aimed at male teenagers. State media has played a role too, reinforcing this messaging by arguing that alack of exercise has spoiled many young men and made them too ‘soft’ for the military.
Prices are rising all over the world, and leaders see no quick fix - It probably isn’t much consolation for Americans struggling with the highest inflation in 40 years, but they are not alone. In the European Union, prices are rising faster than at any time since the euro currency was introduced. The annual inflation rate in the United Kingdom hit 5.4 percent in December, the highest figure there in nearly 30 years. Canada’s consumer prices are rising twice as fast as before the pandemic. Even in Japan, where prices have been depressed almost continuously since the collapse of the late 1980s real estate bubble, the central bank in recent days revised upward its assessment of inflation risks for the first time in eight years. Among major economies, only China has a lower inflation rate today than in early 2020. Around the world, soaring prices are emerging as a feature of the pandemic-era recovery, prompting some central banks to pivot to inflation fighting. The new focus caps an era since the 2008 financial crisis that saw global forces — such as the rise of cross-border supply chains and a decline in workers’ bargaining power — keep inflation subdued. As factories around the world revive at different speeds, a mismatch between the goods that are being produced and those that customers want to buy is helping drive prices higher. Longer-term trends, such as increased protectionism, rising Chinese wages and the adjustment to a low-carbon economy, will put upward pressure on prices in the years ahead, according to research by the BlackRock Investment Institute. “We’ve come through a period where global forces were clearly disinflationary. We’re entering a period, in the near term at least, where they are more likely to push inflation up rather than down,” In the United States, the Federal Reserve is weighing a complex blend of global and domestic factors as it prepares to tackle 7 percent inflation, the highest among all major economies. On Tuesday, the Fed’s policymaking committee is expected to signal that rate hikes will begin in March. Inflation is causing rising prices at the gas station and grocery store. Experts explain what is causing inflation and how long it might stick around. (Sarah Hashemi, Hadley Green/The Washington Post) Inflation is wiping out wage increases for most Americans “Part of what we’re seeing in the U.S. is very similar to, and echoed in, the rest of the world,” said Nathan Sheets, global chief economist for Citigroup. “And part of it is unique to our circumstances and particularly to the strength of U.S. aggregate demand.” Snarled global supply chains, afflicting ports in Rotterdam and Shanghai as well as in Los Angeles, are driving up costs around the world. Increasing commodities costs, including food and energy, are doing likewise. Over the past year, global oil prices are up more than 55 percent. Nickel, used in automotive and aerospace plants, is up 27 percent. And coffee has almost doubled in price.
IMF downgrades global growth forecast - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) cut its economic growth forecast for 2022 to 4.4 percent, according to its Economic Outlook forecast released on Tuesday. According to the new report, factors such as the highly infectious COVID-19 omicron variant, supply chain disruptions, rising energy prices and inflation are all behind the agency's downgraded outlook for this year. In the U.S., continued supply chain disruptions coupled with the low likelihood of the Build Back Better Act passing in Congress lowered the IMF's projection for the U.S. by 1.2 percentage points. "The forecast is conditional on adverse health outcomes declining to low levels in most countries by end-2022, assuming vaccination rates improve worldwide and therapies become more effective," the IMF wrote in its report. Along with this downgrade, the IMF forecasted that inflation will persist for longer than previously predicted, saying it will likely begin to go down as supply chain issues resolve and monetary policies respond in major economies. The IMF's newly-appointed First Deputy Managing Director, Gita Gopinath, told reporters on Tuesday that the bulk of the downgraded forecast had to with uncertainty in the U.S. and China. “The IMF's latest world economic outlook, therefore, anticipates that while Omicron will weigh on activity in the first quarter of this year, this effect will fade starting in the second quarter," she said.
Canadian truck drivers protest COVID vaccine mandate - Truckers in Canada began a march from Vancouver to Ottawa on Sunday to protest the government's COVID-19 vaccine mandate for truckers. The truckers had raised over $2 million as of Sunday using a GoFundMe aimed at fighting the requirement, which they say will lead to driver shortages and contribute to inflation, according to Reuters. The money raised will be used to provide fuel, food and lodging for the marchers, who are expected to reach Ottawa on Jan. 29, the news service added. Up to 20 percent of the 160,000 Canadian and American cross-border truck drivers could be impacted and off the roads as a result of the mandate, the Canadian Trucking Alliance (CTA) said, per Reuters. Auschwitz Memorial says RFK Jr. speech at anti-vaccine rally... Germany keeping restrictions in place amid soaring COVID-19 infections Earlier this month, Canada said it would permit unvaccinated Canadian truck drivers to enter from the U.S., a reversal from a previous mandate for all truckers. Under that policy, American truck drivers were still required to be vaccinated. At that time, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau was reportedly facing mounting pressure from the opposition party and the trucking lobby to forgo the requirement. However, the mandate that the marchers are protesting went into effect on Jan. 15 and requires unvaccinated Canadian truck drivers to get tested for COVID-19 and to quarantine upon re-entering Canada from the U.S.
'I thought it was a joke': Canada Post employee sent home for wearing N95 mask instead of company-provided cloth or disposable mask - A Winnipeg man who works for Canada Post as a mail carrier said he was sent home for the type of mask he was wearing, despite it being better than the company's masks.Corey Gallagher said he went back to work on Monday after having some time off over the holidays.When he showed up at work, he was wearing an N95 mask. “Right away a supervisor came up to me and told me I can't wear that mask," said Gallagher."I didn't really understand, I thought it was a joke at first, like 'Why can't I wear this when the ones you are providing are cloth.'"He said he wasn't going to change his mask and started to sort his mail for the day. During his sorting process, he had multiple supervisors approach him asking him if he needed a mask and then telling him he couldn't wear the one he had."I still didn't change my mask, went about my day, just kind of ignored it. Went out, delivered my mail, came back and then it was the same thing, only this time it was the head superintendent saying I can't."The following day, Gallagher said he showed up wearing the same mask and was eventually told to leave after refusing to wear a company provided mask.In an email to CTV News, a spokesperson for Canada Post said the company follows recommendations from the Public Health Agency of Canada, noting the agency supports people wearing non-medical masks that have at least two layers of woven fabric with a third middle layer of filter fabric or a disposable mask."The company fully supports these guidelines and therefore requires all employees to wear a Canada Post-supplied face covering, which is either a reusable cloth face covering or a disposable medical mask," the spokesperson said.They added if an employee doesn't have a mask that Canada Post provides, there are additional masks on hand and if the employee still doesn't wear the company provided mask they are told to leave. Gallagher, who said he was suspended without pay for the day he was sent home, said there are reasons why he wears an N95 mask compared to a cloth mask. He said his wife is immunocompromised and he has a child who is not old enough to be vaccinated. "This is personal. I'd like to keep my family safe if I can." Gallagher has been told he can wear his mask outside of the Canada Post facility but he must wear the supplied mask in the facility.
Macron calls to introduce massive US-style university tuition fees in France - French President Emmanuel Macron has proposed to end quasi-free university education in France, with the emergence of “American-style” paying institutions. Macron is proposing a fundamental attack on the democratic right to education, especially targeting children from working class or low-income families. Macron spoke of the need to professionalize universities in conjunction with businesses, which should lead to the opening of places in short courses, even though it is more advanced degrees that provide the most protection against unemployment. He proposed to review university governance to aim for “more excellence for universities,” adding, “Yes, we must move towards more autonomy in terms of organization, financing, human resources.”To do this, Macron warned that the quasi-free status of French universities, in which most tuition fees for most students amount to a few hundred euros, must come to an end. “To meet international competition, we cannot remain for long with a system where higher education has no price for almost all students; where a third of students are on scholarship; and where, however, we have so much student insecurity and a difficulty in financing a model that is much more financed on public money than anywhere else in the world.” In France, after the May 1968 general strike, the organization of universities was significantly modified by the Faure law: it abolished faculties, democratized university governance and created several universities in large cities. But over the past 15 years, with the “law on the freedoms and responsibilities of universities” brought in by Valérie Pécresse in 2007, a series of reforms have followed one another. These reforms aim to diminish democracy and collegiality in the governance of institutions and give businesses greater power and influence in universities. These reforms have been accompanied by the employment of staff working under precarious status, which led in 2018 to a movement protesting against the “research programming law” voted the same year and put into place by the Macron government. Macron wants to go further and break what remains of social and democratic advances established by workers’ struggles in the 20th century, especially after the defeat of fascism in World War II. Targeting the ability of working class families to access higher education—which provided technicians and engineers for new industries that were created in France after the war— his proposals seek to pave the way for a vast increase in social inequality.
Germany keeping restrictions in place amid soaring COVID-19 infections - Germany will not loosen its COVID-19 restrictions that were toughened earlier this month as the country endures a surge in coronavirus cases. On Monday, Chancellor Olaf Scholz said “we don’t need a change of course” when speaking of the country's COVID-19 policies with the daily newspaper Sueddeutsche Zeitung, according to The Associated Press. “It is, in any case, certainly not appropriate to loosen the rules broadly in the middle of the omicron wave,” he added.On Jan. 7, Scholz and the country's 16 governors enhanced restrictions for entering bars and restaurants, though they also shortened the required quarantine period at the same time. The chancellor's recent remarks came on Monday ahead of a meeting during which he and the governors are set to discuss how the country will move forward during the pandemic. They are expected to announce that PCR tests will be prioritized for higher risk groups including health care employees and older people, the AP reported. The group is also set to discuss the possibility of a universal vaccine mandate, a topic lawmakers are expected to debate on Wednesday, the wire service said. Also on Monday, Germany's top education official, Astrid-Sabine Busse, said that students would not be required to attend school in person until the end of January. Schools will, however, remain open for any students who wish to be there in person, the AP added. In the past two weeks, Germany has hit several new records in terms of daily infections. On Monday, Germany reported 63,393 cases in the past day, and the country's health minister said he expects cases will not peak until mid-February, the AP noted.
UK scrapping testing requirements for vaccinated arrivals - The British government has announced it will scrap COVID-19 testing requirements for vaccinated air travelers, The Associated Press reported. Transport Secretary Grant Shapps said on Monday the new changes will take effect on Feb. 11, coinciding with the same time schoolchildren return from midterm holiday break. Travelers who are fully vaccinated had previously had to take a rapid coronavirus test within two days of arriving in the country and unvaccinated travelers had faced stricter testing and quarantine rules, according to the AP. Great Britain is also lifting testing requirements for adult residents and children under the age of 18 and will ease restrictions for unvaccinated residents, who will now take virus tests before and after traveling, foregoing previous quarantine requirements. The British government will also lift restrictions, including mask mandates this week, partly to rely on vaccinations and virus testing in an effort to keep the virus in check, according to the AP. “Border testing of vaccinated travelers has outlived its usefulness,” Shapps said in a statement. “Today we are setting Britain free.” This comes as most countries are currently dealing with a winter surge of COVID-19 infections due to the omicron variant. Tourism and travel firms who were hampered by the previous restrictions applaud the British government's recent decision, the AP reported.
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