week ending Feb 12

U.S. inflation data like a 'punch in the stomach' for the Fed: Citi -- The latest U.S. January inflation data came in like a "punch in the stomach" for the Federal Reserve, which raises the possibility for an aggressive 50 basis points rate hike in March, the global chief economist of Citi Research said. The consumer price index for January, which measures the costs of dozens of everyday consumer goods, rose 7.5% year-on-year, the Labor Department reported Thursday. "This inflation data today came like a punch in the stomach for Jay Powell and his colleagues," Nathan Sheets told CNBC's "Squawk Box Asia" on Friday, referring to the Fed chairman. "Their narrative is that as the year progresses, we should see inflation start to abate and to come on down. And there was not even a hint of that in the January data," he added. The monthly CPI rates also came in stronger than expected. Both headline and core CPI rose 0.6%, compared to estimates for a 0.4% increase by both measures. Even with the challenges posed by the highly contagious omicron variant, inflation still remains high, and more progress needs to be made to bring inflation down to 3% for this year, Sheets said. "I think we're also going to have to see an increasingly aggressive Federal Reserve. And I think that clearly after today's inflation data, 50 basis points for March has to be on the table," he said. Even then, he added, it may not be enough. "What are we going to have to do through the rest of the year to wrestle inflation to the ground? Because it doesn't seem like it's abating on its own — at least there's no sign of that yet," said Sheets. Goldman, BoFA predict seven hikes Following the latest inflation data, Goldman Sachs said it was raising its Fed forecast to include "seven consecutive 25bp rate hikes" at each of the remaining Federal Open Market Committee meeting in 2022. The investment bank had previously predicted five hikes for the year. "We see the arguments for a 50bp rate hike in March. The level of the funds rate looks inappropriate, and the combination of very high inflation, hot wage growth and high short-term inflation expectations means that concerns about falling into a wage-price spiral deserve to be taken seriously," its analysts said it a note on Thursday.

A ‘firestorm’ of hawkish Fed speculation erupts following strong U.S. inflation reading -- How hawkish will the Federal Reserve be this year? At the moment, Wall Street economists seem to be telling their clients “more hawkish than we thought five minutes ago.” The strong U.S. consumer inflation data reported Thursday has set off what looks like a chain reaction of upward revisions to projected interest rates rises and where the Fed is headed with monetary policy. Fed watchers are talking seriously about an “emergency” interest rate hike before the Fed’s next formal meeting on March 16. The consumer price index rose 0.6% in January, with broad based gains. The year-over-year rate rose to 7.5%, the highest level in 40 years. In the wake of the data, Goldman Sachs said it now sees seven consecutive 25 basis point rate hikes at each of the remaining Fed policy meeting this year. The investment bank’s earlier prediction was five hikes. Economists at Citi said that their base case is a now for a 50 basis point hike in March followed by quarter point hikes in May, June, September and December. Marc Cabana, head of U.S. rates strategy at BofA Securities, told Bloomberg Radio that it is very likely the Fed is going to raise rates by 50 basis points in March and “who knows, maybe even 50 in May.” The talk about an inter-meeting rate hike before March 16 erupted late Thursday after St. Louis Fed President James Bullard said was open to having that discussion. Market analyst Mohamed Ed-Erian said the frenzy of speculation is a sign the Fed has lost control of the policy narrative. He said he didn’t want to see the Fed take aggressive moves because the market will price in aggressive moves again and again. “This is what typically happens in a developing country when a central bank loses control of the policy narrative,” he said. It is a strange time for the Fed. The central bank has been slowly “tapering” or reducing the amount of securities is is buying under its quantitative easing program started in the depth of the pandemic. The buying of Treasurys and mortgage backed securities is scheduled to end in mid-March. Some Fed watchers think the Fed may decide to end these purchases “cold turkey,” with the announcement coming Friday. Under the Fed’s QE program, the Fed is scheduled to release its schedule for the last month of asset purchases. “If the Fed releases that calendar at 3 p.m, it is pretty strong forward guidance they’re not going to do an intermeeting hike,” Cabana said. Three Fed officials were not as hawkish as Bullard in their comments the wake of the CPI report. Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin told the Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research on Thursday evening that he would have to be convinced of a need for a 50 basis point rate hike, Reuters said. In an interview with Market News International, San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly downplayed the chances of a half-a-percentage point hike in March. And Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic told CNBC after the CPI data that he was sticking with his call for four rate hikes this year, including a 25 basis point hike in March. Tim Duy, chief U.S. economist at SGH Macro Advisors, called these dovish Fed comments “nonsensical.” “It is just getting to the point where the distance between the Fed’s current position and reality is too wide to ignore any longer,” Duy said.

Jump in January consumer prices seals the deal on Fed interest rate hikes- Consumer prices increased 0.6% in January, the third time in four months that it has come in over 0.5%. Energy increased 0.9%, which isn’t a horrible monthly rate, but YoY energy prices for consumers are up 27%, just below their YoY peaks in 1974, 1979, 2005, and 2008 - not coincidentally 3 out of 4 of which coincided with deep recessions: YoY inflation is now 7.5%, the highest rate since 1982. My favorite measure, CPI ex energy, is also up 5.6% YoY, and tied for the worst since the 1981-82 recession as well: My rationale for tracking CPI ex-energy is that, unless energy costs filter through into the broader economy, there is no cause for alarm. But if the wider economy shows a sharp increase, then there is likely to be aggressive action by the Fed to bring the rate of inflation down, and that means slowing the economy, or even putting it into reverse. Inflation in new and used vehicle prices rose 0.9% in January, and 23.3% YoY, an all-time high (compared with gas prices, red): As I have forecast for months, house price increases (blue, /2 for scale) have continued to feed through into rents and “owners equivalent rent”(red), which constitutes 1/3rd of the entire inflation index, and in turn has also continued to increase, and is now up 4.1% YoY: What happened in the case of both prior cases where owners equivalent rent surged after house prices did - 2000 and 2006 - the Fed stepped in and raised rates aggressively, in both cases resulting in recessions, which in turn caused the rate of overall inflation to decline: This report all but seals the deal on the Fed raising interest rates in March. It increases the odds of a more aggressive .50% increase rather than a baby-steps .25% increase. I hasten to point out that, so long as the yield curve does not invert, the Fed can still achieve its desired result of a decline in inflation, without causing a recession - and the current spread between the 10 year and 2 year bond is consistent with an economy 2 or 3 years before a recession hits: Unfortunately, hindsight being 20/20, the Fed allowed itself to fall behind the curve. When house prices increased over 10% YoY consistently in early 2021, it should have realized that this was going to filter through into the broader measure this year, and begun laying the groundwork for tightening then, and probably begun to tighten slowly by the end of last summer. Now it is probably too late. But the Fed, like me, probably assumed that the US population would be fully or nearly fully vaccinated by last autumn, bringing the pandemic to an effective end, thus bringing labor and supply shortages to an end as well.

Goldman Sachs predicts Fed will hike rates 7 times in 2022 --Goldman Sachs predicted the Federal Reserve will hike interest rates seven times this year — up from earlier forecasts that predicted five rate bumps in a bid to tame out-of-control inflation.Goldman analysts led by economist Jan Hatzius issued the stepped-up prediction in a report this week just as newly released federal data indicates that inflation continues apace.The Consumer Price Index for January posted a 7.5% annual increase — the largest since 1982, the Department of Labor said Thursday.The investment giant expects the Fed to hike its main rate from its current, near-zero figure to 1.85% after the central bank’s leadership meets for the final time this year in December.The analysts wrote in their report that the Fed will issue incremental hikes by 25 basis points in seven consecutive meetings.In banking, a basis point, the smallest unit of measurement for interest rates, is equal to one hundredth of 1%.Analysts had previously anticipated that the Fed would institute rate hikes by 50 basis points.“Most Fed officials who have commented have opposed a 50 basis points hike in March,” the Goldman analysts wrote in a note.“We therefore think that the more likely path is a longer series of 25 basis points hikes instead.”St. Louis Fed President James Bullard has said he backs raising interest rates by a full percentage point by July.The last time the Fed raised interest rates by a substantial figure was in 2000, when it announced a half-point hike.Bullard said this week he has become “dramatically” more inclined to hike rates in order to cool inflation.Former US Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers told Bloomberg last week that he expects the Fed to raise interest rates at all seven remaining meetings this year.That sentiment was echoed by JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon, who said he would be “surprised” if the Fed didn’t hike rates “six or seven” times.

Mortgage Rates Hit 4.02%. Two-Year Yield Spikes by Most since 2009. Ten-Year Yield Goes over 2%. All Heck Breaks Loose - By Wolf Richter - The probability of a 50 basis-point hike at the FOMC meeting on March 16 spiked to 90% this afternoon, based on CME 30-Day Fed Fund futures prices, after this morning’s hair-raising inflation data for January, and after St. Louis Fed President Bullard’s talk on Bloomberg. The spike in inflation is now infesting services and has spread deep and wide into the economy. A 50-basis-point hike would bring the Fed’s target range for the federal funds rate to range between .50% and 0.75% (Fed Rate Hike Monitor via Investing.com): “There was a time when the Committee would have reacted to something like this [the hair-raising inflation report] with having a meeting right now and doing a 25 basis points right now,” said Bullard, formerly biggest dove in the house. “I think we should be nimble and considering that kind of thing,” he said.“I don’t think this is shock-and-awe,” Bullard said about the 50-basis point hike, as markets are already pricing it in. “I think it’s a sensible response to a surprise inflationary shock that we got in 2021 that we did not expect,” he said.All kinds of economists are now being cited in the media – this started a few weeks ago and has intensified since then – saying that the Fed will raise rates by 50 basis points on March 16, such as Citi economists today; or that the Fedshould raise rates by 50 basis points, or that the Fed shouldn’t even wait till March 16.In terms of quantitative tightening (QT), Bullard said that the Fed could essentially reduce its balance sheet at about the same pace that it had added to it, that pace having been $120 billion a month.And this should include a “second phase” when the Fed sells bonds outright, rather than just letting them run off the balance sheet when they mature, he said.“As a general principle, I see no reason why you can’t remove accommodation just as fast as you added accommodation, especially in an environment where you have the highest inflation in 40 years,” Bullard said.And all heck broke loose in Treasury yields. The two-year Treasury yield spiked by 25 basis points to 1.61% at the close, the biggest one-day leap since June 5, 2009 during the freak moments of the Financial Crisis. Now it’s not a crisis. Now it’s just the bond market, which had been in total denial until November, coming to grips with inflation and the Fed’s efforts to crack down on inflation. Jawboning by the Fed is finally working, at least a little bit:With this 25 basis-point spike, the two-year yield reached 1.61%, the highest close since December 24, 2019. In real terms, adjusted for CPI inflation, the two-year yield is still hugely negative, at -5.89%. So despite the spike, it is still a terribly mispriced bond given the huge amount of inflation:

Activist Group Reports that Fed Chair Powell Traded During FOMC Restricted Periods: We Fact-Checked It and It’s True - Pam Martens -An anonymous activist group called Occupy the Fed reported in a Substack article on Sunday that Fed Chair Jerome Powell traded on the final day of a Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on April 29, 2015, when he was a Fed Governor, and also on the final day of an FOMC meeting on December 11, 2019, when he was Fed Chair. Powell’s trading directly violates the Fed’s written policywhich prohibits trading “during the period that begins at the start of the second Saturday (midnight) Eastern Time before the beginning of each FOMC meeting and ends at midnight Eastern Time on the last day of the meeting.” The FOMC meetings are typically when the most sensitive and market-moving information occurs at the Fed, including votes on hiking or lowering interest rates and other confidential actions.Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan, Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren and Fed Vice Chair Richard Clarida have resigned over their own individual trading scandalsand not one of them has been charged with anything as directly in violation of Fed policy as trading on the very day the FOMC is in session.We fact-checked the Occupy the Fed report by downloading the dates of all FOMC meetings from 2015 through 2020 and comparing them to the trading transactions listed on Powell’s financial disclosure forms filed with the Office of Government Ethics (OGE) for years 2015 through 2020. We can verify that Powell traded on April 29, 2015 and on December 11, 2019. Both were the final day of the FOMC meeting. (You can read the minutes of those respective FOMC meetings here and here.)The charts below show what Powell sold on those dates. We have eliminated any purchase transactions to avoid any possibility that the Fed would claim that these were made for dividend reinvestment purposes.The FOMC meets eight times a year, roughly every six weeks. Multiply that by the six years of financial disclosures that the OGE has made available for Powell and you have a total of 48 FOMC meetings. Multiply the 48 meetings by two, since the FOMC meets for two days, and Powell had 96 opportunities to screw up and accidentally trade on an FOMC meeting date. But it happened on only two days during that six-year span of time – according to what we know thus far. And in both the years of 2015 and 2019, highly unusual activities were occurring at the Fed.The year 2015 would mark the first time that the Fed had raised interest rates since it slashed them to the zero-bound range in 2008. There was a great deal of media talk in April regarding what was going to happen in various markets when the Fed raised its benchmark Fed Funds rates. The Fed didn’t raise its benchmark rate until December 17, 2015. The year 2019 marked the beginning of an unprecedented, emergency repo lending operation by the Fed. While the Fed made public that the repo loans were being provided to its 24 primary dealers, only the Fed knew that six large trading houses on Wall Street were getting the lion’s share of those loans. One of the six was Goldman Sachs. On December 11, 2019, the final day of the FOMC meeting, Powell sold between $115,000 and $300,000 of two Goldman Sachs proprietary mutual funds. The funds are listed as “GS” rather than Goldman Sachs on his financial disclosure forms. (See chart below.)According to the Fed’s own H.4.1 report, on December 11, 2019, the same day that Powell dumped between $ 167,000 and $430,000 of predominantly stock mutual funds and ETFs, the Fed had an outstanding balance of $212.95 billion in emergency repo loans that had been used to prop up trading houses on Wall Street, including Goldman Sachs.A larger question in all of this is why Powell is even allowed to be holding Goldman Sachs proprietary funds since Goldman Sachs is supervised by the Fed. The Occupy the Fed report also makes the following charge against Powell:“Instead of providing specific dates for the majority of his transactions, Powell improperly groups trades of like securities behind the phrase ‘Multiple’ on every OGE form he has filed.”

Boston Fed taps Susan Collins as new president, 2022 FOMC voter The Federal Reserve Bank of Boston announced that Susan Collins, an economist currently at the University of Michigan, will be its new president, marking the first time a Black woman will lead one of the U.S. central bank’s 12 districts. Collins, who earned a doctorate in economics at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, replaces Eric Rosengren, who stepped down last year. “Collins is an international macroeconomist with a lifelong interest in policy and its impact on living standards,” the Boston Fed said in a statement Wednesday. She was approved by the Fed’s Board of Governors after selection by the Boston directors.

Lisa Cook’s Federal Reserve nomination opens spigot of Republican vitriol - Economist Lisa D. Cook is a leader in her field. She has a PhD in economics from the University of California at Berkeley and is a tenured professor of economics at Michigan State University. She served as a senior adviser to the Treasury Department under Presidents Bill Clinton and George W. Bush. She played a major role in managing the euro-zone debt crisis when she served on President Barack Obama’s Council of Economic Advisers. She’s currently a director of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago and on the executive committee of the American Economic Association.This extensive experience — in academia and in crisis situations — is why President Biden nominated her to be on the Federal Reserve Board. And it’s why many prominent economists, including former Fed chair Ben Bernanke (appointed by Mr. Bush), strongly support her.Yet Republicans keep attacking her. Sen. Kevin Cramer (R-N.D.) called her “fundamentally not qualified,” and Fox News host Tucker Carlson went as far as to judge her “economically illiterate” and “unqualified to teach junior college econ 101.” It’s not unusual to see Republicans go after one of Mr. Biden’s nominees, but the level of vitriol directed at Ms. Cook is noteworthy.Did we mention that Ms. Cook would be the first Black woman ever on the Fed’s board? There appears to be a pattern here. When Mr. Biden recently reaffirmed his campaign pledge to nominate a qualified Black woman to serve on the Supreme Court, Sen. John Neely Kennedy (R-La.) reportedly said he was concerned the nominee wouldn’t know “a law book from a J. Crew catalog.” And Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Tex.) said, “Black women are, what, 6 percent of the U.S. population? [Biden’s] saying to 94 percent of Americans, ‘I don’t give a damn about you.’ ”In the case of Ms. Cook, some Republicans have claimed she knows little about the Fed and macroeconomics. That could not be further from the truth. She is an expert on financial crises, developing countries and the role patents and innovation play in growth. She made it clear at her confirmation hearing that she would prioritize fighting the current inflation problem. She described seeing the devastating impact of high inflation firsthand in developing nations. Last June, she told The Post she was already concerned about how inflation would impact retirees, among others. Some Republicans have zeroed in on her research on long-standing racial disparities in the economy, which they characterize as unrelated to the macroeconomy. That criticism reveals their own ignorance. The fact that some Americans are not able to reach their full potential, even today, because of discrimination and other barriers harms the economy. One of those who encouraged Ms. Cook to keep studying this interrelationship was Nobel Prize winner Milton Friedman, the avatar of free-market economics.

Six High Frequency Indicators for the Economy -- These indicators are mostly for travel and entertainment. There has been a clear negative impact from the omicron variant of COVID that might be starting to ease. The TSA is providing daily travel numbers. This data is as of February 6th.This data shows the 7-day average of daily total traveler throughput from the TSA for 2019 (Light Blue), 2020 (Black), 2021 (Blue) and 2021 (Red). The dashed line is the percent of 2019 for the seven-day average. The 7-day average is down 20.6% from the same day in 2019 (79.4% of 2019). (Dashed line) Air travel had been off about 20% relative to 2019 for most of the second half of 2021 (with some ups and downs) - but picked up over the Thanksgiving and Christmas holidays (solid leisure travel) - and has declined in early 2022 (omicron / weak business travel). The second graph shows the 7-day average of the year-over-year change in diners as tabulated by OpenTable for the US and several selected cities. This data is updated through February 5, 2022. This data is "a sample of restaurants on the OpenTable network across all channels: online reservations, phone reservations, and walk-ins. For year-over-year comparisons by day, we compare to the same day of the week from the same week in the previous year." Dining was mostly moving sideways but declined during the winter wave of COVID and is now increasing. The 7-day average for the US is down 14% compared to 2019.This data shows domestic box office for each week and the median for the years 2016 through 2019 (dashed light blue). The data is from BoxOfficeMojo through February 3rd. Movie ticket sales were at $46 million last week, down about 73% from the median for the week. This graph shows the seasonal pattern for the hotel occupancy rate using the four-week average. The red line is for 2022, black is 2020, blue is the median, and dashed light blue is for 2021. This data is through January 29th. The occupancy rate was down 12.2% compared to the same week in 2019. The 4-week average of the occupancy rate is below the median rate for the previous 20 years (Blue). graph is from Apple mobility. : "This data is generated by counting the number of requests made to Apple Maps for directions in select countries/regions, sub-regions, and cities." This data is through February 4th for the United States and several selected cities. . According to the Apple data directions requests, public transit in the 7-day average for the US is at 99% of the January 2020 level. Here is some interesting data on New York subway usage. This graph shows how much MTA traffic has recovered in each borough (Graph starts at first week in January 2020 and 100 = 2019 average). Manhattan is at about 31% of normal. This data is through Friday, February 4th.

A Balanced Response to Inflation by Joseph E. Stiglitz - Project Syndicate - Joseph E. Stiglitz - Although some supply shortages were anticipated as the global economy reopened after the COVID-19 lockdowns, they have proved more pervasive, and less transitory, than had been hoped. In a market economy that is governed at least in part by the laws of supply and demand, one expects shortages to be reflected in prices. And when individual price increases are lumped together, we call that inflation, which is now at levels not seen for many years. Nonetheless, my biggest concern is that central banks will overreact, raising interest rates excessively and hampering the nascent recovery. As always, those at the bottom of the income scale would suffer the most in this scenario. Several things stand out in the latest data. First, the inflation rate has been volatile. Last month, the media made a big deal out of the 7% annual inflation rate in the United States, while failing to note that the December rate was little more than half that of the October rate. With no evidence of spiraling inflation, market expectations – reflected in the difference in returns on inflation-indexed and non-inflation-indexed bonds – have been duly muted. One major source of higher inflation has been energy prices, which rose at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 30% in 2021. There is a reason why these prices are excluded from “core inflation.” As the world moves away from fossil fuels – as it must to mitigate climate change – some transitional costs are likely, because investment in fossil fuels may decline faster than alternative supplies increase. But what we are seeing today is a naked exercise of oil producers’ market power. Knowing that their days are numbered, oil companies are reaping whatever returns they still can. The pandemic did expose a lack of economic resilience. “Just-in-time” inventory systems work well as long as there is no systemic problem. But if A is needed to produce B, and B is needed to produce C, and so on, it is easy to see how even a small disruption can have outsize consequences. Similarly, a market economy tends not to adapt so well to big changes like a near-complete shutdown followed by a restart. And that difficult transition came after decades of shortchanging workers, especially those at the bottom of the pay scale. It is no wonder that the US is experiencing a “Great Resignation,” with workers quitting their jobs to seek better opportunities. If the resulting reduction in labor supply translates into wage increases, it would begin to rectify decades of weak to nonexistent real (inflation-adjusted) wage growth. By contrast, rushing to dampen demand every time wages start to increase is a surefire way to ensure that workers’ pay is ratcheted down over time. With the US Federal Reserve now considering a new policy stance, it is worth noting that periods of rapid structural change often call for a higher optimal inflation rate, owing to the downward nominal rigidities of wages and prices (meaning that what goes up rarely comes down). We are in such a period now, and we shouldn’t panic if inflation exceeds the central bank’s 2% target – a rate for which there is no economic justification.

Inflation: Where do we go from here? - In just the past two decades, Congress and several administrations, with full support from the Federal Reserve, have grown our budget deficit to over 130 percent of GDP with no end in sight. This increase has put the U.S. among the top 10 worst deficits in the world, alongside Greece and Italy. According to the U.S. Treasury Department’s recent Financial Report of the U.S. Government, “The current fiscal policy of the U.S. is not sustainable.” This cannot continue, and the Federal Reserve must immediately cease aiding and abetting it. The scourge of inflation is upon us again. For a playbook on how we might deal with it, we can look to the period from the late 1970s through the 1980s, when we dealt with it successfully, albeit with extreme pain and disruption. The cause of inflation during the 1970s is straightforward. President Kennedy was assassinated in 1964, and Vice President Lyndon Johnson became president. Johnson decided to expand greatly an already costly and hugely unpopular war in Vietnam without raising taxes to pay for it. Then, he declared a very expensive war against poverty by implementing extremely costly social welfare programs, again without raising taxes to pay for them. The Federal Reserve expanded the supply of money to accommodate the massive deficit spending and kept interest rates at moderate levels. President Nixon inherited both the war in Vietnam and the growing deficits, but he became so weakened by the Watergate scandal he had little political capital to spend on fighting inflation and ultimately was forced to resign from office. When President Carter was elected in 1976, rapidly increasing prices, particularly for petroleum used to heat homes and fuel cars, were becoming a major political issue. The impact was felt in the financial world causing pressure on interest rates and threatening banks and thrifts, particularly those making long-term, fixed-rate loans. Carter turned to Paul Volcker, who was then serving as president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, naming him chairman of the Federal Reserve Board in 1979 with the mandate to do whatever it might take to eradicate inflation. Volcker responded with alacrity, boldness and determination, raising the prime rate ultimately to an unheard of 21.5 percent. This in turn led to two recessions, a depression in the agricultural sector, a collapse in energy prices, massive business and personal bankruptcies, as well as over 3,000 bank and thrift failures, including some of the largest banks in the nation. Things were so serious that the Fed and Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) planned for the possible nationalization of the nation’s largest banks if their loans to third-world countries defaulted. All who were involved in implementing these policies believed we had no realistic choice. The longer it took to eradicate inflation, the more pain and hardship it would inflict, particularly on our middle- and lower-income Americans. In addition to monetary policy, fiscal policy is today far looser than in the 1970s. The federal debt stood at $5.5 trillion, or roughly 55 percent of GDP, at the end of the Clinton administration in 2000. A little over 20 years after Clinton left office, the federal deficit had increased nearly six-fold, much of which has been monetized by the Fed. President Biden shows no sign of being willing to urge Fed Chairman Jerome Powell to follow in Volcker’s footsteps. Powell, like his two immediate predecessors, shows no signs of being willing to do so, either. Nor does there appear to be much appetite among congressional leaders for going down that path. The COVID-19 pandemic took center stage about two years ago. Congress, backed by two administrations, has been throwing trillions of dollars at it with a seemingly insatiable desire to run up even more spending — inflationary consequences be damned.

On inflation, we can learn from the mistakes of the past — or repeat them -- Lawrence H. Summers -- A year ago I warned that “there is a chance that macroeconomic stimulus on a scale closer to World War II levels than normal recession levels will set off inflation pressures of a kind we have not seen in a generation.” At the time, the much-greater optimism of the Biden administration and Federal Reserve were in line with the consensus views. The Survey of Professional Forecasters expected 2 percent inflation and essentially saw no possibility that core inflation would exceed 4 percent in 2021. It came in at 4.9 percent, and the consumer price index was up 7 percent — with huge consequences for consumer sentiment, President Biden’s approval rating and the sense that the country was on the right track.Where did the consensus go wrong? What are the implications for judging the current economy? And what must be done now to contain inflation?The largest errors a year ago came from a deep faith in inertia. After 40 years of almost totally stable inflation, most observers failed to recognize that pursuing fiscal and monetary policy on a transcendent scale to increase demand, at a time when covid-19 was likely to curtail the supply of labor and goods, risked generating a huge overflow of demand. Similarly, after an extended post-financial-crisis period of sluggish growth, they failed to appreciate just how quickly the economy could shift from being demand-constrained to supply-constrained.It is wrong to blame inflation on the slower-than-expected retreat of covid. Indeed, Jason Furman, chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers under President Barack Obama, has raised the serious possibility that inflation would have been even higher in 2021 without the delta variant’s negative effect on demand for services.Now, the consensus view is that inflation will fall below 3 percent by the end of the year as unemployment continues to decline. Unfortunately, I fear that is likely a repeat of last year’s wishful thinking.

Inflation and the policy response in 2022 *by Josh Bivens -EPI Blog -As the inflation debate continues, it’s worth reiterating some important points that policymakers should keep in mind in coming months as they ponder what to do about inflation that emerged last year.

• The argument that too-generous fiscal relief and recovery efforts played a large role in the 2021 acceleration of inflation by overheating the economy is weak, even after accounting for rapid growth in the last quarter of 2021.
• The COVID-19 pandemic is the primary factor driving excessive inflation through demand and supply-side distortions. Going forward, the economic distortions imposed by COVID-19 are highly likely to become less extreme in 2022, providing relief on inflation.
• The worry that inflation “expectations” among workers, households, and businesses will become embedded and keep inflation high is misplaced. What matters more than “expectations” of higher inflation is the leverage workers and firms have to protect their incomes from inflation. For decades this leverage has been entirely one-sided, with workers having very little ability to protect wages against price pressures. This one-sided leverage will stem upward pressure on wages in coming months and this will dampen inflation.
• Moderate interest rate hikes will not slow inflation by themselves. The benefit of these hikes in convincing households and businesses that inflation is taken seriously by policymakers needs to be weighed against their possible downsides in slowing growth.

Inflation in 2021 was not driven by generalized macroeconomic overheating. Dean Baker recently authored a strong post surveying the evidence about inflation and macroeconomic overheating. I’ll just add one or two points to his argument. In the last quarter of 2021, rapid growth in gross domestic product (GDP) pushed it 3.1% above the level it had reached in the last quarter of 2019 (the last quarter unaffected by COVID-19). Should this level of GDP have put severe stress on the economy’s ability to produce it without inflation? Not really—inflation was low (and falling) in 2019. The economy’s supply side has been damaged since 2019, but it’s easy to overstate this damage. While employment was down 1.8% in the last quarter of 2021 relative to 2019, total hours worked in the economy is only down 0.7% (and Baker notes in his post that including growth in self-employed hours would reduce this to 0.4%). While some of this is due to people working longer hours than they did pre-pandemic, most of it is due to the fact that the jobs that have yet to return following the COVID-19 shock are much lower-hour jobs than average. Since labor is only about 60% of the inputs into production, the 0.4% decline in economy-side hours would only generate about a 0.2% decline in output, all else equal. Could other parts of the economy’s supply side have grown 3% over the past two years to generate enough capacity to produce the level of GDP we saw at the end of 2021 without inflation? Absolutely. Trendproductivity growth between 2007 and 2019 would easily get you there (it averaged 1.4% annually). The component of productivity growth that we measure with any plausibility—business investment—has actuallygrown at an extremely rapid rate, posting 7.4% growth in 2021 compared with 4.3% growth in 2019. Non-residential fixed investment (NRFI) has been quite strong over the past year.

Short-term government funding bill introduced -House Appropriations Committee Chair Rosa DeLauro (D-Conn.) on Monday introduced a short-term bill that would allow the government to remain funded through early March and temporarily stave off a government shutdown. “Our country needs a government funding agreement to create good-paying jobs, grow opportunity for the middle class, and protect our national security. We are close to reaching a framework government funding agreement, but we will need additional time to complete the legislation in full,” DeLauro said in a statement introducing the continuing resolution. “This Continuing Resolution – the product of bipartisan, bicameral negotiation – extends funding through March 11 to keep government up and running while Congress completes our important work,” she added. The legislation comes as top negotiators on Capitol Hill have struggled for months to reach a bipartisan agreement on government funding for fiscal 2022, which began at the start of October. The House is expected to act swiftly on the bill as the chamber is scheduled for recess the following week. Multiple members are also set to travel abroad for research trips during the same period. If passed, the legislation would buy more time for negotiators on both sides of the aisle to wrap up spending talks and strike a larger deal to fund the government through the remainder of the fiscal year, which will end in late September. So far, Congress has passed two continuing resolutions, which allow the government to remain funded at the previous year’s spending levels for the current fiscal year to prevent a shutdown. If the legislation introduced on Monday is passed in the House and Senate, it would mark the third time Congress has had to approve a stopgap bill in the absence of a larger bipartisan agreement on government funding.

'Big problem': Spending snarl delays infrastructure money - Congress faces increasing pressure to strike a deal on a fiscal 2022 omnibus spending package for federal agencies that would free up billions of dollars for new infrastructure projects that are currently on hold. “One connection between infrastructure and the omnibus is that some of the money in the infrastructure bill cannot be freed up until we pass the omnibus bill,” House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) told reporters last week. She added that she was “hoping to reach a deal on topline spending very soon.” Senate Environment and Public Works Committee Chair Tom Carper (D-Del.), one of the architects of last fall’s $550 billion infrastructure bill that the Biden administration and Democrats have sought to promote as a top economic achievement, confirmed the delay is impacting the spending of some of those dollars. “It’s a real concern,” said Carper, who declined to get more specific. It’s not clear how soon the spending impasse will be resolved, though it likely won’t be by Feb. 18, when a continuing resolution funding agencies at fiscal 2021 levels runs out. Yesterday, House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer (D-Md.) acknowledged that reality. “It’s not there yet, so I expect to do a continuing resolution to continue the authorization for government to operate and be funded this coming week, and hopefully the Senate will do the same,” he said on MSNBC. Lawmakers are hoping to get a new deal in place that will provide fresh spending, including big increases for agencies like EPA (E&E Daily, Jan. 3). The partisan differences over a spending framework have been the same for months. Democrats are pushing for at least a 13 percent increase in domestic spending and keeping defense spending in check with a 5 percent increase, while Republicans say there must be parity between defense and domestic accounts. A flurry of meetings and trading of offers last week failed to yield a breakthrough. Appropriators insist once the framework is in place, they will be able to quickly settle the 12 annual spending bills that contain substantial increases for climate and clean energy spending across agencies. Lawmakers from both parties expressed frustration that another stopgap will further delay billions in new infrastructure spending. “If we just stick with the continuing resolution, that’s a lot of money that is not going to get out. It’s a problem, it certainly was not our intent,” said Sen. Shelley Moore Capito (R-W.Va.), the ranking member on EPW. Rep. David Price (D-N.C.), chair of the House Transportation-Housing and Urban Development Appropriations Subcommittee, said, “It’s a big problem for all of us.” According to Price, the problem is that infrastructure projects are funded in several different ways from various budget accounts. Some of those accounts allow for the spending immediately, while in other cases the dollars need to flow through the annual appropriations bills or through other budget adjustments.

Republicans urge states to ignore infrastructure guidance - Top Republican lawmakers are pushing back against the Biden administration’s efforts to encourage states to prioritize climate resilience, public transit and bike paths over highway expansion projects when allocating new infrastructure funding.Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) and Environment and Public Works ranking member Shelley Moore Capito (R-W.Va.) yesterday sent a letter to the nation’s governors urging them to disregard federal guidance on how states should use funding for road and bridge projects.The senators accused the Federal Highway Administration (FHWA) of attempting to enact a “wish list of policies” not outlined in the $1.2 trillion Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act, which Congress passed last year with bipartisan support. Both McConnell and Capito voted in favor of the measure.“These policies, such as discouraging projects that increase highway capacity and prioritizing projects that advance non-motorized transportation options, differ from the provisions negotiated and agreed to in the law,” they wrote in their letter. “The FHWA memorandum is an internal document, has no effect of law, and states should treat it as such.”Last December, FHWA circulated an internal memo to state offices about how to spend the historic $110 billion in new infrastructure funding.The Transportation Department arm encouraged states to prioritize repairing existing roads and bridges rather than expanding or building new ones. FHWA also asked states to make existing roads accessible to all modes of transportation, not just driving, while ensuring climate resiliency and equity.President Biden’s original infrastructure proposal included this fix-it-first approach, but that language did not survive Senate negotiations and the final bill does not require states to repair existing infrastructure conditions before expanding highways or building new ones.For many transportation policy advocates, that’s a huge problem.“We want to see states focus on repairing what they have before they build new things, and as they build new things have a plan to maintain it,” said Beth Osborne, who worked at the Transportation Department under President Obama and now serves as director of Transportation for America.“It’s more important to replace dangerous bridges than to build something new.”However, McConnell and Capito said the infrastructure law was written to provide states with the flexibility to use funding in “a manner that effectively addresses each state’s unique needs,” and the Republican senators disparaged the administration’s approach as overly prescriptive.With the fate of Biden’s sprawling climate and spending bill, the “Build Back Better Act,” imperiled, the infrastructure law may be this administration’s best avenue for enacting chunks of its agenda. And while lawmakers on both sides of the aisle came together to pass the historic infrastructure overhaul, disagreements about how the law should be implemented are just beginning.

Clean energy advocates demand action on 'Build Back Better' - More than 60 environmental and clean energy groups called on Democratic leaders to show progress this month on advancing more than $500 billion in climate-related spending contained in the stalled budget reconciliation package. In a letter yesterday, the groups called the provisions “Congress’ last, best chance to tackle climate change,” as advocates look to resuscitate the stalled “Build Back Better” bill that hit a West Virginia-size roadblock late last year. “The time to act is now,” said the groups, including the American Council on Renewable Energy, the Natural Resources Defense Council, Climate Hawks Vote, the Center for Biological Diversity and Citizens’ Climate Lobby. The reconciliation bill as currently written contains approximately $325 billion in tax breaks related to clean energy, advanced manufacturing and electric vehicles. Those provisions make up most of the $550 billion in climate spending, a total that has already been whittled down due to moderate opposition. Even still, Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.), chair of the Energy and Natural Resources Committee, voiced outright opposition to advancing the bill. He’s cited concerns about spending, partisanship and inflation. Progressive Democrats have urged leaders to restart negotiations with the goal of wrapping up a final bill by end of the month. President Biden is scheduled to give the annual State of the Union speech before Congress on March 1. The groups say the accelerated timeline is achievable. “We believe demonstrable progress towards enacting the best reconciliation bill possible for all Americans — including the Build Back Better Act’s climate and clean energy provisions — can be made by the State of the Union Address,” the groups said. “We urge you to move quickly and stand ready to work with you to get this job done.” Even though Democratic leaders and other lawmakers have expressed confidence in restarting the budget reconciliation talks, Manchin has repeatedly said he had not been negotiating with the White House since his December statements. Last week, Manchin said the bill, in its current form, was “dead.” And even though he has expressed optimism about the climate provisions, Manchin has also talked about starting talks from the beginning. Manchin told CNN on Sunday, “The ‘Build Back Better’ as it has been presented over, what, the last seven, eight, nine months, that bill no longer will exist, OK? Should there be parts of it? Do you want to talk about different things? I think the president said there might be certain parts and this and that.” Manchin, during a joint interview with Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska), said he wanted budget reconciliation legislation to go through the committee process. The House held numerous markups on “Build Back Better,” but Senate committees were crafting changes behind closed doors. “My biggest concern and my biggest opposition, it did not go through the process,” Manchin said. “Whether Lisa votes for it or not, being a Republican, she should have at least the opportunity to have input. It should have gone through the committee.” Manchin said of the bill’s provisions, “These are major changes. It is going to change society as we know it.”

Democrats nudge Biden to prioritize climate 'chunk' of Build Back Better agenda -- Democrats are exploring their options to tackle climate change after West Virginia's Joe Manchin, a pivotal Democratic Senate vote, declared President Joe Biden's so-called Build Back Better agenda "dead."Noting that climate is a top issue for Biden and many voters before the 2022 midterm election cycle, some Democrats are imploring the president to prioritize the area as he seeks to resurrect "chunks" of his once-sprawling $2 trillion legislative agenda. There is an "open discussion" among Democrats about how to revisit climate action this spring if COVID-19 cases have fallen and economic inflationary pressures have eased, according to party strategist Simon Rosenberg.Tensions between the United States and Russia over Ukraine have contributed to the sense of urgency surrounding climate action since the Kremlin's aggression "is being paid for through fossil fuels," Rosenberg contended."What a signal to send to the Russians that we are accelerating the movement away from fossil fuels, which is really the source of their power," he said.But suggestions, such as those from Rosenberg, are emerging at an awkward time for the White House. Biden and White House officials have promised to continue pushing for components of Build Back Better, but simultaneously, they need to promote his accomplishments before November's elections rather than dilute that message with his "to-do" list.A Politico/Morning Consult poll published this week found that fewer than 1 in 5 people believe Biden is doing “the right amount to combat climate change.” Barely more than a quarter of conservative-leaning respondents think he is taking appropriate action, compared to 10% of their liberal counterparts. Congressional Republican sources told the Washington Examiner that any climate action would likely emanate from the Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee, which Manchin chairs. But his demand for "regular order," which requires 10 Republicans to side with Democrats for a filibuster-proof supermajority, restricts the scope of any prospective framework.

Jill Biden Confirms Free Community College Won’t Be in Build Back Better Bill -First lady Jill Biden says President Biden will no longer promote two years of tuition-free community college as part of his Build Back Better agenda. Dr. Biden spoke Monday at the Community College National Legislative Summit in Washington, D.C. “Joe has also had to make compromises. Congress hasn’t passed the Build Back Better legislation yet. And free community college is no longer part of that package.” The White House is no longer actively negotiating with Democratic Senators Joe Manchin and Kyrsten Sinema, who’ve refused to support the Build Back Better bill. Democrats currently have just 49 senators available to vote in the 100-seat chamber, after New Mexico Senator Ben Ray Luján suffered a stroke and is not expected to return for weeks.

Dems face a sobering possibility: Build Back ... never - Build Back Never? The thought has crossed Democrats’ minds. President Joe Biden’s $1.7 trillion social and climate spending plan is dead as written, rejected by Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.). The Senate is moving onto a host of other issues that will take up the rest of the winter and possibly some of the spring. And some Democrats concede there’s a small but distinct possibility they could have to shelve the whole endeavor indefinitely.“Absolutely, there’s the possibility,” said Sen. Jon Tester (D-Mont.), who argued that Democrats can still assemble a productive midterm resume without a massive party-line spending bill.“If we’re able to get the appropriations bills done, if we’re all able to get the Postal Service done, if we’re able to get some stuff done on toxic exposure [in the military], that would be a pretty good record,” he added.Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer vowed in December that the chamber will “vote on a revised version of the House-passed Build Back Better Act — and we will keep voting on it until we get something done.” That’s not the strategy at the moment.Instead, the Senate is now in a long cooling-off period after the twin failures of “Build Back Better” and a push to change the Senate rules to pass elections bills. Democrats are turning to fixing the Postal Service, sexual misconduct reform, spending bills, a Supreme Court vacancy, the Violence Against Women Act and possibly changing the Electoral Count Act and sanctioning Russia.  Dealing with those items could take a couple of months or longer, pushing the Senate closer and closer to the midterms. Most Democrats concede they could not revive a tax and spending bill before April, and the final deadline is Sept. 30, when Democrats’ existing powers to push the defunct bill past a filibuster expire.Schumer and other Democrats are continuing to quietly discuss possibilities for a new bill and are not giving up on finding a way to bring Manchin on board, a party leadership aide said.“There’s individual conversations happening, I think there will be more in March happening. It’s not the singular focus,” said Michigan Sen. Debbie Stabenow, the No. 4 Democratic leader. “This is definitely part of our work on into the spring.”And whether Democrats want to pass a party-line spending bill before then depends entirely on whether they are willing to accept Manchin’s terms. In an interview, Manchin did not reject the idea of getting a bill done this year using budget reconciliation, the process Democrats would have to employ to get something done without GOP support. But the blueprint he offered would take careful time and negotiation — requiring his colleagues to accept a bill that looks nothing like the package that passed the House last year. His vision is more akin to a deficit-reduction package than one that ushers in the massive climate funding and changes to the social safety net that Democrats once envisioned.

Sen. Joe Manchin is insisting on overhauling election laws and keeping the government funded before reconsidering Biden's big spending bill --Sen. Joe Manchin said Tuesday that his top priorities in the short-run would be funding the government and overhauling election laws before taking up any party-line social spending and climate package."Those things are the highest priority we have right now," Manchin told Politico earlier on Tuesday. "And we can still do more than two things."He later elaborated that he wasn't part of "any organized discussion" except for overhauling the Electoral Count Act and efforts to strike a deal in a so-called omnibus package to keep the government's doors open through the year."We're going to spend all our time on that, and trying to get an omnibus bill for a budget," Manchin told reporters of his election reform push. His comments suggest efforts to revive the stalled social spending and climate plan aren't going to produce a skinnier version of Biden's major domestic agenda anytime soon. He torpedoed the House-approved bill in December and declared it "dead" last week.Manchin and GOP Sen. Susan Collins of Maine are leading a bipartisan group of 16 senators working on a broad range of election reform ideas centered around reforming the Electoral Count Act, the late 19th-century law that governs how Congress counts Electoral College votes and resolves potential disputes over which slates of electors to count.The once-obscure law came into focus at the joint session of Congress on January 6, 2021, when former President Donald Trump unsuccessfully pressured former VP Mike Pence to overturn the results, which he did not have the power to do.Collins told reporters on Monday that the group's discussions were zeroing in on clarifying that the vice president's role during the electoral count is solely ceremonial and raising the threshold for members of Congress to object to electoral slates.

Blinken’s Booby Traps – How The US Propaganda Paper Released In Madrid Proposes to Go to War With Russia While Claiming to Do The Opposite - Posted on February 7, 2022 by Yves SmithA soldier who lays a booby trap for his adversary thinks him fool enough to be tricked or lured to his own death. He thinks his enemy is inferior and deserves death. He hates him. The German expression for war planned and executed like this is rassenkampf, race war. The German generals who planned and executed the 1941 invasion of Russia, Operation BARBAROSSA, claimed they didn’t hate the Russians. Their war was krieg ohne hass, war without hate. They said that after their surrender or capture, when they were facing war crimes trials. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken (lead image, centre) hates Russians; thinks them inferior to Americans; fools compared to himself; deserving of the fate Blinken intends for them. The evidence is in the booby traps Blinken set in the document the State Department arranged to leak in a Spanish newspaper last week. It is called “NON-PAPER CONFIDENTIAL/REL RUSSIA Areas of Engagement to Improve Security”. The State Department has announced in a double negative that it has “seen nothing to suggest these documents are not authentic.”The paper claims to be a “response to Russia’s request that the United States provide a direct written response to Russia’s draft treaty proposal”. What follows is not a direct response to the seven substantive Russian treaty articles. Instead, it lays a booby trap for each of the seven Russian proposals with a reaffirmation of the US intention to continue with its plans to attack Russia from the territories of other states, from international waters and the airspace bordering on Russia – and much more.To camouflage these booby traps, the Blinken paper lists these intentions as “Concerns”. The Blinken paper has issued 55 lines of “Concerns” one for each of the 55 lines of “US Position”.Only three of the Russian treaty articles are identified in the Blinken paper – Articles 5, 6, and 7. By ignoring the first four articles of the Russian treaty the Blinken paper has declared its refusal “not to undertake actions nor participate in or support activities that affect the security of the other Party” (Article 1); its dismissal of the “core security interests of the other Party”; and its rejection of “the principles contained in the Charter of the United Nations (Article 2).”The Blinken paper also declares the US intention to continue to “use the territories of other States with a view to preparing or carrying out an armed attack against the other Party or other actions affecting core security interests of the other Party” (Article 3); to encourage “further eastward expansion of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization”(Article 4); and to plan to “establish military bases in the territory of the States of the former Union of Soviet Socialist Republics that are not members of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, use their infrastructure for any military activities or develop bilateral military cooperation with them” (Article 4).In the Blinken paper, that last point means it no longer matters to the US whether Ukraine joins NATO or not. The US intends to make war on Russia from the territory of the Ukraine across the Red Line.

Russia-Ukraine: Biden warns Putin in hour-long phone call --The State Department is urging Americans who remain in Ukraine to escape through Poland amid increased threats of Russian military action. The U.S. Embassy in Ukraine released a message to U.S. citizens in Ukraine on Saturday, telling them they should depart immediately using commercial or other privately available transportation options. "Poland has indicated to the U.S. government that U.S. citizens may now enter Poland through the land border with Ukraine," the message stated. "No advanced approval is required. We encourage those traveling into Poland by land from Ukraine to cross at the Korczowa-Krakovets or Medyka-Shehyni border crossings." American citizens must present a valid U.S. passport and proof of COVID-19 vaccination prior to entering the country. Travelers are "encouraged to present a negative test result from a PCR or antigen COVID-19 test, which will facilitate entry into Poland," the update read.Rep. John Katko, R-NY, told Fox News that he does not believe anything can prevent Russia’s invasion, and that the U.S. will have to “try and deal with the aftermath.” “The concern I have is that this is symptomatic of a larger problem with this administration,” Katko, a House Homeland Security Committee Ranking Member, said. “They really don't have a cohesive foreign policy and they don't project strength.” Katko also raised concerns over the unity that NATO has projected, saying that allies are tight but not necessarily on the issue of Russia-Ukraine. “I mean, you look at Russia is having separate conversations with Macron from France and from Germany's chancellor and U.S. president,” he said. “I'm not sure they're on the same page, and that's a huge concern going forward.”

Biden warns Putin of 'swift and severe costs' if Russia invades Ukraine President Biden told Russian President Vladimir Putin on a phone call Saturday that Russia would face “swift and severe costs” if it chose to invade Ukraine, the White House said. The call between the two leaders lasted about an hour Saturday morning as warning signs of a possible Russian invasion of Ukraine continue to grow. The U.S. has ordered most of its embassy staff to leave Kyiv, the State Department said Saturday morning, and officials are urging American citizens in Ukraine to leave immediately. Biden pledged that the U.S. and its allies "will respond decisively and impose swift and severe costs on Russia" in the event of an invasion, according to a White House readout of the call. “President Biden reiterated that a further Russian invasion of Ukraine would produce widespread human suffering and diminish Russia’s standing,” the readout continued. “President Biden was clear with President Putin that while the United States remains prepared to engage in diplomacy, in full coordination with our Allies and partners, we are equally prepared for other scenarios.” Speaking on a call with reporters, a senior Biden administration official characterized the conversation between the two leaders as “professional” and “substantive” but gave no indication of a breakthrough. “There was no fundamental change in the dynamic that has been unfolding now for several weeks,” the senior administration official said. “We remain committed to keeping the prospect of de-escalation through diplomacy alive, but we are also clear-eyed about the prospects of that given the readily apparent steps Russia is taking on the ground, in plain sight, right before our eyes,” the official said. The Biden administration has offered Russia a diplomatic off-ramp, proposing talks on potential agreements dealing with missile placement and military drills as a way to address Moscow’s stated security concerns. But those efforts have not succeeded in convincing Russia to de-escalate. Instead, Russia has continued to amass more than 100,000 troops at the border with Ukraine and engaged in military drills with Belarus. The U.S. and its allies have refused Moscow's demands that NATO shrink its footprint and bar Ukraine from joining the alliance. The Biden administration has threatened punishing sanctions and export controls should Russia move troops into Ukraine and has been engaging with European allies to come to an agreement on a sanctions package. The senior administration official said Saturday that those discussions are “reaching a culmination point.” The Pentagon has also deployed 6,000 troops to Eastern Europe to help secure NATO allies, including a deployment of 3,000 troops to Poland that was just announced on Friday. The call between Biden and Putin was scheduled as U.S. officials stepped up warnings of a possible invasion. White House national security adviser Jake Sullivan told reporters Friday afternoon that Russia could stage a “major military action against Ukraine” at any time, including before the end of the Beijing Olympics. There had previously been speculation that Russia could wait until after the end of the Olympics on Feb. 20.

Russia-Ukraine crisis: Biden-Putin talks yield no breakthrough - Russian President Vladimir Putin and US President Joe Biden have spoken about Russia’s military build-up, but the one-hour call ended without a breakthrough. The White House has insisted that Moscow faces “swift and severe costs” if it pushes ahead with aggression, while the Kremlin has denounced the United States’s “peak hysteria” surrounding the Ukraine conflict. “If Russia undertakes a further invasion of Ukraine, the United States together with our Allies and partners will respond decisively and impose swift and severe costs on Russia,” Biden told Putin, according to a White House press release. While the US was prepared to engage in diplomacy, “we are equally prepared for other scenarios”, Biden said, as the two nations stare down one of the gravest crises in East-West relations since the Cold War. The Kremlin said Putin told Biden Washington has failed to take Russia’s main concerns into account, and it had received no “substantial answer” on critical elements, including NATO’s expansion and the deployment of offensive forces to Ukraine. Washington and its allies have warned that the Russian military, which has 100,000 troops massed near Ukraine, could invade at any moment. Putin has slammed Western claims of an imminent military threat, calling the idea “provocative speculation” that could lead to a conflict in the ex-Soviet country, according to a Russian readout of a call with French President Emmanuel Macron as part of the frenzy of telephone diplomacy that seems to have failed to ease the tensions.

U.S. orders most embassy staff to depart Ukraine because of ‘threat of Russian military action’ - — President Biden warned Russian leader Vladimir Putin on Saturday of “swift and severe costs” if Russia invades Ukraine, the White House said, as the United States evacuated diplomats in preparation for a potential assault. Biden, in an hour-long call with the Russian president, said the United States and its allies would “respond decisively” to any attack, the White House said in a statement. But the call produced no breakthrough, as the exchange of recriminations over Ukraine threatened to erupt into what could be the largest military conflict Europe has seen in decades. With the drumbeat of warnings accelerating, a growing list of nations have urged their citizens to depart Ukraine. On Saturday, the Biden administration took a further step, announcing it would reduce its embassy in Kyiv to a skeleton staff and pull military trainers back from western Ukraine. The Kremlin, describing the two leaders’ first conversation since late last year, accused the United States of stoking conflict and portrayed Ukraine, rather than Russia, as the aggressor. U.S. officials have said Moscow, now conducting major military exercises in neighboring Belarus, could launch an attack at any time. “The Americans are artificially inflating the hysteria around the so-called planned Russian invasion,” Kremlin aide Yuri Ushakov told reporters following the call. “The preconditions for possible provocative actions of the Ukrainian armed forces are being created alongside these allegations.” At the same time, Moscow said it would pull its own diplomatic staff from Ukraine, citing “possible provocations by the Kyiv regime and third countries.” Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said the decision was in response to similar moves by other governments. “We conclude that our American and British colleagues apparently know about some military actions being prepared in Ukraine,” she said, according to the ministry. Months of Biden administration warnings took on new urgency this week, as national security adviser Jake Sullivan issued a stark assessment Friday that a Russian invasion could begin in coming days, likely starting with a barrage of air or missile strikes. While Sullivan said U.S. officials could not say if Putin has made a final decision, he said Russian forces are now positioned for a powerful strike.

 New nuclear deal ‘in sight,’ US says as senators vow to block it - A revived agreement to curb Iran’s nuclear program is “in sight,” the US said on Tuesday as international talks resumed in Vienna. Negotiators from Iran, Britain, China, France, Germany, and Russia returned to the luxury Palais Coburg hotel in the Austrian capital after a break last month for consultations with their governments. The US is involved in the talks indirectly. The aim is to restore the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, which collapsed in 2018 when the US pulled out. The JCPOA restricted Iran’s nuclear development in return for the lifting of economic sanctions. “A deal that addresses all sides’ core concerns is in sight, but if it is not reached in the coming weeks, Iran’s ongoing nuclear advances will make it impossible for us to return to the JCPOA,” the US State Department said. Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Saeed Khatibzadeh said that answers that “the US brings to Vienna will determine when we can reach an agreement. We have made significant progress in various areas.” Eric Brewer of the US nonproliferation watchdog Nuclear Threat Initiative said there remained “a combination of issues that require resolution,” including the scope of sanctions relief and what to do with nuclear equipment Iran had installed. “They are the final sticking points for a reason — they are contentious and require concessions that neither side has been willing to make so far,” he said. Russian negotiator Mikhail Ulyanov said the negotiating teams were “five minutes away from the finish line. A draft of the final document has been crafted. There are several points there that need more work, but that document is already on the table.” German Chancellor Olaf Scholz said the talks were at “the decisive moment.” However, a powerful group of 33 Republican US senators warned President Joe Biden that they would work to thwart any new deal unless Congress reviewed it and voted on its terms. Led by Sen. Ted Cruz, a long-time opponent of the 2015 nuclear deal, the senators told Biden they would use “the full range of options and leverage available.” The senators said any nuclear agreement with Iran was of “such gravity for US national security” that it would by definition be a treaty requiring the advice and consent of two-thirds of the Senate. Any deal that fell short of a Senate-ratified treaty would probably be “torn up in the early days of the next presidential administration,” they said.

Biden says he rejects findings of Army report on Afghanistan - President Biden on Thursday said he rejected the accounts and findings of an Army investigative report in which military officials reportedly criticized Biden administration officials for failing to grasp the situation in Afghanistan as U.S. forces withdrew. Asked about the report during an interview with NBC’s Lester Holt on Thursday, Biden said that it didn’t square with his impression of the administration's handling of the withdrawal. “No, that’s not that I was told,” Biden said when asked if the details of the investigation, which was reported by The Washington Post, rang true to him. “There was no good time to get out, but if we had not gotten out, they acknowledged we would have had to put a hell of a lot more troops back in.” Asked if he was rejecting the accounts or conclusions of the report, Biden replied, “Yes, I am.” “I am rejecting them,” he said. The Post reported earlier this week that the Army report stretches thousands of pages and contains sworn testimony from commanders involved in the withdrawal from Afghanistan last summer. According to The Post, military officials quoted in the document accused White House and State Department officials of not recognizing the swift advance of the Taliban as U.S. forces withdrew from the country. It reportedly points to disagreements over how to handle the evacuation of Americans and at-risk Afghans. The withdrawal from Afghanistan was a low point for Biden in his first year in office. While a majority of Americans support withdrawing from the country, the chaotic nature of the U.S. military exit spawned criticism from Republicans and Democrats of the administration’s handling of it.

Nearly 24M Americans still waiting for IRS to process 2020 tax returns -- As Americans get started on their tax returns for the 2021 tax season, the Internal Revenue Service is grappling with a backlog of millions of tax returns from the last tax season, The Washington Post reported. Nearly 24 million individual and business tax returns that require at least one action by an IRS employee have yet to be processed as of Jan. 28, according to taxpayer advocate data obtained by The Post. The newspaper noted that that number includes: over four million amended returns; over four million that had errors with stimulus payments that required them to be suspended; and close to six million pieces of correspondence that could not yet have tax returns completed before the IRS and taxpayers resolved issues. Congressional tax-writing committees were reportedly given figures related to the backlog of 2020 tax returns from the IRS’ taxpayer advocate service, The Post reported. Three people who spoke with The Post said that the IRS has been faced with several challenges, including responding to concerns about providing taxpayer relief and addressing the backlog of tax returns in addition to challenges of hiring and onboarding new employees. A spokesperson for the IRS referred The Hill to a letter that IRS Commissioner Chuck Rettig sent members of Congress this week, in which he outlined some of the challenges that the agency is facing. “The IRS pursued significant actions during the 2021 filing season to address the return and correspondence inventory. But, because the IRS lacked the resources it needed to reduce inventory to a healthy level, we are entering the filing season with a significant inventory of unprocessed returns and correspondence,” Rettig wrote to lawmakers. A lack of funding needed to maintain and train staff and a lack of “multi-year investment necessary to improve our technology and operating systems" are some of the specific challenges facing the IRS, Rettig noted. Rettig also noted that the IRS has taken actions to reduce its tax return backlog, including implementing mandatory overtime and launching surge teams to tackle time-sensitive issues.

IRS to drop facial recognition verification service -The Treasury Department is moving away from the controversial verification software ID.me amid concern over the company’s use of facial recognition technology.The IRS had announced last year that it would start requiring people who file taxes online to register with ID.me, which would verify the identity of filers with a video selfie.The program was supposed to be rolled out this summer for all IRS services, including making online payments and accessing tax credits.Critics have been sounding the alarm over ID.me’s use, warning that giving a private company access to that much biometric information is inherently risky and pointing out that many facial recognition systems have deep racial and gender biases.The latter concern has been amplified since CEO Blake Hall admitted the company uses technology that matches faces against a larger database rather than just other images of the same face.Several lawmakers from both sides of the aisle have spoken out about the issue, including Sen. Ron Wyden (D-Ore.), who revealed the Treasury Department’s plans to drop ID.me.“The Treasury Department has made the smart decision to direct the IRS to transition away from using the controversial ID.me verification service, as I requested earlier today,” Wyden said in a statement Monday. “I understand the transition process may take time, but I appreciate that the administration recognizes that privacy and security are not mutually exclusive and no one should be forced to submit to facial recognition to access critical government services.”Democratic Reps. Ted Lieu (Calif.), Pramila Jayapal (Wash.), Yvette Clarke(N.Y.) and Anna Eshoo (Calif.) sent a letter earlier Monday to the IRS demanding that the agency commit to not using any facial recognition tech for verification.Republicans on the Senate Finance Committee sent a letter to the IRS last week expressing concern about the ID.me partnership and demanding more information. An ID.me spokesperson directed queries to the IRS.In a statement on the IRS website, commissioner Chuck Rettig said that the agency understands “the concerns that have been raised” about ID.me. "Everyone should feel comfortable with how their personal information is secured, and we are quickly pursuing short-term options that do not involve facial recognition,” he added.

First Black federal judge in Alabama asks Biden not to nominate Ketanji Brown Jackson to Supreme Court - The first Black federal judge in Alabama spoke out against one of President Biden's potential Supreme Court picks in a letter addressed to the commander in chief that was obtained by NBC News. U.W. Clemon, a former chief judge of the U.S. District Court for the Northern District of Alabama, urged the president not to consider Judge Ketanji Brown Jackson for the vacancy. The retired judge said that there are "several exceptionally well-qualified black female aspirants for the Supreme Court" but that he "strongly" believes Jackson should not be considered. Clemon referenced the case Ross v. Lockhead as reasoning for his opposition to Jackson, a class-action suit she presided over on behalf of 5,500 Black Lockheed Martin employees. Clemon wrote that Jackson refused to approve the settlement that was reached, which would have provided $22 million to the workers. "She refused to approve the settlement because in her view there were no common factual questions," Clemon wrote. Clemon is named as a counsel at the firm that argued the losing side of the Ross v. Lockheed case. Jackson, who has a background as a public defender, has earned praise from progressives for her previous rulings on labor matters.

White House stands by school mask mandates despite some states lifting rule -The White House stood by the guidance on mask mandates in schools from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) despite states, in particular those run by Democrats, aiming to remove face covering requirements in classrooms. “We recommend masking in schools. That is the recommendation from the CDC. It is also true that at some point when the science and the data warrants, of course, our hope is that is no longer the recommendation,” White House press secretary Jen Psaki told reporters on Monday. Both New Jersey Gov. Phil Murphy (D) and Delaware Gov. John Carney (D) have announced they will end mask mandates for students in March. Psaki did not answer when asked if the White House stands by the governors’ decisions to lift mandates. “Our advice to every school district is to abide by public health guidelines. It continues to be at this point that the CDC is advising that masks can delay, reduce transmission,” Psaki said. “It’s always been up to local school districts to determine how they implement.” “It’s always been up to school districts. That’s always been our point of view and always been our policy from here,” she added. She said that the White House has constant internal discussions when asked if there will be a road map for states to eventually transition out of mask mandates. She said the White House is constantly communicating with the CDC on its guidance. Psaki said the White House believes there is a difference between the way Democratic governors in New Jersey and Delaware lifted mask mandates and the situation in Virginia, where Republican Gov. Glenn Youngkin wants to give parents the choice of whether to have their kids wear masks in school. “They weren’t actually that similar because what happened here in New Jersey and a couple of other states ... is that they pulled back the requirement. They didn’t make it more difficult for schools, school administrators, local officials to keep requirements that they made a determination would keep their schools safe,” Psaki said

 White House seeks to fabricate lower COVID-19 hospitalization numbers - The Biden administration is moving to slash the official number of COVID-19 hospitalizations by 50 percent or more by changing the standard for who is counted as a COVID-19 patient, implementing a central demand of Donald Trump and other advocates of “herd immunity.” The move, first reported by Politico, would separate the number of COVID-19 hospitalizations into two groups: those admitted primarily for typical COVID-19 symptoms like respiratory distress; and those who are infected with COVID-19 alongside other medical emergencies, many of which can be exacerbated by COVID-19 infection. Since no nationwide statistics separating the two groups were kept to date, this will mean that new, narrower hospitalization data will be compared against older data that included a broader range of patients.“The CDC [Centers for Disease Control and Prevention] and HHS is cherry-picking data again,” tweeted Dr. Jorge A. Caballero, who last month broke the story that the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) was ending daily reporting of in-hospital COVID-19 deaths. Precisely because the new proposed way of counting COVID-19 hospitalizations would reduce the official number of COVID patients in the hospital, implementing this method was a central demand of advocates of mass infection such as former president Donald Trump and Trump administration adviser Scott Atlas. At his rallies throughout the country in 2020, Trump declared that America’s “reporting systems are really not doing it right,” and asserted that doctors incorrectly claim that “everybody dies of COVID.” According to Atlas’ memoir, he fought to narrow the number of cases that should be counted as COVID-19 hospitalizations his “first weekend in Washington,” saying it should be the “top” priority of White House coronavirus coordinator Deborah Birx. Central to the demand to reduce what counts as a COVID-19 hospitalization is the claim by the fascist right and proponents of herd immunity that cases have been massively inflated in the United States. Atlas called for this policy because he alleged there was a serious “overcounting of COVID as the cause of many hospitalizations and deaths in the United States.”

 Mask debates generating sparks on campaign trail -- Masking is already becoming a lightning rod on the midterm campaign trail as Americans approach two full years of living with the coronavirus pandemic. Democratic leaders, most notably Georgia gubernatorial candidate Stacey Abrams, have come under fire from Republicans in recent weeks over photos showing them unmasked amid a crowd of masked people — in Abrams’s case, masked children. Republicans have used those photos to accuse Democrats of hypocrisy and invoke the concerns about children and education that helped drive them to victory in several elections last year. Democrats, on the other hand, are using images of Republicans unmasked in public places to accuse GOP officials of putting people in danger and threatening a fragile pandemic recovery. Republican Georgia gubernatorial candidate David Perdue’s campaign on Monday rolled out a video hitting Abrams and incumbent Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp (R) over the photo of her at a Black History Month event in a classroom full of students wearing face masks. “This is the Georgia Stacey Abrams wants,” the 16-second spot says. “This is the reality Brian Kemp has allowed. Unmask our kids.” The photo of Abrams, with the caption “Unmask our kids,’’ was Perdue’s banner photo on his Twitter page Monday. Abrams’s campaign said she wore a mask to the event and took it off while speaking so students tuning in remotely could hear her and for photos as long as other students were masked. The backlash comes as two Northeastern states, New Jersey and Delaware, announced school mask mandates would be lifted on March 7 and March 31, respectively. Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-Mich.) also faced backlash Monday from Republicans for posing maskless for a selfie in front of a crowd of masked supporters at a campaign event. The National Republican Campaign Committee (NRCC) called Slotkin hypocritical in a statement dubbed “Slotkin pulls an Abrams” on Monday. “Elissa Slotkin supports mask mandates for everyone but herself. She is a complete hypocrite,” NRCC spokesman Mike Berg said. Other photos from the event, which took place in Michigan, where there is no longer a statewide mask mandate, showed Slotkin masked. “The reality is, life is going back to normal in certain adult sectors but it’s not going back to normal for their kids and that’s what’s most frustrating for them,” said Andrew Romeo, a spokesman for the conservative State Government Leadership Fund (SGLF). “You see adults in situations where they don’t have to be wearing masks, but that same situation doesn’t apply for their children.” The SGLF and N2America, another conservative group, released an ad tying Democratic figures to school closures and mask requirements for students in the classroom, part of a six-figure national campaign launched last year. The 30-second ad, titled “Childhood,” shows a montage of clips of children watching adults attend crowded and maskless gatherings juxtaposed with masked children sitting in socially distanced classrooms. The ad has garnered more than 500,000 organic views since it was rolled out on Thursday. 9 Years Ago They Were Called the World's Most Beautiful Twins - Now Look at Them

McConnell-McCarthy split heading into November - The rolling fallout from the Jan. 6, 20201, Capitol attack is putting a renewed spotlight on the differences between Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) and House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.). The two men took opposite tacks this week in response to the Republican National Committee (RNC) censure resolution of Reps. Adam Kinzinger (R-Ill.) and Liz Cheney (R-Wyo.), marking the latest instance in which they’ve parted ways over the past year. McConnell and McCarthy have different political considerations — namely the political makeup of their conferences and how they deal with former President Trump — even as they work to accomplish a shared goal: winning back the majority in November. “Both are really quite strategic thinkers. ... They are different personalities, but they are similar in their leadership in that regard,” Sen. Kevin Cramer (R-N.D.), who served in the House before joining the Senate, told The Hill. “Kevin is really a cheerleader. ... Mitch is smart, cunning and calculating.” The two have opposite public personalities: McConnell is known for his strategic mind and dry humor but also for being closed-lipped even with members of his own caucus about his thinking. Trying to ask McConnell a question around the halls of the Capitol will frequently get reporters radio silence. McCarthy, meanwhile, thrives on popularity, is known for being talkative, and is closely attuned to what is driving conservative outlets and the party’s base. The two are at different points in their career: McCarthy, at 57, has spent years climbing the House GOP ladder and is aiming to capture the Speaker’s gavel for the first time if Republicans recapture the House majority after making a failed bid in 2015. McConnell, who turns 80 this month, has led the Senate GOP caucus as both the majority and minority since 2007. He also set a record in 2018, becoming the longest-serving GOP leader. The differences between the two leaders and their conferences, with the House closer to Trump, matter less now because Republicans are in the minority but could come into sharper focus in 2023 if they find themselves back in control of Congress.

Pence breaks with Trump: 'I had no right to overturn the election' -Former Vice President Mike Pence on Friday sharply rebuked former President Trump for suggesting he had the ability to overturn the results of the 2020 election, calling the idea "un-American." "There are those in our party who believe that as the presiding officer over the joint session of Congress, I possessed unilateral authority to reject Electoral College votes. And I heard this week that President Trump said I had the right to ‘overturn the election,'" Pence said at a Federalist Society event in Florida. "President Trump is wrong. I had no right to overturn the election," Pence continued. "The presidency belongs to the American people, and the American people alone. Frankly, there is almost no idea more un-American than the notion that any one person could choose the American president." "Under the Constitution, I had no right to change the outcome of our election. And Kamala Harris will have no right to overturn the election when we beat them in 2024," Pence said to applause. Pence's remarks were his clearest break yet with his former boss, who has for more than a year claimed without evidence that the 2020 election was fraudulent. Several judges threw out allegations of voter fraud alleged by Trump-aligned attorneys. Trump has periodically attacked Pence for certifying the Electoral College results on Jan. 6, 2021, after a mob of Trump supporters violently stormed the Capitol in a bid to stop the process. Earlier this week, Trump explicitly said Pence should have unilaterally overturned the results that declared Joe Biden president on that day. Trump later suggested a House committee investigating the Jan. 6 riot should probe why Pence did not reject the election results. The events of Jan. 6, 2021, have spurred talks among some lawmakers about strengthening the Electoral Count Act, which governs the way votes are counted and certified by Congress.

Rumble offers Joe Rogan $100 million to bring show to video platform - Social media platform Rumble has offered Joe Rogan $100 million to bring his popular podcast “The Joe Rogan Experience” to its video platform amid controversy surrounding his show on Spotify. Rumble CEO Chris Pavlovski wrote in an open letter on Monday that he stands with Rogan, who is facing blowback for COVID-19 vaccine misinformation on his show and his past use of racial slurs. "We stand with you, your guests, and your legion of fans in desire for real conversation," Pavlovski said in his letter. "So we'd like to offer you 100 million reasons to make the world a better place. How about you bring all your shows to Rumble, both old and new, with no censorship, for 100 million bucks over four years?" he added. "This is our chance to save the world. And yes, this is totally legit," Pavlovski said. Rogan signed an exclusive deal with Spotify in 2020 that was reportedly worth more than $100 million and included the show's library dating back 11 years. The former host of the TV reality series “Fear Factor” has been the center of controversy in recent weeks, forcing Spotify to defend the lucrative relationship. Musicians Neil Young, Joni Mitchell and others recently removed their music catalogs from the streaming platform in protest of Rogan spreading misinformation about the COVID-19 vaccine. India Arie also pulled her music and shared on social media a compilation video of Rogan saying the n-word around 20 times in old episodes of his podcast.

 Former Manafort banker sentenced to year in prison for bribery - A federal judge has sentenced former bank CEO Stephen Calk to just over a year in prison, denying a request that he avoid incarceration in a bribery case involving former Trump campaign chairman Paul Manafort. The judge, Lorna Schofield of the Southern District of New York, sentenced Calk on Monday to 366 days in prison and fined him $1.25 million. He will also be subject to two years of supervised release and be required to perform 800 hours of community service. “Today’s sentence sends the message that those who corrupt federally regulated financial institutions will be held to account,” U.S. Attorney Damian Williams said in a press release.

The 50 Biggest US Donors Gave or Pledged Nearly $28 Billion in 2021 – Bill Gates and Melinda French Gates Account for $15 Billion of That Total - The 50 Americans who gave or pledged the most to charity in 2021 committed to giving a total of US$27.7 billion to hospitals, universities, museums and more – up 12% from 2020 levels, according to the Chronicle of Philanthropy’s latest annual tally of these donations.More than half of this money came from just two particularly big donors: Bill Gates and Melinda French Gates. Shortly before their divorce became final, in August 2021, they announced plans to add $15 billion to their foundation’s coffers.David Campbell, Elizabeth Dale and Jasmine McGinnis Johnson, three scholars of philanthropy, assess what these gifts mean, the possible motivations behind them and what they hope to see in the future in terms of charitable giving in the United States.

• Elizabeth Dale: First, let’s acknowledge who is missing: MacKenzie Scott. The novelist and billionaire publicly shared that she had given over $2.7 billion in the first half of 2021. She then changed course, choosing not to disclose how much money she gave away in the second half of the year, or the organizations she supported, as an effort to deflect media attention. The Chronicle said it left her out because neither she nor her consultants provided the details it requested.Had the publication included her, even if only the gifts she made in half the year, she would have occupied the No. 2 spot again. Scott was only behind her ex-husband, Jeff Bezos, on the Chronicle’s 2020 list.In 2018, prior to their divorce, Bill Gates and Melinda French Gates topped the list together, but they didn’t make the 2019 list at all.Tracking where giving goes, even for the largest donations, is an imperfect science. Scholars, journalists and other experts must rely on publicly available information and details the donors themselves provide to compile this data, and the full details aren’t always available. For example, even in this list, we don’t know everything about these gifts, how much was already given and the ways organizations will put this money to use.
• Jasmine McGinnis Johnson: Following the police killings of George Floyd and Breonna Taylor, many foundations and philanthropists were thinking more critically about what was the appropriate way to fund racial equity and social justice nonprofits.In 2020, those gifts totaled $66 billion, making them the 14th-highest priority of the nation’s top 50 donors. In 2021, donations aimed at reducing racism and supporting Black-led organizations didn’t make it to a list of these donors’ highest 20 funding priorities.With police brutality continuing unabated and the growth of mutual aid organizations focused on race and social justice, I find this ebbing of interest surprising.However, I also see some reasons to be hopeful in other research completed in 2021.Many Americans, especially people of color, are donating to racial justice causes. In 2020, for example, 16% of all households gave to these causes, up from 13% in 2019.
• David Campbell: The biggest donors responded to challenges created by the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, sharply increasing their giving to social service organizations, including food banks and housing groups. In 2021, that giving receded so much that food banks and housing didn’t make it into a list of the top 20 causes for the biggest donors. One explanation for this may be that when seismic events influence giving, those effects diminish over time.In keeping with past years, these wealthy donors emphasized higher education and health-related giving, through donations to colleges, universities, hospitals and medical research.

 Jamie Dimon Lands in the Cross Hairs of Senate Banking Committee Chair Sherrod Brown By Pam Martens - As Wall Street On Parade, two trial lawyers, the U.S. Department of Justice, the Senate’s Permanent Subcommittee on Investigations andone of the bank’s former lawyers have suggested, the largest bank in the United States, JPMorgan Chase, has enshrined crime as a business model.The man ultimately responsible for this business model is Jamie Dimon, the bank’s Chairman and CEO since December 31, 2006. Since 2014, JPMorgan Chase has the unprecedented distinction of admitting to five felony counts brought by the U.S. Department of Justice. In each case, it was given a deferred prosecution agreement and put on probation. (See a sampling of its Rap Sheet here.)Now Dimon and the bank have come into the cross hairs of Senator Sherrod Brown, Chairman of the powerful Senate Banking Committee that oversees the megabanks on Wall Street.Yesterday, Brown and five of his Democratic colleagues on the Senate Banking Committee sent Dimon a letter demanding answers regarding the bank’s credit card collection practices. The letter opens with this: “We are deeply troubled by recent reports that JPMorgan Chase (‘Chase’) – the nation’s largest bank with over $3.2 trillion in assets – has renewed its predatory practice of robo-signing purported evidence of credit card debt to sue customers during the pandemic. We were concerned to hear that this practice has resumed after the January 1, 2020 expiration of Chase’s consent order with the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (‘CFPB’ or Bureau). We request that Chase provide detailed information regarding the bank’s credit card debt collection practices. Chase should not utilize robo-signing in pursuing these debt collection suits, or any other debt. […] The robo-signing reports come courtesy of a January 5 article written by Patrick Rucker and jointly published by Pro-Publica and The Capital Forum. That article revealed that “Today, just as it did before running afoul of the CFPB, Chase is mass-producing affidavits from the same San Antonio office where low-level employees generated hundreds of thousands of affidavits in the past, according to defense attorneys and court documents. Those affidavits are often the main piece of evidence that Chase uses to win its case while detailed customer records — and any errors they may contain — remain out of sight.”

Occupy the SEC to DoJ: Act on Congressional Mandate, Quit Rubber Stamping Bank Mergers - Occupy the SEC is back! as you can see from the letter embedded below. Occupy the SEC has responded to a request for additional comments from the Department of Justice’s Antitrust Division over an initiative to update its 1995 rules for analyzing bank mergers. From the agency’s announcement:The Department of Justice’s Antitrust Division announced today that it is seeking additional public comments until Feb. 15, 2022, on whether and how the division should revise the 1995 Bank Merger Competitive Review Guidelines (Banking Guidelines). The division will use additional comments to ensure that the Banking Guidelines reflect current economic realities and empirical learning, ensure Americans have choices among financial institutions, and guard against the accumulation of market power. The division’s continued focus on the Banking Guidelines is part of an ongoing effort by the federal agencies responsible for banking regulation and supervision.As you will see in the crisp, concise letter below, Occupy the SEC contends that the Department of Justice’s bank guidelines are defective because they ignore Congressional directives in the Bank Merger Act and use only the sort of Clayton Act size/concentration merger analysis used in other industries. The letter also mentions that the use of the Herfindahl-Hirschman Index screen is problematic, since it depends on how markets are defined, and that can both be gamed as well as a subject of legitimate debate. In banking and finance, where providers actively seek to bundle services and have considerable latitude to do so, it’s even harder to define markets properly.Occupy the SEC further points out that the near-total failure to reject any bank mergers and the speed with which approval is given….even under Covid…is proof that the reviews are pro forma.The problem with this type of process is that even when they seek to be broad-ranging, they seldom allow for basic issues to be debated. Consider this sentence from the Department of Justice request:Building on the responses, the updated call for comment focuses on whether bank merger review is currently sufficient to prevent harmful mergers and whether it accounts for the full range of competitive factors appropriate under the laws.The hidden assumption is that most bank mergers are helpful or at least not detrimental. In fact, every study of bank mergers ever done (until they seemed to drop radically in popularity as a subject of inquiry, around the mid-2000s) is that they all found that once a certain size threshold was achieved, banking had a negative cost curve. In other words, bigger was not better. Bigger was more costly to operate. And back then, the size barrier varied by study, but the largest back then was $25 billion in assets, which is not very large. There is no reason to think anything fundamental has changed, save the size limit may be a bit higher. Large banks still run massive legacy systems on mainframes. Those systems are fragile. They are even more fragile as a bank gets larger. And banks have no path for migrating off them. Conservative analyses say that well over half of large IT projects fail, and no project to migrate from a legacy system has ever succeeded. Aside from being massively risky, the NC IT bank IT wags estimate it would be pencilled out as taking at least 100% of bank profits for three years. Since big project never get done on time or on budget, that means even if it were successful, it would be more likely to take at least 6 years and eat all of the bank’s profits during that period.

 Congress moves toward banning members from trading stocks — House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Democratic leaders have greenlighted a plan to craft legislation that would prohibit members of Congress from trading stock, after months of resistance to a ban by Pelosi, CNBC confirmed Wednesday. At Pelosi's direction, the House Administration Committee is working on drafting the rules, and the legislation is expected to be put up for a vote this year, likely before the November midterm elections. In the Senate, several versions of a stock trading ban are under consideration, including one co-authored by progressive Democratic Sen. Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts and Montana Republican Sen. Steve Daines. "When you're elected, you're here to serve the people, not the elite, and [a stock trading ban] I think is a step forward, an important step forward, to restore the faith and trust of the American people in this institution," Daines told CNBC on Wednesday. Many questions remain about what types of investments would be prohibited, what incoming members would be required to do to comply with a new law, and whether family members of lawmakers would also be banned from trading stocks. Nevertheless, Pelosi's support for a stock trading ban in the House, first reported by Punchbowl News, represents an about-face for the speaker, and comes after years of congressional leaders on both sides of the aisle rejecting the idea of limiting what investments members of Congress can hold. In the past, opponents of a ban on stock trading in Congress have claimed it would hamper efforts to recruit the best candidates to run for office. Meanwhile, many of their own families have grown wealthy by investing in the stock market, including Pelosi's. Yet in recent months, Pelosi and her top lieutenants have come under growing pressure from rank-and-file members to take action and pass a stock trading ban. These increasingly noisy calls for a ban have been spurred in part by growing public support for a prohibition on lawmakers trading stocks.

 Bloomberg News Ran a False Headline, “Russia Invades Ukraine,” for 24 Minutes on Friday. Here’s the Untold Story. By Pam Martens - Bloomberg News last Friday ran the false headline “Russia Invades Ukraine.” For still unexplained reasons, the headline was left up for at least 24 minutes on the digital front page of Bloomberg News.But as the hundreds of thousands of traders around the globe that use the Bloomberg Data Terminal well know, Bloomberg News first publishes many of its headlines on the Bloomberg Data Terminal – the cash cow of Bloomberg LP that has made its majority owner, Michael Bloomberg, a billionaire. Bloomberg’s largest customers for its Data Terminals include Wall Street megabanks like JPMorgan Chase that it also provides news coverage on via Bloomberg News. (Sometimes that coverage leaves a lot to be desired.)Exactly when traders saw that headline is not precisely known. Bloomberg News said this in its statement: “We prepare headlines for many scenarios and the headline ‘Russia Invades Ukraine’ was inadvertently published around 4 p.m. ET today on our website. We deeply regret the error. The headline has been removed and we are investigating the cause.” Right next to that statement was the black box with the familiar reminder: “Before it’s here, it’s on the Bloomberg Terminal.”What is known, from the chart above, is that 101,000 contracts in the E-mini S&P 500 futures traded at approximately 3:55 p.m. EST as the S&P 500 futures plunged, ostensibly as a result of that headline. That was, by far, the largest number of E-mini S&P 500 contracts traded in a short time span all day. If someone needed to exit a short position at a tidy profit, that was a very convenient headline. Stock exchanges in New York close at 4 p.m. weekdays. But the E-mini S&P 500 futures contract trades almost around the clock, from Sunday evening until 5 p.m. EST on Friday.Bloomberg LP isn’t just the owner of Bloomberg News and the Bloomberg Data Terminal. It also owns a trading platform called Tradebook, which is in business with Goldman Sachs. Tradebook’s website tells us this: […] Goldman Sachs is not the first Wall Street firm to have a business relationship with Bloomberg. The giant brokerage firm, Merrill Lynch, now owned by Bank of America, was a minority owner of Bloomberg LP from its very beginning. After previously selling part of its stake back to Bloomberg, Merrill sold its remaining 20 percent stake back to Bloomberg in 2008 in the midst of the financial crisis.

Goldman Commodity Veteran Says He’s Never Seen a Market Like It --Jeff Currie, the closely-followed head of commodities research at Goldman Sachs Group Inc., says he’s never seen commodity markets pricing in the shortages they are right now. “I’ve been doing this 30 years and I’ve never seen markets like this,” Currie said in a Bloomberg TV interview. “This is a molecule crisis. We’re out of everything, I don’t care if it’s oil, gas, coal, copper, aluminum, you name it we’re out of it.” Futures curves in several markets are trading in super-backwardation -- a structure that indicates traders are paying bumper premiums for immediate supply. The downward sloping shape in prices is generally taken to mean commodities are severely undersupplied. The Bloomberg Commodity Spot Index, which tracks 23 energy, metals and crop futures, has touched a record this year. That has been driven in part by surging oil prices, which have hit their highest level since 2014. Diesel futures are in their strongest backwardation since 2008, excluding expiry days, according to data compiled by Bloomberg, while the structure of the crude market has also been booming in recent days. All six of the main industrial metals traded on the London Metal Exchange moved into backwardation late last year, in a rare synchronized bout of tightness last seen in 2007.

 SEC Set to Lower Massive Boom on Private Equity Industry - Yves Smith -Even thought the Biden Administration is rife with cronies and incompetents in important positions (Kamala Harris, Anthony Blinken, Javier Becerra, Pete Buttigieg…the mind boggles), Gary Gensler is showing what a capable and determined agency leader can do, even at a considerably weakened body like the SEC. As we’ll discuss, the SEC just published a simply brutal and badly needed set of proposed private equity disclosure requirements.Even though these pending rules are subject to a 60 day public comments period, the SEC made its bloody-mindedness very clear. On a fast reading of the part of the rules that sets up the public comment, every one of the many questions I read where the SEC solicited further input were of the form: “Or should we twist the zip ties tighter by also requiring Y and Z?”Gensler had indicated in a speech last November that he saw the SEC’s private equity oversight, established in Dodd Frank, as in bad need of improvement. We saw this speech as a very hopeful sign that Gensler and the SEC were serious. But the the draft SEC rule is vastly more comprehensive and well thought out than we dared hope. We’ve embedded it at the bottom of this post. You can a good idea of its scope and careful crafting if you read the opening narrative, on pages 7-28. It gives an overview of the deficiencies that it seeks to address, the thrust of the rules, and additional questions about whether they should be “improved” in various ways, as in made more stringent. This promising start quickly fizzled out. Yes, the SEC did engage in a series of enforcements actions, targeting common abuses like charging “termination of monitoring fees” which had never been contemplated in the fund agreements, and hauling up big name firms like Apollo, KKR, and Blackstone. However, this amounted to enforcement theater. This SEC letter, by contrast, makes clear that the agency has ample evidence in its files of continued abuses by private equity fund managers. It does not mention a particularly egregious general strategy: of admitting in the annual disclosure documents, the Form ADV, that the private equity fund managers are violating their contracts with investors. Admitting a contractual violation does not cure it, but the private equity barons appear to believe they can create their own alternative reality. And until Gensler showed up, that belief looked to be correct. That context will hopefully enable readers to appreciate the seriousness of some of the SEC’s findings:The Commission also has pursued enforcement actions against private fund advisers for practices that have caused private funds to pay more in fees and expenses than they should have, which negatively affected returns for private fund investors, or resulted in investors not being informed of relevant conflicts of interest concerning the private fund adviser and the fund. Despite our examination and enforcement efforts, these activities persist….This lack of transparency regarding costs, performance, and preferential terms causes an information imbalance between advisers and private fund investors, which, in many cases, prevents private bilateral negotiations from effectively remedying shortcomings in the private funds market. We believe that this imbalance serves only the adviser’s interest…We also have continued to observe instances of advisers acting on conflicts of interest that are not transparent to investors, provide substantial financial benefits to the adviser, and potentially have significant negative impacts on the private fund’s returns…In addition, private funds typically lack governance mechanisms that would help check overreaching by private fund advisers….As you can see, the proposals and the nitty gritty of both the suggested rule themselves and the many many issues where the SEC is soliciting input are extensive. And the amusing part is that the SEC is planning to hoist the industry on a transparency petard. It’s going to be hard to see the private equity industry try to come up with rationales for not giving information that any private businessman investing his own money would demand, like an explanation of how his money was spent, whether he hired any relatives or college buddies and what his deal with them was, and detailed performance accounting. In fact, the private equity industry runs a risk if they try to make too much of a stink that the great unwashed public may realize that lots of government pension dollars are going into investments with dreadful accounting and lots of grifting and self dealing.

DOJ seizes $3.6 billion in bitcoin stolen in Bitfinex hack - The U.S. seized about $3.6 billion in bitcoin stolen during a 2016 hack of the Bitfinex currency exchange — the largest financial seizure ever — and arrested two people, the Justice Department said.Ilya Lichtenstein and his wife, Heather Morgan, were detained Tuesday morning and are scheduled to appear at federal court in Manhattan in the afternoon, the Justice Department said in a statement. The two — who appear to have had colorful social media accounts ahead of their arrests — allegedly conspired to launder 119,754 bitcoin stolen after a hacker breached Bitfinex’s systems. “Today’s arrests, and the Department’s largest financial seizure ever, show that cryptocurrency is not a safe haven for criminals,” Deputy Attorney General Lisa Monaco said in a statement. “In a futile effort to maintain digital anonymity, the defendants laundered stolen funds through a labyrinth of cryptocurrency transactions.”

 Mrs (alleged) Bitfinex hacker has a fascinating online footprint - Alleged hacker and bona fide rapper/surrealist artist Razzledazzle, aka Heather Morgan, thinks toxic people suck like vacuum cleaners - One half of the couple arrested Tuesday for allegedly laundering cryptocurrency worth a cool $4.5bn, seemingly stolen during the 2016 hack of Bitfinex, has an interesting side hustle.Heather Morgan, who appeared in Federal Court in Manhattan alongside her husband Ilya Lichtenstein earlier today, is — according to her Twitter bio — a serial entrepreneur and SaaS investor. But when she’s not writing cheques for software start-ups, she is a surrealist artist with her own YouTube channelwhere she goes by the moniker Razzlekhan.Along with offering advice on leaving your hometown, wearing clothes and “berazzling” your home gym into a “CHIC ART MASTERPIECE”, Razzlekhan raps about ditching toxic friends like vacuum cleaners. Along with a subject close to our hearts — Silicon Valley’s propensity to produce copious amounts of BS. A ditty which, perhaps rather unfortunately for Morgan, ends with a line about someone’s email getting hacked.

Mrs (alleged) Bitfinex hack’s attempts to ‘maintain digital anonymity’ - The not-very-lowkey great crocodile of Wall Street is all over the internet this morning. As you might have heard by now, a married couple in their 30s were arrested in New York on Tuesday for an alleged conspiracy to launder some bitcoin stolen during the 2016 hack of the Bitfinex exhange. “Some” meaning approximately$4.5 billion’s-worth at current valuations, according to the Department of Justice.In a statement, Deputy Attorney General Lisa O. Monaco (!) spoke of the couple’s “futile effort to maintain digital anonymity” and boasted of the DoJ’s “meticulous work” in tracking down these alleged criminals despite their efforts to evade the law (allegedly).So let’s take a look at these alleged efforts to maintain digital anonymity, shall we? Particularly those of one half of the couple, Heather Morgan.As we wrote last night, Morgan has a YouTube account where she goes by the moniker Razzlekhan, a surrealist-artist-cum-rapper with a taste for laying into toxic friends and Silicon Valley. Can’t say we blame her. Alas, most of the videos were removed overnight.But for those of you who were too late for the YouTube videos, there’s a selection of clips still available on Soundcloud and rage-as-a-service platform Twitter. (For those of you who are no longer WFH this is probably NSFW unless you have headphones on.) Here she is showing a remarkable capacity for rhyme: This “rapper” with an alias of RAZZLEKHAN aka Heather Morgan was charged today in NYC, with being part of money laundering scheme that involved Billions worth of Bitcoin.I believe she should have already been in prison for life for whatever this is.pic.twitter.com/CwHVH4kf7y— Letting Go (@ProvideContext) February 8, 2022 And again, avec hubbie Ilya Lichtenstein (a tech entrepreneur and occasional magician), offering up incisive commentary on consumerism, social media and pancakes: pic.twitter.com/H13DGwLJ61 Showing a laudable knowledge of the Ottoman Empire: She seems to be quite into Turkey in general actually: Heather Morgan — the woman arrested on suspicion of laundering crypto linked to the Bitfinex hack — is also an amateur rapper. pic.twitter.com/qAK9WUfZCy There’s also this website(hat-tip to FT Alphaville reader Ricky Prickles has left the building for the spot), which describes Razzlekhan as “the great crocodile of Wall Street” who is “here to stick up for underdogs and misfits everywhere”. We were particularly struck by this part: Just like her fearless entrepreneurial spirit and hacker mindset, Razz shamelessly explores new frontiers of art, pushing the limit of what’s possible. Whether that leads to something wonderful or terrible is unclear; the only thing that’s certain is it won’t be boring or mediocre.

Inside the wild life of bitcoin bandits Heather Morgan and Ilya Lichtenstein -- At the height of the pandemic in 2020, when she wasn’t teaching herself Russian, creating Salvador Dali-inspired art or recording rap songs about the excesses of Wall Street, Heather Morgan was very concerned about cybersecurity. “Cybercriminals and fraudsters are taking advantage of this unexpected disruption, leading to a spike in scams and cybercrimes,” Morgan, an “entrepreneur,” wrote in a June 2020 column for Forbes. She added that she was particularly concerned about elderly victims being vulnerable to online scams. “People are not always as they appear online,” she wrote. Morgan, 31, and her Russian-born husband, Ilya “Dutch” Lichtenstein, 34, now stand charged by the Department of Justice with trying to launder an astounding $4.5 billion in cryptocurrency. And the self-described “crocodile of Wall Street” is the gold-bomber-jacket-wearing poster child for cybercrime. The stolen cryptocurrency was allegedly transferred to a digital wallet controlled by Lichtenstein, who describes himself as a “technology entrepreneur, coder and investor” on his LinkedIn account. Morgan described herself variously as a “serial entrepreneur” and an “irreverent comedic rapper,” who goes by the moniker Razzlekhan. By her own account, she is “basically a mix of Hunter S. Thompson and Diane Arbus with a sprinkle of Tom Green.” The Razzlekhan website boasts that Morgan is “More fearless and more shameless than ever before, she’s taking on everyone from big software companies to health care to finance bros.” She’s also seen rapping on Wall Street while wearing dark glasses and a leopard-print scarf. The couple, who are still in custody, allegedly used several different money-laundering techniques, according to the complaint. Court papers claim they set up accounts with fictitious identifies, moving the stolen currency “in a series of small amounts” that totaled thousands of transactions, in order to avoid detection.They also allegedly spread funds in different virtual currency exchanges — a situation that sometimes drew suspicion and led to their accounts being frozen, prosecutors said in the federal criminal complaint. Morgan and Lichtenstein spent the illegal proceeds on a $500 Walmart gift card, gold and NFTs, among other things, according to the criminal complaint. Prosecutors alleged the duo had a bag of cellphones labeled “burner phones” inside their apartment, and that Lichtenstein kept a file called “passport_ideas” on his computer. Before their arrest, the savvy tech pair, who lived with a Bengal cat named Clarissa, appeared to be rising, moneyed stars. They lived in luxury buildings in San Francisco and New York. Rent in their Wall Street building begins at more than $5,000 for a studio, according to real estate listings. When Morgan wasn’t rapping or trying her hand at a designer clothing line based on North African influences, she contributed columns to Inc. and Forbes, many of them based on her personal experience as a young entrepreneur. In one article, she wrote about how women were far better negotiators than men. “In my early twenties (and even late teens), I out-negotiated many experienced businessmen who were at least twice my age,” she wrote. “I recall one deal where my competitor was a loud and obnoxious ‘bro’ who had an overpowering ‘frat boy’ personality. However, he was actually very off-putting to the decision-maker, who was much more of an intellectual and an introvert.”

 IMF chief sees no universal case for central-bank digital money - There’s no universal case for central-bank digital currencies, according to International Monetary Fund Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva, who urged policymakers to carefully weigh trade-offs as financial innovation enters a new phase. So-called CBDCs could boost financial inclusion in some countries, while providing a secure backup for payment systems in others, Georgieva said. But she cautioned that their design must also take financial-stability and privacy considerations into account to avoid a potential legislative “deal breaker.” “Policymakers will need to resolve many open questions, technical obstacles, and policy trade-offs,” Georgieva said Wednesday. “If CBDCs are designed prudently, they can potentially offer more resilience, more safety, greater availability, and lower costs than private forms of digital money” such as “unbacked crypto assets.”

Banks told to be vigilant on cyber risk as Russia tensions rise -- European regulators are telling the region’s banks to keep a close eye on potential hacking attacks as tensions with Russia rise over Ukraine. The European Central Bank has reminded banks in recent weeks to keep up their cyber defenses, according to a person briefed on the discussions. And Germany’s top banking regulator said this week that hacking attacks are a key concern of bank executives in the current environment.  Tensions have soared as Russia amasses more than 100,000 troops near Ukraine’s border, though officials in Moscow have repeatedly said they have no intention of invading the country. A hacking campaign last month against nearly two dozen Ukrainian government websites was designed to “spread chaos,” a high-ranking official in the country told Bloomberg News last month. Russia has repeatedly denied state involvement in hacking.

New York Fed blog casts doubt on stablecoins' use as payments - Stablecoins are unlikely to be the future of payments despite their growing market value in the last two years, according to a Federal Reserve Bank of New York blog post.The first kind of stablecoin that’s backed by safe and liquid assets “unnecessarily” ties up liquidity — making them unavailable for other uses in the banking system — while the second type that isn’t fully backed resembles private bank notes, which have historically failed, authors including former New York Fed Vice President Rod Garratt and economists Michael Lee and Antoine Martin write. Stablecoins, typically pegged to a government-backed currency such as the dollar or euro, have become a vital part of the crypto universe because investors use them to buy and sell other digital currencies that are more volatile. Their market capitalization rose from $5.7 billion in late 2019 to more than $176 billion currently. Yet, the Federal Reserve and other U.S. watchdogs have said stablecoins need more regulation and should be issued by banks.

Lawmakers appear unlikely to limit stablecoin issuance to banks — Members of the House Financial Services Committee expressed bipartisan skepticism to a key recommendation by the Biden administration’s financial regulators, who have urged lawmakers to limit stablecoin issuance to federally insured banks and credit unions.The committee convened in a virtual hearing Tuesday to discuss a report on the financial risks of stablecoins and other digital assets, issued by the President’s Working Group on Financial Markets in November. Nellie Liang, the Treasury Department’s under secretary for domestic finance, joined the hearing to present the report's findings and emphasized the need for lawmakers to introduce some kind of legal framework for stablecoins and other novel types of digital assets. She testified that there could be regulatory "flexibility" to allow nonbanks to issue stablecoins. “Current statutory and regulatory frameworks do not provide consistent and comprehensive standards for the risks of stablecoins as a new type of payment product,” she said in her prepared testimony.

FDIC researchers say tech-savvy banks outperformed on PPP loans - Banks that operate more like fintechs outcompete their more traditional competitors on certain financial products, researchers at the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. found.The study used a new measure of technology adoption at banks to look at Paycheck Protection Program loan volumes in the second quarter of 2020. Banks in the top 15% for tech adoption made more loans than similarly sized competitors by 9 percentage points — and they gained customers outside their usual markets more often, the data showed. Researchers at the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. have found that banks that adopt technology similar to fintechs' are faring better during the pandemic. The findings prove the importance for community banks of adopting technologies fintechs use, such as cloud computing and online loan applications. In responding to the findings, analysts say banks that have not integrated those technologies should devise a strategy for doing so.

New FDIC leader shakes up senior executive ranks — The board of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. has approved a slate of senior agency appointments this week, the latest sign of the changing of the guard at the agency.In a press release issued Wednesday morning, the FDIC announced three new corporate officers: Kymberly Copa is chief of staff, Daniel Bendler becomes chief operating officer, and Harrel Pettway takes over as general counsel.“Kym Copa, Dan Bendler and Harrel Pettway bring deep knowledge and experience to their new roles,” Martin Gruenberg, who became acting chairman Monday, said in the release. “I look forward to continuing to work with them as they help implement our priorities in 2022.”

Acting FDIC chief signals shifts on climate risk, merger review, crypto - — The acting chair of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. is signaling a new direction for the agency that's focused on addressing the financial risks posed by climate change and digital assets, rethinking the standards for vetting bank-merger applications, and finalizing post-crisis capital rules.Martin Gruenberg, a longtime board member at the FDIC, became the agency’s chief for the third time after the resignation of Jelena McWilliams from the post on Friday. The departure of the Trump-appointed chair followed a power struggle with her Democrat-dominated board of directors in December.In a statement published on Monday, Gruenberg emphasized the “FDIC’s core mission” of maintaining “stability and public confidence in the U.S. financial system.”

U.S. Treasury defeats states’ suit challenging a rule on sold loans -The U.S. Treasury Department defeated a blue-state challenge to a rule that exempts buyers of high-interest loans from state interest rate caps.U.S. District Judge Jeffrey White in Oakland, California, agreed with the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency and threw out the suit brought by New York, California and Illinois. The states argued the rule by the OCC, an independent bureau of Treasury, will encourage predatory lending. The three Democrat-controlled states sued the Trump administration in July 2020 over the rule, claiming it encourages predatory lending through sham “rent-a-bank” partnerships designed to evade state laws intended to protect consumers. The OCC under President Biden has continued to defend the rule.

What is a "junk fee?" CFPB's inquiry sparks industry backlash - Rohit Chopra, the director of the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, raised hackles by launching a broad inquiry last week into so-called junk fees charged on run-of-the-mill financial products such as loans, mortgages and credit cards. "Service charges inflate ticket prices, resort fees hike our costs to stay in hotels, and our phone bills are often laden with mystery charges," Chopra said in a Jan. 26 press call. "These junk fees make it harder for us to choose the best product or service, since the true cost is hidden. Banking is no different." But this initiative has led bankers, consumers and policy experts to ask what exactly makes a fee a junk fee? Many bankers and lenders insist that fees they charge are related to specific types of work or services performed, and existing laws and regulations already prohibit excessive fees, so it isn't clear what problem the inquiry is designed to solve.

Los Angeles pressures card networks to halt payments on gun-building kits -Materials that people buy online to build untraceable guns are contributing to an increase in violence, and credit card companies can and should play a role in combating the threat, according to the Los Angeles County district attorney. In a letter to the card networks, District Attorney George Gascon said halting online payments for the purchase of "ghost gun" kits would show "responsible corporate citizenship." "American Express, Mastercard and Visa have the ability to go beyond what any law enforcement agency, legislature or city council can accomplish," Gascon said in the letter. "We are asking these companies to join us in stemming the flow of ghost guns into our communities by preventing a ghost gun kit from being sold with a few mere clicks on a smartphone or a computer."

Why auto lenders suddenly face more legal risk - A recent action by the Federal Trade Commission may prompt more lawsuits against banks — and bigger payouts to plaintiffs — in situations where consumers have been defrauded by auto dealers. The FTC’s move involves an obscure consumer protection rule from the 1970s, but its effects are likely to be substantial. It could result in lenders being on the hook more often for defrauded borrowers’ legal costs, particularly in cases where the car dealership has shut down and customers have nowhere else to turn for a refund. At the moment, defrauded consumers can go to court to recoup the money they paid for their car, but filing such cases can cost them thousands of dollars. Banks argue they should not be liable for paying customers’ attorney fees in full, and some courts have sided with them.

NY Fed Q4 Report: Total Household Debt Increases to $15.6 trillion - From the NY Fed: Robust Mortgage and Auto Loan Originations Help Drive Total Household Debt to $15.58 Trillion in Q4 2021: The Federal Reserve Bank of New York's Center for Microeconomic Data today issued itsQuarterly Report on Household Debt and Credit. The Report shows that total household debt increased by $333 billion (2.2%) to $15.58 trillion in the fourth quarter of 2021. The total debt balance reflects an increase of $1 trillion during 2021 and is $1.4 trillion higher than at the end of 2019. In nominal terms, the 2021 total increase in overall debt is the largest seen since 2007. The Report is based on data from the New York Fed's nationally representative Consumer Credit Panel. Mortgage balances rose by $258 billion in the fourth quarter of 2021 and stood at $10.93 trillion at the end of December. Credit card balances increased by $52 billion, representing the largest quarterly increase observed in the 22-year history of the data. However, credit card balances remain $71 billion lower than at the end of 2019. Auto loan balances increased by $15 billion, consistent with the previous two quarters. Student loan balances contracted by $8 billion, remaining roughly flat in nominal terms at the end of 2021 after almost two decades of steady increases. In total, non-housing balances grew by $74 billion. Here are three graphs from the report: The first graph shows aggregate consumer debt increased in Q4. Household debt previously peaked in 2008 and bottomed in Q3 2013. Unlike following the great recession, there wasn't a huge decline in debt during the pandemic. From the NY Fed: Aggregate household debt balances increased by $333 billion in the fourth quarter of 2021, a 2.2% rise from 2021Q3, and the largest increase since 2007 in both percentage and nominal terms. Balances now stand at $15.58 trillion, reflecting an increase of $1 trillion during 2021, and stand $1.4 trillion higher than at the end of 2019. The second graph shows the percent of debt in delinquency. The overall delinquency rate was unchanged in Q4. From the NY Fed: Aggregate delinquency rates were flat in the fourth quarter of 2021 but remain very low, after declining sharply through the beginning of the pandemic. The fourth quarter saw a continued decline in late delinquency offset by a small increase in the share of earlier delinquency. The low delinquency rates have reflected forbearances (provided by both the CARES Act and voluntarily offered by lenders), which protect borrowers’ credit records from the reporting of skipped or deferred payments but are now winding down. As of late December, 2.7% of outstanding debt was in some stage of delinquency, a 2.0 percentage point decrease from the fourth quarter of 2019, just before the COVID-19 pandemic hit the United States. Of the $424 billion of debt that is delinquent, $298 billion is seriously delinquent (at least 90 days late or “severely derogatory”, which includes some debts that have been removed from lenders’ books but upon which they continue to attempt collection). The third graph shows Mortgage Originations by Credit Score. From the NY Fed: The credit scores of newly originated mortgages had increased in the early part of the pandemic, but have declined in recent quarters, yet remain very high and reflect a continuing high quality of newly opened mortgages as well as a higher share of refinances. The median credit score on newly originated auto loans was roughly flat. ... In all, 2021 saw historically high volumes of new extensions of installment credit for both mortgages and auto loans. Mortgage originations, measured as appearances of new mortgage balances on consumer credit reports and which include refinances, were at $1 trillion in 2021Q4. In annual terms, mortgage origination volumes were at a historic high in 2021, with over $4.5 trillion in mortgages originated.

 U.S. Courts: Bankruptcy Filings Decline 24 Percent in 2021 --From the U.S. Courts: Bankruptcy Filings Drop 24 Percent - Bankruptcy filings fell again for the 12-month period ending Dec. 31, 2021. A steady decline in filings has continued since the COVID-19 pandemic began. Annual bankruptcy filings in calendar year 2021 totaled 413,616, compared with 544,463 cases in 2020, according to statistics released by the Administrative Office of the U.S. Courts. That is a decrease of 24.0 percent. This graph shows the business and non-business bankruptcy filings by calendar year since 1997. The sharp decline in 2006 was due to the so-called "Bankruptcy Abuse Prevention and Consumer Protection Act of 2005". (a good example of Orwellian named legislation since this was more a "Lender Protection Act").

 MBA: "Mortgage Delinquencies Decrease in the Fourth Quarter of 2021" - From the MBA: Mortgage Delinquencies Decrease in the Fourth Quarter of 2021 The delinquency rate for mortgage loans on one-to-four-unit residential properties decreased to a seasonally adjusted rate of 4.65 percent of all loans outstanding at the end of the fourth quarter of 2021, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) National Delinquency Survey. For the purposes of the survey, MBA asks servicers to report loans in forbearance as delinquent if the payment was not made based on the original terms of the mortgage. The delinquency rate was down 23 basis points from the third quarter of 2021 and down 208 basis points from one year ago. “Mortgage delinquencies descended in the final three months of 2021, reaching levels at or below MBA’s survey averages dating back to 1979,” said Marina Walsh, CMB, MBA’s Vice President of Industry Analysis. “The fourth-quarter delinquency rate of 4.65 percent was 67 basis points lower than MBA’s survey average of 5.32 percent. Furthermore, the seriously delinquent rate, the percentage of loans that are 90 days or more past due or in the process of foreclosure, was 2.83 percent in the fourth quarter, close to the long-term average of 2.80 percent.”Added Walsh, “The quarters right before the COVID-19 pandemic represented some of the lowest delinquencies ever recorded. Delinquencies are now approaching levels not seen since the first quarter of 2020, which is a testament to the strength of the U.S. labor market.” This graph shows the percent of loans delinquent by days past due. Overall delinquencies decreased in Q4.From the MBA: Compared to last quarter, the seasonally adjusted mortgage delinquency rate decreased for all loans outstanding. By stage, the 30-day delinquency rate increased 14 basis points to 1.65 percent, the 60-day delinquency rate increased 4 basis points to 0.56 percent, and the 90-day delinquency bucket decreased 41 basis points to 2.44 percent...The delinquency rate includes loans that are at least one payment past due but does not include loans in the process of foreclosure. The percentage of loans in the foreclosure process at the end of the fourth quarter was 0.42 percent, down 4 basis points from the third quarter of 2021 and 14 basis points lower than one year ago. This is the lowest foreclosure inventory rate since the third quarter of 1981. The percentage of loans on which foreclosure actions were started in the fourth quarter rose by 1 basis point to 0.04 percent, up from the survey low seen in third-quarter 2021 at 0.03 percent. This sharp increase in 2020 in the 90-day bucket was due to loans in forbearance (included as delinquent, but not reported to the credit bureaus). The percent of loans in the foreclosure process declined further and was at the lowest level since 1981.

Black Knight Mortgage Monitor for December: "Worst affordability levels since 2008" -- Black Knight publishes a monthly Mortgage Monitor report that contains interesting information on the mortgage market and housing. Press Release: Black Knight: 2021 Sees Record $2.6 Trillion Tappable Equity Gain; Home Prices Reaccelerate on Continued Inventory Shortfall as Rising Rates Increase Affordability PressuresToday, the Data & Analytics division of Black Knight, Inc. (NYSE:BKI) released its latest Mortgage Monitor Report, based upon the company's industry-leading mortgage, real estate and public records datasets. After a year of historic home price gains, homeowners' tappable equity – the amount available for a mortgage-holder to access while retaining at least a 20% equity stake in their home – has hit yet another record high. "Home price appreciation over the course of 2021 was unlike anything that's come before, and the incredible growth we've seen in homeowner equity is testament to that fact," said Graboske. "The aggregate total of $9.9 trillion represents an astounding 35% annual growth rate – which works out to an increase of $2.6 trillion in tappable equity in a single year. … "The interplay between prices and rates has significantly impacted affordability and borrower buying power in recent weeks. It now takes 25.8% of the median household income to purchase the average-priced home with 20% down and a 30-year mortgage, up from the 22.4% required at the end of Q3 2021. Interest rate jumps in recent weeks have pushed us – and quite quickly – above the long-term, pre-Great Recession average payment-to-income ratio of 25%, straight to the worst affordability levels since 2008.” Here is a graph on delinquencies from Black Knight:

• • At 3.38%, the national delinquency rate is within 0.1% of its pre-pandemic level and very near the record low set in January 2020
• • There are 35% fewer early-stage delinquencies than at the start of the pandemic, but nearly 2.5 times as many serious ones – although that metric is improving as well, albeit more slowly
• • The decline in serious delinquencies has been slower than might be expected given the large number of borrowers who have exited forbearance plans in recent months and remain in loss mitigation
• • The share of borrowers who have exited forbearance but are unable to make full or modified mortgage payments is worth watching
• • At 946K, there are still at least half a million more seriously delinquent mortgages (including those in active forbearance plans) than prior to the pandemic

And on the payment to income ratio:

• • It now takes 25.8% of the median household income to purchase the average home with 20% down and a 30-year mortgage, up from the 22.4% required at the end of Q3 2021
• • Interest rate jumps in recent weeks have pushed us rapidly above the long-term, pre-Great Recession average payment-to-income ratio of 25%, resulting in the worst affordability levels since 2008
  • While a 20.5% ratio has been the tipping point between market acceleration and deceleration over the past decade, severe inventory shortfalls are keeping home prices running hotter than they might otherwise

There is much more in the mortgage monitor.

It Only Took $11 Trillion in Free Money plus Forbearance & Eviction Bans to Perform this Miracle on Delinquencies, Foreclosures, Third-Party Collections, and Bankruptcies --What happens when $11 trillion of fiscal and monetary stimulus are handed out in 22 months? That’s how much it has already been: $4.7 trillion in printed money that the Fed threw at the financial markets and $6.6 trillion that the government borrowed and handed out. On top of which came the huge forbearance programs and eviction bans that allowed consumers to not pay their obligations, and not get their credit dinged when they fail to pay those obligations.There are a lot of consequences, including the worst CPI inflation in 40 years, the most splendid housing bubbles ever, along with spiking rents, and the hugest speculative asset bubbles ever with wealth inequality ballooning to the worst levels ever, and consumers, flush with money, went on a huge spending binge, leading to the worst US trade deficit ever.Consumers used some of this tsunami of money and the policies that came with it – the forbearance programs and eviction bans and the like – along with the house price bubble, to “cure” their delinquent debts, including by moving delinquent debt into forbearance programs where they didn’t count, and thus improving their credit scores despite the delinquencies.So we’ll walk through it, chart after chart, based on data from the New York Fed’s Household Debt and Credit Report for the fourth quarter.The mortgage forbearance program had the effect that delinquent mortgages were put on ice, and the “delinquent” status was removed, while homeowners didn’t have to make mortgage payments.Then the Fed’s $4.7 trillion in money printing and its interest rate repression triggered the biggest housing bubble ever. With home prices soaring, homeowners could sell their home, pay off the delinquent mortgage that didn’t count as delinquent anymore, and walk away with cash. Or they could modify the mortgage or refinance the mortgage with new terms with lower rates. And this is what happened.As a result, the 90-day and over delinquency rate hit 0.46% of outstanding loan balances, the lowest on record:The forbearance programs saw to it that troubled mortgages were moved into forbearance programs before they became delinquent, and the rate of newly delinquent mortgages dropped to a record low in Q2 2020. And each quarter, it kept dropping to a new record low, and by Q3 2021, it dropped to a new record low of 1.4%. But then the mortgage forbearance programs began phasing out, and by Q4, the rate of newly delinquent mortgages ticked up for the first time since 2019, to 1.6%: The number of consumers with foreclosures dropped to a record low of 8,100 consumers in Q2 last year and remained in the that range since with a barely visible uptick to 8,880 in Q4. By comparison, during much of the mortgage crisis, over 400,000 consumers per quarter had foreclosures: The official student loan delinquency rates had been running in the 11% to 12% range before the pandemic, despite numerous programs that allowed student loans to be deferred without triggering delinquency status.With the pandemic came automatic student loan forbearance, and borrowers stopped making payments, and delinquent loans were pulled into the forbearance programs and then were no longer delinquent. These forbearance programs will continue through May 1.So here we go: The 90-days-plus delinquency rate plunged to a record low in Q4 of 5.0%: And the still ongoing forbearance programs were preventing newly delinquent student loans from being tagged “delinquent,” and the rate of newly delinquent student loan balances dropped to a record low of 1.1%:

 Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey 0 Mortgage applications decreased 8.1 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending February 4, 2022. ... The Refinance Index decreased 7 percent from the previous week and was 52 percent lower than the same week one year ago. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 10 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index decreased 3 percent compared with the previous week and was 12 percent lower than the same week one year ago. “Mortgage rates continued to edge higher last week, with the 30-year fixed rate climbing to 3.83 percent. Mortgage rates followed the U.S. 10-year yield and other sovereign bonds as the Federal Reserve and other key global central banks responded to growing inflationary pressures and signaled that they will start to remove accommodative policies. With rates 87 basis points higher than the same week a year ago, refinance applications continued to decrease,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s Associate Vice President of Economic and Industry Forecasting. “Purchase activity slowed after the previous week's gain. Both conventional and FHA purchase applications saw proportional declines, resulting in purchase activity overall dropping 10 percent. The average loan size again hit another record high at $446,000. Activity continues to be dominated by larger loan balances, as inventory remains tight for entry-level buyers.” ... The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($647,200 or less) increased to 3.83 percent from 3.78 percent, with points decreasing to 0.40 from 0.41 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value ratio (LTV) loans.

"Mortgage Rates Hit 4.0% For First Time Since May 2019" -From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Hit 4.0% For First Time Since May 2019 In case it wasn't already clear based on the headline, the average is currently up to 4.02%. Keep in mind that is an average among top tier scenarios. It means that some lenders are quoting 3.625% and others are up to 4.375%. Adding any complexity to the scenario would mean a different rate. Also keep in mind that lenders are MUCH more widely stratified than normal, which is often the case when we've seen as much volatility as we have so far in 2022.​ [30 year fixed 4.02%]

The Impact on Housing of Higher Mortgage Rates -- Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: The Impact on Housing of Higher Mortgage Rates. A brief excerpt: Looking back at previous periods with similar increases in mortgage rates - like in 2013 when mortgage rates increased from 3.4% to 4.5% from May to July - new home sales fell from about 440 thousand per month to about 390 thousand per month. This was a decline of about 10%.There was a similar decline in 1994 when rates increased from 7.2% to 8.4%, and new home sales fell from around 730 thousand to 650 thousand. And in 2018, rates increased from around 4.0% to 4.9%, and new home sales declined from around 650 thousand to 590 thousand.There are other periods when rates increased - like in 1999 - and new home sales only declined slightly. Here is a graph of 30-year mortage rates. The arrows point to the three periods mentioned above....With 4% 30-year mortgage rates, we will likely see a slowdown in both new and existing home sales (based on previous periods of rising rates). It also seems likely house price growth will slow. However, the impact on inventory is unclear.An interesting question: Will higher mortgage rates slow investor buying? Higher rates will make buy-to-rent less attractive. Investor buying - and build-to-rent -will be areas to watch.There is further downside risk if mortgage rates continue to increase, or if we see a significant increase in inventory (something we didn’t see in previous periods of rising mortgage rates).

There’s Never Been a Worse Time to Buy a Home, Poll Finds | Time - The share of Americans who say it’s a good time to buy a house hit an all-time low of 25% in a monthly Fannie Mae survey.The pandemic-era surge in U.S. housing prices, combined with increased concerns about job stability and rising mortgage rates, are deterring potential buyers from trying to purchase a home. “Younger consumers—more so than other groups—expect home prices to rise even further,” said Doug Duncan, Fannie Mae’s chief economist. “They also reported a greater sense of macroeconomic pessimism.”In the January survey, 69% of respondents said it’s a good time to sell, an all-time high in the series that dates back to 2010. The lack of affordable houses, made even more acute by the Covid-19 crisis, is hitting the younger generations the hardest. An analysis from Zillow Group Inc. showed that home prices are rising the fastest in family-friendly suburbs, a trend that’s set to persist as a record number of millennials approach what’s traditionally been home-buying age for Americans. And the rental market isn’t helping either. The Fannie Mae survey found that consumers expect rents to increase by a record this year.In spite of a surprisingly strong labor market in January, the share of respondents concerned about losing their job over the next 12 months rose to a 10-month high. And, for the eighth month, a majority of respondents think the U.S. economy is on the wrong track. The survey polled approximately 1,000 people via live telephone interviews between Jan. 1 and Jan. 24. Most of the data was collection occurred during the first two weeks of this period.

 “Bad Time to Buy a Home” Hits Record Worst (Fannie Mae), as Home Sales Drop. Younger People Particularly Frustrated by Wolf Richter In Fannie Mae’s National Housing Survey for January, released today, the percentage of people who said that now is a bad time to buy” a home jumped to 70%, a record worst in the data going back to 2010. The “bad-time-to-buy-a-home spike started in February 2021. Particularly younger people were getting frustrated: Of respondents between 18 and 34 years of age, a record 83% said it’s a bad time to buy a home. “Younger consumers – more so than other groups – expect home prices to rise even further, and they also reported a greater sense of macroeconomic pessimism,” according Fannie Mae’s press release. “Additionally, while the younger respondents are typically the most optimistic about their future finances, this month their sense of optimism around their personal financial situation declined,” said Fannie Mae. “All of this points back to the current lack of affordable housing stock, as younger generations appear to be feeling it particularly acutely and, absent an uptick in supply, may have their homeownership aspirations delayed,” said the report. And the National Housing Survey hit another milestone: The percentage of people who said that now was a “good time to buy” a home dropped to a record low of 25%. Of respondents between 18 and 34 years of age, a record low of 15% said it’s a good time to buy: The results of the survey “are consistent with our forecast of slowing housing activity in the coming year,” said Fannie Mae. That’s already happening. Actual home sales, even on a seasonally adjusted basis, have been dropping for months. Sales of previously owned houses, condos, and co-ops in December fell by 8.3% year-over-year, according to the National Association of Realtors, the fifth month in a row of year-over-year declines, amid tight supply, rising mortgage rates, and lots of frustrations: But it’s a very good time to sell a home. The percentage of respondents who said it was a good time to sell a home dipped to 69%, matching the pre-pandemic record of June 2018: These are milestones amid the mind-boggling milestones of our crazy times. Fannie Mae started this survey in 2010, one of the data-collection efforts born out of the Housing Bust when everyone was trying to get a better grip on the housing market. So we don’t know what the respondents thought as home prices were actually declining in 2009, and buyers were scarce, and forced sellers powered the market.

 Leading Index for Commercial Real Estate "Falls in January" -- From Dodge Data Analytics: Dodge Momentum Index Falls in January The Dodge Momentum Index declined 7% in January to a four-month low of 152.9(2000=100), from the revised December reading of 163.7. The Momentum Index, issued by Dodge Construction Network, is a monthly measure of the initial report for nonresidential building projects in planning, which have been shown to lead construction spending for nonresidential buildings by a full year. In January, commercial planning fell 9%, and institutional planning slipped 1%. The Dodge Momentum Index had a stellar 2021, rising 23% from 2020 and reaching levels not seen in nearly 14 years. The recent string of declines, however, may be blamed on rising costs, logistical problems and shortages of skilled labor. Still, even as it has decreased, the dollar value of projects in planning remains exceptionally strong, especially for education, warehouse and healthcare projects. This graph shows the Dodge Momentum Index since 2002. The index was at 152.9 in January, down from 163.7 in December. According to Dodge, this index leads "construction spending for nonresidential buildings by a full year". This index suggested a decline in Commercial Real Estate construction through most of 2021, but a solid pickup in 2022.

Hotels: Occupancy Rate Down 16% Compared to Same Week in 2019 - From CoStar: STR: US Hotel Occupancy Surpasses 50% for First Time in a Month - U.S. weekly hotel occupancy eclipsed 50% for the first time in more than a month, but the index to 2019 dipped from the week prior, according to STR‘s latest data through 5 February.
Jan. 30 through Feb. 5, 2022 (percentage change from comparable week in 2019*):
• Occupancy: 50.4% (-15.8%)
• Average daily rate (ADR): $125.06 (-1.2%)
• evenue per available room (RevPAR): $63.05 (-16.8%)
*Due to the pandemic impact, STR is measuring recovery against comparable time periods from 2019. The following graph shows the seasonal pattern for the hotel occupancy rate using the four-week average.

 Energy expenditures as a percentage of PCE - During the early stages of the pandemic, energy expenditures as a percentage of PCE hit an all-time low of 3.3% of PCE. Since then, energy expenditures have increased. Here is an update through the December PCE report. Below is a graph of expenditures on energy goods and services as a percent of total personal consumption expenditures through December 2021. This is one of the measures that Professor Hamilton at Econbrowser looks at to evaluate any drag on GDP from energy prices. Click on graph for larger image. Data source: BEA. The huge spikes in energy prices during the oil crisis of 1973 and 1979 are obvious. As is the increase in energy prices during the 2001 through 2008 period. In general, energy expenditures as a percent of PCE have been trending down for years. In December 2021, energy expenditures as a percentage of PCE had increased and were at 4.3% of PCE. This is above the pre-pandemic level in early 2020, but below the levels in 2018.

Ridiculous Price Spike in Used Vehicles Finally Hits Resistance, Wholesale Prices Flat for First Time in Months, Plenty of Supply -- Wolf Richter -- Used car and truck wholesale prices that had gone berserk last year were essentially flat in January, the first hesitation since August, at ridiculously high levels, as pricing resistance in face of this craziness is finally setting in. Two months ago, I noted the first signs of softening of some of the beneath-the-surface pricing-dynamics. And a month ago, I noted how this softening beneath the surface expanded in December. And in January, the softening broke the surface just a tad with flat prices for the first time in months, halting the mind-boggling spike of the Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index. There had already been indications last summer that these prices-gone-berserk had turned around and were heading south, but then the next leg of the spike set in.These wholesale auction prices, as tracked by Manheim’s seasonally adjusted and mileage-adjusted Used Vehicle Value Index, were still up by 45% from January 2021, and by 67% from January 2020. This doesn’t mean that used vehicle prices will suddenly plunge. Prices are sticky on the way down. But it indicates that price resistance is setting in, amid plenty of supply and slightly lower sales at those ridiculous prices. The underlying softening progressed further in January.The Three-Year-Old Index declined 2.9% in January, according to Manheim, the largest auto auction operator in the US and a unit of Cox Automotive.The average daily sales conversion rate at Manheim auctions declined to below-normal 50% in January. For example, in January 2019, the sales conversion rate averaged 51.5%.“The lower conversion rate indicates that the month saw buyers with slightly more bargaining power for this time of year, and as a result, most vehicles showed price depreciation,” Manheim said.“However, price patterns in the month varied by vehicle age and segment. Older vehicles were more likely to see price stability, while younger vehicles tended to see larger declines,” Manheim said. While month-to-month price declines were cropping up, the year-over-year price spikes remained enormous, and across all major vehicle categories, vans at the top with a price spike of nearly 60%, powered by super-hot demand for cargo vans on the used-vehicle market, driven by the boom in ecommerce delivery fleets.

BLS: CPI increased 0.6% in January; Core CPI increased 0.6% - From the BLS: The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.6 percent in January on a seasonally adjusted basis, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 7.5 percent before seasonal adjustment. Increases in the indexes for food, electricity, and shelter were the largest contributors to the seasonally adjusted all items increase. The food index rose 0.9 percent in January following a 0.5-percent increase in December. The energy index also increased 0.9 percent over the month, with an increase in the electricity index being partially offset by declines in the gasoline index and the natural gas index. The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.6 percent in January, the same increase as in December. This was the seventh time in the last 10 months it has increased at least 0.5 percent. Along with the index for shelter, the indexes for household furnishings and operations, used cars and trucks, medical care, and apparel were among many indexes that increased over the month. The all items index rose 7.5 percent for the 12 months ending January, the largest 12-month increase since the period ending February 1982. The all items less food and energy index rose 6.0 percent, the largest 12-month change since the period ending August 1982. The energy index rose 27.0 percent over the last year, and the food index increased 7.0 percent.Both CPI and core CPI were above expectations. I'll post a graph later today after the Cleveland Fed releases the median and trimmed-mean CPI.

U.S. Inflation Rate Accelerates to a 40-Year High of 7.5% – WSJ - A relentless surge in U.S. inflation reached another four-decade high last month, accelerating to a 7.5% annual rate as strong consumer demand collided with pandemic-related supply disruptions.The Labor Department on Thursday said the consumer-price index—which measures what consumers pay for goods and services—in January reached its highest level since February 1982, when compared with the same month a year ago. That put inflation above December’s 7% annual rate and well above the 1.8% annual rate for inflation in 2019 ahead of the pandemic.The so-called core price index, which excludes the often volatile categories of food and energy, climbed 6% in January from a year earlier. That was a sharper rise than December’s 5.5% increase and the highest rate in nearly 40 years. Prices were up sharply in January for a number of everyday household items, including food, vehicles, shelter and electricity. A sharp uptick in housing rental prices—one of the biggest monthly costs for households—contributed to last month’s increase. High inflation is the dark side of the unusually strong economy that has been powered in part by government stimulus to counter the pandemic’s impact. January’s continued acceleration increased the likelihood that Federal Reserve officials could speed up a series of interest-rate increases this spring to ease surging prices and cool the economy. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note hit 2% for the first time since mid-2019 on the prospect of tighter monetary policy, while stocks slipped.Kathy Bostjancic, chief U.S. financial economist at Oxford Economics, said what started as pandemic-specific inflation has now “broadened out across many, many categories both on the goods side of the economy and on the services side.”“It reflects supply constraints both in the goods market and the labor market but it also is a function of still strong demand, particularly from U.S. consumers,” she added.On a monthly basis, the CPI increased a seasonally adjusted 0.6% last month, holding steady at the same pace as in December.Used-car prices continued to drive overall inflation, rising 40.5% in January from a year ago. However, prices for used cars moderated on a month-to-month basis, a possible sign that a major source of inflationary pressure over the past year could be easing.Food prices surged 7%, the sharpest rise since 1981. Restaurant prices rose by the most since the early 1980s, pushed up by an 8% jump in fast-food prices from a year earlier. Grocery prices increased 7.4%, as meat and egg prices continued to climb at double-digit rates.Energy prices rose 27%, easing from November’s peak of 33.3%, but a jump in electricity costs was particularly sharp when compared with historical trends.Higher prices are putting pressure on consumers, with inflation adding as much as $250 a month to living expenses, and businesses, which are scrambling to keep up with rising materials and labor costs.The January number includes a once-a-year revision that affects seasonally adjusted data for the past five years. The Labor Department also updated the list of goods included in the calculation, known as a spending basket, to reflect consumer habits in 2019 and 2020.Prices for autos, household furniture and appliances, as well as for other long-lasting goods, continue to drive much of the inflationary surge, fueled by pandemic-related supply-and-demand imbalances. Most economists expect the dynamic to fade as businesses adapt and demand normalizes. But it isn’t clear when supply snarls will ease enough to take pressure off prices, particularly because of recent disruptions from the Omicron variant of Covid-19.Fed officials also think the surge in inflation will ease later this year, but the sustained nature of price increases has prompted it to consider raising rates more quickly than previously planned.

Cleveland Fed: Median CPI increased 0.6% and Trimmed-mean CPI increased 0.6% in January - The Cleveland Fed released the median CPI and the trimmed-mean CPI this morning:
According to the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, the median Consumer Price Index rose 0.6% in January. The 16% trimmed-mean Consumer Price Index also increased 0.6% in January. "The median CPI and 16% trimmed-mean CPI are measures of core inflation calculated by the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland based on data released in the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ (BLS) monthly CPI report". Note: The Cleveland Fed released the median CPI details here: "Used Cars" were only up 19% annualized, and this will likely show declines in coming months. Note that Owners' Equivalent Rent and Rent of Primary Residence account for almost 1/3 of median CPI, and these measures were up around 5.5% annualized in January. This graph shows the year-over-year change for these four key measures of inflation. On a year-over-year basis, the median CPI rose 4.2%, the trimmed-mean CPI rose 5.4%, and the CPI less food and energy rose 6.0%. Core PCE is for December and increased 4.85% year-over-year.

WHOOSH Goes the Dollar’s Purchasing Power in January as Inflation Now Infests Services by Wolf Richter (8 graphs) OK, the Fed and American consumers and wage earners have, excuse the technical jargon here, a serious-ass problem on their hands that has just gotten worse. The broadest Consumer Price Index (CPI-U) jumped by 0.6% in January from December, and by 7.5% from a year ago, the worst since February 1982, according to data released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics today The narrower “core” CPI-U, which removes the volatile commodities-dependent food and energy components from the measure to show how inflation has seeped into the broader economy, spiked to 6.0%, the highest since August 1982: But back in 1982, Volcker was cracking down, interest rates were in the double digits, and inflation was heading lower.Now, Powell has the foot still on the gas by still buying assets though at a slower pace, and by still repressing interest rates to near-zero. The last time inflation spiked in this glorious manner was in 1978, but the Fed back then was pushing the federal funds rate toward 10%. Now the Fed is still repressing the federal funds rate to near 0%, which makes this Fed the most reckless Fed ever.And folks, it’s no longer just supply chains, labor shortages, chip shortages, factories in China, used cars, and new cars.It’s services that have begun to spike. The CPI for services spiked by 4.6% year-over-year, with big price increases now infesting every part of the economy: The loss of the purchasing power of the consumer’s dollar – the politically incorrect term for inflation – worsened by 0.8% in January from December, and thereby the purchasing power of wages and salaries dropped by as much. The purchasing power of $100 in January 2000 has dwindled to $60.10, losing another 50 cents over the past 30 days: The CPI for housing is based on two measures of rent that account for 32% of the total CPI. Both measures, after a drop in 2020 through mid-2021, have been rising every month since June 2021, gradually picking up the actual increases in rents. With both measures still below CPI, they’re still holding down CPI, but less than before. And they’re going resolutely in the wrong direction.“Rent of primary residence” (7.4% of overall CPI) rose by 3.8% in January compared to a year ago (red in the chart below). “Owner’s equivalent rent of residences” (24.3% of overall CPI) rose 4.1%. This measure, used to estimate the costs of homeownership as a service, is based on surveys that ask homeowners what their home might rent for (green line). Alas, the actual costs of purchasing a house spiked by 19% year-over-year, according to the Case-Shiller Home Price Index, as seen in The Most Splendid Housing Bubbles in America, which creates this unreal disconnect between the exploding house prices via the Case-Shiller index (purple) and the just now rising stand-in for house prices, the “Owner’s equivalent of rent” (red). Both indices are set to 100 for January 2000: Food costs spiked by 0.9% for the month and 7.0% year-over-year. Food costs weigh 13.4% in the overall CPI. “Food at home” – what you buy at the grocery store – jumped by 1.0% for the month and by 7.4% year-over-year. The entire meat, poultry, fish, and eggs categories jumped by 12.2% year-over-year, and just don’t even try to buy beef, which jumped 16%. “Food away from home” – restaurants, cafeterias, delis, etc. – jumped by 6.4% year-over-year, the most since 1982. Energy costs (7.5% of overall CPI) jumped by 0.9% for the month and by 27.0% year-over-year. Among them: Gasoline dipped 0.8% in January from December, but was still up by 40% year-over-year Utility natural gas to the home dipped 0.5% in January but was up 23.9% year-over-year Electricity service spiked by 4.2% for the month and by 10.7% year-over-year. The CPI for new cars and trucks (weighs 4.1% in the overall CPI) spiked by 12.2% year-over-year, the third-highest in the history of the universe, behind only the record in March and April 1975 as consumers are paying no matter what, including addendum stickers on top of MSRP: So this is inflation in the process of burning out of control, with the Fed – the most reckless Fed ever – still pouring huge amounts of fuel on the fire through its asset purchases that won’t end until early March, and through its interest-rate repression that it will only too slowly, too little, and too late back off from, and through its recklessly gargantuan balance sheet that it will unwind too slowly and too late.

Trade Deficit Increased to $80.7 Billion in December From the Department of Commerce reported: The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis announced today that the goods and services deficit was $80.7 billion in December, up $1.4 billion from $79.3 billion in November, revised.December exports were $228.1 billion, $3.4 billion more than November exports. December imports were $308.9 billion, $4.8 billion more than November imports. Both exports and imports increased in December.Exports are up 20% compared to December 2020; imports are up 20% compared to December 2020. Both imports and exports decreased sharply due to COVID-19, and have now bounced back (imports more than exports),The second graph shows the U.S. trade deficit, with and without petroleum. The blue line is the total deficit, and the black line is the petroleum deficit, and the red line is the trade deficit ex-petroleum products.Note that net, imports and exports of petroleum products are close to zero.The trade deficit with China increased to $36.1 billion in December, from $27.3 billion in December 2020.

U.S. posts record trade deficit in 2021 - The Commerce Department said on Tuesday that the trade deficit increased 27.0% last year to an all-time high of $859.1 billion. The deficit was at $676.7 billion in 2020. "The US trade picture won't return to normal until the pandemic purchases start to slow and life returns to what it was," said Christopher Rupkey, chief economist at FWDBONDS in New York.The trade gap represented 3.7% of gross domestic product, up from 3.2% in 2020. The economy grew 5.7% in 2021, the strongest since 1984, after the government provided nearly $6 trillion in pandemic relief, which fueled consumer spending on goods.The goods deficit shot up 18.3% to a record $1.1 trillion last year. Imports of goods hit an all-time high of $1.8 trillion. They were driven by imports of industrial supplies and materials, which increased to their highest level since 2014.Food imports were the highest on record as were those of capital, consumer and other goods. There were record imports from 70 countries in 2021, led by Mexico, Canada and Germany.Robust import growth overshadowed a sharp rebound in exports. Goods exports surged 23.3% to a record $1.8 trillion. Exports of industrial supplies and materials, foods, consumer goods, other goods and petroleum were the highest on record.The United States logged record exports to 57 countries last year, led by led by Mexico, which increased to $276.5 billion. Shipments to China rose to $151.1 billion, while exports to South Korea increased to $65.8 billion. The final boost to the trade deficit came from a 1.8% increase to $80.7 billion in December. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast a $83.0 billion deficit.

US Trade Deficit Exploded in 2021: The Price of 30 Years of Rampant Globalization By Wolf Richter -The US trade deficit in goods and services in 2021 exploded by 27% from the then-record-worst deficit in 2020, to $859 billion, according to data by theCommerce Department. This is the result of 30 years of rampant and government-policy-encouraged globalization by Corporate America, from Walmart, Amazon, and the vast auto industry to the pharmaceutical industry.The trade deficit is a negative for GDP, and a negative for the overall economy in America, and it contributes substantially to the current supply-chain chaos. But US trade deficits are a huge positive for China, Germany, Vietnam, Mexico, and many other countries that we’ll get to in a moment. The driver behind the trade deficit is Corporate America. And inflation, if the US trade with the rest of the world were balanced, would roughly cancel out in trade with higher prices both on exports and imports. But this trade is stunningly unbalanced. Services trade surplus fizzles. Trade deficit in goods blows out. The US services trade surplus in 2021 dropped by 5.6% to a measly $231 billion, the lowest services surplus since 2012, and the third year in a row of declines. Imports of services soared by 16% to $535 billion. Exports of services – which include spending by foreign tourists and students in the US – rose by 8.6% to $767 billion. The trade deficit in goods worsened by 18% in 2021, to a blistering $1.09 trillion, by far the biggest and worst ever. Exports of goods (green) rose by 23%, to a record by a slim margin of $1.76 trillion, driven by massively higher prices for prime US exports products, including petroleum, petroleum products, natural gas, and the products of the petrochemical industry. Imports of goods worsened by 21% to a stunning record worst of $2.85 trillion, driven by higher prices and a flood of imports. But the US still exports a lot of stuff — record amounts of stuff. Exports of Capital Goods, including motor vehicles and automotive products, rose by 12.7% in 2021, to $663 billion, accounting for 38% of total US exports. Here are the largest categories: Exports of Industrial supplies and materials jumped by 36% to $636 billion, accounting for 36% of total exports of goods. The largest categories in this group are crude oil, petroleum products, natural gas, petrochemical products, and coal, whose combined exports soared by 52%, to a record $294 billion in 2021, largely driven by huge price increases. These exports accounted for 17% of total goods exports:This group of industrial supplies and materials also includes precious metals. The US exported $55.8 billion of gold and other precious metals in 2021, up 36% from a year ago:

 Delta proposes national 'no-fly' list for combative passengers - Delta Air Lines is urging the Biden administration to create a national “no-fly” list for combative passengers as airlines grapple with unruly guests who defy COVID-19 protocols and harass flight crews.Delta CEO Ed Bastian wrote a letter to Attorney General Merrick Garlandin which he called on the Justice Department to set up a national “no-fly list” for unruly passengers, noting that close to 2,000 of their previous passengers had already been placed on the airline’s own list, according to a letter obtained by The Hill and first reported by Reuters.Bastian also noted that they were seeking civil penalties for over 900 of those on their no-fly list, submitting their names to the Transportation Security Administration (TSA).The Delta CEO said that creating a national no-fly list for unruly passengers would "help prevent future incidents and serve as a strong symbol of the consequences of not complying with crew member instructions on commercial aircraft,” according to Reuters, noting that a similar one exists associated with their terrorism watch list.The move comes as airlines have grappled with a surge of unruly passengers, including those fighting COVID-19 protocols or harassing flight crews or other passengers. Last month three women were charged with assaulting a Delta Air Lines security officer at John F. Kennedy International Airport in September. The three were told they would not be able to board their flight due to “apparent intoxication” before they later attacked the officer on a JFK jetway.Garland in late November ordered the Justice Department to prioritize the prosecution of unruly passengers following a push from Democratic lawmakers earlier that month.

 The Real Reason America Doesn’t Have Enough Truck Drivers A 1,000-mile journey through the middle of America reveals the fundamental reason for truck driver shortages: It is a job full of stress, physical deprivation and loneliness.Stephen Graves guides his tractor-trailer across the cracked pavement of a truck stop parking lot in southern Oklahoma. Exhausted from another 400 miles behind the wheel, he needs the restroom. But mostly he needs an answer to the same question that dogs him nearly every day as darkness falls: Where can he park his rig for the night? Mr. Graves is nearing the 11-hour limit on driving before he is legally required to rest for 10 hours. He could push on for another hour, creep closer to the Texas border and shorten the distance to his drop-off the next morning — a warehouse alongside the Dallas-Fort Worth airport. The calculus is tricky. The next truck stop down the interstate is notoriously short on parking. He might get there and have to settle for the shoulder of a highway on-ramp. This stop outside the minuscule town of Springer is unappealing — its bathrooms rank and its dining options minimal. But it has parking in abundance. So he pulls in for the night and climbs into the bunk at the back of his cab for a few hours of fitful sleep. Mr. Graves, 65, has been driving a truck for more than two decades. He is prone to rhapsodizing about the open road. But he does not struggle to explain why his industry is perpetually bemoaning a shortage of drivers. “The lifestyle probably is the first thing that smacks people in the face,” he says. “You know what it does to you. You’re thinking about it all the time. We’re tired. Our bodies are starting to go. Our bladders have been put to the test. And no exercise. We end up with all types of heart and other health ailments. You can’t truly fathom what it’s done to you.” In a world contending with the unrelenting impact of the Great Supply Chain Disruption and its attendant worry of the moment,rising consumer prices,, a shortage of truck drivers is frequently cited as an explanation for shortages of many other things — from construction supplies to electronics to clothing. Last year, trucking companies in the United States suffered a record deficit of 80,000 drivers, according to the American Trucking Associations, a trade association. Given that trucks move 72 percent of American freight, a lack of drivers spells substantial disruption. “There’s no silver bullet for fixing this,” says Robert Costello, the trade association’s chief economist. “We need to get more people into the industry.” Some experts counter that the very notion of too few drivers is bogus — a reach by the industry for federal subsidies to train recruits as compensation for its poor rates of retention. The average trucking company has a turnover rate of roughly 95 percent, meaning that it must replace nearly all of its work force in the course of a year. More recruits boost the supply of drivers, which keeps a cap on wages. As the trucking association itself noted, more than 10 million Americans held commercial driver’s licenses in 2019. That was nearly triple the 3.7 million trucks that required a driver holding that certification.

Lawler: Deaths by Age --From housing economist Tom Lawler: Provisional data from the CDC indicate that there have been 3,427,882 US deaths reported for 2021 as of 2/9/2022, up from 3,383,729 deaths in 2020. Because of reporting delays in some parts of the country the 2021 final death numbers will be a little bit higher that the numbers in the 2/9 report. CDC also reports provisional death counts by age groups, and below is a table showing 2021 deaths reported so far by age compared to final death counts by age for 2020 and 2019. While the absolute increase in the number of deaths in 2021 compared to 2019 was largest in the relatively elderly, the % increases in deaths were largest in the 25-54 year old age groups.

Missing Workers by Age Group –. Back in November, Goldman Sachs economists put out a research note on the labor force participation rate: Why Isn’t Labor Force Participation Recovering? Here are few excerpts from the note: While the unemployment rate continues to fall quickly, labor force participation has made no progress since August 2020. ... Most of the 5.0mn persons who have exited the labor force since the start of the pandemic are over age 55 (3.4mn), largely reflecting early (1.5mn) and natural (1mn) retirements that likely won’t reverse. The outlook for prime-age persons who have exited the labor force (1.7mn) is more positive, since very few are discouraged and most still view their exits as temporary.First, there are two important monthly surveys from the BLS. The participation rate (and unemployment rate) comes from the Current Population Survey (CPS: commonly called the household survey), a monthly survey of about 60,000 households. The jobs number comes from Current Employment Statistics (CES: payroll survey), a sample of approximately 634,000 business establishments nationwide.These are very different surveys: the CPS gives the total number of employed (and unemployed including the alternative measures), and the CES gives the total number of positions (excluding some categories like the self-employed, and a person working two jobs counts as two positions).Currently the payroll survey shows there are 2.9 million fewer jobs than in February 2020 (pre-pandemic). The household survey shows there are 1.7 million fewer people employed than in February 2020. Note: The 5 million number for the labor force, probably assumes some normal labor force growth; however,overall population growth has been dismal over the last 2 years (little immigration and large number of deaths). I'm not confident in Goldman's 5-million-person estimate.Here is a graph of the number of missing people by age group (from the CPS household survey).This data is comparing January 2022 to January 2020, using Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA) data (I compared to January 2020 to minimize the seasonal impact when using NSA data).Positive numbers are missing workers. Almost all of the missing employed workers - by this method - are in the 25 to 29 and 45 to 49 age groups, and most are women. Note: this is over a 2-year period, and there have been some demographic shifts between cohorts.This data would suggest most of the missing workers are prime age (or some took early retirement).

Trends in Educational Attainment in the U.S. Labor Force - The first graph shows the unemployment rate by four levels of education (all groups are 25 years and older) through March 2021. Note: This is an update to a post from a few years ago. Unfortunately, this data only goes back to 1992 and includes only three recessions (the stock / tech bust in 2001, and the housing bust/financial crisis, and the 2020 pandemic). Clearly education matters with regards to the unemployment rate, with the lowest rate for college graduates at 2.3% in January, and highest for those without a high school degree at 6.3% in January. All four groups were generally trending down prior to the pandemic. And all are nearly back to pre-pandemic levels now. Note: This says nothing about the quality of jobs - as an example, a college graduate working at minimum wage would be considered "employed". This brings up an interesting question: What is the composition of the labor force by educational attainment, and how has that been changing over time? Here is some data on the U.S. labor force by educational attainment since 1992. Currently, almost 62 million people in the U.S. labor force have a bachelor's degree or higher. This is over 43% of the labor force, up from 26.2% in 1992. This is the only category trending up. "Some college" has been steady (and trending down lately), and both "high school" and "less than high school" have been trending down. Based on current trends, probably half the labor force will have at least a bachelor's degree by the end of this decade (2020s). Since workers with bachelor's degrees typically have a lower unemployment rate, rising educational attainment is probably a factor in pushing down the overall unemployment rate over time. Also, I'd guess more education would mean less labor turnover, and that education is a factor in lower weekly claims (prior to the pandemic). A more educated labor force is a positive for the future.

 BNSF railroad unions beg Biden administration to intervene against punitive new attendance policy - On January 31, the presidents of two of the main unions at BNSF sent a letter to Secretary of Labor Marty Walsh and Secretary of Transportation Pete Buttigieg over the new punitive “Hi-Viz” attendance policy at the railroad. The new points-based attendance policy, which took effect February 1, significantly worsens the already overloaded and uncertain work schedulesthat leave train conductors and engineers unable to spend time with their families or even schedule doctor’s appointments. In addition, the policy will lay the groundwork for the carrier to discipline and even terminate experienced, higher seniority workers over only a few days of missed work, allowing the company to shift towards a younger, even more exploited workforce. The letter to the Biden administration officials came less than a week after a federal judge issued an injunction against workers taking strike action against the new policy. The ruling was based on the reactionary Railway Labor Act of 1926 (RLA), which has been used to all but illegalize strikes in the railroad (and later the airline) industry for nearly a century. Judge Mark Pittman declared that the new policy, which threatens to reduce workers to the status of industrial slaves, would likely be determined a “minor issue” in his final ruling which, under the RLA, workers are prohibiting from striking against. The two union officials plead with the Biden administration to intervene on the grounds that the new policy endangers both the safety of workers and the public at large. “Forcing these employees to choose between their job or their safety in the workplace is in complete contradiction to BNSF’s obligation to protect public safety, and to provide a safe workplace environment.” It continues, “Like all railroad employees, these essential employees[emphasis in original] have placed their health, and that of their families, on the line since the COVID-19 pandemic began. They have moved the Nation’s freight, working night and day, and are now being put in a position where their livelihoods could be at risk for simply following CDC guidelines for time away from work for exposure or care due to a positive COVID-19 test.”They continue, “This policy and its draconian rules and standards fly in the face of railroad safety laws and regulations, and it disregards government recommendations intended to keep COVID-19 out of the workplace. As a result, available work force levels will be impeded and already historic levels of mid-career resignations will be increased.”

The unequal toll of COVID-19 on workers - EPI Blog -- The surge of the Omicron variant in the United States sickened millions, hospitalized young people at record rates, killed Americans at a far higher rate relative to other high-income countries, and led to widespread work absences and societal disruptions.Household Pulse Survey (HPS) data reveal stark inequities in COVID-19-related outcomes by income. Among working-aged Americans, those with 2019 household incomes less than $25,000 were 3.5 times as likely to report missing an entire week of work mainly due to their own or loved ones’ COVID-19 symptoms, relative to those earning $100,000 or more (Figure). The United States does not collect national COVID-19 surveillance data by income or occupation, so the HPS data are among the best sources for evaluating disparities, although the survey response rate is low. When low-income workers miss work due to COVID-19, they not only face the risk of severe illness—their families also report not being able to afford enough food to eat. After the expiration of the federal sick leave program, few low-income workers have access to paid sick leave to support them in self-isolating while infectious, reducing viral spread in the community, and leading a healthy recovery. Only 35% of low-wage workers have paid sick leave while 95% of high-wage workers do. Since the early months of the pandemic, low-income, front-line workers have faced elevated risk of exposureto and death from the airborne virus. Two years into the pandemic, the lowest-income workers have had the least access to vaccines and boosters (Figure 1). Roughly 4 in 10 working-age Americans have either never been fully vaccinated (Figure 2) or have not gotten a recommended booster (Figure 3). The U.S. federal government spoke of the importance of vaccines and boosters but did not take adequate steps to create access for low-income workers. Workers who were boosted were least likely to miss work due to COVID-19 symptoms, while two doses were less protective (Figures 4 and 5). The United States has large vaccine inequities, no federal workplace safety standard in place to protect workers, and fewer than 10 of 50 U.S. states had mask mandates during the Omicron surge. In contrast, other high-income countries responded quickly to the Omicron variant with widespread vaccine delivery. Of the 27 European countries, 23 implemented universal mask policies. Other countries have consistently provided free rapid tests and high-quality masks to contain the virus. As the U.S. federal government recently implemented a one-time free test and mask program at the end of the Omicron surge, there remains a need for clear plans to provide these materials on an ongoing basis, including at the start of future surges. Additional surges are likely due to new variants, seasonality, and waning immunity. The United States can act now to reduce the toll of COVID-19 on low-income workers and their families, on employers, and on society, much as other high-income countries have done. Each of the following policies and approaches are well-aligned with the pandemic plan that President Biden released when he entered office.

Quelle Surprise! Covid Burden Falling Hardest on Low Income Workers…But Don’t Expect Any Help -- Yves Smith -- An important Economic Policy Institute article confirms what many had suspected: that Covid was hurting lower income workers the most. We’ll shortly go through its analysis, which is important and informative. We will also review its recommendations, which are more of a mixed bag. Mind you, we don’t mean to come down on EPI, which is not a public health or bioscience site. But EPI’s stance sadly reflects that a lot of analysts haven’t gotten the memo about how poor our Covid choices are, given that the officialdom has rejected containment and even Japan-level approaches of aggressive masking and attention to indoor air quality. Mind you, this report shows yet more ways that Covid is widening inequality. We already had a big dose in how the economic support programs were carried out. In the US, the PPP loans, for businesses, nominally to preserve payrolls, were the biggest program. Supplemental unemployment was the biggest form of income support…which bypassed the elderly, many casual workers, those who’d dropped out of the workforce, and was often very very late to arrive (California and Alabama were both laggards). Even the World Economic Forum took note in 2020,because too much inequality is bad for commerce: There are at least four ways the COVID-19 pandemic is increasing inequality:

• First, higher-paid workers are working from home while lower-paid blue-collar workers typically do not have this option.
• Second, a higher share of low-paid workers are in essential services such as nursing, policing, teaching, cleaning, refuse removal, and store attendants where they are more likely to come into contact with people who are infected.
• Third, lower paid workers are more represented in the sectors that have suspended activities such as hotels, restaurants and tourism services.
• Fourth, the pandemic is increasing poverty and inequality between richer countries that can afford to bail out their firms and provide social safety nets, and poorer countries that do not have the capacity to do so…..

The pandemic is a boon for the ultra-rich. The staggering rise in the stock-market is testament to this. In the US, over 44 million people lost their jobs and unemployment surged towards 15% between April and June 2020. Yet the fortunes of the top five billionaires rose by $102 billion, increasing their wealth by 26%. In fact, the combined wealth of US billionaires increased by over $637 billion to a total of $3.6 trillion, which is considerably more than the entire wealth of the 54 countries on the African continent.And echoing the old economists’ joke: “It’s true in practice, but it is true in theory?” Based on the performance of past pandemics, economists anticipated that this one would also increase inequality. Apparently it takes a Black Death level labor wipeout to fundamentally restructure labor relations

Pennsylvania Governor Wolf raises minimum wage for state employees, calls for a $15 statewide minimum - On Wednesday, two-term Democratic Governor Tom Wolf of Pennsylvania announced an executive order raising the minimum wage for state employees to $15 per hour, two years earlier than expected. The wage increase would apply only to a small share of the state’s workforce. According to data from the Pennsylvania Office of Administration’s statistics for 2021, it may affect 5,616 hourly workers out of a total state workforce of 77,417 workers, about 14 percent. Term-limited and leaving office after the election this fall, Wolf has also called on the Republican-dominated state legislature to raise the state’s minimum wage to $15. There is little prospect the proposal will go into effect. An estimated 1.5 million workers in the state’s private sector currently make below $15. With a current minimum wage of $7.25 per hour, Pennsylvania has a lower minimum wage than its neighboring states. It has not moved in 15 years, including the last seven in which Wolf has been governor. The minimum wage in Maryland is $12.20; in Delaware, $10.50; New York, $13.20; New Jersey, $13; and Ohio, $9.30. Even West Virginia, among the poorest states in the United Stat A Franklin & Marshall College poll says 67 percent of eligible voters throughout the country support raising the minimum wage. As elsewhere, in Pennsylvania there is immense anger at stagnating incomes, skyrocketing inflation, and the criminal response of the entire political establishment to the COVID-19 pandemic. Even as political theater, Wolf’s claim that $15 is a livable wage does not hold water. At this wage, 40 hours per week would equal $31,300 in yearly pay, before taxes are taken out. Yet, in order to support a family of four at a “living wage” in Pennsylvania, according to data from MIT (Massachusetts Institute of Technology), a worker would have to make $65,502, before taxes. For a single mother with one child, $27.57 per hour is needed for a living wage.

MTA Announces Fare Capping Pilot That Turns Single Rides Into Unlimited Weekly Passes – In an effort to encourage New Yorkers to get back on subways, buses, and trains -- particularly following the sharp decline in ridership due to the pandemic -- the Metropolitan Transportation Authority announced a pilot fare program that is "more affordable, more flexible and more fair." The temporary promotional changes to fare structures will begin Feb. 28 for New York City Transit and Feb. 25 for commuter rail tickets. The pilot will last for at least four months. “Bringing riders back to mass transit depends on three variables – reliability, safety and price. We’ve made it a priority to get creative on fares,” MTA Chair and CEO Janno Lieber said in a statement. “Transit affordability is also an equity issue, and we are committed to providing a wide range of new discounts, while ensuring the MTA maintains a solid bottom line.”The fare capping pilot for New York City Transit will feature automatically free unlimited rides achieved after 12 OMNY taps, Monday through Sunday, without having to pre-pay for the week, according to the MTA. Customers who tap and go with OMNY will be charged the standard $2.75 pay-per-ride fare for their first 12 trips starting every Monday. Any trips after that through the following Sunday would be free. Those with a device or contactless card can start tapping their way to free rides as long as they use the same device or card each time.

Blue states move to drop mask mandates --Illinois Gov. J.B. Pritzker (D) said Wednesday that he hopes to lift the mask mandate for indoor settings, with some exceptions, by the end of the month. The plan, which Prizker is set to unveil later Wednesday, will reportedly not include an end to the indoor mask mandate in schools. Rhode Island Gov. Dan McKee (D) also announced Wednesday that the statewide mask mandate and vaccine proof policy for businesses and venues would end on Feb. 11. He plans to lift the statewide school indoor mask requirement on March 4."Thank you, Rhode Island for coming together during the winter surge by getting vaccinated, getting boosted, and wearing your mask indoors," McKee said. Massachusetts' department of education, meanwhile, said Wednesday it will lift its school mask mandate on Feb. 28. "With Massachusetts a national leader in vaccinating kids, combined with our robust testing programs, it is time to lift the mask mandate in schools and give students and staff a sense of normalcy after dealing with enormous challenges over the past two years," Governor Charlie Baker (R) said in a statement.New Jersey Gov. Phil Murphy (D) announced earlier this week that his state is unwinding school mask mandates that have been in place for the entire pandemic."We are not going to manage COVID to zero," tweeted Gov. Phil Murphy. "We have to learn how to live with COVID as we move from a pandemic to an endemic phase of this virus." California health officials said Monday that the state will lift its indoor mask mandate after Feb. 15."Since California's peak during the Omicron surge, the state has experienced a 65% decrease in case rates," the California Department of Public Health said in a statement.Delaware Gov. John Carney (D) also announced Monday that the state will lift its mask mandate for indoor settings on Feb. 11, while masking requirements for K-12 schools and childcare facilities will end on March 31."We’re in a much better place than we were several weeks ago in the middle of the Omicron surge of COVID-19 cases and hospitalizations," Carney said.Connecticut Gov. Ned Lamont (D) announced during a news briefing Monday afternoon that the state's mask mandate for schools and childcare centers will end Feb. 28."The biggest difference I can tell you is the fact that we now have the tools to keep ourselves safe," Lamont said. Both governors noted that school districts and local communities will be able to consider local mask mandates.

Ohio Supreme Court again strikes down state's legislative maps as unconstitutional -Ohio Supreme Court again strikes down state's legislative maps as unconstitutional The Ohio Supreme Court struck down a new legislative map as unconstitutional in a new ruling Monday night. The court rejected the maps that the redistricting commission approved on Jan. 22, according to the ruling. It has previously rejected another version of the maps submitted on Jan. 12. “It is clear that the map drawers and the commission knew that their approach — starting with the invalidated map and switching competitive Republican-leaning districts to competitive Democratic-leaning districts — would have the dual effect of eliminating weak Republican districts and creating weak Democratic districts,” the ruling said. The ruling referenced new constitutional language for the state that requires districts to favor parties in proportion to the make up of the statewide vote, which is 54 percent Republican and 46 percent Democratic. But the court said that the latest plan that was submitted favored Republicans winning 58 percent of the seats. In their dissenting opinion, two justices, including Pat DeWine, who is Ohio Gov. Mike DeWine (R)’s son, and Sharon Kennedy, sharply criticized the decision. "It is apparent that in disregard of constitutional standards, four members of this court have now commandeered the redistricting process and that they will continue to reject any General Assembly-district plan until they get the plan they want," they wrote. "At this point, one must wonder which seven-member body is the true redistricting commission—the constitutionally named officers or this court?"

 NC political maps unconstitutionally gerrymandered, Supreme Court rules -North Carolina’s new political district maps are unconstitutional, the N.C. Supreme Court ruled Friday.The maps, drawn by Republican lawmakers late last year, would have given GOP candidates a sizable advantage in elections throughout the next decade. Republican leaders argued in favor of the maps in court, saying redistricting is an inherently political process and that courts shouldn’t get involved by banning partisan gerrymandering.The Supreme Court, which has a Democratic majority, disagreed.The ruling divided the court along party lines. All three Republican justices dissented and said they would have allowed the maps to stand. But all four Democratic justices joined in the majority opinion, which struck down the maps for both the N.C. General Assembly and North Carolina’s 14 seats in the U.S. House of Representatives.The justices ruled that the maps were skewed so far to the right that they violated the state constitution — specifically that they “are unconstitutional beyond a reasonable doubt under the free elections clause, the equal protection clause, the free speech clause and the freedom of assembly clause of North Carolina’s constitution.” Their ruling orders new political districts to be redrawn. That’s expected to happen quickly, before this year’s elections.

New York City public schools trade mystery meat for 'Vegan Fridays' as part of plant-based Mayor Eric Adams' push for healthier food in schools -- New York City's public school system on Friday rolled out its 'Vegan Fridays' program, offering plant-based options in school cafeterias Children will be offered chickpea wraps, veggie tacos, rice bowls and salads Students can still request a non-vegan option, and staples like milk, peanut butter and jelly sandwiches, hummus and pretzels will always be available Switch to vegan menu was pushed by new Mayor Eric Adams, who adheres to plant-based lifestyle and wrote a book about it New York City public schools, which have 938,000 students, have been offering Meatless Mondays since 2019 and Meatless Fridays since April

Watch: Virginia Mother Slams School Officials Over "Asinine Political Theater" Mask Mandate - A Virginia mother’s impassioned speech before her children’s school board has gone viral after she pointed out that their mask policy is pure political theater and has “turned kids’ lives upside down at school for what is essentially a non-risk.” Merianne Jenson tore apart officials on the Prince William County School Board, noting that other schools in the country have stayed open throughout the pandemic without mask mandates and operated perfectly normally. “Unfortunately, politics leads us to believe there is only one solution. Masks,” Jensen said, adding that when other schools refused to implement mandates “There were not child coffins lined up as some educators in this county suggested would be the case. In fact, things have been going pretty much as normal.” “Kids are getting sick despite wearing masks,” Jenson continued, urging “We are forcing healthy children home for ‘exposure’ despite them wearing masks. And we are segregating children by vaccination status and religious exemption status despite the wearing of masks.” “So I ask you, if masks work, why don’t they?” she said to rapturous applause from other parents. Watch:

Meet nation’s new political power, a coalition of angry moms - Maud Maron hates the whole you-gotta-show-your-vaccine-passport-to-get-into-a-restaurant thing, and she thinks masking outdoors is atrocious, but this is bright blue New York City, so fine. It’s just, “when Kathy Hochul” — the governor — “gets on the screen, talking about how she wants to protect us and keep the masks in schools, she doesn’t have a f—ing mask on her face, and I’m so sick of politicians who take the mask off their face to tell me to put the mask on my children — like how dare you?” Anyway, that’s why she’s running for Congress.We’re having tea around her kitchen island in her apartment in Soho. It’s big. There’s a ping-pong table, a foosball table, a swing bolted into a wooden beam. A bright red, toddler-sized race car. A tattered copy of “Romeo and Juliet.” Speech-therapy exercises are tacked to the wall. Her husband, who’s Argentinian, runs a private-equity shop. “When you shut down my kids’ schools and impose devastating mental-health effects on them — I don’t forgive anyone who did that,” Maron says. After a beat or two, she adds: “This is the year that parents say, ‘You’re either with us or against us.'” Maron is running in New York’s 12th Congressional District against Carolyn Maloney, a Democrat who has served for nearly 30 years representing both the 12th and 14th districts. Maloney, 75, turned heads at last year’s Met Gala dressed in a suffragette-themed purple, white, and green gown while mask-clad attendants stood by drearily in the wings. She’s warded off challengers from the left wing of the party for the past few terms; 28-year old democratic socialist Rana Abdelhamid is her latest progressive challenger. But the Democrats’ newly unveiled redistricting plan out of Albany cuts out leftier enclaves in Brooklyn and Queens from her district.

Top Virginia court rejects parents' challenge to Youngkin school mask order --The Supreme Court of Virginia has voted to reject a parent challenge to Gov. Glenn Youngkin’s (R) school mask order calling for parents to be able to choose whether their child wears a mask at school. In a three-page letter on Monday, the judges said that their riling did not offer an "opinion on the legality" of the executive order issues by Youngkin but that it was difficult to provide the relief requested by the plaintiffs. “By this dismissal, we offer no opinion on the legality of EO 2 or any other issue pertaining to petitioners’ claims,” the court wrote in a footnote. A group of parents from the Chesapeake area filed a lawsuit against the court to block the order, citing the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention guidance in relation to mask wearing in schools,according to CBS affiliate WDBJ. Youngkin issued the mandate on his first day in office, giving state parents the option to choose to have their children wear masks while attending school. In a statement, Youngkin celebrated the dismissal of the case against him. “We are pleased by the dismissal. We will continue to protect the rights of parents to make decisions regarding their child’s health, education, upbringing, and care,” Youngkin wrote on Twitter.

Delaware lifting school mask mandate -Delaware Gov. John Carney (D) has announced the phased lifting of mask mandates for schools and indoor settings over the next two months. In a tweet on Monday, Carney said the mask requirement for K-12 public and private schools and child care facilities will end on March 31. Carney also said the state's mask mandate for indoor public places will be lifted on Feb. 11. “I want to be clear about this point: COVID is still circulating in our communities. The virus still poses a risk of serious illness, particularly among those who are not up to date on their vaccinations,” Carney said in a tweet. "But we have the tools to keep ourselves and each other safe. Get vaccinated. Get your booster. That’s especially important for children, where we continue to see low rates of vaccination,” Carney continued. “For all the parents out there – the best way to keep your child in school learning, and to prevent them from getting sick, is to get them vaccinated. It’s that simple." Carney’s announcement comes as New Jersey Gov. Phil Murphy plans to end the state's school mask mandate in mid-March, with an official announcement expected Monday. Public health experts have are also starting to advocate for lifting mask mandates, warning that pandemic rules cannot last forever. "We cannot remain in a perpetual state of emergency,” Leana Wen, a public health professor at George Washington University, told The Hill last week. “People burn out.”

Right-wing majority on Colorado school board fires superintendent to attack COVID mitigations - At a special meeting of the Douglas County School District board of directors at its Castle Rock, Colorado headquarters February 4, the four-member conservative majority voted to fire school superintendent Corey Wise. Wise, who had worked in the district for 25 years, had been appointed superintendent last spring. The ousting of Wise was the culmination of a week of turmoil in the district, as the board’s new right-wing majority, elected last November, moved to purge the superintendent whom they viewed as supportive of mask mandates and other COVID mitigation policies. In a public Zoom meeting on January 31, the three members of the seven-member board’s minority, Elizabeth Hanson, Susan Meek and David Ray, accused members of the conservative majority, including board president Mike Peterson and vice-president Christy Williams, of confronting Wise with the choice of resigning or being ousted by a board vote. According to Ray, the issuing of the ultimatum to Wise was in violation of Colorado’s open meetings law, which requires that whenever two or more board members discuss a district-related matter, it needs to first have 24 hours’ notice and the meeting must be open to the public to observe. According to a cpr.org report, “The move to get rid of the superintendent took community members and the three minority board members by surprise. There was no board discussion, either public or in a private executive session, no notice of the board majority’s intentions, and no prior discussion with Wise about any problems with his job performance, according to Hanson, Meek and Ray.” Furthermore, the minority board members said that Will Trachman, an attorney brought on board by the majority, did not communicate with the board minority or with district legal counsel regarding the meeting with Wise. Hanson, who is an attorney, said that she would file an ethics complaint against Trachman for contractual and ethical violations.

Ohio schools: COVID-19 cases fall for third week as omicron wave recedes - (WCMH) – With cases of the highly contagious omicron variant of COVID-19 falling from their January peak, new infections reported by schools have fallen for the third consecutive week. K-12 schools reported 7,252 cases to the Ohio Department of Health on Thursday for the week ending Sunday, Feb. 6. That’s a 61% drop from last week’s 18,744 new cases and a 74% cut from the record 27,774 three weeks ago. The school year total stands at 236,474 cases among students and staff. Infections were caught in and out of school. Schools report cases among students and staff to ODH on Tuesdays, reflecting the week ending on the previous Sunday. ODH releases numbers on Thursdays at 2 p.m. Full-time or part-time students and staff who have tested positive for or been diagnosed with COVID-19. Infections were caught in and out of school. Staff members include teachers, administrators, coaches and support staff. Excludes students/staff who are completely remote, but includes them if they were “on-site” while infectious. 1,609 (58%) of the 2,769 schools, districts, private schools, vocational schools, preschools and other non-college institutions that ODH tracks have reported a case this school year. That's six more schools than last week. The median number of cases among schools with at least one infection is 42 cases, while the median number for school districts is 195 cases. 195,009 (82%) of Ohio’s school cases are students and 41,465 (18%) are staff members, which include teachers, administrators, coaches and support staff. Last school year, students were roughly 2 in 3 cases, and staff were 1 in 3. Cincinnati Public Schools, a district of more than 34,000 students, leads the state with 5,439 cases, ahead of Dublin City Schools with 3,713. Dublin is among five central Ohio districts in the top 10. The share of public school districts with mask mandates has been falling steadily as omicron cases fall. Around 51% of students attend a school that require masks for all or some students, per data last week from the Ohio Department of Education. Just under 50% learn where masks are optional. While answering a reporter’s question in a Thursday press conference, ODH Director Dr. Bruce Vanderhoff reaffirmed the agency’s position that masking in schools is “a local decision,” not the state’s call.

More than 200,000 American children have lost a parent or caregiver to COVID-19 - More than 200,000 American children have now lost a parent or primary caregiver to COVID-19, according to Dr. Charles Nelson, a professor of pediatrics and psychiatry at Harvard University. Nelson coauthored a study, published in Pediatrics in October 2021, on the impact of COVID-19 deaths of parents and caregivers. When the study was initially published, 140,000 caregiver deaths had been reported through June 30, 2021, which has now increased roughly 50 percent during the surges of the Delta and Omicron variants across the US. The staggering figure of 200,000 children deprived of their caregivers represents incalculable social and personal loss, which will impact all those affected for their entire lives. According to a 2018 study published in The American Journal of Psychiatry, the loss of a parent predisposes children to “depression, post-traumatic stress disorder, and functional impairment.” “The loss of a parent,” the study’s authors write, “is one of the most stressful events that a child can experience.” These losses are devastating and destabilizing. Children are sometimes forced to move into homes with relatives they do not know well, while others face foster care or group homes. “Under no circumstances should these children be put in institutions,” Nelson told Newsweek last week. “There is a risk, particularly for older kids, that they could be put in group homes or residential care, rather than placed with family.” Tami Logsdon, the program director at the Children’s Bereavement Center of South Texas, told Newsweek, “We know circumstances of people as young as 20 who are attempting to care for three younger siblings.” The disruption of bereavement can cause children to fall behind in school, Lodgson says, and many of them will struggle to catch up. Loss can also lead to behavioral changes, such as withdrawal or acting out. Experts warn that prolonged grief puts children at greater risk for substance abuse and suicide, in addition to relationship problems in adulthood.

Nebraska teacher and parent describe brutal conditions in schools during Omicron surge - Nebraska’s most populous city, Omaha, hit the grim milestone of 1,000 official deaths from COVID-19 this month, while the state as a whole has now lost 3,755 people to COVID-19. As in many other areas of the country, health care systems and their staff are strained to the maximum, with occupancy levels reaching 98 percent in many hospitals. In some areas of Nebraska, COVID-19 patients have taken up 30 to 40 percent of hospital capacity during the Omicron surge, forcing one hospital to open a trailer on its grounds for respiratory therapy and two trailers for COVID-19 treatment infusions. The situation in rural areas is exacerbated by incredibly low vaccination rates, with some of Nebraska’s counties hovering near 30 percent.In the midst of this nightmare scenario, Nebraska’s political establishment is pursuing the homicidal “herd immunity” strategy pioneered by Trump and now adopted by the Biden administration. Despite the surge of the Omicron variant, schools continue to be in-person across Nebraska. In Omaha, the local children's hospital has seen pediatric hospitalizations rise to 18, with more children experiencing multisystem inflammatory syndrome in children (MIS-C), a potentially lethal condition linked to COVID-19. The local teachers union has taken no actions, and when teachers and parents have voiced their concerns to the board of Omaha Public Schools, they have gone unheard. Amanda, a 2nd-grade teacher in Nebraska, expressed her anger with the current situation, stating, “I think the most frustrating part is the fact that it’s almost that the union leadership is so afraid of parent backlash that they don’t listen to our voices, the experts in our field. District leadership is never in our building. They don’t come in. They don’t see what we go through. They don’t ask. That’s what makes it so frustrating right now, just not having our voices heard. “Right now, it’s all of the duties we have on top of COVID. You would think they would put a pause on professional development. The duties are just increasing and increasing. What is asked from us is increasing. We’re in the middle of a surge. This is the most cases we’ve ever had and they’re bringing us all together to do professional development. Something that we could have logged in at home and covered. Trainings that we have to do right now when we’re trying to play catch up with kids that are a couple grade levels behind. I just feel like what they’re asking from us is overwhelming. “There’s not enough time in the day. We have students that are literally two grade levels behind. I have three students who were home-schooled. They came in as non-readers. They weren’t even learning. And so trying to catch them up when you have all of these expectations, MAP [standardized] testing, all of these things that we have to hit. It’s hard. It’s daunting.” Amanda also noted the safety of her family being of huge concern. She said, “I have a toddler at home I have to protect. She’s not vaccinated yet. She can’t be vaccinated. It’s scary. I just feel like all they’re all saying ‘we have to get back to normal.’

Art Spiegelman on Maus and free speech: ‘Who’s the snowflake now?’ -- In 1985, at the height of popularity for the faddish baby dolls, the Cabbage Patch Kids, the cartoonist Art Spiegelman debuted a subversive line of trading cards, the Garbage Pail Kids.Featuring viscerally queasy drawings of, say, a mushroom cloud detonating from the roof of a cheery toddler’s skull, or a Raggedy Ann facsimile barfing up dinner into a pot, the Garbage Pail Kids were a sensation among edgy preteens all over the world. They were also swiftly banned in a slew of schools. To this day, Mexico has a law restricting the import and export of Garbage Pail Kids material.“You know how Joe Manchin is a thorn in our side?” Spiegelman asked in a phone interview this week. “His uncle, A Jamie Manchin, was the state treasurer of West Virginia in the 80s. He said that Garbage Pail Kids should be banned because they’re subverting children. It runs in his family.“It reminds me that things keep changing, but we’re still dealing with permutations of the same struggles.”The latest permutation came last week, when the McMinn county board of education in Tennessee voted to remove Spiegelman’s 1991 Holocaust memoir, Maus, from its middle-school curriculum. Though the board cited the graphic novel’s use of non-sexual nudity and light profanity in defending its decision, the ban is part of a wave of scholastic censorship in the US, largely led by an agitated conservative movement and targeting books that deal with racism or LGBTQ issues.But the author of the Pulitzer prize–winning graphic novel, which tells the story of his parents’ experience as Polish Jews during theHolocaust, traces his own free speech radicalism to a very different inflection point in America’s censorship wars. As a teenager, Spiegelman found himself siding with the right of Nazis to march in Skokie, Illinois, a town with a significant population of Holocaust survivors.“The ACLU lost a lot of members because they defended their right to march,” he said. “And I just thought that seemed right. Let them march, and if there’s any more trouble, stop them. I thought that was a conversation that had to take place.

School boss debunks rumor that they provided kitty litter for 'furries' - It’s a load of kitty litter. A Michigan school district has debunked a wild claim that a school provided litter boxes for students who identified as “furries” — people who dress up as anthropomorphic animals. A Facebook post detailing the hilarious rumor is blowing up online.“There is no truth whatsoever to this false statement/accusation!” wrote Michael E. Sharrow, the superintendent for Midland Public Schools, near Detroit, which was accused of the bizarre concession at a Dec. 20 board meeting.At the school sit-down, concerned parent Lisa Hansen said she was “really disturbed” after reportedly learning from a student that “at least one of our schools in our town, in one of the unisex bathrooms, a litter box for the kids that identify as cats.“I’m all for creativity and imagination, but when someone lives in a fantasy world and expects other people to go along with it, I have a problem with that,” added Hansen, who defined “furry” as someone who identifies as a “cat or a dog, whatever.” She also claimed that the “nefarious” practice was part of a nationwide “agenda being pushed” within the education system.Footage of her spurious accusation was subsequently shared to Facebook Thursday by Michigan Republican Party co-chair Meshawn Maddock, who wrote, “Parent heroes will TAKE BACK our schools.”That same day, Sharrow took to Facebook to clarify that the rumor was, in fact, false.“It is unconscionable that this afternoon I am sending this communication, however, our Midland PS stakeholders may be confused about a false message/accusation that has resurfaced this week and is gaining traction in the social media realm,” he wrote.The boss added, “Let me be clear in this communication. There have never been litter boxes within MPS schools.” The social media criticisms flew fast and furry-ous. “I just can’t believe this is real,” sputtered one incredulous commenter, while another wrote, “What’s going on in this town? Another gawker wondered how the litter box system would even work, writing: “Logistically … no public school has the budget to afford kitty litter for a small percentage of their community to use also … ask yourself the last janitor you’ve met … would they scoop human feces out of a litter box?” There are an estimated 250,000 people in the US who identify as “furries,” a subculture whose members enjoy dressing up as cartoonish animals, sometimes as a sexual fetish but more often as a fun escape.

Tennessee pastor leads burning of Harry Potter and Twilight novels - A controversial Tennessee pastor led a book burning on Wednesday night to fight “demonic influences”, with a crowd incinerating copies of books including Harry Potter and Twilight. The burning, which was livestreamed on Facebook, followed last month’s decision by a Tennessee school district to ban the Holocaust-based graphic novel Maus. “We are well aware what we are stepping into. Bring it all. Stop allowing demonic influences into your home,” pastor and pro-Trump conspiracy theorist Greg Locke wrote in a Facebook post that has since been removed. “We will be in our continued series on Deliverance from Demons. We have stuff coming in from all over that we will be burning. We’re not playing games. Witchcraft and accursed things must go,” wrote Locke. Locke’s event in the Nashville suburb of Mt. Juliet drew large crowds as participants threw in copies of the Harry Potter and Twilight series , among other books. Prior to the burning, Locke said in a sermon that he was fighting the “Free Mason devils” and that “I ain’t gonna be suiciding myself no time soon”. “I ain’t messing with witches no more, I ain’t messing with witchcraft…I ain’t messing with demons… I’ll call all of them out in the name of Jesus Christ,” said Locke, as crowds of attendees cheered and applauded in response.

Teen Girls’ Sexy TikTok Videos Take a Mental-Health Toll – WSJ - When Jula Anderson joined TikTok at age 16, her first video featured her family’s home renovations. It got five likes. After seeing others post risqué videos and get more likes, she tried it, too. “I wanted to get famous on TikTok, and I learned that if you post stuff showing your body, people will start liking it,” Jula, now an 18-year-old high-school senior near Sacramento, Calif., said. Sudden TikTok fame is catching teens off guard, leaving many girls unprepared for the attention they thought they wanted, according to parents, therapists and teens. In some cases, predators target girls who make sexually suggestive videos; less-dangerous interactions can also harm girls’ self-esteem and leave them feeling exploited, they say.Mental-health professionals around the country are growing increasingly concerned about the effects on teen girls of posting sexualized TikTok videos. Therapists say teens who lack a group of close friends, and teens with underlying mental health issues—especially girls who struggle with disordered eating and body-image issues—are at particular risk.“For a young girl who’s developing her identity, to be swept up into a sexual world like that is hugely destructive,” said Paul Sunseri, a psychologist and director of the New Horizons Child and Family Institute in El Dorado Hills, Calif., where Jula began receiving treatment last year for anxiety and depression. “When teen girls are rewarded for their sexuality, they come to believe that their value is in how they look,” he said.He said approximately a quarter of the female patients at his clinic have produced sexualized content on TikTok.Carter Barnhart, co-founder of Charlie Health, a virtual mental-health care provider, said a growing number of teens she treats report their self-esteem is dependent on the quantity of likes they get on TikTok. “Many of them have figured out that the formula for that is producing more sexual content,” she said. Teens’ dependence on TikTok for social validation has risen as the app has become their favored platform. TikTok overtook Instagram in popularity among teens last year—and became the most visited site on the internet.TikTok’s algorithm regularly propels virtual nobodies onto millions of viewers’ For You pages. TikTok weighs whether viewers show strong interest in a particular type of content, measured by whether they finish watching videos, the company says. Its recommendation engine then chooses videos to send to those viewers, regardless of the creator’s follower count or past video virality.

Over half of all US teachers consider leaving the profession due to pandemic-related stressors - More than half of all teachers in the United States, or 55 percent, plan to leave education sooner than expected due to major stressors caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, according to a survey conducted in late January by GBAO Strategies on behalf of the National Education Association (NEA). Teachers identified concerns over COVID-19 and lack of safety protocols at their schools as the primary reasons behind their desire to leave their jobs. Only 38 percent of teachers said their schools had improved ventilation during the pandemic, and just 28 percent said they felt their school’s ventilation systems provided enough protection to help lower transmission. Highlighting the immense levels of stress and disillusionment teachers now experience, 90 percent of those surveyed said that burnout is a serious problem, and 91 percent said pandemic-related stress is a serious problem. The percentage of teachers compelled to leave the profession sooner than expected has steadily risen throughout the pandemic. A RAND corporation study found that in January and February 2021, one in four teachers said they were likely to leave, whereas previously one in six teachers were likely to leave. In August 2021, a separate NEA poll found that 37 percent of teachers expected to leave the profession early. Contrary to the lies promoted by the Biden administration and corporate media that the pandemic is over, that schools are the safest places for children and that the population can now return to normalcy, the opposite is the case. The criminal response by the ruling elite to the pandemic has completely transformed society, inflicting lasting trauma on the population due to ongoing mass death, infection and disability. The decades-long attack on public institutions such as healthcare and education has been qualitatively deepened during the pandemic. The official death toll in the US has now surpassed 900,000 deaths. According to Worldometer, an average of 2,500 Americans are dying every day from COVID-19, with deaths continuing to rise. Efforts to keep open the schools, no matter the human cost, have resulted in an explosion of new cases among children. In January alone, more than 3.5 million official child cases were recorded. According to data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), at least 1,239 children have died since the start of the pandemic in the US, with 144 of those deaths recorded in the past three weeks alone. More than 200,000 children in the US have lost a parent or caregiver during the pandemic. In-person instruction in schools, amid the present surge of the Omicron variant and lack of safety mitigation measures, has placed ongoing stress on children who not only worry about themselves, their peers and their teachers getting sick, but also that they might unwittingly infect their loved ones.

Virginia public universities drop vaccine mandates -- Virginia public universities, including the University of Virginia, Virginia Tech, Virginia Commonwealth University and George Mason University, have rescinded their COVID-19 vaccine mandates. The university system dropped its requirements last week after Virginia’s Republican attorney general, Jason Miyares, issued a legal opinion in late January advising that the universities do not have the authority to require vaccination. Miyares’ opinion was not legally binding, but the Commonwealth’s universities quickly adopted it as if it were law. The universities now strongly encourage, but do not require, vaccination against COVID-19. The Miyares opinion supersedes one by his predecessor, Democrat Mark Herring, who had advised that public colleges and universities had the authority to impose vaccine requirements. In his statement, Miyares contended that only the state legislature can decide public universities’ vaccination requirements. He wrote that while Virginia law grants universities the authority to “make regulations and policies concerning their respective institutions,” more specific aspects of the legal code list the vaccinations required of students. “While I encourage everyone to get the vaccine and believe it is a vital tool in our fight against COVID-19, Virginia public universities currently do not have the power to mandate the COVID-19 vaccine on students,” he argued. In an interview with WSET, Miyares said, “The code of Virginia 23.1-800 is very specific. You have six vaccines you have to take in order to graduate from a Virginia college or university and attend. The COVID-19 vaccine is not on that list.” The legislature currently requires public university students to be vaccinated against several diseases, including diphtheria, tetanus, polio, measles and mumps. According the Washington Post, Miyares “issued the new opinion following a request by [Republican Governor Glenn] Youngkin for legal guidance on whether the state’s public institutions of higher education could require vaccines for students.” University of Richmond law professor Carl Tobias said in comments to the Post that Miyares’ judgment put schools in an “awkward” situation. “The schools don’t have to obey the advisory opinions that the attorney general issues,” he said. “At the same time, though, they could risk running afoul of the attorney general and governor, in terms of funding, or whatever their relationships with those statewide officials and members of the General Assembly.”

Student petition calls for reinstatement of COVID safety policies at Baylor - A student at Baylor University, a private Christian university in Waco, Texaslaunched a petition that has gained close to 400 signatures as of this writing calling for the reinstatement of modest safety measures at the school in response to the Omicron surge. Baylor started classes in person on January 18, as many universities did in Texas and across the US, with little to no virtual options available for students nor safety measures in place. The student, Madi Snow, said she was at high risk of contracting COVID and developing severe illness, according to the campus newspaper the Baylorlariat. According to Baylor's dashboard, over 9,000 people have been infected since the start of the pandemic at the 20,000-student university. Baylor is in Waco, which has a population of some 136,000. Surrounding McLennan County has been ravaged by the pandemic, with 46,000 cases and 827 deaths from COVID-19 to date, according to the Texas Department of State Health Services. Only a few weeks ago hospitals in McLennan County had to restrict non-emergency procedures.' Texas’ COVID-19 death toll has exceeded total American combat deaths in the Vietnam War and Korean war combined, with 81,413 deaths, according to Worldometer. The current seven-day average estimate is over 25,000 people being infected per day. The main demands of the petition are the reinstatement of Baylor's pandemic attendance policy and for online options for students. The petition states that the university makes “no exceptions for students who test positive for COVID-19 or are exposed and need to quarantine” and that “any student attending fewer than 75% of a course automatically receives no credit. This amounts to an average of 3 to 6 absences in most courses.” That is, students who are sick as a result of COVID-19 may fail courses as a result. No doubt many students may feel compelled, out of academic considerations, to attend school sick in order to avoid failing as a result of the university’s policy, posing a risk both to themselves and others.

 Jill Biden Confirms Free Community College Won’t Be in Build Back Better Bill -First lady Jill Biden says President Biden will no longer promote two years of tuition-free community college as part of his Build Back Better agenda. Dr. Biden spoke Monday at the Community College National Legislative Summit in Washington, D.C. “Joe has also had to make compromises. Congress hasn’t passed the Build Back Better legislation yet. And free community college is no longer part of that package.” The White House is no longer actively negotiating with Democratic Senators Joe Manchin and Kyrsten Sinema, who’ve refused to support the Build Back Better bill. Democrats currently have just 49 senators available to vote in the 100-seat chamber, after New Mexico Senator Ben Ray Luján suffered a stroke and is not expected to return for weeks.

Asian students call on University of Toronto to take action after staff hands out 'hell money' Asian students at the University of Toronto are calling on the school's administration to address the "hell money" sent to them in envelopes for Lunar New Year last week. The students in a graduate residence received what is known as joss paper or incense paper instead of cash, according to NBC News. Money is normally given as a gift during the holiday. The bank notes are typically utilized in ceremonies for someone who has passed away but signify ill will when sent to someone who is living. The paper can be burned at funerals or ancestors' birthdays as an offering to those who have passed. “[It] sends them the message of ‘you are dead to me’ or even worse, ‘I wish you were dead,’” says an open letter to the school's administration signed by a number of student groups, according to NBC. “It is not only insulting, but heavily unacceptable.” Students created a Change.org petition calling for officials to launch a formal investigation into the incident and take additional steps to combat Asian hate on campus. The petition demands an official apology to all students, increased mental health support, a "detailed course of action" to prevent similar incidents in the future and a student-run system to monitor culturally insensitive actions. University of Toronto administrators apologized to those affected by the bank notes in a statement to NBC Asian America.

2021 Shkreli Awards: The 10 Worst Examples of Healthcare Profiteering and Dysfunction - The Incidental Economist. (video w/ Dr Aaron Carroll) - Each year, the Lown Institute gives out the Shkreli Awards, named for disgraced and imprisoned “Pharma Bro” Martin Shkreli. The awards go to the perpetrators of the most egregious examples of dysfunction and profiteering in healthcare. To be clear, these are not awards that anyone hopes to win. The whole bit serves as an opportunity to examine ways that the American health system puts profit over patients and organizes healthcare in ways that are bad for both patients and front-line health workers. Enjoy seething at this list of the 10 worst. The 10 Worst Examples of Healthcare Profiteering and Dysfunction – YouTube

COVID-19 linked to serious health complications during pregnancy - Pregnant individuals infected with SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19, are about 40% more likely to develop serious complications or die during pregnancy than those who aren’t infected with the virus, according to a nationwide study led by a University of Utah Health obstetrician. The researchers concluded that the severity of COVID-19 symptoms is a key indicator of heightened risk of pregnancy complications. This was particularly evident among the most severely ill people, who were three times more likely to develop pregnancy complications than those who tested negative or who were less affected by the disease.The study appears in the February 7, 2022, issue of JAMA. The researchers analyzed electronic medical records of 14,104 pregnant individuals treated at 17 medical centers nationwide that participate in the Eunice Kennedy Shriver NICHD Maternal-Fetal Medicine Units (MFMU) Network between March 1, 2020, and December 31, 2020. About 2,350 of these individuals tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 during pregnancy or within six weeks of delivery. More than 13% of those who tested positive developed pregnancy complications during the study compared to 9% of those who tested negative. All five of the maternal deaths occurred in the SARS-CoV-2 positive group. In addition, the researchers found that:

• Complications were more prevalent with moderate to severe COVID-19. Compared to those who had mild (flu-like) symptoms or were asymptomatic, pregnant individuals who had moderate or severe symptoms, requiring treatment with supplemental oxygen or ICU care, were about three times (26.1% vs. 9.2%) more likely to have serious pregnancy complications. These problems included eclampsia, severe high blood pressure, kidney failure and other end organ damage caused by high blood pressure, sepsis from infections other than SARS-CoV-2, and endometritis requiring prolonged administration of intravenous antibiotics.
• Premature birth was more likely in infected individuals. SARS-CoV-2 infection was significantly associated with premature birth and NICU admission. However, maternal SARS-CoV-2 was not associated with any other adverse outcomes among newborns. In fact, only 1.2% of newborns tested positive for the virus before discharge.
• People with certain characteristics were more likely to have complications. Individuals who tested positive and subsequently developed pregnancy complications were more likely to have a body mass index (BMI) of 30 or higher and identify as Hispanic or Black. These findings are consistent with other demographic findings among non-pregnant individuals infected with the virus, Metz says. Pregnant individuals who had moderate or severe COVID-19 symptoms were also at significantly higher risk of cesarean birth (45.4% vs. 32.4%) than those without SARS-CoV-2. However, cesarean birth rates were similar among those who had mild symptoms or were asymptomatic compared with those without SARS-CoV-2. “Some pregnant individuals who have COVID-19 are just too sick for us to attempt a vaginal birth,” Metz says. “In certain circumstances, such as the onset of preeclampsia, the fetus is also far less likely to tolerate it.” The study was also conducted prior to the widespread availability of mRNA vaccines.

CDC: COVID-19 hospitalizations 23 times higher for unvaccinated than boosted - Unvaccinated adults were 23 times more likely to be hospitalized with COVID-19 during the omicron wave than adults who were vaccinated and boosted, according to a new study that further highlights the importance of coronavirus vaccination and booster shots. The study, released Tuesday, from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) found by far the highest rates of cases and hospitalizations among unvaccinated people, followed by vaccinated but not boosted people, with vaccinated and boosted people having the most protection.The study used data from Los Angeles County as of Jan. 8, during the omicron wave.Hospitalizations were 5.3 times higher among the unvaccinated than vaccinated but not boosted.“Efforts to promote COVID-19 vaccination and boosters are critical to preventing COVID-19–associated hospitalizations and severe outcomes,” the study states.While the largest effects were in reducing hospitalizations, the study also shows that vaccines and boosters lowered the chance of getting infected at all. The protection is not total, meaning there are still frequent breakthrough cases, but the severity is far lower among people who are vaccinated and boosted than among the unvaccinated.Case rates among unvaccinated people were 3.6 times higher than vaccinated and boosted people, and two times higher than vaccinated and not boosted people, the study found. The study also found that, as expected, there was some drop-off in the performance of the vaccines against omicron compared with the delta variant, given omicron’s increased ability to evade protection. Gaps between the unvaccinated and vaccinated were even larger with the delta variant, with a hospitalization rate 83 times higher for the unvaccinated compared to boosted people, and a case rate 12.3 times higher.“Rate ratios indicated continued protection conferred by vaccine against severe disease, especially among those who had received a booster, although reduced for Omicron compared with Delta,” the study states.

Covid-19 Vaccinations -- February 7, 2022 --Holy mackerel! Vaccinations dropping like a rock. Link here. Every Monday I calculate the average number of Covid-19 vaccinations / day for the previous week. Note:

• about a month ago, Monday, January 10, 2022: 1,260,356
• Monday, January 17, 2022: 1,187,319
• Monday, January 24, 2022: 975,692

Courts start ruling again mandates:

• Monday, January 31, 2022: 575,732
• today, Monday, February 7, 2022: 611,742

A drop from 1,260,356 to 611,742: almost dropped in half in one month, after courts starting ruling against mandates.

 Johnson & Johnson stops Covid-19 vaccine production – NYT - US multinational Johnson & Johnson suspended production of its Covid-19 vaccine late last year amid a massive push by the federal government and health officials to promote getting inoculated, The New York Times reported on Tuesday, citing sources familiar with the situation. The pause in production is reportedly temporary, but the one plant producing the vaccine in the Dutch city of Leiden has apparently shifted its focus to producing a potentially more profitable vaccine for an unrelated virus. It’s unclear if the production pause has affected the availability of the single-jab Covid vaccine, as the company has a stockpile of doses. However, one person familiar with the situation says the suspension could mean a reduction in output of a few hundred million doses. The plant is expected to produce more after a few months’ break. Other facilities are awaiting regulatory approval or to actually be up and running to produce the Johnson & Johnson vaccine, according to the NYT report. Organizations that distribute the vaccine worldwide told the NYT they were unaware of the production pause, with some expressing concern about the timing. “This is not the time to be switching production lines of anything, when the lives of people across the developing world hang in the balance,” Dr. Ayoade Alakija, co-head of African Union vaccine distribution. Unlike the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines, Johnson & Johnson’s offering requires only a single shot for the initial inoculation, while the others are delivered via two shots.

Pfizer has pulled its FDA request to authorize a 2-dose shot for kids under 5, saying it will 'wait for the 3-dose data' - No COVID-19 vaccine for kids under 5 is going to be available this month after all. Pfizer announced on Friday that it will continue to "wait for the three-dose data" from its COVID-19 vaccine trial in kids 6 months to 5 years of age, before submitting for an Emergency Use Authorization with the US Food and Drug Administration this spring. "Given that the study is advancing at a rapid pace, the companies will wait for the three-dose data as Pfizer and BioNTech continue to believe it may provide a higher level of protection in this age group," the pharmaceutical company said in a release. "The companies expect to have three-dose protection data available in early April." The FDA's independent advisory group on vaccines was set to meet on February 15 to review Pfizer's two-dose data, but that meeting will now be put on hold until Pfizer's three-dose data is ready in a few months. "The extension allows the FDA time to receive updated data on the two- and three-dose regimen, conduct a thorough evaluation of it, and facilitate a robust, public discussion," Pfizer said. Pfizer is testing very small 3 microgram doses for kids under 5, which is 10% of the amount of mRNA adults get with Pfizer vaccines, and a third of the Pfizer mRNA dose for 5-11 year olds. The company announced in December that 2 doses of that size appeared to be enough for the youngest children in the trial, those 6 months to 2 years old. It did not seem to be sufficient to stimulate a good immune response in the older kids, aged 2 to 5. "A vaccine that doesn't work (but is safe) won't generate a ton of interest," Dr. Jeremy Faust, an emergency physician at Brigham and Women's Hospital, and a parent of a 3-year-old, said in a recent newsletter, pressing for more "solid" data on the Pfizer vaccine for children under 5. Pfizer hasn't shared any efficacy data on this age group publicly yet. The New York Times reported earlier this month, citing an anonymous source who was "familiar with the data," that 2- to 4-year-olds in Pfizer's trial for a two-dose vaccine "were infected at a rate 57% lower" than their unvaccinated counterparts in the study. For younger kids in the trial — aged 6 months to 2 years old — their risk of COVID-19 was reduced by 50% if they received the vaccine. Moderna is testing out larger vaccine doses than Pfizer in its KidCove study, but the company has yet to report any pediatric results. In a statement released on Friday, the FDA said that it had asked Pfizer to submit the two-dose data "given the recent Omicron surge and the notable increase in hospitalizations in the youngest children to their highest levels during the pandemic." That was a highly unusual move for the regulatory agency. (Usually, it is the pharmaceutical company's job to submit clinical trial data when they are ready, without the FDA asking for it first.)

US COVID vaccine for children under 5 delayed by at least 2 months - A US decision on Pfizer and BioNTech's COVID-19 vaccine for infants and children 6 months through 4 years of age has been postponed for at least two months after the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) said it needed more data. The FDA had planned to decide on the vaccine based on early trial data as soon as next week with the government planning to roll it out on Feb. 21. It had asked Pfizer to speed up its application as the Omicron variant of the coronavirus caused a surge of infections, including among children.

The Doctor Will See You Now—Wait, Not You - Wall Street Journal - Doctors are increasingly refusing to treat the unvaccinated. Physicians in Alabama, Florida, the District of Columbia and Toronto have dismissed unvaccinated patients from their practices. A Texas task force has considered reserving beds in intensive-care units solely for the vaccinated. Among my fellow bioethicists, incredulity and anger run high against so-called antivaxxers. Behind closed doors I’ve heard repeated calls to punish them by charging higher insurance premiums, withholding scarce medications or refusing treatment. Some argue it is ethical to decline to treat those who refuse the Covid jab. Prohibiting unvaccinated patients from entering clinics protects both healthcare workers and high-risk patients and can motivate patients to accept the vaccines. It seems logical that refusing to treat the unvaccinated will reduce harm and promote good. But ethics is far more complicated than a simple calculation of risks and benefits. As a physician and ethicist, I am a strong advocate of vaccination. Although the Omicron variant has evaded both vaccine-induced and infection-induced immunity, in my experience, the large majority of patients hospitalized with Covid-19 in intensive-care units didn’t take the shot. Throughout the pandemic, the unvaccinated have faced greater risk of severe illness, hospitalization and death. They’ve also risked harming others by inadvertently spreading disease. But refusing to care for the unvaccinated can itself inflict harm. Nearly 1 in 5 healthcare workers have left their jobs during the pandemic. Nursing shortages abound. There’s no guarantee that patients dismissed by one clinician will find another. Patients may not be able to fill prescriptions or manage chronic conditions. Many will eventually wind up in the hospital, which can only worsen staffing and supply shortages. Doctors who seek to punish the unvaccinated end up punishing their own colleagues. What’s more, refusing to treat patients amplifies divisiveness at a time when cultural and ideological divisions seem stronger than ever. Researchers at Northeastern University have shown that people who perceive higher levels of partisan polarization are at greater risk for depression and anxiety. The pandemic has already taken years off our lives. Physicians who choose the partisan route of abandoning the unvaccinated risk worsening the nation’s physical and mental health. Denying care to the unvaccinated also violates the ethical principle of treating all patients justly, regardless of their complicity in becoming sick. Almost no one exercises enough, eats perfectly or takes medications exactly as prescribed. We doctors don’t dismiss patients for smoking or drinking too much. Why punish them for refusing the Covid shot?

Omicron wave devastates US nursing home residents and staff - COVID-19 infections and deaths among nursing home residents and staff took a terrible toll last month according to the latest health data. In the week ending January 23, there were 42,584 resident cases, according to Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) data. This number surpassed the record set during last winter’s surge, when vaccines were just becoming available. The number of resident deaths increased each week in the last month, with 1,298 people dying from the virus in the week ending January 23. However, this figure is down from the 4,100 deaths reported in the same week from last year, according to the CDC. Nevertheless, the latest figures show how hard the highly contagious Omicron variant has hit the at-risk group of nursing home residents and staff with another preventable wave of infections and deaths. During the week that ended January 9, there were more than 32,000 cases of COVID-19 among nursing home residents, with 645 deaths, a sevenfold increase from just a month earlier and a 47 percent rise in deaths. Among staff, there were 57,000 cases in the same week, a 10-fold increase from a month earlier. These figures come on the heels of a report by the Kaiser Family Foundation, which found that more than 200,000 residents and staff in long-term care facilities have died since the pandemic began in early 2020, accounting for at least 23 percent of all COVID-19 deaths in the US.

 I-Team: Las Vegas wastewater surveillance shows decline in omicron, spike in 'stealth variant' -— Data from what the Las Vegas Valley is flushing shows a deep decline in omicron, but a spike in the so-called “stealth omicron” variant, scientists at UNLV tell the 8 News Now I-Team. Southern Nevada Water Authority scientists take samples from wastewater to see how much coronavirus is in our sewer system. Dr. Edwin Oh, an associate professor at the school’s Neurogenetics and Precision Medicine Lab, and other researchers analyze the samples, which help public health leaders find spikes and clusters before they can be identified through traditional testing methods. In early January, data from wastewater treatment plants across southern Nevada showed coronavirus levels at all-time highs. Scientists at UNLV first found the omicron variant in samples of wastewater in December, Oh said. Coronavirus primarily affects our lungs, but the virus also causes secondary infections of the gastrointestinal tract. As the virus duplicates and is shed out of our bodies, some identifiable factors show up in our waste. Recent data shows a steep decline in omicron in wastewater, but a rise in its variant. Stealth omicron has mutations that could make it more contagious and harder to detect, giving it its “stealth” name. Leaders at the Southern Nevada Health District (SNHD) confirmed the first stealth omicron case in Clark County on Jan. 28. The woman in her 40s was fully vaccinated. As of this week, Oh said he estimated 5% to 10% of the infected population has the stealth variant. The good news is initial research shows no difference in hospitalization between the two variants, Oh said. “Based on current information about the BA.2 variant, there is no evidence that it causes more severe disease than the original Omicron variant,” SNHD officials said late last month. COVID-19 cases stayed under 900 in Clark County, but 43 deaths were reported in data released Tuesday. Clark County’s 884 new cases accounted for about 55% of the state’s total — 1,588. But the county’s 43 deaths made up 86% of the state’s total of 50 deaths.

NEW: Cases, hospitalizations declining rapidly as 42 deaths reported statewide - — COVID-19 cases dropped dramatically in Clark County and across Nevada in weekend reports released today. Clark County reported a total of 1,667 new cases in tests reported for Friday, Saturday and Sunday. The state’s total was 2,541 — about a quarter of the COVID-19 cases reported just a week ago. A steep drop in the number of COVID-19 patients in hospitals was also reported. Hospitalizations declined by 231 patients statewide and by 204 patients in Clark County. The declines should provide relief for hospital staffs that had been pressed to keep up with demand for most of January. Statewide, 42 deaths were reported over the three-day period, with 28 deaths coming from Clark County. The Southern Nevada Health District’s weekly update on breakthrough cases showed 49 breakthrough deaths reported from Jan. 27-Feb. 3. But the number of new COVID-19 infections involving fully vaccinated people dropped to half the number from the previous week. Deaths are commonly reported days — even weeks — after they actually occur showed 49 breakthrough deaths reported from Jan. 27-Feb. 3. But the number of new COVID-19 infections involving fully vaccinated people dropped to half the number from the previous week. Deaths are commonly reported days — even weeks — after they actually occur. COVID-19 test positivity rates are still falling, with Clark County now at 26.4%. Nevada’s rate is at 28.1%. The county’s test positivity rate has now fallen every day since Jan. 21, when it hit its peak at 38.2%. Before that, it had skyrocketed for 29 days from 8.0% on Dec. 22. The lower infection rate doesn’t mean the virus isn’t still circulating. The omicron variant is highly contagious, and vaccines have proven to reduce the chance of severe illness. Health officials emphasize the importance of getting vaccinated and wearing a mask indoors in public places. The graphs below show the test positivity for the state (first image), followed by Clark County’s test positivity rate.

 All states report declining or stabilizing COVID cases - All states across the US are seeing COVID-19 cases decline or stabilize following a surge fueled by the Omicron variant, the latest data shows.The number of new infections nationwide has plunged 61 percent since peaking less than a month ago, according to federal data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.Daily cases were averaging more than 800,000 at the height of the Omicron surge on Jan. 15. Now, cases are averaging just over 313,000 per day, the data shows. New nationwide infections have dropped 56 percent in the last two weeks alone. California, Florida, Illinois, Massachusetts, New Jersey, New York and Pennsylvania are among the states that have seen huge case declines since last month, the data shows.Hospitalizations are also dropping across the country, with the average number of new patients being admitted per day coming in at just under 14,000. The number of new infections nationwide has plunged 61 percent. It is a 35 percent drop from the 21,000 patients admitted with COVID in mid-January, according to the data.COVID-related deaths, which are a lagging indicator, have yet to show the same downward trajectory following the Omicron surge.The daily average number of COVID fatalities is currently 2,400 — down considerably from the peak average of 3,400 per day recorded a year ago.

Coronavirus Dashboard for February 8: Omicron declines sharply; did Delta provide protection against the worst outcomes? - I haven’t posted a Coronavirus dashboard in awhile, and with Omicron in rapid retreat, it’s time for an update. To begin with, deaths are presently peaking at roughly 2450 a day, while nationwide cases are down almost 2/3’s: There are over a dozen States where numbers are now down close to, at, or even below their pre-Omicron outbreak levels. In particular, the Northeast region and Puerto Rico down over 85%. NY, NJ, CT, DC, DE, and MD are at the same level as they were last April, well below their winter 2020-21 peaks, and as of yesterday were still declining with no signs of stopping. *If* the current rate of decline of 50% per week is maintained, they will be at last June’s lows in about 4 weeks: One thing that is somewhat surprising is that the relative rates of cases from Omicron does not correlate that strongly with previous vaccination rates. To cut to the chase, a previous bad Delta outbreak may have provided some protection against Omicron. Here are the last 8 weeks (basically the time since Omicron hit) for the 10 most vaccinated (with 2 or more doses) jurisdictions, compared with the nationwide level (in red): Note that many of them had substantially worse Omicron outbreaks than the average. And here are the 10 least vaccinated jurisdictions: Many of these had *lower* numbers than the national average. It appears that the heavily vaccinated jurisdictions, being urban travel hubs, were exposed to Omicron first, and are further along in their declines, while the least vaccinated jurisdictions tend to be more rural, were hit later, and are declining less so far (and Tennessee is still increasing!). This pattern is more evident when we compare the jurisdictions with the lowest current rates of infection: With those having the highest current rates of infection: Again, urban areas were hit earlier, and have declined from peak more sharply than more rural areas. The pattern is similar when we turn to deaths. For the US as a whole, total deaths in the past 8 weeks average 31.3 per 100,000. Here’s the death rates for the 10 most vaccinated jurisdictions (including PR, but not DC): While some highly vaccinated States - CA, OR, WA - have among the best records, others - PA - do not. And while some of the least vaccinated States - WV, MI - have terrible records, several others - FL, MT, UT - have among the best records. To sum up, Omicron seems to have hit highly urbanized areas first and hardest, and more rural areas later on. In the urban areas, cases are declining sharply, while in rural areas deaths are still at or nearer their peaks. Vaccination status seems to be only weakly correlated with Omicron outcomes. This probably doesn’t have anything to do with any shortcomings in the vaccines, but rather the effect of recent bad Delta outbreaks (concentrated in the poorly vaccinated States) providing some protection against the worst outcomes from Omicron.

 Mexico City gave ivermectin to thousands of covid patients. Officials face an ethics backlash. - — As the coronavirus coursed through Mexico City early last year, ravaging neighborhoods and overwhelming hospitals, local officials made an unusual decision. They gave out tens of thousands of medical kits to covid-19 patients containing ivermectin, an anti-parasitic medication. The drug has been championed by anti-vaccine activists around the world as a cure for covid-19 — despite warnings from international health authorities that there’s insufficient evidence of any such benefit. Mexico City officials eventually declared their effort a success. They issued an academic paper last spring saying the medical kits had significantly reduced hospitalization rates. That finding, they said, “supports ivermectin-based interventions” to ease the coronavirus pandemic’s burden on health systems. Now city authorities are facing a backlash. A U.S.-based academic site that had posted their paper,SocArXiv, withdrew it last Friday, charging it was “promoting an unproved medical treatment in the midst of a global pandemic.” The site accused city officials of bad science and unethical behavior — in effect, of using citizens like rats in a giant laboratory experiment, without their consent. The decision has detonated a storm on social media. Opposition politicians are demanding an investigation.What makes the scandal remarkable isn’t just the scale of Mexico City’s program — nearly 200,000 kits with ivermectin were distributed — but who was advocating it. Unlike in the United States, where ivermectin has been promoted by conservative commentators (and star podcaster Joe Rogan), the drug was championed in Mexico by leftist intellectuals in top government jobs.Mexico City’s government has boasted of confronting the coronavirus with science-driven policies including widespread testing and vaccination. Mayor Claudia Sheinbaum holds a doctorate in environmental engineering. Yet even as Mexico’s federal government cautioned against using ivermectin to treat the illness, desperate city leaders were lured by a drug that has dazzled politicians from Alaskato India.

China locks down city of 3.5 million near Vietnam border– A Chinese city of 3.5 million near the border with Vietnam was on lockdown Monday after more than 70 coronavirus cases were discovered there over the past three days. China, the only major world economy still sticking to a staunch zero-Covid policy, is on high alert for any outbreaks as it hosts the Beijing Winter Olympics. Local officials in the city of Baise in the southern Guangxi region announced Sunday that no one would be allowed to leave the city, while residents of some districts would be confined to their homes. "Citywide traffic controls will be implemented," vice-mayor Gu Junyan told a briefing. "In principle, vehicles and people cannot enter or leave the city... with personnel control strictly enforced and no unnecessary movement of people." Residents of some neighbourhoods in smaller rural cities and counties under Baise's jurisdiction have been placed under strict home confinement, while others cannot leave their district, Gu added. Baise, located about 100 kilometres (62 miles) from the Vietnamese border, on Friday discovered its first local case -- a traveller who had returned home for the week-long Lunar New Year holiday, according to officials. Since the pandemic, China has built a heavily enforced wire mesh fence along its southern border to keep out illegal migrants from Vietnam and Myanmar -- as well as potential Covid-19 infections. Mass testing is already under way for residents, authorities said. Since the coronavirus pandemic first emerged two years ago in Hubei province's Wuhan, China has used strict local lockdowns, mass testing and contact-tracing apps to try and eliminate outbreaks as soon as cases are detected, sparing the country the mass deaths witnessed around the rest of the world. Millions were confined to their homes in multiple Chinese cities in the run-up to the Olympics after cases involving both the Delta and Omicron coronavirus variants flared. The outbreaks were mostly stamped out. In December, 13 million residents of the northern megacity of Xi'an were placed under strict home confinement for over a month after an outbreak of more than 2,000 cases. Residents complained of grocery shortages and overly harsh enforcement of lockdown measures by local officials, which saw patients blocked from receiving critical medical treatment, leading to deaths in some cases. China reported 79 new cases nationwide Monday, of which 37 were in Guangxi. Meanwhile, Hong Kong's zero-Covid policy is on the ropes after a record number of new infections was announced over the weekend, sending officials scrambling to ramp up testing capacity and warning that a tightening of virus-control measures could be needed. China's borders with the rest of the world, including Hong Kong, are largely sealed.

Hong Kong announces its toughest social-distancing rules yet as cases reach record highs. - Hong Kong will institute its tightest social-distancing rules since the start of the pandemic to curb its largest coronavirus outbreak so far, as a wave of Omicron cases has raised questions about how long the city can continue its strict Covid-control policies. Hong Kong will require hair salons and places of worship to close for two weeks starting Thursday, and no more than two households will be allowed to meet in private, Carrie Lam, Hong Kong’s chief executive, said on Tuesday. Public gatherings will be limited to two people. Shopping malls, grocery stores and markets will join the list of public places where visitors must register with an official contact tracing app. People visiting those sites, which include restaurants, will have to prove they have been vaccinated. Fines for not following mandatory testing orders will be doubled to nearly $1,300. The city of 7.5 million has largely managed to avoid the worst of the pandemic, recording 213 Covid deaths over the past two years. But the spread of the highly transmissible Omicron variant since late December now threatens to overwhelm Hong Kong’s aggressive contact tracing and quarantine efforts. Since last week it has set several daily highs for new case totals, with more than 600 added on Monday and again on Tuesday. The surging number of cases has forced the city to stop hospitalizing all Covid patients. On Tuesday it began sending some people with few or no symptoms to the government quarantine center at Penny’s Bay. And some close contacts who were previously required to go to Penny’s Bay will now be allowed to quarantine at home.

Australia: Over 500 COVID-19 deaths in residential aged care since January 1 - As COVID-19 infections soar across Australia, record numbers of outbreaks and deaths are being recorded in residential aged care facilities. This is a result of the murderous “let it rip” policy being pursued by state, territory and federal governments, Labor and Liberal-National alike, sacrificing lives to ensure the uninterrupted flow of corporate profits. Almost one-third of COVID-19 deaths recorded in Australia since the start of this year have occurred in residential aged care, with 533 deaths of aged care residents reported from January 1 to February 4. The death toll in the sector is higher than the 282 deaths recorded in the entirety of 2021, and fast approaching the 685 deaths recorded throughout 2020. There are at least 1,176 active outbreaks of COVID-19 in residential aged care facilities across the country, with 5,439 active infections among aged care residents and 6,541 among staff. The majority of active outbreaks are in NSW (525 facilities), followed by Victoria (275), Queensland (202) and South Australia (137). The pandemic has intensified a decades-long crisis in aged care. Deepening privatisation and the gutting of public healthcare carried out by successive governments, Labor and Liberal-National, has meant that the needs of the elderly are subordinated to the profit requirements of the corporate and financial elite. Numerous reports and inquiries over decades have revealed abysmal conditions in aged care, with chronic understaffing, a lack of trained staff, and inadequate resources producing the neglect and abuse of residents, who suffer widespread malnutrition, dehydration, untreated sores and infections and social isolation. Nothing has been done to boost the aged care system during the pandemic. In its May 2021 annual budget, the Liberal-National Coalition government announced it would spend a measly $17.7 billion over the next five years on aged care. This is a mere fraction of the $20 billion per year the 2018 Royal Commission into Aged Care calculated as the minimum the sector would require to address the crisis. With large numbers of workers furloughed due to COVID-19 infection or exposure, aged care staff face increasingly brutal workloads. There is constant pressure to work overtime, and staff have reported working as many as 15 days in a row. Some aged care workers who are close contacts of positive COVID-19 cases have been ordered back to work while potentially infectious. Staff in the sector continue to be forced to work across multiple sites. A prohibition on this practice was lifted in November 2020 and has not been reinstated, although this was one of the main ways the coronavirus entered aged care facilities in previous outbreaks. The rapid spread of COVID-19 through aged care facilities has also been fuelled by a lack of appropriate personal protective equipment (PPE), including the necessary N95 or P2 masks, shortages of Rapid Antigen Tests, and inadequate infection control measures.

 COVID cases explode in Russia and Ukraine amid war crisis - As the imperialist powers are stepping up their war campaign against Russia over Ukraine, threatening the lives of millions, Omicron is ravaging the population in both countries, where almost each day brings a new record in case numbers. On Wednesday, Russia for the first time reported over 183,000 cases, more than ten times the figure of a month ago. Saint Petersburg is now leading the country with over 19,000 reported new cases, followed by Moscow. Over 20,000 people are being hospitalized every day. The daily death toll is also climbing rapidly, reaching 669 on Wednesday. In Ukraine, cases hit over 38,000, a bit less than Friday’s record of over 43,000 cases, but still significantly more than during any previous wave. 250 people died, more than double the figure of 115 deaths on Monday. The Guardian recently noted that the high number of cases could affect the fighting capacity of the Ukrainian military should a war break out. Two thousand four hundred of Ukraine’s 150,000 land forces are officially infected, but the real number is likely much higher as testing occurs only sporadically before major social gatherings or if someone has symptoms. In the Russian and Ukrainian armies, vaccination rates are 95 and 99 percent respectively, much higher than among the general population where it stands only at about 50 percent in Russia and just over a third in Ukraine. Under conditions where Omicron widely infects even those who are fully vaccinated or even boosted, the policies of both oligarchic governments have ensured that the population is left with almost no protection against infection. As elsewhere, two years into the pandemic, neither Moscow nor Kiev have informed the population about the airborne transmission of the virus and only very few people wear N95 masks, if they’re wearing any masks at all. Mirroring the response of the imperialist powers to the pandemic, the oligarchies in both countries refuse to impose further lockdowns. While the Kremlin transferred most of the government's work online weeks ago and has scheduled only three parliamentary sessions for this month, most workers are obliged to show up for work unless their employers grant them permission to work remotely, or until the virus forces their workplace to shut down. Again mirroring the trends in Western Europe and the US, the Kremlin has been scrapping whatever few preventive measures have remained. As Omicron surged in the second half of January, the government reduced quarantine time from 14 to 7 days. Since Monday, people who have been sick with COVID for a week now have to return to work without even taking a PCR test showing whether they are positive or negative. The situation facing children (and their parents) is particularly horrific. According to Russia’s health minister, Mikhail Murashko, 20 percent of all new cases occur among children. This is almost twice as much as the official rate of about 11 percent during the peak of the Delta wave last fall. At the time, Russian officials acknowledged that 13.5 percent of all children who had been infected would go on to experience long COVID symptoms, which can be extremely debilitating and include headaches, various neurological symptoms and the loss of several IQ points.

Urban air pollution affects 2.5 billion people worldwide, study says - The Washington Post -About 86 percent of people living in urban areas worldwide — 2.5 billion people — are being exposed to air pollution levels roughly seven times greater than World Health Organization guidelines, according to new research, led by George Washington University researchers and published in the Lancet Planetary Health journal. Based on about two decades of data from more than 13,000 cities, the researchers attributed 1.8 million deaths in 2019 to these unhealthy levels of urban air pollution, primarily in the form of tiny particulate matter (PM2.5) — microscopic liquid droplets or solid particles in the air that are inhalable. The researchers estimate that about a third of the deaths attributed to particulate matter could have been avoided if cities had met the WHO guidelines. Generally, the smaller the particles, the greater their chances of damaging people’s health. For instance, PM2.5 particles, which have a diameter of 2.5 micrometers or less, are small enough to invade the lungs and bloodstream. Considered the leading environmental risk factor for disease, particulate matter can damage the heart and lungs, leading to cardiovascular disease, respiratory infection, lung cancer and more. It also can aggravate asthma. A separate study by the research team, published in the same issue of the journal, found that nearly 2 million cases of asthma in children worldwide were newly diagnosed in 2019 and attributed to urban air pollution.

EPA science advisers recommend tighter soot air quality standards in draft document In a new draft document, the Environmental Protection Agency’s (EPA) science advisers recommended that the agency tighten its air quality standards for soot pollution after the Trump administration declined to make such a move. The new draft that was released Friday by the EPA’s Clean Air Scientific Advisory Committee (CASAC) says “all CASAC members agree that the current level of the annual standard is not sufficiently protective of public health and should be lowered.”In late 2020, the Trump administration declined to tighten the standard for soot pollution, leaving it at the level finalized under the Obama administration. But in June 2021, the Biden administration said that it would reconsider that decision. In October, the agency identified evidence for tightening the standard, saying in a draft assessment that air quality analyses and risk can “reasonably be viewed as calling into question the adequacy of the public health protection afforded by the ... standards.”The Trump administration’s decision was controversial, as critics noted that findings reviewed by the agency have linked exposure to the pollution to as many as 52,100 premature deaths and suggested that stricter standards could save thousands of people. Soot pollution has been linked to heart attacks, aggravated asthma and decreased lung function, as well as premature deaths. This type of pollution comes from sources including fires, smokestacks and construction sites, as well as from pollution released by power plants and cars. The new draft from the CASAC bolsters the EPA’s plans, and it is expected to propose a rule that reevaluates the current standards this summer and finalizes the rule next year.The document said that the majority of CASAC members said the standard should be lowered significantly, from allowing concentrations of 12 micrograms of soot per cubic meter of air to allowing between 8 and 10 micrograms. A minority of the members preferred a less stringent standard of between 10 and 11 micrograms per cubic meter. They all agreed that the current standards put people at risk from soot, which is also known as fine particulate matter or PM2.5. Last year, EPA Administrator Michael Regan took the unusual step of firing and replacing CASAC’s members, after some Trump-era appointees came under scrutiny for industry ties. At the time, the EPA said its decision was made to reverse undue industry influence, but Republicans criticized it as a “political purge.”Meanwhile, the EPA also said last year that it would reinstate a panelmade up of scientists who are considered experts on soot pollution that was disbanded under the Trump administration in 2018.

Environmental groups to sue EPA over state enforcement of air pollution rules - Several conservation and tribal groups plan to sue the Environmental Protection Agency. They say the EPA hasn’t lived up to its obligation to require states to reduce air pollution. The Sierra Club and nearly 40 other groups say the EPA hasn’t enforced the latest round of regional haze rules under the Clean Air Act. It requires states to submit a draft plan to reduce air pollution. But the organizations say 39 states, including Arizona, didn’t do so by last summer’s deadline. They also say the EPA didn’t issue a formal finding that the states missed the cutoff date by its own deadline at the end of January. According to the groups, the coal-fired Coronado and Springerville generating stations in eastern Arizona are some of the state’s biggest polluters, emitting sulfur dioxide and nitrogen oxides that affect public health and the environment and create haze on public lands and elsewhere. Pollution frequently impacts visibility at Grand Canyon National Park, which is under the highest level of Clean Air Act protection. According to the park, coal-fired power plants, wildfires, transportation and industrial pollutants from Mexico and California are to blame. In addition, tribal conservationists say the haze can drift onto the Navajo Nation and other Indigenous lands.

White House regs shop delayed air pollution reg for months - In one of his first executive orders last year, President Biden set a firm timetable for one top priority: By this past August, EPA was supposed to publish a proposed blueprint for undoing a particularly inflammatory Trump administration rollback that scrapped the legal basis for limits on power plant emissions of mercury, arsenic and other hazardous pollutants.Instead, the agency only recently released its draft rule, and newly disclosed records suggest that a key White House office purposely sat on it long after a routine review had effectively ended.“We don’t have any more comments,” Vlad Dorjets, an analyst in the Office of Information and Regulatory Affairs, told his EPA counterparts in an email last September as the assessment wound down. After saying he had moved to allow EPA’s policy office to upload clean versions of the final documents, Dorjets added: “In the meantime, I will check with my front office to make sure we have green light to conclude our review.”But another four months passed before the regulations office, known as OIRA, sent the final draft back to EPA.While administration officials have publicly offered no explanation for the unusual holdup, The New York Times last week cited unnamed sources who said the White House didn’t want to risk antagonizing industry and members of Congress by releasing the draft while trying to rally support for its “Build Back Better” climate and social spending bill.Whatever the reason, one advocate expressed concern that the administration was manipulating a process designed to solicit feedback from other agencies on the draft.“It was not an OIRA review by the book,” said Amit Narang, regulatory policy advocate for the liberal-leaning group Public Citizen.Once OIRA officials conclude their appraisal of a rulemaking, he said, “they are supposed to allow the agency to publish it at their discretion.” In the intervening four months, Narang said, an official government website, Reginfo.gov, inaccurately showed that the proposed rule remained under review.He said he saw similarities to the Trump administration’s 2018 handling of an equally controversial plan to limit EPA’s use of science that was pushed through OIRA in a few days so that then-EPA Administrator Scott Pruitt could unveil it at an event with members of Congress (Greenwire, April 27, 2018).The recently released Biden administration proposal would restore the finding — revoked two years ago — that it is “appropriate and necessary” to regulate hazardous air pollutants from coal- and oil-fired power plants (E&E News PM, Jan. 31).

Preventing pandemics costs far less than controlling them - We can pay now or pay far more later. That’s the takeaway of a new peer-reviewed study, published Feb. 4 in the journal Science Advances, that compares the costs of preventing a pandemic to those incurred trying to control one. “It turns out prevention really is the best medicine,” said Stuart Pimm, Doris Duke Professor of Conservation Ecology at Duke University, who was co-lead author of the study. “We estimate we could greatly reduce the likelihood of another pandemic by investing as little as 1/20^th of the losses incurred so far from COVID into conservation measures designed to help stop the spread of these viruses from wildlife to humans in the first place.”A smart place to start, the study shows, would be investing in programs to end tropical deforestation and international wildlife trafficking, stop the wild meat trade in China, and improve disease surveillance and control in wild and domestic animals worldwide.COVID, SARS, HIV, Ebola and many other viruses that have emerged in the last century originated in wild places and wild animals before spreading to humans, the study’s authors note. Tropical forest edges where humans have cleared more than 25% of the trees for farming or other purposes are hotbeds for these animal-to-human virus transmissions, as are markets where wild animals, dead or alive, are sold.“The bottom line is, if we don’t stop destroying the environment and selling wild species as pets, meat or medicine, these diseases are just going to keep coming. And as this current pandemic shows, controlling them is inordinately costly and difficult,” Pimm said. “It's been two years since COVID emerged and the cure still isn’t working. Not enough people are vaccinated in the U.S, where shots are available and we can afford them, and not enough vaccines are going to other countries that can’t afford them.” The new study, by epidemiologists, economists, ecologists, and conservation biologists at 21 institutions, calculates that by investing an amount equal to just 5% of the estimated annual economic losses associated with human deaths from COVID into environmental protection and early-stage disease surveillance, the risks of future zoonotic pandemics could be reduced by as much as half. That could help save around 1.6 million lives a year and reduce mortality costs by around $10 trillion annually.

Agricultural fungicides may be driving antimicrobial resistance - New research from the University of Georgia has shown, for the first time, that compounds used to fight fungal diseases in plants are causing resistance to antifungal medications used to treat people. The study focused on Aspergillus fumigatus, the fungus that causes aspergillosis, a disease that causes life-threatening infections in 300,000 people globally each year. Published in G3: Genes, Genomes, Genetics, the study linked agricultural use of azoles—compounds used to fight fungal diseases in plants—to diminished effectiveness of the clinical azoles used to treat fungal infections in patients. “Our results show that resistance to the compounds used to combat fungal infections in humans is developing in agricultural environments,” said Marin T. Brewer, a corresponding author of the study and an associate professor of mycology in the College of Agricultural and Environmental Sciences. “The samples that we collected in agricultural settings were resistant to both the azoles used in the environment and the clinical azoles used to treat people.”Fungi can be a menace for both people and plants, causing over 1.5 million human deaths annually and crop losses of 20%.It’s not unusual to find A. fumigatus in the environment. It’s airborne, and it’s everywhere. Most people breathe it in without problem, but it can cause serious infections in people who have weakened immune systems.When they’re infected by a strain of the fungus that’s resistant to agricultural azole fungicide, the clinical azole drugs used in health care are also ineffective.“Azole-resistant A. fumigatus is widespread in agricultural environments and especially things like compost,” said Michelle Momany, a corresponding author of the study and a professor of fungal biology in the Department of Plant Biology in the Franklin College of Arts and Sciences. “Someone who is immunocompromised and at risk for fungal infections should be very cautious in those settings.”

Agriculture Department to put $1 billion toward climate-friendly farming -The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) will invest up to $1 billion in pilot projects that reduce planet-warming emissions or store carbon to prevent them from being released into the air.The department announced its new Partnerships for Climate-Smart Commodities initiative on Monday, saying it will aim to support “climate-smart” farmers, ranchers and forest landowners. Practices that can receive funding under the initiative include reforestation and sustainable forest management,and feed management for animals to cut the amount of planet-warming glasses they belch. Funding for the project will come from the Commodity Credit Corporation, a government-owned corporation whose funds are used to implement programs established by Congress. “USDA will provide targeted funding to meet national and global demand and expand market opportunities for climate-smart commodities to increase the competitive advantage of American producers,” Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack said in a statement on the program.It was met with some Republican pushback, as Sen. Roger Marshall (R-Kan.) accused the department of trying to get around Congress. “While I am a staunch supporter of conservation and believe farmers are the original conservationists, I write today with concerns that the USDA is using the Commodity Credit Corp. (CCC) account in an attempt to circumvent the Farm Bill process where programs are established by and with congressional consent,” he wrote in a letter to Vilsack on Monday.

Like diamonds, clay soils are forever -- When you walk about your yard on a wet day, do your shoes stick in the mud? Could you make ceramic pots out of the soil in your garden? If the answers are yes to both, odds are you have clay soil, one of the biggest challenges for the home gardener. Clay soils in the Willamette Valley are the result of geologic actions that took place during the end of the last ice age—some 10,000–14,000 years ago, said Linda Brewer, senior faculty research assistant in Oregon State University's College of Agricultural Sciences. Repeated flooding on an apocalyptic scale overflowed into what is today the Willamette Valley. Very fine clay particles take far longer to settle out of water than larger sand and silt particles, Brewer explained. On average, these larger particles settled out further north in the valley, although clays can certainly be found in the Portland area. The largest clay particle is more than 1,000 times smaller than the smallest sand particle. Gravity causes these larger particles to settle out first. Clay soils are difficult to work up and develop into a good seedbed. Dry clay tends to be very hard and, if wet, it tends to be very sticky and difficult to manage. But clay soils have their attributes, Brewer said. Clay particles are so small that they have slight electrical charges. These charges hold on to plant nutrients, far better than sand. Clay soils also store large amounts of water in the very fine spaces between their particles. This ability contributes to their stickiness and plasticity. However, this water, held in such small pores, becomes difficult for plants to take up as the soil dries. Sandy soils drain readily because the spaces between the particles of sand are much larger. "Like diamonds, clay soils are highly structured at the atomic level," Brewer said. "No amount of sand added to a clay soil will change its texture. The large sand particles provide a surface onto which the tiny clay particles adhere. The result can be more difficult to manage than the original clay. "Think of the action of a potter's hands on the clay as the potter's wheel turns. The potter pulls the clay against the rotation of the wheel. In addition to shaping the clay, this action aligns the individual clay particles, and increases the strength of the clay. I emphatically recommend against rototilling sand or vermiculite into clay soils. The action of the tiller is like the action of the potter's wheel." "Repeated additions of organic matter do change clay soils, but these additions must be at least annual in order to maintain the changes," Brewer said. "And the soil will remain clay—forever."

 Western Monarch Populations Grew Over 100-fold in 2021. Why? Western monarch populations have declined precipitously since the 1990s, when 3 million to 10 million butterflies migrated annually from the northwestern United States to spend the winter at hundreds of sites along the California coast. Last year, less than 2,000 monarchs were counted in the entire state. Butterfly researchers despaired, since the number was well below the level theorized to lead to collapse and extinction. And they rejoiced when, unexpectedly, the species made a dramatic comeback last year. California’s Xerces Society for Invertebrate Conservationannounced today that with the help of volunteers it counted nearly 250,000 butterflies in 2021, a more than hundredfold increase that society Senior Endangered Species Conservation Biologist Emma Pelton calls “magnificent.” But as Pelton and her colleagues celebrate the news, they’re also asking: Why? Western monarchs depart sites across a broad swath west of the Rockies and head southwest to California. In their winter territory, these butterflies, which usually only live a few weeks, go into a state of suspended development called diapause, which allows them to extend their lives for months. About a third survive this period and go on to mate in late winter, usually February. After that, the females head northeast toward the Sierra Nevada mountains to find milkweed, which will shelter their eggs and feed the resulting caterpillars. Survival of the first-generation—those born after the long winter slog and resulting mating frenzy—is especially important among monarchs, says Crone, since healthy butterflies have more offspring, which then go on to have more offspring. And since a single female monarch can produce four daughters (15 or more in ideal lab conditions), early fortunate events could have far-reaching benefits. Those events might include warm-but-not-too-hot weather, she says, since monarchs function poorly under too-cold and too-hot conditions and milkweed tends to do better than other plants for the first few years of a drought. They also might include the right amount of rainfall at just the right time. Research by Yang and others suggests that monarch caterpillars survive best during windows in early summer and early fall, though it’s unclear exactly why. Earlier in the year, he speculates, butterflies are often ready to lay eggs on milkweed, but that milkweed isn’t ready for their young. This may lead to hungry caterpillars feeding on too-small plants, or less protection from predators. What if, Yang asks, the levels and frequency of rain caused the milkweed to bloom at just the right time or in some other way that made it more accessible to the monarchs? “If it were to increase by twofold or fivefold or tenfold, that would have a big effect on population,” he says. Another possible contributing “fortunate event” could involve larger world trends, Crone suggests. Renowned UC Davis butterfly researcher Art Shapiro has speculated that monarchs have done better during past drought periods because fewer crops planted meant fewer pesticides in the environment. If the short staffing and supply chain issues of the COVID era meant fewer crops were planted, that might also mean less pesticide—and more monarchs.

Ranchers Seek Remedy To Black Vultures In S.C. - South Carolina’s Republican congressional delegation asked the Department of Fish and Wildlife to authorize a depredation order that allows black vultures to be killed under certain circumstances. “Livestock producers in this great state are facing a frustrating issue of predatory vultures, and government should not stand in the way of them protecting their livestock and ultimately, their livelihood,” Rep. Ralph Norman said in a media advisory provided by the Farm Bureau. “I trust USFWS [Fish and Wildlife] will do the right thing and grant a depredation order for this situation in South Carolina.” The Morning News in Florence, S.C., reports that Sens. Lindsey Graham and Tim Scott and Reps. Tom Rice, Nancy Mace, Joe Wilson, Jeff Duncan and William Timmons signed onto the letter from Norman. Black vultures swarm a young calf – calves are not afraid of vultures during their first three weeks of life – and then attack its eyes or tongue in order to send the animal into shock and ultimately kill it so they can eat it. Black vultures can also injure a calf so severely that it has to be put down. At present, cattle ranchers can’t legally protect their calves. In 1918, the United States enacted the Migratory Birds Treaty Act, making it illegal to kill, take or possess a black vulture under penalty of a $15,000 fine and jail time of up to six months. “We have had several reports from different farmers from different locations of black vulture damage,” Van Vlake said. He estimated the loss of a calf would easily be $500. The South Carolina Farm Bureau estimates that cattle produce $133 million of economic activity in the Palmetto State each year. “You got to go through U.S. Fish and Wildlife or you can call the S.C. Department of Natural Resources,” Van Vlake said. “They have been helpful. There have been occasions where I think in other parts of the state where I think they’ve come out and tried to help the farmer from an alleviation standpoint. But from the farmer’s perspective, there’s not really anything they can do other than try to go through Fish and Wildlife and try to get a permit, which historically that has taken weeks.”

Golfing cockatoos reveal ability to use combined tools -- Cockatoos have shown an extraordinary ability to complete a task by combining simple tools, demonstrating that this cognitive ability is not found only in primates.According to researchers at the University of Veterinary Medicine, in Vienna, the University of Birmingham, and the University of Vienna, the findings could shed new light on how our ancestors evolved the ability to design and use tools.The research, published in Scientific Reports, is also part of a wider international and interdisciplinary project comparing children’s innovation and problem solving skills with those of cockatoos. Tool use is rare in animals, and particularly compound tools where two elements are fixed together, such as a spear, or an axe, or composite tools, where two items – for example a stick and a rock – are used together. In their experiment, the team devised a game of golf for one species of bird, the Goffin’s cockatoo, which is known for its problem solving skills and its ability to use single tools such as sticks to open up nut and seed shells.The birds had to manipulate a ball through a hole into a closed box, and then use a stick to push the ball to one side of the box where it triggers a trapdoor mechanism. This in turn releases a cashew nut for the bird.Three of the cockatoos figured out how to use the stick to manoeuvre the ball into the right position to release the treat – showing a high level of tool innovation. Lead researcher Dr Antonio Osuna-Mascaró, from the University of Veterinary Medicine, in Vienna, said: “One of the most amazing aspect of the process was to observe how these animals each invented their own individual technique in how to grip the stick and hit the ball, sometimes with astonishing dexterity. One of the birds operated the stick while holding it between the mandibles, one between the beak tip and tongue and one with his claw, similar to a primate.”

Florida’s beloved manatees are dying in alarming numbers again. Here’s why - The same pressures that killed more than 1,100 Florida manatees last year are at play again this winter, with Florida wildlife officials reporting 97 dead manatees in January alone. Starvation and cold weather are the culprits. Estimates of the total number of manatees in the state range from 5,700 to 7,500.Most deaths have occurred in Indian River Lagoon, an estuary stretching more than 150 miles down the middle of Florida’s east coast. Here, decades of pollution from farm fertilizers and residential developments have killed off vast swaths of seagrass that are manatees’ main food source.Between mid-January when cold weather hit Florida and the end of the month, the number of manatee carcasses that were found tripled, says state veterinarian Martine de Wit, of the Florida Fish and Wildlife Conservation Commission (FWC).Biologists monitoring manatees in warm water refuges “are seeing thin animals, emaciated animals,” says Andy Garrett, the commission’s manatee rescue coordinator.Last November, Patrick Rose, executive director of Save the Manatee Club, warned that this winter could be catastrophic: “Manatees are going to have to make a horrible life or death choice—between dying sooner by having to go out in the cold or staying warm and starving.”In the past, de Wit says, manatees would easily have survived the winter cold snaps. But now, many sea cows, as these gentle herbivorous mammals are also called, have been weakened by successive years of food shortages and are reaching the breaking point. “These animals are compromised,” she says.

Plastic pollution in oceans on track to rise for decades -- Plastic pollution at sea is reaching worrying levels and will continue to grow even if significant action is taken now to stop such waste from reaching the world's oceans, according to a review of hundreds of academic studies. The review by Germany's Alfred Wegener Institute, commissioned by environmental campaign group WWF, examined almost 2,600 research papers on the topic to provide an overview ahead of a United Nations meeting later this month. "We find it in the deepest ocean trenches, at the sea surface and in Arctic sea ice," said biologist Melanie Bergmann who co-authored the study, which was published Tuesday. Some regions—such as the Mediterranean, the East China and Yellow Seas—already contain dangerous levels of plastic, while others risk becoming increasingly polluted in the future, it found. The authors concluded that almost every species in the ocean has been affected by plastic pollution and that it's harming important ecosystems such as coral reefs and mangroves. As plastic breaks down into ever-smaller pieces it also enters the marine food chain, being ingested in everything from whales to turtles to tiny plankton. Getting that plastic out of the water again is nearly impossible, so policymakers should focus on preventing any more of it entering the oceans in the first place, said Bergmann. Plastic pollution in oceans on track to rise for decades A Hawksbill sea turtle, that was found on a nearby beach, is displayed after an autopsy was performed along with trash mostly plastic materials, top, and food items, left, removed from the turtle's stomach, at the Al Hefaiyah Conservation Center lab, in the city of Kalba, on the east coast of the United Arab Emirates, Tuesday, Feb. 1, 2022. A staggering 75% of all dead green turtles and 57% of all loggerhead turtles in Sharjah had eaten marine debris, including plastic bags, bottle caps, rope and fishing nets, a new study published in the Marine Pollution Bulletin. The study seeks to document the damage and danger of the throwaway plastic that has surged in use around the world and in the UAE, along with other marine debris. . A staggering 75% of all dead green turtles and 57% of all loggerhead turtles in Sharjah had eaten marine debris, including plastic bags, bottle caps, rope and fishing nets,

 Australia Declares Koalas an Endangered Species — The Australian government on Friday declared the koala an endangered species, as drought, bush fires, disease and habitat loss have drastically reduced the numbers of an animal that is an emblem of the country’s unique wildlife.The announcement, by the country’s environment minister, came two years after a parliamentary inquiry predicted that koalas could be extinct by 2050 without urgent government intervention.Reclassification from vulnerable to endangered does not require the Australian government to take any special action. But it separately announced that it would adopt a recovery plan for the koala issued by the country’s environmental department.That plan would aid the creation of laws protecting koalas and their natural woodland habitats. Additionally, Prime Minister Scott Morrison announced last month that the government would commit 50 million Australian dollars ($35.7 million) over four years to koala recovery and conservation efforts.The plight of the koala gained global attention in 2019 when bush fires raged over millions of acres in Australia, blackening the animal’s habitats. A report commissioned by the World Wildlife Fund-Australia estimated that 60,000 koalas had been “killed, injured or affected in some way.”In response, the Australian government committed 18 million Australian dollars ($12.8 million) to be split between restoring the koala’s habitats and investing in koala health research.In 2020, W.W.F.-Australia, the International Fund for Animal Welfare and the Humane Society International collectively nominated the animal for listing as an endangered species. The groups found that koala populations in the states of Queensland and New South Wales had decreased by 50 percent or more since 2001. It’s unclear how many koalas remain. Efforts to count the animals, which are continuing, have proven extremely difficult.

Deadly US Northwest heat prompts legislation aimed at relief - The historic heat wave killed at least 200 people in Oregon and Washington. Now, lawmakers in the Pacific Northwest are eyeing several emergency heat relief bills aimed at helping vulnerable people. The measures would provide millions in funding for cooling systems and weather shelters during future extreme weather events. Three consecutive days of extraordinary temperatures in the region sent public health officials scrambling between June 25 and June 28. Temperatures in Portland reached triple digits for three days, peaking at 116 F (46.7 C). In Seattle, temperatures reached a record of 108 F (42 C). An initial scientific analysis by World Weather Attribution found that the deadly heat wave would have been virtually impossible without human-caused climate change that added a few extra degrees to the record-smashing temperatures. Nationwide, about 91% of U.S. homes have primary air conditioning installed, according to data from the U.S. Census Bureau's 2019 American Housing Survey. By comparison, that figure was 78% for Portland and just 44% for Seattle. "Most people who passed away had no access to lifesaving cooling devices such as air conditioning or heating and cooling pumps in their homes," The first of Oregon's two proposed heat relief bills, both of which have received bipartisan support, would direct $5 million to the Oregon Health Authority to create an emergency distribution program that would deliver air conditioners and air filters to low-income families. It would also allocate $10 million to create an incentive program to make it easier for vulnerable households to purchase energy-efficient heat pump cooling systems. In addition, the bill directs the Oregon Public Utility Commission to find ways of "alleviating spikes" in energy bills during extreme weather events. During the heat wave, hospital emergency department visits for heat illness surged to more than 30 times above normal levels in Multnomah County—home to Portland. Despite this, county officials received reports of residents who opted not to operate air conditioning units due to worry about the additional cost. Oregon's second heat relief bill would remove barriers for renters to install portable air conditioning units in their apartments and would require cooling systems in newly constructed rental units. The bill would also allocate $2 million for local and tribal government to create extreme weather relief centers. Lawmakers in two other states have also passed bills focused on expanding and opening cooling shelters in the past three years. In 2019, California lawmakers passed a bill that allows the adjutant general to utilize vacant armories as temporary cooling shelters for homeless people. In 2021, lawmakers in Illinois passed a measure calling for space to be set aside in communities for use as cooling shelters in extreme heat emergencies.

‘Dangerously hot conditions’ prompt rare February heat alert in Los Angeles National Weather Service warns that Super Bowl visitors from other states may be at risk for heat-related illnesses.We may be in the heart of winter, but that isn’t stopping the atmosphere from cooking up some extreme heat for parts of the West Coast. Multiple National Weather Service offices in California have opted to issue excessive heat watches ahead of climbing temperatures beginning Wednesday, an unusual measure that may be a first of its kind for February.The Weather Service warns of “dangerously hot conditions with temperatures up to 90 degrees possible,” noting that visitors from other states unaccustomed to the toasty weather may be at a greater risk for heat-related illnesses. The Super Bowl is Sunday at SoFi Stadium in Inglewood, Calif., with the Cincinnati Bengals facing the Los Angeles Rams.Excessive-heat watches are issued when “extremely dangerous” heat appears likely within one to three days, according to the Weather Service. Sixteen million people reside within the alert areas.Southern California is no stranger to hot weather — Los Angeles averages five days annually that hit 90 degrees or higher — but such temperatures are particularly unusual at this time of year. In fact, the city has recorded only seven 90-degree days during the winter months of December, January or February since 1948. That last time it happened was Jan. 31, 2003, when the high was 91 degrees.The excessive-heat watch covers coastal Orange, Riverside and San Bernardino counties, as well as the interior valleys. The San Gabriel and San Fernando valleys are included in the watch, as is downtown Los Angeles. Burbank, Anaheim, Santa Ana and Newport Beach are all within the watch area.It’s the first time since at least 2006, when software began tabulating weather alert issuance, that an excessive-heat watch has been hoisted during February in Southern California. In fact, all other excessive-heat watches issued by the Weather Service office in Los Angeles have fallen between May and October; for the San Diego office, between April and October.The setup isn’t exactly a classic one for extreme heat in Southern California, but it does meet the requirements for warming offshore flow. Multiple areas of high pressure are banked to the north, one in southern British Columbia and the other over Saskatchewan and Manitoba. That, coupled with weak low pressure draped across the southern United States, will funnel air westward over the Sierra Nevada.As air slides downhill into the lowlands and the Inland Empire and deserts of Southern California, it will undergo a process called adiabatic compression — greater air pressure near sea level will squeeze and compress the air, which induces a warming and drying. By the time parcels of air make it to Los Angeles between Wednesday and Friday, they’ll be sitting in the upper 80s to near 90 degrees.

The fastest population growth in the West's wildland fringes is in ecosystems most vulnerable to wildfires--The view from the foothills of the Sierra Nevada in Southern California can be beautiful—pine forests and chaparral spill across an often rugged landscape. But as more people build homes in this area, where development gets into wild land, they're facing some of the highest risks for wildfires in the country.The type of trees, plants and grasses at any location will influence how likely the area is to burn. However, our new research shows that some areas of the wildland-urban interface—the land where development ends and wilderness begins—are at much higher risk of burning than others. A key reason is how vulnerable the local vegetation is to drying out in a warming climate.In a study published Feb. 7, 2022, our team of climate scientists, fire scientists and eco-hydrologists mapped out where vegetation is creating the highest fire risks across the western U.S. We then compared that map to where in the region people have been moving into the wildland-urban interface. We were surprised to discover that the fastest rate ofpopulation growth by far has been in the areas with the highest fire risk. This includes several areas in California, Oregon, Washington and Texas.When a fire does break out, the amount of area that burns increases significantly if a region's vegetation is drought sensitive, meaning it dries up easily after periods of little rainfall and hot temperatures.Just as a succulent is better at surviving a water shortage than, say, a citrus tree, some vegetation loses moisture more quickly in dry conditions. Such diverse sensitivity can have a strong effect on wildfires. In fact, we found that under the same increase in droughtlike conditions, burned area increases twice as much in the most sensitive regions as the least sensitive regions. As a result, fire hazard in regions like southern California, eastern Oregon, and central Arizona has far outstripped the average. But what about human exposure to wildfires? We found that while the number of people living in the wildland-urban interface overall roughly doubled from 1990 to 2010, the population in its highest-hazard regions grew by 160%. As more people move into these areas, the opportunity for fires to ignite rises, as does the number of people at risk.

Researchers identify 'double-hazard' zones for wildfire in the West --Some plants and patches of Earth withstand heat and dry spells better than others. A new Stanford University study shows those different coping mechanisms are closely linked to wildfire burn areas, posing increasing risks in an era of climate change. The results, published Feb. 7 in Nature Ecology and Evolution, show swaths of forest and shrublands in most Western states likely face greater fire risks than previously predicted because of the way local ecosystems use water. Under the same parched conditions, more acreage tends to burn in these zones because of differences in at least a dozen plant and soil traits. The study's authors set out to test an often-repeated hypothesis that climate change is increasing wildfire hazard uniformly in the West. "I asked, is that true everywhere, all the time, for all the different kinds of vegetation? Our research shows it is not," said lead author Krishna Rao, a Ph.D. student in Earth system science. The study arrives as the Biden administration prepares to launch a 10-year, multibillion-dollar effort to expand forest thinning and prescribed burns in 11 Western states. Previous research has shown that climate change is driving up what scientists call the vapor pressure deficit, which is an indicator of how much moisture the air can suck out of soil and plants. Vapor pressure deficit has increased over the past 40 years across most of the American West, largely because warmer air can hold more water. This is a primary mechanism by which global warming is elevating wildfire hazards. The new analysis, which comes from the lab of Stanford ecohydrologist Alexandra Konings, suggests vapor pressure deficit is rising fastest in areas where plants are especially prone to drying out. The combination of highly sensitive, tinder-dry plants and a faster-than-average increase in atmospheric dryness creates what the authors call "double-hazard" zones. The 18 newly identified double-hazard zones lie within regions that have seen a disproportionately rapid rise in burn area with every uptick in vapor pressure deficit over the past two decades. Ranging in size from a few hundred to nearly 50,000 square miles, they're concentrated in eastern Oregon, Nevada's Great Basin, central Arizona's Mogollon Rim and California's southern Sierra Nevada, where recent wildfires have destroyed thousands of giant sequoia trees that had survived fires for hundreds of years.

Memphis ice storm: Thousands remain without power, community lends a hand --Cameron LaBonia's Germantown home still did not have power Monday morning. It marked day No. 5 of no power. "My parents stayed in the house for three days and laid by the fireplace and then it was too cold to bear so they got a hotel room for $140, but our pets are still in the house," LaBonia said. Unfortunately, the freezing temperatures became too much for one of the pets, and LaBonia's sister's hedgehog died from the cold. The family dog and cat are still weathering the cold until LaBonia can find an affordable solution. "My parents have been going to the house day and night to keep a fire going for them (the pets)," she said. "We’re also worried because our Ring and home security system is down so anyone can just break into our house undetected." LaBonia and her family booked a hotel Saturday night to get out of the cold and have been there since, but it was not their first option. "We tried to get an indoor kerosene heater, but they’re sold out in (Tennessee) and (Mississippi)," she said. She posted Sunday in a Collierville Facebook group asking if anyone had a heater, but no luck. LaBonia was one of more than 62,500 Memphis Light, Gas and Water customers without power as of Monday afternoon. By Tuesday afternoon, that number was about 50,000. A Thursday ice storm — part of Winter Storm Landon — knocked out power for thousands across Shelby County, and MLGW crews were still working this week to get power back up and running for everyone. Over the course of the storm, more than 241,260 customers were impacted by the power outage, according to an MLGW news release. Residents without power either flocked to hotels, friends' houses or waited out the cold.

'Daunting And Complex' System A Barrier To Disaster Relief: -The system through which localities must apply for relief funding after a disaster like a hurricane or flooding often stands in the way of low-income communities and communities of color from receiving the aid they deserve and need, E&E reports. “It’s a really daunting and complex program,” Amelia Muccio, director of mitigation at Hagerty Consulting Inc., an emergency management firm, told E&E. “There is a barrier to entry.” The Biden administration said it would double funding for climate pre-mitigation and relief, but the barrier to receiving those funds still poses a real problem for communities that lack the staff and expertise, or money to hire a consultant, needed to navigate the competitive post-disaster application system. “There are a lot of areas that are communities of color or low-income communities that are very much threatened by climate change,” Adam Gordon, executive director of Fair Share Housing Center in New Jersey, told E&E. “Many are neighborhoods in cities or suburban areas or larger rural communities.” (E&E $)

Most Great Lakes won't approach record highs in next six months, report finds - Most of the Great Lakes will remain above their long-term average water levels in the coming months but won't reach the record highs of recent years, Army Corps of Engineers hydrologists said in their latest forecast. "We're well below the record high levels we experienced in 2019 and 2020," Detroit District Great Lakes Watershed Hydrology Chief Keith Kompoltowicz said. "And our forecast does not show the likelihood of any of the lakes really approaching those record highs again over the next six months." The Detroit District released its latest monthly lake level bulletin Friday. Hydrologists reviewed January lake levels and weather patterns and projected a range of possible water levels for each lake over the next six months. All of the Great Lakes declined somewhat in January, hydrologists found. The region experienced less precipitation than usual that month. Drier than average weather, particularly in 2021, has caused lake levels to decline from their record highs, Kompoltowicz said. The area around Lake Superior has been particularly dry, pushing the northerly lake below its average water levels. It likely will remain below average in the next six months, hydrologists found. "We've see very dry and even extremely dry over the Lake Superior basin, while the other lakes have been closer to average but still dry weather," he said. Conversely, Lake Ontario could reach close to record high levels in the coming months, hydrologists found. Its watershed has experienced wetter weather conditions than other parts of the region, Kompoltowicz said. Lakes Michigan and Huron, technically one lake, and Lake Erie will continue to get closer to their long-term average water level this year, hydrologists found. They will trend away from the high water records set in 2019 and 2020. The snow storm that swept through the Midwest last week wasn't strong enough to fuel an increase, said Andrew Gronewold, a hydrologist and associate professor of ecosystem science at the University of Michigan. "It's really hard to look at any one event, like the one we just had, and map it onto a noticeable long-term change in water levels," he said.

The Great Amazon Land Grab – How Brazil’s Government Is Turning Public Land Private, Clearing the Way for Deforestation -- Imagine that several state legislators decide that Yellowstone National Park is too big. Also imagine that, working with federal politicians, they change the law to downsize the park by a million acres, which they sell in a private auction. Unheard of? No. It happens routinely and with increasing frequency in the Brazilian Amazon. The most widely publicized threat to the Amazonian rainforest is deforestation. Less well understood is that public lands are being converted to private holdings in a land grab we’ve beenstudying for the past decade. Much of this land is cleared for cattle ranches and soybean farms, threatening biodiversity and the Earth’s climate. Prior research has quantified how much public land has been grabbed, but only for one type of public land called “undesignated public forests.”Our research provides a complete account across all classes of public land. We looked at Amazonia’s most active deforestation frontier, southern Amazonas State, starting in 2012 as rates of deforestation began to increase because of loosened regulatory oversight. Our research shows how land grabs are tied to accelerating deforestation spearheaded by wealthy interests, and how Brazil’s National Congress, by changing laws, is legitimizing these land grabs. Brazil’s modern land grab started in the 1970s, when the military government began offering free land to encourage mining industries and farmers to move in, arguing that national security depended on developing the region. It took lands that had been under state jurisdictions since colonial times and allocated them to rural settlement, granting 150- to 250-acre holdings to poor farmers. Federal and state governments ultimately designated over 65% of Amazonia to several public interests, including rural settlement. For biodiversity, they created conservation units, some allowing traditional resource use and subsistence agriculture. Leftover government lands are generally referred to as “vacant or undesignated public lands.”Studies have estimated that by 2020, 32% of “undesignated public forests” had been grabbed for private use. But this is only part of the story, because land grabbing is now affecting many types of public land.Importantly, land grabs now impact conservation areas and indigenous territories, where private holdings are forbidden.We compared the boundaries of self-declared private holdings in the government’s Rural Environmental Registry database, known as CAR, with the boundaries of all public lands in southern Amazonas State. The region has 50,309 square miles in conservation units. Of these, we found that 10,425 square miles, 21%, have been “grabbed,” or declared in the CAR register as private between 2014 and 2020.In the United States, this would be like having 21% of the national parks disappear into private property.Our measurement is probably an underestimate, given that not all grabbed lands are registered. Some land grabbers now use CAR to establish claims that could become legal with changes in the law.

 13 million face hunger as Horn of Africa drought worsens: UN - An estimated 13 million people in Kenya, Somalia and Ethiopia are facing severe hunger as the Horn of Africa experiences its worst drought in decades, the World Food Programme (WFP) said Tuesday. Three consecutive rainy seasons have failed as the region has recorded its driest conditions since 1981, the UN agency said. The drought has destroyed crops and inflicted "abnormally" high livestock deaths, forcing rural families who rely on herding and farming to abandon their homes. Water and grazing land is in short supply and forecasts of below-average rainfall in coming months only threaten more misery, said Michael Dunford, WFP's regional director in East Africa. "Harvests are ruined, livestock are dying, and hunger is growing as recurrent droughts affect the Horn of Africa," he said in a statement. "The situation requires immediate humanitarian action" to avoid a repeat of a crisis like that of Somalia in 2011, when 250,000 died of hunger during a prolonged drought. Food aid is being distributed across an arid swathe of Kenya, Ethiopia and Somalia where malnutrition rates are high and some 13 million people are at risk of severe hunger in the first quarter of this year. In Somalia, the number of people classified as seriously hungry is expected to rise from 3.5 million to 4.6 million by May unless urgent interventions are taken. Another 2.8 million people need assistance in south-eastern and northern Kenya, where a drought emergency was declared in September. WFP said $327 million was required to respond to immediate needs over the next six months and support pastoral communities to become more resilient against recurring climate shocks. In 2011, failed rains led to the driest year since 1951 in arid regions of Kenya, Somalia, Ethiopia, Djibouti and Uganda. Experts say extreme weather events are happening with increased frequency and intensity due to climate change—with Africa, which contributes the least to global warming, bearing the brunt.

Record-shattering heavy snow hits parts of Japan -Heavy snow has been falling over Japan over the weekend, with some areas receiving record-breaking amounts. The Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) said the snow was brought by a wintry pressure pattern combined with cold air mass. All-time 24-hour snowfall records were broken in Maibara City, Chiga Prefecture where 62 cm (24.4 inches) were recorded, and Sapporo City, Hokkaido with 60 cm (23.6 inches). Both figures are the highest since comparable data became available in 2001 for Maibara and in 1999 for Sapporo.1 Total snow depth in Sapporo reached 133 cm (52.3 inches) on Sunday, February 6, 2022. The city's all-time record is 169 cm (66 inches) registered on February 13, 1939. All trains to and from JR Sapporo Station have been suspended on Monday. Sekigahara recorded 98 cm (38.6 inches) in 48 hours, also a record-breaking amount. Image credit: NASA Aqua/MODIS. Acquired on February 7, 2022 The total accumulation through 19:00 LT on Sunday, February 6 reached 3.54 m (139.4 inches) in Niigata's Tsunan Town and 2.71 m (106.7 inches) in Nagano's Nozawaonsen Village. Both figures are the most for the municipalities in the past several years. JMA warned people living in snowy locations to be on the alert for possible power outages, avalanches and other snow-related accidents. Many areas in Japan have received greater-than-average amounts of snow this winter, NHK reports.

More than 100 avalanches hit Austria, claiming the lives of at least 9 people -At least 9 people have died in Austria after more than 100 avalanches struck the country in just three days. Authorities described the situation as unprecedented and warned more avalanches can be expected in the days ahead. Most of the avalanches hit the country's western region of Tyrol where 5 people died on Friday, February 5, 2022. According to police reports, one incident claimed the lives of 4 Swedish skiers going off-piste with their mountain guide in the zone around Ischgl. 1 Only one member of the group of 6 survived.1 A 60-year-old man and his 61-year-old wife were engulfed while cross-country skiing near the village of Auffach on Friday, while on Saturday, an Austrian man, aged 58, died at Schirmn after an avalanche hit a group of people. Further west, an experienced skier of 43 was killed in the popular Vorarlberg region as Austria saw exceptional quantities of snowfall going into and across the weekend. "The past three days have seen some 100 avalanche-type incidents requiring 70 interventions," Tyrol regional authorities said Sunday, dubbing the situation "unprecedented" and warning of more to come.

Mountain glaciers may have less ice than previously estimated, straining freshwater supply - Glaciers in the Andes shouldn’t be free of snow so early this time of year, but some are now bare.Warm conditions in January, including a scorching heat wave with temperatures exceeding 100 degrees Fahrenheit in some locations, melted almost all snow cover on some of Chile’s Olivares Glaciers andVolcan Overo in Argentina. With around eight weeks left in the melt season, the exposed glacial ice could disappear faster now without a blanket of snow.“We’re seeing snow-free glaciers at unusual times, and that means midsummer in the Andes,” . “Those are all related to just high temperatures.”As global temperatures rise, mountain glaciers around the world are sweating. This could affect nearly1.9 billion people living in and downstream of mountainous areas who depend on melting ice and snow for drinking, agriculture and hydroelectric power. In the tropical Andes, for instance, glaciers provide almost one-third of the water that millions of people in major cities use during the dry season. A study published Monday in the journal Nature Geoscience shows the decline could be more calamitous than previously thought. Earth’s mountain glaciers may have less ice than previously estimated, meaning they could be tapped dry sooner than expected, especially as climate change hastens their melt.The researchers also found the potential sea level rise contribution from the glaciers would decrease by about 20 percent from 13 to 10 inches. But since mountain glaciers contribute around only one-third of global sea level rise, this has only a modest impact on future projections. “This study is not good news because we have less freshwater for people if we have less ice,”. “For sea level rise, it does not change anything to the big picture” because “Greenland and Antarctica are the major drivers of sea level rise.”

Extreme rainfall and more wet days will hamper global economy, study says - Climate affects the "economic growth story" and requires a response at the local, regional and international level, a climate scientist has told CNBC's "Squawk Box Europe". Anders Levermann, who is head of the complexity science research department at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, was speaking after a recent study published in the journal Nature found economic growth falls when the amount of "wet days and days with extreme rainfall" increases. Scientists at PIK looked at data from over 1,500 regions between 1979 and 2019. In a statement last month, PIK said the analysis suggested that "intensified daily rainfall driven by climate-change from burning oil and coal will harm the global economy." The peer-reviewed study was led by Leonie Wenz, from PIK and the Mercator Research Institute on Global Commons and Climate Change. "Economies across the world are slowed down by more wet days and extreme daily rainfall — an important insight that adds to our growing understanding of the true costs of climate change," she said. "While more annual rainfall is generally good for economies, especially agriculturally dependent ones, the question is also how the rain is distributed across the days of the year," she added. "Intensified daily rainfall turns out to be bad, especially for wealthy, industrialized countries like the US, Japan, or Germany," Wenz said. PIK highlighted both the service and manufacturing sectors as being particularly affected. Challenges related to excessive, heavy rain look to be here for the foreseeable future. According to the U.K.'s national meteorological service, the Met Office, as "global temperatures rise, the number of extreme rainfall days is expected to increase." Last summer, for example, heavy rain led to severe flooding in a number of European countries, causing deaths as well as significant damage to buildings and infrastructure. In response to what it called "catastrophic flooding and heavy rain", Germany's federal government said it would provide as much as 30 billion euros (around $34.3 billion) to assist parts of the country affected by the flooding.

Intense Tropical Cyclone "Batsirai" hits Madagascar, destroying entire villages - Tropical Cyclone "Batsirai" made landfall between Nosy-Varika and Mananjary on the east coast of Madagascar around 17:00 UTC on February 5, 2022. At the time of landfall, Batsiari was Category 3 hurricane equivalent on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale with minimum central pressure of 944 hPa. While damage assessment is still in progress, Batsirai's destructive winds and heavy rain devastated the landfall area, destroying homes, causing power outages and leaving at least 6 people dead. However, officials fear the number will rise in the days ahead. The village of Nosy-Varika was reported to be 95% destroyed. Other nearby villages appear to have suffered the same fate. Tropical Cyclone "Batsirai" making landfall over Madagascar on February 5, 2022. Credit: EUMETSAT/Meteosat-11, RAMMB/CIRA, TW "The winds are terrible. I've never experienced this. Mananjary has never experienced such a situation. The waves are very high," Hanitra Raharisoa, a resident of Mananjary, told Reuters by phone.1 Another resident who gave only one name, Raharijaona, told Reuters also by phone the storm had knocked out the area's power grid, felled trees and destroyed some homes. At 12:00 UTC on February 6, Batsiari was an overland depression located approximately 437 km (272 miles) east of Europa Island. Maximum 10-minute sustained winds are at 65 km/h (40 mph), with gusts up to 95 km/h (60 mph), while maximum 1-minute sustained winds are at 95 km/h (60 mph). The minimum central barometric pressure was 990 hPa and the system was moving southwest at 24 km/h (15 mph). After exiting into the Mozambique Channel, Batsirai is expected to turn S and dissipate.

 Tropical Cyclone "Batsiari" death toll rises to 111, Madagascar - The number of casualties caused by the passage of Intense Tropical Cyclone "Batsiari" over Madagascar rose to 111 on Friday, February 11, 2022. Batsirai made landfall just north of the city of Mananjary, Vatovavy region on February 5, with wind speeds of 165 km/h (102 mph) and gusts up to 230 km/h (143 mph). This is the second named storm of the 2021/22 Southwest Indian Ocean cyclone season and the second to move over the country within just 2 weeks. Of 111 casualties, 87 died in Ikongo district on the east coast of the country.1 More than 62 000 individuals have been displaced in more than 100 shelters, and more than 116 000 affected by the disaster, according to the Office of Risks and Disasters (BNGRC). Severe damage has been reported to infrastructure and buildings, including schools and health centers. The cyclone destroyed about 3 000 dwellings and government buildings and flooded 5 700 others in Mananjary and nearby towns, officials said.More than 17 000 houses, 2 000 classrooms and 59 health centers have been destroyed, damaged or flooded across the country. Current analysis mentions 8 200 homes destroyed and 2 700 damaged. Batsirai struck the island less than two weeks after prolonged heavy rains brought by Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) and Tropical Storm "Ana" left 55 people dead. Ana was still a tropical depression when it moved over Madagascar on January 22, further exacerbating severe floods caused by ITCZ since January 17. In the capital Antananarivo, this severe rainfall event dumped several months' worth of rain. January is the wettest month in the capital, with a monthly average of 340 mm (13.39 inches).2 Ana made landfall over Mozambique on January 24, and continued moving west over Malawi while weakening and dissipating, but still dumping very heavy rain. It's blamed for the deaths of at least 70 people in Mozambique, Malawi and Madagascar. At one point, entire Malawi was without power.3

Only 15 per cent of global coastal regions remain intact -New research has revealed that only 15 percent of coastal areas around the world remain intact, exposing the need for urgent coastal rehabilitation and conservation on a global scale. The University of Queensland-led international study mapped the impact of human-caused pressures on coastal regions to identify those that are already highly degraded, and those that remain intact. Brooke Williams, from UQ's School of Earth and Environmental Sciences, said the findings, which have been compiled into a free and useable dataset, provide valuable insights into humanity's widespread impacts on Earth's precious coastal ecosystems. "Coastal regions contain high levels of biodiversity and are relied upon by millions of people for ecosystem services such as food and storm protection," Ms Williams said. "Our results show that we need to act quickly and decisively if we hope to conserve those coastal regions that remain intact, and restore those that are heavily degraded, especially if we're going to mitigate the effects of climate change. "The rate at which these regions are degrading poses massive threats to not only coastal species and habitats, but also to the health, safety and economic security of countless people who live or rely on coastal regions around the world." The research team discovered that, of the 15.5 percent of coastal areas that remain intact as of 2013, Canada was responsible for the largest expanse of coastal region that stood intact. "Other large expanses are located in Russia, Greenland, Chile, Australia, and the United States," Ms Williams said. "Coastal regions containing seagrasses, savannah, and coral reefs had the highest levels of human pressure compared to other coastal ecosystems."

Oregon bill tackles megaquake 'nightmare': Fuel storage site - Scientists say Oregon faces a potential nightmare scenario unless work is done to fortify its main fuel storage facility against a major earthquake, which will come sooner or later. More than 90% of the state's liquid fuels are stored at the Critical Energy Infrastructure Hub, along a 6-mile (10-kilometer) stretch of the Willamette River in northwest Portland. This week, Oregon lawmakers began taking steps to compel the owners and operators of the facility's aging storage tanks to make them earthquake resistant. A new report commissioned by the city of Portland and Multnomah County noted the hub is built on soils subject to liquefaction in an earthquake, meaning the water-saturated sediment would temporarily lose strength and act as a fluid. The industrial area contains 46 large above-ground fuel tanks, a liquefied natural gas storage facility and pipelines, according to a state report. Some fuel tanks are more than 100 years old, and most were built at least 50 years ago. The study estimated that a major earthquake along the Cascadia subduction zone would result in 95 million to 194 million gallons (432 million to 882 million liters) of fuels gushing from the tanks. The spill would flow from the Willamette River into the nearby Columbia River and, unless it is contained, would reach the Pacific Ocean, about 100 miles (160 kilometers) to the northwest. The predicted damage is on a par with the greatest environmental disaster in U.S. history, when BP's Deepwater Horizon drilling rig exploded in 2010, spilling at least 134 million gallons (609 million liters) of oil into the Gulf of Mexico. "The fuel releases are likely to cause explosions and fires," the Oregon researchers wrote. "If the fire spreads to other properties there are very large threats to human life, safety, physical structures and natural resources." California is known for earthquakes, especially along the San Andreas Fault. But experts predict one of the world's biggest earthquakes could occur any day along the Cascadia subduction zone, which runs from offshore Northern California, Oregon and Washington state to Canada. The last time a major Cascadia earthquake occurred was in 1700, with an estimated at magnitude 9.

Large volcanic ash eruption at Sangay volcano, Ecuador - (satellites, graphics video) A large volcanic ash eruption started at Sangay volcano, Ecuador at around 08:20 UTC on February 8, 2022. The eruption is similar to what was observed during the greatest activity of the current eruptive period.According to the Washington VAAC, ash column was observed rising up to 9.1 km (30 000 feet) above sea level and extending approximately 55 km (34 miles) NW from the summit at 09:00 UTC.¹At this time, there is no seismicity data due to transmission problems with the station at the volcano. While only light rains were recorded in the sector recently, lahars could form at the volcano in case of heavy rains.Ashfall is expected in areas W and NW of the volcano, in the provinces of Chimborazo, Bolívar, Los Ríos and Guayas. Ecuador's Geophysical Institute is urging residents living in the affected region to take the pertinent measures and follow information coming from official sources.A strong SO₂ signal at a distance of 13.7 km (8.5 miles) from the volcano was detected by TROPOMI on February 6. The estimated mass within 300 km (186 miles) was 1.5 ktons. The following image of Sangay volcano was captured by IG's webcam on February 6: A major explosive eruption took place at Sangay at 09:03 UTC on December 2, 2021. The Washington VAAC estimated volcanic ash rising up to possibly 15.2 km (50 000 feet) above sea level.²

Geomagnetic Storm Dooms 40 Starlink Internet Satellites - Elon Musk's satellite internet service Starlink experienced a devastating space-weather impact last Friday when a geomagnetic storm forced "dozens" of newly launched low Earth orbit (LEO) satellites into "safe-mode" where they experienced "deorbiting" and will or already have crashed back to Earth, according to a SpaceX blog post. "Unfortunately, the satellites deployed on Thursday were significantly impacted by a geomagnetic storm on Friday. These storms cause the atmosphere to warm and atmospheric density at our low deployment altitudes to increase. In fact, onboard GPS suggests the escalation speed and severity of the storm caused atmospheric drag to increase up to 50 percent higher than during previous launches. The Starlink team commanded the satellites into a safe-mode where they would fly edge-on (like a sheet of paper) to minimize drag—to effectively "take cover from the storm"—and continued to work closely with the Space Force's 18th Space Control Squadron and LeoLabs to provide updates on the satellites based on ground radars.Preliminary analysis show the increased drag at the low altitudes prevented the satellites from leaving safe-mode to begin orbit raising maneuvers, and up to 40 of the satellites will reenter or already have reentered the Earth's atmosphere," the blog post said. SpaceX said the "deorbiting satellites pose zero collision risk" with other satellites and are designed to burn up in the atmosphere upon "reentry" to mitigate satellite parts from striking objects on the ground. After last week's launch, it's expected that up to 40 of the 49 LEO satellites will be lost. The image below is the satellites aboard a SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket before being detached in LEO. SpaceWeather shows the strength of the geomagnetic storm last Friday. Possible reentries of the satellites were caught on camera over Puerto Rico late last week. The purpose of the satellites was initially to help with Musk's Starlink project, which aims to give internet from space to people in rural communities. There was no mention if the loss would affect future service for customers at certain latitudes. Jacob Geer, the UK Space Agency's Head of Space Surveillance, said: "Events like this are a reminder that space is challenging - getting satellites or astronauts into orbit is still not easy." Starlink could experience more space weather events during future launches as Sunspot Cycle 25 began in 2H20. This current cycle is expected to be super active and may pose a risk to satellites.

40 SpaceX Starlink satellites lost after geomagnetic storm hits Earth -- A geomagnetic storm affecting Earth on Friday, February 4, 2022, significantly impacted 40 of 49 SpaceX Starlink satellites launched to low Earth orbit from Launch Complex 39A (LC-39A) at Kennedy Space Center in Florida on February 3. Preliminary analysis shows up to 40 launched satellites will reenter or already have reentered the Earth’s atmosphere. According to SpaceX, Falcon 9’s second stage deployed the satellites into their intended orbit, with a perigee of approximately 210 km (130 miles) above Earth, and each satellite achieved controlled flight. SpaceX deploys its satellites into these lower orbits so that in the very rare case any satellite does not pass initial system checkouts it will quickly be deorbited by atmospheric drag. Unfortunately, the satellites were significantly impacted by a geomagnetic storm on Friday. "These storms cause the atmosphere to warm and atmospheric density at our low deployment altitudes to increase. In fact, onboard GPS suggests the escalation speed and severity of the storm caused atmospheric drag to increase up to 50% higher than during previous launches," the company said. The Starlink team commanded the satellites into a safe-mode where they would fly edge-on (like a sheet of paper) to minimize drag - to effectively 'take cover from the storm' - and continued to work closely with the Space Force’s 18th Space Control Squadron and LeoLabs to provide updates on the satellites based on ground radars. Their preliminary analysis shows the increased drag at the low altitudes prevented the satellites from leaving safe-mode to begin orbit raising maneuvers, and up to 40 of the 49 launched websites satellites will reenter or already have reentered the Earth’s atmosphere. "The deorbiting satellites pose zero collision risk with other satellites and by design demise upon atmospheric reentry - meaning no orbital debris is created and no satellite parts hit the ground."

Why renewed solar storms threaten to destroy more satellites after Elon Musk's Starlink - The sun has been hibernating – but it's waking up, and the next few years may see more satellites damaged or destroyed by solar storms than ever before. Elon Musk's SpaceX is feeling the pinch of that solar threat this week: The company expects to lose nearly a full launch's worth of Starlink internet satellites after a geomagnetic storm disrupted the Earth's atmosphere and sent about 40 of the spacecraft to an early, fiery demise.But these storms are not uncommon, space weather experts explained to CNBC, and are only expected to worsen over the next few years. The sun started a new 11-year solar cycle in December 2019 and is now ramping to a "solar maximum" that is expected to hit in 2025. SpaceX is a leader in rocket launches, but Starlink is its golden ticket"The reason why [solar storms have] not been a big deal is because, for the past three to four years, we've been at what we call 'solar minimum,'" Aerospace Corp research scientist Tamitha Skov told CNBC.Notably, the recent solar minimum coincides with a massive spike in the number of satellites in low Earth orbit. About 4,000 small satellites have been launched in the past four years, according to analysis by Bryce Tech – with the vast majority of those operating in low orbits. "A lot of these commercial ventures ... don't understand how significantly space weather can affect satellites, especially these small satellites," Skov said.

Thawing permafrost could expose Arctic populations to cancer-causing radon - According to a new study, thawing of permafrost due to climate change could expose the Arctic population to much greater concentrations of the invisible, lung cancer-causing gas radon. Professor Paul Glover from the University of Leeds and his co-author suggest that permafrost has historically acted as a protective barrier, blocking radon from traveling to the surface and entering buildings there. Radon is an invisible, odorless, naturally occurring radioactive gas. It causes approximately one in 10 lung cancer deaths and affects smokers much more than non-smokers. It causes higher death rates in sub-Arctic communities due to the prevalence of smoking. Their study, published today in the AGU journal Earth's Future, modeled radon production, its flow through soil, permafrost and model buildings—including those with sub-surface and surface basements and those built, more traditionally, on piles. They show that in buildings with basements, the presence of radon gas can increase to more than 100 times its initial value for up to seven years, depending on the depth of the permafrost and how fast the permafrost thaws. This demonstrates the importance of not only keeping the permafrost layer intact by limiting global warming, but also has significant implications for health provision, building codes and ventilation advice. The presence of a permafrost layer was found to act as a radon barrier, reducing surface radiation to a tenth of the background level, but increasing radon concentration behind the barrier by to up to 12 times. This was the case for a wide range of depths to the permafrost layer. Professor Glover, from the School of Earth and Environment at Leeds, said, "Radon is known to be the second most important cause of lung cancer after smoking. Smoking also exacerbates radon-acquired lung cancer rates by about 26 times, and smoking is up to 4.4 times more prevalent in Arctic communities. "Consequently, an unexpected plume of radon could represent a dangerous health hazard if it is not planned for. Fortunately, simply-installed ventilation is all that is often required if the problem is recognized. "If the permafrost were stable, there would be no cause to be concerned. However, it is now widely recognized that climate change is leading to significant thawing of permafrost, with a 42% expected loss of permafrost in the Arctic Circumpolar Permafrost Region (ACPR) by 2050.

Climate Scientists Encounter Limits of Computer Models, Bedeviling Policy – WSJ —For almost five years, an international consortium of scientists was chasing clouds, determined to solve a problem that bedeviled climate-change forecasts for a generation: How do these wisps of water vapor affect global warming? They reworked 2.1 million lines of supercomputer code used to explore the future of climate change, adding more-intricate equations for clouds and hundreds of other improvements. They tested the equations, debugged them and tested again. The scientists would find that even the best tools at hand can’t model climates with the sureness the world needs as rising temperatures impact almost every region. When they ran the updated simulation in 2018, the conclusion jolted them: Earth’s atmosphere was much more sensitive to greenhouse gases than decades of previous models had predicted, and future temperatures could be much higher than feared—perhaps even beyond hope of practical remedy.“We thought this was really strange,” said Gokhan Danabasoglu, chief scientist for the climate-model project at the Mesa Laboratory in Boulder at the National Center for Atmospheric Research, or NCAR. “If that number was correct, that was really bad news.” At least 20 older, simpler global-climate models disagreed with the new one at NCAR, an open-source model called the Community Earth System Model 2, or CESM2, funded mainly by the U.S. National Science Foundation and arguably the world’s most influential climate program. Then, one by one, a dozen climate-modeling groups around the world produced similar forecasts. “It was not just us,” Dr. Danabasoglu said. The scientists soon concluded their new calculations had been thrown off kilter by the physics of clouds in a warming world, which may amplify or damp climate change. “The old way is just wrong, we know that,” said Andrew Gettelman, a physicist at NCAR who specializes in clouds and helped develop the CESM2 model. “I think our higher sensitivity is wrong too. It’s probably a consequence of other things we did by making clouds better and more realistic. You solve one problem and create another.” Since then the CESM2 scientists have been reworking their climate-change algorithms using a deluge of new information about the effects of rising temperatures to better understand the physics at work. They have abandoned their most extreme calculations of climate sensitivity, but their more recent projections of future global warming are still dire—and still in flux. As world leaders consider how to limit greenhouse gases, they depend heavily on what computer climate models predict. But as algorithms and the computer they run on become more powerful—able to crunch far more data and do better simulations—that very complexity has left climate scientists grappling with mismatches among competing computer models. While vital to calculating ways to survive a warming world, climate models are hitting a wall. They are running up against the complexity of the physics involved; the limits of scientific computing; uncertainties around the nuances of climate behavior; and the challenge of keeping pace with rising levels of carbon dioxide, methane and other greenhouse gases. Despite significant improvements, the new models are still too imprecise to be taken at face value, which means climate-change projections still require judgment calls.

Update: Supreme Court to Weigh EPA Authority on Greenhouse Pollutants - The Supreme Court in late February is to hear West Virginia v. EPA, a case challenging the Environmental Protection Agency’s authority to regulate greenhouse gasses as pollutants. This site in November explored best- and worst-case scenario outcomes from the perspective of climate action advocates based on arguments in initial briefs filed by parties to the case. The Court’s decision to hear West Virginia v. EPA in the first place was controversial among some in the legal community and, in particular, among climate action proponents, and not just because of its environmental implicationsThe case to be argued before the Supreme Court on February 28 concerns the Clean Air Act provision that the Obama administration relied on to create the Clean Power Plan regulation. The Trump administration later repealed and replaced that regulation, substituting the weaker Affordable Clean Energy rule, which the D.C. Circuit vacated.The groups challenging the EPA’s authority in West Virginia v. EPA are essentially anticipating the possibility that the Biden administration will use the same provision of the Clean Air Act to put forward new greenhouse gas regulations on coal-fired power plants.That “anticipatory” aspect of the case is where things get complicated procedurally. To bring a lawsuit in federal court, plaintiffs must establish they have “standing.” Standing requires that a party show that they have been injured, that the person or institution they are suing caused the injury, and that the courts can redress the injury. Courts generally reject suits that deal with speculative injuries based on the view that under the Constitution they are to address only live “cases or controversies.” In other words, the federal courts cannot issue “advisory opinions” about situations, in this case a federal regulation not yet actually adopted or “promulgated.”The Biden EPA argued in a recent brief that the challengers in this case do not have standing because there is no EPA rule currently in place that uses the Clean Air Act provision in question to regulate greenhouse gasses: The EPA brief argues that the challengers’ injury is speculative. As the brief puts it, the challengers’ “real concern is that the EPA might incorporate some features of the [Clean Power Plan] into a future … rule. But the contours of such a rule are uncertain.”This argument presents a neat and easy way for the Supreme Court to hear the case without deciding its merits: The Court could decide it on standing grounds without deciding any other questions presented. Of course, the Court could later choose to hear a future case challenging eventual Biden administration greenhouse gas regulations if and when they are promulgated.Such an approach might appeal to some of the moderate conservative Justices, who tend to favor “judicial modesty” and often support dismissing cases on grounds that the Court does not have the power to hear them. And the liberal Justices might support such a ruling because it would minimize potential damage both to the EPA and to the administrative state (more on that below). But the Court chose to hear the case, doing so through its internal voting system that requires at least four votes to put West Virginia v. EPA on the docket. The exact rationale for that decision is speculative, but the case is likely attractive to conservatives because it presents an opportunity to limit the power of federal agencies, which some conservative jurists see as an unconstitutional expansion of government power. Presumably at least four Justices voted in favor of hearing the case so it can be considered on its merits, rather than dismiss it on grounds of lack of standing. The key question then involves whether those who seek to limit agency power can reach a five-vote majority on the nine-member Court. If not, a decision on standing grounds seems a likely outcome.

Activists Urge the International Energy Agency to Remove Paywalls Around its Data - Inside Climate News —A growing number of activists and academics are calling on the International Energy Agency to make its data free and available to everyone, ahead of the agency’s biennial board meeting in Paris next month. The IEA, which publishes a series of highly influential reports on global energy systems each year, provides a crucial data resource for researchers around the world who are focused on combating climate change. But much of the data in its reports is behind paywalls that can cost thousands of dollars to unlock: A full annual subscription costs almost $18,000 a year. Experts say the 30 member countries that make up the IEA’s governing board—including the U.S., Germany and a number of the world’s wealthiest nations—can afford the fees, but for independent researchers or less wealthy countries, IEA paywalls are a major roadblock to climate-related research efforts.“Climate change, and the low-carbon energy transition, are some of the most pressing challenges we face and most people stand to benefit from us making progress on them,” said Hannah Ritchie, head of research at Oxford University-based Our World in Data, a research center focused on the world’s largest problems. “If researchers, analysts and innovators can do their work more openly and get access to the data they need, they can accelerate this progress. The IEA paywalls are hindering some of our efforts on this.” In 2020, Ritchie and Our World in Data’s founder, Max Roser, started a campaign demanding that the IEA eliminate its paywalls. A year later, they published an open letter to IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol co-signed by more than 30 academics and climate researchers from around the world. In January, the Breakthrough Institute, a global research center that identifies and promotes technological solutions to environmental challenges, learned of Our World in Data’s efforts and started an online petition urging the IEA remove the paywalls on its energy data.Releasing the data “would be huge, especially for researchers in under-resourced or underprivileged areas, such as underdeveloped countries that simply can’t afford to even try to get this data right now,” said Adam Stein, who co-wrote the petition and serves as the Breakthrough Institute’s associate director for nuclear innovation, climate and energy.

How Billions in Infrastructure Funding Could Worsen Global Warming - The highways in Colorado, one of the nation’s fastest-growing states, are frequently clogged with suburban workers driving into Denver, skiers heading high into the Rocky Mountains and trucks rumbling across the Interstates. A Western frontier state with an affinity for the open road and Subaru Outbacks, Colorado’s traditional answer to traffic congestion could be summed up in two words: more asphalt.But widening highways and paving new roads often just spurs people to drive more, research shows. And as concerns grow about how tailpipe emissions are heating the planet, Colorado is among a handful of car-dominated states that are rethinking road building.In December, Colorado adopted a first-of-its-kind climate change regulation that will push transportation planners to redirect funding away from highway expansions and toward projects that cut vehicle pollution, such as buses and bike lanes.It’s a big change for Colorado, which is reeling from devastating wildfires and droughts fueled by global warming and where Denver and the Front Range often exceed federal ozone pollution standards, partly from vehicle exhaust. Under Gov. Jared Polis, a Democrat, the state aims to cut transportation emissions 40 percent below 2005 levels by 2030. The rule marks a new front in the battle against climate change. Increasingly, experts warn that if states want to slash planet-warming emissions from cars and trucks, it won’t be enough to sell more electric vehicles. They’ll also have to encourage people to drive less.In a nation built around the automobile, that’s not easy.“It’s a tough shift for us,” said Shoshana Lew, executive director of Colorado’s Department of Transportation. “Colorado is very different from a place like New York City that already has lots of transit. But if we want to clean up our transportation system as quickly as possible, we need to try everything we can.” Over the coming decade, the decisions that Colorado and other states make about how many new roads to build could have major consequences for America’s ability to tackle climate change. Transportation is the nation’s largest source of greenhouse gases, producing 29 percent of emissions, and has been stubbornly difficult to clean up.The new $1 trillion infrastructure law invests billions in climate-friendly programs like electric car chargers and public transit. But it also gives states $273 billion for highways over five years, with few strings attached. One analysis from the Georgetown Climate Center found that this money could significantly increase emissions if states keep adding highway lanes.

World's biggest companies accused of exaggerating their climate actions - The climate pledges of the world's largest companies plan to reduce absolute carbon emissions by just 40% on average, not 100% as suggested by their net-zero claims, according to a study of 25 corporations. The analysis, published Monday by non-profit organizations NewClimate Institute and Carbon Market Watch, found the headline climate pledges of most major multinational firms cannot be taken at face value. The study assessed the transparency of each of the firm's climate pledges and gave them an "integrity" rating. It scored them based on criteria including their climate targets, how much offsetting they planned to use and the reliability of those offsets, progress on reducing emissions and transparency. Amazon, Google and Volkswagen were among the household names found to have low integrity on their net-zero targets, while Unilever, Nestle and BMW Group were found to have very low integrity. None of the major multinationals were found to have high integrity overall. Maesrk came out on top with reasonable integrity, the report said, followed by Apple, Sony and Vodafone with moderate integrity. CNBC contacted the companies mentioned in the report for comment. Some disagreed with the methods used in the study and said they were committed to taking action to curb the climate crisis. Benjamin Ware, global head of climate delivery and sustainable sourcing at Nestle, said the firm's greenhouse gas emissions had already peaked and continue to decline. "We welcome scrutiny of our actions and commitments on climate change. However, the New Climate Institute's Corporate Climate Responsibility Monitor (CCRM) report lacks understanding of our approach and contains significant inaccuracies." Separately, a spokesperson for Amazon told CNBC: "We set these ambitious targets because we know that climate change is a serious problem, and action is needed now more than ever. As part of our goal to reach net-zero carbon by 2040, Amazon is on a path to powering our operations with 100% renewable energy by 2025." And a spokesperson for Volkswagen commented: "We agree with the aims of the New Climate Institute that large companies should be held accountable for their claims in a clear and transparent manner. We only disagree with some of their conclusions with respect to our company."

Committee to study Big Oil emissions pledges - The House Oversight and Reform Committee tomorrow will examine fossil fuel industry emissions pledges after delaying a planned hearing with board members from major oil companies. Climate scientist Michael Mann will testify alongside Tracey Lewis, policy counsel for Public Citizen, and Mark van Baal, founder of Follow This, a climate-focused activist investor group.The panel initially wanted to hold a hearing this week with members of the boards of directors from Exxon Mobil Corp., BP PLC, Shell PLC and Chevron Corp. as part of a larger investigation of Big Oil’s climate lobbying tactics and efforts to cast doubt on climate science.Chair Carolyn Maloney (D-N.Y.) and Environment Subcommittee Chair Ro Khanna (D-Calif.), who are leading the probe, had invited Alexander Karsner and Susan Avery of Exxon, Melody Meyer of BP, Enrique Hernandez of Chevron, and Jane Holl Lute of Shell.Maloney said they refused to participate tomorrow, but the companies and board members chalked it up to scheduling conflicts, with most saying they are willing to proceed with the hearing on a separate date (E&E Daily, Feb. 4).The committee announced last week it would reschedule the board members’ testimony to March 8. Maloney said it would be their “last chance to cooperate.”The committee’s investigation has been in the works for months, highlighted in October with a high-profile hearing featuring top executives from Exxon, BP, Shell, Chevron, the U.S. Chamber of Commerce and the American Petroleum Institute (Energywire, Oct. 29, 2021). Democrats are looking to press the board members, who are all involved in their respective companies’ sustainability efforts, on how they are pushing on climate from the inside and whether they agree with statements made by top executives during the October hearing.

Nancy Pelosi Spent $500K On Private Jets While Preaching About Climate Change --Despite her increasingly aggressive stance on climate change - the Democratic leader insists the US has a "moral obligation" to address climate change - House Speaker Nancy Pelosi has shelled out $500,000 for flights on private jets since October 2020. The California Dem's campaign paid Virginia-based Advanced Aviation Team a total of $423,707.62 for travel services on 10 occasions between October 2020 and December 2021, according to the Speaker's latest FEC filings, which were reported by Fox News. In January last year, Pelosi's campaign also paid California-based Clay Lacy Aviation $65,457.23, bringing its private jet expenses to a total of $489,164.85.Private jets produce more carbon dioxide emissions per passenger than commercial airplanes, according to an analysis by the European Transport & Environment."Flying on a private jet is probably the worst thing you can do for the environment," said T&E aviation director Andrew Murphy in the organization's report. "And yet, super-rich super polluters are flying around like there’s no climate crisis."Her hypocrisy is nothing new. As we have pointed out, the Davos crowd of globe-trotting business and political elites and their billionaire backers love taking their private jets to the Swiss conclave (at least, when it's not being cancelled due to the COVID pandemic) where they talk in urgent tones about the importance of combating the climate crisis.Other prominent Democrats including her former colleague Secretary of State John Kerry has been criticized for his use of a private jet while serving as the Biden Administration's climate czar.

As Earth warms, air conditioning use in California could exceed power supply in next decade --As climate change pushes temperatures ever higher, Californians could lose air conditioning for roughly one week each summer because the demand for cooling will have exceeded the capacity of the electrical grid, a new study has found. Absent any improvement to the power infrastructure or the efficiency of air conditioners, researchers say the state could hit this sweltering mark by the early 2030s, when global average temperature is predicted to rise 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels. If that happens, residents can expect more rolling blackouts like those seen during the punishing heatwave of August 2020, or even prolonged outages like the ones that followed severe winter storms that hit Texas in February 2021, according to the authors of the study, which appeared in Earth's Future, a publication of the American Geophysical Union. The researchers projected an even bigger increase in air conditioner-less days in some Southern and Midwestern states. Researchers predicted an average of 13.9 days for Missouri and 13.5 days for Illinois. Statewide, Californians can expect an average of 6.8 days per year when air conditioning is not available under this scenario, she said. The figure is an aggregate that reflects both the cooler northern reaches of the state and the warmer, more arid southern portions, she said. "If we could go in and break the state apart into different climate zones or regions, we might see that in L.A., for example, there might be a higher number of days without air conditioning than in San Francisco," Obringer said. A spike in heat-driven blackouts will likely result in increased mortality, with the effects landing more heavily on vulnerable communities, including those who are poorer, older and nonwhite, the authors said. The findings are in line with a Los Angeles Times investigation that revealed that extreme heat likely caused 3,900 deaths in California over the previous decade—six times the state's official tally—and that the undercounting has contributed to a lack of urgency in confronting the crisis. The effects of these worsening heat waves fall disproportionately on the poor and communities of color, the series found.

U.S. carbon pipeline proposals trigger backlash over potential land seizures -- A flurry of proposed carbon pipelines in the U.S. Midwest has triggered a battle over whether companies behind the projects should be allowed to seize land from unwilling property owners to secure a route, Reuters reported on Feb. 7. Hundreds of Iowa landowners, more than a dozen state counties and a handful of lawmakers are seeking to limit the use of eminent domain law by the projects, arguing property rights and other concerns outweigh the potential benefits of the pipelines to local industry and the climate, according to a Reuters analysis of regulatory documents and interviews with people involved. The issue has come to the forefront as the companies behind the projects seek to negotiate voluntary easements with landowners that would give them the legal right to dig, install and maintain the lines—which would transport carbon captured at biofuel processing plants for injection underground. If the landowners refuse easements, the companies would need to turn to eminent domain to gain access to the land. U.S. eminent domain law allows private companies to take over property if their project is deemed in the public interest and landowners are compensated. It has been used often to ensure energy companies can complete projects, like pipelines and transmission lines that move oil, gas and power to consumers. But the law has not yet been applied to carbon pipelines, which are primarily regulated and sited by states, rather than the federal government, according to the Department of Energy (DOE), and few of which have been constructed to date. How state regulators and legislators deal with the issue will have huge implications for the emerging U.S. carbon capture and storage (CCS) industry. The Biden administration has identified CCS as critical infrastructure to meet the country’s climate targets and oil companies, biofuel producers, and other emissions-heavy businesses are eying investment in CCS as a way to secure a role in a climate-friendly future. There are currently about 5,000 miles (8,047 km) of carbon dioxide pipelines in the United States, mainly in Texas and Wyoming, where the gas is pumped under oil and gas fields to increase pressure and boost production.

IEEFA U.S.: Federal blue hydrogen incentives: No reliable past, present or future– An IEEFA analysis of new federal hydrogen program incentives challenges the track record, current rationale and market future for “blue” hydrogen produced from natural gas. The Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act propels the energy transition forward with proven technologies and promising innovations like renewable energy and storage technologies. But it also encourages the development of blue hydrogen, which stands on flimsy economic and environmental footing. “Investors, state and federal officials need to ask a lot of questions. They need timely, complete data and analysis to make the right choices during this period of innovation and change,” said Suzanne Mattei, an IEEFA energy policy analyst. “But instead, they’re rushing off to spend billions of taxpayer dollars on unproven technologies rather than pursuing better options.” Blue hydrogen depends on carbon capture and sequestration (CCS) to reduce carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions, but IEEFA’s analysis points to decades of failed experiments that have wasted billions of dollars of federal money. New proposals, including Enchant Energy’s CCS retrofit of New Mexico’s San Juan Generating Station, claim to be able to extend the lives of coal-fired generators. “The federal government and some state governments are racing to finance carbon capture technologies. That is a mistake,” said David Schlissel, IEEFA’s director of resource planning analysis. “Decades of experiments and hard data show the technology has not been proven to capture 90% of the CO2 over the long term, which is what proponents claim it will do. Some research on how to decarbonize sectors of the economy is certainly warranted, but the best way to reduce the amount of CO2 pollution is to stop producing it. That means shutting down coal plants now and gas-fired plants as soon as possible—plus, moving directly to renewable energy, or green hydrogen produced from renewables if needed, and bypassing blue hydrogen.” The analysis notes that the drilling and transport of natural gas releases large amounts of methane, a chemical that is challenging to control and many times more powerful than CO2 as a climate change agent.

How governors races may change energy, from EVs to renewables - From rooftop solar incentives to pipelines, the outcome of several gubernatorial elections this November could shift state energy policies for years to come. At least half a dozen races for governor in 2022 are considered tossups, according to early polls and analyses. They include races in battleground states like Nevada and Michigan, where incumbent governors seeking to reduce carbon emissions from the power and transportation sectors are facing tough reelection campaigns. In other states, such as Arizona, Massachusetts and Pennsylvania, a handful of candidates are vying for an open seat. Nationally, incoming governors could help shape the energy sector by influencing how to spend federal dollars in the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act, which includes money for power lines, public transit, highways and other programs. In many states, governors are also responsible for key appointments, including directors of state energy offices and public utility regulators. “Over the last decade, we’ve seen the majority of substantive action on climate policy happen at the state level,” said Jared Leopold, former communications director at the Democratic Governors Association and co-founder of Evergreen Action. “Governors elections are as important as any election in determining the fate of the planet.” So far, Republican candidates in gubernatorial races have generally sought to tie high energy prices to policies supported by the Biden administration and their Democratic allies. Some have pledged to expand natural gas extraction and pipeline industries if elected governor. In Texas, for example, incumbent Gov. Greg Abbott (R) used his Jan 10 reelection campaign in Texas’ Rio Grande Valley to tout the state’s ability to attract businesses as well as jobs created by the oil and gas sector. “We cannot allow promoters of the Green New Deal to destroy those high-paying jobs,” he said. “One of the reasons I’m running for reelection is to secure the future of energy jobs in Texas.” Abbott’s main Democratic challenger, former Rep. Beto O’Rourke, is hoping to use last year’s electric grid crisis in Texas to win votes. O’Rourke has blamed Abbott and the Republican-controlled Legislature for failing to fix the Texas grid after previous winter storms and saddling consumers with higher bills after the one last year. “Our governor could not keep the lights on,” O’Rourke said during a campaign event streamed on Zoom.

Ohio bill would prevent HOAs from banning solar - Roughly 1.6 million Ohioans live in condominiums or houses subject to homeowner association rules, according to data compiled by iProperty Management. In general, the rules deal with the maintenance of common areas, services provided to residents, guidelines on landscaping and decorations, and other topics. Buyers agree to be governed by the rules as a way to protect their property investment and to promote pleasant living conditions.However, association rules often prevent homeowners from installing solar panels. A widely supported bill in the Ohio legislature aims to change that.Senate Bill 61 passed the Ohio Senate by a vote of 32 to 1 last month. The bill was introduced in the Ohio House on Feb. 1.Ohio Sen. Nickie Antonio, a Democrat from Lakewood, said she and Louis (Bill) Blessing, a Republican from Colerain Township, introduced the bipartisan bill last year after hearing from constituents about residents’ need for access to solar.“Right now it can be an economically beneficial thing to add solar to your home,” said Tristan Rader, Ohio program director for Solar United Neighbors. Electricity generated on-site can reduce a homeowner’s electric bill. Depending on the setup, it also could provide some backup power in case of a blackout. And it reduces a homeowner’s carbon footprint by curbing the fossil fuel pollution from meeting their energy needs.“All homeowners should have the right to use solar, if they wish,” said Delaware, Ohio, resident Brandy Rickard in her testimony on SB 61 last year. Her family has two children and views solar energy use “as a way to protect their future and be good environmental stewards.” The family consulted with a solar panel company to determine the costs and benefits of putting solar panels on their roof. But homeowner association restrictions prevented them from moving ahead.Linda and James Beerman had solar panels on their old house before moving into a new low-maintenance home in Harrison, Ohio. They wanted to install solar panels at the new home to protect against a blackout, especially in the winter, they said in theirtestimony on SB 61. They also want to buy an electric car, they said, and solar power could lower their costs. But homeowner association rules blocked them.SB 61 aims to deal with those problems, as well as update Ohio’s general law for condo and homeowner associations. On behalf of the Community Associations Institute, lawyer Darcy Mehling Good worked with Blessing’s office on language for the bill, and she testified in support of the bill last spring. So far, 26 states and the District of Columbia already have some form of solar access law, according to the association’s website.As passed by the Senate, SB 61 would let owners subject to condo or other homeowner association rules install rooftop solar generation if the unit includes the roof. Owners would be responsible for the cost of maintaining, repairing and insuring their roofs, and their homes couldn’t be directly above or below other units. Associations also may allow solar panels on common areas where the rules specify responsibility for the devices’ costs, insurance and replacement.

Why Nissan is moving from the internal combustion engine in Europe - The chief operating officer of Nissan on Tuesday explained that his company has decided to move away from the development of new internal combustion engines in Europe once a tougher set of emissions standards, known as Euro 7, come into force. During an interview with CNBC's "Squawk Box Europe," Ashwani Gupta laid out some of the reasons behind the planned shift, a subject he has addressed a number of times in the past. A key reason behind the decision, Gupta said, related to how competitive ICE cars would be following the introduction of Euro 7, given that new technology would have to be used for these vehicles to comply with regulations. Another factor to consider was whether customers would be willing to pay for the cost of such tech. According to Brussels-headquartered campaign group Transport & Environment, it's expected that Euro 7 standards will be implemented in 2025. From Gupta's comments, it would appear Nissan has made its mind up on how the market will develop and European consumers will behave going forward. "If the total cost of ownership of battery electric cars at Euro 7 is less than the total cost of ownership for the ICE cars," he said, "[then] definitely, customers will go for battery cars. So that's why we've decided not to develop ICE engines, starting [from] Euro 7, for Europe." Gupta was also keen to stress that the decision related to the development of new ICE engines, rather than those already in the market.

Biden administration seeks equity in guidance for electric vehicle charging network -A new guidance from the Biden administration as it prepares to disburse funds to states to build out an electric vehicle charging network seeks to do so with equity in mind. The guidance document issued on Thursday says that state plans submitted to the federal government to gain access to funds for the charging network “should explain how the State will deliver projects … [that] target at least 40 percent of the benefits towards disadvantaged communities.”This would put them in line with a White House Initiative called Justice40, which seeks to give at least 40 percent of the benefits of federal investments in climate and clean energy to disadvantaged communities. The report notes that the equity push doesn’t necessarily mean that 40 percent of the chargers need to be located in disadvantaged communities if they can benefit in other ways. The guidance comes as part of the bipartisan infrastructure law, which the Biden administration has touted as its signature Build Back Better climate and spending bill remains stalled in Congress. Wednesday’s rollout deals with the bill’s $5 billion program for states to build out a nationwide electric vehicle charging network. Funds for the program which will be dispersed to states over a five-year period. States will have until Aug. 1 to submit their plans, which the government will decide on by Sept. 30.

Electric truck deployments could jump tenfold as interest surges, study says -The U.S. has deployed 1,215 zero-emissions vehicles Class 2b through Class 8 as of December, but that could increase more than 10 times within 10 years, according to a study Calstart released on Wednesday. There are about 140,000 pending orders for zero-emission trucks, which are expected to be delivered between one to 10 years, the study found. Demand is creating more choice, too. Models of zero-emission trucks have grown 625% since 2019, Calstart found, potentially a sign of faith in the growing market despite relatively low adoption among heavier commercial vehicles.The report appears to be optimistic about the future of zero-emission trucks, but it also notes the transition may not be evenly represented nationwide.Of current deployments as of December 2021, more than half of the trucks — 738 — are in California, where state and local officials are aggressively asking the industry to begin the transition.Another 113 deployments are in New York, and 70 are in Texas. Twenty-four states, usually ones far less populated than the Golden State and the Empire State, have no zero-emission truck deployments, even in lighter classes. These include Kentucky, Alabama and Nevada.California's role as a launching pad for zero-emission trucks is not surprising. It wants fleets to cut emissions, with mandates for green-truck sales and operations, such as California Air Resources Board's Clean Truck Act. The state has also made grants for battery-electric owners and hydrogen fueling stations. And New York — the nation's fourth-largest state in population — added a rule at the end of 2021, with the aim of shifting to zero-emission heavy-duty trucks. Battery-electric trucks have shorter range than fuel-cell-electric vehicles, so short runs are seen as strong business case for deployment. And though California is the third-biggest state in square miles, it's ideal for those.The San Pedro Bay ports handle 40% of imported goods that flow into the United States, and shorter port trips — from drayage to nearby warehouses — are considred strong candidates for electric trucks. Models for the ports and intermodal are frequently touted at the annual Advanced Clean Transportation Expo, held in Long Beach.

Electric Vehicles From Hummer to Rivian to Ford Are Getting Heavier. Why? – Bloomberg Op-Ed - The brilliant thing about technology is how it tends to become smaller (and cheaper) over time. One glaring exception has been the most expensive piece of kit many of us buy: the automobile. Due to the popularity of bulbous, gizmo-laden SUVs and pickup trucks — some driven no further than a supermarket parking lot — modern vehicles have piled on the pounds in the past three decades. And the shift from combustion engines to electric vehicles is poised to make this weight problem even worse, at least in the short term, as the lithium-ion battery packs used to power EVs arebulky and heavy.Power plant rule signals future environmental justice tack - In its opening bid to reverse a Trump-era rollback last week, EPA sought to rebuild the legal foundation for power plant emission regulations put in place a decade ago. Embedded in the rule are also clues about how the agency might justify future steps to reduce the disproportionate impact of toxic air pollution on low-income communities and people of color. In a draft rule,, EPA officially conceded for the first time that its original compliance price tag forecast for the Mercury and Air Toxics Standards was likely far too high. But the agency adamantly maintained that it’s not necessary to translate all of the projected gains from less disease and death into dollars-and-cents terms, thereby laying out the groundwork for achieving environmental justice goals. Even when information is lacking to “monetize” the benefits of expected pollution cuts, “we think it is appropriate to give substantial weight to those public health impacts,” says the draft. That statement can be read as a rebuke to the Trump administration’s stance, which sought to subject all major proposed Clean Air Act rules to cost-benefit analyses. It is “a significant signal for future regulations that EPA is going to consider nonquantifiable benefits more heavily than they have in the past,” David Loring, an environmental attorney with Schiff Hardin LLP who represents utilities, said in an interview. If the exact implications of any such shift have yet to play out, Loring foresaw EPA taking a similar stance with other rules. More broadly, he added, it could undergird the rationale for factoring in “environmental justice concerns” that have been a Biden administration hallmark. Agreeing was Mary Evans, a public policy professor at the University of Texas, Austin. Under an approach that is supposed to account for the “totality of the circumstances,” EPA “is going to put environmental justice analysis on a different ground than it’s been on,” Evans said in an interview and follow-up email exchange. The reason: A cost-benefit test may not do much good in determining whether a specific regulation will lead to a more equal distribution of pollution exposure or instead exacerbate existing differences.

Here are the minerals we need for batteries, solar and other clean energy tech. From aluminum to zinc, these are the building blocks of our clean energy future. In a previous article, I offered a broad overview of the problems related to minerals needed for the clean-energy transition. To recap:

• Clean-energy technologies are more minerals-intensive to build than their fossil-fuel counterparts.
• The growth of clean energy will rapidly raise demand for a set of key minerals.
• Mining and processing of those minerals are geographically concentrated, often in countries with weak labor and environmental protections.
• Mineral mines and processing facilities often pollute water, scar landscapes and impoverish communities.
• Production may not be able to expand fast enough to keep up with demand, which could cause supply constrictions and price fluctuations and slow the transition away from fossil fuels.

That’s the big picture. In this article, I want to take a closer look at some of the biggest clean-energy technologies and the minerals required to build them. Specifically, I’ll cover batteries, solar PV, wind, geothermal, concentrated solar, and carbon capture and storage. I’m not going to get too deep into any one of these — just a quick tour.

WV House passes bill clarifying who profits from extracting rare earth elements from mine drainage -In a nearly unanimous vote, the House of Delegates has passed a bill designed to clarify who can pro¦t from the extraction of rare earth elements and critical minerals essential to technology products and national security. The House on Monday approved House Bill 4003, which would establish that any party that treats any mine drainage may derive “commercial bene¦t” from any elements or other byproducts of the treated material. The idea behind HB 4003 is to encourage treatment of acid mine drainage, addressing one of West Virginia’s environmental problems while clearing up what party can enjoy the pro¦ts of what is increasingly looking like a lucrative endeavor due to acid mine drainage’s high concentration of rare earth elements and critical materials. ___ HB 4003 applies to all mine drainage, not just acid mine drainage. The bill sailed through the House in a 94-1 vote, with only Minority Chair Shawn Fluharty, D-Ohio, voting against the measure. Assistant Majority Whip Riley Keaton, R-Roane, spoke in favor of HB 4003 on the House §oor prior to its passage, predicting it would help reindustrialize West Virginia. “The kinds of industries that rely on a steady stream of rare earth and critical minerals to function are exactly the kinds of industries that we can count on to create the kind of jobs that people can support a family on,” Keaton said. Rare earth elements are a group of 17 metallic elements whose magnetic, electrochemical and other properties make them key components of cellphones, televisions, computer hard drives and other electronic devices as well as defense applications, including lasers and radar and sonar systems. Rare earth elements are relatively abundant in the Earth’s crust, but minable concentrations are less common than for most other mineral commodities, according to the U.S. Geological Survey. Former President Donald Trump issued an executive order in 2017 de¦ning critical minerals as essential to U.S. economic and national security. The United States had 1.5 million metric tons of rare earth elements in reserve as of January 2021 — 3% of China’s total reserves, according to U.S. Geological Survey data. West Virginia Water Research Institute Director Paul Ziemkiewicz argued in committee meetings last year before state lawmakers that rare earth recovery efforts could be a long-term economic solution for the state. The institute has been assessing the feasibility of scaling up acid mine drainage treatment technology to support a nationwide supply chain of valuable rare earth elements and critical minerals. HB 4003 would follow through on Ziemkiewicz’s suggestion to state lawmakers that they clarify who owns the resources resulting from treated acid mine drainage. Ziemkiewicz has also said rare earth element recovery could supply ¦nancial support for state mine cleanup funding. HB 4003 speci¦es that all funds received by the state Department of Environmental Protection from commercial bene¦t from mine drainage treatment would go into the agency’s Special Reclamation Water Trust Fund or a set-aside fund for acid mine drainage. A report released in June by the state Legislative Auditor’s O¨ce Post Audit Division warned state mine cleanup funds are nearing insolvency. West Virginia lawmakers and environmental regulators risk letting the state’s mining reclamation program slip into insolvency through gaping holes in statutory and permitting oversight, the report found. The Department of Environmental Protection has failed to comply with state and federal law in its reclamation program oversight, the report said, resulting in missed opportunities to ¦nancially shore up a program that will need hundreds of millions of dollars to reclaim permit sites under federal regulations. West Virginia Land & Mineral Owners Association President Phil Montague has expressed concern about the bill potentially rewarding third parties who treat mine drainage rather than landowners on whose properties the mine drainage is located.

Biden Hitwoman’s Poison Pen Stops Twin Metals Mine - Did Joe Biden lie to American miners during the 2020 Presidential campaign? Two weeks before the election, one reporter cited “three [unnamed] sources familiar with the matter” to claim that Biden’s support for domestic mining of rare-earth metals, cobalt, copper, and other critical minerals was going to be “a boon for the mining industry.” A year into Biden’s term, this rosy scenario looks as sincere as “we will never impose a vaccine mandate” or “we will leave no one behind in Afghanistan.”The Biden “reversal” should come as no surprise. It was cemented in stone with Biden’s appointment of anti-mining Native American activist Deb Haaland as Interior Secretary. Minnesota tribal leaders who had opposed the Twin Metals mine cheered her confirmation, which they saw as a clear sign she was going to give them a win. Mining advocates, including Rep. Peter Stauber (R, MN), whose district includes the Twin Metals mining site, wrote that the Haaland nomination is “a direct threat to working men and women and a rejection of responsible development of America’s natural resources.” Last June, however, the Institute for Energy Research warned that President “no longer supported” domestic mining of critical minerals. His “bright idea” was to rely on other nations (China) to supply nearly all of the “green” metals and just focus on domestic processing. Secretary Haaland was likely just being coy (at best). Long before her confirmation, the Biden team brought back fellow Native American activist Ann Marie Bledsoe Downes from a stint at Arizona State University. Downes, who had served the Obama Administration in multiple roles at the Bureau of Indian Affairs, was hired in January 2021 as Deputy Solicitor for Indian Affairs but is now listed as Haaland’s Principal Deputy Solicitor.Downes was assigned to provide a legal justification for withdrawing the Twin Metals permits, and she did not disappoint. In a legal opinion issued on January 25, Downes concluded that the Twin Metals leases had been wrongfully renewed in 2019 and that the U.S. Forest Service had exercised a veto power over the project that the Trump bureaucrats ignored. A day later, Haaland dropped the bomb: Twin Metals was dead as a doornail.Axios reporter Torey Van Oot stated that Haaland’s action was both a “big win” for environmentalists and “a potentially fatal blow” to backers of the Twin Metals mine. Stauber agreed that the decision “will have devastating impacts on northern Minnesota and our nation.” Worse, Stauber said, Biden is “choosing foreign sourced minerals, including mines that use child slave labor, over our own domestic, union workforce that follows the best labor and environmental standards in the world…. This Administration has decided to leave American, blue-collar workers behind and bow to pressure from radicals.”

Nearly 28 GW of new US generating capacity added in 2021, led by wind - The U.S. added 27,959 MW of new generating capacity to the grid in 2021, 12% more than the previous year, according to an S&P Global Market Intelligence analysis. Meanwhile, 8,556 MW of capacity was retired in 2021, netting an additional 19,403 MW available to the U.S. power grid. Wind and solar capacity dominated the new additions, accounting for 41% and 36%, respectively. Natural gas-fired capacity, which made up about a quarter of additions in 2020, made up less than a fifth in 2021. The Electric Reliability Council of Texas Inc. led organized power market regions in new capacity additions. Power plant operators energized 8,139 MW of new generating capacity in the region, equivalent to 29% of the nation's total. The new generation comes after a major blackout in February 2021, when historically cold weather prompted power plant failures and fossil-fuel supply issues. Texas policymakers have pledged to keep the lights on this winter, but the new additions will add only moderate reliability benefits to the market: 42% of the new additions were from wind, followed by 40% from solar. Natural gas-fired capacity, which suffered critical failures during the blackout, represented a 13% share of new additions. Energy storage additions were also limited, at 480 MW, but the resource is growing quickly. For now, Texans will need to mostly rely on updated weatherization rules and the potential of proposed market design changes to handle any additional sharp freezes and summer heat. The two largest individual plants added to the ERCOT grid included NextEra Energy Resources LLC's 500-MW, 180-turbine White Mesa Wind Project and Algonquin Power & Utilities Corp. subsidiary Liberty Power Group's 492-MW Maverick Creek Wind Project. A number of corporate buyers, including Apple Inc., have contracted for output from White Mesa, while General Mills Inc. is taking a portion of the Maverick Creek project's output. More than half of the new capacity added in the nation's largest power market, the PJM Interconnection LLC, is natural gas-fired generation. Market incentives and reliability needs for natural gas-fired generators remain very strong in the region, according to industry observers. Several large plants made up the bulk of new gas-fired additions in the region, including the 1,132-MW South Field Energy plant in Ohio, the 620-MW Hill Top Energy Center in Pennsylvania and the 485-MW Long Ridge Energy Generation Project in Ohio.

Why Texas’s Power Grid Still Hasn’t Been Fixed - Last year’s disaster stemmed from a confluence of extreme weather and systemic weaknesses. On February 10th, a severe and prolonged cold front moved into Texas. Within days, temperatures had plummeted thirty to forty degrees below normal, and stayed below freezing in parts of the state for nearly a week. Many natural-gas facilities—the largest source of electricity in Texas—were inadequately winterized and began to fail as wells froze and equipment seized up. On the night of February 14th, as temperatures dipped and Texans cranked up their electric heaters, demand surged beyond the worst-case expectation of sixty-seven gigawatts, as estimated by the Electric Reliability Council of Texas, which manages the state’s grid. In the end, nearly five million Texans lost power, many for several days. The state reported that two hundred and forty-six people died as a result of the storm. (Other sources say that this is drastically underreported.) Some died of hypothermia, and others died trying to keep warm. In the storm’s aftermath, we learned that, as bad as things got, they could have been far worse. The system was so thoroughly overwhelmed that we were minutes away from an automatic shutdown of the entire grid, which would have taken months to get back online. In the aftermath, Governor Abbott blamed the grid failure on renewable energy. (He later walked this claim back.) But iced-over wind turbines weren’t the villain. Wind turbines supply a fraction of the grid’s winter power supply, much less than the similarly icebound natural-gas processors. Instead, blame rested with Texas’s unique energy structure, and its lax approach to regulation.The legislature did pass a bill setting new weatherization standards, with regulations applying mainly to electrical plants. But natural-gas facilities, whose failure was a driving factor in last year’s crisis and in previous blackouts, were treated with much more deference. In Texas, the oil-and-gas industry is overseen primarily by the Railroad Commission. The state has no effective conflict-of-interest rules against regulators’ maintaining a financial interest in the industries that they oversee, and the elected members of the Commission regularly have business ties to the energy industry. Unsurprisingly, the Railroad Commission has been persistently reluctant to impose anything like fines or rules on one of Texas’s most powerful industries. It’s unclear what weatherization requirements natural-gas plants will have to meet by what deadline, and what, if any, enforcement there will be if they don’t comply. As Russell Gold pointed out, in Texas Monthly, winterizing all the wells in Texas would cost up to two hundred million dollars annually according to some estimates, equivalent to one or two days of revenue for the gas industry, which profited enormously from Uri-related price surges. Abbott claimed that necessary actions had been taken to shore up the grid. But, when temperatures fell below freezing in January, gas supply dropped by nearly twenty per cent in the Permian Basin, a key region for the state’s oil production. Last week, with even colder weather forecast, residents began to panic; it was clear that winterization efforts are far from complete.

What utility CEOs plan to tell Biden today - Representatives from major electric utility companies will meet with President Biden today to advocate for sweeping new clean energy tax credits and outline their efforts to build a low-carbon energy system.Organized by the Edison Electric Institute, a trade association for investor-owned utilities, the meeting will feature electric utility CEOs from companies around the country. Confirmed attendees include Pedro Pizarro, president and CEO of Edison International, the parent company of Southern California Edison; Southern Co. President and CEO Tom Fanning; Nick Akins, chairman, president and CEO of American Electric Power; and Exelon Senior Executive Vice President and Chief Operating Officer Calvin Butler.EEI told E&E News yesterday that it is asking for a 100 percent direct pay option for all clean energy credits; a new tax credit for existing nuclear power plants; and new credits for energy storage, transmission lines and hydrogen. In addition, EEI has called for expanding tax breaks for electric vehicles and EV infrastructure, as well as for the opportunity to choose between production tax credits and investment tax credits for solar projects.The meeting comes as progressive Democrats and clean energy groups are pushing for renewed discussions over the stalled “Build Back Better Act” (E&E Daily, Feb. 8). The proposal contains $320 billion in tax breaks for renewable energy projects, transmission lines, energy storage and other resources, but it hit a roadblock in the narrowly divided Senate in December, when Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) announced he would not support it. Given the uncertain future of the “Build Back Better Act,” EEI and its member companies want Congress to enact legislation that offers “forward-thinking actions to address climate change,” including an expansive, technology-neutral clean energy tax package, EEI President Tom Kuhn said in a statement about the meeting.

Power plant rule signals future environmental justice tack - In its opening bid to reverse a Trump-era rollback last week, EPA sought to rebuild the legal foundation for power plant emission regulations put in place a decade ago. Embedded in the rule are also clues about how the agency might justify future steps to reduce the disproportionate impact of toxic air pollution on low-income communities and people of color. In a draft rule,, EPA officially conceded for the first time that its original compliance price tag forecast for the Mercury and Air Toxics Standards was likely far too high. But the agency adamantly maintained that it’s not necessary to translate all of the projected gains from less disease and death into dollars-and-cents terms, thereby laying out the groundwork for achieving environmental justice goals. Even when information is lacking to “monetize” the benefits of expected pollution cuts, “we think it is appropriate to give substantial weight to those public health impacts,” says the draft. That statement can be read as a rebuke to the Trump administration’s stance, which sought to subject all major proposed Clean Air Act rules to cost-benefit analyses. It is “a significant signal for future regulations that EPA is going to consider nonquantifiable benefits more heavily than they have in the past,” David Loring, an environmental attorney with Schiff Hardin LLP who represents utilities, said in an interview. If the exact implications of any such shift have yet to play out, Loring foresaw EPA taking a similar stance with other rules. More broadly, he added, it could undergird the rationale for factoring in “environmental justice concerns” that have been a Biden administration hallmark. Agreeing was Mary Evans, a public policy professor at the University of Texas, Austin. Under an approach that is supposed to account for the “totality of the circumstances,” EPA “is going to put environmental justice analysis on a different ground than it’s been on,” Evans said in an interview and follow-up email exchange. The reason: A cost-benefit test may not do much good in determining whether a specific regulation will lead to a more equal distribution of pollution exposure or instead exacerbate existing differences.

EPA nears deal with Wyo. over massive coal plant - After months of trading barbs, EPA and Wyoming officials say they’ve had a breakthrough in talks over the future of one of America’s largest coal plants. The reversal comes after a meeting between EPA Administrator Michael Regan and Wyoming Gov. Mark Gordon (R) in Washington, D.C., late last month that could lead to a fuel switch at the Jim Bridger power plant from coal to natural gas. EPA has said it intends to reject Wyoming’s plan to limit haze-forming emissions at the facility because it does not comply with the Clean Air Act. One of the plant’s four generating units could close as soon as April if the emerging agreement collapses. The stakes are enormous. The coal plant is one of the largest polluters in the nation, with average annual carbon dioxide emissions equivalent to those from 2.6 million cars. But the plant is also an engine of Wyoming’s economy. More than 500 people work there and at a coal mine servicing it. Electricity generated at Jim Bridger is shipped across the West to customers in Idaho, Oregon, Utah and Washington. The potential deal over its future, which hasn’t previously been reported, marks a sudden reversal in talks between Wyoming and EPA officials. Gordon had accused EPA of trying to close the plant to help achieve the Biden administration’s climate goal of halving U.S. greenhouse gas emissions by 2030. The agency denies that assertion. The details of the emerging deal are still being negotiated, but the most likely option appears to include converting two of the plant’s coal units to natural gas. PacifiCorp, Jim Bridger’s operator and majority owner, proposed making those changes. “Everything is on the table, including the conversion to gas,” said Randall Luthi, Gordon’s energy adviser.

Travelers to stop underwriting new coal-fired power plants, tar sands -- Insurance giant Travelers has adopted a new climate policy committing not to underwrite new coal-fired power plants. The insurer has also committed not to underwrite new policies or make new investments in companies that generate more than 30% of their revenue or energy production from coal or have more than 30% of their reserves in tar sands. Travelers will also phase out existing relationships that exceed these thresholds by 2030. Environmental advocacy groups lauded the step. “Adopting a coal and tar sand exclusion policy is a notable first step from Travelers,” said Tom Swan, executive director of Connecticut Citizen Action Group. “The insurance industry is being forced to wake up to the threat posed by climate change, and to its roles and responsibilities. There is real momentum now for insurance companies in the US to align their policies with climate science and end support for fossil fuels.” Travelers was one of the last major insurance companies without any restrictions on coal underwriting, according to Insure Our Future, a US coalition of advocacy groups. Travelers now joins a growing list of at least 35 insurers globally that have ended or limited coverage for coal projects – including all major European insurers and most Asian insurers. Travelers is the third North American insurer and the 14th insurer globally to restrict insurance for the tar sands oil sector.

Gov. Justice signs repeal of nuclear power prohibition - — Gov. Jim Justice signed a bill repealing a prohibition on nuclear power plant construction in West Virginia into law Tuesday while also urging further study of the issue.According to a letter sent to the West Virginia Legislature on Tuesday, Justice signed Senate Bill 4, repealing sections of the state code banning the construction of nuclear power plants in West Virginia.SB 4 passed both the House of Delegates and state Senate in January by wide bipartisan margins. Justice expressed his pleasure in signing the bill, but he urged lawmakers to continue to study the issue of nuclear power going forward.“While I have approved this bill, I think it is important to note that any development or placement of nuclear technologies in this State must be done thoughtfully and, above all, safely,” Justice wrote. “I call upon our Legislature to continue to research and monitor nuclear initiatives around the nation to ensure appropriate regulatory or safety measure are in place as new technologies are developed and implemented.” SB 4 removes two sections of code banning the construction of new nuclear power plants except under certain circumstances. The ban has been in place since 1996. Both the Public Service Commission and the state Department of Environmental Protection have rules and regulations in place dealing with the construction of new power plants and the handling of radioactive waste. New nuclear power plants also come under the authority of the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission.

Europe’s Nuclear Fusion Race Is Going Private - Nuclear fusion has been posited as a kind of silver bullet solution to a seemingly insurmountable and wicked problem. For the better part of the last century, fusion has been a thing of science fiction and thought experiments rather than lab experiments. But in recent years major breakthroughs have brought commercial nuclear fusion closer to reality than ever before. Fusion, which is the form of energy production that powers the sun, involves the fusing of atoms, which emits several times more energy than nuclear fission, the atom-splitting technology that currently takes place at nuclear power plants. And, unlike nuclear fission, fusion leaves behind no radioactive waste and carries no risk of nuclear meltdown, making it an ideal candidate for a virtually limitless clean energy future. So far, relatively few large-scale nuclear fusion initiatives have gotten off the ground, due to huge barriers to entry. Because of the enormous expense associated with building a reactor capable of facilitating fusion, so far the field has been dominated by publicly funded projects such as Europe’sITER and China’s EAST (Experimental Advanced Superconducting Tokamak). As scientists have gotten closer and closer to achieving ‘ignition’ – which refers to a nuclear fusion reaction that emits more energy than it consumes – the private sector has become increasingly interested in getting into the industry on the bottom floor and positioning itself at the forefront of what could be a world-changing innovation. So far, while nuclear fusion has been successfully achieved in labs, ignition has remained elusive.Now, however, the playing field is changing and competition is heating up as private enterprise gets involved. Last year, the nascent nuclear fusion sector was the recipient of more than 2.6 billion USD in venture capital, primarily in the United States. Now, however, fusion fever has hopped across the pond and is seriously gaining traction among private enterprises in Europe. Even in Germany, Europe’s preeminent anti-nuclear authority, nuclear fusion has gained significant ground. Marvel Fusion, a Munich-based company has raised 35 million Euros (about 40 million USD) for their nuclear fusion venture, and has recently solidified partnerships with Siemens Energy, France’s Thales, and the privately-owned German mechanical engineering group Trumpf.Like some of its private counterparts in the United States, Marvel Fusion is not relying on the massive magnets and extreme heat which are the basis of mass-scale fusion experiments like ITER, but is instead employing targeted lasers to trigger nuclear fusion reactions. This model is in its infancy, but holds great promise and has clearly gained the confidence of investors with deep pockets. “It’s a theoretical model, which is essentially a very large computer simulation, and then step by step it is being validated in an experimental campaign that started last year,” Marvel Fusion chief executive Moritz von der Linden told the Financial Times for an article published last week. The newfound interest in nuclear fusion in Europe coincides with a serious energy crunch which has shown the fallibility of the continent’s energy security in recent months. The shortage of energy has sent energy prices through the roof and revealed the extent of Europe’s dependence on Russia for natural gas. The ability to create virtually limitless clean energy at will is an undeniably attractive possibility. With enough money and support from the public and private sectors across the world, nuclear fusion could get the the final push it needs to break through to ignition in time to save the planet from climate catastrophe and geopolitical crisis.

European nuclear fusion experiment announces 'record-breaking' results - Researchers working on a project centered around fusion energy — the process that powers stars — have hailed "record-breaking" results produced by a landmark experiment in the U.K.Engineers and scientists from the Eurofusion consortium were able to produce 59 megajoules of heat energy from fusion across a period of five seconds on Dec. 21, 2021. It surpasses a previous record from 1997, when 22 megajoules of heat energy was generated. The amount of energy produced by the experiment is not huge, however, with reports stating that 59 megajoules can boil around 60 kettles of water.The results were achieved at the Joint European Torus, or JET, facility in Oxfordshire, U.K. Co-funded by the European Commission, Eurofusion is made up of thousands of engineers, scientists, students and other experts from throughout Europe."The record, and more importantly the things we've learned about fusion under these conditions and how it fully confirms our predictions, show that we are on the right path to a future world of fusion energy," Tony Donne, program manager at Eurofusion, said on Wednesday. "If we can maintain fusion for five seconds, we can do it for five minutes and then five hours as we scale up our operations in future machines," Donne added.While a significant amount of work is required for fusion to realize its potential, there are high hopes for it going forward.A statement released by organizations involved in the JET project said fusion promised a "near-limitless green electricity source for the long term, using small amounts of fuel that can be sourced worldwide from inexpensive materials." The Culham Centre for Fusion Energy, which operates JET and is a member of Eurofusion, describes fusion as "the process that takes place in the heart of stars and provides the power that drives the universe."

Japan halts shipment of black rockfish caught off Fukushima over radiation– (Reuters) - Japan's health ministry said on Tuesday it had ordered the suspension of shipments of black rockfish caught off Fukushima prefecture after radiation exceeding an upper limit was detected in a catch late last month. The development comes on the heels of an announcement by Taiwan that it would relax a ban on food imports from Japan put in place after the 2011 Fukushima nuclear disaster. The suspension means the targetted fish would not be shipped, regardless of the destination, a ministry official said.

US nuclear power plants contain dangerous counterfeit parts, report finds - At least some nuclear power plants in the US contain counterfeit parts that could pose significant risks, an investigation by the inspector general’s office of the Nuclear Regulatory Commission has found. Those parts “present nuclear safety and security concerns that could have serious consequences,” says the resulting report published on February 9th.While concerns about safety and nuclear waste have vexed the nuclear power industry for decades, the new findings come amidst growing enthusiasm for nuclear energy as a carbon-free power source that can help nations meet their climate goals.The investigation was conducted after unnamed individuals alleged that “most, if not all,” nuclear plants in the US have fake or faulty parts. The inspector general’s office uncovered problems with counterfeit parts at a few different plants as part of its investigation. The report also says that the DOE had separately flagged 100 “incidents” involving counterfeit parts just last year. It’s a problem that the US will have to crack down on if it moves forward with plans to include nuclear power in its transition to clean energy. Without greater oversight at the NRC, the report warns, the risk of counterfeit parts going unnoticed in the nation’s nuclear power plants could rise. As part of its inquiry, the inspector general’s office looked for parts that are illegally altered to look like legitimate products, parts that are “intentionally misrepresented to deceive,” and parts that don’t meet product specifications. It sampled four power plants across the US and found evidence of counterfeit parts at one of those plants in the midwest. It also points to nuclear power plants in the Northeast, separate from those it sampled, where a “well-placed NRC principal” found that counterfeit parts were involved in two separate component failures. The NRC might be underestimating the prevalence of counterfeit parts, the report warns, because the regulatory agency doesn’t have a robust system in place for tracking problematic parts. It only requires plants to report counterfeits in extraordinary circumstances, like if they lead to an emergency shutdown of a reactor. The report also notes that the NRC hasn’t thoroughly investigated all counterfeit allegations. There were 55nuclear power plants operating in the US as of September 2021, and the inspector general’s office sampled just four for its report.

Energy Harbor's Davis-Besse nuclear power plant in Ohio faces valve problem - Energy Harbor Nuclear Corp.'s 971-MW Davis-Besse in Oak Harbor, Ohio, was operating at 28% of capacity late in the morning of Feb. 7 following a relief valve malfunction after the unit had begun coasting down to a refueling and maintenance outage, company spokesperson Jason Copsey said. The plant was operating at 98% power and was coasting to a spring refueling and maintenance outage when the valve problem occurred Feb. 5, said Copsey, who explained that the turbine and generator were taken offline at 3:27 pm ET that day and the reactor was stabilized at 14% power but was never shut. Repairs were made, but Copsey did not say when the refueling and maintenance outage will begin and how long the outage will last. "Details regarding refueling and maintenance will be available once we are closer to the outage," he said. The reactor operated at 20% early the morning of Feb. 7, the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission said in a daily reactor status report. US nuclear power units typically reduce their output gradually before shutting for refueling. This so-called coastdown period varies in duration from several days to several weeks. The average length of US nuclear refueling outages in 2020, according to S&P Global Platts data, was 34.5 days as some operators deferred certain work due to coronavirus measures.

FERC Auditors Find FirstEnergy Accounting Irregularities | RTO Insider -- A FERC audit of FirstEnergy found numerous instances of misallocated costs that may have been passed through to customers.

Northeast Ohio injection well operator asks state board to allow more powerful earthquakes before required shutdown - cleveland.com — A company that ran a wastewater injection drilling well in Northeast Ohio wants a state board to change certain parameters it was ordered to follow to resume operations, including allowing for more powerful earthquakes before it must shut down. AWMS Water Solutions of Warren is asking the Oil and Gas Commission to amend an order from the Ohio Department of Natural Resources’ Oil and Gas Resources Division for a well on a 5-acre site in Weathersfield Township in Trumbull County, about 70 miles southeast of Cleveland.

Utica Shale Academy to fall short of funding expectations — The latest funding formula will leave the Utica Shale Academy about $120,000 short of expectations in this fiscal year. “We have to keep an eye on spending,” said Robert Barrett, fiscal officer. “We are trying to evolve this program into something that is worthwhile for these kids so that they have a career that they can go into when they graduate.” Barrett said after analyzing the latest school funding figures for the U.S.A., which emphasizes career training and assistance for students needing to recover credits in order to graduate, he has determined the latest funding formula does not take into account the growth the school has seen in the last couple years. The school funding formula for the state is basing numbers on the number of students involved in career tech during the fiscal year 2020, instead of the current enrollment figures in 2022. Barrett said the school only had six to eight kids involved in career tech at that time, but now there are about 70.Barrett said he has questioned if there will be a correction for the school’s growth and told there is not one planned for this fiscal year. During Monday’s meeting, the U.S.A. board approved a resolution to join the GRADS Coalition, which provides schools dropout prevention and recovery schools a voice in Columbus. The school will break ground on an outdoor welding lab in the next few weeks, a steel building that will have lean-to bays of the side where students will be able to learn to weld outside in the elements. Plans are also approved now for the indoor welding lab planned for the basement of the Utica Shale Academy school housed in the Hutson Building. Watson also talked about future equity grants for next year with the continued symbiotic relationship with Southern Local and the potential partnership in the works with someone in the northern part of the county, but declined to further name the organization.

Boone Co. residents concerned after vandalism causes oil leak into river --An act of vandalism is causing oil to spill into the Pond Fork River in Boone County. Firefighters say the tank that was vandalized help up to 5,000 gallons of oil inside and it is currently unknown how much oil escaped from the tank. G.W. Davis lives at the mouth of Jack Branch Road less that a mile from the transformer substation. “I had no idea they had anything with oil or whatever,” said Davis. He said he did not know there was oil in the tanks of an old transformer substation. Saturday he grew concerned when he saw fire trucks driving by in the afternoon, but said he did not know what they were doing. Boone County firefighters said they went up to check the substation owned by Lexington Coal Company after a person came forward and said they could see oil sheen on the Pond Fork River. Firefighters said they found out the station had been vandalized. The gate to a 5,000 gallon oil tank had been cut and the valve to the tank had been turned to let oil leak out. “There is always shady people coming in and out of here plus they can come in from another way besides this way,” said Davis. The West Virginia Department of Environmental Protection was called out to investigate. Officials with the DEP said the tank contained mineral oil inside and when it was vandalized that oil spilled into a sediment pond nearby. Firefighters say the oil also leaked into the Pond Fork River. A spokesperson with the DEP said no sheen or residue was visible and no fishkill had been observed

Unclear who is investigating oil leak and vandalism; community activist speaks out - Oil sits on top of the areas where the water pools on the Pond Fork River.Maria Gunnoe is the director of a non-profit, Mother Jones Community Foundation, with a long list of awards for community activism in West Virginia. She has been capturing the oil leak the only way she can which is on video.“I have seen a very clear sheen of oil and oil substance I’ll call it, on the river and it has a very pungent smell to it,” said Gunnoe.Boone County firefighters, including the Van Fire Department, said they got a call from a concerned person Saturday afternoon when they also saw the sheen on the river. “It’s everywhere that I know, from Bull Creek up in and through Madison. Every place that the water slows down, this is puddling up,” said Gunnoe.Firefighters traced the leakage back to this transformer substation in the Jack’s Branch area.They found the gate to the station cut open and the valve on a 5,000-gallon oil tank turned on and with oil flowing straight out with very little left.The West Virginia Department of Environmental Protection said the act of vandalism released mineral oil from the tank. While looking out at the rainbow colored ripples, Gunnoe thinks of the kids she teaches to fish in these waters.“Then I hear that it is mineral oil, it’s only mineral oil, and everything should be fine. I don’t agree with that and I would like full disclosure on it because our kids recreate in this water. We fish, we eat the fish, and we need to know,” said Gunnoe.Boone County dispatch said no law enforcement was ever dispatched to the call, although EMS, fire, emergency management and the WV DEP were called out.WSAZ followed up with both the Boone County Sheriff’s Office and the West Virginia State Police. Neither said they are part of any investigation. Gunnoe lives five miles from where the spill happened. With her experience, she said this is one of the worst spills she has seen. “That substation is not well secured, so anyone can go up in there. Anyone could have got into it and done the damage that has been done to our stream,” said Gunnoe. The DEP said the Madison Fire Department put mats down at the substation to contain the oil near the tank.

State could develop natural gas property tax rule - — A bill considered by the House Finance Committee on Monday afternoon would give the State Tax Department another try at developing a rule for determining tax assessments for natural gas-producing property in West Virginia. The committee recommended House Bill 4162 for passage, authorizing the State Tax Department to promulgate a legislative rule relating to valuation of property that produces oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids. It also states the legislative rule previously filed by the State Tax Department is not authorized. HB 4162 comes nearly one month since the West Virginia Legislature’s Rule-Making Review Committee moved to not approve an earlier legislative rule submitted by the State Tax Department last summer regarding assessments of natural-gas producing property. House Bill 2581, passed during the 2021 legislative session, required the State Tax Commissioner to develop a revised methodology to value oil and natural gas properties based on the fair market value based on a yield capitalization model applied to gross royalty payments for royalty interest to net proceeds once royalties and annual operating costs are subtracted from gross receipts. Instead, the emergency rule and the draft rule developed by the State Tax Department lowered the capitalization rate, eliminated the use of a three-year weighting, and left it up to the State Tax Department to use its own reasonable standard, which is undefined in the rule itself instead of the actual revenues and expenses of the producer. By not approving the agency-submitted rule in January, the emergency rule submitted by the State Tax Department remains in place for tax year 2022. Both the emergency rule and the final rule proved to be unpopular with lawmakers, county assessors, and representatives of the natural gas industry. The original version of last year’s HB 2581 would have resulted in a $9.1 million property tax revenue loss to county governments and county school systems, with $7 million of that cost hitting eight counties in the Northern Panhandle and North Central West Virginia.

Federal Court Rejects Mountain Valley Pipeline Permit - A federal court in Virginia has struck down a proposed permit for the Mountain Valley Pipeline, siding with environmental groups who said the project would threaten endangered wildlife and habitat.The pipeline would run more than 300 miles, transporting natural gas through eleven counties in West Virginia and neighboring states. The decision is the second rejection by a federal court over permitting for the pipeline's construction.Cindy Rank, chair of the extractive industries committee for the West Virginia Highlands Conservancy, one of several groups behind a lawsuit against the pipeline, said it would cross many of the state's headwater streams, both large and small."And the impact on both of those is going to be a tremendous amount of sedimentation," Rank explained. "Both from the construction sites on either side of the stream if you're going to drill under; and the actual in-stream degradation as you're blocking up one side and digging up another side to put that pipeline down."High levels of sediment can disrupt ecosystems, harm fish, and increase algae blooms. The interstate pipeline would be owned and operated by Mountain Valley Pipeline, LLC, a joint venture between several energy companies, and regulated by the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission. On its website, the company said it has provided funding to preserve land and remains dedicated to ongoing environmental preservation efforts.Rank argued a decision last December by the West Virginia Department of Environmental Protection (DEP) to issue awater quality certification failed to consider the pipeline's potentially harmful impacts to wildlife and the environment."Because we believe that certification is based on fallacies," Rank asserted. "DEP did not consider everything they needed to consider, before determining that this would not violate water-quality standards."She believes it would be a mistake to tie West Virginia into more fossil fuels, at a time when the nation is focused on creating a sustainable renewable-energy infrastructure."But now is the time to make those changes," Rank contended. "To solar, to wind, to other options that don't have as big a carbon footprint. And in fact these permits are supposed to take that kind of future impact into account." According to the Center for Biological Diversity, the pipeline has been required to pay millions of dollars in fines for more than 350 water-quality related violations in Virginia and West Virginia.

Future of Mountain Valley Pipeline clouded by court decisions -- For four years now, the half-mile hike from David Seriff’s front door to a ridgetop has offered the same vista: a 125-foot-wide trough plowed up one side of the mountain and down the other. Along the route, segments of an unfinished natural gas pipeline lie in a state of suspended animation. A federal appeals court recently rejected two government permits that are needed to complete a massive infrastructure project that opponents say is an environmental train wreck. On Friday morning, as he stood on the windswept ridge, Seriff’s outlook had not changed. “I think it’s another nail in the coffin,” he said of the 4th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals’ Jan. 25 reversal of a permit allowing the pipeline to pass through the Jefferson National Forest, which abuts his home north of Blacksburg. A second ruling last Thursday invalidated a finding that endangered species would not be jeopardized. “But we haven’t killed the beast.” If the complex regulatory and legal proceedings that have enveloped the 303-mile pipeline since 2018 could be reduced to a simple baseball analogy, Mountain Valley has two strikes against it. Three sets of key permits — the U.S. Forest Service’s approval for the buried pipe to cut through 3.5 miles of public woodlands, the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service’s finding that it would not destroy the habitats of endangered species, and the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers’ green light for Mountain Valley to cross streams and wetlands — have each been struck down twice by the Fourth Circuit. Mountain Valley is still swinging, though. “With total project work nearly 94% complete, Mountain Valley remains committed to meeting Americans’ energy needs and completing this pipeline,” company spokeswoman Natalie Cox wrote in an email Friday. “The MVP has undergone an unprecedented level of review, and rigorous analysis has repeatedly demonstrated that this project can in fact be built safely and responsibly. “ If the pipeline is to survive, government agencies must again rewrite permits to satisfy the Fourth Circuit — which has been perhaps the biggest challenge for developers since they first announced the project nearly a decade ago. “MVP is now highly unlikely to enter service in 2022, in our view, and the in-service date could be pushed into 2024 depending on how the court’s concerns are addressed,” Height Capital Markets, an investment banking firm that has followed the project, said in a written commentary last week. Of the two most recent decisions, the reversal of a biological opinion that found no jeopardy to two endangered fish — the Roanoke logperch and the candy darter — was seen as the more troubling for Mountain Valley. In its “non-legal expert” reading, Height said the Fourth Circuit appears to have extended the scope of the Endangered Species Act “to include a standard that would be difficult for most new infrastructure projects to meet.” Judge James Wynn wrote in a unanimous opinion from a three-judge panel that the Fish and Wildlife Service failed to adequately consider two things: the environmental baseline of the two imperiled fish and the cumulative effects of future events, such as climate change. “We recognize that this decision will further delay the completion of an already mostly finished pipeline, but the Endangered Species Act’s directive to federal agencies could not be clearer: halt and reverse the trend toward species extinction, whatever the cost,” the 40-page opinion concluded.

EQT Considers Selling More Shares in MVP Sponsor as Uncertainty Plagues Project -EQT Corp. now expects the Mountain Valley Pipeline (MVP) to come online in 2023, which could help narrow its natural gas price differentials and ease Appalachian takeaway constraints, but management acknowledged Thursday that the “specter of timing” continues to loom over the project. EQT has capacity booked on the system and a stake in MVP’s lead sponsor Equitrans Midstream Corp, which expects the project to start up this summer. Equitrans is reviewing that timeline after a federal appeals court last week vacated MVP’s Endangered Species Act authorizations and set back construction further. The 303-mile, 2 Bcf/d system would move more Appalachian natural gas from West Virginia to the Southeast. EQT’s fourth quarter investor presentation assumes a mid-2023 start-up for MVP.The pipeline has been dogged by regulatory delays. EQT CFO David Khani said during a call on Thursday to discuss year-end results that the company sold some of its shares in Equitrans during the fourth quarter and would consider selling more as the stock has declined. “We’ll be thoughtful in when we want to sell them again,” he said. EQT, the nation’s largest natural gas producer, reported higher average realized prices for 2021 of $2.50/Mcfe, up from $2.37 in the prior year. Those gains were offset by wider differentials, however, as pipeline constraints in the Northeast have dented the realizations of Appalachian producers. CEO Toby Rice said high energy prices in New England are the direct result of takeaway issues in Appalachia. He also cautioned that a rapid energy transition and resistance to natural gas projects in places like Europe have led to higher energy costs as well.. “It’s relevant to the people in the southeast United State. You need to understand there is a pipeline that is going to allow you to benefit from low cost, reliable, clean energy, and this is something that people need to be aware of, because what’s happening in Europe, what’s happening in New England, starts with the things right now happening to MVP.” Rice said his team has been working to get a stronger grip on what they can control. EQT reported steep losses on hedges last year as prices crept upward. However, Rice said the company has started implementing an updated hedging strategy that “provides downside protection, while leaving large-to-upside exposure to higher natural gas prices.” CFO David Khani noted that the company has paid off more debt, allowing it to “switch from a defensive hedging strategy with nearly all swaps to a more balanced approach” for 2023. The company has about 65% of its production volumes hedged for 2022 and another 42% hedged next year. EQT has layered on an overall floor of $3/Dth and a ceiling of $5/Dth in 2023. Management also guided for 2022 capital expenditures (capex) of $1.3-1.45 billion to produce between 1.95-2.05 Tcfe. Guidance was higher than last year’s capex of $1.1 billion and above Wall Street consensus. Inflationary pressures and incremental spending for a new well design are likely to push spending higher this year. Management said the company would phase in a “next generation” well design in 2022 that’s been under development for the past year. Preliminary results from those wells are expected by the end of the year. EQT produced 527 Bcfe in the fourth quarter across its Marcellus and Utica shale assets in Ohio, Pennsylvania and West Virginia. That’s up from 401 Bcfe in 4Q2020. Full year production was 1.9 Tcfe, up from 1.5 Tcfe in 2020. Rising volumes were the result of EQT’s acquisition of Alta Resources Development LLC and Appalachian assets it purchased from Chevron Corp.

Big Oil Has a Plan to Turn Appalachia Into Hydrogen Country - - The fossil fuel industry has a new plan for Appalachia: Blue hydrogen. An alliance between some of the largest corporations in the energy business—Shell, General Electric Gas Power, EQT Corporation, Equinor, Mitsubishi, US Steel and Marathon Petroleum—announced in a press release late last week their plan to create a “hydrogen industrial hub” in Ohio, Pennsylvania, and West Virginia. Their plan is to work with local stakeholders in the process, creating “a national model for sustainable energy and production systems.” The companies are putting their faith in an element that’s gained traction as an energy form in recent months, as the bipartisan infrastructure bill includes billions of dollars to build out clean hydrogen energy development. Hydrogen is also the most abundant element in the universe, existing in water, alcohols, and the like. Producing hydrogen as an energy source requires separating H atoms from other elements in the molecules where it naturally occurs (so, removing the H from H2O, for example). This is most commonly done commercially using steam to separate hydrogen from methane in natural gas; the finished product is referred to as ‘blue hydrogen,’ because it is emissions-free when burned, but is made with polluting sources of energy. Matt Kelso, manager of data and technology at the non-profit environmental watchdog FracTracker Alliance told Motherboard he sees the investment in hydrogen as “an extension of the existing polluting industries, by the exact same companies that are polluting our air, land, and water today.” “It is an excuse to keep drilling, obfuscated under a new identity, in an environment where there is increasing awareness of the damages that oil and gas extraction has caused to the region,” said Kelso, who lives in Pittsburgh, near southwest Pennsylvania’s oil and gas hub. The plan will capitalize on the region’s natural gas stores, largely trapped in the Marcellus Shale geologic formation, … Actual job numbers paled in comparison to those promised. A 2021 economic analysis by the non-profit think tank Ohio River Valley Institute found that jobs in Appalachian fracking counties climbed by merely 1.6 percent in the 2010s, compared to the 450,000 jobs that industry estimates from the early 2010s laid out. It also led to an oversupply of natural gas that the industry is now trying to offload (most notably by pushing plastics). The companies are positioning the move as an environmentally-sound one, or a way to achieve “aggressive net zero carbon goals,” . In fact, the fossil fuel industry more broadly has rallied around using carbon capture and sequestration as a technique to eliminate emissions from steam-methane reforming in the hydrogen production process. These emissions are substantial. An August, 2021 report out of Cornell and Stanford Universities found that the carbon footprint that comes with creating blue hydrogen is 20 percent larger than that of burning natural gas and coal for heat and 60 percent greater than burning diesel oil for the same purpose.Thus, carbon capture and storage—in which carbon dioxide is collected at the source of emissions and shot underground into stores—is essential to the fossil fuel companies’ plan if it is to be ‘net zero.’ But CCS comes with its own set of risks; pipelines carrying captured carbon have, in the past,exploded, and in the Marcellus Shale, where oil and gas wells, manyabandoned, dot the landscape, shooting it underground could prove geologically risky — pressure from two wells interacting could lead to explosions.)

 ‘There’s no closure’: 12 years after deadly Kleen Energy plant explosion, lawsuits drag on --On a snow-covered morning in February 2010, workers at the Kleen Energy plant under construction in Middletown were attempting to clear any remaining debris from the network of pipes by using the force of roughly 480,000 gallons of natural gas — enough to fill more than five Olympic swimming pools. What exactly caused the cloud of gas to ignite was never determined, though investigators would later point to several possible sources. The resulting explosion killed six workers and injured more than 50, while leading to new national standards that called on companies to stop the use of flammable natural gas in so-called “gas blows.” But as friends and family members of the victims along with the survivors marked the 12-year anniversary of the explosion on Monday, some are still engaged in a drawn-out legal battle seeking to hold the operators of the plant responsible for the disaster. “They’ve accepted no responsibility,” said Paula Dobratz, whose husband Raymond was among those killed in the powerful blast. “Think of how long they’ve had to fight also with their attorneys for 12 years to make sure that the rest of the people that have cases against them get nothing and still have to wait,” Dobratz said. “There’s no closure.” In the years following the explosion, New Haven attorney Joel Faxon has represented the Dobratz family along with roughly a dozen injured workers in a series of lawsuits related to the disaster. Most of their claims, Faxon said Monday, have proceeded through the courts as part “test cases” brought on the behalf of two injured workers. In December, the Connecticut Supreme Court dismissed the latest part of that effort, finding that the plant's operator, Kleen Energy Systems, lacked sufficient control over the independent contractor in charge of construction to be held liable for the explosion. The court’s decision follows its own earlier ruling in 2016, finding that the contractor, O&G Industries of Torrington, had already paid worker’s compensation benefits and was immune from having to pay further damages. The decisions have left the victims and their families with just two pending claims against Kleen Energy related to the inherent dangers of using flammable gas to clean piping equipment, Flaxon said.

New gas plant for electrical co-ops draws fire, highlights bumpy path to renewable energy -The natural gas-fired Magnolia Power Generating Station proposed for Iberville Parish would be an important cog in a plan by five rural Louisiana electrical cooperatives to provide reliable, cheap electricity through 2045, backers say. Its critics have concerns. State utility regulators recently gave their nod to thegroundbreaking 20-year power plan for the co-ops' 119,000 customers that, in addition to Magnolia Power, would count on renewable energy in a big way. Under the new deal, more than a third of the power would come from renewable sources, but local environmental groups say the plan isn't doing enough with renewables given the grave threat that global climate change poses for south Louisiana. Building a new $750 million fossil fuel-reliant power plant, these critics say, would contradict the central goal of Gov. John Bel Edwards' climate task force — net zero carbon emissions by 2050 — by permitting a new greenhouse gas emissions source and potentially locking in those emissions through 2045. Though the financial backers of the plant say it could be switched to hydrogen fuel that they argue would be carbon-free, these critics say the details of when and how that switch would happen are vague and not included in regulatory filings. "We're saying they should go all renewable, and, if they've got to go with this natural gas plant, they need to really seriously talk about reducing emissions from the plant and ... give us details about this idea that they're going to go 100% hydrogen, a fuel that no place in the world is currently doing 50%," said Darryl Malek-Wiley, a senior organizing representative for the Sierra Club in New Orleans. "It's a test plant, and we don't know what that involves." Under Edwards, Louisiana has proposed a rarity for the Deep South: a plan to cut the state's fossil fuel emissions either by eliminating those sources, offsetting them or storing them underground in a bid to slow global climate change. A scientific consensus has concluded that emissions from burning fossil fuels is sending more heat-trapping gases into the atmosphere. The gases are raising overall global temperatures and setting off dynamic changes to the climate, ice caps and glaciers that are inducing sea level rise, according to the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Much of south Louisiana could see 1.5 feet of sea level rise by 2050 and, in the worst case, up to 7 feet by 2100, the IPCC found.

Gas pipeline constraints showing along East Coast, manufacturers say - Limited capacity on natural gas pipelines is driving up gas prices for U.S. manufacturers, making it tougher to compete with low-cost manufactures abroad, the trade group Industrial Energy Consumers of America said in a letter to members of Congress Wednesday.The group, which represents U.S. manufacturing and industrial firms, said pipeline companies were putting strict limits on gas flows to maintain system stability. They said increased demand from natural gas-fired power plants and liquefied natural gas export facilities, centered along the Texas and Louisiana Gulf Coast, had resulted in less available pipeline capacity for manufacturing. "New pipeline capacity is not getting built," said Paul Cicio, president of IECA. "Inadequate pipeline capacity impacts existing manufacturing facilities and is detrimental to new investments and job creation." In his letter, Cicio specifically cited the use of what are known as operational flow orders along the Transco pipeline, which runs along the Gulf and Atlantic coastlines between Houston and New York. He said gas prices where the pipeline runs through Virginia and North Carolina averaged $11.37 per million British thermal units in January - more than double the U.S. benchmark Henry Hub - and at one point exceeded $21."We've seen some cold weather over the last several weeks, from Boston all the way down to Atlanta, and demand has been really high," said Scott Hallam, senior vice president at Williams Co., which operates Transco. "We're seeing differences in pricing regionally. Henry Hub is trading around $4 but you get to New York it's $10 to $15. In Boston it's $30. That's the challenging consuming sectors like manufacturing face." Under an operational flow order, buyers and sellers must tell pipeline companies nearly exactly how much gas they are transporting. If they're wrong, they must pay a steep financial penalty that can far exceed the cost of the gas they're buying.

The natural gas industry is ready for a net-zero future — as long as it still includes pipelines -Every minute, a new customer is hooked up to the natural gas system, says Karen Harbert, president of the American Gas Association, or AGA, the primary trade association for U.S. gas utilities. Today, that’s a major problem for the climate. Leaks are common throughout the natural gas system, from wells, pipelines, and appliances, and they release the powerful greenhouse gas methane into the atmosphere. When natural gas is ultimately burned in a heater or stove, carbon dioxide is emitted. All told, residential and commercial use of gas was responsible for about 10 percent of U.S. emissions in 2019. In colder parts of the country that rely primarily on natural gas heating, it makes up a much larger portion of emissions.But at a press conference on Tuesday, Harbert told reporters that the natural gas system can grow by 24 percent over the next three decades while at the same time becoming cleaner, and eventually not contribute to climate change at all. That’s the key finding of the AGA’s new “Net-Zero Emissions Opportunities for Gas Utilities” report.The report comes as many cities and states with climate goals are passing policies and creating incentives to staunch the tide of new natural gas users by encouraging people to install appliances that can run on clean electricity, like heat pumps and induction stoves. The shift threatens gas utilities’ bottom line, and the industry is pushing for solutions that utilize their existing infrastructure. The AGA report outlines four potential pathways that gas utilities could follow to zero out their emissions by 2050. All four would require a radical transformation of the industry, with the amount of energy supplied by fossil natural gas dropping from 12 quadrillion British thermal units today down to 1 quadrillion or less by mid-century. All the pathways feature a similar set of solutions but vary in how much they rely on each one. The AGA is proposing that utilities reduce their energy demand through energy efficiency programs; repurpose the existing pipeline system to deliver alternative gases that have a lower (but not zero) carbon footprint, like biogas or a blend of natural gas and hydrogen; build new pipelines in select areas that can carry pure hydrogen; and ramp up leak detection and pipe replacement programs to reduce methane emissions. The AGA also sees carbon capture playing a role to cut emissions from natural gas use in the industrial sector and in the production of hydrogen. All four of the industry group’s pathways rely on carbon capture and carbon offsets to eliminate the last 8 to 14 percent of gas utilities’ current emissions.

U.S. natgas drops over 7% on less cold forecasts, rising output (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures fell over 7% to a near two-week low on Monday, keeping volatility at record highs for a third day in a row, as output slowly recovers from last week's freezing weather and on forecasts for less cold and lower heating demand over the next two weeks than previously expected. Over the past month, trade in gas futures was the most volatile on record due in part to worries that Winter Storm Landon, which battered the eastern half of the country last week, would cut output and boost heating demand like last February's Winter Storm Uri. But Landon - with just one day below freezing in the West Texas Permian basin - was much weaker than Uri, which froze West Texas for eight days in a row. Uri killed more than 200 people in Texas, caused power and gas prices to soar to record highs in many parts of the country and left millions of homes and businesses without heat and power for days after gas pipes and power plants froze, cutting as much as 17.4 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) of gas output. Front-month gas futures for March delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) fell 34.0 cents, or 7.4%, to settle at $4.232 per million British thermal units, their lowest close since Jan. 25. During a period of record volatility for NYMEX futures ahead of Landon, U.S. speculators last week boosted their net long futures and options positions on the NYMEX and Intercontinental Exchanges to the highest since October 2021 by cutting their NYMEX shorts by the most in a week since February 2021, Data provider Refinitiv said output in the U.S. Lower 48 states fell from a record 97.3 bcfd in December to 93.9 bcfd in January and 89.9 bcfd so far in February after wells in several regions froze, including the Permian in Texas and New Mexico, the Bakken in North Dakota and the Appalachia in Pennsylvania, West Virginia and Ohio. With less cold expected, Refinitiv projected average U.S. gas demand, including exports, would drop from 130.3 bcfd this week to 119.8 bcfd next week. Those forecasts were lower than Refinitiv's outlook on Friday. The amount of gas flowing to U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plants was on track to rise from a monthly record of 12.4 bcfd in January to 12.7 bcfd in February as liquefaction trains at Venture Global LNG's Calcasieu Pass export plant in Louisiana enter service. A vessel arrived near Calcasieu on Monday and may be the first to pick up LNG from the plant.

U.S. natgas falls over 5% to 2-wk low on rising output, less cold (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures fell over 5% to a two-week low on Wednesday as output slowly increased after weeks of reductions from freezing wells and on forecasts for slightly less cold weather and lower heating demand than expected in the next two weeks. After weeks of near record volatility, front-month gas futures for March delivery fell 23.9 cents to settle at $4.009 per million British thermal units (mmBtu), their lowest close since Jan. 21. The American Public Power Association (APPA) industry trade group said it asked the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) to investigate natural gas trading activity on Jan. 27 when prices spiked by a record 46%. In the spot market, frigid weather and high heating demand in the U.S. Northeast have kept next-day power and gas prices in New York and New England at or near their highest levels since January 2018. Those high prices have made it economic for the region's power generators to burn lots of expensive oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) this winter. Data provider Refinitiv said output in the U.S. Lower 48 states fell from a record 97.3 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) in December to 93.9 bcfd in January and 90.8 bcfd in February after wells in several producing regions froze, including the Permian in Texas and New Mexico, the Bakken in North Dakota and the Appalachia in Pennsylvania, West Virginia and Ohio. Output has been rising almost daily since it dropped to 86.3 bcfd during a winter storm on Feb. 4, its lowest since February 2021. With the cold weather moderating, Refinitiv projected average U.S. gas demand, including exports, would drop from 130.0 bcfd this week to 122.6 bcfd next week. The forecast for this week was lower than Refinitiv's outlook on Tuesday. Traders said demand for U.S. LNG would remain strong so long as global gas prices keep trading well above U.S. futures as utilities around the world scramble for cargoes to meet surging demand in Asia and replenish low inventories in Europe - especially with the threat that Russia could invade Ukraine and cut gas supplies to Europe. Russia provides 35%-40% of Europe's gas supplies, totaling about 16.3 bcfd in 2021, according to analysts and U.S. energy data. Gas futures traded around $25 per mmBtu in Europe and Asia, compared with just $4 in the United States. But no matter how high global prices rise, the United States only has capacity to turn about 12.4 bcfd of gas into LNG. The rest of the gas flowing to LNG facilities is used to run plant equipment.

US natural gas storage fields draw more than 200 Bcf for fourth straight week | S&P Global Platts -- US natural gas storage volumes fell by more than 200 Bcf for the fourth week, but milder weather could slow withdrawals in the weeks ahead as the Henry Hub summer strip remains above $4/MMBtu. Storage fields withdrew 222 Bcf for the week ended Feb. 4, according to US Energy Information Administration data released Feb. 10. The pull was well within and barely above the 221 Bcf draw an S&P Global Platts survey of analysts expected. Responses to the survey were withdrawals in a 211-235 Bcf range. The drawdown outpaced the five-year average of 150 Bcf and the 174 Bcf pull in the corresponding week a year ago. Working gas inventories fell to 2.101 Tcf. US storage volumes now stand 441 Bcf, or 17.3%, below the year-ago level of 2.542 Tcf and 215 Bcf, or 9.3%, below the five-year average of 2.316 Tcf. As recently as mid-January, stocks sat at a slight surplus to the five-year average. The first two months of the heating season held mild weather and higher US production. But fundamentals changed significantly in early 2022 on a mix of lower US population-weighted temperatures, production declines, and strong LNG exports. The NYMEX Henry Hub March contract slid 3.5 cents to $3.97/MMBtu following the release of EIA's storage report. The upcoming summer strip fell 2.5 cents to average $4.04/MMBtu. Significantly stronger demand, coupled with lower production, has pulled hard on US storage inventories during January and into February, lowering expectations for the end-of-winter inventories to 1.65 Tcf, 10 Bcf below five-year levels. Tighter balances in January pushed the NYMEX Henry Hub 2022 curve to $4.03/MMBtu as of Jan. 25, 12 cents above the current Platts Analytics forecast of $3.91/MMBtu, from a low of $3.62/MMBtu Dec. 23. A Platts Analytics forecast calls for a 190 Bcf draw for the week ending Feb. 11, which would increase the deficit to the five-year average by 36 Bcf. However, an early forecast for the week ending Feb. 18 shows a pull about 30 Bcf smaller than average. Total US demand fell 5.6 Bcf/d Feb. 9 to 113.5 Bcf/d. US residential-commercial demand fell 4 Bcf/d while US power burn fell 1.7 Bcf/d as average US population-weighted temperatures climbed nearly 2 degrees. The Rockies was the only region to see an increase in res-comm demand, up 0.4 Bcf/d, as population-weighted temperatures fell more than 4 degrees in the region. Power burn declines were concentrated in the Southeast, which was down 1 Bcf/d. The Upper Midwest and the Northeast each saw a 300 MMcf/d decline in power burn. Total US supply was flat on a net basis, as a 700 MMcf/d increase in US production was offset by a 500 MMcf/d decline in Canadian imports and a 200 MMcf/d decline in LNG imports.

Natural Gas Futures Extend Losses as Storage Deficits Seen Stalling; Northeast Cash Surges on Storm - Roses are red and so were natural gas futures on Friday as selling action continued along the Nymex curve. A steadily warming February forecast proved too much for bulls to overcome, with the rising temperatures likely preventing a much deeper drawdown of storage inventories heading toward the end of the traditional withdrawal season. The March Nymex contract closed out the week at $3.941/MMBtu, off 1.8 cents on the day. April slipped only eight-tenths of a cent to $3.935. Spot gas prices, however, managed to move back into the black as a strong winter storm moved into the Lower 48. Led by $10-plus gains in the Northeast, NGI’s Spot Gas National Avg. climbed 94.0 cents to $4.630. The latest cold blast stretching across the eastern half of the country is expected to give a major jolt to gas consumption after a multi-day period of springlike weather and tepid heating demand. Forecasters expected the winter storm to pack a punch from the Mid-Atlantic to New England, sending temperatures tumbling and setting the stage for several inches of snow. However, after climbing close to 60 degrees in the region on Saturday, AccuWeather said the recent warmth may help to limit accumulations when snow begins to fall on Saturday night and into Sunday. Since the air could take some time to cool, it is possible that rain may be part of the wintry mix. AccuWeather meteorologists expected up to three inches of snow to fall from the West Virginia and North Carolina mountains, northeastward through much of Delaware, Maryland and Virginia. The snow then is forecast to move into central and southern New Jersey, Long Island, New York and southeastern New England. There also could be a pocket of moderate snow – up to six inches – in parts of Virginia. The frosty air was expected to push well into the southern United States, too, with the coldest day expected to be Monday before a warmup begins midweek. Although another cold shot is expected the following weekend (Feb. 18-20), the long-range weather data show increasing odds that the coldest winter weather is now in the rearview mirror.

Bechtel To Start Construction Of $30B Driftwood LNG Plant In April - U.S. LNG project developer Tellurian has stated that the construction of its Driftwood LNG export facility will begin in April 2022. The total cost of the project, designed to produce 27.6 million tons per annum of LNG, is near $30 billion while $12 billion are needed just to complete Phase 1 of the Driftwood LNG facility, which will be located on the Calcasieu River, south of Lake Charles, Louisiana, and it will only take several years to pay this cost back. Driftwood already has a $15.5 billion turnkey engineering, procurement, and construction contract with Bechtel in place that guarantees cost, performance, and schedule. The dal was agreed back in 2017. The first phase will consist of two plants, each with up to four liquefaction trains. According to Tellurian, this will create about 400 direct jobs and 6,500 construction jobs. Tellurian has already invested around $150 million and purchased some 1,000 acres of real estate ensuring a construction site for the project. Each Driftwood LNG plant is expected to have up to four liquefication trains, for a total design capacity of as much as 27.6M mt/year. The facility will have an annual capacity of 550 bcf once Phase 1 is complete. The first delivery could take place in 2026. Charif Souki, executive chairman of Tellurian and frequently referred to as 'the Godfather of LNG', said in a YouTube video the company posted on its website that it signed 10-year deals with Shell, Guvnor, and Vitol for 9 million tons of gas and that this justified beginning work on the first phase of the scheme. He confirmed that construction would start in April 'as promised.' "We have access to enough capital to make sure we can do the first year of construction," Souki said. He added that Tellurian was attempting to arrange financing with 45 different lenders, which was "like herding cats". "It is critical to get it right for the value of the shareholder, so we're not going to rush through that process," Souki said in his latest public message. "We're very comfortable starting the construction program without being completely sure that the financing will be put in place." "We now have a number of banks that are willing to consider a project like this. We feel very confident and comfortable that this will be done," he concluded.

Growing U.S. LNG Output Has Influenced Global Logistics, Pricing - The first wave of LNG projects has done more than just catapult the U.S. to the top tier of LNG exporters, it has reshaped markets, helped move LNG closer to being a true global commodity, and spurred changes in everything from ship sizes and routes to contract types and pricing formulas. Talk about having an impact! And, with new projects still coming online in the U.S. and final investment decisions expected on new terminals and expansions this year, the U.S. LNG industry’s effect on the global gas trade is sure to grow. In today’s RBN blog, we look at the practical impacts that have accompanied growing U.S. production with an emphasis on logistics and, perhaps most important, the changes to LNG pricing in Asia. U.S. LNG export growth has exceeded that of any other nation over the past few years, moving from zero at the start of 2016 to more than 80 million tons per annum (MMtpa; 10.6 Bcf/d) with Venture Global’s Calcasieu Pass facility about to load its first cargo, as we described in Part 1 of this blog series. In Figure 1 below, you can see that the U.S. (blue segments) has been on a tear, shifting from minor player to global leader in only six years. Meanwhile, of the other two major LNG-producing nations, Qatar’s LNG exports (gray segments) have remained close to static since the mid-2010s (though it’s planning a big expansion by mid-decade — see our recent blog on that), and Australia (orange segments), up until this year, had been a step ahead of the U.S. in adding new capacity. The U.S.’s quick rise has had a number of significant effects on everything from the size of the global LNG carrier fleet to how the expanded Panama Canal is being used and — as we’ll get to in a minute — how LNG is priced. We’ll discuss these one by one. The rise of U.S. LNG has had a significant impact on shipping, one that has largely gone unnoticed by casual observers. U.S. projects are located farther from the major consuming markets in Asia than their primary competitors (Qatar and Australia), which has resulted in the need for a lot of new shipping capacity to move the produced volumes — the longer the voyage, the more time that vessel is unavailable for other shipments. However, it hasn’t been an easy transition to a higher-volume era. In the early 2010s, when project sponsors such as Cheniere announced their intentions to produce LNG in the U.S., independent shipowners including Golar, Thenamaris, GasLog, and Cardiff placed speculative orders for new LNG carriers with capacities of 155,000-165,000 cubic meters (cm). But shipowners misjudged the situation and struggled to find employment for vessels in a market of depressed charter rates, which led to the formation of the “Cool Pool” in August 2015, whereby GasLog, Golar, and Dynagas pooled 14 of their new LNG carriers to seek spot-market employment. Shipowner hopes that offtakers of U.S. LNG would offer long-term employment of their new vessels also proved to be overly optimistic as LNG buyers JERA, Mitsui, Mitsubishi, and Kogas opted instead to commission and charter newbuild vessels from other shipowners with whom they had longstanding relationships. Over the longer term, though, the willingness of the independent owners to invest in speculative vessels has proved to be a boon to the LNG market and reflects another element of LNG’s gradual commoditization: commodity markets are characterized by ready access to transportation.

Increased U.S. natural gas exports = higher U.S. prices: Who knew? -- Few people noticed when energy reporters wrote in early January that the United States had become the world's largest exporter of liquefied natural gas (LNG). Now, a group of U.S. senators has noticed and say those exports may be driving up heating and electricity costs for their constituents. In a letter to the secretary of energy, they are asking the secretary "to conduct a review of LNG exports and their impact on domestic prices and the public interest, and develop a plan to ensure natural gas remains affordable for American households." Who knew that exporting natural gas from American gas fields would raise natural gas prices at home? Well, the natural gas industry certainly knew. In the last decade, the industry was smarting under persistent low prices as it continually overproduced gas into a flooded domestic market. It pushed for and succeeded in relaxing rules for exports and expedited approvals of new export cargoes and facilities. The U.S. Department of Energy still has de facto control over most natural gas exports. But policy in the last five years has been to assist and encourage expansion of those exports. The industry has always contended that there would be plenty of gas to go around because of the extraordinary growth in gas production from deep shale deposits that new technology can now extract. But the revolution seems to have stalled as marketed U.S. natural gas production has hit a plateau around 3 trillion cubic feet per month since late 2018. Prices have not been favorable until recently, and investors have fled the industry as they realized that negative free cash flows for practically the entire previous decade were not likely to turn around. That has meant less money for drilling with a predictable result: stagnant production. So, stagnant production has now collided with growing LNG exports. The latest numbers available from November 2021 show that LNG exports now constitute 9.7 percent of all U.S. marketed production. As recently as November 2015 those exports constituted a tiny 13/100ths of a percent of total domestic production. The raw numbers show an increase from a little under 3 billion cubic feet of LNG exports for November 2015 to 306 billion for November 2021. The industry makes the point that practically everything else America produces can be exported freely and so is priced based on world prices. Why then should natural gas be singled out? Shouldn't natural gas producers have the same opportunity to sell their product to whomever they choose as practically every other American business does? If U.S. natural gas prices continue upward, look for this battle between consumers and producers of natural gas to escalate. The U.S. Congress has the power to intervene and rein in exports if it chooses. That fact may become relevant later in the year when voters who heat their homes with natural gas and buy electricity from gas-fired utilities decide who should represent them in Washington.

 API: Don’t constrain LNG exports; bolster cold-weather states’ infrastructure Ten 10 U.S. senators from cold-weather states wrote to U.S. Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm, expressing concern about getting affordable, reliable natural gas for their constituents’ homes and businesses in the dead of winter, the American Petroleum Institute said in an Energy Tomorrow Update on LinkedIn. Instead of supporting increased natural gas production and the construction of natural gas pipelines, processing stations, power plants and other infrastructure, the senators’ proposed solution is to go after U.S. exports of liquefied natural gas (LNG), which is especially troubling with the Russia-Ukraine situation and energy supply challenges across Europe. Representing Maine, Massachusetts, Vermont, Connecticut, Rhode Island, Michigan and Minnesota, the senators asked Granholm to review U.S. LNG exports and their impact on domestic prices. In the meantime, they want Granholm to consider halting permit approvals for U.S. LNG export facilities. Notably, seven of the 10 senators represent New England states, where nearly every winter families there get hit in their wallets because of constrained natural gas supplies amid high demand. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) just reported that the benchmark price for natural gas in New England during January was the highest monthly average price since February 2014. The problem is relatively simple: New England doesn’t have enough natural gas infrastructure to meet winter natural gas demand, either for heat or electricity generation, and hardship has resulted. The sad twist to New England’s tale is that abundant natural gas is practically next door in Pennsylvania, sitting atop the Marcellus shale. Unfortunately for New Englanders, this has been their plight for several years, as state and local leaders and several communities have blocked additional infrastructure needed to help meet demand. In 2022, it’s a case of same tune, different verse. Michael Giaimo, API Northeast Region director, for CommonWealth Magazine: New England sits a few hundred miles away from one of the most prolific natural gas producing-regions in the world, yet anti-consumer policies at the cost of pragmatism have blocked construction of critical pipeline infrastructure needed to transport domestically produced natural gas to markets here. So, we as a region are forced to turn to Russia, Trinidad and Tobago, and other places across the globe. … All the constraints and complaints about pipeline construction and natural gas generation have done nothing to decrease demand for power, which is expected to continue to rise. Instead of focusing on this recurring infrastructure/supply problem that is impacting their constituents, the senators want Granholm to consider halting approvals for LNG export facilities. And then the question is whether at some point the group might push for reducing or stopping LNG exports themselves.

36 Gallons Of Crude Oil Spilled From Pipeline Near Century -About 36 gallons of crude oil were spilled during an incident east-northeast of Century Sunday morning. According to a Florida Department of Environmental Protection notice, a release occurred at 6:33 a.m. on a St. Regis Gas Treating Facility production line located in Escambia County, Florida. An employee saw steam release from the site and notified the field lead and control room senior operator, and the production line was isolated by 7:10 a.m. A vacuum truck was called to remove any fluids. According to the FDEP notice, about 136.2 barrels of produced water and rainwater mix and 36 gallons of crude oil were recovered. Spill booms were placed at the release site. The line will be contained and flushed with fresh water in advance of inspection and repairs. All impacted soil will be removed and disposed of at an approved landfill.

Pipeline's safeguards not working in Louisiana diesel spill (AP) — A corroded pipeline that ruptured and spilled 350,000 gallons (1.6 million liters) of diesel fuel into a New Orleans area wetland did not have a fully functioning leak detection system at the time, according to federal records, which also show the spill was larger than previously reported. Two of three components of a leak detection system for the 16-inch (40-centimeter) pipeline did not issue alarms as they were supposed to when it broke just east of New Orleans on Dec. 27, 2021, Collins Pipeline Company disclosed in an accident report submitted to federal regulators. The third part of the system worked as designed and issued an alarm, according to the report. It was not clear from the information provided by the company when that alarm went off or if the parts of the system that malfunctioned caused any delay in its response. Quickly detecting pipeline ruptures is crucial to containing environmental damage. Yet coming up with systems that can do so reliably has been a longstanding challenge for the industry. Collins, a Mississippi-based subsidiary of Parsippany, New Jersey-based PBF Energy Inc., reported the spill to authorities about eight hours after workers shut down the 42-year-old Meraux Pipeline a few miles from the company’s refinery in Chalmette. Company personnel shut it off when they noticed a pressure change and flow meter measurements indicated a problem, according to federal records. The company’s report said the spill detection system did not help identify the spill.Collins initially estimated that as few as 8,400 gallons (38,200 liters) of diesel were released, then updated that days later to just over 300,000 gallons (1.4 million liters). On Jan. 27, the company increased its estimate yet again, to 350,000 gallons, the accident report shows. The diesel flowed into two man-made ponds and killed thousands of fish and dozens of birds, turtles, alligators and other animals. Most of the fuel was recovered but the accident caused an estimated $3.8 million in property damages, according to the company.

Documents show major gaps in Texas gas inspections - Oil and gas regulators are assuring Texans the natural gas system will keep functioning this winter, saying they’ve done more than 3,000 inspections to check on it. What they’re not saying is many of those inspections found that gas production and transmission facilities can’t guarantee they’re prepared for another hard freeze. For about 40 percent of the pipeline and storage sites Texas deems critical, operators hadn’t conducted a winterization test or company officials didn’t know if one had been performed, according to records from the state Railroad Commission obtained under a Public Information Act request. State inspectors also didn’t actually visit dozens of sites because of “time constraints,” the records show. One gas-fired plant was forced to shut down a month after state inspectors said its supply pipelines had passed an inspection, records show. In other cases, inspectors appear to have overlooked important information. Critics said there’s an underlying problem — the Railroad Commission has yet to write winterization standards for gas wells, pipelines and storage facilities. The lack of clear guidelines makes it hard to judge the effectiveness of the commission’s inspection campaign, said Luke Metzger, executive director of Environment Texas. “I worry that might be more of a public relations stunt than a credible regulatory effort,” Metzger said in an interview. The Railroad Commission, which despite its name oversees the state’s gas system, said the inspection records are just a snapshot of conditions, and that companies have made progress since the reports were filed. “In the fall, some of the sites had yet to finish winterizing or test winterization because they were coming off summer operations,” Andrew Keese, a commission spokesperson, said in a statement. During last February’s power crisis and winter storm, gas-fueled generators were the largest source of unavailable capacity on Texas’ main power grid. And parts of the gas system were forced to shut down because of a lack of electricity. More than 4 million homes and businesses lost power in Texas, many of them for days, and over 240 deaths were linked to the winter storm, according to a state tally. Damage has been estimated at more than $100 billion.

Permian oil output to grow for several years, Plains All American CEO says— Crude oil production from the prolific Permian basin of West Texas has topped estimates and may grow by an annual rate of 600,000 barrels a day over the next several years, according to pipeline giant Plains All American Pipeline LP. “North American energy supply will continue to play a key role in meeting global demand growth, and the Permian is positioned to drive a vast majority of U.S. production growth,” Chief Executive Officer Willie Chiang said Wednesday in a conference call with analysts. The Houston-based company said crude-oil volumes transported on its Permian pipeline system jumped 26% in the fourth quarter from a year earlier, exceeding analysts’ estimates. Plains All American, which owns 18,700 miles of conduits across the U.S. and Canada, expects to move nearly 5.3 million barrels a day of oil in the Permian this year, up 19% from last year.

This could be when shale driller discipline cracks, Citi warns— Oil executives tempted by the prospect of the highest crude prices in seven years are showing all the signs of abandoning pledges to hold the line on drilling budgets, Citigroup Inc. said. U.S. shale explorers are poised to boost spending by almost 40% this year, based on comments and plans revealed during recent earnings presentations, Citi analyst Scott Gruber wrote in a note to investors on Monday. That’s up from the bank’s previous call for a 30% rise. Overseas budgets are seen jumping by 32% from the old forecast of 17%. “E&P managements will be hard pressed to abandon their commitments,” Gruber wrote. “But we foresee an increasing number beginning to lean into the market as the challenge of managing supply in a market as disaggregated as the global oil market becomes increasingly clear.” U.S. companies probably will lift domestic daily crude production by as much as 1 million barrels this year, according to various analysts. American oil prices have climbed 21% this year to more than $90 a barrel, extending last year’s 55% advance. 12:21 PM

Earthquakes in Texas doubled in 2021 due to oil companies' water injections | The Texas Tribune — One local said it sounded like a pickup truck had rammed into the side of their house. Another said it sounded like the air conditioner fell off the roof. A third compared the experience to getting off of a rollercoaster, dizzy and a bit shaky. “In the hardest ones we’ve experienced, there is a bunch of shaking, and the pictures shook off the walls,” said Christina Bock, 45, who lives in Gardendale, a rural community north of Odessa in the heart of West Texas oil and gas country. Earthquakes have dislodged her deck from the house and left cracks in her walls, she said. “You’ll hear a loud bang. If you’re inside, you assume it’s a car wreck or that something exploded outside,” said Bock, a paralegal who has lived in Gardendale for 13 years. “The scary thing is that they are happening pretty much daily at this point.” More than 200 earthquakes of 3 magnitude and greater shook Texans in 2021, more than double the 98 recorded in 2020, according to a Texas Tribune analysis of state data maintained by the Bureau of Economic Geology at the University of Texas at Austin. The record-setting seismic activity is largely concentrated in West Texas’ Permian Basin, the most productive oil and gas region in the state. Scientific studies show that the spike in earthquakes is almost certainly a consequence of disposing huge quantities of contaminated, salty water deep underground — a common practice by oil companies at the end of the hydraulic fracturing process that can awaken dormant fault lines. During hydraulic fracking, oil companies shoot a mixture of fluids and sand through ancient shale formations, fracturing the rock to free the flow of oil. But oil isn’t the only thing that’s been trapped underground for millions of years: Between three and six barrels of salty, polluted water also come up to the surface with every barrel of oil. The cheapest, and most commonly used, way to dispose of this “produced water” is to drill another well and inject it into porous rock formations deep underground. For years, oil companies have loaded those formations with hundreds of millions of gallons of the black watery mixture — which contains a slurry of minerals, oil and chemicals used in fracking — every day, slowly increasing the pressure on ancient fault lines. An analysis by Rystad Energy provided to The Texas Tribune found that the amount of wastewater injected underground in the Permian Basin quadrupled in a decade, from 54 billion gallons in 2011 to 217 billion gallons last year. In a 2021 study published in the Journal of Geophysical Research, scientists at the U.S. Geological Survey and the University of Texas found that the vast majority of seismicity since 2000 near Pecos — a city roughly 100 miles southwest of Midland — was likely triggered by increased wastewater disposal. State regulators, too, have found that an increase in seismic activity most likely occurs as a consequence of saltwater disposal. “The cumulative volumes [of water] increase the pressure, and that is the force that triggers the fault to slip,” said Alexandros Savvaidis, a research scientist at the Bureau of Economic Geology at UT-Austin. The result is that communities like Gardendale, where Bock lives, as well as the bustling cities of Odessa and Midland — which many oilfield workers, engineers and service workers call home — are experiencing not only more frequent earthquakes, but stronger ones.

Shaken by fracking quakes, Texas is forced to act - "You get used to it. The walls shake," says Sam, a resident of Midland, a town in west Texas where hydraulic fracturing for oil and gas—known as "fracking"—is causing more and more earthquakes. "Then another tremor comes a second later, like a truck passing nearby," said the 44-year-old, who did not wish to disclose his last name. Echoing his words, three quakes rocked the ground in just one day on February 4. This region of the Permian Basin, from which 40 percent of US oil and 15 percent of its gas are extracted, experienced nine earthquakes greater than three-magnitude in 2019, 51 in 2020 and 176 in 2021, according to market intelligence firm Sourcenergy. What causes earthquakes is not fracking itself, but injecting the wastewater into wells. The Railroad Commission of Texas, which regulates oil activities, has had to impose new rules on water disposal. Drilling companies must deal with huge quantities of water that come up when fracking—water makes up about 80 percent of the fluid pumped out of the ground. Almost 4,000 active wells have been drilled specifically to collect the wastewater in the Permian Basin. "As you get more and more water getting pumped into the ground... you're filling up these spaces," said Joshua Adler, CEO of Sourcenergy, which helps oil companies improve water management. "In some of these spaces, you got these cracks or fault lines. You're pushing it harder and harder, and maybe you hit that fault line and maybe it makes it slip and that's an earthquake." Since 2012, daily oil production have multiplied five-fold in the Permian Basin, so water injections into wells has also multiplied. "In Oklahoma, they basically kind of dragged their feet for years and denied that there was any problem" when earthquakes increased in the 2010s, Adler said. In Texas, as soon as earthquakes increased, the Railroad Commission started to study the issue, he said. "They didn't wait until it was a giant problem." Between September and January, it defined three geographical areas at risk. In the most populous, Gardendale, where the cities of Midland and Odessa are located, it ordered the suspension of deep injections of water into seven wells in mid-December. After four more earthquakes of magnitudes between 3.1 and 3.7, it extended the measure to 26 more wells. The regulator is waiting for industry proposals in the two other areas identified, Stanton and Northern Culberson-Reeves. But Neta Rhyne, 72, who lives near Northern Culberson-Reeves, believes that "it's like asking the fox to guard the chicken coop." Last week, she again asked the Railroad Commission, as she has been doing since 2016, for a hearing following new requests to drill water disposal wells in her region. She fears an earthquake could affect the source of one of the largest natural spring-fed pools in the world, a stone's throw from her home in Balmorhea Nature Park, Toyahvale. The Texas Parks Department declined to respond to AFP's questions, but press officer Stephanie Salinas Garcia acknowledged "concerns that earthquakes could affect the spring system."

These 23 year-old Texans made $4 million last year mining bitcoin off flare gas from oil drilling — When Brent Whitehead and Matt Lohstroh were sophomores at Texas A&M University, they decided to get into the business of mining bitcoin on the oil fields of East Texas. The year was 2019, and at the time, the idea of oil and gas companies joining forces with bitcoin miners was considered both avant-garde — and a major taboo. But Whitehead, an engineer hailing from a family with a long history in oil and gas production, and Lohstroh, a finance major with a bitcoin obsession, ignored the skeptics, and sunk all the cash they had earned from their high school side gigs in lawn care and landscaping into Giga Energy Solutions, a company that mints bitcoin from stranded natural gas. For years, oil and gas companies have struggled with the problem of what to do when they accidentally hit a natural gas formation while drilling for oil. Whereas oil can easily be trucked out to a remote destination, gas delivery requires a pipeline. If a drilling site is right next door to a pipeline, they chuck the gas in and take whatever cash the buyer on the other end is willing to pay that day. But if it's 20 miles from a pipeline, drillers often burn it off, or flare it. That is why you will typically see flames rising from oil fields. Beyond the environmental implications of flare gas, drillers are also, in effect, burning cash. To these two 23-year-old Aggie alums, it was a big problem with an obvious solution. Giga places a shipping container full of thousands of bitcoin miners on an oil well, then diverts the natural gas into generators, which convert the gas into electricity that is then used to power the miners. The process reduces CO2-equivalent emissions by about 63% compared to continued flaring, according to research from Denver-based Crusoe Energy Systems. "Growing up, I always saw flares, just being in the oil and gas industry. I knew how wasteful it was," Whitehead told CNBC on the sidelines of the North American Prospect Expo summit in Houston, a flagship event for the industry. "It's a new way to not only lower emissions but to monetize gas." Whitehead tells CNBC they have signed deals with more than 20 oil and gas companies, four of which are publicly traded. Giga also says they're also in talks with sovereign wealth funds, and they are expanding, fast. Giga's 11-person team is adding another six employees this month. Lohstroh and Whitehead are part of a growing movement of people placing big bets on the potential for bitcoin mining to transform the economics of the energy industry.

What states stand to gain if Biden hikes oil and gas royalty rates - For a president who campaigned on the promise to end new oil and gas leasing on public land, Joe Biden has been dragging his feet, to say the least. A long-anticipated government report on the federal oil and gas leasing program that was released last November did not indicate any end in sight. And while the Biden administration has yet to auction off any new leases on public land, it has approved almost 900 more drilling permits than former President Donald Trump did during his first year in office, according to a recent analysis. But last week an update popped up on the Interior Department’s website that showed Biden might be ready to make a change to the oil and gas leasing program that no other administration has dared to make for the last 100 years: increase royalty rates. The notice, which was published by accident and quickly removed from the site, said the agency would increase the royalty rate on leases sold in upcoming auctions from 12.5 percent of the value of the oil or gas produced to 18.75 percent, according to E&E News.That would bring royalty rates for federal leases in line with those for oil and gas leases on state-owned lands, which range from 16.6 percent to a whopping 25 percent in Texas. Increasing the federal rate could be a boon for state governments, which receive half of the royalty revenue the federal government takes in for leases in their borders and often rely on it to fund schools, public health programs, and critical infrastructure. That’s the message of a new report from the nonprofit watchdog organization Accountable.US, which calculated just how much states are being shortchanged by the outdated federal royalty rate. It found that in 2019, Western states could have taken in additional $1.58 billion if the royalty rate had been 20 percent instead of 12.5. The worst affected state, New Mexico, missed out on $804 million in potential revenue in 2019, or about 13 percent of its budget that year.

As oil nears $100 a barrel, U.S. drillers get busy in costly shale basins --As U.S. oil rises toward $100 a barrel (bbl), producers in some high-cost shale basins are buying properties and adding rigs and frack crews in places that fell silent when prices crashed early in the pandemic two years ago.Benchmark U.S. prices last week topped $93/bbl, up around 65% in the last 52 weeks and the highest since 2014. U.S. producers are cranking up spending at double-digit rates as fuel demand has soared and fears have waned that OPEC will again punish them by flooding the market with crude that is cheaper to produce. Some executives say current high prices and relatively low service costs make production economics the best in years. Firms are buying U.S. oil, pipeline and gas processing rivals in a bet that higher prices will more than cover rising costs of labor and equipment."Drilling economics today are better than they’ve ever been since the shale revolution started," Chris Wright, CEO of Liberty Oilfield Services, said.Closely held companies, in particular, are accelerating output, he added. New activity is stirring in secondary oilfields like Colorado's DJ Basin, Wyoming's Powder River, Louisiana's Haynesville and North Dakota's Bakken shale, which last year lost its spot as the second largest U.S. oil producing region. Spending budgets among U.S. independent producers are up 13% over a year ago, according to analysts at Cowen. Among secondary fields, the natural gas-rich Haynesville is among the only to fully recover output from the 2020 oil-price crash. Other shale fields, including the second-largest producing oilfield, are adding to holdings and rigs. "When you look at the oil prices in the Bakken, the prompt price is close to $90 a barrel," Bob Phillips, CEO of energy pipeline company Crestwood Equity Partners, said. "That doesn't happen very often." Last week, Crestwood completed a $1.8 billion deal to purchase Oasis Midstream Partners' oil, gas and gas-processing assets in North Dakota and Texas as part of a plan to become a top-three midstream operator in the Bakken, Powder River and Permian shale fields.Shale dealmaking that leads to more output could accelerate this year, said Andrew Dittmar, who specializes in merger and acquisitions for energy tech firm Enverus. In Wyoming's Powder River oilfield, Continental Resources has made several acquisitions since last year, the latest from Chesapeake Energy. That purchase could revive the area's output, said Crestwood's Phillips. Continental is scheduled to release its fourth-quarter results next week and has not yet highlighted its 2022 budget or plan, a spokesperson said.

Oil and Gas Companies Routinely Frack With “Trade Secret” Chemicals, Including PFAS - Peggy Tibbetts stopped drinking the tap water in her home in Silt, Colorado, 13 years ago. Silt, located in Garfield County, is surrounded by oil and gas wells; in every direction, there is a well pad within just a few miles of Tibbetts’s home. The town gets its water from the Colorado River, downstream from the West Divide Creek tributary, where two well pads blew up in 2004, causing a benzene seep. When Tibbetts’s health began to deteriorate in 2013, she suspected the toxic air emissions from fracking operations were the cause. “We’ve always known that there are dangerous chemicals being used, but we weren’t allowed to know what they are,” she told Sierra.Oil and gas companies routinely withhold from regulators and the public the identities of chemicals used in drilling and fracking operations by claiming that the names of those chemicals are a trade secret. Now, a report by Physicians for Social Responsibility (PSR) sheds new light on how residents like Tibbetts are potentially being exposed to dangerous chemicals—including PFAS, proven carcinogens—without their knowledge. The report provides a more precise picture of how much PFAS have been used in the past 10 years in Colorado, though the actual numbers could be much greater. According to the report, PFAS chemicals were used in at least 10 Colorado counties. In Weld County alone, researchers determined that at least 7,840 pounds of PTFE, also known as Teflon, were used in oil and gas operations there. That number, though, could be a vast undercount of the actual total. In Colorado, well operators are required to disclose chemical use in the fracking process but have the option to shield the precise identity of those chemicals as a “trade secret.” What’s more, operators are not required to disclose the chemicals they use in drilling (the process that precedes fracking). In Weld and Garfield Counties, well operators shielded the identities of chemicals as a “trade secret” in a total of 11,289 wells; a staggering 368 million pounds of unidentified chemicals designated as “trade secret” were used in Weld County alone from 2011 to 2021. In Garfield, 16 million pounds of non-identified chemicals were used.PFAS is a class of what are known as “forever” chemicals because they do not break down in the environment or the human body. And they are as dangerous as they are persistent. Exposure to PFAS chemicals can lead to a wide spectrum of health impacts, including kidney and testicular cancer, as well as childhood leukemia, thyroid disease, high cholesterol, and pre-eclampsia. One measuring cup of PFOA, a class of PFAS used to make industrial and household products such as grease-resistant cookware, would be enough to contaminate 8 billion gallons of water—about as much water as New York City uses in a six-day period. Michigan determined that the maximum allowable level of PFOA in drinking water should be no more than 8 parts per trillion. Meanwhile in Colorado, according to PSR researchers, nearly 9,000 pounds of PTFE were used in oil and gas drilling and fracking over the past decade, with a total of 414 million pounds of chemicals left unidentified as “trade secret.”;

‘They criminalize us’: how felony charges are weaponized against pipeline protesters -Last summer Sabine von Mering, a professor of German at Brandeis University, drove more than 1,500 miles from Boston to Minneapolis to protest against the replacement of the Line 3 oil pipeline that stretches from Canada’s tar sands down to Minnesota.Along with another protester, she locked herself to a semi-truck in the middle of a roadway, according to a filed court brief, as a means of peaceful resistance. But when she was arrested, she was charged with a serious crime: felony theft, which carries up to five years in prison.“It’s very scary that they criminalize us like that, and to face jail time,” said Von Mering, 54, of her June arrest. “But what can I do? I feel responsible to my kids and future generations.”The felony charges come as more than a dozen states have passed laws to criminalize fossil fuel protests, and as the federal government has ramped up its own tactics for surveilling and penalizing protesters.Von Mering is one of nearly 900 protesters who were arrested in Minnesota for protesting against the pipeline’s construction, with the vast majority of arrests taking place during the summer of 2021, and one of dozens facing felony charges. Construction on the Line 3 pipeline was finalized in October 2021 and carries 760,000 barrels of oil per day across northern Minnesota. But its construction for years has stoked fierce protests and legal challenges, led by Indigenous activists in northern Minnesota who worried about potential impacts of oil spills and the pipeline’s threat to treaty rights to gather wild rice. While most of the arrests have led to misdemeanor or gross misdemeanor charges for crimes including “disturbing the peace” and “trespassing”, felony charges like Von Mering’s mean protesters are facing years of jail time. Legal advocates say that in Minnesota the elevated charges are a novel tactic to challenge protest actions against pipeline construction. They see them as furthering evidence of close ties between Minnesota’s government and the fossil fuel industry. It follows reporting by the Guardian that the Canadian pipeline company Enbridge, which is building Line 3, reimbursed Minnesota’s police department $2.4m for time spent arresting protesters and on equipment including ballistic helmets. Experts say the reimbursement strategy for arrests is a new technique in both Minnesota and across the US, and there’s concern it can be replicated.

Whiting to Expand Operated Bakken Footprint, Pursue Modest Growth in 2022 - Whiting Petroleum Corp. has two agreements in hand to expand its operated leasehold in the Bakken Shale, and it has raised its capital budget for 2022. Management of the Denver-based independent said Tuesday the agreements entail acquiring nonoperated assets in the Bakken’s Sanish field from two undisclosed private companies for $273 million total.“These transactions continue the strategy we put forth beginning in late 2020,” said CEO Lynn Peterson. “By increasing our working interest, we are immediately recognizing substantial cash flow that is accretive for shareholders. “We know and understand the Sanish field extremely well and are very comfortable with the rate of return we are achieving.” Located in Mountrail County, ND, the assets increase Whiting’s average operated working interest to 74% from 61% throughout the Sanish area. The additional acreage would be “impacting many of the drilling units included in the company’s current 2022 development program,” management said. The assets span 14,563 net acres and should contribute about 4,500 boe/d net production (67% oil), the company said. The smaller transaction closed in late 2021 and the larger one is slated to close by the end of March. The assets include 32 net undrilled locations, which Whiting plans to develop in the “near term,” management said. Whiting also announced capital expenditure (capex) guidance of $360-400 million for 2022. The company plans to have two drilling rigs and one completions crew operating in the Williston for most of the year. The rigs would operate in North Dakota’s Mountrail, McKenzie and Williams counties.

Huntington Beach oil spill inspires legislation to ban California offshore drilling - Alarmed by damage caused by a major oil spill off the Huntington Beach coast in October, an Orange County legislator on Wednesday introduced a bill to end offshore oil production from rigs in California-controlled waters by 2024, a proposal sure to face fierce opposition and potential legal challenges from the petroleum industry. The legislation would affect 11 oil leases, all off the Orange and Ventura county coastlines. It would also allow the State Lands Commission, the agency with oversight of those contracts, to negotiate a voluntary relinquishment of the leases by oil companies before the state takes action. The cost of buying out or rescinding those leases is unclear, though the size of the industry suggests that the price tag could possibly cost the state tens if not hundreds of millions of dollars. State Sen. Dave Min, an Irvine Democrat, said the action is necessary to protect the California coastline from another catastrophic oil spill similar to the one in October, which caused widespread environmental damage and led to beach closures that hurt the economies of Orange County coastal communities. The oil rigs off the coast and their aging infrastructure continue to pose a serious threat to California's coast, he said. "It is clear to me, and I think clear to anyone who looks at the sort of status of these rigs, that it's a ticking time bomb," Min said Wednesday. "You're asking for more and more spills, and we know that this is just horrific for our coastlines, for our coastal tourism economies, for our marine ecosystems." Kevin Slagle, a spokesperson for the Western States Petroleum Association, said the proposal would decrease California's local oil supply and burden California taxpayers. Eliminating the oil leases amounts to a government "taking," which would require those companies to be compensated, he said. "Eliminating existing offshore production will lead to importing even more of the energy we need from foreign sources and putting California at significant risk for takings claims," Slagle said. The president of the State Building and Constructions Trades Council of California, a labor organization that represents oil workers and has tremendous influence in Sacramento, also expressed concerns about the potential impact of the legislation. Reducing local oil production could require the state to import more oil by tanker ships, adding more stress to California's already crowded ports, said council President Andrew Meredith. "There's a constant drumbeat to cease oil and gas production in California with no corresponding responsible plan to power our state," he said. "Nearly half of the oil coming out of the Amazon is already coming to California. Should we really be tanking more oil into California, greatly increasing carbon emissions as hundreds of tankers idle in our ports waiting to offload?"

Rightwing lobby group Alec driving laws to blacklist companies that boycott the oil industry - The influential rightwing lobby group the American Legislative Exchange Council (Alec) is driving a surge in new state laws to block boycotts of the oil industry. The group’s strategy, which aims to protect large oil firms and other conservative-friendly industries, is modelled on legislation to punish divestment from Israel. Since the beginning of the year, state legislatures in West Virginia, Oklahoma and Indiana have introduced a version of a law drafted by Alec, called the Energy Discrimination Elimination Act, to shield big oil from share selloffs and other measures intended to protest the fossil fuel industry’s role in the climate crisis. A dozen other states have publicly supported the intent of the legislation. Texas has already begun compiling a list of companies to target for refusing to do business with the oil industry after the state passed a version of the law last year. Top of the list is the world’s largest asset manager, BlackRock. The push to blacklist firms that boycott the oil industry follows a meeting in December between politicians and Alec, a corporate-funded organisation that writes legislation for Republican-controlled states to adopt and drive conservative causes. At that meeting in San Diego, members of Alec’s energy taskforce voted to promote the model legislation requiring banks and financial companies to sign a pledge to not boycott petroleum companies in order to obtain state contracts. The wording closely resembles that of laws drafted by Alec and adopted in more than 30 states to block support for the Boycott, Divestment and Sanctions (BDS) movement against Israel’s oppression of the Palestinians. Similar laws are also being promoted to protect the gun industry from boycotts. The legislation written by Alec, which has a history of extreme denial of the climate crisis, claims that “American and European fossil energy producers … are among the most socially and environmentally responsible companies in the world”. It laments that “corporations are boycotting fossil energy companies by refusing to provide them with products or services”, and says that share selloffs by financial funds hurt investors. “Banks are increasingly denying financing to creditworthy fossil energy companies solely for the purpose of decarbonizing their lending portfolios and marketing their environmental credentials,” the draft legislation says. “This model bill proposes a strategy in which states use their collective economic purchasing power to counter the rise of politically motivated and discriminatory investing practices.” The drive to pass the legislation follows the refusal of major financial firms to fund new oil and gas drilling in the Arctic. Banks and other financial institutions are also under pressure from environmental groups and customers to divest from fossil fuel companies. JPMorgan Chase, Citibank and Goldman Sachs are among those firms to publicly commit to supporting the transition away from oil. As with anti-BDS laws, any business with more than 10 employees would have to certify that it is not boycotting fossil fuel companies in order to do business with a state government. State funds, such as pensions, will usually be obliged to sell investments in corporations that refuse loans to the oil industry.

U.S. sees record oil production next year moving even higher — U.S. oil production will grow even more than the government previously expected as a scorching price rally drives producers to boost drilling. Oil output will average 12.6 million barrels a day in 2023, an increase from its previous estimate of 12.41 million, according to Energy Information Administration data. The current annual all-time high of 12.3 million barrels a day was set in 2019. This year’s production forecast was also revised higher to 11.97 million barrels a day from an earlier projection of 11.8 million, the EIA said in its monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook report. This extra U.S. supply is a welcome boon for President Joe Biden, who has asked suppliers to raise production in order to help tamp down energy prices that are contributing to the highest inflation in decades. In the wake of oil prices surging to their highest since 2014, two of the largest U.S. oil companies announced they would increase production by double digits in the Permian Basin, America’s most prolific oil patch. Prices have rallied with supplies consistently falling short of demand surging around the globe as economies recover from pandemic-era slowdowns. Global consumption is set to reach 100.6 million barrels a day this year, a higher revision from the last estimate of 100.52 million, according to the report. Consumption is expected to rise to 102.5 million barrels a day in 2023. The agency raised its price forecasts for benchmark crudes West Texas Intermediate and Brent this year by around $8 a barrel, thought it does expect oil’s rally to cool as more supplies come online. “We expect downward price pressures will emerge in the middle of the year as growth in oil production from OPEC+, the United States, and other non-OPEC countries outpaces slowing growth in global oil consumption.” Global petroleum supply are expected to rise to 101.39 million barrels a day this year. That’s an upward revision from last month’s forecast of 101.05 million. The EIA expects global production will rise further to 103.47 million barrels a day in 2023.

U.S. oil market heats up further as demand surges to record— The U.S. oil market is flashing ever more signs of tightness and supplies can barely keep up with a scorching surge in fuel demand. Last week crude stockpiles in one of the biggest oil consumers in the world plunged to the lowest since 2018, with inventories at a key storage hub falling toward critical levels. At the same time, the four-week average for total oil product supplied, a proxy for demand, surged to nearly 22 million barrels a day, the highest on record. The tightness in U.S. markets has vaulted oil and retail fuel prices to levels not seen since 2014 - a key source of concern for consuming nations due to the economic impact of high energy costs. A surge toward $100 a barrel will stoke further worries about inflation, that is already at multi-year highs in many countries. “The oil market is too tight,” said Ed Moya, senior market analyst at OANDA. “The outlook for consumption continues to improve domestically and across Europe, which means that West Texas Intermediate crude might not have much resistance getting to the $95 region this month,” he said. While gasoline demand has turned a corner from winter lows and is near pre-pandemic levels, consumption of diesel, heating oil, and propane are underpinning the fresh record. Demand for fuels has been boosted by cold weather in many parts of the U.S., adding to the broad recovery from the lows seen during the Covid-19 pandemic. The rolling average for distillates consumption rose to the highest level since 2007 after back-to-back winter storms drove demand for heating and power generation in the Northeast. In the rest of the country, highway trucking demand has remained strong as well, exceeding 2019 levels for January, according to data from the Federal Highway Administration. The four-week average for gasoline consumption rose for a second straight week and the weekly demand figure was the highest for this time of year since 2007.

Biden Is Disconnected From American’s Reluctance To Be Regulated Out Of Fossil Fuel Prosperity – OpEd – Eurasia Review -Civilization has benefited from more than 6,000 products made from the oil derivatives manufactured out of raw crude oil at refineries. None of these products were available to society before 1900. With no known replacement for crude oil in the foreseeable future, President Biden has stated “we are going to get rid of fossil fuels” implying that he is going to change society’s lifestyle and economy demands for the products made from fossil fuels that were not available before 1900.Virtually all the components of wind turbines, solar panels, and all forms of transportation are assembled with products made from oil derivatives manufactured from crude oil. Ridding the world of crude oil would eliminate most forms of transportation and electricity generation from wind and solar.The public has demonstrated that they are not going to be mandated and regulated away from using the products essential to maintaining their basic standard of living and keeping the prices for thousands of everyday goods and services low as it would reverse most of the progress humanity has made over the last century. Those products made from fossil fuels and the inventions of the automobile, airplane, and the use of petroleum in the early 1900’s led us into the Industrial Revolution and victories in World Wars I and II. President Biden appears to be disconnected from most Americans, as he must be oblivious to his own Environmental Information Agency’s (EIA) Jan 11, 2022, report that US Fossil Fuels Production to Reach Record Highs in 2023. Biden may be sabotaging the American economy with shortages and inflation in the name of unattainable climate targets and may go down in history as causing the continent to be homage to China for the materials to go green, and to Russia and OPEC for crude oil.His continuous use of executive orders, regulations, and policies to alter the social demands of society for Americans to live without reliable and affordable power supplies – supplies critical to peace, prosperity and the survival of Western civilization, and the products and infrastructures made possible from fossil fuels is not working. The shortages and inflation upon society with his tinkering of the supply chain of fossil fuels is not working as shown by his own EIA agency. Under the Biden multiple restrictions on domestic oil production and climate plan, America will be discouraging U.S. energy independence, starting with tightening restrictions on fossil fuel development by suspending Federal Oil and Gas Permits, encouraging the shuttering, and halting of further fracking efforts in America, and the cancellation of the Keystone XL pipeline.To reduce civilization’s demands for fossil fuels will require significant social changes to reduce the need for so many products, reduce flights, and reduce the need for so those products to be moved around the world. Only by reducing the demand, can we reduce the supply. There is no need whatsoever for the supply of fossil fuels if it were not for the demands of society, but the public remains unwilling to be mandated and regulated into an inferior lifestyle

Chevron Posts Best Quarter Since 2014, as Oil Industry Rebounds - Chevron, one of the nation’s largest oil companies, reported a fourth consecutive quarterly profit on Friday as oil and natural gas prices continued to recover from the pandemic slump. It was the company’s best financial performance since 2014, reflecting the sharp turnaround for the entire industry. Chevron, along with other major oil companies, has shifted its emphasis from expanding exploration as prices rise to a more disciplined, cautious approach to avoid a new glut and renewed slump in prices. So far that strategy has worked even in the face of growing criticism that the oil industry is not addressing investor concerns about climate change fast enough. Chevron, which is based in San Ramon, Calif., said it made $5.1 billion in the final three months of the year on revenue of $46 billion. The profit compared with a loss of $665 million for the period in 2020 on revenue of $25 billion. The improved results were powered by oil prices that reached a seven-year high in late 2021 and have continued to rise to more than $80 a barrel. For all of 2021, Chevron earned $15.6 billion compared with a loss of $5.5 billion in 2020, one of the most trying years for the industry in modern history as businesses and cities locked down and consumers stayed home. Chevron executives say the slump, and the necessity for the company to cut expenses, ultimately made for a stronger business. The company was able to raise its dividend in 2021, and again this week. Chevron reported higher sales volumes and lower expenses in its exploration and production operations. Most important, its average sale price for a barrel of oil in the fourth quarter was $63 compared with $33 the year before. The price of the natural gas it sold was more than three times as high as the year before, mainly because of weather factors. Chevron’s refinery profits also improved. Its quarterly profit on refining in the United States reached $660 million in the quarter compared with a loss of $174 million a year earlier. As the global economy recovered, Chevron’s U.S. refinery output increased by 9 percent in the quarter from the year before.

Chevron In Talks with Venezuela To Boost Oil Production --Chevron is in talks with the Venezuelan government to gain more control over their joint venture and help Caracas boost oil production.Bloomberg reported that the negotiations are being led by the chief of Chevron’s Venezuelan division, Javier La Rosa, and PDVSA’s president, Asdrubal Chavez, according to unnamed sources in the know.The two had discussed PDVSA giving the U.S. supermajor greater control over the joint operation in exchange for some debt relief. For now, however, the negotiations are informal because Chevron would need a sanctions waiver to make any formal commitments.Chevron and PDVSA operate four oil fields together. Before U.S. sanctions, these produced around 200,000 bpd, according to Bloomberg. Now, they are producing around 140,000 bpd, the report also said.While Chevron has been present in Venezuela for decades and has continued operating in the country under a series of waivers granted by the U.S. federal government, in 2020, the company wrote off its total $2.6-billion investment in the South American country due to the excessive uncertainty around Venezuela’s oil industry.Last year, after President Joe Biden took office, Chevron lobbied for laxer sanctions on Caracas so it could operate in the country with fewer constraints.Venezuela, meanwhile, is ramping up oil production despite the sanctions, largely with the help of Iranian condensate that it uses to dilute its superheavy crude. Last year, PDVSa managed to reverse a decline in oil exports, booking a modest climb of 1% in annual exports, most of which went to China, Reuters reported last month.Production also increased, with the average for 2021 at around 600,000 bpd, with the December daily jumping to over 800,000 bpd, with one daily spike to 1 million bpd—the closest PDVSA got to its planned ramp-up to 1.28 million bpd for the full year.It is as part of these production boost efforts that the g overnment in Caracas has become willing to give foreign partners of PDVSA a greater say in the operation of the joint ventures.

Repsol continues cleaning up oil spillage in Peru - Spanish refinery Repsol says it is 48 per cent through the total cleanup of a January 15 oil spill off the coast of the Peruvian capital, Lima. Company spokesman Luis Vasquez said on Monday that the progress is in line with the schedule presented to Peruvian authorities. Nearly 3,000 people are working on the cleanup.

Core Lab Sees 2022 Growth in Americas, Middle East, South Atlantic - Heavily dependent on international oil and gas activity, oilfield services (OFS) firm Core Laboratories NV is engaged in a waiting game as it looks to benefit from improving global market dynamics. Core expects “seasonal declines in activity as we start the new year, and there are still short-term pandemic-related headwinds, as the sharp increase in virus cases in late 2021 has continued into early 2022,” said CEO Larry Bruno. “This has impacted operations through a combination of government-imposed lockdowns, delays in client projects and overtime costs to cover quarantine requirements among Core Lab staff.”Bruno added, however, that recent Covid cases among staff “have largely been mild and of short duration, and we anticipate fewer Covid-related impacts as the year unfolds.”Core divides its operations between its Reservoir Description and Production Enhancement segments. During the fourth quarter and full-year 2021 earnings call with analysts, management said Reservoir Description, with its emphasis on laboratory-based staffing, has been the segment hardest hit by lockdowns and quarantines.The company said the business outlook is improving, though. “As pandemic disruptions abate, the expansion of international developments provides growth opportunities for both segments into 2022 and beyond, with a particular focus on the South Atlantic Margin, Latin America, and the Middle East,” stated Core.

Europe’s newest climate change problem: Russia - Rising natural gas prices and hair-trigger tensions between Russia and Ukraine are forcing Europe to grapple with tough questions about the pace of its energy transition. Europe depends on Russia for more than a third of its gas needs, but Moscow’s aggression toward Ukraine has stoked fears about interruptions in gas deliveries if the military conflict escalates into all-out war. That has forced European leaders to confront the continent’s growing reliance on Russian gas imports to generate electricity, heat homes and power the industrial sector. White House national security adviser Jake Sullivan said yesterday that Russia could invade Ukraine “any day,” launching a conflict that would come at an “enormous human cost.” The crisis arrives as Europe attempts to plot a path toward a greener future. Many European countries have moved to shutter coal plants and build wind and solar facilities in recent years to slow their upward emissions trend. But gas is still needed because there aren’t enough renewable generation sources to replace fossil fuels. “I think Europe is seeing that it’s very hard to shut down coal and in some places nuclear and then not have gas go up,” said Stefan Ulrich, a European gas associate at BloombergNEF. “Even with the strong renewable build-out we’ve seen in Europe, especially during the winter you need that thermal generation to meet your energy demand.” Analysts say the conflict has exposed the volatility of gas imports and punctuated the fuel’s importance in helping Europe move from coal to renewable energy. “It very much puts the issue of European energy security back into this discussion around energy transition,” Ulrich added. The crisis might push European countries to make their transition to clean energy more quickly, some analysts said. And some European officials have doubled down on their support for the shift. “The current situation underlines again that the clean energy transition is the only way forward: the challenges we are facing now are the result of our dependency on fossil fuels — in particular on Russian gas. The answer is more green energy, not less,” Kadri Simson, the European commissioner for energy, said in emailed comments to E&E News. She’ll be in Washington this week to discuss energy cooperation, security and decarbonization during meetings with the U.S.-E.U. Energy Council. In the short term, Europe’s options for ramping up gas production and imports to bolster fuel supplies are limited.

IHS Markit report says LNG imports to Europe would be sufficient to overcome shutoff of Russia gas flows through Ukraine - Supplies of Russian gas to Europe via Ukraine have already fallen—and been replaced by LNG imports—to such a degree that shutting off the remaining gas that is still flowing through Ukraine would have a relatively limited additional impact on European supply, according to a new report by IHS Markit, a world leader in critical information, analytics and solutions. The report, entitled Putting Europe’s Security of Gas Supply to the Test by the IHS Markit Global Gas service highlights the reduced role of Ukrainian gas transit in Europe’s gas supply. The report says Russian gas flows through Ukraine fell to historical lows in January—50 million cubic meters per day (Mmcm/d), less than half of levels from a year ago. While flows through the Ukraine have swung back up with the beginning of February, they remain half the levels of the period 2015-2020. “Europe is already experiencing a ‘quasi-curtailment’ of Russia gas flows,” says Michael Stoppard, chief strategist, global gas, IHS Markit. “The result is a European gas import picture that is starkly different from a year ago. One where LNG imports have ramped up to fill the gap.” LNG imports to Europe increased considerably in January 2022 supplying higher volumes (34% of total supply) than Russian pipeline supply, which fell to 17% of supply, the report says. LNG imports from the United States rose to a new record of 245 Mmcm/d, accounting for the largest share of LNG by far. The average total LNG imports in January were 490 MMcm/d, with the upward trend in LNG imports continuing into February. LNG imports for the first three days of February have averaged 605 MMcm/d, with February 3rd reaching 710 MMcm/d. The surge in LNG imports has reduced core Europe’s previously abundant spare regasification capacity, which has gone from 82% in January 2021 to 25% in late January 2022. Nevertheless, enough spare regasification capacity exists to cover the loss of remaining pipeline flows from Ukraine relatively comfortably, the report says. A modest acceleration in storage withdrawal could also feasibly compensate for any lost supply. While the loss of remaining pipeline flows through Ukraine would not present a threat to physical supplies, it would likely put further pressure on prices as LNG volumes are pulled away from other destination markets in an already tight and rattled global market, the report says.

Biden Vows to Halt Russia-to-Germany Gas Pipeline If Russia Invades Ukraine - President Biden said Monday that a Russian-built pipeline to carry natural gas to Germany will be abandoned if Russia invades Ukraine. Biden made the remark during a joint news conference at the White House with Germany’s new chancellor, Olaf Scholz. Scholz did not explicitly state that Germany would suspend the Nord Stream 2 pipeline, though he said the U.S. and Germany were aligned in their positions. In Brussels, European Union Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said the EU was exploring other options for its energy supplies — which would include fracked gas from the United States.Ursula von der Leyen: “We are building a partnership for energy security with the United States, which is primarily about more liquefied natural gas supplies. We are talking to other gas suppliers — for example, Norway — about increasing their supplies to Europe.”Also on Monday, French President Emmanuel Macron met Russian President Vladimir Putin at the Kremlin. Putin said Russia was still working to find a diplomatic solution to the crisis over Ukraine, but warned of a wider, nuclear-armed confrontation if Ukraine is to join the NATO military alliance.

Biden says Nord Stream 2 won’t go forward if Russia invades Ukraine, but German Chancellor demurs - – President Joe Biden and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz had an awkward exchange with a reporter Monday at the White House over the future of the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline. The discord at a press conference during Scholz's first visit to the White House was brief and civil. But it also represented a rare public show of genuine friction in a relationship that serves as a cornerstone of European security. The Nord Stream 2 natural gas pipeline between Russia and Germany was finished in September of last year, but it has yet to transport any actual gas. Biden said Monday that Nord Stream 2 would be scrapped if Russia launches a military invasion of Ukraine, which Moscow's troop movements strongly suggest is imminent. But Scholz refused to say the same. "If Russia invades -- that means tanks or troops crossing the border of Ukraine, again, then there will be no longer a Nord Stream 2," Biden said at a joint press conference with Scholz. "We will bring an end to it." "But how will you do that exactly, since the project and control of the project is within Germany's control?" asked Andrea Shalal of Reuters, who had posed the original question to Biden about Nord Stream. "We will, I promise you, we'll be able to do it," Biden replied. When the same question was put to Scholz, however, the German leader gave a very different answer. "We have intensively prepared everything to be ready with the necessary sanctions if there is a military aggression against Ukraine," he said, without mentioning Nord Stream. "It is part of the process that we do not spell out everything in public, because Russia should understand that there might be even more to come." "Will you commit today to turning off and pulling the plug on Nord Stream 2?" asked Shalal. But Scholz would not. "As I already said, we are acting together. We are absolutely united and we will not be taking different steps," he replied, ignoring Shalal's question.

US Gas Diplomacy Won't Avert Price Spike If Russian Supplies Interrupted: Kemp - U.S. policymakers are reportedly hunting around the world for alternative sources of gas in the event conflict between Russia and NATO over Ukraine interrupts pipeline supplies to Europe. Top officials have approached rival producer Qatar as well as consuming countries in Asia, including Japan, South Korea and even China, about diverting liquefied natural gas (LNG) cargoes to Europe. The diplomatic effort is likely intended to reassure European policymakers about security of supply and stiffen their resolve to threaten tough economic sanctions. It is also probably meant to signal NATO resolve to Russia as part of an escalate-to-negotiate strategy intended to demonstrate escalation dominance and convince the Russian government to back down. Qatar has already been rewarded with a summit at the White House and formal designation under U.S. law as a major non-NATO ally, which could unlock a variety of economic, diplomatic and military benefits But while the highly publicized hunt for alternative supplies has value as diplomatic theatre it is unlikely to improve Europe’s energy security very much. Energy security depends on prices as much as physical availability and any sustained interruption of Russian supplies would cause a damaging price spike in Europe and the rest of the world.Globally, there is little spare capacity at any stage in the LNG supply chain, as recent record prices have shown, so increased supplies to Europe could only come at the expense of reduced supplies in other regions. Unlike oil, where the consuming countries hold strategic stocks to offset the risk of an embargo, gas stocks are low and designed to deal with seasonal consumption swings rather than politically motivated supply interruptions. There is no equivalent for gas of the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve and the network of other strategic petroleum stocks held by countries in the International Energy Agency.Gas is more difficult and expensive to store than crude oil and liquid fuels, and until now has been treated as less of a national security issue. In the event a NATO/Russia conflict reduced or halted pipeline supplies to Europe for more than a few days, the global production-consumption balance would worsen and prices would surge higher for all consumers outside the United States. Gas prices in Northwest Europe and Northeast Asia are already closely correlated because they both draw on the same suppliers of LNG (https://tmsnrt.rs/3AWT7qn).Moreover, consumers in Asia could only agree to re-route LNG cargoes to Europe at the cost of reducing their own supply security next winter.Short-term swaps in which consumers in Asia agreed to divert LNG to Europe on the understanding they will receive the cargoes back before next winter would only postpone Europe’s supply crunch until later in the year. Longer term swaps that saw consumers in Asia repaid after next winter would leave them facing unacceptably high risks to their own supply security between November 2022 and March 2023.These strategies all emphasize the essentially zero-sum nature of limited gas supplies in the short term would leave all consuming countries as a group with lower gas inventories over the next twelve months.

EXPLAINER: What happens to Europe's energy if Russia acts? - (AP) — Fears are rising about what would happen to Europe’s energy supply if Russia were to invade Ukraine and then shut off natural gas exports in retaliation for U.S. and European sanctions.The tensions show the risk of Europe’s reliance on Russia for energy, which supplies about a third of the continent's natural gas. And Europe's stockpile is already low. While the U.S. has pledged to help by boosting exports of liquefied natural gas, or LNG, there’s only so much it can produce at once.It leaves Europe in a potential crisis, with its gas already sapped by a cold winter last year, a summer with little renewable energy generation and Russia delivering less than usual. Prices have skyrocketed, squeezing households and businesses.Here's what to know about Europe's energy supply if tensions boil over into war and Russia is hit with sanctions: No one knows for sure, but a complete shutoff is seen as unlikely, because it would be mutually destructive. Moscow relies on energy exports, and though it just signed a gas deal with China, Europe is a key source of revenue. Europe is likewise dependent on Russia, so any Western sanctions would likely avoid directly targeting Russian energy supplies.More likely, experts say, would be Russia withholding gas sent through pipelines crossing Ukraine. Russia pumped 175 billion cubic meters of gas into Europe last year, nearly a quarter of it through those pipelines, according to S&P Global Platts. That would leave pipelines under the Baltic Sea and through Poland still operating.“I think in the event of even a less severe Russian attack against Ukraine, the Russians are almost certain to cut off gas transiting Ukraine on the way to Germany,” said former U.S. diplomat Dan Fried, who as State Department coordinator for sanctions policy helped craft 2014 measures against Russia when it invaded and annexed Ukraine’s Crimea peninsula.Russia could then offer to make up the lost gas if Germany approves the contentious new Nord Stream 2 pipeline, whose operators could face potential U.S. sanctions even though a recent vote to that effect failed.U.S. national security adviser Jake Sullivan said Sunday on NBC's “Meet the Press" that the Biden administration has coordinated with its allies and that “if Russia invades Ukraine, one way or another, Nord Stream 2 will not move forward."Interrupting gas supplies beyond the Ukrainian pipelines is less likely: “If they push it too far, they're going to make a breach with Europe irreparable, and they have to sell the oil and gas someplace,” Fried said.

Russia expands China ties with new gas deal -Russia and China have clinched a new gas supply deal, as Moscow doubles down on its pivot towards Beijing against a backdrop of heightened tensions with the West over Ukraine. Russia’s national gas company Gazprom announced on February 4 that it had agreed on the annual sale of 10bn cubic metres per year of natural gas to China’s CNPC over a 30-year period. The agreement underpins the development of a new export route for Russian gas to China in the Far East. Russia already pumps gas to China via the Power of Siberia pipeline, which was opened in late 2019. These supplies are sent under a $400bn deal the two countries reached in 2014, not long after ties between Russia and the West collapsed following Moscow’s annexation of Crimea. While Power of Siberia is filled with gas from onshore fields in Eastern Siberia, the latest contract is for supplies from the South-Kirinskoye field off the east coast of Sakhalin Island. The deal was signed on the same day as Russian President Vladimir Putin’s arrival in Beijing to attend the 2022 Winter Olympics. Moscow and Beijing are eager to stress their close ties in the face of worsening relations with the US. According to the Kremlin, up to 15 agreements could be signed between the two countries during Putin’s visit. Russia has been steadily expanding its economic, and more recently, its political ties with China over the past decade, and energy trade has played a main role in this shift. While the EU is still Russia’s top export market, China is in second place, with its imports totalling $79.3bn in value in 2021, according to the Chinese customs agency. Oil and gas accounted for $44.6n of this sum. Russia has jostled in recent years with Saudi Arabia for the position of China’s biggest oil supplier. Last year, it delivered 1.59mn barrels per day (bpd) of crude, accounting for 15.5% of Chinese imports. These supplies are sent via the Eastern Siberia Pacific Ocean (ESPO). Chinese investors also have a position in Russia’s upstream, LNG and petrochemicals sectors, most notably at Novatek’s Yamal LNG and upcoming Arctic LNG-2 plants in the Russian Arctic. Russia is also China’s third-largest gas supplier, sending 16.5 bcm of the fuel in 2021, via pipeline and in LNG form, covering around 5% of Chinese gas demand. Gazprom launched Power of Siberia in December 2019, establishing piped gas exports to China for the first time.

Hunter Biden Tried To Broker Energy Deal With China's State-Owned Oil Company: Emails - The Chinese oil company alleged to be part of the deal, the State China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC), is not any ordinary firm. Last year, the U.S. Commerce Department identified the company as posing a threat to U.S. national security and added it to a trade blacklist called the “Entity List.” The Pentagon named CNOOC as one of Beijing’s “military companies” in December 2020. That same month, the U.S. State Department asked U.S. investors (pdf) to steer away from investing in stock and bond indices having “malign PRC companies” on their portfolios, with CNOOC being one of the many companies named. The People’s Republic of China is the official title of China. The Daily Mail obtained the emails from what is alleged to be Hunter Biden’s abandoned laptop, showing him travel to Beijing and Kazakhstan in an effort to broker the oil deal in the two-year period. At that time, he tried to negotiate the deal on behalf of a Ukrainian energy firm named Burisma where he was a board member, according to the outlet. According to the emails, the plan was for the Kazakh government to award drilling rights to CNOOC, while Burisma would operate rigs and wells in the Central Asian country. Kazakhstan, once a part of the Soviet Union, is rich in oil and natural gas, sitting on one of the largest oil reserves in the world. Currently, an oil pipeline runs from Atasu, a town in Kazakhstan, to Alashankou, a border city in China’s far-western Xinjiang region. Hunter Biden apparently tried to team up with Karim Massimov, who was Kazakh prime minister from 2007 to 2012 and from 2014 to 2016, to make the deal happen. In the emails, Hunter described Massimov as a “close friend” and his son as a “very good friend.” Massimov also headed Kazakhstan’s intelligence agency—the National Security Committee (KNB) that succeeds the Soviet-era KGB—until he was sacked in early January this year. Soon after, he was detained on suspicion of treason. According to the Daily Mail, there is no indication that the treason charge against Massimov is connected to the oil deal.

Saudi Arabia's natural gas aspirations: The domestic outlook | Middle East Institute - With the recent announcement of the Jafurah Field, a massive unconventional, non-associated gas play, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia is looking to enter the global gas sector. The field’s estimated reserves, while substantial, are insufficient to meet current domestic needs and, in the future, displace dirty heavy fuel oil used in power generation and satisfy international export goals. The kingdom thus faces difficult decisions regarding the allocation of the Jafurah gas — to either domestic or international markets — and both options have significant challenges.For more than 20 years Saudi Arabia has studied its gas resources and their potential impact on domestic fuel needs. Beginning in 2019, it launched a renewed effort to utilize domestic gas resources to displace heavy fuel oils for power supply and to provide expanded fuel supply to meet growing domestic demand, especially in the hot summer months. According to a December 2019 report from the King Abdullah Petroleum Studies and Research Center (KAPSARC), domestic demand for natural gas is expected to increase by 3.7% annually from 2017 to 2030. However, according to an analysis of the role natural gas will play in the Saudi Vision 2030 development plan, Jadwa Investment estimated that gas output will need to rise by as much as 6.6% on average per year in the decade to 2030 to meet domestic demand driven by growing power and industrial needs. The challenges facing gas supply growth include the following:

1. Resource base
2. Capability and skill set
3. Capital
4. Supply chain
5. Infrastructure, and
6. The domestic gas conundrum

These challenges must be addressed and overcome for domestic natural gas to play a more significant role in the kingdom’s energy supply. With the recent announcement of the Jafurah development plan, the country and its operating company, Saudi Aramco (Aramco), are now moving into the implementation phase. The country, and specifically Aramco, will need to address key issues before the Jafurah play can achieve commerciality. Aramco has technical skills that can be applied and utilized in the development of Jafurah. However, the company’s technical focus has been oil production in carbonate reservoirs. It deploys modern technology to manage these expansive fields. Additionally, Aramco has delivered major capital projects such as natural gas and crude oil treatment plants. That said, most of the natural gas produced in the kingdom is associated gas, which is reinjected for pressure maintenance of the all-important oil reservoirs to ensure production and cash flow. Aramco has minimal experience in tight gas play delineation or development and is woefully understaffed with technical specialists in this sector. U.S. gas production is the culmination of decades of experience and the development of a multigenerational workforce with expertise in geology, geophysics, drilling, petrophysics, completion, and production. Aramco plans to start production from Jafurah in 2024 and to reach 2.2 billion cubic feet (bcf) per day of gas by 2036. The company has limited experience in manufacturing-style resource exploitation and has yet to climb the learning curve, which will add expense and consume capital.

Exploded Nigerian oil storage vessel had up to 60,000 barrels before incident - An oil storage vessel that exploded off the coast of Nigeria this week was holding around 50,000 to 60,000 barrels of crude oil at the time of the incident, Minister of Environment Sharon Ikeazor said on Saturday. Nigeria's Shebah Exploration & Production Company Ltd (SEPCOL) said on Thursday that flames had engulfed the Trinity Spirit floating production, storage and offloading (FPSO) vessel following a blast a day earlier. Ikeazor said the National Oil Spill Detection and Response Agency has called the oil industry operators and the Clean Nigeria Associates, a co-operative responding to oil spill incidents for support. SEPCOL, in receivership, said it was working with authorities to inspect the vessel after the fire burnt out and an investigation team has been launched to establish the cause of the explosion. It reported no casualties and is investigating the whereabouts and safety of 10 crew members who were on board the vessel prior to the incident, SEPCOL said in a statement. An industry source with knowledge of operations of the Trinity Spirit FPSO said until five years ago other companies, including large oil traders, stored their crude on the vessel, which had capacity to produce 22,000 barrels per day and could store 2 million barrels. The Trinity Spirit is the primary production facility for OML 108, which covers 750 square km (290 square miles) of water off the Niger Delta, ranging from a depth of 30 metres to 213 metres, SEPCOL's website said.

Nigerian parliament urges probe into oil vessel fire (Xinhua) -- Nigeria's House of Representatives on Wednesday urged the federal government to probe into a recent deadly fire at an oil vessel. The aim of the probe "was to unearth the remote and immediate causes of the explosion to prevent a recurrence," the parliament said. The vessel, operated by Nigeria's Shebah Exploration and Production Company, suddenly caught fire at a port in the southwestern state of Ondo last week, leaving at least three people dead. The country's economy was impacted by the explosion of the vessel, which had about 50,000 barrels in storage, and it may take a long time to recover, the parliament said, noting the surrounding coastal communities may feel the repercussions as well, including water pollution, death of aquatic animals, and dispersal of surviving fish. On Monday, Nigeria's Minister of State for the Environment Sharon Ikeazor said in a statement that the National Oil Spill Detection and Response Agency had launched an overflight to monitor the situation of a crude oil spill in the affected area.

State of emergency over Thailand oil spill A province in eastern Thailand has declared a state of emergency after crude oil reached its beaches following an oil spill from a ruptured pipeline late last month. Approximately 47,000 litres of oil are estimated to have leaked into the Gulf of Thailand from an underwater hose used to load tankers at an offshore single point mooring (SPM) owned by Star Petroleum Refining Company (SPRC), in which US supermajor Chevron is the majority shareholder. SPRC said that divers have been able to inspect the subsea equipment around the SPM and had identified a failure on one of the subsea flexible hoses. “We have a long history as a safe, reliable and caring operator. We take full responsibility for our operations [and] are deeply saddened and disappointed by the impact of this spill,” SPRC chief executive Robert Joseph Dobrik told a media briefing on Friday. “SPRC will undertake a thorough investigation of the incident and get to the root cause of the failure,” he said. The company is continuing to evaluate and monitor the impact of the crude spill on the environment and communities, and it will continue with its clean-up operations.

OPEC+ falls further behind its oil output quotas, hampered by disruptions: Platts survey - OPEC and its allies continue to underperform their increasingly lofty oil production targets, with the group falling a record 700,000 b/d short of its collective quotas in January, according to the latest S&P Global Platts survey. OPEC's 13 countries raised output by 150,000 b/d from December, pumping 28.19 million b/d of crude, while the nine non-OPEC partners, led by Russia, only managed to add a meager 10,000 b/d, producing 13.99 million b/d, the survey found. In all, 14 out of the 18 members with quotas underproduced their targets, pushing OPEC+ compliance to 120.8%, the highest since the group instituted record output cuts in spring 2020 to pull the oil market out of its pandemic crash, according to Platts calculations. Despite strong gains from the group's core Gulf members and Russia, along with a resurgent Nigeria, disruptions in several OPEC+ countries, including Venezuela, Kazakhstan, Libya and Iraq, limited the bloc's growth. The coalition's struggles to keep pace with its monthly 400,000 b/d quota hikes have drawn a chorus of criticism from its key crude customers, including the US and India, who say the group should tap its shrinking spare production capacity to bring oil prices down from recent seven-year highs. However, OPEC+ officials, who are next scheduled to meet March 2 to determine April output targets, say prices have overshot levels that current market fundamentals would indicate, driven by rising geopolitical risks in the Ukraine and elsewhere. And they say that many underperforming countries face only temporary setbacks that can quickly be reversed. Nigeria, plagued by numerous operational and technical problems over the past year, is one such example, posting the largest increase among OPEC+ members in January to hit a nine-month high, according to the Platts survey. Africa's largest oil producer pumped 1.57 million b/d, up by 190,000 b/d from December, aided by a recovery in key export grade Forcados. Even so, it was well under its quota of 1.683 million b/d. OPEC+ co-leaders Russia and Saudi Arabia both pumped 10.08 million b/d in January, also failing to hit their quotas of 10.122 million b/d. Platts Analytics estimates about 325,000 b/d of additional upside in Russian output by the end of 2022, which would leave it well short of its final target of 11 million b/d under the OPEC+ agreement. Russia's "production growth in 2022 will not keep pace with its quota increases under the current framework deal," Platts Analytics said in a recent note. Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia saw its crude exports rise modestly in January, while domestic refining runs appeared to pick up. The kingdom boosted output by 130,000 b/d, the survey found. Neighboring UAE, which has often chafed at the production restraints imposed by the OPEC+ agreement, slightly exceeded its quota in January, pumping 2.93 million b/d. Venezuela, which is exempt from a quota under the OPEC+ deal, had a major slowdown, as reduced supplies of diluents dragged down production from its extra heavy oil fields. It produced 630,000 b/d in January, the survey found, down 120,000 b/d.Imports of Iranian condensate, which it uses to blend its extra-heavy crude, had helped the Latin American country recover its output in recent months. But an expected cargo for January did not arrive, sources said, forcing Venezuela to shut in production.Another exempt member, Libya, slipped under 1 million b/d for the first time since October 2020 due to issues at its southwestern and eastern oil fields. Production did rebound sharply in the second half of January, but rough weather also resulted in lower exports.

Libya's daily oil production drops by 100,000 barrels per day (Xinhua) -- The state-owned Libyan National Oil Corporation (NOC) announced on Friday that the country's daily oil production has dropped by 100,000 barrels per day due to its inability to maintain oil tanks damaged by armed conflicts. "The National Oil Corporation expresses deep concern about having to reduce daily oil production as a result of the inability to carry out maintenance of tanks damaged by wars, as well as the disruption of some emergency projects," the NOC said in a statement. Currently, 11 out of the 19 oil tanks are out of service, making it impossible to maintain oil production, according to NOC Chairman Mustafa Sanalla. Waha Oil Company, a Tripoli-based company engaged in the exploration and production of crude oil and natural gas, "was forced to reduce its production by about 100,000 barrels per day as a result of the lack of storage capacities, because of the suspension of maritime traffic in the ports of the Sirte Gulf," Sanalla said. The NOC statement said bad weather caused the closure of most oil ports in the Sirte Gulf, but the closure could have been averted if proper infrastructure had been in place. Oil and gas are a primary source of revenue for Libya. Nonetheless, armed conflict and the shutdown of oil fields and ports have hurt the sector in recent years. Last month, Sanalla announced plans to carry out extensive maintenance work on a number of oilfields that had been damaged by armed conflicts and terrorist attacks, in order to maintain the average daily production of 1.2 million barrels. In January, the daily oil production in Libya was about 946,000 barrels.

IRAQ DATA: Federal oil exports in Jan drop 2% despite higher OPEC+ quota | S&P Global Platts -- Iraq's federal oil exports, excluding flows from the semi-autonomous Kurdistan region, fell more than 2% in January from December, the oil ministry said Feb. 1, despite a higher OPEC+ quota for the month. Federal oil exports in January dropped to 3.203 million b/d from 3.277 million b/d in December, according to the ministry figures. Iraq's OPEC+ quota rose to 4.281 million b/d in January from 4.237 million b/d in December as members of the 23-member coalition continued to ease their production curbs by 400,000 b/d a month. The quota covers production, and not exports. The ministry did not disclose volumes of internal crude consumption nor inventory changes. Iraq's February quota is 4.325 million b/d. Iraq has not yet released the production figures for January. OPEC+ ministers, who are convening monthly, are set to meet virtually on Feb. 2 to decide on March production levels. Federal Iraq's central and southern exports fell 2% to 3.111 million b/d in January from a month earlier, while its exports of Kirkuk crude via the Turkish Port of Ceyhan declined 5.7% to 82,118 b/d. Iraq's exports of Kirkuk were briefly disrupted on Jan. 18-19 after flows from the Kirkuk-Ceyhan pipeline stopped following an explosion in southern Turkey which temporarily shut the key export route. OPEC's second largest producer raked in January $8.27 billion by selling its crude at $83.246/b, compared with $7.39 billion in exports at $72,768/b in December.

Iran heads to become gasoline importer, ready to boost oil output - Iran will become a gasoline and gas oil importer in the next two or three years due to strong domestic consumption, oil minister Javad Owji said, the oil ministry's news service Shana reported on Feb 6. Domestic refinery capacity is set to increase by around 200,000 b/d within two or three years, he said. "We have signed contracts for an additional 1.46 million b/d to be implemented in a period of four to six years for refineries that produce feedstock for petrochemical plants," the oil minister added. He pointed out that $2.5 billion to $3 billion is needed to add every 100,000 b/d of refining capacity, and funding will be arranged. Iran is capable of exporting 2.5 million b/d of oil, with capacity at about 4 million b/d, he said. Gas output is 840 million cm/day. If US sanctions against Iran's oil exports are removed, the country is able to raise output back to 2018 levels, Farrokh Alikhani, deputy managing director of National Iranian Oil Co., said, according to a a Feb. 6 report by news agency Naftkhabar that was posted to the NIOC website. "We believe that there are requirements to reach 4 million b/d of oil production and we are seriously endeavoring to reach it in the next year (2022-2023)," Alikhani said. Eventual US sanctions relief for Iran could ease oil market tightness, with a Biden administration official saying Jan. 31 that the six-month negotiations over the nuclear deal were entering their "final stretch," though a full agreement that leads to unimpeded Iranian oil exports may not be implemented for months. Iran's production was 2.5 million b/d in December, according to a monthly S&P Global Platts survey. Dated Brent assessed by Platts finished last week at a seven-year high of $93.55/b. Owji said that the country is looking into major foreign investments from China and Russia. "In the next eight years, we allocate $15 billion-$20 billion to develop oil and gas fields. Under the 25-year agreement with the Chinese, about the same amount will be invested... We try to reach the same deal with the Russians," he said. "Within two-three months, we will hopefully sign contracts with Russian companies for the transfer of technology, manufacturing equipment and production increase," he said.

Crude oil tests $95 per barrel; Saudi Arabia increases oil prices -Saudi Arabia raised oil prices for customers in Asia, the US and Europe after crude’s surge to almost $95 a barrel. State firm Saudi Aramco increased all grades for its main market of Asia in March. The company raised its key Arab Light oil for the region by 60 cents from February to $2.80 per barrel above the benchmark it uses. Other Asian grades jumped by between 40 and 70 cents a barrel. US prices were increased by 30 cents. Brent crude has climbed around 20% in 2022 to more than $93 a barrel. Its rise has come as global consumption remains strong despite the spread of omicron variant of the virus. In addition, oil stockpiles have plummeted in the past year and many major producers are struggling to pump more. Aramco’s decision came days after Opec+ opted to increase its daily crude production by 400,000 barrels a day next month, in line with traders’ expectations. Many energy analysts doubt the group, led by Saudi Arabia and Russia, will add that much back to the market because of the supply problems among some of its members. Saudi Aramco is the world’s biggest oil exporter. More than 60% of its shipments go to Asia, with China, Japan, South Korea and India being the biggest buyers. Aramco’s pricing moves often set the tone for other producers in the Middle East.

Oil falls on positive signals from U.S.-Iran talks - Oil prices fell on Monday as signs of a progress in the U.S.-Iran nuclear talks that could lead to removal of U.S. sanctions on Iranian oil sales offset concerns about the tight supplies. Brent crude declined 58 cents, or 0.62%, to end the day at $92.69 per barrel, after earlier touching $94.00, its highest level since October 2014. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude fell 99 cents, or 1.07%, to settle at $91.32 per barrel. U.S. President Joe Biden's administration on Friday restored sanctions waivers to Iran to allow international nuclear cooperation projects, as the talks on the 2015 international nuclear deal enter the final stretch. Although the sanctions relief will have limited impacts on Iran's struggling economy, they were perceived by the markets as positive signal that both sides are determined to reach a deal. If the United States lifts sanctions on Iran, the country could boost oil shipments, adding to global supply. "Investors expect more twists and turns in the U.S.-Iranian talks and no agreement to be reached anytime soon," said Kazuhiko Saito, chief analyst at Fujitomi Securities Co Ltd. Commerzbank analyst Carsten Fritsch said: "If the oil sanctions were also to be relaxed, this could help ease the oil market." Crude prices, which have already rallied about 20% this year, are likely to surpass $100 per barrel because of strong global demand, analysts have said. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and allies led by Russia, together known as OPEC+, are struggling to meet targets despite pressure from top consumers to raise production more quickly. Fuelling supply concerns, tensions remain high in Eastern Europe, with White House national security adviser Jake Sullivan saying on Sunday that Russia could invade Ukraine within days or weeks but might still opt for a diplomatic path.

WTI, Brent Extend Losses as Iranian Nuclear Talks Advance (DTN) -- New York Mercantile Exchange oil futures and Brent crude traded on the Intercontinental Exchange extended Monday's losses into early trading Tuesday, sending the international crude benchmark below $91 per barrel (bbl) on a combination of easing geopolitical risks, including partial lifting of Iranian sanctions on civilian nuclear projects ahead of the final stretch in multinational talks in Vienna this week, and potential for deescalating tensions between Russia and the West following France President Emmanuel Macron's visit to Moscow. After marathon meetings in Moscow and Kiev, Macron told journalists he was able to receive assurances from Russia's President Vladimir Putin that the situation in Ukraine would not deteriorate any further, adding that "there is no security for the Europeans if there is no security for Russia." Putin signaled negotiations that lasted more than five hours were productive, saying "a number of Macron's ideas are a possible basis for further steps. We will do everything to find compromise that suits everyone." Moscow has demanded North Atlantic Treaty Organization forces be withdrawn from Eastern Europe and Ukraine, Russia's immediate neighbor on its western border, and that Ukraine would never be granted membership in the alliance. United States and NATO rebuked the demands, citing NATO's policy of "open doors" and principle of "self-determination." For the energy markets, the winter's escalation of tensions along the Russian-Ukrainian border fueled concerns over interrupted gas flow from Russia to the European Union, sending EU gas prices to record highs. Russia supplies between 40% and 50% of Europe's gas consumption, about 200 billion cubic meters (bcm) a year, of which around 100,000 bcm goes via the central and northern pipeline routes, which includes the Ukrainian network. Separately, oil traders are watching for signs of progress in Iranian nuclear talks that have appeared to reach their final stage this week after U.S. President Joe Biden renewed waivers for Iranian nuclear projects designated for civilian use. Representatives from Moscow and Tehran have suggested the new deal could be imminent now that the Biden administration is ready to negotiate. White House has come under intense scrutiny for rising gasoline prices that have rallied to seven-year highs, with the energy index expected to be the largest contributor of inflation in January. The headline inflation figure likely climbed above 7% last month -- the highest since 1982. Out of all items that are part of U.S. consumer price index, gasoline prices posted the single largest increase last year, surging 49.8% in the 12 months ending in December. In Eurozone, inflation for January came in at a record-high 5.1%, also driven by the energy index, despite easing costs for manufactured goods. Lifting sanctions on Iranian crude oil exports could offer much-needed relief for dwindling oil inventories across countries that are part of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development. A S&P Platts analysis suggests Iran could immediately boost crude oil exports by 700,000 barrels per day (bpd), bringing them back to pre-sanctions era of 2 million bpd. The country currently produces around 2.476 million bpd, 1.5 million bpd below 2017 level, a year before Trump withdrew from the nuclear arrangement known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action. Near 7:30 a.m. ET, March West Texas Intermediate futures fell below $90 bbl, shedding $1.64 in overnight trading, and Brent crude for April delivery declined $1.87 to $90.83 bbl. NYMEX March RBOB futures plummeted more than 5 cents or 1.9% to $2.6354 gallon and the front-month ULSD contract slumped 6.16 cents to $2.7938 gallon.

Oil Down 2% on Easing Geopolitical Risk Ahead of Stock Data -- Oil futures nearest delivery posted across-the-board losses Tuesday. Both U.S. and international crude benchmarks settled the session 2% lower amid a one-two punch of easing geopolitical tensions across the Ukraine-Russian border and reported progress in Iranian nuclear talks in Vienna, where diplomats signaled the deal could be imminent after negotiations entered their final stage this week. Further weighing on the oil complex, U.S. commercial crude oil inventories are expected to have increased 500,000 barrels (bbl) in the week ended Feb. 4, with estimates ranging from a decrease of 2.2 million bbl to an increase of 3.5 million bbl. If realized, this would mark the second consecutive weekly build for nationwide crude oil inventories following a largely sustained destocking pattern since late November 2021. Widespread winter storms across the United States likely weighed on fuel consumption but demand also softened in regions spared from inclement weather which might signal inflationary headwinds from higher oil prices. In its Short-term Energy Outlook released Tuesday afternoon, EIA estimated oil inventories in countries that are part of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development again fell in January and now stand at their lowest level since mid-2014. The agency expects global inventories will continue to draw in February, with an average Brent spot price of $90 bbl. However, the recent destocking pattern will reverse around March, April, and continue throughout the forecast period said EIA, which would likely result in lower crude oil prices. EIA doesn't forecast OECD commercial inventories to return to their five-year average until mid-2023. The oil complex came under selling pressure Tuesday following media reports of an apparent breakthrough in Russian-Ukrainian disagreements over the border dispute and Ukraine's bid to become a member of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization. French President Emmanuel Macron told journalists he was able to receive assurances from Russian President Vladimir Putin that the situation in Ukraine would not deteriorate any further, adding, "There is no security for the Europeans if there is no security for Russia." On the session, March West Texas Intermediate futures fell $1.96 to $89.36 bbl, and Brent crude for April delivery declined $1.91 for a $90.78 bbl settlement. NYMEX March RBOB futures plummeted more than 6 cents to $2.6251 gallon and the front-month ULSD contract slumped 6.28 cents to $2.7926 gallon.

WTI Falls Below $89 as Traders Eye Iran Talks, Stock Data -- Oil futures extended lower in early trade Wednesday as investors increasingly price in the return of Iranian crude oil exports following an apparent breakthrough in multilateral nuclear talks in Vienna, where diplomats are trying to revive the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, with a deal likely easing pressure on low oil inventory levels in countries that are part of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development. U.S. Energy Information Administration estimates industry stockpiles held by the industrialized nations in Europe, Asia and North America declined again in January to the lowest level since mid-2014. Demand has exceeded supply growth since mid-2020, according to EIA estimates, leading to six consecutive quarters of global oil inventory draws. What's more, even as a destocking pattern reverses around March-April, OECD stockpiles are unlikely to return to five-year average levels until roughly mid-2023, leaving the market vulnerable to supply disruptions and geopolitical tensions. Against this backdrop, traders anxiously watch the latest round of talks in Vienna on Iran's nuclear program, where diplomats returned to the negotiating table on Tuesday after a weeklong break of consultations at their respective capitals. The potential deal with Tehran could lift sanctions on as much as 2 million barrels (bbl) in daily crude oil shipments, which would be a welcome development for a rapidly dwindling crude stockpiles held by OECD countries. It is debatable how much Iran was able to export in recent months, with China a major buyer of Iranian barrels that are being sold through third party intermediaries. The country currently produces around 2.476 million bpd, still 1.5 million bpd below the 2017 output rate, a year before then President Donald Trump withdrew from the JCPOA nuclear arrangement. Separately, the American Petroleum Institute reported late Tuesday U.S. commercial crude oil inventories dropped 2.025 million bbl last week, missing calls for a 500,00 bbl build. The report also showed stocks at the Cushing, Oklahoma, hub down 2.502 million bbl. Gasoline stockpiles fell 1.138 million bbl in the week through Feb. 4 versus an estimated 1.4 million bbl build. API data show distillate inventories dropped 2.203 million bbl last week compared with an expected draw of 2.1 million bbl. Near 7:30 a.m. ET, March West Texas Intermediate futures fell $0.22 to $89.12 bbl, and Brent crude for April delivery slipped to $90.63 bbl. NYMEX March RBOB futures edged higher to $2.6320 gallon and the front-month ULSD contract traded lower near $2.7896 gallon.

WTI Surges Back Above $90 After Across-The-Board Inventory Draw, Gasoline Demand Rebound --Oil prices have stabilized today after sliding yesterday with WTI bouncing back up towards $90 after last night's across-the-board inventory draws reported by API. “Oil markets are walking a tight rope today as the specter of the Omicron variant appears to be waning in many parts of the world, encouraging countries to relax restrictions and boosting crude demand as a result,” said Louise Dickson, Rystad Energy’s senior oil markets analyst. “Rising demand often comes hand-in-hand with upward price movements, but a long-awaited supply relief could be around the corner, helping to narrow the imbalance and cool market sentiment. Inventories are now in the crosshairs for signs of demand revival amid ever tightening supply. API

• Crude -2.025mm (+100k exp)
• Cushing -2.502mm
• Gasoline -1.138mm (+1.4mm exp)
• Distillates -2.203mm (-600k exp)

DOE

• Crude -4.756mm (+100k exp)
• Cushing -2.801mm
• Gasoline -1.644mm (+1.4mm exp)
• Distillates -930k (-600k exp)

Official DOE data confirmed API's reported inventory draws across the board with a notably large crude draw (and drop in stocks at Cushing). gasoline stocks drewdown for the first time in 7 weeks...US Crude inventories (ex SPR) fell to their lowest since 2018... Source: Bloomberg Gasoline demand is rebounding from its Omicron crushing. Pre-storm stockpiling at retail stations could have spurred gasoline demand. In a few weeks, fuel suppliers will be turning over some diesel tanks in preparation for the transition from winter to summer grade gasoline.

Oil Ends Higher on Supportive Inventory Data, Softer USD - Following choppy trading for most of the session, crude and refined products futures pushed higher in market-on-close trade Wednesday, finding support from a bullish drop in U.S. petroleum stockpiles last week and a softening dollar index as traders positioned ahead of the release of U.S. inflation data for January that could reveal the fastest rise in the consumer price index in 40 years. The weekly inventory report from the Energy Information Administration was surprisingly bullish for the oil complex, showing across-the-board draws from U.S. petroleum stockpiles and stronger fuel demand for the week ended Feb. 4 despite winter weather, including icy conditions in some states from Texas to Maine, that made driving hazardous. Total crude and oil products stockpiles fell by 8.1 million barrels (bbl) to 1.171 billion bbl -- the lowest inventory level since mid-2014, and nearly 8% below the five-year average. Commercial crude oil inventories declined 4.8 million bbl from the previous week to about 10% below the five-year average at 410.4 million bbl compared with expectations for a 500,000 bbl build. Globally, industry stocks held by countries that are part of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development also stand at their lowest since mid-2014, according to EIA estimates released Tuesday. What's more, even as a destocking pattern is seen reversing around March-April, OECD stockpiles are unlikely to return to five-year average levels until roughly mid-2023, leaving the market vulnerable to supply disruptions and domestic and geopolitical tensions. Wednesday's inventory report was also supportive for the gasoline complex, showing domestic inventories unexpectedly fell by 1.6 million bbl to 248.4 million bbl compared with analyst expectations for inventories to have increased by 1.4 million bbl last week. Demand for motor gasoline shot up 900,000 barrels per day (bpd) to 9.126 million bbl -- the highest implied demand rate since the week of Dec. 24. Distillate stocks fell 930,000 bbl to 121.8 million bbl, and remain about 19% below the five-year average, the EIA said. Analysts estimated distillate inventories would fall by 2.1 million bbl from the previous week. Demand for distillates climbed 373,000 bpd from the previous week to 4.296 million bpd. In outside markets, U.S. Dollar Index weakened against a basket of global currencies to finish the session at 95.494, while also lending limited support to front-month West Texas Intermediate. At settlement, March WTI futures gained $0.30 to $89.66 bbl, and Brent crude for April delivery advanced to $91.55 bbl, adding $0.77 on the session. NYMEX March RBOB futures moved 2.83 cents higher to $2.6534 gallon, and the front-month ULSD contract rallied 3.23 cents to $2.8249 gallon.

Oil steady amid prospects of aggressive US Fed Reserve rate hike – Brent above $91/bbl -After rising more than 1% in early trade, Brent crude futures settled down 14 cents, or 0.2%, at $91.41 a barrel. U.S. Texas Intermediate crude, which rose more than $2 earlier in the day, settled up 22 cents, or 0.3% to $89.88 a barrel. After U.S. inflation data came in on Thursday at its hottest in 40 years, St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank President James Bullard said he wanted a full percentage point of interest rate hikes by July 1. Interest rates futures showed a 60% chance of a 50-basis-point hike in March after Bullard`s comments, and U.S. stock markets fell. The dollar gave up some of its earlier losses. A stronger greenback makes oil and other commodities more expensive for those holding other currencies. "Prices are confused between what appears to be strong inventory statistics and signs that the Fed is going to raise rates quicker than expected in 2022," said Scott Shelton, energy specialist at United ICAP. On Wednesday, oil prices rallied after data showed crude inventories fell unexpectedly last week to their lowest since October 2018, while fuel demand hit a record high. After the data, oil prices reversed a slide spurred by the resumption of indirect U.S.-Iran nuclear talks a day earlier. A deal could lift U.S. sanctions on Iranian oil and ease global supply tightness. Earlier this week, crude benchmarks hit seven-year highs on political concerns, and as a robust demand recovery from the coronavirus pandemic has kept inventories at fuel hubs globally at multi-year lows. On Thursday, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries said world oil demand might rise even more steeply this year as the global economy posts a strong recovery. The report also showed OPEC undershot a pledged oil output rise in January under its pact with allies to gradually unwind record output cuts put in place in 2020. Overall, thin supplies of crude oil, low storage and global output that is nearing a maximum are driving up prices,

Oil Prices Spike After U.S. Officials Say Ukraine Invasion Expected Next Week - Oil prices spiked Friday, with Brent hitting $95 a barrel and U.S. crude almost matching that on White House concerns that Russia will invade Ukraine soon. Even so, WTI settled below the day's highs and slightly down for the week after the White House walked back some of its own saber-rattling on the Russia-Ukraine conflict. US National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan told a White House media briefing that a Russian attack on Ukraine could happen by next week and would likely begin with an air assault. Sullivan, however, added that the White House did not claim that Russian leader Vladimir Putin has made a final decision on the matter. That caused oil prices to pull back from their earlier highs. New York-traded West Texas Intermediate settled up $3.22, or 3.6%, at $93.10 a barrel. WTI hit an intraday high of $94.65 earlier. For the week though, WTI was down 37 cents, or 0.3%, registering its first decline after seven straight week of gains. London-traded Brent, the global benchmark for oil, hit a session high of $95.65 before settling at $94.44, up $2.98, or 3.3%. That put Brent up 1.3% for the week, giving it an eight straight week of gains. Aside from the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the International Energy Agency also rattled energy markets by warning that global oil supplies might be dangerously short of demand. The Paris-based IEA in a monthly report on Friday, lifted its forecast for this year’s global oil demand by 800,000 barrels a day to 3.2 million barrels. What’s more, it estimated there could be a billion barrels shortfall by the end of last year between what the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies — known as OPEC+ — were supposed to have pumped versus actual deliveries to the market since the start of 2021. “The oil market is incredibly tight,” Toril Bosoni, head of the IEA’s markets and industry division, said in a Bloomberg television interview on Friday. “Prices continue to surge and are now reaching levels that are uncomfortable for consumers across the world.” Prior to the Russia-Ukraine brouhaha and the IEA warning, oil prices had lost more than 3% on the week -- first on concerns that Iranian oil supplies could legitimately return to the market through a Tehran-West nuclear deal and later on fears that the Federal Reserve could impose rate hikes of as much as 0.5% a month over several months to curb runaway U.S. inflation.

Oil soars 3% to 7- year highs on Ukraine jitters, tight supplies Oil prices ended 3 per cent higher on Friday at fresh seven-year highs as escalating fears of an invasion of Ukraine by Russia, a top energy producer, added to concerns over tight global crude supplies. Russia has massed enough troops near Ukraine to launch a major invasion, Washington said, as it urged all U.S. citizens to leave the country within 48 hours. Britain also advised its nationals to leave Ukraine as Prime Minister Boris Johnson impressed the need for NATO allies to make it absolutely clear that there will be a heavy package of economic sanctions ready to go, should Russia invade Ukraine. Brent crude futures settled US$3.03, or 3.3per cent, higher at US$94.44 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude rose US$3.22, or 3.6per cent, to US$93.10 a barrel. Both benchmarks touched their highest since late 2014, surpassing the highs hit on Monday, and posted their eighth consecutive week of gains on growing concerns about global supplies as demand recovers from the coronavirus pandemic. Trading volumes spiked in the last hour of trading, with volumes for global benchmark Brent climbing to their highest in more than two months. "The market doesn't want to be short going into the weekend ... if an invasion appears to be imminent and you know that there will be retaliatory sanction that will result in a disruption in natural gas and oil supplies," Andrew Lipow, president of Lipow Oil Associates in Houston. The International Energy Agency raised its 2022 demand forecast and expects global demand to expand by 3.2 million barrels per day (bpd) this year, reaching an all-time record 100.6 million bpd. [IEA/M] The energy watchdog's report follows the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries' warning earlier this week that world oil demand might rise even more steeply this year on a strong post-pandemic economic recovery. [OPEC/M] The IEA added that Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates could help to calm volatile oil markets if they pumped more crude, adding that the OPEC+ alliance produced 900,000 bpd below target in January. The two OPEC producers have the most spare production capacity and could help to relieve dwindling global oil inventories that have been among factors pushing prices towards US$100 a barrel, deepening inflation worldwide. The Biden administration responded to high prices by again stating this week that it has been talking with large producers about more output, as well as the possibility of additional strategic releases from large consumers, as it did late last year. Indirect U.S.-Iran nuclear talks resumed this week after a 10-day break. A deal could see the lifting of sanctions on Iranian oil and ease supply tightness. In the United States, drillers added the most oil rigs in a week in four years, with the rig count, an indicator of future production, rising 19 to 516, its highest since April 2020, energy services firm Baker Hughes Co said.

New nuclear deal ‘in sight,’ US says as senators vow to block it - A revived agreement to curb Iran’s nuclear program is “in sight,” the US said on Tuesday as international talks resumed in Vienna. Negotiators from Iran, Britain, China, France, Germany, and Russia returned to the luxury Palais Coburg hotel in the Austrian capital after a break last month for consultations with their governments. The US is involved in the talks indirectly. The aim is to restore the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, which collapsed in 2018 when the US pulled out. The JCPOA restricted Iran’s nuclear development in return for the lifting of economic sanctions. “A deal that addresses all sides’ core concerns is in sight, but if it is not reached in the coming weeks, Iran’s ongoing nuclear advances will make it impossible for us to return to the JCPOA,” the US State Department said. Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Saeed Khatibzadeh said that answers that “the US brings to Vienna will determine when we can reach an agreement. We have made significant progress in various areas.” Eric Brewer of the US nonproliferation watchdog Nuclear Threat Initiative said there remained “a combination of issues that require resolution,” including the scope of sanctions relief and what to do with nuclear equipment Iran had installed. “They are the final sticking points for a reason — they are contentious and require concessions that neither side has been willing to make so far,” he said. Russian negotiator Mikhail Ulyanov said the negotiating teams were “five minutes away from the finish line. A draft of the final document has been crafted. There are several points there that need more work, but that document is already on the table.” German Chancellor Olaf Scholz said the talks were at “the decisive moment.” However, a powerful group of 33 Republican US senators warned President Joe Biden that they would work to thwart any new deal unless Congress reviewed it and voted on its terms. Led by Sen. Ted Cruz, a long-time opponent of the 2015 nuclear deal, the senators told Biden they would use “the full range of options and leverage available.” The senators said any nuclear agreement with Iran was of “such gravity for US national security” that it would by definition be a treaty requiring the advice and consent of two-thirds of the Senate. Any deal that fell short of a Senate-ratified treaty would probably be “torn up in the early days of the next presidential administration,” they said.

Houthis renege on new deal to prevent Red Sea oil spill disaster - The Iran-backed Houthi militia in Yemen on Sunday reneged on a deal to head off an environmental disaster in the Red Sea, only hours after reaching an agreement with the UN. The Houthis first said they supported a new plan by UN officials to pump one million barrels of oil out of the decaying oil storage vessel Safer, which is moored off the port of Hodeidah. But as the UN’s Yemen coordinator David Gressly hailed “constructive” talks on the plan, which is also supported by Yemen’s government, the Houthis backtracked. They said the UN was guilty of “continued disregard of its obligations” over the tanker and accused the UN mission of wasting funds allocated for maintaining the vessel. The rusting storage tanker is more than 40 years old and has not been maintained since early 2015, when international experts fled as the Houthis took control of swaths of Yemen in a coup. The Safer crisis erupted again as the top US military officer in the Middle East arrived in the UAE for defense talks after a series of Houthi missile attacks on Abu Dhabi. Environmentalists have issued a series of warnings about the danger. The Safer has neither power nor a functioning fire-fighting system, and volatile gases are thought to be building up inside. “The risk of imminent catastrophe is very real,” Gressly said. “We need … action as soon as possible.” Greenpeace said last week that the Safer posed a “grave threat.” An oil spill would prevent access to Yemen’s main ports of Hodeidah and Salif, affecting food aid supplies for up to 8.4 million people. The environmental group said desalination plants on the coast could be affected, which would interrupt the drinking water supply for about 10 million people. Yemeni fisheries would probably shut down and ecosystems in the Red Sea would be destroyed, it said, with the impact reaching Saudi Arabia, Djibouti and Eritrea. The Safer crisis erupted again as the top US military officer in the Middle East arrived in the UAE for defense talks after a series of Houthi missile attacks on Abu Dhabi. Gen. Frank McKenzie, head of Central Command, said: “I think it’s a very worrisome time for the UAE. They’re looking for support. We’re here to help provide that support.” Last week the Pentagon deployed advanced F-22 fighter jets and the guided missile destroyer USS Cole to the UAE. McKenzie blamed Iran for the attacks on Abu Dhabi. “Medium-range ballistic missiles that were fired from Yemen and entered the UAE were not invented, built, designed in Yemen,” he said. “All that happened somewhere else. So I think we certainly see the Iranian connection to this.”

War threat escalates as Israel strikes Syrian army targets - In a dramatic escalation of US and NATO provocations against Russia, Israel launched multiple strikes on Syrian army targets near Damascus early Wednesday morning, killing one soldier and wounding five more. The attack brought a rare and sharp denunciation from Russia. It confirms the warning issued by the World Socialist Web Site in its statement “US-NATO escalate war threats against Russia: Are you ready for World War Three?” that irrespective of Washington’s plans or expectations, “The unleashing of a war with Russia would within weeks—if not days—drag in Iran, Israel, China and Taiwan.” Syria’s news agency SANA reported that some of the strikes came from fighter jets flying over southeast Lebanon and others from surface-to-surface missiles fired from the Golan Heights, which Israel has illegally occupied and annexed since capturing the territory during the 1967 war with its Arab neighbours. Syrian air defences had brought down some of the missiles, but the Israeli attack had caused serious damage to civilian buildings in Qudsaya city, northwest of Damascus. The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) claimed it had attacked targets in Syria, including a radar facility and anti-tank batteries, in response to an earlier anti-aircraft missile fired Tuesday into northern Israel that exploded in the air without causing any injuries or damage. While the rocket had not been intercepted by Israeli air defences, it activated warning sirens in Umm al-Fahm, a Palestinian city in northern Israel. The Syrian-launched rocket followed a series of strikes launched over the last 10 days by the IDF against targets in the Damascus area that Israel claims are Iranian weapons dumps or military outposts belonging to Hezbollah. Israel has launched hundreds of airstrikes on Syria, attacking government positions as well as fighters and facilities belonging to Lebanon’s Hezbollah and Iranian forces. According to the London-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, Israel had struck at least 29 targets in Syria in 2021, down from 39 strikes in 2020 which it said was highest since 2011. Israeli attacks had killed 130 people, including five civilians. Nearly half of those killed were affiliated with Iranian-backed militias.

Syria oil sector losses top $100bn since start of war - Syria's petroleum sector has incurred losses of more than $100bn since the start of the civil war more than a decade ago, the country's oil ministry said yesterday. Losses since the start of the civil war in 2011 have come to $100.5bn, the ministry said without elaborating on whether this was in terms of lost hydrocarbon revenues, losses due to damaged infrastructure or both. The last decade of war has brought about a collapse in Syria's oil and gas production to just a fraction of what it was, and seen the country make the switch from a net crude oil exporter to an importer. The ministry said oil production in 2021 averaged 85,900 b/d — well below the 383,000 b/d Syria was producing in 2010, before the start of the war. Of this, only around 16,000 b/d is being produced in fields under the government's control and therefore reaching Syria's two operational refineries, the 110,000 b/d Homs and 140,000 Banias refineries. The remaining 70,000 b/d comes from the fields on the east bank — an area that continues to be controlled by the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces and the US military. Syrian oil production peaked at just over 600,000 b/d in the mid-1990s and has been on the decline ever since. The ongoing unrest and dwindling domestic crude output have forced the country to rely on imports of crude and oil products from its sanctions-hit ally Iran to meet domestic demand. This has also forced the country's two refineries to operate well under capacity for much of the past few years. The ministry estimated that the Homs and Banias refineries, together, produced around 5.7mn t of oil products in the past year. That included 944,000t (21,800 b/d) of premium and 11,000t of regular gasoline, as well as 1.519mn t (31,000 b/d) of diesel, 2.734mn t (48,300 b/d) of fuel oil and 77,000t of asphalt. The ministry also put Syria's gas production at 12.5mn m3/d in 2021 — a little more than a third of what it was in the first quarter of 2011. Of this, around 79pc was delivered to the country's ministry of electricity, 6pc to the ministry of industry and 15pc to the oil ministry.

Australia to reopen to vaccinated tourists, two years after it closed international borders — Australia will reopen to vaccinated international tourists later this month, effectively bringing to an end one of the world’s longest and strictest coronavirus border closures even as the country wrestles with an outbreak of the omicron variant.Prime Minister Scott Morrison announced Monday that the country would welcome double-vaccinated overseas tourists starting Feb. 21, almost two years after Australia’s near-complete border restrictions earned it the nicknames of “Fortress Australia” and the “Hermit Kingdom.”With omicron outbreaks across the country and Australians among the most immunized people in the world, Morrison said it no longer made sense to keep out tourists who have had at least two shots.“The variant is here in Australia,” he told reporters. “And for those who are coming in who are double-vaccinated, they don’t present any greater risk than those who are already here in Australia. It’s a sensible and I think very important move for us to make as we … drive Australia back to a position of as much normality as we can achieve.”Morrison stressed, however, that visitors would be expected to provide proof of vaccination.“I think events earlier in the year should have sent a very clear message to everyone around the world that is the requirement to enter into Australia,” Morrison told reporters in an apparent allusion to the deportation of unvaccinated tennis star Novak Djokovic last month.

Thousands of students and teachers infected during first week of Australian schools - It has taken five days or less for the government and media lies used to justify the reopening of Australian schools to be exposed. The pious statements about children’s mental health and the importance of their learning have given way to the reality: an already underfunded public school system rendered completely dysfunctional as thousands of students and teachers are infected with a potentially-deadly virus and hundreds of thousands more are exposed. In New South Wales (NSW), the country’s most populous state, the majority of students only returned to classrooms last Tuesday. In three days, from Tuesday to Thursday, 2,417 students tested positive for the virus, together with 617 teachers and staff. The confirmed cases spanned 438 schools. It is not known how many are public and how many private. In Victoria, many students reentered schools on Monday, though some went back later in the week. There, the figures reported during the day Friday were 2,900 students infected and 410 staff. In line with near-identical reopening plans adopted by the NSW Liberal government and its Labor counterpart in Victoria, not a single school has closed as a result of the transmission. Government leaders and education bureaucrats in both states earlier expressed a great deal of concern about the wellbeing of students. Contrary to all previous experience, holidaying students were supposedly pining for a return to their classrooms. Online learning, which has been successfully rolled out on a number of occasions over the past two years, despite the refusal of governments to invest the necessary resources, was presented as the greatest evil. However, the very same politicians and state authorities, together with a motley crew of psychologists, right-wing epidemiologists and media commentators who function as their propagandists, have responded to the mass infections of the past week with a shrug or less. Some are even ghoulishly celebrating the spread of the virus. NSW education minister Sarah Mitchell declared: “I’m so pleased with how this first week has gone… I really couldn’t have wished for a better start to the school year.” An unnamed state education department representative told the Age yesterday, “Detecting coronavirus cases through our school rapid testing program shows that our program is working…” Schools were purportedly “managing their outbreaks really well.”

Canadians warn against ‘foreign interference’ as U.S. Republicans back ‘Freedom Convoy’ - Senior Canadian officials hit back Monday at high-profile U.S. Republicans who have voiced support for the self-described “Freedom Convoy,” as the group continued to block traffic in downtown Ottawa in protest of vaccine rules for cross-border truckers. The Canadian convoy has attracted the attention of U.S. politicians debating their own country’s coronavirus protocols and drawn support from Republican figures including former president Donald Trump. Responding to some of those critics Monday, Canada’s public safety minister, Marco Mendicino, said: “We’re Canadian. We have our own set of laws. We will follow them.” The demonstrations began in late January after Canada and the United States imposed a new rule requiring cross-border truck drivers to be fully vaccinated to enter their respective countries. Since then, the protests have grown into a broader condemnation both of pandemic-related measures and the government of recently reelected Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, as far-right extremists, conspiracy theorists and anti-government activists have joined their ranks. In what Ottawa Police Chief Peter Sloly characterized as a “siege” of the downtown areas, protesters have used big rigs and cars to block crucial traffic arteries, with horns blaring throughout the day. Ottawa police said they have launched 60 criminal investigations, issued hundreds of tickets, towed vehicles and made at least 20 arrests since Friday. National monuments have been desecrated and businesses forced shut over security concerns. A state of emergency was announced for the city Sunday. Calling Trudeau a “far left lunatic,” Trump said in a statement Friday that “insane covid mandates” are destroying Canada and urged the convoy to come to Washington to protest the United States’ public health measures. The demonstrations began in late January after Canada and the United States imposed a new rule requiring cross-border truck drivers to be fully vaccinated to enter their respective countries. Since then, the protests have grown into a broader condemnation both of pandemic-related measures and the government of recently reelected Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, as far-right extremists, conspiracy theorists and anti-government activists have joined their ranks.

Ottawa declares state of emergency over Canadian trucker protests that have blockaded the city for 10 days - The mayor of Ottawa, Ontario, declared a state of emergency on Sunday in response to the 10-day occupation of the Canadian capital in protest of COVID-19 vaccine mandates for truckers and other restrictions."Declaring a state of emergency reflects the serious danger and threat to the safety and security of residents posed by the ongoing demonstrations," Mayor Jim Watson's office said in a statement.Watson also said during a radio interview on Sunday that "the situation at this point is completely out of control," adding: "They have far more people than we have police officers."Much of the city center has been shut down by the occupation since thousands of people began arriving in late January for the protest, which has grown to include different groups demonstrating against a variety of public-health measures.Hundreds of large trucks, vehicles, and tents are blocking city streets, while protesters have used sleds and wagons to carry gas canisters so trucks in the protest zone around Parliament can refuel,CTV News reported.The "Freedom Convoy" initially set out to protest vaccine mandates for truckers who travel over the US-Canada border. Some truckers traveled across the country for a week before arriving in the capital. Canada's mandate, imposed on January 15, requires truckers to present proof of vaccination in order to cross the border. Truckers without a vaccine are required to quarantine and take a COVID-19 test when they return from the US. A similar mandate for US truckers was imposed on January 22. Ottawa Police said in a statement on Sunday that seven people had been arrested and 100 were issued tickets in relation to the ongoing demonstrations. The arrests have been for mischief and property damage to a business. The statement said there were 60 criminal investigations related to the protest.

Canada police in standoff with protesters blocking bridge to U.S. (Reuters) - A standoff between Canadian police and protesters blocking a key bridge to the United States continued on Saturday, more than seven hours after authorities moved in seeking to end the blockade of the important trade corridor. Demonstrators opposing the government's strict pandemic restrictions have occupied the Ambassador Bridge for the fifth straight day, snarling international trade and prompting President Joe Biden to call for an end to the siege. But there was still no sign when traffic would resume. While police have successfully pushed back protesters from the foot of the Ambassador Bridge, more people were streaming into the area and the operation appeared to have stalled. As the afternoon dragged on, some Canadians questioned what was behind the delay, given the order issued by a court on Friday to end the blockade and the imposition of a state of emergency declared by Ontario authorities. "It would essentially send a message that the state is not able to retain control, where it's attempted to do so," Michael Kempa, an associate professor of criminology at the University of Ottawa, told CBC News. "The longer this drags on, the longer people have the idea that what they are doing is not an illegal protest," he said. The Ambassador Bridge is North America's busiest land border crossing. Since Monday, protesters in trucks, cars and vans have blocked traffic in both directions, choking the supply chain Link for Detroit's carmakers. The "Freedom Convoy" protests, started in the capital Ottawa by Canadian truckers opposing a vaccinate-or-quarantine mandate for cross-border drivers, entered its 16th day on Saturday. It has morphed into a wider protest Link against COVID-19 curbs, with people joining in with smaller vehicles, including cars, vans and pick-up trucks.

France's Macron flies to meet Putin in risky bid to avert war - France's President Emmanuel Macron heads to Russia on Monday with one aim on his mind: Receiving assurances from Moscow that it will start to de-escalate tensions on the Ukrainian border. "We will discuss the terms to de-escalate," Macron told the French publication Le Journal du Dimanche ahead of his trip to Russia. "One has to be realistic. We will not achieve unilateral gestures, but it is indispensable to avoid a degradation of the situation before we build mechanisms and gestures of reciprocal trust," Macron added, according to a CNBC translation. Tensions between Russia and the West over Ukraine have ramped up significantly in recent weeks. The U.S., Germany, France and other NATO nations have raised concerns about Russian troop buildup on the border with Ukraine; while the Kremlin has denied claims that it is looking to invade its neighbor. Moscow has sharply criticized NATO deployments in Eastern Europe in recent years and China has backed Russia, saying last week that it opposes further enlargement of the military alliance. The U.S. has already refused to concede to Moscow's demands over Ukraine and NATO.. Monday's meeting in Moscow is extremely important for the French president, who has been pushing for a more independent European Union in terms of defense, while he also faces elections in April when his current tenure ends. "I have always had a deep dialogue with President Putin and it is our responsibility to build historic solutions. There is, I think, an openness from President Putin to achieve this," Macron told Le Journal du Dimanche.The EU, which brings together 27 nations, does not have a common military capacity — instead it relies on NATO for defense matters, where the United States play a fundamental role in decision-making. In this context, Macron has for several years looked at developing Europe's strategic military autonomy. But this has become an even bigger issue for Macron as France is in charge of the EU's rotating presidency until June.

Putin says proposals made in Macron talks are possible as 'basis' for further steps - Russian President Vladimir Putin left a meeting on Monday with French President Emmanuel Macron indicating some proposals had a "basis for further steps" of possible compromise amid rising tensions between Moscow and the West. "A number of his ideas, proposals ... are possible as a basis for further steps," Putin said at a press conference following his five-hour meeting with Macron in Moscow, according to France 24. "We will do everything to find compromises that suit everyone," he added, noting that he still blamed the West for escalating tensions in Ukraine. Putin did not provide further details but said he and Macron would speak again following the French president's meeting with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in Kyiv scheduled for Tuesday, France 24 reported. "President Putin assured me of his readiness to engage," Macron said after the meeting, according to the outlet. "There is no security for the Europeans if there is no security for Russia." The meeting came as Moscow has amassed more than 100,000 troops along the Ukrainian border and as U.S. officials say Russia could act on invading Ukraine any day now. Reports have indicated that Putin's military presence along the border makes up about 70 percent of what he would need for a large-scale attack of Ukraine.

Paris says Putin agreed to start no new manoeuvres near Ukraine for now (Reuters) - Russian President Vladimir Putin promised not to carry out new military initiatives near Ukraine for the time being as a precursor to possible de-escalation, a French official said after Putin had talks with France's Emmanuel Macron. The Russian leader, according to the French official, also agreed that troops taking part in a military exercise on Belarusian territory near Ukraine's borders would be pulled back once those war games are over. Putin himself did not mention such concessions when he spoke to the media after his six hours of talks with Macron in the Kremlin late on Monday. Reuters was not able to independently confirm Russia had made such commitments. The French official was speaking to reporters on condition of anonymity. Macron is the top Western leader to meet Putin since Moscow began massing troops near Ukraine. Western states say they fear Russia is preparing to invade; Moscow denies any such intention but says it could take unspecified military action unless a series of security demands are met. The French official said that during the talks Macron had agreed to "open dialogue on strategic questions," but there were no details on what that dialogue might involve. Putin has demanded changes to security arrangements in Europe, including a promise that NATO will never admit Ukraine, that missiles will never be deployed near Russia's borders and that the Western alliance will scale back its infrastructure. The French official said agreement was also reached during the talks to ramp up diplomacy under the so-called Normandy Format, in which France and Germany have acted as facilitators in talks involving Russia and Ukraine.

US troops land near Poland-Ukraine border amid tensions with Russia -A Polish military spokesperson announced that the first American troops landed near the Poland-Ukraine border on Saturday amid escalating tensions between Russia and Ukraine, Reuters reported.. "As announced, the first elements of the brigade battle group from the 82nd Airborne Division of the United States Army have arrived in Poland," the Polish military spokesman said, according to the news outlet. The troops landed in the Rzeszow-Jasionka airport on Saturday morning, with a Polish military source saying that they were U.S. chain of command personnel, according to the newswire. Separately on Friday, American troops also began arriving in Germany, Reuters reported. "We can confirm these arrivals are part of the forces announced by the Pentagon Wednesday," a U.S. European Command spokesperson confirmed to The Hill. "Collectively, this force is trained and equipped for a variety of missions to deter aggression and to reassure and defend our Allies. We have been working in close coordination with our Allies in Poland and Germany to set the stage for these deployments and arrivals, and we appreciate their support." The news of the American troop arrivals come as Pentagon press secretary John Kirby announced on Wednesday that roughly 2,000 troops would be deployed to Poland and Germany from Fort Bragg, N.C., in the coming days while another 1,000 troops would be repositioned from Germany to Romania. The deployment and repositioning of troops is to bolster the capabilities of the NATO military alliance in the area. However, Kirby stressed the troops would not be fighting in Ukraine, adding “They are going to ensure the robust defense of our NATO allies.” The development comes amid simmering tensions between Russia and Ukraine as the former has amassed more than 100,000 troops near the Ukrainian border. The international community remains concerned that Russia is readying itself to attack the former Soviet Union nation, though Russia has denied those allegations.

U.S. military prepares plans to help evacuating Americans once they cross into Poland should Russia attack Ukraine - The Biden administration on Wednesday readied plans for U.S. military forces to help evacuate Americans once they cross into Poland should Russia attack Ukraine, preparations that came one day ahead of a major Russian military exercise on Ukraine’s border that some officials fear could provide cover for an invasion. About 7,500 Americans are registered with the U.S. Embassy in Kyiv and thousands more could be in the country but the U.S. government has no way to track them, according to U.S. officials. The White House said there were no plans for the U.S. troops from the 82nd Airborne Division, which began arriving in Poland last week, to enter Ukraine. They will handle logistics and other support on the Polish side of the border and assist U.S. citizens who have reached Poland. “To be clear, we are not planning for a mass evacuation of American citizens from Ukraine,” said a White House official, who, like others, spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss administration deliberations. “President Biden has been clear that we believe Americans in Ukraine would be wise to leave Ukraine.” Pentagon spokesman John Kirby raised the possibility that U.S. soldiers could set up shelters or tents in Poland for evacuees, but he said he didn’t envision an operation in which the military would directly help remove civilians from harm’s way. Kirby said the State Department has been “exceedingly consistent and clear about warning Americans away from traveling to Ukraine.” Americans still there have the chance right now to “do the right thing — while there is time to do it,” he said. The Wall Street Journal first reported on the planned role for U.S. troops. U.S. and European officials worry the exercise could put Russian forces in position for a multipronged invasion of Ukraine, with troops invading from Belarus, to the north, and Russia in the east. Ukrainian troops will also begin drills Thursday using armed drones and antitank weapons provided by the United States and other NATO members. Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov has said the drills, scheduled to take place through Feb. 20, are a response to the Russian exercises near the border. Reznikov said Russia has massed 140,000 service members in the region. U.S. officials have said previously that number could rise to 175,000 and that Russia is staging the forces necessary for a full-scale invasion. Shuttle diplomacy by top U.S. and European officials, including French President Emmanuel Macron’s trips to Moscow and Kyiv this week, have produced no breakthrough.

Ukrainians demonstrate in Kyiv amid threat of Russian invasion Thousands of Ukrainians gathered in the nation's capital of Kyiv to demonstrate in the face of possible invasion by Russia, Reuters reported. The demonstrators walked through the center of the city with Ukrainian flags and signs saying “Ukrainians will resist” and “Invaders must die” as they chanted “Glory to Ukraine.” As demonstrations broke out, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky told Ukrainians not to panic, stating that it was not yet certain that Russia would invade. “The best friend of our enemies is panic in our country. And all this information is just provoking panic and can’t help us,” said Zelenskiy, according to Reuters. “I can’t agree or disagree with what hasn’t happened yet. So far, there is no full-scale war in Ukraine.” Zelenskiy, who recently attended Ukrainian police drills, said that it is true that a Russian attack could happen at any time. “We have to be ready each day,” Zelenskiy said, according to the wire service. “It did not begin yesterday. It began in 2014, so we are ready and this is why we are here.”

Russian teen sentenced to 5 years in prison for 'Minecraft' terrorism — A Russian teenager has been sentenced to five years in prison after planning to blow up a local headquarters of Russia’s Federal Security Service (FSB) on a video game. According to the Investigative Committee, 16-year-old student Nikita Uvarov planned to destroy the building on Minecraft, a popular world-building game. Uvarov, who comes from the small Siberian town of Kansk, was sentenced on Thursday morning, and was also told to pay a 30,000 ruble ($400) fine. The Eastern District Military Court found Uvarov guilty of charges of terrorism, namely, undergoing training to carry out criminal activity, his lawyer Pavel Chikov announced. Chikov heads Agora, an organization that represents those who may be victims of suspected human rights abuses by the authorities. The group is classified in Russia as a ‘foreign agent’ due to receiving funding from abroad. According to the investigators, Uvarov and two other males used the video game to construct the buildings of the Kansk police department and the city’s FSB division, and plotted to virtually blow them up. Russian newspaper Kommersant reported that the teenagers used the gaming world to demonstrate how a real explosion of the buildings would take place. Husband arrested for murdering Russian beauty queen Read more Husband arrested for murdering Russian beauty queen While being taken into custody following the court decision, Uvarov cried, “I'm a child, I’m not a terrorist,” it was reported. His co-defendants were exempted from criminal liability for “facilitating the investigation.”

Norway to scrap most COVID-19 restrictions - Norway Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Stoere announced on Saturday that the country will end almost all of its remaining coronavirus restrictions, noting that its health services are unlikely to be affected by high levels of infection in the future.The country, which ended most of its lockdown measures on Feb. 1, will now only keep restrictions in Svalbard, according to Reuters."We are removing almost all coronavirus measures," Stoere reportedly said during a news conference. "The coronavirus pandemic is no longer a major health threat to most of us. The omicron virus causes far less serious illness and we are well protected by vaccines."With the end of the restrictions, Norwegians will not be required to wear masks in crowded public settings. They will also no longer be asked to social distance, the news outlet noted.Entertainment venues, including nightclubs, will be able to reopen to full business capacity, Reuters reported.Those who do become infected with the coronavirus will no longer need to self-isolate but instead will be recommended to remain at home for four days.The government is also getting rid of the requirement for travelers to present proof of a negative COVID-19 test prior to departure and will not require them to register their arrivals prior to traveling. People who travel to Svalbard will still be required to take a COVID-19 test before they travel and after they arrive due to limited health services in the area, according to Reuters.

"A Bridge Too Far": Jeff Bezos' 417 Foot Superyacht Forces Netherlands To Dismantle Historic Bridge Over Waterway -Just when you thought Jeff Bezos was finally done laughing at the poors in the public spotlight, the former Amazon CEO has done it again.Bezos is in the news not because of his latest business venture, but because his new 417-foot superyacht, being built by Alblasserdam, Netherlands-based Oceanco, is forcing a local city to remove an entire bridge it has over a waterway.Bezos' new yacht is code-named Y721, Bloomberg reported this week, stating that it will "have to pass through Rotterdam, and navigate a landmark steel bridge known as De Hef" on its way out to sea. The sailboat's masts are so tall, it's unsafe to land a helicopter on board, the report says. So, in true billionaire fashion, "Bezos has commissioned a support yacht equipped with a helipad to trail alongside" of it.Here's the kicker: De Hef is already a lift bridge and can rise more than 130 feet into the air, but this isn't far up enough to make room for Bezos' monstrosity. As a result, the city has agreed to dismantle the center section of the bridge this summer. Rotterdam council project leader Marcel Walravens called the bridge dismantling the "only alternative" to complete “a very important project” economically. The company building the ship, Oceanco, will pay for the bridge to be dismantled, which means Bezos will likely be funding it. News of the dismantling has upset some locals, the report says. Rotterdam politician Stephan Leewis commented: “This man has earned his money by structurally cutting staff, evading taxes, avoiding regulations and now we have to tear down our beautiful national monument?”“This man has earned his money by structurally cutting staff, evading taxes, avoiding regulations and now we have to tear down our beautiful national monument?”

England’s oldest pub, possibly 1,229 years old, shuts doors due to coronavirus hardships– The Ye Olde Fighting Cocks pub in St. Albans, England, has seen it all: Since its first brick was laid, possibly as early as 793, near the ruins of an ancient Roman city well before the United Kingdom was formed, the drinking house has survived civil and world wars, famine and the spread of the bubonic plague. But hardships brought on by the coronavirus pandemic mean the pub — which once held the Guinness World Records title as England’s oldest, though others contested it — is shutting its doors. Christo Tofalli, who took over the lease of the heavily beamed pub in 2012, told The Washington Postthat the pandemic and the government’s public health restrictions squeezed his business until he couldn’t meet its financial obligations.Its insolvency leaves Mitchells & Butlers, which owns the pub, open to seeking new management of the possibly more-than-1,200-year-old business.The Christmas season, Tofalli said, was his “last chance” to rescue the Ye Olde Fighting Cocks, which, like much of the hospitality industry, was hit particularly hard by lockdowns, social distancing and capacity restrictions imposed by the government to stop the spread of the virus. With the omicron variant’s spread keeping people home, he said there wasn’t a strong enough surge of customers to make up the shortfall — even though the government in its December restrictions did not close pubs and carved out an exception to rules for wearing masks indoors for hospitality venues.