Fed's Bowman opens door to larger March rate hike -Federal Reserve Governor Michelle Bowman suggested Monday the central bank could raise interest rates at a faster pace than in previous cycles, as inflation remains “much too high.” In a Monday speech to a convention of bankers, Bowman said she supported raising rates when the Fed’s monetary policy panel — the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) — meets March 15-16. She added she will be “watching the data closely to judge the appropriate size of an increase,” opening the door to a larger-than-typical rate hike. “My intent would be to take forceful action to help reduce inflation, bringing it back toward our 2 percent goal, while keeping the economy on track to continue creating jobs and economic opportunity for Americans,” Bowman said at the American Bankers Association Community Banking Conference in California. The FOMC is almost certain to raise interest rates next month — almost two years to the day since it slashed its baseline interest range to 0 to 0.25 percent as the emerging COVID-19 pandemic roiled the economy. While the Fed usually hikes or cuts interest rates in 0.25 percent increments, some investors expect the bank to raise rates by 0.5 percentage points in March. “Between now and then, it's very important that we continue to watch how the economy develops, and understand whether or not things are improving or getting worse as we're approaching that decision,” Bowman said during a question and answer session with American Bankers Association President and CEO Rob Nichols following her speech. “At this point, I think it's too soon to tell, but ... as I mentioned in my remarks, I am supportive of beginning that rate increase process.” The Fed will soon receive pivotal inflation data that could influence the size of a March rate hike. The Commerce Department will release data Friday on January price changes as measured by the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index, the Fed’s preferred gauge of inflation. While the Fed aims to keep inflation at an annual average of 2 percent, yearly inflation hit 5.8 percent in December, according to the PCE price index.
Fed’s Bullard still wants to hike rates 100 basis points by July == Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President James Bullard continues to back raising interest rates by 1 percentage point by July 1 and sees little impact on the U.S. outlook from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. “The direct linkages to the U.S. economy are minimal so I wouldn’t expect that much impact directly on the U.S. economy,” Bullard said Friday during an interview with SiriusXM Business radio. “Of course, we will have to watch this very carefully and see what happens in days ahead.” Bullard’s remarks chime with comments from other officials backing liftoff next month, including his former St. Louis Fed colleague Governor Christopher Waller, who saw a strong case for a half-point move if the economic numbers keep coming in hot.
The Fed is likely to severely damage US growth by hiking interest rates hard and could trigger stagflation, Mohamed El-Erian says -- The Federal Reserve is likely to seriously hurt US economic growth by rapidly hiking interest rates over the coming year, and could even trigger stagflation, veteran economist Mohamed El-Erian has warned. El-Erian, chief economic adviser to Allianz, wrote in the Financial Times Monday that the Fed has moved too late to tackle inflation and will now be "forced into slamming on the policy brakes."US inflation shot up to a 40-year high of 7.5% in January. The Fed is widely expected to start raising interest rates in March, in an effort to reduce borrowing, spending and demand in the economy.El-Erian, who has long criticized the Fed's approach to inflation, said that the US economy and markets should brace for a painful period. He said the chances of the Fed raising interest rates without hurting either stand at just 10%.He said there's a 40% chance "that economic growth is severely damaged by a late Fed that is forced into slamming on the policy brakes in response to persistently high inflation."The economist said there's a 30% chance that the Fed simply gives up, for a period, on its aim of getting inflation to around 2%, instead hoping that supply chains will sort themselves out.And he warned that there's a 20% chance that the Fed harms economic growth but fails to control inflation, resulting in so-called stagflation.El-Erian wrote in the FT that stagflation is "the most worrisome outcome for livelihoods, financial stability and policy effectiveness." All the uncertainty "requires investors to anticipate more unsettlingvolatility and have a strong stomach for dealing with it (remember, many of the major investment mistakes occur at such times)."El-Erian was previously CEO of and co-chief investment officer of giant investment management company Pimco. JPMorgan said at the weekend that it now expects the Fed to raise interest rates for nine straight meetings. It said the hikes pose a risk to markets and economies.Nervousness about the Fed — and the Russia-Ukraine crisis — has rocked markets this year. The S&P 500 had fallen close to 9% this year as of Friday's close. Given the precarious economic situation, stocks have not yet fallen enough for investors to start buying the dip, El-Erian said.
The Fed Just Added Short-Selling and Margin Loans to Its List of Trading Restrictions for Fed Officials – Opening a Big Can of Worms - Pam Martens - On October 21 of last year, when the Fed originally announced its list of trading restrictions that it planned to impose on Fed officials, it made no mention of restricting its officials from short-selling (making bets on a decline in price) or preventing Fed officials fromtrading on margin. But when the Fed announced its finalized rules last Friday, “short sales or purchasing securities on margin” were added to the list of prohibitions. Why do we find that noteworthy? Because it was Wall Street On Parade that asked the Dallas Fed if its President at the time, Robert Kaplan, was shorting the market when he made those “over $1 million” trades in and out of S&P 500 futures contracts in 2020, a year when the S&P 500 dropped by as much as 30 percent between January 2 and March 23. The Dallas Fed, bizarrely, declined to answer that question. We wrote at the time: “If a member of the central bank of the United States shorted the market in 2020, in the midst of an economic and health crisis, it would be interpreted by millions of Americans as betting against the country. There is not a good explanation we can think of for why the Dallas Fed’s communications team would not want to get that question quickly disposed of.” Kaplan was a sophisticated trader who previously worked at Goldman Sachs for 22 years, rising to the rank of Vice Chairman. His financial disclosure forms suggest that Kaplan maintained a trading relationship with Goldman Sachs, since he lists proprietary products created by “GS,” short for Goldman Sachs. (See Kaplan’s financial disclosure forms from 2015 through 2020 here.) Goldman Sachs has been supervised by the Fed since 2008. There are three typical reasons for an individual to trade S&P 500 futures: (1) the individual thinks he or she can time the market’s moves; (2) the individual wants to trade before or after stock exchange hours; (3) the individual wants to make highly leveraged bets on the market’s direction, going both long and short. Kaplan was a voting member of the Fed’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) in 2020, where he had access to market-moving information throughout the unprecedented first year of the pandemic. There was no good reason for a man in this position to be trading in S&P 500 futures for his own account. Drawing further suspicions around Kaplan, he failed to comply with the Fed’s official financial disclosure rules to list the dates of his trades. Instead of listing the individual date for each purchase and each sale, he substituted the word “Multiple.” That eliminated the ability to detect a short sale as well as the ability to determine how many millions of dollars (or tens of millions of dollars) Kaplan had invested in his S&P 500 bets. Wall Street On Parade attempted to get Kaplan’s trading dates from the Dallas Fed. They refused. We then filed a Freedom of Information Act (FOIA) request with the Federal Reserve Board of Governors in Washington, D.C. At first, we were told that our request would be given “expedited” treatment. Then we were told that a response from the Fed to our request was being held up because “two or more components of the Board” had a “substantial interest in the determination of the request.” Wall Street On Parade was not the only news outlet unable to obtain Kaplan’s trading dates that were legally required to be released. The Wall Street Journal reported that it had tried and failed. Senator Elizabeth Warren’s office tried and failed to obtain them from Powell. On January 26 of this year, at Jerome Powell’s press conference following the FOMC meeting, Bloomberg News reporter Craig Torres had this exchange with Powell: Powell: “I know you’ve been all over this issue with my colleagues, Craig, on the issue of information. We don’t have that information at the Board. And, you know, I had — I asked the Inspector General to do an investigation, and that is out of my hands. I’m playing no role in it. I seek to play no role in it. And I don’t — I really — I can’t help you here today on this issue. And I’m sorry I can’t.”
Chicago Fed: "Index Points to a Pickup in Economic Growth in January" - "Index points to a pickup in economic growth in January" This is the headline for this morning's release of the Chicago Fed's National Activity Index, and here is the opening paragraph from the report: The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) rose to +0.69 in January from +0.07 in December. All four broad categories of indicators used to construct the index made positive contributions in January, and two categories improved from December. The index’s three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, edged down to +0.42 in January from 0.46 in December. [Download report]The Chicago Fed's National Activity Index (CFNAI) is a monthly indicator designed to gauge overall economic activity and related inflationary pressure. It is a composite of 85 monthly indicators as explained in thisbackground PDF file on the Chicago Fed's website. The index is constructed so a zero value for the index indicates that the national economy is expanding at its historical trend rate of growth. Negative values indicate below-average growth, and positive values indicate above-average growth.The first chart below shows the recent behavior of the index since 2007. The red dots show the indicator itself, which is quite noisy, together with the 3-month moving average (CFNAI-MA3), which is more useful as an indicator of the actual trend for coincident economic activity.
Six High Frequency Indicators for the Economy - These indicators are mostly for travel and entertainment. There was a clear negative impact from the omicron variant of COVID that is starting to ease. --- The TSA is providing daily travel numbers. This data is as of February 19th.This data shows the 7-day average of daily total traveler throughput from the TSA for 2019 (Light Blue), 2020 (Black), 2021 (Blue) and 2022 (Red). The dashed line is the percent of 2019 for the seven-day average. The 7-day average is down 17.0% from the same day in 2019 (83.0% of 2019). (Dashed line) The second graph shows the 7-day average of the year-over-year change in diners as tabulated by OpenTable for the US and several selected cities. This data is updated through February 19, 2022. This data is "a sample of restaurants on the OpenTable network across all channels: online reservations, phone reservations, and walk-ins. Dining was mostly moving sideways but declined during the winter wave of COVID and is now increasing. The 7-day average for the US is down 3% compared to 2019. This data shows domestic box office for each week and the median for the years 2016 through 2019 (dashed light blue). The data is from BoxOfficeMojo through February 17th. Movie ticket sales were at $81 million last week, down about 57% from the median for the week. This graph shows the seasonal pattern for the hotel occupancy rate using the four-week average. This data is through February 12th. The occupancy rate was down 14.0% compared to the same week in 2019. The 4-week average of the occupancy rate is below the median rate for the previous 20 years (Blue). This graph is from Apple mobility.. From Apple: "This data is generated by counting the number of requests made to Apple Maps for directions in select countries/regions, sub-regions, and cities." This data is through February 19th for the United States and several selected cities. All data is relative to January 13, 2020. This data is NOT Seasonally Adjusted. According to the Apple data directions requests, public transit in the 7-day average for the US is at 110% of the January 2020 level. Here is some interesting data on New York subway usage. Manhattan is at about 36% of normal. This data is through Friday, February 18th.
Q4 GDP Growth Revised up to 7.0% Annual Rate - From the BEA: Gross Domestic Product, Fourth Quarter and Year 2021 (Second Estimate): Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 7.0 percent in the fourth quarter of 2021, according to the "second" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the third quarter, real GDP increased 2.3 percent. The GDP estimate released today is based on more complete source data than were available for the "advance" estimate issued last month. In the advance estimate, the increase in real GDP was 6.9 percent. The updated estimates primarily reflected upward revisions to nonresidential fixed investment, state and local government spending, and residential fixed investment that were partly offset by downward revisions to personal consumption expenditures (PCE) and exports. Here is a Comparison of Second and Advance Estimates. PCE growth was revised down from 3.3% to 3.1%. Residential investment was revised up from -0.8% to 1.0%.
Real GDP increases 7.0% in Fourth Quarter -Real GDP increased at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 7.0% during the fourth quarter of 2021, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis’s “second” estimate. Real GDP increased 2.3% in the third quarter of 2021.The increase in fourth quarter GDP reflected the continued economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. In the fourth quarter, COVID-19 cases resulted in continued restrictions and disruptions in the operations of establishments in some parts of the country. Government assistance payments in the form of forgivable loans to businesses, grants to state and local governments, and social benefits to households all decreased as provisions of several federal programs expired or tapered off. The full economic effects of the COVID-19 pandemic cannot be quantified in the GDP estimate for the fourth quarter because the impacts are generally embedded in source data and cannot be separately identified.Real GDP increase in the fourth quarter was a result of increases in private inventory investment, exports, personal consumption expenditures (PCE), and nonresidential fixed investment that were partly offset by decreases in both federal and state and local government spending. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, increased.Consumption added 2.13 percentage points (pp) to growth, this follows a 1.35 pp addition during the third quarter of 2021. The increase in PCE was driven by services (led by healthcare) and durable goods (led by recreational goods and vehicles). Inventories rose, adding 4.90 pp to GDP. Residential investment added a total of 0.05 pp from GDP.Business investment added 5.38 pp to GDP growth. Investment in intellectual property added 0.53 pp to GDP, while investment in transportation equipment subtracted 0.42 pp. Government spending increased, subtracting 0.45 pp from GDP. Federal and state and local government subtracted 0.30 and 0.15 pp from GDP, respectively.
Wall Street Journal Mystified By Public’s Sour Mood Despite “Booming” Economy by Yves Smith --It takes a peculiar sort of blindness to be unable to understand that having more stuff doesn’t make people happy, or at least not for very long. Studies have repeatedly found that once a basic standard of living has been attained, along with a safety buffer, more does not result in more contentment. Of course a wee problem in America is that large swathes of the population aren’t even at that level. Nearly 12% of Americans were unable to afford a nutritious diet. Nearly half can’t pay for a $400 emergency expense (which is nothing in terms of what can go wrong with a car…but no wheels often means no work). And even those who are over that level aren’t necessarily very secure. They might be juggling jobs or otherwise subject to changing schedules. Bringing up children is costly and stressful. Covid has added a new level of underlying pressure. For parents, having their kids go to class might seem unduly risky for the child (and them) but they might find it too daunting to try to manage distance learning (even if that were still on) or home schooling. If they are front-line workers, they could well be expected to pick up the slack for thinned ranks for no/not enough extra pay…and could also be exposed to more-abusive-than-ever customers. If they are managers or business owners, shortages and other supply chain woes are a new source of hassle and business risk. And that’s before getting to the elephant in the room, Covid contagion, and for those who recognize it, the danger of suffering lasting damage even with a mere mild or asymptomatic case. Even though the Wall Street Journal focuses on the money part of the equation, it recognized that This Time Thing Are Different, and not in the usual presumed-positive way. From Why This Economic Boom Can’t Lift America’s Spirits:Americans normally are happiest when the economy is growing rapidly….But the record job growth followed record job losses in 2020, due to the Covid-19 pandemic and lockdowns. Inflation at 7.5% is eating up those wage gains for many Americans. And the unsettling effects of the pandemic, such as product shortages, are still playing out.That explains why consumers say they feel as bad as they did in the financial-crisis year of 2009, a recent Gallup poll showed. For the first time, Americans who say they are “not too happy” outnumber those who say they’re “very happy,” according to a survey from the nonprofit group NORC at the University of Chicago.Unlike the country’s last big inflation bout in the 1970s and early 1980s, when price pressure built over a decade, this time a cost-of-living runup unfolded in months…The latest phase of the pandemic has further eroded faith in leaders and institutions, leading to feelings of frustration, aimlessness and helplessness, polling shows, even among some who are doing well in today’s economy…
Financialization at Heart of Economic Malaise - COVID-19 has exposed major long-term economic vulnerabilities. This malaise – including declining productivity growth – can be traced to the greater influence of finance in the real economy.The deep-seated causes of the current resurgence of inflation, inequalities and contractionary tendencies have not been addressed. Meanwhile, reform proposals after the 2008-2009 global financial crisis (GFC) have been largely forgotten.Productivity growth has been declining in major economies since the early 1970s. As the World Bank noted, well “before the … pandemic, the global economy featured a broad-based decline in productivity growth”.World labour productivity growth slowed from its 2007 peak of 2.8% to a post-GFC nadir of 1.4% in 2016, remaining under 2.0% in 2017-2018. This slowdown has hurt over two-thirds of advanced, emerging market and developing economies.Except for a brief productivity spike in some countries around the turn of the century, labour productivity growth in developed Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) countries was declining, with trends low, but stable after the GFC.For Robert Gordon, this was mainly due to declining total factor productivity growth (TFP) – or slower technical innovation, organizational improvements and labour skill growth – in recent decades, particularly in industrial nations.For the World Bank, reduced investment and TFP growth deceleration have been roughly equally responsible for the productivity slowdown. Slowing working age population growth and limited education progress have also contributed.The United Nations noted, “as firms around the globe have become more reluctant to invest, productivity growth has continued to decelerate”. It blamed the slowdown on reduced investments in machinery, technology, etc.Slower transitions to more diverse and complex production have also delayed progress. Some supply shocks due to ‘natural causes’ – of which 70% were climate change related – have also hurt productivity growth.Growing inequality has weakened demand, slowing economic and productivity growth. As workers’ spending declined with labour’s income share, demand has been sustained by more public and private borrowing.The International Monetary Fund (IMF)’s April 2017 World Economic Outlook confirmed this trend. Productivity growth declines have lowered real incomes, reducing consumer spending, demand and growth.A joint report of the Bank of International Settlements (BIS), OECD and IMF also blamed unconventional monetary policies – very low, even negative real interest rates, and corporate bond purchases. Thus, corporate financial fragilities have weakened investment and productivity growth, especially since the GFC.
Why Congress needs to abolish the debt limit: Testimony before the House Budget Committee - Brookings.edu - I would like to make three points today.
- 1. The debt ceiling does not serve any useful purpose. It has not imposed any fiscal discipline on Congress.
2. We don’t know what would happen to interest rates and the standing of the U.S. if Congress someday failed to raise the debt ceiling, but we do know the effects would be negative. This is not a risk we should take.
3. Our country faces a lot of long-term economic challenges— high levels of inequality and limited economic mobility, slow productivity growth, climate change, high health care costs, and an unsustainable trajectory for the federal debt. We should address those directly. Bickering over the debt ceiling is a waste of time and energy, creates unnecessary uncertainty, threatens the benefits of issuing the world’s safest asset and undermines public confidence in our political institutions.
Editorial: Parts of Build Back Better might get through Senate - Remember President Joe Biden’s Build Back Better agenda? To hear the president tell it, the plan is far from dead. During a recent appearance in Virginia with Democratic U.S. Rep. Abigail Spanberger, the president talked about cutting prescription drug costs. “In my Build Back Better legislation that, with Abigail’s leadership, passed in the House of Representatives, we can do that,” he said. “Now we just have to get through the United States Senate — and we’re close.” It’s hard to find much evidence of that. In an article for The Washington Post, reporters Sean Sullivan and Seung Min Kim mentioned a luncheon of Senate Democrats where the topic of Build Back Better barely came up. Instead, the senators talked to administration officials about helping Americans deal with rising inflation through proposals like a temporary suspension of the federal gasoline tax. Biden, though, hasn’t given up on his broader agenda. He’s still talking about how his plan would cap child-care costs for many Americans and how utility companies are embracing the plan’s climate and energy initiatives. There have been talks between key senators and the White House about what could be salvaged from the president’s sweeping proposal, but those discussions have clearly stalled. West Virginia’s Joe Manchin, a key player in any deal, says there have been “no formal talks for quite a while.” Still, Connecticut’s Chris Murphy, a Biden ally, says the lack of obvious progress shouldn’t keep the president from promoting his vision. “I think it’d be a mistake to pivot off of a theme that he’s been talking about for a year — putting money into the hands of American families — just because it’s hard to get it done here,” Murphy told the Post. One of Manchin’s criticisms of the initiative has been that Senate leaders keep trying to wire around the usual process by skipping the committee structure and taking the plan directly to the floor of the Senate. Now, at the behest of Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, a handful of committee chairs reportedly have begun to engage directly with Manchin on what type of scaled-back legislation he might support. That seems like a wise approach. If Senate Democrats can’t agree on the broader package, they should at least take some of its more popular initiatives and put them forward as standalone proposals. The president, meanwhile, is taking his case directly to voters. “17 Nobel Prize winners in economics say the Build Back Better Agenda will ease longer-term inflationary pressures,” the president tweeted last week. “We can get this done.”
Is President Biden's Build Back Better proposal dead? Lawmakers say there's work to do to keep parts of plan alive - While other issues have taken the national spotlight in recent weeks, President Joe Biden’s Build Back Better legislation still lingers in the background and some lawmakers tell Spectrum News 1 that they would support measures to break down the massive social spending bill into parts. Senator Joe Manchin of West Virginia told reporters earlier this month that the legislation was “dead,” but several other legislators are eyeing proposals that would get certain portions of Build Back Better passed as separate measures. Manchin was one of the two moderate Democrats whose opposition doomed the legislation in the Senate last year. Representative Jim McGovern (D-MA 2nd) is among those who helped get Build Back Better, in its original form, passed in the House last year. “People will see the largest expansion of health care coverage since the affordable care act was passed,” McGovern said during a speech on the House floor last November. McGovern is among those in Congress who have said that compromise can be reached in Washington and pointed to last year’s bi-partisan infrastructure law as an example. The infrastructure bill was originally part of BBB, but was eventually separated and passed on its own with broad Republican support. “I think it is hopeful there are some things we can agree on,” McGovern told Spectrum News in January. Fellow Massachusetts colleague Rep. Ayanna Pressley (D-MA 7th), said she’s still “working to pass the Build Back Better Act” in a press release issued last week announcing some investments coming to the state as part of the nation’s investment in infrastructure.
Advocates hold out hope for Build Back Better's housing help – Housing advocates continue to hold out hope that a revived “Build Back Better” bill can make it through Congress and that if it’s slimmed down, funding for rental assistance, public housing repairs and new affordable homes aren’t dropped from the reconciliation bill. Democratic members of Congress and the state Legislature joined the Housing and Community Development Network of New Jersey Wednesday for the launch of a ‘HouseNJ’ campaign that will advocate for the BBB’s housing money not to get cut out. Under the plan passed by the House, New Jersey would receive 21,000 new rental vouchers, according to the group. The state would also receive $545.3 million from the National Housing Trust Fund, up from $24.3 million in 2021, enough to fund 5,000 new homes affordable to households at extremely low incomes. “It would represent the largest investment in housing infrastructure and affordability certainly in my lifetime and probably in the history of our nation,” said Staci Berger, the HCDNJ’s president and chief executive officer. U.S. Rep. Bonnie Watson Coleman, D-Ewing, said it’s disappointing that Senate Republicans and Sen. Joe Manchin – whom she referred to as “a certain Democrat from West Virginia" – stalled the Build Back Better bill passed by the House. “I’m disappointed, but I’m not giving up,” Watson Coleman said. “Progressives in Congress haven’t given up hope.” “These are all important funding priorities across the country, and we must continue to support them even if a Build Back Better Act does not become law,” said U.S. Rep. Donald Payne Jr., D-Newark.
U.S. has intel that Russian commanders have orders to proceed with Ukraine invasion - CBS News — The U.S. has intelligence that Russian commanders have received orders to proceed with an invasion of Ukraine, with commanders on the ground making specific plans for how they would maneuver in their sectors of the battlefield, a U.S. official told CBS News. The orders don't mean a invasion is a certainty, as Russian President Vladimir Putin could still change the orders if he changes his mind, the official said.After weeks of warning that an invasion of Ukraine was imminent, President Biden told reporters on Friday that he was "convinced" Putin had made the decision to invade Ukraine and said the U.S. believed Russian forces intended to attack in the "coming days." Mr. Biden has agreed "in principle" to meet with Putin in the near future, provided an invasion has not begun, the White House announced Sunday night. The exact timing and location of such a talk have not been determined, but if it does happen, it would occur sometime after a meeting scheduled for this week between U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov. Blinken told "Face the Nation" that the U.S. still believes Russia is "moving forward" with plans to invade, despite denials from Moscow that Russia is preparing to launch an attack. "Everything we're seeing tells us that the decision we believe President Putin has made to invade is moving forward," Blinken said. "We've seen that with provocations created by the Russians or separatist forces over the weekend, false flag operations, now the news just this morning that the 'exercises' Russia was engaged in in Belarus with 30,000 Russian forces that was supposed to end this weekend will now continue because of tensions in eastern Ukraine, tensions created by Russia and the separatist forces it backs there."
Biden adviser says Russian deployment into Ukraine is 'an invasion' - A top Biden national security adviser said Tuesday that Russia’s decision to send troops to two breakaway regions in Ukraine represented “an invasion” of the country and indicated "significant sanctions" against Moscow would be forthcoming. “We think this is, yes, the beginning of an invasion, Russia’s latest invasion into Ukraine,” White House principal deputy national security adviser Jonathan Finer said during an appearance on CNN. “And you are already seeing the beginning of our response that we have said will be swift and severe,” he continued. Finer said the Biden administration planned to issue more sanctions Tuesday in response to Russia’s aggression, which would “go directly at Russia.” Finer later denied there was any difference between the "beginning of an invasion" and an "invasion." “An invasion is an invasion, and that is underway,” he said. The remarks represented a decisive shift for the Biden administration, which had held off Monday on calling Russia President Vladimir Putin’s decision to send troops into the two Russian-backed separatist-controlled regions in eastern Ukraine an invasion that would trigger sweeping sanctions. Putin sent troops into the area after recognizing as independent the so-called Luhansk and Donetsk People’s Republics. The regions in Ukraine's Donbas region have been controlled by Russian-backed separatists since Putin invaded the Crimean Peninsula of Ukraine in 2014. “They will be significant sanctions against Russia,” Finer said of the forthcoming sanctions, indicating the measures would be imposed in waves if Russia continues “down a path toward war.” “This will be our severe and swift sanctions response to a Russian invasion and we will retain the right to impose additional steps, additional sanctions, if Russia continues to move forward,” Finer said. President Biden on Monday signed an executive order imposing sanctions on Luhansk and Donetsk, but held off on issuing the punishing sanctions against Russia the U.S. has promised if Moscow invades Ukraine. Republican and Democratic lawmakers called for sanctions to be imposed after Putin directed troops to perform “peacekeeping operations” in the regions. “To be clear, if any additional Russian troops or proxy forces cross into Donbas, the Biden administration and our European allies must not hesitate in imposing crushing sanctions,” Senate Foreign Relations Chairman Bob Menendez (D-N.J.), said in a statement Monday evening. “There must be tangible, far-reaching and substantial costs for Russia in response to this unjustified act.” Earlier Tuesday, Germany halted certification of Russia’s Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline, after Biden promised that the pipeline project would be halted in the event of a Russian invasion. Biden “made clear that if Russia invaded Ukraine, we would act with Germany to ensure Nord Stream 2 does not move forward,” White House press secretary Jen Psaki tweeted Tuesday. “We have been in close consultations with Germany overnight and welcome their announcement. We will be following up with our own measures today.”
Biden orders more US troops to Eastern Europe amid Russia-Ukraine tensions --President Biden on Tuesday directed additional U.S. troops to NATO’s eastern flank as Russia moved a step closer toward a large-scale invasion of Ukraine. “As Russia contemplates its next move, we have our next move prepared as well,” Biden told reporters at the White House. “Today, in response to Russia's admission that it will not withdraw its forces from Belarus, I have authorized additional movements of U.S. forces and equipment already stationed in Europe to strengthen our Baltic allies, Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania.” Washington has already deployed or repositioned some 6,000 U.S. forces to Germany, Poland and Romania near the countries’ borders with Ukraine as Russia has gathered an estimated 190,000 troops near its border with the former Soviet country and in Belarus. Western nations fear Moscow may soon move to mount a large-scale attack on Ukraine, a concern amplified by Russian President Vladimir Putin on Monday recognizing two separatist regions of Ukraine — the Donetsk People's Republic and Luhansk People's Republic — as independent and ordering troops to the area. Belarus also said on Monday that the withdrawal from its territory of Russian troops, forces there under the guise of joint war games between the two countries, would depend to a large extent on NATO pulling back its forces. “He is setting up a rationale to take more territory by force, in my view,” Biden said of Putin in remarks from the East Room. “This is the beginning of a Russian invasion of Ukraine.” Biden did not say how many troops would be sent to the three Baltic nations or where they would be repositioned from but said it was “totally defensive moves on our part” and the United States has “no intention of fighting Russia.” “We want to send an unmistakable message that the United States together with our allies will defend every inch of NATO territory and abide by the commitments we made to NATO,” he said, adding that Washington will also continue to provide defensive assistance to Ukraine. A senior defense official told reporters later Tuesday that the extra forces will be comprised of airmen and ground troops that will move “to NATO’s northeastern and southeastern flanks in coming days and are expected to be in place later this week.” The forces include an infantry battalion task force of approximately 800 personnel that will move from Italy to the Baltic region, up to eight F-35 fighter jets sent from Germany to “several operating locations along NATO’s eastern flank,” a battalion of 20 AH-64 Apache helicopters moved from Germany to the Baltic region and 12 Apache helicopters moving from Greece to Poland.
Before any U.S. troops are sent to Ukraine, some in Congress want a say - — U.S. Reps. Peter DeFazio of Oregon, a Democrat, and Warren Davidson of Ohio, a Republican, are leading a broad, bipartisan coalition of lawmakers urging the president to not send U.S. troops into Ukraine, or declare war, before receiving authorization from Congress. President Joe Biden has not dispatched troops to Ukraine following Russia’s invasion and has said he does not intend to do so, but on Tuesday announced sanctions on Russia, as well as on its oligarchs. Biden also said he would move U.S. forces and equipment already in Europe to the three Baltic states — Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania. In a Tuesday letter to Biden, the House members cited Article I in the Constitution that gives Congress the power to finance and declare war, along with Article II that names the president as commander-in-chief. They noted that “the War Powers Resolution of 1973 was passed into law after multiple presidential administrations failed to receive congressional approval for over a decade of unauthorized involvement by U.S. Armed Forces in hostilities in Southeast Asia.” The Democratic and Republican lawmakers acknowledged there’s no intention now to place U.S. troops in Ukraine. “However, if the ongoing situation compels you to introduce the brave men and women of our military into Ukraine, their lives would inherently be put at risk if Russia chooses to invade,” lawmakers said in the letter. “Therefore, we ask that your decisions comport with the Constitution and our nation’s laws by consulting with Congress to receive authorization before any such deployment.”
GOP unites around blaming Biden for Ukraine crisis - Lawmakers in both parties raced this week to condemn Russia’s incursion into Ukraine, denouncing President Vladimir Putin’s gambit as a brazen assault on international law, Ukrainian sovereignty and stability in eastern Europe. But that’s about where the bipartisan agreement ends. Republicans, while hammering Putin’s march toward war, also wasted no time placing the blame for the escalating hostilities squarely on the shoulders of President Biden, saying his administration cleared the way for Russia’s aggression with a series of foreign policy blunders, including the disastrous withdrawal of U.S. troops from Afghanistan last August. Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.), speaking to reporters in Kentucky on Tuesday, said Putin would not have been emboldened to send upwards of 150,000 troops to the Ukrainian border “had we not precipitously withdrawn from Afghanistan.” House GOP leaders quickly joined the attack, accusing the president of adopting a foreign policy posture that was simply too soft to discourage Putin’s bellicose designs for Ukraine. Across the aisle, Democrats are singing a very different tune, praising Biden and his administration for moving swiftly to unite NATO and other key allies in Europe and beyond, many of which joined the United States this week in adopting tough new economic sanctions on Moscow. The divergent partisan response highlights the extent to which cooperation on Capitol Hill has dissolved in recent years, even when it comes to foreign policy matters like Russian aggression, which stood through decades of the Cold War as a unifying force across a broad spectrum of political views. It also reflects the sharp shift within the Republican Party on matters of foreign policy since the arrival of former President Trump, whose “America First” mantra defied the muscular approach to international affairs promoted by the more hawkish GOP leaders who preceded him — but also won him legions of followers fed up with Washington’s entanglements abroad, not least the long and costly conflicts in Iraq and Afghanistan. Those internal GOP tensions have surfaced in glaring fashion this week, following Putin’s decision to recognize two separatist regions in eastern Ukraine as sovereign entities distinct from the democratically elected government in Kyiv. One camp of Republican traditionalists, represented by Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) and Rep. Liz Cheney (R-Wyo.), have pressed hard to counter Putin’s authoritarian instincts with tough new sanctions, more defense funding for Kyiv and a robust show of U.S. military might in the allied countries of Eastern Europe. An opposing wing, embodied by Trump and his closest followers, is pushing a much more isolationist agenda, arguing the United States has for too long suffered the costs of playing policeman to the world.
Russia crisis threatens to worsen Biden's gas price problem -The crisis between Russia and Ukraine is expected to exacerbate what has already been a political headache for the Biden administration: high gasoline prices. President Biden himself in a speech on Tuesday mentioned energy prices and acknowledged the possibility of "consequences here at home," saying Americans understand "defending democracy and liberty is never without cost.” The president on Thursday said the threat of a Russian invasion against Ukraine is “very high,” and Secretary of State Antony Blinken warned at a meeting of the United Nations Security Council that Russia “plans to manufacture a pretext for its attack.” With Americans focused on their pocketbooks and inflation soaring at a historic rate, further gas price increases could have have political costs for Democrats fighting to retain their majorities in the fall midterm elections. Uncertainty surrounding oil markets and Russia, the world’s third-largest oil producer, has already driven up prices, which were hovering at around $92 per barrel on Thursday. Experts say those prices could go higher and impact gas prices at the pump. “I would not be surprised at all if we reach ... $100 per barrel in the next few days,” Claudio Galimberti, senior vice president of analysis at energy research firm Rystad Energy, told The Hill on Wednesday. Galimberti said prices would be pushed up further if Russia actually decides to invade, noting that Ukraine could strike back by sabotaging a key pipeline. “The geopolitical risk premium will be even higher than it is right now,” he said. He also predicted that this would eventually reach consumers at the pump, saying it’s possible this summer that prices will be “well above” $4 per gallon. Giovanni Staunovo, a wealth management commodities analyst at UBS, told The Hill the Ukraine crisis comes amid a series of other factors that have disrupted the market. He noted low global inventories in oil and gas, a drop in investment in new oil and gas projects over the last several years and limited spare capacity in oil and gas. As a result, “oil and natural gas markets will be very sensitive to any disruption (real or perceived),” Staunovo told The Hill in an email. Vulnerable Democratic senators have signaled they understand the political ramifications and have begun to press for a suspension of the federal gas tax. “This is something that directly helps people right now,” Sen. Mark Kelly (D-Ariz.), who is expected to face a tough reelection race this fall, told reporters earlier this week in commenting on the proposed gas tax holiday. “When I talk to my constituents ... it’s the thing I hear most — is rising prices,” he added. “Gasoline’s a big part of it.” Biden acknowledged in a Tuesday speech that sanctions imposed against Russia if it invades Ukraine are likely to increase gas prices, saying, “I will not pretend this will be painless, there could be impact on our energy prices.” “If Russia decides to invade, that would also have consequences here at home. But the American people understand that defending democracy and liberty is never without cost,” Biden said.
GAS prices will INCREASE: White House warns Americans to expect higher energy costs after Biden announces sanctions against Russia -The White House has warned that Americans should expect higher energy prices after Biden announced sanctions against Russia after its president Vladimir Putin invaded Ukraine. However deputy national security adviser for International Economics Daleep Singh said he was hopeful that gas prices would decline over time. He told Fox: 'There are actions [energy consuming nations] can take with their strategic reserves, there are actions energy producers can take in terms of their spare capacity.'I'm not going to give you a timeline, but the collective power of those actions, and all the other tools and authorities at our disposal … will be effective in bringing down the price of gas and the price of oil.'The current price for gas is just under $100 per barrel. According to AAA, the national average for gasoline is $3.53 a gallon, up 20 cents in the past month. California has the highest-priced gas at $4.650, Why the Mountain Valley Pipeline Matters - while Texas has the lowest at $2.942. In New York state, it is currently $3.39.
Biden’s Ukraine Response Is Mired in Barrels of Oil - The Washington Post --When it comes to the Ukraine crisis and energy, we are less in a war of attrition than one of asymptotes. Russian President Vladimir Putin has recognized two breakaway statelets in eastern Ukraine. Not to downplay the importance or drama of this move, but like so many before it, it is another calibrated step toward the edge. In response, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz suspended approval of the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline from Russia — but held back from killing it outright. Broader Western sanctions came Tuesday, though not the most severe ones, because Putin’s latest move doesn’t yet meet the vague definition of a full invasion. If you want a simple reason for this incrementalism on the part of Washington and various EU capitals, it’s that Russia has energy that the West needs. This extends beyond Europe’s dependence on natural gas flows to the U.S. itself. The crisis between Russia and Ukraine is expected to exacerbate what has already been a political headache for the Biden administration: high gasoline prices. President Biden himself in a speech on Tuesday mentioned energy prices and acknowledged the possibility of "consequences here at home," saying Americans understand "defending democracy and liberty is never without cost.” With Americans focused on their pocketbooks and inflation soaring at a historic rate, further gas price increases could have have political costs for Democrats fighting to retain their majorities in the fall midterm elections. Uncertainty surrounding oil markets and Russia, the world’s third-largest oil producer, has already driven up prices, which were hovering at around $92 per barrel on Thursday. Experts say those prices could go higher and impact gas prices at the pump.“I would not be surprised at all if we reach ... $100 per barrel in the next few days,” Claudio Galimberti, senior vice president of analysis at energy research firm Rystad Energy, told The Hill on Wednesday.Galimberti said prices would be pushed up further if Russia actually decides to invade, noting that Ukraine could strike back by sabotaging a key pipeline. “The geopolitical risk premium will be even higher than it is right now,” he said. He also predicted that this would eventually reach consumers at the pump, saying it’s possible this summer that prices will be “well above” $4 per gallon.Giovanni Staunovo, a wealth management commodities analyst at UBS, told The Hill the Ukraine crisis comes amid a series of other factors that have disrupted the market.He noted low global inventories in oil and gas, a drop in investment in new oil and gas projects over the last several years and limited spare capacity in oil and gas.As a result, “oil and natural gas markets will be very sensitive to any disruption (real or perceived),” Staunovo told The Hill in an email. Vulnerable Democratic senators have signaled they understand the political ramifications and have begun to press for a suspension of the federal gas tax. “This is something that directly helps people right now,” Sen. Mark Kelly(D-Ariz.), who is expected to face a tough reelection race this fall, told reporters earlier this week in commenting on the proposed gas tax holiday. “When I talk to my constituents ... it’s the thing I hear most — is rising prices,” he added. “Gasoline’s a big part of it.” Biden acknowledged in a Tuesday speech that sanctions imposed against Russia if it invades Ukraine are likely to increase gas prices, saying, “I will not pretend this will be painless, there could be impact on our energy prices.” “If Russia decides to invade, that would also have consequences here at home. But the American people understand that defending democracy and liberty is never without cost,” Biden said.
Gasoline Prices Are On The Rise And Biden’s Hands Are Tied - In a February 22 White House speech responding to Russia’s initial incursion into Eastern Ukraine, President Joe Biden assured the U.S. public that, "As we respond, my administration is using every tool at our disposal to protect [Americans] from rising prices at the pump." But, the President didn’t detail exactly what any of those “tools” might be. That’s probably because he has precious few such tools at his disposal. Biden’s assurance echoed his promise made earlier in February to “work like the devil” to bring down high gas prices at the pump. Of course, he said that as part of an answer in which he also admitted, “I don’t know why they keep moving and all that.” Thus, the President promises to work hard to fix the problem, but admits to having little understanding of its causes. Unfortunately, secretaries of Energy and the Interior Department Jennifer Granholm and Deb Haaland have not made any serious proposals that could result in lower crude prices or higher domestic production either. Instead, Energy Secretary Granholm laughed when asked about the Biden Administration’s plan to increase oil production in the U.S. In the meantime, many energy industry executives have lost faith in the Biden Administration’s energy agenda. At a recent industry conference, the CEO of one large upstream company referred to the Biden administration as being “energy ignorant.” Another CEO admitted that their company has “no relationship at all” with anyone in the administration. How can any government official really understand an industry they refuse to have a conversation with? Biden and Granholm have spent the better part of a year promising to do everything at their disposal to slow the rise of oil and gasoline prices, efforts that have generally boiled down to their urging the OPEC+ nations to produce more oil. The net result has been an inexorable rise in energy costs. That $100 WTI price is up by 145% from Biden’s election day. AAA reports that the average price for a gallon of regular gasoline stood at an 8-year high of $3.54 Thursday morning, up by over 40% from 12 months ago. President Biden is left with few options to materially lower crude prices in the short term. He already tried to use one of the few “tools” he has to possibly influence rising prices with the release of 50 million barrels of oil from the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve he announced last November. During an appearance on CNN Newsroom on Feb. 9, White House Council of Economic Advisors member Jared Bernstein claimed without evidence that the President’s November order to sell 50 million barrels from it resulted in “the price of gasoline actually fell by ten cents a gallon.” In reality, crude prices rose on November 23, the day Biden announced his order. They only started falling on November 25, when news of the Omicron COVID variant hit the global media, stoking market fears of falling oil demand. But those fears had dissipated by mid-December, after which oil and gasoline prices resumed their inexorable rise. Biden’s economic advisor then suggested that the President could order another release from the U.S. SPR, a doubling down on November’s failed tactic. It failed once, so let’s try it again, he seemed to be saying. The reality is that no American president really has many ways to try to influence oil prices or gasoline prices at the pump. What few tools they do have – like approving domestic pipelines and providing regulatory relief for the U.S. oil and gas industry – are tools the Biden Administration is ideologically opposed to implementing.
Over half disapprove of Biden's handling of Ukraine in new poll --Barely one-third of Americans approve of the way President Biden is handling the threat of a Russian invasion of Ukraine, according to a new poll released days after Vladimir Putin ordered “peacekeeping” forces to two breakaway regions of the former Soviet republic.The Gallup survey found that only 36 percent of Americans back the president’s response to the “situation with Russia” while 55 percent disapproved. Fewer than two-thirds of Democrats (64 percent) support Biden’s handling of the matter while 35 percent of independents approve of his efforts. Only 11 percent of Republicans offered the same support. By contrast, the survey found that 86 percent of Republican respondents disapprove of Biden’s actions in response to tensions with Russia, while 53 percent of independents and 31 percent of Democrats felt similarly. The poll was released one day after Biden announced what he called the “first tranche” of sanctions targeting Russian banks and the elite class, and two days after Putin recognized the self-declared pro-Russia Donetsk People’s Republic (DPR) and Luhansk People’s Republic (LPR) as independent states with claims on Ukraine-held territory — stoking fears of a large-scale invasion.
Donald Trump sides with Vladimir Putin as Joe Biden tries to stop a war - It took only 24 hours for Donald Trump to hail Russian President Vladimir Putin's dismembering of independent, democratic, sovereign Ukraine as an act of "genius." The former President often accuses his enemies falsely of treason, but his own giddy rush to side with a foreign leader who is proving to be an enemy of the United States and the West is shocking even by Trump's self-serving standards. As President Joe Biden reprises the fabled presidential role of leading the free world, the predecessor who wants to succeed him is showing Putin that impunity, dictator-coddling and hero worship will return if he wins back the White House. Trump's remarks on a conservative radio show on Tuesday will not only find a warm welcome in the Kremlin. They also will concern allies standing alongside the US against Russia who fear for NATO's future if Trump returns. Trump also sent an unmistakable message to Republicans, who are already playing into Putin's hands by branding the current President as weak, that siding with a US foe is the way into the ex-President's affections ahead of this year's midterm primaries.Trump didn't take long to make sure Putin knew he approved of his movement of troops into parts of eastern Ukraine, knowing that his comments would be picked up and beamed around the world. "I went in yesterday and there was a television screen, and I said, 'This is genius.' Putin declares a big portion of the Ukraine, of Ukraine, Putin declares it as independent. Oh, that's wonderful," The ex-President added: "So Putin is now saying, 'It's independent,' a large section of Ukraine. I said, 'How smart is that?' And he's going to go in and be a peacekeeper. That's the strongest peace force," Trump said. "We could use that on our southern border. That's the strongest peace force I've ever seen. ... Here's a guy who's very savvy. ... I know him very well. Very, very well."
U.S. sanctions Russia for declaring independence of eastern Ukraine territories - President Joe Biden on Monday issued an executive order sanctioning Russia for recognizing two breakaway territories in eastern Ukraine as independent. “The Russian Federation’s purported recognition of the so-called Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR) or Luhansk People’s Republic (LNR) regions of Ukraine contradicts Russia’s commitments under the Minsk agreements and further threatens the peace, stability, sovereignty, and territorial integrity of Ukraine, and thereby constitutes an unusual and extraordinary threat to the national security and foreign policy of the United States,” the order stated. The executive order expands upon previous sanctions issued when Russia invaded Crimea in 2014 and prohibits new U.S. investment in the breakaway regions, imports and exports from the regions, and financial and property transactions as determined by the U.S. Treasury. Earlier Monday, White House press secretary Jen Psaki said the U.S. had been prepared for Russia’s move. Biden’s executive order will “prohibit new investment, trade, and financing by U.S. persons to, from, or in the so-called DNR and LNR regions of Ukraine” as well as “provide authority to impose sanctions on any person determined to operate in those areas of Ukraine,” Psaki said in a statement. Both the so-called Donetsk People’s Republic and Luhansk People’s Republic are controlled by Russia-backed forces. “To be clear: these measures are separate from and would be in addition to the swift and severe economic measures we have been preparing in coordination with Allies and partners should Russia further invade Ukraine,” the White House said. “We are continuing to closely consult with Allies and partners, including Ukraine, on next steps and on Russia’s ongoing escalation along the border with Ukraine.” Secretary of State Antony Blinken called Putin’s decision a “flagrant disrespect for international law and norms,” and noted the executive order is designed to prevent Russia from profiting off of the move.
Is Washington Begging for War with Russia? -In the February 16th press briefing by Maria Zakahrova, spokeswoman for The Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation, we find some interesting and even humorous comments regarding the ongoing narrative that Russia is preparing to invade Ukraine, many of which will never appear in the West's mainstream media. Let's look at some of her key comments, in particular, her comments on the Western media. Zakharova opens the briefing with this line: "Sorry, I was held up for a minute. I was double-checking whether we are invading or not. We’re not invading! After outlining the meetings that Sergey Lavrov will have over the next week with various world leaders and their underlings, Zakharova weighs in on Russia's viewpoint of "the fakes": "Perhaps this is a standing section we have lacked until now and it’s high time we started one – enough to make a cat laugh. This is what Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov has termed “information terrorism” on the part of the Anglo-Saxon countries, namely a “tandem” of official and media narrative. On the one hand, this is laughably absurd, while being terribly sad, on the other. The leading Western countries’ domestic and foreign policy thought has been exposed with a dramatic force. And these are the countries that are controlling the goings-on everywhere, including in NATO. They are seeking to influence the processes unfolding inside even the associations of which they are not members. I am referring to the EU. These are the countries that laid claim to leadership in our world and posed as “guarantors” of this or that – security, freedom, whatever. All of you can see what we have arrived at. Surprisingly, it is these countries that have created within organisations under their control (I have primarily NATO in mind, but their supervisee, the EU, is also in this category) a huge number of units whose duty it is to fight fakes. I think they have supplied themselves with postmortems to complete for a year ahead. It has been a long time since I last saw such an amount of fakes, disinformation, planted stories, slander and condensed lies. The concentration of disinformation was not as dense even in the case of Syria." She then goes on to discuss "provocations concerning Ukraine", once again calling out the Western media: "Today, we are marking yet another day of “non-aggression” against Ukraine. We are doing this from the point of view of common sense and reality, which defy any likelihood of a “war” which has been promised to us with such insistence. The West – Washington and London – and its media, including Bloomberg, CNN, The New York Times, The Sun, UK tabloids, and others were active in publishing fakes and even photographs of the “attack in progress.” Yesterday, a fantastically silly report was aired by CBS. Unfortunately for many Western media outlets, this “war” has failed to materialise again. It would be funny, but we are using the term “war,” which is scaring the whole world. Yes, they were trying to do all they can for it to occur.
Who in the Lord’s name gave the US the right? A question for Mr. Biden - On Tuesday afternoon, US President Joe Biden delivered remarks from the East Room of the White House announcing sanctions against Russia in response to its recognition of the independence of two provinces in Eastern Ukraine. The disarray in the White House was reflected in the timing of the meeting itself. Initially scheduled for 2:00 p.m., it was moved to 1:00 p.m. late Tuesday morning. The assembled reporters, however, were kept waiting for an hour and half before Biden emerged to deliver a perfunctory 10-minute statement and promptly left without taking any questions. In the course of his remarks, Biden asked a telling question: “Who in the Lord’s name does Putin think gives him the right to declare new so-called ‘countries’ on territory that belongs to his neighbors?” This is a question, however, that much of the world would like Biden himself to answer. The “flagrant violation of international law” that Biden accused Russia of perpetrating is precisely what the United States has repeatedly done, with Biden directly and personally involved. At one point Biden began to refer to the history behind the present conflict over Ukraine. Referring to Putin’s address Monday on the recognition of Donetsk and Lugansk, Biden said: “Yesterday, we all heard clearly the full extent of Vladimir Putin’s twisted rewrite of history, going back more than a century as he waxed eloquently, noting that…” In mid-sentence, the aging US president thought better of his brief excursion from his written remarks: “Well, I’m not going to go into it.” Let us, however, “go into it.” One can oppose, as socialists do, the reactionary chauvinism, tinged with neo-tsarist nostalgia, of the Putin regime while exposing the blatant lying and hypocrisy that pervades every aspect of US policy in the present crisis.
Russia-Ukraine Impact on USA Gasoline Prices -U.S. gasoline prices could continue to increase due to the Russia-Ukraine conflict. That’s according to AAA spokesperson Devin Gladden, who made the statement in a comment sent to Rigzone prior to Russia’s latest escalation. “If the conflict escalates with more sanctions and retaliatory actions, the oil markets will likely respond by increasing the price of crude oil to reflect more risk in the market,” Gladden told Rigzone late Wednesday. “Additionally, the U.S. is beginning to enter the spring/summer driving season, a time when gas demand and the expensive-to-produce summer blend gasoline typically increases pump prices,” Gladden added. “This means that in the coming weeks, gasoline prices are likely going to continue rising as the conflict plays out and more U.S. drivers hit the roads as winter weather clears,” the AAA spokesperson went on to say. Looking at how high gas prices in the U.S. could go, Gladden said the national average could hit $4 per gallon this year due to the steady rise in oil prices. “As a result, there could be a few states (in the west coast) that set new records close to or at $5.00 per gallon,” Gladden added. As of February 24, the U.S. average regular gasoline price stood at $3.54, according to the AAA’s website. Yesterday’s average stood at $3.53, the week ago average stood at $3.52 and the month ago average stood at $3.33, AAA’s website shows. The year ago regular gas price average stood at $2.66, AAA’s site outlines. The highest recorded average regular gas price stands at $4.11, which was hit on July 17, 2008, AAA’s site shows.
Federal gas tax cut follies — why suspending the gas tax remains a bad idea --In spring 2008 as the American people were grappling with increased fuel prices, something unusual happened on the presidential campaign trail.Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton (D-N.Y.) and Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.), the presumptive GOP nominee, sought to capitalize on the situation when they both endorsed a proposal to suspend the 18.4-cents-per gallon federal gas tax for the summer travel season.Fellow candidate Sen. Barack Obama (D-Ill.) came out strongly against the idea, saying: "We're arguing over a gimmick that would save you half a tank of gas over the course of the entire summer so that everyone in Washington can pat themselves on the back and say they did something. Well, let me tell you, this isn't an idea designed to get you through the summer, it's designed to get them through an election."Obama was right. The Bush administration shared his view and the plan ran out of gas. But in Washington, such proposals are never truly buried in the policy graveyard.Legislation introduced Feb. 9 by six U.S. senators facing re-election this fall proposes to suspend the federal gas tax until the end of the year. The action, which came less than 90 days after Joe Biden signed the historic Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act, could have the unintended consequence of unraveling the new law’s revenue base, while simultaneously not achieving their desired outcome: immediate price relief at the gas pump.A June 2020 analysis from the Transportation Investment Advocacy Center shows that 29 states both increased and decreased their motor fuel user fee rates from 2013 to 2018. A total of 113 adjustments were made, ranging from one-time increases approved by state legislatures to automatic changes for variable rates based on formulas written into law.Of the 113 changes, the rate increased 75 times and decreased 38 times. Notably, the report found that on average, just one-third of an increase or decrease was passed through to consumers in the retail price on the day that change took effect. Its impact quickly evaporated over time.Moreover, the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s “Short-Term Energy Outlook” Feb. 8 has projected a 57-cent-per-gallon decline in gasoline prices over the next year, driven by market factors.The Senate bill could also establish an alarming precedent for future congresses to suspend the federal gas tax during times of economic distress or when fuel prices are deemed too high. Such a practice would shroud the largest revenue source for federal highway and public transportation investment in disruptive uncertainty for states eager to make infrastructure improvements. No wonder that economist and former U.S. Treasury Secretary Larry Summers has dubbed such a gas tax holiday “short-sighted, ineffective, goofy and gimmicky.”
Biden sanctions Yemen's Houthi-financing network amid increase in terrorist attacks - The Biden administration on Wednesday issued sanctions targeting an international business network that funds Yemen’s Houthi rebels and their attacks on civilians in Yemen and the Persian Gulf, an action that is part of efforts to bankrupt funds that prolong the country’s seven-year civil war. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said that the sanctions were closely coordinated with Gulf partners as a response to Houthi attacks inside Yemen and recent terrorist attacks targeting civilian sites in Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates over recent weeks, which have caused numerous civilian casualties. “We continue to work closely with our regional partners to act decisively against those seeking to prolong this war for their own goals,” Blinken said in a statement. “The United States remains firmly committed to helping Saudi Arabia and the UAE defend themselves and the tens of thousands of U.S. citizens living in the Gulf against these Houthi attacks.” The Biden administration is under pressure to more forcefully confront Yemen’s Houthis, which are backed by Iran, after lifting a terrorist designation on the group that was imposed by former President Trump in the waning days of the administration. Critics of the administration’s decision say that delisting the Houthis has emboldened the group to carry out terrorist attacks, most recently against a commercial airport in Saudi Arabia on Feb. 10 that injured at least a dozen civilians. The Houthis have also taken responsibility for other terrorist attacks against Saudi Arabia, and in January the militant group launched at least two attacks against the UAE with missiles and armed drones. Biden said in January that he was considering re-designating the Houthis a terrorist organization. But Democrats, officials with the United Nations and human rights workers argue such a designation against the Houthis would make it impossible for humanitarian groups to deliver critical assistance to an estimated 21 million people in need, about two-thirds of the population. “We urge you not to pursue a designation that would have little practical impact on the Houthi leadership but would have catastrophic humanitarian consequences,” Senator Chris Murphy (D-Conn.), a member of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, wrote in a letter to Biden on Wednesday that was signed by 11 of his Democratic colleagues.
China to sanction US weapons firms over arms sale -- The Chinese government has decided to take countermeasures against Raytheon Technologies and Lockheed Martin, two US weapon companies that have long been involved in the United States' arms sales to Taiwan, Foreign Ministry spokesman Wang Wenbin said on Monday. The move came two weeks after the US announced a $100 million military sale to the island, which elicited opposition and condemnation from China. The sanctions were decided according to China's Anti-Foreign Sanctions Law and aim to safeguard the country's sovereignty and security interests, Wang told a news conference. The US' sale of weapons to China's Taiwan region violates the one-China principle and the stipulations of the three China-US joint communiques, especially the one signed on Aug 17, 1982, and seriously undermines China's sovereignty and security and China-US ties as well as peace and stability across the Taiwan Straits, Wang said. "China once again urges the US government and relevant parties to observe the one-China principle and the stipulations of the three China-US joint communiques, stop selling weapons to Taiwan and cut US-Taiwan military ties," Wang said. China will continue to take all necessary measures according to the development of the situation to protect its sovereignty and security, Wang added.
Beijing condemns Washington’s “irresponsible and immoral” behaviour in the Ukraine crisis The Chinese foreign ministry yesterday condemned Washington for deliberately inflaming the danger of war in the Ukraine crisis. It criticised US President Biden’s imposition of further sanctions on Moscow after Russian President Putin signed a decree recognising two eastern Ukrainian regions as “independent” and dispatched Russian troops into these areas. At a press conference, foreign ministry spokeswoman Hua Chunying said the US was “raising tensions, creating panic, and even playing up the schedule of war… If someone is adding fuel to the fire while blaming others… then that behaviour is irresponsible and immoral.” Asked if China would impose sanctions on Russia, Hua stated that the Chinese government believed that “sanctions have never been a fundamental and effective way to solve problems.” She reiterated that the Chinese government regarded the US imposition of unilateral sanctions, not just on Russia but other countries, including China, as “illegal.” “Since 2011, the United States has imposed sanctions on Russia more than 100 times, but we can all think about it calmly,” Hua said, adding: “Have US sanctions solved the problem?” She repeated China’s plea for negotiations to maintain regional peace and stability.
White House announces new steps for long-term supply chain resilience - The White House announced steps focusing on long-term supply chain resilience to mark the one-year anniversary since President Biden signed an executive order to strengthen the nations supply chains in the midst of disruptions from the COVID-19 pandemic. The executive order, signed one year ago on Thursday, involved an all-government approach to assessing vulnerabilities in the supply chain and senior administration officials said supply chains has been “a personal focus for President Biden.” Officials also said that, because of focus on supply chains, the U.S. is prepared to combat any disruptions that Russia's invasion of Ukraine would cause to the American economy. On Thursday, seven cabinet agencies will publish reports identifying key weaknesses in supply chains, devising multi-year strategies to address them. The White House is also publishing a capstone report that provides an overview of the key actions the administration has taken. Officials called the report a “crucial milestone” and called supply chain resilience “an enduring national priority. “We know that our work is far from over,” officials said. Officials announced new steps, including providing funding from the bipartisanship infrastructure law to move critical goods from ships to shelves faster and cheaper. The steps also aim to build on last year’s American Rescue Plan’s toward a more competitive and resilient meat and poultry supply chain, providing $25 million in grants for the food processing workforce. The administration also aims to expand access to capital for small manufacturers, advance technological leadership of small and large manufacturers, and invest in sustainable domestic production and processing of critical minerals. Additionally, the Export-Import Bank board will vote on a new domestic initiative, including providing financing priority to environmentally beneficial small businesses this spring. The administration plans to issue a Buy American rule that will create a new category of critical products that will be eligible for enhanced price preferences. The rule will allow the federal government to pay an additional premium for critical domestic-made products essential to the supply chain and allow American manufacturers an easier time securing government contracts. It will also expand the Department of Health and Human Services’ Defense Product Act office to provide loans and grants to ensure timely availability of essential domestic industrial resources.
US Centers for Disease Control withheld critical statistics on COVID-19 for more than a year - On Sunday, the New York Times reported that the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) has been withholding the publication of critical data that could have helped local and state public health departments better target their responses to stem infections and protect lives. Instead, they have been cherry-picking vital information to present an upbeat assessment of the state of the pandemic, which has only further endangered lives in the process. The author of the report, Apoorva Mandavilli, wrote, “Two full years into the pandemic, the agency leading the country’s response to the public health emergency has published only a tiny fraction of the data it has collected, several people familiar with the data said.” Omitted from publication included data on the effectiveness of boosters in adults under 65. Without the data, health experts had to turn to international sources such as Israel to recommend the third shot. However, Israel’s definition of severe disease differs from that used in the US. (In Israel, a person with rapid breathing and oxygen levels below 94 percent is considered to have a severe illness, while the CDC reserves that category for anyone who is sick enough to need hospitalization.) Also, the social dynamics of the two countries—public health initiatives, state of the health care infrastructure, therapeutics, etc.—are dissimilar, meaning the best decisions can only be made by using real-time data available for the region. The Washington Post, also reporting on the CDC’s remarkable negligence, said that on July 12, 2021, Pfizer scientists had met with senior US government health officials to explain that their rationale for booster shots was based on data from Israel that showed immunity to the vaccines waned quickly, especially among the elderly and immunocompromised. The CDC indicated their “data showed something quite different.” The Post wrote, “Other senior health officials in the meeting were stunned. Why hadn’t the CDC looped other government officials on the data? Could the agency share it—at least with the Food and Drug Administration, which was responsible for deciding whether booster shots were necessary? But CDC officials demurred, saying they planned to publish it soon.” A month later, reports published in the US corroborated the Israeli data. It is more likely the CDC had siloed and forgotten the information, choosing to ignore its implications and leading to the backpedaling the Post describes. But it further confirms that the CDC has become deeply enmeshed in political decisions to control the flow of scientific information to the public. The deliberate intent is science conforms to policy rather than shaping it. Other vital data left out that has only recently been published included information on hospitalizations and death by age and vaccinations status, including breakthrough infections rates that could have warned the public about the rapid decline in vaccine effectiveness. Another glaring omission has been data derived from wastewater surveillance across the country that could identify emerging COVID-19 hot spots and new variants. It was more than a year ago the CDC had established its National Wastewater Surveillance System. Early this month, the agency added wastewater data to its COVID-19 trackers, providing a broad perspective on the surge of infections across hundreds of communities. CDC spokeswoman Kristen Nordlund told the Times, “The agency has been slow to release the different streams of data because basically, at the end of the day, it’s not yet ready for prime time. [The agency’s] priority when gathering any data is to ensure that it’s accurate and actionable.” The pandemic has demonstrated that the CDC cannot handle large volumes of data while operating under political oversight. There are grave dangers to the population when the premier public health authority is unable to provide timely and vital information on the status of this or any other epidemic.
“Just Scandalous”: CDC Withholding Most of the Covid Data It Gathers. What Is It Trying to Hide? --Yves Smith --Even very politically seasoned and jaded contacts are gobsmacked by the New York Times’ revelation that the CDC is not releasing most of the data it collects. As we’ll discuss shortly, this is dramatic change from the agency’s posture in previous outbreaks. And the disappeared info includes types it published earlier in the pandemic. However, this isn’t news to our Covid brain trust. GM has been pointing out for months about how quite a few states have been playing games with their reporting, such as periodic catch up dumps, going from daily to weekly, and sometimes reports that don’t seem plausible. IM Doc described how the CDC has abandoned its role of advising practitioners on emerging symptoms and patterns of disease progress, along with local data failures which mean national one.1 Key sections from the article: For more than a year, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has collected data on hospitalizations for Covid-19 in the United States and broken it down by age, race and vaccination status. But it has not made most of the information public.When the C.D.C. published the first significant data on the effectiveness of boosters in adults younger than 65 two weeks ago, it left out the numbers for a huge portion of that population: 18- to 49-year-olds, the group least likely to benefit from extra shots, because the first two doses already left them well-protected.The agency recently debuted a dashboard of wastewater data on its website that will be updated daily and might provide early signals of an oncoming surge of Covid cases. Some states and localities had been sharing wastewater information with the agency since the start of the pandemic, but it had never before released those findings.Two full years into the pandemic, the agency leading the country’s response to the public health emergency has published only a tiny fraction of the data it has collected, several people familiar with the data said.Much of the withheld information could help state and local health officials better target their efforts to bring the virus under control. Detailed, timely data on hospitalizations by age and race would help health officials identify and help the populations at highest risk. Information on hospitalizations and death by age and vaccination status would have helped inform whether healthy adults needed booster shots. And wastewater surveillance across the nation would spot outbreaks and emerging variants early….The performance of vaccines and boosters, particularly in younger adults, is among the most glaring omissions in data the C.D.C. has made public.Last year, the agency repeatedly came under fire for not tracking so-called breakthrough infections in vaccinated Americans, and focusing only on individuals who became ill enough to be hospitalized or die. The agency presented that information as risk comparisons with unvaccinated adults, rather than provide timely snapshots of hospitalized patients stratified by age, sex, race and vaccination status.. If you see the second part of the footnote at the end of this post, the CDC does not in fact have accurate data on vaccinated v. unvaccinated status. It is entirely absent in IM Doc’s state. He is listed as unvaccinated (the apparent default) despite multiple attempts to get his record corrected. He also has many Covid patients in his hospital listed as unvaccinated who were in fact vaccinated and in some cases boosted. I can’t think his state is the only one. It sure looks like the CDC thinks its just fine to give doctors and the public the mushroom treatment in the interest of narrative control and shielding the CDC from criticism when its information quality is poor. But unpleasant truths, like the much-shorter-than-hoped duration of vaccine-induced immunity, has gotten through anyhow thanks to reporting from countries that are competent at data collection, such as Israel. The article offers other excuses, like “The public might misuse the information!” and “The info from states isn’t always so hot.” Re the latter, gee, why weren’t you offering to help? Last I checked, the CDC has 32,000 employees. Surely a few could be tasked to help out particular states?
Republican attorneys general call for DHS secretary's resignation -Over a dozen Republican state attorneys general wrote to Secretary of Homeland Security Alejandro Mayorkas on Tuesday demanding his "immediate resignation." Led by Florida Attorney General Ashley Moody (R), the attorneys general's letter accused Mayorkas of "purposely taken repeated actions impairing the safety and security of Americans." "As you publicly boast about your abject refusal to enforce the laws enacted by Congress to keep us safe, our southwest border is a disaster and our nation is on the verge of a national security crisis," the letter read. The letter specifically pointed to the amount of fentanyl seized at the border between the time Mayorkas took office and December 2021, claiming it was enough to "kill every man, woman, and child in our country SIX TIMES over—an increase of over 30 percent since before you took office." It also cited an uptick in sex offenders arrested entering the country in the last year, as well as falling deportation numbers since 2020. Other signatories of the letter included the state attorneys general of Alabama, Arizona, Arkansas, Georgia, Indiana, Louisiana, Montana, Missouri, Oklahoma, South Carolina, Texas, Utah and West Virginia. "Americans have died because of your failure to obey the law and do your solemn duty. More Americans will unnecessarily die and suffer for as long as you remain as Secretary," the attorneys general wrote. "You must resign immediately."
"Morale Is Low" - House Democrats Retirement Surge To 30-Year High - President Joe Biden has become so unpopular that the number of House Democrats poised for retirement in 2022 jumped to a 30-year high ahead of November's midterms. According to The Hill, Democratic New York Rep. Kathleen Rice's announcement not to seek reelection last week made her the 30th House Democrat to call it quits, making it the most for the party since 1992 when 41 House Democrats retired. Since 1978, it's the third time the party has seen more than 30 retirements in a single cycle. "It's bad out there for Democrats," Amy Walter, editor of the non-partisan election analyzer The Cook Political Report, told CNN. "Talk to any member or staffer, and they'll tell you morale is low. It's a combination of January 6, a lack of civility, plus a frustration with a fact that most legislation is leadership-driven instead of member-driven," Walter said. The latest House Race Ratings data via The Cook Report shows 39 Democrat seats are vulnerable while only 19 Republicans. Republicans appear to have the upper hand. There are many reasons (personal or not) for the number of Democrats retiring, we suspect many have noticed the collapse in confidence among even Independents in the Biden administration... and what that likely means for the midterms. Oddsmaker PredictIt shows Republicans have a high chance (at the moment) of sweeping both the Senate and House.
65 percent of rural voters view Democratic Party unfavorably: poll - A new Morning Consult poll found a significant majority of rural voters hold unfavorable opinions of the Democratic Party ahead of the midterm elections. According to the poll, 65 percent of rural voters view the Democratic Party negatively, while only 29 percent view the party favorably. Of the 65 percent who view the party unfavorably, 48 percent say they view the Democratic Party very unfavorably. Rural voters are largely made up of working-class white individuals who favor the police, Christian values and securing the U.S.-Mexico border. Those three issues are the top reasons rural voters view the Democratic Party negatively, the survey found. Issues that Democrats view positively that turn away rural voters are stricter gun control, LGBTQ+ issues and the Black Lives Matter movement. On a variety of issues, including which party can govern better, which party supports big and small businesses and which party is willing to compromise more, rural voters favor the Republican Party over the Democratic Party. Only 23 percent of rural voters think the Democratic Party cares more about their community than Republicans.
Supreme Court turns away Trump's appeal in dispute with House Jan. 6 panel - The Supreme Court on Tuesday turned away an appeal by former President Trump in his dispute with congressional investigators who have sought access to Trump-era records as part of a House panel’s investigation into the Jan. 6, 2021, attack on the Capitol. The court’s move, which came in a brief unsigned order issued without comment, comes after the justices denied Trump's emergency request to block the transfer of his White House records from the National Archives to the House select committee, a process that began last month. Tuesday's development formally ends Trump’s legal effort to stymie lawmakers’ efforts to obtain a batch of schedules, call logs, emails and other requested documents that the committee says could illuminate key circumstances surrounding the deadly Capitol riot. The order leaves intact a lower federal appeals court ruling that found Trump’s assertion of executive privilege and other legal theories unpersuasive in light of President Biden’s refusal to invoke privilege, as well as the House panel’s pressing task. Trump turned to the Supreme Court in December after lower federal courts rejected his requests to halt the National Archives from passing along his administration’s records. His attorneys had asked the justices to shield the disputed materials from disclosure while they considered his formal appeal. The justices, however, rebuffed Trump’s emergency request in a Jan. 19 ruling. Within hours, the Jan. 6 House committee began receiving records, a development that the panel's chairman, Rep. Bennie Thompson (D-Miss.), and Vice Chair Liz Cheney (R-Wyo.) hailed as “a victory for the rule of law and American democracy.” The court’s Tuesday order marked a denial of Trump’s formal request for appeal.
Prosecutors in Trump probe quit after new DA seems to abandon plan to seek indictment of former president— Two prosecutors heading the Manhattan district attorney’s criminal probe into Donald Trump’s business dealings have resigned from their positions — frustrated that after their former boss authorized them to seek an indictment against the former president, the new district attorney appeared uninterested, multiple people familiar with the situation said. Cyrus R. Vance Jr. (D), who declined to seek reelection as district attorney, had told a team led by seasoned litigators Carey Dunne and Mark Pomerantz to go to a grand jury to begin the process of securing a case against Trump, two people familiar with the situation said. Vance concluded there was enough evidence after a three-year probe to obtain an indictment and conviction, the people said. The final decision, however, would fall to Vance’s successor, Alvin Bragg (D), who was sworn into office Jan. 1. To Dunne and Pomerantz, the people familiar with the situation said, Bragg appeared not to be focused on the case, which centers on whether Trump and his business inflated the value of their assets to secure more favorable loans, insurance and tax rates. One person familiar with the situation said the new prosecutor took weeks to read memos Dunne and Pomerantz had prepared and didn’t meet with them for some time, even though the grand jury’s term was set to expire this spring. When they did meet, Bragg didn’t seem keenly interested, said this person, who like others spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss internal deliberations in an ongoing investigation. Due to the inactivity, members of the grand jury were instructed to stay home on days they were slated to serve, according to one of the people with knowledge of the developments. Analysis: Once again, Trump appears to evade a legal trap A spokeswoman for Bragg on Wednesday confirmed the resignations of Dunne and Pomerantz, who were overseeing a team of about 25 lawyers, paralegals and analysts, but declined to say why they left.
Bernie Madoff’s Sister Dead In Boynton Beach - The sister of disgraced financier Bernie Madoff was killed in a murder-suicide in Valencia Lakes, West of Boynton Beach. Her husband, Marvin Weiner, is also dead. The Palm Beach County Sheriff’s Office confirmed to BocaNewsNow.com that a murder-suicide investigation is underway, but would not confirm the names of the deceased. Sources, however, tell BocaNewsNow.com that the Weiners’ bodies were found Thursday in their home on Barca Boulevard, and an internal email sent to homeowners in Valencia Lakes confirms that the Weiners are the dead. UPDATE: After our story received national attention, the Palm Beach County Sheriff’s Office confirmed that both Sondra and Marvin were victims of gunshot wounds. It remains unclear who killed the other. Sondra Weiner, according to public records, was 87. Marvin Weiner was 90. The two were sued in 2010 in a suit filed by the trustee representing Madoff’s victims, alleging that Sondra and Marvin “received at least $1,715,000 of other people’s money,” wrote the Sun Sentinel in 2010. The outcome of that specific claim could not be immediately determined. New York Magazine reported in 2009 that Sondra Weiner lost $3,000,000 as part of her brother’s scam, and was forced to sell her Palm Beach estate. Sondra and Marvin’s home — where they died — was purchased for $315,000 in 2009.
Wall Street engineers embark on expanding a Bitcoin derivative --A group of engineers and traders at the crypto prime brokerage SFOX are working on a way to expand access to Bitcoin for banks and big investors. SFOX co-founder George Melika said his firm is in talks with large banks and market makers including Jane Street to open a market that facilitates the trading of Bitcoin derivatives. The idea is to use NDFs — non-deliverable forward contracts that are typically used for currency markets — to give banks the wherewithal to expose clients to Bitcoin at a greater scale through a contract, at an agreed-upon price, that settles in cash. “It’s a product they’re familiar with, it’s regulated, and they can trust they can get exposure to it without holding the underlying,” Melika said by phone, explaining that banks don’t actually have to purchase Bitcoin for clients to be able to trade assets related to the token’s moves.
Crypto industry masters Washington’s ‘revolving door’ as its influence grows --People are increasingly moving between jobs in crypto and the government agencies that police the industry, raising potential conflicts of interest that could undermine efforts to rein in the sector, according to a watchdog group.There have been nearly 240 instances of crypto’s so-called revolving door, where employees leave the government for the private sector and vice versa, according to a new report by the Tech Transparency Project.Dozens of former top officials from the Securities and Exchange Commission to the White House are now employed by or are working on behalf of companies such as Coinbase Global, Binance Holdings and Ripple Labs, the analysis found. Key instances of people taking jobs in government include five individuals who left Circle Internet Financial to join the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, which has taken a leading role as officials weigh a central bank digital currency.
Ransomware attacks are rising, payment security consortium warns - A payment security standards group released a warning this month about the growing threat of ransomware, echoing forecasts from the U.S. government and others that an uptick in such attacks, which coincided with the pandemic, will likely continue.The Payment Card Industry Security Standards Council, formed by Visa, Mastercard and other major credit card companies in 2006, said Feb. 10 its ransomware bulletin was one of only two it would release this year. The National Cybersecurity Alliance joined the standards council in releasing the notice.Lance Johnson, executive director of the PCI Security Standards Council, said that as working from home became commonplace during the pandemic, there has also been “a significant increase in ransomware attacks.” According to the bulletin, “cybercriminals see new opportunities due to the disruption created by the global COVID-19 pandemic.”
Top cyberthreat to U.S. banks may stem from attacks on Ukrainian targets As the U.S. imposes economic sanctions against Russia, cybersecurity firms and federal officials are advising American banks to shore up their cyberdefenses but also saying that state-sponsored attacks don’t appear to be imminent.With Russian troops advancing on Kyiv, American officials warned this week that the bigger threat for U.S. banks currently appears to be cyberattacks on Ukrainian banks, which could have ripple effects outside of that country.Last week, the U.S. attributed to Russia a denial of service attack that overwhelmed Ukrainian websites two days earlier. The attack — the largest in the country’s history — hitthree of the country’s banks, including its two largest, as well as divisions of the Ukrainian government. A second round of attacks followed this week.
Pressure builds for Russia to be tossed from Swift - The Biden administration is holding firm against global pressure for the U.S. and Europe to immediately cut Russia off from the world's largest financial messaging network, arguing that the sanctions it imposed Thursday will more thoroughly punish Vladimir Putin for invading Ukraine."The sanctions we've imposed exceed Swift. The sanctions we imposed exceed anything that's ever been done," President Joe Biden said when pressed by reporters over whether he would advocate cutting Russia off from the Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunications. Russia has been hit with sanctions that target banks, energy trading and technology. But these actions thus far have not involved disconnecting Russia from the Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunications (Swift), a Brussels-based organization that supports messaging for cross-border transactions. Banning Russia from Swift has become a major focus in the media, as it is positioned asisolating Russia from the international payments market.
Are the Big 4 Accounting Firms Focused on their Public Duty or Optimizing their Payday? - Auditors have come under a harsh light over their failure to detect massive frauds over the past two decades. The Big 5 are now the Big 4 as a result of Arthur Andersen’s audit failures with the energy company, Enron. Despite the sagging reputations of the remaining Big 4, conflicts of interest continue to pervade this profession. This is the news beat of Francine McKenna, a CPA, veteran financial reporter and now an independent journalist writing for Substack. In the article below, McKenna provides an overview of where things stand today and profiles three recent cases of Big 4 audit failures: at Theranos, Autonomy-HP, and Carillion. (This was a talk McKenna delivered to a February 15, 2022 gathering of the CFA Society New York under the program title, “What Investors Need to Know about Audits.” It is published here with permission from the author.)
Goldman Probed by SEC Over Messages Sent Using Unapproved services --Goldman Sachs Group became the latest bank to be investigated over employee communications over unapproved messaging services. The New York-based company is cooperating with the Securities and Exchange Commission and producing documents related to a probe into “compliance with records preservation requirements relating to business communications sent over electronic messaging channels that have not been approved by the firm,” it said in a regulatory filing Friday.In December, the SEC and Commodity Futures Trading Commission imposed $200 million in fines on JPMorgan Chase, saying that even managing directors and other senior supervisors at the bank had skirted regulatory scrutiny by using services such as WhatsApp or personal email addresses for work-related communication. This week, HSBC Holdings said it’s being investigated by the CFTC over bankers’ misuse of WhatsApp and other messaging platforms.
HSBC under investigation in U.S. over WhatsApp use - HSBC Holdings is being investigated by U.S. regulators over bankers’ misuse of services such as WhatsApp.The London-based bank is cooperating with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission probe into the use of “non-HSBC approved messaging platforms for business communications,” according to its annual report published alongside earnings on Tuesday. HSBC Chief Executive Noel Quinn told Bloomberg News the CFTC’s work was part of a broad investigation by U.S. authorities. “I don’t think it’s specific, I think it’s general across all financial institutions,” said Quinn in a phone interview.
Fed capital policy puts community development aid out of some banks' reach — A landmark Treasury Department program designed to invest billions in poor communities around the U.S. through specialized financial institutions is being hamstrung by little-known Federal Reserve guidance, significantly reducing the capital available for certain small b anks.Policymakers in recent years have increasingly turned to specialized, community-focused financial institutions to deliver targeted investments in the nation’s poorest neighborhoods. Since 2020, the federal government has allocated a historic amount of funding towards community development firms to aid the country’s post-pandemic economic recovery.But one of the largest and most anticipated federal efforts in community finance — the $8.75 billion Emergency Capital Investment Program, introduced by Congress’s 2021 budget — has become ensnared by conflicting supervisory rules between the Federal Reserve and Treasury Department, in some cases sharply reducing the potential investments some banks will be able to receive and put towards their communities.
Life insurance companies report a sudden rise in non-COVID-related deaths - According to a report Wednesday in the Wall Street Journal, US life insurance companies saw nearly a 40 percent rise in death benefit claims in the third quarter of 2021 compared to the pre-pandemic baseline, the largest such increase (so far) in the coronavirus pandemic. While claims for COVID-related deaths were expected to jump, and did so, up 18.7 percent over the pre-pandemic baseline, there was surprise at the sudden jump in non-COVID death claims, which rose even more, up 19 percent. The peak in COVID-19 death claims actually occurred in the fourth quarter of 2020 and the first quarter of 2021. Each quarter showed a rise of almost 22 percent over pre-pandemic levels, coinciding with the brutal winter peak that killed a quarter-million Americans [See chart below]. By comparison, claims for non-COVID-19 deaths only reached 6.4 percent over baseline in the fourth quarter of 2020 and were at baseline in the first quarter of 2021. This sudden jump in non-COVID-19 death-benefit claims was stunning and unexpected to life insurance analysts. Industry executives and actuaries speaking to the Journal speculated that these “additional non-COVID fatalities” were a byproduct of delays in medical care due to lockdowns in 2020 and more recently due to people’s fears to seek medical attention or delays associated with going to their doctor. With barely a mention in official political and media circles of COVID-19’s continuing deadly impact in every community across the country, only an analysis of death claims by life insurers suggests the dimensions of another massive crime against the population: the sudden rise in non-COVID-related deaths. Notably, the financial claims arising from these deaths are what drew the attention of the financial executives and the media, rather than the lives lost. The results of the third quarter 2021 death-benefit claims for COVID-19 fatalities certainly underscore the deadliness of the Delta wave that killed at least 175,000 lives in a matter of three to four months. However, the jump in non-COVID-19 deaths as delineated in the Journal report shows the broader social catastrophe largely buried in the media. The hidden cost of these excess deaths only emerged in the accounting ledgers of these financial companies, which make their livelihoods betting on the population’s life expectancy. Given that the Omicron wave produced a death toll even higher than Delta and incapacitated health systems across the country for weeks, the trend reported by these life insurance conglomerates is expected to continue well into the future. It will be exacerbated if, as multiple international bodies fear, BA.2 becomes the dominant strain and proves more virulent than its older distant cousin, BA.1. According to the American Council of Life Insurance (ACLI), a Washington based lobbying and trade group for the life insurance industry, life insurers paid out more than $90 billion in 2020, a 15.4 percent rise in claims over 2019, the highest single-year surge since the 1918 influenza pandemic when payments rose 41 percent. By comparison, the third quarter of 2021 with a 38 percent over baseline increase approaches the calamity wrought by the 1918 influenza virus. “The losses we are seeing continue to be elevated over 2019 levels due at least in part, we believe, to the pandemic and the existence of either delayed or unavailable healthcare.” However, the Journal explained that the “hit to the industry’s bottom line has been less than initially feared … because many victims have been older people who typically have smaller policies if any coverage.”
Federal regulators scrutinize BofA for its response to California benefits fraud -Federal regulators are investigating Bank of America for its role in administering government benefits under a California program that was plagued by fraud at the height of the COVID-19 pandemic.The Office of the Comptroller of the Currency and the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau have been scrutinizing BofA’s actions as the state’s exclusive provider of prepaid debit cards to unemployment, disability and pandemic-relief beneficiaries, according to sources familiar with the matter.The Office of the Comptroller of the Currency and Consumer Financial Protection Bureau are investigating Bank of America for potential shortcomings in its fraud protection practices related to its administration of California's unemployment benefit program.Both the OCC and CFPB investigations are in their later stages, according to sources familiar with the inquiries. The OCC has indicated that an enforcement action is possible, the sources told American Banker.
CFPB data collection plan may be too costly for some banks, credit unions --Credit unions and banks serving local community institutions could abandon small-business lending efforts because of the potential cost of complying with the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau's data collection plan.The CFPB wants to spot patterns of discrimination and bias in small-business lending by requiring depository institutions and nontraditional lenders to collect and report data to the agency. The plan was originally released on Sept. 1 and drew immediate pushback from lenders that thought it would be too costly to implement, with many saying the proposed rule would disproportionately affect small institutions that lack the resources to comply with the reporting requirements.Since then, the rule has amassed over 2,100 comments from trade groups like the National Association of Federally-Insured Credit Unions and the Credit Union National Association, which call for changes in its scope. A final rule is expected to be published in 2023.
Shareholder Activism: Icahn Targets McDonald’s Pig Pens by Jerri-Lynn Scofield - Without the presence of Carl Icahn as protagonist, this latest pig tale might otherwise rate as a story of minor interest. Recall that Icahn came to prominence in the 1980s, as a ruthless corporate raider, known for acquiring companies such as Trans World Airlines and engaging in swingeing asset striping in the quest of siphoning off beaucoup bucks. Many younger readers might not recognize his name, but they surely would recognize the ’80s icon and fictional character he in part inspired, Gordon Gekko. To be fair, with these latest porcine interests, Icahn currently seems to be on the right side of an issue for a change (although I declare my suspicions up front; one never knows with Icahn, and there’s almost certainly more to this story than what’s been publicly disclosed). Sticking with those known facts, he’s acquired some McDonald’s shares – a few hundred rather than the thousands in which he typically deals – and has nominated two directors to its board with the aim of improving the food behemoth’s suppliers treat their pigs, according to the FT, Carl Icahn launches board fight at McDonald’s over treatment of pigs: Activist investor Carl Icahn has launched a highly unusual board fight at McDonald’s to demand changes to the way its suppliers treat pigs.Icahn has asked McDonald’s to require that all its US pork suppliers end the practice of keeping pregnant pigs confined in small crates.The company pledged in 2012 to phase out the use of what are known as “gestation stalls” for pregnant sows in its US pork supply chain in 10 years. It said on Sunday that by the end of 2022, it expected to source 85 to 90 per cent of its US pork from sows no longer confined to stalls, and to completely eliminate the practice from its supply chain by the end of 2024. The FT, CNN (Billionaire Carl Icahn targets McDonald’s over pig welfare), the Grey Lady’s Dealbook (Carl Icahn Pushes McDonald’s to Change Way It Sources Its Pork), and BBC (McDonald’s pig policy fight escalates with board nominations) all ran with this porky tale today. Two weeks ago the Wall Street Journal highlighted Icahn’s longstanding interest in McDonald’s pig policy, Relentless Wall Street Billionaire Has a Secret Cause: In 2012, McDonald’s Corp. pledged to stop buying pork for its Bacon McDouble cheeseburgers, McRib sandwiches and the like by 2022 from producers who use small crates to constrain pregnant swine. Left unmentioned was that Mr. Icahn had pushed for the change behind the scenes.A decade on, Mr. Icahn has concluded the original promise was hogwash. McDonald’s now often has its producers move pigs out of the containers only after confirming they’re pregnant. Many wait to do so until the sows are four to six weeks into their 16-week pregnancies. Mr. Icahn had expected the use of so-called gestation crates to be banned altogether.
FHFA updates proposal for minimum financial eligibility standards -The Federal Housing Finance Agency has re-proposed minimum financial-eligibility standards for seller-servicers that work with two government-sponsored enterprises, confirming speculation that a return to a measure previously put on hold by the pandemicwas imminent.“In an ongoing commitment to the safety and soundness of our housing finance system, the enterprises must consider risk exposure from their contractual relationships with seller/servicers and assess, monitor and take appropriate actions to address the risks to which they are exposed in their business relationships with third parties,” Sandra Thompson, acting director of the FHFA, said in a press release.The revived proposal builds on previous versions with some tweaks that incorporate some “lessons learned” from the pandemic, according to the FHFA. Its minimum capital requirements aim to account for differences between the servicing of loans sold to the GSEs and those in securitizations guaranteed by the government agency Ginnie Mae. They also reflect coordination with other federal agencies, which may suggest the industry could also soon see follow-up on a controversial proposal Ginnie Mae previously floated that would impose capital requirements on issuers of its securities. Commenters indicated that those requirements would be particularly onerous for small nonbanks.
FHFA issues final rule for Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac capital plan - The Federal Housing Finance Agency has finalized amendments to its enterprise regulatory capital framework, largely confirming proposed modifications that encourage the issuance of credit-risk transfers and make leverage ratios more dynamic.Under the plan’s final rule, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, which the FHFA oversees, will no longer have a requirement to apply an overall effectiveness adjustment to retained CRT exposures. In addition, a prudential floor of 10% on the risk weight assigned to any retained CRT exposure will be reduced to 5%. Also, a fixed leverage buffer equal to 1.5% of total assets will be replaced with a dynamic leverage buffer. It will be equal to 50% of the separate stability capital buffer each of the entities has. The rule, which also contains some technical corrections, will become effective 60 days after it is published in the Federal Register.Collectively, the finalized amendments aim to help Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac’s manage risk and rebuilding capital while retaining enough flexibility to fulfill their affordable housing missions.
CFPB wants automated appraisals to be free of bias --Combating appraisal bias has been a priority of the Biden administration, which convened an interagency task force last year to address how appraisals contribute to disparities in housing.On Wednesday, the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau took a step toward addressing the problem with a proposal that would require all banks and mortgage lenders to ensure automated appraisals are complying with nondiscrimination laws.The CFPB’s 42-page plan kicked off an interagency rulemaking process that will lead to quality control standards for automated valuation models, or AVMs, which value a home using massive amounts of data from various sources.
Black Knight: National Mortgage Delinquency Rate Decreased in January; "Foreclosure Starts Surge" Note: At the beginning of the pandemic, the delinquency rate increased sharply (see table below). Loans in forbearance are counted as delinquent in this survey, but those loans are not reported as delinquent to the credit bureaus. From Black Knight: Black Knight: Foreclosure Starts Surge Sevenfold in January, Hitting Highest Level in Two Years; Though Volumes Rising, Still 20% Below Pre-Pandemic Levels
• Foreclosure starts rose sharply in January as borrower protections in place throughout the economic recovery begin to roll off, with 32,900 loans referred to foreclosure in the monthAccording to Black Knight's First Look report, the percent of loans delinquent decreased 2.3% in January compared to December and decreased 44% year-over-year.
• While up significantly from December’s 4,100, January’s start volume was still more than 20% below the 42,800 in January 2020, prior to the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic
• Roughly half of the month’s starts were among borrowers who were already delinquent prior to the economic impacts of COVID-19, and half from borrowers who became past due in March 2020 or later
• In turn, the national foreclosure rate rose to its highest level since May 2021 (0.28%) – still nearly 40% below its pre-pandemic level, with foreclosure sales (completions) 70% below January 2020 levels
• At the same time, the national delinquency rate continued to improve, and the number of seriously past due mortgages fell by 87,000 (-9%) as borrowers leaving forbearance plans returned to making payments
• A backlog of post-forbearance loans in active loss mitigation – plus another 379,000 that have finished loss mitigation but remain past due – calls for a close watch on foreclosure metrics in coming months
• Prepayment activity hit a more than two-year low, falling by 24% from the month prior as rising rates continue to put sharp downward pressure on refinance incentive
The percent of loans in the foreclosure process increased 16.5% in January and were down 13% over the last year. Black Knight reported the U.S. mortgage delinquency rate (loans 30 or more days past due, but not in foreclosure) was 3.30% in January, down from 3.38% in December. The percent of loans in the foreclosure process increased in January to 0.28%, from 0.24% in December. The number of delinquent properties, but not in foreclosure, is down 1,372,000 properties year-over-year, and the number of properties in the foreclosure process is down 22,000 properties year-over-year.
MBA Survey: "Share of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Decreases to 1.30% in January" -- Note: This is as of January 31st. From the MBA: Share of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Decreases to 1.30% in January: The Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) monthly Loan Monitoring Survey revealed that the total number of loans now in forbearance decreased by 11 basis points from 1.41% of servicers’ portfolio volume in the prior month to 1.30% as of January 31, 2022. According to MBA’s estimate, 650,000 homeowners are in forbearance plans. The share of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac loans in forbearance decreased 4 basis points to 0.68%. Ginnie Mae loans in forbearance decreased 3 basis points to 1.60%, and the forbearance share for portfolio loans and private-label securities (PLS) declined 41 basis points to 3.02%. “For the second straight month, the pace of forbearance exits reached another low since MBA began tracking exits in June 2020,” said Marina Walsh, CMB, MBA’s Vice President of Industry Analysis. “There was also a pick-up in new forbearance requests and re-entries for all loans, and particularly for Ginnie Mae loans. Even though the forbearance rate continued its downward trajectory, it was the smallest monthly decline since January 2021.” Added Walsh, “The positive news is that the percentage of borrowers who were current on their mortgage payments increased from December 2021. However, there was some deterioration in the performance of borrowers with existing loan workouts. Borrowers in loan workouts may have experienced new life events unrelated to the pandemic, or alternatively, the omicron variant may have triggered or re-triggered employment, health, or other stresses.” This graph shows the percent of portfolio in forbearance by investor type over time. The number of forbearance plans is decreasing.
MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest Weekly Survey -- From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey - Mortgage applications decreased 13.1 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending February 18, 2022.... The Refinance Index decreased 16 percent from the previous week and was 56 percent lower than the same week one year ago. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 10 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index decreased 6 percent compared with the previous week and was 6 percent lower than the same week one year ago.Mortgage applications dropped to their lowest level since December 2019 last week, as mortgage rates continued to inch higher. The 30-year fixed rate was 4.06 percent, almost a full percentage point higher than a year ago. Higher mortgage rates have quickly shut off refinances, with activity down in six of the first seven weeks of 2022. Conventional refinances in particular saw a 17 percent decrease last week,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s Associate Vice President of Economic and Industry Forecasting. “Purchase applications, already constrained by elevated sales prices and tight inventory, have also been impacted by these higher rates and declined for the third straight week. While the average loan size did not increase this week, it remained close to the survey’s record high.”...The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($647,200 or less) increased to 4.06 percent from 4.05 percent, with points increasing to 0.48 from 0.45 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value ratio (LTV) loans.
"Mortgage Rates Hit New Multi-Year Highs"; Highest Since 2019 ---From Matthew Graham at MortgageNewsDaily: Mortgage Rates Hit New Multi-Year Highs: It was another bad day for the mortgage market. This has been the norm so far in 2022 as financial markets continue repositioning for less and less support from the Federal Reserve.There were no major new developments on that front today. Bonds (which underlie mortgage rates) simply drifted into moderately weaker territory. In so doing, they ignored several potential justifications to improve. This gives the impression that rates simply took an opportunity to catch their breath as investors weighed the implications of geopolitical risk surrounding Ukraine.Today's average mortgage rates aren't significantly higher than the previous highs, but nonetheless the highest we've seen since May 2019. The average conventional 30yr fixed is now closer to 4.25% than 4.125%This is a graph from Mortgage News Daily (MND) showing 30-year fixed rates from three sources (MND, MBA, Freddie Mac) since 2010. The 30-year fixed rate for top tier scenarios was 4.19% today, up from 4.12% on Tuesday.This is the highest rate since May 2019,Go to MND and you can adjust the graph for different time periods.
Is 4% the “Magic Number” for Mortgage Rates to Prick the Housing Market (and Stocks)? -- Wolf Richter --The average weekly contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances rose to 4.06 percent for the week ended February 18, the second week in a row above 4%, and the highest since July 2019, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association today. The average rate for FHA-backed 30-year fixed-rate mortgages increased to 4.09%.So where is the magic number beyond which this super-inflated housing market starts to feel the pressure of higher mortgage rates?But mortgage rates remain ridiculously low, in face of CPI inflation that has shot to 7.5% and is still being fueled by the Fed’s ongoing interest rate repression and QE – which makes this the most reckless Fed ever.In the fall of 2018, as mortgage rates headed toward 5%, the housing market was beginning to wheeze, and stocks were spiraling down. The magic number at the time appears to have been about 4.8%, and when mortgage rates moved above it in September, all heck started breaking loose.After the S&P 500 had dropped about 20% by December 24, 2018, and with the housing market weakening, Fed Chair Powell caved under Trump’s daily hammering and did the now infamous U-Turn.However, back then in early 2019, inflation was below the Fed’s target, as measured by its yard stick “core PCE,” at 1.6%, and that provided Powell a fig leaf.Now inflation is the worst in 40 years and spiraling higher, and “core PCE” inflation is 2.5 times the Fed’s target. It’s now inflation that is hammering Powell on a daily basis – him who’d made a fool of himself calling this monster he’d unleashed “temporary” when everyone already knew that it would spiral higher.So where is the magic number this time beyond which the housing market starts to feel the pressure?Mortgage applications to purchase a home have dropped sharply for three weeks in a row, coinciding with the surge in mortgage rates, and in the week ended February 18 reached lows briefly kissed in August 2021, and then during the lockdown, to enter the lower part of the range in 2019. The MBA’s index for purchase mortgage applications has now dropped by 28% from the January 2021 pandemic highs (data via Investing.com):
FHFA House Price Index: Up 1.2% in December - The Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) has released its U.S. House Price Index (HPI) for December. Here is the opening of the press release: U.S. house prices rose 17.5 percent from the fourth quarter of 2020 to the fourth quarter of 2021 according to the Federal Housing Finance Agency House Price Index (FHFA HPI®). House prices were up 3.3 percent compared to the third quarter of 2021. FHFA's seasonally adjusted monthly index for December was up 1.2 percent from November."House prices continued to climb but not as rapidly during the final quarter of 2021 as in earlier quarters," said William Doerner, Ph.D., Supervisory Economist in FHFA's Division of Research and Statistics. "Housing trends over the past year have created challenges. The quick house price gains may be counterbalanced as mortgage rates increase. However, more expensive housing has elevated affordability to become a broader concern as available supply remains limited." The chart below illustrates the monthly HPI series, which is not adjusted for inflation, along with a real (inflation-adjusted) series using the Consumer Price Index: All Items Less Shelter.
Case-Shiller: National House Price Index increased 18.8% year-over-year in December - S&P/Case-Shiller released the monthly Home Price Indices for December ("December" is a 3-month average of October, November and December prices). This release includes prices for 20 individual cities, two composite indices (for 10 cities and 20 cities) and the monthly National index. From S&P: S&P Corelogic Case-Shiller Index Reports 18.8% Annual Home Price Gain for Calendar 2021: The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, covering all nine U.S. census divisions, reported an 18.8% annual gain in December, remaining the same from the previous month. The 10-City Composite annual increase came in at 17.0%, up from 16.9% in the previous month. The 20-City Composite posted an 18.6% year-over-year gain, up from 18.3% in the previous month.Phoenix, Tampa, and Miami reported the highest year-over-year gains among the 20 cities in December. Phoenix led the way with a 32.5% year-over-year price increase, followed by Tampa with a 29.4% increase and Miami with a 27.3% increase. Fifteen of the 20 cities reported higher price increases in the year ending December 2021 versus the year ending November 2021....Before seasonal adjustment, the U.S. National Index posted a 0.9% month-over-month increase in December, while the 10-City and 20-City Composites posted increases of 1.0% and 1.1%, respectively.After seasonal adjustment, the U.S. National Index posted a month-over-month increase of 1.3%, and the 10-City and 20-City Composites posted increases of 1.4% and 1.5%, respectively.In December, all 20 cities reported increases before and after seasonal adjustments. The first graph shows the nominal seasonally adjusted Composite 10, Composite 20 and National indices (the Composite 20 was started in January 2000).The National index is up 105% from the post-bubble low set in February 2012 (SA). The second graph shows the year-over-year change in all three indices. Price increases were above expectations. I'll have more later.
Soaring Rents Eat Americans' Wage Increases... And Then Some --US headline inflation exceeded 7% in 2021. But rent increases put the Consumer Price Index to shame, soaring an average of 13.5%. And within that already-brutally-high average, there were some absolutely astounding outliers. Phoenix rents soared 25.3%, followed by Tampa, Miami, Orlando, Las Vegas, and Austin, all of which exceeded 20%. That means an Austin barista could receive a 10% salary bump and have most of it wiped out just by an increase in their rent. Add in the soaring costs of food and gasoline, and our hypothetical worker is actually losing ground despite their double-digit pay raise.Rents do tend to rise a bit each year, with 3%-4% being typical. So how did 3% become 20%+ in so many markets? A confluence of factors, including:
- Rent forbearance. State and federal programs designed to prevent evictions during the worst of the pandemic lockdowns hit landlords – who have loans of their own to pay off and can’t do so without rental income – especially hard. Many are now raising rents where they can to offset where, for over a year, they couldn’t.
- General inflation. Pretty much everything required to manage rental properties – including construction materials, labor, and electricity – is up, in some cases dramatically. To stay solvent, landlords have to pass on at least some of these costs to tenants. So 7% headline inflation equals (at least) a comparable increase in rents.
- Soaring home prices. As the world tipped into pandemic-induced recession in 2020, governments responded with an epic money-printing binge. The Federal Reserve’s balance sheet – a proxy for the number of newly created dollars the central bank has created and dumped into the economy – has more than doubled since 2019. Expressed another way, 40% of all the dollars ever created came into being in the first two years of the pandemic.
Combine this tsunami of new money with artificially low mortgage rates – another side effect of QE – and the result is soaring home prices. This impacts the rental market in two ways: First, more expensive houses price ever more would-be buyers out of the market, thus increasing the pool of renters competing for a limited supply of available units. Second, a rental house bought at today’s higher price requires more monthly income to cover its costs, which ratchets up rents. Private equity firms and investment banks developed a taste for rental property during the Great Recession, and now they’re back for the main course. The vast majority of apartments sold in recent years have been gobbled up by Wall Street:
NAR: Pending Home Sales Decreased 5.7% in January - From the NAR: Pending Home Sales Decrease 5.7% in JanuaryPending home sales slumped in January, continuing what is now a three-month drop in transactions, the National Association of Realtors® reported. Of the four major U.S. regions, only the West registered an increase in month-over-month contract activity. All four regions posted a decline in year-over-year activity.The Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI), a forward-looking indicator of home sales based on contract signings, fell 5.7% to 109.5 in January. Year-over-year, transactions decreased 9.5%. An index of 100 is equal to the level of contract activity in 2001....Month-over-month, the Northeast PHSI dropped 12.1% to 84.3 in January, a 16.7% decrease from a year ago. In the Midwest, the index fell 5.9% to 104.4 last month, down 5.9% from January 2021.Pending home sales transactions in the South slipped 6.3% to an index of 134.6 in January, down 8.7% from January 2021. The index in the West increased 1.5% in January to 95.2, down 9.7% from a year prior. This was well below expectations of a 0.5% increase for this index. Note: Contract signings usually lead sales by about 45 to 60 days, so this would usually be for closed sales in February and March.
Housing Inventory February 21st Update: Inventory Down Slightly Week-over-week; New Record Low - Inventory usually declines in the winter, and this is a new record low for this series. This inventory graph is courtesy of Altos Research.As of February 18th, inventory was at 248 thousand (7-day average), compared to 334 thousand for the same week a year ago. That is a decline of 25.8%. A week ago, inventory was at 250 thousand, and was down 27.5% YoY. Inventory was down 0.7% from the previous week.Compared to the same week in 2020, inventory is down 65.7% from 723 thousand.Last year inventory bottomed seasonally in April 2021 - very late in the year - usually inventory bottoms by February. An early key in 2022 will be to watch if inventory bottoms earlier this year.And here is a table of the year-over-year change by week since the beginning of the year. A possible early indicator might be if the YoY decline is less each week. (table)Mike Simonsen discusses this data regularly on Youtube.
New Home Sales decrease to 801,000 Annual Rate in January - The Census Bureau reports New Home Sales in January were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 801 thousand. The previous three months were revised up. Sales of new single‐family houses in January 2022 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 801,000, according to estimates released jointly today by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. This is 4.5 percent below the revised December rate of 839,000 and is 19.3 percent below the January 2021 estimate of 993,000. The first graph shows New Home Sales vs. recessions since 1963. The dashed line is the current sales rate. New home sales are now declining year-over-year since sales soared following the first few months of the pandemic.The second graph shows New Home Months of Supply. The months of supply increased in January to 6.1 months from 5.6 months in December.The all-time record high was 12.1 months of supply in January 2009. The all-time record low was 3.5 months, most recently in October 2020.This is at the top of the normal range (about 4 to 6 months of supply is normal)."The seasonally‐adjusted estimate of new houses for sale at the end of January was 406,000. This represents a supply of 6.1 months at the current sales rate." The last graph shows sales NSA (monthly sales, not seasonally adjusted annual rate).In January 2021 (red column), 64 thousand new homes were sold (NSA). Last year, 77 thousand homes were sold in January.The all-time high for January was 92 thousand in 2005, and the all-time low for January was 21 thousand in 2011.This was slightly below expectations, however sales in the three previous months were revised up sharply.
Inventory of New Houses Highest since 2008 amid Stalled Projects & Worst Spike in Construction Costs Ever Recorded -By Wolf Richter Amid shortages of materials, supplies, and labor that caused construction projects to get bogged down, and struggling with a historic spike in costs, homebuilders have amassed 406,000 single-family houses for sale (seasonally adjusted) at all stages of construction, according to date from the Census Bureau today. This is the biggest unsold inventory since August 2008, up by 69% from a year ago, representing 6.1 months of supply:Under construction: The number of houses for sale in January that were still under construction was essentially unchanged from December, at 263,000, and both were the highest since August 2007. About 46% of the houses sold in January were in this category; more on that in a moment.The number of houses for sale where construction hasn’t started yet jumped to 106,000 in January, the highest in the data going back to 1963, as homebuilders – seeing a red-hot market – are piling on new development projects. Nearly 30% of the houses sold in January were in this category. The number of completed houses for sale ticked up to 37,000 houses, still bouncing along the lowest levels in the data going back to 1963, as homebuilders complain about shortages of all kinds that stall projects and prevent them from completing the houses. When unsold houses are finally completed, they sell quickly. Only about 24% of the homes sold were in this category:Total sales of new houses in January ticked down to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 801,000 houses, down 19% from January 2021 but up 6% from January 2020. Sales are far below the boom years of 2002-2006.Multi-family buildings and towers experienced a construction boom over the past decade, but they are not included here.
Quarterly Starts by Purpose and Design: "Built for rent" Increasing - Along with the monthly housing starts for January last week, the Census Bureau released Housing Units Started by Purpose and Design through Q4 2021.This graph shows the NSA quarterly intent for four start categories since 1975: single family built for sale, owner built (includes contractor built for owner), starts built for rent, and condos built for sale. Single family starts built for sale (red) were down 9% in Q4 2021 compared to Q4 2020.Owner built starts (orange) were up 11% year-over-year.Condos built for sale increased and are still low.The 'units built for rent' (blue) and were up 35% in Q4 2021 compared to Q4 2020. The recent housing boom had been mostly in single family homes 'built for sale', but 'built for rent' has been picking up.
AIA: "Architecture billings continue growth" in January -Note: This index is a leading indicator primarily for new Commercial Real Estate (CRE) investment. From the AIA: Architecture billings continue growth into 2022: Architecture firms began 2022 with a slight improvement in business conditions, according to a new report today from The American Institute of Architects (AIA). AIA’s Architecture Billings Index (ABI) score for January was 51.0 compared to 51.0 in December (any score over 50 indicates billings growth). Inquiries into new work and the value of new design contracts both remained strong with scores of 61.9 and 56.1 respectively. “Architecture billings, while remaining at very healthy levels in recent months, have slowed considerably from the middle of last year,” said AIA Chief Economist, Kermit Baker, Hon. AIA, PhD. “This no doubt reflects delays in the construction sector caused by supply challenges for both labor and materials, as well as ongoing staffing constraints at architecture firms.” ...
• Regional averages: South (61.2); Midwest (51.5); West (47.6); Northeast (46.8)
• Sector index breakdown: mixed practice (59.3); commercial/industrial (54.2); multi-family residential (50.1); institutional (47.3)
This graph shows the Architecture Billings Index since 1996. The index was at 51.0 in January, unchanged from 51.0 in December. Anything above 50 indicates expansion in demand for architects' services. Note: This includes commercial and industrial facilities like hotels and office buildings, multi-family residential, as well as schools, hospitals and other institutions. This index has been positive for the last twelve months. This index usually leads CRE investment by 9 to 12 months, so this index suggests a pickup in CRE investment in 2022.
Hotels: Occupancy Rate Down 8% Compared to Same Week in 2019 -From CoStar: STR: Presidents' Day Weekend Buoys US Hotel Performance - Helped by Presidents’ Day weekend, U.S. hotel performance increased from the previous week and showed improvement against 2019 comparables, according to STR‘s latest data through Feb. 19.
Feb. 13-19, 2022 (percentage change from comparable week in 2019*):
• Occupancy: 59.1% (-8.4%)
• Average daily rate (ADR): $140.11 (+8.4%)
• Revenue per available room (RevPAR): $82.87 (-0.8%)
*Due to the pandemic impact, STR is measuring recovery against comparable time periods from 2019.The following graph shows the seasonal pattern for the hotel occupancy rate using the four-week average.The red line is for 2022, black is 2020, blue is the median, and dashed light blue is for 2021. The 4-week average of the occupancy rate is below the median rate for the previous 20 years (Blue).
February Vehicle Sales Forecast: Decrease to 14.2 million SAAR -- From WardsAuto: Volume Up But February’s U.S. Light-Vehicle SAAR Set to Decline from January (pay content) Supply issues continue to impact vehicle sales, but it appears the supply chain disruption bottom is in. This graph shows actual sales from the BEA (Blue), and Wards forecast for January (Red).The Wards forecast of 14.2 million SAAR, would be down about 6% from last month, and down 11% from a year ago (sales were solid in February 2021, as sales recovered from the depths of the pandemic, and weren't yet impacted by supply chain issues).
Buyers’ Strike Sets in: Used-Vehicle Supply Balloons, First Dip in Crazy Prices. But New-Vehicle Shortages Persist --by Wolf Richter - -This has been developing in the used vehicle market since November: After prices spiked into the stratosphere, more potential buyers became reluctant to overpay ridiculous amounts for a used vehicle, and sales began to dip, and the underlying dynamics in the wholesale market began to weaken in November and weakened further in December, and then in January wholesale prices were flat for the first time since August seasonally adjusted. And not seasonally adjusted, prices fell.By the beginning of February, supply was above average. And over the first two weeks in February, prices have begun to dip even on a seasonally adjusted basis. So here we go, charting the turning point of a market gone nuts.Used vehicle supply on dealer lots at the beginning of February rose to 56 days, up from the 40-day range over the summer, the third month in a row of increases, including sharp increases over the past two months, according to data from Cox Automotive released last Thursday. This was well above the average supply of 48 days in 2019. So given the current rate of retail sales, there is plenty of supply on dealer lots, and this supply is growing rapidly: The number of used vehicles in inventory on dealer lots at the beginning of February rose to 2.55 million vehicles, the highest since December 2020 (2.56 million), according to Cox Automotive data, and the second month in a row of sharp month-to-month increases. As you can see from the charts above, though used vehicle inventories were tight last year, there was no shortage in inventories to rationalize the ridiculous price spikes – 40.5% year over year, according to the CPI for used cars and trucks.These price spikes happened, starting a year ago, because consumers were suddenly eager to pay those prices, and dealers were eager to charge them, and then when dealers saw that they could sell at those prices, they began bidding up wholesale prices. This is the inflationary mindset that took over, and prices spiked despite plenty of supply.In the first two weeks of February, wholesale prices at the auctions around the US fell by 1.5% seasonally adjusted, the first dip since last summer, after having already flattened in January, according to Manheim, the largest auto auction house in the US and a unit of Cox automotive. This whittled down the year-over-year price spike to 38%, from the peak of 47% in December, and it whittled down the two-year spike to 62%, from 67% in December. Even if those prices drop quite a bit further, they will still be ridiculous. Based on the underlying auction dynamics that deteriorated further over the first two weeks in February, Manheim said that used-vehicle prices would “likely see further declines in the second half of the month.” I don’t expect prices of used vehicles to plunge anywhere near 2019 levels, because prices of consumer goods are downward sticky, but there is now growing resistance by potential buyers to these still ridiculous used vehicle prices.
The supply chain is healing — but new signals hint inflation will stay high throughout 2022 - The US is likely past the worst of its supply-chain nightmare. But recent improvements haven't been enough to cool inflation, and the latest data suggests prices will keep soaring for the rest of the year.The country's inflation problem is a two-pronged issue. The shipping delays and port bottlenecks of late 2021 left businesses with insufficient supply. At the same time, Americans unleashed pent-up demand throughout last year and pushed spending above the pre-pandemic trend. Too many dollars were chasing too few goods, and firms looking to protect their profits were pushed to raise their pricesOne of those prongs is slowly improving. Various indicators of supply-chain pressure, from container shipping rates to delivery times, have eased in recent months. Jefferies forecast in mid-October that the US was "past peak pinch," and JPMorgan shared a similarly optimistic outlook last month, saying the shipping pressures were "easing in all the right places."But other factors suggest those forecasts might be a tad optimistic. The situation might be easing, but it hasn't been enough yet to cool the consumer-price rally. With demand running stronger than anticipated, it's looking increasingly likely that prices will charge higher through the rest of the year.The most recent data upholds this and suggests the highest inflation in four decades isn't going away. The producer price index, which instead tracks businesses' input costs, soared 1% last month, doubling the median forecast and marking the biggest jump since May. Rising input costs tend to precede higher prices as businesses are pressured to maintain their margins.Part of the problem is just how widespread inflation has become, Bruce Kasman, JPMorgan's chief economist, said Thursday. The bank expected price growth to "extend beyond the narrow set of items directly linked to supply bottlenecks," he said. Yet the "intensity of the acceleration" in price growth throughout the index was "surprising," Kasman added. Inflation is no longer a temporary symptom of reopening; it's morphed into a much more sweeping issue.It doesn't help that the supply-chain crisis is still looming large over the recovery. The situation is improving, but measures like delay times and shipping prices are still far worse than they were before the pandemic, Alex Lin, a senior US economist at Bank of America, told Insider on Thursday. The US might be past the peak, but the path down the mountain has so far been a slow and arduous one."We haven't really seen any true improvement. Things aren't going through the supply chain faster," Lin said. "It's just that things aren't getting as bad as quickly as they were."
The U.S. Import Surge Is Skipping the Train – WSJ -Shippers are increasingly choosing trucks over railroads because of supply-chain bottlenecks and a need for speed, pushing more freight onto the country’s highways Tens of thousands of container loads of cargo that would normally move on railroads are being hauled on American roads each month as companies look to get around continuing supply-chain bottlenecks. U.S. intermodal transports, in which railroads carry containers and truck trailers, were down nearly 12% in the first six weeks of this year from a year ago, according to the Association of American Railroads, after tumbling in the second half of last year even as retailers and manufacturers rushed to bring in goods.Trucking and rail industry officials say demand to move freight 500 miles or more—which is often done by rail—remains strong, as companies restock depleted inventories. But shippers are more often than usual choosing highways over railroads because shortages of labor, equipment and warehouse space across supply chains can create unpredictable delays.Railroads “should be seizing the day and winning more business,” said Paul Svindland, chief executive of Bensenville, Ill.-based STG Logistics. Mr. Svindland’s firm has been placing more cargo than usual on trucks because he can’t find enough of the containers railroads need to most easily handle such shipments, he said.Intermodal transport, which uses trucking for the final leg of delivery, is slower and more complicated than long-haul trucking. But it is also cheaper and less damaging to the environment.Lawrence Gross, president of Gross Transportation Consulting, said intermodal loads have lost a little over 1% of their market share to long-distance trucking since the Covid-19 pandemic began. Based on current freight volumes, that translates to about 30,000 additional long-distance truck moves each week, he said.John Gray, senior vice president for policy and economics at the AAR, said freight railroads could comfortably handle an extra 20,000 to 30,000 intermodal loads a week. “I am confident there is a lot more capacity out there,” Mr. Gray said.U.S. supply chains are struggling to ingest record cargo volumes that began surging into the country in the summer of 2020, a few months after the Covid-19 pandemic triggered lockdowns, when consumers switched their spending from services to goods. Imports were up 14% in 2021 over the year before at the nation’s busiest container port complex at Los Angeles and Long Beach, Calif., clogging port terminals, rail yards, truck yards and warehouses.Railroads carried record levels of intermodal cargo toward the end of 2020 and through the first half of 2021. But last summer, the system ground to a halt as rail yards in the Chicago area filled with tens of thousands of boxes, backing up shipments at a key hub for transport to destinations east of the Mississippi River.Rail and trucking industry officials say the congestion was caused by too many boxes flowing into the region for warehouses and truckers to handle, a situation that has popped up intermittently at other intermodal hubs around the country.
Shipping Fuel Costs: The Unseen Enemy In The Fight Against Inflation - Bunker prices are on the rise. This is not news in itself: it would have been surprising if the price of one oil derivative was down when the prices of all others were up. Yet it is becoming a cause for concern as higher bunker costs push maritime transport costs higher. With much of global trade relying precisely on maritime transport, higher prices are adding to already substantial inflationary pressures. And there doesn’t seem to be light at the end of this tunnel. Bunker prices climbed close to a record high earlier this month, with the average for very low sulfur fuel oil prices rising by 55 percent over 12 months to hit $731.50 per metric ton. Since then, prices have risen further. According to Ship & Bunker data, the average price for VLSFO among the world’s top 20 ports stood at $740 per metric ton. VLSFO is the most widely used marine fuel. One reason for this price rise seems to be the overall rebound in demand for fuels as economies return to normal after lockdowns. Another is that very low sulfur shipping fuel oil is generally more expensive than the higher-sulfur versions. Yet the International Maritime Organisation’s sulfur emission rules stipulate that vessels either need to use VLSFO or install scrubbers to remove sulfur from their bunkering. Higher crude oil prices are one more factor in the bunker price rise, of course, but another reason, however, spells more trouble. According to a Bloomberg report from this week, refiners are prioritizing gasoline and diesel production over bunker because of strong demand. And this means less crude will be available for the very low sulfur fuel oil that the majority of ships use.
Richmond Fed Manufacturing: Activity Softened in February --Fifth District manufacturing activity softened in February, according to the most recent survey from the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond. The composite index fell from 8 in January to 1 in February and indicates expansion. The complete data series behind today's Richmond Fed manufacturing report, which dates from November 1993, is available here. Here is a snapshot of the complete Richmond Fed Manufacturing Composite series. Here is an excerpt from the latest Richmond Fed manufacturing overview: Fifth District manufacturing activity softened in February, according to the most recent survey from the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond. The composite index fell from 8 in January to 1 in February, due to declines in the indexes for shipments and new orders. Both indexes turned negative, with the shipments index dropping notably from 14 in January to 11 in February. However, the third component in the composite index, employment, increased to 20 from 4 in January. Firms reported decreases in order backlogs, as the index became negative for the first time since June 2020. Vendor lead times increased for many firms as that index remained at nearhighs. Firms ’ historic perceptions about changes in local business conditions remained slightly negative; however, firms remained optimistic about future conditions. Link to Report Here is a somewhat closer look at the index since the turn of the century.
Kansas City Fed Survey: Activity Grew in February - The latest index came in at 29, up from 24 last month, indicating steady continued expansion in February. The future outlook rose to 38. All figures are seasonally adjusted. Here is a snapshot of the complete Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Survey. Quarterly data for this indicator dates back to 1995, but monthly data is only available from 2001. Here is an excerpt from the latest report: The Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City released the February Manufacturing Survey today. According to Chad Wilkerson, vice president and economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, the survey revealed that Tenth District manufacturing activity grew at a strong pace, and expectations for future activity increased. “Regional factory activity continued to increase in February,” said Wilkerson. “Firms noted that supply chain and shipping delays continue to cause issues. Most manufacturers reported higher business costs compared to a year ago and have passed through some of these costs to customers resulting in higher prices.” [Full report here] is a snapshot of the complete Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Survey.
Personal Income increased slightly in January; Spending increased 2.1% - The BEA released the Personal Income and Outlays report for January: Personal income increased $9.0 billion (less than 0.1 percent) in January, according to estimates released today by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Disposable personal income (DPI) increased $19.8 billion (0.1 percent) and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $337.2 billion (2.1 percent). Real DPI decreased 0.5 percent in January and Real PCE increased 1.5 percent; goods increased 4.3 percent and services increased 0.1 percent. The PCE price index increased 0.6 percent. Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index increased 0.5 percent The January PCE price index increased 6.1 percent year-over-year and the PCE price index, excluding food and energy, increased 5.2 percent year-over-year. The following graph shows real Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) through January 2022 (2012 dollars). Note that the y-axis doesn't start at zero to better show the change. The dashed red lines are the quarterly levels for real PCE. Personal income was above expectations, and the increase in PCE was also above expectations.
Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Decrease to 232,000 The DOL reported: In the week ending February 19, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 232,000, a decrease of 17,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 1,000 from 248,000 to 249,000. The 4-week moving average was 236,250, a decrease of 7,250 from the previous week's revised average. The previous week's average was revised up by 250 from 243,250 to 243,500.The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims since 1971.The dashed line on the graph is the current 4-week average. The four-week average of weekly unemployment claims decreased to 236,250.The previous week was revised up.Weekly claims were close to the consensus forecast.
New 50+ year low in continuing jobless claims --Initial claims (blue) declined 17,000 to 232,000 (vs. the pandemic low of 188,000 on December 4). The 4 week average (red) declined 7,250 to 236,250 (vs. the pandemic low of 199,750 on December 25). Continuing claims (gold, right scale) declined 112,000 to 1,476,000 (not just a new pandemic low, but the lowest number in over 50 years!):As anticipated, as the Omicron tsunami rolls back out, the recent increase in initial claims has abated, although I still suspect we have seen the lows in initial claims for this expansion. Still, it is consistent with a deceleration in monthly gains in nonfarm payrolls compared with last year. The decline in continuing claims to a 50 year+ low means that the record tightness in the jobs market isn’t going away anytime fast. There will be continuing upward pressure on wages.
‘Nurses Have Finally Learned What They’re Worth’ As the coronavirus spread, demand for nurses came from every corner. Some jobs for travelers paid more than $10,000 a week. Will the boom last? -- Almost immediately, the emergencies began. “You need to get over to 18!” someone shouted. Barraza grabbed his mask and ran. He started hand-pumping air into the patient’s lungs with a ventilation bag while two other nurses hooked the bag up to oxygen. They stabilized that patient, and Barraza jogged down the hallways to check on the other seven. One person’s blood pressure was dropping precipitously, and Barraza was preparing to go inside the room when he thought to check on another patient, one door down. That patient’s blood-oxygen level had dropped into the 40s, far below the normal range of 95 to 100. “So what do I do?” Barraza said. “Who do I help first? There are multiple people’s lives at stake at the same time. What if I pick wrong and someone dies?”A year and a half later, Barraza was sitting on the desk in the middle of the cardiac-intensive-care unit, or C.I.C.U. — which handles both coronary and Covid patients — looking around the group of nurses, remembering those first months of an ongoing crisis. “There were some funky things going on with staffing back then,” he told the group. Nurses were leaving the hospital to take traveling jobs in New York. The rest of the hospital was shut down, so the I.C.U. floor was the chaotic heart of a ghost town. The hospital had yet to hire traveling nurses to pad its local staff, and Mother’s Day felt like a turning point. It was the day Barraza recognized that the pandemic would be defined by twin emergencies, two figures that he would watch anxiously as they rose and fell: the waves of patients on ventilators in his I.C.U., and the number of nurses available to take care of them.In 2020 alone, Northwest lost 185 nurses — nearly 20 percent of its nursing staff. In the I.C.U., that number was closer to 80 percent. Many of those nurses left to take jobs with travel-nursing agencies, which placed them, on a temporary and highly lucrative basis, in hospitals throughout the country. When the nurses at Northwest quit, the hospital eventually hired its own travelers, who flowed onto Barraza’s floor to work for weeks or months at a time. There have been days when the unit was barely staffed and days when 20 travelers showed up unexpectedly. Barraza has watched friends burn out and retire. He has watched nurses leave for better pay or less stressful jobs. He has welcomed the strangers who have come to take their place — befriending them, folding them into his I.C.U. team and then watching them leave all over again.Bedside nursing has always been, as one hospital chief executive put it, a “burnout profession.” The work is hard. It is physical and emotional. And hospitals have built shortages into their business model, keeping their staffs lean and their labor costs down. When the pandemic hit, shortages only increased, pushing hospitals to the breaking point. Nationwide, the tally of nurses with both the skills and the willingness to endure the punishing routines of Covid nursing — the isolation rooms, the angry families and the unceasing drumbeat of death — is dwindling. In a survey of critical-care nurses last year, 66 percent of respondents said they were considering retirement.
Tyson Foods lifts mask mandate as states abandon COVID health measures -The meat packing giant Tyson Foods announced Tuesday that it would be ending its company-wide mask mandate for all vaccinated workers. Tyson is second largest meat packing company in the world with 139,000 employees across the globe, including 120,000 in the United States. Following a company-wide vaccine mandate last summer, 96 percent of Tyson workers have received at least two doses of Pfizer or Moderna’s vaccines or one dose of the Johnson and Johnson vaccine. However, while nearly all Tyson employees are eligible under the new guidelines, workers must still wear masks if required by local or state health officials. Additionally, the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) still requires masks for all meat packing workers at packaging facilities where it conducts inspections if there are “substantial” or “high” levels of transmission. Nearly all US counties remain at this level of community transmission. The bulk of employees affected will be at offices and distribution centers, as well as some sites inspected by the Food and Drug Administration (FDA), which may go maskless if local guidance allows it. However, while the majority of Tyson employees will not be immediately effected by the decision, that may change rapidly in the coming weeks. Across the country, states and local health officials are lifting mask mandates in promotion of the myth of the coronavirus pandemic becoming “endemic.” Over the last two weeks, 11 states and Washington D.C. have lifted indoor mask mandates, including New York and California, which saw massive surges of cases and deaths over the winter, and New Jersey, which has removed mask mandates for schools. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) has followed this wave of abandonment of mask mandates at the state level by declaring that it is considering repealing federal mask wearing guidance. “We want to give people a break from things like mask-wearing when these metrics are better, and then have the ability to reach for them again should things worsen,” said Rochelle Walensky, director of the CDC, earlier this week. “As we have fewer cases, people will become more comfortable with taking off their mask, but we will certainly want people to have the flexibility to wear one if they so choose.”This open promotion of a policy of mass infection was echoed by Jeff Zients, the White House COVID response coordinator, who said Wednesday that “We’re moving toward a time when COVID isn’t a crisis, but it’s something we can protect against and treat. The president and our COVID team are actively planning for the future.”
Pandemic travel highlighted 'air rage' and the need for a national no-fly list -Air rage has run rampant during the COVID-19 pandemic. Over 6,000 passengers have been placed on airline no-fly lists for exhibiting aggressive behavior during flights, including being unwilling to abide by the federal transportation face mask mandate. Air rage is unacceptable, for any reason. It threatens the safety of flight crew and passengers. The confined quarters of an air cabin makes every person vulnerable when a passenger acts out. The reasons for the air rage are likely justified in the minds of the perpetrator, but the behavior is unjustifiable to all.Given that the airlines have already created their own no-fly lists, is a national no-fly list even needed? The answer is yes. Unruly passengers are more likely to be less seasoned travelers who fly infrequently. As such, they would have no loyalty to any airline, so banning them on any one airline would not prevent them from flying another. Air rage is not about bad behavior on an airline, it is about bad behavior in the air system, which is airline independent. A national no-fly list accessible across all airlines would facilitate the sharing of such information. Note that each airline does not oversee airport security for their flights. The Transportation Security Administration (TSA) manages security across all airlines, further supporting a national no-fly list. A national no-fly list would be accessed by the TSA at airport security checkpoints, effectively preventing such people from even entering the sterile side of the airport. Most importantly, it would communicate zero tolerance for bad behavior during air travel across the entire air system. A national no-fly list also would serve as a deterrent for air rage. Passengers know that any bad behavior in flight would be dealt with across the entire air system, not just within airlines. This removes the airlines from the role of law enforcement to one of communicator, with the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) and TSA appropriately assuming responsibility for managing the unruly passengers after the incident.
Arizona state House panel passes bill proposing to make recordings of police illegal -An Arizona state House committee on Monday passed a proposed law that would make video recordings within 8 feet of police activity illegal,The Associated Press reports.The House panel voted 7-5, with no Democratic support, to pass the measure introduced by state Rep. John Kavanagh, which has been criticized by some as a potential violation of constitutional rights."We are extremely concerned that this language violates not only the free speech and press clauses of the First Amendment, but also runs counter to the ‘clearly established right’ to photograph and record police officers performing their official duties in a public place," the National Press Photographers Association, with support of several medial organizations, wrote in a letter in opposition to the bill.Kavanagh defended the measure, saying the proposed 8-foot distance, which was offered as an amendment, was modeled after a Supreme Court ruling involving abortion protesters."I think this fully conforms with constitutionality and weighs officer safety with the citizens’ right, the public’s right, to see law enforcement officers in action," Kavanagh said.If signed into law, the bill introduced by Kavanagh would make exceptions for certain situations including those being questioned by police or stopped by police while in a vehicle.
California Bill Would Allow Citizens to Enforce Assault Weapon Ban --California Democratic Gov. Gavin Newsom on Friday endorsed legislation that would allow private citizens to enforce the state’s ban on assault weapons. California’s new bill mimics a Texas law empowering private citizens to enforce the state’s draconian abortion ban by suing anyone who “aids or abets” an abortion after six weeks of pregnancy.After the right-wing dominated U.S. Supreme Court refused to strike down the Texas GOP’s effort to kill Roe v. Wade, Newsom vowed to work with California lawmakers to craft similar legislation targeting gun manufacturers. “If Texas can use a law to ban a woman’s right to chose and to put her health at risk, we will use that same law to save lives and improve the health and safety of the people in the state of California,” Newsom said Friday at a press conference. “There is no principled way the U.S. Supreme Court cannot uphold this California law. Full stop. It is quite literally modeled after the law they just upheld.” The Associated Press reported: Newsom said he hopes the proposal forces the U.S. Supreme Court’s hand on the Texas abortion law. He said it will either expose their “hypocrisy” if they should block California’s proposal that affects the gun industry and not the Texas law on abortion, “or it’ll get them to reconsider the absurdity of their previous decision.”While Republican-controlled states’ previous attempts to ban abortions after six weeks—before many individuals know they’re pregnant—have been blocked by courts, “Texas’ new abortion law is unique in that it bars the government from enforcing the law,” AP noted.“The idea is if the government can’t enforce the law, it can’t be sued to block it in court,” the news outlet continued. “That hasn’t stopped abortion providers from trying to block the law. But so far, the U.S. Supreme Court’s conservative majority has allowed the abortion law to stay in place pending a legal challenge.”The high court’s refusal to invalidate Texas’ law deputizing citizens to crack down on abortion providers motivated Newsom and Democratic lawmakers in California to develop analogous legislation that would permit citizens to go after gunmakers.“Our message to the United States Supreme Court is as follows: What’s good for the goose is good for the gander,” state Sen. Bob Hertzberg (D-18), the author of the proposal, said Friday. “I look forward to rushing a new bill to the governor’s desk to take advantage of that United States Supreme Court guidance.”
Woman who says she was mistakenly jailed for almost two weeks sues LAPD -A Los Angeles County woman on Tuesday filed a lawsuit against the Los Angeles Police Department (LAPD), Los Angeles airport police and the city of Los Angeles alleging that she was jailed for 13 days after being mistaken for a person with the same name, NBC News reports. Bethany K. Farber claims that she was arrested at the Los Angeles International Airport while on her way to Puerto Escondido, Mexico. Transportation Security Administration (TSA) officers took Farber to a room and held her for two hours before telling her she was wanted for arrest in Texas. Farber, who says she has never been to Texas, told the TSA officers that they were mistaken. The TSA allegedly did not confirm Farber’s identity or check her driver’s license. Farber’s lawsuit reads: “Plaintiff informed the TSA officers who prevented her from boarding her flight that she had never been to Texas, and she certainly was not wanted for any crime there. Plaintiff repeatedly asked the TSA officers to check again, and further informed them that if there was in fact a warrant for her arrest it was identity theft.” The LAPD held Farber at the Lynwood Women’s Jail for 13 days following her detention by the TSA. Faber says that her wrongful imprisonment violated her civil rights, adding that the defendants in the suit were negligent and intentionally caused emotional distress. “At no time did City Defendants ask Plaintiff for her driver’s license, date of birth, age, social security number or any other information which would have proven that Plaintiff did not have any warrant for her arrest in the State of Texas,” Farber’s lawsuit says.
‘Beacon of democracy’ turns out to be living hell of modern slavery - People's Daily Online -Private prisons in the U.S., as both a lucrative business and a kind of modern nightmare, epitomize the real human rights situation in the U.S., a country self-styled as a “beacon of democracy.” While the operators of these prisons make a ton of money, the incarcerated suffer from forced labor, abuse, as well as other types of human rights violations. Notorious land of sweatshops With 5 percent of the world’s population and a quarter of all incarcerated people in the world, the U.S. has witnessed how private prisons, which sprang up in the 1980s, have expanded rapidly over the past decades. Private prisons in the U.S. sign contracts with the federal government and local governments to provide inmate services, and get paid based on the number of prisoners they house. Besides receiving government subsidies, private prisons throughout the country also profit from forced labor. In 2020, inmates in private prisons around the U.S. produced more than one million U.S. dollars’ worth of commodities, including face masks and hand sanitizer, but were paid far less than the statutory minimum hourly wage in the country. Private prison inmates in the U.S. face atrocious working conditions, a result of the operators’ efforts to reduce operating costs. Due to poor health service capacity, the number of COVID-19 cases soared rapidly in private prisons in the U.S. since the first wave of the pandemic. As COVID-19 spread across the country in 2020, inmates in a women’s prison in Chino, California, the U.S., were forced to work overtime to stitch together masks, but were forbidden from wearing them, according to an article published on the website of the Los Angeles Times in October 2020, which said that in the end 352 inmates and 85 staffers had been infected with the coronavirus at the prison. Instances of corruption, among other types of scandals at private prisons in the U.S., such as prison breaks and the death of inmates, often come into public view under the spotlight. An investigation conducted by the Associated Press (AP) revealed that more than 100 federal prison workers have been arrested, convicted or sentenced for crimes since the start of 2019, according to an article published on the website of the news agency in November 2021.
North Carolina prison inmates initiate hunger strike against inhumane treatment and grossly inadequate pandemic response -- Intimates at Alexander Correctional Institution, a maximum security prison in Taylorsville, North Carolina, initiated a hunger strike this month in response to abuse and inadequate medical care.The strike came to light nearly two weeks ago after family members of one of the inmates contacted the non-profit law firm, North Carolina Prisoner Legal Services. Elizabeth Thomas, executive director of the law firm, explained to WUNC North Carolina Public Radio that prisoners were striking because “grievances are not being answered or are being delayed, sick calls are not being answered and prisoners aren’t seeing medical staff, the mail is being delayed, prisoners are infrequently allowed showers, cells are not being properly cleaned and prisoners aren’t being given cleaning supplies, prisoners are being retaliated against for filing [grievances], and prisoners are not being let out of their cells for recreation.” The WUNC report was published on February 15.Department of Public Safety spokesperson John Bull told WUNC, “[t]here is not a coordinated, single-issue hunger strike by offenders at Alexander.” Instead, he claimed that two prisoners had separately declared that they were on a hunger strike.However, it is unclear how many prisoners are actually involved in the hunger strike because prison officials, who exercise tight control over the flow of information, have a vested interest in limiting what the public knows about the conditions inside the prisons, a situation that has been made worse by the pandemic.
Court monitor testifies gangs control who eats at jail in Mississippi - A court monitor in Mississippi testified that gangs at a county jail have control over whether inmates receive meals, NBC affiliate WLBT reported. In a federal court hearing on Tuesday, Elizabeth Simpson, the court monitor tasked with ensuring the county complies with its jail consent decree, said that due to staffing shortages at Hinds County’s Raymond Detention Center, gangs or “inmate committees” enforce their own rules at the jail, including whether some inmates get to eat. Some inmates, including those in mental health units, experienced substantial weight loss as a result of the alleged gang system. Simpson also said inmate committees determined whether certain detainees could remain in the jail’s housing units as well, according to the NBC affiliate. “The detainees who control the unit decide who can be there and who can’t. If they don’t want (a detainee) there, they will set up assaults until they leave,” Simpson said in court. The evidentiary hearing will determine whether the prison is taken over by the federal government, according to WLBT. Simpson also testified that many inmates are being housed at the jail longer than their required sentence due to poor record-keeping, adding one inmate remained at the jail for too long because an employee used the wrong screen on a computer program to calculate his release date, the local outlet reported. “They don’t have a tracking system for people to be released,” Simpson said, according to WLBT. “They just have to remember who is there on sentence.”
Amendment to 'Don't Say Gay' bill in Florida requires schools to out students to their parents within six weeks - A new amendment to Florida’s “Don't Say Gay” bill would require schools to inform parents of their children’s sexual orientation within six weeks of learning the student isn't straight, NBC affiliate WFLA reported on Monday.The amendment was filed Friday by the bill’s co-sponsor, state Rep. Joe Harding (R). The bill, which has gained national attention and pushback, bars educators in Florida from talking about sexual orientation or gender identity in primary schools. Parents would be able to take legal action against school districts they believe have violated the measure.The original version of the legislation required schools to inform families of their child’s LGBTQ+ status but gave an option for exemption for the outing in cases where educators feared it could lead to abuse, neglect or abandonment.The amendment offers no such exception.It instructs school leaders to “develop a plan, using all available governmental resources,” to inform parents about their children's sexual orientation “through an open dialogue in a safe, supportive, and judgment-free environment that respects the parent-child relationship and protects the mental, emotional, and physical well-being of the student.”Another amendment to HB 1557 notes the potential risks that outing them could have on Florida students.Filed by Democratic state Rep. Ana Eskamani, it would allow students to sue the Florida Department of Education for damages for "irreparable harm" caused by the disclosure of their sexual orientation.The full bill, which has the support of Gov. Ron DeSantis (R), is set to face a vote in the Florida House this weekIt has been universally condemned by gay rights groups, as well as the White House."Every parent … hopes that our leaders will ensure their [children's] safety, protection and freedom, and today conservative politicians in Florida rejected those basic values by advancing legislation that is designed to target and attack kids who need that support the most, kids from LGBTQI+ community," Biden press secretary Jen Psaki said in briefing earlier this month. "Make no mistake, this is not an isolated action in Florida," she continued. "Across the country, we’re seeing Republican leaders taking action to regulate what students can or cannot read, what they can or cannot learn, and most troubling, who they can or cannot be. This is who these kids are, and these legislators are trying to make it harder for them to be who they are."
'Don't Say Gay' bill passes in the Florida House, goes to state Senate : NPR -Florida's House of Representatives passed a controversial bill on Thursday limiting when and how teachers and school staff can discuss gender and sexual orientation in the classroom. Opponents – many of whom have taken to calling the measure the "Don't Say Gay" bill – say it will make life harder for LGBTQ youth, who already face a higher rate of bullying and a higher risk of suicide than their straight, cisgender peers. But the Republican sponsor behind H.B. 1557 says it aims to have schools teach gender and sexuality at an appropriate age and keep parents informed about what's happening in the classroom. The legislation prohibits any instruction about sexuality or gender between kindergarten and third grade "or in a manner that is not age-appropriate or developmentally appropriate for students in accordance with state standards." It would also guarantee parents access to their children's education and health records and require that schools notify parents "if there is a change in the student's services or monitoring related to the student's mental, emotional, or physical health or well-being and the school's ability to provide a safe and supportive learning environment for the student."
Will parents of transgender kids be investigated in Texas? Governor's order sparks fear, uncertainty - Bills banning gender-affirming care for transgender youth have failed to become law in the Texas legislature, but the state’s governor on Tuesday set off a national firestorm by declaring the medical procedures should be investigated as child abuse. Critics say it's an unprecedented move, even amid a national push by GOP leaders to restrict transgender rights. Legal experts say the order from Texas Gov. Greg Abbott, based on an opinion by Attorney General Ken Paxton, is legally dubious and is likely to face a series of challenges in court. LGBTQ advocates say Abbott's order is deeply concerning because it ignores both medical science and existing laws surrounding gender-affirming care, escalates the political battle against gender-affirming care for transgender youth, and prompts widespread panic among transgender youth and their parents in Texas. Abbott’s order has led to concerns that all transgender youths and their parents will face the potential of being investigated. Teachers, for example, could face punishment for not reporting a trans student considered at risk of receiving gender-affirming care, some advocates have said. And while experts say there are legal hurdles standing in the way of that interpretation, the intimidation trans youth and their parents feel is real.
Maryland officials vote to let local school districts make mask policy decisions - The Maryland state Board of Education voted Tuesday in favor of allowing local school districts to decide on their own mask policies, with the decision now needing to be approved by the General Assembly's Joint Committee on Administrative, Executive and Legislative Review. As WBAL reported,, Maryland schools Superintendent Mohammed Choudhury recommended that school mask policies be left to local school boards. "Where we are it is the right time to bring it back to local control," Choudhury said. This decision by the board comes about a week after outgoing Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan (R) called on the panel to lift its statewide mask policy, WBAL noted. "We are making recommendations to the state Board of Education, which is also independent, you know, folks that represent the entire state, to say we think it's time to take a look," Hogan said. In a letter to the board, he wrote, "In light of dramatic improvements to our health metrics and the widespread availability of vaccines, I am calling on you to take action to rescind this policy." Earlier this month, Hogan formally ended the requirement of face masks in state buildings, citing "health metrics continuing to substantially decline." Effective on Tuesday, masks and face coverings are no longer required to be worn in state buildings, though they are still strongly recommended for the unvaccinated.
Southern US teachers discuss the fight to eliminate COVID-19 and stop the threat of war --The Southern Educators Rank-and-File Safety Committees, a regional group which represents committees from Alabama, Tennessee and Texas, held a public meeting Sunday to discuss the pandemic and its relationship to the danger of war. Educators were present from Alabama, Texas, Tennessee, Arkansas, Virginia and the West Coast. The presentations and discussion at the meeting offer insight into the deep shifts taking place in the consciousness of the American working class, which over the past two years has experienced the pulverizing effects of the COVID-19 pandemic and is starting to assimilate its lessons. Workers are increasingly aware of the fact that the richest country in the world also has the highest official death toll from COVID-19. Amazon workers see the purchasing power of their miserly paychecks dwindle, while Jeff Bezos flies himself to space. Donna, a Tennessee teacher, reported on the state of the pandemic, the efforts of the Biden administration to cover it up, and the escalating push for war against Russia by the US and NATO. Under conditions in which more than 2,000 people continue to die from COVID-19 each day in the US, with more than 950,000 reported deaths total, there is a concerted effort to declare the pandemic over. Democratic and Republican states, spearheaded by the Biden administration, are lifting all remaining measures to slow the spread of the disease, including reducing or ending contact tracing and removing mask mandates. Randi Weingarten, president of the American Federation of Teachers (AFT), recently called for the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) to provide an “off-ramp” for masks in schools, which Donna described as “another calamitous betrayal by the trade unions which have put workers in harm’s way during an unprecedented and deadly pandemic.” The campaign to force the population to live with a “new normal” has been accompanied by a pseudoscientific push to label COVID-19 “endemic,” a charge being led by California’s Democratic Governor Gavin Newsom with his plan, SMARTER. Notably, one scientist has warned that such an approach likely means death on a scale of 200,000 to 250,000 per year in the US.
Dozens of US colleges and universities end efforts to stop the spread of COVID-19 -- In California, University of California Berkeley resumed in-person instruction in late January. The administration has also announced that it will end its mask mandate on February 28. The broader Bay Area has already lifted the indoor mask mandate. Democratic governors in Oregon and Washington state recently announced an end to indoor mask mandates beginning mid to late March. Oregon officials announced that the statewide mask mandate will be lifted on March 31 or earlier, whenever hospitalizations fall below 400 total across the state. Universities across Oregon have stated that they will keep mask mandates in place until further notice. Portland State University has not made a decision to lift its mask mandate, but given the push by the Democratic Party to end mitigation measures, both universities said they would revisit this decision in March. Washington State University ended mandatory masking at large outdoor events beginning February 18, while keeping the indoor mask and vaccine mandates. University of Washington resumed fully in-person learning on January 31. Massachusetts will be lifting its masking requirements for K-12 schools statewide on February 28. “With Massachusetts a national leader in vaccinating kids, combined with our robust testing programs, it is time to lift the mask mandate in schools and give students and staff a sense of normalcy after dealing with enormous challenges over the past two years,” said Governor Charlie Baker. Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) in Cambridge is also further relaxing restrictions. On February 14 seating in dining halls returned to full capacity, and fully vaccinated staff and presenters were allowed to remove their masks during events and classes, while still requiring students to keep their masks on indoors, per the City of Cambridge policy. MIT has also reduced the testing requirement for students to once per week, as opposed to twice a week. Harvard is currently required by the city to keep its mask mandate in place; however, the university has ended almost every other mitigation policy. The school announced in early January that there will be “no more contact tracing in high volume.” Rather “individuals who test positive should identify and notify their close contacts.” The university has been prompted to make these radical changes—which have the potential of driving up COVID-19 cases, sickness and death among students, staff and the wider community—“in accordance with recommendations from public health experts and guidance from state and federal public health experts and guidance from state and federal public health agencies,” according to the Harvard Crimson .
Yale Law School to cover lowest-income students' tuition: report - Yale Law School will reportedly cover full tuition for its lowest-income students starting next fall in an effort to increase diversity and make degrees more accessible. The plan, according to The Wall Street Journal, includes scholarships worth roughly $72,000 to cover tuition, fees and health insurance for students from families with incomes below the federal poverty line, which is currently $27,750 for a family of four. Students will, however, have to pay living expenses estimated to be around $21,000 for this academic year, the Journal noted. Yale said about 8 percent to 10 percent of its currently enrolled law students are eligible for the award, known as the Hurst Horizon Scholarship, according to the newspaper. The Hill has reached out to Yale Law School for comment. The new scholarship comes as President Biden faces pressure from some lawmakers to disclose the details of his plans for handling student loan debt. Last month, over 80 lawmakers asked Biden to release information he requested from Education Secretary Miguel Cardona about his legal authority to cancel student loan debt. “Publicly releasing the memo outlining your executive authority on canceling student debt and broadly doing so is crucial to making a meaningful difference in the lives of current students, borrowers, and their families,” the lawmakers said in a letter. “It has been widely reported that the Department of Education has had this memo since April 5, 2021 after being directed to draft it,” they added.
Texas AG: Some types of medical care for transgender children are abuse -Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton (R) said in a statement that gender-affirming health care for transgender youth, including hormone therapy, puberty blockers and sex reassignment procedures, are abuse. Texas state Rep. Matt Krause (R) wrote to Paxton to inquire about whether treatment for transgender youth could be considered child abuse. In an opinion released Monday, Paxton said, "There is no doubt that these procedures are 'abuse' under Texas law, and thus must be halted.""The Texas Department of Family and Protective Services (DFPS) has a responsibility to act accordingly. I'll do everything I can to protect against those who take advantage of and harm young Texans.""While you refer to these procedures as 'sex changes,' it is important to note that it remains medically impossible to truly change the sex of an individual because this is determined biologically at conception," he wrote.Paxton added that "the prevalence of gender dysphoria in children and adolescents has never been estimated, and there is no scientific consensus that these sterilizing procedures and treatments even serve to benefit minor children dealing with gender dysphoria.The United States has seen an increase in Republican-led efforts to ban gender-affirming health care for transgender youth. There have also been efforts to prohibit transgender children, specifically transgender girls, from participating on a sports team that corresponds with their gender identity. Medical professionals, the LGBT community and transgender advocates have stated that if transgender children don't receive gender-affirming health care, they are at higher risk to suffer negative mental health consequences and even suicide.
Smoking before and after conception is linked to delayed embryonic development -- Smoking by mothers during the period immediately before and after conception is linked to a delay in embryonic development, smaller foetuses at the time of the 20-week ultrasound scan, and lower birth weight.The study, which is published today (Wednesday) in Human Reproduction [1],one of the world’s leading reproductive medicine journals, followed 689 women with singleton pregnancies between 2010 and 2018. The researchers found that by the tenth week of pregnancy, embryo development was delayed by nearly a day in women who smoked ten or more cigarettes a day compared to non-smokers, and by 1.6 days in smokers who had conceived by means of in vitro fertilisation (IVF) and intracytoplasmic sperm injection (ICSI). They also found that embryos were not able to “catch up” their development over the course of the pregnancy and were more likely to be born small for gestational age and with a median (average) birth weight 93 grams lower than babies born to non-smoking women.
Woman Appears Cured of HIV After Umbilical-Cord Blood Transplant - A woman in the New York City area appears to have been cured of an HIV infection, joining a small group of people whose recovery is providing researchers with road maps to beat one of nature’s most resilient viruses. The woman has shown no detectable signs of the human immunodeficiency virus in extensive testing since she stopped antiretroviral treatment in October 2020 following a transplant of stem cells with a rare genetic mutation that blocks HIV invasion, her doctors said.
High BMI in upper teens a risk factor for severe COVID-19 --Men with a high body mass index (BMI) in their upper teens had an elevated risk of severe COVID-19, requiring hospitalization, later in life, University of Gothenburg researchers show in a register study. For some time, overweight and obesity have been recognized risk factors for severe COVID-19. To date, however, there have been no studies to monitor large groups of individuals whose obesity was identified at an early age, and to find out how severely ill they become if they later get COVID-19. The present study, published in the journal Obesity, includes data from the Swedish Military Service Conscription Register on 1,551,670 men in Sweden, born between 1950 and 1987, who were conscripted for military service in the period 1969–2005. At the outset, their height and weight were measured. Merging the conscription data with three Swedish medical registers — the National Patient Register, the Intensive Care Register and the Cause of Death Register — revealed a clear connection between BMI in adolescence and the risk of getting COVID-19, many years later, severely enough to require hospitalization. Even clearer was the link between BMI in the upper teens and needing intensive care for the disease.
Cannabidiol Inhibits SARS-CoV-2 Replication and Promotes the Host Innate - Summary sentence: Cannabidiol from the cannabis plant has potential to prevent and inhibit SARS-CoV-2 infection. Abstract: The rapid spread of COVID-19 underscores the need for new treatments. Here we report that cannabidiol (CBD), a compound produced by the cannabis plant, inhibits SARS-CoV-2 infection. CBD and its metabolite, 7-OH-CBD, but not congeneric cannabinoids, potently block SARS-CoV-2 replication in lung epithelial cells. CBD acts after cellular infection, inhibiting viral gene expression and reversing many effects of SARS-CoV-2 on host gene transcription. CBD induces interferon expression and up-regulates its antiviral signaling pathway. A cohort of human patients previously taking CBD had significantly lower SARSCoV-2 infection incidence of up to an order of magnitude relative to matched pairs or the general population. This study highlights CBD, and its active metabolite, 7-OH-CBD, as potential preventative agents and therapeutic treatments for SARS-CoV-2 at early stages of infection.
Vitamin D isn't an effective COVID-19 treatment, but scientists haven't ruled out its relationship to severe disease Scientists have wondered since the start of the pandemic whether certain vitamins like zinc , vitamin C, or vitamin D improve outcomes for COVID-19 patients. Globally, some doctors continue to prescribe these supplements in hopes of promoting a healthy immune response. But a scientific review from the University of Toledo published last month found no evidence that taking zinc, vitamin C, or vitamin D reduces the risk of dying from COVID-19. The analysis looked at 26 peer-reviewed studies from around the world that encompassed more than 5,600 hospitalized COVID-19 patients. Patients who took zinc and vitamin C did so after they were admitted to the hospital. The study also included patients who took vitamin D before their COVID-19 diagnoses, as well as some who took the supplement after they got sick. Across all of these scenarios, vitamins didn't seem to lower the risk of mortality. But vitamin D reduced the length of a person's hospital stay if they started taking the supplement after their COVID-19 diagnosis, whereas zinc and vitamin C did not. Dr. Azizullah Beran, the study's lead researcher and a resident at the University of Toledo, said more studies are needed to know if vitamin D is an effective COVID-19 treatment. "If it showed benefit in patients with normal vitamin D levels, then for sure you can say, 'Oh, vitamin D works,'" Beran said. For now, he added, only patients who are deficient in these vitamins should take them as supplements.
Does severe COVID-19 affect pregnancy outcomes? - New research published in Acta Obstetricia et Gynecologica Scandinavica indicates that severe COVID-19 in pregnancy increases the risk of pre-labor caesarean birth, a very or extreme preterm birth, stillborn birth, and the need for admission to a neonatal unit. The study included 4,436 pregnant women hospitalized in the UK with symptomatic COVID-19 from March 1, 2020 to October 31, 2021 (13.9% of whom had severe COVID-19). In addition to having increased risks of adverse pregnancy-related outcomes, women with severe infection were more likely to be aged ≥30 years, be overweight or obese, be of mixed ethnicity, or have gestational diabetes compared with those with mild or moderate infection. “This new analysis shows that certain pregnant women admitted to a hospital with COVID-19 face an elevated risk of severe disease. However, it shows once again the strongly protective effect of vaccination against severe disease and adverse outcomes for both mother and baby,” said senior author Marian Knight, FMedSci, of the University of Oxford. “This study emphasizes the importance of ensuring that interventions to promote vaccine uptake are particularly focused towards those at highest risk.”
Increased Infectivity Drives COVID Evolution – Mutations That Allow the Virus To Escape Vaccines Become Dominant. --First announced by the World Health Organization on November 26, 2021, the SARS-CoV-2 omicron variant spread rapidly around the world, becoming the dominant variant in the U.S. and elsewhere. Now, researchers report in ACS Infectious Diseases and the Journal of Chemical Information and Modelingthat omicron and other variants are evolving increased infectivity and antibody escape, according to an artificial intelligence (AI) model. Therefore, new vaccines and antibody therapies are desperately needed, the researchers say.Understanding how SARS-CoV-2 evolves is essential to predicting vaccine breakthrough and designing mutation-proof vaccines and monoclonal antibody treatments. In a recent study in ACS Infectious Diseases, Guo-Wei Wei and colleagues analyzed almost 1.5 million SARS-CoV-2 genome sequences taken from people with COVID-19. They identified 683 unique mutations in the receptor binding domain (RBD), the region of the SARS-CoV-2 spike protein that attaches to the human ACE2 receptor on the surface of human cells.Then, they used an AI model to predict how these mutations affect binding strength of the RBD to ACE2 and to 130 antibody structures, including several monoclonal antibodies used as therapies. The team found that mutations to strengthen infectivity are the driving force for viral evolution, whereas in highly vaccinated populations, mutations that allow the virus to escape vaccines become dominant. The researchers also predicted that certain combinations of mutations have a high likelihood of massive spread.In another study in the Journal of Chemical Information and Modeling, Wei and colleagues took a deep dive into the omicron variant’s infectivity, vaccine breakthrough and antibody resistance. They used their AI model to analyze how the variant’s unusually high number of mutations on the spike protein affect RBD binding to ACE2 and antibodies. Their results indicated that omicron is over 10 times more infectious than the original coronavirus and 2.8 times more infectious than the delta variant. In addition, omicron is 14 times more likely than delta to escape current vaccines, and it is predicted to compromise the efficacy of several monoclonal antibody therapies. Many of these predictions have been verified by emerging experimental results, stressing the importance of developing a new generation of vaccines and monoclonal antibodies that won’t be easily affected by viral mutations, the researchers say.
Op-Ed: Omicron won't be the last coronavirus variant to haunt us - Los Angeles Times -- Think back to late June 2021, when there was containment of the American COVID-19 pandemic with fewer than 12,000 new cases a day and a total of 15,000 patients in the hospital. There was a declaration of independence from the virus on July 4, just as the Delta variant was starting its exponential growth. A major surge ensued, which was followed by yet another one with the Omicron variant, peaking with nearly 160,000 people hospitalized and almost 2,700 deaths per day — the most deaths since vaccinations became widely available. Even now, as we are descending from the Omicron wave, we still have more than 60,000 patients in the hospital and more than 2,000 deaths per day. The SARS-CoV-2 virus is still with us and is adroit at finding new ways to infect us at scale. As it evolved from the original strain in late 2019, and progressed to the Alpha and Delta variants, it became more virulent and infectious, not less. There is a misconception that the virus is destined to evolve to a more benign form. If we’ve learned anything from the pandemic, it’s that the virus has an extraordinary ability to adapt — and it is unpredictable. You can just look at the more than 50 new mutations present in Omicron to know there are seemingly infinite ways for it to further mutate and rearrange the 30,000 base pairs in its genome. Although we’d be fortunate for it to morph into a common cold coronavirus cousin, we certainly can’t count on that. There are just too many vulnerable hosts out there for more evolution of the virus to take place, including a wide variety of animals, vulnerable hosts out there for more evolution of the virus to take place, including a wide variety of animals, with potential to spill over to humans.
UK to offer fourth coronavirus vaccine shot to people 75 and over -The United Kingdom will offer a fourth dose of COVID-19 vaccine to certain vulnerable populations this spring, health officials there said Monday. The U.K will offer the additional shot to people aged 75 and over, as well as people in care homes for older adults and people 12 and over who are immunosuppressed. “We know immunity to COVID-19 begins to wane over time,” U.K. Health Secretary Sajid Javid said. “That’s why we’re offering a spring booster to those people at higher risk of serious COVID-19 to make sure they maintain a high level of protection. It’s important that everyone gets their top-up jabs as soon as they’re eligible.” The additional shot will be offered six months after the person’s last dose, and comes as the country prepares to lift all COVID-19 restrictions. U.K. officials noted most of the country's most vulnerable residents received their previous shot in September or October. A broader booster shot campaign, for additional higher-risk groups, could occur in the fall. The move from the U.K. could play into the debate in the United States over whether an additional shot is needed. So far, U.S. officials are not recommending fourth doses, except for immunocompromised people, though they say they are still studying the question and gathering data. A Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) study earlier this month found a third shot’s protection against hospitalization waned somewhat from 91 percent after two months to 78 percent after four months.
Bill Gates says the chances of catching a severe infection from COVID-19 are dramatically lower but he believes another pandemic is likely --Bill Gates has voiced his opinions on COVID-19 and future pandemics in a new interview.Speaking to CNBC at Germany's annual Munich Security Conference on Friday, he said the danger of experiencing severe disease from COVID-19 has "dramatically reduced." "The chance of severe disease, which is mainly associated with being elderly and having obesity or diabetes, those risks are now dramatically reduced because of that infection exposure," he said.He added, however, that he believes the world will see another pandemic."We'll have another pandemic. It will be a different pathogen next time," Gates said, per CNBC.But the Microsoft cofounder said he thought that if there was a rational response then "we'll catch it early" and it "won't go global like it did this time." In terms of whether it is possible to prevent another pandemic altogether, Gates told CNBC's Hadley Gamble: "If every country did what Australia did, then you wouldn't be calling it a pandemic." Gates has become a prominent figure in the fight against COVID-19 by pledging billions to response efforts.
Bill Gates: Omicron did ‘a better job’ building immunity than COVID-19 vaccines -Billionaire Bill Gates said the omicron variant moved faster than COVID-19 vaccines, creating a high level of natural immunity.While speaking at the Munich Security Conference, Gates, who has helped to fund the development and distribution of COVID-19 vaccines, was asked for his opinion on where the pandemic stands.“Sadly, the virus itself, particularly, the variant called omicron, is a type of vaccine, that is, it creates both B-cell and T-cell immunity, and it’s done a better job getting out to the world population than we have with vaccines,” the Microsoft co-founder said. “That means the chance of severe disease, which is mainly associated with being elderly and having obesity or diabetes, those risks are now dramatically reduced because of that infection, exposure.”Gates, who is not a medical doctor, noted that vaccination efforts moved too slowly for his liking.“It’s sad we didn’t do a great job on therapeutics, only two years in, and we have a good therapeutic,” Gates said. “Vaccines have took us two years to be in oversupply. Today, there are more vaccines than there is demand for vaccines.”Gates called for a quicker response “more like six months.”
A more contagious version of the Omicron variant has been spreading in US Scientists are keeping close watch on the BA.2 strain of the Omicronvariant that has quietly spread throughout the United States.BA.2 has now been detected in more than 30 states, makes up around 3.9 per cent of new infections, and appears to be doubling quickly, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s data tracker. “If it doubles again to 8 per cent, that means we’re into the exponential growth phase and we may be staring at another wave of Covid-19coming in the US,” Samuel Scarpino, the manager director of pathogen surveillance at the Rockefeller Foundation, told NPR.“And that’s of course the one we’re really worried about. We’re all on the edge of our seats,” Mr Scarpino said. BA.2 is believed to be far more contagious than the earlier Omicron strain, and was blamed for a fresh surge in Denmark. Yet fears of another Omicron wave in the United States may be averted given vaccination and immunity rates from previous infections.Nathan Grubaugh, an associate professor of epidemiology at the Yale School of Public Health, told NPR it would more likely lead to a long tail rather than a fresh surge. “A lot of us were assuming that it was going to quickly take off in the United States just like it was doing in Europe and become the new dominant variant,” Mr Grubaugh said. Other scientists warn that removing mask mandates will allow the new strain to spread. The fresh strain also appears to be better at avoiding the immune system’s defences than the original Omicron variant was.
Omicron BA.2 variant is spreading in U.S. and may soon pick up speed - As the omicron surge continues to decline in the U.S., infectious disease experts are keeping a close eye on an even more contagious version of the variant that could once again foil the nation's hopes of getting back to normal. The virus, known as BA.2, is a strain of the highly contagious omicron variant that appears to spread even more easily — about 30% more easily. Because BA.2 quickly overtook the original omicron in South Africa and other countries and has even caused a second omicron surge in Denmark, researchers have been bracing for the same thing to happen in the U.S. "A lot of us were assuming that it was going to quickly take off in the United States just like it was doing in Europe and become the new dominant variant," says Nathan Grubaugh, an associate professor of epidemiology at the Yale School of Public Health. So far that hasn't happened. Instead, BA.2 has slowly, but steadily spread even as the omicron surge continued to dissipate. The fear is that spread may be on track to rapidly accelerate in the near future. BA.2 has now been found from coast to coast and accounts for an estimated 3.9% all new infections nationally, according to the federal Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. It appears to be doubling fast. "If it doubles again to 8%, that means we're into the exponential growth phase and we may be staring at another wave of COVID-19 coming in the U.S.," says Samuel Scarpino, the manager director of pathogen surveillance at the Rockefeller Foundation. "And that's of course the one we're really worried about. We're all on the edge of our seats," he says. Some experts think it's unlikely BA.2 will trigger a massive new surge because so many people have immunity from prior infections and vaccination at this point. "The most likely thing that's going to happen is that it might extend our tail, meaning it might slow down the decrease in cases. But it's probably not going to lead to a new wave of cases," says Grubaugh. Omicron is still infecting more than 100,000 people and killing about 2,000 people every day in the U.S. So even though BA.2 doesn't appear to make people sicker than the original omicron, just slowing down the decline in new cases would translate to more serious illness and death.
Omicron BA.2 is bad news: Expert explains 3 reasons why subvariant can be as lethal as Delta. Read here -As new lab studies have revealed that Omicron subvariant BA.2 could cause severe illness like Delta and previously identified COVID variants, epidemiologist Eric Fang voiced that it needs to be upgraded to Variant of Concern. The three crucial things about the subvariant BA,2, also known as stealth Omicron, that the Japanese team has identified are - BA.2 may have features that make it capable of causing serious illness, it shows immune escape properties just like sub-variant BA.1. Further stealth Omicron is resistant to treatments like sotrovimab, the monoclonal antibody. The study has been posted on the preprint repository BioRxiv, however, it is yet to be peer-reviewed. The researchers said although BA.2 is considered as an Omicron variant, its genomic sequence is heavily different from BA.1. “And, this suggests that the virological characteristics of BA.2 are different from that of BA.1," they added. Calling this worrisome, Fang appealed that with Omicron BA2 surging globally, it needs to be upgraded to VOC. He also explains more about the subvariant in a series of tweets. BA2 is seriously bad news. It’s both faster transmission than BA2 and if it’s truly more severe and as evasive against prior immunity including BA1 old Omicron immunity— then it’d be the worse of 4 worlds, he said in a tweet.He also pointed out that being infected with BA.1 creates immunity against the subvariant, but not BA.2. Fang also said that studies have that there are two versions of BA.2 itself. Earlier this week, World Health Organisation also warned that the BA.2 is surging faster than the previously identified strain. And in case there is another Omicron wave, then we could see further infections of BA.2. Though the subvariant is more transmissible than BA.1, WHO officials said that there is not much difference in their severity. Echoing similar views, Dr. Rochelle Walensky, director of US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, said as quoted by CNN, “There is no evidence that the BA.2 lineage is more severe than the BA.1 lineage." However, they are keeping a close eye on BA.2. Time and again WHO has warned that Omicron is not mild. “It is less severe than Delta but we are still seeing significant numbers of hospitalisations of Omicron."WHO also pointed out that all other coronavirus variants, including alpha, beta and delta, continue to decline globally as omicron crowds them out. Among the more than 400,000 COVID-19 virus sequences uploaded to the world's biggest virus database in the last week, more than 98% were omicron. Meanwhile, the subvariant BA.2 appears to be “steadily increasing" and its prevalence has risen in South Africa, Denmark, the UK and other countries.
Omicron BA.2 sub-strain should be upgraded as 'variant of concern', demands US health expert. Here's why - A laboratory study on the BA.2 sub-strain of the Omicron variant of the coronavirus, conducted recently in Japan, ended with the conclusion that it is ‘not only faster at spreading, but also likely to cause more severe disease.’ The suggestion put forth by the exercise has prompted leading American public health scientist, Dr Eric Feigl-Ding, to demand that BA.2 be immediately declared as a ‘variant of concern' (VoC).Worrisome—New lab experiments from Japan show that #BA2may have features that make it as capable of causing serious illness as older variants–including Delta! And yet as evasive as old #Omicron cousin BA1. #BA2 surging—needs upgrade to VOC asap @WHO!https://t.co/j6P3gwxMTk — Eric Feigl-Ding (@DrEricDing) February 18, 2022 Here's what the research, conducted by a team led by experts from University of Tokyo, found:
- (1.) Upon infecting hamsters with BA.1 and BA.2 sub-strains, it was discovered that the ones infected with BA.2 got sicker and developed worse lung infection. This was evident from tissues samples, as researchers found lungs of hamsters infected with BA.2 to be more damaged than those that got BA.1.
- (2.) From neutralisational experiments, the team found that this latest subvariant, first detected in February this year in countries such as Denmark and the UK, is resistant to antibodies, developed from vaccination against Covid-19. This feature is present in the original Omicron as well.
- (3.) Also, BA.2 was found resistant to the antibodies in people who were infected with the earlier variants of SARS-CoV-2, and ‘almost completely resistant’ to some monoclonal antibody treatments used to treat this disease.
- (4.) The authors also noted that BA.2 has started ‘outcompeting’ BA.1. This, according to them, suggests that the latter is more transmissible than the original Omicron.
- (5.) They further said that though BA.2 is considered as an Omicron variant, its genomic sequence differs vastly from that of BA.1. This is an evidence that the two sub-strains have completely different virological characteristics, the researchers said.
- (6.) Last week, the World Health Organization (WHO) announced that though BA.2 is more transmissible than BA.1, it is not more severe.
- (7.) Omicron was first detected in November last year, in Botswana and South Africa. Since then, the BA.1 subvariant has been found in many more countries and has also outcompeted earlier variants, such as Delta.
Deadly BA.2 subvariant of Omicron spreading in more than 74 countries -The BA.2 subvariant of Omicron accounts for a rising proportion of COVID-19 cases across the globe. The World Health Organization (WHO) reported this week that it was present in more than 74 countries worldwide. This colorized transmission electron microscope image shows SARS-CoV-2—also known as 2019-nCoV, the virus that causes COVID-19—isolated from a patient in the U.S. Virus particles are shown emerging from the surface of cells cultured in the lab. (Source: NIAID-RML) The WHO’s Technical Lead for COVID-19, Dr. Maria Van Kerkhove, elaborated on Omicron and its sublineages during a press briefing, underscoring the critical distinction that infections with Omicron are not mild and continue to hospitalize and kill at record numbers across the globe. She noted, “It’s really quite incredible how quickly the Omicron, the latest variant of concern, has overtaken Delta around the world. Most of the sequences are this sublineage BA.1. We are also seeing an increasing in proportion of sequences of BA.2. Omicron is more transmissible than Delta—all of the sublineages [are].” Van Kerkhove continued, “But within the sublineages, Omicron BA.2 is more transmissible than BA.1. And so, what we are looking for in the epi[demic] curves, we’re looking at not only how quickly those peaks go up, but how they come down. And as the decline in cases occur, we also need to look at is there a slowing of that decline or will we start to see an increase again? If we start to see an increase, we could see some further infections of BA.2 after this big wave of BA.1.” Worldwide, there were more than 16 million new infections and over 73,400 deaths last week. Since December 27, 2021, weekly global deaths have been rising for six consecutive weeks surpassing the Delta peaks seen in the late summer of 2021. Currently, based on sequenced coronavirus genomes uploaded into GISAID, the BA.1 subvariant remains dominant. BA.2 appears to be increasing steadily in several countries where it is displacing BA.1. Its prevalence has notably risen in South Africa, Denmark and the UK. In South Africa, where Omicron was first sequenced, the seven-day moving average of new infections has plateaued at 2,500 per day. The death rate, however, has risen tenfold since mid-November, with an average of 164 deaths per day. Of note, more than 9,000 South Africans have died during the Omicron wave accounting for almost 10 percent of all COVID deaths. Rates of children dying were up by a factor of 2.2. On February 17 there were 435 deaths reported, a single-day high during the Omicron phase of the pandemic. In line with these findings, the moving average case fatality rate of COVID-19 in the country has been rapidly climbing. Viral sequences submitted to GISAID between January 24 to February 7, 2022, found that BA.2 accounted for 65 percent of cases. The question that has arisen from these developments is what role BA.2, with all studies supporting its increased infectivity, will have on the course of the pandemic. Dan Barouch, an immunologist and virologist at Beth Israel Deaconess Medical Center in Boston, Massachusetts, told Nature, “It might prolong the Omicron surge. But our data would suggest that it would not lead to a brand-new additional surge.”
Wisconsin records first child death from MIS-C, condition triggered by COVID-19 infection - On February 18, the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel reported that a child in southeastern Wisconsin had died from complications related to COVID-19. Specifically, the child passed away from Multiple Inflammatory Syndrome in Children (MIS-C), a supposedly “rare” condition that is still little understood by doctors and scientists. No details were made public save the fact that the child was under 10 years old. Overall, 183 children in the state have been diagnosed with MIS-C, with 33 new cases reported since the start of 2022. As of January 31, there had been 6,851 cases of the syndrome confirmed in the United States by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. In this Sept. 27, 2017 photo students learn about searching for books and keeping track of what they've read in the library at Bruce-Guadalupe Community School, a charter school in Milwaukee. (AP Photo/Ivan Moreno) Occurring two to six weeks after a child has been diagnosed as positive for COVID-19, MIS-C can appear even when the child has mild symptoms from the disease or even no symptoms at all. The condition has a number of harrowing effects on children, including heart palpitations, ragged breathing, fever, diarrhea, vomiting, chronic fatigue, migraines, as well as physical swelling of the face, hands and feet. The eyes, lips and tongue can also swell, causing difficulty eating, swallowing and speaking. The deadliest possible impacts include cardiac dysfunction and inflammation, which can stop the equal circulation of blood throughout the body and potentially shutting it down. The impact of COVID-19 on children as they continue to be forced back into school through the “herd immunity” policy, adopted at every level of government, continues to be disastrous. Dr. Katherine Clouser of New Jersey operates one of the very few pediatric COVID recovery centers and has spoken about the toll this is taking on children throughout the country. Speaking with the Daily Mail she noted, “Kids typically bounce back from illnesses really well. … For some reason, this one [COVID-19] is really having a bad effect on the body. It’s affecting many body cells, the lungs, the muscles and the stomach. Everything.” Clouser also spoke of children’s growing wariness toward in-person schooling and anxiety spending time in crowded classrooms and hallways while the disease continues to run rampant with hardly any mitigation measures. Continuing, she wrote, “They’ve never been anxious about school before and all of a sudden, now they are, and they’re just having a harder time bouncing back.”
Coronavirus dashboard for February 23: the Omicron wave has receded by almost 90%; what about deaths? - The Omicron wave peaked in the US on January 14, at a 7 day average of 806,928. As of yesterday, the average was 86,553, an 89% decline! But before you get too excited, while that is the lowest number since mid-November (minus the days after Thanksgiving when there was very limited reporting), it remains higher than at any point during 2020 before November of that year, and between March and August of 2021. In order to get down to their July 2021 lows, cases would have to continue to decline at their same rate since peak for another 4 to 5 weeks: Deaths during the Omicron wave peaked on February 1, (only) 18 days after cases, at a 7 day average of 2,670. As of yesterday, they were down 27% at 1,939, conquerable to where they were on January 14, 18 days before the peak: This is a slower rate of decline than cases, which 21 days after their peak were already down 60%!. Cases were already down 27% from peak only 13 days later. On the one hand, if deaths were to decline in line with cases, we would expect deaths to be down to about 300 within a month. On the other hand, if deaths continue to decline as they have since their peak, then within a month they will be about 1200. That’s a big difference! Let’s turn to a State which had an early and huge Omicron wave, New York, for further clues. Cases in NY peaked on January 9 at 74,186. They are now, 44 days later, at 2,975, or a decline of 96%! This is the lowest number of new cases since August 4, although for perspective NY had its lowest number of cases on June 25 at 314. Deaths peaked in NY on January 22, only 13 days after cases, at 206. They are now, 31 days after the peak, at 58: This is a 72% decline. By contrast, 31 days after the peak in cases NY was down 91%. Cases had declined by 72% on January 27, only 18 days after their peak. Note that the NY comparison, -72% in deaths vs. -91% in cases the same length of time after peak, is much closer than the US comparison, -27% vs. -89%. Also, NY cases peaked 5 days before the US as a whole, and deaths in NY peaked 10 days before the US as a whole. In other words, the peaking process in deaths for the US as a whole was much more extended than for NY. Put another way, deaths in the US have shown a more extended peaking process in the US compared with cases. This is more in line with earlier waves of the virus, where deaths peaked 3 to 4 weeks after cases. There is evidence of the same pattern in other countries. Deaths in the UK had a similar long peak compared with cases, before falling in lockstep, now down about 50%. Portugal is also showing a similar long peak in deaths, but since cases only peaked 3 weeks ago, more cannot be said. The same is the case with Israel. In Canada deaths look slightly elongated as well, but are now down over 50%, following the pattern in cases (no graphs, because of the aforesaid glitch with 91-Divoc today). If we figure that the wave in deaths is more extended on both the upside and downside, than we can expect the decline in deaths to accelerate now that we are 3 weeks past peak, more in line with the NY decline, making for a roughly 70% decline from peak within a month. That amounts to about 800 deaths per day, still lower than at any time during 2020, and lower than any time during 2021 except for May through early August.
Ohio reports 313 new COVID-19 deaths, 1,612 new cases - Ohio has had 2,651,304 total cases of COVID-19, an increase of 1,612 cases from Feb. 24 according to the state's coronavirus dashboard updated Feb. 25. The state's 21-day average of new COVID-19 cases is 2,193. Ohio has an average of 160.7 cases per 100,000 residents over two weeks, the ODH reported Feb. 17. The individuals who have tested positive range in age of less than a year to 111 years old; the median age is 38. As of Feb. 25, the total number of tests conducted in Ohio is 21,586,837. The daily percent positivity of confirmed laboratory tests is 3.7%, with a seven-day moving average of 5.2%, according to Feb. 23 data reported by performing labs via ODH's electronic laboratory reporting system. Cuyahoga County accounts for 266,217 of the cases, 12,430 hospitalizations and 3,624 deaths. Summit County accounts for 111,530 of the cases, 8,253 hospitalizations and 1,640 deaths. The ODH has changed how it releases COVID-19 deaths in the state after conducting a review of the process. Deaths will be verified by coded death certificate information received from the National Center for Health Statistics, which can take some time to receive, according to a note on the ODH website. Death information is not available daily and is updated twice a week. Ohio residents account for a total of 36,580 COVID-19 deaths, the ODH reported Feb. 25; the median age of those who have died is 76.
COVID-19 disaster intensifies across the Pacific - After thousands of COVID-19 cases, including of the virulent Omicron strain, gained a foothold in the Pacific last month, the pandemic is running out of control across the region. The impoverished island countries, which recorded virtually no infections in 2020–2021 due to their geographic isolation and strict border controls, are now battling the virus and seeking to prevent it from overwhelming fragile health and social systems. Case numbers are climbing in Tonga as the kingdom reels from the devastating January 15 volcanic eruption and tsunami. Recovery work is hampered by the COVID-19 outbreak, with 208 confirmed cases, up from 139 last Monday. Infections are in both main islands of Tongatapu and Vava’u, including the suburbs of the capital Nuku’alofa. Thirty cases are in Hu’atolitoli prison. Tonga’s government imposed a five-day lockdown on February 2, after five people tested positive. The virus appears to have spread from foreign ships bringing aid. The initial cases included two workers who were helping unload ships at the Queen Salote Wharf in the capital. The Australian navy vessel, HMAS Adelaide, reported 23 of its crew had the virus when it arrived on January 26 and made a “contactless” delivery of supplies. Twenty-five passengers who arrived in Tonga earlier this week have also tested positive. The infected passengers were among 180 Tongan nationals on three repatriation flights from Fiji, New Zealand and Australia. Conditions in Tonga are dire, with the United Nations warning that more international help is desperately needed. An estimated 85,000 people, about 85 percent of the population, have been directly affected. The government says the recovery will take years. According to World Bank estimates, there is $US90.4 million in immediate damage, the equivalent of 18.5 percent of Tonga’s GDP. Journalist Kalafi Moala told Stuff on February 12 that the psychological effects of the eruption and now the COVID-19 outbreak are a major concern. Tonga had recovered from natural disasters before, but this is a “different ball game altogether,” Moala said, involving “a huge sense of grief and despair.” As governments across the Pacific ease border controls and public health measures in line with their international counterparts, COVID-19 is escalating in their communities. The Cook Islands, a semi-colony of NZ with fewer than 20,000 inhabitants and one of the last remaining countries without COVID-19, has now reported its first cases. A New Zealand tourist tested positive upon their return home on February 8, after 8 days in the Cook Islands, while the second case arrived on a flight from New Zealand on February 10. The traveller was asymptomatic on arrival but returned a positive result a few hours later. Two close contacts have since tested positive and Prime Minister Mark Brown warned that “silent transmission” in the country is likely. The Cook Islands and New Zealand governments re-opened a “travel bubble” on January 14, enabling travel between the two countries without quarantine restrictions. Cook Islands authorities told TVNZ that despite the danger of an outbreak “the border remains open” and “it’s business as usual.” Children under the age of 5 can head to the Cooks from March 1 after a travel ban on them was lifted this week. Cook Islands Tourism manager Graeme West declared the move will make the destination “even more attractive to families.”
Commentary: What's behind WSJ's recognition of China's anti-COVID policy - People's Daily Online (Xinhua) -- The Wall Street Journal, a typical China critic, has recently acted out of character and given quite some credit to China's "dynamic zero-COVID policy." In an article titled "China's 'Zero-COVID' Policy Holds Lessons for Other Nations," a rare breed of Western media's China reports, the paper, with some sense of objectivity and rationality, concluded that "China's success" holds lessons for the West, not least the United States. While the article itself is definitely worth studying and could offer guidance for the West to step out of the pandemic mire, what's behind the "abnormal turn" of The Wall Street Journal's position on China is also a point worth pondering. First of all, it highlighted Beijing's unquestionable achievements in fighting COVID-19 -- China's deaths and hospitalizations are far below the global average amid the still raging pandemic. China has taken the lead in economic recovery, injecting continuous vitality and confidence into the world economy. Given the irrefutable facts, The Wall Street Journal admitted that China's "dynamic clearing" policy is effective and "holds lessons" for other countries. Secondly, it exposed the distorted mentality of Western public opinion towards China. The report admitted that it is difficult for Westerners to "evaluate China's COVID-19 response dispassionately," and geopolitical tension with China "tends to muddy China's achievements and its lessons" for the Western countries. "All China's policies are not democratic" and "everything China does well must contain problems," -- with such a bigoted mindset, some Western media has, for a long time, chosen to ignore the facts and spare no efforts to slander and attack China. Third, it perceived the U.S. anti-pandemic drive as a fiasco. Since the outbreak of the pandemic, the United States has long ranked first worldwide in terms of both caseload and death toll, and hundreds of Americans still are dying from COVID-19 every day. The continuous spread of the disease in the United States has led to a shortage of workers, which has resulted in a huge backlog of cargo at ports, disrupted supply chains, and exacerbated price hikes.
COVID surges in New Zealand, protesters against mandates chase away Ardern - (Reuters) - New Zealand Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern was rushed out of a school event in Christchurch on Thursday after protesters opposed to COVID restrictive measures thronged the venue and chased her car, while daily infection numbers hit record levels. New Zealand reported over 6,000 new cases of COVID-19, with 250 hospitalisations, and the government expects the outbreak to peak in mid-March. Having been lauded earlier for her success in keeping the country COVID-free, Ardern has been fiercely criticised recently for the slow unlocking of restrictive measures. Demonstrations against her leadership that began in the capital, Wellington, have now spread to other parts of the North and South Islands. In Christchurch, angry protesters surrounded her car as she left a school event, with some chasing the car down a long driveway and screaming abuse about mandates and pandemic restrictions, state broadcaster TVNZ reported. Speaking on the incident later, Ardern said: "I'm choosing not to focus on ultimately what was two people," adding that a majority of New Zealanders agreed with the level of restrictions she imposed to contain Omicron. But, the sharp rise in COVID cases resulting from the highly infectious Omicron variant has forced the government to rethink its strategy.
NPRA: Half of reported deaths among Covid-19 booster recipients nothing to do with jabs, remaining cases still under probe — The National Pharmaceutical Regulatory Agency (NPRA) today revealed that since the rollout of Covid-19 booster shots in the country, 44 cases involving suspected deaths from adverse events following Covid-19 immunisation (AEFI) have been reported. NPRA director Dr Roshayati Mohammad Sani during a media briefing session today said that of the 44 cases reported until February 18, 22 have been ruled out by the Health Ministry’s pharmacovigilance committee (JFK) as having anything to do with Covid-19 vaccines. “The remaining 22 cases are still under investigation and the process of being completed before it can be presented for evaluation to JFK,” she said. Dr Roshayati said a total of 13,768,697 booster shots had been administered as of Feb 18. Dr Roshayati said 65 million doses of Covid-19 vaccines have been administered nationwide since the national immunisation programme started on February 24 last year, “From that number a total of 25,211 AEFI reports have been received by the NPRA including 1,186 AEFIs from booster doses,” she said during the press briefing conducted online. She said that 93 per cent of overall AEFI reports or 23,453 cases were categorised as not serious while 1,758 AEFI reports were classified as serious. “Non-serious AEFIs are usually resolved within a day or two. Examples of non-serious AEFIs include fever, headache, muscle ache and fatigue. “While serious AEFIs were classified as cases with effects requiring hospitalisation, prolonged stays in the ward, life-threatening symptoms and those suspected to have resulted in death,” she said. Dr Roshayati added that the NPRA is constantly monitoring other safety issues related to Covid-19 vaccine which is identified globally as Adverse Events of Special Interest (AESI). “Among the AESI being monitored closely by NPRA is inflammation of the heart muscle/lining of the heart [myocarditis/pericarditis] and venous thromboembolism with thrombocytopenia [venous blood clotting with platelet count low]. “Myocarditis/pericarditis has been identified to occur globally among individuals who had received the mRNA-type Covid-19 vaccine including Comirnaty, but it is extremely rare,” she added.
COVID pandemic continues mass killing, notably focused on US and Russia - While temporarily overshadowed by the crisis in Ukraine, the COVID-19 pandemic continues to take a deadly toll in country after country, with the two nuclear-armed countries on the brink of war, the United States and Russia, placing first and third in daily coronavirus deaths. Registered nurse Morgan Flynn prepares to enter a patient’s room in the COVID-19 Intensive Care Unit at Dartmouth-Hitchcock Medical Center, in Lebanon, N.H., Monday, Jan. 3, 2022. (AP Photo/Steven Senne) Like a century ago, when World War I and the influenza pandemic overlapped, working people around the world are once again facing the intersection of war and pandemic. World War I was the impetus for the emergence of the 1918 influenza virus that killed an estimated 50 million people and infected around 500 million or one-third of the population of the world at that time. By comparison, the war led to the loss of 20 million lives, military and civilian, less than half the death toll of the pandemic. A hundred years later, all the social and political contradictions that ignited that colossal war remain unresolved. In that regard, the COVID pandemic, which has infected 430 million people and killed 20 million in the last two years, has served as a trigger event for the chain reaction of events now focused on Ukraine. Even as that conflict escalates, the pandemic continues to infect and kill despite all efforts by major capitalist countries to dispense with tracking the figures, or even feigning concern. The current tally places the number of people with COVID-19 worldwide at more than 431 million and the number of reported COVID deaths at 5.94 million. The week beginning February 14, 2022, despite the decline in new cases, another 12.8 million infections were added to the list, and another 66,571 people needlessly died.
Sewage Sampling Already Tracks Covid. What Else Can It Find? - ISSMAT KASSEM, A microbiologist and assistant professor at the University of Georgia’s Center for Food Safety, has been worried for a while about antibiotic resistance. His research focuses on what he calls hitchhiker genes, short strings of DNA that get passed among bacteria like trading cards. For several years, he had been tracking the worldwide spread of one hitchhiker, a set of genes called mcr that defuse the effectiveness of one of the most valuable antibiotics in medicine: colistin, used on life-threatening infections when other medications fail.The mcr genes were first found in China in 2015, in E. coli bacteria present in pigs at a slaughterhouse and pork in markets, and also in infections found in hospital patients in two provinces. Ever since, they have been popping up in people, animals, and environmental samples across the globe. That includes a half-dozen sightings in the United States, in patients in Connecticut, Michigan, New Jersey, New York, and Washington State. Every sighting constituted a potential emergency, because if the bacteria carrying mcr spread to other people—or if the genes passed into other pathogens—it could take away one of medicine’s last-resort defenses. But there was no connection between those US patients, and no known event that could explain their infection—and without those pieces of data, no easy way to set up a surveillance scheme to test how widespread its dispersal might be.Kassem understood that he couldn’t trek door to door or farm to farm to determine whether mcr was hiding in the guts of US residents, or the animals they planned on eating—but he could go to places where gut contents end up. Last year, he collected a sample of raw sewage from the wastewater treatment plant of a mid-sized city a few hours’ drive from his university, the first step in what he thought would be an ongoing project. But immediately, in that first sample, he identified mcr, hiding not in E. coli but in a common environmental bacterium called M. morganii. The gene was stitched into an array of others that confer resistance to additional antibiotics, making the bacterium—which Kassem grew on lab plates and then sequenced—a potentially formidable foe.Kassem’s discovery is notable for finding colistin resistance where there was no prior evidence to expect it. But it also validates the technique by which he found it: looking in wastewater for a signal of the presence of pathogens. “Sewage is like a litmus paper for whatever is circulating in a community,” he says. “Everything goes into it. So if there's any pathogen, any gene, any anything you are concerned about, that's where you should be looking.”
Avian flu found in some Florida bird species - A strain of the avian flu has been detected in multiple species of birds in Florida, officials announced Tuesday. Cases of highly pathogenic avian influenza strain H5 2.3.4.4 were confirmed by the National Veterinary Services Laboratory, the Florida Fish and Wildlife Conservation Commission (FWC) said in a press release. The strain was found in a lesser scaup, black vultures and other species. There is a low risk of transmission to humans and there have been no known human infections of the strain in North America to date, the agency noted. The FWC said it is investigating bird mortalities in Brevard, Indian River and Volusia counties believed to be caused by the strain, which has been documented in the U.S. since 2021 and was recently detected in a hunter-harvested blue-winged teal in Palm Beach County last month. Officials advised the public to "avoid handling sick or dead wildlife, prohibit the contact of domestic birds with wild birds" and report any wild bird deaths to the FWC for investigation.The agency noted that it is working closely with the U.S. Department of Agriculture Wildlife Services, the Florida Department of Agriculture and Consumer Services, the Florida Department of Health and other wildlife researchers to investigate wild bird deaths. Detections of the avian flu in birds have also been reported in other states this month, including New York, Virginia and Kentucky. Despite the reports, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said earlier in the month that the risk to the general public's health is low.
Tick Survives 27 Years in Researcher’s Lab, 8 Years Without Food – A tick survived for 27 years in a researcher's laboratory including eight without food—a new record for the species. Julian Shepherd, associate professor of biological science at Binghamton University in New York, also found that a female tick was able to store sperm and reproduce from it four years after the last male tick in his study group died.His findings are published in the Journal of Medical Entomology.Argus Brumpti is a species of soft tick found in southern and east Africa. Shepherd said he had received ticks collected in Kenya as a gift in 1976 and decided to study them in a stable habitat he set up in his lab.The scientist was given six adult females, four adult males and three nymph Argas brumpti. He had no idea that the animals would go on to survive for decades in a feat of tick longevity previously unknown to science. "I am always enthralled by the adaptations of organisms to their environment—in this case, a dry environment with virtually no access to water for long periods of time and a lifestyle that must wait for very long intervals of no food between encounters with host animals," Shepherd said in a statement. The ticks lived on lab rabbits, mice and rats until Shepherd decided to take these animals away in 1984. The male ticks survived for four years with no food. The females lived for another four, at which point Shepherd started feeding them again. One of the original females then reproduced, laying a batch of eggs—despite the last male dying at least four years earlier. Shepherd said one possible explanation for this is that the ticks are able to store sperm for long periods. "The longevity of these ticks is apparently a record for any species of tick," Shepherd wrote in the study. "The delay in reproduction likely represents long-term storage of viable sperm, also apparently a record for any species of tick." Like these ticks, other animals have been known to survive incredible lengths of time without food. Tardigrades for example, microscopic animals also known as water bears, have been known to survive without any food for 30 years. Olms, a type of cave salamander, can live without food for up to a decade, while large crocodiles can go over a year without eating.
Children with higher exposure to air pollution and lower exposure to green space have 62% increased risk of ADHD - Children living in areas with higher air pollution due to PM2.5 particles and very low levels of green space might have up to 62% increased risk of developing ADHD. On the contrary, children living in greener and less polluted areas have a 50% lower risk of developing the disorder. These are the conclusions of a paper published in Environment International with data from 37,000 children from Vancouver (Canada). The study was led by Matilda van den Bosch, researcher at the Barcelona Institute for Global Health (ISGlobal), a centre supported by the ”la Caixa” Foundation.The aim of this scientific work was to investigate the possible associations between exposure to greenness, air pollution and noise in early life with later incidence of ADHD, one of the most prevalent neurodevelopmental disorders, which affects up toapproximately 5-10% children and adolescents. One of the goals of the study was to evaluate possible joints effects of these exposures in relation to ADHD.The study used administrative data of births in Metro Vancouver from 2000 to 2001 and retrieved data on ADHD cases from hospital records, physician visits and prescriptions. The percentage of green space in the participants’ neighbourhood was estimated with a novel and precise satellite metric, while the residential levels of two air pollutants —NO2and PM2.5— as well as noise levels were estimated using available exposure models. Finally, the possible associations between the three environmental exposures and ADHD were assessed using a statistical model that allowed to determine hazard ratios.The researchers were able to identify 1,217 cases of ADHD, equivalent to a 4.2% of the total study population. The green space analysis revealed that participants living in areas with a greater percentage of vegetation had a lower risk of ADHD. More specifically, the results show that a 12% increase in vegetation percentage was associated with a 10% reduction in the risk of ADHD.Regarding air pollution, the opposite association was observed with PM2.5: participants with a higher exposure to fine particles had higher risk of ADHD (every 2.1 µg increase in the levels of PM2.5 translated into an 11% increase in the risk of ADHD).No associations were found for the rest of environmental exposures assessed: NO2 and noise.
Prenatal exposure to phthalates may affect infants’ health - Phthalates are endocrine disrupting chemicals that are used in plastics and as food additives. A recent study in Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry examined whether prenatal exposure to phthalates in maternal and cord blood affects birth outcomes in infants.Results from the study involving 65 mother-infant pairs suggest that phthalates have potentially estrogenic effects in female infants and anti-androgenic effects in male infants. Also, higher levels of several different phthalates were associated with smaller head circumference in all infants. “Follow-up of the study participants could help to clarify the long-term impacts of phthalates on infants' growth and health,” said corresponding author Pai-Shan Chen, PhD, of National Taiwan University. Link to Study: https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/etc.5280
The world is throwing away 3 million face masks every minute — and the growing mountain of waste is a toxic time bomb - Single-use masks have been the emblems of the pandemic era. Since the very first lockdowns of 2020, these plastic-based coverings have also been an environmental disaster in the making. The need to stem the tide of the pandemic with masks was critical, but the rapid adoption of face masks also means their waste can now be found everywhere. The global population uses an estimated 129 billion face masks every month, or roughly 3 million masks per minute. Discarded masks have seeped into every corner of our lives, from city sidewalks to solemn niches of the internet. They've washed up on the shores of Hong Kong's deserted Soko Islands and cloaked octopi off the coast of France. Scientists and environmental advocates expressed alarm about this tsunami of waste from the jump. They foresaw the dire ecological ramifications of our mask waste — especially once those masks made their inevitable way into the earth's waterways. Elastic loops pose entanglement hazards for turtles, birds, and other animals. Fish could eat the plastic-fiber ribbons that unfurl from a discarded mask's body. Then, there is the untold menace to human health that would likely present, at the microscopic level, once masks began to disintegrate.Now, two years into the pandemic, governments have had ample time to grapple with this serious conundrum: How do we keep people safe from a highly communicable pathogen without unleashing an environmental catastrophe? But instead of heeding the chorus of expert warnings and pouring money into biodegradable and reusable alternatives, world leaders have ignored the problem. And once the immediate public-health emergency superseded ecological concerns — the heads of Big Plastic made sure it stayed that way."The plastics industry saw COVID as an opportunity," John Hocevar, the oceans campaign director at Greenpeace USA, told me from his office in Washington, D.C. "They worked hard to convince policymakers and the general public that reusables were dirty and dangerous, and that single-use plastic is necessary to keep us safe." Stateside, Big Plastic's PR campaign may have hit its apex in July 2020, when the president and CEO of the Plastics Industry Association testified before Congress to argue that single-use plastic was a pandemic health necessity, stating that "plastic saves lives."The fear-mongering worked. The global consumption of single-use plastics has increased by up to 300% since the pandemic began, according to a 2021 Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development report. The plastic industry's canny COVID strategy also provided a plausible cover for government inertia in funding sustainable solutions to disposable masks.
What Lies Beneath: Vets worry polluted base made them ill | AP News — For nearly 80 years, recruits reporting to central California’s Fort Ord tossed live grenades into the canyons of “Mortar Alley,” sprayed soapy chemicals on burn pits of scrap metal and solvents, poured toxic substances down drains and into leaky tanks they buried underground. When it rained, poisons percolated into aquifers from which they drew drinking water.Through the years, soldiers and civilians who lived at the U.S. Army base didn’t question whether their tap water was safe to drink.But in 1990, four years before it began the process of closing as an active military training base, Fort Ord was added to the Environmental Protection Agency’s list of the most polluted places in the nation. Included in that pollution were dozens of chemicals, some now known to cause cancer, found in the base’s drinking water and soil.Decades later, several Fort Ord veterans who were diagnosed with cancers — especially rare blood disorders — took the question to Facebook: Are there more of us?Soon, the group grew to hundreds of people who had lived or served at Fort Ord and were concerned that their health problems might be tied to the chemicals there.The Associated Press interviewed nearly two dozen of these veterans for this story and identified many more. The AP also reviewed thousands of pages of documents, and interviewed military, medical and environmental scientists.There is rarely a way to directly connect toxic exposure to a specific individual’s medical condition. Indeed, the concentrations of the toxics are tiny, measured in parts per billion or trillion, far below the levels of an immediate poisoning. Local utilities, the Defense Department and some in the Department of Veterans Affairs insist Fort Ord’s water is safe and always has been. But the VA’s own hazardous materials exposure website, along with scientists and doctors, agree that dangers do exist for military personnel exposed to contaminants.The problem is not just at Fort Ord. This is happening all over the U.S. and abroad, almost everywhere the military has set foot, and the federal government is still learning about the extent of both the pollution and the health effects of its toxic legacy.The AP’s review of public documents shows the Army knew that chemicals had been improperly dumped at Fort Ord for decades. Even after the contamination was documented, the Army downplayed the risks.And ailing veterans are being denied benefits based on a 25-year-old health assessment. The CDC’s Agency for Toxic Substances and Disease Registry concluded in 1996 that there were no likely past, present or future risks from exposures at Fort Ord.
Wanted: Staff for EPA's 'monumental' infrastructure job - EPA will embark on a hiring spree for the agency’s infrastructure campaign, having recently secured authority to bring on an additional 500 employees.The infrastructure law, enacted last November, infused the agency with billions of dollars and boosted work on cleaning up toxic waste sites, replacing lead pipes and funding electric school buses. The package, a centerpiece of President Biden’s agenda, has breathed new life into EPA, which saw hundreds of employees leave during the Trump administration, many of them frustrated over the agency’s direction then.Deputy Administrator Janet McCabe in an internal email obtained by E&E News touted EPA’s efforts already underway to execute the infrastructure law. She also laid out how EPA plans to scale up its workforce to handle the increased workload from the spending bill.“While there are many accomplishments to celebrate, this is a monumental undertaking that is asking a lot of our team,” McCabe told EPA employees in the email sent yesterday. She said the agency will listen to its staff on how implementation is faring and on where additional resources are needed.“One of my top priorities is moving quickly to hire 1,000+ highly-qualified team members across the agency,” McCabe said, adding, “We are making good progress with more than 150 new team members already in the pipeline.”Biden’s fiscal 2022 budget proposal includes the goal of hiring an additional 1,000 EPA staffers. Under that plan, the agency workforce would be 15,324 full-time employees, similar to staffing levels last seen at EPA during the tail end of the Obama administration, according to budget documents.In her email, McCabe described other moves by EPA to “accelerate” hiring.The Office of Mission Support, which handles the agency’s human resources functions, has added more than 20 people to speed up hiring and background investigations. And more staff should be coming soon, with EPA being granted various authorities to hire quickly to implement the infrastructure law.
Extreme heat linked to increase in mental health emergency care - During periods of extreme heat, clinicians should expect to see an increase in patients requiring mental health services, according to a new study led by Boston University School of Public Health researchers.Published in the journal JAMA Psychiatry, the study found that days with higher-than-normal temperatures during the summer season in the United States were associated with increased rates of emergency department (ED) visits for any mental health-related condition, particularly substance use, anxiety and stress disorders, and mood disorders.The impact of heat on physical health is well documented, but few studies have examined the effects of extreme heat on mental health. This nationwide study is the largest and most comprehensive analysis of daily ambient temperature and mental health-related ED visits among US adults of all ages. As days of extreme heat are expected to increase due to worsening climate change, the findings fill a critical gap in research and provide evidence-based support for proactive interventions and policy solutions that can reduce heat-related crises. “Emergency department visits represent some of the costliest interactions within the healthcare system,” says study lead author Dr. Amruta Nori-Sarma, assistant professor of environmental health at BUSPH. “Addressing the needs of the most vulnerable to preempt some of these visits can have a positive impact on individual health and costs, as well as preserve healthcare resources for other emergencies.”
Drought, pesticides take a toll on Chile's crucial honeybees A drought has gripped Chile for 13 years and the flowers that fed Carlos Peralta’s honeybees around the central town of Colina have grown increasingly scarce.He said he had lost about 300 hives since the start of November and was left with a choice: try to keep the 900 that remained alive with an artificial nectar or move them to a place where flowers and pollen are more abundant.“If the bees die, we all die. ... The bee is life,” he said, referring to the insects’ key role in pollinating plants both wild and commercial, helping Chile maintain its role as a major fruit exporter. So Peralta decided to move his operations some 600 miles (1,000 kilometers) to the south, to Puerto Montt.Andrés González, a regional expert on biodiversity for the U.N. Food and Agriculture Organization, said a reduced population of pollinating insects “has to do ... with the use of pesticides and fertilizers, monocultures, droughts caused in great part by climate change and by bad management of (water) resources.”Marco Peralta chose to stay in Colina rather than join his brother Carlos in the south, saying he feared losing bees to pesticides if he moved. An FAO study in 2018 found that Chilean imports of pesticides had grown by 460% over the previous two decades — a favor beekeepers blame for part of their losses.“You enter an orchard with your bees and you don’t know if you’ll come out with living bees or dead ones,” said Carlos Peralta. His brother Marco has been feeding his bees with sugar water augmented with other nutrients — though that leaves them unable to produce honey. “The bees grow weak (with sugar water). It’s like eating just pasta every day,” said Mario Flores, a beekeeper in the southern town of Temuco.
Can the Glen Canyon Dam be modified to continue producing power if drought continues? - As the Colorado River basin continues to suffer from the worst twenty-year period of drought in at least 1,200 years, the Bureau of Reclamation is studying potential modifications to Glen Canyon Dam that could allow continued hydropower production despite rapidly dropping reservoir levels. Lake Powell is currently filled to just over a quarter of its potential capacity, causing Glen Canyon Dam to be dangerously close to losing its ability to generate electricity. The intakes for hydropower production can only be used if the reservoir is filled to at least 3,490 feet above sea level, just 38 feet below the current elevation of Lake Powell. This month’s projections from the Bureau of Reclamation show that it is possible Lake Powell — the nation’s second-largest reservoir after Lake Mead — could sink to an elevation that would stop hydropower production before the end of the year, though most projections suggest that is unlikely. The bureau has set aside $2 million in drought funding to study potential modifications to the dam, which could include adding turbines and generators to the bypass tubes that can drain water from the reservoir, even if it drops 100 feet below the existing hydropower intakes. The study will also look at modifying the intakes to draw water from a deeper level in Lake Powell. Nick Williams, the agency’s Upper Colorado Basin power office manager, said in a written statement that the study is still in its early stages and is set to begin in mid-April or early May. It will likely take several months to complete. “We’re entering studies to look at what we can do to ensure we can continue to generate power at the dam and still meet our water obligations under the Colorado River Compact,” Williams said, referring to the agreement between the seven Colorado River basin states of Utah, Wyoming, Colorado, New Mexico, Arizona, Nevada and California that determines how much water needs to be released from Lake Powell each year. “In addition to seeking the best-available science, Reclamation is actively exploring the feasibility of modifications to Glen Canyon Dam to be able to produce power below the current minimum power pool elevation (3,490 feet), and perhaps as close as we can get to dead pool elevation (3,370 feet),” Williams said. “As we’re still in the planning process, we will continue to work with the Basin States, stakeholders, and partners on the best possible outcomes to protect facilities and water level.” With a maximum capacity of 1,320 megawatts, the Glen Canyon Dam produces five billion kilowatt-hours of hydroelectric power annually, enough to power roughly 450,000 homes. Hydropower generated at the dam is sold to 5 million customers in Utah, Wyoming, Colorado, New Mexico, Arizona, Nevada, and Nebraska through the Western Area Power Administration.
Likelihood of extreme autumn fire weather has increased 40% -The likelihood of hot, dry, windy autumn weather that can set the stage for severe fires in California and western Oregon has increased 40% due to human-caused climate change, new computer models show. The study led by Oregon State University's Linnia Hawkins, which covered 2017 and 2018, looked at the role climate change may have played in extreme fire weather conditions that accompanied recent large September, October and November fires in those states. The collaboration that included David Rupp of the Oregon Climate Change Research Institute examined the weather conditions during big fires driven by strong offshore winds such as California's Santa Ana and Diablo winds and western Oregon's East wind. The modeling found that human influences on climate actually reduced the frequency of those winds in the two years studied. But higher temperatures and dryer fuels mean the four study areas were nevertheless much more likely to have extreme autumn fire weather than they would have had without human-caused increases in atmospheric aerosols and carbon dioxide. "Over the last handful of years, California and western Oregon have experienced their largest and most destructive wildfires ever recorded," said Hawkins, a postdoctoral researcher in the OSU College of Forestry. "The rapid and extensive growth of many of the fires was driven by strong, dry, offshore, downslope autumn winds blowing across fuels that had become very parched over the summer and stayed that way into fall." To model a climate absent human activity, the scientists set the atmospheric CO2 and aerosol concentrations to mid-19th century levels. They performed thousands of simulations with present-day CO2 and aerosol concentrations and thousands more simulations with CO2and aerosol concentrations set to pre-industrial levels.The researchers then compared the likelihood of extreme autumn fire weather conditions—defined as conditions that, absent human influence, would occur once every 20 years—between the two ensembles of simulations."We found that when CO2 and aerosols from human activity were included, the chance of extreme conditions was 40% higher in those areas of California and Oregon where recent autumn fires have occurred," Hawkins said. "The jump was mainly because of an increase in temperature and fuel aridity and not an increase in wind speeds. In fact, we found anthropogenic climate changeslightly decreased the frequency of strong, dry, offshore winds."
Climate Change Could Increase Risk of Wildfires 50% by Century's End - A landmark United Nations report has concluded that the risk of devastating wildfires around the world will surge in coming decades as climate change further intensifies what the report described as a “global wildfire crisis.”The scientific assessment is the first by the organization’s environmental authority to evaluate wildfire risks worldwide. It was inspired by a string of deadly blazes around the globe in recent years, burning the American West, vast stretches ofAustralia and even the Arctic.The images from those fires — cities glowing under orange skies, smoke billowing around tourist havens and heritage sites, woodland animals badly injured and killed — have become grim icons of this era of unsettled relations between humankind and nature.“The heating of the planet is turning landscapes into tinderboxes,” said the report, which was published on Wednesday by the United Nations Environment Program.The report, produced by more than 50 researchers from six continents, estimated that the risk worldwide of highly devastating fires could increase by up to 57 percent by the end of the century, primarily because of climate change. The risks will not be distributed equally: Some regions are likely to see more fire activity, while others may experience less.It is a stark warning about the increased heat and dryness that human-caused global warming is bringing about. Nations and localities need to prepare better for the dangers, the report’s authors said. “There isn’t the right attention to fire from governments,” . More societies worldwide are learning the value of prescribed burns and other methods of preventing wildfires from raging out of control, she said. Yet public spending in developed nations is still heavily skewed toward firefighting instead of forest management. In some regions with long histories of brush fires, such as eastern Australia and the western United States and Canada, they have become more intense over the last decade and are ravaging larger areas, the report found. But uncontrolled burning is also starting to occur in places where it had not been common before, such as Russia, northern India and Tibet. In parts of the savannas of sub-Saharan Africa, by contrast, fire activity has declined over the past two decades, partly because drought has killed off more grass.
Record number of power outages as Storm Eunice brings extremely strong winds to U.K. - Storm Eunice passed over Ireland and U.K. on Friday and Saturday, February 18 and 19, 2022, before continuing over northern France, Benelux, Denmark, Germany, Poland, and other northern European countries. Eunice sparked the first-ever "red" weather warning for London on Friday. As of Saturday night, Eunice was blamed for the deaths of 16 people. It was one of the most powerful storms in Europe since the "Great Storm" hit Britain and northern France in 1987.Eunice brought extremely strong winds to the United Kingdom, causing widespread damage and leaving a record 1.4 million homes without power. Western Power Distribution said the South West saw the most widespread power cut ever recorded. The company said power had been restored to nearly 461 000 of its customers, and work was continuing to restore supply to the remaining 60 000.1 Train operators in Britain urged people not to travel after most of the network was shut down when Eunice brought the strongest wind gust ever recorded in England - 195 km/h (122 mph) at The Needles on the Isle of Wight.2 "This is a particularly exposed station and is not representative of much of the wind seen elsewhere in the U.K.," meteorologists at the UK Met Office said. "This provisionally represents an England national record for highest one-off wind gust recorded. Elsewhere, the highest wind gusts for Storm Eunice have been provisionally reported as between 130 and 145 km/h (80 mph - 90 mph)."In Brentwood, east of London, a 400-year-old tree crashed into a house where Sven Good was working from home, as millions of other Britons heeded government advice to stay indoors.Eunice paralyzed the train network in the Netherlands, with no Eurostar and Thalys international services running from Britain and France after damage to overhead power lines. France and Ireland were also grappling with rail disruption and power cuts, and Germany's rail operator Deutsche Bahn said more than 1 000 km (620 miles) of track had suffered damage.
Emnati makes landfall over Madagascar as 4th tropical cyclone in a month (satellite video)Tropical Cyclone "Emnati" made landfall over southern Madagascar on February 22, 2022, with winds up to 135 km/h (84 mph), making it a Category 1 hurricane equivalent on the Saffir-Simpson scale. Emnati is the 5th named storm of the 2021/22 Southwest Indian Ocean cyclone season and the 4th to make landfall in Madagascar.Emnati made landfall on the southeastern side of Madagascar, in the same region where Batsirai caused widespread damage and left at least 124 people dead at the beginning of February 2022. Emnati was not as powerful as Batsirai and there are currently no early reports of damage or casualties. This might change, however, as the day progresses.This is now the fourth tropical cyclone to make landfall in Madagascar within one month, following Tropical Cyclone "Ana" on January 22, Batsirai on February 5, and Dumako on February 15.Ana left at least 88 people dead in Madagascar, Malawi and Mozambique, of which at least 48 in Madagascar (coupled with an inter-tropical convergence zone that impacted the country January 17).Batsirai is this year's deadliest cyclone in the basin, with at least 124 people killed in Madagascar, 124 000 homes damaged or destroyed and 30 000 displaced people.Dumako left at least 14 people dead and displaced more than 4 300.A spokeswoman at the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), Clare Nullis, said it was rare to have groups of cyclones in the same area in close succession.1"Ocean heat is one of the factors in rapid intensification of cyclones," she told Reuters, adding that right now there was no evidence of an increase in the overall number of tropical cyclones.
Rescue effort starts as Cyclone Emnati lashes Madagascar - Rescuers in Madagascar on Wednesday began to assess the damage caused by Cyclone Emnati, which overnight lashed the island nation still reeling from the impact of another cyclone earlier this month. Faly Aritiana Fabien, a senior official at Madagascar's National Risk Management Office (BNGRC), told AFP no human casualties had been reported but said it was important to "remain cautious" less than 24 hours after Emnati's arrival. Houses were submerged in brown water, debris and uprooted trees, an AFP correspondent saw, as the weather conditions prevented rescuers from carrying out thorough searches in the worst-affected areas in the south and southeast. Emnati "made landfall around 2300 GMT just north of the southeastern district of Manakara", Fabien had earlier told AFP. The storm, which passed just north of the Indian Ocean islands of Mauritius and Reunion, had weakened slightly by the time it reached the eastern coast of Madagascar. But it was still packing winds of around 100 kilometres per hour (62 miles per hour) and gusts of 140 kph, according to Meteo-France. Another storm, Cyclone Batsirai, struck the island on February 5, affecting some 270,000 people and claiming 121 lives. At the same time, some 21,000 people remain displaced from when Tropical Storm Ana struck in late January. Another 5,000 were affected last week by Tropical Storm Dumako. More than 37,000 people have been moved to emergency shelters as a precautionary measure. One of the poorest countries in the world, Madagascar's southern region has been ravaged by drought. The UN says it is the worst in 40 years and blames climate change for the crisis.
Petropolis landslide death toll rises to 152, more than 120 still missing, Brazil - The number of fatalities caused by floods and landslides in the city of Petropolis, Brazil since February 15, 2022, has risen to 152 on February 20, 2022.More than 120 people are still missing, at least 200 have been injured and 856 displaced.Local authorities registered 755 landslide events in the area.Rescue workers and residents are still digging through mountains of mud and rubble in the city, but it is unclear how high the steadily rising death toll will go as authorities said it's unlikely any more survivors will be found beneath the wreckage.1Severe storms continued battering the country over that past couple of days, with the neighboring Espirito Santo the worst affected on February 20. Authorities there reported two fatalities, 1 200 forced to evacuate and 43 homes destroyed. Severe weather has claimed the lives of at least 219 people in Brazil since December 2021.
At least 24 dead or missing after heavy rains hit Tarija, Bolivia - Heavy rains affecting the Tarija department of southeastern Bolivia over the past couple of days caused severe flash floods in which at least 4 people lost their lives and 20 remain missing. Heavy rains started falling late February 20, causing the Itayuro stream in the municipality of Entre Rios, Burdett O'Connor Province in Tarija to overflow, sending torrents of water, mud, and debris down a narrow ravine. Floodwaters were as deep as 2 m (6.5 feet) in places, destroying homes and crops, and killing livestock in the Guarani communities of Tomatirenda, Filadelfia, Palmarito, Ñaurenda, Saladito de Ñaurenda, Moko Mokal, Itayuru, and Timboy. Power and water infrastructure in the region have been damaged as well as 90% of the roads, Civil Defence said. The country's Red Cross said 40 people were injured, 23 homes destroyed and another 80 damaged. At least 4 people have been killed while 20 others remain missing. Heavy rains on February 22 hindered search and rescue operations as well as delivery of supply aid. Some supplies reached the community of Timboy but it was only a small amount due to poor conditions of roads and heavy rains. At the instruction of Governor Oscar Montes, a team of heavy machinery is clearing the roads of the municipality of Entre RÃos to allow the passage of water tanks to the affected communities. All communities from Timboy upwards are without drinking water
Major floods as torrential rainfall continues falling over Queensland, Australia - A slow-moving pressure system is producing very heavy rains in parts of Queensland, Australia, with some areas receiving more than 700 mm (27 inches) over the past 3 of days. Widespread floods have reached major levels in parts of the state and have so far claimed at least 3 lives. This weather event is one of the most severe systems to impact Queensland in recent years and the rain will continue falling through the day and into the weekend, producing more life-threatening flash flooding. "A dangerous flood situation is evolving through parts of southeast Queensland, and a Severe Weather Warning is current, extending from the Wide Bay all the way down to the New South Wales border, and that includes areas like Gympie, the Sunshine Coast, and also inland communities toward Toowoomba," said BOM meteorologist Dean Narramore on February 25, 2022. "This warning will continue to be updated during the day, so please stay up to date with the latest versions of this warning." "We've seen widespread rainfall continue through parts of the Wide Bay and southeast coast last night, but as of right now, our two areas of concern are the convergence zone through the Wide Bay and Burnett area, and unfortunately right over the Mary River catchment. "The other area that we're watching is a heavy rain band streaming in from the northeast toward the Scenic Rim and the Lockyer Valley. That includes places like Toowoomba, where we've seen falls in excess of 100 mm (3.9 inches)." Even heavier rains were seen overnight Friday. The two areas that saw the heaviest falls were parts of the Western Darling Downs where widespread falls of 50 to 150 mm (2 - 6 inches) were registered, causing some flood issues. "What was really concerning was toward the southwest of the Bundaberg area, where we saw isolated falls in excess of 450 mm (17.7 inches), with 292 mm (11.5 inches) falling in just two hours," Narramore said, adding that this kind of rainfall is enough to lead to devastating and possibly life-threatening flash flooding. "We can see inundations of homes, properties and businesses and also damage to any agricultural areas and fences near or on any rivers or creeks in this part of the world," Narramore said. That kind of rainfall is starting to move toward southeastern parts of Queensland. "While we're not talking 400s of mm (15.7 inches), we're still talking widespread 50 to 150 mm (2 - 6 inches) with heavier isolated fall on top of that." Only in the last couple of hours we've already seen falls of 20 to 40 mm (0.8 - 1.6 inches). Because of all this rainfall, numerous Flood Watches and Warnings are in effect. A major Flood Warning is in effect for the Mary River, so communities on or near the Mary River catchment need to be concerned. Particularly those around the Gympie and Maryborough area. Numerous Moderate Flood Warnings are in effect further south. There is also a Major Flood Warning for the Logan River, but these are likely to possibly increase as the day progresses and rain continues to fall.
Lake Michigan ice coverage may be nearing its peak as lake levels continue to drop - Ice coverage may be nearing its peak throughout the Great Lakes in a season that has trended closer to average than originally forecast, as Lake Michigan's water levels are expected to continue their decline well below the string of monthly record highs reached a few years ago. Lake Michigan's ice cover hit 37% last week, the most yet in the season, according to data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory, which records and models ice coverage. Ice cover increased in the new year as chilly temperatures froze the Great Lakes region. In recent days, the lakes have been about a quarter to more than 40% covered, sticking close to the long-term average for early February, according to data going back to 1973. Lake Superior's coverage has largely been below average, while Lake Erie has seen almost full surface coverage. In Lake Michigan, ice has appeared in the form of pancakes, balls and, in some northern fishing locations, chunks more than a foot thick. February coverage has been as low as 13% and recently expanded to more than a third of the surface. "We're still trending right around that average line," said James Kessler, physical scientist with NOAA's Great Lakes Environmental Research Lab. "There's still some time to reach higher ice cover." But whether ice or open water, forecasters continue to urge caution near the lakefront, where a man recently walked out on to the lake without realizing he was on ice.
Global warming is amplifying our water cycle—and it's happening much faster than we expected -- The global water cycle—that is, the constant movement of freshwater between the clouds, land and the ocean—plays an important role in our daily lives. This delicate system transports water from the ocean to the land, helping to make our environment habitable and soil fertile. But rising global temperatures have been making this system more extreme: water is moving away from dry regions towards wet regions, causing droughts to worsen in parts of the globe, while intensifying rainfall events and flooding in others. In other words, wet areas are getting wetter, and dry areas are getting drier. Up until now, changes to the cycle have been difficult to directly observe, with around 80 percent of global rainfall and evaporation happening over the ocean. But a new UNSW-led study, published today in Nature, has used changing patterns of salt in the ocean to estimate how much ocean freshwater has moved from the equator to the poles since 1970. The findings show that between two and four times more freshwater has moved than climate models anticipated—giving us insights about how the global water cycle is amplifying as a whole. "We already knew from previous work that the global water cycle was intensifying,""We just didn't know by how much. "The movement of freshwater from warm to cold areas forms the lion's share of water transport. Our findings paint a picture of the larger changes happening in the global water cycle." But instead of focusing on direct rainfall observations—which can be hard to measure across the ocean—they focused on a more unusual aspect: how salty the water was in each ocean area. "In warmer regions, evaporation removes fresh water from the ocean leaving salt behind, making the ocean saltier," says co-author Jan Zika, an associate professor in the UNSW School of Mathematics and Statistics. "The water cycle takes that fresh water to colder regions where it falls as rain, diluting the ocean and making it less salty." In other words, the water cycle leaves a signature on the ocean salt pattern—and by measuring these patterns, researchers can trace how the cycle changes over time. The team estimate that between 1970 and 2014, an extra 46,000-77,000 cubic kilometers of freshwater was transported from the equator to the poles than expected—that's around 18-30 centimeters of freshwater from tropical and sub-tropical regions, or roughly 123 times the water in Sydney Harbour.
Research shows jet stream is moving northwards, winter jet stream increased by 8% - New research led by the National Oceanography Centre (NOC) and ICARUS presented seasonal to decadal variations in Northern Hemisphere jet stream latitude and speed over land (Eurasia, North America) and oceanic (North Atlantic, North Pacific) regions for the period 1871 - 2011 from the Twentieth Century Reanalysis dataset. Jet streams are fast, narrow air bands, which flow around the globe in both hemispheres at around 10 km (6.2 miles) above the surface. The flow is predominantly zonal from west to east with jet speeds reaching 45 to 70 ms−1 and possibly higher in winter. Their variations have a significant impact on storm activity and temperature patterns across the northern hemisphere, and accordingly, impact the environment and society. The study found significant regional differences on seasonal to decadal timescales. Seasonally, the jet latitude range is lower over the oceans compared to land, reduced from 20° over Eurasia to 10° over the North Atlantic where the ocean meridional heat transport is greatest. The mean jet latitude range is at a minimum in winter (DJF), particularly along the western boundary of the North Pacific and North Atlantic, where the land-sea contrast and sea surface temperature gradients are strongest. The 141-year trends in jet latitude and speed show differences on a regional basis. The North Atlantic has significantly increasing jet latitude trends in all seasons, up to 3° in winter. Eurasia has significant increasing trends in winter and summer, however, no increase is seen across the North Pacific or North America. Jet speed shows significant increases evident in winter (up to 4.7 ms−1), spring and autumn over the North Atlantic, Eurasia and North America however, over the North Pacific no increase is observed. Long-term trends are generally overlaid by multidecadal variability, particularly evident in the North Pacific, where 20-year variability in jet latitude and jet speed are seen, associated with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation which explains 50% of the winter variance in jet latitude since 1940. The results highlight that northern hemisphere jet variability and trends differ on a regional basis (North Atlantic, North Pacific, Eurasia and North America) on seasonal to decadal timescales, suggesting that different mechanisms are influencing the jet latitude and speed.
Strong eruption at Etna, Aviation Color Code raised to Red, Italy (videos) A new paroxysmal eruptive episode started at Etna volcano, Italy at 11:27 UTC on February 21, 2022. This is the second paroxysm at Etna in 2022.Strong strombolian activity, with ash cloud moving toward SE started at the volcano at 11:15 UTC today, forcing Etna Volcano Observatory to raise the Aviation Color Code to Red. The activity further increased at 11:27 UTC with lava fountains and volcanic ash cloud reaching a height of about 10 km (32 800 feet) above sea level and moving SE.1 Strombolian activity at Etna's Southeast Crater reached full paroxysmal phase -- the first of the year -- on February 10, 2022, with lava fountains 500 - 600 m (1 600 - 2 000 feet) tall, lava flows to southwest and southeast, and eruptive column up to 10 km (32 800 feet) above sea level. The Aviation Color Code was raised from Yellow to Orange at 04:16 and to Red at 18:59 UTC.2 While Etna is not famous for producing pyroclastic flow, three streams were recorded during that eruption -- at 20:40, 21:19 and 21:26 UTC. The first two streams traveled a few hundred meters toward Valle del Bove while the third headed toward the south, also for a few hundred meters.
New NOAA report finds sea level is rising fast - In North Carolina, the worries about climate change often focus on more frequent storms with heavier rainfall, but a new federal report points to an equally potent danger—the seeping effect of sea level rise. The report released by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Association (NOAA) as part of a multi-agency project shows that sea levels along U.S. coastlines will rise, on average, by as much as a foot over the next 30 years—equal to the rise measured over the last century. Rick Luettich, a UNC marine science professor who heads the Center for Natural Hazards Resilience, said the projection for 2050 "isn't radically different than it was 10 years ago," but "there is a lot of clarity to these numbers now." That means sea level change isn't a case of scientists speculating on what might happen given various scenarios. The change is here and accelerating. "This new report says this is real now and it's going to be significant much earlier than 2100," said Luettich. The most noticeable effect will be more coastal flooding, even without storms. NOAA said in a summary of the report's findings: "Sea level rise will create a profound shift in coastal flooding over the next 30 years by causing tide and storm surge heights to increase and reach further inland. By 2050, 'moderate' (typically damaging) flooding is expected to occur, on average, more than 10 times as often as it does today, and can be intensified by local factors." Flooding related to sea level rise will be more extensive in North Carolina because of its low coastal plain. As seawater seeps further inland, it will render land unusable for agriculture, impair fresh water sources and disrupt the effectiveness of septic systems. "Salt water intrusion is a major concern for the viability of coastal areas for agriculture and septic function is much less viable if the water table rises," Luettich said. "That's the hidden consequence."
Accelerating melt rate makes Greenland Ice Sheet world's largest 'dam' -- Researchers have observed extremely high rates of melting at the bottom of the Greenland Ice Sheet, caused by huge quantities of meltwater falling from the surface to the base. As the meltwater falls, energy is converted into heat in a process like the hydroelectric power generated by large dams. An international team of scientists, led by the University of Cambridge, found that the effect of meltwater descending from the surface of the ice sheet to the bed—a kilometer or more below—is by far the largest heat source beneath the world's second-largest ice sheet, leading to phenomenally high rates of melting at its base. The lubricating effect of meltwater has a strong effect on the movement of glaciers and the quantity of ice discharged into the ocean, but directly measuring conditions beneath a kilometer of ice is a challenge, especially in Greenland where glaciers are among the world's fastest moving. This lack of direct measurements makes it difficult to understand the dynamic behavior of the Greenland Ice Sheet and predict future changes. With ice losses tied to both melting and discharge, the Greenland Ice Sheet is now the largest single contributor to global sea level rise. Now, in a study published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, the Cambridge-led team has found that the gravitational energy of meltwater forming at the surface is converted to heat when it is transferred to the base through large cracks in the ice. Each summer, thousands of meltwater lakes and streams form on the surface of the Greenland Ice Sheet as temperatures rise and daily sunlight increases. Many of these lakes quickly drain to the bottom of the ice sheet, falling through cracks and large fractures which form in the ice. With a continued supply of water from streams and rivers, connections between surface and bed often remain open. "When studying basal melting of ice sheets and glaciers, we look at sources of heat like friction, geothermal energy, latent heat released where water freezes and heat losses into the ice above," said Christoffersen. "But what we hadn't really looked at was the heat generated by the draining meltwater itself. There's a lot of gravitational energy stored in the water that forms on the surface and when it falls, the energy has to go somewhere."The researchers calculated that as much as 82 million cubic meters of meltwater was transferred to the bed of Store Glacier every day during the summer of 2014. They estimate the power produced by the falling water during peak melt periods was comparable to the power produced by the Three Gorges Dam in China, the world's largest hydroelectric power station. With a melt area that expands to nearly a million square kilometers at the height of summer, the Greenland Ice Sheet produces more hydropower than the world's ten largesthydroelectric power stations combined.
What the Latest Science Says About Antarctica and Sea-Level Rise - More than 97% of Antarctica is covered in ice. With a depth of up to three miles, the continent’s 6 million cubic miles of ice contain 70% of Earth’s fresh water. If all of that ice melted, the world’s oceans would rise by 200 feet (61 meters), enough to inundate Tokyo, New York City, Shanghai, and other cities. How much the Earth’s average temperature rises is one of the main factors that will determine how Antarctic melting plays out. The climate has already warmed by roughly 1 degree Celsius (1.8 degrees Fahrenheit) since the late 1800s. A 2021 study published in the journal Nature found that ice loss would likely continue at a pace similar to current patterns as long as the world does not rise more than 2 degrees Celsius (3.6 F) above pre-industrial levels. However, if the temperature rises 3 degrees Celsius (5.4 F) or more, the paper’s authors found the rate of loss would rise to “an order of magnitude faster than today.” The fate of Antarctica’s massive ice shelves will also play a role in determining future sea-level rise. These shelves of ice jut out from Antarctica’s coastline, floating into the ocean. Importantly, they hold back the enormous glaciers that flow from the continent’s massive interior ice sheets toward the ocean. If the Earth’s temperature were to rise to 4 degrees Celsius (7.2 F) above pre-industrial levels, a third of Antarctica’s ice shelves could become destabilized and would be at risk of collapse, according to an April 2021 paper in Geophysical Research Letters. About 193,000 square miles (500,000 square kilometers) of these ice shelves — an area slightly smaller than California and South Carolina combined — could fail. The effect of ice shelf collapse, the researchers said, would be akin to pulling a cork out of a large bottle, speeding the movement of ice into the ocean. Some ice shelves are already melting rapidly. The George VI Ice Shelf is the second-largest ice shelf on the Antarctic Peninsula, the northernmost region of mainland Antarctica. Scientists reported that 2019-2020 was a record-breaking melt year, with “the most widespread melt” they’d seen there, though they did note they had seen longer melting seasons for the peninsula as a whole before. Perhaps the most talked-about Antarctic ice story of 2021 was the potential fate of Thwaites Glacier, popularly dubbed the “Doomsday Glacier.” This massive body of ice, larger than the state of Florida, is located on the West Antarctic Ice Sheet. In December 2021, scientists announced that cracks in the Thwaites Eastern Ice Shelf signaled that this ice shelf — which is holding back large parts of the Thwaites Glacier — could fail in as soon as five years. Without the ice shelf to stabilize it, the glacier could speed up its flow into the ocean. If the entire glacier melted, sea levels around the world would eventually rise about 25 inches (63.5 centimeters).
Soot accelerates climate-driven melt in Arctic and Antarctic polar regions - Soot pollution is accelerating climate-driven melting in Antarctica, a new study suggests, raising questions about how to protect the delicate continent from the increasing number of humans who want to visit. Researchers estimate that soot, or black carbon, pollution in the most popular and accessible part of Antarctica is causing an extra inch of snowpack shrinkage every year. The number of tourists visiting each year has ballooned from fewer than 10,000 in the early 1990s to nearly 75,000 people during the austral summer season that began in 2019, according to the International Association of Antarctica Tour Operators. "It really makes us question, is our presence really needed?" says Alia Khan, a glaciologist at Western Washington University and one of the authors of the new study, which was published in the journal Nature Communications. "We have quite a large black carbon footprint in Antarctica, which is enhancing snow and ice melt." Black carbon is the leftover junk from burning plants or fossil fuels. Soot in Antarctica comes primarily from the exhaust of cruise ships, vehicles, airplanes and electrical generators, although some pollution travels on the wind from other parts of the globe. The dark particles coat white snow and soak up heat from the sun the way a black T-shirt does on a warm day. The blanket of dark bits exacerbates melting that was already happening more quickly because of global warming. When snow and ice are pristine, they reflect an enormous amount of sunlight before it can turn into heat. "These are the mirrors on our planet," says Sonia Nagorski, a scientist at the University of Alaska Southeast who was not involved in the new study. When those mirrors are covered in a film of dark bits, they are less reflective. That means more heat is trapped on Earth, accelerating melting and contributing to global warming. Soot is also a huge problem at the other pole. Black carbon pollution has plagued Arctic communities for decades. Oil and gas operations in Alaska, Canada and Arctic Russia and Europe release enormous amounts of pollution compared to tourists and researchers. As sea ice melts, there is also more air pollution from commercial shipping in the region. And massive climate-driven wildfires spread soot across huge swaths of the Arctic each summer. All that soot is melting snow and ice, which then drives sea level rise. And the soot itself pollutes the local air and water.
Each Antarctic tourist effectively melts 83 metric tons of snow - Every summer, as the sea ice surrounding Antarctica retreats, tens of thousands of tourists and scientists flock to the landmass by boat and plane. The remote continent is becoming increasingly accessible—during the 2019-20 season, the number of sightseeing visitors reached 74,000, with the vast majority traveling by ship. Scientific activities on the continent are also significant, with more than 70 research stations collectively housingthousands of researchers. This activity, which is projected to increase in future, leaves a physical footprint with lasting consequences. In seeking to study or marvel at one of the last (nearly) undisturbed places on earth, humans are having a growing impact that can be measured and quantified.Under the Antarctic Treaty, tourist and scientific operators are required to remove waste from the continent. Trash and human waste are flown or shipped off the continent for disposal at warmer latitudes. But some forms of waste are not so easily squirreled off the continent. All activity in Antarctica—be it powered drills for scientific ice coring or vehicles for transport—burns fuel. As we burn fuel to keep warm, or to move around, our activities release microscopic particles of "black carbon" (smoke and soot).Elsewhere in the world, black carbon is released in enormous quantities by forest fires and human activity. It travels great distances—the soot from the Australian bushfires in 2019-20 traveled around the world. Yet in Antarctica, which is isolated from the rest of the world by a strong "barrier" of circumpolar winds, the sources of black carbon are typically more local.New research in the journal Nature Communications has extensively quantified the levels of black carbon in the snow near human settlements. Scientists first collected samples from 28 locations across a 2,000km stretch of the most-traveled section of Antarctica, stretching from the Antarctic Peninsula to the interior of the West Antarctic ice sheet.By analyzing the quantity and type of light-absorbing particles in snow samples, the researchers document how soot emitted by humans is affecting the properties of Antarctic snow near high-traffic areas.The results are sobering. In affected areas near human settlements on the Antarctic Peninsula, human-produced black carbon may be causing surface snow to melt by up to 23mm every summer. When examining tourist activities specifically, the authors calculate that each visitor between 2016 and 2020 was effectively melting around 83 metric tons of snow, due largely to emissions from cruise ships.
Russia allows methane leaks at planet’s peril -On the morning of Friday, June 4, an underground gas pipeline running through the ancient state of Tatarstan sprang a leak. And not a small one. In a different era, the massive leak might have gone unnoticed. But hovering 520 miles above the Earth, a European Space Agency satellite was keeping watch. The four-year-old Copernicus Sentinel-5P, which orbits the planet 14 times a day, looks for traces of methane and other gases. At 11:01 a.m. in Moscow, the satellite spotted a methane leak on the edge of its field of vision. On its next pass, 1 hour and 40 minutes later, the sensor captured an even larger view of the leak. Crews from the natural gas giant Gazprom hurried to repair a defect in the steel pipeline and stem the rush of methane — an invisible but powerful greenhouse gas — which was escaping into the atmosphere at a breakneck rate of approximately 395 metric tons an hour. Two weeks later, after inquiries from a geoanalytical firm called Kayrros and from journalists, Gazprom acknowledged the colossal methane release, though the energy company remained secretive, declining to disclose the exact location of the leak. But a Washington Post photographer, using satellite imagery and tracking GPS coordinates, found a likely spot an hour’s walk from the nearest public roadway, 490 miles east of Moscow. There he saw a deep gash and tire tracks over an area half a football field in size, flanked by yellow signs warning of underground pipelines between stands of trees. Image without caption The episode reflects a fundamental shift in climate politics. Many countries and companies have long misrepresented or simply miscounted how much fossil fuel-based methane they have let escape into the air. Now, new satellites devoted to locating and measuring greenhouse gases are orbiting Earth, with more on the way. These sentinels in the sky are auguring an era of data transparency as their patrons seek to safeguard the planet by closing the gap between the amount of methane that scientists know is in the atmosphere versus what is reported from the ground — industry by industry, pipeline by pipeline, leak by leak. Satellites can provide real time evidence of massive, unreported methane leaks — and who is responsible for them. That information can help officials hold the polluting companies accountable or expose governments that hide or ignore dangerous emissions that are warming the world.
Oil and gas facilities could profit from plugging methane leaks, IEA says -Plugging methane from leaky oil and gas facilities would be free of cost almost everywhere in the world, and in many cases would produce a significant profit, at today’s soaring gas prices, the International Energy Agency has found, suggesting that governments have few excuses for not taking action to curb emissions of the powerful greenhouse gas.Governments have been underreporting their emissions of methane to a dramatic extent, and those emissions are still rising fast, according to theGlobal Methane Tracker report from the IEA published on Wednesday. Using satellites and other new data, the energy watchdog found emissions were about 70% higher than national governments had suggested, showing the need for far greater monitoring, as well as efforts to staunch leaks.Fatih Birol, executive director of the IEA, a leading authority on energy economics, said: “At today’s elevated gas prices, nearly all of the emissions [of methane] from oil and gas operations worldwide could be avoided at no net cost. The IEA has been a longstanding champion of stronger action to cut methane emissions. A vital part of those efforts is transparency on the size and location of emissions, which is why the massive underreporting revealed by our Global Methane Tracker is so alarming.”Russia is one of the biggest sources of methane emissions from its vast oil and gas operations, but few efforts are made there to control the leaks. According to the IEA, Turkmenistan and Texas are also leading sources of leaks.Methane is the main component of natural gas, used for fuel, and also one of the most powerful greenhouse gases, responsible for as much as 30% of the rise in global temperatures to date. About 40% of methane emissions from human activity come from the energy sector, mostly from leaky oil and gas wells and pipelines, or fracking operations, but in many countries few attempts are made to control emissions.Last year, leaks from fossil fuel operations amounted to as much gas as Europe burns for power in a year. If that methane had been captured and used, the current gas crisis and soaring prices could have been largely avoided, the IEA said.
Gas stoves might pose risks to both our planet and health -via Johns Hopkins - In more than 40 million American kitchens, cooking takes place through instantaneous fire—the glowing blue flame of a gas stove. Although it has served as a mainstay appliance for more than a century, the gas stove is now becoming a policy flashpoint as concerns rise over its environmental and health impacts.Recently, a study from Stanford University presented eye-opening findings on the emissions the appliances release, estimating that all the gas stoves in the U.S. may pose an annual climate impact equal to that of 500,000 cars. The new research comes as dozens of U.S. cities have taken measures to ban gas appliances from new construction and further cut off reliance on fossil fuels. The movement started in Berkeley, California, in 2019, and last month New York City became the largest municipality in the country to do so. Medical experts have also become increasingly outspoken in their warnings about indoor air pollution from gas stoves, which are known to exacerbate and trigger symptoms of asthma and other respiratory issues.With the prevalence of gas stoves across the U.S., and the costs and infeasibility of replacing them, it's unlikely to see the appliances disappear anytime soon. The politics are also fraught, with challenges from the fossil fuel industry—and corresponding laws enacted by at least 20 states, including Arizona, Georgia, Ohio, and Texas, to prevent their cities from restricting gas use.From the standpoint of climate change, natural gas is troublesome. A nonrenewable fossil fuel culled from the earth by drilling and hydraulic fracking, natural gas emits two planet-warming greenhouse gases: carbon dioxide (from burning the gas), and methane (from gas leaks). Of the two, methane dissipates more quickly but is 80 times more potent over 20 years, according to the Stanford study. For cities and states that have set targets for net-zero greenhouse gas emissions, "burning natural gas is incompatible with those goals," says Scot Miller, a Johns Hopkins assistant professor of environmental health and engineering who studies greenhouse gases and air pollutants. In general, climate-friendly policies emphasize shifting away from burning fossil fuels that produce atmosphere-eroding greenhouse gases and, instead, increasing reliance on electricity that can be powered by renewable sources such as solar and wind. The Biden administration's climate plan calls for government incentives to induce people to switch from gas in their homes to all-electric.
EPA: Power plant emissions spiked last year - Power plant emissions of sulfur dioxide, carbon dioxide and other common pollutants simultaneously surged last year, interrupting a long-term downward trend and underscoring the challenge to the Biden administration’s climate goals, according to EPA data released today.The numbers, based on data from plants in the Lower 48 contiguous states, show that carbon dioxide releases climbed 7 percent in comparison with 2020, while releases of smog-forming nitrogen oxides were up 6 percent. More pronounced were the increases in emissions of mercury and sulfur dioxide, pollutants respectively tied to brain damage in unborn children and acid rain formation. Power industry releases of mercury rose 13 percent; sulfur dioxide emissions jumped 20 percent.In a news release, EPA officials noted that last year’s totals were still below the comparable 2019 numbers and attributed the increases to a rebound in electricity demand from the depths of the Covid-19 pandemic and higher natural gas prices that led to an increase in coal-fired generation.But in a statement, agency Administrator Michael Regan acknowledged that the new data highlighted the importance of “building and supporting a cleaner power sector.” Despite “great progress” in reducing pollution over the last few decades, he said, “it’s clear our work is far from done, as we deliver on our commitment to protect the health of everyone and especially those most vulnerable among us.”At the Rhodium Group, a private research firm, Senior Analyst Ben King said that the emissions rebound wasn’t a huge surprise, given the increase in power demand and the fact that higher gas prices made it less attractive as an alternative to coal. “That said,” he added, “these figures show that the U.S. is not currently on track to meet its Paris Agreement goals” for reducing greenhouse gas emissions. For the United States to have any hope of meeting its 2030 target, action is needed both from Congress and EPA, he said.
Vigo energy project hits setbacks in Legislature - For the second year, Wabash Valley Resources has sought the approval of state legislators to grant it the ability to inject carbon dioxide deep underground near West Terre Haute without the concern of liability lawsuits or need to compensate property owners. Two bills — Senate Bill 265 and House Bill 1249 that deal with carbon sequestration — have gone through the Indiana General Assembly, each either defeated or delayed in the opposite chamber. A third bill — House Bill 1209 — is backed by the Indiana Farm Bureau, which has been a strong opponent of the two other bills, along with the Citizens Action Coalition of Indiana. In a 53-43 vote Monday, the Indiana House of Representatives defeated Senate Bill 265, which would have prevented a person from making a lawsuit claim against Wabash Valley Resources unless the person can prove “actual interference with the reasonable use of the person’s property; or direct physical injury to a person, an animal, or tangible property.”A related bill, House Bill 1249, which passed the House, was assigned to a committee in the Senate and is eligible to go before the Senate Appropriations Committee this week.That bill states that “a person asserting a carbon sequestration claim may not recover damages for the diminution of the value of the person’s real property due solely to any perceived risk associated with the operation of the carbon sequestration pilot project,” according to the bill.Kerwin Olson, executive director of the Citizens Action Coalition, said the Senate bill “would have given Wabash Valley Resources the right condemn people’s private property without any compensation, but also without any notification.“Furthermore, it would have provided them almost blanket immunity from any of the potential consequences of storing the supercritical CO2 [carbon dioxide] whether that be contaminating water sources or migrating to the surface causing some sort of damage” to cattle or people, he said. “It was a bad bill and we were glad to see it go down,” he said.
Researchers Say Science Skewed by Racism is Increasing the Threat of Global Warming to People of Color - Black, Brown and Indigenous people have been systematically excluded from earth sciences, magnifying their exposure to the most severe impacts of climate change, said Asmeret Asefaw Berhe, lead author of a recent commentary in the journal Nature Geosciences. That adds to the burden of global warming that people of color already bear more heavily than other populations because the world for centuries has been “geographically delineated based on racism, and resultant slavery and colonialism,” Berhe said. The article was the latest in a series of academic papers and articles that describe the consequences of discrimination in the sciences, but many scientists hope that it won’t be the last. Berhe, a University of California, Merced soil scientist and environmental justice advocate, said that, because of structural racism, “there aren’t nearly enough conversations about how the worst impacts of climate change are affecting Black and Brown people disproportionately.” Most of the nearly 1 billion people worldwide facing an increased threat of food insecurity and displacement from global warming are Black and Brown, and their stories aren’t being told in part because voices from communities of color and Indigenous populations have been systematically excluded from scientific fields critical to fully understanding and explaining climate impacts, she said.The loss of women and people of color from various stages of educational and career paths in science has long been referred to as the “leaky pipeline.” But in the article published last month, Berhe and her co-authors said that analogy ignores the systemic racism that in large part built the pipeline. Closer to the truth, they assert, is that the legacy of racism in science created a “vicious and hostile obstacle course” that blocks the advancement of women, as well as Black, Indigenous and people of color (BIPOC). To correct the well-documented lack of inclusion, “this exclusionary obstacle course should be placed in the context of scientific racism, colonial legacies and systemic biases that permeate our disciplines,” they wrote.
Climate denial still flourishes on Facebook — report - Facebook is still allowing climate denial to flourish on its platform despite pledging months ago to crack down. About half the content from major publishers of climate denial receives warning labels and very little is fact-checked, a new report from the Center for Countering Digital Hate has found. Just 10 publishers account for 69 percent of all user interactions with climate denial on the platform, which recently rebranded its parent company into Meta, the center found. Researchers reviewed 200 posts from leading climate denial publishers and found that more than half were not labeled as climate misinformation. “By failing to do even the bare minimum to address the spread of climate denial information, Meta is exacerbating the climate crisis,” said Imran Ahmed, chief executive of the Center for Countering Digital Hate. “Climate change denial — designed to fracture our resolve and impede meaningful action to mitigate climate change — flows unabated on Facebook and Instagram.” The group’s review of 184 Facebook posts from leading denial groups found that 50.5 percent of those posts had no label at all. The other 49.5 percent had labels that connected users to Facebook’s climate science resource center, but only one was a fact-check of the bad information contained in the post. The posts not labeled as misinformation include claims that global warming is a “hoax,” that “climate alarmists” are misleading Americans and that “COVID-19 and climate change are being used to steal our liberties.” Collectively, the posts had 1 million likes, shares or comments. About 542,000 interactions from Facebook users were with posts that received no label at all. The list of publishers that routinely post climate misinformation includes the Daily Wire, Breitbart, The Washington Times, Newsmax and Russian state media, according to the center. The review showed Facebook had an uneven response to the climate posts. For instance, all of the posts from RT.com, the Russian state media group, received labels. But six in 10 posts from Newsmax and the Media Research Center — which has been funded by fossil fuel companies as well as the conservative Mercer Family Foundation — didn’t receive any labels.
US envoy warns geopolitics risk hurting climate efforts - - Geopolitical tensions, including the current crisis between Russia and Ukraine, could hamper international efforts to curb global warming even as time to tackle the problem is running out, U.S. climate envoy John Kerry said Friday. Speaking at the annual Munich Security Conference, the former Secretary of State warned that the rise in the cost of energy stoked by the crisis may make consumers and governments wary of taking tough measures needed to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. “It’s not going to be positive because it’s going to distract rather enormously,” Kerry said of the current tensions. “The prices of fuel will inevitably rise even more," he said. “It will push people towards the path of least resistance, which we are already too much locked into, and that will bring about the path of greatest destruction." At the same time, Kerry said the situation could encourage some European nations such as Germany, which depend on Russian gas, coal and oil for much of their energy needs, to expand the use of renewable energy or seek other suppliers faster. “Will it spur transition? Yes, I think it will,” he told The Associated Press in a phone interview. Kerry, who has led the Biden administration’s international climate diplomacy efforts, said the U.S. and European Union are in talks about their plans to prevent domestic producers suffering because of imports from countries without stringent emissions reductions measures. Washington and Brussels hope to ensure their respective approaches to the problem are compatible, but potential trade conflicts loom with Russia and China, which strongly oppose any possible tariffs on their goods.
Court ruling on social cost of carbon upends Biden’s climate plans, administration warns - A recent court ruling that bars the Biden administration from accounting for the real-world costs of climate change has created temporary chaos at federal agencies, upending everything from planned oil and gas lease sales to infrastructure spending.The Feb. 11 decision by a Louisiana federal judge blocked the Biden administration from using a higher estimate for the damage that each additional ton of greenhouse gas pollution causes society. This formula, called the social cost of carbon, applies to consequential decisions affecting fossil fuel extraction on public lands, infrastructure projects and even international climate talks. The Justice Department said it intends to appeal the Louisiana judge’s preliminary injunction. But in the meantime, the ruling could set off a scramble at federal agencies to redo their analyses of major decisions that relied on the higher social cost of carbon, a top Biden administration official warned in a brief filed Saturday.“I understand that a significant number of agency rules and actions would need to be postponed or reworked as a result of the Preliminary Injunction,” wrote Dominic J. Mancini, deputy administrator of the Office of Information and Regulatory Affairs of the Office of Management and Budget. “The cumulative burden of the Preliminary Injunction is quite significant,” he added. “Regulatory impact analyses and analyses in support of other agency actions are often very complex and time-intensive studies that agencies can spend months developing and refining.” Mancini noted that the Energy Department had identified 21 rulemakings that would be affected by the ruling, while the Environmental Protection Agency had identified five and the Interior Department had pinpointed three. In addition, he said, Transportation Department officials had expressed concern about the potential for months-long delays to a grant program for rail and transit projects.
Feds predict NEPA delays after court nixes climate metric - A judge’s order blocking the Biden administration’s application of an interim climate metric will cause sweeping delays in agency rulemaking and stall planned projects requiring new environmental reviews, a White House official said this weekend. Dominic Mancini, the deputy administrator of the White House Office of Information and Regulatory Affairs, said a recent preliminary injunction barring the Biden administration from using an interim calculation of the social cost of greenhouse gases could slow finalization of at least 38 pending rules from four different agencies. The decision would also affect dozens of pending agency analyses — including those for federal oil and gas activity — leading to increased costs and more uncertainty for industry, Mancini said in a declaration filed Saturday with the U.S. District Court for the Western District of Louisiana. “The cumulative burden of the Preliminary Injunction is quite significant,” he said. Mancini later added, “[A]gencies are spending considerable resources and delaying a myriad of regulatory actions as they fully consider the implications of a changed scope of analyses.” Judge James Cain of the Louisiana district court stunned legal observers last week when he issued an order preventing the Biden administration from using an interim social cost of carbon metric developed by an interagency working group (Energywire, Feb. 14). The social cost of carbon puts a dollar value on a metric ton of emissions and is used to assess the societal benefits of imposing stricter regulation of emissions of carbon dioxide, methane and nitrogen oxides. Cain dismissed the metric’s incorporation of global emissions and sided with Louisiana Attorney General Jeff Landry (R) and other challengers’ arguments that the metric would cause harm by increasing states’ regulatory costs. Justice Department attorneys stated in a filing over the weekend that the federal government plans to fight Cain’s ruling in the 5th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals. The federal government also requested that Cain, a Trump pick, stop his ruling from taking effect no later than Feb. 28. If the judge declined to block his order by that date, DOJ attorneys said they would ask the 5th Circuit to intervene.
Biden administration announces mineral supply chain push - The Biden administration announced on Tuesday actions taken by both the federal government and private industry that it says will bolster the critical mineral supply chain. The minerals targeted by the administration are those used in technologies including electric vehicles, batteries, solar panels and wind turbines — as well as electronics and defense systems. According to a White House fact sheet, on the private side, MP Materials will invest $700 million in the magnet supply chain, creating 350 jobs by 2024 and that the company will be given an additional $35 million from the federal government for a magnet supply chain and the processing of rare earth elements. Meanwhile, Berkshire Hathaway Energy Renewables will break ground on a facility to test viability of a sustainable extraction process for lithium — a mineral that’s used in batteries. In the federal government, the Interior Department launched an interagency group pursuing “legislative and regulatory reform of mine permitting and oversight.” The fact sheet didn’t specify whether this reform would add restrictions or take them away. But, the Interior Department's press release announcing the group notes that currently, mining companies can stake claims "regardless of potential conflicts with other uses" and don't have to pay royalties to the government for the minerals they extract. It said that the group would "make recommendations for improvements necessary to ensure that new production meets strong environmental and community and Tribal engagement standards...while improving the efficiency and outcomes of the permitting process." The group will deliver recommendations to Congress by November, according to the White House. Meanwhile, the department was also expected to update its list of critical minerals. Last year, a draft update excluded uranium, which is used in nuclear energy. The Trump administration had included uranium on its 2018 list, but the Biden administration has argued that it can’t be included because of a 2020 law that excluded “fuel minerals.” Meanwhile, other agencies are expected to tout portions of the bipartisan infrastructure law, like the Energy Department, which was given $3 billion for battery recycling facilities and refining battery materials including lithium, cobalt, nickel and graphite. The administration sought to frame its push as both a boost to sustainability, as well as lessening the nation’s dependence on China, which is a major producer of some minerals.
EXCLUSIVE Pentagon to boost rare earths and lithium stockpiles -sources -(Reuters) - The Pentagon plans to boost the stockpile of rare earth minerals, cobalt and lithium it manages for the U.S. government to reduce its long-term dependence on China, two people familiar with the plan said. The new stockpile agreement guidance is expected to be announced as soon as next week, one of the people said, nearly a year after U.S. President Joe Biden issued an executive order to study U.S. supply chain resiliency in February 2021. Rare earths are often converted into magnets and used in next-generation weapons research as well as the Lockheed Martin Corp LMT.N F-35 jet and Raytheon Technologies Corp RTX.N precision guided munitions. Lithium, a key component used to make electric-vehicle batteries, will be vital to the Pentagon's goal of shifting its non-tactical vehicle fleet, currently 170,000 strong, to zero emissions. An agreement between the Departments of State, Energy and Defense was signed in early February and covers the select materials as well as large batteries used in the electrical grid, the people said. The Departments of Defense, Energy and State did not immediately respond to a request for comment. The memo also directs inter-agency coordination of an unclassified stockpile for relevant non-fuel minerals necessary for a transition to using more clean-technologies. The agreement enables other U.S. agencies, like the Department of Energy, to coordinate on and draw from these stockpiles, according to the people who spoke on condition of anonymity. Reuters could not determine if the agreement stipulated if the materials for the stockpiles were required to have a specific origin. The U.S. Congress has tried to stipulate where the Pentagon can source rare earths. Rare earths are a group of 17 metals that, after processing, are used to make magnets found in electric vehicles, weaponry and electronics. Since World War Two, U.S. military scientists developed the most widely-used type of rare earth magnet but China has slowly grown to control the entire sector in the past 30 years. The U.S. has only one rare earths mine and has no capability to process rare earth minerals. Many lithium and rare earth junior miners have hoped the Pentagon would buy more domestic product. To build reserves, the Pentagon buys supply in part from China, a paradox that many on Capitol Hill hope will abate in time.
Biden administration suspends right of way for Alaska mining road advanced by Trump officials - The Biden administration on Tuesday said it found “significant deficiencies” in a Trump-era environmental analysis of a mining road that would cut through wilderness and Indigenous territory in northwest Alaska. The construction of Ambler Road is one of the most high-profile environmental issues in Alaska, as it would bring 211 miles of new road through one of the largest roadless areas in the country. The Interior Department said in a statement that the road proposal — which includes about 50 miles of Bureau of Land Management and National Park Service land — would cross the traditional homelands of Alaska Native communities including the Koyukon, Tanana Athabascans and Iñupiat peoples. In a federal court filing Tuesday, the administration asked the U.S. District Court for Alaska to send the permit approval back to the department so it can conduct a new environmental analysis. Interior said that it would suspend the right of way for the road while it carried out the new assessment “to ensure that no ground-disturbing activity takes place that could potentially impact the resources in question.” Alaska Native groups endorsed the decision. “The 200+ Ambler road represents a fundamental threat to our people, our subsistence way of life and our cultural resources,” Brian Ridley, president of the Tanana Chiefs Conference, a nonprofit representing 42 tribes in interior Alaska, said in a statement. “We appreciate that the federal government recognized the flaws in the previous administration’s decisions to permit the road.” Some opponents of the road found the Biden administration’s decision lacking. Trustees for Alaska, an environmental group that has sued to stop the road, criticized the administration for not revoking the permits and said it “failed to acknowledge the full and long list of legal problems with the Interior Department’s approval process.” “This project never should have been authorized in the first place, and the agencies can’t fix their broken analysis by papering over their mistakes after the fact,” Suzanne Bostrom, senior staff attorney with Trustees for Alaska, said in a statement.
How much lithium can be extracted from the Salton Sea? A new DOE project seeks to find out. - A new Department of Energy-backed project will seek to quantify the amount of lithium resources in California's Salton Sea geothermal field as part of a broad effort to boost the country's supply of raw materials for batteries. It is well known that the Salton Sea area has stores of lithium, possibly enough to meet the country's needs in order to domestically produce batteries for energy storage and electric vehicles (EVs). The new project, with scientists from the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory; University of California, Riverside; and Geologica Geothermal Group, Inc., will be the first scientific effort to map out those resources and account for the environmental effects of extraction. The scientists will study brine from commercial geothermal energy plants in the Salton Sea field to measure the amount of lithium that is extracted. They hope to discover what the mineral sources of lithium are and whether underground rocks will "recharge" brine with lithium after it has been extracted. As the U.S. looks to boost production of EVs and install energy storage systems necessary to supplement the growth in renewable energy production, the supply chain for critical minerals has emerged as a potential hangup. A May 2021 report from the International Energy Agency detailed a "looming mismatch" between climate ambitions and critical mineral availability, with a predicted 4,000% increase in demand for lithium by 2040 if worldwide climate goals are met. According to a White House report, China controls 60% of the world's lithium production, leading the Biden administration to focus on new lithium production and materials processing as part of its clean energy push. California Gov. Gavin Newsom has said his state holds "what some have described as the Saudi Arabia of lithium," referring to the oil giant. Touting those resources as a crucial component of the state's transportation electrification goals, Newsom has proposed $350 million in tax credits and regulatory streamlining for lithium businesses as part of a broader clean energy budget package. The state has also formed a Lithium Valley Commission to review opportunities and benefits for extracting lithium from geothermal brine, with a report due to the state legislature by October. "The Salton Sea geothermal system is the primary potential geothermal resource for lithium in the United States, and it's a world-class resource," "there is a wide range of estimates in terms of the size of the resource," as well as uncertainty about where it comes from, how it might decline over time and how it is best extracted. There are 11 commercial geothermal energy plants in the Salton Sea, pumping hot fluids from deep underground and converting that heat into electricity. While that fluid is typically reinjected underground, there is potential to extract lithium from it after it has been cooled, taking advantage of the clean energy resource. Already, several companies have started pilot extraction projects.
Postal Service finalizes order for majority gasoline-powered trucks over White House objections - The U.S. Postal Service on Wednesday announced its finalized plans to order a new fleet of majority gasoline-powered vehicles, despite pushback from congressional Democrats that this would contravene the Biden administration’s emissions goals.In a statement Wednesday, Postmaster General Louis DeJoy said the Postal Service had finished its required evaluation of environmental impacts under the National Environmental Protection Act. DeJoy reiterated his argument that the agency lacked the financial resources to transition to a fully electric fleet.DeJoy, who awarded the vehicle contract to Oshkosh in February 2021, has only committed to 10 percent of the new vehicles being electrified, despite an executive order from President Biden calling on the federal government to reach net-zero emissions by 2050. The Postal Service has the single largest civilian fleet in the nation. “As our financial position improves with the ongoing implementation of our 10-year plan, Delivering for America, we will continue to pursue the acquisition of additional BEV [battery electric vehicles] as additional funding — from either internal or congressional sources — b ecomes available,” DeJoy said. “But the process needs to keep moving forward. The men and women of the U.S. Postal Service have waited long enough for safer, cleaner vehicles to fulfill on our universal service obligation to deliver to 161 million addresses in all climates and topographies six days per-week.” The move had been vehemently opposed by congressional Democrats and the Biden administration’s Council on Environmental Quality, as well as the Environmental Protection Agency, which sent a letter asking for clarification earlier in the month. Environmental groups were also strongly opposed. “Neither rain, nor sleet, nor financial good sense will stop the leaders of the U.S. Postal Service from trying to buy dirty, polluting delivery trucks,” Patricio Portillo, transportation analyst at the Natural Resources Defense Council, said in a statement. “For the sake of clean air and cost savings, it’s time to return this plan to sender. Congress and the White House should also step in and ensure that Trump-holdover Louis DeJoy and the current board of the post office don’t lock in decades of use of dirty vehicles under the gloom of night.”
USPS finalizes plan to purchase mostly gas-powered delivery fleet, defying Biden and EPA climate and safety concerns - The U.S. Postal Service finalized plans Wednesday to purchase up to 148,000 gasoline-powered mail delivery trucks, defying Biden administration officials’ objections that the multibillion-dollar contract would undercut the nation’s climate goals. Postmaster General Louis DeJoy disregarded requests from the White House Council on Environmental Quality and the Environmental Protection Agency this month to reconsider replacing the delivery fleet with 90 percent gas-powered trucks and 10 percent electric vehicles, at a cost of as much as $11.3 billion. The contract, orchestrated by DeJoy, offers only a 0.4-mpg fuel economy improvement over the agency’s current fleet.The decision is a major blow to the White House’s climate agenda. President Biden has pledged to transition the federal fleet to clean power, and apart from the military, the Postal Service has more vehicles than any other government agency. It accounts for nearly one-third of federally owned cars and trucks, and environmental and auto industry experts argue that the agency’s stop-and-start deliveries to 161 million addresses six days a week provides an ideal scenario for using electric vehicles.EPA officials said the Postal Service vastly underestimated the emissions of its proposed fleet of “Next Generation Delivery Vehicles,” accusing the mail agency of fudging the math in its analysis to justify the massive purchase of internal-combustion-engine trucks.DeJoy, a holdover from the Trump administration, has called his agency’s investment in green transportation “ambitious,” even as environmental groups and other postal leaders have privately mocked the claim. When DeJoy repeated the characterization at a public meeting of the Postal Service’s governing board this month, his remarks were met with chuckles from the audience.DeJoy said in a statement that the agency was open to pursuing more electric vehicles if “additional funding — from either internal or congressional sources — becomes available.” But he added that the agency had “waited long enough” for new vehicles.Environmental advocates assailed the agency’s decision, saying it would lock in decades of climate-warming emissions and worsen air pollution. DeJoy has accused Congress and climate activists of pushing the mail agency toward electric vehicles as a matter of “public policy” in the face of the Postal Service’s deteriorating fleet of “Long Life Vehicles” and dire financial condition. Critics have responded that DeJoy’s embrace of fossil fuel vehicles will cost the Postal Service billions of dollars over the trucks’ 20-year life span. The first new trucks are expected to hit the street in 2023. Here are six of the contract’s most controversial aspects:
Toyota and Yamaha are developing a hydrogen-fueled V8 engine -Toyota has commissioned Yamaha Motor to develop a hydrogen-fueled engine, with the president of the latter stating that his company was committed to the internal combustion engine. In an announcement toward the end of last week, Yamaha said the 5.0-liter V8 engine would be developed for automobiles and based on the one used by the Lexus RC F coupe, with alterations made to its cylinder heads and injectors, among other things. According to Yamaha, the unit is able to deliver as much as 450 horsepower at 6,800 revolutions per minute. The company said it had been working on a hydrogen engine for automobiles for roughly five years. Yamaha Motor President Yoshihiro Hidaka said that while his company was aiming to achieve carbon neutrality by the year 2050 it also had "a strong passion for and level of commitment to the internal combustion engine." "Hydrogen engines house the potential to be carbon-neutral while keeping our passion for the internal combustion engine alive at the same time,"
Ohio road budget could run low in switch to EVs - Ohio drivers’ switch to electric vehicles could leave a nearly $2 billion hole in the state’s annual transportation budget. Gasoline and diesel taxes of nearly $2 billion per year make up a big chunk of Ohio’s $8.3 billion biennial transportation budget. They’re an important (though not exclusive) source of funding for roads, bridges, and other infrastructure projects. The loss of that and other fossil fuel revenue will likely present big challenges for state and local budgets in the coming decades, according to a recent report on public finance implications from the clean energy transition. Ohio is relatively fortunate compared to other states featured in a recent working paper from Resources for the Future, a nonprofit environmental and economics research group based in Washington, D.C. Wyoming, for example, depends on fossil fuels for 59% of its state and local tax revenue. Still, most state road budgets will feel the impact as more drivers choose electric or more fuel-efficient vehicles. In Ohio, work is already underway within the state government to develop alternative funding approaches. Nationwide, revenues from coal, oil, and natural gas generated an average of $138 billion per year for states, local governments, tribes, and the federal government, Raimi and his colleagues reported in their Jan. 13 working paper. As they see it, planning for a just energy transition calls for planning to replace those revenues as they eventually dwindle.
Hydrogen generation could become a $1 trillion per year market, Goldman Sachs says -Hydrogen has an important role to play in any transition to net-zero and its generation could develop into a market worth over $1 trillion a year, according to Goldman Sachs. "If we want to go to net-zero we can't do it just through renewable power," Michele DellaVigna, the bank's commodity equity business unit leader for the EMEA region, told CNBC's "Squawk Box Europe" earlier this week. "We need something that takes today's role of natural gas, especially to manage seasonality and intermittency, and that is hydrogen." Hydrogen has a diverse range of applications and can be deployed in a wide range of industries. "It's a very powerful molecule," DellaVigna said. "We can use it for heavy transport, we can use it for heating, and we can use it for heavy industry." The key, he argued, was to "produce it without CO2 emissions. And that's why we talk about green, we talk about blue hydrogen." Described by the International Energy Agency as a "a versatile energy carrier," hydrogen can be produced in a number of ways. One method includes using electrolysis, with an electric current splitting water into oxygen and hydrogen. If the electricity used in this process comes from a renewable source such as wind or solar then some call it green or renewable hydrogen. Blue hydrogen refers to hydrogen produced using natural gas — a fossil fuel — with the CO2 emissions generated during the process captured and stored. There has been a charged debate around the role blue hydrogen can play in the decarbonization of society. "Whether we do it with electrolysis or we do it with carbon capture, we need to generate hydrogen in a clean way," DellaVigna said. "And once we have it, I think we have a solution that could become, one day, at least 15% of the global energy markets which means it will be ... over a trillion dollar market per annum."
Bill adding hydropower storage technology to clean energy list passes House -- Senate Bill 147 would add underground pumped storage hydropower to Indiana’s list of clean energy resources. It passed the state House on Monday. The technology generates energy by passing water through a turbine as it moves from a higher reservoir to a lower one. It accounts for most utility-scale energy storage in the U.S., but hasn’t been used much in Indiana — which has fewer of the hills and valleys needed to create the two reservoirs. But supporters of the bill say abandoned mines and quarries in Indiana could allow the state to use this technology — and bring economic opportunity to those areas. It's unclear if the bill will head to conference committee before going to Gov. Eric Holcomb's desk.
U.S. kicks off its biggest offshore wind auction (Reuters) - The largest ever U.S. sale of offshore wind development rights - for areas off the coasts of New York and New Jersey - attracted record-setting bids on Wednesday from companies seeking to be a part of President Joe Biden’s plan to create a booming new domestic industry. It is the first offshore wind lease sale under Biden, who has made expansion of offshore wind a cornerstone of his strategy to address global warming and decarbonize the U.S. electricity grid by 2035, all while creating thousands of jobs. With bidding still underway, the auction was on track to easily top the $405 million U.S. offshore wind auction record set in 2018, according to updates posted on the U.S. Bureau of Ocean Energy Management’s (BOEM) web site. After 11 rounds, bidding stood at a record-setting $250 million for a single lease 32 miles (51.5 km) off the coast of New Jersey. The government had identified that 114-acre area - the largest offered in the sale - as being capable of producing power for more than 485,000 homes. The previous record amount paid for a U.S. offshore wind lease was $135.1 million in 2018 for a lease off the coast of Massachusetts. High bids on each of the other five areas in the auction ranged between $12.6 million and $134.3 million as of Wednesday afternoon.
Could Russian sanctions hobble U.S. clean energy push? - - Russia’s oil and gas industries have gotten a lot of attention in the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, but some experts say Russia’s mining interests could also complicate the U.S. response to the nation’s invasion of its neighbor. Russia is a leading producer of copper, nickel, platinum group metals and other minerals considered crucial for building a lower-carbon future. As tensions surrounding Ukraine have ratcheted up, the metals markets Russia plays in were driven into a frenzy, with the price of nickel currently sitting at an 11-year high. Some observers are arguing that Russia’s invasion of Ukraine underscores a national security rationale for weaning off of fossil fuels, perhaps particularly for European countries that look east for a large share of their natural gas. But experts caution that a shift away from fossil fuels carries its own strategic implications, given Russia’s standing as a major metal miner, which could complicate broad sanctions as the country continues its assault on a U.S. ally. At a time when metal supply is tight, some watching the chaos unfold in Europe are wondering whether the violence could result in retaliatory measures that wind up shifting the supply of metals away from Western manufacturers. The focus in the “energy world regarding the Russian invasion” has been “around the implications for oil and natural gas, which will likely be significant in various ways,” said Morgan Bazilian, director of the Payne Institute for Public Policy at the Colorado School of Mines. “Less highlighted are the implications for other commodities including nickel, aluminum, steel, cobalt and copper,” Bazilian said, noting that all of those materials are ones “Russia has in significant quantities.” The White House declined to comment on whether Russian mining companies or executives of those companies would be targeted in future sanctions. One of the largest companies in the nickel business is Norilsk Nickel, or Nornickel. The company primarily produces nickel largely for industrial purposes, but has sought to promote itself as a future provider of pivotal metals for the energy transition through dealmaking with Western countries. Nickel is a crucial commodity for making lithium-ion batteries for electric vehicles. German battery maker BASF has partnered with Nornickel to develop a fully integrated nickel refinery and battery manufacturing complex in Finland, which it hopes to start operating this year. British chemicals firm Johnson Matthey also has a supply deal with Nornickel for supply from the Finland refinery. BASF is far from the only Nornickel customer in the green economy. Nornickel is the world’s largest producer of palladium, a valuable material used to make catalytic converters. Even if manufacturers one day replace palladium in new catalytic converters with platinum, Russian miners are the second-largest producer of that metal, too.
How PJM's 'fat market' for capacity fuels environmental injustice and consumer expense -A lot of ears perked when Federal Energy Commission Chair Richard Glick called out the "obsession" with increasing power plant revenues in the largest U.S. wholesale power market. It’s not every day the nation’s top energy regulator speaks quite so bluntly, urging an end to the focus on "bolstering uneconomic generation" in the 13-state PJM Interconnection region. To help provide some daylight, our research team used public data on power plants’ size, age, location, plant type and history of use to model the costs of existing and proposed coal and gas units in PJM’s market to buy capacity for 2021/22, which was held in 2018. We also mapped generators in relation to environmental justice communities using thedefinition of the Department of Environmental Protection in Pennsylvania, the state where PJM is headquartered. This means census tracts in which more than 20% of residents live at or below the federal poverty level, or where more than 30% are people of color. Region-wide in PJM, we find that the majority of existing fossil fuel units are located directly in or within a mile of an environmental justice community. More than 80% are located within five miles. Zeroing in on just those existing and proposed coal and gas units benefitting from excess capacity procurement in the PJM market, what we term the PJM "fat market," we estimate that there are 77 uneconomic generating units receiving these excess payments. This is based on modeling plants’ capacity market offer prices and also estimating the market clearing price we might see in a more efficiently-run PJM market, one that’s not overbuying so much.A third of the 77 units we estimate to be receiving fat market revenues in PJM are proposed gas units, which often rely partly on capacity payments to secure financing. Two-thirds are existing units on the grid today. Significantly, a substantial majority of these 77 "fat market" coal and gas units are located or planned within five miles of an environmental justice community, and nearly half are within a mile. We estimate that, region-wide, customers are paying $4.3 billion for the excess capacity.At the state level, there are some notable takeaways. The large majority of the 77 fat market coal and gas units – 71% of them – are located in three PJM states: Pennsylvania, Ohio and New Jersey. Pennsylvania stands out for having by far the most proposed gas units receiving payments in PJM’s 2021/22 capacity market according to our model. Nearly three quarters of the 26 proposed gas units with fat market payments in PJM are located in Pennsylvania. In Maryland, New Jersey, Ohio and Virginia, every single gas and coal unit benefitting from 2021/22 fat-market capacity payments in PJM is located within 5 miles of an environmental justice community. In Delaware, Illinois and Kentucky, every fat-market unit is within 1 mile of an environmental justice community.
Ex-ERCOT chief says Abbott directed freeze blackouts to stop before decision to run up billions in bills -The former head of the Texas power grid testified in court Wednesday that he was following the direction of Governor Greg Abbott when the grid manager ordered wholesale power prices to stay at the maximum price cap for days on end during last year’s winter storm and blackout, running up billions of dollars in bills for power companies.Bill Magness, the former CEO of the Electric Reliability Council of Texas, said even as power plants were starting to come back online, former Public Utility Commission Chair DeAnn Walker told him that Abbott wanted them to do whatever necessary to prevent further rotating blackouts that left millions of Texans without power.“She told me the governor had conveyed to her if we emerged from rotating outages it was imperative they not resume,” Magness testified. “We needed to do what we needed to do to make it happen.”Last year the governor's spokesman, Mark Miner, said Abbott was not “involved in any way” in the decision to keep wholesale electricity prices at the maximum of $9,000 per megawatt hour – more than 150 times normal prices. He described a decision to send an aide to ERCOT's operations center in the middle of the crisis as based on the feeling the grid operator was spewing “disinformation.""As Texans would expect, Governor Abbott instructed everyone involved that they must do what was needed to keep the power on and to prevent the loss of life,” Miner said in an email Wednesday. “This is the same instruction Governor Abbott gave to the PUC and ERCOT (during a cold snap) earlier this year: Do what needs to be done to keep the power on.”The decision to keep power prices at the maximum cap is now at the center of a bankruptcy trial waged by the Waco-based electric co-op Brazos Electric. Brazos contends that decision was made recklessly, adding up to a $1.9 billion power bill from ERCOT that forced co-op into bankruptcy.
Groups intend to sue EPA, alleges Illinois failed to submit pollution reduction plans by deadline - - A coalition of environmental advocacy groups have filed a notice of intent to sue the Environmental Protection Agency for its failure to enforce the Regional Haze Rule required by the Clean Air Act, according to the Sierra Club. These groups include Sierra Club and Earthjustice who say Illinois is among thirty-nine states that failed to submit the most recent Regional Haze plans to the EPA by the July 31 deadline. A spokesperson for EPA declined comment, citing pending litigation. The EPA had until Jan. 31, 2022 to issue a formal finding that these states have failed to submit the requisite Regional Haze state implementation plan (SIP), but the agency has not yet done so, according to the release.The notice of intent to sue filed by the coalition of organizations asks the EPA to “fulfill its mandatory obligation established by Congress.”“Analysis done by the National Parks Conservation Association (NPCA)shows that the Prairie State coal plant is one of Illinois’ most significant contributors to regional haze pollution,” the release said. “While Illinois does not have any areas specifically protected under Regional Haze Rule, the state hosts several heavily polluting facilities that degrade air quality at dozens of our country’s national parks in neighboring states. The EPA must enforce the existing application deadline and insist that the Illinois EPA submit a state implementation plan (SIP) as soon as possible.”
Dominion Energy Plans to Put New Coal Ash Landfill on Potomac River- Dominion Energy wants to create a permanent solution for a decades-long pileup of coal ash by building a new, lined landfill on its Possum Point property by the Potomac River. The Virginia utility company presented its plans to a small group of stakeholders during an online meeting in January. The Possum Point Power Station burned coal for power from 1948 to 2002, creating expansive ponds throughout the property to store the resulting ash. The site’s five ash ponds have over the last six years been consolidated into one that now holds 4 million cubic yards of coal ash—enough to fill the Capitol Rotunda 83 times. Nationwide, coal ash sitting in ponds and pits has become a large industrial waste stream, leaving states and utilities grappling with strategies for safe disposal. The ash contains toxic chemicals and heavy metals such as arsenic, lead and mercury that pose health risks to people, fish and wildlife. Virginia is among a handful of states with coal ash closure requirements that are stricter than the federal standards were at the time the state law was passed. Spencer Adkins, director of power generation projects at Dominion, explained during the online meeting that the company’s preferred method for handling the ash at Possum Point is to create a new lined landfill next to the existing storage pond. Doing so would cost $347 million, Dominion estimates. Recycling half of the ash to create building materials and removing the rest by truck would cost about twice as much. Recycling half and removing the rest by rail would cost about three times as much—as would removing all of the ash to an offsite lined landfill, the company says. “In terms of impact, cost and permitting, we think this is a very attractive option. We think it is least impactful to the local neighborhood,” Adkins said. Dominion originally planned to permanently “cap” the coal ash in its current location in the clay-lined pond. The company took a similar approach to legacy coal ash pits at three other power stations located along Chesapeake Bay rivers in Virginia. But a 2019 state law required utilities to move piles of coal ash currently stored at a handful of power stations to landfills with modern synthetic liners, or to recycle them. The law also requires that about 25 percent of the ash from at least two of the four affected sites be recycled. Some environmentalists who’ve followed Dominion’s coal ash decisions for years still oppose keeping the ash at Possum Point. “My position is consistent,” Potomac Riverkeeper Dean Naujoks said. “We want all the ash moved from the banks of the Potomac River, and we want as much recycled as possible and [the rest] put in a lined landfill so it doesn’t threaten water quality. And we want it hauled out by rail. We haven’t changed our position.”
EPA coal ash crackdown could shutter southeast Ohio power plant - The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency is cracking down on groundwater pollution from the James M. Gavin power plant in Cheshire, which some say could mean the beginning of the end for Ohio’s largest coal-fired facility. The plant’s coal ash pond, a 58-acre reservoir that holds the noxious waste left behind from burnt coal, is unlined. This runs afoul of 2015 federal regulations that went largely unenforced until the agency advanced on a nationwide crackdown earlier this year. Coal ash, the byproduct of burning coal for power, is a toxic brew of industrial waste comprised of arsenic, boron, cadmium, lithium, mercury, selenium and other carcinogens and neurotoxins. Power plants generally store it on site in piles or pools. Unlined ponds run a risk of the chemicals leaching downward and poisoning groundwater below. The company’s monitoring has detected “constituents” of coal ash in the groundwater, but it denies that its pond is the source of the contamination. In 2008, a dike containing a coal ash pond in Kingston, Tennessee failed, leading to a massive spill of 5.4 million cubic yards of coal ash that that killed at least 30 cleanup workers and poisoned the nearby Emory River. While the sludgy spills grab the headlines, environmental advocates and the EPA say groundwater contamination is the real devil. “The dam breaking gets the attention, but the slower disaster is groundwater seepage,” said Megan Wachspress, an environmental attorney with the Sierra Club. In late January, the EPA released a proposed decision to deny a request from Gavin’s operators to extend the plant’s coal ash permit. If the agency finalizes its decision, the plant must cease dumping new waste into the pond within 135 days, unless PJM, the regional grid operator, determines closure would starve the system of needed power to meet demand. The plant’s robust generation comes at an environmental cost. The facility emitted 13.7 million metric tons of carbon dioxide, 40,000 metric tons of methane, and 70,000 tons of nitrous oxide in 2020 alone, according to the EPA, all of which are greenhouse gasses that contribute to climate change.
State senator pitches lower-cost financing for Plant Vogtle expansion -– Allowing Georgia Power to finance the Plant Vogtle nuclear expansion and other large projects through ratepayer-backed bonds could save customers hundreds of millions of dollars, supporters told a state Senate committee Tuesday. But an executive with the Atlanta-based utility said such securitized bonds are risky and are typically reserved only for unexpected costs. Senate Bill 421 would authorize Georgia Power to pursue securitized bond financing to recover some of the costs of the Vogtle project as well as what Georgia Power is spending to retire its fleet of coal-burning power plants and clean up the ash ponds surrounding those plants. Going with securitized bonds would be voluntary on Georgia Power’s part and would be subject to a vote of the state Public Service Commission (PSC). Securitized bonds would reduce interest rates compared to traditional bond financing, yielding utility customers huge savings, Senate Finance Committee Chairman Chuck Hufstetler, R-Rome, told members of the Senate Committee on Regulated Industries and Utilities. Twenty-two states have adopted laws allowing securitized bonds, Hufstetler said. “Moody’s [Investors Service] says securitization is credit-positive,” he said. “This seems to work in other states.” Representatives of both the state’s largest power customers – the Georgia Association of Manufacturers – and residential ratepayers testified in favor of Hufstetler’s bill. Liz Coyle, executive director of the consumer advocacy group Georgia Watch, said Georgia Power’s customers have been paying for the construction of two additional nuclear reactors at Plant Vogtle since 2011, even though the project still isn’t finished. The utility has been earning a profit on the project during that time, despite extreme delays and cost overruns, Coyle said. By the time the reactors go into service late this year and next year, the average customer will have paid $900 toward the project, she said. “This bill is an opportunity for the power company and the commission to relieve some of the higher costs coming onto customers’ bills,” she said.
Federal officials reverse decision to extend Florida nuclear plant license The U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) on Monday reversed a 2019 decision to extend operating licenses for a nuclear power plant in southern Florida over potential environmental concerns.The NRC will next conduct an environmental review of the site and hold a hearing, the Miami Herald reported.Federal agents with the commission reversed a decision allowing two reactors at the Florida Power & Light plant near Miami to operate until 2052 and 2053, the Associated Press reported. The prior decision was made by previous commission members under Republican leadership. The NRC, which oversees commercial power plants across the U.S., already approved the reactors at Turkey Point to run until 2032 and 2031 and the decision does not affect the current operations of the plant, according to the AP. But reversing the extension of the operating licenses gives environmental groups to explain concerns about climate change, sea level rise and environmental impacts. Rachel Silverstein, head of Miami Waterkeeper, which is one of a number of organizations challenging the license extension, called the NRC's decision a "victory for resiliency, for science, for safety and for the environment." “We’ve spent years working on this issue and we’re absolutely thrilled that the NRC has decided to require updating the environmental assessments for operating extensions," Silverstein told the Miami Herald.
Six Sue Fukushima Nuclear Plant Operator Over Thyroid Cancer - Six young people will sue the operator of Japan's stricken Fukushima nuclear plant on Thursday over claims they developed thyroid cancer due to exposure to radiation after the facility's meltdown. The plaintiffs, now aged between 17 and 27, were living in the Fukushima region when a huge earthquake on March 11, 2011 triggered a tsunami that caused the nuclear disaster. They will file a class-action lawsuit on Thursday afternoon against plant operator Tokyo Electric Power Company (TEPCO), seeking a total of 616 million yen ($5.4 million) in compensation, the group's lead lawyer Kenichi Ido told AFP. No causal relationship between radiation exposure from the disaster and thyroid cancer has been recognised by an expert panel set up by the regional government, and whether such a link exists could become a focal point of the case. A United Nations report published last year concluded that the Fukushima nuclear disaster had not directly harmed the health of local residents a decade after the catastrophe. A higher rate of thyroid cancer detected among children exposed to the radiation was likely due to better diagnostics, the UN's Scientific Committee on the Effects of Atomic Radiation concluded. But the plaintiffs' lawyers say none of the cancers suffered by the group were hereditary, arguing it is highly likely the disease was caused by exposure to radiation. "Some plaintiffs have had difficulties advancing to higher education and finding jobs, and have even given up on their dreams for their future," Ido said. The plaintiffs, who will file their lawsuit at Tokyo District Court, were aged between six and 16 at the time of the disaster. They were diagnosed with thyroid cancer between 2012 and 2018.
‘Not a dumping ground’: Pacific condemns Fukushima water plan - The Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands says there is a viable alternative to Japan’s plan to dump more than 1 million tonnes of treated water from the crippled Fukushima nuclear power station into the Pacific Ocean, and it requires urgent consideration. The wastewater is a product of efforts to cool the nuclear reactors at Fukushima that were badly damaged in the March 2011 earthquake and tsunami. The Northern Mariana Islands, a United States territory with a population of about 51,659 people, is located only 2,500km (1,553 miles) southeast of Japan. The islands’ leaders have declared that Japan’s plan, officially announced last year, is unacceptable.“The expectation is that the discharge will not happen until 2023. There is time to overturn this decision,” Sheila J Babauta, a member of the Northern Mariana Islands’s House of Representatives, told Al Jazeera in an interview last month. In December, its government adopted a joint resolution opposing any nation’s decision to dispose of nuclear waste in the Pacific Ocean.“The effort that went into the creation of the joint resolution exposed research and reports from Greenpeace East Asia highlighting alternatives for the storage of Japan’s nuclear waste, including the only acceptable option, long-term storage and processing using the best technology available,” Babauta said.Currently, Japan intends to dispose of all the wastewater, which will be treated, over a period of about 30 years.Anxiety is high among local Japanese fishers and coastal communities. And its plan has met with vocal opposition from neighbouring countries, including China, South Korea and Taiwan, as well as Pacific Island countries and the Pacific Islands Forum, the intergovernmental organisation for the region.“This water adds to the already nuclear polluted ocean. This threatens the lives and livelihoods of islanders heavily reliant on marine resources. These include inshore fisheries as well as pelagic fishes such as tuna. The former provides daily sustenance and food security, and the latter much needed foreign exchange via fishing licences for distant water fishing nation fleets,” Vijay Naidu, adjunct professor at the School of Law and Social Sciences at the University of the South Pacific in Fiji, told Al Jazeera.It was the use of the Pacific Islands for nuclear weapons testing by the US, the United Kingdom and France from t he 1940s to late last century which has driven heated opposition among islanders to any nuclear-related activities in the region.
Prosecutor: Householder criminal case shouldn't be dismissed - (AP) — Arguments that a racketeering conspiracy charge in a $60 million bribery scheme should be dismissed against former Ohio House Speaker Larry Householder are invalid because they apply the wrong legal standards and ignore the substance of the allegations against him, federal prosecutors argued in a motion filed Tuesday. The motion was in response to one filed earlier this month by Householder’s attorneys, who argued that prosecutors have not provided “essential facts” for an indictment and the alleged bribes were in fact constitutionally protected campaign contributions. Householder is accused of shepherding the $60 million scheme secretly funded by Akron-based FirstEnergy Corp. to win legislative approval of a $1 billion bailout of two Ohio nuclear plants. The plants were operated by a wholly-owned FirstEnergy subsidiary when the bailout bill was approved in 2019. Householder, four associates and a dark money political group were indicted on racketeering charges in July 2020 for their alleged roles in the scheme. Two associates and the dark money group, Generation Now, have since pleaded guilty. Another associate has died since the charges were filed. Householder’s attorneys argued there was no quid pro quo arrangement and that Householder took political positions benefitting FirstEnergy. Prosecutors wrote the indictment contains 26 pages of facts supporting the allegations against Householder and that he took official action “linked to furthering the nuclear bailout legislation” in return for “specific contributions.” Steps Householder took to get the bill approved don’t qualify as official acts, prosecutors argued. FirstEnergy and the U.S. Attorney’s Office announced in July the company would pay a $230 million fine as part of a deferred prosecution agreement. FirstEnergy in a statement of facts that accompanied the agreement details what company officials did to get the bailout bill approved and to prevent an anti-bailout referendum from reaching the ballot. A charge of conspiracy to commit honest services wire fraud will be dismissed against FirstEnergy in three years if the company abides by a long list of reform-minded provisions listed in the agreement. The House stripped Householder of his speakership in July 2020. He was re-elected to his Perry County seat the following November and became only the second state lawmaker in Ohio history to be expelled by fellow lawmakers last June.
Editorial: Ohio needs a consistent earthquake-risk policy on permitting fracking waste wells -- Northeast Ohio’s unique geology has long made it a favored site for deep-injection-well disposal of toxic waste. But 35 years ago, two geologists from Columbia University’s Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory -- John Armbruster and Leonardo Seeber -- first linked a 1987 swarm of Ashtabula County earthquakes to a 1986 injection well. The two men pinpointed the epicenter of the main July 1987 earthquake at 0.7 kilometers from the well, which had started pumping toxic fluids into the sandstone formation one year earlier. They also found that the injected fluids had triggered a previously unknown near-vertical fault in the region’s basement rocks. The 1987 discovery put everyone on notice of two things: First, deep-well disposal of toxic fluids could trigger earthquakes. And second, Northeast Ohio’s unmapped substructure of ancient fault lines could behave in unpredictable ways across a wide swath of populated areas. Starting in March 2011, another swarm of earthquakes was felt along another previously unknown fault line in the Youngstown area. The 12 earthquakes were all within a mile of a deep-disposal well injecting oil and gas waste fluids into a Precambrian layer of rocks. Instrumentation from Lamont-Doherty was again deployed and, on December 24, 2011, pinpointed the epicenter of a 2.7 magnitude temblor at 2,454 feet below the injection well. The well was shut down six days later. The next day, on Dec. 31, a magnitude 4.0 earthquake hit, causing then-Gov. John Kasich to impose a moratorium on other deep-disposal wells in the area. Kasich later issued a temporary executive order imposing new regulations on deep-injection wells and increasing the authority of state officials. Eventually, the Ohio Division of Oil & Gas within the state Department of Natural Resources adopted new rules and approaches to improve its ability to detect and understand “induced seismicity” from such operations. AWMS has been trying ever since to get the #2 well reopened, cleveland.com’s Eric Heisig has reported, including trips to the state appellate courts and Supreme Court to argue that the state’s stance constituted “taking” of its property. Eventually, state regulators determined that the #2 well could reopen -- but must shut again if a 2.1 or greater earthquake was measured within a three-mile radius, allowing the state time to determine the earthquake’s cause. AWMS wants the trigger to be a 3.0 earthquake and it has asked the Ohio Oil & Gas Commission to let it reopen with the power to decide on its own when to restart after an earthquake-related shutdown. The state says a 3.0 earthquake trigger would create unacceptable risks in a populated area, including to an aging, unstable dam nearby. The hearing was held last week; a final determination is not expected anytime soon. What’s needed, however, is not a commission fiat, but a clear and consistent ODNR policy on seismic risk and deep-injection-well permitting that puts public safety first, but with the seismic-detection instrumentation to match. We now have decades of evidence that deep-injection disposal in Northeast Ohio can cause earthquakes. It’s time to spell out in permits what happens if a well is suspected of inducing earthquakes. Yes, AWMS knowingly drilled in an area of seismic risk, but its well was also fully permitted by the state -- and has now been closed for nearly eight years.
Fracking Wastewater Loaded With Toxic Chemicals, Study Shows - Fracking has already raised the ire of environmentalists for its effects on the planet, but new research sends up another red flag: The wastewater produced by the complicated oil and gas drilling process is loaded with toxic and cancer-causing contaminants that threaten both people and wildlife.In fracking, water that contains a number of additives is used in the drilling process. This injected water mixes with groundwater and resurfaces as a waste byproduct containing both the additives and contaminants from the drilling site.In this study, researchers analyzed untreated fracking wastewater samples from the Permian Basin and Eagle Ford formation, both in Texas, and found 266 different dissolved organic compounds.They included: a pesticide called atrazine; 1,4-dioxane, an organic compound that is irritating to the eyes and respiratory tract; pyridine, a chemical that may damage the liver; and polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs), which have been linked to skin, lung, bladder, liver and stomach cancers.In the water, 29 elements were also detected, including rare earth elements, selenium and hazardous metals such as chromium, cadmium, lead and uranium, according to the study.The findings were released as regulators work on proposed guidelines for the safe treatment and disposal of fracking wastewater."The discovery of these chemicals in [fracking wastewater] suggests that greater monitoring and remediation efforts are needed, since many of them are listed to be dangerous for human health by the World Health Organization," said study author Emanuela Gionfriddo, an assistant professor of analytical chemistry in the School of Green Chemistry and Engineering at the University of Toledo in Ohio. "Our comprehensive characterization sheds insight into the processes taking place during hydraulic fracturing and the nature of the geologic formation of each well site," Gionfriddo added in a university news release.
Shell Cracker Plant Update and Impact at Utica Green Upstream & Midstream Conference - -- A decade after Royal Dutch Shell announced it was looking at a Southwestern Pennsylvania site to build an ethane cracker, construction of the $10 billion project is nearing completion. In 2021, the latest economic impact study of the Beaver County facility (by a Robert University professor trio) projects an annual kick from operations to the state economy of more than $3.69 billion -- $81.68 billion over the 40-year life of the massive complex. While this study, previous studies on the cracker complex and predictions by economists, academicians, etc. have detailed tax and job impacts, Tom Gellrich says don’t forget the long-term positive benefits to plastic processors. Gellrich, president and founder of consulting firm TopLine Analytics, argues said processors are licking their proverbial chops as the Shell cracker nears completion. Gellrich will be one of the featured speakers at the Inaugural Utica Green Upstream & Midstream Conference on March 25, 2022 at the Pro Football Hall of Fame in Canton, Ohio which has Encino Energy as the presenting sponsor. Shale Directories and the Canton Regional Chamber of Commerce are producing the conference. Cost savings using the Shell facility vs. ethylene and polyethylene now shipped from the U.S. Gulf Coast can be huge. One study priced the transportation advantage, pellets shipped from Beaver County vs. the Gulf Coast, at nearly 25%. “The impact of the Shell cracker on plastics processors is immense,” Gellrich told Shale Directories. “We encourage all plastics processors in the Appalachian Basin and beyond to attend the Utica Green Upstream & Midstream Conference,” commented Joe Barone, President and Founder, Shale Directories. He further added, “The opportunities coming to these companies are significant as the result the availability and attractive pricing.” One potential customer fed by the Shell cracker could pursue is the world’s largest retailer. Walmart announced in March 2021 it will spend over the next 10 years $350 billion on additional items made, grown, or assembled in the U.S., rather than elsewhere. “No. 1 on Walmart’s list of categories it will focus on is plastics,” Gellrich pointed out.
Equitrans plans expansion of Ohio Valley Connector pipeline - Pittsburgh Business Times -- Equitrans Midstream Corp.'s plans to complete the Mountain Valley Pipeline might still be in limbo after several court rulings derailed its timeline, but the Canonsburg-based company said it's going ahead with another project that will increase the capacity of a pipeline in the tri-state area. Equitrans said Tuesday it had filed for Federal Energy Regulatory Commission approval for the Ohio Valley Connector Expansion Project, a $160 million initiative that will add compression along the lines in Pennsylvania, Ohio and West Virginia and allow Equitrans to flow more natural gas. "The creation of this incremental deliverability will provide shippers with additional flexibility to transport natural gas produced in the central Appalachian Basin to meet the growing demand by local distribution companies, industrial users, and power generation facilities located in the local and mid-continent, northeastern and gulf coast markets of the United States," Equitrans said in its FERC filing on Jan. 28. The pipeline, which began service in 2016, brings 850 million cubic feet per day of Pennsylvania and West Virginia-produced natural gas — primarily from EQT Corp. (NYSE: EQT) — to long-distance pipelines to the Gulf Coast and the middle of the country. It will add pipeline connections to Rockies Express Pipeline and Rover Pipeline LLC in Clarington, Ohio, and boost reliability to other pipelines including Texas Eastern Transmission LP, Columbia Gas Transmission and Eastern Gas Transmission and Storage. Most of the investment, $130 million, will go to increasing compression along the pipeline route. Compressor units are what move the gas from point to point along the pipeline and higher compression allows more gas to be flowed. The three compressor stations are in Greene County south of Waynesburg; in Wetzel County, West Virginia; and Monroe County, Ohio, near the Ohio River. The project is expected to be operational in 2023 and including the additional compression units will also add about 5.5 miles of pipeline near the compressor stations and a deep anode groundbed and rectifier in Greene County, Pa. It will add about 350 million cubic feet per day of natural gas and Equitrans already has 330 million cubic feet per day in long-term firm capacity commitments and an extension of its agreement with EQT.
‘Irreversible’: No easy fix for water fouled by gas driller - — Meeting with a Susquehanna County man whose well water has been polluted for years, officials in the Pennsylvania attorney general’s office asked him whether he’d consider accepting a treatment system from the gas driller charged with fouling his aquifer. Not a chance, Ray Kemble told them. “Are you going to drink and bathe in it?” Kemble asked the prosecutor and her colleague, a special agent. “Are you two going to come here and live in this house on that system for a month and use that water?” The officials demurred..The pushback from residents who have been fighting for clean water since the second Bush administration illustrates the delicacy of the attorney general’s task in Dimock, a place synonymous with the fracking debate, where acrimony and distrust are the default after nearly 14 years of bad water and broken promises to fix it. It was an exploding water well that first aroused public attention in the previously anonymous patchwork of homes and farms just south of the New York border. Around that time, residents began reporting their well water was making them sick with symptoms including vomiting, dizziness and rashes. Anti-drilling celebrities and documentary filmmakers descended on the town of Dimock, calling it an example of natural gas industry malfeasance in the nation’s No. 2 gas-producing state. Industry backers, meanwhile, touted the economic benefits of cheap gas and accused green groups of greatly exaggerating the threat. The hoopla eventually died down, but Dimock's water remained polluted. Fresh contamination cases have been reported as recently as December. One of the best-known pollution cases ever to emerge from the U.S. drilling and fracking boom has entered a difficult new phase as prosecutors pursue criminal charges against Pennsylvania's most prolific gas driller — and push for a settlement they say could yield more significant benefits for affected homeowners than a conviction. But the option prosecutors recently discussed has put them at odds with some residents who reject individual water treatment systems as inadequate and unworkable. These residents want to be hooked up to public water — itself a controversial idea in their rural community, one that state environmental officials talked up more than a decade ago but ultimately abandoned.
There are millions of orphaned gas and oil wells leaking methane in the U.S. — plugging them will cost billions -- The first U.S. oil well was drilled in Pennsylvania more than 150 years ago. Millions more followed, dotting the country from Southern California to Texas, Oklahoma and Appalachia. But those wells don't last forever. In fact, a well only produces a significant quantity of natural gas for between 20 to 40 years. After that, the company that owns the well is supposed to plug it with cement to prevent it from releasing methane into the air and leaking contaminants into the groundwater or at the surface. But it's an expensive process, costing thousands of dollars for onshore wells and millions for offshore wells. Oil giants like Chevron and ExxonMobil have the funds to plug their wells. But small, less well-financed operators often can't afford to do so. Others go bankrupt, leaving wells "orphaned," and then the plugging responsibility falls to the government. Steve Feldgus, the deputy assistant secretary for Land and Minerals Management at the U.S. Department of the Interior, says that there's no way to estimate the exact number of the country's orphaned wells. "States have counted about 130,000, but the [federal Environmental Protection Agency] estimates there might be as many as two million or more. And a lot of these are very old wells where the recordkeeping isn't very good, and we just don't know exactly where they are," he said. States go out and look for more, and "they keep finding them." Historically, states haven't had the resources to deal with the magnitude of the problem. But now, President Biden's $1 trillion infrastructure bill is devoting serious money — $4.7 billion — to addressing the issue.About 9 million Americans live within a mile of a documented orphan well, which can pose both an environmental hazard as well as an eyesore."A lot of these orphan wells are, you know, either a pipe sticking out of the ground, which creates their own danger, or it can come with a whole set of old oil and gas infrastructure — tanks, pumpjacks, things that are just left behind to rust," Feldgus said.Many of these old wells are also leaking methane, a particularly potent greenhouse gas that has over 80 times the global-warming potential of carbon dioxide over a 20-year period.
Bill that would boost DEP Office of Oil and Gas funding passes WV Senate -The West Virginia Senate has passed a bill designed to boost funding for the state’s cash-strapped oil and gas well inspection unit. The Senate green-lit Senate Bill 480 in a 25-8 vote Monday, advancing the measure to the House of Delegates. SB 480 has been estimated to restore the o¨ce’s inspector-to-well ratio to roughly 4,000-to-1 by imposing a $100 annual oversight fee for unplugged wells that produce 10,000 cubic feet or more of gas per day. The number of inspectors in the state Department of Environmental Protection’s O¨ce of Oil and Gas responsible for monitoring oil and natural gas drilling, storage and production statewide has fallen from 17 to nine. The offce needs $1.3 million more annually just to get back to previous staffing levels that well safety proponents say were already inadequate, a shortfall driven by its main revenue pipeline — permit fees — drying up amid oil and gas industry struggles. Senate Energy, Industry and Mining Committee Chairman Randy Smith, R-Tucker, said on the Senate floor prior to SB 480’s passage that he favored it over another bill aimed at bolstering Office of Oil and Gas funding, SB 613, because the latter was severance tax-based, whereas SB 480 is based on production.
Mountain Valley facing ‘greater uncertainty,’ lead partner in pipeline project says - The Mountain Valley Pipeline is facing what it calls “greater uncertainty” after losing two crucial permits and the confidence of one of its five corporate partners. Yet developers of the natural gas pipeline are not giving up, they said Tuesday in a conference call with financial analysts. “We’re all hands on deck to find the right path forward for MVP,” said Thomas Karam, chairman and chief executive officer of Equitrans Midstream Corp., the venture’s lead partner. Mountain Valley, which had hoped to complete the often-delayed project by this summer, no longer expects that to happen. Karam said the company will release more details after discussions with government agencies responsible for permitting the pipeline and its partners, which include a subsidiary of RGC Resources, the parent company of Roanoke Gas Co. On Friday, NextEra Energy of Florida — which has a nearly one-third partnership in the $6.2 billion project — said in a U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission filing that it was re-evaluating its role. “The continued legal and regulatory challenges have resulted in a very low probability of pipeline completion,” the filing stated. In late January and early February, the 4th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals struck down two government approvals for the pipeline: a permit that allowed it to cross through the Jefferson National Forest and an opinion that its construction would not jeopardize endangered species. Karam called the decisions “in our view, wrong,” and said they represent a “significant departure from traditional judicial deference” that is afforded to government agencies. The rulings will make it more difficult for Mountain Valley and other needed infrastructure projects to move forward, he said. Since the project was proposed in 2014, it has faced fierce opposition from both community groups and national environmental organizations, which say building such a large pipeline across steep slopes and through clear-running streams will harm natural resources. The route of the 303-mile buried pipeline cuts though Southwest Virginia, taking it north of Blacksburg and southwest of Roanoke. Muddy runoff from construction sites has flowed into nearby streams, threatening endangered species and drinking water, critics say, while the burning of natural gas if the pipeline is completed will worsen a growing climate crisis.
Equitrans says it's still committed to Mountain Valley Pipeline but completion date uncertain - The developer behind the Mountain Valley Pipeline told investors Tuesday that the company is still committed to completing the embattled project but is unsure when it will enter service due to repeated judicial rulings stripping it of necessary permits. While recent decisions by the U.S. 4th Circuit Court of Appeals “are in our view wrong and represent a significant departure from traditional judicial deference,” they “elevate the uncertainty around our ability to bring MVP to completion,” said Equitrans Midstream CEO Tom Karam on a year-end earnings call Tuesday. “Obviously we are no longer targeting a summer 2022 in-service” date, said Karam. Asked by an investor whether 2023 is “still on the table right now” as a possible date for the pipeline entering operation, Karam said that “I can’t give you any timing.”Fourth quarter results released by the company ahead of Tuesday’s call also noted that “due to the evolving regulatory and legal environment for pipeline construction and ongoing challenges,” project backers are “evaluating the MVP Southgate project … including potential changes to the project design and timing.” The 303-mile Mountain Valley Pipeline would stretch from West Virginia to Pittsylvania County, Virginia, where the Southgate Extension would then connect to carry gas into North Carolina. In December, Virginia’s State Air Pollution Control Board denied MVP a key air permit for a compressor station planned to support the Southgate extension. North Carolina has also twice denied the pipeline a necessary water permit. Earlier this month, the 4th Circuit overturned a critical approval for the main pipeline from the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service on the grounds that the agency hadn’t adequately evaluated the pipeline’s impact on several endangered species. The ruling was the second time the court had questioned the project’s Fish and Wildlife permit, and it followed a January decision yanking MVP’s Forest Service and Bureau of Land Management approvals. In the wake of the rulings, uncertainty over Mountain Valley Pipeline’s future has grown among investors. Last week, NextEra Energy revealed in filings with the Securities Exchange Commission that it was writing down $800 million of its investment in the project and that it had “determined that the continued legal and regulatory challenges have resulted in a very low probability of pipeline completion.” Financial analysts on Tuesday’s call also showed doubts about whether the project will be completed, asking questions about scenarios “if MVP doesn’t survive” or “where we’re not able to go forward on MVP.”
Why the Mountain Valley Pipeline Matters - Competitive Enterprise Institute - In what came as a surprise to few, if any, observers, the proposed Mountain Valley Pipeline has hit another judicial setback that will delay its completion date and could conceivably kill it off. It is yet one more roadblock in getting the Appalachian region’s surplus of natural gas to population centers on the East Coast, where it is needed.It is becoming difficult and bordering on impossible for major energy projects to navigate all the relevant federal statutes, such as the National Environmental Policy Act, Clean Water Act, and Endangered Species Act. This includes Mountain Valley’s proposed 303 miles of 42-inch pipeline carrying natural gas from West Virginia to Virginia. Years of developing the required Environmental Impact Statement (EIS) are followed by court challenges, a revised EIS, additional challenges on other grounds, and on and on. It was already enough of a chore to get a project approved during the generally pro-pipeline Trump administration, but now it is even harder under President Biden’s extreme appointees at the Department of Interior, Council on Environmental Quality, and other relevant agencies. This is particularly true of any projects related the fossil fuels (coal, oil, natural gas), as the administration and environmental activists seek to tie up such projects in red tape. The climate change-justified roadblocks may get even worse under new policy guidance from the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission, or FERC, which must approve natural gas pipelines that cross state lines. Essentially, pipeline developers have to go undefeated through multiple legal challenges costing millions of dollars over many years. Little wonder few are succeeding and fewer are even trying.According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, the Appalachian region has the potential to increase output but is limited by a lack of pipeline capacity. Any additional natural gas supply would be much in demand on the East Coast, which is currently suffering shortages and high winter heating prices. Some could also be used to increase exports of liquefied natural gas, or LNG, to America’s European and Asian allies and thus reduce their reliance on natural gas from Russia.
Reckless Decision': Biden Administration Adds Climate Roadblocks for Future Pipelines, Energy Projects - The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) announced that it will begin to “undertake a robust consideration” of the environmental justice impacts of such fossil fuel projects before granting approval, according to a fact sheet published Thursday. The agency, which is the top regulator of domestic natural gas infrastructure, said its new policy will presume projects that cause 100,000 metric tons of carbon dioxide per year will have a significant impact on the environment. In a major departure from its past policy, the FERC may also consider the eventual emissions caused by both upstream production and eventual burning of gas transported in a pipeline requiring approval. “I believe today’s long overdue policy statements are essential to ensuring the Commission’s natural gas siting decisions are reflective of all stakeholder concerns and interests,” FERC Chairman Rich Glick said in a statement. “We have witnessed the impact on pipeline projects when federal agencies, including the Commission, fail to fulfill their statutory responsibilities assessing the potential effects of a project on the environment, landowners and communities.”The announcement Thursday marked the first time the commission updated its natural gas policy since 1999. House Energy and Commerce Committee Chairman Frank Pallone applauded the policy change, saying it was “necessary and long-overdue.”“For far too long, FERC has allowed private pipeline developers to call the shots, while cutting those affected by the projects out of the process,” Natural Resources Defense Council senior attorney Gillian Giannetti said in a statement. “Communities and landowners will now have a say before new pipelines cut across their land or new compressor stations are built near their homes.”“FERC will now need to follow through and permanently establish a meaningful climate test for pipelines,” she added.But the new policy also attracted criticism from both Democratic and Republican lawmakers.“Today’s reckless decision by FERC’s Democratic Commissioners puts the security of our nation at risk,” Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee Chairman Joe Manchin said in a statement. “The Commission went too far by prioritizing a political agenda over their main mission – ensuring our nation’s energy reliability and security.”“The only thing they accomplished today was constructing additional road blocks that further delay building out the energy infrastructure our country desperately needs,” he added.
Williams eyes Haynesville Shale as growth driver, certified gas opportunity: executives - Midstream operator Williams sees the Haynesville Shale as a major source of growth, both from a gathering perspective and as "wellhead to water" corridor to transport certified gas to LNG exporters hungry for lower emissions feedgas, executives said Feb. 22. "We've been rapidly expanding our Haynesville system to support the growth we see from existing and new customers in the basin, including significant volume growth," Chad Zamarin, senior vice president of corporate strategic development, said during company's fourth-quarter earnings call. Beyond infrastructure, the company has plans to help add more than 300 MMcf/d of new production in the basin by the end of 2022, through a joint-venture partnership with private equity-backed Haynesville producer GeoSouthern Energy. Williams entered into the GeoSouthern partnership to drive more volumes into its Haynesville midstream assets, Zamarin said. GeoSouthern has brought two rigs into operation on the acreage in recent weeks, with plans to soon mobilize a third. First production is expected in the second quarter of 2022, with gas production expected to ramp up to 350 MMcf/d by the end of the year. The company also sees the potential to grow its presence in the Haynesville through consolidation, Zamarin said. "We'll consider opportunities that further enhance our footprint, create more capacity optimization opportunities and enable us to aggregate even more responsibly sourced gas supplies that we can direct to premium markets," Zamarin said. A key pillar of Williams' strategy in the Haynesville involves connecting the basin's growing supply of certified gas, also known as responsibly sourced gas or RSG, with nearby LNG exporters. "We are very focused on positioning ourselves to have the infrastructure that can export responsibly sourced gas from key US basins and get those to these LNG facilities," CEO Alan Armstrong said. "And so we really think we're going to be an important player, not in the ownership of the actual LNG facility, but a lot of the key infrastructure that it's going to take to deliver this gas and to be able to do it with a responsibly sourced gas certificate." As of Feb. 22, Haynesville producers had completed third-party certification on 1.2 Bcf/d of gas. Public producer commitments total 6.2 Bcf/d by the end of 2022, around 45% of year-to-date daily average Haynesville production. Williams intends to connect this supply of certified gas to potential LNG buyers through a combination of existing and proposed infrastructure. Around 75% of proposed LNG export terminals are located along Transco's path, Armstrong noted. For new infrastructure, the company has proposed the 2 Bcf/d Louisiana Energy Gateway project, which would gather certified gas from multiple Haynesville producers and transport it south to the Gulf Coast.
A deep dive into the process, quirks, and idiosyncrasies of US natural gas pricing. - If you’re going to be involved in any aspect of U.S. natural gas, it’s critically important to understand how physical, futures, and forward gas markets work and how pricing is determined. That reality was emphasized almost exactly a year ago when physical spot prices for U.S. natural gas had their most volatile and bizarre weeks ever as Winter Storm Uri sent a blast of bitter-cold, icy weather down the middle of the country, wreaking havoc on gas infrastructure just when heating demand was at its highest. Prices in the Northeast, which normally see winter spikes, barely reacted, while prices across the Midcontinent and Texas rocketed to record-shattering levels, above $1,000/MMBtu. The events of the Deep Freeze of February 2021 have since brought renewed scrutiny to the various aspects of the gas and power markets, and a need among legislators, regulators and everyone who deals with energy commodity markets to understand how gas is traded in the U.S. and how prices are set. We’re here to help. So, in today’s RBN blog, we begin a deep dive into the process, quirks and idiosyncrasies of U.S. gas pricing.During Uri last February, on the same day that physical next-day (spot) prices at some gas trading locations trackedover $1,000/MMBtu, spot price settlements at the national benchmark Henry Hub went only as high as around $23/MMBtu, according to pricing data from our good friends at Natural Gas Intelligence (NGI). The exchange-traded futures market for next-month gas barely reacted, settling at a little over $3/MMBtu. Over-the-counter forward prices for regional hubs rose somewhat but were also relatively muted. By the time the market was scheduling physical gas for March, the panic had dissipated, and month-ahead prices were nowhere near the lofty levels seen for those few days in mid-February. These stark differences in prices have to do with what factors drive the various pricing mechanisms, their respective settlement or delivery periods, and when and how they are traded and used in the gas market. We will get to describing those in the next part of this deep dive. But before going there, we’ll take a trip in the way-back machine to see how these pricing systems even came to be in the U.S. gas market in the first place. The U.S. natural gas market is one of the most transparent, liquid, and efficient commodity markets in the world. Physical and financial trades are done directly between counterparties through one-on-one bilateral, negotiated transactions and also via open and transparent trading on organized/regulated exchanges like the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) and the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE). Physical trading is anchored by thousands of miles of gathering, interstate and intrastate transport, distribution pipeline networks, and well over 100 distinct trading locations across North America with location-specific price indices. A subset of the physical trades is reported to price reporting agencies (PRAs) like Natural Gas Intelligence (NGI), Platts and Argus, which then publish indices on a daily basis, and there are tough Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) rules around how prices get reported to those PRAs. Additionally, just about every company involved in the business of buying and selling physical natural gas is required to report their transaction volumes and pricing mechanisms in some detail to the FERC.
U.S. natgas gains on colder forecasts, European price spike (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures rose more than 1% on Tuesday, helped by forecasts for cooler weather and higher heating demand over the next two weeks and a 10% jump in European gas futures that could keep U.S. liquefied natural gas exports near record highs. Front-month gas futures for March delivery rose 6.7 cents, or 1.5%, to settle at $4.498 per million British thermal units (mmBtu). Data provider Refinitiv estimated 383 heating degree days (HDDs) over the next two weeks in the Lower 48 U.S. states. The normal is 358 HDDs for this time of year. Refinitiv projected average U.S. gas demand, including exports, would rise from 119.9 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) this week to 123.2 bcfd next week as temperatures drop. European prices rose as tensions between Russia and Ukraine escalated after Moscow ordered troops into two breakaway regions in eastern Ukraine. Britain on Tuesday imposed sanctions on Gennady Timchenko and two other billionaires with close links to Vladimir Putin, while Germany halted the Nord Stream 2 Baltic Sea gas pipeline project, designed to double the flow of Russian gas direct to Germany. The United States and Europe have said they would sanction Russia if it invaded Ukraine. This could prompt Russia to cut exports to Europe, where Russia provides around 30%-40% of gas supplies, about 16.3 bcfd in 2021. Refinitiv said the amount of gas flowing to U.S. LNG export plants has averaged 12.6 bcfd so far in February, which would top January's monthly record of 12.4 bcfd. Refinitiv said average gas output in the U.S. Lower 48 states fell from a record 97.3 bcfd in December to 94.0 bcfd in January and 93.2 bcfd so far in February, as cold weather froze oil and gas wells in several producing regions earlier in the new year.
Natural Gas Futures Rally Further Wednesday as Plunging Temperatures Lead to Freeze-Offs; Cold Ignited Cash - Natural gas futures rallied again midweek as sub-freezing temperatures descended into the Lower 48, resulting in a precipitous decline in production from freeze-offs. The March Nymex contract, which expires on Thursday, settled at $4.623/MMBtu, up 12.5 cents on the day. April climbed 13.2 cents to $4.593. Spot gas prices also gathered momentum, with plump increases in the Northeast driving NGI’s Spot Gas National Avg. up $1.175 to $5.710. Already in the green at the start of Wednesday’s trading session, the March Nymex futures contract rallied to a $4.704 intraday high as early data suggested that production had fallen by around 4 Bcf day/day. Bloomberg showed output near 91.4 Bcf, off 3.4%. The bulk of the decline occurred in the Midcontinent, where output tumbled 10% day/day. The Permian Basin also recorded a noteworthy 3% decrease. StoneX Financial Inc.’s Tom Saal told NGI the steep drop in production is “significant, especially in a market that is much tighter than it was a year ago.” Even though output may rebound quickly as conditions thaw, the gyrations in the U.S. gas market, he said, are now part of the everyday norm in the new $4.00 price environment. NatGasWeather said frigid air is seen persisting throughout the next week, with widespread rain, snow and overnight lows of minus 20s to 20s sweeping across the western, central and northern United States. Temperatures are expected to plummet into the 10s as far south as Texas and portions of the South. However, the overnight weather data once again lessened the intensity of a return cold shot this weekend into early next week. It also trended warmer for March 2-7 as comfortable conditions were seen gaining ground across much of the interior United States. The midday Global Forecast System (GFS), however, showed cool air lingering over the Great Lakes and East longer, according to NatGasWeather. In addition, it teased colder temperatures returning into the west-central and northern United States March 8-10, although the data was far from convincing.
US natural gas storage inventories decline 129 Bcf as winter demand slackens: EIA | S&P Global Platts - US natural gas inventories for the week ended Feb. 18 fell in line with market expectations, which was below the five-year average decline for the first time this year. Storage fields withdrew 129 Bcf, according to data released by the US Energy Information Administration on Feb. 24. Working gas inventories decreased to 1.782 Tcf. The storage deficit collapsed to 209 Bcf, or 10.5%, less than the year-ago level of 1.991 Tcf. The deficit to the five-year average narrowed to 214 Bcf. The withdrawal was in line with the 128 Bcf draw expected by an S&P Global Platts survey of analysts. Responses to the survey ranged from a 107 to 143 Bcf withdrawal. The draw was a fraction last year's massive 324 Bcf pull in the corresponding week. That week marked the second-largest withdrawal on record as the US experienced a severe winter storm. The storm knocked a sizable share of domestic production offline, exacerbating the draw on storage fields. The draw was also well below the week prior's 190 Bcf pull. US supply and demand fundamentals loosened considerably during the reference week as cold weather-driven demand subsided and production staged a significant rebound from the lows seen a week earlier. Total demand during the week ended Feb. 18 was down 9.3 Bcf/d week over week, according to Platts Analytics. The majority of the decline was driven by the residential-commercial sector, followed by smaller losses in the power generation and industrial sectors. LNG feedgas was the only demand fundamental to see a gain week over week, rising 500 MMcf/d. Upstream, total supplies were 3.2 Bcf/d higher on the week as production staged a nearly 4 Bcf/d rebound after tumbling a week earlier due to weather-driven freeze-offs. The thaw-out helped production not only recover from those declines but also return higher than before. The NYMEX Henry Hub March contract fell 5 cents to $4.57/MMBtu during late afternoon trading on Feb. 24. The upcoming summer strip, April through October, added 4 cents to average $4.71/MMBtu. Henry Hub futures prices were seen trading roughly 20 cents higher by mid-morning Feb. 24, with much of the run-up taking place even before the release of the Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report and likely being carried higher along with the large price movements in global energy markets stemming from the conflict in Ukraine. Market balances have trended tighter during the week in progress, setting the stage for a larger withdrawal for the week ended Feb. 25 which is currently estimated to be around the 150 Bcf mark, according to Platts Analytics.
U.S. natgas falls over 3% on lower demand forecasts, drop in European prices (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures fell more than 3% on Friday, weighed down by forecasts for lower demand over the next week and a sharp drop in European gas prices. On its first day as the front-month, April gas futures fell 17.1 cents, or 3.7%, to settle at $4.470 per million British thermal units (mmBtu). For the week, the contract is up 0.8%, after rising 12.4% last week. Data provider Refinitiv estimated 382 heating degree days (HDDs) over the next two weeks in the Lower 48 U.S. states, slightly lower from 384 HDDs estimated on Thursday. The normal is 338 HDDs for this time of year. With cold weather moderating, Refinitiv projected that average U.S. gas demand, including exports, would drop from 125.1 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) this week to 112.5 bcfd next week. Meanwhile, gas prices in Europe fell more than 30% after sharp gains the previous day on the Russian invasion of Ukraine and as auction results showed flows might resume westward through Russia's Yamal-Europe pipeline. Refinitiv said the amount of gas flowing to U.S. LNG export plants has averaged 12.4 bcfd so far in February, in line with January's monthly record of 12.4 bcfd. Average gas output in the U.S. Lower 48 states fell from a record 97.3 bcfd in December to 94.0 bcfd in January and 93.2 bcfd so far in February, as cold weather froze oil and gas wells in several producing regions earlier in the new year.
ArkLaTex natural gas industry could play important role in US response to Ukraine crisis - As the world watches the Russian invasion of Ukraine and possible ramifications of war, the local gas industry could play an important role in the crisis.Sanctions placed on Russia will have a major impact on Russian natural gas exports, which several European countries rely on.According to attorney Drew Burnham with Cook, Yancey, King & Galloway, the U.S. is in a better position to respond with its own exports."The federal government has been better about in recent months, over the last year probably, in encouraging greater export capacity in helping Europe," Burnham said.An important question is whether Europe will be open for business."Europe's ability to import natural gas has been restricted by its own import capacity. There's a lot of political pressure, especially from the left leaning political groups there to restrict the import capacity of natural gas there for reasons of promoting green energy," Burnham said.Burnham says there are already signs of a shift in direction among European leaders. This would put the local natural gas industry in a key position. "We're seeing incredible investment in our area for the production of natural gas. And it's becoming quite clear to the federal government, as it's been clear to many for a long time that our ability to export natural gas is a national security issue. It's a great tool in our arsenal to support peace around the world," Burnham said.
Kinder Morgan, TVA expanding gas pipeline across Dickson County – Houston-based oil and gas giant Kinder Morgan is pursuing a new pipeline across three Tennessee counties to deliver natural gas to the Tennessee Valley Authority’s Cumberland Fossil Plant and residents of Stewart, Dickson and Houston Counties question the necessity of the expansion, citing safety and environmental concerns.Kinder Morgan operates 83,000 miles of pipelines and 143 fuel terminals across the country. It is one of the nation’s largest shippers of crude oil, gasoline, natural gas, and carbon dioxide, claiming $16.6 billion in revenue and $70.4 billion in assets in 2021. The proposed project across Middle Tennessee adds a 32-mile branch to a 11,755-mile pipeline network that runs from Texas to New England operated by Kinder Morgan’s biggest subsidiary, Tennessee Gas Pipeline Company LLC.Open houses in Vanleer, Tenn., on Jan. 18 and Erin, Tenn., on Jan. 19, as well as a virtual open house on Jan. 27 were the first public-facing events since Kinder Morgan filed preliminary paperwork with the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) in late October. The project, referred to in company documentation as the “Cumberland Lateral,” will move through the state and federal permitting process with cooperation from TVA, currently facing scrutiny from Congress about its continued reliance on fossil fuels. The proposed expansion of gas infrastructure is an early indication of how TVA plans toreplace aging coal units across the state.Based on preliminary maps, the pipeline would run underneath TVA’s high voltage transmission lines, which cut a direct route from the Tennessee Gas Pipeline to Cumberland City. Kinder Morgan began approaching landowners with easement contracts last summer about the project. “The contract they gave me, I don’t think anyone would sign something like that. It was a frightening contract,” said Barbara Miller, a resident of White Bluff, near the origin of the pipeline. She is one of hundreds of landowners in the path of the pipeline. “It is just illogical to me, with the climate being as bad as it is, that they would even consider this. They are presenting it as our first option. I may not be able to stop them, but I won’t just let it happen.”
Louisiana Marathon oil refinery explosion rocks Garyville; 1 injured --An explosion rocked a Louisiana oil refinery Monday, shaking homes and businesses as firefighters raced to douse the resulting blaze. One person was injured after the blast, heard for miles around, around 9:30 a.m. local time at the refinery in Garyville, Marathon Petroleum said in a statement. Video showed smoke billowing from the site. Garyville is about 40 miles west of New Orleans and 50 miles southeast of Baton Rouge. "The fire has been controlled, and all employees and contract workers have been accounted for," company spokesman Joe Gannon said. "One contract worker sustained an injury and is currently being evaluated at a local health care facility as a precaution." Air monitoring was deployed in the community, and emergency responders were notified, Gannon said. The state Department of Environmental Quality said some of the refinery was placed under a shelter-in-place order, and some workers were moved to a closed area to avoid contamination. The explosion and the fire were contained on Marathon property. The refinery, on the banks of the Mississippi River, has a crude oil refining capacity of 578,000 barrels per day, according to the company's website. A major expansion project was completed in 2009 that increased Garyville’s crude oil refining capacity, making it one of the largest refineries in the USA.
Marathon’s Huge Louisiana Refinery Rocked by Explosion, Fire — Marathon Petroleum Corp.’s oil refinery near New Orleans exploded into flames on Monday, threatening to crimp fuel supplies and raise pump prices at a time of already rampant inflation. The company’s Garyville, Louisiana, plant is one of the nation’s largest and a key supplier of gasoline, diesel and other fuels. Marathon said five people were injured. The blaze that started around 9:30 a.m. local time was declared extinguished about 4 1/2 hours later. The fire occurred in a hydrocracker, according to a person familiar with the operation, a crucial price of equipment that breaks heavy petroleum molecules down into lighter products such as diesel. If any damages are significant enough to halt production at the Garyville complex, regional fuel supplies may be stretched. Benchmark gasoline futures rose 1.6% on news of the fire. Demand has been on the rise at a time when more than 10% of Gulf Coast refining capacity already is idle for repairs and other maintenance work. Retail gasoline prices have climbed 7.5% this year, adding to 2021’s 46% advance, according to AAA. The last time prices were this high was the summer of 2014, when international oil prices were above $100 a barrel.
Explosion at huge Louisiana refinery; 6 minor injuries -(AP) — A huge Louisiana refinery was rocked by an explosion and fire Monday. Marathon Petroleum Corp. said six workers suffered minor injuries. Officials later gave the all-clear sign, but it was not immediately clear what caused the morning blast at the Marathon Petroleum Corp. plant in Garyville, between New Orleans and Baton Rouge. Six contract workers were injured, Marathon spokesperson Joe Gannon said in an emailed statement. He said three were treated at the plant and three were treated and released at a health care facility where they were taken as a precaution. “The safety of responders, employees, contractors, and the community are our top priority, and we will conduct a full investigation to determine the cause of the fire,” he wrote. According to Marathon’s website, the facility along the Mississippi River has a refining capacity of 578,000 barrels per calendar day, making it one of the largest in the country.
Texas oil refinery workers ratify Exxon labor contract offer (Reuters) -Union workers locked out of their jobs at a Texas oil refinery for nearly 10 months voted on Monday to accept an Exxon Mobil Corp contract offer, ceding to a key company demand that it have the right to determine plant assignments. About 600 United Steelworkers union members at the 369,024 barrel-per-day (bpd) refinery and Mobil 1 motor oil plant were locked out May 1 to preclude a wildcat strike, Exxon has said. The Beaumont, Texas, facility has continued to run since with managers and temporary workers. The contract allows Exxon to decide all assignments, an issue that led to a rejection vote in October. A quarter of assignments previously were determined by worker seniority. The contract also adds Martin Luther King Jr. Day as a paid holiday. Exxon said it was "thrilled" by the vote, adding employees would return to work "as soon as safely possible." The contract was made effective from Feb. 1, 2021. The six-year contract was approved by a vote of 214 to 133, according to USW International representative Bryan Gross. "The membership decided to accept the offer after 10 months of a fight," Gross said. "The company started the lockout; they can end it at any time." USW local 13-243 intends to continue with an unfair labor practices complaint, Gross said. The USW has alleged Exxon imposed the lockout to force removal of the union. Also to be decided is whether the USW will continue to represent the plant's hourly workers. The U.S. National Labor Relations Board (NLRB) oversaw a vote in November and December on removing the USW, a move sought by 30% of union members.m
US projected to give up net oil exporter status this year -- The United States is projected to lose its status as a net petroleum exporter this year as refiners and other customers seek out more product from elsewhere amid ballooning demand. This change in trade dynamics would disrupt what the Energy Information Administration described as the "historic shift" that took place in 2020, when the U.S. became a net exporter of petroleum products due to its strong production output and the effects the COVID-19 pandemic had on oil markets. "During 2020, COVID-19 mitigation efforts caused a drop in oil demand within the United States and internationally. International petroleum prices decreased in response to less consumption, which diminished incentives for key petroleum-exporting countries to increase production," the EIA said in detailing data from its recent Short-Term Energy Outlook. Now, demand is back, and the U.S. is expected to bring in an average of 3.9 million barrels of oil per day on an average basis for the year, building on the 19% growth in net crude oil imports in 2021. Jacques Rousseau, a managing director at ClearView Energy Partners, said the trade balance is largely determined by what refiners want. "U.S. refiners want more oil, but they don't necessarily want the oil produced in the United States," Rousseau said. "The U.S. produces mostly light oil, and many U.S. refiners prefer to process heavier oils.”
Plains All American Gets Back in Black as Oil Demand, Permian Activity Mount - Plains All American Pipeline LP said a rebound in oil demand and a corresponding jump in Permian Basin crude production bolstered its fourth quarter and full-year 2021 earnings, and the company expects continued momentum in the prolific region through this year and beyond. s The Houston-based company’s management team told analysts that the Permian, where Plains is focused, closed out 2021 producing roughly 5 million b/d, with crude output up about 540,000 b/d over year-end 2020. Plains expects the basin to add about 600,000 b/d annually for the next several years. CEO Willie Chiang noted during the fourth quarter earnings conference call earlier this month that crude demand had nearly returned to pre-pandemic levels by the end of 2021 – after a bruising 2020 – and that both U.S. and global oil prices had increased about 50%, recently hovering above $90/bbl. Plains, which owns and operates midstream infrastructure and provides logistics services for crude and natural gas delivery, said the surge in Permian activity boosted demand for its services. This, in turn, fueled a revenue revival. Its fourth quarter top line more than doubled to $13 billion from a year earlier, while its full-year revenue soared 80% to $42 billion.
Energy Transfer Eyes Adding Natural Gas Takeaway from Permian - Energy Transfer LP is gauging the interest of potential customers as it weighs building a natural gas pipeline from the Permian Basin to the Gulf Coast, management said during its fourth quarter and full-year 2021 earnings call with analysts. Citing “the growing need for additional natural gas takeaway from the Permian Basin,” co-CEO Tom Long said the project under consideration would combine new and existing pipelines to serve coastal gas hubs. A 260-mile newbuild pipeline would extend eastward from the Midland sub-basin along existing rights-of-way, interconnecting with Energy Transfer’s existing 36-inch pipeline near Fort Worth, TX, management said. “From there, it would interconnect with our existing assets with available capacity…to markets at Carthage, as well as to Katy, Beaumont, and the Houston Ship Channel and other markets along the Gulf Coast, including deliveries” to the Gillis and Henry hubs, Long said. The “bottom line is we will take Permian Basin molecules and deliver them to the best markets on the Gulf Coast,” said co-CEO Mackie McCrea. He told analysts the proposed project’s targeted gas takeaway capacity would be between 1.5 and 2 Bcf/d. “Given the proposed route and our ability to utilize existing assets, we believe we could complete construction…in two years or less” after taking a final investment decision, said Long. Energy Transfer also reported that it broke ground earlier this year on another project: the expected 1.65-Bcf/d-capacity Gulf Run Pipeline, which will carry natural gas from the Haynesville Shale to the Gulf Coast. The 135-mile interstate pipeline is backed by a 20-year, 1.1 Bcfd commitment by cornerstone shipper Golden Pass LNG LLC, Long said. In addition to the committed Golden Pass capacity, “we’ve got about 500-plus” Mcf/d of gas transport capacity “that we’re looking to sell. We’re aggressively tying that into our conversations for those producers that would like to reach the markets at the end of the Gulf Run,” said McCrea. Enable Midstream Partners LP, which Energy Transfer acquired in December, proposed Gulf Run in 2018. Long said construction on Gulf Run “is expected to be completed by the end of 2022.”
Permian, Haynesville Activity Climbs as US Drilling Total Continues Ascent - Owing to further growth in the Haynesville Shale and the Permian Basin, the U.S. rig count continued its upward climb during the week ended Friday (Feb. 25), adding five units to end at 650, according to the latest tally from Baker Hughes Co. Three natural gas-directed rigs and two oil-directed rigs were added in the United States for the week. That left the combined domestic tally nearly 250 units ahead of its year-earlier count of 402, according to the BKR numbers, which are based partly on data from Enverus. Land drilling increased by five units in the United States, while the Gulf of Mexico count remained unchanged at 12. Four horizontal units were added alongside one vertical rig, with directional units unchanged week/week. The Canadian rig count climbed four units overall to finish the week at 224, up from 163 in the year-earlier period. Net gains there included three oil-directed rigs and one miscellaneous rig. Broken down by major region, the Permian and Haynesville each added three rigs week/week, growing their respective counts to 309 and 61. The Cana Woodford added two rigs for the period, while the Mississippian Lime added one. The Granite Wash, meanwhile, saw two rigs exit for the period to drop its total to three. In the state-by-state count, BKR recorded a four-rig gain in Texas for the week, with Kansas, Louisiana and New Mexico each adding one rig to their respective totals. Oklahoma saw a two-rig decrease for the week, lowering its total to 51 overall, versus 17 in the year-ago period, BKR data show.
How Greenhouse Gases Released by the Oil and Gas Industry Far Exceed What Regulators Think They Know - —Wayne Christian wanted to brag, he said, rocking in his burgundy leather chair atop the dais of the powerful Railroad Commission of Texas. Colleagues and staff were doing “a darn good job,” and people who “gripe about the environmental issues” were misinformed. The self-congratulatory pause came during an October meeting of the agency that oversees a more than $400 billion oil and gas industry in the top-producing state of the top-producing country on a rapidly warming planet. Christian, a former Grammy-nominated gospel singer, complained that negative media reports had obscured “the good job our staff and this industry has done for a cleaner environment, the cleanest industrialized nation on the planet.” Then the chairman and his two fellow elected commissioners returned to their agenda and, without debate, approved 39 more requests from oil and gas companies seeking permission to burn off or vent natural gas that’s rich in methane, a powerful greenhouse gas. Over much of the last decade, oil and gas operators in Texas and a dozen other U.S. states have flared, or burned off, at least 3.5 trillion cubic feet of natural gas, according to an analysis of satellite data by the Howard Center for Investigative Journalism. That’s the greenhouse gas emissions equivalent of nearly 42 million cars driving for a year. The industry has also directly released unknown amounts of gas into the atmosphere through a process called venting. Between them, flaring and venting release a noxious cocktail of carbon dioxide, methane and other pollutants. Climate scientists have warned that without steep, immediate reductions in emissions of carbon dioxide and methane, the world will miss its chance to avert the deadliest and most destructive effects of climate change, which is already contributing to unprecedented wildfires, floods and other natural disasters across the planet. Epidemiologists have also linked flaring emissions to preterm births. Flaring has surged alongside the fracking boom that’s helped producers unlock previously unreachable fossil fuels and boosted local, state and national economies over the last decade and a half. The United States now produces enough oil and natural gas to be energy independent, its volumes surpassing Saudi Arabia and Russia. While companies sometimes flare and vent to relieve dangerous pressure buildups or perform equipment maintenance, cost is another motivator. Natural gas is far less profitable than oil, and it’s often cheaper for companies to get rid of the gas associated with operations than to transport and process it for sale. Regardless of the reasons, every act of flaring and venting releases methane, which traps heat 80 times more effectively than carbon dioxide over a 20-year period, making methane reduction one of the fastest routes to reducing global warming, experts say.
Oil and Gas Companies ‘Flare’ or ‘Vent’ Excess Natural Gas. It’s Like Burning Money—and it’s Bad for the Environment - When companies flare, they do more than burn natural gas. They burn money. Every year, U.S. oil and gas companies set fire to billions of cubic feet of natural gas and directly vent an additional unknown amount. These processes, known as flaring and venting, don’t just waste resources; they also pollute the atmosphere with hazardous, global-warming gases, such as methane. Companies argue that they flare and vent for safety and maintenance and because selling or reusing the gas is not financially feasible. The industry and its regulators even refer to this gas as “waste.” But experts say a valuable resource is being squandered because of weak regulations, ineffective tracking of flaring and venting, and a lack of economic incentives to capture and sell the gas. “The atmosphere is a free dumping place,” said Robert L. Kleinberg, senior research scholar at the Center on Global Energy Policy at Columbia University. “It’s like throwing garbage out the window back in the Middle Ages.”
Are U.S. Shale Firms Spending Enough On New Oil Projects? -The overwhelming majority of analysts expect oil prices to continue climbing, with Brent widely expected to top $100 per barrel by the end of this year. Prices at the pump are also rising, but this time it will take more than an SPR release for the Biden administration to curtail. And help is not coming. Gas prices are a sensitive matter for any administration. Just how sensitive they have become for the Biden administration was made clear last year when the U.S. President first asked and then insisted that OPEC increase its production of crude oil to boost supply at a time when it was falling well short of supply.OPEC, however, did not respond to the demands, forcing the White House to consider turning to the local oil industry—an industry it had demonstrated from the very beginning that it would not befriend. But there are needs, and Biden did discuss the oil supply situation with U.S. oil companies last year. This did not, however, lead to anything particularly productive. The rig count is rising, for sure, but it is not rising anywhere near fast enough to dampen retail fuel prices.Under normal circumstances, the oil industry would have responded to higher oil prices by increasing production, especially in shale, where this increase could be implemented a lot more quickly than in conventional oil fields. These are not normal circumstances, however. The oil industry is under pressure from shareholders, regulators, and the very government to not produce more oil because there is an energy transition underway, and we need to put a stop to our oil addiction.Despite abundant evidence that demand for oil and gas, even coal, is still quite robust, the pressure is paying off in that U.S. oil companies are now prioritizing returns to shareholders rather than growth. And they appear adamant that they will not change these priorities even if Brent hits not $100 but $200.“Whether it's $150 oil, $200 oil, or $100 oil, we're not going to change our growth plans," Pioneer Natural Resources' chief executive Scott Sheffield told Bloomberg in an interview last week. "If the president wants us to grow, I just don't think the industry can grow anyway."Also last week, Devon Energy's Rick Muncrief told the Financial Times, "In the back of everyone's minds is, 'When is it going to be [production] growth? . . . We have investors saying 'My gosh, if not now, when?' But for everyone saying that there's at least one other if not two others waiting to say, 'Gotcha! We knew that discipline would be shortlived.' We have learned our lesson."Speaking to Bloomberg in a separate interview, Muncrief also said, "We've had enough head fakes that we're going to be very thoughtful in ramping activity up. Let's face it: we all are recovering in one way or another from this pandemic. We're just slowly getting healthier and healthier over time, but you don't get there overnight."It's not just the desire to keep shareholders happy or take their time to fully recover that is motivating restraint. According to some, sizeable growth is physically impossible for most parts of the shale patch, even at these higher prices because the low-cost, economically viable drilling spots are running out. At the same time, higher costs resulting from inflation and continued shortages in some segments are adding pain to the industry, further motivating it to keep it cautious and wait with growth plans.
Frackers Push Into Once-Dead Shale Patches as Oil Nears $100 a Barrel -- Spurred by the highest oil prices in years, shale companies are moving drilling rigs back into oil fields that were all but abandoned a few years ago.Private oil producers are leading an industry return to places like the Anadarko Basin of Oklahoma and the DJ Basin in Colorado, where drilling had almost completely stopped in mid-2020 when those areas became unprofitable because of lower oil prices. Oil production in these marginal regions isn’t expected to move the needle in the global market, which is facing tight supplies, but it could help some oil producers who have lost money in past years. Output in the contiguous U.S. by year-end is expected to increase almost solely from the Permian Basin of West Texas and New Mexico, offset by declines elsewhere, according to energy consultant Wood Mackenzie. Some of the largest shale companies told investors this past week they plan to remain disciplined on capital spending and limit production growth. But with oil climbing above $90 a barrel, near the highest levels in more than seven years, some peripheral drilling, particularly by smaller companies, is now becoming more feasible even in places like Kansas and Utah, where wells produce far less oil than prolific fields in Texas and New Mexico. The regional revivals show the economic ripple effects when prices surge and mark a turnaround for companies hard-hit by the pandemic. Brent, the global oil benchmark, rose to $95.39 a barrel Monday, up almost 2%. Putting drilling rigs back to work in the Anadarko Basin wouldn’t have made sense when oil prices were around $45 a barrel or lower in 2020, with some companies needing at least $60-per-barrel oil, or even $80 a barrel, to increase investments, executives said. The average number of active drilling rigs in the Anadarko Basin has surged from the pandemic low of seven to 46, according to energy data analytics firm Enverus. The latest number is several more than the region had before oil prices collapsed because of economic shutdowns in the spring of 2020, and almost double the average of mid-2021. In the DJ Basin in Colorado, the average number of active rigs has risen to 15, up from four in 2020, Enverus data show. In the Powder River Basin in Wyoming and the Uinta Basin in Utah, which both saw rigs fall to zero in mid-2020, the rig count has increased to almost a dozen. All three areas need higher oil prices to make wells profitable.
Higher barrel of oil price could up Kansas crude production(KSNW) – There are no guarantees in life. But some oil producers say there may be more exploration in Kansas with oil prices where they are now.And that could mean jobs. Chris Toy with Knighton Oil Company in Wichita says the pandemic hit the oil and gas industry in Kansas like many other areas of the economy. “It’s going to take a while to unwind the pricing and the lack of manpower and the supply chain issues that we’ve had over the last 18 months,” said Toy. Both Toy and Kansas State University’s assistant professor of Geology, Behzad Ghanbarian, say COVID-19 hit the supply chain hard. But oil production in Kansas has jobs coming back.“Which means so many job opportunities in the past couple of years. Definitely, the pandemic impacted us in Kansas with oil and gas,” said Ghanbarian. “The 2020-2021 demand was down. Now that restrictions are going away, demand is up again.”
Federal court ruling delays U.S. oil and gas drilling permits — Permits to drill for oil and gas on U.S. public land will be delayed after a federal judge ruled against the Biden administration’s estimates of the social costs of greenhouse gas emissions, the Interior Department said Saturday. At issue is a 2021 executive order directing federal agencies weighing environmental permitting and regulatory decisions to consider a metric for estimating the societal costs from carbon dioxide associated with those moves. A Louisiana-based federal district judge last week blocked federal agencies from using that “social cost of carbon” plan, following a lawsuit by Louisiana and other states challenging the way it was imposed. The Biden administration could rely on a higher social cost of carbon to justify moves against fossil fuels and to counter climate change. But because the court ruling bars the federal government from adopting or relying on the metric, in the short term it upsets current work on federal drilling permits as well as new regulations. For instance, the Interior Department said the injunction is expected to lead to delays in permitting and leasing for federal oil and gas programs. “The Interior Department continues to move forward with reforms to address the significant shortcomings in the nation’s onshore and offshore oil and gas programs,” the agency said. “Specifically, the Department is committed to ensuring its programs account for climate impacts, provide a fair return to taxpayers, discourage speculation, hold operators responsible for remediation, and more fully include communities, tribal, state and local governments in decision-making.” The court’s ruling will have wide impact across the federal government, as the Biden administration moves to counter climate change and advance environmental rules. In a filing Saturday, the Justice Department said the social cost of the carbon decision will affect 21 rules being developed at the Energy Department, five at the Environmental Protection Agency, nine at the Transportation Department and three at the Interior Department. That includes a $2.3 billion Federal Transportation Administration grant program and a draft Interior Department rule to combat methane emissions and the waste of natural gas from wells on federal land, the administration said.
Biden Administration Halts New Drilling in Legal Fight Over Climate Costs - The Interior Department is pausing new federal oil and gas leases and permits after a judge blocked the government from weighing the cost of climate damage in decisions.— The Biden administration is indefinitely freezing decisions about new federal oil and gas drilling as part of a legal brawl with Republican-led states that could significantly impact President Biden’s plans to tackle climate change. The move, which came Saturday, was a response to a recent federal ruling that blocked the way the Biden administration was calculating the real cost of climate change, a figure that guides a range of government decisions, from pollution regulation to whether to permit new oil, gas or coal extraction on public lands and in federal waters. Under President Barack Obama, the government estimated that the damage from wildfires, floods and rising sea levels was $51 for every ton of carbon dioxide generated by burning fossil fuels. President Donald J. Trump lowered that number considerably, setting it at $7 or less per ton. Upon taking office, Mr. Biden revived the $51 level and set about updating it further — work that is underway. Known as the “social cost of carbon,” the metric is designed to underline the potential economic threats from greenhouse gas emissions so they can be compared to the economic benefits from acts like oil drilling. Economists and climate scientists say it is needed because climate-fueled heat waves, storms, wildfires and flooding already cost the United States billions of dollars annually but those costs are often not taken into account by policymakers. Factoring in those costs could make it harder for fossil fuel projects to win federal approval. But 10 Republican-led states sued the government, and on Feb. 11, Judge James D. Cain Jr. of the U.S. District Court for the Western District of Louisiana found that the Biden administration’s calculations “artificially increase the cost estimates” of oil and gas drilling. Judge Cain, a Trump appointee, said using the social cost of carbon in decision-making would harm his native Louisiana and other energy producing states. He issued an injunction preventing the administration from considering the metric. The Justice Department said it intends to appeal.
Environmentalists Claim Line 5 Tunnel Would Have Large Climate Consequences - Climate experts are presenting evidence to the Michigan Public Service Commission on why the proposed tunnel for Enbridge’s Line 5 pipeline would have a huge impact on the environment. It’s being seen as a huge milestone for environmentalist groups. “This is really history making, because for the first time in Michigan, the potential climate impacts of a proposed project, a fossil fuel infrastructure, are being considered during a hearing under the Michigan Environmental Protection Act,” said Kate Madigan, executive director of Michigan Climate Action Network. Madigan said denying the permit for a tunnel, as well as putting Line 5 out of commission, would be a step in the right direction. “We all know that we want to be moving into the future, there are lots of jobs in the future, it’s a cleaner future, and we’re also solving the climate crisis by moving faster in that direction as well,” said Madigan. Madigan further stated that if Enbridge is allowed to build a tunnel in the Straits of Mackinac, there could be a severe impact on the environment. “Allowing a line five tunnel would result in climate emissions, equal to about 10 coal power plants every year, or the exhaust from about six million cars every year,” explained Madigan.
Canadian Report Poses Alternatives to Line 5 Pipelines - New research from Environmental Defence Canada makes the case that there's a path forward to shutting down the Line 5 dual pipelines, which run under the Straits of Mackinac. The Canadian gas company Enbridge Energy plans to build a tunnel to contain the pipeline, but some engineers think the proposal poses safety risks. Canadian officials have supported the pipeline, citing the company's claims that closing it would put the country's oil and gas supply at risk. But Beth Wallace, conservation partnerships manager at the National Wildlife Federation's Great Lakes Regional Center, said this report shows alternatives that would not cause major disruptions. "Line 5 is almost 20 years past its useful engineered life, according to the experts that originally constructed the pipeline," said Wallace. "The location itself, 20% of the world's freshwater, drinking water for millions of people, it should have never been put there to begin with." The report outlines possible alternatives, such as rerouting some of the Line 5 supply to another pipeline, Line 78, and other fossil-fuel-transport options. Enbridge says Line 78 is full serving existing customers and cannot accommodate more, and that increasing fuel-transport capacity would take years to develop, and also harm the environment. Wallace added that another motivation for closing Line 5 - not covered in the report - is how fast the transition away from fossil fuels is moving, particularly in the automotive sector. She said the risks to the environment and Tribal water rights are too high to continue operating the pipeline. "Now that it's 70 years old, we have alternatives," said Wallace. "We're transitioning away from fossil fuels, there's just absolutely no reason why we can't start to transition, including with this particular pipeline." After Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer ordered Line 5 to be shut down last year, the Canadian government invoked a 1977 treaty between the U.S. and Canada to block that action.
Dakota Access pipeline suffers U.S. Supreme Court setback (Reuters) -The U.S. Supreme Court on Tuesday rejected a bid led by Dakota Access oil pipeline operator Energy Transfer LP to avoid additional environmental review of a section that runs under an artificial lake and is opposed by nearby Native American tribes, leaving the pipeline vulnerable to being shut down. The justices left in place a lower court's decision that ordered the federal government to undertake a more intensive environmental study of the pipeline's route underneath Lake Oahe, which straddles the border of North Dakota and South Dakota. The pipeline, known as DAPL and open since 2017, will continue to operate as the review is carried out. "We call on the administration to close the pipeline until a full safety and environmental review is complete. DAPL never should have been authorized in the first place, and this administration is failing to address the persistent illegality of this pipeline," said Jan Hasselman, a lawyer for the environmental group Earthjustice who represents the Standing Rock Sioux Tribe. The Dakota Access pipeline has been the subject of a lengthy court battle between tribes seeking its closure and Dallas-based Energy Transfer. Whether the project should be shut down was not at issue in Energy Transfer's Supreme Court appeal. But Energy Transfer said in court papers that the pipeline remains "vulnerable to a shutdown" with the new environmental review pending. The company did not immediately reply to a request for comment. The Standing Rock Sioux Tribe, along with the Yankton Sioux Tribe, the Oglala Sioux Tribe and the Cheyenne River Sioux Tribe, have opposed the biggest pipeline out of the Bakken shale basin. The pipeline runs about 1,170 miles (1,885 km) from North Dakota to Illinois. The disputed section on federal property under Lake Oahe, an artificial reservoir on the Missouri River, is 1.7 miles (2.7 km) long. The tribes draw water from the lake for various purposes, including drinking, and also consider the waters of the Missouri River to be sacred. Their lawyers have said the tribes are worried about a potential oil spill. The tribes lobbied hard to prevent the easement under the lake from being approved and initially appeared to have succeeded when in 2016 the administration of Democratic former President Barack Obama said it would review its original action to allow construction. But after Republican Donald Trump became president in 2017, the government endorsed the original decision to grant an easement. Democratic President Joe Biden's administration urged the Supreme Court not to hear the appeal, saying the pipeline operator concerns about a shutdown were overstated.
North Dakota Oil Production Flat, But Gas Increases 1% - North Dakota’s Bakken Shale oil production under-performed in its most recent monthly statistics, reflecting a “serious shortage of hydraulic fracturing (fracking) crews,” the state’s chief oil/natural gas regulator Lynn Helms reported Tuesday. Helms told a webinar with reporters that he expects to see improvement in the summer months, but the May statistics — 34.9 million bbls (1.127 million b/d) compared to 33.6 million bbls (1.123 million b/d in April) — come with eight fracking crews in the field compared to the usual 20-25 such crews at the current level of prices around $60/bbl. “Operators are trying with all their resources to hire, but they are not finding employees who want to come back to the industry and come back to North Dakota, ” said Helms, director of the Department of Mineral Resources. “Pre-Covid-19 pandemic we had 25 frack crews, and during the deepest part of the pandemic we went down to one crew.” While oil production was “flat as a pancake,” Helms reported natural gas production rose 1% in May — 92.4 Bcf (2.98 Bcf/d), compared to 88.4 Bcf (2.94 Bcf/d in April). “So again we continue to see an increase in gas-oil ratios and more pressure on gas gathering infrastructure even when oil production stays flat,” Helms said. Natural gas prices have climbed up substantially, according to Helms, nearing $4/Mcf on Henry Hub. “This has relieved a lot of pressure on producers and operators because natural gas liquids [NGL] are following suit,” he said. “It’s now profitable to separate out NGLs and move them down a pipeline.” Red ink for gas processing and gas prices has gone away recently, Helms noted, adding that Bakken operators are “very slow” about adding rigs, which hit 23 on Tuesday compared to 20 and 19 in June and May, respectively. Helms reported that North Dakota is still losing ground in its efforts to remain ahead of hard-charging New Mexico as the second largest oil producing state. After outproducing New Mexico by 140,000 b/d in April, North Dakota’s margin decreased to 90,000 b/d in May, he said. “We’ll see just how long we can stay ahead in this race, but with only 23 rigs operating here and 75 in New Mexico, it is going to be a severe challenge [to stay in second place],” Helms noted. A combination of some new, tough flaring regulations and the continuing western drought could help dampen the New Mexico production, he said. Gas capture remains better than the state mandated target of 91% at the 92% level, but Helms is hoping to raise that higher in the months ahead. And in May permitting increased substantially with 75 permits issued, Helms said. Another milestone in May was one county, McKenzie, exceeding 5,000 wells. Helms said for comparison before the shale boom in 2006, North Dakota’s total statewide well count was 3,525. In contrast, the Fort Berthold Reservation statistics declined in May with rigs dropping by two and production by 19,000 b/d, and a big decrease in wells waiting on completion to 64, while the reservation Fee Lands fell back to 84% for gas capture during the month.
As Russian invasion spikes oil prices, observers say Bakken boost is unlikely - Russia's invasion of Ukraine drove already lofty global oil prices to their highest point in more than seven years Thursday morning, Feb. 24, but observers of the North Dakota oil industry aren’t holding their breath for the volatile situation in Europe to spur a drilling stampede here. Prices of Brent crude, the international benchmark, blew past $100 a barrel in the wake of Russia's offensive, while West Texas Intermediate, the U.S. benchmark, briefly jumped over $100 a barrel before both settled back to previous levels later in the day. Those prices had been climbing through much of the last year, but they rose quickly over recent weeks as the world waited to see whether Russian President Vladimir Putin's provocations would lead to deadly conflict. His decision to push troops into Ukraine Wednesday night spiked U.S. oil prices to a level not seen since 2014.Some experts also predicted Thursday that the Russian advance could precipitate a rise in gasoline prices. The national average Thursday afternoon was $3.54 a gallon, according to AAA , up slightly from the day before, while North Dakota prices sat at $3.39 a gallon. Prices at the pump in North Dakota have inched up in recent months and are nearly 80 cents per gallon above their level a year ago.Speculation over the impacts of war and international sanctions for Russia, which produces around 10% of the global oil supply, come as North Dakota’s oil industry has struggled to break away from a steady output of around 1.1 million barrels of production a day, down from a peak of more than 1.5 million barrels a day in November 2019. The climbing prices have also coincided with a more financially conservative approach from oil producersand shrinking industry appetites in the Bakken . “The Bakken has to compete now for every penny that it gets for investment,” North Dakota Petroleum Council President Ron Ness said. Many of North Dakota's top oil producers have focused their resources on paying down debts and building up their presence in New Mexico and Texas, and Ness predicted that even a continuation of recent price trends would be unlikely to prompt a substantial increase in drilling activity in North Dakota.
Activists Armed With Axes Attack Disputed Canadian Pipeline Site, Workers - Masked activists with axes and flare guns attacked the Canadian Coastal GasLink pipeline site, causing millions of dollars in damage as workers fled for their safety. About 20 people participated in the attack on Thursday in northern British Columbia, as they swung axes at vehicles and through truck windows. In one instance, the individuals tried to set a vehicle on fire while workers were still inside. No injuries from the workers have been reported, Coastal GasLink said in a statement. The attack comes as tension are high in Canada from so-called "Freedom Convoy" protests, for which Prime Minister Justin Trudeau invoked emergency powers for the first time in 50 years. The incident at Coastal GasLink is just the most recent demonstration they've seen regarding its 420-mile pipeline to the west coast of British Columbia as part of the LNG liquified natural gas project, Reuters reported. "This is truly disturbing," federal Industry Minister Francois-Philippe Champagne posted on Twitter. "Violence and illegal acts are not the way forward on any matter. We are a rule of law country and we cannot tolerate this type of violence and intimidation." Coastal GasLink alleged that attackers wearing camouflage surrounded the workers in a "highly planned and dangerous unprovoked assault." They entered the site by using grinders to cut the locks on the gate and then cut fuel lines and equipment hydraulics, causing dangerous leaks. The company said it's assessing the damage and environmental impact while working to contain and clean the mess.
"Multimillion Dollar Damage" As Canada's Anti-Vax Protesters Attack Site – Canadian police said Friday they were investigating a "violent confrontation" at a gas pipeline construction site in the western province of British Columbia. Shortly after midnight Thursday, police attempted to inspect the Coastal GasLink (CGL) construction site near Houston, where they say "approximately 20 people, some armed with axes" had been reported to be "attacking security guards and smashing their vehicle windows," according to a statement released by the Royal Canadian Mounted Police. On the road to the site, police discovered "downed trees, tar covered stumps, wire, boards with spikes in them, and fires" blocking the way. "As police worked their way through the debris and traps, several people threw smoke bombs and fire lit sticks at the police, injuring one officer," the statement added. When the police finally arrived at the worksite, they discovered "a multimillion dollar path of destruction." Photos accompanying the statement showed heavy machinery overturned or their windows and engines smashed, and a trailer with a wall ripped off. "This coordinated and criminal attack from multiple directions threatened the lives of several workers," said CGL in a statement. "In one of the most concerning acts, an attempt was made to set a vehicle on fire while workers were inside," the company, headquartered in neighboring Alberta province, added. The CGL pipeline aims to bring natural gas from eastern British Columbia to be liquified in a facility on the Pacific coast, before being exported. The project has stirred controversy in Canada for years. At the beginning of 2020, protesters against the pipeline mobilized across multiple Canadian provinces with some blocking rail traffic for weeks. At the moment, the CGL pipeline is 60 percent completed, the company said.
Trans Mountain says pipeline expansion cost surges to $21.4 billion -The federal government said on Friday it will halt any further public funding for the Trans Mountain oil pipeline expansion, after the government-owned company behind the project said costs had surged to $21.4 billion. Trans Mountain Corp also delayed the finish date of the expansion by a further nine months, dealing another blow to a project beset by regulatory delays and opposition.With the latest cost overrun, the government has told the Crown corporation to secure the necessary financing from public debt markets or financial institutions, Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland said.On Friday, Trans Mountain Corp. blamed the cost overrun on the impact of COVID-19 and extreme weather in B.C. that washed out roads across the south of the province and temporarily shut down the existing pipeline.It also said there had been increases in cost from design changes and improvements and to reflect financing costsThe company now expects to finish the expansion in the third quarter of 2023. The previous official cost estimate, made in February 2020, was $12.6 billion. It’s the second time since early 2020 that the cost estimate was raised, for a total of about 70 per cent. In 2017, just before Ottawa bought the company, it was pegged at $7.4 billionOnce completed, the Trans Mountain expansion would nearly triple the capacity of the existing oil pipeline running from Alberta to Burnaby to 890,000 barrels a day. It is the only pipeline carrying oil from Alberta to the West Coast.“This project was crazy from a climate perspective when it was supposed to cost $7.4 billion, but at $21.4 billion and rising, it is now economic madness,” said Keith Stewart, a strategist for Greenpeace Canada. “It’s time to cut our losses on this white elephant. “I want to assure Canadians that there will be no additional public money invested in Trans Mountain Corp,” Freeland said.The government has hired BMO Capital Markets and TD Securities to provide advice on raising more money.“Their analyzes confirm that public financing for the project is a feasible option that can be implemented swiftly. They have also confirmed that the project remains commercially viable,” Freeland added.“The progress we have made over the past two years is remarkable when you consider the unforeseen challenges we have faced including the global pandemic, wildfires and flooding,” CEO Ian Anderson said in a statement.Freeland reiterated that the Canadian government did not plan to be the long-term owner of the pipeline, and would launch a sale process in due course. In order to quell opposition to the project, the government has been in talks with First Nations groups that are willing to own as much as 100 per cent of the pipeline.
Trans Mountain to receive no more federal funding as costs surge - Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland, facing a gigantic bill from the federal government’s COVID-19 rescue effort, said the Trans Mountain pipeline will receive no more federal funding, even though the Crown corporation that owns the pipeline revealed on Feb. 18 that construction costs have surged by some 70 per cent.m “There will be no additional public money invested in TMC,” or Trans Mountain Corp., the company the federal government created when it bought the pipeline in 2018, Freeland said at a press conference. “TMC will secure necessary funding to complete the project through third-party financing, either in the public debt markets or with financial institutions.” Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s government bought Trans Mountain from Kinder Morgan Inc. for $4.5 billion to keep the project alive. It would expand capacity to 800,000 barrels per day from 300,000, and give oil producers in Alberta a meaningful connection to Asian markets, which should result in higher prices. The oilpatch currently is at the mercy of conditions in the United States, and transportation bottlenecks tend to depress prices by creating a glut of Canadian bitumen. "There will be no additional public money invested in TMC,” or Trans Mountain Corp., the company the federal government created when it bought the pipeline in 2018, Freeland said at a press conference. “TMC will secure necessary funding to complete the project through third-party financing, either in the public debt markets or with financial institutions.” Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s government bought Trans Mountain from Kinder Morgan Inc. for $4.5 billion to keep the project alive. It would expand capacity to 800,000 barrels per day from 300,000, and give oil producers in Alberta a meaningful connection to Asian markets, which should result in higher prices. The oilpatch currently is at the mercy of conditions in the United States, and transportation bottlenecks tend to depress prices by creating a glut of Canadian bitumen.
Eni Flows Oil From FPSO Offshore Mexico - Italian energy giant Eni has started production from the Miamte Floating Production, Storage, and Offloading (FPSO) vessel at the Miztón field offshore Mexico. The field is located within the Development Project in Area 1 in the Gulf of Mexico some 6 miles off the Tabasco coast. Eni said that the FPSO would increase the country´s production with an economical benefit for Mexico. Upon its arrival in Mexico in January 2022, Miamte FPSO has been connected to its Mooring System and went through pre-commissioning and integrated commissioning activities. Chinese shipbuilder Cosco Shipping Heavy Industry converted the FPSO from an oil tanker and delivered it in December last year to Eni. Following the first hydrocarbon introduction into the FPSO and two more platforms start-up in Amoca and Tecoalli fields, production will ramp up till the full field development will be completed by 2024. The FPSO has an oil treatment capacity of 90 kbopd and a gas treatment capacity of 75MMscfd. Eni added that the FPSO was built following the most stringent specification and the most advanced techniques for ensuring the safety of the operations for the people and the environment. The construction has involved 5 yards in 3 different countries including Mexico, maximizing the involvement of local suppliers. Early production from Miztón field started in June 2019, after only 3.5 years from the award of the Contractual Area 1, and 7 months from the Final Investment Decision (FID). Eni currently holds interests in eight exploration and production blocks – six as an operator – all located in the Sureste Basin in the Gulf of Mexico.
Vaca Muerta Shale's Natural Gas Pipe Said 'First Step to Going Global' --Argentina’s government has published a decree granting the natural gas transport concession for the Néstor Kirchner pipeline project to state natural gas buyer Integración Energética Argentina SA (Ieasa). Ieasa, which is also responsible for sourcing liquefied natural (LNG) imports in the country, has been given authorization to create a trust to construct the pipeline. The state firm is launching a tender and will be in charge of construction, maintenance and operation of the pipeline. The $1.5 billion, 24 million cubic meters/day (Mm3/d) Néstor Kirchner pipeline is to run from Tratayen in Neuquén to Salliqueló in Buenos Aires province. It would be key in allowing more natural gas from the Vaca Muerta shale formation to reach demand centers. Officials said the pipeline would be in operation by winter 2023. What Is In Second Phase? A second phase of the project would include upgrades to the Gasoducto Norte pipeline system, including flow reversal works and compression stations in the north of the country. Together, the two-phased project has a price tag of $3.5 billion. Ieasa is expected to issue an engineering, procurement and construction tender for the pipeline shortly. “A local firm will probably be involved,” Wood Mackenzie’s Ignacio Rooney told NGI from Buenos Aires. “There is ample experience in building gas pipelines in Argentina. I would expect them to work in a consortium with other firms, possibly international.” The Fiji Times » Peru oil spill remediation and cleaning could cost $65 million, Repsol CEO says (Reuters) – Clean-up and remediation costs after a major oil spill of more than 10,000 barrels at a Repsol facility in Peru could total more than $65 million, the Spanish company’s chief executive said on Thursday. “What we are seeing today in cost terms could be around $65 million more or less … this figure could increase in coming weeks,” Josu Jon Imaz told analysts on a conference call. “A main part of this figure is going to be covered by insurance companies and so on,” Imaz added. The spill occurred just off the coast of Lima on Jan. 15 when a tanker was rocked by waves caused by the eruption of a volcano in Tonga, Repsol and Peruvian officials have said.
Peru oil spill affected area the size of Paris, Repsol says — An executive of Spain’s Repsol SA said on Friday a large oil spill off the coast of Peru’s capital Lima affected an area of 106 square kilometers, the size of the French capital Paris or almost twice the size of Manhattan. The spill of over 10,000 barrels of oil in January is one of the largest environmental disasters to affect Peru and its Pacific coast biodiversity, including environmentally protected islands. While the company says it is close to cleaning up the ocean, it also acknowledged in a press conference on Friday that it will have to monitor environmental conditions for several months ahead, although it downplayed any negative effects. “The models we are seeing indicate that the (environmental) effects should be limited,” said Jaime Fernandez-Cuesta, Repsol’s CEO in Peru. “This I’m saying with a lot of caution.” The incident took place on Jan. 15 as oil was being discharged onto Repsol’s La Pampilla refinery, Peru’s largest. Repsol first blamed the eruption of a volcano in Tonga for causing abnormal waves that triggered the spill. Then it said the oil tanker had shifted positions abnormally during the discharge, allegations the tanker company denies. Prosecutors are also investigating the incident and have banned Fernández-Cuesta and three other executives from leaving Peru for the next 18 months. Fernández-Cuesta told reporters the spill lasted only minutes, although he declined to give a specific timeframe, citing an ongoing investigation. “The spill lasted minutes, in no case was it a larger amount of time than a few minutes,” he said. Repsol has so far paid 1.5 million soles ($405,405) in fines, executives said, a number that could rise. The company has estimated the cleaning up tasks – excluding fines – will cost about $65 million.
Deadly Nigerian oil-blast ship has peers all over the world — The decades-old, oil-storage ship that blew up off the coast of Nigeria recently -- killing some of its crew and spewing its contents into the Atlantic Ocean -- is one of many vessels of similar vintage dotted across the globe. That ship, still partially floating above the surface, was first launched 46 years ago when U.S. President Gerald Ford still held office and was reconfigured for storage 25 years ago. There are over 30 others still in operation that were originally constructed before 1977, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Vessels like Trinity Spirit typically start out as oil tankers before reaching the end of their useful lives as transporters -- typically a lifespan of not more than 20 years. To prolong their worth as assets, they get converted to vessels that float -- usually in a single location -- producing or just storing crude for other ships to collect. They’re known as FPSOs or FSOs and they can go on for years. “It is a challenge for FPSOs in the late stage of their lifetime, especially when there has not been sufficient maintenance and necessary upgrade, as corrosion develops and equipment condition gets worse, and system integrity is a headache,” said Zhenying Wu, a senior analyst for Rystad Energy. The ships need to withstand harsh environmental conditions and extremes of weather, such as huge storms, rogue waves and big temperature swings. While most are rigorously looked after, their need for maintenance increases with age. The American Bureau of Shipping, which classifies vessels for their operating safety, last year raised the need to address safety issues such as structural integrity and maintenance challenges around the global fleet of FPSOs, with over 50 of them reaching the end of their design life in the next five years. More than half are over 30 years old and a quarter over 40 years old. The cause of the Trinity Spirit accident that killed at least two crew has yet to be determined along with the amount of crude spilled, according to the National Oil Spill Detection and Response Agency. Its conversion 25 years ago means it was at the end of a typical life of a storage ship after it’s been reconfigured.
Germany halts approval of gas pipeline Nord Stream 2 after Russia's actions - Germany on Tuesday halted the certification of the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline designed to bring natural gas from Russia directly to Europe, after Russian President Vladimir Putin recognized breakaway parts of eastern Ukraine and ordered troops into the region. Germany's chancellor, Olaf Scholz, said that his country would not accept the recognition of the two self-proclaimed, pro-Russian separatist regions in the Donbas area of eastern Ukraine, and that Germany had to reassess the situation regarding Nord Stream 2. "In light of the most recent developments we must reassess the situation in particular regarding Nord Stream 2," Scholz said at a news conference. Scholz said he'd asked the German Economy Ministry to take steps "to make sure that this pipeline cannot be certified at this point in time, and without this certification Nord Stream 2 cannot operate." "The appropriate departments of the Economy Ministry will make a new assessment of the security of our supply in light of what has changed in last few days," he added. Germany has been accused of failing to act decisively over the Russian threat to Ukraine but on Tuesday Scholz said Europe faced "difficult hours" ahead and added that "almost 80 years after the end of the Second World War, we might see a new war in Eastern Europe. It is our task to avert such a disaster and I call upon Russia once more to contribute their share." The $11 billion pipeline is designed to double the amount of gas flowing from Russia to Germany and it was completed late last year. But German regulators had yet to give the green light to the pipeline to officially allow it to operate. In the course of a dramatic few hours on Monday evening, Putin said Russia would recognize the independence of the two self-proclaimed and pro-Russian republics, and then said he would send Russian troops to the region on a "peacekeeping" mission. Many fear that the deployment of troops into the so-called Donetsk People's Republic and Luhansk People's Republic is a precursor to a full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
German chancellor says the West has to 'work very hard' to find energy sources beyond Russia -- German Chancellor Olaf Scholz has told CNBC that the West has to work "very hard" to find alternative sources of energy beyond Russia as talks of potential sanctions intensify.Speaking to CNBC's Hadley Gamble at the annual Munich Security Conference, Scholz stressed that much of the West is reliant upon Russia's energy supplies."There is a lot of exports of oil, coal and gas from Russia to many countries – there is also a big [export] of oil to the United States," he said Saturday."So we all have to work very hard to produce a situation where we have alternatives. It's necessary that we also make it feasible that there is good cooperation – that we come back to a situation where there is not this confrontation … This is what we are working for." Russia was the largest supplier of natural gas and oil to the European Unionlast year. It follows much talk from Western officials over recent weeks about sanctioning Russia — and its energy industry in particular — if it invades Ukraine. Russia has repeatedly denied that it is planning to invade its neighbor but has amassed an estimated 150,000 troops near the border.German Chancellor Olaf Scholz says 'we are not willing to threaten Russia' over Ukraine There were also multiple claims of shelling across cease-fire lines from both Russian and Ukrainian sources this week. On Saturday, as part of a "planned exercise," Russia launched ballistic and cruise missiles in a show of its nuclear readiness.European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen told CNBC earlier Saturday that energy sanctions against Russian gas giant Gazprom remained "on the table" if an invasion took place.However, such sanctions could have significant financial implications for Ukraine, as a number of Russia's gas pipelines run through the country. Scholz insisted "we are taking care" of the issue.
Why Europe is so dependent on Russia for natural gas - Europeans have been suffering under painfully high energy prices in the lead-up to Russia launching an attack on Ukraine on Thursday morning. The European Union is especially dependent on Russian energy, which is becoming increasingly unsustainable.So how did the region become so dependent on Putin's Russia for its energy supplies?In the 1960s and 1970s, Europe was supplying roughly the same amount of natural gas that it was using, according to Tim Schittekatte, a research scientist at the MIT Energy Initiative and an expert on the European grid and the issues it is facing.Production of natural gas in Europe decreased because the North Sea gas fields, which are particularly important sources of natural gas production from the U.K. and the Netherlands, were depleted. And later the Netherlands announced they were completely shutting down their Groningen gas fields because of earthquakes.Over the same period, the EU has been reducing its dependence on coal to reach its climate goal of achieving carbon neutrality by 2050 and cutting emissions by at least 55% by 2030. Currently, about 20% of EU's electricitycomes from coal production.Since 2012, the EU has decreased its coal power generation by about a third, according to the Directorate-General for Energy for the EU.In addition, Germany summarily rejected investments in nuclear energy with its Atomic Energy Act in 2011, a decision made in response to the Fukushima nuclear disaster in 2011. Only 13% of Europe's energy now comes from nuclear power.About 25% of the EU's energy consumption comes from natural gas, according to the Directorate-General for Energy for the EU. Oil and petroleum (32%), renewable energy and biofuels (18%), and solid fossil fuels (11%) make up the rest.That dependence on natural gas means a dependence on Russia. Today, the EU is the largest importer of natural gas in the world, according to theDirectorate-General for Energy for the EU, with the largest share of its gas coming from Russia (41%), Norway (24%) and Algeria (11%)."In terms of foreign suppliers, Russian gas was just the cheapest. Rather than diversifying suppliers, routes to import Russian gas were diversified," Schittekatte told CNBC.In addition to Russian's natural gas being the cheapest, the Russian gas reserves were larger than any other nearby sources, Georg Erdmann, the former chair for the Department of Energy Systems at the Institute for Energy Technology at Berlin University of Technology, told CNBC. For the former German Democratic Republic (East Germany), "Russian gas and oil where the only affordable energy imports," Erdmann told CNBC. "Until today Russia fulfilled all long term contracts.... So the gas industry assumes Russia to be a rather reliable commercial partner."
EU plans to cut cord from Russian gas -As the Russia-Ukraine crisis continues to escalate, the European Union is making long-term plans to overhaul its energy supply chain, following decades of dependence on Moscow, The Washington Post reported.This change in strategy, expected to be announced on March 2, would call for a 40 percent reduction in fossil fuel use by 2030, according to the Post. The strategy would also require European energy companies to fill their storage tanks with gas this summer to reduce reliance on Russian gas next winter, the Post reported.These plans — which would require the approval of all 27 EU members — would allow governments to offer subsidies to customers struggling with energy bills, while accelerating permits for renewable energy projects, according to the Post. Yet Europe would still depend on Russia for the foreseeable future, as a total “shift can’t happen overnight,” the Post reported.“In the short and medium term, there are no good options,” Nathalie Tocci, head of the Italian Institute of International Affairs and an adviser to E.U. policymakers in Brussels, told the Post. “The problem is not now, but next fall. And by next fall we will not have found the silver bullet.”
Reviving the MidCat Natural Gas Pipeline Is Critical to Answering Russian Aggression - As U.S. and EU officials jet around the world to identify additional energy supplies for a Europe in crisis, Spain and Portugal are breathing new life into a stalled natural gas interconnector that carries profound implications. While this all plays out amidst the backdrop of mounting Russia-Ukraine tensions, the question remains whether France and the EU will lend their support to the project. President Emmanuel Macron may simultaneously be the greatest hope and challenge to the project’s success and, therefore, European energy security. French advocacy for the transnational interconnector would go far in advancing EU solidarity, particularly as France occupies the critical position of European Council President and President Macron seeks to fill the leadership void left by Chancellor Angela Merkel’s departure. The MidCat Pipeline, which would connect the Iberian Peninsula’s significant natural gas import capacity to the broader EU market through France, has reemerged as a point of interest for the EU and even NATO. The newfound attention is a bold recognition of the pipeline’s critical importance to transatlantic interests, particularly as the bloc seeks to mitigate chronic exposure to Russian energy manipulation and political interference. Just as Nord Stream 2 stokes further division and dependence, MidCat provides a feasible pathway for integration and diversification. But just how much can MidCat help alleviate Europe’s historical dependence on Russian supplies? Together, Spain and Portugal possess eight LNG import terminals capable of receiving more significant volumes today. In total, these terminals equate to a nominal import capacity of approximately 76 billion cubic meters per annum (bcm/a). Of course, this doesn’t factor in the direct pipeline links between Spain and North Africa. Algeria alone offers an additional five bcm/a. To put this in perspective, the Iberian Peninsula represents approximately 34 percent of total EU LNG import capacity. Unfortunately, this potential is primarily confined to the peninsula itself, as a lack of interconnections with the French system and the broader EU market creates a significant bottleneck. The result is the underutilization of import terminals and the very market illiquidity that the EU has attempted to overcome. Beyond doubling the volumes capable of being dispatched from the peninsula, MidCat enhances the long-term viability of transatlantic clean energy trade. The more fully utilized import capacity of Spain and Portugal would provide new opportunities for long-term contracts with U.S. LNG suppliers - contracts that offer greater consumer protection from price volatility.
Biden moves ahead with sanctions on company behind Nord Stream pipeline - President Joe Biden said Wednesday he was moving ahead with sanctions on the company in charge of building Russia's Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline after blocking such measures last year using a national security waiver."Today, I have directed my administration to impose sanctions on Nord Stream 2 AG and its corporate officers. These steps are another piece of our initial tranche of sanctions in response to Russia's actions in Ukraine. As I have made clear, we will not hesitate to take further steps if Russia continues to escalate," Biden wrote in a statement."Through his actions, President (Vladimir) Putin has provided the world with an overwhelming incentive to move away from Russian gas and to other forms of energy," Biden wrote.The move is part of a series of penalties the US and its allies have imposed on Russia this week in response to Putin's recognition of separatist territories in eastern Ukraine as independent.On Wednesday, signs were emerging of escalation in the crisis, despite the new raft of sanctions. Sources including Latvia's Prime Minister told CNN that Russian troops have moved into the eastern region of Ukraine that Russia has now recognized as independent.
Will Fresh US-EU Sanctions Hurt the EU More Than Russia? - The sanctions could end up causing more pain to U.S. allies in Europe than Russia itself, which will probably use this opportunity to take another step closer to autarky. Following Vladimir Putin’s recognition of the breakaway regions in eastern Ukraine, the US has said it will unveil a raft of new sanctions against Russia on Tuesday. This follows a Reuters report on Monday, citing “three unnamed sources familiar with the matter,” that new sanctions could include could include a measure that would prevent financial institutions in the U.S. from carrying out transactions with Russian banks. This is apparently the ace up Washington’s sleeve. Finally, sanctions on Russia that will really bite. However, as Reuters points out in the article, the White House hasn’t publicly announced plans to force US banks to sever relationships with Russian financial institutions. But behind closed doors that is what is allegedly happening — again, according to Reuters’ three unnamed sources: They aim to hurt the Russian economy by cutting so-called ‘correspondent’ banking relationships between targeted Russian banks and U.S. lenders that enable international payments. The sources also said the U.S. would place certain Russian individuals and companies on the Specially Designated Nationals list. It would effectively kick them out of the U.S. banking system, ban trade with Americans and freeze their U.S. assets. Experts believe it would be a meaningful blow to sanctioned bodies, as it would make it difficult to deal in U.S. dollars – the global reserve currency. Severing transactions between Russian banks and U.S. financial institutions could have a bigger impact on Russia’s economy than the sanctions unleashed to date, but they could also backfire. Not only could it hurt Russia’s economy by further weakening the ruble, which is currently close to a historic low against the dollar, and turbocharging inflation (already at 8.73% in January); it could also set off ripple effects across Europe, which has far closer economic ties with Russia than the U.S. The Italian lender Unicredit has already backed out of a potential acquisition in Russia over fears of sanctions. One of the biggest concerns in Europe is that the EU’s package of sanctions against Russia will include the continued closure of Nord Stream 2, the 750-mile, $11 billion underwater gas pipeline connecting Russia with Germany. The pipeline was finished in September 2021 but is still yet to receive final certification from German regulators. If it ever becomes operational, it will significantly boost deliveries of gas directly from Russia to Germany and then on to other parts of Europe, relieving some of the pressure in energy markets. But the pipeline has faced concerted opposition from the United States, the United Kingdom, Ukraine and other European countries, which have been calling for the project’s cancellation ever since its launch in 2015 over fears that it will significantly increase Russian influence over Europe. Of course, the United States, as the world’s largest producer of natural gas, has a direct financial interest in preventing Russia, the world’s second largest producer, from increasing its market share in Europe.Russia is the EU’s fifth largest trading partner, with imports of $188 billion and exports of $94 billion in 2021, according to Statista. And many European countries, including Germany, are massively dependent on imports of Russian natural gas. Around a dozen European countries procured more than half of their natural gas requirements from Russia in 2020,according to the European Union Agency for the Cooperation of Energy Regulators (ACER).
Gas is key in the Russia-Ukraine conflict — and supply could be disrupted around the world -Russian forces on Thursday launched their long-feared attack on Ukraine, sending shockwaves through financial markets and ratcheting up fears about the ramifications for gas supplies around the world. Russian President Vladimir Putin cast aside international condemnation and the first tranche of sanctions by declaring the beginning of a "special military operation" aimed at the "demilitarization" of Ukraine. Russian forces have reportedly fired missiles at military control centers in Kyiv and sirens were heard throughout the capital. NBC News reporters on the ground also saw and heard explosions in Kyiv and in other cities across the country. The crisis in Ukraine is changing rapidly and specific reports from the country are difficult to confirm. Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba said via Twitter on Thursday that Putin had "launched a full-scale invasion," of the country, which he described as "a war of aggression." Kuleba called on world leaders to stop the Russian president. "The time to act is now," he said. European gas prices jumped on news of the invasion, while international benchmark Brent crude futures surpassed $100 a barrel for the first time since 2014. "While Western governments probably will exempt energy transactions from sanctions, the blizzard of new restrictions will force many traders to be exceedingly cautious in handling Russian barrels," analysts at political risk consultancy Eurasia Group said. "Gas transiting Ukraine will likely be disrupted, affecting supplies to several central and eastern European countries, and raising gas prices in Europe," they added. What if Russia turns off the gas? Russia's invasion of Ukraine represents one of the worst security crises in Europe in decades. It is also expected to have far-reaching implications for the global economy, particularly given Russia's role as the world's second-largest producer of natural gas and one of the world's largest oil-producing nations. For several months, Russia has been accused of intentionally disrupting gas supplies to leverage its role as a major energy supplier to Europe amid an escalating dispute with Ukraine. Indeed, this was even the subject of a rare public rebuke from the International Energy Agency, which called on Russia to increase gas availability to Europe and ensure storage levels were filled to adequate levels during a period of high winter demand.
Energy prices skyrocket after Russia attacks Ukraine - Gas and oil prices in Europe skyrocketed after Russia attacked Ukraine early Thursday morning, February 24, 2022. Meanwhile, stock markets around the world tumbled amid rising concerns while Euro plunged to its lowest level against the dollar since June 2020 and hit a nearly 7-year low against the Swiss franc. Europe relies on Russia for nearly 40% of its natural gas and 25% of its oil. Fears that a war could disrupt global energy supplies sent Brent crude jumping as much as 9% to $105.79 a barrel as futures linked to TTF, Europe’s wholesale gas price, surged 60% to €141 per megawatt-hour.1 The extent of the Russian military operation ordered by President Vladimir Putin appeared to surprise some market participants, and could explain the powerful jump in prices, said Richard Bronze, head of geopolitics at Energy Aspects.2 "There was a mistaken view in the market as recently as yesterday that either Putin had gotten enough to pause or that things would be limited to the Donbas," he said. "Oil and natural gas prices have become the crisis’ fear barometer," said Norbert Rücker of Julius Baer. "Any disruption of flows between Russia and Europe, due to damage or sanctions, would drastically add to the already present supply scarcity." The crisis in Ukraine means that new gas contracts with Russia are inconceivable, the chair of Germany’s foreign affairs committee said Thursday.3 Earlier this week, Germany suspended the certification of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline, putting the energy project with Russia on hold indefinitely. NS2 is aimed at increasing Russia’s capacity to deliver gas to Germany and other EU countries via the Baltic Sea, bypassing transit countries such as Ukraine. "It’s all about duration now -- how long does geopolitics remain so unsettled that oil and other commodities stay very high? The longer that occurs, the more it will stoke inflation and the more of a headwind it will put on economic growth in the coming months and quarters," said Tom Essaye, founder of The Sevens Report.4 "And that sets up a potentially bad scenario where we have the Fed tightening, we have very high commodity prices putting a headwind on growth, and that will lead to an economic slowdown." If you think it can't get worse, think again. Vigilant citizens in neighboring countries, Europe, and around the world should have all their open plans finalized now.
European NatGas Jumps 60% On Ukraine Turmoil - Conflict in Ukraine continues to send European energy prices higher Thursday morning. Dutch TTF Gas Futures are up a staggering 60%, the most since 2005, in their fourth consecutive daily gain. German power contracts for March soared as much as 42%. Crude also increased, with Brent futures trading as high as $105 a barrel.Despite the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the US is unlikely to target Russian oil in the next round of sanctions for fear energy prices would continue to skyrocket. "I expect stringent sanctions, but nothing on energy -- bankers, ships and oligarch," Bob McNally, a former White House official who is president of consultant Rapidan Energy Group, told Bloomberg. "They don't want to add upward pressure on oil prices -- they are absolutely terrified," McNally said. Meanwhile, Putin's right-hand man, Dmitry Medvedev, warned on Tuesday that Germany's move to halt the process of certifying the Nord Stream 2 natgas pipeline would only result in soaring natural gas prices for the continent running low on supplies. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz has issued an order to halt the process of certifying the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline. Well. Welcome to the brave new world where Europeans are very soon going to pay €2.000 for 1.000 cubic meters of natural gas!— Dmitry Medvedev (@MedvedevRussiaE) February 22, 2022 Rising energy prices due to geopolitical turmoil in Ukraine will unleash more inflationary pressures that could cause a global economic slowdown and an environment that Nomura's Charlie McElligott says could produce stagflation.
Massive Gas Imports Route May Stop at Any Point - As the Russia-Ukraine crisis unfolds, the massive gas imports route via Ukrainian trunk pipelines may stop at any point. That’s according to GlobalData’s senior oil and gas analyst Veronika Kustkova, who warned that this brings an immediate threat to Europe while withdrawals from gas storages continue to rise. Kustkova added, however, that it is doubtful these gas storages will reach 2018 historical lows. “European demand for gas has increased since 2020 and is expected to stay at the same level in the short term, placing Europe in an uncomfortable position as Qatar has already declared they will not be able to fulfil the supply shortage,” Kustkova said in a statement sent to Rigzone. “According to Eurostat and GlobalData analysis, Russian imports made up 45 percent of EU imports in the first 10 months of 2021. Similarly, Russian gas exports are reliant on Europe and Turkey, which made up around 78 percent in 2021 despite increasing volumes going to China,” the analyst added in the statement. “An alternative source of gas is U.S. LNG imports, but volumes will be constrained by capacity. However, medium-term increases will depend on new projects with the likes of the Rio Grande, which has already seen a delay,” Kustkova continued. The GlobalData analyst highlighted that in the past two months GlobalData has seen U.S. LNG imports to Europe taking over from Russian pipeline gas for the first time in history. In a statement posted on its website early on February 24, which was translated from Ukrainian, the Ukraine energy ministry outlined that Russia was trying to destroy Ukraine’s military and critical infrastructure. In that statement, the ministry, which said Ukraine’s armed forces had repelled an air attack, noted that the power system of the country was operating “normally” and said the availability of the necessary energy resources was “fully ensured”. “From … [Thursday], the UES of Ukraine and burshtyn TPP island are synchronized into one power system operating autonomously from Russia and Belarus in a single regulatory block with the Moldovan energy system,” the ministry said in the statement. “At all sites, security and security equipment have been strengthened. Systematic monitoring of the stability of enterprises and networks of the energy sector is taking place,” the ministry added in the statement.
Biden: Sanctions will 'allow energy payments to continue' - President Biden today announced a new round of sanctions on Russia after President Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine but said the penalties are intended to skirt impacts to the energy sector. “In our sanctions package, we specifically designed to allow energy payments to continue. We are closely monitoring energy supplies for any disruption,” Biden said in a speech from the White House this afternoon. “We’ve been coordinating with major oil-producing and -consuming countries toward our common interest to secure global energy supply.” Biden nonetheless said the sanctions from the U.S. and its allies would be “severe.” They penalize four major Russian banks, including VTB, Russia’s second largest, freezing their American assets. The sanctions will cut off major Russian state-owned companies, penalize additional Russian billionaires and restrict access to technology exports, Biden said. “Putin is the aggressor. Putin chose this war,” Biden said. “And now he and his country will bear the consequences.” The president’s speech came shortly after press reports that Russia had taken control of the Chernobyl nuclear power plant, the site of the worst nuclear disaster in world history situated north of Kyiv near the border with Belarus. Biden and the European Union have stopped short of cutting Russia off from SWIFT, the global banking payment system. Ukrainian leaders have been asking nations to ban Russia from the system, which could impact its oil and gas industry. Biden said it remains an option but “that’s not the position that the rest of Europe wishes to take.” “The sanctions that we have proposed on all their banks have equal consequence, maybe more consequence than SWIFT,” Biden said. The U.S. and other nations imposed an initial round of sanctions on Russia earlier this week targeting Russian banks and oligarchs. Germany has also suspended certification of the Nord Stream 2 natural gas pipeline. Leaders of the Group of Seven are in agreement to “limit Russia’s ability to do business in dollars, euros, pounds and yen,” Biden said. He also said the U.S. would send additional troops to support NATO allies in Eastern Europe but reiterated that they would not get involved on the ground in Ukraine.
UK, Europe gas prices plunge a day after record surge - British and Dutch gas plunged on Friday, just a day after posting historic gains on account of the Russian invasion of Ukraine.In the Dutch gas market – a closely watched measure for European prices – the front-month contract fell by 27.50 euros to 108.50 euros per megawatt hour (MWh) by 0816 GMT, having risen to an intraday high of around 140 euros/MWh on Thursday.The price for April was down 5.50 euros at 110.50 euros/MWh, while the May contract was down 16.50 euros at 107.50 euros/MWh.In the UK, the weekend gas price was down 15.00 pence at 261.00 pence per therm, while the summer 2020 contract slumped by 70.00 pence to 260.00 p/therm.On Thursday, the price of British gas for next-day delivery jumped 53 percent to 326p per therm as the Russian invasion stoked fears of a major disruption to global energy supplies. Similarly, Dutch futures had also jumped 57 percent on contracts for delivery in March.In the United States, the March New York Mercantile exchange natural gas futures contract approached $5.00, up more than 30 cents early Thursday, before giving back the gains. The contract settled at $4.568, down 5.5 cents on the day.According to US Global Investors Inc. head trader Mike Matousek, the war in Ukraine threatens the flow of gas to Europe at a time when natural gas consumption is near peak levels during the late-season throes of winter. “This presents the potential for major energy supply headwinds,” Matousek told NGI.
Cargill Ship Hit In Missile Attack In Ukraine Waters - Star Tribune reports a vessel chartered by Cargill Inc., a Minnesota-based agribusiness giant, was hit in a missile attack after leaving a deep-sea port on the outskirts of Odessa on Thursday. "Right now, our priority is the safety of our people in the region. This is a rapidly evolving situation with a great deal of uncertainty," said April Nelson, a Cargill spokeswoman, in an e-mail. "We are currently gathering information and assessing potential impacts to Cargill and our customers." Cargill said that the crew was safe, and the vessel was rerouted to Romania to undergo a damage report. Cargill has a majority stake at a port in the Odessa port, exporting grains and oils worldwide. The company didn't name the vessel. Since the attack on Thursday, Cargill implemented contingency plans as Russia invades Ukraine for the second day. Its plan is to concentrate on guaranteeing its global customers' food supplies. Ukraine and Russia account for 25% of global trade in wheat and 20% of corn sales. With port and railway closures in Ukraine, Bloomberg Agriculture Spot Index has risen to record highs.
Oil Tanker Owners Avoid Russian Crude --Russia relies on tankers for about two thirds of its crude exports. Oil tanker owners are avoiding offering their ships to collect crude from Russia as they wait to see what sanctions the country might face after invading Ukraine. Two shipbrokers and three owners said owners are currently unwilling to make offers to collect Russian barrels. The owners said that oil-freight transportation costs are also very low anyway, making it even more unattractive to do so. Russia relies on tankers for about two thirds of its crude exports meaning that any prolonged disruption to shipping would be more serious. The country’s oil has already been already selling at the deepest discounts in years to an international benchmark as traders fret over how the Ukraine situation will play out. The West is threatening further punishing sanctions after Russian forces attacked targets across Ukraine and President Vladimir Putin vowed to “demilitarize” the country and replace its leaders, triggering the worst security crisis in Europe since World War II. Companies that are due to carry out contracts in the Black Sea will now find themselves in the difficult position of deciding whether to perform or to turn back, each with costly consequences, said Andrew Brooker, managing director at marine insurance broker Latitude Brokers. Insurers would decline to cover a trip that could soon breach sanctions. On the other hand, not fulfilling contracts also runs the risk of litigation.
"Nothing Compares To The Chaos We're Seeing Now": Tanker Rates On Russian Crude Routes Soar Sixfold In One Day Amid War Fears - As OilPrice reports, amid a general unwillingness of tanker owners to send their vessels to Russian ports, the freight rates for a medium-sized tanker to load Russian crude jumped nearly threefold on Thursday from Wednesday, shipbrokers and traders told Bloomberg.The freight rate to hire an Aframax tanker on the Baltic Sea to Europe route surged after Russia invaded Ukraine, while owners of oil tankers had already started to avoid Russian ports because of both the military invasion of Ukraine and apprehension that sanctions for oil could also come soon. Rates for oil tankers on the TD6 Black Sea-to-Med route surged more than six-fold, by $90,752/day, to $107,382/day from under 17,000, according to data from the Baltic Exchange in London. That’s the highest since April 2020. Baltic Sea oil tanker rates have also soared. Ships on the TD7 Baltic-to- U.K. Cont. route rose by $13,407 to $135,148/day, the highest in data going back to 2008.Rates to charter Suezmax ships climbed $55,800 to $67,027/day, the highest since April 2020 when every oil merchant was scrambling to store oil offshore.As a result of the surging Baltic-Europe tanker rates, the Middle East to Europe rates also rose, and on Friday hit the highest on record.Two-thirds of Russia's crude oil exports are seaborne, from ports in the Black Sea and the Baltic Sea. The Russian flagship Urals crude grade loads from ports in the Baltic Sea, and most of it is sold in Europe.As we reported on Thursday, while international benchmark oil prices were soaring on Thursday, the Urals grade was offered at the deepest discount in at least 11 years—$11.60 a barrel below Dated Brent, as traders feared sanctions on Russian oil. Even Chinese buyers of Russian seabourne oil had put their purchases on hold amid US concerns over Russian sanctions.Owners of tankers have become reluctant to offer their vessels to load crude from Russia for fear that their future cargo could be breaching potential sanctions if the West decides to deploy the harshest sanctions against Russia after it invaded Ukraine early on Thursday.As Bloomberg reports, at least two merchant ships have been reportedly hit since Russian forces began the attack on its neighbor this week. Insurers are either not offering to cover vessels, or they’re demanding huge premiums to do so.That has compounded oil trading and shipping markets that were already -- with a few exceptions -- leery of doing Russian deals while people figure out the sanctions risk of buying the nation’s crude. Trade lawyers said that commodities from Russia should ultimately keep flowing, but that caution is likely in the near term and the situation is fast-changing.
Oil spill heads towards Morecambe Bay after North Wales leak - OIL is set to flood towards the Morecambe Bay after a spillage in North Wales earlier this week. Over 500 barrels of crude oil spilt from a leaking pipe off the coast of Wales on Monday, and the spillage has been drifting north ever since. And now it's moving towards the English coast, on course to beach in the North-West. ENI, the company in charge of the oil platform from which the spill originated, have reported that small tar balls have already washed up on the Blackpool coastline. It could mean danger for marine birds which call the region home. Dr Emily Baxter, Senior Marine Conservation Officer for the North West Wildlife Trusts said: "Our greatest concern is for the welfare of seabirds - offshore populations of sea ducks and divers in Liverpool Bay, coastal wading birds that feed and roost in our estuaries and along the coastline, as well as fish and other marine life that live and feed in our coastal waters. "We are also concerned about the effect that the spill (oil and tar balls) will have on vital coastal habitats such as mud and sand flats, saltmarsh and sand dunes. Thousands of migratory and overwintering birds, as well as fish, shellfish, crabs and other wildlife rely a variety of different coastal habitats found across the Lancashire coastline." News of the spill came on the 26th anniversary of what has been called Wales’ worst ecological disaster, when 72,000 tonnes of crude spilled from the Sea Empress oil tanker off the Pembrokeshire coast. Large numbers of seaweeds and invertebrates were killed on the beaches where it drifted ashore, and it took over a year to clean the slick. The high winds of Storm Dudley have helped to disperse the oil spill. It is now being recorded to be washing up in the form of small tar balls, rather than a slick (which can smother birds, wildlife and habitats). However, tar balls can be very persistent in the marine environment, travel vast distances and be difficult to clean up depending on their size and where they wash up.
SPRC pipeline leaks again -- More crude oil has spilled from the same underwater pipeline owned by Star Petroleum Refining Plc (SPRC) off the Rayong coast. Rayong governor Channa Iamsaeng said Thursday's leakage occurred near previous pipeline breaches. He said the amount of leakage has not been determined although oil containment booms have been put in place to prevent spill expansion. The Marine Department has also deployed ships for spraying dispersant chemicals on the spill. Mr Channa criticised the company for not implementing adequate prevention measures, which has led to repeated accidents. On Jan 25, 47,000 litres of oil leaked from an SPRC pipeline. Another 5,000 litres leaked earlier this month.
Third oil leak confirmed at Rayong pipeline - Authorities have been informed by Star Petroleum Refining (SPRC) that another leak in its underwater oil pipeline has been found and sealed during its investigation regarding the previous oil spills. SPRC has sent a letter notifying the Rayong Marine Department about the incident on Tuesday (Feb 15), saying that a leak was found in a pipeline near the location that caused the major oil spill last month. The company, majority owned by Chevron, stated that it has taken emergency measures to stop the leak but has also requested assistance from authorities while they fortify the pipelines to prevent future oil spills. Two oil spills occurred in the Gulf of Thailand in recent weeks. The first oil spill cause a massive oil slick off the coast of Map Ta Phut area on January 25. Another oil leak was then reported on February 10 due to operations to investigate the first leak. Meanwhile, Deputy Rayong Governor Anant Nakniyom stated that authorities are still patrolling the beaches to prevent any oil slick from reaching the area. He noted that business owners can apply their compensation complaints at the provincial office, urging anyone affected by the oil spill to make a legal complaint. Deputy Governor Anant added that officials will make sure the SPRC compensates the victims as soon as possible
Owner of damaged oil pipeline in Rayong expects approval today to commence repairs -An urgent meeting is scheduled for today (Sunday) between officials of the Marine Department, other agencies and representatives of Star Petroleum Refining Plc (SPRC) to consider the oil company’s application for permission to plug the second rupture in their submarine oil pipeline. The company reports that there are still about 12,000 litres of crude still in the damaged pipe. SPRC recently sought permission to gain access to the offshore mooring platform to undertake repairs, but the Rayong office of the Marine Department postponed a decision, pending consultation with relevant agencies and more technical details from the oil company over its repair plan. The company has already deployed numerous vessels to lay booms to contain any spillage which may occur during the maintenance work. According to Phuripat Theerakulpisut, deputy director-general of the Marine Department, the company estimates that it will take a week repair the pipe, including three days to apply special adhesive material. Once the crack is sealed, the company will then start pumping the residual crude oil out of the pipeline, followed by the removal of a specific section of the damaged pipe, which will be handed over to the local police as evidence. On February 10th, about 5,000 litres of crude oil left in the pipeline leaked into the sea off Rayong province, prompting another operation to prevent it from reaching the provincial shoreline and Samet Island. Yesterday, SPRC sent a drone to a location about 2 nautical miles to the southeast of the mooring platform for an aerial survey, after the skipper of a fishing vessel claimed to have seen traces of oil. The company, however, said no oil spill could be detected. This was confirmed by satellite images from the Geo-informatics and Space Technology Development Agency (GISTDA). Regarding claims for compensation by about 2,000 fishermen and clam farmers, the provincial fisheries office said that a meeting is scheduled for Tuesday, between their representatives and SPRC, to discuss the matter.
Thai Marine Department approves oil pipeline repair plan | Thai PBS World - Thailand’s Marine Department has finally granted permission for Star Petroleum Refining Plc (SPRC) to start repairing the ruptured submarine oil pipeline at the offshore mooring platform off Rayong province. The decision, after several days’ delay, was reached during an urgent Zoom meeting today (Sunday), which was attended by representatives of the oil company, the Marine Department, the Council of Engineers of Thailand, the Engineering Institute of Thailand, the Federation of Thai Industries, the Department of Pollution Control and Map Ta Phut police. The approved maintenance plan will consist of applying leak stopping compounds, pumping residual oil out of the pipeline and the use of special adhesive material wrapped around the two points of rupture in the pipeline. Phuripat Theerakulpisut, deputy director-general of the Marine Department, said today that all the repair work must be done under the supervision of experts from abroad and representatives of the pipeline’s manufacturer, in close coordination with the Marine Department and the Royal Thai Navy, who will ensure safety and limit the potential damage cause by any oil spilt during the repairs. He also said that SPRC has prepared three response groups, one of which is responsible for laying five booms, each about 200 metres long, near the mooring platform. 10 vessels will be deployed to tow the booms to contain any further leakage of oil. The second group is responsible for applying dispersant and the third comprises the Si Racha Offshore 881 vessel, which is specially designed to collect spilt oil at a rate of up to 100,000 litres per hour. Another vessel is equipped to trap submarine oil spills and pump it on board. Meanwhile, the Royal Thai Navy will place a vessel on standby to observe the repair and support operations, with 24 drivers available to provide support.
Repair of oil pipeline in Gulf of Thailand expected to take ten days -The delicate work of plugging the ruptured submarine oil pipeline is set to begin soon, but only after all 12,000 litres of crude oil still in the pipe are removed. This will start tomorrow (Tuesday) and is expected to take about two days, according to Star Petroleum Refining (SPRC), the company responsible for the oil leaks in the Gulf of Thailand early this year. Once the residual oil is completely removed, the repairs can begin. They are expected to take a further 10 days. PCD Director-General Attapol Charoenchansa told Thai PBS today that SPRC must make sure that everything proceeds according to plan, especially the prevention of any leakage of oil during the repair process. He said he had proposed, at an urgent meeting held yesterday, that a team must be deployed to record the repair work in full, as he cited the importance of the pipeline, which is a key piece of evidence and must be protected. Attapol also said, however, that he is optimistic that SPRC will make sure that there are no further spills, adding that the whole operation will be under the close supervision of experts and done in close coordination with the PCD and other relevant agencies. According to the repair plan, sealant will be injected into the two cracks in the pipe, to be followed by the removal of the residual oil. Then, special adhesive material will be wrapped around the defects and tests will be conducted to make sure that they are completely sealed. Attapol said that the process of removing residual oil from the pipeline will be closely monitored by divers and, if there is an oil leak, work will immediately be suspended. While the repair work is to take place mostly under the sea, ten vessels are being deployed near the offshore mooring platform, equipped with booms and oil dispersant to contain any oil leaked. In case waves are higher than 1.5 metres, dispersant will be applied. A vessel is also deployed to collect oil floating on and below the sea’s surface.
Tanker Carrying Iranian Oil Caught Fire Near China’s Shores - A tanker carrying half a million barrels of oil originating in Iran caught fire near China’s shores on Friday but the crew controlled the blaze.One day after the incident, Iran’s official IRNA news agency denied there was any link between the country and the oil tanker.The IRNA report tried to use vague wording in its denial, suggesting that the cargo had been sold by Iran to an intermediary for delivery to a final customer, saying, “IRNA has learned from informed sources that this oil tanker does not belong to Iran and the only possibility is that its cargo belongs to one of Iran’s customers.”Tanker tracking firm TankerTrackers confirmed the news in a tweet on Saturday, saying that “an old uninsured foreign-flagged tanker carrying half a million barrels of Iranian oil caught fire in the Far East”.TankerTrackers added that they informed clients of the vessel’s identity and location.According to reports, Iran normally transfers oil to different tankers in the sea to get round US sanctions since 2018 and send oil to China.Fars news agency affiliated with the Revolutionary Guard said earlier in February that Iran’s oil export income grew by 494 percent in the first 5 months of the Raisi administration. Earlier in January, a report detailed Iran’s large diesel smuggling network, revealing the role of the Revolutionary Guard and private shipping companies in the illicit trade.
Move to fill up crude oil storages - India has invited bids from oil companies to lease out storage space equivalent to 1.05 million tonnes (mt) of crude oil as global prices simmer on account of the Russia-Ukraine conflict. The West has threatened Russia, a top oil and gas supplier, with new sanctions if it attacks Ukraine; Russia denies planning any attacks. Indian Strategic Petroleum Reserves Limited (ISPRL) has issued tenders to fill up the reserves at Visakhapatnam and Mangalore. The tender invited bids to fill up the Visakhapatnam storage facility — they are in the form of underground caverns — up to 0.3mt with only Basrah light as the rest of cavern holds the same grade. The Mangalore cavern offers 0.75mt storage for leasing that can be filled up with any grade. Analysts expect crude prices to remain high, with the stand-off in Ukraine heightened by low production by Opec nations and rising demand following the gradual restoration of normality from the pandemic Prices ended the week mixed on Friday as investors weighed a potential supply disruption resulting from the Russia-Ukraine crisis against the prospect of increased Iranian oil exports. India is vulnerable to rising prices as it imports more than 84 per cent of its crude requirement. ISPRL can undertake partial commercialisation by leasing the caverns to Indian or foreign companies with the Indian government having the right of first use in case of any disruption in supplies.
India prepared to release emergency oil reserves to combat skyrocketing prices - India prepared to release emergency oil reserves to combat skyrocketing prices © Associated Press/Saurabh Das India, the world's third largest oil consumer and importer, on Saturday said it would tap into its national stockpile for oil reserves in an effort to curb rising global energy prices amid Russia's invasion of Ukraine. The country already released 3.5 million barrels as part of an agreement with the U.S. to combating rising gas prices. But India is now further "supporting initiatives for releases from strategic petroleum reserves to mitigate market volatility and calm the rise in crude oil prices," according to a government statement reviewed by Reuters. India has about 31 million barrels in emergency reserve, according to Bloomberg. The price per barrel of oil soared past $100 internationally after Russia invaded Ukraine on Thursday. Senate Democrat calls on Biden to release oil from strategic reserves On The Money — Inflation held firm in January as omicron raged President Biden on Thursday signaled he was working with other nations to limit energy prices and help consumers at the pump. “We are actively working with countries around the world to elevate collective release from the strategic petroleum reserves of major energy consuming companies, and the United States will release additional barrels of oil as conditions warrant,” he said in a speech addressing the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Japan and Australia have also agreed to tap oil reserves, according to Reuters.
Saudi Arabia boosts oil production to 10m barrels per day - Saudi Arabia’s crude oil production has soared to over 10m barrels per day, (bpd) according to data from the Joint Organisations Data Initiative (JODI). It revealed the oil giant had increased production by 110,000 bpd to 10.02m in December. This was 1.04 million bpd above the levels it recorded in the year prior at the height of the pandemic, and 428,000 above the figures it published in December 2019. Exports of oil products from Saudi Arabia rose to a three-year high of 1.67 million bpd in December, from 1.55 million bpd in November. Despite the boom in production, JODI outlined that exports from Saudi Arabia and other oil-exporting countries worldwide fell slightly to 6.937 million bpd from 6.949 million bpd in November. Along with other members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), Saudi Arabia is trying to ramp up output every month as global oil demand rises on the back of a recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic. OPEC alongside key allies such as Russia (OPEC) is aiming to boost production by 400,000 bpd over the course of 2022. However the organisation has been missing its headline target, with multiple members including Nigeria and Angola failing to meet required quotas. This has helped boost rallies on both major benchmarks amid tightening supplies – with analysts speculating the $100 milestone could be reached for the first time since 2014.
No need for extra OPEC+ supplies amid Iran talks, Nigeria says — There is no need for Opec+ to expand its oil production increases, Nigeria’s petroleum minister said today, as the group sees a potential deal between Iran and world powers unlocking more supplies. “We don’t have do anything extraordinary this time because we are expecting a lot of production,” Timipre Sylva said on the sidelines of a gas exporters conference in Qatar’s capital Doha. “We are expecting more production if a nuclear deal with Iran works out (since) there will be production from them,” Sylva added. Months of indirect talks between Iran and the United States to revive a 2015 nuclear deal abandoned in 2018 by then-US President Donald Trump are in their final stage, sources told Reuters. A deal could pave the way for Opec member Iran to raise its oil exports further, helping to ease what many analysts see as an acute tightness in the oil market. Brent crude traded just below US$100 a barrel today, its highest since September 2014, as the possibility of a Russian invasion of Ukraine heightened the risk of supply disruptions.
Vitol CEO sees oil above $100 for a ‘prolonged period’ this year — Oil prices could be set for a “prolonged period” above $100 a barrel over the next six to nine months, with the world setting fresh demand records this year, said Vitol Group Chief Executive Officer Russell Hardy. Crude already surged to within a few dollars of that level earlier this month, as the recovery in fuel use from the pandemic started to run into supply constraints. In an interview in London with Bloomberg television, the boss of the world’s largest independent oil trader said the market will get tighter, with daily consumption set to rise well above pre-Covid levels by the end of 2022. “The 100 million-barrel number is probably going to be exceeded this year,” Hardy said. “Demand is going to surge in the second half” if travel continues to return to normal. As some of the biggest players in oil market gather in London for International Energy Week -- the first time the event has happened in-person for two years -- their industry is still grappling with the consequences of the initial pandemic price slump. Energy supplies are struggling to keep up with a robust economic recovery. Several OPEC+ members, plagued by under-investment and disruptions, aren’t able to revive all of the output they shut down in 2020. Many companies, from U.S. shale drillers to global supermajors, are focused on giving cash to shareholders instead of growing production. The result is a surge in oil prices that’s feeding an inflationary spike. The situation threatens to derail the global economic recovery and inflict a cost-of-living crisis on millions. Brent crude oil for May rose to $92.08 a barrel at 2:36 p.m. in London, reversing a slump from earlier in the day.
Saudi Arabia Slams Shortsighted Campaign Against Oil -- The world’s top oil exporter, Saudi Arabia, has repeatedly said it wants to be the producer that will pump the very last barrel of oil. Until that time comes, the world and its growing economy will still need oil and gas, even as renewable energy capacity soars globally. The rebound of economies after the 2020 COVID slump has shown that global oil demand is not only not declining, but it is just months away from reaching pre-pandemic levels and exceeding them.This weekend, Saudi Arabia once again deplored the underinvestment in oil and gas and said that focusing only on renewables while campaigning against oil and gas was a mistake. The insufficient investment in the oil and gas industry harms consumers, raises concerns about short-term supply shortages, and creates challenges for policymakers, Saudi Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman said at the 2022 International Petroleum Technology Conference (IPTC) in Riyadh this weekend.The campaign against oil and gas investments is shortsighted, the minister said, as carried by Arab News.The sole focus on renewables is a mistake, said the most influential oilman of the OPEC+ coalition.“The net-zero does not mean cherrypicking, net-zero does not mean zero oil,” he added.The sharp decline in oil and gas investments has created a danger “that the world will not be able to produce all the energy it needs to promote recovery,” Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman said at the conference, per the Saudi Press Agency. The Saudi minister also criticized the International Energy Agency (IEA) for its contradictory messages, from “no new investment ever again” last year to calls last week for more investment in oil and gas amid the current energy crisis and soaring oil prices.
Oil prices jump as tensions between Russia and Ukraine escalate - Oil prices jumped as the crisis between Russia and Ukraine escalated. However, prices moved off their highs during mid-morning trading on Wall Street. On Monday evening, Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered forces into two breakaway regions of eastern Ukraine and said he would recognize the independence of Donetsk and Luhansk. U.S. crude surged more than 3% at one point to a high of $96. The contract stood 1.2% higher at $92.17 per barrel around 10:45 a.m. ET. Brent traded as high as $99.50, but was last at $96.20 for a gain of 0.85%. Loading chart... Rising tensions have sent jitters through markets, driving oil prices higher. On Friday, U.S. President Joe Biden said the U.S. believes Putin has decided to carry out an attack on Ukraine "in the coming days." Loading chart... Russia has built up some 150,000 troops along its border with Ukraine, and the Biden administration said last week that as many as 7,000 additional troops have joined. The military tensions have sparked concerns that Russia may be preparing to invade Ukraine, triggering fears of a repeat of the Kremlin's illegal annexation and occupation of Crimea in 2014. Russia was the largest supplier of natural gas and oil to the European Union last year, and these tensions are lending support to oil prices. Crude prices recently crossed $90 per barrel, representing an increase of more than 20% this year and a rally of more than 80% since the beginning of 2021. Those gains, however, can also be attributed to other factors such as tight supply. Oil could spike to $110 per barrel if the crisis worsens, according to Andy Lipow, president of Lipow Oil Associates. "Should we actually have Russian oil supplies cut off to Europe, which is 3 million barrels a day, we could see oil prices rise another $10 to $15 a barrel, putting Brent at about $110 a barrel," he told CNBC's "Street Signs Asia" on Tuesday. "The market will rally on an invasion of Russian troops into Ukraine proper, and then it's going to wait to see where the resupply comes from," he added. A deal aimed at reviving Iran's 2015 nuclear agreement is expected to be very close to being reached, raising the possibility of more than 1 million barrels a day of Iranian crude returning to the market. Lipow said markets would look toward Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates and Kuwait to utilize some spare capacity, which he estimated at about 3.5 million to 4 million barrels a day.
Oil prices surge to almost $100 a barrel after Putin ordered troops into Ukraine - Oil has surged to its highest price since 2014 after Russia ordered troops into two breakaway regions in eastern Ukraine, adding to supply concerns that are pushing prices to near $100 a barrel. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude, the US benchmark, jumped by more than 3 percent and touched a seven-year high on Tuesday as it peaked at $96. 'We see the oil market in a period of frothiness and nervousness, spiced up by geopolitical fears and emotions,' said Julius Baer analyst Norbert Rucker. 'Given the prevailing mood, oil prices may very likely climb into the triple digits in the near term.' The US, UK and European allies are poised to announce new sanctions against Russia after President Vladimir Putin formally recognized the two regions in eastern Ukraine - Donetsk and Luhansk - escalating a security crisis on the continent. But Russia is a major exporter of oil to the US, and roughly a third of Europe's supply of natural gas comes from Russian pipelines - some of which run through Ukraine itself, raising the specter of huge disruptions to global energy markets. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz announced this morning that he had asked the regulator of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline - which would provide a direct supply of Russian gas to Germany - to halt the certification process. 'There can be no certification of the pipeline and without this certification, Nord Stream 2 cannot begin operating,' he said, in a move which strengthens Germany's position in implementing economic sanctions against Russia. The announcement came hours after Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky demanded an immediate halt to the Nord Stream 2 project, following months of German reluctance. Western allies have thus far been vocal about intentions to impose brutal sanctions should Russia proceed with a full-scale invasion of Ukraine, but doing so would put their energy supply from Moscow at risk. The crisis has placed even more stress on an oil market that has surged due to tight supplies as demand recovers from the coronavirus pandemic.
Oil Futures Pare Gains as Traders Parse Russian Sanctions - Nearby delivery oil futures pared gains in afternoon trade Tuesday, although all petroleum contracts finished the session sharply higher after the United States and European Union announced new sanctions on Russian banks, sovereign debt and government officials in response to Russia's recognition of two separatist regions in eastern Ukraine and movement of Russian troops across the Ukrainian border. The punitive package adopted Tuesday afternoon by western allies will likely have a limited impact on the Russian economy, according to financial analysts, suggesting tougher measures are still being held in reserve to convince Russian President Vladimir Putin to abandon his military adventures in the former Soviet satellite. Among economic sanctions announced against Russia on Tuesday are limits on access to EU primary and secondary capital markets for certain Russian banks and companies; export and import bans on trade in arms; and curtailment of Russian access to certain sensitive technologies and services that can be used for oil production and exploration. Additionally, the Biden administration announced a total economic embargo on the newly Russia-recognized republics of Donetsk and Lugansk in eastern Ukraine, while warning that the world might be seeing "the beginning of a Russian invasion." Of potential greater consequence for the Russian economy would be the German suspension of the Nord Stream 2 natural gas pipeline which was completed last year and has awaited EU regulatory approval since late November. The $11 billion pipeline designed to carry Russian gas under the Baltic Sea to northern Germany would have sharply increased the share of Russian gas on the European energy market. A bad situation could get much worse however, and that would depend on Putin's next move. Should he choose to march further into Ukraine, allies would contend they have no other option but to respond with harsh sanctions that could include energy. Even if he pulls back troops and sits down at the negotiating table with Ukrainian leadership, this crisis is far from over. NYMEX West Texas Intermediate for March delivery expired $1.28 higher at $92.35 barrel (bbl) after trading at $96 overnight, and April futures settled the session at a $0.44 discount at $91.91 bbl. Brent April contract on Intercontinental Exchange settle $1.45 higher at $96.84 bbl. March RBOB futures surged more than 4 cents to a $2.7108 gallon settlement, and front-month ULSD futures advanced 3.73 cents to $2.8188 gallon.
WTI Shrugs Off Huge Crude Inventory Build, Cushing Draws Continue -- Oil prices fell modestly today after the Biden admin hinted at more SPR releases and the algos auto-reacted. When asked if the US considering another release of the SPR to stem rising gas prices given the Ukraine crisis, White House Press Secretary Jen Psaki said “that is certainly an option on the table.” “What we’re trying to do and focus on is take every step we can working around the world with our counterparts and partners to minimize the impact on the global energy market,” Psaki said. The other side of the market was also making news today as Iran’s foreign minster said on Wednesday that it wants to settle the remaining issues in the coming days, but that it won’t concede on its red lines “under any conditions.” Any restoration of Iranian barrels to the global market would help ease tightness. Obviously, geopolitical tensions are dominating price action in the energy complex but any notable surprise from inventories may be enough to trigger the next leg one way or another... API
- Crude +5.983mm (+767k exp) - biggest build since Oct 2021
- Cushing -2.066mm - 7th straight weekly draw
- Gasoline +427k
- Distillates -985k
Crude stocks rose dramatically last week according to API, building almost 6mm barrels relative to a modest 767k expectation... WTI did rally after the settlement today and was hovering around $92.25 ahead of the API print and dipped below $92 after the data hit then bounced back...
Oil Futures Retreat From Highs After Russian Incursion - Nearby delivery oil futures fell in early trade Wednesday, with the international crude benchmark briefly sliding below $96 per barrel (bbl) after Western sanctions against Russia stopped short of including oil and gas exports, with oil traders now waiting for Russian President Vladimir Putin's next move after he recognized the separatist regions of Donbass and Lugansk in eastern Ukraine and moved his troops across the Ukrainian border. The markets are in a waiting mode now to see how far Russia's 190,000 troops will go into Ukraine after the Russian Parliament gave Putin the greenlight to use troops outside of country. The central question is whether he will stop with two pro-Russian republics in eastern Ukraine or order his troops to capture Kiev, Ukraine's capital. The current news flow is not encouraging, with the Russian government ordering the evacuation of all its staff in Kiev. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky called on military reserves to face off with the Russians, and Putin himself suggested that Russia recognized the two breakaway republics in their "expanded version." Donbass and Lugansk are currently divided into two parts -- Russian and Ukrainian -- with the Ukrainian military in control of about two-thirds of the territory. This includes a strategic seaport of Mariupol that is home to Ukraine's largest steel mills and its biggest machine-building company that produce much of the country's exports. Depending on Putin's next move in the Ukraine, U.S. and European allies may consider an additional round of sanctions on top of the measures already announced in response to Russia after Moscow recognized the two republics as independent from Ukraine. A rather mild package of Western sanctions suggests that U.S. and European allies still hold tougher measurements in reserve to convince Putin to abandon his military adventures in the former Soviet satellite. According to estimates, about 2.3 million barrels per day (bpd) of Russian crude heads west each day, which sanctions could threaten. This comes at the time when the global economy needs every barrel of oil. The current deficit on the global markets exceeds 1 million bpd, according to analysts, with OPEC+ consistently missing their production targets in recent months. Near 7:30 a.m. EST, NYMEX West Texas Intermediate for April delivery fell $0.51 to $91.35 bbl, while international crude benchmark Brent softened $0.44 to $96.40 bbl. March RBOB futures added 0.5 cents to $2.7158 gallon, and front-month ULSD futures dropped 2.48 cents to $2.7940 gallon. Liubov Georges can be reached at
Oil steadies as U.S. seen unlikely to sanction Russian exports (Reuters) - Oil prices steadied on Wednesday, holding below 2014 highs, as U.S. officials indicated escalation between Russia and Ukraine was unlikely to result in sanctions on energy supplies from Russia, one of the world’s top oil producers. Brent crude remained unchanged, settling at $96.84 a barrel, after hitting $99.50, its highest since September 2014 on Tuesday. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures ended up 19 cents to $92.10 a barrel. On Tuesday, WTI hit $96. Oil prices rose on Tuesday on fears that sanctions imposed by Western nations on Russia, after it sent troops into two breakaway regions in eastern Ukraine, could hit energy supplies. Sanctions imposed by the United States, the European Union, Britain, Australia, Canada and Japan were focused on Russian banks and elites, while Germany halted certification of a gas pipeline from Russia. But the United States made it clear that sanctions agreed and those which may be imposed will not target oil and gas flows. The Biden administration is not expected to target Russia’s crude oil and refined fuel sector with sanctions due to concerns about inflation and the harm it could do to its European allies, global oil markets and U.S. consumers, administration officials told Reuters. Moscow denies planning an invasion and has described warnings as anti-Russian hysteria. But it has taken no steps to withdraw the troops deployed along Ukraine’s frontiers. Ukraine declared a state of emergency on Wednesday and told its citizens in Russia to flee, while Moscow began evacuating its Kyiv embassy. Analysts expect oil prices to continue seeing support from the Russia-Ukraine crisis, with some Western countries promising more sanctions if Russia launches a full invasion.. The potential return of more Iranian crude to the market weighed on prices, as Tehran and world powers inch closer to reviving a nuclear agreement. “Nuclear talks in Vienna are reaching a sensitive and important point,” Iran’s foreign minister Hossein Amirabdollahian said on Wednesday. Yet analysts say there is little chance of Iranian crude returning to the market in the immediate future to ease current supply tightness. “If a U.S.-Iran deal is reached, it will ease some of the pressure but not enough to stop oil prices inching towards triple digits,” Pratibha Thaker of the Economist Intelligence Unit said. U.S. crude stocks rose 6 million barrels last week while distillate stocks fell, according to market sources citing American Petroleum Institute figures late Tuesday.
Oil soars past $105 as Russia’s attack on Ukraine rattles markets --Oil prices jumped on Thursday, with Brent rising above $105 a barrel for the first time since 2014, after Russia’s attack on Ukraine exacerbated concerns about disruptions to global energy supply. Russia launched an all-out invasion of Ukraine by land, air and sea in the biggest attack by one state against another in Europe since World War II. The United States and Europe have promised the toughest sanctions on Russia in response. “If sanctions affect payment transactions, Russian banks and possibly also the insurance that covers Russian oil and gas deliveries, supply outages cannot be excluded,” At least three major buyers of Russian oil were unable to open letters of credit from Western banks to cover purchases on Thursday, sources told Reuters. Brent crude was up $8.15, or 8.4 percent, at $104.99 a barrel as of 12:21 GMT, having touched a high of $105.79. US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude jumped $7.33, or 8 percent, to $99.43. Brent and WTI hit their highest since August and July 2014 respectively. “Russia is the third-largest oil producer and second-largest oil exporter. Given low inventories and dwindling spare capacity, the oil market cannot afford large supply disruptions,” “Supply concerns may also spur oil stockpiling activity, which supports prices.” Russia is also the largest provider of natural gas to Europe, providing about 35 percent of its supply. United Kingdom Prime Minister Boris Johnson vowed the UK and its allies would unleash a massive package of economic sanctions on Russia and said the West must end its reliance on Russian oil and gas. China warned of the impact of tensions on the stability of the energy market. “All countries that are truly responsible should take responsible actions to jointly maintain global energy security,” a Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson said. Global oil supplies remain tight as demand recovers from coronavirus pandemic lows. Underscoring the tight market, premiums on crude contracts for loading in one month over contracts for loadings in six months, a metric closely watched by traders, hit a record high at $11.55 a barrel. Analysts believe that Brent is likely to remain above $100 a barrel until significant alternative supplies become available from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC). The US and Iran have been engaged in indirect nuclear talks in Vienna that could lead to the removal of sanctions on Iranian oil sales. Iran’s top security official Ali Shamkhani said on Twitter on Thursday that it is possible to achieve a good nuclear agreement with Western powers after significant progress in negotiations. Analysts are warning of inflationary pressure on the global economy from $100 oil, especially for Asia, which imports most of its energy needs.
Oil prices jump 8% as Russia invades Ukraine; Brent tops $100 for first time since 2014 -Oil prices on Thursday jumped following Russia's invasion of Ukraine, with international benchmark Brent crude surpassing $100 a barrel for the first time since 2014. The attack is expected to have far-reaching implications for energy markets given Russia's role as the world's second-largest producer of natural gas and one of the world's largest oil-producing nations. Oil prices have jumped more than $20 a barrel since the start of the year amid escalating Russia-Ukraine tensions. Now, it is feared a wave of international sanctions on Russia's energy sector could disrupt supplies. Brent crude futures rose more than 8% at one point to trade above $105 per barrel. By 11:30 a.m. on Wall Street the contract stood at $103.74 for a gain of 7%. U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures, meanwhile, climbed over 5% to trade at $97.02. WTI had traded above $100 a barrel for the first time since 2014 earlier in the session before paring gains. Natural gas prices popped 6.5%. Spot gold, traditionally seen as a safe-haven asset, climbed 2.6%, last trading at $1,957.46 per troy ounce. Russian President Vladimir Putin launched an attack on Ukraine early Thursday local time after months of military buildup along the border they both share. The directive came days after the Kremlin leader formally recognized the independence of two pro-Moscow separatist regions in eastern Ukraine. Explosions were heard in Ukraine's capital of Kyiv, NBC News reported. The crisis in Ukraine is changing rapidly and specific reports from the country are difficult to confirm.
WTI Holds Gains After Surprise Crude Build, Another Hint At SPR Release - Crude prices are (obviously) dramatically higher heading into this morning's DOE inventory data (as geopolitical crisis dramatically trumped an unexpectedly large crude build reported by API). Bloomberg Intelligence Energy Analyst Fernando Valle weighs in: “The rally in WTI and Brent prices is being aided by escalating tension between Russia and NATO allies, but also by disappointing shale-output growth. Calls to the U.S. and OPEC+ to boost production may do little good, with OPEC still underdelivering on quotas at record levels. “Global interest rates remain the key risk to 2022 oil demand, we believe. A significant hike by the Federal Reserve may hinder global investments and drive lower emerging-market consumption of both refined products and crude oil.” DOE:
- Crude +4.514mm (+767k exp) - biggest build since Oct 2021
- Cushing -2.049mm - 7th straight weekly draw
- Gasoline -582k
- Distillates -584k
The official data confirmed API's large crude build andthe 7th straight week of inventory increases at Cushing... Cushing stocks are moving even lower, to their lowest since 2018. Bloomberg's Devika Krishna Kumar notes that crude inventories at Cushing, Oklahoma, plunged below 25 million barrels and are fast approaching operational lows. This has been a key reason for the steep backwardation in the front-month U.S. crude futures spread as traders worry about tight supplies. March is expected to bring some respite though, as refiners conduct seasonal maintenance and demand cools. US crude production was flat on the week.. U.S. crude imports from Russia averaged about 106,000 barrels a day last week. Volumes have remained muted in recent weeks after averaging zero for three weeks straight in January. It remains to be seen how flows will be impacted based on what kind of sanctions the U.S. imposes now that Russia has invaded Ukraine.
WTI Pares Gains After EIA Data Shows Large Crude Build -- West Texas Intermediate futures traded on the New York Mercantile Exchange slide below $96 barel (bbl) after weekly inventory data released late morning by the U.S. Energy Information Administration showed a second consecutive build in domestic crude oil inventories through the week ended Feb. 18, even as refiners picked up run rates to meet rebounding gasoline demand in the United States. Near 12:15 p.m. EST, front-month WTI futures reduced some of the sharp gains made overnight to trade near $95.80 bbl, still up 4% on the session, and international benchmark Brent crude gained more than $6 to $102.84 bbl. NYMEX March RBOB futures rallied 12.62 cents to $2.8515 gallon, with front-month ULSD futures adding 15.37 cents or 5% to $2.9829 gallon. EIA's inventory report might not have a lasting impact on prices this week amid an unprecedented military campaign launched by Russian President Vladimir Putin in Ukraine. Latest reports suggest Russian army have taken control of more than two-thirds of eastern Ukraine after quickly establishing air superiority over the country. Missile attacks have been launched against at least 17 cities from Kiev, the capital, to Odessa, a key seaport on the Black Sea. EIA data showed U.S. commercial crude stockpiles increased by a larger-than-expected 4.5 million bbl last week to 416 million bbl and are now about 9% below the five-year average. Analysts expected crude stockpiles would increase by just 300,000 bbl from the prior week. Oil stored at Cushing, Oklahoma, the delivery point for WTI futures, fell 2 million bbl from the previous week to 23.8 million bbl, EIA said in its weekly report. U.S. crude oil production was unchanged at 11.6 million barrels per day (bpd). A large crude build came despite domestic refiners having increased their run rates by 2.1% last week to 87.4% of capacity, processing 344,000 bpd more crude compared to the previous week. In the gasoline complex, commercial stockpiles fell 582,000 bbl to 246.5 million bbl compared with analyst expectations for inventories to have dropped by 1.5 million bbl. Demand for motor gasoline strengthened 87,000 bpd to 8.657 million bbl, suggesting demand has begun to gradually rebound from the winter wave of omicron infections. Distillate stocks fell by 584,000 bbl from the previous week to 119.7 million bbl, and are now about 18% below the five-year average, EIA said. Analysts expected distillates inventories would fall by 2 million bbl. Total commercial petroleum inventories decreased by 1.8 million bbl last week. Total products supplied over the last four-week period averaged 21.9 million bpd, up 12.1% from the same period last year. Over the past four weeks, gasoline supplied to the U.S. market averaged 8.6 million bpd, up 10.7% from the same period last year. Distillate fuel product supplied averaged 4.4 million bpd over the past four weeks, up 3.7% from the same period last year. Jet fuel product supplied was up 40.4% compared with the same four-week period last year.
Oil Fades From Highs After Sanctions Leave Out Oil Exports- After a historic trading session that sent oil prices above $100 barrel (bbl) in reaction to Russia's pre-dawn invasion of Ukraine, oil futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange and Brent crude traded on the Intercontinental Exchange settled Thursday with gains of about 2% amid signs that the United States and European allies would not consider sanctioning Russia's oil and gas exports in an effort to ensure adequate supplies on the global market but instead go after its financial, military and industrial sectors. Oil futures spiked more than 8% overnight after Russian President Vladimir Putin announced the beginning of a "special military operation" against Ukraine, a former Soviet state that had sought membership in the North Atlantic Treaty Organization in defiance of Moscow's objections. What started as an air-raid campaign in several Ukrainian cities quickly grew into a major offensive that gave Russia superiority over Ukrainian airspace in a matter of hours. Putin made his televised announcement before 6 a.m. local time, but Russians woke up to his speech repeated continuously on Russian stations through midmorning, while learning their currency, the ruble, fell to a historic low against the dollar. Some took to anti-war protests, but they were quickly dispersed by Russia's secret service. Alongside Saudi Arabia, Moscow leads a group of 23 oil exporters known as OPEC+, which has gradually boosted global production to meet soaring demand. Russia alone exports 7.5 million barrels per day (bpd) of crude and petroleum products, with 2.3 million bpd of those volumes destined for Western Europe and the United States. It is also the single biggest exporter of natural gas. Lost energy trade volume globally would lead to painful economic consequences for American and European consumers who are already struggling with spiking prices for gasoline and food. Russia is the world's leading exporter of wheat, with Ukraine the third largest exporter of the global staple food. Combined Russia and Ukraine account for 25% of global wheat production. U.S. sanctions stopped short of banning Russian oil and gas industries or from cutting Russia off from the SWIFT (Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication) global payment system. On the session, NYMEX West Texas Intermediate for April delivery settled $0.71 higher at $92.81 bbl after trading at $100.54 bbl, and international benchmark Brent finished just above $99 bbl, up $2.24, paring an overnight advance to $105.79 bbl. March RBOB futures added 4.57 cents to $2.7710 gallon, down from a $2.9149 overnight high, and front-month ULSD futures rallied 6.77 cents to $2.8969 gallon after trading at $3.0474 overnight.
Oil prices dip after soaring on Russia's invasion of Ukraine - Oil prices slipped Friday after sharp rises early in the session on concern over potential global supply disruptions from sanctions on major crude exporter Russia. The April Brent crude futures contract fell $1.15, or 1.2per cent, to settle at $97.93 a barrel, after climbing as high as $101.99. The more active May contract shed $1.30, or 1.4per cent, to $94.12. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude fell $1.22, or 1.3per cent, to settle at $91.59 a barrel, after hitting a session high of $95.64. For the week, Brent rose about 4.7per cent, while WTI was on track to rise about 0.6per cent. On Thursday, Russia's invasion of Ukraine boosted prices above $100 a barrel for the first time since 2014, with Brent touching $105, before paring gains by the close of trade. The assault was the biggest attack on a European state since World War Two, prompting tens of thousands of people to flee their homes. On Friday, Russian missiles pounded Kyiv, families cowered in shelters and authorities told residents to prepare Molotov cocktails to defend Ukraine's capital. On Thursday, U.S. President Joe Biden responded to the invasion with a wave of sanctions that impede Russia's ability to do business in major currencies along with sanctions against banks and state-owned enterprises. "As much as 2.3 million b/d of Russia's 4.6 million b/d of crude oil exports go to the West," Wood Mackenzie said in a note. "We are seeing slowdowns in Russian crude purchases. Until payment terms are clarified, further tightening in the supply and demand balance is expected." Biden said the United States is working with other countries on a combined release of additional oil from their strategic crude reserves. China has ramped up purchases into its oil reserves this year even as oil prices soared, despite calls from Washington for a global coordinated stocks release to help cool the market, industry data showed and traders said. Top buyers of Russian oil are struggling to secure guarantees at Western banks or find ships, sources told Reuters. A deal among OPEC+ oil producers is showing no cracks so far, OPEC+ sources told Reuters, and the group is likely to stick to a planned output rise of 400,000 barrels a day in April despite crude topping $100 a barrel. In an indication of future U.S. supply, the number of oil-directed drilling rigs rose by 2 to 522 in the week to Feb. 25, data from oil services firm Baker Hughes showed on Friday.
Impending Iran nuclear deal alarms Israel (AP) — While the world’s attention has been focused on Ukraine, the Biden administration also has been racing with world powers toward restoring the 2015 international nuclear deal with Iran. After months of negotiations in Vienna, the various sides have indicated a new deal is close, perhaps in the coming days. But instead of the “longer, stronger” agreement originally promised by the U.S., the deal is expected to do little more than reinstate the original pact, whose key restrictions on Iranian nuclear activity expire in a few years. This modest accomplishment appears to be the best the Biden administration can hope for at a time when it is restrained by Congress at home, and overwhelmed abroad with the Ukraine crisis and longer-term challenges such as China and climate change. But it is setting off alarm bells in Israel, whose leaders have grown increasingly vocal in their condemnations of a deal they fear will not prevent Iran from developing nuclear weapons. “The emerging deal, as it seems, is highly likely to create a more violent, more volatile Middle East,” Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett said this week, repeating his threat that Israel is not bound by the deal and is prepared to attack Iran if needed. Here is a closer look at the agreement and what lies ahead: The 2015 agreement, spearheaded by former President Barack Obama, aimed to prevent Iran from being able to build a nuclear bomb. It offered Iran relief from harsh economic sanctions in exchange for curbs of 10 to 15 years on its nuclear activities. Iran says its nuclear activities are peaceful. Critics, led by then-Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, complained the restrictions were temporary, not airtight and gave Iran a pathway to developing atomic weapons capability. They also argued that the deal, known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action or JCPOA, did not address Iran’s non-nuclear activity, including its support for regional proxies and its development of long-range missiles capable of delivering a bomb. At Netanyahu’s urging, President Donald Trump withdrew from the agreement in 2018, promising a campaign of “maximum pressure” on the Iranians. Despite tougher sanctions, that strategy appears to have backfired. The Iranian government, now under a more hard-line leader who was elected last year, remains firmly in power, and with the deal unraveling, Iran has raced ahead with uranium enrichment and other research far beyond the boundaries of the original agreement.Iran has shown little interest in seeking a longer-term agreement. Even if one could be reached, Biden would face a tough time implementing it. Under a 2015 U.S. law, any new agreement granting Iran relief from sanctions would require congressional approval, a process that would be slow and uncertain. Instead, the White House has signaled it plans to argue that any deal emerging from the Vienna talks would be simply “re-entering” the initial JCPOA. That could avert a battle with Congress but means that key aspects of the original deal, such as limits on uranium enrichment, would expire in 2025. The administration appears to have concluded that a flawed short-term deal is better than nothing at all.
Putin says he may recognize Ukraine breakaway regions "today" - CBS News — Russian President Vladimir Putin said during an extraordinary public meeting of his security council in Moscow on Monday that he would decide "today" whether to recognize the independence of two Russian-backed breakaway republics in the east of Ukraine. The U.S. warned last week that such a move would violate international law and would "necessitate a swift and firm response" from America and its allies. During the meeting, which appears to have been broadcast on Russian television hours after it actually occurred, members of the council made impassioned speeches in support of the move. "The goal of our meeting today is to listen to our colleagues and map out our next moves in this matter, meaning both the requests by the leaders of the Donetsk People's Republic and Luhansk People's Republic to Russia asking to recognize their sovereignty and the resolution by the Russian State Duma on the same subject with the call for the head of state to recognize the independence and sovereignty of the Donetsk People's Republic and Luhansk People's republic," Putin opened the meeting by saying. At the end of the event, he told the council: "I have heard your opinions. The decision will be taken today."
Russia recognises Ukraine separatist regions as independent states - - Russian President Vladimir Putin has recognised breakaway rebel regions in Ukraine's east as independent states, effectively ending peace talks there. The self-declared people's republics of Donetsk and Luhansk are home to Russia-backed rebels who have been fighting Ukrainian forces since 2014. Russian troops have been ordered to perform so-called "peacekeeping functions" in both regions. Western powers fear it paves the way for Russia to enter Ukraine's east. The extent of the mission remains unclear, but if troops cross the border it would be the first time Russian soldiers have officially entered rebel-held territory. Russia's parliament is expected to back treaties with the separatist regions which would give Moscow the right to build military bases in Donetsk and Luhansk. In recent years, Russian passports have been given out to large numbers of people in both territories, and Western allies fear Russia could now move military units in under the guise of protecting its citizens. Speaking in an hour-long televised national address immediately after Monday's announcement, Mr Putin said modern Ukraine had been "created" by Soviet Russia, referring to the country as "ancient Russian lands". In his hour-long address on Monday, Russia's leader referred to Russia having been "robbed" during the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, accused Ukraine of being a "US colony" run by a puppet government, and alleged that people were suffering under its current leadership. He painted the 2014 protests which toppled Ukraine's pro-Russia leader as a coup.
Putin ratifies treaties with breakaway Ukraine regions -Russian President Vladimir Putin has ratified treaties with the Russian separatist-held Ukrainian regions he officially recognized Monday, including areas the Ukrainian military has possession over, Reuters reported on Tuesday.Russia’s lower house voted to pass the treaties regarding the Donetsk People's Republic and the Luhansk People's Republic regions in eastern Ukraine on Tuesday.The treaties would allow Russian troops to enter the Donbas areas, build military bases and move forward with economic integration, according to Reuters. A Kremlin spokesperson said Russia recognized all the territory that the areas claimed in 2014 after Russia invaded Crimea. Since 2014, Ukraine forces have been able to take over much of the territory the Russian-backed separatist said they had control over. Multiple countries, including the U.S., have begun preparing sanctions against Russia for the aggressive moves.Ukraine’s president said Monday the country would not give any territory to Russia even as Moscow's forces prepared to move in. Countries including Hungary, Poland and Romania are preparing to take thousands of Ukrainian refugees if a war breaks out.
Ukraine crisis: Putin sends Russian tanks, hardware into Donetsk -report - Columns of military vehicles including tanks were seen in the early hours of Tuesday on the outskirts of Donetsk, the capital of one of the breakaway east Ukraine regions, after Russian President Vladimir Putin recognized the regions as independent states. The Reuters reporter saw about five tanks in a column on the edge of the city and two more in another part of town. No insignia were visible, but the appearance of the tanks came hours after Putin signed friendship treaties with the two separatist regions and ordered Russian troops to deploy on what Moscow called a peacekeeping operation. Reuters reporters in Donetsk had not seen tanks on the streets in previous days. Russian President Vladimir Putin recognized two breakaway regions in eastern Ukraine as independent on Monday and ordered the Russian army to launch what Moscow called a peacekeeping operation into the area, upping the ante in a crisis the West fears could unleash a major war. Footage of Russian troops and tanks in Donetsk, in eastern Ukraine, has been shared on social media by Ukrainian lawmaker Lisa Yasko. "Russian social media channels spread this video of tanks in Donetsk," Yasko wrote. "God, please don’t allow this war again… Sanctions NOW!"
Putin orders Russian forces to Ukraine rebel regions: Live - Vladimir Putin has ordered Russian troops to “maintain peace” in two breakaway regions in eastern Ukraine, hours after the Russian president recognised Donetsk and Luhansk as independent entities.In two official decrees, Putin on Monday instructed the country’s defence ministry to assume “the function of maintaining peace” in the eastern regions. In an earlier televised address, Putin said he had deemed “it necessary to make a decision that should have been made a long time ago – to immediately recognise the independence and sovereignty of the Donetsk People’s Republic and the Luhansk People’s Republic”. The West has repeatedly warned Russia not to recognise the separatist regions in Donetsk and Luhansk – a move that effectively buries a fragile peace process in the region. Putin’s announcement paved the way for Russia to openly send troops and weapons to the long-running conflict pitting Ukrainian forces against Moscow-backed rebels. The United States said it supports Ukraine’s call for an urgent UN Security Council meeting, calling Russia’s recognition of two Ukrainian breakaway regions an “unprovoked violation of Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity”. “The Security Council must demand that Russia respect the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Ukraine, a UN Member State,” US ambassador to the UN Linda Thomas-Greenfield said in a statement.
Russia Moves Troops into Donbass --- Yves Smith - Tulsi Gabbard: “This war and suffering could have easily been avoided if Biden Admin/NATO had simply acknowledged Russia’s legitimate security concerns regarding Ukraine’s becoming a member of NATO, which would mean US/NATO forces right on Russia’s border.” Gabbard is correct: the West did not have to wind up at this juncture with Russia over Ukraine. But surprisingly, some key press outlets are kinda-sorta acknowledging that the quick Russian movement of soldiers and equipment into the Donbass falls into “one man’s terrorist is another man’s freedom fighter” terrain. This is the lead item from the New York Times’ daily e-mail summary:This is remarkably measured for a house organ of the military-intel state. We’ll turn to Putin’s statements on Russia’s intentions soon, since some of the more, erm, ambitious ones seem to have been overlooked. However, the flip side is that that if you accept the precedent that the US used in Kosovo, it’s hard to depict Russia sending its military into Donbass as an invasion when it was invited in.1Mind you, additional actions by Russia beyond what are very narrowly necessary to defend and assist the people of Donbass can be depicted as aggression against Ukraine. Here Putin appears to be trying to tread a fine line. As we have said repeatedly, Putin does not have any interest in conquering Ukraine. However, he also wants Ukraine no longer to serve as a staging ground for US/NATO operations against Russia. How to achieve the latter end is not at all obvious.From Putin’s speech of February 24: Those who aspire to global dominance have publicly designated Russia as their enemy. They did so with impunity. Make no mistake, they had no reason to act this way..Even now, with NATO’s eastward expansion the situation for Russia has been becoming worse and more dangerous by the year. Moreover, these past days NATO leadership has been blunt in its statements that they need to accelerate and step up efforts to bring the alliance’s infrastructure closer to Russia’s borders. In other words, they have been toughening their position. We cannot stay idle and passively observe these developments. This would be an absolutely irresponsible thing to do for us….The purpose of this operation is to protect people who, for eight years now, have been facing humiliation and genocide perpetrated by the Kiev regime. To this end, we will seek to demilitarise and denazify Ukraine, as well as bring to trial those who perpetrated numerous bloody crimes against civilians, including against citizens of the Russian Federation.It is not our plan to occupy the Ukrainian territory. We do not intend to impose anything on anyone by force.
Ukraine Calls Up Reservists as Russian Troops Pour Into Breakaway Region; West Steps Up Sanctions – WSJ - Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky ordered the mobilization of reservists as Russian troops poured into Ukraine’s eastern Donbas region and Western nations announced measures to punish Moscow for recognizing two Russian-controlled statelets there as independent, signaling the potential rising economic price on Russia for further aggression.Mr. Zelensky, in a televised address, said Russia’s threat to Ukraine’s sovereignty is forcing him to recall contract military personnel to active duty and to mobilize members of the newly created territorial defense brigades for exercises. He said Ukraine wouldn’t carry out a general mobilization of civilians, urging them to continue normal life.“We are certain of ourselves, we are certain in our country, we are certain in our victory,” he said. “We are here to overcome, not to cry.”Earlier Tuesday, Germany said it halted moves to open the Nord Stream 2 pipeline that would allow Russia to bypass Ukraine in exporting natural gas to Europe.The Biden administration, which on Tuesday characterized the Russian troop movements as the start of an invasion, announced sanctions targeting two Russian financial institutions. The U.S. also is imposing sanctions on Russia’s sovereign debt, which President Biden said would cut the government off from Western financing, and on Russian elites and their families.The European Union proposed a ban on purchases of Russian bonds, sanctions on all members of the Russian Parliament who voted in favor of supporting recognition of the two breakaway areas and an asset freeze for three Russian banks with links to the two statelets.Japan, Australia and Canada also announced sanctions against Russia. Prime Minister Fumio Kishida said Japan, like the U.S., would ban the trade of new Russian sovereign debt and sanction individuals connected to the breakaway regions. Prime Minister Scott Morrison said Australia would impose travel bans and targeted financial sanctions on eight members of Russia’s Security Council, saying those officials have helped to justify Russia’s aggressive posture toward Ukraine. Canada, meanwhile, said its sanctions target state-backed Russian lenders and include a ban on Canadian investors from purchasing Moscow-issued debt. Kyiv and its Western partners were waiting to see whether the Russian forces entering the Donetsk and Luhansk “people’s republics” that Russian President Vladimir Putin recognized on Monday would try to punch through Ukrainian positions in the coming days and try to seize the two-thirds of the region that they claim but don’t control, including the cities of Mariupol, Kramatorsk and Severodonetsk. That would trigger yet another round of even harsher measures, Western officials said.
Ukraine declares state of emergency, tells citizens to leave Russia - Ukraine on Wednesday declared a 30-day state of emergency and urged Ukrainian citizens in Russia to leave the country immediately as Kyiv takes steps to prepare for a potential further invasion by Russia. All men eligible to fight were ordered to participate in compulsory military service by Ukraine, Reuters reported. The development is another indicator that the door to diplomacy is closing and that Ukraine is now readying itself for possible armed conflict. "Predicting what might be the next step of Russia, the separatists or the personal decisions of the Russian president — I cannot say," Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said, according to Reuters. The declaration comes as new satellite imagery taken on Tuesday by Maxar Technologies indicated a new deployment of military vehicles and troop tents and shelters in southern Belarus less than 30 miles from the Ukrainian border. Officials have estimated that up to 190,000 Russian troops had been amassed near the Ukrainian border. Russian officials claimed last week that they had started pulling back some of their troops, but NATO and U.S. officials said that they believed Russia had only appeared to do the opposite. The New York Times noted that the new deployment is most likely coming from Russia. The declaration of a state of emergency also comes as Russia recognized two breakaway regions of Ukraine on Monday as independent and Russian President Vladimir Putin announced troops would be entering the two separatist areas.
Syria supports Russia's recognition of breakaway territories in Ukraine -Syria on Tuesday announced support of Russian President Vladimir Putinfor recognizing two breakaway territories in Ukraine as independent.Syria's foreign minister, Faisal Mekdad, issued direct support of Putin's recognition Monday of the Donetsk People's Republic and Luhansk People’s Republic in eastern Ukraine, Reuters reported.Mekdad also appeared to blame Western nations for tensions in Europe."What the West is doing against Russia is similar to what it did against Syria during the terrorist war," Mekdad said on state-run TV, according to Reuters.Russia has allied with Syria since intervening in the Middle Eastern nation's ongoing civil war in 2015. Moscow has backed Syrian President Bashar Assad in the war effort despite alleged human rights abuses conducted by his regime.Other Russian allies have been more hesitant to outright support Putin's move to increase tensions in Ukraine.Azerbaijan and Armenia made no mention of Putin's recognition of the territories, The Associated Press reported. Belarus said it gave “respect and understanding" to Russia's decision, and Kazakhstan said recognizing the regions was not on the nation's agenda.
EU nations vote unanimously to impose Russia sanctions -Members of the European Union voted unanimously Tuesday to impose sanctions against Russia after President Vladimir Putin deployed military troops into eastern Ukraine, The Associated Press reported. The EU set in place sanctions that will affect legislators in the Duma, or Russian parliament, and other Russian officials who were in favor of recognizing the separatist-held sections of eastern Ukraine. The sanctions will bar Russia from access to some EU services and limit the country’s access to capital and financial markets across the continent. “This package of sanctions … will hurt Russia and it will hurt a lot,” said EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell in Paris, after he chaired a meeting of EU foreign ministers. Germany acted separately in response to Moscow's long-anticipated military deployment by pausing its plan to certify the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline out of Russia, which would have increased Europe’s reliance on Russia for its energy sources. And Prime Minister Boris Johnson of the U.K. shared with the public that the country placed sanctions on five banks and three wealthy figures in Russia. The U.S. has responded to the troop deployments in accord with the EU, with the White House classifying the move as an invasion of Ukraine. Further sanctions out of Washington are anticipated. “If Russia decides once again to use force against Ukraine, there will be even stronger sanctions, even a higher price to pay,” promised NATO chief Jens Stoltenberg, a native of Norway.
5 Commodities That Could Explode As The Ukraine Crisis Escalates - Here are 5 key commodities that are likely to be hardest hit if Russia invades Ukraine.
- #1. Aluminum. Russia accounts for ~6% of global aluminum supply, and an escalation of tensions between Russia and Ukraine raises the likelihood of a supply shock in an already tight aluminum market.According to the U.S. Geological Survey, Russia made roughly 3.7 million metric tons of aluminum in 2021, with world production of the metal amounting to about 68 million metric tons. Data by CIA World Factbookshows that China is the world’s biggest aluminum producer, making about 39 million metric tons in 2021, but Russia is also a large exporter of the commodity.Aluminum prices have risen about 15% year to date, with prices near multiyear highs, but could still rise further. Jefferies analyst Christopher LaFemini says that even if geopolitical risks in Europe subside, aluminum prices probably would decline at first before rising again as the market deficit likely would persist
- #2. Oil. Russia is an oil and gas powerhouse, with the country pumping about 9 million barrels of crude oil a day. In comparison, the U.S. pumps about 11.6 million barrels while global oil production runs to roughly ~96 million barrels per day. Benchmark international crude oil prices are up about 20% year-to-date to trade near seven-year highs, with the oil markets facing supply headwinds.
- #3. Natural Gas. Russia is a leading producer of natural gas, pumping about 639 billion cubic meters of natural gas in 2021, or nearly 17% of global production of 3.854 trillion cubic meters as per BP data. European natural gas prices have hit new highs after a pipeline that brings Russian gas to Germany switched flows to the east. Westward gas flows through the 2,607-mile-long Yamal-Europe pipeline, one of the major routes for Russian gas to Europe, have been gradually falling, a move the Kremlin says has no political implications.
- #4. Copper USGS data shows that Russia produced 920,000 tonnes of refined copper in 2021, about 3.5% of the world total, out of which Nornickel produced 406,841 tonnes.UMMC and Russian Copper Company are the other two major producers, with Asia and Europe being Russia’s key export markets. Prices of green metals, including copper, are projected to reach historical peaks for an unprecedented, sustained period in a net-zero emissions scenario. Copper prices are sitting at all-time highs thanks to surging demand, especially in developed countries, with increasing usage in electric vehicles and wind farms, solar panels and the power grid, combined with tight supply.
- #5. Cobalt. According to data from the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), Russia produced 7,600 tonnes of cobalt last year, more than 4% of the world total.However, Russia was a distant second to the Democratic Republic of Congo which produced 120,000 tonnes. Nornickel (GMKN.MM) is the largest producer in Russia, selling 5,000 tonnes in 2021. Nornickel sells most of its output to Europe. Nornickel is also the world’s top producer of refined nickel, producing 193,006 tonnes in 2021 or about 7% of global mine production, estimated at 2.7 million tonnes. The company sells to global industrial consumers under long-term contracts.
Some Additional Comments on Russia’s Ukraine Surprise by Yves Smith --The Russian gambit of recognizing the separatist regions of Donetsk and Luhansk blindsided the West, to the extent that some pundits are still braying that Russia will invade Ukraine, as if it wants Ukraine, as opposed to making it untenable for the US/NATO to continue to use it as a staging ground to threaten Russia.I thought it would be useful to clear up some points where the press reporting has been less than stellar. Most of the information is also found in our posts in Links today, but we thought we’d highlight some issues:
- 1. The Germans have not cancelled Nord Stream 2 but have instead put it on hold. We pointed that out in comments yesterday and some outlets, from the Wall Street Journal to Al Jazeera, made that explicit.
- 2. The EU will have difficulty replacing Russian fuel, even with LNG. From Reuters:“Russia (provides) I think 30-40% of the supply to Europe. There is no single country that can replace that kind of volume, there isn’t the capacity to do that from LNG,” [Qatar energy minsiter Saad al-]Kaabi told reporters at a gas conference in Doha.“Most of the LNG are tied to long-term contracts and destinations that are very clear. So, to replace that sum of volume that quickly is almost impossible,” he said.As I read it, the EU, particularly Germany, has a short-term problem of filling a supply shortage if there’s a cold snap before winter is over, since inventories are already low. And even if the EU can arrange to get more fuel before next winter, it certainly won’t be at the old Russian price. While the US financial press is keen about the opportunities for frackers, US courts have increasingly been sympathetic to environmental objections to pipelines. The Supreme Court just refused to hear an appeal by the operator of the Dakota Access Pipeline to sidestep certain environmental provisions, for instance. So protracted and occasionally successful fights over pipelines could throw a spanner in shale gas expansion hopes.
- 3. The Russian recognition is not without precedent. NATO describes how its role as a “peace keeper” preceded the establishment of Kosovo. The State Department write-up is oddly silent on details; readers said, and I am not able to confirm in reasonable time thanks to the terrible state of search engines, that the domestic mechanism was a vote of the Kosovo parliament. I am also told that Russia had at the time depicted this approach as inadequate, and so wanted a referendum in Crimea on the specific question of joining Russia.Note that there had been some acknowledgement of the separatists. The Donbass and Luhansk “republics” had been observers at the Minsk negotiations and even signed the agreement despite having no official role. Keep in mind there were also other means to address the concerns of the separatists, as the example of Quebec shows: more autonomy and specific protections for the aggrieved population.
- 4. Even Bloomberg is pointing out that the new US sanctions are wet noodle-level:U.S. President Joe Biden’s debut set of sanctions on Russia for its actions over disputed Ukrainian territory hit markets with a whimper and were quickly criticized as limited in scope.Instead of a sweeping package that crippled top Russian banks, cut its financial transactions off from the global economy, or personally singled out President Vladimir Putin, the U.S. and its allies settled on a modest “first tranche” of penalties. Markets responded with a shrug.
Hungary sending troops close to Ukraine border --The Hungarian defense ministry on Tuesday announced in a Facebook post that it would be sending troops close to the Hungarian-Ukrainian border, which is situated in the northeastern region of Hungary, Reuters reported.. The defense ministry did not quantify the number of troops that would be moving toward its border with Ukraine but noted that they were being deployed for humanitarian and security purposes, the news wire noted. Hungarian Defense Minister Tibor Benko said that in the next few days military equipment would be making its way toward the eastern side of the country, Reuters reported, citing Hungarian news outlet MTI. He explained that the military moves were being conducted for preventative measures in case conflict in Ukraine moves east to west, possibly happening close to Hungary’s borders, the news outlet noted. The development comes as two regions of eastern Ukraine were recognized as independent by Moscow on Monday and Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered troops into the two areas — the so-called Donetsk People's Republic and the Luhansk People's Republic — for “peacekeeping functions.” President Biden announced sanctions against Russia later on Tuesday in prepared remarks, including against Russian elites and their families, sovereign debt and two Russian financial institutions. The president said he believed that Russia’s moves in Ukraine were only the start of an invasion into Ukraine. “He is setting up a rationale to take more territory by force, in my view,” Biden said about Putin as he delivered remarks on Tuesday afternoon. “This is the beginning of a Russian invasion of Ukraine.”
Mariupol won’t give up’: Ukrainians defy Russian invasion threat – Waving blue and yellow Ukrainian flags and singing a patriotic military song, hundreds of residents of the once largely pro-Russian city of Mariupol gathered in the central Theatre Square with a defiant message for President Vladimir Putin: Russia is not welcome here.On Tuesday, as people stopped for pictures next to a sign calling Moscow an aggressor, the possibility of an advance by Russian-backed separatists was a bitter pill to swallow. The port city of nearly 500,000 people in the Donetsk region of eastern Ukraine was briefly controlled by the rebels in 2014 and has seen significant waves of violence since.“I came to show that we love Ukraine and we don’t want Russian ‘peace’ here,” said Andriy Voytsekhovskyy, 28, a painter and skater.“I think it’s complete nonsense what Putin is doing, but Mariupol is, and always always has been, a city that doesn’t give up.”A long Monday night saw Putin recognise the independence of the so-called breakaway republics of Donetsk and Luhansk and move what he calls peacekeeping troops in. US President Joe Biden has called it the “beginning of a Russian invasion”.Russia has since said it will support the territorial claims of its proxy states in east Ukraine, including to parts they do not currently control, increasing the likelihood of a larger war in the near future. Putin has also asked the Duma to authorise the use of troops abroad.Just 20km (12.4 miles) from the front line and vulnerable to attack from the Sea of Azov, the strategic port city of Mariupol is among the areas most at risk from a further escalation in fighting.Yet a common refrain among locals is that the further you get from the front line, the more you see people panicking.“Being inside a war zone, there’s a sense of myopia and a very human kind of optimism that nothing is going to happen – you look at the sun shining, people are going about their daily lives. It might create a false sense of security,” said Peter Zalmayev, director of the Eurasia Democracy Initiative, a think-tank on post-Soviet states.“People are used to war in Ukraine, but they’re used to it not really affecting their daily lives much. That could be about to change.”
Putin's tanks roll into Ukraine over Belarus border as he launches full-scale invasion - Russia has today launched all-out war on Ukraine. Missiles and bombs rained from the sky, tanks rolled across the border from Belarus, troops parachuted down on eastern regions and explosions were seen across the country after Vladimir Putin personally gave the order for his forces to attack. 'Hundreds' of Ukrainian troops were killed in early clashes, Kiev said, as the fight came to them on all fronts at a moment's notice. Cruise missiles, guided bombs and GRAD rockets took out targets from east to west - aimed at airfields, military bases, ammo dumps, and command posts. Five Russian jets were reportedly shot out of the sky over the Donbass before Moscow boasted of taking out all anti-aircraft defences, giving them control of the skies. Ukrainian border guards said they had come under attack by heavy artillery, tanks and troops from Russia and Belarus - as Belarusian dictator Alexander Lukashenko threw his forces into the fight. Luhansk, Sumy, Kharkiv and Chernihiv in the east of Ukraine all reported coming under attack, but blasts were also reported in the west - in Zhytomyr and Lviv, close to the border with Poland. Extraordinary video footage showed what appeared to be a cruise missile slamming into Ivano-Frankivsk airport, also in the west. Meanwhile pro-Russian rebel forces pushed out from the occupied Donbass region, capturing two villages and claiming to have shot two Ukrainian jets out of the skies. The port city of Odessa, where Ukraine's main naval base is located, also came under attack - though reports of an amphibious assault It came after Vladimir Putin gave an extraordinary early-morning address to the Russian nation - delivered during a UN meeting aimed at avoiding war - in which he declared a 'special military operation' to 'de-militarise' and 'de-Nazify' Ukraine in what amounted to a outright declaration of war. The Russian strongman also issued a chilling warning to any country thinking of coming to Ukraine's aid, vowing 'consequences greater than any you have faced in history'. Ukrainian President Zelensky then followed with his own address - delivered from home - in which he declared martial law and vowed to resist the Russian attack, come what may. 'Don't panic. We are strong. We are ready for everything. We will defeat everyone. Because we are Ukraine,' he said. But as Russian bombs fell, people's nerve broke. Images from Kiev in the early hours showed highways out of the city gridlocked as people tried to flee - but with the whole country under simultaneous attack, there was little safety to be found. Others reported sheltering in subways and basements as air-raid sirens wailed. The invasion marks the most concerted attempt to up-end world order since the end of the Cold War, and risks sparking the bloodies conflict in Europe since the end of the Second World War. Western leaders lined up to condemn Russia's actions in the early hours, with security councils convened the world over to mount a response. Heavy sanctions are expected to follow, along with more shipments of military equipment - provided they can be brought into the country.
Russia presses invasion to outskirts of Ukrainian capital (AP) — Russia pressed its invasion of Ukraine to the outskirts of the capital Friday after unleashing airstrikes on cities and military bases and sending in troops and tanks from three sides in an attack that could rewrite the global post-Cold War security order. Explosions sounded before dawn in Kyiv as Western leaders scheduled an emergency meeting and Ukraine's president pleaded for international help. The nature of the explosions was not immediately clear, but the blasts came amid signs that the capital and largest Ukrainian city was increasingly threatened following a day of fighting that left more than 100 Ukrainians dead. Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said the government had information that “subversive groups” were encroaching on the city, and U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said Kyiv “could well be under siege" in what U.S. officials believe is a brazen attempt by Russian President Vladimir Putin to dismantle the government and replace it with his own regime. U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin told lawmakers on a phone call Thursday evening that Russian mechanized forces that entered from Belarus were about 20 miles from Kyiv, according to a person familiar with the call. The assault, anticipated for weeks by the U.S. and Western allies and undertaken by Putin in the face of international condemnation and cascading sanctions, amounts to the largest ground war in Europe since World War II. Russian missiles bombarded cities and military bases in the first day of the attack, and Ukraine officials said they had lost control of the decommissioned Chernobyl nuclear power plant, scene of the world’s worst nuclear disaster. Civilians piled into trains and cars to flee and patrons of a hotel were directed into a shelter as explosions sounded in Kyiv. “Russia has embarked on a path of evil, but Ukraine is defending itself and won’t give up its freedom,” Zelenskyy tweeted. His grasp on power increasingly tenuous, he called Thursday for even more severe sanctions than the ones imposed by Western allies and ordered a full military mobilization that would last 90 days. Zelenskyy said in a video address that 137 “heroes,” including 10 military officers, had been killed and 316 people wounded. The dead included border guards on the Zmiinyi Island in the Odesa region, which was taken over by Russians. He concluded an emotional speech by saying that “the fate of the country depends fully on our army, security forces, all of our defenders.” He also said the country had heard from Moscow that ”they want to talk about Ukraine’s neutral status."
Hundreds reported dead in first day of Russia-Ukraine war -Ukraine is in the grips of a full-scale war after Russia launched large-scale bombing raids early Thursday morning local time, in the biggest military operation by Russia since the Afghanistan war. While it is not clear whether the Russian military has deliberately targeted civilian infrastructure, bombs have fallen on multiple residential complexes, killing and wounding civilians. Masses of people have sought refuge in bombing shelters and subway stations; others are desperately trying to flee the country. According to Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky, 137 people, including 10 officers, have been killed, and 316 have been wounded. The Russian Defense Ministry has published no casualty numbers. The Ukrainian army claims to have destroyed 7 Russian planes, 7 helicopters and over 30 tanks and to have killed at least 450 Russian soldiers. As of this writing, Russian troops are advancing on Kiev. Within hours after the beginning of the attack, the Russian army had taken Kiev’s airport and parts of south Ukraine. They have also taken the area around the Chernobyl Exclusion Zone, the site of the world’s worst nuclear disaster in 1986. Russia’s Black Sea Fleet has reportedly also launched attacks in the Black Sea south of Odessa. Reports of Russian ground troops invading from Belarus have been denied by both the Russian and Belarusian governments. The armed forces of the self-proclaimed “People’s Republics” of Donetsk and Lugansk (Luhansk), which were formed in the wake of the US-backed far-right coup in Kiev in February 2014 and recognized as “independent” by Putin on Monday, have joined the Russian army in fighting the Ukrainian military. The Pentagon claims that Russia dropped 160 missiles on Ukraine in the first day of the war. The Russian Defense Ministry declared on Thursday night that its “goals” for the day had been achieved, with over 80 military targets eliminated. In-fighting seems to be ongoing in almost every part of the country. The Ukrainian government has mobilized the entire population, announcing that everyone would be given weapons and announcing an amnesty for all those willing to fight. Far-right forces that have played a critical role in the 2014 coup and the war preparations over the past eight years have taken to arms, while former President Petro Poroshenko appears to have set up an independent military command center in Kiev to coordinate the capital’s defense.
Latvia delivers Stinger missiles to Ukraine - On February 23 Latvia delivered “Stinger” anti-aircraft missile systems to Ukraine in order to strengthen the air defence capabilities of the Ukrainian Armed Forces and the ability to protect its population from Russian aggression. The endowment to Ukraine was accompanied in Latvia by Baiba Bļodniece, Parliamentary Secretary of the Ministry of Defence of Latvia. During handover to the Ukrainian Armed Forces Ukraine it was received by the Ambassador of Latvia to Ukraine Ilgvars Kļava and the Defence Attaché of Latvia Colonel Aleksandrs Holmanovs, “Latvia supports Ukraine and its efforts to protect their country, so we have sent endowment – the “Stinger” missile system, so that, if necessary, the Ukrainian Armed Forces can protect their citizens, schools, hospitals and kindergartens,” emphasizes B. Bļodniece, Parliamentary Secretary of the Ministry of Defence of Latvia. “At the same time Latvia hopes that Ukraine will never have to use these missile systems.” It has already been reported that in January Latvia’s Defence Minister Artis Pabriks announced that in response to Russia's aggressive actions, Latvia would send “Stinger” anti-aircraft missile system, individual equipment and dry food supplies to Ukraine. On February 15, in a closed session, the Cabinet of Ministers of Latvia supported the endowment delivering to the Ukrainian Armed Forces. Given the legitimate concerns and the need to strengthen Ukraine's defence capabilities, the Baltic defence ministers at a meeting in Lithuania at the end of last year emphasized their immediate readiness to provide non-military and military support to Ukraine, including the supply of arms.
Putin calls on Ukraine military to overthrow government -- Russian President Vladimir Putin on Friday called for Ukrainian military forces to overthrow their own government as Russia conducts a full-fledged military invasion in the European nation. Putin said in a recorded address filmed before meeting with the Russian Security Council that Ukrainians need to "take power into your own hands" and overthrow a government he dubbed "neo-Nazis," Politico reported. “It seems that it will be easier for us to come to an agreement than with this gang of drug addicts and neo-Nazis, who occupied Kyiv and took the entire Ukrainian people hostage,” he said, according to Politico. Putin also said Russian forces were fighting bravely for "our fatherland" and claimed Ukrainian fighters had launched artillery strikes from Kyiv to provoke Russian forces, The Guardian reported. The fighting in Ukraine has drawn closer to Kyiv, the capital of Ukraine where the government led by President Volodymyr Zelensky is operating from. Zelensky, who is Jewish, posted a video before fighting began directed to the Russian people, in which he countered Putin's claims about his country. "You are told we are Nazis. But can a people support Nazis that gave more than 8 million lives for the victory over Nazism? How can I be a Nazi?" he said. "Tell my grandpa, who went through the whole war in the infantry of the Soviet Army and died as a colonel in independent Ukraine.”
Ukrainian central bank suspends electronic cash transfers, bolstering the use case for crypto --Ukraine's central bank is cracking down on digital money transfers in one of the latest measures implemented in connection with a nationwide declaration of martial law. The National Bank of Ukraine ordered electronic money (e-money) issuers to suspend the issuance of e-money and the replenishment of electronic wallets with e-money. The written order also indicated that the distribution of e-money was temporarily off-limits. The reference to electronic money likely refers to fiat currencies held in digital accounts through platforms like Venmo or PayPal. This is one among many new rules rolled out by the country's central bank as Russian forces lay siege across Ukraine. The National Bank of Ukraine released a statement Thursday with a spate of resolutions, including an order to suspend the foreign exchange market, limit cash withdrawals and prohibit the issuance of foreign currency from retail bank accounts. As Ukraine cracks down on pathways to cash and Moscow unleashes airstrikes and ground troops, some Ukrainians are instead turning to cryptocurrencies. Kuna, a popular Ukrainian crypto exchange, shows that domestic buyers are paying a premium for Tether's USDT stablecoin, which is pegged to the price of the U.S. dollar. "We don't trust the government. We don't trust the banking system. We don't trust the local currency," said Michael Chobanian, founder of Kuna, in an interview with Coindesk. "The majority of people have nothing else to choose apart from crypto." Tether is the most popular stablecoin by market cap at nearly $80 billion, and unlike cryptocurrencies such as bitcoin and ethereum — which have experienced a great deal of volatility in recent weeks amid growing geopolitical tensions — tether, like other stablecoins of its kind, is generally pretty steady in value. At the current exchange rate, however, the price for 1 USDT is roughly 32 Ukrainian hryvnia (the national currency), or $1.10, thanks to increased demand. For months, Ukrainian leaders have been looking to rebrand as a mecca for digital currencies. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy signed a law in 2021 that paved the way for the country's central bank to issue its own digital currency, and the president and parliament recently came to terms on a law to legalize and regulate cryptocurrency. On an official state visit to the U.S. in August 2021, Zelenskyy spoke of Ukraine's budding "legal innovative market for virtual assets" as a selling point for investment, and Minister of Digital Transformation Mykhailo Fedorov said the country was modernizing its payments market so that its national bank would be able to issue digital currency. Before the Russian attack, Ukraine had plans to open the cryptocurrency market to businesses and investors, according to the Kyiv Post. Top state officials have also been touting their crypto street cred to investors and venture capital funds in Silicon Valley — but the Russian invasion has pulled focus from these efforts.
UK Pushing To Kick Russia Out Of SWIFT, But Germany Says No -Yesterday we reported that in an unexpected twist, Russia's Ministry Of Finance had submitted a bitcoin bill proposal, surprising because until now Russia's central bank has called for a complete ban on the trading and mining of bitcoin, setting up a conflict with the Ministry of Finance, which has been far more favorably positioned vis-a-vis cryptos.One reason for the favorable view by the Russian Ministry is that it has long been suggested that the west could expel Russia from SWIFT, effectively kicking Russia out of the entire dollar-payment system, and leaving Russia with few payment alternatives, one of which would be of course bitcoin.Well, adding fuel to the fire, moments ago the FT reported that UK prime minister Boris Johnson was pushing “very hard” for Russia to be ejected from the Swift international payments system, "a move that would deliver a heavy blow to the country’s banks and its ability to trade beyond its borders."“The PM is very keen on this — he’s pushing it very hard,” said one British official, referring to his efforts to eject Russia from Swift. Johnson also raised the idea at a meeting with City of London executives on Wednesday. A similar appeal to kick Russia out of SWIFT was echoed moments ago by Ukraine foreign minister Dmytro Kuleba: I will not be diplomatic on this. Everyone who now doubts whether Russia should be banned from SWIFT has to understand that the blood of innocent Ukrainian men, women and children will be on their hands too. However, in an even more surprising twist, the FT also reports that Olaf Scholz, German chancellor, "warned Johnson on Thursday that his country would not support such a dramatic move and neither would the EU, according to officials close to sanctions negotiations." A German official declined to comment, saying only that “all options are still on the table”.Johnson - as well as US president Joe Biden - has faced criticism in the UK for deploying what critics described as “peashooter” sanctions in response to the first stage of Russian aggression in Ukraine; he is now trying to push western colleagues to deploy very tough reprisals.
These companies have the most to lose from Russia's attack on Ukraine - International companies that hold a major presence in Russia are bracing for more sanctions from Western countries.Russia has already paid a price for its aggression: the country's stock markets and currency have tanked this week after President Vladimir Putin ordered troops into Ukraine.Sanctions from the United States and European nations intensified Thursday as Western nations' leaders condemned Russia's actions.Putin warned Russian business leaders on Thursday that he expected further "restrictions" on the economy, but called for business to work "in solidarity" with the government.Here are some companies with a significant presence in Russia:
- The German chemicals maker BASF (BASFY) co-owns Wintershall Dea, one of the financial backers of the suspended Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline, with Russian billionaire Mikhail Fridman's LetterOne investor group. It says it generates 1% of group sales from Russia.
- British oil company BP (BP) is the largest foreign investor in Russia with a 19.75% stake in the country's national oil company Rosneft. It also holds stakes in several other oil and gas projects in Russia.
- Coca-Cola HBC bottles Coke for Russia, Ukraine and much of Central, Eastern Europe. It counts Russia among its largest markets and employs 7,000 people there.
- Nestle The Swiss consumer goods company had six factories in Russia as of 2020, including plants making confectionery and drinks, according to its website. Its 2020 sales from Russia were worth about $1.7 billion.
- TotalEnergies -The French oil company is one of the biggest investors in Russia with a 19.4% stake in Russia's Novatek, a 20% interest in the Yamal LNG joint venture, 21.6% of Arctic LNG 2, a 20% stake in the onshore Kharyaga oil field and various holdings in the country's renewables, refining and chemicals sectors, according to its website.
- ExxonMobil. The American oil giant has more than 1,000 employees in Russia, and has been in the country for over 25 years. Its subsidiary, Exxon Neftegas Limited (ENL), has a 30% stake in Sakhalin-1 — a vast oil and natural gas project located off Sakhalin Island in the Russian Far East. It has operated the project since 1995 on behalf of a consortium that includes Japanese and Indian partners, as well as two affiliates of Russia's largest oil company, Rosneft.
- McDonald's - The burger chain has categorized Russia as a high-growth market and continued to open locations there throughout the last decade.
Banks freeze millions in convoy funds under Trudeau edict --Canadian banks froze about C$7.8 million ($6.1 million) in just over 200 accounts under emergency powers meant to end protests in Ottawa and at key border crossings, a government official said Tuesday.The new tally was revealed in testimony to lawmakers examining Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s decision to invoke the country’s Emergencies Act to end a three-week occupation of the nation’s capital.Trudeau and his ministers have said the measures announced last week are meant to cut off funding to protest leaders and to pressure trucking companies to prevent their semis from being used again in blockades. Ottawa’s downtown core was cleared out over the weekend, but dozens of trucks remain gathered at encampments outside the city.
India School Hijab Ban: Majority of Hindu Women Also Cover Their Heads by Riaz Haq - Is the ban on hijab in colleges in the southern Indian state of Karnataka motivated by Islamophobia? Is it part of the ruling BJP party's campaign against 200 million Indian Muslims? Results of a Pew Survey helps clarify the answer to these questions: Six in ten Indian women, including Hindu women, cover their heads. Head Covering By Religions in India. Source: PewThe survey found that a majority of Hindu women (59%), and roughly equal shares of Muslim (89%) and Sikh women (86%), wear head coverings when they go out of their homes. It was conducted in 2019-20, well before the current hijab row in Karnataka, and republished recently. Regional Differences in Head Coverings in India. Source: PewThe Indian practice of head covering is much more common in the North than in the South. It is especially common in the largely Hindi-speaking regions in the Northern, Central and Eastern parts of the country. In the states of Bihar, Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan, roughly nine-in-ten women say they wear head coverings in public. In the South, 83% of Muslim women say they cover their heads, compared with 22% of Hindu women. In the Northern region, meanwhile, roughly equal shares of Muslim (85%) and Hindu (82%) women say they cover their heads in public.Prime Minister Narendra Modi's Hindu Nationalist BJP party's entire politics revolves around hatred of Muslims and other religious minorities in India. The BJP currently rules Karnataka which has seen a rise in activities of Hindutva groups and the targeting of the state’s religious minorities, mainly Muslims and Christians. “We have been wearing hijab for years without any problem but now, the issue has been suddenly taken up by the BJP and Hindutva groups to rake up communal tensions,” Kaneez Fatima, a Congress member of the Karnataka Legislative Assembly, told Al Jazeera, referring to the Hindu far-right groups.
Brazil’s return to classrooms fills pediatric ICUs -- While the media and the Brazilian government have highlighted the decrease in occupancy rates for adult ICU beds, pediatric intensive care units are receiving an explosive number of new admissions. Children are being terribly impacted by the spread of the Omicron variant of COVID-19. In Santa Catarina, the occupancy rate of pediatric ICU beds for COVID-19 treatment increased 433 percent in the first 15 days of February; and between December and January, hospitalizations for children under the age of 15 rose nearly 12-fold. The state of Rio de Janeiro registered an 850 percent increase in the occupancy of pediatric ICU beds between December and January, with the number of children between 6 and 12 years old hospitalized jumping from 6 to 57. A CNN Brazil report revealed that on February 8, only 8 pediatric ICU beds were available for the entire state of Rio de Janeiro, all concentrated in only two hospitals in the capital. Similar situations are reported throughout the country. Reports from health care workers show that the new variant, promoted as “mild” by governments around the world, is driving child hospitalizations to unprecedented levels. At a pediatric hospital in Goiânia, the capital of the state of Goiás, the intensivist physician Fernanda Peixoto reported earlier this month that there has never been such a large number of children hospitalized. Children with COVID-19 can remain hospitalized for more than a month. In the state of Ceará, pediatric intensivist physician Manuela Monte, who works at a children’s hospital in the capital, Fortaleza, told the BBC, “We are a hospital of reference, and our pediatric COVID ICUs were full in January, while adult care was relatively under control.” She added, “Children of all age groups have been admitted with COVID. And we have had severe cases in children who had no health problems at all. Because of the immune system being compromised by COVID, they ended up getting a bacterial infection, pneumonia, or meningitis before they got to the hospital.” According to the epidemiological bulletin of the Health Secretariat of the capital of Rio de Janeiro, the number of hospitalizations of children in January was about five times higher than during the second wave caused by the Gamma and Delta variants last year. The surge in hospitalizations is occurring while millions of children remain unvaccinated, with states registering disparities in vaccination rates, delays and missed doses. In February 16, while Paraná, São Paulo and the Federal District have respectively, 28.1 percent, 28.6 percent and 34.6 percent of children between 5 and 11 years old vaccinated with the first dose, most of the states that provided data have less than 20 percent coverage. This is the case of Amapa, Mato Grosso do Sul and Pernambuco, which vaccinated 5.4 percent, 12.9 percent and 12.5 percent, respectively. On Thursday, the health secretary of the state of Rio de Janeiro announced the interruption of vaccinations for a week due to lack of pediatric doses.
Johnson government adopts “dying with COVID” strategy for the UK - Britain’s government has finalised its “living with COVID” strategy. Speaking to parliament yesterday, Prime Minister Boris Johnson made clear this should properly be called a plan for workers “dying with COVID”. He announced:
- From today, the end of guidance that school staff and students test twice weekly.
- From this Thursday, the end of the legal requirement to self-isolate after a positive test, routine contact tracing and self-isolation support payments.
- From March 24, the end of COVID sick pay provisions.
- From April 1, the end of free testing for the general public.
Every word uttered in defence of this murderous policy is based on a lie. Johnson told the BBC on Sunday, “We are now one step closer towards a return to normality and finally giving people back their freedoms while continuing to protect ourselves and others.” Prime Minister Boris Johnson (centre) speaking at Monday's Downing Street press conference with (right) Sir Chris Whitty and (left) Sir Patrick Vallance (screenshot from video/Boris Johnson/Twitter) The Conservative government’s strategy is based on the removal of all protections and will not lead to “normality”. Scientific Advisory Group on Emergencies (SAGE) member Professor Robert West told Times Radio that the government had decided to “abdicate its own responsibility for looking after its population,” adding, “It looks as though what the Government has said is that it accepts that the country is going to have to live with somewhere between 20,000 and 80,000 COVID deaths a year and isn’t really going to do anything about it.” Medium-term scenarios outlined on February 10 by SAGE in a universally ignored briefing raise even graver concerns. Professor Maggie Rae, President of the Faculty of Public Health, called the ending of free testing “incomprehensible”. There is no sound scientific or medical basis for the government’s policy. Johnson blurted out his real motivation in his BBC interview. “We need people to be much more confident and get back to work… We don’t need to keep spending at a rate of £2 billion a month [on testing].” The super-rich view any public health response to the pandemic as a state-subsidised interruption of the flow of profits, which must end. Their “new normal” does not mean doing away with the virus, but with the victims of the virus who will be forcibly exposed to COVID-19 in their workplaces.
The Queen has tested positive for Covid - what we know so far - Buckingham Palace has today announced that the Queen has tested positive for Covid-19.It has been confirmed that the 95-year-old monarch is experiencing "mild cold-like symptoms" and expects to carry out "light duties" this week.This follows after it was confirmed she had been in direct contact with her eldest son and heir, the Prince of Wales, the week he had tested positive for the disease.The announcement was made just a few weeks after the nation’s longest-reigning monarch reached her historic Platinum Jubilee of 70 years on the throne on February 6.Buckingham Palace said in a statement: “Buckingham Palace confirm that The Queen has today tested positive for Covid.“Her Majesty is experiencing mild cold-like symptoms but expects to continue light duties at Windsor over the coming week. “She will continue to receive medical attention and will follow all the appropriate guidelines." The Queen is understood to be triple vaccinated but she had been on doctors’ order to rest since mid October, after cancelling a run of engagements and spending a night in hospital undergoing preliminary tests.She is believed to have spent time with Charles on Tuesday February 8, when he hosted an investiture at her Windsor Castle home, and a few days later he tested positive for Covid but made a quick recovery to full health.
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