Since the Fed Announced It Was “Tapering” Last November, It’s Actually Added $332 Billion in Liquidity with New Debt Security Purchases - by Pam MartensIf you’re wondering why inflation is running hotter than it has in 40 years and why St. Louis Fed President James Bullard has broken with protocol and is openly criticizing the Fed on television for falling behind the curve on inflation, here’s a key part of that story. The Fed’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) made its first announcement that it would begin “tapering” the amount of its purchases of Treasurys and Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS)on November 3 of last year. On that date, according to the Fed’s own H.4.1 filing, it held $8.063 trillion in debt securities. As of last Wednesday, that figure had risen to $8.395 trillion or an increase (not decrease) of $332 billion in the span of just three months.The Fed’s practice of buying up debt securities from Wall Street firms in order to add cash (liquidity) to financial markets is called Quantitative Easing or QE, because it is a form of “easing,” not tightening, of credit conditions.Most Americans understood the Fed to mean last November that it had stopped easing and was now tightening credit market conditions to address inflationary pressures that were taking root in the economy. Instead, the $332 billion in additional debt purchases actually represented the equivalent of a quarter-point cut in interest rates.As Liz Ann Sonders, Chief Investment Strategist at Charles Schwab tweeted on February 11: “Important to remember that balance sheet shrink is also a form [of] tightening (approximate relationship is $300b of shrink = ~25bps hike)…”Conversely, if you increase (rather than shrink) your balance sheet by $332 billion in new debt purchases, you’ve effectively eased by 25 basis points (bps), the equivalent of a quarter-point interest rate cut. (25 basis points equal one-quarter point.) Is it any wonder that inflation, as measured by the Consumer Price Index, hit a 40-year high of 7.5 percent year over year in January?But buried in the fine print of the announcement were these two additional mandates for the New York Fed’s Open Market Desk:“Increase holdings of Treasury securities and agency MBS by additional amounts as needed to sustain smooth functioning of markets for these securi ties.”And this:“Roll over at auction all principal payments from the Federal Reserve’s holdings of Treasury securities and reinvest all principal payments from the Federal Reserve’s holdings of agency debt and agency MBS in agency MBS.”The Fed announced further cuts to the amounts it was buying in Treasury securities and MBS in January and February, but the bottom line is that it was still buying up debt instruments (a form of easing) as inflation raged.Removing the punchbowl is not popular on Wall Street and the New York Fed, which carries out the securities purchases for the Fed, does not like to displease Wall Street – since it is literally owned by the megabanks in New York.
FOMC Minutes: "Faster" is the Word --From the Fed: Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee, January 25-26, 2022. Excerpt on inflation: In light of elevated inflation pressures and the strong labor market, participants continued to judge that the Committee's net asset purchases should be concluded soon. Most participants preferred to continue to reduce the Committee's net asset purchases according to the schedule announced in December, bringing them to an end in early March. A couple of participants stated that they favored ending the Committee's net asset purchases sooner to send an even stronger signal that the Committee was committed to bringing down inflation. Participants discussed the implications of the economic outlook for the likely timing and pace for removing policy accommodation. Compared with conditions in 2015 when the Committee last began a process of removing monetary policy accommodation, participants viewed that there was a much stronger outlook for growth in economic activity, substantially higher inflation, and a notably tighter labor market. Consequently, most participants suggested that a faster pace of increases in the target range for the federal funds rate than in the post-2015 period would likely be warranted, should the economy evolve generally in line with the Committee's expectation. Even so, participants emphasized that the appropriate path of policy would depend on economic and financial developments and their implications for the outlook and the risks around the outlook, and they will be updating their assessments of the appropriate setting for the policy stance at each meeting. Participants noted that the removal of policy accommodation in current circumstances depended on the timing and pace of both increases in the target range of the federal funds rate and the reduction in the size of the Federal Reserve's balance sheet. In this context, a number of participants commented that conditions would likely warrant beginning to reduce the size of the balance sheet sometime later this year. …. Participants continued to stress that maintaining flexibility to implement appropriate policy adjustments on the basis of risk-management considerations should be a guiding principle in conducting policy in the current highly uncertain environment. Most participants noted that, if inflation does not move down as they expect, it would be appropriate for the Committee to remove policy accommodation at a faster pace than they currently anticipate. Some participants commented on the risk that financial conditions might tighten unduly in response to a rapid removal of policy accommodation. A few participants remarked that this risk could be mitigated through clear and effective communication of the Committee's assessments of the economic outlook, the risks around the outlook, and the appropriate path for monetary policy.
Growing fears over what interest rate hike will produce -As the date approaches for the US Federal Reserve to start lifting interest rates, expected to be at the meeting of its Federal Open Market Committee next month, there are continuing indications of nervousness about the effect of monetary policy tightening on financial markets. The Fed is treading a very fine line. On the one hand, it is being pushed to lift interest rates, possibly by as many as seven times this year, because of the inflation surge it had previously designated as “transitory.” Inflation is now running at more than 7 percent with predictions it will go even higher. The chief concern is that workers will undertake a concerted push for higher wages, with independent action, and break free of the drive by the trade unions, backed by the Biden administration, to shackle them. On the other hand, there are fears that a too rapid increase in interest rates, combined with a rundown of the Fed’s asset holdings, which have blown out to almost $9 trillion, will trigger major turbulence on Wall Street and even provoke a financial crisis. It is a sign of the fragility of the financial markets and their total dependence on the flow of ultra-cheap money from the Fed that what were once regarded as relatively small incremental rises in the base interest rate—0.25 percent, 0.5 percent or even 1 percent—are now viewed with some trepidation. As Joseph Amato, chief investment officer for equities at Neuberger Berman told the Wall Street Journal: “We haven’t seen a single rate hike yet and the market is whipping itself into a bit of a frenzy.” The state of the financial markets was the subject of the lead article in this week’s edition of the Economist magazine and headlined “What would happen if the financial markets crashed?” “Today America’s financial system looks nothing like it did before the crashes of 2001 and 2008, yet lately there have been some familiar signs of froth and fear on Wall Street; wild trading days on no real news,” the article began. It declared that it was “tempting” to think of the sell-off in January as exactly what was needed to purge the stock market of speculative excesses but “America’s new-look financial system is still loaded with risks.” The last time asset prices were so high relative to earning “was before the slumps of 2001 and 1929.” “The mix of sky-high valuations and rising interest rates could easily result in large losses, as the rate used to discount future income rises,” it said. This refers to the calculation that the present value of a share or financial asset is determined by the expected flow of income, discounted at the rate of interest. The higher the interest rate, the lower the present value. “If big losses do materialise, the important question, for investors, central bankers and for the world economy is whether the financial system will safely absorb them.”
Bullard: Fed "credibility is on the line" in inflation fight (Reuters) - St. Louis Federal Reserve president James Bullard on Monday reiterated calls for a faster pace of Fed interest rate hikes, saying that four strong inflation reports in a row warranted action and that the central bank needed to "ratify" market expectations of its upcoming moves. Bullard, who himself helped shape those expectations with calls last week for a 50 basis point increase at the Fed's March meeting, said on CNBC that the Fed's "credibility is on the line" in its quest to bring inflation down from the current 40-year high of more than 7%. "It was really October, November, December, January that called into question any idea that this inflation was naturally going to moderate in any reasonable time frame without the Fed taking action," said Bullard. He feels the Fed's response should involve a full percentage point of rate increases over the Fed's three meetings between now and July 1, slightly faster than he had suggested before. That implies at least one hike of a half percentage point at one of those meetings instead of the quarter point increases that the Fed has used in recent years. His comments, coupled with a stronger than expected January inflation report, pushed up yields on the 2-year Treasury, often considered a proxy for the direction of Fed policy. It also helped prompt traders in contracts tied to the Fed's target interest rate that a half-point increase in March was coming. Other Fed bank presidents have pushed back - modestly - on that idea, cautioning that no decisions had been made. None of the Fed's governors, and most notably Fed chair Jerome Powell, have spoken publicly to the matter since the central bank's last meeting in January. Bullard said he would defer to Powell on the sequencing of coming rate increases. But he also said the Fed at this point needed to "follow through" with what markets anticipate, and in effect lock in the tighter financial conditions seen in rising interest rates for 2 year Treasury bonds. Powell is "very good at managing the committee," Bullard said. But "the Fed has to follow through and ratify those expectations that have been built into the 2 year, and if we don't then it makes it appear that we are not defending" the 2% inflation target.
Dollar strengthens on Bullard rate comments, Ukraine concerns (Reuters) - The U.S. dollar index reached a two-week high on Monday, with investors anxious over tensions in Ukraine and as St. Louis Federal Reserve president James Bullard reiterated calls for a faster pace of U.S. Federal Reserve interest rate hikes. Bullard on Monday also said that four strong inflation reports in a row warranted action. Last week's stronger-than-expected U.S. consumer price index report has driven speculation the Fed might raise rates by a full 50 basis points in March. "Clearly we still have the after shocks of last week's inflation report and St. Louis Fed president Bullard's comments," "We have traders positioning for a front-loaded tightening cycle." But investors are glued to developments in Ukraine, and those tensions are causing investors to avoid riskier assets, he said. Russia suggested on Monday that it was ready to keep talking to the West to try to defuse a security crisis in which it has massed a huge force within striking distance of Ukraine. Washington has said Russia could invade Ukraine "any day now," and British Prime Minister Boris Johnson on Monday called the situation "very, very dangerous."
Fed adopts sweeping trading curbs after ethics scandal -The Federal Reserve formally adopted tough, sweeping restrictions on officials’ investing and trading, aiming to prevent a repeat of the ethics scandal that engulfed the U.S. central bank last year.The changes codify new guidelines announced in October to restrict active trading, prohibit the purchase of individual securities and boost disclosure requirements among policymakers and senior staff members. The measures follow revelations of unusual trading activity by three top officials in 2020 — as the Fed intervened aggressively to shield the economy from COVID-19 — who subsequently resigned. The new rules “aim to support public confidence in the impartiality and integrity of the Committee’s work by guarding against even the appearance of any conflict of interest,” the Fed said in a statement Friday.
Steering the Fed ON JANUARY 11, THE SENATE Banking Committee began hearings to reappoint Jerome Powell as Chair of the Federal Reserve. Centrist commentators praised President Biden for sticking with Powell, since it showed a commitment to bipartisanship, skill at not spooking financial markets, and savvy in avoiding an ugly confirmation fight. The Financial Times praised Powell for being strong-willed but undogmatic. Not all was calm in pundit world, though, especially among the wing of Clintonite economists. J. Bradford DeLong warned that re-appointing Powell would be a “historic mistake,” while Joseph Stiglitz called Powell a “Wall Street-minded lawyer” with “a history of misjudgments in tightening monetary policy.” The stakes for the next Fed term are high. One way or another, the Fed is almost certainly going to scale back the gargantuan lending programs it used to prop up the economy when the Covid-19 pandemic hit in the spring of 2020. Whether that is soon, as a result of the much-debated current burst of inflation, or later, to restore some policy space to respond to future crises, it is very likely that the next years will see monetary policy tightening. Corporations and developing countries both have used the spigot of cheap capital to borrow heavily, raising the possibility that rapid rises in interest rates will precipitate either a private sector financial crisis or a developing country debt crisis akin to that of the 1980s. As Powell said in his confirmation hearing, it is a long road back to normal. Depending on how that road is taken, and what the results are, the consequent levels of inflation and unemployment will certainly have direct consequences for the 2024 presidential election. Anyone already worried about that election might also worry that Powell’s confirmation is a “historic mistake” and ask: Why don’t I get to vote on this? Well, what were the choices? The favored alternative to Powell was Lael Brainard, currently serving on the Fed’s Board of Governors. The contrast between her CV and Powell’s is instructive of the different factions of the American ruling class. Powell went from Princeton to Georgetown Law to corporate law practice to investment banking, including at the Carlyle Group, which used to turn up a lot in documentaries about the second Bush administration. Brainard, by contrast, charts a trajectory from an Economics PhD at Harvard to McKinsey consultancy to teaching at MIT to service in both Clinton and Obama administrations. In this way does the standard political spectrum of central bankers run all the way from A to B. The Fed responded to the unprecedented economic disruptions of the Covid-19 pandemic with equally unprecedented measures. Even after the dust settled and the initial financial crisis was averted, the Fed kept on with its quantitative easing program—increasing the money supply by purchasing about $80 billion of Treasury securities and $40 billion of mortgage-backed securities every month—until it announced in November 2021 it would begin to taper that off. Since March of 2020, the total assets held by the Fed have increased by about $4.6 trillion—which, mind you, is after some $4.4 trillion in three rounds of quantitative easing that followed the 2008 crisis. The velocity and scale of the Fed’s response to the pandemic is a sign that something tectonic has shifted: the rules of austerity that governed after 2008 are broken; the “unconventional monetary policy” of the Ben Bernanke era became conventional and has now been superseded by something even more experimental. There was no reason to expect the unprecedented intervention from this very conventional Fed chair: Jerome Powell may be a Wall Street-minded corporate lawyer, but not every Wall Street-minded corporate lawyer would have managed the pandemic crisis as well as Powell did. Rightly, the breakdown of the old orthodoxy has opened up a new horizon of questions, demands, and possibilities. If a conventional Fed chair can do such unconventional things, why stop there? Anyone who has experienced unemployment, medical debt, student loan debt, stagnant wages, budget cuts, or who has merely witnessed the gruesome spectacle of the Senate gouging out social spending for children, might well look at the Fed and its $8,873,211,000,000 balance sheet and ask: Why don’t I get to vote on this? Why aren’t children in poverty at least as much of an emergency as repo liquidity? Why don’t they get a bailout?
Sen. Tester says Sarah Bloom Raskin will get his vote for Fed — Sen. Jon Tester, D-Mont., said he would vote to confirm Sarah Bloom Raskin to be the Federal Reserve’s next vice chair for supervision. Speaking to Yahoo Finance on Monday, Tester — considered a centrist voice on the Senate Banking Committee — said that he would vote to advance Raskin’s nomination out of the committee on Tuesday. He also said he expected “that she will be confirmed by the full Senate.”His comments are considered an important bellwether for her nomination's prospects.
Republican senator targets Biden's Fed nominee Raskin (Reuters) - The U.S. Senate Banking committee's top Republican on Friday took renewed aim at President Joe Biden's nominee to a senior Federal Reserve post, Sarah Bloom Raskin, suggesting she had improperly lobbied the head of the Kansas City Fed on behalf of a fintech firm on whose board she then served. In an interview on Friday with Reuters, Dennis Gingold, the founder of the fintech firm, said that Senator Pat Toomey's account was "unfair" and that Raskin, nominated to be Fed vice chair of supervision, had acted ethically and correctly. A White House spokesman said Toomey was waging a "baseless smear campaign." The Senate Banking panel, whose members are divided equally between Republicans and Democrats, is to vote on Tuesday on whether to advance Biden's five Fed nominees for consideration by the full Senate. Members from both parties have indicated support for most of them, including for the renomination of Fed Chair Jerome Powell. Raskin, however, drew repeated Republican criticism mostly centered on her views on the financial stability risks posed by climate change. Toomey's public release of his letters about her to Kansas City Fed President Esther George and Powell broadened the attack. Raskin, a former Fed governor, personally rang George in August 2017 about Reserve Trust's master account application after it had been denied, Toomey wrote in the letters. "In the wake of Ms. Raskin’s call, the Kansas City Fed changed its mind and granted Reserve Trust a master account in 2018," Toomey said. Gingold said he recollected Raskin's short conversation with George as simply asking her to check that the bank's staff had the proper information at hand to make its determination.
Republicans discuss Fed confirmation blockade over Sarah Bloom Raskin -The top Senate Banking Committee Republican has discussed trying to stall Sarah Bloom Raskin’s nomination as vice chair for supervision of the Federal Reserve by having GOP members sit out a vote Tuesday on sending it to the floor, according to three people familiar with the discussions. Sen. Pat Toomey and other Republicans have questioned Raskin’s previous role as a director of Reserve Trust, a fintech company that obtained a Federal Reserve master account while Raskin was serving on its board. The Pennsylvania Republican also has criticized Raskin overher views on mitigating the financial risks of climate change. Toomey, R-Pa., and other Republicans have questioned Sarah Bloom Raskin’s previous role as a board member of a fintech company that obtained a Federal Reserve master account and her views on mitigating the financial risks of climate change.GOP lawmakers are considering Toomey’s idea to boycott Tuesday’s committee votes on Raskin and President Joe Biden’s four other nominees, which would deny Democrats a quorum to move forward, according to the people, who asked not to be identified to talk about the private deliberations.
GOP senators block Biden's Fed picks -Republican senators blocked votes on President Biden’s five Federal Reserve nominees Tuesday, leaving the future of the central bank in question amid surging inflation. Each of the 12 Republican members of the Senate Banking Committee boycotted a Tuesday meeting where the panel was set to vote on Biden’s five Fed nominees, along with his pick to lead the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA). Their refusal to attend the meeting meant the panel did not have a quorum, a sufficient number of senators present to hold a vote on nominees under Senate rules. Sen. Pat Toomey (Pa.), the top Republican on the Banking panel, said Tuesday morning he and his GOP colleagues would block the vote on all five of Biden’s Fed nominees because Democrats refused to take Raskin off Tuesday’s slate. In a Tuesday statement announcing the boycott, Toomey claimed Raskin had provided insufficient and misleading answers about her history on the board of a payments company that obtained access to the Fed’s payment processing system. But Brown said during the Tuesday meeting that Raskin fully answered more than 180 follow-up questions from Republican senators after her confirmation hearing earlier this month. Sylvan has more here.
Votes on Fed nominees delayed over GOP objections to Raskin -Senate Banking Committee Republicans skipped out on a vote Tuesday for President Biden’s nominees to the Federal Reserve Board, delaying confirmations tied to five of seven seats on the central bank’s governing body at a precarious time for the economy. The nomination of Sarah Bloom Raskin for vice chair for supervision is the primary bone of contention. Republicans have criticized her as too much of an activist on climate-change policy, and they have also raised questions about whether she interceded with regulators on behalf of a fintech company on whose board she served at the time. The 12 Republicans on the banking committee did not appear at its scheduled afternoon vote for Raskin and four other nominees: Jerome Powell for chairman, Lael Brainard for vice chair as well as Lisa Cook and Philip Jefferson to be governors.
Senate Banking Republicans double down on boycott of Fed nominees --Republican members of the Senate Banking Committee defended their boycott of a vote on five Federal Reserve Board nominations, saying that nominee Sarah Bloom Raskin's testimony about her work on behalf of the fintech company Reserve Trust was deceptive and inadequate. During a hearing Thursday on the state of the economy, committee Chairman Sherrod Brown, D-Ohio, criticized his Republican colleagues’ move two days earlier to deny a quorum for a committee vote on the five Fed picks and nomination of Sandra Thompson for director of the Federal Housing Finance Agency. Giving the Fed a full complement of directors would better equip the board to tackle inflation, which Republicans on the committee have expressed as a top concern, Brown argued. Sen. Patrick Toomey, R-Pa., defended his move to deny the Senate Banking Committee a quorum for its slate of Federal Reserve nominees because of what he views as inadequate transparency from nominee Sarah Bloom Raskin over her business dealings. “At this pivotal moment in our economic recovery, everyone understands we need a full Federal Reserve Board,” Brown said. “It would be the first time in nearly a decade where all seven confirmed members sat at the Fed to help tackle inflation. Republicans have no solutions, only political stunts.”
Fed nominations could be delayed until spring --Republicans’ procedural blockade of President Biden’s Federal Reserve nominees has left Senate Democrats with few options and could delay for months the revamp of the central bank’s board, according to analysts and political strategists. The 12 GOP members of the Senate Banking Committee decided not to show Tuesday for a scheduled vote by the panel, preventing a quorum. They primarily object to the nomination of Sarah Bloom Raskin for Fed vice chair for supervision, having raised concerns about her views on tackling climate-change risk in the financial system and about her involvement in a fintech company after an earlier stint in government. The move also left in limbo the renomination of Jerome Powell for Fed chair and the naming of Lael Brainard to be vice chair as well as Lisa Cook and Philip Jefferson to be governors. (Powell will continue to serve as chair and Brainard as a governor in the meantime.)
Follow the Money Behind Senator Pat Toomey and His Boycott of the Vote on Fed Nominees By Pam Martens -Yesterday, Senator Pat Toomey (R-PA), the Ranking Member of the Senate Banking Committee, orchestrated a boycott among his Republican colleagues on the Committee. Republicans refused to attend the scheduled vote at 2:15 p.m. yesterday for President Biden’s nominees to serve on the Federal Reserve. Without the presence of Republicans, the Committee lacked a quorum and could not vote.The nominees scheduled for a vote included Jerome Powell, for his second term as Fed Chair; Lael Brainard for Vice Chair; Sarah Bloom Raskin for Vice Chair for Supervision; Lisa Cook for Fed Governor; and Philip Jefferson for Fed Governor. Sandra Thompson, nominated to be Director of the Federal Housing Finance Agency, was also scheduled for a vote.Toomey’s main issue is with Sarah Bloom Raskin, who would be the Fed’s point person on supervision of the megabanks on Wall Street. The fear is that Raskin might actually assume that role instead of allowing it to be outsourced by the Fed to the crony New York Fed – which is literally owned by the Wall Street megabanks.Wall Street doesn’t want Raskin in that role and neither does the fossil fuels industry because Raskin has written on the need to address the financial impact of climate change.Toomey has been heavily financed throughout his career by both Wall Street and front groups for the fossil fuels industry.According to the campaign financing tracking site, OpenSecrets.org, over the course of Toomey’s political career, his largest donor to either his Campaign Committee and/or Leadership PAC has been the Club for Growth, which has provided more than $1.26 million to Toomey’s coffers. That’s more than 7 times the amount of Toomey’s second and third largest donors, the hedge fund Elliott Management and Goldman Sachs, respectively. Toomey served as the President of Club for Growth from 2005 to 2009.The Club for Growth is a dark money group that has pushed for things that the majority of Americans are against but big corporations have on their wish list: the privatization of Social Security; the destruction of workers’ rights and unions; and the deregulation of dangerous industries.Another front group that has supported Toomey is the Freedom Partners Action Fund. It pumped at least $4.3 million into running attack ads against Toomey’s Democratic challenger, Katie McGinty, in the 2016 U.S. Senate race in Pennsylvania.Charles Koch, the billionaire Chairman and CEO of the fossils fuels conglomerate, Koch Industries, and his trust gave $14 million to the Freedom Partners Action Fund Super Pac from 2014 through July 2018 according to OpenSecrets.org. Time Magazine’s Philip Elliott reported in January 2017 that “In seven of the eight up-for-grabs U.S. Senate races last year, the Koch-backed candidate won. In all, Koch-backed candidates at all levels of races prevailed 96% of the time—a record any outside group would covet.” (For more on how Freedom Partners’ money molded the Trump administration, see our report here.)It is likely that Toomey would have had little trouble getting his Republican colleagues on the Senate Banking Committee to follow his lead with the boycott. A significant number of Republican Senators on this Committee have ties to Koch money, Wall Street money and/or the Club for Growth. Calling Toomey’s credibility further into question on his hostility toward Raskin is the fact that the full Senate has previously unanimously confirmed her twice before: once as a nominee for Fed Governor and once as a nominee for Deputy Secretary of the U.S. Treasury.Senator Sherrod Brown (D-OH), the Chair of the Senate Banking Committee, said that the Republican boycott that prevented a vote on qualified nominees yesterday meant that “Republicans have walked out on the American people.”
Six High Frequency Indicators for the Economy -- These indicators are mostly for travel and entertainment. The TSA is providing daily travel numbers. This data is as of February 13th. This data shows the 7-day average of daily total traveler throughput from the TSA for 2019 (Light Blue), 2020 (Black), 2021 (Blue) and 2021 (Red). The dashed line is the percent of 2019 for the seven-day average. The 7-day average is down 18.1% from the same day in 2019 (81.9% of 2019). (Dashed line) Air travel had been off about 20% relative to 2019 for most of the second half of 2021 (with some ups and downs) - but picked up over the Thanksgiving and Christmas holidays (solid leisure travel) - and has declined in early 2022 (omicron / weak business travel). The second graph shows the 7-day average of the year-over-year change in diners as tabulated by OpenTable for the US and several selected cities. This data is updated through February 12, 2022. This data is "a sample of restaurants on the OpenTable network across all channels: online reservations, phone reservations, and walk-ins. Dining was mostly moving sideways but declined during the winter wave of COVID and is now increasing. The 7-day average for the US is down 17% compared to 2019. This data shows domestic box office for each week and the median for the years 2016 through 2019 (dashed light blue). The data is from BoxOfficeMojo through February 10th. Movie ticket sales were at $77 million last week, down about 41% from the median for the week. This graph shows the seasonal pattern for the hotel occupancy rate using the four-week average. This data is through February 5th. The occupancy rate was down 15.8% compared to the same week in 2019. The 4-week average of the occupancy rate is below the median rate for the previous 20 years (Blue). The 4-week average of the occupancy rate will increase seasonally over the next few months. The key question is: How much business travel will return? This graph is from Apple mobility.. From Apple: "This data is generated by counting the number of requests made to Apple Maps for directions in select countries/regions, sub-regions, and cities." This data is through February 10th for the United States and several selected cities. According to the Apple data directions requests, public transit in the 7-day average for the US is at 105% of the January 2020 level. Here is some interesting data on New York subway usage.. This graph shows how much MTA traffic has recovered in each borough (Graph starts at first week in January 2020 and 100 = 2019 average). Manhattan is at about 35% of normal. This data is through Friday, February 11th.
Business Cycle indicators, mid-February by Menzie Chinn - 2d ago -Retail sales, industrial (but not manufacturing) production far above consensus. Figure 1: Nonfarm payroll employment (dark blue), industrial production (red), personal income excluding transfers in Ch.2012$ (green), manufacturing and trade sales in Ch.2012$ (black), consumption in Ch.2012$ (light blue), and monthly GDP in Ch.2012$ (pink), all log normalized to 2020M02=0. NBER defined recession dates, peak-to-trough, shaded gray. Source: BLS, Federal Reserve, BEA, via FRED, IHS Markit (nee Macroeconomic Advisers) (2/1/2022 release), NBER, and author’s calculations. Retail sales is not in the graph above. However, to the extent there’s a rebound in retail sales, this is suggestive of maintained levels of manufacturing and trade sales (black line in Figure 1). Figure 2: Retail sales ex-food services, mn 1982$ (blue, left log scale), and manufacturing and trade industry sales, in billions Ch.2012$, SAAR (red, right log scale). Retail sales deflated using PPI-finished goods. NBER defined recession peak-to-trough dates shaded gray. Source: Census via FRED, FRED, BLS, NBER, and author’s calculations.A regression over the sample shown above yields (in first log differences) an adjusted-R2 of 0.81, a slope coefficient of 0.72. Implied food services sales — the gap between FRED series RSAFS and RSXFS — declined in January, perhaps reflecting omicron’s impact.Figure 3: Food service sales, in millions $, s.a. (black), and in millions 2020$, s.a. (teal). Real series deflated using CPI. Source: Census, BLS via FRED and author’s calculations. Adjusted for (CPI) inflation, the decline has been occurring for several months.
Commodities Price Increases and Prospect of Shortages Feeding Inflation Fears by Yves Smith --To add to the Biden Administration’s litany of woes: The inflation situation has developed not necessarily to the Biden Administration’s advantage. As we’ll discuss in more detail, an uncomfortably large number of commodities are seeing hefty price increases. For instance:
Nat gas +81%
Oil +66%
Agricultural commodities +24%
Cattle prices +20%
Lumber +15%
Coffee +92%
A new story in the Financial Times focuses on shrunken inventories in key sectors: Stockpiles of some of the global economy’s most important commodities are at historically low levels, as booming demand and supply shortages threaten to fuel inflationary pressures around the world. From industrial metals to energy to agriculture, the rush for raw materials and food staples has been reflected in futures markets, where a large number of commodities have flipped into backwardation — a pricing structure that signals scarcity. Problems are particularly acute in metals, where spot prices of several contracts on the London Metal Exchange are trading higher than those for later delivery, as traders pay large premiums to secure immediate supply…. Copper stocks at major commodity exchanges sit at just over 400,000 tonnes, representing less than a week of global consumption. Aluminium stocks are also low, as smelters in Europe and China have been forced to cut capacity because of the huge financial strain caused by spiralling energy costs.Production cuts are just one factor behind the supply shortages, which have led the Bloomberg Commodity Spot index, a key gauge of raw materials, to rise more than a tenth since the start of the year and hit a record high this month….Other drivers of the shortages include a lack of investment in new mines and oilfields, bad weather and supply chain constraints caused by the spread of Covid-19.In other words, some of these results are due to significantly to the direct and indirect effects of Covid: demand whipsawing and supply chain issues due to Covid hitting staffing and cutting throughput. The Covid “recovery” wrong footed many producers. For instance, even though oil production can be dialed up and down, it does not turn on a dime. Automakers were hit by the famed chip shortage, due to slashing orders and then finding that chipmakers had successfully redeployed a lot of capacity to consumer electronics. Automakers, and therefore buyers, are now having to eat the cost of commodity price increases too. However, an overarching problem is that, as we saw in the 1970s, an extended period of high energy prices in not too long a period of time propagates through the economy. The oil price jump isn’t anything like what we saw then, and is also nothing like the short but attention-grabbing oil price runup of 2008, where prices briefly peaked at $147 a barrel. We correctly called that that spike (and the increases in other traded commodities) didn’t result from fundamental factors ex China stockpiling diesel for the Olympics, and that was set to fall sharply. A current example of energy prices driving other price hikes:
Negotiators make progress in fiscal 2022 spending talks - Congressional negotiators are making headway in government spending talks, with top lawmakers confirming on Tuesday that all of the Senate Appropriations subcommittees have received their top-line spending numbers for fiscal 2022. Sen. Patrick Leahy (D-Vt.), chairman of the Senate Appropriations Committee, confirmed to The Hill on Tuesday that all 12 of the chamber’s appropriations subcommittees have received allocation figures for their portions of the fiscal 2022 budget. Sen. Richard Shelby (Ala.), top-ranking Republican on the panel, also confirmed the development on Tuesday afternoon. The news comes days after Shelby said negotiators struck an agreement on the framework for an omnibus spending package, which he added would be key to helping leaders secure top-line numbers for defense and nondefense discretionary spending. The announcement,, which Shelby described as a “breakthrough” at the time, follows a months-long stalemate between both sides of the aisle over a range of disagreements, including parity between defense and nondefense spending, as well as legislative riders. In remarks to reporters on Monday night, Sen. Jon Tester, who chairs the Senate Appropriations Defense Subcommittee, wouldn’t say what his panel was allocated, but said “it's better than [he] expected.” Sen. Chris Murphy (D-Conn.), who chairs the Senate Appropriations Homeland Security Subcommittee, said appropriators worked through the weekend to hash out allocations. The progress arrives as negotiators are running up on a Feb. 18 deadline to pass legislation to avert a government shutdown. The House has already passed a stopgap measure to allow the government to remain funded under the previous fiscal year’s spending levels through March 11, in hopes to buy appropriators more time to tie up negotiations. The Senate is expected to take up the legislation later this week.
Blackburn drops hold on funding bill after HHS disputes crack pipe claims --Sen. Marsha Blackburn (R-Tenn.) on Tuesday dropped her vow to slow-walk a short-term government funding bill after she got reassurances from the Biden administration that federal funds wouldn't go toward the purchase of crack pipes as part of a harm reduction program. "Senator Blackburn lifted her hold after she received an answer in writing from the HHS Secretary committing that no taxpayer funding will be used to fund crack pipes," a spokesperson for the GOP senator said. Blackburn announced last week that she was placing a hold on the continuing resolution that would fund the government until March 11 amid reports in conservative media that funding from a harm reduction grant program run by the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) could be used to provide safe smoke kits, which the initial reports said could include crack pipes. The Biden administration has dismissed the report as incorrect, saying it was never on the table. HHS Secretary Xavier Becerra also said the grants would not be used for pipes, but Blackburn indicated earlier Tuesday that she was still waiting for a response from HHS and that she had not dropped her hold. The Senate has until the end of Friday to pass the short-term government funding bill and avoid a government shutdown. The House previously passed the bill last week to give appropriators more time to work out a deal on fiscal 2022 funding.
Senate passes bill to avert government shutdown - The Senate on Thursday passed a bill to avert a government shutdown ahead of a Friday night deadline, sending the legislation to President Biden's desk for a signature. Senators voted 65-27 on the bill, which funds the government through March 11 at current levels. The bill now goes to Biden, who is expected to sign it, after passing the House last week. "We have kept the government open. It took some work, especially when the Senate rules lend themselves to delay and obstruction. Still, I thank Senators Leahy and Shelby, as well as Leader McConnell, for helping us get this done," Senate Majority Leader Charles Schumer (D-N.Y.) said, referring to Appropriations Committee Chairman Patrick Leahy (D-Vt.), Sen. Richard Shelby (R-Ala.) and Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (Ky.). "To have allowed the government to close would have caused undue hardship for millions of blameless Americans," Schumer added. The bill, known as a continuing resolution (CR), buys lawmakers roughly three more weeks to try to work out a mammoth deal that would fund the government through the end of September. The Senate’s passage of the funding bill comes after a days-long drama as senators tried to get a deal that would clear a path for the legislation. Because of the Senate’s rules, and the looming deadline, they needed buy-in from all 100 members to speed up the bill to meet the deadline. Senators spent days haggling over what amendments would get votes. In the end they agreed on three: Two related to Biden’s vaccine mandates and a third from Sen. Mike Braun (R-Ind.) on balancing the budget. Another amendment from Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) that would block federal funding for schools and child care centers that require coronavirus vaccination failed, along with one from Sen. Mike Lee (R-Utah) and other GOP senators to defund vaccine requirements for medical workers, military personnel, federal employees and contractors for the length of the CR. Despite ultimately agreeing on what amendments would be included, the Senate was stuck in limbo for hours on Thursday because of a basic problem: Math. The chamber started the day with two GOP senators absent, Sens. Richard Burr (N.C.) and Lindsey Graham (S.C.), along with three Democratic senators: Sens. Ben Ray Luján (Calif.), Dianne Feinstein (Calif.) and Mark Kelly (Ariz.). That meant if the Senate had voted on the amendments on Thursday, or even Wednesday when Graham was the only GOP senator missing, the vaccine proposals would have had enough support to get added into the government funding bill. Any changes to the continuing resolution would force it to go back to the House, which is in the middle of a two-week recess and where Democrats would likely balk over quickly passing a bill that defunds Biden’s vaccine rules. Cruz and Lee sought to take advantage of the Democratic absences, urging their colleagues to stay in town in order to win the votes on the vaccine amendments. Cruz said that "NO REPUBLICAN SENATOR should leave town this afternoon."
Inflation news throws more cold water on 'Build Back Better' - West Virginia Democratic Sen. Joe Manchin warned yesterday that Congress should constrain spending amid rising inflation, likely further derailing President Biden’s marquee climate and social spending bill.The consumer price index rose 7.5 percent over the last year, the fastest pace in since 1982, the Bureau of Labor Statistics said yesterday. The index rose 0.6 percent in January.The eye-popping January numbers reverberated around Capitol Hill, as Manchin — the Senate’s crucial swing vote — said lawmakers should prioritize getting prices under control.“Congress and the Administration must proceed with caution before adding more fuel to an economy already on fire,” Manchin said in a statement after the numbers were released. “As inflation and our $30 trillion in national debt continue a historic climb, only in Washington, DC do people seem to think that spending trillions more of taxpayers’ money will cure our problems, let alone inflation.”It’s a concern Manchin, the Senate Energy and Natural Resources chair, has discussed publicly for months, and it was one of the reasons he announced his objection to the House-passed $1.7 trillion “Build Back Better Act” in December(E&E Daily, Dec. 21, 2021). He has since declared the bill “dead.”There are ongoing discussions among Democrats about how to revive it in some form, but the January inflation numbers put a finer point on how difficult it could be to cobble together a politically palatable reconciliation package.Asked about the bill yesterday, Manchin said Democrats should prioritize raising taxes on corporations — an idea that fellow moderate Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (D-Ariz.) has opposed. He also suggested the legislation would be better served going through hearings and markups in the Senate, a process that would take months.“There’s a lot of good, good, well-intentioned ideas in there that we needed to tackle sooner or later,” Manchin said in an interview with Hoppy Kercheval of West Virginia MetroNews. “But the bottom line is right now we’re not in a financial position to do it.”While he is not currently negotiating with the White House, Manchin has left open the door to a reconciliation package with a different structure and smaller price tag — or an independent climate bill. He said last month that the $555 billion in climate spending and clean energy tax credit expansions “is one that we probably can come to agreement much easier than anything else.”
Manchin: White House acknowledges inflation is major concern ---Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.), emerging from a meeting with White House chief of staff Ron Klain, said Thursday that the president’s top advisers now acknowledge inflation is a major concern that needs to be addressed. “The White House has made that very clear. They made it very clear that inflation and costs is a burden on a lot of people,” he told reporters. A second Democratic senator who requested anonymity to discuss the details of the private meeting said inflation was “a major topic.” For much of the last year, the president and senior White House officials have argued that rising inflation numbers would be temporary, echoing the prediction of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. The president began to change his tone on rising prices in November. Manchin and other Democrats said there was also no discussion at Thursday's meeting about reviving President Biden’s Build Back Better package, with Klain and Democratic lawmakers instead discussing Biden’s plan to address rising costs. Manchin said the White House hasn’t yet directly reached out to him to resume negotiations over Biden’s stalled climate and social spending agenda. Asked if the White House re-engaged with him directly on the stalled package that Democrats had hoped to pass last year under special budget reconciliation rules, Manchin said: “No formal talks at all.” Instead, Klain focused on what he described would be Biden’s positive message at the State of the Union address scheduled for March 1. “What we talked about was just some of the top lines that will probably be coming out for State of the Union, some of the important things that we’re working. All the jobs and economy that is going to be improved because of the infrastructure bill,” said Sen. Jacky Rosen (D-Nev.), summarizing the meeting. Rosen said “there was no talk” of reviving Biden’s Build Back Better agenda. Biden’s sweeping climate and social spending package foundered at the end of last year after Manchin said he couldn’t support it, in large part because of his concerns about inflation and the mounting federal debt. Two months later, senators say the White House is now acknowledging that rising costs are a major problem.
Manchin wants 'good things on climate.' What does that mean? - It's another day in Washington, which means it's another day when lawmakers and journalists are deciphering comments from Sen. Joe Manchin III (D-W.Va.) about President Biden's stalled Build Back Better bill. On two separate occasions on Thursday, Manchin signaled openness to the climate provisions in the BBB package, although he reiterated his concerns about adding to the national debt.Here's a rundown of what the West Virginia senator said yesterday — and what it might mean for efforts to enact the biggest climate investment in the nation's history.In an appearance on a West Virginia radio talk show, Manchin emphasized he thinks the provisions in BBB should go through typical committee consideration known as regular order, which allows for Republican input. "They should go through a committee process. These are major changes in our society," Manchin toldHoppy Kercheval, the host of "Talkline." These comments bode well for the clean energy tax credits in BBB, which have already gone through regular order, rather than reconciliation, the budget process that Democrats are using for the legislation.The Senate Finance Committee last year advanced the Clean Energy for America Act, which would extend technology-neutral tax incentives for clean electricity and clean vehicles, with a 14-to-14 vote. The legislation was later included in the Senate version of the Build Back Better bill, and Senate Finance Chairman Ron Wyden (D-Ore.) has repeatedly described it as the "linchpin" of the package's climate provisions. Manchin also noted on the radio show that he wants to protect younger generations, including his own heirs.“I got grandchildren. Ten grandchildren," he said. "I got future generations depending on us doing the right thing. I'm willing to do a lot of good things on climate, too. We can all get together.” It may seem like Manchin was saying he wants to protect future generations from the effects of climate change. But in reality, he was saying that it's irresponsible to burden future generations with a soaring national debt, Manchin spokeswoman Sam Runyon told The Climate 202. (One climate activist has dismissed this argument as “deeply offensive.”)Earlier on Thursday, at a Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee hearing on hydrogen, Manchin acknowledged that West Virginia will need to move away from coal, the dirtiest fossil fuel."The reason I'm so excited [about hydrogen] is my state basically is about 90-93 percent dependent on coal-fired power," he said. "We know the transition is happening and it has to happen. We understand that."These comments were a stark acknowledgment that regardless of BBB, coal is waning in America because of market forces incentivizing natural gas, renewables and hydrogen. (It's also worth noting that Manchin has expressed a preference for blue hydrogen, which is made using natural gas, rather than green hydrogen, which is made using renewable energy.) Ultimately, Democrats are facing the distinct possibility that they may have to scrap the entire BBB package as written, given Manchin's concerns and many other issues on the agenda, Politico'sBurgess Everett reports. Democrats' only real deadline for passing BBB is Sept. 30, when the fiscal 2022 budget resolution underpinning the bill expires. But climate activists are not ready to give up. They're still calling on Congress to pass any of the provisions in BBB that can get 50 votes in the Senate — even if it means losing some of the climate provisions targeted by Manchin, such as a fee on methane emissions and a tax break for union-made electric vehicles. "I want the biggest, boldest package possible, but we need to make some tough choices and prioritize and see what can get 50 votes," Jamal Raad, executive director of the climate advocacy groupEvergreen Action, told The Climate 202 yesterday. "So if that package looks a little smaller or includes some deficit reduction, so be it," he said. "We need to get something done."
Dems say 'Build Back Better' on White House back burner - E&E News --The $1.7 trillion climate and social spending package once the centerpiece of the Democrats’ domestic agenda barely registered as a blip on the radar during a meeting yesterday with Senate Democrats and White House chief of staff Ron Klain, according to lawmakers in attendance. That the legislation is now taking a back seat to other issues President Biden is poised to discuss in his March 1 State of the Union address is another warning sign that party leaders have no plans to revive the “Build Back Better Act,” with its $550 billion investment in programs to help the environment, anytime soon. When asked whether a path forward on the measure was addressed during the meeting, Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) said simply, “Not that I recall.” The moderate swing vote in a 50-50 Senate derailed passage of the budget reconciliation bill late last year when he said he could not vote for it. As for his own engagement with the White House on the spending package, Manchin added, “No formal talks at all.” Sen. Mazie Hirono (D-Hawaii) also told reporters yesterday that she did not recall the “Build Back Better Act” being discussed at the meeting, nor did she expect Biden to speak specifically about the package during his upcoming speech. The State of the Union is still two weeks off, but if Biden sidesteps the bill, it would serve as a stark admission that the party is running out of options, or perhaps political will, to salvage it. Hirono did say she imagined there would be opportunities for Biden to speak about issues “within the rubric” of the reconciliation bill, as Democrats continue to say they should be pushing for enactment of policies around climate, child care and drug pricing. The meeting with Klain was convened as an opportunity for the White House to brief senators on the president’s plans for his State of the Union speech. Sen. Ben Cardin (D-Md.) echoed Hirono’s assessment. “We didn’t talk about it as a vehicle for passage,” he said. “We did talk a lot about the items that are included in ‘Build Back Better.’” Some Democrats characterized the meeting differently, suggesting that while Klain might not have come in with a desire to discuss the bill, he was still asked about its status. “You can’t get a group of Democrats together on Capitol Hill” without the topic coming up, said Sen. Jeff Merkley (D-Ore.). “Several of us asked about the strategy, but I’ll leave it to [Klain] to let him talk to you all directly on that.” While Merkley wouldn’t share what that strategy was to keep the bill alive, he confirmed his belief that the Biden administration was determined that “these issues will get addressed. Exactly how they get addressed, it may not be the same package, the same structure, the same name — we didn’t get details.”
Biden is traveling the country pitching his Build Back Better plan, but there is no bill and talks have evaporated - The Washington Post -To hear President Biden tell it, his Build Back Better plan is “close” to passing the Senate and delivering relief to Americans struggling with the cost of prescription drugs. He has talked this month of how it would cap child-care costs for many Americans and how utility companies are embracing its climate and energy initiatives.But it’s not clear such a plan exists anymore, at least in any recognizable form. Behind the scenes, discussions between the White House and key senators on what was once a massive climate and social spending package have virtually evaporated. It’s far from evident what, if any, version of Biden’s once-sweeping proposal could pass this year and what it would include. Would it be a climate plan? A prescription drug initiative? A health-care bill? According to Biden’s descriptions, it’s all of the above. Yet Biden has also conceded that the proposal will need to be broken into chunks after talks collapsed late last year, and that it is unlikely to include an extension of an expanded child-care tax credit. First lady Jill Bidenrecently acknowledged that two years of tuition-free community college is no longer part of it — a reality that congressional negotiators have understood for months. Congress has in many ways moved on to other priorities, and Biden’s forthcoming Supreme Court nomination is expected to occupy the Senate’s attention for much of this spring. Yet Biden sometimes makes it sound as though Build Back Better is on the cusp of passage.In Culpeper, Va., last week, Biden appeared with Rep. Abigail Spanberger (D-Va.) to speak of cutting prescription drug costs. “In my Build Back Better legislation that, with Abigail’s leadership, passed in the House of Representatives, we can do that,” he said, adding, “Now we just have to get through the United States Senate — and we’re close.” During Thursday’s lunch of Senate Democrats attended by White House chief of staff Ron Klain and other top administration officials, the topic of Build Back Better barely surfaced, according to senators in attendance. Rather, the group focused on broad measures to help Americans cut costs, such as a temporary suspension of the gas tax.A month after the House passed a version of Build Back Better last fall, Sen. Joe Manchin III (D-W.Va.) came out against the package. With the Senate divided 50-50 between Democrats and Republicans and the GOP united against the package, Manchin’s support was, and remains, critical to any deal.Manchin said this week that “there have been no formal talks for quite a while” on the proposal.Another centrist senator whose vote is far from certain is Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (D-Ariz.). One official familiar with the situation said there has been no substantive outreach from the administration to Sinema about resuscitating any version of the package, which once stood around $2 trillion. The person spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss private dynamics.To some, the president risks sounding like a salesman without a product.
With climate bill stalled, Democrats push EJ agenda - House Natural Resources Chair Raúl Grijalva is ready to put his party’s signature environmental justice legislation back in the spotlight. Tomorrow, the Arizona Democrat will convene the first hearing since late 2020 on the “Environmental Justice for All Act,” which would provide more protection for communities and individuals affected by pollution and environmental safety hazards. His latest version of the two-year-old “Environmental Justice for All Act,” H.R. 2021, would require federal agencies to consider community health impacts during permitting decisions; codify into law the federal government’s existing environmental justice initiatives; and impose new fees on oil, gas and coal companies to fund local transitions away from fossil fuel economies. The bill would also reverse a 2001 Supreme Court ruling that has made it harder for private citizens to pursue legal remedies when they are victims of actions that disproportionately harm poor, nonwhite communities.It is arguably the most ambitious environmental justice framework ever championed on Capitol Hill, developed by Grijalva with Rep. Donald McEachin (D-Va.) in the previous Congress in consultation with advocates, activists and those who live and work in front-line communities. Grijalva and McEachin reintroduced the legislation back in March 2021. But around that time, the two lawmakers told E&E News that while they had no plans to abandon this legislative push, they were content to give the new Biden administration some time to prove its commitment to implementing environmental justice polices through executive actions (E&E Daily, Feb. 5, 2021).At the end of January 2021, for instance, President Biden signed an order for federal agencies to emphasize environmental justice in their own policymaking, plus directed 40 percent of the government’s climate change spending to flow to disadvantaged communities. Grijalva and McEachin hailed the directive as a game-changer.Then came the Democratic efforts to pass the budget reconciliation measure known as the “Build Back Better Act” — another opportunity to achieve some of the goals of the “Environmental Justice for All Act” by reducing pollution, removing lead pipes and incentivizing companies to make the switch to clean energy sources.Yet in a sign Grijalva was already worried about what would survive in the final package, he warned in a letter to Biden last fall that any spending reductions to the climate portion of the reconciliation bill could prevent Democrats from “honor[ing] … our shared commitment to seeking environmental justice, embodied in the Environmental Justice for All Act and the Justice40 initiative” (E&E Daily, Oct. 15, 2021). Grijalva was ultimately able to stave off the cost-saving measures he feared, but opposition from Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) on the broader package has now stalled momentum on the entire bill, seemingly indefinitely (E&E Daily, Feb. 11).
With immigration bill in flux, Democrats mull executive action - As Democrats’ chances of passing major immigration legislation this Congress dwindle, lawmakers and advocates are eyeing another strategy.Many are ramping up calls on President Joe Biden to use executive action to deliver immigration relief through temporary protected status, a designation that provides legal protections to immigrants fleeing countries in crisis.The move could provide stability, for the interim, to hundreds of thousands of immigrants — and give the Democrats something to tout in the midterm elections. Immigrants who hold temporary protected status are protected from deportation. They’re eligible to apply for work authorization, and can travel outside the U.S., but do not have a guaranteed path to permanent residency or citizenship.“In the absence of other Hill action, this would give the immigrant community something that it’s really needed,” said Vanessa Cardenas, deputy director of the advocacy group America’s Voice. “It will also — in light of everything that’s been happening, the fact that we don’t have a path forward on the legislative front — just be a benefit to reengaging the immigrant community and moving forward.” Democrats had hoped their sweeping plan to legalize millions of immigrants and cut visa backlogs would be permitted in a broad budget reconciliation package, but the Senate parliamentarian rejected three separate attempts to include them. Meanwhile, the package itself is in flux as Democratic leaders seek consensus with a handful of moderates who oppose it.Included in that plan was a provision to make immigrants with TPS eligible for lawful permanent residency and, eventually, citizenship. That possibility now seems increasingly unlikely.
Ocasio-Cortez laments 'sh-- show' of Congress After three years on Capitol Hill, Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.) has formulated a gloomy assessment of Congress and its inner workings, characterizing Washington’s legislative process as "a shit show" of missed opportunities and badly laid plans. In a long and wide-ranging interview with The New Yorker’s David Remnick, Ocasio-Cortez — the most prominent voice of the far-left “Squad” — criticizes President Biden as unassertive, Republicans as undemocratic and the media as sensational.But she reserves some of her harshest words for leaders in her own caucus, particularly when it comes to the process of devising legislative strategy. “Honestly, it is a shit show. It’s scandalizing, every single day,” she told Remnick for the story, published on Monday. “Some folks perhaps get used to it, or desensitized to the many different things that may be broken,” she added. “But there is so much reliance on this idea that there are adults in the room, and, in some respect, there are. But sometimes to be in a room with some of the most powerful people in the country and see the ways that they make decisions — sometimes they’re just susceptible to groupthink, susceptible to self-delusion.” Ocasio-Cortez pointed to the debate surrounding the bipartisan infrastructure bill as it moved through Congress last year as an example. Initially, House liberals had blocked the Senate-passed proposal, insisting that the House first approve a separate and larger package — the $2 trillion Build Back Better Act — which includes a host of education, climate and family benefit programs at the center of Biden’s domestic agenda. Yet after a months-long stalemate — and in the face of growing pressure from moderate Democrats in both chambers — Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) altered course and brought the infrastructure bill to the floor alone. It marked a major victory for Biden, but the Build Back Better Act has been stalled ever since. “People really just talk themselves into thinking that passing the infrastructure plan on that day, in that week, is the most singular important decision of the presidency, more than voting rights, more than the Build Back Better Act itself, which contains the vast majority of the president’s actual plan,” Ocasio-Cortez said. “You’re kind of sitting there in the room and watching people work themselves up into a decision. It’s a fascinating psychological moment that you’re watching unfold.”
State Department urges US citizens to leave Belarus amid Russian military buildup along border - The State Department on Monday warned Americans against traveling to Belarus due to the ongoing buildup of Russian military along the Eastern European country's border with Ukraine as U.S. officials continue to warn that a Russian invasion of Ukraine could occur as soon as this week. "Due to an increase in unusual and concerning Russian military activity near the border with Ukraine, U.S. citizens located in or considering travel to Belarus should be aware that the situation is unpredictable and there is heightened tension in the region," the State Department said in the advisory. "Potential harassment targeted specifically at foreigners is also possible. Given the heightened volatility of the situation, U.S. citizens are strongly advised against traveling to Belarus," the department added. The advisory warned that the U.S. government may be limited in its ability to provide emergency services to U.S. citizens in Belarus due to already being "severely limited due to Belarusian government limitations on U.S. Embassy staffing." The advisory comes on the same day that the U.S. announced it was closing its embassy in Kyiv and moving operations more than 300 miles to the west to the city of Lviv. “We are in the process of temporarily relocating our Embassy operations in Ukraine from our Embassy in Kyiv to Lviv due to the dramatic acceleration in the buildup of Russian forces,” Secretary of State Antony Blinken said in a statement.
Biden: Ukraine invasion still ‘distinctly possible’ despite Russian claims --Joe Biden has claimed that 150,000 Russian troops remain in a “threatening position” around Ukraine, despite Russian claims of a withdrawal, and warned that an invasion “remains distinctly possible”. In a televised address from the White House on Tuesday afternoon, Biden combined a repeated offer of security talks with a warning of severe repercussions if Russia carries out an attack that US intelligence has reportedly assessed could take place as early as Wednesday. Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskiy said earlier that Wednesday would be a “day of unity” for the country, urging people to fly flags and sing the national anthem at 10am. In his speech, Biden said he would “rally the world” to oppose Russian military action but made clear that the response would be primarily economic, saying: “I will not send American servicemen to fight in Ukraine.” But he made clear that any attack on Nato territory or harm to Americans would be treated differently. “We’re not seeking direct confrontation with Russia, though I’ve been clear that if Russia targets Americans and Ukraine, we will respond forcefully,” Biden said. “If Russia attacks the United States or our allies through asymmetric means, like disruptive cyber-attacks against our companies or critical infrastructure, we’re prepared to respond.” Earlier in the day, the websites run by the Ukrainian defence ministry, the armed forces and the country’s largest commercial bank, PrivatBank, and Oschadbank were closed down after a cyber-attack. The Washington Post cited intelligence sources as saying the attack was probably the work of Russian government hackers, but the White House said it could not comment on attribution.
Russia Mocks US, Requests 'Full List Of Ukraine Invasion Dates' For Year Ahead - Wednesday, February 16 is now coming to an end (local time in Kiev & Moscow) - and there's not been anything of the "expected" Russian invasion that Washington has for days been breathlessly predicting. To review, below is Politico's reporting from last Friday - the afternoon where White House officials spread panic into the markets and the population: NatSec Daily was told by a person familiar that President Joe Biden told Western leaders about the Feb.16 date on an hour-long call today. Russia will start a physical assault on Ukraine as soon as Feb. 16, multiple U.S. officials confirmed to POLITICO, and Washington communicated to allies that it could be preceded by a barrage of missile strikes and cyberattacks. One person said the leaders’ call indicated that cyberattacks are “imminent” and another said the intelligence is “specific and alarming.” Sullivan mentioned that any attack on Ukraine could begin with “aerial bombing and missile attacks.” Russia's Foreign Ministry is now unleashing a storm of criticism in the form of mockery and memes, with ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova on Wednesday jokingly requesting of the US and UK governments and media to go ahead and publish a schedule of Russia’s "upcoming invasions" of Ukraine for the current year. She said that she's worried about timing her vacations so they don't get interrupted by her country's scheduled invasions... "I’d like to request US and British disinformation: Bloomberg, The New York Times and The Sun media outlets to publish the schedule for our upcoming invasions for the year. I’d like to plan my vacation," the Russian diplomat said on her Telegram channel Wednesday. One Russian journalist quipped in the aftermath of the complaint about officials wanting to "plan" their vacations, "This is not satire. They did this."
Sanctions Set America On The Path To War, Claiming Lives With No Benefit - Sanctions have quickly become the foreign policy establishment’s favorite tool. Blacklisting governments opposed to the empire’s agenda allows for politicians to look tough on ‘evil regimes’ while stopping short of the type of warfare that is largely opposed by the American people. US leaders present sanctions as a low-cost option to punish bad actors and give oppressed people a chance to rise up. However, the results are almost always the opposite. The Cuban embargo presents the best empirical evidence of the failure of sanctions. Though the blockade just celebrated its 60th anniversary, the Castro government remains in power, serving only to increase the country’s poverty, not its freedom. While Joe Biden campaigned on rolling back the Donald Trump-era restrictions on trade and travel to Cuba, he has so far failed to live up to that promise and is likely to pass the blockade onto his successor. Further, Cuba presents a perfect example of the hypocritical demands Washington attaches to its sanctions. As the US says Cuba must free its people to access the world economy, it continues to run a lawless torture prison on the island, largely filled with innocent Muslims. Since the Kennedy presidency, sanctions have been wielded against a long list of countries. The US is currently waging ‘maximum pressure’ campaigns against Iran, Venezuela, North Korea, and Syria, a blockade against Yemen and Cuba, a trade war with China, and additional penalties on various people in Russia, Asia, the Middle East, Latin America, and Africa for assorted infractions of the US-enforced “rules-based international order.” Those policies have seldom had the intended result. Not to be deterred by the decades of failures, the US government is seeking to ramp up its economic wars even further. For weeks, Senate leadership has been negotiating a sweeping bill that would target Russia’s economy. In describing the “Mother of all Sanctions” proposal to the Washington Post this week, Senate Democrat Bob Menendez salivated over the prospect of “devastating” Russia’s economy, saying “every Russian would feel it at the end of the day.”A troubling aspect of this new bill is its attempt to tie future Russia sanctions to cyberattacks, with Democratic Senator Chris Murphy saying “If there were pre-invasion sanctions, they would be connected to Russian cyberattacks inside Ukraine.”Of course, the US has wrongly at has wrongly attributed several ‘cyberattacks’ to Russia in recent years. Though economic sanctions lack the graphic violence of a bombing campaign, the US government is well aware of their cruel effects on impoverished people the world over. More than 100,000 children were killed as a result of penalties on Iraq in the 1990s, and ongoing sanctions continue to produce food and medicine shortages in Iran and Venezuela – where they’re estimated to have claimed tens of thousands of lives. In Yemen, meanwhile, the world’s most dire humanitarian crisis rages on thanks in no small part to a US-backed blockade of the country’s commercial ports. At least 377,000 people have died throughout the Saudi-US war there, many from deprivation. However, freezing Afghanistan out of the world economy may be the most brutal example of US economic warfare. The UN is seeking billions in aid for Afghans and estimating that millions could starve to death because of destitution. A number of international officials have posited that the new Afghan government’s – yes, the Taliban – inability to access the international market and state bank accounts is a major cause of the suffering.While there seems to be an obvious ethical issue with starving children to death, Murphy sees possible aid going to the Taliban as a bigger problem, arguing “There is, frankly, moral hazard in putting billions into Afghanistan right now.” Oddly, Murphy sees Trump’s ‘maximum pressure’ campaign on Iran as a “spectacular failure.”
Rand Paul threatens to block Ukraine-Russia resolution - Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.) warned on Thursday that he will block quick passage of a symbolic resolution supporting Ukraine and sending a warning to Russia unless it incorporates changes he wants. “We have some amendments to it. We believe that it should say nothing in this resolution is to be construed as an authorization of war and nothing in this resolution is to be construed as authorizing the use of troops into Ukraine,” Paul said. Paul said that he offered the amendments to sponsors of the resolution on Wednesday night but they were rejected. He said that he would object to quickly passing the resolution if it doesn’t incorporate his amendments. Because the bipartisan group is trying to pass the resolution by unanimous consent, they need buy-in from every senator to allow the resolution to pass quickly. Sen. Rob Portman (R-Ohio) said that he was in talks with Paul. “We’re working through it,” Portman said.
Senate passes resolution supporting Ukraine amid invasion fears - The Senate on Thursday night passed a resolution supporting Kyiv and urging President Biden to “impose significant costs” if Russia invaded Ukraine. The resolution, which passed the Senate by a voice vote, comes as senators are leaving town for a one-week break amid growing concern from U.S. officials, including President Biden, that an invasion by Moscow is imminent. “By acting in bipartisan fashion today, the United States Senate sent a strong message to Russia and the world that we stand with Ukraine,” Sen. Rob Portman (R-Ohio) said in a statement. Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D-N.H.), who sponsored the resolution with Portman, added that “by overwhelmingly voting in favor of this resolution, today the Senate spoke with one voice.” “Democrats and Republicans are united and committed to supporting our Ukrainian partners against the Kremlin’s escalating violence and aggression. Putin will make a gross miscalculation and suffer the full weight of the U.S. Congress if he decides to further invade Ukraine,” Shaheen said. The Senate’s passage of the resolution, which was co-sponsored by roughly 40 senators, comes after Senate leadership and members of top committees released a joint statement saying that if Putin escalated "his ongoing assault on Ukraine’s sovereignty, Russia must be made to pay a severe price." "This was a very significant resolution that we passed. It was led by Senators Shaheen and Portman and sends a very strong message to Mr. Putin that the United States Senate, Democrats and Republicans of all different ideologies, are united in defending Ukraine in the ways that the administration sees fit," Senate Majority Leader Charles Schumer (D-N.Y.) said after the Senate passed the resolution on Thursday night. There's growing concern in Washington that Putin is likely to invade Ukraine.
Biden is 'convinced' Putin has decided to invade Ukraine - U.S. President Joe Biden said Friday that he is “convinced” Russian President Vladimir Putin has decided to invade Ukraine, including an assault on the capital, as tensions spiked along the country's militarized line with attacks that the West said could be “false-flag” operations meant to establish a pretext for invasion.A humanitarian convoy was hit by shelling, and pro-Russian rebels evacuated civilians from the conflict zone. A car bombing hit the eastern city of Donetsk, but no casualties were reported.After weeks of saying the U.S. wasn’t sure if Putin had made the final decision to invade, Biden said that assessment had changed, citing American intelligence.“As of this moment I’m convinced he’s made the decision,” Biden said. “We have reason to believe that.” He reiterated that the assault could occur in the “coming days.”Meanwhile, the Kremlin announced massive nuclear drills to flex its military muscle, and Putin pledged to protect Russia’s national interests against what it sees as encroaching Western threats.Biden reiterated his threat of massive economic and diplomatic sanctions against Russia if it does invade, and pressed Putin to rethink his course of action. He said the U.S. and its Western allies were more united than ever to ensure Russia pays a price for the invasion.With an estimated 150,000 Russian troops posted around Ukraine’s borders, U.S. and European officials warn that the long-simmering separatist conflict in eastern Ukraine could provide the spark for a broader attack.As further indication that the Russians are preparing for a potential invasion, a U.S. defense official said an estimated 40% to 50% of the ground forces deployed in the vicinity of the Ukrainian border have moved into attack positions nearer the border. That shift has been under way for about a week, other officials have said, and does not necessarily mean Putin has decided to begin an invasion. The defense official spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss internal U.S. military assessments.
US, NATO double down on war threats against Russia over Ukraine --Events are exposing the threats and lies that the NATO powers are using to launch a war drive against Russia. Yesterday, the date US officials had said would see the beginning of Russia’s conquest of Ukraine, came and went without any Russian invasion whatsoever, and Russia in fact pulled back units deployed along its border with Ukraine for military exercises. US and NATO officials nevertheless stepped up military deployments to Eastern Europe and repeated their empty accusations that Russia is preparing to attack Ukraine. Even as Moscow released videos of its tanks leaving Crimea and Belarus after these exercises, NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg again denounced Russia in a press conference opening the two-day NATO defense ministers conference that began yesterday in Brussels. On the Russian videos, he baldly claimed that “we have not seen any sign of de-escalation on the ground. Russia has amassed a fighting force in and around Ukraine, unprecedented since the Cold War. Everything is now in place for a new attack. But Russia still has time to step back from the brink.” Members of Ukraine’s Territorial Defense Forces, volunteer military units of the Armed Forces, train in a city park in Kyiv, Ukraine, Jan. 22, 2022. (AP Photo/Efrem Lukatsky, File) Stoltenberg thrust aside Moscow’s concerns that NATO could admit states on Russia’s borders, such as Ukraine or Georgia, and station offensive weapons there. “Every nation has the right to choose its own path,” he claimed, as NATO defense ministers prepared to meet the Ukrainian and Georgian defense ministers today. Stoltenberg also pledged to move ahead with plans to permanently station NATO battle groups in Eastern Europe and ensure NATO nuclear weapons are ready for use. “We have deployed more troops, planes, and ships to the eastern part of the Alliance, increased the readiness of our NATO Response Force, and boosted our battle groups in the Baltic region,” he said, adding: “NATO defense ministers will address the need to further increase our defensive posture. And I welcome the offer by France to lead a new NATO battle group in Romania. Tomorrow, I will also chair a regular meeting of the Nuclear Planning Group, ensuring that our nuclear deterrent remains safe, secure, and effective.” Stoltenberg echoed earlier remarks by US Secretary of State Antony Blinken. Without denying that Russian troops were leaving the border area, Blinken insisted that Washington had seen “no meaningful pullback” of Russian troops. “On the contrary, we continue to see forces, especially forces that would be in the vanguard of any renewed aggression against Ukraine, continuing to be at the border, to mass at the border,” he said, claiming that Russian President Vladimir Putin “could pull the trigger.” This hysterical language aims to distract from the discrediting of NATO’s concocted anti-Russian narrative, which has no basis in fact whatsoever, and to justify a reckless military buildup. NATO officials’ warnings of a Russian invasion were again directly contradicted by the pro-NATO government in Ukraine they are supposedly protecting from Russia. After Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has repeatedly stated publicly that Russia does not have sufficient troops in the area to invade Ukraine, Ukrainian military intelligence released its own formal assessment yesterday. It declared: “The Russian military contingent near the Ukrainian border is insufficient to carry out a successful large-scale armed aggression against Ukraine.”
What Is Going to Happen in Ukraine? - Medea Benjamin - Every day brings new noise and fury in the crisis over Ukraine, mostly from Washington. But what is really likely to happen? There are three possible scenarios:The first is that Russia will suddenly launch an unprovoked invasion of Ukraine.The second is that the Ukrainian government in Kyiv will launch an escalation of its civil war against the self-declared People’s Republics of Donetsk (DPR) and Luhansk (LPR), provoking various possible reactions from other countries.The third is that neither of these will happen, and the crisis will pass without a major escalation of the war in the short term. So who will do what, and how will other countries respond in each case?
- An Unprovoked Russian invasion seems to be the least likely outcome. An actual Russian invasion would unleash unpredictable and cascading consequences that could escalate quickly, leading to mass civilian casualties, a new refugee crisis in Europe, war between Russia and NATO, or even nuclear war. If Russia wanted to annex the DPR and LPR, it could have done so amid the crisis that followed the U.S.-backed coup in Ukraine in 2014. Russia already faced a furious Western response over its annexation of Crimea, so the international cost of annexing the DPR and LPR, which were also asking to rejoin Russia, would have been less then than it would be now. Russia instead adopted a carefully calculated position in which it gave the Republics only covert military and political support. If Russia was really ready to risk so much more now than in 2014, that would be a dreadful reflection of just how far U.S.-Russian relations have sunk. If Russia does launch an unprovoked invasion of Ukraine or annex the DPR and LPR, Biden has already said that the United States and NATO would not directly fight a war with Russia over Ukraine, although that promise could be severely tested by the hawks in Congress and a media hellbent on stirring up anti-Russia hysteria. However, the United States and its allies would definitely impose heavy new sanctions on Russia, cementing the Cold War economic and political division of the world between the United States and its allies on one hand, and Russia, China and their allies on the other. Biden would achieve the full-blown Cold War that successive U.S. administrations have been cooking up for a decade, and which seems to be the unstated purpose of this manufactured crisis.
- The second scenario, an escalation of the civil war by Ukrainian forces, seems more likely.Whether it is a full-scale invasion of the Donbas or something less, its main purpose from the U.S. point of view would be to provoke Russia into intervening more directly in Ukraine, to fulfill Biden’s prediction of a “Russian invasion” and unleash the maximum pressure sanctions he has threatened.While Western leaders have been warning of a Russian invasion of Ukraine, Russian, DPR and LPR officials have been warning for months that Ukrainian government forces were escalating the civil war and have 150,000 troops and new weapons poised to attack the DPR and LPR.In that scenario, the massive U.S. and Western arms shipments arriving in Ukraine on the pretext of deterring a Russian invasion would in fact be intended for use in an already planned Ukrainian government offensive.On one hand, if U krainian President Zelensky and his government are planning an offensive in the East, why are they so publicly playing down fears of a Russian invasion? Surely they would be joining the chorus from Washington, London and Brussels, setting the stage to point their fingers at Russia as soon as they launch their own escalation.
- Nothing Happens. This would be the best outcome of all: an anti-climax to celebrate. At some point, absent an invasion by Russia or an escalation by Ukraine, Biden would sooner or later have to stop crying “Wolf” every day.All sides could climb back down from their military build-ups, panicked rhetoric and threatened sanctions.The Minsk Protocol could be revived, revised and reinvigorated to provide a satisfactory degree of autonomy to the people of the DPR and LPR within Ukraine, or facilitate a peaceful separation. The United States, Russia and China could begin more serious diplomacy to reduce the threat ofnuclear war and resolve their many differences, so that the world could move forward to peace and prosperity instead of backwards to Cold War and nuclear brinkmanship.
Conclusion: However it ends, this crisis should be a wake-up call for Americans of all classes and political persuasions to reevaluate our country’s position in the world. We have squandered trillions of dollars, and millions of other people’s lives, with our militarism and imperialism. The U.S. military budget keeps rising with no end in sight–and now the conflict with Russia has become another justification for prioritizing weapons spending over the needs of our people. Our corrupt leaders have tried but failed to strangle the emerging multipolar world at birth through militarism and coercion. As we can see after 20 years of war in Afghanistan, we cannot fight and bomb our way to peace or stability, and coercive economic sanctions can be almost as brutal and destructive. We must also re-evaluate the role of NATO and wind down this military alliance that has become such an aggressive and destructive force in the world. Instead, we must start thinking about how a post-imperial America can play a cooperative and constructive role in this new multipolar world, working with all our neighbors to solve the very serious problems facing humanity in the 21st Century.
US steals billions in Afghan bank funds -In an action that combines brazen theft, imperialist brutality and unlimited hypocrisy, the Biden administration announced Friday that it will seize control of $7 billion in Afghanistan financial assets, held largely at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, rather than return them to the Afghanistan central bank. Media attention has largely been devoted to Biden’s splitting of the $7 billion, with $3.5 billion set aside to meet the legal claims of survivors of the 9/11 terrorist attacks, and $3.5 billion to be used for “humanitarian aid” to the people of Afghanistan. Both actions are cynical diversions from what is an effort to starve the country and avenge the humiliating defeat which US imperialism suffered last summer. The $3.5 billion supposedly to be used for aid will not be available for many months, if ever, as State Department officials acknowledged over the weekend, ensuring that nothing will reach the starving population of Afghanistan during the winter months. According to the UN World Food Program, some 23 million Afghans face hunger and malnutrition this year, while UNICEF warns that as many as one million Afghan children could die of severe malnutrition and outright starvation. The delay is due to the administration’s decision to allow legal claims against the Taliban amounting to $7 billion, awarded by default in a court proceeding nearly a decade ago, to go forward. Some of the plaintiffs are likely to challenge the 50-50 split in Afghan bank funds, which could tie up any allocation more or less indefinitely. That appears to be the real purpose of the Biden decision: to allow millions to suffer and starve in Afghanistan, while claiming to be above the battle. “It’s all up to the courts,” Biden will declare, washing his hands of the spectacle of mass death in Central Asia, just as he has facilitated mass death in the COVID pandemic. In addition, by refusing to return any portion of the $7 billion to the central bank of Afghanistan, the Biden administration intensifies its vengeful wrecking operation against the Afghan economy. Without a functioning central bank—and outright collapse is now a distinct possibility now that its main reserves have been confiscated—Afghan banks and businesses cannot function, workers cannot be paid, no international corporation will do business with the country, and few aid organizations will be able to operate.
Biden administration eyes $30 billion for COVID-19 funding in talks with Congress -The Biden administration signaled it will request $30 billion in supplemental COVID-19 funding during discussions with Congress on Tuesday, including money for vaccines, testing and treatment. The discussions come ahead of a March 11 deadline for a government funding package, which could serve as a vehicle for more COVID-19 funds. Sen. Roy Blunt (R-Mo.) told reporters he spoke to Health and Human Services Secretary Xavier Becerra on Tuesday and is expecting a $30 billion request. "I talked to Secretary Becerra today, and I think they're going to be proposing a $30 billion supplemental," Blunt said, according to audio provided by his office. He noted that he had previously questioned if money already provided was still available but said: "Frankly in the categories they're asking for money, the other money has all been spent or committed to the purposes it was appropriated for." An HHS spokesperson confirmed the discussions, saying agency leaders "discussed the status of COVID response funds as well as the need for additional resources to support securing more life-saving treatments and vaccines, sustaining testing capacity, and investing in research and development of next-generation vaccines." "These resources would help us continue expanding the tools the country needs to stay ahead of the virus and help us move toward the time when COVID-19 will not disrupt our daily lives," the statement added. The statement made no mention of additional funding for global vaccinations, an area where Democratic lawmakers have been pushing for more action. The Congressional Progressive Caucus, as well as other Democratic lawmakers, has been pushing for $17 billion for global vaccinations. Asked about the COVID-19 funding talks in general on Tuesday, White House Press Secretary Jen Psaki said "what we're trying to do now is stay ahead" of the virus.
McConnell calls out 'maskless' Super Bowl celebs as school mandates remain - Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) on Monday pointed to large maskless crowds at Sunday's Super Bowl while taking aim at policies that impose school mask mandates on children. McConnell, speaking from the Senate floor, singled out celebrities who dotted the massive crowd in SoFi Stadium who were seen not wearing masks, using it as a chance to question why children in some school districts still had to wear face coverings in the classroom. "Americans who watched the Super Bowl saw rich celebrities having a grand time with hardly a mask in sight. But under Democrats' policies, first graders who watched that big maskless party last night had to wake up this morning and cover their own faces in order to go to school," McConnell said. NFL guidelines indicated that attendees were required abide by certain COVID-19 protocols, including providing proof of vaccination or a negative COVID-19 test from the past 48 hours as well as wearing a mask at all times inside the SoFi Stadium except for when they were eating or drinking. Despite these rules, a bulk of the 80,000 people in the crowd were seen on television on Sunday without masks on as they watched the Los Angeles Rams face off against the Cincinnati Bengals. "Americans classrooms seem to be the last places where local, state and federal Democrats will accept that cost benefit calculations exist and zero transmission is simply not possible," McConnell added.Several Democratic governors in the last week have moved to ease or lift mask mandates indoors, citing a decrease in case loads and hospitalization rate, but some of those states are still requiring children to wear them in school. Nevada Gov. Steve Sisolak (D) rescinded all state-issued mask mandates in his state last week due to optimistic pandemic metrics. New Jersey Gov. Phil Murphy (D) lifted mask mandates for schools in his state, which will take effect in coming weeks.
As US COVID-19 deaths continue to surge, corporate media maintains near blackout - COVID-19 deaths in the United States have reached their highest level during the Omicron wave, coinciding not with escalating efforts to save lives but an escalating drive to cover up the devastating impact of the pandemic on the health of the American people. Mandatory reporting of COVID-19 deaths by hospital systems to the US Department of Health and Humans Services (DHSS) ended on February 2, 2022. Additionally, in quick succession, states across the country are allowing their mask mandates to lapse. New York Governor Kathy Hochul dropped the state’s stringent indoor mask mandate last Wednesday. These include populous Democratic-held states, such as Illinois, California and New Jersey, to name a few. According to the Worldometer dashboard, the 7-day moving average reached 2,600 deaths per day by the end of January. On February 1, 2022, the New York Times COVID-19 dashboard recorded a daily average of 2,653 deaths with a single-day high of 3,582. Since then, the COVID-19 trackers report a sudden and significant drop in the daily death averages—2,044 for Worldometer and 2,454 for the New York Times. Only the Johns Hopkins coronavirus resource center, one of the leading and most reliable trackers frequently used by government and international bodies, has indicated that the number of deaths has plateaued or continues to climb though at a much slower pace. According to their tracker, the 7-day average for COVID-19 deaths remains over 2,500. Indeed, the change in the trajectory of deaths can be supported by the decline in new infections and hospitalizations for COVID-19, although they still remain at pandemic highs. However, other countries with similar trajectories in their infection metrics have continued to see deaths climb, with Denmark and South Africa being two notable examples. Aside from how hospital administrators and health officials are adjusting their reports of COVID-19 hospitalizations and deaths, recent efforts on the part of states and governments to dismantle reporting systems are part of the more considerable effort to dispense with such metrics altogether as they interfere with efforts to force schools and businesses to open and stay open while getting the country back to work en masse permanently.
Leading From Behind: CDC Hints COVID Mask Mandate Will End 'Next Week' Now That States Have Moved First -- For the umpteenth time since the start of the COVID pandemic, the US CDC is leading from behind. Already, more than a dozen states including California (the largest by population) had already decided on their own to lift COVID-inspired masking measures in most public places, the federal agency is only now just ready to admit that they have served their purpose, and are ready to be retired.NBC News apparently got the scoop: they were the first to report that teh CDC is planning to finally drop its federal mask mandate - or "loosen" its guidelines on indoor masking, as NBC News writes it - as early a s "next week". CDC Director Dr. Rochelle Walensky later confirmed as much during a CDC press briefing. Here's what she reportedly told NBC News:Dr. Rochelle Walensky, the director of the CDC, is expected to discuss masking guidance Wednesday at a White House Covid-19 Response Team briefing. Nothing has been finalized yet, but the CDC is considering a new benchmark for whether masks are needed, basing it on the level of severe disease and hospitalizations in a given community, two people familiar with the situation said. The White House has been eager for the CDC to provide an update on its indoor mask recommendation, although it wants the agency to get it right and it doesn’t want to appear as though it is putting political pressure on the agency, said the two people familiar with the plans, who weren’t authorized to speak publicly.To be sure, as Walensky herself insisted yet again (perhaps on the off chance that cases come soaring back next week, which, judging on prior data, seems highly unlikely, but we suppose not impossible) no final decisions have yet been made. Even Dr. Anthony Fauci himself has suggested that he now feels it might be appropriate to abandon the masking guidance as the number of newly confirmed COVID cases falls sharply. States’ making changes to their mask rules is "entirely understandable," Fauci said. "At the local level, there is a strong feeling of need to get back to normality."
In warning to U.S., COVID rates soar after Denmark lifts all restrictions - At the beginning of February, Denmark became the first major country to lift the last of its COVID-19 restrictions and effectively declare its part in the pandemic over. Around the world, and especially in the United States, Denmark’s “liberation” from indoor mask mandates, vaccine passports and nightclub closures was heralded as a watershed moment — the shape of things to come. Democratic governors across the U.S. started rescinding their own mask rules a few days later.“This marks the transition to a new era for all of us, because Denmark will once again be an open society, completely open,” said Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen. “We dare to believe that we are now through the critical phase."Since then, however, Denmark has continued to record more COVID-19 cases per capita than nearly anywhere else in the world, and both COVID hospitalizations and deaths have shot up by about a third.“Not looking good in Denmark,” Dr. Eric Topol, founder and director of the Scripps Translational Institute, tweeted Sunday, sharing several charts that terminated in near-vertical upward lines. “Deaths are now 67% of peak, with a steep ascent.”“The world is looking to Denmark as a guide to removing all restrictions,” Topoladded in a subsequent tweet, “and it seems that we've seen this movie before.” He then attached a screenshot of a news story headlined “Denmark lifts all coronavirus restrictions and celebrates ‘a whole new era’” — from Sept. 10, 2021. Topol’s argument was clear: By ending mitigation measures prematurely, Denmark has brought a resurgence of infection, hospitalization and death upon itself — and anyone who follows in the country’s footsteps risks doing the same.
Surgeon general's 4-year-old daughter tests positive for COVID-19 - Surgeon General Vivek Murthy said in a Twitter thread on Tuesday that his 4-year-old daughter tested positive for COVID-19, prompting him to wonder if there was more he could have done to protect her. In a series of reflective tweets, Murthy urged the public to get vaccinated against COVID-19 and said "the more we all get vaccinated and take precautions, the more we can protect all our kids." He added that while he wishes there was a vaccine available for his daughter and other children under 5 years of age, "unfortunately more data is still needed from clinical trials for the FDA to make a full assessment." However, he said it continues to remain a top priority. In the thread, Murthy said his daughter had a fever and sore throat and "isn't her usual bubbly self," but added that he's glad his family, including his 5-year-old son, are all vaccinated, as it's hard to isolate a young child from the rest of their family. The surgeon general also shared a series of questions he asked himself after his daughter's positive test: "I asked myself the same questions many parents have asked: Will my child be ok? Could I have done more to protect her? Was this my fault?" He added that it's in moments like this that "it doesn't matter if you’re a doctor or Surgeon General. We are parents first." "I have immense respect for the millions of parents who are grappling with the daily, exhausting decision-making that goes into protecting our kids’ health and their education," he wrote.
Sen. Rand Paul is tired of being 'treated like crap' on planes and wants an end to their mask mandates -- Sen. Rand Paul said he wants to force a vote on his legislation to end mask mandates on airplanes because he's tired of being "treated like crap" as a passenger — and he wants to eat his peanuts in peace."It's a joke, it's theater, and there's no reason to be wearing them on the planes," the senator from Kentucky said on Newsmax. "We are just punishing ourselves. And I for one, I'm tired of paying the airlines to be treated like crap when I get on the plane."Paul, a physician and senior member of the Senate Health, Education and Labor Committee, said he wants to be treated "like a paying customer.""And I want them to bring me at least a glass of water and peanuts and I don't want somebody jammering at me to put my mask on in between peanuts," he added during the Tuesday interview.Airline passengers are required to wear masks in airports and on airlines as a precaution against COVID-19. In July, Paul introduced legislation to prohibit the imposition of mask mandates on public transportation to "put a stop to this nanny state mandate" and saying then that "we've already reached herd immunity."In March 2020, Paul was the first senator known to have tested positive for COVID-19.On Wednesday, Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton sued the Biden administration over the mask mandate in place since February 2021. Republicans are fighting efforts to create a "no fly" list for unruly passengers. In a Monday letter to Attorney General Merrick Garland, eight Republican senators wrote that most infractions on airplanes are related to mask mandates and creating a no-fly list for them would "seemingly equate them to terrorists."
CDC director spouts anti-mask rhetoric as thousands of Americans die daily -Dr. Rochelle Walensky, the director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), said Wednesday, “We want to give people a break from things like mask-wearing.” Walensky’s comments came as 2,200 people were dying on average each day in the US from COVID-19. A poll conducted by CBS News-YouGov found that 56 percent of Americans support mask requirements for indoor venues. Nearly one in 300 people in the US, more than 955,000, have died from COVID-19, certainly an underestimate. Already more than 80 million Americans have been infected in the two years since the pandemic began to take a foothold in the country. Yesterday, 2,184 people were reportedly killed by complications of COVID-19. Over 97 percent of counties in the country are continuing to report high rates of community transmission. COVID-19 Scenario Modeling Hub, a modeling center based out of Penn State University that utilizes multiple datasets to forecast projections which are shared with the White House, had projected that between mid-December to mid-March the US could expect to see 191,000 deaths. Thus far, 130,000 have died and at the current pace this modeling can be construed as a highly reliable estimate. Notably, the Omicron wave produced a peak of deaths that eclipsed even Delta’s onslaught. It was shy of last winter’s catastrophic proportions by 25 percent. And this was despite 75 percent of the adult population having been fully vaccinated. A recent “In the Bubble” podcast hosted by Andy Slavitt, former interim senior advisor to the COVID-19 response coordinator in the Biden administration, featuring Dr. Kristian Andersen of Scripps Clinic in La Jolla, California, raised an important question. What would an endemic infection look like? Andersen noted that a return to 2019 normalcy would mean expecting everyone in the population to get infected at least twice a year. He added, “If we are looking at the number of deaths resulting as a result of this, we have to be realistic too that this is not going to be a common cold or flu.” Slavitt replied, “Look, I don’t think they want to say that, but I do think that implicit in this is an acceptance that there are going to be, at least in the US, 200 to 250 thousand deaths a year at baseline.”
Manchin clarifies: He'd oppose second high court nominee right before presidential election -Centrist Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) on Monday said he would not support confirming another nominee selected by President Biden for the Supreme Court immediately before the 2024 presidential election, clarifying remarks he'd made earlier about the midterm elections. Manchin said he would prefer to wait until the country knows who will occupy the White House in 2025. Manchin walked back the comment he made earlier afternoon indicating that he would not support confirming a second Biden nominee to the Supreme Court if another vacancy occurs shortly before the Nov. 8 midterm election. Asked if the Senate should act if another seat becomes vacant “later in the year closer to the election,” Manchin responded: “I’m not going to be hypocritical on that. “If it comes a week or two weeks before like it did with our last Supreme Court nominee, I think that’s a time it should go to the next election,” he said. Manchin’s comments immediately attracted attention on Twitter after several reporters posted his comments. He then explained to reporters that he “misspoke” and that he would only support holding up a Supreme Court confirmation proceeding immediately before the next presidential election. “I was referring to that election, before a major presidential election,” he said. That’s the position he and other Democrats took in the fall of 2020 after Ruth Bader Ginsburg died in September of that year. Democrats insisted that then-Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) wait until after the election to move a nominee so that the winner of the presidential contest could make the choice — the same position McConnell took in 2016 when he blocked President Obama’s Supreme Court nominee Merrick Garland from getting a Senate hearing or vote. Manchin was outspoken in opposing McConnell’s plan to speed President Trump’s third Supreme Court nominee, Amy Coney Barrett, through the Senate confirmation process before the 2020 presidential election.
GOP senator opposes Biden court pick, likely blocking nominee - Sen. Ron Johnson (R-Wis.) said on Tuesday that he doesn't support President Biden's pick to fill a district court vacancy in his home state, likely dooming the nomination absent a shift by Democrats. Johnson said that he would oppose William Pocan, who was nominated by Biden to be a district judge in the Eastern District of Wisconsin. It marks the first time during the Biden administration a senator has not returned a blue slip — a piece of paper that indicates if a home-state senator supports a nominee — for a district court nominee. "Since Judge Pocan’s nomination, I have been hearing concerns from the Green Bay legal community that they needed a judge who is locally based and actively involved in their community. That is not the case with Judge Pocan," Johnson said in a statement. "In addition, the tragedy in Waukesha never should have happened. That it did, is the direct result of soft on crime low bail policies and court orders. I cannot support someone for a lifetime appointment that has granted low bail for someone charged with violent felonies. That is not in the best interest of Wisconsinites nor Americans. I look forward to working with President Biden on selecting a suitable nominee," he added. Johnson and Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D-Wis.) previously recommended Pocan as a potential pick to fill the vacancy. Wisconsin uses a nominating commission that recommends four to six names to the senators, who then formally make recommendations to the president.
Postal reform bill hits Senate snag A House-passed bill to reform the U.S. Postal Service ran into a speedbump in the Senate on Monday, likely delaying the bill until next month. The Senate had been scheduled to hold an initial vote on the House bill on Monday. But Sen. Rick Scott (R-Fla.), the chairman of the National Republican Senatorial Committee, blocked an attempt by Majority Leader Charles Schumer (D-N.Y.) to make a technical fix to the legislation, after a clerk initially sent over the wrong version of bill last week before the House corrected the error by unanimous consent on Friday. Because Schumer had already teed up an initial vote on the bill with incorrect text, he needed unanimous consent to fix the legisllation. That allowed any one senator to block him. "Unfortunately there are pieces of this bill that blocks the opportunity for us to achieve our shared goal of responsibly reforming the Postal Service. ...I want the Senate to have the opportunity to work on this and improve it and deliver a bill that works," Scott said, noting that he supported some provisions in the bill. "We can't afford to add stress on our already enormous nationa debt with poor financial planning which I think this bill absolutey does," Scott added. Schumer then pulled the vote. Democrats started the process on Monday of putting the corrected legislation on the Senate calendar, which will let Schumer tee it up for a vote. Schumer accused Scott of holding up the bill over a "technical detail." "It's the same bill that was on the floor Thursday where we had an agreement to move on it tonight, but the House sent us a bill with a technical change and five times in the past year this has happened and each time no senator had the temerity to get up and block it on a technical issue," Schumer said. "Even though this will delay the bill, we will pass it. We will have to just go through this elaborate process the old-fashioned and often discredted rules of the Senate that the senator from Florida's employing. We'll have to use them, but will pass this bill," Schumer added. But the Senate is poised to leave town by Friday for a one-week break. Before that they also have nominations on the schedule as well as passing a short-term government funding bill, meaning the postal legislation is expected to have to wait until they return to Washington on Feb. 28. The bill, which passed the House last week, would overhaul the Postal Service. It eliminates a requirement that the Postal Service prepay future retirement health benefits and allows the Postal Service to provide non-postal services as part of an agreement with state and local governments. It also requires that the Postal Service make deliveries six days of the week.
US lifts ban on avocados from Mexico after drug cartel threat - The US has lifted a Mexican avocado ban, which started after American inspectors working in the nation were threatened by drug cartels, officials said. USDA said it reached an agreement with Mexico’s Plant Protection Organization and the Packers Exporters of Mexico to resume inspection and exportation of avocados grown in Michoacan, according to a statement on Twitter. That Mexican state is the only state currently authorized to exports avocados into the United States. Avocados from Mexico were banned last week, after a USDA inspector working in Michoacan received a telephone threat from a Mexican drug cartel. The USDA decided to pause all avocado imports until the safety of its inspectors could be guaranteed. “In the current case, an APHIS inspector questioned the integrity of a particular shipment and refused to certify based on concrete concerns,” said the USDA in a statement to The Post. “Subsequently, the USDA inspector’s supervisor received a phone threat to him and his family.” The USDA says this isn’t the first time USDA personnel has been in danger. “Security incidents in Mexico have not been limited to the avocado program,” said the USDA. “In 2020, a USDA employee conducting detection and eradication activities supporting our fruit fly and citrus pest and disease programs in Northern Mexico was murdered.” This week, the USDA and its Mexican counterparts met with Mexican avocado growers, who presented enhanced security plans for USDA workers, said the Association of Avocado Exporting Producers and Packers of Mexico (APEAM).
Black voters are fleeing Biden in droves. Here's why - Black voters are fleeing President Biden in droves. And it’s hard to see a scenario under which they come back anytime soon. President Biden’s poll numbers have been stunningly bad lately. The most recent CNN poll has him at 58 percent disapproval, 41 percent approval. In December,Biden was at 49 percent approval in the same poll. And among those who disapprove of his performance, 56 percent say the president didn't accomplish anything in his first year of which they approve. Meanwhile, a majority of Democrats don't even want Joe Biden to run again in 2024, with just 48 percent supporting the idea. This is unheard of after just one year. Two more big numbers to consider: Less than 7-in-10 Black voters (69 percent) support the 46th president. This is significant, because more than 9-in-10 Black voters (92 percent) voted for him in 2020. So, we're talking about an almost 25-point drop in a relatively short period of time. Inflation obviously is playing a huge role here, with the Wall Street Journal estimating that the higher price of goods is costing families an extra $276 per month, or an additional $3,300 or so annually. Many poor and middle-income families and single parents and individuals simply cannot afford that while living paycheck-to-paycheck. It bears repeating: Joe Biden won the Democratic nomination for president because he wasn't Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) and won the general election because he wasn’t Donald Trump. But his handlers thought he had a big mandate to be the next FDR, to radically change the country by expanding government in ways never seen before. Trillions in new spending have already been signed into law. Trillions more were proposed via Build Back Better, with the administration arguing that such spending would reduce inflation and the deficit, which makes zero sense. The president's overall approval is in the 30s for the first time in the RealClearPolitics average. It isn't just GOP voters who oppose him; it’s also most independents. But what should be most alarming to Democrats is the erosion of support among Black voters, who are increasingly feeling buyer's remorse on Biden.
"Something Isn't Right" - 38 Lawmakers Demand Biden Undergo Cognitive Testing As Soon As Possible - In a letter, signed by 37 of his Republican colleagues in Congress, Texas Rep. Dr. Ronny Jackson warns that President Biden's "mental decline and forgetfulness have become more apparent over the past two years," and urges the 79-year-old to take a cognitive aptitude test (just as former President Trump did).“My colleagues and I are again asking President Biden to immediately undergo a formal cognitive screening exam, such as the Montreal Cognitive Assessment,” Jackson said.“As a former physician to three Presidents of the United States, I know what it takes mentally and physically to execute the duties of Commander-in-Chief and Head of State,” said Jackson, who served as a White House doctor to former Presidents George W. Bush, Barack Obama and Donald Trump.Jackson may have a point given this recent appearance..."I don't want to get going because I'd keep you here too long because you know all what I'm about to, what I've said, and you know what I've done, and you know what we're doing, and I know what you're doing." - Joe Biden pic.twitter.com/FypD5BoLIM “Joe Biden has continually proven to me and to the world that something isn’t right. The American people deserve to have absolute confidence in their president’s cognitive ability,” he said.He is not alone in his concerns as a recent Politico poll found that 48% of Americans think the president is not "mentally fit" to do the job.It's not just 'white supremacists' that are worried about the president's cognitive abilities, even Australia's mainstream media is picking up on it...Dr. Jackson appeared on Fox News' 'Hannity' to explain his concerns.. Biden IS NOT cognitively fit to be President. He's destroying our country at every level. BAD things will happen if he stays in power for another 3 years. Something needs to be done FAST. There's too much on the line. pic.twitter.com/FJ5pEgzfaf
GOP Sen Candidate Shoots At Biden, Pelosi Lookalikes In 'Disgusting' Ad - Jim Lamon, a Republican candidate for senator in Arizona, drew widespread condemnation on Thursday for a campaign ad in which he shoots at actors portraying President Joe Biden, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) and incumbent Sen. Mark Kelly (D-Ariz.).Lamon plays a gun-slinging sheriff who blasts weapons out of the Democrats’ hands in the Western movie-style spot. The 70-second commercial dubs Biden “Old Joe,” Pelosi “Crazyface,” and Kelly “Shifty.”“The good people of Arizona have had enough of you. It’s time for a showdown,” Lamon says in the video that will reportedly air on television statewide on Sunday, including during the Super Bowl. Blake Masters and Michael McGuire, two of Lamon’s GOP rivals in the race, led the chorus of criticism.“Absurd and desperate,” Masters told The Arizona Republic. “Fits his campaign.”Real violence and use of deadly force is no laughing matter,” said McGuire. “Violence in America is real and it isn’t funny. This ad shows poor judgment and isn’t reflective of the values of the Second Amendment. This ad will do more to boost Mark Kelly’s fundraising than help Republicans.”
GOP reps call for release of security footage amid allegations of 'reconnaissance tours' - Republicans on the House Administration Committee are asking for the release of Capitol security footage from Jan. 5 last year as a way to answer lingering questions over whether some GOP lawmakers led “reconnaissance tours” shortly before the deadly riot. A letter from Rep. Rodney Davis (R-Ill.), the committee’s ranking member, says that Republicans themselves have reviewed the videos from that time period, finding no footage of large group tours. “We have reviewed the security footage from the Capitol Complex during the relevant period preceding January 6, 2021, and we know it does not support these repeated Democrat accusations about so-called ‘reconnaissance’ tours,” he wrote in a letter obtained by The Hill. The letter seeks to address comments from Democrats alleging that some Republicans gave tours of the Capitol to groups with members who may have later participated in the Jan. 6 riot. Rep. Mikie Sherrill (D-N.J.) led 34 Democratic lawmakers in a letter to Capitol Police last January asking the department to investigate, noting that those who attacked the Capitol had an unusually high level of knowledge about the layout of the building. “Many of the Members who signed this letter, including those of us who have served in the military and are trained to recognize suspicious activity, as well as various members of our staff, witnessed an extremely high number of outside groups in the complex on Tuesday, January 5. This is unusual for several reasons, including the fact that access to the Capitol Complex has been restricted since public tours ended in March of last year due to the pandemic,” they wrote. “The visitors encountered by some of the Members of Congress on this letter appeared to be associated with the rally at the White House the following day. … The presence of these groups within the Capitol Complex was indeed suspicious. Given the events of January 6, the ties between these groups inside the Capitol Complex and the attacks on the Capitol need to be investigated.” Reached for comment, Capitol Police said, “It is our understanding that the matter is still under investigation.”Sherrill has never clarified her comments to reveal which Republican lawmakers she alleges she saw giving tours that day. But other members have made similar comments, including Rep. Sean Patrick Maloney (D-N.Y.) who said another colleague witnessed something similar. “I remain concerned about the tours being conducted in the Capitol complex, which was closed to visitors, prior to January 6th. I asked for an investigation, along with many other Members of Congress, and I’m glad that the bipartisan January 6th Select Committee continues their work. I support these investigations,” Sherrill said in a statement to The Hill.
Document dump turns toxic for Trump -- New York Times reporter Maggie Hagerman teased about Donald Trump — that “White House residence staff periodically found papers had clogged a toilet, leaving staff believing Trump had flushed material he’d ripped into pieces.” That’s one way to keep incriminating materials from the National Archives. In the Trump White House, even the water closets may have been crime scenes. The former president’s Goodfellas-style habit apparently carried overfrom his days as a businessman; he reportedly tore up displeasing papers as casually as one-ply bathroom tissue. In the White House, West Wing staffers mindful of his obligations under the Presidential Records Act often picked off the floor the shredded refuse and taped it, like Humpty Dumpty, back together again. Trump developed adjunct techniques. Burn bags apparently were one. Former Trump aide Omarosa Manigault Newman even claimed in her 2018 book about the Trump White House that she saw him “put a note in his mouth.” She was shocked to see a known germophobe “chewing and swallowing the paper. It must have been something very, very sensitive.”Evidently, there was more than a mouthful of secrets to be swallowed in the head-clogging incidents that Haberman reports. Watergate’s infamous 18-minute gap in Nixon’s White House tapes looks like a training exercise.Trump, of course, calls it all “fake news.” But when you’re denying flushing evidence down the loo, you’re probably not winning the narrative.Americans may remember his 2016 statements about Hillary Clinton: “People who have nothing to hide don’t . . . destroy evidence to keep it from being publicly archived as required under federal law.” He called her conduct “disqualifying.”Oops. Hypocrisy and an inculpatory admission that he knew the law all in one sound bite — not to mention the perfect quote for his 2024 rivals’ TV ads.Will Trump face charges for destroying documents? Per 18 U.S.C. § 2017, anyone who “willfully and unlawfully … destroys … any record … in any public office” can be subject to a fine and up to three years in prison. (For each act!) Oh, and the punishment also includes disqualification “from holding any office under the United States.”But there may be obstacles in charging that crime alone. One reality: Obliterated documents can’t be introduced at trial to prove that they were actually government records, rather than, say, private letters from a porn star.Tough to establish a murder without the body. Even as to documents taped back together, there’s a significant pragmatic risk. How likely are 12 jurors to agree unanimously to convict Trump of what may strike one or more as a petty offense?Better to consolidate any such charges in an indictment alleging acriminal enterprise that encompasses many offenses, including a pattern of obstructing justice. Pardons like the ones Trumpdangled for insurrectionists last month in Texas, to silence potential witnesses against him, would fit well. Under the Supreme Court ruling in Tanner v. United States, 18 USC §371, the crime of defrauding the United States includes “any conspiracy for the purpose of impairing, obstructing or defeating the lawful function of any department of Government.”Last week also brought news of Trump improperly storing boxes of official records at Mar-a-Lago after his term ended. Officials from the National Archives spent months attempting to retrieve the records, which reportedly included papers classified “top secret.” As president, Trump was notoriously lax about protecting the country’s secrets.In this case, the relevant statute is 18 U.S.C. § 1924, which makes it a crime to improperly remove classified materials from sites like the White House.
Prince Andrew settles out of court with Jeffrey Epstein sexual abuse victim - Prince Andrew, the second son of Queen Elizabeth II of the United Kingdom, has settled a lawsuit out of court brought by Virginia Giuffre, who accused him of sexually abusing her when she was 17 years old. The settlement was announced in a Manhattan court filing on Tuesday, while the financial terms of the deal were not disclosed. The prince, who is also known as the Duke of York, did not admit to any of the accusations made against him in Giuffre’s lawsuit. Instead, the court filing says that he “intends to make a substantial donation to Ms. Giuffre’s charity in support of victims’ rights.” The statement also says that Prince Andrew “never intended to malign Ms. Giuffre’s character” and that she has suffered “as an established victim of abuse and as a result of unfair public attacks.” The announced settlement, which will lead to the filing of a stipulated dismissal of the lawsuit, enabled Prince Andrew to avoid being deposed by Giuffre’s attorneys under oath regarding the details of his interactions with the victim at various properties owned by Jeffrey Epstein in 2000–2001. As such, the settlement represents a further coverup of the criminal enterprise run by Jeffrey Epstein and his assistant Ghislaine Maxwell in which underage girls were sexually abused by them and trafficked to their high-society friends and associates around the world for more than two decades. Maxwell was found guilty on December 29 of multiple counts of child sex trafficking in a trial that similarly revealed very little new information about the Epstein sex ring, who participated in it and why it was permitted to operate for so many years. Maxwell is expected to be sentenced in June for up to 65 years in prison for her offenses. In the settlement, Prince Andrew places all the responsibility for the abuse of Giuffre on the now-deceased billionaire sex offender, saying he “regrets his association with Epstein, and commends the bravery of Ms. Giuffre and other survivors.” He goes on to claim that he will support “the fight against the evils of sex trafficking and supporting its victims.”
Sarah Palin’s Libel Claim Against The Times Is Rejected by a Jury - A jury rejected Sarah Palin’s libel suit against The New York Times on Tuesday, a day after the judge said he would dismiss the caseif the jury ruled in her favor because her legal team had failed to provide sufficient evidence that she had been defamed by a 2017 editorial erroneously linking her to a mass shooting. The jury’s verdict, and the judge’s decision, served as a validation of the longstanding legal precedent that considers an occasional mistake by the media a necessary cost of discourse in a free society. And it came as those who want to see journalists pay a steeper legal cost for getting something wrong are pushing the Supreme Court to reconsider the issue. In absolving the The Times of liability, the jury concluded that the newspaper and its former opinion editor, James Bennet, had not acted with the level of recklessness and ill intent required to meet the high constitutional burden for public figures who claim defamation. Ms. Palin is expected to appeal, but appeals courts tend to be deferential to decisions made by juries. Even if she does not succeed, those who want to revisit the current standard of libel, which was set by 1964 case The New York Times Company v. Sullivan, will continue their push to find a case to challenge the established precedent, legal experts said. It requires the votes of four justices for the Supreme Court to take a case. Given critical comments that justices like Clarence Thomas and Neil M. Gorsuch have made about the Sullivan ruling, that may be easier to do if the court is presented with the right case than legal scholars would have expected just a short time ago.
Appeal in Sarah Palin’s Libel Loss Could Set up Supreme Court Test of Decades-Old Media Freedom Rule --To the numerous challenges facing the U.S. media in recent years, add a libel case against The New York Times – lost by Sarah Palin, but now seemingly headed to appeal and perhaps on to the highest court in the land.On Feb. 15, 2022, a jury rejected Palin’s claim. As it happened, its verdict was more or less moot. The presiding judge had already said he would dismiss the case on the grounds that the former Alaska governor’s legal team had failed to reach the bar for proving she had been defamed. A Times editor admitted a mistake in suggesting in a 2017 opinion piece that there was a link between Palin’s rhetoric and a mass shooting. But under the so-called Sullivan standard – a rule in place for nearly 60 years that makes it difficult for public figures to successfully sue for defamation – neither the jury nor the judge considered the error significant enough for Palin to win her case.But in reaching his decision in the Palin case, the federal judge suggested that it was likely not to be the end of the matter – indeed, an appeal is expected. And that has defenders of a free press worried. Legal scholars note that recent opinions by Supreme Court Justices Clarence Thomas and Neil Gorsuch favor overturning the Sullivan standard – a move that would take away a key protection for the press against libel suits by vindictive public officials. Before 1964’s Sullivan standard, the libel landscape in the U.S. consisted of a patchwork of state laws that made it easy for political figures to selectively persecute newspapers and public speakers who espoused opposing or unpopular views.For example in 1949, John Henry McCray, a Black editor from South Carolina, served two months on a chain gang after being charged with criminal libel for writing a story about a racially charged execution. White publications reporting the same story were not charged.Similarly, in a 1955 libel case, Dr. Von Mizell, a Black surgeon and NAACP official, was ordered to pay a US$15,000 fine for writing in opposition to a Florida state legislator’s idea of abolishing public schools instead of integrating them.Then came the Sullivan case. It centered around several tiny mistakes in a civil rights advertisement carried by The New York Times. L.B. Sullivan, a public official not even named in the advertisement, sued for defamation, and the case went from Alabama to the U.S. Supreme Court.In setting the Sullivan standard in 1964, the Supreme Court said in effect that it ought to be difficult for any official at the federal or the state level to prove that a falsehood was libelous enough – and personally damaging enough – to surmount First Amendment protections.The court said a public official could not win a libel lawsuit by citing minor mistakes, technical inaccuracies or even outright negligence. Instead, under the Sullivan standard, a public official had to prove that there was “actual malice,” which means that a critic knowingly published something false or was in reckless disregard of the truth.
Facebook sued over facial scans -Facebook captured facial scans of users to boost its business, according to a lawsuit filed by Texas’ attorney general today. The case adds onto a growing pile of legal challenges facing Facebook and its newly formed parent company Meta.Texas is suing Facebook over allegations that the social media giant violated Texans’ privacy through the company’s previous use of facial recognition technology, according to a complaint filed Monday. “Facebook will no longer take advantage of people and their children with the intent to turn a profit at the expense of one’s safety and well-being,” Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton (R) said in a statement. “This is yet another example of Big Tech’s deceitful business practices and it must stop. I will continue to fight for Texans’ privacy and security.”The lawsuit alleges Facebook, now under the parent company Meta, captured biometric data of Texans for commercial purposes without their informed consent and failed to destroy collected identifiers within a reasonable time.The lawsuit also alleges that Facebook violated the privacy of people who were not even users on the platform by collecting biometric identifiers from photos and videos “innocently uploaded by friends and family who did use Facebook.” “There was no way for such non-users to know of or contest this exploitation,” the complaint states. The lawsuit was first reported by The Wall Street Journal. A person familiar with the matter told the Journal the lawsuit seeks civil penalties in the hundreds of billions of dollars.Read more here.
More Home Surveillance Coming Your Way, Courtesy Bosch and the Internet of Things by Yves Smith - Zach Campbell and Chris Jones have an important new story up at the Intercept, which if the Twitterverse reaction is any guide, hasn’t gotten remotely the attention it warrants. Perhaps it is because the Twitterati, which has a heavy representation of journalists, also skews strongly towards those who favor convenience over privacy.The newest example of further intrusion into homes, which were once fancied as castles, as in well protected, is home surveillance cameras in all sorts of Internet of Things appliances, particularly kitchen items. Sadly, the latest perp is Bosch, which is not only good at upscale equipment, but is also good at cameras, so the refusniks (as in ones who are not keen about the risk of being snooped upon if you visit a friend at home for a coffee or dinner) can’t hide behind the hope that Bosch won’t be very good at this new mission.Here is the unholy alliance: Bosch, the maker of cameras and video analytics, has is surveillance cameras connect to its apps store, Azena, which sells various video analytics tools. Bosch undertakes only basic checks of app security and execution. But a big cause for concern with the Bosch-funded exercise, known as Azena, is that it managing to make Google look like a paragon of virtue. Bosch aspires to Google-level dominance of spy cameras….while being less attentive to security. From the Intercept: Apps currently available in the Azena store offer ethnicity detection, gender recognition, face recognition, emotion analysis, and suspicious behavior detection, among other things, despite well-documented concerns about the discriminatory and intrusive nature of such technologies. Azena doesn’t produce cameras or develop video analytics tools. Instead, it provides a platform for companies and individual developers to distribute their own applications and takes a cut of the sales — much like the Apple and Google app stores, but for surveillance software. Google’s app store is the direct inspiration for Azena: Within just a few years of releasing the Android operating system, Schaper noted, Google had revolutionized how smartphones were used and achieved domination over the market. With their new surveillance app store, Azena and Bosch hope to do the same. Shaper anticipates that the spy camera market will soon have only a very few operating systems and points to signs that Bosch/Azena will be one of the winners, such has having over 100 apps now and launching “the first face mask detection app within two weeks of the COVID-19 pandemic beginning.” Here’s where it gets messy: The more basic applications involve identifying people, objects, barriers like doors or fences, and locations, then sending an alarm when certain conditions apply: someone passing an object to another person, leaving a bag on a train platform, or entering a restricted area. It’s the second category — applications that allegedly detect emotions, potential aggression, suspicious behavior, or criminality — that Galdon Clavell said can be impossible to do accurately and is often based on junk science. “Identifying a person in a space where they shouldn’t be — that works. But that’s very low-tech.” With the more advanced applications, she said, developers often promise more than they deliver: “From what I’ve seen, it basically doesn’t work.” “When you move from protecting closed-off areas to actually doing movement detection and wanting to derive behavior or suspicion from how you move or what you do,” Galdon Clavell said, “then you enter a really problematic area. Because what constitutes normal behavior?”
Arbitration Antics: Warren, Porter, Press Regulator to Explain Yet Another Way Wells Fargo Found to Game the System - Jerri-lynn Scofield - 1d ago - Last week, Senator Elizebeth Warren and Representative Katie Porter, sent a withering letter to Robert Cook, president and CEO of Financial Industry Regulatory Authority, Inc. (FINRA), the self regulator that oversees the mandatory arbitration system for settling disputes between brokers and their customers. The letter was sparked by a January ruling by Belinda Edwads, a superior court judge in Fulton County, Georgia.The issue: not content with relying on the systemic bias of mandatory arbitration towards defendants – usually corporations – instead of plaintiffs – you and me – FINRA apparently allowed Well Fargo to strike certain names off the putatively neutral list from which arbitrators are chosen. Basically, the regulator allowed Well Fargo to select who would hear claims against it – a direct way for Wells Fargo to game the system. Over to Warren and Porter:We are writing regarding a highly disturbing report earlier this week indicating that Wells Fargo rigged the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority (FINRA) arbitration system in a case involving a customer’s claim against the bank’s mishandling of his investments by “improperly manipulat[ing] a list of arbitrators who could decide on the customer’sclaim—with the permission of” FINRA.According to the findings of Superior Court Judge Belinda Edwards, “FINRA for years has used a computer system to randomly generate a neutral list of potential arbitrators from which the parties agree on three to decide the case. But in this case, multiple names were removed from the list at the request of Wells Fargo’s lawyer and with the permission of Finra.” Judge Edwards wrote that, “Permitting one lawyer to secretly red line the neutral list makes the list anything but neutral, and calls into question the entire fairness of the arbitral forum.”We have a long public record of concerns about the wide-ranging and long-lasting pattern of illegal and abusive behavior by Wells Fargo.4 Similarly, we have long had concerns about FINRA’s ability to effectively enforce rules against fraudulent and abusive behavior by brokers and dealers. And we have for years attempted to address the problems for consumers and workers caused by forced arbitration processes that limit their rights.6 This latest report brings all three problems into focus: it reveals troubling new allegations about the atrocious behavior of Wells Fargo, the inability of FINRA to effectively police the financial system, and the unfairness of the arbitration process [citations omitted].Ouch! Now, as the letter incidtates, Warren has hammered FINRA before. So, the letter later quoted back to Cook FINRA’s previous paean to the putative fairness of its arbitration system. From the Warren/Porter letter: In response to that letter, you made a series of assertions about the fairness of your arbitration system. You wrote that: FINRA’s primary role in the arbitration process is to administer cases brought to the forum in a neutral, efficient and fair manner. In its capacity as a neutral administrator of the forum, FINRA does not have any input into the outcome of arbitrations. Investors have the option to have their case decided exclusively by public arbitrators, who have no ties to the securities industry. To provide transparency about awards rendered in the forum, FINRA makes all awards publicly available and publishes detailed arbitration statistics on its website, including the number of cases filed and their respective outcomes. FINRA recognizes the importance of providing a diverse pool of arbitrators from which parties can choose. FINRA has embarked on an aggressive campaign to recruit new arbitrators with a particular focus on adding arbitrators from diverse backgrounds […] FINRA staff review arbitration claims and disclosures reporting arbitration awards or settlements to determine whether the issues raised in the arbitration or settlement require a further regulatory review or response [citations omitted]. Warren and Porter didn’t content themselves with a simple scolding. Instead, they laid out a series of questions to which Cook must respond before February 23:
FBI Raids and Subpoenas Have Been Occurring on Wall Street. What’s Up? -- Pam Martens --Yesterday, the Wall Street Journal dropped the bombshell that the Justice Department has been conducting raids on prominent short-sellers, including Muddy Waters’ Carson Block and Andrew Left of Citron Research. The Journal reported that the Justice Department “has seized hardware, trading records and private communications….” Reuters reported yesterday that the Justice Department’s probe is “part of a wide-ranging investigation into short-sellers and hedge funds focused on suspected coordinated manipulative trading, according to two people familiar with the matter.” Reuters also reported that “dozens” of subpoenas have been issued to various firms since early last year. Of particular interest to Wall Street On Parade was a report on December 10 by Reuters which indicated that trading activity in the shares of GSX Techedu was in the cross hairs of the Justice Department because both Muddy Waters and Citron Research had circulated negative research on the company.If GSX Techedu, a Chinese online tutoring firm, is being probed, we can assure you that more than short-sellers need to be under investigation by the Justice Department. (The company has changed its name to Gaotu Techedu.)GSX Techedu was one of the stocks that had been purchased in huge quantities by Archegos Capital Management before Archegos blew itself up in March of last year. Archegos was using tricked-up derivative contracts provided by major Wall Street firms that allowed it to hide its ownership interests in various stocks and obtain massive amounts of margin loans provided by the same Wall Street firms. (See our report: Archegos: Wall Street Was Effectively Giving 85 Percent Margin Loans on Concentrated Stock Positions – Thwarting the Fed’s Reg T and Its Own Margin Rules.)When we checked 13F filings with the SEC that were dated prior to the Archegos blowup to find out who might have been fronting for Archegos’ position in GSX Techedu, we found the following: Goldman Sachs held over 20 million shares of GSX Techedu with a put option on just 3.45 million shares; Morgan Stanley held over 14 million shares; UBS held more than 11 million shares; Bank of America held more than 5.8 million shares; Citigroup, over 4.8 million shares; and JPMorgan Chase, over 4 million shares.The market value for all six megabanks’ holdings in GSX Techedu was more than $3 billion as of December 31, 2020.What was completely insane about these sophisticated Wall Street banks holding such a sizeable position in GSX Techedu as of December 31, 2020 was that on April 14, 2020 Citron Research had published a 34-page report calling the company “The Most Blatant Chinese Stock Fraud since 2011.” On May 18, 2020 Muddy Waters had released a 25-page detailed report on GSX Techedu which sized up the company as follows:“We are short GSX because we conclude that it is a near-total fraud.“We conclude that at least ~70% of its users are fake, and we think it’s quite likely that at least ~80% of its users are fake.”Both reports offered compelling evidence for their charges of fraud. But after the detailed reports of a fraudulent operation were published, instead of the share price collapsing, it actually soared from about $30 a share to over $100. That doesn’t sound like manipulation by short-sellers who should be under investigation. The share price of GSX Techedu did crash when Archegos blew up in late March 2021, because Wall Street firms had to liquidate all of the stock positions they had leveraged up on behalf of Archegos. Under its new name, Gaotu Techedu, the company’s share price closed at $2.47 yesterday. It has traded in a range of $1.55 to $2.50 since December.
Crypto lending firm BlockFi to pay $100 mln to settle U.S. SEC, state charges (Reuters) - A subsidiary of crypto company BlockFi Inc has agreed to pay $100 million to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and 32 states to settle charges in connection with a retail crypto lending product the New Jersey company offered to nearly 600,000 investors, the SEC said on Monday. The penalty includes $50 million to the state regulators and $50 million to the SEC, the largest ever fine the federal securities watchdog has levied on an issuer of crypto asset securities, it said. BlockFi Lending LLC, the subsidiary, broke the rules by offering an interest-bearing lending product without registering with the SEC, the agency said. BlockFi, which neither admitted nor denied the SEC's findings, has agreed to comply by offering an alternative product that will be registered with the SEC. The charges are lower than they might have been due to BlockFi's willingness to cooperate, the SEC said. The charges come as U.S. regulators, worried about investor protections and systemic risks, are cracking down on the booming crypto industry by forcing companies in the space to comply with existing U.S. securities laws. The SEC has heightened its scrutiny of crypto exchanges and lenders under Chair Gary Gensler, who has said wants to bring the digital asset sector within the existing regulatory framework. Crypto asset companies, meanwhile, say the existing rules are inappropriate. From March 2019 to present, the firm offered and sold so-called BlockFi Interest Accounts, or BIAs, that allowed investors to lend crypto assets to BlockFi in exchange for a promise to provide a variable monthly interest payment, the SEC said. The offering was a violation of securities laws because the company failed to register it with the SEC. BlockFi also broke rules by failing to register as an investment firm, the SEC said. The firm also understated the risks associated with its lending activities by making false or misleading statements for more than two years that they were typically over-collaterized when the majority were not, the SEC said. BlockFi will no longer offer the product to new investors in the United States. It will continue to service existing accounts but will not allow customers to add to those investments. It will comply with laws governing investment companies and will register a new product called a BlockFi yield.
Colorado will accept crypto for payment of state taxes by the summer, with drivers' and hunting licenses to follow, Gov. Polis says - People in Colorado will be able to pay their state taxes in cryptocurrency by the middle of this year, the US state's governor has revealed.Gov. Jared Polis laid out the timing of the move, a longtime ambition of the state, in an interview with CNBC Tuesday. "We expect by this summer to accept crypto for all of our state tax-related purposes," he said on "Crypto World"."And then we plan to roll that out across all state government for things — could be as simple as a driver's license or hunting license," he added.Colorado is one of 20 or so US states that are considering crypto legislation of some kind, as crypto adoption continues to grow across the US. About 16% of Americans have invested in digital assets, according to a Pew Research report in November. Polis is a longtime proponent of crypto assets — he has accepted bitcoin donations to his political campaign — and he has spearheaded a push to position Colorado the center for blockchain innovation in the US. He first revealed the state's plan to accept crypto in payment for taxes in May last year.
Meet the ‘Crocodile of Wall Street’ rapper accused of laundering billions of dollars in crypto -- It took Netflix three days to order a documentary about her, but a woman’s social media accounts have been telling a wild story for years.Heather Morgan, 31, is half of a husband-and-wife duo charged last week with conspiring to launder 119,754 bitcoin, a cache worth about $4.5 billion, prompting the streaming service to enlist a “Tiger King” executive producer to direct an upcoming series about them. Morgan and Ilya “Dutch” Lichtenstein, 34, are accused of trying to launder the cryptocurrency stolen after a hacker breached the exchange Bitfinex in 2016 and initiated more than 2,000 unauthorized transactions. Prosecutors said the bitcoin was sent to a digital wallet controlled by Lichtenstein.Morgan and Lichtenstein are in custody pending a hearing scheduled for this week. Their attorney did not respond to requests for comment for this story.The investigation includes the largest single seizure of funds in Justice Department history, but what has drawn the most online attention is Morgan’s two somewhat-distinct personas: one as a successful, go-getting tech entrepreneur and the other as the self-proclaimed “Crocodile of Wall Street” rapping about investing in meme stocks, dealing with the coronavirus pandemic and getting high in a cemetery.Deputy Attorney General Lisa Monaco announced the “largest seizure of cryptocurrency ever” on Feb. 8, charging a New York couple with laundering the proceeds. (Reuters)Lichtenstein has a lower online profile than his wife; he described himself as a “tech entrepreneur, explorer, and occasional magician” in a 2018 blog post. According to court documents, the dual Russian and American citizen grew up in Glenview, Ill., a suburb of Chicago. He studied at the University of Wisconsin-Madison and co-founded MixRank, a sales firm initially funded by Y Combinator and investors including Mark Cuban, according to the company’s website. Lichtenstein’s public missives include the occasional tech tweets, but Morgan has a prolific social media presence, branding herself as a surrealist rapper who has “more pizzazz” than Genghis Khan in posts that coexist with her more staid image as a business influencer and marketing expert.
How a Young Couple Failed to Launder Billions of Dollars in Stolen Bitcoin - August, 2016, a hacker stole 119,754 bitcoin from a cryptocurrency exchange called Bitfinex. On Tuesday, in Manhattan, a young married couple, Ilya Lichtenstein and Heather Morgan, appeared in federal court, charged with attempting to launder the proceeds of that crime. When the exchange was hacked, the stolen bitcoin was worth about seventy-one million dollars. Today, its value is more than five billion dollars. Shortly before their arrest, one could argue that—on paper, at least—Lichtenstein and Morgan were richer than Peter Thiel, who founded PayPal.Lichtenstein is a thirty-four-year-old with dual Russian-American citizenship, who describes himself on Medium as a “tech entrepreneur, explorer, and occasional magician.” He goes by “Dutch.” His Twitter feed (@unrealdutch) is a stream of aloof commentary on cryptocurrency, Web 3.0, and non-fungible tokens. On New Year’s Eve, he retweeted Edward Snowden’s picture of fireworks over the Kremlin. Morgan, who is thirty-one, married Lichtenstein last year. Among other pursuits, she is a journalist. In her biography for Forbes, which she wrote for until last year, Morgan describes herself as “an international economist, serial entrepreneur, and investor” and “an expert in persuasion, social engineering, and game theory.” “When she’s not reverse-engineering black markets to think of better ways to combat fraud and cybercrime,” her bio reads, “she enjoys rapping and designing streetwear fashion.”Morgan really does seem to enjoy rapping. She spits bars as Razzlekhan, and styles herself the “Crocodile of Wall Street.” The keystone of Razzlekhan’s œuvre is a track called “Versace Bedouin,” a paean to grind culture and financial speculation, in which Morgan nods to her multi-hyphenate career. (“I’m many things: a rapper, an economist, a journalist, a writer, a C.E.O., and a dirty, dirty, dirty, dirty ho.”) In the video for “Versace Bedouin,” Morgan wears a gold lamé jacket and a baseball cap bearing the slogan “ØFCKS.” It was filmed on Wall Street itself, which is also where the couple lives, in a rented two-bed condominium.Morgan and Lichtenstein were charged last week with conspiring to launder money and conspiring to defraud the United States. Most subsequent media coverage of the case has naturally focussed on their colorful online personae. (I am not immune. In my house, “Versace Bedouin” has been on repeat.) But the details of the case are equally intriguing, because they gesture at the potential and pitfalls of digital currency for criminal activity. The case against Morgan and Lichtenstein, as detailed in the affidavit, describes a big crime followed by a series of frustrations. After the hack of Bitfinex, in 2016, the stolen bitcoin was transferred to an outside wallet. The government has not said that Lichtenstein and Morgan hacked the exchange; they are charged only with laundering the proceeds of the hack. But it appears that the couple never even tried to launder most of the stolen coins—94,636 bitcoin, or about eighty per cent of the total loot, never left the first wallet. The reason? Laundering digital currency is hard. And the level of difficulty rises as the sums grow larger.
A Crucial Clue in the $4.5 Billion Bitcoin Heist: A $500 Walmart Gift Card – WSJ - Federal investigators spent years hunting for clues in the 2016 hacking of the Bitfinex cryptocurrency exchange, when thieves stole bitcoin now worth $4.5 billion. In the end, what helped lead them to two suspects was something much more quotidian: a $500 Walmart gift card. That card and more than a dozen others like it, including for Uber, Hotels.com and PlayStation, were linked to emails and cloud service providers belonging to a young Manhattan couple, Ilya “Dutch” Lichtenstein and Heather R. Morgan, according to a criminal complaint. Authorities arrested the couple after seizing $3.6 billion worth of bitcoin allegedly in their control—the Justice Department’s largest financial seizure ever. New details have since emerged about the investigation, in particular how it took advantage of not only advanced forensic tools but also the growing push to rein in crypto crime, including by the industry itself. The discoveries would have been less likely to happen around the time of the hack, when bitcoin was far outside the mainstream of the financial world. Cryptocurrency has long been a preferred option for criminals big and small, including ransomware operators, drug traffickers and street gangs due to its perceived anonymity and capacity for frictionless international transfers. Despite its reputation as hard to trace, analysts say it is sometimes easier to track than hard currencies. Every transaction is public, leaving a permanent trail. The trick is tying that money to real people. Mr. Lichtenstein, 34, and Ms. Morgan, 31, were charged with conspiring to launder money and defraud the federal government. The most serious count carries a maximum sentence of 20 years in prison. Federal prosecutors haven’t alleged that Mr. Lichtenstein and Ms. Morgan committed the hack. Their lawyers didn’t respond to requests for comment. In a memo filed to court, their lawyers said, “The money laundering accusations in the Government’s complaint are predicated on a series of circumstantial inferences and assumptions drawn from a complex web of convoluted blockchain and cryptocurrency tracing assertions.” At a hearing on Monday, a judge ordered Mr. Lichtenstein to be held in jail but allowed Ms. Morgan to be released to home incarceration on a $3 million bond package while they await trial The pair, who have been together for seven years, their lawyers said, both worked in technology. Mr. Lichtenstein was an introvert who preferred coding and making computer circuit boards over socializing, friends of the couple said. His family emigrated to the U.S. from Russia when he was 6 years old to avoid religious persecution, his lawyers said.Ms. Morgan, from Northern California, was much more outgoing. She wrote columns for Forbes where she described herself as an expert dedicated to fighting fraud and cybercrime. “When she’s not reverse-engineering black markets to think of better ways to combat fraud and cybercrime, she enjoys rapping and designing streetwear fashion,” according to her Forbes.com bio. Her rap lyrics include: “spear phish your password/all your funds transferred.”
Crypto firms including Coinbase, Gemini work together to meet money laundering rule -- Coinbase Global, Gemini Trust and Robinhood Markets are among firms helping to build a platform to comply with a U.S. money laundering rule as crypto and financial technology companies seek to satisfy existing requirements and head off stricter oversight. A group of 18 companies is setting up the platform to help meet conditions of the U.S. Treasury Department’s “travel rule,” which requires financial firms to pass on information including customer names, account numbers and transaction dates of fund transfers. The coalition has held talks with U.S. and global regulators about their plan, said Elena Hughes, chief compliance officer of the crypto platform Gemini. “We believe that the solution will allow for top-tier compliance for the travel rule, and we are looking to get buy-in from our regulatory authorities,” Hughes said in an interview.
Crypto assets threaten financial stability, top regulator warns -Global financial regulators said digital assets could soon threaten global financial stability due to their scale, structural vulnerabilities and increasing interconnectedness with the traditional financial system.Areas of concern include the use of leverage, technological fragilities and liquidity shortages, according to a report Wednesday by the Financial Stability Board. The report also noted concerns such as low levels of investor and consumer understanding of crypto assets, plus risks of money laundering, cyber crime and ransomware. The rapid evolution and international nature of such assets means authorities should consider “timely and preemptive evaluation of possible policy responses,” the report said. That includes prioritizing cross-border and cross-sectoral cooperation, including speedier information sharing in order to keep pace with crypto-asset developments.
Senate Banking head blasts Super Bowl crypto ads for lack of transparency - Crypto was the breakout star of this year’s Super Bowl with attention-grabbing ads from companies, such as Coinbase Global, FTX Trading and Crypto.com. But not everyone was a fan. Senate Banking Chairman Sherrod Brown at a hearing Tuesday condemned the promotions, saying they failed to warn investors of the potential risks of putting money into the white-hot asset class. “The ads left a few things out,” he said. The companies didn’t mention that investors could “lose big” as a result of wide price swings, that consumers may fall victim to fraud or theft, or that the market currently isn’t subject to the same level of regulatory oversight as other areas, said Brown, a Democratic senator from Ohio.
FBI to form new cryptocurrency unit - The FBI is forming a new team dedicated to cryptocurrency, according to the Department of Justice (DOJ). The new team will work closely with the National Cryptocurrency Enforcement Team, the DOJ announced Thursday. Prosecutor Eun Young Choi, who has a background in cyber-related crimes, will serve as the National Cryptocurrency Enforcement Team’s first director. “The department has been at the forefront of investigating and prosecuting crimes involving digital currencies since their inception,” Choi said in a statement. “The NCET will play a pivotal role in ensuring that as the technology surrounding digital assets grows and evolves, the department in turn accelerates and expands its efforts to combat their illicit abuse by criminals of all kinds. I am excited to lead the NCET’s incredible and talented team of attorneys, and to get to work on this important priority for the department." The cryptocurrency enforcement team will focus on challenges posed by the criminal misuse of cryptocurrencies and digital assets. The team will also be comprised of attorneys from across the department including prosecutors with backgrounds in cryptocurrency, cybercrime, money laundering and forfeiture. The team will work in collaboration with others across the department, including the new FBI team dedicated to cryptocurrency.
Banks get protesters’ names as Canada financial squeeze unfolds - Canada’s national police service is sending to banks the names of people involved in protests that have paralyzed the nation’s capital, a first concrete step in the financial crackdown on demonstrators. The Canadian Bankers Association confirmed the Royal Canadian Mounted Police has provided a list to the banks. The banks are still seeking clarity from law enforcement on how to handle the alleged protesters’ accounts, according to people familiar with the matter. But Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland said some accounts have already been frozen. Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s government invoked an emergency law on Monday to try to end protests that have occupied the streets of Ottawa for nearly three weeks and resulted in the closing of border crossings.
Wall Street is back in the office while its regulators stay home -While Wall Street banks press employees to return to the office this month, its regulators in Washington are largely sticking with a flexible approach to remote work. The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, which has a staff of about 4,500, pushed back until June 6 its earliest date for requiring employees to return, according to a person familiar with the plans. The Federal Reserve in Washington remains mostly in a remote posture, and at the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency, no final decision has been made on when workers will be called back on a mandatory basis. At other agencies across the government, employees are largely still working from home. Meanwhile, financial giants from Citigroup to Goldman Sachs Group have pressed to bring back staff this month after a nationwide surge in coronavirus cases at the end of last year and in the early weeks of this year. The difference between the two largely reflects the nature of their work, concentration of unionized workers and flexible-work cultures even before the pandemic hit.
Revolt of the Super-Employees - A wave of disgruntlement has been sweeping across our country’s paragons of success. Not those masters of the universe at the absolute top of the hierarchy, to be clear—most of whom have invested a tremendous amount of capital and ingenuity in keeping themselves out of the public eye. On the whole, they are content to leave well enough alone, sated with their sky-high stock market returns and the whack-a-mole decapitation of any serious challenges to the political-economic order. But just one rung down the ladder, a sense of victimization and resentment has begun to grip the American elite. Prompted by the pandemic-era elimination of a Seamless meal-expensing benefit, junior analysts at Goldman Sachs are,according to New York magazine, in full “revolt.” Wealthy award-winning journalists are fleeing their publications for the Wild West of Substack, convinced that editing is a form of censorship. Most recently, thirty-eight big-name Harvard faculty signed an open letter decrying the unfair treatment of star anthropologist John Comaroff at the hands of the university administrators who issued a slap-on-the-wrist sanction against him for sexual harassment in January. (Thirty-five of them eventually issued a non-apology “retraction.”) The Ivy League named-chair professoriate, not usually known for stand-taking, finally found its conscience roused by the prospect of bureaucratic circumscription of its “pedagogical” prerogatives. Outside the Acela Corridor, the liege lords of middle-American suburbia have also embraced a put-upon affect. This was the demographic from which the Capitol rioters of January 6, 2021, were disproportionately drawn. A team of University of Chicago researchers foundthat the mob determined to “take America back” was stuffed with “CEOs, shop owners, doctors, lawyers, IT specialists, and accountants.” They were “middle-class and middle-aged.” Forty percent of those arrested and charged worked in white-collar jobs or owned a business; they were denizens of the sort of respectable zip codes in which American dreamers have traditionally aspired to own property. Now, the fearsome specter of Democrats winning elections has apparently placed quiet bourgeois contentment out of reach for them.These are the little bosses, the super-employees—from Harvard Yard to Waukesha County. They have their Priuses and F-250s, their healthy portfolios, their enviable school districts. They were the winners of the New Economy of the turn of the twenty-first century. The reappearance of Gilded-Age levels of income and wealth inequality was supposed to be the price we paid to keep them happy: the stars and entrepreneurs on whom innovation and prosperity allegedly depended. And for a while they were happy. But now the persistence of the bigger bosses has begun to grate, especially since it allows subordinates to go over the little bosses’ heads with their complaints. As Jedi Master Qui-Gon Jinn observes in Star Wars Episode I: The Phantom Menace, there’s always a bigger fish.
SEC Investigating Possible Block Trading Abuses at Morgan Stanley, Goldman, Other Big Players by Yves Smith -To be clear, the SEC waking up and poking its nose into possible block trading abuses at major Wall Street firms is no where near as important, in terms of the potential to produce significant changes, than its proposed rule changes to greatly increase transparency in private equity.However, this development is significant for a different reason: it demonstrates new chairman Gary Gensler’s seriousness in getting the agency out of the business of merely issuing parking tickets, um, going after insider trading.Pursuing potential block trading cheating may not be the sexiest pursuit, but it’s the sort of basic market integrity policing that a badly cowed SEC has neglected for many years. A big part of an SEC institutional turnaround is letting staff know that the agency is in the business of regulating, not accommodating.The Financial Times account points out that the investigation started under the Trump Administration, and looked to be going not much of anywhere until recently:A slow-burning regulatory probe of big share sales on Wall Street has kicked up a notch as watchdogs examine whether banks and hedge fund traders are improperly profiting at the expense of institutional sellers and retail traders.The US Securities and Exchange Commission first started asking banks with large equity trading arms about “block trades” during the Trump administration, according to two people with direct knowledge of the probe.Since then, Morgan Stanley, which is a leading provider of block trade services, has received multiple requests for information. The regulator has also contacted other market participants including hedge funds that trade equities.The SEC probe is looking at whether other traders are getting advance word of these large sales — either directly from the banks or in some other way — and improperly profiting by shorting the shares in expectation that prices will fall.No enforcement action is imminent, and it not clear that any will result, the people said…Under chair Gary Gensler, the SEC is making a push to prevent large traders from unfairly benefiting from information that is not available to ordinary investors. While much of this comes in the form of new disclosure proposals, the SEC enforcement arm is also part of the drive.The Wall Street Journal said the Department of Justice had saddled up, meaning the SEC is looking into criminal referrals. That alone should focus some minds:The Securities and Exchange Commission sent subpoenas to firms including Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs Group Inc. as well as several hedge funds, asking for trading records and information about the investors’ communications with bankers, some of the people said. The Justice Department also is investigating the matter, some of the people said.Morgan Stanley has been an early focus of the probe, said people familiar with the matter. The issuance of subpoenas doesn’t mean charges will be brought against any of the firms or individuals whose activities are being scrutinized…Investigators are looking at whether bankers improperly alerted favored clients to the sales before they were publicly disclosed and whether the funds benefited from the information—for example by shorting the shares in question. (In a short sale, an investor sells borrowed stock in hopes of buying it back at a lower price later and pocketing the difference.)Shares of companies selling stock often fall because of an increase in supply hitting the market—and they do so frequently in the hours before a big block is sold, a phenomenon that has long raised questions on Wall Street.Some of the funds that received subpoenas act as “liquidity providers” to Wall Street firms, according to some of the people, standing by to purchase large amounts of stock or other securities, including those that have few interested buyers.The rules governing when and how Wall Street firms can tell clients about coming block trades are murky. In some cases, there are questions around whether divulging certain information or acting on it is improper or illegal, lawyers say.The Financial Times article oddly described block trading as a growing business, which might give non-financial readers the mistaken impression that it’s a new business. It isn’t. Block trading was well established back when I was at Goldman in the early 1980s. It was also understood then to be an exercise in loss minimization. Block trading was an accommodation to large traders.
Brutal Stock Deterioration: 46 Percent of Nasdaq Stocks Are More than 50 Percent Below their 52-Week High By Pam Martens -The stock market indices that get all the headlines have failed to capture the brutal deterioration that has been occurring for months among the individual stock components of those indices.In early February, Bank of America reported that 46 percent of Nasdaq’s component companies were more than 50 percent below their 52-week highs. And the deterioration in breadth began long before February.On December 28, 2021, Wall Street On Parade ran this headline: A Tale of Two Markets: S&P 500 Notches Its 69th Record Close as the Bottom Falls Out of the Nasdaq. We noted in the article that “On December 3 there were 585 new 52-week lows on the Nasdaq stock market versus 12 new 52-week highs. To look at it another way, 48.75 times more stocks were setting new 52-week lows than were reaching new 52-week highs. That doesn’t sound like the definition of a bull market to us.”A chart published by Liz Ann Sonders, Chief Investment Strategist for Charles Schwab & Co., on January 31 of this year further underscored the deterioration occurring below the headline index numbers. Sonders reported that the average stock decline in the Russell 3000 was a drop of 32 percent from its 52-week highs. Equally alarming, companies in the 10th decile within the Russell 3000 had experienced an average decline of nearly 70 percent from their 52-week high.Part of the problem stems from the low-quality of companies that former SEC Chairman Jay Clayton allowed to be brought to market in IPOs by Wall Street. See our report: SEC Chair Jay Clayton Left Markets in the Biggest Mess Since 1929.The deterioration in the market has picked up steam as inflation has proven itself to be anything but “transitory” and as the stock market prices in the possibility of more rate hikes from the Fed this year than initially expected.
Margin Debt: Down 8.8% in January - The New York Stock Exchange previously published end-of-month data for margin debt on the NYX data website, including historical data going back to 1959. Because of NYSE's suspension of publication, we have turned to FINRA to continue our analysis. The figures differ in their inclusion of firms. For data through January 2010, debit balances were derived by adding NYSE debit balances in margin accounts to FINRA debit balances in customers' cash and margin accounts and credit balances were derived by adding NYSE free credit balances in cash and margin accounts to FINRA free and other credit balances in customers' securities accounts. For data after January 2010, "As of February 2010, data are collected pursuant to FINRA Rule 4521 and are aggregated across all member firms, regardless of whether the firm was designated to NASD or the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) before the consolidation of NASD and the member firm regulation operations of NYSE Regulation in July 2007 that created FINRA," (FINRA statistics definition, FINRA website). As a result of this change, the debt data is higher than the NYSE data.Let's examine the numbers and study the relationship between margin debt and the market, using the S&P 500 as the surrogate for the latter. The first chart shows the two series in real terms — adjusted for inflation to today's dollar using the Consumer Price Index as the deflator. At the 1997 start date, we were well into the Boomer Bull Market that began in 1982 and approaching the start of the Tech Bubble that shaped investor sentiment during the second half of the decade. The astonishing surge in leverage in late 1999 peaked in March 2000, the same month that the S&P 500 hit its all-time daily high, although the highest monthly close for that year was five months later in August. A similar surge began in 2006, peaking in July 2007, three months before the market peak. Debt hit a trough in February 2009, a month before the March market bottom. It then began another major cycle of increases. FINRA has released new data for margin debt, now available through January. The latest debt level is down 8.8% month-over-month.
CFPB issues warning on use of prepaid cards to pay government benefits - The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau warned financial services companies Tuesday about a longstanding prohibition on using prepaid debit cards as the sole method for distributing government benefits. Companies that get hired by government agencies to distribute payments to consumers may be extracting illegal fees that would be considered an abuse of their exclusive contracts, the agency said. In a 10-page compliance bulletin,, the CFPB described how beneficiaries of certain state and federal benefits programs are entitled to protections and disclosures under Regulation E, which implements the Electronic Fund Transfer Act. The bulletin also included clarifications about the obligations of banks and prepaid card companies.
Small businesses still face $28 billion of unforgiven PPP loans -- Almost 350,000 loans made to small businesses in 2020 during the COVID-19 pandemic haven’t been forgiven, according to a Bloomberg News analysis of Paycheck Protection Program data, and most of them are for less than $25,000. That lingering debt — about $28 billion, the analysis shows — is creating a burden for the smallest businesses, including many run by minority entrepreneurs, say advocacy groups, community leaders and business owners. Many are struggling with the process of seeking forgiveness under terms of the loan program that distributed more than $800 billion over two years. Unlike traditional loans, those given as part of the pandemic relief program can be forgiven if certain conditions are met. Proceeds had to be spent on payroll and other eligible expenses within a designated time frame, for example. But some borrowers who say they meet the criteria are struggling with technical snafus, onerous documentation requirements and confusing websites.
Regulators’ ‘junk fee’ complaints not backed up by data - American Banker op ed - It seems that almost every week a member of Congress, the director of the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau or the acting comptroller of the currency has something negative to say about the banking industry. Where do they get the data to support their criticism?Recently, CFPB Director Rohit Chopra, during an online discussion with The Washington Post, indicated he would focus on “junk fees.” In addition, he stated: “Banking is a bastion of many of these fees.” He also mentioned overdraft fees. The most recent semiannual report to Congress from the CFPB, Chopra’s own agency, was issued last spring, and covered the period from April 1, 2020, to March 31, 2021. This report states that during this 12-month period, the CFPB received 646,200 consumer complaints.
New York’s top bank regulator pledges focus on ‘kitchen table issues’ Adrienne Harris, the recently confirmed head of the New York State Department of Financial Services, says she’s focusing the agency’s enforcement work far more on “kitchen table issues” than was previously the case.The agency will still penalize big banks when they run afoul of regulations, Harris said at an event Monday, but it’s also focusing on issues that grab fewer headlines but nonetheless have a big impact on people’s pocketbooks.Last month, for example, the New York regulator reached a $10 million settlement with a life insurance company. And on Monday it announced an emergency action that will prevent a large hike in fees for consumers who use check-cashing services.
Santander will exit U.S. home lending, review commercial segments --Banco Santander plans to exit U.S. residential mortgage lending and review its stateside presence in certain commercial segments as part of a broader overhaul of its American franchise.Santander will focus on growing its U.S. auto lending and consumer lending segments, the Spanish banking giant said Wednesday. It also plans to concentrate on banking middle-market clients in this country, and on working with corporate clients across its global footprint.The changes are part of a multiyear effort, internally called One Santander, that has already included an exit from retail banking in Puerto Rico and the downsizing of the company’s Northeast U.S. branch footprint.
Fannie and Freddie: REO inventory declined in Q4 year-over-year; Expected to increase in 2022 -- Fannie and Freddie earlier reported results for Q4 2021. Here is some information on single-family Real Estate Owned (REOs). Here is a note on the pandemic impact on foreclosures, from Fannie: "In response to the pandemic and with instruction from FHFA, we prohibited our servicers from completing foreclosures on our single-family loans through July 31, 2021, except in the case of vacant or abandoned properties. In addition, as described in “Single-Family Acquisition and Servicing Policies and Underwriting and Servicing Standards—COVID-19 Servicing Policies,” our servicers were required to comply with a CFPB rule that prohibited certain new single-family foreclosures on mortgage loans secured by the borrower’s principal residence until after December 31, 2021. As a result, foreclosure volumes were lower through 2021 and 2020 compared with pre-pandemic levels. We expect foreclosure volumes to gradually increase in 2022." Freddie Mac reported the number of REO declined to 1,615 at the end of Q4 2021 compared to 1,766 at the end of Q4 2020. For Freddie, this is down 98% from the 74,897 peak number of REOs in Q3 2010. Fannie Mae reported the number of REO declined to 7,166 at the end of Q4 2021 compared to 7,973 at the end of Q4 2020. For Fannie, this is down 96% from the 166,787 peak number of REOs in Q3 2010. Here is a graph of Fannie and Freddie Real Estate Owned (REO). REO inventory decreased in Q2 2021, and combined inventory is down 10% year-over-year. This is well below a normal level of REOs for Fannie and Freddie, and REO levels will increase in 2022.
The Housing Bubble and Mortgage Debt as a Percent of GDP - In a 2005 post, I included a graph of household mortgage debt as a percent of GDP.Several readers asked if I could update the graph. First, from February 2005 (17 years ago!): The following chart shows household mortgage debt as a % of GDP. Although mortgage debt has been increasing for years, the last four years have seen a tremendous increase in debt. Last year alone mortgage debt increased close to $800 Billion - almost 7% of GDP. ... Many homeowners have refinanced their homes, in essence using their homes as an ATM. It wouldn't take a RE bust to impact the general economy. Just a slowdown in both volume (to impact employment) and in prices (to slow down borrowing) might push the general economy into recession. An actual bust, especially with all of the extensive sub-prime lending, might cause a serious problem.The second graph shows household mortgage debt as a percent of GDP through Q3 2021 (based on the Fed’s Flow of Funds report).The "bubble" is pretty obvious on this graph, and the sharp increase in mortgage debt was one of the warning signs. The blip up in Q2 2020 was related to the collapse in GDP rather than an increase in mortgage debt. With the recent house price increases, some people are worried about a new housing bubble - but mortgage debt isn't a concern and lending standards are much better now than during the bubble.The third graph, from the NY Fed’s Quarterly Report on Household Debt and Crediton mortgage originations by credit scores is one indicator that lending has been reasonably solid.From the NY Fed:The credit scores of newly originated mortgages had increased in the early part of the pandemic, but have declined in recentquarters, yet remain very high and reflect a continuing high quality of newly opened mortgages as well as a higher share of refinances.
MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest Weekly Survey **From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey: Mortgage applications decreased 5.4 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending February 11, 2022.... The Refinance Index decreased 9 percent from the previous week and was 54 percent lower than the same week one year ago. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 1 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index increased 5 percent compared with the previous week and was 7 percent lower than the same week one year ago.“Mortgage rates increased across the board last week following the recent rise in Treasury yields, which have moved higher due to unrelenting inflationary pressures and increased market expectations of more aggressive policy moves by the Federal Reserve," said Joel Kan, MBA's Associate Vice President of Economic and Industry Forecasting. "The 30-year fixed rate saw the largest single-week increase since March 2020 and was above the 4 percent mark for the first time since 2019. Consistent with this period of higher mortgage rates, refinance applications fell 9 percent last week and stood at around half of last year’s pace. The refinance share of applications was also at its lowest level since July 2019."Added Kan, “Purchase applications saw a modest decline over the week, with government purchase applications accounting for most of the decrease. Prospective buyers still face elevated sales prices in addition to higher mortgage rates. The heavier mix of conventional applications again contributed to another record average loan size at $453,000....The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($647,200 or less) increased to 4.05 percent from 3.83 percent, with points increasing to 0.45 from 0.40 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value ratio (LTV) loans.The first graph shows the refinance index since 1990.With higher mortgage rates, the refinance index has declined sharply over the last several months.The second graph shows the MBA mortgage purchase index
On-Time Rent Payments Sag Amid Massive Spike in Rents -How have on-time rent collections been doing in this era of spiking rents? Across the 100 largest markets in the US, in in multifamily buildings the median asking rent for one-bedroom apartments jumped by 12% year-over-year. . The median asking rent for two-bedroom rents jumped by 14%. In 34 cities, asking rents spiked by 15% to 28% year-over-year. Turns out, there is a perplexing deterioration of on-time rent payments that started in mid-2019 and has continued through the end of 2021, interrupted only by the months when the big stimulus checks – not the little one – went out that allowed more households to make timely rent payments. Only 92% of renter households had made their rent payment for December by the end of December, the lowest percentage since April 2019, down from 93.8% in December 2020, and down from 95.9% in December 2019. What stands out is the down-trend over those 33 months, interrupted by the months when the big stimulus checks poured into household coffers. What also stands out is that the $600 stimmies that went out at the end of December 2020 and in January 2021 didn’t cut it, in terms of rents. They were likely used to deal with the credit-card hangover from holiday essentials. Most of the eviction bans have now ended, but rent-and-landlord-support programs by various government entities to deal with the eviction bans, and the end of eviction bans, are still going on. This came on top of the now-ended flows of free money via extra unemployment benefits, PPP loans, stimulus checks, and other programs. This data is based on actual rent collections from 11.8 million market-rate apartments in multifamily buildings (not single-family rentals) that are managed by corporate landlords. These apartments house about one quarter of the total 44 million renter households in the US. This special pandemic-era rent-collection tracker was provided by the National Multifamily Housing Council (NMHC), based on data from companies that sell property-management software to larger landlords. This rent collection data does not include mom-and-pop operations, single-family rentals, subsidized affordable units, privatized military housing units, and student housing. This rent collection trend comes amid a massive surge in market rents in many cities. Across the 100 largest markets in the US, in multifamily buildings – many of them managed by the very landlords in the above rent collection data – the median asking rent for one-bedroom apartments jumped by 12% year-over-year. In 34 cities, asking rents spiked by 15% to 28% year-over-year. Those are massive increases. A 20% increase of a $2,000 rent payment means the household must come up with $400 per month more just to spend on rent.
When Will the Brutal Spike in Rents Drive Up CPI Inflation? How Much Will it Add to CPI? - By Wolf Richter -Two rent factors account for 32% of the Consumer Price Index. Despite the massive spike in “asking rents” across the US, those two CPI rent factors have been much lower than CPI and have thereby repressed CPI so far. Unlike asking rents, these two rent factors track the average rent that tenants are actually paying across the entire stock of rental units in US cities, including in rent-controlled units.On the other hand, “asking rents” reflect current price tags on units listed for rent that people have not yet rented, and it takes a while for people to rent these units and pay those rents in large enough numbers to where they move the needle of the average rent actually paid across the entire stock of US rental units, which then gets picked up by the CPI rent measures.But those two CPI rent factors are bound to catch up with asking rents and they will then fuel overall CPI – which was already 7.5% in January, WHOOSH.But when will the spike in asking rents drive up CPI? And how much will it add to CPI?The short answer: The current spikes in asking rents that have already occurred through January 2022 will add more than 1 percentage point to overall CPI for the year 2022, and will add more than 1 percentage point to overall CPI in 2023, even if asking rents don’t rise further from here. This is already baked into the numbers. CPI is going to catch up with a painful reality spread over the next two years. Rents for single-family houses and condos on the rental market exploded by 12% year-over-year in the US, varying widely from city to city, the worst increase in the data which starts in 2004, according to CoreLogic today. Miami was on top of the list, with a 35% spike in rents. In the years between the Financial Crisis and the pandemic, rents of single-family houses in the US had been increasing in the 2.5% to 3.5% range. Rents in apartment buildings – does not include single-family houses and condos for rent – jumped by 12% for one-bedroom apartments and by 14% for two-bedroom apartments on average across the US, according to Zumper data. In 20 of the 100 largest cities, rents spiked by 20% or more, and in 11 of them, rents spiked by 25% or more. This is based on median asking rents, which are the rents landlords advertise for their listings. By a different measure, the Zillow Observed Rent Index, rents in January spiked by 14.9% year-over-year across the US, varying widely among cities.All these measures show the same thing: On average, rents across the US spiked by over 12% year-over-year, varying widely from city to city, with some cities experiencing astronomical rent increases.
Thoughts on Housing Supply and Demand With 30-year mortgage rates above 4%:So far, there has been no obvious impact on demand from 30-year mortgage rates above 4%. Here is a graph from MortgageNewsDaily of 30-year mortgage rates. I’ve spoken to several mortgage brokers over the last few days, and they are reporting purchase demand remains strong. They did mention a decline in refinance activity due to higher rates, and several brokers mentioned appraisals are falling short - and buyers are having to fill the “appraisal gap”.Other measures of demand - like the MBA purchase index - have weakened a little - but are still showing solid purchase demand (the weekly index is released every Wednesday). From the MBA this morning: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly SurveyThe seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 1 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index increased 5 percent compared with the previous week and was 7 percent lower than the same week one year ago. The NAHB monthly homebuilder survey is showing strong buying demand. From the NAHB: Builder Confidence Eases on Supply-Side ConstraintsDespite strong buyer demand, builder sentiment continued to slip in February as the industry grapples with ongoing building material production bottlenecks that are raising construction costs and delaying projects. … The HMI index gauging current sales conditions increased one point to 90 This is very strong “current sales conditions. All indications are demand remains strong. Existing supply is still at record lows. The weekly Altos Research survey showedHousing Inventory February 14th Update: Inventory Down 2.5% Week-over-week; New Record Low: As of February 11th, inventory was at 250 thousand (7-day average), compared to 344 thousand for the same week a year ago. That is a decline of 27.5%. … Last year, seasonally, inventory bottomed in April 2021 - very late in the year - usually inventory bottoms by February. An early key in 2022 will be to watch if inventory bottoms earlier this year. Also, my monthly survey of local markets indicates inventory is at record lows in almost every market. Meanwhile, homebuilders are struggling with both price increases and supply constraints. The most recent new home sales report showed that the Inventory of homes under construction highest since 2007 and the most recent housing starts report showed Most Housing Units Under Construction Since 1973
NAR: Existing-Home Sales Increased to 6.50 million SAAR in January - From the NAR: Existing-Home Sales Surge 6.7% in January: Existing-home sales rose in January, making a notable move upward following a previous month where sales declined, according to the National Association of Realtors®. On a month-over-month basis, each of the four major U.S. regions experienced an increase in sales in January. However, year-over-year, activity was mixed as two regions reported sagging sales, another watched sales increase and a fourth region remained flat.Total existing-home sales, completed transactions that include single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops, climbed 6.7% from December to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 6.50 million in January. Year-over-year, sales fell 2.3% (6.65 million in January 2021)....Total housing inventory at the end of January amounted to 860,000 units, down 2.3% from December and down 16.5% from one year ago (1.03 million). Unsold inventory sits at a 1.6-month supply at the current sales pace, down from 1.7 months in December and from 1.9 months in January 2021.This graph shows existing home sales, on a Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate (SAAR) basis since 1993.Sales in January (6.50 million SAAR) were up 6.7% from last month and were 2.3% below the January 2021 sales rate.The second graph shows nationwide inventory for existing homes.According to the NAR, inventory decreased to 0.86 million in January from 0.88 million in December. Headline inventory is not seasonally adjusted, and inventory usually decreases to the seasonal lows in December and January, and peaks in mid-to-late summer.The last graph shows the year-over-year (YoY) change in reported existing home inventory and months-of-supply. Since inventory is not seasonally adjusted, it really helps to look at the YoY change. Note: Months-of-supply is based on the seasonally adjusted sales and not seasonally adjusted inventory.Inventory was down 16.5% year-over-year in January compared to January 2021.Months of supply declined to 1.6 months in January from 1.7 months in December.
This was above the consensus forecast.
More Analysis on January Existing Home Sales - Today, in the CalculatedRisk Real Estate Newsletter: Existing-Home Sales Increased to 6.50 million in January Excerpt: This graph shows existing home sales by month for 2021 and 2022. Sales declined 2.3% year-over-year compared to January 2021. This was the sixth consecutive month with sales down year-over-year.... [and on inventory] According to the NAR, inventory decreased to 0.86 million in January from 0.88 million in December. Inventory is now at a record low.
Housing Starts Decreased to 1.638 million Annual Rate in January From the Census Bureau: Permits, Starts and Completions} Privately‐owned housing starts in January were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,638,000. This is 4.1 percent below the revised December estimate of 1,708,000, but is 0.8 percent above the January 2021 rate of 1,625,000. Single‐family housing starts in January were at a rate of 1,116,000; this is 5.6 percent below the revised December figure of 1,182,000. The January rate for units in buildings with five units or more was 510,000. Privately‐owned housing units authorized by building permits in January were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,899,000. This is 0.7 percent above the revised December rate of 1,885,000 and is 0.8 percent above the January 2021 rate of 1,883,000. Single‐family authorizations in January were at a rate of 1,205,000; this is 6.8 percent above the revised December figure of 1,128,000. Authorizations of units in buildings with five units or more were at a rate of 629,000 in January. The first graph shows single and multi-family housing starts for the last several years. Multi-family starts (blue, 2+ units) decreased in January compared to December. Multi-family starts were up 8.3%year-over-year in January. Single-family starts (red) decreased in January and were down 2.4% year-over-year. The second graph shows single and multi-family housing starts since 1968. This shows the huge collapse following the housing bubble, and then the eventual recovery (but still not historically high). Total housing starts in January were below expectations, however, starts in November and December were revised up, combined.
January Housing Starts: Most Housing Units Under Construction Since 1973 --Today, in the CalculatedRisk Real Estate Newsletter: January Housing Starts: Most Housing Units Under Construction Since 1973 Excerpt: The fourth graph shows housing starts under construction, Seasonally Adjusted (SA). Red is single family units. Currently there are 785 thousand single family units under construction (SA). This is the highest level since December 2006.For single family, many of these homes are already sold (Census counts sales when contract is signed). The reason there are so many homes is probably due to construction delays. Since many of these are already sold, it is unlikely this is “overbuilding”, or that this will impact prices (although the buyers will be moving out of their current home or apartment once these homes are completed). Blue is for 2+ units. Currently there are 758 thousand multi-family units under construction. This is the highest level since July 1974! For multi-family, construction delays are probably also a factor. The completion of these units should help with rent pressure.Census will release data in March (part of February survey) on the length of time from start to completion, and that will probably show long delays in 2021. In 2020, it took an average of 6.8 months from start to completion for single family homes, and 15.4 months for buildings with 2 or more units.Combined, there are 1.543 million units under construction. This is the most since September 1973. There is much more in the post.
Housing permits jump; the last hurrah before mortgage rates bite? - This morning’s report on January housing permits and starts highlighted the unique divergence between the two. As I have often pointed out, permits are the more leading and less noisy of the two reports, so I usually highlight them, especially single family permits. But in the past year there has been a marked divergence in trend between the two data sets, as permits soared then sank, while starts have been much more steady. The explanation for the divergence is the huge number of housing units for which permits have been taken out, but on which construction has not started. In January that was 280,000 on a seasonally adjusted basis (red), the highest such number since non-seasonally adjusted records (blue) began in 1974: There are simply a huge number of units that *could* be started, but haven’t, probably because of a shortage of some necessary materials (I’ve heard, e.g., that windows are particularly in short supply). With that in mind, below are total housing permits (blue), total starts (gray), and single family permits (red, right scale):As you can see, there was a surge in permits one year ago, which then declined sharply. Total permits have risen again, to 1.899 million annualized, the highest number since September 2005. Single family permits also rose to 1.205 million, a one year high, but below January 2021’s high of 1.268 million. Starts, on the other hand, declined to 1.638 million. I deal with that by averaging the last 3 months, which makes the number much less volatile. That average, 1.683 million, is the highest number since September 2006. A close-up of the three series since 2019 is below, better to show that actual starts have varied around 1.600 million in the past 12 months:Since starts are the actual, hard economic activity, this indicates that housing is still a positive for the economy looking out ahead 12 months.A big surge in housing permits in the face of rising mortgage rates, at least initially, is not really a surprise. The same thing happened several times in the past decade, notably in early 2014 and 2016, as potential buyers rush to close before rates climb even higher. Housing (blue and gray below, /10 for scale) does follow mortgage rates (red), but with a 3 to 6 month lag as shown in the graph of the YoY% change in each for the past 10 years, which I have run many times in the past: After this surge, which may persist another month or so, I fully expect housing starts and permits to decline, and substantially, in accord with the big increase in mortgage rates to over 4%, about 1.3% above their 2021 lows.
NAHB: Builder Confidence Decreased to 82 in February - The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) reported the housing market index (HMI) was at 82, down from 83 in January. Any number above 50 indicates that more builders view sales conditions as good than poor. From the NAHB: Builder Confidence Eases on Supply-Side Constraints Despite strong buyer demand, builder sentiment continued to slip in February as the industry grapples with ongoing building material production bottlenecks that are raising construction costs and delaying projects. Builder confidence in the market for newly built single-family homes moved one point lower to 82 in February, marking the second straight month that confidence levels have declined by a single point, according to the NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) released today. Despite these monthly declines, the HMI has posted very solid readings at or above the 80-point mark for the past five months. “Production disruptions are so severe that many builders are waiting months to receive cabinets, garage doors, countertops and appliances,” “These delivery delays are raising construction costs and pricing prospective buyers out of the market. Policymakers must make it a priority to address supply chain issues that are harming housing affordability.” “Residential construction costs are up 21% on a year over year basis, and these higher development costs have hit first-time buyers particularly hard,” “Higher interest rates in 2022 will further reduce housing affordability even as demand remains solid due to a lack of resale inventory.” The HMI index gauging current sales conditions increased one point to 90, the gauge measuring sales expectations in the next six months fell two points to 80, and the component charting traffic of prospective buyers posted a four-point decline to 65.Looking at the three-month moving averages for regional HMI scores, the Northeast increased three points to 76, the West rose one point to 89, the Midwest fell one point to 73 and the South edged one point lower to 86. This graph shows the NAHB index since Jan 1985. This was at the consensus forecast, and a strong reading.
Hotels: Occupancy Rate Down 14% Compared to Same Week in 2019From CoStar: STR: US Hotel Industry Reaches Highest Performance Since December: U.S. weekly hotel performance advanced to its highest levels since December, according to STR‘s latest data through Feb. 12.
Feb. 6-12, 2022 (percentage change from comparable week in 2019*):
• Occupancy: 54.6% (-14.0%)
• Average daily rate (ADR): $133.72 (+1.3%)
• Revenue per available room (RevPAR): $73.00 (-12.9%)
*Due to the pandemic impact, STR is measuring recovery against comparable time periods from 2019.
The following graph shows the seasonal pattern for the hotel occupancy rate using the four-week average.The red line is for 2022, black is 2020, blue is the median, and dashed light blue is for 2021. The 4-week average of the occupancy rate is below the median rate for the previous 20 years (Blue).
What are Vacant Office Towers Worth? Foreclosure Sales Show How Values of 1980s Office Towers in Houston Have Collapsed, Dishing out Huge Losses for CMBS - By Wolf Richter -- We’re now seeing some of the results of the Houston office bust percolate through Commercial Mortgage Backed Securities (CMBS). Houston’s office market got hit by a triple-whammy.First there was an office construction boom riding on high oil prices. Then there was the collapse of high oil prices – WTI plunged from over $100 a barrel in mid-2014 to about $25 a barrel in 2016 – that sent a slew of oil-and-gas companies into bankruptcy and caused an industry-wide wave of layoffs, including of office workers, cost cutting, and debt restructuring. Then came working from home, which reduced the need for office space further. By Q4 2021, 33% of the total Class A office space was on the market for lease, the worst in the US. In the Energy Corridor, 35% of all office space was on the market for lease. As the latest and greatest office trophy towers were completed and came on the market, and with so much fancy space available, oil companies, law firms, and other businesses began to upgrade their digs, moving from older office towers to the latest and greatest, and the older office towers started emptying out, and then started defaulting on their loans that had been securitized a few years earlier into CMBS and sold to investors.So what are older office towers like this worth when they’re finally sold? Not much. And how much are lenders and investors losing on them? Huge amounts. This is an example of such an office building that was just sold, and the numbers are in. Three Westlake Park, a 420,000 square-foot Class A office tower in Houston’s Energy Corridor, completed in 1983 and renovated in 2005, had gone into default and was taken over by its lenders. It has now been liquidated, and the numbers are in, and they’re horrible. This is the building: Its sister tower on the same campus, the 450,000 square foot Two Westlake Park, had already defaulted on a $87.5 million loan in 2018. The loan, which had been securitized in 2014 by Wells Fargo into CMBS (WFRBS 2014-C24), was liquidated in mid-2020 in a foreclosure transaction, where the collateral sold for $18 million. Trepp, which tracks CMBS, reportedat the time that after $2.2 million in foreclosure fees and expenses, lenders wrote off $71.6 million of the $87.5 million loan, for a loss severity of 81.9%. OK, so now the Three Westlake Park was liquidated, and the numbers are even more horrible. The outstanding mortgage loan balance on Three Westlake Park amounted to $76.3 million, according to Trepp. Back in 2014, when the mortgage was securitized by Goldman Sachs into CMBS (it made up 10.4% of GSMS 2014-GC20) and sold to investors, the tower was occupied by ConocoPhillips and BP. But BP moved out in 2015, amid job cuts. And Conoco Phillips vacated in 2019 when the lease expired. Since then, the building has been vacant. […] In October 2018, given the departure of the tenants, the loan was sent to the special servicer, which commissioned a series of appraisals. The first appraisal came in 2019, which slashed the “value” of the collateral to $41 million. The second appraisal in 2020 lowered the value to $38 million; and the third appraisal, in 2021, slashed to collateral value to $25.2 million. The tower has now been sold for $20.6 million, after having been “valued” at $121.1 million in 2014 for the purpose of selling the CMBS to investors. After liquidation expenses of $11.7 million, lenders got just $9.2 million, forcing them to write off $67.4 million of the $76.3 million loan, for a loss ratio of 88.3%. The Houston office market is in a particularly tough spot. And as with Two Westlake Park and Three Westlake Park, the issues take years to finally get resolved with huge losses for the lenders. Other cities too are now facing their own office busts, with huge amounts of office space on the market for lease, and few takers, amid massively inflated office rents.
Retail Sales Increased 3.8% in January On a monthly basis, retail sales were increased 3.8% from December to January (seasonally adjusted), and sales were up 13.0 percent from January 2021.From the Census Bureau report: Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for January 2022, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $649.8 billion, an increase of 3.8 percent from the previous month, and 13.0 percent above January 2021. This graph shows retail sales since 1992. This is monthly retail sales and food service, seasonally adjusted (total and ex-gasoline). Retail sales ex-gasoline were up 4.2% in January.The second graph shows the year-over-year change in retail sales and food service (ex-gasoline) since 1993.Retail and Food service sales, ex-gasoline, increased by 11.2% on a YoY basis.Sales in January were well above expectations, and sales in November and December were revised up, combined.
Americans' spending rebounded to record highs in January as strong demand overpowered the Omicron wave's peak Retail sales rebounded through January as the Omicron wave hit its peak and inflation turned even hotter. Spending at US retailers and restaurants rose 3.8% last month to a record $649.8 billion, the Census Bureau said Wednesday. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg expected sales to jump 2%. The print reveals spending sharply accelerated in the first weeks of 2022 after diving 2.5% the month prior. December's total was revised to $626.3 billion from $626.8 billion, according to the report. Spending soared the most for nonstore retailers like Amazon, with the sector enjoying a 14.5% leap in sales. Department stores followed with a 9.2% gain. Furniture stores and vehicle dealers saw 7.2% and 5.9% increases, respectively. Sales fell the most for sporting goods, hobby, musical instrument, and book stores, as the sector saw a 3% decline through January. Gas stations saw sales contract 1.3% as gasoline prices edged slightly lower through the month. Sales fell slightly for restaurants and bars as well. The Wednesday report signals demand held strong despite the Omicron wave hitting its peak. Daily virus infections hit a record 1.43 million on January 10 as holiday travel boosted the variant's spread. Case counts have fallen sharply since, but they remained elevated through the end of last month. The data suggests the virus is playing a diminished role in keeping Americans from their pre-crisis shopping habits. The data also hints at high inflation doing little to curb spending. Prices soared 7.5% year-over-year in January, according to government data published Thursday. That marked the fastest inflation since February 1982, and the month-over-month gain matched December's 0.6% rate.
Americans Spent Money Like Drunken Sailors, But Did They Outspend the Raging Inflation in Durable and Nondurable Goods? - Wolf Richter - The two big elephants in retail sales over the past 12 months, and particularly this January, were horrendously spiking retail prices of goods and seasonal adjustments when the pandemic upended normal seasonality. A month ago, these seasonal adjustments caused December retail sales to drop sharply, amid a lot of hand-wringing about the health of the consumer. But not-seasonally adjusted retail sales, as I pointed out at the time, spiked to high heaven, testifying to the will of consumers to spend money like a drunken sailor.In January, retail sales always plunge after the holiday binge, in part because people return the stuff, and returns count as negative sales. And in January 2022, not-seasonally-adjusted retail sales plunged by 18.5% from December, to $581 billion, according to the Census Bureau today. But this plunge was smaller than the past 11 Januaries that averaged 20.4%.Compared to January 2021, which eliminates seasonal issues, retail sales jumped by 12.3%. In December, retail sales had jumped by 16.6% year-over-year. Every month since March 2020, retail sales jumped by the double digits. These are huge and unprecedented year-over-year increases: Seasonally adjusted, retail sales jumped 3.8% in January from December, to $650 billion, after having dropped 2.5% in December (red line).Not seasonally adjusted, sales dropped 18.5% in January to $581 billion (purple line), but that was a smaller drop than in most prior Januaries. Compared to January 2021, sales were up by 12.3%, and compared to January 2020, by 21%! Note the seasonal regularity in pre-pandemic years, and how the pandemic has upended that pattern – and shifted it higher: How much of the 12.3% jump in sales year-over-year was due to price increases? Retail sales are sales of goods. Services, such as haircuts, insurance, transportation services such as plane tickets, rents, etc. are not included in retail sales. Products that retailers sell can be grouped into two categories: durable goods (vehicles, auto parts, appliances, building materials, electronics, etc.) and nondurable goods (mostly stuff bought at the supermarkets and at gas stations). And inflation has been spiking ridiculouslyin both durable goods and nondurable goods.Durable goods CPI in January spiked 18.4%, highest on record going back to the 1950s (red line). These are the price changes that inflate retail sales at auto dealers, ecommerce operations, home improvement stores, etc. Nondurable goods CPI spiked by 9.8% in January (purple line). These are the price changes that inflate sales at gas stations and at stores that sell food, beverages, and household supplies:
US Retail Sales Exploded Higher In January. There's Just One Thing... After December's gravely disappointing drop in retail sales, analysts are convinced January will see all that pent-up demand come flying back and expected a 2.0% MoM jump (despite a collapse in consumer confidence, especially buying attitudes and financial well-being expectations). In fact the analysts under-appreciated the rebound as headline retail sales exploded a stunning 3.8% MoM Graphs Source: BloombergThat is the biggest MoM surge since March 2021's stimmy-driven surge in spending.The rebound was mostly driven by a huge jump in non-store retailers (e.g. online, Amazon etc) and in autos...Non-store retailers saw their second biggest MoM jump in history... Finally, the Control Group - which is used to calculate GDP - showed a massive 4.8% MoM surge after its 3.1% MoM collapse in December Source: Bloomberg Remember, all the retail sales data is nominal, and thus with CPI and PPI soaring near record highs, disseminating the real demand pull from the inflation push is all but impossible in deciding whether the consumer is 'healthy' and spending again.Finally, before we all go celebrating the return of the consumer, it is worth considering the absolutely stunning difference between 'adjusted' and non-adjusted retail sales data in January... While 'adjusted' retail sales soared 3.8% MoM, the unadjusted retail sales data for January collapsed by a record 18.5% MoM. This is the biggest seasonal adjustment on record.
Shoplifting reaches crisis proportions -Shoplifting has gotten so bad nationally that chains like Rite Aid are closing hard-hit stores, sending terrified employees home in Ubers and locking up aisles of seemingly mundane items like deodorant and toothpaste. Retailers are already reeling from the pandemic, supply chain woes and the labor shortage. Now they're combating systematic looting by organized crime gangs — which are growing more aggressive and violent."It's out of control — it is just out of control," Lisa LaBruno, SVP of operations and innovation at the Retail Industry Leaders Association, tells Axios. A lot of the uptick is tied to the ease of reselling stolen goods online, plus the fact that consumers are buying more everyday goods online during COVID. "We have experienced a 300% increase in retail theft from our stores since the pandemic began." CVS spokesman Michael DeAngelis tells Axios.At a Rite Aid that just closed its doors in midtown Manhattan, more than $200,000 in goods were stolen in December and January, per the New York Post.“They come in every day, sometimes twice a day, with laundry bags and just load up on stuff,” the Post quoted a store employee saying. The retail industry is pressing Congress to pass the INFORM Act, which would require online marketplaces (like Amazon, eBay and Facebook) to verify sellers and provide contact information to buyers.Attorneys general in states like California, Arizona and New Mexico are setting up anti-shoplifting task forces and looking at stricter laws on bail reform and felony thresholds. District attorneys in cities like Chicago and New York are considering harsher measures against shoplifters.The big picture: The problem is made worse by flash mobs like the 80 people who stormed a Nordstrom in San Francisco in November, and organized retail crime groups that often hire homeless people and drug addicts as "boosters" to do the dirty work.Store shelves aren't the only places getting hit: Warehouses and cargo trucks are also in the crosshairs. Teams of "boosters" will throng a store with laundry bags, grabbing what they can and assaulting workers who confront them — sometimesfatally.: One Bay Area crime ring stole $8 million in merchandise from CVS, Walgreens and Target stores.Another one ripped off a staggering $50 million in goods — mostly health and beauty products that thieves stockpiled in a warehouse. "More than $1.6 million in razor blades alone were recovered," per Loss Prevention Magazine.
Weekly Gasoline Prices: Highest Since 2012 - As of February 14, the price of Regular and Premium were up four each from the previous week and their highest since 2012. According to GasBuddy.com, California has the highest average price for Regular at $4.69 and Oklahoma has the cheapest at $3.13. The WTIC end-of-day spot price closed at 95.46 and is up 4.5% from last week and is at its highest levels since 2014.President Biden has announced plans to release gasoline reserves to mitigate rising oil prices.How far are we from the interim high prices of 2011 and the all-time highs of 2008? Here's a visual answer.
The return of the “Oil Choke Collar”!For the first five years after the end of the Great Recession, one of the staples of my analysis was the concept of the “oil choke collar.” By that I meant that typically recessions had occurred after there was a sudden and sharp upward spike in the cost of gas, inflicting such pain that consumers cut back drastically on other spending – causing a prompt economic downturn. But what if, instead, gas prices rose more gradually to the pain threshold? Then we could expect consumers to react less drastically, cutting back marginally on other purchases. The economy would slow, gas prices would retreat, the pain would go away, and consumers would resume their prior purchases. And repeat. In other words, gas prices would act as a “choke collar” on the economy, biting and relaxing as consumer purchases waxed and waned. There would be no recession, but no great growth either. And then, in 2014, gas prices fell precipitously from $3.75 to just over $2 a gallon. That put an end to the oil choke collar! Is it coming back? Last week I wrote that gas prices had increased almost 30% above their average level of the past 5 years, And so I anticipated some consumer distress. I mentioned the idea in my “Weekly Indicators” column, which caused several long-time readers to pipe up and ask about the status of the “oil choke collar.” So let’s take a look. The “oil choke collar” does not depend upon the absolute price of gas, but rather its relationship to spending. There are at least 3 ways of comparison: (1) to average wages, (2) to disposable income, and (3) to GDP. The first two are measures of the hit gas purchases made to consumers’ wallets, and the third measures against the entire economy. Below I’ll look at each in turn. Note that weekly gas prices weren’t compiled until after 1990, so for the period before that I use Texas crude spot prices only. The OPEC oil shocks of the 1970’s, the Kuwait invasion shock of 1990, and the 2006-08 shocks stand out. In addition to the 2010-14 period, the 1975-79 period also stands out as a period of a “choke collar,” with consistent elevated prices that mainly went sideways, operating as a depressant on the economy without causing recessions. Measured in terms of gas prices (not oil prices), we are about 10% below the price where the “choke collar” would take effect. 2. Vs. Disposable personal income This is an even better comparison than just against hourly wages, since it measures the hit to discretionary spending. Note that I’ve normed both graphs to 100 as of July 2012, a typical month of the “oil choke collar” period. We see that any sudden sharp move substantially above 100 has been consistent with a recession, while periods oscillating about 100 are eras of subpar growth. The current value is just over 65% for gas prices, meaning they would have to rise to about $4.25 a gallon for the “choke collar” to engage. Oil analyst Steven Kopitsin the past has written that every time Oil prices rise to a level of 4% or more of GDP, a recession has followed. The below graphs norm that to 100 as displayed. Once again, we see that every time this metric shoots suddenly past 100, a recession has occurred. The two times it has oscillated around that point – in the later 1970s and 2010-14 – there has been no recession, but growth has suffered. The metric for gas prices currently measures at roughly 70. Again, gas prices of roughly $4.25 a gallon would engage the “choke collar,” equivalent to about oil prices at $125/barrel. As I write this, oil prices are about $93/barrel, and gas prices are about $3.50/gallon. As I wrote last week, because this is a big jump compared with the last 5 years, I expect there to be some consumer distress. But we aren’t at the point of engaging the “oil choke collar” yet.
Record job-switching rates are pushing U.S. inflation higher, Chicago Fed study finds (Reuters) - The unprecedented level of job switching seen last year as the U.S. labor market rebounded from the pandemic gave workers more leverage to ask for better pay and played a role in pushing inflation to its highest level in decades, a new study suggests. An increase in the share of people who searched for jobs while they were employed helped boost inflation by about 1 percentage point throughout much of last year, according to a paper released on Monday by the Chicago Federal Reserve. That suggests job-switching at times accounted for roughly 20% of the price growth seen in 2021. "Workers' propensity to search for another job is an important driver of inflation," said Leonardo Melosi, a senior economist for the Chicago Fed and a co-author of the report. People who search for new work while they still have a job can end up with higher salaries - and more spending power - after switching jobs or receiving a raise from their current employer, the researchers said. Job switching took off last year as job postings soared and the number of people quitting reached record levels Link Nearly 4 million Americans on average quit their jobs each month last year - often in search of better pay or more flexibility. Fed officials are under greater pressure to combat higher inflation after data released last week Link showed that consumer prices posted their largest annual gain in 40 years. Watching what happens to the trend some analysts have dubbed the Great Resignation could offer a hint on the future path of price increases, Melosi said. If job-switching dies down as the pandemic recedes, that could help to ease inflationary pressures. But if people continue to change jobs in search of better pay or new opportunities, those inflationary pressures could continue, researchers said. Still, labor market turnover will not be the only factor influencing inflation, Melosi said, noting that supply-chain disruptions and other factors are larger drivers.
Producer price index January 2022: Wholesale prices rise 1% in January, up near-record 9.7% over the past year - Prices at the wholesale level jumped twice the expected level in January as inflation pressures were unabated to start the year, the Labor Department said Tuesday. The producer price index, which measures final demand goods and services, increased 1% for the month, against the Dow Jones estimate for 0.5%. Over the past 12 months the gauge rose an unadjusted 9.7%, close to a record in data going back to 2010. Excluding food, energy and trade services, co-called core PPI climbed 0.9% for the month, well ahead of the 0.4% estimate. For the 12-month period, the measure increased 6.9%. Both core and headline PPI gains over the year were 0.1 percentage point lower than the record levels hit in December 2021. As has been the case through much of the Covid pandemic era, goods prices outweighed those for services, rising 1.3% and 0.7% respectively. Final demand energy prices jumped 2.5% in January, while food climbed 1.6%. The increases come amid burgeoning inflation across the economy, with consumer prices running at a 40-year high. "PPI offers a window to the price pressures that businesses are facing, and which will likely be passed on to consumers in the way of consumer price inflation in the months to come," . "Strong gains across the board for businesses reinforce the inflationary concerns that the Federal Reserve is set to battle this year with monetary policy, and which the economy in general has recently begun expressing caution and concern over." Fed officials plan to act soon to contain the price rises, with interest rate hikes expected to begin in March and continue throughout the year. The White House in a statement said it respects the Fed's independence and urged Congress to vote on two nominees to the board of governors. President Joe Biden "will continue to make progress on his three-part plan of addressing supply chain disruptions; lowering kitchen tables costs with his Build Back Better agenda; and promoting more competition," the statement said. A separate report Tuesday morning showed that manufacturing activity in the New York region was little changed in February. The Empire State Manufacturing Survey, conducted by the New York Fed, registered a 3.1 reading, up from -0.7 in January but below the 11 estimate. The gauge represents the percentage difference between companies reporting expansion against those seeing contraction. New orders and hiring posted significant gains, but they were mostly outweighed by declines in general business conditions and unfilled orders. Inflation also showed up in that report, with the prices received index spiking 17 points as 58.6% of companies disclosed getting higher prices while just 4.5% reported a decrease. The reading of 54.1 was a record high in data going back to July 2001. The numbers come a day after the New York Fed's Survey of Consumer Expectations for January saw a surprise decrease in short- and medium-term inflation expectations.
Even in Services, the Wholesale Price-Spike Is Now Relentlessly Red-Hot -- Prices of goods and services that consumer-facing companies are paying – and that they’re then trying to pass on to consumers – jumped by 1.0% in January from December, seasonally adjusted, and by 1.1% not seasonally adjusted, according to the Producer Price Index for Final Demand, released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics today. Prices for goods jumped 1.3% for the month, and prices for services jumped 0.7%. These input prices for consumer-facing companies have now bounced back to the top of the range of the red-hot producer-price inflation that began a year ago: Compared to January last year, the PPI Final Demand jumped by 9.8%, now for the third months in a row in the 10% range (chart below, red line). Without the volatile food and energy prices, the “Core” PPI Final Demand, jumped by 8.4% from a year ago, neck-to-neck with the record in the data going back to 2010, which was last in December at 8.5%. This is a sign that producers are now facing soaring costs beyond the volatile food and energy components (green line). And just to see the relentless cumulative effects of this red-hot PPI inflation, here is the actual index in terms of index value for PPI (red) and Core PPI (green), not in percent change. Note the massive increase that started in mid-2020: Producer price inflation has now seriously spread into services, with the PPI services jumping by 0.7% in January from December, same pace as in the prior month, but not driven this time by the usual suspects of transportation and warehouse services, which remained flat for the month, but by other services whose prices combined spiked by 0.9%. Some examples of these other services that had red-hot price increases (with percentage increase in January from December):
- Construction services (+3.6%)
- Retailing of apparel, jewelry, footwear, and accessories (+4.2%)
- Hospital outpatient care prices (+1.6%)
- Dental care (+1.8%)
- Machinery and vehicle wholesaling (+4.3%)
- Traveler accommodation services (5.4%)
- Portfolio management (+1.9%)
Some other services prices declined month-to-month, after having shot higher in prior months, as inflation jumps from category to category. This brought the year-over-year increase for the PPI Services to 7.8%, the second worst in the data, after the 8.1% spike in December, and the second month in a row in the 8% range, more than quadruple the pre-pandemic average of 1.8%: What we’re now seeing is that inflation further up in the pipeline – meaning cost increases for companies that sell to other companies – are hovering in the same red-hot territory for the third month in a row. In some categories, prices remained flat for the month or ticked down, while in others prices shot higher, in the now popular game of inflation Whac-A-Mole. And this inflation has spread far from raw materials and encompasses services. Over the next few months, companies will pass on these increased costs to consumers, and maybe plus some, now that they can. Many companies have touted their ability to do just that, passing on those higher costs plus some to consumers, as consumers are still willing, and in many cases eager, to pay the higher prices before they go even higher, in a sign that the inflationary mindset has gotten solidly entrenched with companies and consumers alike, which allows inflation to thrive.
LA Area Port Traffic: Record Inbound Traffic for January - Incoming port traffic is still backed up in the LA area. Container traffic gives us an idea about the volume of goods being exported and imported - and usually some hints about the trade report since LA area ports handle about 40% of the nation's container port traffic. The following graphs are for inbound and outbound traffic at the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach in TEUs (TEUs: 20-foot equivalent units or 20-foot-long cargo container).To remove the strong seasonal component for inbound traffic, the first graph shows the rolling 12-month average. On a rolling 12-month basis, inbound traffic was up 0.1% in January compared to the rolling 12 months ending in December. Outbound traffic was down 0.5% compared to the rolling 12 months ending the previous month. The 2nd graph is the monthly data (with a strong seasonal pattern for imports).Usually imports peak in the July to October period as retailers import goods for the Christmas holiday, and then decline sharply and bottom in February or March depending on the timing of the Chinese New Year. It seems likely there won't be a dip in February and March this year (like last year) with ships still backed up waiting to unload.Imports were up 2% YoY in January, and exports were down 5% YoY.This was a record for inbound traffic for January.
U.S. trade deficits hit record highs in 2021: More effective trade, industrial, and currency policies are needed to create more domestic manufacturing jobs - The U.S. goods trade deficit reached a record $1.09 trillion in 2021—an increase of $168.7 billion (18.3%) from the 2020 trade deficit—according tonew U.S. Census Bureau data. The broader goods and services deficit reached $859.1 billion in 2021, an increase of $182.5 billion (27.0%). These records were driven by a $576.5 billion increase in goods and services imports, including a $501.8 billion increase in goods imports.The surge in the U.S. goods trade deficit extends a surge in offshoring that has eliminated more than 5 million manufacturing jobs and nearly 70,000 factories since 1998, with overlooked costs for Black workers and other workers of color, as we describe in this new EPI report.While both imports and exports were depressed in 2020 due to the COVID recession, U.S. trade deficits increased sharply in both 2020 and 2021, as shown in the figure below. This is because the United States was unable to produce the goods needed to respond to the pandemic and to meet increased domestic demand for consumer goods.However, contrary to popular opinion, the growth in U.S. imports was not justcaused by increased domestic goods consumption coming out of the 2020 COVID recession. Imports explained more than 60% of the growth in U.S. goods consumption in 2021, and U.S. goods imports increased faster (21.3%) than domestic goods consumption (17.8%).Growing trade deficits have hurt U.S. manufacturing output and employment during the recovery, contributing to the net loss of 226,000 U.S. manufacturing jobs since December 2019. Federal relief spending is leaking away from domestic producers and supporting job creation in other countries.U.S. trade deficits are almost entirely explained (98.8%) by the deficit in manufactured products, as shown in the figure above, in part because the United States has become a net exporter of crude oil and refined petroleum products over the past two years. The U.S. trade deficit in manufactured goods is explained by China’s soaring global trade surplus, which hasincreased 60% since 2019, and by imports from other countries with structural trade surpluses, including Japan, South Korea, and the European Union.
Industrial Production Increased 1.4 Percent in January - From the Fed: Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization - In January, total industrial production increased 1.4 percent. Manufacturing output and mining production rose 0.2 percent and 1.0 percent, respectively. The index for utilities jumped 9.9 percent; after being held down in December by unusually mild weather, the demand for heating surged in January with the arrival of significantly colder-than-normal temperatures. At 103.5 percent of its 2017 average, total industrial production in January was 4.1 percent higher than its year-earlier level and 2.1 percent above its pre-pandemic (February 2020) reading.Capacity utilization for the industrial sector increased 1.0 percentage point in January to 77.6 percent, a rate that is 1.9 percentage points below its long-run (1972–2021) average. This graph shows Capacity Utilization. This series is up from the record low set in April 2020, and above the level in February 2020 (pre-pandemic).Capacity utilization at 77.6% is 1.9% below the average from 1972 to 2020. This was above consensus expectations. The second graph shows industrial production since 1967.Industrial production increased in January to 103.5. This is above the February 2020 level.The change in industrial production was above consensus expectations.
Empire State Mfg Survey: Activity Mostly Unchanged – This morning we got the latest Empire State Manufacturing Survey. The diffusion index for General Business Conditions at 3.1 was an increase of 3.8 from the previous month's -0.7. The Investing.com forecast was for a reading of 12.15.The Empire State Manufacturing Index rates the relative level of general business conditions in New York state. A level above 0.0 indicates improving conditions, below indicates worsening conditions. The reading is compiled from a survey of about 200 manufacturers in New York state.Here is the opening paragraph from the report. Business activity was little changed in New York State, according to firms responding to the February 2022 Empire State Manufacturing Survey. The headline general business conditions index moved up four points to 3.1. New orders and shipments held steady, and unfilled orders increased. Delivery times continued to lengthen. Labor market indicators pointed to a solid increase in employment and a longer average workweek. The prices paid index remained near its recent peak, and the prices received index reached a new record high. Plans for capital and technology spending remained strong. Looking ahead, while firms generally expect conditions to improve over the next six months, optimism dipped to its lowest level since mid-2020. [Full report]Here is a chart of the current conditions and its 3-month moving average, which helps clarify the trend for this extremely volatile indicator:
Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Increase to 248,000 -- The DOL reported: In the week ending February 12, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 248,000, an increase of 23,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 2,000 from 223,000 to 225,000. The 4-week moving average was 243,250, a decrease of 10,500 from the previous week's revised average. The previous week's average was revised up by 500 from 253,250 to 253,750. The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims since 1971. The dashed line on the graph is the current 4-week average. The four-week average of weekly unemployment claims decreased to 243,250.The previous week was revised up.Weekly claims were higher than the consensus forecast.
Just 3% of White Collar Workers Want a Full Office Return --Just 3% of white collar workers want to return to the office five days a week, according to a poll by management consultancy Advanced Workplace Associates, which warned employees will quit if bosses force them back full-time. A full 86% of employees want to work from home at least two days a week, the consultancy said after surveying nearly 10,000 people around the world across areas including finance, technology and energy. All age groups felt the same way, they added. Workers reported a preference for commuting into cities on Tuesdays, Wednesdays and Thursdays, raising the prospect of empty offices for the rest of the week.
How Young Workers Are Being Exploited in the COVID-19 Economy -Rather than provide the decent wages and health care needed to hire adults, more and more employers prefer to line their pockets on the backs of vulnerable teenagers like the young man who left Garrou’s team.The abuse skyrocketed as employers cut corners in the COVID-19 economy. A Walgreens in South Carolina flouted child labor laws by hiring a 12-year-old. Alabama chicken plants exploited migrant teens to keep production going. A 16-year-old boy tripped and fell 11 stories to his deathafter a contractor illegally put him to work on the roof of a Tennessee hotel.Other callous employers assigned teens prohibited work like operating potentially lethal machinery, climbing ladders and working as deckhands, while chains like Wendy’s and Chipotledrove youths to work ever longer hours, often past legal limits. And if all of that isn’t bad enough, some Republicans want to make it even easier for bosses to take advantage of young workers.Garrou said he’s grateful that Wisconsin Gov. Tony Evers on February 4 vetoed a bill, passed by the GOP-controlled legislature, that would have let some employers dramatically extend working hours for 14- and 15-year-olds across the state.Wisconsin law mandates quitting times of 7 p.m. during the school year and 9 p.m. during the summer for workers in that age group. But the Republicans’ bill—opposed by the Child Labor Coalition—would have allowed smaller businesses to work them until 11 p.m. as long as schools were closed the following day.“They’re trying to hold these kids hostage because they don’t want to pay adults a real wage,” noted Garrou, who in addition to coaching wrestling and other youth sports is the president of United Steelworkers (USW) Local 248 and safety coordinator at a Packaging Corp. of America facility in Wisconsin.As COVID-19 raged, millions of adults quit their jobs, fed up with greedy employers who not only failed to pay decent wages but also refused to provide the health care and sick leave they needed to survive the pandemic. Struggling to remain open, yet unwilling to meet adult workers’ needs, employers set their sights on teenagers. One restaurant chain CEO who’s hired dozens of teens put it this way: “We need bodies.”
In Texas, Prisons Without Air Conditioning Are Getting Hotter -- DURING THE YEAR Justin Phillips spent in an unair-conditioned segregation cell at the Coffield Unit, a state prison near Palestine, Texas, the soaring temperatures took a toll. All but eight days of June 2018 saw the heat index rise above 110 degrees. The blood pressure medicine Phillips takes to treat a rare kidney condition made him ill in high heat, so he would skip doses. At times, he said, guards failed to escort him to take his other medications. “Someone diagnosed with pauci-immune glomerulonephritis” — Phillips’s diagnosis — “could get in trouble in a hurry if they’re exposed to heat, regardless of medications,” said Aaron Bernstein, an expert on climate and health at Harvard University’s School of Public Health. With treatment, patients with the condition are expected to have a 75 percent five-year survival rate. By the time he left prison last year, Phillips had end-stage renal failure, and doctors told him the likelihood of surviving five years was 40 percent.“I feel like they gave me a possible death sentence,” said Phillips, who is now 42, of the Texas prison system. “I don’t think they care.”The Coffield Unit is among the hottest places in the nation for incarcerated people, according to an Intercept analysis of extreme heat in more than 6,500 jails, prisons, and detention centers across the U.S. — and it’s getting worse. As of 2020, Coffield was one of 21 Texas state prisons with no air conditioning, according to public records obtained by the Texas Prisons Air-Conditioning Advocates, an organization Phillips’s wife, Casey, founded.That he was transferred out of his sweltering cell at all, Justin said, was only due to Casey’s relentless advocacy. After months of calls, emails, and formal complaints, Justin was transferred to an air-conditioned unit. Four days before he was moved, the heat index outside the Coffield Unit was recorded at 127 degrees.Desperation spurred Casey Phillips to turn her work on her husband’s case into statewide activism. As an advocate, Casey reserves much of her ire for one man: “Honestly, it’s Greg Abbott that doesn’t care. It’s him,” she said, referring to Texas’s Republican governor. For more than a decade, Abbott has been a key figure stymying the fight for air conditioning in Texas carceral facilities. When he was the state attorney general, Abbott defended the Texas Department of Criminal Justice from heat lawsuits. Today he sets the agenda for legislative sessions — where heat-relief bills, like the ones pushed by advocates like Casey Phillips, go to die. Casey was blunt about Abbott’s role in the stalled legislation: “He’s the problem.”
These Busy NYC Bridges Are 'Structurally Deficient,' Study Finds There are 17,555 bridges in New York State. Six don't need repairs.— Nearly one in ten New York State bridges are structurally deficient and the most-traveled of them are all in New York City, a recent study shows.Hundreds of thousands of cars daily cross New York City bridges deemed "in poor or worse condition," according to aAmerican Road & Transportation Builders Association reporton crumbling transportation infrastructure released earlier this year.The Belt, Grand Central and Henry Hudson Parkways each have at least one structurally deficient bridge, as do the Brooklyn-Queens and Cross Bronx expressways, the study shows.These highways also see between 140,000 and a 200,000 vehicles cross over them every day.The city's Department of Transportation — which owns, operates, and maintains 789 bridges and tunnels — did not immediately respond to request for comment.But news reports and public documentation from the department show some of these highways have and will see renovations.The Transportation department invested $767 million in a Belt Parkway bridge reconstruction project that updated by 2019 five bridges including the Fresh Creek, Rockaway Parkway, Paerdegat Basin, Bay Ridge and Gerritsen Inlet, a 2019 report shows.And both the BQE and the Cross Bronx Expressway could see major renovations under the $1.2 trillion infrastructure billpassed in New York City in 2021.The problem of bridge repair is not New York City's alone, according to the study from the American Road and Transportation Builders Association, a lobbying group that gave more than $2.6 million to political candidates in recent years.The analyis — based on the U.S. Department of Transportation's National Bridge Inventory data — found the city's damaged bridges are among 1,672 bridges classified as structurally deficient statewide, about 9.5 percent of New York's stock, according to the analysis.According to the study, only six of New York's 17,555 bridges do not require any repairs, which would a total of $33.4 billion to complete.
9-year-old Houston girl dies after being shot by robbery victim: police --A 9-year-old girl in Houston, Texas, died on Tuesday after being shot in the head by a robbery victim who believed he was shooting at the person who had robbed him. As KTRK reported, Arlene Alvarez was shot in the head while her family was driving by a hold-up at an ATM at a Chase bank location on Monday night. According to the police, a man went up to a couple — a man and a woman — who were at the ATM in their vehicle and robbed them at gunpoint. The man got out of his car and shot at the robber as well as a pick-up he believed he was escaping with. However, the truck belonged to the Alvarez family who was going out for pizza for Valentines Day, KTRK reported.."Armando said that he instructed his family to get down, but Arlene was unable to hear him due to having her headphones in and watching a video. Arlene was taken to the hospital in critical condition.The Houston Police identified the shooter as Tony D. Earls, 41. He has been charged with aggravated assault. On Tuesday afternoon, the authorities shared that Arlene had been pronounced dead.This incident occurs just one week after another 9-year-old Houston girl was also shot in the head during an apparent road rage incident. Ashanti Grant was shot after her family is believed to have been caught in a race between two cars. The driver of one of the vehicles shot at Ashanti's family's car, hitting her in the head. She received emergency surgery at the Texas Children's Hospital and is currently in a medically-induced coma.
Why congressional Democrats should rethink their universal pre-k plan -With the State of the Union address approaching, congressional Democrats will likely refocus on President Biden’s Build Back Better program in hopes of passing a bill before November.Sen. Joe Manchin’s opposition to the $2.2 billion version of the plan that passed the House in November will force congressional Democrats to revise the legislation. A good place to start would be to rethink the universal pre-k program.President Biden proposed establishing universal pre-k for 3- and 4-year old children with $109 billion in new spending, citing evidence that expanding access to pre-k provides lasting benefits such as higher test scores through 8th grade and increased economic growth. But a new empirical analysis of Tennessee state pre-k program cast big doubts on the benefits of universal pre-k: “Data through sixth grade from state education records showed that the children randomly assigned to attend pre-K had lower state achievement test scores in third through sixth grades than control children, with the strongest negative effects in sixth grade. A negative effect was also found for disciplinary infractions, attendance, and receipt of special education services, with null effects on retention.”In other words, disadvantaged children who attended the state pre-k program had lower academic achievement and worse behavioral outcomes than their peers in the control group. This isn’t the first rigorous, long-term evaluation of a government preschool program that found disappointing results. A 2012 congressionally-mandated review of the federal Head Start program showed no lasting benefits for participating children by the end of third grade. Given the dismal long-term results of the Tennessee and Head Start programs, Congress should consider other ways to use government funding to help young disadvantaged children succeed. According to data from the Tennessee state government, the per-child cost of the voluntary pre-k program was roughly $4,800 as of 2017-18. The Department of Health and Human Services reported that Head Start cost more than $11,000 per child as of 2019.Rather than funding these ineffective programs, policymakers should give pre-k subsidies directly to the parents of low-income children. For example, the government could award children a Head Start education savings account (ESA) that parents could use for preschool or save those funds for future education expenses.
Michele Tafoya on critical race theory: 'Breaks my heart' kids taught 'that skin color matters' -Former NFL sideline reporter Michele Tafoya weighed in on critical race theory during a Fox News appearance, saying she's disheartened her children are being taught "that skin color matters." Tafoya, appearing on Fox News's "Tucker Carlson Tonight" to discuss her shift from sports to politics, criticized the idea that critical race theory, a decades-old area of academia that examines the influence of race on U.S. law, could be included in school curricula. Several GOP-led states have moved in recent years to ban critical race theory from being taught in schools, though there is disagreement over whether it is present in secondary education. “It breaks my heart that my kids are being taught that skin color matters. And to me if you want white people to step up, I was stepping up when I address the school and said, 'So why are we having these picnics for families of color?'” Tafoya told host Tucker Carlson on Wednesday night. “Why are we separating our kids? If the world is integrated, let's continue that and and have everyone find out what we all have in common, not just what we have in common with people who look like us.” Tafoya, a longtime sideline reporter for NBC Sports’ “Sunday Night Football,” announced on Monday her retirement from sports reporting to serve as co-chair of Kendall Qualls's Republican gubernatorial bid in Minnesota. She is slated to participate in the Conservative Political Action Conference later this month.
Families sue W.Va. school district over Christian assembly (AP) - A group of parents and students are suing a West Virginia school district for allowing an evangelical preacher to hold a religious revival assembly during the school day earlier this month that some students were required to attend.The suit was filed in U.S. District Court on behalf of families by the Freedom From Religion Foundation.It alleges the Cabell County school system has a systematic history of disregarding the religious freedom of its students and instituting Christian religious practices.The lawsuit says that on Feb. 2, two Huntington High School teachers escorted their entire classes to an assembly hosted by evangelical preacher Nik Walker.
School apologizes for 'Stuff Some Adults Don't Want You to Read' sign in library - A Virginia high school apologized for placing a sign reading “Stuff Some Adults Don’t Want You to Read” among a display of books in its library as a number of schools and communities have debated the teaching or banning of books that address subjects such as sexual orientation and race. The sign was displayed in the library at Langley High School in McLean, Va. In photos posted on Twitter, it could be seen in front of a display of books including "Roots of Racism" and "Maus." The sign provoked strong reactions online. “This sign from Langley HS in Fairfax County. Wrong on so many fronts,” Pat Herrity, a member of the Fairfax County Board of Supervisors, tweeted on Tuesday. “[Fairfax County Public Schools] doubling down on their big FU to parents. This display was for a rising 8th grader parents night. What books a library holds is debatable, but this is just ‘nah nah!’ childishness,” Carrie Lukas, president of the Independent Women’s Forum, a conservative activist group, tweeted a day earlier. Langley High School Principal Kimberly Greer apologized for the sign in a letter to parents. "The sign was incongruent with the beliefs of our school and our school division. Poor judgement was used in its display, and for this I take full responsibility," she wrote, NBC Washington reported.. A spokesperson for Fairfax County Public Schools told The Hill in a statement that the sign has since been taken down.
Despite massive opposition, Oakland, California, school board votes to close seven schools - Early Wednesday morning, the Oakland Unified School District (OUSD) Board of Education voted 4-2-1 to close seven public schools, merge an additional two, and reduce the size of two more by cutting grades over the next two years. Citing a more than $50 million budget deficit and a decline in student enrollment, the decision came despite mass opposition from parents, students and community members. On the day of the vote, more than 2,000 viewers logged in to the virtual board meeting and hundreds raised their hands to speak during public comment. During the four hours of public comment, all speakers unanimously opposed the school closures. The original resolution on OUSD school closures sought to permanently close or merge a total of 16 primary schools, but that number was reduced to seven closures and two mergers by next school year after a series of amendments were introduced in the face of mass opposition. Educators, parents and students should have no illusions that the amendments will prevent further cuts and closures. Mass demonstrations throughout Oakland opposing the school closures and budget cuts occurred in the lead up to the vote and continued over the past week. On Friday, a major walkout took place at Oakland Technical High School in opposition to the budget cuts. Hundreds of students, educators and families marched to the district offices. Students at Los Altos High School in nearby Santa Clara County held a march in solidarity with the Oakland residents opposing the closures. Students and teachers pointed to California’s current multibillion-dollar education budget surplus as a source of funds to pay for the budget deficit in Oakland. Multiple school board members, the Oakland Education Association (OEA) and the organization Reparations for Black Students in Oakland (RBSO) have attempted to present the Oakland school closures entirely in racial terms. However, the racialist narrative being put forward has very clear politics which serve only to funnel genuine opposition to school budget cuts back into the Democratic party–-the same party which has been at the forefront of attacks on public education in California. The race-based analysis behind school closures obscures the fundamental class issues that underlie the attacks on public education and social inequality impacting millions of working-class families of all races across the US and internationally.
Levi's brand president says she resigned after pressure over views on COVID-19 school closures --Former Levi Strauss & Co. brand president and U.S. athlete Jennifer Seysaid in a new Substack post that she decided to leave Levi's after allegedly receiving pressure from the company to stop publicly expressing her views regarding COVID-related school closures.Sey, the mother of four children, wrote that she turned down a $1 million severance package because it would come with a non-disclosure agreement. "The money would be very nice. But I just can't do it," she said Monday in her post, which was published in a Substack newsletter run by former New York Times columnist Bari Weiss. Sey, a vocal critic of school closures related to COVID-19, wrote that she felt "the draconian policies would cause the most harm to those least at risk, and the burden would fall heaviest on disadvantaged kids in public schools, who need the safety and routine of school the most."According to Sey, her story about moving to Denver so her child could to go to school in person — which she said was picked up by national media and led to her appearing on Laura Ingraham's show on Fox News — was "the last straw." The former gymnast wrote that other Levi's employees criticized her for her views on the issue. She alleged that the head of diversity, equity and inclusion at the company requested that she do an "apology tour," saying that the main complaint against her was that she "was not a friend of the Black community at Levi’s.""I was told to say that 'I am an imperfect ally.' (I refused.)," Sey wrote.Sey, who started working at the company in 1999, added that each day "a dossier of my tweets and all of my online interactions were sent to the CEO by the head of corporate communications." She also alleged that she was told during a dinner with the company's CEO Chip Bergh — who she referred to only as "the CEO" in her post — that she was "on track to become the next CEO of Levi's" and that "all I had to do was stop talking about the school thing."
College says students yelled racist remarks at Howard University women's lacrosse team --Presbyterian College said it is investigating an incident in which its students yelled racist remarks at Howard University's women’s lacrosse team during a match. In a statement on Sunday, the private South Carolina-based liberal arts college said that an hour before its matchup against Howard, a group of Presbyterian students outside of the stadium yelled racist remarks toward the players and coaches. Presbyterian said its administration has begun gathering facts and reaching out to those directly impacted, adding those found responsible will face consequences for the reported actions. “First, let us be clear: No visitor to our campus should be subject to that kind of treatment, and this type of behavior is completely unacceptable. It is in no way aligned with the expectations and values of the college. We apologize to the Howard University women’s lacrosse coach and her players, and we deeply regret the experience they had on our campus,” the school said in a statement. “We must hold ourselves accountable and do better as a community to ensure all visitors to our campus are treated with dignity and respect.” USA Lacrosse board member Brian Silcott wrote in a Twitter post that his wife, Karen Healy-Silcott, who coaches Howard’s women’s lacrosse team, was met with racial slurs coming from a group of male students at the game. In a statement to the Washington Post, a Howard University spokesperson said the school is conducting interviews about the incident. “I am deeply troubled that some of our student-athletes were subjected to slurs and abusive language before the women’s lacrosse match on Friday vs. Presbyterian College. Howard does not condone such disgraceful behavior in any form, and the use of harmful language such as this runs counter to the values of this institution, which celebrates respect, diversity, and inclusion on its campus,” said HU athletic director Kery Davis.
Howard University targeted by another bomb threat--Howard University on Monday was targeted by another bomb threat, with the school issuing a shelter-in-place order for its campus in the morning."A shelter-in-place order has been issued following a bomb threat against the main campus. Campus perimeter is being swept by municipal and federal law enforcement officials," the Howard University Department of Public Safety tweeted. Around noon, roughly two hours after the shelter-in-place order was issued, the Howard University Twitter account announced that authorities had issued an "ALL CLEAR" in the investigation into the bomb threat."We appreciate the patience of our entire university community as we again are confronted with the inconvenience and anxiety of a threat like this," the school's department of public safety tweeted after the all-clear was given.The latest threat came less than a month after numerous historically Black colleges and universities across the U.S., including Howard, were targeted by bomb threats. Bowie State University, Southern University, Bethune-Cookman University, Albany State University, Howard University and Delaware State University all reported receiving bomb threats on Jan. 31. Just a few weeks prior to the spate of threats, Howard had received another bomb threat in January along with other HBCUs.No bombs were discovered in any of the incidents. Shortly after a bomb threat in early February, the Howard University Board of Trustees released a statement saying, "There is no place for the invocation of fear or threats of violence within and beyond the walls of our campus. Let us rededicate ourselves to creating a culture of civility at Howard University and coming together as a community to banish hate from our midst and from the world around us."
How Corporations Use Public School Workforce ‘Pipelines’ to Harvest Students' Data and Train Narrowly Skilled, Exploitable Staff -Nearly all public schools in the United States (98 percent) offer some form of career and technical education (CTE), and these programs, which were previously called vocational education or voc-ed, aren’t new to public schools. But what is new is the extent to which CTE programs have become exploited by big businesses and powerful actors in the marketplace to serve their own needs rather than those of students.With the 2018 revision to the Carl D. Perkins Career and Technical Education (Perkins IV) Act of 2006 (the main source of federal funding for CTE training)—which was replaced by the Strengthening Career and Technical Education for the 21st Century (Perkins V) Act of 2018—and other legislation, there are new pressures that these “programs of study must align with industry” and, as a result, ensure CTE is opening the door for businesses to exploit education resources and get unfettered access to students beginning as early as kindergarten.From January to June 2021, we (the authors of this article) carried out extensive research(currently awaiting peer review) across the United States, which involved speaking with families, children, and teachers to understand their concerns related to CTE and the web of policy that is paving the way for powerful corporations and technology companies to influence school curriculum design and the future of millions of children and young people.Specifically, we looked at the gradual annexation of CTE by big corporations through their development of tech-talent and data extraction pipelines. We identified that advanced digital systems further enable data extraction for student profiling and prediction, which can lead to the development of worker pipelines and a hyperspecialized career pathway for students. Career tracking through the use of these data extractive technologies can ultimately lead to locking children in prescribed futures that ultimately lead to long-term job insecurity.We interviewed families, children, and teachers from Virginia, Colorado, Tennessee, Ohio, Utah, and New York and analyzed curriculum proposals for CTE programs from big tech companies, presentations by education authorities, news reports, policy documents, white papers, and meeting agendas.Our conclusion is that the increasing influence of corporations in CTE will ultimately lead to a more oppressive learning environment in which powerful corporations will exert more influence over what children are taught in schools and how they will be trained for their future work lives. Further, the potentially harmful influence corporations have in public schools is being intensified by data extracting systems of precision that use predictive analytics that students and parents generally don’t understand, can’t access, and have no personal control over.
Ohio study links stimulus checks to record increase in opioid deaths - Economic stimulus checks meant to aid in the recovery of the COVID-19 pandemic contributed significantly to the record surge in Americans who died of opioid overdoses, according to a study by the Ohio Attorney General’s Center for the Future of Forensic Science. “The link between pandemic relief money and opioid overdose deaths is now evident,” Attorney General Dave Yost said. “The intent was to help Americans navigate this deadly pandemic, but it also fueled a tidal wave of overdoses.” The study, using data from the Ohio Department of Health, found that spikes in opioid-related overdose deaths during the second quarter of 2020 coincided with delivery of federal stimulus checks to the public. In the second quarter of 2020, more Ohioans died of opioid overdoses than at any point since 2010. “These spikes kind of come up where one month you won’t really have anything and then suddenly a month later you’re just running almost every day,” said Lawrence County Coroner Dr. Benjamin Mack. Mack says it’s been in the back of his mind that the overdoses he sees in the county could be linked to the stimulus checks, and this study confirms his suspicions. “Last year was by far the busiest year we’ve ever seen as far as overdose deaths in Lawrence County,” he said. He says overdoses increased by 50% between 2019 and 2020 and then another 50% from 2020 to 2021. “We’ve actually had to increase our staffing to help compensate to do each case its right due diligence in doing the investigations and coming up with more information,” Mack said. The study shows for 2020, the median opioid overdose deaths numbers for weeks 1–16 and weeks 17–32 were 68.5 and 101, respectively. “Definitely not the intention but it’s just an unforeseen consequence when money gets put out into the community people don’t always use their money wisely. They allow their cravings to overcome their wallets,” Mack said. The study also showed fentanyl was present in 94% of overdose deaths in the second quarter of 2020. Mack said this was also seen in Lawrence County, saying all but one overdose death was linked to the opioid. “Fentanyl just doesn’t give you that second chance. It hits so hard so quick that Narcan doesn’t always seem to work,” he said. “It just overwhelms the body, and you can’t breathe. Your heart stops, and it’s a game over.” Mack says currently overdose deaths in the county are slightly down, but he’s worried that will change when tax refund checks are sent out.
More doctors are chasing a new — but rare — way of getting paid to keep patients healthy, and it could be the future of healthcare -- Under the current system, it's up to patients to go out and find the right medical care, Steer said. A patient dealing with multiple chronic illnesses, like diabetes and chronic kidney disease, shoulders the arduous and expensive task of navigating myriad medical professionals, he said.So Balboa, which employs 60 nephrologists, is transitioning toward a way of getting paid in which it would receive fixed fees up front to manage the total costs of care for its patients. That would put the responsibility on the doctors to anticipate what a patient needs, from medical services to other necessities, like housing and transportation, and then line it up, Steer said.If Balboa does a good job, the patient benefits and the clinicians can pocket any money saved. But if it lets a patient slip through the cracks, it's on the hook financially. Balboa's starting with taking full financial responsibility for 3,000 patients under a new federal program, but its goal is to move in that direction for all of its 30,000 patients, Steer said."When we're paid a fixed fee every month to provide care to a group of patients, we can make the investments that we need to be able to give patients that need more care, more care," he said.Balboa is among a growing number of medical specialists reimagining how they deliver care under new payment models. Groups of doctors treating kidney disease, cancer, heart problems, and other high-cost conditions are entering contracts with insurers or primary-care clinics in which they're rewarded for improving their patients' health and keeping the cost of care low.It's a stark departure from the way US doctors are usually paid. Traditionally, they receive fees for every patient visit, procedure, or test, but that system doesn't encourage prevention and has led to runaway US healthcare costs, unnecessary care, and inconsistent quality.
New Evidence Suggests a Lack of Cost-Shifting in Prescription Drug Markets - Recent legislative efforts to regulate drug prices have reignited debates about the interaction between price setting in public insurance programs and commercial market spending. In particular, some worry that proposals to regulate drug prices in Medicare will cause drug manufacturers to “make up” lost revenues in the unconstrained commercial market. In this piece, we summarize arguments for and against this theory and present suggestive quantitative evidence from a related context. The allegation that public insurance price reductions will cause compensatory behavior in the private sector is hardly new in health care. Researchers and practitioners have long debated the existence of “cost shifting” within the provider market—the theory that if public payers reduce payment rates, providers will raise prices on private payers to cover their costs. Economic theory predicts that such behavior is unlikely since it implies providers “leave dollars on the table” in negotiations with private insurers prior to public payer price reductions. Indeed, most recent empirical evidence confirms this, or in some cases, finds that public and private prices move in parallel. The analogous theory most commonly posited in the drug market is more accurately characterized as a “revenue targeting” strategy, where drug makers alter behavior to achieve a desired level of total product revenues as opposed to covering costs (since revenues of commercially successful products meaningfully exceed fixed costs and variable costs are often modest). Proponents of this theory implicitly argue that there are features of the drug market that make this kind of compensatory behavior more likely. In particular, they emphasize that drug makers have both intellectual property protection over their products and often face relatively inelastic demand, conferring significant pricing power. In addition, they often point to an empirical reality of drug markets—that the list and net prices of brand drugs increase after a product has been launched—as evidence of unconstrained pricing power. Opponents of this theory instead argue that these features do not imply the existence of untapped market power and that it is unlikely manufacturers would willingly leave any such market power unused. In particular, inelastic demand and intellectual property protection are features of the current market, meaning that whatever pricing power they convey is already present. Moreover, increasing pricing over time is consistent with profit maximizing behavior in markets where drug makers aim to increase utilization in the early years of a product’s launch and increase prices as patient populations become more established.That said, we were not aware of any research that bears directly on this debate. In an effort to inform discussions, we (jointly with Conrad Milhaupt) considered whether drug makers engaged in compensatory behavior in a similar setting—when revenues fell owing to the entry of lower-cost biosimilar drugs in the European Union (EU) market, but where drug makers retained monopoly rights in the unregulated portion of the US market. Our analysis focused on four large biologic products that met all sample criteria.
New Study Explains How Coronavirus Stays Airborne Longer Than Previously Thought -- Yves Smith -- From a peer-reviewed study in Eurosurveillance: The closed event was held in a separate room (ca 145 m2) in a restaurant in Oslo from 18:00 to 22:30, after which the venue was opened to the public from 22:30 to 03:00. A pre-party had been arranged for the Christmas party attendees at a separate venue, after which they were transported by private buses to the restaurant… After detection of the outbreak on 30 November, all attendees at the party were requested by the municipality doctor in Oslo to self-quarantine at home for 10 days and to immediately take a PCR test. Those who tested positive were required to remain in isolation for at least 7 days [3]. In addition, a public message was released on 1 December asking anyone who had been at the venue from 22:30 on 26 November to 03:00 on 27 November to get tested by PCR as soon as possible, regardless of symptoms.The company has a private room to itself from 6:30 PM till 11:30 PM…and had had a preparty before that. So the odds of anyone from the company party staying on were not high.In other words, if stale Omicron-y air is what made the new arrivals sick, it had to have hung in the air for a while. Yet the old prevailing belief was viral nasties in aerosol form, even if they remained in the air, dried out pretty pronto and became harmless. But is that correct?A new article in MedicalXpress (hat tip Robert M) recaps a new study in International Communications in Heat and Mass Transfer by scientists at the Department of Energy’s Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (as in not by medical scientist….due say to intellectual capture?). Sadly I can’t find it online, but the writeup is thorough, so we’ll rely on that and look for the Internet versions to surface. The key finding, and it has implications well beyond Covid, is that mucus coatings greatly increase how long airborne viruses remain viable.So this finding also serves as a reminder that Covid deserves a lot more respect than many, starting with most public health officials, give it. From the MedicalXPress article:A modeling study raises questions about how far respiratory droplets, like those that transmit the virus that causes COVID-19, can travel before becoming harmless. Can the airborne particles that carry the virus remain infectious not just for a few feet but rather more than 200 feet, farther than the length of a hockey rink?…The PNNL team took a long look at the mucus that coats the respiratory droplets that people spew from their lungs. Scientists know that mucus allows many viruses to travel further than they otherwise would, enabling them to journey from one person to another.Conventional wisdom has been that very small, aerosolized droplets of just a few microns, like those produced in the lungs, dry out in air almost instantly, becoming harmless. But the PNNL team found that mucus changes the equation.The team found that the mucus shell that surrounds respiratory droplets likely reduces the evaporation rate, increasing the time that viral particles within the droplets are kept moist. Since enveloped viruses like SARS-CoV-2 have a fatty coating that must be kept moist for the virus to be infectious, the slower evaporation allows viral particles to be infectious longer.The team estimates that droplets encased in mucus could remain moist for up to 30 minutes and travel up to about 200 feet.
CDC unveils its latest weapon in Covid-19 detection: wastewater – For more than a year, Alexandria Boehm, a professor of civil engineering at Stanford University, and her team of 45 people at the Sewer Coronavirus Alert Network, or SCAN, have been collecting and testing daily sludge samples from wastewater processing plants across Northern California, hunting for fragments of the new coronavirus. Wastewater-based epidemiology has proven to be so reliable in dozens of pilot projects across the US that the government has invested millions to create the National Wastewater Surveillance System, or NWSS, a network of 400 testing sites spread across 19 states that is coordinated by the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Boehm's SCAN is part of that network, which has been quietly operating behind the scenes, generating data for public health departments across the country, since September 2020. For the first time, the CDC has published data that looks at how much coronavirus is turning up in the country's wastewater. It added this testing data to its Covid-19 dashboard. Tests show that there's been a decrease in the amount of virus at two-thirds of the 255 sites reporting data from the latest 15-day period. The NWSS includes 400 sites overall, and more than 500 more will begin submitting data in the coming weeks, the CDC says. Data from anywhere with a sewer connection SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes Covid-19, is encased in an oily envelope. After it invades our bodies and begins to furiously clone itself, some of those copies are shed into our intestines, where the fatty parts of the virus stick to the fats in stool. When we poop, genetic material from the virus gets flushed down the toilet into the wastewater stream, where it can be detected by the same kinds of tests labs use to detect the virus from nasal swabs: real time polymerase chain reaction tests, or RT-PCR. This kind of testing is highly sensitive. It can pick up the presence of the virus when just one person out of 100,000 in a given area, or sewershed, is infected. And because wastewater testing doesn't depend on people to realize they're sick and seek out a test, or even to have symptoms at all, it's often the earliest warning a community has that wave of Covid-19 infections is on the way. The CDC estimates that it takes five to seven days after a toilet flushes to get the wastewater data to its COVID Tracker, and and the samples typically turn positive in an area four to six days before clinical cases show up. "As long as people are using a toilet that's connected to a sewer, we can get information on those cases in that community," said Amy Kirby, a CDC microbiologist who leads the NWSS project.
Immunological dysfunction persists for 8 months following initial mild-to-moderate SARS-CoV-2 infection – Abstract: A proportion of patients surviving acute coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) infection develop post-acute COVID syndrome (long COVID (LC)) lasting longer than 12 weeks. Here, we studied individuals with LC compared to age- and gender-matched recovered individuals without LC, unexposed donors and individuals infected with other coronaviruses. Patients with LC had highly activated innate immune cells, lacked naive T and B cells and showed elevated expression of type I IFN (IFN-β) and type III IFN (IFN-λ1) that remained persistently high at 8 months after infection. Using a log-linear classification model, we defined an optimal set of analytes that had the strongest association with LC among the 28 analytes measured. Combinations of the inflammatory mediators IFN-β, PTX3, IFN-γ, IFN-λ2/3 and IL-6 associated with LC with 78.5–81.6% accuracy. This work defines immunological parameters associated with LC and suggests future opportunities for prevention and treatment.
Long COVID fatigue may not be a heart or lung problem, Yale doctors say — Many patients suffering from long COVID-19 find they are feeling overly fatigued after exercising, but it may not be the result of damage to their hearts or lungs. Researchers at the Winchester Center for Lung Disease’s Post COVID-19 Recovery Program at Yale New Haven Hospital have found that much of the time extreme fatigue from exercising has to do with the inability of the muscles to take up oxygen from the blood. When cardiopulmonary tests don’t reveal a problem with the heart or lungs, “it’s not that they’re making things up,” said Dr. Inderjit Singh, a pulmonologist at Yale New Haven Hospital and lead author of a study about acute intolerance to exertion. It may be that the muscles are unable to extract oxygen from the blood. The study appears in the journal Chest. “There’s some thought COVID can cause some chronic clots or micro-clots in the lungs,” said Dr. Phillip Joseph, also a pulmonologist at Yale New Haven Hospital and an author of the study. “Or it can cause myocarditis, which is an inflammation of the heart muscles, and heart failure can be a result of that. So ruling those out are also important.” Symptoms include shortness of breath, fatigue, palpitations and chest discomfort. “And so these folks get lung function tests, chest X-rays, CT scans, echocardiograms, all of which are either normal or unremarkable or do not explain the degree of exertional intolerance,” Singh said. The test run at the clinic, an invasive cardiopulmonary test, is able to rule out heart or lung damage. “It is because they have a limitation that resides in the inability to extract oxygen in the peripheral tissues, for example, the muscles,” Singh said. “There’s only a few centers in the country that does this test. We’re the only one in the tri-state area.” A normal pulmonary exercise test consists of riding a stationary bicycle with a mouthpiece that measures oxygen consumption. In the invasive test, a catheter is placed down the right side of the neck into the heart and lung. Another catheter is placed in the wrist. Blood is drawn, “so we’re able to calculate the extraction of oxygen in the other tissues, for example, the muscle,” Singh said. Normally, a patient should be able to extract 75 percent of the oxygen from their blood, but the long COVID patients are able to extract only 50 percent, Joseph said.
New research points to possible reason for long COVID - Many symptoms of post-COVID syndrome could be caused by lasting damage sustained to one of the most important nerves in the human body during initial infection with coronavirus, new research has suggested. The vagus nerve is the 10th cranial nerve and is the longest and most complex of all of them. It runs from the brain throughout the entirety of the face and chest, reaching the abdomen. The vagus nerve serves as the main connection between the brain and the gastrointestinal tract, sending back information about the state of the inner organs. As well as being crucial to the gastrointestinal system, as it controls the transfer of food from the mouth to the stomach and moves food through the intestines, the vagus nerve is also responsible for multiple other processes, such as controlling the heart rate, sweat production and the gag reflex, as well as certain muscle movements in the mouth, including those necessary for speech. New research set to be presented at this year’s European Congress of Clinical Microbiology and Infectious Diseases (ECCMID) investigates the connection between post-COVID syndrome, also known as long COVID, and the vagus nerve. The pilot study's findings will be presented at the congress in Lisbon from April 23-26. The study suggests that SARS-CoV-2-mediated vagus nerve dysfunction (VND) could be responsible for many of the symptoms of long COVID, including persistent voice problems, difficulty swallowing, dizziness, abnormally high heart rate (tachycardia), low blood pressure and digestive issues. Long COVID is a condition characterized by persistent and continuous health issues caused by COVID-19 after the patient has recovered from the initial infections. It can affect nearly every organ in the body, as well as cause a range of mental-health and nervous-system disorders. Some of the most common symptoms of long COVID include fatigue, headaches, shortness of breath, loss of smell and taste and muscle weakness.
Long COVID-19 less likely in vaccinated, UK health agency says -- The United Kingdom Health Security Agency (UKHSA) on Tuesday released a new review of 15 studies finding that "long COVID-19" — COVID-19 symptoms that develop after acute coronavirus infection — is less likely to affect those who have been vaccinated against the virus.According to the review, the UKHSA concluded that people who have received at least two doses of the Moderna, Pfizer or AstraZeneca COVID-19 vaccines or one dose of the Johnson & Johnson vaccine are half as likely to get long COVID-19 compared to their unvaccinated counterparts, Reuters reported."These studies add to the potential benefits of receiving a full course of the COVID-19 vaccination," Mary Ramsay, head of immunization at UKHSA, reportedly said. "Vaccination is the best way to protect yourself from serious symptoms when you get infected and may also help to reduce the longer-term impact."Four studies connected to the review compared the symptoms of people before and after vaccination.Three other studies revealed that after vaccination, participants reported improvements in their long COVID-19 symptoms as opposed to the symptoms worsening, the news outlet noted.Another three studies reportedly determined that people who got vaccinated showed improved long COVID-19 symptoms compared to those who did not get vaccinated at all.Symptoms of long COVID-19 include memory issues, brain fog and fatigue, according to Reuters. The news outlet also noted that UKHSA said that around 2 percent of the U.K. population reported such symptoms, with joint pain, shortness of breath and fatigue being the most prevalent.Britain is currently seeing an average of about 50,000 coronavirus cases daily.U.K. Prime Minister Boris Johnson announced last week that self-isolation rules in Britain could soon come to an end as cases decline. “Provided the current encouraging trends in the data continue, it is my expectation that we will be able to end the last domestic restrictions — including the legal requirement to self-isolate if you test positive — a full month early,” Johnson said at the time.
Risk factors for long COVID: What we know -- According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), long COVID is a condition in which COVID-19-related health issues last 4 weeks or more after contracting the virus that causes the disease.Even those who did not have COVID-19 symptoms immediately after contracting SARS-CoV-2 can develop long COVID. Symptoms may last for several weeks or months.Research suggests that at least 54% of those who develop COVID-19 experience long COVID. According to a 2021 meta-analysis, the most common outcomes and symptoms among those with long COVID include:
- chest imaging abnormalities for 62.2% of people
- general functional impairments for 44%
- fatigue or muscle weakness for 37.5%
- general pain for 32.4%
- generalized anxiety disorder for 29.6%
- sleep disorders for 27%
- difficulty concentrating for 23.8%
- brain fog
- headache
- skin rashes
- fever
- changes to the sense of smell or taste
- diarrhea
Research is emerging on risk factors for long COVID. To help parse through these studies,MNT has summarized some of the main findings so far. We also spoke with three experts on the best ways to mitigate the risk factors for long COVID.One study that followed 309 participants for 2–3 months after contracting SARS-CoV-2 identified four factors that increase a person’s risk of long COVID:
- a higher viral load
- the presence of certain autoantibodies that mistakenly attack the body’s own tissues
- reactivation of the Epstein-Barr virus (EBV)
- having type 2 diabetes
However, the study authors noted that their research might not be conclusive as they could not confirm causation, and their sample size makes it difficult to establish any specific predictors. Nevertheless, other studies support their findings. One study found that SARS-CoV-2 may reactivate EBV and, in turn, lead to long COVID symptoms. Around 95% of the world’s population carries this virus, although EBV largely lays dormant and is asymptomatic.
Moderna's CEO says it's 'reasonable' to suggest the COVID-19 pandemic is in its final stages - Moderna CEO Stéphane Bancel has said it is "reasonable" to consider the COVID-19 pandemic almost over. Speaking to CNBC's Squawk Box Asia on Wednesday about whether he believed that the pandemic was in its final stages, Bancel said: "I think that is a reasonable scenario." Bancel said he thinks there was "about an 80% chance" that as the virus evolves, it will become "less and less virulent." If this were the case, Bancel still expects people older than fifty, and those at high risk of severe illness, to be boosted against COVID-19 each year. "This virus is going to stay with humans forever, like flu, and we'd have to live with it," he said. But Bancel cautioned that there remained a chance – which he pegged at 20% – that the next mutation could make the virus more virulent than the Omicron variant. "I think we got lucky as a world that Omicron was not very virulent, but still we are losing thousands of people dying every day around the planet," he said. "The virus is unpredictable." Experts may agree on the virus' unpredictability, but not necessarily on Bancel's more optimistic prediction. Francois Balloux, director at the University College London Genetics Institute, said on Twitter Wednesday that there was "no meaningful theory" that the virus that causes COVID-19 was mutating to be inherently less virulent. Meanwhile, Ashish Jha, dean at the Brown University School of Public Health, said on Twitter Wednesday that there was "no guarantee" future variants would be less virulent. "A large surge can be deadly," he said, adding that, ahead of any future variant, the focus should be on getting more people vaccinated and boosted.
Future COVID variants could be more deadly, scientists warn - New COVID-19 variants that emerge could cause more serious illness and fatalities than previous strains, some scientists warn. Though the Omicron variant had milder symptoms, that may not be the case for future strains, experts told the Guardian.“There will be more variants after Omicron and if they are more transmissible they will dominate. In addition, they may cause different patterns of illness, in other words they may turn out to be more lethal or have more long-term consequences,” David Nabarro, a special envoy on Covid-19 for the World Health Organization, told the outlet. Warwick University Professor Lawrence Young denied that there’s a “linear evolution of the virus from Alpha to Beta to Delta to Omicron.” “The idea that virus variants will continue to get milder is wrong. A new one could turn out to be even more pathogenic than the Delta variant, for example,” he told the Observer. Experts said it’s impossible to predict where the next variant will emerge from — or its characteristics. “The Omicron variant did not come from the Delta variant. It came from a completely different part of the virus’s family tree,” Edinburgh University Professor Mark Woolhouse told the Guardian.“And since we don’t know where in the virus’s family tree a new variant is going to come from, we cannot know how pathogenic it might be. It could be less pathogenic but it could, just as easily, be more pathogenic,” The uncertainty about future variants should be factored into whether countries lift restrictions that were reimposed during the Omicron wave, experts said. “It would be prudent to encourage people to protect themselves and others consistently. An approach that does not do this would be a gamble with potentially severe consequences,” Nabarro said.“I cannot see any upsides to such a gamble. The pandemic has a long way to go and – as is the case since it started – people and their leaders will influence its long-term impact through actions they take now.” The warnings come after Dr. Anthony Fauci suggested last week that the US is nearing the end of the “full-blown” phase of the pandemic and that virus-related restrictions may no longer be necessary.
Is The Omicron Wave Finally Over? US Cases Fall To One-Fifth Of Holiday Peak - As more states abandon their masking mandates (while LA County bizarrely refuses to budge), it's becoming increasingly clear that - just like last year - the omicron driven COVID wave that started just after Thanksgiving is finally coming to an end. Let's take a look at the latest numbers. As more states abandon their mask mandates, California dropped its mandate yesterday, unleashing Bay Area residents from a mask mandate that they have been living with since March of 2020. "I'm for no mask," one San Francisco resident, Nichole, told Fox News. "I think no matter what, everybody is going to encounter the virus." "We have to start somewhere," she continued. "We can't be masked up forever." The US is averaging 151,056 new COVID cases per day over the last week, according to data from Johns Hopkins University. But while the number of newly reported COVID cases and hospitalizations keep tumbling, more than 2K Americans are still dying every day from COVID. Still, the drop in cases is notable for its speed: cases have dropped 44% from last week. After the latest drop, new COVID cases have plummeted to less than one-fifth of the peak of more than 800K cases per day a month ago. For the first time since Christmas, the US reported fewer than 200K new COVID cases a day on Friday. COVID hospitalizations are also declining, with 82,842 patients currently hospitalized with COVID, according to data from the US Department of Health and Human Services. That's a 23% drop from last week. But as far as the government sees it, the job is unfortunately not yet done: While most Americans, some 64%, have been fully vaccinated, only 28% have received a booster dose, according to CDC data. That's lower than the rate in Canada. Over the past week, case rates were highest in Alaska, Kentucky, Mississippi and West Virginia -- with each state reporting more than 100 new cases for every 100,000 residents each day. The rates of new cases were lowest in Maryland, New Jersey, Kansas and New York -- each reporting less than 25 new cases for every 100,000 residents each day.
“Endemic” COVID-19 may lead to 250,000 deaths each year in the US - The silence on the number of COVID-19 deaths occurring in the US is chilling. The entire state and federal apparatus has shifted gears to declare COVID endemic and to end all mandates that had provided the population with a modicum of protection against infection and death. It bears reviewing Tuesday’s statistics from various COVID trackers. BNO News reported that 3,349 more Americans died from COVID, with a seven-day average of 2,488 deaths every day. The Johns Hopkins COVID tracker placed the figure of additional deaths at 2,777, with a seven-day average of just under 2,000 per day. The New York Times’ COVID tracker reported the fourteen-day daily average of additional deaths to be 2,454. The Worldometer COVID dashboard reported that 2,013 people had perished on Tuesday. Its seven-day average of daily deaths is now at 2,121. Yet, there is no mention of these grim statistics by any major news outlet. Since Omicron first emerged in the US, more than 137,000 people have lost their lives. The cumulative total is approaching 950,000 deaths. At the current trajectory, one million will have died before April. Less than 65 percent of the population has been fully vaccinated, with just over half a million vaccinations being given each day. The campaign to vaccinate has essentially stalled. This will be a significant factor as the newer variants of SARS-CoV-2 are driven by selection pressures to develop more immune-evading characteristics that will take advantage of the population’s waning immunity. However, federal public health officials and policymakers have little stomach to discuss such prospects or consider what the so-called “new normal” will look like when the coronavirus is allowed unimpeded access to every home on every street across the country. This is the burning question that was raised in a recent segment of the “In the Bubble” podcast featuring Dr. Kristian Andersen, a professor in the Department of Immunology and Microbiology at Scripps Research in California. The show is hosted by Andy Slavitt, who was an interim senior adviser to the COVID-19 response coordinator in the Biden administration. The discussion centered on the implications of Denmark’s nearly complete abandonment of public health measures against the pandemic. This is being done under conditions where, despite having very high rates of vaccination, Denmark is experiencing levels of infection and death not seen since last winter’s highs.
COVID-19 deaths continue to rise among children in the US -- Despite the efforts by the ruling elite and the corporate media to falsely claim that SARS-CoV-2 has become endemic and will be more like the seasonal flu, COVID-19 infections and deaths continue at rates comparable to the peaks of previous waves. A recent investigative report by Gothamist comparing provisional COVID-19 data by sex and age and preliminary influenza-associated pediatric deaths data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) explodes the lie that the disease is mild and is akin to the flu. First, the report notes that influenza-related pediatric deaths nearly disappeared among children in 2021. This was largely due to the broad-based use of mitigation measures across the US and in schools. Second, COVID-19 deaths among children not only far outpaced flu-related deaths but have risen sharply throughout the pandemic. Just three flu-related child deaths were reported in 2021 compared to 539 COVID-19 reported deaths among children in the same period. Additionally, as flu-related deaths diminished between 2020 and 2021 almost to zero, reported COVID-19-related deaths among children nearly tripled from 198 reported deaths to 539. The report also showcases that the greatest number of deaths in 2021 occurred during the last five months of the year, amid a surge of the Delta variant and after schools reopened for the fall semester. Since the spread of Omicron, the frequency of deaths among children has only continued to rise. According to the same report, at least 58 reported deaths have been recorded since the start of 2022 alone. It must also be noted that the CDC dataset used in the Gothamist report is a vast undercount of actual COVID-19 related deaths among children due to lack of systematic reporting and testing across the US. Further, the CDC dataset used in the report, which organizes the sex and age of reported COVID-19 deaths by month, year and location of death, is itself an incomplete tally of the total number of preliminary reported child COVID-related deaths by the CDC. The CDC reveals on its website that the above cited data are “provisional” and do not represent all deaths that were reported from 2020 to present. A footnote in the data states, “Data during this period are incomplete because of the lag in time between when the death occurred and when the death certificate is completed, submitted to NCHS and processed for reporting purposes. This delay can range from 1 week to 8 weeks or more.” Another dataset on the CDC website, “Deaths by age group,” which is a preliminary report of the total number of reported deaths by age, shows a major discrepancy between the two datasets. While the provisional dataset used in the Gothamist report shows that 822 children have died from COVID-19 during the pandemic, the demographic dataset shows that 1,334 children have died from COVID-19. This means that at least 512 reported child COVID-19 deaths have yet to be coded with date and location information and input into the provisional dataset. This discrepancy further counters the lie that COVID-19 is “mild” and does not significantly impact children. In reality COVID-19 is much more contagious and deadly than the flu, including in children. Notably, in the past month since January 14, preliminary data from the CDC show that 293 new COVID-19 deaths among children have been reported.
CDC: NYC anime convention was not a superspreader event -A 53,000-person anime convention in New York City in late November was not an omicron superspreader event, a Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) investigation found. Indoor mask wearing, a vaccine requirement, booster shots and a high-quality air filtration system in the Javits Center largely helped prevent the virus's transmission, the CDC said. Among 4,560 attendees with available test results, just 119 tested positive for COVID-19, a rate of only 2.6 percent. "These findings reinforce the importance of implementing multiple, simultaneous prevention measures, such as ensuring up-to-date vaccination, mask use, physical distancing, and improved ventilation in limiting SARS-CoV-2 transmission, during large, indoor events," the CDC said. The anime convention attracted tens of thousands of people from 52 U.S. jurisdictions and 30 countries from Nov. 19 to 21. The convention required attendees to have received at least one dose of a COVID-19 vaccine and enforced mask-wearing while attendees were indoors. More than 4,000 survey respondents reported always wearing a mask while indoors at the event, and "compared with test-negative respondents, test-positive respondents were more likely to report attending bars, karaoke, or nightclubs, and eating or drinking indoors near others for at least 15 minutes." Among the people who tested positive, nasal congestion or runny nose and fatigue were the most common symptoms reported. A second, parallel CDC investigation of a group of 23 friends who attended the convention found that 16 of them received a positive test result. Four of them stayed in the same vacation house, while all participated in mostly unmasked visits to restaurants, bars, clubs, and karaoke venues. All 23 attendees had received a primary COVID-19 vaccination series, and 11 had received a booster. Their median age was 24. “Potential contributing factors to the high attack rates include unmasked and prolonged contact in social settings and residential accommodations,” the CDC said. “This finding among this group contrasts with the observed overall transmission at the convention, which was relatively low.”
Long’ COVID-19 often strikes young, healthy Utahns doctors say - - There are many chronic symptoms that Utah’s COVID-19 “long-haulers” can continue to suffer from months after initially becoming infected, Intermountain Healthcare doctors said Monday, warning the hardest hit patients may be those who least expect it.“Many of these patients aren’t even hospitalized, do not even have bad infections but yet they have ongoing symptoms,” Dr. Dixie Harris told reporters during a virtual news conference to announce a new Intermountain Healthcare program aimed at connecting those who’ve had symptoms for at least three months with specialists. Harris, a pulmonologist who treats COVID-19 patients at Utah Valley Hospital in Provo, said the lingering symptoms she sees most often in patients with what’s known as long COVID-19 are “profound fatigue, brain fog, shortness of breath, coughing, heart racing and there’s many, many other symptoms.”The effort by the region’s largest health care provider to help patients struggling with lingering effects from the virus comes as the Utah Department of Health is reporting a record 39 additional deaths in the state from COVID-19 since Friday, including 23 that occurred before Jan. 14, along with 3,128 new cases.“These deaths are a stark, sad reminder of the human toll COVID-19 continues to take in our communities. Behind each number is a family mourning the loss of a loved one and we share in their grief,” state health department spokesman Tom Hudachko said in a statement, urging Utahns to get vaccinated and boosted against the virus.Utah’s COVID-19 death toll was at 4,300 as of Wednesday.Hudachko said the most deaths previously reported in a single day was 33 on Jan. 24, a total that also included a weekend. Last Tuesday, 32 deaths were reported but cases have been declining, in part because most Utahns with symptoms have been encouraged to skip crowded testing sites.Even as Utah may have be seeing the peak of the most recent COVID-19 surge, driven by the incredibly contagious omicron variant, Harris and Dr. Ellie Hirshberg, another critical care physician at Intermountain Healthcare, said long COVID-19 occurs in as many as half of all acute virus cases and appears to target the young and fit.“What I have personally seen is a lot of healthy p eople, who don’t have preexisting conditions, a lot of athletes, a lot of fully working individuals,” Hirshberg said, whose lingering symptoms have put a stop to their activities. Yet at the same time, she said many of her COVID-19 patients sick enough to be hospitalized are recovering faster.“They never got very sick with COVID but yet they had fevers, chills, headaches, the whole works,” she said, symptoms that continued long beyond the few days or up to two weeks it usually takes coronavirus patients to start feeling better. “The thing I tell patients is to really listen to their body. It’s not a typical cold, you have to listen to your body, listen to how your body feels with activity. Even just patients walking across the room, they can become short of breath and their heart can start racing,”
29-Year-Old Runner Shares Her Struggle with Long COVID - Catie Barber has been running since she was very young, and started running half-marathons in 2013. The 29-year-old registered dietician cooked nutritious meals, hit the gym for two hours a day, and loved hiking and biking. "Everything I did revolved around being active," In March 2020, Barber was working at a nursing home in the Hudson Valley when patients started getting sick. By the end of the month, she and her coworkers started feeling symptomatic — Barber had a headache, felt like she had a cold and was exhausted. She came home from work and went right to sleep, "which is not like me," she says. She didn't have a cough or a fever, so she didn't think she had COVID. But on April 3, 2020, she tested positive. "My initial COVID case was very mild," she says. "I just had your standard COVID, you know, the body aches, the fatigue, the headache. Lost sense of taste and smell. Very minimal symptoms." After two weeks, she was feeling better and went back to work. But three days later, she was face-down on the couch and felt sicker than before. She kept trying to return to work and failing. "Every time I would go back, I would just be too tired," she says. "One of the times I went back, I tried to do a standard tube-feeding procedure and I couldn't remember what to do. I had no idea. And I was like, 'I'm going to kill someone. I can't be doing this.' I had to call my supervisor and say, 'You have to take over. I don't know what I'm doing.' The brain fog was just so bad. So with three failed work attempts, I just kept getting worse and worse." On the morning of May 4th, she was with her husband Dave Barber at their home in Saugerties, NY, lying on the couch when she told him, "I can't move." Her husband took her to the emergency room. "It was so scary," Catie says. "I just had tears rolling down my face. I'm like, 'I am going in here to die.' " The ER doctor was concerned when he called Dave because Catie looked very sick, but he couldn't determine what was wrong. Without a reason to admit Catie, insurance wouldn't cover her stay. Her husband asked the doctor if she was dying, and he said no. She was released and sent back home. Their parents took turns staying with her during the day, while Dave worked. "I thought I was living a slow progressive death. We had no idea, and neither did the doctors. Nobody could tell me if I was going to get better or not," she says. By late August, Catie wasn't able to walk at all and was wheelchair bound.
Crisis standards of care ended in Colorado amid falling COVID-19 cases -Crisis standards of care ended in Colorado on Thursday amid falling COVID-19 cases in the state. Colorado announced the move after it said hospitalizations and cases were declining. “Crisis standards of care are an important tool to help manage health care delivery in times of acute crisis,” said Eric France, chief medical officer of the state’s health department. “The decision to deactivate these standards is based on recent modeling and steadily declining cases and hospitalizations, suggesting the immediate strain COVID-19 places on Colorado should continue to decrease in the coming weeks. We recognize that health care systems continue to face challenges due to chronic staffing issues across the economy, and we thank health care workers for their service protecting Coloradans throughout the COVID-19 pandemic,” he added. The crisis standard of care for staffing was implemented back in November due to limited staff and an abundance of hospitalizations. The activation was used to assist hospitals in determining how to allocate workers. In January, the standard was placed on emergency medical services so guidance could be instituted for how to care for patients with limited staff in emergency vehicles and how to interact with infectious patients. Throughout the pandemic, Colorado has recorded almost 1.3 million cases and more than 12,000 deaths.
California shifting to 'endemic' approach to COVID-19 -California officials on Thursday are expected to unveil a new plans for coexisting with COVID-19, which will involve a shift to treating the virus as endemic.As KCRA reported, California health secretary Mark Ghaly said on Thursday, "The focus is going to be being prepared and being ready."According to Ghaly, part of being prepared will include "learning from what we've done, learning from our experiences to date and making sure Californians can feel confident in the tools that we're putting together."This development comes just days after California lifted its universal indoor mask mandate for vaccinated people. Local health authorities are still permitted to issue restrictions that go further than the state's guidance. Masks will continue to be required in schools, however.California Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) has said that part of the state's ongoing approach the COVID-19 pandemic will include countering misinformation and disinformation.According to the California state government's COVID-19 tracker, the rate of new cases has fallen by a large degree in the past few weeks, resembling case rates seen before the surge brought on by the omicron strain. However, the rate of coronavirus-related deaths have yet to follow this trend.Los Angeles County reported the second-highest daily coronavirus death toll in close to a year on Wednesday, the Los Angeles Times reported.
French COVID-19 deaths reach highest level since the winter of 2021 -In the past week France has recorded over 650 daily deaths on two occasions. On February 8, 691 deaths were recorded. On February 10, 655 further deaths were reported. The 7-day average of 324 daily deaths is the highest figure since April 1, when just 4.4 percent of the French population was fully vaccinated against the virus, compared to over 77 percent today. Despite a level of death that has not been seen for almost a year and one of the highest of the entire pandemic, there has been no mention of the figure in any of the major French newspapers or by the government. The rise in deaths in the country has occurred after five consecutive weeks where daily infections have averaged over 100,000. Although average cases are now falling from the peak of 365,000 on January 26, the 7-day average is still above 100,000. Since Omicron became dominant in France on December 31, 2021, 11.5 million people have been infected in the country. This means that in a little over a month there have been more infections than the rest of the pandemic combined. Citing the fall in cases, the Macron government is moving to remove all restrictions against COVID-19, as has already been done in Denmark and the UK. From February 28, masks will no longer be required in most indoor settings. On February 12, the requirement to present a recent negative test result upon arrival into France was also removed for vaccinated travelers. The explosion of infections since mid-December shows that the health measures taken by the French government were never sufficient to protect the population. However, the end of even the most minimal public health measures will allow the virus to spread further throughout the population and allow for surges of other variants and Omicron sub-lineages known to be widely circulating in France, across Europe and internationally. Beyond the current level of death, such high levels of infection are a catastrophe for millions condemned to live with the long-term consequences of COVID-19. The experience from sufferers of Long COVID from the first wave of the pandemic shows that millions will suffer from at least shortness of breath, brain fog and fatigue. Unfortunately, thousands who survived the initial symptoms of COVID-19 will likely meet an early end in the coming year. Fatal diseases are more common among individuals who have survived COVID-19 infection in the previous 12 months. One recent study found that individuals with a confirmed COVID-19 infection were 63 percent more likely to suffer from 20 cardiovascular diseases, including strokes and heart attacks, in the 12 months after infection.
Omicron rages in German hospitals and nursing homes -Rapidly rising infection levels are having an increasingly serious impact on the situation in health and care facilities. On Friday alone, more than 206,000 people in Germany became infected and 196 died. At the same time, the German government is preparing to lift the remaining, already completely inadequate, protective measures. Like governments across Europe, the federal coalition under Chancellor Olaf Scholz (Social Democratic Party, SPD) is deliberately accepting mass illness and death. Massive outbreaks are already commonplace. In a nursing home in Heidelberg, 34 residents and two employees recently tested positive for coronavirus. In a care facility in Lichtenfels, Bavaria, 75 people have been infected. In addition, 42 residents and 33 employees have tested positive, according to the operator. In Schleswig-Holstein, a coronavirus outbreak was reported in a retirement home in the municipality of Tarp, with 65 residents and 19 employees becoming infected. In a facility in Wahlstedt, 54 of the 89 residents and 30 of 39 employees were infected. Here, the outbreak was caused by the significantly more contagious Omicron subvariant BA.2. According to the Robert Koch Institute (RKI), 20 percent of infections in Germany are now due to this variant. In a care facility in Horb (Baden-Württemberg), 15 residents and 10 staff members have been infected in a new outbreak. A few weeks ago, nine residents died following an outbreak. The list could go on and on. The numerous infections lead to an enormous loss of staff, which further aggravates the staff shortage that has been rampant in the nursing professions for years. In Thuringia, according to the Ministry of Social Affairs, this is no longer achieved in 40 percent of facilities. In 129 of 328 homes, the staff quota is below 50 percent, as reported by the Deutsche Presse-Agentur. Among them are 49 facilities that employ only between 30 and 45 percent specialised staff. Many facilities are not accepting new residents due to a lack of staff. According to broadcaster rbb, several facilities in Cottbus, Brandenburg and the surrounding area have already done so. The situation is similar in hospitals. At the Bonhoeffer Hospital in Neubrandenburg, for example, one in 10 employees is absent because of a coronavirus infection or is in quarantine. Only urgent emergencies are currently admitted there. At the Südstadtklinikum in Rostock, so many doctors and nurses are absent due to COVID-19 that one ward has already been closed. According to the medical director, there are plans to close another ward. The situation in Berlin is equally dire. Here, the hospitalisation incidence rate is over 25 per 100,000 inhabitants, which means it has risen by 5 points within one week. This is also associated with a strong increase in bed occupancy in normal wards. The state-owned Vivantes hospitals are currently treating 331 COVID-19 patients, 53 more than a week ago (as of Friday). At the same time, the sickness rate among staff is twice as high as usual.
WHO warns of increase in Eastern European COVID-19 cases - The World Health Organization's (WHO) European region director is raising alarm as COVID-19 infections rise in Eastern Europe, with six countries seeing a surge in cases, including Russia and Ukraine."Over the past two weeks, cases of COVID-19 have more than doubled in six countries in this part of the region (Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Georgia, the Russian Federation, and Ukraine)," the regional director for WHO in Europe, Hans Kluge, said in a statement on Tuesday.He added that the entire WHO European region has recorded more than 165 million COVID-19 cases to date, and 1.8 million people have lost their lives, including 25,000 in the past week.Kluge noted that while vaccination is the best defense against disease and death, "too many people at greater risk remain unprotected: less than 40 percent of those aged over 60 in Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Kyrgyzstan, Ukraine and Uzbekistan have completed their COVID-19 vaccine series.""Bulgaria, Georgia and North Macedonia are also among those countries where under 40 percent of health-care workers have received at least one dose of COVID-19 vaccine," he added.According to Kluge, countries should be cautious about lifting COVID-19 measures that have proven effective in mitigating the spread of the disease."Faced with the Omicron tidal wave, and with Delta still circulating widely in the east, this worrying situation is not the moment to lift measures that we know work in reducing the spread of COVID-19," he added.However, he added that while new variants could e merge, there are some positives to take note of, including "high levels of immunity gained through infection or vaccination, the end of the winter season with fewer people mixing indoors; and the lower severity of Omicron among those fully vaccinated."
Medical officials estimate Long COVID affects 1 million in Spain - Recent data on the long-term impact of COVID-19 exposes the disastrous results of the vaccine-only strategy implemented by the Socialist Party (PSOE)-Podemos government and its allied trade unions. One million Spaniards are likely suffering from Long COVID, including around 200,000 children. Last week, Spain passed the milestone of 10 million confirmed COVID-19 cases in a population of 47 million, according to the Ministry of Health. Despite high vaccination rates, COVID-19 cases exploded over the Christmas holidays, giving Spain one of Europe’s highest incidence rates. Of Spain’s 10 million cases, over 3.6 million were recorded in January 2022 alone, driven mainly by the highly infectious Omicron variant, with over three times more cases in January than in December 2021. This is the result of the PSOE-Podemos policy, shared by all Europe’s major governments, embracing mass COVID-19 infections under cover of declaring the virus “endemic.” The 10 milllion threshold drove primary care doctors, pharmacists, nurses and psychologists to establish a consensus on defining Long COVID last week. Despite the impact on the lives of millions of patients who report symptoms derived from the COVID-19 infection, there is no consensus on action and no procedure established to treat the symptoms of these patients in Spain, even though the World Health Organization (WHO) has had an official definition since last October. According to the WHO, Long COVID “refers collectively to the constellation of long-term symptoms that some people experience after they have had COVID-19.” It adds : “While most people who develop COVID-19 fully recover, some people develop a variety of mid- and long-term effects like fatigue, breathlessness and cognitive dysfunction (for example, confusion, forgetfulness, or a lack of mental focus and clarity). Some people also experience psychological effects as part of post COVID-19 condition. “These symptoms might persist from their initial illness or develop after their recovery. They can come and go or relapse over time. “Post COVID-19 condition can affect a person’s ability to perform daily activities such as work or household chores.”
China to provide Hong Kong with testing, treatment, quarantine capacity amid COVID-19 surge - China will assist Hong Kong amid a surge of COVID-19 cases by helping to boost testing, treatment and quarantine capacity in the city, with no current plans to implement a lockdown. Hong Kong's Chief Secretary John Lee joined Health Secretary Sophia Chan and security chief Chris Tang on a visit to Shenzhen on the mainland over the weekend to secure Chinese assistance as the city reports more than a thousand new confirmed cases each day, Reuters reported. Lee said leaders at the meeting were on the "same wavelength" for battling the surge driven by the highly transmissible omicron variant, with Chinese officials potentially planning to help supply Hong Kong with lab personnel, hospital beds and protective equipment, according to the wire service. "All support will be provided. Rapid tests and help building isolation facilities are things we agreed on," Lee said. During the pandemic, China has implemented a zero-COVID strategy that has involved putting cities into partial or full lockdowns and performing mass testing in an effort to stem the spread of the virus. But "there are no plans for a lockdown at this stage" in Hong Kong, Lee said, according to Reuters. Still, hundreds of thousands of people in the city have been forced to take tests every day, and testing centers are overwhelmed, per the wire service. Hong Kong was reporting an average of 772 infections per day as of Saturday, its highest daily average yet, according to a Reuters dashboard. Since the pandemic began, Hong Kong has reported 20,119 infections and 216 coronavirus-related deaths
Health experts declare Sri Lanka is being hit by a tsunami of Omicron infections -On Wednesday, the Daily Mirror quoted comments from health experts who warned that Sri Lanka was “in the midst of a massive Omicron wave sweeping through the country.” They added, “We don’t know the actual caseload, but the situation is far from normal. The caseload has risen tremendously due to the Omicron variant.” Despite a drastic drop in testing in order to hide the full extent of the pandemic, more than 1,000 cases have been officially reported every day since January 31. On Wednesday, Health Ministry Technical Division director Dr. Anwar Hamdani told Ada Derana that the number of COVID-19 infected patients had increased by 20 percent, deaths by 17 percent and patients depending on oxygen by 12 percent over the previous week. The current official daily COVID-19 death toll is around 30. Thirty-six deaths were reported on Wednesday, surpassing the previous day’s figure of 31. According to statistics, the total number of infections since the pandemic hit the island is now over 633,000 with total deaths at 15,899. Rising infections have overwhelmed the limited number of COVID-dedicated hospitals and seen thousands of patients pushed into so-called “home quarantine.” Over 5,000 health employees have been infected, including more than 1,000 nurses. On Monday, 20 doctors and 60 other frontline workers at Badulla Hospital tested positive. Last month, a Naththandiya Dhammissara National School student died of the coronavirus, taking the official student death toll to 90 since the pandemic began in 2020. COVID infections among students and teachers have been reported all over the island. Last month, the government’s murderous policy of “living with the virus” saw 232 virus-infected Grade 5 students forced to sit for scholarship examinations. This month, 29 separate district level centres have been established so that COVID-19 infected candidates can participate in Advanced Level examinations. Education authorities ordered infected students in quarantine “to report to the designated examination centre mentioned in their examination admission form.”
COVID cases surge in South Korea as virtually all public health measures ended - The number of COVID-19 cases in South Korea has skyrocketed by tens of thousands in recent days. On February 10, the number of daily new cases reached 54,122, an increase of 31,218 from the number of daily cases a week earlier. Similar numbers hovering over 50,000 have been reported each day since then. This explosion in new infections is a direct result of the policies of the Moon Jae-in administration, which has essentially junked all measures to stop the spread of the virus. Nearly 60 percent of all deaths during the two years of the pandemic have taken place since November 1 last year when Seoul began the so-called “with COVID” era, in which the population would be forced to “live” with the virus. The deadly consequences of this policy quickly became apparent as the healthcare system was overwhelmed and deaths shot up. This has not given Seoul pause, however. On February 7, government health authorities announced that they would no longer provide care for most COVID-19 patients, claiming they would only focus on those over 60 or with underlying health conditions. Infected patients will receive treatment at home, divided up into a high-risk group and a so-called general care group, with the former receiving remote treatment and consultations while the latter will not be monitored at all. The policy of treating patients at home, rather than in designated facilities, is an extension of measures initially implemented last October. In announcing the new measures, the Central Disaster and Safety Countermeasure Headquarters claimed, “The Omicron strain is less likely to develop serious symptoms and has a lower fatality rate compared to the Delta variant, and the majority of the patients suffer light or no symptoms. So the current disease control and medical system, which equally focuses on all patients, is less efficient and can neglect the care of patients at high risk.” The decision is being presented as the inevitable and unavoidable outcome of the surge in Omicron variant cases. Actually, it represents Seoul’s decision to allow COVID-19 to run rampant throughout the country and remove any restrictions on big business’ ability to rake in profits. In addition, the government will only monitor people who are unvaccinated and living with a confirmed COVID patient. Those who have been fully vaccinated will not be monitored or required to quarantine, instead only advised to get tested if they begin to show symptoms. Unvaccinated people living with a confirmed COVID patient will not be directly notified, but instead authorities will pass on the information through the patient. The quarantine period for those infected has been reduced to seven days.
New Omicron Subvariant BA.2 Spreading Rapidly, Accounts For Roughly 1 Out Of Every 5 New Covid Cases Sequenced Globally, Says WHO - The World Health Organization has released a new report on Omicron sub-variant BA.2 which shows the strain accounted for 21.5% of all new Omicron cases analyzed worldwide in the first week of February. Omicron, in turn, represented nearly all of the variants identified globally (98.3%) in the genomically-sequenced samples submitted to the GISAID data-sharing hub in the previous 30 days.Translation: BA.2 is spreading rapidly, though it is unclear to what effect.BA.2 — sometimes called “Stealth Omicron” — accounted for the majority of new cases identified in 10 countries as of Monday. Those include Denmark, India, China, Bangladesh, Brunei Darussalam, Guam, Montenegro, Nepal, Pakistan and the Philippines. The report notes, however, that there are massive differences in its spread across the globe “with the South-East Asia Region reporting the highest prevalence of BA.2 among Omicron sequences (44.7%) and the Region of the Americas reporting the lowest prevalence (1%).”That’s good news for the U.S., most of which is removing restrictions after the winter Omicron wave. The prevalence of BA.2 has tripled from 1.2% during the week ending 29 January 2022 to 3.6% during the week ending 5 February 2022, but it still makes up a very small proportion of new cases.By contrast, the new Omicron strain’s prevalence in South Africa rose from 27% on February 4 to 86% by February 11. In the United Kingdom it jumped six-fold from January 17-31, from 2.2% to 12%. Denmark saw its BA.2 numbers double from the last week of 2021 to mid-January 2022, from 20% to 45%. It became the dominant variant in that country by the third week of January, at 66% of sequenced samples.A late-January report from the Statens Serum Institut, which operates under the auspices of the Danish Ministry of Health, found that BA.2 will likely account for “nearly 100% of all cases by mid-February 2022.” The report also found that “BA.2 may be approx. 30% more transmissible than BA.1 (the original Omicron). “Consequently,” the assessment continues, “this quick increase in BA.2 may lead to a steeper epidemic curve with a higher peak and may postpone the time at which infection rates decline until February.”
Omicron sub-lineage BA.2 may have “substantial growth advantage,” UKHSA reports – BMJ - More than 1000 cases of BA.2—a sub-lineage of the SARS-CoV-2 variant omicron—have been identified in England, the UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA) has reported.1The agency warned that BA.2 has an “increased growth rate” compared with the original omicron variant (BA.1) in all regions of England where there were enough cases to assess. The agency added that while growth rates can be overestimated in early analyses, “the apparent growth advantage is currently substantial.”Contact tracing data found that people infected with BA.2 were more likely to infect household contacts, with 13.4% (64 of 476) of BA.2 household contacts testing positive, compared with 10.3% (10 444 of 101 773) of BA.1 contacts (27 December 2021 to 11 January 2022.)The agency also noted that preliminary investigations found no evidence of decreased vaccine effectiveness against symptomatic disease for BA.2 compared with BA.1. At least 25 weeks after two doses, vaccine effectiveness against symptomatic infection was reported as 9% and 13% respectively for BA.1 and BA.2, which increased to 63% for BA.1 and 70% for BA.2 at two weeks following a third booster dose. Meanwhile, the UKHSA has said there is currently no data on the severity of BA.2.Susan Hopkins, UKHSA chief medical adviser, said, “We now know that BA.2 has an increased growth rate which can be seen in all regions in England. We have also learnt that BA.2 has a slightly higher secondary attack rate than BA.1 in households. Although hospital admissions and deaths remain low, cases are still high in some areas and some age groups so it’s important that we continue to act cautiously as restrictions are lifted.”Commenting on the report, John Edmunds, professor at the Centre for the Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, said, “BA.2 appears to be even more transmissible than the original omicron strain (BA.1). It is starting to increase in relative frequency and we might expect it to become dominant in the UK in the next few weeks, as it has done in Denmark recently.“It is difficult to say what the implications of this will be. It may well extend this wave of infection, or even lead to another peak. The good news is that at present there is no evidence to suggest that it is more severe than omicron and, as the UKHSA analysis shows, the vaccines appear to be as effective against it as they are against BA.1.”
Subvariant May Be More Dangerous Than Omicron: Study --The Omicron subvariant, BA.2, is not only more transmissible than the original Omicron strain, BA.1, but may cause more severe disease, a lab study from Japan says. “Our multiscale investigations suggest that the risk of BA.2 for global health is potentially higher than that of BA.1,” the researchers said in the study published on the preprint server bioRxiv, The study has not been peer-reviewed yet. The researchers infected hamsters with BA.1 and BA.2. The hamsters infected with BA.2 got sicker, with more lung damage and loss of body weight. Results were similar when mice were infected with BA.1 and BA.2. “Infection experiments using hamsters show that BA.2 is more pathogenic than BA.1,” the study said. BA.1 and BA.2 both appear to evade immunity created by COVID-19 vaccines, the study said. But a booster shot makes illness after infection 74% less likely, CNN said. What’s more, therapeutic monoclonal antibodies used to treat people infected with COVID didn’t have much effect on BA.2. BA.2 was “almost completely resistant” to casirivimab and imdevimab and was 35 times more resistant to sotrovimab, compared to the original B.1.1 virus, the researchers wrote. “In summary, our data suggest the possibility that BA.2 would be the most concerned variant to global health,” the researchers wrote. “Currently, both BA.2 and BA.1 are recognised together as Omicron and these are almost undistinguishable. Based on our findings, we propose that BA.2 should be recognised as a unique variant of concern, and this SARS-CoV-2 variant should be monitored in depth.” If the World Health Organization recognized BA.2 as a “unique variant of concern,” it would be given its own Greek letter. But some scientists noted that findings in the lab don’t always reflect what’s happening in the real world of people. “I think it's always hard to translate differences in animal and cell culture models to what's going on with regards to human disease,” Jeremy Kamil, PhD, an associate professor of microbiology and immunology at Louisiana State University Health Shreveport, told Newsweek. “That said, the differences do look real.”
Coronavirus: As BA.2 subvariant of Omicron rises, lab studies point to signs of severity – CNN --- The BA.2 virus -- a subvariant of the Omicron coronavirus variant -- isn't just spreading faster than its distant cousin, it may also cause more severe disease and appears capable of thwarting some of the key weapons we have against Covid-19, new research suggests.New lab experiments from Japan show that BA.2 may have features that make it as capable of causing serious illness as older variants of Covid-19, including Delta.And like Omicron, it appears to largely escape the immunity created by vaccines. A booster shot restores protection, making illness after infection about 74% less likely. BA.2 is also resistant to some treatments, including sotrovimab, the monoclonal antibody that's currently being used against Omicron.The findings were posted Wednesday as a preprint study on the bioRxiv server, before peer review. Normally, before a study is published in medical journal, it is scrutinized by independent experts. Preprints allow research to be shared more quickly, but they are posted before that additional layer of review."It might be, from a human's perspective, a worse virus than BA.1 and might be able to transmit better and cause worse disease," says Dr. Daniel Rhoads, section head of microbiology at the Cleveland Clinic in Ohio. Rhoads reviewed the study but was not involved in the research. The US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is keeping close watch on BA.2, said its director, Dr. Rochelle Walensky. "There is no evidence that the BA.2 lineage is more severe than the BA.1 lineage. CDC continues to monitor variants that are circulating both domestically and internationally," she said Friday. "We will continue to monitor emerging data on disease severity in humans and findings from papers like this conducted in laboratory settings." BA.2 is highly mutated compared with the original Covid-causing virus that emerged in Wuhan, China. It also has dozens of gene changes that are different from the original Omicron strain, making it as distinct from the most recent pandemic virus as the Alpha, Beta, Gamma and Delta variants were from each other. Kei Sato, a researcher at the University of Tokyo who conducted the study, argues that these findings prove that BA.2 should not be considered a type of Omicron and that it needs to be more closely monitored. "As you may know, BA.2 is called 'stealth Omicron,' " Sato told CNN. That's because it doesn't show up on PCR tests as an S-gene target failure, the way Omicron does. Labs therefore have to take an extra step and sequence the virus to find this variant. "Establishing a method to detect BA.2 specifically would be the first thing" many countries need to do, he says. "It looks like we might be looking at a new Greek letter here," agreed Deborah Fuller, a virologist at the University of Washington School of Medicine, who reviewed the study but was not part of the research.
New Data: Omicron BA.2 More Contagious and Severe than BA.1, Yet Officials Committed to Relaxing Protections by Yves Smith - A new pre-print study in BioRxIv by a team of Japanese researchers, plus emerging data from the UK and South Africa, point in the same direction: that the Omicron variant BA.2 is not just outcompeting “original” Omicron, variant BA.1, but is also more pathogenic. The article estimated BA.2 as 1.4 times as contagious as BA.1, which is consistent with BA.2 managing to gain a lot of ground against an already fabulously contagious variant. From the abstract:Statistical analysis shows that the effective reproduction number of BA.2 is 1.4-fold higher than that of BA.1. Neutralisation experiments show that the vaccine-induced humoral immunity fails to function against BA.2 like BA.1, and notably, the antigenicity of BA.2 is different from BA.1. Cell culture experiments show that BA.2 is more replicative in human nasal epithelial cells and more fusogenic than BA.1. Furthermore, infection experiments using hamsters show that BA.2 is more pathogenic than BA.1. Our multiscale investigations suggest that the risk of BA.2 for global health is potentially higher than that of BA.1.This study is consistent with worrisome real-world BA.2 sightings, such as: (see tweet thread) If you read the thread, you will also see that South African officials were nevertheless trying to spin BA.2 as no worse than “mild” BA.1.Now to the new paper, which is getting a lot of media play. Keep in mind that this study performed a considerable number of in vitro tests to try to understand the mechanics of BA.2, plus also infected hamsters to approximate in vivo effects in humans. So on the one hand, these findings are not yet dispositive. But on the other, these various tests pointed generally in the same direction, that BA.2 is both more evasive of existing immunity (vaccine and infection conferred) and more dangerous than BA.1. Consider this discussion:BA.2 was almost completely resistant to two therapeutic monoclonal antibodies, Casirivimab and Imdevimab, and was 35-fold more resistant to another therapeutic antibody, Sotrovimab, when compared to the ancestral D614G-bearing B.1.1 virus (Fig. 2d). Moreover, both BA.1 and BA.2 were highly resistant to the convalescent sera who had infected with early pandemic virus (before May 2020; Fig. 2e), Alpha (Extended Data Fig. 3a) and Delta (Extended Data Fig. 3b). These data suggest that, similar to BA.1, BA.2 is highly resistant to the antisera induced by vaccination and infection with other SARS-CoV-2 variants as well as three antiviral therapeutic antibodies.Admittedly, humans may be less susceptible to BA.2 lung damage than hamsters, but the hamster results indicate that BA.2 attacks the lungs more than BA.1 did. We could be back to the old normal of long stays in hospitals to try to contain Covid-induced viral pneumonia:
How superbugs use mirror images to create antibiotic resistance --Methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) is a bacterial infection that has become resistant to most of the antibiotics used to treat regular staph infections. Duke University computer scientist Bruce Donald and collaborators at the University of Connecticut are working to develop new enzyme inhibitors to fight MRSA. In research published in PLOS Computational Biology, the team discovered how a single small mutation makes a big difference in drug efficacy. They examined dihydrofolate reductase (DHFR), an enzyme that antibiotics target to fight MRSA. Drugs that inhibit DHFR work a bit like locks and keys; they bind to enzymes in MRSA, which have a specific three-dimensional structure that only allows molecules that fit precisely to attach to them. A mutation can change the structure of a bacterial enzyme and cause drugs to lose effectiveness. The F98Y mutation is a well-known resistance mutation. A slight change in the 98th amino acid in the DHFR enzyme changes a phenylalanine to a tyrosine. "Those two amino acids are structurally similar," said Graham Holt, grad student in the Donald lab, "but the mutation has a huge effect on the efficacy of the inhibitors." In essence, it changes the lock. "We looked at the electron density data from the crystallographer and found something strange," Donald said. In trying to determine the structure of the F98Y mutant, crystallographers used a computer program that—unbeknownst to them—flipped the chirality, or made a mirror image, of the NADPH cofactor to get a better fit. The "flipped" chemical species they discovered through their analysis exists in experimental conditions in the laboratory and plausibly in vivo. "Using OSPREY, we discovered this flipped chirality," Donald said, "which we believe happened because of the F98Y mutation." As in 2-factor authentication, the single enzyme mutation and the flipped cofactor appear to conspire together to evade the inhibitor. This "chiral evasion" changes the structural basis for resistance. But now Donald and colleagues know not only how a single small mutation changed the lock, but also the structure they need to make a better key—a better drug inhibitor.
Bird Flu Worsens, Threatening Food Supply -- Bloomberg News reports an outbreak in Kentucky and Virginia after initial outbreak discovered at Indiana facility last week. - Avian flu is nothing new, and as we continue to keep large quantities of poultry in ever increasing numbers in concentrated operations around the poultry processors, the occurrences are likely to become more severe and often. This is mostly because commercial poultry operations look like this:The amount of birds grown for two months in each coop can easily be 8,000 if not more. Each farm can have upward of 100,000 birds with a processing plant central to 10-20 farms, in what can equate to a million birds processed a month for one processing facility. The numbers are staggering. The yin to the commercial yang is the small free range outfit, where a few hundred birds just kind of do their thing: The population density matters. On a small scale we can isolate the sick individual immediately without having to cull the flock. In a commercial operation, there are always a few dead amongst the living. By Identifying a cause takes time and culling the entire population will occur. It is purely a matter of debate over which operation is better to provide protein into the food supply. On one hand, an abundant, cheap supply of protein is easily available to the masses at any given street corner. On the other, small direct from the free-range poultry farm, hand the consumer has to be a little more methodical and purchase a whole broiler with a plan in mind. The end purpose is the same, the paths we go to get there are wildly not. A localized avian flu outbreak can raise prices locally and provide shortages. When the flu is epidemic, shortages can be felt throughout the entire country, with food prices continuing to increase. Proteins are more expensive than ever and this is likely to make that worse.
Three baby formulas recalled by Abbott Nutrition amid warnings from FDA - Abbott Nutrition on Thursday announced a recall of three of its infant formulas after four babies who consumed the company's products were reported to have been hospitalized for bacterial infections.The recall is for specific lots of the company's Similac, Alimentum and EleCare formulas that were produced by its Sturgis, Mich., facility, USA Today reported.This comes as the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) advised consumers in a release on Thursday not to use certain powdered infant formula products produced at the facility.The agency said it was investigating complaints that the four infants in three states who were said to have consumed powdered infant formula produced at the facility were reported to have Cronobacter sakazakii and Salmonella Newport infections."All four cases related to these complaints were hospitalized and Cronobacter may have contributed to a death in one case," the FDA wrote in the release.The FDA also said it had initiated an onsite inspection at the facility. “As this is a product used as the sole source of nutrition for many of our nation’s newborns and infants, the FDA is deeply concerned about these reports of bacterial infections,” FDA Deputy Commissioner for Food Policy and Response Frank Yiannas said in a statement. “We want to reassure the public that we’re working diligently with our partners to investigate complaints related to these products, which we recognize include infant formula produced at this facility, while we work to resolve this safety concern as quickly as possible,”
Michigan beef found to contain dangerous levels of ‘forever chemicals --Cattle from a small south-east Michigan farm that sold beef to schools and at farmers’ markets in the state have been found to contain dangerous levels of PFAS, so-called “forever chemicals” that can pose a serious risk to human health. The news comes after consumer groups in 2019 warned that using PFAS-laden sewage sludge as fertilizer would contaminate dairy, beef, crops and other food products. However, at the time a Michigan agricultural regulator publicly assured the state’s dairy farmers her agency wouldn’t test milk for the toxic chemicals as they didn’t want to inflict economic pain on the $15bn industry, she said. Now just over two years later, consumer groups say their fears may have come true. Michigan discovered the contamination because it tests sewage sludge for PFAS more than any other state, but officials have downplayed the incident as “isolated” and for now won’t conduct further testing on livestock, dairy or crops. “It’s not enough – we need a lot more monitoring of our agriculture to make sure we’re keeping toxic chemicals out of our food supply,” said Christy McGillivray, executive director of Sierra Club of Michigan. Sludge isn’t the only route PFAS takes into the nation’s food. It’s also found in pesticides, rain, packaging and water used on crops, and testing is increasingly finding the chemicals in vegetables, seafood, meat, dairy and processed foods. Consumer groups say regulators are failing to keep the dangerous compounds out of food, a problem highlighted by the Michigan contamination. PFAS, or per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances, are a class of over 9,000 compounds that are used to make products heat, water and stain resistant. They are dubbed “forever chemicals” because they don’t naturally break down, and they are so effective that they are used in thousands of products across dozens of industries. The chemicals are also linked to a range of serious health problems like cancer, liver disease, kidney issues, high cholesterol, birth defects and decreased immunity. Still, the US Department of Agriculture has largely been absent from the PFAS discussion while the US Food And Drug Administration hasn’t yet established health limits for food. The agency only conducts limited annual testing and recently adjusted its methodology so it will only catch what consumer groups say are extremely high contamination levels, and ignore relatively low to moderate levels that can still pose a health risk.
Antibiotic used on food crops affects bumblebee behavior, lab study finds -An antibiotic sprayed on orchard crops to combat bacterial diseases slows the cognition of bumblebees and reduces their foraging efficiency, a laboratory study finds.Proceedings of the Royal Society B published the findings by scientists at Emory University and the University of Washington.The research focused on streptomycin, an antibiotic used increasingly in U.S. agriculture during the past decade."No one has examined the potential impacts on pollinators of broadcast spraying of antibiotics in agriculture, despite their widespread use," says Laura Avila, co-lead author of the paper and a post-doctoral fellow in Emory's Department of Biology.The current study was based on laboratory experiments using an upper-limit dietary exposure of streptomycin to bumblebees. It is not known whether wild bumblebees are affected by agricultural spraying of streptomycin, or whether they are exposed to the tested concentration in the field."This paper is a first step towards understanding whether the use of streptomycin on food crops may be taking a toll on pollinators that benefit agriculture," says Berry Brosi, senior author of the paper. Brosi began the work as a faculty member in Emory's Department of Environmental Sciences and is currently with the University of Washington.Funded by a U.S. Department of Agricultural grant, the researchers will now conduct field studies where streptomycin is sprayed on fruit orchards. If a detrimental impact is found on bumblebees, the researchers hope to provide evidence to support recommendations for methods and policies that may better serve farmers."Production of our food, farmer livelihoods and the health of pollinators are all tied together," Brosi says. "It's critically important to find ways to maintain agricultural production while also conserving the ecosystem services—including pollination—that a biodiverse ecosystem provides."Based on established evidence, the researchers hypothesize that the negative impact of streptomycin on bumblebees seen in the lab experiments may be due to the disruption of the insects' microbiome."We know that antibiotics can deplete beneficial microbes, along with pathogens," Avila says. "That's true whether the consumers of the antibiotics are people, other animals or insects."
Firefighters sue over 'forever chemicals' in gear - Hundreds of firefighters nationwide are suing over the health effects of exposure to so-called forever chemicals in materials and equipment they used on the job. Most recently, more than a dozen firefighters in Massachusetts blame the chemicals for their developing cancer. Fifteen current and retired firefighters in the state say that elevated levels of the chemicals in question — per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances, or PFAS — were discovered in their blood in December. The plaintiffs allege they were exposed to the chemicals through firefighting foam and “turnout” coats. All 15 plaintiffs currently have some form of cancer, which they blame on the PFAS exposure. The lawsuit names 25 companies as defendants, alleging they manufactured, distributed or sold the products while knowing the health risks involved. Plaintiffs include major firms such as Carrier, DuPont and 3M. “The Firefighter Plaintiffs wore turnouts and used and/or were exposed to Class B foam in the usual and normal course of performing their firefighting duties and training and were repeatedly exposed to PFAS in their workplace. They did not know and, in the exercise of reasonable diligence, could not have known that these products contained PFAS or PFAS- containing materials. They also did not know that PFAS was in their bodies and blood,” the filing states. “At all relevant times and continuing to the present, Defendants have represented that their turnouts and Class B foams are safe.” Elizabeth Pritzker, whose firm Pritzker Levine is handling the lawsuit, told The Hill the firm is in touch with attorneys in multidistrict litigation making similar allegations in a South Carolina court, and that it will likely eventually be folded into that suit. “Our ultimate goal is to clean up the industry,” she added. The lawsuit comes as firefighters in Maryland have lobbied the state to join six others in banning the chemicals. In testimony to state lawmakers on Feb. 8, Grant Walker of the Maryland Professional Firefighters Association blamed PFAS in part for the number of cancer cases among firefighters. Cancer has overtaken cardiac events as the number one cause of death among firefighters in the last 20 years, according to WYPR.
UN expert says pollution is causing more deaths than COVID – Pollution by states and companies is contributing to more deaths globally than COVID-19, a UN environmental report published on Tuesday said, calling for “immediate and ambitious action” to ban some toxic chemicals.The report said pollution from pesticides, plastics and electronic waste is causing widespread human rights violations as well as at least 9 million premature deaths a year, and that the issue is largely being overlooked.The coronavirus pandemic has caused close to 5.9 million deaths, according to data aggregator Worldometer.“Current approaches to managing the risks posed by pollution and toxic substances are clearly failing, resulting in widespread violations of the right to a clean, healthy and sustainable environment,” the report’s author, UN Special Rapporteur David Boyd, concluded.Due to be presented next month to the UN Human Rights Council, which has declared a clean environment a human right, the document was posted on the Council’s website on Tuesday.It urges a ban on polyfluoroalkyl and perfluoroalkyl, man-made substances used in household products such as non-stick cookware that have been linked to cancer and dubbed “forever chemicals” because they don’t break down easily.It also recommends the clean-up of polluted sites and, in extreme cases, the possible relocations of affected communities – many of them poor, marginalized and indigenous – from so-called “sacrifice zones”.That term, originally used to describe nuclear test zones, was expanded in the report to include any heavily contaminated site or place rendered uninhabitable by climate change.
UN report: Pollution causing more deaths than first 18 months of COVID-19 pandemic -- Pollution contributes to more deaths around the world than COVID-19, according to a report released Tuesday by the United Nations. In the report, UN Special Rapporteur David Boyd wrote that at least 9 million premature deaths are caused by pollution or environmental toxins, twice the death toll of the first 18 months of the COVID-19 pandemic. Altogether, the report puts the number of worldwide deaths from pollution-related diseases at one in six, more than 15 times the number of deaths from violence. The single biggest environmental contributor to premature deaths is air pollution, which the report estimates causes some 7 million deaths annually. Pollution-related deaths are overwhelmingly concentrated in low- and middle-income nations, which account for more than 90 percent of such deaths. Frontline workers are also at particular risk, with more than 750,000 dying per year to exposure to substances such as exhaust, asbestos and particulate matter. Addressing these issues can be a challenge, Boyd wrote, because they stem from a combination of established and emerging threats. For example, lead exposure is still linked to some 1 million deaths a year, while further hazards are emerging in connection to per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS), so-called “forever chemicals.” However, the implications of the findings go beyond these pollutants’ impacts on individual people’s health, the report states. They are also interconnected with other environmental crises such as climate change and biodiversity loss. “The chemical industry exacerbates the climate emergency by consuming more than 10 per cent of fossil fuels produced globally and emitting an estimated 3.3 billion tons of greenhouse gas emissions annually. Global warming contributes to the release and remobilization of hazardous pollutants from melting glaciers and thawing permafrost,” Boyd wrote. “Pollution and toxic substances are also one of the five main drivers of the catastrophic decline in biodiversity, with particularly negative impacts on pollinators, insects, freshwater and marine ecosystems (including coral reefs) and bird populations.”
Microplastics increase the toxicity of organic pollutants in the environment by a factor of 10 - A new study by Tel Aviv University researchers found that in a marine environment, microplastics absorb and concentrate toxic organic substances and thus increase their toxicity by a factor of 10, which may lead to a severe impact on human health. The study was conducted by Dr. Ines Zucker and was recently published in the journal Chemosphere. Microplastics are found almost everywhere: in wells, in soil, in food products, in water bottles, and even in glaciers at the North Pole. The researchers explain that since plastic is not a natural material, it decomposes very slowly in nature, in a process that sometimes endures for thousands of years and, as part of this process, the same microplastics are formed. Throughout the process, the microplastic particles encounter environmental pollutants that attach to their surface, and as a pair, they may pose a threat to the health of the environment and to humans. In the study, the researchers examined the entire process that the microplastic undergoes, from the interactions it has with environmental pollutants to the release of the pollutants and the creation of increased toxicity. The researchers found that adsorption of those organic pollutants to the microplastics increases toxicity by a factor of 10 and may also cause severe impact on humans who are exposed to contaminated food and drink. Dr. Zucker explains that "in this study we showed that even very low concentrations of environmental pollutants, which are non-toxic to humans, once adsorb to the microplastic result in significant increase in toxicity. This is because microplastics are a kind of 'magnet' for environmental pollutants, concentrating them on its surfaces, 'ferrying' them through our digestive tract, and releasing them in a concentrated form in certain areas—thus causing increased toxicity." Each of the microplastic particles secreted in these areas has tremendous potential for harm as they serve as an effective and stable platform for any pollutant that they may encounter on their way to the human body." Dr. Zucker concludes that they "have found that the adsorption capacity of an oxidized microplastic particle (the configuration of the microplastic after undergoing environmental weathering) is significantly higher than a non-oxidized particle. After the environmental pollutantsadsorb to the microplastic, the pre-loaded particle may reach the digestive tract through the ingestion of contaminated food and water where it releases the toxins in close proximity to the cells of the digestive tract, thus increasing the toxicity of these substances. This is another painful reminder of the dire consequences of polluting the marine and terrestrial environment with hazardous industrial waste, which has unfortunately been saturated with plastic in recent decades. The dangers are not theoretical but are more tangible than ever.
An international treaty to curb plastic pollution risks being watered down. New Zealand needs to take a stand - Following years of discussions, support for a global treaty to stem the tide of plastic pollution is now widespread, with 75% of UN member states backing the idea.Next week, countries willnegotiate two competing resolutions in the lead-up to the UN Environment Assembly. Both resolutions call for the establishment of an intergovernmental negotiating committee to start work on a legally binding treaty.The negotiations are a crucial moment for the New Zealand government. More than 750 groups—including civil society, Indigenous peoples, trade unions and youth groups —are calling for a binding treaty that captures the full life cycle of plastics.New Zealand has so far only expressed general support for a plastics treaty, but has not co-sponsored either of the two resolutions. More than 300 scientists and research organizations are calling on all UN member states to accept nothing less than the key elements of the stronger Rwanda-Peru resolution.Global production of plastics is set to double and marineplastic pollution is predicted to triple by 2040.Both resolutions call for quick negotiations, a legally binding agreement, national action plans, technical support and innovations.But there are fundamental differences between the Rwanda-Peru and Japan resolutions in terms of the mandate and overall vision.The Peru-Rwanda resolution is commensurate with the gravity of the plastic pollution crisis. It has the backing of more than 70 countries, including 27 from the European Union. It was the result of a consultative process and has widespread support among civil-society organizations.Japan's resolution has only three co-sponsors to date: Cambodia, Palau and Sri Lanka. It has been described as the "skin" of the Rwanda-Peru resolution "without the muscle"—a significantly diluted version.The Rwanda-Peru resolution proposes a legally binding agreement which addresses the full life cycle of plastics. This covers the extraction of fossil fuels for the production of plastics, manufacture and consumption, end-of-life management and the safe retrieval of legacy plastics.It sets out an open mandate for the intergovernmental negotiating committee. This means negotiators could work on a broad range of issues relevant to plastic pollution as discussions progress. Japan's resolution proposes a closed mandate which severely limits what diplomats can consider. This significantly undermines the ability of the intergovernmental negotiating committee to prepare an effective treaty.This resolution refers to plastics' "life cycle" but its text prioritizes waste management interventions over preventative measures, while further limiting its scope to marine litter.New Zealand's government should support the key elements of the Rwanda-Peru resolution. It presents the absolute minimum needed to ensure the global community operates within the safe space of theplanetary boundary for "novel entities," including plastics.
Plastic, chemical pollution beyond planet's safe limit: study --The torrent of man-made chemical and plastic waste worldwide has massively exceeded limits safe for humanity or the planet, and production caps are urgently needed, scientists have concluded for the first time. There are an estimated 350,000 different manufactured chemicals on the market and large volumes of them end up in the environment. "The impacts that we're starting to see today are large enough to be impacting crucial functions of planet Earth and its systems", Bethanie Carney Almroth, co-author of a new study told AFP in an interview. The study, by the Stockholm Resilience Centre, comes ahead of a UN meeting in Nairobi at the end of the month on tackling plastic pollution "from source to sea", UN Environment Programme head Inger Andersen said on Monday. Chemicals and plastics are affecting biodiversity, piling additional stress on already stressed ecosystems. Pesticides kill living organisms indiscriminately and plastics are ingested by living things. "Some chemicals are interfering with hormone systems, disrupting growth, metabolism and reproduction in wildlife," Carney Almroth said. While greater efforts are needed to prevent these substances being released into the environment, scientists are now pushing for more drastic solutions, such as production caps. Recycling has so far yielded only mediocre results. Less than 10 percent of the world's plastic is currently recycled, even as production has doubled to 367 million tonnes since 2000. Today, the total weight of plastic on Earth is now four times the biomass of all living animals, according to recent studies. "What we're trying to say is that maybe we have to say, 'Enough is enough'. Maybe we can't tolerate more," the Sweden-based researcher said. "Maybe we have to put a cap on production. Maybe we need to say, 'We can't produce more than this'." For several years, the Stockholm Resilience Centre has been conducting studies on "planetary boundaries" in nine areas that influence Earth's stability, such as greenhouse gas emissions, freshwater usage and the ozone layer. The aim is to determine if mankind is in a "safe operating space" or if the limits are being exceeded and threaten the future of the planet. Breaching planetary boundaries
Here’s How the Biden Administration Can Prevent Needless Deaths From Pollution - One year after a newly inaugurated President Biden committed toactivating every bough of the government to address the climate crisis and a legacy of racial and environmental injustice — in Executive Order 14008 — elements of that elegant order are materializing.Where there wasn’t one before, a brand new White House Environmental Justice Advisory Council is up and running, with 26 members advising the administration on centering equity as it tackles disaster response, climate change and the energy transition. A handful offederal programs are at work channeling 40 percent of the benefits of federal investments to “disadvantaged communities,” though officials have yet to define just what that means. Environmental justice groupsare demanding more action still, such as rapid progress on the now-overdue revamp of a climate and environmental justice mapping application, which will help ensure that this investment maximizes equity and social progress by identifying frontline and fenceline communities that have borne the brunt of pollution and climate risks.But one existing environmental justice tool, which officials have let lie largely dormant across administrations, has particular potential to bring some form of justice to communities that have experienced environmental racism for generations.Title VI of the Civil Rights Act of 1964 prevents any program that receives federal funding from discriminating on the basis of “race, color or national origin,” whether by denying benefits to or excluding certain groups from participation in public process. As the Department of Justice has emblazoned on its website, ahead of the passage of the landmark statute, President John F. Kennedy noted: “Simple justice requires that public funds, to which all taxpayers of all races … contribute, not be spent in any fashion which encourages, entrenches, subsidizes or results in racial … discrimination.”The law empowers communities alleging they’ve been discriminated against by a group receiving federal funding — with environmental cases, typically state or local regulators that issue permits to industrial developers — to file complaints with whichever agency has provided the funds, or to bring a lawsuit in federal court against that entity. It also instructs federal agencies delivering funds, such as the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), to stop funding programs found to have acted discriminatorily, or to refer the matter to the Department of Justice.Nearly six decades later, whole bodies of research reveal that government agencies, often through inaction, have contributed to the formation of “sacrifice zones” — communities where residents die of illnesses more often and earlier than others due to the superfluous siting of polluting operations nearby. In 2021, for instance, ProPublicapublished the most detailed map to date revealing that census tracts where the majority of residents are people of color are exposed to 40 percent more cancer-causing air pollutants when compared with census tracts that are mostly white.
Harris Says Replacing Lead Pipes Is a Priority, Despite Limited Funding --Some civil rights leaders have grown frustrated with the lack of action behind administration proposals that would help Black and Latino communities. Schkeema Troutman had just started describing the many difficulties of trying to raise a family in a city with high levels of lead in its drinking water when Vice President Kamala Harris noticed the mother of three was not being heard. Ms. Troutman’s microphone was not working, limiting her voice to nearly a whisper at a round-table discussion here on Friday. So Ms. Harris stood and handed her microphone over to amplify Ms. Troutman’s story.“You have so many different things to worry about,” Ms. Troutman said of owning a home near lead service lines, and the dozens of people in the room could hear her.“That’s the thing,” Ms. Harris responded. “You should not have to worry about that.”The brief exchange highlighted the vice president’s aim in traveling to Newark, which the administration views as a model of how a community can overcome water contamination after years of neglect. But for Ms. Harris and the White House, the trip was also an opportunity to amplify issues directly affecting underserved communities, particularly amid rising anxiety from civil rights advocates and grass-roots organizations after seeing President Biden’s sprawling proposals centered on racial equity slimmed during negotiations with a divided Congress.The White House has made removing every lead pipe within 10 years in the United States a centerpiece of its plan to address racial disparities and environmental issues in the wake of water contamination crises in recent years from Newark to Flint, Mich. As many as 10 million lead service lines still deliver water to schools, offices, homes and day care centers throughout the country….
Nearly half of US bald eagles suffer lead poisoning ++America's national bird is more beleaguered than previously believed, with nearly half of bald eagles tested across the U.S. showing signs of chronic lead exposure, according to a study published Thursday. While the bald eagle population has rebounded from the brink of extinction since the U.S. banned the pesticide DDT in 1972, harmful levels of toxic lead were found in the bones of 46% of bald eagles sampled in 38 states from California to Florida, researchers reported in the journal Science. Similar rates of lead exposure were found in golden eagles, which scientists say means the raptors likely consumed carrion or prey contaminated by lead from ammunition or fishing tackle. The blood, bones, feathers and liver tissue of 1,210 eagles sampled from 2010 to 2018 were examined to assess chronic and acute lead exposure. "This is the first time for any wildlife species that we've been able to evaluate lead exposure and population level consequences at a continental scale," said study co-author Todd Katzner, a wildlife biologist at U.S. Geological Survey in Boise, Idaho. "It's sort of stunning that nearly 50% of them are getting repeatedly exposed to lead." Lead is a neurotoxin that even in low doses impairs an eagle's balance and stamina, reducing its ability to fly, hunt and reproduce. In high doses, lead causes seizures, breathing difficulty and death. The study estimated that lead exposure reduced the annual population growth of bald eagles by 4% and golden eagles by 1%. Besides suppressing eagle population growth, lead exposure reduces their resilience in facing future challenges, such as climate change or infectious diseases.
Birds suddenly drop from the sky in surveillance video — Security footage shows how a flock of birds drop dead mid-flight in the northern Mexican city of Chihuahua. Sectional police of Alvaro Obregon reported that close to 100 yellow-headed blackbirds that migrate from northern Canada to Mexico for the winter dropped from the sky on Feb. 7. People in the community were stunned to find the birds dead on the streets and sidewalks. A veterinarian told police the birds could have died after inhaling toxic fumes from a heater nearby or because of an overcharge from electricity cables. Another theory was that a predator was behind the strange event. Ornithologist and biology professor at Allegheny College in Pennsylvania, Ronald L. Mumme toldNewsweek he thought a large bird was behind it. "Based on the birds' behavior, my suspicion is that a falcon or other bird-eating raptor attacked the flock in flight, and during evasive maneuvers the flock members dove, became disoriented, and many crashed to the ground and injured themselves," he said. "I don't think any birds were having problems until they collided with the ground or buildings. It looks like most of the birds were able to fly away, but a significant number could not." Two more experts told The Guardian they agreed with Mumme, blaming the event on "flock murmurating to avoid a predator raptor." Authorities said they still don't know for sure what caused the deaths. A similar incident was reported in Wales in March 2020 when dozens of starlings were found dead on a street. Experts speculated the birds had gone into a dive murmuration, or formation, together and hit the pavement. In 2014, USA Today reported that birds had fallen from the sky in St. Louis, Michigan, because they ate insects and grubs from contaminated soil. A forensic study found lethal levels of DDT in the birds.
Top most insane multiple vortex tornadoes of the last 10 years with Reed Timmer - (video 32:42) The top most intense multiple vortex tornadoes of the last 20 years of storm chasing with Reed Timmer's Team Dominator.
Drought in U.S. West Is Driest Period in Centuries – WSJ --In the American West, the last 22 years have been the driest period since at least 800 A.D., according to a new study. The drought, which began in 2000, is also on track to surpass the duration of a megadrought in the 1500s, according to Park Williams, lead author of the study, which was published Monday in the journal Nature Climate Change. While there is no one definition for megadrought, the phrase is generally used to signify a drought that has persisted for decades. “Rather than starting to die away after wet years in 2017 and 2019, the 2000s drought has ramped up with authority in 2020-2021, making clear that it’s now as strong as it ever was,” said Mr. Williams, a climate scientist at the University of California, Los Angeles. The study found that around 42% of the current drought can be attributed to climate change from human activity. It looked at 29 models that simulated a world without humans to see how human activity has affected the current drought’s duration. Mr. Williams and his fellow researchers focused on a part of the U.S. that includes all of California, Nevada, Arizona and Utah, as well as portions of Oregon, Wyoming, Colorado, New Mexico, Northern Mexico. Small sections of both Texas and Montana were also included. “Up to this point, 2002 was by far the worst year of the 2000s drought, and the driest year in nearly 300 years,” Mr. Williams said, adding that drought severity in 2021 was nearly identical to that of 2002. “So now two of the driest years in nearly 300 years have occurred just 20 years apart and within the same extended drought period,” he said. Exceptionally dry soil in 2021 allowed the current drought to overtake the 1500s megadrought as the driest 22-year period in the region since 800 A.D., the study said. The scientists primarily looked at thousands of tree ring samples to compare the effects of the current drought with previous ones, in addition to records of soil moisture. Generally speaking, tree rings are wider in years with more moisture, and less in dry years. The study is an update of one originally published in 2020, which evaluated the long-term historical context of the drought in the U.S. West, looking at conditions from 2000-18. With the persistence of drought conditions, and an especially dry 2021, Mr. Williams said they wanted to recontextualize the current situation with historic droughts in the region. The researchers forecast the current drought will very likely persist through 2022, which would match, and possibly surpass, the duration of the late-1500s megadrought. That drought lasted 23 years, and after 22 years, conditions were improving, not persisting, Mr. Williams said.
Drought fueled by climate change the worst in 1,200 years: scientists - The megadrought gripping the American West has generated the driest two decades in the region in at least 1,200 years, and human-caused climate change has fueled the problem, scientists said on Monday.In their research, published in the journal Nature Climate Change, scientists analyzed droughts in southwestern North America dating back to the year 800 and found that conditions during this century are more severe than the megadrought in the late 1500s.Researchers also warned that the conditions will likely continue through 2022 and persist for years. A megadrought is defined as a prolonged and severe drought spanning two decades or longer, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration."Rather than starting to die away after wet years in 2017 and 2019, the 2000s drought has ramped up with authority in 2020-2021, making clear that it's now as strong as it ever was," said A. Park Williams, a climate scientist at UCLA."There is no evidence that the 2000s drought is starting to relent," added Williams, who led the analysis using tree-ring data. While researchers said the U.S. West would be in drought regardless of climate change, they calculated that 42% of its severity can be attributed to higher temperatures due to human-related causes, citing greenhouse gas emissions trapping heat in the atmosphere.According to the U.S. drought monitor, nearly 95% of the region is experiencing drought conditions, and along with it, more intense wildfires and declining water supplies in the Colorado River region. Water levels at the two largest reservoirs in the country, Lake Mead and Lake Powell, are at their lowest levels ever recorded. And in 2020, the worst wildfire season on record burned more than 10 million acres in the U.S.Federal officials last year ordered the first-ever water cuts for the Colorado River Basin, affecting supplies of water and power for more than 40 million people across the West. In California, Gov. Gavin Newsom asked residents last year to curb household water consumption by 15% amid record-breaking temperatures. And water officials recently warned that California could face its third consecutive dryyear due to a significant lack of snow this season.
Southwestern megadrought worst in 1,200 years: study -- The extreme weather conditions that have desiccated North America’s Southwest over the past 22 years have now become the region’s driest “megadrought" since the year 800, a new study has found. The ongoing megadrought has supplanted the previous record-holder: a late-16th century dry spell previously considered the worst such drought in the past 1,200 years, according to the study, published on Monday in Nature Climate Change. And the study’s authors in large part attributed the severity of the current megadrought — defined as a drought lasting two decades or more — to human-induced climate change. “Without climate change, the past 22 years would have probably still been the driest period in 300 years,” Park Williams, lead author and a geographer at UCLA, said in a statement. “But it wouldn’t be holding a candle to the megadroughts of the 1500s, 1200s or 1100s,” he added. The scientists focused on the area from southern Montana to northern Mexico, from the Pacific Ocean to the Rocky Mountains — finding repeat megadrought periods from 800 through 1600 that exceeded any subsequent event in severity through the 1900s. To pinpoint particularly severe stretches of drought, the authors analyzed tree ring patterns — which reveal critical information about annual soil moisture — and cross-checked their results with historical climate data. Ultimately, they found that such dry conditions coincided with high degrees of “soil moisture deficit,” a metric that compares soil moisture with normal saturation levels. The scientists found that since the year 2000, the average soil moisture deficit was twice as severe as the deficit in any 20th century drought — surpassing the driest periods of all the most severe megadroughts in the past 1,200 years. Soil moisture plays a critical role in drought — impacting runoff levels, streamflow, agricultural productivity, ecosystem health and wildlife activity, according to the study. Although the scientists agreed that climate change has become a significant driver of megadroughts, they also acknowledged that some dramatic shifts in dryness and water availability occurred in the Southwest before human-induced climate change became a factor in the 20th century. Well before humans began inflicting their carbon footprint upon the Southwest, the region was experiencing “infamous megadroughts that occurred repeatedly from 800-1600,” the study said. Yet while today’s conditions would likely have been dry even without climate change, it would have been much less so, the scientists contended. Human-caused climate change, they said, has been responsible for about 42 percent of the soil moisture deficit in the region since 2000, according to their study. Climate change is making droughts more severe as warming temperatures cause increased evaporation — drying out soil and vegetation, the authors said. From 2000 to 2021, for example, temperatures in the region of study were 0.91 degrees Celsius (1.64 degrees Fahrenheit) higher than average temperatures from 1950 to 1999, the study found. As of just last week, the U.S. Drought Monitor indicated that 95 percent of the Western U.S. was experiencing drought conditions, while in the summer of 2021, the Colorado River’s two main reservoirs — Lake Mead and Lake Powell — had plummeted to their lowest levels since record-tracking began in 1906, the authors noted. With dry conditions likely to persist in the region, the scientists estimated that it would take multiple wet years to remediate the damage.
Even in Southern California, wildfire frequency is likely to increase by end of century - California's massive fire seasons the past two years are part of a trend that scientists have traced back for more than four decades. The area consumed each year by fires has increased significantly over that period—particularly in the Sierra Nevada and northern parts of the state. Although Southern California has had its share of wildfires in that span, too, the region hasn't experienced the same increase. But that disparity between north and south is not likely to continue. The number of days per year with increased risk for more and larger wildfires in Southern California is projected to increase significantly through the end of the century, according to new UCLA-led research. The study, which is published in the Nature journal Communications Earth & Environment, analyzes data dating to 1975. Researchers found no substantial increase in amount of area burned per year over the past 45 years. "If you look at the whole state, there's been a statistically significant upswing in area burned," said UCLA climate scientist Glen MacDonald, co-author of the paper. "The northern coast and Sierra Nevada are driving that. In the central and south coast, there's no significant trend toward increases in the annual amount of area burned." Under a scenario in which the average temperature in Southern California increases by almost 9 degrees Fahrenheit by 2100—which would be likely if there is no significant reduction in greenhouse gas emissions—the study projects that the number of days with a high risk for fire would nearly double to about 58 days per year. Even under a more conservative scenario, in which people take stronger action to slow climate change and the region's average temperature increases by about 5.4 degrees Fahrenheit, the number of high-risk days are expected to increase by an average of about 60% per year by the end of the century. The researchers reached their conclusions in part by zooming in on low-resolution global climate models to predict regional conditions in more detail. They also examined which climatic factors correlate with large wildfires and looked at long-term projections for greenhouse gas emissions to see how those factors are likely to change over time.
Fewer rainy days leading to earlier spring in northern climes -- A drop in the total number of rainy days each year is contributing to an earlier arrival of spring for plants in northern climates, a new study finds. Scientists have known that warmer temperatures due to climate change have led to the first leaves coming out at earlier dates in recent decades. But this study shows that fewer rainy days plays the second largest role in this early leaf-out, said Desheng Liu, co-author of the study and professor of geography at The Ohio State University. "Scientists have looked mainly at how temperature affects when leaves first appear and, if they considered precipitation at all, it was just the total amount," Liu said. "But it isn't the total amount of precipitation that matters the most—it is how often it rains." In the new study, published recently in the journal Nature Climate Change, the researchers calculated that the decline in rainfall frequency will lead to spring arriving an additional one to two days earlier each decade through 2100 compared to what scientists previously thought. "We should expect an even earlier spring in the future compared to what current models tell us," said study co-author Jian Wang, a doctoral student in geography at Ohio State. The researchers analyzed data sets from the United States, Europe and China (all north of 30 degrees latitude, which includes most of the United States). The data included the dates each year when observers noted the first evidence of leaves. They also used satellite images from 1982 to 2018, which recorded when vegetation started to green. They compared that with data on how many rainy days there were each month at the sites studied. Results showed that as rainy days declined over the years, spring arrived earlier for most of the areas in the Northern Hemisphere. The one exception was grasslands mostly located in semi-arid regions, where fewer rainy days delayed spring slightly. Why do fewer rainy days lead to earlier arrival of spring? There are two main reasons, according to the study. One is that rainy days are also cloudy days. Fewer rainy days in late winter and early spring means that trees and other plants are receiving more solar radiation earlier in the year, which stimulates leaf growth. Fewer days with clouds also means daytime temperatures will be higher with more sunlight heating the ground and atmosphere. Nighttime temperatures will cool more rapidly without clouds to trap the heat. "This contrasting effect earlier in the year makes the plants think it is spring and start leaf onset earlier and earlier," Wang said.
Extremely heavy rain hits Petropolis, causing deadly floods and landslides, Brazil(videos) Extremely heavy rain hit the city of Petropolis (population 306 700), Brazil on February 15, 2022, causing severe floods and landslides in which at least 38 people lost their lives. Due to the severity of the event, the death toll has risen from 18 to 23 in a matter of hours and to 38 on February 16. By February 17, the number of fatalities rose to 94. Search and rescue operations are still in progress and the number of fatalities is still expected to rise. Petropolis is located in a mountainous region just north of the capital Rio de Janeiro. Hourly rainfall rate went up to an extraordinary 125.8 mm (4.95 inches) at 17:15 LT in the Alto da Serra rain gauge. In Sao Sebastiao, as much as 259.8 mm (10.2 inches) of rain fell in 6 hours to 21:10 LT -- close to the amount that fell during the previous 30 days. Most of it fell in just 3 hours, according to the state fire department. Such hourly rates and total amounts in 3 hours are rare for any part of the world. All that rain caused rivers to overflow and turned streets into raging torrents of mud and debris. Brazil's Civil Defence Secretariat said that 269 landslides had been recorded. In one of the worst affected neighborhoods, 80 houses are estimated to have been affected. This mountainous region is prone to landslides. Its worst landslide event took place in 2011 when more than 900 people lost their lives.
Iceland hit by record-breaking waves, among the highest ever measured in the world --A violent bomb cyclone affecting Iceland on February 7 and 8, 2022, produced hurricane-force winds and record-breaking waves at the southern coast of the country. One of the waves reached 40 m (131 feet) and blew off the scale, making it by far the highest measured wave off the coast of Iceland and among the highest ever measured in the world. Garðskagi wave measuring buoys repeatedly reported 30 m (98 feet) waves during the storm, breaking the previous record wave height in Iceland set on January 9, 1990, at 25 m (82 feet) However, one of the waves was so powerful that the meter struck out at 40 m (131 feet) and therefore it's currently uncertain how high the wave actually was. Further analysis of the 40-m high wave is in progress. If it turns out to be correct, this is by far the highest measured wave off the coast of Iceland and among the highest that have been measured in the world. The southern coast of the country is one of the most exposed coastal areas on Earth, so it can be expected that the waves will reach a height that is the highest that exists.
Storm Ylenia (Dudley) wreaks havoc across northern Europe, leaving at least 5 people dead(videos) Storm Ylenia, known as Dudley in the United Kingdom, hit Germany on February 18, 2022, wreaking havoc across the country and leaving at least three people dead. The storm also affected neighboring countries, including Netherlands and Poland, where two people lost their lives. Ylenia brought winds speeds up to 152 km/h (95 mph) to Germany, causing traffic chaos and widespread power outages. The worst affected were the states of North Rhine-Westphalia and Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania. Residents living in the affected region were advised against driving unless strictly necessary and to keep a distance from buildings, scaffolding, power lines and wooded areas like forests and national parks. The national rail operator canceled long-distance trains in the states of Lower Saxony, Bremen, Hamburg, Schleswig-Holstein, Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, Berlin and Brandenburg. All trains were canceled in Lower Saxony because of damage from the storm to the south of Hamburg, the operator said, with disruptions across the network expected until Saturday.1 Lufthansa canceled 20 flights and announced there would be delays because of bad weather. More than 170 towns and cities were affected by power outages at 12:30 UTC, with around 50 000 affected customers in the state of North Rhine-Westphalia.2 Water inundated streets in Schleswig-Holstein, Germany's northernmost state, with levels rising more than 1.5 meters (4.9 feet) above the average height. The Elbe River's waters rose to 1.5 - 2 m (4.9 - 6.6 feet) higher than normal. Schools were closed in North Rhine-Westphalia, Bavaria and Lower Saxony, among others, while Bremen moved to online schooling. In Germany, the storm is blamed for the deaths of at least 3 people. Strong winds damaged more than 500 homes in Poland and claimed the lives of 2 people.Before hitting Germany, Ylena (Dudley) moved over the U.K., bringing widespread disruption to its northern parts on Wednesday night, February 16, This was the first of two powerful windstorms to hit Europe this week. On Friday, February 18, Storm Eunice is expected to deliver an even stronger blow to the United Kingdom and then move toward northern Europe.
Rare Red Weather Warning issued - Storm Eunice expected to bring extremely strong winds, U.K. - Storm Eunice is currently developing over the Atlantic Ocean and is already deepening as it rapidly approaches the United Kingdom, forcing the UK Met Office to issue a rare Red Weather Warning. Eunice is expected to bring extremely strong winds and continued disruption for much of the U.K. on Friday, February 18. This is the most powerful storm to hit the southern U.K. over the past couple of years. Eunice will end up as even more powerful than Storm Dudley which brought widespread disruption to northern parts of the U.K. during Wednesday night, February 16, Met Office meteorologist Aidan McGivern said. "It might be relatively calm on Thursday evening, but quite quickly during the early hours of Friday as this powerful storm approaches those winds will rapidly ramp up. The strongest winds will be to the south of Eunice as it tracks eastwards across the U.K." The Red Weather Warning for wind covers southwest coastal areas of the UK, where the most significant gusts in exposed areas could be in excess of 145 km/h (90 mph) from early Friday morning. Further inland and within the wider Amber Warning area, gusts will still be significant and damaging for many, with 110 - 130 km/h (70 - 80 mph) gusts possible.1 With such severe weather impacting the UK, people should stay up to date with the latest warnings as they could be updated, officials at the Met Office said. Red weather warnings are rarely issued by the Met Office, with the last one coinciding with Storm Arwen in November 2021, but you’d have to go back to March 2018 for the last red warning for wind before that. The wider Amber Warning area highlights the ongoing risk of high impacts such as disruption to power, travel and other services. Damage is also likely for buildings and trees, with beach material being thrown providing another risk near coastlines. The warnings reflect the expected track of Storm Eunice eastwards across the central portion of the U.K., with the strongest winds expected to the south of Eunice. On the northern flank of Storm Eunice, there’s a risk of snow for some in Northern Ireland, northern England and southern Scotland. A Yellow Warning has been issued for snow, highlighting possible blizzard conditions for these areas. Much of the snow will be confined to the high ground within the warning areas, with up to 20 cm (7.9 inches) possible in the Pennines. There remains a risk of some snow to lower ground, although with less significant accumulations.
Tropical Cyclone "Dovi" brings destructive winds to New Zealand after wreaking havoc across Vanuatu and New Caledonia - Remnants of Tropical Cyclone "Dovi" hit New Zealand's North Island on February 13, 2022, bringing destructive winds, heavy rains, and large waves. Authorities issued severe weather warnings from Northland to Christchurch ahead of the storm, urging people not to travel unless absolutely necessary. Dovi formed on February 9 as the 7th named storm of the 2021/22 Australian region cyclone season. It passed over New Caledonia and Vanuatu on February 9 and 10, bringing heavy rains and winds up to 80 km/h (50 mph), with gusts to 154 km/h (95 mph). In Vanuatu, Dovi turned roads into violent rivers in low lying areas including one major road leading out of Port Vila.1 "We've had a few dozen families in the outlying areas of Port Vila evacuated to refugee centers, nonetheless, the red alert warning has been lifted as of last night by the National Disaster Management Office and now we are focused on clean up and recovery," Port Vila-based journalist Dan McGarry said. A level 2 hurricane alert was issued for parts of New Caledonia where Dovi caused flooding and downed trees and telephone lines. Several accommodation centers were opened across the Provinces of the Loyalty Islands, North, and South, while all commercial, public, and school activities remain suspended. In addition, water supply disruptions have been affecting the areas of Auteuil, La Couvelee, Koe, and Koghis.2 At 00:00 UTC on February 11, Dovi's center was located about 175 km (110 miles) south of Nouméa City, New Caledonia. The cyclone had maximum sustained winds of 150 km/h (90 mph), as reported by Meteo France New Caledonia. By 18:00 UTC on February 11, maximum sustained winds dropped to 110 km/h (70 mph) -- below Category 1 hurricane equivalent on the Saffir Simpson scale. While New Zealand started feeling its effects on Saturday, February 12, the storm moved over North Island on Sunday, bringing destructive winds, heavy rains and large waves. At the peak of the storm, an estimated 100 000 customers lost power. Wind gusts between 130 km/h to 155 km/h (80 - 95 mph) have been recorded in the central North Island on Sunday afternoon (LT). 152.5 mm (6 inches) of rain fell in Kelburn, Wellington today, making it is second wettest day since 1939. Powerco said nearly 34 000 of its customers lost power, 20 000 of whom were still in the dark as of Sunday night. An estimated 6 000 people have no electricity in Te Tai Tokerau tonight, the majority are supplied by Top Energy in the Far North. Northpower expects 1 000 people in the Kaipara and Whangārei districts will spend the night without power. Vector said around 50 000 homes and businesses were without power at the peak of the storm in the Auckland region.3 Some customers might remain without power for several days. Air New Zealand said the weather has forced it to cancel at least 100 flights.
Multiple landslides hit Gisborne, two large slides in Southern Alps, New Zealand - Heavy rainfall brought by the passage of Ex-Tropical Cyclone "Dovi" caused numerous landslides in New Zealand, some of which were notably large.The southern end of the East Cape Road sustained serious damage in the heavy rain, and it may be two or three weeks before the road to the East Cape Lighthouse is reopened, Gisborne Herald reports.1Five homes remain cut off from the rest of the country, and some of the people living there had to be choppered out.From February 6 to 8, 2022, East Cape registered a total of 298.5 mm (11.7 inches) of rain. Of that amount, 171 mm (6.7 inches) fell in 12 hours, 153 mm (6 inches) in 6 hours and 111 mm (4.3 inches) in just 3 hours. Hourly rates were as high as 45 mm (1.7 inches).The landslides that hit East Cape would probably be characterized as disrupted slides of earth, rock and debris, said Dr. Dave Petley of The Landslide Blog who received excellent images from Dr. Murry Cave, the Principal Scientist at Gisborne District Council.2"Most appear to originate in the soil/regolith cover on these very steep slopes. On the lower slopes, the width of the failures is much higher. Note that the hills in the background have not suffered landslides to this degree, suggesting that this was driven by a highly localized rainfall event and/or by a local geological factor."Substantial rainfall was also recorded in New Zealand's Southern Alps in recent weeks, including 1 177 mm (46.3 inches) in just three days at Tuke Hut in Westland. As a result, two large landslides have occurred there.One of these events occurred on the east face of Mount Tasman, which is the second-highest peak in New Zealand. This landslide has a rock volume of about 169 000 m3 (5.9 million feet3), with a runout distance of 1 800 m (5 900 feet) and a fall height of 750 m (2 460 feet).Another large slide took place at Beatrice in the Hooker Valley"The Matiriki Project team had identified the source as a creeping landslide, which duly collapsed," Petley said.3, 4"This might be interesting to look at using InSAR. This is a rather larger failure – the estimated volume is 704 000 m3 (25 million feet3), with a runout distance of 1 020 m (3 340 feet) and a vertical height change of 435 m (1 427 feet)."
A burning cargo ship full of Porsches and VWs is adrift in the mid-Atlantic -A ship carrying cars from Germany to the United States caught fire in the Atlantic Ocean on Wednesday, forcing the crew's 22 members to abandon the vessel and leave it burning and adrift.The nearly 650-foot-long ship Felicity Ace is capable of carrying 4,000 cars and was loaded with Porsches and Volkswagens.The Portuguese navy rescued all 22 members of the crew from the ship, which was scheduled to arrive in Davisville, R.I., on Feb. 23. The crew was taken by helicopter to Faial island in the Azores, The Associated Pressreported. None of the crew members were hurt.As of Thursday, the fire is still active on the ship, the Portuguese navy reported.The Volkswagen Group said in a statement to the AP that Felicity Ace was transporting to the U.S. "vehicles that the German automaker manufactured." The company declined to comment further on the effect the fire may have on customers in the U.S. or the automotive group itself.A spokesperson for Porsche Cars North America told NBC Bay Area in San Jose, Calif., that the manufacturer is in contact with the shipping company, as a number of its cars are among the cargo."Our immediate thoughts are of relief that the 22 crew of the merchant ship "Felicity Ace" are safe and well. A number of our cars are among the cargo. We are in contact with the shipping company and the details of the cars on board are now known. While it remains too early to confirm what occurred and next steps, we are – along with our colleagues at Porsche AG – supporting our customers and our dealers as best we can to find solutions. Anyone concerned by this incident and the implications on the car they've ordered should contact their Porsche dealer," the company said in its statement. The ship's owner is arranging an oceangoing tug, but Portuguese navy spokesman Cmdr. José Sousa Luís said the ship is unlikely to be towed to a port in the Azores because of its size, the AP reported.
Asteroid 2022 CG7 flew past Earth at just 0.13 LD --A newly-discovered asteroid designated 2022 CG7 flew past Earth at a distance of 0.13 LD / 0.00034 AU (50 860 km / 31 600 miles) at 15:29 UTC on February 12, 2022. This is the 24thknown asteroid to fly past Earth within 1 lunar distance since the start of the year. The 25th -- 2022 CO6 -- will fly past us at 08:53 UTC on February 15. 2022 CG7 was first observed at Catalina Sky Survey, Arizona on February 13, one day after it made its close approach to Earth.The object has an estimated diameter between 5.1 and 11 m (16.7 - 36 feet) and it belongs to the Apollo group of asteroids.
Asteroid 2022 CO6 to fly past Earth at 0.58 LD ---A newly-discovered asteroid designated 2022 CO6 will fly past Earth at a distance of 0.58 LD / 0.00150 AU (224 400 km / 139 430 miles) at 08:53 UTC on February 15, 2022. This is the 25thknown asteroid to fly past Earth within 1 lunar distance since the start of the year. The object was first observed at MAP, San Pedro de Atacama, Chile on February 10, five days before its close approach. 2022 CO6 belongs to the Aten group of asteroids and has an estimated diameter between 20 and 44 m (65 - 144 feet), making it the largest so far this year.
US could see a century's worth of sea rise in just 30 years - America's coastline will see sea levels rise in the next 30 years by as much as they did in the entire 20th century, with major Eastern cities hit regularly with costly floods even on sunny days, a government report warns.By 2050, seas lapping against the U.S. shore will be 10 to 12 inches (0.25 to 0.3 meters) higher, with parts of Louisiana and Texas projected to see waters a foot and a half (0.45 meters) higher, according to a 111-page report issued Tuesday by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and six other federal agencies.The projected increase is especially alarming given that in the 20th century, seas along the Atlantic coast rose at the fastest clip in 2,000 years.LeBoeuf warned that the cost will be high, pointing out that much of the American economy and 40% of the population are along the coast.However, the worst of the long-term sea level rise from the melting of ice sheets in Antarctica and Greenland probably won't kick in until after 2100, said ocean service oceanographer William Sweet, the report's lead author.Warmer water expands, and the melting ice sheets and glaciers adds more water to the worlds oceans.The report "is the equivalent of NOAA sending a red flag up" about accelerating the rise in sea levels, said University of Wisconsin-Madison geoscientist Andrea Dutton, a specialist in sea level rise who wasn't part of the federal report. The coastal flooding the U.S. is seeing now "will get taken to a whole new level in just a couple of decades.""We can see this freight train coming from more than a mile away," Dutton said in an email. "The question is whether we continue to let houses slide into the ocean."Sea level rises more in some places than others because of sinking land, currents and water from ice melt. The U.S. will get slightly more sea level rise than the global average. And the greatest rise in the U.S. will be on the Gulf and East Coasts, while the West Coast and Hawaii will be hit less than average, Sweet said. For example, between now and 2060, expect almost 25 inches (0.63 meters) of sea level rise in Galveston, Texas, and just under 2 feet (0.6 meters) in St. Petersburg, Florida, while only 9 inches (0.23 inches) in Seattle and 14 inches (0.36 meters) in Los Angeles, the report said.
Sea-level rise will rise one foot along U.S. coastlines by 2050, NOAA says, driven by climate change - The Washington Post -- The shorelines of the United States are projected to face an additional foot of rising seas over the next three decades, intensifying the threat of flooding and erosion to coastal communities across the country, according to a report released Tuesday by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Human-caused climate change, driven mostly by the burning of fossil fuels, has accelerated global sea level rise to the fastest rate in more than 3,000 years. The report by NOAA, NASA and five other federal agencies — updating a study from 2017 — predicts that ocean levels along U.S. coasts will increase as much by 2050 as they did over the past century.Deputy weather editor Kasha Patel breaks down a study that visualized what Earth could look like if global temperatures rise by 1.5 or 3 degrees Celsius. (Casey Silvestri/The Washington Post)This amount of water battering the coasts “will create a profound increase in the frequency of coastal flooding, even in the absence of storms or heavy rainfall,” NOAA said.“We’re unfortunately headed for a flood regime shift,” said William Sweet, an oceanographer at the NOAA National Ocean Service and the nation’s top scientist on sea level rise. “There will be water in the streets unless action is taken in more and more communities.”Drawing on data from tidal gauges and satellite imagery as well as cutting-edge models from the most recent United Nations report on climate change, the NOAA analysis gives decade-by-decade projections for sea-level rise for all U.S. states and territories over the next 100 years. Advances in ice sheet modeling and better observational data allowed the authors to give more definitive near-term projections than ever before, Sweet said. Even if the world takes swift action to curb carbon emissions, he said, the trajectory for sea level rise “is more or less set over the next 30 years.” Kristina Dahl, a principal climate scientist with the Union of Concerned Scientists, said research she and colleagues have done suggest that 10 to 12 inches of sea level rise by 2050 would put roughly 140,000 homes at risk of “chronic inundation,” or flooding every other week on average.Already, she said, high-tide flooding in places such as Charleston, S.C., has quadrupled in frequency since the 1970s. Other regions, from Louisiana to New Jersey to the Eastern Shore of Maryland, have wrestled with flooding that has become more common and costly.“They’re already having to make difficult decisions or major investments to cope with the flooding they are seeing,” said Dahl, who was not involved in Tuesday’s report. While other coastal communities have avoided major impacts, “they will have to start grappling with these same kind of issues.” Looking ahead to the end of the century, the amount of planet-warming pollution people release into the atmosphere could mean the difference between sea levels stabilizing at about two feet above the historical average or surging by almost eight feet, NOAA reports. Federal report: High-tide flooding could happen ‘every other day’ by late this century.
What drives sea level rise? Report warns of one-foot rise within three decades and more frequent flooding -Sea levels are rising, and that will bring profound flood risks to large parts of the Gulf and Atlantic coasts over the next three decades. A new report led by scientists at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration warns that the U.S. should prepare for 10–12 inches of relative sea level rise on average in the next 30 years. The rise is due to both sinking land and global warming. And given the greenhouse emissions released so far, the country is unlikely to be able to avoid it.That much sea level rise means cities like Miami that see nuisance flooding during high tides today will experience more damaging floods by midcentury. Nationally, the report expects moderate coastal flooding will occur 10 times as often by 2050. Without significant adaptations, high tides will more frequently pour into streets and disrupt coastal infrastructure, including ports that are essential for supply chains and the economy.The higher ocean will also bring seawater farther inland. By the end of the century, an average of 2 feet of sea level rise or more is likely, depending on how much the world its cuts greenhouse gas emissions. As a geoscientist, I study sea level rise and the effects of climate change. Here's a quick explanation of two main ways global warming is affecting ocean levels and their threat to the coasts.As greenhouse gases from fossil fuel use and other human activities accumulate in the atmosphere, they trap energy that would otherwise escape into space. That energy causes average global surface temperatures to rise, especially the upper layers of the ocean.Thermal expansion happens when the ocean heats up. The heat causes sea water molecules to move slightly farther apart, taking up more space. The result is the ocean rises higher, flooding more land.Over the past several decades, about 40% of global sea level rise has been due to the effect of thermal expansion. The ocean, which covers about two-thirds of the Earth's surface, has been absorbing and storing more than 90% of the excess heat added to the climate system due to greenhouse gas emissions.The other major factor in rising sea levels is melting land ice. Mountain glaciers and polar ice sheets are diminishing at rates faster than natural systems can replace them.When land ice melts, that meltwater eventually flows into the ocean, adding new quantities of water to the ocean and increasing the total ocean mass.About 50% of global sea level rise was induced by land ice melt during the past several decades.Currently, the polar ice sheets in Greenland and Antarctica hold enough frozen waters that if they melted completely, it would raise the global sea level by up to 200 feet, or 60–70 meters—about the height of the Statue of Liberty.Climate change is melting sea ice as well. However, because this ice already floats at the ocean's surface and displaces a certain amount of liquid water below, this melting does not contribute to sea level rise.
The Arctic could see ice-free summers by 2035, reshaping global shipping routes - There might be a faster way to ship supplies around the world in the not too distant future. With melting sea ice in the Arctic, Russia and China are expanding their shipping infrastructure over the Eurasian continent. Last year's Suez Canal incident, when a ship got stuck and blocked global traffic for several days, was seen as just the argument to entice businesses to explore using Arctic shipping routes. "Many Russian officials are very quick to jump on the fact that Arctic sea routes are potentially much more useful for avoiding the kind of bottlenecks that one would see in either Panama or Suez Canal," said Marc Lanteigne, associate professor of political science at the Arctic University of Norway. China claims using the Northern Sea Route would shave almost 20 days off the shipping time now spent traveling through the Suez Canal. But Arctic transit is no small feat and is still highly unpredictable. Captain Kenneth Boda took the U.S. Coast Guard cutter HEALY through the Arctic over Alaska and Canada this past summer. "It can be extremely brutally cold in the Arctic and then you can have a beautiful sunny day," he told CNBC from his captain's quarters on the ship. The HEALY is one of two specialty ships known as icebreakers that the U.S. has to traverse the ice-clogged waters. However, scientists are predicting that by 2035 Arctic sea lanes might be ice-free in the summertime. While that could be good news for shippers, it is a real threat to the Native Arctic communities. Dalee Sambo Dorough, the international chair of the Inuit Circumpolar Council, told CNBC, "The idea that it can be traveled across in a smooth and relatively safe fashion, because there's no ice, is very scary." Two of the largest shippers in the world, MSC and Maersk, told CNBC they've decided not to ship in the Arctic. MSC cited both environmental degradation and unpredictability issues, among other considerations. Others, though, argue global environmental conditions could improve, with reduced carbon emissions from shorter transits. "It's really a question of saving shipping cost-saving time versus that lack of predictability," Gabriella Gricius from the North American and Arctic Defense and Security Network told CNBC.
Don’t just blame climate change for weather disasters - – As a pioneer in so-called attribution science -- establishing a link between extreme weather and climate change -- Friederike Otto is adamant that the rising toll of heatwaves and hurricanes cannot be explained by global warming alone. o, a physicist at the Grantham Institute for Climate Change at Imperial College London, ahead of the release of a major UN climate report on climate change impacts and how humanity can adapt to them. Q. Is 'natural disaster' a contradiction in terms? To talk about natural disasters the way that we usually do is not very helpful because it turns the attention away from the agency that we have as humans. You have to search very hard to find climate disasters that are purely natural. Even without climate change, if humans are involved, such disasters occur for the most part when vulnerability and exposure meet extreme weather events. Global warming just makes it worse. Last year there were major floods in western Germany which led to lots of lost lives, damaged property. Yes, climate change made the rainfall more intense. But even without global warming there would have been a huge, heavy rainfall event. And it would have landed in a densely populated geography where the rivers flood very easily and the water has nowhere to go.
Judge blocks key Biden climate metric - A federal judge today barred the Biden administration from using a contested measure of the societal risks of climate change. Judge James Cain of the U.S. District Court for the Western District of Louisiana issued a preliminary injunction preventing federal agencies from using the social cost of carbon after finding that the metric’s application had increased regulatory costs for red states. “The Court agrees that the public interest and balance of equities weigh heavily in favor of granting a preliminary injunction,” Cain wrote in his order. The social cost of carbon puts a dollar value on a metric ton of greenhouse gas emissions and is used in rulemakings to determine the potential benefits of controlling releases of carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide. Red states led by Louisiana Attorney General Jeff Landry (R) had sought to block the Biden administration from using an interim social cost of carbon value established by an interagency working group. The judge, a Trump pick, found that the social cost of carbon posed a problem under a cooperative federalism regulatory model because it required states to employ the metric or else risk “serious consequences.” The use of the social cost of greenhouse gases in reviews under the National Environmental Policy Act “directly causes harm to the Plaintiff States’ statutorily vested rights to proceeds from [Mineral Leasing Act] oil and gas leases,” Cain said. “In other words, the SC-GHG Estimates artificially increase the cost estimates of lease sales, which in effect, reduces the number of parcels being leased, resulting in the States receiving less in bonus bids, ground rents, and production royalties,” Cain continued. The judge also warned that the metric posed an “imminent and certainly impending” risk to states in cooperative federalism programs. The court order comes as the Biden administration is expected to release final values for the social cost of greenhouse gases as soon as this month (Climatewire, Feb. 10). An interim value was released last year. Cain noted that the current interim value was still subject to review by the court, despite the government’s plans to reissue final values.
Trump-appointed judge blocks Biden administration climate metric - A Trump-appointed federal judge has blocked the Biden administration’s attempt to put greater emphasis on potential damage from greenhouse gas emissions when creating rules for polluting industries. The move represents a blow to Joe Biden’s efforts to bring America more back in line with global efforts to fight the climate crisis after the Trump era, when the US largely turned its back on measures that might have helped limit emissions. A mail carrier walks toward one of a line of boxy white US postal service trucks. US postal service under fire for plan to spend $11.3bn on gas-powered fleet Read more It also shows the impact of Donald Trump’s judicial appointees, which were overwhelmingly conservative and will have impact far beyond Trump’s single term in office. US district judge James Cain of the western district of Louisiana sided with Republican attorneys general from energy producing states who said the administration’s action to raise the cost estimate of carbon emissions threatened to drive up energy costs while decreasing state revenues from energy production. The judge issued an injunction that bars the Biden administration from using the higher cost estimate, which puts a dollar value on damages caused by every additional ton of greenhouse gases emitted into the atmosphere. Biden on his first day in office restored the climate cost estimate to about $51 a ton of carbon dioxide emissions after the Trump administration had reduced the figure to about $7 or less a ton. Trump’s estimate included only damages felt in the US versus the global damages captured in higher estimates that were previously used under the Obama administration. The estimate would be used to shape future rules for oil and gas drilling, automobiles and other industries. Using a higher cost estimate would help justify reductions in planet-warming emissions, by making the benefits more likely to outweigh the expenses of complying with new rules. Known as the social cost of carbon, the damage figure uses economic models to capture impacts from rising sea levels, recurring droughts and other consequences of climate change. The carbon cost estimate had not yet been used very much under Biden, but is being considered in a pending environmental review of oil and gas lease sales in western states. Economist Michael Greenstone, who helped establish the social cost of carbon while working in the Obama administration, said if the ruling stands, it would signal the US is again unwilling to confront the climate crisis. “The social cost of carbon guides the stringency of climate policy,” said the University of Chicago professor. “Setting it to near-zero Trump administration levels effectively removes all the teeth from climate regulations.” Republican attorneys general led by Louisiana’s Jeff Landry said the Biden administration’s revival of the higher estimate was illegal and exceeded its authority by basing the figure on global considerations. The other states whose officials sued are Alabama, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, Mississippi, South Dakota, Texas, West Virginia and Wyoming. Landry’s office issued a statement calling Cain’s ruling “a major win for nearly every aspect of Louisiana’s economy and culture”. Friday’s ruling by Cain follows a ruling by another Louisiana judge last summer that struck down a separate Biden attempt to address greenhouse gas emissions by suspending new oil and gas leases on federal lands and water. The judge in that case, US district judge Terry Doughty, is also a Trump appointee.
‘Mutually Beneficial’: AP Expands Climate Reporting Funded By Left-Wing Activist Groups - The Associated Press announced Tuesday that it had secured funding from several progressive interest groups to hire two dozen climate change reporters. The outlet referred to the groups’ funding as “philanthropic grants” and promised that the groups wouldn’t have any editorial control over the climate change content published, according to an announcement. But the five organizations — the William and Flora Hewlett Foundation, the Howard Hughes Medical Institute, the Rockefeller Foundation, Quadrivium, and the Walton Family Foundation — are well known for pushing a variety of left-wing causes and funding Democratic political campaigns. “This is a mutually beneficial arrangement,” said Brian Carovillano, the vice president of the AP’s news partnerships and grants. The AP’s expansion of its climate change reporting will lead to about 20 new hires worldwide while other journalists will be reassigned, the outlet said. The reporters will be based in Africa, Brazil, India, and the U.S., and they will reportedly write about climate change’s impact on various sectors, including the economy, agriculture, and culture. “This far-reaching initiative will transform how we cover the climate story,” AP executive editor Julie Pace said. The five groups agreed to give the AP an $8 million grant lasting three years. “Funders have no influence over AP’s reporting on this topic or any other,” AP spokesperson Lauren Easton told the Daily Caller News Foundation in a statement. “AP has long provided accurate, factual coverage of climate and the environment. This initiative is an expansion of that fact-based journalism. AP retains all editorial control.”
New study casts doubt on ethanol's climate benefits - A new study is casting doubt on the climate benefits of using ethanol as a fuel, finding that it may actually contribute more to global warming than gasoline. Researchers found that emissions from changes in land use to account for the growing demand for corn make corn-based ethanol no cleaner than gasoline. In fact, they determined that these changes likely make ethanol’s emissions at least 24 percent higher than those for gasoline, according to their study, which was published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. A 2005 law established what’s known as the “Renewable Fuel Standard” requiring a certain quantity of biofuels, a category that includes ethanol, to be blended into gasoline. Under that law, the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) annually sets standards for the amount of biofuels that need to be blended in. Study author Tyler Lark said his findings suggest that the agency should not increase blending requirements, saying it would "likely result in greater greenhouse gas emissions.”
Corn-Based Ethanol May Be Worse For the Climate Than Gasoline, a New Study Finds - Ethanol made from corn grown across millions of acres of American farmland has become the country’s premier renewable fuel, touted as a low-carbon alternative to traditional gasoline and a key component of the country’s efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. But a new study, published this week, finds that corn-based ethanol may actually be worse for the climate than fossil-based gasoline, and has other environmental downsides.“We thought and hoped it would be a climate solution and reduce and replace our reliance on gasoline,” said Tyler Lark, a researcher with the Nelson Institute for Environmental Studies at the University of Wisconsin, Madison, and lead author of the study. “It turns out to be no better for the climate than the gasoline it aims to replace and comes with all kinds of other impacts.”The study, published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, looks specifically at the effect of the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS), which was first passed by Congress in 2005 and updated in 2007 (RFS2). The standard requires that blenders add billions of gallons of renewable fuel to the country’s transportation fuel supply every year, creating the world’s biggest biofuels program.At the time, lawmakers and proponents hailed the standard as a major victory for the climate and part of an overall effort to reduce dependence on foreign oil.But in the 15 years since, its promises have yet to be fulfilled, critics say, and a mounting pile of studies shows corn ethanol has not dampened demand for fossil fuels, as expected, but has instead forced the conversion of grasslands and forests into croplands, both domestically and internationally, releasing carbon in the process.In the new study, Lark and his colleagues found that after the RFS took effect, farmers expanded corn production on nearly 7 million acres each year, causing the conversion of lands to cropland “such that the carbon intensity of corn ethanol produced under the RFS is no less than gasoline and likely at least 24% higher.” The policy, the study said, also resulted in increased fertilizer use, water pollution and habitat loss.In a previous study, from 2019, Lark and his colleagues found that cropland expansion in the United States, mostly for corn and soybeans, has led to increased greenhouse gas emissions, but did not connect that expansion to the RFS.After the current standard took effect in 2007, the Environmental Protection Agency, which is in charge of running the program, determined that ethanol from corn met the requirement that any renewable fuel under the program had to demonstrate a 20 percent reduction in greenhouse gasses compared to gasoline.But the following year, researchers published a study in the journal Science projecting that corn ethanol would double greenhouse gas emissions over 30 years because demand for corn would push farmers to plow up more carbon-rich forest and grassland. That study triggered an ongoing debate about ethanol’s carbon benefits.
Manure leaks into creek from new ‘green’ facility - A new facility in northwest Iowa that was built to create environmentally friendly fuel from cow manure polluted a creek this week when it leaked an estimated 376,000 gallons of manure water, according to the Iowa Department of Natural Resources. The manure digester near Rock Valley is among three in Lyon and Sioux counties being built by Gevo, a Colorado company that plans to capture methane from dairy cattle manure and process it into renewable natural gas to fuel low-emissions vehicles in California, according to the company’s website. It began construction last year and plans to have the system operational early this year. But when the company recently filled the Rock Valley digester with manure, it began to leak into the ground. The leak was discovered early this week when someone noticed contaminated water leaving an underground tile line, said Jacob Simonsen, an environmental specialist for the DNR. “They don’t know what’s caused the leak,” he said. “It’s kind of puzzling for them.” The digester is a large, mostly subterranean container that captures biogas produced by microorganisms that feed on the manure. That gas — estimated to be about 58% methane, 42% carbon dioxide and less than 1% hydrogen sulfide — is compressed and sent through a few miles of pipe to another facility that refines it and sends it to an existing, interstate natural gas pipeline, according to documents Gevo filed with the Iowa Utilities Board in 2020. The Rock Valley digester is the smallest of the three but can hold 1.5 million gallons of manure, said Heather Manuel, a spokesperson for Gevo. She said workers are still attempting to find the source of the leak. “We will be inspecting all the other digesters as we move forward — just extra precautions,” Manuel said. “This will not delay any timelines at this point.” Simonsen said it was unclear how long the digester was leaking. The watery manure seeped into the ground and into tiling that is meant to drain stormwater from the area. The contaminated water flowed to a crop field and into Lizard Creek, which feeds the Rock River. It’s unclear how much of the water reached the creek.
Louisiana Investigates Massive Methane Cloud Seen From Space -- Louisiana is investigating the source of a massive methane plume observed by a satellite over the U.S. last month. The state began its investigation after Bloomberg News contacted the U.S. Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety Administration about a cloud of invisible gas detected Jan. 21 by Kayrros SAS. The geoanalytics firm estimates an emissions rate of 105 tons of methane an hour was needed to generate the plume, which stretched more than 90 kilometers (56 miles) across multiple parishes and was the most severe concentration of the powerful greenhouse gas spotted by the Sentinel-5P satellite in the U.S. since October. If the release lasted an hour at that rate it would have the same short-term impact as the annual emissions from more than 1,900 U.S. cars.
First Major Baton Rouge - New Orleans CCS Project Is Born - Talos Energy Inc. announced Tuesday that it had reached an agreement with a “large” Louisiana landowner to lease approximately 26,000 acres along the Mississippi River industrial corridor for future carbon capture and sequestration (CCS) projects. In a separate announcement on the same day, Talos revealed that it and EnLink Midstream had entered into a memorandum of understanding to provide integrated CO2 transportation solutions in the region. The joint service offering will utilize significant portions of EnLink’s existing regional pipeline infrastructure of approximately 4,000 miles in Louisiana, Talos revealed. The company noted that these announcements mark the first major CCS project in the Baton Rouge/New Orleans area and the first with an integrated midstream solution dedicated to permanent sequestration activities. Talos outlined that it will be the project manager and operator of injection, storage and monitoring and revealed it will be joined by its partner, Storegga Limited. Talos’ lease deal is said to span the Iberville, St. James, Assumption and Lafourche Parishes, which the company notes is one of the largest industrial regions in the United States with approximately 80 million metrics tons of CO2 emitted regionally per year. The Baton Rouge/New Orleans CCS development, dubbed River Bend CCS, is described by Talos as a hub-class sequestration project comprised of three distinct sites with a cumulative storage capacity of over 500 million metric tons.M
Study shows London produces up to a third more methane than estimates suggest - Measurements of London's atmosphere show the city is releasing more of the potent greenhouse gas methane, primarily from natural gas leaks. The measurements, performed by researchers at Imperial College London, show that most methane released in London is the result of natural gas infrastructure leaks, rather than landfill sites as previously thought. Methane is a more potent greenhouse gas than carbon dioxide and produces a stronger warming effect, but it stays in the atmosphere for less time. Methane emissions worldwide are a major concern and reducing them would help tackle climate change. The results of the new study, published in Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, show London's natural gas infrastructure is leaking more methane than estimated, and the cumulation of lots of small leaks is adding up to considerable extra methane emissions from the city. First author of the study and Science and Solutions for a Changing Planet Doctoral Training Partnership student Eric Saboya, from the Department of Physics at Imperial, said their "study shows that London is emitting more methane than we thought, but because we've been able to pinpoint the source of much of this extra methane, we have a clear direction to reduce emissions." "Previous estimates suggested that landfill sites in London were the biggest emitters of methane, but our study shows that natural gas leaks are a bigger problem. Mitigation strategies can now be directed where they are most needed, such as upgrading leaky old metal pipes with newer plastic versions." Major sources of methane include agriculture, landfill and waste sites, natural gas infrastructure and natural sources such as wetlands. Estimates of methane emissions are typically based on a 'bottom-up' approach, where emissions were calculated based on statistics. For example, cows produce some methane, so knowing on average how much methane each cow produces and multiplying this by the number of cows in the UK gives an estimate of the emissions from cows for the country as a whole. The new study instead used a 'top-down' approach of sampling the actual atmosphere in London, from equipment installed on Imperial's South Kensington campus, to check if the measurements agreed with the 'bottom-up' methane emissions. Using continuous measurements from March 2018 to October 2020 and models of atmospheric transport, the team compared bottom-up estimates with the measured data. As well as the concentration of methane in the local atmosphere, they were able to tell the source of the methane thanks to small but measurable differences between the properties of methane from different sources. These figures were compared to two emissions 'inventories'—bottom-up estimates. While one inventory (EDGAR) correlated relatively well with the measurements in total methane concentration, the other (UK National Atmospheric Emissions Inventory, UK NAEI) appeared to underestimate methane emissions by 30-35 percent. Both inventories underestimated the fraction of emissions from natural gas. For example, the NAEI inventory suggested natural gas accounted for around 25 percent of the methane measured in South Kensington, whereas the real measurements show the reality is closer to 85 percent.
Biden Administration Promises to Buy ‘Clean’ Industrial Materials - — The Biden administration on Tuesday will set out a strategy for buying “clean,” lower-emissions steel, cement, aluminum and other industrial materials for federal agencies and projects, part of its effort to reduce carbon emissions from industrial manufacturing. The industrial sector is responsible for about one-third of the greenhouse gases produced by the United States — pollution that is helping to heat the planet to dangerous levels. White House officials said they would use federal purchasing power to encourage the industrial sector to develop low-carbon alternatives. A new Buy Clean Task Force will be created to ensure federal agencies buy construction materials that are manufactured in a way that produces fewer emissions. The Energy Department will spend $9.5 billion to encourage the commercial-scale development of clean hydrogen, a zero-carbon alternative to natural gas that is currently expensive and complicated to produce. The White House on Tuesday will also issue new guidance on deploying technology that can capture pollution from sources like smokestacks or from the air and then permanently store it. “Focusing on industry is a really big deal,” David M. Hart, a public policy professor at George Mason University in Virginia, said. He said the federal government for years had “neglected” to address climate pollution from the industrial sector, as there was no single agency responsible for prodding manufacturers of steel, aluminum, cement and concrete to cut their emissions. “It’s an important step forward,” Mr. Hart said of the new policies. President Biden has made tackling climate change a top priority; he has pledged to cut the country’s emissions nearly in half from 2005 levels by the end of this decade. But his most important tool — billions of dollars in tax incentives to stimulate wind and solar energy and to speed the adoption of electric cars — is stalled in Congress. Later this year, the Supreme Court might restrict the government’s ability to regulate emissions in the power sector. And on Friday, a federal judge blocked the administration from using a tool to calculate the impact of climate change in creating federal rules. Michael Greenstone, an economist at the University of Chicago, called the new policy moves targeting industrial emissions “bite-sized” — but said they were necessary in the absence of action from Congress. “The country is now in a position where it must pursue climate change on a very thin reed,” Mr. Greenstone said. But the Biden administration has run into problems trying to tackle climate change, even when it has the authority to do so. For example, the president has ordered federal agencies to phase out the purchase of gasoline-powered vehicles by 2035, but the United States Postal Service, an independent agency run by a board of governors, is defying that order by moving forward with the purchase of about 165,000 gas-powered trucks. A senior administration official said on Monday that discussions about the purchase were continuing between the White House and the U.S. Postal Service. The federal government is the largest consumer in the world, spending more than $650 billion on products and services annually. According to a White House fact sheet, the Buy Clean Task Force will prioritize products and pollutants, help manufacturers better report emissions data and set up pilot projects to increase federal procurement of clean construction materials.
DOE plans to turn fossil fuel waste into rare materials for tech components - The vast majority of critical minerals and rare earth elements that help power electric vehicles and wind turbines come from mining operations overseas. But a new initiative spearheaded by the US Department of Energy is looking for ways to extract them from fossil fuel waste. The Energy Department plans to build the nation's first large facility to extract critical minerals like nickel and cobalt from waste like coal ash. Those metals could then be used in components for renewable-energy batteries, cell phones and electric vehicles, among other technologies. On Monday, the department is releasing a request for information from industry, developers and research institutions on how to build and operate the new facility, shared first with CNN. "Since we get fossil fuels from the earth, there's a lot of other components other than just the carbons," Jennifer Wilcox, the principal deputy assistant secretary for the Department of Energy's Office of Fossil Energy and Carbon Management, told CNN. "There's critical minerals like cobalt and nickel, and there's also rare earth elements." As demand for critical minerals surges, the US is at a supply-chain disadvantage for them. The US currently imports more than 80% of its rare earth elements from offshore suppliers. Much of its critical mineral supply needed to power batteries is also shipped from overseas. China in particular has cornered the global market on processing critical minerals and rare earth elements, but countries including Australia and Malaysia are also involved. Enter your email to subscribe to the CNN Five Things Newsletter.close dialog Department of Energy officials like Wilcox see coal waste as a new opportunity to make the US less reliant on foreign supply. Even so, it will take years to realize this vision. The new facility -- which the department plans to construct by 2026 and have operational by 2028 -- will both refine materials and show private industry how to scale up extraction of rare earth elements and critical minerals from used fossil fuels. The department aims to have the facility be able to process about 1,000 metric tons of mixed rare earth oxides, increasing that to 10,000 metric tons per year by 2035 and 20,000 metric tons per year by 2040. And although foreign countries lead the US in processing critical minerals from mining, this concept of processing fossil fuel waste for minerals is a relatively new and untested one. "I think we are really in the lead on these concepts," Wilcox said.
California Returns as Climate Leader, With Help From the White House— The Biden administration is preparing strict new limits on pollution from buses, delivery vans, tractor-trailers and other heavy trucks, the first time tailpipe standards have been tightened for the biggest polluters on the road since 2001. The new federal regulations are drawn from truck pollution rules recently enacted by California and come as the Biden administration is moving to restore that state’s legal authority to set auto emissions limits that are tighter than federal standards, according to two people familiar with the matter, who were not authorized to speak on the record. The developments represent a revival of California’s influence on the nation’s climate and clean air policies, following four years in which President Donald J. Trump waged legal, political, and, at times, seemingly personal battles with the state. The Trump administration had stripped away California’s authority to institute its own vehicle pollution standards, power that the state had enjoyed for more than 40 years. Mr. Trump claimed that California’s tougher rules made cars more expensive and less safe. But now, California is reasserting itself as a leader in policies designed to fight pollution and global warming. Federal regulators are looking to California for inspiration as they draft new national rules designed to meet President Biden’s pledge that half of all new cars sold in the United States by 2030 will be electric vehicles. Gov. Gavin Newsom, a Democrat, has signed an executive order to phase out the sale of new gasoline-powered cars in California by 2035 and is proposing to spend $37 billion next year to cut greenhouse gas emissions from transportation, buildings and the energy sector. “We are deeply gratified after years of uncertainty, years of sparring with the previous administration,” said Governor Newsom, speaking of the restoration of his state’s environmental rules. “We don’t imitate, we’re a model to the world,” Governor Newsom said. “In climate, we want to continue to assert that leadership and continue to raise the bar. Clearly we want to find ways to collaborate with the Biden administration, but I don’t ever want to cede California’s leadership on this goal.” Governor Newsom said he hoped that as California would set ever more ambitious climate and clean air rules, the federal government would continue to follow. “We want to harmonize again, upward, not downward,” he said. In contrast to bitter clashes on climate change with Mr. Trump, sometimes via attacks on Twitter, Governor Newsom said he has had productive personal conversations with Mr. Biden on climate policy.
White House Takes Aim at Environmental Racism, but Won’t Mention Race - — As a candidate and then as president, Joseph R. Biden promised to address the unequal burden that people of color carry from exposure to environmental hazards. But the White House’s new environmental strategy to tackle this problem will be colorblind: Race will not be a factor in deciding where to focus efforts. Worried that using race to identify and help disadvantaged communities could trigger legal challenges that would stymie their efforts, administration officials said they were designing a system to help communities of color even without defining them as such. “We are trying to set up a framework and a tool that will survive, and one that still connects to what the on-the-ground impacts are that people are experiencing,” said Brenda Mallory, chairwoman of the White House Council of Environmental Quality, which is designing the system. “I feel that we can do that based on race-neutral criteria.” That approach comes during a decades-long fight over what role race should play in public policy, and what is permitted under the Constitution. The Supreme Court, with its new conservative supermajority, is poised to hear a case this term that could turn back 40 years of precedent that said race could be used as one factor in determining college admissions. Lower courts, meanwhile, have rejected the Biden administration’s efforts to forgive loans for minority farmers as part of a $4 billion program intended to address a long history of racial injustice in farming. A separate, pending legal challenge accuses the Biden administration of pushing white men “to the back of the line,” claiming that it is giving preference for Covid relief funds to restaurant owners who are women and minorities. Using race as a factor in decision-making could also create political problems for Democrats during an election year when some Republicans appear to be trying to tap into white grievance. For example, President Biden’s recent announcement that he would nominate the first Black woman to the Supreme Court prompted Senator Ted Cruz of Texas to remark, “He’s saying, ‘If you’re a white guy, tough luck.’” To step away from race, the Biden administration intends to identify towns and neighborhoods that need environmental help based on dozens of data points like household income, unemployment rates, air pollution levels and proximity to Superfund sites, incinerators and other hazards. Just not racial or ethnic demographics.
Will EPA get an environmental justice boss? - The Biden administration could soon deliver on its promise to create a Senate-confirmed position to coordinate environmental justice initiatives across EPA.Last year, President Biden’s first budget blueprint proposed establishing an EPA assistant administrator for environmental justice, an effort to elevate decisionmaking on the issue to the highest levels of the agency.Observers see an appropriations package for the entire federal government — the omnibus bill — as providing the money to stand up that new position at EPA. That legislation could be enacted as early as next month.“The omnibus is the best opportunity to be able to get the funding that is necessary,” said Mustafa Santiago Ali, a former EPA environmental justice official who is now a vice president at the National Wildlife Federation.EPA is moving forward with the proposal, included in its fiscal 2022 congressional justification, and plans to work with Capitol Hill to implement it.“Environmental justice is a priority for Administrator [Michael] Regan and the Biden-Harris administration,” EPA spokesperson Lindsay Hamilton told E&E News.Biden’s fiscal plan has an additional $287 million and at least another 171 full-time employees for environmental justice programs at EPA, according to budget documents.
Yale, Princeton, Stanford, MIT and Vanderbilt students take legal action to try to force fossil fuel divestment - Students fighting climate change have been trying to pressure universities to divest from the fossil fuel industry for years: They have shouted slogans, marched, rallied, waved signs. They have signed petitions and passed resolutions and referendums. They have disrupted Zooms and football games and board meetings and administration buildings. They have covered themselves in oil. Now, frustrated by the response from some school officials, a coalition of student groups working with the nonprofit Climate Defense Project has escalated the fight. Instead of just trying to convince university leaders that their investments are immoral for contributing to global warning, the groups argue that the investments are also illegal. Student-led campaigns at Yale, Princeton, Stanford and Vanderbilt universities and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology filed complaints Wednesday with their respective state attorneys general in a bid to compel schools to divest. The campaigns have requested an investigation into whether the schools have violated a state law related to investments by nonprofit institutions. The complaints argue that the Uniform Prudent Management of Institutional Funds Act requires universities to ensure their resources are put to socially beneficial ends, and that putting money into fossil fuel companies is in direct conflict with their missions. They also argue that the investments may no longer make financial sense, with the complaints saying “oil and gas stocks have greatly underperformed other investments over the last ten years.” The complaints estimate the total amount — often hundreds of millions of dollars — they believe to be invested in fossil fuels such as coal, oil and natural gas at each institution. Several students said it’s hard to watch the deliberation and caution of university leaders in the face of the urgency of the climate crisis for their generation. “We’re doing something that will be much harder to ignore here,” said Peter Scott, a junior at MIT who is a co-leader of MIT Divest. “That’s what we’re excited about.”
Environmental footprint calculators have one big flaw we need to talk about - Environmental footprints measure the environmental damage caused by a product throughout its life. For food, this includes the impacts of growing crops and livestock, and manufacturing the inputs required such as fertilisers. It can also include packaging and transport.But unfortunately, environmental footprints often don't tell the full story. When consumers switch to a food seen as more environmentally friendly, its production expands at the expense of other products. This has consequences that environmental footprints don't take into account. Environmental footprint calculators may promise to help consumers lead a greener life. But they may in fact encourage choices that don't benefit—and may even harm—the environment.
Hydrogen hub bill is tabled | Legislature | New Mexico Legislative Session - One of the most contentious bills in this year’s legislative session is dead. House Speaker Brian Egolf, D-Santa Fe, on Monday announced he was moving House Bill 228 — aimed to help New Mexico become a hub of clean hydrogen energy — to the “Speaker’s Table,” where it will remain on hold until the session ends. Camile Ward, spokeswoman for House Democrats, wrote in an email “the bill will not be considered further this session.” The bill’s chances of making it through the session at this point were slim, as the session concludes at noon Thursday. Even if the House had approved the legislation and sent it to the Senate, it had to pass through at least one committee hearing before getting a vote in the full chamber. Egolf permanently tabled a previous incarnation of the legislation, House Bill 227, last week. He said the bill would not be considered. The bill’s sponsor, Rep. Patty Lundstrom, D-Gallup, revamped that legislation into HB 228 and eliminated a provision giving tax credits to interested industry parties. Instead those wanting to develop the hydrogen industry in the state would apply for public/private partnership money to be vetted and approved by a hydrogen hub development board and approved by the New Mexico Finance Authority. Lundstrom said she hoped to get the initiative going at the abandoned Escalante Power Plant in Prewitt, creating 500 temporary construction jobs and between 60 and 100 permanent jobs. Environmental activists opposed the initiative, saying it would lead to the emission of more fossil fuels at a time when the state is trying to reduce its carbon footprint.
World funds own destruction with $1.8 tn subsidies: study - The world must by 2030 slash $1.8 trillion in annual subsidies that destroy the environment, in order to "finance a net-zero global economy", according to a study Thursday from business groups including one founded by tycoon Richard Branson. The report, estimating the value of damaging state subsidies, was commissioned by Branson's nonprofit initiative The B Team and global coalition Business for Nature, which comprises academic, corporate and environmental organisations. The vast subsidies, totalling two percent of global gross domestic product, fund the "global destruction of nature" and governments worldwide must act, the two organisations said in a statement. The study "finds the fossil fuel, agriculture and water industries receive more than 80 percent of all environmentally harmful subsidies per year", the organisations concluded. And they called upon governments to "redirect, repurpose or eliminate" those subsidies by 2030 to help "finance a net-zero global economy". At least 20 nations were subsidising the price of gasoline or petrol, sparking higher emissions of carbon and other dangerous air pollutants, the research suggested. Beef and soy production were also stimulated by "significant" subsidy flows that are a cause of tropical rainforest loss in Brazil, the report found. European policies on biofuel blending biofuels with motor fuel meanwhile ramped up pressure for new cropland, often at the expense of tropical biodiversity hotspots, the study added. And illegal logging, often via corruption and favouritism over lumbering concessions, contributed to climate change, deforestation and ecosystem destruction. "Nature is declining at an alarming rate, and we have never lived on a planet with so little biodiversity," said Christiana Figueres, head of The B Team's climate group. "At least $1.8 trillion is funding the destruction of nature and changing our climate, while creating huge risks for the very businesses who are receiving the subsidies." Governments across the world pay an estimated $640 billion in support to the fossil fuel industry, contributing to climate change, air and water pollution and land subsidence, the study found. Agriculture receives some $520 billion in subsidies that contribute towards soil erosion, water pollution, deforestation, greenhouse gas emissions and loss of biodiversity and natural habitats, it claimed. And another $350 billion in subsidies for the water industry is said to help fund water pollution and risk ocean and waterway ecosystems.
Bitcoin miners revived a dying coal plant – then CO2 emissions soared - Environmentalists in Montana called it the “death watch”. Following years of financial losses one of the handful of remaining coal-fired power plants in the state appeared doomed, its likely fate offering a small but noteworthy victory in the effort to avoid disastrous climate change. But then a bitcoin mining company stepped in to resurrect it.The Hardin generating station, a 115-megawatt coal plant located a dozen miles from the historic site of the famous battle of Little Big Horn in southern Montana, was slated for closure in 2018 due to a lack of customers only to somehow limp on, operating on just 46 days in 2020. “We were just waiting for this thing to die,” said Anne Hedges, co-director of the Montana Environmental Information Center. “They were struggling and looking to close. It was on the brink. And then this cryptocurrency company came along.”In a deal struck in late 2020, Marathon, a bitcoin “mining” company, became the sole recipient of the power station’s electricity. It established an elongateddata center on 20 acres of land beside the facility that is packed with more than 30,000 Antminer S19 units, a specialized computer that mines for bitcoin. Such thirst for power is common in crypto – globally bitcoin mining consumes more electricity than Norway, a country of 5.3 million people.As the bitcoin miners moved in last year, Hardin roared back to life. In the first nine months of 2021 alone, the plant’s boilers fired up on 236 separate days. Planet-heating emissions from the burning of Hardin’s coal soared too, with 187,000 tons of carbon dioxide emitted in the second quarter of last year, more than 5000% more than was expelled in the same period in 2020.In the third quarter, a further 206,000 tons of CO2 was emitted, a 905% increase on 2020, Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) data shows. Hardin was operating at “near full capacity”, Marathon said in a December update, with the data center producing around 34 bitcoin on 1 December.“I was horrified to see it all happen, it was a terrible turn of events,” said Hedges, who took to visiting the plant and photographing the new data center as it took shape, fans perched on its roof to help cool the humming computer hardware. “This isn’t helping old ladies from freezing to death, it’s to enrich a few people while destroying our climate for all of us. If you’re concerned about climate change you should have nothing to do with cryptocurrency, it’s a disaster for the climate.” Hardin is part of a wave of America’s “zombie” fossil fuel plants that have been brought back from the dead by cryptocurrency companies looking to feed the insatiable energy demands of their mining operations. China, formerly the epicenter of the bitcoin industry, effectively banished around half of the world’s currency miners last year and the resulting search for cheap power has seen companies eye struggling US power stations.
‘Biggest oil barons’: the US private equity firms funding dirty energy projects - American private equity tycoons are profiteering from the global climate crisis by investing in fossil fuels that are driving greenhouse gas emissions, a new investigation reveals. Oil and gas pipelines, coal plants and offshore drilling sites linked to Indigenous land violations, toxic leaks and deadly air pollution are among the dirty energy projects financed by some of the country’s largest private equity firms, according to an investigation by the corporate accountability non-profits LittleSis and the Private Equity Stakeholder Project (Pesp).Private equity refers to an opaque form of financing away from public markets in which funds and investors buy and restructure companies including startups, troubled businesses and real estate.Globally, the industry manages more than $7tn for wealthy individuals and institutional investors such as mutuals, hedge funds, endowments and pensions, investing in every sector from retail chains and healthcare to prisons and weapons.Some of that money finances fossil-fuel projects that release greenhouse gases that cause global heating. Higher atmospheric and ocean temperatures are directly linked to the rise in catastrophic weather events like drought, extreme temperatures and hurricanes.Yet unlike banks and other publicly listed companies, private equity firms are exempt from most financial disclosure rules, making it extremely difficult to track their assets.It means people like firefighters and teachers whose pension funds are invested in private equity funds have little way of knowing if their retirement nest egg is financing coal plants, oil wells or solar farms. The Private Equity’s Dirty Dozen report, shared exclusively with the Guardian, provides a snapshot of the industry’s involvement in some of the country’s most controversial fossil fuel investments, as well as the deep political and cultural ties of its wealthy executives.
Banks haven't quit coal. Commercial lenders have channeled $1.5 trillion to the industry since 2019 - Banks and investors have channeled massive sums of money to support the coal industry in recent years, according to new research, propping up the world's dirtiest fossil fuel at a time when humanity is facing a climate emergency. Analysis published Tuesday by campaign groups Urgewald and Reclaim Finance, alongside more than two dozen other NGOs, found that commercial banks channeled $1.5 trillion to the coal industry between January 2019 and November last year. The research shows how a tiny number of financial institutions from a handful of countries play an outsized role in keeping the coal industry afloat. Indeed, financial institutions from just six countries — the U.S., China, Japan, India, Canada and the U.K. — were seen to be responsible for more than 80% of coal financing and investment. "These financial institutions must come under fire from all quarters: civil society organizations, financial regulators, customers and progressive investors," Katrin Ganswindt, head of financial research at Urgewald, said in the report. "Unless we end financing of coal, it will end us." Coal is the most carbon-intensive fossil fuel in terms of emissions and therefore the most critical target for replacement in the transition to renewable alternatives. The International Energy Agency has made clear that unless coal is rapidly retired there is little chance, if any at all, of curbing global heating to 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels — the aspirational goal of the 2015 Paris Agreement. Yet, even as policymakers and business leaders repeatedly tout their commitment to the so-called "energy transition," the world's fossil fuel dependency remains on track to get even worse. Who are the top lenders to coal clients? The findings outline all corporate lending and underwriting for companies on Urgewald's Global Coal Exit List but exclude green bonds and financing that is directed toward non-coal activities. The GCEL refers to a list of 1,032 companies that account for 90% of the world's thermal coal production and coal-fired capacity. It is the first GCEL finance research update since the COP26 climate conference was held in Glasgow, Scotland late last year. Campaigners say it is for this reason that the analysis should be seen as a benchmark to assess the integrity of promises made at COP26. Banks like to argue that they want to help their coal clients transition, but the reality is that almost none of these companies are transitioning. And they have little incentive to do so as long as bankers continue writing them blank checks," Ganswindt said. The NGOs research shows that while 376 commercial banks provided $363 billion in loans to the coal industry between January 2019 and November 2021, just 12 banks accounted for 48% of total lending to companies on the GCEL. Of these so-called "dirty dozen" lenders, 10 are members of the U.N.'s Net Zero Banking Alliance — an industry-led initiative committed to aligning their portfolios with net-zero emissions by 2050. The top three lenders providing loans to the coal industry consist of Japan's Mizuho Financial, Mitsubishi UFJ Financial and SMBC Group, respectively, followed by the U.K.'s Barclays and Wall Street's Citigroup.
Homer City Generation Station owners say they may deactivate units - Pittsburgh Business Times - One of the region's last remaining coal-fired power plants announced Monday that it was considering deactivating some of its units and would make a decision by April. Homer City Generation LP said it asked regional grid operator PJM Interconnection whether it could decide not to participate in the required 2023-24 base residual auction for at least some units and whether it could deactivate those units by May 2023. Homer City Generating Station, 50 miles from Pittsburgh, is the largest operating coal-fired power plant in Pennsylvania. The company, which has been owners of the plant since April 2017, said it would base its decision on several factors including the potential entry of Pennsylvania into the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative. It would also consider operating performance, being able to support one or two units, as well as coal prices and supply and how much it would cost to maintain and operate the plant. It has 129 employees, and the company said there would be no impact on them right now. A potential closure at Homer City would be the second big coal-fired power plant in the region to close in as many years, with the Cheswick Generating Station set to close in April.
Millions approved to train laid-off coal miners, but four years later no one has been trained — Four years ago, state officials announced millions of dollars in grants for job training in Western Pennsylvania. However, Action News Investigates learned no laid-off workers have been trained yet. The money was set aside to train unemployed coal miners for jobs in manufacturing or driving trucks. Ronald Wright of Coal Center spent decades working as a miner, but he’s been out of work for months for medical reasons. “It's like you're stuck in a hole and trying to climb out of it,” Wright said. He heard the United Mine Workers Career Center in Greene County had classes for manufacturing and commercial driver licenses but when he called them he was told no classes were available. “You can go to work tomorrow for 12, 15, 16 dollars an hour but that's not what most of these guys in the mines have been making for the last 20, 30 years,” Wright said. In January 2018, Gov. Tom Wolf visited the mineworkers' career center and announced $3 million in funds to provide training for trucking, manufacturing and cybersecurity jobs. Months later, Wolf announced another million-dollar grant for the center. And the center also received $1 million in federal funds. When asked how many displaced miners have been trained since then, center deputy director Lisa Adams said, “We haven't been able to train them because the facility just got the occupancy permit.” She added, “Individuals that are interested in training, absolutely we've told them they have to go to a different school.” Wright said other training programs have a high price tag. “And that's something that I don't have access to at this moment and it's very hard to get moving,” he said. Why the delays? Adams said it took more than a year to get formal approval for the $3 million state grant. Then they had to do environmental studies and get state licenses for the CDL and manufacturing programs. They had to borrow money for construction because the state grants could only be used for reimbursement. The pandemic didn't help. State Sen. Camera Bartolotta, R-Washington/Greene, started advocating for the grant money six years ago. “It's embarrassing and this is just emblematic of the way government runs and it shouldn't be this hard to do the right thing,” she said.
Joe Manchin-connected power plant hasn't paid rent in a decade - The power plant that buys coal from Sen. Joe Manchin’s family business has not paid rent for the last decade. The Grant Town power plant is built on the former Federal No. 1 mine in north central West Virginia. That mine is owned by a local company, Horizon Ventures Ltd. Grant Town’s owner, American Bituminous Power Partners LP, stopped paying Horizon rent in 2012 and has waged a legal battle for years over the amount it owes Horizon in back rent. At the same time it’s skipped rent payments, Grant Town has paid Manchin’s family company, Enersystems Inc., millions of dollars for waste coal. American Bituminous Power Partners — or Ambit for short — has “found various reasons to pay, among others, stakeholders and executives, instead of paying its obligations to Horizon,” Horizon attorney Mark Kepple wrote in a recent filing with the Public Service Commission. Horizon sued Ambit in 2013, seeking to force the company to pay back rent. Tens of millions of dollars may be at stake. At issue is a complex, almost 200-page lease that Ambit and Horizon signed about 30 years ago. Their disagreement turns on a dispute over the source of the waste coal the plant burns and the rate of pay that Ambit owes to Horizon, based on that coal.Ambit owes more money to Horizon the more on-site fuel it uses. If it uses off-site fuel — which is trucked in by Manchin’s family company — it pays Horizon less money. The fight between Ambit and Horizon is over how much off-site fuel is used, and therefore how much rent is owed.Last month, the case made its way to the state Supreme Court of West Virginia.The Grant Town power plant is a chief customer of Manchin’s family coal business, Enersystems. Enersystems trucks bring waste coal to Grant Town from two other nearby defunct mines and hauls away its coal ash waste.The plant has faced financial struggles over the years and repeatedly has sought increases in the amount of money it receives for the electricity it sells to a subsidiary of utility giant FirstEnergy Corp. If the plant closed, it would be a major financial hit to Manchin as well as his son, Joseph Manchin IV, who runs the company.Manchin has spent decades pushing policies that benefit the plant and the waste coal industry that helped make his family fortune (Climatewire, Feb. 2). Enersystems now provides the bulk of the waste coal that Grant Town burns for electricity. Manchin earned about $500,000 from Enersystems last year, according to Senate ethics disclosures. The plant’s owners have received multiple rate hikes after claiming they were teetering on the edge of bankruptcy. Utility consumers in West Virginia have paid more than $100 million in recent years to cover those rate hikes, public records show. After decades of receiving more money from ratepayers as well as tax breaks, Ambit now claims its finances are in “solid condition,” according to testimony from Richard Halloran, president of Grant Town Holdings Corp.“Ambit’s business is in solid condition,” he said in sworn testimony before the state Public Service Commission last year. “We pay our bills consistently within terms, more quickly than most.”Halloran’s portrayal of the plant’s financial health differs sharply from his description of the company’s finances when it sought rate increases. Halloran provided testimony as he floated a plan before the state Public Service Commission to convert Grant Town into a cryptocurrency mining power source. That plan was rejected by the state Public Service Commission (Climatewire, Jan. 5).
Grain Belt Express causing concern as company plans public meetings in the Tri-States -- The company that wants to put in a wind-power transmission line that would run from Kansas to Indiana and through Missouri and Illinois, is being met with opposition from landowners in the Tri-States.Invenergy Transmission’s Grain Belt Express project plans to bring the transmission lines through parts of Monroe and Ralls counties in Missouri, and Pike and Scott counties in Illinois.Pike-Scott Farm Bureau Executive Director Blake Roderick said he’s concerned it will disrupt the general flow of farming in the area.“They’re not going to go through towns. They’re going to go through farmland,” Roderick said. “Things that we want to try to avoid is the potential for negative impacts in agriculture, such as interference with irrigation, interference with aerial application of fertilizer chemicals and subsurface drainage.”While Roderick is concerned the transmission line could negatively impact farming, Pike County Board Chairman Jim Sheppard said it could positively impact the economy.“It will also bring in a lot of people doing the construction. So more business for restaurants, which obviously over the last two years have struggled, and the motel industry and short-term rentals,” Sheppard said. “By ICC regulations, they have to pay local governments so much per mile as they go through.”The company promises $1.2 billion in economic activity for Illinois, 2,200 construction jobs and $33 million in payments to local governments, all at no cost to Illinois residents. Plans for the project have been in talks since 2015, but Roderick said residents in Pike and Scott counties still haven’t heard if they would be able to even access the power.
Generators in Texas meet electric demand, avoid widespread outages during recent cold snap – EIA - A cold snap brought cold weather and icy conditions to Texas earlier this month, increasing heating demand for electricity across the state. Power plants and electric generators in the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT)—the grid operator for most of the state—increased output to meet elevated demand during the storm. UnlikeFebruary 2021, when extreme cold disrupted the supply of electricity in Texas and left millions without power, generators maintained fuel supplies and avoided widespread power outages.ERCOT forecasts electricity demand to help ensure it has sufficient generation resources to meet expected demand. Actual demand refers to the amount of electricity that customers actually consume. When power outages occur, customers may want to consume more electricity but are unable to, resulting in lower actual demand.During the recent cold snap, actual demand for electricity in ERCOT peaked at 68,862 megawatthours (MWh), slightly below the peak actual demand of 69,215 MWh during the February 2021 winter storm. However, this winter’s peak was still below the demand ERCOT forecast for February 2021 before widespread outages began, which resulted in lower actual demand than forecast. This winter, actual demand on the peak day (February 4) was much lower than ERCOT’s day-ahead forecast, largely because temperatures were warmer than predicted.Unlike in February 2021, this winter's storm didn’t cause major declines of natural gas production in Texas, and natural gas-fired power plants in Texas maintained their fuel supply during the cold weather. In February 2021, weather-related production issues reduced peak natural gas production by 16 billion cubic feet (Bcf), according to data from IHS Markit, compared with a 3 Bcf decline in peak dry natural gas production this winter.In addition, renewable generators, largely wind, maintained a high level of output during the coldest periods this winter, when demand for space heating was the highest. In addition, coal-fired and nuclear units did not experience outages, which occurred in February 2021. In response to the ample supply, the ERCOT prices for wholesale electricity in the real-time market were below $100 per MWh during the recent storm; prices were as high as $9,000 per MWh (the price cap for wholesale electricity in ERCOT at the time) during the February 2021 storm.
'We were shocked': Marion family facing nearly $1K utility bill | WHEC.com — — Rochester Gas & Electric customers are not the only ones seeing huge increases on their utility bills. NYSEG customers are paying more too. Sunday night, we told you RG&E customers have contacted News10NBC stunned over recent bills. We talked to an NYSEG customer who's asking why her bill has more than doubled. We visited Jennifer Young and her family at their home in Marion. Young said her normal winter bills have always been manageable, but her latest bill has them wondering how they're going to pay for it. "We were shocked," Young said. "It's a lot of money. It's almost $1,000." 'We were shocked': Marion family facing nearly $1K utility bill News10NBC Young and her family can't believe how much they're being charged on their latest NYSEG electric bill. She said her typical winter bill is around $400 and her last bill is $925.19. "With everything that's—prices going up on everything—it's just getting scary because we're a family of five," Young said. "Both parents work, and things are really tight because of this." Young's husband was on the phone for over an hour waiting to talk to customer service about their bill. Both say the family hasn't done anything differently in terms of their power usage causing their payment to spike. "We went back and looked at our prior months and, for the last 2 years, it's been the same usage for this time of the year that we've had," Young said. News10NBC contacted NYSEG to see what's behind the bill hike. Director of Communications Michael Jamison told us the high price of natural gas is affecting the market.
High energy prices send Europe's businesses, homes reeling - Protests over electricity price hikes broke out across Turkey this week, including some where police fired tear gas to disperse crowds. People are posting their electricity bills on social media to show how costs are untenable. Shopkeepers are displaying notices decrying high bills on shop windows, while others have gathered outside electric companies and set their bills on fire. Like the rest of Europe, electricity generation in Turkey requires energy sources that have surged in price, including natural gas, whose supply is low. A huge drop in the value of Turkey’s currency is driving the price spike in imported gas.As Europe’s energy demand roared back from the depths of the coronavirus pandemic, it ran up against gas reserves sapped by a cold winter last year, a lack of renewable energy generation over the summer and Russia not selling as much gas as usual to Europe. Utilities are passing the costs along to customers, and people are getting hit twice: with higher bills at home and rising prices from businesses also paying more for energy. It’s led to a cost-of-living crisis in some places, but especially in Turkey, where households and businesses were already reeling from eye-watering inflation and a currency that lost some 44% of its value last year, eating away savings and making it difficult to buy even basics like food. Authorities then raised electricity tariffs on Jan. 1, spiking prices by 50% for many people and as much as 127% for businesses and high-consumption households. Faced with mounting criticism, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan made changes this month so the price rises kick in when households use more energy, but it’s failed to provide relief. With price hikes threatening to hurt Erdogan ahead of elections next year, his administration has said it’s working on a possible readjustment or other measures to help people. It’s something that governments through Europe are doing as rising utility costs draw widespread outcry. In Britain, energy prices are set to go up by a record 54% — some 700 pounds ($940) per year — starting in April. The government says customers will get a discount on their bills to be paid back in small installments over the next few years, and most also will get money off another local tax. In total, the government said most people will get about half of the extra cost shaved off. Likewise, Italian households are bracing for a record 55% increase in electricity and 42% in gas in coming weeks, energy regulators say. To draw attention to the issue, mayors plunged the historic city halls of Rome and Florence into darkness Thursday night. The Italian mayors’ association said the government’s response so far has been insufficient to help cities confront hundreds of millions in additional energy costs, making them choose between balancing budgets or cutting services. Premier Mario Draghi this week said Italy’s government was determined to draw up broad measures soon that will provide relief to families and businesses. Polish regulators approved energy prices going up by 37% this year, pinching bakeries and other businesses to the point many had to close. The right-wing government temporarily lowered taxes on electricity, gas, engine fuels, some food staples and fertilizer. That’s expected to cut energy costs for a family of four by some 120 zlotys (26.5 euros) this year. Businesses say it’s not enough to balance their increased costs.
DOE to offer $6B to keep struggling nuclear reactors online - The Department of Energy (DOE) will spend $6 billion on a program designed to keep nuclear power plants from closing, according to a notice of intent published last week. The department's Civil Nuclear Credit Program is backed by funding from the bipartisan Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act signed into law in November. The program will allow owners and operators of commercial U.S. nuclear reactors to competitively bid on credits to help continue their operations amid economic hardship. Applicants will have to prove that their reactor faces closure for economic reasons and that closing the reactor would lead to an increase in air pollution because of power production from other sources. Applicants must also be approved by the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission for safe operation. The U.S. fleet of 93 nuclear reactors currently provides 52% of the nation's clean electricity, according to DOE figures. However, the last two reactors to enter service – Watts Bar Units 1 and 2 in Tennessee – came online in 1996 and 2016, respectively. The only one currently under construction – the Vogtle plant in Georgia – is years behind schedule and roughly $14 billion over the original budget. Since 2013, economic factors have led to the early closure of 12 commercial reactors.The high operating and maintenance costs of running a reactor can make them uneconomical in some markets, said Charles Mason, the H. A. "Dave" True, Jr. Chair in Petroleum and Natural Gas Economics at the University of Wyoming who worked on a review of the economics of nuclear power for DOE in 2016.While the reliability and 24-hour availability of power from a reactor is part of their appeal, the fact that the plants cannot easily be shut down and restarted means that they sometimes operate at a loss when there is ample supply on the market. That, he said, makes the DOE support program one of the only ways to keep some nuclear plants online as a carbon-free resource."Nuclear power provides substantial amounts of carbon-free electricity and we have never rewarded it," Mason said. "If you want to have a sure thing and a backstop as we transition to renewable energy, you'll need nuclear, which is more readily available than anything else in the renewable portfolio."Although some environmentalists have raised safety and cost concerns with nuclear power, the Biden administration has committed to the existing nuclear fleet as part of the clean energy transition. Sen. Joe Machin, D-W.Va., chairman of the Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee and a backer of the nuclear program, said in a statement that "ensuring the continued operation of our domestic nuclear fleet is essential to achieving our emission reduction goals while also maintaining reliability."
Why the U.S. government plans to spend billions to keep money-losing nuclear plants open The government is going to spend billions of dollars to keep nuclear power plants open in the United States because they're losing too much money to stay open otherwise. Nuclear power plants generate clean, greenhouse-gas free energy, which could help the Biden administration meet its own ambitious climate goal of reducing net greenhouse gas pollution by 50% from 2005 levels by 2030.The Bipartisan Infrastructure Law President Joe Biden signed in Novemberincludes a $6 billion program intended to preserve the existing U.S. fleet of nuclear power reactors. On Feb. 10, the Department of Energy's Office Nuclear Energy took first steps to begin the process of distributing that money.That money is needed because multiple nuclear plants are "at risk for early closure" and several others "have already closed prematurely due to economic circumstances," according to government documents.Why? "This really traces back to deregulation in the industry," said George Bilicic, vice chairman and global head of power energy and infrastructure at the financial advisory and asset management firm Lazard.In the United States, 17 states with nuclear power plants are regulated, and 10 states with nuclear power plants are deregulated, according to the Nuclear Energy Institute.In deregulated markets, nuclear power generators have to sell their energy on an open market, where distribution companies will choose the most inexpensive energy option that can do the same job. Today, that's often natural gas."One of the key factors that drives the economics of nuclear is just how cheap natural gas is," Ben King, a senior analyst with the energand climate division at Rhodium Group, a market research firm, told CNBC in a phone call."When natural gas is cheap, it is extremely difficult for nuclear to make the revenue that it needs to remain operational and economic," King said.Given current natural gas prices and projections, King and his colleagues have projected that as much as a third of current nuclear energy fleet capacity in the U.S. may retire. The nuclear fleet will decline from about 96 gigawatts at about 60 nuclear facilities in the U.S down to as low as 60 gigawatts by 2030, the firm predicts.While the $6 billion in the Infrastructure law is helpful to stem a potential flood of closures, it is still not enough, King said. In their modeling, the Rhodium Group pairs the $6 billion with the proposed existing nuclear production tax credit that's part of the Build Back Better Act, which the Joint Committee on Taxation score estimates to be $23 billion.
FirstEnergy settles lawsuits seeking corporate reform (AP) — Akron-based First Energy announced it has settled a series of shareholder lawsuits seeking corporate reforms in the wake of a bribery and corruption scandal.FirstEnergy in a statement on Thursday said provisions of the settlement include an agreement that six longtime board members will not stand for election at the company’s May shareholder meeting. The board of directors will now be responsible for overseeing FirstEnergy’s lobbying and political activities while a committee of board members will conduct a review the current executive team.The deal awaits U.S. District Judge Algenon Marbley’s approval.FirstEnergy’s insurer will pay the company $180 million less fees owed to attorneys representing shareholders in the complaints called derivative lawsuits. FirstEnergy spokeswoman Jennifer Young told the Akron Beacon Journal the company is awarded money because the lawsuits were filed on behalf of the company against board members and former executives.“The shareholders are basically saying the company has been harmed,” Young said.The lawsuits were filed in the months following U.S. Attorney David DeVillers’ announcement in July 2020 that FirstEnergy had secretly funded a $60 million bribery scheme to win legislative approval of a $1 billion bailout of two Ohio nuclear power plants operated at the time by a FirstEnergy subsidiary.FirstEnergy signed a deferred prosecution agreement with the U.S. Department of Justice in July 2021 that detailed how its executives carried out the bribery scheme in concert with former Ohio House Speaker Larry Householder and others. FirstEnergy also agreed to pay a $230 million fine.A federal charge of conspiracy to commit honest services fraud will be dismissed against FirstEnergy in 2024 if the company abides by a long list of reforms listed in the agreement.Householder, who was indicted in July 2020 on a federal conspiracy charge along with four associates, has pleaded not guilty and awaits trial.FirstEnergy still faces shareholder lawsuits alleging the company committed securities violations. Defendants include current CEO and President Steven Strah along with former CEO Chuck Jones, who was fired by the company in October 2020 for violating company policies and its code of conduct.
FirstEnergy pushed for 'cooperative' utility regulator; DeWine heeded its pick - Ohio Capital Journal - FirstEnergy executives and two powerful politicians who the company admitted to bribing all unified behind renominating a “very cooperative” incumbent to serve on a key regulatory panel, the company stated in court filings.The filing doesn’t identify the commissioner, but only refers to an “incumbent” and then-current “PUCO official.” Commissioner Lawrence K. Friedeman was the only of five incumbents at the time who applied for the open seat. He made it onto a shortlist of finalists from which he was reappointed by Gov. Mike DeWine in early 2020 to a five-year term on the Public Utilities Commission of Ohio.The apparent connection between the Statehouse public corruption probe and Friedeman, which has not been previously reported, suggests FirstEnergy played some additional role in controlling who would sit on the board that regulates it. This ties FirstEnergy to two of five slots on the PUCO in the time frame the company was accused of criminal conduct.The PUCO plays a key role in overseeing utility companies, which operate in a monopolistic market. The PUCO sets what rates utilities can charge for energy; what additional fees they can pass on to customers; and whether their profits are “significantly excessive” in violation of state law.To possibly avert a charge of honest services wire fraud, FirstEnergy entered what’s known as a deferred prosecution agreement with federal prosecutors in July 2021. The company agreed to pay a $230 million penalty and admit to an extended narrative of how it bribed House Speaker Larry Householder, R-Glenford, and PUCO chairman Sam Randazzo in exchange for several legislative and regulatory favors to save the company hundreds of millions.More specifically, prosecutors say the company transferred more than $60 million into an account secretly controlled by Householder between 2017 and 2019 used for personal and political purposes, and paid Randazzo’s business $4.3 million just before he started as PUCO chairman.The criminal allegations regarding Householder center on House Bill 6 — 2019 legislation that bailed out nuclear plants owned at the time by a FirstEnergy subsidiary and put ratepayers on the hook to “recession-proof” the company, as its CEO said. Householder has pleaded not guilty and awaits trial. Randazzo has maintained his innocence and has not been charged with a crime.
Former Ohio regulator linked to $4 million payoff directed agency to limit response to FirstEnergy corruption - Newly produced documents show that Sam Randazzo, former chair of the Public Utilities Commission of Ohio, came up with the idea to let FirstEnergy show it didn’t use ratepayer money for House Bill 6, the nuclear and coal bailout law at the heart of Ohio’s largest corruption case.FirstEnergy was identified as “Company A” in the federal government’s complaint against former Ohio House Speaker Larry Householder and others in July 2020. The complaint detailed how the company, its affiliates and others had funneled roughly $60 million to dark money groups to elect lawmakers friendly to Householder, pass the state’s nuclear and coal bailout law, and prevent a voter referendum on the law.FirstEnergy later disclosed that it had paid $4 million to a company linked to Randazzo shortly before he became PUCO chair. The company admitted last summerthat it made the payment with the expectation that Randazzo would act in FirstEnergy’s interests with respect to HB 6 and other legislative and regulatory priorities. Randazzo is now a defendant in the state of Ohio’s civil conspiracy case arising out of HB 6.Seven weeks after the federal government’s complaint became public, the PUCO still hadn’t taken any action. The Office of the Ohio Consumers’ Counsel asked the agency to order an independent investigation and management audit of FirstEnergy’s utilities, corporate governance and activities relating to HB 6. The Consumers’ Counsel also asked for an independent audit on an unlawful rider under which FirstEnergy’s utilities had collected more than $450 million.Randazzo sent a heads up about the consumers’ counsel’s move to Gov. Mike DeWine’s former chief of staff, Laurel Dawson, whose former firm and whose husband had done lobbying work for FirstEnergy. “Thanks, Sam. Will be back in touch,” Dawson replied on Sept. 9, 2020.Even then, the PUCO didn’t do anything until Matt Schilling, PUCO’s public affairs director, sent several news clips to Randazzo and others on Sept. 15, 2020. “PUCO needs to ‘connect the dots,’” said one editorial headline from the Sandusky Register.“So, we need to do something to respond to OCC’s request for an investigation,” Randazzo said in a group email that afternoon. “It was/is my understanding that we were going to put out an AE [Attorney Examiner] entry requesting comments on OPCC [the Consumers’ Counsel’s] request.”“Just thinking out loud…since this issue has grabbed media attention would it be better to have commissioners issue something asking for comments at our next meeting instead of an AE?” asked Commissioner Beth Trombold in response. “Just wondering if it would signal better that we are engaged.”“I don’t care which path we take … I have a slight preference for doing something sooner,” Randazzo responded. He went on to say that the PUCO already audited FirstEnergy’s riders. “My point here is that we need to be proactive…” PUCO Deputy Director Katherine Fleck then offered to put something together for commissioners and others, including Schilling, to review.“We could, on our own initiative, issue a show cause order to FE [FirstEnergy] directing FE to demonstrate that no costs associated with HB 6 have been included in any riders or base rates,” Randazzo wrote.Senior utilities attorney examiner Gregory Price issued that order that afternoon. He’s also an attorney examiner in some of the PUCO’s other limited-issue FirstEnergy cases relating to HB 6.
Thousands of Abandoned Ohio Oil and Gas Wells May Be Hidden; Drones Could Help Find Them - Journal of Petroleum Technology -After successful trials using drones to discover abandoned oil and gas wells, Ohio authorities are looking to expand their use and to speed up remediation at hundreds of sites across the state. Ohio has roughly 1,000 sites on its orphan well inventory. There likely are “many more,” said Eric Vendel, chief of the Ohio Department of Natural Resources’ Division of Oil and Gas Resources Management. The hope is that drones equipped with magnetometers could help locate wells that are not yet on the state’s radar. Orphan wells in Ohio are a subset of the larger group of abandoned oil and gas wells, where no legally responsible owner can be found. Until wells are identified, however, it is unclear whether they should be fixed by the state under its orphan well program. Until now, there have not been good tools to systematically identify which of the quarter-million wells drilled in the state since the mid-19th century have been properly plugged or should be deemed orphan wells. In many cases, wells have come onto Ohio’s orphan well list only after people reported problems. In one case, for example, a well was found under the gym floor at a Lorain County grade school. Nor has any systematic on-the-ground survey been done to check whether recorded wells were properly plugged. Magnetometers have been used to find wells and other geological anomalies for decades. The equipment looks for specific changes in the ground’s magnetic field that signal the presence of a vertical well casing. Walking sites with equipment is time-consuming, however, so it hasn’t been done in a systematic manner statewide. The growing popularity of remotely piloted aerial vehicles, or drones, within the past 20 years has paved the way for surveys to be done efficiently over larger areas. The magnetometer itself looks like a yard-long white surfboard. It hangs from a remote-controlled drone with a wingspan of 4 to 5 ft. “It’s a pretty big piece of equipment,” said Rob Lowe, a survey section manager at the Ohio Department of Natural Resources’ (ODNR) Division of Oil and Gas Resources Management. His section was formally established in 2016.
ODNR in the crosshairs over Martins Ferry's Austin Master plant - — The Austin Masters Services frack waste processing plant in Martins Ferry continues to face criticism from some area residents for its handling of waste products.On Wednesday, an online meeting hosted by the Ohio Department of Natural Resources attracted nearly two dozen residents and members of Concerned Ohio River Residents advocacy group. ODNR representatives Adam Schroader and Tara Kinsey-Lee were pelted with questions and criticism, with participants saying ODNR was not acting quickly enough to regulate the waste product industry, among other concerns.Schroader opened the meeting by explaining the new rule for regulating companies that deal with waste products from hydraulic fracturing operations in the natural gas and oil industry.“The rule governs the citing, permitting, construction, operation and reclamation of oil and gas waste facilities,” he said. “The rule includes general provisions that ensure the prevention of contamination and pollution, protection of underground s ystem drinking water and surface water, and the appropriate handling of oil and gas waste.”Other aspects of the rule include public notices, permit requirements, water well sampling, enforcement procedures and citing criteria.Some meeting attendees were critical that it took so long for a rule to be instituted. The question-and-answer session followed immediately after the explanation of the rule, with many of the questions for ODNR prepared beforehand. Roxanne Groff expressed confusion over injection wells and facilities in referencing the new rule. Kinsey-Lee said a company has 15 days to produce information that is requested. She said the process of sharing information with the public begins with ODNR’s public notice on its website and a notice in the local newspaper “to notify partners required in the format of the rules” after an application to permit a well is filed.
Ohio needs a consistent earthquake-risk policy on permitting fracking waste wells - cleveland.com - Northeast Ohio’s unique geology has long made it a favored site for deep-injection-well disposal of toxic waste. But 35 years ago, two geologists from Columbia University’s Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory -- John Armbruster and Leonardo Seeber -- first linked a 1987 swarm of Ashtabula County earthquakes to a 1986 injection well. The two men pinpointed the epicenter of the main July 1987 earthquake at 0.7 kilometers from the well, which had started pumping toxic fluids into the sandstone formation one year earlier. They also found that the injected fluids had triggered a previously unknown near-vertical fault in the region’s basement rocks.
SARTA seeks to build support for hydrogen hub in Ohio - Canton Repository – The Stark Area Regional Transit Authority is part of a new alliance seeking a $2 billion federal grant to help build a hydrogen industry hub in the region. The public agency — which uses hydrogen to fuel some of its bus fleet — banded together with about 62 other organizations and government leaders last month to form the Ohio Clean Energy Hub Alliance and begin pushing for the concept. The goal is to provide a cleaner energy source with no or little carbon emissions and to create of tens of thousands of jobs in an area that could encompass Ohio, western Pennsylvania and West Virginia. The U.S. Department of Energy this week began seeking feedback on how to allocate $8 billion to fund at least four clean hydrogen energy hubs throughout the country. The hubs would be areas or regions where the federal government would invest the money, hoping to spark the development of a clean energy hydrogen industry that doesn't contribute to climate change. Such a hub would be close to an energy source that would eventually include emerging industries for generation, storage and transportation to the end users. At least one hub would be based on extracting hydrogen from a fossil fuel, which can include natural gas; one from nuclear power; and one from renewable energy sources. One of the goals is to reduce the cost of hydrogen, which powers fuel cells, down to $1 a kilogram within a decade. SARTA now pays roughly $6 to $10 a kilogram for its 20 hydrogen vehicles. SARTA says a kilogram of hydrogen provides roughly the equivalent of a gallon of diesel. The ultimate federal goals are a carbon-free electrical grid by 2035 and a carbon-free emission economy by 2050. The $1.2 trillion infrastructure bill approved by Congress and signed into law by President Joe Biden in November authorized the new grant program.
Pennant Midstream to supply Australian company with renewable natural gas -Pennant Midstream, which operates wet and dry gas and natural gas liquid pipelines in Pennsylvania and Ohio, signed a series of agreements last year with a subsidiary of Australia-based Energy Developments (EDL) to accept delivery of renewable natural gas (RNG) into its natural gas gathering system. Pennant will transport RNG from the Carbon Limestone Landfill near Youngstown, Ohio, to EDL’s downstream markets. The gas from the landfill is a byproduct of naturally decomposing materials. EDL will process and condition the gas at its largest North American RNG facility to meet Pennant’s gas quality requirements. Gas will be transported starting in early 2023. The Pennant system will take up to 6,500 thousand cubic feet daily once fully operational. “EDL has owned and operated an extensive portfolio of landfill gas to electricity plants across the United States since 1998; and in recent years, several large plants converting landfill gas to RNG,” James Harman, EDL CEO, said. “We are proud to leverage our waste to clean energy expertise through developments such as the Carbon Limestone RNG project and to assist one of our key customers with their goal of de-carbonizing through renewable gas supply.” Accepting delivery of the RNG from the landfill will reduce carbon dioxide emissions by up to 127,500 metric tons annually.
You can't stop a well pad, they were told. Turns out, you can - Pittsburgh Post-Gazette - Jo and Tim Resciniti did what many residents of townships slated for shale development had done before them. They fretted. They talked to their neighbors. They requested public documents. They organized a group, called Crowd, which stands for Concerned Residents of West Deer. When they solicited advice, it came loudly and clearly: You can’t stop a township from granting a land-use permit for oil and gas drilling, as long as the application is complete and complies with the zoning ordinance. “Pretty much everybody told us there was nothing we can do about it,” Ms. Resciniti said. “They were very generous with [that] advice.” It’s so uncommon for a township to deny a permit for an oil and gas well that people in the industry or those opposed to it can cite the legal cases. Because oil and gas extraction is a legal land use in Pennsylvania that must be allowed somewhere in every municipality, it is presumed not to be detrimental to safety and health when it complies with the law. Passing judgment on whether oil and gas is good or bad, healthy or unhealthy, falls to the Legislature. Environmental regulation falls to the state Department of Environmental Protection. Many people who have raised concerns to their township officials about potential air, water or quality-of-life impacts from proposed fracking activity have been told that’s not within a municipality’s purview to consider. In general, it’s been said like this: A municipality can regulate where the fracking is done but not how. But residents and environmental groups have been chipping away at those limits on multiple, parallel tracks and the efforts have intensified, according to the annual energy industry reports put out by Babst Calland, the law firm that represented Olympus Energy in its application to drill for natural gas in West Deer. To cut to the chase, it was a shock to the Rescinitis — and no doubt to others who have followed the industry — when, on Dec. 15, the West Deer Board of Supervisors unanimously denied Olympus’ conditional-use application to build a well pad it called Dionysus. The board deemed it highly probable that “the proposed deep well site will substantially affect the health, safety and welfare of the community, greater than what is normally expected from this type of use.” The members were swayed by testimony from residents in other townships who live next to other Olympus wells and by an analysis of the company’s state environmental violations, among other things. Even the supervisor that works in the oil and gas industry, whom Crowd had tried to prevent from voting on the issue, sided with the group.
Fracking In Pennsylvania Contaminates Drinking Water & Harms Pregnant Women – CleanTechnica - New research has shown that fracking in Pennsylvania has contaminated the drinking water where pregnant women live. Dr. Sandra Steingraber shared a thread on Twitter along with the link to the study. The study found evidence that drilling shale gas wells negatively impacts both the drinking water quality and the health of infants, indicating large social costs of water pollution.NEW RESEARCH: #Fracking in PA contaminates drinking water where pregnant women live and harms their infants. So, here's a link to the goddamn abstract and bc I have a PhD and a full-text pre-proof, I'll do an whole thread but as a mom: THIS IS ENOUGH https://t.co/O71mJEu97z — Dr. Sandra Steingraber (@ssteingraber1) February 10, 2022In her thread, Dr. Steingraber noted that this is a first of its kind study that used exact locations of mothers’ residences, gas wells, and public drinking water sources. The study combined the data with dates of infant births, measurement of water contaminants, and the timing of drilling and fracking activities.The results, she added, showed that prenatal exposure to a fracking well drilled within one kilometer (or 0.62 miles) of water sources, along with drilling near a mother’s home, raises risks for both preterm birth and low birthweight. Preterm birth, she added, is the leading cause of disability in the United States.“Notably, the increases in drinking water contaminants near fracking activities documented by the research team often were not sufficient to trigger regulatory violations. The authors thus conclude that the infant health harms they found were either due to increases in regulated water contaminants below the threshold level OR ‘unregulated contaminants that we, unfortunately, cannot observe.'”Dr. Steingraber also added her own context. “Both could be true. The federal government has legal limits for just over 90 contaminants in drinking water. No new chemicals have been added to the Maximum Contaminant Level list for 20 years, nor were limits set with prenatal or infant development in mind.“Back to the results: ‘We find consistent and robust evidence that drilling shale gas wells negatively impacts both drinking water quality and infant health.’“Personal comment: I’ve been reading fracking and public health data pretty much daily for 10 years, and I still cry. Is anyone okay with these data? I’m not.” You can read Dr. Steingraber’s full thread here.
Construction wraps on problem-plagued Mariner East pipeline - Work is finished on a multibillion-dollar pipeline system that connects the vast Marcellus Shale gas field in western Pennsylvania to an export terminal near Philadelphia, according to its corporate owner, which faces criminal charges that it fouled waterways and residential water supplies during pipeline construction. Energy Transfer said Wednesday that construction work on its Mariner East pipeline network was completed this month. The announcement was included in the company's fourth-quarter earnings report. The Texas-based company said it was preparing to put the newest pipeline into service. The Mariner East 1, Mariner East 2 and Mariner East 2X pipelines are designed to carry propane, ethane and butane from the Marcellus Shale and Utica Shale gas fields to a refinery processing center and export terminal in Marcus Hook. In October, Energy Transfer was charged criminally after a grand jury concluded that it broke Pennsylvania environmental laws and fouled waterways and residential water supplies across hundreds of miles as Mariner East was built. Prosecutors said Energy Transfer ruined the drinking water of at least 150 families statewide. A spill of thousands of gallons of drilling fluid contaminated wetlands, a stream and part of a 535-acre lake at Marsh Creek State Park outside Philadelphia. The company has yet to enter a plea in the case. Energy Transfer has been assessed more than $24 million in civil fines, including a $12.6 million fine in 2018 that was one of the largest ever imposed by the state. State regulators have periodically shut down pipeline construction. Even so, the operational portion of the Mariner East network transported a growing volume of natural gas liquids last year, up nearly 10% over 2020, the company said. With work on the final phase of construction now complete, total capacity is projected at 350,000 to 375,000 barrels per day.
Mariner East pipeline project is finished, after years of environmental damage, construction delays -Pipeline builder Energy Transfer says it has finished the troubled 350-mile-long Mariner East natural gas liquids project — five years after construction began, two years after the initial planned completion date, and several months after the state Attorney General’s office filed 48 criminal charges against the Texas-based company. The bulk of the product will be shipped to Scotland to make plastics.Pennsylvania’s Department of Environmental Protection issued new permits in December allowing construction on the section of the pipe that had been halted since August 2020, after the company spilled between 21,000 and 28,000 gallons of drilling mud fluid into Marsh Creek Lake. That Chester County section was one of the last parts of the line to be completed.The end of pipeline construction means the focus will be on shipping more Marcellus and Utica Shale gas overseas — something welcomed by building trades looking to boost jobs at the export terminal in Marcus Hook, but dreaded by those living with an operating pipeline in their backyards.“This is bad news,” said Ginny Marcille-Kerslake, a Chester County resident and organizer for Food and Water Watch. “Putting the … Mariner East 2 pipeline into operation means increased risk of a catastrophic explosion in densely populated communities in Southeastern Pennsylvania.” Kerslake said there are no good emergency plans in the event of a leak. The pipes contain natural gas liquids (NGL) including ethane, butane and propane. They are not odorized, and are heavier than air. When a leak occurs, they sink and can easily ignite and explode. She said families are “put at unacceptable risk for this out-of-state corporation to profit from shipping fracked ethane overseas for more plastic junk. Relying on luck is not enough.”
WV House changes bill to weaken oversight of oil and gas tanks closest to public water intakes - A bill easing aboveground storage tank regulations was rendered signi¦cantly more lenient toward oil and gas tank operators by an amendment added Monday on the §oor of the West Virginia House of Delegates. House Bill 2598 was amended to include tanks closest to public water intakes among those that would be exempted from mandated evaluations and certi¦cations by registered professional engineers or other approved individuals under the state Aboveground Storage Tank Act. The state de¦nes zones of critical concern — the areas nearest to water intakes — as consisting of a ¦ve-hour water-travel time in streams to an intake. The bill would allow tanks in that category with 210 barrels (8,820 gallons) or less of brine water and other §uids produced in connection with hydrocarbon production, transmission and storage to be self-inspected and self-certi¦ed by their owner or operator at least once per year and reported to the state. Also covered by the exemption would be tanks with 10,000 gallons or less of sodium chloride or calcium chloride water for roadway snow and ice pretreatment. Owners or operators would only have to perform and document secondary containment inspections at least once per month, less often than the current requirement that they be inspected once every two weeks. House Energy and Manufacturing Committee Vice Chairman John Kelly, R-Wood, moved to amend the bill during Monday’s §oor session, saying he did so at the request of the West Virginia Department of Environmental Protection. DEP general counsel Jason Wandling agreed with committee Chairman Bill Anderson, R-Wood, prior to the panel’s approval of the bill last week that it was a “reasonable compromise,” compared with last year’s version of HB 2598. Last year’s HB 2598 would have fully exempted the category of tanks closest to water intakes holding up to nearly 9,000 gallons of oil or gas from regulation under the Aboveground Storage Tank Act, which requires registration and certi¦ed inspection of such tanks, as well as the submission of spill-prevention response plans. The Legislature passed the Aboveground Storage Tank Act in 2014 in response to the Elk River chemical spill in January of that year that contaminated the drinking water supply for 300,000 people. The Medicis Are Back americanbanker.com Nearly 11,000 gallons of a mixture of a coal-cleaning solvent and polyglycol ethers escaped a Freedom Industries aboveground storage tank and §owed downstream to the intake of a West Virginia American Water treatment facility 11/2 miles downriver. The Legislature has gradually weakened its oversight of oil and gas tanks since then. The exemptions started a year after the Elk River spill, when the Legislature in 2015 scaled back the Aboveground Storage Tank Act to only require inspection of tanks that contain either 50,000 gallons or more of hazardous material or are located within a zone of critical concern. In 2017, the Legislature carved out an exemption for tanks outside of zones of critical concern.
Dominion announces deal to sell West Virginia natural gas utility --- Dominion Energy has reached an agreement to sell a natural gas utility in West Virginia.According to a release, Dominion will sell Hope Gas, Inc. to Ullico Inc’s infrastructure fund for $690 million, and the deal is expected to close later this year.Ullico then plans to integrate the utility into Hearthstone Utilities, Inc., which is a portfolio company that owns and operates gas utilities in Indiana, Maine, Montana, North Carolina, and Ohio. As part of the agreement, Hearthstone will also move its headquarters to West Virginia.
Mountain Valley hits another snag in its pipeline plans -Already slowed by winter weather and a court’s reversal of two vital permits, construction of the Mountain Valley Pipeline has hit another hiatus. The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers said this week it will not act on Mountain Valley’s pending application to cross streams and wetlands now that a federal appeals court has struck down another agency’s conclusion that the pipeline would not jeopardize endangered species in its path. “Our evaluation will require review of a valid BO,” or biological opinion, from the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, Col. Jayson Putnam of the Army Corps wrote in a letter Wednesday to an attorney for pipeline opponents. On Feb. 3, the 4th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals invalidated an opinion from the federal Fish and Wildlife Service, ruling that the agency had not adequately considered how construction of the 303-mile long natural gas pipeline would impact endangered species in its path. After receiving the letter from Putnam, attorney Derek Teaney of Appalachian Mountain Advocates on Friday withdrew a request to the Fourth Circuit to stay the stream-crossing permitting process, which had been made before the Feb. 3 ruling. With the Corps’ assurance that it will not move forward for now, there is no longer a showing of “irreparable harm” to the environment that would have required a stay, Teaney wrote in court documents. The latest development means that Mountain Valley is nowhere close to obtaining three sets of federal permits it needs to complete the $6.2 billion project. “The recent letter from the Corps means MVP can’t be granted an ‘all access pass’ to our waterways before the pipeline’s effects on endangered fish are carefully studied,” Caroline Hansley, a senior organizer with the Sierra Club, said in a statement Friday. In rejecting the biological opinion, the Fourth Circuit cited concerns about the fate of two endangered species — the Roanoke logperch and the candy darter — that feed along river bottoms that are in danger of being coated by sediment washed by rainfall from pipeline construction sites. Mountain Valley has been cited nearly 400 times with violating state regulations meant to limit erosion and sedimentation.
Chickahominy Pipeline will 'press pause' on project crossing five Central Va. counties - Chickahominy Pipeline says it will “press pause” on the development of a pipeline through five Central Virginia counties to supply a planned natural gas power plant in Charles City County known as Chickahominy Power. Beth Minear, a spokesperson for Chickahominy Pipeline, confirmed Monday that Chickahominy Pipeline had notified all five counties of the change in plans. The company attributed the halt to a decision by the regional electric grid manager, PJM, to remove the 1,600 megawatt natural gas Chickahominy Power from its planning queue because of its failure to meet development deadlines. In a filing with the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission, PJM said it had canceled Chickahominy Power’s interconnection service agreement — a plan for how new electric generation will be incorporated into the broader grid — because the company “failed to meet its milestones,” including one requiring that 20 percent of the site construction be completed by November 2021. Furthermore, PJM said it had rejected the company’s request to extend those milestones “because Chickahominy has demonstrated no diligence or meaningful progress on the Chickahominy Project since entering the queue in October 2016.” On Friday, FERC upheld PJM’s decision, finding that it had been reasonable and that “in light of the continued regulatory uncertainty facing the project, Chickahominy’s proposed project development timeline appears speculative at this juncture.”
Propane industry part of coalition supporting Line 5 litigation -A coalition of energy product transporters and manufacturers, including propane industry stakeholders, is supporting litigation to keep open the Enbridge Line 5 light oil and natural gas liquids pipeline serving Michigan, the surrounding states and Canada.The coalition, representing retail propane marketers, propane and crude oil pipeline operators, and gasoline, diesel, jet fuel and industrial raw materials manufacturers, filed an amicus brief in federal district court in support of litigation to block Michigan’s attempt to shut down the pipeline.The brief was filed as part of the litigation between Enbridge and the state of Michigan in response to a November 2020 order issued by Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer to shut down the pipeline. Whitmer maintains that Line 5 poses a threat to the Great Lakes.According to the Association of Oil Pipe Lines, the amicus brief reiterates federal law through the Pipeline Safety Act preempts Michigan’s attempts to shut down an interstate pipeline because Congress granted the federal government exclusive authority to regulate interstate pipeline safety.“Attempts by Michigan’s governor to shut down the Line 5 pipeline not only will lead to major energy shortages in the region and severe economic consequences for Michigan, neighboring states and Canada, but it is unlawful and a violation of federal law,” says Andy Black, president and CEO of the Association of Oil Pipe Lines. The National Propane Gas Association (NPGA) and four state propane associations (Indiana, Michigan, Ohio and Wisconsin) signed the amicus brief. “Line 5’s continued operation is crucial to reliably heating homes in Michigan and surrounding states,” says Steve Kaminski, president and CEO of NPGA. “The environmental benefits and relative affordability of propane – recognized by the EPA as a clean, alternative fuel – perfectly positions it to accelerate decarbonization and ensure equitable access to clean energy.”
New report finds Enbridge Line 5 closure will cause little pain to Michigan - Among the arguments used by Canadian energy giant Enbridge in support of its Line 5 pipeline that runs through Michigan is that, if it’s closed, there will be a significant impact on energy prices for consumers. But a new report, released Wednesday, takes issue with that assessment, concluding that any energy increases will be modest if the shutdown is coordinated properly. Environmental Defence Canada, an environmental group, commissioned the report from experts in the gas and oil sector. It suggests that shutting down Line 5 is manageable and that there are other options to meet Canada’s demand for oil and gas. The report, written by Martin Meyers of Meyers Energy Consulting, LLC, found there are viable alternatives to Line 5, which runs from Wisconsin down through the environmentally sensitive Straits of Mackinac and across Michigan to Sarnia, Ontario. Enbridge Line 78, for instance, flows from Illinois through Indiana to Sarnia, the report notes, and can be run at greater capacity to help recoup oil lost from Line 5. In addition, adding rail and truck capacity, as well as one more marine tanker, can make up the remaining shortfall, the report concludes. “The impact of these changes on consumer prices for refined petroleum products such as gasoline and diesel fuel in Ontario and Quebec would likely be very modest, to the point that such changes would likely go unnoticed,” the report concludes. Line 5 is part of Enbridge’s oil and gas pipeline system in western Canada. It carries oil from Superior, Wisconsin through the Straits of Mackinac into Michigan, reaching refineries in Sarnia, Ontario.Opponents of Line 5, which include Indigenous tribes, want the oil pipeline shut down, saying the aging pipes that run along the bottom of the straits pose a risk of polluting the Great Lakes, the world’s largest accessible body of freshwater.Proponents argue the pipeline is safe and well monitored and must remain open to keep trade, jobs and the economy going. They also claim that, without Line 5, Canada and rural northern Michigan will face an energy crisis because there isn’t an alternative to it.Whitney Gravelle, attorney for and chairperson of the Bay Mills Indian Community, opposes Line 5 and said the new report supports Tribal Nations’ appeals to shut down the pipeline and any additions to it.“It only reaffirms essentially what we've been saying all along here in the state of Michigan and from our respective tribal nations that Line 5 can be decommissioned and shut down with minimal impacts,” Gravelle said. Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer announced the state would shut down Line 5 in 2021 but that effort is currently tied up in federal litigation with Enbridge. Canada is backing the Canadian energy company and contends that any efforts by Michigan to shut down the pipeline would breach an international treaty between the two countries.Robert Leddy, a spokesperson for Whitmer, said Tuesday the governor intends on following through with closing Line 5, but he did not specifically comment on the report’s findings.
FERC sets new environmental hurdles for gas pipeline approvals - The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission moved Thursday to more rigorously consider the effects of climate change in weighing whether to approve proposed gas pipelines or related infrastructure projects. The decision will make it more difficult to build infrastructure for fossil fuels, an outcome sought by environmentalists. FERC commissioners voted 3-2 to update the commission's pipeline certificate policy statement and to adopt an "interim greenhouse gas emissions policy statement" to account for a project's greenhouse gas emissions as well as its effects on local landowners and "environmental justice communities," or those which are especially subject to pollution, in gauging if the project is in the public's interest. The commission's three Democratic nominees voted for the measures and the two Republicans against. A fact sheet put out by the commission explains, "The more interests adversely affected, or the more adverse impact a project will have on a particular interest, the greater the showing of public benefits from the project must be to balance the adverse impact." It also said pending and future projects are subject to the updated policy statement. The move was hailed by liberal Democrats and environmentalists, who generally view regulatory agencies like FERC as critical to mitigating climate change. Energy and Commerce Committee Chairman Frank Pallone, a New Jersey Democrat, praised the decision and called it "a significant step towards protecting the property rights of private landowners and ensuring that environmental justice communities are treated fairly and equitably in the pipeline certification process." Meanwhile, critics described the decision as political and threatening to the energy industry. Senate Energy Committee Chairman Joe Manchin, a West Virginia Democrat, said the commission "went too far by prioritizing a political agenda over their main mission — ensuring our nation’s energy reliability and security."
FERC issues 'historic' overhaul of pipeline approvals - The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission issued sweeping new guidance yesterday for natural gas projects, including a first-ever climate change threshold, upending decades of precedent for how major energy infrastructure is approved. FERC updated a 23-year-old policy for assessing proposed natural gas pipelines, adding new considerations for landowners, environmental justice communities and other factors. In a separate but related decision, the commission also laid out a framework for evaluating projects’ greenhouse gas emissions. The commission’s three Democratic members approved both policies, while the two Republicans on the panel opposed them. The natural gas orders came during FERC’s regular open meeting, during which the agency also opened a new proceeding on technologies to make electric power lines more efficient and announced a new senior staff member at the Office of Public Participation. Set up for the first time last year, the office is designed to help members of the public engage with the agency as well as provide technical support for those affected by commission decisions. The revised policies represent a notable departure for FERC, which critics say has a pattern of “rubber-stamping” gas pipelines and liquefied natural gas terminals without enough consideration for environmental harms or effects on communities. But while environmental advocates and some Democratic lawmakers welcomed the decisions, natural gas groups and their allies said the changes could raise energy costs and make it harder to meet demand for gas. FERC’s Republican commissioners also said the policies go beyond FERC’s role as an independent energy regulator, and Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.), the chair of the powerful Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee, called FERC’s moves “reckless.” “The Commission went too far by prioritizing a political agenda over their main mission — ensuring our nation’s energy reliability and security,” Manchin said in a statement. “The only thing they accomplished today was constructing additional road blocks that further delay building out the energy infrastructure our country desperately needs.” For years, FERC has generally looked for evidence of economic demand when considering whether or not to approve a new gas project, as outlined in its “certificate policy statement” on natural gas pipelines. So long as a developer could show that one or more shippers had committed to buying the gas, the independent agency would sign off on nearly all gas pipeline applications it received, under FERC policy and historic precedent. Until recently, FERC also generally did not consider how gas proposals would contribute to climate change. While the agency began evaluating projects’ greenhouse gas emissions last year, the commission had no agreed-upon method for determining whether a project’s climate change impacts would be significant. Under the revisions to the certificate policy statement approved yesterday, the commission will consider four major factors before approving a project: the interests of the developer’s existing customers; the interests of existing pipelines and their customers; environmental interests; and the interests of landowners, environmental justice populations and surrounding communities. Henceforward, the commission must weigh all of the benefits against all of the adverse impacts, FERC staff said.
Gas pipeline regulators to consider climate impacts for new projects -A federal agency that considers whether to approve or reject natural gas pipelines will now weigh the projects’ contributions to climate change as part of their decisions. In determining whether a project is in the public interest, the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) voted on Thursday to examine greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from the project’s construction and operations — as well as the emissions from when the gas is ultimately burned to make electricity. Environmental advocates have long criticized the agency for not considering these impacts in its reviews, and have more broadly argued that it should stop approving as many pipelines as it has in the past. According to a 2020 investigation by House Democrats, the agency has, over the past 20 years, approved more than 99 percent of the pipeline projects that have come before it. While FERC’s three Democratic commissioners supported the proposal, its two Republican members opposed it. Chairman Richard Glick (D) said that under the new policy, even if a project will have significant climate change impacts, the commission could still find that its benefits outweigh those costs. He also argued that the decision will add legal certainty, as courts can block FERC-approved projects based on environmental concerns. “If we were to continue the commission’s turning a blind eye to climate change and greenhouse gas emissions, we would simply be adding to the legal uncertainty of each commission order approving a project,” Glick said. Republican Commissioner James Danly disagreed. “The contents are very amorphous,” he said. “It is very difficult for us to achieve the objectives of the Natural Gas Act, which is to encourage the orderly development of natural gas infrastructure…when we’re adopting policies that are either vague or make it difficult to rationally allocate capital.” The new guidance will be applied immediately, though it was only issued on an interim basis. The agency is currently accepting public comments on it, and may make changes down the line based on that feedback. The move is already meeting some opposition from industry. Amy Andryszak, president and CEO of the Interstate Natural Gas Association of America, which represents pipeline interests, said in a statement that the guidance “does not add clarity to the certification process, but instead creates more questions.” “In the interim GHG policy statement, the majority established a seemingly arbitrary number to determine the significance of incremental GHG emissions from a project,” Andryszak said. “Further, it is uncertain how much mitigation will be required of developers to satisfy the Commission.” Meanwhile, the agency also announced that it would update guidelines for its reviews overall, including by taking on “robust consideration” of impacts to communities that are disproportionately harmed by pollution.
U.S. marketed natural gas production forecast to rise in 2022 and 2023 – EIA - We forecast that U.S. natural gas marketed production will increase to an average of 104.4 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) in 2022 and then further increase to a record-high 106.6 Bcf/d in 2023, according to our latest Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO). Around 97% of production over the next two years will come from the Lower 48 states (L48), excluding the Federal Offshore Gulf of Mexico (GOM). The other 3% will come from Alaska and the GOM.We estimate that the wholesale spot price of natural gas at the U.S. benchmark Henry Hub will average $3.92 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) in 2022, an eight-year high, and will average $3.60/MMBtu throughout 2023. We expect these elevated prices will drive continued increases in U.S. drilling activity and natural gas production.We forecast that legacy production—production from wells drilled before December 2021—in the L48 will average 83.2 Bcf/d in 2022 and fall 21% to 65.9 Bcf/d in 2023. However, production from new wells will contribute 18.1 Bcf/d in 2022 and increase to 37.8 Bcf/d in 2023, offsetting declining production from legacy wells and bringing total L48 marketed gas production to 103.7 Bcf/d in 2023.U.S. natural gas production growth will primarily come from the Appalachia region in the Northeast, the Permian region in western Texas and southeastern New Mexico, and the Haynesville region in Texas and Louisiana.Haynesville production will grow by 1.6 Bcf/d annually, on average, in the next two years, according to our STEO forecast. As natural gas prices remain elevated, drilling in the Haynesville region remains economical, even with relatively deeper and more expensive well development. In addition, Haynesville’s greater well productivity and its proximity to liquefied natural gas export terminals and major industrial natural gas consumers along the U.S. Gulf Coast draws operators to the region.We forecast that the Permian region will contribute 2.2 Bcf/d to production growth in 2022 and 1.2 Bcf/d in 2023. Our forecast for the West Texas Intermediate crude oil price remains above $60 per barrel, prompting operators to increase oil-directed drilling activity in the region, which would also increase associated gas production.In recent years, the Appalachia region has provided the largest share of U.S domestic natural gas output, accounting for one-third of L48 production annually since 2016. Although production growth has slowed in recent years because of less drilling activity and emerging pipeline capacity constraints, Appalachia well-level productivityhas been increasing, offsetting some of the drilling decline. We estimate that production from the Appalachia region will grow by 0.3 Bcf/d in 2022 and 0.7 Bcf/d in 2023.
Natural Gas Production Said on Pace for Growth Across Multiple Lower 48 Regions -Major U.S. onshore plays will add close to 500 MMcf/d of natural gas production from February to March on the strength of growth out of the Haynesville Shale and the Appalachian and Permian basins, according to updated modeling from the Energy Information Administration (EIA). In its latest Drilling Productivity Report (DPR), published Monday, EIA said it expects a combined 499 MMcf/d of production growth from seven key U.S. regions. Combined natural gas production from the Anadarko, Appalachian and Permian basins, as well as from the Bakken, Eagle Ford, Haynesville and Niobrara shales, will rise to 91.686 Bcf/d from February to March, the latest DPR data show.The Haynesville is set to lead with 174 MMcf/d of production growth month/month, with the Permian adding 124 MMcf/d of growth and the Appalachian region contributing an incremental 114 MMcf/d, according to EIA.Rounding out the other projected natural gas production changes, the agency predicted growth out of the Bakken (up 10 MMcf/d), Eagle Ford (up 78 MMcf/d) and Niobrara (up 4 MMcf/d), with the Anadarko expected to see output fall 5 MMcf/d month/month.Oil production from the seven plays is expected to grow 109,000 b/d to just over 8.7 million b/d from February to March. EIA predicted the largest output growth from the Permian at an incremental 71,000 b/d month/month, with the Eagle Ford on track to grow output 24,000 b/d. Other plays were predicted to see more modest sequential growth of 1,000-6,000 b/d for the period.The total drilled but uncompleted (DUC) well backlog across the seven regions shrank by 191 units from December to January to fall to 4,466, according to EIA’s latest count. Each of the seven regions saw a net decline in total DUC wells for the period, with the Permian posting the largest month/month drawdown at 89. DUC well declines were also recorded in the Anadarko (down 12), Appalachia (down 23), Bakken (down 27), Eagle Ford (down 28), Haynesville (down three) and Niobrara (down nine), the DPR data show. EIA’s DPR makes use of recent rig data along with drilling productivity estimates and estimated changes in production from existing wells to model changes in production from the seven regions.
Rally in natural gas futures as the European weather model reflects a prolonged winter; cash rallies – -- Natural gas futures staged a stunning recovery Monday as one of the major weather models added a huge chunk of demand to the late-February forecast. The March Nymex gas futures contract settled on the higher end of its trading range at $4.195/MMBtu, up 25.4 cents from Friday’s close. April jumped 22.5 cents to $4.160. Spot gas prices also strengthened as frigid temperatures continued to drive up heating demand across the eastern United States. NGI’s Spot Gas National Avg. climbed $1.040 cents to $5.670. The latest cold blast that hit the eastern United States this weekend is already its nearing its end, with temperatures set to rise by midweek ahead of another winter storm. It’s this weather system that sent the gas market into a tizzy on Monday as models disagreed on how long the chill would linger. NatGasWeather said the European model gained 17 heating degree days for the 15-day outlook, keeping the cold air around for the last week of February. The Global Forecast System (GFS), however, maintained through subsequent runs a “rather warm and bearish” set-up for Feb. 21-28. Bespoke Weather Services said the bias of the pattern is to the side of below-normal demand given the latest changes in the modeling. However, “it has less impact here, especially with production around 95 Bcf.” Nevertheless, the mere potential for cold to stick around into March appears to have caused a few jitters in the market since the next government inventory report could show inventories taking another large step down. The Energy Information Administration (EIA) is scheduled to release the next weekly storage report on Thursday and though another 200-plus Bcf withdrawal is unlikely, the draw is all but certain to blow past historical levels. NGI is modeling a 189 Bcf pull from stocks for the week ending Feb. 11. For comparison, a 227 Bcf withdrawal was recorded in the same period last year, and the five-year average draw is 154 Bcf.
The price of natural gas in the United States has risen more than 6%, owing to cooler forecasts and an increase in European prices --Natural gas futures in the United States increased by more than 6% on Monday as a result of forecasts for cooler weather and rising heating demand over the next two weeks. Traders claim a 8% rise in European gas prices that kept demand for US liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports at new highs. This is partly due to Russia's possibility of invading Ukraine and delaying gas deliveries to the rest of Europe. The price of front-month gas futures in the United States increased by 25.4 cents, or 6.4 percent, in March, with a profit of $4.195 per million British thermal units (mmBtu), the highest level since February 8. Gas futures traded around $27 per mmBtu in Europe and $25 in Asia. The US market has focused more on changes in weather and domestic demand in the United States than what is happening around the globe so far in 2022. Compared to Europe's oil prices, the United States only followed European prices for one third of the time. In the fourth quarter of 2021, the US market has focused more on changes in weather and domestic demand. The rise in European prices was difficult to ignore, indicating that demand for U.S. LNG will remain high as global gas prices fall significantly above futures, as utilities around the world strive for cargoes to meet growing demand in Asia and replenish low stockpiles in Europe. With growing concerns, Russia may invade Ukraine. Europe and the United States would likely impose sanctions on Moscow, which might cause Russia to reduce gas supplies to Europe. Russia is responsible for 30%-40% of Europe's gas supplies, totaling 16.3 billion by 2021. Tankers were loading at all seven LNG export facilities in the United States for the first time ever after Venture Global received approval from federal authorities to carry the first cargo at its Calcasieu Pass LNG plant in Louisiana on February 7th. A tanker was sent to Calcasieu on February 7 and will likely leave with the plant's first cargo this week. So far in February, the amount of gas flowing to all LNG export facilities in the United States increased to an average of 12.6 billion cubic feet per day, the highest level ever recorded in January as the Calcasieu liquefaction trains reached service. Refinitiv, a data provider, said average output in the Lower 48 states in the United States fell from a record of 97.3 billion in December to 94.0 billion in January and 92.4 billion so far in February, as well as in several producing regions. According to Refinitiv, output increased to 95.2 billion on Friday, the highest level since January 1, with a total of 86.3 billion in the day, which was the lowest level since February 2021. Temperatures in the spot market and rising heating demand in the Northeast have kept power and gas prices in New York and New England at or near their highest levels since January 2018.
Natural Gas Futures See Big Intraday Swings, Finish Higher on Chillier Weather Outlook - Natural gas futures were choppy Tuesday. Prices swung sharply higher early on the increasing potential for cold weather to linger into early March, but then retreated significantly as part of a broader commodities sell-off amid easing political tensions. The last half hour of trading brought another surge following the latest weather data, with the March Nymex gas futures rallying 11.1 cents to a $4.306/MMBtu settlement. April ticked up 8.1 cents to $4.241. Spot gas prices were mostly higher despite a mild break ahead of another winter storm targeting the Lower 48 this weekend. However, a huge slide in the Northeast sent NGI’s Spot Gas National Avg. tumbling $1.595 to $4.075. Although it looked like the upcoming winter blast could be the season’s final bow as recently as last week, models reversed course over the past few runs, erasing all the widespread warmth that had been in the forecast for the end of the month. Bespoke Weather Services said the American and European models made yet another move in the colder direction overnight given some changes in the climate patterns. “Given all of the recent model volatility, confidence is back on the low side,” Bespoke said. “Signals from tropical forcing do not mesh with the colder changes, in our view, but the correlation certainly is not 1:1, so we remain cautious.” NatGasWeather noted that the midday Global Forecast System (GFS) was still warmer than the European model, but it trended closer in line by showing subfreezing temperatures moving more aggressively into the northern United States for Feb. 26-March 2. All said, the GFS added nearly 25 heating degrees in a 24-hour period. “Clearly, this is a bullish trend,” NatGasWeather said.
U.S. natgas jumps almost 10% to near 2-week high on colder forecasts (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures jumped almost 10% to a near two-week high on Wednesday on forecasts for much colder weather and higher heating demand through early March than previously expected. Traders noted that prices rose despite the slow return of U.S. production from cold weather-related reductions over the past month, and a 6% drop in European gas futures due to what looks like an easing of Russia-Ukraine tensions. Over the past month or so, the United States has worked with other nations to ensure that gas supplies — mostly from liquefied natural gas (LNG) — would keep flowing to Europe in case Russia cuts off exports to the rest of the continent. The United States and Europe have said they would sanction Russia if it invaded Ukraine, likely prompting Russia to cut some gas exports to Europe. Russia provides around 30%-40% of Europe's gas supplies, totaling about 16.3 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) in 2021. Since the start of the year, however, the U.S. gas market has focused more on changes in U.S. weather, domestic supply and demand than world events. So far in 2022, U.S. gas followed European prices only about a third of the time versus two-thirds in the fourth quarter. After weeks of near record volatility, U.S. front-month gas futures for March delivery rose 41.1 cents, or 9.5%, to settle at $4.717 per million British thermal units (mmBtu), their highest close since Feb. 3. Data provider Refinitiv said average gas output in the U.S. Lower 48 states fell from a record 97.3 bcfd in December to 94.0 bcfd in January and 92.7 bcfd so far in February, as cold weather froze oil and gas wells in several producing regions. But on a daily basis, gas production has gained almost every day since dropping to 86.3 bcfd during a Feb. 4 winter storm, reaching a high of 95.2 bcfd on Feb. 11, the most since Jan. 1. Output on Wednesday, however, was on track to slip for a second day in a row to a preliminary one-week low of 94.3 bcfd. Even though meteorologists forecast colder weather than previously expected, they still predicted higher temperatures next week than this week. Refinitiv projected average U.S. gas demand, including exports, would slide from 122.9 bcfd this week to 121.2 bcfd next week. Next week's forecast was higher than Refinitiv's outlook on Tuesday.
US natural gas inventories decline by 190 Bcf with smaller withdrawals ahead | S&P Global Platts - US gas storage inventories declined by less than 200 Bcf for the first time in a month and below-average draws appear likely in the weeks ahead, but the upcoming Henry Hub summer strip remains near $4.60/MMBtu. Storage fields withdrew 190 Bcf for the week ended Feb. 11, according to data released by the US Energy Information Administration on Feb. 17. Working gas inventories decreased to 1.911 Tcf. US storage volumes now stand 404 Bcf, or 17.5%, less than the year-ago level of 2.315 Tcf and 251 Bcf, or 11.6%, less than the five-year average of 2.162 Tcf. The withdrawal was less than the 197 Bcf draw expected by an S&P Global Platts survey of analysts. Responses to the survey ranged from a 185 Bcf to 214 Bcf withdrawal. It outpaced the five-year average of 154 Bcf but trailed last year's 227 Bcf pull in the corresponding week. That week in 2021 marked the early days of the deep freeze winter event that eventually drove the second-largest withdrawal on record. The NYMEX Henry Hub March contract fell 14 cents to $4.58/MMBtu following the EIA's storage report release. The prompt-month contract closed at $3.22/MMBtu this day last year. The upcoming summer strip, April through October, fell about 8 cents to $4.55/MMBtu. The South Central storage region drew 74 Bcf, the most of all five regions once again. Total Southeast demand was 6.6 Bcf/d higher than the five-year average in the month to date, driven by growing LNG demand, which is averaging 3.7 Bcf/d above the past five years, according to data by S&P Global Platts Analytics. Even excluding LNG demand, Southeast demand is setting new records for this part of February. Residential and commercial, industrial and power are averaging a combined 21.7 Bcf/d month to date, 2.8 Bcf/d above the five-year average. Res-comm demand is leading growth at 5.6 Bcf/d, 1.4 Bcf/d above the five-year average, while power demand is averaging 9.3 Bcf/d, 1 Bcf/d above the past five years. Industrial demand has also grown, to 6.7 Bcf/d in the month to date, 390 MMcf/d above the five-year average. Warmer weather ahead looks to slice into demand in the coming weeks. Population-weighted temperatures in the Southeast are expected to climb in the second half of the month to 58.5 degrees Fahrenheit, 7 degrees warmer than the month to date. On average, over the past five years, res-comm, industrial and power demand have fallen a combined 570 MMcf/d after Feb. 16, so demand may be set to fall through the rest of the month. A forecast by Platts Analytics calls for a 108-Bcf draw for the week ending Feb. 18, which would measure nearly 50 Bcf below the average draw and more than 200 Bcf less than last year.
U.S. natgas falls 5% on smaller-than-expected storage draw, rising output (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures fell about 5% on Thursday on a slightly smaller-than-expected storage draw last week and as production slowly recovered from cold weather-related reductions this month. Prices fell despite forecasts for colder weather and higher heating demand than expected, and even though higher global gas prices have kept demand for U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports near record highs. Traders said the U.S. gas market was shrugging off big moves in Europe, where gas prices were up about 8% on Thursday, due in part to supply concerns related to tension between Russia and Ukraine. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said utilities pulled 190 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas from storage during the week ended Feb. 11. Analysts cited near-record LNG exports for the bigger-than-normal withdrawal. The withdrawal was a little less than the 193-bcf decrease analysts forecast in a Reuters poll. It was smaller than the decline of 227 bcf in the same week last year, which was the start of the February freeze in Texas, but was more than the five-year (2017-2021) average decline of 154 bcf. After weeks of near record volatility, U.S. front-month gas futures for March delivery fell 23.1 cents, or 4.9%, to settle at $4.486 per million British thermal units (mmBtu). On Wednesday, the contract closed at its highest since Feb. 3. Data provider Refinitiv said average gas output in the U.S. Lower 48 states fell from a record 97.3 bcfd in December to 94.0 bcfd in January and 92.8 bcfd so far in February, as cold weather froze oil and gas wells in several producing regions. On a daily basis, gas production has gained almost every day since dropping to 86.3 bcfd during a Feb. 4 winter storm, reaching a high of 95.2 bcfd on Feb. 11, the most since Jan. 1. Output on Thursday was on track to hold at a preliminary 94.2 bcfd. With colder weather expected, Refinitiv projected average U.S. gas demand, including exports, would rise from 121.8 bcfd this week to 123.7 bcfd next week. The forecast for next week was higher than Refinitiv's outlook on Wednesday. Gas flowing to U.S. LNG export plants has risen to an average of 12.7 bcfd so far in February, which would top January's monthly record of 12.4 bcfd. A tanker arrived at Calcasieu on Feb. 7 and will likely leave with the plant's first cargo this week.
Unrelenting Cold Fuels Gains for Weekly Spot Natural Gas Prices; Futures Up, but Losing Momentum Futures prices also ended the week higher thanks to a much colder forecast for early March. Despite losing some steam late in the week, three straight days in the green were too much for bears to overcome. The March Nymex futures contract closed out the week at $4.431, up 23.6 cents from Monday’s settlement. With the latest winter storm ushering frigid temperatures and snow, gas markets rallied by more than $1.00 week/week in some parts of the Northeast. Iroquois Zone 1 cash jumped $2.190 to average $7.945, while Tenn Zone 5 200L picked up $2.475 to average $8.325. Upstream, Appalachia prices tacked on less than a quarter. Eastern Gas South was up 16.5 cents to $3.825. Prices in the western United States also put up stout price increases, with more messy weather systems set to hit the region beginning over the weekend. PG&E Citygate jumped 33.0 cents on the week to $4.840, while the SoCal Border Avg. moved up 41.5 cents to $4.210. AccuWeather said the first storm is expected to produce a wave of snow across the Washington and Oregon Cascades, as well as the mountainous terrain of Idaho, Montana and northwestern Wyoming from Sunday to Monday. A general swath of three to six inches is expected. Snow is forecast to expand into much of Wyoming, part of Utah, the Colorado Rockies, parts of northern Nevada and the northern Sierra Nevada by Tuesday. Areas much farther to the east in the Dakotas, Minnesota and Wisconsin also could be enveloped by snow. The second storm is set to arrive late Tuesday into Wednesday and is likely to be more impactful for the Southwest, according to AccuWeather. It is forecast to bring a moderate accumulation to much of the Sierra Nevada on the order of six to 10 inches with locally higher amounts. Strong winds also pose a fire risk to the drought-stricken region. How Long Will Winter Stick Around? With more cold in the forecast for the next couple of weeks, futures traders have been laser-focused on long-range models and whether the chilly temperatures could extend into March. Storage inventories already are well below historical levels, and any prolonged wintry weather could send stocks even lower ahead of the injection season.
EIA: US weekly LNG exports drop by four - EIA stated in its weekly LNG exports report that 23 LNG vessels departed the United States between 10 February and 16 February 2022. This is four LNG carriers less than the last reported week. Eight ships departed from Sabine Pass, five from Freeport, four from Cameron, three from Corpus Christi, two from Cove Point, and one from Elba Island. They held a combined LNG-carrying capacity of 85 billion cubic feet. On the other hand, the Henry Hub spot price rose from $4.06 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) last Wednesday to $4.39/MMBtu this week. Natural gas deliveries to LNG export facilities averaged 12.6 Bcf/d, or 0.2 Bcf/d higher than last week.
Huge U.S. Gulf Refinery Shutdowns Are Spooking the Gasoline Market -- When the second-largest U.S. refinery shuts down unexpectedly with no clarity as to when operations will return to normal, it could have an outsized impact on a market already squeezed for supplies. Marathon Petroleum Corp.’s 593,000 barrel-a-day Galveston Bay refinery in Texas City, Texas, got knocked out of commission Friday as frigid temperatures took out power across the Gulf Coast city. Marathon declined to comment on operations but the refiner has started buying some oil product, indicating it needs to cover obligations to customers, according to a person familiar with operations. Marathon may take several weeks to resolve issues that cropped up during the shutdown. Refiners this year are poised to enjoy fatter profit margins as stronger U.S. demand meets a market where more than 1 million barrels of capacity has been lost during the past two years. With a tightly supplied market and demand set to challenge 2019 levels, the last thing crude oil refiners need are unplanned outages slowing them down. Two Valero Energy Corp. refineries and one Chevron Corp. plant are also shut. Along with Marathon’s Galveston Bay, they represent about 1.2 million barrels a day of Gulf Coast refining capacity. Conventional spot gasoline in Houston jumped as much as 1.38 cents to a 1.5 cent premium to futures in New York on Monday, its strongest showing since Dec. 7. Valero’s 225,000 barrel-a-day plant in Texas City had begun restarting some production units as of Saturday after the Friday power loss, but could also take some days to restore full operations. Big production units like crude processors, cokers and fluid catalytic crackers can take time to restart after abrupt shutdowns leave liquid trapped in cooling pipes. Valero hasn’t responded to a request for comment. Meanwhile, Valero’s 263,800 barrel-a-day Houston refinery shut unexpectedly Monday amid heavy flaring. Chevron’s Pasadena refinery on the Houston Ship Channel is trying to restart operations after the boilers went down. Refinery utilization on the Gulf Coast, the largest concentration of U.S. refining might, was only 86% as of the week ended Jan. 28. This reflects the heavy maintenance season in progress as plants perform work that was pushed back in 2020 and 2021 to conserve cash during the height of the pandemic.
U.S. diesel stocks set to fall critically low: Kemp - Chartbook: https://tmsnrt.rs/3oV0eec (Reuters) - U.S. distillate fuel oil stocks are on course to fall critically low between now and the middle of the year, creating conditions for a potential spike in both crude and fuel prices, unless demand from freight firms falls. Distillate inventories slipped by another 2 million barrels last week to 120 million barrels, according to data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (“Weekly petroleum status report”, EIA, Feb. 16). Stocks are currently 28 million barrels (18%) below the pre-pandemic five-year seasonal average for 2015-2019 and at the lowest level for the time of year since 2014. Three-quarters of distillate fuel oil is sold to trucking firms, railroads and shipping companies to move farm products, industrial raw materials and manufactured items. Low inventories are a symptom of the booming demand for freight amid a rapid recovery from the coronavirus recession led by the manufacturing sector. Distillate inventories normally deplete during the first half of the year, reaching a short-term minimum before the end of June, as refineries undertake maintenance and focus on making gasoline for the summer driving season. If inventories continue to deplete in line with the average for the ten years before the pandemic, they will fall to 105 million barrels sometime before the end of June, with a range of as much as a comfortable 118 million barrels or as low as 94 million barrels, which would be exceptionally tight. Even the average projection for inventories in 2022 could see them dip to the lowest level for any year since 2007 (https://tmsnrt.rs/3oV0eec). And many trajectories would leave inventories far below levels experienced in the last 15 years. The prospect of a diesel shortage is pushing prices for distillates as well as gasoline and crude higher and could see them spike over the next few months. Low distillate stocks at mid-year would leave refiners racing to rebuild them before the next winter heating season. To avoid this scenario, refiners will have to process much more crude and/or reconfigure their equipment to boost the production of mid-distillates such as diesel and jet fuel at the expense of light distillates such as gasoline. But gasoline inventories are already 6 million barrels (-2.5%) below the pre-pandemic seasonal average, limiting the scope to squeeze them to rebuild distillate stocks by changing downstream processing. The shortage of distillate is bleeding into the gasoline market, driving up prices there to ensure refiners have an incentive to continue making gasoline rather than switching over to diesel. As a result, the only way for refiners to rebuild depleted distillate stocks will be processing more crude over the next six to nine months, boosting output of both light and medium distillates. The implied increase in refiners’ demand is likely to tighten global crude inventories even further and continue exerting upward pressure on oil prices through September. After adjusting for inflation, on-road diesel prices including taxes are at their highest for the time of year since 2014, averaging more than $4 per gallon (equivalent to $168 per barrel). But prices might need to rise much further to restrain consumption and avoid inventories falling to critically low levels.
USA Refiners Seek Alternatives to Russian Oil - Some U.S. producers of gasoline that have relied on imports of Russian oil are looking for alternative supplies amid heightened tensions in Eastern Europe. At least two major Gulf Coast refiners are seeking to diversify their purchases of fuel oil that can be used as a feedstock to produce gasoline and diesel, according to people familiar with the matter, who asked not to be named because they weren’t authorized to speak. One trader is looking for naphtha, a component of oil that’s used in gasoline blending, from sources other than Russia, another person said. The moves underscore the extent of concerns in the energy industry over the situation in Ukraine, after the Biden administration said Russia could invade. The Kremlin has repeatedly and firmly denied that it plans to attack. While the U.S. is the world’s largest oil producer and one of the biggest exporters, it’s still dependent on imports of crude products, and Russia is a top supplier. Biden has said the U.S. is ready to respond to a Russian attack with crippling economic sanctions. “Any restrictions on Russian flows would cause pain exclusively on the side of the buyer because the Russians can easily place their fuel oil in China or India,” said David Wech, chief economist at oil-data provider Vortexa Ltd. “That would put the U.S. in a difficult position because of the impact on gasoline prices,” he said. The questions over Russian oil supplies come as regular gasoline prices in the U.S. are the highest in almost eight years, putting further pressure on President Joe Biden to alleviate pain at the pump for consumers. Two refiners in Texas are reaching out to suppliers in Mexico and Brazil asking about long-term availability and prices, the people said. Brazil, which typically supplies fuel oil to Singapore and Europe, sold one cargo to the U.S. Gulf Coast in February and has another ship arriving by next month, according to tracking data compiled by Bloomberg. Russian straight-run fuel oil, known as Mazut 100, became a staple for refiners as it’s cheaper than crude oil, which is trading near the highest levels since 2014. The M100 can be used as either a crude substitute in the distillation tower, to top up crude oil from the Permian Basin, or as a feedstock to refinery units called cokers, to make gasoline. The versatility of Russian fuel oil makes it more desirable than the product supplied by Mexico, for example. Mexican fuel oil can only run in cokers, not in distillation units, due to its volatility. Valero Energy Corp, Exxon Mobil Corp. and Chevron Corp. are among the largest buyers of Russian fuel oil.
TotalEnergies Walks Away From North Platte Project in Gulf of Mexico --TotalEnergies, through its affiliate TotalEnergies E&P USA, has decided not to sanction and so to withdraw from the North Platte deepwater project in the US Gulf of Mexico (GOM), calling into question the development’s future. According to TotalEnergies, the decision was taken “as the company has better opportunities of allocation of its capital within its global portfolio.” The operator did not elaborate on what those opportunities might be. TotalEnergies holds a 60% operated interest in North Platte. Joint-interest owner Equinor holds the remaining 40% stake. TotalEnergies has notified Equinor and the relevant authorities of its immediate withdrawal from the project and of its resignation as operator which will be effective following a short transition period to ensure an orderly handover of operatorship. North Platte is a Paleogene discovery located across Garden Banks 959, Garden Banks 915, Garden Banks 916, and Garden Banks 958, in water depth of around 4,850 ft. It was one of three high pressure-/high temperature- fields under development in the GOM that would require 20,000-psi technology. In 2018, Statoil and Total completed their acquisition of Cobalt International Energy’s 60% operated interest in the North Platte discovery for an aggregate purchase price of $339 million. The partners had jointly presented the winning bid in a bankruptcy auction of some of Cobalt’s assets that was held on 6 March 2018. Statoil then owned a 40% nonoperated interest in North Platte, while Total increased its then 40% interest to 60% and took over operatorship. TotalEnergies remains a partner in Chevron’s Anchor project—another Paleogene find—which reached FID (final investment decision) in 2019 and will be drilled out using Transocean’s newbuild 20,000-psi Deepwater Titan drillship. Stage 1 of the Anchor development comprises a seven-well subsea development and semisubmersible floating production unit. First oil is anticipated in 2024. TotalEnergies awarded a front-end engineering design (FEED) contract for North Platte to Worley in early 2020. The base development plan comprised eight subsea wells and two subsea drilling bases connected via two production loops to a newbuild, lightweight FPU capable of producing 75,000 BOPD. Production would have been exported through existing oil and gas subsea networks.Separately, Beacon Offshore Energy reached FID on the Shenandoah project last year andhas contracted another new, 20,000 psi-capable Transocean drillship, the Deepwater Atlas,for the wells on that development. Hyundai Heavy Industries is building the semisubmersible floating production unit (FPU) for the project. First oil is expected in late 2024 or early 2025.
Petrobras Green Flags Gulf Of Mexico Assets Sale - Brazilian oil and gas company Petrobras has started a non-binding phase for the sale of interests in a joint venture company that owns interests in 14 offshore fields in the U.S. part of the Gulf of Mexico. Petrobras confirmed the beginning of the non-binding phase regarding the sale of the entire 20 percent stake held by its subsidiary Petrobras America Inc. (PAI) in the Texas-based company MP Gulf of Mexico (MPGoM) which owns offshore fields in the Gulf of Mexico. The intent to sell this stake was initially announced in October 2021. According to the company, potential buyers qualified for this phase will receive a process letter containing detailed information about the company, in addition to instructions on the divestment process, including guidelines for the preparation and submission of non-binding proposals. MPGoM is a joint venture company with an 80 percent stake held by Murphy Exploration & Production Company and 20 percent by Petrobras America Inc., created in October 2018, with the contribution of all oil and natural gas assets in production, located in the Gulf of Mexico, of both companies. The joint venture company holds participation as an operator or a partner in 14 offshore fields in the Gulf of Mexico. Petrobras’ share of the fields’ production in the first half of 2021 was 10,400 bpd of oil equivalent. The seven operated fields are Chinook/Cascade, Dalmatian, Front Runner/Clipper, Thunder Hawk, and Cottonwood. The company holds interests as a partner in Oxy’s Lucius, Kosmos’ Kodiak, Shell’s Habanero, W&T’s Tahoe, Hess’ Northwestern, Fieldwood’s SMI 280, and Chevron’s St. Malo. Petrobras claimed that the sale was in line with its portfolio management strategy and the improved allocation of the company's capital, aiming to maximize value and greater return to society. The Brazilian giant also started two more divestment processes late last year. Following the announcement that the sale of Gulf of Mexico interests was underway, Petrobras started the process for the sale of its entire interest in the Catuá field in the Campos Basin as well as beginning the bidding phase for the sale of the Uruguá and Tambaú fields in the Santos Basin – all three offshore Brazil.
Louisiana officials investigating methane plume seen from space --Louisiana officials are investigating the cause of a massive methane cloud that was spotted on satellite imagery, Bloomberg reported.A large methane plume — the highest concentration of the powerful greenhouse gas spotted by the satellite in the U.S. since October — was detected on Jan. 21. Had the release lasted an hour, it would have produced the same harmful short-term effects as the annual emissions from more than 1,900 cars, Bloomberg noted. Louisiana's Department of Natural Resources is now looking into what could have caused the plume, which likely originated near gas pipelines owned by Energy Transfer LP, Kinder Morgan Inc. and Boardwalk Pipelines LP. None of the companies have claimed responsibility for the gas cloud. According to the U.S. Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety Administration, no reports of a gas release were made in the area. The Biden administration in November announced a series of actions aimed at tackling methane, which is responsible for 10 percent of the nation's contribution to climate change. The methane goals are largely focused on oil and gas sectors, which make up 30 percent of the country’s methane emissions.
EIA expects U.S. petroleum trade to shift toward net imports during 2022 - In 2021, the United States returned to importing more petroleum (which includes crude oil, refined petroleum products, and other liquids) than it exports following its historic shift to being a net exporter of petroleum in 2020. According to our February 2022 Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), we expect net crude oil imports to increase, making the United States a net importer of petroleum in 2022.A country is a net importer if it imports more of a commodity than it exports. Conversely, a country is a net exporter if it exports more of a commodity than it imports. Many factors affect net trade numbers because trade reflects supply and demand conditions both domestically and internationally.Historically, the United States has been a net importer of petroleum. During 2020, COVID-19 mitigation efforts caused a drop in oil demand within the United States and internationally. International petroleum prices decreased in response to less consumption, which diminished incentives for key petroleum-exporting countries to increase production. This shift allowed the United States to export more petroleum in 2020 than it had in the past.Also in 2020, the difference between U.S. crude oil imports and exports fell to its lowest point since at least 1985. Net crude oil imports subsequently rose by 19% in 2021 to an average of 3.2 million barrels per day (b/d) as crude oil consumption increased in response to rising economic activity. We forecast that the United States will continue to import more crude oil than it exports in 2022, reaching an estimated annual average of 3.9 million b/d. However, we expect net imports to fall to 3.4 million b/d in 2023. We expect the United States to import less crude oil than it exports in 2023 because we expect domestic crude oil production will increase to an all-time high of 12.6 million b/d. Since 2010, the United States has exported more refined petroleum products, including distillate fuel oil, hydrocarbon gas liquids, and motor gasoline, among others, than it has imported. Net exports of refined petroleum products grew to 3.3 million b/d in 2020 and remained about the same in 2021. We expect petroleum product net exports will reach new highs of 3.6 million b/d in 2022 and 3.8 million b/d in 2023.
Most Oil Companies Unprofitable or Breaking Even - 2020 represented the costliest year in Chapter 11 bankruptcy filings for oil and gas. 62 percent of oil and gas companies are currently either unprofitable or just breaking even. That’s according to the 2022 BDO Energy CFO Outlook Survey, which noted that 2020 represented the costliest year in Chapter 11 bankruptcy filings for oil and gas, surpassing $100 billion of debt from more than 100 companies. The survey found that, in order to raise capital, oil and gas companies identified the pursuit of investment by a strategic partner as their top choice (48 percent), with the pursuit of private sector equity coming in second place (26 percent), and the pursuit of public equity coming in third (22 percent). Looking at where oil and gas companies plan to increase spending, the 2022 CFO Outlook Survey revealed that ESG will be the prime focus (45 percent), followed by a tie between IT projects (38 percent) and back-office operations (38 percent). According to the survey, 68 percent of oil and gas companies believe implementing an ESG program to improve resiliency and address ESG risks will have a positive impact on the company’s long-term financial performance. The survey also outlined that 46 percent of oil and gas companies are pursuing ESG initiatives to address investor and board demands. “While the past year presented a myriad of challenges for the energy industry, CFOs have a diversified mix of strategies at their disposal to restore consumer and investor confidence, and boost operational resilience,” Clark Sackschewsky, BDO’s national leader of energy and global leader of oil and gas, said in a statement sent to Rigzone. “But on the road ahead, securing sufficient working capital will be key to the success of either endeavor and the lifeline to organizations’ near- and long-term growth,” he added in the statement.
ESG And The Dangerous Structural Increase In The Price Of Oil - The end of oil (and gas and coal) literature we’re inundated with is being written by us in the already developed world, with little regard to the nearly 7 billion people that demand the same access to the same energy that have made us Westerners so rich and long-living. And understandably so, the still developing world is now probably realizing us as even more self-centered and hypocritical than before. Cargoes bound for poor Pakistan were literally changing in mid-route and going to rich UK because the British were willing to pay more. Indeed, the still developing world might not be so quick to focus on decarbonizing as much as we in the West like to think. Real experts argue over whether the world’s oil demand will peak in the 2030s or 2040s, but we all should agree on one thing: when oil use does peak, it won’t plummet but plateau. As economies rebound and oil demand roars back (hardly surprising because the world’s most vital fuel has no significant substitute whatsoever), supplies have struggled to keep up. JPMorgan warns that “oil could ‘easily’ hit $120 if Russia-Ukraine crisis escalates.” Despite rising oil prices, we’re not seeing the investments in new supply that we would’ve seen in previous cycles before the pandemic. For the West’s international oil companies (the “supermajors” like BP, Shell, Chevron, ExxonMobil, etc.), the attack is along all fronts. There has been: 1) a lack of access to financing because of climate concerns, 2) investor demands to decarbonize, and 3) a shortage of sufficient investments in new supply for many years. Thus, crude oil inventories have continued to fall to their lowest levels in many years. For the American consumer, troubled times lay ahead. As my Forbes colleague Dan Eberhart explains, the growing ESG movement means increasing climate pressure to “not invest in new oil production” – a “cart before the horse” energy fantasy bound to devastate. In their investment presentations, the big oil companies are putting “climate, low-carbon, ESG” right up front. The new “moderate growth” mode and limited well inventory suggest that we shouldn’t expect American shale to save the day like it used to.We seem to be entering the stage of “post-shale super growth,” where incremental output from the American oil patch will not be outpacing new global demand. This year, a large part of the higher capital spending in the U.S. oil industry will be just to cover the cost inflation for major inputs, such as for steel, labor, and fuel (renewables are facing the same problems). Further, the low-carbon push and “we don’t need more oil because demand is declining” paradigm has many oil companies switching to investments in renewable power, batteries, hydrogen, carbon capture and storage, etc. For example, the supermajors are dominating in offshore wind, and their deep pockets are putting up barriers for smaller firms who have renewables as their core focus to have a real chance in seabed auctions. And all of this is happening as Western governments, politicians, and environmental groups continue to brag about their foolish end goal: “let’s put our oil companies out of business, that’ll show em!”The constant chant of “oil demand will soon peak” is creating great uncertainty and thereby denying investment approvals from the corporate boards of the big oil companies. Simply put, they’ve become unwilling to sanction multi-billion dollar upstream projects that take many years to bring more oil online and even more to see project payout.In turn, especially as environmental activism seeks to blitz them from energy angle, the easiest path forward for the oil industry is to do exactly what it has been doing: paying out dividends, buying back shares, paying down debt, pursuing non-oil opportunities, and quietly and slightly upping production. Make no mistake, naturally-occurring oil field declines mean that even high investments can still lead to drops in oil production. There is no “standing still” in the oil E&P business, and the Red Queen Effect is especially wrecking for shale because its decline rates are higher and faster.The scare of peak oil demand is setting up the reality of peak oil supply.
U.S. demand for residual fuel oil rose late in 2021 In November 2021, more residual fuel oil was consumed in the United States, measured as product supplied, than during any month since January 2017. Residual fuel oil has several uses, but it is primarily consumed as bunker fuel in the maritime shipping sector. Consumption in December 2021 was at its highest end-of-year level since 2012, according to our Weekly Petroleum Status Report (WPSR).On January 1, 2020, tighter regulations from the International Maritime Organization (IMO) on maritime fuel sulfur specifications became effective. Before 2020, marine fuel could have a sulfur content as high as 3.5%, which is considered high-sulfur fuel oil. The IMO now requires ships to switch to fuels with a 0.5% sulfur content or less, forcing ships to use a more processed, and more expensive, variety of residual fuel oil called very-low-sulfur fuel oil.Ships comply with the IMO specification as long as their actual emissions meet the target sulfur emissions level, regardless of the specification of the fuel they use. Ship owners can install sulfur scrubbers on board to reduce sulfur emissions while still consuming high-sulfur fuel oil and remain compliant. Ship scrubbers are expensive and require ongoing maintenance, but vessels can lower operating costs by purchasing high-sulfur fuel oil instead of higher-priced very-low-sulfur fuel oil or low-sulfur marine gas oil.The IMO regulation applies to global shipping. Marine vessels operating within the North American or U.S. Caribbean Sea Emission Control Areas (ECA) were already required to meet 0.1% sulfur content while operating within those waters.Since spring 2020, overall production of residual fuel oil has decreased because of substantially less refinery production resulting from the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic.High crude oil prices indirectly contribute to higher overall bunker fuel prices, and higher prices give ship owners stronger incentives to install scrubbers to take advantage of the price discount that 3.5% high-sulfur fuel oil has to 0.5% very-low-sulfur fuel oil.The increase in residual fuel oil demand comes with record increases in maritime shipping volumes and rising high-sulfur fuel oil prices in Singapore. The Singapore market is a global benchmark for marine shipping. Since the beginning of November 2021, the Singapore very-low-sulfur fuel oil price premium over high-sulfur fuel oil increased to more than $20 per barrel (b) and neared $30/b throughout December 2021 and January 2022.
U.S. Drilling Activity Maintains Upward Momentum as Haynesville, Permian See Growth -Propelled by activity gains in the Haynesville Shale and Permian Basin, the U.S. rig count posted double-digit growth for a second straight week in the latest tally from oilfield services provider Baker Hughes Co. (BKR). Including increases of six natural gas-directed rigs and four oil-directed units, the combined U.S. count jumped 10 units higher to 645 for the week ended Friday (Feb. 18). That follows a 22-rig surge in the week-earlier period. The 645 active U.S. rigs as of Friday represented a 248-rig year/year increase, according to the BKR numbers, which are partly based on data from Enverus. Land drilling rose by 13 units week/week, partially offset by a four-rig decline in the Gulf of Mexico for the period. One rig was added in inland waters for the week. Horizontal drilling rose by 15 units, partially offset by net declines of three vertical rigs and two directional rigs.The Canadian rig count added one unit to reach 220 for the week, up from 172 in the year-earlier period. Net changes included a gain of three natural gas-directed rigs, partially offset by a decline of two oil-directed rigs.Broken down by major play, the Permian led with a net increase of five rigs week/week, growing its total to 306. The Haynesville added four rigs week/week to end with 58 rigs, up from 46 a year ago. The Denver-Julesburg Niobrara added two rigs, while the Arkoma Woodford, Cana Woodford and Marcellus Shale each added one. The Mississippian Lime and Utica Shale, meanwhile, each dropped one rig from their respective totals.Broken down by state, Texas saw a net gain of eight rigs week/week, with Colorado and New Mexico each adding two rigs. Pennsylvania added one rig to its total, while Louisiana, Ohio and Wyoming each dropped one rig, BKR data show. U.S. petroleum demand continued to march higher in the week-earlier period as production held steady, leaving crude stockpiles far below historic averages, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) said in its latest Weekly Petroleum Status Report earlier in the week. Demand rose 4% week/week to average 22.7 million b/d during the week ended Feb. 11, aided by a 4% jump in jet fuel consumption, the agency said.
Power company blames 'switch' for power outage in Texas City — Texas City’s top emergency manager credits “the good Lord’s providence” with preventing a major explosion at petrochemical plants. Bruce Clawson, Emergency Management Coordinator, made those comments to the Galveston County Daily News on Monday, three days after the massive February 4 power outage that left nearly 20,000 homes and businesses in the dark for four hours.Clawson was unavailable for an interview Tuesday. However, during a text message exchange with KHOU 11, he singled out the skill of workers at petrochemical facilities, which flared, or burned off chemicals, to reduce pressure and make these refineries safe.“It can create some tremendous opportunities for bad explosions,” said Ed Hirs, KHOU 11Energy Expert.Both Hirs and Clawson said refineries have backup generators but not enough to run at full strength.“Just like your building has two backup generators to run the elevators and some of the power supplies and to keep water pumping through the building,” said Hirs. “They don’t have enough generation on-site to power the entire plant. That gets to being too expensive.”Hirs says there are no laws requiring backup generation at these facilities.Initial reports to the Texas Commission on Environmental Quality show the Valero andMarathon plants emitted more than 132,000 pounds of emissions, including nearly 75,000 pounds of sulfur dioxide.“So, one event, one night, produced the same amount of sulfur dioxide, four percent from an entire year,” said Jennifer Hadayia, Executive Director of Air Alliance Houston. According to the Environmental Protection Agency’s web page on sulfur dioxide, or SO2, “Short-term exposures to SO2 can harm the human respiratory system and make breathing difficult. People with asthma, particularly children, are sensitive to these effects of SO2.”
What Europe’s need for natural gas means for Texas | Texas Standard -- For years, some European nations have been reluctant to import natural gas from Texas because of the harmful emissions required to extract it. That’s changed in a hurry though, as the continent now faces a gas shortage.Russell Gold, a writer and senior editor for Texas Monthly, spoke to Texas Standard about the factors behind the new demand and how it could affect communities in Texas. Listen to the interview with Gold in the audio player above or read the transcript below.This interview has been edited lightly for clarity.
U.S. crude oil production forecast to rise in 2022 and 2023 to record-high levels – EIA - In our February 2022 Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), we forecast that crude oil prices will remain high enough to drive U.S. crude oil production to record-high levels in 2023, reaching a forecast 12.6 million barrels per day (b/d). We expect new production in the Permian Basin to drive overall U.S. crude oil production growth.In the February STEO, we forecast that U.S. crude oil production will increase to 12.0 million b/d in 2022, up 760,000 b/d from 2021. We forecast that crude oil production in the United States will rise by 630,000 b/d in 2023 to average 12.6 million b/d. We expect more than 80% of that crude oil production growth to come from the Lower 48 states (L48), which does not include production from Alaska and the Federal Offshore Gulf of Mexico.Production from new L48 wells, particularly in the Permian region, drive our forecast of U.S. crude oil production growth. Legacy production, or crude oil production from existing wells, typically declines relatively quickly in tight oil formations, and we expect that production from new wells will offset these legacy production declines.Crude oil prices have generally increased since April 2020, resulting in increased crude oil production. The Brent spot price for crude oil (the international benchmark) reached $97 per barrel (b) on February 7, 2022, the highest nominal price (not adjusted for inflation) since September 17, 2014. From January 8, 2021, to February 7, 2022, the L48 added 220 oil-directed rigs, 114 of which were in the Permian region. We forecast that production in the Permian region will average 5.3 million b/d in 2022 and 5.7 million b/d in 2023.
U.S. oil production won't reach pre-Covid high until 2023, analyst says — Even as crude prices hurtle toward $100 a barrel, U.S. oil output won’t be able to reach its pre-pandemic high until later next year as inflation and production logjams present obstacles to the industry’s recovery. That’s according to Elisabeth Murphy, an analyst at industry consultant ESAI. While Murphy estimates that the U.S. is set to add 900,000 barrels a day of supply this year, she pointed to rising costs and issues with drilling as factors that are holding back more growth. New drilling isn’t keeping up with number of well completions, the final step before oil begins flowing. Keeping a good log of newly drilled wells is necessary to maintain and grow production, Murphy said during a webinar. Service-sector price inflation is also an issue, and one that could restrain production growth, she said, noting that the cost of sand for fracking purposes has tripled in the Permian basin, the world’s most prolific oil patch. Other factors that could slow supply recovery include more regulations such as methane rules, rising royalty rates and further industry consolidation, she said. Crude prices have surged 40% since early December to more than $90 a barrel. Many producers have been eager to take advantage of the rally, with U.S. drillers adding the most rigs in four years last week. This week, the U.S. government reported that the Permian reached record volumes of oil supply for three consecutive months. But even with that expansion, global crude supplies aren’t keeping up with robust demand amid some production limitations.
Houston biotech startup will use microbes to make hydrogen from oil — Houston biotech startup Cemvita Factory is partnering with U.S. gas-equipment manufacturer Chart Industries Inc. to use oil-eating microbes to make hydrogen. The venture, which also includes engineering and consulting firm EXP and the Center for Houston’s Future, plans to deploy the microbes into depleted oil reservoirs that are ready to be plugged and abandoned, the companies said Thursday in an emailed statement. The technology would extend the life of the low-value wells and create a new revenue stream from so-called “gold hydrogen,” which is produced biologically and emissions-free underground. Using both natural and genetically engineered microbes that require some supplemental nutrients, a well can make more than 3 kilograms (6.6 pounds) of hydrogen for each barrel of oil consumed as feedstock, Cemvita Chief Executive Officer Moji Karimi said in an interview. The technology can make hydrogen for less than $1 per kilogram, the companies said. By comparison, emissions-free hydrogen made by a process known as wind-based water electrolysis costs between $4 to $6 per kilogram, according to figures compiled by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory. When burned, hydrogen only releases water vapor as a waste product, making it a prized fuel in the global transition to cleaner energy, but the cost of large-scale, emissions-free production remains a challenge.
Cash Waha Hub falls as Permian gas production climbs to new record high | S&P Global Platts - Permian gas production soared to a new record high Feb. 18, which, combined with a forecast for warmer temperatures in West Texas, weighed down cash Waha Hub and other regional spot prices in Feb. 18 spot trading for Feb. 19-22 flows. Cash Waha Hub fell 22 cents to $3.96/MMBtu on Feb. 18, widening its basis to cash Henry Hub to 64 cents, preliminary Platts settlement data shows. Similarly, cash Transwestern, Permian Basin fell 26.50 cents to $3.875/MMBtu. Waha Hub has seen its spread widen as Permian production climbed above the 14 Bcf/d mark, averaging a 55-cent discount Feb. 10-17, compared to a 32-cent discount for the prior 30 days. Gas production in the Permian reached 14.34 Bcf on Feb. 18, the highest level recorded in data going back to 2012, according to S&P Global Platts Analytics. Daily gas production has come in above 14 Bcf/d for Feb. 10-18, putting this February on the path to be the strongest month for Permian gas production on record. Prior to this month, daily Permian production had risen above the 14 Bcf/d mark just four times. The stronger production has been supported by the basin's growing rig count, which reached 308 for the week ended Feb. 16, data from Enverus shows. This is three rigs higher than the previous week and 50% higher than the same week a year ago when the basin had 205 rigs in operation. The National Weather Service forecast that temperatures in West Texas would warm up over the next several days, alleviating the risk of additional production freeze-offs and lowering local gas demand. Midland, Texas, was expected to see its daily low temperature rise into the 40s Fahrenheit Feb. 19-22 from 32 F Feb. 18. Daily highs were also forecast to warm, climbing out of the 50s F Feb. 18 and into the 60s and 70s F Feb. 19-22. While West Texas was set to see temperatures thaw slightly, daily low temperatures in New Mexico were expected to remain below or near-freezing in the near-term. This temperature divergence showed up in Feb. 18 cash pricing, with Transwestern, San Juan and El Paso, San Juan seeing much smaller losses on the day than Waha Hub and El Paso, Permian. Waha Hub's futures contracts were trading slightly lower on the Intercontinental Exchange on Feb. 18, suggesting that the market may be factoring in the impact of stronger production on local supply and demand dynamics. Waha's March contract was trading around 4 cents lower at a 58.81 cent discount to Henry Hub, while the April contract fell 3 cents to trade at a 68 cent discount.
Permian Production Called ‘Indisputable Driver’ of U.S. NGL Growth - U.S. natural gas liquids (NGL) production, particularly from the Permian Basin, hit record levels near the end of last year, propelling hydrocarbon liquid totals to almost pre-pandemic numbers. According to research by Rystad Energy, domestic NGL output soared to 5.84 million b/d in November, mostly from improving ethane recovery and Gulf Coast supplies rebounding following recovery from Hurricane Ida. Total U.S. NGL output climbed above 17.3 million b/d in November, one of the highest points since early 2020. It was a 60,000 b/d sequential increase and the third monthly record in a row. NGL production from the Permian helped lead the surge, according to Rystad’s Artem Abramov, head of Shale Research. He called the Permian the “indisputable driver” of output during the record-setting spike. The 10% growth in NGL output from the Permian, which extends across West Texas and southeastern New Mexico, through the second half of 2021 helped boost the gains from crude oil and condensate across the country during the same time period, Abramov said. Before the pandemic, the Permian accounted for about 30% of U.S. oil output and 14% of domestic natural gas production in 2020, according to the Energy Information Administration data.During November, NGL production from the Permian hit a record 3.3 million b/d, with the rest of the country making up only 2.5 million b/d of output. The Permian also led in oil production and growth of natural gas output during the same period, though Appalachia still led the total for natural gas at 34.903 Bcf/d. The Permian also led in drawing down the backlog for drilled but uncompleted (DUC) wells from October to November with 105 units, coming down to 1,564 wells. The combined drawdown for all seven regions was 226 wells. One of the nation’s top pipeline operators, Enterprise Products Partners LP, recently announced a $3.25 billion investment in the Permian Midland sub-basin with the acquisition of Navitas Midstream Partners LLC to add more NGLs to its system. Rystad analysis showed other major U.S. onshore basins also are gaining traction toward pre-pandemic levels of all hydrocarbon liquids but were still underperforming by an average of 13% from 1Q2020. Output from the Eagle Ford and Bakken shale formations, and the Anadarko Basin and Niobrara formation, remained relatively flat in November month/month. The natural gas-rich Appalachia Basin and the Haynesville Shale saw their NGL output decline four months in a row, slipping from a total production of 861,000 b/d in August to 856,000 b/d in November. The increase in ethane recovery during the spike in NGL production accounted for most of the added output, and helped keep most of the major gas regions, excluding the Permian, from recording declining numbers.
Marathon Oil chooses cash returns over oil production ramp-up — Marathon Oil Corp. said oil and natural gas production won’t increase this year as it concentrates on pouring cash into dividends and share buybacks. The shale giant announced plans to spend $1.2 billion on capital projects this year, in line with analysts’ expectations for a 20% increase from the 2021 level, according to a statement on Wednesday. The company forecasts generating more than $3 billion of free cash flow, exceeding estimates by half a billion dollars. Marathon said it expects to exceed its commitment to return a minimum of 40% of cash from operations to investors, assuming oil prices average around $60 a barrel or higher. Per-share adjusted earnings of 77 cents exceeded the average estimate by 22 cents. The company pledged to continue buying back shares after repurchasing $1 billion since October, reducing share count by 8%. The promise comes three weeks after Marathon increased its quarterly dividend by 17%.
Shale giants swear they won't drill more, even at $200 a barrel — The Texas wildcatters that ushered in America’s shale revolution are resisting the temptation to pump more oil as the market rallies, signaling higher gasoline prices for consumers already battered by the worst inflation in a generation. Crude prices hurtling toward $100 a barrel typically would spark a frenzy of new drilling by independent explorers in shale fields from the desert Southwest to the Upper Great Plains -- but not this year. Influential players like Pioneer Natural Resources Co., Devon Energy Corp. and Harold Hamm’s Continental Resources Inc. just pledged to limit 2022 production increases to no more than 5%, a fraction of the 20% or higher annual growth rates meted out in the pre-pandemic era. The timing couldn’t be worse for consumers. Outside of OPEC, which has rejected U.S. President Joe Biden’s pleas to accelerate production increases, domestic shale fields are the only other source of crude that can quickly respond to supply shortfalls. Together with fast-rising global consumption, American drillers’ conservatism is likely to keep oil prices elevated for some time to come. “Whether it’s $150 oil, $200 oil, or $100 oil, we’re not going to change our growth plans,’’ Pioneer Chief Executive Officer Scott Sheffield said during a Bloomberg Television interview. “If the president wants us to grow, I just don’t think the industry can grow anyway.’’ To be sure, U.S. oil output will rise substantially this year and is forecast to return to pre-pandemic levels by 2023. But it probably won’t be enough to knock oil prices off their upward trajectory any time soon. Publicly-listed independent explorers like Pioneer and Devon account for more than half of the roughly 10.5 million barrels that America produces daily from fields in the contiguous 48 states, according to IHS Markit Ltd. The rest comes from closely held outfits, family-run enterprises and the international supermajors, all of which are aggressively boosting output. Exxon Mobil Corp. and Chevron Corp., for example, are targeting 25% and 10% shale growth, respectively, this year. At the same time, closely-held entities bankrolled by private-equity firms and family funds now control the majority of the country’s active drilling rigs.
Texas Got Double the Earthquakes in 2021 - An analysis published by the Texas Tribune on Tuesday finds that earthquakes of more than a 3.0 magnitude in Texas more than doubled last year, shooting up from 98 in 2020 to 209 in 2021. It’s not a sudden natural change causing all these new quakes. Both regulators and scientists say that increased fracking and wastewater disposal from the oil and gas industry is likely to blame.Earthquakes are not a direct result of fracking itself, but rather come from the ways oil producers dispose of the wastewater that is a byproduct of the drilling process. Much of the water that is injected underground to frack oil from the shale formations comes back up with that oil, along with a slew of chemicals, salts, and radioactive materials it accumulated underground—between three to six barrels of wastewater comes up with each barrel of oil.The most common and cheapest way to dispose of this wastewater seems logical: why not just pump it back underground? But water added back underground can shake up dormant faults in rock formations, transforming Texas, which before the fracking boom in 2008 saw just a couple of perceptible earthquakes per year, into an earth-shaking hotspot.“The cumulative volumes [of water] increase the pressure, and that is the force that triggers the fault to slip,” Alexandros Savvaidis, a research scientist at the Bureau of Economic Geology at UT-Austin, told the Tribune.And there’s way more wastewater in the Permian Basin than there used to be. According to energy analysts Rystad Energy, which provided the Tribune with figures, the amount of wastewater generated in the Permian Basin sat at 217 billion gallons in 2021, up from 54 billion gallons in 2011.More intense earthquakes are also increasing. Texas saw zero 4.0 earthquakes in 2017, but experienced nine between 2018 and 2020. In 2021 alone, that number shot up to 15. While 4.0 earthquakes are still considered “light,” they can begin to rattle buildings and possibly do damage. The increase in earthquakes is so great that it’s even getting the attention of Texas’s famously industry-friendly regulators. The Texas Railroad Commission (RRC), which is known for being light on regulation and for going to bat for the oil and gas industry, said in September it would stop issuing new injection permits in Midland County after four earthquakes above a 3.0 hit within the span of a week. In December, the RRC suspended 33 injection permits in the Midland area and began monitoring another area of concern in late January.
Chemists discover a range of environmental contaminants in fracking wastewater - As companies that drill for oil and natural gas using hydraulic fracturing consider recycling and reusing wastewater that surfaces from wells during the fracking process, chemists at The University of Toledo discovered that the new and unexplored waste contains many environmental contaminants including organic chemicals and metallic elements. Research scientists at UToledo's Dr. Nina McClelland Laboratory for Water Chemistry and Environmental Analysis in collaboration with the University of Texas Arlington achieved a comprehensive characterization of the chemical composition of produced water samples extracted in Texas, indicating the presence of toxic and carcinogenic contaminants in untreated samples, which can pose a threat to wildlife and human health. Unraveling the complex composition of produced water by specialized extraction methodologies, the results published in Environmental Science and Technology provide critical information that can help regulatory agencies fine-tune proposed guidelines related to the safe treatment and disposal of fracking wastewater to protect drinking water sources. "The discovery of these chemicals in produced water suggests that greater monitoring and remediation efforts are needed since many of them are listed to be dangerous for human health by the World Health Organization," said Dr. Emanuela Gionfriddo, assistant professor of analytical chemistry in the UToledo Department of Chemistry and Biochemistry, and the School of Green Chemistry and Engineering. "Our comprehensive characterization sheds insight into the processes taking place during hydraulic fracturing and the nature of the geologic formation of each well site." Drilling operations are often performed by injecting treated water into the subsurface that contains various publicly undisclosed additives to assist in the drilling process. The injected water mixes with groundwater and then resurfaces as waste byproduct containing contaminants both from the drilling site and the additives used. The chemists used an approach developed by Gionfriddo's research team in 2020 called thin-film, solid-phase microextraction to extract organic solubles from eight produced water samples from the Permian Basin and Eagle Ford formation in Texas. Analysis found a total of 266 different dissolved organic compounds, including a pesticide called atrazine; 1,4-dioxane, an organic compound that is irritating to the eyes and respiratory tract; pyridine, a chemical that may damage the liver; and polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs), which have been linked to skin, lung, bladder, liver and stomach cancers. Using a new polymer developed in 2021 at UToledo, the team also confirmed the presence of 29 elements, including rare earth elements, selenium and hazardous metals such as chromium, cadmium, lead and uranium. The researchers also suggest the technology used for their comprehensive analysis of produced water is essential for proper reuse or disposal by oil and gas producers. "We found a way to use more accessible instrumentation in the analysis of such complex samples compared to more expensive workflows involving high-resolution mass spectrometry," said Dr. Jon Kirchhoff, Distinguished University Professor and chair of the UToledo Department of Chemistry and Biochemistry.
$100 Oil Could Trigger Burst In Shale Oil Production - Up to 2.2 million barrels per day (bpd) of US tight oil could be unleashed in the event of a supercycle – with oil prices remaining around or above $100 per barrel – driven by growing demand and continued supply tightness, Rystad Energy predicts. Tight oil output in the core producing regions of the US – the Permian, Eagle Ford, Niobrara, Bakken and Anadarko – in the fourth quarter of 2021 was around 7.7 million bpd, continuing an upward trend but short of the pre-pandemic levels. Production in these regions is expected to surpass the 2019 high of 8.1 million bpd by the second quarter of this year and expand further if a supercycle materializes. If oil prices reach and remain around $100 per barrel, total production from these core regions would hit 9.9 million bpd by the fourth quarter of 2023, marking a 2.2 million bpd surge from the same quarter in 2021. High oil prices are encouraging operators to increase production as supply from sources outside the US remains tight. Global Covid-19 concerns are waning and countries are removing or relaxing restrictions, causing a surge in demand for oil that the current supply would struggle to meet. In addition, geopolitical uncertainty in major exporting countries is worsening, threatening to disrupt trade flows amid already limited availability. Total unconventional output – including oil, gas and natural gas liquids (NGL) – from these core US oil regions has already returned to pre-Covid-19 levels, totaling around 15.6 million boepd in the fourth quarter of 2021. Total output is expected to keep climbing and reach an all-time high of more than 16 million boepd by the end of March this year. “Although high prices would, in theory, trigger a burst in tight oil production, acute supply chain bottlenecks, a lag between price signals and its impact on production, and winter weather-related disruptions will slow growth. Added to this are expectations that spot sand prices will rise to a $50-$70 per ton range – a level unheard of in the industry’s modern history – which will hit operators’ wallets,” says Artem Abramov, Rystad Energy’s head of shale research.
As oil prices soar, U.S. drillers scramble to find sand for fracking - With crude prices at their highest levels in years, U.S. oil drillers are trying to boost output fast, but their efforts have been hit by a shortage of sand to use for fracking operations. Crude output is expected to hit records in parts of Texas and New Mexico, the heart of U.S. shale activity. Sand supplies are so tight that it is slowing the pace of work for some oil drillers, and higher costs for sand are eating into the bottom line for others. But demand is still heavy as drillers look to cash in on crude prices that this week touched $95/bbl, the highest in roughly seven years. Crude slid about 4% from those peaks on Feb. 15 but remained well above $90/bbl. “We can’t get enough sand. We’re running less than the number of [fracking] stages we could pump in a day because we’ve run out of sand every day,” said Michael Oestmann, CEO of private equity-backed Tall City Exploration, which operates in the Permian Basin of West Texas, the largest U.S. shale region. “Ultimately it will slow everyone down if it doesn’t resolve itself.” Once overbuilt and oversupplied, the sand markets have been turned upside down. Consultancy Rystad estimates that spot prices are between $50 and $70 a ton—a giant leap from prices in early teens at the start of the pandemic and sharply above last year’s levels of $20 to $25 per ton. Rystad Researcher Artem Abramov called current prices for frack sand “unheard of in the industry's modern history.” Tight supplies will probably push sand prices even higher, Abramov said. He estimates that one to two in-basin sand mines have been idled at any given time since December. U.S. shale production is expected to rise by 109,000 bbl/d in March, to 8.7 million bbl/d, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration. The Permian Basin is expected to see output rise to 5.2 million bbl/d in March, which would be a record, and there are now 301 oil rigs operating in that basin, the most since April 2020. U.S. frackers added three crews in the first week of February, boosting the total to 264 from roughly 167 this time last year, according to consultancy Primary Vision. The sand market is so tight Oestmann said, because fewer people have been working in the mines and there has been a shortage of truck drivers. He said his company is looking to bring sand in by rail, a sourcing method that fell out of fashion following the advent of local mines a few years ago. “The railed sand depots were busy,” said Richard Spears, vice president of oilfield consultancy Spears & Associates, of a recent trip to West Texas. “When that source is kicking in at high volume, and the local mine is full out, you know you’ve got a challenge.”
U.S. Shale Production Hindered By Sand Supply Crunch - U.S. shale producers are tempted to boost production more than previously expected as oil prices rallied to over $90 a barrel with a potential to hit $100 soon. Yet, a supply chain bottleneck for a key material for fracking could slow the coming shale boom.Frac sand in the biggest shale play, the Permian, is in short supply, threatening to slow drilling programs at some producers and sending sand prices skyrocketing. This adds further cost pressure to American oil producers, who are already grappling with cost inflation in equipment and labor shortages.Total U.S. crude oil production is set to rise to an average of 12.0 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2022 and 12.6 million bpd in 2023—an annual record high and 200,000 bpd above last month’s estimate, the EIA said in its February Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) last week. The previous annual average record of 12.3 million bpd was set in the pre-pandemic 2019. Crude oil production in the seven most prolific U.S. shale basins is set to increase to 8.707 million bpd in March—a 109,000 bpd rise over February’s 8.598 million bpd, and an increase of 271,000 bpd from January’s tally, the EIA’s latest Drilling Productivity Report showed. However, cost pressures and sand shortages could slow the growth going forward. Not enough frac sand at a time when oil prices topped $90 a barrel could limit the growth as more and more shale firms – especially privately-held ones – seek to boost production materially to capture the high oil prices. $100 oil could unleash a lot more U.S. oil production, in theory, but supply chain constraints and record-high sand prices are likely to temper growth, analysts say. “Although high prices would, in theory, trigger a burst in tight oil production, acute supply chain bottlenecks, a lag between price signals and its impact on production, and winter weather-related disruptions will slow growth. Added to this are expectations that spot sand prices will rise to a $50-$70 per ton range – a level unheard of in the industry’s modern history – which will hit operators’ wallets,” Artem Abramov, Rystad Energy’s head of shale research, said earlier this weekSand tightness, cost pressures, and labor shortages could be deterrents to a massive outburst in U.S. shale production, even if most public companies were to abandon restraint and risk angering Wall Street by seeking to significantly raise output.Oilfield services firms, while hailing the coming of a “multi-year upcycle” in shale, are warning against sand tightness and labor and cost pressures.“There is no doubt, the much-anticipated multiyear upcycle is now underway,” Jeff Miller, CEO at the biggest fracking services provider, Halliburton, said on the Q4 earnings call last month. But he also noted that “As activity accelerates, the market is seeing tightness related to trucking, labor, sand, and other inputs.”During the fourth quarter, Halliburton saw the North American market moderate growth slightly in completions due to the holidays, sand supply tightness, and lower-efficiency levels typically experienced in the winter months, Miller said.
An FTI Consulting Presentation Pulls Back the Veil on Fossil Fuel PR and Shale Greenwashing - “We understand how the oil and gas sector works — we’ve worked in it, studied it, defended it and impacted the policy that regulates it,” a 2015 presentation delivered to the Tennessee Oil and Gas Association begins. “We have been instrumental players in the industry’s highest profile business issues, regulatory hearings, legal disputes and arbitration.”Those bona fides came not from an oil and gas company or investor, but from FTI Consulting, a sprawling consulting firm that markets its strategic communications services to a wide range of industries — including coal, oil, and gas producers.FTI’s 2015 presentation, obtained by DeSmog, offers a rare glimpse at what PR firms offer to fossil fuel companies and how they work their messaging and strategies into news articles and headlines. It comes at a time when the PR industry has been wrestling with its role in the climate crisis. In January, the Clean Creatives campaign, which represents PR professionals concerned about their industry’s role in promoting fossil fuels, released a letter signed by 450 scientists. Itcalls on PR firms to drop fossil fuel clients and stop spreading what the letter described as“advertising and PR efforts by fossil fuel companies that seek to obfuscate or downplay our data and the risks posed by the climate crisis.”FTI’s claim in the 2015 presentation to have been instrumental for the oil industry isn’t bluster. In November 2020, a New York Times investigation found that “FTI has been involved in the operations of at least 15 current and past influence campaigns promoting fossil-fuel interests in addition to its direct work for oil and gas clients.”This is reflected in the 2015 presentation, in which FTI touted its connections to dozens of fossil fuel and chemical companies, including Shell, Halliburton, and Range Resources, and lists groups like the Marcellus Shale Coalition, the Shale Resource Centre Canada, and the Center for Liquified Natural Gas under the heading “redefining communications support.” The presentation focuses on what is perhaps FTI’s best-known project for the fossil fuel industry: Energy In Depth, a project that’s served as a “rapid response platform” for the shale industry.Outside experts called the presentation revealing.“PR firms — I guess FTI Consulting is also strategic management — they don’t want to ever be seen officially to be very overtly trying to control the conversation,” Melissa Aronczyk, a professor of journalism and media studies at Rutgers University, told DeSmog. “They want to be able to say, ‘no, no, we’re just producing our facts, we’re just producing our evidence and using the statistics that are out there.’” “And so this is pretty damning,” she added.
Judge: Oil and gas leases offered without weighing sage-grouse impacts | Western Colorado - A federal judge has ruled that the Bureau of Land Management illegally failed to consider the impacts to the imperiled Gunnison sage-grouse before leasing acreage for oil and gas development in southwestern Colorado. Senior Judge John Kane with the U.S. District Court of Colorado issued his findings this week in rulings in lawsuits brought by conservation groups and the San Miguel County Board of Commissioners in connection with two lease sales. At issue were 1,400 acres leased in 2018 and 9,241 acres leased in 2017. Much of the acreage leased in the sales is in San Miguel County, home to the second-largest population of Gunnison sage-grouse, which is protected under the Endangered Species Act as a threatened species. The BLM relied on environmental analysis in the resource management plan for its Tres Rios Field Office in proceeding with the lease sales, but Kane ruled that it should have done more analysis at the leasing stage in order to comply with the Endangered Species Act and National Environmental Policy Act. He said that new information was available that allowed the BLM to consider additional impacts not previously considered, based on factors such as the specific lease sizes and locations, including their positions relative to Gunnison sage-grouse habitat and existing leases. The BLM also reviews oil and gas proposals when companies apply for drilling permits, and had said it would have more specifics to consider at that stage, “but I conclude that the BLM had new information at the leasing stage that revived its duties” under the Endangered Species Act, Kane said in his ruling. He said the agency was obligated to consult with the Fish and Wildlife Service on the lease proposals and their potential impacts on Gunnison sage-grouse. The plaintiffs in the case want Kane to vacate the BLM decisions authorizing the lease sales and declare the leases void now that he has found the agency violated the law, but he will first consider briefs from plaintiffs and the government on the issue. Megan Mueller, senior conservation biologist with Rocky Mountain Wild, one of the plaintiffs, said she thinks Kane will vacate BLM’s actions, but that otherwise it will have to do more environmental analysis consistent with his rulings. A BLM spokesman contacted Friday provided no comment on Kane’s rulings.
State Supreme Court weighs release of disputed DAPL documents; 2 related cases before high court --The North Dakota Supreme Court is weighing whether to further delay the public release of about 16,000 documents relating to construction security for the Dakota Access Pipeline. Justices also will be deciding in a separate but related case before the high court whether to give pipeline developer Energy Transfer a second avenue to try to block the records from the public. The court already has temporarily stopped any disclosure, and justices are now deciding whether to continue that order while Energy Transfer appeals a state district judge's determination that the documents are open records under North Dakota law. The temporary Supreme Court order means that the 62,000 pages of documents deemed by the judge late last year to be public will remain off limits for now to anyone, including several news organizations that have requested them. The Intercept, a nonprofit online news outlet, sued in November 2020 to get access to the documents to continue investigative journalism on the extensive and sometimes violent pipeline protests in southern North Dakota in 2016-17. The convoluted nature of the dispute that has dragged on more than a year was on display during a Supreme Court hearing this week, with Justice Daniel Crothers asking an attorney if two appeals are necessary, and Justice Lisa Fair McEvers inquiring of another lawyer: "This is not a usual case of an open records request, is it?" The 16,000 documents are being held by the North Dakota Private Investigation and Security Board, which obtained them during an administrative case involving the operations of TigerSwan, the North Carolina company that Energy Transfer hired to oversee security during pipeline construction. South Central District Judge Cynthia Feland in late December ruled that the documents are public and subject to the state's open records law. And last month she refused to delay their release while Energy Transfer attorneys appeal her December ruling. That meant the documents were available to the public, including the media. But Energy Transfer appealed to the Supreme Court before anyone could obtain them. The company maintains the documents should remain private because they're “privileged, confidential and proprietary" -- something Feland concluded company attorneys hadn't backed up with specific evidence. Energy Transfer late last month asked the Supreme Court to put Feland's order on hold while its appeal plays out, arguing that "Once ... (the) documents are disclosed to the public, that disclosure can not be undone." The court on Feb. 2 granted the request "until further order" and put a Feb. 7 deadline on written responses.
Bakken oil play now branded 'mature' as industry appetites shrink in North Dakota - — A consensus is forming among North Dakota’s top oil industry operators: the formation that drove the state’s fracking boom has entered its middle age. “The Bakken has been rebranded — whether we want it to be or not — as mature,” said Lynn Helms, director of the North Dakota Oil and Gas Division, Monday, Feb. 14, recounting a key takeaway from conversations with some of the state's biggest oil producers at a recent industry conference in Houston. While many oil producers still view the Bakken as "a cash cow," Helms said they aren't reinvesting resources in the formation like they once did, focusing instead on Texas and New Mexico. Among the reasons driving the Bakken’s shifting reputation, Helms cited a surge in attention among oil industry operators on their carbon footprints, as well as some concerns about the viability of industry technology that could be needed to sustain high output from North Dakota wells as they get older. North Dakota’s oil output dropped by about 2% in the month of December, according to industry data released on Monday, and sits at 1.14 million barrels per day. Production has hovered around that number for the better part of the last year, as North Dakota has struggled to return to its prepandemic high of 1.52 million barrels per day in November of 2019. If the industry's approach to North Dakota holds, Helms said the state should expect to see flat or slight production growth over the next decade or so, after which output would slowly trail off as the industry continues to pump oil from its existing inventory of wells. A common goal to eradicate natural gas flaring is an “enormous” factor in the shifting mindset toward the Bakken, Helms said. The process of burning off excess natural gas that comes up from oil wells, flaring releases planet-warming carbon dioxide emissions. With financiers increasingly factoring climate consequences into their investments, achieving a gas capture level near 100% has become “goal number one" for many oil producers, Helms said, even more than expanding output. Oil producers in North Dakota captured 93% of their natural gas output in December, clearing the state’s regulatory standard but falling well below the average levels found in oil plays like the Permian in New Mexico and Texas, which have more infrastructure to capture and transport gas. Flaring was particularly high this December on private lands on the Fort Berthold Indian Reservation, where just 46% of natural gas was captured. “Four years ago, visiting these same people, everyone was pounding the table, wanting” more lax flaring regulations so they could produce more oil, Helms said of the Houston visit. “In four short years that has made a complete 180.”
Enbridge misses Minnesota hiring goals for Line 3, exceeds promised spending with Indigenous firms - Enbridge fell short of its Minnesota hiring goals for its new Line 3 oil pipeline, but the Canadian company exceeded its target for spending on tribal-owned businesses. That's the bottom line of an Enbridge report filed Monday with state utility regulators, chronicling some economic impacts of the controversial pipeline, which was completed four months ago. Enbridge anticipated that at least half of the construction jobs for new Line 3 would be filled through "local union halls," according to filings with the Minnesota Public Utilities Commission. The other half would be union workers directly hired by Enbridge's contractors. Of the 12,155 workers hired to build the pipeline during the project's duration, 37% were Minnesota residents. Another 10% were from the Dakotas, Wisconsin or Iowa. (Peak daily employment on Line 3 was 5,500 workers in February 2021.) Looking at it another way: Minnesota residents put in 32% of the 10.8 million work hours on the project, while workers from the four adjoining states contributed 9%. At least two key Minnesota union locals on the Line 3 project have members in Wisconsin and the Dakotas. The U.S. portion of the new pipeline cost Enbridge over $4 billion — most of which was spent on a 340-mile stretch across northern Minnesota. Much smaller sections of new pipe are in North Dakota and Wisconsin. The pipeline, which ferries heavy Canadian crude to Superior, Wis., was one of the largest construction projects in recent Minnesota history. Pranis said that from the Laborers union's perspective, Enbridge essentially met its local hiring goals. Three Minnesota-based Laborers union locals supplied workers for the Line 3 project; one of those also has jurisdiction in northwestern Wisconsin, the other in North Dakota. Over 50% of the laborers on Line 3 were from the three locals — meeting the goals of the union contracts with Enbridge, Pranis said.
Flint Hills' Pine Bend refinery produces more fuel with less pollution - You no longer smell the huge refinery in Rosemount before you see it. Since Minnesota regulators fined Pine Bend $6.9 million in 1998 for spills and oil leaks into the nearby Mississippi River, Flint Hills has invested about $2 billion in emission control and efficiency technology, as well as restoring 1,600 acres of the Pine Bend Bluffs nature preserve along the Mississippi River. The huge facility has lowered emissions of traditional pollutants by about 70% as it increases production of diesel, gasoline, jet fuel, asphalt and other petroleum-based products. In 2021, it also received the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's Energy Star certification as a top-quartile performer among refineries for energy efficiency. Still, Pine Bend remains among Minnesota's Big 10 emitters of greenhouse gases (GHG), the driver of climate change that results in increasing numbers of environmental disasters that also are economically devastating nationally. Minnesota Pollution Control Agency (MPCA) statistics reveal that Pine Bend's greenhouse emissions grew 9% between 2012 and 2020. However, the emissions declined nearly 6% since 2010 on a per million-barrels-of-product basis. Pine Bend production rose 20.6% from 2010 to 2021, or 316,000 barrels per day of product.
Are oil majors greenwashing? What 12 years of data show - There is a “mismatch” between the public statements of four of the world’s largest oil and gas companies and their actions and investments on clean energy, according to new research that analyzed 12 years of data. The study,, published yesterday in the journal PLOS One, focused on Chevron Corp., Exxon Mobil Corp., BP PLC and Shell PLC. Those companies are responsible for more than 10 percent of global carbon emissions since 1965, the study noted. Using data collected between 2009 and 2020, researchers from Kyoto University and Tohoku University said none of the four majors have entered the renewables market at a scale “that would indicate a shift away from fossil fuels” and that the business models of each company are still dependent on fossil fuels. The authors called for more transparency around each company’s definition of words such as “low-carbon,” “clean energy” and “renewables” and said that until the areas of discourse, actions and investment are “brought into alignment, we conclude that accusations of greenwashing by oil majors are well-founded.” “Mitigating further dangerous warming requires these majors to urgently transform their fossil-fuel-based business models rather than merely increase discourse and pledges,” they said. The study used three categories, or “perspectives,” to assess the companies’ clean energy transition activity, including “discourse,” or keywords used in annual reports, investments, and pledges and actions. The authors said the number of mentions of words like “transition,” “low-carbon energy,” and “climate change” increased in annual reports over the research period, particularly for Shell and BP. California-based Chevron is the “only major not showing a noticeable increase,” the study said, with the word “climate” missing from annual reports in 2009 to 2011. But while there’s been a rise in keywords used, the study concluded that “American majors continuously exhibit defensive attitudes to renewables investment” and a need to move away from fossil fuels. The study also noted that “fluctuations notwithstanding, relative spending trends indicate that upstream exploration and production of oil and gas remain the pillar business for all majors, especially the American majors.” The research comes as oil and gas companies are facing heightened pressure from investors to meaningfully address climate change and as Democrats on Capitol Hill have criticized the companies for making “empty promises” when it comes to their greenhouse gas emissions commitments (Climatewire, Feb. 9)
Oil firms’ climate claims are greenwashing, study concludes -- Accusations of greenwashing against major oil companies that claim to be in transition to clean energy are well-founded, according to the most comprehensive study to date. The research, published in a peer-reviewed scientific journal, examined the records of ExxonMobil, Chevron, Shell and BP, which together are responsible for more than 10% of global carbon emissions since 1965. The researchers analysed data over the 12 years up to 2020 and concluded the company claims do not align with their actions, which include increasing rather than decreasing exploration.The study found a sharp rise in mentions of “climate”, “low-carbon” and “transition” in annual reports in recent years, especially for Shell and BP, and increasing pledges of action in strategies. But concrete actions were rare and the researchers said: “Financial analysis reveals a continuing business model dependence on fossil fuels along with insignificant and opaque spending on clean energy.”Numerous previous studies have shown there are already more reserves of oil and gas and more planned production than could be burned while keeping below the internationally agreed temperature target of 1.5C. In May 2021, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said there can be no new fossil fuel developments if the world is to reach net zero by 2050. Oil companies are under increasing pressure from investors to align their businesses with climate targets. But their plans have faced scepticism, prompting the researchers to conduct the new research, which they said was objective and comprehensive. “Until there is very concrete progress, we have every reason to be very sceptical about claims to be moving in a green direction,” said Prof Gregory Trencher, at Kyoto University in Japan, who worked with Mei Li and Jusen Asuka at Tohoku University.“If they were moving away from fossil fuels we would expect to see, for example, declines in exploration activity, fossil fuel production, and sales and profit from fossil fuels,” he said. “But if anything, we find evidence of the reverse happening.”“Recent pledges look very nice and they’re getting a lot of people excited, but we have to put these in the context of company history of actions,” Trencher said. “It’s like a very naughty schoolboy telling the teacher ‘I promise to do all my homework next week’, but the student has never worked hard.”The new study, published in the journal PLOS One, found mentions of climate-related keywords in annual reports rose sharply from 2009 to 2020. For example, BP’s use of “climate change” went from 22 to 326 mentions. But in terms of strategy and actions, the researchers found “the companies are pledging a transition to clean energy and setting targets more than they are making concrete actions”.
Republicans champion Alaska drilling project that poses major climate test for Biden - House Republicans on Tuesday urged the Biden administration to move forward with a controversial drilling project proposed in Alaska, saying it would bring enormous economic benefits to the region. Their comments referred to ConocoPhillips's Willow project in the National Petroleum Reserve-Alaska, which poses a significant test of the Biden administration's willingness to block fossil fuel drilling and mining on public lands — activities that account for nearly a quarter of the nation's greenhouse gas emissions. : As the largest oil and gas project on the horizon in the United States, Willow could have a significant impact on the climate. It would pump nearly 600 million barrels of oil over 30 years —equivalent to the annual emissions of about a third of all coal plants in the country. : While Willow was approved in the final months of the Trump administration, the Biden administration initially defended the project in court, angering many climate activists.
- However, after a federal judge voided Trump-era permits and approvals for the project last year, the Biden administration declined to appeal the ruling.
- The Interior Department's Bureau of Land Management is now soliciting public comments on a court-ordered supplemental environmental review of the project under the National Environmental Policy Act.
- Climate advocates are urging the administration to conduct a sweeping review of Willow's climate effects, including its greenhouse gas emissions. They argue that such a review would show the project should not go forward at all.
Interior spokeswoman Melissa Schwartz said the department has no further comment on Willow beyond its announcement of the public comment period this month. “As with all public comment periods, all perspectives are welcome,” Schwartz said in an email.
Price tag on Trudeau’s oil pipeline project soars to $17 billion — The cost to expand the Trans Mountain oil pipeline that Justin Trudeau’s government bought from Kinder Morgan Inc. has jumped by 70% to nearly $17 billion, potentially challenging the viability of the line from Canada’s oil heartland to the Pacific Coast. The new estimate of C$21.4 billion ($16.8 billion) includes the costs of enhancements, changes, delays, financing, as well as the impacts of the pandemic and last year’s floods in British Columbia, according to a statement released Friday by Trans Mountain Corp., which was bought in 2018 to save the expansion project from being scrapped. It’s the second time since early 2020 that the cost estimate was raised by about 70%. Canada’s oil industry for years has struggled with a shortage of pipelines to ship crude from Alberta’s oil sands, which hold the world’s third-largest reserves. Trudeau has sought a difficult balance between saving a project that was crucial for the country’s oil industry using taxpayers’ money, at the same time as pledging to help fight climate change. His government on Friday said that it will spend no additional public money on the project, and that Trans Mountain Corp. will instead secure the funding necessary to complete the project with third-party financing, either in the public debt markets or with financial institutions. The government has engaged both BMO Capital Markets and TD Securities to provide advice on financial aspects of the project, according to a statement on the Department of Finance’s website. In order to quell opposition to the project that will increase shipping capacity from about 300,000 barrels a day to more than 800,000, Trudeau’s government has been in talks with First Nations that are willing to own as much as 100% of the pipeline. Trudeau’s government bought the pipeline after Kinder Morgan threatened to halt the expansion because of fierce opposition in British Columbia, including from some indigenous groups along the line’s path that fear it will be a threat to their environment. Completion of the project is now expected in the third quarter of 2023, compared with a previous estimate of as early as this year. “Notwithstanding the cost increase and revised completion schedule, the business case supporting the project remains sound. Canada will benefit from the economic and tax contributions made by the Project once it is in operation,” Trans Mountain said in the statement on its website.
Company responsible for fuel spill off Newfoundland says it's working to mitigate impact -The owner of a cargo ship that spilled fuel into the waters south of Newfoundland says it is working to mitigate the impact of the spill. The MV Alaskaborg, owned by Dutch company Royal Wagenborg, accidentally discharged 30,000 litres of fuel Thursday. In an update Saturday night, the Canadian Coast Guard said the spill occurred over a period of 12.5 hours and a distance of 175 nautical miles. In an emailed statement to CBC, Royal Wagenborg said it has developed a plan using two vessels with pollution response equipment and land-based teams to conduct shoreline assessments in the area. The company said while the accident occurred "as a result of an emergency bilge operation of the cargo hold" amid rough weather, the "exact circumstances of this incident are unknown." The MV Alaskaborg was en route to Rotterdam from Baie Comeau, Que. when the incident occurred. According to a statement from the company, the spill was discovered after daylight on Thursday morning and the incident was immediately reported to authorities in Canada and the Netherlands. The ship was subsequently escorted to St. John's harbour by a coast guard vessel following the incident, arriving in St. John's on Friday night where it remains berthed since.
Calif. wildlife team rescues penguins from Peru oil spill — A California-based wildlife rescue group is helping sea birds that were caught in a major oil spill along the coast of Peru. Unusually large waves from an undersea volcanic eruption in Tonga damaged a tanker ship that was unloading oil at a refinery in Peru. More than 500,000 gallons of heavy crude oil spilled into the Pacific Ocean near the shores of Ventanilla, Peru, on Jan. 15.The spill stained nearly 30 miles of Peru’s beaches and nearby islands. Bird species in the area include the vulnerable Humboldt Penguin, Peruvian Booby, Guanay Cormorant, and the Peruvian Pelican. International Bird Rescue, based in Fairfield, Calif., sent a team of bird experts to help alongside a Brazil-based rescue group, Aiuká. At least 200 oiled animals have been rescued and many are being cared for at Parque de las Leyendas Zoo in Lima, Peru. The spill was described as an “ecological disaster” by the Peruvian government. International Bird Rescue has a long history of working with international emergency response partners to provide the best outcome after an oil spill. Over the past 50 years, International Bird Rescue has responded to over 230 oil spill events, including the 1989 Exxon Valdez Oil Spill, the 2000 Treasure Oil Spill in South Africa where 20,000 oiled penguins were saved, and the 2010 Deepwater Horizon oil rig blowout in the Gulf of Mexico.
Peru: Repsol Must Restore Sea Conditions Prior to Oil Spill - The Peruvian Environment Minister, Modesto Montoya, said on Monday that the Repsol Oil company must restore sea conditions existent before the oil spill. According to Modesto Montoya, the Peruvian Environment Minister said on Monday that Repsol must be in charge of restoring prior conditions of the sea before the events of the oil spill last January 15 at La Pampilla Refinery in Ventanilla district's area. During an interview with Peru Radio Programmes (RPP), the Minister highlighted that even though the cleaning of the crude oil is a complex process, the company must be the one who deals with the matter, because of its responsibility with the events. The Minister noted that the clean-up of the beaches is moving slowly; according to experts in this sector, Repsol has not removed the white foam in areas like the islands where guano birds are found. Such foam is the result of the contact between the oil and the water. He followed by expressing his gratitude to volunteers from universities and disclosed that the clean-up of beaches had been completed to 70 percent, despite the contamination of the seabed remaining, aspects which have to be evaluated. It is estimated that about 2 000 barrels of oil have been already removed from the coast, but the Spanish company Repsol spill is equivalent to around 11 000 barrels. Montoya made emphasis that crude oil has reached other remote places.
Europe relies primarily on imports to meet its natural gas needs --Imports of natural gas by both pipeline and as liquefied natural gas (LNG) provided more than 80% of the supply of natural gas to the countries of the European Union (EU-27) and the United Kingdom (UK) in 2020, up from 65% a decade earlier. During 2020, natural gas imported into the region by pipeline made up 74% of all natural gas imports, and LNG accounted for the remaining 26% of total imports.Pipeline imports of natural gas into the region come from Russia, Norway, North Africa, and Azerbaijan. Pipeline imports originating in Russia—the largest supplier in the region—grew from about 11 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) in 2010 to more than 13 Bcf/d in 2020 (a low consumption year due to COVID-19 related impacts). Despite construction of new pipelines, imports from Norway averaged around 9 Bcf/d between 2010 and 2020, as development of new fields in the Barents Sea section of the Norwegian offshore Continental Shelf was insufficient to offset declines from mature fields in the North Sea. Although LNG imports made up about 26% of all natural gas imports, they provided about 20% of all of the natural gas supplied to the EU-27 countries and the UK in 2020. LNG imports tend to fluctuate from year to year—from as low as 3.6 Bcf/d in 2014 to as high as 10.1 Bcf/d in 2019—depending on global natural gas prices, demand driven by cold weather, and the availability of pipeline supplies. Most LNG delivered to Europe is supplied through long-term contracts. However, growing volumes of flexible LNG supplies, primarily from the United States, contributed to the notable increases in LNG imports to Europe from 2019 to 2021.Regional production has played a smaller role in supplying European natural gas needs over the past decade. From 2010 through 2020, natural gas production in the EU-27 countries and the UK declined by more than 50%, from 18 Bcf/d in 2010 to 9 Bcf/d in 2020. This decline is the result of resource depletion as well as initiatives to fully phase out natural gas production in the region. Regional natural gas demand fell rapidly between 2010 and 2014, and then it stabilized during the five-year period from 2016 to 2020 at approximately 45 Bcf/d. Natural gas consumed by the European industrial sector, where fuel switching is difficult, remained nearly unchanged, averaging 13.7 Bcf/d throughout the 2010–2020 period. Energyefficiency measures and electrification reduced residential and commercial sector natural gas consumption to an average of 17 Bcf/d in 2020. Natural gas consumption in the electric power sector fell the most between 2010 and 2014 as a result of increasing penetration of renewable energy in electricity generation. Starting in 2016, consumption of natural gas in Europe’s electric power sector increased as a result of the systematic retirement of coal-fired power plants across Europe and the retirement of nuclear power plants in Germany in particular.
Putin's threats against Ukraine could reinvigorate the U.S. oil and gas industry - Russian President Vladimir Putin has long made it clear that he is no fan of U.S. shale drilling. But, if he invades Ukraine, he may unwillingly help bring back the American industry. Like other global producers, the U.S. industry was crushed by the pandemic in early 2020. Oil prices crashed, and prices for crude futures even turned negative on the CME for a brief time. An extremely chastened U.S. industry reemerged, with executives more cautious than ever about throwing money down oil wells and angering shareholders. The U.S. industry has been making a slow comeback, helped by rising oil prices, which are up more than 50% in the last year. Putin's threats against Ukraine have helped drive an already rising oil price well above $90 per barrel to a seven-year high, with nearly 30% of that price rise since the start of the year. "The last thing they wanted to do was provide a price incentive for a rebound in U.S. oil and gas production," said Dan Yergin, vice chairman of IHS Markit. "They now succeeded in driving up prices, which is strengthening U.S. oil and gas production." Russia has historically been the largest provider of both oil and natural gas to Europe, and the U.S. has long warned that its control of critical energy sources could prove to be a hazard for European consumers. Yergin said Putin has been a strong opponent of U.S. shale, and as far back as 2013, the Russian president told a public forum in St. Petersburg that shale was a grave threat. President Joe Biden said Tuesday that the U.S. and Russia would continue to use diplomatic channels to avoid a military outcome, but warned the situation remains uncertain. Russia announced Tuesday it was pulling back some of its more than 100,000 troops on the Ukraine border. By Wednesday, however, NATO said Russia instead was increasing its troops. Oil rose Wednesday, with West Texas Intermediate futures for March up 2.6%, at about $94.50 per barrel in afternoon trading. "The geopolitics of energy is back with full fury," Yergin said. Energy is clearly at the center of the conflict. European natural gas prices have been flaring all winter on concerns about short supply. First, the region was unable to put enough natural gas into storage. Then, Russia cut back some supply starting in the fall.
Qatar's Asian gas contracts hamper Ukraine planning - Nikkei Asia U.S. pursues alternative LNG supplies for Europe if Russian cuts flow -- Qatar's deepening trade in natural gas with Asia is complicating global efforts to protect Europe from the threat of an energy squeeze by Russia.
Egypt breaks LNG export records with eye on Europe - — At the end of January, the Gaslog Glasgow departed from the liquefied natural gas (LNG) plant in Damietta, Egypt, and set course for the Gate Terminal in Rotterdam, the only LNG import facility in the Netherlands. With a capacity of 174,000 cubic meters, this was the first such shipment ever from Egypt to the Netherlands, which operates as a hub for the supply of this type of natural gas in the strategic northwest Europe. The shipment symbolically opened the door to a new market at a particularly good time for Egyptian LNG exports. Last year, fueled by an unusually favorable context, Egypt recorded a 10-year high in LNG sales, a flow that local authorities hope to maintain at least in the short term as the country moves to position itself as a regional hub for the trade and distribution of natural gas and to become a major player in the LNG market. Egypt’s road to LNG exports has not been an easy one. For much of the last decade, and especially in the years following the tumultuous 2011, the country has depended heavily on gas imports, to the extent that in 2016 it had to spend some $3 billion to this end. The situation started to reverse rapidly in 2018 after the discovery of new major gas fields, the introduction of far-reaching reforms in the sector, the payment of most dues accumulated to foreign partners and the arrival of extensive foreign direct investments in the industry.The work done over the past few years laid the groundwork for Egyptian LNG exports to register a large increase in 2021, marked by a particularly favorable context. Exports from the Idku plant, one of Egypt’s two liquefied gas facilities, picked up after the fall experienced disruptions amid the early coronavirus pandemic. And the second such facility — the Damietta plant — resumed its production at the end of February after an eight-year hiatus, benefiting from a jump in global LNG prices. The spokesman of the Ministry of Petroleum, Hamdi Abdel-Aziz, considered back then that the return of both plants to operation “will mark the revival and prosperity of Egypt’s LNG production.”At least for now, figures prove him right. Egypt’s exports of natural and liquefied gas jumped during 2021 by 550% to reach $3.9 billion, compared to $600 million the year before, according to a statement attributed to the country’s Minister of Petroleum Tarek el-Mulla, issued Feb. 2 on the ministry’s Facebook page. In December, Mulla detailed that Egypt exports about 1.6 billion cubic feet per day of gas through its two LNG plants. And in a statement following the general assembly of the Egyptian Natural Gas Holding Company (EGAS) Feb. 11, the minister said that the total amount of natural gas and LNG exports reached 3.5 million tons during the first half of Egypt’s current fiscal year, which starts in July, and that he expects them to rise to 7.5 million tons by the end of it.
Azerbaijan's gas exports see nearly 40 pct growth in 2021 (Xinhua) -- Azerbaijan has exported 18.9 billion cubic meters of gas in 2021, registering a 39.8 percent increase year-on-year, the country's energy ministry said in a recent statement. The country's gas production registered 43.9 billion cubic meters last year, increasing by 18.1 percent from 2020. Turkey was the largest market for Azerbaijan's gas in 2021, consuming 8.5 billion cubic meters. Meanwhile, Azerbaijan has exported 28.1 million tons of oil in 2021, a 1 percent fall from 2020, the ministry said. According to the statement, the country produced a total of 34.6 million tons of oil in 2021, falling 2.9 percent short of the forecast. Last November, the government announced plans to raise the gas production output to 50 billion cubic meters by 2026. The country slightly lowered its oil production forecast for the years 2024, 2025 and 2026. In 2023, the oil production is forecast to grow by 2.6 percent. The price of a barrel of Azeri Light crude oil now trades at 99.70 U.S. dollars on world markets
European gas storage levels survive winter but summer refilling looms - (Reuters) - European gas storage levels have fallen less than feared after a mild winter and unprecedented deliveries of liquefied natural gas (LNG), but refilling will be a challenge this summer. The winter gas season runs from October to March and the summer gas season starts in April. Typically in the summer season wholesale gas prices and demand are lower and more gas goes to storage. However, that did not happen last year. Global supply was tight because of high Asian demand for LNG and lower-than-normal Russia gas pipeline flows. Wholesale prices were unusually steep for the summer season and limited the injections of gas into storage. As a result, Europe entered winter with gas storage at its lowest in at least 10 years. Concern that Russian gas supplies would be disrupted if the country invades Ukraine have pushed prices to record levels. Russia has massed troops near Ukraine's border but repeatedly denied it plans to invade. read more "Storage is not expected to end winter at critical levels, and while this gives Europe a bit of a buffer, it does have implications on restocking demand this summer," said Laura Page, senior LNG analyst at data and analytics firm Kpler. According to data from Rystad Energy, northwest European storage levels are around 10% below 2021 volumes. Europe-wide storage remains at a five-year low of 32.6% full, Gas Infrastructure Europe data showed. "Europe received a record 13.15 billion cubic metres of LNG send-out in January after Asia stopped competing for Atlantic basin cargoes," LNG receipts in Europe will remain high this year, but are expected to fall from current levels as Asian buyers need to restock, Japan covers nuclear outages with LNG and overall demand in Asia grows, he added. However, new LNG capacity coming online this year could provide more supply and producers might postpone LNG infrastructure maintenance outages to take advantage of high prices, said Carlos Torres Diaz, head of power and gas markets at Rystad Energy. Russia is unlikely to send higher volumes of natural gas, given its reluctance to book additional pipeline capacity to Europe this year, he added. Another issue is the lack of financial incentive to refill. Putting gas into storage has a cost. That means buyers require lower prices in the summer compared to the following winter to build up stocks, but wholesale prices for gas are uniformally high until next year.\
'A very scary concept': Energy ministers fearful of oil prices surpassing $100 a barrel -- Energy ministers representing Egypt and Cyprus on Monday said they were deeply concerned about the potential for oil prices to climb above $100 a barrel. It comes at a time when more than a dozen countries have urged their citizens to leave Ukraine amid warnings of an imminent Russian invasion. International benchmark Brent crude futures soared to a new seven-year high on Monday morning on the elevated geopolitical tensions. The contract was last seen trading at $94.33, down 0.1% for the session after earlier hitting a peak of $96.16. U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures, meanwhile, stood at $93.20, roughly 0.1% higher. The U.S. and Europe have threatened to sanction Russia if it invades Ukraine, escalating fears of a possible supply disruption from one of the world's top producers. Russia has repeatedly denied it is planning to invade Ukraine dispute amassing around 100,000 soldiers on Ukraine's borders. Speaking at an oil and gas exhibition conference in Cairo, Egypt, energy and petroleum ministers representing Egypt, Cyprus, Israel and the United Arab Emirates were asked whether they expected oil prices to spike into triple-digit territory. "For me, being professional I can see it happening, but I don't want it to happen," Egypt's Petroleum Minister Tarek El Molla told CNBC's Hadley Gamble at EGYPS 2022. Cyprus' Energy Minister Natasa Pilides agreed it was "a very scary concept" to imagine oil prices surpassing $100 a barrel. "It is actually quite tangible," she added. "It is very difficult to deal with because on the one hand, we have the tendency particularly in the last few months of subsidizing basically which is not the norm, so we are in that difficult position where when you start doing that it is very difficult to stop it," Pilides said. "We definitely need to stick to our targets in terms of the energy transition, but I would also add that natural gas has a place in that trajectory as a bridge fuel." Speaking at the same panel event, Israeli Energy Minister Karine Elharrar said: "It is a very hard question, but I think if we don't want to be at [$100 oil] then we have to make sure that we have a diversity of energy sources." The International Energy Agency has previously recognized natural gas as the "cleanest burning and fastest-growing fossil fuel," but has cautioned that its longer-term use in a transition to net-zero energy systems is uncertain. To be sure, the burning of fossil fuels, such as coal, oil and gas, is the chief driver of the climate emergency.
Shutdown of South Africa’s biggest fuel refinery — what it means for jobs and power cuts -- The impending shutdown of the South African Petroleum Refiners (Sapref) joint venture between Shell Downstream South Africa and BP will result in thousands of job losses and help reduce the likelihood of load-shedding.That is according to an analysis of the closure’s potential impact by well-known economist Mike Schussler.Schussler said on Wednesday that the closure of Sapref would see the country producing less than 30% of the petroleum it did in 2005.A chart shared by Schussler showed the country’s petroleum and nuclear fuel output had consistently hovered around 90-100% of 2005’s levels up until 2019.But in 2020, this dropped to 70%, likely driven by Covid-19 reducing demand for petrol with strict lockdowns limiting people’s movement.The downward trend continued in 2021 until production hit 55% of 2005’s levels.The chart below shows the relative production output of petroleum and chemical products in South Africa compared to 2005. Last year’s decline was likely due to Astron Energy and Engen shutting down their refineries in 2021 after fires at the respective facilities in July and December.Executive director of South African Petroleum Industry Association (Sapia), Avhapfani Tshifularo, previously told S&P Global Platts the Astron Energy plant was likely to return to service.However, Tshifularo said they expect Engen would convert its plant into an import terminal.Sapref also had to temporarily pause operations due to the July riots cutting it off from the essential materials needed for refining oil.The loss of Astron and Engen’s plants led to 40% of the country’s petroleum needs being met by imports.
Aquadrill Drillship Catches Fire In Sri Lanka Port - An Aquadrill-owned drillship caught fire earlier this week in a port in Sri Lanka during its stay in layup. According to available information from the port, Aquadrill’s drillship Polaris caught fire on Tuesday at Berth 6 of the Hambantota Port in Sri Lanka. The Hambantota International Port Emergency Response Unit together with the port’s Quality, Health, Safety, and Environment Department, and Port Control responded to a fire that occurred on board the Polaris drillship on Tuesday, February 15. The port authorities said that the ship’s crew alerted Port Control for assistance in dousing the sudden fire that broke out in the ship's emergency generator room. The Emergency Response Unit’s fire trucks arrived on the scene within minutes of being notified, assisting the crew to quickly contain the fire with charged fire hoses. The respective ERU teams brought the fire fully under control within 33 minutes of their arrival and were able to prevent serious damage to the drillship and the surrounding area. “The joint effort of this venture reflects professionalism and assurance to Hambantota International Port users and stakeholders of optimum safety and proactive response to unforeseen events related in maritime operations,” Tissa Wickramasinghe, COO of the port, said. The Polaris drillship has been in layup at the Hambantota Port since January 11, 2021. The ship is expected to remain in port until June 2022.
Navy sent to deal with second oil spill off Rayong - A fresh oil spill was found in the Gulf of Thailand off the coast of Rayong yesterday (Feb 10) and was being cleaned up, according to local authorities. accidents environment pollution It was believed about 5,000 litres of oil had leaked, reports the Bangkok Post. Nine navy ships were deployed to contain the slick which was about 20km from shore, said deputy provincial governor, Pirun Hemarak, adding the situation was under control. He said he did not expect the slick to reach land. The incident comes on the heels of a Jan 25 leak from an underwater pipeline belonging to Star Petroleum Refining Public Company Limited (SPRC), near Map Ta Phut in Rayong. The spill, involving 47,000 litres of crude oil, has since been cleaned up. Yesterday, Pollution Control Department director-general Atthapol Charoenshunsa said SPRC alerted authorities to the latest leak which may have occurred during modification work on an underwater pipeline. An investigation was ongoing to determine the cause. The department initially refused a company request to use about 5,000 litres of dispersant, deeming the amount excessive. However, an unspecified amount was later dispatc
Marine Dept probes second Star Petroleum oil spill off Rayong - The Marine Department is investigating another oil spill off the coast of Rayong that was reportedly caused when Star Petroleum Refining Plc (SPRC) moved the underwater pipeline at its single point mooring (SPM). The same pipeline caused a massive oil spill on January 25. “Moving the pipeline reportedly caused about 5,000 litres of oil that was still in the pipe to flow into the sea on February 10 [Thursday],” said Marine Department deputy director-general Phuri Theerakulpisut on Saturday. The department has banned ships from the area and filed a complaint with Map Tha Phut police accusing SPRC of violating its order to suspend operations at the SPM and causing further marine pollution. The Department also ordered SPRC to issue a Tier 1 warning, which is a standard protocol when less than 20 tonnes of oil is spilled during transport. Under the protocol, after alerting the public, the party responsible for causing the spill must clean up the oil slick or immediately request assistance from agencies to prevent the slick from expanding. “SPRC said they deployed booms around the slick on Thursday and that the situation is now under control,” said Phuri. “The department has dispatched boats and officials to monitor the situation and will investigate to estimate the environmental damage.”
New oil slick washes up at Mae Ramphueng Beach despite SPRC’s blotting efforts (video) A slick caused by the leakage of 5,000 litres of oil from an undersea pipeline off the coast of Rayong has washed up at Mae Ramphueng Beach, press reports said on Saturday. Share this article The sand on the beach is now covered with a glossy film of slime with an oily smell despite Star Petroleum Refining (SPRC)’s efforts to disperse the oil with booms and blotting papers. New oil slick washes up at Mae Ramphueng Beach despite SPRC’s blotting efforts Tapong subdistrict mayor Taweep Saengkrachang echoed Deputy Transport Minister’s assumption earlier that the latest leak had been caused by SPRC’s inspection of the pipeline at the single point mooring (SPM) site. As for the slick on the beach, he reckons it is accumulated from the initial spill of more than 40,000 litres of crude oil on January 25. He also voiced concern that oil accumulated under the sea would wash up between March and April when the monsoon arrives. Meanwhile, the Pollution Control Department has collected samples of the oil slick for tests. So far, related agencies, including the Thai Navy, have been working hard to clear the slick with booms and chemical dispersants. “A large slick is visible seven kilometres off the coast of Mae Ramphueng Beach and 10km from Samet Island,” press reports said. This is a second leak after some 160,000 litres of crude oil was leaked from an SPRC pipeline about 17 kilometres from the Map Ta Phut Industrial Port. Published : February 12, 2022
Second oil spill 'doubles' damage to Rayong coast - A second oil spill from a pipeline owned by Star Petroleum Refining Public Co Ltd (SPRC) has at least doubled the damage to the marine environment off the coast of Rayong, an expert said on Sunday. Thon Thamrongnawasawat, deputy dean of the Faculty of Fisheries at Kasetsart University, wrote on his Facebook page on Sunday that oil slicks can once again be seen along Mae Ramphueng beach, one of the areas worst-affected by the first oil spill on Jan 25. After the first spill, the Ministry of Natural Resources and the Environment urged the police to investigate SPRC. The company was also told to cease operations immediately after the incident. However, SPRC admitted on Thursday that a further 5,000 litres of crude oil had leaked from the same pipeline. Mr Thon said thin films of crude oil can be seen along Mae Ramphueng beach once again. Worse still, he wrote, samples taken from the beach showed the oil was seeping deeper into the sand. A study of wedge clams, a known biological indicator of pollution, that were taken from the area showed many were killed as a result of exposure to crude oil. The spill, he said, isn't just affecting local clam populations, as many other crustaceans commonly found along the coast have also been affected. The clean-up of Mae Ramphueng beach is carried out by the Air and Coastal Defence Command under the navy, which recently said the situation was "under control".
IEA forecast: Oil demand up 900,000 bpd for 2022 - The International Energy Agency (IEA) revised up its global oil demand estimates for 2022 by around 900,000 barrels per day (bpd) compared to last month's assessment. Global oil demand is estimated to reach 100.6 million bpd, increasing by 3.2 million bpd in the 2022 year on year, according to the IEA's latest oil market report on Friday. "The milder-than-expected negative impact of the Omicron variant on demand has been largely offset by additional consumption stemming from a cold snap in the US and a continued switch to oil from gas in some industrial sectors," the agency explained. It noted that the absolute level of demand increased significantly from last month's report, due to changes to the IEA's baseline estimates for Saudi Arabia and China, which have been revised higher on new and more complete data. The agency projects that the fast spread of the omicron variant and accelerated vaccination programs are expected to increase population immunity by the end of the first quarter, while restrictions to mobility are anticipated to be more limited in the second half of the year, supporting a strong recovery in transportation demand. The growth this year will be driven by the Asia Pacific region with 37.5 million bpd of demand, followed by the Americas with 31.03 million bpd and Europe with 14.4 million bpd. The IEA said global oil supply increased by 560,000 bpd in January to 98.7 million bpd, “with non-OPEC+ producers delivering 70% of the increase while the OPEC+ alliance continued to pump far below target levels.” The Agency stressed that the group's persistent supply shortfall, largely due to technical issues and other capacity constraints, has resulted in a loss to the market of around 800,000 bpd since the start of 2021. The prevailing lower output levels versus stated monthly increases by the bloc have led to unintended consequences, with sharp draws in global inventories and supply shortfalls compounding tight oil markets, the Agency said. The report noted that in January non-OPEC+ oil supply rose by 410,000 bpd, led by higher output from Canada, Ecuador, Brazil, and China. Total oil production from OPEC+ rose by a more modest 150,000 bpd after a recovery in Nigeria while higher Middle East and Russian flows were partly offset by lower output in Venezuela and Libya. By the end of this year, the amount of oil lost could approach 1 billion barrels unless members with substantial spare capacity, concentrated in the Middle East, pump more to make up for those who cannot, the Agency warned, adding that "there is no sign of that happening yet." As for Iran, which is in talks to revive the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) nuclear deal, crude production could rise towards a sustainable capacity of 3.8 million bpd, up roughly 1.3 million bpd from current levels by the end of this year, according to the IEA. Iran also has about 80 million barrels of crude oil and condensate stored on tankers, the Agency said, adding that it will move to clear that overhang as quickly as possible. In addition to Chinese exports, the IEA also expects Iran to re-establish supply contracts with key customers in India, Korea, Japan, Turkey and Europe.
Nigeria Boosts Oil Production By 200,000b/d - In order to meet its Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) quota, Nigeria has boosted its crude oil production by over 200,000 barrels per day (b/d). Data obtained from OPEC’s February Monthly Oil Market Report (MOMR) showed that the country’s output, which slid to around 1.1 million b/d last December, climbed to 1.3 million b/d in January. Nigeria’s output ranged between 1.1 mb/d and 1.2mb/d the whole of last year. The country had shut eight oil terminals between August and October, according to statistics from the Nigerian National Petroleum Company, NNPC, Limited. The affected eight terminals include Forcados, Bonny, Odudu, Brass, Yoho, Urha, Ajapa and Aje. As a result, deferred/lost production in October alone was to the tune of 4,824,946 barrels of oil, the lowest among the figures posted during the three-month period. The shut-ins and losses, according to the report, were due to pipeline vandalism, theft, community interferences, sabotage of oil facilities, among others. Losses and deferment in August, September and October were put at 6,680,620 barrels; 6,362,700 barrels; and 4,824,946 barrels respectively. It was also observed that eight crude oil terminals were affected in August, as production was curtailed at the facilities during the period. The affected terminals in the reviewed month include Forcados, Sea Eagle, Brass, Yoho, Qua Iboe, Escravos, Ajapa and Otakikpo. Explaining some of the incidents that curtailed production in one of the terminals, for instance, the NNPC said, “Energia (an oil firm) injection into Brass line (was) suspended due to pipeline damages. “Pillar injection into Brass was suspended due to third party interferences on NAOC (Nigerian Agip Oil Company) Akiri pipeline.” For the month of September, 18 incidents warranted deferment of 6,362,700 barrels of crude oil following production shut-ins recorded. A total of nine terminals were affected in September, including Forcados, Sea Eagle, Brass, Yoho, Qua Iboe, Escravos, Urha, Ajapa and Otakikpo. On some of the incidents that led to the crude oil losses in September, the NNPC stated that “production (was) curtailed due to pipeline outages” at the Forcados Terminal. It also noted that “Energia injection into Brass line (was) suspended from September 1 to 30, 2021 due to pipeline damage”. Findings from the NNPC reports of events that affected production in October 2021, however, showed that the incidents that led to crude oil production shut-ins, reduced to 11 during the month.
IEA Calls On OPEC+ To Boost Production To Targets - OPEC+ producers need to pump more oil to close the widening gap between nameplate production quotas and actual output, the executive director of the International Energy Agency (IEA), Fatih Birol, said on Monday. The laggards in the OPEC+ oil output targets should look to produce more to balance the tight market, Birol said at the Egypt Petroleum Show in Cairo today, as quoted by Reuters.If OPEC+ continues to fail in delivering its oil production targets amid rising demand and inventories at multi-year lows, oil prices will remain under upward pressure and are set for more volatility, the IEA said in its monthly report.“If the persistent gap between OPEC+ output and its target levels continues, supply tensions will rise, increasing the likelihood of more volatility and upward pressure on prices. But these risks, which have broad economic implications, could be reduced if producers in the Middle East with spare capacity were to compensate for those running out,” the IEA said in its Oil Market Report for February.“If OPEC+ cuts are fully unwound, the bloc could increase output by 4.3 mb/d. Of course, that would come at the expense of effective spare capacity, which could fall to 2.5 mb/d by the end of the year and end up held almost entirely by Saudi Arabia and, to a lesser extent, the UAE,” the agency said.The gap between OPEC+ output and its target levels surged to as much as 900,000 barrels per day (bpd) in January, according to IEA estimates.The chronic underperformance of OPEC+ and geopolitical tensions have pushed oil prices to more than a seven-year high, with Brent hitting $95 per barrel early on Monday amid fears of an imminent Russian invasion of Ukraine that could lead to disruption of oil supplies.
OPEC+ is in no rush to bring oil prices down and rightly so | Analysis – Gulf News -- The oil markets seem to have ignored the informal understandings between OPEC+ oil producing countries and the US to maintain a price level of $70-$75 per barrel. Market factors, especially strong demand and geopolitical tensions with a bit of speculation thrown in, remain the key determinant of oil prices, and raising it up to more than $96 earlier in the week. What matters here is what will happen in the coming months as demand rises as a result of steady global economic recovery. Yes, this will coincide with concerns over political developments, especially the Ukraine-Russian crisis. There is also the relatively limited production capacity in OPEC+ countries. During its meeting early this month, OPEC+ members decided to increase production - based on the previous agreement - by 400,000 barrels per day until next March, which reflects their belief that today’s price levels do not require their intervention. This shows that the OPEC+ group is in no hurry to bring prices down. In any case, the output cut agreement will expire next April, which may require a redistribution of quotas, especially as some member states that have excess production capacity are demanding an increase in their share. This is expected in light of the level of supply and demand in the oil markets. However, if the price of a barrel exceeds $100, there is a possibility that such a step will be taken any time. A possible agreement on Iran’s nuclear programme is looming on the horizon in Vienna, after fulfilling part or most of the Iranian conditions. Washington has agreed, rather submissively, to separate the nuclear program from the rest of the military activities and Iranian interference in the internal affairs of other countries, which means an imminent pumping of Iranian oil for international markets. In fact, Iranian oil is already being traded in the markets, and allowing them to officially pump oil will not have a significant effect on the levels of supply. Oil markets had braced for this return since the Biden administration came to power last year. The Iranian oil production is estimated at 2.5 million barrels per day, down from 4 mbd before the sanctions, of which 1.9 million barrels are consumed internally and 600,000 barrels exported, mostly to China, which imports 340,000 barrels at steep discounts in exchange for goods. This means Iran needs to increase its production capacity to contribute significantly to the global oil markets. In a best-case scenario, Iran’s increase will not exceed half a million barrels in the short-term, which the markets can absorb quickly due to the increasing demand. Yet, the Iranian oil issue will constitute an ideal opportunity for speculators to exploit it to achieve profits by manipulating prices.
Oil Curves Show One of the Tightest Markets Ever | Rigzone -- Oil futures curves are indicating one of the strongest periods the market has ever seen, amid a bout of headline price volatility. Brent prices have swung wildly above $90 this week, but there’s been even more action in the market’s structure. Nearby contracts are commanding enormous premiums over those further out, indicating that traders are clamoring for barrels right now. Some futures spreads have reached their strongest levels in data going back to 2007. Nowhere is the move clearer than in the world’s most important physical oil price -- Dated Brent -- which on Wednesday topped $100 for the first time since 2014. The market for real barrels in the North Sea has boomed in recent weeks, with differentials for some physical cargoes hitting the highest on record as demand from European refiners surges. “The strength in Dated Brent clearly suggests refiners are out procuring short-haul barrels,” Energy Aspects analysts including Amrita Sen wrote in a note to clients this week. “The only way to balance this market over the medium term remains high oil prices to slow demand growth.” In the U.S., stockpiles at the key hub of Cushing, Oklahoma are at their lowest since 2018, spurring tightness in West Texas Intermediate crude. Brent futures were down 1.6% in London near $93.33 on Thursday. West Texas Intermediate lost 1.7% to $92.11. Last week, the International Energy Agency boosted its historical demand numbers, offering the latest indication that consumption has been running ahead of expectations. While most forecasting agencies had expected global oil stockpiles to rise markedly in the early part of the year, that has so far failed to materialize. The tightness has only added to calls that headline prices will soon top $100. Options traders have been betting on that outcome for months, with millions of barrels worth of contracts at $100 and above. “Price action since just before Christmas has been an incredibly bullish one-way street,” said Bjarne Schieldrop, chief commodities analyst at SEB AB. “You don’t see that unless market is very, very tight.” The moves in headline prices in recent days have been driven by two of the market’s biggest geopolitical risks -- the potential return of Iranian barrels to the market and political tension around Ukraine. On Thursday, Russian state media cited Moscow-backed separatists as saying Ukrainian forces had violated cease-fire rules overnight. While Russia has insisted that it’s serious about easing tensions -- and has repeatedly denied that it plans an invasion of its smaller neighbor -- the U.S. says Moscow is still building up troop levels near the border. “It’s a headline-driven market at the moment, with the market reacting to sensitive news from Eastern Europe and related to the Iran nuclear talks,
Oil Prices Hit Seven-year High Over Russia-Ukraine Tensions - Oil prices hit their highest in more than seven years on Monday. A possible invasion of Ukraine by Russia could trigger U.S. and European sanctions that would disrupt exports from the world's top producer in an already tight market. Brent crude futures was at $95.65 a barrel by 0742 GMT, up $1.21, or 1.3%, after earlier hitting a peak of $96.16, the highest since October 2014. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude rose $1.28, or 1.4%, to $94.38 a barrel, hovering near a session-high of $94.94, the loftiest since September 2014. Comments from the United States about an imminent attack by Russia on Ukraine have rattled global financial markets. Russia could invade Ukraine at any time and might create a surprise pretext for an attack, the United States claimed on Sunday. Over the last few months, the US and UK have been accusing Russia of planning to invade Ukraine, which Moscow has vehemently denied, dismissing the allegations as “fake news”. Ukraine has also urged Western media and politicians who are warning of an “imminent” invasion to stop fueling panic. “Oil prices will remain extremely volatile and sensitive to incremental updates regarding the Ukraine situation,” The tensions come as the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies, a group known as OPEC+, struggle to ramp up output despite monthly pledges to increase production by 400,000 barrels per day (bpd) until March. The International Energy Agency said the gap between OPEC+ output and its target widened to 900,000 bpd in January, while JP Morgan announced the gap for OPEC alone was at 1.2 million bpd. “We note signs of strain across the group: seven members of OPEC-10 failed to meet quota increases in the month, with the largest shortfall exhibited by Iraq,” JP Morgan analysts said in a Feb. 11 note. The bank added that a supercycle is in full swing with “oil prices likely to overshoot to $125 a barrel on widening spare capacity risk premium”.
Oil hits 7-year highs, fueled by Russia-Ukraine tensions - Oil prices surged on Monday over 2% to their highest in more than seven years as Ukraine's President said he had heard that Russia could invade the country on Wednesday. Russia is one of the world's largest oil-and-gas producers, and fears that it could invade Ukraine have driven the rally in oil closer to the $100-per-barrel mark. "The market remains hyper-sensitive to the developments over the Russian/Ukraine situation," Brent crude rose $2.04, or 2.2%, to settle at $96.48 a barrel, after touching its highest since September 2014 at $96.78. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude rose $2.36, or 2.5%, to settle at $95.46 a barrel, after hitting $95.82, the loftiest since September 2014. Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said he had heard that Wednesday could be the day of a Russian invasion. The United States sees no "tangible sign" of de-escalation of Russian forces on the Ukraine border, the U.S. State Department said. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said the United States was relocating its embassy operations in Ukraine from the capital Kyiv to the western city of Lviv, citing the "dramatic acceleration in the buildup of Russian forces." Russia has amassed thousands of troops near Ukraine's borders, but Moscow denies it plans to invade and has accused the West of hysteria. The United States warned on Sunday that Russia could invade Ukraine at any time and might create a surprise pretext for an attack. Russia is one of the largest crude oil producers, with a capacity of about 11.2 million barrels per day, "Any disruption of oil flows from the region would send Brent and WTI prices skyrocketing higher far above $100, in a market struggling to supply the increased demand for crude as economies recover from the pandemic," Investors are also watching talks between the United States and Iran. The Iranian foreign minister said Iran was "in a hurry" to reach a swift agreement in nuclear talks in Vienna, provided its national interests are protected. "A nuclear deal between the United States and Iran could release 1.3 million barrels of supply, but this will not be sufficient to ease the supply constraints," said Pratibha Thaker, the Economist Intelligence Unit's editorial director for the Middle East and Africa.
Oil Falls as Russia Pulls Back Troops, Calls for Diplomacy -- Oil futures nearest delivery plummeted early Tuesday, sending U.S. and international crude benchmarks more than 3% lower after Russia announced a partial withdrawal of its military troops amassed along the Ukrainian border, sharply deescalating tensions in its standoff with the West that has rallied oil futures to their highest price points in 7-1/2 years. Brent plunged towards $93 per barrel (bbl) after Russian Ministry of Defense, Sergei Shoigu, confirmed on Tuesday that some of the forces positioned along the Ukrainian border over the last four months were being pulled back to their bases. The move comes less than 72 hours after the United States government warned of an imminent Russian attack on eastern Ukraine, relocated its Ukrainian Embassy close to the Polish border, and called on its citizens to leave the country as soon as possible. Moscow has consistently denied any plans to invade Ukraine and maintained that the troop buildup was part of military drills that were nearing completion in mid-February. The large buildup of Russian forces however, set off alarm bells in the West, with major news outlets calling for imminent Russian attack for months now that some suggest stoked panic and warmongering among the American public. Fears of a Russian attack, the impact of sanctions on the global economy, and surging commodity prices hit markets hard on Monday, pulling both the Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500 into negative territory for the session, lifting gold prices to the highest levels in eight months, and sparking an oil price rally that took U.S. crude past $95 for the first time since 2014. In morning trade Tuesday, U.S. benchmark fell more than $3 to trade a tad above $92 bbl, and international crude benchmark Brent for April delivery traded near $93.40 bbl after topping $96 bbl on Monday. NYMEX March RBOB futures slumped more than 8 cents to $2.6966 gallon, and the front-month ULSD contract was down 9 cents at $2.8710 gallon. Futures tied to DJIA indicate a 365-point opening bell gain while those linked to the S&P 500, which is down 7.65% for the year, are priced for a 62-point advance. U.S. dollar declined 0.29% against a basket of foreign currencies to trade near 96.080. Russia remains one of the top 10 economies in the world and a leading commodity exporter, which includes palladium, coal, gas, aluminum, and crude oil. A military conflict could have sent commodity prices surging to fresh highs at a time when much of the world is already coping with sky-high inflation.
Oil Dips with Talks of Russian Troops Retreating | Rigzone - Oil fell after Russia said some troops are starting to return to their permanent bases, easing geopolitical tensions that previously rallied prices. Futures in New York closed down 3.6% after falling nearly $5 a barrel during the session, the most since November 30. Crude has swung wildly this week amid a flurry of reports about the tensions over Ukraine. While the U.S. had earlier warned an invasion may be imminent, President Vladimir Putin said talks with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz were businesslike and could be the basis of further discussions. Moscow has repeatedly denied it plans to attack. Still, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said it was yet to see any signs of a reduced Russian presence along the border with Ukraine. The market is holding on to every word in the standoff, with everything from natural gas and metals to global equities reacting to Russia’s comments about the pullback of troops on Tuesday. “Profit-taking with oil was inevitable after Russia’s Defense Ministry stated that some troops are starting to return to their regular bases after completing drills,” said Ed Moya, Oanda’s senior market analyst for the Americas. “The Ukraine situation still remains tense and oil prices could swing $10 in either direction.” Adding to geopolitical tensions, the underlying oil market is one of the strongest in years. S&P Global Platts assessed the Dated Brent price, which values more than half of the world’s crude, at more than $99 a barrel on Monday, traders said. Gauges of market strength along the futures curve are trading at some of their firmest levels on record as supply struggles to keep pace with booming demand. WTI for March delivery fell $3.39 to settle at $92.07 a barrel in New York. Brent for April dropped $3.20 to $93.28 a barrel. Falling stockpiles have also been a major driver of recent gains, and later Tuesday the industry-funded American Petroleum Institute will issue estimates for changes in U.S. holdings. Inventories at the key storage hub at Cushing, Oklahoma, have sunk for the past five weeks, according to government data. Still in the U.S., producers are ramping up supplies to take advantage of higher prices. Production from America’s Permian Basin rose to a record for a third month in a row in January, topping 5 million barrels a day, according to data from the Energy Information Administration.
WTI Holds Losses Despite Across-The-Board Inventory Draws Oil prices tumbled today after Russia said some troops are starting to return to their permanent bases, removing some of the geopolitical risk premium that has been embedded recently. “Profit-taking with oil was inevitable after Russia’s Defense Ministry stated that some troops are starting to return to their regular bases after completing drills,” “The Ukraine situation still remains tense and oil prices could swing $10 in either direction.” But for now, the next leg will be governed by any potential surprise in tonight's inventory data. API:
- Crude -1.076mm (-220k exp)
- Cushing -2.382mm
- Gasoline -923k (-900k exp)
- Distillates -546k (-1mm exp)
This is the 6th straight week of falling stocks at the Cushing hub as API reported inventory draws across the board... Having neared $96 amid Friday's panic-fear-mongering of an imminent invasion by the Biden administration, today's Putin headlines sent WTI back to a $90 handle briefly before it bounced back to $92 after Biden spoke again and reiterated the threats. WTI oscillated around $92 after the API report... "Whatever the answer is, the reality is that when they find that number, oil will resume the rally,"
Oil Rallies After API Data Shows US Inventories Drawn Down-- Following Tuesday's selloff triggered by deescalating tensions along the Russian-Ukrainian border, oil futures rallied early Wednesday after industry data from the American Petroleum Institute reported total petroleum stockpiles in the United States declined again last week, with commercial oil supplies standing at their lowest level since September 2018 at a time when fuel consumption shows signs of a solid rebound after demand was constrained from winter storms and Omicron surge of COVID-19 infections. API reported late Tuesday U.S. commercial crude oil supplies fell 1.076 million barrels (bbl) during the week-ended Feb. 11, surpassing calls for a 600,000 bbl draw. If realized in data from the Energy Information Administration later this morning, the decline would be third consecutive drawdown from nationwide oil inventories that currently stand 11% below the five-year average. The report also showed crude stocks at the Cushing, Oklahoma, delivery point for West Texas Intermediate futures declined 2.382 million bbl last week. The report was also bullish for the refined fuel complex, showing gasoline supplies fell 923,00 bbl in the week through Feb. 11 versus an expected build of 500,000 bbl, while distillate inventories declined 546,000 bbl. Analysts mostly expected distillate stocks to have declined 1.7 million bbl from the previous week. Large stock draw coincides with rebounding demand for motor gasoline, with more Americans also seeing the relief from an abating COVID-19 surge. DTN Refined Fuels Demand data revealed gasoline demand in the United States surged 5.6% in the week-ended Feb. 11, while up 9.9% year-on-year. Demand for middle distillates spiked 7.5% from the prior week, reflecting rebounding demand from the prior week which saw demand weakness amid winter storms. In early trading Wednesday, U.S. benchmark advanced more than $1 to near $93.40 bbl, and international crude benchmark Brent for April delivery gained to $94.80 bbl after topping $96 bbl on Monday. NYMEX March RBOB futures added 2.49 cents to $2.6940 gallon, and the front-month ULSD contract rallied 2.79 cents to $2.8876 gallon.
WTI Soars Back Above $95 As "Tank Bottoms" Are Close At Cushing -- A combination of US and NATO comments that Russia is not retreating (providing no evidence of said statement) and the continued plunge in stocks at Cushing, has sent pil prices soaring. With debates about "tank bottoms" being close at America's largest storage hub......WTI has now erased all of yesterday's losses and more and is trading back above $95... That is going to crush Biden's plan to bring down retail gas prices. Oil prices are rebounding dramatically this morning, accelerating gains from last night's across the board inventory draw reported by API, after US SecState Blinken (and NATO's Stoltenberg) claimed that there are no signs that Russia is withdrawing (and remember today was 'invasion day' according to the mainstream media). “Market participants are still willing to pay a sizable premium for oil that is deliverable at short notice,” Will an unexpected crude build spook oil traders or a big draw lift prices back to Biden-crushing highs? DOE
- Crude +1.12mm (-220k exp)
- Cushing -1.90mm
- Gasoline -1.33mm (-900k exp)
- Distillates -1.552mm (-1mm exp)
Flipping the script from API, the official data showed that Crude inventories unexpectedly built last week. Cushing stocks fell for the 6th straight week.. U.S. Gulf refiners cut runs to 83.5%, the lowest since October after a cold spell cut off power to four major refiners. Cushing stocks extend their plunge back towards operational low levels, dropping to the lowest level since Sept 2018 (adding to global inventory tightness fears). Notably, this low level of inventories at the biggest storage hub in the country is one reason why prompt timespreads are soaring.Gasoline demand unexpectedly slowed once again last week, after rebounding from Omicron... Graphs Source: Bloomberg US crude production was flat week over week, despite a big jump in the rig count... After yesterday's biggest daily drop this year, WTI was trading back above $94 ahead of the official inventory data, and extending gains despite the crude build...
Oil resumes rally as Russia-Ukraine tensions stay high (Reuters) -Oil prices rose more than 1% on Wednesday as investors weighed conflicting statements on the possible withdrawal of some Russian troops from around Ukraine. Futures fell after the settlement, however, after U.S. and Iranian officials said they were much closer to an agreement on the latter’s nuclear weapons development that would allow it to ramp up global oil sales. Russia’s threatening posture toward Ukraine has dominated oil markets for several weeks, with concerns that supply disruptions from the major producer in a tight global market could push oil prices to $100 a barrel. “The market has been reflective of what the situation has been and what it could be, which is ambiguity from one day to the next,” Oil was supported by weekly data that showed U.S. fuel demand holding at record highs, while crude inventories at the Cushing, Oklahoma, storage hub and delivery point for U.S. futures dropped to their lowest since September 2018. Brent crude settled up $1.52, or 1.6%, to $94.81 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude ended up $1.59, or 1.7%, to $93.66, pulling back from the day’s high of $95.01 a barrel. On Monday, both benchmarks hit their highest since September 2014, with Brent touching $96.78 and WTI reaching $95.82. Following the close, the U.S. State Department said it was in the midst of the final stages of Iran nuclear talks, while Iran’s top nuclear negotiator Ali Bagheri Kani tweeted that after weeks of intensive talks, “we are closer than ever to an agreement.” Oil dropped sharply, albeit on thin volume, with Brent and U.S. crude both falling 1%. “The devil is going to be in the details and how quickly Iranian oil can resume,” The United States and NATO said Russia was still building up troops around Ukraine on Wednesday despite Moscow’s insistence it was pulling back, questioning President Vladimir Putin’s stated desire to negotiate a solution to the crisis. Russia’s finance minister said the country would be ready to re-route energy supplies should Western sanctions target its energy sector. U.S. crude inventories rose by 1.1 million barrels last week, but overall inventories at the Cushing hub dropped by 1.9 million barrels, and product supplied – a proxy for demand – hit a record 22.1 million barrels per day over the past four weeks, the Energy Information Administration said.
WTI, Brent Futures Drop Back on Progress in Iranian Talks -- Oil futures nearest delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange and Brent crude traded on the Intercontinental Exchange declined early Thursday. Both benchmarks traded 2% lower following reports U.S. and Iranian negotiators, through intermediaries, are closing in on a nuclear agreement that could lead to the lifting of sanctions on the country's crude oil exports within days. The United States is in "the midst of the final stages" of indirect talks in Vienna with Iran aimed at reviving the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, State Department spokesperson Ned Price said on Wednesday. "It is not a question of weeks, it is a question of days," added French Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian, referring to a nuclear deal that could lift sanctions on as much as 2 million barrels per day (bpd) in Iranian crude oil exports. Analysts suggest Iran holds a sizable quantity of oil in offshore storage that could be tapped immediately to take advantage of higher oil prices. With a new deal on the horizon, South Korea said on Wednesday it held talks on resuming imports of Iranian crude oil and unfreezing Iranian funds. South Korea was previously one of Tehran's leading oil buyers in Asia. The Vienna talks, which involve Britain, China, France, Germany, and Russia directly, and the United States indirectly, resumed in November 2021 after the Trump administration unliterally withdrew from the deal in 2018 and reimposed heavy economic sanctions, prompting Iran to begin rolling back on its commitments. Further weighing on the oil complex, the U.S. Dollar Index gained in early trade Thursday after minutes from the Federal Open Market Committee's January meeting showed the U.S. central bank is ready to raise interest rates and shrink its balance sheets "soon" to quell inflationary pressures within the economy. Markets have been on edge over the past several weeks as soaring inflation and hawkish talk from some Fed officials, including St. Louis Fed President James Bullard, have prompted traders to price in the equivalent of seven 0.25% rate hikes this year. Market pricing eased some after the minutes were release, with a 50% chance now seen that the Fed lifts the benchmark rate by 50 or 75 basis points in March. In early trading, West Texas Intermediate March futures declined nearly $2.50 to $91.25 barrel (bbl) and international crude benchmark Brent for April delivery fell $2.40 to near $92.40 bbl. NYMEX March RBOB futures slumped nearly 7 cents to $2.6075 gallon, and the front-month ULSD contract declined nearly 9 cents to $2.7685 gallon.
Oil falls, caught between Iran talks and Ukraine crisis - Oil prices fell 2% on Thursday as talks to resurrect a nuclear deal with Iran entered their final stages, but losses were limited by heightened tensions between top energy exporter Russia and the West over Ukraine. Brent crude declined 2% to $92.87 per barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude settled 1.44% lower at $91.76 per barrel. "(The) oil market is locked in a tug of war between Iranian sanctions relief and Russian-Ukraine tensions," said Stephen Brennock at brokerage PVM Oil. The United States is in "the midst of the very final stages" of indirect talks with Iran, aimed at salvaging a 2015 deal limiting Tehran's nuclear activities, State Department spokesperson Ned Price said on Wednesday. A decision on salvaging the nuclear deal was said by France on Wednesday to be only days away and that it was up to Tehran to make the political choice, though Iran called on Western powers to be "realistic." With a new deal possibly on the horizon, South Korea said on Wednesday it had held talks on resuming imports of Iranian crude oil and unfreezing Iranian funds. South Korea was previously one of Tehran's leading oil buyers in Asia. However, continuing tensions over a possible Russian invasion of Ukraine continues to support oil markets because of the potential disruption to energy supplies. Russian-backed rebels and Ukrainian forces traded accusations on Thursday that each had fired across the ceasefire line in eastern Ukraine, raising alarm at a time when Western countries have warned of a possible Russian invasion any day. Moscow's announcement of a partial pullback of troops from near Ukraine this week was countered by Western governments warning that Russia was building up military presence near the Ukraine border.
Oil heads for weekly fall on Iranian oil hopes - Oil prices reversed losses to trade in the green on Friday, but were still headed for a weekly loss. The prospect of increased Iranian oil exports has eclipsed fears of potential supply disruption resulting from the Russia-Ukraine crisis. Brent crude futures advanced 57 cents, or 0.6%, to settle at $93.54 per barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures settled 69 cents, or 0.75%, lower at $91.07 per barrel. Fears over possible supply disruptions resulting from the Russian military presence at Ukraine's borders have capped losses this week. "For all the talk of war and conflict, market players remain unconvinced. This is perhaps why the geopolitical risk premium is starting to wane," said Stephen Brennock at brokerage PVM Oil. Both benchmark contracts hit their highest levels since September 2014 on Monday, but the prospect of an easing of oil sanctions against Iran has set prices on course for their first weekly fall in nine weeks. However, a deal taking shape to revive Iran's 2015 nuclear agreement with world powers lays out phases of mutual steps to bring both sides back into full compliance, and the first does not include waivers on oil sanctions, diplomats say. Consequently, there is little chance of Iranian crude returning to the market in the immediate future to ease current supply tightness, analysts said. "Stocks are therefore likely to remain considerably below the long-term average for quite some time yet," said Commerzbank analyst Carsten Fritsch, adding that this could widen already record-high futures spreads. Tight oil supplies pushed the six-month market structure for Brent crude to its widest backwardation on record on Wednesday. Backwardation exists when contracts for near-term delivery are priced higher than those for later months and is reflective of near-term demand that encourages traders to release oil from storage to sell it promptly.
Oil Down this Week with Increased Geopolitical Tensions | Rigzone - Oil posted its first weekly loss in two months as traders weighed heightened geopolitical tensions over Ukraine against the potential for Iranian barrels to be added to the market. West Texas Intermediate closed down near $91 a barrel on Friday. U.S. crude fell 2.2% this week, fluctuating as prices of commodities from gas to metals and food swung with every twist and turn in the standoff between the West and Russia. The U.S. ramped up warnings of a possible Russian attack on Ukraine, Russian officials continued to reiterate that no invasion was underway and none was planned. U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Russia Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov have agreed to meet for talks next week. Even with its most recent leg higher, oil’s recent rally has shown signs of cooling. The North Sea market has seen differentials for physical barrels ease, while refining margins have come under pressure. One oil-focused exchange-traded fund saw its biggest daily withdrawal since July 2020. Additionally, mounting speculation that Iran’s nuclear deal may be revived is damping some of the bullish signals. The deal could pave the way for the removal of U.S. sanctions on the nation’s crude exports, adding much-needed supply to the market. WTI’s prompt spread--the difference between its nearest two contracts-- dropped to 86 cents, down sharply from its $2 premium earlier this week. The narrower spread signals that traders expect supplies to be somewhat less tight next month amid muted exports. March crude futures expire on Tuesday. Crude rose to the highest since 2014 this week in a blistering rally underpinned by roaring demand, constrained supply, and declining inventories. The underlying market is one of the strongest its been in years, and Dated Brent, a more immediate measurement of oil prices, hit $100 a barrel. While the market remains strong, prices have weakened as the geopolitical risk premium has declined in the past few days. “In addition to the Ukraine situation, Iran nuclear talks continue to head in the right direction, potentially paving the way for more barrels of crude to hit the oil market later this year.”
Agreement reached on transfer of oil from abandoned tanker off Yemen: UN -An ‘agreement in principle’ has been reached to transfer the toxic cargo from a rusting oil tanker abandoned off the coast of war-torn Yemen to another ship, the UN said Tuesday. Experts warn of the risk of a major environmental disaster posed by the 45-year-old FSO Safer, moored since 2015 off Yemen’s western port of Hodeida. An oil spill could destroy ecosystems in the Red Sea, shut down the vital port and expose millions of people to high levels of pollution, according to independent studies. “I am pleased to report recent progress in efforts to resolve the Safer tanker issue, including an agreement in principle to a UN-coordinated proposal to shift the oil to another ship,” said Martin Griffiths, the UN’s deputy chief for humanitarian affairs. He gave no further details about the operation or when the transfer might take place. Ten days ago the UN indicated that positive discussions between Yemeni government officials and Houthi rebels had seen both sides keen to find an emergency solution to avoid a catastrophic spill. According to environmental group Greenpeace an oil spill would prevent access to Yemen’s main ports of Hodeida and Salif, affecting food aid supplies for up to 8.4 million people. Coastal countries including Djibouti, Eritrea and Saudi Arabia could also be affected, in addition to commercial maritime traffic in the Red Sea. Inspection of the deteriorating ship has dragged on for years with UN requests for access repeatedly delayed over disagreements with the Houthi rebel movement, which controls much of the north including Hodeida and Salif ports. Yemen’s civil war has been a catastrophe for millions of its citizens, dubbed by the United Nations as the world’s worst humanitarian crisis. According to the UN, the war has claimed some 377,000 lives due to both fighting and lack of potable water, hunger and disease.
Rebels attack China's oil pipeline in Myanmar - In what would raise an alarm bell in Beijing a China-backed oil and gas pipeline was damaged when a local resistance group attacked junta forces guarding the energy facility inMyanmar’s Mandalay Region’s Natogyi township on Monday.Natogyi-People’s Defense Force (NPDF) attacked 13 regime personnel, according to a report published by The Irrawaddy, a leading media outlet on Myanmar.The NPDF claimed that the Myanmar military suffered casualties in the attack.The oil and gas pipelines, which run from the Rakhine coast to southern China, were constructed in 2011 and began operation in July 2013.The 973-km pipelines pass through Magwe and Mandalay regions and Shan State to China’s Yunnan Province.Anti-Chinese sentiment has swelled in Myanmar following the military take over last February, with many people believing Beijing had a hand in the takeover. At that time, there were calls for a boycott of Chinese products, along with calls to blow up the pipelines if China refused to condemn the regime, The Irrawaddy reported.The calls prompted China to urge the regime to increase security for the pipelines. Since March last year, the regime has assigned extra forces to protect the pipelines. In May last year, three regime troops guarding the pipelines in Sintgaing Township, Mandalay Region were killed by unidentified attackers.China has urged Myanmar’s civilian National Unity Government to ensure the resistance movement does not harm Chinese investments in the country.The request came after a local resistance group attacked electricity pylons supplying the China-backed Tagaung Taung nickel-processing plant in Sagaing’s Tigyaing Township in early January, according to The Irrawaddy.
Russia Says Some Troops Pulling Back From Ukraine Border, as Diplomatic Solution Sought – WSJ --Russian President Vladimir Putin said Moscow had withdrawn some troops from the Ukrainian border and was open to renewed talks to end a standoff with the West, but President Biden said an invasion remained “distinctly possible.”Mr. Putin’s comments Tuesday were part of a recent string of mixed messages from the Kremlin and capped a day of diplomacy and military maneuvering that left Western leaders unsure of his intentions. Roughly 130,000 heavily armed Russian soldiers remained positioned around Ukraine, and U.S. and European officials said they had seen no evidence of a significant drawdown of forces.Earlier Tuesday, Russia’s Defense Ministry said a relatively small number of troops had completed exercises and were headed back to their bases but emphasized that large-scale maneuvers were continuing across a broad front.At a press conference after a meeting with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, Mr. Putin said, “There is nothing to comment on here. A decision was made to partially withdraw troops.”The Russian leader said Moscow was “ready to follow the negotiation track” but that the implementation of Russian demands, including a halt to expansion of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, are “an unconditional priority for us.” President Biden said later that the U.S. hasn’t verified that Moscow had withdrawn some troops.In remarks from the White House on Tuesday, Mr. Biden stressed that the U.S. wasn’t looking for confrontation with Russia and was hoping for a diplomatic resolution. But he said that if Russia invades Ukraine, the U.S. and allies would respond decisively. And with the prospect of U.S. sanctions looming should Russia invade, he warned Americans that energy prices could be affected. “I will not pretend this will be painless,” Mr. Biden said, adding that the administration is “prepared to deploy all the tools and authority at our disposal to provide relief at the gas pump.”The U.S. president said the U.S. and NATO aren’t a threat to Russia. “We’re not targeting the people of Russia, we do not seek to destabilize Russia,” he said. “To the citizens of Russia: You are not our enemy, and I do not believe you want a bloody destructive war against Ukraine.” Throughout the crisis, NATO has maintained it wouldn’t meet Moscow’s core demand that it bar membership to Ukraine. Under the alliance’s Open Door Policy, membership is open to any European state in a position to advance its principles and contribute to the security of the North Atlantic area.However, speaking to German journalists after his meeting with Mr. Putin, Mr. Scholz reiterated that Western allies don’t expect Ukraine to join the alliance for the foreseeable future, signaling a possible salve to Russia’s security concerns.“There is a fact and this fact is that all participants know that a Ukrainian membership of NATO is not on the agenda,” he said. “That’s why it’s a matter of leadership for all protagonists, in Russia, in Ukraine, in NATO, to ensure that we do not descend into an absurd situation based on something that is not going to be part of global developments in the near future.”Officials in Ukraine and elsewhere voiced skepticism that Russia’s position was softening and said it was unclear what signals Moscow was intending to send.Before Mr. Putin spoke on Tuesday, Russia’s parliament urged Mr. Putin to recognize two Russian-backed separatist republics in eastern Ukraine as independent states. Also Tuesday, the Ukrainian government said a suspected cyberattack had hit the country’s Defense Ministry and two state banks.
Ukraine: Russia aims to ward off NATO in the event of an invasion - As Russian President Vladimir Putin sends mixed signals about his willingness to invade Ukraine, his military continues to undertake activities that appear designed not only to ready an offensive but to thwart any attempt by the United States and NATO to intervene, according to Western officials and analysts. President Biden, who on Tuesday warned that Russian forces around Ukraine now number 150,000 even as Moscow claimed that some of its forces had pulled back, has explicitly ruled out the possibility of deploying U.S. troops to combat an invasion. Such a move, the president has said, would risk another world war. NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg has made similar pronouncements about Western military intervention. Biden says U.S. has not verified a pullback of Russian troops from Ukraine’s border, despite Moscow’s claims The prospect of a large-scale nuclear exercise, the presence of sophisticated air defenses in Belarus and elsewhere, and an array of powerful naval assets spread throughout the Black and Mediterranean seas have underscored to Western capitals just how difficult and dangerous any attempted intervention would be. The Kremlin, said Samuel Charap, a Russia specialist and senior political scientist at the Rand Corp., is looking to “abundantly disincentivize” the alliance even from contemplating coming to Ukraine’s aid militarily. “The way the Russians have thought about this kind of an operation is they have two problems to solve,” he said. “One is the immediate issue of outgunning smaller adversaries along their periphery like Ukraine, and the other is deterring NATO — the U.S., really.” Russian state news media have reported that the country plans to hold its annual strategic nuclear exercises during the first half of this year, earlier than usual. U.S. and European officials have said they expected those drills to begin this month, potentially to coincide with an invasion of Ukraine, but thus far there are no public indications that has happened. A senior Western intelligence official, who like others spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss a sensitive security matter, said that the intent of such an exercise would be to “send a message to the West — that ‘we have strategic capabilities, and if we’re pushed too far, we might use them.’ ”
Ukraine expert: If there is no Russian invasion, Western credibility may be affected --Oleksiy Semeniy, director for the Institute for Global Transformations in Kyiv, on Monday said in an interview that if a Russian invasion of Ukraine does not occur as Western powers have been warning, then the credibility of some governments may be impacted. Appearing on Hill.TV's "Rising," Semeniy pointed out that outlets in Western media have already reported a "fixed" date" of Feb. 15 or 16 as the date of the Russian invasion. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky reported on social media Monday he had been informed that Wednesday will be the date when the Russian invasion begins. He has previously accused Western governments of inflaming the situation and inciting panic. Zelensky's office later said that the president was not being literal in his comments and Wednesday would be a "day of unity." "I hope it will not happen and let's imagine it had not happened. Then automatically, if it had not happened, the automatic question will be to all of the Western leaders — to some extent media or intelligence — 'What the hell?' " Semeniy said. "You actually stated that the invasion will happen. The invasion did not happen, so it will be the issue of credibility," he added. Semeniy said that the absence of an invasion by Russia may actually "provoke" Western powers to want something to happen in order to not "lose face" and maintain credibility. According to Semeniy, the recent rhetoric and predictions of an invasion from the U.S. have likely served to increase the chances of a Russian invasion occurring.
Shelling intensifies in eastern Ukraine amid concern Russia's creating a pretext for an invasion - CBS News — Ukrainian forces and the pro-Russian separatists they're fighting in the country's east reported a second day of increased shelling on Friday, as the leaders of the rebels' self-proclaimed Donetsk and Luhansk People's Republics accused the Ukrainian government of planning an imminent attack. The rebel administrations in the two breakaway regions announced plans to evacuate thousands of civilians into neighboring Russia. Western leaders say an escalation in the fighting in Ukraine's Donbas region — which has simmered for almost eight years — could be part of Russian efforts to create a "false-flag" pretext to invade. "Ukraine is not your enemy, but those who want to defend you against Ukraine are. Do not heed rumours about some offensive operation," Ukraine's defense minister said in a speech Friday. "We have no intentions to conduct any force actions towards the ORDLO (Donbas) or the Crimea. At all. We will move by the political and diplomatic way. Because there are our citizens and we will not put them in danger." The Ukrainian government's reassurance didn't appear to be calming nerves in the rebel-held region, however, with social media photos purporting to show people lining up to take money out of banks. Russian officials seemed to know little about the evacuation plans. Asked if Russia was ready to accept thousands of refugees from Donbas, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters on Friday: "I don't know with whom there were contacts, I don't have information." The reports came as America's defense chief said the United States had still seen no drawdown of the Russian forces massed around Ukraine's borders. The U.S. envoy to the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE), which was meeting in Germany on Friday, said the Russian deployment around Ukraine's borders had actually swelled to between 169,000 and 190,000 troops — the biggest military buildup in Europe since World War II.
Ukraine separatists announce plan to evacuate civilians: Live | Ukraine-Russia crisis News | Al Jazeera - Moscow-backed separatist leaders in conflict-hit eastern Ukraine have announced they will evacuate civilians to Russia as fears of a major escalation in fighting grow. Friday’s announcement by the heads of the self-proclaimed Luhansk People’s Republic (LPR) and Donetsk People’s Republic (DPR) came after the rebels and Ukraine’s government traded fresh accusations of shelling and other ceasefire violations in the Donbas region.Meanwhile, Western powers continued to voice alarm over Moscow’s massing of more than 100,000 troops around Ukraine’s borders.The United States and its allies have warned Russia may be attempting to manufacture a “pretext” for an attack on its neighbour by deliberately inflaming the conflict in Donbas.US Vice President Kamala Harris told Baltic leaders that Washington is considering reinforcing their states militarily as the crisis grows, Lithuanian President Gitanas Nauseda has said.“We were told that yes, at this moment they are discussing the question of reinforcing the Baltic States, because the threats require an answer both within the NATO format, and from our ally United States,” Nauseda said in a video statement from Munich. “I think the decisions will come soon. I hope our defence ministers will be able to discuss the details in Vilnius.”
Sirens wail in southeast Ukraine as civilians told to evacuate pro-Russian Donbas region - Leaders of the pro-Russian “people’s republics” in the Donbas region of southeastern Ukraine ordered an evacuation of the civilians living in the areas under control on Friday. The separatist leaders said a Ukrainian army assault was imminent, while Western leaders continued to warn that it was Russia that was preparing for war against its neighbour. Denis Pushilin, head of the self-declared Donetsk People’s Republic, declared in a video address that women, children, and the elderly would be evacuated to the nearby Rostov region of Russia. Shortly after the announcement, air raid sirens screamed through the city of Donetsk, which had a population of 900,000 before the outbreak of fighting in the region eight years ago. Meanwhile, Russian President Vladimir Putin further ramped up tensions with the announcement that he will personally oversee snap readiness exercises involving his country’s nuclear arsenal on Saturday. Mr. Putin also appeared to brace Russians for the possibility that their country could soon face tough economic sanctions – which the West has vowed to use only if Russia sends troops into Ukraine. The evacuation orders in Donetsk and Luhansk came shortly after Russia’s official TASS news service reported that pro-Russian fighters had killed two Polish-speaking saboteurs that had planned to blow up cylinders of chlorine in the separatist-controlled city of Horlivka. Mr. Pushilin said Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky was about to order a military assault on Donetsk and Luhansk, something Ukrainian officials have repeatedly denied.Western officials have repeatedly warned that the Kremlin could be preparing a false-flag operation in Donbas to justify a preplanned attack on Ukraine. Russia, for its part, has said it has no plans to invade Ukraine. At a press conference in Moscow alongside Belarusian dictator Alexander Lukashenko, Mr. Putin said there was “rising tension in Donbas” and called on Mr. Zelensky to de-escalate the situation by holding direct talks with the leaders of the breakaway regions. Both Mr. Zelensky and his predecessor, Petro Poroshenko, have refused to negotiate directly with the militia leaders, insisting instead on talks with the Kremlin as the de facto ruler of the breakaway regions.
Ukrainian rebels evacuate civilians to Russia amid crisis (AP) — Spiking tensions in eastern Ukraine on Friday aggravated Western fears of a Russian invasion and a new war in Europe, with a humanitarian convoy hit by shelling and pro-Russian rebels evacuating civilians from the conflict zone. A car bombing hit the eastern city of Donetsk, but no casualties were reported.The Kremlin declared massive nuclear drills to flex its military muscle, and President Vladimir Putin pledged to protect Russia’s national interests against what it sees as encroaching Western threats. U.S. and European leaders, meanwhile, grasped for ways to keep the peace and Europe’s post-Cold War security order.While Putin held out the possibility of diplomacy, a cascade of developments this week have have further exacerbated East-West tensions and fueled war worries. This week’s actions have fed those concerns: U.S. and European officials, focused on an estimated 150,000 Russian troops posted around Ukraine’s borders, warn the long-simmering separatist conflict in eastern Ukraine could provide the spark for a broader attack.Vice President Kamala Harris said the U.S. still hopes Russia will de-escalate but is ready to hit it with tough sanctions in case of an attack. U.S. leaders this week issued their most dire warnings yet that Moscow could order an invasion of Ukraine any day.
Multiple loud explosions heard in centre of rebel-held city in eastern Ukraine - (Reuters) - Multiple explosions could be heard late on Saturday and early on Sunday in the centre of the separatist-controlled city of Donetsk in eastern Ukraine, a Reuters reporter said. The origin of the explosions was not clear. There was no immediate comment from separatist authorities or from Kyiv.
Almost 2,000 ceasefire violations logged in eastern Ukraine -diplomatic source - (Reuters) - Almost 2,000 ceasefire violations were registered in eastern Ukraine by monitors for the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe on Saturday, a diplomatic source told Reuters on Sunday. Ukrainian government and separatist forces have been fighting in eastern Ukraine since 2014. An upsurge in shelling has thrust the region to the centre of tensions between Moscow and the West over a Russian military buildup near Ukraine.
Peasants Marginalized by Big Farms - A recent Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) study shows the largest farms cultivate a high and increasing share of agricultural land in much of the world. World Agricultural Census data for 129 countries show about 40% of the world’s farmland is operated by farms over 1000 hectares (ha) in size. About 70% is operated by the top 1% of farms, all bigger than 50 ha each.A rising share of farmland is in larger farms. But farm sizes in developed and developing countries seem quite different. Farms smaller than 5 ha accounted for 63% of land in low and lower middle-income countries. But such farms covered only 8% of farmland in upper middle and high-income countries. The “share of farmland farmed on the largest holdings has increased in … several European countries (France, Germany and the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland) and in the United States of America.” Similarly, in recent decades, more land in many Latin American and sub-Saharan African countries is in larger farms.Agricultural censuses typically rely on land records, usually neither up to date nor complete. Large farms often have land registered to different persons and entities, typically to avoid taxes and bypass land ownership ceilings and regulations.Government surveys in India have not comprehensively covered large farms, understating inequality. Other data from India suggest the top fifth of farms account for 83% of land.Even where large farms are legally recognized as commercial entities, land is often held via subsidiaries in complex arrangements. For such reasons, the extent of concentration is probably greater than what the study suggests.Despite its limitations, the study findings are ominous. Changing inequalities in farmland ownership and cultivation have reduced the smallholder or peasant share of food production. The study suggests that ‘land grabs’, new laws and policies have enabled large (capitalist) farmers, agribusiness corporations and other commercial entities to control most of the world’s farmland.
Cryptocurrencies akin to Ponzi schemes, says RBI deputy (Reuters) - Cryptocurrencies are akin to Ponzi schemes or even worse and banning these is the most sensible option for India, the Reserve Bank of India's deputy govenor said on Monday. "We have also seen that cryptocurrencies are not amenable to definition as a currency, asset or commodity; they have no underlying cash flows, they have no intrinsic value; that they are akin to Ponzi schemes, and may be even be worse," T. Rabi Sankar said in a speech. "All these factors lead to the conclusion that banning cryptocurrency is perhaps the most advisable choice open to India." India's central bank chief last week delivered a stark warning against investing in cryptocurrencies, saying they lacked the underlying value of even a tulip - in a reference to a speculative bubble that gripped the Netherlands in the 17th century.
Intolerant India - IN THE YEAR 2002, India’s Ministry of Tourism launched the campaign “Incredible India.” Central to the campaign were advertisements that evoked India as the stuff of the West’s orientalized imagination. There was the color (often depicted by flying pieces of cloth), the history (always a dancing silhouette in an archway), the flavors (shot of spices and flower garlands), and so on. The Taj Mahal usually made an appearance. A more apt slogan for the country that exists today would be “Intolerant India.” As the New York Times, the Los Angeles Times, and other news outlets have noted, an unabashed Hindu nationalism is now carrying out organized campaigns meant to single out and persecute Indian Muslims. (Only Indonesia and Pakistan have larger Muslim populations.) Last December, a meeting of a Dharma Sansad (“Religious Parliament”) told Hindus to turn India into a Hindu state by exterminating Muslims, an act that was not condemned by Prime Minister Modi. That last bit is not surprising; Modi has championed laws like the Citizenship Amendment Act, which introduced a religious qualification for citizenship that discriminates against Muslims. In the state of Uttar Pradesh, Chief Minister “Yogi Adityanath” (a name he has chosen for himself) is in step with Modi, with a record of hateful statements, such as: “If one Hindu girl marries a Muslim man, then we will take one hundred Muslim girls in return. . . . If they kill one Hindu man, then we will kill one hundred Muslim men.”That statement shines light on how misogyny, Islamophobia, and toxic masculinity are all tied up together in the devolution of India from a democracy to a tyrannical majoritarian state, where the humiliation of Muslims is just part of the political landscape. It was perhaps exhaustion and disgust at this ugly India that motivated the actions of one girl, Muskan Khan, a student of a college in the Indian state of Karnataka. A now viral video shows Muskan arriving at her school’s premises dressed in a black burka. As soon as she arrives, a mob of Hindu students sporting saffron scarves (a form of religious insignia newly popularized by Hindu nationalists on India’s campuses) begin to heckle her. The undaunted Muskan bears the jeering of the crowd of men and then raises her fist and says, “Allahu Akbar,” an Arabic invocation that simply means “God is Great.” She barely makes it inside the building as the mob is held back by school officials.
Banks get protesters’ names as Canada financial squeeze unfolds - Canada’s national police service is sending to banks the names of people involved in protests that have paralyzed the nation’s capital, a first concrete step in the financial crackdown on demonstrators. The Canadian Bankers Association confirmed the Royal Canadian Mounted Police has provided a list to the banks. The banks are still seeking clarity from law enforcement on how to handle the alleged protesters’ accounts, according to people familiar with the matter. But Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland said some accounts have already been frozen. Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s government invoked an emergency law on Monday to try to end protests that have occupied the streets of Ottawa for nearly three weeks and resulted in the closing of border crossings.
Historic Rotterdam bridge to be cut up to make way for Bezos’ mega-yacht - As millions suffer and die in the COVID-19 pandemic, the De Hef’ (Koningshafenbrug) bridge in the Dutch city of Rotterdam is to be partially dismantled this summer to let Jeff Bezos’ US$485 million mega-yacht exit the harbour where it was built and sail into the open sea. The De Hef’ bridge is considered the first of its kind in Western Europe. A historical landmark and symbol of Rotterdam’s industrialisation in the 19th century, the bridge was heretofore protected by strict preservation laws. It was originally built in 1878 as a swing bridge, connecting industrial rail traffic from the North to that of the South of the Netherlands. It was damaged by a German steamship that ran into it in 1918, and the bridge underwent reconstruction, replacing the swing with a lift bridge by 1927. Thirteen years later, during the German occupation of the Netherlands in World War II and the “Rotterdam Blitz” bombing to crush resistance fighters, the bridge was heavily damaged. However, it was one of the first objects in Rotterdam to be restored after the war due to its strategic importance. Bezos’s giant yacht, named Y712, is 127 meters in length and has three decks and three 40-meter-high masts that are now being built at a shipyard in Alblasserdam, a port-city adjunct to Rotterdam. To go from an inland dock to the North Sea, this unprecedentedly large yacht must pass under De Hef. According to reports in the international press, the municipality of Rotterdam has given the green light to dismantle the centre portion of the bridge so the gigantic vessel can sail through. News outlets in the Netherlands and internationally have reported on the vast popular discontent this has provoked internationally, with mounting anger to the naked servility of the entire economic and political establishment bowing to the individual whims of a single multibillionaire. On a Dutch Facebook group “ Eieren gooien naar superjacht Jeff Bezos ” (Throwing eggs at superyacht Jeff Bezos), the fast-growing group has gathered over 8,000 members in less than a week. The Facebook group is calling for an event on June 1 to throw rotten eggs at Bezos’s yacht as it bypasses De Hef. The founder of the group, Pablo Strörmann, told nltimes.nl: “Normally it’s the other way around. If your ship doesn’t fit under a bridge, you make it smaller. But when you happen to be the richest person on Earth, you just ask a municipality to dismantle a monument.”
Pupils in Germany go on strike against herd immunity policies -On Friday, some 150 students in Frankfurt am Main took a clear stand against the profits-before-lives policy of the federal and state governments in the coronavirus pandemic. Several local groups of the youth organisation “Fridays for the Future” called a demonstration under the slogan #WirWerdenLaut (#We’reGettingLoud). Students from across the region took part in the strike, marching from the Alte Oper through the city centre to City Hall. On Twitter, the organisers declared: “We demand that the deliberate mass infection in schools be stopped! Coronavirus policy in schools can’t go on like this!” Reporters spoke to participants about a statement from the International Youth and Students for Social Equality (IYSSE) supporting the protests and school strikes for safe education. In it, the IYSSE calls for the formation of independent rank-and-file committees of students and educators to take the struggle into their own hands and demand the immediate implementation of necessary safety measures. This includes an immediate end to the government’s “herd immunity plan,” combined with comprehensive measures to protect students from COVID, and investments in education. Elli, a student at Frankfurt’s Musterschule secondary school, warmly welcomed the IYSSE statement: The measures at schools are not enough to fight the pandemic. It would be best to send everyone home for a few weeks until the situation calms down. I myself contracted COVID-19 just over a fortnight ago—and at school, despite strictly following all measures and keeping my distance. Although 40 students and three teachers were recently sick or quarantined at the same time, the school was leaving testing to the students’ own initiative, she said.
Increasing COVID cases on UK university campuses as all restrictions lifted -- The Department for Education (DfE) has changed the operational guidance within higher education as a main plank towards eliminating all remaining COVID restrictions, in line with the “herd immunity” agenda of the Conservative government. A January 19 DfE document specified, “With the removal of the Plan B measures, HE providers should note that there are no COVID restrictions that apply to Higher Education, and they should ensure that they deliver face-to-face teaching without restrictions”. Ominously, it continued, “Risk assessments should never be used to prevent providers delivering the full programme of face-to-face teaching and learning that they were providing before the pandemic”. In other words, no matter how many students and staff are exposed to the risk of contracting a debilitating disease and potentially dying, nothing is being allowed to stand in the way of the universities being fully operational. The guidance is being imposed even as scientists warn of the likelihood of major outbreaks of COVID-19 on campuses. Emeritus Professor of Applied Statistics at the Open University Kevin McConway noted that the number of booster shots among the student population is low, as many only became eligible in January. The TES (Times Higher Education) reported January 14, “The most detailed Office for National Statistics (ONS) data available—which indicated that one in every 15 people in their late teens or early twenties in London was infected with COVID in early December—offered the most helpful guide to infection levels in the student cohort, Professor McConway said.” McConway cautioned against returning to in-person classes: “Given the spike in infections in freshers week last year, the considerably higher rates of infection in the relevant age groups in the country now compared to then, and the fact that Omicron is so much easier to transmit, I think the risk of major outbreaks in universities as students go back for next term is considerable.” The rise in infection will also slow down the adoption of vaccines even more, as booster appointments are delayed by at least 28 days if someone has a positive test, ensuring students will continue getting ill in large numbers for the foreseeable future.
UK police commander responsible for current drug policy accused of using LSD, pot - A British police commander who created the Metropolitan Police's current drug strategy has been accused of using illicit drugs, including LSD and hallucinogenic mushrooms. As The Guardian reported on Monday, a gross misconduct hearing was told that commander Julian Bennett had taken drugs while on vacation in France. Bennett had previously overseen the termination of two other officers for drug misuse. The drug use allegedly took place between February 2019 and July 2020. Bennett, who has served on the force for around 45 years, has been suspended with full pay since July 2021.
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