week ending Mar 12

The Fed Expects a Soft Landing. Don't Count on It. --- In Congressional testimony on March 2, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said that “it is more likely than not” that the central bank “can achieve what we call a soft landing” in the economy. In other words, he believes that the Fed can raise interest rates enough to get raging inflation under control without forcing the economy into a recession. The odds that Powell can pull that off are getting longer by the day. History shows that when the central bank increases rates, a recession is almost assured. The Fed’s 12 rate-raising campaigns since the early 1950s resulted in 11 recessions, with the only exception coming in the early 1990s. What makes the Fed’s job extra hard now is that the inflation rate is so high. “To the extent that inflation comes in higher or is more persistently high than that, we would be prepared to move more aggressively by raising the federal funds rate by more than 25 basis points at a meeting or meetings,” Powell told lawmakers. Increasing the odds of a recession this time is the Fed’s plan to reduce the almost $9 trillion of assets on its balance sheet after it stops buying U.S. Treasury and mortgage-backed securities this month. Those assets have risen $4.8 trillion since the pandemic commenced in early 2020. Powell said the reduction will be conducted “in a predictable manner,” largely through letting obligations it owns mature rather than outright sales. Nevertheless, this is a big reversal from the $140 billion in asset purchases it had been making each month to support the economy through the pandemic. Another sure sign of a recession is an inversion of the so-called yield curve, which happens when the interest rate on the 2-year Treasury note rises above that on the 10-year note. An inversion makes it unprofitable for banks and other financial institutions that borrow through deposits and other short-term markets while lending at longer maturities. That restrains lending and thereby depresses business activity. At present, the 2-year yield is 1.53%, still lower than 1.84% 10-year note yield, but the spread has narrowed from 1.07 percentage points on Dec. 31 to just spx0.27 point. The Fed is between a rock and a hard place. If it backs off tightening monetary policy, it risks persistent inflation, spurring buyers of goods to expect more of the same, so they buy ahead of need.The result is pressure on inventories and production capacity, leading to further price hikes. That confirms expectations and induces more pre-buying, generating a self-feeding inflationary spiral. Such was the case in the late 1960s and 1970s.

There's more inflation coming, as the Federal Reserve starts raising interest rates -- Inflation is showing no signs of letting up, as the Federal Reserve gets ready to raise rates.February's consumer price index was up 7.9% year over year, the hottest since January 1982 and just above a Dow Jones estimate of 7.8%. The gain was due to broad-based price jumps in areas of basic needs for consumers — food, fuel and shelter — and it comes as the war between Russia and Ukraine rages on, continuing to drive energy prices higher. Some economists expect inflation to rise even more going forward.But, even with the uncertainty surrounding the war, the Fed is expected to move forward with its first rate hike next week in a bid to curb inflation before it becomes too entrenched. The Fed took its fed funds target rate to zero in early 2020 to fight the pandemic.However, the central bank also faces the risk that higher interest rates and high inflation — particularly from energy prices — could create a drag on growth. That means the central bank could have to slow the pace of hiking to prevent a recession.Economists expect the Fed will raise interest rates as many as seven times this year. In the futures market, traders were betting Thursday on about six quarter-point hikes for the year. That could change once investors see what Fed officials forecast for interest rates, when they release their latest economic projections at the end of their policy meeting Wednesday afternoon. The Fed's first rate hike is expected to be a quarter-point, or 25 basis points. Each basis point equals 0.01 of a percentage point. "25 basis points next week seems just about a lock," Wells Fargo director of rates strategy Michael Schumacher said. "The Fed's in a tough spot. It's getting tougher by the day. It's hard any time, but especially when you've got incredible inflation, and we've had the supply chain issues for a while, and now they've been exacerbated by Russia-Ukraine."The closely watched U.S. 10-year Treasury yield rose to 2% on Thursday. That yield is important since it influences mortgages and other consumer and business loans. At the same time, stocks sold off."You're not seeing the typical risk off reaction. Equities are driven by Ukraine worries, and bonds are driven by inflation and Fed expectations," Schumacher said. Bond yields move opposite price.

 Inflation Targeting Constrains Development - All too many developing countries have been persuaded or required to prioritize inflation targeting (IT) in their monetary policy. By doing so, they have tied their own hands instead of adopting bolder economic policies for growth, jobs and sustainable development. IT refers to monetary policy efforts to keep the inflation rate within a certain low range. Many countries – developed and developing – have adopted this policy priority following New Zealand’s 1989 lead, arbitrarily aiming to keep inflation under 2%.Initially, developing economies adopted IT after crises to get financial support from the International Monetary Fund (IMF), e.g., after the 1997-98 Asian financial crisis. From the mid-1970s, many had borrowed heavily to accelerate growth. After the US Fed raised interest rates sharply from 1980, many succumbed to debt crises.The IMF insisted on severe short-term stabilization policies to keep inflation and debt low. The World Bank complemented it with medium-term structural adjustment policies demanding market liberalization and other reforms.Price stabilization policies to keep inflation low have been an IMF priority since. But instead of accelerating growth, as promised, IT has actually slowed it. Yet, developing countries have jumped on the IT bandwagon – 25 had formally adopted IT by 2020, while most others strive to keep inflation very low.Most believe that inflation is the greatest threat to the economy and growth. Many presume inflation creates uncertainty, causing resource misallocation. All this is said to retard growth – meaning fewer jobs, less tax revenue and lasting poverty.Higher prices hurt by reducing purchasing power, especially harming wage-earners. On the contrary, price stability – implying low and steady inflation – is believed to be more conducive to ensuring growth and prosperity.Another core IT belief is that money only temporarily affects growth, but permanently affects prices. IT advocates believe central bankers should mainly strive for price stability – not employment or growth. They usually presume independent central banks are better at doing so.Many central bankers and economists dogmatically believe – without evidence – that tightly reining in inflation actually spurs growth. Acknowledging developing countries are more prone to external and supply shocks, the IMF recommended targets of up to 5% – higher than developed countries’ 2%.Most developing countries aspiring to become emerging market economies have formally adopted IT – e.g., South Africa’s 3–6% or India’s 2–6%. By setting successively lower short-term inflation targets, they believe financial markets are impressed. But by doing so, they prevent themselves from realizing their full economic potential. Striving to emulate the developed countries’ 2% target constrains both growth and structural transformation. After all, it was quite arbitrarily set for no economic reason, except the NZ finance minister liking the ‘0 to 2 by ’92’ slogan!

Raskin’s nomination takes a hit as Manchin backs separate Fed votes -Sarah Bloom Raskin’s nomination to be Federal Reserve vice chair of supervision has taken another hit as key Senate Democrat Joe Manchin suggested President Biden’s other four central bank nominees move forward without her. Senate Republicans have refused to show up for a Banking Committee vote to move the five nominees to the floor amid concerns about Raskin. Manchin, who is not on the banking panel but is a crucial vote in the evenly divided Senate, wants the committee to vote on the other nominees, his spokesperson Sam Runyon confirmed. “If they’re willing to move four out of five? Take it and run with it. It’s a win,” Manchin said in an interview with Politico. “I’ll take a win anytime I get it.”

The real threat to the Federal Reserve - Throughout the nomination process for President Biden’s picks for the Federal Reserve Board, there have been numerous charges about various threats each nominee supposedly poses to the Fed, its mission and mandates. But none of the nominees – Jerome Powell for chair, Lael Brainard for vice chair, Sarah Bloom Raskin for vice chair for supervision and Lisa Cook and Philip Jefferson for governors – pose a threat anywhere near as significant as the Senate allies of the oil and gas industry. Those allies – most prominently the Republican members of the Senate Banking Committee – are now boycotting any vote on the nominees ostensibly because they want more information from Raskin, who, if confirmed, would become the most powerful banking regulator in the U.S. Remarkably, although the Fed and the vice chair for supervision regulate bank holding companies such as JP Morgan Chase, Goldman Sachs, Citibank and others, those banks are not opposing the nominees.Rather, the Republicans are doing all of this because of claims, made by the fossil fuel industry, its allies and others, that Raskin poses a threat to the Fed’s independence. They claim she would politicize the Fed by going outside what they claim are its narrow mandates and consider risks related to climate. They say that will result in the Fedengaging in “capital allocation” decisions, “chocking off” capital to a particular industry and thereby “picking winners and losers.”But while Raskin’s opponents have correctly identified the threat, they have misidentified the source: It’s not Raskin who poses a threat to the Fed’s independence, mission and mandate, but those accusing her of doing so.There is no dispute that the Fed’s mandates include promoting banks’ safety and soundness as well as financial stability. All also agree that the Fed’s vice chair for supervision position was created after the 2008 global financial crash in the Dodd-Frank Act specifically to oversee the supervision and regulation of banks, which was widely viewed as grossly deficient before the crash. Those mandates require the Fed to independently identify, assess and mitigate risks to safety and soundness and financial stability regardless of origin or source. That is supposed to be done regardless of – indeed, despite – political preferences anyone may have, including powerful senators. That’s what it means for the Fed to be independent: It alone makes decisions on risk. That is the linchpin to safety and soundness as well as to preventing financial crashes.It is also the foundation for the Fed’s independence, and that is what is being directly threatened by the fossil fuel industry and its allies: They are using political pressure to try to get the Fed to disregard risks related to climate. Importantly, the risks arising from climate change and the need for the Fed to address them are well-known and widely recognized on a bipartisan and global basis. For example, Fed Chair Powell and former Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Randal Quarles, both Republicans, along with Wall Street's biggest banks, numerous financial industry leaders and many others agree that climate change poses serious risks to the financial system. That is the overwhelming mainstream consensus. Nevertheless, the fossil fuel industry and its allies, including many Senate Republicans, are trying to get the Fed to create a special exemption for any risks arising from the fossil fuel industry. They are, in effect, insisting on a de facto prohibition on the Fed from even looking at risks to the financial system arising from climate. By doing so, senators are trying to pick winners and losers and engage in capital allocation decisions. Of course, if that were successful, many other industries would quickly lobby senators to pressure financial regulatory nominees to exclude risks from their activities.

U.S. yields holds above 2% on Fed rate hike view (Reuters) - The benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury yield edged higher on Friday, with expectations largely set that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates next week, while comments from Russian President Vladimir Putin briefly buoyed risk-on sentiment.Yields moved higher after Putin said there had been some progress in Moscow's talks with Ukraine, but provided no details, citing "certain positive shifts."U.S. President Joe Biden banned the U.S. import of Russian vodka, seafood and diamonds on Friday, and joined other Group of Seven (G7) leaders in calling for the revocation of Russia's "most favored nation" trade status, which would let G7 nations raise tariffs and set quotas on Russian products.Economic data on Thursday that showed a surge in consumer prices in February to their largest annual increase in 40 years locked in views that the Fed will hike rates at its next policy announcement on March 16.Expectations of at least a 25 basis point hike at the March Fed meeting stood at 95.9%, according to CME's FedWatch Tool. The yield on 10-year Treasury notes US10YT=RR was up 1.4 basis points at 2.008%. U.S. consumer sentiment fell to its lowest level in nearly 11 years, according to the University of Michigan, while one-year inflation expectations climbed to their highest level since 1981.The 10-year yield is up more than 26 basis points this week, putting it on track for its biggest weekly climb since September 2019.Economic data expected on Friday includes the preliminary March reading of consumer sentiment from the University of Michigan, which also includes inflation expectations.The yield on the 30-year Treasury bond US30YT=RR was slightly lower at 2.372%.A closely watched part of the U.S. Treasury yield curve measuring the gap between yields on two- and 10-year Treasury notes US2US10=RR , seen as an indicator of economic expectations, was at 25.4 basis points after flattening to 18.47 earlier in the week.The two-year US2YT=RR U.S. Treasury yield, which typically moves in step with interest rate expectations, was up 3.3 basis points at 1.752%.The breakeven rate on five-year U.S. Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) US5YTIP=RR was last at 3.489%, after closing at 3.382% on Thursday, near its record high of 3.402% set on Tuesday, according to Refinitiv data.The 10-year TIPS breakeven rate US10YTIP=RR was last at 2.976%, indicating the market sees inflation averaging nearly 3% a year for the next decade.The U.S. dollar 5 years forward inflation-linked swap USIL5YF5Y=R , seen by some as a better gauge of inflation expectations due to possible distortions caused by the Fed's quantitative easing, was last at 2.698%.

Six High Frequency Indicators for the Economy -- These indicators are mostly for travel and entertainment. The TSA is providing daily travel numbers. This data is as of March7th.This data shows the 7-day average of daily total traveler throughput from the TSA for 2019 (Light Blue), 2020 (Black), 2021 (Blue) and 2022 (Red). The 7-day average is down 15.2% from the same day in 2019 (84.8% of 2019). (Dashed line) The second graph shows the 7-day average of the year-over-year change in diners as tabulated by OpenTable for the US and several selected cities. This data is updated through March 5, 2022. This data is "a sample of restaurants on the OpenTable network across all channels: online reservations, phone reservations, and walk-ins. The 7-day average for the US is down 5% compared to 2019. This data shows domestic box office for each week and the median for the years 2016 through 2019 (dashed light blue). The data is from BoxOfficeMojo through March 3rd. Movie ticket sales were at $80 million last week, down about 55% from the median for the week. This graph shows the seasonal pattern for the hotel occupancy rate using the four-week average. The red line is for 2022, black is 2020, blue is the median, and dashed light blue is for 2021. This data is through February 26th. The occupancy rate was down 4.7% compared to the same week in 2019. The 4-week average of the occupancy rate is below the median rate for the previous 20 years (Blue). This graph is from Apple mobility. From Apple: "This data is generated by counting the number of requests made to Apple Maps for directions in select countries/regions, sub-regions, and cities." This data is through March 4th for the United States and several selected cities. The graph is the running 7-day average to remove the impact of weekends. All data is relative to January 13, 2020. This data is NOT Seasonally Adjusted. According to the Apple data directions requests, public transit in the 7-day average for the US is at 113% of the January 2020 level. Here is some interesting data on New York subway usage This graph shows how much MTA traffic has recovered in each borough (Graph starts at first week in January 2020 and 100 = 2019 average). Manhattan is at about 37% of normal. This data is through Friday, March 4th.

Analysts warn of recession if oil prices continue to surge further into 'uncharted territory' - The U.S. ban on Russian oil could exacerbate already-spiking oil and food prices, analysts warned, and that could set off a recession if escalated further. If Russia retaliates by refusing to supply Europe with oil, that could "easily" send oil prices up another $20 to $30 per barrel, said Andy Lipow, president of Lipow Oil Associates. Moscow previously threatened to cut Europe off from its gas supplies if Western countries targeted its energy sector. After President Joe Biden announced a ban on Russian fossil imports Tuesday, U.S. crude traded above $128 per barrel, while Brent jumped above $130 before paring gains. The U.K. and European Union also said they would phase out Russian fossil fuels. Prices had already been soaring in recent weeks, surging to highs not seen since 2008. "My greatest fear is that these prices have risen so fast that you cause a recession in Europe and Latin America, that rolls on into the United States, that ultimately affects China's ability to sell consumer goods to the rest of the world," he told CNBC's "Squawk Box Asia" on Wednesday. Russia supplies 11% of global oil consumption, 17% of global gas consumption and as much as 40% of Western European gas consumption as of 2021, according to statistics from Goldman Sachs. In a worst case scenario, a complete ban on Russian energy imports in all major consuming countries would "severely reduce and disrupt energy supply," sending prices further into "uncharted territory," wrote Caroline Bain, chief commodities economist at Capital Economics. "Inflation in advanced economies would end the year at around 5% as opposed to the 2.4% we forecast prior to the invasion, and the effects of the drop in households' spending power and power rationing in Europe would push the euro-zone into recession," Bain wrote in a Monday note.

America Shoots Its Own Dollar Empire in Economic Attack on Russia --Empires often follow the course of a Greek tragedy, bringing about precisely the fate that they sought to avoid. That certainly is the case with the American Empire as it dismantles itself in not-so-slow motion.The basic of assumption of economic and diplomatic forecasting is that every country will act in its own self-interest. Such reasoning is of no help in today’s world. Observers across the political spectrum are using phrases like “shooting themselves in their own foot” to describe U.S. diplomatic confrontation with Russia and allies alike.For more than a generation the most prominent U.S. diplomats have warned about what they thought would represent the ultimate external threat: an alliance of Russia and China dominating Eurasia. America’s economic sanctions and military confrontation has driven them together, and is driving other countries into their emerging Eurasian orbit.American economic and financial power was expected to avert this fate. During the half-century since the United States went off gold in 1971, the world’s central banks have operated on the dollar standard, holding their international monetary reserves in the form of U.S. Treasury securities, U.S. bank deposits and U.S. stocks and bonds. The resulting Treasury-bill standard has enabled America to finance its foreign military spending and support its deindustrialization-driven chronic trade deficits by creating dollar IOUs that other countries accept. U.S. balance-of-payments deficits end up in the central banks of payments-surplus countries as their reserves, while Global South debtors need dollars to pay their bondholders and conduct their foreign trade.This monetary privilege – dollar seignorage – has enabled U.S. diplomacy to impose neoliberal policies on the rest of the world, without having to use much military force of its own except to grab Middle Eastern oil.The recent escalation of U.S. sanctions blocking Europe, Asia and other countries from trade and investment with Russia, Iran and China has imposed enormous opportunity costs – the cost of lost opportunities – on U.S. allies. And the recent confiscation of the gold and foreign reserves of Venezuela, Afghanistan and now Russia, along the targeted grabbing of bank accounts of wealthy foreigners (hoping to win their hearts and minds, along with recovery of their sequestered accounts), has ended the idea that dollar holdings or those in its sterling and euro NATO satellites are a safe investment haven when world economic conditions become shaky.So I am somewhat chagrined as I watch the speed at which this U.S.-centered financialized system has de-dollarized over the span of just a year or two. The basic theme of my Super Imperialism has been how, for the past fifty years, the U.S. Treasury-bill standard has channeled foreign savings to U.S. financial markets and banks, giving dollar diplomacy a free ride. I thought that de-dollarization would be led by China and Russia moving to take control of their economies to avoid the kind of financial polarization that is imposing austerity on the United States.[1]But U.S. officials are forcing them to overcome whatever hesitancy they had to de-dollarize. I had expected that the end of the dollarized imperial economy would come about by other countries breaking away. But that is not what has happened. U.S. diplomats themselves have chosen to end international dollarization themselves, while helping Russia build up its own means of self-reliant agricultural and industrial production.

Biden's plan to shield families from inflation relies on Build Back Better that the Senate hasn't been able to pass - President Joe Biden tried to assuage Americans' concerns about high inflation in his State of the Union address last Tuesday, while seeking to boost low ratings for how he's handled the economy.Since there's not too much a president can do unilaterally to combat inflation, Biden laid out several proposals to help families contend with rising prices. He pitched measures to reduce the cost of prescription drugs, energy and child care. He also touched on extending generous Affordable Care Act subsidies, providing more affordable housing, creating a universal pre-K program and expanding long-term care."My plan to fight inflation will lower your costs and lower the deficit," said Biden.His strategy, however, has one major problem: Biden already pushed for all these measures -- and more -- in his $1.75 trillion Build Back Better package. But Democratic Sen. Joe Manchin of West Virginia effectively put the bill on ice in December when he said he couldn't support it, partly because he was concerned it would exacerbate the spike in inflation.Manchin was none too impressed with the measures Biden outlined on Tuesday, signaling that he doesn't buy the argument they'll bring relief to struggling families."Inflation is the biggest thing on my mind in West Virginia," Manchin told CNN. "I've never found you lower costs by spending money." Asked if he still considers the bill dead, Manchin replied, "There might be parts they want to talk about. I don't know. That was just too far."The Build Back Better proposal was not initially intended to fight inflation: It focused on expanding the social safety net, reducing income inequality and combating climate change.In fact, many economists said the package could modestly add to inflation in the short term. But Biden framed the proposals he highlighted as lowering Americans' costs so they can better weather rising prices.He cited the high price of prescriptions drugs, particularly insulin. It costs $10 to make insulin, but drug companies charge up to 30 times that amount, Biden said.The President called for capping the cost of insulin at $35 a month, noting the drug companies will still make profits. He also reiterated his support for allowing Medicare to negotiate drug prices. Also, he touted that families would save an average of $500 a year by combating climate change through provisions such as tax credits to weatherize Americans' homes and businesses and to buy electric vehicles, which would save drivers $80 a month because they wouldn't have to buy gas.And Biden pushed his proposal to limit child care costs for many working and middle class American families. They would pay no more than 7% of their income for care for their young kids.

Democrats are assembling a reworked Build Back Better Bill, hoping to persuade Manchin to back it as an anti-inflation measure -- Democrats are working on a revised version of the Build Back Better bill which they hope can win over a key senator.Sen. Joe Manchin, a Democrat from West Virginia, tanked the original $2.75 trillion package in late 2021, appearing to kill off a crucial part of President Joe Biden's agenda.Given the 50-50 split in the US Senate, every Democrat needs to support a measure for it to be able to pass.Manchin made clear he thought that the spending package was excessive, prompting a furious response from progressive Democrats and a slapdown from the White House.NBC News reported on Monday that Democrats and White House officials were working together to rebrand the package as a way to help families struggling with rising inflation in the US, an aim also touted by Manchin.They hope the renewed focus could persuade him to back a less expensive version of the package.According to initial reports, the reshaped bill does not include measures like child tax credits, which many Democrats approved of but Manchin opposed.In a letter to Democratic senators on Monday, Majority Leader Chuck Schumer listed some features of the new package."In reconciliation, Senate Democrats have introduced additional legislative proposals to lower the rising cost of energy, prescription drugs and health care, and the costs of raising a family," he said, describing the bill as a bid to tackle "rising costs."The rebrand appears to be an attempt to placate Manchin, who cited the risk of worsening inflation as the reason he could not support the earlier Build Back Better proposal.Politico reported last week that negotiations were also underway Democratic leaders and Manchin over what a revised bill might look like.Per the report, Manchin's priorities were lowering the government deficit and introducing some new federal programs, providing they were permanently funded. Manchin told Politico that he wanted the federal government to increase revenue by reforming taxes and lowering prescription-drug prices.Extra cash, he said, could be split between paying off the deficit and some new federal programs addressing climate change and social care. The new bill could meet with opposition both in the Senate and the House even with Manchin's support.Sen. Kyrsten Sinema of Arizona, another Democratic Senator opposed to large new spending packages, has long opposed tax rises. Progressive Democrats in the House were also enraged by Manchin killing off the first proposal, and may not be willing to engage with a new effort shaped by his priorities.

Dems Drop COVID-19 Funds, Clear Way for OK of Ukraine Aid (AP) — Democratic leaders abruptly abandoned plans for a fresh infusion of $15.6 billion for battling the COVID pandemic on Wednesday, clearing the way for House debate and passage of a vast government spending bill that is anchored by aid for Ukraine and European allies. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., announced that the COVID-19 spending would be removed from the package after rank-and-file lawmakers objected that it would be paid for, in part, by cutting previously approved pandemic assistance to their states. “We must proceed” with the government-wide $1.5 trillion legislation because of the urgency of helping Ukraine and the bill’s spending for other programs, Pelosi wrote in a letter to colleagues. “It is heartbreaking to remove the COVID funding, and we must continue to fight for urgently needed COVID assistance, but unfortunately that will not be included in this bill,” she said. While Democrats had insisted on including the pandemic money in the sprawling, bipartisan legislation, Republicans demanded it be paid for with cuts elsewhere. After hours of talks, Pelosi relented to Democratic lawmakers who were refusing to let the measure move forward unless the earlier funds their states were supposed to receive were protected. It was unclear whether Congress will be able to revive the dropped COVID-19 funds — which were largely aimed at providing more vaccines, treatments and tests — in future legislation. For now, the confrontation stood as a remarkable rank-and-file rebellion that succeeded in eliminating pandemic spending that leading Democrats, including Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., had said was a top priority. The money countering the Russian blitzkrieg t hat's devastated parts of Ukraine and triggered that continent's biggest refugee exodus since World War II ensured that the overall bill would ultimately pass with robust support from both parties. President Joe Biden requested $10 billion for the military, humanitarian and economic aid last week, and backing in Congress was so staunch that the figure grew to $13.6 billion in just days. “The people of Ukraine are courageously standing up for freedom,” Rep. Jim McGovern, D-Mass., said as debate began. “Congress, the Biden administration and the people of the United States must stand with them.” Party leaders planned to whip the 2,741-page measure through the House on Wednesday and the Senate by week’s end, though that chamber's exact timing was unclear.

Ukraine aid included in new $1.5 trillion spending package - Congressional Democrats and Republicans on Wednesday finalized a roughly $1.5 trillion measure that would provision massive funding increases for key federal health, science, education and defense programs, setting in motion a bipartisan push to stave off a looming government shutdown set to occur at the end of the week.The release of the sweeping spending package, known in congressional parlance as an omnibus, put to end a tumultuous few months of bipartisan negotiations on Capitol Hill. It opened the door for the House to vote as soon as Wednesday on the measure, which lawmakers have used as the vehicle to advance roughly $14 billion in new humanitarian, military and economic assistance for Ukraine.But the chamber’s attempts to take swift action quickly ran into an unexpected snag, after a group of Democrats objected to the way that the bill sourced roughly $15 billion in new coronavirus aid from an existing stimulus fund set aside for state governments. The money would help augment existing initiatives to deliver tests, treatments and vaccines, a party priority, at the expense of states that had been anticipating a federal windfall under a law enacted last year. Left-leaning progressive lawmakers, and some from Midwestern states, privately signaled to House leadership that they could object to proceeding with the debate unless the bill is revised, according to two people familiar with the matter who requested anonymity to describe the discussions. State governors’ offices similarly began calling around the Capitol, one of the sources said. The standoff left the House floor paralyzed, stuck on a procedural motion on a day when Democrats had intended to travel to Philadelphia for a party retreat.House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) appeared to acknowledge the disagreement in a letter to Democratic lawmakers later in the morning, noting that negotiators had held at bay additional GOP attempts to claw back aid for local governments. In doing so, she affirmed the plan to hold a vote later Wednesday, stressing the package would “strengthen our national security, bolster our economic prosperity and advance our shared democratic values.”The total, $1.5 trillion initiative still reflected a tectonic shift in Washington, which under President Biden had been operating under a series of temporary spending patches that generally had frozen the federal government at older funding levels. It meant the White House could not achieve its grandest ambitions to boost federal programs, including those that aid low-income families and respond to public health crises, despite issuing a budget last year that called for rejuvenating these efforts. Now, federal domestic spending is set to be funded at a level of $730 billion for the remainder of this fiscal year, an amount lawmakers described Wednesday as the largest such increase in nondefense money in four years. Agencies including the Department of Health and Human Services, the Department of Labor and the Department of Education each saw significant boosts to their budgets under the bipartisan compromise.Some of the spending increases, particularly at the Department of Transportation, are set to enable the Biden administration to carry out portions of its signature infrastructure package improving the nation’s roads, bridges, pipes, ports and Internet connections. The bipartisan law, enacted last year, has suffered from early delays as a result of congressional infighting over funding.Other boosts aim to remedy long-known deficiencies in Washington. Lawmakers included new money and authority for the Food and Drug Administration, for example, so that it could regulate electronic cigarettes. And members of Congress proposed to award $12.6 billion to the Internal Revenue Service, amounting to a $675 million increase from the prior fiscal year. That totaled the largest such raise the tax agency has seen in more than two decades, as Democrats and Republicans raced to augment its work to process millions of unresolved tax returnsand other correspondence. With it, lawmakers agreed to deliver additional sums to the Pentagon, with defense funding levels slated to rise to $742 billion under the bill. The new money arrived after Republicans fought vigorously to bolster national security in recent months, defying calls from some Democrats, who had hoped to use their narrow yet powerful majorities in Congress pursue long-sought cuts at the Pentagon.

House to vote on Ukraine aid in government funding bill - The U.S. House plans to vote Wednesday on legislation that would fund the government through September and send nearly $14 billion in aid to Ukraine as it struggles to fend off an invasion by Russia. Congress has to pass a spending bill by Friday to prevent a government shutdown. To give the Senate enough time to vote on it, the House plans to pass a second bill to extend current funding through Tuesday. The chamber ran into roadblocks Wednesday as Democratic leaders were forced to scrap $15.6 billion in coronavirus relief funds from the larger $1.5 trillion legislation. An impasse over the money delayed a planned vote by hours. "We must proceed with the omnibus today, which includes emergency funding for Ukraine and urgent funding to meet the needs of America's families," House Speaker Nancy Pelosi wrote to House Democrats. "It is heartbreaking to remove the COVID funding, and we must continue to fight for urgently needed COVID assistance, but unfortunately that will not be included in this bill." House Appropriations Committee Chair Rosa DeLauro, D-Conn., introduced a separate coronavirus aid bill later Wednesday. DeLauro in a statement said the House would vote on the $15.6 billion plan Wednesday. The last-minute change followed weeks of talks that led to a deal on the spending bill. Democrats and Republicans had to settle disputes over how much to hike spending on domestic programs and the military — a debate that evolved after Russia attacked Ukraine last month. The legislation is expected to pass with support from both parties once the dispute over pandemic aid is resolved. Republican Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell backs the funding bill and said he would urge his caucus to vote for it. The Biden administration also supports the plan. Congress for years has used short-term spending bills to dodge shutdowns with last-minute votes. Funding lapses can lead to furloughs of federal workers, disruptions to government services and broad economic damage. Both parties also want to prevent a shutdown to avoid an appearance of dysfunction as the U.S. takes a leading role in the international effort to hamstring Russia's economy and bolster Ukraine's defenses. The new spending bill fits into the broader U.S. strategy in Ukraine. The $13.6 billion set aside for the conflict would fund aid for displaced Ukrainians, equipment for the country's military and U.S. troop deployments to neighboring nations. Biden's Office of Management and Budget said the money would allow the U.S. "to respond quickly and efficiently to the emerging and evolving needs in Ukraine, across the region, and around the world."

House prepares to vote on $1.5 trillion omnibus spending package, with $13.6 billion in Ukraine aid - The House is moving closer to a vote Wednesday on a $1.5 trillion omnibus spending bill to keep the federal government open and provide $13.6 billion in aid forUkraine and Eastern European countries, while $15.6 billion for the response to COVID-19 fell by the wayside as Democrats worked to pass the legislation. The legislation, which is more than 2,700 pages, is the culmination of months of bicameral and bipartisan negotiations between top Democratic and Republican appropriators. Thedetails of the package, which funds federal agencies for the remainder of the fiscal year, were released early Wednesday, ahead of the Friday deadline for Congress to pass legislation to avert a partial government shutdown.A dispute over how to pay for the COVID-related provisions prompted House Speaker Nancy Pelosi to remove the pandemic money from the bill Wednesday afternoon, a move she called "heartbreaking." Republicans had demanded the $15.6 billion be offset by cuts elsewhere, and Democratic leaders agreed to cover half the cost by using leftover money from previous pandemic aid. But that earned objections from some Democratic members, who said their states already had plans to spend the funds. "This has been quite a day," Pelosi told reporters at the beginning of a press conference Wednesday afternoon. The speaker bristled at the press for focusing multiple questions on the internal deliberative legislative process, while Ukraine says Russia has bombed a maternity and children's hospital. To alleviate a potential time crunch in the Senate, the House was also poised to vote on a short-term continuing resolution that would keep government agencies running through March 15 if the omnibus spending bill does not get to President Biden's desk before the end of the week. The legislation includes $730 billion in nondefense spending, a 6.7% increase over fiscal year 2021, which Democratic Senator Patrick Leahy, head of the Senate Appropriations Committee, said is the "largest increase in four years." It also provides $782 billion in defense spending, a 5.6% increase over last year. Senator Richard Shelby, the top Republican on the Appropriations panel, said during the course of negotiations on the deal that he "insisted upon dollar-for-dollar parity for defense and non-defense increases."

House passes funding bill to provide aid to Ukraine, avert government shutdown — The House passed a massive spending bill Wednesday night to fund the federal government through September and provide nearly $14 billion in aid for Ukraine. The $1.5 trillion bipartisan bill, which now heads to the Senate, is the culmination of months of negotiations on Capitol Hill that included a prolonged stalemate between Democrats and Republicans. The nearly $13.6 billion devoted to Ukraine includes $6.5 billion for the Defense Department, with $3.5 billion to replenish equipment sent to Ukraine and $3 billion for U.S. troops who are helping to defend NATO in Europe. The bill would also provide money for humanitarian aid, to support Ukraine's energy grid and to combat disinformation. The spending bill originally was slated to allocate $15.6 billion for the Covid pandemic response domestically and abroad. But that funding was cut after the bill ran into trouble. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., said in a letter Wednesday that Covid funding would be removed, blaming Republicans for depriving Americans of “urgently needed” COVID assistance. “It is heartbreaking to remove the Covid funding, and we must continue to fight for urgently needed Covid assistance, but unfortunately that will not be included in this bill,” she said. The overall spending measure, which funds the government through Sept. 30, would provide increases to both defense and non-defense programs over 2021 levels. Democrats were unable to repeal the Hyde Amendment, a decades-old policy that prohibits federal programs like Medicaid from paying for abortions. House Appropriations Committee Chairwoman Rosa DeLauro, D-Conn., said in a statement early Wednesday that the measure would lower the cost of living for families and create American jobs. "During this time of great uncertainty and change, we are tackling some of our nation’s biggest challenges, including making health care more affordable, confronting the climate crisis, and protecting our national security," she said. Sen. Richard Shelby, R-Ala., ranking member on the Senate Appropriations Committee, said in a statement that the bill excludes "partisan poison pills" and highlighted the boost to defense spending. "It also provides critically needed emergency assistance for our allies that are resisting Russian aggression in Ukraine without decreasing base defense funding by a single dollar," he said. Democratic and Republican lawmakers have been eager to send billions of dollars in military and humanitarian aid to Ukraine as Washington and the European Union continue to punish Russian President Vladimir Putin and his allies with crippling sanctions. The Biden administration initially asked for $6.4 billion in emergency funding for Ukraine, which Russia invaded on Feb. 24. Last week, the White House requested a $10 billion package that would pay for humanitarian, security and economic assistance for Ukraine and central European allies “due to Russia’s unjustified and unprovoked invasion,” Shalanda Young, the acting White House budget director, wrote in a letter to congressional leaders.

House passes sweeping $1.5 trillion omnibus spending bill The House passed a sweeping $1.5 trillion omnibus spending package on Wednesday night to fund the government, hours after lawmakers scrapped billions in funding to combat the COVID-19 pandemic amid resistance from Democrats upset about plans to yank already allocated relief from states. The last-minute revolt over the COVID-19 funding from Democrats angered over a GOP-demanded offset upended a delicately negotiated package between congressional leaders of both parties. As part of those bipartisan negotiations, the House passage of the omnibus package, which funds the federal government through September, was split in two votes so that lawmakers could register specific support for the defense spending portions. The House first voted 361-69 to back funding for the Pentagon, Department of Homeland Security and other national security priorities and then 260-171, with one Democrat (Rep. Rashida Tlaib (Mich.)) voting "present," to adopt the provisions largely related to domestic programs. Congress faces a time crunch to get the legislation to President Biden for his signature since current federal funding expires this Friday. Lawmakers also passed a stopgap measure by voice vote that lasts until Tuesday to ensure that the Senate has enough time to clear the omnibus package without risking a government shutdown. The omnibus package includes about $14 billion in emergency funding to boost humanitarian, security and economic assistance for Ukraine and central European allies in response to the Russian invasion — as lawmakers on both sides of the push for more support to Ukraine. The legislation was delayed for several hours after a number of Democrats came out against plans to repurpose previously allocated COVID-19 funds from state governments to help finance federal pandemic response efforts. “I’m not going to tolerate that. If they can pull that out, we might be able to move forward,” Rep. Brenda Lawrence (D-Mich.) said before the bill moved to the floor, while noting that her state would be affected by the plans. Negotiators included more than $15 billion in COVID-19 supplemental funding in an earlier version of the package unveiled at 1:30 a.m. Wednesday, after the White House last week called on lawmakers to authorize $22.5 billion to bolster federal coronavirus efforts. A White House official warned Wednesday that there will be “dire” consequences from stripping the COVID-19 aid it requested from the package. “Without additional COVID response resources, the results are dire: In March, testing capacity will decline; in April, the uninsured fund — which offers coverage of testing and treatments for tens of millions of Americans who lack health insurance — will run out of money; and in May, America’s supply of monoclonal antibodies will run out. Simply put, failing to take action now will have severe consequences for the American people,” the White House official said. Plans for new COVID-19 funding were met with fierce opposition from Republicans, who, in turn, demanded the spending be paid for and pressed for further information on relief that had already been allocated and gone unspent. Some top Republicans indicated more openness to the supplemental funding after the Senate leaders signaled the aid would be offset through previously appropriated funds earlier this week. The push also came amid mounting pressure on both sides of the aisle to wrap up months of negotiations over spending, as lawmakers eyed the omnibus as a vehicle for emergency funding for Ukraine. But a number of House Democrats fumed Wednesday morning after learning of the language making it into the 2,741-page bill text that reflected plans to pull previously allocated coronavirus relief, shortly before they were scheduled to vote on it before leaving town. “This deal was cut behind closed doors. Members found out this morning, this is completely unacceptable,” said Rep. Angie Craig (D-Minn.), whose state is among the dozens that would be impacted by the plans, told reporters after leaving Pelosi’s office earlier on Wednesday. Rep. Pramila Jayapal (D-Wash.) told The Hill on Wednesday that some progressives were also upset by the plans, in addition to defense funding boosts outlined in the omnibus that exceeded President Biden’s request for the operations. “A lot of us continued to be horrified that we just keep increasing military spending even beyond what President Biden asked for, which was already an increase,” Jayapal said. “And so I think you will see some progressive votes against the defense part of the question.” “​Why is it that we can create new money for defense spending, but when it comes to investing in our communities, the only way Congress can make a deal is by taking that same life saving American Rescue Plan money away from our communities?” Rep. Cori Bush (D-Mo.), another progressive, said in a statement. “We cannot turn our backs on the progress this money is intended to fund.” In lieu of including the COVID-19 funding in the omnibus package, Democratic leaders plan to set up a standalone vote next week on that funding without the controversial offset from state and local relief funds.

Senate gets deal for quick vote on funding, Ukraine aid - The Senate has locked in a deal to quickly pass a massive government funding bill that includes $13.6 billion in Ukraine aid. The agreement, announced by Senate Majority Leader Charles Schumer (D-N.Y.), puts the funding bill on a glide path to pass on Thursday night, capping off hours of would-they-won’t-they drama. The Senate’s passage will come less than two days after the House unveiled the $1.5 trillion government funding bill, which also includes the Ukraine money. The Senate will also need to pass a days-long continuing resolution to help buy time to get the mammoth bill to President Biden but hasn’t yet locked in an agreement to have that vote. Schumer’s announcement is a U-turn from earlier Thursday evening, when the mammoth bill appeared to have hit a last-minute snag. Senators and aides say the holdup was coming from Sen. Dan Sullivan (R-Alaska) and was tied to an unspecified concern with the reauthorization of the Violence Against Women Act (VAWA), which is included in the funding bill. “There had been some very last-minute edits that he had wanted to try to include,” said Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska) about Sullivan’s concern with the VAWA language. “I think we’re working on a path. ... There are other things you can do later,” Murkowski said. A Democratic aide confirmed that Sullivan’s concern was related to the VAWA provision. Senate Majority Whip Dick Durbin (D-Ill.) said that leaders were working with Sullivan. A spokesperson for Sullivan indicated that the GOP senator wanted to read the legislation. “As he said before and has told other Senators, his focus has been on the ability to do the appropriate due diligence before voting on the bill,” the spokesperson said. Durbin joined Sen. Joni Ernst (R-Iowa), Murkowski and Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D-Calif.) to announce the bipartisan deal at a press conference in February. It wasn’t until this week that leaders publicly revealed the reauthorization would be included in the wider omnibus package. If passed, it would mark the first time in nearly a decade that VAWA has been reauthorized. Its last authorization lapsed after lawmakers failed to renew it in 2019. The holdup with Sullivan comes after congressional leaders spent hours Thursday working out other GOP snags involving a handful of Republican senators who wanted an amendment vote. Sen. Rick Scott (R-Fla.) led a group of conservative senators earlier Thursday to try to get a vote on a standalone Ukraine aid bill. But that effort was blocked by Sen. Jon Tester (D-Mont.), who warned that separating it from the omnibus would slow it down. The House has already left town for the week and would need to pass the stand-alone bill before it could go to Biden. Ultimately, Republicans are getting votes as part of the agreement one from Sen. Mike Braun (R-Ind.), one from Sen. Mike Lee (R-Utah) and one from Sen. John Kennedy (R-La.). Braun’s amendment would strip earmarks out of the bill. Kennedy wants to provide $2.5 billion in disaster relief to Louisiana and Lee wants to defund Biden vaccine mandates for medical workers, military personnel, federal employees and federal contractors.

Senate passes biggest-ever US military budget with unanimous Democratic support - On Thursday, in a bipartisan 68-31 vote, the US Senate passed the $1.5 trillion omnibus spending package that will fund the government through September 30 of this year. The bitter partisan warfare that is blamed for blocking any measures to defend democratic rights, address the COVID-19 health catastrophe, or provide relief for working families devastated by unemployment and raging inflation dissolved when it came to giving the US war machine a massive increase. With the Biden administration and congressional Democrats leading the way, the current anti-Russia hysteria was used to push through a budget that underscores the growing risk of nuclear war. The omnibus bill allocates $782 billion to the military as well as $13.6 billion in “emergency aid” to Ukraine, of which $6.5 billion is earmarked for military assistance. At the same time, it omits nearly $16 billion in promised new spending for anti-COVID vaccines, drugs, testing and related public health measures. The Senate easily overcame the 60-vote filibuster threshold and approved the bill less than 24 hours after its passage by the House of Representatives. The $782 billion allocated for the Pentagon is roughly $42 billion more than last year’s total and some $37 billion more than the Biden administration initially requested. The figure is also $52 billion more than the $730 billion earmarked for non-defense spending. As part of the Pentagon budget, roughly $10.6 billion will be spent on purchasing and “modernizing” 85 F-35 aircraft, while another $2.9 billion is allocated for the ongoing development of a new Air Force stealth nuclear bomber, the B-21. An additional $1 billion is provided for Israel’s Iron Dome missile defense system, allowing the apartheid state to continue offensive military operations against the Palestinian people. In a short address Friday morning, Biden hailed the quick passage of the bill, boasting of the “additional $13.6 billion in new assistance” to the neo-Nazi-infested Ukrainian military. In his remarks and on social media later, Biden said he looked forward to signing the legislation “immediately.” Not a single Democratic senator voted against the bill. The fake “socialist” Bernie Sanders and Massachusetts “progressive” Elizabeth Warren joined with far-right Republicans such as South Carolina’s Lindsey Graham to frame passage of the war budget as necessary to counter the authoritarian government of Vladimir Putin. Defending the additional funding for the Ukrainian military on Tuesday, Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer declared it was necessary to “give the brave Ukrainian fighting forces… the arms they need.” He continued, “Whether it be Javelins or Stingers [anti-tank and anti-aircraft missiles] or anything else .” (Emphasis added) Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, one of 17 Republicans senators to vote for the bill, said Republicans should take credit for making sure “this deal gets the job done for our armed forces.” The Senate received the bill from the House on Thursday after it was quickly passed by the lower chamber. On Wednesday, the House held separate votes on the military spending provisions and the non-military spending provisions. This was a maneuver to allow so-called “progressives” such as New York Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Minnesota Representative Ilhan Omar to vote against the military spending portion in the knowledge that their votes were not needed to secure its passage. The first vote, on military spending, passed 361-69, with only 15 Democrats and 54 Republicans voting “no.” In a closer vote, the domestic funding portion passed 260-171, with 221 Democrats (Rashida Tlaib abstained) and 39 Republicans voting in support. After both parts had passed, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi stripped out the COVID-19 funding and sent the combined measure to the Senate for debate. The collapse in COVID-19 funding, even as over 9,000 Americans succumbed to the virus last week alone, comes amid the ongoing spread of the highly infectious BA.2 variant of Omicron internationally and within the US. White House Press Secretary Jen Psaki spelled out on Thursday what the lack of COVID-19 funding will mean in the near future: “Testing capacity... will decline this month. In April, free testing and treatments for tens of million of Americans without health insurance will end. In May, America’s supply of monoclonal antibodies will run out.”

Winners and losers in the $1.5T spending omnibus - Congressional leaders from both parties were quick to say that the sweeping omnibus spending package that passed the House last night was filled with trade-offs intended to ensure it can make it to the president’s desk.And at more than 2,700 pages, the appropriations package contains many winners and losers in what could be the largest spending bill Congress passes this year. Here’s an E&E News look at the fallout. Winners:

• Senate Republicans: Senate Republicans, led by their top appropriator, Sen. Richard Shelby of Alabama, for months insisted they would not back a spending package unless it contained parity between defense and domestic spending. Democrats and the White House had argued for large increases for domestic agencies, like EPA and the Interior Department, and wanted Pentagon spending in check after years of rapid growth. The final deal was far closer to the GOP’s goal of parity: $782 billion for defense, a 5.6 percent increase, and $730 billion for domestic spending, a 6.7 percent increase.
• PFAS cleanup: Congress has grown increasingly concerned about carcinogenic per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances found at military bases and the budget is a high-water mark for investing in their cleanup. Defense portions of the bill would provide $210 million for cleanup targeting two chemicals, PFOA and PFOS, at military sites where firefighting foam has left widespread pollution. The bill would also allot $150 million for PFOA and PFOS contamination cleanup through the Military Construction-Veterans Affairs portion of the bill.
• DOE labs: The omnibus deal would provide $7.5 billion, an increase of $449 million above fiscal 2021 levels and $35 million above the request for overseeing the labs. It was the largest increase for any single DOE office.
• Earmarks: The bill contains about $10 billion in congressionally directed spending projects. Congress banned earmarking for more than a decade amid a series of scandals, but lawmakers resurrected them with new disclosure requirements and strict limits on who could receive them.
• Civilian Climate Corps: The spending package would allocate roughly $20 million for the green jobs training and placement program that would put young people to work on projects intended to mitigate the climate crisis. While the concept has been around for years — it’s modeled after the successful New Deal-era program known as the Civilian Conservation Corps — the new climate corps framework gained prominence during the 2020 presidential election campaign.'

Losers

• Civilian Climate Corps: The omnibus will only spend around $20 million to help get the CCC off the ground. In comparison, the House-passed Interior funding bill for fiscal 2022 would have spent $101 million, while Senate appropriators were at one point proposing a $120 million investment. Biden initially asked Congress to approve a $10 billion allocation for the CCC, while Markey and Ocasio-Cortez were clamoring for something closer to $120 billion. Republicans have derided it as an unnecessary federal jobs program and argued the conservation work could be done by the private sector.
• Environmental groups: Green groups, like the League of Conservation Voters, donated tens of millions to Democrats in recent years to put Joe Biden in the White House and their majorities in the House and Senate.But the omnibus is not the spending plan they wanted.Greens had hoped for major increases for EPA after years of cuts or flat funding under Trump, but only got 3 percent, while policy riders they favored to expand environmental rules were largely dropped from the deal. Environmental groups, often quick to praise administration efforts on the climate and conservation work, were largely silent when the package surfaced. Those that spoke slammed the bill.
• International climate aid: Biden may have put the United State back in the Paris climate accord, but Congress isn’t paying for a major international climate effort.The bill recommends $1.5 billion for the State Department to help address the climate crisis but doesn’t include money for the Green Climate Fund. Earlier, House and Senate Democratic proposals had proposed at least $1.45 billion for what would have been a first-ever direct appropriation for the program.
• House Democrats: House Democratic leaders badly handled the release of the omnibus, forcing them to drop pandemic funding relief. Pandemic aid was dropped after Democratic lawmakers from dozens of states objected that the aid would be funded by clawing back unused Covid-19 funding previously designated to those states. Republicans had insisted that the spending be partially offset. Many House Democrats were caught off-guard when the bill was released in the middle of the night by party leaders and said they were not looped into closed-door talks beforehand. In turn, they provided a rare rebuff to Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) who in turn removed the aid from the omnibus.

White House weighs Russian oil import ban amid growing bipartisan call from Congress - The White House said Friday that it is weighing a ban on imports of Russian oil, amid growing calls in Congress to act. While imported Russian crude makes up only a small fraction of the U.S. oil market, the move could have broader implications for energy prices if countries in Europe and elsewhere adopted similar sanctions. Biden administration officials have been debating how to respond to bipartisan calls for retaliation against Russia for its invasion of Ukraine without driving up the already-soaring cost of oil, which will in turn boost gas prices. White House press secretary Jen Psaki told reporters Friday that the administration is “considering a range of options” but does not want to disrupt the global energy supply or increase gasoline prices.“What we know is that, you know, from the U.S. economy, we don’t import a lot of Russian oil, but we are looking at options that we can take right now if we were to cut the U.S. consumption of Russian energy,” Psaki said. “But what’s really most important is that we maintain a steady supply of global energy.”On March 4, Russia seized Europe’s largest nuclear plant after fighting sparked a fire and Vladimir Putin called for a “normalization” of global relations. (Jason Aldag/The Washington Post)She later added that “certainly the rising price of oil and the impact on gas prices is one we are focused on.”The administration will not try to block other countries from buying Russian oil through sanctions, according to a White House official who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss internal deliberations. Instead, this staffer added, officials are exploring how to limit what the United States would buy from Russia. At the moment, many international oil traders are shying away from buying Russian oil. One said that prices were $25 to $30 a barrel lower for Russian oil than for comparable grades of oil from other countries. That gap could grow if Russia runs out of oil tanker space. However, even the discounted price remained very high Friday as the price of the benchmark Brent crude closed at more than $118 a barrel.

Blinken says White House discussing prospect of a Russian oil ban as pleas increase - U.S. leaders showed increasing support for a ban on Russian oil imports on Sunday, indicating what could be a step forward in heeding one of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s pleas, as the invasion of his country continues. Zelenskyy on Saturday spoke with members of Congress, asking for actions to knee-cap Russia and aid the Ukrainian resistance to Vladimir Putin’s attacks. Though White House leaders initially appeared resistant to one of his major asks — sanctions on Russian oil imports — the U.S. secretary of State on Sunday morning struck a less averse tone. He said he spoke with the president and other Cabinet officials on “exactly this subject” the day prior. “We are now talking to our European partners and allies to look in a coordinated way at the prospect of banning the import of Russian oil, while making sure that there is still an appropriate supply of oil on world markets,” Secretary of State Antony Blinken said on CNN’s “State of the Union.” “That’s a very active discussion as we speak.” Previously, White House press secretary Jen Psaki had told reporters Friday that the administration was looking at actions to cut U.S. consumption of energy from Moscow, but added that the White House was “very focused on minimizing the impact to families” and expressed concern that a ban could raise gas prices. Blinken’s Sunday remarks come amid growing support on the left and right for sanctions on oil from Moscow. Sen. Chris Murphy (D-Conn.) said on “Fox News Sunday” that he “would support” cutting off Russian oil to the U.S., but added that he “would much rather” take this action alongside European allies. Across the aisle, Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.) made the case for banning Kremlin oil on CNN’s “State of the Union,” saying that American dependence on Russian oil gives Putin leverage over the United States. “We should not allow Vladimir Putin to have the power at any moment to raise gas prices on Americans by cutting us off at some point now or in the future,” Rubio said. “So, we should cut him off now and replace it with American oil and have a buffer in between the time that that production starts up and the time that we make the cutoff. And we can use our strategic reserves for that. That’s what I hope we will do.” Sen. Joni Ernst (R-Iowa), too, argued on “Fox News Sunday” that it would be better to ramp up energy production in the U.S. to avoid depending on Putin for oil. On NBC’s “Meet the Press,” Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.), a key moderate in his party, said it’s “basically foolish” for the U.S. to buy oil from Moscow, giving Russia profit it could use in its attacks on Ukraine. “We have the ability to ratchet up and be able to backfill,” Manchin said. “We have the energy, we have the resources here. And we have the technology. We’re a million barrels short a day right now that we could just ramp up like that.

As Ukraine War Intensifies, Pressure Mounts on Biden to Ban Imports of Russian Oil -President Biden faced increasing pressure on Monday to ban imports of oil from Russia following its invasion of Ukraine and the deepening turmoil in eastern Europe. The U.S. president is reportedly considering such a move but carefully weighing it against the likely impact it would have on global crude prices and, by extension, the cost of gasoline for American consumers. Even before the Ukraine war started nearly two weeks ago, energy prices were soaring amid constrained global supplies, driving the U.S. inflation rate to a 40-year high in January. Russia is the world’s third-largest oil producer after the United States and Saudi Arabia. Brent crude prices, the international benchmark, topped $120/bbl in Monday trading – up more than 50% since the start of the year. Even absent a U.S. ban, Russian oil exports could plunge by 1.0 million b/d from the indirect impact of broader economic sanctions and voluntary exits by major energy companies, said Rystad Energy CEO Jarand Rystad. Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates “have spare capacity to replace these supplies but may not act immediately,” he added. Rystad also noted that the United States and allied countries have pledged to release strategic oil reserves of 60 million bbl. Still, that would only offset lost Russian exports for a short stretch, and it would take months more for U.S. shale producers to ramp up notably to help fuel global needs. U.S. output has been flat early this year around 11.6 million b/d. Meanwhile, major producers that partner with Saudi Arabia and make up OPEC-plus have vowed to increase output by 400,000 b/d this year. OPEC members claim to have even more capacity, but aging infrastructure and geopolitical strife have prevented the cartel from reaching targets so far. This calls into question their ability to address any Russian-created challenges. “The net impact is that oil prices are likely to continue to climb – potentially beyond $130/bbl,” Rystad said. On its own, the impact of a U.S. ban would be minimal, only impacting about 100,000 b/d of crude exports from Russia. However, if the United States were able to galvanize European leaders to participate in the embargo, the continent would be blocking about 3.8 million b/d of Russian crude imports, according to Rystad. That noted, the firm said, an outright European Union ban on Russian oil looked unlikely on Monday, given several EU countries’ dependence on the fuel.

House, Senate trade leaders propose Russian energy ban --The Democratic and Republican leaders of the two congressional committees covering trade policy reached a deal Monday on a bill to ban energy imports and suspend normal trade relations with Russia and Belarus. The chairmen and ranking members of the House Ways and Means Committee and Senate Finance Committee said in a Monday statement they would soon introduce a bill to ban imports of Russian energy products. The bill would also give President Biden authority to boost tariffs and impose other trade barriers for goods from Russia and Belarus, require the White House to advocate for Russia’s removal from the World Trade Organization and oppose Belarus joining the organization. “Taking these actions will send a clear message to Putin that his war is unacceptable and the United States stands firmly with our NATO allies,” said House Ways and Means Committee Chairman Richard Neal (D-Mass.), Ways and Means ranking member Rep. Kevin Brady (R-Texas), Senate Finance Committee Chairman Ron Wyden (D-Ore.) and Finance ranking member Sen. Mike Crapo (R-Idaho) in a statement. “While Congress needs to do more, as the congressional leaders with jurisdiction over our nation’s trade policy, we are committed to using the tools at our disposal to stop Russia’s unconscionable and unjust war on Ukraine and to hold Belarus accountable for its involvement." Biden is under growing pressure from lawmakers and leaders in both parties to ban Russian energy imports and target a major source of wealth for the Kremlin. While Russia’s economy has already begun to crumble under sanctions imposed by the U.S. and allies, its oil and gas sector has been largely exempted from the penalties. On The Money — Biden faces pressure to ban Russian oil Overnight Energy & Environment — Biden pushes to curb truck pollution American and European leaders have tried to avoid any sanctions that would cause oil and natural gas prices to spike after a year of steep increases. European Union nations depend heavily on Russian oil and natural gas imports, and rising demand for U.S. energy products would boost prices within the states as well. But the White House has opened the door to a ban on Russian energy imports amid growing bipartisan pressure and an unrelenting assault on Ukraine from the Russian army. White House press secretary Jen Psaki told reporters “no decision has been made” on whether to ban Russian oil imports. Biden spoke with French President Emmanuel Macron, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and U.K. Prime Minister Boris Johnson earlier Wednesday in a video call, the White House said, where the leaders “affirmed their determination to continue raising the costs on Russia for its unprovoked and unjustified invasion of Ukraine.”

Biden announces U.S. to ban Russian oil imports - President Joe Biden announced Tuesday that the U.S. will target "the main artery of Russia's economy" by banning the import of Russian energy products. "We're banning all imports of Russian oil and gas and energy," Biden said in remarks from the White House. "That means Russian oil will no longer be acceptable at U.S. ports and the American people will deal another powerful blow to Putin's war machine." The president warned that the move would probably increase gas prices in the U.S., but that it was necessary to ramp up sanctions pressure on Russia's economy for its war on Ukraine. “Putin's war is already hurting American families at the gas pump," Biden said. "I’m going to do everything I can to minimize Putin's price hike here at home.” Biden's language clearly anticipated a concerted Republican effort to blame him directly for the rise in gas prices, which hit a record in the U.S. on Tuesday. With gas prices certain to become a huge political issue in this year's midterm elections, Biden devoted much of his remarks to focusing American anger directly on Putin, while also encouraging U.S. energy companies to produce more domestic oil. The president said the U.S. had made the decision to ban Russian energy products "in close consultation" with allies around the world, particularly in Europe. He said many of those partners may not be able to take the same action. "The United States produces far more oil domestically than all of Europe," said Biden, who said the U.S. is a net exporter of energy. "We can take this step when others cannot, but we're working closely with Europe and our partners to develop a long-term strategy to reduce their dependence on Russian energy as well."

Russian oil import ban could slow economy, spur U.S. oil lending --— President Biden announced a ban on the importation of Russian oil and gas Tuesday morning, a move that will have an unpredictable impact on banking, global markets and American consumers.The United States “is targeting the main artery of Russia's economy. We're banning all imports of Russian oil and gas and energy," Biden said. "That means Russian oil will no longer be acceptable to U.S. ports, and the American people will deal another powerful blow to Putin's war machine.” Two weeks after the U.S. and its allies unleashed a raft of economic sanctions against the Russian Federation following President Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine, Russian oil and gas exports were among the last remaining tethers between Russia and the global economy — and the highest-profile target for escalated sanctions.

Congressional pressure eases on Russian energy import ban - Lawmakers from both parties cheered President Biden’s announced ban of Russian energy imports yesterday, but House leaders nevertheless vowed to press forward with a bipartisan import ban of their own. Senate Democrats, meanwhile, seems content to punt on the issue. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) said her chamber would hold a vote on legislation from the Ways and Means Committee that would impose an import ban while also directing a review of Russia’s participation in the World Trade Organization. “The Congress commends the President for announcing action to stop the import of Russian energy products into the United States — which we will support by passing strong, bipartisan legislation to that effect today,” Pelosi said in a “Dear Colleague” letter sent around noon yesterday. A vote on the bill, H.R. 6968, was originally expected last night, but according to a Democratic leadership aide, Republican opposition to moving the legislation through a fast-track process prevented its quick consideration.Biden said yesterday his decision to block imports was another in a line of administration efforts to sanction Russian President Vladimir Putin for his invasion of Ukraine (Greenwire, March 8). The administration had previously indicated opposition to a ban, but congressional pressure seems to have played an important role. When asked what the likely impact of the decision will be for average Americans at the pump, Biden told reporters gas prices “are going to go up.”

House passes bill banning Russian oil imports, authorizing sanctions - The House passed legislation on Wednesday to ban imports of Russian oil and authorize further sanctions, following a similar executive order from President Biden. Lawmakers passed the bill on a bipartisan basis, 414-17. Only 15 Republicans and two Democrats voted against the bill. The vote now puts members of both parties on record backing an action that is likely to further increase gas prices, which are already reaching record levels in the U.S. due to the Russian invasion of Ukraine. As of Wednesday, the average price of regular gas was $4.25 a gallon, up about 60 cents from just a week ago. Just a month ago, the average price was $3.47. The vote to ban imports of Russian energy products is effectively symbolic, since it follows President Biden’s move on Tuesday to target one of Russia’s main sources of wealth. But it highlighted a rare area of bipartisan unity between Democrats and Republicans. Aside from banning the import of Russian oil, the legislation also sought to limit Russia’s access to the World Trade Organization (WTO) and reauthorized legislation that enabled sanctions on human rights abusers. But it stopped short of an original bipartisan agreement earlier this week crafted by the leaders of congressional committees with jurisdiction over trade policy. That proposal would have suspended normal trade relations with Russia and Belarus. Members of both parties have been pushing for such punitive measures for several days following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. A bipartisan measure, led by Sens. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) and Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska) is one of several bills aiming for a ban that have been introduced in the Senate on the issue. “The more economic pain we inflict on [Russian President Vladimir] Putin, the more pressure he will feel to finally end this brutal campaign of terror on the Ukrainian people,” said House Ways and Means Committee Chairman Richard Neal (D-Mass.). The Biden administration had initially been wary of taking any actions that could further raise gas prices. "We don't have a strategic interest in reducing the global supply of energy," White House spokesperson Karine Jean-Pierre told reporters last week. "That would raise prices at the gas pump for Americans and pad Putin’s profits." But the widespread support for banning Russian oil gained momentum in recent days with top Democratic leaders including Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.), as well as Republicans, calling for the move.

U.S. officials visit Venezuela for talks with Russia-aligned Maduro government - A group of senior U.S. officials flew to Venezuela on Saturday for a meeting with President Nicolás Maduro’s government to discuss the possibility of easing sanctions on Venezuelan oil exports as the Biden administration weighs a ban on imports of Russian oil and gas, according to two people familiar with the situation.The trip is the highest-level U.S. visit to the socialist state in years and comes as the United States is seeking to isolate Russia for its invasion of Ukraine. Venezuela, the Kremlin’s most important ally in South America, used to be a significant supplier of crude to the United States before exports were hobbled by domestic mismanagement and crippling sanctions from Washington.In recent weeks, former American lawmakers have pushed for the U.S. to ban Russian oil and gas exports while lifting restrictions on Venezuela, home to the world’s largest oil reserves. The U.S. delegation included Roger Carstens, the special presidential envoy for hostage affairs; Juan Gonzalez, the National Security Council’s senior director for Western Hemisphere affairs; and Jimmy Story, the U.S. ambassador to Venezuela, said one person familiar with the visit.The trip comes just days after Maduro and Russian President Vladimir Putin spoke over the phone about boosting the partnership between their countries.The State Department and the White House declined to comment.During the trip, U.S. officials are also trying to secure the release of six former executives of Houston-based Citgo Petroleum Corp., an oil refiner formerly controlled by the Maduro government, according to a person familiar with the visit who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive diplomatic meetings. The “Citgo 6” were arrested during a business trip to Caracas in November 2017 and charged with money laundering, embezzlement, racketeering and participating in organized crime. They denied the allegations. The U.S. officials are also seeking to negotiate the release of two former Green Berets who were accused in a plot to remove Maduro, as well as a former marine who was arrested while traveling along the Caribbean coast of Venezuela. The U.S. and Venezuela broke off diplomatic relations in 2019 after the U.S. government recognized Juan Guaidó as the country’s legitimate president, accusing Maduro of winning reelection through fraud. In an attempt to force Maduro from power, the Trump administration blocked all U.S. revenue to Venezuela’s national oil company. Biden administration officials have been weighing how to respond to penalize Russia for its invasion of Ukraine without further driving up the cost of oil and of gasoline at the pump.

Menendez slams Biden administration over reported oil talks with Venezuela - Senate Foreign Relations Committee Chairman Bob Menendez (D-N.J.) said Monday that talks between Biden administration officials and the government of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro “risks perpetuating a humanitarian crisis that has destabilized Latin America and the Caribbean for an entire generation.” “Nicolás Maduro is a cancer to our hemisphere and we should not breathe new life into his reign of torture and murder,” Menendez said in a statement. “As such, I would strongly oppose any action that fills the pockets of regime oligarchs with oil profits while Maduro continues to deprive Venezuelans of basic human rights, freedoms, and even food.” Biden administration officials on Saturday were reported to have traveled to Venezuela to talk about the possibility of easing sanctions on oil exports from Caracas as U.S. officials increasingly weigh banning Russian oil imports while the Kremlin’s invasion of Ukraine stretches into the start of its third week. The White House was pressed Monday about its willingness to engage in talks involving Venezuela, as well as Saudi Arabia and Iran about oil deals with those governments in an effort to help ease skyrocketing gas prices in the U.S. Menendez also called for the release of Americans imprisoned by the Maduro government but called for refraining from using such prisoners as “bargaining chips.” The New Jersey Democrat said the White House’s efforts to unite the world against Russia’s actions “should not be undercut by propping up a dictator under investigation for crimes against humanity in Caracas.”

Saudi, UAE leaders declined calls with Biden amid Ukraine conflict: report - Leaders in Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) declined calls with President Biden as the war in Ukraine intensified, Middle East and U.S. officials told The Wall Street Journal on Tuesday. "There was some expectation of a phone call, but it didn’t happen," a U.S. official told the Journal regarding a call between Biden and Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman. "It was part of turning on the spigot [of Saudi oil]." UAE leader Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed also declined a call from Biden, according to the officials. Officials told the outlet that U.S. relations with the two Gulf countries have been strained over the Biden administration's lack of support in the war in Yemen and the revived negotiations concerning the Iran nuclear deal. Saudi Arabia has also been pushing for legal immunity in the U.S. for Crown Prince Mohammed, who is accused of killing a journalist in 2018. One U.S. official said they have worked with the two countries to strengthen their defenses amid concerns over Iran, according to the Journal. The U.S. has been rallying international support for Ukraine as some countries have remained neutral regarding the Russian invasion. Washington is potentially looking at Iran, Saudi Arabia and Venezuela for oil talks as it cuts off Russian oil imports. Saudi Arabia and the UAE both said they will not produce more oil than agreed on by the Russian-led Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, the Journal noted.

Saudi, UAE leaders reject calls with Biden as US seeks help on oil price surge - The leaders of Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have reportedly declined calls with US President Joe Biden as Washington tries to ease surging oil prices amid Russia’s military operation in Ukraine. Citing Middle East and US officials, The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) reported on Tuesday that both Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and Abu Dhabi Crown Prince Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan have been unavailable to Biden in recent weeks. “There was some expectation of a phone call, but it didn’t happen," an American official said of a plan for bin Salman and Biden to speak. “It was part of turning on the spigot [of Saudi oil].” US relations with the two Persian Gulf countries have soured over the Biden administration's dwindling support for the Saudi-led war on Yemen and the talks in Vienna aimed at reviving the 2015 Iran deal, according to the report. Saudi Arabia has also been pushing for legal immunity in the US for bin Salman, who is accused of ordering the gruesome murder of dissident journalist Jamal Khashoggi in 2018. “The Saudis have signaled that their relationship with Washington has deteriorated under the Biden administration, and they want more support for their intervention in Yemen…, help with their own civilian nuclear program as Iran’s moves ahead, and legal immunity for Prince Mohammed in the US,” the journal quoted Saudi officials as saying. On Tuesday, Biden announced an immediate ban on Russian oil and other energy imports. The ban pushed oil prices to $130 a barrel, the highest level in 14 years. Retail gasoline prices in the United States also surged to an all-time record, with the average cost of a retail gallon of gasoline hitting $4.173. “We’re moving forward with this ban understanding that many of our European allies and partners may not be in a position to join us,” Biden said. “The United States produces far more oil domestically than all of European countries combined. In fact we are a net exporter of energy, so we can take this step.” However, latest reports said that Washington is potentially looking at Iran, Saudi Arabia and Venezuela for oil talks in a bid to lower rising energy prices.

U.S. to ban oil imports from Russia as White House explores drastic plans to buffer economy from energy shock - --The United States will ban imports of oil and natural gas from Russia, President Biden announced Tuesday, a decision reached after days of behind-the-scenes talks that revolved around protecting the global economy from an energy shock. The move represents one of America’s most far-reaching actions to penalize Moscow since the beginning of its invasion into Ukraine. It would carry enormous geopolitical consequences, as the price of oil has already skyrocketed since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, creating huge new costs for businesses and consumers. “Americans have rallied to support the Ukrainian people and have made it clear we will not be part of subsidizing Putin’s war,” Biden said Tuesday, explaining why he was banning the imports. Europe, which is far more dependent on Russian energy than the United States, announced Tuesday a plan to cut gas imports from Russia by two-thirds this year. If successful, this move would sharply reduce but does not completely sever energy ties to Moscow. Collectively, the measures from both the U.S. and Europe will deprive Russian President Vladimir Putin of one of his government’s chief sources of revenue — but also risk a shock to the global economic system that could severely damage numerous domestic economies. Russian oil accounts for about a quarter of the European Union’s oil imports, but just 3 percent of the United States’ imports. In recent days, Biden and other world leaders appear to have acknowledged that the economic fallout is a necessary consequence for trying to punish Russia. “This is a step that we’re taking to inflict further pain on Putin, but there will be costs as well here in the United States,” Biden said. “I said I would level with the American people from the beginning, and when I first spoke to this, I said defending freedom is going to cost us as well in the United States.” Framing the rising gas prices as “Putin’s price hike,” Biden vowed to use his authority to minimize the impact on Americans and assailed companies that are trying to exploit consumers with price gouging. The ban, which the White House first resisted, has gained momentum as Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky has made personal appeals to policymakers in the U.S. and around the globe. As the ban gained momentum in Washington, senior White House officials have over the last few days explored a range of measures to fill the gap left by a potential prohibition on Russian energy from the United States and other countries. These measures have included the massive scaling up of production of “heat pumps” for Europe, an additional release of U.S. oil reserves, and a gas tax holiday to protect American consumers, according to people familiar with the matter. The White House is also considering a renewed push for its clean energy agenda, people familiar with the matter said, as part of an attempt to reduce America’s dependence on authoritarian petrostates. Energy experts say many of these efforts could take months, if not years to materialize, and the short-term domestic consequences of the Russia oil ban could be severe. With oil prices already rising, the Dow Jones industrial average closed down around 800 points on Monday, a drop of about 2.4 percent. Commuters could see gas prices north of $5 per gallon if Europe joined the U.S. government in banning Russian energy exports, according to the preliminary estimates of Bob McNally, consultant and president of Rapidan Energy Group, an energy market research firm, and a former official in the George W. Bush administration..

Far left, far right find common ground opposing US interventionism | TheHill -- It’s not often that Reps. Ilhan Omar (D-Minn.) and Marjorie Taylor Greene(R-Ga.) vote the same way. The defections by 17 House lawmakers of both parties in an otherwise widely bipartisan vote this week to ban Russian oil imports and impose further sanctions over the invasion into Ukraine highlighted how wariness of U.S. interventionism is a rare area of agreement on the far left and far right. The overwhelmingly lopsided vote included two progressives — Omar and Rep. Cori Bush (D-Mo.) — joining with 15 conservative Republicans registering their opposition.Omar said that she opposed it out of concerns that the move would have a “devastating impact” on the people of Russia and Europe, and questioned whether sanctions would really hurt the Kremlin leaders waging war. And on the GOP side, Greene and others warned that banning Russian oil imports would result in even higher gas prices for Americans and potential reliance on other oil-rich nations led by dictatorships such as Venezuela.“At least there are two of us who refuse to allow Biden to hurt Americans suffering from rapidly rising gas prices,” Greene tweeted in response to Rep. Thomas Massie (R-Ky.) explaining his opposition to the legislation. Rep. Matt Gaetz (Fla.), another Republican who voted against the bill, similarly argued that the move “will make Americans poorer and less safe.”“My compassion for Ukrainians won’t force my hand to hurt my own people,” Gaetz wrote in an op-ed for The National Pulse.To be sure, the vote demonstrated how lawmakers wary of the strategy to ban Russian oil were firmly in the minority.The legislation, which also authorizes sanctions for human rights abuses and calls for reviewing Russia’s access to the World Trade Organization, easily sailed through the House with 414 lawmakers voting in favor of it. That included the top congressional leaders in both parties.The widespread support for the bill is reflective of public sentiment backing sanctions on Moscow across ideological lines. A Wall Street Journal poll this week, for instance, found that 79 percent of Americans support a ban on Russian oil imports even if it drives up gas prices. “I think the heart of it is a very clear moral narrative. You have the clearest possible case of aggression against a country that did nothing to deserve the attack and whose leader, a former television comedian, has turned into the reincarnation of Winston Churchill, if Winston Churchill had been a Jewish comedian,” said William Galston, a senior fellow in Governance Studies at the Brookings Institution.Americans, however, are drawing the line when it comes to direct military intervention. A NewsNation/Decision Desk HQ survey found that only 35 percent backed deploying troops into the conflict.

Venezuela frees at least two Americans after talks with U.S. - sources - (Reuters) - Venezuela released at least two jailed U.S. citizens on Tuesday, people familiar with the matter said, in an apparent goodwill gesture toward the Biden administration following a visit to Caracas by a high-level U.S. delegation. One of the freed prisoners was Gustavo Cardenas, among six Citgo oil executives arrested in 2017 and convicted on charges the U.S. government says were fabricated, four sources told Reuters. The other was a Cuban American, identified as Jorge Alberto Fernández, detained on unrelated charges, according to two of the sources. The weekend visit by the U.S. delegation focused not only on the fate of detained Americans but on the possibility of easing U.S. oil sanctions on the OPEC member to fill a supply gap if President Joe Biden banned Russian oil imports in response to Moscow's invasion of Ukraine - something he did on Tuesday. Venezuela is Russia's closest ally in South America. There was no immediate word on the whereabouts of the released men though they were expected to be flown to the United States without delay. Washington has sought the release of at least nine men, including those known as the "Citgo 6," two former Green Berets and a former U.S. Marine. The freeing of the two could set a more positive tone for talks between the United States and Venezuela, which have had hostile relations through successive American administrations. The U.S. delegation, the highest-ranking to travel to Venezuela in recent years, met the detainees on Sunday in a Venezuelan prison. U.S. hostage envoy Roger Carstens was part of the group, and he was believed to have stayed behind to finalize the release. Tuesday’s release followed talks with socialist President Nicolas Maduro on Saturday as the Biden administration sought ways to stave off the impact of soaring U.S. gasoline prices spurred by efforts by the West to punish Russia for its invasion of Ukraine. Biden ramped up the pressure campaign on Moscow on Tuesday with his announcement of a U.S. ban on Russian oil and other energy imports. The ban could further increase prices at the pump for American consumers, adding to inflationary pressure. Engagement with Maduro, a longtime U.S. foe, was also aimed at gauging whether Venezuela is prepared to distance itself from Russia. But the Biden administration faced strong criticism on Capitol Hill for its contact with Maduro, who is under U.S. sanctions for human rights abuses and political repression. Senator Robert Menendez, a Democrat and chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, urged the White House not to pursue a deal with Venezuela. Maduro, he said in a statement, “is a cancer to our hemisphere and we should not breathe new life into his reign of torture and murder.”

EXCLUSIVE Washington pins easing of Venezuela sanctions on direct oil supply to U.S. -sources - Washington pins easing of Venezuela sanctions on direct oil supply to U.S. –sources (Reuters) - U.S. officials have demanded Venezuela supply at least a portion of oil exports to the United States as part of any agreement to ease oil trading sanctions on the OPEC member nation, two people close to the matter said. U.S. President Joe Biden on Tuesday banned U.S. imports of Russian oil in retaliation for the invasion of Ukraine, ramping up economic pressure on a key Venezuelan ally. U.S. diplomats have worked to find energy supplies worldwide that can help compensate for disruption to Russian oil and gas exports caused by sanctions or war. U.S. officials met Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro in Caracas for the first bilateral talks in years on Saturday. Venezuela has been under U.S. oil sanctions since 2019 and could reroute crude if those restrictions were lifted. U.S. officials made clear their priority was to secure supplies for the United States, the people told Reuters. The officials told their Venezuelan counterparts that any relaxation in U.S. sanctions would be conditional on Venezuela shipping oil directly to the United States, the sources said. The United States had not previously made stipulations about the specific destination of cargoes permitted under waivers to sanctions. Chevron Corp, the last U.S. oil producer still operating in Venezuela, could be the first beneficiary if a deal is reached with Maduro's administration. Chevron has been barred from shipping Venezuelan oil from its joint ventures since 2020 and has pushed to overturn the ban. The California-based company has a special license that allows it to maintain a low-level presence in the country, only to ensure the maintenance and safety of its facilities. With that license due to expire in June, Chevron has sought authorization from the U.S. Treasury Department to trade Venezuelan oil cargoes for debt repayment through a revamped exemption, Reuters has reported. Chevron wants the revised permit so it can recoup hundreds of million dollars in unpaid debt and late dividends from its joint ventures with PDVSA. If Washington decides to ease sanctions, Chevron could be in position to partially recover production in Venezuela and resume exports to its own and other refineries on the U.S. Gulf Coast, one of the sources said, replacing Russian barrels.

Deal Would Favor Both USA and Venezuela - Some type of deal to drop oil sanctions would favor both the U.S. and Venezuela. That’s according to Matt Smith, Kpler’s lead Americas oil analyst, who expressed the view after Bloomberg reported that the countries held a meeting to discuss lifting oil sanctions. “The U.S is about to lose around 300,000 barrels per day of Russian fuel oil, hence the announcement regarding Venezuelan oil may be because the U.S. will otherwise struggle to find a replacement for Russian fuel oil barrels,” Smith told Rigzone. “U.S. imports of Venezuelan crude averaged 436,000 barrels per day in 2018 before sanctions were placed on it in early 2019 and flows dried up,” he added. “Some type of deal would favor both Venezuela and the U.S.. China would ultimately be the biggest loser, as they have been the biggest beneficiary of Venezuelan crude, likely at discounted prices,” Smith continued. When asked if the U.S. would drop oil sanctions on Venezuela in response to the Russia-Ukraine conflict, and how soon we could see this development, Smith said it was difficult to answer these questions because there is a lot of uncertainty around the situation. On Tuesday, the White House revealed that U.S. President Joe Biden would sign an executive order to ban the import of Russian oil, liquefied natural gas, and coal to the United States. Last year, the U.S. imported nearly 700,000 barrels per day of crude oil and refined petroleum products from Russia, according to the White House, which noted that the ban will deprive Russia of billions of dollars in revenues from U.S. drivers and consumers annually. On the same day, U.S. President Joe Biden revealed that two Americans who were “wrongfully detained” in Venezuela would be returning home. “I am grateful to Special Presidential Envoy for Hostage Affairs Roger Carstens and our entire diplomatic team for their tireless efforts to secure their release and reunite these families,” Biden stated on Tuesday. A statement posted on PDVSA’s website on March 9, which was translated, highlighted that Venezuela President Nicolás Maduro announced that this year the country is going to produce two million barrels a day.

Saudi, Emirati Leaders Decline Calls With Biden During Ukraine Crisis – WSJ - The White House unsuccessfully tried to arrange calls between President Biden and the de facto leaders of Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates as the U.S. was working to build international support for Ukraine and contain a surge in oil prices, said Middle East and U.S. officials. Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and the U.A.E.’s Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed al Nahyan both declined U.S. requests to speak to Mr. Biden in recent weeks, the officials said, as Saudi and Emirati officials have become more vocal in recent weeks in their criticism of American policy in the Gulf. “There was some expectation of a phone call, but it didn’t happen,” said a U.S. official of the planned discussion between the Saudi Prince Mohammed and Mr. Biden. “It was part of turning on the spigot [of Saudi oil].” Mr. Biden did speak with Prince Mohammed’s 86-year-old father, King Salman, on Feb. 9, when the two men reiterated their countries’ longstanding partnership. The U.A.E.’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs said the call between Mr. Biden and Sheikh Mohammed would be rescheduled. The Saudis have signaled that their relationship with Washington has deteriorated under the Biden administration, and they want more support for their intervention in Yemen’s civil war, help with their own civilian nuclear program as Iran’s moves ahead, and legal immunity for Prince Mohammed in the U.S., Saudi officials said. The crown prince faces multiple lawsuits in the U.S., including over the killing of journalist Jamal Khashoggi in 2018.The Emiratis share Saudi concerns about the restrained U.S. response to recent missile strikes by Iran-backed Houthi militants in Yemen against the U.A.E. and Saudi Arabia, officials said. Both governments are also concerned about the revival of the Iran nuclear deal, which doesn’t address other security concerns of theirs and has entered the final stages of negotiations in recent weeks. The White House has worked to repair relations with two key Middle Eastern countries it needs on its side as oil prices push over $130 a barrel for the first time in almost 14 years. Saudi Arabia and the U.A.E. are the only two major oil producers that can pump millions of more barrels of more oil—a capacity that, if used, could help calm the crude market at a time when American gasoline prices are at high levels.

Saudi, UAE leaders ignore Biden when he calls to talk gas prices: report The leaders of Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates would not come to the phone when President Biden tried to call them to discuss boosting oil exports to offset price hikes linked to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, according to a report. Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and the UAE Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed al Nahyan declined Biden’s attempted outreach, the Wall Street Journal reported Tuesday. “There was some expectation of a phone call, but it didn’t happen,“ a US official told the newspaper. ”It was part of turning on the spigot [of Saudi oil].” Biden on Tuesday morning banned Russian oil imports and said gasoline prices would increase even more after hitting an all-time high of $4.17 per gallon on average.Although Biden recently released some oil from the US strategic reserve, he told reporters Tuesday afternoon that he “can’t do much right now” to stop gas prices from increasing.Biden is attempting to woo an array of oil-producing autocracies — including Iran, Saudi Arabia and Venezuela — to offset the impact of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine on energy markets. Biden reportedly is considering a trip to Saudi Arabia this spring to resolve hard feelings with bin Salman, the country’s de facto ruler, who the US intelligence community believes ordered the 2018 operation that dismembered Washington Post columnist Jamal Khashoggi with a bone saw.

Crown princes of Saudi Arabia and Abu Dhabi 'refuse to work to bring down oil prices unless Joe Biden backs them in Yemen': Venezuela releases two US hostages in a sign of a thawing of relations amid rocketing gas prices: Summary:

• Joe Biden has in the past few weeks tried to speak to Mohammed bin Salman of Saudi Arabia and the U.A.E.'s Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed al Nahyan
• Both crown princes turned down the overtures from the White House, amid their simmering anger at the Biden administration
• The Gulf leaders are angry by the White House's seeming failure to back them in their proxy war with Iran in Yemen, and concerned about a new nuclear deal
• Saudi Arabia and the U.A.E. are the only major oil producing nations with sufficient capacity to compensate for the loss of Russian oil on global markets
• Joe Biden on Tuesday announced that the U.S. would no longer buy Russian oil, which accounted for around 8 percent of their imports, or 672,000 barrels of oil and petroleum products a day
• Canadian oil executives and politicians from Alberta, Canada's major oil producing region, are all arguing for the U.S. to buy more Canadian oil
• They say it is a shame Biden immediately discarded plans for the Keystone XL pipeline, in the face of pressure from environmental groups
• Yet Canada alone is not capable of making up the loss of Russian oil, as it already sends the vast majority of its exports to the U.S.
• Biden has dispatched envoys to Venezuela, which has the world's largest oil reserves - angering pro-democracy activists, but securing the release on Tuesday of two US prisoners

U.S. to revoke Russia's most-favored nation status amid Ukraine crisis - People's Daily Online (Xinhua) -- The U.S. government will revoke Russia's most-favored nation trade status amid the Ukraine crisis, the White House said Friday, noting that it will work with Group of Seven (G7) countries and the European Union to roll out new sanctions. U.S. President Joe Biden and the other G7 leaders "will announce new economic actions" to "further isolate Russia from the global financial system," the White House said in a statement. The sanction followed an energy embargo on Russia announced by Washington on Tuesday, among a series of moves against Russia over the Ukraine crisis, even though analysts have warned of huge potential consequences and spillovers. On the same day, leaders of the European Union agreed on imposing new sanctions against Russia in an informal summit in Versailles, France. President of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen said the new sanctions aim to further isolate Russia from the global economic system. She also announced a plan to find alternatives to Russian fuels by 2027 in order to reduce EU's dependence on Russia. "There's the law of unintended consequences," U.S.-China Business Council President Craig Allen told Xinhua earlier this week, commenting on the potential economic impact of Western sanctions on Russia. "What you intend to do, perhaps is punish Russia, but there are unintended consequences to every action. And it's too early to be able to say, what are the unintended consequences of this," Allen said.

House GOP leader: Oil from Iran, Venezuela to offset Russia would just pay other dictators - The U.S. needs to boost oil production to replace banned Russian crude instead of possibly looking to Iran or Venezuela, which are also run by dictators, House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy, R-Calif., told CNBC on Wednesday. "Why would you take the billions of dollars you provide to [Russian President Vladimir Putin] and just give it to another dictator that funds terrorism around the world with Iran and Venezuela?" McCarthy said on "Squawk Box." "[President Joe Biden] said at the State of the Union, 'buy America.' I believe he probably thought that, but no American energy," McCarthy added, referring to Biden's statement in his State of the Union address that led to rousing chants of U-S-A. McCarthy's comments on CNBC come one day after Biden announced the U.S. would ban Russian oil imports. U.S. and Venezuelan officials met over the weekend to discuss potentially loosening some oil sanctions on the South American nation. The White House announced Tuesday night the Venezuelan government has freed two jailed Americans, including an oil executive imprisoned alongside colleagues for more than four years. Iran, meanwhile, has been gradually increasing oil production in the last six months due to rising exports to China — and also in anticipation that talks with world powers, including the U.S., to revive Iran's 2015 nuclear deal could lead to more oil exports. Former President Donald Trump pulled out of Iran nuclear pact and reimposed sanctions. West Texas Intermediate crude fell roughly 5% on Wednesday after days of surges driven by investor fears that Russian's invasion of Ukraine would lead to curtailed oil supply. Echoing his Republican colleagues, including Florida Sen. Marco Rubio, McCarthy called for the U.S. to produce more oil onshore. The California congressman also suggested the U.S. could and should become a top global supplier of oil. "We could be energy independent, but we could be energy dominant, where we not only supply all the energy for America, but we could supply it for the world," McCarthy said. "That would make America stronger and the world safer."

Republicans Wrongly Blame Biden for Rising Gas Prices - The New York Times — As gas prices hit a high this week, top Republican lawmakers took to the airwaves and the floors of Congress with misleading claims that pinned the blame on President Biden and his energy policies.Mr. Biden warned that his ban on imports of Russian oil, gas and coal, announced on Tuesday as a response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, would cause gas prices to rise further. High costs are expected to last as long as the confrontation does.While Republican lawmakers supported the ban, they asserted that the pain at the pump long preceded the war in Ukraine. Gas price hikes, they said, were the result of Mr. Biden’s cancellation of the Keystone XL pipeline, the temporary halt on new drilling leases on public lands and the surrendering of “energy independence” — all incorrect assertions. Here’s a fact check of their claims.

• “This administration wants to ramp up energy imports from Iran and Venezuela. That is the world’s largest state sponsor of terror and a thuggish South America dictator, respectively. They would rather buy from these people than buy from Texas, Alaska and Pennsylvania.”— Senator Mitch McConnell, Republican of Kentucky and the minority leader, in a speech on Tuesday
• “Democrats want to blame surging prices on Russia. But the truth is, their out-of-touch policies are why we are here in the first place. Remember what happened on Day 1 with one-party rule? The president canceled the Keystone pipeline, and then he stopped new oil and gas leases on federal lands and waters.”— Representative Kevin McCarthy, Republican of California and the minority leader, in a speech on Tuesday
• “In the four years of the Trump-Pence administration, we achieved energy independence for the first time in 70 years. We were a net exporter of energy. But from very early on, with killing the Keystone pipeline, taking federal lands off the list for exploration, sidelining leases for oil and natural gas — once again, before Ukraine ever happened, we saw rising gasoline prices.”— Former Vice President Mike Pence in an interview on Fox Business on Tuesday

These claims are misleading. The primary reason for rising gas prices over the past year is the coronavirus pandemic and its disruptions to global supply and demand. “Covid changed the game, not President Biden,” said Patrick De Haan, the head of petroleum analysis for GasBuddy, which tracks gasoline prices. “U.S. oil production fell in the last eight months of President Trump’s tenure. Is that his fault? No.” “The pandemic brought us to our knees,” Mr. De Haan added.In the early months of 2020, when the virus took hold, demand for oil dried up and prices plummeted, with the benchmark price for crude oil in the United States falling to negative $37.63 that April. In response, producers in the United States and around the world began decreasing output.As pandemic restrictions loosened worldwide and economies recovered, demand outpaced supply. That was “mostly attributable” to the decision by OPEC Plus, an alliance of oil-producing countries that controls about half the world’s supply, to limit increases in production, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration. Domestic production also remains below prepandemic levels, as capital spending declined andinvestors remained reluctant to provide financing to the oil industry.Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has only compounded the issues.“When you throw a war on top of this, this is possibly the worst escalation you can have of this,” said Abhiram Rajendran, the head of oil market research at Energy Intelligence, an energy information company. “You’re literally pouring gasoline on general inflationary pressure.”These factors are largely out of Mr. Biden’s control, experts agreed, though they said he had not exactly sent positive signals to the oil and gas industry and its investors by vowing to reduce emissions and fossil fuel reliance. Mr. De Haan said the Biden administration was “clearly less friendly” to the industry, which may have indirectly affected investor attitudes. But overall, he said, that stance has played a “very, very small role pushing gas prices up.”

About those gas prices … – Krugman: There are three things you need to know about gasoline prices. First, the price of crude oil — the stuff that comes out of the ground — is set in a global market, not country by country. Second, fluctuations in the price of gasoline, which is refined from crude, overwhelmingly reflect fluctuations in that global price. Third, U.S. policy has little effect on world oil prices, and virtually none at all in the short run — say, the 14 months that Biden has been in office.About crude prices: A number of countries export oil: Saudi Arabia and other Persian Gulf producers, Venezuela, Norway, various others and, in normal times, Russia. Where they ship the oil depends on the price they can get. This more or less levels prices around the world: Any country with above-average prices will attract extra shipments, driving prices down; any country with below-average prices will see imports fall off, driving prices up.As usual in economics, there are some pesky details: Not all crude oil is the same, and refineries in any one country may not be adapted to use oil from all sources. But these things only matter at the margin. There are two widely cited prices of oil — West Texas Intermediate, which reflects prices in, duh, Texas, and Brent, which reflects prices in Europe. And they move almost perfectly in tandem:You can see the big recent run-up in both prices. This crude run-up has been reflected, pretty much one-for-one, in gasoline prices at the pump — everywhere. It’s true that average prices for gasoline differ at lot among countries, because taxes on consumers are much higher in Europe than they are in the United States. But short-run fluctuations are driven by the price of crude and are similar everywhere. Here’s what has happened in the United States: But stormy petrol too.So for those blaming Biden for rising prices here, I regret to inform you that he is not the prime minister of Britain, or the German chancellor, or …So rising gas prices in America, then, are part of a global story that has nothing to do with the policies of the current administration. Still, can’t the United States have some impact on that global story? We are, after all, the world’s largest oil producer, accounting for about 20 percent of world output in 2020. Can’t America do something to reduce global oil prices? Yes, in principle. Not so much in practice.

Chinese firms that aid Russia may be cut off from U.S. equipment -commerce secretary - (Reuters) - Chinese companies that defy U.S. restrictions against exporting to Russia may be cut off from American equipment and software they need to make their products, U.S. Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo told the New York Times. The U.S. could "essentially shut" down Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp (0981.HK) or any Chinese companies that defies U.S. sanctions by continuing to supply chips and other advanced technology to Russia, Raimondo told the newspaper in an interview published on Tuesday. Washington is threatening to add companies to a trade blacklist if they skirt new export curbs against Russia, as it ramps up efforts to keep a vast array of technology out of the country after it invaded Ukraine last month. read more If the United States were to find that a company like Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation was selling its chips to Russia, "we could essentially shut SMIC down because we prevent them from using our equipment and our software," she was quoted as telling the New York Times.

 Watch: US Intel Officials Warn Putin Could Nuke A Ukrainian City - U.S. intelligence officials claimed Tuesday that Vladimir Putin is ‘desperate’ to end the conflict over Ukraine, with some privately suggesting he could set off a tactical nuclear weapon in a Ukrainian city to get the job done. Heads of the CIA, FBI, NSA, Defense Intelligence Agency and the Director of National Intelligence all spoke at a House Select Committee on Intelligence hearing, and all claimed Putin is frustrated with the slow pace of the invasion. The intelligence officials also claimed that up to 4000 Russian troops have been killed in the past two weeks. Fuelled by his disappointments, Putin could resort to using a small nuke, they intimated, as insane as that sounds. CIA Director William Burns said Putin has “been stewing in a combustible combination of grievance and ambition for many years,” further noting that Russian military doctrine contains contingencies for using tactical nuclear weapons. “You know, Russian doctrine holds that you escalate to de-escalate, and so I think the risk would rise, according to the doctrine,” Burns said. Lieutenant General Scott Berrier, director of the Pentagon’s Defense Intelligence Agency added that Putin has “invested in tactical nuclear weapons.” “I also believe that when he says something, we should listen very, very carefully and maybe take him at his word,” Berrier warned. Avril Haines, the director of National Intelligence, said “Putin’s nuclear saber-rattling” cannot be ignored and that he “is unlikely to be deterred,” by the international response to his invasion “and instead may escalate, essentially doubling down.” “We assess Putin feels aggrieved the West does not give him proper deference, and perceives this as a war he cannot afford to lose,” Haines further warned, adding that “what he might be willing to accept as a victory may change over time.” The full hearing can be viewed here:

Victoria Nuland: Ukraine Has "Biological Research Facilities," Worried Russia May Seize Them -- Glenn Greenwald --Self-anointed "fact-checkers” in the U.S. corporate press have spent two weeks mocking as disinformation and a false conspiracy theory the claim that Ukraine has biological weapons labs, either alone or with U.S. support. They never presented any evidence for their ruling — how could they possibly know? and how could they prove the negative? — but nonetheless they invoked their characteristically authoritative, above-it-all tone of self-assurance and self-arrogated right to decree the truth and label such claims false. Claims that Ukraine currently maintains dangerous biological weapons labs came from Russia as well as China. The Chinese Foreign Ministry this month claimed: "The US has 336 labs in 30 countries under its control, including 26 in Ukraine alone.” The Russian Foreign Ministry asserted that “Russia obtained documents proving that Ukrainian biological laboratories located near Russian borders worked on development of components of biological weapons.” Such assertions deserve the same level of skepticism as U.S. denials: namely, none of it should be believed to be true or false absent evidence. Yet U.S. fact-checkers dutifully and reflexively sided with the U.S. Government to declare such claims "disinformation” and to mock them as QAnon conspiracy theories.Unfortunately for this propaganda racket masquerading as neutral and high-minded fact-checking, the neocon official long in charge of U.S. policy in Ukraine testified on Monday before the Senate Foreign Relations Committee and strongly suggested that such claims are, at least in part, true. Yesterday afternoon, Under Secretary of State Victoria Nuland testified before the Senate Foreign Relations Committee. Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL), hoping to debunk growing claims that there are chemical weapons labs in Ukraine, smugly asked Nuland: “Does Ukraine have chemical or biological weapons?” Rubio undoubtedly expected a flat denial by Nuland, thus providing further "proof” that such speculation is dastardly Fake News emanating from the Kremlin, the CCP and QAnon. Instead, Nuland did something completely uncharacteristic for her, for neocons, and for senior U.S. foreign policy officials: for some reason, she told a version of the truth. Her answer visibly stunned Rubio, who — as soon as he realized the damage she was doing to the U.S. messaging campaign by telling the truth — interrupted her and demanded that she instead affirm that if a biological attack were to occur, everyone should be “100% sure” that it was Russia who did it. Grateful for the life raft, Nuland told Rubio he was right. But Rubio's clean-up act came too late. When asked whether Ukraine possesses “chemical or biological weapons,” Nuland did not deny this: at all. She instead — with palpable pen-twirling discomfort and in halting speech, a glaring contrast to her normally cocky style of speaking in obfuscatory State Department officialese — acknowledged: “uh, Ukraine has, uh, biological research facilities.” Any hope to depict such "facilities” as benign or banal was immediately destroyed by the warning she quickly added: “we are now in fact quite concerned that Russian troops, Russian forces, may be seeking to, uh, gain control of [those labs], so we are working with the Ukrainiahhhns [sic] on how they can prevent any of those research materials from falling into the hands of Russian forces should they approach” — [interruption by Sen. Rubio]:

 United States and its Biological Laboratories in Ukraine --There are a lot of moving parts in the Ukraine/Russia/United States story, most of which you will not see reported in the dinosaur media. One of the more interesting aspects of Washington's relationship with Ukraine is the presence of a significant number of biological laboratories that are being funded by the United States Department of Defense. Here is a screen capture from the U.S. Department of State's Ukraine website: You will notice that along the right side of the webpage, there are a number of links to fact sheets for the United States' funded labs in Ukraine. Interestingly, these links were live at the beginning of March 2022 (thanks to this Archive link), however, this is what you will see if you click on any of the links now: Fortunately for the world, the webmasters at the Department of State aren't that clever. They don't seem to realize that the Wayback Machine exists and that whatever appears on the internet is pretty much there forever. Fortunately, we can still access the information for each of the biolabs which fall under the Defense Threat Reduction Office as follows, noting that each of these labs is funded by "donations" from the Department of Defense of the United States of America and that costs provided are for construction only and do not include operating costs: (embedded documents on 11 laboratories included here) While it doesn't appear on the State website, we also have this very recent justification for an Exception to Fair Opportunity (i.e. sole source or no-bid contract) from the U.S. Department of Defense's Defense Threat Reduction Agency for two laboratories, one in Kiev and one in Odessa which have a total cost of $3,615,812.81:

Congress passes $50 bln U.S. Postal Service relief bill - (Reuters) - The U.S. Senate voted overwhelmingly on Tuesday to provide the long loss-making Postal Service (USPS) with about $50 billion in financial relief over a decade and require its future retirees to enroll in a government health insurance plan. In a rare display of bipartisanship for a narrowly divided Congress, the 79-19 vote follows approval by the U.S. House of Representatives in early February and sends the bill to President Joe Biden for his signature. Struggling with diminishing mail volumes despite having to deliver to a growing number of addresses, USPS has reported net losses of more than $90 billion since 2007. Last month, it booked a quarterly net loss of $1.5 billion. The bill will ensure "this essential public service" is "set on a path to long-term financial sustainability," said Senator Gary Peters, a Democrat who chairs the committee overseeing USPS and is a lead sponsor of the bill. The legislation combined with operational reforms will mean "we will be able to self-fund our operations and continue to deliver to 161 million addresses six days per-week for many decades to come," said Postmaster General Louis DeJoy. Dejoy proposed some of the financial reforms in the legislation. The legislative financial changes are a key part of his March 2021 reform plan, which he has said could eliminate $160 billion in predicted losses over the next decade. As part of the plan, USPS adopted new delivery standards in October that slow some first-class mail deliveries, a move that allowed it to shift significant deliveries from air to surface transportation, cutting costs. One reason for the large losses is 2006 legislation mandating USPS pre-fund more than $120 billion in retiree healthcare and pension liabilities. The new bill eliminates requirements USPS pre-fund retiree health benefits for current and retired employees for 75 years, a requirement no business or other federal entity faces. USPS projects it would sharply reduce its pre-funding liability and save it roughly $27 billion over 10 years. It requires future retirees to enroll in Medicare. About 25% of postal retirees do not enroll in Medicare even though they are eligible, which results in USPS paying higher premiums than other employers. USPS estimates the change could save it about $22.6 billion over 10 years. USPS will also be required to maintain six-day a week mail deliveries and develop an online weekly performance data dashboard by ZIP code, as well as expand special rates for local newspaper distribution.

GOP senators press Biden to rescind pro-labor construction order - Forty-three GOP senators on Monday pushed back on President Biden’s executive order to require collective bargaining agreements between contractors and workers for federal construction projects. In a letter to Biden led by Sen. Todd Young (R-Ind.), lawmakers said the order, which requires project labor agreements (PLA) for federal construction contracts exceeding $35 million, would hurt the implementation of the bipartisan infrastructure bill signed last year. They noted that 87 percent of the private construction industry is not unionized. “Mandating PLAs will prevent qualified contractors from fairly competing for contracts on taxpayer-funded projects,” the senators wrote. “A fair and open bidding process for federal construction projects would guarantee the best value for hardworking taxpayers located in all geographies and regions across the United States.” Biden signed the order last month at the Ironworkers Local 5, located in Upper Marlboro, Md. He said that it would boost wages and working conditions for construction workers and increase the overall quality of federal projects. “[PLAs] ensure that major projects are handled by well-trained, well-prepared, highly-skilled workers, and they ward off problems,” Biden said. “They resolve disputes ahead of time, ensuring safer work sites, avoiding disruptions and work stoppages that can cause expensive delays down the line.” GOP senators on Monday noted President Obama signed an order to encourage — but not mandate — PLAs for federal construction contracts exceeding $25 million, and federal agencies only opted to use PLAs for a small number of projects.

Overloaded boat with hundreds of Haitian migrants makes landfall in Florida Keys - The U.S. Border Patrol confirmed that a boat reportedly carrying about 300 Haitian migrants made landfall in the Florida Keys area on Sunday. Chief Patrol Agent Walter N. Slosar, who is in charge of the Miami region, tweeted that the migrants were believed to be part of a smuggling operation. Slosar said on Sunday that the boat was carrying approximately 300 migrants, many of whom were in need of medical attention. He specified that 163 of them swam to shore after the boat started to sink. He shared two photos of the incident — one of the boat filled with migrants while they were in dire need of help and another with them on shore, wrapped in blue and white striped towels. Videos shared by the U.S. Coast Guard showed agents taking part in a joint operation to assist the migrants. It said the incident took place off off Ocean Reef in Florida. The Coast Guard said that "initial reports show that the people involved in this suspected smuggling venture are Haitian." In a statement on Twitter, The Coast Guard District Seven Lt. Cmdr. Jason Neiman said, "Our priority is keeping everyone safe after this dangerous voyage and grounding. Multiple agencies responded quickly and worked closely to protect a lot of lives today." According to The Wall Street Journal, Coast Guard data shows that total interdictions across all of the agency’s districts are on track to match those in 2016. However it added that the maritime figures are small compared with those for attempted land crossings at the U.S.-Mexico border.

U.S. Accuses Zero Hedge of Spreading Russian Propaganda - (AP) -- U.S. intelligence officials on Tuesday accused a conservative financial news website with a significant American readership of amplifying Kremlin propaganda and alleged five media outlets targeting Ukrainians have taken direction from Russian spies.The officials said Zero Hedge, which has 1.2 million Twitter followers, published articles created by Moscow-controlled media that were then shared by outlets and people unaware of their nexus to Russian intelligence. The officials did not say whether they thought Zero Hedge knew of any links to spy agencies and did not allege direct links between the website and Russia.Russian propaganda is being spread from every orifice available. As well as Chinese, Iranian, and various 'non-state actors'.Some of this is so blatant that attribution is self-evident. Some of the rest of it is more subtle, until one understands the motives of the publisher. Some of these expose real issues that Americans or westerners find uncomfortable. While it might all be 'propaganda' designed to fracture Western societies along their fault lines, some of this needs to be discussed, regardless of who is initiating the conversation.

Bolton: Putin 'waiting' for Trump to withdraw from NATO in 2nd term -Former National Security Advisor John Bolton said on Friday that Russian President Vladimir Putin was waiting for former President Donald Trump to withdraw the United States from the North Atlantic Treaty Organization if he had won a second term.Bolton made the remarks during a virtual event with the Washington Post on the Russian invasion of Ukraine, where Bolton mostly offered critiques of current President Joe Biden's foreign policy in the region. At the end of the event, he was asked by the Post's Michael Duffy about how close Trump came to withdrawing the country from NATO, a translantic security alliance that includes the United States, Canada, and most of Europe. "I thought he put his foot over it, but at least he didn't withdraw then," said Bolton, who wrote in his memoir about Trump'sconsideration of withdrawing from NATO in 2018. "In a second Trump term, I think he may well have withdrawn from NATO. And I think Putin was waiting for that." Trump viewed NATO as a liability during his presidency, believing that European countries were not paying enough of their fair share of the burden of providing defense to the alliance. Bolton, a State Department official during the George W. Bush administration, was brought on to be Trump's national security advisor in 2018 only to be ousted a year and a half later.

 The CDC’s New Guidelines on Covid Risk and Masking Send Confounding Signals -When the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention last month unveiled updated covid-19 guidelines that relaxed masking recommendations, some people no doubt sighed in relief and thought it was about time.People have become increasingly comfortable being out shopping, attending live events, or meeting up with friends at restaurants. And many are ready to cast aside their masks. Still, a recent KFF poll pointed to an underlying tension. Just as a large swath of the American public, 62%, said that the worst of the pandemic was behind us, nearly half were worried about easing covid-related restrictions — like indoor masking — too soon. The poll, conducted in February, found that 49% of adults were either “very worried” or “somewhat worried” that lifting pandemic restrictions would cause more virus-related deaths in their communities. About 50% were “not too worried” or “not at all worried” that death tolls would rise in their communities.The CDC’s move triggered some of the same mixed feelings from the public that the poll uncovered and laid bare a split within the health care community.On the one hand, there’s applause.The CDC’s protocol change is an indicator that the nation is approaching a “transition from the pandemic phase to an endemic phase,” said Dr. Georges Benjamin, executive director of the American Public Health Association. Rather than pushing messages of prevention, Benjamin said, the agency is changing its focus to monitoring for spikes of infection.On the other hand, there is criticism — and worry, too.“When I hear about relaxing regulations,” said Dr. Benjamin Neuman, a Texas A&M University professor and chief virologist at its Global Health Research Complex, “it sounds a lot like people giving up. And we’re not there yet, and it’s a little bit heartbreaking and a little bit hair-pulling.”Before the update, the CDC considered a community at substantial or high risk if it had had an infection rate of 50 or more new cases for every 100,000 residents in the previous week.According to the agency’s new community-based guidance, risk levels can be low, medium, or high and are determined by looking — over a seven-day period — at three factors: the number of new covid cases in an area, the share of hospital beds being used, and hospital admissions.This change had a profound impact on how covid risk was measured across the country. For example, the day before the CDC announced the new guidelines, 95% of the nation’s countieswere considered areas of substantial or high risk. Now, just 14% of counties fall into the high-risk category, according to the agency.The CDC doesn’t make specific mask recommendations for areas at low risk. For areas classified as medium risk, people who have other health problems or are immunocompromised are urged to speak to their health care provider about whether they should mask up and take other precautions. In areas deemed to be high risk, residents are urged to wear masks in indoor public spaces. “This more stratified approach with this combination of those factors gives us a better level of understanding of covid-19’s impact on our communities,” said Keri Althoff, an epidemiologist at the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health. “Specifically, the impact of severe disease and death.”But people shouldn’t get rid of their masks yet, she said. Even as the nation’s infection rates fall, the virus continues to spread on a global scale. “We have to fully recognize that there are so many people on this Earth who are unvaccinated internationally, and this is where the variants come from,” Althoff said.

Rep. DeLauro tests positive for COVID-19 in breakthrough case - Rep. Rosa DeLauro (D-Conn.) announced Saturday that she had tested positive for a breakthrough case of COVID-19.“While I tested negative earlier this week, today I tested positive for COVID-19," DeLauro posted on Twitter.She said that she was experiencing mild symptoms and expressed gratitude for "the protection that comes from being vaccinated & boosted."“I encourage everyone who is eligible to get vaccinated and get boosted,” she continued.She said she will be working from home the rest of the week and unable to attend St. Patrick's Day events. DeLauro is the chair of the House Appropriations Committee. This comes after the House earlier this week passed a sweeping $1.5 trillion government funding package. Following the legislation's approval in the lower chamber, it was passed by the Senate Thursday night and sent to President Biden's desk.

Twelfth House Republican fined for not wearing mask - The House Ethics Committee on Monday disclosed that Rep. Randy Weber (R-Texas) has been fined $500 for not wearing a mask on the House floor, making him the 12th House Republican facing monetary sanction for defying the requirement before it was rescinded last week. Lawmakers have 30 days to challenge the fines before the House Ethics Committee, but Weber did not file an appeal, according to the panel. The Ethics Committee said that it received notice of the fine issued to Weber by the House sergeant-at-arms on Nov. 30. The Capitol physician announced last week — two days before President Biden's State of the Union address — that masks were no longer mandatory. The change came days after the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention issued updated guidance that masks should be optional in localities with what it considers "low" or "medium" community level of COVID-19. Eleven other House Republicans have been fined for not wearing a mask in the House chamber in the last year: Reps. Marjorie Taylor Greene (Ga.), Andrew Clyde (Ga.), Lauren Boebert (Colo.), Mariannette Miller-Meeks (Iowa), Bob Good (Va.), Mary Miller (Ill.), Chip Roy (Texas), Ralph Norman (S.C.), Brian Mast (Fla.), Beth Van Duyne (Texas) and Thomas Massie (Ky.). Only three of those Republicans have been repeat offenders. Miller-Meeks has been fined twice, while Greene and Clyde have both been fined dozens of times.

GAO says 114 Capitol Police officers reported injuries on Jan. 6 - Capitol Police reported 114 officers were injured on Jan. 6, 2021, far more than previously reported, according to a new report from the Government Accountability Office (GAO) published on Monday. In its report, the GAO said out of the 315 officers who responded to the survey, 207 of them felt somewhat prepared to use force and apply crowd control tactics during the insurrection, while 96 others said they felt slightly or not at all prepared. When asked about crowd control tactics, 134 officers said that they felt well or somewhat prepared, and 153 others noted that they didn’t feel prepared at all. The report also notes that 150 officers reported using force 293 times that day, with 80 officers adding that they felt hesitant to use force because of a fear of disciplinary action, according to the report. “Of these, 57 respondents indicated that they felt that the leadership culture of the Capitol Police generally discouraged them from using force or that officers were hesitant to use force because of a fear of disciplinary actions,” the report said. “Several respondents also noted that they felt that they were not empowered to decide whether they could use force and that they needed to ask their supervisor for permission, which may have been difficult during the chaotic atmosphere of the attack,” the report added. Previously, more than 80 officers were injured on Jan. 6, which resulted in five deaths after pro-Trump supporters stormed the building in the hope of stopping Congress' count of Electoral College votes affirming President Biden's win. The GAO recommended the Capitol Police make certain changes such as providing officers with more realistic training and providing more crowd control training to prepare all officers.

‘Freedom Convoy’ spinoff arrives in Maryland with about 1,000 vehicles and unclear plans — They drove pickup trucks, RVs, 18-wheelers and minivans, some making a 2,500-mile journey from Southern California. More joined as the convoy passed through Amarillo, Tex., or rallied at a farm equipment supplier in Monrovia, Ind. And others came in Friday, as about 1,000 vehicles converged at a speedway in Hagerstown, Md., under the rallying cry of “freedom.”The truckers and their supporters are now the closest they have been to the nation’s capital, where they say they want to hold lawmakers accountable for the government’s pandemic responses. The group’s next planned steps had been unclear. But late Saturday night, Brian Brase, an organizer of the self-described "People’s Convoy,” said in an interview the drivers planned to circle the Capital Beltway twice on Sunday morning and escalate that pattern on successive days.“We don’t want to shut D.C. down,” Brase said. “We’re not anti-vaxxers. We’re not. We just want freedom, freedom. We want to choose. We just want the choice. So tomorrow is a basically a show of just how big we are and how serious we are.” He said it was not clear how long they planned to remain in the area and described the situation as “very fluid.”The convoy’s motives are muddy. People gathered in the Western Maryland city described frustrations with workplace vaccine mandates and other measures meant to limit the spread of the coronavirus — even though those rules have now been lifted in many places. At the speedway, the crowds chanted anti-President Biden slogans and displayed support for former president Donald Trump. Extremism analysts point to a broader set of right-wing causes that have motivated participants.Trucks and cars filed into the speedway complex Saturday morning, passing under an American flag waving from a cable between two 30-foot booms attached to semi tow-trucks. Within, truckers and their supporters were waking up after the Friday night rally. Most in the crowd were White men, but there were also some young children and dogs.Rows and rows of tanker trucks, flatbeds, box trailers, RVs and pickup trucks lined the parking lot, bearing license plates from Utah, Maine, Arkansas, Texas and other states. A chorus of honking horns blared from the area where the convoy vehicles were stacked in lines, awaiting their next move.

 Arizona lawmaker speaks to white nationalists, calls for violence — and sets fundraising records - Midway through a white nationalist’s conference in Orlando last month, one speaker drew applause calling for gruesome violence against “traitors” after excoriating critics of the “honorable” Confederate Gen. Robert E. Lee and proponents of the “bioweapon” coronavirus vaccine. “We need to build more gallows,” the speaker said, adding that such a deadly fate would “make an example of these traitors who’ve betrayed our country.” The speech via video at the Feb. 25 conference organized by far-right activist Nick Fuentes, who has espoused racist and antisemitic views, wasn’t from another online agitator or fringe radio host. Rather, it was delivered by Arizona state Sen. Wendy Rogers, a Republican lawmaker who represents tens of thousands of constituents and has found a rising national profile as a face of the radicalized wing of the GOP. Rogers’s trajectory shows the political and financial incentives of going to extremes. After losing her earliest races as a mainstream Republican, she moved further and further right until she beat an incumbent by campaigning as the more conservative choice. Now, after a year of fanning bogus allegations about election fraud and other false claims, she is the most successful fundraiser in the Arizona state legislature. She raised nearly $2.5 million in 2021, outraising even statewide candidates for governor, attorney general and secretary of state, according to campaign finance records. Nearly $2 million of that money came from small donations from outside Arizona as she traveled the U.S. calling for the 2020 election to be overturned and demanding audits of the vote without credible evidence of fraud. While her support for former president Donald Trump’s election falsehoods puts her in line with many Republicans, Rogers has moved unapologetically further to the edges of American politics: Calling for jailing and executing her political opponents, identifying herself as a member of the Oath Keepers militia group, and attending a conference organized by a group linked to QAnon, the violent anti-government ideology. Advertisement Her latest speech to Fuentes’s group earned her a rare official rebuke from Republicans, via a 24-3 Arizona Senate vote to censure her. But she made it clear she believes such blowback only strengthens her message, as she quickly decried the elites for trying to silence her and refused to apologize or back down. Like fellow GOP provocateurs in Congress, such as Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.) and Madison Cawthorn (R-N.C.), Rogers’s inflammatory rhetoric has gained her widespread notice in the pro-Trump media ecosystem and on social media, making her a sought-after endorsement well beyond her rural home district around Flagstaff. Of the 20 candidates she has endorsed in this year’s midterms, only one is from Arizona. “She’s so great,” said Trump, who has endorsed Rogers’s reelection, at an Arizona rally in January.

 Deutsche Bank Has Lost 38 Percent of Its Market Value in a Month; That’s a Big Problem for Wall Street and the Fed - By Pam Martens - Deutsche Bank (symbol DB on the above chart) closed at $16.50 on the New York Stock Exchange on February 10 of this year. It closed at $10.23 yesterday – a decline of 38 percent in a month’s time. That’s a big problem because Deutsche Bank is heavily interconnected to Wall Street banks via derivatives. According to Deutsche Bank’s most recent annual report, as of December 31, 2020, it held $35.4 trillion in notional derivatives. (Notional means face amount. See the table on page 147 of the 2020 Deutsche Bank Annual Report here.) Deutsche Bank, a large German bank, was among the global banks bailed out by the Fed during the financial crash of 2008 as well as during the (still unexplained) liquidity crash that saw the Fed pump trillions of dollars in cumulative loans into global banks from September 17, 2019 through July 2, 2020.In June 2016, The International Monetary Fund (IMF) released a report with a finding that Deutsche Bank posed the greatest threat to global financial stability than any other bank because of its interconnections to Wall Street mega banks and large banks in Europe. (See graph below.) The largest bank in the United States, JPMorgan Chase, was shown as one of the banks with the largest amount of exposure.Despite that finding by the IMF in 2016, Deutsche Bank has been allowed by regulators in Europe and the U.S. to continue engaging in high-risk Over-the-Counter derivatives. It also has an uncomfortable history of suicides and rogue behavior. See a sampling of its history since 2014 below. Yes, President Joe Biden’s administration has a lot on its plate. But if it doesn’t get serious about reforming Wall Street and its derivative weapons of mass destruction, it will have a lot more to deal with eventually.

 U.S. probes options trade gained on Microsoft-Activision deal - WSJ - (Reuters) - U.S. Federal prosecutors and securities regulators are investigating large bets that Barry Diller, Alexander von Furstenberg and David Geffen made on Activision Blizzard Inc shares in January, days before the videogame maker agreed to be acquired by Microsoft Corp , the Wall Street Journal reported on Tuesday. IAC Chairman Diller, his stepson von Furstenberg, and music mogul Geffen have an unrealized profit of about $60 million on the options trade, based on the recent Activision share price of around $80, according to the report here, citing people familiar with the matter. The Justice Department is investigating whether any of the options trades violated insider-trading laws, the report said, adding that the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) is separately conducting a civil insider-trading investigation. Diller told Reuters that none of them had any knowledge about a potential acquisition of Activision by Microsoft and that they acted simply on the belief that Activision was undervalued and therefore had the potential for going private or being acquired. “If we had any such information we would never have traded on it – it strains credulity to believe we would have done so three days before Microsoft and Activision made their announcement,” he added in a statement. Spokespersons for the Justice Department and the SEC did not respond to Reuters’ request for comment, while von Furstenberg and Geffen could not be immediately reached. In January, Microsoft announced plans to buy Activision the “Call of Duty” maker for $68.7 billion in the biggest gaming industry deal in history.

 WSJ: House Judiciary Bigwigs Ask Justice Department to Probe Amazon for Possible Criminal Obstruction of Congress by Jerri-Lynn Scofield -- The Wall Street Journal reports this morning a bipartisan group of key House Judiciary Committee members has sent a 24-page letter to attorney general Merrick Garland, asking the Department of Justice (DoJ) to probe Amazon and some of its executives for possible criminal obstruction of Congress.The letter was signed by three Democrats, judiciary committee chairman Jerrold Nadler, antitrust subcommittee chairman David N. Cicilline, and antitrust subcommittee vice chairman Pramila Jayapal. Two Republicans, ranking member of the antitrust subcommittee Ken Buck and member on the antitrust subcommittee Matt Gaetz, also signed on. Reigning in big Tech is a goal upon which at least some Congresscritters on both sides of the aisle can agree.As far as I can see, the wSJ broke the story. Other media and commentators have begun to weigh in – including the Washington Post – owned by Jeff Bezos, founder of Amazon, and a player in the allegations – and CNBC.The WSJ also conducted “credible investigative reporting” that underpins the letter’s claim that Amazon lied to Congress in in sworn testimony by a senior executive. According to the letter: Last Congress, the U.S. House of Representatives’ Committee on the Judiciary (Committee) conducted an extensive investigation into competition in digital markets. During that investigation, and in follow-up inquiries, Amazon engaged in a pattern and practice of misleading conduct that suggests it was “acting with an improper purpose” “to influence, obstruct, or impede” the Committee’s investigation and inquiries.In its first appearance before the Committee during the investigation, Amazon lied through a senior executive’s sworn testimony that Amazon did not use any of the troves of data it had collected on its third-party sellers to compete with them. But credible investigative reporting showed otherwise. “interviews with more than 20 former employees of Amazon’s private-label business and documents reviewed by The Wall Street Journal reveal that employees did just that.”The Committee’s investigation uncovered similar evidence from former Amazon employees, as well as current and former sellers. [citations omitted].In the past, a spokesman has denied that the company or its executives misled the committee and has said that internal policy prohibits using individual seller data to develop Amazon products. Amazon investigates any allegations that the policy might have been violated, the spokesman has said.Recall that the House judiciary committee conducted a 16-month antitrust investigation into Amazon and three other big Tech companies, Apple, Google parent Alphabet, and Facebook (aka Meta Platforms) that resulted in an October 2020 report. Amazon is the only one of the four companies that the committee accuses of criminal obstruction.

CEO of nonbank lender arrested for PPP-related fraud - Federal prosecutors recently arrested the CEO of a Paycheck Protection Program lender who allegedly received more than $71 million in lending fees thanks to a falsified application. Rafael Martinez, through his firm MBE Capital Partners, issued $823 million in PPP loans to approximately 36,600 businesses, according to both the U.S. Department of Justice and a partner at the law firm representing Martinez. Where prosecutors and the defendant disagree is over allegations that Martinez falsified financial documents in the process, lied about the company’s payroll and number of employees, and forged a signature. The scheme allegedly netted MBE roughly $280,000 in its own PPP loan and approval from the Small Business Administration to administer government-subsidized loans.

 Congress passes 72-hour cyberattack reporting requirement --A bill that would require banks to report substantial cyber incidents and ransom payments to the federal government passed through Congress this week and now heads to President Biden’s desk.The House passed the Cyber Incident Reporting for Critical Infrastructure Act of 2022 as part of its omnibus spending package on Wednesday, and the Senate passed the legislation the next day. The Senate had expressed unanimous support for the reporting requirements and two related measures last week. Critical infrastructure providers across 16 sectors, including financial services and information technology, must meet the same requirements, covering both banks and their tech vendors. Each cyber incident would have to be reported within 72 hours of a determination that it was significant and payments made to ransomware attackers would have to be reported within 24 hours.

Crypto lobbying skyrocketed last year — even Facebook and IBM got involved -The business of influencing cryptocurrency policy in Washington exploded last year and has more than quadrupled in the past four years, according to a new study. Since 2018, spending on crypto lobbying has quadrupled, according to a Public Citizen analysis of federal disclosures. The number of lobbyists working on crypto issues also climbed to 320 from 115 in the same period. In total, the industry spent more than $9 million attempting to influence members of Congress in 2021, according to the report. Marquee spenders included Coinbase Global, Ripple Labs and the Blockchain Association, which together made up over a third of lobbying by crypto companies in 2021.

CFPB eyes big tech’s crypto plans --The crypto ambitions of large technology companies are drawing concern from the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau. The CFPB is asking that companies share with the agency their plans for the growing asset class, Rohit Chopra, the agency’s director, said on Friday. The bureau is also working other federal regulators to ensure consumers are getting protections as crypto gains more mainstream adoption. “We think it’s probably going to happen — if it happens — by riding the rails of some of the big tech companies or some of the other big players,” Chopra said in an interview on Bloomberg Television’s “Balance of Power with David Westin.”

Biden administration issues wide-ranging executive order on crypto — President Biden will sign an executive order Wednesday directing the federal government to respond to the growth of cryptocurrency, including a mandate to explore whether to create a digital dollar.The review of the government’s approach to digital assets seeks to harmonize what has to date been a piecemeal and inconsistent strategy. It takes a sweeping look at the industry, addressing together what officials have previously treated as separate regulatory spheres, such as consumer protection, financial stability and national security. The United States "must play a leading role in international engagement and global governance of digital assets consistent with democratic values and U.S. global competitiveness,” according to a fact sheet about a cryptocurrency-related order President Biden is expected to sign Wednesday.“The United States must maintain technological leadership in this rapidly growing space,” a fact sheet released ahead of the announcement said. “And it must play a leading role in international engagement and global governance of digital assets consistent with democratic values and U.S. global competitiveness.”

Stocks plunge as rising oil, wheat prices shake market - Stocks fell sharply Monday as the economic fallout of Russia’s war in Ukraine rattled investors. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell almost 800 points Monday to close with a loss of 2.4 percent. The Nasdaq composite plunged 3.6 percent lower and the S&P 500 index closed with a loss of 3 percent. Companies in the finance, travel, entertainment, retail and construction industries fell sharply Monday as skyrocketing oil prices raised fears of an economic slowdown, while energy companies rallied on the prospect of higher prices. Stocks have fallen for weeks amid rising concern about inflation and the economic blowback of the invasion of Ukraine. The Dow is down 10.3 percent, the S&P is down 12.4 percent, and the Nasdaq is down 19 percent since the start of 2022. Prices for oil, natural gas and wheat have also risen dramatically after the U.S. and allies imposed unprecedented sanctions on the Russian economy, which could limit their access to key Russian exports. Economists have warned that higher energy and food prices will likely slow growth in the U.S. through the first half of the year and fuel higher inflation. Prices rose 7.5 percent over the 12 months ending in January, according to Labor Department data, the highest rate in more than 40 years.

Goldman Sachs to exit Russia in Wall Street’s first pullout - Goldman Sachs Group said it plans to close its operations in Russia, the first major Wall Street bank to leave in response to the nation’s invasion of Ukraine. “Goldman Sachs is winding down its business in Russia in compliance with regulatory and licensing requirements,” the company said Thursday in an emailed statement. “We are focused on supporting our clients across the globe in managing or closing out pre-existing obligations in the market and ensuring the well-being of our people.” The Wall Street powerhouse has maintained a presence in Russia in recent years, but the country doesn’t amount to a meaningful portion of its global banking business. At the end of 2021, the firm’s total credit exposure to Russia was $650 million, most of which was tied to nonsovereign counterparties or borrowers.

A big bank is in trouble, and no one knows which one or why -— The Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. likely made a large addition to its problem bank list, experts say, as the agency reported a spike in troubled assets managed by firms in the fourth quarter. The volume of assets held by banks on the FDIC’s problem bank list — a tally of banks that received poor ratings from regulators — jumped by about $120 billion in the fourth quarter, according to the agency’s fourth- quarter banking profile released last week. That’s more than triple the previous figure of assets under problem banks, and it’s the highest that asset number has been since the third quarter of 2013. At the same time, the number of banks on that list declined by two, to 44.

The Big Question on Wall Street Is Which Banks Owe $41 Billion on Credit Default Swaps on Russia By Pam and Russ Martens: There is a known $41 billion in Credit Default Swaps (CDS) on Russian debt. There is likely many billions more in unknown amounts. There are also billions more in Credit Default Swaps on state-owned Russian corporate debt and non state-owned Russian corporate debt.In addition to Wall Street not knowing which global banks and other financial institutions are on the hook to pay out on the Credit Default Swap protection they sold in case of a Russian sovereign debt default (or Russian corporate debt default), there is also approximately $100 billion of Russian sovereign debt (whose default is looking more and more likely) sitting on the balance sheets of foreign banks.Put it all together and you have the makings of a replay of the 2008 banking crisis when banks backed away from lending to each other because they didn’t know who would fall next from toxic subprime exposure. That led to a liquidity crisis and the unprecedented involvement of the Federal Reserve secretly pumping trillions of dollars into the megabanks on Wall Street and their foreign derivative counterparties.The cost of buying a five-year Credit Default Swap on Russian debt has spiked from 5 percent of the total value of the debt in early February to 46 percent last Friday to 58 percent this morning. The market has now priced in an 80 percent likelihood of default.Russia’s debt was downgraded to junk status on February 25 by Standard and Poor’s. On March 3, Moody’s and Fitch downgraded the debt by six notches, also placing it in junk territory.As the chart above indicates, the share prices of global banks with ties to Russia have been plunging since Russia began massive deployment of troops on the border of Ukraine and particularly since the invasion of Ukraine on February 24. Reuters reported on February 28 that Citigroup has $10 billion in exposure to Russian loans and various other types of Russian exposure. Given Citigroup’s history of understating its subprime exposure during the financial crisis of 2008, that $10 billion may not be the whole story. On February 1, Citigroup closed the trading day at $66.56. It closed last Friday at $56.59 – a decline of 15 percent. Citigroup’s commercial bank, Citibank, also has a significant commercial banking presence in Russia. Its website reports that it is “a key banking partner for about 3000 corporate clients including more than 600 global subsidiaries (virtually all of 500 Fortune companies), leading Russian companies and mid-sized clientele.” Its website notes further that it has branches servicing approximately 500,000 individual customers in 10 major cities in Russia, including: Moscow, St. Petersburg, Yekaterinburg, Nizhny Novgorod, Samara, Sochi, Rostov-on-Don, Volgograd, Ufa and Kazan. Its operations center is located in Ryazan. The bank’s Russian website lists the following services to Russian clients: “…cash management, trade finance, investment banking, corporate finance, lending, FX [foreign exchange] and hedging services, securities services, issuer services and retail banking solutions, including wealth management, credit cards and personal loans.”

Fed shouldn't have to remind large banks about managing obvious risks --With the recent departures of Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. Chair Jelena McWilliams and Federal Reserve Vice Chair for Supervision Randy Quarles, banking supervision and regulation are likely to get strengthened. That would mark the end of the Trump-era’s much discussed deregulation and, too often, non-regulation and nonenforcement. In addition, banking supervision, which is rarely publicly mentioned, is also going to be revived.That can’t happen soon enough given a recent, incredibly important but mostly unreported red flag: late on a Friday afternoon in December, the Fed issued an unprecedented supervisory letter chastising Wall Street’s biggest banks regarding their market risk management failures, highlighted by the Archegos family office debacle. The Fed’s findings reflected in that letter were also highlighted at a Feb. 4 meeting of the Financial Stability Oversight Council.The letter purported to remind firms of the supervisory expectations related to the management of risks in facilitating large market transactions like Archegos’s multiple, concentrated, leveraged positions. This reminder came nearly nine months after the Archegos failure, which caused more than $10 billion in losses at several banks and about $200 billion in market cap losses for shareholders in the targeted stocks.

Bankers aren’t allowed to use WhatsApp. Why are they still doing it? - Large Wall Street banks are being brought to task for widespread employee use of unmonitored communications channels like WhatsApp. In December, the Securities and Exchange Commission charged JPMorgan Securities with “widespread and longstanding failures by the firm and its employees to maintain and preserve written communications.” JPMorgan agreed to pay $200 million in fines to the SEC and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. The SEC said the bank’s employees used WhatsApp, personal email and text messages to discuss work matters, and those interactions were not archived as required under federal securities laws. “Supervisors, including managing directors and other senior supervisors — the very people responsible for implementing and ensuring compliance with JPMS’s policies and procedures — used their personal devices to communicate about the firm’s securities business,” the SEC said in its announcement. It began an industrywide investigation that has now engulfed HSBC Holdings, Goldman Sachs and Citigroup. Last week, Deutsche Bank said it was conducting an internal probe into the extent to which staff used private messaging channels such as WhatsApp, which suggests it may be part of a regulator’s crackdown, too.

"Phone Hasn't Stopped Ringing" - The World's Ultra Rich Are Panic Buying Doomsday Bunkers Russian President Vladimir Putin's move to place his nuclear forces on heightened alert as the invasion of Ukraine continues for the fifth day has increased demand for custom-made doomsday bunkers for the paranoid rich. Gary Lynch, the general manager of Texas-based Rising S Co., told The Sun that underground doomsday bunker demand is up more than 1000% since Russian troops invaded Ukraine on Feb. 24. "Typically, I'll sell between two and six shelters a month - and usually winter is a quiet time for us."But I sold five units alone on Thursday, and I've sold two more already today - there's no telling how many more [orders] we will get."The phone hasn't stopped ringing, and we've been sending out so many quotes," added Lynch.Readers may recall hearing about Rising S in the early days of the COVID pandemic and social unrest as underground bunkers were in high demand. The five doomsday bunkers sold on the Russian invasion day ranged between $70,000 to $240,000. Bunkers start as low as $40,000 and can reach multi-million-dollar, depending on the client's needs. Lynch said interest in his doomsday bunkers is pouring in worldwide: "I've gotten inquiries from Italy. I've gotten an inquiry from the United Kingdom, from Denmark, from Japan, from Canada, from the USA - and that's just from over the weekend. "The interest isn't just isolated to the US, it's everywhere."Since the invasion, people in New Zealand, Australia, the US, Canada, and United Kingdom are panic searching "doomsday bunker." The search trend exploded to highs not seen a year at the end of last week.

One Bank Sees 10% Chance Of "Civilization-Ending Global Nuclear War", Says Buy Stocks Anyway -In a note published with the shocking title "Rising Risk Of A Nuclear Apocalypse", Berezin writes that "the risk of Armageddon has risen dramatically" and is now at an "uncomfortably high 10% chance" for the following reasons:

• if Putin feels that he has no future, he may try to take everyone down with him. The collapse in the ruble, and what is sure to be a major plunge of living standards across Russia, could foment internal opposition to Putin. A quiet retirement is not an option for him.
• Although there is a huge margin of error around any estimate, subjectively, we would assign an uncomfortably high 10% chance of a civilization-ending global nuclear war over the next 12 months. These odds place some credence on Brandon Carter’s highly controversial Doomsday Argument.

Berezin caveats that even if World War III is ultimately averted, "markets could experience a freakout moment over the next few weeks, similar to what happened at the outset of the pandemic. Google searches for nuclear war are already spiking."Berezin the writes that "the market today reminds me of early 2020" noting that he wrote a report on February 21 of that year entitled "Markets Too Complacent About The Coronavirus,” in which he said that a full-blown pandemic “could lead to 20 million deaths worldwide,” and that “This would likely trigger a global downturn as deep as the Great Recession of 2008/09, with the only consolation being that the recovery would be much more rapid than the one following the financial crisis.”While admitting that a global thermonuclear outcome is still unlikely, Berezin adds that "just to be on the safe side, I picked up a couple of bottles of Potassium Iodide earlier this week. When I checked the pharmacy again yesterday, all the bottles were sold out. They are now being hawked on Amazon for ten times the regular price."Does the spike in risk of a civilization ending event mean one should sell their investments and enjoy what little time may be left? On the contrary, according to the BCA strategist, "despite the risk of nuclear war, it makes sense to stay constructive on stocks over the next 12 months." Why? Because as Art Cashin explained a while back, "If an ICBM is heading your way, the size and composition of your portfolio becomes irrelevant. Thus, from a purely financial perspective, you should largely ignore existential risk, even if you do care about it greatly from a personal perspective."

CFPB seeks to halt illegal auto repossessions by servicers --Huge demand for used cars has prompted the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau to warn about illegal repossessions by auto lenders and servicers.The CFPB issued a compliance bulletin Monday describing ways in which auto repossessions violate the Dodd-Frank Act’s prohibition on engaging in unfair, deceptive or abusive acts or practices.CFPB Director Rohit Chopra said the bureau is concerned that the spike in car prices, due partly to the global microchip shortage, could create incentives for servicers to illegally seize vehicles for their resale value.

Block faces consumer protection probes over Cash App Block, the digital payments company run by Chief Executive Jack Dorsey, is under investigation by the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau and multiple state attorneys general in connection with its Cash App service. The company has received requests “from the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (“CFPB”), as well as from Attorneys General from multiple states, seeking the production of information related to, among other things, Cash App’s handling of customer complaints and disputes,” Block disclosed in a recent regulatory filing. Tiffany Hagler-Geard/Bloomberg Cash App allows users to send money to friends and family, or buy stocks and bitcoin directly from their phone.

Regulators expect to release CRA revamp as soon as this month -- — Federal banking regulators are expected to issue a long-awaited proposal for modernizing requirements under the Community Reinvestment Act as early as this month, officials said Monday.The Federal Reserve, the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. and the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency plan to issue a joint revamp of the anti-redlining law after years ofinteragency tension over the issue during the Trump administration. Last year, acting Comptroller Michal Hsu rescinded a breakaway rule change made in 2020 under former Comptroller Joseph Otting that had for the first time created a different interpretation among the regulators of how banks must comply.

Black Knight Mortgage Monitor for January: "$275 billion in equity withdrawn" in 2021 - Black Knight publishes a monthly Mortgage Monitor report that contains interesting information on the mortgage market and housing. Press Release: Black Knight: Record $4.4 Trillion In Mortgage Originations In 2021; Year Sees $1.2 Trillion In Cash-Out Refis as Homeowners Tap $275 Billion In Equity, A 16-Year HighToday, the Data & Analytics division of Black Knight, Inc. released its latestMortgage Monitor Report, based upon the company's industry-leading mortgage, real estate and public records datasets. This month's report looks into 2021's record-breaking $4.4 trillion in mortgage originations and the distinct shift to an equity-driven refinance market. According to Black Knight Data & Analytics President Ben Graboske, though American homeowners are tapping their homes' equity via cash-out refinances at the highest level since 2005, they are doing so judiciously, at roughly half the rate seen back then.Entering 2021, consensus opinion was that originations would likely come in 20-25% lower than 2020's record-breaking levels," said Graboske. "Our own forecast suggested a slighter decline, on the order of -7%. In the end, total originations came in at $4.4 trillion, actually outpacing the prior record. At $1.7 trillion for the year, purchase lending also hit the highest point ever recorded, while the $2.7 trillion in refinance lending was a bit below 2020 levels. What stands out is the 20% growth in cash-outs over 2021, which accounted for $1.2 trillion in originations last year and $275 billion in equity withdrawn. In Q4 alone, homeowners tapped $80 billion – the most in 15 years – while marking the fifth consecutive quarter of more than 1 million borrowers pulling cash out. And yet, despite that sizable withdrawal, surging home values meant overall tappable equity still grew by nearly $450 billion in the quarter….. Here is a graph on delinquencies from Black Knight:

• • At 3.3%, the national delinquency rate is almost even with pre-pandemic levels and very near the record low set in January 2020
• • Early-stage delinquencies (30- to 60-days past due) edged higher in January, but remain 30% below pre-pandemic levels
• • Serious delinquencies (90+ days delinquent) saw strong improvement (-9%) in the month, but just over twice as many as before the pandemic remain
• • At 859K, there are still almost half a million more seriously delinquent mortgages (including those in active forbearance plans) than there were prior to the pandemic

The second graph shows Black Knight’s estimate of quarterly mortgage equity withdrawal (MEW):

• • Homeowners tapped a combined $80B in equity via cash-out refinances in Q4 – the largest such volume in 15 years and the fifth consecutive quarter of >1M cash-out originations
• • Cash-out withdrawals have doubled over the past two years, with the share of available equity withdrawn hitting its highest level since the Great Recession
  • The current rate of withdrawal as a share of total available (tappable equity) is double the pace of 2018/2019, but only about half of the all-time high in 2006

CoreLogic: Homeowners with Negative Equity Lowest in Over 12 Years --From CoreLogic: Number of U.S. Homeowners in Negative Equity Dropped to Lowest Level in Over 12 Years, CoreLogic Reports: CoreLogic® ... today released the Homeowner Equity Report for the fourth quarter of 2021. The report shows U.S. homeowners with mortgages (which account for roughly 63% of all properties) have seen their equity increase by 29.3% year over year, representing a collective equity gain of over $3.2 trillion, and an average gain of $55,300 per borrower, since the fourth quarter of 2020.U.S. home prices rose 18% year over year in the fourth quarter of 2021, up from the 8% annual gain recorded in the fourth quarter of 2020. The appreciation helped push the national negative equity figure to the lowest in over a dozen years, with just 1.1 million homeowners underwater on their mortgages. Western state homeowners saw the biggest equity gains by dollar value, led by Hawaii, California and Washington. Year-over-year price appreciation increased by 19.1% in January 2022 according to CoreLogic’s latest Home Price Index, though growth is projected to eventually slow over the next 12 months.“Home prices rose 18% during 2021 in the CoreLogic Home Price Index, the largest annual gain recorded in its 45-year history, generating a big increase in home equity wealth,” said Dr. Frank Nothaft, chief economist for CoreLogic. “For low- and moderate-income homeowners, home equity has historically been a major source of wealth.”Negative equity, also referred to as underwater or upside-down mortgages, applies to borrowers who owe more on their mortgages than their homes are currently worth. As of the fourth quarter of 2021, negative equity share, and the quarter-over-quarter and year-over-year changes, were as follows:
• Quarterly change: From the third quarter of 2021 to the fourth quarter of 2021, the total number of mortgaged homes in negative equity decreased by 3% to 1.1 million homes, or 2.1% of all mortgaged properties.
• Annual change: In the fourth quarter of 2020, 1.5 million homes, or 2.8% of all mortgaged properties, were in negative equity. This number decreased by 24.9%, or approximately 380,000 properties, by the fourth quarter of 2021.
• Distribution of negative equity: Of loans in negative equity in the fourth quarter of 2021, 42% had a loan-to-value ratio below 125%, and 58% had a loan-to-value ratio of 125% or higher.
This graph from CoreLogic compares Q4 to Q3 2021 equity distribution by LTV. There are still a few properties with LTV over 125%. But most homeowners have a significant amount of equity. This is a very different picture than at the start of the housing bust when many homeowners had little equity.On a year-over-year basis, the number of homeowners with negative equity has declined from 1.5 million to 1.1 million.

Fed's Flow of Funds: Household Net Worth Increased $5.3 Trillion in Q4 -- The Federal Reserve released the Q4 2021 Flow of Funds report today: Financial Accounts of the United States. -The net worth of households and nonprofits rose to $150.3 trillion during the fourth quarter of 2021. The value of directly and indirectly held corporate equities increased $2.5 trillion and the value of real estate increased $1.5 trillion. ...Household debt increased 8 percent at an annual rate in the fourth quarter of 2021. Consumer credit grew at an annual rate of 6.9 percent, while mortgage debt (excluding charge-offs) grew at an annual rate of 8 percent. The first graph shows Households and Nonprofit net worth as a percent of GDP. With the sharp decline in GDP in Q2 2020, net worth as a percent of GDP increased sharply, and then declined somewhat. But now net worth as a percent of GDP is at a new all-time high.This includes real estate and financial assets (stocks, bonds, pension reserves, deposits, etc) net of liabilities (mostly mortgages). Note that this does NOT include public debt obligations.This graph shows homeowner percent equity since 1952.Household percent equity (as measured by the Fed) collapsed when house prices fell sharply in 2007 and 2008.In Q4 2021, household percent equity (of household real estate) was at 69.2% - up from 68.8% in Q3 This is the highest percent equity since the 1980s.Note: about 30.3% of owner occupied households had no mortgage debt as of April 2010. So, the approximately 50+ million households with mortgages have less than 67.7% equity - and about 1.1 million homeowners still have negative equity.The third graph shows household real estate assets and mortgage debt as a percent of GDP. Note this graph was impacted by the sharp decline in Q2 2020 GDP.Mortgage debt increased by $245 billion in Q4. This is the largest quarterly increase in mortgage debt since 2006.Mortgage debt is up $1.05 trillion from the peak during the housing bubble, but, as a percent of GDP is at 48.9% - down from Q2 - and down from a peak of 73.3% of GDP during the housing bubble.The value of real estate, as a percent of GDP, increased in Q4, and is well above the average of the last 30 years.

 MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest Weekly Survey --From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest MBA Weekly Survey: Mortgage applications increased 8.5 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending March 4, 2022.... The Refinance Index increased 9 percent from the previous week and was 50 percent lower than the same week one year ago. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index increased 9 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index increased 11 percent compared with the previous week and was 7 percent lower than the same week one year ago."Mortgage rates dropped for the first time in 12 weeks, as the war in Ukraine spurred an investor flight to quality, which pushed U.S. Treasury yields lower. A 6-basis-point decline in the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage led to a slight rebound in total refinance activity, with a larger gain in government refinances. Looking ahead, the potential for higher inflation amidst disruptions in oil and other commodity flows will likely lead to a period of volatility in rates as these effects work against each other,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s Associate Vice President of Economic and Industry Forecasting. “Purchase activity also increased, as prospective buyers acted on lower rates and the early start of the spring buying season. The average loan size remained close to record highs, with higher-balance loan applications continuing to dominate growth....The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($647,200 or less) decreased to 4.09 percent from 4.15 percent, with points remaining unchanged at 0.44 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value ratio (LTV) loans.The first graph shows the refinance index since 1990.With higher mortgage rates, the refinance index has declined sharply over the last several months. Refinance activity rebounded slightly as rates fell due to the invasion. The second graph shows the MBA mortgage purchase index.

Sorry... Mortgage Rates Definitely Aren't Still Under 4% -- It's Thursday and thus time once again for Freddie Mac's weekly mortgage rate survey. An industry standard report dating back to the 70s, Freddie's survey rate is standby for multiple news organizations to print their once-a-week mortgage rate color. The net effect is the appearance of a deafening consensus in financial media regarding the going 30yr fixed rate.The problem is that all of those sources are simply reporting Freddie's survey headline. The bigger problem is that Freddie's survey headline often gives the wrong impression about where rates are and how they've been moving. This is a logical consequence of the methodology. Freddie sends the survey out on Monday, gets most of it's responses on Mon/Tue, and then reports "this week's mortgage rates" on Thursday. The net effect is that the survey ends up comparing Mon/Tue rates to last week's Mon/Tue rates. Oftentimes, that doesn't matter. If rates aren't moving very much from day to day, the numbers will be relatively accurate as well as the week-over-week change. It's when volatility surges that the mixed signals show up. And volatility is surging! Rates aren't merely changing a lot from day to day, they're changing multiple times per day in many recent occasions. This week's landscape was especially troublesome for the Freddie survey because Monday's rates were, by far, the lowest. In fact, after adjusting for the upfront points and the fact that many of Freddie's respondents probably didn't even look past last Friday's rate offerings before responding, the 3.85% headline isn't too terribly far from reality. To be clear, rates are no longer anywhere close to that low. The average lender is now definitively up and over 4.25% for the first time since early 2019. In other words, today's rates are the highest in almost 3 years.

 Housing Inventory March 7th Update: Inventory Down 1.4% Week-over-week; New Record Low; Possible Bottom -- Inventory usually declines in the winter, and this is a new record low for this series.This inventory graph is courtesy of Altos Research. As of March 4th, inventory was at 241 thousand (7-day average), compared to 318 thousand for the same week a year ago. That is a decline of 24.2%. A week ago, inventory was at 244 thousand, and was down 24.9% YoY. Inventory was down 1.4% from the previous week.Compared to the same week in 2020, inventory is down 66.5% from 720 thousand.Last year inventory bottomed seasonally in April 2021 - very late in the year. An early key in 2022 will be to watch if inventory bottoms earlier this year.And here is a table of the year-over-year change by week since the beginning of the year. A possible early indicator might be if the YoY decline is less each week.Based on the trend, it appears possible inventory bottomed seasonally last week, and will be up week-over-week in the next report.Mike Simonsen discusses this data regularly on Youtube.

Hotels: Occupancy Rate Down 8% Compared to Same Week in 2019 - From CoStar: STR: US Hotel Performance Down From Previous Week: U.S. hotel performance decreased from the previous week, according to STR‘s latest data through March 5. Feb. 27 through March 5, 2022 (percentage change from comparable week in 2019*):
• Occupancy: 61.2% (-8.2%)
• Average daily rate (ADR): $137.96 (+4.7%)
• Revenue per available room (RevPAR): $84.39 (-3.8%)
*Due to the pandemic impact, STR is measuring recovery against comparable time periods from 2019.
The following graph shows the seasonal pattern for the hotel occupancy rate using the four-week average. The red line is for 2022, black is 2020, blue is the median, and dashed light blue is for 2021. The 4-week average of the occupancy rate is close to the median rate for the previous 20 years (Blue). The 4-week average of the occupancy rate will increase seasonally over the next few weeks.

 BLS: CPI increased 0.8% in February; Core CPI increased 0.5% Note: This is pre-invasion, and there will be sharp increases in energy prices for March.From the BLS: The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.8 percent in February on a seasonally adjusted basis after rising 0.6 percent in January, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 7.9 percent before seasonal adjustment.Increases in the indexes for gasoline, shelter, and food were the largest contributors to the seasonally adjusted all items increase. The gasoline index rose 6.6 percent in February and accounted for almost a third of the all items monthly increase; other energy component indexes were mixed. The food index rose 1.0 percent as the food at home index rose 1.4 percent; both were the largest monthly increases since April 2020.The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.5 percent in February following a 0.6-percent increase the prior month. The shelter index was by far the biggest factor in the increase, with a broad set of indexes also contributing, including those for recreation, household furnishings and operations, motor vehicle insurance, personal care, and airline fares.The all items index rose 7.9 percent for the 12 months ending February. The 12-month increase has been steadily rising and is now the largest since the period ending January 1982. The all items less food and energy index rose 6.4 percent, the largest 12-month change since the period ending August 1982. The energy index rose 25.6 percent over the last year, and the food index increased 7.9 percent, the largest 12-month increase since the period ending July 1981. Both CPI and core CPI were at expectations. I'll post a graph later today after the Cleveland Fed releases the median and trimmed-mean CPI.

Consumer Price Index: February Headline at 7.87% - The Bureau of Labor Statistics released the February Consumer Price Index data this morning. The year-over-year non-seasonally adjusted Headline CPI came in at 7.87%, up from 7.48% the previous month. Year-over-year Core CPI (ex Food and Energy) came in at 6.41%, up from 6.02% the previous month and is above the Fed's 2% PCE target.Here is the introduction from the BLS summary, which leads with the seasonally adjusted monthly data: The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.8 percent in February on a seasonally adjusted basis after rising 0.6 percent in January, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 7.9 percent before seasonal adjustment.Increases in the indexes for gasoline, shelter, and food were the largest contributors to the seasonally adjusted all items increase. The gasoline index rose 6.6 percent in February and accounted for almost a third of the all items monthly increase; other energy component indexes were mixed. The food index rose 1.0 percent as the food at home index rose 1.4 percent; both were the largest monthly increases since April 2020.The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.5 percent in February following a 0.6-percent increase the prior month. The shelter index was by far the biggest factor in the increase, with a broad set of indexes also contributing, including those for recreation, household furnishings and operations, motor vehicle insurance, personal care, and airline fares.The all items index rose 7.9 percent for the 12 months ending February. The 12-month increase has been steadily rising and is now the largest since the period ending January 1982. The all items less food and energy index rose 6.4 percent, the largest 12-month change since the period ending August 1982. The energy index rose 25.6 percent over the last year, and the food index increased 7.9 percent, the largest 12-month increase since the period ending July 1981. Read more. Year-over-year forecasts were 7.9% for Headline and 5.9% for Core. The first chart is an overlay of Headline CPI and Core CPI (the latter excludes Food and Energy) since the turn of the century. The highlighted two percent level is the Federal Reserve's Core inflation target for the CPI's cousin index, the BEA's Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index.

National average gas prices hit record high: analysis -- National average gas prices have reached an all-time high of just over $4.10 a gallon, according to data from the gas price analysis platform GasBuddy.The national average on Monday reached $4.104 a gallon, surpassing the 2008 record of $4.103.Saturday saw the first occasion since 2008 that the national average exceeded $4 a gallon.The increase on Friday fell short of the single-day record increase of 18 cents, but the national average has also set a new record for the biggest increase in a seven-day period. The previous record, set in the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina in 2005, was 49 cents.“Americans have never seen gasoline prices this high, nor have we seen the pace of increases so fast and furious. That combination makes this situation all the more remarkable and intense, with crippling sanctions on Russia curbing their flow of oil, leading to the massive spike in the price of all fuels: gasoline, diesel, jet fuel and more,” Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy, said in a statement.“It’s a dire situation and won’t improve any time soon. The high prices are likely to stick around for not days or weeks, like they did in 2008, but months. GasBuddy now expects the yearly national average to rise to its highest ever recorded,” he added.

California's average gas price tops $5 a gallon for a new record - California drivers are facing the financial impact of the war in Ukraine.The average price of a gallon of unleaded gas has topped $5 in the Golden State, according to AAA. California becomes the first state where this has happened.The price was $5.07 as of Friday, up 13 cents from a day earlier. A month ago, the price was $4.66, and a year ago, it was $3.71.In Sacramento, Friday also set a new record with gas costing $5.03. Prices also set new records in Yolo County, Yuba City, Modesto, Stockton, Lodi and other places across the state.The national average price for a gallon of regular gas stood at $3.84 a gallon Friday, according to AAA. That is the highest price since September 2012 and 11 cents higher than Thursday. Sanctions placed on Russia's economy following its invasion of Ukraine have so far exempted Russian oil exports. But traders have been reluctant to purchase Russian oil due to uncertainty about being able to close the transaction with the limits on the Russian banking sector, as well as concerns about finding oil tankers willing to call on Russian ports to load any oil purchased.

Hold onto your wallets, gas prices are heading to an all-time record high - With gasoline prices at a 14-year high, it's hard to imagine paying even more at the pump. Yet prices are only heading higher. On Sunday, the national average for a gallon of gas hit $4.009, the highest since July 2008, according to data from AAA. An increase in demand along with a reduction in supply is quickly driving up prices at gas stations, the automotive group said. With the recent rise, consumers are now paying 40 cents more than just a week ago. "There are few words to describe the unprecedented rise in gasoline prices over the last week, with massive spikes coast to coast in both gasoline and diesel prices, as oil prices jump to their highest since 2008," said Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy. "Forget the $4 per gallon mark, the nation will soon set new all-time record highs and we could push closer to a national average of $4.50," he said. According to GasBuddy, the average price of gasoline will likely set a new all-time record within a day. The worst may be yet to come, AAA also said, as Russia's war on Ukraine prompts fears of severe supply shortages. More than 50% of the cost of gasoline is based on the price of oil, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration. Depending on where you live, there may already be wild upswings in prices. In Michigan, Indiana, Illinois and Ohio, gas prices jumped 30 cents or more in about a week, according to AAA. In California, the average was $5.343 as of Monday morning but some stations are charging $6 and beyond, according to De Haan. "We've never been in this situation before, with this level of uncertainty," he said.

Trucking industry to Biden: Increase domestic oil production now - — The American Trucking Associations (ATA) is calling on the Biden administration to take immediate steps to boost domestic energy production as gasoline and diesel fuel prices soar on the heels of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. However, there was some cause for hope late Thursday as benchmark U.S. crude oil for April delivery fell $2.68 to $106.02 a barrel Thursday. Brent crude for May delivery fell $1.81 to $109.33 a barrel. But any relief at the pump won’t likely be seen for at least a couple of weeks, according to industry analysts. According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, the average price for a gallon of diesel fuel in the U.S. is still hovering right at $5 per gallon. In a letter sent Thursday afternoon to the White House, the ATA outlined specific actions the U.S. can take to provide relief at the pump for motor carriers and motorists across the country. Fuel is the second largest operating expense for trucking fleets, and surging diesel prices threaten to decimate trucking capacity at a time when the supply chain is already under extreme stress. “The trucking industry is the backbone of the American economy, moving 73 percent of our nation’s freight, or 10 billion tons of goods annually,” wrote Chris Spear, president and CEO of ATA, in the organization’s letter to Biden. “Our ability to do so on a cost-efficient basis for our customers throughout the supply chain depends on certain economic conditions, including fuel prices, which are typically a fleet’s second highest operating expense. Right now, escalating fuel prices are driving up the transportation cost of all goods, adding yet another layer of inflationary pressure on every sector throughout the entire economy.” Spear wrote that the impact is particularly hard on the 97 percent of motor carriers that operate 20 trucks or fewer and are designated as small businesses. “These fleets do not operate at a scale necessary to negotiate lower fuel prices or to offset costs from shippers,” Spear stated in the letter. “Lacking the financial reserves to weather this storm, many of these companies are at risk of failing given current projections for global crude prices over the next 12 months. This would decimate U.S. trucking capacity, unleashing catastrophic consequences for a supply chain that’s already overstressed.”

Gasoline prices to keep climbing, in spite of crude oil pullback - Gasoline costs across Canada are expected to keep smashing records despite a significant mid-week dip in the price of oil. The average Canadian retail fuel price Thursday morning climbed to nearly $1.87 per litre, up from about $1.85 on Wednesday and $1.66 per lire last week, according to gasoline price tracking website GasBuddy.com. The gains came in spite of the first significant pullback in crude prices since the war in Ukraine started and sent demand soaring. On Wednesday, the price of benchmark West Texas Intermediate closed at US$110.36, down nearly 11 per cent from the previous day's trading. WTI hovered around US$110 again mid-morning Thursday. GasBuddy.com analyst Patrick de Haan said while Wednesday's crude selloff is welcome news for drivers, retail prices at the pumps lag behind oil prices by several days. That means, he said on Twitter, that gasoline prices will continue to rise in the immediate future. "Stations haven't fully passed the rise on, so it doesn't mean lower prices yet, it means a slowdown in the increases," de Haan said. "Stations won't have to go up quite as much." Natural Resources Canada data shows the daily national average retail price for gasoline Wednesday was $1.87 per litre. In parts of B.C., including Vancouver, prices have topped $2 per litre this week. Gasoline price forecasting site GasWizard.ca predicts Montreal and Quebec City will break the $2 per litre threshold Thursday, while many Ontario locations could see gas prices as high as $1.90 per litre.

FOCUS-Carmakers face soaring metal costs with Russian supplies at risk -- Russia's invasion of Ukraine is ramping up the price of metals used in cars, from aluminium in the bodywork to palladium in catalytic converters to the high-grade nickel in electric vehicle batteries, and drivers are likely to the foot the bill.While metals have not been the target of Western sanctions yet, some shippers and autoparts suppliers are already steering clear of Russian goods, putting more pressure on carmakers already reeling from a chip shortage and higher energy prices."So what happens from here?" asked Carlos Tavares, chief executive of Stellantis, the world's fourth-biggest automaker, when speaking to reporters last week."First, what happens is that we have an escalation of cost that comes from raw materials and energy that is going to put more pressure on the business model," he said.Aluminium and palladium both hit record highs on Monday while nickel, which is also used to make stainless steel, surged to its highest since 2007.Andreas Weller, chief executive of Aludyne, which makes aluminium and magnesium die-cast parts for automakers, said his European business has seen a 60% rise in the cost of aluminium over the past four months, as well as soaring energy bills.With annual sales of $1.2 billion and a surge of costs in the "hundreds of millions of dollars", Weller, whose company is based in Southfield, Michigan, said he has been forced to ask customers to pay more than the prices already agreed."Some are more understanding and cooperative than others, but we cannot survive without that," Weller, who has four foundries and one machining plant in Europe, told Reuters. Stellantis chief executive Tavares said an end to the chip shortage could help carmakers offset higher metal and energy prices, but he did not expect any resolution to the semiconductor issues this year.

Used Vehicle Wholesale Prices Decline in February- From Manheim Consulting today: Wholesale Used-Vehicle Prices Decline in February - Wholesale used-vehicle prices (on a mix-, mileage-, and seasonally adjusted basis) declined 2.1% in February from January. The Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index declined to 231.3, which was a 36.7% increase from a year ago. The non-adjusted price change in February was a decline of 2.2% compared to January, leaving the unadjusted average price up 32.4% year over year.Manheim Market Report (MMR) values saw weekly price decreases in February that decelerated each week. This index from Manheim Consulting is based on all completed sales transactions at Manheim’s U.S. auctions.The Manheim index suggests used car prices declined in February but are still up 36.7% year-over-year.According to the BLS, "Used cars and trucks" were up 1.5% in January compared to December 2021 (up 19.1% annualized) and up 40.5% year-over-year in January. It seems likely that "Used cars and trucks" will be down in the February CPI report.

Vehicle Sales Mix and Heavy Trucks - The BEA released their estimate of light vehicle sales for February last week. This graph shows the percent of light vehicle sales between passenger cars and trucks / SUVs through February 2022. Over time the mix has changed more and more towards light trucks and SUVs. Only when oil prices are high, does the trend slow or reverse. The percent of light trucks and SUVs was at 79.2% in February 2022 - just below the record high percentage of 80.0% last October. The second graph shows heavy truck sales since 1967 using data from the BEA. The dashed line is the February 2022 seasonally adjusted annual sales rate (SAAR). Heavy truck sales really collapsed during the great recession, falling to a low of 180 thousand SAAR in May 2009. Then heavy truck sales increased to a new all time high of 563 thousand SAAR in September 2019. Note: "Heavy trucks - trucks more than 14,000 pounds gross vehicle weight." Heavy truck sales really declined at the beginning of the pandemic, falling to a low of 299 thousand SAAR in May 2020. Heavy truck sales were at 471 thousand SAAR in February, up from 441 thousand SAAR in January, and up 2% from 460 thousand SAAR in February 2021. Consumers hoping to switch to an all-electric or more fuel-efficient vehicle, while Russia's invasion of Ukraine pushes gas prices to record highs, will largely be out of luck. A combination of supply chain problems, pent-up demand and record-low vehicle inventory levels means many new cars and trucks, including EVs, are already spoken for before they reach dealers lots. Those that are readily available are more often large pickups, SUVs and crossovers, since many automakers dropped or deprioritized small car production in recent years in exchange for vehicles with higher margins. "Even for people who want to switch to electric, they have nowhere to go," said Jessica Caldwell, executive director of insights at Edmunds.com. "Anything you're looking to buy, you're on a waitlist … or even if you're looking to downsize your purchase, you're paying top dollar. It just doesn't make sense to make a move right now." Gas prices have surged since Russian President Vladimir Putin invaded Ukraine two weeks ago. The national average for a gallon of gas is $4.06, up 45 cents in a week and $1.30 more than a year ago, according to AAA. The U.S. and other countries responded to the invasion with sanctions against Russia, including bans or reductions of Russian oil imports. That uncertainty and potential scarcity could continue to show up at the pump. Meanwhile, customers face months, if not years, of wait time to purchase EVs. Luxury models are easier to find, but come at little to no discounts right now.

Rivian spares preorders from price hike to fix 'painful' mistake -- Rivian Automotive Inc has rolled back price hikes on electric vehicles booked before March 1 after facing backlash from customers following a 20% increase in prices. Preorders as of March 1 will not be subject to the new prices, and customers who canceled orders can reinstate them with the original price, Chief Executive Officer RJ Scaringe said in a letter to clients on Thursday. The Amazon-backed company on March 1 increased the base price of the Rivian R1T electric pickup to about $79,500 from $67,500, while the R1S SUV went to $84,500 from $70,000. The price hike spurred some customers to cancel orders and express frustration, accusing the company of "betraying" its early supporters, according to social media postings. "It was wrong and we broke your trust in Rivian," Scaringe wrote. "I have made a lot of mistakes since starting Rivian more than 12 years ago, but this one has been the most painful." Rivian stock, which plunged over 13% on Wednesday, extended losses on Thursday, down 4%.

 BLS: Job Openings "little changed" at 11.3 million in January - From the BLS: Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary The number of job openings was little changed at 11.3 million on the last business day of January, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Hires and total separations were little changed at 6.5 million and 6.1 million, respectively. Within separations, the quits rate decreased to 2.8 percent. The layoffs and discharges rate was little changed at 0.9 percent.The following graph shows job openings (yellow line), hires (dark blue), Layoff, Discharges and other (red column), and Quits (light blue column) from the JOLTS.Note: The difference between JOLTS hires and separations is similar to the CES (payroll survey) net jobs headline numbers. This report is for January, the employment report last Friday was for February.Note that hires (dark blue) and total separations (red and light blue columns stacked) are usually pretty close each month. This is a measure of labor market turnover. When the blue line is above the two stacked columns, the economy is adding net jobs - when it is below the columns, the economy is losing jobs.The huge spike in layoffs and discharges in March 2020 are labeled, but off the chart to better show the usual data.Jobs openings decreased in January to 11.3 million from 11.4 million in December. The number of job openings (yellow) were up 56% year-over-year. Quits were up 28% year-over-year. These are voluntary separations. (See light blue columns at bottom of graph for trend for "quits").

 Job Openings At Record High, 4.8 Million More Than Unemployed Workers - Last month, the BLS reported that the US job market was plagued by a near record 10.925 million job openings. Then moments ago, the BLS published its latest, January JOLTS report according to which job openings had hit a new record high11.263 million, but not really, because just as all other labor data else was adjusted sharply higher for 2022 (presumably to account for broken seasonal factors due to covid), the December job openings were revised by 523 thousand higher to 11.448 million, a number which is now the highest on record, and which means that what would otherwise be a record print of 11.263MM- compared to December unrevised 10.925MM - is actually a decline of 185K job openings compared to the revised 11.448MM. Splitting hairs aside, whether it was in December or January, doesn't matter because as of this moment there is a record number of job openings in the US job market, a phenomenon which Jeff Gundlach yesterday attributed to the surging "crime-force participation rate", claiming that lack of prosecution has made millions of potential workers into hardened shoplifting criminals. Looking at the details, job openings decreased in several industries, with the largest decreases in accommodation and food services (-288,000); transportation, warehousing, and utilities (-132,000); and federal government (-60,000). Job openings increased in other services (+136,000) and in durable goods manufacturing (+85,000). What we find far more remarkable, however, is that amid the continued tightening in the labor market, the bump in job openings meant that there was a new record, or 4.8 million (ignoring last month's upward revision), more vacant jobs than unemployed workers in January, confirming that the US labor market remains woefully, perhaps irreparably cracked. And with far more job openings than unemployed workers, this meant that in December there were again less than 1 unemployed workers - a record low 0.5783 to be exact - for every job opening. And while the number of job openings may have declined sequentially if one uses the adjusted data, this was offset by a modest increase in the number of hires, which rose from 6.450MM to 6.457MM in January. One last observation comes from the January quits rate: after the number of Americans quitting their job hit an all time high 4.510 million in November, it has dropped modestly for two months in a row, and in January reached 4.252 million, which while still one of the highest on record, suggests that at least some workers are starting to stay put instead of bouncing around in hopes of getting a better paycheck elsewhere. The quits rate was 2.8%. Quits decreased in retail trade (-69,000) and in information (-20,000) but increased in finance and insurance (+30,000). The number of quits decreased in the Midwest region.

Labor Shortages Shift to Higher-Paying Industries, “Quits” Decline for Second Month but Still in the Astronomical Zone By Wolf Richter Job openings in January remained at the upper end of the astronomical zone, the second highest ever, just a hair below the record set in December. Companies reported 11.26 million job openings (seasonally adjusted), up by 57%, or by 4.1 million, from January 2020. The astronomical zone started developing in mid-2021. These job openings in the JOLTS data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics are not based on online job postings but on a monthly survey of 21,000 nonfarm businesses and government entities, asking them how many actual job openings they had at the end of the month. “Quits”: 4.25 million workers voluntarily quit their jobs in January (seasonally adjusted), the second month in a row of month-to-month declines, something we haven’t seen since April 2020. The quits remained in the astronomical zone – it’s just that there are fewer people quitting their jobs as companies’ efforts to retain employees by offering higher pay and better working conditions may be bearing fruit. Quits do not include involuntary separations. A high rate of quits with a high rate of hiring – the current conditions – are a sign that companies aggressively poach workers from each other. When I hire someone away from you by offering them the greener grass, I report this new employee as a “hire,” and you report the employee that walked out on you as a “quit.” On net, between the two of us, employment didn’t change. It was just churn. Poaching and the massive churn that comes with it has been the dominant reason for quits, given the large amount of hiring going on at the same time: as employers reported that 4.25 million of their employees quit their jobs, employers also reported that they hired 6.46 million new people. This astronomical rate of quits over the past 10 months shows that power in the labor market has shifted toward workers as many of them either have already found, or a confident that they will find better opportunities somewhere else. And companies need to adjust to that by offering better opportunities, more money, and better working conditions in order to retain their employees. People also quit jobs to exit the labor force – to retire, to spend more time with their stocks and cryptos, to take care of someone, or whatever. And there was a lot of that earlier in the pandemic, but the labor force has been increasing sharply in recent months and is now nearly back to pre-pandemic levels, according to separate data from the BLS on the labor market. The labor force consists of people who either have jobs or are actively looking for a job: The shift in job openings to higher-paying industries. Job openings were very high across all categories of employers, but in some categories started dipping from the astronomical zone, while hitting new records or staying at records in other category of employers. And we’re starting to see a pattern. Job openings fell from records in Leisure and Hospitality, Arts and Entertainment, Retail, Transportation Warehousing and Utilities, and Wholesale Trade. The declines could be a sign that aggressive hiring and retention efforts are starting to bear some fruit, and companies are able to fill some of their job openings.

 Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Increase to 227,000 The DOL reported: In the week ending March 5, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 227,000, an increase of 11,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 1,000 from 215,000 to 216,000. The 4-week moving average was 231,250, an increase of 500 from the previous week's revised average. The previous week's average was revised up by 250 from 230,500 to 230,750.The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims since 1971.The dashed line on the graph is the current 4-week average. The four-week average of weekly unemployment claims increased to 231,250.The previous week was revised up.Weekly claims were higher than the consensus forecast.

Alabama joins Georgia, 20 other states in getting rid of conceal carry permits - Alabama residents will no longer be required to hold a permit to conceal and carry a handgun in the state after Gov. Kay Ivey (R) on Thursday signed a bill effectuating the change into law.The bill, which was passed along party lines with major Republican support and Democrat opposition, takes effect in January of next year, according to a press release from the governor's office.Ivey said she was defending Second Amendment rights in her state."Unlike most states who are doing everything in their power to make it harder for law abiding citizens, Alabama is reaffirming our commitment to defending our Second Amendment rights," the governor said in a statement. "I have always stood up for the rights of law abiding gunowners, and I am proud to do that again."Alabama becomes the 22nd state to not require a permit to conceal and carry a firearm, according to the Pew Research Organization. Last year, six states — Arkansas, Iowa, Montana, Tennessee, Texas and Utah — passed bills bypassing the permit process for some firearms. Also this week, Georgia's state House and Senate passed a similar bill not requiring a permit to conceal and carry a handgun, a measure expected to eventually be signed into law by Gov. Brian Kemp (R).

 Philly schools will drop mask mandate on Wednesday - WHYY The School District of Philadelphia is lifting its mask mandate on Wednesday, March 9. Superintendent William Hite confirmed the change in a message to school staff and families on Tuesday. “Our number one priority remains safely keeping our students in school, full time and in person where we know they learn best and we recognize that this includes a responsibility to move our School District community closer to a sense of normalcy, as COVID-19 conditions allow,” he wrote. Masks will now be optional for all district students and staff, except those in pre-K Head Start programs, which follow federal guidelines. The city’s health department dropped its mask mandate for most indoor spaces last Wednesday, but decided to wait a week before lifting the requirement in schools. “We think this is safe, but we will have a couple of incubation periods — because omicron is so quick — to see if that’s true,” Philadelphia’s Health Commissioner, Cheryl Bettigole, told Radio Times on WHYY, soon after the announcement. “If cases soar then no, we won’t do it. But if cases stay about where they are now we would go ahead and roll back the [school] mask mandate.” Students and staff will be required to wear masks for the week after spring break as an extra precaution, Hite said. Several other large school districts have started to roll back their mask requirements. New York City lifted its school mask mandate on Monday, and Chicago Public Schools plans to go mask optional on March 14. But not all school districts are dropping masks. New Jersey’s statewide school mask mandate expired this week, but Camden, Newark, and Trenton school districts are continuing to require masks, citing low vaccination rates in their communities.

 San Francisco school district lays off 364 educators and staff - Facing a $125 million budget deficit, San Francisco Unified School District (SFUSD) has announced layoffs of 264 full-time and up to 100 part-time employees who will receive layoff notices on March 15. Those affected include 151 teachers, counselors and social workers. United Educators of San Francisco (UESF), the union that claims to represent teachers, has refused to mobilize educators against these cuts, simply advocating that teachers sign a petition. UESF President Cassondra Curiel issued an empty appeal, stating, “There is no financial reason to get rid of these vital educators, who provide essential instruction, services, and programs to students and their families.” Layoff notices became a matter of routine in the aftermath of the 2008 financial crisis and have once again become a yearly occurrence. Though the 2022–2023 state budget is $197 billion and the state anticipates a $31 billion surplus, defending public education is of little concern to the state’s Democratic Party politicians and San Francisco’s school board, which instead obsesses over reactionary racialist politics. The policies of the school board members left them vulnerable to a right-wing campaign to recall three members. This was backed by San Francisco Mayor London Breed, one of the most fervent advocates of in-person learning as the pandemic continues to rage, in order to force parents back to work and increase the wealth of California’s financial elite. With the recall of the three board members and the announced retirement of current Superintendent Vincent Matthews, Breed will create a compliant school board tasked with further assaults on public education and teachers’ salaries as part of the Democratic Party’s funneling of funding to charter schools.

Calls Mount to Cancel Student Debt as Biden Weighs Longer Payment Pause - After a White House official confirmed this week that President Joe Biden is considering further extending a pandemic-related pause on student loan payments, lawmakers and activists renewed calls for debt cancellation.“We have reached a student debt crisis of epic proportions.”While payments are due to resume on May 1, White House Chief of Staff Ronald Klain suggested on a popular podcast that the president may extend the pause and is still sorting out whether he will take further action on the student debt crisis.“This is a GOOD idea!” the group Bold Progressives tweeted with a video of Klain on “Pod Save America.”Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.), a key advocate of student debt cancellation in Congress, agreed, also tweeting Klain’s comments.In response to HuffPost‘s reporting on Klain’s remarks, Congresswoman Marie Newman (D-Ill.) said Saturday that “pausing student loan payments during Covid has allowed Americans to get by.”“We need immediate student debt relief, and deferring payments again is a great step, but we need to do more,” she added.Noting that “education is a pathway to greater opportunity and economic security, yet many Americans simply can’t afford it or become crushed by student loans,” Rep. Ilhan Omar (D-Minn.) told Biden on Saturday that “we must cancel student debt.”Rep. Jesús “Chuy” García (D-Ill.) and Rep. Ayanna Pressley (D-Mass.) also pressured the president to take action on the issue Saturday:Pressley and Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.), who have been leading the fight in Congress with Schumer, participated in a Friday roundtable about how student loan debt impacts Black communities, particularly business owners, entrepreneurs, and other professionals. Advocates of debt cancellation often argue that it is necessary to help address the racial wealth gap in the United States.

Covid Cases Linked to Brain Shrinkage, Cognitive Decline Months Later -Even a mild case of Covid-19 can damage the brain and addle thinking, scientists found in a study that highlights the illness’s alarming impact on mental function.Researchers identified Covid-associated brain damage months after infection, including in the region linked to smell, and shrinkage in size equivalent to as much as a decade of normal aging. The changes were linked to cognitive decline in the study, which was published Monday in the journal Nature.

Researchers identify COVID-19-associated brain damage months after infection -- Contracting the COVID-19 virus may result in damage to brain tissue and cognitive decline, according to new study released on Monday. Researchers from the University of Oxford looked into brain changes in 785 participants, who each received two brain scans, in the long-term UK Biobank study. Among the participants, 401 contracted the coronavirus between the two scans, giving researchers an opportunity to see changes between the first and second scans. Researchers observed a reduction in grey matter thickness in both the orbitofrontal cortex, the part of the brain believed to be associated with decision making, as well as the parahippocampal gyrus, which plays a part in the brain's emotional and behavioral responses. The participants in this study were aged between 51 and 81. Greater markers of tissue damage were also observed in the primary olfactory cortex, which is a part of the brain that receives information from smells. A common symptom of COVID-19 is a loss of taste or smell that can last long after a person has recovered from their infection. The participants who contracted the virus were observed to have experienced a larger reduction in global brain size and were also found to have a greater average cognitive decline. Participants who tested positive for COVID-19 were found to take longer to complete a cognitive test, indicating a worsening of executive function. "It is brain damage, but it is possible that it is reversible,” Gwenaëlle Douaud, lead author of the study and an associate professor at the Nuffield Department of Clinical Neurosciences at Oxford, told NBC News. “But it is still relatively scary because it was in mildly infected people.” Overnight Health Care — Florida sets off COVID-19 vaccine firestorm Queen Elizabeth ends COVID-19 isolation with Trudeau meeting The study also noted that these results were representative of an average and that not all patients who contract COVID-19 will display brain abnormalities. The study also had some limitations, including the lack of information on how severe the individual cases of COVID-19 were, though researchers accounted for which cases resulted in hospitalization. There were also few nonwhite participants in the study, according to researchers, and they were unable to identify specific strains of COVID-19 among the participants. "Whether these abnormal changes are the hallmark of the spread of the pathogenic effects, or of the virus itself in the brain, and whether these may prefigure a future vulnerability of the limbic system in particular, including memory, for these participants, remains to be investigated," read the study.

Long Covid: Even mild Covid is linked to damage to the brain months after infection -During at least the first few months following a coronavirus infection, even mild cases of Covid-19 are associated with subtle tissue damage and accelerated losses in brain regions tied to the sense of smell, as well as a small loss in the brain’s overall volume, a new British study finds. Having mild Covid is also associated with a cognitive function deficit.These are the striking findings of the new study led by University of Oxford investigators, one that leading Covid researchers consider particularly important because it is the first study of the disease’s potential impact on the brain that is based on brain scans taken both before and after participants contracted the coronavirus.“This study design overcomes some of the major limitations of most brain-related studies of Covid-19 to date, which rely on analysis and interpretation at a single time point in people who had Covid-19,” said Dr. Serena S. Spudich, a neurologist at the Yale University School of Medicine, who was not involved in the research.The research, which was published Monday in Nature, also stands out because the lion’s share of its participants apparently had mild Covid — by far, the most common outcome of coronavirus infections. Most of the brain-related studies in this field have focused on those with moderate to severe Covid. Gwenaëlle Douaud, an associate professor at the Nuffield Department of Clinical Neurosciences at Oxford and the paper’s lead author, said that the excess loss of brain volume she and her colleagues observed in brain scans of hundreds of British individuals is equivalent to at least one extra year of normal aging. “It is brain damage, but it is possible that it is reversible,” she said. “But it is still relatively scary because it was in mildly infected people.”Douaud and her team relied on a rich data source: the United Kingdom Biobank. Before the Covid pandemic began, this mammoth database already had on hand tens of thousands of brain MRIs of people in Britain, along with responses to surveys about their diets and lifestyles and results from cognitive function tests. The investigators focused on 401 people between 51 and 81 years old who had tested positive for Covid according to clinical data linked to the Biobank study. They were invited back for a second brain scan, which they received an average of about five months after contracting the coronavirus. Covid was apparently mild in the vast majority of these participants; only 15 of them were hospitalized with the disease. Between the pairs of MRIs, which were separated by an average of about three years, the researchers observed a striking trend among those who had Covid: a greater loss of what’s known as gray matter in the brain, as well as a higher rate of abnormalities in the brain tissue. Gray matter, which appears gray on certain brain scans, is comprised of various cells, including neurons.

Covid can shrink brain as much as decade of ageing, study finds - Even a mild case of Covid-19 can damage the brain and addle thinking, scientists found in a study that highlights the illness’s alarming impact on mental function. Researchers identified Covid-associated brain damage months after infection, including in the region linked to smell, and shrinkage in size equivalent to as much as a decade of normal ageing. The changes were linked to cognitive decline in the study, which was published on Monday in the journal Nature. The findings represent striking evidence of the virus’s impact on the central nervous system. More research will be required to understand whether the evidence from the Wellcome Centre for Integrative Neuroimaging at the University of Oxford means Covid-19 will exacerbate the global burden of dementia — which cost an estimated $1.3 trillion in the year the pandemic began — and other neurodegenerative conditions. “It is a very novel study with conclusive data,” said Avindra Nath, clinical director of the US National Institute of Neurological Disorders and Stroke, who wasn’t involved in the research. “The findings are very intriguing, with important implications for the population at large.” The Sars-CoV-2 virus is widely considered a respiratory pathogen that attacks the lungs. Taking a narrow view of it, however, misses myriad neurologic complications — including confusion, stroke, and neuromuscular disorders — that manifest during the acute phase of the illness. Other effects such as impaired concentration, headache, sensory disturbances, depression and even psychosis may persist for months as part of a constellation of symptoms termed long Covid. To investigate changes in the brain, neuroscientist Gwenaelle Douaud and colleagues leveraged the world’s largest magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) database. Initial MRI scans of the brains of 785 volunteers were taken before the pandemic began as part of UK Biobank research, which marries large-scale genomic and detailed clinical data for half a million people. A subsequent scan was taken an average of 38 months later. By then, 401 participants had tested positive for Covid. “We were quite surprised to see some clear differences in how the brain had changed in the participants who have become infected,” Ms Douaud said in an interview. Whether the effects persist or can be partially reversed as neuronal networks repair requires further investigation, she said. Among those infected an average of 4.5 months before their second scan, the researchers found a greater reduction in grey matter thickness in the regions of the brain associated with smell, known as the orbitofrontal cortex and parahippocampal gyrus. The finding may help explain the impaired olfaction many Covid patients experience as a result of either direct viral damage or inflammation spurred by the body’s immune response to the virus. A loss of grey matter, which makes up the outer most layer of the brain, represents degeneration, said Leah Beauchamp, a neuropharmacologist at the Florey Institute of Neuroscience and Mental Health in Melbourne. “This is really concerning,” she said.

Covid treatment sotrovimab can cause drug-resistant mutation, study finds - Australian virologists have uncovered a drug-resistant mutation in the Covid-19 virus associated with the drug sotrovimab and say without the monitoring of patients given the treatment the mutated virus could spread in the community.The world-first findings, published in the New England Journal of Medicine on Thursday, are the result of an analysis of the first 100 patients in western Sydney during the Delta outbreak in 2021 to be given sotrovimab.Sotrovimab is a monoclonal antibody that is available in many countries to treat vulnerable patients who are at risk of severe disease and death due to Covid-19 infection. Sotrovimab must be administered via infusion within the first five days of Covid-19 infection, and prevents Covid-19 symptoms from becoming severe. It is one of the few human-engineered monoclonal antibodies that can target Omicron.The lead author of the study, Dr Rebecca Rockett, said four of the patients developed resistance to sotrovimab six to 13 days after treatment. The whole genome sequence of the virus analysed from the patients before and after sotrovimab treatment uncovered mutations in a few patients that “made the drug effectively inactive,” Rockett, from the University of Sydney’s Institute for Infectious Diseases, said.“We’re not sure if sotrovimab helps neutralise the virus early on in the infection before it develops resistance. But often drugs are given to treat Covid-19 patients and there’s not really any follow-up done. We realise that you can’t follow every patient with PCR testing or genomic surveillance, but we are trying to advocate for patients that progress to severe disease despite the treatment that we investigate using genomics to see whether they’ve acquired any resistance mutations.”It was important to monitor them because once the patients acquired the mutations, Rockett and her team could still take samples from them and grow the virus in the laboratory, which meant they were still infectious. It meant the patients were at risk of passing the mutated virus on to others.“What we don’t want to see is resistant virus disseminating in the community, because that will mean that a lot of other people can’t use this drug as well.”

‘Appalling’: Moderna Rebuked Over Latest Covid-19 Vaccine Patent Strategy Vaccine equity campaigners on Tuesday accused Moderna of continuing its stranglehold over lifesaving technology in response to the biotechnology company’s announcement that includes a vow to never enforce Covid-19 patents in some lower-income countries.Moderna is clearly feeling the pressure from the millions of people challenging their lucrative monopoly, but their billionaire CEO shouldn’t get to choose who lives and who dies in this pandemic,” said Julia Kosgei, policy advisor at the People’s Vaccine Alliance, in a statement.“Everyone,” she said, “should have access to this lifesaving technology, which is why governments need to waive intellectual property rules and break vaccine monopolies.” In a shift from its stance not to enforce patents for the duration of the pandemic, Modernaannounced Tuesday that it would not enforce the protections for its publicly funded coronavirus vaccine at any time on manufacturers in the 92 countries able to access doses through Gavi’s COVAX Advance Market Commitment mechanism.The World Health Organization’s global messenger RNA (mRNA) vaccine technology transfer hubin South Africa—where researchers last month successfully created an mRNA-based coronavirus vaccine modeled after Moderna’s—would also be covered under that pledge, Politico reported.The company additionally announced a new mRNA vaccine manufacturing plant in Kenya as well as a tool to help allow international researchers access to Moderna’s mRNA platform and “explore novel vaccine designs against prototype viral families in preparation for Disease X.” The intellectual property rights of vaccines developed this way would be jointly owned by the researchers and Moderna, according to FT.“Our pledge further highlights our commitment to global access,” Moderna CEO Stéphane Bancel—whose company stands accused of “continuously putting Africa last in line”—said in a statement.In an interview with Politico, Bancel also defended not working with the WHO hub in South Africa, calling it “not a good use of our time,” as his company’s engineers would be redirected from other work.

Adverse Reactions to COVID Vaccines I Have Come Across -a midwestern doctor - When the COVID vaccines were being developed, I felt the mRNA ones would be pushed through to open up the mRNA market (as Pharma has a dire need to develop new medications and the potential mRNA market is worth trillions), and necessary safety checks would be skipped to make sure mRNA vaccinations came into use. I was initially worried they would prolong the epidemic (as they would prevent people from developing proper immunity to the virus and encourage mutations of the virus) and I had a fear in the future they could lead to significant neurological, autoimmune, fertility and cancer related issues (for example a concerning letter had been published regarding potential effects on fertility). Once I was able to examine Pfizer’s trial, and observed the high rates of acute reactions they were willing to admit occurred (approximately 4x those of the influenza vaccine), I realized those potential issues were much more probable (especially as members of the trial in private groups reported adverse events that did not appear in the trial report) and I ruffled a lot of feathers as I told colleagues I knew to avoid them. Succinctly, I (and others) felt there would likely be a significant number of people developing these chronic health issues, but the number would be small enough to sweep it under the rug. When parts of Pfizer’s IND application to the EMA (Europe’s FDA) were leaked there were numerous red flags that jumped out to me. The most notable was Pfizer being allowed to skip performing the normally required animal studies on Fertility, Genotoxicity (cancer potential), and Autoimmunity studies of their drug. I took this as a tacit admission Pfizer knew there would be very concerning results if these studies were conducted, so the best option they had was to never “do” them. Before the vaccine rollout began, I also noticed that in addition to the full throttle promotion of the vaccine in the media, many outlets stated the vaccine may briefly make you feel awful, but not to worry about it. Given that I have never seen that message provided in the past for any other vaccine, this rang an alarm bell for me, and I had an expectation the vaccine would probably have a chronic side effect profile similar to Gardasil (which was previously regarded by many to the most harmful and unnecessary vaccine on the market). As many of my friends are in Medicine, I was able to observe the roll out from day 1 and noticed the toxicity was worse than reported by Pfizer’s study but in line with my expectations. I immediately noticed that most of my acquaintances who had significant acute reactions had had COVID prior to the vaccine. Similarly, as had been reported by Pfizer, reactions to the second shot were almost always much more severe than the first (this still holds true with the booster in turn producing an even worse reaction). As the common element between the vaccine and a COVID infection were spike proteins, this led me to wonder if the spike protein was allergenic (making COVID largely an allergic disease) or it was cumulatively creating a coagulation of the blood (and other fluids in the body) that eventually hit a threshold people could not handle. My current hypothesis is that both are occurring and exacerbating the other, although there are many other potential mechanisms for spike protein toxicity. Once the vaccine was release to the general public, I began seeing patients appear for various acute autoimmune and neurological conditions (I would classify as “moderate”) immediately following vaccination at a much higher rate than I had expected. Each time they told me the other doctors they saw either insisted the reaction was either not linked to vaccination, or the fact they had the reaction was a really good sign, because if they ended up getting COVID the adverse event would have been much much worse. Shortly after, I then began having friends contact me inquiring if the vaccine could cause a fatal heart attack or stroke, something I had not anticipated would occur. This set off major alarm bells and I tried to warn my coworkers, who would not listen, and repeated the arguments they and others had told my patients. Before long, I realized even if I was powerless to change anything I had a duty to bear witness to what was occurring and document what I encountered. As I began receiving more cases, I decided to try and make the best of the data being received.

COVID-19 vaccine effectiveness is rapidly waning in children -- The fundamental feature of President Biden’s National COVID-19 Preparedness Plan is to ensure there will be no future economic and educational shutdowns whatever the cost to the population. In this regard schools have been the primary focus for the Democrats and Republicans, who understand quite well that economic output is directly related to having children in the classrooms so their parents can work. Yet, there is little discussion in his plan on declining vaccine effectiveness, especially in school-aged children, nor the evolution of coronaviruses with more immune-evading capacities. As the 94-page document notes, during last winter’s massive COVID wave, which killed more than 300,000 people in the US, only 46 percent of K-12 schools were open for in-person learning. The report then suggests a connection between school reopenings and economic performance: “Today, about 99 percent of K through 12 schools are open for in-person learning. And since President Biden took office, there has been historic job growth. The US economy created 6.6 million jobs in 2021—the strongest job growth of any year on record …” The massive wave last winter was triggered by attempts to force schools back to in-person education, followed by record numbers of people traveling and gathering for the Thanksgiving and Christmas holidays. Naturally, with the virus still widely present throughout communities, a devastating surge was the foreseeable result. At the peak of the wave in mid-January 2021, there were about 211,500 pediatric infections reported. During that wave, from the beginning of October 2020 to the end of March 2021, about 170 children died from COVID. The COVID vaccines, which were rolled out in mid-December 2020 and proved effective, became the means by which the federal government, states, and local officials coerced schools to reopen in the fall of 2021. However, two additional waves of COVID infections followed, the first with Delta (peak in September 2021 with 251,781) and then soon after with Omicron (peak in late January 2022 with 1,150,543). Between the beginning of August 2021 and end of February 2022, more than 8.4 million children were infected, accounting for two-thirds of all pediatric COVID cases in the entire first two years of the pandemic. According to the CDC’s tracker, just over 400 children had died from COVID by the end of summer 2021. Since then, another 1,000 children have succumbed, a product of school and day care reopenings that have allowed more virulent and contagious variants to spread unchecked.

Florida to advise against COVID-19 vaccine for healthy kids --Florida’s Department of Health will recommend against coronavirus vaccination for “healthy children,” the state’s surgeon general said Monday, contradicting the guidance from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and other experts. Florida “is going to be the first state to officially recommend against the COVID-19 vaccines for healthy children,” state surgeon general Joseph Ladapo said at the end of a roundtable discussion on the virus response. Ladapo did not provide details such as who would qualify as a healthy child, or go into the reasoning for his decision. The move is an escalation in the divide of Florida’s pandemic response under Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) from that of national experts. The CDC recommends that everyone aged 5 and older get the coronavirus vaccine. Existing vaccines are not yet approved for those younger than 5. While COVID-19 is generally worse in older age groups, the CDC noted that as of mid-October 2021, there were “more than 8,300 COVID-19 related hospitalizations and nearly 100 deaths from COVID-19" among children 5-11, and the coronavirus is one of the top 10 causes of death in that age group. Getting the vaccine helps prevent children from getting seriously ill with the virus if they do contract it and also protects people of other ages in the surrounding community, the CDC noted. “Before recommending COVID-19 vaccination for children, scientists conducted clinical trials with thousands of children and no serious safety concerns were identified,” the CDC adds. The American Academy of Pediatrics also recommends that children get vaccinated. “Vaccinating children will protect children’s health and allow them to fully engage in all of the activities that are so important to their health and development,” the group said last fall when the vaccines were authorized for children 5-11. Later Monday, White House press secretary Jen Psaki was asked during a press briefing if the Biden administration considers Florida's move sound policy. "Absolutely not," Psaki replied. "Let me just note that we know the science. We know the data and what works and what the most effective steps are in protecting people of a range of ages from hospitalization and even death. The FDA and CDC have already weighed in on the safety and efficacy of COVID-19 vaccines for those 5 and older," she said. She added research shows "that unvaccinated teenagers are three times as likely to get COVID" compared to vaccinated ones. Ladapo, a DeSantis appointee, has frequently drawn controversy for questioning the effectiveness of vaccines, and previously declined to say if he himself was vaccinated. DeSantis, seen as a rising GOP star, also previously declined to say if he received the vaccine booster shot. The CDC noted that there have been “rare” instances of myocarditis, an inflammation of the heart in adolescents aged 12-17 after COVID-19 vaccination, but the rates are about 54 cases per million doses in that age group after receiving the Pfizer vaccine.

White House calls Florida advice against vaccinating healthy kids 'deeply disturbing' White House press secretary Jen Psaki on Monday called it "deeply disturbing" for the Florida Department of Health to advise against vaccinating "healthy children" against COVID-19. "Absolutely not," Psaki said when asked if the Florida recommendation was a good policy. "Let me just note that we know the science. We know the data and what works and what the most effective steps are in protecting people of a range of ages from hospitalization and even death. The FDA [Food and Drug Administration] and CDC [Centers for Disease Control and Prevention] have already weighed in on the safety and efficacy of COVID-19 vaccines for those 5 and older.” "We also know through the data that unvaccinated teenagers are three times as likely to be hospitalized if they get COVID than vaccinated teenagers," Psaki continued. "So it’s deeply disturbing that there are politicians peddling conspiracy theories out there and casting doubt on vaccinations when it is our best tool against the virus and the best tool to prevent even teenagers from being hospitalized." The state’s surgeon general, Joseph Ladapo, said the state “is going to be the first state to officially recommend against the COVID-19 vaccines for healthy children.” The advice came at the end of a roundtable discussion on virus response. Ladapo did not provide details such as who would qualify as a healthy child or go into the reasoning behind the decision. The CDC recommends that everyone age 5 and older get the coronavirus vaccine. Existing vaccines are not yet approved for those younger than 5. While COVID-19 has generally produced more severe cases in older age groups, the CDC noted that as of mid-October 2021, there were "more than 8,300 COVID-19 related hospitalizations and nearly 100 deaths from COVID-19" among children 5 to 11, and the coronavirus is one of the top 10 causes of death in that age group.

Florida To Allow Doctors To Use Off-Label Drugs For Early Treatment Of COVID-19 - Repurposed drugs that have been shown to prevent or treat COVID-19 may be prescribed by physicians, the Florida Department of Health said in its new COVID-19 guidance for health care practitioners. The guidance, published on Feb. 24, says that health care practitioners are encouraged to provide early treatment for COVID-19 patients with federally approved generic drugs that they find will work. That’s in addition to the outpatient treatments granted emergency authorization usage (EUA) for people at risk of developing a serious illness. “When recommending COVID-19 treatment options for patients’ individualized health care needs, physicians should exercise their individual clinical judgment and expertise based on their patient’s needs and preferences,” the guidance states. “These options may include emerging treatments backed by quality evidence, with appropriate patient informed consent, including off-label use or as part of a clinical trial.” The new guidance is an effort by Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis to offer health care practitioners protection from lawsuits. He said that it’s important for doctors to be able to have access to these drugs. “We want people to be able to have a right to access these medications, especially if they’re in a situation where nothing else has worked,” DeSantis said in a video announcing the new changes to the COVID-19 guidance. The guidance also states that doctors can make a report to the Agency for Health Care Administration if their hospital prevents them from treating their patients who wish to try certain medications not recommended by the federal health agencies.

 1,800 lives lost: Two years of COVID-19 in Delaware County – WHYY - As the national COVID-19 death toll approaches a grim 1 million, Delaware County held an afternoon vigil Tuesday on the steps of the county courthouse in Media to remember the more than 1,800 lives lost closer to home. “Today, we remember each precious life lost and we vow to unite as a community to do everything we can to end this deadly pandemic,” Delaware County Council Chair Dr. Monica Taylor said. Delaware County Council Chair Dr. Monica Taylor lead a vigil for those that lost their lives to COVID on the courthouse steps on March 8, 2022. (Kimberly Paynter/WHYY) Sunday, March 6 marked two years since the first case of COVID-19 in Pennsylvania was reported in Delco. Since then, proper goodbyes to loved ones have been sparse due to health concerns and travel restrictions. “During times of grief and sorrow, we can lean on each other, our community with our faith to pull us through. As a man who has a very strong faith, please know my heartfelt and deepest prayers are with you,” Councilmember Richard Womack said. With the number of cases taking a nosedive on the second anniversary of the pandemic, county council organized the remembrance vigil, so members of the community could pay tribute to loved ones — as well as frontline health care professionals. “Our health care workers, staff and nursing homes, EMS workers, and medical examiners have experienced immense grief, watching so many suffer and the loss of lives,” Taylor said. “The magnitude of what they are experiencing is truly something most of us can’t begin to fully understand. Our hope is that this memorial will serve as a collective healing for our community.” Standing alongside county elected officials were various state representatives and senators for the area like State Sen. Amanda Cappelletti, who represents parts of Delaware and Montgomery counties. She wants her constituents to know that their losses aren’t just another “statistic.” Pa. State Senator Amanda Cappelletti representing the 17th district said that Delaware County residents must remain vigilant in protecting their communities. (Kimberly Paynter/WHYY) “While we are far from the other side of the pandemic, we must remain vigilant in protecting our family, friends, and neighbors so that we can avoid just one more unimaginable loss or incidence of grief within our communities,” Cappelletti said.

Charts Paint a Grim Picture Two Years Into the Coronavirus Pandemic - The coronavirus pandemic is now stretching into its third year, a grim milestone that calls for another look at the human toll of covid-19, and the unsteady progress in containing it.The charts below tell various aspects of the story, from the deadly force of the disease and its disparate impact to the signs of political polarization and the United States’ struggle to marshal an effective response.Covid rocketed up the list of leading killers in the U.S. like nothing in recent memory. The closest analogue was HIV and AIDS, which ranked among the top 10 causes of death from 1990 to 1996. But even HIV/AIDS never reached higher than eighth on that list.By contrast, covid shot up to third in 2020, its first year of existence, covering only about nine months of the pandemic. Only heart disease and cancer killed more Americans that year.“The leading causes of death are relatively stable over long periods of time, so this is a very striking result,” said Dr. William Schaffner, a professor of preventive medicine and health policy at Vanderbilt University.Covid generally hit people of color harder, a pattern experts trace back to historical disparities in income, geography, medical access, and educational attainment.“This tells us something about our society — it’s a kind report card,” Schaffner said. Studies have shown that illness and prevention are even more strongly correlated with educational background than with income.“There was some effort to correct the disparities,” said Arthur Caplan, a professor of bioethics at New York University’s Grossman School of Medicine. “But these were band-aids on a system that remains broken.”Older people tend to be more vulnerable to disease than younger people, because of weaker immune systems and underlying health problems. That’s been especially true with covid.“Many other infections affect the very young and the very old disproportionately, but covid-19 stands out in being so age-dependent,” said Dr. Monica Gandhi, a professor of medicine at the University of California-San Francisco. “Children were remarkably spared from severe disease in the U.S., as they were worldwide.”Deaths among older Americans, however, were especially widespread in the early days of the pandemic due to the close contact of seniors living in nursing homes.“Some will argue that [the] old are frail anyway, but I find that morally repugnant,” Caplan said. The deaths of so many older people “makes me extremely sad.”The good news, experts say, is that older Americans were the most likely to get vaccinated, with a 91% full vaccination rate for those between ages 65 and 74. This almost certainly prevented many deaths among older people as the pandemic ground on, Schaffner said.

 Coronavirus dashboard for March 8: Omicron looks like it has burned through all of the “dry tinder,” leaving perhaps only 10% of the US population still fully vulnerable to infectionBack in autumn when Delta was raging, I thought that, once it burned through all of the “dry tinder,” so many unvaccinated people would have been infected that cases would dwindle due to there being so few unvaccinated and uninfected people left.Well, it appears that Omicron may have done what I thought Delta was going to do.As of yesterday, cases in the US decreased to 42,000, a decline of over 33% in the last week, almost 95% from their Omicron peak, and the lowest since late last July. Deaths decreased to 1380, a decline of over 25% in the last week, and of almost 50% from their Omicron peak. Still, deaths are lagging cases by slightly over a month. If deaths were to decline 95% from peak as well, that would be only about 130 per day in a month, equivalent to their lows last June.Here is what cases (dotted line) and deaths (solid line) look like for the past 6 months:This shows just how dramatically the Omicron tsunami rolled in and has rolled out as well. But now, here is the same information about cases, with only values at or below the current number of cases shown, all the way back to the start of the pandemic:While as stated above, cases are back to a level last seen 8 months ago, they remain higher than at almost all times during the first 7 months of the pandemic in 2020. Still, cases are probably going to continue to decline, because typically the reversal of trend will emerge in just a few States first and then gradually spread out. But as of now, only two States – Connecticut and Alabama – have more cases than one week ago, and in both of those States, the reason appears to be a data dump.So if deaths continue to decline in line with cases, by 95% from their peak, that would take us down to only 130 deaths per day in a month or so – a level equivalent to the very best numbers last June.A little over a week ago, the CDC reported that“More than 140 million Americans have had the coronavirus, according to estimates from blood tests that reveal antibodies from infection – about double the rate regularly cited by national case counts. “The blood tests count only antibodies from natural infection, including asymptomatic cases, not from vaccination. The study measures the presence of antibodies. It does not indicate whether there is strong protection against subsequent infection.“Infection rates are much higher for children and younger adults, the study found. It estimated that 58 percent of children up to age 11 have antibodies from natural infection, along with the same share of children age 12 to 17.“Just under half of adults up to 49 have been infected, the CDC estimates. The rate drops to 37 percent for people 50 to 64 and 23 percent of people 65 or older:“As of late November, just before the omicron variant began spreading in the United States, the blood test study estimated that 103 million people had been infected. By that measure, 37 million new people caught the virus over two months ending in late January. [which is when the data was last collected].”Late January was just as the Omicron tsunami was peaking. Since then, about another 10 million, or 3%, of the entire US population has had a *confirmed* case of Covid:Note that only 21% of the US population had a confirmed case as of late January, vs. about 42% as estimated by the CDC as of that time; thus, it is likely that an additional 3% has had an *un*confirmed case since then, on top of the 3% confirmed new cases. This gives us a total of 48% (round it to 50%) of the entire US population at some point has been infected by COVID. In the past, for simplicity sake I have estimated that infections were randomly split between those not vaccinated, or not yet vaccinated when infected, and those already vaccinated.In view of the CDC study above, showing that infections have occurred considerably more often among those younger age groups who have had a lower vaccination rate, a more likely ratio is probably something like 2:1 infections having occurred among the unvaccinated vs. the vaccinated. In other words, not just 50% of the unvaccinated have been infected, but probably 2/3’s, or 67%, have been infected.Now consider that, according to the CDC, 65.1% of the entire US population has had two doses of the vaccine, and 76.5% has had at least one shot:What does this mean? A COVID virus particle, when inhaled in the US, has a 65% chance, or almost 2/3’s of it being a fully vaccinated person. Among the remaining 35%, at a ratio of 2:1 infections unvaccinated vs. vaccinated, that means there’s probably another 23% (2/3’s of 35%) chance (rounded to 25%) that it is being inhaled by someone who, while not vaccinated, has already had a COVID infection and has at least some resistance. And at least some percentage of those have had one shot of vaccine. In short, that COVID virus particle has only about a 10% chance of being inhaled by someone with no resistance at all due to vaccination or prior infection. That would show up in a severe decline in new cases to a very low level – which looks to be very likely what we are seeing right now.

Omicron BA.2 subvariant fuels new global surge of the pandemic - The most significant hotspot of the pandemic is now Hong Kong, where per capita rates of infections and deaths have dwarfed all previous surges in every country in the world. Soon after infections spiraled out of control in mid-February, hospitals and then morgues exceeded capacity, with the relatively less vaccinated elderly population most severely affected.On Monday, the 7-day average of daily new deaths per 1 million people in Hong Kong reached 29.18. This is over 50 percent higher than the peak of 18.31 reached in the United Kingdom on January 23, 2021, nearly triple the United States’ peak of 10.22 on January 13, 2021, and higher than the previous world record of 26.2 set in Peru on April 23, 2021. COVID-19 deaths in Hong Kong continue to rise exponentially and could surpass 50 per 1 million people in the coming days.Significantly, the BA.2 Omicron subvariant, with an I1221T mutation on the spike protein, accounts for 100 percent of all sequenced infections in Hong Kong. The city is a canary in the coal mine for the next stage of the pandemic, in which the BA.2 subvariant is forecast to become dominant worldwide.As with the global spread of the BA.1 Omicron subvariant last December, the total reopening of the world economy is causing BA.2 to rapidly spread internationally. Contrary to the narrative spun by the corporate media that COVID-19 is now “endemic” and a stable “new normal” has been reached, reality has come crashing down once again in the third year of this unprecedented crisis.Only 37 days after official global infections reached a peak of 3.44 million on January 24, 2022, the decline abruptly stopped at 1.48 million on March 2 and is once again rising steadily, marking the start of the latest global surge of the pandemic.

Two years since the WHO declared the COVID pandemic: New cases rising once again, driven by the BA.2 subvariant of Omicron - Friday, March 11, marked the second anniversary of the official declaration by the World Health Organization that the outbreak of COVID-19 was a “pandemic.” Two years into this global catastrophe, capitalist governments have effectively declared the pandemic over and announced a return to “normal,” despite persistent high rates of community transmission throughout the world. Dr. Michael Ryan (left) at a conference in 2020 when the WHO declared the pandemic a Public Health emergency of International Concern [Credit: Fabrice Coffrini] Many governments are lifting all mandates and curtailing testing and vaccination efforts. Global vaccination rates are down to levels last seen in May 2021 when campaigns were just underway to vaccinate populations. Vaccine inequity continues to plague lower-income nations. Budgets for pandemic response are being slashed, replaced with a massive infusion of funds to finance the drive to war. Two years ago, when the global death toll stood at less than 5,000, WHO Director-General Dr. Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus refered to the “alarming levels of inaction” from national governments. Today, with the official death toll at more than six million, the response of the ruling class can be termed nothing less than social murder, a crime that continues. The world remains under international health regulations that continue to deem the COVID pandemic a Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC). Some of these requirements include surveillance and mandatory case reporting. According to Clare Wenham, a researcher in global health policy at the London School of Economics, the WHO convenes every three months to reappraise the global situation against three criteria. She told the Financial Times, “If the committee decides the outbreak is no longer unusual and unexpected, no longer risking international spread and no longer requiring a coordinated international effort, the PHEIC ends.” The impact of the pandemic is staggering. Nearly one million people have died in the United States, 1.7 million in Europe, 1.3 million in Asia, 1.2 million in South America, and more than 250,000 in Africa. But these official figures far understate reality. According to the Economist’s modeling, excess deaths from the pandemic are closer to 20 million. This figure has been corroborated in a peer-reviewed study published in The Lancet, which found that excess deaths from the pandemic through December 31, 2021 are three times higher than official figures.

COVID deaths hit 6 million worldwide as Omicron mutation devastates Hong Kong -Two years ago this week, on March 11, 2020, the World Health Organization declared the SARS-CoV-2 outbreak threatening the globe a pandemic. WHO Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus warned at that time, “I’m deeply concerned both by the alarming levels of spread and severity, and by the alarming levels of inaction.” On that day there were fewer than 100,000 documented cases and the global death toll was just under 5,000, but the number of cases outside of China was increasing exponentially as new confirmed cases were reported in country after country. Now the number of reported COVID cases has reached 445 million and the number of reported COVID deaths has passed the 6 million milestone. And the pandemic, after being suppressed for nearly two years in China through its successful Zero COVID policy, has now resurfaced in at least one part of that country, the autonomous trading center of Hong Kong. Even the latest horrific figures on deaths and infections are official totals only, missing enormous numbers of pandemic victims, particularly in the poorer countries. According to estimates of global COVID infections by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) the number of new cases in 2022 alone has already exceeded 2.5 billion, due to the extreme contagiousness of the Omicron variants. One widely cited estimate of the global excess death toll is 19.9 million (according to the Economist), or 3.3 times the official number. Not all the excess deaths are directly caused by SARS-CoV-2, but they have taken place because of the impact of the pandemic, and as a consequence of the policies adopted by capitalist governments around the world that have chosen to force the world’s people to endure a continued assault by a deadly pathogen rather than carry out basic public health measures to eliminate it once and for all. “Confirmed deaths represent a fraction of the true number of deaths due to COVID, mostly because of limited testing, and challenges in the attribution of the cause of death. In some, mostly rich, countries that fraction is high, and the official tally can be considered to be fairly accurate, but in others it is highly underestimated.”

COVID cases explode in South Korea ahead of presidential election -COVID-19 is currently raging out of control in South Korea only days before the country’s March 9 presidential election. Daily cases have surged to over 250,000 new infections while the death toll has reached all-time highs as well. Neither the current Moon Jae-in administration nor any of the presidential candidates have proposed any measures to stop the spread of the deadly virus. On Friday, new cases had increased by 2.6 times compared to two weeks earlier, according to health authorities. On March 4, the number of daily cases reached a record high of 266,850. In little more than a month, daily cases have exploded since first topping 10,000 on January 26. The current positivity rate of those tested is approximately 50 percent. Last week, 1,013 people died, double the number of deaths the previous week. This includes a record 216 people who passed away on March 5 alone. These grim facts expose the fraudulent narrative that the Omicron variant is milder and less dangerous. A medical worker in a booth takes a nasal sample from a man at a makeshift testing site in Seoul, South Korea, Wednesday, Nov. 24, 2021 (AP Photo/Ahn Young-joon) Despite the surge in cases, Seoul has further reduced the few anti-virus measures remaining. On Saturday, the curfew on businesses such as cafés and restaurants was pushed back by one hour to 11 p.m. Interior Minister Jeon Hae-cheol made clear the decision was taken for the benefit of businesses, not public health. “The government took into consideration the prolonged and worsening hardship of business owners and small merchants despite a series of government compensations and partial easing of social distancing,” Jeon stated. The QR code check-in system confirming vaccinated individuals was “temporarily” suspended on March 1 and all contact tracing is being eliminated as well. That same day, the government dropped all requirements for someone in close contact with a confirmed patient to quarantine or to receive a PCR test. The change came right before the beginning of the new academic year and is certainly meant to keep schools open despite cases spreading among children and adolescents. According to the Korea Disease Control and Prevention Agency, about a quarter of all those testing positive nationwide are under 18. Schools are able to have online classes this week if they choose, but are set to have full in-person teaching from March 14.

Mexico reports 265 more COVID deaths - (Reuters) - Mexico reported 265 more fatalities from COVID-19 on Tuesday, bringing the total death toll since the pandemic began to 320,166, according to health ministry data.

 Brazil passes 650,000 COVID-19 deaths as ruling class adopts “endemic” narrative -- Last week, Brazil reached the terrible milestone of 650,000 recorded COVID-19 deaths, even as the administration of fascistic President Jair Bolsonaro is officially adopting the narrative that the deadly virus has reached an “endemic” stage. In February, the country recorded 22,000 deaths, an average of nearly 800 deaths per day. In an interview with the daily Estadão, Fiocruz epidemiologist Jesem Orellana pointed to the seriousness of the pandemic in Brazil: “The number of about 650,000 known deaths in Brazil is tragically high (the second highest on the planet) and, in practice, is at least 15 percent higher due to underreporting.” Orellana added: “It is not impossible to reach 700,000 or even 800,000 known deaths from COVID-19, because if we continue to put the economic agenda above life, we will continue to have more and more preventable deaths… .” In an interview with SOS Brasil Soberano, neuroscientist Miguel Nicolelis gave the scale of the underreporting scenario in Brazil, which prevents determining the real development of the pandemic in the country. He pointed to estimates by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington of the real number of infections in Brazil during the spread of Omicron: “If the underreporting was already 10 to 20 times in the weeks before Carnaval, now we wouldn’t even be able to calculate... Some models suggest that we passed 2 million cases per day at the peak [of the Omicron variant in January-February].” Countering the narrative promoted since November by the government and corporate media that Omicron is “mild,” Nicolelis explained, “If you add up all causes of death in the last two months, we had more deaths in those two months in 2022 than in the same two months in 2021.” In January and February of last year, Brazil was experiencing the wave of deaths provoked by the Gamma variant, which would reach its peak in March and April, driven by the reopening of schools. Today, one month after the start of compulsory in-person learning and with only 45 percent of children between 5 and 11 having taken the first shot of the vaccine, there is a new outbreak of cases among children in this age group in Brazil. A recent Fiocruz bulletin showed that the number of daily cases of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) in children aged 5 to 11 is already equal to its peak in the last week of 2021, with 400 cases per day. Fiocruz warns that “preliminary laboratory data suggest a halt in the drop in positive results for SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19).” On March 4, Belo Horizonte, the capital of Minas Gerais, registered an increase in COVID-19 ICU bed occupancy from 40.1 percent to 43.7 percent in 24 hours. Today, the occupancy of pediatric ICU beds is 100 percent in Salvador, capital of Bahia, and the Federal District.

COVID-19 infection rates and deaths on the rise in Germany -Although war propaganda has shouldered the pandemic out of the news, the coronavirus is still running rampant in Germany and worldwide. After a brief decline in the infection rate in Germany, the numbers have shot up again in recent days. From Wednesday to Thursday, the seven-day incidence per 100,000 residents rose to 1,174. Within one day, 210,673 infections were registered and 267 died. On Friday, as many as 217,593 people were confirmed to have caught the coronavirus and 291 died. The seven-day incidence rose to over 1,200. Infection rates are extremely high across Germany. In 408 of 411 counties, the seven-day incidence is above 500 and in 290 counties it is above 1,000. A nationwide seven-day incidence of over 1,200 means that more than 1.2 percent of the population is infected with the virus every week. In 29 counties, the incidence even exceeds 2,000. The facts expose the official claim that the Omicron variant is “mild” as a lie. The number of severe cases remains stable and high. The adjusted hospitalization incidence is 12.5 per 100,00 residents, representing 10,000 new hospitalizations in Germany last week alone. Two-thousand coronavirus patients require intensive care. There has been a general increase in hospitalized cases, especially in the last four weeks. The number of deaths is particularly alarming. Just since the beginning of the week, 1,118 people have died in Germany of the coronavirus, including many young people. On average, at least one child has died every week since the beginning of winter. Fuelling the number of severe cases and deaths is, among other things, the continued growth of outbreaks in medical facilities and nursing homes. In the past week, 208 active outbreaks in medical facilities were officially reported (compared to 187 the previous week) as well as 517 outbreaks in nursing homes and homes for the elderly (472 the previous week). In nursing homes and homes for the elderly, an average of 13 people were infected in each outbreak. About nine percent of those infected in medical facilities outbreaks died from the infection. In nursing homes and homes for the elderly, the figure is as high as 13 percent. This week there were 149 more mortal cases than the week before.

Weekly confirmed COVID-19 cases up almost 80 pct in Netherlands-Xinhua (Xinhua) -- The number of positive COVID-19 tests in the Netherlands increased by almost 80 percent in the past week, the National Institute for Public Health and the Environment (RIVM) said on Tuesday. In its weekly update, the RIVM reported that between March 1 and March 8, the number of people who tested positive for COVID-19 rose by 79 percent to 439,775 from 245,898 the week before. The increase follows several weeks of declines."This significant increase is a combined effect of the Carnival week and the relaxed measures," the RIVM said.In the middle of February, just after the Omicron wave reached its peak, the Dutch government decided to lift almost all COVID-19 restrictions and "return to normal life."The current increase was highest in the regions that held Carnival celebrations between Feb. 26 and March 1, notably in the southern provinces of Limburg and North Brabant. The increase in the number of new infections was less marked in the country's other regions.

‘COVID Free’ Outdoor Music Festival Infects 1,000 Partiers - More than 1,000 coronavirus infections have been linked to a music festival in the Netherlands earlier this month in a blow that comes weeks after the country had lifted most lockdown measures because new infections were dropping. Organizers of the two-day Verknipt festival have insisted that the 20,000 people who attended the event in Utrecht earlier this month were required to show proof using a QR code that they were vaccinated, had recently recovered from a coronavirus infection, or had a negative COVID-19 test. Dutch News first reported that in spite of the “test for entry” efforts, roughly 1,050 people attendees have since tested positive for COVID. The staggering total is expected to continue to climb in the coming days. “We cannot say that all these people were infected at the festival itself,” Utrecht’s regional health board spokesman Lennart van Trigt said, according to CNBC. “It could also be possible that they’ve been infected while traveling to the festival or in the evening before going to the festival or having an after-party.” Attendees were permitted to test for COVID-19 up to 40 hours before the event, leaving a potential opening for festival-goers to contract the virus while visiting friends and going to bars and clubs before the event had started, van Trigt said. “We’ve found out now that this period is too long,” he added. Recently vaccinated people, who may still have been susceptible to the virus, were also allowed into the festival—even though it takes weeks after a jab to reach full immunity. “We were a bit too trigger happy,” van Trigt said. The superspreader disaster comes as the Netherlands has reintroduced restrictions on bars, restaurants, and nightclubs to stop a spate of infections among young adults, weeks after most lockdown measures had been lifted and the country appeared to have its caseload of new infections under control. Utrecht Mayor Sharon Dijksma attended the event and noted on Twitter that the festival scene, where so many people went without masks and social distancing was all but ignored, was “special and a little tense,” according to Dutch News. Coronavirus cases had climbed after the loosening of restrictions on bars and clubs at the end of June. Most infections have occurred in nightlife settings and parties with high numbers of people, according to a government health measures memo.The country’s parliament was recalled from summer recess for further discussion over the staggering leap in infections which on Wednesday surpassed 10,000 in 24 hours for the first time in six months, Reuters noted. Roughly 52,000 cases were reported in the Netherlands last week—a steep jump from the 8,500 positive tests recorded in the week prior.

More COVID-19 cases in 2022 than in 2020 and 2021 combined, researchers say -Practically all coronavirus restrictions in the Netherlands have been lifted, and while life may have returned to normal in many ways, the national COVID-19 infection rate is the highest it has ever been. 2022 sees record number of COVID-19 infections Researchers at the Sanquin blood bank have reported that, since the start of 2022, the Netherlands has recorded more coronavirus infections than were reported in 2020 and 2021 combined. According to chief researcher and microbiologist Hans Zaaijer, the blood bank’s most recent assessment of COVID-19 antibodies found that 55 percent of people aged 18 to 25 have been infected over the past two months. Furthermore, blood sampled from 98 percent of donors have antibodies against the virus. Zaaijer also told the NTR TV programme Atlas that those who have been infected with COVID-19 and have received their vaccination are better protected against the virus, and that the antibodies remain in their blood for a longer period of time. On the other hand, at the end of last year, he said that virtually no antibodies were detected in the blood of those who had received either the Janssen or AstraZeneca vaccines and emphasised the importance of booster shots. While the official research report is yet to be published, Zaaijer’s update comes as the Netherlands faces a record daily infection rate. The weekly report published by the National Institute for Public Health and Environment (RIVM) on Tuesday revealed that figures were once again on the rise, with almost 440.000 positive tests recorded between March 1 and March 8 - an increase of 79 percent compared to the previous week. 70 percent of all tests carried out by the GGD came back positive, with the highest infection rates recorded in North Brabant and Limburg - areas that recently celebrated the first carnival since 2020. In some regions and cities in the south, the RIVM says the infection rate per 100.000 inhabitants was the highest it has been since the start of the pandemic. While the infection rate rises, the number of COVID-19 patients being treated in hospitals remains stable, and the number of patients in intensive care continues to fall. But, the RIVM has pointed out that the recent increase in positive tests could impact the hospitalisation rate over the course of the next two weeks.

Too soon? Covid cases on the rise as France prepares to lift restrictions- The latest upturn in infections is cause for concern as France prepares to lift most Covid-19 restrictions on Monday, with some health workers lamenting a premature move dictated by political imperatives ahead of the country’s presidential election. Crowded out by the war in Ukraine and France’s looming presidential contest, Covid-19 has all but vanished from the French news in recent weeks. And yet the pandemic that brought the world to a standstill in 2020 is far from over. In fact, after weeks of steady decline, Covid infections are creeping up again, according to the public health body, Santé publique France. The number of new infections topped 73,000 on Friday, up from 60,000 a week before. The more accurate 7-day average pointed to almost 70,000 new cases per day – a 20% increase week-on-week. The national average conceals significant regional disparities, says Guillaume Rozier, founder of the government-sponsored website CovidTracker, establishing a link between the uptick in cases and French regions’ staggered return to school after the winter holidays. “The rise in cases is most apparent in northern France and along the Mediterranean coast, roughly corresponding to the areas where children returned to school earliest (on February 21),” he explained. The schools’ rentrée is known to drive infections as pupils, teachers and parents mingle after the Winter break. Health experts have also flagged a slackening of social distancing measures as people lower their guard. Another potential infection driver is the spread of Omicron’s BA.2 subvariant, which early studies suggest could be up to 30% more infectious than the strain that was prevalent so far. France is not alone in registering an uptick in cases, with Germany, Britain and the Netherlands reporting similar trends. However, like its European peers, the French government is determined to stick to its timetable to lift restrictions.

Covid-19 cases rise in UK, record levels in Scotland - Covid-19 infections have risen in the UK, with levels in Scotland at a record high, new figures show. It is the first time since the end of January that England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland have seen a simultaneous week-on-week increase in infections, and is the clearest indication yet that the virus is once again becoming more prevalent throughout the UK. Around one in 25 people in private households in England had Covid-19 in the week to 5 March, or 2.1 million people, according to the Office for National Statistics (ONS). This is up from one in 30, or 1.9 million people, in the previous week, and comes after three successive weeks where infections in England were estimated to have fallen. By contrast Scotland has now seen infection levels rise for six weeks in a row, with 299,900 people likely to have had coronavirus last week, the equivalent of one in 18. This is the highest figure for Scotland since estimates began in autumn 2020, according to analysis by the PA news agency. The previous record was 297,400 people in the first week of this year. Wales and Northern Ireland both saw a jump in prevalence last week following a period of falling infections, with the estimate for Wales up from 94,200 people to 97,900, one in 30, and Northern Ireland up from 106,300 people to 143,800, one in 13. Across the UK as a whole, 2.6 million people were estimated to have coronavirus last week, up from 2.4 million. The number stood at 4.3 million at the start of the year. The ONS infection survey is the most reliable measure of the prevalence of coronavirus in the UK, and its latest findings provide the clearest indication so far that the broad downwards trend in infections since January has come to a halt. Estimates for the next few weeks will confirm whether a new upward trend in infections is now under way. The ONS survey uses a representative sample of swab tests collected regularly from tens of thousands of households, and is therefore able to estimate the percentage of people likely to test positive for Covid-19 at any one point in time, regardless of when they caught the virus, how many times they have had it and whether they have symptoms. The survey is far more reflective of the level of Covid-19 in the UK than the number of cases announced each day by the Government, which includes only those people who have reported themselves as testing positive for the virus, and is being increasingly affected by how many people are coming forward for tests or who are taking a test because they know they have coronavirus symptoms. Today's ONS figures come after separate data this week suggested the slow fall since early January in the number of patients in hospital in the UK with Covid-19 has stopped, with the total rising in recent days. Patient numbers remain well below the levels seen at the peak of the first and second wave of the virus, however. The hospital admission rate in England for patients with Covid-19 stood at 11.3 per 100,000 people in the seven days to 6 March, up from 9.8, the first week-on-week rise since the start of the year, according to the Health Security Agency.

Germany: New daily COVID-19 infections pass 250,000 for first time - Germany recorded a record high number of coronavirus infections, the Robert Koch Institute (RKI) said on Thursday. Over the previous 24 hours, 262,752 people were confirmed infected with COVID-19. That number was 210,673 a week ago. Experts have said the number of cases could be even higher since many German testing facilities were operating with limited capacity. The RKI, Germany's public health agency for infectious diseases, said 259 people died in Germany of COVID-19 on Wednesday. The number of cases per 100,000 people over the last seven days also increased to 1,388.5, the RKI reported. That marks an increase from 1,319 on Wednesday. Since the beginning of the pandemic, 16.5 million people in Germany have been infected with the coronavirus and 125,023 people in the country have died because of or with the virus. The surge in cases comes as the coalition government has agreed on a set of new COVID-19 measures. Current coronavirus restrictions are set to expire on March 19. The new steps are being seen as a compromise between Health Minister Karl Lauterbach of the center-left Social Democrats (SPD) and Justice Minister Marco Buschmann of the business-friendly Free Democrats (FDP). Lauterbach has generally favored a strict approach erring on the side of safety, while the FDP has led calls for strategies enabling a loosening of restrictions. What does the agreement entail? Under the new agreement, only basic measures such as the wearing of masks on public transport, and testing to protect the particularly vulnerable in nursing homes or hospitals would be kept in place. But states would have the option to introduce "hotspot measures" under certain conditions: for example, if infections surge or if a new coronavirus variant of concern emerges.

China reinstates COVID-19 restrictions amid a rise in infections - China is reinstating measures to limit the spread of the coronavirus in several cities amid a spike in infections. Thus far, China has shut down an industrial city, urged residents not to leave Beijing and closed down schools in Shanghai due to an increase in cases. Chinese officials reported 588 new confirmed cases in the 24 hours ending on Friday, but no deaths. That included 134 confirmed cases in the northeastern Jilin province, a number which prompted a shutdown of Changchun, a city with 9 million residents, The Associated Press reported.On Saturday, the mayor of Jilin was replaced, as was the mayor of Changchun, according to the AP.China operates under a "zero tolerance" strategy, finding and isolating every case and sometimes conducting mass testing in cities and towns.Hong Kong has also battled a wave of the novel coronavirus since February, and hospitals, morgues and isolation centers are overflowing. On Friday, 29,381 new infections and 196 deaths were reported in the city, according to Reuters.The city's leader, Carrie Lam, warned they were not at the peak of the wave yet, and urged more residents to get vaccinated. Ninety percent of residents have received at least one dose of the vaccine, but only 53 percent of those over 80 years old have been vaccinated, Reuters reported. "Over 90 percent of the deaths were those who had not been fully vaccinated. We need to catch up and vaccinate every Hong Kong citizen," Lam said at a news briefing, per Reuters.

Half of U.S. adults were exposed to harmful lead as kids - More than 170 million U.S.-born people who were adults in 2015 were exposed to harmful levels of lead as children, a new study estimates. Researchers from Florida State University and Duke University used census information and data on levels of lead in the blood and consumption of leaded gasoline to examine the breadth of early-childhood exposure in the U.S. between 1940 and 2015.In a paper published Monday in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, the researchers estimated that half the U.S. adult population in 2015 had been exposed to lead levels surpassing five micrograms per deciliter — the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s threshold for harmful lead exposure at the time. The scientists also found that 90% of children born in the U.S. between 1950 and 1981 had blood lead levels higher than the CDC threshold. And the researchers found a significant impact on cognitive development: Exposure to lead in early childhood resulted in an average 2.6-point drop in IQ. The researchers examined only lead exposure caused by leaded gasoline, the dominant form of exposure from the 1940s to the late 1980s, according to data from the U.S. Geological Survey. Leaded gasoline for on-road vehicles was phased out starting in the 1970s and banned in 1996. Though the U.S. has in recent decades implemented tougher regulations to protect against lead poisoning, the public health impacts of exposure could last for several decades, experts told the Associated Press. “Childhood lead exposure is not just here and now. It’s going to impact your lifelong health,”In addition to its impacts on cognitive development, lead exposure in early childhood increases the risk of developing hypertension and heart disease, experts said. “I think the connection to IQ is larger than we thought, and it’s startlingly large,” Schwaba said the study’s use of an average to represent the cognitive impacts of lead exposure could result in an overestimation of affects in some people and an underestimation in others. Previous research on the relationship between lead exposure and IQ found a similar impact, though over a shorter study period.Bruce Lanphea said his 2005 study found that the initial exposure to lead was the most harmful when it comes to loss of cognitive ability as measured by IQ.“The more tragic part is that we keep making the same ... mistakes again,” Lanphear said. “First it was lead, then it was air pollution. ... Now it’s PFAS chemicals and phthalates [chemicals used to make plastics more durable]. And it keeps going on and on.

Americans born before 1996 lost a collective 824 MILLION IQ points as a result of lead poisoning from gasoline before its ban, study finds --Lead in gasoline may have had disastrous effects on the health of Americans over the age of 25, a new study finds.Researchers from Duke University in Durham, North Carolina, estimate that a combined 824 million IQ points may have been lost by 170 million Americans born before 1996 from the constant inhalation of lead in the environment exhausted by cars.The lead exposure is likely also responsible for cardiovascular and respiratory issues, though researchers could not quantify the collective harm the same way they could cognitive issues and IQ points.While the U.S. and the UK have both dropped lead out of gasoline, the lingering effects will hurt the population for decades down the line.Aaron Reuben, a PhD candidate at Duke and co-author of the study published Monday in PNAS, told DailyMail.com that much of the harm caused by lead are from 'legacy exposures' - people who were heavily exposed to it before it was strongly regulated late last century.In 1986, the U.S. started to phase out the use of lead in gasoline, before an outright move away from it in 1996. A few years later in 2000, the UK made the same decision.Lead exposure is relatively minor today, having been strongly regulated out of day-to-day life. This was not the case 30 to 40 years ago.'Almost everyone in the [40 to 70 years old] age cohorts had lead exposures as children that would trigger case management,’ Reuben said.‘These are people that are alive and not that old.' The regular exposure from gasoline in particular will likely effect every American born in 1996 or earlier - people as young as 25 years old. Reuben notes that everyone's level of lead exposure depends on the environment they grew up in, as the chemical does the most damage when a person's brain is still young and developing.People who grew up near highways, or in poorer, often Black, communities were most likely to have suffered the worst exposure. The impact on each individual person is limited - with only a few IQ points lost and only a slightly increased risk of heart and cognitive issues.Systemically, though, the lead exposure poses a great issues. The collective loss of intellect across all Americans has a 'brain drain' effect, making the population collectively less smart and innovative.‘The idea is that everyone exposed has likely lost a few IQ points off of there potential,' Reuben said. 'For the individual the impact can be pretty minimal... [for society] we will have fewer geniuses and more people in the [cognitively] impaired range.’

Lead exposure from car exhaust shrinks half of Americans' IQ scores -- Lead-based paint and lead-contaminated air, water, and soil are common sources of lead poisoning in children. But what if we told you that exposure to your car exhaust from leaded gas during childhood has stolen a significant number of your IQ points? Automotive exhaust is a major way in which lead invades our bloodstreams. Lead was added to gasoline to improve engine performance and its consumption rose rapidly in the early 1960s and peaked in the 1970s. By the 1970s, health problems that stemmed from lead became apparent. In the United States, leaded gasoline for use in on-road vehicles was completely phased out as of January 1, 1996. Unfortunately, it was too late. Aaron Reuben and his colleagues at Florida State University have found that essentially everyone born during those two decades is all but guaranteed to have been exposed to destructive levels of lead from car exhaust. Their new study in the journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences calculates that exposure to car exhaust from leaded gas during childhood robbed a collective 824 million IQ points from more than 170 million Americans alive today, which is about half the population of the United States. According to the study, Americans born before 1996 may now be at greater risk for lead-related health problems, such as faster aging of the brain. The researchers revealed that anyone born before the end of 1996, and especially those at the peak of the use of unleaded gas in the 1960s and 1970s, had alarmingly high levels of lead exposure as children. Lead is neurotoxic and can alter the normal activities of the central nervous system. Health experts have said that there is no safe level of exposure at any point in life. The tiniest amounts of lead can cause serious health problems. Young children, especially those younger than six years, are highly vulnerable to lead poising, which can wreck mental and physical development. And at very high levels, lead poisoning can be lethal. “Lead is able to reach the bloodstream once it’s inhaled as dust, or ingested, or consumed in water,” Reuben said. “In the bloodstream, it's able to pass into the brain through the blood-brain barrier, which is quite good at keeping a lot of toxicants and pathogens out of the brain, but not all of them.” The researchers used publicly available data on U.S. childhood blood-lead levels,leaded gas use, and population statistics to determine the possible lifelong burden of lead exposure carried by every American alive in 2015. From the data, they gauged lead's assault on our intelligence by calculating IQ points lost from leaded gas exposure as a proxy for its harmful impact on public health. The results startled them. As of 2015, more than half of the U.S. population had clinically concerning levels of lead in their blood when they were children. This likely resulted in lower IQs and put them at higher risk for other long-term health impairments, such as reduced brain size, greater likelihood of mental illness, and increased cardiovascular disease in adulthood. Lead's toll on intelligence was horrifying: childhood lead exposure may have erased America's cumulative IQ score by an estimated 824 million points – nearly three points per person on average. As per the researchers' calculations, people born in the mid-to-late 1960s may have lost up to six IQ points, and children registering the highest levels of lead in their blood, eight times the current minimum level to initiate clinical concern, fared even worse, losing more than seven IQ points on average.Though dropping a few IQ points may seem negligible, the researchers noted that these changes are sufficient to shift people with below-average cognitive ability (IQ score less than 85) to being classified as having an intellectual disability (IQ score below 70). It appears to be an insult carried in the body in different ways that we're still trying to understand but that can have implications for life," said Reuben.

Pentagon to shut down leaking fuel tank facility in Hawaii (AP) — The Defense Department will permanently shut down the Navy’s massive fuel tank facility in Hawaii that leaked petroleum into Pearl Harbor’s tap water, and will remove all the fuel, the Pentagon said Monday.Pentagon press secretary John Kirby said the decision by Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin is based on a new Pentagon assessment, but also is in line with an order from Hawaii’s Department of Health to drain fuel from the tanks at the Red Hill Bulk Fuel Storage Facility. The tanks, built into the side of a mountain during World War II to protect them from enemy attack, had leaked into a drinking water well and contaminated water at Pearl Harbor homes and offices. Nearly 6,000 people, mostly those living in military housing at or near Joint Base Pearl Harbor-Hickam were sickened, seeking treatment for nausea, headaches, rashes and other ailments. And 4,000 military families were forced out of their homes and are in hotels. Lauren Wright remembers her skin peeling, feeling nauseous and vomiting. Her symptoms disappeared only when she stopped drinking, showering and washing dishes with her home’s water. Since early December, Wright, her sailor husband and their three children ages 7 to 17 have been among the thousands of military families living in Honolulu hotels paid for by the Navy so they can have clean water. She said her water at home still has a sheen and smell. The Wright family hopes to find a new home and said she and her family won’t be drinking the water, even after officials sign off on its safety.

Pentagon shutting down fuel tank facility in Hawaii that leaked into drinking water - Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin on Monday directed the Navy to permanently close a fuel storage facility in Hawaii that leaked petroleum into a drinking water system for 93,000 people late last year. “After close consultation with senior civilian and military leaders, I have decided to defuel and permanently close the Red Hill bulk fuel storage facility in Hawaii,” Austin said in a statement released Monday. Austin ordered Navy Secretary Carlos Del Toro and U.S. Indo Pacific Command head Admiral John Aquilino “to take all steps necessary” to shutter the facility at Joint Base Pearl Harbor-Hickam in Honolulu, Pentagon press secretary John Kirby later told reporters. Austin said the effort will be a “multi-step process,” during which the Defense Department will work closely with the Hawaii Department of Health and with the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). The directive caps a somewhat contentious back and forth between defense officials and Hawaii’s government leaders after fuel leaked from tanks at the storage facility in November and contaminated Pearl Harbor’s drinking water, sickening nearly 6,000 people, most of whom lived in military housing. The aging tanks had been built during World War II and were used to store fuel for ships and aircraft to be refueled at Pearl Harbor. Hawaii officials quickly issued an emergency order for the Navy to drain the fuel tanks and not use them again until it can prove it can do so safely. The service initially said it would comply but then in February decided to fight the directive, angering state leaders. Austin’s decision on Monday is based on a “thorough review of the facility’s long-term future,” Kirby said, adding that the defueling “will probably take somewhere within 12 months or so” to fully drain and close it. Department of Defense (DOD) leaders “remain very, very focused on this issue and the impact it's had on families, communities, and of course, our responsibilities in both national security and being good stewards of our resources and the environment,” Kirby said. The Navy will now work to defuel Red Hill and reposition the fuel to locations on land and fueling ships based at sea. Kirby said the move will better disperse fuel which will allow the U.S. military “to meet future challenges in the Pacific region while ensuring environmental stewardship and protecting the population.” An assessment team that had already been sent to Red Hill to figure out how to make the facility operational again will “shift their focus” to figure out how to go about the defueling, Kirby explained. That report is due to Austin by the end of April.

Tire Particle Pollution May Be Harming Freshwater and Estuary Ecosystems - Tiny particles that rub off of tires are likely harming freshwater and coastal estuary ecosystems, a pair of recent studies from Oregon State University (OSU) found. The first study, published in Chemosphere last month, found that exposure to tire particles had harmful effects on organisms from coastal estuaries, while the second, published in the Journal of Hazardous Materials, found the same for freshwater organisms. Both studies grow out of concern with the number of tire particles in the environment. “I feel in particular with tire particles that everyone is measuring how much is out there, but very few groups are measuring what impact they are having,” OSU assistant professor and ecotoxicologist Susanne Brander, who led the coastal study, said in a press release. “That’s really the gap we were trying to patch up here.”Rubber tires are essential for modern transportation, as Salon pointed out, but they also shed. After a lifetime of rolling along the highway, running over gravel and jaring against potholes, the average tire will lose around 30 percent of its tread. This means that materials from tires – which include synthetic rubber, filling agents, oils and other additives – join the other synthetic particles currently polluting the environment. A 2017 study estimated that 1.5 million metric tons of tire particles enter the U.S. environment every year. Further, it calculated that tire particles account for five to 10 percent of ocean plastic pollution. Tire pollution contributes to the problem of both microplastic and nanoplastic pollution. Microplastics are smaller than 5 millimeters, while nanoplastics are smaller than a micrometer. “The focus on microplastics and now nanoplastics is still relatively new,” OSU professor Stacey Harper, who led the freshwater study, said in the press release. “We’re now at the point of making policy decisions that we don’t have the science for. That’s why we are scrambling to supply that science.”

EPA rule would make heavy trucks cut smog, soot pollution - The Biden administration is proposing stronger pollution regulations for new tractor-trailer rigs that would clean up smoky diesel engines and encourage new technologies during the next two decades. The proposal released Monday by the Environmental Protection Agency would require the industry to cut smog-and-soot-forming nitrogen oxide emissions by up to 90% per truck over current standards by 2031. The emissions can cause respiratory problems in humans. New rules would start in 2027 to limit the emissions from nearly 27 million heavy trucks and buses nationwide. Although truck manufacturers are working on battery-electric and hydrogen fuel cell powertrains, the EPA says the proposal is not a zero-emissions truck requirement. Rather, the agency says there are pollution control devices in development that can keep diesels in use and still clean the air. The EPA also is drawing up stronger limits for heat-trapping greenhouse gas emissions. Current standards would be updated starting in 2027 and stronger new standards would begin in 2030. Requirements were last updated in 2001, with the next big step coming in 2024. The stronger new standards would not apply to old trucks, limiting the impact of the new rules. Environmental groups praised the EPA's action, but many urged the administration to move quickly on the proposal and then go farther toward requiring zero-emissions trucks. "We really need to be doing both of these things simultaneously," said Patricio Portillo, senior advocate for clean vehicles at the Natural Resources Defense Council. Portillo said he was disappointed that the EPA didn't set requirements for hydrogen or electric truck sales as California and five other states now do. He said the 90% reduction number sounds good, but still leaves a lot of pollution in the air. "The only way to get that out is to get to zero emissions," he said. Truck engine makers and other industry groups said they favor cutting pollution, but raised concerns that the requirements may not be technically possible or could make trucks costly and unreliable. "We look forward to working with EPA to ensure that the final version of today's rule is practical, technically feasible, cost-effective, and will result in the necessary fleet turnover to achieve the nation's environmental objectives," Truck and Engine Manufacturers Association President Jed Mandel said in a statement.

EPA's truck emissions proposal faces competing criticisms - At a White House ceremony yesterday, EPA Administrator Michael Regan hailed a planned tightening of heavy-duty truck emission standards as a step toward slashing smog-forming pollution on the road and ushering in even cleaner alternatives (Greenwire, March 7).Almost immediately, however, the agency was buffeted by competing calls either to proceed more cautiously or act more aggressively.“EPA’s New Trucks Rule Fails to Deliver” was the title of an Earthjustice news release urging the agency to push the trucking industry toward electric rigs.“For the sake of our lungs, our health and our climate, the future of trucking in this country has got to be zero emissions,” said Paul Cort, director of the group’s “Right to Zero” campaign. Pressing a similar point was the American Council for an Energy-Efficient Economy, which focused on the importance of cutting greenhouse gas emissions. “The plan today doesn’t take advantage of the dramatic advances in electric trucks, and EPA will need to strengthen it to accelerate the transition while maintaining progress on conventional vehicles,” senior transportation researcher Avi Mersky said in a separate release. “We can’t leave tools on the table.”But at the Diesel Technology Forum, a trade group whose members include engine manufacturers, Executive Director Allen Schaeffer suggested that moving too quickly on the electrification front could lead truckers to hold on to older, higher-polluting vehicles longer.It “is vitally important that EPA get this right,” Schaeffer said. “The right rule will enable further improvements in diesel technology and continued investments in new vehicles that will be important to sustain progress toward meeting both clean air and climate goals.”Under the newly issued proposal, EPA is floating two options to cut heavy-duty trucks’ releases of smog-forming nitrogen oxides (NOx). The first would take a two-stage approach by successively tightening standards for model year 2027 vehicles and again for the 2031 models. The second would make a one-time tightening only, starting in model year 2027. While both approaches would slash emissions in the long term, EPA expects that the first would chop them by more than 60 percent by 2045 in comparison with what they would otherwise have been. The second option would cut NOx releases by 47 percent, according to estimates in the draft rule.While EPA staffers plan to take public feedback on both alternatives, “we currently believe that Option 1 may be a more appropriate level of stringency as it would result in a greater level of achievable emission reduction for the model years proposed,” they wrote in the draft.The agency last strengthened NOx limits for new tractor-trailers and other heavy-duty trucks a generation ago in 2001. It now hopes to have the new standards in place by the end of this year. A driving force is the need to help states meet the agency’s latest ground-level ozone standard of 70 parts per billion. Ozone, the main ingredient in smog, is linked to asthma attacks in children and other respiratory problems. More than 122 million people live in areas that are flunking the 70-ppb limit, the proposed rule notes.

How Redlining Contributed to Air Pollution Across America - The New York Times -- Urban neighborhoods that were redlined by federal officials in the 1930s tended to have higher levels of harmful air pollution eight decades later, a new study has found, adding to a body of evidence that reveals how racist policies in the past have contributed to inequalities across the United States today.In the wake of the Great Depression, when the federal government graded neighborhoods in hundreds of cities for real estate investment, Black and immigrant areas were typically outlined in red on maps to denote risky places to lend. Racial discrimination in housing was outlawed in 1968. But the redlining maps entrenched discriminatory practices whose effects reverberate nearly a century later.To this day, historically redlined neighborhoods are more likely to have high populations of Black, Latino and Asian residents than areas that were favorably assessed at the time.California’s East Bay is a clear example.The neighborhoods within Berkeley and Oakland that were redlined sit on lower-lying land, closer to industry and bisected by major highways. People in those areas experience levels of nitrogen dioxide that are twice as high as in the areas that federal surveyors in the 1930s designated as “best,” or most favored for investment, according to the new pollution study. Many children in West Oakland, a historically redlined neighborhood, suffer from asthma related to traffic and industrial pollution. Residents have long struggled to fend off development projects that make the air even worse. “Those people don’t have the voting capacity, or the elected officials, or the money to hire the lawyers, to fight this,” The new study’s lead author, Haley M. Lane, said she was surprised to find that the differences in air pollution exposure between redlined and better-rated districts were even larger than the well-documented disparities in exposure between people of color and white Americans.“At the same time, there are so many other effects that are creating these disparities, and these delineations by redlining are just one,”\.Researchers have unearthed patterns of all kinds ever since scholars digitized a large collection of redlining maps in 2016.With less green space and more paved surfaces to absorb and radiate heat, historically redlined neighborhoods are 5 degrees hotter in summer, on average, than other areas. A 2019 study of eight California cities found that residents of redlined neighborhoods were twice as likely to visit emergency rooms for asthma.The latest study, which was published on Wednesday in the journal Environmental Science & Technology Letters, looked at neighborhoods in 202 cities and their exposure to two pollutants that are harmful to human health: nitrogen dioxide, a gas associated with vehicle exhaust, industrial facilities and other sources; and the dangerous microscopic particles known as PM 2.5. The study was funded in part by the United States Environmental Protection Agency.

Redlining has created pollution disparities in more than 200 U.S. cities, study finds - The Washington Post - Decades of federal housing discrimination did not only depress home values, lower job opportunities and spur poverty in communities deemed undesirable because of race. It’s why 45 million Americans are breathing dirtier air today, according to a landmark study released Wednesday. The practice known as redlining was outlawed more than a half-century ago, but it continues to impact people who live in neighborhoods that government mortgage officers shunned for 30 years because people of color and immigrants lived in them. The analysis, published in the journal Environmental Science and Technology Letters, found that, compared with White people, Black and Latino Americans live with more smog and fine particulate matter from cars, trucks, buses, coal plants and other nearby industrial sources in areas that were redlined. Those pollutants inflame human airways, reduce lung function, trigger asthma attacks and can damage the heart and cause strokes. “Of course, we’ve known about redlining and its other unequal impacts, but air pollution is one of the most important environmental health issues in the U.S.,” said Joshua Apte, a co-author of the study and an assistant professor in the School of Public Health at the University of California at Berkeley. “If you just look at the number of people that get killed by air pollution, it’s arguably the most important environmental health issue in the country,” Apte said. The federal Home Owners’ Loan Corporation (HOLC) marked areas across the United States as unworthy of loans because of an “infiltration of foreign-born, Negro, or lower grade population,” and shaded them in red starting in the 1930s. This made it harder for home buyers of color to get mortgages; the corporation awarded A grades for solidly White areas and D’s for largely non-White areas that lenders were advised to shun. Redlining was banned 50 years ago. It’s still hurting minorities today. Throughout redlining’s history, local zoning officials worked with businesses to place polluting operations such as industrial plants, major roadways and shipping ports in and around neighborhoods that the federal government marginalized. The researchers analyzed air quality data in 202 cities where communities were redlined and found a consistent disparity in the level of nitrogen dioxide, which forms smog, and PM2.5 pollution, the small particles than can become embedded in people’s lungs and arteries. With nitrogen dioxide, pollution levels were higher in 80 percent of communities given D grades and lower in 84 percent of communities given A grades. That trend held regardless of whether a city was as large as Los Angeles or Chicago, or as small as Macon, Ga., or Albany. Haley Lane, a graduate student in the civil and environmental engineering department at UC-Berkeley and the study’s lead author, said the team embarked on the research to show that a “widespread, federally backed, and well documented” practice like redlining was indelibly linked to air pollution. The research took about two years. “These maps allowed us to analyze conditions in cities across the country, and the consistency we found shows us how many of the pollution problems we have today are tied to patterns that were present in cities more than 80 years ago,” Lane said.

Despite multiple fines, violations, NC Renewable Power is still a chronic and major air polluter | NC Policy Watch - Tens of thousands of dollars in fines. Dozens of violations. Millions of tons of air pollutants. North Carolina Renewable Power in Robeson County was supposed to be part of the solution for Duke Energy to meet its renewable energy goals. Instead, over the past seven years, the facility, which burns virgin wood and poultry waste, has sputtered, shut down, and restarted, only to repeatedly violate its state air permit, according to state records. “This facility is a bad actor,” Katie Moore, a citizen advocate who works on issues of air pollution and environmental justice, told state officials at a public hearing for the facility’s proposed permit changes. “It would retroactively authorize illegal emissions and allow them to continue.” The facility has already emitted more than 49,000 tons of methane, a potent greenhouse gas, state records show. And from 2016 to 2020, NCRP emitted another 5,100 tons of pollutants. The company’s application to modify its permit would increase emissions, including those for greenhouse gases, which could exceed 438,000 tons per year. These increases would qualify NCPR as a major pollution source, also known as a Title V facility. NCRP is located in a predominantly Native American, Black and Latinx community in Lumberton. The census block that includes NCRP has among the state’s top percentile of residents living next to pollution and toxic sources. The facility is adjacent to Active Energy Renewable Power, which is not currently operating, but also has a history of environmental violations, making this polluted corner of Lumberton what environmental advocates call a “sacrifice zone.” According to state records, the facility often didn’t keep proper records and failed to consistently monitor its emissions. “We have no idea what they are truly emitting,” Moore said. “This is all of the things that you could do as a facility to skirt regulations. It’s rare and concerning to see them all happening at a single facility.” An EPA database shows that from July 2020 to June 2021, NCPR incurred “high priority violations” of the Clean Air Act.. These violations involved nitrogen oxides, sulfur dioxide and visible emissions. And the current permit application would not account for daily spikes in air pollution, said the Rev. Mac Legerton, a member of several environmental groups in Robeson County.

Watch Now: Former neighbor to AltEn urges Legislature to investigate what went wrong - Ray Loftus was five years into his 10-year plan to transform an old farmhouse into his family’s dream home south of Mead. Then, in 2015, Loftus told the Legislature’s Executive Board on Thursday, the ethanol plant a half-mile away from the home Loftus bought with his wife, Emily, resumed operations. “That’s when the smell became horrific,” he said during a hearing to create a special legislative committee to investigate the state’s response to AltEn, the plant that processed pesticide-treated seed to produce ethanol. The same year AltEn began producing ethanol, leaving behind solid and liquid byproducts with high concentrations of ag chemicals, Emily gave birth to the couple’s first child. “He was born healthy and everything,” the 51-year-old military veteran told lawmakers. “When we got home, he started having respiratory issues.” The couple later welcomed a daughter in 2019, as complaints made by residents of Mead against the biofuel plant began to pile up at the offices of the Nebraska Department of Environment and Energy. Loftus said he was unaware of the danger posed by living in the shadow of AltEn until early in 2021, however, putting his trust in state and federal environmental regulators to protect residents like himself. Late last summer, after speaking with doctors and public health experts, the Loftus family came to a decision. “They couldn’t say it was safe for our kids to live there without a lot more data,” Loftus said. “Less than 10 days after that, we put an offer in on a house in Papillion, and we moved 19 days later.”

Los Angeles suing Monsanto for chemicals in waterways - Chemical company Monsanto found itself in the horns of yet another lawsuit Monday, as Los Angeles sued the firm for allegedly knowingly polluting waterways in one of the biggest cities in the United States. The suit—filed last week against three companies including Bayer, the German agro giant that now owns Monsanto Company—comes after a raft of legal action over weedkiller Roundup. The latest legal filing claims Monsanto polluted waterways in Los Angeles with polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) up until 1979. PCBs—a toxic chemical that does not break down easily—were used in paint, ink, paper products, fireproofing products, hydraulic fluids and industrial equipment. "It's time for Monsanto to clean up and pay up," said Los Angeles City Attorney Mike Feuer. "The health and environmental impacts of PCBs—impacts the city has been working hard to reduce in waters throughout LA—are just jaw dropping." "We allege Monsanto knew decades ago that PCBs are toxic and inevitably would cause widespread contamination," he charged. "It's infuriating that Monsanto continued to manufacture and sell them—and, we allege, deceive the public about them." The lawsuit says exposure to PCBs can lead to cancer, as well as to damage to the liver, thyroid and eyes. It says the chemical can hamper brain development and impact birth weight. City officials, who are seeking payment from Monsanto to clean up waterways, say the company knew as early as the 1950s that PCBs were harmful to humans, ordering staff not to eat near the chemicals. The lawsuit names three companies that Monsanto spun off in the 1990s: Monsanto Company, now owned by Bayer; Solutia Inc., now owned by Eastman Chemical Company; and Pharmacia LLC., now owned by Pfizer.

'Chemical recycling' of plastic slammed by environmental group - Most plastic "advanced recycling" plants in the United States aren't actually recycling plastic but instead converting it into a dirty fuel, while producing toxic waste in low-income communities, a study by a leading environmental group said Monday. Advanced recycling, also known as chemical recycling, is a relatively new technique touted by industry groups that breaks plastic down to its molecular building blocks. It is said to be able to recapture more than traditional "mechanical" recycling that involves chopping plastic up and processing it into pellets to make new products. But a research report by the Natural Resources Defense Council (NRDC), a non-profit that has helped influence key legislation since it was founded in 1970, accused the plastics industry of misleading the public through "greenwashing." "There has been a lot of energy and enthusiasm around this idea of chemical recycling as a potential part of the solution for the plastics waste crisis," Veena Singla, a senior scientist at the NRDC who authored the brief, told AFP. "We felt it was very important to understand, what are these technologies actually doing?" The NRDC found that of hundreds of announced plants, just eight were either operational or soon-to-be operational, based on official federal and state documents. Five of the eight were engaged in plastic-to-fuel conversion, to create a new low-grade fuel. One was converting carpets to nylon and two were converting plastic to chemical components. The report said that producing fuel from plastic waste does not qualify as recycling under international definitions and that it creates harmful air pollution and greenhouse gasses when burned. One of the plastic-to-chemical plants, run by the company Agilyx, in Oregon, theoretically takes waste polystyrene and converts it into styrene, which can then be used to make new polystyrene. But according to the company's own figures, it is shipping hundreds of thousands of pounds of styrene oil to be burned for energy rather than converted back to plastic. Singla told AFP it was not clear why the company would go through the "wasteful and inefficient" process of converting polystyrene to styrene, only to then burn the styrene, though one potential reason was that the styrene produced was of very low quality. The plant also generated nearly 500,000 pounds of hazardous waste in 2019 alone, sending most of it offsite to be burned, according to official figures.

The Food You Feed Your Pet May Contain Endangered Shark Meat - Ambiguous pet food labels like “fish,” “ocean fish,” or “white bait” may be hiding a secret ingredient:endangered shark meat. A new study published in Frontiers in Marine Science Friday found that 31 percent of samples of pet food tested by the researchers contained shark DNA. “The majority of pet owners are likely lovers of nature, and we think most would be alarmed to discover that they could be unknowingly contributing to the overfishing of shark populations,” study co-authors Dr. Ben Wainwright and Ian French of Yale-NUS College wrote in a press release. Sharks are extremely important for ocean ecosystems. Yet, despite their image as the ultimate marine predator, they are extremely vulnerable to human activities. “Shark populations are overfished throughout the world, with declines of more than 70% in the last 50 years documented. This is indicative of the current lack of regard in which we hold our oceans,” Wainwright and French said in the release. The main threat to sharks is overfishing, and three quarters of oceanic shark species are now at risk from extinction, the study authors wrote. This is partly due to demand for specific shark products like meat, fin or oil. However, shark products can also end up in pet foods and cosmetics without being labeled as such.

Invasive Joro Spiders Expected to Expand Range Along East Coast – - If the murder hornets in 2020 weren’t enough, a new invasive critter, alarming in appearance only, is set to take over the East Coast. Known as the joro spider, orTrichonephila clavata, this arachnid is expected to spread beyond Georgia and up the East Coast. The sight of one is enough to make many squeamish: this brightly colored spider dons hues of yellow, dark blue-black, and red and can grow to be 3 to 4 inches. But they are relatively harmless, researchers at the University of Georgia say. Although the spiders may become a food source for some native birds, they are invasive due to their ability to survive cold climates thanks to a high heart rate and metabolism. Despite the invasive nature of this species, the researchers note that they have no known disruption to local ecosystems or food webs.With that in mind, people along the East Coast will need to learn to live with the spiders.“If they’re literally in your way, I can see taking a web down and moving them to the side, but they’re just going to be back next year,” Andy Davis, corresponding author of the study, said in a press release. Joro spiders arrived in the U.S. in 2013 and have largely remained in the southeastern part of the country. They are native to Japan and likely made it to the U.S. via shipping containers and are relatives to the golden silk spider. The new study explores the differences between the joro spiders and golden silk spiders, which arrived in the southeastern U.S. about 160 years ago. The golden silk spider never moved past the Southeast, though, because it lacks the ability to withstand cold and brief freezing the way joro spiders do.

 Water supply disruptions continue in Iqaluit, a major city in Canada’s far-north and Nunavut’s capital Iqaluit, the capital of Canada’s vast far northern territory of Nunavut, lifted a city-wide boil water advisory March 4 that had been in place since the beginning of the month.In an earlier news release, authorities stated, “The City recommends that all water used for consumption and dental hygiene is brought to a rolling boil for a minimum of one full minute.”Simon Doiron, Iqaluit’s director of public works, called the advisory “precautionary.” It was triggered by maintenance work to bypass a leaking ball valve, which caused the water system to depressurize. Under regulations from the territory’s public health body, a drop of pressure in the water main below 20 psi triggers a boil water advisory and water-quality testing requirements. The leaking ball valve remains a problem and will have to be repaired in the summer once temperatures have risen sufficiently.The boil water advisory is just the latest in a series of problems Iqaluit’s close to 8,000 residents have experienced with their water infrastructure in the last six months. In October 2021, a state of emergency was declared that ultimately lasted two months, when petroleum fuel was discovered in the water supply. Residents had complained about a fuel smell coming from their taps. An old underground fuel tank from 1962 that was buried next to the water treatment plant was thought to be the source of the contamination. The city removed the tank and installed a device to monitor for hydrocarbons. However, the time required for the repairs and the subsequent flushing, testing and engineering confirmation needed to ensure the risk of repeat contamination had been eliminated was prolonged by staff shortages at both the municipal and territorial level.Throughout the state of emergency, the city handed out bottled water at different sites around Iqaluit. Ten days into the emergency, the Canadian Armed Forces was brought in to assist by collecting and purifying water from a nearby river using a reverse osmosis system. Just a month after the state of emergency was lifted, the city was on a boil water advisory again for ten days, while further clean-up measures were taken to eliminate residual traces of fuel from the October incident that had re-entered the water distribution system.The series of disruptions to the water supply, occurring during the fall and winter when temperatures in Iqaluit are well below freezing, caused serious inconvenience and posed a major health hazard to the city’s residents. At the Qikiqtani General Hospital, the city’s only hospital and the territory’s largest, workers were unable to properly wash their hands or sterilize equipment during the state of emergency. This not only made many medical procedures impossible to perform, but also significantly increased the likelihood of the spread of COVID-19. Some patients had to be medevaced out of the territory to other hospitals. Iqaluit Deputy Mayor Janet Pitsiulaaq Brewster revealed that her own mother had been transported to a hospital in Ottawa, two thousand kilometers away, to receive a diagnostic procedure that is normally available in the city. And, as the hospital is the only facility in the city that can give general anesthesia, the waiting list for children needing dental surgery doubled from 500 to 1,000. In 2019, the Health Department in Iqaluit forecast 2,400 medevacs for 2020. At a cost of upwards of $40,000 for each medevac, the financial burden is enormous and currently requires an annual budget of about $100 million.

New study warns half of Amazon rainforest could turn into savanna - More than half of the Amazon rainforest could turn into a savanna in the next few decades, warns a study published Monday in scientific journal Nature Climate Change. The study found that over three-quarters of the Amazon rainforest, which spreads across eight countries in northern South America, has lost resilience since the early 2000s. "Deforestation and climate change, via increasing dry-season length and drought frequency, may already have pushed the Amazon close to a critical threshold of rainforest dieback," the study found. The loss of resilience has been exacerbated in areas of the rainforest that experience less rainfall and are located nearer to human settlements. Researchers involved in the study said that, if the current trajectory of the rainforest continues, the Amazon could reach a “tipping point” where it experiences irreversible dieback. “Many researchers have theorised that a tipping point could be reached, but our study provides vital empirical evidence that we are approaching that threshold,” said research contributor Niklas Boers of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research. Boers, who is a professor at the Technical University of Munich, added that “Deforestation and climate change are likely to be the main drivers of this decline.” The Amazon’s loss of resilience is “risking dieback with profound implications for biodiversity, carbon storage and climate change at a global scale,” the study wrote. “Although finding such a striking loss of resilience is depressing ... the fact that this is an early warning gives us a chance to do something about it before it’s too late,"

75% of Amazon rainforest shows signs of loss, a 'tipping point' of dieback, study shows - The Amazon rainforest may be nearing a "tipping point" of dieback, the point where rainforest will turn to savanna, a new study shows. Signs of loss have been found in more than 75% of the rainforest since the early 2000s, according to research that outlines this troubling trend. "Deforestation and climate change are likely the main drivers of this decline," said study co-author Niklas Boers, a professor at the Technical University of Munich. Using satellite remote sensing data, researchers found what they call "resilience"—the ability to recover from events such as droughts or fires—has declined consistently in the vast majority of the Amazon rainforest. Loss of resilience is most prominent in areas that are closer to human activity, as well as in those that receive less rainfall, the study said. Overall, the Amazon rainforest is becoming much less resilient—raising the risk of widespread dieback, the research shows. "The rainforest can look more or less the same, yet it can be losing resilience—making it slower to recover from a major event like a drought," said study co-author Tim Lenton of the University of Exeter in the United Kingdom. The study was published Monday in the peer-reviewed British journal Nature Climate Change. Experts believe the Amazon could soon reach a critical line, the crossing of which would trigger dieback and turn much of the forest to savanna. That would have major consequences for biodiversity, global carbon storage and climate change. It is not clear when that point could be reached, but the study said the loss of resilience is "consistent" with an approaching watershed moment. "The Amazon rainforest is a highly complex system, so it's very difficult to predict if and when a tipping point could be reached," said study lead author Chris Boulton, also of the University of Exeter. "Many researchers have theorized that a tipping point could be reached, but our study provides vital empirical evidence that we are approaching that threshold," Boers said. "Many interlinked factors—including droughts, fires, deforestation, degradation and climate change—could combine to reduce resilience and trigger the crossing of a tipping point in the Amazon." Tropical forests such as the Amazon play a crucial role in climate regulation, experts say. The Amazon rainforest is biologically the richest region on Earth, hosting about 25% of global biodiversity, and it is a major contributor to the natural cycles required for the functioning of the planet, according to the environmental group Panthera. "The Amazon is the largest tract of continuous rainforest on the planet, and it plays a critical role in the (Earth's) climate system," Laura Schneider, a geographer at Rutgers University, said in 2019, when devastating wildfires were scorching the forest. One crucial role is absorbing carbon dioxide, a heat-trapping gas that's a significant cause of global warming. "With nearly 100 billion tons of carbon stored in its trees, it keeps nearly 400 billion tons of carbon dioxide out of the atmosphere," said Daniel Nepstad, director of the Earth Innovation Institute, an organization that works to promote low-emission rural development.

 Study finds that past global photosynthesis reacted quickly to more carbon in the air - Ice cores allow climate researchers to look 800,000 years back in time. New research indicates that atmospheric carbon acts as fertilizer, increasing biological production. The mechanism removes carbon from the air and thereby slows the acceleration in global warming. Even under ice age conditions, plants, plankton, and other life forms will be able to increase production whenever atmospheric carbon concentrations rise. The mechanism will not prevent an ongoing trend of global warming, but at least will slow the acceleration. This conclusion stems from an international collaboration involving the Physics of Ice Climate Earth (PICE) center of Niels Bohr Institute, University of Copenhagen. In collaboration with Laboratoire des Science du Climat et de l'Environnement, France, the PICE team has studied the ancient air trapped inside tiny air bubbles in an Antarctic ice core. The ice core represents the last 800,000 years of climatic development. The scientists take advantage of the fact that the oxygen atom does not only exist in the most common form 16O with 8 protons and 8 neutrons but also as the isotopes 17O and 18O. The isotopic composition is a tracer for biosphere productivity. Uniquely, the method will show the global level of biological production in contrast to other methods which give more localized results. Combining the air bubble measurements with modeling of oxygen behavior in both the biosphere and the stratosphere, the researchers were able to quantify the biosphere productivity evolution under both glacial periods (ice ages) and interglacial periods. In total, eight glacial cycles were covered. "The results clearly demonstrate that productivity drops during glacial periods and increases during interglacial periods. Further, a strong correlation exists with past atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations measured from multiple ice cores. In addition, the effect is more prominent during glacial periods where the level of carbon dioxide and the global biosphere productivity start to increase several thousand years before the ice caps begin to melt. This correlation is explained by the strong fertilization effect by atmospheric carbon dioxide," says Ji-Woong Yang.

Destructive tornadoes hit Iowa, leaving at least 7 people dead, U.S. – multiple videos - At least 7 people have been killed and several others severely injured after multiple tornadoes hit parts of central and southern Iowa on Saturday afternoon into Sunday, March 5 into 6, 2022. The tornadoes caused widespread damage, with areas of Madison County around Winterset the worst affected. Winterset is located near Des Moines. According to the National Weather Service (NWS), the Winterset tornado could be as strong as EF-3, with wind speeds of at least 218 km/h (136 mph). At least 6 people, including 2 children under the age of 5 were killed and 4 others seriously injured. One had life-threatening injuries and was flown to the hospital. "Initial interrogation of photos and videos from around Winterset suggests at least EF-3 tornado damage occurred late Saturday afternoon," NWS Des Moines said. "Survey teams will be out Sunday to thoroughly investigate the damage and further assess a potential rating." Madison County Emergency Management said this is the worst that anyone has seen in quite a long time. "It will be impactful for many years to come." Up to 30 homes were severely damaged in the county. Iowa Gov. Kim Reynold issued a disaster proclamation for the area Saturday evening to free up state resources in the cleanup efforts. Another person was killed in the town of Chariton, Lucas County, located southeast of Winterset. Two people were injured in nearby Polk County. The county's sheriff's office said that severe weather caused damage to several homes, power lines, and trees. Large and damaging hail was also reported in the region. More than 10 000 homes were left without power. Severe thunderstorms are expected late today through tonight in a corridor from the ArkLaTex region and Ozarks into the Ohio Valley and Tennessee Valley, NWS Storm Prediction Center warns. This includes the risk for a few tornadoes and damaging winds, especially this evening/early overnight across parts of northern Arkansas and southern Missouri. SPC received 33 tornado reports on March 5, all of them from Iowa, and 28 large hail reports.

Australia flood toll rises to 20 as thousands evacuate Sydney - The death toll from week-long floods battering Australia's east coast rose to 20 on Tuesday, after the bodies of a man and a woman were discovered in floodwaters in Sydney. Police said the pair were believed to be a missing mother and son whose car was abandoned in a stormwater canal. Tens of thousands of Sydney residents have been told to evacuate their homes as severe storms and flash flooding inundated swathes of Australia's largest city Tuesday. The national weather bureau warned of "a tough 48 hours ahead" for Sydney, with 60,000 people subject to evacuation orders and warnings, and the city's Manly Dam beginning to spill. Intense rainfall across Sydney flooded bridges and homes, swept away cars and even collapsed the roofs of a shopping centre and a supermarket. In the riverside suburb of Georges Hall vehicles were semi-submerged and police had to rescue people stranded in their cars by rising floodwaters. State emergency services have been stretched thin as the torrential rain and intense storms continued into a second week—with flood warnings in place Tuesday for the entire 2,000-kilometre (1,250-mile) coastline of New South Wales. "It's very much the watery equivalent of the 'Black Summer' bushfires," emergency services spokesperson Phil Campbell told AFP. In the past week the scale of the damage to property and wildlife has been similar to those devastating bushfires, he said, which ravaged Australia's east for months in late 2019 and early 2020. "We have also had a similar effect on communities in terms of dislocation with roads closed, infrastructure damaged, power outages," Campbell said. In the past 24 hours, emergency services have been called to 100 flood rescues across the state, a number that is expected to rise as the full force of the storms bears down on Sydney Tuesday. In the city's north, flood researchers were evacuated from their lab as water from the nearby Manly Dam began to spill over into suburban areas. The University of New South Wales facility uses water from the dam to run large-scale experiments about one-in-100- and one-in-1,000-year flooding scenarios. "Ironically, the conditions were happening just outside," researcher Mitchell Harley told AFP. When he arrived at work in the morning, floodwaters were already rising but soon the downpour caused "significant flooding" in the lab. "We haven't seen impacts of that magnitude in the 60 years of the laboratory," Harley said.

New flooding emergency and widespread damage across Sydney, Manly Dam under an Ambert Alert (video) Sydney, Australia is in the grip of a new flooding emergency with widespread damage reported across the city. The flood crisis in New South Wales has now claimed 8 lives while the total number of casualties in eastern Australia rose to 20.In Manly Vale, cars floated past classroom windows. Across already rain-soaked suburbs, dozens of people have needed rescuing. Two family members have been swept away in Wentworthville.¹"Following very intense rainfall overnight, heavy rainfall and gusty winds are expected to continue across New South Wales, including the central and southern coasts, the ranges and hinterland," the Australian Bureau of Meteorology said.²The east coast low near the Hunter Coast is likely to track south today and bring potential flooding impacts.Tonight and early Wednesday, March 9, very windy conditions are expected near the coast including Sydney and the Illawarra. Damaging southerly swell and coastal erosion are also expected on Tuesday or early Wednesday for the southern half of New South Wales.Due to recent rainfall, the soil is saturated and rivers are swollen so severe thunderstorms and persistent showers are more likely to lead to landslides, flash, and riverine flooding. Gusty winds are also more likely to lead to trees and powerlines falling, due to soft soils.The Bureau of Meteorology has numerous flood warnings current across eastern New South Wales with severe weather warnings and hazardous surf warnings also current.Thunderstorms are expected over the northeast until the middle of the week, with severe thunderstorms possible on Wednesday, while rain is expected to ease later on Tuesday and Wednesday along the remainder of the coast as the east coast low moves offshore. Flooding will continue as the water slowly recedes.

Very dangerous Tropical Cyclone "Gombe" to make landfall over Mozambique - Tropical Cyclone "Gombe" made its first landfall in northern Madagascar on March 7, 2022, bringing heavy rains, and exited into the warm and moist environment of Mozambique Channel on March 8. On March 9, Gombe consolidated and later in the day intensified into a Severe Tropical Storm and then into a Tropical Cyclone on March 10. The next landfall is expected in the province of Nampula, Mozambique late Thursday night, March 10, possibly as a very dangerous Intense Tropical Cyclone. At 12:00 UTC on March 10, the center of Tropical Cyclone "Gombe" was located about 150 km (95 miles) E of Tofo Beach, Mozambique. The cyclone had maximum 10-minute average winds of 130 km/h (80 mph), central pressure of 975 hPa, and was moving WSW at 13 km/h (8 mph), according to RMSC La Reunion.1 Gombe's track is mainly driven by the mid-tropospheric ridge south of the Mozambique Channel, giving a general westward movement, hence a planned landing on the east coast of Mozambique late next night between Angoche and Nacala, the center said. During the weekend, following the departure of the subtropical ridge, the incursion of a small cut-off to the south of the Mozambique Channel and the strengthening of the near-equatorial ridge to the northeast, then to the east, Gombe should slow its course on Saturday and then bend its track southeastwards from Sunday, leading to its emergence in the Mozambique Channel on Monday. The complex and conflicting steering flows bring a significant uncertainty on the timing of Gombe's turn overland. The RSMC track is based on a median scenario, adjusted southward, between the main available models. In terms of intensity, Gombe benefits from environmental conditions favorable for the continuation of a steady or rapid intensification up to the landing: important oceanic heat content (surface temperatures around 29 - 30 °C), very good upper divergence on the western side, and a weakening shear. The present forecast assumes an intensification up to the intense tropical cyclone stage at landfall. However, the inner core's small size makes the forecast of the extent of intensification still uncertain. A classical weakening is expected once the system is over land.

 Wildfires rage along South Korea’s east coast - Wildfires along South Korea’s east coast and other parts of the country have caused massive destruction in recent days as firefighters struggle to bring the blazes under control. As of Tuesday morning, the main fire located in Uljin County and neighbouring areas had burned approximately 21,765 hectares of land, making them the most destructive wildfires in 22 years. Thousands have been forced to evacuate. The fire in Uljin, located in North Gyeongsang Province 330 kilometres southeast of Seoul, began the morning of March 4 and quickly spread north to the neighbouring city of Samcheok in Gangwon Province. Approximately 18,000 firefighters, 95 helicopters, and 781 vehicles on the ground have been deployed to fight the blaze. Only about 50 percent of the fire has been extinguished, with little progress made from Monday. The fires have been fuelled by strong winds and dry conditions. Dry weather warnings are in place for the east coast while much of the remaining parts of the country are under dry weather advisories. Other fires on the east coast have been reported in recent days in Gangneung City, which spread south to Donghae City, both of which are just north of the Uljin blaze. About 90 percent of this fire has been extinguished. Wildfires also continue to burn in Yeongwol County, Gangwon Province and Dalseong County in Daegu, with 60 and 40 percent of each being extinguished respectively. According to the Ministry of Interior and Safety, there have been 245 wildfires during the period from January 1 to March 5, an increase of 110 over the average for the same period for the last three years. The Korea Forest Service and police do not yet know what caused the Uljin fire, but the authorities suggest it started from a cigarette butt thrown from a car. Based on surveillance footage, they are currently looking for the owners of three vehicles that passed through the area where the fire originated. A court has, however, issued an arrest warrant for a 60-year-old suspect accused of starting the Gangneung fire. The man supposedly told police he started the fire after being “disrespected” by other residents for many years. The Central Disaster and Safety Countermeasure Headquarters reported that at least 7,355 people have been evacuated. Approximately 1,000 of the evacuees have been forced to stay in cramped, temporary shelters in public facilities and schools. At least 512 buildings have been damaged, including 343 homes. No direct casualties have been reported yet, though an 86-year-old woman reportedly died while evacuating from Gangneung. No cause of death has been released. In addition, a 51-year-old firefighter was discovered dead on March 6. His family explained that he had been overworked and on the job for five days straight before passing away. They also stated that he had worked more than 50 hours per week for the past three months.

 Changes in air pollution linked with dry spells in Asia and summer heatwaves in Europe - Air pollution increases in South East Asia, combined with pollution cuts in Europe, may have had an important influence on European and Asian weather patterns in recent decades, new research has found. Analysis of weather records and climate models by scientists at the University of Reading revealed that changes in air pollution levels in the two regions was likely the primary driving force behind changing atmospheric conditions that favored prolonged summer extremes in Europe, as well as causing dry spells in Central Asia. New research published in Nature Communications shows that the air pollution changes during 1979-2019 reduced the temperature gradient between the two regions, significantly weakening the jet stream over Asia. These high-altitude winds have a strong influence on atmospheric circulation in the Northern Hemisphere, and shape weather across Europe and other mid-latitude areas. "Our findings suggest changes to air pollution had a greater influence on Northern Hemisphere summer weather than we thought. "The research counters previous suggestions that the weakening of the summer jet stream was the result of rapid warming in the Arctic due to greenhouse gas emissions. It highlights another significant role human activity plays in driving extreme weather over vast regions." Air pollution is known to have a direct impact on surface temperatures, since the pollution particles prevents heat from the sun penetrating to the ground. Increases in pollution in China and other areas of South and East Asia during the past 40 years therefore resulted in lower surface temperatures, while cuts in Europe led to clearer skies and hotter temperatures. Temperature changes in different latitudes reduced vertical wind shear and therefore weakened the summertime Eurasian subtropical westerly jet—the ribbon of wind which extends east over Central Asia and northern China from the North Atlantic Jet Stream—by 7% over the period. The researchers looked at the effect of greenhouse gasses and pollution particles separately, and found that the former actually causes a strengthening of the jet stream, but was overpowered by the impacts of air pollution. Dr. Dong says that "as South East Asian countries fulfill commitments to cut their air pollution levels over the coming decades, we would expect to see the jet stream strengthen over Eurasia once again, potentially reducing the likelihood of prolonged heatwaves but increasing the likelihood of strong cyclones in mid-latitudes."

Increasing frequency of El Niño events expected by 2040 - Global weather fluctuations called El Niño events are likely to become more frequent by 2040, a new study shows. El Niño—the unusual warming of surface waters in the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean—affects climate, ecosystems and societies worldwide. The study examined four possible scenarios for future carbon emissions, and found increased risk of El Niño events in all four. This means El Niño events and associated climate extremes are now more likely "regardless of any significant mitigation actions" to reduce emissions, the researchers warn. Lead author Dr. Jun Ying, from the Second Institute of Oceanography, Ministry of Natural Resources in China and the University of Exeter, says that "we know from previous studies that, when measuring El Niño changes in terms of rainfall shifts in the eastern equatorial Pacific, models predict an increase in the frequency of events." "This study shows that those changes could happen after the next two decades." The study, published in Nature Climate Change, examines the "time of emergence" of changes in the tropical Pacific using state-of-the-art climate models. The time of emergence is defined as when the signal of climate change emerges from the usual background noise of natural climate variability. When looking at changes in El Niño rainfall patterns, the best estimate of the time of emergence of changes converges on 2040 in all of the four emissions scenarios considered. Co-author Professor Mat Collins, from the University of Exeter and part of the Global Systems Institute, added that "what surprised us is that changes emerge regardless of the scenario we look at." "Because rainfall in the tropics is associated with the warmest sea surface temperatures (SSTs), it is the relative changes in SST that are more important than the absolute change. "This leads us to the rather stark conclusion that these changes are essentially unavoidable."

 Another Trying Season, La Nina Now Through Summer - The good folks over at the National Weather Service have posted that La Nina, the ENSO negative Pacific Ocean pattern is here to stay for a threepeat. What this typically means for us in the US is that we are looking at drought. More drought. From the Texas South to the Dakota’s. This also means more rainfall in northern spots, flooding in the Ohio River Valley, much like we saw in Tennessee last year, and an uptick in hurricane activity coming off the gulf. El Nino is the opposite positive effect that pushes atmospheric waves over the Rockies to descind down into the plains to convect the warm, moist Gulf onshore flows. We see this in Texas as regular fronts with squalls of good soaking rains. In the Corn Belt, El Nino reduces the chances for tornadic breakouts per research by Allen, Tippet, and Sobel. La Nina setting up much as it has the past two cycles unfortunately increases the already drought stricken West and Southern US. A third year of La Nina isn’t unprecedented, this has happened in 1973-76, and most recently in 1998-2001. What is different is that the current irrigated versus rainfed croppage spread is widening as more land needs to be irrigated to produce more bushels of beans and corn. This metric also shows how we have been able to use Bt (blight tolerant), Dt (drought tolerant), and other genetically modified strains of silage to achieve more with less in the overall production. To note, we are actually in a holding pattern from irrigation draws and down from peak freshwater usage. In looking at the initial data this year, and collectively sewing prior years experience, I expect this year to be a repeat of last year, where yields are up, mostly because commodities prices are at all time highs. Take for example the futures market on May ’22 corn: Because corn and soybeans make up a significant share of the oils markets, ethanol, and are primaries in livestock silage feed, the expectation is that food inflation is likely to get worse. As I sit now, it is hard to exactly forecast without knowing the planted report from the USDA, as the seed drilling has only begun in the south and as the frost line moves north, more farmers wait to get seed in the ground likely next month. There is a call for more producers to plant more acres, but last year we were at an almost all time high. .

 New observations from ICESat-2 show remarkable Arctic sea ice thinning in just three years - Over the past two decades, the Arctic has lost about one-third of its winter sea ice volume, largely due to a decline in sea ice that persists over several years, called multiyear ice, according to a new study. The study also found sea ice is likely thinner than previous estimates. Seasonal sea ice, which melts completely each summer rather than accumulating over years, is replacing thicker, multiyear ice and driving sea ice thinning trends, according to the new research. Arctic sea ice snow depth is estimated, for the first time, from a combination of lidar (ICESat-2) and radar (CryoSat-2) data. Using these estimates of snow depth and the height of sea ice exposed above water, the study found multiyear Arctic sea ice has lost 16% of its winter volume, or approximately half a meter (about 1.5 feet) of thickness, in the three years since the launch of ICESat-2. The study was published in the AGU journal Geophysical Research Letters, which publishes short-format, high-impact papers with implications that span the Earth and space sciences. The researchers found using climatology-based estimates of snow depth can result in overestimating sea-ice thickness by up to 20%, or up to 0.2 meters (0.7 feet). "The key takeaway for me is the remarkable loss of Arctic winter sea ice volume—one-third of the winter ice volume lost over just 18 years—that accompanied a widely reported loss of old, thick Arctic sea ice and decline in end-of-summer ice extent." "This is the first time anyone has several years' worth of data from the difference between lidar and radar data for snow depth," said Robbie Mallett, a polar ice researcher at University College London who was not involved in the study. "It's a really useful update on how ICESat-2 is performing." The study used an 18-year record of sea-ice observations from ICESat and the newer ICESat-2 and CryoSat-2 satellites to capture monthly changes in Arctic sea-ice thickness and volume, to provide context for sea ice thickness estimates from 2018 to 2021. The 18-year record showed a loss of about 6,000 cubic kilometers of winter ice volume, largely driven by the switch from predominantly multiyear ice to thinner, seasonal sea ice. Older, multiyear ice tends to be thicker and therefore more resistant to melting. As that "reservoir" of old Arctic sea ice is depleted and seasonal ice becomes the norm, the overall thickness and volume of Arctic sea ice is expected to decline. "Current models predict that by the mid-century we can expect ice-free summers in the Arctic, when the older ice, thick enough to survive the melt season is gone," Kacimi said. "This is really old ice we're losing at quite a frightening rate," Mallett said.

 G2 - Moderate geomagnetic storm predicted following long-duration C2 solar flare -- A long-duration C2 solar flare erupted from an area west of AR 2962 on March 10/11, 2022, producing full halo coronal mass ejection (CME). As a result, a G2 - Moderate geomagnetic storm watch is in effect. The event started around 18:00 UTC on March 10 and ended after 05:00 UTC on March 11 - more than 11 hours. The CME was first observed in LASCO C2 imagery at around 19:30 UTC on March 10.¹ The arrival of this CME is expected on the 33^rd anniversary of the infamously named "Quebec Blackout" geomagnetic storm in March 1989, which resulted in power outages in Canada as well as auroral activity in lower than usual latitudes.² Geomagnetic Storm Category G2 Predicted/ Highest Storm Level Predicted by Day: Mar 12: None (Below G1) Mar 13: None (Below G1) Mar 14: G2 (Moderate). Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 55 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.Induced Currents - Power grid fluctuations can occur. High-latitude power systems may experience voltage alarms. Spacecraft - Satellite orientation irregularities may occur; increased drag on low Earth-orbit satellites is possible.Radio - HF (high frequency) radio propagation can fade at higher latitudes. Aurora - Aurora may be seen as low as New York to Wisconsin to Washington state.

Guatemala Volcano of Fire eruption prompts evacuations - About 500 residents evacuated voluntarily from the slopes of Guatemala's Volcano of Fire Tuesday as red-hot rock and ash flowed down the slopes toward an area devastated by a deadly 2018 eruption.The National Institute of Seismology, Vulcanology, Meteorology and Hydrology said in a statement that around 3 a.m. Tuesday the volcano's activity began to diminish."The seismic and acoustic sensors confirm that the activity that persists in the crater are weak explosions and booms that still generate some avalanches principally toward the Ash and Dry ravines," the institute said.Guatemala's disaster agency said shelters had been opened for the evacuees in the nearby town of Escuintla.At one of those, a gym converted to a shelter in the community of Santa Lucia Cotzumalguapa, residents of surrounding communities rested on cots waiting to hear it was safe to return to their homes.The 12,300-foot (3,763-meter) high Volcano of Fire is one of the most active in Central America and an eruption in 2018 killed 194 people and left another 234 missing.The biggest danger from the volcano are lahars, a mixture of ash, rock, mud and debris, that can bury entire towns.

 High-level eruption at Manam volcano, ash to 15 km (50 000 feet) a.s.l., P.N.G. (videos) Several eruptions took place at Manam volcano, Papua New Guinea on March 8 and 9, 2022. The largest sent volcanic ash up to 15.2 km (50 000 feet) above sea level, drifting W and toward the main island.The Aviation Color Code was raised to Red following the first eruption at 09:50 UTC on March 8 and it remains at this level today.The Alert Level is at 3 of 5 / minor activity or eruption warning. High-level eruption at Manam volcano, P.N.G. on March 8, 2022. Image credit: JMA/Himawari-8, RAMMB/CIRA, TW. Acquired at 10:10 UTCThe Darwin VAAC reported that a large thermal anomaly over Manam was identified in satellite images acquired on December 21 and 22, 2021. A discrete ash plume rose to 3.4 km (11 000 feet) a.s.l. and drifted SE on December 21.¹Ash plumes may have risen to 10.7 km (35 000 feet) a.s.l. on December 22, though weather clouds and heavy rain obscured satellite views. The plumes were unconfirmed by ground observers. At 12:00 LT on December 22 an ash plume rose to 4.9 km (16 000 feet) a.s.l., drifted E, and dissipated within four hours.The last high-level eruption at the volcano took place at around 22:40 UTC on October 19, 2021, ejecting ash up to 15.2 km (50 000 feet) above sea level.² A series of high-level eruptions³ were reported at the volcano beginning on December 8, 2018, and lasting through January 24, 2019:

Tonga volcano to have smaller cooling impact on climate change than first thought - A fresh analysis of the possible cooling effect of the sulfur dioxide injected into the atmosphere by the Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha'apai volcano in January 2022 has concluded that the impact will be much smaller than initially thought—but the researchers responsible add some major caveats to this conclusion. The analysis appears in the journal Advances in Atmospheric Sciences on Mar. 1. An undersea volcano at Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha'apai (HTHH) erupted violently on 15th January 2022, which raised wide public concern about its impact on global climate. Sulfur dioxide (SO2) injected into the stratosphere after volcanic eruptions is oxidized and converted to sulfate aerosols. These aerosols linger there for one or two years and while there, work to reduce incoming solar radiation, resulting in a short period of global cooling. The surface temperature returns to normal as the volcanic aerosols dissipate, and so a single volcanic eruption is not enough to alter the long-term global warming trend, unless there are clusters of volcanic eruption that can persist through centuries as is suggested have happened during the Little Ice Age in the past millennium. The largest volcanic eruption of the last 500 years, the eruption of Mount Tambora in Indonesia in April 1815 caused the so-called "year without a summer" in the following year in many parts of the world. There is a reduction in annual mean surface temperature over the tropics and northern hemisphere by 0.4–0.8 degrees Celsius. But the Tambora eruption emitted 53–58 terrograms (Tg) of SO2. Satellite measurements of the eruption at HTHH—which has erupted multiple times over the past century—showed that its volcanic ash has reached an altitude of 30 kilometers deep into the stratosphere, with a total mass of only about 0.4 Tg. One previously reported initial estimate placed the reduction in global surface air temperature at between 0.03 and 0.1 degrees Celsius over the next one to two years as a result of the HTHH eruption. "This reported initial estimate may have overestimated the impact as it did not take into account the location where the eruption occurred, which alters the spatial distribution of stratospheric sulfate aerosols—a variable that can alter results substantially," Fortunately, climate-model simulations that use large southern volcanic eruptions in the last millennium overall provided a useful reference. They then picked six particularly large tropical eruptions in model simulations and scaled the surface temperature response in line with the intensity of the 1991 Mount Pinatubo eruption where 20 Tg of SO2 were ejected. The results of the model simulations were found to be similar to real-world observations, suggesting their modeling work was on the right track. These results were then scaled down for the HTHH eruption with its stratospheric injection of 0.4 Tg of SO2. The final results showed that that the global mean surface temperature will decrease by only 0.004 degrees Celsius in the first year after the HTHH eruption. This is within the scope of internal variability of the climate system. This means that the eruption of HTHH will not be strong enough to overwhelm the longer term global warming tendency.

Global carbon dioxide emissions rebounded to their highest level in history in 2021 - Global energy-related carbon dioxide emissions rose by 6% in 2021 to 36.3 billion tons, their highest ever level, as the world economy rebounded strongly from the COVID-19 crisis and relied heavily on coal to power that growth, according to new IEA analysis released today. The increase in global CO2 emissions of over 2 billion tons was the largest in history in absolute terms, more than offsetting the previous year's pandemic-induced decline, the IEA analysis shows. The recovery of energy demand in 2021 was compounded by adverse weather and energy market conditions—notably the spikes in natural gas prices—which led to more coal being burned despite renewable power generation registering its largest ever growth. The global CO2 emissions and energy demand numbers are based on the IEA's detailed region-by-region and fuel-by-fuel analysis, drawing on the latest official national data and publicly available energy, economic and weather data. Combined with the methane emissions estimates that the IEA published last month and estimates of nitrous oxide and flaring-related CO2 emissions, the new analysis shows that overall greenhouse gas emissions from energy rose to their highest ever level in 2021. The numbers make clear that the global economic recovery from the COVID-19 crisis has not been the sustainable recovery that IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol called for during the early stages of the pandemic in 2020. The world must now ensure that the global rebound in emissions in 2021 was a one-off—and that an accelerated energy transition contributes to global energy security and lower energy prices for consumers. Coal accounted for over 40% of the overall growth in global CO2 emissions in 2021, reaching an all-time high of 15.3 billion tons. CO2 emissions from natural gas rebounded well above their 2019 levels to 7.5 billion tons. At 10.7 billion tons, CO2 emissions from oil remained significantly below pre-pandemic levels because of the limited recovery in global transport activity in 2021, mainly in the aviation sector. Despite the rebound in coal use, renewable energy sources and nuclear power provided a higher share of global electricity generation than coal in 2021. Renewables-based generation reached an all-time high, exceeding 8 000 terawatt-hours (TWh) in 2021, a record 500 TWh above its 2020 level. Output from wind and solar PV increased by 270 TWh and 170 TWh, respectively, while hydro generation declined due to the impacts of drought, notably in the United States and Brazil. The use of coal for electricity generation in 2021 was intensified by record high natural gas prices. The costs of operating existing coal power plants across the United States and many European power systems were considerably lower than those of gas power plants for the majority of 2021. Gas-to-coal switching pushed up global CO2 emissions from electricity generation by well over 100 million tons, notably in the United States and Europe where competition between gas and coal power plants is tightest. The rebound of global CO2 emissions above pre-pandemic levels has largely been driven by China, where they increased by 750 million tons between 2019 and 2021. China was the only major economy to experience economic growth in both 2020 and 2021. The emissions increases in those two years in China more than offset the aggregate decline in the rest of the world over the same period. In 2021 alone, China's CO2 emissions rose above 11.9 billion tons, accounting for 33% of the global total.

Time is running out to counteract global climate change - In order to better understand the burden of human activity and its dynamics on the planet, specifically as it relates to the effects of the continued increase in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and global warming, researchers from IIASA and the Lviv Polytechnic National University, Ukraine, approached the problem from a "stress–strain" perspective. . In this regard, the authors note that approximately 60% of Earth's memory had already been exploited prior to 1959. . The researchers viewed the emission of manmade GHGs into the atmosphere, notably carbon dioxide (CO2), as a stressor on the Earth-system and surveyed the condition of Earth in terms of stress–strain units. The researchers began with the stress caused by the CO2 emissions from fossil fuel burning and land use between 1959 and 2015, confirming that, from the standpoint of a global observer, the CO2 concentration in the atmosphere has increased rather quickly over this period. At the same time, the atmosphere has been reported to have warmed and expanded by approximately 15 to 20 meters in the troposphere per decade since 1990, while part of the carbon has been locked away (rather slowly) in land and the oceans. Together, the expansion of the atmosphere and the uptake of carbon in so-called carbon sinks, are referred to as the overall strain response of the atmosphere–land and ocean carbon system. They found that since 1850, the atmosphere, land, and ocean system has been trapped progressively in terms of persistence (i.e., it will become progressively more difficult to relax the system), while its ability to build up memory has been reduced. Concomitantly with the exploitation of memory, the study found that the limiting value that persistence aims at, increased by approximately a factor of two to three since 1850 and can be expected to increase further if the release of CO2 emissions continues globally as before. "The atmosphere, land, and ocean carbon system is much more fragile than is widely believed. Based on the stress–strain insights from our study, we expect that the atmosphere, land, and ocean carbon system could be forced outside its natural regime well before 2050 if the current trend in emissions is not reversed immediately and sustainably. These insights are independent from any external target values such as temperature targets justified by means of global change research, and suggest that the time window for counter measures, including mitigation and adaptation, is much shorter than we think," says study lead author Matthias Jonas, a senior researcher in the IIASA Exploratory Modeling of Human-Natural Systems Research Group. The authors note that although the focus of their study is on the atmosphere, land, and ocean carbon system, the stress–strain approach they followed should not be considered an appendix to a mass-balance-based carbon cycle model. Instead, it should be seen as a self-standing model belonging to the suite of reduced but still insightful models that offer great benefits in safeguarding complex three-dimensional climate and global change models, among which a stress–strain model is currently not available. The study has just been published in the journal Earth System Dynamics.

How badly will Russia's war torpedo hopes for global climate cooperation? - Even before Russia invaded Ukraine, the prospect of industrial nations coming together to quickly enact meaningful cuts to greenhouse gas emissions seemed slim. But with Russia blowing apart the world order, advocates for international climate action say their cause is looking ever more bleak, just as the effects of warming are looking more ominous. In its latest global climate report, written before the invasion and released last week, the United Nations warned that the world sits on the brink of disaster—with rising waters sure to subsume coastal cities and wildfires increasing in intensity, size and frequency, among other perils. Yet the report also offered a glimmer of hope—noting that nations could still pull together to reduce emissions, preserve forests and collaborate on mitigation efforts. Now, consensus and widespread collaboration seem even more unlikely, at least in the near term. Scientists are already reporting reductions in shared research and communications with Russian counterparts. Policymakers and scientists say Russia's aggression will surely delay international efforts to find consensus and focus on climate-related issues. "The war will distract us from climate action around the world," said Rob Jackson, Earth system scientist at Stanford University and an expert in global greenhouse emissions. Although Russia has been a foot-dragger in phasing out fossil fuels, he said, it is one of several major nations crucial to any international pact to slash emissions. With its enormous energy fields, Russia is the world's fourth-largest source of greenhouse gases, the third-largest supplier of coal and the largest emitter of methane—a gas that dissipates faster in the atmosphere than carbon dioxide but is 25 times as potent in trapping heat. When Scotland hosted the COP25 climate summit late last year, Russian President Vladimir Putin declined to attend. At that summit, the Biden administration and the European Union launched the Global Methane Pledge, aimed at cutting emissions by 30% by 2030. More than 110 nations have since signed the pledge, but Russia has declined, as have China, India and Australia, among others. Even before the conflict, Russia was trying to sell more gas and coal to China, its ally in standing up to U.S. influence in Europe and Asia. To help Russia weather western sanctions, China may be more eager now to purchase Russian gas and coal, some analysts warn. The war could also spur some climate benefits. Many European nations are dependent on Russian natural gas, and they may now move quicker to invest in clean energy and transition to electric-power vehicles.

National TV news' coverage of the latest IPCC report missed a key opportunity to connect climate inaction to the war in Ukraine | Media Matters for America --The United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) latest report released on February 28 included the sobering finding: “The rise in weather and climate extremes has led to some irreversible impacts as natural and human systems are pushed beyond their ability to adapt.” The new report, which focused on climate impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability, received a modicum of coverage in digital and print outlets – but broadcast and cable news coverage of the report dropped dramatically compared to coverage of the previous IPCC report released last August, and it was largely overshadowed by news of Russia’s attack on Ukraine.Broadcast morning and nightly news shows on ABC, CBS, NBC, and PBS and original programming on CNN covered the new IPCC report for a total of 15 minutes on the day it was released. Since then, only one program on MSNBC has reported on the latest warning from scientists. Fox has yet to cover it. With so much media attention focused on the ongoing Russian invasion of Ukraine, it is tempting to pit climate coverage against a major international news story with far-reaching geopolitical ramifications. However, TV news coverage of the IPCC report did not have to be an instance of prioritizing reporting on one story over the other. The crisis on the European continent and the dire findings of the IPCC climate report are in no small part driven by the world’s continued reliance on fossil fuels, and national TV news missed a key opportunity both to discuss the report on its own merits and to provide further context on the climate and energy aspects of the crisis in Ukraine. Meanwhile, Fox News has filled the vacuum by flooding its airwaves with disingenuous lies that undermine the need for climate action. From February 28 to March 2, 2022, broadcast morning and nightly news shows on ABC, CBS, NBC, and PBS and original programming on CNN and MSNBC devoted just 17 minutes combined to coverage of the new IPCC report. Fox News has not covered the recent climate report at all as of this writing. Broadcast TV news coverage from ABC, CBS, NBC, and PBS aired a combined six segments across nine minutes on the IPCC report. The corporate networks covered the story for approximately 90 seconds each, while PBS NewsHour aired four minutes of coverage about the report’s findings. All of these segments aired the day the report was released. Original programming on cable news channels CNN and MSNBC aired a combined three segments across nearly eight minutes of coverage about the IPCC report. CNN aired two segments across nearly six minutes, while MSNBC aired one segment that ran for little more than 90 seconds. Both of CNN’s segments aired the day the report was released, while MSNBC covered the report on March 1. These totals represent a dramatic decline compared to coverage of the previous IPCC report released last August, when morning and nightly news shows on ABC, CBS, NBC, and PBS aired a combined six segments across 22 minutes, and CNN and MSNBC aired a combined 26 segments across nearly 100 minutes of coverage – for a total of more than two hours of coverage across broadcast and cable TV news.

 Bla Bla Bla by Roger Gathmann - Perhaps the only really moving speech in the twenty first century was given by Greta Thunberg, who characterized the official rhetoric around climate change – way around, whilst making as much money and as little change as possible – as bla bla bla. “Build better bla bla bla. Green economy bla bla bla.” And, as she acutely said, we are drowning in the bla. Not only is Thunberg correct about every speech by every politician in the past twenty to thirty years – in America from Mr.Bring it on to Mr. Hope to Ms. Break the glass ceiling (symbolically of course) to American first and Mr. Build Back Better, and every one elsewhere, because frankly, the political class is the blab la bla class, leading us to the zombie apocalypse – but she was also obviously referencing Friedrich Kittler’s famous essay on Lacan, Dracula’s Legacy. Well, who knows? But Kittler’s essay, which I decided to exercise my brain on – instead of crunching the news of the war in Ukraine, which is like eating shit every morning – does enter, crucially, into the nexus between the recording of the voice and what is brought by the voice – the signifier. Brought into our all too organic ear. "If even Freud’s fundamental rule prescribes speaking at random [ins Blaue], if, further, the most directr way to the pleasure principle, without all those chin-ups “into higher spheres, as laid down by aristotelian ethics” leads to such bla bla , then nothing else will do. In order to tape blabla, magnetic tape, tv cameras and radio microsphones were invented.” This is a harsh judgment, since we have long fancied that we are a society of facts, when all is said and done, a society that could not have invented magnetic tape or any of the rest of it if we had not a firmer foundation than bla bla. Or, as the first generation of Anglo analytic philosophers used to say, before digging into their disgusting English cuisine at the table in Oxford, nonsense. Nonsense, the magic wand. Well, Greta and Kittler, I think, see through the nonsense crap. It is the sense, the infinite sensemaking and infinite denial, that is blabla. The most nonsensical of all events – the creating of an earth that will be hostile to the very lives of all the sensemakers – which is fully underway. In our imagination, the rich – who have been credited, with more blabla than even was accorded the apotheosis of Roman emperors, with being “creators”, when their only creation was administration and investment built on other people’s labor – get away. They build spaceships and get away. Or they will all go to Peter Thiel’s Treasure Island and eat lobster..

This Ironic World: Does Climate Hope Encourage Climate Inaction? - Thomas Neuburger --I recently did a piece, “Everything New Is Old Again,” about the strange world of climate news we currently inhabit, a world “tucked between the start of a world-historical collapse and stories about it so old they sound not special at all.”This is another tale of disconnect. A number of recent climate articles have reinforced the dissonance between predictions of coming catastrophe on the one hand (though perhaps, in readers’ minds, too far off to be taken seriously), and stories that offer hope and renewal, in particular energy renewal and transformation.Recently the IPCC released the latest findings of its Working Group 2, the scientists who evaluate our potential for climate adaptation and resilience. Working Group 3, whose report is due shortly, looks at the potential for mitigation of the crisis. (“Mitigation” means making the crisis less serious. “Adaptation” means dealing with how serious already is.) From the FAQ section, part of the answer to FAQ 1 says this (emphasis mine throughout): Climate change is affecting nature, people’s lives and infrastructure everywhere. Its dangerous and pervasive impacts are increasingly evident in every region of our world. These impacts are hindering efforts to meet basic human needs and they threaten sustainable development across the globe. The continued explanation includes phrases like “extreme events are increasingly impacting nature and people’s lives everywhere” … “magnitude of climate change impacts are larger than estimated in previous assessments” … “severe and widespread disruption in nature and in society”. In short, “the impacts of climate change are affecting billions of people in many different ways.” And worse is coming: Climate change impacts are expected to intensify with additional warming. It is also an established fact that they are interacting with multiple other societal and environmental challenges. These include a growing world population, unsustainableconsumption, a rapidly increasing number of people living in cities, significantinequality, continuing poverty, land degradation, biodiversity loss due to land-use change, ocean pollution, overfishing and habitat destruction as well as a global pandemic. Where trends intersect they can reinforce each other, intensifying risks and impacts, which affect the poor and most vulnerable people the hardest. Contrary to most people’s (understandable) beliefs, the climate crisis in its early stages is here now. (That belief — in a falsehood — is understandable since the world of the wealthy and its media is doing everything possible to delay most people’s full appreciation of the crisis they’re facing now.) Other commenters are much more dire than the stoic (and government-financed) IPCC.Yet as we watch, no one is acting on any of this, no one with any real power, which makes the nearly unstoppable even worse.

Carbon Capture Takes Center Stage, But Is Its Promise an Illusion? - With his climate agenda stalled in Congress, President Joe Biden has managed to win billions in federal spending for one pillar of his platform that is gaining increased attention globally: carbon capture. In a major win for oil, coal, utilities and other industries, the federal government is poised to make its largest investment ever—more than $12 billion from last year’s infrastructure bill—in technologies that capture carbon dioxide from smokestack emissions or straight from the air.ExxonMobil, Southern Company and other oil fossil fuel giants have promoted carbon capture and storage as a tool for cutting emissions for more than a decade, with little to show for it. Still, carbon capture is gaining traction with politicians in both parties, policy experts, scientists and even some environmentalists who say that the threat of climate change is so dire that it requires every possible solution.Supporters including Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse, a Rhode Island Democrat and one of the Senate’s most outspoken champions of climate action, point to modeling by academics and others that show the technologies could play a critical role in curbing emissions, particularly from hard-to-tackle sectors like heavy industry and shipping.Their arguments have won unprecedented spending on carbon capture over the past year, with governments in Europe, Canada and Australia also committing billions in subsidies. Proponents say all this funding could prove transformative and, within a decade, could help cut hundreds of millions of metric tons of pollution annually.But many progressive climate groups like Greenpeace and 350.org say oil companies are promoting the technologies as a distraction to avoid phasing out their products. At best, they argue, carbon capture and removal will play a marginal role in limiting emissions. At worst, they warn, subsidies for the technologies will prolong demand for fossil fuels, squandering money that would be better spent on replacing coal, oil and gas altogether. While the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change said in 2018 that carbon capture and removal technologies may be critical to limiting warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit), it also said that carbon removal in particular remains unproven and that relying on it posed “a major risk” to meeting climate targets. Carbon capture prevents emissions, by pulling them out of smokestacks, while carbon removal refers to processes that suck the gas from the atmosphere. In 2020, U.S. greenhouse gas emissions totalled nearly 6 billion metric tons of carbon dioxide equivalent, including other pollutants like methane. Even optimistic projections say that carbon capture and removal technologies will be able to cut only about 250 million metric tons annually by 2035, or about 4 percent of 2020 emissions.

U.S. Midwest carbon pipeline has secured less than 2% of key Iowa route, filings show (Reuters) - Landowners in Iowa have been slow to cede their property rights to a 2,000-mile (3,219 km) proposed carbon dioxide pipeline that would cut through the U.S. Midwest, an analysis by Reuters has found. Summit Carbon Solutions said last month it had negotiated easements with hundreds of landowners along the pipeline route, marking a major advance for what it hopes will become the world’s largest carbon capture and storage (CCS) project. But in Iowa, the state that would host the largest section of the proposed line, the company has reported just 40 land easements, covering just 1.9% of its 703-mile traverse, according to a database maintained by the Office of the Iowa County Recorder and analyzed by Reuters. The discrepancy raises questions about Summit’s progress in securing a route for the $4.5 billion project, dubbed the Midwest Carbon Express, which would transport carbon dioxide siphoned from ethanol processing facilities in five Midwestern states to North Dakota for underground storage. The company says the project will create jobs and combat climate change by helping biofuel producers to decarbonize. But many landowners worry the project could also damage farmland and impact human health in the event of a leak, according to Reuters interviews and a review of public comments filed with state regulators. If Summit fails to secure a route through voluntary agreements with landowners, it would have to resort to using eminent domain, a controversial legal tool that allows the government or its agents to take over land for the public interest. On Feb. 1, Summit issued a news release in which its CEO, Bruce Rastetter, said, "we’ve had early success signing hundreds of pipeline easements with farmers who have a vested interest in our success." But as of Feb. 22, the date of the most recent available filings in Iowa, Summit had recorded only 40 easements containing 68 tracts of land and covering 13.6 miles of the pipeline route, according to the data reviewed by Reuters. The four other states along the pipeline's route - Nebraska, South Dakota, North Dakota and Minnesota - do not publish statewide easement records.

Will U.S. climate goals withstand Russia’s war? - On his first day as president, Joe Biden pledged to tackle climate change. Fourteen months later, his administration is meeting with Venezuela’s authoritarian government as part of a wider attempt to rustle up more oil. Cue the line about best-laid plans. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has thrown a wrench into Biden’s climate agenda. Even before the crisis, oil markets were laboring to keep up with the galloping demand coming out of the pandemic-induced lockdowns of 2020. Now Russian President Vladimir Putin’s decision to attack Ukraine has thrown into doubt shipments from one of the world’s largest oil producers — and sent prices soaring. West Texas Intermediate, the benchmark price for U.S. crude, closed yesterday at $121 a barrel, or about double its price this time last year. That has left Biden scrambling. The White House acknowledged yesterday it sent representatives to Venezuela to speak about “energy security” with the government of Nicolás Maduro, the country’s strongman (E&E News PM, March 7). Analysts broadly agree that Biden, like all U.S. presidents, has few short-term tools to contain the runup in oil prices. Oil is a global commodity and its price is determined more by supply, demand and the whims of OPEC than the occupant of the Oval Office. But how Biden responds to the crisis could shape America’s long-term climate trajectory. Oil interests argue the crisis underscores the continued need for investment in fossil fuels. Greens contend the surge in energy prices presents an opportunity to promote alternatives such as renewables, electric cars and heat pumps. Some say Biden can do both: seek new short-term sources of supply even as the administration pushes a wider move to cleaner energy sources. “No one envisioned we would turn off fossil fuels overnight,” said Nate Hultman, a University of Maryland professor who helped draft Biden administration’s long-term climate strategy last year. “In terms of climate change, we were going to be using fossil fuels and phasing them out.” The administration’s efforts to secure short-term oil supplies will look like “a blip” in 10 to 30 years when measured against the wider movement toward cleaner energy sources, he said. “We’re talking about very short timelines to make sure there are no egregious price spikes, particularly for oil,” Hultman said. The approach carries risks for Biden’s climate agenda. The first is a matter of scope. U.S. crude production is estimated to rise from about 11.6 million barrels in January to 12.4 million barrels by the end of the year, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration. Global production outside Russia is projected to increase by more than 5 million barrels to almost 90 million barrels a day.

What Does the Russian Oil Ban Mean for the Clean Energy Transition? - President Biden announced today that the United States was banning all imports of Russian oil, gas and coal, the latest in a series of severe economic sanctions being waged against President Vladimir Putin for his unprovoked war in Ukraine. The United Kingdom also announced its own plan to phase out Russian oil and oil products by the end of the year.But breaking ties with Russia’s energy supply is the easy part. It’s what comes next that will be difficult, policy experts say. And exactly how Western countries choose to shift away from Russian fossil fuels will have major implications for the climate.As the Ukraine conflict puts a squeeze on an already volatile energy market, it is reigniting a decades-old argument over the importance of energy independence and the role renewable energy, such as solar and wind, should play in achieving it. In the United States, those in the debate have largely fallen into two camps. On one side, two senators from fossil-fuel producing states—Joe Manchin, D-W.Va, and Lisa Murkowski, R-Alaska—are leading an effort to replace Russian energy imports by increasing domestic production of oil and gas. On the other side, a group of climate hawks in the House have joined up with Sen. Martin Heinrich, D-N.M., to propose alternative legislation that would also ban Russian imports, but require the United States to replace them with renewable energy over time.Similarly in Europe, which is far more dependent on Russian oil than the U.S., climate campaigners are urging their lawmakers to hasten the transition to renewable energy and not to increase oil drilling in the Northern Sea as they implement new restrictions on Russian energy.Just 3 percent of crude oil imports into the U.S. came from Russia last year. Still, U.S. lawmakers are warning the already high energy prices could get even higher. Rising gasoline prices—which hit an average of $4 per gallon in the U.S. this week—are putting massive political pressure on government leaders to find quick solutions for consumers, even if they come at the expense of long-term environmental goals. Energy analysts say that could be a major problem for the clean energy transition, which is already struggling to meet expectations.

Green groups say gas crisis makes transition to renewables even more urgent - Environmentalist groups and Democrats see the recent ban on imports of Russian oil and the ban’s effects on American gas prices as a further incentive to accelerate development of renewable energy. The ban came the same week average gas prices in the U.S. hit a record high, and although the U.S. only imports a fraction of oil from Russia, during his speech announcing the ban, President Biden acknowledged the move would likely lead to even higher prices. Republicans and the fossil fuel industry have said the crisis demonstrates the need for further fossil fuel exploration domestically, but Democrats and environmentalists argue the economic pinch underscores the need to make the U.S. more energy independent, and to invest in green solutions. “[M]ost of my colleagues across the aisle seem to think that the way to reduce your exposure to a volatile commodity is to increase your use of a volatile commodity,” Rep. Sean Casten (D-Ill.) told The Hill in an interview. If the Russian import ban leads to increased domestic production of fossil fuels, Casten said, “all that's going to happen is that our country is going to be even more fossil-fuel dependent, we are going to set the world on fire faster for our kids, and we are going to be even more exposed the next time Vladimir Putin or [Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman] or whoever else does something that gooses global energy markets, because I can guarantee that there will be a next time.” The Ukraine crisis has demonstrated “how the dependence on oil completely destabilizes the lives of working people within our country,” said John Paul Mejia, national spokesperson for Sunrise Movement. Mejia criticized what he called “talking points from the oil and gas industry” in the U.S. that argue “energy independence will somehow be achieved by depending more so on oil and gas, just American, and that's a false solution.” Members of the administration have also signaled that they view the crisis as highlighting the need to transition. “This conflict [in Ukraine] has made it clear to us that we should double down and triple down on the transition, and to make it broader, bigger and faster,” Amos Hochstein, the State Department’s energy envoy, said Tuesday at the CERAWeek energy conference.

EPA Proposes Tougher Emissions Standards For Trucks - The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) today proposed tougher emissions standards for heavy duty trucks, vans, and busses, the first such upgrade for this category of vehicles since 2001. I am aware of the irony of the administration proposing new emissions standards at a time when skyrocketing world oil and natural gas prices will do far more to reduce emissions – as users cut back on their energy use – than any tweak in standards.Nonetheless, these new rules are the latest in a series of Biden administration policy initiatives intended to address climate change and other environmental standards. Per the New York Times:Late last year, the E.P.A. tightened standards on auto pollution and announced new rulesgoverning methane, a climate-warming gas that leaks from oil and gas wells. This year, the agency is expected to roll out new restrictions on greenhouse gases and on industrial soot released by power plants.As to specifics, the NYT reports:The new draft rule from the Environmental Protection Agency would require heavy-duty trucks to reduce emissions of nitrogen dioxide by 90 percent by 2031. Nitrogen dioxide is linked to lung cancer, heart disease and premature death.The E.P.A. also announced plans to slightly tighten truck emissions of carbon dioxide, a greenhouse gas that is driving climate change. The new rules for nitrogen oxide pollution would apply to trucks beginning with the model year 2027, while the carbon dioxide rules would apply to trucks starting with the model year 2024.The Wall Street Journal notes that the new standards could increase the cost of new vehicles significantly. That might lead to users keeping older vehicles on the road longer, thereby keeping emissions high and running counter to the Biden administration’s goals:“We’re concerned that the oldest, highest-emitting trucks on the road today are disproportionately operating in communities suffering from the greatest pollution,” said Jed Mandel, president of the truck and engine manufacturers’ group.EPA officials say that the new standards should reduce asthma and other public health problems. Per the WSJ:“These new standards will drastically cut dangerous pollution by harnessing recent advancements in vehicle technologies from across the trucking industry as it advances toward a zero-emissions transportation future,” EPA Administrator Michael Regan said.The Biden administration is framing the truck rule as an issue of environmental justice and elected to have Vice President Kamala Harris announce the new policy

GM and PG&E to test how EVs can power homes during blackouts - Using electric vehicles for backup power during blackouts has lately become a hot topic. Ford has made the concept a central selling point of its F-150 Lightning battery-powered pickup truck. Automakers, EV-charging manufacturers and energy services companies are eagerly promoting the role of ​“vehicle-to-grid” technology not only to keep the lights on during outages but also to help balance power grids when they are up and running. But there’s a lot of technical and regulatory work to be done to make this concept a mass-market reality. How will different EV chargers handle two-way power flows? How can homes balance their energy demands without depleting EV battery capacity? And what’s the role for utilities, which are responsible for ensuring that backup power sources are connected and operated safely? These are among the questions that California utility Pacific Gas & Electric and automaker General Motors plan to answer together. Over the course of 2022, the two will run a pilot project that will put multiple GM EVs in the role of backup generators, first in the lab and then in actual homes.

'Buy American' rule could pave way for minerals purchases - The Biden administration today finalized a rule potentially paving the way for more government purchases of materials mined in the United States.The Defense Department rule serves to advance President Biden’s commitment to bolster existing “Buy American” requirements that prioritize government purchasing of material made within U.S. borders. Text of the rule has excited some in the mining industry, as it creates a framework for agencies to buy select materials mined in the U.S. at higher prices.Specifically, the rule sets forth a framework to let the government set an “enhanced price preference” for certain products and components “mined, produced, or manufactured in the United States and deemed critical to the U.S. supply chain.”Commenters to the proposed version of the rule recommended specific minerals qualify for the “enhanced” purchases, including tantalum and niobium, titanium and superalloys, along with rare earths, according to a notice finalizing the rule that was published in the Federal Register. The administration is preparing a proposal listing materials qualifying as “critical” to be released in the near future, the notice stated.The rule follows a Defense Department report published last month calling for the U.S. Congress to provide the authority to acquire stockpiles of minerals considered “critical” by the federal government. The U.S. Geological Survey manages a list of these minerals and last month finalized an updated array of 50 critical minerals, including tantalum, niobium, titanium and rare earths.Congress recently granted a similar power to the Energy Department for purchasing uranium mined at home, although the program has yet to be fully executed (Greenwire, March 1).Todd Malan, chief external affairs office for mining company Talon Metals, told E&E News in an email that it would “make sense” if the Buy American rule “incorporates the ‘critical minerals list’ too.” Talon oversees the Tamarack nickel mining project in northern Minnesota and is receiving funding for some of its operations from DOE.Historically, policy discussions around Buy American requirements have primarily centered on how much processed material, like iron and steel, should be purchased and used by the military.However, minerals are important to that discussion as defense-grade steel is often made with some critical minerals because it can withstand the high temperatures reached inside rockets, jets and certain weaponry. DOD also has general authority to fund mining projects key to the defense industrial base under the Defense Production Act.

EPA power to reel in coal power emissions challenged, now elevated to Supreme Court - The Supreme Court is considering a case that challenges the EPA's ability to regulate greenhouse gas emissions from coal power plants.Fossil fuel-producing states and coal companies, led by West Virginia, argued that the EPA does not have the authority to shift electricity generation from coal to renewable sources like wind and solar, according to NBC News.After over two hours of oral arguments Monday, it was unclear if the coal-fueled conservative coalition would get what it wanted, according to the report. Some conservative justices reportedly appeared receptive to the argument against EPA regulation of coal power plants, but more liberal justices didn't seem convinced.Under the Obama administration, the EPA proposed rules to limit power-plant emissions and credit operators for switching to renewable energy. The same coalition of states and coal companies sued, and the Supreme Court ultimately blocked enforcement of the rule, which was then abandoned by the EPA.Under the Trump administration, the EPA proposed relaxed emissions rules, which were then challenged by a different group of states, as well as environmental groups. On Trump's final day in office, the U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit struck down the relaxed rules, leaving no power-plant emissions policy in place. But the appeals-court ruling leaves the door open for the Biden administration to resurrect restrictions on power-plant emissions, NBC News noted.A Supreme Court ruling in favor of the cohort led by West Virginia would put an end to that, and could have severe long-term consequences, Ramon Cruz, president of the Sierra Club, said in a statement. Calling the case a "right wing power grab," he said it could limit the ability of all federal agencies to operate under their mandates.

EPA strategy curbs coal, spotlights gas and renewables -EPA Administrator Michael Regan today laid out his agency’s full power-sector game plan, previewing a slate of upcoming rulemakings that will speed the end of coal as the mainstay of U.S. power generation while refocusing the regulatory spotlight on natural gas. The many-pronged strategy Regan unveiled in remarks at an energy conference in Houston encompasses the full range of EPA’s regulatory authorities for power plants — from greenhouse gases to hazardous air pollutants to wastewater and residuals. But he framed the forthcoming EPA rules as support for the work he said the industry is already doing — namely, phasing out coal in favor of a growing gas fleet and cheaper renewable energy. “The power sector is becoming cleaner because technology and markets are leading us there,” he said. “You are leading us there because, like anyone who wants to be competitive in the future, you’re aligning investments accordingly.” “This is a pivotal moment for the sector, and EPA is ready to seize it,” he said, in remarks prepared for the CERAWeek by S&P Global conference. Many of the rules in EPA’s regulatory pipeline would add compliance costs for coal-fired power, potentially encouraging utilities to shut down some plants ahead of schedule. But Regan argued that the U.S. coal fleet is hitting “headwinds” anyway due to its age and market factors. He pointed to recent announcements by Georgia Power and Duke Energy Corp. in which those companies committed to shutter their significant coal-fired investments by 2035 as part of a midcentury decarbonization plan. He praised those moves as “sound, long-term investments that support a growing economy while reducing the pollution that harms our health and jeopardizes our climate.” Regan has been hinting for months that he would give industry a holistic picture of EPA’s thinking on power plant regulation to give companies a chance to make informed investment decisions — which might include retiring older plants rather than spending on upgrades. “The EPA hasn’t always aligned the timing of its air pollution regulations with rules on other types of pollution, such as water and waste, because of deadlines and lawsuits,” he told conference host Daniel Yergin in a question-and-answer session after his remarks.

Eagle Valley sits idle for one year. AES customers have to pay up. - When AES Indiana’s Eagle Valley natural gas plant started operating four years ago, it was touted as state-of-the-art and one of the most efficient plants in Indiana. But disconnected wires and ruptured pipes have conked out the plant for what will be close to 14 months — nearly one-third of its life. Residents already are paying for the $600 million plant to sit idle. Now they also will pay for the power AES Indiana, formerly known as Indianapolis Power & Light, bought from the grid to cover the outage. In recent months, state utility regulators approved AES Indiana’s requests to pass that cost onto customers. Monthly bills will increase by more than $5 total, and at least $1 of that is because of Eagle Valley specifically. The rest of the increase is due to higher natural gas prices and other costs. As the Eagle Valley outage drags on, however, customers and consumer advocates are just beginning to understand the true costs of the problems — and what they will mean for future bills. They could also be saddled with costs for the actual repairs related to equipment and labor. But the full impact won’t be known until the utility’s next rate case, which likely will be filed in the next few years. “It likely will be quite a few million dollars by the time this is all said and done,” said Kerwin Olson, executive director of consumer-advocacy group Citizens Action Coalition. “But we are still early in understanding how much it will cost customers.” The company, formerly known as IPL, said that as soon as it needed to purchase additional power from the grid, it used various strategies to lessen the price risk to customers. “AES Indiana has taken proactive steps to mitigate the curation and costs of the outage,” said utility spokeswoman Kelly Young. According to testimony the utility has filed in this case, that’s why AES Indiana believes it should be allowed to shift the costs incurred from this incident to customers’ bills.

Gas explosion rips though apartment complex in Silver Spring, Maryland-- On Thursday morning at about 10:30 a.m. local time, a sudden explosion tore through an apartment complex, injuring over a dozen people in the Washington D.C. suburb of Silver Spring, Maryland. The Friendly Garden Apartments development consists of six four-story buildings situated in a quiet neighborhood across the street from a local park. On March 3, it became the site of a massive fire, following what witnesses described as a loud “boom” that caused the ground nearby to shake. Firefighters work the scene after an explosion and fire caused an apartment building to collapse in Silver Spring, Md., Thursday, March, 3, 2022. (AP Photo/Alex Brandon) The Montgomery County Fire Department said on Twitter that a call came in at 10:37 a.m. reporting a fire at on the first floor of one of the buildings. By the time firefighters arrived, the raging blaze had already taken hold on all four floors of one of the buildings. Fire Chief Scott Goldstein said the incident injured 14 people, sending 10 of them to the hospital. About 225 people have been displaced by the incident, 35 of them due to the destruction of their units and the rest due to 'short term” and “long term” displacement, Goldstein added. He said three of the complex’s six buildings are now “unsafe to reoccupy.” One video of the incident posted to social media shows the complex from a high angle, capturing the height of the flames from the fire as they reach above the top of the building. In another video of the incident, captured from a nearby security camera, an entire wall of the building is blown out from the inside as if from a demolition, followed by black smoke rolling out of the structure. Patricia Tyson, a witness who lives nearby, told Bethesda Magazine, “It felt like something almost fell on my house.” Tyson, who knows someone who lived at Friendly Gardens, said, “We started praying immediately for her. She takes care of a son who’s in a wheelchair.” On Friday, Fire Chief Goldstein appeared before the press with an update on the incident, saying investigators had discovered a cut pipe in the basement of the building that blew up and caught fire. Working with the fire department in the investigation are Washington Gas and Pepco, the local utilities.

People Missing After Silver Spring, Maryland, Apartment Explosion – Fourteen people are hurt but all residents are accounted for after a powerful explosion and fire ripped through an apartment complex in Silver Spring, Maryland, on Thursday, officials said in an update Friday. Investigators combing through wreckage at the Friendly Garden Apartments complex on Friday found a cut gas pipe in the basement of the building where the explosion occurred, Montgomery County Fire Chief Scott Goldstein said at an afternoon news conference.One theory on the possible cause of the explosion is related to plumbing work being done by a property management worker before the blast, Goldstein said. He stressed that it is only a theory at this early stage. The worker is hospitalized and was interviewed by investigators. “It is possible that the worker cut that gas pipe,” Goldstein said. Officials are still not saying exactly what caused the blast at the Friendly Garden Apartments, but the fire chief did say they discovered a cut gas line. News4's Darcy Spencer reports.The source of ignition is still unclear.According to multiple sources familiar with the early stages of the investigation, the maintenance worker told investigators, from his hospital bed, that he’d been conducting a plumbing repair in the basement utility room. The sources say the man said he was surprised when he cut a pipe, referred to as a line, and no water came out. He then went upstairs to a first-floor apartment to troubleshoot.Not long afterward the building exploded from the ground up.Three people, including a child, have serious injuries, Goldstein said. The others, including another child, have injuries that range from minor to moderate. Seven people have been discharged from hospitals, and seven are still being treated. Miraculously, no known residents of 2405 Lyttonsville Road — the building where the explosion occurred — died or are missing. Crews, including search dogs, continued to comb the rubble on Friday in case someone visiting the building, such as a delivery worker, could have been killed, Goldstein said. Dogs trained to search for human remains gave “possible indications of alerts” on Thursday. On Friday morning, they alerted to the front, left corner of the building where the explosion occurred, Goldstein said. They alerted to a similar area again later in the day. “Until we get down to the dirt beneath any of the debris, we will be considering that we have a victim,” Goldstein said. It’s possible that the dogs are picking up on people’s clothing or personal items, not human remains, he said. A fence blocked off the destroyed buildings Friday morning. Crumbled bricks, charred building materials and residents' personal items could be seen.

Silver Spring apartment explosion: gas pipe cut by mistake, officials say - A massive apartment building explosion in Silver Spring will be ruled accidental, officials said Monday, after investigators concluded that a maintenance worker mistakenly cut through a gas line in a basement utility room while addressing a plumbing problem. “He went down there to cut a pipe that he believed to be a drain waste pipe,” Montgomery County Fire Chief Scott Goldstein said. A subsequent gas buildup was ignited by an unknown source, causing the blast Thursday morning at the Friendly Garden Apartments just north of D.C. Fourteen people were injured. Two residents remained hospitalized on Monday, one in critical condition, Goldstein said. That the blast erupted at 10:30 a.m., when many residents were away at work or in school, likely prevented deaths. An extensive search of the rubble has left firefighters “confident and comfortable” that no victims got trapped inside, Goldstein said. It started with the maintenance worker trying to fix a clogged drain in a first-floor unit. He inserted a snake tool into a line to try to get at the clog, Goldstein said, before heading to a basement utility area directly below the unit. The line that he mistakenly cut, officials said, was 1½ inches in diameter. Even after cutting through it, there is no indication the worker realized what he had done. After cutting the pipe, he placed a cap over the hole. But that cap was designed for a plumbing line not a gas line, Goldstein said. The pipe was not labeled, officials said. And because it was relatively wide, and because it was located at a point in the building’s system that had forced its pressure to be reduced, any sudden outflow of gas might not have be heard. “You’re not going to hear a loud hissing, and you’re not going to have a rush of gas coming out of even an inch-and-a-half gas pipe,” Goldstein said.

US coal plants slashed their mercury pollution. North Dakota accounts for a big share of what remains - InForum | Fargo, Moorhead and West Fargo news, weather and sports — Over the last decade, power plants across the country have slashed the amount of mercury they release into the atmosphere. But of the electricity sector’s remaining mercury emissions, North Dakota’s fleet of coal-fired power plants contributes a disproportionate share.Coal-burning facilities in North Dakota have cut their mercury emissions from more than 2,300 pounds in 2010 to 847 pounds in 2020, according to data supplied by the state Department of Environmental Quality. That mirrors a national trend, as some coal plants around the country have been replaced by natural gas and the rest have had to adapt to tighter environmental policies from the federal government.While coal-fired power is no longer the country's largest source of mercury pollution , North Dakota plants dominate recent catalogs of the biggest mercury emitters in that sector. In 2020, North Dakota ranked second only to Texas in mercury emissions released by facilities regulated under the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s mercury and air toxics standards,according to agency data . And an analysis of the country's largest power producers, compiled last year by the consultancy Environmental Resources Management, showed that four of the country’s top six mercury-emitting coal plants were in North Dakota in 2019. Coal Creek Station, the largest coal-fired power plant in the state, ranked second.Dave Glatt, director of the state Department of Environmental Quality, said all six coal-fired power plants in North Dakota are in compliance with the EPA’s current mercury standards, and noted that while those plants may have high mercury emissions compared to facilities in other parts of the country, they account for a small cut of national totals, which include sources beyond the power sector. He added that emissions from North Dakota facilities are relatively high compared to other states in large part due to the low-grade coal, called lignite, that fuels the state’s power plants. Lignite contains higher concentrations of mercury than coals mined in most other parts of the country, and, as a result, is subject to a less stringent EPA standard.

O'Rourke says Texas oil tycoon is suing him for defamation -- Texas gubernatorial hopeful and former Rep. Beto O’Rourke (D) said Monday that he is being sued by an oil tycoon over comments he made about the state’s electric grid failure last year. O’Rourke told reporters Monday that Kelcy Warren, CEO of Energy Transfer, had filed the suit against him in state court. “He is going to try to take me to court, use his billions of dollars to try to shut me down and shut us up from telling the story of what happened to the people of Texas,” the former Democratic presidential candidate said. “We are not backing down,” he added, calling the suit “frivolous.” Warren is a billionaire who has historically donated to Republicans. Energy Transfer operates the controversial Dakota Access Pipeline and has energy facilities throughout Texas. The Texas Tribune reported that Warren donated $1 million to Texas Gov. Greg Abbott (R), O’Rourke’s opponent, amid a surge in energy donations last year. The paper said that he had also previously donated to the candidate. The newspaper cited energy experts as saying that a flood of energy industry donations received by officials “looks like a reward for not passing more stringent regulations.”

Chernobyl plant disconnected from power grid, operator says - Ukraine’s closed Chernobyl nuclear power plant has been disconnected from the nation’s power grid by Russian forces, Ukraine’s state-owned grid operator Ukrenergo said Wednesday, potentially jeopardizing the cooling of nuclear material stored at the site.“Because of military actions of Russian occupiers the nuclear power plant in Chornobyl was fully disconnected from the power grid. Nuclear station has no power supply,” Ukrenergo said in a statement on its official Telegram page, using Ukraine’s spelling for the plant.Electricity is needed for cooling, ventilation and fire-extinguishing systems at the closed site. In a statement on its Facebook page, Ukrenergo also said that emergency diesel generators have been turned on but that the fuel would last for only 48 hours.Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba on Wednesday demanded a cease-fire with Russia to allow repairs.“The only electrical grid supplying the Chornobyl NPP and all its nuclear facilities occupied by Russian army is damaged,” he tweeted. “ … I call on the international community to urgently demand Russia to cease fire and allow repair units to restore power supply.”He warned that after reserve diesel generators run out of fuel, “cooling systems of the storage facility for spent nuclear fuel will stop, making radiation leaks imminent. Putin’s barbaric war puts entire Europe in danger.”The International Atomic Energy Agency said Wednesday on Twitter that the power loss “violates [a] key safety pillar on ensuring uninterrupted power supply,” but it added that “in this case IAEA sees no critical impact on safety.” The agency said factors including the volume of cooling water at Chernobyl were “sufficient for effective heat removal without need for electrical supply.”The IAEA also said Tuesday that it had lost contact with monitoring systems that transmit data on nuclear material at the Chernobyl plant.The U.N. nuclear watchdog’s director general “indicated that remote data transmission from safeguards monitoring systems installed at the Chornobyl NPP had been lost,” the IAEA said in a statement. “The Agency is looking into the status of safeguards monitoring systems in other locations in Ukraine and will provide further information soon,” it added.

Ukraine Warns That Power Cut at Chernobyl Could Cause Nuclear Accident – WSJ -Ukrainian authorities said Wednesday that a power cut caused by Russian attacks on Kyiv could deprive the Chernobyl nuclear site of power within 48 hours, leading to a potential meltdown of spent nuclear fuel. The warning was the latest of several incidents threatening Ukraine’s nuclear sites in the wake of the Russian invasion of the country last month. The International Atomic Energy Agency on Wednesday played down risks of an imminent problem at Chernobyl, the site of the world’s biggest nuclear accident, in 1986, which contaminated large areas of surrounding countryside and sent a plume of radioactive dust that spread across Europe. They and other experts say Ukraine’s nuclear facilities are on the whole modernized and robust. Never before has such an intense conflict taken place around so many nuclear power facilities. Last week, a Russian projectile caused a fire at a building in the largest nuclear power plant in Europe, the Zaporizhzhia facility in Ukraine, around 340 miles southeast of Kyiv, which contains six reactors. Communications between Ukraine’s regulator and some of the nuclear facilities has been reduced and on Tuesday, the IAEA said it had lost contact with monitoring systems that send the agency data and information on activities at Chernobyl. The irradiated fuel ponds of the type Ukrainian authorities warned about at Chernobyl on Wednesday contain radioactive substances like iodine, cesium and plutonium. However, they are usually built out of concrete and buried underground. At Chernobyl, the nuclear waste has been stored for over two decades, making it potentially hazardous to staff but unlikely to cause a major accident. “The Chernobyl Power Plant has been shut down since 2000, and therefore the spent fuel rods stored on the site have been cooled for 22 years. Therefore they will not be producing significant amounts of heat, making a release of radiation very unlikely,” said Prof. Geraldine Thomas of Imperial College London. Steve Nesbit, president of the American Nuclear Society, sees the chances of an explosion or meltdown at Ukraine’s nuclear facilities being relatively low. One risk is a hydrogen explosion at Ukraine’s pressurized water reactors of the type that happened in the 1979 Three Mile Island accident in the U.S. If a reactor was knocked off the power grid and the backup system failed, there could be damage to the core of the reactor within hours, which could lead to a buildup of hydrogen outside the reactor. However, as was the case at Three Mile Island, a hydrogen explosion shouldn’t pierce through the concrete containment structure shielding the reactor, built to design major shocks, Mr. Nesbit said.The IAEA has said there has been no turnover of the more than 200 staff at Chernobyl since Feb. 23, raising worries about their well-being and ability to do their jobs. Missiles have struck two other nuclear-related facilities, although none of the incidents has yet caused any radioactive release, the agency said. “The situation in Ukraine is unprecedented and I continue to be gravely concerned,” International Atomic Energy Agency Director General Rafael Grossi said last week. Ukraine has four nuclear plants dotted around the country, plus the Chernobyl site near the Belarus border, supplying around half of the country’s electricity supply. The facilities, which include 15 reactors, are generally considered safe and reasonably modernized, including being outfitted with safety procedures recommended after the 2011 Fukushima nuclear disaster in Japan, experts say.

Ukraine calls for ceasefire to restore power at Chernobyl -Ukraine has appealed to Russia for a temporary ceasefire to allow repairs to be made to a power line to the Chernobyl nuclear power plant, warning that there could be a radiation leak if the electricity outage continued. Ukraine’s state-run nuclear company Energoatom said on Wednesday fighting between Ukrainian and Russian forces made it impossible to immediately repair the high-voltage power line to the plant, which has been captured by Russian forces. Energoatom said radioactive substances could be released if the plant cannot cool spent nuclear fuel, and Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba said reserve diesel generators can power the plant for only 48 hours. After that, “cooling systems of the storage facility for spent nuclear fuel will stop, making radiation leaks imminent,” he wrote on Twitter. “The only electrical grid supplying the Chernobyl NPP and all its nuclear facilities occupied [the] by Russian army is damaged,” Kuleba said in another Tweet. “I call on the international community to urgently demand Russia to cease fire and allow repair units to restore power supply,” he added. The United Nations’ nuclear watchdog said the event does not have a critical impact on safety. The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) wrote on Twitter that the “heat load of spent fuel storage pool and volume of cooling water at Chernobyl Nuclear Power Plant [are] sufficient for effective heat removal without [the] need for electrical supply”. In a note released on March 3, the IAEA had said that the site has backup emergency diesel generators available “should there be a total loss of power”. The Chernobyl plant was seized by Russian forces on February 24, the first day of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

Weibo users baselessly claim Ukraine set fire to its own nuclear plant, as Beijing's pro-Putin stance fuels online misinformation in China about the war - In the hours after a fire was reported close to Ukraine's Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant last Friday, China's Twitter-like service Weibo lit up with comments. Responding to news reports shared to China's state-run media Weibo accounts, users were quick to blame the perceived perpetrator: Ukraine. “Self-directed, self-produced?" a user asked in the comments section in the first minute after Global Times' initial post on Weibo about the fire.Another wrote: "Could it be them setting it on fire themselves?"This last post, made two days after the incident, came after outlets on the ground such as AP reported, and the Ukrainian government stated, that Russian forces had shelled the plant, setting a building on fire. Moscow, on the other hand, sowed confusion by claiming Ukrainian perpetrators had set the building alight.It can be difficult to verify information in the first hours after a fast-moving news development.But within the highly-regulated confines of China's cyberspace, the continued existence of false claims — long after they've been debunked — highlights the fight China's tech giants are up against as the war in Ukraine deepens."For a Chinese tech company, whether something is factually true or false isn't really related to what's online," said Rogier Creemers, an assistant professor in modern Chinese studies at Leiden University in the Netherlands. They have to follow whichever direction political winds blow," he said.

In Ohio, Interior Secretary Haaland stresses justice and jobs in mine and well cleanup plans -- Interior Secretary Deb Haaland got out into the field last week to visit abandoned mine and oil well sites in Ohio and to talk with labor leaders about how federal infrastructure work can promote justice and jobs.“These historic investments are all part of the administration’s all-of-government approach to support communities as they address the lingering impacts of extractive industries in transition to a clean energy future,” Haaland said at the March 4 tour stop at the North Shore AFL-CIO Federation of Labor in Cleveland.“A lot of under-represented communities are exactly that: under-represented,” Haaland said. “They haven’t had a choice where the federal government puts funds.” Under the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law, “we want to make sure that 40% of those investments go to those communities, because everybody deserves to have an opportunity in this country.”Last month the Department of the Interior announced nearly $725 million in funding for abandoned mine land reclamation under the law. Haaland and White House advisor Mitch Landrieu announced an additional $144 million in funding during the Cleveland tour stop. Of those allotments, Ohio is eligible for more than $50 million, if state officials apply for the funds.“The reality is that legacy pollution continues to pollute too many of our waterways and neighborhoods, and we must not look away any longer,” Haaland said. “Right here in Ohio is where we can make a major difference.”Earlier in the day, she and Landrieu visited three former mine sites near Mineral City, a rural area roughly 20 miles south of Canton. One site presented a “before” picture of hazardous highwalls, pit impoundments and uncontrolled mine drainage. Two other stops showed how different sites can look after cleanup and reclamation for community use.“Eastern Ohio has the chance to look a lot different in ten years, let alone in 15 years,” said Marissa Lautzenheiser, who grew up in the area and met with Haaland and Landrieu during their site visits. She is northern programs coordinator for Rural Action, which works on environmental justice and sustainable development for Appalachian Ohio. The Dessecker project won a national award in 2019 and the area can now be enjoyed as part of a scouting camp, she said.Ongoing treatment at the Huff Run-Farr project removes about 70% of the acidity and iron content from the runoff from a mine area that dates back to the early 1900s. Fish diversity at the mouth of Huff Run has increased from one species in 1997 to 27 species in 2020, Lautzenheiser noted.While fish are benefiting from reclamation, Landrieu noted that the main goal of the work is to help people.“We had an opportunity to talk to a number of gentlemen that have basically given their lives to making sure that the country had energy and have felt left behind,” in some cases for two generations, Landrieu said. “It was the first time that they felt heard in a very long time.” Funding from the infrastructure bill can help large portions of eastern Ohio so they can rebuild “lost generational wealth” they could have had if coal companies had fairly compensated people for environmental harm and been required to properly clean up sites the first time, Lautzenheiser explained. Property values would have been substantially higher now. And communities would have been better able “to build generational wealth that is so tied up in property in the United States,” she said.

Ohio judge withdraws from probes into nuclear bailout he helped write - Ohio Capital Journal -- A state judge who oversees utility cases withdrew himself Friday from four cases involving legislation now at the center of a criminal public corruption investigation. Greg Price, an attorney examiner with the Public Utilities Commission of Ohio and chief of the electric and energy section, stepped back from investigations into FirstEnergy Corp. He cited the “truly unique circumstances” in play.The company admitted in a statement of facts to the U.S. Department of Justice last summer it transferred about $60 million into an account controlled by the Former House Speaker to pass House Bill 6 in 2019. It also said it paid the former PUCO chairman, Sam Randazzo, about $4.3 million just before he started, all for legal and regulatory favors to the company.“Due to the fact that I provided legal review and advice to the previous Commission Chairman regarding [HB 6] and in light of the truly unique circumstances presented today, I have concluded that it is in the best interest of the Commission that I withdraw from presiding over these four proceedings,” Price wrote in a letter.His withdrawal comes after the Ohio Capital Journal reported last week that subpoenaed records the PUCO provided to the DOJ show the extent of his involvement behind the scenes as HB 6 passed. Since its passage, meanwhile, Price has issued several rulings on FirstEnergy PUCO cases that have blocked access to documents and witnesses.The report revealed two documents listing Price — along with Scott Elisar, Randazzo’s former law partner who was hired as PUCO’s policy director — as an employee formally reviewing the legislation for the agency in 2019. HB 6 provided bailouts to two nuclear plants owned at the time by a FirstEnergy subsidiary. This and other provisions were worth an estimated $1.3 billion to the company.FirstEnergy acknowledged its payments to politicians in a deferred prosecution agreement in which it paid a $230 million penalty and said it would cooperate with prosecutors to possibly avert a charge of honest services wire fraud. Randazzo has not been charged with a crime and has maintained his innocence. Householder awaits trial for a charge of racketeering.However, Price’s “withdrawal” raises other questions, including whether he will wield influence with the commissioners or his replacement in final dispositions of the cases. His letter also seemed to imply he assists with other legislation that controls cases he presides over. “During my tenure at the Commission, it has been my privilege to review legislation pending before the General Assembly and advise the Chair and Commissioners regarding legal issues raised by such legislation,” he said. “I have also presided over many cases involving the subsequent implementation of legislation for which I had previously provided legal advice.”

Ohio regulatory judge steps back from FirstEnergy's HB 6 cases after subpoenaed records reveal his role --An Ohio regulatory official has stepped away from four FirstEnergy regulatory cases just three weeks after the release of subpoenaed documents showing he took part in policy matters relating to House Bill 6, the nuclear and coal bailout law at the heart of an ongoing corruption scandal.The materials show that Gregory Price, a hearing examiner overseeing House Bill 6 cases for the Public Utilities Commission of Ohio, was looped in on policy communications with former PUCO Chair Sam Randazzo before the law passed in 2019 and when bills to repeal it were proposed in 2020, in the wake of the arrests of former Ohio House Speaker Larry Householder and others. Later disclosures by FirstEnergyimplicated Randazzo in the scandal; he has resigned from his position but denied culpability.From September 2020 on, Price then acted in a judge-like role in cases looking at different aspects of whether FirstEnergy improperly used ratepayer money to fund its House Bill 6 activities. One case, opened in September 2020, is supposed to determine whether money for FirstEnergy’s HB 6 activities or political and charitable spending came directly or indirectly from utility ratepayers. Another continuing case deals with corporate separation issues. A third case deals with an unlawful rider that funneled more than $400 million to a money pool managed by a FirstEnergy affiliate. And a fourth case focuses on charges for a capital investment rider. That piecemeal approach has revealed some violations and questionable practices by FirstEnergy. Yet rulings by Price and others have compartmentalized the cases, limiting inquiry into related matters instead of taking a broad approach.Price’s rulings have also limited access to documents and information sought by the Office of the Ohio Consumers’ Counsel. Those include the FirstEnergy investigation that led to the firing of former CEO Chuck Jones and others, a draft audit report that Randazzo allegedly had “burned,” and other materials.An online list of “illustrative” job duties for the type of position Price holds includes presiding over complex utility cases, administration, training, and expert advice on proposed policy and legislation. But the wording is ambiguous, with a capitalized “OR” between one set of possible administrative and policy responsibilities and three other descriptions.Regulatory agencies generally should avoid having people act in both a policy capacity and in a judge-like role dealing with a policy position they advocated for, said Ashley Brown, a former PUCO commissioner who heads the Harvard Electricity Policy Group. If regulators are seen as having already taken a position on certain policy issues, they are less likely to be viewed as impartial adjudicators who will be fair to all parties. Regulators generally should recuse themselves in such cases to avoid an appearance of impropriety. That concern is even more pressing in the HB 6 cases, Brown said.“These are extraordinary circumstances,” Brown said, referring to the corruption scandal. “There’s no way where anybody who had anything to do with House Bill 6 should be anywhere near FirstEnergy in House Bill 6 cases.”Allegations about the scandal and issues about Randazzo’s possible role have been public knowledge since 2020. FirstEnergy’s further disclosures about Randazzo last summer triggered more criticism of the PUCO’s piecemeal approach and its resistance to a comprehensive investigation of FirstEnergy and its utilities. Price stepped down from the four FirstEnergy cases on March 4.“In light of the truly unique circumstances presented today, I have concluded that it is in the best interest of the Commission that I withdraw from presiding over these four proceedings,” Price said in his March 4 withdrawal letter.Price did not specify whether the truly unique circumstances were the allegations about corruption and HB 6, Randazzo’s alleged role in the scandal, or something else.

DeWine reappoints utility commissioner who didn't do much to protect FirstEnergy customers - One might think that Gov. Mike Dewine would want to clean house at the Public Utilities Commission of Ohio. In 2019, his first year as governor, he signed a $1.3 billion utility bailout law that federal prosecutors later said was the product of the biggest political bribery and money-laundering scheme in Ohio history.He also appointed a man to chair the state’s utility regulator who had just taken a $4.3 million payment from FirstEnergy, the company that spearheaded the effort to pass the corrupt bailout. Once on the job, PUCO Chairman Sam Randazzo, who has denied wrongdoing, acted more as an energy lobbyist than as a regulator as hetried to save FirstEnergy millions, according to text messages among FirstEnergy’s top executives. And, in the years just before the bailout scandal, the PUCO granted FirstEnergy a $164 million-a-year rate increase, supposedly to upgrade its power grid. A subsequent audit said it was impossible to tell how the money was spent, so auditors couldn’t tell if it was part of the $61 million used to pass the corrupt bailout.But instead of cleaning house at the embattled regulator, DeWine is reappointing a commissioner who apparently did little to ensure that FirstEnergy used the extra money improving the electrical grid. “The Governor reappointed Commissioner (Daniel) Conway because he has shown himself to be fair and judicious in his role on the PUCO,” DeWine Press Secretary Dan Tierney said in an email. “Prior to his initial appointment by Governor (John) Kasich, Commissioner Conway represented both ratepayers and utilities.”But during his service, Conway has voted with a commission that seems to have been pretty friendly to electric utilities, including scandal-plagued FirstEnergy.A former utility lawyer, Conway has been on the PUCO since April 2017. Six months earlier, the commission allowed FirstEnergy to increase rates for a purpose that was dressed up as modernizing the power grid.But the language regulators used in allowing the huge revenue increase was slippery. It said that grid modernization could be expensive, and that the funds could be used to pay for it directly. But then it added that FirstEnergy could use the huge new pot of cash to support grid modernization “indirectly.”

PTTGCA seeks renewal of permit for proposed Ohio site - Plastics News - PTTGC America, part of Thailand-based PTT Global Chemical Public Co. Ltd., plans to renew an air permit for a proposed plastics and petrochemical complex in Ohio. PTTGC America, part of Thailand-based PTT Global Chemical Public Co. Ltd., plans to renew an air permit for a proposed plastics and petrochemical complex in Ohio. PTTGC has cleared land at the site and received $70 million in funding from Ohio, but the company hasn't made a final decision on the project. Company officials said Feb. 23 on the firm's website that PTTGCA "is in the process of drafting an application for an air permit from the Ohio EPA in accordance with its parent company's Net Zero commitment." An existing air permit for the site in Dilles Bottom was issued in late 2018, but expired Feb. 24. Officials added that the resubmission "will be consistent with the ambitious environmental protection goal" announced last year by PTT Global Chemical, PTTGCA's Thai-based parent company. PTTGCA has invested more than $300 million in the Ohio project and "has prioritized identifying potential partners in order to move the project forward," officials said. Daelim Industrial Co. of South Korea withdrew from the project in mid-2020. "The support and patience of the Ohio River Valley has been crucial to the progress PTTGCA has made toward making the proposed petrochemical complex a reality," officials added. The project — first proposed in 2015 — would include polyethylene resin production and would take advantage of low-priced shale gas feedstock that's been developed in the region in the last decade. If the plant is built, it would be the second major PE resin complex to be built in the region to take advantage of shale gas feedstocks. Shell Polymers will open PE plant with 3 billion pounds of annual capacity in Monaca, Pa., later this year. Shell chose the site because of its access to the Marcellus and Utica shale-based natural gas deposits. Natural gas can be converted into ethane and then into ethylene and PE resin. The site will be the first U.S. PE plant built outside of the Gulf Coast in at least 40 years. In June 2020, a group of engineers, economists and other professionals sent a letter advising against the Dilles Bottom project to the governors of Ohio, Pennsylvania and West Virginia. Dilles Bottom is in close proximity to all three states. The group included professors from Ohio State University, Carnegie Mellon University and the University of Akron. In the letter, they wrote in favor of clean energy policies, including electric vehicles, energy storage, wind power and solar power. The letter also stated that "our goals for economic growth and job creation are being undermined by the mistaken belief that the region's petrochemical and plastics manufacturing industries are poised to greatly expand and … generate large numbers of new jobs." PTTGC responded at the time by saying through a spokesman that the proposed petrochemical complex "would be a multibillion-dollar investment that would yield a positive economic impact for generations to come" and that a final investment decision "will be based upon a long view of industry and consumer markets, not temporary fluctuations and trends.";

Not in Anyone's Backyard? - Cincinnati Magazine - Justin and Ann Feldman used to love their home in Reading, until Duke Energy constructed a high-pressure natural gas pipeline under Market Street in front of it. “The scariest part is that if that line was cracked and would catch fire and would explode,” says Justin Feldman, his voice rising, “we could be incinerated.” The Feldmans’ daughter and grandchildren also live on the pipeline route, deepening their fears. For nearly six years, the Feldmans fought Duke Energy over the construction of the C314V Central Corridor Pipeline. Many in Hamilton County did, from local high schoolers to seniors to politicians. Nearly every community on the route intervened. But the fight came to an end in September, with a decision by the Supreme Court of Ohio to side with the Ohio Power Siting Board and grant Duke a certificate to build. “The decision is a disappointment,” said a statement from city leaders in Blue Ash, who, along with the municipalities of Reading and Evendale and a grassroots opposition group, argued their case to the state supreme court. “The City put up a strong fight to protect the community and its residents.” Now it’s done. The final weld of the approximately 13-mile pipeline was made on December 14, and it now lies a minimum of four feet underground from the southern border of Butler County through the Hamilton County communities of Sycamore Township, Blue Ash, Sharonville, Evendale, Reading, Amberley Village, Golf Manor, and Cincinnati, ending at Duke’s C350 Norwood Station. Safety has always been opponents’ biggest concern. An average of 11 people die each year in pipeline incidents, according to 10- year tracking by the U.S. Department of Transportation’s Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety Administration. Duke plans to have the pipeline operational by early March, with restoration projects along the route wrapping up this spring. Company leaders reiterate that they’ve exceeded federal safety requirements and have the track record to operate the pipeline safely. Statistically, now that the pipeline is in the ground, the biggest danger may be, well, the rest of us.

Oil and gas industry groups try to block implementation of rule to better protect the Great Lakes -A new rule went into effect last month, requiring oil and gas companies to better monitor their pipelines if they are in sensitive coastal areas such as the Great Lakes.Two industry groups, the American Petroleum Institute and GPA Midstream have petitioned the U.S. Court of Appeals to review the rule and, until that’s done, stop the rule from being enforced.Congress passed laws in 2016 and 2020 requiring the Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety Administration to amend its rules to help prevent catastrophic oil spills that damage shorelines and beaches, and lawmakers specifically named the Great Lakes as an area to be protected.The “Pipeline Safety: Unusually Sensitive Areas for the Great Lakes, Coastal Beaches, and Certain Coastal Waters” interim final rule went into effect in late February.“Unusually Sensitive Areas fall under stricter regulations as to how an operator has to maintain the integrity of the pipe, which would lower the possibility of a failure,” explained Bill Caram, executive director of the watchdog group Pipeline Safety Trust.Caram said the filing by the industry groups came as a surprise for many because it was clear that the Great Lakes should have been better protected all along.“I certainly didn't expect it. This [the previous rule] was an obvious shortfall of the definition. Senator [Gary] Peters and other lawmakers mandated the federal agency that that this loophole be fixed. PHMSA, the regulator, did that in a relatively straightforward manner, and so this definitely took us by surprise.”The rule specifically cited events involving Enbridge pipelines in its introduction of the rule. It stated the rule “will provide enhanced protections for hazardous liquid pipeline accidents similar to the 2010 Marshall, MI and the 2015 Refugio Beach, CA oil spills and ensure that events like the anchor strict that damaged Enbridge’s LineThe two industry groups requesting a stay and review of the rule argued that they had not been given adequate opportunity to comment. The petition to the court said the agency issued the rule without first publishing the proposal, providing the public a chance to comment and the agency a chance to amend the Unusually Sensitive Areas definition.This could delay implementation of the rule for months or longer, because if the petition is denied, then the two industry groups can file suit.“We certainly hope this is just a matter of months and the agency can sort it out. We certainly hope that the agency denies this request, and the rule stays in place,” said Caram.

U.S. Coast Guard called in for oil spill in Oswego Harbor - The U.S. Coast Guard says they were called in from Buffalo for an oil spill in the Oswego Harbor Wednesday. They are joined by the New York Department of Environmental Conservation to monitor an oil sheen that was seen near Breitbeck Park and Oswego Harbor Power LLC facility’s dock. Officials with the DEC say the source of the spoll is believed to be the Oswego Harbor Generating Station. The city has closed the lower trail of Breitbeck Park. Management from the Oswego Harbor Generating Station has closed off the affected area to prevent spread and has contracted agencies to help with the cleanup effort. “Clean water in Oswego Harbor and Lake Ontario are critically important to our residents and wildlife.” Oswego Mayor Billy Barlow said in response to the spill. “We will do our part to ensure that the oil spread is limited and that as much of the fuel that can be captured is.”

Residents near Mariner East say ‘restoration’ work looks like more construction to them - Residents near a section of the Mariner East natural gas liquids pipeline in Middletown, Delaware County, say construction is continuing, despite anannouncement by builder Energy Transfer that work has been finished. The company announced the pipeline’s completion to shareholders in its February quarterly earnings call as well as its March investor presentation. A spokesperson for Energy Transfer said this week that any additional work is not “construction.”“As we said on our most recent earnings call, construction of the final phase of the Mariner East project was completed in February and commissioning is in progress,” said Energy Transfer’s Lisa Coleman. “There are other activities underway, such as restoration and remediation.”Energy Transfer says it has completed the troubled 350-mile-long natural gas liquids pipeline, two years behind the initial schedule. But Edgmont resident Lora Snyder said she watched this past week as a section of pipe was removed and replaced by another — to her, that’s construction.“It’s an ongoing lack of transparency to the community and their own investors,” she said. “It’s not restoration.”Snyder has documented pipeline construction in Delaware and Chester counties with photos and drone footage. She said the stretch in question had issues from the time the pipe was laid, when drilling in 2017 led to “frac-outs.” Those occur when attempts to drill into the bedrock hit more porous geology instead and subsurface water and fluid used in the process rise to the surface and cause flooding.The pipeline project was delayed by multiple construction mishaps across its entire length, including this section. Energy Transfer then created a workaround to ship the natural gas liquids to Marcus Hook by repurposing decades-old gasoline pipelines. Mariner East opponents like Snyder dubbed this the “Frankenpipe.” She worries about safety issues, especially with regard to the older pipe.

Manchin: Biden could invoke Defense Production Act to complete natural gas pipeline- Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) on Thursday called on President Biden to invoke the Defense Production Act (DPA) if necessary to complete a U.S. natural gas pipeline following the ban on oil imports from Russia. The West Virginia Democrat — at a Thursday hearing of the Senate Energy Committee, which he chairs — called the 303-mile Mountain Valley Pipeline “the quickest thing that we can get, it’s more energy into the market that’s going to be needed. “I’ve been preaching to the heavens for a long time on this one. It can be done with the Defense Production Act,” Manchin added. “What we do know is that Russia has weaponized energy. They have used it as a geopolitical weapon. The thing I know about an adversary or a bully is if they have a weapon, you better have one that will match it or be better than theirs. And we do, we just haven’t used it,” Manchin said, in reference to American energy stores. Manchin was a leading proponent of the U.S. barring Russian oil imports after the nation invaded Ukraine, a step the Biden administration eventually took last week. Manchin, a pivotal vote who has frequently bucked his party’s legislative agenda, called the Biden administration’s opposition at the time “so wrong.” The Mountain Valley Pipeline began construction in 2014, and once completed is set to carry natural gas between southwestern Virginia and northwestern West Virginia. Manchin said at the hearing that the pipeline could be completed in four to six months and added that he has also introduced legislation to remove regulatory hurdles. Under the DPA, which Biden has previously used for matters relating to wildfires and the COVID-19 pandemic, the president can direct private companies to prioritize developing materials crucial to national defense interests. As gas prices spike, environmentalist groups and Democrats to Manchin’s left on climate issues have also called on Biden to invoke the DPA to deploy renewable energy. Press secretary Jen Psaki was asked at the Thursday White House press briefing whether use of the law is under consideration to increase oil production domestically, and she suggested the administration was not inclined to pay oil companies for “what they probably already have the capacity to do.”

 Dallas-based Chief Oil & Gas strikes $2.6 billion deal with Chesapeake Energy - Dallas billionaire and fracking pioneer Trevor Rees-Jones struck a massive deal with Chesapeake Energy Corp. on Tuesday, selling his privately held natural gas producer Chief Oil & Gas and associated assets. The nearly $2.6 billion cash-and-stock deal grows Chesapeake’s foothold in the Marcellus Shale of Pennsylvania, the largest gas play in the U.S. It also marks Chesapeake’s second multibillion-dollar acquisition of a North Texas firm. It paid $2.2 billion last year for rival gas driller Plano-based Vine Energy Inc. Rees-Jones’ Chief Oil & Gas had been exploring a sale amid a surge in energy prices that boosted its valuation, Reuters reported. Shale drillers have been under investor pressure to consolidate in order to gain scale, cut costs and boost production without investing in drilling new wells. Oklahoma City-based Chesapeake has been a buyer since emerging from bankruptcy a year ago and shedding $7.8 billion in debt. To help finance the Chief purchase, Chesapeake also agreed to sell its Powder River Basin assets in Wyoming to Continental Resources Inc. for about $450 million in cash. “Chesapeake is recasting itself as a smaller, geographically concentrated operator,” according to a Bloomberg Intelligence report after the Vine Energy acquisition. “The company can target the vast majority of capital in Appalachia and Haynesville, the two most prolific, lower-cost gas plays.” Rees-Jones’ Chief Oil & Gas, founded in 1994, was among the companies that made the horizontal drilling technology known as fracking an industry standard for extracting natural gas reserves from the Barnett Shale in North Texas. After selling most of those assets, Chief moved into the Marcellus Shale in Appalachia in 2007 and became one of the biggest producers there. Oklahoma City-based Chesapeake Energy is an active driller in shale plays such as the Marcellus in Pennsylvania and Ohio, the Haynesville in Louisiana and the Eagle Ford in South Texas. The deal is expected to immediately increase Chesapeake’s operating and free-cash flow, while growing its Marcellus gas production capacity by up to 200 million cubic feet a day. The transaction also will allow Chesapeake to increase its annual base dividend by 14% beginning in the second quarter of this year.

U.S. natgas slides over 3% on milder forecasts despite soaring global prices (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures slid over 3% on Monday on forecasts for less cold weather and lower heating demand next week than previously expected. That price decline came even though soaring global oil and gas prices kept demand for U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports strong as the Russia-Ukraine conflict stokes energy supply concerns, especially with the United States and Europe considering a ban on Russian energy imports. U.S. gas futures, however, remain shielded from record European prices because the United States, the world's biggest gas producer, has all the fuel it needs for domestic use and the country's ability to export more gas as liquefied natural gas (LNG) is limited by capacity constraints. The United States is already producing LNG near full capacity, so no matter how high global gas prices rise, the U.S. can't produce much more of the supercooled fuel. European futures rose as much as 60% over Friday's record close at one point on Monday, putting European prices about 21 times over U.S. futures. Since the start of the year, the U.S. gas market has mostly shrugged off what was happening in Europe, focusing more on domestic weather and supply and demand, with U.S. gas prices moving in the opposite direction of Europe more than half the time. But it has been hard for the U.S. market to ignore the massive gains in global energy prices in recent weeks. Since Russia invaded Ukraine on Feb. 24, European gas futures have spiked over 280% and were at the record high, while U.S. crude futures jumped as much as 42% to their highest since 2008. Front-month gas futures fell 18.3 cents, or 3.6%, to settle at $4.833 per million British thermal units. On Friday, the contract closed at its highest since Feb. 2. Data provider Refinitiv said average gas output in the U.S. Lower 48 states was on track to rise to 93.6 bcfd in March from 92.5 bcfd in February as more oil and gas wells return to service after freezing earlier in the year. That compares with a monthly record of 96.2 bcfd in December. With the coming of colder weather next week, Refinitiv projected average U.S. gas demand, including exports, would rise from 109.8 bcfd this week to 115.1 bcfd next week. The forecast for next week, however, was lower than Refinitiv's outlook on Friday. The amount of gas flowing to U.S. LNG export plants rose to 12.60 bcfd so far in March from 12.43 bcfd in February and a record 12.44 bcfd in January. The United States has the capacity to turn about 12.5 bcfd of gas into LNG. The rest of the fuel flowing to the facilities is used to operate the plants.

With Spring Weather Approaching, April Natural Gas Futures Extend Losses - Natural gas futures slipped lower for a second consecutive day, as traders continued to focus on bearish shifts in domestic weather outlooks even as war raged in Ukraine and Western sanctions against Russia threatened to send global commodity prices to record highs. The April Nymex natural gas futures contract settled at $4.527/MMBtu, down 30.6 cents day/day. May shed 29.5 cents to $4.563. NGI’s Spot Gas National Avg. fell 17.0 cents to $4.520. NatGasWeather attributed declines to “an increasingly bearish setup” in the weather outlook for next week. Both the American and European weather models extended warmer trends Tuesday, according to the firm. “While the coming six days are rather bullish with stronger-than-normal national demand, the March 15-22 U.S. pattern has trended increasingly bearish as above-normal temperatures over the southern U.S. expand to cover most of the northern U.S.,” NatGasWeather said. This would drop national demand to “the lightest levels in months,” and the data as of Tuesday suggested the milder pattern could stick around through late March. Still, even as bears appeared to have “wrestled momentum away from bulls,” Russia’s invasion of Ukraine remains a source of uncertainty, destabilizing markets, the firm said. This “could again be a reason if U.S. gas prices rally” in coming days, NatGasWeather said. Production dipped to 93 Bcf on Tuesday from nearly 95 Bcf a day earlier, according to Bloomberg’s estimate. Exports of U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) have hovered around 13.5 Bcf most of March – near record levels amid robust demand from Europe, NGI estimates show. And, of course, the Russia-Ukraine war looms large. Rystad Energy analyst Kaushal Ramesh noted that European gas prices reached an all-time intraday high on Monday in anticipation of the ban and amid intensifying worries that the war in Ukraine could disrupt or even cut off gas flow from Russia to Europe. “The West has emphasized that all options for sanctions remain on the table” and, as such, “upside risk” to oil and gas prices remains elevated, Ramesh said. In a worst-case scenario, Barclays analyst Amarpreet Singh said Brent prices could surge beyond $200. EBW Analytics Group noted that Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak warned of $300 oil, “if not more,” should the West, as a whole, embargo Russian oil exports. Novak also threatened to turn off natural gas to Europe in retaliation.

US natural gas storage fields post another above-average draw as season nears end US natural gas inventories tumbled well above average levels once again as the heating season enters its final weeks before summer injections begin. Storage fields withdrew 124 Bcf for the week ended March 4, according to data released by the US Energy Information Administration on March 10. Working gas inventories decreased to 1.519 Tcf. US storage volumes now stand 281 Bcf, or 15.6%, less than the year-ago level of 1.8 Tcf and 290 Bcf, or 16%, less than the five-year average of 1.809 Tcf. The withdrawal was more than the 120 Bcf draw expected by an S&P Global Commodity Insights' survey of analysts. It also outpaced the five-year average withdrawal of 89 Bcf and more than doubled last year's 59 Bcf pull in the corresponding week. The Midwest region accounted for 40 Bcf of the weekly pulled, as it is now the most undersupplied of all five EIA storage regions relative to the five-year average. Despite the shortage, the Midwest is expected to receive higher imports from Canada this summer, which should allow it to inject plenty of gas this summer. S&P Global Commodity Insights expects imports into the Midwest will be strong at 3.9 Bcf/d this summer. Western Canada storage inventories sit at 210 Bcf, which is 50 Bcf below the five-year low for this time. However, strong production is expected to drive constraints on NGTL pipeline this summer, and limit injections. Even during periods when there are no constraints, the AECO winter 22-23 strip is likely too weak to incentivize strong injections. Technically, the spread between AECO's summer 22 and winter 22-23 strip is 37 cents/MMBtu, which should be enough to rapidly fill storage. However, AECO's summer 22 strip is trading 90 cents to $1 behind Chicago, implying the market expects constraints on the NGTL system. The NYMEX Henry Hub April contract added 10 cents to $4.63/MMBtu on March 10, down 7 cents from one week prior. The summer strip, April through October, climbed 11 cents to average $4.73/MMBtu, down 4 cents week over week. A forecast by S&P Global calls for a 49 Bcf draw for the week ending March 11, which would measure 16 Bcf less than the average draw. The week after points to a drawdown in line with the average. The last net withdrawal of the season typically occurs for the week ending March 25. US storage forecast for the end of March was lowered 200 Bcf from last month's forecast to 1.46 Tcf following multiple 200-plus Bcf withdrawals in 2022, according to S&P Global. The resumed uptrend in US production will allow inventories to inject at a stronger pace this summer, building to an expected 3.65 Tcf, 100 Bcf lower than the previous forecast but in-line with five-year averages. US production is forecast to rebound to 95 Bcf/d in March with the balance of 2022 averaging 96.1 Bcf/d following low January and February levels where well freeze-offs dropped output to average below 93 Bcf/d.

U.S. natgas futures up 2% on lower output, record LNG exports (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures gained around 2% on Thursday as near-record liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports caused utilities to pull more of the fuel from storage last week than expected and on forecasts for more heating demand over the next two weeks. U.S. LNG exports have been strong in recent months because global oil and gas prices have traded at or near record highs - especially since Russia's invasion of Ukraine on Feb. 24 stoked new energy supply concerns. Russia is the world's second-biggest producer of gas behind the United States. After soaring to an all-time high over $106 per million British thermal units (mmBtu) on Monday, European gas futures collapsed 30% on Wednesday and were down about 10% on Thursday as gas supplies stabilized with continued high flows from Russia and massive LNG imports from around the world. That supply stabilization prompted traders to take profits. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said utilities pulled 124 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas from storage during the week ended March 4. That was higher than the 117-bcf withdrawal analysts forecast in a Reuters poll and compares with a decline of 59 bcf in the same week last year and a five-year (2017-2021) average decline of 89 bcf. U.S. front-month gas futures rose 10.5 cents, or 2.3%, to settle at $4.631 per mmBtu. U.S. gas futures remain shielded from record European prices because the United States has all the fuel it needs for domestic use and the country's ability to export more LNG is limited by capacity constraints. The United States is already producing LNG near full capacity, so no matter how high global gas prices rise, it would not be able to produce much more of the supercooled fuel any time soon. Since U.S. LNG exports were already near maximum capacity, some analysts said soaring global energy prices would actually cause American gas prices to decline as U.S. drillers seek more oil supplies. That would boost the amount of associated gas that comes out of the ground with that oil. Data provider Refinitiv said average gas output in the U.S. Lower 48 states was on track to rise to 93.4 bcfd in March from 92.5 bcfd in February as more oil and gas wells return to service after freezing earlier in the year. That compares with a monthly record of 96.2 bcfd in December. On a daily basis, gas output was on track to drop to 92.3 bcfd on Thursday as cold weather in some producing basins reduces output. Refinitiv projected average U.S. gas demand, including exports, would hold around 112.0 bcfd this week and next. Those forecast were higher than Refinitiv's outlook on Wednesday. The amount of gas flowing to U.S. LNG export plants rose to 12.58 bcfd so far in March from 12.43 bcfd in February and a record 12.44 bcfd in January.

Natural Gas Futures Advance Amid U.S. Production Drop, Global Supply Uncertainty Natural gas futures forged higher on Friday as production dropped amid blasts of late-winter cold, marking a second consecutive day of gains but not enough to offset losses earlier in the week. The April Nymex gas futures contract gained 9.4 cents day/day and settled at $4.725/MMBtu. May rose 9.7 cents to $4.766. The prompt month had gained 10.5 cents Thursday but finished the week down 6% after forecasts for warm weather later in March fueled losses to start the week. NGI’s Spot Gas National Avg. gained 35.5 cents on Friday to $4.805. Production dipped below 92 Bcf, according to Bloomberg’s Friday estimate, down from around 93 Bcf much of the week – and down from near 95 Bcf the previous week. A rash of freezing air in the Rocky Mountains, Midcontinent and into Texas forced freeze-offs that cut into output just as near-term heating demand escalated ahead of the weekend. Forecast data “held strong national demand through the weekend as a frosty weather system with rain, snow and chilly temperatures sweeps across the interior U.S. and into the East,” NatGasWeather said Friday. The firm said markets also continued to favorably digest a bullish government inventory report that showed supplies at an increased deficit to historic norms. U.S. utilities withdrew 124 Bcf natural gas from storage during the week ended March 4, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported on Thursday. The latest decrease lowered inventories to 1,519 Bcf, leaving stocks well below the five-year average of 1,809 Bcf. Analysts at Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. (TPH) viewed the market as undersupplied during the EIA report week, estimating a 3.4 Bcf/d weather-adjusted shortfall, versus an undersupply of 0.4 Bcf/d in the prior week. TPH noted modest supply this week as well, as output from both the Midcontinent and the Permian Basin “trended lower through the week.” [Ripple Effect: How Russia’s war on Ukraine has amplified the global conversation about energy independence and shifting natural gas fundamentals, while boosting prospects for LNG export and project development in Mexico. Listen to NGI’s Hub & Flow podcast now.] Exports and Global Tumult Steady calls for American exports of liquefied natural gas (LNG) proved another catalyst throughout the week for futures. U.S. feed gas volumes topped 13 Bcf for the 10th consecutive day on Friday, according to NGI estimates, keeping LNG facilities working near capacity to meet demand. With the war in Ukraine entrenched – and the reliability of Russian gas flows to Europe in question – the LNG demand trend is expected to endure. Europe counts on Russia for a third or more of its natural gas. Flows from Russia had held up through the 16th day of the Kremlin’s invasion of Ukraine on Friday. But the European Commission set a target to slash Russian gas imports by two-thirds before the close of 2022.

 Russia crisis may drive a U.S. natural gas surge - The tragedy of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine presents a business opportunity for the U.S. natural gas industry if Europe turns sharply away from Russian gas. Prior to the war, Europe got more than a third of its gas from Russia. If Europeans wean themselves from that, American gas producers and exporters of liquefied natural gas say they can help fill the gap in the years ahead. “There’s a huge opportunity to counter Russian aggression,” said Anne Bradbury, CEO of the American Exploration & Production Council (AXPC), which represents large independent oil and gas producers. “It’s important that we’re able to step up and support our allies.” The issue is at the forefront after the European Commission unveiled proposals yesterday to reduce its dependence on Russian energy, including increasing LNG imports from countries other than Russia and increasing use of renewable energy. President Biden’s ban on U.S. imports of Russian oil also includes gas imports from the country, although the U.S. doesn’t currently import any Russian gas. In a joint letter to Biden last month, AXPC and other industry groups including LNG Allies compared supplying more gas to some of the biggest U.S. foreign policy successes of the postwar era — the Berlin Airlift and the Marshall Plan. But the LNG developers don’t need much help from the Biden administration to boost exports in the next few years. With 14 LNG projects federally approved but not yet built, the U.S. industry could roughly double its exports without need for major regulatory approval. While they don’t need approval from the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission or Department of Energy, the projects do need support from investors. Those 14 projects are awaiting a “final investment decision” from the companies developing them. By extension that means the fate of U.S. gas exports largely hinges on utilities and other gas providers in Europe — if they won’t commit to long-term agreements to buy the fuel, the terminals won’t get built in the United States. “That’s got to happen to get Europe the gas it’s going to need,” said Charlie Riedl, executive director of the Center for Liquefied Natural Gas (CLNG), which represents major LNG companies. Germany, which until the invasion had been planning on importing more gas from Russia, has signaled an increased interest in importing gas by sea. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz announced plans on Feb. 27 to quickly build two import terminals to reduce its dependence on Russia. According to Rystad Energy, Germany has set aside $1.7 billion to buy LNG from countries other than Russia. It hasn’t said where all the LNG will come from. In the short term, the United States can’t send much more gas to Europe. Its imports nearly doubled from November to January, and U.S. terminals are shipping just about all the gas they have. According to CLNG, Europe in February received almost 70 percent of all LNG exported from the United States. “U.S. exports are going at full steam,” .

EQT's Chief Wants U.S. LNG Unleashed for 'Largest Green Initiative on Planet' - The CEO of EQT Corp., the largest natural gas producer in the United States, on Wednesday said leveraging the nation’s natural gas exports could aid foreign allies and reduce global emissions. On the third day of CERAWeek by S&P Global as natural gas took center stage, CEO Toby Z. Rice made the case to use domestic liquefied natural gas (LNG) supply to cut coal use and address global climate change.“Unleashing U.S. LNG to target international coal consumption is not only proven, the opportunity represents the largest green initiative on the planet,” Rice said in unveiling the plan. “By providing a solution to the principal driver of international emissions – emissions that must be addressed if we are to succeed in our climate efforts – we have the ability to extend our influence in addressing climate change beyond our borders.”Rice in February – and also late last year – cautioned against limiting U.S. LNG exports. He said limiting exports would raise prices in the Northeast and harm the environment. EQT produced 527 Bcfe in the fourth quarter across its Marcellus and Utica shale assets in Ohio, Pennsylvania and West Virginia. That’s up from 401 Bcfe in 4Q2020. Full year production was 1.9 Tcfe, up from 1.5 Tcfe in 2020. The United States has the “largest economically developable resource in the world,” the EQT chief said Wednesday. He noted that Iran, Qatar, the United States and Russia “collectively have approximately two-thirds of the world’s natural gas resources. And the substantial majority of the world is reliant on coal. “We need to provide solutions, and to do that, we need to prioritize LNG and pipeline infrastructure to allow us to connect our resources to end-users.”Domestic LNG supply could be one of the “world’s largest weapons to combat climate change,” Rice said. “Unleashing it would enable the United States to replace up to one-third of international coal in the next 20 years. “But equally important, as the recent invasion of Ukraine by Russia highlights, it would allow us to provide energy security to our allies while weakening the energy dominance of our adversaries.”

Tourmaline Sets Sights on Taking Montney Natural Gas to Cheniere LNG Terminal - The No. 1 natural gas producer in Canada, Tourmaline Oil Corp., said it is diversifying its marketing portfolio to fetch the “best pricing possible” for all of its hydrocarbon streams, including an agreement with Cheniere Energy Inc. to participate in the Gulf Coast liquefied natural gas (LNG) export market. AECO The Calgary-based producer, whose focus is in the gassy Montney Shale, Alberta Deep Basin and in Peace River, recently issued its fourth quarter and full-year 2021 results. Last year, the exploration and production (E&P) company established a Gulf Coast LNG long-term netback supply agreement with Cheniere, the leading U.S. gas exporter. The deal is for delivery to Cheniere’s Corpus Christi export terminal in South Texas. “In 2023, Tourmaline will become the first Canadian E&P company participating in the LNG business,” The deal, they said, would provide “a material increase to anticipated 2023 cash flow” based on mid-February JKM strip pricing. In addition, by November, Tourmaline plans to increase gas volumes exported to the U.S. West Coast to 445 MMcf/d from 345 MMcf/d, “with approximately 67% of the gas accessing the premium-priced PG&E California market.” At that time, “western U.S. market exposure will increase by an incremental 50 MMcf/d.” Last year a trio of Montney acquisitions, combined with improved commodity prices, helped to fuel a three-fold jump in profits for Tourmaline. The independent, whose production is 80% weighted to natural gas, centers most of its development in the Western Canadian Sedimentary Basin’s Montney, Alberta Deep Basin and in the Peace River area. In late 2021 and to date this year, Tourmaline said it has spent $63.8 million to beef up its combined gas and liquids production to 2,400 boe/d. Included are 238 drilling locations on 295 square miles of resource rights. Average natural gas production in 2021 grew to 2 Bcf/d from 1.47 Bcf/d in 2020. Oil output rose year/year to 10,145 b/d from 8,308 b/d. Natural gas liquids (NGL) production rose to 59,602 b/d from 36,445 in 2020. Tourmaline’s natural gas volumes fetched an average of $3.94/Mcf 2021, up from $2.68 in 2020. Realized oil prices improved to $67.77/bbl from $47.05. NGL prices jumped to $32.85/bbl from $14.80. .

Baker Hughes Scores Work On Plaquemines LNG Project -Baker Hughes has won a contract from Venture Global LNG to provide an LNG system for Phase 1 of the Plaquemines LNG project in Louisiana. Energy technology company and services provider Baker Hughes has been awarded a contract and a notice to proceed by Venture Global LNG to provide a liquefied natural gas (LNG) system for the first phase of the Plaquemines LNG project in Louisiana. The liquefaction train system supplied by Baker Hughes is modularized, helping to lower construction and operational costs with a plug-and-play approach that enables faster installation. Baker Hughes manufactures, tests, and transports the pre-assembled and fully integrated modular turbomachinery units for Venture Global LNG at its manufacturing and assembly facilities in Italy. As part of the scope, Baker Hughes will also provide field services to assist in the commissioning of the supplied equipment. According to the company, the order builds on an award in the fourth quarter of 2021 for Baker Hughes to provide power generation and electrical distribution equipment for the comprehensive power island system of Venture Global LNG’s Plaquemines LNG project. When fully developed, Plaquemines LNG will have an export capacity of up to 20 million metric tonnes per year. The Plaquemines LNG project order follows a similar contract for a comprehensive LNG technology solution supplied by Baker Hughes for Venture Global’s Calcasieu Pass LNG terminal in 2019, also in Louisiana. In 2021, Baker Hughes completed delivery of the ninth and final block for Calcasieu Pass with all shipments finalized ahead of schedule. Calcasieu Pass holds the global record for the fastest construction of a large-scale greenfield LNG project, moving from FID to first LNG in 29 months.

BKV Working on Certified Natural Gas Label; Seneca E&P Operations Gain Designation -- Thailand’s Banpu Kalnin Ventures Corp. (BKV) and BKV-BPP Power LLC are working to certify natural gas produced in the Lower 48 initially to fuel a power plant in Central Texas. Denver-based exploration and production (E&P) company BKV purchased the Temple I power plant north of Austin for $430 million in November with Banpu Power US Corp. The facility, which powers 750,000 homes across Central Texas, is equipped with emissions-control technology. BKV-BPP Power, a joint venture between Banpu Power plc and Banpu Group, said Project Canary is overseeing the certification process to designate production as responsibly sourced gas, or RSG. Further emissions-monitoring technology for the Temple facility also is being considered as the partnership works to source RSG for the power plant. The E&P also noted it plans to further evaluate midstream infrastructure associated with delivering natural gas to Temple I in the future. Natural gas certified from the upstream operations that is not consumed at Temple I is to be marketed as RSG, BKV said. Project Canary’s TrustWell certification is to be deployed to nearly 100 BKV pad locations in the Barnett and Marcellus shales. BKV said it already has continuous monitoring units at pad location across its Marcellus operations and would continue to add units through 2023. BKV was formed in 2015 by Thailand’s Banpu PCL, a diversified energy company. In 2019, BKV purchased Devon Energy Corp.’s Barnett Shale assets for $770 million. Through the deal, BKV acquired 320,000 gross acres and 4,200 producing wells. BKV recently reported gross natural gas production of 550,000 Mcf/d from the Barnett assets. In Pennsylvania, BKV said it holds 50,000 gross acres across the Marcellus, with 138 wells in operation and 150,000 Mcf/d gross production. Meanwhile, Seneca Resources Co. LLC announced it had expanded its RSG certification to 300 MMcf/d of the company’s Appalachian natural gas production with Project Canary. In September 2021, the E&P arm of National Fuel Gas Co. entered Project Canary’s assessment process for 121 of its Pennsylvania wells, about 30% of Seneca’s total production in the region. The E&P said it had also deployed Canary X continuous emissions monitoring units on select pads in addition to its existing leak detection monitors. Project Canary’s certification expands upon Seneca’s prior RSG certification from Equitable Origin’s (EO) Standard for Responsible Energy Development. In mid-January, EO certified 100% of Seneca’s Appalachian natural gas production, representing more than 1 Bcf/d. Seneca explores for natural gas and oil in the Marcellus and Utica shales, as well as in California.

Crescent Point to Hold Spending in Check Despite Stronger Oil, Natural Gas Prices - After regaining financial strength thanks to improved oil and gas prices for growing production, Calgary-based Crescent Point Energy Corp. plans to increase stockholder loyalty rewards instead of accelerating field activity. Crescent Point, which reports in Canadian dollars (C$1.00/US 79 cents), expects spending in 2022 will stay in a range of $825-$900 million set last November, the company said. “This budget remains unchanged, despite a stronger commodity price environment,” said Crescent Point. “Management remains disciplined and focused on generating significant excess cash flow to create shareholder value.” A planned first-half 2022 share buy-back will increase by 50% to $150 million, said the firm. The investor loyalty rewards began with a $60 million Crescent Point purchase of its own stock in December. The firm also repaid $815 million of corporate debt. Annual average daily Crescent Point production rose to 114.4 MMcf/d of natural gas in 2021 from 67.4 MMcf/d in 2020 and to 17,769 b/d of natural gas liquids (NGL) from 14,542 b/d. Oil hovered at 95,839 b/d, slipping slightly from 95,859 b/d. The annual average price received for Crescent Point gas improved to $4.51/Mcf in 2021 from $3.02/Mcf in 2020. NGLs more than doubled to $42.33/bbl from $17.18/bbl. Oil jumped to $78.43/bbl from $43.50/bbl.

Oxy’s Hollub says More Capital Needed to Sustain Production in 2022 - Occidental Petroleum Corp. will need to spend more capital in 2022 to maintain oil production at 2021 levels, CEO Vicki Hollub said. Houston-based Oxy is one of the largest U.S. oil producers, with a leading footprint in the Permian and Denver-Julesburg basins, as well as in the Gulf of Mexico (GOM). Internationally, Oxy has operations in the Middle East and North Africa. Oxy expects oil and gas capital expenditures (capex) to total $3.2-3.4 billion in 2022, up from $2.41 billion in 2021. The firm is allocating $1.7-1.9 billion of the capex total to the Permian, up from $1.09 billion last year. Another $500 million is earmarked for the GOM, along with $500 for the international segment and $400 million for the “Rockies and other” segment in the Lower 48. Oxy is targeting flattish oil and gas production, however, at a range of 1.14-1.17 million boe/d in 2022 with a roughly 54.5% oil cut. Comparable production in 2021 was 1.17 million boe.“Our 2022 capital plan invests in cash flow longevity while building on the capital intensity leadership we demonstrated in 2021,” Hollub said. “We have sized our capital plan to sustain production in 2022 at 1.155 million Boe per day while investing in high-return projects that will provide cash flow stability throughout the cycle.” Hollub added, “We have also incorporated an expectation for inflation and a capital range to reflect the potential for fluctuations in our third-party-operated assets and our low-carbon opportunities during the year.” Oxy expects sustaining capital, which it defines as the capital required to sustain production in a $40/bbl West Texas Intermediate oil price environment over a multiyear period, to increase to about $3.2 billion in 2022 from $2.9 billion in 2021. The expected increase is driven by Oxy’s reduced inventory of drilled but uncompleted wells, along with additional investment in its GOM and enhanced oil recovery assets “to optimize the long-term productivity of our reservoirs and facilities,” Hollub said.She added, “If the macro environment requires spending below our multi-year sustaining capital, we have the ability to reduce it further and hold production flat for shorter periods of time, as we’ve demonstrated.” In the Permian, Oxy is developing what it touts as the world’s largest direct air capture (DAC) facility to remove carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from the atmosphere. Oxy is partnering on the facility with developer 1PointFive Inc. through its Oxy Low Carbon Ventures unit. Hollub said Oxy is “one of only a few oil and gas companies with net-zero goals that are aligned with the Paris Agreement’s 1.5-degree Celsius pathway.”

Phillips 66 says refiners will need to find a way to mitigate carbon emissions - (Reuters) - Oil refiners will have to develop ways to mitigate carbon emissions in the future, the chief operating officer of U.S. refiner Phillips 66 said at an energy conference on Tuesday. In remarks at the CERAWeek energy conference, Mark Lashier said renewable fuels will not replace diesel and jet fuels in the transportation fuel mix, requiring the industry to come up with a means of cutting carbon dioxide emissions. “You’re not going to able replace all the diesel and all the jet fuel the world uses with renewables,” Lashier said. Total renewable feedstocks are between 2.5 million and 3 million barrels per day (bpd) available to refiners with plants to process them, he said. Phillips 66 is converting a crude oil refinery in Rodeo, California into a renewable fuels refinery that will produce about 50,000 bpd of fuels from sources like animal fats and used cooking oils. The conversion will cost $850 million.

United Steelworkers union calls on oil companies to end Russian crude imports - United Steelworkers (USW) International President Tom Conway said the union, which is the largest labor union operating U.S.-based oil refineries, terminals and pipelines, calls on their government and employers to cut off all Russian imports of crude oil that would be processed in our domestic refineries. “We must act now to begin replacing Russian oil in our systems and plan for long-term alternatives for our refineries, including increasing efforts to secure domestic crude oil and importing oil from other global sources,” Conway said. “Our union will begin to oppose with every lever available to us the processing of this Russian-sourced oil, and we call upon our unionized colleagues in other oil-processing nations to also help cut off the income stream Vladimir Putin generates through exporting Russian crude.” The union recently concluded labor contract negotiations through its National Oil Bargaining Program (NOBP) with the domestic oil industry covering the vast majority of U.S.-based oil refining. The union watched, over the past year, the growing profits of its employers, and it constantly monitors the prices of oil markets. “We negotiated a responsible contract that does not add to price gouging or inflationary pressures,” Conway said. “We now urge our employers to avoid the impulse to use this crisis to increase gasoline and diesel prices at the pump, adding to current price spikes.” USW acknowledge some employers have already announced that they will cease purchases of Russian crude going forward, but also note that those companies who are the largest purchasers of Russian oil have yet to take such steps. “Our union does not seek a confrontation with those employers, but we call on them to act immediately to avoid provoking unnecessary disputes over the issue of processing Russian-sourced oil,” Conway said. “The USW stands in unity and solidarity with the people of Ukraine and our colleagues in the Ukrainian labor movement. It is incumbent upon our government and employers to do the same and do everything in their power to assist the Ukrainian people in their hour of need.”

What do US refineries import from Russia? And what if they stop? - Russia’s unprovoked war against Ukraine has posed a dilemma regarding Russian crude oil. Russia is the world’s second-largest oil exporter after Saudi Arabia, sending out an average of more than 7 MMb/d last year, or about 7% of global demand. And the world needs more oil — demand for crude has rebounded from its COVID lows, and OPEC+ (of which Russia is part) and U.S. producers alike have been ramping up production only gradually. So the dilemma is, does the U.S. continue importing Russian crude oil to help hold down gasoline, diesel, and heating oil prices, or does the U.S. ban such imports as an additional rebuke to Russia’s actions in Ukraine? In today’s RBN blog, we look at which refiners and refineries have been importing Russian crude oil, heavy gasoil, and resid and what would happen if the U.S. said “Nyet” to Russian imports.The debate over Russian imports of crude oil and other refinery feedstocks is reaching a fever pitch. The Biden administration, which with U.S. allies has implemented sanctions against Russian banks, Putin, and his billionaire friends, has been reluctant so far to push for a ban on Russian crude oil exports, citing concern about the impact such an action would have on U.S. refined products prices. That stand may not last long. Last week, Senator Joe Manchin, the West Virginia Democrat and chairman of the Senate Energy & Natural Resources Committee, and Senator Lisa Murkowski, the Alaska Republican and ranking member on the same panel, introduced the proposed Ban Russian Energy Imports Act. The measure quickly garnered support from both sides of the aisle, including Speaker Nancy Pelosi, the California Democrat, and Senator Lindsay Graham, the South Carolina Republican, suggesting the kind of bipartisan consensus usually reserved for bills praising Thanksgiving, baseball, or international icons like Nelson Mandela and Mother Theresa.Whether imports of Russian crude oil are banned — or individual companies decide on their own they just don’t want the stuff — we think a look at just how much the U.S. depends on Russia for crude oil and refined products merits a closer look.For many years, Russia has been a key supplier of crude oil, unfinished intermediate products, and refined products to the world. In 2021, Russia exported a little more than 7 MMb/d of these products, with about 60% going to Europe, 20% to China, and 17% to the OECD Americas. Of that 17%, the U.S. imported 685 Mb/d of crude oil and refined products from Russia last year (multicolored bar to far right in Figure 1), including 199 Mb/d of crude oil (red segment in bar to far right) and 356 Mb/d of “other products” (light-green bar segment) such as topped crude oil, heavy vacuum gasoil (HGO), and fuel oil (see Complex Refining 101). Russia accounted for about 8% of total U.S. crude oil, intermediates, and refined product imports.Most Russian petroleum imports (~55%) come into ports along the U.S. Gulf Coast (PADD 3), where more than half of U.S. refining capacity is located. About 25% of Russian imports arrive at East Coast (PADD 1) docks, with the West Coast (PADD 5) making up the ~20% balance.Assuming, as we are now seeing signs of, there is an imminent shift away from Russian imports (whether by a U.S. ban or decisions by individual companies), the companies with the greatest exposure include Valero Energy, with 2021 Russian feedstock imports averaging 220 Mb/d (blue slice of pie chart to left in Figure 2); ExxonMobil, with 87 Mb/d (red slice); Marathon Petroleum, with 48 Mb/d (green slice); and PBF Energy, with 45 Mb/d (purple slice). As for the specific refineries receiving Russian feedstocks — either HGO and resid (red bar segments in graph to right) or crude oil (blue bar segments) — the biggest consumers have been Valero St. Charles, ExxonMobil Baytown, Valero Port Arthur, and Valero Corpus Christi (tallest bars in graph to right). These four sites accounted for more than 40% of all Russian feedstock imports in 2021. Another 12 U.S. refineries (smaller bars in graph to right) also received HGO and/or resid (red bar segments), Russian crude oil (blue bar segments), or some of each at quantities greater than 10 Mb/d.

Biden says U.S. will ban Russian oil imports in response to Putin's invasion of Ukraine - President Joe Biden on Tuesday announced that the U.S. will ban imports of Russian oil, a major escalation in the international response to Moscow's invasion of Ukraine. The move came as Western-allied nations work to sever Moscow from the global economy to punish Russian President Vladimir Putin for his unprovoked aggression. "Today I am announcing the United States is targeting the main artery of Russia's economy. We're banning all imports of Russian oil and gas and energy," Biden said at the White House. "That means Russian oil will no longer be acceptable at U.S. ports and the American people will deal another powerful blow to Putin's war machine." "This is a step we're taking to inflict further pain on Putin," Biden said. The United Kingdom announced its own restrictions on buying Russian oil imports just before Biden spoke, saying it will phase out the country's imports by the end of the year. The European Union earlier Tuesday morning unveiled a plan to wean itself off of Russian fossil fuels. "We simply cannot rely on a supplier who explicitly threatens us," European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said in a press release announcing the plan. The U.S. imported about 672,000 barrels a day from Russia in 2021, according to figures from the Energy Information Administration. That amount comprises roughly 8% of the total U.S. imports of oil and refined products. Most of the country's crude oil and petroleum imports come from Canada, Mexico and Saudi Arabia, making the U.S. far less dependent on Russian oil than many of its European partners. The news of the ban, confirmed to CNBC by two people familiar with the matter prior to Biden's speech, sent oil markets soaring Tuesday morning. The price on West Texas Intermediate crude futures, contracts for April oil deliveries, hit $129.44 a barrel. That level is just below a recent high of $130.50 a barrel hit on March 7, which at the time was the highest price on oil futures since 2008. Putin's actions have provoked an unprecedented international reaction, as dozens of countries slap crippling sanctions on the Kremlin, its ultra-rich oligarchs and even Putin himself. Russia's currency has plummeted in value and its stock market has closed, while a growing list of companies have pulled their business out of the country. U.S. gas prices touched all-time highs following news of the ban on Russian oil imports. The national average for a gallon of regular gas rose to a record $4.173 on Tuesday, according to AAA. The prior record was $4.114 from July 2008, not adjusted for inflation.

GOP senator outlines proposal for 'Energy Operation Warp Speed' -Sen. Bill Cassidy on Wednesday unveiled an energy policy proposal he equated to the Trump administration’s “Operation Warp Speed” vaccine development program to address soaring energy prices. The Louisiana Republican’s proposal included streamlining the permitting process for energy development at agencies such as the Environmental Protection Agency, similar to the regulatory streamlining put in place to rapidly develop the COVID-19 vaccine over 2020. It would also incorporate a streamlined process for advanced nuclear permits and finalize a 5-year plan for future oil and natural gas development. Cassidy also proposed to eliminate regulatory barriers for technology that reduces emissions and create a strict timeline for feedback and approval of permits and handling of complaints. Responding to the fact that less than 10 percent of U.S. oil drilling is on federal lands, Cassidy replied saying “energy is very susceptible to margins. So a little bit of extra margin drives down cost pretty quickly, and a little bit of a short margin." "So when they say 'oh, it's just a little bit on federal lands,' that's the margin that makes the difference,” he added, referring to the Biden administration. Cassidy told reporters that he “absolutely” saw a place for renewable energy in the solution but pointed out that such technology is not ready for full-scale rapid deployment. “We're seeking common ground with those who are concerned about climate, absolutely. We've also spoken to Europeans that have seen a large-scale rapid deployment of solar energy on the African North Shore, that that could free up natural gas. They're currently using for domestic use in kind of antiquated natural gas plants. And you could ship that by pipeline to Europe,” he said. Cassidy also presented the proposal outline as beneficial with regard to emissions, saying it would remove regulatory obstacles to renewable development and speed up the permitting process for installing emissions-lowering technology.

U.S. crude oil and fuel stockpiles fall last week; SPR at 2002 low - U.S. oil stockpiles fell across the board last week, the Energy Information Administration said on Wednesday, at the same time the energy market contends with worries of globally tight supply after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Crude inventories fell by 1.9 million barrels in the week to March 4 to 411.6 million barrels, compared with analysts’ expectations in a Reuters poll for a 657,000-barrel drop. Crude stocks at the Cushing, Oklahoma, delivery hub fell by 585,000 barrels in the week to their lowest since August 2018, EIA said. U.S. crude stocks in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve fell to 577.5 million barrels, the lowest since July 2002. Last week, U.S. President Joe Biden authorized an initial release of 30 million barrels of oil from the SPR amid the ongoing conflict involving Russia, a top oil exporter. In fuel inventories, distillate stockpiles, which include diesel and heating oil, fell by 5.2 million barrels in the week to 113.9 million barrels, their lowest since November 2014. Analysts had expected a 1.9 million-barrel drop. Distillate stockpiles in the East Coast and the Gulf Coast regions fell to their lowest since June 2018 and June 2019, respectively. U.S. gasoline stocks fell by 1.4 million barrels to 244.6 million barrels, the EIA said, compared with analysts’ expectations for a 2.1 million-barrel drop. “Gas and distillate inventories dropped as implied demand rose for both, while distillate exports rose strongly – helped by a rise bound for Europe, which could be to replace the impending loss of Russian supplies amid self-sanctioning,” said Matt Smith, lead oil analyst Kpler. Refinery crude runs fell by 21,000 barrels per day in the last week, while utilization rates rose by 1.6 percentage points, EIA data showed. Net U.S. crude imports rose by 1.93 million bpd per day, EIA said.

U.S. Energy Secretary Granholm calls on oil and gas companies to raise output - With oil prices recently hitting the highest level since 2008, Secretary of Energy Jennifer Granholm took to the stage in front of a room full of energy executives with a simple message: raise output. "We are in an emergency, and we have to responsibly increase short-term supply where we can right now to stabilize the market and minimize harm to American families," she said Wednesday at CERAWeek by S&P Global. The U.S. has tapped the Strategic Petroleum Reserve twice in recent months — last week and in November — and Granholm said a third release is not off the table. But she also called on the private sector — and Wall Street — to play a role at this pivotal time. "I hope your investors are saying these words to you as well: In this moment of crisis, we need more supply ... right now, we need oil and gas production to rise to meet current demand," she said. s Oil and gas companies have fundamentally shifted their business models in the wake of the pandemic. While once it was about growth at all costs, capital discipline now reigns supreme. Companies are paying down debt, announcing share buybacks and hiking dividends. Along with those measures, they've pledged to keep supply in check. In her appeal to an industry that has felt alienated by the administration, Granholm said the Department of Energy and the Biden administration broadly are ready to work with producers. She said that increasing output now doesn't detract from the White House's longer-term clean energy goals, declaring "we can walk and chew gum at the same time" in reference to pursuing both fossil fuel and renewable energy pathways. The oil and gas industry has said the White House is holding back drilling with unfriendly policies. Officials have dismissed these claims. The industry also is struggling with the same supply chain issues that are reverberating throughout the broad economy. Occidental Petroleum CEO Vicki Hollub said Tuesday that it's difficult to find raw materials like sand and that the labor market remains tight. Hollub also stressed that output can't just be raised on a dime. While the industry had prepared for supply chain bottlenecks, it had not prepared for a sudden call to raise production, she said.

PolitiFact | Fact-checking Biden’s claim that there are 9,000 unused oil drilling permits President Joe Biden said that his policies have not made the U.S. less equipped to withstand the impact of the ban on Russian energy imports. He contended that the onus is on U.S. oil and gas companies that have permits to begin drilling, but haven’t started."It’s simply not true that my administration or policies are holding back domestic energy production," Biden said March 8 in a speech announcing a U.S. ban on Russian oil imports. Biden said that companies pumped more oil in the U.S. during his first year in office than during his predecessor’s first year and that we were on track for record oil production next year. Then Biden pivoted to point the finger at the industry:"In the United States, 90% of onshore oil production takes place on land that isn’t owned by the federal government. And of the remaining 10% that occurs on federal land, the oil and gas industry has millions of acres leased," Biden said. "They have 9,000 permits to drill now. They could be drilling right now, yesterday, last week, last year. They have 9,000 to drill onshore that are already approved." Biden said that the companies are not using these permits to drill. "These are the facts. We should be honest about the facts." He’s right on the numbers of permits but what that means is a little more complicated than his statement suggests.The industry could move forward with the permits that it has that are currently unused and could ramp up domestic oil production to replace Russian oil, but these moves take time.Before drilling can occur, the lease holder has to get a federal permit. At the end of 2021, there were 9,173 approved and available permitsto drill on federal and Indian lands. Those permits include those issued under Biden and those still active from Trump’s administration and potentially before, said Josh Axelrod, of the National Resources Defense Council. Companies don’t have to immediately begin drilling as their leases last 10 years and can be extended beyond that. From a federal regulatory standpoint, once a permit is approved, industry can proceed. The president suggested the onus is on the industry to start drilling. But it’s not as simple as Biden made it seem, because there are some steps before companies begin production.Companies have to contract rigs to drill the wells, and build a sufficient inventory of permits before rigs are contracted, said Jennifer Pett, a spokesperson for the Independent Petroleum Association of America, a trade group that represents oil and natural gas producers. Douglas Holtz-Eakin, an economist and president of the American Action Forum, a center-right think tank, said firms are trying to assess the durability of the global rebound. "They have to be sure that the costly investment (and time) that it takes to turn a lease into a producing well is worth it."

Biden wants U.S. oil to drill more. Here’s why they’re holding back— The war in Ukraine has touched off a feud between the White House and U.S. oil industry as many companies reap record profits from rising prices despite pumping less crude than before the pandemic, leaving American consumers beset by surging gasoline costs. President Joe Biden has urged U.S. oil companies to step up production -- but they are wary given his historic hostility toward fossil fuels and the risk that new drilling won’t pay off over the long term. The political dangers are stacking up for an administration set to lose ground in midterm elections in November with record-high inflation stinging voters even before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. For now, polls show most Americans support the U.S. ban on Russian crude even if it means higher prices at the pump. Biden has pinned the surge directly on Vladimir Putin. This is “Putin’s price hike,” he said. “His logic of where to point the blame is probably justifiable and politically smart,” said Charles Franklin, director of the Marquette Law School Poll. “But does it make people ignore the fact that it’s costing them an extra 12 or 15 bucks to fill up the average car? I don’t think it makes those economic concerns to households go away.” The Biden administration finds itself in the uncomfortable position of pleading with oil companies to boost crude production, despite its long-term goal of shifting the U.S. away from the fossil fuels that worsen climate change. “We are on a war footing,” Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm told oil executives at the CERAWeek by S&P Global conference Wednesday. “We need oil and gas production to rise.” But it’s not as simple as oil companies turning on a spigot. These businesses make drilling plans based on economic forecasts for at least a year out, when OPEC+ may have boosted output and prices may have long since peaked. That leaves Biden in a political bind. Republicans are confident that inflation and gas prices will help deliver them control of Congress despite White House attempts to steer voters’ anger elsewhere. “Biden’s attempt to deflect blame is an insult to every American and small business owner struggling to afford the cost of everyday goods,” RNC Chairwoman Ronna McDaniel said Thursday in an emailed statement. Franklin, the Marquette pollster, said inflation and gas prices are “made-to-order issues for the opposition party” because “people feel them and you can point blame at the president.”

The Real Reason Big Oil Won't Save Us From High Gas Prices - As gas prices spike for American drivers, fossil fuel boosters have slammed President Joe Biden for policies they say constrain U.S. energy production. “We have the reserves here and this is preventable,” Rep. Garret Graves of Louisiana, the ranking Republican on the House Select Committee on Climate Crisis, told reporters in Washington Tuesday. “No leasing or energy production—that’s not an energy policy.” But to understand why the industry really isn’t ramping up production, it helps to hear what its leaders are telling each other off camera. In Houston this week, where oil and gas executives are gathered for the industry’s most influential annual conference, CERAWeek by S&P Global, industry insiders are having a very different conversation than the one broadcast on cable TV. The primary thing holding back more production isn’t government policies, they say. It’s money. Getting more oil flowing requires capital and comes with high risks in a volatile oil market. With steep losses in recent memory, the investors who control the purse strings are keeping the companies on a tight leash. “Ultimately, companies have to make a decision to risk their capital… nobody knows how this episode is going to play out,” Mark Viviano, managing partner at Kimmeridge, a private equity firm focused on oil and gas, told a packed conference room on March 8. “I don’t think it’s realistic to think there’s going to be a collective industry response to this crisis. Unfortunately, it’s just not the way the industry is.” In theory, that’s not how the market is supposed to work. Typically, a steep rise in oil prices would drive a steep uptick in drilling, but this time around may be different. After the industry suffered huge losses in the years leading up to the COVID-19 pandemic, investors continue to prioritize safe profits. And even though the Biden administration has enacted few climate regulations restricting oil and gas, industry leaders say they continue to feel the climate pressure from investors. Upset at their returns, investors started demanding changes, imposing what is widely referred to as “capital discipline.” Instead of financing drilling anywhere and everywhere, investors told oil companies to focus on their most profitable oil projects and shelve the others. The COVID-19 pandemic, and the resulting lockdown that briefly sent oil prices negative, confirmed the wisdom of that strategy. Jeff Ritenour, Chief Financial Officer at Devon Energy, an Oklahoma City-based oil and gas company, described at CERAWeek a “fundamental shift” that his business made to use profits to pay down debt, provide a reliable dividend to shareholders and buy back shares. In order to do that, the company has maintained a “low reinvestment ratio”—meaning it limits its investment in new production. Similar approaches have played out at firms across the industry and made “capital discipline” industry orthodoxy.

What's next for oil: Drilling boom, recession or more EVs? - Oil is flirting with danger. Crude prices continued to soar yesterday, raising concerns about their impact on the global economy. But it’s an open question as to what will happen next. Analysts said the surge in oil prices could spur any number of outcomes, from a drilling boom to a worldwide recession to an accelerated shift to electric vehicles. The range of consequences reflects the volatility in oil markets sparked by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the crippling sanctions issued by Western governments in response. The penalties notably exempted energy, but that has not prevented traders from voluntarily shunning Russian barrels. Two analysts estimated that about 3 million barrels a day of Russian production has been stranded by traders, which would amount to almost 40 percent of the country’s oil exports. Brent, the international crude benchmark, has risen from around $100 a barrel when Russia launched its attack in late February to almost $130 a barrel yesterday. “You have already seen a huge drop in Russian crude into the market, and the market has already caused a disruption without any of these bans,” said Marianne Kah, a former chief economist at ConocoPhillips who now tracks the industry at Columbia University’s Center on Global Energy Policy. The price surge came as the United States and United Kingdom yesterday announced bans on imports of Russian oil. Analysts said the bans were a secondary factor in the price spike. Both countries are relatively small importers of Russian oil. The United States imported 626,000 barrels a day of Russian oil in November while British purchases stood at 170,000 barrels a day, according to the International Energy Agency. Russia, by comparison, exported 7.8 million barrels a day that month. The American and British bans notably stopped short of preventing companies in other countries from buying Russian hydrocarbons. That’s important because Europe accounts for 60 percent of Russian oil exports. China represents another 20 percent. More consequential to the price spike has been the voluntary embargo that traders appear to have placed on Russian exports, analysts said. While energy has been exempt from Western sanctions so far, many oil purchases require buyers to secure a letter of credit from financial institutions. Buyers have reported difficulty obtaining those letters, Houser said. “There is some confusion in the market about what is sanctionable and what is not,” he said, noting the Treasury Department issued guidance last week to help answer those questions.

Oil producers in a 'dire situation' and unable to ramp up output, says Oxy CEO - As oil prices surge to the highest levels since 2008, Occidental Petroleum CEO Vicki Hollub said U.S. producers cannot increase output right away. "We're in a really dire situation," she said Tuesday at CERAWeek by S&P Global. "We've never faced a scenario where we need to grow production, when actually supply chains not only in our industry but every industry in the world [are] being impacted by the pandemic." U.S producers were largely expecting to keep production flat this year, and in the face of surging crude prices, output can't just be ramped up right away, Hollub said. "Now, with supply chain challenges, it makes any kind of attempt to grow now — and at a rapid pace — very, very difficult," she said. Production in the oil-rich Permian Basin is back around its pre-pandemic peak, according to Hollub, who noted the region faces significant challenges in boosting output. It's the only shale basin in the U.S. that can increase production, she said. Part of the difficulty is the need to offset declines from wells in the region that are past their peak. Other obstacles to growth are reverberating throughout the economy, including labor shortages and issues securing raw materials. While the industry had prepared for these hurdles, it had not accounted for a scenario in which it needed to rapidly crank out oil supply. "The call for incremental production in the United States, at this point, especially with the supply chain challenges, can't happen at the level that's needed not only for our country but for the world. We're in a significantly challenging scenario today," she said. Energy companies have emerged from the pandemic within a wholly different industry. While in previous years, it was all about growth, now capital discipline is king. In the wake of the pandemic, companies focused on paying down debt, returning cash to shareholders and reining in spending.

CEO of a major oil company: Even if we start drilling today, we won't have oil for a year -ConocoPhillips CEO Ryan Lance told CNBC on Tuesday that a decision now to start drilling for new oil will not bring immediate relief to the elevated prices seen around the globe. Lance's comments, made in an interview on "TechCheck," come shortly after the President Joe Biden announced the U.S. was banning Russian oil imports in a time when fears of supply shortages have caused prices to surge to their highest levels since 2008. The increasingly disciplined oil industry has faced some calls to hike production, in hopes that more drilling could alleviate the supply worries. But Lance said that is not an instant solution. CNBC's Brian Sullivan asked Lance how long it would take for ConocoPhillips to see the "first drop of new oil" from the ground if Lance called the company's board Tuesday and said "let's pump more oil, let's go for it." "Eight to 12 months," Lance said. "It's not that quick. Again, that's why we have to be thinking about the medium and longer term here to try to decide. We're spending 20% more capital this year than we did last year. We're going to grow our production this year over what we produced last year." ConocoPhillips could decide to put even more capital to work, the CEO said, adding the Houston-based exploration and production company "needs to make sure the returns are there." "We're dealing with the same inflation and supply chain every other manufacturer is dealing with in the U.S.," Lance said, echoing comments made earlier Tuesday by Occidental Petroleum CEO Vicki Hollub. Speaking at CERAWeek by S&P Global, Hollub said the industry was "in a really dire situation." She added, "We've never faced a scenario where we need to grow production, when actually supply chains not only in our industry but every industry in the world [are] being impacted by the pandemic." Lance, who's led ConocoPhillips for the past decade, described some of that dire situation facing companies operating in the oil-rich Permian Basin in West Texas and southeastern New Mexico. "You're seeing double-digit inflation rates" across a range of commodities and categories, Lance said, including land, trucking and chemicals imported from Europe. "All those supply chain issues are impacting our ability." "The question is, the price is high enough to incentivize more capital to go in and grow, but we have to watch the returns," Lance said. "We're just like any other business. We've got to make sure the capital we spend generates an adequate return for our shareholders." Russian import ban

U.S. oil industry prepares to boost production — but with a giant warning - — Executives at some of the world’s biggest oil and gas producers said on Monday they are ramping up their crude production as U.S. gasoline prices surge to $4 a gallon amid expectations that President Joe Biden and Congress would ban imports of Russian petroleum — but the companies warned not to expect new supplies overnight. Exxon Mobil and Chevron are both boosting oil production at the mammoth Permian Basin field in West Texas and New Mexico, strategies that both oil majors laid out last year but that have taken on new urgency because of the surge in oil prices to their highest level in 14 years. U.S. crude oil prices jumped more than $10 overnight to $130 a barrel on news that the U.S. was considering prohibiting Russian oil imports, though prices backed off later during Monday trading. That rally has driven retail gasoline prices up more than 46 cents in the past week, reaching a national average of $4.06 a gallon, according to fuel price service GasBuddy. Exxon has said it expected to increase its production from the Permian by 100,000 barrels per day this year, on top of a sharp ramp up last year to 460,000 barrels per day. “We’re well on our way to that,” CEO Darren Woods told an industry conference in Houston on Monday. Chevron has also said it would increase its production there by 60,000 barrels per day this year. But even with those sharp increases, keeping a lid on oil and gasoline prices will be difficult if Russia’s 5 million barrels per day of oil exports are taken off the market. The U.S. industry imports only a modest amount of Russian oil and refined products, but trading firms around the world are beginning to shun Russian supplies as governments tighten the financial sanctions on Russia in response to President Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine.

 Permian Headlines Double-Digit Increase in U.S. Drilling Activity - --A big drilling activity increase in Texas, and in the Permian Basin in particular, sent the U.S. rig count soaring 13 units higher to 663 for the week ended Friday (March 11), according to updated numbers from Baker Hughes Co. (BKR).Increases of eight oil-directed rigs and five natural gas-directed rigs saw the United States exit the week with 261 more active units than in the year-earlier period. U.S. land rigs increased by 14, partially offset by a one-rig decline in the Gulf of Mexico, according to the BKR numbers, which are based in part on data from Enverus.Horizontal rigs increased by 12 week/week, while directional rigs increased by three. Partially offsetting was a two-rig decrease in vertical rigs.The Canadian rig count, meanwhile, fell 11 units to end the week at 206, up from 116 in the year-earlier period. Declines there included seven oil-directed rigs, three natural gas-directed rigs and one miscellaneous unit.Looking at changes among major drilling regions, the Permian led with an increase of six rigs week/week, raising its total to 316, up from 212 a year ago. The Eagle Ford and Haynesville shales each added two rigs to their respective totals for the week, while one rig was added in the Utica Shale, the BKR data show.Broken down by state, Texas saw a 12-rig increase overall, according to BKR. Ohio and Wyoming each added a rig, while New Mexico saw a net decline of one rig for the period.Earlier in the week, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) released its latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, in which it forecast Brent crude oil prices of $116/bbl for 2Q2022. However, the agency cautioned that Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has clouded the outlook for energy markets. The Covid-19 pandemic had already created “greater-than-usual uncertainty” in EIA’s forecasting, and “this uncertainty has increased significantly following Russia’s further invasion of Ukraine,” according to the agency.Among the key developments that could impact oil markets moving forward, researchers said nations besides the United States could ban imports of Russian energy or announce further sanctions. Independent actions by corporations could also impact Russia’s oil production, they said. Meanwhile, producers not working in Russia could increase output in response to higher prices, according to the agency.

US oil, gas rig count up 10 to 770; Eagle Ford, SCOOP-STACK at 2-year highs - S&P Global - The US oil and gas rig count jumped by 10 to 770 in the week ending March 9, energy analytics and software company Enverus said, as activity in the Eagle Ford Shale and SCOOP-STACK hit two-year highs. Not registered? Receive daily email alerts, subscriber notes & personalize your experience. Register Now Rigs chasing oil plays totaled 599, up 12, while rigs directed to natural gas fields slipped by two to 171. Eagle Ford rigs tallied 67, up by four, a figure that hasn't been matched since 68 rigs in the week ended March 25, 2020. In January-February 2020, Eagle Ford rigs totals were in the low 80s. Sited in South Texas, the Eagle Ford is one of the largest domestic basins with production of 1.14 million b/d of oil and about 5.2 Bcf/d of natural gas, according to the most recent S&P Global Commodity Insights estimates. In February, the play averaged internal return rates in the low 60%s, S&P Global data showed, slightly lower than the Delaware Basin in the western Permian Basin of West Texas/New Mexico. Among the eight largest US basins, the SCOOP-STACK play of Oklahoma and the Marcellus Shale, found mostly in Pennsylvania and West Virginia, also gained rigs. The SCOOP-STACK rose by two to 45, a level last seen in late October 2019, while the Marcellus Shale was up by one rig to 41. The giant Permian Basin shed two rigs, leaving 318, while the Bakken Shale of North Dakota/Montana and the Utica Shale mostly of Ohio each lost one rig, leaving 20 in the Bakken and 12 in the Utica. The DJ Basin in Colorado and the Haynesville each remained stable on the week at 17 and 71 rigs, respectively. Drilling and oil and gas production made headlines not only at the CERAWeek by S&P Global energy conference over the past week but in mainstream news outlets. A major question at White House press conferences was whether the US could raise oil production in the wake of Russia's invasion of the Ukraine in February. While White House press secretary Jen Psaki claimed E&P operators already have in hand thousands of approved permits but aren't using them, the reasons companies aren't drilling mostly center around operators' unwillingness to over-drill and lack of adequate crews and materials, analysts say. "A North American accelerated oil supply response is unlikely due to 1) continued [upstream operators'] capital discipline, 2) labor tightness, and 3) equipment and materials tightness/lack of supply (sand, drill pipe, casing, high-spec land rigs, frac spreads, chemicals, etc.)," Evercore ISI analyst James West said in a March 9 investor note. "While capital can solve for many of these issues, it will amplify an already highly inflationary environment." Experts say it could take a while to ready industry for large production increases. "It would take a good 18 months to get the industry going again to grow a lot more than the projections" by analysts of up to 1 million b/d production growth in 2022, Scott Sheffield, CEO of Pioneer Natural Resources, said March 9 at CERAWeek. Whether US active but unused permits actually number 9,000 as Psaki claimed or not, given a low permit cost, many operators will get permits for an "abundance" of wells, said Nathan Hasbrook, energy analyst-supply and production for S&P Global. Each geologic play or region has unique challenges with getting drill locations determined and permits approved, so companies try to have extra permitted well locations to provide flexibility, Hasbrook said. But a fair number of those "extra" permits are never drilled. "They [are] for 'just in case'," he said. "If there are delays with permitting or land issues, the management team will have flexibility in deciding where they want to drill and not run short on options."

California county rejects ExxonMobil plan to truck oil (AP) — The defeat of an ExxonMobil proposal to run thousands of truck trips a year in central California to transport oil from now-idled offshore platforms has intensified the focus on an even larger dispute: building a pipeline across the state to move the crude. The Santa Barbara County Board of Supervisors rejected the interim trucking plan Tuesday on a 3-2 vote, denying the company a crucial step in its hopes of resuming production at the decades-old trio of drilling platforms. The company has said trucking was the only option to transport crude to markets until a pipeline is available. In a separate proposal under review by regulators, Houston-based Plains All American Pipeline wants to replace a pipeline that was shut down in 2015 after causing California’s worst coastal spill in 25 years. For decades, that line had been the link between the platforms in the Pacific and processing plants on shore. A complex environmental review of the pipeline plan is not expected until October. The emerging debate is playing out amid the global climate crisis, as the state moves toward banning gas-powered vehicles and oil drilling, while record gas prices have left consumers with sticker shock at the pumps. It wasn't immediately clear if ExxonMobil would try to challenge the decision in court. Ben Oakley, manager of the California coastal region for the Western States Petroleum Association, said the supervisors “chose to make California even more reliant on imported energy at a time when Californians are already struggling with some of the highest energy costs on record.” The trucking proposal and the pipeline development have been opposed by environmentalists, who want the state's transition to renewables accelerated and point to recent spills and potential threats from aging equipment.

Santa Barbara County to consider restarting offshore oil production -The Santa Barbara County Board of Supervisors on Tuesday will consider a proposal by Exxon-Mobil to restart oil production off the county’s coast.Supervisor Das Williams said the oil company wants to “restart an oil operation that was going previous to the oil spill in 2015.”In 2015, the county’s Refugio State Beach was hit hard as more than 140,000 gallons of crude oil spilled into the ocean after an underground pipeline cracked.“That kind of disaster is not something that the people of the community forget very easily, and we’re pretty suspicious of new and expanded oil projects,” Williams said. Environmentalists are also wary. Bill Hickman, regional manager of the the ocean-and-beach-focused Surfrider Foundation, brought up last year’s oil spill off the Orange County coast. “The oil spill in Orange County was a reminder of past oil spills in Santa Barbara and the need to phase out offshore oil drilling for cleaner energy solutions,” he said.

Some shale deals stall after Russian ban whipsaws oil prices — Some oil and gas dealmakers are hitting the pause button as prices whipsaw following the ban on Russian oil imports. Companies are concerned about overpaying for assets while focused on cutting debt and rewarding shareholders. For example, the owners of Sequitur Energy Resources are holding onto 83,000 net acres in part of the Permian Basin the company began marketing about six months ago, according to people familiar with the matter. The closely held company sought a higher valuation than what the market gave, said the people, who asked to not be identified because the matter isn’t public. Sundance Energy, an explorer in the Eagle Ford shale that started a sale process late last year, also saw widening valuation gaps as oil prices surged following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the people said. While the company is talking with three bidders, its owners are keen to continue drilling and reap free cash flow for the time being, they said. Representatives for Sequitur and private equity sponsor ACON Investments didn’t respond to requests for comment. Sundance didn’t respond to requests for comment. To be sure, some deals are still getting done in the oil patch, despite the volatility. Oasis Petroleum Inc. and Whiting Petroleum Corp. agreed to a $6 billion merger this week, while Chevron Corp. agreed last month to buy a biofuels producer for about $3.1 billion. But the Sundance and Sequitur situations underscore how seesawing commodity prices can muddle dealmaking, especially if the transaction requires new money to be invested. In response to the surge in oil prices, domestic oil and gas companies are being called to ramp up production to help fill a supply shortfall and soften the blow to the economy. Still, it will likely take time to see a meaningful output growth as most producers are maintaining greater capital discipline than before, while supply-chain issues and labor shortage remain. Oil futures in New York rebounded to nearly $115 a barrel Thursday, after slumping the most in almost two years as the fallout from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine continues to rattle the market. The sharp intraday swings came as the United Arab Emirates sent conflicting signals on whether OPEC+ would increase output to help fill a supply shortfall.

Whiting, Oasis to Join Forces in Bakken Through ‘Merger of Equals’ - Bakken Shale independents Whiting Petroleum Corp. and Oasis Petroleum Inc. have agreed to join forces in a “merger of equals” transaction, the companies said Monday. “The combined company will have a premier Williston Basin position with top tier assets across approximately 972,000 net acres, combined production of 167,800 boe/d, significant scale and enhanced free cash flow generation to return capital to shareholders,” the companies said. Whiting CEO Lynn Peterson will serve as executive chair of the new company’s board, while Oasis CEO Danny Brown will be its CEO. “The combination will bring together two excellent operators with complementary and high-quality assets to create a leader in the Williston Basin, poised for significant and resilient cash flow generation,” said Brown. Peterson said the transaction brings together “two like-minded companies” with assets in North Dakota and Montana. He added, “We look forward to unlocking the enormous potential of our assets and organizations for the benefit of our stakeholders.” The management teams highlighted each company’s environmental, social and governance (ESG) efforts, including what they called a “top tier gas capture track record in North Dakota.” Brown added, “Over the last year, both companies have executed a series of deliberate strategic transactions, reducing costs and establishing a leading framework for ESG and return of capital. “The combination of the two companies, together with the ongoing momentum from these strategic actions, will accelerate our efforts and ideally position the combined company to generate strong free cash flow, execute a focused strategy and enhance the return of capital.” Upon closing, which is expected in the second half of 2022, Whiting and Oasis shareholders will own about 53% and 47% of the combined company, respectively. The transaction will combine “high quality assets with low breakeven pricing,” the firms said, with expected production of 164,000-169,000 boe/d in 2022. “The combined company is expected to generate significant free cash flow from its high-quality assets and disciplined capital spending across a wide range of commodity price scenarios,” the management teams said.

North Dakotans weigh in on methane emissions proposal - North Dakotans have a lot to say about the Biden administration’s plans to curb methane emissions, weighing in on how often oil field inspections should occur and how much the federal government can legally regulate. Comments submitted earlier this year by state officials, the oil industry, the Three Affiliated Tribes and environmentalists are among those the Environmental Protection Agency will consider as it develops regulations surrounding the potent greenhouse gas that can leak from oil field infrastructure. North Dakota officials say the EPA proposal has “significant technical and legal flaws” and that the agency “must drastically rework” its plans. The North Dakota Petroleum Council argues for more flexibility in leak inspections, while an environmental advocate says inspections should occur more frequently than what the EPA is considering. The tribe, meanwhile, says any new national standards “should not burden or prevent production of tribal trust minerals.” Methane is the main component of natural gas produced in the Bakken oil fields. It has been the subject of a legal and political tug-of-war, particularly after the Obama administration proposed more stringent regulations in 2015. North Dakota is among a number of oil- and gas-producing states that sued the federal government over the Obama-era regulations. The Trump administration rolled back those rules, but Congress last year eliminated the Trump-era rule. The Biden administration in late 2021 proposed regulations that include what it calls a “comprehensive monitoring program for new and existing well sites and compressor stations.” It suggests a number of steps that it says would reduce 41 million tons of methane emissions by 2035. That amount is equal to 920 million metric tons of carbon dioxide, another greenhouse gas. The EPA says that is more than the amount of carbon dioxide emitted by all passenger cars and commercial aircraft in the United States in 2019. Comments submitted by two North Dakota regulators said the EPA’s proposal is unlawful in part because it relies upon presidential executive orders, whereas regulations must be based on authority granted by the Clean Air Act. State Mineral Resources Director Lynn Helms and state Air Quality Director Jim Semerad added that the federal government lacks authority to impose requirements for limiting emissions from existing infrastructure and can do so only for new facilities. The EPA can set guidelines for existing sites, but it’s states that have authority over the matter, they said. The state also takes issue with the EPA’s idea to establish a community monitoring program that would allow members of the public to detect and report emissions in addition to the industry's own inspections and those performed by government officials.

Bakken energy industry is getting a moment to push for more American oil production - The Bakken’s energy industry has long pushed back against green energy movements, promoting the narrative that its oil and gas production is vitally important to American energy security. The recent invasion of the Ukraine could help it further that narrative, and congressional delegations in both North Dakota and Montana are both busy using it to win some political points for the energy sectors in their state.Montana Republican Sen. Steve Daines and North Dakota Republican Sens. John Hoeven and Kevin Cramer are all signatories to a letter the Senate Committee on Energy and Natural Resources sent to President Joe Biden outlining 10 steps he and Congress should take to restore America’s energy independence.“Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has laid bare a broken U.S. energy policy,” the senators wrote in the letter. “It is time to change course and return America to its dominant role in global energy. It is no secret that we have been opposed to the approach you have taken towards American energy production. Your administration’s focus on ending the production and use of traditional sources of American energy has contributed to soaring inflation. It also has left the U.S. and our allies vulnerable to the malicious maneuverings of Vladimir Putin.”Insult was added to injury, the Senators suggested, when climate envoy John Kerry, despite Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, was saying, ‘I hope President Putin will help us to stay on track with respect to what we need to do for the climate.’”Cancelling Keystone XL pipeline was among the first steps the Biden Administration took that started the ball rolling on inflationary measures that have aggravated market uncertainty, and caused underinvestment in oil and natural gas that is leading to high energy costs. That’s exacerbating inflation that’s been brought on by supply chain issues in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic.“(This) has hurt American families and our economy,” the letter continues. “Those decisions have also weakened our ability to addresss the immediate crisis in Ukraine and support our North Atlantic Treaty Organization allies.”American policies need to make America and her allies less dependent on Russian oil, the letter continues.“It is time for your administration to develop a new approach that embraces America’s energy abundance,” the senators wrote. “American-produced energy is not just good for our economy and international competitiveness. Making America energy dominant will increase our nation’s and our allies’ security.”

Canada Says Its Oil Could Replace U.S. Imports Of Russian Crude - Canada’s oil could replace American imports of Russian crude, the top officials of the oil-producing province Alberta said this weekend.As talks about banning Russian oil imports in the United States and its European allies intensify, reports have started to emerge that the U.S. Administration could be looking to persuade Saudi Arabia to pump more oil or lift some sanctions on Venezuela to help fill the gap that a Russian oil embargo would open.On Sunday, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said that the United States and its European allies were in “very active discussions” about banning the import of Russian oil over Putin’s war in Ukraine.Even without sanctions on Russian oil, some of the biggest U.S. importers of Russian crude oil have started suspending their purchases of the commodity.Canada has long pitched its crude as one that is not produced in rogue government regimes such as Venezuela, Iran, or Russia, and Alberta’s top officials now say that its crude could be the answer to more supply from allied nations to the United States.Retweeting Elon Musk’s comments that “we need to increase oil & gas output immediately,” Alberta’s Energy Minister Sonya Savage said on Saturday:“Agreed. And it should come from Alberta, home of the 3rd largest oil reserves. Alberta is the answer to US Energy security. Real emissions reductions, reliable, right next door.”Alberta’s Premier Jason Kenney said that he and Savage would be attending the CERAWeek conference in Houston this week, where “We will be meeting with decision-makers to secure access to markets, attract job-creating investment to our province, and argue for Canadian energy to displace Russian conflict oil.” Kenney also said that Alberta would be delighted to welcome a visit from U.S. President Joe Biden, as one reportedly being considered to Saudi Arabia.

Alberta's Premier Pushes for Revival of Trump-Backed Keystone Pipeline -A Canadian politician is pushing for the the revival of the Keystone XL oil pipeline project that President Joe Biden canceled in January 2021. The move would boost US energy security amid the war in Ukraine."If the United States is serious about this, they could come back to the table and help us build Keystone XL," Alberta Premier Jason Kenney said at a news conference on Monday, according to a video posted to Canada's Global News website.Kenney added that had Biden not shut down plans for the pipeline, the "democratic energy" it provided could have, by the end of the year, been displacing the "Russian conflict oil that's filled with the blood of Ukrainians."The Obama administration rejected the pipeline due to environmental concerns, but President Donald Trump revived the project in 2017 and construction started in 2020. The pipeline's developer, TC Energy, terminated the $9 billion project in June. Less than 10% of the pipeline had been constructed when Biden revoked a key permit last January, according to the Reuters Fact Check team.The Keystone XL pipeline was slated to cover about 1,240 miles from Alberta to Nebraska, and to be able to carry 830,000 barrels of crude oil a day, per the Alberta government's website. The US imported about 209,000 barrels of crude oil each day from Russia in 2021, according to the American Fuel and Petrochemical Manufacturers trade association.Kenney said the Keystone XL pipeline could be built by the first quarter of 2023 if the Biden administration gives the go ahead, according to Global News. Calgary-based TC Energy told Insider the existing Keystone pipeline system "will continue to provide unique, stable and safe source of energy to meet increasing US energy demands." The US is now considering a ban on Russian oil imports on its own, according to Reuters, citing two people familiar with the matter. This would come at a sensitive time as oil prices have surged 60% this year to a multiyear high.White House press secretary Jen Psaki suggested Monday that resuming the Keystone XL pipeline project would not affect gas prices. This is as "the oil is continuing to flow in, just through other means. So it actually would have nothing to do with the current supply imbalance," Psaki said, according to an official transcript."What we can do to prevent this from being a challenge in future crises, the best thing we can do, is reduce our dependence on fossil fuels and foreign oil, because that will help us have a reliable source of energy so that we're not worried about gas prices going up because of the whims of a foreign dictator," Psaki added.US crude oil production reached 11.8 million barrels a day inNovember and is set to rise to record highs at 12 million barrels a day in 2022 and 12.6 million barrels a day in 2013, according to theEnergy Information Administration.

Republicans want Keystone XL Pipeline but company says the project 'will not proceed' -- Republicans across the country are calling for the Keystone XL Pipeline to restart construction to help combat high oil prices, but the company says the canceled project 'will not proceed' as it ends permits and pulls infrastructure out of the ground. "The Keystone XL pipeline project was terminated in June 2021 and will not proceed," TC Energy said in an email. "TC Energy has now disposed of almost all of its project-related assets in South Dakota," the Canadian company said in a new report that lists the steps it's taken to exit the state. The company is also asking the South Dakota Public Utilities Commission for permission to terminate its $15.6 million road bond. Canceling this bond would be TC Energy's "final step in front of the PUC," according to staff attorney Kristen Edwards. But Gov. Kristi Noem, South Dakota's congressional delegation, and other Republicans across the country are calling for pipeline construction to restart after Russia invaded Ukraine. U.S. House Republicans have even introduced a bill, co-sponsored by South Dakota Rep. Dusty Johnson, that would allow TC Energy to restart the pipeline without a presidential permit. Republicans say Biden's energy policies — including canceling the KXL Pipeline — mean less leverage and high gas prices for the United States as well as more money and power for Russia's war effort. But TC Energy is not budging from the decision it made to shutter the project after President Joe Biden revoked the permit it needs to cross into the U.S. The KXL Pipeline would have connected to the existing Keystone Pipeline to help transport Alberta tar sands oil in Canada to the Gulf of Mexico. The 1,200-mile pipeline would have traveled southeast through nine South Dakota counties. The company says it's already helping the U.S. meet its energy needs. "The existing Keystone Pipeline System is strategically located and continues to be fully utilized," TC Energy said in an email. "It has delivered over 3.3 billion barrels of crude oil to market since 2010. It will continue to provide unique, stable and safe source of energy to meet increasing U.S. energy demands."

Energy policy handcuffs Canada amid Russian oil ban: Ex-TransCanada CEO - As more and more countries shun Russian oil, it might seem like a big opportunity for Canada’s energy industry to sell more of its crude to the world, but an industry veteran says it’s not as easy as it sounds. In fact, it could take years. Hal Kvisle, a former chief executive of TransCanada Corp. and Talisman Energy Inc., said Canada could increase its crude production in certain high-productivity oil basins in Alberta and Saskatchewan, but “not by much.” “The reality is Canada could add three or four million barrels a day if we were called upon, but it takes more than five years lead time to do projects like that,” he said in an interview Tuesday. “It's the tragedy of North American energy policy over the last 10 or 15 years,” added Kvisle. An increasing number of countries are banning imports of Russian oil to put pressure on President Vladimir Putin after he directed an invasion of Ukraine. The United States and United Kingdom announced plans Tuesday to wind down their exposure to Russian fossil fuels over the coming weeks and months. But that will leave these countries on the hunt for replacement barrels, which will likely put further strain on global crude inventories and push oil prices even higher. On Tuesday, American benchmark crude West Texas Intermediate rose another 3.6 per cent to settle at US$123.70 per barrel, its highest since August 2008. Kvisle said Canada has the resources, but energy policies have hampered development of the oil sands and the infrastructure needed to transport crude to market. “Even to add the first half million barrels a day would take five years because of regulatory processes,” he said. “These things take a long time.” Alberta Premier Jason Kenney has taken the opportunity to raise the idea of reviving TC Energy Corp.’s Keystone XL pipeline, which was effectively killed by U.S. President Biden over environmental concerns, as a way to get more oil to the U.S. market. However, in an emailed statement late Tuesday, a TC Energy spokesperson confirmed the Keystone XL pipeline project was terminated and “will not proceed.” Kvisle said he’s not optimistic that the Canadian and American governments will quickly change their tune on big oil because of pressure from environmental groups. “I think even politicians who know that we need to take some urgent steps are going to be restrained in doing what they understand we need to do because of their political constituencies,” he said.

Gas leak at ConocoPhillips' field in Alaska prompts evacuations -local media - Slope, Alaska,local media reportedon Tuesday, with one local official saying the gas was still leaking. The leak was discovered Friday at a drill site in ConocoPhillips' Alpine oil field, one of the largest on the North Slope, reported the Fairbanks Daily News-Miner. The gas was still leaking as of Tuesday, said Rosemary Ahtuangaruak, mayor of Nuiqsut, an Inupiat village about seven miles south of the oil field. As of now, it is unclear if there is an effect on the village of about 450 people, she said. ConocoPhillips evacuated non-essential workers at the drill site and at the Alpine Central Facility, the newspaper reported. The Alaska Oil and Gas Conservation Commission, a state regulatory agency, is monitoring the leak and ConocoPhillips' response, an official said. "Based on its investigation to date, the Commission is unaware of any threats to public safety," Jeremy Price, chairman of the commission, said in a statement, adding that due to the open investigation the commission could not comment further. ConocoPhillips did not respond to queries as of Tuesday afternoon. In Nuiqsut, residents are uneasy despite the official assurances, Ahtuangaruak said. "We have community members that have reported smelling gas since Friday," she said. Since Nuiqsut is edged by oil development, there are longtime concerns about chronic air pollution from the operations, Ahtuangaruak said. Over the years, there have been "gains and losses" in local efforts to better control air pollution, she said. Nuiqsut residents are vulnerable to air pollution for a variety of factors, the mayor said. Those include past epidemics of tuberculosis and other diseases that weakened respiratory systems, along with poor housing with bad indoor air quality.

As BP, Shell, ExxonMobil Announce Cutting Ties to Russia, Oil Baron Charles Koch Remains Silent About His Sprawling Russian Operations By Pam and Russ Martens -British Petroleum (BP), Shell, ExxonMobil and Norwegian oil and gas producer, Equinor, have all released statements indicating they are severing business ties with Russia in response to its invasion of Ukraine. But billionaire oil baron Charles Koch, who has sat at the helm of Koch Industries for more than half a century, has been unusually quiet about his plans for his sprawling Russian operations.According to Koch Industries, one of the largest private corporations in the world, three of its companies operate in Russia: Molex, a manufacturer of semi-conductors, printed circuits, fiber optics and a multitude of other electrical components; Koch Engineered Solutions, which makes process and pollution control equipment; and Guardian Industries, a glass and auto parts manufacturer. Another unit of Koch Industries, Koch Supply and Trading, has a history of trading Russian oil.Guardian Industries’ division, Guardian Glass, has two large plants in Russia: one in Ryazan and one in Rostov. The Rostov plant was described as follows in a 2011 press release from Guardian Glass: “The $220-million plant will be Guardian’s largest, producing 900 tons of glass per day, and will include a technologically advanced glass coater”Should Charles Koch be supplying glass for “homes, offices, retail, health care” in Russia while Russian President Vladimir Putin, in the name of Russia, is bombing homes, offices and hospitals into rubble in Ukraine and ruthlessly killing innocent children and families? According to ImportGenius.com, in the past eight years Koch Supply and Trading has purchased large amounts of oil from two Russian companies, Gazprom Neft and Surgutex. Koch Supply and Trading is a sprawling trading octopus that operates in the dark for the most part. For all anyone knows, it could be trading Russian oil on world markets, which could be propping up the price of Russian oil and helping to finance Putin’s brutal and murderous campaign in Ukraine.According to the Wall Street Journal, the first-ever shipments of Russian crude oil purchased by the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve in 2002 were supplied by Koch Industries.

Peru faces risk of aviation fuel supply drying up in a week-The prolonged closure of a Repsol refinery could lead to fuel supply for commercial airlines in Peru drying up soon, warned the country’s aviation sector. The country will be able to supply fuel only till 17 March. As a result, with stock already depleting due to the shut-down, fuel supply could run out within a week, as per the aviation sector. The airline operators union has requested for “urgent support” from the government to mitigate this scarcity of fuel, reported Reuters.

Natural gas prices in Europe hit an all-time high — The price of natural gas in Europe hit an all-time high on March 7, briefly touching €345 per megawatt-hour. That’s equivalent, in terms of British thermal units of energy, to oil prices of $600 per barrel. Late in the day, the price had settled back to about €190, still a record. Before the last 12 months—when the European gas market was rocked first by a compounding series of market trends and mishaps, and now by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine—the price had stayed roughly in the range of €15-25 per MWh for a decade. “The eye-watering risk premium suggests expectations that gas flows will potentially be disrupted by sanctions on Russian energy exports or damage to pipeline infrastructure,” Kaushal Ramesh, senior analyst at intelligence firm Rystad Energy, said in a note. “At these prices, we are likely approaching the limits of affordability in Western Europe.” Prices like this are fueling momentum for Europe to reduce its gas consumption as quickly as possible—and to levy new windfall taxeson gas companies to help finance the transition to renewable energy.

Angry dock workers in the UK are refusing to unload Russian oil due to Ukraine invasion— Dock workers in Britain are taking a stand against Russia's invasion of Ukraine with ports in the country refusing to unload Russian oil and gas. Tough sanctions from the U.K. government mean that Russian ships are not allowed to dock at British ports. However, a loophole means that Russian goods and energy can still be transported into the country using foreign ships — there is currently no blockade on oil and gas from Russia. It appears that workers at these ports are now taking matters into their own hands. Essar Group, which runs the Stanlow refinery in northwest England, said a German-flagged vessel had been given approval to berth at the nearby Tranmere Oil Terminal on the River Mersey. However, Sharon Graham, the general secretary of U.K. union Unite, said that her members will "under no circumstances unload any Russian oil regardless of the nationality of the vessel which delivers it.""I am very proud of @unitetheunion's members taking a principled stand to prevent Russian oil coming to our ports," she added via a tweet early on Sunday. "But it is appalling that they have been put in this position by the @GOVUK, which is still dragging its feet on sanctions." Meanwhile, two Russian ships that were due to dock in Kent, in southeast England, were turned away this weekend due to the sanctions. Staff at the Grain LNG port had expressed their anger that they might be asked to unload the ships' cargoes.

Gas Prices: Why EU and UK Sanctions Game Will See No Winners - 06.03.2022, Sputnik International -- Eight and half million households may end up in fuel poverty, being forced to pay over £3,000 (about $4,000) a year to heat their homes amid the European energy crisis, which has been further exacerbated by sweeping anti-Russian sanctions. However, it's only the beginning, economic observers have warned."It was already a very big burden – on which the [UK] government has offered subsidies – before the imposition of the latest sanctions. Any 'wartime boost' to [UK Prime Minister Boris] Johnson’s popularity (went from -17% to + 17% among Conservatives!) will not survive the inevitable dramatic rises due to the new sanctions", says Rodney Atkinson, a British academic as well as political and economic commentator.Last month, British industry regulator Ofgem signalled that the energy price cap would be increased by £693 ($916.67) from April 2022 as a result of an unprecedented 54% spike in global wholesale gas prices. British households on default tariffs will now be facing bills of £1,971 ($2,607) a year, according to iNews. Still, the rally in natural gas prices has been accelerated by the West's sweeping sanctions over Moscow's special operation to demilitarise and de-Nazify Ukraine, which started on 24 February.On 4 March, European gas futures prices increased by 30% reaching a record high of $2,400 per 1,000 cubic metres, according to the London-based ICE exchange. Even though the UK is less reliant on Russian gas than other EU states, Europe-wide sanctions are driving British energy prices higher as part of a knock-on effect."Whether Britain is inside or outside the EU, the energy prices it pays are indeed linked to the EU since it gets a lot of its gas needs from the EU", explains Dr Mamdouh G. Salameh, an international oil economist and visiting professor of energy economics at ESCP Europe Business School, London.Foreign secretary Liz Truss on 27 February told the BBC's Sunday Morning that "fighting for freedom" in Ukraine "has a very high cost for us", insisting that it's a price worth paying."Liz Truss has lost any credibility she ever had with her disastrous failure to understand even basic geography (confusing the Baltic with the Black Sea and Russian regions with the Donbass) and her penchant for making others pay for her 'price worth paying'", says Atkinson. "The horrendous energy price rises will not be seen as a price worth paying by anyone. And the Government’s own finances post COVID cannot do a lot to help".Meanwhile, British businesses have already been affected, according to him. He singles out the steel industry, which has been crippled both by rising energy prices and carbon taxes, as well as the failure of the Biden administration to lift tariffs on British steel exports. Chemical firms, which are energy intensive, are also badly hit, according to the economic commentator.To complicate matters further, the Johnson government on 1 March imposed a ban on Russian vessels docking in the UK. This "will have additional disastrous effects on the economy", says Atkinson, adding that all this is happening before Russia introduces its potential energy counter-sanctions.

Imports of Russian Oil: U.S., European allies discuss banning imports of Russian oil --The United States and European allies are exploring banning imports of Russian oil, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said on Sunday, and the White House coordinated with key Congressional committees moving forward with their own ban. Europe relies on Russia for crude oil and natural gas but has become more open to the idea of banning Russian products in the past 24 hours, a source familiar with the discussions told Reuters on Sunday. Meanwhile, U.S. House of Representatives Speaker Nancy Pelosi also said in a Sunday letter that the chamber is "exploring" legislation to ban the import of Russian oil and that Congress intends to enact this week $10 billion in aid for Ukraine in response to Moscow's military invasion of its neighbour. The White House is also talking with the Senate Finance Committee and House of Representatives Ways and Means Committee about a potential ban, the source said. Still, Blinken also stressed the importance of maintaining steady oil supplies globally. "We are now in very active discussions with our European partners about banning the import of Russian oil to our countries, while of course, at the same time, maintaining a steady global supply of oil," Blinken said in an interview on NBC's "Meet the Press" show. Blinken, who is on a trip across Europe to coordinate with allies the response to Russia's invasion of Ukraine, also said he discussed oil imports with President Joe Biden and his cabinet on Saturday. Japan, which counts Russia as its fifth-biggest supplier of crude oil, is also in discussion with the United States and European countries about possibly banning Russian oil imports, Kyodo News reported on Monday. Asked about a potential embargo on Russian oil imports at a regular news conference on Monday, Japan's top government spokesperson Hirokazu Matsuno declined to comment on its communication with the United States. Oil prices have soared over the past week after the United States and its allies sanctioned Russia over the invasion. A bipartisan group of U.S. senators introduced a bill on Thursday to ban U.S. imports of Russian oil. The bill is getting fast-tracked and could ultimately become the vehicle for the sanctions.

Shell to buy Russian crude and use profits to help Ukraine - Shell, Europe’s largest oil company, said Saturday that it would probably continue to buy Russian crude oil to feed into its refineries and supply customers with gasoline and diesel but would donate any profits to a fund dedicated to “the people of Ukraine.” Shell had said last Monday that it was pulling out of operations in Russia. It issued a statement on its oil purchases Saturday, a day after an article in the Financial Times revealed that the company had bought a ccargo of Russian crude oil. Shell said in the statement that it understood that governments wanted energy flows to continue from Russia for the time being. The company described the purchase of the oil as “a difficult decision” taken to “avoid disruptions to market supply.” It went on, “Without an uninterrupted supply of crude oil to refineries, the energy industry cannot assure continued provision of essential products to people across Europe in the weeks ahead.”

Shell defends decision to buy discounted oil from Russia -Oil major Shell has sought to defend its decision to buy a heavily-discounted consignment of oil from Russia, saying it would commit the profits to a fund dedicated to humanitarian aid for Ukraine. On Friday, Shell purchased 100,000 metric tons of flagship Urals crude from Russia. It was reportedly bought at a record discount, with many firms shunning Russian oil due to Moscow's unprovoked invasion of its neighbor. The purchase did not violate any Western sanctions. Shell said in a statement late Saturday that it had been in "intense talks with governments and continue to follow their guidance around this issue of security of supply, and are acutely aware we have to navigate this dilemma with the utmost care." "We didn't take this decision lightly and we understand the strength of feeling around it," the statement read. The company has faced heavy criticism from Ukraine's Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba, who wants companies to cut all business ties with Russia. "One question to Shell: doesn't Russian oil smell Ukrainian blood for you?" Kuleba said in a tweet Saturday. Speaking to CNBC Monday, Kuleba launched a scathing attack on firms still doing business with Russia, saying that some major oil companies could find themselves on the wrong side of history. "The world will judge them accordingly. And history will judge them accordingly," he told CNBC's Hadley Gamble. Shell said earlier this week that it intended to exit its joint ventures with Russian gas giant Gazprom and its related entities. Meanwhile, rival BP announced Sunday last week that it was offloading its 19.75% stake in Rosneft, a Russian-controlled oil company, potentially hitting the British oil major with a costly $25 billion charge. In its new statement, Shell said Saturday that the company welcomed "any direction or insights" from governments or policymakers. "We will continue to choose alternatives to Russian oil wherever possible, but this cannot happen overnight because of how significant Russia is to global supply," the company said in the statement.

Here are the countries that import the most Russian oil --The vast majority of Russia's oil exports are purchased by Europe and China, which together account for 90 percent of the country's total exports. That's made it tougher for Europe to enact similar bans as the U.S. on Russian imports and lessens the economic hit to Moscow from the Biden administration's decision this week to cut off Russian oil. Russia is the world’s biggest exporter of oil to global markets and the second-largest exporter of crude oil behind Saudi Arabia, exporting about 2.85 million barrels per day by sea lanes and pipelines, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA). European nations are the largest collective buyer of that oil, while China is the petro-state's largest single purchaser. In 2021, Europe bought up about 42 percent of Russia's total oil production, while China purchased 14 percent and 30 percent stayed in Russia. Other major countries to purchase Russian oil include Germany, the Netherlands, the U.S., Poland and South Korea. Russia’s customers are varied, and outside of Europe, most — like China and the United States — draw from a wide variety of sources. But European nations, which in November 2021 imported about seven times as much Russian oil as the United States, are far more reliant on Russian oil imports and some Eastern European countries are almost entirely dependent on Russian oil. Lithuania, for example, gets 83 percent of its oil imports from Russia, followed by Finland (80 percent), Slovakia (74 percent), Poland (58 percent), Hungary (43 percent) and Estonia (34 percent). Germany follows at 30 percent, joined by Norway (25 percent), Belgium (23 percent), Turkey (21 percent), Denmark (15 percent) and Spain (11 percent). On that list, only Norway has a substantial oil industry of its own — it’s the world’s 13th largest producer — and the 45,000 barrels it imported from Russia every day in 2021 paled in comparison to the more than 2 million barrels it produced itself. Russia is a major producer, consumer and exporter of not just oil but also coal and natural gas, and the various refined products made from them. Russia's fossil fuel industry produced the energy equivalent of 11 billion barrels of oil in 2019, according to the IEA. For many European countries, Russian oil and natural gas are vital sources of power and heat, and Russian oil is the dominant source of gasoline and other refined petroleum products. The country exported about 54 percent of its coal, 31 percent of its natural gas and 70 percent of its oil in 2019, according to the IEA, with the coal primarily exported to China’s power and metallurgy industries and the oil and natural gas primarily going to Europe.

 Saudi Aramco pipeline receives $13.4bln loan from a multi-bank consortium: Alarabiya - A multi-bank consortium has agreed $13.4 billion of financing to purchase a stake in Saudi Aramco's gas pipelines, Alarabiya reported citing unnamed sources. A total of 19 banks were involved in the deal, led by BlackRock Real Assets and Hassana Investment Co., and including HSBC, JP Morgan, BNP Paribas, Societe Generale, Citibank, Credit Agricole. Three Gulf banks participated in the deal including First Abu Dhabi Bank, Riyad Bank and Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank. Pricing for the 7-year financing will start at 50 basis points and increase annually to 175 basis points by the end of the financing period, according to Alarabiya Earlier last month, the Saudi oil giant completed a deal to sell a 49 percent stake in its natural-gas pipelines for $15.5 billion to the consortium.

Saudi, Emirati Leaders Decline Calls With Biden During Ukraine Crisis – WSJ - The White House unsuccessfully tried to arrange calls between President Biden and the de facto leaders of Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates as the U.S. was working to build international support for Ukraine and contain a surge in oil prices, said Middle East and U.S. officials. Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and the U.A.E.’s Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed al Nahyan both declined U.S. requests to speak to Mr. Biden in recent weeks, the officials said, as Saudi and Emirati officials have become more vocal in recent weeks in their criticism of American policy in the Gulf. “There was some expectation of a phone call, but it didn’t happen,” said a U.S. official of the planned discussion between the Saudi Prince Mohammed and Mr. Biden. “It was part of turning on the spigot [of Saudi oil].” Mr. Biden did speak with Prince Mohammed’s 86-year-old father, King Salman, on Feb. 9, when the two men reiterated their countries’ longstanding partnership. The U.A.E.’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs said the call between Mr. Biden and Sheikh Mohammed would be rescheduled. The Saudis have signaled that their relationship with Washington has deteriorated under the Biden administration, and they want more support for their intervention in Yemen’s civil war, help with their own civilian nuclear program as Iran’s moves ahead, and legal immunity for Prince Mohammed in the U.S., Saudi officials said. The crown prince faces multiple lawsuits in the U.S., including over the killing of journalist Jamal Khashoggi in 2018.The Emiratis share Saudi concerns about the restrained U.S. response to recent missile strikes by Iran-backed Houthi militants in Yemen against the U.A.E. and Saudi Arabia, officials said. Both governments are also concerned about the revival of the Iran nuclear deal, which doesn’t address other security concerns of theirs and has entered the final stages of negotiations in recent weeks. The White House has worked to repair relations with two key Middle Eastern countries it needs on its side as oil prices push over $130 a barrel for the first time in almost 14 years. Saudi Arabia and the U.A.E. are the only two major oil producers that can pump millions of more barrels of more oil—a capacity that, if used, could help calm the crude market at a time when American gasoline prices are at high levels.

De facto leaders of Saudi Arabia, UAE refused calls with Biden -- report | The Times of Israel - The crown princes of Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates both refused to take calls with US President Joe Biden in recent weeks, the Wall Street Journal reports.The reported snubs by Riyadh’s Mohammed bin Salman and Abu Dhabi’s Mohammed bin Zayed al-Nahyan, both the de facto leaders of their countries, came as Biden was attempting to rally allies around sanctions against Russian President Vladimir Putin before he invaded Ukraine while keeping oil flowing. The two were said to have been reacting to unhappiness about Biden’s policies in the region.According to the report, both agreed to take calls with Putin. Saudi Arabia has said it is not abandoning an agreement with Russia to control oil prices, even as sanctions have sent costs at the pump rocketing to near-record highs.

Russia Set to Ban Commodity Exports Following Western Sanctions – WSJ - Russian President Vladimir Putin is banning exports of certain commodities and raw materials, according to a decree issued Tuesday evening in Moscow. The actual commodities that will be banned from export will be determined by the Russian cabinet, the decree said. Mr. Putin gave them two days to come up with a list of countries subject to the ban. The decree came hours after President Biden said that the U.S. would ban imports of Russian oil over the country’s invasion of Ukraine and the European Union said it would aim to cut imports of Russian natural gas by two-thirds this year. The U.K. government also said Tuesday it was phasing out Russian oil imports by the end of 2022 and is exploring options to end Russian gas imports altogether. Russia is the third-largest oil producer in the world and the biggest exporter of natural gas. The exports fuel Russia’s economy and the West was believed to be too dependent on them to quit easily. The invasion of Ukraine changed that dynamic. Oil prices rose following Mr. Putin’s decree. Brent-crude prices, the international benchmark, extended earlier gains to trade 5.9% higher at $130.50 a barrel, before slipping back. They remained below the high of about $139 a barrel recorded on Monday. Russia is also a major supplier of grains and metals such as aluminum, nickel and palladium. A sweeping ban on exports could upend global commodity markets. Nickel hit an all-time high today. The decree was a follow-up to earlier measures taken by the Kremlin in retaliation for Western sanctions. It described the goal of the commodity-export ban as “ensuring the security of the Russian Federation and the uninterrupted functioning of industry.” The ban will be in effect until Dec. 31, according to the decree.

Dueling Sanctions: U.S. Bans Russian Oil, Putin Halts Exports of Key Products Until Dec. 31 -- Tit-for-tat sanctions continue relative to Russia, with the latest being a U.S. executive order banning fresh energy purchases from Russia and a 45-day winding-down period for existing contracts. “Russian oil will no longer be accepted at U.S. ports,” President Biden said in a speech from the White House. “We will not be part of subsidizing Putin’s war.” Meanwhile, Russian President Vladimir Putin countered by announcing some bans of his own. The announcements came as Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy delivered an impassioned speech via video link to the British Parliament, where he received a boisterous standing ovation. There are also signs that Ukraine is willing to move on its ambition for NATO membership, but that seems to have done nothing to reduce Russian attacks. Western allies have been attempting to equip Ukraine’s thinly spread and outmatched military, some of whose soldiers are without boots. Poland said it would immediately give its fleet of Soviet-made MiG-29 jet fighters to the U.S., but the Pentagon said that would raise concerns for NATO. U.S. intelligence agency chiefs said Russia will be hard-pressed to control territory and install a pro-Moscow regime.Both Russia and China made statements regarding prioritizing certain agricultural commodities. Beijing has given the word to get coverage on as many major commodities and key inputs as it confronts a volatile trade and market atmosphere.USDA daily export sales for marketing year 2021-22:— 100,000 MT corn to Colombia and 20,000 MT soybean oil to unknown destinations..As for ag markets, wheat futures slumped by almost 5% the day after a hugely volatile session as traders assess the global supply outlook with war ravaging one of the world’s top grain-growing regions.The House early this morning reached a bipartisan deal on a $1.5 trillion fiscal year 2022 spending bill needed to avert a government shutdown. The legislation includes $13.6 billion in aid to Ukraine and European allies, and $15.6 billion in funding for Covid-19 vaccines, testing, and treatments in the U.S. and abroad. It also includes an extension of the mandatory livestock price reporting program. We have more details below.

Oil market to get even tighter on Russia disruptions, says Vitol — Global oil markets could tighten even more with Russian flows being disrupted and producers such as Libya experiencing supply problems, according to Vitol Group, the world’s biggest independent crude trader. That could push prices higher still after they soared to more than $115 a barrel in the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. “We have plenty of twists and turns to come,” Mike Muller, Vitol’s head of Asia, said Sunday on a podcast produced by Dubai-based consultant and publisher Gulf Intelligence. “While I think the world is already pricing in the fact there’ll be an inability to take in a serious amount of Russian oil in the western hemisphere, I don’t think we’ve priced in everything yet.” His views echo those of several commodity hedge funds and Wall Street banks such as Goldman Sachs Group Inc., which says oil could reach $150 in the next three months. The market could see “steeper backwardation,” Muller said, referring to a bullish pattern whereby near-term futures are more expensive than later ones because physical traders are rushing to secure supplies as soon as possible. The one-month time spread for Brent is already at the highest level of backwardation in at least a decade. Crude surged last year as global economies and energy demand rebounded from the coronavirus pandemic. It’s up another 50% in 2022. Energy exports have been exempted from U.S. and European sanctions on Moscow. But traders, shippers, insurers and banks are increasingly wary of taking on or funding purchases of Russian barrels. The country, which normally exports about 5 million barrels of crude every day, saw its Urals grade offered at record discounts last week. “It is not illegal to purchase Russian oil yet,” said Muller. “However, the means to do so are being tightened.”

Only OPEC Can Help The West Replace Russian Oil - Last week, oil and commodity markets recorded their biggest weekly gains in years as shuttering of Ukrainian ports, sanctions against Russia, and disruption in Libyan oil production sent energy, crop, and metal buyers scrambling for replacement supplies. Crude prices have spiked again this week on fears that the U.S. and its allies were seriously mulling a ban on Russian oil and gas. Well, the Russian boogeyman has not been imaginary, after all: on Tuesday, President Biden imposed an immediate ban on Russian energy imports while the United Kingdom said it would phase out imports by the end of 2022.In a speech on Tuesday, President Biden announced measures to eliminate Russian oil imports into the United States, and also addressed the U.S. oil & gas industry directly while also alluding to further conversations with producers. "To the oil and gas companies and finance firms that back them, we understand war is causing prices to rise, but it's no excuse to exercise excessive price increases ... it's no time for profiteering or price gouging. it's not true my policies are withholding production ... companies are making the decision not to drill," the president said in his speech.In 2021, the U.S. imported an average of 209,000 bpd of crude oil and 500,000 bpd of other petroleum products from Russia, according to the American Fuel and Petrochemical Manufacturers trade association. This represented 3% of US crude oil imports and 1% of the total crude oil processed by U.S. refineries. For Russia, this represented 3% of its total exports.While Biden's statement alludes to the need for more production, it does not point to a coordinated effort from the White House. At a time when the majority of U.S. producers are opting to return excess cash to shareholders, a few like Exxon Mobil are planning to significantly grow production. Exxon says it plans to increase Permian production by as much as 25% in 2022. Meanwhile, Devon Energy and Pioneer Natural Resources have indicated a willingness to increase production, with Pioneer CEO Scott Sheffield recently saying that the industry could grow production by ~1mb/d annually for three years. Sheffield went on to say his firm would participate in a coordinated effort to accelerate U.S. production growth. And now a cross-section of analysts is warning to expect even higher oil prices. Indeed, energy analysts have warned that prices could go as high as $160 or even $200 a barrel if buyers continue shunning Russian crude, leading to U.S. gas prices of more than $5 a gallon.

'There's just no way': Analysts say alternative supplies wouldn't be able to fully replace Russian oil -- While there are alternatives to Russian oil, they would be insufficient or difficult logistically if the U.S. and its allies were to ban Russian energy imports, analysts said Tuesday. "There's just no way even OPEC+ and even combined Iran and Venezuela could make up for it," Vandana Hari, founder of energy intelligence firm Vanda Insights, told CNBC's "Squawk Box Asia." Russia's war in Ukraine shows no sign of abating as the U.S. and its allies weigh banning Russian oil and natural gas imports. Oil prices spiked to highs not seen since 2008, though later pared those gains. There was also concern that Russia could retaliate by cutting natural gas supplies to Europe. Russia exports about 5 million barrels of crude oil per day, according to the International Energy Agency. Of that, Hari said about 2 million could be replaced if OPEC members Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates "were able to simultaneously stretch themselves to their maximum capacity." Hari said, however, a lot of the spare capacity within OPEC and its allies, known as OPEC+, is also Russian. The problem is OPEC+ would have to "reopen" their production quota system and it "just does not seem inclined to do anything of that sort just yet," she said. Any cuts or increases to the output of OPEC+ countries are measured against a baseline — the higher that number, the more oil a country is allowed to pump. Regina Mayor, KPMG's U.S. national sector leader of energy and natural resources, also added that OPEC+ has been "incredibly disciplined around how they return crude to the market.""There are other sources of oil supply. It's just really questionable about how quickly they can come online, the logistics of getting them to where they're actually needed," she told CNBC on Tuesday. Elsewhere, the U.S. was reportedly also in discussions with Venezuela to lift sanctions on its oil, as it sources for alternatives to Russia.But even if those sanctions were lifted, Hari said that would only free up another 100,000 barrels a day from Venezuela — "certainly nothing that would come even close to offsetting the disruption in Russian supplies."Russia is the world's third-largest oil producer after the U.S. and Saudi Arabia. It's also the biggest exporter of crude oil to global markets and the top supplier of natural gas to the European Union, about 43%.

OPEC+ output boost unlikely to come from UAE pressure alone - The United Arab Emirates will try to convince OPEC+ to increase oil output faster, but there’s little the Gulf country can do if Saudi Arabia isn’t on board. “Boosting production is not so much an OPEC discussion, it’s a Gulf discussion,” said Bill Farren-Price, a director at Enverus Intelligence Research and veteran observer of the group. “Only Saudi Arabia and UAE have meaningful spare capacity. Which is why the White House is focusing its efforts on Abu Dhabi and Riyadh.” The current agreement between the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies set out a schedule of monthly production increases -- currently 400,000 barrels a day -- all the way out until September. Doing anything different would require agreement from all other members of the group. OPEC+ delegates have said that the recent surge in prices to almost US$140 a barrel in London reflects geopolitical tensions, not the kind of supply and demand fundamentals that the producer group addresses. Saudi Arabia has rebuffed pressures from the U.S. and other consumers to pump more. The kingdom is so far prioritizing its relationship with Russia over oil market stability, said Farren-Price. Yet Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has upended the oil market in a way that OPEC+ may not be able to ignore. The UAE’s proposal was a reversal from the cartel’s last meeting, when the group avoided entirely any discussion of the growing international energy crisis. The pressure to accelerate production increases may become too strong to ignore as sanctions, a buyers strike or outright bans curb Russian oil production. The shift in the UAE’s stance, which was announced by Yousef al-Otaiba, the country’s ambassador to Washington, reflects the degree to which geopolitics are intruding into OPEC+ conversations. “The U.S. may have persuaded UAE to surge output,” said Farren-Price. “Saudi leaders look determined to win a political concession from Biden before offering up extra barrels.”

U.S. crude oil briefly tops $130 a barrel, a 13-year high on possible Western ban of Russian oil - Oil prices continued to surge in Monday morning trade as the market reacted to supply disruptions stemming from Russia's ongoing invasion of Ukraine and the possibility of a ban on Russian oil and natural gas.West Texas Intermediate crude futures, the U.S. oil benchmark, spiked nearly 9% higher to $126.05 per barrel. At one point the price rose to $130.50 Sunday evening, its highest since July 2008, before retreating.The international benchmark, Brent crude, soared 9.9% higher to $129.75. Brent hit a high of $139.13 at one point overnight, also its highest since July 2008. "Oil is rising on the prospect for a full embargo of Russian oil and products," "Already high gasoline prices are going to keep going up in a jarring fashion. Prices in some states will be pushing $5 pretty quickly."The U.S. and its allies are considering banning Russian oil and natural gas imports, Secretary of State Antony Blinken said in an interview with CNN's "State of the Union" on Sunday."We are now talking to our European partners and allies to look in a coordinated way at the prospect of banning the import of Russian oil while making sure that there is still an appropriate supply of oil on world markets," he said. "That's a very active discussion as we speak."Meanwhile, Speaker Nancy Pelosi said in a letter to Democratic colleagues on Sunday evening that the U.S. House of Representatives is "exploring strong legislation" to ban the import of Russian oil — a move which would "further isolate Russia from the global economy.""Our bill would ban the import of Russian oil and energy products into the United States, repeal normal trade relations with Russia and Belarus, and take the first step to deny Russia access to the World Trade Organization. We would also empower the Executive branch to raise tariffs on Russian imports," she wrote.While Western sanctions against Russia have so far allowed the country's energy trade to continue, most buyers are avoiding Russian products already. Sixty-six percent of Russian oil is struggling to find buyers, according to JPMorgan analysis. The U.S. average for a gallon of gas topped $4 on Sunday, according to AAA, in a rapid move due to the conflict. The underlying cost of oil accounts for more than 50% of the cost of gas that consumers put in their cars.

Hedge funds anticipate oil price spike, possible recession: Kemp - (Reuters) - Oil traders are anticipating a sharp spike in prices that will likely bring on a business cycle slowdown after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine was met by severe sanctions that are disrupting the country’s petroleum exports.Hedge funds and other money managers purchased the equivalent of 16 million barrels in the six most important petroleum futures and options contracts in the week to March 1, according to exchange and regulatory data.Portfolio managers remain strongly bullish towards petroleum, with a net long position of 731 million barrels, which lies in the 65th percentile for all weeks since 2013 (https://tmsnrt.rs/3hH1BJv).Bullish long positions outnumber bearish short ones by a ratio of almost 7:1, in the 84th percentile, but the overall position has not changed much since the middle of January.Last week’s position changes were driven primarily by the reduction of previous bearish short positions (-20 million barrels) rather than creation of new bullish long ones (-4 million barrels).The disruption to Russia’s exports caused by the invasion and sanctions has significantly increased the probability of a spike in oil prices and forced the closure of short positions.After adjusting for inflation, Brent prices are trading at the highest level since July 2014 and are in the 87th percentile for all months since 1990. If sustained, oil prices at this level are consistent with a reduction in oil demand through fuel conservation or a recessionary adjustment in the level of economic activity.  The combination of high energy prices and other disruptions to global supply chains has significantly increased the threat of a mid-cycle slowdown or an end-of-cycle recession in Europe and the United States. In response, portfolio managers sold middle distillates such as European gas oil and U.S. diesel last week for the fourth week in a row, reflecting the worsening outlook for the global economy.Middle distillates are mostly used in freight transport, passenger aviation, manufacturing and agriculture, so they are the most sensitive to changes in the business cycle and international flying. Fund managers cut their overall bullish long position in distillates to 118 million barrels last week from a peak of 144 million barrels at the start of February. If prices remain at their current level for the next few months, the probability of a recession in North America and Europe would be high, which would force oil consumption back into line with production.

Global diesel shortage raises risk of oil price spike: Kemp - (Reuters) - Global stocks of diesel and other middle distillates have fallen to the lowest seasonal level since 2008, when similar shortages of these transport and industrial fuels helped to propel oil prices to a record high. Distillate fuel oil inventories in the United States are 30 million barrels (21%) below the pre-pandemic five-year seasonal average and at the lowest level since 2005, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said. Stocks in Europe are 35 million barrels (8%) below the pre-pandemic five-year average at the lowest level since 2008, Euroilstock, which compiles inventory data on behalf of the European Union, found. And middle distillate stocks in Singapore are 4 million barrels (32%) below the pre-pandemic five-year average and also at the lowest since 2008, according to the country’s Ministry of Trade and Industry. Combined inventories across the three locations have fallen by 110 million barrels compared with the same point last year, as consumption has persistently outpaced production (https://tmsnrt.rs/37aVdIf). Demand for diesel and other middle distillates is highly geared to the economic cycle since they are mainly used in freight transportation, manufacturing, farming, mining and oil and gas extraction. The rapid rebound in economic activity after the first wave of the pandemic and associated lockdowns, and its focus on diesel-intensive manufacturing and freight, has boosted use of the fuel. At the same time, refiners have restrained crude processing to deplete the excess stocks that built up during the coronavirus recession and adapt to lower demand from passenger airlines for jet fuel. But the continued depletion of distillate inventories has become unsustainable. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the subsequent boycott of Russian fuel threatens to make diesel shortages worse (“Shell, BP halt spot German diesel sales on scarcity fears”, Reuters, March 10). Actual or potential fuel shortages have been reported in France, Germany, Hungary and Sweden (“Austria's OMV restricts Hungary fuel sales as supply fears grip Europe”, Reuters, March 11).Distillate production will have to be raised above consumption for a period to rebuild stocks to a more comfortable level. There is some scope for refiners to boost distillate output by increasing crude processing back to pre-pandemic rates but that will transform a shortage of distillate into a shortage of crude oil. Pressure to stabilise and rebuild distillate inventories will cause refiners’ crude consumption to accelerate later this year and into 2023. But the global crude market is already exceptionally tight and the extra crude demand will cause it to tighten further. The global distillate shortage is threatening to create a severe spike in oil prices just as it did in the first half of 2008.

U.S. crude oil jumps to $125 a barrel, a 13-year high on possible Western ban of Russian oil -- U.S. oil surged on Sunday evening as the market continued to weigh supply disruptions from Russia in its ongoing war with Ukraine. U.S. crude oil spikes to 13-year high of $130 overnight, then gives up most of that gain - Oil prices gave up most of their big overnight gains in a wild session, briefly dipping into negative territory after surging above $130 earlier in the session. On Sunday evening, prices jumped as trading began with the market reacting to supply disruptions stemming from Russia's ongoing invasion of Ukraine and the possibility of a ban on Russian oil and natural gas. But prices later retreated, in a move that Rebecca Babin, senior energy trader at CIBC Private Wealth, attributed to comments out of Germany that the nation is reluctant to ban Russia energy imports. "Crude is coming off the highs following comments from Germany saying they have no plans to halt Russian energy imports, indications that the US is exploring replacement barrels from Venezuela and Saudi Arabia," she said. West Texas Intermediate crude futures, the U.S. oil benchmark, at one point spiked to $130.50 Sunday evening, its highest since July 2008, before retreating. WTI futures settled up 3.2% at $119.40, the highest settle since September 2008. The international benchmark, Brent crude, settled up 4.3% at $123.21 per barrel. Brent hit a high of $139.13 at one point overnight, also its highest since July 2008. The U.S. and its allies are considering banning Russian oil and natural gas imports, Secretary of State Antony Blinken said in an interview with CNN's "State of the Union" on Sunday. "We are now talking to our European partners and allies to look in a coordinated way at the prospect of banning the import of Russian oil while making sure that there is still an appropriate supply of oil on world markets," he said. "That's a very active discussion as we speak." Meanwhile, Speaker Nancy Pelosi said in a letter to Democratic colleagues on Sunday evening that the U.S. House of Representatives is "exploring strong legislation" to ban the import of Russian oil — a move which would "further isolate Russia from the global economy." "Our bill would ban the import of Russian oil and energy products into the United States, repeal normal trade relations with Russia and Belarus, and take the first step to deny Russia access to the World Trade Organization. We would also empower the Executive branch to raise tariffs on Russian imports," she wrote. While Western sanctions against Russia have so far allowed the country's energy trade to continue, most buyers are avoiding Russian products already. Sixty-six percent of Russian oil is struggling to find buyers, according to JPMorgan analysis.

Oil Prices Break $130 As EU And U.S. Allies Consider Ban On Russian Crude -The United States has confirmed that it is in talks with European allies topotentially sanction Russian crude oil in response to Moscow's ongoing aggression in Ukraine, sending oil prices briefly above $130. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken noted on Sunday during the NBC talk show Meet the Press on Sunday, “We are now in very active discussions with our European partners about banning the import of Russian oil to our countries, while of course at the same time maintaining a steady global supply of oil."The latest considerations follow a stream of sanctions that have already had a significant impact on the Russian economy but have not yet been able to halt Putin's advance into Ukraine. European Commission President Ursula von Der Leyen has yet not fully supported the idea as of yet, though she has expressed that one of their primary goals in the sanctions that have been levied thus far is to cut Putin's funding streams. The European Commission President noted on CNN, “The goal is to isolate Russia and to make it impossible for Putin to finance his wars,” adding “For us, there is a strong strategy now to say we have to get rid of the dependency of fossil fuels from Russia.” The move, if agreed upon, has long been considered the "nuclear option" as a ban on Russian oil could weigh on global supply in an already tight market.Bank of America analysts noted that if Russia's oil is cut off, the market could face a 5 million barrel shortfall which could push oil prices to $200 per barrel.The situation is compacted by stalling talks with Iran over a potential new nuclear deal.Amrita Sen, the co-founder of Energy Aspects, a think tank, explained, "Iran was the only real bearish factor hanging over the market but if now the Iranian deal gets delayed, we could get to tank bottoms a lot quicker especially if Russian barrels remain off the market for long."

Oil Tops $130 a Barrel as Russian Attacks Escalate – WSJ - Oil buyers racing to replace Russia’ taboo crude are paying record premiums for barrels that can be delivered now rather than later, reflecting worries about adequate near-term fuel supplies and expectations that high prices will reduce consumption and encourage drilling.Prices for April deliveries of crude have shot up since Russia invaded Ukraine and buyers began shunning the aggressor’s oil exports. The main U.S. price last week topped $110 a barrel for the first time in more than a decade and in off-hours trading late Sunday, they burst above $130 following fresh attacks, mounting civilian casualties and a push by U.S. lawmakers to ban Russian oil imports. Futures contracts for delivery in subsequent months have risen as well, but not by nearly as much. When U.S. futures for delivery next month ended Wednesday at $110.60 a barrel, contracts for next March settled at $84.53. The $26.07 difference has never been greater in favor of the front month. Prices ended the week a little closer together, yet the sharp rise Sunday night in near-term futures suggests a widening gap in the week ahead. The pattern is mirrored in international markets, where the 12-month price spread on benchmark Brent crude futures also surpassed $20 a barrel last week for the first time on record and blew out even wider Sunday night when front-month futures also rose above $130. “It’s hoarding,” said RBC Capital Markets analyst Michael Tran. He points to an 83% week-over-week jump in lease rates for very large crude carriers on the Persian Gulf to Asia route as further evidence that buyers are paying whatever they must to stock up in case Russian exports dry up. “People are saying, ‘Give me as much as you’ve got, I’ll buy as much as I can,’” he said. Over nearly four decades of trading in West Texas Intermediate futures, a barrel on average has cost 40 cents more than one delivered a year later. The difference rarely exceeds $10 in either direction, and when it does, the blowout is usually related to a war, hurricane, market crash or pandemic. The widest spread on record came in April 2020, when the global economy was locking down to slow the spread of Covid-19 and front-month U.S. oil-futures prices plunged into negative territory. The worry was that fuel consumption was falling faster than oil producers couldshut off the spigots, leading to trades in which sellers effectively paid buyers to take oil off their hands. Prompt-month futures settled at negative $37.63 after one historic trading session, while contracts for barrels one year out stayed above water at $34.35, for a spread of negative $71.98. Producers eventually choked back before the world’s oil-storage facilities overflowed. Now as economies reopen, producers—from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries to Texas frackers—have been slow to meet rising demand. The imbalance has drained fuel stockpiles around the world and sparked forecasts on Wall Street for $100 oilthis summer, during peak driving season. Triple-digit oil prices arrived sooner than expected when Russian tanks rolled into Ukraine. Analysts and Wall Street strategists are upping their price forecasts even higher now that Russia’s oil exports are being treated as off-limits by many buyers. OPEC and its market allies, including Russia, have chosen to maintain the cartel’s production quotas despite surging prices. U.S. oil output has remained flat since autumn at around 11.6 million barrels a day, yet there are signs that free-market producers are ramping up to capture higher prices. There were 519 rigs drilling in the U.S. for crude last week, up from 480 at the start of the year, when oil was $76 a barrel, according to oil-field-services firm Baker Hughes Co.Allowing for time to permit and drill wells, it could be six to nine months before increased domestic drilling, even with government incentives, adds meaningful supply, Jefferies nalysts estimate. Until then—and barring diplomatic deals that would allow more oil to flow from erstwhile petro powers Venezuela and Iran—analysts say prices are likely to rise until consumers can no longer bear the expense and reduce consumption.

Brent hits $139/bbl over fears of ban on Russian oil - Global crude oil prices neared record highs in early deals on Monday after reports said that the US and European allies are looking at banning Russian oil imports following its invasion of Ukraine. Brent crude hit a high of $139.13 per barrel, before easing a bit. Around 0930am, Brent May futures on the Intercontinental Exchange traded at $128.46, up 8.76% rom previous close. The April contract of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) on the NYMEX jumped 7.47% to $124.32 a barrel. Prices soared after US Secretary of State Antony Blinken during an interview on Sunday said, “We are now talking to our European partners and allies to look in a coordinated way at the prospect of banning the import of Russian oil, while making sure that there is still an appropriate supply of oil on world markets." Rahul Kalantri, vice president, commodities, Mehta Equities, said along with concerns over a likely ban on Russian oil, delays in the potential return of Iranian crude to global markets also pushed prices higher. "Russia exports 4 million to 5 million barrels of oil daily, making it the second-largest crude exporter in the world after Saudi Arabia. We expect crude oil prices to remain firm amid geo-political tensions and rising demand," he said. International Energy Agency's (IEA) announcement on 4 March that its member countries will release 61.7 million barrels of oil, higher than the initial commitment of 60 million barrel, failed to soothe prices. IEA member countries had unanimously agreed on 1 March for an initial emergency response plan to alleviate the increasing tightness in oil markets resulting from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The incessant rise in global crude prices have lifted the Indian energy basket, comprising of Oman, Dubai and Brent crude. It was at $111.61 per barrel on 4 March, according to data from the Petroleum Planning & Analysis Cell of the Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Gas. Spiraling oil prices are a cause of concern for India as the country imports 85% of its oil demand. Although, the increase in crude oil prices has not been transferred to the consumers so far, with retail fuel prices unchanged for the over three months now on the buildup to the ongoing state assembly elections. Market experts, however, believe that with elections scheduled to end this week, retail prices of petrol and diesel will be increased going ahead. In the national capital, the retail price of petrol on Monday was ₹95.41 a litre, while diesel sold for ₹86.67 per litre.

Commodities go crazy - The news around Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is moving fast. To the extent that almost any article that one starts becomes horribly out of date by the time it’s finished.But one thing that can’t be denied is the volatility in commodity prices at the moment. This Monday morning, Brent hit almost $140-a-barrel, gold $2,000 per ounce and European natural gas €345 per megawatt hour. Wheat, palladium and tin, to name but a few, are also going parabolic.The movements come after Antony Blinken, the US secretary of state, said over the weekend that Washington was considering a ban on Russian oil imports.To get a sense of how volatile commodity markets are right now, take a look at the chart below from Deutsche Bank’s Jim Reid, based on Thomson Reuters’ core commodity index.The moves we’ve seen this morning make this, as far as commodity markets go, “the biggest week on record”, Reid says.If things remain as rocky as they have been this morning, then it will, as Reid points out, be difficult to ignore comparisons with the energy price shocks of the 1970s.Before today’s move the rolling 3-month move in this overall commodity index was at +35.9%, just below the highest ever which was the +41.9% seen in the three months to August 11th 1973 . . .... While oil hasn’t spiked by as much as in the 1970s (it more than tripled during the first oil shock from late1973), gas has increased by a much greater amount than at any point in history and the broader pace of the commodity rally is in many cases now beyond that seen in the 1970s. We should start reading up on stagflation eh?

What a ban on Russian oil may mean for an already chaotic market — Brent crude soared almost 18% to just shy of $140 a barrel at the open in Asia following news over the weekend that the U.S. and its European allies are discussing a possible ban on Russian oil exports. It’s the latest development in an eye-watering surge in prices since the invasion of Ukraine, which has thrown energy markets into disarray and has the world bracing for a major inflationary shock. Here’s what analysts are saying about the likely implications of a prohibition on Russian oil.

• S&P Global: “One of the greatest uncertainties is if and how the escalation of economic warfare between Russia and the West will impact the flow of oil and gas,” said Victor Shum, vice president at IHS Markit, under S&P Global. “NATO members currently buy more than half of the 7.5 million barrels a day of crude oil and refined products that Russia exports,” and inventories are already low in the U.S. and at record-low levels in OECD Europe and Asia, he said. “The multiple dimensions to this war will lead to unexpected disturbances and outcomes.”
• ANZ Banking Group: Around 5 million barrels a day of oil supply, both crude sent by pipeline and seaborne cargoes, could be impacted by new sanctions, Daniel Hynes, a senior commodity strategist at Australia & New Zealand Banking Group Ltd., said in an interview. “We are potentially already seeing the likely impact of those sanctions, and so this reaction could be viewed as a bit knee-jerk,” he said. Given that this is happening across the entire energy complex, Europe doesn’t have many options and is likely going to be paying a lot more for its oil and gas and other fuels over the short term, Hynes said.
• JTD Energy Services: “With the surge in geopolitical tensions, uncertainty and anxiety, it would be quite difficult to accurately gauge the top of this rally,” John Driscoll, founder of JTD Energy Services in Singapore, said in an interview. “During the 2008-2009 financial crisis, demand destruction kicked in around $150 a barrel in July 2008,” he said. “However, this spike is supply-driven and may send prices beyond that level before we settle down.”
• Vanda Insights: An embargo on Russian imports could push the energy markets into the worst chaos of our lifetimes, Vandana Hari, founder of Singapore-based Vanda Insights, said in an interview. “Nothing is fully priced in because all bets are off in this war,” she said. It is difficult to see the European Union agreeing to a ban of Russian oil imports, even if the U.S. goes ahead with this, as it would be “lights out” in Europe if Moscow retaliates, Hari said.
• Citigroup: Exports of Russian crude and gasoil are already being shunned, Citigroup Inc. analysts including Ed Morse said in the bank’s quarterly outlook for commodities. Citi’s base case is for a drop of 500,000 barrels a day of Russian production and a 60 million barrel reserves release. Its bull case sees Russian output falling by 2 million barrels a day by end-2022, with around 120 million barrels of reserves releases from the U.S. and other nations. In Citi’s super-bull scenario, Moscow will only be sending its crude to China and there won’t be a response from OPEC+. The Russia-Ukraine crisis also means there’s a high probability of multiple disruption risks including damage to pipelines and ports, higher tanker rates, export frictions and cyber-attacks, it said.

Analysis: Ukraine crisis could boost ballooning fossil fuel subsidies (Reuters) - Sky-high oil prices resulting from a potential Russian oil import ban could force governments to pour more cash into fossil fuel subsidies to shield consumers from rising energy bills, rather than use the money to fight climate change. Even before Russia's invasion of Ukraine, rising energy costs had triggered a wave of subsidies despite countries agreeing to rein them in at the COP26 climate conference in November. "The last thing that governments want to do is increase any subsidies for fossil fuel use but they have to be sensitive to the price shock," "It's an economic problem we have to deal with today." Oil has soared to around $140 a barrel as the United States and Europe weigh a Russian oil import ban as part of measures against Russia over the Ukraine crisis. Oil had already surged last year as demand rebounded from a pandemic slump and supply remained relatively tight, exacerbating multi-decade high inflation. Coal and natural gas are also near all-time highs. Governments are using tax breaks, price caps and other measures aim to help consumers to cope with the huge jump in energy prices. During the pandemic, lockdowns cut demand for fossil fuel in 2020, sending consumption subsidies worldwide to an all-time low of $180 billion - down by nearly half compared with the year before, the International Energy Agency said. But when demand and prices yo-yoed back up, so did the subsidies. The Paris-based agency projected in November that subsidies soared by the highest annual rate ever in 2021 to $440 billion, with the final figure certainly higher than that, it told Reuters. The IEA said renewables are expected to receive $42 billion in government economic recovery spending worldwide, mostly dedicated to solar energy and offshore wind.

Russia's war on Ukraine a 'defining moment' of the century, says John Kerry -Volatile energy prices are here to stay with Russia's war on Ukraine set to be a "defining moment" for this century, John Kerry, special presidential envoy for climate, said Monday at CERAWeek by S&P Global. His comments come as the Russian invasion has upended global energy markets and supply chains. Oil shot above $130 Sunday evening for the first time since 2008 and natural gas in Europe is trading at levels that have never been seen before. Kerry, who served as secretary of state during the Obama administration, said volatility is "something we're going to live with for a little while," with nations around the world having to come together to counter President Vladimir Putin's "illegal, unprovoked, profoundly dangerous" war. "People realize this is a serious moment for all of us in the world. And it's also serious, needless to say," in regards to "what's happening to our planet," Kerry said. In terms of the energy transition, companies and nations are not doing enough in the here and now, he said. Many emissions-reduction targets focus on 2050, but an emphasis on goals three decades away is misguided, Kerry said. The current decade is the critical one — only action now will achieve 2050's stated goals, he said. "You can't get there … if you don't do what you need to do between 2020 and 2030," he said. Kerry added that the Biden administration is committed to an "all of the above" approach when it comes to future energy policy.

World is facing a 'game changer' as Russia's war roils energy markets, says OPEC's Barkindo -Mohammad Barkindo, secretary general of OPEC, said Monday that in the face of skyrocketing energy prices the group's mission remains to act as a reliable supplier. He said the oil-producing alliance has "no control over current events" and that geopolitics have now taken over and are "dictating the pace of the market." Barkindo's comments, made at CERAWeek by S&P Global, come as the energy industry is roiled after Russia invaded Ukraine, prompting supply concerns and sending prices to record highs. Oil broke above $130 Sunday evening for the first time since 2008, and European natural gas prices are now trading at record highs. Still, OPEC and its allies, a group known as OPEC+, have opted to keep production steady. The group last met on March 2, deciding to stick to a previously agreed-upon schedule to increase output by 400,000 barrels per day in April. The move is part of the group's unwinding of the almost 10 million barrels per day it pulled from the market in April 2020 as the pandemic sapped demand for petroleum products. Russia, which is part of OPEC+, is one of the world's largest oil-producing nations and the world's second-largest producer of natural gas. Financial sanctions against the country by the U.S. and allies have had indirect consequences on the country's energy complex, and officials have said more sanctions could be coming. "We are facing what is likely to be a global game-changer in terms of the energy transition," he said. He added that he was hesitant to appear at CERAWeek, before saying that it's "important to keep communication lines open, especially in times of crisis like the one the world is facing today." "All we can do is to stay the course," he said.

Oil Prices Could Hit $240 This Summer - Oil prices could hit $240 per barrel this summer in the worst-case scenario if Western countries roll out sanctions on Russia’s oil exports en masse. That’s according to Rystad Energy’s head of oil markets, Bjørnar Tonhaugen, who made the statement in an extraordinary market note sent to Rigzone on Wednesday. “Market volatility is at an all-time high, with prices surging on the expectation that supply will further tighten due to restrictive sanctions on Russian energy from the West,” Tonhaugen said in the statement. “Although fortunately not the most likely scenario, traders, analysts and decision-makers alike should prepare for elevated prices based on the current landscape,” he added in the statement. “This is the largest energy crisis in decades and the impact on the world’s most important commodity is going to be unprecedented,” Tonhaugen continued. In the note, the Rystad head outlined that if more Western countries join the U.S. and impose oil embargoes on Russia, it would create a 4.3 million barrel per day hole in the market “that simply cannot be quickly replaced by other sources of supply”. “Oil prices must therefore rise to destroy sufficient demand and incentivize a supply response through higher activity – both of which happen with a time lag of several months – to rebalance the market at a higher supply/demand/price intersection,” Tonhaugen said in the note. “If 4.3 million barrels per day of Russian oil exports to the West are halted by April 2022, and where China and India only keep current import levels intact, Brent would need to spike to $240 per barrel by the summer of 2022 to destroy demand,” Tonhaugen added. Oil at $240 per barrel would curb international market demand sufficiently over the coming six months through both a direct price impact and an indirect GDP impact, the Rystad head noted. “The higher prices go, the larger the chances of the global economy entering a recession already in the fourth quarter of 2022,” Tonhaugen said. “Oil at $240 per barrel would trigger a global recession and self-destruct the price level within just a few months, after which prices would fall sharply,” he added. “In the worst potential crisis for the oil market since the 1990 Kuwait invasion by Iraq, prices may again need to double in the coming months if all western exports of Russian-associated crude is either embargoed, shunned or by other means needs to be replaced,” Tonhaugen continued. Citing an address on Russian state television, CNBC reported Wednesday that Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak warned of $300+ oil if Russian oil is rejected. In a statement sent to Rigzone on Monday, data analytics company Enverus noted that if proposed bans on oil imports from Russia in the U.S. and Europe come to fruition, $150 per barrel is not out of the question.

Oil Eases From 14-Year High After EU Repels Russian Oil Ban --Reversing a portion of overnight gains, oil futures nearest delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange and Brent crude traded on the Intercontinental Exchange settled Monday's session 3% higher after several European countries pushed back against a proposed embargo on Russian oil and gas exports -- a step that would accelerate inflation and plunge overexposed EU economies into recession. The German chancellor, Olaf Scholz, pushed back against calls to ban Russian oil and gas imports, as part of Western sanctions against Moscow over its invasion of Ukraine, warning that such a move could put Europe's energy security at risk. "Supplying Europe with energy for heat generation, mobility, electricity supply and industry cannot be secured in any other way at the moment. It is therefore of essential importance for the provision of public services and the daily lives of our citizens," said Scholz. With the European Union drawing as much as 23% of its oil imports from Russia, it could take up to a year to diversify its supplies away from Moscow and build new energy infrastructure. Much of Russia's oil imports into the EU is shipped via a vast pipeline network, including the Druzhba pipeline with capacity of 1.4 million barrels per day (bpd), that could not be quickly replaced by another supply route. European refiners imported some 1.7 million bpd of Russian crude oil via tankers last year, 85% of which consisted of Urals crude, according to data from Kpler. In terms of gas imports, Europe is using more natural gas than ever. Russia's share of total EU natural gas imports has risen from 31% in 2010 to 38% in 2020, according to Eurostat. For Russia, the move would be catastrophic for its economy, cutting a vital artery for the government and military budget. Oil and gas make up 60% of Russia's exports, accounting for nearly 20% of Russian gross domestic product and 40% of Russian government revenues. The EU is Russia's largest trading partner and accounts for nearly 40% of Russia's global trade. A series of dire forecasts have flooded media airwaves, including Russia's Energy Minister, Alexander Novak, saying oil prices would climb above $300 bbl, which would almost certainly crush the global economy. Scholz's comments come a day after U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said the United States was in talks with European allies about banning imports of Russian oil in an effort to intensify the pressure on Moscow to halt its invasion of Ukraine. For the U.S., the move could be viable since the share of Russian oil imports accounts for only 3% of total oil imports. The vast majority of U.S. imports of Russian oil, some 354,000 bpd, are of unfinished oil products, alongside small volumes of residual fuel oil and distillate fuel oil. These could be easily replaced with Venezuelan and Canadian imports of heavy grade oil. On the session, NYMEX April West Texas Intermediate rallied $3.72 or 3.8% to $119.40 barrel (bbl), and ICE Brent May contract advanced $5.10 to $123.21 bbl. NYMEX April RBOB futures gained 2.81 cents to $3.5721 gallon, and April ULSD futures spiked 14.52 cents to $3.9215 gallon.

 Saudi Arabia raises April crude prices to Asia to all-time highs – CNA - Saudi Arabia's state oil producer Aramco raised the April official selling prices (OSPs) for crude it sells to Asia by more than US$2 a barrel, with some grades hitting all-time highs, as global markets struggled with Russian oil disruption. Record Saudi crude prices come on the back of an expected rise in Middle East oil demand as surging spot premiums and freight rates put supplies from Europe, Africa and the Americas out of Asia's reach. Global oil prices have soared to their highest since 2008, adding to inflation concerns, as the United States and the European explore banning imports of Russian oil in the wake of Moscow's invasion of Ukraine. Russia calls its actions in Ukraine a "special operation". The world's top oil exporter lifted its April OSP to Asia for its flagship Arab Light crude to US$4.95 a barrel versus the average of DME Oman and Platts Dubai crude prices, up US$2.15 from March, Saudi Aramco said late on Friday. This is the highest premium for the grade ever, Refinitiv data showed. The April OSPs for Arab Medium and Arab Heavy crude in Asia are also all-time highs. "The prices are higher than expected, but (I) can understand Saudi's mindset," a trader said, adding that prices of rival grades such as Abu Dhabi's Murban crude were also at record levels. The spot premium for Murban crude futures to Dubai quotes hit a record of nearly US$18 a barrel last week while premiums for other benchmark grades such as DME Oman and Dubai were at all-time highs of US$15 a barrel. Separately, Saudi Aramco set the Arab Light OSP to Northwestern Europe at plus US$1.60 per barrel versus ICE Brent, an increase of US$1.70 compared with March and to the United States at plus US$3.45 per barrel over ASCI (Argus Sour Crude Index), an increase of US$1 over the previous month.

Oil Prices Rise Amid Fears of Russian Oil Sanctions (Reuters) - Oil prices rose on Tuesday, with Brent surging past $126 a barrel, as fears of formal sanctions against Russian oil and fuel exports spurred concerns about supply availability. Benchmark Brent crude futures for May climbed $3.07, or 2.49%, to $126.28 a barrel at 0756 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures for April delivery rose $2.29, or 1.92%, to 121.69 a barrel. Russia is the world's second-biggest oil exporter and ships out about 7 million barrels per day of crude and oil products combined. The United States, the world's biggest oil consumer, may move on its own to ban Russian oil imports following Russia's invasion of Ukraine on Feb. 24. However, Germany, the biggest buyer of Russian crude oil, has rejected plans for an energy embargo. Replacing the vast quantities of Russian fuel and oil in the market if they has raised supply concerns about oil traders, prompting the surge in prices. A senior U.S. official, speaking on condition of anonymity, told Reuters on Monday that no final decision had been made but "it is likely (to be) just the U.S. if it happens." A Russian halt to its energy exports in response to the sanctions already enacted has also pushed prices higher. Russia on Monday warned it could stop the flow of natural gas through pipelines from Russia to Germany in response to Berlin's decision last month to halt the opening of the controversial new Nord Stream 2 pipeline. If all of Russia's oil exports were blocked from global markets, analysts have said prices could rise to $200 a barrel, while Russia's deputy prime minister said oil could soar to more than $300. "There is no capacity in the world in the moment that can replace 7 million barrels of exports," Mohammad Barkindo, the Secretary General of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) told reporters at an industry conference in Houston on Monday. An apparent slowdown in talks with Iran over its nuclear programme, which would end sanctions against its oil sales, is also adding to price pressures after the European Union envoy on the talks said it was up to Iran and the U.S. to make political decisions to reach a deal. Oil supply disruptions come as inventories continue to fall worldwide. Five analysts polled by Reuters estimated on average that U.S. crude stockpiles decreased by about 800,000 barrels in the week to March 4.

Oil prices remain elevated as Russia warns to cut Europe gas supplies - Oil prices remained elevated on Tuesday after hitting a 14-year high a day earlier, as Russia has warned that it retains the option to cut natural gas supplies to Europe if the US and its EU allies ban its crude imports. As of 1300 hours GMT, Brent, the international benchmark for two-thirds of the world’s oil, gained $3.02 (+2.45 percent) to reach 126.23 a barrel. Brent hit the mark of $139.13 a barrel a day earlier before settling lower. Brent had hit a record high of $147.02 on July 11, 2008. The West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the main oil benchmark for North America, reached $121.73 a barrel, up by $2.33 (+1.95 percent). The contract hit $130.50 a barrel a day earlier. WTI had soared to its highest level of $146.90 on July 11, 2008 amid the global financial crisis. The price for Opec Basket was recorded at $113.15 a barrel with a decrease of 3.34 percent, Arab Light was available at $124.83 a barrel with an increase of 1 percent and the price of Russian Sokol jumped to $114.64 a barrel with 0.38 percent increase. Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak, who is also in charge of energy affairs, said in a televised speech on Monday that Moscow could stop the flow of gas through pipelines from the country to Germany after Berlin decided to stop the opening of the new Nord Stream 2 pipeline. “We understand that in connection with the unfounded accusations against Russia regarding the energy crisis in Europe and the imposition of a ban on Nord Stream 2, we have every right to take a mirror decision and impose an embargo on gas pumping through the Nord Stream 1 gas pipeline,” Novak said. “So far, we are not making this decision. No one will benefit from this. Although European politicians are pushing us to this with their statements and accusations against Russia,” he said. He further said that a ban on Russian crude would lead to catastrophic consequences for the global market. He added that oil prices could soar to $300 a barrel or more.

WTI Flash-Crashes After UAE Urges Increased OPEC Production, Ukraine/Russia 'Diplomacy' - The UAE will reportedly encourage its fellow members of OPEC to increase oil production levels, becoming the first OPEC member to call for the alliance to increase production since Russia invaded Ukraine, according to the Financial Times.The FT quotes Yousef al-Otaiba, the UAE's ambassador to Washington, as having said:"We favour production increases and will be encouraging Opec to consider higher production levels. The UAE has been a reliable and responsible supplier of energy to global markets for more than 50 years and believes that stability in energy markets is critical to the global economy."We suspect strongly this will make no difference whatsoever to OPEC+'s decisions in the short-term (especially given the fact that UAE refused to take Biden's calls earlier), but for now, it was enough for the algos to take crude to the lows of the day... Building on reports of Putin and Scholz discussing diplomatic solutions, and Ukraine signaling its desire for a "diplomatic solution," WTI is now down around 10%, back to one-week lows (but still notably elevated since Putin's invasion began)...OPEC+ has so far resisted calls from the White House and other major oil consumers to ramp up production faster, arguing that the recent surge in prices to almost $140 a barrel in London is driven by geopolitical tensions rather than a genuine supply shortage. However, Bloomberg reports that the last time the UAE called for a change in OPEC+ output policy was July 2021, when the country was pushing for a higher individual production quota. Saudi Arabia initially rejected the proposal and the spat threatened to break apart the alliance. Eventually a compromise was achieved.As we detailed earlier, oil prices are lower this morning on some potentially optimistic comments from Ukraine, after earlier rallying toward $127/bbl as President Biden said his nation would ban the import of Russian crude.Bloomberg's Valle notes that "fewer refined-product imports are compounding already tight inventory, particularly along the U.S. East Coast." DOE:

• Crude -1.863mm
• Cushing -585k - 9th weekly draw in a row
• Gasoline -1.405mm
• Distillates -5.23mm

Inventories tumbled across the board according to the latest official DOE data with Cushing stocks down for a 9th straight week... Distillates inventories registered a 5.23 million barrel drop last week, the biggest decline in about a year, to the lowest level since November 2014.Cushing stocks continue to drop near operational lows... Never one to miss an opportunity, Senator Elizabeth Warren has just tweeted a proposal to unleash a windfall profits tax on what she calls 'Big Oil'... Big Oil’s first priority is to maximize profits. It’s also their second priority, third priority, and on and on. We can’t let them use Putin’s invasion as an excuse to pad their bottom line with war-fueled profits. So I’m working with Senate Democrats on a windfall profits tax. — Elizabeth Warren (@ewarren) March 9, 2022 I wonder how she will deal with the fact that oil prices are suddenly plunging? And does she not see how 'taxing' oil more just screws the end-user (cough California cough) and in the case of 'windfall profits tax' will quickly be passed on to the poorest via the pump!

Oil Prices Tumble Double-Digits as UAE, Iraq Call for Higher OPEC Output -- Crude prices were down double digits on Wednesday after the United Arab Emirates’ ambassador to Washington, Yousef Al Otaiba, said in a widely-circulated statement to the media that the number two energy producer in the Gulf “favors oil production increases." The UAE “will be encouraging OPEC to consider higher production levels," Otaiba said, referring to the 13-member Saudi-led Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries. “The UAE has been a reliable and responsible supplier of energy to global markets for more than 50 years and believes that stability in energy markets is critical to the global economy,” Otaiba said. His remarks were followed by Iraq’s Oil Minister Ihsan Abdul-Jabbar Ismail who said OPEC+ will strive to achieve market balance. “If OPEC+ requires it, we can increase output,” he said, saying that the global oil producers alliance will discuss supply decisions at its next meeting in April. Brent, the global benchmark for oil, settled down $16.84, or 13.2%, at $111.14 a barrel. It was its sharpest one-day percentage drop since April 2020. U.S. crude’s West Texas Intermediate, or WTI, benchmark settled down $15, or 13%, at $108.70. Like Brent, it was also WTI’s biggest one-day percentage slump since April 2020. OPEC has been raising output by only a nominal 400,000 barrels daily for each month since last year through its pact with another 10 oil producers steered by Russia under a combined alliance known as OPEC+. That alliance is still withholding some 5 million barrels of daily supply under pandemic-era production cuts initiated in May 2020. Biden announced a U.S.-only ban on Russian oil imports on Tuesday in an action aimed at further isolating a country that on its own provides 10% of world supply. Analysts widely viewed the U.S. ban as little more than “noise." Russian oil made up 3% of U.S. consumption last year. But the UAE-sponsored boost and the UAE/Iraq plan to ask the same of OPEC could be a “game-changer of sorts,” said John Kilduff, partner at New York energy hedge fund Again Capital. “This is the music Biden has been wanting to hear from OPEC, but it could come at a political price eventually that hurts the nuclear deal with Iran,” said Kilduff. The UAE, like Saudi Arabia, is technically a U.S. ally that most recently received additional U.S. military ​defensive support to help them against Houthi threats from Yemen. But the UAE has also been calling on the United States to re-designate the Iran-backed militia on the Foreign Terror Organization list, which the White House appears unwilling to do. The demand that Tehran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corp stays off Washington’s terror list is one of those put by Iranian negotiators to the nuclear talks with world powers. The talks that have dragged on for months are at their final stages and could pave the way for the legitimate return of Iranian oil to the global export market, without the U.S. sanctions they have faced since 2018. It is not known if the Emiratis will insist on their demand for the redesignation of the IRGC as a terror group as a condition for adding meaningfully to their oil supplies.

Oil Sinks as Zelensky Signals Concessions, UAE Output Talk -- Following surging values this week into overnight trading triggered by escalating sanctions on Russia's financial and energy sectors, oil futures plummeted more than 10% on Wednesday after Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky indicated Kyiv may abandon its request for membership in the National Atlantic Treaty Organization in exchange for an immediate ceasefire ahead of peace talks between Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov and Ukrainian counterpart Dmytro Kuleba. Both ministers are scheduled to meet on Thursday in the resort city Antalya in southern Turkey for the first Cabinet-level meeting between the two countries since Russia invaded Ukraine on Feb. 24. The stakes could not be higher. Nearly two million Ukrainians have fled the country since the beginning of hostilities, several Ukrainian cities turned into rubble, and the number of civilian casualties unacceptably high for an unprovoked and asymmetrical conflict instigated by Russian President Vladimir Putin. Faced with this dire situation, Zelensky said his country is ready for a diplomatic solution and compromise regarding Ukraine's membership in NATO along with status of Crimea and breakaway republics of Donbass and Lugansk. He also added that Ukraine will require additional security guarantees from any aggression in the future. The list of Russian demands for an immediate ceasefire includes formal recognition of Crimea as part of Russia and independence of Donbass and Lugansk in eastern Ukraine. The third demand is a guarantee of neutral status for Ukraine, meaning Kyiv would never join NATO or the European Union. Putin's stated war goals were originally to "demilitarize and de-Nazify" Ukraine, both of which implied installing a pro-Russian puppet regime in Kyiv, but it now appears he's prepared to abandon both objectives. Investors are cautiously optimistic that these might be the first signs of an emerging compromise that could end a brutal conflict that has led to the worst humanitarian crisis on the European continent since World War II. Accelerating the selloff, United Arab Emirates indicated on Wednesday that the country wants to increase oil production and will encourage fellow members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries to ramp up output. If the UAE convinces partners to turn on the spigots it would mark a turnaround for the cartel policy's gradual supply increase, which at its meeting last week agreed to increase production by only 400,000 barrels per day (bpd) in April, defying expectations for a larger supply hike. Saudi Arabia and the UAE are seen as the only two members within OPEC+ that could quickly boost production without logistical challenges. Oil futures briefly trimmed losses after inventory report from the EIA that showed across-the-board draws from domestic petroleum stockpiles. Total crude and oil products supplies plunged by 8.1 million barrels (bbl) from the previous week, with 1.9 million bbl of the draw realized in commercial crude oil inventories. Oil stored at Cushing tank farm in Oklahoma, the delivery point for West Texas Intermediate fell by 585,000 bbl from the previous week to 22.2 million bbl, according to EIA. The report was also supportive for refined products, showing commercial gasoline inventories fell by 1.4 million bbl and demand for motor gasoline surged by 219,000 bpd to 8.962 million bpd -- the second highest weekly rate since the start of the year. Distillate stocks fell by 5.2 million bbl to 113.9 million bbl, and are now about 18% below the five-year average, the EIA said. On the session, NYMEX April WTI fell $15 or 12% to $108.70 bbl, and ICE Brent May contract declined $16.84 for a $111.14 bbl settlement. NYMEX April RBOB futures fell 38.88 cents to $3.2938 gallon, and April ULSD futures plunged 97.30 cents or 20% to $3.4643 gallon.

Oil prices settle lower as Russia pledges to fulfil supply contracts - Oil prices settled lower on Thursday after a volatile session, a day after its biggest daily dive in two years, as Russia pledged to fulfil contractual obligations and some traders said supply disruption concerns were overdone. Since Russia's Feb. 24 invasion of Ukraine, oil markets have been the most volatile in two years. On Wednesday, global benchmark Brent crude posted its biggest daily decline since April, 2020. Two days earlier, it hit a 14-year high at over $139 a barrel. Brent futures fell $1.81, or 1.6%, to settle at $109.33 a barrel after gaining as much as 6.5% earlier in the session. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude fell $2.68, or 2.5%, to settle at $106.02 a barrel, giving up over 5.7% of intraday gains. "I think some of the 'war angst' is coming out of the market," "We rejected $130 twice this week. People are beginning to ask if there really is too much of a supply problem. There's still plenty of Russian supply," he said. Russian President Vladimir Putin told a meeting that the country, a major energy producer which supplies a third of Europe's gas and 7% of global oil, would continue to meet its contractual obligations on energy supplies. However, oil from the world's second-largest crude exporter is being shunned over its invasion of Ukraine, and many are uncertain where replacement supply will come from. Comments from United Arab Emirates (UAE) officials sent conflicting signals, adding to the volatility. On Wednesday, Brent slumped 13% after the UAE's ambassador to Washington said his country would encourage the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries to consider higher output. UAE Energy Minister Suhail al-Mazrouei backtracked on the ambassador's statement and said the OPEC member is committed to existing agreements with the group to boost output by only 400,000 barrels per day (bpd) each month. While the UAE and Saudi Arabia have spare capacity, some other producers in the OPEC+ alliance are struggling to meet output targets because of infrastructure underinvestment in recent years. The United States made moves to ease sanctions on Venezuelan oil and efforts to seal a nuclear deal with Tehran, which could lead to increased oil supply. The market also anticipates further stockpile releases coordinated by the International Energy Agency and growing U.S. output.

Oil Edges Higher As High-level Talks To Stop War Fail -Oil prices rose on Friday after the highest-level talks between Russia and Ukraine since the start of the war failed to yield progress and Russia warned Europe of 'wave of consequences' against massive Western sanctions. U.S. President Joe Biden is set to call for an end to normal trade relations with Russia as the Senate passed a $1.5 trillion funding bill Thursday night to keep the government running through September and bolster both humanitarian and military efforts in Ukraine. Benchmark Brent crude futures rose 1.4 percent to $110.84 per barrel, while WTI crude futures were up 1.3 percent at $107.41. Login Prices were rising after the UAE took a step back from assurances it would encourage fellow OPEC members to boost their production above their agreed quotas. UAE Energy Minister Suhail al-Mazrouei backtracked on the ambassador's statement and said the OPEC member is committed to existing agreements with the group to boost output by only 400,000 barrels per day (bpd) each month.

Crudes Gain as Iran Talks Hit Snag, Russian Sanctions Bite -- Oil futures settled Friday's session higher after the United States and European partners paused negotiations on a nuclear deal with Iran, impeding sanctions relief for the Islamic Republic's oil exports, while growing pressure on Russia's economy and hostilities in neighboring Ukraine fanned concerns over further disruptions to global supply chains and deeper inflation in global economies.Talks in Vienna, Austria, addressing Iran's nuclear program that Tehran has pursued since the early 2000s broke off Friday without an agreement. The European Union's chief diplomat Joseph Borrel said "a pause" is needed in ongoing negotiations due to "external factors." While not explicitly stated, it is believed that Russia upended talks with demands to soften Western sanctions on Moscow for its invasion of Ukraine.The unexpected pause could unravel the whole deal, according to British negotiator Stephanie Al-Qaq, who called the outcome "extremely disappointing." The talks have focused on the steps the United States and Iran would take to return into compliance with the Joint Comprehensive Plan of action, which would lift most international sanctions on Iran in exchange for restrictions on Tehran's nuclear program. If oil sanctions are lifted, analysts believe Iran could quickly boost its oil exports by 700,000 barrels per day (bpd), tapping supply held in floating storage.TankerTrackers, a company which consults satellite imagery to unveil hidden loadings, assessed Iranian crude and condensate exports of 1.4 million bpd over the last two months with most of these volumes going to China.A diplomatic push to ease the sanction regime on Iranian oil comes as Russian crude shipments are being increasingly shunned by Western traders as a response to an unjustified war against Ukraine and its people. U.S. President Joe Biden announced on Friday that Russia no longer has the status of "most favored nation" -- an action that would allow new tariffs on Russian imports. Biden's action puts Moscow's trade relationship with the United States in the same category as North Korea and Cuba. Escalating sanctions and tariffs on Russia, the world's second largest oil and gas producer, are raising costs for energy and food in the United States and Europe, accelerating already overheated inflationary pressure. Markets breathed a sigh of relief midweek after the Russian government excluded energy from its sweeping export ban that prohibits trade of over 200 products and draw materials to all countries except for members states of the Eurasian Economic Union, Abkhazia, and South Ossetia. Imports of Russian energy commodities are integral to the European economy, European oil refiners, and the continent's electricity generation. The EU is Russia's largest trading partner and accounts for nearly 40% of Russia's total global trade, with about half of Russia's oil exports and 70% of their natural gas exports going to Europe. On the session, NYMEX April West Texas Intermediate rallied $3.31 to $109.33 barrel (bbl), and ICE Brent May contract advanced $3.34 to $112.67 bbl. NYMEX April RBOB futures surged 15.54 cents to $3.3121 gallon, and April ULSD futures jumped 12.14 cents to $3.4176 gallon.

Oil settles up but posts biggest weekly decline since Nov - Oil prices settled higher on Friday but posted their steepest weekly decline since November, as traders assessed potential improvements to the supply outlook that has been disrupted by Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Crude prices have soared since the invasion, which Moscow calls a "special military operation." This week, futures benchmarks hit their highest levels since 2008, then pulled back sharply as some producing countries signalled they may boost supply. On Friday, supply concerns grew when talks to revive the 2015 Iran nuclear deal faced the threat of collapse after a last-minute Russian demand forced world powers to pause negotiations. Brent crude futures rose $3.34, or 3.1%, on Friday, settling at $112.67 a barrel, after hitting a session low of $107.13. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures rose $3.31, or 3.1%, to settle at $109.33 a barrel, off the session low of $104.48. "Iran talks on hold is one factor supporting markets," said UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo, adding that "market participants will now closely track Russian export data to get a sense how much (supply) is disrupted." U.S. President Joe Biden said the G7 industrialized nations will revoke Russia's "most favored nation" trade status, and announced a U.S. ban on Russian seafood, alcohol and diamonds. The United States banned Russian oil this week. Next week, Staunovo said, the focus will shift to oil market reports from the International Energy Administration (IEA) and the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC). Both have indicated the market should be oversupplied this year. U.S. rig data from energy services firm Baker Hughes Co showed drillers added 13 oil and natural gas rigs, bringing the total to 663, the ninth increase in 10 weeks. The data is an early indicator of future output. U.S. government officials have called on domestic and global producers to ramp up output. Brent, which rose over 20% last week, was down 4.8% this week after hitting $139.13 on Monday. U.S. crude recorded a weekly drop of 5.7% after touching a high of $130.50 on Monday. Both contracts last touched these price peaks in 2008. This week, the Russia-Ukraine conflict pushed the United States and many Western oil firms to stop buying Russian oil. There was talk of potential supply additions from Iran, Venezuela and the United Arab Emirates. "We have a close eye on the pressure valves that will absorb the supply shock," said UBS head of economics Norbert Ruecker. In the near term, supply gaps are unlikely to be filled by extra output from members of the OPEC and allies, together called OPEC+, given Russia is part of the grouping, Commonwealth Bank analyst Vivek Dhar said. Some OPEC+ producers, including Angola and Nigeria, have struggled to meet production targets, limiting the group's ability to offset Russian supply losses.

Russian refineries start to feel impact of buyers shunning oil products --Russia's refineries have started feeling the effect of a sharp fall in export sales of oil products in the wake of the country's invasion of Ukraine. Rosneft's 240,000 b/d Tuapse on the Black Sea halted crude uptake March 4 because it cannot ship its production, while the company's 342,000 b/d Ryazan refinery in central Russia has reduced the volume it is accepting. While there are no sanctions on exports of Russian crude or refined oil products, limited access to credit for Russian-related deals and the fear of energy sanctions being imposed have resulted in typical buyers avoiding Russian cargoes where possible, sources said. Related story: Buyers shun Black Sea loadings of Kazakh CPC crude due to Russia-Ukraine conflict Thus, while Russian refineries have maintained normal processing rates, concerns have been rising that they would be forced to cut runs as storages become full on declining exports. Tuapse produces feedstock such as fuel oil, naphtha and vacuum gasoil for export, rather than finished-grade products. They are subsequently processed further at refineries in Europe and elsewhere and, as Portuguese Galp's CEO Andy Brown said last week, if VGO supply from Russia was disrupted, "European refiners would be in "uncharted territory". However earlier this week, Galp said it will suspend all imports of Russian oil products, in particular VGO, in response to the invasion of Ukraine. Others are following and feedstock traders have started searching for alternative supply, with refineries in the Persian Gulf and Asia seen as potential source of material, sources said. "Yes, Jazan is an alternative source but I honestly have no idea at the moment about what can be the solution to replacing the Russian barrels," one feedstock trader said. Saudi Arabia's Jazan refinery is in the process of starting up, and was running at half capacity in January. Some sources said refineries in Europe will need to increase runs in their vacuum distillation units. That said, the market will have difficulty replacing the fallout from the missing Russian volumes because there was "nowhere else to get VGO from", according to a second trader. Meanwhile, fuel oil, which despite years of upgrades in Russia, remains a significant part of refinery yields and oil product exports, has also seen typical buyers reluctant to take cargoes. "The credit issues ... are causing supply disruptions to fuel oil supply" from the Black Sea, according to a fuel oil trader. Letters of credit have been difficult to secure for Russian-origin products, according to sources. While there were still tankers fixed for lifting products from Russia's Black Sea ports, a large portion of shipping companies have stated their unwillingness to load at Russian ports, particularly in the Black Sea, amid the risk of potential new sanctions. "We are not entering into new business to or from Russian until we have further clarity on what further sanctions could be imposed," one shipowner said. However, other shipowners were prepared to capitalize on higher rates resulting from the reduced pool of available tonnage. "Under certain conditions we can still look at Russian ports," a second shipowner said. Rates for Black Sea-Mediterranean shipments, basis 30,000 mt, reached a multi-year high at Worldscale 475 on March 3.

Turkey has no plans to cut Russian oil buys, welcomes Iran supply -minister - (Reuters) - Turkey will continue to buy Russian oil and hopes sanctions on Iran are lifted, bringing additional supplies to meet global demand, Energy Minister Alparslan Bayraktar said on Tuesday. Turkey relies on Russia for 45% of its natural gas demand, 17% of oil and 40% of its gasoline, he said in remarks on the sidelines of the CERAWeek energy conference. “The world needs more oil,” he said. “It needs to come from somewhere, from the U.S., from Venezuela, from Iran, Saudi Arabia, or wherever we need it to be.” Bayraktar said Turkey could not easily replace its Russian oil supply from elsewhere, adding “they have been old, reliable suppliers”. Turkey previously imported about 200,000 bpd of Iranian crude before Washington decided in 2018 it would pull out of the 2015 Iran nuclear deal and reinstate sanctions. “All of a sudden we went down to zero,” he said. “And now we cannot have another supply disruption, this time in Russia.” Turkey is hoping Washington and Tehran will reach a deal soon that will bring Iran back into compliance with the 2015 nuclear accord. The two countries have been in talks for almost an year to restore the deal which lifted sanctions on Iran. “I hope this Iran issue will be sorted out soon,” Bayraktar said. “It will be much easier for us to cope with (supply).”

Iran Nuclear Deal Awaits Final Decision As Negotiators Return To Their Capitals - Diplomats familiar with the situation say that the Vienna talks on the Iranian nuclear deal are effectively over, and that the top Iranian negotiator has returned to Tehran for consultations, which are effectively the final decision on making the deal or not. Iran downplayed the consultations, but EU officials say that over the next few days, the real focus is on political decisions. It was a long time getting here, but a deal is within reach, finally.Exact terms aren’t clear, but its been said to be close, minus a few specifics. Details resolving concerns from Russia were one of the last issues, and it’s not clear what they did about it.US officials warn there is little time left to make a deal, while French officials say everyone needs to make a deal while they still can, and that delays could risk the position they found themselves in.Any number of things can come up and derail the talks, with things like the Ukraine War suddenly becoming an issue just because Russia is involved in the talks. There are high hopes in the US that an Iran deal could ease oil prices, something needed as they surge to medium-term highs.Everything out of the EU nations suggest they’re satisfied, and assuming nothing prevents Russia sanctions getting in the way, they and China should similarly be comfortable. That leaves the decision to Iran, which stands to benefit most from sanctions relief.Meanwhile Israel is working hard to derail the likely imminent deal. Israeli officials have at times tried to present themselves as neutral to the ongoing Iran nuclear talks, but they also regularly step up to angrily condemn diplomacy and issue calls to action.Monday was Defense Minister Benny Gantz’s turn, as he called for the world to mobilize against Iran, and said Israeli actions against Iran, including military action, would happen whether or not a nuclear deal was reached. Israeli officials have been saying that for awhile, but it may not be so easy. If Israel indeed attacks Iran unilaterally after a functioning nuclear deal is reached with the P5+1, they’d face a substantial backlash.Israel has spent decades lobbying against deals with Iran, and agitating for military action. The US has suggested they are on the eve of a deal, and while the Biden Administration has warned Israel against being too hostile to the deal, no one could be surprised at the response so far.

Russia may hold Iran nuke deal hostage over Ukraine - Before Russian President Vladimir Putin launched the largest military attack on the European continent since World War II, the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) was arguably the West’s most urgent diplomatic priority.Representatives from Iran and six world powers have in recent weeks shuttled to Vienna to regenerate the 2015 nuclear deal that was shattered when then-US president Donald Trump unilaterally withdrew from the pact and reinstated punishing sanctions against Tehran in 2018.Now, the Tehran hardliners who once berated the deal largely because it was negotiated by the moderate president Hassan Rouhani are in charge of resurrecting the pact under the ultra-conservative Ebrahim Raisi, who has made it clear since taking office last August that he is committed to diplomacy.Iran’s senior nuclear negotiator, Ali Bagheri Kani, departed Vienna for Tehran on February 23 for a “short trip” to seek final advice from top authorities on sticking points but is now on his way back to Vienna, where he will meet P4+1 (Britain, China, France and Russia along with Germany) delegates this week at his opulent 19^th-century hotel Palais Coburg residence.On Sunday, Russia’s main envoy in the talks, Mikhail Ulyanov, tweeted there was a “very high probability” of a deal within a week. That followed unusually optimistic comments from Washington that an agreement was “close.” Sticking points have prevented Tehran and Washington from resolving their differences and it’s unclear exactly how Russia’s invasion of Ukraine might influence the discussions.News reports noted Iran could possibly ramp up shipments beyond 1 million barrels a day within months of a revived accord, offering potential relief as the Ukraine conflict pushed oil above $100 a barrel. The Chinese representative, Wang Qun, has also said that the talks are at a “last stage,” telling reporters last week that interlocutors are “only a small step away from the final agreement.” European diplomats and US officials don’t share the same level of optimism, maintaining that there are fault lines that haven’t been bridged and that they risk imploding the talks altogether.

Yemen’s Houthis accept UN proposal to avert oil spill - Global Times - Yemen's Houthi movement has signed an agreement with the United Nations to deal with a decaying oil tanker threatening to spill 1.1 million barrels of crude oil off the war-torn country's coast, a Houthi official said. The Safer has been stranded off Yemen's Red Sea oil terminal of Ras Issa for more than six years, and UN officials have warned it could spill four times as much oil as the 1989 Exxon Valdez disaster off Alaska. "A memorandum of understanding has been signed with the United Nations for the Safer tanker," Mohammed Ali al-Houthi, head of the Houthi supreme revolutionary committee, said in a Twitter post late on Saturday. The Houthis, who are battling Yemen's internationally recognized government, control the area where the tanker is moored and the national oil firm that owns it. A deal had previously been reached for a technical UN team to inspect the deteriorating vessel, built in 1976, and conduct whatever repairs may be feasible, but final agreement on logistical arrangements did not materialize. No maintenance operations have been carried out on the Safer since 2015, when a Saudi-led coalition intervened in Yemen against the Iran-aligned Houthis after they ousted the internationally recognized government from the capital, Sanaa. The coalition controls the high seas off Yemen.

UN and Yemen rebels agree to transfer oil from Yemen tanker (AP) — The United Nations and Yemen’s Houthi rebels have signed a memorandum of understanding aimed at resolving the environmental threat posed by a tanker carrying more than 1 million barrels of crude oil that has been moored off the coast of the war-torn Arab nation since the 1980s, the U.N. said Monday.The FSO Safer tanker’s long-term presence in the Red Sea has raised fears of a massive oil spill or explosion that could cause an environmental catastrophe. U.N. spokesman Stephane Dujarric said the U.N. mission in Yemen “confirmed that the risk of imminent catastrophe is very real indeed, as we have been saying here for quite some time.” Under the MOU, a short-term solution would transfer the oil from the Safer to another ship, along with a longer-term solution, he said. But the MOU, dated March 5, makes clear the proposal’s implementation is contingent on mobilizing donor funds. Yemen has been convulsed by civil war since 2014, when Iranian-backed Houthi rebels took control of the capital and much of the country’s north, forcing the government to flee to the south, then to Saudi Arabia. A Saudi-led coalition entered the war in March 2015, backed by the United States and the United Arab Emirates, to try to restore President Abed Rabbo Mansour Hadi to power.

China's Xi Objects To Russian Sanctions In Summit With France And Germany --With every passing day, China is making it clear that as World Cold War 3 gets hotter by the day, the world's most populous country will not be siding with the West. During a virtual summit on Tuesday with French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, Chinese President Xi Jinping criticized sweeping sanctions against Russia while urging "maximum restraint" in Ukraine to avoid a humanitarian crisis,the Nikkei reported. Xi said that the punitive measures by the U.S., the European Union, Japan and others will "affect global finance, energy, transportation and stability of supply chains,", as reported by China Central Television. Xi warned that dragging down a world economy already burdened by the coronavirus pandemic is "in no one's interest." While China has not endorsed Russia's invasion of Ukraine, which Moscow calls a "special operation," Beijing has emphasized its solid ties with Russia and pushed back against sanctions that threaten to debilitate its economy. Xi called for dialogue on equal footing among the European Union, Russia, the U.S. and NATO. "The pressing task at the moment is to prevent the tense situation from escalating or even getting out of control," he said. China will remain in communication with France, Germany and the EU on the matter, he said. The Chinese leader continued to avoid committing Beijing to a mediator role, only praising efforts by Paris and Berlin to resolve the conflict through negotiation. Ukraine has asked China to help mediate a ceasefire. This came after Foreign Minister Wang Yi told reporters Monday that "China is prepared to continue playing a constructive role to facilitate dialogue for peace and work alongside the international community when needed to carry out necessary mediation," without providing further details. Echoing Xi's comments, this morning Chinese foreign ministry addressed the US ban of CHinese oil imports and said that China "opposes unilateral sanctions, which do not bring peace and security but only cause serious difficulties to economies and people's livelihoods in countries concerned, bring about a lose-lose situation and intensify confrontation."

Australia to ban oil, coal and gas imports from Russia in 45 days - - TASS - Australia will ban imports of Russian oil and oil products as well as gas and coal, Australian Foreign Minister Marise Payne announced on Friday."The Australian government is prohibiting the import into Australia of Russian oil, refined petroleum products, gas and coal. These energy products are Russia’s largest global source of export revenue. <...> This decision does not risk Australia’s fuel security. Australia has diverse and resilient oil supply chains, and adequate fuel supplies," Payne told the Guardian Australia, noting that Australia does not import Russian oil in large quantities and the measures it has taken "with key partners will collectively curtail Russia’s revenue".The Australian government's decision is expected to take effect in 45 days, after the country receives shipments of crude oil from Russia that have already been purchased.Earlier, it was reported that Australia's largest oil refining company Ampol had refused to buy crude oil and oil products from Russian suppliers, saying it will completely switch to raw materials from Southeast Asia, Africa, North America and the Middle East. In 2020, Australia imported A$59 million ($43 million) worth of oil and oil products from Russia.

World Bank official says war-driven oil price hikes to slash growth for big importers - (Reuters) - Persistent high oil prices prompted by Russia's invasion of Ukraine could cut a full percentage point off the growth off large oil-importing developing economies like China, Indonesia, South Africa and Turkey, a World Bank official said on Tuesday. Indermit Gill, the bank's Vice President for Equitable Growth, Finance and Institutions, said in a blog posting that the war will deal further setbacks to growth for emerging markets already lagging in recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic and struggling with a range of uncertainties from debt to inflation. "The war has aggravated those uncertainties in ways that will reverberate across the world, harming the most vulnerable people in the most fragile places," Gill said. [ read more ] "It's too soon to tell the degree to which the conflict will alter the global economic outlook." Some countries in the Middle East, Central Asia, Africa and Europe are heavily reliant on Russia and Ukraine for food, as the countries together make up more than 20% of global wheat exports. Gill said estimates from a forthcoming World Bank publication suggest that a 10% oil price increase that persists for several years can cut growth in commodity-importing developing economies by a tenth of a percentage point. Oil prices have more than doubled over the last six months. "If this lasts, oil could shave a full percentage point of growth from oil importers like China, Indonesia, South Africa, and Turkey," he said. "Before the war broke out, South Africa was expected to grow by about 2% annually in 2022 and 2023, Turkey by 2-3%, and China and Indonesia by 5%." Russia calls its actions in Ukraine a "special operation".

Now Nickel Goes Bananas, Spikes 73% in One Day, on Russia Sanctions, Shipping Chaos, Massive Short Squeeze - The price of nickel futures today spiked by over 93% intraday from Friday’s close, to just over $56,000 per metric ton at the peak, an all-time record, and then settled down a bit and is currently at $50,271 per metric ton, up by 73% in one day on the London Metals Exchange, the biggest spike in the history of the futures contract going back 35 years. Last week, nickel already jumped 19% as futures speculators reacted to the sanctions that caused banks and metals suppliers to reduce their exposure to Russia, and as shipping companies avoided Russian ports. Russia is a large producer of nickel, supplying about 6% of global demand, according to Bloomberg. Over 70% of the nickel production is used in stainless steel. And 7% goes into EV batteries, where demand is growing in leaps and bounds. But EV batteries use highly pure “Class-1” nickel, of which Russia’s MMC Norilsk Nickel PJSC produces 17% of the supply. “Liquidity deteriorated dramatically in the nickel market overnight as sellers rushed to the sidelines, leading to sharp price jumps between trades as short-position holders scrambled to buy back positions,” Bloomberg reported. Which raises another rhetorical question: Why would anyone at this time still be short any of the metals that Russia produces with all this chaos going on? “Plus, bullish investors in China are piling into nickel on the Shanghai Futures Exchange,” Bloomberg said, citing Wang Yanqing, an analyst with China Futures Co. The previous record of $51,800 per metric ton was reached in April 2007, during the mother of all nickel spikes, when the price surged from $10,000 per metric ton in October 2005 to $51,800 in April 2007, and then crashed back below $8,000 by December 2008. These commodities price spikes are madness. And they can go crazy for months, but they cannot last long term, as the 2007 episode has shown. Other commodities went bananas too, but to a slightly lesser extent today, including wheat in reaction to the chaos around the supply from Ukraine and Russia, and of course crude oil where futures of WTI spiked and briefly hit $130 overnight, before settling down a little.

Nickel Gets Even Wilder as Big Short Tests 145-Year-Old Exchange- Nickel doubled in two days to reach a record high amid a huge short squeeze that’s embroiled a major state-owned Chinese bank and encouraged rule changes from one of the world’s top commodity exchanges. The material used in stainless steel and electric-vehicle batteries surpassed $80,000 a ton, after rallying as much as 90% the day before. The market on the London Metal Exchange is in the grip of a massive squeeze in which holders of substantial short positions are being forced to cover at a time of low liquidity. Late Monday, the LME decided to allow traders to defer delivery obligations on all its main contracts -- including nickel -- in an unusual shift for a 145-year-old institution that touts itself as the “market of last resort” for metals. The LME also gave a unit of China Construction Bank Corp. extra time to pay hundreds of millions of dollars in margin calls that were due Monday, according to people familiar with the matter. Nickel was already rallying on tight supplies even before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, which has sharpened fears of sweeping commodity shortages. Higher nickel prices, if sustained, threaten to ratchet up costs for electric-vehicle batteries and complicate the energy transition. Russia produces 17% of the world’s top-grade nickel. “What we do know is that markets tend to over-react a little bit, they sometimes over-shoot,” Gavin Wendt, analyst at consultancy Mine Life Pty in Sydney said. “But in this instance, with the uncertainty of war, it’s hard to talk about a commodity being over-valued.”

Nickel Futures Spike Ridiculously, Trading Halted, in Short Squeeze on Chinese Tycoon Facing Billions in Losses - By Wolf Richter --The price of nickel futures that had spiked by 73% on Monday at the London Metals Exchange in a short squeeze whose squeezed party hadn’t been identified at the time spiked by another 100% on Tuesday intraday on the LME to over $100,000 per metric ton, when the LME halted trading at a price of $81,051.Now details emerged as to who got short-squeezed: Chinese tycoon Xiang Guangda, chairman and founder of the world’s largest nickel producer, closely-held Tsingshan Holding Group, according to Bloomberg. Xiang, forced by margin calls from his company’s broker in China, closed out part of the short position in nickel futures, and this is the result: Tsingshan’s short position on the LME is in the range of 100,000 metric tons of nickel, sources told Bloomberg. And it could be even larger when positions taken through intermediaries are taken into account, sources told Bloomberg separately.Xiang began building the short position late last year to hedge rising output, and because he thought the rally in nickel prices – they’d surged over 60% from mid-2020 to about $20,000 by late 2021 – would fade this year. Instead, the sanctions against Russia, a big nickel producer, caused prices to skyrocket further.Xiang is now considering whether to exit the short position altogether, Blomberg’s sources said. To exit the short position, he would have to buy back nickel futures at these crazy prices.At the most extreme price, the daily losses would have exceeded $2 billion on Monday, on top of the losses incurred since he started accumulating the short position.“There is so far no indication that the loss would impact Tsingshan’s ability to operate, people familiar with the matter said,” according to Bloomberg.The LME asks brokers – in this case a unit of a huge state-owned Chinese bank – to deposit cash for their clients’ short positions when prices rise. The broker then passes the margin call to its client, in this case Tsingshan Holding, which has to come up with the cash.“Tsingshan itself has been struggling to pay margin calls to its brokers, according to people familiar with the situation. It’s been under growing pressure to meet the payments in recent days,” according to Bloomberg.The LME gave the Chinese broker some extra time on Monday to collect the margin call from its client, and those payments have now been made, according to Bloomberg.The short squeeze was further exacerbated, according to traders cited by Bloomberg, by the influence of an unidentified stockpiler who controlled between 50% and 80% of nickel warehouse warrants monitored by the LME as of February. According to Bloomberg’s sources, Anglo-Swiss commodity trading and mining giant Glencore was the dominant holder of nickel in recent months.With prices of all kinds of commodities going haywire like this, there will likely be more chaos and sudden mega-losses in all directions.

Russia Bans Export of 200 Products After Suffering Sanctions Hit – Bloomberg - Russia announced an export ban for more than 200 products after the economy was hit by sanctions over the invasion of Ukraine. It stopped short of curbing sales of energy and raw materials, the country’s biggest contribution to global trade. The restrictions cover items previously imported into Russia, from medical equipment and agricultural machinery to railway cars and turbines, the government said on its website. It said the measure is “necessary to maintain stability on the Russian market.”

Can the world cope without Russia’s huge commodity stash? | The Economist - Crushing the world’s 11th-largest economy, comparable in size to Australia, should not necessarily cause global mayhem. But since the Soviet Union collapsed, the chain of dependence linking Russia to the world economy has strengthened and grown more complex. Russia ranks number one, two and three, respectively, among the world’s exporters of natural gas, oil and coal. Europe gets the bulk of its energy from its eastern neighbour. Russia also accounts for half of America’s uranium imports. It supplies a tenth of the world’s aluminium and copper, and a fifth of battery-grade nickel. Its dominance in precious metals such as palladium, key in the automotive and electronics industries, is even greater. It is also a crucial source of wheat and fertilisers. So far its exports of raw materials have been spared the kind of comprehensive bans the West has imposed on other sectors. America announced an embargo on Russian oil on March 8th, but it buys little of the stuff; Britain will phase out purchases this year. However, growing signs the West could go further have shocked commodities markets. After America’s secretary of state, Antony Blinken, said on March 6th that it was speaking to allies about a common ban, Brent crude soared to $139 a barrel, double the price of December 1st—though by March 10th it had fallen back to $113. Price swings were violent in gas too: on March 8th contracts linked to the European wholesale gas price surged by a third to €285 ($316) per mwh, 18 times their level a year ago, as Russia threatened to retaliate. On the same day, the London Metal Exchange (lme) suspended nickel trading for only the second time in its 145-year history after the metal hit double its previous record price. This week other metals hit or neared all-time highs. A shock of such depth and breadth is without precedent. A core-commodity index compiled by Thomson Reuters has risen by more than in any period since 1973, on a three-month basis. In the week ending March 4th it showed its biggest increase since at least 1956. Commodity markets are panicking for two reasons. First, many were tight even before the war, owing to strong demand. A robust post-lockdown economic recovery had fuelled appetite for energy and metals, dragging stocks down to record-low levels. Supply, which is easy to cut but takes longer to ramp up, had not caught up, says Giovanni Serio of Vitol, a big oil-trading firm. Many “midstream” facilities that had shut during covid-19, such as oil refineries, remained offline, creating bottlenecks.The second reason for worry is vanishing supply, which has been the main problem since the invasion of Ukraine. Some Russian oil is still flowing out: millions of barrels are currently crossing the Atlantic. But most of it was bought and paid for a fortnight ago or longer. Fresher supplies of Urals crude, the variety Russia pumps, are no longer moving—despite 25% price discounts. Western firms, loth to find themselves stuck with unsaleable cargo, are pre-empting possible sanctions. Many also fear a public backlash: on March 8th Shell said it would stop buying Russian oil after days of negative press coverage following a purchase of Urals crude.Particularly problematic is the lack of financing. Most foreign banks, even Chinese ones, have stopped issuing letters of credit for Russian trades. After a decade of paying steep fines for breaching sanctions against Iran and other pariahs, banks are taking no chances. Increasingly that also applies to big commodity traders like Glencore, which not that long ago still dealt with autocrats in the name of powering the planet (and pocketing profits). Many fear being cut off from bank funding, their lifeline, if they continue to deal with Russia.Problems with logistics are no less important. Unable to get insurance, foreign ships are avoiding the Black Sea. Last week Maersk and msc, which together account for a third of container operations in Russia, pulled away from the country. Britain has banned Russian ships from its ports; the eu is mulling similar measures. France has intercepted Russian ships carrying steel and soya bound for other countries.

Russia Sanctions Blowback Only Beginning: Globalization in the Crosshairs, Russian Retaliation Coming? by Yves Smith -It’s surprising that the business press has not gotten to be apocalyptic about the worst case downside of the economic war on Russia. And by that we are not including nuclear winter. Due to the fact that financial and real economy effects occur in very different time scales, we are in a phase similar to the runup to the global financial crisis, where it was clear Something Bad to Horrible was underway, yet the press and pols were largely sanguine. I gasped out loud in May 2007 when Bernanke declared that subprime was contained. The reason the blowback from the sanctions could be cataclysmic is that trying to isolate one of the biggest commodity producers in the world, with significant market share in many critical ones, will soon hit Covid-stressed supply chains. And if the economic brinksmanship isn’t dialed down soon, we’ll see tightly-coupled systems start to go critical. Because the hollowed out business press is much more fixated on finance than nitty gritty real economy operations, some bad outcomes will be noticed quickly because they affect visible companies, while others could be just as detrimental but not be picked up until the effects were advanced. And recall that the defining characteristic of a tightly coupled process is that a shock moves through the system so quickly that it can’t be interrupted (or may not be reversible at all. Mind you, that does not necessarily mean it moves quickly in clock time.Another characteristic of tightly coupled systems is that moves to reduce risk once the system is spiraling out of control are virtually assured to make matters worse, since participants don’t understand the system well enough to know how to intervene. The only measures that do help are ones that reduce the tight coupling, like trading halts.Admittedly, the Something Bad to Horrible that is now occupying center stage is the prosecution of the war itself. That plus the West’s desire to punish Russia, combined with its unwillingness to do so militarily, has led to unprecedented economic measures, like preventing Russia’s central bank from using $300 billion of its foreign exchange reserves. Even the Financial Times politely pointed out that that move would focus the minds of other central bankers. As Michael Hudson and other commentators have pointed out, this move alone is a strong impetus of the heretofore slow-moving trend for China and other major non-Western economies to move away from the dollar, which has been a powerful tool of American economic and increasingly foreign policy. So far, Russia has not imposed much in the way of counter-sanctions, although Russia-friendly websites report that Putin signed a series of measures early this week, to be announced Thursday. Since that shoe has yet to drop, we’ll go over only a few examples of how sanctions aimed at Russia are set to do a great deal of harm outside Russia. (Yes, it is theoretically possible that the US could de-escalate and swallow a peace negotiated by Ukraine, but given the press-induced blood lust and Biden Administration’s ego investment, that seems vanishingly unlikely).

China could turn to Indonesia for coal as Russian exports are disrupted, says CLSA Russia's war in Ukraine is unlikely to have a uniform effect across Southeast Asia, says Anthony Nafte of CLSA. Many economies in the region are net oil importers and are set to come under "quite a lot of pressure," Nafte told CNBC's "Street Signs Asia" on Wednesday. He noted the recent spikes in commodity prices have been "much higher" than anticipated and could be potentially prolonged. Commodity prices have surged since Russia invaded Ukraine, with oil prices hitting levels not seen since 2008. Russia is a major oil producer while Ukraine is a big exporter of other commodities such as wheat and corn. Still, Indonesia could "actually do reasonably well" in the current environment due to its commodity-driven economy, according to Nafte, who is a senior economist at CLSA. "More than 50% of their exports are derived from commodities, and now you've got a position where your commodity prices are going to stay higher for longer," Nafte said. He said, for example, Russia is currently the second largest supplier of coal to China and disruptions could push Beijing to turn to Indonesia to fill the gap. "Indonesia's going to benefit from the price effect but also in terms of volume," Nafte said. Current conditions present continued headwinds for exports and tourism, Thailand's largest economic drivers, "through the rest of the year," the economist said. "This disruption to global trade will be a big headwind for exports," he said. "In terms of the tourism revival, I think 2022 is too early. There's still going to be a lot of issues." Thailand's balance of payments also faces the "biggest vulnerability" among emerging Southeast Asian economies, he added. "They had a big current account deficit last year because of that loss of tourism revenues, and their exchange rate looks particularly vulnerable," Nafte said.

Ukraine Faces Fresh Wave of Attacks Focused on Population Centers – WSJ - Russian forces intensified strikes across Ukraine, pushing toward the capital, Kyiv, and the country’s second-largest city, Kharkiv, while killing dozens of civilians and disrupting evacuation efforts.After beating off an initial Russian offensive, Ukraine is now preparing for a second wave of Russian attacks focused on major population centers around the country, Ukraine’s national security adviser, Oleksiy Danilov, said in a social-media post Sunday.The Russian plan, he said, is to encircle Ukrainian forces and “create a situation of humanitarian disaster for the civilian population.”Officials in Kharkiv said several civilians were killed after a Russian Grad multiple-launch rocket system fired on a line outside a grocery store. Images from the scene showed at least five bodies and streaks of blood on the snow. Russian airstrikes hit the local TV station, disrupting broadcasts, as well as several residential neighborhoods and government buildings. Kharkiv officials said two Russian bomber jets were downed over the city, providing footage to corroborate their claims. Around Kyiv, Russian forces engaged in a heavy fight with Ukrainian forces northwest of the capital city, seizing parts of the town of Irpin. As thousands of civilians streamed out of Irpin,Russian shelling of the evacuation route killed eight people, local authorities said. “We will defend Kyiv at any price,” Mayor Vitali Klitschko said as he visited the city’s defenses Sunday. “The capital of Ukraine today is the outpost of freedom for all of Europe. For the second straight day, Russian shelling disrupted the planned evacuation of some 200,000 civilians from the southeastern city of Mariupol, Kyiv said. Civilians had been expected to start leaving Mariupol and nearby Volnovakha on Saturday in a deal overseen by the International Committee of the Red Cross, in an agreement that was supposed to be a test case for similar humanitarian corridors out of other Ukrainian cities.U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said Sunday he has “seen very credible reports of deliberate attacks on civilians, which would constitute a war crime.” Ukrainian and Russian negotiators are scheduled to meet for their third round of cease-fire talks on Monday, even though chances for a breakthrough were uncertain as the Kremlin signaled its determination to pursue the war. Agreements reached by Ukrainian and Russian negotiators at their previous round of talks on Thursday—to open humanitarian corridors for fleeing civilians—have yet to be implemented. In a video address Sunday, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky again urged the U.S. and allies to enforce a no-fly zone over Ukraine—something the North Atlantic Treaty Organization says it won’t do—or provide the Ukrainian air force with more jet fighters. “If you don’t do that, if you at the very least don’t give us the planes so that we can defend ourselves, there is only one conclusion: You also wish for us to be slowly killed,” he said. Mr. Blinken said the U.S. government is actively pursuing ways to address Ukraine’s request for combat jets and to replenish Poland’s arsenal should it hand over Soviet-era planes to its besieged neighbor. He also said the U.S. is talking with European partners about the prospect of banning the import of Russian oil.

Fighting in Ukraine Forces Two Million to Flee as Russia Presses Offensive – WSJ -The number of people forced to escape Ukraine has passed a milestone of two million, as the civilian toll of the Russia-Ukraine war mounted along with international efforts to press President Vladimir Putin to halt the Russian offensive. A Russian military convoy opened fire near a checkpoint in the besieged northeastern Ukrainian city of Sumy, interrupting evacuations in violation of a brokered cease-fire. In many cities, Russia continued to obstruct civilians fleeing violence by firing in their vicinity and fighting nearby established humanitarian corridors. Russia late Tuesday again proposed opening evacuation corridors for civilians from five cities including Mariupol starting at 9 a.m. Wednesday. But efforts to implement a cease-fire in the southeastern city have failed for four days running. As heavy fighting continued across the country on Day 13 of the Russian invasion, the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees said an additional one million people have been displaced inside Ukraine after fleeing their homes. Also Tuesday, Poland said it would immediately give its fleet of MiG-29 jet fighters to the U.S. at Ramstein Air Base in southwestern Germany after days of public speculation over donating the planes to Ukraine and raising the possibility of wider U.S. commitment. The Pentagon said it wasn’t clear that there was a “substantive rationale” for having Polish jets intended for Ukraine at an American air base, saying such a proposal raised concerns for the North Atlantic Treaty Organization. “We will continue to consult with Poland and our other NATO allies about this issue and the difficult logistical challenges it presents, but we do not believe Poland’s proposal is a tenable one,” Pentagon spokesman John Kirby said in a statement. As Russia pressed in on Ukraine’s capital Kyiv, Washington and its allies also looked to inflict further economic pain on Mr. Putin, who has shown no indication he would bow to global condemnation of the war that he started.

Russian-Ukraine war will 'get worse before it gets better,' Army Secretary Christine Wormuth says --Russia's invasion of Ukraine will likely continue to escalate, U.S. Army Secretary Christine Wormuth told CNBC on Wednesday. "Unfortunately, I think that this is going to get worse before it gets better, as it looks like the Russians are going to turn to some potentially brutal tactics. … If you look at what the Russians did for example in Syria, in terms of being willing to bomb civilians, bomb hospitals," she said in an interview on "Squawk on the Street," likely referring to Russia's military intervention in the Syrian civil war that started in 2015. "Or the way they approached the siege of Grozny [in 1999 and 2000], when they were fighting in Chechnya. I am concerned that that's the kind of tactics that we could see the Russian military turn to," she added. Russia has already deployed some of the attacks Wormuth said she's concerned about, including a recent airstrike on a maternity hospital in Mariupol, Ukraine, that officials say injured at least 17 people, according to The Associated Press. Russia's airstrike in Sumy left 21 civilians dead, including two children, Reuters reported, citing local authorities. The U.S. and its allies have attempted to thwart Russia's invasion of Ukraine by implementing economic sanctions. Both Canada and the U.S. announced bans on Russian oil imports. Wormuth's comments come as the House of Representatives gears up to vote on a $1.5 trillion spending bill on Friday that includes nearly $14 billion in aid to Ukraine, including toward military equipment for the country, deployments of U.S. troops to nearby nations and assistance for displaced Ukrainians. The bill includes $782 billion in defense spending and $730 billion for nondefense programs.

NATO Members Mount Huge Operation to Resupply Ukrainian Fighters – WSJ —In the space of two weeks, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has set off one of the largest and fastest arms transfers in history. By road and rail, the Czech Republic sent 10,000 rocket-propelled grenades to Ukraine’s defenders last week alone. In Poland, the provincial airport of Rzeszow located about 60 miles from the Ukrainian border has been so crowded with military cargo jets that on Saturday some flights were briefly diverted until airfield space became available. On the country’s highways, police vehicles are escorting military transport trucks to the border, with other convoys slipping into Ukraine via snow-covered back roads through the mountains. The race to deliver arms to Ukraine is emerging as a supply operation with few historical parallels. Western allies, having ruled out putting troops on the ground in Ukraine, have been attempting to equip the country’s thinly spread and outmatched military, some of its soldiers fighting without boots. With Russian warships holding the Black Sea coast, and Ukraine’s airspace contested, the U.S. is rushing to truck weapons overland before Russia chokes off the roads as well. Pentagon officials said most of what will total $350 million in arms and assistance the Biden administration pledged late last month has been delivered. Congress is considering authorizing billions more. The Defense Department has described its efforts as unprecedented. Governments once reluctant to transfer arms and antagonize Russia are joining the fray. Sweden, though historically nonaligned, has pledged 5,000 antitank weapons. Berlin—which only three weeks ago was blocking Estonia from transferring German-made howitzers to Ukraine—is now sending more than 2,000 antitank and antiaircraft weapons. Italy, long a passive player in the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, has also promised weapons, and Spain has offered grenade launchers.

Norway wealth fund's Russian investments are worthless, says CEO (Reuters) - The Russian assets of Norway's $1.3 trillion wealth fund, the world's largest, have become worthless following Russia's invasion of Ukraine and selling them as instructed by the government will take time, the fund's CEO said on Thursday. The fund held investments in Russia worth some 27 billion crowns ($3.0 billion) at the end of 2021, equivalent to 0.2% of its total value, and down from 30 billion crowns a year earlier. As of March 2, they were likely worth 2.5 billion crowns, CEO Nicolai Tangen told a news conference on Thursday, noting their exact value was "highly uncertain" given the Moscow bourse has been shut since Monday. The fund's Russian assets consisted of shares in 51 companies at the end of 2021. The most valuable stakes were in gas producer Gazprom, bank Sberbank and oil firm Lukoil, which together accounted for two-thirds of the total. All the investments were in equities, with 80% of them listed on the Moscow stock exchange, 18% in London and 0.6% in New York, a fund spokesperson told Reuters. On the morning of the invasion, on Feb. 24, the fund's leadership had an investment meeting and "decided to do very little". "We did not freeze the activity but the net activity was very little," Tangen said. On Sunday the Norwegian government ordered the fund to first freeze, and then divest its Russian assets. The ban also includes Russian stocks listed in London and New York, Tangen said.

Russia shuts itself off from the world's internet - Russia has begun to block or limit access to Western technology platforms, including Facebook and Twitter, cutting itself and its citizens off from the rest of the world's internet in drastic fashion as the Ukraine invasion intensifies and criticism increases.The moves are similar to China's lockdown on internet freedoms in recent years and it's another blow to the dream of an open, global internet."This is a fork in the road in the history of the planet," Michael McFaul, a former US ambassador to Russia and a director at Stanford's International School, said during a Friday video call with other experts held by the university.Roskomnadzor, Russia's tech and communications regulator, said Friday it had fully blocked access to Facebook, owned by the US tech giant Meta Platforms. The regulator did not specify if access would also be restricted to Instagram or WhatsApp, which are also part of Meta. Twitter has been throttled in Russia over the past week, along with Facebook, and on Friday local Russian media outlets began to report the platform was also blocked by Roskomnadzor. The company said it's "aware of reports, but we don't currently see anything significantly different from what we previously shared that would point to a block." That was back on February 26, when Twitter said its service was being restricted for some people in Russia and the company was working to keep its service "safe and accessible."YouTube went down in the country recently, sparking speculation that the world's largest video sharing platform was being blocked or throttled. Between Thursday and Friday, Roskomnadzor publicly took issue with Google and its YouTube unit, as well as TikTok, owned by China-based ByteDance.The regulator said it sent a letter to Google complaining of ads on YouTube allegedly containing "inaccurate content" with the intent of "misinforming the Russian internet audience" about the country's invasion of Ukraine. Google responded by stopping all ads in the region.

FIFA allowing foreign players to break contracts in Russia - World football's governing body has announced it will allow foreign players to break their contracts with Russian clubs amid Moscow's invasion of Ukraine. Soccer players’ union FIFPRO and the World Leagues Forum (WLF), an organization that represents world soccer leagues, asked FIFA for permission for Russian-based players to leave their clubs. "In order to facilitate the departure of foreign players and coaches from Russia," FIFA wrote, "the foreign players and coaches will have the right to unilaterally suspend their employment contracts with the FUR-affiliated clubs in question until the end of the season in Russia (30 June 2022)."FIFA’s decision will affect 100 players who currently compete for Russian clubs, according to The New York Times. Starting June 30, those players will set aside their contracts and sign with new clubs, unless they reach an agreement with their Russian clubs by March 10. In its letter to FIFA, FIFPRO general secretary Jonas Baer-Hoffmann and his WLF counterpart Jerome Perlemuter wrote that foreign players are not comfortable playing in Russia amid its invasion of Ukraine, according to The Associated Press. Russian clubs are allowed to have up to eight foreign players on their roster, also referred to as legionnaires. “These foreign players may rightfully consider that they are not willing to represent any longer a Russian team and should be able to immediately terminate their contract with their employer without facing any sanction whatsoever from international bodies and to be registered in a new club without being restricted by transfer period regulations,” the representatives wrote in their letter.

Toothless Western drama queens sanction Russian cats, ridiculous beyond imagination – Global Times CN - For some Westerners, anything could be weaponized, including cats. Yes, CATS. Amid the spiraling crisis in Ukraine, a ludicrous news story hit the headlines: Russian cats are sanctioned. The Fédération Internationale Féline, an NGO of cat registries founded in Belgium, announced on Tuesday a ban on Russian-bred cats from its shows, and cat owners who live in Russia are also banned from the organization. This is the tip of the iceberg among a growing number of drama queens in Western countries who have jumped into a so-called anti-war campaign, with their moves going far beyond people's understanding, even imagination. Cats are only one target on the very long list. FIFA and its European counterpart UEFA decided that all Russian teams shall be suspended from participating in both FIFA and UEFA competitions until further notice. Performances of Russian ballets have been canceled across the UK. University of Milan-Bicocca in Italy decided to remove courses on Fyodor Dostoevsky, a notable Russian author, from its program. Valery Gergiev, a star Russian maestro, was fired as chief conductor of the Munich Philharmonic. Turns out sports, arts, and science aren't apolitical; they all have crystal clear borders in the eyes of some Western forces. Dostoevsky died over 140 years ago, but his legacy couldn't survive the wave of the West's anti-Russia sentiment. If the trend goes on, Tetris, a puzzle video game created by a Soviet software engineer, should shiver for possibly being aimed at next. And young Western generations may have to bid adieu to the periodic table, the tabular display of the chemical elements invented by Russian chemist Dmitri Mendeleev.

What's Next, Nazi-Style Book Burning? West's 'Cancel Russia' Effort is Morally Insane, Scholars Say - 04.03.2022, Sputnik International - Sanctions against Russia over the Kremlin’s special operation to demilitarise and de-Nazify Ukraine are reportedly now accompanied by Russophobic hysteria, with children bullied, churches vandalized, sportsmen ostracized, and high-profile musicians sacked in developed Western states because they are ‘Russian.’ Can a "cancel Russia" effort succeed?"'Canceling' any country and its people, let alone one the size of Russia, is a ridiculous proposition, at least in our modern era," says Joe Quinn, an author and political analyst. "Such attempts, which come primarily from the governments of the US and Europe, are merely evidence of the feelings of impotence and anger that the leaders of those countries feel in the face of Russia standing up for its security and that of its people, and the West's inability to do anything about it." Reports of inflammatory rhetoric and anti-Russian actions have kept coming over this week. Norway's Anti-Racist Centre said it had received reports of abuse of Russian children in Norway, while a Russian Orthodox Church was vandalised in Calgary, Canada. Famous Russian conductor Valery Gergiev was forced to resign from the Munich Philharmonic orchestra after he refused to publicly condemn Russia over the Kremlin’s special military operation in Ukraine. Earlier this week, the International Paralympic Committee (IPC) banned Russian and Belarusian athletes from its Games, citing the threat of a boycott from other countries. CCM Hockey, the iconic Canadian ice hockey equipment brand, stopped using Washington Capitals star Alex Ovechkin and other Russian NHL players in its global marketing initiatives.The so-called ‘cancel Russia’ effort took a surreal turn on Thursday, when cats born on Russian soil were barred from international competitions by the International Feline Federation (FIFe). In a similar vein, the Turgenev Oak, planted according to a legend by famous Russian novelist Ivan Turgenev, was banned from the "European Tree of the Year – 2022" competition over the Russian special operation.The University of Milano-Bicocca, Italy, went further by making an attempt to remove the iconic Russian author Fyodor Dostoevsky from its syllabus, but backpedaled on its decision following a storm of criticism in Italian social media."Banning Russia from international sporting and cultural events and gatherings is a childish and pointless response to Russian actions in Ukraine," states Quinn. "It is also clear evidence of Western populations' profound ignorance about global geopolitics and their absolutely misguided faith in Western media and government messaging." "Ignorant people, weaponised by governments against the people of other nations, can be very dangerous," Quinn added, suggesting that the"lessons of Nazi Germany are more salient now than ever before."

Ukrainian neo-Nazis torture Jewish anti-war MMA athlete - Videos reportedly showing the capture and torture of Ukrainian mixed-martial arts (MMA) athlete Maxim Ryndovskiy by Ukrainian neo-Nazis have appeared on Telegram. Ryndovskiy, a three-time world medalist in the wrestling sport Sambo, is seen in the videos with a severe cut to the head while being shouted at by his kidnappers. A photo also appears of Ryndovskiy with severe injuries to his face. In both the video and picture posted to Telegram the top of Ryndovskiy's head remains covered and he was only identified through his notable tattoos, including a Jewish Star of David symbol on his left knee. Later a report appeared on the Spanish sports website Marca stating that Ryndovskiy had been shot and executed, however that claim has yet to be verified. The identity of Ryndovskiy’s kidnappers has still not been reported. Ryndovskiy apparently became a target for Ukraine's various far-right political forces after visiting the separatist-controlled Lugansk People's Republic and Donetsk People's Republic in eastern Ukraine. He had trained at a MMA gym in Chechnya along with Russian athletes prior to the Kremlin's invasion of Ukraine. In addition, he is Jewish and had posted anti-war messages to his Twitch social media channel in recent weeks further angering Ukraine's far-right political forces. The capture and torture of Ryndovskiy points to an increasingly violent political situation within Ukraine, where the country’s NATO-backed right-wing forces are now using the war with Russia to assassinate and terrorize political enemies and supposed subversives undermining Kiev’s war effort. Since the beginning of the war, several members of the pro-Russian Opposition Platform for Life Party have been threatened or arrested. The party’s leader, Viktor Medvedchuk, was forced to flee from house arrest after receiving several death threats, according to reports. Medvedchuk, who is a personal friend of Russian President Vladimir Putin, was charged with treason in May of last year. Several television stations affiliated with him were undemocratically shut down by the government of President Volodymyr Zelensky.

Anger mounts at Ukrainian security forces’ treatment of Africans fleeing war - While the US and European press present NATO intervention against the Russian war in Ukraine as a defence of democracy, anger is mounting across Africa at reports of racist targeting of Africans by Ukrainian security personnel and border guards as they try to flee the country. About 16,000 African students were studying in the country before the Russian invasion, according to Ukraine’s ambassador to South Africa.Scores of African citizens have been blocked from leaving Ukraine. France 24 interviewed several African students at the Lviv train station in western Ukraine who said they were turned back by Ukrainian border guards while attempting to cross into Poland.“They stopped us at the border and told us that Blacks were not allowed. But we could see White people going through,” Moustapha Bagui Sylla, a Guinean student, told France24. He said he fled his university residence in Kharkiv, Ukraine’s second-largest city, when the bombing began.Bagui Sylla walked for hours in freezing temperatures heading for the Polish border village of Medyka, where he was ordered to turn back. He reported that Ukrainian border guards said they were merely following instructions from their Polish counterparts. Officials in Warsaw denied the claim, however.Barlaney Mufaro Gurure, a space engineering student from Zimbabwe at Ukraine’s National Aviation University, fled Kyiv after Russia launched the military intervention on February 24. She told Al Jazeera that she had finally reached the front of a nine-hour queue at Ukraine’s western border crossing of Krakovets after an exhausting four-day trip. When her turn came to cross, the border guard blocked her and four other African students at the border for hours, giving Ukrainians priority. “We felt treated like animals. When we left [Kyiv] we were just trying to survive,” she told Al Jazeera. “We never thought that they would have treated us like that … I thought we were all equal, that we were trying to stand together,” she added. There are mounting reports, as well, that Polish far-right nationalists are attacking African, South Asian and Middle Eastern people who have crossed the Ukrainian border into Poland. In Przemyśl, attackers dressed in black tracked down groups of non-white refugees, primarily students who arrived at a train station in Poland from Ukraine after the war began. Police said three Indians were beaten up by a group of five men, leaving one of them hospitalized. “Around 7 p.m., these men started to shout and yell against groups of African and Middle Eastern refugees who were outside the train station,” reported two Polish journalists from the OKO press agency. “They yelled at them: ‘Go back to the train station! Go back to your country.’” Police and riot officers were sent after groups of men arrived chanting “Przemyśl always Polish.” “These men came and started to harass a group of men from Nigeria. They wouldn’t let an African boy go inside a place to eat some food. Then they came towards us and yelled: ‘Go back to your country.’”Polish police also warned that far-right groups are spreading false information about crimes allegedly committed by African and Middle Eastern citizens fleeing Ukraine. On Twitter, Przemyśl police said: “In the media, there is false information that serious crimes have occurred in Przemyśl and the border: burglaries, assaults and rape. It’s not true. The police did not record an increased number of crimes in connection with the situation at the border.”

Ukraine Bans Wheat & Grain Exports Vital To Global Food Supply, Citing Citizens Under Siege - Ukraine, known as the "breadbasket of Europe" given it's long been among the world's top ten wheat exporters and supplied over $6 billion in agricultural products to the European Union in 2020, has issued an emergency order Wednesday banning the export of grains and other products. The ban includes the export of wheat, oats, millet, buckwheat, sugar, live cattle, meat, and other products considered vital to the global economy. But amid wartime, and with Ukraine's government saying many of its citizens are now starving under Russian siege, Ukraine’s minister of agrarian and food policy Roman Leshchenko said the drastic action was taken to avert a "humanitarian crisis in Ukraine," stabilize the market and "meet the needs of the population in critical food products," according to the AP. World shares of Wheat exports pic.twitter.com/tk1KiCoNiR With food prices already soaring, it's expected the move could hit already struggling populations from Lebanon to Syria to Africa the hardest. "Russia and Ukraine together supply nearly a third of the world’s wheat and barley exports, which have soared in price since the invasion," the AP underscores. "The products they send are made into bread, noodles and animal feed around the world..." The United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization has listed Russia as the globe's top wheat exporter in 2020, while Ukraine was the fifth largest. China and India rival Russia's production, but both countries consume most of what they produce domestically.

FAO Food Price Index rises to record high in February - The benchmark gauge for world food prices went up in February, reaching an all-time high, led by vegetable oils and dairy products, the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) reported today. The FAO Food Price Index averaged 140.7 points in February, up 3.9 percent from January, 20.7 percent above its level a year earlier, and 3.1 points higher than reached in February 2011. The Index tracks monthly changes in the international prices of commonly-traded food commodities. The FAO Vegetable Oils Price Index led the increase, rising 8.5 percent from the previous month to reach a new record high, mostly driven by increased quotations for palm, soy and sunflower oils. The sharp increase in the vegetable price index was principally driven by sustained global import demand, which coincided with a few supply-side factors, including reduced export availabilities of palm oil from Indonesia, the world’s leading exporter, lower soybean production prospects in South America, and concerns about lower sunflower oil exports due to disruptions in the Black Sea region. The FAO Dairy Price Index averaged 6.4 percent higher in February than January, underpinned by lower-than-expected milk supplies in Western Europe and Oceania, as well as persistent import demand, especially from North Asia and the Middle East. The FAO Cereal Price Index increased 3.0 percent from the previous month, led by rising quotations for coarse grains, with international maize prices up 5.1 percent, due to a combination of continued concerns over crop conditions in South America, uncertainty about maize exports from Ukraine, and rising wheat export prices. World wheat prices increased by 2.1 percent, largely reflecting uncertainty about global supply flows from Black Sea ports. International rice prices increased by 1.1 percent, sustained by strong demand for fragrant rice from Near East Asian buyers and the appreciation of the currencies of some exporters against the U.S. dollar. The FAO Meat Price Index rose 1.1 percent from January, with international bovine meat quotations reaching a new record high amid strong global import demand and tight supplies of slaughter-ready cattle in Brazil and high demand for herd rebuilding in Australia. While pig meat prices edged up, those of ovine and poultry meat declined, in part due, respectively, to high exportable supplies in Oceania and reduced imports by China following the end of the Spring Festival. The FAO Sugar Price Index declined 1.9 percent amid favourable production prospects in major exporting countries such as India and Thailand, as well as improved growing conditions in Brazil.

Wheat Price Swings Wildly, as Food Inflation and Hunger Concerns Mount Due to Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine - David L. Stern, et al reported on the front page of today’s Washington Post that, “The desperate effort to secure safe passage for civilians trapped in Ukrainian cities under attack by Russian forces remained deeply precarious on Tuesday: A single evacuation route opened, allowing thousands to escape safely, while Ukraine accused Russia of shelling another proposed corridor.“Ukraine’s foreign ministry said the Russian military violated a cease fire by shelling an evacuation route out of the besieged city of Mariupol. It was the fourth day in a row that Ukraine has accused Moscow of firing on routes used by civilians to flee the fighting.”Bloomberg writers Megan Durisin and James Poole reported today that, “Wheat futures dropped from near a record ahead of the first global crop report that will factor in the blow to supplies wrought by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.“The U.S. Department of Agriculture’s monthly world grain report is due at noon in Washington, and could offer the first glimpse of how the war will alter worldwide food trade. The USDA will detail its latest export estimates for all major shippers.”Durisin and Poole added that, “USDA chief economist Seth Meyer said the agency will consider ‘all relevant factors impacting agricultural markets; in its supply and demand outlook later on Wednesday. Mark Jekanowski, chairman of agency’s outlook board, also told a USDA radio interview that the report would ‘absolutely’ factor in the situation in Ukraine.“‘That grain is not flowing, ports are closed,’ Jekanowski said late last week. ‘Our analysts are putting together their best analyses to try to come up with some reasonable expectation of what that means for the supplies for the rest of the marketing year.'”Dow Jones writer Kirk Maltais reported on Tuesday that, “The [wheat] selling also comes in reaction to drought conditions in U.S. regions growing winter wheat – bad timing for a smaller U.S. crop when Ukraine and Russia exports aren’t making it to market amid the fighting there.”Also this week, Bloomberg writer Irina Anghel reported that, “Grain prices are set to jump even more as war in Ukraine and sanctions on Russia upend supplies from the Black Sea region, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. said in a note Tuesday.”“Goldman increased its forecasts for corn, soybean and wheat prices. Corn could reach $7.75 per bushel by summer, while soybeans could trade at $17.5 and wheat at $12.5 per bushel,” the Bloomberg article said.Meanwhile, Jacqui Fatka reported yesterday at FarmProgress Online that, “Senate Agriculture Committee Ranking Member John Boozman, R-Ark., called on Secretary of Agriculture Tom Vilsack to delay the Conservation Reserve Program sign-up deadline and provide flexibility for farmers to purchase crop insurance to help counter the unprecedented disruption in global crop markets brought on by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.“In a letter to Vilsack, Boozman stresses flexibility should be a ‘top priority’ so that ‘millions of acres of cropland and pasture that would have otherwise remained idle’ can be farmed to ‘address both inflation and food security concerns.'” Bloomberg writers Eko Listiyorini and Anuradha Raghu reported today that, “Indonesia, the world’s biggest exporter of edible oils, will tighten its control over shipments in a sign of growing protectionism around the world as countries grapple with soaring food prices.”

Egypt to Ban Exports of Staple Foods to Safeguard Reserves - -- Egypt will ban the export of key staples, including flour, lentils and wheat, as the most-populous Arab nation moves to safeguard its food reserves amid the fallout from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.The ban, which also covers pasta and fava beans, will apply for three months from the day after it’s published in the national Gazette, the country’s trade ministry said in a statement on the state-run Ahram Gate website. Egypt imports most of its wheat from Russia and Ukraine, using those supplies as the cornerstone of a bread-subsidy program for millions of people. Soaring grain prices as the war roils international markets is putting pressure on the finances of the government, which wants to guard against profiteering.Egypt’s move adds to the wave of food protectionism worldwide, risking further tumult for global crop trade. Moldova, Serbia and Hungary have all banned exports of some grains. Indonesia, the world’s biggest edible-oils exporter, is tightening controls over shipments. Top flour exporter Turkey boosted the agriculture ministry’s authority over an array of products, allowing it to make “periodical arrangements” if needed.Egypt’s government is raising its target for purchases of local wheat to as much as 5.5 million tons, but people still need to “rationalize” their consumption, Prime Minister Mostafa Madbouly said Wednesday. He’s been meeting with ministers to review progress on keeping food stores stocked and affordable.The war has pushed up wheat-flour prices by 19% and vegetable oils by 10%, Madbouly said. Consumer inflation had already accelerated to an annual 8.8% in February, driven by higher food prices. The squeeze comes at a delicate time for the Arab world as Ramadan approaches. Russia has signaled it plans to restrict trade in some raw materials, although it has yet to specify which goods or countries will be affected. Its prime minister on Wednesday warned the country should prioritize its own wheat supplies in order to secure bread for citizens.

India signs deals to export 500,000 T wheat, as global prices surge - (Reuters) - India has signed contracts to export about 500,000 tonnes of wheat in recent days, traders said, cashing in on a sharp rally in international prices and signalling a big uptick in overseas sales from the world's second biggest producer of the grain. Traders said last week they had received inquiries from buyers seeking alternatives to Black Sea cargoes as Russia's invasion of Ukraine threatened supplies from two producers which together account for 30% of world wheat exports. read more After five consecutive record annual crops, India has large wheat inventories, and traders are keen to capitalise on any export opportunity. A high domestic price guaranteed by the government tends to deter exports unless world prices are high. "The surge in global prices has made it easier for Indian suppliers to meet the rising demand for wheat," said one dealer at a global trading firm, declining to be named because of company policy. India guarantees producers about $257 a tonne for domestic sales, while benchmark European wheat jumped above 400 euros ($435) on Monday and benchmark wheat prices in Chicago settled at their highest in 14 years. India is set to export a record 7 million tonnes of wheat this year. "The buyers, who are worried about supply disruptions from Ukraine and Russia, know that only India can be a big, steady supplier of wheat at this point of time, and that's why they have turned to India," the dealer said.

India refuses to condemn Russia over Ukraine invasion at special Quad summit - Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi refused to condemn the Russian invasion of Ukraine at a leadership summit of the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Quad) last Thursday. The meeting of the US-led quasi-military alliance of India, Japan and Australia against China was hosted by US President Joe Biden. While Japan and Australia had already fully endorsed the US-NATO war drive against Russia, Biden hoped to pressure India into publicly condemning the Russian invasion. Indian Prime Minster Narendra Modi addresses a gathering ahead of Bihar state Assembly elections in Patna, India, Wednesday, Oct. 28, 2020. (AP Photo/Aftab Alam Siddiqui) The Modi government is attempting to balance between New Delhi’s strategic partnership with Washington and its historic defence ties with Moscow. India’s ruling elite regards its strategic partnership with the US that has developed over two decades under Bharatiya Janatha Party (BJP) and Congress governments, as the best means of advancing its regional and global ambitions. India’s defence ties with Russia, however, have been a crucial factor in its foreign policy. In early February, Indian External Affairs Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar avoided making any comment on the looming Ukraine war at a Quad foreign ministers’ meeting by insisting that the Quad’s geographical area was the Indo-Pacific. Last Thursday’s summit, however, was specifically called by Biden to discuss “the war against Ukraine and its implications for the Indo-Pacific.” Prior to the summit Biden insisted that there was “no room for excuses or equivocation” on the issue. A joint statement issued after the summit declared that Quad leaders “discussed the ongoing conflict and humanitarian crisis in Ukraine and assessed its broader implications” and agreed on “a new humanitarian assistance and disaster relief mechanism which will enable the Quad to meet future humanitarian challenges in the Indo-Pacific and provide a channel for communication as they each address and respond to the crisis in Ukraine.” A separate press release issued by the India government, which is desperate to avoid taking sides in any direct military conflict between the US and Russia, said that the Quad discussed developments in Ukraine, including their “humanitarian implications,” but that Modi had “emphasised the need to return to a path of dialogue and diplomacy.” The statement added that the Quad “must remain focused on its core objective of promoting peace, stability and prosperity in the Indo-Pacific region.” New Delhi’s precarious balancing between the US and Russia, however, is becoming increasingly untenable with the rapid escalation of the conflict in the Ukraine.

India accidentally fired missile into Pakistan because of 'technical malfunction' -India said on Friday it had accidentally fired a missile into Pakistan this week because of a "technical malfunction" during routine maintenance, giving its version of events after Pakistan summoned India's envoy to protest. Military experts have in the past warned of the risk of accidents or miscalculations by the nuclear-armed neighbours, which have fought three wars and engaged in numerous smaller armed clashes, usually over the disputed territory of Kashmir.Tensions have eased in recent months, and the incident, which may have been the first of its kind, immediately raised questions about safety mechanisms."On 9 March 2022, in the course of a routine maintenance, a technical malfunction led to the accidental firing of a missile," the Indian Ministry of Defence said in a statement."It is learnt that the missile landed in an area of Pakistan. While the incident is deeply regrettable, it is also a matter of relief that there has been no loss of life due to the accident."The ministry said the government had "taken a serious view and ordered a high-level Court of Enquiry".Pakistan's foreign office summoned India's charge d'affaires in Islamabad to lodge a protest over what it called an unprovoked violation of its airspace, saying the incident could have endangered passenger flights and civilian lives.Pakistan warned India "to be mindful of the unpleasant consequences of such negligence and take effective measures to avoid the recurrence off such violations in future".Ayesha Siddiqa, an expert on military affairs and South Asian matters, tweeted that "India-Pak should be talking about risk mitigation"."Both states have remained confident about control of nuclear weapons but what if such accidents happen again & with more serious consequences?"

China's Feb PPI +8.8% y/y, CPI +0.9% y/y - (Reuters) - China’s producer prices in February rose at the slowest annual pace since June, official data showed on Wednesday, amid skyrocketing commodity prices, an uncertain global economy and resurgent domestic COVID-19 outbreaks. The producer price index (PPI) increased 8.8% on year, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) said in a statement on Wednesday, easing from 9.1% growth in January. Analysts in a Reuters poll had expected the PPI to rise 8.7%, moderating slightly from a month earlier. China’s consumer price index (CPI) inched up 0.9% in February, the data showed, unchanged from the growth in January and market expectations. China is targeting slower economic growth of around 5.5% in 2022, with the government citing multiple headwinds at home and abroad.

Turkey ends remaining pandemic measures as over 200 die every day --On Wednesday, as President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s government lifted remaining measures to prevent the spread of COVID-19, the Turkish Medical Association (TTB) and public health experts denounced this decision. Health Minister Fahrettin Koca announced the decision at a press conference after the government’s so-called “Science Board” meeting. “I would like to say that corona affects Turkey less at the moment,” he claimed, before adding, “For a while, we have announced to you that the corona was off the agenda. We removed some restrictions when we realized that the epidemic was going to be over.” Koca’s statement and the recent decisions are based not on science or protecting public health but on the profit interests of the capitalist ruling class and aim to divert public attention from continuing mass infections and deaths. While the Erdoğan government declared that “coronavirus is off the agenda,” echoing similar statements from governments worldwide, the daily official number of new cases is over 60,000, and the daily death toll has not fallen below 200 for more than a month. The total number of deaths that could have been prevented by taking necessary public health measures during the pandemic now exceeds 95,000, and excess deaths have reached 269,000, according to a calculation of Güçlü Yaman, a member of the TTB Pandemic Working Group. While political responsibility for this policy of mass infection and death lies firstly with the government, Turkey’s bourgeois opposition parties and trade unions support this policy and are also politically implicated. The government’s declaration of the “end of the pandemic” comes as Russia has invaded Ukraine, and NATO is moving towards war against Russia. Turkey risks being quickly drawn into the war: A NATO member state, it neighbors both countries and controls the straits between the Mediterranean and Black Seas. Alongside the war crisis, the Erdoğan government faces growing working class opposition to surging living costs and social inequality at home. As of February, official annual inflation reached 54 percent, while the independent Inflation Research Group (ENAGroup) announced that the real rate is 123 percent. As dozens of wildcat strikes erupted in 2022 involving about 25,000 workers, doctors and other health care workers repeatedly struck for higher wages and benefits. Health care workers are to mount a three-day nationwide strike starting March 14.

Over 600 COVID-positive students at Australian National University one week after return to campus - An outbreak at Australian National University (ANU) last month saw 12 percent—around 660—of the 5,500 students residing on campus contract COVID-19. The outbreak spiralled out of control after opening-week orientation events with students returning to campus from summer break. Situated in the Australian Capital Territory (ACT), which hosts the nation’s capital Canberra, ANU is one of Australia’s largest universities. Many of its over 21,000 enrolled students travel from around the country and internationally to study at the institution, living in cramped student accommodation. Over 200 cases had been recorded across 12 ANU residence halls over the weekend of February 19–20. By February 25, the number of positive cases had surged past 600. Throughout the outbreak, ANU management refused to give an accurate figure for the number of positive cases. ANU Chief Operating Officer Paul Duldig said face-to-face classes would continue despite the outbreak. “We don’t see any reason why case numbers in the halls will impact on us being able to teach on campus. It would really be a much broader community concern to make us reconsider that,” he told the Australian Broadcasting Corporation (ABC). After initially being moved to a dedicated quarantining facility on campus, COVID-positive students were required to self-isolate in their rooms. The university indicated that students in self-isolation would be provided with meals, medical and wellbeing support, and would attend classes online. However, reports soon emerged that isolating students were struggling to get meals delivered and have their rubbish disposed of. Third-year student Lily Hassett told the ABC during the outbreak that she was still at the residence hall and had to ask friends to bring her food. “I don't know where I’m supposed to be or what I’m supposed to be doing,” she said, adding, “Ever since I’ve tested positive I’ve tried calling the office, I’ve emailed them and got no response.” Charlotte Carnes, a senior resident at ANU’s Wamburun Hall, told the Canberra Times there was confusion over the meal deliveries process at her self-catered hall. After being told isolating students had received dinner at the same time as lunch, Carnes received calls and texts from residents at dinner time asking when meals would be delivered. The ANU Students Association reported that quarantining students struggled to find spaces in online classes and recording equipment in some classrooms was inadequate for studying remotely.

Brazil plans fuel subsidies after Petrobras warns of shortages -sources - (Reuters) - Brazil’s government is planning a subsidy programme to prevent fuel price increases linked to surging global oil prices, two government sources said, indicating the Economy Ministry has lost its battle to avoid using state funds to absorb the costs. The programme was decided after a meeting on Tuesday between top ministers to discuss Petrobras’ retail fuel pricing policy, the people said. Global crude prices have soared since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, which Moscow calls a “special operation”, lifting fuel costs and adding to double-digit inflation pressure in Latin America’s largest economy ahead of the presidential election in October. The sources, who spoke on condition of anonymity, told Reuters the state-run oil company warned there would be a risk of shortages if it did not continue to adjust its wholesale prices in line with international prices. One proposal being looked at involves the use of 27 billion reais ($5.34 billion) in subsidies, one of the people said. Petrobras is responsible for more than 80% of the nation’s refining capacity. But Brazil depends on crude oil imports that will become much more expensive, threatening the economy of a country that fundamentally depends on road transport. President Jair Bolsonaro had called on Monday for the end of a fuel pricing policy by Petrobras which is based on parity with global prices. But the sources said the company warned about possible shortages at a meeting on Tuesday, when its Chief Executive Joaquim Silva e Luna met with Brazil’s central bank chief, the ministers of energy and economy and the presidential chief of staff to discuss ways to contain fuel price hikes.

Humanity at a Crossroads: Cooperation or Extinction — Strategic Culture -If humanity is morally fit to survive the current storm, it will be due to the rectification of the fallacious rules underlying today’s geopolitics. We hold in our hands vast power to both create and destroy the likes of which has never been seen in history. Up until the turn of the 20th century, the only forces capable of wrecking extinction-level havoc onto the biosphere remained comets and asteroids travelling 18 km/second which periodically slammed into the earth every few million years. But with the discovery of atomic decay in the form of fission and also the associated processes of fusion (where lighter isotopes were found to fuse together forming heavier atoms holding masses that were slightly less than the total of the fused atoms), suddenly a new force of destruction was added to the list. After the death of Franklin Roosevelt, the top secret Manhattan Project with its three nuclear bombs was revealed to a confused Harry Truman who was quick to dump two of them onto a defeated Japan in 1945 establishing a new set of geopolitical rules that would profoundly misshape the 20th century. The 14 kiloton bomb “Little Boy” which erupted over Hiroshima killed 140 thousand people instantly, with countless tens of thousands more who died in agony during the weeks and months following the explosion. The bomb that destroyed Nagasaki days later was 23 kilotons. To put this into perspective, one modern U.S. Ohio Class Submarine travelling in the waters of China’s back yard carries 24 Trident missiles. Each Trident missile can carry up to 8 nuclear warheads and each warhead utilizing thermonuclear technology packs the equivalent of 475 kilotons of TNT. When all warheads contained on one Trident II missile are added together, a force 253 times more powerful than the bomb that annihilated Hiroshima is unleashed. Although nuclear reduction treaties established since 1991 have reduced the global nuclear stockpiles from 64,000 warheads in 1986 to approximately 20,000 today, the fact Is that over 5000 megatons of nuclear bombs ready to be unleashed still litter the face of the earth. Throughout the Cold War, scientists on both sides of the iron curtain were directed increasingly to put their creative energy towards the development of ever greater atomic weapons rather than solve world problems which for the most part was always the true purpose of science. NATO has continued to expand across Russia’s soft underbelly in total renunciation of the promises made in 1991 between U.S. delegations and their Russian counterparts. With each new member added to NATO since 1998, a policy of military containment of Russia has been advanced with ever more troops, anti-ballistic missiles and bases installed across former Soviet Nations.