Fed lifts rates a quarter point in opening bid to curb inflation - The Federal Reserve raised interest rates by a quarter percentage point and signaled hikes at all six remaining meetings this year, launching a campaign to tackle the fastest inflation in four decades even as risks to economic growth mount. Policy makers led by Chair Jerome Powell voted 8-1 to lift the benchmark rate to a target range of 0.25% to 0.5%, the first increase since 2018, after two years of holding borrowing costs near zero to insulate the economy from the pandemic. St. Louis Fed President James Bullard dissented in favor of a half-point hike, the first vote against a decision since September 2020. The hike is likely the first of several to come this year, as the Fed said it “anticipates that ongoing increases in the target range will be appropriate,” and Powell has pledged to be “nimble.”
FOMC Statement: Raise Rates 25bps --Fed Chair Powell press conference video here starting at 2:30 PM ET. FOMC Statement: Indicators of economic activity and employment have continued to strengthen. Job gains have been strong in recent months, and the unemployment rate has declined substantially. Inflation remains elevated, reflecting supply and demand imbalances related to the pandemic, higher energy prices, and broader price pressures.The invasion of Ukraine by Russia is causing tremendous human and economic hardship. The implications for the U.S. economy are highly uncertain, but in the near term the invasion and related events are likely to create additional upward pressure on inflation and weigh on economic activity.The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2 percent over the longer run. With appropriate firming in the stance of monetary policy, the Committee expects inflation to return to its 2 percent objective and the labor market to remain strong. In support of these goals, the Committee decided to raise the target range for the federal funds rate to 1/4 to 1/2 percent and anticipates that ongoing increases in the target range will be appropriate. In addition, the Committee expects to begin reducing its holdings of Treasury securities and agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities at a coming meeting.In assessing the appropriate stance of monetary policy, the Committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook. The Committee would be prepared to adjust the stance of monetary policy as appropriate if risks emerge that could impede the attainment of the Committee's goals. The Committee's assessments will take into account a wide range of information, including readings on public health, labor market conditions, inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and financial and international developments.
FOMC Projections and Press Conference --Statement here. Fed Chair Powell press conference video here starting at 2:30 PM ET.Here are the projections. In December, most participants expected three rate hikes in 2022. Now, participants expect 7 rate hikes in 2022. Wall Street forecasts are for GDP to barely increase in Q1 2022, and to be in the 2% to 3% range for 2022. This was a sharp reduction in Wall Street growth forecasts, and the FOMC lowered their 2022 forecast down significantly to similar growth rates. GDP projections of Federal Reserve Governors and Reserve Bank presidents, Change in Real GDP1 (see tables) 1 Projections of change in real GDP and inflation are from the fourth quarter of the previous year to the fourth quarter of the year indicated.The unemployment rate was at 3.8% in February. So, there was a slight reduction in the unemployment rate forecast for Q4 2022. Unemployment projections of Federal Reserve Governors and Reserve Bank presidents, Unemployment Rate: Projections for the unemployment rate are for the average civilian unemployment rate in the fourth quarter of the year indicated.As of January 2022, PCE inflation was up 6.1% from January 2021. The FOMC revised up sharply their inflation projections for 2022.Inflation projections of Federal Reserve Governors and Reserve Bank presidents, PCE Inflation1(table) PCE core inflation was up 5.2% in January year-over-year and the FOMC revised up their projections.Core Inflation projections of Federal Reserve Governors and Reserve Bank presidents, Core Inflation1
Gazillion Miles Behind the Curve, the Fed Gets Hawkish: More Rate Hikes, “Faster and Much Sooner” Quantitative Tightening - By Wolf Richter -Folks kept saying for many months that the Fed is “trapped,” that it can never raise interest rates, that it can never end QE, that it can never-ever shrink its balance sheet. And now the Fed has ended QE, and it has hiked its key policy rates by 25 basis points today, and it indicated that rate hikes are on the table at every meeting this year – seven more – and that there’s “certainly a possibility” that this might include 50-basis-point hikes, Powell said, and that the details of the balance sheet shrinkage (Quantitative Tightening) could be announced “as soon as” at the next FOMC meeting in May, Powell said, and that the balance-sheet shrinkage will be “faster and much sooner” than last time.The Fed – the most reckless Fed ever – is a gazillion miles behind the curve. CPI inflation is raging at 7.9%, not including the effects of the recent spike in energy prices. But the Fed did move today, and it moved with hawkish twists, in terms of how many rate hikes this year and next year, and how soon QT would start. The Fed today:
- Hiked by 25 basis points its target for the federal funds rate to a range between 0.25% and 0.50%. St. Louis Fed president Bullard voted against it; he wanted to hike by 50 basis points.
- Hiked the interest it pays the banks on reserves by 25 basis points, to 0.40%.
- Hiked the interest it charges on Repos by 25 basis points, to 0.50%.
- Hiked the interest it pays on Overnight Reverse Repos by 25 basis points, to 0.30%.
- Hiked the primary credit rate it charges banks by 25 basis points, to 0.50%.
- Confirmed end of QE: Decided to keep the level of assets on its balance sheet steady, and will only buy securities to replace maturing securities.
The median projections by the members of the FOMC have dramatically changed since their last meeting in December.GDP growth projections got slashed, inflation projections got jacked up, and interest rate projections more than doubled for the end of 2022.Today’s median projections vs. those from the December meeting:
- Growth in real GDP for 2020: now +2.8% (still above average growth); down from +4.0%
- PCE Inflation for 2022: now +4.3%; up from +2.6%
- Core PCE inflation for 2022: now +4.1%, up from 2.7%
- Federal funds rate by end of 2022: 1.9%, up from 0.9%
- Federal funds rate by end of 2023: 2.8%, up from 1.6%.
The “dot plot” is where members of the FOMC get to project their view of where the target range should be by the end of the year 2022, and in future years. On the dot plot today, the median projection for the federal funds rate was 1.9%, more than double from the last meeting of 0.9%.But seven of the 16 members projected the federal funds rate to be above 2.13% by year-end, with 5 of them projecting a federal funds rate between 2.38% and 3.37%. That last one must have been Bullard.“Every meeting is a live meeting,” Powell said several times during the post-meeting press conference, meaning that a rate hike is on the table at each meeting, and there are seven more meetings.When asked if there could be a 50-basis point hikes among them, he said that it was “certainly a possibility” that the Fed “will move more quickly than projected now.”The FOMC is now “finalizing details” about the balance sheet shrinkage, Powell said. More details will be outlined in the minutes, to be released in three weeks, he said. An announcement of the balance sheet shrinkage could come “as soon as” the meeting in May. But one thing is already clear: the shrinkage will be “faster and much sooner” than it was last time he said.
Why This is the Most Reckless Fed Ever, and What I Think the Fed Should Do to Reverse and Mitigate the Effects of its Policy Errors By Wolf Richter As stunningly and mindbogglingly bizarre as this sounds, it’s reality: Inflation has been spiking for over a year, getting worse and worse and worse, while the Fed denied it by saying, well, the economy is recovering, and then it denied it by saying, well, it’s just the “base effect.” And when inflation blew out after the base effect was over, the Fed said it was a “transitory” blip due to some supply chain snags. And when even the Fed acknowledged last fall that inflation had spread into services and rents, which don’t have supply chains all over China, it conceded that in fact there was an inflation problem – the infamous pivot. By which time it was too late. The “inflationary mindset,” as I called it since early 2021, had been solidly established.I’ve been screaming about it for over a year. So this isn’t what the Fed should have done – that’s a different story – but what it should do now, starting after its meeting on March 16: Start unloading the balance sheet (Quantitative Tightening) now at a rate of something like $200 billion a month, by both, allowing all maturing securities to roll off without replacement, and by selling outright the securities with the longest remaining maturities, such as 30-year bonds with 29 years left to run; they need to go first.Run QT in the foreground, with the stated and explicit purpose of driving up long-term yields. Running QT in the “background” on automatic pilot, as Powell said, is just goofy. The purpose of QT is to push up long-term yields, just as the purpose of QE was to push down long-term yields. The purpose is to steepen the yield curve while the Fed is hiking short-term rates.Specifically, sell MBS outright. MBS have maturities of 15 years and 30 years. Holders such as the Fed receive pass-through principal payments from mortgage payments and when mortgages are paid off, such as in a refi or the sale of a home. In a housing market with declining mortgage rates, refis and home sales are booming, and these pass-through principal payments turn into torrents, and the MBS on the Fed’s balance sheet would fall rapidly.Time the market with the sales of securities: Every time long-term yields decline a little, use the opportunity to sell even more securities. Any good investor trying to unload debt securities would do that. This would keep the yield curve steep.Raise short-term rates by 100 basis points on March 16, to communicate in a way that everyone would understand that the Fed is serious about ending its reputation as inflation arsonist and regaining its ruined credibility as inflation fighter. Then continue raising rates at smaller increments, such as 50 basis points at every meeting this year. That would bring its policy rate up to about 4.5% by year-end, with inflation likely over 8%.Officially abandon the “Fed put.” Let markets find their own way. Markets are good at that. Sell-offs bring a much-needed cleansing of excesses and lots of opportunities. Markets need to be allowed to function properly as markets do.Remove QE from the toolbox once and for all. QE is a destructive policy that creates wealth disparity, asset price inflation, and ultimately consumer price inflation. Its effects on the real economy are minimal. It needs to be thrown in the trash.Instead, use the Standing Repo Facilities if the Treasury market locks up. The Fed has likely for this purpose re-established the repo facilities in 2021, after shutting them down in 2008. No QE needed.Allow debt restructurings and bankruptcies to resolve excessive debtsin the economy. If companies have too much debt, they need to restructure this debt at the expense of investors. This is a healthy essential process of capitalism. For two recessions in a row, the Fed has stopped that process from playing out. Now there are huge excesses, further fueled by years of ultra-low interest rates. US laws and markets are well-suited to sort this out.
'Huge setback': Biden's climate plan for finance takes a hit -Joe Manchin has done it again. The senator from West Virginia threw a wrench yesterday into another key element of President Biden’s climate agenda. This time, it’s the nomination of Sarah Bloom Raskin to be the Federal Reserve’s top banking regulator, a role that entails monitoring emerging risks to the U.S. financial system — climate change among them. The move narrows Raskin’s chances of confirmation in the closely divided Senate. In the case that her nomination does make it out of committee and to the Senate floor, Raskin would need to win the favor of at least one Republican to make up for Manchin’s no vote. Advertisement Both the White House and Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio), who chairs the Banking Committee, say it’s still possible. White House spokesperson Chris Meagher said in a statement that Raskin is “one of the most qualified people” ever nominated to the Fed and that the Biden administration is “working to line up the bipartisan support that she deserves.” The Senate’s two most moderate Republican lawmakers — Sens. Lisa Murkowski of Alaska and Susan Collins of Maine — said last night they were not on board. “They won’t have me,” Murkowski told E&E News on whether she would offer her support to the White House. “Not this Republican, and I’d be hard-pressed to offer up anyone else. I think she is a flawed nominee.” Collins told reporters she agrees with Manchin’s belief that there is no path forward for Raskin’s nomination. Raskin, who’s held positions in academia, the Treasury Department and the Fed, has developed a reputation as a tough regulator who is attuned to emerging risks to the U.S. financial system. She’s also garnered the support of progressives — and the ire of Republicans — for her past remarks about the responsibility of financial regulators to address the economic fallout of global warming. Manchin said yesterday that he’s unable to support Raskin’s nomination to be the Fed’s vice chair for supervision because of her climate-related comments. Republicans have stalled voting on Raskin for weeks alongside four other Fed picks in the Senate Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs Committee.
Banking chairman sticking with Raskin despite Manchin opposition - Senate Banking Committee Chairman Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio) said Monday he is keeping Sarah Bloom Raskin, President Biden’s nominee to serve as vice chair of supervision, in his package of nominees to the Federal Reserve, despite the opposition of Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.). Brown said he’s going to force Manchin and Republicans to vote Raskin down on the Senate floor and won’t drop her from the package of Fed nominees that includes a new term for Chairman Jerome Powell. “Why would we not move forward? Have a vote. Vote her down if they want. Vote her up. Either way, have a vote,” Brown told reporters Monday. He is predicting Raskin can still win confirmation to the Fed, despite her controversial views about the central bank weighing the financial risks of climate change. “There are several people in play. We’re still going to confirm her,” Brown said. “We will confirm her.” He accused Raskin’s Republican critics of being “enthralled in the fossil fuel industry.” “It’s dark money. It’s typical oil company contributors to Republican senators,” he added. Brown’s stance means Biden’s other Fed nominees will remain stalled in committee until Republicans agree to a vote on Raskin or the White House withdraws her nomination. In addition to Powell, whom Biden has nominated to serve a second term as chairman, the Banking Committee is also considering Lael Brainard to serve as vice chair and Lisa Cook and Philip Jefferson to serve as governors. Republicans have kept Raskin bottled up in the committee by refusing to show up to committee meetings to vote her to the floor. Senate Majority Leader Charles Schumer (D-N.Y.) can’t discharge a nominee to the floor without a vote in committee, and the Banking panel’s rules don’t allow a vote until a quorum is present. Republicans can deny a quorum by boycotting a meeting. Brown made his comments shortly after Manchin, who’s not a member of the Banking Committee, announced he won’t support her confirmation when it comes to the floor. The loss of Manchin means Raskin would have a very tough time getting a simple majority in the 50-50 chamber. The two most likely Republicans to vote with Democrats — centrist Sens. Susan Collins (Maine) and Lisa Murkowski (Alaska) — announced Monday afternoon that they don’t support Raskin.
Sarah Bloom Raskin Withdraws Her Nomination to the Federal Reserve Board – On Tuesday, in the face of what she described as “relentless attacks by special interests” who oppose her frank acknowledgment that climate change could pose a threat to economic stability, Sarah Bloom Raskin submitted a letter to President Joe Biden withdrawing as his nominee to become the vice-chair for supervision of the Federal Reserve Board. For weeks, Raskin noted, the Republicans on the Senate Banking Committee “held hostage” not only her nomination but those of Biden’s four other picks to run the Fed, including the reappointment of its chair, Jerome Powell.In commentary last September, Bloom Raskin suggested that regulators should “ask themselves how their existing instruments can be used to incentivize a rapid, orderly, and just transition away from high-emission and biodiversity-destroying investments.” She was merely echoing the position taken by top central bankers and economists all over the world. But her expressed hope of encouraging a potential transition to cleaner energy triggered a backlash from America’s powerful oil, gas, and coal industries. Her withdrawal will likely enable the Senate’s confirmation of the rest of Biden’s slate of nominees to the Fed, at a time of roaring inflation and mounting perils abroad. But it dooms the most powerful central bank in the world to a state of willful blindness regarding the looming chaos that scientists predict climate change will unleash.Bloom Raskin’s fate was sealed on Monday, when Joe Manchin, the Democratic senator from West Virginia, signalled that he would oppose her confirmation because she “failed to satisfactorily address my concerns about the critical importance of financing an all-of-the-above energy policy to meet our nation’s critical energy needs.” Manchin’s family fortune is largely derived from coal, and he has taken more money from fossil-fuel interests than any other senator during the current cycle. Every Republican member of the Senate Banking Committee has also taken money from fossil-fuel interests, cumulatively accepting more than eight million dollars during their political careers from the producers of the carbon emissions that are helping to cause climate change. Given Democrats’ single-vote advantage in the Senate, Manchin’s opposition has all but killed the Bloom Raskin nomination, relegating her to having to find a Republican vote, which seemed especially unlikely after Susan Collins, of Maine, also signalled her opposition on Monday. Bloom Raskin, who is a law professor at Duke University, is not a new or untested figure on the national economic stage. She was unanimously confirmed by the Senate to top economic positions twice before, serving a term as a member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve, from 2010 to 2014, and as Deputy Secretary of the Treasury during the Obama Administration. Her previous nomination to the Fed’s Board of Governors had wide support from the banking industry. But, in her letter to Biden, she noted that the difference this time was that “my frank public discussion of climate change and the economic costs associated with it” had become a point of contention with the Republicans on the Banking Committee: “It was—and is—my considered view that the perils of climate change must be added to the list of serious risks that the Federal Reserve considers as it works to ensure the stability and resiliency of our economy and financial system.” (The full text of Bloom Raskin’s letter is below.)
Can Biden get a Fed climate candidate past Joe Manchin? - Sen. Joe Manchin has turned into a real headache for President Biden on climate. The latest example came this week when the West Virginia Democrat torpedoed the nomination of Sarah Bloom Raskin for the Federal Reserve. Biden wanted Raskin, a climate-savvy financial regulator, to serve as the Fed’s top bank cop, but Manchin disagreed — effectively killing her chances in the narrowly divided Senate and forcing Raskin to withdraw her nomination. Now the White House has to go back to the drawing board to fill the role, which has been vacant for months and is responsible for reining in big banks and monitoring emerging threats to the U.S. financial system. Tapping someone new for the Federal Reserve post won’t be easy. Observers say Biden’s major challenge will be finding a candidate who is attuned to the risks of climate change but still can survive a confirmation battle in the Senate. The Senate already has blocked two Biden nominees in part because of their views on the financial threats of global warming. “There’s no margin for error,” said Sarah Binder, a professor at George Washington University who focuses on the Fed’s relationship with Congress. Indeed, in explaining his opposition to Raskin, Manchin signaled that he wanted someone who embraces an “all-of-the-above energy policy.” Also critical to him: controlling inflation, ensuring stable prices and encouraging maximum employment. “I will not support any future nominee that does not respect those critical priorities,” Manchin said in a statement. The setback on Raskin is a major development because it leaves the Federal Reserve without a qualified nominee in the pipeline who would be responsible for overseeing the regulation and supervision of the nation’s biggest banks. The last person to hold the role was Randal Quarles, a Republican appointed by former President Trump whose term ended in October.
Powell: Fed 'making do' without regulatory committee, vice chair - While, the Federal Reserve’s supervision and regulation committee is no longer active, the Board of Governors is still fulfilling its regulatory oversight role directly, acting Chairman Jerome Powell said Wednesday. "We have an obligation to carry out under the law in supervision and regulation, and we're doing that, that's what we're doing,” Powell said. Powell said during the Federal Open Market Committee press conference that essential tasks such as approving this year's stress tests and reviewing bank mergers for antitrust violations have gone directly before the board as a whole.
Oil prices and inflation - Econbrowser by Dr. James_Hamilton - The price of oil has doubled from its value a year ago and could increase much more if there are significant reductions in the quantity of Russian oil that reaches world refineries. This is the first in a series of two posts on what these events could mean for the U.S. economy. Today I focus on the implications for inflation, and in a follow-up post I will discuss implications for real GDP. Oil prices had already risen quite dramatically before there was any indication of Russia’s intention to invade Ukraine. The factors behind this earlier run-up were similar to the causes behind the surge in many other prices: demand recovered more quickly than production. The figure below plots an estimate of monthly U.S. gasoline consumption. The usual seasonal pattern was highly disrupted by COVID. But by December, U.S. gasoline consumption had returned to the level of December 2019. In the absence of a big increase in gasoline prices, I would have expected a strong seasonal surge in gasoline demand this spring and summer.The same pattern is seen in estimates based on counts of vehicles on the road of the number of miles Americans are driving. This is up 2.5% compared to two years ago.While demand may have returned to pre-COVID levels, supply has not. Even before any of the developments in Ukraine, world production of crude oil in November was 3.3 mb/d lower than its level at the start of 2020. The U.S. supplied a sixth of the world total pre-COVID crude production, but accounts for almost a third of today’s world shortfall relative to pre-COVID. U.S. production is still 1 mb/d below where it had been at the start of 2020. A big part of the story is that it is easier to tear something down than it is to put it back together. The negative oil prices in April 2020 marked a definitive end to some of the enthusiasm for U.S. shale oil production and was followed by a collapse of lending and drilling. Higher oil prices have been gradually but steadily bringing resources back in. That process would continue even without the recent prices over a hundred dollars a barrel, but it takes time. Perhaps by the end of summer U.S. production would be back where it was at the start of 2020. Demand grew faster than supply, and that caused the price of oil to go up. Some economists argue that this does not necessarily mean more inflation. If the increase in the dollar price of oil was matched by a decrease in the dollar price of other goods or services, we need not see inflation in the overall price level. But in practice it often takes unusual events to cause the prices of many goods and services to actually fall. If oil prices go up and other prices don’t go down, it means overall inflation. In 2019, U.S. production and imports of crude oil had a market value equal to about 2% of GDP. That suggests a quick-and-dirty rule for getting an approximate answer to the above what-if question. If we multiply the percent change in the price of crude by 0.02, that should give us a rough idea of what inflation would have been if the change in the price of crude oil was the only source of inflation. This is consistent with the rough rule of thumb used by Fed Chair Jerome Powell that a $10 increase in the price of oil (about a 10% increase at current prices) leads to a 0.2% increase in inflation. I used that approximation in the figure below to calculate the direct contribution of oil prices to U.S. inflation each month since 1960. This quick calculation suggests that oil contributed about two percentage points to the surges in inflation in 1974 (following the OAPEC oil embargo) and 1980 (following the Iranian revolution). Oil contributed 2.6 percentage points to the U.S. inflation rate over the 12 months ending April 2021.Both of these indicators also send a pretty clear signal that the Fed overdid it during the last year as well.The Fed’s view was that last year’s price surges resulted from temporary supply problems, of which the developments in the oil market that I described are one example. They hoped (as did I) that we would see significant progress on these supply challenges in the the months ahead. That perspective motivated the Fed’s plan to lift their foot off the accelerator only gradually as this year unfolds.But given the tragic turn of events in Europe, the supply problems are likely to get much worse before they get better. And that is going to make the Fed’s job a whole lot harder.
Oil sanctions and recession - Econbrowser by James_Hamilton - After a wild ride up to $130 a barrel, the price of oil has come back down to its level from before Russia invaded Ukraine. Russian oil may be finding buyers despite the sanctions, and U.S. production . But the situation remains very uncertain, and a big disruption in the quantity of Russian oil that reaches world refineries is a very significant possibility. In my previous post, I examined the causes of the run-up in the price of oil that had already occurred before the invasion and discussed the implications for U.S. inflation. Today I comment on the possible implications of further supply disruptions for U.S. real GDP.Price of April 2022 crude oil futures contract, from Barchart.com.Russia accounts for 13% of the world’s field production of crude oil and 17% of the world’s natural gas. While gas is a relatively local commodity, oil is readily transported. Although different grades of crude sell at different prices, to a first approximation it is a world market for oil with a single world price. Disruptions in production anywhere in the world change the price for everybody in the world. What would be the consequences if the U.S. and the rest of the world suddenly had to reduce our consumption of oil by 13%?The total retail value including taxes of refined petroleum products sold in the U.S. amounts to about 4% of U.S. GDP. Thirteen percent of 4% is (0.13)x(0.04) = 0.005, or half of 1%. Thus the dollar value of a 13% reduction in the use of petroleum products only amounts to half of one percent of GDP. For comparison, in a typical U.S. recession, real GDP falls 5% below trend — ten times as much. Moreover, the value share of energy in the U.S. economy has been falling over time, leading some to conclude that we are less vulnerable to a supply disruption today than we were 40 years ago. Top panel: dollar value of consumer purchases of energy goods and services as a percentage of total consumer spending, monthly, Jan 1959 to Jan 2022. Bottom panel: 100 times the natural logarithm of ratio ofspot price of West Texas Intermediate to the overall consumer price index.But the expenditure share did not follow a steady trend down. When the relative price of oil goes up rapidly — as it did, for example, in the 1970s — the expenditure share goes up. This is a result of the low price elasticity of the demand for oil. If despite a doubling in the price of gasoline you buy the same number of gallons of gasoline this month as last, the share of your spending devoted to gasoline doubles. If there is a significant reduction in Russian oil production, we will see a big increase in price, and that expenditure share will go up. In calculating the economic value of the lost oil, which share should we use — the share before the supply disruption, or the share after? Another way that we might try to answer this question is to look for historical precedents. [….] The table below summarizes these episodes along with two other historical examples of significant oil supply disruptions. In each of these episodes we saw a decrease in world supply of around 5%. If there were a 50% reduction in the amount of Russian oil that reaches the market, it would represent a shock as big as any of these four examples. A complete cessation of Russian production accompanied by shutting down natural gas as well would be the biggest energy supply disruption in history.
Predicting the Next Recession - McBride - Way back in 2013, I wrote a post "Predicting the Next Recession. This post was in response to several recession forecasts (that were incorrect). In that 2013 post, I wrote: The next recession will probably be caused by one of the following (from least likely to most likely): 3) An exogenous event such as a pandemic, significant military conflict, disruption of energy supplies for any reason, a major natural disaster (meteor strike, super volcano, etc), and a number of other low probability reasons. All of these events are possible, but they are unpredictable, and the probabilities are low that they will happen in the next few years or even decades.Unfortunately, in 2020, one of these low probability events happened (pandemic, emphasis added), and that led to a recession in 2020. 2) Significant policy error. Two examples: not reaching a fiscal agreement and going off the "fiscal cliff" probably would have led to a recession, and Congress refusing to "pay the bills" would have been a policy error that would have taken the economy into recession. We've seen several policy errors over the last several years, mostly related to immigration and trade during the previous administration, but none that would lead the economy into a recession. 1) Most of the post-WWII recessions were caused by the Fed tightening monetary policy to slow inflation. I think this is the most likely cause of the next recession. Usually, when inflation starts to become a concern, the Fed tries to engineer a "soft landing", and frequently the result is a recession.And this most common cause of a recession is the current concern. With inflation picking up due to the pandemic (stimulus spending, supply constraints) and now due to the invasion of Ukraine, the Fed will embark this week on a tightening cycle to slow inflation. The Fed cannot ease pandemic related supply constraints (except by curbing demand), and the Fed cannot stop the war. So, there is a possibility that the Fed will tighten too much and that will lead to a "hard landing" (aka recession).The key will be to watch housing. Housing is the main transmission mechanism for Fed policy. We have already seen mortgage rates rise enough to sharply slow mortgage equity withdrawal, and further increases will likely slow housing.
Six High Frequency Indicators for the Economy - These indicators are mostly for travel and entertainment. The TSA is providing daily travel numbers. This data is as of March 14th.This data shows the 7-day average of daily total traveler throughput from the TSA for 2019 (Light Blue), 2020 (Black), 2021 (Blue) and 2022 (Red). The dashed line is the percent of 2019 for the seven-day average. The 7-day average is down 14.3% from the same day in 2019 (85.7% of 2019). Air travel was picking up over the last few of weeks but turned down again last week (dashed line). The second graph shows the 7-day average of the year-over-year change in diners as tabulated by OpenTable for the US and several selected cities. This data is updated through March 9, 2022. This data is "a sample of restaurants on the OpenTable network across all channels: online reservations, phone reservations, and walk-ins. Dining was mostly moving sideways but declined during the winter wave of COVID and is now increasing. The 7-day average for the US is down 7% compared to 2019. This data shows domestic box office for each week and the median for the years 2016 through 2019 (dashed light blue). Black is 2020, Blue is 2021 and Red is 2022. The data is from BoxOfficeMojo through March 10th. Note that the data is usually noisy week-to-week and depends on when blockbusters are released. Movie ticket sales were at $216 million last week, up about 23% from the median for the week. Almost all of the ticket sales were for The Batman. This graph shows the seasonal pattern for the hotel occupancy rate using the four-week average. This data is through March 5th. The occupancy rate was down 8.2% compared to the same week in 2019. The 4-week average of the occupancy rate is close to the median rate for the previous 20 years (Blue). This graph is from Apple mobility. "This data is generated by counting the number of requests made to Apple Maps for directions in select countries/regions, sub-regions, and cities." This data is through March 11th for the United States and several selected cities. All data is relative to January 13, 2020. According to the Apple data directions requests, public transit in the 7-day average for the US is at 118% of the January 2020 level. Here is some interesting data on New York subway usage. This graph shows how much MTA traffic has recovered in each borough (Graph starts at first week in January 2020 and 100 = 2019 average). Manhattan is at about 37% of normal. This data is through Friday, March 11th.
Congress set to keep focus on Ukraine, energy prices - -The Russian invasion of Ukraine and high gas prices are dominating the political discussion as Congress returns this week, continuing to complicate Democrats’ efforts to revive their stalled climate and social spending bill.The war has ignited an energy policy battle on Capitol Hill, with Republicans blaming President Biden’s policies for skyrocketing oil prices and Biden pointing the finger at Russian President Vladimir Putin.“Democrats didn’t cause this problem, Vladimir Putin did, and we are working to fix it,” Biden said at House Democrats’ annual retreat Friday (E&E News PM, March 11). The price at the pump was averaging $4.33 nationally yesterday, according to AAA, while the U.S. benchmark for crude oil landed at $109 late last week after briefly touching $130 a barrel.“Oil prices went up for a lot of reasons, but one is the fact this administration made it a priority of theirs to stifle domestic production of fossil fuels,” Sen. Rob Portman (R-Ohio) said on CNN’s “State of the Union” yesterday. “There’s no secret to that.”But both parties generally support the ban on Russian energy imports Biden put in place last week.The House has passed a bill to codify the ban and begin the process of additional trade penalties for Russia, and there are some senators who would like to see it pass the upper chamber, as well (E&E Daily, March 9).That legislation initially had language to suspend permanent normal trade relations with Russia, but it was reportedly nixed in negotiations with the White House.Biden, however, announced his support for the idea, which requires congressional approval, on Friday. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) said last week that she intends to move legislation this week ending normal trade relations with Russia. Lawmakers could vote on a measure to suspend permanent normal trade relations — potentially with the energy import ban attached — as soon as this week.In addition to the Republican attacks, the political atmosphere has caused some friction among Democrats, who still hope to revive the $1.7 trillion “Build Back Better Act” in some form before the midterms. Senate Energy and Natural Resources Chair Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) opposes the package because of its potential inflationary impact, a concern that has only been amplified in recent weeks.Manchin has been pushing for more domestic fossil fuel development. While the original “Build Back Better Act” contained some $550 billion for clean energy and climate policy, Manchin said last week he wants to see support for clean energy in any legislation balanced with fossil fuel development and reliability (E&E News PM, March 11). “I don’t want to give anyone hope that there’s going to be something,” Manchin said during a press conference at the CERAWeek by S&P Global conference. “I really don’t know if there’s going to be any bill.”
Biden signs budget bill with Ukraine aid but no virus cash (AP) — President Joe Biden on Tuesday signed a bill providing $13.6 billion in additional military and humanitarian aid to Ukraine as part of a $1.5 trillion government spending measure that omits COVID-19 aid the White House says is urgently needed.The COVID spending was a casualty of negotiations over the larger government bill. The White House had asked for $22.5 billion for vaccines and treatment, but that was trimmed during talks to $15.6 billion and ultimately dropped altogether as rank-and-file Democrats rebelled against proposed cuts in state aid to pay for the new spending.“We have made tremendous progress in our fight against COVID-19 but our work isn’t done,” Biden tweeted Tuesday. “We need Congress to immediately provide $22.5 billion in emergency funding to sustain our nation’s COVID-19 response.”In a Tuesday call with governors, White House COVID-19 coordinator Jeff Zients highlighted “severe consequences” that the lack of additional funding would have on the nation’s response, including federal support for states, according to an administration official.The White House says that without additional funding, the federal government will stop accepting new claims next week for treating uninsured people for COVID-19 and that state allocations of life-saving monoclonal antibody treatments will be slashed by 30% to prolong their supply. The administration says it also needs more money to purchase more antiviral pills and prophylactic treatments for people who are immunocompromised, as well as to buy more vaccine doses in the event regulators recommend additional booster shots or a variant-specific booster, should one arise.“With cases rising abroad, scientific and medical experts have been clear that in the next couple of months, there could be increasing cases of COVID 19 here in the United States as well,” said White House press secretary Jen Psaki. ”Waiting to provide funding until we’re in a worse spot but the virus will be too late. We need funding now.”The $1.5 trillion bill to fund the government for the current year that runs through Sept. 30 is being enacted five months behind schedule. But t he money for Ukraine to fight Russia’s invasion became a bipartisan rallying point for the measure as Congress urged Biden to take more aggressive steps against Russian President Vladimir Putin.
US retreats on Venezuela oil talks after Maduro meeting criticism | Financial Times -The Biden administration saw the Ukraine crisis as an opportunity to re-engage with Nicolás Maduro’s authoritarian regime in Venezuela, hoping to secure alternative oil supplies and prise away a key Moscow ally. But after news leaked of a secret mission to Caracas by three top White House officials, sparking a furious political backlash, the administration backtracked. The White House this month sent three top officials to talk to Maduro, even though the US does not recognise him as president and has indicted him as a drug trafficker with a $15mn price on his head. The US government acknowledged last week that one aim was “certainly” to discuss energy security following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The visit — the first by a White House official to Caracas since the 1990s — prompted a fierce backlash at home, not only from Republican hawks like Florida senator Marco Rubio but also Bob Menendez, the Democrat head of the Senate foreign relations committee. Rubio accused President Joe Biden of trying to replace “the oil we buy from one murderous dictator [Russian leader Vladimir Putin] with oil from another murderous dictator [Maduro].” Menendez said “the democratic aspirations of the Venezuelan people . . . are worth much more than a few thousand barrels of oil”. “Nicolás Maduro is a cancer to our hemisphere and we should not breathe new life into his reign of torture and murder,” he added. The official US explanation for the trip changed during the week and by Friday, state department spokesman Ned Price said the delegation had travelled to Caracas with “two priorities in mind”. The first was the release of US prisoners and the second was “championing the democratic aspirations of the Venezuelan people”. He made no mention of oil. Price denied there was a “quid pro quo” for Maduro releasing two US prisoners shortly after the US delegation left Caracas. “For us, there can be no trade-off,” he said. The US decision to go to Venezuela initially looked like a startling policy volte-face. Washington broke ties with Maduro in 2019 after accusations he rigged an election, closed its embassy and sanctioned the Venezuelan oil industry in a bid to push him from power. It also looked like a slap in the face for Juan Guaidó, the opposition leader who Washington has recognised as the legitimate president of Venezuela for the past three years. He was not involved in the talks. Analysts say the Biden administration has been considering a change in its Venezuela strategy for some time, given the failure of the Trump-era “maximum pressure” policy to topple Maduro. But the clamour for change was given extra impetus by the war in Ukraine. The US banned imports of Russian oil and gas this week and is now hunting for alternative sources of energy. Before 2019, the US was the biggest buyer of Venezuelan oil.However, some analysts warned that if the US believed Venezuela could make up for the absence of Russian oil, it was mistaken. Venezuela has huge reserves but its oil infrastructure is dilapidated after years of neglect and it now accounts for less than 1 per cent of global oil supply.“The assumption that [state oil company] PDVSA can simply turn on the taps is terribly flawed,” said Ryan Berg, senior fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.
'Rogue states' and the necessity of oil -There is nothing like a sudden decline in available oil supplies to bring out forgiveness in what is dubbed in and around Washington, D.C. as "The Blob." This term refers to an amorphous, but powerful group of think-alike U.S. foreign policy actors both inside and outside of government who have influenced every U.S. administration since the end of World War II. The main tenet of The Blob is that America knows best how to lead the world and it must do so.The Blob seriously penalizes those whom it regards as a threat to American power and security. The Blob likes to use words such as "rogue" and "pariah" to describe those countries which get on its wrong side. (Many are admittedly run by truly odious regimes.) With the abrupt drop in oil supplies from Russia in the wake of the Ukraine/Russia conflict, the list of rogue and pariah states is about to get shorter as the necessity of obtaining ready oil supplies trumps any concern about previous challenges to The Blob's narrative. Venezuela and Iran, two large oil producers, are suddenly being courted by the current U.S. administration with an eye toward increasing world supplies of oil. World oil production peaked in November 2018 and has been in decline since then with a huge drop related to the outbreak of the COVID pandemic. Production recovered, but was still several million barrels per day below the 2018 peak when the Ukraine/Russia conflict began. Russian oil production has almost surely fallen since the war started as the Russians find fewer and fewer places to sell their crude and not enough space to store it all.One very important truth about America's power is rarely mentioned by The Blob in public: That power depends in large part on access to resources found in other countries. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) lists 17 minerals for which America is 100 percent dependent on imports. (See page 7 of this report.) The USGS lists another 32 for which the United States imports more than 50 percent of its needs. And, contrary to the popular impression, the United States still imports a considerable amount of oil (though it exports some of it again as refined products). More important, American prices for oil are tied to the world market. Those prices would be affected by the current shortage whether the country imported oil or not. All this explains, in part, why getting countries around the world to accept American leadership is central to The Blob's strategy. The United States needs those imported minerals and other commodities to remain a world power. It's true that if the United States can somehow provide stability to the rest of the world, that's good for those who have such resources to sell (whether they came to control them legitimately or not). But it is becoming increasingly difficult for the United States to do that—especially as it is more and more challenged by China and Russia and even some smaller countries such as oil-rich Venezuela that believe American power has limits and that try to expose those limits through their economic, political and military actions.
Biden, Democrats take aim at oil companies for high prices - After weeks of inconsistent messaging on rising energy costs, congressional Democrats and the White House are uniting behind a strategy of blaming oil companies for high prices at the pump. House Energy and Commerce Chair Frank Pallone (D-N.J.) announced yesterday that he’s asking executives from six oil companies to appear before his committee on April 6 with the intent of asking them why energy prices are rising. Similarly, Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) yesterday called for energy executives to testify in the Senate on charges of price gouging. The Senate hearing could find a home in the Commerce, Science and Transportation Committee. “I am deeply concerned that the oil industry has not taken all actions within its power to lower domestic gasoline prices and alleviate Americans’ pain at the pump,” Pallone wrote to the six oil companies. “Instead, the industry appears to be taking advantage of the crisis for its own benefit.” Pallone sent letters to Bernard Looney, chief executive officer of BP PLC; Michael Wirth, chair and CEO of Chevron Corp.; Rick Muncrief, president and CEO of Devon Energy Corp.; Darren Woods, CEO of Exxon Mobil Corp.; Scott Sheffield, CEO of Pioneer Natural Resources Co.; and Ben van Beurden, CEO of Shell PLC. It was not immediately clear if the executives would attend, though Pallone could force attendance with a subpoena. Pallone highlighted two claims made repeatedly by Democrats in recent days. One is that companies are using record profits to pay hefty dividends or to buy back stock from shareholders, and the other is that they are not doing enough to increase domestic production given the embargo on Russian oil and gas. Pallone also seemed to have his eye on curtailing some energy tax credits — an idea popular with Democrats. He noted energy companies are reaping profits via higher prices while using “generous production tax incentives provided by American taxpayers.” Democratic leaders continue to exert pressure on Russia following its invasion of Ukraine. House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer (D-Md.) announced last night that the House would take up a bill today ending normal trade relations with Russia, an action urged last week by President Biden (E&E Daily March 14).
Lawmaker pressure on Biden hits its limits -- Lawmakers on Capitol Hill have repeatedly been steps ahead of the Biden administration in calling to escalate the U.S. response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine — proposals the White House ultimately adopted. But they may be about to meet the fruit-bearing limits of their pressure campaigns. The House is set to vote this week on legislation to revoke Russia’s normal trade status, just days after approving a ban on Russian oil imports, which the Biden administration had initially resisted. And Biden is set to sign a massive government funding package that includes $13.6 billion in humanitarian and military assistance to Ukraine — a number that ballooned from the administration’s initial $6.4 billion request a few weeks ago. But the number of tools available to the administration is quickly dwindling, and the list of strategies lawmakers are now advocating include several tactics — no-fly zones, direct delivery of weapons and aid — that Biden has ruled out in no uncertain terms. Those administrative red lines have highlighted the complexities of confronting a global nuclear power controlled by an unpredictable leader, Russian President Vladimir Putin, who’s had imperial designs on Ukraine stretching back decades and doesn’t appear to be dissuaded by the global backlash against him. They’ve also illustrated the limits of Congress in guiding America’s role in the Ukrainian defense effort, even as voter sentiment around the country is putting ever more pressure on Washington policymakers to intervene more aggressively. The Biden administration has maintained that it’s necessary to coordinate actions with European allies to show a united front against Russia — which means the U.S. is at times slower to act than lawmakers might like. Speaking to House Democrats on Friday in Philadelphia, where the caucus gathered for its annual strategy conference, Biden acknowledged the frustration simmering among a public that’s watching Putin’s atrocities unfold on cable news and social media. Biden said the U.S. response to Russia’s belligerence has, at times, been slower and less aggressive than he’d like. But it’s better to go slower with allies, he argued, than race ahead alone.
US threatens trade embargo as fighting continues to escalate, sanctions devastate Russian economy - Announcing a further escalation of the economic warfare against Russia, US Deputy Treasury Secretary Wally Adeyemo threatened on Monday that the United States was considering the imposition of a full trade embargo on Russia and the closure of international waterways to the country. Both demands had earlier been advanced by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. The threats came after another dangerous escalation of the conflict on Sunday, when 8 Russian cruise missiles struck the International Center for Peacekeeping and Security in Yavoriv, a town just 10 miles from Ukraine’s border with NATO member Poland. The air strike reportedly killed 35 people and injured 134. On Sunday evening, Russia announced that more such attacks could follow, claiming that the attack had killed “180 foreign mercenaries” and disrupted Western arms supplies. Speaking to the Washington Post on conditions of anonymity, a US defense official denied that shipments of Western military aid had been disrupted. Twenty NATO countries are involved in large-scale shipments of ammunition, handheld or shoulder-fired anti-tank and antiaircraft systems to Ukraine—weapons that are particularly suitable for use in insurgencies. The US alone has pledged a total of $1.2 billion to Ukraine this year, with Biden announcing the latest tranch of $200 million on Saturday. NATO and the Ukrainian government are also explicitly encouraging foreign fighters, as well as far-right forces all over the world, to come to Ukraine to join the “International Legion” and fight in fascist paramilitary formations, such as the Azov Battalion. The latter has reportedly been able to grow its membership significantly in recent weeks. The Center in Yavoriv, where members of the “International Legion” have been stationed, has long been a major hub for the military supplies and training that NATO has provided to Ukraine’s military since the US-backed far-right coup of 2014. According to BuzzFeed, troops from the Florida National Guard were training Ukrainian soldiers at the facility as part of a NATO mission as recently as early February. Fighting, especially in southern Ukraine and around the city of Mariupol, continues to escalate, with signs that both sides are increasingly targeting civilian areas and the Russian military intensifying its attack on Ukrainian cities.
House passes bill to end normal trade relations with Russia, Belarus - The House on Thursday passed a bill to end normal trade relations with Russia and Belarus as the U.S. and its allies tighten the economic vice on the Kremlin. Lawmakers voted 424 to 8 in favor of legislation to raise tariffs on goods from Russia and Belarus and give President Biden power to impose even stricter import taxes on their exports amid the ongoing invasion of Ukraine. The eight lawmakers who voted against the bill are all Republicans. The bill also sets up strict guidelines for when the president can restore normal trade relations with Russia and Belarus based on the state of the Ukraine war. The Biden administration will additionally be obligated to push for Russia’s removal from the World Trade Organization and oppose Belarus joining the group, which would subject both to higher tariffs and steeper trade barriers. “The Congress today will take another step in lockstep with many of our allies, as is the Biden administration, to tighten our stranglehold on the Russian economy,” said Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) in a speech on the House floor Thursday. She called the legislation “an intense action to further isolate Russia and decimate its economy.” The House vote comes less than a week after Biden announced the U.S. and Group of Seven nations would end normal trade relations with Russia and Belarus. The president also imposed a ban on Russian oil imports last week, though U.S. allies have declined to cut themselves off from the Russian energy sector. The bill now heads to the Senate, where Majority Leader Charles Schumer (D-N.Y.) said Thursday he plans to get the bill to Biden’s desk as soon as possible. Republican lawmakers have expressed concerns about an expansion and renewal of the Global Magnitsky Human Rights Accountability Act included in the bill and are pushing to add an explicit ban on Russian oil beyond Biden’s executive order. Several lawmakers cited Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s gripping address to Congress on Wednesday, which included a heart-wrenching video of the destruction wrought in Ukraine by Russia, in their remarks supporting the bill. “Any American watching President Zelensky yesterday knows much more is required of us,” said Rep. Kevin Brady (R-Texas), ranking member on the House Ways and Means Committee, in a speech on the House floor before the vote. “This step today is crucial in our defense of Ukraine, the Ukrainian people and democracy.”
House advances raft of Russian sanction bills but clashes over Fincen authority — The House Financial Services Committee advanced a series of bills with bipartisan support on Thursday that would expand the scope of the U.S. sanctions regime against the Russian Federation, though one bill to expand the Treasury Department's legal authority to crack down on sanctioned individuals was fiercely opposed by Republicans.One key bill, titled Russia and Belarus Financial Sanctions Act and amended by Rep. Brad Sherman, D-Calif., is intended to address what lawmakers described as ambiguities in the White House sanctions deployed shortly after the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February. The bill says that the U.S. sanctions regime applies to the foreign subsidiaries and affiliates of American companies.“We’ve imposed very significant sanctions through our financial system, but what is not well known is that the sanctions affect only U.S. corporations,” Sherman said during the hearing. “They do not affect the foreign subsidiaries owned by U.S. corporations. This bill will solve that problem.”
GOP pushes to add Russian oil ban into trade bill - A key GOP senator said on Thursday that Republicans will want to add language codifying a ban on Russian oil imports into a House-passed bill to end normal trade relations with Moscow. The House passed legislation on Thursday to give President Biden the power to impose tariffs on goods from Russia and Belarus, require the administration to push for Russia's removal from the World Trade Organization and renew the Global Magnitsky Human Rights Accountability Act. But the bill doesn't include language codifying Biden's Russian oil ban. The House passed that as a separate bill earlier this month, which hasn't yet been taken up in the Senate. Asked what changes Republicans would want to make to the House bill, Sen. Mike Crapo (R-Idaho), the top Republican on the Finance Committee, told The Hill that they are "working on it" but pointed to the inclusion of the Russian oil ban as something he wanted in the trade legislation. "My understanding is that they are not going to include ... the ban on Russian oil," Crapo said. "So that's something that we need to include in it." Crapo, Sen. Ron Wyden (D-Ore.) and Reps. Richard Neal (D-Mass.) and Kevin Brady (R-Texas), the House Ways and Means Committee chairman and top Republican, had initially announced that they had reached a path forward for a bill that linked the two issues, banning Russian oil imports and suspending normal trade relations with Russia. But the language revoking normal trade relations with Russia got dropped from the bill that passed the House earlier this month, which instead just focused on banning Russian oil imports, the world trade organization, and additional sanctions. Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) who helped spearhead a Senate bill banning Russian oil imports, has said he didn't think a vote on the oil ban was necessary after the White House action. Senate Democrats are hoping to be able to quickly move the House legislation to end normal trade relations with Russia. "I support the bipartisan bill introduced today in the House, and urge its unanimous passage in the Senate, as soon as possible," Wyden said in a statement. Asked about Crapo's push to get the oil import ban into the bill, Wyden declined to comment, saying that he wouldn't discuss conversations with colleagues. Senate Majority Leader Charles Schumer (D-N.Y.) predicted that the House bill, which passed 424 to 8, would have "broad bipartisan support" in the Senate.
Republican senators introduce bill to ban Russian uranium imports --Sen. John Barrasso (R-Wyo.) and several other Republican senators introduced legislation on Thursday that would ban imports of Russian uranium as an additional way to economically isolate Russia over its invasion of Ukraine. The legislation would further steps already taken by the U.S. to prohibit Russian energy imports after President Biden last week announced a ban on imports of oil, natural gas and coal from the country. “The time is now to permanently remove all Russian energy from the American marketplace,” Barrasso, who is the top Republican on the Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee, said in a statement. “We know Vladimir Putin uses this money to help fund his brutal and unprovoked war in Ukraine.” “While banning imports of Russian oil, gas and coal is an important step, it cannot be the last. Banning Russian uranium imports will further defund Russia’s war machine, help revive American uranium production, and increase our national security.”Sens. Kevin Cramer (R-N.D), Cynthia Lummis (R-Wy.) and Roger Marshall(R-Kan.) joined Barrasso in introducing the legislation.“This is a country that has repeatedly shown a willingness to weaponize their energy exports for geopolitical advantage, and have used those profits to finance their aggressive and unprovoked war against the sovereign nation of Ukraine,” Marshall said in a statement. “Enough is enough – energy independence means energy independence and that must include uranium.” The development comes as the U.S. has continued to ramp up sanctions and punishments against Russia for its invasion of Ukraine, which started over three weeks ago. Russian President Vladimir Putin and the country’s foreign minister have been sanctioned, along with the parent company of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline and its corporate officers.The U.S. has also banned Russian imports of seafood, spirits and diamonds in addition to energy imports. U.S. officials have also stepped up their rhetoric against Russia and its president, with President Biden on Wednesday calling Russian President Vladimir Putin a “war criminal.” He furthered those remarks on Thursday, saying Putin was a “pure thug” and “murderous dictator.”
Russia Sanctions Trade Shock: Fulfilling the Fears of Smoot-Hawley? by Yves Smith -- The disconnect between the Administration and the Beltway power players versus mainstream Americans is large and seems destined to grow. The US press and Democratic party officials are intent upon, and even gleeful about, punishing Russia through sanctions, since they feel compelled to Do Something while not being willing or able to make interventions that might make a difference to the battle outcome. European officials are more sensitive to the risk to their economy, with Germany, Romania and Hungary not joining the US appeal last week for tougher sanctions on Russian energy (recall the partial cutoff from SWIFT exempted commodity transactions, particularly energy). The rhetoric and punishments escalated last week even as signs of real economy costs in the West mount, along with warnings of greater harm if there is no relaxation soon. Americans are noticing the impact of higher fuel prices even before they have worked their way much through the economy via 1970s-style energy-induced price increases of goods and services. But they are starting. For instance, Uber has just imposed a fuel surcharge. We’ll discuss an outcome that does not appear to be sufficiently on the radar of economists and politicians: that of a trade shock, where the impact of sanctions-induced shortages and sharp price increases produce “the whole is greater than the sum of the parts” levels of profound economic damage. Mind you, this outcome is not baked in. Spitballing, I’d now put the odds at only 20%. But this situation bears watching. Given the complexity of trade and globalized manufacture, combined with the business press focus on financial markets over real economy nitty-gritty, we very much hope readers with technical expertise and/or a front row seat on industry conditions pipe up on this post and on an ongoing basis. Western leaders may soon find a way to better square the circle of seeming being tough on Russia without producing much self harm. That concern did play into the initial sanctions, where the partial SWIFT ban was designed to be mighty leaky so as to allow the West to continue buying Russian energy. But apparently no one bothered understanding how oil exporting works. For instance, the financial sanctions resulted in banks not being willing to issue letters of credit used to protect buyers. No letter of credit more or less means no paying for shipments, which means no shipments.1 A few Russian tankers have nevertheless docked post-sanctions and have discharged their cargo. One wasn’t flagged as a Russian ship and sort of does not count; I’m curious as to how the others navigated both the prohibitions at ports and the letter of credit impediments.The point is that the initial sanctions weren’t as surgical as the US and Europe believed. The blowback has gotten worse as private companies have piled on with their own restrictions and the US has upped the ante, first by banning all Russian oil, and then by enlisting the G7, with the hope of the rest of the WTO following, to end Russia’s favored nation trading status.2
Intel chair 'amazed' Russia hasn't launched full-scale cyberwarfare - Sen. Mark Warner (D-Va.), chairman of the Senate Intelligence Committee, said on Monday he was surprised Russia hasn’t launched more destructive cyberattacks against Ukraine and the West despite having the capability to do so. “I am still relatively amazed that they have not really launched the level of maliciousness that their cyber arsenal includes,” Warner said during a cyber webinar hosted by the Center for Strategic and International Studies. Many cyber experts and U.S. intelligence officials predicted that Russia would launch massive cyberattacks, especially following crippling economic sanctions imposed by the U.S. and Europe, but so far those predictions haven’t materialized. Warner predicted on Feb. 28 that Russia would launch cyberattacks "in the coming days and weeks." In the lead up to Russia's invasion of Ukraine, Ukraine was hit by several cyberattacks that targeted government websites, including the parliament and the foreign affairs and defense ministries. Warner said that the cyberattacks thus far in Ukraine are “relatively mild” and said he had asked U.S. intelligence officials to explain “why we haven’t seen the real [Russian] A-team.” “In the cyber domain, we know the Russians are first rate,” Warner said, adding that he was surprised that “they’ve not launched a Petya-type attack with software that includes worms that go from one network to another.” Warner added that although the intelligence officials he spoke to do not have a definitive answer on Russia’s cyber strategy, they offered two potential reasons for its recent restraint. For one, the Russians probably assumed that they would win the war in Ukraine relatively quickly, making cyberattacks an alternative war option. Second, the Russians are probably choosing not to use destructive cyberattacks that can completely damage Ukraine’s critical infrastructure because it can be expensive to rebuild it. However, Warner warned the U.S. to stay vigilant in case the Russians decide to up their game on cyberwarfare. Warner also said that he was concerned in the early days of the invasion that Russia could launch an “expansive cyberattack” that could cross over to Poland — a NATO member — triggering Article 5, which says that an act of war against any member will trigger a response from the full alliance.
White House Chief of Staff Ron Klain Kowtows before the Economic Club Of Washington -- by Lambert Strether --When I saw that President Biden’s Chief of Staff, Ron Klain, had given a speech at the Economic Club of Washington DC, I actually looked forward to reading the transcript (here), because I’ve heard other public figures give presentations to regional Economic Clubs in places like Cleveland or San Francisco, and the talks have often been interesting, the questions trenchant. Boy, was I naive. Of course, the Economic Club of Washington is on K Street: And the sycophancy was so gummy and blobby that you couldn’t cut it with a shovel. (Thomas Frank, if you’re reading this, this event is worthy of your attention.) Fortunately for us all, or at least many of us, Klain’s speech, as a matter of public record, is about to sink beneath the waves; I searched for a line from interviewer David Rubenstein’s introduction, and it doesn’t show up in Google at all, and only yields one hit in DuckDuckGo: But wait, you say. David Rubenstein? Rubenstein is a squillionaire, and co-founder and co-chairman of the ginormous private equity firm The Carlyle Group, “the CIA of the business world.” So what we have here isn’t really a speech to a club; it’s a subordinate (Klain) reporting to a superior (Rubenstein), on matters of interest to that superior. (Bourdieu would love this.) Mostly, Rubenstein is interested in Ukraine. I’m not, because I think we have no way of knowing what’s happening on the ground. I’m interested in details of how Washington works, and especially interested in Covid. (I’m also a little bit interested in Klain, a spectacular mediocrity who should not hold high office.) So I’m going to cut out snippets from the speech, and comment on them. I’m sorry I can’t give this speech the full treatment; it would be like putting on my yellow waders to dive into a bowl of oatmeal at a rolling, gummy, blobby boil. Not advisable.
More stonewalling by the White House and US media about the Ukrainian biolabs - On Friday, the Biden White House and US corporate media continued blocking any investigation into what Under Secretary of State for Political Affairs of the United States Victoria Nuland called during congressional testimony earlier in the week, “biological research facilities” in Ukraine. After three days of silence, the New York Times published an article entitled “Theory About U.S.-Funded Bioweapons Labs in Ukraine Is Unfounded” on Friday that reported on Nuland’s comments before the Senate Foreign Relations Committee. The Times started off by stating that there is “no evidence to support the claims” by Russian state media that the US has been funding biological weapons labs in Ukraine. The Times then says that “President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine, the White House, the Pentagon and the State Department” have all unequivocally denied the charges as though these statements are enough to back up the claims of no evidence. Then, the Times says, “There are biological laboratories inside Ukraine, and since 2005, the United States has provided backing to a number of institutions to prevent the production of biological weapons.” Instead of taking this information as the starting point for questioning the supposed peaceful aims of the Pentagon, the Times goes on to repeat verbatim the responses of the US to charges that the Defense Department is operating biological weapons labs. After quoting Victoria Nuland’s statement before Congress—which included expressions of concern that the Russians may gain control of the biolab “research materials”—the Times repeats the explanation provided by the State Department on Thursday. These were that Nuland was referring to “diagnostic and biodefense laboratories during her testimony,” that these labs are “different from biological weapons facilities” and that “biodefense laboratories” are for combatting “biological threats” in Ukraine. The Washington Post carried a similar report on Friday that extensively quoted a statement by Zelensky who said, “No chemical or any other weapons of mass destruction were developed on my land.” The Ukrainian president said that the biological laboratories are “engaged in ordinary science … not military technology” and then said the allegations meant that Russia was planning to carry out a biological attack on Ukraine. “They have already done such things in other countries … and they will do so again,” Zelensky said. The United Nations Security Council met on Friday at the request of Russia to discuss allegations of military biological activities by the US in Ukraine. Russia’s UN representative, Vasily Nebenzya, gave a report to the Security Council which made a series of assertions about the labs in Ukraine. Nebenzya alleged that Russia had discovered “the truly shocking fact of an emergency cleanup by the Kyiv regime of the traces of a military biological program which is being implemented by Kyiv with support of the US Department of Defense.” The Russian military, he claimed, “now has documents which confirm that on the territory of Ukraine there was a network consisting of at least 30 biological laboratories in which very dangerous biological experiments are being conducted aimed at strengthening the pathogenic qualities of the plague, anthrax, tularemia, cholera and other lethal diseases using synthetic biology.”
Kinzinger calls out Gabbard for Russian misinformation -- Rep. Adam Kinzinger (R-Ill.) called out former Rep. Tulsi Gabbard (D-Hawaii) on Sunday for “actual Russian propaganda” after the ex-congresswoman tweeted a video claiming that the U.S. is funding more than 25 biolabs in Ukraine that are “conducting research on dangerous pathogens.” “Actual Russian propaganda. Traitorous. Russia also said the Luger center in Georgia was making zombies. Tulsi should go to Russia,” Kinzinger wrote in a retweet of the video Gabbard published earlier that day. Gabbard tweeted a nearly two-minute video on Sunday laying out “the undeniable fact” that the U.S. funds between 25 and 30 biolabs in Ukraine that are “conducting research on dangerous pathogens.”The New York Times conducted a fact check on Friday that said the theory that the U.S. is funding biological weapons labs in Ukraine is “baseless.” “There is no evidence to support the claims, which President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine, the White House, the Pentagon and the State Department have all unequivocally denied,” the Times wrote, noting that the theory has been promoted by Russian state media, social media users and conservative voices. The newspaper wrote that the U.S. has given backing to biological labs in Ukraine since 2005 “to prevent the production of biological weapons,” adding that some individuals have “misleadingly cited remarks from American officials as proof that the labs are producing or conducting research on biological weapons.” Kinzinger is not the only lawmaker to blast Gabbard, who ran for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2020. Sen. Mitt Romney (R-Utah) in a tweet on Sunday accused Gabbard of “parroting false Russian propaganda,” adding, “Her treasonous lies may well cost lives.” The Utah Republican did not specify what comments from Gabbard he was responding to, though it is likely he was referencing her claims regarding U.S.-funded biolabs in Ukraine.
Former Democratic Party congresswoman Tulsi Gabbard attacked for demanding the US shut down Ukrainian biolabs - Over the past few days, Tulsi Gabbard, the former Democratic Party congresswoman from Hawaii, has been attacked for spreading “traitorous lies,” being “treasonous” and peddling “Russian propaganda” by demanding the Biden administration shut down biolabs in Ukraine and destroy the pathogens stored in these facilities managed by the Pentagon. On Sunday morning, Gabbard posted a video on Twitter with an accompanying text that said, “There are 25+ US-funded biolabs in Ukraine which if breached would release & spread deadly pathogens to US/world. We must take action now to prevent disaster. US/Russia/Ukraine/NATO/UN/EU must implement a ceasefire now around these labs until they’re secured & pathogens destroyed.” Gabbard’s statement provoked hysterical denunciations from Sen. Mitt Romney (Republican of Utah) and Rep. Adam Kinzinger (Republican of Illinois). Romney tweeted on Sunday afternoon, “Tulsi Gabbard is parroting false Russian propaganda. Her treasonous lies may well cost lives.” Kinzinger tweeted later that evening, “Actual Russian propaganda. Traitorous. Russia also said the Lugar Center in Georgia was making zombies. Tulsi should go to Russia.” The wild denunciations of Gabbard are revealing since she is doing what the US media has refused to do, and that is demand an end to the ongoing refusal of the US government to explain what Under Secretary of State Victoria Nuland was talking about during congressional testimony on March 8 when she admitted that there were “biological research facilities” in Ukraine. The accusation of “treasonous lies” by Romney is serious. Treason is defined in the US Constitution as either levying war against the United States or adhering to its enemies. It carries a sentence of death or imprisonment and fines. Meanwhile, Kinzinger’s reference to the “Lugar Center in Georgia” also raises additional questions about US involvement in biological facilities in the territories of the former USSR. The center, named after former Republican Sen. Richard Lugar from Indiana, was opened in March 2011 in Tbilisi, according to a report from the Senate Committee on Foreign Relations, “to promote infectious disease detection, epidemiological surveillance, and research for the benefit of the United States, Georgia, the Caucasus region, and the global community.” Tbilisi is approximately 100 miles from the Georgian border with Russia. Once again, the primary American news outlets—such as the New York Times, the Washington Post, the Wall Street Journal, USA Today as well as the TV news networks ABC News and CBS News—have refused to report on Gabbard’s comments and the response of Romney and Kinzinger to them.
CIA detainee Ammar al-Baluchi was used as a training prop to teach torture techniques - A newly declassified 2008 document from the CIA’s inspector general reveals that one of the detainees currently held at the Guantanamo Bay detention facility was used as a living prop at a black site in Afghanistan to teach trainees the infamous enhanced interrogation techniques adopted by the administration of George W. Bush. Ammar al-Baluchi, a Kuwaiti citizen, was rendered into US detention in 2003 from Pakistani custody and taken to a CIA torture facility known as the Salt Pit north of Kabul. According to the declassified document, the CIA was aware that rendering al-Baluchi was illegal because he was no longer a terrorist threat. Proving that the Bush-Cheney administration’s pseudo-legal justifications for torture were themselves a sham, Baluchi was initially subjected to two torture techniques that were not on the approved list. The first was the use of a stick behind the knees in a stress position, and the other involved leaning back while kneeling and dousing with ice water. One of the approved torture techniques being taught by the CIA and used repeatedly on Baluchi was “walling.” The CIA inspector general’s report says the torture trainees lined up to take turns smashing Baluchi head against a plywood wall. According to the results of an MRI of Baluchi’s head carried out in 2018, a neuropsychologist found “abnormalities indicating moderate to severe brain damage” in areas affecting memory formation and retrieval, as well as behavioral regulation. The analysis found that the “abnormalities observed were consistent with traumatic brain injury.” The walling of Baluchi involved placing his heels against a specially designed plywood wall “which had flexibility to it” and putting a rolled up towel around his neck. The heavily redacted report states, “The interrogators would then grab the ends of the towel in front of and below the detainees face and shove [Baluchi] backwards into the wall, never letting go of the towel.” While Baluchi was “naked for the proceedings,” the goal of the interrogators was to “bounce” him off the wall. While the report states that there was no time limit for the walling sessions, “typically a session did not last for more than two hours at a time,” they went for as long as necessary for training purposes. The declassified report also says that the treatment of Baluchi was not to extract information from him because the trainees were only interested in completing an interrogation course and becoming certified. As a former trainee told the CIA investigators, “all the interrogation students lined up to ‘wall’ Ammar so that [the instructor] could certify them on their ability to use the technique.” The report says that the interrogation of Baluchi at the Salt Pit did not yield any useful intelligence because the interrogators “focused more on whether Ammar was ‘compliant’ than on the quality of the information he was providing.” It says the CIA’s logic in justifying the detention is “fuzzy and circular.” Baluchi, who is said to be the nephew of Khalid Shaikh Mohammed, has been at Guantanamo Bay since 2006. The reason the CIA document has been released is because Baluchi’s lawyers are requesting an independent medical examination of him.
Millions of vulnerable Americans likely to fall off Medicaid once the federal public health emergency ends - As many as 16 million low-income Americans, including millions of children, are destined to fall off Medicaid when the nation’s public health emergency ends, as states face a herculean mission to sort out who no longer belongs on rolls that have swollen to record levels during the pandemic. The looming disruption is a little-noticed side effect of the coronavirus crisis, and it is stoking fears among some on Medicaid and their advocates that vulnerable people who survived the pandemic will risk suddenly living without health coverage. For the Biden administration — which will make the decision on when to lift the health emergency — there is the potential political stain of presiding over a surge of poor, newly uninsured Americans, depending on how things go once states resume checking which Medicaid beneficiaries still qualify. “The main concern I have is people are going to be cut off for reasons that have nothing to do with their eligibility,” said Gordon Bonnyman, a staff attorney for the Tennessee Justice Center, a nonprofit working for affordable health care. “Either they drop the ball, or the state drops the ball.” The unprecedented work that lies ahead will wind down a profound, temporary change Congress made to Medicaid, the nation’s largest public health insurance program, early in the pandemic. The first coronavirus relief law, in March 2020, offered states a bargain to help them cope with the sudden spurt of Americans losing jobs and health benefits that accompanied the worst public health crisis in a century: The federal government would give states extra money to help pay for Medicaid if they promised not to move anyone off the program as long as the emergency lasted. Every state accepted the bargain at a moment when few imagined that, two years later, the pandemic — and the public health emergency the Department of Health and Human Services has been renewing every 90 days since the coronavirus’s first winter — would still be present. In that time, Medicaid caseloads have jumped about 22 percent nationally as new people have joined and no one has cycled on and off the rolls. The nearly 78 million Americans on Medicaid as of September, the latest figure available because federal tallies run months behind, are the most since the program began as a shared federal-state responsibility in the 1960s as a pillar of President Lyndon B. Johnson’s War on Poverty. Once the federal emergency is lifted, every state will need to reassess its entire bloated roster. Many of the people who will be removed from the safety-net insurance probably will qualify for private health plans, according to Biden administration officials and health-care researchers and advocates. But large questions hover over how many beneficiaries whose incomes have risen above Medicaid’s eligibility thresholds will simply disappear instead of sliding over to other insurance. And it is unclear how many who remain eligible will be removed from the program improperly.
Report details White House science office problems - The White House science office continues to be consumed by controversy after the high-profile departure of former director Eric Lander last month. A new 17-page report from a whistleblower group offers more details about claims Lander abused aides at the Office of Science and Technology Policy and broke other government rules. “This case is very disturbing,” the Government Accountability Project report states. “Ethics violations were rampant; retaliation was ever-present. It proves toxic workplaces are nonpartisan.”Specifically, the report claims Lander mistreated women and yelled at Asian American staff — an accusation his attorney denied. The watchdog group last night sent the document to congressional committees and the U.S. Office of Special Counsel, urging both to look into what it claims are ongoing problems with other top OSTP officials. The group also says the White House personnel office dragged its feet in investigating the matter, despite the fact President Biden pledged “zero tolerance” for bullying and abusive behavior in his administration. The report outlines allegations made by then-OSTP general counsel Rachel Wallace, who says she was demoted and faced retaliation for telling Lander he was constrained by certain government regulations, including that he could not hire staff before being confirmed by the Senate.
Barack Obama announces positive test for Covid-19 - Barack Obama has tested positive for Covid-19. “I just tested positive for Covid,” the former president, 60, said in a tweet on Sunday.“I’ve had a scratchy throat for a couple days, but am feeling fine otherwise. Michelle and I are grateful to be vaccinated and boosted, and she has tested negative. It’s a reminder to get vaccinated if you haven’t already, even as cases go down.” Falling case rates in the US have triggered the relaxation of most public health measures imposed by cities, states and the federal government.There were roughly 35,000 infections on average over the past week, down sharply from mid-January when the average was closer to 800,000.According to Johns Hopkins University, the US death toll from the two-year coronavirus pandemic stood on Sunday at a little over 967,000, from nearly 79.5m cases.According to the federal Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), 75.2% of US adults are fully vaccinated and 47.7% of the fully vaccinated have received a booster.The CDC relaxed its guidelines for indoor masking in late February, taking a more holistic approach that meant the vast majority of Americans live in areas without the recommendation for indoor masking in public.The Obamas have homes in Washington DC, Massachusetts and Hawaii, all with more than 70% of the eligible population considered fully protected. Last August, however, Obama was forced to drastically scale back a 60th birthday party he planned to host on Martha’s Vineyard, an exclusive Massachusetts island, amid criticism for planning a large social event at a time of surging cases.
'The First Lady's husband contracted COVID': Biden says - Joe Biden made a major gaffe Tuesday by saying he contracted COVID-19, when meaning to say that second gentleman Doug Emhoff had tested positive for the virus that day.'The first lady's husband contacted COVID,' President Biden said during an Equal Pay Day celebration for Women's history month.Someone off to the side quickly corrected Biden, pointing out that his statement would mean he was the one with COVID.That's right,' he said to laughter from the room.'She's fine. Second lady – the first gentleman, how about that?' he said with a smile as he continued his gaffe regarding the relations of who had coronavirus.Texas Republican Senator Ted Cruz, who is an active critic of Democrats on Twitter, posted a clip of the comment with: 'The First Lady's husband has no idea what he's saying….' Emhoff, 57, tested positive after spending the afternoon with AmeriCorps at an environmental community service project in an urban garden in Northeast Washington, D.C.'Earlier today, the Second Gentleman tested positive for COVID-19,' the White House released in a statement Tuesday evening.The statement said that Vice President Kamala Harris tested negative for COVID-19 on Tuesday, but will continue to test now that her husband contracted the virus.'Out of an abundance of caution, the Vice President will not participate in tonight's event,' it added, referencing the Women's History Month event at the White House.
White House pushes past COVID-19 limits but threat of pandemic looms - The White House is simultaneously easing its own COVID-19 restrictions in an attempt to get it — and the American public — back to normal while grappling with the threat the pandemic still poses. The delicate balance was on display this week when hundreds of maskless guests joined for in-person bill signings where President Biden mingled with lawmakers with no social distancing protocols in place. But the ongoing risks of a return to normal were underscored on Tuesday evening when second gentleman Doug Emhoff, who is fully vaccinated and boosted, tested positive for the virus. Biden had not been tested for COVID-19 since he tested negative Sunday, White House press secretary Jen Psaki told reporters on Wednesday. Biden is not considered to be a close contact of Emhoff, who attended an event earlier Tuesday honoring AmeriCorps week at an urban garden and park in Washington, D.C. Emhoff is the first out of the four principals, a group which includes the president, first lady and Vice President Harris, to contract COVID-19. Psaki, citing health officials, said Emhoff’s positive test is not a cause for concern regarding the state of the pandemic. The White House kicked off the month of March by easing its own COVID-19 restrictions, which began with Biden delivering his State of the Union address, a speech in which he arrived and exited the House chamber maskless while shaking hands and mingling with lawmakers. Members were also not required to wear face coverings but did have to take a COVID-19 test to be able to attend in-person. Biden’s address came just days after the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) eased its mask guidance for a majority of the general public in communities considered low to medium risk. Last week Biden attended the House Democrats’ retreat in Philadelphia, where he and lawmakers were unmasked. Biden was also swarmed by maskless guests on Wednesday after he spoke about the reauthorization of the Violence Against Women Act. The White House also announced it would reopen for public tours next month, the latest sign it is returning to some semblance of a pre-pandemic normalcy. But doing so comes with risks, which are especially pronounced given Biden is 79 years old and would be at higher risk if he contracted COVID-19 despite being fully vaccinated and receiving a booster shot. Several House Democrats who attended last week’s retreat have since tested positive for COVID-19, though they were not considered close contacts of Biden. But on Tuesday the virus hit closer to home when Emhoff, who said he is exhibiting mild symptoms, tested positive. Psaki was previously the most high-profile person in the White House to test positive. Her case occurred in October, when masks were still prevalent on campus. But the environment at the White House has been noticeably different in recent weeks, with a number of maskless events and the lifting of face covering requirements for reporters in the briefing room.
‘The World Paid the Price’: Biden’s Outgoing Covid Czar Jeffrey Zients Rebuked Over Failures - Progressives on Thursday welcomed the announcement that Jeffrey Zients will step down as White House Covid-19 czar, with the head of a leading consumer advocacy group accusing him of failing the world by refusing to “challenge Big Pharma’s monopoly control” over lifesaving vaccines.The New York Times reports Zients, a former corporate executive and director of the National Economic Council, will be replaced next month as White House coronavirus coordinator by Dr. Ashish K. Jha, dean of the Brown University School of Public Health and a practicing internist. Zients has been the target of numerous protests by activists, some of whom called for his termination over his lack of scientific and medical experience, his record as a private equity executive, and his failure to take on Big Pharma during the pandemic. “Jeff Zients failed and the world paid the price,” Robert Weissman, president of the consumer advocacy group Public Citizen, said in a statement Thursday.Johanna Kichton of People’s Action—whose Justice is Global project staged multiple demonstrations against Zients—said that he:
- Dissuaded governors from issuing mask mandates during the current Covid-19 surge;
- Killed the White House’s own [Occupational Safety and Health Administration] regulation that would have provided paid quarantine and isolation for most U.S. workers;
- Failed to address massive shortages of affordable rapid tests and KN95 [masks]; and
- Led the White House’s insufficient approach towards addressing inequitable vaccine access globally by prioritizing corporate handouts and donations.
“All of these policies directly led to the current omicron surge and hundreds of thousands of unnecessary deaths and infections, in the U.S. and around the world,” said Kichton.Public Citizen’s Weissman said that “despite promises that the U.S. would be a ‘vaccine arsenal’ for the world, the United States and rich countries refused to share vaccine technology with developing countries and failed to deliver sufficient vaccines.”“The vaccination rate among low-income countries is 14%—about one-sixth the rate in rich nations,” he added. “And even those data disguise the extent to which people in poorer countries are receiving less efficacious vaccines.”Weissman continued:Zients refused to pay appropriate attention to global solutions to the global pandemic, because of political concerns or otherwise. And the Zients-led Covid response refused to challenge Big Pharma’s monopoly control, in the U.S. and globally, over technologies that relied crucially on public support. As a result, the United States and other rich countries failed to expand vaccine supply sufficient to meet global need.“Responsibility for this failure is widely shared among nations, but the United States has a singular leadership role in global health; it has unique capacities and thus responsibilities, and a special duty to lead the world’s response,” he added. “Under the leadership of Covid coordinator Jeff Zients, the United States failed.”
Biden appoints mass infection advocate Ashish Jha as COVID-19 Response Coordinator - On Thursday morning, the White House published a statement by President Biden announcing that Dr. Ashish Jha will replace Jeff Zients as the White House COVID-19 Response Coordinator. The selection of Jha, who has served as a de facto pandemic spokesman for the Democratic Party, underscores that the White House will do nothing to stop the pandemic as the Omicron BA.2 subvariant spreads uncontrolled and all federal pandemic resources dry up. In the statement, Biden summarized why Dr. Jha was chosen, noting that he is “a well-known figure to many Americans from his wise and calming public presence.” Indeed, Jha was chosen because he is a “household name” who over the past two years has been brought onto the broadcast news shows on a near-daily basis to issue soporifics and disarm the population to the immense dangers posed by the pandemic. Anyone who watches the news has endured the complacent nostrums of Dr. Jha in some of his hundreds of appearances that span nearly every corporate media news outlet, including ABC, NBC, CNBC, CNN, MSNBC and more. The corporate media immediately showered praise on Jha Thursday, while whitewashing the roles played by him and Zients. The New York Times characterized Jha as “an outspoken public health expert” and claimed that he “has urged an aggressive approach to the pandemic.” This lie was echoed by The Hill, which said that Jha “ has called for aggressive responses” throughout the pandemic. In reality, Dr. Jha embodies the worst forms of petty-bourgeois careerism, smugness and duplicity. He is the leading representative of a milieu of right-wing, corrupt scientists who have parroted the line of the Democratic Party since Biden took office. These include Drs. Monica Gandhi, Leana Wen, and Vinay Prasad, as well as economist and school reopening advocate Emily Oster, a colleague of Jha’s at Brown University who receives funding from the Koch-affiliated Mercatus Center. Regarding Dr. Jha’s supposed “wisdom,” a brief review of his positions and predictions throughout the pandemic reveal this as a lie cut from whole cloth. From the beginning, he has consistently misled the public and upheld the interests of the corporations and financial elite.
Fauci says COVID-19 cases will likely increase soon, though not necessarily hospitalizations - Over the next few weeks, the U.S. should expect an increase in cases from the BA.2 variant, Dr. Anthony Fauci told ABC News, but it may not lead to as severe a surge in hospitalizations or deaths. "I would not be surprised if in the next few weeks we see somewhat of either a flattening of our diminution or maybe even an increase," Fauci told ABC News' Brad Mielke on the podcast "Start Here." His prediction is based on conversations with colleagues in the U.K., which is currently seeing a "blip" in cases, Fauci said. The pandemic trajectory in the U.S. has often followed the U.K. by about three weeks. However, he added, "Their intensive care bed usage is not going up, which means they're not seeing a blip up of severe disease." The BA.2 variant, a more transmissible strain of omicron, now represents around 23% of all cases in the U.S., according to the latest data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. And while Fauci predicted that the BA.2 variant will eventually overtake omicron as the most dominant variant, it's not yet clear how much of a problem that will be. "Whether or not that is going to lead to another surge, a mini surge or maybe even a moderate surge, is very unclear because there are a lot of other things that are going on right now," Fauci said. Similar to the U.K., much of the U.S. has recently relaxed mitigation efforts like mask mandates and requirements for proof of vaccination. At the same time, people who were vaccinated over six months ago and still haven't gotten a booster shot, which is about half of vaccinated Americans, according to the CDC, are facing continuously waning immunity. It's also not yet clear how long immunity from prior infection will last, Fauci said. Taken together, it's why Fauci and other experts, including CDC Director Rochelle Walensky, have increasingly predicted that elderly people will need a second booster shot soon. The Food and Drug Administration began reviewing data from Pfizer on the safety and efficacy this week, and its advisory panel will debate if and when the additional booster shot is necessary in the coming weeks.
Arizona Democrat tests positive for COVID-19 - Rep. Tom O’Halleran (D-Ariz.) announced on Saturday that he had tested positive for COVID-19 in a breakthrough case of the virus. “Today, after arriving back in Arizona for a district work week, I tested positive for COVID-19. I am fully vaccinated and boosted, and am only experiencing mild symptoms. I am grateful for the medical advances in vaccines and masks that have protected me,” he said in a statement posted to Twitter. “I’ll be masked up and quarantining here in Arizona until I’m cleared to travel again. I’m grateful for all the kind well wishes and looking forward to getting back to work for Arizonans in person soon and virtually even sooner!” Earlier this month, at least three House members tested positive for the coronavirus after attending the House Democratic retreat in Philadelphia: Reps. Madeleine Dean (D-Pa.), Zoe Lofgren (D-Calif.) and Rosa DeLauro (D-Conn.). Several other House members also tested positive — Reps. Jared Golden (D-Maine) and Andy Kim (D-N.J.) — but both had not attended the retreat. Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D-N.H.) also tested positive earlier this month.
Hearing on lawmakers' stock trading ban postponed after chair gets COVID - The Committee on House Administration has postponed its hearing on proposals to ban congressional stock trading after its chair, Rep. Zoe Lofgren (D-Calif.), tested positive for COVID-19. The committee’s spokesperson, Peter Whippy, confirmed the postponement to Insider on Monday, adding that a new date for the hearing, which had been set for Wednesday, hasn’t been scheduled. The hearing was set to consider the Stock Act and examine other proposals to bar stock trading among lawmakers and their families. It comes after an Insider report in December found that 1 out of 10 members of Congress failed to report their stock trades in a timely fashion, and that dozens of lawmakers and staffers had allegedly violated a conflict-of-interest law. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.), who was initially against banning stock trading among lawmakers, came around to the idea after pressure from fellow Democrats and expressed support for the latest plan. Lofgren, 74, shared her COVID-19 diagnosis on Sunday, saying she got tested in accordance with post-travel protocol. Lofgren added she is experiencing mild symptoms and will self-isolate at home, following the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention guidelines. A Democratic staffer told The Hill on Sunday that Lofgren attended a House Democratic retreat in Philadelphia, Pa., this weekend. “As part of regular protocol after travel, I tested for COVID-19 this morning & got a positive result (after testing negative earlier this week),” Lofgren said. “Thanks to protections from being vaccinated & boosted, I'm grateful to only be experiencing mild symptoms.” Lofgren’s diagnosis also comes shortly after fellow Rep. Rosa DeLauro (D-Conn.) shared Saturday that she has tested positive for COVID-19 in a breakthrough case after attending the House Democratic retreat as well.
5-Count Felon JPMorgan Is at the Center of a New, Multi-Billion Dollar Trading Scandal - By Pam and Russ Martens ~ Traders who feel they were robbed of their profits trading nickel last week at the London Metal Exchange (LME) have taken to Twitter to verbally accuse the LME of favoring their “cronies” and behaving like “slime balls.”Lining up as crony suspect Number 1 are units of JPMorgan Chase who, together, hold the largest number of Class B shares in the London Metal Exchange than any other member. Those units are J.P. Morgan Markets Limited with 25,000 shares; J.P. Morgan Metals Limited with 19,100 shares; and J.P. Morgan Securities with 25,000 shares for a total of 69,100 Class B shares, according to a listing of shareholders on the LME’s website.In addition, the CEO of the Hong Kong Stock Exchanges and Clearing (HKEX), which bought the LME in 2012, is Nicolas Aguzin. He joined the HKEX last May after spending 31 years at JPMorgan. Aguzin also serves as a Board Member of the LME, where his bio notes that “from 2013 to 2020, Mr. Aguzin was CEO, J.P. Morgan, Asia Pacific where he was responsible for all the firm’s business across 17 markets.”The reason that both the LME and JPMorgan are taking the heat from traders who say they were “robbed” of their profits, is that one of JPMorgan’s clients – the Chinese nickel and steel producer Tsingshan Holding Group – had secretly built up a massive short position in nickel, using both contracts at the LME and also over-the-counter derivative contracts with JPMorgan and other banks. When the price of nickel began to spike dramatically higher last Tuesday, the banks scurried to try to close out their short positions in nickel by buying back the contracts. That heavy buying pushed the price of nickel to a record $100,000 a metric ton and the banks could no longer afford to keep buying to close their short positions.Bloomberg News has named JPMorgan as the largest counterparty to the Tsingshan trades while the Wall Street Journal has indicated that Standard Chartered and BNP Paribas are also involved.It is believed that at some point last Tuesday the banks came clean with the LME as to what their total derivative exposure was and to the massive losses they would experience if the trading that occurred last Tuesday was allowed to stand. What is not in dispute is that the LME suspended trading in nickel last Tuesday and cancelled all of the thousands of trades that had occurred last Tuesday prior to the suspension of trading. The cancelled trades benefited the short positions but left other traders with profitable long positions out in the cold. (You can read all of the LME’s pronouncements about cancelled nickel trades and the like at this official link.) In addition, to give JPMorgan and the other banks involved time to figure out a solution to their self-made mess, the LME has suspended trading in nickel since last Tuesday. Yesterday, the LME posted a notice stating that “trading in LME Nickel Contracts will resume at 08:00 [a.m.] London time on Wednesday 16 March 2022.”
JPMorgan to lift ban on hiring unvaccinated individuals - U.S.-based multinational financial institution JPMorgan Chase & Co. has announced it will lift its ban on hiring individuals due to their unvaccinated status against COVID-19. In a memo obtained by Bloomberg News, JPMorgan said it will also end mandatory testing for unvaccinated employees by April 4, and the company's mask mandate will become voluntary for both vaccinated and unvaccinated staff. JPMorgan’s memo also noted that the company’s New York City employees are still required to follow the city’s vaccination requirements. The mandate will be required unless the city lifts its vaccine order, according to Bloomberg News. “Across the U.S., as we continue to see cases decline, restrictions lifted and more flexibility with daily activities, we are learning to live with Covid as part of our new normal,” the bank said in its memo to employees. JPMorgan Chase & Co. follows several other large American companies that have lifted prior COVID-19 restrictions. In a memo to its employees, United Airlines announced last week that it will let unvaccinated employees with vaccine-related exemptions return to their full-time jobs by March 28.
But Who’s Money Evaporated when JP Morgan, BlackRock, Pimco, Calpers, Others Report Huge Losses on Russian Assets? By Wolf Richter - Russia’s Central Bank, which had closed the Moscow Stock Exchange on February 25, said over the weekend that the stock exchange would remain closed through March 18 for sure, and that in terms of trading in the following week, the Central Bank would make an announcement “later.” Stocks of Russian companies that traded in London collapsed before trading was halted, such as Gazprom, which had collapsed by 93% by the time trading was halted on March 2. Corporate bonds issued by Russian companies in USD, EUR, GBP, etc. are now facing default as these companies are having difficulties making interest payments to bondholders in foreign currency, or may be blocked by the Russian government to do so and may have to make payments in rubles. What companies will do with maturing bonds that need to be paid off in hard currency remains a question mark. Some debt payments have been made. For example, Norilsk Nickel was cleared by the government to pay the coupon interest of $6.4 million on a $500 million bond, and has now paid that interest in dollars. And it recalled and paid off a different $500 million bond that was due in April. Uncertainty reigns over everything that would have been taken for granted. Funds with large exposure to Russian stocks, such as the JPMorgan Emerging Europe Equity Fund, were frozen on February 28, after Net Asset Values collapsed. Of the top 10 holdings of the JPMorgan Emerging Europe Equity Fund, only two (#7 and #8) are not Russian companies: BlackRock, with about $10 trillion in funds under management, said on March 11 through a spokesperson, cited by the Financial Times, that Russian assets in its funds on February 28 were down to about $1 billion, from $18.2 billion a month earlier, and that the $17-billion plunge was from markdowns of asset values, rather than asset sales. BlackRock didn’t provide details as in which funds these losses occurred. BlackRock’s Ishares Msci Russia ETF [ERUS] collapsed from $41.26 on February 16 to $8.06 on March 3, when trading was halted. The fund’s top holdings were Gazprom (19.7%), Lukoil (14.2%), Sberbank (12.1%), and Norilsk Nickel (5.1%). BlackRock suspended trading of all of its Russian ETFs and of an Emerging Europe fund that is heavily exposed to Russia. BlackRock CEO Larry Fink said on LinkedIn: “This has been a highly complex and fluid situation, and BlackRock will continue actively consulting with regulators, index providers and other market participants to help ensure our clients can exit their positions in Russian securities, whenever and wherever regulatory and market conditions allow.” Pimco funds held at least $1.5 billion in Russian government debt in January and $1.1 billion in bets on Russia through credit-default swaps. Other funds are similarly exposed.
The Fog of War Is Providing a Smoke Screen for Trading Losses at a Dangerously Unreformed Wall Street By Pam and Russ Martens - We received an email alert from the House Financial Services Committee last Sunday indicating that its Subcommittee on Investor Protection, Entrepreneurship and Capital Markets will hold a hearing on March 30 titled: “Oversight of America’s Stock Exchanges: Examining Their Role in Our Economy.”You can file that hearing under too little, too late. At a moment in history when the U.S. finds itself dangerously close to World War III and the U.S. financial system should be projecting itself as powerful and invincible to enemies of the U.S., we’re watching wheels come off a growing number of markets.Congress has been on notice that stock markets in the U.S. were rigged since March 30, 2014 when Wall Street veteran and bestselling author, Michael Lewis, released his book “Flash Boys,” and sat down with Steve Kroft on 60 Minutes to explain exactly how the markets had been rigged. In the interview, Kroft asks Lewis: “What’s the headline here?” Lewis responds: “Stock market’s rigged. The United States stock market, the most iconic market in global capitalism is rigged.”Kroft then asks Lewis to state just who it is that’s rigging the market. Lewis responds that it’s a “combination of these stock exchanges, the big Wall Street banks and high-frequency traders.”It’s just shy of eight years since Lewis wrote the definitive book on the corrupted structure of Wall Street, and yet, Congress has taken no meaningful action to reform it.If Congress needed a more in-depth look at the timeline and mileposts in the corruption of U.S. markets and financial system, Arthur Wilmarth released the seminal book on the subject in 2020, titled: Taming the Megabanks: Why We Need a New Glass-Steagall Act. (You can read our review of the book here.) Congress has taken zero meaningful actions to reform Wall Street since it brought the U.S. to its economic knees in 2008 because much of Congress is receiving large chunks of campaign dough from Wall Street and its outside lawyers, as well as from hedge funds that drop $10 million to a Super Pac as casually as paying for lunch at Milos.
USAA fined $140 million over ‘willful’ Bank Secrecy Act lapses -- USAA Federal Savings Bank will pay a combined $140 million to the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency and the Financial Crimes Enforcement Network for violations of the Bank Secrecy Act.Fincen gave the San Antonio bank an $80 million civil money penalty on Thursday, while the OCC levied a $60 million fine. Both agencies also issued enforcement actions against the bank in connection with violations of anti-money-laundering rules.USAA didn’t report thousands of suspicious transactions, including those of customers who used personal accounts for what appeared to be criminal activity, Fincen said. And from at least January 2016 to April 2021, the bank failed to implement and maintain an anti-money-laundering program that met BSA standards, according to Fincen.
Former FDIC chair Bair urges Biden to add non-Democrats to agency's board — Former Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. Chair Sheila Bair is calling on the White House to fill the two open seats on the agency’s all-Democrat board with Republicans or independents. Otherwise, she said, the longevity of the agency's policymaking could be undercut by the appearance of partisanship. Bair, who led the FDIC from 2006 to 2011 and now serves as the chair of Fannie Mae, said on IntraFi’s Banking with Interest podcast Tuesday that she was troubled by the broader implications of a partisan struggle that culminated in the resignation of the Trump-appointed Chair Jelena McWilliams in early February. “If public partisan battles are erupting at the FDIC, we've got a real problem, because that has not been the tradition of that agency, ever,” Bair said.
It’s time to cut the FDIC board down to size | American Banker - Former Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. Chair Sheila Bair expressed her concerns this week about the recent turmoil at the FDIC which led Jelena McWilliams to resign as chair before the end of her statutory term. The FDIC board, by law, is to be composed of five members, no more than three of whom can be from the same political party.Today, the FDIC board has just three members, all three of whom are Democrats and two of whom are ex officio members serving by virtue of their positions as the head of the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau and the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency.The FDIC board currently has two vacancies due to the Biden administration’s failure to appoint two members from the Republican Party. Chairman Bair urges the Biden administration to act swiftly to nominate two Republicans to serve on the FDIC board, which she believes will likely reduce the partisan battles at the FDIC. Bair also suggests that statutory terms be lengthened for board members at independent agencies, and the chairs of such agencies be protected from being forced out before the expiration of their terms.
Progressives Fall for Crypto-Bros Intelligence-Insulting Claim of “Inclusiveness” - by Yves Smith - Mark Ames pointed out that the left had become clueless about finance, and we’ll soon turn to the latest example, their stunningly naive belief that cryptocurrencies are somehow inclusive. Seriously. I’m sure many of you are already scratching your heads in wonderment, but let’s give Ames his say before returning to the main event: By a quirk of historical bad luck, the American Left has gone two generations without understanding finance, or even caring to understand. It was the hippies who decided half a century ago that finance was beneath them, so they happily ceded the entire field—finance, business, economics, money—otherwise known as “political power”—to the other side. Walking away from the finance struggle was like that hitchhiker handing the gun back to the Manson Family. Sadly the crypto touts have made enough money to fund a lobbying effort in Washington as well as enlisting some mayors as promoters, most notably New York City’s Eric Adams. Two initiatives are underway: a Democratic party initiative to set a regulatory framework for crypto, as well as a Fed inquiry about a digital dollar.The Democrat crypto bill is not likely to pass this year due to intra-party splits. Given the high odds of a Democrat wipeout in the midterms, one has to wonder what becomes of it in 2023. An article earlier this week in Politico describes the fuzzy-headed “progressive” enthusiasm for it:Sen. Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts — who has long led the left’s charge to crack down on banks and Wall Street — has emerged as one of the party’s most vocal cryptocurrency critics, warning that it exposes consumers to danger, is ripe for financial crimes and is an environmental threat because of its electricity usage.But a new generation of progressives — and a number of other senior Democrats — are embracing the startup industry. They’re arguing against regulations that could stifle what proponents say is a new avenue for financial inclusion and a breakthrough alternative to traditional banks…. The stupid, it burns. The high environmental cost alone of crypto alone should make it a complete non-starter for soi-disant progressives.The source of the current round of fluffy-headed thinking seems to be that ‘distributed” “new” and “Internet” are ever and always better than “traditional” and “regulated”. Perhaps the reptile brains of progressives equate “traditional” with “male patriarchy.” However, they seem to forget that “innovation” in finance means “better customer fleecing”. This is not just our view but also that of Paul Volcker, who declared the last bona fide innovation in banking to be the ATM.First, let us start with the fact that crypto does not even remotely approach either a currency or banking. You can’t use to crypto to buy much of anything in the real world except presumably drugs. All the currencies have such volatility versus the dollar and euro that they can’t be considered to be stores of value. Buying a cryptocurrency is akin to buying readily tradeable property, where you can quickly get a bid and a payment. Guns are a close analogy, except gun prices are more stable than crypto and you can’t store a gun on your cellphone. But with guns you have the added benefit of use value, aka personal protection, in the meantime.Before you get to anything approximating a banking system, these crypto players will wind up having to create a lot of new pieces from scratch. Second (which overlaps with the discussion above) is that crypto is more vulnerable to theft and loss. If you keep your crypto on your local devices, you are at risk of hard disk failure. This has happened as many stories of losses of crypto due to computer death or mistaken disposal attest. And the ones that make the press are the big ticket items. For every guy who lost a million dollars, there are easily 100 who lost at least $1000.Third are transaction costs of trading in and out of crypto, which you don’t face when dealing in dollars. And it’s not even clear that you get what you think you are getting. When I buy and sell stocks, I can see the bid-asked spread in pretty much real time at pokey Vanguard from regulated players. No one in crypto is regulated. Even if you see bid-asked prices, you have no idea if they are honestly reported, no idea if the bidders are spoofing. And in any event, bid-asked spreads are higher than for stocks or FX.
What's next after Biden's crypto order | American Banker — President Biden’s long-awaited executive order on cryptocurrency was met with cautious optimism from much of the finance industry, but with so many important details unresolved, it's far from certain what the policy outcome of the order will ultimately be. The March 9 order marks the first time the White House has formally weighed in on cryptocurrency, and although it is, in essence, a plan for the Treasury Department and other regulatory agencies to make a plan, it’s still a watershed moment. It's also a moment when stakeholders can exert influence to shape what the ultimate trajectory of regulation and policy will be. Digital asset advocates are hopeful that regulation will bolster trust (and encourage the U.S. government to more seriously consider its own digital currency), while banks are hoping for clear rules of the road and consumer advocates are hoping crypto can help households underserved by the existing financial system get a leg up and more fully participate in the economy. “What this all means in practice will be the devil in the details,” said Josh Lipsky, a senior director at the Atlantic Council, who previously advised the International Monetary Fund and worked for the Obama White House. “To be regulated is to be legitimized, so it’s a question of who will be on what side of that, and what those regulations will look like.” Crypto advocates were largely happy with the executive order. Instead of solely focusing on risks, the executive order also acknowledged what it sees as cryptocurrency’s potential, quelling some fears. The Blockchain Association called the order “further proof that the crypto ecosystem is now a vital and inseparable part of the national economy.” Markets cheered the move, with bitcoin prices jumping about 10% on Wednesday before coming down on Thursday. And by and large, the crypto order set off a positive reaction from the banking corners of Washington. The Bank Policy Institute lauded the “clarity” more federal action of crypto would bring, and applauded the idea of bringing crypto and fintech startups into a regulatory scheme. The trade group noted that “regulated financial institutions have been stuck on the sidelines waiting for further regulatory action before expanding their digital offerings.” Banks were more tepid on a central bank digital currency, however. The Bank Policy Institute said it believes further research on U.S. digital currency would show that “CBDCs would pose considerable and unavoidable costs to the financial system and economy while producing few, if any, tangible benefits." American Bankers Association President and CEO Rob Nichols said in a statement that the group is “concerned that it clearly directs federal agencies to begin pursuing a central bank digital currency even before determining if a U.S. CBDC is actually ‘in the national interest’ as the order also requires.” What follows is an examination of the near-term and longer-term impacts of the administration's renewed focus on crypto.
U.S. banks haven’t had a ‘digital Pearl Harbor’ yet. Is one coming? - Despite fears over how Russia would respond to Western sanctions, American and European financial systems have continued humming along with no known major, successful cyberattacks on U.S. banks in the intervening weeks.Russia has made one counterattack of sorts with its move to sanction President Biden and other top U.S. officials in a largely symbolic clapback this week, but the constant drone of hacking attempts on American targets has remained largely stable.Even before the U.S. imposed economic sanctions on Russia amid its invasion of Ukraine, the country’s top cybersecurity agency warned of a heightened threat of cyberattacks. Though many experts agree the threat remains, they disagree over its severity and why exactly Russia has not launched any major cyberweapons.
SEC plans to force public companies to disclose greenhouse gas emissions - The Securities and Exchange Commission plans to require all publicly traded companies to disclose their greenhouse gas emissions and the climate risks their businesses face, part of the Biden administration’s broader push to force the private sector to reckon with the dangers of a warming world. Under a groundbreaking new rule the SEC is expected to propose Monday, hundreds of businesses would be required to measure and disclose greenhouse gas emissions in a standardized way for the first time, according to two people briefed on the agency’s discussions who spoke on the condition of anonymity to describe internal deliberations. The move could mark the most sweeping overhaul of corporate disclosure rules in more than a decade, and could put the United States on closer footing with other countries set to begin mandated emissions reporting over the next three years. The new rule could transform the SEC into one of the country’s leading enforcers of climate-related disclosures, a role in which some critics say the Wall Street regulator lacks expertise and authority. Shareholders of public companies are increasingly demanding more information about the risks that climate change could pose to their investments, arguing that mounting climate disasters and environmental regulations could limit the growth of businesses that do not prepare for them. Climate change is already threatening infrastructure in the rapidly warming Arctic, where melting permafrost puts key pipelines and roads at risk. Rising global temperatures have also increased the frequency of fires, floods, hurricanes and other weather disasters, which cost more than $145 billion in 2021, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. At the same time, environmentalists say that the shift to a low-carbon economy poses “transition risks” to companies dependent on fossil fuels. As governments around the world adopt policies aimed at reducing carbon emissions and boosting renewable energy, businesses with significant investments in fossil fuels could wind up with stranded assets.
Has CFPB gained an upper hand in enforcement cases? - The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau in late February issued a procedural rule with little fanfare or press that nonetheless may mark a significant strategic shift in how the agency pursues enforcement — and give it more latitude in tackling what appears to be an increasingly crowded enforcement agenda. Our internal tracking shows that almost all of the CFPB’s pending enforcement actions were originally filed in federal district court, even though the Dodd-Frank Act permits it to pursue enforcement through administrative actions. The updated rule amends the Rules of Practice for Adjudication Proceedings in a number of ways, and notably includes several amendments that could make it easier for the CFPB to litigate claims without the need to resort to filing actions in federal court in the first instance. Director Rohit Chopra has made clear in testimony and in public appearances that the CFPB has a wide range of enforcement priorities, including but not limited to automobile lending, prepaid cards, bank fees, credit reporting and medical debts, to name a few. The updated rule lays out a clearer pathway to enforcement through administrative actions. That could expand the CFPB’s reliance upon a potentially more advantageous forum to pursue its priorities by appearing before administrative law judges. Just as important, the new rule may open a playbook that allows the CFPB to pursue its regulatory agenda at a much faster pace than it could in often-backlogged federal courts. The updated rule does this in a number of important ways. CFPB launches broad review of consumer banking fees - Rohit Chopra, the director of the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, has launched a broad review of fees charged by banks, credit unions, mortgage lenders and fintechs as part of an effort to spur more competition for financial services. Chopra said Wednesday that in many cases total fees exceeded the financial institutions' cost of providing the underlying service, an indication that companies aren't just passing on costs to consumers but are taking advantage of a captive relationship to increase profits. "We are beginning the process of breaking banks’ reliance on these exploitative income streams and making prices and features clear upfront,” CFPB Director Rohit Chopra said in describing his review of so-called "junk fees" charged to consumers. Chopra specifically called out banks for collecting billions in revenue each year by charging so-called “junk fees” that include penalties for late payments, nonsufficient funds and account maintenance.
CFPB expands its authority to punish banks for discrimination - The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau has declared that discrimination associated with any financial product — not just credit — is illegal. The CFPB on Wednesday said for the first time that discrimination on the basis of age, race or sex — regardless of intent — violates the federal prohibition on “unfair, deceptive or abusive acts or practices." It vowed to use its UDAAP enforcement authority to root out discrimination in all consumer financial segments. Under the new policy, the CFPB can now look for discrimination in a wide range of noncredit financial products including payments, deposit and checking accounts, prepaid cards, remittances and debt collection, among others.
Banking committee advances Fed, FHFA nominees after GOP boycott ends — The Senate Banking Committee approved the confirmation of the Biden administration's nominees for the Federal Reserve Board and Federal Housing Finance Agency Wednesday evening, ending a weekslong Republican boycott.In an executive session, the committee voted to advance Jerome Powell as the Fed’s chair, Lael Brainard as vice chair, and Lisa Cook and Philip Jefferson to become Federal Reserve governors. Sandra Thompson, nominated to lead the FHFA, was also cleared for a Senate vote. “This is an historic moment for our country in a whole lot of ways,” Senate Banking Chair Sherrod Brown, D-Ohio, said in opening remarks. “They know economic growth only matters if it shows up beyond corporate balance sheets. And what I love about this team is, not only is it racially diverse and gender diverse — it's experience and ideas diverse.”
MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest Weekly Survey --From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey -Mortgage applications decreased 1.2 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending March 11, 2022.... The Refinance Index decreased 3 percent from the previous week and was 49 percent lower than the same week one year ago. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index increased 1 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index increased 2 percent compared with the previous week and was 8 percent lower than the same week one year ago.“Mortgage rates continue to be volatile due to the significant uncertainty regarding Federal Reserve policy and the situation in Ukraine. Investors are weighing the impacts of rapidly increasing inflation in the U.S. and many other parts of the world against the potential for a slowdown in economic growth due to a renewed bout of supply-chain constraints,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s Associate Vice President of Economic and Industry Forecasting. “After declining two weeks ago, the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage increased last week to 4.27 percent – the highest since May 2019. Rates are now roughly a full percentage point higher than a year ago and continue to hamper refinance activity. Refinances declined for both conventional and government loans.” “Purchase applications slightly increased, with both conventional and VA loan applications seeing gains. The average purchase application loan size remained elevated at $453,200 – the second highest amount in MBA’s survey.”...The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($647,200 or less) increased to 4.27 percent from 4.09 percent, with points increasing to 0.54 from 0.44 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value ratio (LTV) loans. The first graph shows the refinance index since 1990.With higher mortgage rates, the refinance index has declined sharply over the last several months. Refinance activity will likely decline further in the survey next week since mortgage rates increased further this week.The second graph shows the MBA mortgage purchase index
"Mortgage Rates Explode Higher" --From Matthew Graham at MortgageNewsDaily: Mortgage Rates Explode Higher. Anything Quoted Before Right Now is LONG Gone --If you received a mortgage rate quote any time in the past few days or weeks, unless it was at the end of the business day on Monday, March 14th, you're looking at a relic of a bygone era. Print it out and hang it up in the halls of Woulda, Shoulda, Coulda. ... In the very best cases, some lenders are only .125% higher in rate (to put that in perspective, few individual days see bigger moves). Other lenders are closer to 0.25% higher. That puts today in a league with fewer than 10 players over the past decade. The average conventional 30yr fixed rate is easily up and over 4.25% now, with lenders anywhere from 4.375 to 4.625% depending on the scenario.
This is a graph from Mortgage News Daily (MND) showing 30-year fixed rates from three sources (MND, MBA, Freddie Mac) since 2010. The 30-year fixed rate for top tier scenarios was 4.38% today, up from 4.29% on Friday.This is the highest rate since March 2019.Go to MND and you can adjust the graph for different time periods.
Mortgage rates climb back above 4 percent -The 30-year fixed mortgage rate in the U.S. exceeded 4 percent on Thursday for the first time since May 2019. The 30-year rate, the most popular loan package for home buyers, has slowly climbed since hitting a low of 2.77 percent in August, reaching 4.16 percent on Thursday, according to Freddie Mac. The Federal Reserve on Wednesday announced it was raising interest rates to curb high inflation in the country. The Federal Open Market Committee raised the federal funds rate — a benchmark interest rate used by banks for loans on credit cards, automobile loans and mortgages — from 0.25 percent to 0.5 percent. Because of the Fed's action, prospective home buyers will see higher interest rates on mortgage loans, which could push consumers to buy homes sooner to avoid higher interest rates, economists told The Hill this week. Consumer demand for home buying spiked during the pandemic, raising home prices 19 percent last year amid limited housing supply in many places. In Thursday's analysis, Freddie Mac said consumer interest in home purchasing remains strong. "While home purchase demand has moderated, it remains competitive due to low existing inventory, suggesting high house price pressures will continue during the spring homebuying season," the analysis read.
Housing Inventory May Have Bottomed Seasonally - Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Housing Inventory May Have Bottomed Seasonally. A brief excerpt: Last year inventory bottomed seasonally in April 2021 - very late in the year. This year, by this measure, it appears inventory bottomed seasonally at the beginning of March (we need a few more weeks of increasing inventory to confirm this). Inventory is still very low. Compared to the same week in 2021, inventory is down 21.7%, and compared to the same week in 2020, and inventory is down 65.9% from 730 thousand. One of the keys will be to watch the year-over-year change each week to see if the declines are decreasing. Here is a table of the year-over-year change by week since the beginning of the year. Last week I wrote: "Based on the trend, it appears possible inventory bottomed seasonally last week, and will be up week-over-week in the next report." That happened. Now we need to watch if the YoY change continues to decrease. Based on the current trend, it is possible inventory will be up YoY later this year.
Rents for Single-Family Houses and Apartments Blow Out across the US: This Crazy-Hot Rent Inflation is a National Fiasco by Wolf Richter - Market rents for single-family houses and apartments are going haywire, one of the salient features of the current inflationary environment. It has nothing to do with supply-chain snags and factories in China and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine or the price of commodities. This is an inflationary phenomenon that has taken on a life of its own. Landlords – some of them giant companies – believe they can jack up rents, and the giant companies among them tout their ability to do so in their earnings calls. And tenants are paying those higher rents. This is another glaring sign that the inflationary mindset has taken over on both sides. And rental inflation is now in full blowout mode.Rents of single-family houses across the US jumped by 12.6% in January, according to S&P CoreLogic today, based on the repeat-rent method, which tracks rents of the same rental properties over time. That 12.6% spike was the fastest meanest year-over-year spike in the data going back to 2004, and the 10th month in a row of record rent increases. Rent increases varied by market and maxed out in Miami with a ridiculous 39% spike year-over-year:Apartment rents are in full blowout inflation as well. The Zumper National Rent Report, which tracks apartments in multi-family buildings, and does notinclude single-family houses, found that asking rents across the US for one-bedroom apartments spiked by 12.3% in February, compared to a year earlier, and that the median asking rent for two-bedroom apartments spiked by nearly 14%.Zillow’s Observed Rent Index, which tracks apartments and single-family houses, spiked by 17.0% from a year ago, by far the highest in the data going back to 2014:All of the largest 14 metros experienced double-digit year-over-year rent spikes in February. The craziest spike occurred in Miami (+32%, red line), followed by Phoenix (+25%, blue line), and by Atlanta (+20%, brown line). The smallest spike of the largest 14 metros was in Detroit (+11%).The inflation measure CPI is just starting to pick up the market rent increases. The two measures in CPI that track housing costs in apartments and single-family houses – “Rent of primary residence” and “Owner’s equivalent rent of residences” – have started to rise, but they’re lagging market rents. They will, however, catch up partially with market rents over the next two years and will put large-scale upward pressure on CPI (here is my discussion of this phenomenon).Those two CPI measures (green and purple lines) have both passed the 4% mark. And they have a long way to go, in comparison to Zillow’s Observed Rent Index (red line):
NAR: Existing-Home Sales Decreased to 6.02 million SAAR in February --From the NAR: Existing-Home Sales Fade 7.2% in February: Existing-home sales dipped in February, continuing a seesawing pattern of gains and declines over the last few months, according to the National Association of Realtors®. Each of the four major U.S. regions saw sales fall on a month-over-month basis in February. Sales activity year-over-year was also down overall, though the South experienced an increase while the remaining three regions reported drops in transactions.Total existing-home sales, completed transactions that include single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops, sank 7.2% from January to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 6.02 million in February. Year-over-year, sales decreased 2.4% (6.17 million in February 2021)....Total housing inventory at the end of February totaled 870,000 units, up 2.4% from January and down 15.5% from one year ago (1.03 million). Unsold inventory sits at a 1.7-month supply at the current sales pace, up from the record-low supply in January of 1.6 months and down from 2.0 months in February 2021.This graph shows existing home sales, on a Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate (SAAR) basis since 1993.Sales in February (6.02 million SAAR) were down 7.2% from the previous month and were 2.4% below the February 2021 sales rate.The second graph shows nationwide inventory for existing homes.According to the NAR, inventory increased to 0.87 million in February from 0.85 million in January. Headline inventory is not seasonally adjusted, and inventory usually decreases to the seasonal lows in December and January, and peaks in mid-to-late summer. The last graph shows the year-over-year (YoY) change in reported existing home inventory and months-of-supply. Since inventory is not seasonally adjusted, it really helps to look at the YoY change. Note: Months-of-supply is based on the seasonally adjusted sales and not seasonally adjusted inventory.
Mortgage Rates Spike, Home Sales Drop for 7th Month, and Suddenly Here Come the New Listings - OK, the “existing home sales” data released today by the National Association of Realtors was for February, and in February the average mortgage rates were a lot lower than today. In mid-February, the average conforming 30-year fixed mortgage rate had just edged over 4% for the first time since 2019, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s weekly index.According to the daily measure by Mortgage News Daily, the average 30-year fixed rate mortgage hit 4.50% yesterday, the highest since March 2019. Since last fall, the average rate has jumped by 1.5 percentage points, from 3% to 4.5% (chart via Mortgage News Daily): In its report for November, the National Association of Realtors expected the average 30-year mortgage rate to reach 3.70% by the end of 2022. Now it’s only March 2022, and we’re at 4.5% already. This is moving fast. Last month, I speculated that 4% might be the magic number beyond which the housing market is going to feel it.It’s not a secret: As mortgage rates rise, more and more buyers are priced out at these sky-high prices, and they step away from the market.But among buyers who still qualify, rising mortgage rates trigger a mad scramble to buy something “now,” no matter what the price and no questions asked, and they’re waving inspections and are taking huge risks – even NPR aired something like a warning about that yesterday, LOL – to lock in whatever mortgage rates are still available before they rise even further.There is a well-established pattern: Sales activity picks up in the early phases of the cycle of rising mortgage rates, and we saw some of that, but it’s getting impossible for an increasing number of potential home buyers.Sales of previously owned houses, condos, and co-ops in February fell by 7.2% in February from January, and by 2.2% year-over-year, to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 6.02 million homes, the seventh month in a row of year-over-year declines (historic data via YCharts): “Housing affordability continues to be a major challenge, as buyers are getting a double whammy: rising mortgage rates and sustained price increases,” the NAR said in the press release. It pointed out that monthly payments had risen by 28% from a year ago. “Some who had previously qualified at a 3% mortgage rate are no longer able to buy at the 4% rate,” the report said.Home sales peaked in the 2003-2006 era. The current era remains solidly below that peak. The seasonally adjusted annual rate of 6.02 million sales in February was also well below the pandemic peak, but was up from the prior years.
More Analysis on February Existing Home Sales -Today, in the CalculatedRisk Real Estate Newsletter: NAR: Existing-Home Sales Decreased to 6.02 million SAAR in February
Excerpt: When the local data was released, I highlighted the sharp increase in sales in Houston (up 25.6% year-over-year). From the Houston Association of REALTORS® (HAR): February Is a Strong Month for Houston Home Sales: Home sales scored double-digit gains in February, but part of the strong showing was because the statistics compared to last February, when that deadly Texas freeze halted real estate activity for days, and in some cases, even longer. Undistorted by the weather factor were the continued squeeze on inventory, which returned to its all-time low, and pricing, which due to limited supply and ongoing consumer demand, soared to record highs.In February 2022, the only region that showed a year-over-year increase was the South (an increase from the weak sales in 2021 due to the freeze). The other regions were down an average of 6.7% year-over-year compared to the 2.4% reported by the NAR for the entire country....This graph shows existing home sales by month for 2021 and 2022.Sales declined 2.3% year-over-year compared to January 2021. This was the seventh consecutive month with sales down year-over-year....[and on inventory] According to the NAR, inventory increased to 0.87 million in February from 0.85 million in January. Inventory is now just above the record low.There is much more in the post
Housing Starts Increased to 1.769 million Annual Rate in February --From the Census Bureau: Permits, Starts and Completions - Privately‐owned housing starts in February were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,769,000. This is 6.8 percent above the revised January estimate of 1,657,000 and is 22.3 percent above the February 2021 rate of 1,447,000. Single‐family housing starts in February were at a rate of 1,215,000; this is 5.7 percent above the revised January figure of 1,150,000. The February rate for units in buildings with five units or more was 501,000.Privately‐owned housing units authorized by building permits in February were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,859,000. This is 1.9 percent below the revised January rate of 1,895,000, but is 7.7 percent above the February 2021 rate of 1,726,000. Single‐family authorizations in February were at a rate of 1,207,000; this is 0.5 percent below the revised January figure of 1,213,000. Authorizations of units in buildings with five units or more were at a rate of 597,000 in February. The first graph shows single and multi-family housing starts for the last several years.Multi-family starts (blue, 2+ units) increased in February compared to January. Multi-family starts were up 46.5% year-over-year in February. Note: Last year, starts were impacted by the freeze in Texas.Single-family starts (red) increased in February and were up 13.7% year-over-year.The second graph shows single and multi-family housing starts since 1968.This shows the huge collapse following the housing bubble, and then the eventual recovery (but still not historically high). Total housing starts in February were above expectations, and starts in December and January were revised up, combined.
February Housing Starts: Most Housing Units Under Construction Since 1973 - Today, in the CalculatedRisk Real Estate Newsletter: February Housing Starts: Most Housing Units Under Construction Since 1973. Excerpt: The fourth graph shows housing starts under construction, Seasonally Adjusted (SA).Red is single family units. Currently there are 799 thousand single family units under construction (SA). This is the highest level since December 2006.For single family, many of these homes are already sold (Census counts sales when contract is signed). The reason there are so many homes is probably due to construction delays. Since many of these are already sold, it is unlikely this is “overbuilding”, or that this will impact prices (although the buyers will be moving out of their current home or apartment once these homes are completed). Blue is for 2+ units. Currently there are 784 thousand multi-family units under construction. This is the highest level since June 1974! For multi-family, construction delays are probably also a factor. The completion of these units should help with rent pressure.Combined, there are 1.583 million units under construction. This is the most since August 1973.Length of Time from Authorization to Start and from Start to CompletionCensus released the annual data on the length of time from start to completion, and this showed construction delays in 2021.In 2021, it took an average of 7.2 months from start to completion for single family homes, up from 6.8 months in 2020. For multi-family, it took 15.4 months for buildings with 2 or more units in 2021, the same as in 2020 (the long delays will likely show up in the 2022 data since it takes over a year to complete).From Authorization to Start, it took 1.3 months in 2021 for single family homes, up from 1.0 months in 2020, and it took 2.1 months in 2021 for multi-family, up from 2.0 months.
NAHB: Builder Confidence Decreased to 79 in March --The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) reported the housing market index (HMI) was at 79, down from 81 in February. Any number above 50 indicates that more builders view sales conditions as good than poor. From the NAHB: Diminished Future Sales Expectations, Rising Costs Lower Builder Confidence: Ongoing lumber and building material supply-side constraints and rising construction costs and expectations of higher interest rates continue to negatively affect builder sentiment even as buyer demand remains relatively solid. Builder confidence in the market for newly built single-family homes moved two points lower to 79 in March from a downwardly revised reading in February, according to the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB)/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI). This is the fourth straight month that builder sentiment has declined and the first time that the HMI has dipped below the 80-point mark since last September. While builders continue to report solid buyer traffic numbers, helped by historically low existing home inventory and a persistent housing deficit, increasing development and construction costs have taken a toll on builder confidence. The March HMI recorded the lowest future sales expectations in the survey since June 2020. Builders are reporting growing concerns that increasing construction costs (up 20% over the last 12 months) and expected higher interest rates connected to tightening monetary policy will price prospective home buyers out of the market. While low existing inventory and favorable demographics are supporting demand, the impact of elevated inflation and expected higher interest rates suggests caution for the second half of 2022. ... The HMI index gauging current sales conditions fell three points to 86 and the gauge measuringsales expectations in the next six months dropped a whopping 10 points to 70. The component charting traffic of prospective buyers posted a two-point gain to 67. Looking at the three-month moving averages for regional HMI scores, the Northeast fell seven points to 69, the Midwest dropped one point to 72 and the South fell three points to 83. The West moved up one point to 90. This graph shows the NAHB index since Jan 1985. This was below the consensus forecast, and still a strong reading.
Retail Sales Increased 0.3% in February -- On a monthly basis, retail sales were increased 0.3% from January to February (seasonally adjusted), and sales were up 17.6 percent from February 2021. From the Census Bureau report: Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for February 2022, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $658.1 billion, an increase of 0.3 percent from the previous month, and 17.6 percent above February 2021. ... The December 2021 to January 2022 percent change was revised from up 3.8 percent to up 4.9 percent. This graph shows retail sales since 1992. This is monthly retail sales and food service, seasonally adjusted (total and ex-gasoline). Retail sales ex-gasoline were down 0.2% in February.The second graph shows the year-over-year change in retail sales and food service (ex-gasoline) since 1993. Retail and Food service sales, ex-gasoline, increased by 16.1% on a YoY basis. Sales in February were close to expectations, however, sales in December and January were revised up, combined.
Retail sales February 2022 come up short as inflation puts dent in consumer spending --Consumers continued to spend in February though at a slower pace than expected, according to a Commerce Department report Wednesday. Advance retail sales grew 0.3% for the month, slightly below the 0.4% Dow Jones estimate. Stripping out autos, sales were up 0.2%, well below expectations for a 0.9% increase and indicative that after a rapid pace to start the year, consumers were slowing down. The spending numbers were well below the rise in prices, which increased 0.8% in February, according to Labor Department data released last week. Retail spending numbers are not adjusted for inflation. The biggest dent in February's numbers came in online shopping, with nonstore sales down 3.7%. One bright spot in the data released Wednesday is that January spending was revised up to an increase of 4.9%, a blistering pace that was even stronger than the initial estimate of 3.8%. The two-month numbers "suggest that real consumption growth remains reasonably solid" though some headwinds are beginning to show, particularly from expected interest rate increases coming from the Federal Reserve, said Andrew Hunter, senior U.S. economist at Capital Economics. "With real disposable incomes having already been falling since mid-2021, as earlier fiscal support was withdrawn, and the more general surge in prices took its toll, real consumption growth still looks likely to slow over the coming months, particularly when the personal savings rate is already below its pre-pandemic level," Hunter wrote. "It also may not be long before Fed tightening starts to hit spending on big-ticket durables." Consumers, however, remain flush with cash, finishing 2021 with $1.4 trillion in savings though the personal savings rate, most recently at 6.4%, has been coming down steadily during the Covid pandemic era. Demand has been extraordinary for goods over services, and supply has struggled to keep up. That has fueled inflation running at a 7.9% rate on a 12-month basis, the fastest pace in more than 40 years. On a year-over-year basis, retail spending was up 17.6%, the Commerce Department said. The meteoric surge in gas prices has pushed that number to a large degree, with sales at gasoline stations up 5.3% in February and 36.4% from a year ago. Prices at the pump rose about 7% in February alone, according to the Energy Information Administration. Bar and restaurant sales also showed strong gains for the month, up 2.5% and good for a 33% year-over-year increase. Health and personal-care stores saw a 1.8% decline while furniture stores were off 1% and motor vehicle and parts dealers rose 0.8%.
Can you believe the price of gas? States move quickly to help drivers - — Decades-high inflation was already giving Americans a headache. Then came Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, which sent gas prices soaring. Now, blue and red states alike are embracing a solution that makes for great headlines: cutting gas taxes. As federal action languishes on the issue, some states are quickly moving to suspend their own fuel taxes to counter price shocks at the pump. Governors and state lawmakers, in the midst of an election year, say it’s necessary relief for drivers. “The combination of a war and a pandemic — if that’s not an emergency I don’t know what is,” said New York state Sen. Kevin Parker (D-Brooklyn), who chairs the Senate Energy Committee. Not all states are jumping at the chance to lower gas taxes, saying the savings would be small. There’s also pressure from environmentalists and some unions who support the taxes to pay for infrastructure. Still, some lawmakers and governors are clamoring to take action, while those in other states already have. The rush to curtail gas taxes is inviting a multitude of questions. But critics say states might just be hurting themselves and helping oil companies and gas retailers, whose pump prices are often opaque. They warn it may be hard to tell whether tax cuts actually reach drivers in the end.
Skyrocketing gas prices cause severe pain for Californians -While California’s gas prices have long topped national averages, filling up a tank in the Golden State came at nearly $6 a gallon over the past week. These formidable pump prices are hitting some Californians harder than others, with those who drive electric vehicles (EVs) counting their blessings.The average gas price in California was $5.80 per gallon on Friday,according to the American Automobile Association. California’s gas prices tend to be greater than those of the rest of the country due to a combination of factors, including higher taxes and stricter emission laws, as The Hill reported.Prices at the pump have risen so high that they have become a dealbreaker for many of the people who depend on that fuel for their livelihoods. “You really can't make a living too well with Uber, and now with the gas prices going out of sight, it's become even less lucrative than it was,”
Producer Price Inflation Gets Entrenched at 10%, Worst Level in the Data -Today, the Bureau of Labor Statistics released the PPI Final Demand for February, which jumped by 0.8% in February from January, and by 10.0% from a year ago. This marks the fourth month in a row that producer price inflation clocked in at around 10%, and all four months were by far the worst in the data going back to 2010 (red line). And it does not yet include the spike in fuel prices following Russia’s invasion of the Ukraine. That’s still to come. Without food and energy input costs, the “core” producer prices rose by 0.2% for the month and by 8.4% from a year ago, now in the 8.5%-range for the third month in a row. This includes final demand for services, which rose 7.8% year-over-year (green line): That the PPI for Final Demand has now been stuck at about 10% for four months in a row shows that producer price inflation is becoming entrenched at historically high levels. Some components will rise while others will fall in a game of inflation Whac-A-Mole, particularly in the volatile commodities-based components for food and energy. But the persistence of this double-digit PPI inflation is quite something, compared to prior periods. The companies that are having to pay those higher prices are going to pass them on to consumers and other businesses. Passing on higher prices, plus some, is now all the rage, and everyone knows it, and everyone does it, because consumers are still willing to pay whatever, and businesses are also willing to pay because they know they can pass on those higher costs. And these double-digit producer price increases will provide further upward pressure on consumer prices going forward. Over the past two years, the Fed has pissed away every good opportunity to end its money-printing spree, reduce its balance sheet, and start hiking short-term rates, before it ever got this far. Instead, it did everything it could to fuel inflation and created ridiculous excesses in asset prices, that have now started to come apart. The Fed is meeting today and tomorrow and will decide to do way too little, way too late, to engineer some kind of soft landing that it actually could have engineered starting 20 months ago. Now inflation has become a raging fire at all levels, including with producer prices, and the Fed is just now trying to figure out how to pump less gasoline on the fire.
U.S. Egg Prices Rise as Deadly Bird Flu Strikes Ahead of Easter – Bloomberg - Highly pathogenic avian influenza is back in the U.S., forcing farmers to cull flocks and pushing up egg prices at a time of rampant food inflation.The deadly virus has been hitting poultry operations along the East Coast and Midwest, including top producer Iowa, where a farm was recently forced to cull nearly a million birds.
Diesel Spikes to $5.25, Gasoline to $4.32, in Historic Leaps. But Wait a Minute… Futures of Crude Oil & Gasoline Plunge - By Wolf Richter - People are painfully aware of what happened to gasoline prices at the pump over the past two weeks, but what happened to diesel prices is even more astounding. The average retail price of No. 2 highway diesel – to be passed on in the costs of everything that arrives at the house, office, store, construction site, or manufacturing plant – has been rising since November 2020, and on Monday jumped to a record $5.25 a gallon, the US Energy Department’s EIA reported late Monday, based on its surveys of gas stations conducted during the day. And this comes after the prior week’s spike. Over those two weeks, diesel spiked by $1.15, or by 28%! This was by far the biggest two-week spike in the EIA’s data going back to 1994. Diesel is now up 64.5% from the same week last year. The average price of all grades of gasoline at the pump jumped to a record $4.32 a gallon on Monday, according to the EIA late Monday, up by 19.6% over the past two weeks, also the biggest two-week jump in the data going back to 1994. Year-over-year, gasoline was up 51.2%. But wait a minute… Crude oil futures and gasoline futures plunged. Crude oil WTI futures plunged 24% in one week, from over $130 last Monday to $97.96 at the moment, which put it back where it had been on March 1, when it had punched through the $100-mark for the first time since 2014, in white-knuckle volatility that seems to be afflicting everything these days (chart via Investing.com): Still, even after that plunge, WTI remains far higher than it had been over the past seven years. And what a neck-breaker: from minus $37 in April 2020 to a closing high of $127 on March 6, 2022, and now to $97.96: Gasoline futures plunged 21.4% in one week, from a high of $3.87 on March 7 to $3.04 at the moment, which would still be the highest since 2014. And even as gasoline futures plunged over the past week, gasoline retail prices — in the chart above — spiked during the same period (chart via Investing.com). At the tourist gas station in my neighborhood in San Francisco, regular gasoline hit $5.99 a few days ago, and the two higher grades punched through the sound barrier of $6, even as gasoline futures were already plunging, and for now, prices at the pump, which were so record-quick to skyrocket, have turned out to be sticky at these record sky-high levels (photo:#160;
Industrial Production Increased 0.5 Percent in February - From the Fed: Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization Total industrial production rose 0.5 percent in February to a level that is 103.6 percent of its 2017 average. Manufacturing output increased 1.2 percent after having been little changed in each of the previous two months. In February, the index for utilities declined 2.7 percent, and the output of mines edged up 0.l percent. Total industrial production in February was 7.5 percent higher than its year-earlier level, but severe winter weather in February 2021 significantly suppressed industrial activity that month. A more useful comparison shows that the index has advanced a still-strong 4.2 percent since January 2021. Capacity utilization for the industrial sector increased 0.3 percentage point in February to 77.6 percent, a rate that is 1.9 percentage points below its long-run (1972–2021) average. This graph shows Capacity Utilization. This series is up from the record low set in April 2020, and above the level in February 2020 (pre-pandemic). Capacity utilization at 77.6% is 1.9% below the average from 1972 to 2020. This was below consensus expectations. . The second graph shows industrial production since 1967. Industrial production increased in February to 103.6. This is above the February 2020 level. The change in industrial production was at consensus expectations.
Empire State Mfg Survey: Activity Declines in March - This morning we got the latest Empire State Manufacturing Survey. The diffusion index for General Business Conditions at -11.8 was a decrease of 14.9 from the previous month's 3.1. The Investing.com forecast was for a reading of 7.0.The Empire State Manufacturing Index rates the relative level of general business conditions in New York state. A level above 0.0 indicates improving conditions, below indicates worsening conditions. The reading is compiled from a survey of about 200 manufacturers in New York state.Here is the opening paragraph from the report. Business activity declined in New York State for the first time since early in the pandemic, according to firms responding to the March 2022 Empire State Manufacturing Survey. The headline general business conditions index fell fifteen points to -11.8, its lowest level since May 2020. New orders and shipments declined modestly, while unfilled orders increased. Delivery times continued to lengthen substantially, and inventories expanded. Labor market indicators pointed to a modest increase in employment and a slightly longer average workweek. The prices paid index remained very elevated, and the prices received index reached yet another record high. Plans for capital and technology spending remained solid. Looking ahead, firms were slightly more optimistic than last month that conditions would improve over the next six months. [Full report] Here is a chart of the current conditions and its 3-month moving average, which helps clarify the trend for this extremely volatile indicator:
China's Covid-19 curbs hit Toyota, Volkswagen and Apple supplier Foxconn - China's efforts to curb its largest Covid-19 outbreak in two years have forced companies from Apple supplier Foxconn to automakers Toyota and Volkswagen to suspend some operations, raising concerns over supply chain disruptions. Multiple Chinese provinces and cities have tightened restrictions in line with Beijing's zero-tolerance goal of suppressing the coronavirus as quickly as possible, among them the southern Chinese tech hub of Shenzhen. Shenzhen, China's Silicon Valley, is carrying out mass testing after dozens of new local cases were recorded. Officials have suspended public transport and urged people to work at home this week as much as possible. White House press Secretary Jen Psaki said on Monday (March 14) that the Biden Administration was monitoring the lockdown of the tech hub "incredibly closely". "What we're looking at is, of course... the impact on some of these ports around the impacted areas of China," she said in a Monday afternoon briefing. China has reported more local symptomatic Covid-19 cases so far this year than it recorded in all of 2021. Foxconn, formally known as Hon Hai Precision Industry, said its Shenzhen operations would be suspended until further notice, adding that it would deploy backup plants to reduce disruption. Taiwan companies that said they had suspended Shenzhen operations included chip substrate and printed circuit board maker Unimicron Technology, which also supplies to Apple and Intel, and flexible printed circuit board maker Sunflex Technology.
How the Vehicle Production Nightmare Upended Everything and Why Automakers & Dealers Don’t Want the Old Ways Back - Despite the ridiculous price spikes for used vehicles – the CPI for used vehicle retail prices spiked 41% year-over-year in February, and Manheim’s wholesale price index for used vehicles spiked by 38% – there’s no shortage of used vehicles on dealer lots. There is plenty of supply. But new vehicles have been in a historic shortage due to the semiconductor shortages and the ensuing production cuts. And this has changed how the industry operates. The number of used vehicles on lots of franchised and independent dealers in February (purple line in the chart below) rose to 2.62 million vehicles, the highest since December 2020, according to data from Cox Automotive. This was down by 9% from the average inventory in 2019 (2.88 million vehicles).But the number of new vehicles on dealer lots has been hovering at catastrophic lows. In February, dealer inventories edged up to 1.07 million vehicles (red line), which was down by 70% from the average in 2019 of 3.66 million vehicles. The standard metric in the retail industry of days’ supply shows how many days this inventory at the beginning of the month would last at the current rate of sales, with no additional vehicles added to inventory. The metric is a function of both, the number of vehicles in inventory and the number of vehicles sold during the prior 30 days, and it eliminates the effects of inflation on inventories. Used vehicle supply ticked down to 51 days in February mostly due to higher sales in February than in January. This supply of 51 days is above average supply in 2019 of 48 days, and above average supply in 2021 of 41 days. In other words, there is plenty of supply, at the current rate of sales: But new vehicle supply at dealers ticked down to 34 days. Before the pandemic, 60 days’ supply was considered healthy. The average in 2019 was 90 days, which was too high due to the slowdown in new vehicle sales at the time. During the lockdowns in March and April 2020, when sales ground to a near-halt, supply spiked. But then sales picked up again in mid-2020, and the production cuts due to the semiconductor shortages became the #1 problem: Total combined supply of new and used vehicles and of auto parts at dealers, which the Census Bureau reported yesterday for January, declined to 1.24 months (about 37 days’ supply), having stayed in the same catastrophically low range since March 2021, with hardly any improvements.This data from the Census Bureau goes back 30 years, to 1992, unlike the above data sets that only go back to 2019. It shows just how much of an outlier today’s vehicle inventory has been. But by combining new and used vehicles and parts, it papers over the catastrophically low levels of inventories at new vehicle dealers: Automakers and dealers are loving the mega-record per-vehicle gross profits, and they’re loving that customers have stopped haggling and just pay whatever, including over sticker, and they’re loving the large-scale shift by customers to buy via make-to-order, rather than off the lot.This is a system Tesla, which doesn’t have franchised dealers, implemented from get-go. Make-to-order solves all kinds of issues. It solves the problem of some units getting old sitting on the lot and having to be sold at deeply discounted prices. It solves the issues of inventories piling up and dealers being overstocked, such as in 2019, when automakers had to heap costly incentives on the market to get those vehicles over the curb.Manufacturing vehicles that have already been sold is a more efficient way of selling, and both dealers and automakers want to encourage customers to keep doing that. And dealers would love for customers to keep paying MSRP or over MSRP.But they all would like to sell more vehicles at those per-vehicle mega-profits. Which means that automakers will have to be able to get their supply chains straightened out and build more – but they don’t ever want to overbuild again, like they used to, because such inventory gluts cause profits to plunge.
Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Decrease to 214,000 - The DOL reported: In the week ending March 12, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 214,000, a decrease of 15,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 2,000 from 227,000 to 229,000. The 4-week moving average was 223,000, a decrease of 8,750 from the previous week's revised average. The previous week's average was revised up by 500 from 231,250 to 231,750.The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims since 1971. The dashed line on the graph is the current 4-week average. The four-week average of weekly unemployment claims increased to 231,250.The previous week was revised up.Weekly claims were lower than the consensus forecast.
Building back better means raising wages for public-sector workers - The COVID-19 pandemic presented a massive crisis that demanded a large collective response. At times, strong government action—mask mandates, expanded unemployment insurance, stimulus checks, free vaccines—saved lives and livelihoods. At the same time, past underinvestment in public services exacerbated suffering as hospitals were overwhelmed, unemployment claims processing stalled, and schools struggled to adjust to remote learning. Now, thanks to federal recovery funds administered through the American Rescue Plan Act (ARPA) in 2021, state and local policymakers have substantial additional resources to invest in their communities, whether that means preparing for the next unexpected disaster or strengthening the services that help individuals and families through their own difficult times.Investing in these services also means investing in the workers who carry them out, far too many of whom are paid low wages for their valuable work in providing public education, delivering health services and pandemic response, administering programs such as unemployment insurance, keeping our roads and sewers safe, and getting commuters to work. This blog post presents data quantifying and describing these public-sector workers and shows that Black and Latinx employees are especially likely to be paid inadequate wages.The U.S. Department of the Treasury is encouraging states and localities to use federal recovery funds with equity in mind. To advance this goal, states and localities should invest in improving pay for their own employees who ensure social needs are met, especially lower-paid state and local employees, many of whom are women of color.Many of the workers providing public services are paid low wages: As shown in Figure A, we estimate that 5.5 million state and local government employees are paid less than $20 an hour, accounting for about a third (32.7%) of the sector. i About 2.6 million of them, or 15.6% of the sector, are paid less than $15 an hour.While we use $15 and $20 as cutoff points throughout this blog post to describe lower-paid state and local government workers, these should not be seen as the ceiling for policymakers. Raising wages to these levels would just be a start toward ensuring that state and local government workers are able to make ends meet, and that their pay reflects the value of their work to the communities they serve.
Local health officials report threats, vandalism and harassment during the pandemic, study finds - Local health officials handling the day-to-day response to the coronavirus crisis have faced hostility like never before, according to a new study of 1,499 episodes of harassment during the first year of the pandemic. Of 583 local health departments surveyed by Johns Hopkins University researchers, 57 percent reported episodes of staff being targeted with personal threats, doxing, vandalism and other forms of harassment from 2020 to 2021. From the early months of the pandemic, former president Donald Trump, Fox News personalities and right-wing commentators on social media unleashed a wave of criticism and specious claims against Anthony S. Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, and many other officials who were promoting the use of face masks, vaccines, shutdown measures and social distancing. Fauci has faced death threats and has been under stepped-up security protection since 2020. But the threats and denunciations are not limited to federal and state health officials. Beth Resnick, assistant dean for public health practice at the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health and senior author of the study, said federal and state officials are more accustomed to rolling with the punches of politics. “But in these small communities, this is all brand new, it’s really shocking, and it’s never happened before,” Resnick said. For a local health department with two or three employees, losing any employee could be “devastating.” The researchers found that 222 health officials left their posts at local or state health agencies, more than one-third of them alongside harassment reports. The pandemic’s strain was not the only reason for these departures, however, which also included chronic underfunding of health agencies and the increasing partisan polarization in public health. Advertisement Local health officials reported that they abruptly went from being viewed as trusted neighbors to bossy villains in some of their communities and that their expertise on other health issues such as extreme weather events and vaping injuries also had been eroded in the public eye. “Particularly in rural communities, health officials described challenges in being the public representative of a policy that was not always within their authority to decide,” the study says. “Think about if you’re in a small community and you go to the grocery store, and someone starts yelling at you,” Resnick said. “This is really detrimental to our field, to our culture, to our public health community.” Experts said the findings, published Thursday in the American Journal of Public Health, should serve as a wake-up call. The attacks on public health officials, and the ensuing staff drain and recruitment difficulties, may leave Americans more exposed to diseases, pandemics and other communal health risks, they said.
Lawsuit against Google alleges systemic bias against Black employees - A lawsuit filed be a former Google employee on Friday alleged that the company engaged in systemic bias against Black employees and maintains a corporate culture that favors white males. The suit, filed by plaintiff April Curley in a San Jose, Calif., federal court, accuses Google of directing Black employees to lower-level jobs, paying them less and declining them opportunities to advance, Reuters reported.The complaint states that Google maintains a "racially biased corporate culture" that benefits white men.Curley also alleges that Google subjected Black employees to a hostile work environment, forcing them to be questioned by security at its California offices, according to Reuters. Black employees make up 4.4 percent of Google's workforce and about 3 percent of its leadership and technology sector, the lawsuit states, according to the wire service.Curley said she was hired by Google in 2014 to work on an outreach program for historically Black colleges, but that alleged her employment was a "marketing ploy," according to Reuters. The former employee stated that her superiors disparaged her work and stereotyped her as an "angry" Black woman. She said she was fired by Google in 2020 after she and other coworkers started to put together a list of changes they hoped to see the company enact, Reuters reported.
MLB to end regular COVID-19 testing for asymptomatic players --Major League Baseball (MLB) will end regular COVID-19 testing for asymptomatic players, but will retain the option of moving games if area case numbers rise, The Associated Press reported. The league and its players' union, the Major League Baseball Players Association (MLBPA), agreed to the latest COVID-19 protocols for the 2022 season on Tuesday, according to the AP.The protocols say the league intends to “postpone games only if necessary to protect the health and safety of club personnel, players and umpires,” according to the wire service. Games will not be postponed for competitive reasons as long as teams have a sufficient number of players available to substitute for players who cannot play due to COVID-19, the protocols say, according to the AP. Players placed on teams' COVID-19 injured lists will not count against their active rosters.Both sides also agreed that they will avoid rescheduling outdoor games affected by the virus in the opening 30 days of the season as split doubleheaders before April 30. “MLB has the right during the championship season to relocate club(s) to neutral sites, spring training sites or other clubs’ home ballparks, and/or reschedule games contained in the 2022 championship season schedule, if necessary, for health/safety reasons, to comply with governmental restrictions or to complete the schedule,” the league’s 18-page protocols said. “With the consent of the MLBPA (which shall not be unreasonably withheld), MLB also has the right to conduct some or all of the 2022 postseason in neutral sites (including other clubs’ home ballparks), or to delay the start of the postseason in order to reschedule championship season games following the completion of the championship season,” they continued.
City Of Fresno Duped Out Of $400,000 In African Email Scam - The city of Fresno, Calif. has reportedly fallen victim to an email phishing scam, costing the city (and its taxpayers) a whopping $400,000.The scam was based in Africa and took place in 2020. The city is accused of not telling the city council or the public, according to a new article from the Fresno Bee. "Former Mayor Lee Brand’s administration failed to disclose the loss," the report says. Additionally, the Fresno City Attorney’s Office rejected a public records request by The Bee regarding the fraud in December 2021.The city told The Bee that "no records were located", but the news outlet was still able to obtain emails that existed prior to the request.The report says that the fraud was disguised as "as an invoice from a subcontractor working on the construction of the new southeast Fresno police station". Placed on legitimate looking letterhead, only the account numbers on the invoice had been changed. Money was then transferred electronically by a city staffer to the fraudulent account.Email scams have evolved in recent years to include vendor email compromise (VEC) scams, the report says. As was the case in Frenso, the Bee reported that "in a typical vendor email attack, scammers create fake invoices that look exactly like a real vendor’s, but they change the bank account information so that when a payment is issued, the money ends up in the scammer’s account."
South Carolina says it's ready for firing squad executions -South Carolina is ready to carry out executions by firing squad, the state's Department of Corrections said Friday.State officials renovated the Capital Punishment Facility at Broad River Correctional Institution in Columbia "to include the capacity to perform an execution by firing squad," according to a release.The state spent $53,000 on the renovations and is now "ready to carry out an order of execution by firing squad if the inmate chooses this method." The state passed legislation last year that codified execution by firing squad into law. Under the law, South Carolina's primary means of execution is by the electric chair, but death by lethal injection and firing squad are options if available. The law was passed after a decade long pause in executions because the state could not procure lethal injection drugs, The Associated Press reported. The death chamber includes a metal chair with restraints for inmates and bullet resistant-glass has been added between the witness chamber and the death chamber.
Video captures Wisconsin officer kneeling on 12-year-old girl's neck - Surveillance video released by a Wisconsin school district on Friday captured an off-duty police officer kneeling on a 12-year-old girl's neck during a lunchtime fight at a school earlier in the month. The video, taken at a school in Kenosha on March 4, shows police officer Shawn Guetschow breaking up a fight and proceeding to get into a physical confrontation with the girl, The Associated Press reported. Guetschow, who is also a security guard at the school, fell and hit his head on a table before pushing the girl's head onto the ground and kneeling on her neck for around 30 seconds, according to the AP. He then handcuffed her and walked her out of the cafeteria. Jerrel Perez, the father of the girl, is calling for criminal charges against Guetschow, as the type of restraint he used was criminalized in Wisconsin last year. Guetschow resigned from his position as a part-time security guard for the school on Tuesday after the Kenosha Unified School District earlier placed him on paid leave, the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel reported, citing the district's chief communications officer. Perez said his daughter is in therapy and receiving treatment from a neurologist for her injuries, according to the AP.
Virginia school districts push back on Youngkin's plans - The Virginia Association of School Superintendents (VASS), a group that represents the state's 133 local divisions, is speaking out against Gov. Glenn Youngkin's (R) education plans, in particular his efforts to get "divisive concepts" out of the classroom. “We recognize that was a campaign issue. However, we’ve never agreed with that,” VASS President Ben Kiser said, according to The Virginia Mercury. “It’s a topic that’s gained traction — a lot of misinformation, a lot of assumptions and very little research as to what’s actually being done in schools. It just got legs and now we’re trying to respond to it as those campaign positions are now becoming policy and legislation.” “Division superintendents disagree with your assumption that discriminatory and divisive concepts have become widespread in Virginia school divisions without your having involved educators in formulating that position,” the letter sent last week read, according to The Associated Press. It comes shortly after the release of an interim report outlining plans to reverse education equity initiatives, the AP reported. The Thursday letter, written by the VASS board, added that the report's focus on “equal opportunity” instead of “equitable outcomes” could “set public education in Virginia back many years.” Youngkin’s state superintendent, Jillian Balow, argued that the letter negated "the good faith efforts" of the administration. “The letter fails to reflect the good faith efforts of which the secretary and I joined the conversation,” she said in a statement to the Mercury.
Survey reveals mental health crisis among Canada’s international students during pandemic - The COVID-19 pandemic has now claimed over 37,000 lives across Canada and millions worldwide. The more infectious Omicron sub-variant BA.2 threatens to unleash a catastrophic sixth wave as governments in every province and territory remove the few remaining mitigation measures left across the country. The capitalist imperative of prioritizing profits over the protection of human life, on top of record-setting inflation, and years of savage austerity and privatization for health care, education and other public services have taken a terrible toll on the living conditions, physical wellbeing and mental health of workers and young people. In addition to hospitalizations and deaths associated with COVID-19 and the debilitating symptoms of Long COVID, there are alarming signs of increased mental illness in the population, especially among young people. A study of 1,000 international students in Canada from 84 countries conducted by researchers at Carlton University and published on The Conversation found that 55 percent of respondents were at risk of depression and about 50 percent were at risk of an anxiety disorder. Difficulties accessing community and campus supports, online educational resources, culture shock, language barriers and being great distances from family and familiar surroundings, often in conditions of isolation, were cited by respondents as the main problems they faced. Many students said they suffered from loneliness, mental exhaustion, panic attacks and social isolation. International students found it hard to reach school counselling centres, with attempts to make appointments failing due to the high volume of students seeking these services. The survey found that academic and financial stresses were among the greatest challenges students faced. Many students said they had difficulty adjusting to online instruction. At the start of the pandemic, as universities shut down campuses and residences and moved to online learning in order to prevent community transmission of COVID-19, border restrictions prevented international students from returning to their home countries. This stressful situation was compounded by the combined effects of loss of parental or spousal income and loss of wages from off-campus employment. Almost 80 percent of respondents reported that they were either “concerned” or “very concerned” about their ability to pay for education. Surveyed students also pointed to the steep tuition costs as well as the reduction in quality of education, student services and access to campus amenities. As one respondent put it, “…now it feels like I’m paying $10,000 per semester to teach myself.” The precarious economic situation facing international students in Canada is being exacerbated by increases in the cost of living, including a 6.5 percent rise in food prices, forcing many to turn to food banks. Food Banks Canada recorded a 20 percent rise in food bank visits during the pandemic, including 1.3 million visits in the month of March 2021 alone—the largest increase since 2008. Guru Nanak Food Bank, which operates in Surrey, British Columbia, recently told CBC News that 1,500 of their 2,200 food bank members are students.
Maryland to drop college degree requirement for more state jobs - Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan (R) announced an initiative this week to drop college degree requirements for thousands of state jobs. At a news conference on Tuesday, Hogan said he will partner with the state’s departments of Labor and Budget and Management to recruit and market roles for job seekers in their Skilled Through Alternative Routes (STAR) program. Those eligible in the STAR initiative are 25 years of age or older, are active in the labor force, have at least a high school diploma, and have developed their skills through alternative institutions such as community college, apprenticeships, military service and employment. According to the statement, 47 percent of the 2,869,000 workers in the state are considered STARs. “Through these efforts we are launching today, we are ensuring that qualified, non-degree candidates are regularly being considered for these career-changing opportunities,” Hogan said at the news conference. “This is exactly the kind of bold, bipartisan solution we need to continue leading the nation by giving even more Marylanders the opportunities they need to be successful.” A statement on the initiative noted there are currently more than 300 state government jobs that do not require a four-year college degree, with open positions listed online. “There are over 1 million Marylanders who do not have bachelor’s degrees, but do have skills for jobs that are in demand by both the State of Maryland and other employers,” Opportunity@Work CEO and co-founder Byron Auguste said at the news conference. “This will enable more Marylanders to work, learn and earn to their fullest potential and is a promising model for other states and employers to follow,” he added.
Acute COVID-19 severity and mental health morbidity trajectories in patient populations of six nations: an observational study Lancet --Long-term mental and physical health consequences of COVID-19 (long COVID) are a persistent public health concern. Little is still known about the long-term mental health of non-hospitalised patients with COVID-19 with varying illness severities. Our aim was to assess the prevalence of adverse mental health symptoms among individuals diagnosed with COVID-19 in the general population by acute infection severity up to 16 months after diagnosis. […] Findings: The analytical cohort consisted of 247 249 individuals, 9979 (4·0%) of whom were diagnosed with COVID-19 during the study period. Mean follow-up was 5·65 months (SD 4·26). Participants diagnosed with COVID-19 presented overall with a higher prevalence of symptoms of depression (prevalence ratio [PR] 1·18 [95% CI 1·03–1·36]) and poorer sleep quality (1·13 [1·03–1·24]) but not symptoms of anxiety (0·97 [0·91–1·03]) or COVID-19-related distress (1·05 [0·93–1·20]) compared with individuals without a COVID-19 diagnosis. Although the prevalence of depression and COVID-19-related distress attenuated with time, individuals diagnosed with COVID-19 but never bedridden due to their illness were consistently at lower risk of depression (PR 0·83 [95% CI 0·75–0·91]) and anxiety (0·77 [0·63–0·94]) than those not diagnosed with COVID-19, whereas patients who were bedridden for more than 7 days were persistently at higher risk of symptoms of depression (PR 1·61 [95% CI 1·27–2·05]) and anxiety (1·43 [1·26–1·63]) than those not diagnosed throughout the study period. Interpretation: Severe acute COVID-19 illness—indicated by extended time bedridden—is associated with long-term mental morbidity among recovering individuals in the general population. These findings call for increased vigilance of adverse mental health development among patients with a severe acute disease phase of COVID-19.
Sars-Cov-2 Kills T-Cells, Just Like HIV --Is Sars-Cov-2 airborne HIV? Two days ago, an interesting article came out: This article was not written by a bunch of random scientists, but instead was written by people from the Wuhan Institute of Virology, including the infamous batwoman Shi Zheng-Li. Just keep this in mind. It was originally submitted in Sep 2021 and revised in January 2022, so it does not involve Omicron.The article is saying the following:
- Many patients who had severe Sars-Cov-2 had “lymphopenia”, that is, depletion of the all important immune T lymphocyte cells
- This depletion was caused by cellular suicide (apoptosis) of T cells after infection
- In experimental setups involving infecting laboratory cell lines of human T cells, Sars-Cov-2 virus was able to penetrate and infect T cells
- This tropism (attraction to) T cells and ability to infect them was UNRELATED to the usual way Sars-Cov-2 infects other cells, such as lung cells, that express ACE2 and TMPRSS2 receptors, because T cells do not have those receptors.
- Infection of T cells occurs via “LFA-1, the protein [that] exclusively expresses in multiple leukocytes”
- It turns out that HIV’s gp120 protein is the one that “Activates LFA-1 on CD4 T-Lymphocytes and Increases Cell Susceptibility to LFA-1-Targeting Leukotoxin”
- I would like to remind you that HIV’s gp120 protein also was mysteriously transplanted into Sars-Cov-2
- Additionally, gp120 protein is located in the spike protein of Sars-Cov-2, and spike protein is used in all “Covid vaccines”.
So, now we have a full new mystery: Sars-Cov-2 destroys immune T cells just like HIV does, Sars-Cov-2 has a transplanted gp120 HIV insert, and it is that specific gp120 insert that allows HIV to enter lymphocytes via the same LFA-1 receptor!
Delta-omicron hybrid variant identified for the first time --Scientists have confirmed the existence of a new COVID-19 variant that combines mutations from both omicron and delta variants for the first time, and there are reported cases in both Europe and the U.S. The new hybrid variant, unofficially dubbed "deltacron", was confirmed through genome sequencing performed by scientists at IHU Méditerranée Infection in Marseille, France, and has been detected in several regions of France, according to a paper posted to the preprint database medRxiv on Tuesday (March 8). Cases have also been found in Denmark and The Netherlands, according to the international database GISAID. Separately, two cases have been identified in the U.S. by the California-based genetics research company Helix, according toReuters. In addition, about 30 cases have been identified in the U.K., according toThe Guardian. The hybrid variant arose through a process called recombination — when two variants of a virus infect a patient simultaneously, exchanging genetic material to create a new offspring. Scientists say that the "backbone" of the deltacron variant comes from the delta variant, while its spike protein — which enables the virus to enter host cells — derives from omicron, according to the medRxiv paper. "We have known that recombinant events can occur, in humans or animals, with multiple circulating variants of #SARSCoV2," Dr. Soumya Swaminathan, the chief scientist at the World Health Organization (WHO) wrote in a tweet on Tuesday (March 8). Swaminathan highlighted the "need to wait for experiments to determine the properties of this virus." The new variant is believed to have been circulating since January, according to GISAID.Maria Von Kerkhove, the COVID-19 technical lead for the WHO, said in a press conference that so far scientists have not seen any change in the new variant's severity compared to past variants, but that many scientific studies are underway."Unfortunately, we do expect to see recombinants because this is what viruses do. They change over time," Von Kerkhove added. "We're seeing a very intense level of circulation [of SARS-Cov-2]," she said. "We're seeing this virus infect animals with the possibility of infecting humans again."
Pfizer CEO says fourth COVID-19 shot ‘necessary’ due to waning immunity -- Most people will need to get a fourth COVID-19 vaccine dose to be protected from the virus, the head of Pfizer said on Sunday.“It is necessary for most” people, CEO Albert Bourla said during an interview on CBS’s “Face The Nation” when asked if Americans can expect to get annual COVID booster shots every fall.The regimen of two initial doses plus a booster is not able to protect against variants and wanes too quickly in strength, Bourla conceded — making additional shots inevitable.“Right now, the protection that you’re getting from the third [shot], it is good enough — actually quite good for hospitalizations and deaths — it’s not that good against infections, but doesn’t last very long,” he said. Pfizer and other companies are working on shots that will protect against any future variants. “Omicron was the first [variant] that was able to evade, in a skillful way the immune protection that we’re given, but also in all that the duration of the protection doesn’t last very long,” Bourla told host Margaret Brennan.“What we are trying to do and we are working very diligently right now it is to make not only a vaccine that will protect against all variants, including Omicron, but also something that can protect for at least a year.”
Moderna asks FDA to authorize second booster dose for all adults - Moderna announced on Thursday that it had asked the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) for emergency use authorization for a second booster dose of its COVID-19 vaccine for all adults. Moderna said in a press release that it requested the authorization for all adults with the intent that health care providers and the Centers for Disease and Control and Prevention can have flexibility in determining the appropriate use for a second booster shot.It said it made the request based in part on recent data from the U.S. and Israel following the emergence of the highly contagious omicron variant.This comes after Pfizer and BioNTech on Tuesday asked the FDA for emergency use authorization for a second booster dose of their vaccine for adults age 65 and older.The companies said a second booster administered at least four months after an initial booster dose could restore antibody levels to peak post-third dose level, noting that emerging evidence suggests the vaccine's effectiveness against symptomatic infection and severe disease caused by the omicron variant wanes three to six months after receipt of an initial booster. The requests come as COVID-19 cases have been declining around the country following a surge in infections driven by the omicron variant.
Why some Americans haven't gotten COVID yet and why it's not inevitable they ever will: Experts - ABC News When the omicron wave hit the United States, it spread throughout the country like wildfire. Different models estimate that anywhere from 50% to 75% of Americans had been infected with the variant by the end of the surge. Because omicron has shown the ability to cause breakthrough infections despite vaccination status, this has led to fears that everyone will catch the virus at some point. However, it is important to clarify that the COVID vaccines continue to be highly effective in its primary purpose in preventing hospitalization and death. However, public health experts said it's not inevitable Americans who have not gotten COVID yet eventually will, and that there are several reasons people have been able to avoid infection so far, including certain behaviors such as being serious about masking and social distancing, vaccination rates and maybe even genetics. Doctors said there are several reasons millions of Americans have yet to contract the virus. One of those reasons is human behaviors, meaning people take proper precautions to lower their risk of getting infected. "Sometimes people don't get infected because they're extremely cautious," "There are people who have their own health behaviors or are concerned about their own health or their loved ones' health." He continued, "Maybe they have comorbidities … they may be the kind of people who are largely homebound, or not really interacting with others or are particularly careful with things like social distancing and masking, and that certainly can stop a lion's share of infections or certainly decrease the risk to where it's unlikely you'd be infected." These people are also more likely to have been vaccinated and boosted, and the experts said it's impossible to disregard the effect vaccination rates have had on preventing infections among Americans. Dr. Jonathan Grein said there are also social and environmental reasons that could determine why some Americans have been infected and others haven't, including how much time people spend with others and where they interact. "There's probably environmental reasons as well, the virus is probably transmitted more efficiently in certain circumstances like classically the indoor, poorly-ventilated space compared to outside."However, genetics could also be playing a role. Dr. Stuart Ray, a professor of medicine at Johns Hopkins University, said similar circumstances have been seen in people who were at high risk for HIV but did not contract the disease. Although there has not yet been a clearly identified gene, Ray said it's feasible some people are genetically less susceptible to COVID.
COVID cases predicted to rise in coming weeks because of new BA.2 variant - Experts fear that COVID-19 cases in the United States will rise in the next few weeks as the new BA.2 variant continues to spread. Data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention shows BA.2, which is a subvariant of omicron, has been tripling in prevalence every two weeks. As of the week ending March 11, BA.2 makes up 23.1% of all COVID cases in the U.S. compared to 7.1% of all cases the week ending Feb. 26, according to the CDC. Although the original omicron variant still makes up the majority of America’s COVID infections, its prevalence has dropped over the same period, from 74.5% to 66.1%. Dr. Anthony Fauci, the nation’s top infectious disease expert, said given the growing prevalence of BA.2, he expects cases will increase within the next month. "I would expect that we might see an uptick in cases here in the United States because, only a week or so ago, the CDC came out with their modification of the metrics for what would be recommended for masking indoors, and much of the country right now is in that zone, where masking indoors is not required," Fauci told ABC affiliate KGTV Wednesday. Fauci added that he believes BA.2 will become the dominant variant in the country, surpassing the original omicron variant. Several European countries -- such as Finland, France, Germany, the Netherlands and the United Kingdom -- have reported a spike in COVID-19 over the last couple of weeks. In the U.K., 93,943 cases were recorded Wednesday, according to Johns Hopkins University, more than double the 45,303 recorded two weeks earlier. "Europe has been an important sign of what we can expect in the U.S.," said Dr. John Brownstein, an epidemiologist at Boston Children's Hospital and an ABC News contributor. "Rising infections, an increase in variant prevalence and a slow booster rollout is likely a sign of a surge. Whether it will be another wave or small bump, we don’t know yet." Last month, U.K. Prime Minister Boris Johnson announced any remaining COVID-19 measures in England would be dropped so the country could move into a new phase of the pandemic, which he described as “living with COVID.” Several European countries followed suit, as did the U.S., which eased masking guidance for 70% of the country, including for schools.
Omicron BA.2 subvariant threatens to deepen record surge of US child deaths - The staggering rise in child deaths seen throughout the Delta and Omicron waves of the pandemic in the United States continues to reach new heights, with COVID-19 now the leading cause of death by disease in children. According to the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s (CDC) Demographics Data Tracker, there have been 1,656 pediatric COVID-19 deaths as of March 12, 2022. Seventy percent of these (1,156) have occurred since September 2021. Since the start of 2022, a staggering 616 deaths have been added, representing 37 percent of the total. So far this year, each month has been deadlier than the last. The increases during February and March of this year have been particularly dramatic, with the weekly total additions increasing every week for the past six weeks (see graphs 2 and 3). In the first two weeks of March, 226 child deaths were recorded by the CDC, more than all of January or February, at an unprecedented average rate of 18.8 deaths per day. Although this data set does not include dates of death, the increases recorded since the fall coincide with the full reopening of schools and the record infections and hospitalizations of children during this same period. Another limitation of this data is that it does not include location. On Monday, using data from the CDC, health care expert Gregory Travis, who has been tracking the impact of COVID-19 on children, tweeted a graph showing that COVID-19 is now the leading cause of death by disease among children, and the fifth leading cause of death overall among children. Additional evidence continues to emerge dispelling the lie that COVID-19 is comparable to other common respiratory viruses in children, namely influenza and RSV (respiratory syncytial virus). A study published in the JAMA network in late February found that among hospitalized children, those diagnosed with multisystem inflammatory syndrome in children (MIS-C) as a result of a COVID-19 infection had the highest incidence of cardiovascular, hematologic, kidney and gastrointestinal complications, compared with patients diagnosed with COVID-19 without MIS-C, influenza and RSV. Children hospitalized with COVID-19 without MIS-C had the highest rate of neurological complications. The median cost for a hospital stay among children diagnosed with COVID-19 ($10,399) and with MIS-C ($23,585) were approximately 2 and 4.5 times the median cost of an influenza hospitalization ($5,200). The mass infection of children is ongoing. According to the latest “Children and COVID-19” report by the American Academy of Pediatrics (AAP), during the week ending March 10, another 41,631 children were infected and 403 were hospitalized with COVID-19. In total, 12,752,636 children have officially been infected in the US. The report also added another 17 pediatric deaths across 13 states, including three in both New York City and Michigan.
US states shut down daily COVID-19 death reporting - - With public attention preoccupied with the war in Ukraine, the US public health system is systematically shutting down the daily reporting of COVID-19 cases and deaths. In a span of just three days, four states have announced the end of daily COVID-19 data reporting, joining six other states that have ended daily reporting of cases and deaths. This nationwide rollback has been carried out with no public awareness, and there has not been a single national news report, in any major US news outlet, on these moves to shut down regular reporting. Scientists have warned that the cutoff of daily reporting has no basis in public health. “I don’t think there is any scientific reason to reduce disease reporting from the poor levels of today,” said Dr. William Ku, a data scientist and previously a senior lecturer and researcher at Columbia University and MIT. “We have already seen that Omicron can spread rapidly with a doubling time of fewer than 2 days. In a week, cases can grow 10X making it extremely difficult for governments to warn the public to mitigate the spread effectively.” On Wednesday, March 9, the Hawaii Department of Health announced it is “transitioning from daily to weekly COVID-19 data reporting effective immediately.” On Thursday, March 10, Ohio Department of Health Director Bruce Vanderhoff “announced today that the state of Ohio will transition from daily to weekly COVID-19 data reporting at coronavirus.ohio.gov beginning next week.” “Ohio [was] one of only a handful of states that is still reporting COVID-19 data daily,” Vanderhoff said. That same day, Nevada announced that it would end daily COVID-19 reporting, as well as “the removal of the county tracker on the state COVID-19 Dashboard site and an end to detailed investigations of all positive cases,” according to the Associated Press. On Friday, March 11, the South Carolina Department of Health and Environmental Control (DHEC) announced that the state “will transition to reporting COVID-19 data once a week on Tuesdays.” The state “will continue to gradually close its COVID-19 testing vendor sites in several more counties across the state.”
Officials wary of new COVID-19 surge as country relaxes - A new surge in COVID-19 infections in Europe has public health experts concerned the U.S. is not prepared to respond to a similar wave. Much of the country has lifted the few remaining precautions after a sharp decline in cases. U.S. infections are at an eight-month low, but administration officials and health experts are keeping wary eyes on BA.2, the subvariant of omicron fueling the overseas spike. Europe has consistently been a window into America's future throughout the pandemic. A widespread outbreak overseas is usually followed by one in the U.S. several weeks later. The BA.2 version of omicron is not any more severe than the original omicron variant, but it is more transmissible. Combined with relaxed precautions like indoor masking and waning immunity among those who have not received a vaccine booster, experts said they are not surprised to see cases rising in Europe. Administration officials are monitoring the situation overseas carefully because the same conditions exist in the U.S. "I would not be surprised if, in the next few weeks, we do see an uptick in cases," White House chief medical adviser Anthony Fauci said in a Thursday PBS interview. "The really important issue is that, will that be manifested in an increase in severe disease that would lead to hospitalization?" Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) Director Rochelle Walensky said the BA.2 version of omicron has been present in the U.S. since mid-December, but hasn't had a chance to spread widely. "So we aren't seeing this massive takeoff of omicron, of BA.2, but we do anticipate that we will see more and more of it and it may become the predominant variant in the weeks ahead," Walensky said Thursday during a panel discussion with the Bipartisan Policy Center. For the week ending March 12, BA.2 accounted for 23.1 percent of all new coronavirus infections in the United States, according to CDC data, the largest percentage yet. Walensky said she is in touch with colleagues in Europe to discuss hospitalization trends and find out what they're learning as the subvariant of omicron spreads. "In terms of what we're seeing in the U.K. and other countries, all of this is happening also while there's waning immunity ... but then also that the communities and population has opened up. They relaxed many of their mitigation strategies — as have we," Walensky said. The officials' concerns take on additional urgency amid uncertainty about the future of the U.S. pandemic response. More than $15 billion in funding is stalled in Congress amid a political standoff, with no clear path forward. President Biden had initially asked Congress for $22.5 billion in new funding to fight the ongoing pandemic — a figure that was whittled down to $15.6 billion in the face of Republican opposition on Capitol Hill. Republicans have been largely against any new COVID-19 related spending, and some question whether more money is needed at all. They insisted the compromise amount be paid for by clawing back previously allocated state funds. When some Democrats objected, the provision was stripped from a must-pass government funding bill.
Coronavirus dashboard for March 18: the BA.2 variant behaves just like original Omicron - In the last several days, the 7 day average of cases in the US has increased slightly from 30,700 to 32,700. The rate of decline w/w has decelerated to only 10%. Meanwhile, deaths have finally declined to slightly below 1000 at 995. The number of jurisdictions where cases increased week over week has increased to 7 or so in the past several days, compare with 2 or 3 a week ago: All of this suggests that the decline from the BA.1 Omicron wave may be ending, at least temporarily. Like you, I have read in many places about the new BA.2 wave overtaking much of Europe, specifically including the UK, and warning that the same is in store for the US. The truth appears to be more complicated. I spent some time yesterday examining the work of Emma Hodcraft, Ph.D. of the Institute of Social and Preventive Medicine at the University of Bern, Switzerland, on whose data of infection prevalence by variant for many countries and for all jurisdictions in the US is found at Covariant.org. I’m going to discuss it in two parts. The first part is today, below. The data she has collected demonstrate that BA.2 is very much an Omicron, rolling in and out like a tsunami. Like BA.1, the BA.2 variant causes peak infections by or very shortly after it approaches 100% of all infections. Here are graphs for South Africa, India, Denmark, and the Philippines, in all of which the BA.2 variant almost completely replaced BA.1 no later than the end of February (note: BA.1 is dark purple; BA.2 is light purple): Similarly, here is her graph of the US territory of Guam in the Mariana Islands (the only US jurisdiction where BA.2 has completely supplanted BA.1): In every single case, infections peaked shortly before or after BA.2 reached close to 100% of infections. In fact, I examined data from 12 other countries where the BA.2 timeline is similar: Sweden, Norway, Singapore, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Cambodia, Hong Kong (yes, even Hong Kong, where BA.2 hit 90% penetration in mid-February. Cases peaked on March 4, and have fallen by 60% since then), Pakistan, Nepal, the Maldives, Montenegro, and Serbia; and each and everyone showed a peak of infections close in time, and almost all of them were down 75% or more from that peak, in some cases over 95% lower. Here are several graphs showing infections from many of the countries discussed above: [...] Now let’s turn to one of the present scary examples, the UK. According to the most recent UK government data I have seen, BA.2 accounts for 90% or more of all new COVID infections. It should be essentially 100% within about a week. Here is the relevant graph: I found four other countries with similar trajectories: Switzerland, Vietnam, Jordan, and Monaco. In all of them, cases were rising just as in the UK, which is shown below: But in the past few days, the rate of increase in the UK week over week has declined from roughly 60% to 40%. If the UK follows the pattern of the close to 20 other countries I examined, then cases should peak in the UK within several weeks and, like original Omicron, decline sharply. Why have other countries in Europe experienced second Omicron waves, and what does it mean for the US? That is what I will take a look at in the second post on this topic.
Estimating excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic - The Lancet - Mortality statistics are fundamental to public health decision making. Mortality varies by time and location, and its measurement is affected by well known biases that have been exacerbated during the COVID-19 pandemic. This paper aims to estimate excess mortality from the COVID-19 pandemic in 191 countries and territories, and 252 subnational units for selected countries, from Jan 1, 2020, to Dec 31, 2021. Methods Although reported COVID-19 deaths between Jan 1, 2020, and Dec 31, 2021, totalled 5·94 million worldwide, we estimate that 18·2 million (95% uncertainty interval 17·1–19·6) people died worldwide because of the COVID-19 pandemic (as measured by excess mortality) over that period. The global all-age rate of excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic was 120·3 deaths (113·1–129·3) per 100 000 of the population, and excess mortality rate exceeded 300 deaths per 100 000 of the population in 21 countries. The number of excess deaths due to COVID-19 was largest in the regions of south Asia, north Africa and the Middle East, and eastern Europe. At the country level, the highest numbers of cumulative excess deaths due to COVID-19 were estimated in India (4·07 million [3·71–4·36]), the USA (1·13 million [1·08–1·18]), Russia (1·07 million [1·06–1·08]), Mexico (798 000 [741 000–867 000]), Brazil (792 000 [730 000–847 000]), Indonesia (736 000 [594 000–955 000]), and Pakistan (664 000 [498 000–847 000]). Among these countries, the excess mortality rate was highest in Russia (374·6 deaths [369·7–378·4] per 100 000) and Mexico (325·1 [301·6–353·3] per 100 000), and was similar in Brazil (186·9 [172·2–199·8] per 100 000) and the USA (179·3 [170·7–187·5] per 100 000). Interpretation The full impact of the pandemic has been much greater than what is indicated by reported deaths due to COVID-19 alone. Strengthening death registration systems around the world, long understood to be crucial to global public health strategy, is necessary for improved monitoring of this pandemic and future pandemics. In addition, further research is warranted to help distinguish the proportion of excess mortality that was directly caused by SARS-CoV-2 infection and the changes in causes of death as an indirect consequence of the pandemic.
Lancet report shows pandemic death toll is triple the official total - Tracking critical public health statistics like death and their causes is intended, at least in theory, to assist governments in addressing their population’s social needs and assess the response to various measures employed. Public health statistics function as a sort of cartography to locate on a social map the life and wellness of the community and chart a safe course for the inhabitants. Deliberately shutting down the collection of such statistics, as is now being done in the United States, is like a mariner trying to steer his ship blindfolded. It demonstrates that the essential goal of public health measures is being perverted by censorship, not to ensure the wellbeing of the population, but to maintain something even more vital—under capitalism—the profitability of the ruling class. It is determined by political considerations based on class interests. In this context, the recent peer-reviewed study published in the Lancet on global estimates of excess deaths offers a window into the criminal policies that have been employed in country after country for the last two years, with the ruling elite placing profit over life at whatever the cost to their populations. The breadth and scale of the loss of life is immensely revealing, and the reader is encouraged to review the scientific document linked above.It is no hyperbole to compare the devastation caused by the COVID-19 pandemic to World War I, with each wave of infections akin to another bloody and pointless battle slaughtering tens of thousands. Except, in this instance, rather than trenches and frontlines, the battlelines were drawn in the neighborhoods of densely populated cities and towns. In both instances, war and pandemic have been foreseeable, preventable, and, in the final analysis, completely unnecessary. The scale of death during the last two years has been mind boggling, especially as the means to bring the pandemic to an end in mere weeks has always been within grasp. All the resources, technological, scientific, and medical, have been available to end the public health emergency and suppress the virus within weeks of taking that decision. Instead, the mantra continues to be “learn to live with the virus” indefinitely. In the Lancet report, the authors collected data on all-cause mortality from 74 countries and territories and 266 subnational locations, including 31 locations in low- and middle-income nations that had reported the data either on a weekly or monthly basis since the beginning of 2020. These observed mortalities were then compared to expected mortality based on complex “ensemble” modeling that also accounted for regions where mortality records were incomplete. From January 1, 2020, to December 31, 2021, before the Omicron variant had begun its global assault, there were 5.94 million COVID-19 deaths reported worldwide. The new study estimates that excess mortality, above and beyond what would have been seen in a normal period, was more than three-fold higher, at 18.2 million.
Growing Number Of Countries Identify Cases Of 'Deltacron' Variant - A growing number of cases of a hybrid COVID-19 variant dubbed “Deltacron” are being identified, including several cases in the United States. Researchers with Helix, a California-based genomic company, found two cases of COVID-19 infection caused by a hybrid of the Delta and Omicron variants, while researchers in France determined 18 people were infected by the hybrid. Cases have also been detected in the Netherlands and Denmark, according to the World Health Organization (WHO). Delta was the dominant version of COVID-19, in many countries in 2021 but was displaced in most of them by Omicron by the end of the year. Experts so far haven’t seen any difference in the characteristics of patients who are infected with the hybrid and haven’t seen any signs that the Deltacron causes more severe cases of COVID-19, Dr. Maria Van Kerkhove, WHO’s COVID-19 technical lead, told reporters in a recent briefing. “Unfortunately, we do expect to see recombinants, because this is what viruses do, they change over time,” she said, adding later that, “this pandemic is far from over.” In the United States, Helix scientists and collaborators with the University of Washington Medical Center and Thermo Fisher Scientific sequenced 29,719 samples between November 2021 and February 2022 and identified 20 cases where a person was “co-infected” with the Delta and Omicron variants and two additional cases where the infection was pinpointed as being caused by the variant resulting from the recombination of Delta and Omicron. “Our study demonstrates the existence of co-infections, the presence of a recombinant population in at least one of these co-infections, and the existence of two infections consisting almost entirely of multiple copies of a recombinant virus. However, the mechanism by which a recombinant virus comes to dominate an infection remains somewhat of a puzzle,” researchers wrote in the study, which was obtained by The Epoch Times prior to publication. It’s scheduled to be published as a preprint on the server medRxiv in the coming days.
WHO: Weekly COVID-19 deaths down 17 percent, but cases climb The World Health Organization (WHO) announced that the number of new coronavirus deaths declined by 17 percent over the last week, though cases of the virus continue to climb.WHO's weekly report, which was released on Tuesday, revealed that in the last week over 11 million new COVID-19 infections were reported along with 43,000 new deaths. According to that data, the number of deaths related to the coronavirus globally has decreased continually over the last three weeks, The Associated Press reported.The Western Pacific and Africa reportedly saw the largest increase in COVID-19 infections, reporting a 29 percent increase and a 12 percent increase in infections, respectively, the news outlet noted.In the Middle East, Southeast Asia and the Americas, the number of coronavirus cases fell by 20 percent. Case numbers increased in Europe by nearly 2 percent, according to The AP.WHO, however, reportedly noted that the recent data “should be interpreted with caution,” citing that several countries have altered their COVID-19 testing strategies and have begun testing less frequently — a move it said could cause new cases to be undetected.Sweden and other countries including the U.K. have announced in recent weeks that they will no longer carry out widespread testing, the AP reported. In another part of the world, China has restricted people from leaving its northeastern province where the “stealth omicron” variant is creating the country's largest outbreak since the start of the pandemic, AP noted.
China locks down Shanghai and Shenzhen as Omicron BA.2 subvariant surges - Outbreaks of the highly transmissible Omicron BA.2 coronavirus subvariant surged across China over the weekend. According to the National Health Commission, there were 1,938 new confirmed cases of infection on Saturday across 31 provinces. The vast majority of cases, 1,421, were detected in the northeastern province of Jilin. Media reports indicate that the case count nearly doubled to just under 3,400 on Sunday. In response, Chinese authorities have initiated emergency measures to contain the spread of the virus, including mass testing, contact tracing and lockdowns. Residents of Jilin City have undergone six rounds of testing, according to local officials. The neighboring city of Changchun, home to 9 million residents and China’s largest automobile producer, has been put into lockdown. The mayors of both Jilin City and Changchun have been fired in the wake of the virus’ spread, the largest outbreak in China since February 2020. Lockdowns, including the closure of schools, workplaces and nonessential businesses, have also been implemented in Shanghai, home to 25 million people and one of the world’s largest ports, where 64 cases were detected in one day. In Shenzhen, located on China’s border with Hong Kong, its 18 million residents went into lockdown after 60 infections were detected. These lockdowns, part of China’s “Zero COVID” public health policy, have been denounced by the Western media as “draconian” (the Associated Press). Other outlets have been more reserved, such as the Guardian, calling the effort “challenging.” All only acknowledge in passing that, in pursuing such a scientifically guided policy to fight the pandemic, China has only suffered 4,636 coronavirus deaths since December 2019, and only four deaths since April 2020.Nor does the Western media note that previous lockdowns have proven successful. Outbreaks of Omicron earlier this year in Tianjin, population 14 million, and Xi’an, population 13 million, were successfully contained through such stringent measures. It does not require political agreement with the Stalinist government in Beijing to acknowledge these facts. There is concern within China, however, among both the population and public officials, that even the immense public health measures that currently exist will falter in the face of the virulence of the BA.2 subvariant. At a press conference Sunday, Lin Hancheng, a public health official in Shenzhen, warned, “If the prevention and control is not strengthened in time and decisively, it is easy to cause large-scale transmission in the community and a rapid increase in cases.”
COVID-19 quarantine center under construction in Jilin City - People's Daily Online - A COVID-19 quarantine center in Jilin started construction on March 13. Covering an area of about 430,000 square meters, the project is designed with 6,000 quarantine rooms.Northeast China's Jilin Province reported 895 locally transmitted COVID-19 cases, and 131 asymptomatic carriers on Sunday, the provincial health commission said on Monday. Of the newly confirmed infections, 453 were reported in the city of Jilin.
Fear over ‘new bug strain’ Bangkok Post Health experts have sounded the alarm after the discovery of a new mutation of the Omicron coronavirus variant in Hong Kong. Hong Kong has been hit by its worst Covid-19 wave to date, recording the world's highest coronavirus death rate. Dr Chalermchai Boonyaleephan, deputy chairman of a Senate committee on public health, posted on Blockdit that Omicron has mutated into three subvariants (BA.1, BA.2, and BA.3). He wrote that the number of infections and deaths in Hong Kong has reached a record high which has coincided with the emergence of the BA.2.2 subvariant. He said that high numbers of cases make mutation more likely as the chances of deviation during the virus' replication are multiplied. There are currently about 5,000 infections and 30 deaths per million people in Hong Kong each week. That figure dwarfs Thailand's 315 cases and 0.85 deaths, he posted. Despite the larger number of cases, the mortality rate is also higher for those infected with BA.2.2, as apparently evidenced by the current situation in Hong Kong, he wrote. ''It is necessary to keep a close watch on the situation,'' he posted. The Centre for Medical Genomics at Mahidol University, also in a Facebook post, shared the view that the recent outbreak in Hong Kong could have resulted in the BA.2.2 subvariant. Most of the deaths in Hong Kong remain among the elderly and unvaccinated, the centre posted, adding the new subvariant has yet to be found in Thailand. However, Supakit Sirilak, director-general of the Department of Medical Sciences, told the Bangkok Post on Sunday that the Global Initiative on Sharing Avian Influenza Data (Gisaid), the leading database on genomic influenza data, had yet to officially confirm the BA.2.2 as a new variant or cause of the higher tolls in Hong Kong. "Currently, Gisaid has not accepted it. [BA 2.2] has only been referred to as such among Hong Kong scientists," he said. "Actually, another variant named BA.2.3 is found in the Philippines and is much more common than BA.2.2.
Why Omicron Is So Deadly in Hong Kong - For most of the Covid pandemic, life in Hong Kong remained a simulacrum of normal. The city maintained one of the world’s strictest border control measures, requiring inbound travelers to undergo quarantine in hotels for up to three weeks. Small waves of cases were quickly stopped with exhaustive contact tracing, strict hospital-based isolation and supervised quarantine in designated facilities. Mask mandates were introduced but were hardly necessary; masks, for the most part, have been spontaneously adopted by the general public since early 2020. This frenetic city of 7.5 million never locked down. But now Hong Kong is struggling in the face of Omicron. Once the variant found a way past the city’s border controls in January, its high infectiousness meant that widespread transmission was a given. The situation in Hong Kong is revealing because the city had many advantages: deep pockets, a free mass-vaccination program and ample time to prepare for exigencies of local outbreaks. But when the most vulnerable segment of the population remains unvaccinated and scientific facts on vaccine effectiveness are ignored, nothing is enough. Hong Kong has one of the highest population densities in the world, and living space is scarce. Packed housing may have contributed to entire families getting infected. This breakneck spread quickly overwhelmed contact-tracing efforts and isolation facilities. A modeling study estimates that 3.7 million people were infected locally in a matter of weeks. city’s Covid death toll is among the highest recorded at any one time during the pandemic. Emergency rooms are overflowing, hospitals are overwhelmed, and nursing homes are facing devastating outbreaks. As a doctor who has worked in Hong Kong for more than a decade, I found this devastating to witness. How did one of the world’s richest cities end up here, more than two years into the pandemic? The most important factor behind the gruesome death toll is low vaccination uptake among Hong Kong’s elderly population. Since early 2021, Hong Kong residents were offered a choice between two vaccines: an mRNA vaccine (Comirnaty, made by BioNTech and Fosun Pharma) and an inactivated vaccine (CoronaVac, made by the Chinese company Sinovac). Almost immediately after the campaign began, a steady drumbeat of vaccine misinformation began on social media. A small number of deaths that occurred within 14 days of vaccine administration (ruled unrelated to vaccines by investigations) were breathlessly brandished as evidence that the new vaccines were unsafe, especially for elderly people with medical conditions, who, ironically, needed them the most. Moreover, because there’s been a zero-Covid policy, until this year, there had been very few cases in the community. This has likely contributed to further vaccine hesitancy, as Covid-19 was simply not perceived as a credible threat. The public vaccination campaign did not succeed in correcting this distorted risk perception, and incentives for the vaccinated came too late. A vaccine passport for restaurants and indoor activities was rolled out only in February 2022. As a result, vaccine uptake for people 70 and older at the beginning of this year was less than 50 percent. Most Hong Kongers did not contract this coronavirus previously, meaning that vaccinations were effectively the only way to build a wall of protection against severe Covid-19. All this made Hong Kong a ticking time bomb that is now exploding in slow motion.
HK runs out of coffins as Covid deaths surge Asia Times -Hong Kong is trying to import coffins from mainland China as the number of deaths from Covid-19 hits record levels and infection numbers surge.As of Thursday, the total number of Covid cases identified in the Asian financial hub reached nearly one million, while 4,923 deaths have been recorded since the fifth epidemic wave started last December.The University of Hong Kong estimated that 3.58 million people, or 48% of Hong Kong’s population, had been infected as of Monday.Chief Executive Carrie Lam said Thursday that the government would unveil a road map on Sunday or Monday showing how Hong Kong could return to normal life. She said she knew Hong Kong people’s tolerance for anti-epidemic rules was fading while financial institutions were also losing patience.
Covid-19 cases are exploding in Asia. Here’s what it means for the rest of the world. -Across the world, the omicron phase of the Covid-19 pandemic is now piling up towering case counts in places that have largely managed to keep the disease in check until this point. This troubling rise may signal that another wave of Covid-19 is rising in countries just coming out of their own omicron shadows, including the United States.Hong Kong now reports the world’s highest death rate from the disease. Hospitals are overwhelmed and the surge is fueling a mental health crisis and leading to suicides, particularly among elderly residents.Mainland China is also seeing major outbreaks in metropolises like Shenzhen and Shanghai, putting millions of people under lockdown and halting production in major international manufacturing centers. These outbreaks are testing China’s stomach for its zero-Covidapproach to the pandemic, a costly but effective approach where entire cities grind to a halt to control outbreaks.In South Korea, once hailed as a pandemic success story, case counts have broken a new record with daily reported infections topping 600,000.Australia and New Zealand, which had previously held cases to enviably low levels, have also seen new spikes in recent weeks. The list goes on: Singapore, Thailand, Vietnam.There are some common factors among these outbreaks. The biggest one is that the virus itself has changed. The mutations in the omicron variant of the virus that causes Covid-19, first detected in November 2021, make it the most contagious version of the virus known to date and allowed it to evade immunity — both from vaccines and from previous infections — better than other variants. Many of the earlier omicron waves were caused by a subvariant known as BA.1. Another omicron subvariant known as BA.2 is even more transmissible and is now driving a distinct spike in new cases.However, there are also variables that make each of these outbreaks unique, namely how leaders in these regions deployed their public health strategies — testing, contact tracing, travel restrictions, vaccination — and when they relaxed them.
Nearly 1,000 people in hospital with COVID in New Zealand - The Omicron outbreak in New Zealand continues to expand dramatically, leading to increased deaths and hospitalisations, and growing anger among working people. The number of people in hospital with COVID reached 971 today. There are about 20,000 cases being reported per day and roughly 200,000 known active cases, but experts say the real figure is likely far higher. The death toll has more than doubled since the start of the year to 141. This is still low by world standards because for most of the past two years there was practically no COVID-19 in New Zealand. The Labour Party-led government abandoned its zero COVID policy in October 2021. Since then it has removed more restrictions, promising to avoid lockdowns and keep schools and businesses open. The government has embraced a policy of mass infection that has unleashed a preventable disaster. Epidemiologist Michael Baker told Stuff that deaths could soon reach 10 to 20 per day. So far, the record for New Zealand is eight deaths in a single day. The much more contagious BA.2 subvariant of Omicron is now dominant in New Zealand. BA.2 is fuelling a surge internationally, including rising hospitalisations in the UK and record deaths among children in the US. COVID-19 has killed more than 20 million people globally and continues to kill about 50,000 a week. On March 10, the NZ Ministry of Health revealed that it had previously been undercounting COVID deaths due to overly restricted reporting criteria. Following a “reconciliation” of figures, nine deaths not previously recorded were added to the toll. Now, the government is reporting all deaths that occur within 28 days of contracting the virus as COVID-related deaths—the same approach used in the UK and many other countries. The healthcare system is breaking down under high volumes of COVID cases and staff absences due to infection. On Monday, Christchurch Hospital and others in the Canterbury district announced the postponement of almost all non-urgent procedures. Nearly 500 healthcare workers were self-isolating due to COVID. On Tuesday, it was reported that 15 percent of staff at Wellington Hospital were unable to work. In Auckland, the biggest city, hospitals have reported similar absences, and operations have also been cut back. In response to the crisis, the Ministry of Health last week announced a criminally reckless decision to allow hospitals to ask workers to return to COVID wards while they still have the virus.
Previously unknown COVID variant detected in Israel - Two cases of a new COVID-19 variant have been detected in Israel – but the country’s Health Ministry said it wasn’t concerned. The strain, combining two sub-variants of the Omicron variant — dubbed BA.1 and BA.2 — was recorded during PCR tests on two passengers who arrived at Ben Gurion Airport, the Times of Israel reported. “This variant is still unknown around the world,” the ministry said in a statement. “The two cases of the combined strain, which have been discovered so far, suffered from mild symptoms of fever, headaches and muscle dystrophy, and do not require a special medical response,” it said, adding that it will continue to monitor the novel variant. Health Ministry Director-General Nachman Ash told 103FM that the new variant could have originated in Israel.
Faced with a new wave of COVID-19, France ends public health restrictions - An extremely dangerous health situation is emerging in France and across Europe. As the number of COVID-19 infections rises rapidly, states are removing all health restrictions that previously helped to somewhat contain the contagion. The prospect of a huge new wave of COVID-19, driven by new variants, is looming. France’s fifth wave of COVID-19 began in November 2021 following the accelerated spread of the highly contagious Omicron variant across the globe. This wave infected around 17 million French people, i.e., a quarter of the population, peaking at 501,000 daily infections on January 25. The number of cases declined rapidly in February and stabilised in early March at a high level of about 50,000 cases per day in France. Now, however, the number of infections has risen again to 116,618 on Wednesday and 108,832 yesterday in France. A similar trend is evident in Britain (91,345 cases yesterday), the Netherlands (60,263 cases), Belgium (11,180 cases) and Italy (72,568 cases): Their infection curves all began rising again around March 1. Amid media propaganda that Omicron is “benign” and that one has to “live with the virus,” the dismantling of public health measures is well underway. On February 28, the obligation to wear a mask in indoor areas requiring a vaccination pass was abolished. Since March 14, the mask is no longer compulsory, except in public transport, hospitals and old people’s homes. In addition, health protocols in workplaces have ended, and the vaccination pass has been suspended. On February 22 in the Senate, Health Minister Olivier Véran said the March 14 measures would be implemented only if the virus reproduction rate (R) was less than 1, the incidence rate was under 500 per 100,000, and there were fewer than 1,500 COVID-19 patients in intensive care. Now, however, the removal of health restrictions is underway although the incidence rate is 629, 1,855 people are in intensive care and on Sunday the effective viral reproduction rate was above 1. This underscores that the public health criteria proclaimed by the government are smoke and mirrors. In fact, the state is turning to a policy of mass infection in the hypothetical and false hope that repeated waves of infection and mass death will produce herd immunity. The tsunami of Omicron cases has been devastating, killing over 20,000 people in France and 300,000 people in Europe. The milestone of 140,000 COVID-19 deaths was hit in France on March 10. The level of deaths remains high, despite 794 deaths in the last 7 days.
Air pollution linked to higher risk of autoimmune diseases - Long-term exposure to air pollution can increase the risk of autoimmune disease, research has found. Exposure to particulates has already been linked to strokes, brain cancer,miscarriage and mental health problems. A global review, published in 2019, concluded that almost every cell in the body could be affected by dirty air. Now researchers at the University of Verona have found that long-term exposure to high levels of air pollution was associated with an approximately 40% higher risk of rheumatoid arthritis, a 20% higher risk of inflammatory bowel disease such as Crohn’s and ulcerative colitis, and a 15% higher risk of connective tissue diseases, such as lupus. The study, published in the journal RMD Open, took comprehensive medical information about 81,363 men and women on an Italian database monitoring risk of fractures between June 2016 and November 2020. About 12% were diagnosed with an autoimmune disease during this period. Each patient was linked to the nearest air quality monitoring station via their residential postcode. The study analysed average long-term exposure to fine particulate matter (known as PM10 and PM2.5), which is produced by sources such as vehicles and power stations. Concentration levels of 30µg/m3 for PM10 and 20µg/m3 for PM2.5 are the thresholds generally considered harmful to human health. The study concluded that overall, long-term exposure to particulates above these levels was associated with, respectively, a 12% and 13% higher risk of developing an autoimmune disease.
Iowa's third case of bird flu is in an commercial egg-laying facility - Iowa agriculture officials said Friday bird flu was detected in a commercial flock of laying hens in Iowa, the third outbreak the state has experienced in less than a month. The Iowa Department of Agriculture said Friday it has confirmed an outbreak of avian influenza in a commercial egg-laying operation in Taylor County, a southwestern county located on the Missouri border. The state said nearly 920,000 laying hens would be destroyed to prevent the spread of the disease that's highly contagious to other birds. Gov. Kim Reynolds issued a disaster declaration for Taylor County, allowing the state ag department and other agencies to help track, monitor and contain the disease, as well as dispose of birds and disinfect facilities. State officials have quarantined a six-mile circle around the site, to restrict movement in and out of, as well as around the facility, said Chloe Carson, spokesperson for the Iowa Department of Agriculture. They are testing a commercial facility of hens that are less than a year old, known as pullets, that's within the quarantine area. Iowa has experienced two other outbreaks of the virus as it also spreads in other states across the U.S. Officials confirmed the first outbreak March 1, when a backyard flock of 42 chickens and ducks tested positive for highly pathogenic avian influenza; and on Sunday, when 50,000 turkeys in a commercial facility in Buena Vista County tested positive for the virus. All the birds have been killed to contain the disease. State and federal agencies said none of the birds nor any poultry products from flocks where avian influenza is detected will reach U.S. food supplies. No human cases of highly pathogenic avian influenza have been detected in the United States. Iowa Agriculture Secretary Mike Naig said in a statement Friday that the state is working closely with the U.S. Department of Agriculture and livestock producers "to control and eradicate this disease from our state.” Iowa leads the nation in egg production, with 55 million laying hens producing 16 billion eggs annually, and it ranks seventh nationally for turkey production, raising 12 million birds a year. Carson said the state sees no links between the three cases.
USDA confirms bird flu in Wisconsin chicken operation - The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) announced on Monday that bird flu has been found at a commercial chicken operation in Wisconsin,The Associated Press reported. In a statement, the USDA said samples of the flock were tested at a local laboratory, with the results being confirmed at the National Veterinary Services Laboratories in Ames, Iowa. Local farms that raise chickens and turkeys for consumption have been placed on high alert and have taken steps to increase biosecurity amid bird flu findings in multiple U.S. states, according to the AP. The department also said that state animal health officials have quarantined the farm property in Wisconsin’s Jefferson County, adding that all the chickens in the contaminated flock will be destroyed and will not enter the food system. Bird flu, also known as avian influenza, is an airborne respiratory virus that spreads among chickens through nasal and eye secretions and manure. Banking chairman sticking with Raskin despite Manchin opposition Air travel is about to change Farmers fear a repeat of a widespread bird flu outbreak in 2015 that killed 50 million birds across 15 states, costing the federal government $15 million in total losses. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said that the latest bird flu outbreak doesn’t present an immediate health concern, adding that no human cases of the flu have been detected in the U.S., the AP noted. The Hill has reached out to the USDA for comment and more information.
Wisconsin: Bird flu case found in Jefferson County chicken flock — The bird flu has been confirmed at a commercial chicken operation in Jefferson County, the U.S. Department of Agriculture announced Monday. Samples from the flock were tested at the Wisconsin Veterinary Diagnostic Laboratory. State agriculture officials confirmed to WISN 12 News on Wednesday Cold Spring Egg Farm is the infected farm, on Highway 59 in Palmyra. News Chopper 12 flew over the farm Wednesday and saw workers on site dressing in protective suits before going inside. Bird flu cases from the farm were confirmed at the National Veterinary Services Laboratories in Ames, Iowa, the agency said in a statement. State animal health officials have quarantined the property, about 50 miles west of Milwaukee. As soon as WISN 12 News reporter Caroline Reinwald and her photojournalist stepped onto Cold Spring Egg Farm's property, the plant manager asked them to leave. No one from Cold Spring Eggs, or the S&R Egg Farm which owns the farm, responded to WISN 12 News' requests for comment. The state said all chickens in the flock, about 2.75 million, will be destroyed and will not enter the food system. Officials said poultry farms within 6.5 miles of the infected property were being monitored for the virus and restricted from moving poultry and farm products. The Wisconsin Department of Agriculture, Trade and Consumer Protection also issued an order banning poultry from any movement to, or participation in, shows, exhibitions, and swap meets held in Jefferson County. The order will remain in effect through May 31.
Highly Pathogenic Bird Flu Now in Almost a Quarter of U.S. States - Bird flu has been found in backyard flocks in Kansas and Illinois, the United States Department of Agriculture's (USDA) Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service (APHIS) has confirmed.The highly infectious and lethal strain of avian flu has now been discovered in both commercial poultry flocks and backyard flocks in 12 states in the U.S. The USDA said on Saturday that samples from the backyard mixed-poultry flock from Franklin County, Kansas, had been tested at the Kansas State Veterinary Diagnostic Laboratory, while samples from the Illinois flock were tested at the University of Illinois Veterinary Diagnostic Laboratory. The agency added that APHIS is working closely with state animal health officials in both states to respond to the infections. The USDA added that state officials had quarantined the affected premises, and birds from the properties will be depopulated to prevent the spread of the disease and to ensure they will not enter the food system. The virus has also been detected in wild birds in a number of states, with detections causing the closure of bird exhibits and aviaries in Florida. Despite the fact that bird flu has now been detected in the backyard and commercial flocks in almost a quarter of U.S. states, including New York, Connecticut, Iowa, Indiana, Maine, Michigan, and Kentucky, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) maintained that the virus does not present a threat to public health. The CDC said that since 2002 there have been just four detections of bird flu making the rare leap to humans in the United States. Avian flu in humans can potentially cause severe respiratory disease with a high mortality rate. Professor Peter Barlow, chair of immunology and infection at the School of Applied Sciences at Edinburgh Napier University, previously tod Newsweek: "Transmission [to humans] can occur where individuals who have prolonged close contact with infected birds can become infected themselves." "If anyone does get infected with highly pathogenic avian flu it is unfortunately bad news for that person because it tends to cause very severe illness in humans too."
2.8 Million Fowl (Mostly Chickens & Turkeys) Have Died In The First Month Of America's Raging New Bird Flu Pandemic --On top of everything else, now a highly pathogenic avian influenza pandemic is ripping across the United States, and it has already resulted in the deaths of almost 2.8 million birds. Most of the birds that have died have been chickens or turkeys. And since this was just in the very first month of the pandemic, there is no telling how bad it could eventually become. What will the eventual death toll look like? Will it be in the tens of millions? That is definitely a possibility. And what would happen if the bird flu mutates into a version that spreads easily among humans? We might want to start thinking about that, because that is possible too.I knew that the bird flu outbreak was bad, but I didn’t know that it had gotten this bad. The following comes from a prominent farming website…With new outbreaks in Iowa and Missouri, nearly 2.8 million birds — almost entirely chickens and turkeys — have died in one month due to highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI), the Agriculture Department said on Monday. The viral disease has been identified in 23 poultry farms and backyard flocks in a dozen states since February 8, when the first report of “high path” bird flu in a domestic flock was reported. 2.8 million dead birds in just one month. And the number of states that have detected bird flu has actually gone up since that article came out. Nebraska just became the 13th state to detect a positive case of HPAI. To me, one of the most alarming things is that this flu just keeps hitting more commercial flocks. On Monday, officials announced that a commercial flock of turkeys in northwest Iowa had been affected…Officials announced Monday that they have identified bird flu in a commercial flock of 50,000 turkeys in northwest Iowa, the state’s second case of a virus that has been identified in multiple U.S. states.Iowa agriculture officials and the U.S. Department of Agriculture confirmed the case in Buena Vista County, about 100 miles (160 kilometers) north of the case identified March 1 in a backyard flock of 42 ducks and chickens in Pottawattamie County.When one bird in a flock tests positive, all of the birds have to be put down. That is how authorities try to contain the disease. But it just keeps popping up in widely diverse places. Just check out what has taken place within the past few days…In the past few days officials have identified the virus on a southeast Missouri farm with 240,000 broiler chickens, a commercial mixed species flock in southeastern South Dakota and an egg-laying hen operation in northeast Maryland.
Multiple agencies respond after bird flu is found in four Missouri counties - (KY3) - Multiple agencies in Missouri are working to curb the spread of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza after the virus is found in commercial and domestic turkeys and chickens in four counties. According to the Missouri Department of Agriculture, Avian influenza, commonly referred to as bird flu, naturally occurs in bird populations. It’s spread from bird to bird, most often from wild birds and water foul to chicken and turkeys, through “fecal droppings, saliva, and nasal discharges.” The strain that has been discovered is highly pathogenic, so it can spread rapidly from flock to flock, and can be fatal to chickens. On February 8th, bird flu was found in a commercial turkey flock in Indiana. Since then, it has been found in flocks in 15 states, according to the USDA, including Missouri. No cases have been found in Arkansas up to this point. “Missouri is certainly not the only state,” says Christi Miller with the Missouri Department of Agriculture. “Missouri sits on the border between the Mississippi flyway and the central flyway, and we’ve seen it in states on both sides of our borders. We highly encourage commercial producers and backyard producers to increase their biosecurity. Limit the availability of comingling with those wild water foul. Be careful of the footwear and the clothing that you wear when you are working with your birds. This virus spreads very quickly, and it can be carried on footwear from flock to flock. That’s the best way we’re going to get rid of this virus.” Last week, cases were confirmed in flocks of commercial turkeys in Jasper and Lawrence counties. The Missouri Department of Agriculture works with officials from the USDA to prevent further local spread after the virus is found in a flock. “Those birds are euthanized and depopulated,” explains Miller. “And then it’s a matter of cleaning and sanitizing those barns over a matter of time before those barns can be used again to bring in baby birds and repopulate.” The Missouri Department of Conservation says a national multi-agency effort to test wild birds is underway as well. MDC has confirmedwild birds in six counties have tested positive for the virus. The department is telling bird hunters what to keep in mind when they bag birds on their next hunting trip. “Hunters are advised to take common-sense precautions when handling harvested birds in the field or at home,” the Missouri Department of Conservation says on its website. “They should be aware that it is possible to transport avian influenza viruses on boats, waders, or other equipment, especially if it isn’t dry before moving it from one site to another.
Bird flu found in St. Louis County — In St. Louis County, a presumptive positive bird flu case was found in a wild bird, officials with the county's health department said.This is the sixth case of bird flu reported in wild birds in Missouri in Spring 2022 and the first case in St. Louis County, officials said.Bird flu has been detected in the U.S. in recent months in both wild birds and commercial flocks.The bird flu is not an immediate public health threat, a statement from the St. Louis County Department of Health said. Acting director Dr. Faisal Khan said the test marks the importance of health surveillance testing in both animals and people.Dr. Khan said people should take caution if they see sick or dead birds.“Even though HPAI is very rare in humans, it is important to not handle sick or dead birds and report any sick or dead wild birds to the Missouri Department of Conservation,” Dr. Khan said.Any bird can get infected with bird flu, according to the health dept. statement.Infected birds will display neurological symptoms like tremors, head tilting, and the inability to fly or walk properly.
Deadly bird flu now present in Triangle, killing hawk in Wake County — Wildlife officials announced Wednesday that a hawk in Wake County is among four wild birds now known to have died from a highly dangerous strain of bird flu in North Carolina.In January, a "highly pathogenic" or deadly strain of the H5N1 Avian Influenza, carried from Europe by migrating waterfowl, was discovered in Hyde County, a site on the Pamlico-Beaufort county line and a new site in Bladen County, affecting 53 wild birds killed by hunters at those three sites.Those were first wild birds in the U.S. known to have the deadly avian flu since 2016, officials said at the time. The North Carolina Zoo closed its aviary as a result.The N.C. Wildlife Resources Commission on Wednesday confirmed that at least four wild birds have now died from the virus — a snow goose (Hyde County), a redhead duck (Carteret County), a red-shouldered hawk (Wake County) and a bald eagle (Dare County).Dr. Tara Harrison, associate professor of zoo and exotic animal medicine at North Carolina State University's College of Veterinary Medicine, explained that ducks and geese can often carry the virus without becoming sick from it, but they can spread it to other species of birds. The deadly strain kills about 75% of birds exposed to it.Although any bird can get H5N1, NC wildlife health biologist Sarah Van de Berg said songbirds are at lower risk because they rarely interact with ducks and geese, but raptors like hawks and eagles and scavengers like vultures, crows, gulls and ravens can catch the virus by eating infected waterfowl."If those birds are not acting quite right, if they are having neurologic symptoms, like a head tilt, or they're swimming in circles, or they're walking in a way that seems very uncoordinated. Those are all cases that we would want to be alerted to so that we could follow up on them," Van de Berg told WRAL News.If you see five or more dead birds in one area, or even one dead raptor or scavenger, Van de Berg asks that you contact the Wildlife Resources Commission. You can call 866-318-2401, or send an email to HWI@NCwildlife.org. "We'll have a biologist get back in touch with you and and follow up from there," she said.Backyard chickens are also at high risk for the virus, Harrison said. "Good biosecurity" can help, she said, like washing your hands frequently and changing shoes if you're coming into their pen. Officials recommend keeping backyard chickens inside right now, but Harrison notes chickens may not appreciate that.“Most people with pet chickens or backyard chickens usually have a fenced in pen connected to it. And that would probably be a good area that they could go to. But realize that there is a bit of risk with that. I would definitely recommend not letting your chickens free range right now," she said. "Don't let people visit your chickens that have other chickens. Don't bring in new chickens right now."Harrison also recommends that backyard chicken owners remove bird feeders and do their best to keep the birds away from wild birds, especially waterfowl.
Second bird flu outbreak in Suffolk in 24 hours - BBC News --A second outbreak of bird flu has been detected in Suffolk in 24 hours. The H5N1 strain was found at premises near Thelnetham , on the border with Norfolk, the Department of Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (Defra) said. The latest outbreak - the tenth in East Anglia - follows a discovery at premises near Redgrave. A Defra map showed four avian influenza control areas were in force in the region, where bird owners must take extra measures to limit contagion. Each includes a 3km (2 mile) protection zone and 10km (6 mile) surveillance zone around the premises where the virus has been detected. In addition, an Avian Influenza Prevention Zone (AIPZ) requiring all owners - including those with backyard chickens - to keep their flocks indoors, applies across the UK. A Defra map showed a number of avian influenza protection zones in close proximity. About 35,000 ducks had to be culled at a Gressingham Foods site less than 3km (2 miles) away from the latest case after an outbreak earlier this month. Other businesses affected include Banham Zoo, which had to close its bird walkthrough areas to visitors because it lies in the surveillance zone. The H5N1 influenza virus is highly contagious and spreads easily within poultry flocks. On its website Defra said: "The UK is tackling its largest ever outbreak of bird flu with nearly 100 cases confirmed across the country since the start of November."
Ohio bald eagles test positive for bird flu; 3 bird deaths reported in state – WHIO TV 7 and WHIO Radio - The Ohio Department of Natural Resources said three birds, including two bald eagles and a herring gull, have died and since testing positive for bird flu. The “highly pathogenic avian influenza” was detected in the birds from northwest Ohio after testing at the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s National Veterinary Services Laboratory. >> Man accused in multi-state killing spree facing charges for decade-old Miami Valley homicide “The Division of Wildlife is working closely with the Ohio Department of Agriculture, the U.S. Department of Agriculture, and other state and federal agencies to monitor HPAI,” ODNR said in a statement. “The virus does not present an immediate public health concern but avoid handling sick or dead birds as a precaution.” The USDA considers the version of bird flu discovered in Ohio as a serious disease and requires rapid response because it is highly contagious and often fatal to chickens, according to the agency. The herring gull was confirmed to be positive for the virus on Mar. 9 in Erie County and the bald eagles were confirmed to have the virus in Ottawa County on Mar. 11 and Mar. 15. ODNR said there are additional tests that are still pending. Ohioans can report sick or dead wild birds at 800-WILDLIFE (945-3543) or on wildohio.gov. ODNR says the following birds should be reported: • Any raptor, such as a bald eagle. • Multiple waterfowl, such as geese or ducks. • Any other large congregation of sick or dead birds. The virus is transmitted from bird to bird through feeding and other interactions.
Bird flu found in two more Kansas counties - State officials say a strain of bird flu has shown up in two more Kansas counties.The Kansas Dept. of Agriculture announced Friday that samples show cases of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) in two non-commercial backyard mixed-species flocks (poultry), one in Dickinson Co. and the other in rural Sedgwick Co.The disease previously was detected in a backyard flock in Franklin Co. and has been reported in other parts of the country as well. Its presence in Kansas had area zoos announcing precautions this week to keep it from impacting their birds.KDA has quarantined the affected locations, and the birds will be removed to prevent disease spread. Agriculture officials are urging anyone involved with poultry production - whether small and private, or large and commercial - to take measures to ensure their birds are healthy. The KDA Division of Animal Health offers guidance on its web site at agriculture.ks.gov/AvianInfluenza. According to KDA, HPAI is a highly contagious viral disease that can infect chickens, turkeys and other birds. It can cause severe illness or sudden death. Symptoms may include coughing, sneezing, nasal discharge, and respiratory distress; lack of energy and appetite; decreased water consumption; decreased egg production; incoordination; and diarrhea. Some birds may show no symptoms.The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, says the recent HPAI infections do not present an immediate public health concern. No human cases have been detected, and birds and eggs from infected flocks will not enter the food system.
First case of ‘highly pathogenic’ bird flu confirmed in New Hampshire – Boston 25 News— The USDA has confirmed the presence of “highly pathogenic avian influenza” in Rockingham County, New Hampshire. The samples were confirmed in a backyard flock of birds. The CDC says HPAI is a serious disease and requires rapid response because it is highly contagious and often deadly to chickens. “The property was quarantined and birds from the flock euthanized... The birds will not enter the food system,” according to a statement from the NH Department of Agriculture, Markets & Food. This is the first confirmed diagnosis of HPAI in domestic birds in New Hampshire. Other cases have recently been found in Maine, Connecticut, and New York. “No cases of this particular strain of the avian influenza virus have been detected in humans in the United States. According to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, recent detections of this strain of influenza in birds in New England and other states present a low risk to the public.” Officials say they are working with federal officials on additional surveillance and testing in areas around the affected flock. “It is highly recommended that anyone involved with poultry production—from the small backyard to the large commercial producer--review their biosecurity activities to assure the health of their birds,” according to the statement from the NHDAMF.
Bird flu case forces killing of 5.3 million chickens in Iowa - ABC News-- The confirmation of bird flu at another Iowa egg-laying farm will force the killing of more than 5 million chickens, state officials said Friday. It's the second confirmed case of avian influenza in Buena Vista County, about 160 miles (257 kilometers) northwest of Des Moines, but the latest outbreak is at an operation with 5.3 million chickens. The earlier case was at a farm with about 50,000 turkeys. The latest case confirmed by the state Department of Agriculture means nearly 12.6 million chicken and turkeys in at least eight states have been killed or will be destroyed soon. Spread of the disease is largely blamed on the droppings or nasal discharge of infected wild birds, such as ducks and geese, which can contaminate dust and soil. Infected wild birds have been found in at least 24 states, and the virus has been circulating in migrating waterfowl in Europe and Asia for nearly a year. The first Iowa case was identified on March 1 in a backyard flock of 42 ducks and geese in Pottawattamie County in western Iowa. Another egg-laying chicken farm with nearly 916,000 birds was reported with the virus on March 10 in Taylor County in southwest Iowa. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said the cases in birds do not present an immediate public health concern. No human cases of the avian influenza virus have been detected in the United States. It remains safe to eat poultry products. Cooking of poultry and eggs to an internal temperature of 165 ˚F kills bacteria and viruses.
Birds euthanized at animal sanctuary due to avian flu - Dozens of birds at an animal sanctuary in New Hampshire were euthanized after an outbreak of a highly pathogenic avian flu strain.WMUR-TV reports state officials said it’s the first confirmed diagnosis of the strain in domestic birds in New Hampshire, and the owners of Pumpkin Wall Farm animal sanctuary in Derry said they’re devastated. State workers were at the animal sanctuary Friday euthanizing what the owners estimated to be about 80 of their birds.There have been outbreaks in other New England states and around the country since January, but mostly in backyard farms and chicken operations.The first case in Maine was identified in a backyard flock in February and the second case was discovered days later in another backyard flock.The virus is often spread to domestic poultry by infected wild birds.Rhode Island’s House of Representatives passed a bill this week to allow the state to set up a quarantine area to prevent the movement of domestic animals or products when there is a suspected case of a contagious animal disease, such as bird flu.State environmental officials requested the change to help them respond to the current outbreak of avian influenza. They said that while this strain does not affect humans, it is lethal to birds and can wipe out an entire flock.At Pumpkin Wall Farm, five turkeys suddenly died this week. Owner Brendena Fleming said wild ducks carrying the disease landed in their pond and infected the flock. She said she contacted the state veterinarian, who determined they had avian flu.The rest of her chickens, ducks, geese and turkeys then had to be euthanized.
Pollen season getting worse and starting earlier due to climate change, study finds - Climate change has already made allergy season longer and pollen counts higher, but you ain't sneezed nothing yet. Climate scientists at the University of Michigan looked at 15 different plant pollens in the United States and used computer simulations to calculate how much worse allergy season will likely get by the year 2100. It's enough to make allergy sufferers even more red-eyed. As the world warms, allergy season will start weeks earlier and end many days later - and it'll be worse while it lasts, with pollen levels that could as much as triple in some places, according to a new study Tuesday in the journal Nature Communications. Warmer weather allows plants to start blooming earlier and keeps them blooming later. Meanwhile, additional carbon dioxide in the air from burning fuels such as coal, gasoline and natural gas helps plants produce more pollen, said study co-author Allison Steiner, a University of Michigan climate scientist. It's already happening. A study a year ago from different researchers found that from 1990 to 2018, pollen has increased and allergy season is starting earlier, with much of it because of climate change. Allergists say that pollen season in the U.S. used to start around St. Patrick's Day and now often starts around Valentine's Day. The new study found that allergy season would stretch even longer and the total amount of pollen would skyrocket. How long and how much depends on the particular pollen, the location and how much greenhouse gas emissions are put in the air. With moderate cuts in greenhouse gas emission from coal, oil and natural gas, pollen season would start 20 days earlier by the end of the century. In the most extreme and increasingly unlikely warming scenario, pollen season in much of America will start 40 days earlier than when it has generally started in recent decades.
Pollen season could be longer, more intense as climate changes, study finds -As the climate warms, allergy season in the U.S. could get worse. Pollen season could start up to 40 days earlier and last 19 days longer by the end of the century if carbon emissions go unchecked, according to a study published Tuesday in the journal Nature Communications. That would increase annual pollen emissions in the U.S. by as much as 40 percent. Using historical pollen data and predictive climate models, the researchers were able to paint a picture of how and when plants and trees could release pollen in the coming decades. Experts note that overall, every region in the U.S. has experienced longer and more intense allergy seasons for the past 30 years.“Pollen seasons are starting a lot earlier than they did in the 1990s. They are longer and have about 20 percent more pollen in the air,” said William Anderegg, an associate professor of biology at the University of Utah, who was not involved with the new study. Patrick Kinney, a professor of environmental health at Boston University School of Public Health, said the new findings “suggest that the trends that we are already observing will continue into the future.”
Tree Planting Is Booming. Here’s How That Could Help, or Harm, the Planet. -- As the climate crisis deepens, businesses and consumers are joining nonprofit groups and governments in a global tree planting boom. Last year saw billions of trees planted in scores of countries around the world. These efforts can be a triple win, providing livelihoods, absorbing and locking away planet-warming carbon dioxide, and improving the health of ecosystems. But when done poorly, the projects can worsen the very problems they were meant to solve. Planting the wrong trees in the wrong place can actually reduce biodiversity, speeding extinctions and making ecosystems far less resilient. Addressing biodiversity loss, already a global crisis akin to climate change, is becoming more and more urgent. Extinction rates are surging. An estimated million species are at risk of disappearing, many within decades. And ecosystem collapse doesn’t just threaten animals and plants; it imperils the food and water supplies that humans rely on. Amid that worsening crisis, companies and countries are increasingly investing in tree planting that carpets large areas with commercial, nonnative species in the name of fighting climate change. These trees sock away carbon but provide little support to the webs of life that once thrived in those areas. “You’re creating basically a sterile landscape,” “If people want to plant trees, let’s also make it a positive for biodiversity.” There’s a rule of thumb in the tree planting world: One should plant “the right tree in the right place.” Some add, “for the right reason.” But, according to interviews with a range of players — scientists, policy experts, forestry companies and tree planting organizations — people often disagree on what “right” means. For some, it’s big tree farms for carbon storage and timber. For others, it’s providing fruit trees to small-scale farmers. For others still, it’s allowing native species to regenerate. The best efforts try to address a range of needs, according to restoration experts, but it can be hard to reconcile competing interests. “It’s kind of the Wild West,” There is not enough land on Earth to tackle climate change with trees alone, but if paired with drastic cuts in fossil fuels, trees can be an important natural solution. They absorb carbon dioxide through pores in their leaves and stash it away in their branches and trunks (though trees also release carbon when they burn or rot). That ability to collect CO2 is why forests are often called carbon sinks.
Carole King calls on Congress to crack down on logging industry - Carole King on Wednesday called on Congress to crack down on the logging industry during a House Oversight and Reform subcommittee hearing centered on forest management and reducing wildfires. “They continue to facilitate felling mature trees under the guise of Orwellian euphemisms: thinning, fuel reduction, salvage, management, and the ever-popular restoration,” the singer-songwriter said told the panel. Commercial logging is one of the ways the U.S. Forest Service prevents wildfires — along with prescribed burns and thinning — but advocates say that these methods are more harmful than helpful. King warned that the industry’s rhetoric persuades the public into thinking that logging is a safe and effective form of forest management that helps in part to prevent wildfires, when it actually puts forests at risk and strips back protections against carbon emissions and climate change. “Clear cuts are tinderboxes,” King said. “Coal, oil and gas get a lot of attention, but logging is also a huge emitter of carbon, and taxpayers have been subsidizing clear-cutting in our national forests under multiple presidents from both parties for decades. It’s institutional.” King urged lawmakers to pass the Northern Rockies Ecosystem Protection Act, a measure she has expressed support for in the past, which she called “bold and visionary.” She also urged lawmakers to pass a law requiring the forest service to incentivize preservation and repeal logging provisions in the recent Bipartisan infrastructure law, a notion she has expressed support for in an op-ed for The Hill.. Those logging funds should then be re-allocated to home hardening, or the process of making homes more fire resistant, King said.
White House starts key ESA 'critical habitat' review - The Fish and Wildlife Service this week stepped closer toward erasing a Trump administration rule that crimped the Endangered Species Act’s definition of “critical habitat.” On Tuesday, records show, the federal agency, along with NOAA Fisheries, submitted a long-awaited ESA rule for final White House review. Once the Office of Information and Regulatory Affairs has done its thing, it will be go time for one of the environmental community’s priorities. “The Endangered Species Act has saved hundreds of irreplaceable plants and animals from extinction, but it could be doing so much more good,” Stephanie Kurose, a senior policy specialist at the Center for Biological Diversity, said in a statement. Kurose added that “despite the law’s remarkable success, the services have been reluctant to fully implement it, succumbing to years of political and industry pressure to weaken what is the only hope for imperiled species.” On Tuesday, the same day the federal agencies handed the ball to White House reviewers, the Center for Biological Diversity filed a sweeping petition urging FWS and NOAA Fisheries to take a variety of actions. The petition, according to the environmental group, “calls on the services to holistically address the threat of climate change, reduce illegal political interference that undermines scientific integrity, strengthen law enforcement and add new measures to ensure accountability for extractive industries that harm the habitats of endangered species.” The proposed federal rule now at the White House, while significant, is considerably more focused than that broad call for action. Instead, it would cancel the Trump administration’s December 2020 final rule adding a definition of the term “habitat” to the existing ESA regulations. That new rule, for the first time, stated that “for the purposes of designating critical habitat, habitat is the abiotic and biotic setting that currently or periodically contains the resources and conditions necessary to support one or more life processes of a species.” Under the ESA, critical habitat is considered “essential for the conservation of the species.”
EPA: 'Forever chemicals' in pesticide barrels may be illegal - The presence of so-called forever chemicals in pesticides may stem from a violation of federal chemical law, according to an announcement today from EPA.In an open letter this morning, EPA announced several actions amid an ongoing investigation scrutinizing plastic containers fluorinated with PFAS. Those chemicals have leached into pesticides, an issue the agency linked to high-density polyethylene (HDPE) barrels last year.Now, EPA says the contamination may constitute a violation of the Toxic Substances Control Act, which regulates chemicals nationwide. EPA issued the letter to HDPE manufacturers, processors and other relevant parties, informing them that the presence of per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances may fly in the face of federal law. The chemicals can be formed as byproducts in the containers.“As the agency continues to determine the potential scope of the use of this fluorination process outside of its use for pesticide storage containers, EPA is issuing this letter to notify industry of their statutory obligations under TSCA and to help prevent unintended PFAS contamination,” the agency wrote.Assistant Administrator for the Office of Chemical Safety and Pollution Prevention Michal Freedhoff touted the action in a statement emphasizing EPA’s moves to protect the public.“Today’s action will help ensure that responsible parties are held accountable for any future PFAS contamination affecting communities,” Freedhoff said.EPA has been investigating the container issue since last December, when the nonprofit group Public Employees for Environmental Responsibility found elevated levels of PFAS in pesticides sprayed in Massachusetts, including Anvil 10+10, a widely used mosquito repellent (E&E News PM, Jan. 15, 2021). Subsequent tests found PFAS present in additional pesticides, while EPA testing confirmed that the chemicals were in Anvil 10+10, with implications for a number of states (Greenwire, March 26, 2021). The manufacturer of Anvil has since changed the barrels it uses for the pesticides.The agency’s efforts soon showed that the chemicals had not intentionally been added to the pesticides. Instead, they had leached into the pesticides from the HDPE barrels used to transport them.
As drought deepens, Californians are saving less water - California will end winter in a perilous position as record-shattering dryness converges with lagging water conservation efforts in nearly every part of the state, officials said Tuesday. After months of cutting back, new data from the State Water Resources Control Board show that rather than conserving water, Californians increased urban water use 2.6% in January, compared to the same month in 2020—the baseline year against which current savings are measured. The cumulative savings from July—when Gov. Gavin Newsom called on Californians to voluntarily cut water use by 15%—to the end of January were just 6.4%, less than half the target. Officials said more must be done to prevent worst-case drought scenarios, including increased restrictions and mandatory water cuts. "These numbers are a good wake-up call that we need to buckle up and get going," conservation supervisor Charlotte Ely told reporters Tuesday morning. The numbers hearken back to California's punishing 2012-2016 drought, when then-Gov. Jerry Brown ordered a mandatory 25% reduction in urban water use. Californians came close to meeting that goal, and many of their water-saving habits remain. But conditions today are more extreme than even in the recent past. January and February, typically the heart of California's wet season, were the driest ever recorded, with only about three-quarters of an inch of precipitation, said state climatologist Michael Anderson. The previous year to hold that record, 2013, saw about twice that amount. During a board meeting Tuesday, Department of Water Resources Director Karla Nemeth said California needs to receive about 4 more inches of precipitation before month's end or it will end up being the driest January-February-March stretch on record—an increasingly likely scenario.
Drought-stricken California imposes new round of water cuts (AP) — California’s urban water users and farmers who rely on supplies from state reservoirs will get less than planned this year as fears of a third consecutive dry year become reality, state officials announced Friday. Water agencies that serve 27 million people and 750,000 acres (303,514 hectares) of farmland, will get just 5% of what they’ve requested this year from state supplies beyond what’s needed for critical activities such as drinking and bathing. That’s down from the 15% allocation state officials had announced in January, after a wet December fueled hopes of a lessening drought. But a wet winter didn’t materialize and unless several more inches of rain falls this month, the January-March period will be the driest start to a California year at least a century. That’s when most of the state’s rain and snow typically falls. Mandatory restrictions on using water for outdoor activities like landscaping and other purposes may come from local water agencies as they continue to grapple with limited supplies, said Karla Nemeth, director of the California Department of Water Resources.
Spirit of The Mist, Drowned in the Desert - We are forecast to gather another 0.30 inches of rainfall to round out the quarter of the first of 2022 to bring our quarterly total to the lowest in ten years for Central Texas. For perspective, the ten year low was 2014 with a 5.83 inches of precipitation leading into the planting season of spring, the height came in 2020 at 18.07 inches. We will likely round out the end of March 2022 at a mere 5.67 inches. Our average is 12.10.The National Interagency Fire Center has been keeping records since 1983. Ten million acres of land have burned three times during the keeping of those records for the United States. All have occurred in the past seven years, 2020, 2017, 2015. Through multi-decadal periods of record keeping, trends can be seen over the almost 40 years. The past ten years 7.52 million acres have burned on average every year, 6.53 the decade before that, 3.6 million during Clinton, 2.75 million acres on average in the 80s. Year round fire command centers are now permanent establishments.The Ogallala complex had 30% of it’s wells go dry in 2020. By 2070 the entire complex, the largest underground store of fresh water in the United States will be 70% depleted, or even faster. The aquifer that I pump from for my crop also supplies drinking water to the city of San Antonio. A 684 mile pipeline costing billions is proposed to pump groundwater from the Texas Panhandle to Dallas. T. Boone Pickens sold his water rights under his 200,000 acre ranch to Amarillo area some years ago. His ranch sits atop the Ogallala. Not that many years ago Dallas was in deep trouble, a city projected to house 13 million people soon. All a distant memory as Texas to South Dakota keep pumping. Rains may come. The water wars certainly have. Pour the ocean into your cup. Mulled wine to finish. To water the grapes and the farmer, 200 million kilowatt-hours will be consumed each day per desalination plant. Two gallons of ocean are poured into one gallon of tap in the Middle East, as energy prices are cheap, cheap, cheap. Processes are getting better, as time and research allows. Consumption and lack of reuse are at all time highs. Burnt oil as well. Since 1960, half of tropical forests, carbon sinks, have been cut down, or burned. I suppose we envision a world depleted, over consumed, barren. Or maybe no vision at all.
Flooding delays Australia's grain exports -Storms and flooding in Australia's New South Wales (NSW) state interrupted canola and wheat loading last week at the key grain export ports of Newcastle and Port Kembla, while continuing to disrupt rail deliveries, as demand for the country's grains grows because of the conflict in Ukraine. Grain loading terminals across Australia are booked out for several months ahead. Some ports and grain logistics companies are looking to book extra shipping slots. But extreme weather on the east coast and congestion on the west coast has left few opportunities to meet the additional demand for Australian grains.Heavy rainfall across NSW has caused delays and damage to rail lines to Port Kembla, which is one of the largest bulk grain export terminals in NSW. The network between Moss Vale to Unanderra also remains closed affecting train movements to Port Kembla. Shipments had already been delayed by port restrictions because of the weather and further delays are expected following damage to the rail lines, which will not be fixed before 16 March. Disruptions at the port of Newcastle are more minimal, with short delays in loading shipments caused by heavy rainfall and heavy seas.The Brisbane terminals in Queensland state have resumed operations after being closed on 28 February because of flooding but are still restricted, slowing the flow of sorghum for bulk and containerised exports.GrainCorp's port terminals at Brisbane, Newcastle, Port Kembla, Geelong and Portland on the east coast of Australia have no spare shipping capacity until the new season begins in October. Queensland's Mackay terminals has 85,000t available from April until the first half of June, while the Gladstone port terminal has 80,000t available from the first half of May through to the second half of September.Western Australian grain logistics firm CBH has no spare shipping allocations at the Geraldton, Kwinana, Albany and Esperance ports before October, despite it offering an additional 540,000t of shipping capacity and Covid-19 restrictions on ship crews easing. South Australian Grain Logistics firm Viterra has no available capacity until July at its Port Adelaide facilities, while it has just 15,000t available to ship out of a capacity of 270,000 t/month. Availability picks up from August and September where spare tonnage ranges from 35,000t to 98,000t.
Ukraine: How the Global Fertilizer Shortage Is Going to Affect Food - We are currently witnessing the beginning of a global food crisis, driven by the knock-on effects of a pandemic and more recently the rise in fuel prices and the conflict in Ukraine. There were already clear logistical issues with moving grain and food around the globe, which will now be considerably worse as a result of the war. But a more subtle relationship sits with the link to the nutrients needed to drive high crop yields and quality worldwide.Crops are the basis of our food system, whether feeding us or animals, and without secured supply in terms of volume and quality, our food system is bankrupt. Crops rely on a good supply of nutrients to deliver high yields and quality (as well as water, sunlight and a healthy soil), which in modern farming systems come from manufactured fertilizers. As you sit and read this article, the air you breath contains 78% nitrogen gas – this is the same source of nitrogen used in the production of most manufactured nitrogen fertilizers.However, to take this gas from the air and into a bag of fertilizer takes a huge amount of energy. The Haber-Bosch process, which converts nitrogen and hydrogen into ammonia as a crucial step in creating fertilizers, uses between 1% and 2% of all energy generated globally by some estimates. Consequently, the cost of producing nitrogen fertilizer is directly linked to the cost of fuel. This is why the UK price of ammonium nitrate has climbed as high as £1,000 per tonne at the time of writing, compared to £650 a week ago.Fertilizer inputs to farming systems represent one of the largest single variable costs of producing a crop. When investing in fertilizer, a farmer must balance the return on this investment through the price they receive at harvest. Adding more fertilizer, for a small improvement in yield, might not pay for itself at harvest.This calculation between the cost of fertilizer and the value of the crop produced – the “breakeven ratio” – is typically around six for a cereal crop (6kg of grain needed to pay for 1kg of nitrogen fertilizer), but with the rise in fertilizer prices it is currently around ten. To remain profitable, farmers will need to keep a particularly close eye on production costs, and potentially use less fertilizer. However using less fertilizer will reduce yields and quality, adding to pressure on the food system as a whole.
A strong Polar Vortex collapse event has now begun, breaking down the stratospheric winter circulation, as we head into the Spring season » A Polar Vortex collapse event is starting in the stratosphere, with the Polar Vortex splitting apart and breaking down. This event will push the Polar Vortex beyond the point of recovery, terminating it until the next cold season. The collapse event will translate into the weather patterns in the coming weeks. The Polar Vortex is a very powerful short-to-medium term weather driver during the cold season and into spring. It has a strong connection all the way from the ground up into the higher levels of the atmosphere. For this reason, it is crucial to monitor the activity high above in the stratosphere. Currently, the Polar Vortex has begun a strong collapse event down from the higher levels of the atmosphere. First, we will quickly and simply learn what the Polar Vortex really is and why is it so important. Then we will analyze the latest development and break down the weather changes relating from the Polar Vortex collapse, into April and towards the Summer 2022 season.
At least 60 homes buried after part of a hill collapses in northern Peru (videos) At least 60 homes were buried by a landslide in La Libertad, a mountainous area of northern Peru around 08:30 LT on March 15, 2022. At least 7 people are missing and there are fears there could be dozens buried under the rubble. The slide took place in the Cinco Esquinas sector, the Retamas district of the province of Pataz, after a period of intense rains."We estimate that between 60 and 80 homes have been affected by the landslide. There are many people trapped," Manuel Llempen, the governor of La Libertad said.1The slide happened in an area that is home to mining workers and not safe for the construction of houses.While there were no confirmed fatalities as of noon local time, that least seven people have been reported missing and there are fears there could be dozens buried under the rubble.2Llempen said it takes approximately 16 hours to get to the region by road."There are quite a few people buried. We do not have enough support to be able to rescue them quickly," said Carlos Alberto Valderrama, the commissioner of Retamas.
Saharan dust storm transforms skies and landscapes in parts of Europe (videos) A Saharan dust storm has transformed skies and landscapes in parts of Europe on Tuesday, March 15, 2022. The dust plumes have already reached northern Europe and are now crossing the Atlantic Ocean toward South America. Image credit: NOAA/GOES-16, Zoom.Earth, TW. Acquired at 17:00 UTC on March 15, 2022
Smoke from major wildfires destroys the ozone layer, study shows -- A new study shows that smoke from wildfires destroys the ozone layer. Researchers caution that if major fires become more frequent with a changing climate, more damaging ultraviolet radiation from the sun will reach the ground.Atmospheric chemists from the University of Waterloo found that smoke from the Australian wildfires of 2019 and 2020 destroyedatmospheric ozonein the Southern Hemisphere for months. The ozone shield is a part of the stratosphere layer of the Earth's atmosphere that absorbs UV rays from the sun.The researchers used data from the Canadian Space Agency's Atmospheric Chemistry Experiment (ACE) satellite to measure the effects of smoke particles in the stratosphere. The results appear in the journal Science."The Australian fires injected acidic smoke particles into the stratosphere, disrupting the chlorine, hydrogen and nitrogen chemistry that regulate ozone," said Peter Bernath, research professor in Waterloo's Department of Chemistry and lead author of this study. "This is the first large measurement of the smoke, which shows it converting these ozone-regulating compounds into more reactive compounds that destroy ozone."Similar to the holes over polar regions, this damage is a temporary effect, and the ozone levels returned to pre-wildfire levels once the smoke disappeared from the stratosphere. But an increase in the prevalence of wildfires would mean the destruction happens more often."The ACE satellite is a unique mission with over 18 continuous years of data on atmospheric composition. ACE measures a large collection of molecules to give a better, more complete picture of what is happening in our atmosphere," Bernath said. "Models can't reproduce atmospheric smoke chemistry yet, so our measurements provide a unique look at chemistry not seen before."The ACE satellite operations are based at the University of Waterloo, and Bernath is the lead mission scientist. The article, "Wildfire smoke destroys stratospheric ozone" appears in the March 18 issue of Science.
Strong El Niño events could increase near-surface ozone in China - With the implementation of a series of air pollution reduction policies, aerosol pollution in China has been effectively controlled. However, in recent years, ozone (O3) is gradually becoming the most critical air pollutant in China. High O3 concentrations damage ecosystems, reduce crop yields, and harm human health. Therefore, it is great significance to reveal the factors that influence the variation in O3 concentrations in China and understand the reasons behind it. El Niño–Southern Oscillation is the strongest signal of interannual variation in the ocean, and has significant impacts on global weather conditions and atmospheric circulation. Previous studies have focused on the influence of El Niño on aerosol concentrations in China. However, the effect on summertime near-surface O3 in China has been insufficiently investigated.To understand the influences of El Niño on O3concentrations in China, Prof. Yang Yang's team from Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology researched the impact of strong El Niño events (1997/98 and 2015/16) on summertime near-surface O3 concentrations in China by applying the GEOS-Chem model. Their paper has recently been published in Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters.The study reveals that O3 concentrations over southern China increased during the two El Niño events, which was related to the accumulation caused by the weakening prevailing monsoon winds. Meanwhile, O3 increased in northeastern China during the summer of the developing phase of the 1997/98 El Niño, mainly due to the increased chemical production related to the increases in temperature and decreases in relative humidity. However, this anomaly did not occur in the 2015/16 event, which could be related to the different sea surface temperature anomaly patterns of the two strong El Niño events. Furthermore, O3 concentrations decreased during the summer of the decaying phase of the EI Niño events, which may be due to the change in the sea surface temperature condition to La Niña."This work reveals that strong El Niño events play an important role in regulating near-surface ozone concentrations in China, which can provide important data to support future air pollution predictions and control measures," says Prof. Yang, the corresponding author of the study.
5G Expansion Could Send Weather Forecasting Back to the 1970s - When you hear wireless internet providers talk about “expanding the 5G cellular Network,” your first thought is probably, “Oh good.” That’s because there’s a lot of wireless data streaming to the world’s many smartphones, tablets, and laptops. But scientists are increasingly worried that all that mobile device bandwidth will come at a cost—our ability to forecast the weather quickly and accurately.While most people know that they’re paying their wireless provider to connect them to the internet, they may not realize that wireless providers are tapping into a finite resource: a narrow band of radio frequencies known as spectrum (not the cable company). Spectrum-range radio wavelengths are unique for a few reasons. For one thing, they can transmit data through solid objects—such as the walls of your house or windows of your car—making them ideal for wireless communication. But they are also important because the Earth’s atmosphere naturally emits radio waves, which can be picked up by satellite sensors and translated into weather data like temperature and precipitation. The problem is, the radio wave frequency used by wireless cellular networks is similar to the ones used to monitor atmospheric conditions; the 24 GHz band is increasingly being used for telecommunications—notably for 5G cellular networks. The nearby 23.8 GHz band is reserved for scientific purposes, including weather satellites. As these two spectrum bands come under greater use, they can interfere, making the dissemination of weather and climate information slower and less accurate.Wireless data bandwidth can be a bit like a highway in a growing city. Unless more highway lanes are added as the population grows, traffic will get worse. As more and more people receive wireless service, the signal can slow if companies don’t look to expand bandwidth for mobile devices. As a result, many companies are asking the FCC to auction off additional spectrum bands for wireless communications. But atmospheric scientists say auctioning off additional spectrum bands could reduce their ability to give communities a heads-up about extreme weather events like hurricanes and tropical storms—events in which time is of the essence in order to save lives.“This would degrade the forecast skill by up to 30 percent,” said Neil Jacobs, former acting administrator of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), in a 2019 federal hearing about interference between cellular and scientific spectrum bands. “This would result in the reduction of hurricane track forecast lead time by roughly two to three days.”
Major M7.3 earthquake hits near the coast of Fukushima Prefecture - tsunami advisories in effect, Japan -- A major earthquake registered by the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) as M7.4 hit near the coast of Fukushima Prefecture at 14:36 UTC (23:36 JTC) on March 16, 2022. The agency is reporting a depth of 60 km (37 miles). USGS is reporting M7.3 at a depth of 33 km (20 miles),EMSC M7.2 at a depth of 80 km (49 miles). The quake was preceded by M6.4 at 14:34 UTC at a depth of 56 km (35 miles). The epicenter was located about 66 km (41 miles) ENE of Namie (population 21 866), Fukushima and 96 km (59 miles) SE of Sendai (population 1 063 103), Miyagi, Japan. There are about 1.8 million people living within 100 km (62 miles). JMA has issued a Tsunami Advisory for the Fukushima and Miyagi prefectures, with waves up to 1 m (3.3 feet) expected. A Tsunami Forecast is in effect for most of Japan's eastern coastal areas. 2 046 000 people are estimated to have felt very strong shaking, 3 200 000 strong and 7 379 000 moderate. The USGS issued a Green alert for shaking-related fatalities. There is a low likelihood of casualties. A Yellow alert was issued for economic losses. Some damage is possible and the impact should be relatively localized. Estimated economic losses are less than 1% of GDP of Japan. Past events with this alert level have required a local or regional level response. Overall, the population in this region resides in structures that are resistant to earthquake shaking, though vulnerable structures exist. The predominant vulnerable building types are heavy wood frame and reinforced/confined masonry construction. Recent earthquakes in this area have caused secondary hazards such as tsunamis, landslides and fires that might have contributed to losses.
Explosive eruption at Bezymianny volcano, Kamchatka, Russia (videos) Volcanic activity at Bezymianny volcano increased on March 14, 2022, with new viscous lava flowing out of the dome. This activity was accompanied by small pyroclastic flows, rising dense ash plumes up to 4.5 km (14 750 feet) a.s.l.According to the Tokyo VAAC and KVERT, a small ash cloud formed at 15:10 UTC on March 14, after which KVERT warned that an explosive volcanic eruption is possible with the ash up to 15 km (49 000 feet) above sea level, pyroclastic flows and the spread of an ash cloud hundreds of kilometers from the volcano during next several days.1A gas-steam plume with some amount of ash extended about 90 km (55 miles) to the W of the volcano at 22:00 UTC. By 04:20 UTC on March 15, the cloud was extending about 120 km (75 miles) W of the volcano.Beymianny volcano eruption on March 15, 2022. Credit: Copernicus EU/Sentinel-2, Pierre Markuse An explosive eruption of the volcano continues, KVERT said early morning March 15, and warned that ash explosions up to 10 - 15 km (32 800 - 49 200 feet) a.s.l. could occur during next several days.2Ongoing activity could affect international and low-flying aircraft, it added.
Asteroid 2022 ES3 to fly past Earth at 0.8 LD - A newly-discovered asteroid designated 2022 ES3 will fly past Earth at a distance of 0.87 LD / 0.00223 AU (333 600 km / 207 290 miles) at 19:18 UTC on March 13, 2022. This is the 35th known asteroid to fly past Earth within 1 lunar distance since the start of the year. 2022 ES3 belongs to the Apollo group of asteroids and has an estimated diameter between 9.6 and 22 m (31.5 - 72.2 feet). It was first observed at Kitt Peak-Bok, Arizona on March 7, 6 days before its close approach.
Asteroid 2022 EB5 impacts Earth - the 5th predicted Earth impact on record - A small Apollo-class asteroid designated 2022 EB5 impacted Earth's atmosphere and disintegrated southwest of Jan Mayen island in the Arctic Ocean at around 21:22 UTC on March 11, 2022. The object was discovered at GINOP-KHK observatory by Hungarian astronomer Krisztián Sárneczky at 19:24 UTC, roughly two hours before it impacted Earth.1 This made it only the 5thtime an asteroid was discovered before it hit Earth. talian astronomer Enrico Pettarin photographed the asteroid at 20:28 UTC."This is the second time I've seen an asteroid before it hits Earth - so surveillance works," Pettarin said."In the animation, the asteroid is trailed to emphasize its movement (5s exposure, 0.61-m f/4.5 reflector), from 20:40:28 UTC to 20:42:50 UTC, 38 000 km [23 600 miles] from the Earth's center.""An alert was sent to observers roughly one hour after the discovery, encouraging European observers to monitor the small object before it would enter our planet's atmosphere," Karl Antier of the International Meteor Organization (IMO) said.2"Additional data allowed a more accurate impact position south of Jan Mayen island and time predictions around 21:23 UTC."Near the predicted impact time, some observers from Northern Iceland, close to Akureyri, reported having observed a bright flash above the horizon, Antier said.The explosion was detected by Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty Organization infrasound stations in Greenland and Norway. Combining data from the two locations, University of Western Ontario astronomer Peter Brown estimated that the asteroid exploded with an energy close to 2 kilotons of TNT."Assuming a speed of 15 km/s, it must have been about 3 m (9.8 feet) in diameter," Brown said.3 The other 4 asteroids detected before impacting Earth were small space rocks that did no damage when they broke up in our planet's atmosphere.
Russia Threatens to Abandon Astronaut and Crash ISS into US - RUSSIA has put NASA on red alert after threatening to abandon an American astronaut stuck on the International Space Sation (ISS) and warned it could crash the station into the US in response to harsh sanctions. Head of the Russian Space Agency, Dmitry Rogozin, sent a terrifying warning that Russia may abandon Mark Vande Hei, the US astronaut aboard the ISS. Mr Vande Hei was set to return to Earth aboard a Russian spacecraft in three weeks' time. Mr Rogozin posted a threatening video on social media casting doubt over the astronaut's safety. He also warned that without the help from Russia to move the ISS away from space junk, the station would crash into the US. Former US astronaut Scott Kelly has reacted furiously to the threat. He told ABC News: "I never thought I would hear anything so outrageous." But Mr Kelly was not convinced about Russia's threat to the safety of Americans. "We do have the ability to control the orbit of the space station independent of the Russian space agency, so I don't really see that happening." The ISS is currently split into two sections. There is the Russian Orbital Segment controlled by Russia, and the United States Orbital Segment operated by the U.S.
Russia's war in Ukraine sends tremors into the Arctic - Diplomatic tensions over Russia’s invasion of Ukraine are affecting the farthest reaches of the Northern Hemisphere. Seven of the Arctic Council’s eight members — all except Russia, which currently holds the council’s rotating chairmanship — have agreed to boycott future meetings. The boycott, announced earlier this month by the U.S., Canada, Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway and Sweden, indefinitely pauses council proceedings on issues from climate change to Arctic oil drilling. “We remain convinced of the enduring value of the Arctic Council for circumpolar cooperation and reiterate our support for this institution and its work,” the seven nations said in a joint statement released March 3. “We hold a responsibility to the people of the Arctic, including the indigenous peoples, who contribute to and benefit from the important work undertaken in the Council.” Established in 1996, the Arctic Council facilitates cooperation and collaboration on issues affecting the far North, including fisheries and resource management, conservation, pollution, and climate change. In addition to the eight member states, it also includes six permanent participants representing Arctic Indigenous communities. Over the years, the council has negotiated legally binding agreements on search and rescue efforts, oil pollution responses, and scientific research activities in the Arctic. It’s also introduced frameworks for marine conservation and sustainable development, and it’s compiled reports on biodiversity, pollution and climate change. The boycott casts uncertainty on the future of ongoing council projects. Many of them involve environmental issues or concerns related to climate change — a pressing issue for the rapidly warming Arctic, where temperatures are rising nearly three times faster than the global average.
U.S. spending for global climate response 'pitifully too low' - Ahead of global climate talks last year, President Biden said the United States would dramatically increase its international investments in combating climate change.But the money Congress approved last week as part of its $1.5 trillion spending package falls far short of Biden’s vision. The setback will make it even harder for his administration to meet its pledge to boost climate finance and maintain its credibility as a climate leader in the eyes of the world, activists say. “They’re pitifully too low. There is no way to spin it,” said Jake Schmidt, head of international programs at the Natural Resources Defense Council.The final spending bill carves out roughly $1 billion for international climate finance — well below the $2.5 billion the president originally had requested, and even less than the House and Senate had recommended. An additional $500 million would go to biodiversity and wildlife trafficking programs.Earlier finance requests had sent a positive signal ahead of U.N. climate negotiations in November that the United States was ready to deliver on a promise to quadruple climate spending from the last years of the Obama administration to $11.4 billion by 2024.Instead, the final bill would increase fiscal 2022 spending by just $387 million over the last year of the Trump presidency. “Congressional leaders just didn’t prioritize climate, despite a lot of rhetoric,” said Joe Thwaites, who works on international climate finance at the World Resources Institute. “They got people’s hopes up by putting such ambitious numbers forward and then traded it off.” The full $1.5 trillion spending package would increase funding for domestic energy and environment programs, including boosts to EPA and the Energy and Interior departments. It also carves out funding for assistance to Ukraine. But the increases are below what Democrats had proposed and could limit some energy and environment efforts with climate legislation stalled indefinitely in the Senate (E&E Daily, March 11). At a global level, U.S. investment in international development and climate has served as an important tool for Washington to maintain its relevance and influence in the world, Thwaites said. But its funding commitments have fallen behind what other wealthy countries are putting forward.The money the United States allocates for global climate spending goes to cover funds for climate adaptation and clean technology in less developed countries. It’s also a critical part of ensuring that the United States contributes to an overdue commitment it made with other rich countries to provide developing nations with $100 billion a year in climate finance starting in 2020. Officials are now aiming to meet that amount by 2023 at the latest.
'Betrayal': US approves just $1bn climate finance for developing countries in 2022 -- The US Congress has approved a mere $1 billion in international climate finance for 2022 – falling far short of Joe Biden’s pledge to provide $11.4bn a year by 2024. The budget is only $387 million more than Trump-era spending, according tocalculations by Joe Thwaites, researcher on global climate finance at the World Resources Institute.If the US continued to scale up at that rate, it would take until 2050 to get to $11.4bn, Thwaites estimates, describing the bill as “extremely disappointing for climate finance”.President Biden promised to restore US credibility on climate action and international cooperation. Providing finance for developing countries to grow sustainably and cope with climate impacts is seen as a critical pillar of that cooperation.Analysis by the Overseas Development Institute found the US should be providing $45-50 billion of international climate finance every year under a “fair share” calculation that includes the size of its economy and historical emissions. The $1bn voted by Congress is just 2% of its fair share. Biden’s pledges already “fell far short of what was needed to demonstrate US commitment to climate action,” Sarah Colenbrander director of climate at the Overseas Development Institute (ODI), told Climate Home News. “But the new spending bill suggests that Congress is not willing to meet even these inadequate promises.”
Biden attends in-person DNC fundraiser to tout climate agenda - President Biden attended an in-person fundraiser for the Democratic National Committee on Monday as part of his push for the party heading into the 2024 midterm elections. The president focused his remarks on his climate agenda to a group of 18 attendees sitting at two long tables at the Hotel Washington in Washington, D.C., where he thanked the group for its commitment to the environment. “I am optimistic, but there’s three things we can deal with at the same time: climate crisis, consumer cost and national security. They’re not at odds with one another,” he said. “That’s why we have to pass the provisions in my Build Back Better, Build Back America plan.” Biden talked about provisions of the proposed package, including climate tax credits and lower price tags on electric vehicles. Earlier Monday, dozens of House Democrats in a letter called on Biden to restart negotiations on the climate portions of Build Back Better after the package stalled last year when Sen Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) announced his opposition to it. The White House has since sought to push certain elements of the package, including its climate portions. Biden on Monday told the group he’s going to continue to take executive action on climate “where I can” and noted that a climate office was created in the White House under his administration.
DC is asleep at the wheel when it comes to climate - Late last year, Democrats did the hard work of negotiating the terms of a $555 billion climate package as part of the seemingly-now-defunct Build Back Better Act. While the terms of the larger package collapsed, there is still something near consensus on the climate investments, and yet we are nowhere closer to passing it than we were in December. While it can be easy to fixate on the twists and turns of Sen. Joe Manchin’s (D-W.Va.) support, this is not just about one senator. The Biden administration and every member of Congress—in both parties—has fallen down on the responsibility to prioritize, finalize, and pass desperately needed climate legislation. There seems to be no urgency among Democrats to take action to mitigate the worst of the climate crisis, even though the effects are getting more profound every year. While climate change is affecting countless lives and every sector of our economy, we in the outdoor recreation community have front-row seats to its effects on public lands and waters. The Forest Service is instituting regionwide closures of our national forests because of wildfire danger; extreme heatwaves are making it impossible to go outside; record-low levels of snowfall have decimated ski seasons; warming rivers are killing fish and transforming fishing. Climate change represents an existential threat to the outdoor industry, which contributes more to the GDP and employs more Americans than the oil and gas industry. The hard work is done. Congress spent months negotiating the terms of a climate funding package last fall that includes critical investments in wildfire mitigation, land protections, climate resilience, local conservation programs, and good jobs to address access and economic development through a Civilian Climate Corps. These priorities will make a difference in protecting local communities and will improve the resilience and accessibility of the outdoor places that Americans hold dear. But the lack of leadership from Congress and the administration is imperiling these critical investments.
GOP Rep. Jim Banks demands Biden administration probe whether Russia is backing US climate groups - Republican Rep. Jim Banks of Indiana is demanding the Biden administration investigate allegations that Russia had backed far-left environmental groups in a letter sent late last week. GOP lawmakers have been sounding the alarm on such claims since at least 2017, though they gained fresh urgency after Russian President Vladimir Putin invaded Ukraine in late February.The unprovoked and brutal attack threw the global energy supply chain into chaos, with the price of fuel reaching crippling record-highs in the US and Europe in recent days.The invasion also revamped the Biden administration's push toward clean energy as a more permanent and long term solution to depending on unsavory international actors for oil. Moscow's aim in allegedly funneling cash to green groups is to undcut US fossil fuel production while maintaining Russia's, whose economy depends more heavily on energy exports. The massive country is among the top oil and gas producers in the world.Banks' Friday letter, which is also signed by Reps. Bill Johnson of Ohio and Ted Budd of North Carolina, points to a 2015 Washington Free Beacon report that alleges a Bermuda-based shell company with ties to Russian oil interests transferred $23 million to California group Sea Change Foundation in 2010 and 2011, citing IRS tax documents.Sea Change also reportedly donated money to well-known organizations like the Sierra Club, the Natural Resource Defense Council (NRDC), the League of Conservation Voters (LCV), and the Center for American Progress during those years. 'Russia spent millions promoting anti-energy policies and politicians in the U.S.,' Banks told Fox News, who first published the letter. 'Now, thanks to Biden’s war on domestic energy, U.S. oil production has dropped 10%, pushing up prices and enriching and emboldening Putin before he invaded Ukraine. 'Unlike the Russia hoax, Putin’s malign influence on our energy sector is real and deserves further investigation.' Banks' letter also highlights a private 2014 speech given by former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton in which she says: 'We were even up against phony environmental groups, and I’m a big environmentalist, but these were funded by the Russians.'A similar effort is underway by a wider group of House Republicans, who directly sent letters to the Sierra Club, NRDC and LCV demanding they disclose whether their leaders are 'are aware of concerns that Sea Change may be a conduit for Russian funding.'
How oil companies rebranded deceptive climate ads as ‘free speech’ --In 24 October 2019, Maura Healey, the attorney general of Massachusetts, sued ExxonMobil for “deceptive advertising” and for “misleading Massachusetts investors about the risks to Exxon’s business posed by fossil fuel-driven climate change”. It was the culmination of an investigation Healey had launched in 2016 looking into how Exxon allegedly misled the public about climate, decades after its own scientists had briefed the company on the realities of the issue.This week, the Massachusetts supreme court is hearing arguments related to that case – but not about Exxon’s actions decades earlier. Instead, the oil company wants the courts to decide whether Healey violated its first amendment rights by bringing the suit in the first place.With all of its other legal options exhausted, Exxon’s efforts to stop this case hinge on the one last complaint: invoking Massachusetts’ anti-Slapp statute. Slapp stands for Strategic Lawsuits Against Public Participation, and statutes against such legal claims originated out of efforts to protect the press and civil society groups from corporations that wanted to silence critics. In recent years, however, it’s become increasingly common for corporations to invoke anti-Slapp laws instead to protect their first amendment rights. The anti-Slapp argument has become a go-to strategy in US climate litigation. In some two dozen climate liability cases, in which counties, cities and states are asking oil companies to pay their share of climate adaptation costs, the oil company defendants have argued that their public statements about climate change were not “deceptive” so much as persuasive. They describe their ads, op-eds and public appearances discouraging climate action as “petitioning” statements, turning them into political speech that is protected by the first amendment.
Iowa lawmakers seek to delay carbon pipelines' use of eminent domain - Iowa lawmakers are seeking to block carbon pipeline developers from using eminent domain to secure land for their projects until next year. House lawmakers introduced a bill Wednesday through an unusual maneuver — filing an amendment to an unrelated piece of legislation, replacing that proposal with language blocking any carbon pipelines from seeking or exercising eminent domain authority before March 1, 2023. Eminent domain powers would allow pipeline companies to condemn land needed to build their projects and to force unwilling landowners to sell easements at "fair market value." "Private property rights go both ways — for landowners that wish to do business with a pipeline and for those that don’t," said Rep. Bobby Kaufmann, R-Wilton. "Our language allows negotiations with landowners by the pipeline to go on without interference, but ensures a level playing field so that landowners know that eminent domain is not a threat while we at the Legislature are gone." Three companies are proposing building pipelines across Iowa that would trap carbon emissions from ethanol and fertilizer plants and store them underground. Only one company, Summit Carbon Solutions, has so far applied to the Iowa Utilities Board for permission to build a hazardous-liquid pipeline. Summit's request for a permit asks the board to grant it permission to use eminent domain. The bill is the latest attempt by legislators to ease residents' concerns about eminent domain, after previous tries sputtered out earlier this year. House Speaker Pat Grassley, R-New Hartford, said Wednesday he is supportive of the proposal because it would give some assurances to landowners that the Legislature is watching to make sure eminent domain isn't abused, while also not interrupting voluntary deals between landowners and pipeline companies. "I think we’ve been trying really hard to thread the needle," he said. Opponents of the pipelines are concerned that eminent domain could be used to force landowners to sell their property. Some have also said they're worried about potential degradation of farmland. Summit's $4.5 billion project is classified as a hazardous-liquid pipeline because carbon dioxide in high concentrations can cause illness and asphyxiations. Ted Junker, a Grundy County resident who operates land in Butler County that would be crossed by one of the pipelines, supports the bill because it would remove the threat of eminent domain as the pipeline companies seek easements from landowners. "They’re making billions of dollars off it, OK?" he said. "They need to negotiate for the right. And it’s private property and they’re a private company. It’s not a public utility or it’s not for public convenience. It’s for them to make a lot of money out of, and that’s why they shouldn’t get eminent domain to do it, and they shouldn’t use that threat."
Landowner concerns spreading over CO2 pipeline; North Dakota county opposes eminent domain - — Landowner skepticism has mounted in recent months towards a $4.5 billion Midwest pipeline aiming to permanently bury millions of tons of climate-warming carbon dioxide in North Dakota, with many buzzing about the proposal at a Bismarck event Wednesday, March 16, and one county staking its opposition to eminent domain earlier in the week. The 2,000 mile pipeline network, a proposal by the Iowa-based Summit Carbon Solutions, has drawn the endorsement of top North Dakota Republicans and recently secured a $250 million investment from one of the state’s leading oil companies . But as word about the project has spread and developers have sought land deals, landowner concerns have become more prevalent. Commissioners in Richland County, in the southeastern corner of North Dakota, unanimously passed a resolution on Tuesday stating their opposition to the use of eminent domain by Summit. The county would fall along a leg of the pipeline connecting the larger network to an ethanol plant in Minnesota. And Summit's proposal drove many conversations Wednesday at a Bismarck expo on "pore space," the subterranean cavities where companies could inject their carbon dioxide, hosted by the Northwest Landowners Association. The Summit pipeline, called the Midwest Carbon Express, aims to coalesce the carbon dioxide emissions from ethanol plants in five states and ship it to North Dakota, where Summit is evaluating land in the center of the state to permanently bury the climate-warming gas. If it works, the Midwest Carbon Express would be the world’s largest carbon capture system, pulling in 12 million tons of carbon dioxide per year. But Wednesday's event took place against a backdrop of increasingly vocal concern over the project among some landowners, both in North Dakota and other parts of the Midwest. Last month, a South Dakota county on the North Dakota border imposed a moratorium on new pipelines in response to the Summit project, South Dakota Public Broadcasting reported . In Iowa, where opposition has been the most pronounced, less than 2% of landowners have signed onto easements for the project, according to an analysis by Reuters .
Largest Federal Utility Chooses Gas, Undermining Biden’s Climate Goals - — The nation’s largest federally owned utility plans to invest more than $3.5 billion in new gas-burning electric plants, despite President Biden’s commitment to swiftly move away from fossil fuels and eliminate greenhouse gases from the power sector in a little more than a decade. The Tennessee Valley Authority, which provides electricity to nearly 10 million people across the Southeast, is replacing aging power plants that run on coal, the dirtiest fossil fuel. But critics say substituting gas for coal would lock in decades of additional carbon dioxide emissions that are heating the planet and could be avoided by generating more electricity from solar, wind or another renewable source. It marks the second time in recent months that a federal entity has clashed with Mr. Biden’s climate agenda. The United States Postal Service is replacing 165,000 aging mail trucks with mostly gasoline-powered vehicles, despite the desire of the White House and leading Democrats to convert the fleet to all-electric vehicles. It raises the question of whether President Franklin D. Roosevelt’s grand 20th-century experiment with electrification can adapt to a 21st-century climate crisis that requires a radical rethinking of energy production. Like the Postal Service, the Tennessee Valley Authority is an independent organization governed by a board of directors made up of presidential appointees. And in both cases, the board is dominated by members nominated by former President Donald J. Trump, who frequently mocked climate science and was an ally of the fossil fuel industry. In its deliberations about replacing coal-fired generators, the T.V.A. found that solar or other zero-emissions sources would be less dependable and more expensive than gas, said Catherine Butler, a spokeswoman for the T.V.A. Although the average cost of generating electricity from wind and solar sources is now lower than from fossil fuels in the U.S., the T.V.A. said that it would be more expensive to tap solar energy for its needs. “We have an obligation to serve, and ensure the lights come on,” she said. “So, when renewables aren’t available, natural gas will be available to ensure that reliable, resilient service is available to power our communities.” The T.V.A. plans to add about 5,000 megawatts of new gas capacity — enough to power nearly 3 million homes. It is currently the third largest provider of electricity in the United States.
Shell's board of directors sued for 'failing to properly prepare' for the energy transition - Shell's board is being sued for failing to prepare the multinational oil and gas company for the transition away from fossil fuels. Environmental law firm ClientEarth, a Shell shareholder, said Tuesday that it had notified Shell of its claim against the company's 13 executive and non-executive directors. It argues the board's failure to implement a climate strategy that truly aligns with the landmark Paris Agreement is a breach of their duties under English law. The case is thought to mark the first-ever attempt at holding a company's board of directors personally liable "for failing to properly prepare for the net zero transition." "Shell is seriously exposed to the physical and transitional risks of climate change, yet its climate plan is fundamentally flawed," Paul Benson, a ClientEarth lawyer, said in a statement. "The longer the Board delays, the more likely it is that the company will have to execute an abrupt 'handbrake turn' to retain commercial competitiveness and meet the challenges of inevitable regulatory developments," Benson said. The not-for-profit group, which has a strong track record of winning climate-related cases, says it has notified Shell and will await the firm's response before formally filing papers in the High Court of England and Wales for permission to bring the claim. If the legal case is ultimately successful, the court could force Shell's board to align its climate strategy with the goals of the 2015 Paris Agreement. It could also declare that Shell's board is in breach of its legal duties. If the claimants lose, however, they could be liable for the full costs of the case. In response to the legal action, Shell told CNBC via email that it was delivering on its global strategy that supported the Paris accord. This includes plans to transform its business "to provide more low-carbon energy for customers," the company added.
Texas and other states want to 'boycott' fossil fuel divestment : NPR -Ivan Frishberg says his job is just smart financial policy. He's chief sustainability officer at New York-based Amalgamated Bank, which focuses on socially responsible investment. That includes steering investments away from things like fossil fuels that contribute to global warming."Banks and asset managers are in many ways modeling capitalism," he says, "moving money away from things that we know are inherently risky, and to where the market wants it."About ten percent of all investments in the world are now in some kind of environmental or socially aligned fund. And big financial firms like BlackRock – under pressure from shareholders – have joined the trend, attracting investors and positive media coverage by touting environmentally responsible strategies. But last year, when BlackRock CEO Larry Fink wrote a letter advising companies to prepare for a zero carbon world, there were some places where the reaction was not so positive.Places like Texas."To see companies taking that position, I really felt like this was an anti-Texas narrative," says Jason Isaac.Isaac heads the Texas Public Policy Foundation, an influential think tank that opposes efforts to fight climate change and receives millions of dollars from fossil fuel interests.A few years ago, Isaac says he started hearing complaints about banks betting on the energy transition. "When you can't get access to capital, it's harmful to these industries."He says some people in oil and gas asked for his help.Isaac is a former state representative, so he wrote a model bill and passed it to lawmakers, a fact the watchdog group Documented brought to the attention of NPR.Essentially, the bill said the state of Texas cannot do business with financial groups that divest from fossil fuels. Issac says the goal is to get these banks and investment firms to change their policies. He calls it "a responsible way to push back that says, 'Look, if you're going to be anti-Texas, then you're not going to get to do business with Texas.'" The bill was signed into law last year. Now the Texas comptroller's office is creating a list of companies that could face a state boycott. On Wednesday, Comptroller Glenn Hegar sent a letter to 19 financial companies asking for a list of any mutual funds or exchange-traded funds in their portfolios that "prohibit or limit investment in fossil fuels." He said another round of letters will go out soon to 100 other companies, and any that fails to respond within 60 days "will be presumed to be boycotting energy companies."
Texas threatens to hit ESG firms over fossil fuel 'boycott' - Texas is wrestling with how to hit back against Wall Street’s green posture. The state’s top financial official is starting to inch toward action against some firms, after months of Texas Republicans bashing financial giants — especially BlackRock Inc. — for pledging to curb climate change through their investments. GOP leaders say those climate commitments amount to a “boycott” of fossil fuel companies. Last summer, Texas enacted a law to divest state funds like retirement accounts from green-minded financial firms. But implementing that law has proved tricky. Texas Comptroller Glenn Hegar yesterday sent letters to 19 financial companies asking them to “clarify their fossil fuel investment policies and procedures” and to list any of their mutual funds or exchange-traded funds that limit fossil fuel investments. Hegar gave the companies 60 days to respond — extending a process that had previously been expected to wrap up in March. BlackRock officials earlier this year met with Texas leaders and outlined the firm’s multibillion-dollar oil and gas investments (Climatewire, Feb. 24). But Republicans have been unswayed, pointing to BlackRock CEO Larry Fink’s continued outspokenness on cutting emissions. “Our research thus far shows that some companies are telling us and other energy-producing states one thing, and then turning around and telling their liberal clients in other states another thing,” Hegar said in a statement. “On one hand, they push net-zero and other environmental, social and governance (ESG) policies and use their influence and the dollars under their management to limit access to capital for Texas oil and gas firms,” he said. “Then these same firms tell Texas and other energy states that they’re committed to the fossil fuel sector. It is time for these companies to come clean, stop the big lie and realize they can’t have it both ways.” Hegar’s letters ask for basic information (“Is your company publicly traded?”) and more detailed questions about internal processes, such as how executives involve themselves in fossil fuel investment policies. Hegar said he plans to send similar letters to over 100 more companies soon.
A pro-fossil fuel Disney ride voiced by Ellen DeGeneres and Bill Nye? Yes, it existed - If you were lucky enough to be a small kid roaming Disney World’s Epcot Center until just a few years ago, you would have seen a ride nestled next to the monorail tracks that beckoned with gleaming mirror walls. An indoor ride, it was a welcome reprieve from the Florida sun. After buckling into your seat in what seemed like a theater auditorium, and the lights dimmed, a familiar figure would appear on the huge screen in front of you. “You’re probably surprised to see me here, aren’t you?” pealed a twinkly Ellen DeGeneres. The ride purported to tell the story of energy. It was awe-inspiring and warm-hearted in the Disney mold and also featured Jamie Lee Curtis, the late Jeopardy host Alex Trebek and science communicator Bill Nye. What went unsaid was the fact that, for a theme park, it had an unlikely corporate sponsor: the US oil giant Exxon. And the message directed at the often young minds of riders was brazen and, in the light of the climate emergency now unfolding, quite remarkable: fossil fuels are glorious and the climate crisis is not such a big deal. Yet somehow, even though it only shuttered in 2017, the ride has largely been lost to cultural history. But now, as Exxon and other oil firms face a wave of lawsuits seeking to hold them accountable for the climate crisis, grounded by charges that they sought to deceive the public about their role in it, the ride seems newly relevant as evidence of the kind of narrative big oil sought to promote. Exxon supported it although the company had known for decades how ruinous the climate crisis would be, but kept its findings secret. 1982, the year the ride opened, was the same year that Exxon’s own scientists predicted that a spike in carbon dioxide emissions would result in the warming of the planet. So buckle up for the story of Ellen’s Energy Adventure.
How U.S. crackdown on China's human rights record hits solar - The federal crackdown on China’s alleged forced labor abuses is spurring starkly different views of the dangers facing the U.S. solar industry, with one renewable group warning that almost 70 percent of utility projects are at risk while others say the challenges are manageable. The views were laid out this month by solar trade representatives, labor unions, watchdogs, photovoltaic panel producers and other policymakers in response to a request for information from the Department of Homeland Security’s Customs and Border Protection (CBP). The agency has been assessing how to enforce Congress’ ban on goods made in the region of Xinjiang — a center of China’s reported abuses and a production hub for the solar industry’s materials. In one letter to CBP made public on Friday, solar advocates at the American Clean Power Association said that “a full two-thirds” of utility-scale projects planned for this year were already at risk of delay or cancellation, due to CBP’s move last June to blacklist one major Xinjiang-based solar supplier. The blacklist was a forerunner to Congress’ December ban, which extended the import restrictions to any company that operates in Xinjiang, unless it can prove its shipments are not tied to forced labor. The association, a renewable trade group whose board includes some of the U.S.’s biggest solar developers, said the initial blacklist led to “sweeping detentions” of imports from major panel suppliers, which had used components from the single blacklisted company. The group complained of a slow and clumsy process for getting the panels released, arguing that it had resulted in a “huge economic cost.” Almost one-third of all utility-scale solar projects from last year were delayed or canceled due to the restrictions, it said. Solar’s biggest trade group, the Solar Energy Industries Association (SEIA), and the American Clean Power Association both asked customs officials to create a “trusted trader” certification that would brand some importers as “low risk.” But SEIA also sounded comparably sanguine about the risks to U.S. solar from the congressional ban. In a press call on Tuesday, SEIA’s President Abby Ross Hopper said that while the blacklist had caused obstacles, U.S. solar companies were beginning to learn how to demonstrate to customs officials that their supplies were free of forced labor. “We have been pleased with the collaborative conversations we continue to have with CBP, and I think most of the shipments that were detained have been released now,” said Hopper. Her group is continuing to press Congress for new and extended solar incentives, including tax credits for domestic manufacturers. Its chief concern is related to a petition for new import tariffs currently being studied by the Commerce Department, which will decide by March 25 whether to open a formal probe. The tariffs, requested by manufacturer Auxin Solar, would cover about 80 percent of all solar imports, said Hopper.
How a handful of metals could determine the future of electric cars : NPR -As automakers race to go electric, there's a big problem lurking underground. Companies are betting hundreds of billions of dollars on electric cars and trucks. To make them, they'll need a lot of batteries. And that means they need a lot of minerals, like lithium, cobalt and nickel, to be dug up out of the earth. These minerals aren't particularly rare, but production needs to scale up massively — at an unprecedented pace — to meet the auto industry's ambitions. And there's another big challenge: The existing supply chain is dominated by a single country: China. "China pretty much controls almost all the metals required," says Kwasi Ampofo, the head of metals and mining at the research company BloombergNEF. It's not just profits on the line. Climate experts say the world needs to phase out gasoline-powered vehicles quickly to limit the worst effects of climate change. The urgent need to access these minerals has industries and governments alike rethinking their entire approach to supply chains. It's not that China won the geological lottery and just happened to have really rich deposits of these minerals. In fact, the richest deposits are in places like the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Australia and Chile. But China set out intentionally to dominate the processing of these minerals, as part of a plan to become a major player in electric vehicles. Beijing had the authoritarian power, the money, the massive market and the will to make that happen. And it worked — much to the anxiety of the West. Meanwhile, the war in Ukraine has created a new kind of anxiety. Russia, while a much smaller player than China in these supply chains, provides a significant amount of nickel in global markets, which has sent prices of the mineral soaring since the invasion began.
As the US Rushes After the Minerals for the Energy Transition, a 150-Year-Old Law Allows Mining Companies Free Reign on Public Lands - -On the vast expanse of public lands across the West, a rush for the minerals needed for the 21st century technologies of the energy transition depends on a 150-year-old law. Those lands’ survival of the clean energy mineral rush may depend on rewriting it. A new open pit lithium mine was approved last year at Thacker Pass in Nevada, on publicly owned land managed by the federal Bureau of Land Management, to tap into this country’s largest known deposit of the mineral, worth nearly $4 billion. The lightest of the metals, lithium holds a charge very well and is essential for the batteries needed to store power from solar and wind energy sources and to drive the coming tsunami of electric vehicles as the world decarbonizes its economies. But as vital and valuable as lithium is, a Canadian company called Lithium Americas, whose largest shareholders are Chinese mining companies, is getting the mineral at Thacker Pass from the American taxpayer for free. And at the end of the mine’s life, critics say, it will leave behind a mound of waste, an open pit the size of a small canyon that cannot be fully reclaimed and polluted groundwater. The company argues it is making a billion dollar investment to produce a mineral critical to a clean energy future. “We’re answering President Biden’s call to secure America’s supply chains and tackle the climate crisis,” Tim Crowley, a Lithium Americas vice president, told the New York Times last year. But a coalition of Native Americans, environmentalists and a local rancher that is suing the government to stop the mine argue it will have a host of negative impacts on area water, species and sacred sites that were underestimated in a rushed environmental impact statement that failed to adequately consult area tribes. At the heart of that conflict, and others across the country, between a booming 21st century renewable energy economy and environmental protection of U.S. public lands is a 19th century mining law written to spur the settling of the American West.
‘Last Gasp for Coal’ Saw Illinois Plants Crank up Emission-Spewing Production Last Year - When Illinois lawmakers decided last year to ban most coal-burning power plants by 2030, it was because their harmful effects were well known.The emissions they spew into the air are a leading cause of death, illness and climate change.But while the new law looked ahead to the end of coal power, Illinois’ power grid was going through a sudden increase in its use of the fuel. Last year, Illinois’ coal-burning power plants burned more coal than the year before, stepping up production by 39 percent—the biggest percentage increase among the top 10 coal-burning states, according to federal data.Faced with the coming deadline that will require most of them to shut down, 10 of the state’s 13 coal-burning electric plants boosted production in 2021. Among them, in the Chicago area, is the coal-fired plant in Romeoville owned by NRG Energy. Slated to be closed even sooner—in June—after six decades in operation, it more than doubled production last year. Another plant owned by NRG, the Powerton coal plant near Peoria, more than tripled its output last year. The increase in the use of coal in Illinois to power the electric grid, which reversed a years-long decline, came as demand for electricity went up following pandemic-related lockdowns. Coal also benefited from high prices for another energy source, natural gas. The boost in coal-burning last year troubles some health and environmental advocates who have worked for years to force coal emissions to be reduced and succeeded in getting the phase-out of coal in the broader clean-energy law signed by Gov. J.B. Pritzker last year.
Coal Mining Emits More Super-Polluting Methane Than Venting and Flaring From Gas and Oil Wells, a New Study Finds - Methane emissions from coal mines worldwide exceed those from the global oil or gas sectors and are significantly higher than prior estimates by the Environmental Protection Agency and the International Energy Agency, a new Global Energy Monitor report concludes.“The numbers just aren’t adding up,” Ryan Driskell Tate, the report’s author, said of coal mine methane emission estimates when compared to those in prior reports. “It’s an area that has dodged a lot of scrutiny.”Coal mining emits 52 million metric tons of methane per year, more than is emitted from either the oil sector, which emits 39 million tons, or the gas industry, which emits 45 million tons, according to the report, published Tuesday. Methane, the primary component of natural gas, is a potent greenhouse gas and the second leading driver of climate change after carbon dioxide. On a unit-per-unit basis, methane is more than 80 times as powerful at warming the planet as carbon dioxide over its first 20 years in the atmosphere. The gas slowly accumulates in coal seams as organic matter is converted to coal, a process that can take millions of years. Methane emissions from coal mining worldwide are comparable to the vast carbon dioxide emissions from burning coal at over 1,100 coal-fired power plants in China over the near term, the report concludes. China, the world’s largest greenhouse gas emitter, derived more than 60 percent percent of its power in 2020 from burning coal, compared to about 19 percent in the United States. “We all know that the oil and gas industry emits a lot of methane and that coal plants in China are a major source of CO2 emissions,” said Driskell Tate, the energy monitor’s project manager for its Global Coal Mine Tracker. “The most surprising thing about this report is just realizing that coal mining has a comparable climate impact.
Ohio Sammis plants to close or be sold five years earlier than planned - Energy Harbor announced Monday it plans to deactivate or sell the remaining units of its W.H. Sammis coal power plant along the Ohio River in Jefferson County by June 2023, five years earlier than previously expected.In a release, the Akron-based company said the move is part of its plan to become 100% carbon-free energy generator by the end of next year. Energy Harbor also announced it would sell or close its other coal plant, Pleasants Power Station in West Virginia, by the same deadline.“Retiring the fossil-fueled plants is a difficult but necessary strategic business decision critical to the continued transformation of our company,” said David Hamilton, Energy Harbor’s executive vice president, chief operating officer and chief nuclear officer, in a statement. “I am grateful for the dedication and work ethic of our employees as well as the strong support shown by their union leaders and the communities where the plants are located.” Energy Harbor spokesman Jason Copsey declined comment Monday when asked why the company decided to make the announcement now and whether it intends to close or sell the Sammis plant.
'Hostage' Ukraine nuclear operators face new challenges - For the first time in the 66-year history of commercial nuclear power, operators must manage the exacting safety systems of a massive reactor plant under the guns of an occupying army that is killing their fellow citizens. The strain on the staffs of Ukraine’s offline Chernobyl nuclear facility and the operating Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant, both under Russian control, is a serious, growing issue, the head of the International Atomic Energy Agency in Vienna stressed yesterday. “I remain gravely concerned about the extremely difficult circumstances for the Ukrainian staff there,” IAEA Director General Rafael Mariano Grossi said in a statement. The IAEA is receiving status reports from Ukraine’s nuclear regulator, which continues to oversee three of Ukraine’s four operating nuclear plants. Two of the six reactors at the Zaporizhzhia plant were running yesterday under the direction of Russian operatives, including representatives of Rosatom State Nuclear Energy Corp., Russia’s state nuclear agency, according to reports from Ukrainian officials. The plant’s operators faced new challenges when the site lost access yesterday to a third high-voltage line connection to Ukraine’s power grid. The plant has four high-voltage line links and a backup line. Two of the connections were damaged earlier in the Russian assault. One line and a backup remain connected and plant safety is not threatened, the IAEA said. However the plant had to reduce power to adjust to line outages, IAEA said. If all outside power is lost, vital reactor cooling processes would depend on emergency diesel generators. In the Chernobyl case, 211 Ukrainian technicians and guards there were virtual prisoners inside the plant, working without relief “under enormous stress without the necessary rest,” IAEA said this week. The plant, wracked by a 1986 explosion, is now encased in a steel dome as workers dismantle it and safeguard its spent fuel. To assure the safety of the occupied plants, the “operating staff must be able to [fulfill] their safety and security duties and have the capacity to make decisions free of undue pressure,” Grossi said in a statement Tuesday. But a report this week in The Wall Street Journal based on text messages with Chernobyl’s Ukrainian staff and other accounts described a tense “hostage” situation that has deteriorated since Russian troops took over Feb. 24. The newspaper reported that workers, during brief calls, told family members of headaches, dizziness, nausea and extreme fatigue.
How Russia's invasion is affecting U.S. nuclear - Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is raising questions about the cost and flow of fuel to existing and yet-to-be commercialized advanced U.S. reactors touted by advocates as a tool for tackling climate change. President Biden didn’t target the nuclear sector when he issued an executive order this month to block imports of Russian crude and natural gas. But as the war drags on for a third week, the White House is consulting with the nuclear sector about the potential impact of imposing sanctions on Rosatom, Russia’s state-owned atomic energy company, according to Bloomberg, which cited anonymous sources familiar with the matter. Sanctions on Rosatom, sources told E&E News, could pose long-term challenges for the United States’ fleet of more than 90 reactors running on low-enriched uranium. While the existing plants have enough fuel for the next six to eight months and possibly longer, experts say sanctions on Russian imports could raise the global cost of low-enriched uranium and rile U.S. plants sensitive to cost swings. Russia supplies 20 percent of the low-enriched uranium needed to run American nuclear plants, according to the Nuclear Energy Institute. Others say the larger concern may sit with advanced reactor demonstrations expected to come online around 2028 that will require high-assay, low-enriched uranium, or HALEU. That’s because Russia is the only viable commercial supplier globally and other firms are years away from readily providing such fuel, they say. Russia is the sole provider of HALEU because of its existing enrichment infrastructure, capabilities and licenses. Ahn said it has become clear the U.S needs to invest in an alternative, preferably domestic sources of fuel for the new reactors. John Kotek, the Nuclear Energy Institute’s senior vice president of policy development and public affairs, told E&E News the group is actively trying to draw attention to the fact that there aren’t enough domestic enrichment capabilities to generate fuel for American plants. “The Russian invasion of Ukraine underscores the need for us to invest in our domestic fuel cycle,” said Kotek. “The ability to enrich uranium or do the conversion given the mining in the U.S. is not sufficient to meet U.S. needs.” At the same time, the nuclear sector is facing long-standing safety questions as Russian troops occupy reactors in Ukraine, triggering concerns about the safety of personnel and integrity of the reactors. Ukrainian officials over the weekend, for example, told the International Atomic Energy Agency that Russia planned to take full control of the Zaporizhzhia plant under Rosatom’s management, an assertion Russia later denied.
Nuclear expert speaks on the dangers of war between the US and Russia - Yesterday, we published an interview with scientist and anti-nuclear activist Steven Starr. Today we are republishing the second of these interviews, conducted with Greg Mello, who spoke on the underlying political and economic interests driving the world toward nuclear war. Mello is the secretary and executive director of the Los Alamos Study Group, an organization that has researched the dangers of nuclear war and advocated for disarmament since 1989.The threat of nuclear war is now more acute than at any time in history. The continuous eastward expansion of NATO following the dissolution of the Soviet Union in 1991 has culminated in the US-NATO provocation of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, which has already had immense global repercussions.Thousands of soldiers and civilians have been killed in Ukraine and nearly 3 million people have been displaced. The Western media and sections of the political establishment recklessly demand that NATO impose a “no-fly zone” over Ukraine, in which NATO aircraft would attempt to shoot down their Russian counterparts. This would immediately provoke a direct confrontation between the world’s two largest nuclear-armed powers, with incalculable consequences.Amid the war in Eastern Europe, the coronavirus pandemic continues unabated. According to estimates of excess deaths, between 18 and 20 million people have likely died directly or indirectly from COVID-19 during the past two years. A nuclear war would raise such a scale of death from the millions to the billions.The pandemic—which amounts to a social crime of staggering dimensions—has proven once again the willingness of the capitalist ruling elites to sacrifice the lives of millions of people, as took place in World War I and World War II. The same ruling elites are entirely capable of starting a nuclear war, which could quickly snuff out all human life and potentially all life on Earth.The fundamental conclusion that must be drawn from the present drive to World War III and the ongoing pandemic is that capitalism is a bankrupt social system which threatens the health and very existence of humanity. The international working class must overthrow world capitalism and build a new society upon socialist foundations, based on nuclear and military disarmament, social equality and scientific planning.
Limitless clean power? White House makes risky bet on fusion - President Biden wants the warmth of many suns to power American homes and businesses. The White House held a summit yesterday on fusion, which could someday become a major source of carbon-free energy. Fusion is made by pressing atoms together to create heavier ones. Nuclear fusion is the energy process that powers stars, with a low radiation and tremendous energy output. Critics have long claimed that fusion energy, scientifically possible but commercially challenging, is decades away from powering homes or businesses. But the Biden administration, and a growing cadre of risk-taking investors, see fusion as an important tool on the path to an economy with net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050. “We can lead the world with new energies and innovation and that is exactly what we are doing and why we are gathered here today,” White House climate adviser Gina McCarthy said. “We have to act on climate change so our country can win the 21st-century economy, and that’s what fusion helps to present us with — tremendous opportunities as well as challenges we know.” The Department of Energy will now coordinate all of its fusion energy research to advance the technology for “possible” deployment by the end of the decade, Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm said. The latest $1.5 trillion appropriations bill from Congress included $45 million for a new fusion program in which private companies will partner with DOE to build new fusion energy devices. It’s part of a record investment in fusion that will send more than $700 million to DOE’s Fusion Energy Sciences program. But Granholm tamped down expectations for when fusion will be deployed as a new carbon-free energy source. “We’ve got to manage expectations, as well. There’s a reason why fusion is hard. So it’s going to take time: Even as we are making amazing progress, we have to be careful about overpromising, and we have to be realistic,” she said. Still, the last year alone has seen a series of milestones in fusion energy research. A Chinese project achieved fusion reactions for 17 minutes at 126 million degrees Fahrenheit, which is five times hotter than the sun, according to the White House. DOE’s Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory achieved a “burning plasma” reaction, which demonstrated for the first time in any research facility a fusion reaction in which more energy was generated from the process than was required to initiate it (Energywire, Jan. 27). A European effort achieved a five-second, high-power pulse, which broke a 24-year-old record by doubling it. The White House event framed fusion energy as a complementary energy source to renewable sources on the energy grid of the future. “We need firm energy resources, ones that you can turn on when the wind doesn’t blow and the sun doesn’t shine,” said Steven Cowley, director of the Princeton Plasma Physics Library. The White House views its boost of the fusion initiative as part of Biden’s pledge to use climate policy as a jobs creator. There are more than 30 fusion companies worldwide, most of which were formed in the last decade, and about two-thirds of which are based in the United States, according to the White House.
Judge sets 2023 bribery trial date for ex-Ohio speaker (AP) — A federal judge on Friday set a January 2023 trial date for the former Ohio Houser speaker facing a 2 1/2-year-old racketeering conspiracy charge in an alleged $60 million bribery scheme. ex-GOP Speaker Larry Householder is accused of leading the scheme secretly funded by Akron-based FirstEnergy Corp. to win legislative approval of a $1 billion bailout of two Ohio nuclear plants. The plants were operated by a wholly-owned FirstEnergy subsidiary when the bailout bill was approved in 2019.Householder has pleaded not guilty and asked federal Judge Timothy Black to dismiss the July 2020 charge against him, saying prosecutors didn’t provide “essential facts” for an indictment and that the alleged bribes were in fact constitutionally protected campaign contributions. Prosecutors oppose the motion. Jury selection will begin Jan. 20 and the trial on Jan. 23, Black said in a court order.
Who paid the bribes? Judge demands answers in FirstEnergy shareholders’ suit - Ohio Capital Journal - About seven months ago, FirstEnergy, as a company, admitted to federal law enforcement to paying out two, multimillion dollar sets of bribes: one to the former speaker of the Ohio House and one to the state’s top utility regulator. U.S. District Judge John A. Adams — in a hearing Wednesday and a related order Friday — is demanding answers to questions about the utility’s role in a public corruption scandal that has festered unresolved for nearly two years. He asked for the specific executive who ordered the payouts. “Who is it that paid the bribes?” Adams asked Jeroen van Kwawegen, a lawyer for investors in a shareholders’ lawsuit related to the criminal case. Kwawegen said he couldn’t divulge the information, given it was obtained during the pre-trial exchange of evidence, known as discovery, which is typically confidential. “You are wasting my time. You are not here to answer my questions. You are here to duck and avoid,” Adams said before abruptly adjourning the hearing, according to the Cleveland Plain Dealer. The hearing centered on a proposed settlement for FirstEnergy’s shareholders calling on the company’s insurers to pay them $180 million for damages caused by the scandal. Adams said in the order Friday that he adjourned Wednesday’s hearing given the lawyers’ “steadfast refusal to answer even the most basic questions.” He said that settlement discussions are generally protected from disclosure. However, he cited cases in which courts found that information obtained prior to those settlement talks that may have come up are not protected. Thus, he ordered the parties to file arguments on this point, due March 16. If Adams determines there were no good grounds to claim secrecy, then they get another chance to answer his questions. If they still won’t answer, he threatened sanctions, including “removal” off their role as counsel for “failure to comply with the Court’s lawful order to disclose information,” Adams wrote. Jennifer Young, a FirstEnergy spokeswoman, said the settlement complements the “substantial enhancements and actions that the company and our Board have implemented to strengthen our governance and compliance programs.” She declined further comment.
Mysterious nonprofit with AEP ties has $3 million to unload, tax records show - Under shadow of a public corruption probe centered on the utility industry and its use of untraceable political spending, a nonprofit with close ties to American Electric Power disclosed harboring $3 million in the bank that it could unload as statewide elections loom.Open Road Path — a nonprofit run by a lawyer and lobbyist who both have long histories with AEP — has $3 million in its accounts, according to its most recent tax documents filed in November with the IRS and obtained Wednesday by the Ohio Capital Journal.All its funding leads back to another nonprofit, Empowering Ohio’s Economy, which was solely funded by AEP, according to contribution totals shared on an August 2020 earnings call by AEP’s CEO Nicholas Akins.The nature of Open Road Path is unclear. Its address listed in tax records is the address of the law firm of one of its board members. It has no website. It has yet to disclose any political spending. As a 501(c)(4) nonprofit, it’s not required to disclose the source of its funding. These kinds of entities, especially when they deploy funds for political and electoral purposes, are commonly known as “dark money.”Empowering Ohio’s Economy donated at least $900,000 to two nonprofits that supported House Bill 6, which bailed out coal-fired and nuclear power plants owned by Ohio utility companies. That includes $700,000 over three years to Generation Now, a nonprofit that has pleaded guilty to its role in the scandal. Former House Speaker Larry Householder was accused of secretly controlling Generation Now, which received about $60 million from Akron-based FirstEnergy Corp., and using the money for political gain, personal enrichment, and ensuring the passage of HB 6. Householder awaits trial, scheduled for January 2023.In another connection to HB 6, Eric Lycan, an attorney who served as the treasurer of Generation Now and other nonprofits that supported the bill, also prepared Empowering Ohio’s Economy’s tax returns in 2016.Akins disclosed that AEP provided $8.7 million to Empowering Ohio’s Economy after The Columbus Dispatch broke news, shortly after Householder’s arrest, of the AEP money flowing to Generation Now.AEP’s dark money spending comes atop the roughly $726,000 its two corporate PACs have contributed to state candidates in the past five years, according to campaign finance records.Neither AEP nor Empowering Ohio’s Economy have been named as defendants in criminal or civil cases related to HB 6. In June 2021, AEP announced it received a subpoena from the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission seeking various documents relating to the passage of HB 6. The SEC, when asked for an update Wednesday, declined comment. Open Road Path’s tax documents lists two board members: Tom Froehle and James B. Hadden. Froehle is an energy lobbyist who represented AEP before the General Assembly for at least 10 years. Hadden has represented AEP before the Ohio Supreme Court to defend against challenges to its “electric security plan,” a regulatory process that sets what costs utilities can pass on to their customers.
Utica Energy Alliance reaches membership milestone— The Utica Energy Alliance announced that over 100 businesses and individuals have joined its coalition to support the natural gas and oil industry.UEA membership includes a diverse group of landowners, community leaders, organizations, businesses and elected officials who understand now, not later, is the time to protect and support Ohio’s shale production and promote American energy independence. Since launching in November, the UEA has been on the forefront of energy policy advocacy and grassroots mobilization for the natural gas and oil industry.The UEA has built a diverse coalition of voices that span across industries and regions of Ohio, highlighting the fact our energy sector supports all aspects of our economy and communities.“It’s no surprise that the Utica Energy Alliance has grown so rapidly, speaking with a unified voice for the businesses and communities that rely on the essential energy produced in our state,”said Chris Ventura, Consumer Energy Alliance’s Midwest executive director.“With gas and diesel prices becoming increasingly burdensome to our families and businesses, Ohioans know that the best way to end this energy crisis and lower gas prices is to bring America’s abundant energy resources to the fight.”
The Ohio River Valley Hydrogen Hub: A Boondoggle in the Making – Senator Joe Manchin (D-WV) torpedoed the Build Back Better bill because, he said, it is too costly. But the fleet of hydrogen hub projects he is now promoting for locations around the nation, one of them in the Ohio River Valley, may cost nearly as much, they will drive up utility bills and create few new jobs, and they will miss a large share of the emissions they’re supposed to eliminate. They will also block less costly climate solutions that can create more jobs and actually eliminate climate-warming emissions the hydrogen hubs would only partially abate. According to the White House Council on Environmental Quality, the hydrogen hubs, which have as their centerpiece massive pipeline networks that would funnel carbon captured from power plants and factories to injection points for underground sequestration, would cost between $170 billion and $230 billion just to construct. That figure is dwarfed by the additional investment in carbon capture technology that would have to be made by plant owners whose costs to operate and maintain their retrofitted plants would also rise significantly. A recent Ohio River Valley Institute brief pointed out that retrofitting just the nation’s coal and gas-fired power plants for carbon capture and sequestration (CCS) would add approximately $100 billion per year to Americans’ electric bills, an increase of 25%. The cost of adding CCS to steel mills, cement plants, factories, and other carbon producing facilities could be that much or more. You can move the cost around and even hide it, but you can’t make it go away. The problem with CCS is that, because it’s an add-on process, it necessarily increases the cost of every product and service it touches. That includes the production of “blue hydrogen”— hydrogen derived from methane with partial emission reduction by means of CCS. No business wants to take on unnecessary costs, which is why, despite forty years of federal government funding for research and development, CCS and blue hydrogen are rarely found in commercial settings and, in the case of power generation, they are not found at all. Consequently, even if the federal government invests hundreds of billions of dollars to build the pipeline infrastructure required to transport and sequester captured carbon, the putative customers of that infrastructure—power plants and factories—would still have no incentive to install CCS. In fact, they would put themselves at a competitive disadvantage by doing so.
Report: Oil and gas waste treated at New Castle facility more radioactive when discharged -- Mahoning Matters -A team of investigative journalists have mapped out the 144 disposal or treatment sites in Pennsylvania taking radioactive waste from the oil and gas industry. They found the waste being discharged into state waters far exceeds health guidelines for one specific cancer-causing material, despite federal regulators’ downplaying of the health risks. In some cases — including at a treatment facility along Riverpark Drive in New Castle — the released waste is actually more radioactive than before it was treated, the data shows.“That story takes a really high-level overview and looks at the systemic impacts of this. … The public has never before been able to see with this much clarity on where this radiation is at the state level,” said investigative reporter Jake Conley, who authored the January report for Public Herald, a nonprofit, publicly supported investigative news agency that has been publishing deep dives into environmental health issues in Ohio and Pennsylvania.The group last year published an exposé on the oil and gas waste accepted at landfills in Ohio, likethe Republic Services Carbon Limestone Landfill in Lowellville — which contains “technologically enhanced naturally occurring radioactive material,” or “TENORM.” That includes radium, a radioactive and cancer-causing element that can take 1,600 years to break down. As more is dumped, it settles into waterways, they said. “Radium-226, in particular, is [what] we have heard people refer to as a ‘forever problem,’” Melissa Troutman, Public Herald editor, told Mahoning Matters. “One of the things the regulators have not acknowledged is that cumulative impact over time. If we’re going to be discharging that in the same discharge points for 30 years, what does that buildup look like?”Last summer, Public Herald sought public records from the Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection to identify the 144 public and private facilities for the first time ever, and show how much radium they’re discharging.The DEP in 2015 released a study on the radioactive material coming from state oil and gas operations — which the department said in a news release “shows there is little potential for radiation exposure from oil and gas development” — but never named the facilities where the material was treated.According to Public Herald’s map, at sites in or near Mercer and Lawrence counties, the radium content of effluent measured as low as 60 picocuries per liter (pCi/L) and as high as 11,282 pCi/L.The regulatory limit for radium in drinking water is 5 pCi/L. “Some of the numbers … are shockingly high,” Conley said. “That can serve as information for scientists, citizens. It holds the DEP accountable. … They’re allowing this to be propagated across the state.”
Up from the ground comes a bubbling gas: Feds giving PA $400M to plug dangerous orphan wells - (video) “Let’s be quiet for a few seconds,” said Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection oil and gas inspector Jonathan Shub, pointing to a large pipe jutting out of the ground amid some trees. Shub and a few visitors had just trudged up a muddy embankment, kicking up leaves and stepping over fallen limbs. Everyone stopped at a level spot, looking up at the backside of an older house in Ohio Township, a few miles north of Pittsburgh. As the group’s chattering faded, a feint gurgling sound could be heard coming from the pipe, a vent for an orphaned gas well far below the leaves and mud. The water filling the vent bubbled like the proverbial witches’ cauldron as the leaking gas below worked its way to the surface. This is just one of about 26,000 orphaned oil and gas wells in Pennsylvania documented by the DEP. Orphaned wells have no owner of record and are no longer producing for commercial or private use. Most of these orphaned wells are old, some dating back to the 1800s and early 1900s, making them susceptible to leaks because they were not plugged anywhere close to current standards. Consequently, the state is responsible for finding and plugging them. Between 1989 and 2021, the DEP has spent about $37 million to plug 3,000 wells, former DEP deputy secretary Scott Perry told the House Environmental Resources and Energy Committee on Feb. 7. But, now some much-needed help is coming from President Joe Biden’s bipartisan infrastructure law. Under the federal legislation, about $4.7 billion has been allocated to plug, remediate and reclaim oil and gas well sites across the country. Pennsylvania could receive up to $411 million over the next 10 years. Citing the U.S. Department of Interior, the Ohio River Valley Institute said in a report that there are more than 130,000 documented unplugged orphaned wells across the nation and, possibly, as many as 800,000 undocumented ones. In late January, Gov. Tom Wolf announced that the state had received $25 million of the $104 million it has been allotted in the first phase. Pennsylvania was among 26 states to apply for funding. Standing on that embankment in early March, Shub said the federal money would be a “game changer” in the effort to plug orphaned wells. Perry, though, put it in starker terms for those House committee members. With the DEP spending about $1 million a year to plug 12 wells annually, “it would take 2,242 years” to plug the 26,000 orphaned wells the department has documented. Some estimates, however, have put the number of orphaned oil and gas wells in the state at between 200,000 and 560,000. “We have thousands of wells that we know about,” Shub said, “and thousands we don’t know about.”
Appalachia on Pace to Lead Lower 48 Natural Gas Output Growth in April, Says EIA -- Led by incremental growth in the Appalachian Basin, major Lower 48 drilling regions are set to raise natural gas output by more than 500,000 MMcf/d in April, according to updated modeling from the Energy Information Administration (EIA). EIA Total natural gas production from seven key U.S. regions will grow by 594 MMcf/d month/month to reach an estimated 92.326 Bcf/d in April, EIA said Monday in the latest iteration of its monthly Drilling Productivity Report (DPR). At 186 MMcf/d, Appalachia is projected to post the largest gain for the period among the seven onshore drilling regions, a group that also includes the Anadarko and Permian basins, as well as the Bakken, Eagle Ford, Haynesville and Niobrara formations. The Haynesville (up 173 MMcf/d), Permian (up 120 MMcf/d) and Eagle Ford (up 94 MMcf/d) are also expected to post month/month increases in natural gas output in the latest DPR. Smaller gains are projected for the Bakken (up 22 MMcf/d) and Niobrara (up 3 MMcf/d). EIA modeled a 4 MMcf/d decline in Anadarko natural gas production from March to April. Oil production out of the seven regions will climb 117,000 b/d from March to April to reach slightly more than 8.7 million b/d, according to the latest DPR. Modeled increases are from the Permian (up 70,000 b/d), the Eagle Ford (up 23,000 b/d), the Bakken (up 16,000 b/d), the Anadarko (up 6,000 b/d) and Appalachia (up 2,000 b/d). Meanwhile, operators across the seven regions drew down their collective backlog of drilled but uncompleted (DUC) wells by 156 from January to February, leaving the combined tally at 4,372, the most up-to-date DPR data show. The Haynesville DUC total held flat month/month at 369, while the Permian (down 86), Eagle Ford (down 19), Niobrara (down 14), Appalachia (down 14), Bakken (down 13) and Anadarko (down 10) regions all saw their respective DUC counts fall from January to February, according to EIA. EIA’s DPR makes use of recent rig data along with drilling productivity estimates and estimated changes in production from existing wells to model changes in production from the seven regions.
West Virginia advances bill punishing banks for cutting oil ties - West Virginia’s legislature has approved a proposal that could restrict the state’s work with financial institutions that have limited their business with coal and oil companies. The measure, Senate Bill 262, is now under consideration by Republican Gov. Jim Justice, after clearing both chambers over the weekend. If enacted, the legislation would allow state Treasurer Riley Moore, also a Republican, to create a list of restricted financial institutions that “have been shown to refuse, terminate or limit commercial activity with coal, oil or natural gas companies without a reasonable business purpose,” his office said in a statement Monday.Moore, who proposed the bill, obtains banking contracts for the state and approves such agreements for state agencies. West Virginia’s approved depositories include dozens of banks, such as JPMorgan Chase and Wells Fargo.
Chickahominy Power cancels plans for natural gas plant in Charles City - A second natural gas plant planned for Charles City County has been canceled, with the developers citing “opposition from outside interests and regulations” that “made it impossible to deliver natural gas to the site.” Specifically, the developers blamed “the renewable energy industry and state legislators that supported them” for the cancellation. Chickahominy Power, LLC posted the announcement that it is terminating its plans to build a 1,600 megawatt natural gas plant southeast of Richmond on Thursday after six years of trying to bring the project to fruition. “We are relocating our development effort to West Virginia and/or Ohio where we have started the process of site selection and air permitting,” the statement reads. In February, an affiliated company known as Chickahominy Pipeline, LLC canceled plans to build a gas pipeline across five counties to carry gas from a Transco line to the planned power plant. That cancellation was spurred by a decision by the regional electric grid manager to terminate Chickahominy Power’s interconnection agreement because it said the company “has demonstrated no diligence or meaningful progress on the Chickahominy Project since entering the queue in October 2016.” Another natural gas plant known as C4GT that different developers planned to build in Charles City County just a mile from the Chickahominy Power site was canceled this July. Both plants would have operated as “merchant generators,” selling electricity into the grid as a business venture, and would not have been providing power directly to Virginia customers. Both also struggled to obtain sufficient financing over the course of their development. Natural gas infrastructure has become increasingly hard to develop in Virginia as the state transitions away from fossil fuels toward renewables. Under the 2020 Virginia Clean Economy Act, the power sector is required to decarbonize by 2050.
FERC failed to adequately review a gas pipeline project's effect on carbon emissions: appeals court Adding to the string of legal defeats for the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission's natural gas infrastructure reviews, a federal appeals court on Friday said the agency failed to adequately consider downstream greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions when it approved a natural gas pipeline project in Massachusetts.The U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit also said it was "troubled" that FERC didn't try to get information to estimate how the Tennessee Gas Pipeline project could increase upstream gas drilling. The court didn't weigh in on the merits of the upstream issue because it wasn't raised during FERC's consideration of the upgrade to Tennessee Gas' existing system.The decision came a day after FERC Chairman Richard Glick defended the agency's new policy for reviewing natural gas projects, including the GHG emissions related to them. Glick told the CERAWeek conference the agency's new review policy will help the commission's decisions survive legal scrutiny.FERC in mid-February adopted a new framework for reviewing natural gas infrastructure proposals that includes expanded criteria for deciding whether the facilities are needed and how they could affect people and the environment.The framework also includes an interim policy for reviewing a project's potential GHG emissions.The framework, especially the GHG review criteria, has come undersharp criticism from FERC commissioners James Danly and Mark Christie, some U.S. senators, and the natural gas industry.In part, the new review criteria are in response to a string of court rulings that found flaws in FERC's natural gas infrastructure reviews, Glick said on Thursday during the CERAWeek conference. Those cases include Sabal Trail, Birckhead, Vecinos and Spire Pipeline. Courts have recently found other federal agencies failed to adequately review projects such as the Mountain Valley Pipeline and Dakota Access oil pipeline."The courts send these projects back to the agencies and what that does is it takes years of additional litigation, years of additional review, and it adds hundreds of millions, sometimes billions of dollars of cost," Glick said. FERC is trying to provide a more legally durable approach through the new review framework, according to Glick.
Cash Prices, Natural Gas Futures Falter as Mild Weather Dominates Forecasts -- Natural gas prices stumbled on Monday as weather forecasts continued to show mild conditions through late March, likely pushing the domestic market comfortably beyond the peak heating season. The April Nymex gas futures contract shed 6.7 cents day/day and settled at $4.658. May lost 6.4 cents to $4.702. NGI’s Spot Gas National Avg. dropped 56.0 cents to $4.245 ahead of the anticipated warm-up. Forecast trends over the weekend were bearish, with models advertising comfortable temperatures for much of the Lower 48 starting Tuesday and continuing until late this month, according to NatGasWeather. Temperatures are projected to be “so exceptionally comfortable” between Thursday and March 23 that weak demand will likely “result in the first weekly storage build of the year,” the firm said. “And with a warmer-than-normal pattern favored to continue March 24-31, another build is likely” for the subsequent Energy Information Administration (EIA) storage report. That would mark a stark contrast to the last EIA print, covering the week ended March 4. The agency said utilities withdrew 124 Bcf natural gas from storage during the period. The decrease lowered inventories to 1,519 Bcf, leaving stocks well below the five-year average of 1,809 Bcf. Nationally, gas-weighted heating-degree days could “more than halve” between last week and the middle of this week and “remain lackluster into late March,” EBW Analytics Group senior analyst Eli Rubin said. “The current storage week may feature the last draw of the winter, with softening spot demand opening the door for further downward potential,” he added. The bear case noted, both Rubin and NatGasWeather said demand for exports of U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) is elevated and expected to remain so, given the global supply uncertainties imposed by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Over nearly three weeks of war, U.S. LNG feed gas volumes have hovered around 13 Bcf and near capacity. The steady calls for U.S. supplies of the super-chilled fuel come as both Western governments and major corporations distance themselves from Russia amid the conflict.
Warm Temperatures Drive April Natural Gas Futures Lower -- Natural gas futures dived lower for a second straight session on Tuesday amid warmer weather patterns and the potential for storage injections over the coming weeks. The April Nymex gas futures contract settled at $4.568/MMBtu, down 9.0 cents day/day. May fell 8.5 cents to $4.617. NGI’s Spot Gas National Avg. shed 17.0 cents to $4.075 on Tuesday after dropping 56.0 cents a day earlier. National Weather Service (NWS) data showed pleasant conditions – and modest heating needs – across much of the Plains, Midwest and East on Tuesday. High temperatures reached the 60s in the northern Plains and the 50s from Minneapolis to Detroit to Boston on Tuesday. Even warmer air was forecast to push East through the week ahead. Warmth spread across most of the rest of the Lower 48. Equally mild conditions were expected into late March, curbing the market’s demand expectations and weighing down natural gas prices. “We’re definitely seeing a reaction to expected weaker shoulder season demand,” StoneX Financial Inc.’s Tom Saal, senior vice president of energy, told NGI. While domestic weather is king in gas markets, other factors leaned in bulls’ favor. Most notably, the Russia-Ukraine war, nearing its three-week mark, continued to inject uncertainty in European gas markets and the potential for price spikes.
U.S. natgas up 4% on rising demand outlook, near-record LNG exports (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures gained about 4% to a one-week high on Wednesday with U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports near record highs and forecasts for slightly cooler weather and higher heating demand next week than previously expected. Overall, however, traders said temperatures were mostly expected to remain at above-normal levels through late March, which should allow utilities to start injecting gas into storage next week - about a week earlier than usual. With Russia's invasion of Ukraine continuing to stoke global energy supply concerns, European gas traded about eight times higher than U.S. futures, keeping demand for U.S. LNG exports at or near record highs. Russia is the world's second-biggest gas producer after the United States. U.S. gas futures remain shielded from global prices because the United States has all the fuel it needs for domestic use, and the country's ability to export more LNG is limited by capacity constraints. The United States is already producing LNG near full capacity. So, no matter how high global gas prices rise, it will not be able to produce much more of the supercooled fuel anytime soon. Before Russia's Feb. 24 Ukraine invasion, the United States worked with other countries to ensure gas supplies, mostly from LNG, would keep flowing to Europe. Russia usually provides around 30% to 40% of Europe's gas, which totaled about 18.0 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) in 2021. U.S. front-month gas futures rose 18.0 cents, or 3.9%, to settle at $4.748 per million British thermal units (mmBtu), the highest close since March 7. Data provider Refinitiv said average gas output in the U.S. Lower 48 states was on track to rise to 93.0 bcfd in March from 92.5 bcfd in February as more oil and gas wells return to service after freezing earlier in the year. That compares with a monthly record of 96.2 bcfd in December. With milder spring weather coming, Refinitiv projected average U.S. gas demand, including exports, would drop from 109.2 bcfd this week to 94.7 bcfd next week. The forecast for next week was a little higher than Refinitiv's outlook on Tuesday. The amount of gas flowing to U.S. LNG export plants rose to 12.71 bcfd so far in March from 12.43 bcfd in February and a record 12.44 bcfd in January. The United States has the capacity to turn about 12.7 bcfd of gas into LNG.
US natural gas storage declines more than forecast as Henry Hub futures surge - The Henry Hub summer strip rose above $5/MMBtu following US natural gas storage fields withdrawing greater volumes than the market expected. Not registered? Receive daily email alerts, subscriber notes & personalize your experience. Register Now Storage fields withdrew 79 Bcf for the week ended March 11, according to data released by the US Energy Information Administration March 17. Working gas inventories decreased to 1.440 Tcf. US storage volumes now stand 344 Bcf less than the year-ago level of 1.784 Tcf, and 304 Bcf less than the five-year average of 1.744 Tcf. The withdrawal outpaced the 70 Bcf draw expected by a survey of analysts by S&P Global Commodity Insights. Responses to the survey were wide, ranging from a 56 Bcf to 90 Bcf withdrawal. It outpaced the five-year average of 65 Bcf and dwarfed the 16 Bcf pull in the corresponding week last year. The EIA's East and Midwest storage regions led the above-average draw with both declining by 27 Bcf. The South Central region fell by 11 Bcf compared to the five-year average pull of 2 Bcf. The region is now 20% below the five-year average. The NYMEX Henry Hub April contract rose 19 cents to $4.94/MMBtu following the EIA's storage report release. The summer strip, April through October, rose 16 cents to $5.01/MMBtu. The 2022-23 winter strip, November through March, rose 15 cents to $5.12/MMBtu. A forecast by S&P Global calls for a 47 Bcf draw for the week ending March 18. This could be the final net draw of the heating season as a 27 Bcf injection is expected for the week ending March 25. Over the past five years, the final draw of the season typically takes place during this week. US production is forecast to grow by more than 1 Bcf/d during this week to 93.8 Bcf/d. Meanwhile, US demand is slated to decline by 9.5 Bcf/d to 76.2 Bcf/d while exports to Mexico and LNG terminals look to remain flat week over week. US dry gas production increased by 400 MMcf/d on the day to 93.9 Bcf/d March 17, with most of the growth coming from Texas, according to S&P Global. Canadian imports rose 100 MMcf/d to 4.3 Bcf/d, but LNG imports remained steady at 200 MMcf/d. Total supply came in at 98.4 Bcf/d, up 500 MMcf/d. On the demand side, power burn and industrial increased by 600 MMcf/d and 200 MMcf/d, respectively. Residential and commercial declined by 400 MMcf/d to 24.6 Bcf/d, with the losses largely attributed to the Midcon market. Exports to Mexico fell by 100 MMcf/d to 5.7 Bcf/d, but LNG exports grew by 300 MMcf/d to 13 Bcf/d. Total demand came in at 91.8 Bcf/d, up 600 MMcf/d on the day, but below the six-day average by 14.7 Bcf/d.
U.S. natgas up over 5% on cooler weather, big storage draw (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures rose over 5% to a near two-week high on Thursday on forecasts for cooler weather over the next two weeks and a slightly bigger than expected withdrawal from storage due to near-record U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said utilities pulled 79 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas from storage during the week ended March 11. That was more than the 73-bcf decrease analysts forecast in a Reuters poll and compares with a decline of 16 bcf in the same week last year and a five-year (2017-2021) average decline of 65 bcf. Last week's withdrawal cut stockpiles to 1.440 trillion cubic feet (tcf), or 17.4% below the five-year average of 1.744 tcf for this time of the year. Overall, however, traders noted temperatures were mostly expected to remain at above-normal levels through late March, which should allow utilities to start injecting gas into storage next week - about a week earlier than usual. U.S. front-month gas futures rose 24.2 cents, or 5.1%, to settle at $4.990 per million British thermal units, their highest close since March 4. Data provider Refinitiv said average gas output in the U.S. Lower 48 states was on track to rise to 93.1 bcfd in March from 92.5 bcfd in February as more oil and gas wells return to service after freezing earlier in the year. That compares with a monthly record of 96.2 bcfd in December. With milder spring weather coming, Refinitiv projected average U.S. gas demand, including exports, would drop from 109.6 bcfd this week to 96.0 bcfd next week. Those forecasts were higher than Refinitiv's outlook on Wednesday. The amount of gas flowing to U.S. LNG export plants rose to 12.73 bcfd so far in March from 12.43 bcfd in February and a record 12.44 bcfd in January. The United States has the capacity to turn about 12.7 bcfd of gas into LNG.
Weekly Natural Gas Prices Give Up More Ground as Winter Wanes - As temperatures climbed, weekly natural gas cash prices tumbled. NGI’s Weekly Spot Gas National Avg. for the March 14-18 period dropped 38.0 cents to $4.200. It marked the second straight week of declines, as traders fixated on spring weather and diminishing heating demand.When trading culminated Friday, El Paso San Juan was down 45.0 cents to $3.935, while Columbia Gas was off 38.0 cents to $3.880 and OGT was down 32.5 cents to $3.990.The April Nymex contract, meanwhile, see-sawed throughout the week amid global supply worries and forecasts that pointed to mild weather and modest demand through most of March.The prompt month settled at $4.863/MMBtu to close the trading week on Friday, down 12.7 cents day/day but up 3% from the prior week’s finish.National Weather Service data showed pleasant conditions across much of the Plains, Midwest and East during the week, with high temperatures climbing into the 60s in northern regions and the 70s across much of the rest of the Lower 48.Equally mild conditions were forecast for the week ahead.NatGasWeather called it “an exceptionally warm and bearish” outlook that was likely to usher in the lightest natural gas demand since prior to the onset of winter. “There will be slightly colder weather systems tracking across the northern and central U.S.” late in March, the firm said. This could provide “a minor bump in national demand, although far from strong.”
Williams Expands Haynesville Natural Gas Operations, Eyes Moving RSG for LNG Export --Tulsa-based Williams has clinched agreements with Quantum Energy Partners that include more than doubling its Haynesville Shale natural gas midstream footprint to 4 Bcf/d-plus from 1.8 Bcf/d.In one deal, Williams agreed to pay $950 million for Quantum’s Trace Midstream, which holds East Texas natural gas gathering and processing assets. A memorandum of understanding with Quantum also may lead to a joint venture for the proposed Louisiana Energy Gateway (LED) system. Trace customer and Quantum affiliate Rockcliff Energy also agreed to a long-term capacity commitment to support LED.“Williams continues to increase scale and connectivity in the best and most efficient natural gas basins, and these transactions with Trace, Rockcliff and Quantum represent an important extension of our natural gas-focused strategy,” said Williams CEO Alan Armstrong. “Importantly, this is going to be the flagship of our low-carbon wellhead to water venture, proving up what an important role natural gas can play in reducing emissions, lowering costs and providing secure reliable energy here and around the world.”The transactions could lead to Williams moving responsibly sourced gas (RSG) to markets that include liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports via the mainstay Transcontinental Gas Pipe Line, aka Transco. Quantum is an investor in Project Canary, which uses the Trustwell certification process to differentiate gas supply as RSG.Williams last year completed the takeover of Sequent Energy Management LP and Sequent Energy Canada Corp. from Atlanta utility Southern Company. Sequent was among North America’s largest natural gas marketers by sales volumes. The acquisition is expected to increase Williams’ gas pipeline marketing footprint to more than 8 Bcf/d.Williams over the past year also made some big moves to expand its natural gas gathering and transmission base, including in the Haynesville in a joint venture with private GeoSouthern Energy Corp. Williams recorded gathering volumes of 13.9 Bcf/d in 2021, up 5% from 2020. Contracted transmission capacity was 23.8 Bcf/d, up 3%.
Biden administration approves more LNG exports -The Biden administration said Tuesday that it would issue orders that expand the amount of liquified natural gas (LNG) that it exports as Europe seeks to reduce its reliance on Russian gas.The Energy Department said that two authorizations it issued would give two facilities the ability to export an additional 720 million cubic feet per day of natural gas. In the first half of last year, the U.S. exported an average of 9.6 billion cubic feet per day. The department said that its latest move would give every U.S. LNG export project the ability to export at full capacity. Russia supplied 40 percent of Europe’s natural gas last year. As the world has tried to isolate the Kremlin following its invasion of Ukraine, Europe’s dependence on the country for fuel has come into the spotlight. That has led to calls for the U.S. to expand exports of LNG. LNG is natural gas that has been cooled down to a liquid state so that it can be transported and stored. Climate advocates have raised concern about the fuel’s contribution to climate change. Reuters reported last week that a potential administration review of ways to increase LNG exports was shelved amid climate concerns.
API applauds DOE approval of two new LNG export permits - American Petroleum Institute (API) President and CEO Mike Sommers applauded the U.S. Department of Energy’s decision to approve two new liquified natural gas (LNG) export permits. “We applaud the Department of Energy for advancing two important U.S. LNG permits at this critical time in history. America is the best prepared nation to help Europe and our other allies meet rising energy demand amid international turmoil while furthering our shared goal for a lower carbon future. We will continue working with the department to ensure a timely and efficient permitting process to advance U.S. LNG export projects, which are key to supplying the affordable, reliable and cleaner energy the world needs now and in the future.”
How Refined FERC Policies Will Affect New LNG Terminals - The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) issued two new statements of policy February 17 regarding the certification of new pipelines and the assessment of greenhouse gas (GHG) impacts. Together, the two updates reflect a more meticulous regulatory environment and a stricter adherence to policies that midstreamers must comply with in an effort to avoid lengthy and expensive court challenges that have become more commonplace recently. The guidelines will affect most new projects within FERC jurisdiction and, among those, some of the biggest impacts will be felt in the U.S.’s rapidly expanding LNG sector — the terminals themselves and the pipelines that deliver feedgas to them. That could be cause for concern as Russia’s war on Ukraine has exacerbated an already precarious gas situation in Europe and a global LNG supply crunch. In today’s RBN blog, we explain the impact of FERC’s latest guidance on pipeline certification and GHG policy with regard to the LNG sector. In Part 1, we looked at the clarifications provided by FERC regarding the Updated Certificate Policy Statement (PL18-1) and Interim GHG Policy Statement (PL 21-3). We concluded that, overall, the Certificate Statement of Policy (SOP), which outlines the criteria that new FERC-regulated projects must meet for certification, would put a renewed emphasis on factors other than precedent agreements such as community impact, but really it just echoes what the FERC is already doing. So, while the Certificate SOP represents a recommitment to more stringent standards that new projects must meet, prudent project sponsors would have anticipated and planned for those hurdles. In other words, it shouldn’t be a big step change from the criteria already being applied. In contrast to the Certificate SOP, which has already been in effect for decades, the GHG SOP will eventually lead to a final policy statement after the commission receives comments. Depending on the language included in the GHG policy once finalized, it is likely to require an Environmental Impact Statement (EIS) for projects with a relatively low emissions threshold of 100,000 metric tons per year (MT/year). The preparation and approval of an EIS is much more time-intensive than the Environmental Assessment (EA) and could eventually end up being a bigger burden to new projects, especially if the final version of the guidance includes a requirement to assess the downstream impacts of Scope 3 emissions — those related to the ultimate consumption of natural gas and other hydrocarbons. As the guidance exists now for the two SOPs, the impact to most gas projects should be fairly minor, but that is true only because the environment at FERC and the U.S. Court of Appeals for the DC Circuit was already much tougher after a changing of the guard inside those organizations in the last couple of years. However, those tougher standards are already significantly lengthening the time it takes to move through the FERC approval process, adding even more uncertainty to midstream development. That’s a tough pill to swallow for the developers of smaller projects that may not have the economies of scale to address such rigorous standards. From a macro, long-term view, though, the biggest potential impact from the Certificate and GHG SOPs combined may be to the huge LNG export facilities aiming to send U.S. gas into the international market and the pipelines that feed the terminals. Importantly, the SOPs will impact some projects more than others.
Final state-level Line 5 tunnel decision expected as climate considered - Michigan regulators are expected to soon decide whether to allow a Canadian company to build its planned Line 5 tunnel through the bedrock beneath the Straits of Mackinac and at least part of the decision will be based on climate impacts. Friday, March 11, marked the last day for rebuttal briefs to be filed in the project’s pending permit review before the Michigan Public Service Commission (MPSC). Now the three-member panel will read all the presented evidence and decide whether to give Enbridge’s tunnel plan the final state-level green light.
Michigan's Whitmer Looks to Shut Down Major Fuel Pipeline as Region Suffers From High Gas Prices -At a time when American consumers are paying the highest average prices ever for gasoline, Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer persists in efforts to shut down one of the most important pipelines moving fossil fuels between Canada and the United States. Whitmer is seeking to shut down the Enbridge Line 5, which transports synthetic crude, natural gas liquids, sweet crude, and light sour crude between Wisconsin and the states of Michigan, Ohio, and Pennsylvania and the Canadian provinces of Ontario and Quebec.Whitmer has been at war with the pipeline for a couple of years now. In November of 2020, the governor revoked an easement for the pipeline in the Straits of Mackinac that has stood since 1953. According to the governor, Enbridge has repeatedly ignored structural problems on the pipeline, making it too hazardous to continue to move fossil fuels through her state.“Here in Michigan, the Great Lakes define our borders, but they also define who we are as people. Enbridge has routinely refused to take action to protect our Great Lakes and the millions of Americans who depend on them for clean drinking water and good jobs. They have repeatedly violated the terms of the 1953 easement by ignoring structural problems that put our Great Lakes and our families at risk,” Whitmer said in 2020.“Most importantly, Enbridge has imposed on the people of Michigan an unacceptable risk of a catastrophic oil spill in the Great Lakes that could devastate our economy and way of life. That’s why we’re taking action now, and why I will continue to hold accountable anyone who threatens our Great Lakes and fresh water.” Enbridge denies that the pipeline is in poor shape and has continued to use it despite Whitmer’s revocation of the easement. In addition, Line 5 moves more than half a million barrels of oil and natural gas liquids each day throughout Canada and the Great Lakes. A shutdown could be disastrous to gasoline prices, which are already through the roof.
Maryland firm to review environmental impact of Line 5 tunnel --— The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers has picked a Maryland firm to perform a multi-year environmental review of a proposed oil pipeline tunnel under the Straits of Mackinac. Potomac-Hudson Engineering Inc. will analyze plans by Enbridge to build a utility tunnel that would house a rebuilt section of its Line 5 pipeline — a significant and controversial fossil fuel infrastructure project that’s in the final stages of state-level permitting. Potomac-Hudson (PHE) will prepare an environmental impact statement (EIS) on the project, as ordered by Army Corps leaders last summer. The third-party contractor was announced Monday, March 14. According to its website, PHE performs regular contract work for the U.S. Department of Defense. It has created environmental impact statements on energy, coal gasification and carbon capture projects in multiple states. The EIS is a lengthy and comprehensive analysis under the National Environmental Protection Act (NEPA) that considers alternatives to a project as well as cumulative impacts and foreseeable development in the project area. Enbridge had applied for a more limited “environmental assessment.” The Army Corps Detroit District said in a Monday release that Enbridge would pay for the analysis, but the Corps is “responsible for the EIS scope and content to ensure an independent review.” The Army Corps said it will begin project scoping this year and the process would include public comment on potential impacts and alternatives. Overall, the Army Corps said it expects the process to last two years. Such environmental analyses typically last between two and six years, according to a federal review initiated under the Trump administration. Assuming Enbridge is able to secure all its state-level permits, a federal approval in two years would potentially allow the company to begin tunnel construction in 2024 — a project launch date disclosed last year in state documents posted online in response to a lawsuit. Enbridge received approval from the Mackinac Straits Corridor Authority in February to begin seeking tunnel construction bids from general contractors. The proposed tunnel is expected to take about four years to build, pushing completion into 2028 or beyond. Under terms of a 2018 agreement between Enbridge and former Republican Gov. Rick Snyder that paved way for the project, construction of the tunnel was expected to be finished in 2024.The tunnel would run through bedrock between Point LaBarbe and McGulpin Point. It would house a new 30-inch pipeline for light crude oil and liquid natural gas, replacing the existing dual submerged lines which have been operating since 1953.
Line 5 drilling method raises environmental concerns -Enbridge's plan to relocate a portion of its Line 5 pipeline in northern Wisconsin could involve a drilling method even the company admits will likely release toxic chemicals into surrounding waters. Horizontal Directional Drilling (HDD) is a common method for building pipelines under bodies of water, and it sometimes leads to "frac-outs," or drilling-fluid leaks. Bobbi Rongstad, who lives in northern Wisconsin, said she has serious concerns about the plans to use HDD on Line 5. For her, the issue literally hits close to home, as the oil pipeline would cross under two streams running through her property."I used to work in the utility industry, and it's a great thing for shoving a gas line under a sidewalk, not messing up somebody's front lawn," Rongstad explained. "But when they're doing 30-inch pipe and going 60 feet under the bottom of the river, which is what's proposed, things can go wrong." In an email to a Minnesota state senator about Enbridge's similar, Line 3 project, the company acknowledged frac-outs are "a generally known and common risk," but argued HDD is still the least environmentally-destructive method for laying new pipeline under bodies of water.While Rongstad generally agrees, she contended the line should not be placed in the areas around Lake Superior, where any leaks could have far-reaching impacts.In Minnesota, state officials report more than half of the 21 HDD crossings for Line 3 have been polluted with drilling fluid.Rongstad said Wisconsin does not have any significant HDD regulations, although the Department of Natural Resources (DNR) is accepting comments on its draft technical standards for the process. "If the DNR were able to put some more regulation on it, I would sure feel better," Rongstad stressed. "But they're not going to be able to do that midstream, you know? The application is in front of them, and they're going to get pressure from Enbridge."
DNR extends comment deadline on Enbridge Line 5 environmental review -- (videos) isconsin environmental regulators have again extended the deadline for comments on the review of Enbridge Energy’s proposed relocation of an oil pipeline through northern Wisconsin.The Department of Natural Resources said Wednesday that it is reviewing more than 10,000 written comments on its draft environmental impact statement on plans to bypass the Bad River Reservation with a new pipeline.Nearly 300 people attended a nearly 10-hour online hearing last month where most spoke against the project.Released in December, the review has drawn criticism from environmental groups, tribal governments and thousands of people who say it is incomplete and riddled with errors.The DNR says extending the comment period is reasonable given the project’s complexity and the amount of information and “hopes the extended comment period will provide the public with ample time” to comment on the more than 700-page document. Written comments on the environmental review can be submitted through April 15.
US-23 reopens after natural gas pipeline explosion; investigation into cause continues - —US-23 in northern Livingston County is open in both directions after closing during the morning of Wednesday, March 16, following a gas explosion.Michigan State Police officials said the highway was reopened as of 1:30 p.m. Wednesday. The road was closed due to a gas explosion just north of Center Road in northern Tyrone Township. Police said it appears a natural gas pipeline exploded, spreading debris.In a statement, RoNeisha Mullen, Senior Communications Consultant with Consumers Energy, said crews are on-site and called the incident “a leak in a natural gas transmission line.”“We are working with local public safety officials to continue ensuring the safety of the situation and shut off the flow of natural gas,” the statement says. “There have been no injuries, and service has not been affected thus far to any of our customers. We appreciate the community’s patience and encourage any customers who smell natural gas to contact us at 800-477-5050.” The cause of the leak and explosion has yet to be determined, Mullen told MLive-The Flint Journal in an email.
Marathon Petroleum Shuts Oil Pipeline After Leak in Illinois -- Marathon Pipe Line Inc. has shut down a pipeline in Illinois that leaked crude oil into a local canal, the company said on Saturday. The leak into the Cahokia diversion channel was first detected on Friday morning and booms were deployed to try and contain the oil, parent company Marathon Petroleum Corp. said in a statement. An estimated 165,000 gallons were released into the canal before containment, the Illinois Environmental Protection Agency told local news station KTVI. The leak happened near Edwardsville, a city of more than 26,000 people. There are no water intakes or private wells in the immediate vicinity, according to Marathon. The cause of the rupture is under investigation. “Resources deployed to the area for cleanup activities include boom, vacuum trucks, skimmers, and excavating equipment. Additional personnel and equipment are en route to the location to assist in cleanup activities,” it added.
EPA asks Illinois AG to ensure proper cleanup of oil spill (AP) — Federal officials want Illinois' attorney general to ensure that a pipeline operator conducts a proper cleanup after an estimated 165,000 gallons (624,592 liters) of crude oil spilled in southern Illinois. The oil leak started Friday morning in Edwardsville near Illinois 143 and entered Cahokia Creek, which runs parallel to the pipeline just north of the city. Marathon Pipe Line, which operates the pipeline, shut it down and sent equipment and workers to contain and clean up the oil, the Belleville News-Democrat reported. EPA officials have asked Illinois' attorney general to ensure that Marathon remediates the spill, assesses and repairs the pipeline, investigates the extent of the spill and its effect on groundwater, and submits and implements a corrective action plan. Marathon issued a statement on Friday saying it had made required regulatory notifications. The company said air monitoring has detected no hazardous level of emissions and said no water intakes or private wells are located “in the immediate vicinity” of the leak. Marathon said some wildlife have been affected and experts are on site to treat them, but it did not provide specific details about the amount of animals impacted by oil.
How much Marathon oil leaked in Edwardsville, Cahokia Creek? -- The Illinois Environmental Protection Agency has asked the Attorney General to enforce cleanup and other action by energy company Marathon Pipe Line after an estimated 165,000 gallons of crude oil leaked from its pipeline in Edwardsville, some of which flowed into a creek, according to the state agency. The oil leak started Friday morning in Edwardsville near Illinois 143 and Old Alton Edwardsville Road and entered Cahokia Creek, which is parallel to the pipeline. The cause of the leak was not immediately clear. Marathon wrote in a statement that an investigation will be conducted. The company stated that it shut down the pipeline when it detected the leak Friday morning and that cleanup efforts have been underway since. It added that no injuries have been reported, air monitoring has detected no hazardous level of emissions and no water intakes or private wells are located “in the immediate vicinity” of the leak.Some wildlife has been affected, and experts are on site to treat them, according to Marathon. The company did not provide specific details about the amount of animals impacted by oil. The city of Edwardsville announced at 11:45 a.m. Friday that its fire department and teams from the Madison County Emergency Management Agency, Madison County Hazmat, Phillips 66 Wood River Refinery and Marathon were all responding to the site of the oil leak. The National Transportation Safety Board, a federal agency that investigates “hazardous pipeline events” and other issues, also said it sent a team of investigators to Edwardsville. Residents reported a strong smell of gas, and the city said in an update Friday afternoon that the odor was a result of the leak. By 5:30 p.m. Friday, the Illinois Environmental Protection Agency provided the initial estimate that 3,000 barrels, or 165,000 gallons, of oil were released from the pipeline.
Marathon Oil spill still being cleaned up in Edwardsville — Crews from Marathon Oil, the Federal Environmental Protection Agency, Illinois Environmental Protection Agency and Edwardsville Fire Department and Hazmat crews are working together Monday morning to clean up an oil spill that happened Friday afternoon. Crews are also working to repair the leaking Marathon crude oil pipe that caused the spill. According to an update by the Edwardsville Response Team, as of 7 p.m. on Sunday, approximately 2,900 barrels of oil and water mixture have been recovered from the Cahokia diversion channel. But there's still work to be done. In a Friday evening statement to 5 on Your Side about the spill, the spill was estimated to have been about 165,000 gallons of released oil. Initial reports estimated the release at 3,000 barrels of oil. The spill happened near the intersection of Illinois State Route 143 and Illinois State Route 159 near Old Alton Edwardsville Road. The Marathon pipeline runs parallel to Cahokia Creek. Oil was spotted flowing out of the bank on the creek along the pipeline. More than 4,000 feet of boom barriers have been put out to contain the oil on the water. Fifty vacuum trucks and eight skimmers are being used to remove the oil from the water, and boats are now being deployed on the channel to help collect the oil. In viewer photos sent to 5 on Your Side, a thick layer of oil can be seen sitting on top of the water in the Cahokia Creek and coating the banks. Crews have shut down some roads and are working as quickly as possible to clean up the spilled oil. Wanda Road is blocked off from New Poag Road to Wagon Wheel Road. Old Alton Edwardsville Road is closed from Illinois State Route 143 to the west side of the Cahokia Canal. A strong smell of oil has been reported near the worksite. The Edwardsville Response Team said in a Sunday night update, “There have been reports of odors near areas affected by the release, and air monitoring resources continue to be deployed in the area as a precaution. Air monitoring has detected no hazardous level of emissions.” Response crews are worried about how the spill could hurt animals in the area. Veterinary staff is on site to treat any animals they come across. If you see an animal impacted by the oil, you’re advised to call for help.
Edwardsville pipeline fixed; crews still cleaning up oil spill — The Marathon Pipe Line leak has been repaired, and operations restored, as crews continue cleaning up last week’s oil spill. About 3,900 barrels of crude oil spilled in the Edwardsville area, including the nearby Cahokia Creek. The leak was reported on March 11. FOX 2’s Bommarito Automotive Group SkyFOX captured footage of crews fixing the pipeline. Authorities greenlighted Marathon to restart operations amid clean-up efforts. Marathon Petroleum Corporation, the parent company of MPL, said in a statement that there have been reports of odors in areas near the spill — but air monitoring has not detected a hazardous level of emissions. “I smelled this awful smell,” said Bunker Hill resident Paula Mansholt. “I just feel bad for the people that are living around here.” The Illinois Environmental Protection Agency is working with the state’s attorney general to oversee the cleanup. Mike Firsching, of Fort Russell Veterinary, owns a dozen acres of land that extends to the pipeline. Some of the oil spilled onto his land. “When you come back here, you would think you’re at a theme park. Everything is lit up bright. There’s noise and flashing lights and honking,” Firsching said. As a vet, he’s no stranger to helping sick animals. When an owl covered in oil appeared in his parking lot, his team sprang into action. “He was definitely distressed,” said Firsching. “He couldn’t fly. He couldn’t get off the ground, so I told my staff that we finished up on a surgery we were doing and said the owl is next.” Firsching and his team bathed the owl, whom they named Ollie, and turned him over to local wildlife rehab. Treehouse Wildlife Center has taken in and treated seven ducks, one frog, one hawk, two beavers, and three turtles. Unfortunately, several other animals died from the spill at the scene.
Oil pipeline leak in Illinois could show up in Cushing inventory levels (Reuters) – A pipeline leak in Illinois that began last week and has since been fixed could add some buoyancy to oil inventory figures at the Cushing, Oklahoma, storage hub, which saw nine straight weeks. decline has been observed.A leak on a pipeline in Edwardsville, Illinois, released about 3,900 barrels of crude last week before being repaired. Marathon Petroleum Corporation, The parent of Marathon Pipeline, the operator of the pipeline, said Tuesday that its crews were still extracting crude from the area. National Transportation Safety Board spokeswoman Jennifer Gabris told Reuters that treatment efforts were still underway. Although the release was near the shores of Cahokia Creek in Edwardsville, no crude oil made it downstream into the Mississippi River, the spokesman said.
Milwaukee oil spill evaluation ongoing - Wisconsin Examiner - The Department of Natural Resources (DNR) is continuing to evaluate the full impact of an oil spill that occurred in West Milwaukee last December. Originating from the Komatsu Mining Corp. facility nearby, the spill released approximately 400 gallons of oil. The oil leaked into storm drains and manifested as a sheen on the Menominee River in Milwaukee. DNR spokesperson Sarah Hoye told Wisconsin Examiner that a snowy owl and one Canadian goose were taken to a local Humane Society. “Both have made recoveries and were released,” said Hoye. Additional investigation into wildlife impact, particularly as winter weather gradually gives way to spring, are ongoing. Milwaukee Riverkeepers, a local environmental organization, also monitored the spill closely. One lingering question the group had was what kind of oil was released into the river. “Based on the information provided by Komatsu,” said Hoye, “the discharge was a mixture of lightweight, used oils including coolants, cutting fluid, hydraulic, lubricating, way, quench, gear grinding and cutting oils.” She added that Komatsu informed DNR that “the release occurred for approximately 90 minutes.” Komatsu expressed regret for the spill in a statement released in December. The same month, the company opened a new facility in Milwaukee’s Harbor District. Clean-up activities were performed from mid-January until the water froze over, explained Hoye. “The investigation and cleanup are still ongoing awaiting warmer weather to evaluate the effectiveness of the clean-up effort and the need for any subsequent follow up.” The DNR is also continuing to evaluate the circumstances of the release, which will shape what, if any, penalties will be levied against Komatsu.
Kansas oil companies scramble to increase production, but 'there is no spigot' - Skyrocketing gas prices have everyone from independent truck drivers to the U.S. energy secretary demanding that oil companies ramp up production. They’d like to and they’re trying to, but it’s just not that easy. To understand why oil prices are high today, you have to go back two years, to the early days of the pandemic. Oil prices hit the floor in April 2020. In fact, they fell right through the floor. For a while, oil producers had to pay companies to take oil off their hands. One day, the price in Kansas even hit a negative $47 a barrel. Some small oil companies went under. In Kansas alone, companies took almost 5,000 wells off-line and production plummeted. But between then and now, the price of oil has increased about $160 a barrel. “It’s probably the most dramatic price swing in the history of the oil business,” “And that’s not good for anybody.” With the ban on Russian oil imports, domestic crude is now selling for about $110 a barrel. That, of course, isn’t good for consumers, who’ve seen gasoline prices break records. The pain falls especially hard on lower-income workers, who often drive older cars miles to work each day and spend more of their paychecks filling their tanks. It’s sparked demands from fossil fuel users and politicians to get more domestic oil to consumers — as if oil companies can just turn the flow back on. “There is no spigot,” Thompson said. “Wells capable of producing crude oil and natural gas in this country are producing at close to maximum capacity.” But oil companies, especially smaller ones, are having a tough time expanding production. “They’re having trouble getting pipe. They’re having trouble with transportation. They’re having trouble finding crews,” said Dan Naatz, executive vice president of the Independent Petroleum Association of America. Oil companies have been trying to scale up for months now, and that’s made basic supplies of the trade, like piping, both scarce and expensive. And pandemic-related shipping problems have made just getting supplies from factories to the oil fields a major obstacle. On top of that, there’s a labor shortage. “Labor challenges are at the top of the list,” said Ed Cross, president of the Kansas Independent Oil and Gas Association. Small oil Kansas companies cut as much as a quarter of their employees in the lean days of 2020, Cross said. Those are skilled, technical, often physically demanding jobs, so staffing up again is another major hurdle.
Drilling permits spiked then plunged under Biden - Although the Biden administration last year approved more permits to drill oil and gas wells on public lands than the Trump administration in its first year, Interior Department data shows approvals have been more modest for months. In fact, the Bureau of Land Management in January approved just 95 permits for oil and natural gas wells across federal lands in the United States, an 85 percent drop from a zenith of 643 issued last April, according to a review of permitting data by E&E News. Many environmental groups have been frustrated with the rapid pace of approvals, which carved into the number of backlogged permits President Biden inherited by nearly 1,000 by year’s end, seeing it as a betrayal of Biden’s pledges to confront climate change. But the output from BLM offices in states like New Mexico and Wyoming has gradually declined, and overall permit approvals have dropped after particularly high outputs in the spring and early summer of last year, according to the data. Last month, permit approvals rallied from their January bottom to 186. But that was still the fourth lowest number of monthly approvals since Biden took office. Melissa Schwartz, a spokesperson for the Interior Department, which oversees BLM, defended the agency’s efficiency, arguing that the amount of time it takes to approve federal wells has fallen by half over the last decade. “The BLM continues to process applications for permit to drill in a timely manner,” she said in an email. Schwartz also noted that the oil and gas industry holds significant drilling rights already. Many of the drilling permits held by industry — and 60 percent of the acreage leased to oil producers — sits unused, she said.The Biden administration's policies about oil and gas development on public lands and the industry’s war chest of existing oil and gas leases have become key talking points as energy prices have climbed in recent months. Both have come into sharper focus in recent weeks, as Russia's invasion of Ukraine drove prices further up.
Biden, Democrats take aim at oil companies for high prices - After weeks of inconsistent messaging on rising energy costs, congressional Democrats and the White House are uniting behind a strategy of blaming oil companies for high prices at the pump. House Energy and Commerce Chair Frank Pallone (D-N.J.) announced yesterday that he’s asking executives from six oil companies to appear before his committee on April 6 with the intent of asking them why energy prices are rising. Similarly, Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) yesterday called for energy executives to testify in the Senate on charges of price gouging. The Senate hearing could find a home in the Commerce, Science and Transportation Committee. “I am deeply concerned that the oil industry has not taken all actions within its power to lower domestic gasoline prices and alleviate Americans’ pain at the pump,” Pallone wrote to the six oil companies. “Instead, the industry appears to be taking advantage of the crisis for its own benefit.” Pallone sent letters to Bernard Looney, chief executive officer of BP PLC; Michael Wirth, chair and CEO of Chevron Corp.; Rick Muncrief, president and CEO of Devon Energy Corp.; Darren Woods, CEO of Exxon Mobil Corp.; Scott Sheffield, CEO of Pioneer Natural Resources Co.; and Ben van Beurden, CEO of Shell PLC. It was not immediately clear if the executives would attend, though Pallone could force attendance with a subpoena. Pallone highlighted two claims made repeatedly by Democrats in recent days. One is that companies are using record profits to pay hefty dividends or to buy back stock from shareholders, and the other is that they are not doing enough to increase domestic production given the embargo on Russian oil and gas. Pallone also seemed to have his eye on curtailing some energy tax credits — an idea popular with Democrats. He noted energy companies are reaping profits via higher prices while using “generous production tax incentives provided by American taxpayers.”
Oil Companies Lament Rising Price Of Joe Manchin —In the wake of global turmoil and worsening inflation, oil companies were lamenting the rising price of Joe Manchin, sources confirmed Tuesday. “With the economy what it is and a split Senate, it seems like the price just keeps going up and up nearly every day,” said ExxonMobil CEO Darren Woods, who was just one of many industry executives left suffering from sticker shock after learning how much the West Virginia senator was now asking for. “It definitely hurts, but what other option do we have? I guess that’s what happens when too many people want access. Then again, maybe it’s on us for not diversifying our Senate power sources.” At press time, several reports indicated that a long line of oil executives waiting outside Manchin’s door had begun to wrap around the block.
Is Joe Manchin Lucy or the Football? - It’s pretty remarkable to see Big Oil via its current favorite front, Joe Manchin, push for “Frack baby, frack” when shale gas will not substitute for Russian oil. And worse, apparently no one in the climate change opposition has bothered to learn enough about oil production and refining to call this nonsense out. Yours truly is NOT on the energy beat. The fact that I’ve worked that “fracking will not solve our Russian oil problem” with only minimal contact with this topic, and supposed full-timers haven’t, is yet more proof of why the left sucks. It can’t get past emotionally-appealing sloganeering to understand how things actually work.The US needs heavier grades to mix in with very light (shale gas) or light (Saudi light sweet crude) to produce diesel and home heating oil. Russian oil is apparently moderately heavy and therefore a very productive source for diesel and home heating fuel. Absent heavier grades, we have a problem with diesel, already in short supply globally, and home heating fuel. Yes, they apparently can be produced from lighter grades, but those “lighter” grades have shorter carbon chain which means are lower energy density. So using light sweet crude to make diesel is inefficient and will put price pressure on gasoline.The US was willing to suddenly kiss and make up with Venezuela to get heavy crude for mixing purposes. Even though the Biden Administration had allegedly been thinking of “normalizing” relations with Caracas, it hadn’t done much of anything along those lines. So its plan to make nice in exchange for Venezuela’s oil ran into a firestorm of criticism and the Administration chickened out. And even if that initiative had succeeded, it would not have provided enough heavy sour crude to fully replace the lost Russian supply.And don’t fool yourself about Canadian tar sands. From reader Skeptic:“Syncrude” from tar sands oil is extremely light after pre-refining and, therefore, maybe not so helpful for diesel. Venezuelan oil is heavy and sour–also has high vanadium which will poison refinery catalysts. They are not good substitutes for each other…I think the Canadian syncrude is mostly expected to be exported from our Gulf Coast rather than refined in USA. That would be why one of the arguments against Keystone XL is that Canadians should build their own pipeline from Athabasca to a port in British Columbia and not put USA water at risk. Second, from Hill Heat, there’s this:Joe “Lucy” Manchin is pulling away the climate football from the Charlie Brown Democrats. After President Joe Biden and his top advisors called for a full mobilizationfor clean energy independence, Manchin got to work. On Thursday, he called for amassive increase in oil and gas drilling. On Friday, he got rapturous applause from oil and gas executives as he trashed federal backing for electric vehicles. Today, he announced his opposition to climate hawk Sarah Bloom Raskin’s nomination to the Federal Reserve. It’ll be fun to see what he kills next.I’m sincerely hoping that the advocates who are paid quite well to convince the U.S. Congress to enact strong climate policy now adjust their strategy away from “make a deal with Manchin,” because it ain’t gonna happen.
Can Lower 48 E&Ps Ramp Up Production? Not So Fast, Execs Say - It will take more than $100/bbl oil and an energy crisis in Europe for Lower 48 exploration and production (E&P) firms to substantially raise production, according to executives from three leading onshore producers who spoke at the CERAweek event in Houston. Pioneer Natural Resources Co. CEO Scott Sheffield told the CERAWeek by S&P Global conference earlier this month that U.S. sanctions on Russian oil and gas have temporarily impacted global supply. Still, he offered a caveat. “Nobody believes this problem is long-term.” Sheffield, who helms one of the largest oil and gas producers in the Permian Basin, cited steep backwardation in the long-term oil price curve as evidence that the market does not expect supply constraints to linger. Short-term, he said Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates are the only countries in position to replace a meaningful portion of the supply lost from Russia. “Longer term, it could be U.S. shale and Canada,” Sheffield said. Those North American countries, he noted, accounted for most global supply growth over the last decade. He also offered a dose of pessimism about current circumstances. “Most people on Wall Street still think our industry’s going to be gone in 10 years, and most people in the Biden administration, they want our industry gone in 10 years based on their rhetoric. So you’ve got to have a change in mindset from the Biden administration of their rhetoric…” Sheffield said despite the war in Ukraine, investors are telling him not to expand oil and gas production. He told the audience they have said, ‘“Scott, do not grow more than 5%, regardless.” He didn’t rule out that this mindset could change, particularly if the humanitarian conflict worsens and the supply-demand picture tightens further, but “none of us are going to jump out.” He added, “and then you’ve got to deal with the supply constraints,” and shortages of labor and materials such as fracturing sand. “It would take a good 18 months to get the industry going again to grow a lot more than the projections that people are showing.
President of Texas Oil & Gas Association: Ukraine crisis shows link between national security, energy security - The president of Texas Oil & Gas Association says the crisis in Ukraine should be a wake-up call when it comes to energy policy. Speaking at a meeting of the East Texas Gas Producers Association in Carthage, Todd Staples said the conflict painfully demonstrates the link between national security and energy security. “The invasion of Ukraine really highlighted that,” Staples said in an interview with KLTV. “And I talked (today) about the need to talk about the importance of oil and gas in our daily lives. How oil and natural gas is the basic building block of 96% of the components that we use each and every day. And we need to be telling that story.” Staples says pain being felt by consumers at the gas pump is the result of things like cancelled pipeline projects, delayed approvals for permits, and poor short-sighted decisions, all made worse by the war. “In America, the message has been we want to stop oil and gas production and we want to move it to other parts of the world,” he said. “And that has led to this situation being compounded, being much worse on consumers who are paying much higher prices at the pump than they have to pay,” Staples said. And he says expanding oil and natural gas production takes time, requiring planning and investment. “The marketplace has to work these things out,” he said. “It doesn’t happen overnight.” Staples said efforts by the Biden administration have hindered energy growth and security. “If we want energy security, and we also want to reach environmental goals, the only way to do that is to have domestically-produced energy.” Staples said. “And have oil and gas jobs in Texas and in America, not in other countries around the globe.”
Texas oil and gas has gained 16,000 jobs in the past year, new report says - The Texas Independent Producers and Royalty Owners Association announced Friday the Texas oil and gas industry saw gains of more than 1,000 jobs between December 2021 and January 2022 — and more than 15,000 positions in the past year.The newly released figures are from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and are adjusted against unemployment tax records by TIPRO in its employment calculations.TIPRO’s analysis found that Texas employment in January totaled 176,300 jobs — an increase of 1,200 jobs from the revised December numbers. Texas employment for January 2022 totaled 176,300, an increase of 1,200 jobs from revised December numbers. This number also reflects an increase of 16,000 positions since January 2021.AdThe TIPRO report noted January’s job posting data in the upstream, midstream and downstream sectors is on the rise along with rising employment, with 8,276 active job postings in the Texas oil and gas industry in January, with more than 3,000 of that number added in January alone.TIPRO identifies 14 different industry sectors within the Texas oil and natural gas industry. The sector with the highest number of unique job listings in January was support activities for oil and gas operations, which had 2,555 postings. This was closely followed by 1,022 positions in the petroleum refineries sector and 787 postings in crude petroleum extraction.Sought-after positions included heavy tractor-trailer truck drivers with 420 postings and personal service managers with 283 postings.The top three cities for unique oil and natural job postings were Houston, Midland and Odessa, according to TIPRO, and the top three companies for job postings were Halliburton with 418, National Oilwell Vasco Inc. with 408 and Baker Hughes with 381.
EIA: U.S. Shale Production Set For Big Jump In April - U.S. shale oil production in the seven most prolific shale basins are set for their biggest rise since March of 2020, according to new EIA data. The Energy Information’s Drilling Productivity Report is estimating that the total production in the seven major U.S. shale basins will rise by 117,000 bpd next month, to 8.708 million bpd, according to the EIA’s latest version of the Drilling Productivity Report. The news comes as U.S. crude oil production finds itself in the spotlight as to the reasons they are not producing more. Regardless of the EIA’s estimate for additional crude oil next month, projecting U.S. shale oil production, isn’t an exact science. For its February report, the EIA had forecast that March’s crude production would reach 8.707 million bpd in the seven most prolific basins covered by the report. Instead, March’s production reached only 8.591 million bpd, with production in the Permian undershooting EIA forecasts by 60,000 bpd. For April, the EIA now sees U.S. crude in the Permian rising from 5.138 million bpd to 5.208 million bpd—a 70,000 bpd rise. The Eagle Ford is expected to see the second largest increase with a 23,000 bpd rise to 1.146 million bpd. The Bakken is expected to increase by 16,000 bpd. The EIA has estimated that the number of Drilled but Uncompleted wells (DUCs) fell 156 to 4,372 for the month of February. The DUC count—or fracklog—is often seen as a bellwether for the state of the oil industry. Higher DUC counts often signal that oil companies are comfortable spending money on wells that are unfinished and no producing. The DUC count in the United States has been falling since mid-2020. The way the EIA calculates DUC wells, however, has been questioned, as there are numerous wells that have been unfinished for years and are extremely unlikely to ever be completed.
Oil companies hedging less future production as crude prices rise— Even before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine sent shockwaves through the oil market, U.S. shale producers—financially fit again and egged on by investors looking for more commodity exposure—had been exiting their price hedges for months. Muncrief Muncrief Now, with oil closing above $100 a barrel every single day this month, the era of shale producers selling a significant share of future output to protect against potential price declines might be over for now, people familiar with the deal flows said. Oil executives, buoyed by the best financial performance in years, are wagering that higher prices are here to stay for at least the foreseeable future as the supply-demand equation fundamentally shifts. “You’re going to see less hedging activity because management is more optimistic,” said Paul Cheng, an analyst at Scotiabank. “The best hedge is a strong balance sheet.” Since the shale boom began in the early 2010s, U.S. producers have routinely pounced on rallies to lock in prices. That risk management helps them ensure the cash flow required to make capital expenditure commitments. Producers, many of whom were already doing some hedging, got even deeper into the practice after April 2020 when the price of crude turned briefly negative. “Management teams have greater FOMO being hedged in a runaway market.” Since then, West Texas Intermediate crude, the U.S. benchmark, has made a stunning recovery, soaring above $130 a barrel in intraday trading this month to the highest levels since 2008. Prices have since come off slightly, closing Monday at $103.01—the lowest settlement all month but still the 10th straight session above $100. “Management teams have greater FOMO,” or fear of missing out, “being hedged in a runaway market,” said Michael Tran, an analyst at RBC Capital Markets. With prices rising and companies’ books stronger than they’ve been in years, many drillers are opting out of their usual hedging activity. “Fortified corporate balance sheets, reduced debt burdens and the most constructive market outlook in years has sapped producer hedging programs,” he said. Pioneer Natural Resources Co., the biggest oil producer in the Permian Basin, has closed out almost all of its hedges for this year in order to capture any run-up in prices. Shale producer Antero Resources Corp. is the “least hedged” in the company’s history, its finance chief said last month. Devon Energy Corp. is only about 20% hedged, compared to around 50% normally, and it plans to stay that way as prices show few signs of slowdown.
Study finds flaring can impact the health of people 60 miles away - A new paper looking at the health impacts of flaring in the Bakken area of North Dakota found that people 60 miles away can experience respiratory distress because of flaring. The impacts have significant economic effects that should be considered in regulatory policy, the researchers said. The lead author, Wesley Blundell, said these impacts could be even more pronounced in the Permian Basin, where flaring in 2020 was greater than the flaring in the Bakken during the study time period and population density, at least in west Texas, is greater than in North Dakota. Blundell is an assistant professor at the School of Economics at Washington State University and said he approached the topic largely from an economic perspective, including placing a dollar value on the public health impacts of flaring. This estimated dollar impact is based on the amount of natural gas flared. The study was published in the peer-reviewed Journal of Public Economics. Blundell said he accessed proprietary hospital data and looked into the hospitalizations for respiratory illness. He and his co-author also gathered the GPS locations of wells and monthly flaring reports from those sites. “We were able to start really digging into what the relationship was and how big the relationship was between the flaring of this unprocessed natural gas and all the contaminants that come with it and the respiratory health of the individuals who live up to 60 miles downwind,” he said. They found that an increase in flaring of 1 percent can lead to a 0.73 percent increase in hospitalizations. In North Dakota, the study found an increase of 11,000 hospital visits. The time period examined was early in the Bakken boom from 2007 to 2015. The New Mexico Oil and Gas Association states in a report that flaring is done in an “attempt to eliminate potentially unsafe, flammable vapors and to destroy unwanted emissions of methane and [volatile organic compounds.]” The reason behind flaring is usually safety concerns or transportation constraints, the organization states. NMOGA further states that the alternative to flaring is often venting, which leads to more emissions. Flaring also occurs after a well is completed because the natural gas that is initially produced cannot be handled by the production facilities as it includes flowback, or components from the fracking process like sand. Lack of infrastructure capacity, including pipelines to transport the natural gas, can also lead companies to flare natural gas.
After more than a week, gas is still leaking on the North Slope, ConocoPhillips says - Ten days after a natural gas leak was discovered at its Alpine oil development on Alaska’s North Slope, ConocoPhillips is still trying to identify the exact source and says it’s warming up a drilling rig that it could use to pinpoint it. Officials from the company, along with leaders of the North Slope Borough and the local Native village corporation, continue to reassure residents of the neighboring village of Nuiqsut that the leak at Alpine, roughly 8 miles away, poses no threat to public safety. And Conoco says the ongoing gas release has diminished to “below detectable levels” at the pad, CD-1, where it was first discovered. But the village’s mayor, in a phone interview Monday, said she’s frustrated that the company ended daily calls with her this week and stopped taking live questions during its briefings for residents — instead referring them to a new company-sponsored website and hotline. “The company ended direct communication with the community,” said the mayor, Rosemary Ahtuangaruak, who’s also fought against Conoco’s projects in court. “We have no ability to ask questions.” In a brief phone interview Monday, spokeswoman Rebecca Boys said the company takes the concerns of Nuiqsut’s residents “very seriously,” and is committed to providing “periodic updates to both the mayor of Nuiqsut and the community as we have new information.” “The overall context of the entire thing is: There’s no injuries. There’s no impact to the tundra. There’s no impact to wildlife,” Boys said. “We want to make sure this community is safe. We want to make sure our workforce is safe, the surrounding community, the environment, all of that.” Boys said Conoco employees traveled to Nuiqsut early last week just to make sure people were getting their questions answered. The company’s liaison in the village is also offering tours of its air monitoring site in the community. Conoco, which owns and operates Alpine, says it has not detected any natural gas outside of the CD-1 pad, where oil production has since been shut off. The company first observed the gas at a specific well house — a kind of shack enclosing the top of the well — but it’s still not known whether that well, or what part of it, might be the source of the leak, Boys said. The gas is coming from underground, below gravel, she added. “Right now, we are investigating the source,” she said. Conoco has not explained how it thinks the leak began, what might have caused it or details of how the rig could be used to correct it — other than saying that the rig now being warmed up was drilling a wastewater injection well at the time the gas was first detected. [ConocoPhillips Alaska employees evacuated due to prolonged natural gas leak on the North Slope.] The company has also reported saltwater flowing out of three well houses at CD-1 — shack-like enclosures covering the tops of the wells — estimated at 600 gallons, according to a report filed with the state Department of Environmental Conservation.
Venezuela could add 400,000 bpd to oil output if US approves licenses - Venezuela's oil output could rise by at least 400,000 barrels per day (bpd) if the United States authorizes requests by state-run PDVSA's partners to trade Venezuelan crude, the country's petroleum chamber said on Friday. The increase would allow the OPEC member's oil production, which in January averaged 755,000 bpd according to official figures, approach some 1.2 million bpd, said the president of Venezuela's Petroleum Chamber, Reinaldo Quintero. U.S. officials met Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro last weekend and demanded the country supply at least a portion of oil exports to the United States as part of any agreement to ease oil trading sanctions imposed on the country since 2019. "With the capacity we have, we can add 400,000 bpd", Quintero said in a press conference. The move could first benefit companies like Chevron Corp (CVX.N) that have pushed for authorizations and revamped licenses to trade or swap Venezuelan oil. In 2021, the country halted a free fall in its oil production and exports to reach 636,000 bpd of output, a 12 percent increase from the previous year. Even if oil sanctions on Venezuela are eased only for certain transactions, the country could ultimately add one million bpd of production, depending on capital injections allowed and trust by the parties in the dialogue, he said. Experts have been less optimistic on the forecasts, as an urgent need for drilling rigs and massive capital is putting a ceiling on any increase of production, which is reaching capacity. Years of underinvestment, mismanagement and, more recently, U.S. sanctions on PDVSA have hit Venezuela's oil production, which in the late 90s reached some 3.7 million bpd.
Shell among companies chasing Ecuadorian oil after Russia sanctions— U.S. refiners Valero Energy Corp and Marathon Petroleum Corp., along with Shell Plc’s trading unit Shell Western Supply and Trading, are rushing to secure Ecuadorian barrels after America banned imports of Russian crude. Ecuador’s state oil company EP Petroecuador held back-to-back meetings this week in Louisiana with several refiners and trading houses, according to Petroecuador’s oil trading manager, Pablo Noboa. Fuelmakers and trading companies are seeking to plug a supply gap in an already tight market, sparking a hunt to replace the Russian barrels. Oil prices have been swinging wildly on mounting concerns over the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Brent futures are trading at about $100 after surging to a 14-year high earlier this month. The ban on Russian oil includes straight-run fuel oil, a feedstock used to replace heavy crude that’s similar to what Ecuador produces. “U.S. refiners and traders are eager to sign mid- and long-term supply contracts after Russia invaded Ukraine,” Noboa said in an interview in New Orleans. “When oil in the global market is scarce, it makes sense to try to secure a steady supply.” The prospect of U.S. restrictions on Russian crude had refiners in Texas asking suppliers in Mexico and Brazil about long-term availability and prices even before the invasion of Ukraine. Brazil, which typically supplies fuel oil to Singapore and Europe, sold one cargo to the U.S. Gulf Coast in February. Marathon, the largest U.S. fuelmaker, is seeking 11 to 22 cargoes of Ecuadorian heavy sour oil over 11 months, starting as soon as June, Noboa said. Jamaica’s state-owned oil company Petrojam Ltd is looking for a similar arrangement for 11 cargoes and Shell Western is seeking to extend an existing 3-year supply contract that expires in December 2023. Marathon and Valero didn’t immediately return emails seeking comment. Shell is willing to pay more for the oil as long as it can load from Ecuador’s OCP terminal that handles larger vessels, he said. Valero is also seeking to secure a supply contract. Shell declined to comment. Since the invasion of Ukraine, Petrojam has been reaching out to countries including Guyana and Argentina, to secure additional supplies of crude oil and fuels. It’s talking to Nigerian National Petroleum Corp. about supplying 4 million barrels of crude annually, and is “currently in dialogue with Petroecuador and Ecopetrol in Colombia to establish term supply agreements,” General Manager Winston Watson said in a statement. Ecuador, a former OPEC member, plans to boost oil production amid rising crude prices. “It’s now or never, we won’t have this window of opportunity of good prices” again, Petroecuador chief Italo Cedeno said late Tuesday in an online presentation. With the help of the private sector, the company plans to increase production by more than half in four years, to 763,000 barrels a day. Petroecuador expects to sell the oil at market prices. The company is seeking to avoid repeating an earlier mistake, involving oil-backed loans with Asian companies that eventually led to millions of dollars of losses for the country, Noboa said. Ecuador is currently renegotiating the oil loans with Asia in an effort to free more barrels to sell on the spot market.
Backed by Government, Argentina E&Ps Upping Natural Gas Production - Amid soaring prices for the import of liquefied natural gas (LNG) and a tight global energy market, Argentina’s efforts to increase natural gas output appear to be paying off. Buenos Aires-based generator and exploration and production (E&P) company Pampa Energía SA announced it would up its gas production by 60% this year. The plan is to hit 11.4 million cubic meters/day (Mm3/d) by this winter in the Southern Hemisphere, the company said.Production increases would come mainly from new capacity in Neuquén, home to most of the Vaca Muerta shale deposit. The company is developing 20 wells at the El Mangrullo field in Neuquén, and is also constructing a gas treatment plant.Argentina officials have been vocal about the rising cost of LNG, which is used to meet seasonal demand each winter. The market is even tighter since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.Vaca Muerta has been said to be geologically comparable to the Eagle Ford Shale in South Texas. To try to jumpstart E&P development from the area, the current government under Alberto Fernández has held numerous natural gas purchase tenders. In a hydrocarbons promotion bill sent to congress in September, Argentina’s government also said natural gas would be an essential part of the country’s energy transition. The bill includes price stabilization mechanisms and guarantees that volumes produced for export will see preferential tax rates and access to capital markets.The government has also given the green light to a new Vaca Muerta gas pipeline. The $1.5 billion, 24 Mm3/d Néstor Kirchner pipeline is to run from Tratayen in Neuquén to Salliqueló in Buenos Aires province. Officials have said the pipeline would be in operation by winter 2023.
New North Sea gas field goes into production, boosting UK energy security - A new gas field found under the North Sea off East Anglia has this week produced its ‘first gas’ – and more such developments are on the way, according to IOG, an independent offshore exploration and production company. IOG said that gas from its Blythe well started flowing into the UK gas grid at the weekend, with a second, called Elgood, due to start producing gas within days. Both are part of its Saturn Banks project. The gas will flow into Bacton, on the Norfolk coast, and meet demand in the southeast and then the rest of the UK. The announcement today was welcomed by Offshore Energies UK (OEUK, which represents the UK offshore industry. It said the new field demonstrated the vital role of the UK Continental Shelf in supporting the nation’s energy security during the current global energy crisis – and during the planned transition to net zero by 2050 and beyond. IOG’s announcement coincided with Monday’s Downing Street meeting between Boris Johnson and leaders of the UK’s offshore oil and gas industry, called to discuss how the UK might reduce its reliance on Russian energy following the invasion of Ukraine. Saturn Banks also creates a new production hub in the Southern North Sea, allowing any further discoveries to be linked back to it by pipelines. Development of another field, Nailsworth, is expected to begin this year, and would produce gas towards the end of 2023. This milestone came less than 30 months after the final investment decision, despite technical challenges during the drilling phase.
Eni Declares Force Majeure After Oil Spill in Bayelsa | Business Post Nigeria - Eni, the parent company of Nigerian Agip Oil Company (NAOC), has declared a force majeure on expected oil output at its Brass terminal in Yenagoa. This means a shortfall of 25,000 barrels of crude oil and 13 million standard cubic metres of gas per day from the terminal. A force majeure is a legal clause in contracts that absolves firms from legal liabilities due to circumstances beyond their control. “An incident occurred on the Ogoda/Brass 24 oil line at Okparatubo in Nembe Local Government Area of Bayelsa. The incident was caused by a blast, consequently causing a spill. “All wells connected to that pipeline were immediately shut whilst river booms and containment barges were mobilised to reduce the impact of the spill. “Regulators for inspection visit and repair teams have also been activated. The Federal Government, Bayelsa and security authorities were notified,” Eni said in a statement. The blast, which occurred a couple of days ago resulted from an attack on the facility, Eni stated. It was the second attack in the last three weeks after a similar incident on February 28 at Eni’s Obama flow station. The Obama incident led to a production shortfall of 5,000 barrels of crude oil per day. “Force Majeure has been declared at Brass terminal, Bonny NLNG and Okpai Power Plant,’’ Eni stressed. The National Oil Spills Detection and Response Agency (NOSDRA) confirmed that Joint Investigative Visits on the two incidents had been conducted. It said that field officers assigned to the visits had not filed their reports, however. Equally, the Shell Petroleum Development Company of Nigeria, SPDC – a local subsidiary of Shell Plc, on Monday declared force majeure on Bonny Light crude oil exports on Monday. These disruptions mean Nigeria will not be able to meet up to expectations for its crude production for March under the agreement with the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies known collectively as OPEC+.
Shell, Eni declare force majeure on two large Nigerian oil flows— Shell Plc and Eni SpA both declared force majeure on key oil flows from Nigeria, threatening to disrupt supplies in a market that’s already fretting about the impact of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Shell’s measure has been in place since March 3 and applies to its Bonny export program. Eni’s relates to Brass crude cargoes and follows a pipeline blast in the Bayelsa state. Force majeure is a legal step that allows companies not to meet contractual obligations for reasons that are out of their control. Shipments of the two grades had been planned at a rate of 170,000 barrels a day next month but have been in a state of decline over the past few years, according to loading programs seen by Bloomberg. Flows back in 2020 were planned at about 320,000 barrels a day. A force majeure doesn’t necessarily mean the entirety of supply will be lost for a given period of time. Stored cargoes could still be shipped and repairs would allow shipments to resume. The market is closely watching what will happen to Russian oil supply in the wake of the country’s invasion of Ukraine. Some oil companies have stopped buying new cargoes from Moscow and some governments have announced that they are imposing bans on petroleum imports from Russia. Shell has said it will try to go elsewhere for barrels. The lost shipments could be significant for Nigeria. The country was scheduled to export almost 1.5 million barrels a day this month, loading plans show. It wasn’t clear when Eni’s force majeure began. The company said that Nigeria LNG is also affected by its measure.
Setback for Shell in $1.95bn debt appeal as Egbalor community wins Round One – Shell, which is contesting a judgement debt of N800 billion (or $1.95 billion) awarded the Egbalor, Ebubu community in Eleme Local Government Area of Rivers State over environmental destruction that occurred as a result of an oil spill, ran into some setbacks on Friday at the Appeal Court Owerri Division as three justices that sat on its appeal found against it in the interlocutory applications brought ahead of the main appeal it has filed to upturn the lower court’s judgement. Indeed, plans by the international oil company to sell some assets in Nigeria are now on hold as the justices ruled that Shell must deposit the said judgement sum of N800 billion with the court within 48 hours without which it must not carry out any assets sale. In a unanimous decision, the three justices of the Court of Appeal Owerri Division who are taking the appeal, specifically ruled and ordered as follows: That the international oil giant, Shell, is restrained from disposing of any of its assets in Nigeria pending the satisfaction of the judgement debt in favour of the Egbalor Community; Shell is ordered to pay the entire judgement debt of N800 billion plus accrued interest from the date of Judgement of the Federal High Court on 20/11/2020 into an interest yielding escrow account controlled by the Court of Appeal within 48 hours of the ruling! The judgement on Friday was the outcome of arguments heard last month over key applications before the main appeal. Four significant applications had been argued before the justices, one of which came from Shell and three from the lawyers to the Egbalor Community. The applications are Shell’s presentation of an application for stay of execution of the judgement pending appeal; while the community’s lawyers presented the following applications for the justices to consider: A motion by the community’s lawyers, Ndarani (SAN) & Co., asking the Court of Appeal, Owerri Division to order Shell to pay the judgement debt of N800 billion (about $2 billion) with interest at 2% per annum from the date of the judgement on 27th November 2020 into court pending the outcome of the appeal proceedings; An application to set aside Shell’s Notice of Appeal on the ground that it is incurably defective on points of law; An application for an order of the Court of Appeal to halt any sale of Shell’s assets in Nigeria, pending the outcome of the Court proceedings in this case and/or final satisfaction of the judgement debt by Shell Nigeria and its parent companies, Shell International Limited and Shell Exploration & Production B.V. Last month, all the pending motions had been vigorously moved and fully argued, with the court refusing to take Shell’s motion for stay of execution of the judgement pending appeal, opting instead for accelerated hearing of the substantive appeal.
Reps Probe Oil Spills Petition Against Addax Petroleum, Aiteo | Business Post Nigeria -- The House of Representatives has commenced investigation into the alleged involvement of Addax Petroleum Nigeria Limited and Aiteo Eastern Exploration and Production Company in oil spills in Rivers State. Business Post had reported that three Kalabari Local Government Areas of Degema, Asari-Toru and Akuku-Toru of the state had petitioned the two oil firms over their activities in Rivers State. The petition was laid on the floor of the House of Representatives by the member representing Degema/Bonny Federal Constituency, Mr Farah Dagogo. The Amanyanabo of Kalabari, Professor T.J.T Princewill, accused Addax Petroleum Nigeria Limited of “brazen disregard and disrespect to Kalabari people” with its activities in OML126 and OML137 oil fields. The monarch in the petition explained that Addax has refused to enter into a Memorandum of Understanding with the host communities. It warned of a likely breakdown of law and order in the said oil fields, explaining that the oil exploration activities by Addax have continued to threaten their source of livelihood and the kingdom as a whole. “We have done everything humanly possible as law-abiding citizens to make Addax Petroleum Nigeria Limited see reasons and execute a Memorandum of Understanding with the Kalabari Kingdom as a way of ensuring a peaceful working environment of mutual benefits to all but will appear that Addax Petroleum Nigeria will have none of it, and has gone ahead to disrespect Amanyanabo and Natural Ruler of Kalabari Kingdom,” a part of the petition read. Similarly, the Kalabari Frontiers wants the House of Reps to mandate Aiteo to provide relief materials to the Kalabari Communities affected by their outrageous crude oil spill in well 1, OML 29, Santa Barbara Oil Field. The petition signed by the parties – Alabo Fiala Okoye-Davies, Chief Fiala Tuboalabo Fiala, Chief Flag Amakiri, Mr Japusoibina Ekine, and Ibimina Victor Osoma, also requested for effective remediation plan be put in place for mitigation of the polluted region in line with global best practices, international standards and technical expertise’ “Compensation, water rights and individual claims be made payable to thousands of those economically displaced,” the petition further stated.In his reaction, the Speaker of the House of Representatives, Mr Femi Gbajabiamila, directed the House Committee on Petitions to investigate the allegations and revert to the House.
ExxonMobil defends purchase of Russia-loaded Kazakh crude on US sanctions guidance --ExxonMobil defended March 11 its purchase of a tanker of Kazakhstan’s CPC crude oil being delivered to the UK’s Fawley refinery from the Russian port of Novorossiisk, saying Kazakh crude was excluded from US sanctions targeting Moscow. Following protests against the delivery by environmental group Greenpeace, ExxonMobil said the crude, derived from oil fields in Kazakhstan in which the US major is a shareholder, was free of any Russian oil that also uses the pipeline to the Black Sea port, making it permissible for purchase under new US Treasury Department guidance on sanctions. It comes as the UK has moved to block Russian shipping and phase out Russian energy imports in response to the invasion of Ukraine. “No ExxonMobil equity crude that is transported via the Caspian pipeline en route to the US or Europe is from Russia,” ExxonMobil said in emailed comments, adding: “The Caspian pipeline delivers oil and gas from Kazakhstan and is not subject to sanctions at this time.” Kazakhstan’s flagship CPC crude oil — a light, relatively low-sulfur blend and a major export earner for the country — has traded at a steep discount in the spot market since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and consequent sanctions against Moscow, due to the crude being loaded in Russia, and heightened shipping risk in the Black Sea. However, Kazakhstan is not a party to the conflict in Ukraine and major oil and gas companies that have stakes in Kazakh production have continued to ship the crude across southern Russia through the CPC pipeline, which is the Central Asian country’s main route to global markets, accounting for nearly 80% of Kazakh oil exports. Total CPC shipment volumes were over 1.5 million b/d in February, with about 90% coming from Kazakhstan, but the remainder from Russian fields in the north Caspian operated by Lukoil. Several international oil companies including ExxonMobil hold stakes in the pipeline with Russian partners such as Lukoil and state-owned Rosneft, alongside their investments in Kazakh fields such as Tengiz and Kashagan. However, on March 8 the US Treasury Department issued guidance confirming Kazakh crude is not subject to sanctions despite its reliance on the route, highlighting systems that “segregate” Russian from Kazakh crude.
New Zealand's oil output at 15-year low in 2021 -New Zealand's oil output dropped to a 15-year low last year largely because of the decline in output from the Pohokura field offshore the west coast of the country's north island. The Pohokura field together with the Maari field have contested as New Zealand's largest oil field, according to the latest official data. New Zealand's production of crude oil, condensate, naphtha and natural gas liquids (NGL) dropped to an average of 23,500 b/d in calendar 2021, down by 12pc from the 26,800 b/d produced in 2020, and the lowest average daily since the 18,700 b/d produced in 2006, according to latest energy quarterly data from New Zealand's Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment (MBIE). The slide in New Zealand's crude output reflected the 37pc drop in output from the Pohokura field — which is operated by Austrian independent OMV — to an average of 3,100 b/d in 2021, from 4,900 b/d in 2020. It also marked a 15-year low in output from the field, MBIE data show. New Zealand is reliant on crude imports for feedstock for its only refinery, the 135,000 b/d Marsden Point plant, which is due to close at the end of the month and be converted into an oil product import terminal. The country will subsequently be entirely reliant on oil product imports to meet fuel demand, and will therefore reduce crude imports. Crude imports averaged 64,800 b/d in calendar 2021, down by 16pc from 76,700 b/d in 2020, and lower by 38pc from 105,000 b/d imported in 2019, MBIE data show. Total crude and petroleum product imports fell by almost 8pc to 129,900 b/d in 2021 from 140,500 b/d in 2020, and were lower by 21pc from 165,000 b/d imported in 2019. The decline in imports largely reflects the weaker demand for jet fuel and road transport fuel as New Zealand imposed tight restrictions on air travel and implemented city lockdowns in an effort to combat the spread of Covid-19.
The World Could See A Record-Breaking Oil Supply Shock - The global oil market could lose 3 million barrels per day (bpd) of supply from Russia starting in April, as sanctions on banks and buyers’ reluctance to purchase Russian oil could result in the biggest oil supply crisis in decades, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said in its Oil Market Reportfor this month.Since Russia invaded Ukraine at the end of February, the United States has banned imports of Russian energy while the UK is working to phase out its Russian supply by the end of the year. Even though Europe has not sanctioned Russian oil and gas, a growing number of European buyers are joining the wave of condemnation of Russia’s war and pledge not to buy its oil. As of last week, as much as 66 percent of Russian seaborne spot cargoes were struggling to find a buyer, according to estimates from J.P. Morgan Global Research.The Russian invasion of Ukraine came at a time when the oil market was already tightening, with inventories in OECD economies already drawn down to well below the five-year average and sitting at their lowest levels in eight years.The immediate solution that could help offset the loss of Russian oil supply lies in the two most influential members of OPEC, which, together with Russia, have been managing supply to the market in the form of the OPEC+ agreement for several years now.However, OPEC’s Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) – the only two producers believed to have enough spare capacity to ramp up production in the short term – have not stepped forward to fill in the widening gap that buyers’ “self-sanctioning” of Russian oil is leaving. The UAE confused the oil market last week with somewhat contradictory messages that it backs additional increases in OPEC+, but energy minister Suhail al Mazrouei later reaffirmed that the UAE would stick to the plan of gradual production increases.“The OPEC+ alliance agreed on 2 March to stick with a modest, scheduled output rise of 400 kb/d for April, insisting no supply shortage exists. Saudi Arabia and the UAE – the only producers with substantial spare capacity – are, so far, showing no willingness to tap into their reserves,” the IEA said in its report.On the other hand, if the Saudis and the UAE were to tap into their reserves, the global spare capacity—largely in their hands—would be so thin that a turn for the worse in the Russian oil supply, or another outage in Libya, would leave global oil producers with such a small cushion that a price spike would be certain to follow.So why isn’t U.S. shale pumping more, especially with the “blessing” of the White House and Secretary of Energy Jennifer Granholm, who urgedAmerican producers “to responsibly increase short-term supply where we can right now to stabilize the market and to minimize harm to American families.Producers have said why for months: there is a time lag between drilling and first oil, also because of years of underinvestment, capital discipline, discouraging federal policies toward the oil industry, and supply chain bottlenecks.For example, even if ConocoPhillips decided to pump more oil today, the first drop of new oil would come within eight to 12 months, CEO Ryan Lance told CNBC last week. “Even if shale production responds to the price signal, it cannot grow by more than 1.4 mbd this year given labor and infrastructure constraints,” J.P. Morgan said this week. Then there is the prospect of additional barrels from Iran, but they “could be months off,” the IEA said, adding that the Islamic Republic could ramp up exports by around 1 million bpd over a six-month period when—and if—a deal is reached.
The World Is Facing A Critical Diesel Shortage - Yves here. I have regularly been mentioning a US diesel shortage as a real risk if the Russian sanctions aren’t relaxed soon in private discussions and should have Said Something on the blog. This post depicts the issue as much broader.However, it does not unpack the technical issue at all and yours truly will take a stab. This is a layperson/simplified version, so if I got anything wrong, please pipe up in comments. Additional details also welcome.This is a very simplified view of how petroleum distillation works:Notice the ordering from top to bottom. The “lighter” products have shorter carbon chains. That means less energy per unit volume. So diesel is more energy dense than gasoline. But this simple picture ignores that crude oil is most assuredly not created equal. Light sweet crude, the sort that comes from Saudi Arabia, is very much skewed towards the gasoline end of the spectrum when refined. Shale gas is even lighter. By contrast, Iran and Venezuela produce what is called heavy, sour crude.Refiners can change some of these “fractions” to others, as ACEA explains:
- cracking, which breaking large hydrocarbon chains into smaller ones
- unification – which combines smaller hydrocarbon chains to make larger ones
- alteration – which re-arranges various isomers to make desired hydrocarbons
However, this process is not cost free. For instance, I have regularly read that oil from Iran and Venezuela are attractive on world markets only at prices of over $100 a barrel. I take that to mean only when prevailing prices are high is it worth the cost and effort to crack them to produce gasoline. My understanding is that Russia oil is heavy but not as heavy as Venezuela’s or Iran’s crude, that its energy density is very well suited for home heating oil, and as the article below suggests, diesel. Diesel is important for Europe since many passenger cars as well as trucks use diesel. In addition, I assume (and welcome reader input) that getting diesel from light sweet crude by unification is mighty inefficient, otherwise coming up with more diesel would not be such a big problem. And as for Venezuela, experts have opined that due to years of sanctions-induced underinvestment, Venezuela can’t produce enough to fill America’s Russia shortfall. Plus the US is unable to get over itself. From the Financial Times at the start of the week:The White House this month sent three top officials to talk to Maduro, even though the US does not recognise him as president and has indicted him as a drug trafficker with a $15mn price on his head. The US government acknowledged last week that one aim was “certainly” to discuss energy security following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.The visit — the first by a White House official to Caracas since the 1990s — prompted a fierce backlash at home, not only from Republican hawks like Florida senator Marco Rubio but also Bob Menendez, the Democratic head of the Senate foreign relations committee…..But no groundwork was laid in the US so the whole thing went pear shaped.Now to the OilPrice story.
The World Is Facing A Critical Diesel Shortage - A crude oil shortage is invariably bad news for those that consume oil products. But when it comes to these products, a diesel shortage has the potential to be even more devastating than a crude shortage. Reuters’ Rowena Edwards reported in early February that the supply tightness in crude oil, gas, and coal was beginning to spread to oil products, most notably middle distillates, the most popular among which is diesel fuel.The fuel, whose biggest market is freight transport, got hit severely during the pandemic lockdowns as transport rates declined. After the end of the lockdowns, however, as economies began to recover from the worst of the pandemic, transport picked up, and diesel fuel demand jumped. Yet production still has to catch up.Reuters’ John Kemp reported this week that diesel fuel stocks in Europe are at their lowest since 2008, and 8 percent—or 35 million barrels—lower than the five-year average for this time of the year.In the United States, the situation is graver still. There, diesel fuel inventories are 21 percent lower than the pre-pandemic five-year seasonal average, which translates into 30 million barrels.In Singapore, a global energy trade hub, diesel fuel inventories are 4 million barrels below the seasonal five-year average from before the pandemic.What is perhaps worse, however, is that over the past 12 months, the combined diesel fuel inventories in the U.S., Europe, and Singapore, have shed a combined 110 million barrels that have yet to be replaced, Kemp noted.On top of all this, Russia is a major supplier of diesel, meaning Western sanctions for its invasion of Ukraine are affecting these supplies too. With the market increasingly tight, Shell and BP have shied away from offering any diesel fuel cargos on the German market for two weeks, Reuters reported last week, for fear of shortages.In the UK, meanwhile, the Daily Mail cited analysts as warning that the government may need to resort to diesel fuel rationing from next month because of the state of the market and the ban on Russian oil imports, which include diesel fuel. Russia supplied a third of the UK’s imported diesel before the ban.“Risks of energy rationing and ultimately a recession are growing by the day – something most policymakers seem to be ignoring or not grasping right now.‘If Russian oil is not integrated back i nto the market within the next few weeks, we are at a real risk of having to ration crude and products by the summer,” the Daily Mail report quoted an unnamed spokesman for consultancy Energy Aspects as saying.
Iranian company to build 113,000-ton oil tanker for NITC | Hellenic Shipping News -Offshore Industries Complex (ISOICO) and the official deal on this due will be signed soon, NITC Public Relations and International Affairs Department reported. Shiva said his company has awarded the mentioned project to a domestic firm in line with the emphasis of the Leader of the Islamic Revolution Seyed Ali Khamenei and the realization of the current year’s motto which is “Production: Support and the Elimination of Obstacles”. “At the request of the National Iranian Tanker Company, the vessel will be the first domestically built dual-fuel oil tanker to run on liquefied natural gas (LNG) and low-sulfur Mazut,” he explained. The Aframax tanker, which is environment-friendly and will be designed and built according to the latest standards of the International Maritime Organization (IMO), will also be in full compliance with phase three of the Energy Efficiency Design Index (EEDI), according to the NITC head. Shiva stated that the construction of this tanker inside the country is going to create job opportunities for several thousand people and will lead to the development of the country’s shipbuilding and other related industries. He also mentioned his company’s determination for conducting the overhaul operations of the company’s fleet inside the country and specified: “So far, the repairs of 24 tankers and submarines have been entrusted to domestic companies, which is aimed at supporting domestic industries and creating jobs in the country.” The official further noted that NITC is also supplying the necessary materials for the mentioned projects including paints, oils, and chemical products from domestic sectors, which has also saved the country a significant amount of money. The performance of the National Iranian Tanker Company and round-the-clock efforts of the sailors of the company’s fleet in transporting oil and oil products have been in the center of attention of the country’s authorities these days, as it has been appreciated by the oil minister and also welcomed by other members of the cabinet.
Iraq's oil supply compatible with global demand: statement (Xinhua) -- Iraq said on Wednesday that its crude oil exports are in line with the consumption in the world oil market, ruling out the need to increase oil production. A statement by the Iraqi State Organization for Marketing of Oil (SOMO) said with "the developments and changes that the global market is going through today, especially with regard to the balance of global supply and demand for crude oil, Iraq believes that the level of oil exports supplied to the global market is commensurate with the level of global consumption and demand." The statement stressed that the planned increases by the OPEC+ countries are sufficient to address any shortages that may occur in the crude oil supplies to the world markets. SOMO's statement came as the crude oil prices in the world market witnessed a significant increase because of the Russian-Ukrainian crisis and the sanctions imposed on Russia. Earlier in the month, the Ministry of Oil said Iraq exported 92.79 million barrels of crude oil in February with an average of 3.31 million barrels per day. Iraq used to export more than 100 million barrels per month with higher revenues, but the OPEC+'s agreement to cut oil production and a dip in oil prices because of the COVID-19 pandemic have combined to weaken the country's oil exports. Iraq's economy heavily relies on crude oil export, which accounts for more than 90 percent of the country's revenues.
Japan to call on Middle East oil producers to raise output - Japan will ask oil producing countries in the Middle East to ramp up production in the face of surging prices triggered by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Prime Minister Fumio Kishida said March 13. “I am ready to lead diplomatic efforts myself to secure supplies from oil producers in the Middle East with whom Japan has maintained steady ties with regard to natural resources,” Kishida said at a meeting of his Liberal Democratic Party in Tokyo. He also said the government will provide subsidies to oil distributors to prevent the national average of gas prices from rising above the current level of 172 yen ($1.48) per liter. The subsidies were raised to 17.7 yen per liter on March 10, up from 5 yen per liter before. Kishida also said the government will diversify energy sources and their suppliers to help Japan become more resilient in energy crises. But he reiterated that the government will not join the United States and some European countries in imposing sanctions against Russia hitting Russia’s energy sector. “We stand firm against Russia’s aggression, but we also need to protect Japan’s national interests in securing energy supplies,” he said. The United States has banned imports of crude oil, natural gas and coal from Russia, expanding an array of punitive measures to cover the energy sector, which forms the core of the Russian economy. Japan relies on Russia for about 8 percent of its natural gas needs and about 4 percent of its crude oil needs.
Saudi Aramco awards Schlumberger gas drilling project - Schlumberger announced a major contract award by Saudi Aramco for integrated drilling and well construction services in a gas drilling project. The integrated project scope encompasses drilling rigs and technologies and services, including drill bits, measurement while drilling (MWD) and logging while drilling (LWD), drilling fluids, cementing, and completing wells. Schlumberger will leverage digital solutions to enhance integrated drilling performance, including the DrillOps* on-target well delivery solution which uses data analysis, learning systems and automation to execute a digital well plan, improving drilling efficiency, consistency and performance. “This contract award represents the continuation of an ongoing collaboration with Saudi Aramco,” said Tarek Rizk, MENA president, Schlumberger. “Through our committed teams, differentiated technology, and integrated drilling and well construction services we will work closely with Saudi Aramco on well delivery and set a new performance benchmark.” This award represents a significant endorsement of Schlumberger’s fit-for-basin technology and domain expertise for gas well development in the region.
Again, Crude Oil Production by OPEC, Allies Falls by 890,000 bpd – Despite the decision of the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies, OPEC+, to raise crude oil production by 340,000 barrels per day last month, the gap between the group’s actual output and target still widened to 890,000 bpd, according to the cartel’s report. It was also a month that saw Nigeria raise output to 1.51 million bpd, a marked improvement from the previous few months when the country struggled to produce between 1.2 million bpd and 1.4 bpd. Nigeria has been constrained in meeting its OPEC allocation for months, and as of January had as much as 300,000 barrels per day deficit, mainly due to ageing upstream infrastructure and sabotage as well as technical reasons.Despite the over 1.7 million barrels per day output allowed by OPEC+, the country had managed to increase production to about 1.4 million, the highest in recent times, going by the latest OPEC review. Although there are issues surrounding the sustainability of the current upward trend of the country’s supply to the global market, it is seen as a good sign for the nation’s oil and gas industry. The latest report showed that production from OPEC+ participants was 38.25 million bpd in February, up from 37.91 million bpd in January, but below the target of 39.14 million, according to an Argus survey, which shares insights and analyses about energy and commodity markets worldwide. The latest report indicated that notably, the quota-exempt OPEC members, Iran and Libya raised output by a combined 170,000 bpd in February, with the north African country accounting for 130,000 bpd of this after an early-January restart of four crude and condensate fields. But 14 of the wider group’s 19 members, including Nigeria, produced below quota in the month, as dwindling spare capacity, underinvestment and infrastructure restraints have constrained output increases. The OPEC+ group’s stance on rising prices is that they are down to geopolitics and not market fundamentals, with the organisation’s Secretary-General, Mr Sanusi Barkindo, saying during the week that “we have no control over current events.” Barkindo stated that despite the surging crude oil prices, there’s no shortage of the commodity in the market, although he admitted that not all member countries are currently able to fulfil their obligations because of capacity constraints.OPEC+ ministers will meet on March 31, to decide a production strategy for May, when five countries — Russia, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Kuwait and the UAE — will see upwards revisions to the baseline levels that determine their quotas and compliance. This would see the combined monthly output quota increase move to 432,000 bpd from 400,000 bpd, which could go some way to satisfying calls for the group to raise the pace of production increases. Minister of State Petroleum, Mr Timipre Sylva, last week said that the absence of long-term investment in the oil and gas sector, as well as insecurity, should be blamed on Nigeria’s current low crude oil production. Sylva stated that this development was responsible for the inability of Nigeria to meet the OPEC quota in recent times in addition to the speed with which International Oil Companies (IOCs) and other investors were withdrawing investments in hydrocarbon exploitation.Emmanuel Addeh in Abuja
Ukraine war threatens oil demand and investment, OPEC says — Russia’s invasion of Ukraine threatens to intensify the surge in global inflation, hurting oil demand and investment, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries warned. International crude prices briefly hit a 13-year high of almost $140 a barrel last week as a boycott of Russian supplies deepened the shortfall in already tight world markets. Brent futures have since retreated by almost 30%, but fears persist over the danger of a long-term loss of exports from Russia, which is part of the OPEC+ coalition. “This conflict has so far led to a number of issues, including rising commodity prices, which are further escalating global inflation,” OPEC said in its monthly report. “The effects of the conflict and especially the impact of rising inflation, if sustained, will lead to a decline in consumption and investments to varying degrees.” Growing inflation is proving a major challenge for the world economy, and inflicting a cost-of-living crisis in many countries, as supplies of raw materials fail to keep pace with the post-pandemic recovery in consumption -- and face further constraints from the war unleashed in Ukraine. OPEC’s de facto leader Saudi Arabia has so far rebuffed U.S. pressure to fill the gap left by Russia by opening the taps, partly out of reluctance to harm its political partnership with Moscow, and partly from a belief that oil markets remain adequately supplied despite the turmoil. Still, with major oil companies deserting Russia and international condemnation getting louder, the pressure on OPEC+ members to pick a side may eventually become irresistible. The very acknowledgment of the war -- even in careful terms that avoided the word “invasion” -- is an unusual step for the group’s monthly report, which typically side-steps any controversies involving OPEC+ members. The 23-nation alliance next meets on March 31. The report backs up Riyadh’s view that OPEC is producing enough to keep markets broadly balanced. Its 13 members boosted output by 440,000 barrels a day to 28.47 million a day in February -- bringing the average for the year so far to 28.25 million a day, or a little above the average required this quarter.
Hedge funds slash oil positions amid extreme volatility: Kemp -- Investors slashed bullish bets on oil last week as prices surged to multi-year highs, the economic outlook deteriorated, and extreme volatility made derivatives positions more expensive to maintain. Hedge funds and other money managers sold the equivalent of 142 million barrels in the six most important petroleum-related futures and options contracts in the week to March 8. Last week’s sales were the 11th largest out of 469 weeks since March 2013, according to records published by ICE Futures Europe and the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Portfolio managers sold Brent (-97 million barrels), European gas oil (-23 million), U.S. gasoline (-13 million) and U.S. diesel (-11 million) and were buyers only of NYMEX and ICE WTI (+2 million). The selling was dominated by closure of existing bullish long positions (-114 million barrels) rather than initiation of new bearish short ones (+28 million), consistent with a risk-reducing strategy. Funds ended up with a net position in the six contracts of just 588 million barrels (45th percentile for all weeks since 2013) down from a recent peak of 761 million barrels (70th percentile) on Jan. 18. Bullish long positions outnumbered bearish short ones by a ratio of 4.76:1 (61st percentile) down from 6.24 (80th percentile) in mid-January (https://tmsnrt.rs/3tXSCsU). In recent weeks, the record backwardation in futures prices, accelerating rise in spot prices, and increasing day-to-day volatility have been signs of a market under extreme stress and likely to reverse course. Soaring oil prices have been part of a broader increase in the price of raw materials, manufactured items and freight charges which has raised the probability of a recession within the next 12 months. Reflecting the deteriorating economic outlook and volatility costs, distillate positions were cut to 85 million barrels (67th percentile) last week down from a recent peak of 144 million barrels (85th percentile) five weeks earlier. Rising volatility is also a symptom of a market becoming less liquid, with both bullish and bearish investors less willing to take on new risk exposures and instead reducing positions until trading becomes calmer. Heightened volatility has fed through into more demands for margin from brokers and clearing houses and makes futures and options positions increasingly expensive to maintain, encouraging fund managers to trim positions. Extreme volatility and rapidly diminishing liquidity is reminiscent of trading conditions in the second quarter of 2008 as oil prices climbed towards a record high in the first half of July before plunging. Oil prices are caught between rising supply risks as a result of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the consequent sanctions on the country’s output, and growing demand risks stemming from inflation and a possible recession. In this increasingly unstable and chaotic situation, many hedge fund managers have decided it is prudent to realise profits from previous bullish positions and reduce risk exposure until the balance of risks becomes clearer.
Oil Slides as China, India Scoop Up Russian Oil Exports -- Oil futures registered steep losses Monday afternoon, briefly sending the U.S. crude benchmark below $100 per barrel. The losses followed reports suggesting that China and India -- the world's first- and third-largest oil importers, are considering circumventing international sanctions slapped on Moscow in response for its aggression in Ukraine to purchase discounted Russian oil and commodities. India is said to be working on the mechanisms that would allow it to purchase cheaper oil from Russia using its national currency, the Rupee, according to sources familiar with negotiations. Last year, Russia's oil shipments to India averaged 43,400 barrels per day (bpd), a marginal amount when compared to the 4.8 million bpd in India's total oil demand. That might soon change. Bloomberg reported that the country's top refiner, IOC, bought 3 million barrels (bbl) of Russian Urals crude via tender for May delivery -- its first purchase of the grade since Russia invaded Ukraine on Feb. 24. Restricted financing and limited demand from Western buyers have forced Moscow to offer Asian buyers favorable terms to purchase its oil cargos. Cheaper Russian crude can help Indian consumers and businesses to weather a major inflationary shock from surging commodity prices. India, a major U.S. ally, has neither condemned the Russian invasion of Ukraine nor imposed sanctions. Just like India, China, Asia's largest economy, has not called Russia's military action against Ukraine an invasion and has abstained from a United Nation's Security Council vote condemning Russia. China is far more dependent on Russian oil and commodity trade than India. Oil traders are also closely monitoring a developing situation around a COVID-19 outbreak in China after health officials shut down the southern city of Shenzhen, a business hub of 17.5 million people, and restricted access to Shanghai by suspending transit services. China's coronavirus infections have risen exponentially in recent days, with cases concentrated in the country's large business and manufacturing centers, fueling concerns over a renewed hit to fuel demand. Authorities in China are enforcing a "zero COVID tolerance" policy and have locked down entire cities to find and isolate every infected person -- a strategy that has hindered economic recovery. . China's stock market took a heavy beating on Monday, with key indexes listed in Hong Kong plummeting more than 7% and wiping out $2.1 trillion in market value. At settlement, NYMEX April West Texas Intermediate fell $6.32 to $103.01 per bbl, and ICE Brent May contract plunged $5.77 to $106.90 per bbl. NYMEX April RBOB futures plummeted 14.32 cents to $3.1689 per gallon, and April ULSD futures slumped 14.13 cents to $3.2763 per gallon.
U.S. oil tumbles more than 8%, dips below $100 per barrel - U.S. oil tumbled more than 8% on Monday, breaking below $100 per barrel, amid talks between Russia and Ukraine as well as new Covid-19 lockdowns in China — which could dent demand. West Texas Intermediate crude futures, the U.S. oil benchmark, lost 8.75% to trade at $99.76 per barrel at the lows of the day. International benchmark Brent crude shed 8% to $103.68 per barrel. In afternoon trading some of the losses were recovered. WTI settled 5.78% lower at $103.01 per barrel, with Brent finishing the day at $106.90 per barrel, for a loss of 5.1%. Russia and Ukraine were slated to resume peace talks on Monday, while China's March demand is set to be revised lower due to new coronavirus lockdowns. Additionally, open interest in Brent futures has dropped, which means financial players are reducing risk. "Today's action reflects a shift in sentiment in Russia/Ukraine causing sentiment traders to sell, fundamental concerns around demand coming from China's Covid lockdowns causing fundamental traders to take profits, and technical pressure as crude breaks" key levels, said Babin. Monday's sell-off builds on last week's decline, which saw WTI and Brent register their worst week since November. Oil surged above $100 in late February as Russia invaded Ukraine, prompting fears that supply would be disrupted in what was already a tight market. It was the first time oil breached the triple-digit level since 2014. And the climb didn't stop there. WTI traded as high as $130.50 last week, with Brent almost reaching $140. The market has been whipsawing between gains and losses in what's been an especially volatile time for oil prices. The surge has sent the national average for a gallon of gas in the U.S. to the highest on record, unadjusted for inflation, which is adding to inflationary fears across the economy. Even with Monday's big decline both Brent and WTI are still up more than 30% for the year.
Oil Prices Fall on Hedge Funds Trimming Bullish Bets - Oil prices soared to stratospheric levels following fears of a potential supply crunch after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Now, prices are coming back down to earth as big players like hedge funds are starting to trim their bets. Hedge funds “slashed net-bullish Brent oil bets to their lowest levels on record,” noted Naeem Aslam, chief market analyst at AvaTrade. “The retreat demonstrates that significant swings in the oil market were part of a broad-based liquidation of positions, with speculators closing out long contracts in WTI, diesel, and gasoline futures.” The global landscape continues to change amid Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Nations are looking to wean themselves off dependency on Russia for oil by looking to alternative sources of energy or working with other countries to shore up supply.Meanwhile, the world will remain fixated on the news coming out of Ukraine. If the two nations can successfully move to negotiation, this could help ease the current oil supply shock.Additionally, COVID cases are surging in China. This is causing supply chain disruptions that could also add to inflation worries.“The downside correction in oil prices is sure a relief when it comes to the inflation expectations, but the new lockdown measures [in China] will continue worsening the supply chain crisis and add on the inflation worries,” said Ipek Ozkardeskaya, senior analyst at Swissquote Bank, in a note to clients.
Oil Drops After OPEC Warns Ukraine Crisis to Hit Oil Demand -- Oil futures nearest delivery declined for a second session on Tuesday, with U.S. and international crude benchmarks having lost more than 10% since the beginning of the week after Ukrainian officials signaled a ceasefire agreement with Russia could be reached as soon as next week amid signs of a stalled military campaign by the Russians, while growing fears over rising inflation, elevated commodity prices and strained supply chains soured sentiment in financial markets. In its Monthly Oil Market Report released Tuesday morning, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) warned the Russo-Ukrainian conflict would likely have a far-reaching effect on global demand growth, although the situation is too fluid to accurately attach numbers that define the expected magnitude of that impact. "Challenges to the global economy -- especially regarding the slowdown of economic growth, rising inflation and the ongoing geopolitical turmoil will impact oil demand in various regions," according to the report. Due to an unclear and rapidly changing situation in Ukraine, OPEC left its global oil demand growth forecast "under assessment" at 4.2 million barrels per day (bpd) for 2022, unchanged from the previous forecast, with the forecast for demand growth for countries that are part of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development at 1.9 million bpd and for non-OECD countries at 2.3 million bpd. On the supply side, OPEC estimates production from the 13-member cartel increased by 440,000 bpd in February to 28.473 million bpd, with 11 of the 13 country members of the cartel having lifted output last month. Despite the large monthly increase in OPEC production, the 10 country members that are part of the OPEC+ agreement underproduced their collective 24.808 million bpd quota by 668,000 bpd in February. In financial markets, the Federal Open Market Committee concludes its two-day policy meeting on Wednesday with consensus calling for the central bank to raise interest rates by 25 basis points. This would mark the first interest rate hike since the beginning of the pandemic. The oil complex came under the pressure on Tuesday after Oleksiy Arestovych, an adviser to Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky, said a peace agreement with Russia could be established within one or two weeks at the earliest and by May the latest. Despite heavy shelling of heavily populated Ukrainian cities, the Russian army was unable to make real progress on the frontlines amid logistical issues, low morale and lack of basic items like food and fuel. There are unconfirmed reports of widespread hunger among the Russian troops. On the session, NYMEX April West Texas Intermediate fell $6.57 to $96.44 bbl, and ICE Brent May contract plunged $6.99 to $99.91 bbl. NYMEX April RBOB futures plummeted 17.08 cents or 6% to $2.9981 gallon, and April ULSD futures slumped 24.66 cents to $3.0297 gallon.
Oil drops again, now more than 25% below recent high - Oil registered heavy losses Tuesday, building on Monday's decline, as myriad factors weighed on sentiment, including talks between Russia and Ukraine, a potential slowdown in Chinese demand and unwinding of trades ahead of the Federal Reserve's expected rate hike on Wednesday. Both West Texas Intermediate crude, the U.S. oil benchmark, and global benchmark Brent crude settled below $100 per barrel Tuesday, a far cry from the more than $130 they fetched just over a week ago. WTI ended the day at $96.44, for a loss of 6.38%. During the session it traded as low as $93.53. Brent settled 6.54% lower at $99.91 per barrel, after trading as low as $97.44. WTI and Brent fell 5.78% and 5.12%, respectively, on Monday. "Growth concerns from the Ukraine-Russia stagflation wave, and FOMC hike this week, and hopes that progress will be made in Ukraine-Russia negotiations" are weighing on prices, said Jeffrey Halley, senior market analyst at Oanda. "It seems like the old adage that the best cure for high prices, is high prices, is as strong as ever," he added, noting that he believes the top is in for oil prices. Crude surged above $100 per barrel for the first time in years the day Russia invaded Ukraine, and prices continued to climb as the conflict intensified. WTI hit a high of $130.50 a barrel early last week, while Brent traded as high as $139.26 per barrel. Prices jumped as traders feared that Russia's energy exports would be disrupted. So far the U.S. and Canada have banned Russian energy imports, while the U.K. has said it will phase out imports from the country. But other nations in Europe, which are dependent on Russia's oil and gas, have not enacted similar moves. "It's really a market that traded entirely on fear," Rebecca Babin, senior energy trader at CIBC Private Wealth U.S., said of the initial spike higher amid supply fears. "Now, without a true change in the facts, we're trading on the hope" that things won't be as bad in the commodity market as initially feared. "We don't have a lot of clarity around what is really going to happen with crude supplies in the future as a result of this conflict," she added.
China's Covid resurgence is part of the reason oil prices plummeted from record highs -- China's recent Covid wave and subsequent lockdowns have helped oil prices ease from record highs reached roughly a week ago, according to analysts. "We have the re-emergence of Covid in China, which is throwing another spanner into the works when we're trying to assess what the demand will be," said Richard Gorry, managing director of JBC Energy Asia. He also said markets are still grappling with the disruption of oil supply caused by the Russia-Ukraine war. Oil prices have been volatile in recent sessions, spiking to record levels not seen since 2008 just a week ago, reaching above $130 per barrel. But crude prices then fell drastically, dropping more than 27% below that recent high to less than $100 a barrel earlier this week. "The OPEC in their monthly reports have not changed their demand forecast, which suggests that it is business as normal," Gorry said. "I would tend to believe that that will probably change in the months ahead, because if we look at China, for example, right now, we have 45 million people under lockdown, like it was in 2020. And we know from history that this does have an impact on oil demand." In the last few days, China has clamped down as it grapples with its worst Covid spike since the pandemic began, ordering lockdowns and a pause in manufacturing in some cities. Manufacturing hub Shenzhen ordered businesses to suspend production, which affected companies like Apple supplier Foxconn. China is the world's biggest oil importer and any reduction in demand would have an impact on energy prices.
IEA sees Russian oil output slumping by a quarter next month — Russia’s oil output may slump by about a quarter next month, inflicting the biggest supply shock in decades as buyers shun the nation’s exports following its invasion of Ukraine, the International Energy Agency said. “The implications of a potential loss of Russian oil exports to global markets cannot be understated,” the Paris-based agency said in its monthly report on Wednesday. “While it is still too early to know how events will unfold, the crisis may result in lasting changes to energy markets.” Sanctions on trade with Moscow and widespread condemnation of its aggression have rendered Russian oil almost untouchable to traders, with companies from TotalEnergies SE to Shell Plc pledging to curtail purchases. International crude prices rocketed to a 13-year high near $140 a barrel last week, though have since pulled back sharply. Russian oil production could plunge by 3 million barrels a day to 8.6 million a day from next month, further squeezing a world market already strained by the post-pandemic rebound in demand, said the agency, which advises most major economies. World markets now face a shortfall in the next two quarters instead of previously anticipated surpluses, the IEA said. That will force developed nations to further deplete oil inventories that are already at their lowest since 2014. With Russia’s fellow exporters in the OPEC+ coalition so far refusing to fill the gap, the IEA repeated that its members -- which include the U.S. and Japan -- are willing to release more from emergency oil stockpiles. Nations announced the deployment of 60 million barrels at the start of the month. OPEC+ leader Saudi Arabia has rebuffed pressure from Washington to open the taps faster, partly to preserve its political ties to Moscow and partly from a belief that markets remain adequately supplied for the time being. U.K. Prime Minister Boris Johnson is visiting Riyadh and Abu Dhabi in a bid to change their mind.
Oil market heads for 'biggest supply crisis in decades' with Russia's exports set to fall, IEA says - Three million barrels per day of Russian oil output is at risk beginning in April as sanctions hit and buyers shun the nation's exports, the International Energy Agency said Wednesday. "The prospect of large-scale disruptions to Russian oil production is threatening to create a global oil supply shock," the Paris-based firm said in its monthly oil report, adding that this could ultimately be the "biggest supply crisis in decades." "The implications of a potential loss of Russian oil exports to global markets cannot be understated," the IEA added. Russia is the third-largest oil producer behind the United States and Saudi Arabia. But Russia is the largest oil and products exporter in the world, and Europe depends on the nation for supplies. In January 2022, total Russia oil and products production stood at 11.3 million barrels per day, or bpd, of which around 8 million bpd is exported. Looking forward, the IEA said 2.5 million bpd of exports are at risk. Of that, 1.5 million bpd is crude, with products making up the other 1 million bpd. "These losses could deepen should bans or public censure accelerate," the firm added. There's also the possibility that peace is struck, curbing additional disruptions in the oil market. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said Tuesday that an agreement was beginning to "sound more realistic." Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov meantime told the BBC there was "some hope of reaching a compromise." It's unclear how sanctions would be unwound should an agreement be reached. So far the sanctions levied against Russia have targeted financial institutions and wealthy individuals. The U.S. and Canada have banned oil imports, while the U.K. has said it will phase out purchases. But other European nations have not followed suit, given their dependence on Russia for energy. For the time being, energy supplies continue to exchange hands due in part to deals that were struck before Russia launched an invasion in Ukraine. But the IEA said that major oil companies, trading houses, shipping firms and banks are backing away from doing business with Russia for reputational reasons and because of a lack of clarity around possible future sanctions. "New business has all but dried up," the firm said. Russia's invasion of Ukraine has sent oil prices into a tailspin, as worries over supply disruptions in an already tight market took hold. Crude surged above $100 for the first time since 2014 in late February the day Russia invaded Ukraine. Prices kept climbing from there. West Texas Intermediate crude, the U.S. oil benchmark, traded as high as $130.50 last week, with Brent crude reaching almost $140. But the blistering rally on the way up has been matched by a steep decline since. On Tuesday WTI traded at $96.62 per barrel, while Brent stood at $99.97.
Oil dips on Russia-Ukraine talks, U.S. inventory data - Oil fell on Wednesday in another volatile session as traders reacted to hoped-for progress in Russia-Ukraine peace talks and a surprising increase in U.S. inventories. Around noon in New York, global benchmark Brent was slightly lower and U.S. crude was slightly higher. The oil market has been on a roller-coaster for more than two weeks, trading in wide ranges of several dollars a day. On Wednesday, global benchmark Brent crude had swung between $97.55 and $103.70 and was down 2.35% to $97.56 per barrel at 2:40 p.m. on Wall Street. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude shed 1.45% to settle at $95.04 per barrel. Last week's frenzied rally pushed Brent briefly past $139 a barrel on worries about extended disruption to Russian supply. Now, a cascade of selling has pushed prices much lower, but some analysts have warned that this reflects too much optimism that the war will end soon. "We're living headline to headline here," The United States and other nations have slapped heavy sanctions on Russia since it invaded Ukraine more than two weeks ago. This disrupted Russia's oil trade of more than 4 to 5 million barrels of crude daily. Brent staged a 28% rally in six days and then a 24% drop over the next six sessions counting Wednesday. A number of factors drove the turnaround, including modest hopes of a Russia-Ukraine peace agreement and faint signals of progress between the United States and Iran to resurrect a 2015 deal that would allow the Islamic Republic to export oil if it agrees to limit its nuclear ambitions. In addition, Chinese demand is expected to slow due to a surge in coronavirus cases there, although figures showed fewer new cases and Chinese stimulus hopes boosted equities. Three million barrels per day of Russian oil and products may not find their way to market beginning in April, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said, as sanctions bite and buyers hold off. "These losses could deepen should bans or public censure accelerate," the Paris-based IEA said in a report that also showed a cut in its oil demand forecast for 2022. U.S. inventories rose by 4.3 million barrels, against expectations for a loss, while stocks at the Cushing, Oklahoma, hub rose as well, alleviating a bit of concern about the low level of inventories there. Crude settled below $100 on Tuesday, the first time since late February. Prices hit a 14-year high on March 7. Signs of progress in Russia-Ukraine peace talks added to the bearish tone. Ukraine's president said the positions of Ukraine and Russia were sounding more realistic, but time was needed. Russia's foreign minister said some deals with Ukraine were close to being agreed. "Fears of a supply disruption have been tempered by tentative signs of progress in ceasefire talks between Russia and Ukraine," "That said, an end to hostilities still seems like a long way off."
WTI Slides Third Session After Fed Hikes Rates, Stock Build - Oil futures nearest delivery accelerated losses in afternoon trade Wednesday after the Federal Open Market Committee raised the federal funds rate 25 basis points and signaled additional rate hikes at each of the six remaining meetings this year, a policy shift aimed at tackling the fastest growth in inflation in four decades. At the conclusion of their two-day policy meeting Wednesday afternoon, the FOMC announced the first increase in the federal funds rate since 2018 and following two years of holding the key benchmark rate near zero to insulate the economy from the pandemic. "The American economy is very strong and well positioned to handle tighter monetary policy," said Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell during a news conference following the FOMC meeting. "We are attentive to the risks of further upward pressure on inflation and inflation expectations." Powell added central bank officials could speed the monetary tightening policy if needed. The Fed also released their first of four economic projections in 2022, with its median forecast for economic growth in 2022 revised down from 4% expected in December to a 2.8% growth rate in real gross domestic product. The first rate hike in four years was well telegraphed, with some analysts and monetary policy watchers believing the Fed took too long to take action to combat inflation. Nonetheless, the rate hike comes amid a horrific war in Eastern Europe that has disrupted trade in oil and commodities out of Russia -- a country with a vast geography and abundance of natural resources. International Energy Agency said Wednesday the prospect of a large-scale disruption to Russian oil production threatens to create a global supply shock in the short-term. The Paris-based energy watchdog estimates that beginning in April, Russian oil production would fall by 3 million barrels per day (bpd), with the Energy Information Administration pegging the decline in April at a more conservative 750,000 bpd. Such a large loss in oil output comes amid an already tight global oil market with limited spare capacity largely held by Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. The steep drop in Russian oil production could be offset by slower demand growth in the second half of the year but only partially, according to IEA. […] The outlooks were followed by weekly stock data from the EIA showing U.S. commercial crude stockpiles increased by 4.3 million bbl to 415.9 million bbl during the week ended March 12 and are now about 12% below the five-year average. EIA also reported a 3.6 million bbl draw in gasoline stocks for last week to 241 million bbl, with gasoline supplied to market slipping but at the second highest weekly rate in 2022 at 8.944 million bpd. Distillate stocks increased 332,000 bbl to 114.2 million bbl, now about 16% below the five-year average, building as implied demand dropped by a steep 883,000 bpd from the prior week to 3.704 million bpd. NYMEX April West Texas Intermediate futures settled at a $95.04 bbl, down $1.40, and the lowest close since late February. ICE May Brent futures settled below $100 for a second session, down $1.89 at $98.02 bbl. NYMEX April RBOB futures settled 1.06 cents lower at $2.9875 gallon after a choppy session, while April ULSD futures bucked the trend, settling 7.04 cents higher at $3.1001 gallon.
Oil Rallies as Ukrainian Peace Talks Stall -- Oil futures nearest delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange and Brent crude traded on the Intercontinental Exchange rallied in early trade Thursday, with West Texas Intermediate climbing above $100 bbl as investors assessed progress in Ukrainian-Russian peace talks and the financial implications from the first interest rate hike in the United States since the beginning of the pandemic as U.S. Federal Reserve moves to tackle the fastest inflation growth in four decades. Underlining the rally in oil complex is ongoing concerns over the effect of international sanctions on Russian crude production and its ability to sell oil on the global market. International Energy Agency said on Wednesday that Russia's output is likely to fall by 30% or 3 million bpd in April as spot Russian cargoes are shunned by buyers in Europe and the United States. Reports indicate Moscow is looking to boost its oil exports to India and China after a dramatic decline in interest for its oil among Western consumers, but its unclear whether Asian demand for Russian crude could compensate for the lack of buying interest from the West. Russia is the world's largest oil exporter, shipping an average 8 million bpd of crude and refined oil products to customers across the globe. "The prospect of large-scale disruptions to Russian oil production is threatening to create a global oil supply shock. Only Saudi Arabia and the UAE hold substantial spare capacity that could immediately help to offset a Russian shortfall," said IEA in its monthly Oil Market Report. Against the backdrop of these dire forecasts, peace talks between Russian and Ukrainian delegations seemed to have hit a wall after Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said that Russia must recognize Ukraine's borders as of 1991, meaning that Crimean Peninsula and eastern regions of Lugansk and Donbass would remain within Ukraine. Prospects of a ceasefire agreement seemed realistic this week as Russian offensive stalled and Kremlin softened its position over regime change in Ukraine. Domestically, the Federal Open Market Committee unveiled its first rate hike since 2018 Wednesday, citing progress in the economy and labor market, adding that the economy was strong enough to withstand another six more rate hikes as it vowed to tame the hottest domestic inflation in more than four decades. The Fed's so-called 'dot plots,' a term used to describe the interest rate projections of the Fed's Open Markets Committee, suggest a Federal Funds rate of around 1.9% by the of this year, implying consecutive rate hikes until December, and 2.8% in 2023 and 2024, even as they expect inflation to moderate heading into the start of next year. Near 7:45 AM ET, NYMEX April WTI futures jumped above $100 bbl, up more than $5 bbl, and ICE May Brent futures gained $5.41 to $103.41 bbl. NYMEX April RBOB futures advanced 12.95 to $3.1160 gallon, while April ULSD futures rallied 29.58cts to $3.3966 gallon.
Oil Spikes 8% as USD Hits 5-Week Low, Ceasefire Talks Stall -- Oil futures nearest delivery spiked more than 8% Thursday, climbing on reports suggesting a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine is a long way off despite a stalled offensive by Russian forces. Also, upbeat economic data in the United States revealed the labor market and industrial production continues to recover from the pandemic disruption, notwithstanding supply constraints and higher costs. Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta revised higher its outlook for gross domestic product growth in the first quarter to 1.3% Thursday from 1.2% seen on Wednesday (3/16). Earlier this year, Atlanta GDP Nowcast was calling for a 0.5% growth. The update followed this morning's data from the Federal Reserve showing industrial production in the United States continued to expand in February while the Labor Department reported a decline in first-time unemployment claims to a 2 1/2-month low as new hiring picks up. In total, 1.419 million Americans were collecting jobless benefits during the week ended March 5 -- a 50-year low, while down 71,000 from the previous week. Meanwhile, production at U.S. factories rose in February by the most in four months, Fed data showed, increasing 1.2% month-on-month from 0.2% seen at the start of the year. Total industrial production, which also includes mining and utility output, rose 0.5% last month. On Wednesday, the Fed said the economy is strong enough to withstand a steady pace of rate increases in coming months after the central bank introduced the first interest rate hike since the beginning of the pandemic. The Fed also released their first of four economic projections in 2022, with its median forecast for economic growth in 2022 revised down from 4% expected in December to a 2.8% growth rate in real gross domestic product. In the aftermath of the pivotal but widely expected move by the central bank, the U.S. Dollar Index fell to a five-week low 97.970, down 0.66% against the basket of foreign currencies. Stocks on Wall Street again advanced Thursday, sending Dow Jones Industrials 270 points higher and S&P 500 Index up 0.69%. NYMEX April West Texas Intermediate futures spiked $7.94 to settle a tad below $103 barrel (bbl), and ICE May Brent futures advanced $8.62 to $106.64 bbl. NYMEX April RBOB futures rallied 22.91 cents to $3.2166 gallon, while April ULSD futures surged 38.73 cents to $3.4874 gallon. Investors continue to monitor ongoing ceasefire talks between Ukrainian and Russian peace delegations that have been locked in tense negotiations since late February. The lack of progress in the negotiations comes as the Russian offensive largely stalled on nearly all fronts, with reports indicating heavy losses among the Russian troops and civilian population. British Intelligence said on Thursday that Russian President Vladimir Putin's troops "have made minimal progress on land, sea or air in recent days."
Crudes Gain as Ukraine War Outweighs Demand Fears in China -- Oil futures nearest delivery moved mixed in early trade Friday, with the U.S. crude benchmark holding above $103 bbl as traders assess the impact of escalating fighting in Ukraine on global oil and commodity trade bruised by international sanctions levied on Moscow for its invasion of the former Soviet state against demand destruction in China besieged by resurgent COVID-19 infections. China is now facing the biggest wave of COVID-19 infections since Wuhan became the original center of the coronavirus pandemic in early 2020. New COVID-19 infections in China jumped to 2,958 cases on Thursday, a sharp increase from 337 cases reported just ten days ago. To combat the spread, health authorities there once again resorted to stringent lockdowns, mass testing, and business shutdowns across several metropolitan areas. The cities impacted by the latest outbreak represent 25% of nationwide gross domestic product, according to a Goldman Sachs analysis, leading to a reduction in oil consumption of about 1.15 million bpd for the next three months. On the flip side, this development is likely to provide some relief to a tight global oil market, with weaker Chinese demand realized just as the global market is contending with a falloff in Russian oil exports. There is a wide range of projections on the degree and extent that Russian oil exports could be impaired by Western sanctions, and through the extension of lost exports, the damaging effect on upstream production. International Energy Agency this week made the most aggressive call yet on the likely falloff in Russian oil output, forecasting a 30% or 3 million bpd decline beginning in April. Independent analysis suggests the actual decline could be close to 50% over the course of five years, hammered by an absence of equipment for development of unconventional and offshore oil reserves and lack of technological capacities to intensify production at active fields. Existing conventional oil fields use enhanced oil recovery methods, such as hydraulic fracturing to increase oil recovery, with hydraulic fracturing equipment critical for maintaining Russian oil production. Russia's current output stands at 11.45 million bpd, according to this week's Monthly Oil Market Report from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries. Although difficult to pin down, some traders estimate around 2.5 million bpd in Russian crude oil cargos are stranded at sea unable to find buyers. Goldman Sachs estimates that export disruption might be smaller-than-expected as time goes by. Goldman reckons some cargos are still changing hands under-the-radar, noting that many vessels are disabling satellite trackers. Furthermore, flows of oil via long-term contracts, which could represent half of Russian seaborne exports, are less likely to be disrupted, added the wall street investment bank. Russia is the world's largest oil exporter, shipping 8 million bpd of crude and refined oil products to customers across the globe. In early trading, NYMEX April West Texas Intermediate futures advanced $0.57 to trade near $103.56 bbl, and ICE May Brent futures gained $0.45 to $107.12 bbl. NYMEX April RBOB futures slipped 0.50cts to $3.2116 gallon, while April ULSD futures gained 3.38cts to $3.5212 gallon.
Oil Rebounded to End Week as Ukraine Peace Hopes Faded - Oil posted its first back-to-back weekly decline since December as intense volatility and geopolitical risks continued to upend markets. Futures in New York fell 4.2% for the five-day period to settle at $104.70 after swinging by more than $16 a barrel throughout the week. The price gyrations have followed rapid developments surrounding the war in Ukraine, exacerbating volatility amid supply concerns and conflicting news in peace talks that sent oil surging by the most in 16 months Thursday. The IEA said Friday that oil markets are in an “emergency situation” that could get worse, days after stating that the potential loss of Russian oil exports “cannot be understated” in their monthly report. Fundamentally, oil markets remain tight but “until we get some resolution on what Russia’s ultimate goal here is, you’re going to have a lot of sentiment and a lot of volatility in oil prices,”. There is at least $20 of geopolitical premium currently priced in, he added. A renewed Covid-19 outbreak in China has compounded the moves, as the country imposes some of its heaviest virus-related restrictions since early 2020. President Xi Jinping pledged to reduce the economic impact of his Covid-fighting measures, signaling a shift in a longstanding strategy that has minimized fatalities, but weighed heavily on the world’s second-largest economy. The rise in oil prices, along with other commodities exported by Russia, has also fanned inflation fears as governments try to encourage growth after the pandemic. The Federal Reserve this week raised interest rates and signaled further hikes to tackle the fastest price gains in four decades. The IEA said earlier this week Russia’s oil output could slump by about a quarter next month, inflicting the biggest supply shock in decades as buyers shun the nation’s exports. On Friday, the agency said advanced economies could curb their oil demand by reducing speed limits and using public transport to ease potential strains on the market. WTI for April delivery rose $1.72 to settle at $104.70 a barrel in New York. Brent for May settlement increased $1.29 to settle at $107.93 a barrel. Russian crude is still being treated with extreme caution by buyers worried about damage to their reputation or falling foul of sanctions. Since the invasion of Ukraine, the lion’s share of oil refining companies across Europe have said they will scale back purchases from Moscow. One of the most volatile corners of the oil market has been diesel, partly because Russia is a major exporter to the rest of Europe. Open interest -- the number of contracts outstanding in Europe’s main diesel contract -- has fallen by more than half from its high last year, as traders take fright at the volatility.
Saudi oil refinery attacked by drone, sparking small fire - An oil refinery in Saudi Arabia's capital, Riyadh, was attacked by drone, causing a small fire that did not cause injuries or affect supplies, the energy ministry said Friday. The statement did not specify where the drone strike was launched from. There was no immediate claim of responsibility. The kingdom's oil facilities have been a target of Yemen's Houthi rebels in the past. The Iranian-backed Houthis claimed responsibility for a shocking attack in 2019 at the Abqaiq oil processing facility in Eastern Province, which temporarily knocked out half the kingdom's daily production. The ministry statement, published by the state-run Saudi Press Agency, was released shortly after midnight Friday and said the attack took place around 4:40 am on Thursday. The ministry said such attacks not only target Saudi Arabia, but also the security and stability of energy supply to the world. Saudi Arabia has been involved in Yemen's civil war since 2015, fighting against the Houthis who overran the capital of Sanaa and ousted the government there from power. Despite seven years of fighting and war, the Houthis remain in control of Sanaa and much of northern Yemen. The war in Yemen has killed tens of thousands of people, both fighters and civilians, and spawned the world's worst humanitarian crisis. Many more have been internally displaced. Around 13 million Yemenis are headed for starvation due to a protracted civil conflict and a lack of funding for humanitarian aid, the UN food agency has warned.
Missile strikes from east hit Erbil in Iraqi Kurdistan -A dozen ballistic missiles were fired into the capital of Iraq's northern Kurdish region Erbil in the early hours of today, according to Kurdish and Iraqi officials. The missiles "were launched from across Iraq's eastern border" and "targeted areas around the new US consulate compound" in Erbil, said Lawk Ghafuri, the head of Kurdistan's foreign media office after the incident. "The attack did not result in human casualties, only material damages," he said. Ghafuri added that "none of the missiles" actually hit the US consulate, which is currently under construction, but "areas around the compound" were. The strikes "resulted in the injury of two people," Erbil's governor Omid Khoshnow said. Masrour Barzani, the prime minister of the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) "strongly" condemned what he labelled a "terrorist attack," but stopped short of assigning blame. His counterpart in Baghdad, Mustafa Kadhimi, said the security forces of the federal Iraqi government are helping to investigate who was behind the attack. But numerous mentions by Kurdish officials of the attack originating from the east suggests a belief that the missiles may have been launched from Iran — the source of several similar attacks on northern Iraq in recent years One of the more notable recent ballistic strikes came on two bases that house US troops — one in Erbil, the other in western Iraq — in early January 2020 in retaliation for the targeted killing by the US of senior Iranian military commander Qassem Soleimani on 2 January. Hiwa Afandi, a deputy minister in the Kurdistan Regional Government, said today that Erbil International Airport, where US military forces are currently stationed, had not been a target in this latest strike. Tehran has yet to issue any official comment on today's attacks. But Iranian state media has been reporting that several of the locations targeted in the attack were bases that were "unofficially run by Israel."
U.S. Looks Into Iraq Attack After Iran Says Israel Killed Colonels in Syria _ The U.S. military is tracking reports of a missile attack near Washington's consulate in the northern Iraqi city of Erbil days after two Iranian colonels were reportedly killed during an airstrike in Syria that was blamed on Israel.A Pentagon spokesperson told Newsweek that the Defense Department was "looking into the reported attack near Erbil," but did not provide any details. A spokesperson for Iran's permanent mission to the United Nations told Newsweekthere was no information so far on the event.The semi-autonomous Kurdistan Regional Government's Directorate General of Counter Terrorism reported that 12 ballistic missiles targeted near the U.S. consulate in Erbil and were launched outside of Iraq's borders to the east, where Iran is located. News and purported footage of the strike were shared widely on social media on Saturday afternoon, early Sunday local time. Rocket attacks have targeted U.S. positions in Iraq for years and have sometimes drawn U.S. strikes against pro-Iran militia positions, most recently ordered by President Joe Biden last June. But Iran has not directly fired missiles on U.S. positions since January 2020, days after former President Donald Trump ordered the killing of Iranian Revolutionary Guard Quds Force Major General Qassem Soleimani at Baghdad International Airport in Iraq. The Revolutionary Guard also vowed to take revenge Wednesday after it said two of its colonels were killed in an Israeli airstrike near Damascus, where they were said to be supporting the Syrian government's "counterterrorism efforts."
Iran’s attack on Irbil confirms widening of US/Russia conflict to the Middle East -- As the war between Russia and Ukraine spirals out of control, with a Russian missile strike on a military training base just 15 miles from the Polish border with Poland, a NATO ally, geo-political fault lines in the Middle East threaten to open another front and destabilise the entire region. On Sunday morning, Iran launched a dozen ballistic missiles that landed near the new US consulate compound eight miles north of the northern Iraqi city of Irbil, capital of the semi-autonomous Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG). The attack resulted in minor damage to the nearby satellite broadcasting channel Kurdistan24 but no casualties, although an Iranian official claimed that two Israeli officials had been killed. Israel has refused to comment on the attack. Iran’s attack on Irbil marks a significant escalation in the ongoing tensions between Tehran and Israel, and by extension the US. It follows years of covert warfare between the two countries both in Iran, where Israel has carried out assassinations, blown up installations, launched cyber-attacks on vital Iranian computer systems, including nuclear facilities, and attacked sea-going vessels, and in Syria, where Israel has attacked Lebanese Shia Hezbollah fighters, their weapons dumps and Iranian-linked facilities. It was initially thought that the target in Irbil was the American compound, where US forces provide air and other military and intelligence support for its puppet regime in Baghdad. Once complete, the compound will be one of the largest US diplomatic compounds in the world. The relocation to the KRG follows Iraqi Prime Minister Mustafa al-Kadhimi’s demand that they leave the al-Asad airbase and other bases where US troops were stationed. He demanded this in the aftermath of the US assassination of Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) commander General Qassem Suleimani in January 2020 that led to several attacks on US forces and facilities in Iraq. However, Washington has insisted the missiles were not aimed at its compound. Tehran said the attack was in retaliation for an Israeli strike on an Iranian base near the Syrian capital of Damascus. That attack on March 7 killed four people, including two members of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), who play a key role in supporting the Lebanese Shia Hezbollah fighters with military expertise and supplies. The Revolutionary Guards pledged to “make the Zionist regime pay for this crime.” The IRGC said the attack was a warning to the US and Israel and was aimed at “the strategic center of the Zionist conspiracies in Erbil.” A foreign ministry spokesperson said Iran had warned the Iraqi authorities on numerous occasions that its territory should not be used by third parties to conduct attacks against Iran.
India eyeing discounted Russian oil: reports -India is considering a Russian offer to buy crude oil and other commodities at discount prices a week after the U.S. banned all Russian energy imports, Reuters reported on Monday. India, the world's third-largest oil consumer and importer and one of the few countries not to condemn Moscow's invasion of Ukraine, currently imports 80 percent of its oil, but only about 2 percent to 3 percent of those purchases come from Russia. "Russia is offering oil and other commodities at a heavy discount. We will be happy to take that," an Indian government official told Reuters. According to Bloomberg, India is looking to bypass Western-imposed sanctions that would allow it to purchase cheaper oil from Russia. Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak told Indian Petroleum Minister Hardeep Puri in a phone call on Friday that the country is keen to increase its oil and petroleum product exports to India along with Indian investments in the Russian oil sector, according to a statement issued by Moscow. Puri and Novak also discussed strengthening the India-Russia strategic partnership in the energy sector. "Russia’s oil and petroleum product exports to India have approached $1 billion, and there are clear opportunities to increase this figure,” a statement from Moscow said about the telephone call. They also discussed "current and potential joint projects in the fuel and energy industry and noted that current projects continue to be steadily implemented."
Russia counts on sanctions help from China as US warns Beijing - - Russia has said it is banking on China’s help to withstand the crippling economic sanctions placed by Western nations over the war in Ukraine as the United States warned Beijing not to provide that lifeline.Russian Finance Minister Anton Siluanov said sanctions had deprived Moscow of access to $300bn of its $640bn in gold and foreign exchange reserves, and added that there was pressure on Beijing to shut off more.“We have part of our gold and foreign exchange reserves in the Chinese currency, in yuan. And we see what pressure is being exerted by Western countries on China in order to limit mutual trade with China. Of course, there is pressure to limit access to those reserves,” he said on Sunday. “But I think that our partnership with China will still allow us to maintain the cooperation that we have achieved, and not only maintain, but also increase it in an environment where Western markets are closing.”Western countries have imposed unprecedented sanctions on Russia’s corporate and financial system since it invaded Ukraine on February 24 in what it calls a special military operation. Siluanov’s comments in a TV interview marked the clearest statement yet from Moscow that it will seek help from China to cushion the effect.But US NSA Jake Sullivan said Washington has warned China not to provide it.“We are communicating directly, privately to Beijing, that there will absolutely be consequences for large-scale sanctions, evasion efforts or support to Russia to backfill them,” Sullivan told CNN.“We will not allow that to go forward and allow there to be a lifeline to Russia from these economic sanctions from any country, anywhere in the world,” added Sullivan, who is due to meet China’s top diplomat Yang Jiechi in Rome on Monday.
Saudi Arabia Considers Accepting Yuan Instead of Dollars for Chinese Oil Sales - Saudi Arabia is in active talks with Beijing to price some of its oil sales to China in yuan, people familiar with the matter said, a move that would dent the U.S. dollar’s dominance of the global petroleum market and mark another shift by the world’s top crude exporter toward Asia. The talks with China over yuan-priced oil contracts have been off and on for six years but have accelerated this year as the Saudis have grown increasingly unhappy with decades-old U.S. security commitments to defend the kingdom, the people said.
Woman interrupts Russian TV news broadcast to protest war -A woman burst onto the set of Russian state TV’s flagship evening news program Monday, chanting “stop the war” and denouncing government “propaganda” — a striking moment of public protest as the Kremlin cracks down on any criticism of its invasion in Ukraine. OVD-Info, a human rights group that tracks protest activity and detentions in Russia, identified the woman as Marina Ovsyannikova, an editor and producer with the broadcaster, and said she has been detained. Before storming the set of Channel One, Ovsyannikova recorded a video message in which she said, “What is going on in Ukraine is a crime.” “Unfortunately, I have been working at Channel One during recent years, working on Kremlin propaganda,” Ovsyannikova said. “And now I am very ashamed. I am ashamed that I’ve allowed the lies to be said on the TV screens. I am ashamed that I let the Russian people be zombified.” AdvertisementShe ended with a call to action, alluding to the high price of dissent in Russia: “It is only in our power to stop this madness. Take to the streets. Do not be afraid. They can’t jail us all.” The protest was hailed around the world as a dangerous act of resistance, as Russia deepens its repression of government critics and falsely portrays its invasion as a limited operation meant to “denazify” a neighbor. The Kremlin has blocked sources of independent information on the fighting in Ukraine and threatened 15 years in prison for anyone who spreads “fake news” contradicting Russia’s official narrative on the war. Thousands of people protesting the violence have been arrested in Russia, according to OVD-Info, which says the invasion and its fallout have “irrevocably changed” Russian society.
Elon Musk challenges Putin on Twitter to 'single combat' for Ukraine - Tesla CEO Elon Musk challenged Russian President Vladimir Putin to “single combat” for Ukraine amid Russia's ongoing invasion of the country. Musk proposed the challenge in a short Twitter thread on Monday, writing both Putin’s name and the name of the country in Russian. “I hereby challenge [Putin] to single combat,” Musk said in his tweet. “Stakes are [Ukraine].” Musk also tagged the Kremlin’s official account in a follow-up tweet to his initial offer. "Do you agree to this fight?" Musk asked the Kremlin. Musk has recently expressed his opinion on the ongoing Russian invasion of Ukraine, sharing a video of him speaking with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky on March 5, according to Bloomberg News. “Hold Strong Ukraine,” Musk tweeted earlier this month, adding, “And also my sympathies to the great people of Russia, who do not want this.”
Putin's Options - There’s no doubt that the financial sanctions put on Russia by the U.S., the U.K., EU members and others are the most severe ever imposed. The U.S. Treasury has announced 15 separate sanctions programs in recent days and no doubt more are on the way.The targets of these sanctions include Russian banks, Russian stocks and bonds and various payment channels. Most significantly, the U.S. froze the accounts of the Central Bank of Russia. That’s the first time a major central bank’s assets have been frozen since the Cold War, and possibly ever.The financial impact on Russia will be extreme. The Russian economy may be expected to collapse by 20% or more in the first half of 2022, an amount comparable to the economic collapses in the second quarter of 2020 during the first lockdown stage of the pandemic.But Russia has not stood still. The Central Bank of Russia imposed capital controls so that Russian companies cannot pay interest or principal on international debts. That means those loans and bonds may soon go into default.Many such securities may be stuffed into 401(k) plans of Americans under the umbrella of “emerging markets” funds or ETFs. Even more important is the possibility that interbank lending may start to dry up as Russian banks are frozen and Western banks reduce leverage and shrink balance sheets in order to reduce risk.This will lead to defaults in the West and could even mark the beginning of a global liquidity crisis that can only be contained by Federal Reserve currency swap lines, like we saw in the early stages of the pandemic when markets were collapsing.But even that technique may not work since there are no swap arrangements in place between the Fed and the Central Bank of Russia. The shooting war may or may not be over soon, but the financial war has just started and will continue after the shooting stops.For that matter, a global financial panic may emerge even before the shooting stops. We all see what’s happening on the surface. Here’s what you don’t see: Someone is on the wrong side of every one of those trades. Hedge funds and banks are losing billions and are sinking. It takes about a week for bodies to float to the surface.And foreign investors who try to sell Russian companies will find that their sales are blocked. Russia imposed capital controls so that Russian borrowers cannot pay their creditors in dollars or euros. So yes, sanctions will hurt Russia. But like a boomerang, those same sanctions can hurt the U.S. economy, which is on shaky ground as it is. It’s almost like cutting off your nose to spite your face.
Russia widens war shelling a military base in western Ukraine near the Polish border with a salvo of 30 missiles, many killed, official says -Russian forces launched a deadly attack on a military base in western Ukraine on Sunday, according to Ukrainian authorities. Russia fired more than 30 rockets at the International Peacekeeping and Security Center (IPSC), also called the Yavoriv Military Range, Lviv regional governor Maksym Kozytsky said. It is located in Yavoriv, in the Lviv region, about 15 miles from Poland — a NATO and European Union member nation. Houses on the Polish side of the border shook when the salvo hit, according to reports. At least 35 people were killed according to the regional governor, per the Spectator Index. Seven ambulances were seen driving towards the facility, according to Reuters, and a further 19 ambulances were seen driving away from the base. The IPSC is a large military base where international military exercises are held. According to the US Army, the Yavoriv Combat Training Center was modeled after NATO standard combat training centers. The New York Times reported foreign troops, including Americans, had participated in training at the base as recently as February. Ukraine's defense minister Oleksii Reznikov described the targeting of the base as a "terrorist attack."
Belarus denies plans to join Russian invasion but is 'rotating' troops at border -Belarus has no plans to join the Russian invasion of Ukraine but is sending five battalion tactical groups (BTGs) to its border on rotation to replace forces already stationed there, its Chief of General Staff Viktor Gulevich said on Saturday.A top Ukrainian security official on Friday warned Belarus not to send troops to Ukraine, saying Ukraine was showing restraint towards Belarus despite the country being used as a launchpad for Russian planes.“I want to underline that the transfer of troops is in no way connected with (any) preparation, and especially not with the participation of Belarusian soldiers in the special military operation on the territory of Ukraine,” Gulevich said.
ICRC warns Ukraine’s Mariupol faces ‘worst-case scenario’ - More than 2,000 people have died in the city of Mariupol since Russia launched its war in Ukraine, the city council has said, as the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) warned that residents of the besieged port city face a “a worst-case scenario” unless the warring parties reach an agreement to ensure their immediate safety and access to humanitarian aid.“To date, 2,187 Mariupol residents have died from attacks by Russia,” the Mariupol local council said on its official Telegram account on Sunday. Since the war in Ukraine began on February 24, it added, Russian forces have dropped about 100 bombs on the city, including 22 in the previous 24 hours. Ukrainian authorities say the city has been subject to relentless bombardment since Russian troops surrounded it on March 2. Since then, the roughly 400,000 people who remain in Mariupol have been left with no access to water, food and medicine. Heat, phone services – and electricity in many areas – have been cut.“The situation is catastrophic; it has been catastrophic for days,” the ICRC’s Jason Straziuso told Al Jazeera. “Even our team is collecting water from streams … but how does everyone do that … especially if you are elderly?” he asked. Straziuso said that his team members were eating one meal per day. In a statement later on Sunday, the ICRC warned that time was “running out” for those trapped in the city.“History will look back at what is now happening in Mariupol with horror if no agreement is reached by the sides as quickly as possible.”ICRC president Peter Maurer called on all parties involved in the fighting to “place humanitarian imperatives first”.The ICRC said “a concrete, precise, actionable agreement” was needed without delay so civilians wanting to leave can reach safety, and life-saving aid can reach those who stay. Moscow has repeatedly justified its offensive in Ukraine, saying that it was conducting a “special military operation” attacking military targets. Last week though, Kyiv accused Russia of bombing a children’s hospital and a maternity ward and killing three people, while Mariupol’s local authorities on Thursday reported that city’s residential areas had been shelled “every 30 minutes”.
Russia is stockpiling corpses of Ukrainian soldiers to use in a 'false flag' attack on Chernobyl, Ukraine officials allege -- Russia is "stockpiling" the corpses of Ukrainian soldiers to use in a "false flag" attack at Chernobyl, Ukraine's Ministry of Defense claimed.Russian President Vladimir Putin is preparing a "terrorist attack" at the nuclear power station and plans to blame Ukraine, the Main Intelligence Directorate of Ukraine's Ministry of Defense alleged in aFacebook post.Ukrainian officials claimed that Russian car refrigerators were seen around Antonov airport in Gostomel collecting the corpses of dead Ukrainian soldiers.They warned that Russia was planning a "man-made catastrophe" at the power plant and could present the dead Ukrainian soldiers as "killed saboteurs." Following its invasion of Ukraine, Russian forces seized control of the Chernobyl power plant and 20-mile exclusion zone.It continues to be operated by Ukrainian workers, with reports thatmore than 100 workers are stuck living on-site. The International Atomic Energy Agency said on Wednesday that it unexpectedly lost remote contact with safeguarding systems at the power plant a day after Russia damaged a power line. Prolonged loss of power in Chernobyl could cause uncontained radioactive leakage from the plant, officials have warned. Ukrainian officials claimed that Russian occupiers have refused to let the facility's repairmen and engineers back on site and warned that there is only 48 hours' worth of diesel left to power the emergency generators.The officials alleged that Russia has instead sent "Belarusian specialists" in and that Russians preparing for a terrorist attack are working undercover at the site.The ministry did not present evidence for these claims.
Thousands of Mariupol residents forcibly taken to Russia, city council says -The city council of Mariupol, Ukraine, said on Saturday that thousands of the city's residents had been forcibly taken into Russia, with the mayor likening their removal to actions performed by the Nazis during World War II, CNN reported.Mariupol, which sits in the southeastern region of Ukraine, has been the site of constant attacks by Russian forces, who city officials say killed several thousand residents in one day alone last week. The city has seen a mosque, a children’s hospital and a theater bombed, among other buildings."Over the past week, several thousand Mariupol residents have been taken to Russian territory," the city council said in a statement, according to CNN. "The occupiers illegally took people from the Livoberezhny district and from the shelter in the sports club building, where more than a thousand people (mostly women and children) were hiding from the constant bombing." The phones and documents of Mariupol residents were later checked at camps that the Ukrainians were taken to, before some were redirected to remote Russian cities, CNN reported. The city council noted that it could not account for the whereabouts of all residents.
Ukraine Mounts Counteroffensive to Drive Russians Back From Kyiv, Key Cities - WSJ —Ukraine said its military had launched a counteroffensive in its capital, Kyiv, and other key cities, as President Volodymyr Zelensky urged the U.S. Congress to provide more weapons and increase economic pressure on Russia. The thump of distant shelling echoed through the center of Kyiv overnight, while Ukrainian forces appeared to counterattack in the outlying towns of Irpin, Bucha and Hostomel, which have been severely damaged in weeks of street fighting and artillery exchanges. The city and the surrounding region were under an all-day curfew Wednesday.Ukrainian forces also said they pressed an offensive south and east of the southern port of Mykolaiv, moving in the direction of Kherson, the only Ukrainian regional capital occupied by Russia since the war began Feb. 24. Ukraine said it carried out an airstrike on the Kherson airport, which is now a Russian air base, and satellite imagery of the tarmac showed seven destroyed or damaged Russian helicopters, some of them engulfed in flames. Kyiv also said it shot down two Russian Su-30SM jets over the Black Sea off Odessa.Moscow has largely not commented on combat losses and said its campaign was progressing. Mr. Zelensky, in a virtual address to members of Congress on Wednesday, thanked the U.S. for its support as Ukraine tries to fend off Russia’s invasion, but he added, “In the darkest time for our country, for the whole of Europe, I call for you to do more.”He renewed his appeal for a no-fly zone and added that, absent such a move—which the North Atlantic Treaty Organization has ruled out—more weapons should be provided. He also called for the imposition of further sanctions on Russia. And he asked members to pressure American companies in their districts to stop doing business in Russia.President Biden said Wednesday the U.S. would send an additional $800 million in security assistance to Ukraine, amounting to a total of $1 billion in such assistance over the past week.“We’re going to give Ukraine the arms to fight and defend themselves through all the difficult days ahead,” Mr. Biden said at the White House.
Russia claims it hit Ukrainian weapons storage with hypersonic missile --Russia on Saturday said it struck a Ukrainian weapons storage facility with a hypersonic missile.A video shared by the Russian Defense Ministry shows a missile striking a building and obliterating it on impact."Destruction of a weapons depot of the Armed Forces of Ukraine by high-precision missile weapons strike," the ministry wrote. "We can see the exact hit of an underground hangar with weapons and ammunition."Russian Maj. Gen. Igor Konashenkovsaid the strike was carried out on Friday and destroyed a "large underground storage facility for missiles and aviation ammunition" in the village of Deliatyn in the Ivano-Frankivsk region.Russian officials also claimed to have destroyed a Ukrainian convoy earlier on Saturday with similar high-precision weapon strikes.Last year, Russia conducted its first successful test of a hypersonic missile, which flies in the atmosphere at more than five times the speed of sound.
Ukraine becomes an international rallying point for neo-Nazis and mercenaries -- Ukraine is becoming a rallying point for neo-Nazis and mercenaries from all over the world. They are being given the opportunity to fight, kill and gain experience under real war conditions. The resulting unrestrained banditry is exacerbating and prolonging the war. Moreover, the mobilization of such forces is a danger to the working class in the countries from which the mercenaries originate. Ukraine’s role as a place of pilgrimage for militant neo-Nazis did not just begin with the start of the current war. The far-right militias that played a central role in the overthrow of President Yanukovych in 2014 and subsequently kept the war in the Donbas going are very well networked internationally, maintaining relations with militant neo-Nazi groups all over the world. According to Time magazine in January of last year, “more than 17,000 foreign fighters from 50 countries have come to Ukraine in the last six years,” as the WSWS has reported. In particular, the Azov Regiment, founded by the self-confessed neo-Nazi and anti-Semite Andriy Biletsky, plays a central role in recruiting and training far-right forces. The regiment was incorporated into the Ukrainian National Guard in the autumn of 2014 and deployed in the fight against the pro-Russian separatists in eastern Ukraine, giving it access to state-of-the-art weaponry provided by the US and other NATO member countries.
Ukrainian news anchor quotes Adolf Eichmann, calls for genocide against Russians - A Ukrainian television newscaster went on a fascist rant on national television on March 12, calling for the massacre of Russian children and the elimination of Russia from the face of the earth. Channel 24 anchor Fahruddin Sharafmal made the statement following a report on the death of his friend, a Ukrainian Armed Forces member, who was killed fighting Russian forces over the weekend. He used the occasion to broadcast a photo of the Nazi war criminal Adolf Eichmann over his right shoulder and appeal for the murder of millions of Ukrainian citizens who are also Russians. “I know that as a journalist, I have to be objective. I have to be balanced, in order to report information with a cold heart. But to tell you the truth, it’s very hard to keep going,” said Sharafmal. “Especially at a time like this, since in Russia they call us Nazis, fascists and so on. I’ll allow myself to quote Adolf Eichmann, who said that in order to destroy a nation you must first of all destroy its children. Because by killing their parents the children will grow up and take revenge. By killing children they will never grow up and the nation will disappear. The Ukrainian Armed Forces cannot destroy Russian children because it is forbidden by the rules of war and it is also forbidden by various conventions including the Geneva Conventions. “But I am not from the Armed Forces of Ukraine. And when I get the chance to settle things with the Russians I will be obliged to do it. Since you call me a Nazi, I’ll adhere to the doctrine of Adolf Eichmann and will do everything in my power to ensure that your children never live on this earth. So that you can feel what it’s like when innocent civilians die. So that you can feel all the pain and suffering when you say, ‘We didn’t start the war. It was all Putin. We didn't want this war.’ We didn't want it either. “But you have to understand it’s about the victory of the Ukrainian people. It’s not about peace. We need victory. And if we have to slaughter all your families to do it, I’ll be the first to do it. Glory to the nation! And let’s hope there will [not] be such a nation as Russia and the Russians on this earth again. Because they are just scum that pollute this land. If Ukrainians have the opportunity, which they are basically doing right now, to destroy, to slaughter, to kill, to strangle the Muscovites, I hope everyone will do their part and whack at least one Muscovite.”
Poland’s two largest cities warn they can no longer absorb Ukrainian refugees - Officials in Poland’s two largest cities have warned that they can no longer cope with the waves of refugees fleeing Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.The mayors of both Warsaw, the capital, and Krakow, Poland’s second largest city, said that they are struggling to accommodate the sheer number of people who are arriving — and urged the United Nations and European Union to intervene.More than 2.5 million Ukrainians have fled to neighboring countries since the war started on Feb. 24, according to the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees. The vast majority — 1.5 million people — have sought refuge in Poland, with smaller numbers fleeing to other countries such as Hungary, Moldova and Slovakia. More than 2 million people have left Ukraine, foreshadowing a massive humanitarian crisisThe head of UNHCR, Filippo Grandi, said the Ukraine exodus was “the fastest-growing refugee crisis in Europe since World War II.”abate, the agency has warned that an estimated 4 million people could flee Ukraine.In a Facebook post Friday, Krakow Mayor Jacek Majchrowski said that his government would begin sending Ukrainian refugees to accommodation outside the city, including in the surrounding province of Małopolska.“In the last several days, we have already received approx. 100,000 war refugees. Krakow is slowly losing its ability to accommodate further waves,” Majchrowski said.“We have been helping Ukraine since the first days of the war, but as a local government, we are first responsible for the citizens,” he said, adding that more arrivals could hinder “the functioning of the city.”
John Helmer: “Zelensky Himself Is Now in Polish Hands;” March 15 Summit with Polish, Czech, and Slovenian Prime Ministers in Przemysl, Poland, Not Kiev - Yves here. John Helmer makes a bombshell revelation in his latest post, that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky participated in an in-person summit on March 15, not as widely touted in Ukraine, but in Poland. It is virtually certain that given the difficulty of assuring safe passage that Zelensky has not returned to Kiev.This allegation matters because it vitiates the effort to depict Zelensky as the second coming of Winston Churchill, heroically holed up in his capital as bombs are falling. Zelensky staying, or appearing to stay, in Kiev, is also a rallying point for the sure-to-lose-but-still fighting Ukrainian army and the civilians who still unrealistically hope that Ukraine can win on the battlefield.Admittedly, Helmer relies significantly on the debunking of visual evidence….which has not proven difficult to do with a lot of Ukrainian propaganda. Helmer was a master well before the war, having made the downing of MH-17 a pet project (he not only finely parsed photographs, but made careful readings of inconsistent and shifting claims of experts and prosecutors).One might point out that showing that the official visual narrative of the meeting is faked does not necessarily prove that Zelensky was not in Kiev. Helmer presents other evidence that supports his contention, including reports from sources in Poland. What I found was compelling was that it was utterly implausible that the Polish, Czech, and Slovenian leaders made a long, overland trek to Kiev, as official accounts claimed. That would be disastrously risky in the absences of Russian assurances of safe passage, which were never made. That then begs the question of what actually happened.Lambert added, I hate this Bellingcat-style analysis because absent a very trusted source, there’s no getting to the bottom of what’s photoshopped and what isn’t.That said, Helmer is trusted, things like railway stations and “Presidential seating style” can be independently checked, and the argument about railways seems dispositive. (I’m also persuaded by the military haircuts on the so-called reporters.)
NATO plays Russian roulette with nuclear weapons -Three weeks into the Ukraine war, all of the sides involved are taking ever greater risks. The hitherto unthinkable, a nuclear exchange in Europe, is being openly considered and built up as a threat. Voices of caution, restraint and appeals to reason have largely fallen silent. Despite the looming catastrophe, NATO is not prepared to compromise. In a televised speech the day before the invasion of Ukraine, the Russian president Vladimir Putin had already issued this threat: “Whoever tries to get in our way and create further threats to our country and our people must know that Russia’s response will come immediately and will lead to consequences without precedent in history. All the necessary decisions have been taken. I hope you hear my words.” This was a clear reference to Russia’s nuclear arsenal which, according to the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, consists of more than 6,000 warheads, 900 of which are immediately operational, according to NATO. Instead of de-escalating the situation, however, NATO has poured oil onto the fire. It has categorically rejected Putin’s request for security guarantees, which the latter—following decades of NATO eastward expansion, extensive NATO manoeuvres along the Russian border and direct NATO interference in Ukraine and Georgia—must have taken as an existential threat. Since the beginning of the war, NATO has done everything in its power to cut off any chance of retreat for Putin—ranging from draconian economic sanctions to the threat of dragging him before an international tribunal. NATO is not waging war itself in name only. It is flooding Ukraine with high-tech weapons, concentrating its own troops on the border and intervening ever more directly in the war. So far, the alliance has shied away from open military action against Russia. On March 11, US President Joe Biden insisted on Twitter that “we will defend every inch of NATO territory with the full might of a united and galvanized NATO.” He rejected direct military intervention in Ukraine, however, writing: “A direct confrontation between NATO and Russia is World War III. And something we must strive to prevent.” But even this hurdle is disappearing rapidly. Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky, several Eastern European heads of government, as well as other political figures in Europe and the US, are emphatically calling for the establishment of a no-fly zone, which would be tantamount to NATO officially entering the war.
Tsunami-hit cities keen to offer homes to Ukrainians - This disaster-hit city is offering to lay down the red carpet for Ukrainians fleeing Russia’s invasion of their homeland to return the kindness shown by the world when it was devastated by a massive earthquake and tsunami in 2011. Mayor Futoshi Toba proposed the gesture during a March 12 meeting with Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, who was visiting as part of a tour of the three prefectures hardest hit by tsunami generated by the magnitude-9.0 Great East Japan Earthquake. “When we were flattened by the disaster, people around the world extended their assistance to us and we remain eternally grateful,” Toba told Kishida. “We are very keen to take in Ukrainian refugees.” Iwate Governor Takuya Tasso, who also attended the meeting, said the prefectural government felt the same way. Kishida responded that he will consider the proposal in a positive manner. Kishida told reporters after the meeting that Ishinomaki, a city in neighboring Miyagi Prefecture that was also devastated in the disaster, had expressed a similar desire. “The central government will think about the best ways to accommodate Ukrainian people after heeding what they will need and by working in conjunction with local municipalities,” Kishida said. On March 2, the prime minister said Japan will accept Ukrainian refuges to show solidarity with them after phone talks with Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki.
Prolonged pandemic taking an increasing mental toll | The Asahi Shimbun - Mental health issues among COVID-19 patients have apparently increased, particularly over anxieties about infecting colleagues and loved ones and how others will view them. Operators of helplines say they have been inundated with calls from COVID-19 patients and uninfected people during the latest wave of infections and as the pandemic drags on. A 45-year-old woman in Sapporo said her mental problems started while she was self-isolating at home after she tested positive in January. “Solitude and anxiety beat me down mentally,” she said. Although she has returned to her work as a life counselor for a nursing care facility in the Hokkaido capital, she said a blank still exists in her life. She lives in a two-story house with her 55-year-old husband, a 16-year-old daughter and a 10-year-old son. The woman also has a 19-year-old daughter who lives in a nearby city. After this daughter visited the family home, she tested positive for the virus on Jan. 11. The mother’s infection was confirmed on Jan. 16, and she self-isolated in her upstairs room. None of the other family members tested positive. She was in tears when she told her superior over the phone that she had been infected. She said she felt guilty for inconveniencing her understaffed workplace, which has fewer than 10 staff members, and was also concerned she might have transmitted the virus among the nearly 20 elderly citizens who use the facility. Her symptoms were mild, including a runny nose and a slight fever. But her gloominess increased in isolation. She feared that she would infect her family members and worried about how she would reintegrate into her workplace.A 27-year-old company employee who lives in Tokyo’s Adachi Ward said she got depressed by reading posts on social media while she was recuperating from COVID-19. After testing positive in January, she wanted to recuperate in a hotel to prevent household transmission. But there were no vacancies so she had to stay at home. She worried that she had infected her co-workers and could transmit the virus to her husband at home. The constant fears sometime made her weep. The woman took a casual look at social media in hopes of relieving the sense of helplessness. Some of the posts she read made matters worse.
China’s Covid-19 Surge Shuts Down Plants in Manufacturing Hubs Shenzhen and Changchun – WSJ - A surge in Covid-19 cases led Chinese manufacturing hubs Shenzhen and Changchun to lock down in recent days, halting production at many electronics and auto factories in the latest threat to the world’s battered supply chain. A number of manufacturers including Foxconn Technology Group, a major assembler of Apple Inc.’s iPhones, said they were halting operations in Shenzhen in compliance with the local government’s policy. The government placed the city into lockdown for at least a week and said everyone in the city would have to undergo three rounds of testing after 86 new cases of domestic Covid-19 infections were detected Sunday. While China’s case numbers are tiny by global standards, the country has adopted a zero-Covid policy that aims at nipping all outbreaks in the bud through testing and lockdowns. Over the past two years, the world’s second-biggest economy has repeatedly locked down entire cities or sections of them, ordering factories to suspend operations as people stay home. Such suspensions have typically lasted for several weeks as authorities worked to bring down the number of infections, causing production snags in the semiconductor, automobile and other industries. Officials didn’t say when the lockdowns would end—in Shenzhen, officials said they would decide whether the lockdown needs to be extended after a week based on the state of the pandemic then. In recent days, daily Covid-19 infection numbers in China have hit levels not seen since early 2020. Over the past two years, companies have been grappling with various supply disruptions stemming from the pandemic, including a major chip shortage. Most recently, they have been facing fallout from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. A shortage of electronics has contributed to a rise in prices around the globe including in the U.S., where inflation in February hit a 40-year high of 7.9%. Foxconn’s sites in Shenzhen, in southern China, produce some iPhones as well as iPads and computers. The majority of iPhones, however, are made at a factory in central Henan province. Foxconn, formally known as Hon Hai Precision Industry Co., said it would aim to keep up production by shifting work to other plants in China. Printed circuit-board maker Unimicron Technology Corp. said its Shenzhen subsidiary halted production Monday morning. Unimicron is also a major Apple supplier but doesn’t currently handle Apple-related orders in Shenzhen, according to Apple’s latest supplier list. Unimicron said the subsidiary accounts for less than 3% of its total revenue. At least six other companies on the Apple list are based in Shenzhen. The city is home to many Chinese manufacturing giants including telecommunication equipment maker Huawei Technologies Co. and electric-vehicle maker BYD Co. , which produces electric cars and batteries.
As China’s covid outbreak expands, whole cities and provinces are sealed off and key industries closed -China has put several of its industrial hubs under lockdown to confront its worst coronavirus outbreak in two years, restricting the movement of tens of millions of residents in measures that threaten to disrupt global supply chains.China, one of the few countries in the world to maintain a “zero-covid” strategy, is battling a surge of cases in at least 19 provinces that is testing the government’s commitment to minimizing infections as much as possible.The surge — and accompanying lockdowns that could severely harm the recovering economy — may force the country to rethink its approach to the virus as much of the world begins to ease pandemic restrictions. Hong Kong’s key Hang Seng index plummeted by 5 percent on Monday over covid worries.The National Health Commission on Monday reported 2,125 new locally transmitted coronavirus cases across the country. Since last week, cities have ground to a halt to stop the outbreak, which comes as the country enters a critical year for transitions in the Chinese leadership, with President Xi Jinping set to take a controversial third term.In Shenzhen, officials ordered the city’s more than 17 million people to stay at home starting on Monday through March 20, after just 150 new cases were reported over the weekend.China posted a steep jump in daily coronavirus infections on Tuesday with new cases more than doubling from a day earlier to a two-year high. (Reuters)The city is home to key Chinese companies like Huawei, electric carmaker BYD and Tencent. Apple supplier Foxconn suspended operations, as did circuit board makers Sunflex and Unimicron, also a supplier to Apple and Intel.Authorities in the northeastern province of Jilin on Monday barred its 24 million residents from leaving, marking the first time officials have sealed an entire province since January 2020 when Hubei was put under lockdown. Health officials said hospitals were overrun because of the rapid increase in cases since Friday. The province recorded more than 4,605 coronavirus cases on Saturday, while 3,868 residents have tested positive in preliminary tests but were not yet included in the official tally, officials said.
Putin's invasion of Ukraine has lit a fire under China to wall off its economy from the US -The Chinese Communist Party maps out the country's future in carefully laid plans. Over the past few years Beijing's most ambitious goal has been to dramatically reshape its economy, reducing its dependence on the West as it turned China into the world's dominant superpower. Now Russia's unprovoked attack on Ukraine threatens to destroy that plan. China was slowly closing its door to the West, but the key word there is slowly. The unified response to Putin's war — and the West's condemnation of China's role in it — could slam the door shut before Beijing is ready, leaving the CCP in an existential crisis. In the midst of a brutal invasion and the coordinated destruction of Russia's economy, China has been relatively silent. Last week, Chinese President Xi Jinping called for "restraint" and said he supported Germany and France's attempts to broker a peace deal. But while Xi may say he supports peace, China's state-controlled media has quickly pivoted to parroting Russian propaganda about the war, a clear sign that the CCP has no intention of breaking from Russia entirely.Above all else, Xi is an ideologue who defines the CCP's existence as a struggle between East and West. Since he came to power in 2013, Beijing and Moscow have grown closer. They both dream of a world in which the US and European Union no longer dominate financial markets, global institutions, and popular culture. And they share a nightmare in which their own citizens rise up and demand democratic leadership — a so-called "color revolution." Russia has imperial designs on the territories that made up the USSR. China wishes to subdue Taiwan. Twenty days before Russia attacked Ukraine, Moscow and Beijing released a 5,000-word statement outlining their unity of purpose and deep friendship with "no limits."But Moscow has put Beijing in a difficult position. China must tread carefully. Although the country has the second-largest economy in the world, with an increasing share generated by domestic consumption, it is still deeply intertwined with the US and Europe and largely dependent on exports. And the longer the war drags on, the harder it will be for Beijing to balance its ideological closeness to Putin with its economic need to stay in the West's good graces."The longer this conflict persists, the bloodier it becomes, the more awkward China is going to feel," says Ali Wyne, a senior analyst with Eurasia Group. "China's trying to balance competing positions." On Sunday, ahead of a meeting between the US and China to discuss the situation in Ukraine, US officials told reporters that Russia asked China weeks ago for help in waging its war. The timing of this report appears to be an attempt to put pressure on China to finally show its cards. And Jake Sullivan, President Biden's National Security Advisor, told reporters that during a meeting with a top Chinese diplomat on Monday he expressed "deep concerns" about the country's relationship with Russia. Sullivan also said the US made it clear to Beijing that there "will absolutely be consequences for large-scale sanctions evasion efforts or support to Russia to backfill them."
Russia resumes rough diamond exports to India –— RT Business News -Alrosa, a partly state-owned Russian diamond mining company, started shipping rough diamonds to India after a pause, the Economic Times reported on Wednesday. According to the outlet, the exporters are using German banks to make transactions in euros due to the sanctions imposed on Russia in the wake of its attack on Ukraine. “Orders for these diamonds were placed in early March, according to the sightholding schedule of Alrosa. They are coming now,” the chairman of India’s Gem & Jewellery Export Council (GJEPC), Colin Shah, said, as quoted by the Economic Times. Shah added that while the deals are now made in euros and other currencies, the Indian authorities are working to restore a rupee-ruble payment mechanism for sales starting from April as a long-term solution. India is the world’s leader in rough diamond cutting, as 90% of the world’s cutting factories are located in the country. The Russian trade representative in India, Alexander Rybas, previously told TASS that by the end of September 2021, about $700 million worth of rough diamonds were shipped directly from Russia to India.
Ford to ramp up EV offering in Europe, plans major battery facility in Turkey Ford has laid out plans to roll out three new passenger electric vehicles and four new commercial EVs in Europe by 2024, with the company saying it expected to sell over 600,000 EVs per year in the region by 2026. The automotive giant also wants all vehicle sales in Europe to be zero-emission by 2035. In a statement Monday, Ford said the ramp up would commence with the production of a medium-sized electric crossover in Cologne, Germany, in 2023. Then the manufacture of another electric vehicle in Cologne will start in 2024, while an electric version of the Ford Puma, produced in Romania, will be available the same year. Ford said the EV production planned for Cologne was now slated to hit 1.2 million vehicles across a period of six years. Investment in the EVs planned for Cologne will amount to $2 billion. On the commercial vehicle front, four new electric versions in Ford's Transit range will also be produced, starting in 2023. Ford also said it had signed a non-binding memorandum of understanding with South Korea's SK On Co. and Turkey's Koç Holding. The MOU relates to the establishment of a joint venture centered around the development of a commercial EV battery facility near the Turkish capital of Ankara. If all goes to plan, it's hoped production at the plant could begin by the middle of this decade. Ford said the JV had support from the Turkish government and would have a capacity ranging between 30 to 45 gigawatt hours per year.
BMW, VW say Russia invasion is causing reduced vehicle production in Europe - The war in Ukraine has slowed vehicle production in Europe and caused shortages for integral parts, BMW and Volkswagen said this week.The German automakers are particularly struggling to get wiring harnesses because Ukraine is a major supplier of the parts.Nicolas Peter, a member of the board of management for BMW, on Wednesday said "supply restrictions" had resulted in "production interruptions at several BMW Group plants."Volkswagen expressed similar concerns last week, saying in an outlook report that it was unclear what the impact would be but that the war would create "bottlenecks in the supply chain."The Associated Press reported Volkswagen was shifting some auto production out of Europe and into other regions like South America and China.On Tuesday, IHS Markit, a research firm with S&P Global, downgraded its 2022 forecast by 2.6 million vehicles because of Russia's i nvasion of Ukraine.The research firm said Ukraine is a major supplier of the wiring harnesses, which are complex assemblages of wires and cables, while Russia supplies about 40 percent of the world's palladium, a metal primarily used for vehicle production.
Nickel crisis points to fragility of global finance - The extreme fragility of the global financial system in the wake of the sanctions imposed on Russia by the Western powers has been highlighted by the negotiations involving some of the world’s biggest banks to resolve the crisis in the nickel market that erupted last week. Yesterday it was announced that major banks, including JPMorgan Chase and Standard Chartered, had reached an agreement with the Chinese metals firm Tsingshan Holding Group not to press to close out the company’s position in nickel trades or to make further margin calls. Such calls are demands for additional cash from the company that result from its failed bets in the nickel market. Tsinhshan had shorted nickel in a series of contracts in anticipation that its price would go down. However, in the wake of the war crisis in Ukraine, the price shot up, leaving the company with a potential loss of billions of dollars. The company is the world’s biggest stainless steel producer and a big consumer of nickel. After trading at around $30,000 per tonne, the price of nickel jumped to $50,000 on Monday of last week on the London Metal Exchange (LME). It then doubled to $100,000 the following day, whereupon the exchange closed its nickel market and left it closed until yesterday. Following the agreement, the LME is expected to reopen today. The deal between the banks and Tshingshan does not fully resolve the issue as the company is still on the hook for the money it owes. It is a standstill arrangement aimed at working out an agreement for new credit provisions and for the company to settle its “nickel margin and settlement requirements.” In effect, the major banks have decided not to immediately press ahead with their margin calls lest this spark a wider crisis. While it plans to reopen, the LME has said it will introduce daily price limits for all metals, including nickel. Members will be asked to disclose all contracts in derivatives markets of more than 100 tonnes. Announcing the decision, the LME said it had noted that a “large client of the market has now published details relating to the support of a banking consortium, which could suggest that the potential for further disorderly conditions may be mitigated.” The nickel market is relatively small and Tsinghan’s losses, while running into billions of dollars, did not in and of themselves pose a threat. But the wider implications of the incident did. The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) reported that producers and manufacturers of nickel-related products in China have said their operations have been adversely affected. More than half a dozen Chinese companies have sent notices to their customers and investors warning of problems in supplies, price increases or the inability to meet orders. Jilin Jien Nickel, which manufactures nickel sulfate and nickel chloride in eastern China, issued a letter to customers last week advising them it was likely to lose money because of the increased cost of imported raw materials. “A ruthless game of capital has come to us with lightning speed,” the letter said. “It has brought an unprecedented survival crisis to those responsible and hardworking enterprises’ including us.” It warned that “huge losses are no longer avoidable.” According to the WSJ, the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association, whose members include hundreds of firms, both state-backed and privately owned, said last week it was highly concerned about the “irrational surge” in nickel prices on the LME which had caused serious damage to companies in the global nickel supply chain.
Is It Time to Start Worrying About European Banks’ Exposure to Russian Debt? - It is getting harder and harder for European banks to continue operating in Russia as the pressure rises on them to pack their bags. Or at least close the office doors until the dust settles from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, assuming it ever does. Last Thursday (March 10), Deutsche Bank’s chief financial officer said it was impractical for the bank to shutter its Russian unit; a day later, presumably following some serious arm twisting from European and US authorities, the bank changed its tune. “Like some international peers and in line with our legal regulatory obligations, we are in the process of winding down our remaining business in Russia while we help our non-Russian multinational clients in reducing their operations,” wrote Dylan Riddle, a U.S.-based spokesperson for the German bank, in an email, adding “there won’t be any new business in Russia.”Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan Chase were the first major Western banks to announce they are leaving Russia following the country’s invasion of Ukraine. But the two lenders had already significantly pared back their operations in the country following Crimea’s referendum to join Russia in 2014. And whether or not the two Wall Street giants actually deliver on their threat remains to be seen. After all, both lenders have been gobbling up the distressed debt of Russian stocks and bonds after unprecedented economic sanctions crushed their market value.The only major U.S. bank that has kept a large presence in Russia is Citigroup, which has around 3,000 employees in the country and close to $10 billion in total exposure. Citi said on Wednesday it was assessing its options.On a pound for pound basis, European banks are far more exposed than their U.S. counterparts. As I noted in a previous article, cutting off Russian banks from the Belgium-based SWIFT payments system, the backbone of the cross-border payments and the global banking network, could backfire on European banks in a serious way. An unnamed banker cited by Reuters likened it to an “atomic bomb” for the industry since it could end up preventing the repayment of debts to European banks with significant exposure to Russia.In the end, just seven out of 300 Russian financial institutions were cut off from SWIFT, but they included VTB, which has large operations in Europe. Even more importantly, the U.S., EU and Japan have barred the Russian central bank from accessing a large chunk of the vast foreign currency reserves Moscow had been amassing in their domestic banks. Russia’s central bank is still allowed to access its reserves for energy payments, which keeps a lifeline open for the central bank as well as for energy-dependent European countries. It is also still able to access the 13% of its foreign currency reserves held in Chinese yuan.
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