week ending Mar 5

Fed Chair Powell notes 'highly uncertain' Ukraine impact, but says rate hikes are still coming - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell still sees interest rate hikes coming, but noted Wednesday that the Russia-Ukraine war has injected uncertainty into the outlook. In remarks prepared for dual appearances this week before House and Senate committees in Congress, the central bank chief acknowledged the "tremendous hardship" the Russian invasion of Ukraine is causing. "The implications for the U.S. economy are highly uncertain, and we will be monitoring the situation closely," Powell said. "The near-term effects on the U.S. economy of the invasion of Ukraine, the ongoing war, the sanctions, and of events to come, remain highly uncertain," he added. "Making appropriate monetary policy in this environment requires a recognition that the economy evolves in unexpected ways. We will need to be nimble in responding to incoming data and the evolving outlook." The observations come amid 40-year highs for inflation in the U.S., complicated by a Ukraine war that has driven oil prices to around their highest levels in a decade. Consumer prices increased 7.5% from a year ago in January, and the Fed's preferred inflation gauge showed its strongest 12-month gain since 1983. Powell and his fellow policymakers have been indicating for weeks that they plan to start raising benchmark interest rates to tackle inflation. He reiterated the stance Wednesday that the process will involve "interest rate increases," along with indications that the Fed eventually will start reducing its bond holdings. "We will use our policy tools as appropriate to prevent higher inflation from becoming entrenched while promoting a sustainable expansion and a strong labor market," he said. "We have phased out our net asset purchases. With inflation well above 2 percent and a strong labor market, we expect it will be appropriate to raise the target range for the federal funds rate at our meeting later this month." Powell said the likely path for rate hikes will be increments of a quarter percentage point, though he said he would be open to more aggressive moves if inflation gets worse. "We're going to avoid adding uncertainty to what is already an extraordinarily challenging and uncertain moment," he said under questioning from House Financial Services Committee members. "To the extent that inflation comes in higher or is more persistently high than that, we would be prepared to move more aggressively by raising the federal funds rate by more than 25 basis points at a meeting or meetings." The Fed will start cutting the size of its asset holdings after rate hikes have begun, he added. Since the beginning of the Covid pandemic, the Fed has been buying Treasurys and mortgage-backed securities at the fastest pace ever, driving the total holdings on the central bank balance sheet to nearly $9 trillion. Powell said the reduction will be conducted "in a predictable manner," largely through allowing some proceeds from the bonds to roll off each month rather than reinvesting them. On the economy, the chairman said he still expects inflation to decelerate through the year as supply chain issues are resolved. He called the labor market "extremely tight" and noted strong wage gains, particularly for lower earners and minorities. "We understand that high inflation imposes significant hardship, especially on those least able to meet the higher costs of essentials like food, housing, and transportation," he said. "We know that the best thing we can do to support a strong labor market is to promote a long expansion, and that is only possible in an environment of price stability."

Fed Chair Powell: Raise Rates in March, Effects of Invasion "highly uncertain" --An excerpt from prepared testimony of Fed Chair Pro Tempore Powell: Semiannual Monetary Policy Report to the Congress: Our monetary policy has been adapting to the evolving economic environment, and it will continue to do so. We have phased out our net asset purchases. With inflation well above 2 percent and a strong labor market, we expect it will be appropriate to raise the target range for the federal funds rate at our meeting later this month.
The process of removing policy accommodation in current circumstances will involve both increases in the target range of the federal funds rate and reduction in the size of the Federal Reserve's balance sheet. As the FOMC noted in January, the federal funds rate is our primary means of adjusting the stance of monetary policy. Reducing our balance sheet will commence after the process of raising interest rates has begun, and will proceed in a predictable manner primarily through adjustments to reinvestments.The near-term effects on the U.S. economy of the invasion of Ukraine, the ongoing war, the sanctions, and of events to come, remain highly uncertain. Making appropriate monetary policy in this environment requires a recognition that the economy evolves in unexpected ways. We will need to be nimble in responding to incoming data and the evolving outlook.

Fed will move “aggressively” on interest rates if inflation persists -- US Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell has said the central bank will go ahead with a 0.25 percentage point increase in interest rates when it meets later this month and will lift rates throughout the rest of the year, possibly by larger amounts, if inflation becomes “entrenched.” Speaking to the House Finance Services Committee yesterday, Powell said he was “inclined to propose and support” a hike of 25 basis points (bp) and that he expects a “series” of rate rises this year. Powell said he and other members of the Fed’s policy-making body “have an expectation that inflation will peak and begin to come down this year” but the Fed was prepared to move if it did not. “To the extent that inflation comes in higher or is more persistent … then we would be prepared to move more aggressively by raising the federal funds rate by more than 25bp” at one or more meetings. While not explicit, Powell’s remarks made clear that the key determinant in any decision by the Fed to move “aggressively” will be to what extent workers begin to demand higher wages to compensate for rising prices. Inflation is now running at more than 7 percent in the US with predictions that it could go to double digits. He described the labour market as “extremely tight” and demand was strong. The Fed was “attentive to the risks of potential further upward pressure on inflation and inflation expectations and inflation itself from a number of factors. We will use our tools as appropriate to prevent higher inflation from becoming entrenched.” Asked about the impact of the Ukraine crisis on monetary policy, Powell said the “economic effects of these events are highly uncertain.” He said the bottom line is that the Fed would proceed with interest rate rises “but we will proceed carefully as we learn more about the implications of the Ukraine war for the economy.”Operating on the shortest of short-term outlooks, the upward movement by Wall Street yesterday appears to have resulted from Powell’s testimony, which effectively ruled out an immediate 0.5 percentage point hike. Over the longer term, there will be an inflationary surge throughout the world economy because of the war crisis. The price of oil rose to $110 a barrel yesterday, an eight-year high, bringing the rise over the past week to 10 percent. Russia is the world’s third largest producer of oil, and the price could go very much higher if sanctions are extended to exclude it from the world market.

Bullard Says Fed Must Follow Through With "Rapid Withdrawal Of Accommodation" Or Risk Losing Credibility One day after markets freaked out that the Fed's tightening plans had suffered irreparable damage at the hands of Vladimir Putin, whose incursion into Ukraine would mean not only sharply higher inflation but a much greater global slowdown than many had feared, prompting several ECB talking heads to hint at a pause in normalization, moments ago one of the Fed's most notable hawks, St Louis Fed president Jim Bulllard, tried to ease market fears by calling for a “rapid withdrawal of policy accommodation” and emphasized policy makers must follow through with rate hikes and balance sheet runoff or risk damaging the central bank’s credibility. Speaking at a a meeting of Greater St. Louis, Bullard said that while inflation “has surprised substantially to the upside", the current situation "calls for rapid withdrawal of policy accommodation in order to preserve the best chance for a long and durable expansion”, even though the best chance for preserving the expansion would have been a rate hike some time in late 2020 early 2021 and now many wonder if it's not already too late. Repeating a familiar mantra which may have been accurate last quarter but is now woefully out of date, especially after the Atlanta Fed's GDP Nowcast showed that Q1 GDP is trending at 0.0%, Bullard said that the U.S. economy is "doing better in terms of inflation-adjusted consumption than it would have been without the pandemic", pointing to the trend line drawn from 2011, adding that the real economy has more than fully recovered from the pandemic recession. Bullard then said something that is somewhat accurate, namely that "the FOMC must now follow through with policy rate increases and balance sheet runoff or risk squandering policy credibility", although it still remains unclear just how the Fed will alleviate supply-driven inflation which is where the bulk of the commodity price bottleneck is right now. To be sure, oil isn't trading at $111 because of demand considerations. Bullard also said that “the FOMC may have to move more aggressively going forward if inflation increases or does not moderate as much as expected”, although how more "aggressive" tightening will not send the broader US economy into a recession is unclear. The regional Fed president also said Fed policy settings are “putting upward pressure on inflation, exacerbating the inflation problem.” Addressing the Russia-Ukraine war, Bullard said it will have to be monitored closely but will likely impact Europe more directly than the US, even though as we explained previously, the US will certainly be adversely impacted as well. Bullard also said that global energy markets will be impacted over the short-to-medium term, which may lead to increased U.S. production of oil and natural gas.

Where have you gone, Chairman Volcker? - In 1981, during an unprecedented period of escalating interest rates and double-digit inflation, as federal bank regulators, we attended meetings in Washington that focused on developing a strategy to avoid financial collapse. We learned some important lessons from these events that can serve us well today. In mid-1981, we visited with Paul Volcker, chairman of the Federal Reserve Board, to ask him to open the discount window to the country’s 4,500 savings and loans, every one of which was failing. The alternative was systemic illiquidity, depositor runs and a collapse of the housing industry. Chairman Volcker and his colleagues at the Fed worked diligently to ensure that savings institutions would be able to access funds at the discount window as we shuttered 20% of them over the next two years. Stopping inflation was his No. 1 priority, but as the Fed raised interest rates to extinguish it, it further sealed the fate of S&Ls by exposing them to a blunder that Congress had made 15 years before. Lawmakers had capped the interest rates that savers could be paid in order to subsidize long-term, fixed-rate home lending. That would eventually crush the S&L industry in an economic vise by forcing it to borrow short and lend long (30 years, at a fixed rate) based on the false hope that interest rates would remain low forever. In the weeks that followed, we had meetings that included the director of the Office of Management and Budget, the White House chief of staff, the secretary of the Treasury, and senior White House policy advisors and Treasury officials. We also visited with the chairs and ranking members of the Senate and House banking committees. The receptions we and our problems received ranged from cool to stunningly hostile. Most neither understood the reasons for the crisis or the economic devastation that it would cause if left unattended. In contrast to our meetings with Chairman Volcker, the White House, Treasury and the OMB asked us to make believe that the problem didn’t exist. We were asked to sit tight because the problem was only “temporary,” or as Chairman Jerome Powell had been accustomed to saying until recently “transitory.” The administration’s position was that inflation and interest rates would “eventually” return to normal, and all would be right again. There was no need to close any more institutions. We begged to differ as to the impact on financial institutions and the economy and declined to accept the offer to ignore reality.

Biden touts Ukraine-war sanctions, calls for move on Fed nominees — President Biden vowed to hold the Russian Federation accountable for its invasion of Ukraine and called on Congress to breathe new life into his economic agenda in Congress. Delivering his first official State of the Union address on Tuesday night, Biden laid out the economic sanctions levied by the U.S. and its allies in response to the Russian military assault launched last week on Ukraine. “Putin’s latest attack on Ukraine was premeditated and unprovoked. He rejected repeated efforts at diplomacy,” Biden said in prepared remarks. “He thought the West and NATO wouldn’t respond, and he thought he could divide us at home. Putin was wrong. We were ready.”

Partisan tension over Fed nominees builds at Powell hearing - Lawmakers on the House Financial Services Committee clashed over the five stalled Federal Reserve nominees during an appearance Wednesday by one of those picks — Fed Chairman Jerome Powell. While House members play no part in confirming nominees, the partisan exchange was part of Democrats’ building pressure on Senate Republicans to stop blocking votes on President Biden’s nominations for the central bank. It also was perhaps a prelude to Powell’s appearance before the Senate Banking Committee scheduled for Thursday. Powell — who is up for renomination as chairman — largely dodged questions on the confirmation process, saying that he doesn’t “want to comment directly or indirectly” as he awaits the Senate's vote.

Republicans resist full-court press by Democrats to OK Fed nominees — Democratic senators continued their campaign to advance the Biden administration’s Federal Reserve nominees out of the Senate Banking Committee, while Republicans argued the central bank is operating just fine without them. Amid testimony Thursday morning from Jerome Powell, chair pro tempore of the Federal Reserve, Democrats on the Senate Banking Committee assailed their Republican colleagues for boycotting a key vote for the five Federal Reserve nominees put forward by the White House, including Powell. Republican opposition crystalized in early February against one nominee in particular — former Fed governor and Treasury official Sarah Bloom Raskin — for her views on the role of climate risk in bank supervision.

Beige Book Finds Spending Slowed, Inflation Rose In March As Shortages Increased - With Powell telling Congress that a 25 bps rate hike in two weeks is in the bag, moments ago the latest Fed Beige Book validated the cheerful economic outlook, noting that based on information collected before February 18, 2022, US economy activity expanded at "a modest to moderate pace since mid-January." Of course, all this will change now following the Ukraine war but we'll cross that bridge when the next Beige Book is released on April 20. While covid is now a distant memory with mandates falling left and right as the US has a new crisis to obsess over, many districts reported that the surge in COVID-19 cases temporarily disrupted business activity as firms faced heighted absenteeism. Some Districts attributed a temporary weakening in demand in the hospitality sector to the rise in cases. Severe winter weather was also cited as disrupting activity. As a result, consumer spending was generally weaker than in the prior report. Some other highlights from the report:

• Reports on auto sales were mixed, while manufacturing activity continued to grow at a modest pace.
• All Districts noted that supply chain issues and low inventories continued to restrain growth, particularly in the construction sector.
• Reports from banking contacts indicated some weakening of financial conditions, although loan demand was generally unchanged.
• Demand for residential real estate was generally strong, although many Districts reported no change in home sales due to seasonal trends and low inventories.
• Agriculture reports were somewhat mixed, as some Districts experienced difficult growing conditions while others benefited from higher crop prices.
• Reports on the energy sector indicated modest growth.

That said, the overall economic outlook over the next six months remained stable and generally optimistic, although reports highlighted an elevated degree of uncertainty. Looking at labor markets, the Fed notes that employment increased at a modest to moderate pace. Widespread strong demand for workers remained hampered by equally widespread reports of worker scarcity, though some Districts reported scattered signs of improving labor supply. Many firms had difficulty maintaining their staffing levels due to high turnover; this challenge was exacerbated by COVID-19 disruptions in January, though workers and firms recovered more quickly than during previous waves. Firms continued to increase compensation and introduce workplace flexibility to attract workers—especially in historically low-wage positions—with mixed success. Contacts reported they expect the tight labor market and consequent strong wage growth to continue, though a few Districts reported signs of wage growth moderating. Inflation, of course, remains the big problem, with prices charged to customers increasing at a robust pace across the nation. A few Districts reported an acceleration in prices. Rising input costs were cited as a primary contributing factor across a broad swath of industries, with elevated transport costs particularly significant. Labor cost increases and ongoing materials shortages also contributed to higher input prices. Firms reported an increased ability to pass on prices to consumers; in most cases, demand has remained strong despite price increases. Firms reported they expect additional price increases over the next several months as they continue to pass on input cost increases.

Fed's Beige Book: "Supply chain issues and low inventories continued to restrain growth" -- Fed's Beige Book "This report was prepared at the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis based on information collected on or before February 18, 2022. " Except: Economic activity has expanded at a modest to moderate pace since mid-January. Many Districts reported that the surge in COVID-19 cases temporarily disrupted business activity as firms faced heighted absenteeism. Some Districts attributed a temporary weakening in demand in the hospitality sector to the rise in cases. Severe winter weather was also cited as disrupting activity. As a result, consumer spending was generally weaker than in the prior report. Reports on auto sales were mixed. Manufacturing activity continued to grow at a modest pace. All Districts noted that supply chain issues and low inventories continued to restrain growth, particularly in the construction sector. Reports from banking contacts indicated some weakening of financial conditions, although loan demand was generally unchanged. Demand for residential real estate was generally strong, although many Districts reported no change in home sales due to seasonal trends and low inventories. Agriculture reports were somewhat mixed, as some Districts experienced difficult growing conditions while others benefited from higher crop prices. Reports on the energy sector indicated modest growth. Among reporting Districts, the overall economic outlook over the next six months remained stable and generally optimistic, although reports highlighted an elevated degree of uncertainty....Employment increased at a modest to moderate pace. Widespread strong demand for workers remained hampered by equally widespread reports of workerscarcity, though some Districts reported scattered signs of improving labor supply. Many firms had difficulty maintaining their staffing levels due to high turnover; this challenge was exacerbated by COVID-19 disruptions in January, though workers and firms recovered more quickly than during previous waves. Firms continued to increase compensation and introduce workplace flexibility to attract workers—especially in historically low-wage positions—with mixed success. Contacts reported they expect the tight labor market and consequent strong wage growth to continue, though a few Districts reported signs of wage growth moderating.

Who can fix the price tags? U.S. businesses hit by labor shortages, inflation (Reuters) - In the U.S. Midwest one retailer planned to raise prices but did not have enough floor staff to physically change the tags. In the South, a high-end restaurant chain let employees "shift surf" among the eateries it owned, tailoring their schedules and maximizing their moneymaking. But the new system left some establishments short-staffed. In Alaska and Utah, job candidates skipped scheduled interviews and new hires failed to show up for their first day of work. Those stories and others were showcased in the Federal Reserve's latest Beige Book, a periodic snapshot of the U.S. economy as relayed by the central bank's business contacts from coast to coast. They highlighted how high inflation and labor shortages are colliding, sometimes producing outcomes that seem scripted for late-night talk show monologues. The Beige Book anecdotes also show why Fed Chair Jerome Powell will go ahead with raising interest rates this month despite rising economic uncertainty from Russia's invasion of Ukraine. The main reason for the Fed's imminent move, as Powell made clear on Wednesday, is to tamp down inflation, running at three times the Fed's 2% target. But in his monetary policy update to Congress Wednesday, Powell also flagged the "widespread" improvements in labor market conditions. He noted that low-wage workers alone were getting wage hikes that outpaced high inflation. He added that: "employers are having difficulties filling job openings, an unprecedented number of workers are quitting to take new jobs, and wages are rising at their fastest pace in many years." The Beige Book noted that many firms told the Cleveland Fed employee turnover was high "for various reasons, including a greater desire to work remotely, receive higher wages, change careers, or find better working conditions." "Government employees may have benefits but working for lower pay than the pizza delivery guy is very demoralizing," a contact told the Minneapolis Fed, explaining why public sector workers are seeking other jobs. Some firms told the Richmond Fed that even after raising pay and adding benefits, they still lost workers "to companies who were willing to pay higher wages or were fully remote." By raising interest rates, Powell hopes to slow the demand for not just for goods, services and houses, but also for workers, bringing it into better alignment with the limited supply.

Business Cycle Indicators at End-February, January Inflation Recap -Menzie Chinn - Personal income and consumption for January, and manufacturing and trade industry sales for December, were released last week. The PCE deflator for January was also released, rounding out January inflation numbers. Figure 1: Nonfarm payroll employment (dark blue), Bloomberg consensus for February NFP (blue +), industrial production (red), personal income excluding transfers in Ch.2012$ (green), manufacturing and trade sales in Ch.2012$ (black), consumption in Ch.2012$ (light blue), and monthly GDP in Ch.2012$ (pink), all log normalized to 2020M02=0. NBER defined recession dates, peak-to-trough, shaded gray. Source: BLS, Federal Reserve, BEA, via FRED, IHS Markit (nee Macroeconomic Advisers) (2/1/2022 release), NBER, and author’s calculations. Consumption growth continued, even as personal income excluding transfers fell. PCE inflation (m/m) rose slightly — as did all the other indicators except that for Chained CPI. Figure 2: Month-on-month inflation of CPI (blue), chained CPI (brown), 16% trimmed CPI inflation (red), sticky price CPI inflation (green), personal consumption expenditure deflator inflation (black), all in decimal form (i.e., 0.05 means 5%). Chained CPI seasonally adjusted using arithmetic deviations (brown). NBER defined recession dates (peak-to-trough) shaded gray. Source: BLS, BEA, Atlanta Fed, NBER, and author’s calculations.

FT-IGM February Survey of Macroeconomists --Menzie Chinn - Survey taken last week, published today here. The FT-IGM Survey of Macroeconomists median forecast implies this path for GDP: Figure 1: GDP (black), FT-IGM survey median (large light blue square), and 10th/90th percentile (light blue +), and Survey of Professional Forecasters February mean (red), all in billions Ch.2012$ SAAR. NBER defined recession dates peak-to-trough shaded gray. Source: BEA, Q4 2nd release, FT-IGM survey, Philadelphia Fed, NBER, and author’s calculations.The FT-IGM survey was conducted on the eve of the Russian invasion of Ukraine (21-23 February). It’s interesting to see how this information was incorporated into the assessment (lots of other data came in between the early December and late February surveys, including the Q4 advance GDP release).Figure 2: GDP (black), FT-IGM survey median response from February (large light blue square), and from December 2021 (small light blue square), and Survey of Professional Forecasters February mean (red), all in billions Ch.2012$ SAAR. Source: BEA, Q4 2nd release, FT-IGM survey, Philadelphia Fed, NBER, and author’s calculations.My reasoning for downshifting the estimated growth was obvious, given that I was almost 100% convinced by Tuesday that an invasion was coming. Then, higher oil prices induce a direct contractionary effect via supply shock, and a tighter monetary policy. (WTI is now bumping around $100/bbl).Economists in the survey raised their estimates of inflation, as noted in the FT article describing the survey results; my estimate went up because of the persistence of inflation above and beyond what I’d anticipated; but it also went up given elevated oil prices.

Six High Frequency Indicators for the Economy -- These indicators are mostly for travel and entertainment. There was a clear negative impact from the omicron variant of COVID that is starting to ease. The TSA is providing daily travel numbers. This data is as of February 27th. This data shows the 7-day average of daily total traveler throughput from the TSA for 2019 (Light Blue), 2020 (Black), 2021 (Blue) and 2022 (Red). The 7-day average is down 8.8% from the same day in 2019 (91.2% of 2019). (Dashed line) This is the smallest decline since the start of the pandemic. Air travel declined in early 2022 (omicron / weak business travel) but has picked up (both seasonally and less COVID). The second graph shows the 7-day average of the year-over-year change in diners as tabulated by OpenTable for the US and several selected cities. This data is updated through February 26, 2022. This data is "a sample of restaurants on the OpenTable network across all channels: online reservations, phone reservations, and walk-ins. Dining was mostly moving sideways but declined during the winter wave of COVID and is now increasing. The 7-day average for the US is down 3% compared to 2019. This data shows domestic box office for each week and the median for the years 2016 through 2019 (dashed light blue). The data is from BoxOfficeMojo through February 24th. Movie ticket sales were at $134 million last week, down about 52% from the median for the week. This graph shows the seasonal pattern for the hotel occupancy rate using the four-week average. The red line is for 2022, black is 2020, blue is the median, and dashed light blue is for 2021. This data is through February 19th. The occupancy rate was down 8.4% compared to the same week in 2019. The 4-week average of the occupancy rate is below the median rate for the previous 20 years (Blue). This raph is from Apple mobility. From Apple: "This data is generated by counting the number of requests made to Apple Maps for directions in select countries/regions, sub-regions, and cities." This data is through February 24th for the United States and several selected cities. According to the Apple data directions requests, public transit in the 7-day average for the US is at 112% of the January 2020 level. Here is some interesting data on New York subway usage.. This graph shows how much MTA traffic has recovered in each borough (Graph starts at first week in January 2020 and 100 = 2019 average). Manhattan is at about 32% of normal. This data is through Friday, February 25th.

Business Cycle Indicators, March 1st -- IHS-Markit just released its monthly GDP estimate for January, with 0% growth q/q. Bloomberg consensus for February nonfarm payroll shaved down to 400K, from 450K on 2/25. Figure 1: Nonfarm payroll employment (dark blue), Bloomberg consensus for February NFP (blue +), industrial production (red), personal income excluding transfers in Ch.2012$ (green), manufacturing and trade sales in Ch.2012$ (black), consumption in Ch.2012$ (light blue), and monthly GDP in Ch.2012$ (pink), all log normalized to 2020M02=0. NBER defined recession dates, peak-to-trough, shaded gray. Source: BLS, Federal Reserve, BEA, via FRED, IHS Markit (nee Macroeconomic Advisers) (3/1/2022 release), NBER, and author’s calculations.From IHS Markit today:Monthly GDP was flat (0.0%) in January following a similar reading in December. Underlying the flat reading in January were strong cross currents, including a large increase in domestic final sales (mainly personal consumption expenditures) and declines in nonfarm inventory
investment and net exports. …IHS Markit forecasts 1% q/q growth SAAR, Goldman Sachs tracking estimate at 1.5%. GDPNow release of 3/1 (today) indicates 0% growth in Q1,

Five ways the Russian invasion of Ukraine could impact the US economy The Russian invasion of Ukraine and the unprecedented sanctions imposed in response by the U.S. and western allies have rattled the global economy and financial markets. They’ve also upended supply chains for crucial food, energy and industrial products amid a global burst of inflation, derailed global travel and driven volatility into the stock market. Oil prices skyrocketed Monday as Russia’s invasion of Ukraine entered its fifth day and the U.S. and European Union continued to ratchet up sanctions, with Brent crude topping $100 a barrel. In 2020 alone, Russia was the third-biggest supplier of foreign petroleum for the U.S., according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, and responsible for 7 percent of imported oil. Russia also exported $13 billion in mineral fuels to the U.S. in 2019, accounting for more than half of all such imports sent to America. Notably, prices are rising even though sanctions imposed on Russia have so far excluded the energy sector, a decision President Biden said he made in order “to limit the pain the American people are feeling at the gas pump.” On Monday, the national average was $3.62 a gallon and prices “will likely continue to rise as crude prices continue to climb,” according to AAA. The average U.S. gas price was about $2.71 one year ago, though that increase had started before Russia began massing troops at its border with Ukraine. The Journal reported that the U.S. and other major oil-consuming countries were weighing the release of 70 million barrels of oil from emergency stockpiles in response to the rising crude prices. Supply chain issues for farmers could drive higher food prices Farmers in the U.S. are bracing for a hike in the price of fertilizer, which was already at a record-high before the conflict. Russia — which is a low-cost, high-volume global producer of fertilizers — is the world’s second-largest producer after Canada of potash, a key nutrient used on major commodity crops and produce, according to Bloomberg. Even before the Russia-Ukraine crisis reached a boiling point, the Iowa Capital Dispatch reported that farmers in the United States are likely to plant less corn and use less nitrogen fertilizer on their fields for next year’s growing season due to sky-high fertilizer prices and short supplies. Ukraine has closed its airspace and an increasing number of airlines canceled flights in an out of Russia. A number of countries, as well as the EU, have closed their airspace to Russian carriers. “We've already seen a tit-for-tat between the U.K. and Russia in terms of closing airspace, and the FAA has restricted commercial aircraft from flying over Ukraine, Belarus and parts of western Russia. These restrictions, if they hold or are expanded, have the potential to drive fares to the Middle East, Africa and Asia higher,” Even those traveling far outside the conflict zone could be affected. “The crisis is bound to contribute to already high oil prices. Jet fuel is one of an airline's biggest expenses, so it follows that persistently high fuel costs might be reflected in slightly higher fares,”

Biden approval near record low amid economic frustration: poll -- President Biden’s approval rating hit a near-record low in a new poll as Americans become increasingly frustrated with the economy. The poll, from ABC News and The Washington Post, found that 37 percent of adults in the U.S. strongly or somewhat approve of the way Biden is handling his job as president, compared to 55 percent who said they strongly or somewhat disapprove. Seven percent said they had no opinion. The approval is a 4-point drop from November, when ABC News and the Post found that Biden had a 41 percent approval rating among adults in the U.S. The rating, however, is not the president's lowest — a Quinnipiac University poll of U.S. adults conducted last month found the president had a 33 percent approval rating. February's approval rating comes as Americans are grappling with economic frustrations, with consumer prices increasing 7.5 annually at the end of January, the fastest rate since February 1982. Inflation in the U.S. has been elevated since the middle of last year, when the economy began rebounding from the COVID-19 slump, driving prices up. Thirty-seven percent of American adults polled said they approve of the way Biden is handling the economy, compared to 58 percent who said they disapprove. Five percent said they had no opinion. Fifty-four percent of respondents said they trust Republicans to do a better job at handling the economy, while 35 percent said the same of Democrats. Seven percent said they trusted neither, while 3 percent said they had no opinion and 1 percent said they trusted both. And on the state of the economy, only 3 percent of respondents said it is currently “excellent.” Twenty-one percent said it is “good,” 36 percent said it is “not so good” and 39 percent said it is “poor.” One percent of respondents did not have an opinion. A majority of adults say the economy got worse under Biden. Fifty-four percent of those polled said the economy has gotten somewhat or much worse since Biden took office, while only 17 percent said it has gotten much or somewhat better. Twenty-seven percent of respondents said it has remained the same, with 1 percent saying they had no opinion

 Bread-and-butter pitch on 'Build Back' fails to woo Manchin - -- President Biden’s attempt to reframe the “Build Back Better Act” in basic economic terms won praise from most Democrats last night, but the State of the Union address did little to convince Sen. Joe Manchin to support the stalled climate and social spending legislation. The Senate Energy and Natural Resources chair, who withdrew his support for the $1.7 trillion bill in December, seemed little-moved last night at Biden’s entreaties. Instead, he cited inflation concerns, geopolitical unrest and pandemic relief, all of which are familiar refrains in his rebuttals to any additional federal spending. “It doesn’t surprise me, every time they talk, they talk about that,” Manchin (D-W.Va.) said of the references to elements of the “Build Back Better” plan in the president’s speech. The president outlined the legislation without actually using the term “Build Back Better,” emphasizing the benefits of energy tax incentives and electric vehicles to Americans struggling with inflation and high energy prices. Combating climate change, Biden said, could “cut energy costs for families an average of $500 a year.” But the outstanding question is whether Biden and Democratic congressional leaders can persuade Manchin that a massive spending bill is the way to address his concerns about inflation, particularly amid the ongoing war in Ukraine. “But what we should do is basically fix the tax code,” Manchin told reporters. “That’s the one thing everyone can agree on.” Advocates have looked for signs of life in Manchin’s willingness to reengage in negotiations. But Manchin, who sat with Republican Senate colleagues last night, said after the speech he has not had any new talks with the White House about how to resurrect some of the provisions contained in the stalled reconciliation package. As to whether Biden’s speech could mark a restart moment for the bill, Manchin remained noncommittal. “They control it,” he said. “We’ll see what happens.” Other Democrats were still hoping Biden’s framing during the speech might breathe some life into the effort. Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) said following the speech that the focus on beating back increasing costs and inflation should be a major takeaway from Biden’s remarks. “This is what the American people care about,” Schumer told reporters. “It was a bread-and-butter speech on the domestic side and a great patriotic speech.”

Manchin proposes dramatically scaled down version of Build Back Better - Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.), who torpedoed President Biden’s Build Back Better agenda at the end of last year, on Wednesday laid out a dramatically scaled down version that he says he could vote for under the special budget reconciliation process. Manchin said he could support a reconciliation package that reforms the tax code and lowers the cost of prescription drugs if the money raised is split between spending on new climate change proposals and deficit reduction and fighting inflation. The West Virginia senator clarified he hasn’t made any formal counterproposal to the White House but is sketching the outlines of a proposal that he could support along with the rest of the Senate Democratic Caucus. Whatever Manchin ultimately agrees to would have a different name than the Build Back Better Act, which he said in December he couldn't support. “There’s not a proposal, there’s just a conversation,” he said of informal talks with White House officials. “It just makes all the sense in the world. The one thing that we as Democrats all agreed on was the 2017 tax cuts were weighted unfairly. So if you want to fix the tax cuts and make everyone pay their fair share, whether it’s the very wealthiest or the corporations that pay nothing — I think the president identified that last night — then you have to fix the tax code,” he said. “Then you find out what revenues you have from that if you fix it,” he added. Manchin also said there is broad agreement among Democrats on passing legislation to reduce the cost of prescription drugs and suggested that modeling a program on what the Department of Veterans Affairs does to negotiate lower prices for military veterans would be a good idea. “The other thing that we should all agree on is the high pharmaceutical prices, so you allow the negotiations. And I just said the organization that does the best job is the VA, the veterans administration gets some of the lowest prices. Maybe we should look at them and let them basically do [that] for our Medicaid and Medicare [recipients],” he said. Manchin says half of the revenue raised from tax reform and prescription drug reform should be used to lower the deficit and fight inflation and the other half should be spent on whatever 10-year program has the most support in the Democratic caucus. He suggested spending on an array of initiatives to fight climate change would likely unify his Democratic colleagues. “Half of that money should be dedicated to fighting inflation and reducing the deficit,” he said. “The other half you can pick for a 10-year program, whatever you think is the highest priority and right now it seems to be the environment — and that’s a pretty costly one — would take care of it.”

Dems agonize over Manchin's wish list: Taxes, prescription drugs, climate cash - Joe Manchin is once again setting the agenda for Democrats and says he’s willing to make a deal. They’re listening — cautiously. Hours after President Joe Biden laid out what he hoped to salvage from Democrats’ defunct “Build Back Better” social spending plan, Joe Manchin quickly assembled a counteroffer. It might amount to deja vu for Democrats, many of whom still feel burned from last year’s debacle, yet many in the party are willing to entertain any shot they have to unify while they still have control of Congress. “Here’s the thing. I’ve always been open to talking to people okay? But they just don’t want to hear,” Manchin said in a Wednesday interview.The West Virginia centrist laid out a basic party-line package that could win his vote in the interview, to lower the deficit and enact some new programs — provided they are permanently funded. It may be Democrats’ best and last chance to get at least some of their major domestic priorities done before the midterm election, even as some leading liberals acknowledged any potential deal would not come close to the $1.7 trillion package Manchin spurned in December. Manchin said that if Democrats want to cut a deal on a party-line bill using the budget process to circumvent a Republican filibuster, they need to start with prescription drug savings and tax reform. He envisions whatever revenue they can wring out of that as split evenly between reducing the federal deficit and inflation, on the one hand, and enacting new climate and social programs, on the other — “to the point where it’s sustainable.” “If you do that, the revenue producing [measures] would be taxes and drugs. The spending is going to be climate,” Manchin said. “And the social issues, we basically have to deal with those” with any money that’s left, he added. As far as whether he thinks his party finally understands his parameters for joining the talks, he said that Democrats “know where I am. They just basically think that I’m going to change.” Negotiating with Manchin isn’t exactly Democrats’ favorite topic after nearly a year of back and forth. Asked about whether he can envision a passable deal, Sen. Mark Warner (D-Va.) responded: “I was hoping you would were going to, like, ask me to expound about Ukraine.”

 Biden: Public shouldn't worry about nuclear war with Russia --President Biden said Monday he does not believe Americans have reason to be concerned about nuclear war amid tensions with Russia over its invasion of Ukraine. Biden responded to the question with a short "no" after delivering remarks at a Black History Month event at the White House. Russian President Vladimir Putin on Sunday put his country's deterrence forces, including nuclear arms, on high alert as Western nations ramped up sanctions over the Russian invasion of Ukraine. The Biden administration has largely responded by avoiding further inflaming tensions, calling Putin's action an attempt to justify further aggression. It did not put its nuclear forces on higher alert in response. "This is really a pattern that we've seen from President Putin through the course of this conflict, which is manufacturing threats that don't exist in order to justify further aggression — and the global community and the American people should look at it through that prism," White House press secretary Jen Psaki said on ABC on Sunday.

 Biden: US Will Close American Airspace to All Russian Flights, Aircraft - Russian flights will no longer be permitted in American air space as the US continues to take aggressive actions to counter Moscow's recent military actions in Ukraine, Biden announced during his SOTU.“We will join our allies in closing off American air space to all Russian flights–further isolating Russia–and adding an additional squeeze–on their economy," he announced, touting losses in Russian stocks and a decline in value for the Russian ruble.The US Department of Transportation and Federal Aviation Administration have since specified that orders blocking Russian aircraft and airlines from entering and using American airspace will take effect by the end of Wednesday.The directive applies to all aircraft owned, certified, operated, registered, chartered, leased, or controlled by (or for the benefit of) any Russian citizen. Passenger and cargo planes are among the flights prohibited, "effectively closing U.S. air space to all Russian commercial air carriers and other Russian civil aircraft," the memo detailed."He has no idea what's coming," Biden said of Putin, claiming the Russian economy is "reeling" due to Putin alone. The US president clarified that American forces will not be engaging in armed conflict within Ukraine, as they are stationed in Europe to provide assistance to NATO allies. US forces would only take up arms if NATO allies were attacked by Russian forces pushing further west, Biden said.

US expelling Russian diplomats from UN mission in New York --The United States has announced plans to expel 12 Russian diplomats from Moscow’s mission to the United Nations in New York, accusing the officials of engaging in “espionage activities”.In a statement on Monday, the US mission to the UN said it had started the process of expelling the diplomats – whom it described as “intelligence operatives” – for “engaging in espionage activities that are adverse to our national security”.“We are taking this action in accordance with the UN Headquarters Agreement. This action has been in development for several months,” the statement read.The move comes amid widespread international condemnation of Russia over its invasion of Ukraine, which since last Thursday has left more than 100 Ukrainian civilians dead and forced half a million others to flee the country, according to the UN.Russia’s UN Ambassador Vassily Nebenzia told reporters the diplomats had been asked to leave by March 7.Nebenzia then raised the issue at the start of a UN Security Council meeting on the humanitarian situation in Ukraine, describing the US move as “hostile” and a violation of its commitments as host of the UN headquarters in New York City.US Deputy UN Ambassador Richard Mills responded: “Those diplomats that have been asked to leave the United States were engaged in activities that were not in accordance with their responsibilities and obligations as diplomats.”US President Joe Biden’s administration has imposed a slew of sanctions against Russia in response to the country’s invasion of Ukraine, which began last Thursday.The US and its allies, including the European Union, last week also announced plans to sanction Russian President Vladimir Putin and Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov over the country’s attack on its neighbour.The number of people fleeing the invasion has surged to more than half a million, the UN High Commissioner for Refugees Filippo Grandi said earlier on Monday, while at least 102 civilians have been killed since Russian troops entered the country.

CODEPINK Says Stop the War in Ukraine. Russian Troops Out. No NATO Expansion - by Medea Benjamin, cofounder of CODEPINK for Peace, - CODEPINK strongly condemns Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, where over 350,000 civilians have fled the country in fear of explosive weapons and missile attacks, while remaining residents from eastern to western Ukraine seek refuge in underground subways and bomb shelters. As an international peace organization, we call for an immediate ceasefire, negotiations without preconditions, withdrawal of Russian troops from Ukraine, an end to NATO expansion and a return to the negotiating table to address the security interests of all stakeholders. We stand in solidarity with the Ukrainian people under vicious attack and with the thousands of courageous Russian anti-war activists risking arrest and imprisonment to protest in the streets of Moscow and St. Petersburg.There is no military solution to the conflict over Ukraine, a country caught in the crossfire between the United States and Russia, the world’s two most heavily armed nuclear nations. While we denounce Putin’s reckless veiled threat to launch nuclear weapons against NATO countries, we also recognize the United States government is culpable in the proliferation and deployment of nuclear weapons, and must reverse course on its decision to pursue nuclear rearmament and instead advance verifiable agreements for global nuclear disarmament.In condemning Putin’s invasion of a sovereign country, the shelling of a Ukrainian hospital, the tanks closing in on kyiv, we understand the U.S. has played a major role in exacerbating this conflict, facilitating a 2014 coup to overthrow the democratically elected leader of Ukraine and breaking promises not to expand NATO into Eastern Europe, where offensive missiles in Romania and Poland could reach Russia in minutes.Though some will argue NATO is a defensive alliance of 30 countries, we view NATO as a threat to world peace with its military encirclement of Russia and support for U.S. military aggression in Kosovo, Afghanistan, Iraq and Libya, where an estimated million died under a rain of bombs and millions more were displaced. NATO’s aggressive stance on China, another nuclear-armed nation, also threatens world peace and efforts to unite in the face of existential climate catastrophe.In advance of the NATO summit in June, CODEPINK calls for an international security agreement to protect the interests of all Europeans to remain free from war and occupation. Such an agreement should have been forged after the fall of the Soviet Union and dissolution of the Warsaw Pact; instead the U.S. and NATO sought further militarization in a continuance of the Cold War that spawned multiple hot wars, from Korea to Vietnam.To prevent further fighting in Ukraine, to stop the loss of life, bloodshed and grave environmental degradation from the bombing of munitions plants, let us return to the 2015 Minsk II agreement that established a blueprint for peace and an end to the civil war rocking eastern Ukraine. Ukraine should be a neutral country; its incorporation into NATO should be off the table as a starting point for diplomacy.

Trump calls the Russian invasion 'a holocaust,' urges Russia to stop fighting --Former President Trump called the Russian invasion into Ukraine “a holocaust” and urged Russia to stop fighting, a large shift in tone since last week when the former president praised Russian President Vladimir Putin.Trump's remarks came during a Wednesday interview with Fox Business host Maria Bartiromo, widely seen as a Trump ally.The former president said Russia has "to stop killing these people" and suggested a deal could be worked out to end the conflict.His remarks were a part of a wide-ranging interview, which included criticism of the Biden administration's handling of the Russia-Ukraine crisis, which served as the opening note to President Biden's State of the Union address on Tuesday night.After Trump said that "something could be done with [Russia] right now," Bartiromo asked him "what's the solution."“Well, you have to work out a deal. They have to stop killing these people," Trump answered. "They're killing all of these people, and they have to stop it, and they have to stop it now.“But they don't respect the United States and the United States is like, I don't know, they’re not doing anything about it. This is a — this is a holocaust. This is a horrible thing that's happening. You're witnessing and you're seeing it on television every night.”Trump has repeatedly put out statements saying the conflict would never have happened if he was still president. The former president has often complimented Putin, and held a widely criticized summit with the Russian leader in Helsinki during his presidency where he said he believed Russia had not interfered in U.S. elections.Just last week, Trump praised Putin as “smart” and “pretty savvy” forrecognizing two breakaway regions in Ukraine as independent, a precursor to the invasion.Trump also won the Conservative Political Action Conference straw poll for president last weekend amid the Russian invasion, underscoring his status as the favorite to win his party's presidential nomination for 2024. During the interview, Trump hesitated to say whether he believed Ukraine should be afforded membership into the NATO military alliance, saying it is a decision that's going to have to be made.Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky on Tuesday called for his country to be admitted."Right now, it would be a lot easier to say yes than it would have been six months ago," Trump said of the possibility.

China issues report on U.S. human rights violations - People's Daily Online -- China's State Council Information Office on Monday issued the Report on Human Rights Violations in the United States in 2021. The report said the human rights situation in the United States, which has notorious records, worsened in 2021. Its political manipulation led to a sharp surge in COVID-19 deaths while shooting deaths in the country hit a new record. Fake democracy trampled on people's political rights and violent law enforcement made life harder for migrants and refugees in the United States, it said. The report also highlighted the country's growing discrimination against ethnic minority groups, especially people of Asian descent. Unilateral U.S. actions created new humanitarian crises across the globe, it added.

1Full text: The Report on Human Rights Violations in the United States in 2021 - (Xinhua) -- China on Monday issued "The Report on Human Rights Violations in the United States in 2021." Following is the full text of the report:

Disinformation on China in full bloom in US - People's Daily Online - As if the supply of anti-China disinformation has exceeded the demand in the US, the American government decided to blow federal money to export it. On February 4, the US House of Representatives greenlighted the America COMPETES Act, in which a sum of 500 million dollars was allotted to "produce journalism for overseas audiences that is critical of China," according to American Prospect, a US-based magazine. The move appears to be dangerous and desperate but not at all unforeseeable. It just marks a crescendo of the US' unrelenting and undisguised smear campaign against China. For years, the US has concocted piles of erroneous reports and made numerous groundless accusations. Negative coverage of China, at the tip of its disinformation iceberg, is merely news—it's a 24/7, all-season regular program that takes bias and negativity as its unchanging formula. To better understand the nature of America's slanted portraits of China, let's dig deep into the different tones and rhetoric recently adopted by US politicians and media outlets when it comes to similar issues.Take the "Freedom Convoy" protest in Canada first. As a convoy of angry truckers crammed onto the roadway to blockade a key US-Canada border bridge and occupied the city center of Ottawa, this was what media from its neighboring country had to say: "By illegally occupying streets in downtown Ottawa, it has upended daily life in a city of 1 million people," a Washington Post editorial wrote. CNN cited a portfolio of polls and pinpointed that "a strong majority of Canadians oppose convoy protests." But bear in mind that roughly three years ago, when rioters jammed onto the main streets of China's Hong Kong, a city that is home to over 7 million people, vandalizing public facilities and wreaking havoc on the entire society, the same American media outlets joined forces to justify the barbaric riots as "peaceful protests," in total disregard of the daily life of Hong Kong residents (or did they really care?).Another moment of American-style hypocrisy manifested itself when Amnesty International published an "apartheid" report on February 1. A report that is written by several "experts" and published by a "famed" international organization— should such a publication contain anything critical of China, the US media will go full steam ahead to manufacture thousands of pages of "convictions". But this time around the subject matter in that report is focused on Israel—one of America's closest allies. This article will not discuss the authoritativeness of that report. But just let's have a look at how the US side has since reacted. Following the release of the report, dozens of US legislators slammed it as "biased," "baseless" or "racist." The Wall Street Journal penned a lengthy editorial to denounce the report as "slander" and a distortion of history, while the New York Times, which has been vocal on the issue and adept at citing such reports, didn't publish a single word on the report. However, such indignation and "self-censorship" only happen when US allies are involved. Bias and bigotry have reached their peak in American media's slanted coverage of COVID-19. From the efficacy of China's COVID-19 vaccines to the effectiveness of China's epidemic control methods—never minding the lab leak conspiracy these people fabricated to frame up China in vain—they appear to have willfully set aside what little ethics they have and all of their objectivity when covering any issues pertaining to China. Every time China has achieved a milestone in its vaccination drive or donated a batch of its vaccines, the America-first media squad never once forgot to mention that Made-in-China vaccines are "inferior" or that China's vaccine donations were tantamount to nothing more than "vaccine diplomacy." But when COVID-19 cases and hospitalization rates kept climbing on American soil even among previously vaccinated people, they blamed it on breakthrough cases. Through their gloomy lens, China's zero-COVID-19 strategy seems like a mess; and a dozen cases in China appear to be "destructive." Even when China kept infections at bay while holding the Beijing 2022 Winter Olympic Games during a global PANDEMIC, the US media peddlers somehow managed to lend their criticism: the Games, they said, were "joyless."

Biden dispatches military-national security delegation to Taiwan - Even as the US conflict with Russia over the Ukraine intensifies, the Biden administration has deliberately stoked tensions with China by sending a delegation of former top-level US military and national security officials to Taiwan. The timing of the trip underscores its provocative character. It coincides with the passage of 50 years since former President Richard Nixon travelled to China and met with Chinese leader Mao Zedong in 1972, laying the basis for the establishment of diplomatic relations between the two countries. Half a century on, the US is engaged in a dangerous confrontation with China. When Washington subsequently established formal diplomatic relations with Beijing in 1978, it cut diplomatic relations with Taipei, removed all military forces from the island and downgraded contact with Taiwanese officials. De facto, the US recognised the “One China” policy that Beijing is the legitimate government of all China, including Taiwan. Biden, following on from Trump, has systematically undermined these longstanding diplomatic protocols and strengthened relations with Taipei. In the final days of the Trump administration, US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo ended all restrictions on official contact between Washington and Taipei—an abrupt diplomatic shift that Biden has upheld with minor changes. Last year, a leak to the media revealed for the first time that the US military had Special Forces trainers on Taiwan—a fact that was confirmed by Taiwanese officials. While the current delegation stopped short of including serving US generals and officials, its make-up is an open declaration that the US will bolster its military ties with Taiwan—an island that it acknowledges is part of China. Last year, Biden dispatched a US delegation to Taiwan led by former Senator Chris Dodd, but it included former State Department officials, not retired military and national security personnel. Included in the delegation that landed in Taipei yesterday is the former chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff, Michael Mullen, who served between 2007 and 2011 under presidents Bush and Obama.

The lies and absurdities in Biden’s State of the Union address -If anyone tuned in to Joe Biden’s State of the Union address still expecting to hear a serious speech about any of the metastasizing and intersecting crises confronting United States and the world, they would have left disappointed. Biden’s speech was a vulgar attempt to paper over an immense domestic crisis by presenting the US as internally united against one man: Vladimir Putin. In an earlier period, when the United States occupied the position of a rising capitalist power, its politicians at least felt an obligation to keep the population somewhat informed about what was taking place. Biden’s speech, however, included no serious commentary about any of the most pressing issues confronting the country and the world. It was a tale told by an idiot, full of sound and fury, signifying the remarkably low intellectual level of the individuals running the US government.The speech was so contradictory as to border on the politically absurd. Biden proclaimed America was united as National Guard soldiers protected the Capitol building from the threat of right-wing demonstrations. He said the United States was defending democracy against dictatorship abroad as the 150 Republicans who attempted to establish a dictatorship at home stood and applauded. He called for peace and diplomacy while warning Putin he would “pay a price” and that the US would “inflict pain” on Russia. Biden attempted to blame Vladimir Putin for the ills afflicting the American population. Gas prices are going up because of Vladimir Putin. Democracy is under threat from the international machinations of Vladimir Putin. America’s domestic divisions are exacerbated by misinformation emanating from the evil mind of Vladimir Putin. “Putin alone is the one to blame.” One does not have to sympathize with Putin’s reactionary and dangerous invasion of Ukraine to understand these claims as self-serving and false.Biden touted the “bipartisan efforts” of Congress and said Putin had mistakenly believed the United States was divided. Putin “thought the West and NATO wouldn’t respond” to the invasion of Ukraine. “He thought he could divide us at home, in this chamber and in this nation. He thought he could divide us in Europe as well. But Putin was wrong. We are ready. We are united, and that’s what we did. We stayed united.” The United States was fighting for “lightness over darkness” in eastern Europe, Biden said, echoing George W. Bush’s proclamation that his administration’s murderous wars were justified by the need to confront an “axis of evil.” But for all his efforts to present the US as unified, Biden was forced to admit that America was riven by massive levels of inequality and unprecedented internal division. There are “so many families that are living paycheck to paycheck, struggling to keep up with the rising cost of food, gas, housing and so much more,” Biden said, also referencing the extreme cost of health care and child care. He acknowledged that tens of millions of Americans suffer from drug and alcohol abuse, that the country confronts a “mental health” crisis due to overwork and stress.To address those divisions that do exist, Biden presented what he called his “unity agenda for the nation,” which rests on several magical formulas. Biden will help corporations profit by raising the wages of workers, he said. He will protect civil liberties by increasing funding for the police. He will respect the rights of immigrants by securing the border. He will cut the deficit by expanding social programs. Every Democrat in the audience knew that the legislative proposals Biden laid out in his speech were already dead in the water. Members of his own party in the Senate blocked his bills that would moderately expand the right to vote. While Biden called for expanding the child income tax credit and spending for community colleges, he failed to mention that his own administration and Senate Democrats cut these programs from the infrastructure bill passed last year.

Rashida Tlaib gives “progressive” response to State of the Union: Full support for US–NATO war against Russia - Following President Joe Biden’s State of the Union (SOTU) address Tuesday evening, Michigan Democratic Representative Rashida Tlalib, a member of the Democratic Socialists of America (DSA), delivered a speech backing the US/NATO war drive against Russia while attempting to give a “progressive” gloss to the Biden administration’s right-wing domestic policies. Prior to her speech, billed in advance as a “progressive rebuttal” to Biden’s State of the Union address, Tlaib was denounced by “centrist” Democratic Representative Josh Gottheimer of New Jersey, who told Axios that the very act of offering a televised response to Biden was akin to “keying your own car and slashing your own tires.” Rep. Filemon Vela of Texas joined in, telling Axios, “In times of crisis, we should all stand by our president.” In the event, they had nothing to worry about. Far from attacking Biden for breaking his campaign promises of social reform, a science-based response to the COVID-19 pandemic, and the defense of democratic rights against Trump’s fascistic Republican Party, Tlaib promoted Biden’s stripped-down and already dead “Build Back Better” spending plan. She said nothing of his drive to reopen schools and businesses and end all public health restrictions, which has led to over 500,000 COVID deaths since he came to office. This was of a piece with her full support for the US/NATO military, economic and diplomatic offensive against Russia, using Ukraine as bait to set a trap for the right-wing nationalist Putin regime—a conflict in the heart of Europe that threatens to unleash global nuclear war. Tlaib declared, “Over the past few days we have watched in horror as Russia launched an illegal and unjustifiable invasion of Ukraine.” Russia’s action is indeed illegal and unjustifiable, but not unprovoked. Tlaib said nothing about the tens of thousands of US and NATO troops, ships and planes deployed to Russia’s borders in the preceding months, not to mention the eastward expansion of NATO to Russia’s doorstep in the aftermath of the 1991 dissolution of the Soviet Union, nor the series of US-led wars of aggression in the Middle East, Central Asia, north Africa, and the former Yugoslavia that killed millions and destroyed entire societies.Tlaib said nothing about the disastrous economic and social consequences for workers in the US of the war measures being imposed against Russia. Gasoline and natural gas prices are already exploding, accelerating price rises for all basic commodities. The already inadequate wage increases imposed on workers by the corporatist trade unions are being eclipsed by inflation, resulting in a sharp decline in real wages.

Biden weighing sanctions on India over Russian military stockpiles - The Biden administration is weighing whether to impose sanctions against India over its stockpile of and reliance on Russian military equipment as part of the wide-ranging consequences the West is seeking to impose on Moscow over its invasion of Ukraine. Donald Lu, the assistant secretary of State for South Asian affairs, on Thursday told lawmakers in a hearing that the administration is weighing how threatening India's historically close military relationship with Russia is to U.S. security.“It’s a question we’re looking at very closely, as the administration is looking at the broader question over whether to apply sanctions under CAATSA or to waive those sanctions,” Lu said. The Countering American Adversaries Through Sanctions Act, passed in 2017 in the wake of the Kremlin’s interference in U.S. elections, includes the authority to sanction transactions with Russian defense or intelligence sectors. The law includes waiver authority for the president that was used for Turkey, an ally in NATO, until December 2020 when the Trump administration imposed sanctions under the law for Ankara’s purchase of the Russian S400 missile defense system. In 2016, India was named a “Major Defense Partner” with the U.S., a unique designation that serves to elevate defense trade and technology. Defense contracts between the U.S. and India are said to have amounted to $20 billion since 2008. Lu told lawmakers that the administration is “in the process of trying to understand whether defense technology that we are sharing with India today can be adequately safeguarded given India’s historical relationship with Russia and its defense sales.”

Yellen says U.S. will address potential gaps in Russia sanctions (Reuters) - The United States will address potential gaps in tough sanctions imposed on Russia over its invasion of Ukraine, U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said on Wednesday, adding the measures would "continue to bite." Yellen said financial sanctions on the Russian central bank, commercial banks and members of the country's wealthy elite were having a significant impact, as demonstrated by the rouble's sharp fall. "Russia is increasingly an economic island," she said at the University of Illinois-Chicago after visiting Chicago's Ukrainian Village neighborhood. "We will continue to look at how the sanctions work and whether there are leakages and we have the possibility to address them." Asked whether sanctions to curb Russia's oil and gas exports could follow, she said "nothing is off the table," but added that the United States had not taken this step to spare Americans, Europeans and other people around the world from "punishing consequences." Sanctions imposed last Sunday and Monday have so far restricted 80% of the Russian banking sector's assets and "immobilized" about half of the Russian central bank's assets, she said. The rouble, which has lost about a third of its value since the start of the year, touched a fresh record low of 110 to the dollar in Moscow on Wednesday as the country's financial system teetered under the weight of Western sanctions. Russia calls its actions in Ukraine a "special operation" that is not designed to occupy territory but to destroy its neighbour's military capabilities. The former chair of the U.S. Federal Reserve said she knew there were concerns about members of Russia's elite using cryptocurrencies as a possible means to evade sanctions, but noted there were anti-money laundering laws in place to prevent that from happening. "That is a channel to be watched," she said. "But ... many participants in the cryptocurrency networks are subject to anti-money-laundering (laws) and sanctions. So it's not that that sector is completely one where things can be evaded." Yellen said she does not expect the sanctions on Russia to have a major impact on the economic trajectory of the United States, due to limited U.S. trade and financial connections with Russia. Their effects will most likely be transmitted through higher energy prices, she said, adding that Biden was seeking to keep the United States well-supplied with oil.

U.S. looking at cutting its consumption of Russian oil -White House official (Reuters) - The Biden administration is considering ways to reduce U.S. consumption of Russian oil to punish Moscow over its invasion of Ukraine, White House Deputy National Security Adviser Daleep Singh said on Wednesday. "We are looking at ways to cut U.S. consumption of Russian oil while still maintaining the global supply of energy," Singh told CNN in an interview.

War scrambles U.S. energy from oil to nuclear - The Biden administration moved to restrict energy technology exports linked to Russia yesterday as fallout from the war in Ukraine widens and U.S. and European companies are forced to make high-stakes decisions about their assets. The invasion by Russia has spurred oil supermajors to back out of deals and created questions about uranium supplies for nuclear power plants. When asked if he would consider banning imports of Russian oil yesterday, President Biden said “nothing is off the table.” Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) is among those pushing a potential banThe Commerce Department will “impose restrictions on technology exports that would support Russia’s refining capacity over the long term,” according to a fact sheet from the White House. That came a day after Biden, in his first State of the Union address, said “Russia’s economy is reeling” and Russian President Vladimir Putin “alone is to blame.” Karine Jean-Pierre, White House principal deputy press secretary, told reporters aboard Air Force One yesterday that the Biden administration welcomes announcements from American companies that have decided to cut ties with Russia. “We and our allies and partners have a strong collective interest to degrade Russia’s status as a leading energy supplier over time,” Jean-Pierre said to reporters. “That’s why we’ve been talking about diversification … and that’s why we shut down Nord Stream 2.” The Nord Stream 2 pipeline was built to carry gas from Russia to Germany. The U.S. imposed sanctions on the company’s Russian owners when the war started and Germany refused to allow the pipe to begin operations. While published reports suggested a bankruptcy filing, Bloomberg reported that a website associated with Nord Stream 2 said it couldn’t “confirm the media reports” of a bankruptcy filing. U.S. and European countries have slapped economic sanctions on Russian banks and business leaders in response to the country’s invasion of Ukraine, although they’ve taken pains to avoid directly stopping Russia’s exports of oil and natural gas.Oil prices have climbed steadily since the war broke out last month, with the benchmark for U.S. crude hitting more than $110 a barrel yesterday, up from about $91 a barrel before the war started. Natural gas prices in Europe, which gets about 35 percent of its supply from Russia, have climbed more than 60 percent during the same time.Western oil companies, including Exxon Mobil Corp., have announced they’re walking away from oil and gas projects in Russia, under pressure from investors and out of concern that the sanctions could be widened to include energy development (Energywire, March 2). A State Department spokesperson told E&E News yesterday that no option is off the table when it comes to the energy sector, but that U.S. sanctions are designed to harm the Russian economy, not the U.S. economy.Also yesterday, Manchin’s office confirmed that he and Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska) are planning to file a bill that would prohibit the import of Russian crude oil, petroleum products and liquefied natural gas into the United States. POLITICO Pro first reported the news. Biden already has the authority to block imports using an executive order. A one-page draft summary of the bill shared with E&E News said the legislation declares “a national emergency with respect to Russian aggression against Ukraine and the threat to our national security, foreign policy, and economy and directs the President to the authority he has had since 1917 to prohibit imports of crude oil, petroleum, petroleum products and [liquefied natural gas] from Russia.”

Ukraine presses Biden, senators to hit Russian energy exports - Ukrainian officials are pushing the Biden administration and lawmakers on the Hill to impose sanctions on Russian oil and gas exports and cracking down further on the energy supplies that international markets are already starting to shun.Andriy Kobolyev, the former head of the country’s state-owned natural gas company, Naftogaz, said he has been meeting with U.S. senators and Biden administration officials to push for sanctions on Russian fossil fuel exports, which he asserts will be necessary to convince Russian President Vladimir Putin and those around him to halt their invasion of Ukraine. Kobolyev said he has been holding these meetings with the blessing of Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.“We are pushing for a full embargo on oil and gas from Russia to the West,” Kobolyev said in an interview.“In my experience dealing with [Putin’s] team and him personally, one of the cornerstones ... is that the energy supply is so important to the West — the collective West — that no matter what [Russians] do, they’ll always be forgiven, that Western countries will crawl back on their knees asking for their oil and gas,” he said. “If the West makes the first move and says ‘look, we are putting sanctions’ or ‘we are saying no to your gas and oil,’ that will undermine that important hypothesis that Putin personally is using to convince people around him to do completely crazy things.”A staffer for Sen. Kevin Cramer (R-N.D.) confirmed he’d met with Kobolyev but did not comment further. Sen. Pat Toomey (R-Pa.) confirmed he had met with a Ukrainian energy official. Toomey on Twitter Monday called on Biden to impose new broader sanctions on Russia’s financial sector. Kobolyev’s meetings with lawmakers come after Ukraine Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba on Tuesday criticized oil companies that had not yet completely severed ties with Russia, and he has called for an embargo on Russian energy exports. In a document seen by POLITICO that Ukrainian officials circulated to supporters, Kuleba also requested the “blocking of all assets in U.S. jurisdiction and prohibiting U.S. individuals and legal entities from carrying out any transactions with foreign legal entities and individuals involved directly or indirectly, involved in or assisting in the purchase of Russian metallurgy products and energy products.”

Bipartisan calls grow for end to Russian oil imports -A bipartisan push for the U.S. to stop importing oil from Russia is gaining steam with the introduction of two bills amid Moscow's bloody invasion of Ukraine. On Tuesday, a group of nine Republicans put forward legislation seeking to ban imports of Russian oil, as did Green New Deal champion Sen. Ed Markey (D-Mass.). Both were in agreement that the U.S. should stop bringing in Russian oil, but Republicans are pushing for increased U.S. drilling, while Markey is advocating a switch to clean energy. Both the Markey bill and the separate Republican version, led by Sen. Roger Marshall (R-Kan.), would make it illegal to import oil from Russia. “First and foremost, President Biden needs to restart America’s energy production and quit financing [Russian President] Vladimir Putin’s war on Ukraine by continuing to purchase crude oil from Russia,” Marshall said in a statement. Markey’s legislation would also require a report identifying entities involved in importing Russian oil into the U.S., their links to Putin and the formation of a strategy to prioritize clean energy instead of Russian oil. And it would require the Biden administration to issue sanctions based on the findings. “Our global addiction to oil keeps us locked into dangerous cycles of conflict and corruption, but we can choose a cleaner path to peace. By eliminating our addiction to Russian oil, we can build a pathway to a more prosperous and peaceful future, free from reliance on dirty oil and natural gas,” the Democrat said in a statement. The Biden administration may be hesitant to restrict oil imports since fuel prices — particularly at the gasoline pump — have been a politically sensitive issue. Swing vote Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) on Monday night similarly called for the end of imports of Russian oil. “If there was ever a time to be energy independent, it is now. I am calling on the Administration and industry partners to take action immediately, up to and including banning crude oil imports from Russia,” Manchin said in a statement. “To continue to ask other countries to do what we can do for ourselves in a cleaner way is hypocritical,” he added. It’s not clear whether the Biden administration will ultimately take action to cut off U.S. imports of oil, with the president saying last week that sanctions against Russia were “designed to allow energy payments to continue.”

Pelosi backs ban on Russian oil imports - Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) on Thursday threw her weight behind the growing push to ban imports of oil and gas from Russia as a next-level punishment for President Vladimir Putin's invasion of Ukraine. The Biden administration has already adopted a series of tough sanctions on Moscow in an effort to end Russia's siege, which entered its eighth day on Thursday. But the U.S. exempted gas and oil, which provides a significant percentage of the fuel used by some European allies and, to a lesser extent, the United States. Given the certainty of market disruptions, the administration is treading carefully around the issue, particularly since gas prices have already spiked across the country over the last year as part of a larger inflationary trend. Pelosi said Thursday that she doesn't want gas prices to rise any higher, but also endorsed the ban on Russian oil in no uncertain terms. "I'm all for that — ban it," Pelosi said. "Ban the oil coming from Russia."M

Bipartisan bill banning Russian oil sets up clash with White House - A growing bipartisan group of lawmakers released legislation on Thursday that would block imports of Russian oil despite President Joe Biden’s opposition to cutting off the shipments, setting up a potential standoff over how to ratchet up punishments against Moscow for its war on Ukraine. Lead co-sponsors Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.), who chairs the Energy and Natural Resources Committee, and Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska) said they would take the blame for a jump in gasoline prices that would likely follow a move to restrict supply from Russia, one of the world’s top energy producers. “If there was a poll being taken and they said, ‘Joe, would you pay 10 cents more per gallon to support the people of Ukraine and stop the support of Russia?’ I would gladly pay 10 cents more per gallon,” Manchin said at a press conference. Manchin knocked the White House for opposing the halt on imports of Russian oil based on fears it would further raise pump prices. Crude oil prices touched their highest level since 2008 early on Thursday, and the average retail gasoline price jumped 7 cents overnight to $3.73 a gallon, up $1 from a year ago. “They are so wrong,” Manchin said, calling White House Press Secretary Jen Psaki “irresponsible” for reiterating that the White House doesn’t back a ban on Russian oil. At Thursday’s White House briefing, Psaki told reporters that “we don’t have a strategic interest in reducing the global supply of energy, and that would raise prices at the gas pump for the American people.” Despite the continued White House resistance to a U.S. oil embargo, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi said this morning that she backs the growing push to ban Russian oil. “I’m all for that. Ban it,” Pelosi said.

Japan responds to nuke-sharing idea — Japan will not be seeking a nuclear weapons-sharing deal with the United States, Prime Minister Fumio Kishida said, after a former Japanese leader claimed the idea should not be considered “taboo.”Speaking to parliament on Monday, Kishida rejected a nuclear-sharing arrangement as“unacceptable,” citing Japan’s “stance of maintaining the three nonnuclear principles,” according to Kyodo News.Japan has long vowed to never produce, possess or allow other nations to bring nuclear weapons on its territory, having been the only nation in history to be attacked with atomic bombs. While it is protected under the US ‘nuclear umbrella,’ its non-nuclear status has been enshrined as a guiding principle for Japanese policy.Kishida was responding to recent remarks by former PM Shinzo Abe, who said during a Sunday interview that Japan should consider a sharing deal as an option. “It's essential to understand how the world's security is maintained, and we shouldn't treat those discussions as a taboo,” he argued, though also reiterated previous calls for the ultimate abolition of nukes altogether.In addition to the UK and France, five non-nuclear NATO members – Turkey, Germany, Italy, Belgium and the Netherlands – currently host American nuclear bombs on their soil, according to the Center for Arms Control and Non-Proliferation. Seven other NATO states provide assistance for nuclear missions through conventional air support, and all 30 members, excluding France, belong to a body to discuss nuclear policy issues, the Nuclear Planning Group.

FEMA: In Case Of Nuclear Explosion, Maintain Social Distancing And Wear A Mask - The US government has a long history of fun and interesting advice when it comes to imminent death... Now, the Federal Emergency Management Agency, or FEMA, has issued updated guidance to its "Nuclear Explosion" readiness public awareness website, which includes tips to avoid Covid! "A nuclear explosion may occur with or without a few minutes warning," reads the page, which was updated on Friday. "Fallout is most dangerous in the first few hours after the detonation when it is giving off the highest levels of radiation. It takes time for fallout to arrive back to ground level, often more than 15 minutes for areas outside of the immediate blast damage zones.FEMA recommends the following steps to prevent 'significant radiation exposure,' which include "Try to maintain a distance of at least six feet between yourself and people who are not part of your household," and "If possible, wear a mask if you're sheltering with people who are not part of your household."In case of a nuclear explosion, FEMA warns to try to keep 6 ft social distance and wear a mask for covid. You can’t make this up pic.twitter.com/LfxFX1dZoS What's more, "If you are experiencing a medical emergency, call 9-1-1 and let the operator know if you have, or think you might have, Covid-19. If you can, put on a mask before help arrives." "Many people already feel fear and anxiety about the coronavirus 2019 (COVID-19). The threat of nuclear explosion can add additional stress."Hazards related to nuclear explosions include:

• Bright FLASH can cause temporary blindness for less than a minute.
• BLAST WAVE can cause death, injury, and damage to structures several miles out from the blast.
• RADIATION can damage cells of the body. Large exposures can cause radiation sickness.
• FIRE AND HEAT can cause death, burn injuries, and damage to structures several miles out.
• ELECTROMAGNETIC PULSE (EMP) can damage electrical power equipment and electronics several miles out from the detonation and cause temporary disruptions further out.
• FALLOUT is radioactive, visible dirt and debris raining down from several miles up that can cause sickness to those who are outside.

FEMA also says you have 10 minutes after the shock wave passes to find the "nearest, best shelter location" if you're outdoors when a nuke goes off, as radiation levels are the highest immediately after the fallout arrives. But whatever you do, remember to wear your mask and practice social distancing while you hopefully avoid a painful cancerous death.

 White House ends mask mandate for vaccinated --The White House is ending a mask requirement for employees who have been fully vaccinated against COVID-19, a White House spokesman confirmed to The Hill. NBC News first reported Monday that the White House would end its mask requirement for fully-vaccinated employees beginning Tuesday. The decision came three days after the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) significantly eased its recommendations for mask use.. Under the new guidelines, over 70 percent of Americans are in an area of “low” or “medium” risk for COVID-19 transmission and do not need to wear masks.This includes Washington, D.C., where an indoor mask mandate expires on Tuesday. Prior to the announcement, the Biden administration had been under pressure from governors and some in the public health community to release updated mask guidance, as coronavirus cases fell and the omicron wave subsided. A number of governors, both Republican and Democratic, have moved to end mask mandates for businesses or other gathering spaces, like schools, in recent weeks as COVID-19 cases have declined. The White House’s move follows similar actions in Washington. The U.S. Capitol’s attending physician said Sunday that masks would be optional in the halls of Congress beginning Monday. President Biden is set to deliver his first State of the Union address on Tuesday. The address will give him the opportunity to chart a path forward for the public out of the pandemic, at a time when Americans are frustrated by the lingering impacts of the virus and seeking a return to some form of normal life. It was not immediately clear whether the White House would also instruct federal agencies to lift indoor mask requirements for federal workers and contractors.

New CDC Covid Guidance Caves to Great Barrington, Is Not Science-Based, Finagles the Metrics, and Destroys Masking as a Public Health Measure (Just in Time for the SOTU) By Lambert Strether On February 25, CDC dropped an enormous number of documents. One was new guidance on Covid-19 that rejiggered the metrics for determining one’s personal risk of Covid, leading to leads like this from AP:Most Americans live in places where healthy people, including students in schools, can safely take a break from wearing masks under new U.S. guidelines released Friday.But which document? Just for grins, here’s the complete dump: Nowhere does CDC say that “COViD-19 Community Levels” is the hub document for many others, so it’s unsurprising that most news coverage of the drop never linked to it, and AP got it wrong. (They linked to “COVID-19 by County,” which CDC calls a “tool,” and is in any case not the hub). Science communcation at its finest from CDC, as we have come to expect. Since I’d probably stroke out if I did a deep dive, I’m going to keep my commentary at a high — even simplistic — level, but don’t worry; the high level is sufficiently bad to be very bad, and even the most simple-minded will be able to grasp what’s wrong. If you want to grab a shovel and look for a pony, these are the documents from the drop I will be using:

1. 1) COVID-19 Community Levels (“Community Levels”)
2. 2) People with Certain Medical Conditions (“Medical Conditions”)
3. 3) Transcript for CDC Media Telebriefing: Update on COVID-19 (“Transcript”)
4. 4) “Indicators for Monitoring COVID-19 Community Levels and COVID-19 and Implementing COVID-19 Prevention Strategies” (PDF) “Indicators”)[1]
5. 5) Summary of Guidance Review, from 2021 (“Guidance Review”)

Now let’s consider the morality of the CDC’s new guidance, whether it’s based on science, whether it’s dangerous to the public, and its effect on masking as a public health tool. Quoting the Great Barrington Declaration (GBD, or, in the vulgate, “Let ‘er rip!”): The most compassionate approach that balances the risks and benefits of reaching herd immunity, is to allow those who are at minimal risk of death to live their lives normally to build up immunity to the virus through natural infection, while better protecting those who are at highest risk. We call this Focused Protection. Those who are not vulnerable should immediately be allowed to resume life as normal. Simple hygiene measures, such as hand washing and staying home when sick should be practiced by everyone to reduce the herd immunity threshold. (Nothing on ventilation, naturally, since GBD is an ideological document, not a medical or scientific one.) Now, here’s Walensky in “Transcript“:Now, as the virus continues to circulate in our communities, we must focus our metrics beyond just cases in the community and direct our efforts toward protecting people at high risk for severe illness and preventing COVID 19 from overwhelming our hospitals and our healthcare systems. This new framework moves beyond just looking at cases and test positivity to evaluate factors that reflect the severity of disease, including hospitalizations and hospital capacity, and helps to determine whether the level of COVID 19 and severe disease are low, medium, or high in a community. I don’t see a difference. Walensky is recommending “Focused Protection.” It looks to me like CDC has now gone ahead with “focused protection” by implementing GBD’s handwaving “comprehensive and detailed list of measures.” (This is ironic because the exceptionally nimble and flexible Walensky signed the “John Snow Declaration” opposing GBD in 2021.) It is perhaps needless to say that GBD caused controversy when released (leaving aside its support for herd immunity, which CDC is certainly treating as if it existed for respiratory viruses and can be achieved). Here two of its several weaknesses from The Conversation. First:

 House lifting mask mandate ahead of State of The Union address - The House is lifting its mask mandate ahead of President Biden’s State of the Union address this week, making mask wearing optional throughout the Capitol complex. In a letter on Sunday, Capitol Physician Brian Monahan shared the changes with lawmakers returning to Washington this week. "Individuals may choose to mask at any time, but it is no longer a requirement," he wrote. Monahan said positive COVID-19 test rates at the Capitol are down to 2.7 percent in the last two weeks, below the current rate for the DC-Metropolitan area (4.7 percent). The Washington, D.C. area is a 'green level,' according to Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) metrics, meaning that COVID-19 transmission is low. The CDC on Friday eased its mask recommendation for most Americans, advising that people living in communities with "low" or “medium” COVID-19 levels can go maskless. Monahan said other "coronavirus risk reduction measures" would remain in place for the State of The Union address, "with the exception that, KN95 or N95 mask wear is no longer required and mask wear is now an individual choice option.”

Nearly half of Biden's free COVID-19 tests remain unclaimed - Nearly half of the 500 million stockpiled COVID-19 tests the federal government rushed to send out in early January haven’t been claimed yet, according to a report by The Associated Press.. The White House has taken orders for 68 million packages, which all contain four tests. That means about 46 percent of the tests have yet to be snapped up as case numbers decline across the country. The White House received a rush of orders for the free tests earlier this year as the highly contagious omicron variant rushed through the country. On the first day that the White House opened its online portal to order free COVID-19 tests, it received more than 45 million orders, according to The Associated Press. The free tests were announced in January, just as the omicron variant began surging across the country, with the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) reporting 798,000 new COVID-19 cases on Jan. 15. Fast forward to Feb. 26, and data from John Hopkins University found new cases of coronavirus slightly topped 100,000, signaling a major downward trajectory of the pandemic. Back in January, Americans were scrambling to get COVID-19 rapid tests, with a surge in supply causing prices to rise from $17 all the way up to $50, according to Kaiser Family Foundation. That prompted the White House to quickly secure millions of free COVID-19 tests for Americans. Now, officials said they are getting fewer than 100,000 orders a day. The Biden administration also moved to have COVID-19 at-home tests covered by Americans’ insurance plans, with private insurers required to cover eight free rapid tests per person, per month. Medicare coverage will also begin in the spring this year. Alongside sending out free at-home rapid tests, the Biden administration also set up 20,000 free COVID-19 testing sites across the country in an effort to make testing more accessible to all Americans.

CDC Estimates 140 Million Actual US Covid Cases, Almost Double Reported Amount - A recent study by the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) has found that more than three in five Americans have been infected by SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19 - nearly twice the officially reported number.The information comes from the federal health agency’s infection-induced antibody seroprevalence surveys, which are based on blood tests collected across the country. The most recent update was posted on February 25, but only includes data through late January 2022, when the US was averaging about half a million new COVID-19 cases per day, indicating that the number is likely even higher. According to estimates based on those test results, a shocking 140 million Americans have had COVID-19, amounting to 43% of the US population. Moreover, 58% of children under the age of 17 showed SARS-CoV-2 antibodies, meaning a majority of US adolescents have gotten the disease. These numbers contrast sharply with official case numbers, which are based on tallied positive COVID-19 tests. According to that data pool, the US has seen just 78.7 million cases of the highly infectious respiratory virus.However, the data gets even more interesting. Infection rates decline in older age cohorts, with just 37% of those between the ages of 50 and 64 having had the virus, as opposed to 23% in those over the age of 65.Together, those age cohorts account for 92% of all COVID-19 deaths in the United States, despite their lower infection rates: people between the ages of 50 and 64 accounting for 18.5% of deaths and those over 65 accounting for 73.5% of deaths.Earlier this month, the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington in Seattle calculated that 73% of the US population was immune to the Omicron variant of COVID-19, a highly infectious version of the already-infectious virus that is responsible for the latest and worst outbreak in the US. They predicted that by March, that number could be 80%. A reported 945,688 Americans have died of COVID-19, according to CDC data, but that number is also a significant underestimate. A recent study published in The Economist found that worldwide excess mortality during the pandemic is between two and four times that of the 5.5 million officially recorded deaths.

Biden says 'COVID-19 no longer need control our lives' - President Biden said Tuesday that the country has reached a “new moment” in the fight against COVID-19 in which the virus “no longer need control our lives.” Biden’s first State of the Union address comes as the omicron wave has descended, governors across the country are lifting mask mandates, including in schools, and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention issued new guidance saying about 70 percent of the country is in areas where they no longer need to wear masks. “We’ve reached a new moment in the fight against COVID-19, where severe cases are down to a level not seen since July of last year,” Biden said. “Thanks to the progress we have made in the past year, COVID-19 no longer need control our lives,” he added. He cautioned, though, that the virus is not going to completely go away, a fine line for the administration to walk given the threat of a new, more dangerous variant in the future. The delta variant’s rise threw a wrench in the administration’s plans after Biden previously touted progress at the Fourth of July last year. “I know some are talking about ‘living with COVID-19,’” he said. “Tonight — I say that we never will just accept living with COVID-19. We will continue to combat the virus as we do other diseases. And because this virus mutates and spreads, we have to stay on guard.” He outlined a range of steps aimed at preparing for the future and fighting the new phase of the virus. To aid in these efforts, he said he would “soon” be sending Congress a request for more funding to fight COVID-19. Congress faces a March 11 deadline to fund the government. The administration has already informally requested $30 billion focused on domestic efforts and $5 billion for the global response, which some advocates have criticized as too small to vaccinate the world. Pointing to vaccines, treatments, tests and masks, he said, “The vast majority of Americans have used these tools and we may need them again, so I expect Congress, and I hope you'll pass that quickly.” Starting next week, even people who have already ordered their four free tests on covidtests.gov will be able to order more tests, Biden said. In addition, a new “test to treat” program will allow people to get tested at a pharmacy, and if they are positive, get treatment pills for free on the spot. With many office workers working from home for roughly two years, Biden said the country is at a point in the virus fight where that can change. “It’s time for America to get back to work and fill our great downtowns again with people,” Biden said. “People working from home can feel safe and begin to return to their offices.”

 Biden’s COVID-19 Preparedness Plan will keep schools and businesses open regardless of the death toll - During his State of the Union address, President Joe Biden made the preposterous claim, referring to the COVID-19 pandemic, “We’re leaving no one behind or ignoring anyone’s needs as we move forward!” Yet, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s (CDC) own directives leave in the lurch millions of moderately-to-severely immunocompromised people who have been told to consult with their doctors or “have a plan ready,” whatever this means. A quarter of Americans don’t have a primary-care provider, while nearly 30 million Americans are uninsured. The new CDC directives are unscientific recommendations that endanger every adult and child in America. Its worst impact will be on the lives of the 10 million immunocompromised individuals that live in the US, as well as the 54 million people over 65, many with significant comorbidities. With only 29 percent of the population having received a booster, most American adults must be considered under-vaccinated against the immune evading variants that dominate. Lastly, there are 75 million children for whom Omicron has been quite devastatingly severe. Since the end of October 2021 (four months), nearly 850 children died from COVID, accounting for 60 percent of all deaths in this age group during the entire pandemic. What Biden “forgot” to mention while hailing his administration’s record on the pandemic and promises that schools would never close again, was that vaccine effectiveness against hospitalizations for children 5 to 11 years of age declined dramatically from 100 percent to 48 percent. During the Omicron surge, the rate of infection for these children was no different than for the unvaccinated. Vaccines had no benefit in terms of protecting them against infection. Meanwhile, with Biden’s endorsement, state after state has repealed all the mask mandates in schools, even as Omicron continues at historically high levels, and as the frequency of the BA.2 sub-variant continues to climb. In tandem with the scrapping of masks, the CDC has also rescinded its mandate for universal contact tracing, meaning the tracking of cases—a tenet of public health proven effective by centuries of experience—will no longer be required at schools. These initiatives only attempt to head off any rebellion among teachers and parents by depriving them of information about the unsafe conditions that will exist in classrooms for teachers and students alike.

Surgeon general demands data on COVID-19 misinformation from major tech firms - U.S. Surgeon General Vivek Murthy has reportedly asked Big Tech companies to hand over data regarding COVID-19 misinformation, The New York Times reported on Thursday. In a formal notice, Murthy requested major tech platforms submit information about the prevalence and scale of COVID-19 misinformation on their sites, from social networks, search engines, crowdsourced platforms, e-commerce platforms and instant messaging systems. The Surgeon general last summer issued an advisory calling health misinformation an "urgent threat," and urging tech and social media platforms to redesign algorithms to reduce misinformation amplification and to bolster their monitoring of it.“It can cause confusion, sow distrust, and undermine public health efforts, including our ongoing work to end the COVID-19 pandemic," Murthy said in a statement in July. During the pandemic, COVID-19 misinformation has spread rapidly amid contentious debates over masks, vaccinations and basic public health data, including the number of deaths reported by states or federal governments. Misinformation about vaccinations took center stage earlier this year when Neil Young said he would pull his music off the music platform Spotify in protest over podcast host Joe Rogan, who had interviewed guests questioning the efficacy and safety of COVID-19 vaccines. President Biden on Wednesday unveiled a new pandemic roadmap. Part of that plan will "equip Americans with tools to identify misinformation and to invest in longer-term efforts to build resilience against health misinformation." In his notice to major tech platforms, Murthy is requesting specific information on demographics affected by misinformation as well as sources of misinformation and “exactly how many users saw or may have been exposed to instances of Covid-19 misinformation,” according to the notice reviewed by The Times. “Technology companies now have the opportunity to be open and transparent with the American people about the misinformation on their platforms,” Murthy said in a statement. “This is about protecting the nation’s health.”

 Plan to Fix Postal Service Shifts New Retirees to Medicare — Along With Billions in Costs -- A congressional effort to fix the nation’s deteriorating mail service may come at the expense of an even bigger and more complicated problem: Medicare solvency. The Postal Service Reform Act of 2022 would help shore up post office finances by ending the unusual and onerous legal requirement to fund 75 years of retirement health benefits in advance. In return, it would require future Postal Service retirees to enroll in Medicare. According to the Congressional Budget Office, the move could save the postal retirement and health programs about $5.6 billion through 2031 while adding $5.5 billion in costs to Medicare during that span, and probably much more in later years. Considering the massive size of Medicare — it spent $926 billion in 2020 — the costs don’t amount to much. That small financial impact, and the ongoing immediate crises with mail delivery, probably account for the strong bipartisan support the postal bill has received in Congress, with 120 Republicans joining Democrats to pass the bill in the House on Feb. 8. But late in the process, some lawmakers are raising alarms over the move, arguing that maybe Congress should look more carefully at the financial impact to Medicare’s trust fund, which is expected to run dry in 2026.“This bill simply shifts risk to Medicare recipients by adding billions of new costs to Medicare,” Sen. Rick Scott (R-Fla.) said Feb. 14 in blocking requests on the Senate floor to expedite passage of the bill. Scott’s objection delayed consideration of the bill until early March, after the Senate returns from its Presidents Day break. Currently, Postal Service employees are covered by plans offered in the Federal Employees Health Benefits program. When they retire they have several choices for health care, including staying in their original plan or switching to Medicare as their primary coverage and having an FEHB plan serve as supplementary coverage. About 20% of postal retirees do not sign up for Medicare, preferring their current federal plan. Under this legislation, they would have to switch to Medicare, but they would keep a new Postal Service version of the FEHB plan as secondary coverage.

GOP blocks House bill to ban race-based hair discrimination -The House fell short of passing legislation on Monday that would prohibit discrimination against people with hair styles associated with a particular race or national origin. Democrats set a vote on the bill, titled the Creating a Respectful and Open World for Natural Hair, or CROWN, Act under a fast-track process used for noncontroversial bills that required a two-thirds supermajority for passage. While the bill clinched a simple majority, 235-188, it did not meet the two-thirds threshold due to GOP opposition. It's possible that House Democrats will bring up the bill for a vote again later, but under a process where they only need a simple majority to send it to the Senate. Rep. Bonnie Watson Coleman (D-N.J.), the bill's author, argued it's essential to formally ban hair discrimination because African Americans are often penalized under workplace and school dress code policies for having natural hairstyles such as afros, braids and cornrows. "Far too often, Black people, especially Black women and girls, are derided or deemed unprofessional simply because their hair does not conform to white beauty standards," Watson Coleman said on the House floor. "Our natural hair is as innate a quality of Black people as the presence of melanin in our skin. Discriminating against our hair is no different is no different than discriminating against the color of our skin," she said. A 2019 study conducted by the JOY Collective found that Black women were 80 percent more likely to feel that they had to change their hair from its natural state to fit in at the office. The vote on the bill came moments after the House passed legislation to designate lynching as a federal hate crime. Democrats deliberately timed the votes on both bills for Monday, the last day of Black History Month. Republicans questioned the need for new legislation formally banning race-based hair discrimination, arguing that it's already prohibited under current law. "Democrats are prioritizing this legislation, a bill to prohibit conduct already unlawful under our law, for political messaging reasons. This bill does not address any of the serious problems our country currently faces," said Rep. Jim Jordan (Ohio), the top Republican on the House Judiciary Committee.

 Manchin joins with Senate GOP to block bill guaranteeing abortion access - Democratic Sen. Joe Manchin (W.Va.) joined with Senate Republicans on Monday night to oppose legislation codifying the right to an abortion. Senators voted 46-48 to move the bill toward a debate on the Senate floor, falling short of the three-fifths vote needed to move it forward. The bill, which passed the House last year, enshrines the right to an abortion and pushes back against state-level restrictions. The Senate’s failed vote comes as the Supreme Court is weighing a case that would curb Roe vs. Wade. “Sadly it looks like the Supreme Court will limit abortion rights on the coming months. That’s why the bill is essential,” Senate Majority Leader Charles Schumer (D-N.Y.) said. But the bill was guaranteed to fail because it needed 60 votes to move forward. Manchin and Sen. Bob Casey (D-Pa.) weren’t formal co-sponsors of the bill, but Casey had previously said he would vote to start debate on the bill. Asked about Manchin’s “no” vote, Sam Runyon, a spokesperson for Manchin, said, “Senator Manchin’s position has not changed.” Senate GOP Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) accused Democrats of trying to support a “radical” policy to appease their base. “Yet again our colleagues wish to demonstrate that the radical left fringe runs today’s Democratic Party,” McConnell said. GOP Sens. Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska) and Susan Collins (R-Maine) voted against advancing the Democratic bill but introduced a proposal shortly before the vote to codify Roe vs. Wade. “I have long supported a woman’s right to choose, but my position is not without limits, and this partisan Women’s Health Protection Act simply goes too far. It would broadly supersede state laws and infringe on Americans’ religious freedoms,” Murkowski said. “The fact that my choice is between this bill, or nothing at all, shows how insincere Majority Leader Schumer is about protecting women’s rights. Failing to conduct any outreach and reducing this important issue to nothing more than a designed-to-fail show vote is a disservice to women across America,” she added.

Commentary: Private prison system reveals huge defect in U.S. democracy - People's Daily Online (Xinhua) -- Correctional institutions are meant to uphold justice. However, in the United States, the suffering of those in for-profit jails makes them a testament to the country's long track record of human rights violations. Appalling records of what has happened and is happening in hundreds of private prisons across the United States have revealed a corrupt judicial system and national government, which can hardly be corrected. Private prisons were founded in the 1980s to make up for bed shortages in federal and state prisons. Profit-oriented companies soon found loopholes to turn the facilities into a cash cow. In the past 40 years, these prisons were notorious for a kids-for-cash scandal, pay-to-stay program, political donations, uncontrollable violence and exploitation of prison labor, and have been denounced as "an absolute hellhole." In 2011, a Pennsylvania judge was convicted of throwing out thousands of juvenile convictions while taking kickbacks from owners and builders of private prisons. That kids-for-cash scandal involved over 2,000 juveniles. Compared with federal and state prisons, private ones are more violent and dangerous. U.S. reporter Shane Bauer has unveiled such untold darkness in his book American Prison: A Reporter's Undercover Journey into the Business of Punishment. A fact rarely known to the public is that incarcerated labor is often exploited. Amid the COVID-19 pandemic, prison laborers in over 40 states have been used to make hand sanitizer and protective equipment with hourly wages far below a minimum level, and even without their own protective equipment to reduce infectious risks in prison lockdowns. "That's how you treated slaves," said a prisoner in an audio link posted on Twitter and shared by Restore Justice, a criminal justice reform organization.

Whoops! Biden Stumbles, Confuses 'Iranian' With 'Ukrainian' in First SOTU Address -During his first State of the Union address, US President Joe Biden, in a move he is notorious for, fumbled his words, confusing "Iranian" for "Ukrainian".The remarks came as the American commander-in-chief spent the first roughly 11 minutes of his speech dedicated to US foreign policy, specifically the ongoing Ukrainian crisis."Putin may circle Kiev with tanks, but he'll never gain the hearts and souls of the Iranian people," US President Joe Biden said during his first State of the Union address on Tuesday. "He'll never extinguish their love of freedom, and he will never weaken the resolve of the free world."Biden meant, of course, to say "Ukrainian" and not "Iranian".In a video cutaway during the event, US Vice President Kamala Harris is seen making a slightly confused expression in response to the verbal gaffe, and applause in the House Chamber was scattered.#SOTU: President Biden accidentally says "Iranian people" instead of "Ukrainian people." pic.twitter.com/as4zFouYbI— Forbes (@Forbes) March 2, 2022The stumble was not missed by netizens tuned into the late night speech - not by a long shot.Twitter user @DevinDrover responded to the mix-up, writing, "An unfortunate slip-up, which I’m sure everyone will jump on, but the point itself is right on — people should do better than to try to take advantage of this tragedy to score domestic political points." Others were not as forgiving, saying "I really doubt if the president can tell the difference between Iran and Ukraine." Or betting that the President would make a gaffe, as he has often done in the past.

Commerce secretary is designated survivor for 2022 State of the Union - Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo is the designated survivor for President Biden’s first State of the Union address, a White House official said on Tuesday night. Raimondo has served in Biden’s Cabinet since March 2021. As secretary of Commerce, she is 10th in the presidential line of succession. Raimondo has been an integral part of the administration’s work on addressing the global semiconductor shortage and making the U.S. more competitive with nations such as China. The designated survivor tradition involves a member of the president’s Cabinet staying at an undisclosed location during the State of the Union to preserve the government’s succession in the case of a catastrophic incident during the address at the Capitol. Vice President Harris and other Cabinet members are in attendance for the speech. Interior Secretary Deb Haaland shared a photograph of herself with other members of the Cabinet prior to the White House’s announcement, with Raimondo notably missing from it.

Biden announces plans to help veterans exposed to toxic chemicals - The Department of Veterans Affairs (VA) will be taking new measures to care for veterans who are suffering from nine cancers related to exposure to toxic chemicals, President Biden announced Tuesday. “The VA is pioneering new ways of linking toxic exposures to diseases, already helping more veterans get benefits,” Biden said during his State of Union address. “And tonight, I’m announcing we're expanding eligibility to veterans suffering from nine respiratory cancers.” The VA said in an announcement earlier Tuesday that it was adding the nine cancers to its list of disabilities that were caused by military service — meaning affected veterans may be eligible for disability compensation. Helping veterans exposed to toxic chemicals due to burn pits has gained bipartisan momentum, and the issue has been personal for Biden, whose son Beau Biden died of brain cancer in 2015. The president invoked his son on Tuesday. “We don’t know for sure if a burn pit was the cause of his brain cancer, or the diseases of so many of our troops,” the president said. “But I’m committed to finding out everything we can.” The president also called on Congress to pass legislation to make sure veterans who were exposed to toxins in Iraq and Afghanistan get benefits and comprehensive care. The Senate passed the Health Care for Burn Pit Victims Act in mid-February, which expands VA health care for combat veterans who served after the Sept. 11, 2001 terrorist attack and were exposed to toxic burn pits. The bill would extend the period of eligibility for combat veterans after this period from five years to 10 years following discharge — and would include training on toxic exposures for employees, mandating clinical toxic exposure screenings and boosting federal research on the subject. “Veterans are the best of us,” Biden said in his speech. “I’ve always believed that we have a sacred obligation to equip all those we send to war and care for them and their families when they come home.”

House passes bill to expand health benefits for veterans exposed to toxic burn pits - The House on Thursday passed legislation that would expand access to health care for veterans exposed to toxins, such as chemicals emanating from burn pits, during their military service. Lawmakers passed the bill largely along party lines, 256-174. Thirty-four Republicans joined Democrats in support. Passage of the bill came two days after President Biden announced during his State of the Union address that the Department of Veterans Affairs will add nine respiratory cancers to its list of service-connected disabilities to expand benefits eligibility for affected veterans. The bill passed in the House would expand VA health care eligibility for veterans exposed to toxic burn pits by establishing a presumption of service connection for about two dozen types of respiratory illnesses — like chronic bronchitis and asthma — and cancers. It's estimated that about 3.5 million U.S. service members have been exposed to burn pits, according to the Iraq and Afghanistan Veterans of America, a nonprofit veterans organization. A survey from the nonprofit found that 86 percent of its members reported exposure to burn pits or other toxics, with 89 percent reporting symptoms that might have been caused by that exposure. “When we sent our service members into harm’s way, we made a pact to care for them when they came home. But for too long, Congress and the Department of Veterans Affairs have been slow to accept responsibility and cost of that care, citing high costs or lack of absolute, scientific proof of illness connections to service,” said House Veterans’ Affairs Committee Chairman Mark Takano (D-Calif.). “The result is a disability claims process that is cumbersome and one that places the burden of proof for toxic exposure on veterans themselves.” “When our country goes to war, we don’t nickel and dime the Department of Defense. And we shouldn’t try to pinch pennies when it comes to covering the care for toxic-exposed veterans,” Takano said. Biden said during his State of the Union address that his late son, Beau Biden, may have developed his brain cancer from exposure to a burn pit while serving in Iraq. Such burn pits were often used at military sites in Iraq and Afghanistan to incinerate garbage like human waste, munitions, plastics, jet fuel and paint.

Biden Pledges Better Nursing Home Care, but He Likely Won’t Fast-Track It -President Joe Biden’s top Medicare official suggested Wednesday that forthcoming rules to bolster nursing home staffing won’t be issued under a mechanism, known as interim final rules, that would allow regulations to take effect more or less immediately.“While we want to move swiftly, we want to get comments from stakeholders,” Chiquita Brooks-LaSure, administrator of the U.S. Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services, said in an interview about the overhaul Biden promised during his State of the Union address.“Medicare is going to set higher standards for nursing homes and make sure your loved ones get the care they deserve and that they expect,” Biden said.But Brooks-LaSure suggested the administration’s sought-after nursing home changes are not considered urgent even as nursing homes and other long-term care facilities register shocking numbers of covid deaths. A KFF analysis estimated that more than 200,000 residents and staff members of long-term care facilities had died from covid as of Jan. 30, amounting to at least 23% of all U.S. deaths.“When we do interim final rules, those tend to be things that are absolute emergencies,” Brooks-LaSure said when asked whether they would be considered for nursing home staffing levels, “or tight timelines.”The White House this week said CMS will first study the issue and then propose minimum staffing standards “within one year,” but officials have been otherwise vague about timing. When issuing regulations, federal agencies generally release a proposal and then seek public feedback before finalizing it. The entire process can take months or even years. But there’s an exception that allows newly issued regulations to kick in much faster even if the agency allows for public comment — a move that Biden officials have exercised recently when issuing a covid vaccine mandate for health workers and implementing a ban on surprise medical bills that took effect this year.Marjorie Moore, executive director of Voyce, a St. Louis nonprofit that advocates for long-term care residents, said “the speed of this is a little frustrating.” She said she’s seen situations where residents hadn’t had their diapers changed for days because staffing shortages are so dire.“That’s not what we expect for our most vulnerable,” she said.Still, she said, “I think one year, knowing that this is government stuff, may be the best we can hope for. That’s not going to be an overnight thing. We just knew there was no way.”Biden’s proposal would amount to the biggest increase in federal nursing home regulation in nearly four decades. CMS could pursue several elements under the agency’s existing authority, such as investigating the role of private equity in the sector, increasing its scrutiny of the poorest-performing facilities, and making public more information about facilities’ finances and operators.

 Split Senate panel advances Biden's FCC, FTC nominees - The Senate Commerce Committee on Thursday advanced President Biden ’s nominees to the Federal Communications Commission (FCC) and Federal Trade Commission (FTC) in two tie votes split along party lines. Sen. Ben Ray Luján (D-N.M.) returned to the Senate before the vote, after roughly a month-long absence while recovering from a stroke, giving Democrat’s the votes they needed to push forward the long-delayed nominees. He was met with a round of applause from committee members, and welcoming comments from members on both sides of the aisle. But a warm welcome for Luján was the end of the bipartisan consensus during Thursday’s markup. Republicans continued to push back on FCC nominee Gigi Sohn and FTC nominee Alvaro Bedoya, both of whom would give their respective commissions a Democratic majority. Republicans had grilled Sohn in two hearings ahead of Thursday’s vote. Ranking Member Roger Wicker (R-Miss.) commended Sohn on her “willingness” to engage with committee members, but said the “vetting process clarified she’s not the right choice to fill this vacancy.”

Supreme Court takes up EPA’s power to limit greenhouse gas emissions -- The Supreme Court on Monday will consider how much power the Environmental Protection Agency has to limit greenhouse gas emissions from existing power plants, one of the most important cases of a term already loaded with blockbuster issues.At stake is the extent of the government's authority over "the single largest industrial source of climate pollution in our country and one of the largest sources of carbon dioxide pollution in the world," said Vickie Patton, general counsel of the Environmental Defense Fund. Energy-producing states led by West Virginia and coal companies are urging the court to rule that the EPA does not have broad authority to shift the nation's energy production away from coal-burning power plants toward cleaner sources, including solar and wind power. That kind of public policy can be set only by Congress, not by a federal agency, they argue. The case comes before the court in an unusual posture, because the states and coal companies are not challenging any specific rule now in effect. Instead, they are contesting a federal appeals court ruling that said the EPA could issue the kind of regulations the challengers oppose. If those rules come back, the challengers say, the EPA could "name itself the country's central energy planning authority by reshaping the power grids and seizing control over electricity production nationwide." The legal fight began seven years ago, when the EPA under the Obama administration issued a plan to reduce carbon dioxide pollution from power plants by allowing their operators to get credit for generating more power from lower-emitting sources, such as natural gas or solar energy or wind energy. The coalition of states and coal companies sued, saying the Clean Air Act gave the government authority only to restrict pollution from specific power plants, not to require power companies to shift to different methods of generation. After the Supreme Court blocked the enforcement of that rule, the EPA abandoned it and instead, under the Trump administration, proposed standards that would regulate only emissions from power plants. The relaxed restriction on greenhouse gases was then challenged by a different lineup of states and a coalition of environmental groups. The U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia, on President Donald Trump's final day in office, struck down his administration's revised rule. As a result, no EPA restriction currently applies to carbon pollution from existing power plants. But the appeals court ruling left the door open for the Biden administration to resurrect the EPA's earlier approach, involving a shift to cleaner sources. That possibility is what the coal companies and the red states are asking the Supreme Court to prevent. "Major policy choices affecting the national economy should not be made by unelected agency officials," a legal brief from the North American Coal Corp. said. The Supreme Court should ensure "that those momentous trade-offs are made by Congress," it said. The Biden Justice Department said the states and coal companies have no legal authority to maintain their lawsuit because no pollution rule is currently in effect. It said the EPA is in in the process of coming up with a new rule on carbon dioxide emissions.

Hill takes notice as Supreme Court mulls EPA climate powers -The landmark Clean Air Act case argued before the Supreme Court yesterday could reverberate around Capitol Hill at a critical time for environmentalists and climate advocates.West Virginia v. EPA threatens to rip out regulatory authority Democrats and activists long viewed as a backstop to lagging congressional action on climate change. During arguments yesterday, the justices appeared open to limiting EPA’s authority to require stricter power plant emissions controls — which could be a long-term victory for Republicans and coal states who have long sought to limit the agency’s regulation of greenhouse gas emissions (Greenwire, Feb. 28) Lawmakers and congressional aides say it may be as important as the yearslong fight over the endangerment finding and Massachusetts v. EPA, the 2007 case that established the agency’s authority to regulate the greenhouse gases warming the planet.Republican-led states and coal companies last year petitioned the Supreme Court to reverse a ruling by the U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit that struck down the Trump-era Affordable Clean Energy rule, which gutted the Obama administration’s Clean Power Plan. In a move that shocked legal observers, the justices agreed to take up the case, even though the Biden administration said it planned to write a brand-new carbon rule. Solicitor General Elizabeth Prelogar said during arguments yesterday that EPA expects to issue a proposed regulation by the end of the year and could finalize the rule by late 2023.Nearly 200 Democrats signed an amicus brief last month supporting EPA and arguing that Congress gave the agency authority under the Clean Air Act intended to stand over the decades since it became law.“We need every single tool in the toolbox to help us solve the climate crisis, and that includes the Clean Air Act,” said House Select Committee on the Climate Crisis Chair Kathy Castor (D-Fla.), who led the brief with Energy and Commerce Chair Frank Pallone (D-N.J.) and Senate Environment and Public Works Chair Tom Carper (D-Del.).Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse (D-R.I.) and three other Democrats filed a separate brief decrying the “reek of politics” at the court, calling the West Virginia case an “industry-driven project” (Greenwire, Dec. 25, 2021). Republicans argued in their own brief in December that the “economic and political significance” of power sector greenhouse gas regulations make it a matter for Congress to decide explicitly. It was supported by 47 GOP senators and 44 House Republicans.

Collins to meet with Biden's Supreme Court nominee Tuesday Sen. Susan Collins (R-Maine), a key swing vote, will meet with President Biden’s Supreme Court nominee, Judge Ketanji Brown Jackson, on Tuesday. Collins’s meeting, confirmed to The Hill by an aide, is a crucial sit-down for Jackson as Democrats hope to pick up GOP votes for her nomination. Collins and Sens. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) and Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska) voted last year to confirm Jackson to the D.C. Circuit Court of Appeals, considered the second-most important federal court in the U.S. Collins said this week that she hadn’t yet made a decision on if she will support Jackson, whose nomination was announced last week. But she made clear that she needed to sit down with Jackson. “I haven’t made a decision. It’s a different level obviously to go to the Supreme Court and it’s absolutely essential that I sit down with her and interview her,” Collins said. Democrats view Collins, who supported President Obama’s Supreme Court nominees, as an important vote.

Biden court pick hits roadblock after GOP objection -President Biden’s nominee to fill a district court vacancy is hitting a dead end in the wake of pushback from GOP Sen. Ron Johnson (Wis.). Senate Judiciary Committee Chairman Dick Durbin (D-Ill.) told The Hill on Wednesday that he isn’t moving forward with William Pocan’s nomination after Johnson indicated last month that he wouldn’t support Pocan. The Senate has a precedent, known as the blue slip rule, that allows a home-state senator to effectively block a district court nominee from their state by not returning their blue slip, a piece of paper that indicates if a senator supports a nomination. Durbin indicated in the immediate wake of Johnson’s opposition that he hadn’t yet decided whether to move forward with the nomination. Durbin had generally pledged to honor the blue slip precedent for district court nominees but left the door open to exceptions if the process was abused by GOP senators or in “those cases where it appears to clearly be a case of discrimination based on gender, race or sexual orientation.” “The blue slip on district courts is clear,” Durbin told The Hill on Wednesday, adding that the caveat he had previously outlined “doesn’t apply here, I don’t think.” Johnson and Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D-Wis.) previously recommended Pocan as a potential pick to fill the vacancy. Wisconsin uses a nominating commission that recommends four to six names to the senators, who then formally make recommendations to the president. Durbin pointed to the two senators and the White House reaching a deal on an alternative nominee as the next step for filling the Wisconsin district court vacancy. “They have other names that they have proposed to the White House and if they can agree on one, that would be the next step,” he said.

 Russia invasion of Ukraine could play unusual role in midterms -Russia’s deadly invasion of Ukraine could throw a wrench into the midterms as voters scrutinize President Biden’s efforts to counter aggression from a global superpower and U.S. adversary. Foreign policy rarely touches down-ballot elections. But Russia’s moves in Europe, and the U.S.’s response, could have domestic implications that hit Americans’ pocketbooks and would come on top of already high gas prices and record inflation — issues voters rank among the most important. Additionally, deep networks of immigrants from Eastern Europe reside in some of the nation’s most critical battleground states, and the president’s approval rating, a predictor of his party’s midterm performance, remains low. “This is going to be a backdrop to a lot of the elections now,” said Dave Pepper, the former chair of the state Democratic Party in Ohio, a key swing state with the country’s fifth-highest population of Ukrainian residents. Some Democrats believe Biden is well-positioned to explain his decisions on Ukraine and defend the increasingly severe sanctions he is levying against Moscow. The president this week called Russia’s invasion a “brutal assault on the people of Ukraine” and a “premeditated attack.” He placed new economic and technology sanctions on the country on Thursday, and officials said they still have options on the table. Pepper speculated that Biden’s posture on the crisis — and the isolationist response from some GOP candidates — could create an opening for down-ballot Democrats in November’s elections. Ohio Republican Senate candidates Josh Mandel and J.D. Vance have questioned why the U.S. is focused on the foreign conflict while domestic issues mount. Vance went as far to say on a right-wing podcast that he doesn't “really care what happens to Ukraine one way or another,” before walking back the statement. Other Ohio GOP contenders, including Jane Timken, Mike Gibbons and Matt Dolan, have called for economic retaliation against Russia. All the candidates have condemned Biden’s handling of the situation. “I wasn’t really thinking about the race in this way, but all of a sudden my own heritage is relevant in how I vote,” Pepper said, referring to how Midwest residents who have a connection to Eastern Europe may perceive the crisis.

Hackers Become the Hacked: Anonymous' Site Taken Down Following Declaration of ‘Cyberwar’ on Russia - The Anonymous hacker collective began attacking the Russian segment of the internet Friday in connection with the situation in Ukraine, targeting websites of Russian businesses, media, the military and various government agencies. A hacking group called Killnet claims to have brought down a key website affiliated with Anonymous, as well as the neo-Nazi Ukrainian Right Sector paramilitary group and the office of the president of Ukraine.Users attempting to access Anonymous’ official website, ‘anonymoushackers.net’ on Tuesday afternoon were met with the message “Sorry, that didn’t work. Please try again or come back later. 500 Error. Internal Server Error.” Killnet accompanied the gesture with a Russian-language video address, with a shadowy hooded figure against the backdrop of a Russian flag reading out a text.“Greetings, Russians and friendly union nations. The internet is full of fake information about the hacking of Russian banks, hacks on Russian media servers, and much more. None of this poses any danger to people. This ‘information bomb’ is merely text, and nothing more. Do not fall for fake information on the internet. Have no doubts about your country,” the hackers said.Blaming Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, the US and its European allies for the current crisis, the hacking group assured that “very soon this conflict will end, and we will find peace. Do not be afraid, Russia, no one and nothing can threaten you.”Addressing Anonymous directly, Killnet urged the group to “start restoring your site,” suggesting it “looks very pitiful against in light of your threats against our country.”Anonymous launched a “cyberwar” on Moscow on Friday, summoning hackers from around the world to target Russia over its military operation in Ukraine. The group has taken credit for DDoS attacks on Russian government and media websites, the military and businesses.The group’s attacks appear to have been uncoordinated, disorganized, and indiscriminate. In addition to attacks on state media, for example, they targeted an independent St. Petersburg-based newspaper, several business outlets, and regional media which do not pay much attention to federal politics or world affairs. Anonymous’s hacking campaign began coordination with efforts by Western IT giants and governments, which have moved to censor Russian foreign-language media outlets by blocking websites, shutting down radio and television broadcasts, and taking Russian media social media pages offline.

Capitol riot defendant pleads guilty to seditious conspiracy, agrees to cooperate -A Capitol riot defendant who was among a group of Oath Keepers charged with seditious conspiracy pleaded guilty on Wednesday, agreeing to cooperate with federal prosecutors as they pursue their most ambitious case following last year's Jan. 6 attack.Joshua James, 34, pleaded to one count of seditious conspiracy and one count of obstructing an official proceeding.During a virtual court hearing on Wednesday, a federal judge suggested he could still face up to nine years in prison.Under the agreement outlined in court, James, an Alabama resident and Army veteran, must fully cooperate with prosecutors, including testifying in trial or before a grand jury.James and 10 others affiliated with the Oath Keepers were indicted in January on seditious conspiracy charges for their participation in the Capitol breach. Prosecutors say that the group had been planning in the weeks following the November 2020 election to use force to prevent President Biden from taking office.James on Wednesday became the first of the group to reach a plea agreement with prosecutors, and his cooperation could be used against his alleged co-conspirators.Prosecutors say that the conspiracy was led by Oath Keepers leader Stewart Rhodes, who rallied the group to prepare for violence in support of former President Trump's baseless claims of a stolen election, going so far as to purchase thousands of dollars worth of firearms and weapons equipment before and after Jan. 6.The indictment alleged that groups of Oath Keepers moved into the Capitol in two military-style "stack" formations. Prosecutors say that James was the leader of the second stack, which entered through the east side of the complex and attempted to force its way past police officers. According to the indictment, James got into a violent altercation with officers, who used pepper spray on him and another member of the stack.

 Trump appeals order that he sit for NY deposition - Former President Trump on Monday appealed a New York judge's order that he comply with the state attorney general's subpoena for his testimony as part of a wide-ranging civil investigation into his business practices. Trump's lawyers filed a notice that they were seeking a review from the state appellate court after Judge Arthur Engoron earlier this month ordered the former president and his two eldest children to sit for a deposition with the attorney general's office. Engoron's ruling this month rejected Trump's effort to quash the subpoenas and prevent New York Attorney General Letitia James (D) from moving forward with her probe. "In the final analysis, a State Attorney General commences investigating a business entity, uncovers copious evidence of possible financial fraud, and wants to question, under oath, several of the entities' principals, including its namesake. She has the clear right to do so," Engoron wrote in the decision. James's office did not immediately respond when asked for comment on the appeal. Trump's attorneys also did not immediately offer comment, but they attacked Engoron's ruling earlier this month. Alina Habba, one of the former president's lawyers in the case, said in an emailed statement at the time that the ruling "confirmed what we’ve already known for some time — Donald J. Trump cannot get a fair ruling in the State of New York." "The abhorrent statements made by Letitia leave no doubt that this is yet another politically motivated witch-hunt," Habba said. "It is disappointing that the Judge overlooked her egregious prosecutorial misconduct and has allowed her investigation — which blatantly violates the US Constitution — to continue undeterred. The court clearly had its mind made up and had no interest in engaging in impartial discourse on this critically important issue." Trump has repeatedly attacked the investigation as a politically motivated witch hunt on social media and in the courts, even filing a federal lawsuit asking for an injunction against the probe. James has stood by her office's efforts and revealed that it has uncovered evidence that the Trump Organization has been falsifying the value of its various assets for financial gain. "Donald J. Trump, Donald Trump, Jr., and Ivanka Trump were ordered by the court to comply with our lawful investigation into Mr. Trump and the Trump Organization’s financial dealings," she said in a statement on Monday. "While they have the right to seek a delay, they cannot deter us from following the facts and the law wherever they may lead. Make no mistake: My office will continue to pursue this case without fear or favor because no one is above the law."

Serena Willams knocks New York Times after it incorrectly runs photo of sister - Tennis superstar Serena Williams took to Twitter on Wednesday to call out The New York Times for using a photo of her sister, Venus Williams, in an article about her new capital venture fund. She called on the Times to "do better" with "engrained systems woefully unaware of their biases." "No matter how far we come, we get reminded that it's not enough. This is why I raised $111 million for Serena Ventures," Williams said on Twitter, adding "even I am overlooked."

Citigroup could lose billions in Russia, bank helping staff leave Ukraine –executives (Reuters) - Citigroup Inc C.N could face billions of dollars of losses at its Russian business and is helping some of its 200 staff in Ukraine leave the country following Russia's invasion, executives said on Wednesday. The bank's total exposure to Russia amounted to nearly $10 billion at the end of last year, it said on Monday, far higher than previously communicated. Asked at the bank's investor day about potential losses in Russia, Chief Financial Officer Mark Mason said it had run health checks to determine how much of that exposure could be lost under different potential outcomes. "We've been working very closely with our risk management to run various scenarios as to what that exposure could mean under different stress scenarios," he said. "Looking at a severe stress scenario that number, on the high end, could be a little less than half of that exposure but it could also be a lot less than that depending on how the situation evolves." The bank is looking to reduce its exposure to Russian assets using hedging and other strategies, Mason said. "We've been managing that exposure very proactively to bring that number down," Mason said. The bank is attempting to sell its Russian consumer business. Chief Executive Officer Jane Fraser said it was "too early to tell" how that sale process will be affected. The only publicly named buyer had been Russian state bank VTB Bank VTBR.MM , which is the subject of U.S. sanctions. The bank also said it had been helping those among its 200 staff in Ukraine who want to leave that country to do so, sending pay in advance and providing other assistance.

Major Corporations Sever Relations with Russia as Moscow Stock Exchange Is Shuttered for a Second Day --By Pam Martens -There is now an international competition for who can land the biggest insult to Russian President Vladimir Putin by severing business, financial, cultural and sports ties to Russia. Add Mickey Mouse to the growing list. Yesterday, the Walt Disney Company Tweeted this:“Given the unprovoked invasion of Ukraine and the tragic humanitarian crisis, we are pausing the release of theatrical films in Russia, including the upcoming Turning Red from Pixar. We will make future business decisions based on the evolving situation. In the meantime, given the scale of the emerging refugee crisis, we are working with our NGO partners to provide urgent aid and other humanitarian assistance to refugees.” As tens of thousands of outraged protesters take to the streets in cities around the world, some calling Putin a “war criminal,” and news photos spread of innocent Ukrainian children dying in an invasion that Putin declared for weeks would never happen, a growing number of major corporations are making public announcements that they are severing ties to Russia. Just in the past 48 hours, energy giants British Petroleum (BP), Shell and Norway’s Equinor have announced plans to end their business operations in Russia.Yesterday, the Board of Shell announced that it was exiting “its joint ventures with Gazprom and related entities, including its 27.5 percent stake in the Sakhalin-II liquefied natural gas facility, its 50 percent stake in the Salym Petroleum Development and the Gydan energy venture. Shell also intends to end its involvement in the Nord Stream 2 pipeline project.” Shell’s CEO, Ben van Beurden, said in a statement that “We are shocked by the loss of life in Ukraine, which we deplore, resulting from a senseless act of military aggression which threatens European security.” He added: “Our decision to exit is one we take with conviction. We cannot – and we will not – stand by.”Getting international packages delivered in Russia will also be more challenging. FedEx reports on its website that it has suspended all “inbound service to Russia until further notice.” UPS states on its website that it has temporarily suspended “all international shipping services” to and from Russia and Belarus. (Belarus allowed Russia to use its land to invade Ukraine.)According to Bloomberg News, General Motors and Harley-Davidson Inc. said they are halting shipments of their vehicles to Russia.Dell Technologies has confirmed to Yahoo Finance that it is no longer shipping its products to Russia.There has also been western retaliation against state-owned media in Russia. Reuters reported that Alphabet, parent of Google, over the weekend banned the Russian media outlet, RT, and other Russian channels, from receiving money for ads on their websites, apps and YouTube videos. Facebook has also announced on its website that it is “providing more transparency around state-controlled media outlets, prohibiting ads from Russian state media and demonetizing their accounts.”It is also going to be far more difficult for Russians to travel. On Sunday, Air France announced on its website that it had “suspended service to Russia and overflights of Russian airspace until further notice.” That announcement came in close proximity to European Commission President, Ursula von der Leyen, announcing that the EC was “shutting down EU airspace for Russian-owned, Russian-registered or Russian-controlled aircraft.” That action will also negatively impact all those Russian, jet-setting oligarchs flying on their privately-owned planes that are registered in Russia. All of this shunning of Putin and Russia is coming on top of strangling financial sanctions imposed by the European Commission, the U.S., U.K. and Canada – which include decoupling Russian banks from their ability to use the predominant payment system known as SWIFT and freezing the assets of the Russian central bank so that it can’t use its hard foreign currency to prop up its stock market and currency, the Ruble.

Bitcoin sanctions could be next, but most Russians won't care - As Moscow's war on Ukraine rages on and the Russian economy and currencyspiral to new lows, Washington is reportedly trying out a new way to dial up the pressure on Putin: sanctions targeting cryptocurrencies like bitcoin andethereum.The Department of Justice announced early Wednesday a new task forcebroadly designed to enforce sanctions. As part of that, it will target efforts to use cryptocurrency to evade U.S. sanctions, launder proceeds of foreign corruption or evade U.S. responses to Russian military aggression.Taking aim at Russia's access to digital cash comes as the U.S. and its allies, including notoriously neutral Switzerland, levy heavy punitive measuresagainst Moscow.The concern is that the Kremlin, as well as other ancillary actors supporting the offensive on Ukraine, will evade the sanctions regime via digital tokens, which are not owned or issued by a central authority like a bank. Bitcoin, like most cryptocurrencies, is decentralized and borderless, which means that it doesn't respect national boundaries. Because there is no central authority to block transactions, digital currencies are also resistant.Since Russia invaded Ukraine on Feb. 24, stats from crypto data provider Kaiko show that transactions on centralized bitcoin exchanges in both the Russian ruble and the Ukrainian hryvnia have surged to their highest levels in months. This is likely part of the reason why Ukraine asked all the top crypto exchanges to ban Russian users — a request that has been rejected by many major players, who argue a move like that would go against the very reason why cryptocurrencies exist.Despite growing signs of crypto adoption — as well as dialed-up rhetoric from world leaders about banning sanctioned Russians from digital currency exchanges — crypto as a pathway to sidestepping sanctions isn't really a viable option at scale.First of all, crypto markets offer thin liquidity and token transactions are, by design, traceable via a public ledger known as the blockchain. Aside from that, experts tell CNBC that ultimately there are better and smarter ways than using bitcoin to get around global financial blockades."The size and scale of crypto markets — and their state of liquidity — is not sufficient enough to offset what happens from banking disruptions and other disruptions from sanctions," "It's akin to, if someone were to block your paycheck for a month and then you had to rely on your piggy bank to make up for it," he said.How harsher sanctions against Russia could hurt U.S. banks — The nation’s banks are bracing for a prolonged period of economic instability and elevated compliance risk stemming from the Russian invasion of Ukraine, with anti-money-laundering policy, rising energy costs and cybersecurity emerging as top concerns in the weeks ahead.The United States and a growing number of Western allies have unleashed unprecedentedeconomic sanctions against the Russian Federation in the days since President Vladimir Putin announced a “special military operation” into Ukraine last week.Already, those sanctions have targeted huge swaths of the Russian financial system, including the country’s central bank, its sovereign wealth fund and several of the nation’s largest private financial institutions. The impact has been dramatic, with the value of the Russian currency falling to historic lows this week — an act of economic warfare never directed at a world power in modern history.

Visa suspends access for some clients as sanctions hit Russia -Visa has suspended access for certain clients as it works to comply with sanctions imposed after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.The payments giant disclosed that about 4% of its total net revenue in fiscal year 2021 came from Russia, including both domestic and cross-border activity, according to a regulatory filing Wednesday. That’s equivalent to the 4% exposure Mastercard disclosed earlier this week. “Visa is in the process of complying with all applicable global sanctions,” the company said in the filing. “As part of that compliance, we have suspended access to Visa for certain clients. It is difficult to reasonably estimate the full potential financial impact of this situation on Visa at this time.”

Fog of Financial Sanctions: Visa and Mastercard Shutdown in Russia Whacks Consumers by Yves Smith -- Just as it is very hard to tell what is really going on on the military front in Ukraine, so too it is hard to judge what is really happening on the financial sanctions front in Russia. A key point that is not well reported is that the SWIFT block against Russia is leaky. Yet all of the financial analyses I have seen so far presume that the SWIFT ban lives up to its billing, and I have yet to see any commentary based on the instructions to banks and how those affect various customers.As Clive grumbled:The whole “block access to SWIFT” is an inaccurate misnomer and really should itself be banned. If the US disconnects Russia from SWIFT (stops routing SWIFT transactions from inside Russia) but does not “blacklist” (put nulls into entries corresponding to the banks in scope on the SDN [Sanction Designated Names] list) this would enable Russia to find workarounds, such as sock-puppet entities in the rest of the world. Recall that the intent is not to stop Westerners from taking on more dollars by letting Russia sell fuel and other commodities; it is to prevent Russia from using dollars, in particular having its central bank use its FX horde to support the rouble. But that begs the question of why Russia should accept more dollars when the intent is to turn them into useless chits. The most sensible response would be for Russia to sell commodities outside the West and Europe. China is very long dollar FX reserves which are largely an economic dead weight. How about a fuel discount for dollar intervention futures?Several sources have opined that it should be possible to evade them to a fair, even considerable degree, through cutouts. However, figuring out how to navigate won’t happen overnight, and even then, how much can go through convoluted routes may indeed be more restricted. And a central bank often needs to move too much too fast for any of these cute circuitous routes to do much good.And Clive’s reading yesterday and today has been confirmed in the Financial Times. From Iran’s experience signals banning Swift will not work as expected: It wasn’t until March 2012 that Iranian financial institutions were kicked out of Swift. That the US waited this long to push for a Swift ban tells us it was simply not a priority….The reason ejecting Iran from Swift was never a priority is because, as long as there were third-country banks based outside the US willing to help with workarounds, a ban would have little effect. Swift is a messaging system, not a payment system. Unlike the payments themselves, messages can be sent by many different routes. In the case of Russia, banks could use its own transfer system, the SPFS (Sistema Peredachi Finansovykh Soobscheniy), which was established after the 2014 invasion of Crimea by the Central Bank of Russia.This system is increasingly used by domestic banks for cross currency payments within the Eurasian Economic Union — made up of Russia, Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan — and Russia claims it accounted for 17 per cent of Russian international payments messages in 2020. It is also used by some Russian bank subsidiaries in Germany and Switzerland. Russia could also use the Cross-Border Interbank Payment System, or CIPS, network created in 2015 by the People’s Bank of China for the purpose of cross-border payments in renminbi. CIPS features indirect participants in many countries. All these systems — Swift, SPFS, and CIPS — have the same architecture based on the global payments messaging standard ISO20022.

Treasury Department assures Wall Street it can still trade Russian oil and gas The U.S. Treasury Department clarified Friday afternoon that Wall Street's traders and banks can continue to buy and sell Russian oil and gas despite a raft of sanctions against Russia and its largest lenders. The new guidance comes as traders and banks worry about running afoul of U.S. trade laws as world leaders rally against Russian President Vladimir Putin's unprovoked invasion of Ukraine. But Treasury underscored in a post that the U.S. sanctions against Russia's biggest banks — including VTB Bank — do not apply to energy transactions until June 24. The department also reassured investors that companies that transport Russian energy commodities for sale to the U.S. are also except from the penalties. "In general, energy-related activities — including the purchase, sale, or transport of Russian-origin oil, gas, or other energy-related products by U.S. or non-U.S. persons — remain permissible," Treasury said on its website. "The energy sector of the Russian Federation economy itself is not subject to comprehensive sanctions." The update from Treasury, which enforces the majority of U.S. sanctions and tariffs, comes amid wide speculation that the U.S. could soon opt to bar Russian energy imports in addition to the raft of already-announced penalties against the Kremlin. Administration officials said the U.S. economy could likely withstand the impact of an outright ban on Russian crude imports if it works with its international partners. Russia is one of the globe's largest energy exporters and its sales of energy to the U.S. are one of the remaining ways Moscow can access U.S. dollars while its own currency tumbles. "We're in a very good position, and what we know from the U.S. economy is that we don't import a lot of Russian oil," said Cecilia Rouse, chair of the White House Council of Economic Advisers on Friday. "We are looking at options that we can take right now if we were to cut the U.S. consumption of Russian energy," she said. "But what's really most important is that we maintain a steady supply of global energy."

Yellen presses for more climate disclosures, zeroes in on insurance — The Treasury Department hosted an interagency panel discussion on local efforts to combat climate change, part of the Biden administration’s campaign to demonstrate how infrastructure spending is aiding its climate goals. While the panel didn’t address hot-button financial issues such as climate stress scenarios for banks, it did highlight the Biden administration’s deployment of key figures, including Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, to show the administration’s economic efforts on climate finance, even as some within the Democratic party urge more concrete and specific action. Climate finance has also emerged as a contentious issue in the Federal Reserve nomination of Sarah Bloom Raskin, whose nomination for regulation chief is currently being held up by Senate Republicans. Yellen, in opening remarks on the panel, said that the Treasury Department’s Federal Insurance Office will release a report by the end of the year on climate-related insurance supervision that considers potential gaps in regulation, a move initially announced two weeks ago. The office, she said, is “trying to answer questions like whether climate-related weather events have impacted the availability of insurance coverage, especially in high-risk areas and for traditionally underserved communities.”

Higher expenses pared bank profits: FDIC -- — Banks’ profits grew in the fourth quarter, but the country’s largest banks spent more on salaries, benefits and other expenses, according to the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp.’s Quarterly Banking Profile. U.S. banks reported fourth-quarter income of $63.9 billion, a 7.4% increase from the same time last year, according to the QBP. The increase is mostly attributable to a $5.8 billion rise in net interest income and a $4 billion drop in provision expense. Noncurrent loan balances fell 3% from the third quarter. More than half of banks reported year-over-year improvements in quarterly net income.

Deutsche Bank probes staff’s WhatsApp use as U.S. cracks down --Deutsche Bank is conducting an internal probe into the extent to which staff used private messaging channels such as WhatsApp, amid a crackdown from U.S. regulators on banks that fail to store business-related communication. Many senior executives have long relied on smartphone messaging services to communicate with each other, clients and other stakeholders, people familiar with the matter said. Those exchanges are part of an internal investigation that the German lender has kicked off to see if staff communications were in compliance with company policies and banking regulation, the people said asking not to be identified discussing private information. A Deutsche Bank spokesman declined to comment.

Citi is latest bank to be probed over unapproved messaging services -- Citigroup joined the list of banks being investigated over employee communications using unauthorized messaging services. The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission is probing Citigroup Global Markets “and other firms regarding compliance with record-keeping obligations for broker-dealers and investment advisers in connection with business-related communications sent over unapproved electronic messaging channels,” the New York-based bank said in a regulatory filing Monday. “CGMI is cooperating with the investigation.” Firms including Goldman Sachs Group and HSBC Holdings are being probed by U.S. regulators over staffers’ communications. In December, the SEC and Commodity Futures Trading Commission imposed $200 million in fines on JPMorgan Chase, saying that even managing directors and other senior supervisors at the bank had skirted regulatory scrutiny by using services such as WhatsApp or personal email addresses for work-related communication.For the next two years, we worked collaboratively with the Federal Reserve to maximize liquidity and prevent a crisis in confidence from raging across the country. Given our refusal to accept the administration’s view of reality, we should not have been as surprised as we were when the White House and Treasury began to work against us. OMB ordered us to reduce staff so we would not have the people necessary to close failed institutions. Republicans and Democrats in Congress refused to recapitalize the Federal Savings and Loan Insurance Corp. so that we could not sell failed institutions to healthy ones, and OMB threatened us with criminal prosecution if we continued closing institutions under the arcane Anti-Deficiency Act. If that weren’t enough, the Treasury dispatched an assistant secretary to testify in a lawsuit brought by shareholders of a failed S&L, arguing that our agency did not have the authority to close the institution even though it had lost all of its net worth. The court bluntly questioned the credibility of the assistant secretary’s testimony, and ruled in the agency’s favor, but a barrage of friendly fire continued to come our way over those two years. ‘

 The bitcoin-loving mayor of Miami is building crypto's version of Silicon Valley. Leaders from FTX and BlockTower Capital share why they're flocking to South Florida — and why other crypto fanatics should follow suit. -Forget Silicon Valley. Francis Suarez, the mayor of Miami, Florida, is building a "crypto coast."Arguably no politician has been friendlier toward the budding cryptocurrency industry than Suarez. The 44-year-old Miami native and former member of Florida's "Blockchain Task Force" announced plans last fall to become the first American elected official to get paid in bitcoin, just months after introducing a token called "MiamiCoin" — the nation's first "CityCoin."Those unprecedented steps came after cryptocurrencies exploded in both popularity and value during the pandemic. Some advocates say that digital assets are a way of decentralizing finance and makingglobal payments cheaper and easier. Others think crypto is just a way to make a quick buck.Suarez's pro-crypto pitch, as told to Insider in a recent interview, is simple: The US economy increasingly revolves around technology, and cryptocurrencies will inevitably play a key role in its future. And, most importantly to Suarez, Miami is where that future will be built.Even more idyllic than the city's weather and scenery is its tax environment: In Florida, there's no state income tax, and the top corporate income tax rate is just 5.5%. The nearby Turkey Point nuclear reactor is a bountiful source of relatively cheap carbon-free energy. It has a leader in Suarez who's all-in on crypto, and other local politicians also appear to be supportive."I can't imagine there's a better business climate than Miami right now for all things crypto," said Michael Bucella — a partner and global head of strategic partnerships for BlockTower Capital, a crypto investment firm that moved to Miami in 2021 — in an interview with Insider.

Bitcoin sanctions could be next, but most Russians won't care - As Moscow's war on Ukraine rages on and the Russian economy and currencyspiral to new lows, Washington is reportedly trying out a new way to dial up the pressure on Putin: sanctions targeting cryptocurrencies like bitcoin andethereum.The Department of Justice announced early Wednesday a new task forcebroadly designed to enforce sanctions. As part of that, it will target efforts to use cryptocurrency to evade U.S. sanctions, launder proceeds of foreign corruption or evade U.S. responses to Russian military aggression.Taking aim at Russia's access to digital cash comes as the U.S. and its allies, including notoriously neutral Switzerland, levy heavy punitive measuresagainst Moscow.The concern is that the Kremlin, as well as other ancillary actors supporting the offensive on Ukraine, will evade the sanctions regime via digital tokens, which are not owned or issued by a central authority like a bank. Bitcoin, like most cryptocurrencies, is decentralized and borderless, which means that it doesn't respect national boundaries. Because there is no central authority to block transactions, digital currencies are also resistant.Since Russia invaded Ukraine on Feb. 24, stats from crypto data provider Kaiko show that transactions on centralized bitcoin exchanges in both the Russian ruble and the Ukrainian hryvnia have surged to their highest levels in months. This is likely part of the reason why Ukraine asked all the top crypto exchanges to ban Russian users — a request that has been rejected by many major players, who argue a move like that would go against the very reason why cryptocurrencies exist.Despite growing signs of crypto adoption — as well as dialed-up rhetoric from world leaders about banning sanctioned Russians from digital currency exchanges — crypto as a pathway to sidestepping sanctions isn't really a viable option at scale.First of all, crypto markets offer thin liquidity and token transactions are, by design, traceable via a public ledger known as the blockchain. Aside from that, experts tell CNBC that ultimately there are better and smarter ways than using bitcoin to get around global financial blockades."The size and scale of crypto markets — and their state of liquidity — is not sufficient enough to offset what happens from banking disruptions and other disruptions from sanctions," "It's akin to, if someone were to block your paycheck for a month and then you had to rely on your piggy bank to make up for it," he said.

 Biden’s CFTC nominees call for more powers to police crypto-- President Biden’s four nominees to join the Commodity Futures Trading Commission told lawmakers that the main U.S. derivatives overseer should take on new responsibilities regulating cryptocurrencies. At their confirmation hearing before the Senate Agriculture Committee on Wednesday, the nominees said the agency’s history overseeing crypto derivatives positions it well to do more to oversee digital assets. . Cryptocurrencies appeared to be kicking off the week with a more positive outlook than U.S. stocks, just as some strategists are predicting the recent high correlation between the two may begin to ease.Sarah Silbiger/Bloomberg Rostin Behnam, who chairs the agency, told lawmakers last month that they should consider giving the regulator more authority and a budget increase of at least $100 million.

CFPB seeks to halt illegal auto repossessions by servicers -- Huge demand for used cars has prompted the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau to warn about illegal repossessions by auto lenders and servicers. The CFPB issued a compliance bulletin Monday describing ways in which auto repossessions violate the Dodd-Frank Act’s prohibition on engaging in unfair, deceptive or abusive acts or practices. CFPB Director Rohit Chopra said the bureau is concerned that the spike in car prices, due partly to the global microchip shortage, could create incentives for servicers to illegally seize vehicles for their resale value.

Prepaid card debacles, from BofA to the Kardashians - Since the prepaid card’s arrival more than 20 years ago, numerous industry participants have experienced high-profile snafus. The latest is Bank of America, which is under investigation by federal banking regulators in connection with its role as the exclusive provider of prepaid debit cards to recipients of government benefits in California.Both at BofA and elsewhere in the prepaid industry, the exploitation of cards by fraudsters has sometimes caused headaches. Other problems stemmed from technology glitches that temporarily prevented cardholders from accessing their money. What follows is a look at seven instances since 2010 of prepaid card companies that encountered large-scale consumer-related problems.

More states look to cap consumer interest rates at 36% - Lawmakers in New Mexico recently approved a 36% rate cap, which would slash the state’s current maximum APR from 175%. It now awaits the governor’s signature. Legislators in Rhode Island and Minnesota are considering similar restrictions, and consumer advocates in Michigan are gathering signatures for a ballot initiative on the same issue. The state-level action comes as congressional efforts to institute a national APR cap of 36% remain stuck. The federal legislation, championed by Democratic lawmakers, is similar to the limit Congress put in place for military members in 2006, though it would apply to all borrowers. Consumer advocates still hope lawmakers will give all consumers “the same kind of protection that Congress thought was needed” for military members, said Yasmin Farahi, senior policy counsel at the Center for Responsible Lending.But advocates are also working at the state level to cap interest rates at 36% — or lower. Doing so would help prevent borrowers from being “caught in the payday debt trap,” where they are unable to repay triple-digit APRs and end up owing far more in interest than they originally borrowed, Farahi said.Many states across the country allow payday lenders to charge APRs above 300%, and Texas, Nevada and Idaho allow annual interest rates above 600%, according to a trackerpublished by the Center for Responsible Lending.“These are marketed as a quick financial fix, but actually lead to long-term financial distress,” prompting consumers to miss other payments and even driving some into bankruptcy, Farahi said.Trade groups that represent payday lenders and high-cost installment lenders — whose loans are larger and spread out over a longer period of time — are pushing back against those efforts.They take issue with the focus on APRs as the proper gauge of a loan’s costs, arguing that it is an inappropriate metric for shorter-term loans. They also say that the high fixed costs of making small-dollar loans drive APRs above 36%, and that the prices reflect the risk of offering credit to people whose low or nonexistent credit scores often prevent them from getting traditional bank loans.

Fannie Mae: Mortgage Serious Delinquency Rate Decreased in January --Fannie Mae reported that the Single-Family Serious Delinquency decreased to 1.17% in January, from 1.25% in December. The serious delinquency rate is down from 2.80% in January 2021. These are mortgage loans that are "three monthly payments or more past due or in foreclosure".The Fannie Mae serious delinquency rate peaked in February 2010 at 5.59% following the housing bubble and peaked at 3.32% in August 2020 during the pandemic.By vintage, for loans made in 2004 or earlier (1% of portfolio), 3.39% are seriously delinquent (down from 3.48% in December). For loans made in 2005 through 2008 (2% of portfolio), 5.67% are seriously delinquent (down from 5.87%), For recent loans, originated in 2009 through 2021 (97% of portfolio), 0.95% are seriously delinquent (down from 1.01%). So, Fannie is still working through a few poor performing loans from the bubble years.Mortgages in forbearance are counted as delinquent in this monthly report, but they will not be reported to the credit bureaus.The pandemic related increase in delinquencies was very different from the increase in delinquencies following the housing bubble. Lending standards had been fairly solid over the previous decade, and most of these homeowners had equity in their homes - and the vast majority of these homeowners have been able to restructure their loans once they were employed.

MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest Weekly Survey -- From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey: Mortgage applications decreased 0.7 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending February 25, 2022.... The Refinance Index increased 1 percent from the previous week and was 56 percent lower than the same week one year ago. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 2 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index increased 1 percent compared with the previous week and was 9 percent lower than the same week one year ago.“Mortgage rates last week reached multi-year highs, putting a damper on applications activity. The 30- year fixed rate reached its highest level since 2019 at 4.15 percent, and the refinance share of applications dipped below 50 percent. Although there was an increase in government refinance applications, higher rates continue to push potential refinance borrowers out of the market,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s Associate Vice President of Economic and Industry Forecasting. “Purchase activity remained weak, but the average loan size increased again, which indicates that home-price growth remains strong, and a greater share of the activity is occurring at the higher end of the market.”Added Kan, “We will continue to assess the potential impact on mortgage demand from the sharp drop in interest rates this week due to the invasion of Ukraine.”...The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($647,200 or less) increased to 4.15 percent from 4.06 percent, with points decreasing to 0.44 from 0.48 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value ratio (LTV) loans.The first graph shows the refinance index since 1990.With higher mortgage rates, the refinance index has declined sharply over the last several months. Refinance activity will probably increase in the next survey as rates fall due to the invasion.The second graph shows the MBA mortgage purchase index’

The War and Mortgage Rates - The invasion of Ukraine has clouded the economic outlook (of course, the economic outlook is inconsequential compared to the ongoing human suffering in Ukraine). Fed Chair Pro Tempore Powell said today:“The near-term effects on the U.S. economy of the invasion of Ukraine, the ongoing war, the sanctions, and of events to come, remain highly uncertain.”And in the Q&A, Powell said about the March FOMC meeting:"I am inclined to propose and support a 25 basis point rate hike"And from BofA on uncertainty:[W]e think it is still highly unclear how far Putin and NATO are willing to go. In particular, what will it take for the west to adopt mutually painful sanctions onRussian energy exports? How much domestic economic pain is Putin willing or able to sustain before he backs down? Would he pre-emptively curtail commodity exports to inflict economic pain on Europe?As economic forecasters we know that relative to the pre-crisis baseline virtually all of the risks are to the downside. However, given the very foggy outlook, it is very hard to settle on an alternative baseline: we know it should be worse, but by how much?During periods of uncertainty, there is usually a flight to quality, and, as a result, the 10-year Treasury Yield has declined sharply. The yield had been close to 2.0%, but declined to 1.7% yesterday, before increasing to 1.84% today (as of this writing).Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily wrote yesterday: Biggest 2-Day Rate Drop in a Long Time as 30yr Surges Back Under 4.0%From Friday afternoon to right now, rates have dropped more than almost any other 48-hour period in more than a decade. If we disregard the crazy market movement seen in March 2020 (and there are good reasons to do that), we'd have to go all the way back to 2011 before seeing another 48 hours that came close.On average, effective conventional 30yr fixed rates for top tier scenarios dropped from 4.18 to 3.90 since Friday. Since rates are typically offered in .125% increments that means we've moved from a range of 4.125-4.25% to 3.875%-ish.With the ten-year yield at 1.84%, and based on an historical relationship, 30-year rates should currently be around 3.75%. So, mortgage rates are a little higher than expected based on the ten-year yield. The graph shows the relationship between the monthly 10-year Treasury Yield and 30-year mortgage rates from the Freddie Mac survey. Freddie Mac has a similar graph here with a linear fit (using data since 1990). Using their formula, 30-year rates would also be around 3.66%.

CoreLogic: House Prices up 19.1% YoY in January; "Highest Level in at Least 45 Years" The CoreLogic House Price Index is a three-month weighted average and is not seasonally adjusted (NSA).From CoreLogic: New Year, New Highs: CoreLogic Reports Home Price Appreciation Reaches 19.1% in January – Highest Level in at Least 45 YearsCoreLogic® ... today released the CoreLogic Home Price Index (HPI™) and HPI Forecast™ for January 2022.Consumers looking to purchase a home have remained optimistic moving into the new year, with more expecting to buy over the next six months as rapid home price appreciation is forecasted to slow. Despite market and economic challenges such as low inventory, continued buyer competition and declining affordability, potential buyers are ready to move while mortgage rates remain relatively low."In December and January, for-sale inventory continued to be the lowest we have seen in a generation,” said Dr. Frank Nothaft, chief economist at CoreLogic. “Buyers have continued to bid prices up for the limited supply on the market. However, the rise in mortgage rates since January further eroded buyer affordability and is expected to slow price gains in coming months.”...Nationally, home prices increased 19.1% in January 2022, compared to January 2021. On a month-over-month basis, home prices increased by 1.4% compared to December 2021....Home price gains are projected to slow to a 3.8% annual increase by January 2023.

 Housing Inventory February 28th Update: Inventory Down 1.3% Week-over-week; New Record Low -- Inventory usually declines in the winter, and this is a new record low for this series.m This inventory graph is courtesy of Altos Research. As of February 25th, inventory was at 244 thousand (7-day average), compared to 325 thousand for the same week a year ago. That is a decline of 24.9%. A week ago, inventory was at 248 thousand, and was down 25.8% YoY. Inventory was down 1.3% from the previous week.Compared to the same week in 2020, inventory is down 66.2% from 724 thousand.Last year inventory bottomed seasonally in April 2021 - very late in the year - usually inventory bottoms by February. An early key in 2022 will be to watch if inventory bottoms earlier this year.And here is a table of the year-over-year change by week since the beginning of the year. A possible early indicator might be if the YoY decline is less each week. Mike Simonsen discusses this data regularly on Youtube.

Rents Still Increasing Sharply Year-over-year - From ApartmentList.com: Apartment List National Rent ReportAfter a slight seasonal cooldown over the past few months, rent growth is back on an upward trajectory, with our national index up by 0.6 percent over the course of February. Even though month-over-month rent growth has moved back into positive territory, it remains substantially cooler than last summer, when rents grew by more than 2 percent per month for four straight months. Year-over-year rent growth currently stands at a staggering 17.6 percent, but most of that growth took place last spring and summer. Over the past four months, rents have increased by a total of just 0.7 percent. That said, this month’s growth was still faster than the pre-pandemic norm for this time of year.On the supply side, our national vacancy index is continuing to slowly inch up, indicating a gradual easing of the tight market conditions that have characterized the rental market over the past year. We estimate that the national vacancy rate hit 4.5 percent this month, continuing a seven month streak of increases after bottoming out at 3.8 percent last August. Rents increased this month in 74 of the nation’s 100 largest cities, with Sun Belt markets such as Phoenix and Miami continuing to see some of the nation’s fastest growth.Our national rent index closed out 2021 with a 0.2 percent month-over-month decline, making December the only month last year in which rents fell. That price dip proved to be short lived, however, with rent growth returning to positive territory over the past two months. Our national rent index increased by 0.6 percent month-over-month in February. This is a bit slower than the 0.8 percent increase that we saw last February, when the 2021 rent growth boom was just starting to pick up steam. It’s also well below the 2.1 percent average monthly rent growth that we saw from last March through September. But even if growth has cooled down substantially from last summer’s peak, it is also pacing well ahead of the pre-pandemic norm for this time of year. From 2017 to 2020, February rent growth averaged just 0.3 percent; this month’s increase was double that rate.Rents are still increasing, but not as quickly as a year ago. I’m going to update some of the data on rents. Here is a graph of several measures of rent since 2000: OER, rent of shelter, rent of primary residence, Zillow Observed Rent Index (ZORI), and ApartmentList.com. (All set to 100 in January 2017)Note: For a discussion on how OER, and Rent of primary residence are measured, see from the BLS: How the CPI measures price change of Owners’ equivalent rent of primary residence (OER) and rent of primary residence (Rent)

Construction Spending Increased 1.3% in January - From the Census Bureau reported that overall construction spending increased 1.3%: Construction spending during January 2022 was estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $1,677.2 billion, 1.3 percent above the revised December estimate of $1,655.8 billion. The January figure is 8.2 percent above the January 2021 estimate of $1,549.8 billion. Private and public spending increased:Spending on private construction was at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $1,326.5 billion, 1.5 percent above the revised December estimate of $1,307.1 billion ...In January, the estimated seasonally adjusted annual rate of public construction spending was $350.7 billion, 0.6 percent above the revised December estimate of $348.7 billion.This graph shows private residential and nonresidential construction spending, and public spending, since 1993. Note: nominal dollars, not inflation adjusted. Residential (red) spending is 22% above the bubble peak (in nominal terms - not adjusted for inflation).Non-residential (blue) spending is 20% above the bubble era peak in January 2008 (nominal dollars).Public construction spending is 8% above the peak in March 2009.The second graph shows the year-over-year change in construction spending.On a year-over-year basis, private residential construction spending is up 13.4%. Non-residential spending is up 7.3% year-over-year. Public spending is down 1.3% year-over-year. This was well above consensus expectations of a 0.2% decrease in spending and construction spending for the previous two months was revised up.

Hotels: Occupancy Rate Down 5% Compared to Same Week in 2019 -- From CoStar: STR: US Weekly Hotel Rates Significantly Outpace Pre-Pandemic Levels: U.S. hotel performance increased from the previous week and showed significant improvement against 2019 comparables, according to STR‘s latest data through Feb. 26. Feb. 20-26, 2022 (percentage change from comparable week in 2019*):
• Occupancy: 62.2% (-4.7%)
• Average daily rate (ADR): $143.83 (+13.1%)
• Revenue per available room (RevPAR): $89.45 (+7.7%)
*Due to the pandemic impact, STR is measuring recovery against comparable time periods from 2019. The following graph shows the seasonal pattern for the hotel occupancy rate using the four-week average. The red line is for 2022, black is 2020, blue is the median, and dashed light blue is for 2021. The 4-week average of the occupancy rate is below the median rate for the previous 20 years (Blue). The 4-week average of the occupancy rate will increase seasonally over the next few months.

Las Vegas Visitor Authority for January 2022: Visitor Traffic Down 27.5% Compared to 2019 --From the Las Vegas Visitor Authority: January 2022 Las Vegas Visitor StatisticsWith the Omicron variant and continued impacts on the convention group segment, Las Vegas visitation reached 2.47M, roughly three‐quarters of pre‐COVID levels of January 2019 but dramatically higher (+91.2%) than January 2021. Overall hotel occupancy reached 59.3%, +27.7 pts ahead of January 2021 but ‐24.7 pts below January 2019. Reflecting the challenged convention group segment, Midweek saw occupancy reach 52.0%, +29.5 pts vs. January 2021 but ‐30.1 pts vs. January 2019. As in the past several months, weekends fared better than midweek as Weekend occupancy reached 74.6%, +26.3 pts ahead of January 2021 and ‐14.2 pts vs. January 2019. Reaching $145, January 2022 ADR exceeded January 2021 by +60.1% while lagging January 2019 by ‐7.2%. RevPAR reached $86.12 for the month, approx. triple January 2021's depressed levels but down ‐34.5% from January 2019. The first graph shows visitor traffic for 2019 (dark blue), 2020 (light blue), 2021 (yellow) and 2022 (red) Visitor traffic was down 27.5% compared to the same month in 2019. Traffic was up 91% compared to last January. The second graph shows convention traffic.Convention traffic was down 55.3% compared to January 2019. Note: There was almost no convention traffic from April 2020 through May 2021.

February Vehicles Sales decreased to 14.07 million SAAR - Wards Auto released their estimate of light vehicle sales for February. Wards Auto estimates sales of 14.07 million SAAR in February 2022 (Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate), down 6.3% from the January sales rate, and down 11.7% from February 2021. This graph shows light vehicle sales since 2006 from the BEA (blue) and Wards Auto's estimate for February (red).The impact of COVID-19 was significant, and April 2020 was the worst month. After April 2020, sales increased, and were close to sales in 2019 (the year before the pandemic). However, sales decreased late last year due to supply issues. It appears the "supply chain bottom" was in September 2021, however sales in February were below the consensus forecast of 14.4 million SAAR.

February car sales decline, but truck sales continue rebound; plus a comment about the urgency of dealing with supply chain issues -I used to follow vehicle sales more closely – until the vehicle manufacturers, one by one, stopped reporting monthly, and only updated quarterly for the previous quarter. That makes the data much less timely, so much less useful.Fortunately the BEA does keep track of sales, although for some reason FRED is only able to publish the figures with a one month delay. Here is the drill: light vehicle sales generally turn down *after* home sales, but before most other consumer durable goods and other consumer purchases. This makes them a useful short leading indicator, although as you can see below (blue line), they are quite noisy. Heavy truck sales, by contrast (red), turn down earlier, and much more sharply, with much less noise (and the also turn up later after a recession is over): Heavy truck sales have turned down at least 15%, and usually much more, before a recession has hit.Now let’s take a look at the last 12 months:Both car and truck sales peaked early last spring, and bottomed last September. Car sales were down -33%, and truck sales were down -21%. Although not shown, in February according to the BEA, heavy truck sales increased to 0.471 million, only down -8% from their peak. Car and light truck sales decreased again to 14.1 million annualized, down -23% from peak.Both light and heavy vehicle sales last autumn were consistent with – but did not necessarily mean – an oncoming recession. The rebound in heavy truck sales in the past few months suggests that was a false positive, and is consistent with basically all of the other production and manufacturing data we have received, such as yesterday’s ISM manufacturing report, and durable goods orders.At the same time, it would behoove the Biden Administration to really lean on, and assist, vehicle manufacturers to solve their supply chain problems. This has gone on for over a year, it has done enough damage to the economy, and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine demonstrates the urgent national security considerations with this type of offshoring.

Ford splits EVs and legacy autos into separate units – Ford Motor said Wednesday it will reorganize operations to separate its electric and internal combustion engine businesses into different units within the automaker. The company expects the move will streamline its growing electric vehicle business and maximize profits. It's a similar strategy to how Ford is operating its Ford Pro commercial vehicle business under CEO Jim Farley's "Ford+" turnaround plan. Ford also upped its expected investment in EVs and other technologies to $50 billion by 2026, up from a previously announced $30 billion through 2025. It plans to spend $5 billion on EVs this year, double its 2021 total. "We're announcing one of the biggest changes in our history today," Farley said Wednesday morning. Separating the operations but keeping them in-house goes halfway to appeasing some Wall Street analysts who have been pressuring legacy automakers such as Ford to spin off their electric vehicle operations to capture value that investors have been awarding some EV start-ups.

Weekly Gasoline Prices: Highest Since 2008 -- As of February 28, the price of Regular and Premium were up eight cents each from the previous week and at their highest since 2008. According to GasBuddy.com, California has the highest average price for Regular at $4.81 and Arkansas has the cheapest at $3.23. The WTIC end-of-day spot price closed at 95.72 and is up 4.1% from last week. How far are we from the interim high prices of 2011 and the all-time highs of 2008? Here's a visual answer. The next chart is a monthly chart overlay of West Texas Light Crude, Brent Crude, and unleaded gasoline end-of-day spot prices (GASO). In this monthly chart, the WTIC end-of-day spot price closed at 95.72, up 4.1% from last week. The volatility in crude oil and gasoline prices has been clearly reflected in recent years in both the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE). For additional perspective on how energy prices are factored into the CPI, see What Inflation Means to You: Inside the Consumer Price Index. The chart below offers a comparison of the broader aggregate category of energy inflation since 2000, based on categories within the Consumer Price Index (commentary here). Here are some additional commentaries related to gasoline prices:

AAR: February Rail Carloads and Intermodal Up Year-over-year; Still Soft - From the Association of American Railroads (AAR) Rail Time Indicators. Graphs and excerpts reprinted with permission. U.S. rail carloads were up 11.0% in February 2022 over February 2021, but that’s misleading — the big percentage gain is mainly a function of weak carloads in February 2021 caused by severe winter storms back then in Texas and elsewhere. (The third week of February 2021 had the fewest rail carloads of any week in our records going back to 1988.) For the first two months of 2022, carloads were up 3.6% ...U.S. intermodal volume in February 2022 was up 1.4% over last year This graph from the Rail Time Indicators report shows the six-week average of U.S. Carloads in 2019, 2020 and 2021:Total carloads were 915,329 in February 2022, an average of 228,832 per week. Other than February 2020, that’s the lowest weekly average for a February since sometime before 1988, when our U.S. rail traffic data begin.The second graph shows the six-week average (not monthly) of U.S. intermodal in 2019, 2020 and 2021: (using intermodal or shipping containers):Volume in February 2022 was 1.03 million, up 1.4% (14,294 containers and trailers) over February 2021. The weekly average in February 2022 was 238,220, well below the first half 2021 weekly average of 282,004 and the second half 2021 average of 261,938. The two-month total in 2022 was 2.03 million. Since 2016, only 2020 had a lower January-February total.

February Dallas Fed Manufacturing: Slower Expansion The Dallas Fed has released its Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey for February. The latest general business activity index came in at 14, up 12 from last month. All figures are seasonally adjusted.Here is an excerpt from the latest report:Texas factory activity continued to increase but at a slightly slower pace in February, according to business executives responding to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey. The production index, a key measure of state manufacturing conditions, came in at 14.5, down two points from January but still indicative of above-average output growth.Expectations regarding future manufacturing activity pushed higher in February. The future production index rose from 38.0 to 42.1, and the future general business activity index came in at 20.6, up four points from January. Other measures of future manufacturing activity such as capital expenditures and employment showed mixed movements but remained solidly in positive territory.Monthly data for this indicator only dates back to 2004, so it is difficult to see the full potential of this indicator without several business cycles of data. Nevertheless, it is an interesting and important regional manufacturing indicator. Here is a snapshot of the complete TMOS.

February Regional Fed Manufacturing Overview - Five out of the twelve Federal Reserve Regional Districts currently publish monthly data on regional manufacturing: Dallas, Kansas City, New York, Richmond, and Philadelphia.Regional manufacturing surveys are a measure of local economic health and are used as a representative for the larger national manufacturing health. They have been used as a signal for business uncertainty and economic activity as a whole. Manufacturing makes up 12% of the country's GDP. The other 6 Federal Reserve Districts do not publish manufacturing data. For these, the Federal Reserve’s Beige Book offers a short summary of each districts’ manufacturing health. The Chicago Fed published their Midwest Manufacturing Index from July 1996 through December of 2013. Five out of the twelve Federal Reserve Regional Districts currently publish monthly data on regional manufacturing: Dallas, Kansas City, New York, Richmond, and Philadelphia. The latest average of the five for February is 12.6, down from the previous month.

Chicago PMI Slid in February -The latest Chicago Purchasing Manager's Index, or the Chicago Business Barometer, fell to 56.3 in February from 65.2 in Decvember, which is still in expansion territory. Values above 50.0 indicate expanding manufacturing activity.Here is an excerpt from the press release:The Chicago Business BarometerTM, produced with MNI, fell 8.9 points to 56.3 in February, weakening for the first time since November 2021. New Orders slowed, with almost a quarter of firms surveyed seeing a decline. [Source] Let's take a look at the Chicago PMI since its inception.

ISM® Manufacturing index Increased to 58.6% in February - The ISM manufacturing index indicated expansion. The PMI® was at 58.6% in February, up from 57.6% in January. The employment index was at 52.9%, down from 54.5% last month, and the new orders index was at 61.7%, up from 57.9%.From ISM: Manufacturing PMI® at 58.6% February 2022 Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business® “The February Manufacturing PMI® registered 58.6 percent, an increase of 1 percentage point from the January reading of 57.6 percent. This figure indicates expansion in the overall economy for the 21st month in a row after a contraction in April and May 2020. The New Orders Index registered 61.7 percent, up 3.8 percentage points compared to the January reading of 57.9 percent. The Production Index registered 58.5 percent, an increase of 0.7 percentage point compared to the January reading of 57.8 percent. The Prices Index registered 75.6 percent, down 0.5 percentage point compared to the January figure of 76.1 percent. The Backlog of Orders Index registered 65 percent, 8.6 percentage points higher than the January reading of 56.4 percent. The Employment Index registered 52.9 percent, 1.6 percentage points lower than the January reading of 54.5 percent. The Supplier Deliveries Index registered 66.1 percent, an increase of 1.5 percentage points compared to the January figure of 64.6 percent. The Inventories Index registered 53.6 percent, 0.4 percentage point higher than the January reading of 53.2 percent. The New Export Orders Index registered 57.1 percent, up 3.4 percentage points compared to the January reading of 53.7 percent. The Imports Index registered 55.4 percent, a 0.3-percentage point increase from the January reading of 55.1 percent.” This suggests manufacturing expanded at a slightly faster pace in February than in January.

February Markit Manufacturing: Activity Rebounds - The February US Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index conducted by Markit came in at 57.3, up 1.1 from the final January figure.Here is an excerpt from IHS Markit in their latest press release: Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at IHS Markit said:“The US manufacturing sector rebounded in February after the Omicron wave brought production close to a standstill in January. However, output remains heavily constrained both by ongoing raw material supply bottlenecks and labor shortages, albeit with some signs that the supply chain crisis has continued to ease. The decline in virus case numbers should also help alleviate labor shortages as we head into the spring. “Demand is clearly continuing to run well ahead of supply, meaning it is a sellers’ market for a wide variety of goods. Although the survey’s price gauges covering companies’ costs and selling prices are off the peaks seen last year, they remain very high by historical standards and point to persistent elevated inflation in coming months. With rising oil prices adding further to soaring costs, and the Ukraine crisis likely to add to global supply disruptions, the inflation outlook is an increasing concern. “With the survey data collected prior to the escalation of the conflict in Ukraine, the full impact of the situation is yet to appear in the data. Supply chains are likely to be further disrupted, with existing shortages exacerbated by safety stock building, and prices will likely come under further upward pressure. Perhaps most important will be the effect on business optimism and whether the improvement in prospects seen in February will be reversed, which could lead to reduced spending and investment.” [Press Release] Here is a snapshot of the series since mid-2012.

Growth Hindered by “Supply Chain Disruptions, Capacity Constraints, Inflation, Logistical Challenges, Labor Shortages” -Growth in February at companies outside the manufacturing sector was held down “by supply chain disruptions, capacity constraints, inflation, logistical challenges, and labor shortages,” the ISM Services PMI reported today.The ISM Services PMI is based on a panel of business executives (the “respondents”) who report how their own companies did that month compared to the prior month. The panel includes executives of companies of all sizes across the vast array on industries other than manufacturing, ranging from agriculture and construction to professional, scientific & technical services (the industries are listed below).“These conditions have affected the ability of panelists’ businesses to meet demand, leading to a cooling in business activity and economic growth,” said the ISM report.The report indicated that these industries overall grew at a pace that was above average established in the decade 2010-2019, but slower than the blistering record pace that started in March 2021.And this is now everywhere: The inability to meet demand – and even to accept new orders – due to “supply chain disruptions, capacity constraints, inflation, logistical challenges, and labor shortages.” And they put a damper on business and economic growth. Here are some of the things the executives said:

• Executive in Professional, Scientific & Technical Services: “Staffing shortages, supply chain disruptions and rising inflation continue to impact the world economy. Companies are struggling to hire direct employees and non-employee labor because wages continue to increase for both. The Great Resignation is real: Employees, contractors and consultants continue to quit their jobs and engagements for opportunities that pay more and have more flexible work options. Millions of light industrial jobs remain open in the U.S., with limited interest from job seekers. Severe labor shortages are expected well into 2022. Corporations need to increase wages and salaries to attract talent and get work done. Faster wage growth is expected to lead to increased inflation.”
• Executive in Construction: “We are getting price increases with no notice. For example, our engineered wood products supplier gave us a 10 percent to 20 percent (based on SKU) increase, effective immediately. We are also struggling to get materials. Suppliers cite poor employee attendance, elevated employee turnover, and positions open longer than normal as they struggle to fill them.”

Russia’s War in Ukraine Could Spur Another Global Chip Shortage Ukraine is home to half of the world's neon gas, which is critical for manufacturing semiconductor chips. - ON THURSDAY MORNING, explosions rocked at least seven cities in Ukraine, heralding the start of a full-scale Russian invasion. Among Putin’s first targets was Odessa, a seaside city huddled around the Black Sea, and one of the country’s busiest ports. But it is also home to a little-known company called Cryoin, which plays a big role in the global production of semiconductors. Cryoin makes neon gas, a substance used to power the lasers that etch patterns into computer chips. It supplies companies in Europe, Japan, Korea, China, and Taiwan, but most of its neon is shipped to the US, the company told WIRED. Now analysts are warning that the ripple effects caused by disruption to Cryoin’s supply could be felt around the world. Cryoin’s production of neon and other gases ground to a halt on Thursday as the invasion began, says business development director Larissa Bondarenko. “We decided that [our employees] should stay at home for the next couple of days until the situation is clearer, to make sure that everyone is safe,” she says, adding there was no damage to the facility as of Monday. Despite plans to restart production over the weekend, missiles over Odesa meant it was still too dangerous. Bondarenko, who lives half an hour away from the site by car, says she has been sleeping in her basement. “Thank God we have one in our house.” Semiconductors act as the technological brains in our phones, laptops, smart homes, and even cars. The industry is already wrestling with shortages as it struggles to keep up with pandemic demand for devices. In 2021, chip shortages restricted production for almost every major carmaker, with companies like General Motors shutting entire factories as a result. Apple, one of the world’s largest chip buyers, told manufacturers in October that it would make 10 million fewer iPhones in 2021 than planned due to chip shortages, according to Bloomberg. But Russian aggression in Ukraine is making the industry nervous that these shortages could be intensified by a repeat of 2014, when prices for neon gas spiked by 600 per cent in response to the annexation of Crimea. Last week, US and Japanese governments were scrambling to make sure that will not happen again, pressuring their chip industries to find alternative sources of this obscure gas before it’s too late. Ukraine is just one of a series of choke points in the global semiconductor industry. Around half of the world’s neon gas comes from the country, TechCet, an electronic materials advisory firm which advises some of the world’s biggest chipmakers including Intel and Samsung, told WIRED.

Who can fix the price tags? U.S. businesses hit by labor shortages, inflation (Reuters) - In the U.S. Midwest one retailer planned to raise prices but did not have enough floor staff to physically change the tags. In the South, a high-end restaurant chain let employees "shift surf" among the eateries it owned, tailoring their schedules and maximizing their moneymaking. But the new system left some establishments short-staffed. In Alaska and Utah, job candidates skipped scheduled interviews and new hires failed to show up for their first day of work. Those stories and others were showcased in the Federal Reserve's latest Beige Book, a periodic snapshot of the U.S. economy as relayed by the central bank's business contacts from coast to coast. They highlighted how high inflation and labor shortages are colliding, sometimes producing outcomes that seem scripted for late-night talk show monologues. The Beige Book anecdotes also show why Fed Chair Jerome Powell will go ahead with raising interest rates this month despite rising economic uncertainty from Russia's invasion of Ukraine. The main reason for the Fed's imminent move, as Powell made clear on Wednesday, is to tamp down inflation, running at three times the Fed's 2% target. But in his monetary policy update to Congress Wednesday, Powell also flagged the "widespread" improvements in labor market conditions. He noted that low-wage workers alone were getting wage hikes that outpaced high inflation. He added that: "employers are having difficulties filling job openings, an unprecedented number of workers are quitting to take new jobs, and wages are rising at their fastest pace in many years." The Beige Book noted that many firms told the Cleveland Fed employee turnover was high "for various reasons, including a greater desire to work remotely, receive higher wages, change careers, or find better working conditions." "Government employees may have benefits but working for lower pay than the pizza delivery guy is very demoralizing," a contact told the Minneapolis Fed, explaining why public sector workers are seeking other jobs. Some firms told the Richmond Fed that even after raising pay and adding benefits, they still lost workers "to companies who were willing to pay higher wages or were fully remote." By raising interest rates, Powell hopes to slow the demand for not just for goods, services and houses, but also for workers, bringing it into better alignment with the limited supply.

 ISM® Services Index Decreased to 56.5% in February -- The ISM® Services index was at 56.5%, down from 59.9% last month. The employment index decreased to 48.5%, from 52.3%. Note: Above 50 indicates expansion, below 50 in contraction. From the Institute for Supply Management: Services PMI® at 56.5% February 2022 Services ISM® Report On Business® “In February, the Services PMI® registered 56.5 percent, 3.4 percentage points below January's reading of 59.9 percent. The Business Activity Index registered 55.1 percent, a decrease of 4.8 percentage points compared to the reading of 59.9 percent in January, and the New Orders Index figure of 56.1 percent is 5.6 percentage points lower than the January reading of 61.7 percent. The employment index decreased to 48.5%, from 52.3% the previous month.

Continuing claims continue near 50 year lows as the Omicron tsunami continues to recede - Initial claims (blue) declined 18,000 to 215,000 (vs. the pandemic low of 188,000 on December 4). The 4 week average (red) declined 6,000 to 230,500 (vs. the pandemic low of 199,750 on December 25). Continuing claims (gold, right scale) increased 2,000 to 1,476,000, (vs. 1,474,000 last week, which was the lowest number in over 50 years): The Omicron tsunami has continued to recede, and with it the recent increase in initial claims. I still suspect we have seen the lows in initial claims for this expansion. The decline in continuing claims to a 50 year+ low means that the record tightness in the jobs market isn’t going away anytime fast. There will be continuing upward pressure on wages. I don’t think this has any particular ramifications for tomorrow’s jobs report, but in general I am expecting monthly job gains to slow over the coming few months.

 ADP: Private Employment Increased 475,000 in February -- From ADP: Private sector employment increased by 475,000 jobs from January to February according to the February​ ADP® National Employment ReportTM. Broadly distributed to the public each month, free of charge, the ADP National Employment Report is produced by the ADP Research Institute® in collaboration with Moody’s Analytics. The report, which is derived from ADP’s actual data of those who are on a company’s payroll, measures the change in total nonfarm private employment each month on a seasonally-adjusted basis “Hiring remains robust but capped by reduced labor supply post-pandemic. Last month large companies showed they are well-poised to compete with higher wages and benefit offerings, and posted the strongest reading since the early days of the pandemic recovery,” said Nela Richardson, chief economist, ADP. “Small companies lost ground as they continue to struggle to keep pace with the wages and benefits needed to attract a limited pool of qualified workers.” This was above the consensus forecast of 320,000 for this report. The BLS report will be released Friday, and the consensus is for 400 thousand non-farm payroll jobs added in February. The ADP report has not been very useful in predicting the BLS report, but this suggests a solid February BLS report.

ADP Embarrasses Itself With Almost A Million Job 'Revision' To January's Dismal Data -- Following January's dismal 300k job-loss ADP print, which was dramatically worse than the official BLS payrolls print, it appears the private employment survey has some catching up to do with analysts expecting a 375k jump in jobs in February. The good news, ADP reports US companies added 475k job in Feb (more than expected); but ADP embarrassed itself greatly with a simply unbelievable revision for January from the -301k initial print to a massive +509k print revised!! Some context for January's revision!! This is the 14th straight month of job gains (given the revision in Dec), but small businesses saw sizable job losses in February and Services jobs dominated the gains. “Hiring remains robust but capped by reduced labor supply post-pandemic. Last month large companies showed they are well-poised to compete with higher wages and benefit offerings, and posted the strongest reading since the early days of the pandemic recovery,” said Nela Richardson, chief economist, ADP. “Small companies lost ground as they continue to struggle to keep pace with the wages and benefits needed to attract a limited pool of qualified workers.” But we are sure president Biden's plan to raise minimum wages to $15 will help that right?

February Employment Report: 678 thousand Jobs, 3.8% Unemployment Rate --From the BLS: Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 678,000 in February, and the unemployment rate edged down to 3.8 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Job growth was widespread, led by gains in leisure and hospitality, professional and business services, health care, and construction.The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for December was revised up by 78,000, from +510,000 to +588,000, and the change for January was revised up by 14,000, from +467,000 to +481,000. With these revisions, employment in December and January combined is 92,000 higher than previously reported. The first graph shows the year-over-year change in total non-farm employment since 1968.In February, the year-over-year change was 6.67 million jobs. This was up significantly year-over-year. Total payrolls increased by 678 thousand in February. Private payrolls increased by 654 thousand, and public payrolls increased 24 thousand.Payrolls for December and January were revised up 92 thousand, combined.The second graph shows the job losses from the start of the employment recession, in percentage terms. The current employment recession was by far the worst recession since WWII in percentage terms. However, the current employment recession, 24 months after the onset, is now significantly better than the worst of the "Great Recession".The third graph shows the employment population ratio and the participation rate. The Labor Force Participation Rate increased to 62.3% in February, from 62.2% in January. This is the percentage of the working age population in the labor force.The Employment-Population ratio increased to 59.9% from 59.7% (blue line). I'll post the 25 to 54 age group employment-population ratio graph later.The fourth graph shows the unemployment rate. The unemployment rate decreased in February to 3.8% from 4.0% in January. This was above consensus expectations; and November and December payrolls were revised up by 92,000 combined. ...

Employment in February by Menzie Chinn -Nonfarm payroll surprises (release) on upside 675K vs. Bloomberg consensus 400K, private NFP 654K vs 478K. The 90% confidence interval for changes is +/- 120K (BLS). Still, the upside surprise does not change the general pattern of key business cycle indicators. Figure 1: Nonfarm payroll employment from February release (chartreuse), January (red), December ’21 (teal), Bloomberg consensus for February (pink square), all in 000’s, s.a. February consensus calculated adding Bloomberg consensus of 3/1 to January preliminary. Source: BLS, Bloomberg, author’s calculations. Figure 2: Nonfarm payroll employment (dark blue), Bloomberg consensus of 3/1 (blue +), industrial production (red), personal income excluding transfers in Ch.2012$ (green), manufacturing and trade sales in Ch.2012$ (black), consumption in Ch.2012$ (light blue), and monthly GDP in Ch.2012$ (pink), all log normalized to 2020M02=0. NBER defined recession dates, peak-to-trough, shaded gray. Source: BLS, Federal Reserve, BEA, via FRED, IHS Markit (nee Macroeconomic Advisers) (3/1/2022 release), NBER, and author’s calculations. Last observation: Wage increases decelerated in February, and average real wages remain higher than pre-pandemic levels.Figure 3: Average hourly earnings in nonfarm payroll employment (production and nonsupervisory), in $/hour (black), CPI (chartreuse), both in logs 2020M02=0. NBER defined recession dates peak-to-trough. Source: BLS, NBER, and author’s calculations. More discussion at CR, Reuters.

February jobs report: a Big Win! -There were two main trends I was looking for in this jobs report: The 6 month average of monthly gains, which was running at 548,000 in the 2nd half of 2021, increased in February to 582,000. Wage growth, which averaged 5.9% in the 2nd half of 2021, is now up 6.7% YoY. Aside from April 2020, this is the highest wage growth in *40 years.* We still have 2.105 million jobs to go, or 1.4%, to equal the number of employees in February 2020 just before the pandemic hit. At the current average rate for the past 6 months, that’s about 4 more months. Here’s my in depth synopsis of the report: HEADLINES:

• 678,000 jobs added. Private sector jobs increased 654,000. Government jobs increased by 24,000 jobs. The alternate, and more volatile measure in the household report indicated a gain of 548,000 jobs, which factors into the unemployment and underemployment rates below.
• U3 unemployment rate declined -0.2% to 3.8%, compared with the January 2020 low of 3.5%.
• U6 underemployment rate rose 0.1% to 7.2%, compared with the January 2020 low of 6.9%.
• Those not in the labor force at all, but who want a job now, declined -349,000 to 5.355 million, compared with 4.996 million in February 2020.
• Those on temporary layoff decreased -71,000 to 888,000.
• Permanent job losers declined -47,000 to 1,583,000.
• December was revised upward by 78,000, and January was also revised upward by 14,000, for a net gain of 92,000 jobs compared with previous reports.
• the average manufacturing workweek, one of the 10 components of the Index of Leading Indicators, rose +0.3 hours to 41.7 hours. This is a big jump, and is very positive.
• Manufacturing jobs increased 36,000. Since the beginning of the pandemic, manufacturing has still lost -179,000 jobs, or -1.4% of the total.
• Construction jobs increased, 60000. Since the beginning of the pandemic, -11,000 construction jobs have been lost, or -0.1% of the total.
• Residential construction jobs, which are even more leading, rose by 6,700. Since the beginning of the pandemic, 52,000 jobs have been *gained* in this sector, or +6.2%.
• temporary jobs rose by 36,000. Since the beginning of the pandemic, 240,400 jobs have been gained.
• the number of people unemployed for 5 weeks or less decreased by -286,000 to 2,131,000, which is only 8,000 higher than just before the pandemic hit.
• Professional and business employment increased by 95,000, which is 596,000 *above* its pre-pandemic peak.
• Average Hourly Earnings for Production and Nonsupervisory Personnel: rose $0.8 to $26.94, which is a 6.7% YoY gain.
• the index of aggregate hours worked for non-managerial workers rose by 0.7%, which is a loss of -0.8% since just before the pandemic.
• the index of aggregate payrolls for non-managerial workers rose by 1.0%, which is a gain of 11.2% (before inflation) since just before the pandemic.
• Leisure and hospitality jobs, which were the most hard-hit during the pandemic, rose 179,000, but are still -1,532,000, or -9.0% below their pre-pandemic peak.
• Within the leisure and hospitality sector, food and drink establishments increased 124,000 jobs, and is still -824,000, or -6.7% below their pre-pandemic peak.
• Full time jobs increased +642,000 in the household report.
• Part time jobs decreased -16,000 in the household report.
• The number of job holders who were part time for economic reasons increased by 418,000 to 4,135,000, which is a decrease of -255,000 since before the pandemic began.

SUMMARY: This was simply an excellent jobs report. The only (slight) blemishes I can find are the slight increase in the underemployment rate, and the increase in those part time for economic reasons, a big component of that underemployment rate. Everything else was positive, including *all* of the leading indicators in the report, plus the revisions to the last two months. Manufacturing turned more positive, with the recent decline in the manufacturing workweek almost totally reversed. Construction jobs are almost completely back to their pre-pandemic levels. Even labor and hospitality jobs, including food and drink jobs, made sizable gains - although at their current pace, it will take over half a year for those to return to pre-pandemic levels. Because real sales and income have not improved in over half a year, I expect the pace of job gains to slow considerably in the coming months. But not this month: this was simply a big win!

Comments on February Employment Report - McBride - The headline jobs number in the February employment report was above expectations, and employment for the previous two months was revised up by 92,000. The participation rate and the employment-population ratio both increased, and the unemployment rate decreased to 3.8%. Leisure and hospitality gained 179 thousand jobs in February. In March and April of 2020, leisure and hospitality lost 8.20 million jobs, and are now down 1.53 million jobs since February 2020. So, leisure and hospitality has now added back about 81% all of the jobs lost in March and April 2020. Construction employment increased 60 thousand and is now only 11 thousand below the pre-pandemic level. Manufacturing added 36 thousand jobs and is still 178 thousand below the pre-pandemic level. In February, the year-over-year employment change was 6.67 million jobs. This graph shows permanent job losers as a percent of the pre-recession peak in employment through the report today. This data is only available back to 1994, so there is only data for three recessions. In February, the number of permanent job losers decreased to 1.583 million from 1.630 million in the previous month. These jobs will likely be the hardest to recover, so it is a positive that the number of permanent job losers is declining fairly rapidly. Since the overall participation rate has declined due to cyclical (recession) and demographic (aging population, younger people staying in school) reasons, here is the employment-population ratio for the key working age group: 25 to 54 years old. The prime working age will be key as the economy recovers. The 25 to 54 participation rate increased in February to 82.2% from 82.0% in January, and the 25 to 54 employment population ratio increased to 79.5% from 79.1% the previous month. Both are still below the pre-pandemic levels and indicate that some prime workers have still not returned to the labor force. The number of persons working part time for economic reasons increased in February to 4.135 million from 3.717 million in January. This is lower than pre-recession levels. These workers are included in the alternate measure of labor underutilization (U-6) that increased to 7.2% from 7.1% in the previous month. This is down from the record high in April 22.9% for this measure since 1994. This measure was at 7.0% in February 2020 (pre-pandemic). This graph shows the number of workers unemployed for 27 weeks or more. According to the BLS, there are 1.702 million workers who have been unemployed for more than 26 weeks and still want a job, up from 1.691 million the previous month. This does not include all the people that left the labor force. Summary: The headline monthly jobs number was above expectations; and the previous two months were revised up by 92,000 combined. The headline unemployment rate decreased to 3.8%. The household survey indicated a solid gain in employment of 548 thousand, following a gain of 1.2 million last month. Both the prime age participation rate and employment-population ratio increased, but still below pre-pandemic levels, indicating some prime workers are still out of the labor force. And there are still 2.1 million fewer jobs than prior to the recession. Overall, this was another strong report. Visit website

Even Soaring Wages Got Crushed by Inflation in Hot Labor Market: Fed Gets More Rate-Hike Ammo (as if it Needed More) By Wolf Richter -The tight labor market and soaring inflation have been cited by various Fed officials as the top reasons for rate hikes starting on March 16. Even the lowest lowball measure that the Fed uses for its inflation target has already totally nailed the inflation requirement. Today’s jobs report nailed the other part.Both employers and households reported large gains in people who were working in February. The two measures differ: The reports from employers includes only their payrolls. The reports from households include not only W-2 workers but also the self-employed and people starting their own businesses, and there has been a huge wave of entrepreneurs trying to start their own thing.In addition, the labor force grew in February, indicating that more people have rejoined the rat race, for whatever reason, but still not enough, and the labor force remains below where it was before the pandemic, and massively below trend, and so the “labor shortages” persist – what Powell has called the tightest labor market in history. Employers added 678,000 people to their payrolls in February, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics today, bringing the total number of employees to 150.4 million. Over the past three months, employers added 1.75 million employees (purple line).The big constraint to more hiring still is the “labor shortage” – meaning that people are reluctant to rejoin the workforce, and if they do, they’re demanding higher pay and better working conditions. Households reported that the number of working people, including the self-employed and entrepreneurs, jumped by 548,000 in February, and by 2.4 million over the past three months, bringing the total to 157.7 million workers, including the self-employed (red line). The number of people who were either already working or who were actively looking for a job in the four weeks prior to the survey – that’s the “labor force” – jumped by 304,000 in February and by 1.86 million over the past three months to 164.0 million. This left the labor force down by only 457,000 from February 2020. But it remains far below trend: The “labor shortages” show up in the job openings, which are in the astronomical zone, with nearly 11 million job openings, up by 62% from two years ago, and have been in that range since mid-2021, according to the separate JOLTS data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. These job openings are not based on online job postings, but on what companies and government entities said their hiring needs were: The average hourly earnings, after a massive jump in January, just edged up in February to $31.58. Compared to a year ago, average hourly earnings jumped by 5.1%. This is a large increase beyond of the distortions during the pandemic when millions of low-wage workers were laid off while office workers switched to working from home, thereby inflating the average hourly earnings. The gains in earnings were larger in production and nonsupervisory jobs, where average hourly earnings rose by 8 cents in February to $26.94 per hour, up by 6.7% from a year ago. Beyond the distortions early in the pandemic, the gains in January and February (both 6.7%) were the highest since 1982: But neither that large overall average gain of 5.1% in hourly earnings, nor the even larger 6.7% gain for production and nonsupervisory employees was enough to overcome 7.5% CPI inflation, showing once again how inflation demolishes the purchasing power of labor. If hot inflation outruns earnings increases to this large extent for long enough, consumer spending will take a hit and economic growth will take a hit. This doesn’t play out over the next month or two, but over years. The mood of consumers has already soured due to this rampant inflation. But for now, consumers are still making heroic efforts to spend, and they outspent inflation, even as their income increases got eaten up, plus some, by this rampant inflation, and worse, as “real” (inflation adjusted) per-capita disposable income dropped for the sixth month in a row. For an economy that relies so much on consumers to spend, that kind of decline in real incomes will derail the economy. So bringing down inflation has moved to the top of the Fed’s priority. Powell has confirmed that. The Fed is light years behind the curve, but the data in this report gives it a lot of ammo for rate hikes going forward.

 Real Disposable Income Per Capita Down Again in January - With the release of last week's report on January's Personal Incomes and Outlays, we can now take a closer look at "Real" Disposable Personal Income Per Capita. At two decimal places, the nominal 0.10% month-over-month change in disposable income is cut to -0.47% when we adjust for inflation. This is a decrease from last month's 0.21% nominal and -0.32% real changes. The year-over-year metrics are -4.63% nominal and -10.08% real.Post-Great recession, the trend was one of steady growth, but generally flattened out in late 2015 with increases in 2012 and 2013. As a result of COVID pandemic stimulus measures, major spikes can be seen in April 2020, January 2021 (a December 2020 payment), and March 2021.The first chart shows both the nominal per capita disposable income and the real (inflation-adjusted) equivalent since 2000. This indicator was significantly disrupted by the bizarre but predictable oscillation caused by 2012 year-end tax strategies in expectation of tax hikes in 2013 and more recently, by COVID stimulus.The BEA uses the average dollar value in 2012 for inflation adjustment. But the 2012 peg is arbitrary and unintuitive. For a more natural comparison, let's compare the nominal and real growth in per-capita disposable income since 2000. Nominal disposable income is up 115% since then. But the real purchasing power of those dollars is up 39%.

UPS slashes pay for part-time workers as profits grow -- Thousands of part-time workers at the United Parcel Service (UPS) around the US were recently informed that their hourly wages would be cut, eliminating raises implemented in 2021 at some hubs as a means to attract and retain workers in the tighter labor market. Alex Sanchez, a part-time UPS worker in Ontario, California, for one year, said part-time workers at his hub had their base rate increased in 2021 from $15.33 an hour to $18 an hour. “We were told that the raise was permanent,” said Sanchez. At the end of January, Sanchez said he was informed that his hourly wage and those of every other part-time employee at UPS would revert back to $15.33 an hour. He claimed the wage cut resulted in many workers quitting. “Part-time workers are the backbone of the UPS operation. With inflation, $15.33 an hour is tough for workers and their families,” said Sanchez. “I work two jobs in order to make ends meet. I’m a married father of three. The $3 cut really takes a toll on our family’s budget.” UPS reported record profits in 2021 as it increased shipping prices; its profits grew nearly tenfold in 2021 to $12.89bn from $1.34bn in 2020. Its stock price hit a record high in February 2022. UPS is projecting more growth in 2022, with the expectation to hit 2023 financial goals a year early. The company approved a $5bn stock buyback program in August 2021. Teamsters local unions at UPS have been holding protests against the pay cuts for part-timers, which have been up to $6 an hour in cuts for some workers. Peter Nuñez, the UPS NorCal committee chairman and president of Teamsters Local 431 in Fresno, California, explained UPS used market rate adjustment wage increases outside contractually negotiated wages to help attract and retain workers in many areas, but the increases were stripped from part-time employees without warning, affecting about 4,000 employees in the region. “For them to eliminate that market rate adjustment, with no warning and no care for those employees who have been used to making that $21 an hour, it’s a pretty heavy hit to take if you’re a part-time employee now,” said Nuñez. “We don’t believe it’s just nor do we believe it’s fair and we’re looking to call the company out.” Ross Richardson, a part-time UPS employee in Indianapolis, Indiana, said he has worked 50 to 60 hours a week despite being classified as part-time through the pandemic. “We were never told it was a market rate adjustment raise and then out of nowhere they handed out a piece of paper on a Wednesday in early January and said effective the following Monday our pay would be reduced to the contracted rate of $15 an hour, after not receiving hazard pay and constantly short-staffed, having to do two and three people’s jobs,” said Richardson.

 Amazon closing physical bookstores, shops: report -Amazon said it will close 68 of its physical bookstores and shops in the United States and United Kingdom, Reuters reported. In a statement on Wednesday, the company said the latest store closures will vary by location, adding it will apprise its customers of the upcoming changes. “We’ve decided to close our A mazon 4-star, Books, and Pop Up stores, and focus more on our Amazon Fresh, Whole Foods Market, Amazon Go, and Amazon Style stores and our Just Walk Out technology," an Amazon spokesperson told The Hill. "We remain committed to building greAmazon said physical retail stores are still an important way for them to reach customers, adding it is working on multiple concepts including a fashion store in Los Angeles, Calif., and cashier-less grocery stores, according to Reuters. at, long-term physical retail experiences and technologies, and we’re working closely with our affected employees to help them find new roles within Amazon.”

In mid-winter, New York politicians act to drive the homeless off the trains -- In mid-February, New York City Mayor Eric Adams and New York Governor Kathy Hochul, both Democrats, announced an aggressive plan to get the homeless off the New York City region’s trains. Linking homelessness to crime, the “Subway Safety Plan” calls first and foremost for an increase of police officers in the system. Adams, a former police captain, and Hochul have already deployed 1,000 more cops to the trains this year. Under the new plan, teams of police will increase enforcement of violations such as sleeping in trains. The public unveiling of the plan highlighted the supposed expansion of services for the homeless, putting a friendly face on what is largely a police crackdown. This includes a small number of teams from other city agencies to provide “outreach” to the homeless and plans for streamlining the notoriously onerous intake process for shelters by creating an unspecified number of new drop-in centers. The plan also promises to increase the number of beds available under the city’s “safe haven” and “stabilization” programs, which offer slightly more privacy and security than standard shelters, by a combined 490 beds. For the sake of appearances, the plan makes vague references to increasing psychiatric beds without adding any specifics on care for the mentally ill. Among single adults sleeping on the street or in public spaces like the subway, psychiatric disorder rates are high. The Coalition for the Homeless estimates that approximately two-thirds of this segment of the population suffers from mental illness or addiction. However, the reality that the plan is at core a police action to forcibly drive the homeless out of the transit system and onto the street is revealed by much more than the grossly inadequate number of new beds for the tens of thousands homeless on any given night. The mayor’s proposed budget for the new fiscal year, which starts July 1, 2022, calls for a cut of $615 million from homeless services, including permanently axing 131 unfilled positions and spending less money for adult shelters. The proposed cuts amount to about a fifth of the budget from the Department of Homeless Services (DHS), from $2.8 billion currently to $2.15 billion. A significant piece of the budget cut is due to the end of pandemic-related federal funding, amounting to $500 million allocated to the agency. All told, the DHS is proposing a reduction in staff from 2,374 to 1,993 in fiscal year 2023. The proposed job and budget cuts come as the federal and state eviction moratoriums have been lifted, placing more people at immediate risk of homelessness. All sections of the Democratic Party are proceeding as if the pandemic is a distant memory, despite record infections and a horrific death toll from the current wave.

 Gov. Gavin Newsom proposes court-ordered mental health treatment for homeless people (AP) — California’s governor unveiled a plan Thursday to create mental health courts in every county, allowing treatment for more homeless people with severe mental health and addiction disorders but also compelling some of them into care, a move that many advocates of homeless people oppose as a violation of civil rights. Gov. Gavin Newsom said at a press conference that he has no intention of rounding people up and locking them away. Instead, he said his plan would offer a way for people to get court-ordered psychiatric treatment, medication and housing, preferably before they are arrested. Under the plan, which requires approval by the Legislature, all counties would have to set up a mental health branch in civil court and provide comprehensive and community-based treatment to those suffering from debilitating psychosis. People need not be homeless to be evaluated by a court. But if approved, they would be obligated to accept the care or risk criminal charges, if those are pending, and if not, they would be subject to being held in psychiatric programs involuntarily or lengthier conservatorships in which the court appoints a person to make health decisions for someone who cannot. “There’s no compassion stepping over people in the streets and sidewalks,” Newsom told reporters at a briefing at a mental health treatment facility in San Jose. “We could hold hands, have a candlelight vigil, talk about the way the world should be, or we could take some damn responsibility to implement our ideas and that’s what we’re doing differently here.”

The Lancet Child & Adolescent Health: At least 5 million children have lost a parent or caregiver due to COVID-19 since March 2020, updated figures suggest - The number of children estimated to have experienced the death of a parent or caregiver as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic has surged to more than 5.2 million globally, according to a new modelling study published in The Lancet Child & Adolescent Health journal. Estimates of the numbers of children affected by COVID-19-associated orphanhood and caregiver death nearly doubled in the six months from 1 May 2021 through 31 October 2021, compared with the amount after the first 14 months of the pandemic (March 1, 2020 through April 30, 2021). Globally, the new study suggests that two out of three children orphaned from COVID-19 are adolescents aged 10 to 17 years. Additionally, in line with evidence that COVID-19 deaths disproportionally affect men [1], three out of four children worldwide who experienced the death of a parent during the pandemic lost their fathers. Overall, children who experience the loss of a caregiver have an increased risk of poverty, exploitation and sexual violence or abuse, HIV infection, mental health challenges and severe distress, and in some contexts, increased vulnerability to gang involvement and violent extremism. The researchers call for evidence-based programs for children experiencing orphanhood to be urgently incorporated into pandemic response efforts, including programs that support economic strengthening, enhanced community and family support, and programs that avoid placing children in institutional care. The findings can aid national responses tailored to age and circumstances of affected children. “We estimate that for every person reported to have died as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic, one child is left orphaned or loses a caregiver. That is the equivalent of one child every six seconds facing a heightened risk of lifelong adversity unless given appropriate support in time. Thus, support for orphaned children must be immediately integrated into every national COVID-19 response plan. Such support should focus on three core components: preventing caregiver death through equitable COVID-19 vaccine coverage, containment, and treatment; preparing families that are safe and nurturing to support affected children (such as through kinship care, foster care, and adoption); and protecting children using evidence-based strategies to reduce risks of poverty, childhood adversity, and violence." Dr Juliette Unwin, lead author from Imperial College London (UK), adds, “sadly, as high as our estimates of orphanhood and caregiver deaths are, they are likely to be underestimates, and we expect these numbers to grow as more global data on COVID-19 deaths becomes available. For example, WHO estimates accurate data for COVID-19 deaths in Africa are limited, and the real estimates are likely to be 10 times higher than what is currently being reported. Consequently, these under-reported deaths mean that COVID-19-related orphanhood and caregiver loss is also drastically underestimated. Prior to the COVID-19 pandemic, there were an estimated 140 million orphaned children worldwide. COVID-19’s impact on orphanhood was first revealed in a study published in July 2021, which estimated that 1.5 million children had experienced the death of a parent or caregiver between March 2020 and April 2021 as a result of COVID-19 [3]. The new study increases this estimate to more than 2.7 million children for the same time period, by re-calculating the figures from updated COVID-19 death figures along with excess mortality data to account for indirect deaths associated with the pandemic (July 2021 estimates: 1,562,000 children vs latest estimates: 2,737,300 children). As before, the team estimated the loss of caregiver grandparents using United Nations household composition data for the proportion of adults aged over 60 years co-residing with children under 18 years, with or without a parent. These proportions were multiplied by COVID-19 associated deaths in the relevant age group to estimate the number of children affected, conservatively estimating that one death resulted in only one child experiencing caregiver death. For the entire 20-month period of the study, the team estimates a minimum of 3,367,000 children were orphaned worldwide, experiencing the loss of a parent. A further 1,833,300 children were affected by the death of a grandparent or older adult caregiver living in their own home. Overall, the number of children affected by the death of a caregiver due to COVID-19 exceeded the number of reported COVID-19 deaths (5.2 million children compared to 5 million COVID-19 deaths).

Mask mandates being eliminated throughout Texas school districts -As Texas hospitals continue to report shortages of staff and ICU beds, a decline in hospitalizations to levels last seen in late December has been used by state officials to reinforce the drive to scrap any remaining public health measures against COVID-19. The current downturn in the pandemic, however, is more apparent than real. On February 23, WFAA Dallas 8 reported that there were 4,832 COVID-19 cases, down from 4,970 the day before and “the fourth straight day officials have reported fewer than 5,000 new cases.” The report continues, “The state’s current 14-day average is 6,387 cases. This is the first time the average has been this low since it was 6,114 from Dec. 11-24, 2021.” A look at the Texas Department of State Health Services dashboard, however, shows that there were 4,693 “New Confirmed Cases” and 1,911 “New Probable Cases” on February 25, adding up to 6,604. And the 150 deaths, contrasted to the daily average of 173, hardly signifies “turning the corner” on the pandemic, or justifies its reclassification as “endemic.” Whatever the spin the corporate media put on these numbers, the fact remains that hospitals remain in a dire state. As a Victoria Advocate report admitted on February 22: “Here is the latest situation Friday, Feb. 11 to Thursday, Feb. 17: Hospital staff has never been in shorter supply, which deepens the strain on all departments, including emergency rooms, respiratory therapy and even labor and delivery. Without the capacity to take on new patients—and with equally thin resources elsewhere to transfer them to—doctors fear they’ll have to start making heartbreaking decisions about care in order to save the most lives possible.” Noting that the vast majority of COVID-19 hospital patients are unvaccinated, the article concludes, “Doctors say mask-wearing, hand-washing and social distancing are the best ways to slow down the hospital numbers in the short term, and that monoclonal antibody therapies for people with COVID-19 symptoms can keep them out of the hospital in many cases. They also say the only way to permanently slow down the spike in hospitalizations is to vaccinate a majority of the state.” This is in line with the mitigation approach, an abject failure previously promoted by the Democrats, who are now, as the policies of the Biden administration and Democratic governors nationwide show, increasingly adopting the homicidal herd immunity approach pushed by the Republicans. Since neither policy relies on science nor concern for the working class’s health and life but on prioritizing profits, any apparent or real dips in sickness and death will prove short-lived, as they have every other time following the relaxation of already inadequate mitigation measures. One by one, Texas school districts have dropped their mask mandates and other measures like social distancing, contact tracing and testing. Round Rock Independent School District, where over 600 students signed a petition in January to demand the enforcement of masking, provision of high-quality masks, reestablishment of testing and contact tracing and outdoor eating spaces, dropped its mask mandate on February 21. In Waco, where the school district had incurred a lawsuit by Governor Greg Abbott and Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton for refusing to rescind its mask mandate last fall, the school district will drop the mandate on March 4. Of the four original defendants in the lawsuit, Waco, La Vega, Midway and McGregor, only La Vega will retain its mask mandate, though its days are likely numbered after the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) released new guidelines Friday which discourage mask wearing in much of the country.

As over 10 children die from COVID-19 each day, all US states drop mask mandates in schools -- Despite the thoroughly antiscientific alteration to mask guidelines by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and the aggressive campaign by state and health authorities across the US to declare the pandemic over, the latest data on pediatric infections, hospitalizations and deaths betray an entirely different reality.The CDC evidently did not consult its own data on the record child deaths that have occurred, and continue to occur, during the surge of the Omicron variant of SARS-CoV-2, as consequences of the staggering level of infections and hospitalizations among children since early January. Over the last month alone, from January 31 to February 27, the CDC Data Tracker Demographics section has added 212 pediatric deaths, a rate of 7.5 children per day. Nearly 70 percent of these, 148, occurred in the last 13 days, a rate of over 11 per day. Finally, 84 were added across the five days from February 23-27, a staggering rate of nearly 17 per day. As of Sunday, the most recent update shows that 1,430 children have been killed by COVID-19 in the US since the start of the pandemic. Age data has been released for only 807,877 deaths, meaning the ages for 137,811 deaths, using the CDC’s current death toll of 945,688, have not yet been processed. While there are no dates attached to these figures, a troubling limitation in itself, the majority have been added over the past few months. Health care expert Gregory Travis has tracked this data set and found that over half of all child deaths have been added since November 2021, during the Delta and Omicron waves fueled largely by the full reopening of schools. The latest American Academy of Pediatrics (AAP) report for the week ending February 24, which uses different data sources from the CDC, recorded another 20 child deaths in 14 states across every region of the country. The AAP cumulative child death toll stands at 891, a vast undercount compared to the CDC’s demographics data. Indicative of the limitations, the report is missing five states which have never publicized age mortality data, four states which no longer publicize this information, and Texas, which now only releases the data once per month. Of the states with confirmed child deaths last week, Louisiana, Mississippi and California each added three pediatric deaths. These are the highest single week increases in these states since at least mid-November. The AAP report also shows another 126,774 child infections, the 29th straight week of over 100,000 child infections. An additional 474 children were hospitalized last week, a significant undercount because only 25 states plus New York City provide age information for hospitalizations.

DeSantis chides students for wearing masks -Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) on Wednesday criticized a group of students who donned face masks while he was making a visit to the University of South Florida.DeSantis had arrived at the school to discuss funding for a $20 million cybersecurity program. It was before he took the podium that he targeted the students who stood behind him wearing masks, according to WFLA, a local NBC News station.“You do not have to wear those masks,” DeSantis reportedly said to the students. “I mean, please take them off. Honestly, it’s not doing anything and we’ve gotta stop with this COVID theater. So if you want to wear it, fine, but this is ridiculous.”The seven students DeSantis addressed reportedly attend Middleton High School, which is located in Tampa, Fla., and were invited to the press conference, Hillsborough County Public Schools Superintendent Addison Davis confirmed to WFLA.“We are excited our students from Middleton High School were highlighted as part of the statewide focus around cyber security education,” Davis told the news outlet. “Our cybersecurity pathway at MHS has had tremendous success through students earning industry certifications, participating in internships and leading the way in computer systems and information technology. As always, our students should be valued and celebrated. It is a student and parents’ choice to protect their health in a way they feel most appropriate. We are proud of the manner in which our students represented themselves and our school district.”DeSantis has previously made an effort to end mask mandates in Florida schools and has threatened to withhold funding from school districts that implement them.Last month, he advocated for parents to have the ability to sue school districts if their child “was illegally force-masked this year in Florida,” WFLA reported.

High school teacher seen on video striking student retiring early -An Indiana high-school teacher who was seen on video hitting a student in the face during an argument on Friday has requested early retirement. Mike Hosinski initially planned to retire at the end of the school year from Jimtown High School, but the teacher decided to retire early after the video of him striking a student in the face went viral, the South Bend Tribune reported. The school confirmed his retirement in a unanimous vote on Monday evening, according to the outlet. According to a video of the Friday incident shared by ABC 57, Hosinski can be seen chasing a student down the hallway before pushing him against the wall. He points a finger at the student during a verbal exchange and then slaps him directly across the face. Hosinski then attempts to drag the student with him down the hall but the student collapses on the ground. Another school official witnessing the scene directs Hosinski away from the student. Jimtown High School is located in Elkhart County near the town of South Bend, about three hours outside of Indianapolis. Baugo Community Schools sent out a press release after the incident on Friday explaining that Hosinski, a 40-year veteran teacher, had confronted the student about wearing a hoodie in class. When Hosinski slapped the student, his head hit the wall behind him and he "suffered visible injuries," according to the press release. Later that morning, Hosinski asked to retire early. "The teacher, Mike Hosinski, is no longer employed by Baugo Community Schools and is not permitted on school grounds," the school said in the press release. "Any action that threatens to harm any student will be quickly, directly, and severely addressed. All Jimmies must be able to learn in a safe environment."

 How colleges and local governments can safely bring students back to campus -- Back in 2020, Cardi B made headlines when she spoke with then-candidate Joe Biden about an often-overlooked barrier to college success: the cost of transportation. The Grammy award-winning rapper explained that when she was a student at the Borough of Manhattan Community College, she often had to choose between buying a Metrocard (New York City’s transit pass) and eating lunch. Having to make this choice over and over again eventually pushed Cardi B out of college and stopped her from earning a degree. As the spring semester begins, millions of students across the country have been making the same choice: wrestling with whether to buy a bus fare, put gas in their car, pay rent, or feed themselves. Recent research from theSeldin Haring Smith Foundation found that community college students spend nearly $2,000 per year on transit costs. Just as troublingly, fewer than six in 10 primary community college campuses are within half a mile of a public transit stop, despite the fact that nearly all community college students live off campus. And students themselves recognize this as an issue: survey data from the emergency aid platform Edquity indicates that transportation is among the most frequently cited causes of basic needs insecurity among students, after housing.All this is taking place against a backdrop of a pandemic and economic crisis that have not only disrupted students’ educations, but upended their lives, with nearly three in five having trouble meeting their basic needs, like safe, stable housing and healthy, affordable food. The challenges of remote learning, coupled with the economic and public health effects of the pandemic, have caused college enrollments to plummet. According to FAFSA and other data, Black and Latino students, as well as those from low-income households, have been especially hard hit. And these groups were already experiencing educational and financial hardship before the pandemic: community college enrollment among Black and Latino students fell 19 and 16 percentage points respectively,, from fall 2019 to fall 2020. In short, the costs of transportation, from car insurance to public transit fares, impose an additional financial burden that can often be the difference between whether students return to college or not. As we look to the coming semester, it is essential that colleges and local governments work together to help bring students back to campus — because doing so can make a profound difference on students’ likelihood of completing their degree.

Testes found to viral reservoir for SARS-CoV-2 replication -In a recent study posted to the medRxiv* pre-print server, researchers used a suite of methods to detect severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) in the testis of patients who died from coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) to gain insights into SARS-CoV-2 tropism inside testis and its impact on male fertility.Human testis cells express angiotensin-converting enzyme 2 (ACE2) receptors, which mediate the SARS-CoV-2 entry to host cells. Several studies have suggested that men are more affected by SARS-CoV-2 infection than women; it is thus crucial to study SARS-CoV-2 tropism in testis and evaluate the impact of SARS-CoV-2 infection on male fertility.While previous studies have demonstrated testicular alterations promoted by SARS-CoV-2 infection, in-depth testicular pathogenesis, including the cellular, enzymatic, hormonal, and critical genetic alterations in the testes of COVID-19 patients, remains unclear. In the present study, researchers collected the testicles of 11 non-vaccinated male patients deceased from COVID-19 complications. They collected testicles through an incision on the median raphe of the scrotum within three hours of the patient's death. They incised fragments of testicular parenchyma and stored them in RNAlater® solution to perform viral and testicular genetic studies later. The authors tested collected samples for the presence of SARS-CoV-2 viral RNA by quantitative reverse transcriptase-polymerase chain reaction (RT-qPCR) with primers to amplify the envelope (E) gene. Samples showing a cycle threshold (C_T) ≤ 40 were considered SARS-CoV-2-infected.The control group comprised six patients who underwent orchiectomy due to prostate cancer suspicion, and their testicles were collected and used for TEM, histological, hormonal, and molecular analyses. The average age of test and control group patients was 63.9 ± 13.11 years and 58 years, respectively. None of the patients had a clinical history of previous testicular disorders. The RT-qPCR revealed the presence of SARS-CoV-2 RNA in the testes of 10 of the 11 patients. A nano-designed sensor using localized surface plasmon resonance (LSPR) also detected the SARS-CoV-2 spike (S) protein in the testes of 10 of the 11 patients. ProminentS-protein immunolabeling was observed in testes of all COVID-19 patients, suggesting that the SARS-CoV-2 tropism for testes was higher than previously assessed as conventional RT-qPCR protocol detected infected testes with a higher viral load only. The authors recommended developing sensitive techniques with improved detection sensitivity for the reliable detection of SARS-CoV-2 (even in a low viral titer) in testes.

The COVID Heart—One Year After SARS-CoV-2 Infection, Patients Have an Array of Increased Cardiovascular Risks --An analysis of data from nearly 154 000 US veterans with SARS-CoV-2 infection provides a grim preliminary answer to the question: What are COVID-19’s long-term cardiovascular outcomes? The study, published inNature Medicine by researchers at the Veterans Affairs (VA) St Louis Health Care System, found that in the year after recovering from the illness’s acute phase, patients had increased risks of an array of cardiovascular problems, including abnormal heart rhythms, heart muscle inflammation, blood clots, strokes, myocardial infarction, and heart failure. What’s more, the heightened risks were evident even among those who weren’t hospitalized with acute COVID-19.The new analysis in Nature Medicine examined a comprehensive, prespecified set of cardiovascular outcomes among patients in the US Veterans Health Administration (VHA) system who survived the first 30 days of COVID-19. The researchers estimated the risks and excess burden of cardiovascular outcomes per 1000 persons 12 months after COVID-19 using electronic medical record data from 3 large cohorts:

• 153 760 patients who used VHA services in 2019 and had a positive SARS-CoV-2 test result between March 1, 2020, and January 15, 2021
• 5 637 647 patients with no evidence of SARS-CoV-2 infection who used VHA services in 2019—the contemporary control group
• 5 859 411 prepandemic patients who used VHA services in 2017—the historical control group

Patients with COVID-19 were at increased risk of a broad range of cardiovascular disorders including cerebrovascular disorders, dysrhythmias, ischemic and non–ischemic heart disease, pericarditis, myocarditis, heart failure, and thromboembolic disease.At the 12-month mark, compared with the contemporary control group, for every 1000 people, COVID-19 was associated with an extra:

• 45.29 incidents of any prespecified cardiovascular outcome
• 23.48 incidents of major adverse cardiovascular events (MACEs), including myocardial infarction, stroke, and all-cause mortality
• 19.86 incidents of dysrhythmias, including 10.74 incidents of atrial fibrillation
• 12.72 incidents of other cardiovascular disorders including 11.61 incidents of heart failure and 3.56 incidents of nonischemic cardiomyopathy
• 9.88 incidents of thromboembolic disorders, including 5.47 incidents of pulmonary embolism and 4.18 incidents of deep vein thrombosis
• 7.28 incidents of ischemic heart disease including 5.35 incidents of acute coronary disease, 2.91 incidents of myocardial infarction, and 2.5 incidents of angina
• 5.48 incidents of cerebrovascular disorders, including 4.03 incidents of stroke
• 1.23 incidents of inflammatory disease of the heart or pericardium, including 0.98 incidents of pericarditis and 0.31 incidents of myocarditis

Patients with more severe disease—determined by whether they recuperated at home, were hospitalized, or were admitted to the intensive care unit—had higher risks. But the risks were evident even among those who were not hospitalized with COVID-19. Other subgroup analysis found increased risks regardless of age, race, sex, obesity, smoking, hypertension, diabetes, chronic kidney disease, hyperlipidemia, and preexisting cardiovascular disease.

Providence study: COVID vaccine effectiveness declines after 6 months without boosters - A study released in The Lancet Respiratory Medicine by Providence, one of the largest health systems in the United States, confirms the overall effectiveness of vaccines in preventing severe infection resulting in hospitalization from Covid-19, but also shows a substantial decline in protection after six months. Completed by a team of clinicians and scientists in the Providence Research Network, the study examined data from nearly 50,000 hospital admissions between April and November of 2021, finding that vaccines were 94% effective at preventing hospitalization 50-100 days after receiving the shot but fell to 80.4% 200-250 days later, with even more rapid declines after 250 days.In addition to examining the effectiveness of vaccines over time, the Providence study was also able to identify factors associated with reduced vaccine effectiveness. Key risk factors for a severe “breakthrough” infection included advanced age (80+), comorbidities such as cancer, transplants, chronic kidney disease, hypertension, or heart failure, the amount of time that had elapsed since being vaccinated, and the type of vaccine one received. For the latter factor, the study found that the Moderna vaccine offered the best overall protection over time, while the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine offered initial protection equivalent to Moderna’s but declined more rapidly over time. Persons receiving the Janssen vaccine also had higher odds of experiencing a severe breakthrough infection compared to Moderna. “This data helps us understand differences in waning protection by vaccine type and identify the key risk factors for severe breakthrough infections to help inform the targeting of potential vaccine booster programs,” said Amy Compton-Phillips, M.D., Providence chief clinical officer. “Unlike most other studies, our data stretched beyond six months, where we found evidence of rapidly waning protection, especially for patients 80 or older. We were also able to identify important differences by vaccine type and patient characteristics that should help inform potential booster programs.”

Booster critical as COVID-19 vaccine-induced antibodies wane in 6 months, don’t protect against omicron – A new study using serum from human blood samples suggests neutralizing antibody levels produced by two-dose mRNA vaccines against the original and early variants of the SARS-CoV-2 virus wane substantially over time, and offer essentially no protection against the omicron variant.The same Ohio State University lab found in a previous study, posted on the preprint server bioRxiv, that a third COVID-19 mRNA vaccine booster shot did produce effective levels of neutralizing antibodies against omicron. This study has not yet been peer-reviewed.“Our new work shows that two doses of mRNA vaccine do not offer protection against omicron, and even having a breakthrough infection on top of vaccine does not help much. But our earlier study showed that the booster can really rescue the shortcomings of the two doses,” said Shan-Lu Liu, the senior author of both studies and a virology professor in the Department of Veterinary Biosciences at Ohio State.The new research is published online as a First Release paper in the journal Science Translational Medicine.The researchers examined antibodies in serum samples from 48 health care professionals with experimental versions of the parent virus and the alpha, beta, delta and omicron variants. Serum samples were collected pre-vaccination, three to four weeks after a first vaccine dose, three to four weeks after a second vaccine dose and six months after the second vaccine.“There was a substantial increase in neutralizing antibodies after the second dose against every variant except the omicron variant,” said first study author John Evans, a PhD student in Ohio State’s Molecular, Cellular and Developmental Biology Program who works in Liu’s lab. “From the second dose to six months later, there was an at least five-fold drop in immunity, even against the parent virus.”Neutralizing antibodies that block viral particles’ entry into host cells are considered the gold standard of protection against COVID-19 infection.Twelve of the samples came from people suspected to have had a COVID-19 infection – at time points ranging from before vaccination to after two vaccine doses – based on a different kind of antibody testing. And though the findings suggested a breakthrough COVID-19 infection on top of vaccination increased immunity against most versions of the virus, antibodies from only one individual with previous infection reached levels that could put up a reasonable fight against omicron.“Overall, nobody in this study had good immunity against omicron,” said Liu, also an investigator in the university’s Center for Retrovirus Research and a program co-director of the Viruses and Emerging Pathogens Program in Ohio State’s Infectious Diseases Institute.The experimental viruses were what are called pseudoviruses – a non-infectious viral core decorated with different SARS-CoV-2 spike proteins on th e surface structured to match known mutations in the variants studied.

Pfizer effectiveness drops in younger kids - The Pfizer coronavirus vaccine is significantly less effective in children aged 5 to 11 than it is in older kids, a new study found, raising questions about the correct dose to give to the young. The study from researchers at the New York State Department of Health found that vaccine effectiveness against COVID-19 infection among children 5 to 11 declined from 68 percent to just 12 percent over the period of Dec. 13 to Jan. 30. Effectiveness was higher for those aged 12 to 17, declining from 66 percent to 51 percent over the same period. Possible reason: Children under 12 receive a dose that is one-third the size given to those 12 and up, which could explain the drop in effectiveness. The study notes that effectiveness for children aged 5 to 11 was better against severe disease and that vaccination is still recommended. The vaccine’s effectiveness against hospitalization among children 5 to 11 declined from 100 percent to 48 percent, compared with 85 percent to 73 percent for older children. Big picture: The results highlight the challenges that vaccines for children have faced. Pfizer earlier this month delayed the timeline for its vaccine for children under 5, saying more time was needed to test a third dose. The dose being tested in children under 5 is even smaller.

Pfizer February 2021 “Post Marketing” Vaccine Side Effects Tally Raises Alarms by Yves Smith - We are late to turn to a critical document obtained by FOIA by the Public Health and Medical Professionals for Transparency Documents. Called 5.3.6 Cumulative analysis of post-authorization adverse event reports of pf-07302048 (bnt162b2) received through 28-feb-2021. The publication of what ought to be regarded as an explosive revelation of the range and frequency of its Covid vaccine side effects has gotten barely any notice, even on Twitter. We’ve posted the document in full at the end of this post for your inspection. Unfortunately, it’s impossible to reach any definitive conclusions about this information because it isn’t a Phase IV clinical trial, where participants trials are tracked to capture any adverse effects that occur over an intermediate period of time. Instead, this report is based on a hodge-podge of voluntary reports into various systems across 63 countries, with the overwhelming majority coming from the US and UK, from December 1, 2020 through February 28, 2021. I find putting the start as of December 1 misleading, since the first shots in the US were administered starting December 14, 2020. So you wouldn’t even start to see what happens after a full two-shot regime until end of December, which means this is effectively two, not three, months of dataAside from side effect information not being gathered systematically and to a consistent standard, an even bigger problem is the lack of data about the denominator, the number and mix of vaccinated subjects. The lack of information about the underlying population means it’s impossible to determine the rate of these side effects. Recall that the initial rollout gave priority to the elderly, to at risk groups, and to medical workers. One of the things you’ll notice right away is that the side effects are far more common among women:The fact that the reports don’t even capture the gender of 7% of the respondents tells you how casual and haphazard an exercise this was. Even so, at least 71% of the total is female. Is this because the underlying population was heavily female due to overrepresenting the aged (women live longer than men) and medical workers (nursing and housekeeping staff are typically women and outnumber doctors, who skew male)? Or because one of the common side effects is the triggering or intensification of autoimmune diseases, and women are more prone to them? Or both?However, some who took an early look at the document discredited themselves by not bothering to understand its huge limits, and naively or disingenuously making claims about supposedly horribly high levels of bad outcomes among pregnant women, when there was no information whatsoever about how many pregnant women were vaccinated. Without that number, you can’t determine if those results were any worse than for a control of unvaccinated pregnant women.Due to this document being released pursuant to the Emergency Use Authorization, as opposed to a typical drug approval process, I’m not sure what if any standards governed its production. Readers who know the ins and outs of FDA regulations are very much encouraged to pipe up. The commentary from Reuters at the end of January wasn’t terribly enlightening:The document was submitted by Pfizer-BioNTech as part of its Biological License Application (BLA) to the U.S. Federal Drug Administration (FDA), Alison Hunt, an FDA Press Officer told Reuters via email.The BLA is a request for permission to introduce or distribute a new biologic product across states ( here ). The FDA reviews the information in the BLA “to make sure the vaccine is safe and effective and meets the FDA’s standards for approval.” ( here )This large number of reports comes despite the fact that, as Pfizer blandly warns using boilerplate language, the number of side effects is almost certainly understated:

Are medicines affecting our response to infections like COVID-19? -- The largest clinical review of immune responses to paracetamol, non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs) and opioid analgesics, with a focus on infectious diseases, has provided insights into unintended impacts of these commonly used medicines. The findings highlight the potential for some of these medicines to join the fight against old and new infectious diseases.Although research into these drugs has focused on their effects on pain and fever management, until now, their impact on the treatment of infectious diseases specifically was unclear. The findings highlight the need for more studies in this under-recognised area of research, with wide-reaching implications.Key findings of the clinical review

• For pain: Morphine suppresses key cells of the immune system and increases the risk of infection, particularly after cancer surgery.
• For fever: Antipyretics – e.g. Paracetamol, Ibuprofen, Aspirin – can reduce the desirable immune response when taken for vaccination.
• Aspirin could be an affordable and accessible therapeutic option for tuberculosis – which mainly afflicts poor countries, with beneficial results shown in animals and humans.
• Anti-inflammatory medicine indomethacin may reduce viral replication in Covid-19 but large-scale human trials are needed.

Researchers led by the University of Sydney’s Faculty of Medicine and Health opted for a ‘clinical’ review in order to have a broader scope to synthesise the available evidence, noting the importance of further research and trials regarding infectious disease responses.The research was unplanned and the findings unexpected, with lead author Christina Abdel-Shaheed saying they initially were interested in studying possible impacts of paracetamol (acetaminophen) during the pandemic, when people hoarded the drug in the first months of COVID-19. “We decided to study painkillers and fever medications generally and were amazed by what we found,” she said.

Melatonin as a safe and potentially life-saving treatment for COVID-19 -- As the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic continues, a number of different drugs have been examined for their potential efficacy in the prevention or alleviation of infection with the causative virus, the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). A new Cellular and Molecular Life Sciences study discusses the possible role of melatonin, an antioxidant and anti-inflammatory agent, in treating COVID-19. Melatonin is a molecule with high anti-inflammatory and antioxidant activity. This molecule blocks a variety of pathways triggered by cell damage or inflammation.More specifically, melatonin blocks ROS/RNS pathways, thus mitigating oxidative stress and damage to the cells, preventing mitochondrial fission and encouraging mitochondrial fusion, blocking the release of mitochondrial DNA, and preventing mitophagy, which is the phagocytosis of mitochondria.Melatonin thus enhances the synthesis of adenosine triphosphate (ATP), while reducing ROS levels. By inhibiting the enzyme matrix metalloproteinase (MMP) in the extracellular space, melatonin prevents damage to the matrix supporting cells within the tissue. With severe COVID-19, hypoxic damage is mediated by hypoxia-inducible factor (HIF)-1α, a marker of increased mortality. In fact, the rise HIF-1α in diabetics is a key contributor to the severity of COVID-19 in this subset of patients, as high glucose levels stimulate glycolysis within the inflammatory macrophage-monocyte cell subset.This enhances viral replication, causing high ROS levels while stabilizing high HIF1-α levels. Subsequently, glycolysis levels rise, which also causes cytokine levels to increase in a dysregulated manner.The activity of HIF-1α is suppressed by melatonin, which reverses the Warburg metabolic shift while also inhibiting the inflammasome and macrophage changes. This prevents thecytokine storm, inhibits pro-inflammatory enzymes cyclo-oxygenase and myeloperoxidase, and suppresses the inflammatory signaling molecule nuclear factor κB (NF-κB). This leads to increased cell survival, lower levels of lung damage, less mitochondrial damage, and higher levels of transcription factors and of superoxide dismutase 2 (SOD2). “'Clinically, melatonin treatment reduces the severity of SARS-CoV-2 infections in terms of lowering the seriousness of symptoms, decreasing the need for hospitalization (which simultaneously helps control health care exhaustion), reducing the duration of hospital stay when this is necessary, eliminating the need for mechanical intubation, and lessening the death rate.” To date, several clinical trials are currently being conducted to assess the efficacy ofmelatonin at doses from 2 mg to 500 mg daily, given to patients with varying levels of severe COVID-19. Earlier studies failed to show any toxicity, even at the highest doses used. Moreover, melatonin was predicted to be most likely to control SARS-CoV-2 infection. Future trials should include children and other people over a wide age spectrum to improve the generalizability of these results. Once the key facts of melatonin treatment are resolved, supplementation of melatonin could help protect cells and mitochondria against inflammatory damage through the Warburg effect.The authors of the current study indicate that melatonin has at least twice the efficacy of remdesivir or tocilizumab in reducing inflammatory markers in COVID-19. Both remdesivir and tocilizumab are currently being used under certain clinical constraints to treat COVID-19, though both have significant adverse reactions and must be given intravenously. Conversely, melatonin can be given orally and by any other route, without causing any known toxicity.In the current scenario where vaccine resistance is rising and vaccine distribution to remote areas of the world is limited, melatonin, used alone or along with vaccines/antivirals, could be part of the answer.

Study shows young, healthy adults died from COVID-19 due to ECMO shortage --Peer-Reviewed Publication --Nearly 90 percent of COVID-19 patients who qualified for, but did not receive, ECMO (extracorporeal membrane oxygenation) due to a shortage of resources during the height of the pandemic died in the hospital, despite being young with few other health issues, according to a study published in the American Journal of Respiratory and Critical Care Medicine. The Vanderbilt University Medical Center (VUMC) study, led by Whitney Gannon, MSN, director of Quality and Education for the Vanderbilt Extracorporeal Life Support Program (ECLS), analyzed the total number of patients referred for ECMO in one referral region between Jan. 1, 2021, and Aug. 31, 2021. Approximately 90% of patients for whom health system capacity to provide ECMO was unavailable died in the hospital, compared to 43% mortality for patients who received ECMO, despite both groups having young age and limited comorbidities. “Even when saving ECMO for the youngest, healthiest and sickest patients, we could only provide it to a fraction of patients who qualified for it,” Gannon said. “I hope these data encourage hospitals and federal authorities to invest in the capacity to provide ECMO to more patients.” Once a patient was determined to be medically eligible to receive ECMO, a separate assessment was performed of the health system’s resources to provide ECMO. When health system resources — equipment, personnel and intensive care unit beds —were not available, the patient was not transferred to an ECMO center and did not receive ECMO. Among 240 patients with COVID-19 referred for ECMO, 90 patients (37.5%) were determined to be medically eligible to receive ECMO and were included in the study. The median age was 40 years and 25 (27.8%) were female. For 35 patients (38.9%), the health system capacity to provide ECMO at a specialized center was available; for 55 patients (61.1%), the health system capacity to provide ECMO at a specialized center was unavailable. Death before hospital discharge occurred in 15 of the 35 patients (42.9%) who received ECMO, compared with 49 of the 55 patients (89.1%) who did not receive ECMO. “Throughout the pandemic, it has been challenging for many outside of medicine to see the real-world impact of hospitals being ‘strained’ or ‘overwhelmed,’” said co-author Matthew Semler, MD, assistant professor of Medicine at VUMC. “This article helps make those effects tangible. When the number of patients with COVID-19 exceeds hospital resources, young, healthy Americans die who otherwise would have lived.” In total, the risk of death for patients who received ECMO at a specialized center was approximately half of those who did not. “Because some patients die despite receiving ECMO, there has been debate about how much benefit it provides. This study shows the answer is a huge benefit,” said senior author Jonathan Casey, MD, assistant professor of Medicine at VUMC. “This data suggests that, on average, providing ECMO to two patients will save a life and give a young person the potential to live for decades,” he said.

Possible case of deer-to human Covid infection identified in Canada Canadian researchers believe they have found the first-ever instance of a deer passing the coronavirus to a human, warning that broader surveillance of wildlife is needed to prevent further mutations from developing and spreading undetected. In a paper published last week, but not yet peer reviewed, scientists say at least one case of Covid-19 in humans can be traced to a strain of the virus found in hunted deer. Biologists have previously found white tail deer populations infected with Covid in northeastern regions of the United States, as well as central provinces of Canada. While deer aren’t typically seen as a species that can easily pass on the virus to humans, experts had nonetheless speculated that transmission was possible. As part of their study, Canadian scientists took samples from hundreds of white tail deer hunted last fall in southwestern Ontario. After conducting nasal swabs and testing the lymph nodes of the deer, they found 17 of the 298 deer were positive for a “new and highly divergent lineage” of the coronavirus. The virus bears little resemblance to strains currently circulating in human populations. Instead, the closest genetic relative to the strain came from samples taken from humans and mink in Michigan two years ago, tweeted Finlay Maguire, an assistant professor at Dalhousie University and one of the paper’s authors. The researchers then compared the genetic makeup of coronavirus found in the deer to cases of the virus found in humans in the region. The team found one resident who had a strikingly similar strain of the virus and who had been in contact with deer. While the authors said limited sample data made it difficult to fully understand the genetic relationship between the strains, the timing and location of the infection suggested a deer was the probable source.

Aerosol physicist Lidia Morawska calls for long-term measures to combat COVID-19 pandemic - The recipient of numerous international awards for her scientific work, Morawska was included on Time magazine’s 2021 list of the 100 most influential people for the key role she played in highlighting the airborne spread of COVID-19 and assembling the data that convinced the WHO to change its previous position that coronavirus was not an airborne disease.The following is an edited version of the discussion with Professor Morawska.

 Omicron surge in Indonesia tops record for daily cases - A new record was set for daily COVID-19 infections in Indonesia, with 64,718 confirmed cases Wednesday last week. The Omicron variant, now the dominant strain in the archipelago nation, has fuelled a precipitous rise in infection rates over the past five weeks, rapidly surpassing the peak of last year’s catastrophic Delta wave. After reaching its summit of 56,757 cases last July, the Delta outbreak gradually subsided until daily case numbers remained below 200 through November and December. With the eventual introduction and transmission of Omicron, which the Indonesian government openly refused to prevent, official cases began climbing in mid-January. Numbers leapt to the hundreds, thousands, and tens of thousands in a matter of days, in one instance more than doubling after just one day. A further 61,488 cases were recorded on Wednesday, bringing the total to 5.3 million infections, the highest in Southeast Asia and 17th highest in the world. As Indonesia’s testing rate remains among the worst worldwide (around 286,000 tests per million people), the official tally can only provide a limited picture of the disease’s spread. The capital city Jakarta accounts for almost half the new cases, partly due to its relatively higher testing capacity compared with rural or remote regions. Other areas reporting numerous Omicron victims include provinces West Java, Banten, East Java, and Bali, although the infectious variant is suspected to have already spread far beyond the major island of Java. Less than a week after the Omicron surge began, nearly 20,000 hospital beds out of a national capacity of 120,000 beds dedicated for COVID-19 handling had been filled. Occupancy rates at 140 coronavirus referral hospitals in Jakarta are currently at 60 percent, up from just 5 percent in early January. Over 50 percent of hospital beds for COVID-19 patients in Jakarta, Yogyakarta, and Bali were occupied as of Monday. The death toll is also climbing fast, increasing to 257 deaths on Tuesday from single figures three weeks ago. Over 100 people died every day for the past two weeks, mostly in the capital. The previous Delta surge last July made Indonesia the global epicentre for coronavirus deaths, peaking at over 2,000 deaths a day. This was the result of a complete collapse of the country’s healthcare system. People seeking medical treatment at overcrowded hospitals in both major cities and provinces were turned away at the doors, causing thousands to die at home without proper care. Government statistics were therefore a serious underestimate of the real toll on lives.

Chinese mainland reports 87 new local COVID-19 cases Sunday - (Xinhua) -- The Chinese mainland on Sunday reported 87 locally transmitted COVID-19 cases, the National Health Commission said on Monday. Forty of the new local infections were reported in Guangdong while the rest were scattered in eight other provincial-level regions. Inner Mongolia and Guangxi each reported 11 cases, Tianjin reported nine, Hubei reported five, Shanxi and Heilongjiang each reported four, while Yunnan reported two, and Liaoning reported one, the Commission said in its daily report. A total of 147 imported COVID-19 cases were reported on Sunday, said the commission. Five new suspected cases, all arriving from outside the mainland, were reported in Shanghai, said the commission. No deaths from COVID-19 were reported on Sunday.

More than 120,000 COVID cases in New Zealand - The number of active COVID-19 cases in New Zealand has passed 120,000. The size of the Omicron variant outbreak has expanded more than a hundredfold in the past month. There were 22,152 new infections reported today, following 19,566 yesterday. There are 405 people in hospital. The death toll rose to 61 last Friday, with five deaths recorded in a single day, the largest daily number in New Zealand during the pandemic. This is only the beginning. COVID-19 Minister Chris Hipkins said today that the number of people in hospital with the virus could reach 1,000 or 1,500. This would be “challenging” for health workers, he stated. The positivity rate is very high, with about one in five people in Wellington, the capital city, testing positive, indicating there are many undetected cases. Less than 60 percent of people over 12 have received a third dose of the Pfizer vaccine, and just over half of those aged 5 to 11 have received a single dose, leaving many without significant protection against Omicron. The explosion of cases was not inevitable. It is the outcome of the Labour Party-led government’s decision in October last year to abandon its previous elimination policy. Since then, public health restrictions have been progressively lifted and the government has declared there will be no return to lockdowns. The government talks about Omicron washing over New Zealand in a wave, which will supposedly peak and then subside, causing minimal harm. In fact, as the entire pandemic has shown, allowing the virus to spread means there will be continuous waves. The virus can infect people multiple times, and mutate into new variants, continuing to cause large numbers of deaths, severe illness and disability. The only way to protect lives and people’s health is through a properly funded elimination strategy. Laboratories processing COVID tests have been overwhelmed with demand. Director-General of Health Ashley Bloomfield yesterday apologised for a delay in processing a backlog of 32,000 tests. Some people are waiting longer than five days for a result. In response to the crisis, the government sent over 9,000 tests to Queensland, Australia for processing over the weekend. Elspeth Frascatore, an emergency doctor in Auckland, wrote on the Spinoffwebsite that healthcare workers feel “overwhelmed” and “unseen” as politicians agitate for the removal of all public health restrictions. “COVID is not finished with us. It’s just getting started,” she warned.

Iceland says it wants ‘as many people as possible’ to catch Covid after lifting all restrictions - Iceland’s health ministry has said it wants “as many people as possible” to be infected with the coronavirus to achieve “widespread societal resistance”.The comments come as the nation prepares to lift all of its remainingCovid-19 restrictions on Friday, including a 200-person indoor gathering limit and restricted opening hours for bars.“Widespread societal resistance to Covid-19 is the main route out of the epidemic,” the health ministry said in a statement, citing infectious disease authorities.It added that to achieve widespread societal resistance, which is also referred to as “herd immunity”, “as many people as possible needed to be infected with the virus as the vaccines are not enough, even though they provide good protection against serious illness”.Iceland, with a population of approximately 368,000 people, has registered between 2,100 and 2,800 daily infections recently. More than 115,000 infections have been logged throughout the epidemic and 60 have died as a result of Covid.Poland is also joining Iceland in lifting all restrictions except mandatory face masks.Adam Niedzielski, the Polish health minister, said the lifting of most of the restrictions from 1 March was possible because the number of new daily infections and hospitalisations was falling significantly, and herd immunity was above 90 per cent as a result of vaccinations and infections.Discos and clubs can reopen on Tuesday, and the 50 per cent capacity limit on the number of people on public transport and in malls, restaurants, theatres and sports venues will also be lifted.State and regional administration workers can return to work in the office.Mr Niedzielski said mask-wearing in indoor public places will still be required, and those infected will still need to isolate for seven days to prevent transmission of Covid-19. The government will decide whether to lift the mandatory wearing of masks in coming weeks.

 Chicago area grapples with reducing road salt as chloride levels rise in waterways, Lake Michigan - During icy Midwest winters, a Chicagoan's step onto the sidewalk is often met with a familiar crunch underfoot. But salt, used to keep roads safe for driving and sidewalks safe for walking, comes with an ecological price: It ends up in our water, and once it's there, it's almost impossible to remove. As levels of chlorides continue to rise in Lake Michigan and exceed state limits in Chicago-area waterways, municipalities across the region are grappling with the urgent need to reduce the use of road salt in winter. In November, the Illinois Pollution Control Board issued an order giving the city of Chicago, the Illinois and Cook County departments of transportation, the Metropolitan Water Reclamation District of Greater Chicago and more than 40 other organizations 15 years to meet the state's limit, pending approval from the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. According to the board, the goal of the order "is not to avoid compliance, but rather to create a transparent tool, as authorized under the Clean Water Act, that allows incremental progress in reducing chloride while recognizing the issues presented in our State by the use of road salt during the winter months to maintain public safety." Tests performed between 2006 and 2017 show dozens of chloride readings above 500 milligrams per liter, the Illinois EPA's chloride limit. Some readings—such as a February 2015 test at Diversey Parkway on the Chicago River's North Branch—are more than twice as high. But ecological effects of chlorides on fish and insects begin to be seen at even lower levels, around 150 milligrams per liter, said Jennifer Hammer, the director of watershed programs and ecological restoration for the Conservation Foundation, which is working with the 48 municipalities and agencies. Adding salt into the soil or water has a ripple effect. Plants and trees don't get the nutrients they need, and increased saline levels can reduce species diversity in wetlands. For freshwater fish, and amphibians like wood frogs and salamanders, sodium chloride can interfere with their internal balance and harm reproductivity. "If we continue to behave the way we are, we're going to be causing a lot of problems for future generations to have to clean up after us,"

 Commercial floor cleaners found to produce as much aerosol pollution particles as public roads -A team of researchers from Indiana University, Purdue University, Université de Lille, Center for Energy and Environment and Edelweiss Technology Solutions, LLC, has found that people using commercial cleaners with certain chemicals in them may be exposed to as much particle pollutants as if they were sitting beside a public road. In their paper published in the journal Science Advances, the group describes their study of air samples taken in a room being mopped with a commercial floor cleaner and what they found by doing so.Makers of commercial cleaners have over the years taken to adding chemicals to their cleaners to make them smell nice—pine scents, for example, are quite common. But in so doing, the makers of such chemicals may be exposing their customers to high levels of secondary organic aerosols (SOAs).SOAs are types of aerosols that are known to irritate the lungs when inhaled. Some of the main sources arecombustion engines, such as those found in most automobiles. In this new effort, the researchers noted that prior work by others has shown that when monoterpenes interact with molecules such as ozone, SOAs are formed. Noting also that many of the chemicals that are used to make commercial cleaners smell better contain monoterpenes, the researchers wondered if such cleaning products are exposing people to SOAs. To find out, they outfitted a room at their lab with several devices that allowed for measuring monoterpenes, ozone levels and SOAs. They then used a commercial cleaner they knew contained monoterpenes to improve its smell, to mop the floor.In studying the air samples, the researchers found high levels of monoterpenes that interacted with natural ozone in the air. The result was high levels of SOAs being produced. The researchers found that the levels in the room as a person mopped a floor were similar to those a person would experience if they were sitting next to a busy road. In some cases, they found levels similar to sitting next to a road for up to six hours. They suggest more work is needed to find out if the SOAs being made by chemicals in cleaning agents are doing more than irritating the lungs of people who use them.

Watch now: Work to install temporary cover over toxic pile at AltEn has finished - Once marked by its lime green color, the estimated 99,000 tons of pesticide-contaminated distiller's grains and sludge at AltEn is now concrete gray.The heaping pile of solid waste created at the ethanol plant south of Mead is now entombed underneath a Posi-Shell cover, a mixture of clay, polyester fibers and Portland cement.At least for now. Consolidating several piles of wet cake into one and covering it -- a project that took six months -- is a temporary solution, the AltEn Facility Response Group has said. The six former suppliers of the biofuel plant -- Bayer, Corteva, Syngenta, AgReliant, Beck's Superior Hybrids and Winfield Solutions -- are exploring options to permanently dispose of the wet cake, samples of which have shown high concentrations of pesticides. "This will be part of the Remedial Action Plan that will be submitted to (the Nebraska Department of Environment and Energy) following completion of our analysis of remedial options," said Chris Tutino, a senior crop protection communications manager for Syngenta.After losing its license to sell the wet cake as a soil amendment, and after being shut off by area landfills, AltEn stockpiled the solid waste product on its site.The material, left out in the open, routinely came into contact with rainwater, which ran downstream across a University of Nebraska research farm, a Nebraska National Guard training site, and through private properties as it made its way toward the Platte River.Since August, environmental contractors hired by the facility response group worked to consolidate three separate wet cake piles into one, even replacing the ground underneath the piles with "clean soil" as part of the remediation efforts.

Climate change threatens chemical plants across the U.S. : NPR Nearly one third of the hazardous chemical facilities in the United States are at risk from climate-driven floods, storms and wildfires, according to a new analysis by the Government Accountability Office.The federal watchdog analyzed more than 10,000 factories, refineries, water treatment plants and other facilities that manufacture, store or use dangerous chemicals. They found that more than 3,200 of them are located in places where they face damage from sea level rise, hurricane storm surge, wildfires or flooding from heavy rain."Recent natural disasters have demonstrated the potential for natural hazards to trigger fires, explosions, and releases of toxic chemicals at facilities," the report's authors note.The report calls on the Environmental Protection Agency to require facilities to prepare for floods, power outages and other effects of climate change.Climate-driven storms have damaged numerous chemical plants, refineries and water treatment plants in recent years. The most stark examples have unfolded during hurricanes. In 2021, Hurricane Idacaused leaks and power outages at facilities from Louisiana to New Jersey. In 2020, Hurricane Laura forced tens of thousands of people near Lake Charles, La., to shelter in place after a local chemical plant was damaged and began leaking dangerous chlorine gas. And, in 2017, flooding from Hurricane Harvey caused massive sewage leaks from water treatment plants, and caused at least one chemical plant to catch fire and burn for days.

Camp Lejeune toxic water victims eye justice as pivotal House bill passes A bill that could allow military families to seek justice for decades of water contamination at Marine Corps Base Camp Lejeune in North Carolina passed with bipartisan support as part of a broad piece of toxics legislation in the House on Thursday morning. If the legislation goes on to receive Senate approval and become law, the Camp Lejeune Justice Act of 2022 would enable individuals who suffered from on-base water contamination to pursue lawsuits for their illnesses. The bill advanced within the Honoring our PACT Act of 2021 — an expansive act to improve benefits for veterans exposed to toxins — in a 256-174 vote, with 222 Democrats and 34 Republicans in favor. The Camp Lejeune Justice Act would allow those exposed — even in-utero — to water contamination at the base for at least 30 days between Aug. 1, 1953, and Dec. 31, 1987, to file a claim in the U.S. District Court for the Eastern District of Northern Carolina. To do so, the bill would essentially override a North Carolina legal hurdle that has otherwise made such suits impossible. “Anybody who served in the United States Marine Corps, and went for combat training, probably went to Camp Lejeune in North Carolina,” Rep. Matt Cartwright (D-Pa.), the Camp Lejeune bill’s sponsor, told The Hill on Wednesday. “So this is not just a North Carolina issue; it's a national issue.” “Thirty-four years of people were exposed to toxins in the drinking water at Camp Lejeune,” Cartwright added. Exposures to contaminants — such as trichloroethylene (TCE), tetrachloroethylene (PCE), vinyl chloride and others — at Camp Lejeune likely increased the risk of certain cancers, adverse birth outcomes and other health impacts from the 1950s through February 1985, according to the Centers for Disease Control’s Agency for Toxic Substances and Disease Registry (ATSDR). The Marine Corps first discovered specific volatile organic compounds (VOCs) in the drinking water generated by treatment plants on base in 1982, according to the ATSDR. Three of the plants had “historically supplied finished water to the majority of family housing units” and were found to contain VOCs, research from ATSDR stated. The ATSDR links kidney cancer, multiple myeloma and various leukemias to water contamination at Camp Lejeune. Retired U.S. Marines Corps Master Sgt. Jerry Ensminger attributes his daughter's leukemia to the time she spent in-utero at Camp Lejeune. Janey Ensminger died of the cancer at age nine in 1985. “We've got more documented evidence of what happened at Camp Lejeune than they have for Agent Orange,” Ensminger, who served for nearly 25 years in the Marines, added.

Tribes to get $1.7B for water rights settlements -The U.S. Department of the Interior will allocate nearly $2 billion to fulfill tribal water rights claims, the agency said last week. The Biden administration will draw $1.7 billion from a bipartisan infrastructure law, which includes $2.5 billion to implement the Indian Water Rights Settlement Completion Fund. Sixteen tribes and settlements will receive funding this year. "Water is a sacred resource, and water rights are crucial to ensuring the health, safety and empowerment of Tribal communities,” Interior Secretary Deb Haaland said in a statement. “With this crucial funding from President Biden’s Bipartisan Infrastructure Law, the Interior Department will be able to uphold our trust responsibilities and ensure that Tribal communities receive the water resources they have long been promised,” she added. There were 34 congressionally enacted Indian Water Rights settlements as of Nov. 2021. Tribes receiving settlements this year include: Aamodt Litigation Settlement (Pueblos of San Ildefonso, Nambe, Pojoaque, and Tesuque), Blackfeet Nation, Confederated Salish and Kootenai Tribes, Crow Nation, Gila River Indian Community, Navajo-Utah Water Rights Settlement and Navajo-Gallup Water Supply Project, San Carlos Apache Nation, Tohono O’odham Nation and White Mountain Apache Tribe. “Settlement of Indian water rights disputes breaks down barriers and helps create conditions that improve water resources management by providing certainty as to the rights of all water users who are parties to the disputes,” the agency added in a statement.

 Plastic labeling needs 'sustainability scale,' says new report -Labeling of plastic products needs a drastic overhaul, including a new "sustainability scale" to help consumers, researchers say. Plastic pollution is a growing global problem, with an increasingly complex mix of plastics found everywhere from the Arctic to Mount Everest. Simplistic, unhelpful labeling and low recycling rates even in the best-equipped countries are major barriers to tackling this issue. In a new paper, experts from the University of Exeter and the University of Queensland suggest a new internationally applicable labeling system that moves focus from recyclability to sustainability, is specific to the country and region of purchase, and informs the public about plastic additive content. "We need to empower consumers to make more sustainable choices," said first author Stephen Burrows. "Instead of 'yes-no' recycling labels, which are often misleading, a 'sustainability scale' could take account of recyclability but also other factors such as the environmental cost of production and potential human health risks from additives. "Requiring packaging to carry region-specific directions for disposal would shift responsibility away from consumers and towards regulators and plastic producers. "This is vital because the mix of plastic products is so complex and confusing, industry must be responsible for clear, accurate and accessible instructions on how best to dispose of plastic items. "The same is true for the chemical additives found in many plastics. These chemicals are added to plastics to give them certain properties such as color, flexibility and fire resistance. "Requiring producers to list all additives would be a major step towards informing the public and helping them make decisions regarding environmental impact and human health." The researchers stress that their recommendations should not detract from the urgent need to use less plastic—especially single-use items. At present, about 368 million tons of plastic is produced worldwide each year. Estimates of recycling rates vary dramatically. For example, Germany recycles 62% of its plastic waste—well above the European average of 30%. Meanwhile, China recycles an estimated 25%, while the figure in the USA is just 8%.

 Failure' or solution? EPA weighs plastics recycling plan -An emerging and controversial vision for reusing plastics poses a regulatory dilemma for EPA as it struggles to tackle plastic pollution woes amid a growing acknowledgment that traditional recycling will not be able to solve the problem.Facing an onslaught of public outrage over plastics pollution, companies are increasingly turning to new avenues to address the problem, including “chemical recycling.” But their solution has alarmed environmental advocates and ignited environmental justice concerns, placing EPA under pressure.While simultaneously grappling with mounting pollution realities, EPA is now scrutinizing technologies that convert plastic waste into new products. Industry backers of chemical recycling say it should be regulated as manufacturing. Environmental groups, however, counter that the process is actually a form of incineration and poses environmental and human health hazards.“I believe the general public has every right to be both skeptical and concerned,” said Denise Patel, a program director with the Global Alliance for Incinerator Alternatives, or GAIA, whose organization feels chemical recycling has hidden health costs.Chemical recycling takes single-use plastics and strips them down to their chemical state, creating products like fuel or other new plastic items. This has concerned environmental groups, who argue plastics are already largely an oil and gas product. Their use in fuel does not fit in with the pivot toward renewable energy that advocates envision.Meanwhile, industry support for chemical recycling comes as oil and gas companies face increasing pressure over climate change.Proponents like the American Chemistry Council assert that chemical recycling is critical for solving the conundrum posed by plastics, which are lightweight — a factor in climate considerations — since they are better for energy efficiency purposes. And a large group of backers, including major consumer brands, have thrown their weight behind chemical recycling. Many insist the technologies are essential for meeting recycling goals. Mars Inc., for example, has said its 2025 sustainable packaging plans hinge on the “advancement of chemical recycling at pace and scale and alignment of food safety regulations.”While EPA’s power is limited, a clear regulatory decision could be a major factor in how chemical recycling evolves. In September, the agency issued an advanced notice of proposed rulemaking for two technologies, weighing whether pyrolysis and gasification units should be regulated as solid waste incineration (Greenwire, Sept. 7, 2021).Industry members oppose that framing. “It’s a very flawed way of thinking about it,” said Joshua Baca, ACC’s vice president for plastics. “This is a process that breaks down material back to the molecular building block. Incineration implies that it’s the end of the life of a material.” EPA’s recycling plan shows the agency sees potential value in the technologies (Greenwire, Nov. 15, 2021). But groups who disagree are escalating their pressure on the Biden administration, arguing chemical recycling is at odds with environmental justice.

CBOT wheat hits 14-year peak on Ukraine crisis in volatile trading - (Reuters) - Chicago Board of Trade wheat futures rose by their daily limit to a 14-year high on Wednesday as the war in Ukraine raised major concerns about grain supplies that will be available from the Black Sea region. Corn futures reached their highest price since December 2012, when the market set an all-time record, before pulling back. Soybean oil retreated after touching a record high. The markets were volatile as traders assessed how long the Russia-Ukraine conflict would last and whether it would hamper spring crop plantings. Russia and Ukraine account for about 29% of global wheat exports, 19% of corn exports and 80% of exports of sunflower oil, which competes with soyoil. "That forces the market to pencil in no exports out of that region until spring and has the trade uncertain about what production in Ukraine will look like in 2022." The most-active wheat contract Wv1 on the Chicago Board of Trade ended up by the expanded 75-cent limit at $10.59 a bushel, its highest level since March 2008. The market set an all-time high of $12.14-1/2 in February 2008. Deferred wheat futures temporarily tumbled by the daily limit amid spread trading and some hopes that the crisis may only keep wheat off the global market in the short term, analysts said. "Global buyers of grains have been increasingly turning to the U.S., Europe or South America to secure supplies in the immediate term," ING said in a note. The most active CBOT corn contract Cv1 peaked at $7.47-3/4, the highest level since December 2012, before closing 3/4-cent lower at $7.25 a bushel. CBOT soybeans Sv1 ended down 27 cents at $16.63 a bushel. Soyoil BOv1 set a high of 77.02 cents per lb before closing 0.34 cent lower at 75.87.

 Controversial canal along South Platte River in Colorado now on Nebraska’s front burner after COVID aid windfall — Nebraska Gov. Pete Ricketts ramped up his push Wednesday for income tax cuts, a new state prison and a $500 million canal to claim water from Colorado, arguing that the state is expected to collect more than enough revenue to pay for it all. The Republican governor’s remarks came just days after a state board predicted that Nebraska will receive $775 million more than expected. That will leave lawmakers with nearly $500 million in available cash for new spending, plus a projected $1.7 billion cash reserve and $1.04 billion in federal pandemic money. “With these stronger forecasts, it makes it even more important that we hit upon all these different priorities,” Ricketts said at a news conference. Ricketts has identified the canal project between Colorado and Nebraska as a top priority, saying it’s the only way for Nebraska to ensure that it continues to get an adequate water supply from the South Platte River. Colorado’s fast-growing population has put more pressure on the river, but a century-old compact between the states allows Nebraska to build a canal and stake a legal claim to some of the water. Nebraska Department of Natural Resources Director Tom Riley said failing to preserve the state’s water supply would have huge economic and environmental consequences. Nebraska’s revenue surge was largely driven by federal COVID-19 aid, as demonstrated by many other states that went from doom-and-gloom budgets early in the pandemic to large surpluses. Ricketts argued that the state’s light-touch approach to the pandemic played a role as well. Nebraska was one of seven Republican-led states that never issued a formal stay-at-home order. Nebraska also has the lowest unemployment rate ever reported by a state and its agriculture and manufacturing industries are faring better than they were before the pandemic.

Flood disaster in Queensland and New South Wales after a year's worth of rain, Australia –(videos) The Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) has issued numerous major flood warnings across southeast Queensland and northern New South Wales (NSW) with a severe weather warning remaining current for several parts of the region. Multiple major flood warnings remain current for north-eastern NSW including the Tweed, Richmond, Wilsons, Clarence, Brunswick rivers and Marshall Creek. Authorities are describing the situation as unprecedented and warning the worst is yet to come!

• At least 8 people have been killed and three remain missing in Queensland after a year's worth of rain fell on parts of the southeast.
• Record river flooding has been reported, in parts of the region 2 m (6.5 feet) above record.
• 58 000 homes have been flooded in Brisbane alone
• Tens of thousands of customers are without power
• Public transport is disrupted and many schools closed
• Residents are asked to conserve water

While the intense rainfall experienced across south-east Queensland, particularly around Brisbane, was not related to a tropical cyclone, it was of similar intensity in some areas, BOM meteorologists said.1 Locally intense rainfall remains likely around the Gold Coast and northern New South Wales today. The intense rainfall is expected to move south of the Queensland-New South Wales border during Monday afternoon. With many catchments saturated, dangerous and life-threatening flash flooding and landslides continue to occur, and emergency services are advising the community to monitor the situation closely. Flooding impacts are being seen across southeast Queensland and into northern New South Wales. Major flood warnings are current for several rivers across the region including the Upper and Lower Brisbane rivers, Logan and Albert rivers, Bremer River and Warrill Creek, the Mary River, the Noosa River, and Condamine and Balonne rivers. Flooding of the Brisbane River is impacting inner-city areas. Peak water levels are expected to exceed moderate to major flood levels at high tide on Monday and Tuesday and will not fall below minor until later this week. The flood warning for the Brisbane River continues to consider the releases from Wivenhoe Dam, being managed by SEQ Water. Damaging to locally destructive wind gusts are possible at the Gold Coast and nearby hinterland areas this morning. Flooding is impacting populated communities including Gympie, Maryborough, Sunshine Coast, Ipswich and Brisbane, and Lismore and Grafton. Parts of southeast Queensland may see additional localized flash flooding in the coming week with indications that severe thunderstorms with large hail, damaging winds and heavy rainfall are possible around southeast Queensland from Wednesday and into the weekend. Communities should be prepared for flood impacts and are encouraged to keep up to date with the latest forecasts and warnings on the Bureau's website and BOM Weather app, and to follow the advice of emergency services. Multiple major flood warnings remain current for north-eastern New South Wales including the Tweed, Richmond, Wilsons, Clarence, Brunswick rivers and Marshall Creek.2 Wilsons River at Lismore is currently higher than the February 1954 and 1974 levels and is continuing to increase. Dangerous and life-threatening flash flooding will continue for parts of the Northern Rivers and Mid North Coast throughout Monday.

Floods cause deaths and widespread destruction in Australia - In Australia, calamities have unfolded across the states of Queensland and New South Wales (NSW) over the past few days as dozens of cities, towns and villages have been impacted by widespread rain and flooding, which has reached historic levels in some cases. So far, at least eight people have lost their lives, including a Queensland State Emergency Services (SES) volunteer who attempted to rescue a family in distress. Three more people are still reported to be missing in the Queensland capital of Brisbane, and at least 1,000 remain unaccounted for in the northern NSW city of Lismore. Huge volumes of rain fell across the region. In Brisbane, the country’s third largest city, total rainfall over three days was 611 millimetres (24 inches), surpassing all records since monitoring of the area began in 1840. Residents of over 140 Brisbane suburbs have been threatened by rising water levels in creeks and the Brisbane River—which was at 3.5 metres last night. The levels in the river have not passed the 4.4-metre record set during the last devastating floods in 2011, but the flooding is more widespread. Some areas that were not affected by the 2011 floods, including the Brisbane suburbs of Wilston and Windsor, were inundated. An estimated 20,000 homes across the state have been damaged, including 15,000 in the Brisbane area, mainly in low-lying working-class suburbs, including Goodna and Beenleigh. The extreme weather system that dumped the rain moved slowly south over several days, from north of Brisbane to the neighbouring state of NSW, where it flooded the regional city of Lismore and then headed down the NSW coast toward Sydney. Hundreds of people have been displaced. In Queensland, over 1,000 people have been evacuated, while more than 1,500 people are in evacuation shelters across the state, and at least 53,000 homes were without power as of last night. In NSW, approximately 60,000 people in the state’s north have been affected by evacuation orders. More than 300,000 have been warned they may need to flee their homes. First to be inundated was Gympie, 170 kilometres north of Brisbane. The highest flood levels in 100 years stranded hundreds of people, with more than 3,600 properties affected and a thousand submerged. On Sunday morning, the water level of the Mary River peaked at 22.8 metres, the highest ever recorded since 1893. Hundreds of residents remain in evacuation centres, waiting for the water to recede.

Tropical Cyclone "Anika" forecast to re-intensify, make another landfall in Western Australia -Tropical Cyclone "Anika" made landfall on the north Kimberley coast near Faraway Bay, Western Australia as a category 2 system on the Australian cyclone scale at 12:00 UTC (20:00 WST) on Saturday, February 26, 2022. Anika has been downgraded below tropical cyclone strength but is expected to strengthen again once it moves over waters off the west Kimberley early in the new week. A severe tropical cyclone impact to the east Pilbara or west Kimberley coast is forecast for late Wednesday or Thursday, March 2 or 3. Heavy rainfall and flooding are forecast to continue in the northwestern Kimberley, including Broome, Derby, and Bidyadanga, with rainfall totals of 100 - 200 mm (4 - 8 inches) and isolated falls of 200 - 350 mm (8 - 14 inches) today and similar falls into early parts of this week, the Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) said. These falls are likely to cause some roads to become impassable and some communities may become isolated. At 12:00 UTC on February 28, Anika was a tropical low with sustained winds near the center of 65 km/h (40 mph) and gusts to 95 km/h (60 mph), moving SW at 10 km/h (6 mph). Its center was located about 105 km (65 mph) SSW of Kuri Bay and 280 km (175 miles) NE of Broome.1 The system is expected to intensify further as it turns south over the open ocean on Wednesday. A severe tropical cyclone impact to the east Pilbara or west Kimberley coast is forecast for late Wednesday or Thursday, March 2 or 3.

Unprecedented flooding continues, very dangerous thunderstorms with giant hail, destructive winds and heavy rain forecast for SE Queensland, Australia -- Widespread flooding, described by authorities as unprecedented, continues affecting parts of eastern Australia. After more than a year's worth of rain fell in just a couple of days, more heavy rain is in the forecast, as well as giant hail and destructive winds. At least 9 people have died in Queensland and another 3 in New South Wales, as of early March 3, 2022. Very dangerous thunderstorms with giant hail, destructive winds, and locally intense and heavy rainfall have been forecast for southeast Queensland today and may persist into the weekend. It could lead to flash flooding in creeks, streams and catchments that respond quickly to heavy, short-duration rainfall. Multiple moderate to major flood warnings are in place for the lower Logan River, Weir, Moonie, Condamine and Balonne rivers, and a Flood Watch has been issued for southeast Queensland for renewed river rises. Communities should be prepared for flood impacts and are encouraged to keep up to date with the latest forecasts and warnings on the Bureau's website and BOM Weather app, and to follow the advice of emergency services. Observations:

• Giant hail around 5 to 6 cm (2 - 2.3 inches) in size was recorded west of Inglewood at midnight.
• 81 mm (3.2 inches) of rainfall was recorded at Woodford, with 66 mm (2.6 inches) in 30 minutes.
• A wind gust of 93 km/h (58 mph) was observed at Dalby at 19:15 AEST Wednesday night.

BOM issued a Severe Weather Warning was on Thursday morning for an east coast low to impact the New South Wales Central and South coasts and eastern ranges.²The storm will bring increasingly widespread rain, with the risk of intense rainfall leading to flash flooding. Six hourly rainfall totals of 80 to 120 mm (3.1 - 4.7 inches) are likely over broad areas, and some may see six hourly rainfall rates exceed 200 mm (7.9 inches).Multiple major flood warnings are in place for New South Wales including the Hawkesbury, Nepean, Georges, Richmond, Clarence and Weir rivers and Tuggerah Lake. A Flood Watch is in place for other parts of New South Wales. Communities in the Hunter Valley through to the New South Wales South Coast, including the densely populated areas of Sydney, Blue Mountains, Central Coast and Wollongong, are likely to experience heavy rain and flash or riverine flooding.

Australia flooding: Half a million told to evacuate or be ready to as torrential rain lashes Sydney --Half a million people in and around Sydney have now been told to evacuate or prepare to flee flooding as record breaking rain lashed an unusually long stretch of Australia's east coast. The brutal rain has already claimed several lives and damaged thousands of properties. "Treacherous weather conditions" now threaten the five million residents of Sydney, New South Wales' state emergency services minister Steph Cooke said, as river levels surged. The country's most populated city is experiencing the worst flooding seen in the region, along with high winds. Dozens of areas are on high alert for major flooding expected along several waterways in and in the vicinity of the country's most populous city. Australia's Bureau of Meteorology has warned of life-threatening flash flooding and dangerous winds of potentially more than 56mph (90kph). "We do believe that things will get worse before they get better," New South Wales Premier Dominic Perrottet warned. The State Emergency Service has issued evacuation orders to 200,000 residents and sent evacuation warnings to another 300,000. M Coastal communities as far as 120 miles (200km) south of Sydney are also preparing for minor flooding, and waters were also rising in Brisbane, 450 miles north of Sydney, as severe thunderstorms struck. Two inch (5cm) hail stones pounded the town of Inglewood early on Thursday. More than 1,400 homes in the capital of Queensland state were at risk of flooding while more than 28,000 homes were without power statewide. 'Very dangerous situation' Bureau of Meteorology forecaster Laura Boekel said thunderstorms brought the chance of more flooding, extending 280 miles (450km) north from Brisbane to Bundaberg during the next day or two. "This is a very dangerous and potentially life-threatening situation for southeast Queensland," she said. Earlier this week Brisbane was pummelled by a "rain bomb" that caused evacuations, power outages and school closures. Since 22 February, 14 people have died in the flooding in Queensland and neighbouring New South Wales. The climate crisis is driving temperature changes in Australia, where heat is rising faster than the global average, allowing the atmosphere to hold more moisture, making rain more extreme. But despite warnings about climate change, "Australia is unprepared for the supercharged weather that it is now driving, such as the current floods in Queensland and NSW," according to professor Hilary Bambrick from Queensland University of Technology, who co-authored Australia's annual assessment of progress on climate adaptation.

Flooding across Western Sydney as the Nepean-Hawkesbury rivers burst, Australia (video) "The rain bomb that threatened to smash Sydney has missed its target, coming ashore to our north. But the downpour has been heavy enough to leave a major flood emergency in Western Sydney," 7News reports. The outflow from Warragamba Dam, which fortunately is spilling at half the rate authorities predicted when they feared a massive downpour would hit the catchment. One of the first suburbs evacuated was North Richmond with access cut over the swollen Hawkesbury River.

 ‘You feel powerless’: Families devastated following Brazil’s deadly mudslides — With a gardening tool in hand, Gisela Arcaminate searched through the mud and rubble Wednesday hoping to find her daughter. Arcaminate along with other volunteers are still searching for people missing after torrential rain caused flooding and mudslides, destroying houses, streets and much of the infrastructure of the city of Petrópolis, just north of Rio de Janeiro. In Morro da Oficina, where Arcaminate has looked for her relatives, 80 houses disappeared in a matter of minutes. As of Friday, 117 bodies had been found,, and more than 100 people were still missing. Maicon Pinto, 39, a businessman, said he lost an aunt in the avalanche of mud that tore through the hill at a height of almost 26 feet. “The sheer size of the wave made it impossible even to dig the debris by hand,” he said. “You feel powerless.” Located almost 3,000 feet above sea level, Petrópolis has a population of around 300,000 and is an important tourist destination in the region. Less than an hour from the famous capital, the town attracts thousands of tourists every year. It is also known for its summer rains. According to meteorologists, the recent storm that hit the area delivered an entire month of expected rain in just three hours. The deluge also hit a very specific part of town, soaking the already thick soil that sits above a layer of rock. The massive weight triggered mudslides that cascaded down the steep slopes, destroying dozens of homes and quickly overflowing the city’s historical center. Many in its path were trapped and could not escape. Such rainstorms, once rare, are becoming more common — as are their devastating effects. Similar storms and floods hit Europe in July, with climate experts warning that such storms are going to become more frequent as the Earth’s atmosphere warms. 

 Indian Ocean warming could weaken summer monsoon rainfall in South Asia - The South Asian monsoon, also known as Indian summer monsoon (ISM), is crucial for the food security and socioeconomic well-being of 40% of the world's population. From a historical perspective, fluctuations in monsoon rainfall have been linked to the rise and fall of civilizations in the Indian subcontinent. Now researchers are increasingly concerned that global warming may threaten the stability of the monsoon system, but accurate predictions have been hampered by the lack of long-term climate data in the Indian subcontinent. A new study in the journal PNAS by a team of researchers from the Max Planck Institute, et al, seeks to strengthen climate predictions by reconstructing Indian summer monsoon rainfall changes during the past 130,000 years. The study reports for the first time that the Indian summer monsoon during the Last Interglacial was weakened by sustained high sea surface temperatures in the equatorial and tropical Indian Ocean, indicating that modern rises in sea temperature could increase droughts in South Asia. To reconstruct past Indian summer monsoon rainfall, the researchers analyzed a 10-meter-long marine sediment core retrieved from the northern Bay of Bengal, roughly 200 km south of the mouth of the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna rivers. By analyzing the stable hydrogen and carbon isotopes in leaf wax biomarkers preserved in the sediment, researchers were able to track changes in rainfall during the planet's last two warmer climate states: The Last Interglacial, which occurred 130,000–115,000 years ago, and the current warm period, the Holocene, which began 11,600 years ago. Although solar insolation was higher during the Last Interglacial, isotopic analysis on leaf wax biomarker revealed that the Indian summer monsoon was actually less intense than in the Holocene. "This unexpected finding not only contrasts with paleoclimate model simulations," "but also challenges common assumptions that incoming solar insolation is the biggest factor in monsoon variability in a warm climate state.""Our work strongly suggests that sea surface temperature plays a dominant role in shaping the Indian summer monsoon's variability in South Asia," says Dr. Wang, "and that higher surface temperatures in the Indian Ocean during the Last Interglacial period could have dampened the ISM intensity." The team's results indicate that, due to increasing sea surface temperatures in the Indian Ocean, Indian summer monsoon failures are likely to increase as well. To what extent sea surface temperature affects monsoon intensity in other tropical regions remains an open question.

 Study reveals chemical link between wildfire smoke and ozone depletion --The Australian wildfires in 2019 and 2020 were historic for how far and fast they spread, and for how long and powerfully they burned. All told, the devastating "Black Summer" fires blazed across more than 43 million acres of land, and extinguished or displaced nearly 3 billion animals. The fires also injected over 1 million tons of smoke particles into the atmosphere, reaching up to 35 kilometers above Earth's surface—a mass and reach comparable to that of an erupting volcano. Now, atmospheric chemists at MIT have found that the smoke from those fires set off chemical reactions in the stratosphere that contributed to the destruction of ozone, which shields the Earth from incoming ultraviolet radiation. The team's study, appearing in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, is the first to establish a chemical link between wildfire smoke and ozone depletion. In March 2020, shortly after the fires subsided, the team observed a sharp drop in nitrogen dioxide in the stratosphere, which is the first step in a chemical cascade that is known to end in ozone depletion. The researchers found that this drop in nitrogen dioxide directly correlates with the amount of smoke that the fires released into the stratosphere. They estimate that this smoke-induced chemistry depleted the column of ozone by 1 percent. To put this in context, they note that the phaseout of ozone-depleting gases under a worldwide agreement to stop their production has led to about a 1 percent ozone recovery from earlier ozone decreases over the past 10 years—meaning that the wildfires canceled those hard-won diplomatic gains for a short period. If future wildfires grow stronger and more frequent, as they are predicted to do with climate change, ozone's projected recovery could be delayed by years. "The Australian fires look like the biggest event so far, but as the world continues to warm, there is every reason to think these fires will become more frequent and more intense," says lead author Susan Solomon, the Lee and Geraldine Martin Professor of Environmental Studies at MIT. "It's another wakeup call, just as the Antarctic ozone hole was, in the sense of showing how bad things could actually be."

Scientists link wildfire smoke to ozone depletion -- Smoke generated by Australia’s 2019-2020 wildfires — which emitted a mass of particles comparable to that of an erupting volcano — contributed to the breakdown of the Earth’s ozone layer, a new study has found. These devastating “Black Summer” fires scorched more than 43 acres of land while displacing nearly 3 billion animals and injecting more than 1 million tons of smoke particles into the atmosphere, according to the scientists, who published their findings in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences on Monday. That smoke, they explained, reached up to 35 kilometers above the Earth’s surface and set off chemical reactions in the stratosphere that were destructive to ozone. “The Australian fires look like the biggest event so far, but as the world continues to warm, there is every reason to think these fires will become more frequent and more intense,” lead author Susan Solomon, a professor of environmental studies at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, said in a statement. “It’s another wakeup call, just as the Antarctic ozone hole was, in the sense of showing how bad things could actually be,” she added. Shortly after the fires subsided in March 2020, the authors said they observed a plunge in nitrogen dioxide levels in the atmosphere, which is the first step in what they described as “a chemical cascade” resulting in ozone depletion. That drop, the researchers found, directly correlated to the amount of smoke the fires bellowed into the atmosphere. In total, the scientists estimated that this smoke-induced reaction depleted the column of ozone by 1 percent. As a basis of comparison, they explained, the global phaseout of ozone-depleting gases has led to about a 1 percent ozone recovery for decreases over the past decade. The new study establishes the first direct link between wildfire smoke and ozone depletion, which stemmed from an initial inkling Solomon had that smoke from fires might deplete ozone through a chemical reaction similar to that of volcanic aerosols, a news release accompanying the study said. Solomon had previously discovered that particles from these eruptions — which can reach the stratosphere — can destroy ozone in this manner. “This chemistry, once you get past that point, is well-established,” Solomon said. “Once you have less nitrogen dioxide, you have to have more chlorine monoxide, and that will deplete ozone.” The scientists used nitrogen dioxide data from three independent satellites that have been surveying the Southern Hemisphere. They then compared each satellite’s record of the months and years that preceded the fires to the data from March 2020.

Patagonia Is Rapidly Rising Up in The Largest Glacial Adjustment Ever Recorded - Patagonian ice fields are among some of the fastest-melting glaciers on the planet. As these glaciers disappear, the earth that once lay beneath them is rebounding upwards at rates much faster than expected.Now, scientists have worked out a gap in tectonic plates that began forming some 18 million years ago underneath now-shrinking ice fields is likely driving the recent rapid rock uplift seen in Patagonia, encompassing remote and sparsely populated areas where few seismic studies have been conducted before."Variations in the size of glaciers, as they grow and shrink, combined with the mantle structure that we've imaged in this study, are driving rapid and spatially variable uplift in this region," says geophysicist Hannah Mark of the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, who led the study.When glaciers melt, the earth that once lay beneath them rebounds and rises, no longer burdened by the colossal weight of miles-thick ice sheets.This uplift, called glacial isostatic adjustment, usually occurs over thousands of years, not in decades, which appears to be happening in Patagonia. Along with the meltwater that gushes from glaciers, it affects how much global sea levels will rise under future climate warming scenarios that scientists are busy modeling.Rapid uplift of more than 4 centimeters (1.6 inches) per year has been measured in the thinning northern and southern Patagonian ice fields that are just a fraction of their previous size. A toe-length rise might not sound like much, but it's an extreme, unusual, and sudden change on a continental scale – and the largest present-day glacial adjustment ever recorded.

What caused an unusual series of earthquakes in Lake Erie this year? - cleveland.com – Ten minor earthquakes have been recorded in Lake Erie just north of Lake County in 2022 and experts have a few theories for what caused the unusual seismic activity, but nothing definitive.The largest of the tremors was a 3.0 magnitude on Jan. 4 and the smallest and most recent was 1.2 magnitude on Feb. 9, according to the Ohio Earthquake Database from the Ohio Department of Natural Resources.

Intense explosions from four vents at Stromboli volcano, Italy - Almost simultaneous explosions were recorded from four vents at Stromboli volcano, Italy late Friday, March 4, 2022.Thanks to Boris Behncke of INGV we have this amazing video of the eruption:From February 21 to 27, activity at Stromboli was characterized by ongoing explosions from three vents in Area N (North Crater area) and three vents in Area C-S (South-Central Crater area).¹Explosions from Area N vents (N1 and N2) averaged 2 - 5 events per hour; explosions from the N1 vent ejected lapilli and bombs 80 - 150 m (262 - 492 feet) high and those at two N2 vents ejected material less than 80 m high.Low-intensity explosions at the two S2 vents occurred at a rate of 4 - 9 per hour and ejected coarse material no higher than 80 m.While N2 produced weak and occasional spattering, no explosions occurred at the S1 and C vents in Area C-S.A major explosion took place at the volcano at 14:17 UTC on October 6, 2021.² ​The explosion ejected a significant amount of coarse pyroclastic material that surpassed the crater terrace, affecting the area of Pizzo Sopra la Fossa and Sciara del Fuoco, and rolling all the way to the coastline.

Asteroid 2022 DM4 to fly past Earth at 0.6 LD - A newly-discovered asteroid designated 2022 DM4 will fly past Earth at a distance of 0.68 LD / 0.00173 AU (258 800 km / 160 800 miles) at 03:10 UTC on March 2, 2022. This is the 28^th known asteroid to fly past Earth within 1 lunar distance since the start of the year.2022 DM4 was first observed at Pan-STARRS 2, Haleakala, Hawaii on February 28, two days before its close approach. It belongs to the Apollo group of asteroids and has an estimated diameter between 3.8 and 8.4 m (12.4 - 27.5 feet).

Russia's space chief responds to new sanctions by suggesting that the ISS would no longer be prevented from crashing into the US or Europe -Russia's space chief responds to new sanctions by suggesting that the ISS would no longer be prevented from crashing into the US or EuropeThe chief of Russia's space agency, Roscosmos, has claimed that new US sanctions could have dire consequences for the future of the International Space Station (ISS). In a tweet Thursday, director-general Dmitry Rogozin warned that the sanctions could "destroy our cooperation on the ISS." President Joe Biden recently announced a set of US-imposed penalties on Russia after its unprovoked invasion of Ukraine. The sanctions target Russia's economy, military, financial system, and technological imports. On Thursday, Biden said he was authorizing "additional strong sanctions" against Russia and "new limitations" on what could be exported to the country. "We have purposely designed these sanctions to maximize the long-term impact on Russia and minimize the impact on the United States and our allies," Biden said.According to CNN, Biden further stated that the sanctions "will degrade (Russia's) aerospace industry, including their space program." In response, Rogozin said on Twitter: "If you block cooperation with us, who will save the ISS from an uncontrolled deorbit and fall into the United States or Europe?" He added: "There is also the option of dropping a 500-ton structure to India and China. Do you want to threaten them with such a prospect? The ISS does not fly over Russia, so all the risks are yours. Are you ready for them?"

New IPCC Report Highlights Urgency of Climate Change Impacts - The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) second part of its Sixth Assessment Report summarizes the latest scientific research on climate change impacts, adaptation, and vulnerabilities.The new IPCC Working Group II report paints an alarming picture of rapidly growing risks currently being felt around the world, including widespread damages to human and ecological health. It finds nearly half the world population living “in contexts that are highly vulnerable to climate change.”For example, the IPCC says in its report that climate change has exacerbated food and water insecurity, extreme weather disasters, declines in people’s physical and mental health, premature deaths, species loss and extinctions, and vector-borne diseases in regions around the world. Citing the Paris Climate Agreement ambitious target of limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit) above pre-industrial temperatures, the authors warn that each additional increment of global warming above that threshold will bring increased risks of new and worsened climate damages.Adaptation measures – which the report finds woefully underfunded – can reduce risks from climate impacts, but those efforts will be overwhelmed by increasingly extreme weather events unless combined with aggressive efforts to curb global warming. The IPCC report cautions that: The cumulative scientific evidence is unequivocal: Climate change is a threat to human well-being and planetary health. Any further delay in concerted anticipatory global action on adaptation and mitigation will miss a brief and rapidly closing window of opportunity to secure a liveable and sustainable future for all. The new report echoes the IPCC Working Group I report from August 2021 in finding that climate change is worsening extreme weather events like heat waves, droughts, wildfires, floods, and hurricanes. “Increasing weather and climate extreme events have exposed millions of people to acute food insecurity and reduced water security,” the report finds.Those concerns are reported as especially problematic in sub-Saharan Africa and Central and South America, which along with portions of Asia are the most vulnerable regions to climate change impacts. These equatorial countries also lack the resources to deploy climate adaptation measures. Climate-worsened droughts and floods in recent years have increased acute food insecurity and malnutrition in these regions. Worsening droughts and shrinking glaciers and snowpacks have also contributed to water insecurity in many regions. The IPCC concludes that roughly half of the world’s population currently experiences severe water scarcity for at least some part of the year. The IPCC also reports that climate change has adversely affected both the physical and the mental health of people around the world. Mental health is stressed by the trauma caused by extreme weather events and the associated loss of livelihoods and culture, and by concerns about the future stability of human society in a hotter world.People’s physical health is particularly threatened by worsening extreme heat waves and resulting heat stress, which have increased the number of premature deaths in all regions of the world. Vector-borne diseases like West Nile virus, Lyme disease, malaria, and dengue fever are also on the rise in many countries. Warmer temperatures allow disease-bearing insects like mosquitoes and ticks to thrive and expand into regions previously too cool to provide suitable habitat. A number of climate researchers have cautioned that effectively addressing climate change risks comes down to a combination of three choices: “mitigation, adaptation, and suffering.”

U.N. climate change report warns of ‘dangerous and widespread disruption’ - In the hotter and more hellish world humans are creating, parts of the planet could become unbearable in the not-so-distant future, a panel of the world’s foremost scientists warned Monday in an exhaustive report on the escalating toll of climate change. Unchecked greenhouse gas emissions will raise sea levels several feet, swallowing small island nations and overwhelming even the world’s wealthiest coastal regions. Drought, heat, hunger and disaster may force millions of people from their homes. Coral reefs could vanish, along with a growing number of animal species. Disease-carrying insects would proliferate. Deaths — from malnutrition, extreme heat, pollution — will surge. These are some of the grim projections detailed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, a United Nations body dedicated to providing policymakers with regular assessments of the warming world. Drawing on thousands of academic studies from around the globe, the sweeping analysis finds that climate change is already causing “dangerous and widespread disruption” to the natural world, as well as billions of people around the planet. Failure to curb pollution from fossil fuels and other human activities, it says, will condemn the world to a future that is both universally dangerous and deeply unequal. Low-income countries, which generate only a tiny fraction of global emissions, will experience the vast majority of deaths and displacement from the worst-case warming scenarios, the IPCC warns. Yet these nations have the least capacity to adapt — a disparity that extends to even the basic research needed to understand looming risks. “I have seen many scientific reports in my time, but nothing like this,” U.N. Secretary General António Guterres said in a statement. “This abdication of leadership is criminal,” Guterres added. “The world’s biggest polluters are guilty of arson of our only home.” While some climate impacts are destined to worsen, the amount that Earth ultimately warms is not yet written in stone. The report makes clear, however, that averting the worst-case scenarios will require nothing less than transformational change on a global scale. The world will need to overhaul energy systems, redesign cities and revolutionize how humans grow food. Rather than reacting to climate disturbances after they happen, the IPCC says, communities must more aggressively adapt for the changes they know are coming. These investments could save trillions of dollars and millions of lives, but they have so far been in short supply. The IPCC report is a warning letter to a world on the brink. The urgency and escalating toll of climate change has never been clearer, it says. Any further delay will force humanity to miss the “brief and rapidly closing window of opportunity to secure a livable and sustainable future for all.”

IPCC: Climate change has irreversibly changed places like Florida | Miami Herald --Climate change has already changed places like Florida permanently and irreversibly — affecting coral reefs, leading to higher property values and increasing inequality for vulnerable populations in the state, according to a new global report from the world’s top scientists.“The scientific evidence is unequivocal: climate change is a threat to human well-being and the health of the planet. Any further delay in concerted global action will miss a brief and rapidly closing window to secure a livable future,” says the United Nations’ Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report, released on Monday. The nearly 2,000-page report had a global focus, but Florida was repeatedly used as an example of a place where the impacts of climate change were already being felt, both economically and environmentally. The report specifically mentions Florida multiple times, including:

• Tidal flooding worsened by sea rise has led to almost $500 million in lost real estate valuefrom 2005 to 2016 in Miami-Dade alone, “and it is likely that coastal flood risks in the region beyond 2050 will increase without adaptation to climate change.”
• Miami-Dade’s efforts to raise roads and build stormwater pumps have raised property values, leading to inequality for vulnerable populations
• Floridians could be forced to retreat from the coast as sea levels rise
• Florida’s coral reefs are bleaching and dying as temperatures rise
• As coral reefs die, Florida could lose up to $55 billion in reef-related tourism money by 2100
• Harmful algal blooms along Florida’s west coast spurred by climate change led to massive economic losses

Climate Crisis Mentioned Just Once During Biden's State of the Union -- The climate crisis is worsening every day, but it barely got a mention in President Joe Biden's State of the Union address. During his major speech Tuesday night, Biden touched on a range of issues impacting America and the world, including inflation, rising costs, and the Russian invasion of Ukraine. But what some would argue is the most pressing issue of them all — the climate crisis — only got one direct mention from the president. It was related to his economic plan to create more clean-energy jobs. "We'll create good jobs for millions of Americans, modernizing roads, airports, ports, and waterways all across America," Biden said in his prepared remarks. "And we'll do it all to withstand the devastating effects of the climate crisis and promote environmental justice." He later touted the benefits of his American Rescue Plan — specifically how it "cut energy costs for families an average of $500 a year by combatting climate change," which his Deputy National Climate Advisor Ali Zaidi noted on Twitter, as well.

Supreme Court to hear case challenging the scope of EPA's climate powers -The Supreme Court is set to hear oral arguments Monday in a case that could limit the Environmental Protection Agency’s (EPA) ability to regulate climate change. At issue in the case is the extent to which the agency can pursue climate regulations that have broad impacts on areas such as the power sector. Two coal companies, as well as a group of states led by West Virginia and North Dakota, are challenging a lower court ruling that tossed a Trump-era rule governing power plants. That Trump rule loosened regulations surrounding climate change when compared to the Obama-era Clean Power Plan (CPP), which sought to reduce releases of greenhouse gases through improved efficiency measures, as well as the adoption of more natural gas and renewable energy, as opposed to coal. The Supreme Court stayed that plan, preventing it from taking effect, in 2016. And the Trump administration replaced it with the Affordable Clean Energy (ACE) rule, which still sought efficiency improvements, but excluded the switch to cleaner fuels. CPP was expected to be significantly more impactful than ACE, reducing carbon dioxide emissions by 415 million short tons by 2030 compared to its successor’s ​​11 million short tons. Neither rule is currently in place, as a court also struck down the Trump rule last year. But as the Biden administration is working on its own regulations for power plants, the states and coal companies are seeking to limit its authority to do so. They have argued that a key provision in the Clean Air Act only allows the EPA to regulate the pollution sources themselves, rather than setting broader standards that could change the makeup of the country’s power supply. “They have the ability to regulate a source, and so for instance that could be the coal-fired power plant, and that could be for heat efficiencies or items within the power plant,” West Virginia Attorney General Patrick Morrisey told The Hill in an interview. But, he added, they can’t “go so far afield” and create a system that could “impact consumer demand or force rewrites of the power grid.” The government disagrees, arguing that the law’s call for a “best system of emissions reduction” enables it to regulate both within the power plant and outside its boundaries. It said in a court briefing that the definition of the word system “encompasses inside- and outside-the-fenceline measures alike.” And the government and its environmentalist allies argue that since neither the Obama rule nor the Trump rule is in place, there’s nothing to sue over.

U.S. Supreme Court hears clean power plan arguments led by West Virginia AG — West Virginia got its day before the U.S. Supreme Court on Monday, where the state Attorney General’s Office presented its case against the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency over its alleged authority over carbon dioxide emissions.Attorney General Patrick Morrisey virtually briefed the press on the case Monday from the steps of the Cass Gilbert-designed U.S. Supreme Court Building in Washington, D.C., shortly after arguments ended in West Virginia v. EPA.“I think we made some very strong arguments to push back against the opposition’s arguments on standing and mootness,” Morrisey said. “We were able to articulate a lot of strength as far as why this represents a major question of the day and also to make the argument that we have very compelling textual arguments as well. We’re cautiously optimistic about this.”West Virginia and 18 other states are challenging a ruling by the U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit that blocked the Affordable Clean Energy rule, a Trump-era rule that replaced the Clean Power Plan with less stringent regulations on coal-fired power plant emissions. Morrisey appealed the case to the Supreme Court in April 2021.Morrisey and supporters of his legal case believe that the Clean Air Act, passed in 1970 and signed by former president Richard Nixon, only gives the EPA authority over individual coal-fired power plants and the authority to make wholesale, broad rules for the entire energy-producing sector. Morrisey believes that it is up to Congress to pass specific regulations for the EPA to enforce and not through the agency’s executive authority.“This is a critical case for this Supreme Court term,” Morrisey said. “I’ve always said very clearly that major questions of the day need to be resolved by Congress as opposed to unaccountable bureaucracy. Those arguments were made very plain and clear today, and we’re hopeful the court heard them and agrees to that perspective.” Opponents of West Virginia’s legal case, such as environmental law firm Earthjustice, believe it is clear that the EPA does have the authority to regulate greenhouse emissions broadly. They see any ruling against the EPA’s authority as a sign that other environmental regulations could be at risk.

Supreme Court takes up EPA’s power to limit greenhouse gas emissions -- The Supreme Court on Monday will consider how much power the Environmental Protection Agency has to limit greenhouse gas emissions from existing power plants, one of the most important cases of a term already loaded with blockbuster issues.At stake is the extent of the government's authority over "the single largest industrial source of climate pollution in our country and one of the largest sources of carbon dioxide pollution in the world," said Vickie Patton, general counsel of the Environmental Defense Fund. Energy-producing states led by West Virginia and coal companies are urging the court to rule that the EPA does not have broad authority to shift the nation's energy production away from coal-burning power plants toward cleaner sources, including solar and wind power. That kind of public policy can be set only by Congress, not by a federal agency, they argue. The case comes before the court in an unusual posture, because the states and coal companies are not challenging any specific rule now in effect. Instead, they are contesting a federal appeals court ruling that said the EPA could issue the kind of regulations the challengers oppose. If those rules come back, the challengers say, the EPA could "name itself the country's central energy planning authority by reshaping the power grids and seizing control over electricity production nationwide." The legal fight began seven years ago, when the EPA under the Obama administration issued a plan to reduce carbon dioxide pollution from power plants by allowing their operators to get credit for generating more power from lower-emitting sources, such as natural gas or solar energy or wind energy. The coalition of states and coal companies sued, saying the Clean Air Act gave the government authority only to restrict pollution from specific power plants, not to require power companies to shift to different methods of generation. After the Supreme Court blocked the enforcement of that rule, the EPA abandoned it and instead, under the Trump administration, proposed standards that would regulate only emissions from power plants. The relaxed restriction on greenhouse gases was then challenged by a different lineup of states and a coalition of environmental groups. The U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia, on President Donald Trump's final day in office, struck down his administration's revised rule. As a result, no EPA restriction currently applies to carbon pollution from existing power plants. But the appeals court ruling left the door open for the Biden administration to resurrect the EPA's earlier approach, involving a shift to cleaner sources. That possibility is what the coal companies and the red states are asking the Supreme Court to prevent. "Major policy choices affecting the national economy should not be made by unelected agency officials," a legal brief from the North American Coal Corp. said. The Supreme Court should ensure "that those momentous trade-offs are made by Congress," it said. The Biden Justice Department said the states and coal companies have no legal authority to maintain their lawsuit because no pollution rule is currently in effect. It said the EPA is in in the process of coming up with a new rule on carbon dioxide emissions.

Supreme Court Will Hear Biggest Climate Change Case in a Decade - — In the most important environmental case in more than a decade, the Supreme Court on Monday will hear arguments in a dispute that could restrict or even eliminate the Environmental Protection Agency’s authority to control the pollution that is heating the planet.A decision by the high court, with its conservative supermajority, could shred President Biden’s plans to halve the nation’s greenhouse emissions by the end of the decade, which scientists have said is necessary to avert the most catastrophic impacts of climate change.“They could handcuff the federal government’s ability to affordably reduce greenhouse gases from power plants,” said Michael Oppenheimer, a professor of geosciences and international affairs at Princeton University.But the outcome could also have repercussions that stretch well beyond air pollution, restricting the ability of federal agencies to regulate health care, workplace safety, telecommunications, the financial sector and more.“If the court were to require the E.P.A. to have very specific, narrow direction to address greenhouse gases, as a practical matter it could be devastating for other agencies’ abilities to enact rules that safeguard the public health and welfare of the nation,” said Richard Lazarus, a professor of environmental law at Harvard. “It would restrict the enactment of regulations under any host of federal statutes — OSHA, the Clean Water Act, hazardous waste regulation. In theory it even could limit the Fed’s authority to set interest rates.”At issue is a federal regulation that broadly governs emissions from power plants. But in a curious twist, the regulation actually never took effect and does not currently exist.The legal wrangling began in 2015 when President Barack Obama announced the Clean Power Plan, his chief strategy to fight climate change. Citing its authority under the Clean Air Act, the Obama administration planned to require each state to lower carbon dioxide emissions from the electricity sector — primarily by replacing coal-fired power plants with wind, solar and other clean sources. Electricity generation is the second largest source of greenhouse gas emissions in the United States, behind transportation.But the Clean Power Plan was never implemented. After a barrage of lawsuits from Republican states and the coal industry, the Supreme Court put the program on hold. Once President Donald J. Trump took office, he instituted a new plan that was effectively the same as no regulation. But on the last full day of Mr. Trump’s presidency, a federal appeals court found that the Trump administration had “misconceived the law” and vacated the Trump plan. That cleared the way for the Biden administration to issue its own regulation, which it has yet to do. It is highly unusual for the Supreme Court to take up a case that revolves around a hypothetical future regulation, legal experts said.“Trying to figure out the contours of E.P.A.’s authority to regulate greenhouse gases when there’s no regulation being defended is just kind of a weird thing for the court to consider,” said Jonathan Adler, a law professor at Case Western Reserve University. “I was surprised when they took the case.”

SCOTUS probes EPA power as climate scientists sound alarm - The Supreme Court yesterday signaled interest in curbing EPA’s role in tackling climate change — just hours after a major scientific report warned that the damaging effects of a warming planet will be worse than previously predicted and that governments aren’t doing enough.In what could be the most important environmental case in decades, the justices yesterday appeared sympathetic to claims from Republican-led states and coal industry interests that EPA has limited authority under the Clean Air Act to regulate carbon emissions from existing power plants (Greenwire, Feb. 28).Arguments in the case, West Virginia v. EPA, coincided with the release of a landmark U.N. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report, which U.N. Secretary-General António Guterres called an “atlas of human suffering and a damning indictment of failed climate leadership” (Climatewire, Feb. 28).“It was grotesque to hear Big Coal’s lawyers argue for tying EPA’s hands on cutting climate-heating pollution, even as the world’s scientists warn of a bigger, worsening swath of human suffering,” said Jason Rylander, an attorney at the Center for Biological Diversity’s Climate Law Institute, which had urged the Supreme Court to uphold EPA’s authority. The fight at the heart of the West Virginia dispute spans three presidencies: In 2015, President Obama imposed the Clean Power Plan that challengers argue would have unlawfully required companies to shift to renewables. That regulation, which never formally took effect, was gutted by the Trump-era Affordable Clean Energy rule in 2019. The U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit tossed the Trump rule last January, prompting the challenge that is now before the Supreme Court. Although the Biden administration’s EPA has said it plans to issue a new carbon rule, coal companies and red states called on the Supreme Court to take the unusual step of getting involved before the regulation is finalized — and the justices agreed.Justice Samuel Alito yesterday told Solicitor General Elizabeth Prelogar that it appeared EPA wants to use the carbon rule to set U.S. energy policy.“You are claiming that the interpretation gives you the authority to set industrial policy and energy policy and balance such things as jobs, economic impact, the potentially catastrophic effects of climate change as well as costs,” Alito said.Prelogar disputed his interpretation, saying there were limits to what EPA could accomplish, noting it could not impose “unreasonable costs on the industry,” nor threaten the reliability of the electricity grid.

Republicans Seize the ‘Major Questions Doctrine’ to Block Biden’s Climate Agenda - Red states are mounting a pre-emptive strike against President Joe Biden’s climate agenda, arguing that climate change is, in essence, too big an issue for any president to tackle without explicit direction from Congress. These Republican-led, mostly fossil fuel-producing states are invoking the “major questions doctrine,” a judicial principle that was seldom used until recently, but which has adherents among the Trump-appointed jurists who now are hearing the challenges to Biden’s authority. In oral arguments before the Supreme Court on Monday, West Virginia will argue on behalf of 20 states, with support from the coal industry, that the Environmental Protection Agency should be blocked from regulating greenhouse gas emissions from power plants under the major questions doctrine. The case is unusual because the Biden EPA hasn’t proposed any such regulations yet. Even companies that run power plants say that West Virginia and its co-litigants have gone too far, and they will argue in support of the Biden administration. But the case has been crafted to appeal especially to “major questions” proponents like Associate Justices Neil Gorsuch and Brett Kavanaugh. And the fact that the Supreme Court agreed to hear it at such an early stage signals some openness to the argument that EPA regulation of power plants under the Clean Air Act would constitute “an enormous and transformative expansion [of its] regulatory authority” without Congress’ say-so. Meanwhile, in a “major questions” case brought by Louisiana, a Trump-appointed federal judge has thrown a roadblock in the way of a vast array of Biden initiatives on climate, including EPA rules and other decisions, and even the State Department’s negotiations with Canada and other nations to harmonize international action on climate. In a court filing last week, the Justice Department indicated that a staggering amount of federal government activity is on hold in the wake of U.S. Judge James Cain’s Feb. 11 injunction against the use of the Biden administration’s “social cost of carbon” calculation, a method for accounting for the cost of greenhouse gas emissions. The Justice Department, seeking a stay of the order, wrote that it was “aware of no precedent for such judicial micromanagement of Executive Branch policymaking.” The red states’ legal strategy, if effective, will put Biden in a double bind, preventing him from acting on climate without explicit instructions from Congress—a Congress that happens to be in an intractable deadlock over climate. And the ramifications could reach far beyond climate, giving industry and state foes of regulation a new avenue to challenge virtually any major federal rule on the basis that it goes beyond what Congress envisioned. Already, a small business coalition succeeded in persuading the Supreme Court to block the Biden administration’s workplace Covid vaccine mandate using the same legal doctrine. “They’re not just trying to undermine EPA’s authority to address climate pollution from existing coal plants,” said Vickie Patton, general counsel of the Environmental Defense Fund. “They are trying to damage other important programs and agencies that are designed to protect Americans from all sorts of harm, including that we have food that is safe to eat, water that’s safe to drink, and air that is safe to breathe. “The safeguards that save lives are really under threat from the legal questions that the coal industry has put before the Supreme Court,” Patton said.

Republicans seize on Ukraine to attack Biden's climate policies. But the facts are against them. - Republicans are trying out a message that aims to link President Joe Biden’s climate policy and rising gasoline prices to the war in Ukraine.The problem? Their rhetoric largely defies reality.Republicans including Montana Sen. Steve Daines, Colorado Rep. Lauren Boebert and Ohio Senate candidate J.D. Vance are making the claim that Biden’s efforts to expand renewable energy and restrict fossil fuels have emboldened Putin to send troops, tanks and missiles into Ukraine.And at least one conservative on social media has called the hostilities “the first war of the ‘Green New Deal,’” a reference to a plan rolled out by progressives during the Trump administration calling for a speedy shift to carbon-free economy.Democrats are calling foul, however, saying the choice between shifting to renewables and fighting Putin is a false one.“This is the same tired argument they’ve been making the for the last several years where we live in this binary world where countries have to either buy our fossil fuels or Vladimir Putin’s,” Democrat Rep. Jared Huffman of California said in an interview. “In a decarbonized world he is powerless, his country is poor and they’ll be looking for a new leader.”The rhetorical pile-on comes as Republicans try to capitalize politically on an economic quandary that has bedeviled Biden for months: rising inflation, visible to Americans every time they fill up their cars, pick-ups and SUVs. The administration has insisted it is trying to limit how much economic damage the United States suffers from the West’s financial penalties on Russia, but oil prices jumped above $100 a barrel this week for the first time in nearly eight years. Even though U.S. oil and gas production has steadily increased since Biden took office — and is projected to rise this year — Republicans are blaming the rise in energy prices on the president’s efforts on climate change.

Rural county's chair urges state party to take a stand against carbon pipelines --- The chair of Calhoun County Democrats is urging the state party to take a stand against land seizures for the carbon pipelines being proposed in Iowa.Emma Schmit is a member of the Iowa Democratic Party’s State Central Committee. “Come out and support rural Iowa. We’ve seen Democrats continuously lose votes and this would be a huge opportunity to finally start moving that needle back,” Schmit said. “Instead, we’re choosing to just sleep on the issue and ignore it.”This weekend, Schmit proposed that the Iowa Democratic Party’s governing board pass a resolution opposing development and construction of carbon pipelines, but it was tabled.“The debate was cut off almost instantaneously before we could even explain why it’s so critical that the Democratic Party speak out in support of the impacted landowners and the communities that are going to be threatened by these pipelines,” Schmit said.The Iowa Democratic Party’s 2018 platform supports “carbon sequestration,” but opposes “eminent domain abuse.” Schmit said there will be efforts this weekend at county conventions to try to ensure the Iowa Democratic Party’s 2022 Platform includes a plank opposing carbon pipelines, but Scmit argues no one reads the platform and a statement now from the party’s governing board would be more effective.

Governors tout importance of carbon capture as Summit Carbon Solutions announces major investment by Continental Resources -- Continental Resources Inc. will commit $250 million over the next two years to help fund the development and construction of a $4.5 billion carbon capture and sequestration project which would be the largest project of its kind in the world. Summit Carbon Solutions is partnering with 31 ethanol plants in five states, including Tharaldson Ethanol plant in Casselton to build the project. Carbon dioxide from the ethanol plants will be transported through a 2,000-mile pipeline network to North Dakota, where it will be permanently stored underground. North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum and Nebraska Gov. Pete Ricketts were at Tharaldson Ethanol Plant in Casselton Weds. to highlight the importance of carbon capture and storage. “Combining the considerable resources and geologic expertise of one of North Dakota’s most productive and pioneering oil and gas operators with this visionary model of carbon capture and storage is a win-win-win for our farmers and ethanol plants, environmental stewardship and U.S. energy security,” Burgum said. “By capitalizing on our geologic jackpot of enormous underground storage capacity, we can safely store not only our own carbon dioxide but also our neighbors’ CO2 while creating jobs, generating income for North Dakota landowners and strengthening our economy.”“Continued investments in carbon capture and storage highlight the forward-thinking leadership throughout the bio-refining industry,” Ricketts said. “This innovative approach shows the world that energy producers can pursue a reduced carbon footprint without sacrificing production vital to a secure economy that fuels America and beyond.” Summit Agricultural Group CEO Bruce Rastetter, Continental Resources Chairman Harold Hamm and CEO Bill Berry were also at the press conference hosted by North Dakota entrepreneur Gary Tharaldson.

 Bitcoin carbon emissions rise as mining moves to US and other countries --A team of researchers from the Netherlands, Switzerland and Germany has found that as Bitcoin miners have moved from China to the U.S. and other countries, their carbon emissions have increased. In their paper published the journal Joule, the group reports that as Bitcoin miners have been forced out of China, they have moved to places with fossil-fuel-based electricity sources, thereby increasing their carbon emissions. In 2013, China began to grow uneasy with the speculative nature of Bitcoin and its operations. Over the next several years, officials in the country began restricting Chinese banks from using the cryptocurrency, and over time, shut down Bitcoin mining operations altogether. In response, the entities running the mining operations moved them to other locations, primarily the U.S., and to some extent, Kazakhstan and a few other countries. This, the researchers contend, has led to an increase in emissions due to Bitcoin mining. Bitcoin mining refers to the process involved in creating new bitcoins—it is done on large and powerful computers that require a lot of electricity. The entities running the Bitcoin mining operations initially found China to be a receptive country. They were able to take advantage of China's massive hydroelectric facilities during the warm months. That allowed the miners to claim that their operations were green. But as China prohibited Bitcoin, new locations had to be found, and that generally meant relocating to several regions in the U.S. In their work, the researchers accessed the global maps used by Bitcoin miners to find where their operations were moving. Using IP addresses from the Cambridge Centre for Alternative Finance, they were able to locate the new sites of the Bitcoin mining operations, most of which were in the U.S. They were even able to see which states were hosting the new mining operations sites—mostly Texas, Kentucky and Georgia, three states that had wooed the miners using tax breaks. Unfortunately, all three states rely almost exclusively on coal and natural gas to generate electricity. The end result is Bitcoin mining operations releasing more carbon into the atmosphere than ever before.

Oklahoma gives electric vehicle manufacturer $15 million from state’s ‘Quick Action Closing Fund’ -Oklahoma is giving electric vehicle manufacturer Canoo $15 million from the state’s “Quick Action Closing Fund” as part of an incentive package valued at $300 million intended to bring thousands of new tech and manufacturing jobs to the state. The $15-million Quick Action Closing Fund incentive is the largest the state has ever awarded since the program was created under Gov. Mary Fallin in 2011. The fund is intended to allow the governor to lure new employers to the state with cash payments. Gov. Kevin Stitt has ramped up his use of the Quick Action Closing Fund since taking office and the Oklahoma Legislature appropriated $20 million to the program last year at his request. Canoo CEO Tony Aquila said in an earnings call Monday that Oklahoma is providing the incentive money to create new jobs and build infrastructure for the company. Oklahoma has also agreed to purchase 1,000 of Canoo’s electric vehicles, Aquila said. Canoo is already hiring engineers and other positions for a Tulsa hub, but some of the jobs can be done remotely. The company has also begun clearing land for a factory at MidAmerica Industrial Park in Pryor that could eventually employ as many as 2,000 people. But Canoo is still a startup that has yet to generate a profit. It remains unclear how many jobs the company will ultimately create in Oklahoma. Canoo is also one of a handful of electric vehicle manufacturers under investigation by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission after going public through deals with blank-check investment vehicles known as special purpose acquisition companies. 

Why winter saps your electric car's driving range -- More Americans are opting to purchase an electric vehicle, but some EV owners are surprised to find out how much their car's driving range is compromised by winter weather.Getting over the hurdles of buying an EV — the higher sticker price, knowing where to charge it or the fear of getting stranded — is hard enough. If your car doesn't live up to the EPA-estimated range that was promised, it could undermine confidence in EVs and even deter potential buyers. In January, Margaret and her husband took their first road trip in their new Mustang Mach-E from Washington, D.C., to a cabin near Wardensville, West Virginia, roughly 110 miles away. Their car has an EPA range of 300 miles, but in the chilly weather the estimate before they left home was only about 200 miles, so they had to build in a stop for recharging. Most electric vehicles experience some loss of driving range in cold weather.In Norway — where half of all new cars are plug-ins — tests show that EVs lose about 20% of their driving range and take longer to charge in cold temperatures, according to the Norwegian Automobile Federation. AAA found the loss in driving range could be as high as 41% with the heater on full blast. Consumer Reports urges EV buyers to opt for a larger battery to account for unpredictable weather. “Batteries are like humans,” Anna Stefanopoulou, director of the University of Michigan’s Energy Institute, told Wired.“They prefer the same sort of temperature range that people do. Anything below 40 or above 115 degrees Fahrenheit and they’re not going to deliver their peak performance," according to Wired.Some EVs do better than others in the cold, however, according to battery analysis firm Recurrent, which uses data collected from EV owners to create "battery health reports" on pre-owned EVs.The company analyzed the real-world winter driving range of thousands of electric vehicles and found the Tesla Model Y retained most of its EPA-rated range in winter. Tesla has developed more advanced thermodynamic systems, including a heat pump to warm the interior, Recurrent CEO Scott Case tells Axios. Cold temperatures slow down the chemical reactions in battery cells, which saps range and increases charging times. Without heat-producing engines, EVs also have to siphon battery power to warm the cabin. Your driving also affects your EV's range. If you drive with a lead foot, or you like to crank the heat, your expected range will be less. Ironically, driving only a few miles a day will also shorten your range estimate.

State issues environmental permits for controversial Nevada lithium mine - The Nevada Division of Environmental Protection has issued final air quality, water pollution control and mining reclamation permits to Lithium Nevada Corp., the company proposing a controversial lithium mine at Northern Nevada's Thacker Pass. The proposed mine sits on 5,700 acres of public land north of Winnemucca near the Oregon border. “The mine is a go for them to be able to start construction” as far as NDEP is concerned, according to NDEP Administrator Greg Lovato. “This just allows them to start construction from NDEP’s perspective. It doesn’t account for the other approvals they need from other agencies.” NDEP's announcement puts Lithium Nevada one step closer to moving ahead with the mine, although some permitting is still pending and federal permits already issued for the mine are tied up in litigation. Lithium Nevada is still awaiting approval from the state’s Division of Water Resources to transfer water rights from agricultural to mining use. A hearing was held in December after Bartell Ranch LLC and King River Land and Cattle Co. LLC contested the transfer. Both sides have until March 8 to submit closing arguments to the state. DWR will review the arguments and issue a decision by Nov. 3. In addition, indigenous tribes and environmental groups have filed lawsuits against the Bureau of Land Management for permitting the mine, alleging the BLM violated acts including the National Environmental Policy Act and the National Historic Preservation Act. The BLM granted its permits in early 2021. Those groups argue the mine was fast-tracked through the review process and will destroy critical habitat and infringe on sacred Native American land. Lithium Nevada and other mine advocates counter that the region’s abundance of lithium, a naturally occurring metal critical to the production of everything from cell phones to electric vehicle batteries, is essential for reducing the nation’s reliance on fossil fuels and combating the global climate emergency.

'A clean energy economy' for everyone? Salton Sea residents are not convinced yet - Residents in Salton Sea communities are demanding answers on the potential impacts of lithium extraction projects in the region. They’re calling on local, state, and industry leaders to offer details about how their health and the environment may not benefit from a market which supporters tout as a sustainable energy solution. Patricia Leal Gutierrez, a resident of North Shore, said she has seen first hand how the Salton Sea has deteriorated. She explained as it "shrinks it exposes dust, and that dust is particulate matter so fine that it comes into the lungs.” Although Gutierrez lives on the north end of the lake, miles away from what’s known as the Geothermal Resource Area in Imperial County where a trial run is taking place to determine if commercial lithium can be extracted, she still has concerns. Gutierrez said “it’s not only going to impact residents in the southern end, it’s really going to impact the entire region,” in reference to the ongoing pilot programs. Governor Gavin Newsom recently touted in a press release that California already has nearly 500,000 green energy jobs, which is two times more than any other state. Geothermal lithium represents an opportunity to expand those figures. Newsom joined President Joe Biden on February 22 for a virtual event on the energy industry. The president announced a $35 million award to "MP Materials, to separate and process heavy rare earth elements at its facility in Mountain Pass, California, establishing a full end-to-end domestic permanent magnet supply chain." President Biden highlighted the potential for economic development as another benefit of California's lithium reserve. He outlined his vision, which includes the creation of jobs he believes will "set America up to lead the world in building a clean energy economy.”

Oak Ridge, TVA to partner on decarbonization technologies - (AP) — The Oak Ridge National Laboratory and the Tennessee Valley Authority announced on Tuesday they have signed a new memorandum of understanding to work together on decarbonization technologies.The partnership will help TVA work toward the goal of net-zero carbon emissions, according to a news release. Under the agreement, the partners will explore capturing carbon directly from the air and converting carbon dioxide into valuable products. They will also explore hydrogen generation, electric vehicle charging, new nuclear reactor technology, long-duration energy storage and grid modernization, among other things. TVA provides electricity to 153 local power companies serving 10 million people in seven states. Oak Ridge is the U.S. Department of Energy’s largest science and energy laboratory. Partnerships between TVA and ORNL date to the earliest days of the lab. Recent collaborations include the first full-scale computer simulation of a working nuclear reactor and installation of 3D-printed reactor components.

In Virginia, abandoned coal mines are transformed into solar farms - In southwest Virginia, abandoned coal mines are being transformed into solar installations that will be large enough to contribute renewable energy to the electric grid. Six old mining sites owned by the Nature Conservancy will be some of the first utility-scale solar farms in the region — and the nonprofit group hopes it’s creating a model that can be replicated nationwide.In 2019, the Nature Conservancy acquired 253,000 acres of forest in the central Appalachian Mountains that it calls the Cumberland Forest Project. It’s one small part of the group’s efforts in the mountain range, which reaches from Alabama to Canada.“We’ve identified the Appalachians as one of the most important places on Earth for us to do conservation,” says Brad Kreps, the Nature Conservancy’s Clinch Valley program director, who is leading the solar projects. “We put the Appalachians in a very rare company along with the Amazon, the wild lands of Kenya and the forests of Borneo.”The Cumberland Forest includes several abandoned mine sites scattered around Virginia’s coal fields region. Solar developers partnering with the Nature Conservancy, such as Dominion Energy and Sun Tribe, say the mine sites have vast flat areas exposed to sunlight that are a rarity in the mountains, and the sites offer advantages like being close to transmission lines.

Oklahoma wind farm sanctioned for safety violations is sold to new ownership — NextEra Energy Resources plans to build 57 new wind turbines across part of Oklahoma's Panhandle as part of a project that will replace one owned by Olympia Renewable Platform LLC that was sanctioned by regulators for safety violations. NextEra officials said this week the company closed on a deal to acquire Olympia's rights to harvest wind energy from an area between Guymon and Hardesty for an undisclosed amount. The Public Utility Division of the Oklahoma Corporation Commission took a closer look at Olympia's wind farm nearly a year ago after being notified about potential safety issues involving failed turbines at the location. As part of the deal, the company is acquiring key transmission substations previously built as part of the project and were owned by Olympia that will move power generated by NextEra turbines onto the Southwest Power Pool's grid.

 Sri Lanka engulfed by power cuts and fuel shortages --Sri Lanka’s state-owned Ceylon Electricity Board (CEB), which began power cuts across the island last week, yesterday extended its daily shutdowns to 5 hours and 15 minutes. The Public Utilities Commission of Sri Lanka, a government agency monitoring utility services, said that weekend power cuts would be limited to three hours during the day. However, it indicated that the situation could be more severe the next week, if the CEB does not secure adequate oil supplies for power generation. The island nation faces fuel shortages because of its escalating debt and foreign currency crisis. Several power generating plants have ground to a halt or are running at under capacity. The country’s hydro power stations have also been adversely impacted by low dam levels caused by dry weather conditions. While electricity cuts and shortage of petroleum products have been frequent in recent months, the crisis has taken a more drastic turn, with the day-to-day activities of millions of people and their livelihoods disrupted. Sri Lanka’s fuel shortage, diesel in particular, is impacting on transport with long queues outside fuel distribution stations. Yesterday National Water Supply and Drainage Board sources told the media that water supplies will be affected because of power disruptions at purifying plants and the lack of alternative electricity supplies. Desperate to drive up foreign exchange earnings, the government has exempted export-processing free trade zones from the cuts. Big business fears have been reflected in sharp falls on the Sri Lankan stock market. On February 23, the stock market suffered its steepest fall with 700 billion rupees wiped off share values. An editorial in Thursday’s Daily Mirror entitled “Empty treasury, power cuts, fuel shortages and nonsense” declared that Sri Lanka “is running out of options regarding imports of basics which the country depends on like fuel, our staple food rice and medicines.” The warning reflected growing uneasiness by sections of the ruling elite that the crisis will generate another wave of working-class strikes and protests. The heavily-indebted CEB has no money to buy diesel from Ceylon Petroleum Corporation (CPC), which it in turn cannot secure finance to pay for oil in tankers already anchored in Colombo Port. Confronting rising popular anger about the worsening situation, President Gotabhaya Rajapakse called an emergency cabinet meeting on Tuesday to discuss the country’s “financial situation.”

How Texas's electric grid ties to retirement savings — Texas requires at least half of all electricity generated to come from natural gas. And, last year, lawmakers passed a bill to boycott any investment company who refuses to invest in the oil and gas industry.“Send an appropriate message that if you don’t want to do business with Texas companies, we won't do business with them,” said Brent Bennett, Ph.D., the policy director for Texas Public Policy Foundation, in a legislative hearing last year.It’s not that simple. Texas needs to build more reliability into the power grid.The state uses two main sources of energy for electricity. Natural gas and wind make up more than three-quarters of our energy mix. Both industries play a role around the nation.Texas is the largest natural gas exporter in the U.S., and Texas exports more wind-generated energy than any other state.“We have to encourage the expansion of renewables because they’re cheaper. That's changing the way we do business, changing the way we allow people or companies to invest,” said Craig Nazor, conservation chair with the Sierra Club, Lone Star Chapter.Renewables need more investment dollars for storage.“But the thing is, it takes money upfront,” Nazor said.The reliability isn’t there without storage.The state’s grid manager, the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT), shows Texas had469 megawatts of installed battery storage in September 2021. One megawatt could power about 200 homes in peak demand, ERCOT’s Fact Sheet shows. It wouldn’t cover all of Round Rock, let alone the state.

CPS Energy approves $50M for new retention pool at Spruce Power Plant - Despite opposition from environmental activists, CPS Energy trustees Monday approved the construction of a $50 million retention pond for the J.K. Spruce Power Plant to comply with an Environmental Protection Agency rule on coal ash storage. The rule, finalized in 2020, prohibits utilities from storing coal ash, the material left over from coal being burned, in unlined storage ponds. Coal ash contains contaminants such as mercury, cadmium and arsenic, which can pollute waterways, groundwater and the air. Environmentalists hoped noncompliance with the new rule might push the utility to retire the coal plants earlier. But in a unanimous vote during the utility’s regular monthly meeting, the utility’s five trustees — including Francine Romero, in her first meeting as a trustee — approved building the 3-acre, double-lined retention pond. The new pond would replace two existing single-lined ponds, said Benny Etheridge, the utility’s executive vice president of energy supply. Retrofitting those ponds would have been more expensive than building a new one, Etheridge said in response to questions from trustees. While electric utilities were given until April 11, 2021, to come into compliance with the new rule, CPS Energy asked the Texas Commission on Environmental Quality, acting on the EPA’s behalf, for an extension to Sept. 1, 2023. That request is “under consideration,” Etheridge said.

Ex-House Speaker Michael Madigan indicted on racketeering charges - Chicago Tribune -- Former Illinois House Speaker Michael Madigan, for decades the most powerful politician in the state, was indicted Wednesday on federal racketeering charges alleging his elected office and political operation were a criminal enterprise that provided personal financial rewards for him and his associates.The 22-count indictment returned by a federal grand jury comes after a yearslong federal investigation and alleges Madigan participated in an array of bribery and extortion schemes from 2011 to 2019 aimed at using the power of his office for personal gain.The long-awaited charges punctuate a stunning downfall for Madigan, the longest serving leader of any legislative chamber in the nation who held an ironclad grip on the state legislature as well as the Democratic party and its political spoils. He was dethroned as speaker in early 2021 as the investigation swirled around him, and soon after resigned the House seat he’d held since 1971. Both Madigan and his attorneys denied the allegations in written statements Wednesday and said they intended to fight them in court. Also charged in the indictment was Madigan’s longtime confidant, Michael McClain, a former state legislator and lobbyist who is facing separate charges alleging he orchestrated an alleged bribery scheme by Commonwealth Edison.That same alleged scheme forms the backbone of the indictment returned Wednesday, outlining a plan by the utility giant to pay thousands of dollars to lobbyists favored by Madigan in order to win his influence over legislation the company wanted passed in Springfield.The indictment also accused Madigan of illegally soliciting business for his private property tax law firm during discussions to turn a state-owned parcel of land in Chinatown into a commercial development.Though the land deal never was consummated, it’s been a source of continued interest for federal investigators, who in 2020 subpoenaed Madigan’s office for records and communications he’d had with key players. In addition to the criminal charges, the indictment also contains a forfeiture allegation against both Madigan and McClain seeking $2.8 million in alleged ill-gotten gains.

House holds hearing on state mining office, most speakers oppose changes - — Multiple speakers at a House of Delegates public hearing Monday challenged a proposal on the state Office of Miner’s Health Safety and Training, sharing concerns about how changes could affect miner safety. House Bill 4840 would shift the agency’s goals from enforcing and executing the state’s mining laws to assisting mine operators and providing “alternative mechanisms of enforcement.” Compliance visits to mines would happen as frequently as the office’s director would deem necessary. Most speakers opposed the bill, saying the legislation would reduce safety for coal miners. “Every one of these laws that’s written, state and federal, they’re not wrote by ink. They’re wrote by blood,” said Barry Brown, a coal miner with 32 years of underground mining experience. “Every one of these laws has blood on them. … Doing away with the state department and their enforcement, I think, would be the worse thing that this state could do.” The agency currently focuses on inspecting mining locations and issuing penalties against operators. Officials also work with federal agencies on investigations. “We keep cutting walls and stuff. We keep taking shortcuts,” Brown said. “I’m a union guy, and I believe when you take shortcuts, that is when things are going to happen, and we’re opening up the doors for this.”

WV House abandons bill that would take away enforcement authority from state mine safety office - The West Virginia House of Delegates did not take up a mine union-opposed, coal industry-backed bill that would take away enforcement authority from the state’s mine safety o‘ce Wednesday, eectively cutting o the bill’s path toward passage. Wednesday marked the last day for bills to be passed out of their chamber of origin in the Legislature, leaving House Bill 4840 with no viable path forward. The House adjourned late Wednesday afternoon without taking up HB 4840, which provoked impassioned opposition from miners and the United Mine Workers of America union leaders. The House’s move marked a turnaround from Tuesday, when it voted 65-24 against postponing consideration of the bill indeønitely. The bill as advanced by the House Government Organization Committee last week would remove the powers of the state O‘ce of Miners’ Health, Safety and Training to issue orders or ønancial penalties to mine operators for failing to meet safety standards and lessen the experience required for apprentices to be certiøed as miners. The bill struck out statutory references to “inspections” and “orders,” renaming them “visits” and “recommendations,” respectively. Josh Roberts, UMWA director of health and safety, applauded the bill’s failure to advance Wednesday. “Coal miners’ voices were heard loud and clear,” Roberts said in an emailed statement Wednesday evening. Roberts joined nearly two dozen miners and other mine safety advocates in speaking out against HB 4840 during a public hearing on the bill at the House Chamber on Monday, three days after the bill was originated in and advanced out of the Government Organization Committee. HB 4840 would remove the minimum number of “visits” that mine inspectors must make to all mines in their districts, discard a requirement that governor nominees to the state mine safety board representing operators have experience in “health and safety,” and get rid of a provision allowing for inspectors to examine mines with no advance notice.

Environmental group has concerns for future landfill. -An environmental group has expressed concerns regarding a proposed landfill's impact on fish. The landfill, the Environmental Management Disposal Facility, still has more steps before the U.S. Department of Energy can use it for demolition debris from old contaminated federal buildings at Y-12 National Security Complex and Oak Ridge National Laboratory. The Southern Environmental Law Center has sent letters to the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, expressing concerns about procedures with this future landfill. They are also concerned with water pollution that might occur and which they say has already occurred with the existing on-site landfill, the Environmental Management Waste Management Facility. That facility has held similar waste to what the EMDF will hold, such as "soil, sediment, building demolition debris, personal protection equipment, and scrap equipment," as stated on DOE's website. “The existing landfill has been already discharging radionuclide pollution into Bear Creek for many years and unfortunately without any real limits on those discharges,” Amanda Garcia, director of the Tennessee office for the Southern Environmental Law Center told The Oak Ridger.

 Uranium may regain 'critical' status despite USGS move - The U.S. Geological Survey removed uranium from the federal critical minerals list, but it may not be long before the U.S. government once again declares the radioactive material “critical.”USGS finalized a proposal last week to remove uranium from its list of minerals deemed vital to national and economic security, citing a legal requirement that fuel minerals be kept off the last. It was a defeat for American uranium producers, which won the designation under the Trump administration after years of struggling with low market prices.But the following day, the Department of Energy disclosed in a report on minerals strategy that it was preparing its own list of “critical materials,” piggybacking off the USGS effort.“While the U.S. Geological Survey has updated the critical minerals list,” DOE stated, “there may be materials critical for the clean energy transition that are not included in this critical minerals list.” The department didn’t disclose whether uranium would be included on the “critical materials” list. The document described uranium as a material “of concern,” along with cobalt, tellurium and rare earth elements on the USGS critical minerals list.The department will soon consult with “stakeholders” to “create a process” for recommending or establishing critical materials vital for DOE’s mission areas, Smith said. The process will “be developed in the near future.”There are risks to any nation relying on foreign sources of uranium because large portions of the nuclear fuel supply chain run through Russia, as well as Kazakhstan, a former Soviet state, which is currently in turmoil and wrestling with Russian President Vladimir Putin’s influence. Evidence of these risks has piled up in the last two years. Lockdowns against the coronavirus pandemic knocked major uranium mines offline, creating a supply shock that sent the price of uranium skyward. Other events — like Russia’s invasion of Ukraine — have further heightened the drama around uranium prices.Advocates for keeping uranium’s “critical” label argue this kind of volatility in minerals markets tied to geopolitics should be integral to policy planning around critical minerals. DOE is in the process of establishing a national uranium reserve, funded by Congress, for the express purpose of addressing these risks (E&E Daily, Sept. 16, 2021).However, despite support for nuclear energy growing more bipartisan, uranium’s inclusion on the 2018 critical minerals list caused consternation among Democratic politicians and environmental activists.In particular, foes of the listing saw it as a precursor to opening areas near the Grand Canyon to new uranium extraction.

Exclusive - U.S. utilities push White House not to sanction Russian uranium (Reuters) - The U.S. nuclear power industry is lobbying the White House to allow uranium imports from Russia to continue despite the escalating conflict in Ukraine, with cheap supplies of the fuel seen as key to keeping American electricity prices low, according to two sources familiar with the matter. The United States relies on Russia and its allies Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan for roughly half of the uranium powering its nuclear plants - about 22.8 million pounds (10.3 million kg) in 2020 - which in turn produce about 20% of U.S. electricity, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration and the World Nuclear Association. Washington and its allies have imposed a series of sanctions on Moscow in the past week as Russian forces pushed deeper into neighboring Ukraine, though the sanctions exempt uranium sales and related financial transactions. The National Energy Institute (NEI), a trade group of U.S. nuclear power generation companies including Duke Energy Corp and Exelon Corp, is lobbying the White House to keep the exemption on uranium imports from Russia, the sources said. The NEI lobbying aims to ensure that uranium is not caught up in any future energy-related sanctions, especially as calls intensify to sanction Russian crude oil sales, the sources said. "The (U.S. nuclear power) industry is just addicted to cheap Russian uranium," said one of the sources, who declined to be named, citing the sensitivity of the situation. Washington-based NEI said that it supports a diversity of uranium supply, including the development of U.S. facilities to produce and process the fuel. "While Russia is a significant global supplier of commercial nuclear fuel, U.S. utilities contract with a worldwide network of companies and countries for their fuel requirements to mitigate the risks of potential disruption," said Nima Ashkeboussi, NEI's senior director of fuel and radiation safety. "We are listening to all inquiries from industry and will continue to do so as we take measures to hold Russia accountable," a White House official said when asked about the uranium lobbying. Uranium is used as a fuel inside reactors to achieve nuclear fission to boil water and generate steam that spins turbines to generate electricity. There is no uranium production or processing in the United States currently, though several companies have said they would like to resume domestic production if they can sign long-term supply contracts with nuclear power producers. Texas and Wyoming have large uranium reserves. Australia and Canada also have large reserves of uranium and there is ample processing capability there and in Europe. But Russia and its satellites are the cheapest producers. The U.S. nuclear power industry's use of Russian uranium is likely to spark further questions about where and how the United States procures the materials needed to supply high-tech and renewable-energy products, a dependency that President Joe Biden singled out last week as a national security threat.

Decommissioned Washington state nuclear site evacuated after reports of shots fired - A decommissioned nuclear site in Washington state, the Hanford Site, returned to normal operations on Tuesday after it was evacuated on reports that shots had been fired at the location. The site announced in a statement Tuesday afternoon that personnel were allowed to “return to their normal duties” after authorities determined that local “work activities” caused the noises that were reported as gunshots. “Current reports indicated work activities in the immediate area likely caused the noises originally reported as shots fired to the Patrol Operations Center,” the site wrote in a statement. "Hanford Site personnel, with the exception of 2750E Building personnel, can now return to their normal duties," the site added. An investigation is ongoing at the 2750E Building in the 200 East Area, according to the site. The Department of Energy and Richard Operations Office responded to the scene of the Hanford Site on Tuesday after authorities received reports that shots had been fired, according to a statement from the nuclear site. Authorities did not discover evidence of shots fired or any injuries. Hanford personnel interviewed employees that made the initial reports. “As a precaution, affected 2750 E personnel have been evacuated, and access to the Hanford Site has been restricted. No actions are necessary for the public,” the nuclear site said in an initial statement. The Benton County Sheriff’s Office, Hanford Patrol and other agencies also responded to the site on the reports of shots being fired, according to a Facebook post from the sheriff’s office. At 11:28 a.m. local time, the sheriff’s office said the building had been searched by law enforcement and no evidence of shots being fired had been recovered. No victims were located inside the building.Starting in 1943, the Hanford Site was utilized to manufacture plutonium for the Manhattan Project, which produced the bombs that brought an end to World War II. In 1989, the site moved from production to cleanup. It has since become a tourist destination, according to The Associated Press. In July, a report from the Washington state government found that more than half of all current and former workers who took part in the Hanford Nuclear Reservation cleanup effort claimed to have been exposed to hazardous materials.

Heinrich, Cruz team up to oppose nuclear waste projects -Texas and New Mexico lawmakers are hoping for a spending bill rider to block nuclear waste shipments to their states. - Texas and New Mexico lawmakers are taking bipartisan action against nuclear waste storage plans in their states, and it could affect talks surrounding a fiscal 2022 omnibus spending package.Sen. Martin Heinrich (D-N.M.) is joining Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) to introduce legislation as soon as today that would prevent the Department of Energy from spending funds to store nuclear waste at a pair of private interim storage sites in West Texas and southeastern New Mexico.A similar measure is underway in the House from Reps. August Pfluger (R-Texas) and Teresa Leger Fernandez (D-N.M.), with the goal of pressing appropriators to include the language as a policy rider in the fiscal 2022 omnibus spending bill, set for consideration next week, according to congressional sources. The lawmakers involved did not return requests for comment on those specific efforts, nor did spokespeople for top House and Senate appropriators, but an aide confirmed the spending bill strategy.

All-out efforts to protect nuclear power plant from massive wildfire, South Korea - (videos) A massive wildfire that broke out in South Korea's eastern coastal county of Uljin forced President Moon Jae-in to order all-out efforts to protect the nearby Hanul Nuclear Power Plant on Friday, March 4, 2022.The government issued a natural disaster alert after a wildfire broke out in the county of Uljin, North Gyeongsang Province on Friday, about 10 km (6.2 miles) from the Hanul Nuclear Power Plant.¹"Place the top priority on preventing casualties and put every possible effort into swiftly putting out the fire," Moon told officials after being briefed on the wildfire.Dozens of helicopters and about 1 000 firefighters were sent to the scene to contain the blaze and prevent it from spreading to the power plant.²The fire reached the perimeter of the utility, forcing the operator to reduce operations to 50%, but the plant has sustained no damage so far, according to the Korea Forest Service."We have formed a line of defense there," a forest service official said on TV, referring to the perimeter of the plant. "We are not seeing any big damage near the nuclear plant area as of now." Later in the day, winds drove the fire northward toward Samcheok. At least 22 homes and 9 other buildings were destroyed. About 4 000 residents were evacuated early Friday morning, but most of them returned by the end of the day.

The biggest nuclear plant in Europe is on fire - Reported Russian shelling of Europe's largest nuclear plant has led to fear of a possible radiation leak in the area. Andriy Tuz, a spokesperson for the Zaporizhzhia plant in the city of Enerhodar in southeastern Ukraine sent word to Ukrainian television reporters that shells were falling directly on the plant, setting fire to one of the facility's six reactors, according to AP News. According to a government official contributing to the AP News report, "elevated levels of radiation were detected near the plant, which provides about 25% of Ukraine's power generation."Plant spokesman Tuz is stating that firefighters are unable to get near the flames as they're being shot at, which makes the situation even more precarious. "We demand that they stop the heavy weapons fire," Tuz said in a video statement. "There is a real threat of nuclear danger in the biggest atomic energy station in Europe."Prior to the shelling which resulted in the nuclear plant fire, Dmytro Orlov, the mayor of Enerhodar gave word that "Ukrainian forces were battling Russian troops on the city's outskirts," according to AP News. It was further reported by The Ukrainian state atomic energy company that Russian military forces had been spotted heading toward the nuclear plant, and that the sounds of warfare could be heard. "A threat to world security!!! As a result of relentless shelling by the enemy of the buildings and blocks of the largest nuclear power plant in Europe, the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant is on fire!!!" Orlov posted to Facebook in the early hours of Friday morning local time, as reported by CNN.

Ukraine nuclear plant update: Russian attack released no radiation, IAEA chief says - Rafael Mariano Grossi, Director General of the International Atomic Energy Agency, confirmed in a press conference from Vienna, Austria, that a training facility building at the Zaporizhzhia Power Plant in Ukraine was hit by a Russian projectile and Ukrainian fire fighters extinguished the ensuing fire. “We are fortunate there was no release of radiation and the integrity of the reactors was not compromised,” Gross said in the press conference, but said it’s time for “action. “We need to do something about this.” He said he wants to head to Chernobyl for a meeting so that both sides of the conflict can agree to a framework to avoid attacking nuclear power plants in the future. “We are ready to move,” he said of the IAEA. He said that two security people at the plant were injured in the attack. "I think we should not wait for something like this to happen" again, he added.

FEMA: In Case Of Nuclear Explosion, Maintain Social Distancing And Wear A Mask - The US government has a long history of fun and interesting advice when it comes to imminent death... Now, the Federal Emergency Management Agency, or FEMA, has issued updated guidance to its "Nuclear Explosion" readiness public awareness website, which includes tips to avoid Covid! "A nuclear explosion may occur with or without a few minutes warning," reads the page, which was updated on Friday. "Fallout is most dangerous in the first few hours after the detonation when it is giving off the highest levels of radiation. It takes time for fallout to arrive back to ground level, often more than 15 minutes for areas outside of the immediate blast damage zones.FEMA recommends the following steps to prevent 'significant radiation exposure,' which include "Try to maintain a distance of at least six feet between yourself and people who are not part of your household," and "If possible, wear a mask if you're sheltering with people who are not part of your household."In case of a nuclear explosion, FEMA warns to try to keep 6 ft social distance and wear a mask for covid. You can’t make this up pic.twitter.com/LfxFX1dZoS What's more, "If you are experiencing a medical emergency, call 9-1-1 and let the operator know if you have, or think you might have, Covid-19. If you can, put on a mask before help arrives." "Many people already feel fear and anxiety about the coronavirus 2019 (COVID-19). The threat of nuclear explosion can add additional stress."Hazards related to nuclear explosions include:

• Bright FLASH can cause temporary blindness for less than a minute.
• BLAST WAVE can cause death, injury, and damage to structures several miles out from the blast.
• RADIATION can damage cells of the body. Large exposures can cause radiation sickness.
• FIRE AND HEAT can cause death, burn injuries, and damage to structures several miles out.
• ELECTROMAGNETIC PULSE (EMP) can damage electrical power equipment and electronics several miles out from the detonation and cause temporary disruptions further out.
• FALLOUT is radioactive, visible dirt and debris raining down from several miles up that can cause sickness to those who are outside.

FEMA also says you have 10 minutes after the shock wave passes to find the "nearest, best shelter location" if you're outdoors when a nuke goes off, as radiation levels are the highest immediately after the fallout arrives. But whatever you do, remember to wear your mask and practice social distancing while you hopefully avoid a painful cancerous death.

Eastern Ohio takes center stage at gas and oil convention - — Eastern Ohio’s major role in the energy sector was highlighted last week during the Ohio Oil and Gas Association’s annual meeting.The three-day event included workshops, a trade show, receptions, an awards ceremony, panel discussions and a keynote address by Ohio Attorney General Dave Yost. But a panel discussion Thursday morning, titled Industry Through the Eyes of the Community, brought the experiences of local residents to the fore.Landowner Larry Cain represented Belmont County, whiile Monroe County Commissioner Mick Schumacher and Nick Homrighausen, executive director of community and economic development for Harrison County, also served as panelists. The three men discussed a variety of ways oil and gas development have impacted the local region.One observation they all shared is that area well pads and associated operations are all “so clean.”Cain, a third-generation dairy farmer who works in partnership with his son on the Cain Family Farm, described the land use that is possible despite having two well pads and 11 horizontal wells on their farm. He said the pads — and even their associated pipelines — are far less intrusive than he had expected.“We are able to farm right up to the edge of the pad,” he told the convention attendees.He compared the drilling, fracking and production from the wells to past coal mines that operated in the area for many decades.“Coal mining was way more environmentally damaging, “ he recalled. “We don’t have our cattle dying. We don’t have erosion issues.”He also spoke of allowing people to tour the pad sites.“The first thing we hear is how clean it is,” he added. “People who do not approve go away with a different picture” of the industry. Cain also pointed to the changes — some readily apparent and others a bit harder to see — that have resulted from gas and oil development in Belmont County. He cited improvements to family farms, purchases of tractors and other new vehicles, construction of new buildings, tractors and home remodeling as some examples. He also pointed out that many people who leasd their mineral rights are now better able to invest in an education for their children or grandchildren and to pay down their debt.

Utica Shale Academy beneficiary of $75K donation - Ascent Resources, in partnership with the Ohio Oil and Gas Association, has donated $75,000 to the Utica Shale Academy USA. The money will be used to build an outdoor welding lab. That will allow students to weld in varying weather conditions, the way they would have to on the job.

Ohio Board Reaffirms Tax On Fracking Co.'s Equipment – Law360 - The Ohio Board of Tax Appeals affirmed on remand Friday that a hydraulic fracturing company's equipment purchases were taxable, upholding nearly two dozen sales tax assessments levied against the company....

Modified Air Permit Sought for Proposed Ethane Cracker Plant in Belmont County — An air pollution permit issued for the proposed PTT Global Chemical America ethane cracker in Belmont County expired Thursday, but the company is applying for a modified permit that would be in keeping with a goal of reducing emissions.Groups opposed to the development, though, say the application for a new permit should be denied.“PTTGC America is in the process of drafting an application for an air permit from the Ohio Environmental Protection Agency in accordance with its parent company’s Net Zero commitment,” the company states in a new release issued last week.The Ohio EPA issued the initial air permit-to-install for PTTGCA’s planned petrochemical complex in December 2018.The modified permit application “will be consistent with the ambitious environmental protection goal announced last year by GC, PTTGCA’s Thai-based parent company,” the company continues.“GC announced in October it will reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 20% by 2030 and achieve a net-zero emissions goal by 2050 in order to fight climate change.”A cracker plant is an industrial facility that uses heat and chemical processes to “crack” or break down ethane molecules to produce ethylene, a component of plastics and other products such as textiles, paint, household cleaners and more. If the PTTGCA plant is constructed, it will use locally produced natural gas to fuel its six furnaces. Ethane is one of the abundant “wet gas” components of the local natural gas stream drawn from the Utica and Marcellus shales.This is the second time this particular permit has become an issue for PTTGCA. In June, the OEPA extended the permit that initially was set to expire June 22.Regarding the expiration of the permit on Thursday, the Concerned Ohio River Residents sent a letter to Belmont County commissioners and Port Authority Director Larry Merry, suggesting it is time for the county to pursue other avenues of economic development.“Something to ponder as we move into this new year. The cracker plant’s air permit dies this week and here is some financial information you likely haven’t seen,” Beverly Reed, a community organizer with CORR, wrote in reference to a report from the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis. “It is important as leaders to look at all the facts, and not just what one side is telling you. … The reason why we do what we do is because we love this Valley. We want long term, sustainable futures for people.“These people have strung you and us along for long enough,” Reed continued. “It is time to start looking in a new direction. There are alternative options out there for the Ohio Valley.”

Pennsylvania Natural Gas Production Growth Slows in Late 2021 -- Unconventional natural gas production volume growth in Pennsylvania decelerated during the fourth quarter according to the state’s Independent Fiscal Office (IFO).IFO reported horizontal gas well production volume of 1.949 Tcf for 4Q2021, representing a 6.7% year/year growth rate. That was lower than the 7.2% uptick that data showed for 3Q2021.For 2021, IFO said Pennsylvania’s production grew by 6.8%, up from 4% in 2020, which was marred by Covid-19 disruptions. The agency also had reported a strong start to 2021.“Despite the increase from prior year growth, the rate of 6.8% still represents a deceleration from pre-pandemic rates,” stated IFO. “From 2016 to 2019, horizontal production volume increased,” climbing on average by about 10.2%/year.The IFO said horizontal wells produce more than 99% of the state’s natural gas.Only five counties accounted for three-fourths of gas production volumes in 2021, with Susquehanna County commanding a 21.4% share, IFO stated. The other top counties were Washington (18.4%), followed by Bradford (15.3%), Green (14.4%), and Lycoming (5.5%). Pennsylvania is the United States’ second-largest natural gas producer, after Texas. Other states rounding out the top five include Alaska, Louisiana and West Virginia.

WhiteHawk Energy Announces Agreement to Acquire Core Marcellus Shale Natural Gas Minerals and Royalty Assets for $52.5 Million -- WhiteHawk Energy, LLC announced today an affiliate's definitive agreement to acquire $52.5 million of natural gas minerals and royalty assets located in Southwestern Pennsylvania. The Marcellus Royalties are primarily focused in Washington and Greene counties Pennsylvania, representing some of the highest quality natural gas reserves in the United States. WhiteHawk's position will cover approximately 475,000 gross unit acres in the Marcellus Shale, with additional upside from the underlying Utica Shale. Approximately 95% of production, cash flow, and present value is anchored by best-in-class natural gas operators EQT Corporation, Range Resources and CNX Resources. Under the Appalachia Agreement, WhiteHawk will acquire up to $52.5 million of the Marcellus Royalties through October 2022. Pro forma for this transaction, the seller owns approximately 45,000 net royalty acres in Southwest Appalachia and both parties expect to continue dialogue around future potential transactions in the region.

Republicans Urge Gov. Wolf: Unleash Pennsylvania's Immense Gas Reserves - Looking at the instability of the European energy markets, Pennsylvania House Republicans are urging Gov. Tom Wolf to unleash Pennsylvania’s natural gas stores to power the world. The largest natural gas reserve in the United States is mostly underground, in Pennsylvania and West Virginia. “If our region was its own country, we’d be the eighth largest natural gas producing country in the world,” Dan Weaver, president, and executive director of the Pennsylvania Independent Oil & Gas Association told The Epoch Times. That includes Pennsylvania, West Virginia, and Ohio. In one of many actions signifying an intentional move to renewable energy sources like wind and solar, President Biden signed an executive order on his first day in office, stopping the construction of the Keystone XL Pipeline. Without pipeline infrastructure, it’s tough to move large amounts of natural gas. “U.S. West Coast refineries rely on imports of light sweet crude oil from other countries, including Russia, because access to U.S. produced light sweet crude oil is challenged by geography, transportation, and logistics,” a recent posting at the American Fuel & Petrochemical Manufacturers website says. Resistance to pipeline construction is costing the United States its energy independence. “For us to shut down or condemn producing oil and natural gas here in the United States, where we can control the environmental standards, and to ask for oil from other countries that don’t have the same stringent standards as we do, is ludicrous,” Weaver said. “They shut down a pipeline on day one, and then six months later basically say, to people that don’t like us very much, would you send us more oil? We have the ability to be completely energy independent, right under our feet, and still have the ability to help our allies in Europe by sending [liquified natural gas] over to them.” The XL Pipeline is not the only roadblock to U.S. energy independence. Republican state Rep. Stan Saylor will soon introduce a resolution to ask New York Gov. Kathy Hochul and New Jersey Gov. Patrick Murphy to end their states’ policies banning the construction of any new natural gas pipelines. Policies that Saylor says have walled off Pennsylvania’s natural gas from accessing markets in New England and forced New England states to rely on liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports from foreign nations, including Russia. “Not only have anti-energy policies from President Joe Biden down to blue-state governors resulted in increased costs to consumers, but they mean that we as a country are helping to finance Vladimir Putin’s unprovoked war on Ukraine through oil and natural gas imports. It’s unconscionable and outright shameful,” Saylor said in a statement. “I also urge Gov. Tom Wolf to call his fellow blue-state governors and urge them to reverse their pro-Putin pipeline bans. Our response, as a commonwealth and as a nation, to Russia’s aggressions toward a sovereign country must go beyond lighting up buildings in blue and gold and pulling Russian vodka from liquor store shelves.” In addition to Saylor’s pending resolution, 15 Pennsylvania House Republicans signed a letter Tuesday demanding Wolf does everything in his power to support the growth and proliferation of Pennsylvania’s natural gas and energy.

Mass. revives gas ban battle with Boston-area 'smackdown' - The attorney general of Massachusetts on Friday shot down a Boston suburb’s attempt to phase down fossil fuel use in buildings, angering local climate activists and adding to a simmering national debate over natural gas bans. Brookline had voted in 2019 to become the first East Coast town to ban fossil fuel hookups in new buildings. That ban was struck down the following year by the office of Massachusetts Attorney General Maura Healey, a Democrat who praised the town’s climate activism but said the ban conflicted with state laws. Last summer, Brookline’s town board passed bylaws with more limited restrictions discouraging new and retrofitted buildings from using fossil fuels for space heat or hot water, when owners applied for zoning permits. Advertisement On Friday, Healey’s office ruled against those new limits, too, saying they violated multiple state statutes, including a zoning act regulating “the use of materials” in building construction, a law giving the state primacy over building codes and a policy that prescribes “uniform” service from utilities. The finding, which came as part of a routine state review of local ordinances, automatically invalidates Brookline’s bylaws. Healey’s office has targeted fossil fuels in the past with climate lawsuits against oil and gas majors. In its Friday decision, it said Brookline’s bylaws were “clearly consistent” with her office’s goal of transitioning away from fossil fuels, but that courts had repeatedly found that the three state statutes would preempt the gas restrictions. “Although the law requires us to disapprove local initiatives inconsistent with our current state statutes, we will continue to lead efforts in Massachusetts and nationally to protect ratepayers and the environment, make our buildings more efficient, and work alongside our communities to reduce the threat of climate change,” Healey said in a statement. Proponents of Brookline’s measure expressed frustration Friday and called on state legislators to pass a bill explicitly requiring all-electric buildings. “It’s deeply unfortunate that one of the bluest states is actively preventing its towns and cities from taking the most basic and necessary steps to address our climate crisis,”

Safety of Sea 3 Providence propane terminal expansion questioned at EFSB hearing - An expert witness warned of potential dangers — including fire and explosions — if a plan by Sea 3 Providence LLC to expand its propane facility on the city’s working waterfront goes through as planned. Edmund “Fred” Millar, a Washington-based environmental safety consultant, told the state Energy Facility Siting Board that the expansion plan constitutes an “alteration to a major energy facility" and requires comprehensive environmental and safety review under state law. Millar testified this morning at an evidentiary hearing as a witness for the Office of the Rhode Island Attorney General. Sea 3 proposes to add freight rail imports — up to 16 tanker cars per day — and build more storage capacity for liquefied propane gas, or LPG, at its ProvPort fuel terminal. The company asserts that the plan is a mere “minor and ancillary modification” that shouldn’t require a lengthy public review process.In his testimony, Millar called for a full review by the board. He warned of serious safety concerns — including possible fire, explosion, and off-site vapor cloud dispersal — if the project goes through as proposed. He argued that existing federal regulations governing the transport of hazardous materials by rail are “pitiful,” and said that a fire safety analysis conducted by Sea 3 was inadequate to protect public safety.

Manchin lashes out at FERC on pipeline permitting - Senate Energy and Natural Resources Chair Joe Manchin yesterday accused the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission of overstepping its legal authority moving to change the natural gas pipeline certification process. Manchin’s (D-W.Va.) comments, made during a radio interview with West Virginia MetroNews, comes as the moderate Democrat looks to promote U.S. energy production following Russia's invasion of Ukraine. And today, he'll get to question FERC commissioners during a hearing. "FERC made a statement which I thought was absolutely out of their domain, and we are going to hold them to task," Manchin said told host Hoppy Kercheval, who frequently interviews West Virginia's top newsmakers. Those comments will only be amplified during his opening remarks today, according to a preview shown to E&E News ahead of the hearing. Manchin intends to also call out what he is deeming a slow walking of lease sales on federal lands by the Biden administration as part of what he sees as “an effort to inflict death by a thousand cuts on the fossil fuels.”

Manchin moves to help speed up finish of natural gas pipeline — With energy independence a goal discussed by every leader in West Virginia now, Sen. Joe Manchin, D-W.Va., is set to meet with FERC (Federal Energy Regulatory Commission) today to find out why guidelines were changed recently that may impede pipeline construction with even stricter regulations. “FERC reversed decades of precedent,” he said of new guidelines that require stricter considerations in several areas. “It is a tremendous drawback … for our energy reliance and reliability,” Manchin said during a virtual press conference from his Washington office Wednesday. “They (the five members of the FERC board) are going to have to explain to me why they have taken these drastic measures … and why they think they have the ability to do that. Why did they … make those changes?” Manchin, Gov. Jim Justice and Sen. Shelley Moore Capito, R. W.Va., all want to pursue energy independence in light of the impact from the Russian invasion of Ukraine and use natural gas from West Virginia to help do so, as well as help countries in Europe who need it. When FERC made the decision (by a 3-2 vote) on guidelines last month, Manchin, who is chairman of the Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee, was quick to respond. “Today’s reckless decision by FERC’s Democratic Commissioners puts the security of our nation at risk,” he said. “The commission went too far by prioritizing a political agenda over their main mission — ensuring our nation’s energy reliability and security. The only thing they accomplished today was constructing additional road blocks that further delay building out the energy infrastructure our country desperately needs. Energy independence is our greatest geopolitical and economic tool and we cannot lose sight of that as instability rises around the globe.” With the changes, gas pipeline reviews will consider a project’s effect on climate change, look at a wider set of impacts on landowners and environmental justice communities, and scrutinize the economic need related to the public need. On Wednesday, Manchin called the changes “sweeping and ill-informed” and he is now seeking answers, and remedies. “We cannot get a pipeline out of the Marcellus Shale (in north central West Virginia),” he said, referring to the shutdown of the Atlantic Coast Pipeline project and the problems with finishing the Mountain Valley Pipeline (MVP). Both natural gas pipelines were inundated with lawsuits filed by environmental groups that cite the impact on the environment, danger to residents and the validity of going through unwilling landowners’ property because of eminent domain.

Senators question federal regulators on pipeline policy- The Mountain Valley Pipeline was in the spotlight Thursday in Washington, as a Senate committee focused attention on federal regulators and the natural gas projects they oversee.At issue was a recent policy shift by the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission, the agency that regulates projects like the Mountain Valley Pipeline. The new Democratic majority on the commission recently indicated it will consider the impact on climate change as it reviews pipeline projects. US Senator Joe Manchin of West Virginia chairs the U.S. Senate Committee on Energy and Natural Resources.“In my view there is an effort underway by some to inflict death by a thousand cuts,” Manchin said during his opening remarks.During a hearing that called on FERC members to explain their actions, Manchin defended MVP and similar projects.“If the Mountain Valley Pipeline is not completed, and it’s 95% done - over $5 billion, twice the cost because of court interjection -” Manchin said. “If that one is not, there will not be another investment taking the most abundant, plentiful, gas reserves out of an area that could basically backfill, so we don’t have another Texas, so that we have LNG, so that we can do the things we need to.”Russell Chisholm is Coordinator of Mountain Valley Watch and Co-Chair of the Protect Our Water, Heritage, Rights Coalition (POWHR). Chisholm and other pipeline opponents dispute the assertion that the project is almost complete.“We have maps that show it’s roughly three-quarters of a mile, before they come to the first incomplete crossing,” Chisholm said. “That is the distance from mile post zero to where the pipe is not connected together to the rest of the route. And that is true all along the route.”They also cite the key permits MVP lacks, the number of stream crossings that remain and the company’s own status reports that indicate final restoration of the pipeline right-of-way is now about 55% complete.“Our arguments about MVP have been consistent throughout,” Chisholm told WDBJ7 in an interview. “It’s bad for local water sources, it’s bad for land rights issues, for people who have tried to good stewards of the land,” he said. A new argument in favor of projects like MVP is the need to supply European allies with energy following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Opponents dismiss that as an industry talking point that doesn’t diminish the environmental concerns.

Proposal to forbid local gas bans dropped in Senate - Virginia Mercury -A controversial proposal to forbid local governments from banning or limiting use of natural gas has been dropped after House Majority Leader Terry Kilgore revamped a bill Tuesday in a bid to ensure legislation providing businesses with certainty about gas service makes it through the Senate. The last-minute change caught many lawmakers and business, utility and environmental groups off guard. “We’ve got a bill that is substantially different than what you were probably looking at an hour ago,” said Sen. Chap Petersen, D-Fairfax City, at a meeting of the Senate Agriculture, Conservation and Natural Resources Committee Tuesday. The new version of House Bill 1257 presented Tuesday would prohibit any “public entity that provides natural gas utility service” from discontinuing service “generally or to any commercial or industrial customers” without providing three years of notice, undertaking certain negotiations and in some circumstances offering the system up for auction to the highest bidder. Only three localities would be affected by the legislation: the cities of Richmond, Charlottesville and Danville, all of which have municipal gas utilities. Bob Shippee of the Sierra Club Virginia chapter called the pared-down legislation “a much improved version of the bill” but said he still believed it was “a solution seeking a problem that doesn’t actually exist.”

Gas pipeline to island could be set by year-end - Peninsula Pipeline Corp. has obtained two of the five major approvals required to construct a natural gas pipeline to Indian River County’s barrier island, and hopes to have the pipeline finished by the end of the year. However, Florida City Gas may be able to provide natural gas service to residents and businesses even before the pipeline is completed if it can find sites for compressed natural gas trailers on the barrier island, a utility spokeswoman said last week. “Where and when is something we have to determine with private land owners, the county and local municipalities, and then we can arrange for temporary land use for the trailers,” Soriano said. “They are very common throughout the industry to transport compressed natural gas.” Construction on the 11.5-mile pipeline is set to start in the second quarter of 2022 and be completed by the end of the year, said Brianna Patterson, a spokeswoman for Peninsula Pipeline, a subsidiary of Chesapeake Utilities Corp. So far, Peninsula Pipeline has obtained permits from the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers and Florida Department of Transportation, Patterson said. The project still needs permits from the Florida Department of Environmental Protection and Indian River County and a license from Florida East Coast Railway, Patterson said. “PPC has procedures in place to protect the environment during and after construction,” Patterson said. “The pipeline will be designed, constructed and operated in accordance with all regulations and environmental permits.

Russian hacking threat hovers over U.S. gas pipelines - - Nearly 40 percent of the nation's electricity comes from plants burning natural gas, almost all of it arriving by pipelines whose systems offer a ripe target for sabotage.The threat of Russian cyberattacks is calling new attention to a crucial weakness in the United States’ electricity supply: the natural gas pipelines that keep many of the power plants running.Nearly 40 percent of the nation’s electricity comes from plants burning natural gas, almost all of it arriving by pipelines whose systems offer a ripe target for sabotage. But U.S. regulators have complained for years that the cybersecurity standards for pipelines are too weak, especially given the power supply’s growing dependence on gas.Last year’s cyberattack on a critical East Coast gasoline, diesel and jet fuel pipeline brought the issue to the forefront by prompting days of shortages and price spikes for motorists. But a shutdown of a natural gas pipeline could cause even more disruption because power plants typically don’t store significant amounts of the fuel on site — unlike gasoline, which can be stored in huge tanks or transported by truck.The May 2021 attack on Colonial Pipeline — thought to be the largest successful cyberattack on oil infrastructure in U.S. history — led the Department of Homeland Security’s Transportation Security Administration to issue the first mandatory cybersecurity standards for pipelines, after years of relying solely on voluntary guidelines. But Democratic lawmakers, regulators and cybersecurity experts say those standards don’t go nearly far enough, and fall short of the binding standards that the U.S. electricity sector has spent years developing.U.S. regulators or the gas pipeline companies themselves need to address that gaping hole in the nation’s energy security, experts say — noting that the gas and electricity sectors increasingly depend on each other.“We say ‘gas and electricity’ as if they’re separate — they aren’t,” said Craig Miller, a research professor of electrical and computer engineering at Carnegie Mellon University, and former chief scientist of the National Rural Electric Cooperative Association. “You don’t move gas without electricity: You need pumps. And you don’t make electricity without gas.”The Russian invasion of Ukraine has only exacerbated fears of a cyberattackon critical energy infrastructure. Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm urged energy executives last week to prepare “to the highest possible level” for a potential cyberattack from Russia. “While there remains no specific credible threat to the homeland from Russia, that I am aware of, the U.S. Government has been working with energy sector owners and operators to prepare for all geopolitical contingencies,” she wrote in a letter to industry trade organizations.

DT Midstream Trumpets Growth in Haynesville, Carbon-Neutral Pipeline Expansion --Natural gas pipeline and storage provider DT Midstream Inc. (DTM) said it would ramp up investments in new projects over five years and held up as a key example a new endeavor in the Haynesville Shale to capitalize on mounting demand for liquefied natural gas (LNG). The Detroit-based midstream company, with a portfolio that includes 900 miles of regulated interstate gas pipelines and more than 1,000 miles of gathering lines, said Friday it would invest between $1.2 billion to $1.7 billion as part of a five-year growth plan.“We have executed new agreements” that “will result in a multi-year investment in connecting increasing Haynesville supply to growing LNG export demand,” CEO David Slater said Friday during an earnings call with analysts. “The fundamentals around our Haynesville system continue to be strong, with expected growth in both production and LNG exports.”DTM is emphasizing projects that feed into areas ripe for expansion, and the blossoming U.S. export market is central to its efforts. The United States was already poised to become the world’s largest LNG exporter in 2022 before Russia on Thursday launched an offensive on Ukraine.American exports of the super-chilled fuel have hovered near or above 13 Bcf – around record feed gas levels – much of February, with demand strong from both Asia and Europe. Following the assault on Ukraine, demand could mount further because Europe gets roughly a third of its gas from Russia, and amid war, the continent could turn to the United States for more of its supplies.What makes DTM’s new project unique, Slater said, is that it would use electric compression supplied by renewable generation and employ carbon capture and storage (CCS) technology to minimize emissions. This should help both DTM and its LNG clients meet low-carbon initiatives. It would move fuel to Louisiana’s Gillis hub, a key delivery point for export supply.

Southwestern Accelerating Haynesville Natural Gas Development - Southwestern Energy Co. expects to spend more in the Haynesville Shale during 2022 after entering the play last year to become the nation’s second largest natural gas producer. The Houston-based independent also became the Haynesville’s largest operator after acquiring Indigo Natural Resources LLC in September and completed the GEP Haynesville takeover at year’s end. As a result, the fourth quarter results did not include the GEP operations. “Now that we have assumed operations, we see an opportunity to improve on the overall operational execution by leveraging our full field development expertise,” COO Clay Carrell said during a year-end call to discuss the financial results. The company was still active in the play during the fourth quarter, when it turned 21 wells to sales. Carrell said last week that activity had picked up this year. The early data is encouraging, confirming the “Tier One reservoir quality” underlying the new properties in Louisiana. “Our new Haynesville assets complement our premium Appalachia position by deepening the company’s inventory, expanding market optionality and reach, including globally through the liquefied natural gas corridor, while lowering the risk profile of the enterprise,” said CEO Bill Way. Capital expenditures are set at $1.9-2.0 billion this year. About 55% of the budget is earmarked for the Haynesville, with the rest to be spent in the Appalachian Basin assets in Ohio, Pennsylvania and West Virginia. The company’s plans call for turning 70-75 wells to sales in the Haynesville and another 60-65 to sales in Appalachia. The company also said it would continue to spend on environmental, social and governance (ESG) initiatives after recently announcing plans to have a third party certify natural gas production in both plays. The company said it has budgeted up to $20 million for ESG and would prioritize emissions reductions and water conservation efforts. Overall, the company expects to produce 4.7 Bcfe/d this year, up 1.7 Bcfe from year-end 2020 before it entered the Haynesville.

U.S. natgas slides on warmer forecasts, despite Russia supply concerns (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures slid almost 2% to a near two-week low on Monday as the market focused on forecasts for less cold American weather over the next two weeks, rather than worries that escalating sanctions against Russia over its invasion of Ukraine will disrupt global energy supplies. Those global supply concerns caused overseas gas and oil prices to soar on Monday. But traders said the U.S. gas market mostly shrugged off what was happening in Europe, where gas prices jumped by as much as 35% at the start of Monday's session. Before Russia's invasion, the United States worked with other countries to ensure that gas supplies, mostly LNG, would keep flowing to Europe. Russia usually provides around 30% to 40% of Europe's gas, which totaled about 16.3 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) in 2021. So far this year, the U.S. gas market has focused more on domestic weather and supply and demand rather than geopolitics. U.S. gas prices have followed European futures only about 40% of the time so far in 2022, down from about two-thirds of the time in the fourth quarter of 2021. Front-month gas futures fell 6.8 cents, or 1.5%, to settle at $4.402 per million British thermal units (mmBtu), their lowest close since Feb. 15. U.S. oil prices, meanwhile, jumped over 8% earlier on Monday as Western allies imposed more sanctions on Russia. For the month, U.S. gas futures dropped almost 10% in February after rising 31% in January. Data provider Refinitiv said average gas output in the U.S. Lower 48 states fell from a record 97.3 bcfd in December to 94.0 bcfd in January and 93.3 bcfd so far in February, as cold weather froze oil and gas wells in several producing regions earlier in the new year. On a daily basis, however, gas production has climbed on most days since dropping to 86.3 bcfd during a winter storm on Feb. 4. Output on Monday was on track to hit 93.4 bcfd. With warmer weather coming, Refinitiv projected average U.S. gas demand, including exports, would drop from 122.7 bcfd this week to 109.5 bcfd next week. Those forecasts were lower than Refinitiv's outlook on Friday. The amount of gas flowing to U.S. LNG export plants averaged 12.4 bcfd so far in February, which would match January's monthly record high.

Russia-Ukraine Conflict Drives U.S. Export Demand Expectations, Fuels Natural Gas Futures - Natural gas prices bounced back Tuesday amid potential for even stronger demand for U.S. exports of liquefied natural gas (LNG) against the backdrop of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the specter of European supply disruptions as the war raged into a seventh day. The April Nymex gas futures contract settled at $4.573, up 17.1 cents day/day. The prompt month had shed 6.8 cents a day earlier. May advanced 17.8 cents to $4.598 on Tuesday. NGI’s Spot Gas National Avg. moved in the opposite direction, shedding 11.5 cents to $4.280 amid modest weather-driven demand. A day earlier, it dropped more than $1.500. European natural gas remained elevated Tuesday – as they have for days – – amid worries that Russia would scale back supplies to the continent. U.S. and European leaders have heaped a bevy of economic sanctions against Russia in the days since it launched the war.. Traders are concerned the Kremlin could respond by cutting off gas supplies. Europe depends on Russia for about one-third of its gas needs – and much of that fuel is delivered via pipelines that traverse Ukraine. Infrastructure damage resulting from Russian bombings and missile strikes on Ukraine could also interrupt gas flows, analysts at Rystad Energy said Tuesday. The increased potential for weaker flows of Russian gas amplifies already lofty calls for U.S. LNG, they said. “At this moment, a disruption in flows is more likely to stem from damage to infrastructure,” Rystad’s Kaushal Ramesh, senior analyst, said Tuesday. “However, as the situation is evolving rapidly, the risk of disruptions due to sanctions on energy remains a real possibility.”

U.S. natgas up 4% as Ukraine war causes global energy prices to soar (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures rose about 4% to near a four-week high on Wednesday, gaining some rare support from surging global oil and gas prices as the Russia-Ukraine conflict stokes energy supply concerns. Since the start of the year, the U.S. gas market has mostly shrugged off what was happening in Europe, focusing more on domestic weather and supply and demand. In fact, U.S. prices have moved in the opposite direction of European prices over the past couple of months, following European futures only about 40% of the time since the start of 2022. During the fourth quarter of 2021, U.S. futures followed European prices about two-thirds of the time. But it is hard to ignore the 50% increase in gas futures at the Title Transfer Facility (TTF) in the Netherlands earlier on Wednesday - the European benchmark is up more than 100% since Russia invaded Ukraine on Feb. 24 - especially since those higher overseas prices will keep demand for U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports strong for months to come. No matter how high global gas prices rise, however, the United States, the world's biggest gas producer, was already producing LNG near full capacity and cannot make much more of the super-cooled fuel. Front-month gas futures rose 18.9 cents, or 4.1%, to settle at $4.762 per million British thermal units (mmBtu), their highest close since Feb. 3. U.S. oil prices, meanwhile, jumped as much as 9% on Wednesday to their highest intraday trade since 2011 on concerns over supply disruptions from Russia, which is also one of the world's top oil producers. Data provider Refinitiv said average gas output in the U.S. Lower 48 states was on track to rise to 93.2 bcfd in March from 92.5 bcfd in February as more oil and gas wells return to service after freezing earlier in the year. That compares with a monthly record of 96.2 bcfd in December. With warmer weather coming, Refinitiv projected average U.S. gas demand, including exports, would drop from 122.2 bcfd this week to 108.1 bcfd next week. The amount of gas flowing to U.S. LNG export plants slid from a record 12.44 bcfd in January to 12.43 bcfd in February and 11.73 bcfd so far in March. Gas futures traded around $54 per mmBtu in Europe and $32 in Asia, compared with around $5 in the United States. But no matter how high global prices rise, the United States only has the capacity to turn about 12.5 bcfd of gas into LNG.

-U.S. natgas futures ease with drop in global oil/gas prices - (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures eased on Thursday as the U.S. market continued its three-day streak of following sharp moves in European gas and global oil prices with the Russia-Ukraine conflict stoking energy supply concerns. Gas futures at the Title Transfer Facility (TTF) in the Netherlands dropped as much as 22% on Thursday, after soaring over 100% since Russia invaded Ukraine on Feb. 24. Since the start of 2022, gas prices in the United States have moved in the opposite direction of Europe more than half the time. That is different than during the fourth quarter of 2021 when U.S. futures followed European prices about two-thirds of the time. But it has been hard for the U.S. market to ignore the massive gains in global oil and gas prices in recent days - especially since those higher gas prices will keep demand for U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports strong for months. Thursday's U.S. price decline came despite an expected bigger-than-usual storage withdrawal last week when colder-than-normal weather boosted heating demand. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said utilities pulled 139 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas from storage during the week ended Feb. 25. That was in line with the 138-bcf withdrawal analysts forecast in a Reuters poll and compares with a decline of 132 bcf in the same week last year and a five-year (2017-2021) average decline of 98 bcf. Front-month gas futures fell 4.0 cents, or 0.8%, to settle at $4.722 per million British thermal units (mmBtu). On Wednesday, the contract closed at its highest since Feb. 3. U.S. oil prices, meanwhile, soared to their highest since 2008 on Thursday on Russian supply concerns before turning negative on rumors that a nuclear deal with Iran was close, which would allow Iran to export more oil.

Russia-Ukraine War Spawns Supply Worries, Sends Natural Gas Futures Above $5.00 - Natural gas prices on Friday forged ahead for the third time in four days, buoyed by global supply fears imposed by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, surging European prices and the related prospect of a protracted period of record demand for U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG). The April Nymex gas futures contract spiked 29.4 cents day/day and settled at $5.016/MMBtu. May rose 30.0 cents to $5.036. NGI’s Spot Gas National Avg., however, shed 64.5 cents to $4.495 amid expectations for mild weekend weather and light near-term domestic demand. Russia shelled southern Ukraine late in the week, causing a fire at the largest nuclear power plant in Europe, according to the Associated Press. The blaze was contained but the assault amplified already heightened worries about Russia’s indiscriminate barrage on its eastern European neighbor. As the war extended into a second week, markets priced in the potential for direct Western sanctions against Russian oil and gas that could deplete supplies to Europe during a winter when the continent was already low on natural gas in storage. Dwindling supplies in Europe would intensify calls for U.S. exports of LNG and could, in turn, further drive up global prices. U.S. LNG feed gas volumes topped 13 Bcf Friday and hovered near record levels. The Title Transfer Facility gas contract – the European benchmark – hovered well above $50 over much of the past week, “reflecting the extreme uncertainty in the market as the offensive in Ukraine escalates,” said Rystad Energy’s Kaushal Ramesh. Transit volumes of Russian gas headed for Europe were steady Friday, but “traders are nervous over how long this can continue without disruption,” Ramesh, a senior analyst, said. Already, he noted, the United States “now requires dollar payments for Russian energy exports to be routed through third-country banks, complicating energy transactions.” Absent significant day/day changes in weather or domestic production – output was flat around 95 Bcf Friday — Bespoke Weather Services agreed “escalations in the Russia/Ukraine conflict” and the associated increase in European prices fueled gains for U.S. futures. “Expecting the market to move off the data right now is an exercise in futility, and may remain that way for some time,” Bespoke said. “This movement based on the situation in Europe is very likely to continue for a while, independent of anything shown in the data, which makes it a good time to simply stay neutral and see how the dust settles.” Forecasts Friday showed a “solid mid-month cold shot, relative to the time of year, but hints of rewarming late-month,” Bespoke said. Meanwhile, markets continued to digest the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) latest inventory data, released Thursday. EIA reported EIA reported a withdrawal of 139 Bcf natural gas from storage for the week ended Feb. 25, a result that was essentially in line with expectations. Lower 48 storage ended the week at 1,643 Bcf, 255 Bcf below the five-year average, according to EIA. War, however, looms large as a wildcard. “Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and subsequent economic sanctions have increased risks to the global economic outlook,” Moody’s Investors Service said in a report Friday. “The magnitude of the effects will depend on the length and severity of the crisis.” An escalated or prolonged conflict “would put Europe’s economic recovery at risk. The rest of the world will be affected by commodity price shocks at a time when inflation is already high,” the Moody’s team said.

Lawrenceville oil leak: State, federal agencies investigating pipeline spill --A leak from a major pipeline that serves Georgia and other southeastern states spilled hundreds of gallons of fuel into a residential neighborhood in Lawrenceville last week. While residents in the Grayland Hills subdivision had reported smelling an odor for weeks, the oil leak was not discovered until February 22, according to preliminary findings compiled by the federal government’s Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety Administration. The source of the spill was identified as the Products (SE) Pipe Line, which transports about 720,000 barrels per day of diesel and gasoline to metro areas along its route from Louisiana to Washington, D.C. The pipeline is operated by Kinder Morgan, the “largest independent transporter of petroleum products in North America,” according to the company’s website. A Kinder Morgan spokesperson said the company estimates the spill resulted in the release of around 420 gallons. Initial findings show that the fuel did not escape into a nearby creek. Kinder Morgan’s vice president of public affairs told the Lawrenceville City Council Monday that six families were evacuated. He said they have returned to their homes. The pipeline was shut off, but the company confirmed that it has since been repaired and restarted. The Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety Administration issued a corrective action order, requiring that Kinder Morgan operate the pipeline at reduced pressure, analyze the cause of the leak and submit a work plan for repairing the affected area. A spokesperson for the Georgia Environmental Protection Division confirmed that the agency is also investigating the incident and that remediation work is underway.

EOG CEO Touts Need to Expand Global Reach of US Natural Gas -Citing the United States’ “very vast supply of natural gas,” EOG Resources Inc. CEO Ezra Yacob said “it’s important that we get that gas offshore and into the global market” for geopolitical reasons and to support developing countries’ economic growth. Shell plc has projected a 90% increase in global liquefied natural gas (LNG) demand by 2040. Even before Russia invaded Ukraine, tightening gas supply options, demand for LNG from the United States was strong. Yacob said EOG’s mindset on natural gas globally is “it’s going to be…cost of supply. And we say that we want to be the low-cost producer, and that might sound like we’re talking about oil dominantly, but that goes for gas as well.”The company in February advanced its gas supply aspirations by striking a deal with top U.S. LNG exporter Cheniere Energy Inc., which has proposed expanding its Corpus Christi LNG export terminal in South Texas.EOG is banking on its position in the Dorado natural gas play, with an estimated 21 Tcf bounty, to help sustain growth in LNG exports from the U.S. Gulf Coast. The company has reported a sub-$2.50/Mcf breakeven cost for developing Dorado’s gas reserves in the Austin Chalk and Eagle Ford Shale. “We think Dorado competes in North America, is basically the lowest cost of supply, especially because of its geographic location, close to so many marketing centers, including the Gulf Coast.” Illustrating the growing global reach of U.S. natural gas, the maiden LNG cargo from Venture Global LNG Inc.’s Calcasieu Pass recently departed the Louisiana export facility. Moreover, Cheniere recently added a sixth liquefaction train at its Sabine Pass export facility. EOG’s 2022 capital spending plan, ranging from $4.3-$4.7 billion, would return the company’s oil production back to pre-pandemic levels and maintain flat well costs, management said. The company plans to complete 570 net wells in 2022, up from 519 last year. EOG said the program would include another 20 net wells in Dorado. Helms noted “most of the good equipment is already under employment today. And then bringing in new fleets, both on the drilling side and on the frac side, is also challenged from the standpoint of attracting labor to the market.” EOG’s total average wellhead volumes for 4Q2021 were 863,100 boe/d, up 8% year/year from 801,500 boe/d and up 2% quarter/quarter from 844,400 boe/d. Broken down by segment, EOG’s natural gas production during 4Q2021 averaged 1.534 Bcf/d, up quarter/quarter from 1.422 Bcf/d and year/year from 1.292 Bcf/d. Its full-year 2021 average gas output was 1.436 Bcf/d, up from 1.252 Bcf/d in 2020. Natural gas liquids (NGL) output for 4Q2021 averaged 156,900 b/d, up year/year from 141,400 b/d but down quarter/quarter from 157,900 b/d. On an annual basis, it produced 6% more NGL, to 144,500 b/d in 2021 from 136,000 b/d in 2020. EOG’s crude oil and condensate production for 4Q2021 averaged 450,600 b/d, compared to 449,500 b/d for 3Q2021 and 444,800 b/d for 4Q2020. Year/year, average crude and condensate output increased nearly 9% from 409,200 b/d in 2020 to 445,000 b/d in 2021.

Pipeline spill in Lawrenceville — now being cleaned up — first went undetected – WABE - Cleanup is ongoing at the site of an oil pipeline spill in Lawrenceville that went undetected for weeks before being found. According to company Kinder Morgan, its pipeline was shut down as of last week, but it is now repaired and back in service. The company estimates 420 gallons spilled near the Grayland Hills subdivision, though experts caution that number could change. Residents had reported natural gas smells to local authorities for several weeks, according to a corrective action order from the U.S. Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Association, or PHMSA. On Feb. 22, someone found oil, and the Gwinnett County Fire Department confirmed that it was diesel in a storm drain coming from the pipeline. According to PHMSA, five households were evacuated because of the around-the-clock excavation and heavy equipment use needed to respond to the spill. Sponsor Kinder Morgan had not gotten any alarms or other indications about the leak. That’s not unusual, according to Bill Caram, executive director of the advocacy group Pipeline Safety Trust. He said while there are federal regulations requiring pipeline operators to have leak detection systems, the rules don’t set standards for how strong or sensitive those systems need to be, and it can be tough to pinpoint a leak. “In an ideal world, Kinder Morgan would have a really robust leak detection system on this pipeline. And they would know very quickly when there was product leaking out of their pipeline, and they could respond to it,” he said. “In this case, their leak detection system never detected anything. And they had to rely on a resident spotting it.” The pipeline, which is owned by Kinder Morgan subsidiary Products (SE) Pipe Line Corporation, carries petroleum products from Louisiana to Virginia, delivering jet fuel, gas, diesel and biodiesel to Southern states along the way. The pipeline dates back to 1968. PHMSA said it issued notices in the late-1980s about the potential for failures of pipes of that type that were built before 1970. It also cited the San Bruno, California, natural gas pipeline explosion that killed eight people in 2010 to emphasize the need to monitor older pipes. According to PHMSA, Products (SE) Pipe Line Corporation had previously found two dents in the pipe near where the spill happened, but the company said they were not “actionable.” The last assessment of the pipe was in 2020. Caram said nationwide, there’s a “reportable incident” on a natural gas or hazardous liquids pipeline about once a day, but pipelines are still safer than other options. “When you look at the different ways to transport hydrocarbons, whether it be by rail or by truck or by pipeline, despite that incredible incident rate, pipelines are still by far the safest way to move hydrocarbons,”

Biden administration won’t appeal judge’s ruling revoking Gulf of Mexico drilling leases - The Biden administration will not challenge a federal court ruling that it did not sufficiently consider climate change when it auctioned off 1.7 million acres in the Gulf of Mexico last year, accepting a decision that invalidated the largest offshore oil and gas lease sale in the nation’s history.In a document filed Monday in the U.S. Court of Appeals for the D.C. Circuit, lawyers for the government said they would not appeal the district court’s ruling canceling the lease sale. But they left open the possibility that the leases could still be issued if the decision to throw out the sale’s results is ultimately overturned. The American Petroleum Institute, the oil and gas industry’s largest trade group, has challenged the ruling.The government’s position is not especially surprising. The Interior Department’s environmental analysis justifying the auction was completed under the Trump administration and Biden officials actually did not want to hold the lease sale. Shortly after taking office, President Biden suspended new oil and gas drilling on lands and waters owned by the federal government. But after a Louisiana judge struck down the moratorium last summer, administration officials said they were forced to go through with the sale in November. Although the administration offered up to 80 million acres in the Gulf of Mexico for drilling leases, the Interior Department ultimately sold a fraction of that amount. The sale netted nearly $192 million and ranked as the most profitable offshore auction since March 2019.The federal judge’s ruling invalidating the results of the sale means Interior has to redo its environmental analysis so that it fully accounts for the effects of greenhouse gas emissions associated with future oil and gas drilling in the Gulf of Mexico. Then the administration must decide whether to hold a new auction. However, in its filing, the administration argued that it has run out of time to complete these steps. The government’s five-year offshore drilling plan expires at the end of June, and it’s unlikely that a replacement will be in place by then.

US Announces Emergency Release of 30 Mln Barrels of Crude Oil From Strategic Petroleum Reserve - US President Joe Biden has authorized Washington to release 30 million barrels of oil from strategic petroleum reserves in an effort to stabilize global energy markets disrupted by the military attacks in Ukraine, US Secretary of Energy Jennifer Granholm said in a Tuesday evening statement.The move follows a joint International Energy Agency (IEA) meeting in which the US and 30 other member-nations agreed on the release of 60 million barrels of oil from the nation's emergency reserves. Sanctions-related disruptions to Russian oil trade have created a market "under threat" that demands global attention, the group says."Today, I chaired an emergency ministerial meeting of the [IEA] ... where the United States and 30 other member countries, supported by the European Commission, agreed to collectively release an initial 60 million barrels of oil from strategic petroleum reserves,"Granholm wrote. "This decision reflects our common commitment to address significant market and supply disruptions related to President Putin’s war on Ukraine."The IEA reportedly considered releasing up to 70 million barrels of oil during the emergency discussions."In line with this decision, President Biden authorized me to make an initial commitment on behalf of the United States of 30 million barrels of oil to be released from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve," Granholm said.Washington is committed to blocking Putin from "attempts to weaponize energy supplies" and will continue the advancement of "ongoing efforts to accelerate Europe's diversification of energy supplies away from" Moscow, the US energy secretary noted. The US believes modern-day investment in clean energy is useful in reducing domestic and international dependence on Russian oil and gas, particularly as a means to safeguard energy supplies from "volatile prices and markets."Granholm noted that the US backs "ambitious" clean energy goals, such as the pursuit of a net-zero emissions economy by 2050—a timeline that has been panned as insufficient by many climate experts. At the same time, critics of the Biden administration have argued that Washington's progressive climate change policies have contributed to a decline in US energy production and the present energy situation. The US announcement comes shortly after the Paris-based International Energy Agency (IEA) approved the release via an emergency meeting, amounting to the fourth instance the group has moved to tap into its emergency stockpiles. This particular release comes second to the IEA's release amid the first Gulf War in 1991. A hike in oil prices, as well as a commercial inventory drought rivaling the lows of 2014, comes as the US, Japan, and European IEA countries seek to send a "unified message" to oil producer Russia regarding what they refer to as its "special operation" in Ukraine.

U.S. Oil Industry Uses Ukraine Invasion to Push for More Drilling at Home - Russian troops hadn’t yet begun their full-on assault on Ukraine late Wednesday when the rallying cry came from the American oil and gas industry. “As crisis looms in Ukraine, U.S. energy leadership is more important than ever,” the American Petroleum Institute, the powerful industry lobby group, wrote on Twitter with a photo that read: “Let’s unleash American energy. Protect our energy security.” The crux of the industry’s argument is that any effort to restrain drilling in America makes a world already reeling from high oil prices more dependent on oil and gas from Russia, a rival and belligerent fossil fuel superpower. The industry’s demands have focused on reversing steps the Biden administration has taken to start reining in the production of fossil fuels, the main driver of climate change. The administration should release permits for drilling on federal lands, the lobby urged, and push ahead with leasing more tracts for offshore oil and development. The A.P.I., which condemned the invasion, also The crisis “has the given industry a great talking point,” But the industry misses the point that “we’re overly dependent on fossil fuels,” she said. For one, experts are in agreement that nations around the world need to stop approving new coal-fired power plants, and new oil and gas fields, to avert the most catastrophic effects of climate change, Professor Hipple said. “Does anyone want to continue to be dependent on oligarchs in Russia, Saudi Arabia, Canada’s oil, a handful of private companies in the United States? To my mind, that’s not resilient,” she said. Environmental groups criticized the industry’s logic. “It’s pretty rich for the oil and gas industry to talk about how reliable fossil fuels are when any big storm that happens, any time a war pops up, their reliability is thrown into question,” said Nathaniel Stinnett, founder and executive director of the Environmental Voter Project, a group that mobilizes voters in elections. “Wars aren’t fought over solar energy. You don’t see these huge price spikes in clean energy,” he said. Some Republican lawmakers began to echo the oil and gas industry’s demands. “You need to do much more. You need to get your boot off the neck of American energy producers,” Dan Sullivan, a Republican senator from Alaska said in a video response. The administration, he said, should revive the Keystone XL pipeline, for example — the embattled project that would have carried petroleum from Canadian tar sands to Nebraska — and resume issuing drilling leases in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge, one of the largest tracts of untouched wilderness in the United States.

U.S. Oil Output Flat; OPEC-Plus Sticks to Modest Production Plan Even as Ukraine War Rages - Despite solid demand and a raging war in Ukraine that could disrupt global supply, U.S. crude producers held the line on output in the final week of February – as they did throughout the month, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) said Wednesday. Production last week was flat with the three prior weeks at 11.6 million b/d, EIA’s latest Weekly Petroleum Status Report showed. This reflected in large measure publicly traded producers’ collective decision to hold steady amid investors’ calls to divert investments away from fossil fuels.On the same day, members of OPEC and an allied group of producers led by Russia – OPEC-plus – agreed to further boost output by a modest 400,000 b/d in March. This would continue a targeted rate of monthly supply increases launched in August 2021 to gradually unwind production cuts of nearly 10 million b/d made in April 2020 amid the pandemic.The cartel’s decision comes amid Russia’s escalating war with Ukraine. With bombing and combat intensifying across Ukraine and sanctions mounting against Russia, analysts said oil supplies, already struggling to catch up with demand, could shrink. The concern is that Russia, a major producer, may lose its ability to export much of its crude as western countries pile punishments atop the Kremlin-controlled Russian economy and financial system.Brent crude, the international oil price benchmark, hovered near $110/bbl on Wednesday – up nearly 40% from the start of 2022.“Investors, traders and politicians alike are scrambling to address the worsening Russia-Ukraine standoff,” said Rystad Energy’s Louise Dickson, senior analyst. “The current realistic scenario is that a large portion of Russian crude oil, as well as refined oil products, will no longer be palpable to the market and create a supply deficit for the duration of the armed conflict.”Sen. Edward Markey, a Democrat of Massachusetts, this week introduced legislation to ban imports of Russian crude, noting that the United States last year imported 198 million b/d of crude and 354 million b/d of unfinished oils from Russia – about 8% of total U.S. imports.Against that backdrop, ClearView Energy Partners LLC analysts said that, absent a surge in either U.S. or OPEC-plus output, supply challenges could prove lasting.“We see a risk horizon of enduringly short supply and potentially long conflict,” the ClearView analysts said. “…Russia’s invasion of Ukraine demolished decades of diplomatic architecture in a matter of days. The global disorder left in its wake could persist for years.”

White House Quietly Calls On US Oil Companies To Increase Production - In a move that likely angered his environment-conscious base, the White House has issued a muted request for U.S. oil companies to increase crude oil production in the wake of high crude oil and gasoline prices. Though words are different than deeds—and President Joe Biden’s deeds have been decisively anti-fossil fuel expansion—a White House official told U.S. oil companies on Tuesday that they could increase production if they want. “Prices are quite high, the price signal is strong. If folks want to produce more, they can and they should,” White House National Economic Council Deputy Director Bharat Ramamurti said in an interview today. While the words fell short of an official request to U.S. oil companies to increase production, it is decidedly different from ignoring U.S. oil companies’ production plans altogether while asking OPEC+ to do the heavy lifting when it comes to oil production—to no avail, no less. Ramamurti also dispelled the notion that the U.S. Administration was somehow curtailing crude oil production. But U.S. oil companies have long held that while the Administration hasn’t directly restricted U.S. output, the energy policies flowing out of the White House have put a damper not only on the attitude involving crude oil production but has made it far more difficult for oil companies to ramp up. The White House has received a lot of pushback in recent days for not tapping what many see as at least a partial solution to the headache that is high oil prices—U.S. shale. Oil companies such as Devon Energy have said they have been perplexed that the White House has not called on them directly to ramp up oil production. And Ramamurti’s comments today still do not rise to the level of asking U.S. producers for more oil.

U.S. shale growth faces headwinds on costs and equipment, EOG says— Inflation and brisk competition for the most-sophisticated drilling gear will hinder U.S. oil-supply expansion this year, according to shale giant EOG Resources Inc. “Inflationary and supply chain pressures” will limit production growth to the lower end of estimates, Chief Executive Officer Ezra Yacob said during a conference call with analysts on Friday. Major forecasters recently boosted estimates for 2022 U.S. oil-production growth to 750,000 and 1 million barrels per day. Most of the best drilling rigs and fracking fleets already are under lease, Chief Operating Officer Billy Helms said: “There are not a lot of new pieces of equipment that can come into the market.” EOG, the second-largest shale-focused explorer, plans to cap output growth to 3.6% this year, following similar pledges from Pioneer Natural Resources Co. and Continental Resources Inc. So-called independent drillers like EOG comprise about 55% of onshore production in the continental U.S., according to IHS Markit Ltd.

Laredo Ups Drilling Count by 50% in West Texas Permian Acreage - Laredo Petroleum Inc. has identified 50% more drilling locations in the Permian Basin acreage it acquired last year than initially envisioned. “These deals initially added about 250 locations, but importantly recent drilling success has added an additional 125 locations across areas where we ascribed no value at the time of the acquisition,” said CEO Jason Pigott in a February call with analysts to review fourth quarter and full-year 2021 earnings. Laredo expanded its Texas footprint in 2021 by acquiring about 41,000 net acres in Howard and western Glasscock counties. The new acreage holds about 250 “high-margin, oil-weighted” Permian locations, management said. Appraisal drilling has since yielded about 35 Middle Spraberry and about 90 Wolfcamp D formation locations. “We now have eight years of oil-weighted high-margin inventory in Howard and western Glasscock counties,” said Pigott. The exploration and production (E&P) firm “grew proved oil reserves by nearly 80% and oil now makes up nearly 40%” of its total reserves, according to Pigott. COO Karen Chandler said the eight-year inventory projection assumes a $55/bbl or less oil price, the current pace of activity and existing development spacing. The company is “currently operating three drilling rigs and two completion crews.” One rig and one crew are set to be released by the end of March. Afterward, “we will maintain two rigs and one crew through the end of 2022, Chandler said. She cited inflationary service cost increases that are being felt across the industry. “From fourth quarter actuals, we have factored in approximately 15% inflation into our 2022 capital budget and have locked in most of our pricing for services through the first half of the year,” including costs for hydraulic fracturing services, sand and casing, she said. Chandler added the E&P is “working to extend our service contracts into the second half of 2022 and optimize our inventory management” to provide the full-year capital budget a buffer against additional inflationary pressures. For fiscal year (FY) 2022, Laredo anticipates about $520 million in capital spending, with 80% for drilling, completions and exploration. The FY2022 guidance assumes about 2.3 operated rigs, 1.2 operated fracture crews, 65 wells spud, 55 completions and 55 turn-in-lines. It also projects total production of 82,000-86,000 boe/d (49% oil cut).

U.S. Oil Rig Count Falls Despite Major Rally In Crude Prices --The number of total active drilling rigs in the United States stayed the same this week—bringing the 18 weeks of increases to a close as pressure mounts on the Biden Administration to do more to increase crude oil production in the United States in an effort to relieve high gasoline prices. The total rig count remains at 650, as the world watches for any signs of increased output from the United States that would allow weaning off from Russian oil—at least in part. Baker Hughes reported this week that the total active rig figure—oil, gas, and miscellaneous—is 247 rigs higher than the rig count this time in 2021. Oil-directed rigs, however, fell by 3 to 519, while gas-directed rigs were up by 3 to 130. Miscellaneous rigs stayed the same. While drilling activity has picked up in the United States, there is a significant lag in the corollary that is U.S. oil production. U.S. weekly production of crude oil stayed the same for the fourth week in a row at 11.6 million bpd, according to the latest Energy Information Administration for the week ending February 25. The rig count in the Permian Basin rose by 1 this week, bringing the total rig count in the Permian basin to 310. Primary Vision's Frac Spread Count, which tracks the number of completion crews finishing off previously drilled wells, shows that completion crews rose also, for the eighth week in a row in the week ending February 25. Completion crews rose by 7 to 290. At 11:40 a.m. EST, oil prices were trending up on the day after Ukrainian reports surfaced stating that Russia had shelled Europe's largest nuclear power complex. WTI was trading at $112 per barrel—up 4.02% on the day and up more than $20 on the week as the oil markets remain concerned about crude supplies after Russia invaded Ukraine. The Brent benchmark traded at $114.40 per barrel at that time, up 3.55% on the day and up $17.40 per barrel on the week

Texas, 14 other states sue EPA over ‘war against Texas oil and gas’ --Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton is leading a 14-state coalition challenging the Biden Administration’s Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) regulations on vehicle emissions. Paxton says President Joe Biden’s ‘bureaucratic decrees’ micromanage cars’ and trucks’ greenhouse gas emissions, which exceeds the EPA’s authority and violates the Constitution’s separation-of-powers principles. “At a time when American gas prices are skyrocketing at the pump, and the Russia-Ukraine conflict shows again the absolute need for energy independence, Biden chooses to go to war against fossil fuels,” Paxton said. “These severe new rules proposed by the EPA are not only unnecessary, but they will create a deliberate disadvantage to Texas and all states who are involved in the production of oil and gas. I will not allow this federal overreach to wreak havoc on our economy or the livelihoods of hard-working Texans.” The new rule seeks to promote the Biden Administration’s radical climate change agenda by promoting electric vehicle usage over other, superior means of transportation that use abundant fossil fuels. If left in place, the regulations will impose major economic harms on Texas by stressing its electric grid and decreasing the need for gasoline by billions of gallons, effectively destroying Texas’s robust energy industry. Other states that would have benefitted from increased production in renewable fuels will also be negatively impacted.

Colorado oil and gas regulators approve ‘strongest in the nation’ financial rules - Colorado regulators on Tuesday approved a sweeping set of new financial requirements for oil and gas companies that operate within the state, completing the last major rule change mandated by a landmark drilling reform law passed by Democrats in the General Assembly three years ago.The five-member Colorado Oil and Gas Conservation Commission voted unanimously to adopt the new rules on financial assurance, also known as bonding. When they take effect in April, the changes willsignificantly increase the amounts of the bonds that oil and gas producers must provide to the state to cover potential cleanup costs, and new fees will raise millions of dollars to fund the plugging of wells that are abandoned, or “orphaned,” typically as a result of bankruptcy. In a press release, COGCC officials called the new rules “the strongest in the nation.” Commissioner John Messner, a former Gunnison County commissioner, said prior to Tuesday’s vote that the rules represent a “paradigm shift.”“I think they fundamentally change how financial assurance for oil and gas activities in the state of Colorado are addressed,” Messner said. “They were an outcome of over a year’s worth of collaboration and input from a really diverse group of individuals and stakeholders.”The financial assurance changes were the last major rulemaking required by Senate Bill 19-181, a law that overhauled the COGCC itself and tasked it with reorienting state oil and gas policy to be more protective of health, safety and the environment. The commission is still set to consider additional rulemakings on worker safety certifications and permit application fees at a later date.“These innovative rules will allow the COGCC to continue its oil and gas regulatory duties in a meaningful, impactful and protective manner for all of Colorado,” agency director Julie Murphy said in a statement. “Staff will begin the work to integrate these new rules into daily operations.”

CenterPoint Energy to replace pipeline underneath Minnesota River - CenterPoint Energy will begin work this spring to replace aging natural gas pipelines underneath the Minnesota River in Burnsville. Over 10,000 feet of pipeline will be replaced under the river, lake and wetlands spanning between Burnsville and Bloomington, according to project plans approved by city officials last month. Thomas Haider, a senior engineer with CenterPoint Energy, said the project connects to a broader pipeline replacement plan nearing completion in the Twin Cities metropolitan area. "We’ve been working over the last 10 years to upgrade all of the primary lines that serve our natural gas system between Fridley and Burnsville," Haider told the Burnsville Planning Commission at a meeting last month. Approximately 10,600 feet of pipeline will be replaced along two existing pipelines in Burnsville, according to project documents. The existing "Lyndale" pipeline marked for replacement was installed by Northern Natural Gas Company in 1953 — roughly a decade before Burnsville became a city. CenterPoint Energy plans to replace approximately 3,200 feet of the Lyndale pipeline located on, and surrounding, the company's property in Burnsville, where the Dakota Station is located. Approximately 7,400 feet of pipeline will be replaced on the Nicollet line, which crosses underneath Black Dog Lake and the Minnesota River before connecting to Bloomington. A special technique called horizontal directional drilling will be used to install new, 24-inch-diameter steel pipeline underneath the lake and river, according to Haider. The same method will also be used to install 920 feet of new pipeline underneath a segment of the Union Pacific railroad tracks in Burnsville. Existing pipelines replaced by new pipeline will be removed, according to project documents. Segments of abandoned pipeline will be filled with grout or a similar material and capped, in accordance with state and federal law.

Land Board stops challenging one part of oil, gas royalty case; state had pursued $69M owed before 2013 - North Dakota officials will not challenge a new law surrounding oil and gas royalties, ending their pursuit of $69 million the state could have sought for energy development prior to August 2013.The state is still pursuing an appeal with the North Dakota Supreme Court on other issues surrounding royalties for the development of state-owned minerals. The Board of University and School Lands, better known as the Land Board, voted unanimously last week to continue with the litigation but halt one aspect -- its challenge to the constitutionality of a new North Dakota law that prohibits the state from collecting unpaid royalties for oil and gas production that occurred before Aug. 1, 2013.At issue are deductions oil and gas companies removed from royalties to account for transportation and processing costs. The Land Board has for several years sought to collect those deductions following a favorable Supreme Court ruling in 2019 in a case involving oil producer Newfield Exploration Co. The case has implications for numerous state oil and gas leases with other companies.The board's attempts to collect the money have faced pushback from the oil and gas industry, which viewed the state's initial efforts as punitive. The industry backedHouse Bill 1080 last year, which passed into law and capped the length of time for which the state in the future could seek to collect unpaid royalties at seven years. It also imposed the cutoff date in August 2013 that would apply to the money the state is seeking to recover from dozens of companies.

Oil driller invests in carbon-capture pipeline for Midwest (AP) — North Dakota’s biggest oil driller said Wednesday it will commit $250 million to help fund a proposed pipeline that would gather carbon dioxide produced by ethanol plants across the Midwest and pump it thousands of feet underground for permanent storage. Continental Resources, headed by billionaire oil tycoon Harold Hamm, discussed the investment into Summit Carbon Solutions’ $4.5 billion pipeline at an ethanol plant in Casselton, in eastern North Dakota. The plant is one of 31 ethanol facilities across Iowa, Minnesota, Nebraska and the Dakotas, where emissions would be captured and piped to western North Dakota and buried deep underground.The Summit project is one of at least two major CO2 pipelines planned for the Midwest. Navigator CO2 Ventures is planning a pipeline that will stretch over 1,200 miles (1,931 kilometers) through Iowa, South Dakota, Nebraska, Minnesota and Illinois.Similar CO2 pipeline plans are being considered elsewhere after the federal government increased tax credits, by 2026, to $50 for every metric ton of carbon dioxide a company sequesters. Ethanol producers are aiming to make the fuel more marketable along the West Coast and especially California which requires distributors in that state buy only ethanol with a low carbon emissions impact; companies that produce such ethanol can get a higher price.

Why Did California Regulators Choose a Firm with Ties to Chevron to Study Irrigating Crops with Oil Wastewater? - In 2015, a California water board suddenly found itself under a microscope for allowing farmers to irrigate their crops with oil field wastewater, a practice it had condoned for decades.The California Council on Science and Technology had just revealed that the testing and treatment of hazardous chemicals in oil field wastewater used for irrigation was inadequate, and legislators were demanding increased oversight. They feared that oil companies’ wastewater was threatening groundwater needed for drinking water and growing crops.Faced with heightened scrutiny, the California’s Central Valley Regional Water Quality Control Board raced to secure a consultant to study the controversial practice and soon settled on GSI Environmental as both qualified and unbiased.Last fall, armed with GSI’s completed studies, the board tried to put concerns about the practice to rest, assuring the public that the firm had found “no identifiable increased health risks” from irrigating crops with water recycled from oil wells. But the board should never have chosen GSI, scientists, public interest activists and former regulators said in interviews, citing the firm’s close ties to the oil industry—ties so close that GSI once listed on its website Chevron, ExxonMobil and Occidental Petroleum as clients “we answer to.” Chevron is the largest producer of oil field wastewater for irrigation in California. The company saves millions of dollars in disposal costs by selling the “produced water” to a local water district, which in turn sells it to farmers in Kern County to irrigate their water-intensive almonds, pistachios and citrus. When the water board retained GSI, the firm had already earned millions of dollars helping Chevron defend its interests in a single court case. In addition to Chevron, GSI had also helped other corporate polluters defend themselves against claims of environmental and health harms by providing litigation support and expert witness testimony, documents filed in state and federal courts show. Beyond its legal defense services, GSI regularly takes research funds from the chemical and fossil fuel industries, and collaborates on research with scientists who work for these industries, a review of the scientific literature shows.And it has published commentaries that cast doubt on evidence that oil and gas extraction or chemical industry products cause harm, without disclosing its litigation support for these industries or its industry funding as a conflict of interest.

Lawsuits over Orange County oil spill escalate - Two cargo ships that allegedly dragged an oil pipeline with their anchors during a winter storm should be held liable for a disastrous October oil spill that sent thousands of gallons of crude into the waters off Orange County, the operator of the ruptured pipeline said in a lawsuit filed Monday.In a 35-page complaint filed in federal court, Houston-based Amplify Energy Corp. accused two shipping companies and their subsidiaries — based in Switzerland, Panama, Liberia and Greece — of improperly allowing their cargo ships to drop anchor near the pipeline and of failing to notify authorities after the damage occurred.Without the presence of the cargo ship anchors, “the pipeline would not have been displaced or damaged and thus would not have failed,” Amplify said in the complaint.The Marine Exchange of Southern California, which monitors and directs traffic inthe busy San Pedro Bay, was also named as a defendant in the lawsuit. The nonprofit should have been aware of the anchor drags and should have notified the company, the lawsuit said.The lawsuit also names as defendants the captains and crews of the two cargo ships, the MSC Danit and the Cosco Beijing.The Coast Guard has designated both ships parties of interest in the federal investigation of the spill, which sent at least 25,000 gallons of crude gushing into the waters off Orange County. An anchor striking and dragging the pipeline could have made the conduit more vulnerable to other damage or to environmental stressors, the Coast Guard said.Amplify’s lawsuit said that, if company employees had been aware of the damage, they would have deployed a remotely operated vehicle to inspect the pipeline, “detected its dislocation and the damage done to it, suspended operations immediately, and undertaken remedial measures that would have prevented the discharge of oil.”“We would have immediately assessed the situation and made any necessary repairs,” company spokeswoman Amy Conway said in a statement Monday.

B.C. government adds red tape to Trans Mountain - The Trans Mountain pipeline expansion, which is on track to cost nearly $9 billion more than it was last estimated to cost, may now face yet more red tape that could add more costs and delays. This week, George Heyman, the B.C. minister of Environment and Climate Change Strategy, and Bruce Ralston, minister of Energy, Mines and Low Carbon Innovation, announced changes to the provincial environmental certificate -- originally issued in 2017 and amended in 2019 -- for the Trans Mountain pipeline expansion project. Whether the changes will have a material impact on the project's cost or timelines is unclear. The changes to the certificate are the result of a federal Court of Appeal decision in 2018, and B.C. Court of Appeal decision in 2019. The project had received federal approval, but was halted when, in 2018, the federal Court of Appeal ruled the National Energy Board (NEB) had failed to properly assess potential impacts on the marine environment from the increased oil tanker traffic that would result from the expansion. The NEB was forced to go back to the drawing board and do an assessment of the potential impacts of increased marine traffic and risks of an oil spill. Once that was done, the federal government again gave the project the green light. The B.C. government also issued an amended provincial environmental certificate in 2019. But in 2019, after the Squamish First Nation and the City of Vancouver appealed a previous decision by the BC Supreme Court, the BC Court of Appeal agreed that, since the original NEB approval had been flawed, the province’s own environmental certificate needed to be reviewed. The B.C. government then began a review in May 2020, and only this week -- more than a year and a half later -- issued an update to its environmental certificate. As part of the environmental certificate reconsideration, the B.C. government invited groups that were opposed to the project to have input, including the Squamish and Tsleil-Waututh First Nations and City of Vancouver. As a result of the reconsideration process, the B.C. government has made changes to the environmental certificate for the Trans Mountain project. They include a requirement that Trans Mountain provide research updates every five years on the behaviour of bitumen in the marine environment. Other conditions include:

• requiring Trans Mountain to develop a shoreline baseline data report that consolidates data at hypothetical incident locations along the oil tanker shipping route;
• identifying exposure pathways in the event of a marine spill;
• identifying roles and responsibilities of local, provincial and federal authorities in the event of a marine spill;
• consulting with First Nations, local governments and relevant agencies to develop a report that will provide information to the federal government and its agencies for plans to address potential human health impacts from spills; and
• adding the Snuneymuxw First Nation to a list of impacted aboriginal groups

Insurance giant AIG joins movement against financing Arctic oil development - New Arctic energy explorative activities will no longer be supported by the insurance giant American International Group, Inc. AIG is one of the worlds largest insurance companies, and will no longer support services or investments for new coal-fired plants, coal mines, or drilling in the Arctic as AIG CEO Peter Zaffino stated in a press release that “AIG is focused on the realities of climate change. The data about climate change is unambiguous and we believe that AIG can be a catalyst for positive change.” The decision comes from AIG in an effort to achieve net zero greenhouse emissions by 2050 or sooner in both their underwriting and investment portfolios as well as within their own operations. The decision is getting mixed reviews here in Alaska. The Wilderness Society, a group that lobbied for financial institutions to make these changes, says oil development commonly threatens Indigenous communities and destroys sacred land. They also stated that the Arctic is ground zero for climate change. Temperatures in the Arctic Circle are rising at four times the rate as the rest of the planet. Melting permafrost is threatening villages and food sources are disappearing. Organizational Lead of the Alaska Wilderness Society Karlin Itchoak feels that AIG’s decision will have positive benefits for the environment. “While everyone recognizes the need for jobs and a healthy economy, we must protect our climate and respect the human rights of Indigenous people as we transition to an economy that isn’t dependent on fossil fuels,” Itchoak said. CEO of The Alaska Support Industry Alliance Rebecca Logan says that AIG’s decision is nothing new, but still disappointing. Their organization supports oil exploration, but focuses on education and how to do it safely. Logan said she feels that these decisions are politically based and prevent responsible resource development. “Oil, gas, and critical strategic minerals are going to be developed somewhere in the world,” Logan said. “We should all be trying to do them here because nobody does it better than we do and more responsibly. So it just makes a broader group that we have to get that message out to.”

‘Major Step Forward’: AIG to Stop Insuring Coal, Tar Sands, and Arctic Drilling --Climate justice advocates celebrated Tuesday in response to insurance giant AIG’s announcementthat it will no longer invest in or provide insurance coverage for any new Arctic drilling activities nor will it finance or underwrite the construction of any new coal-fired power plants, thermal coal mines, or tar sands projects, effective immediately.AIG also said that it will immediately stop investing in or underwriting “new operation insurance risks” of coal-fired power plants, thermal coal mines, or tar sands projects owned by corporations that derive 30% or more of their revenue from those industries or generate over 30% of their energy production from coal.By January 1, 2030 at the latest, AIG said that it will phase out the underwriting of all “existing operation insurance risks” and cease new investments in those clients that still depend on coal or tar sands for 30% or more of their revenue, or coal for over 30% of their electricity generation.The insurance giant’s moves come in the wake of years of pressure from several environmental groups, some of which offered cautious praise following AIG’s announcement.“As one of the last major insurers without restrictions on coal insurance, AIG’s new commitments to reduce underwriting for coal, tar sands oil, and Arctic oil and gas are a major step forward for people and the planet,” Hannah Saggau, insurance campaigner with Public Citizen, said in a statement. “AIG has vaulted itself from a laggard in the industry to a leader in the U.S., and we look forward to working with it to meet and improve on these commitments.”

Republicans are embracing carbon border fees to counter Putin - Following Russia's invasion of Ukraine, Republicans are increasingly voicing support for carbon border fees to weaken Moscow's influence over Europe's energy security.It's a notable shift on climate policy for Republicans, who in recent years have been mostly silent on carbon border fees, which would slap a tax on imports from countries that aren't taking aggressive steps to cut planet-warming emissions.“As a longtime observer of how climate policy and politics evolve on the right, I do see a shift,” Heather Reams, president of Citizens for Responsible Energy Solutions, a right-leaning environmental advocacy group, told The Climate 202. Joint E.U.-U.S. carbon border fees, also known as border carbon adjustments, would levy a tax on polluting goods such as aluminum and cement from countries like Russia and China. They could eventually be broadened to affect oil, gas and coal imports.In theory, the fees would incentivize Europe to import lower-carbon goods made in the United States with higher environmental standards, including U.S. liquefied natural gas, which proponents say is much cleaner than Russian gas.Ultimately, backers say this would undermine Russian PresidentVladimir Putin's power to coerce Europe, which currently relies on Moscow for nearly 40 percent of its gas supplies, amid the unfolding Ukraine crisis.In December, when the possibility of Russian aggression against Ukraine loomed, Sen. Kevin Cramer (R-N.D.) wrote an opinion piece in Foreign Policy with Donald Trump's national security adviser,H.R. McMaster, laying out the case for carbon border fees. Cramer and McMaster noted that the European Commission has already outlined plans to impose a carbon tax starting in 2026 on polluting imports. They added that Igor Sechin, chief of the oil giantRosneft and a close Putin ally, has reportedly told the Kremlinthat carbon border taxes could inflict far greater damage to Russia's economy than sanctions.In an interview with The Climate 202, Cramer said he's trying to convince his conservative base that carbon border fees are consistent with longtime GOP advocacy for “energy independence” and an “America First” approach.“People expect us or want us to deal with climate, but it's not a natural thing for conservative Republicans to talk about,”Cramer said. “Here is an ‘America First’ solution that reduces emissions in a realistic way and has the additional advantage of freezing out Vladimir Putin.”

U.S., other world powers to tap strategic oil reserves in bid to ease gasoline prices - The United States and other world powers have agreed to release 60 million barrels of oil from their strategic reserves, a move intended to reduce gasoline prices that have climbed rapidly in recent weeks, according to the International Energy Agency.The energy agency’s governing board released a statement Tuesday attributing the decision to tight global oil markets that have become further strained by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Although the sanctions that countries have imposed on Russia in recent days do not directly target its oil and gas sectors, continued fighting is expected to disrupt supply routes through Ukraine and the Black Sea, shrinking crude oil stocks dramatically.With crude oil prices climbing to well over $100 a barrel — and with some industry analysts predicting prices could hit $130 — the energy agency said its intent is to “send a unified and strong message to global oil markets that there will be no shortfall in supplies as a result of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.”The IEA release is only the fourth time the international organization has overseen a coordinated drawdown of reserves since it was created in 1974, when Arab members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) declared an oil embargo after the Arab-Israeli war. In its announcement Tuesday, the IEA said its initial release is equivalent to 2 million barrels a day for 30 days.“I am pleased that the IEA has also come together today to take action. The situation in energy markets is very serious and demands our full attention,” IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol said. “Global energy security is under threat, putting the world economy at risk during a fragile stage of the recovery.”The U.S. Energy Department plans to release 30 million barrels of oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, one of the most aggressive steps available to the White House as it tries to reduce fuel costs for consumers. In separate statements issued Tuesday, Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm and White House press secretary Jen Psaki suggested that the Biden administration might release more.The United States is “prepared to use every tool available to us to limit disruption to global energy supply as a result of President Putin’s actions,” Psaki said. “We will also continue our efforts to accelerate diversification of energy supplies away from Russia and to secure the world from Moscow’s weaponization of oil and gas.”The release makes up a small percentage of the nation’s total strategic reserves, which held 582.4 million barrels as of Feb. 22. It marks the second time the Biden administration has tapped the reserve in coordination with other countries. The Energy Department released 50 million barrels of oil from the reserve last November in an effort to reduce global prices.Oil industry analysts said it’s unclear exactly what effect the release of stockpiled oil will have on prices. The U.S. oil price rose after Tuesday’s announcement, hitting a seven-year high of $106 a barrel.

Pipeline Imports of U.S. Natural Gas Unhindered Amid Russia-Ukraine Panic – This week was a manic time in natural gas markets globally, and Mexico was not without its share of drama. Last Friday, Mexico’s Cenagas declared a rare critical alert on the Sistrangas national pipeline system, which meant some users would see natural gas restrictions. The alert was related to problems at a gas processing center in the southeast and was an “isolated incident,” a natural gas industry official told NGI’s Mexico GPI. The situation was brought under control quickly, but it added to jitters over natural gas supply amid the Ukraine-Russia conflict. Worry was so high that state utility Comisión Federal de Electricidad (CFE) on Tuesday said it would use fuel oil and other alternate power generation sources in the event natural gas prices in Mexico became uneconomic.“Speculation is that prices are going to rise considerably,” CFE executives said.However, North American natural gas prices have remained relatively in check, albeit with pressure to the upside. Prices rose for a second straight day on Wednesday on the back of global supply worries and record prices for European natural gas.The April Nymex gas futures contract was up 18.9 cents day/day on Wednesday to $4.762/MMBtu. The May contract gained 18.9 cents to close at $4.787.Western powers so far have been hesitant to restrict Russian energy flows, although many major oil and gas firms have announced intentions to dump their Russian assets. Traders have also been hesitant to buy Russian oil and gas, analysts said.“Despite the rising anti-Russian gas sentiment, day on day flows from Russia are largely unchanged,” Rystad Energy analyst Kaushal Ramesh said. Ramesh warned however that “fundamental drivers have by now taken a back seat in driving prices,” and this was likely to be the case for the foreseeable future.Mexico natural gas imports from the United States have not yet been impacted. On Thursday, Mexico imported 5.80 Bcf via pipeline from the United States, and the 10-day average was 5.52 Bcf/d.Mexico’s Central Bank Wednesday, meanwhile, slashed Mexico’s growth forecast for 2022 to 2.4% from a previous forecast of 3.2%, citing the conflict in Europe. New liquefied natural gas (LNG) export buildout appeared as a major topic of interest in both the United States and Mexico in the wake of the conflict in Ukraine. Energy company executives commented on the fact in some quarterly earnings calls. In addition, the International Energy Agency on Thursday issued a 10-point plan to reduce reliance on Russian gas, which could mean more LNG flows into Europe.

Peruvian coastline struggles to recover from oil spill - (video) In mid-January an oil spill hit Peru’s coast just north of the capital Lima. Peru has called it the worst environmental disaster in recent history. It happened when an oil tanker was discharging oil into the La Pampilla refinery controlled by the Spanish energy giant Repsol. The impact of the spill has devastated swathes of Peru’s Pacific coastline.

Amazon and the Peruvian coast ask the UN for help to fight against spills - - Communities from the Amazon jungle and the Peruvian coast came together this Friday in Lima to ask the United Nations for help in dealing with oil spills, a problem that has affected them directly for decades. and it is in force in the country since the accident that occurred last January in the sea of ​​Lima. “The spills that have been verified on the central coast of Peru can help broaden the consciousness of humanity, but that is not enough,” the UN rapporteur on Toxic Substances and Human Rights, Marco Orellana, told Efe, who is conducting a academic visit to Peru and received the demands of the communities. Representatives of native communities from the jungle and the northern coast of the country presented their experiences, requests and complaints to the rapporteur regarding the spills that have affected their way of life linked to nature for decades. Voices with different accents that reflected the diversity of Peru agreed on the importance of the United Nations picking up their message and transferring it to the President of Peru, Pedro Castillo, and to the international community. “There is an element of responsibility, not only of the companies but of the countries where the companies come from. The extraterritorial dimension of human rights and the duty to respect is a universal consideration at this time of the state of international law,” he said. Orellana about it. Associations of artisanal fishermen affected by the spill produced in January at the La Pampilla refinery, which is operated by Repsol, representatives of indigenous Amazonian organizations and communities in northern Peru agreed that the State must provide them with the same rights as other citizens . “A spill had to happen in the capital, something that has been happening in other areas of the country, so that everyone would look to the north and to the Amazon, to see its polluted waters and rivers,” said Macedonio Vásquez, president of the North Region Macro Front. Some of the representatives directly called for the closure of refineries and extraction sites, due to the consequences of spills, especially water pollution, which in turn contaminates fish and causes diseases in populations. “We don’t want any more platforms in our sea because they bring pollution and hunger,” said Vásquez, before affirming that there is much less fishing since the presence of oil companies in his area. Georgina Rivera, president of the Indigenous Council of the Peruvian Amazon and member of the community of Nazareth, in the Amazon region, told Efe that they are asking for the support of the UN, since “they live daily” with the contaminated water of the Chiriaco river, which is their “market and livelihood”, since a spill from the oil pipeline operated by the state-owned Petroperú in 2016. “We ask that the oil companies not work and if they want that they make a consultation in the towns, because we defend our territory and the ILO Convention 169 endorses our cause,” he assured.

Spanish energy giant agrees to compensate thousands over oil spill - Peru on Friday announced an agreement with Spanish energy giant Repsol to compensate thousands of people affected by a devastating oil spill that polluted beaches and killed wildlife. Almost 12,000 barrels of crude spilled into the sea off Peru on January 15 as a tanker unloaded oil at a Repsol owned refinery. Peru’s government said on Twitter it had managed to “get Repsol to sign an agreement of care and economic compensation to those affected by the oil spill” off the coast of Ventanilla, close to the capital Lima. Repsol had blamed the spill on freak waves caused by a volcanic eruption more than 10,000 kilometers away near Tonga. Peru described the incident as an “ecological disaster.” The government says at least 5,000 fisherman and shopkeepers lost their livelihoods due to the polluted sea and beaches. The deal, signed by Chief of Staff Anibal Torres and Repsol Peru president Jaime Fernandez-Cuesta, sees Repsol committing to pay a minimum of 3,000 soles ($789) to those affected within a week of the agreement being finalized. The figure could also rise. Repsol reiterated in a statement its “commitment to remedy the damages provoked by the spill to the communities in the affected area.” The company said it has already donated 3.3 million soles in aid. Last month, Repsol said it had cleaned up 98 percent of the spilled oil, although the government said the figure was far less. The environment ministry says that at least 1,400 hectares of land and sea and 500 hectares of protected nature reserves have been affected. Repsol has paid $363,000 in fines to the Peruvian state over the spill.

Thai government to discuss oil spill compensation with SPRC - The Ministry of Natural Resources and the Environment has directed the governor of Rayong province to meet with representatives from Star Petroleum Refining Plc (SPRC) to determine adequate compensation measures for local fishermen affected by recent oil spills from leaks in SPRC’s undersea pipeline. The meeting, which included representatives from the Pollution Control Department (PCD) and the Department of Marine and Coastal Resources (DMCR), agreed that compensation should be based on a court ruling on Rayong’s worst oil leak, which occurred in 2013. . Jatuporn Buruspat, permanent secretary for the Ministry of Natural Resources and the Environment, said the decision to have Royong Governor Channa Iamsaeng negotiate on behalf of the fishermen was reached during a meeting attended by leaders from the local fishing sector. He also said the most recent official examination of the area’s coastline revealed that the majority of beaches adhered to the government’s pollution regulations, with the exception of those near the oil spill. Sopon Thongdee, director-general of the DMCR, said the agency is currently monitoring tar accumulations at three locations along Mae Ramphueng Beach in collaboration with the PCD, park authorities, Rayong’s Office of Natural Resources and the SPRC. Meanwhile, the SPRC said it will inject additional sealant to prevent leaks from a valve that was found to be damaged during previous tests. According to the company’s most recent statement, the pipeline has been emptied of 37,670 liters of crude in total. That is more than three times the SRPC’s original estimate of approximately 12,000 liters.

Douglas oil pollution likely linked to Irish Sea pipe leak - BBC News - A strong smell of fuel reported by residents of the Isle of Man's capital was likely caused by a recent oil spill, harbour authorities have said. Checks were made across the island's east coast after oil was found in the sea at Douglas breakwater on Sunday. The government's harbour division said a lack of any other information meant it was likely linked to a recent pipe leak off the North Wales coast. No further pollution has been found on the island since then, it added. Isle of Man Coastguard was involved in a patrol of the coastline surrounding Douglas after the "isolated area" of oil was found in the port, which authorities said "appeared to have originated offshore". Multiple reports made on Sunday to emergency services about the smell of fuel, which appeared to have been spread further inland from the island's capital by a southerly wind, the Coastguard added.

Russian LNG Tankers Heading For UK Must Be Stopped, Union Says - The government must immediately intervene to stop two Russian tankers – containing enough liquid gas to supply the UK for up to 12 days – from docking in Kent at the weekend, one of the UK's largest trade unions said. The trade union UNISON said that the Boris Vilkitsky and Fedor Litke are bound for Grain LNG with plans to unload on Sunday, which represents around 200 workers at the Isle of Grain importation terminal owned by National Grid. According to the union, this is despite a law passed in the UK earlier this week banning ships with any Russian connection from all UK ports. UNISON added that a loophole still exists, and it left open the possibility that the Boris Vilkitsky and Fedor Litke could still dock and unload their cargo. Namely, the ban did not cover the origin of cargo, including oil and gas that may ultimately have been bought from Russian state-owned entities. UNISON is calling on transport secretary Grant Shapps to confirm that the ban applies to these two vessels and that both will be prohibited from berthing at the Thames Estuary site, which is 18.5 miles from London. Staff working at Grain LNG are angry that they might be asked to unload the ships’ cargoes. UNISON says they fear losing their jobs if they refuse once the Boris Vilkitsky and the Fedor Litke have anchored off the Isle of Grain. Commenting on the union’s urgent plea to the transport secretary, UNISON head of energy Matt Lay said: “The law passed speedily yesterday should have made the Boris Vilkitsky and Fedor Litke turn back. But both vessels still seem to be very much Kent-bound. “Grant Shapps must send these two ships packing. He needs to make it clear that all Russian ships are banned from every UK port and terminal. The workers at the National Grid terminal don’t want to touch the cargo given the tragedy unfolding in Ukraine. “The staff is determined to show their support for the Ukrainian people and uphold the sanctions imposed against Russia,” Lay added

Operator of Nord Stream 2 denies it filed for bankruptcy - The Swiss-based company behind the Nord Stream 2 pipeline denied on Wednesday that it filed for bankruptcy but confirmed it terminated employee contracts. Long viewed as a Kremlin influence project that would increase Europe's energy dependence on Russia, Nord Stream 2 was one of the first targets of the flurry of Western sanctions triggered by Vladimir Putin's invasion of Ukraine.A local official told Swiss radio broadcaster SRF on Tuesday that the company had filed for bankruptcy and fired all 106 of its employees. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz said the certification of the $11 billion natural gas pipeline would be suspended last Tuesday, a day after Putin ordered Russian troops into eastern Ukraine for a "peacekeeping" mission. The pipeline is fully constructed, but gas had not yet started flowing. The U.S. followed up by rescinding sanctions waivers on Nord Stream 2 AG and its corporate officers, dealing what was likely the death blow to a project that had caused major headaches for President Biden and the trans-Atlantic alliance."We cannot confirm the media reports that Nord Stream 2 has filed for bankruptcy," Nord Stream 2 AG — a wholly owned subsidiary of Russia's Gazprom — said in a statement."The company only informed the local authorities that the company had to terminate contracts with employees following the recent geopolitical developments leading to the imposition of US sanctions on the company," it added.The company told Reuters on Tuesday that it "had to terminate contracts with employees. We very much regret this development."Even as the West and private companies have moved to fully isolate Russia over its unprovoked attack on Ukraine, former German Chancellor Gerhard Schröder — the chairman of the board of Nord Stream 2 AG — has yet to cut his lucrative ties with Russian energy giants. Members of his office staff have quit in protest, according to Politico.

Europe can't stop buying Russian gas. Here's why. -Three days after Russia invaded Ukraine, and after sweeping sanctions were levelled against Vladimir Putin's regime, Europe's appetite for Russian gas shows no sign of diminishing.On Sunday morning, Gazprom, the Kremlin-controlled energy giant, said gas exports from Russia to Europe via Ukraine were proceeding just as expected. On Friday, figures from Ukraine's grid operator showed that European imports of Russian gas through Ukraine jumped by nearly 40% on Thursday, the day the invasion began, according to Bloomberg. Oil and gas have so far been exempted from Western sanctions on Russia. Europe once enjoyed reliable gas supplies from the North Sea field – which is now all but depleted. Russia, meanwhile, has the world's largest reserves of natural gas.The European Union relies on Russia for about 40% of its gas – more than twice as much as Norway, its next-largest import partner. Germany, the largest economy in Europe, relies on Russia for more than half its gas. Germany has been phasing out nuclear power in favour of gas, and has been trying to build a new pipeline to bring in more from Russia. This is the Nord Stream 2 pipeline, which would supplement the existing Nord Stream 1 pipeline and follow a similar route through the Baltic Sea. Germany suspended the Nord Stream 2 project shortly after Russia invaded – but notably, it did not cancel the project altogether. Analysts said increased European imports of Russian gas on the day of the invasion were partly because market forces pushed up the price of non-Russian gas.Stefan Ulrich, a gas analyst at BloombergNEF, said on Thursday that non-Russian gas prices were "well above the likely sales price for many Gazprom import contracts." Europeans have suffered a winter of soaring gas prices, raising home energy bills. European lawmakers are now wary of spooking their voters with the spectre of further price increases. The EU has committed to using renewable energy but the buildout isn't happening fast enough to ease its reliance on Russian energy. Tim Schittekatte, a research scientist at the MIT Energy Initiative,told CNBC: "There is simply not enough grid capacity now to take up more renewables in some parts of Europe."Europe uses gas to make key ingredients for fertilizer, like ammonium nitrate and urea. Disruption to gas supplies therefore also has an impact on the continent's ability to grow crops and feed its population.

BP dumping 20% Rosneft stake, could take a $25 billion hit— BP Plc moved to dump its shares in oil giant Rosneft PJSC, taking a financial hit of as much as $25 billion by joining the campaign to isolate Russia’s economy. The surprise move from the British company is the latest sign of how far Western powers are willing to go to punish President Vladimir Putin for his invasion of Ukraine. BP has been in Russia for three decades and just weeks ago was staunchly defending its presence there. But it was coming under growing pressure from the U.K. government over the alliance with Rosneft. Chief Executive Officer Bernard Looney was summoned by U.K. Business Secretary Kwasi Kwarteng to explain the company’s Russian links last week. Kwarteng welcomed BP’s move on Sunday. “This military action represents a fundamental change,” BP Chairman Helge Lund said in a statement. “It has led the BP board to conclude, after a thorough process, that our involvement with Rosneft, a state-owned enterprise, simply cannot continue.” BP didn’t say whether it was planning to sell its roughly 20% stake in Rosneft, or simply walk away. Any potential buyer would have to navigate a tightening web of economic sanctions that would make any transaction extremely difficult. In a memo to employees, Looney said there would be “financial consequences” from the move that would show up in its next quarterly results. A spokesperson said there could be a writedown of as much as $25 billion. The London-based company did confirm that it would no longer account for its share of oil and gas reserves, production and profit from its stake in Rosneft. Looney will also resign with immediate effect from the Russian company’s board, as will his predecessor Bob Dudley. BP will also exit its other business in Russia, which include three joint ventures with a carrying value on its books of about $1.4 billion.

Energy giant Shell to end partnership with Russia's Gazprom as Ukraine conflict intensifies - Shell said Monday it is ending an "equity partnership" with Gazprom, a Russian state-owned energy company, as the Russia-Ukraine conflict continues. Shell said it's selling a 27.5% stake in Sakhalin-II, an integrated oil and gas project located on the Sakhalin island in Russia, as well as a 50% interest in Salym Petroleum Development N.V., "a joint venture with Gazprom Neft that is developing the Salym fields in the Khanty-Mansiysk Autonomous District of western Siberia." The company also said it's ending its involvement in the Nord Stream 2 pipeline project. "We are shocked by the loss of life in Ukraine, which we deplore, resulting from a senseless act of military aggression which threatens European security," Shell CEO Ben van Beurden said in a statement. "Our immediate focus is the safety of our people in Ukraine and supporting our people in Russia," van Beurden added. "In discussion with governments around the world, we will also work through the detailed business implications, including the importance of secure energy supplies to Europe and other markets, in compliance with relevant sanctions." Shell's announcement comes a day after rival BP said it was offloading its 19.75% stake in Rosneft, another Russian-controlled oil company. Meanwhile, the U.S. — along with other countries — has ramped up sanctions against Russia following its invasion of Ukraine. The company said that it had about $3 billion in "noncurrent assets" through its Gazprom ventures at the end of 2021, noting that exiting these investments will "impact the book value of Shell's Russia assets and lead to impairments."

ExxonMobil Exiting Russia’s Sakhalin-1, Discontinuing New Spending as Ukraine War Rages - ExxonMobil is discontinuing operations and taking steps to exit the Sakhalin-1 oil and natural gas venture, which it operates with Russia’s state-owned Rosneft. In addition, no future investments in new Russian developments are planned in response to the unprovoked attack on Ukraine. The integrated major operates the Sakhalin-1 project with a 30% stake on behalf of an international consortium of Japanese, Indian and Russian companies. “In response to recent events, we are beginning the process to discontinue operations and developing steps to exit the Sakhalin-1 venture,” executives said. “Given the current situation, ExxonMobil will not invest in new developments in Russia.” Because affiliate Exxon Neftegas Ltd. operates Sakhalin-1 with a 30% stake, ExxonMobil has “an obligation to ensure the safety of people, protection of the environment and integrity of operations,” executives said. “Our role as operator goes beyond an equity investment. “The process to discontinue operations will need to be carefully managed and closely coordinated with the co-venturers in order to ensure it is executed safely.” Sakhalin-1’s other partners are represented by Rosneft affiliates RN-Astra (8.5%) and Sakhalinmorneftegaz-Shelf (11.5%). Japan’s Sodeco Consortium has a 30% interest, while India’s Oil and Natural Gas Corp. affiliate ONGC Videsh Ltd. holds a 20% stake.

Exxon to leave Russian energy project, halt new investments in the country - U.S. oil giant Exxon Mobil said on Tuesday it will wind down its operations at a major liquefied natural gas export facility in eastern Russia and halt any new investments in the country. Exxon, the operator of the Sakhalin-1 LNG project that also includes Russian oil company Rosneft as a major stakeholder, will start a “carefully managed” exit, the company said in a press release. Sakhalin-1 has an export capacity of 6.2 million tons a year, and was one of the largest foreign direct investments in the country.“As operator of Sakhalin-1, we have an obligation to ensure the safety of people, protection of the environment and integrity of operations. Our role as operator goes beyond an equity investment. The process to discontinue operations will need to be carefully managed and closely coordinated with the co-venturers in order to ensure it is executed safely.”“Given the current situation, ExxonMobil will not invest in new developments in Russia,” the company added. Exxon owns a 30 percent stake in the project, while Japan’s SODECO Consortium has a 30 percent interest and ONGC Videsh Limited, India’s Oil and Natural Gas Corporation, has 20 percent interest. Exxon is one of the largest foreign investors in Russian energy operations. It’s announcement follows Europe-based energy companies BP, Shell and Equinor who said earlier in the week that they would divest from their own operations in Russia. The energy market has created a de facto embargo of Russian energy exports after nations imposed financial sanctions in response to President Vladimir Putin ordering an invasion of Ukraine. The Biden administration and European allies kicked the country off the SWIFT bank messaging system, sending the ruble into a tailspin and making energy traders wary of dealing in Russian crude oil and natural gas.

TotalEnergies Vows to Withhold Capital in Russia Following ‘Military Aggression’ in Ukraine - The energy industry on Tuesday continued its condemnation of Russia’s unprovoked invasion of Ukraine, with TotalEnergies SE joining BP plc, Equinor ASA and Shell plc in withdrawing capital for new projects. Shunning Russia has been nearly universal, with the western energy majors, some with large interests in the country, pulling back resources. ExxonMobil was one of the few supermajors that had not publicly stated Tuesday afternoon its go-forward plans in Russia, where it has several ventures underway. However, ExxonMobil was said to be evacuating employees from the country. “TotalEnergies supports the scope and strength of the sanctions put in place by Europe and will implement them regardless of the consequences (currently being assessed) on its activities in Russia,” a spokesperson said. “TotalEnergies will no longer provide capital for new projects in Russia.” The French supermajor, like its peers, blasted “Russia’s military aggression against Ukraine, which has tragic consequences for the population and threatens Europe.” The company also said it was standing in “solidarity with the Ukrainian people, who are suffering the consequences and with the Russian people who will also suffer the consequences.” TotalEnergies said it is mobilized “to provide fuel to the Ukrainian authorities and aid to Ukrainian refugees in Europe.” The actions by TotalEnergies followed the initial move by London-based BP plc on Sunday, which announced it would sell its stake in Russia’s state-owned Rosneft. London-based Shell and Norway’s Equinor followed suit on Monday, each announcing they would exit Russian joint ventures and end new investments. Among other things, Shell plans to sell its stake in Russian-controlled Gazprom, which is overseeing the delayed Nord Stream 2 natural gas pipeline that would move Russian supplies to Germany.

Russia Threatens Departing Companies With Prosecution -Foreign companies, including energy firms, which are ditching Russia will be considered pushing their Russian subsidiaries to “deliberate bankruptcy,” which under Russian law includes criminal prosecution for top managers, Upstreamreported on Friday, quoting Russian Deputy Prime Minister Andrey Belousov.Under Russian law, deliberate bankruptcy resulting in damages of over 1.5 million Russian rubles ($13,300 as of March 4) carries a criminal liability.The companies leaving Russia will get fast-track bankruptcy protection, or they transfer their stakes to local managers until they return to Russia, according to aReuters summary of Belousov’s latest comments.Many international companies, including oil majors, have announced they would end their involvement in Russian projects and Russian companies in recent days over the Russian invasion of Ukraine.BP was the first to announce it would divest from Russia. In just a few days, many other Western oil majors followed suit.BP said on Sunday that it would divest its 20-percent stake in Russian giant Rosneft. BP chief executive Bernard Looney resigned from the board of Rosneft with immediate effect. The other Rosneft director nominated by BP, former BP CEO Bob Dudley, also resigned from the board.A day after BP, Shell also said it would exit its equity partnerships with Gazprom entities, including the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline project, its 27.5 percent stake in the Sakhalin-II LNG facility, its 50 percent stake in the Salym Petroleum Development, and the Gydan energy venture. Norway’s Equinor also decided to stop new investments into Russia and begin the process of exiting its Russian joint ventures. ExxonMobil discontinues operations at Sakhalin-1 and will make no new investments in Russia, the U.S. supermajor said this week, deploring “Russia’s military action.”Glencore is reviewing all business activities in Russia, including stakes in En+ and Rosneft, and said it has no operational footprint in Russia, while its trading exposure is not material for Glencore.Trafigura immediately froze investments in Russia and is reviewing the options in respect of its passive shareholding in Vostok Oil in which it has no operational or managerial input.

West still reluctant to target Russian energy on economy fears — Global governments remain reluctant for now to sanction Russian energy, seeking to insulate the world economy from a greater shock even as they tighten the financial grip on the country following its invasion of Ukraine. While oil last week briefly passed $100 a barrel for the first time since 2014 and European natural gas prices jumped as much as 62%, the gains were partly reversed as the U.S. and European nations avoided sanctioning Moscow’s massive energy supplies for punishment. They continue to resist doing so despite fresh plans to further annex President Vladimir Putin’s economy from the international monetary system. Although some Russian banks will now be excluded from the SWIFT payment messaging system, one official said the White House is looking at exemptions for transactions involving the energy sector. The current reluctance to crack down on the source of much of Russia’s wealth reflects the fear that doing so would send energy prices surging even higher, transmitting a stagflationary mix of faster inflation and slower growth around an already fragile world economy. The reprieve may support Putin’s under-threat economy, where commodities account for more than 10% of activity and much of the nation’s budget. “Financial sanctions are often there as a signal of disapproval rather than a real attempt to cause pain and damage,” said John Gieve, a former U.K. government official and central banker. “Arguably that is the case now. We are not restricting energy exports because that would mean more pain for us than we are willing to bear.” The avoidance of targeting Russian energy still may fade the longer the conflict rages and the more countries utilize alternative energy supplies. British Foreign Secretary Liz Truss said Saturday that the U.K. would support restricting Russian energy exports to Europe and that the U.K. was working with Group of Seven partners to reduce dependency on Russia. Russia is a commodities-powerhouse, producing more than 10% of the world’s oil and natural gas, with Europe reliant on it for a third of its gas. “Energy sanctions are certainly on the table,” White House Press Secretary Jen Psaki said on ABC’s “This Week” on Sunday. “We have not taken those off, but we also want to do that and make sure we’re minimizing the impact on the global marketplace and do it in a united way.” The invasion-driven surge in energy prices already has economists predicting a higher and delayed peak in inflation as well as a hit to growth as consumers and companies are forced to allocate more of their budgets to fuel and heating. Even with Russian energy being left alone, the war’s first few days have shown there’ll likely be snags maintaining a smooth flow of oil. Many buyers have backed away from buying Russian crude cargoes for fear of getting ensnared in sanctions or damaging their reputation. Urals, Russia’s most important export grade, is trading at a record discount to international benchmarks.

IEA pushes Europe to wean itself off Russian gas after Ukraine invasion - The European Union should not enter into any new gas supply contracts with Russia, in order to lower its dependence on Russian natural gas, the International Energy Agency said Thursday. The recommendation is part of a 10-point plan published by the Paris-based organization following Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Other recommendations from the IEA include:

• Using alternative sources of gas, from the EU itself and countries such as Norway and Azerbaijan.
• Speeding up the rollout of new solar and wind projects.
• Maximizing generation from nuclear and bioenergy.
• Encouraging consumers to lower their thermostat by 1 degree Celsius.
• And accelerating the replacement of gas boilers with heat pumps. The full listcan be read here.

"Nobody is under any illusions anymore," Fatih Birol, the IEA's executive director, said in a statement Thursday. "Russia's use of its natural gas resources as an economic and political weapon show Europe needs to act quickly to be ready to face considerable uncertainty over Russian gas supplies next winter." The IEA's plan provided what he said were "practical steps to cut Europe's reliance on Russian gas imports by over a third within a year while supporting the shift to clean energy in a secure and affordable way." "Europe needs to rapidly reduce the dominant role of Russia in its energy markets and ramp up the alternatives as quickly as possible," Birol said.

Germany to expedite LNG terminals as alternative to Russian gas - Germany has announced plans to press ahead with building its first liquified natural gas (LNG) shipping terminals to reduce the country’s dependence on Russian natural gas. The move was announced by Chancellor Olaf Scholz during a special Sunday session of the Bundestag called to discuss German policy in the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The possibility of building an LNG terminal at the port of Brunsbüttel on the mouth of the Elbe was first raised in 2018, and a tender was launched in 2019 (see further reading). However, progress on the scheme had been slow, partly as a result of opposition from environmental activists led by climate justice group Ende Gelände. The government now seems likely to expedite this project, and another to the west at Wilhelmshaven. The Brunsbüttel project, which has a price tag of €500m in 2019, is being developed by Dutch energy infrastructure specialist Gasunie. It released a statement the day after Scholz’s announcement saying talks with the federal government about Brunsbüttel were “in the final stage”. It said: “Gasunie hopes to start construction of the terminal before the end of the year. In addition to LNG, this terminal will be made suitable for importing green hydrogen as well.” Scholz also announced plans to increase the amount of natural gas in long-term storage to 2 billion cubic metres. At present, Germany gets about 40% of its natural gas from Russia. It had aimed to double that by certifying the $11bn Nord Stream 2 pipeline. This process now looks to be off the table for the foreseeable future. The chancellor added that the Ukraine crisis underlined the need to move to renewable energy. “The events of recent days and weeks have shown us that responsible, forward-looking energy policy is not just crucial for our economy and our climate. It is also crucial for our security,” he said.

European Natural Gas Prices Surge as Russian Forces Encircle Ukraine, Deepening Supply Fears European natural gas prices on Wednesday reached their highest level since Russia attacked Ukraine last week, as fighting intensified and fears over supply disruptions continued to grow. The Title Transfer Facility was up across the curve, while the prompt month soared by a record 60% from Tuesday’s close to hit an intraday high of nearly $64/MMBtu. Ultimately, the April contract finished close to $54, not far off a record of $59.550 set in December. Russian troops were moving to encircle key cities in Ukraine and the escalating conflict was pressuring commodity prices across the globe. Brent crude for May delivery hit an intraday high of $115.11/bbl, while Asian spot LNG prices were assessed nearly $10 higher day/day near $41. U.S. natural gas prices also climbed, but are more insulated from the war than others across the globe. Energy exports have been excluded from the West’s sanctions against Russia. But the threat of further actions, plus some self-sanctioning among market participants to avoid Russian commodities or the financing needed to buy them, has spooked the market. The prospect of damaged infrastructure in Ukraine as fighting rages there has also factored into natural gas prices. Europe relies on Russia for about a third of its natural gas imports, and roughly 20% of those volumes move through Ukraine. The Gas Transmission System Operator of Ukraine said on Twitter Wednesday that its administrative buildings in Mykolaiv and Kharkiv had been hit by artillery shelling. Employees were evacuated to safety. Operations were not disrupted. While natural gas flows from Russia to Europe again remained strong Wednesday as they have since fighting broke out, traders are said to be avoiding some deals with Gazprom PJSC affiliates. “Extreme market uncertainty because of Russia’s increasing military operations in Ukraine and the similarly intensifying risk of sanctions – which may soon include energy exports – are likely driving the surge, with traders factoring in the rising probability of sanctions on gas for each day the offensive continues,” said Rystad Energy analyst Kaushal Ramesh in a note on Thursday. Russian ships are turning away from some European ports. PAO Sovcomflot-owned LNG vessel Christophe de Margerie abruptly changed destinations late last week after the UK said it would deny port access to Russian-owned ships, according to ship-tracking data. Calls are growing to deny additional Russian LNG tankers from docking at UK terminals. Italy had also reportedly halted its share of financing for the Arctic LNG 2 project being developed by privately-held Russian natural gas producer PAO Novatek. Russia is the world’s fourth largest LNG exporter. Engie EnergyScan analysts said Wednesday that “the sustainability” of the country’s exports volumes are now being called into question. In another major development that’s seen clouding Europe’s supply outlook, reports surfaced Tuesday that Gazprom affiliate Nord Stream 2 AG had terminated its workforce and filed for bankruptcy. The company said online Wednesday that it could not confirm the bankruptcy, saying only that it had ended the contracts of 106 employees. The Switzerland-based company also shut its website down in the face of what it said were growing cyber attacks. German oil and gas producer, Wintershall Dea AG, also said it would write off its financing of the Nord Stream 2 (NS2) pipeline project for a total of $1.1 billion, stop payments to Russia and halt investments in the country. Shell plc said it would exit the project as well.

EU says it's ready if Russia decides to cut off the gas -The European Union is ready in case Russia decides to cut off gas supplies to the bloc in the wake of the Ukraine invasion and subsequent sanctions, Europe's energy chief told CNBC Thursday. The EU receives most of its natural gas supplies from Russia. In 2020, the country accounted for 43.4% of the EU's natural gas stock, followed by Norway at 20%. However, after Western countries imposed severe sanctions on Moscow for its unprovoked invasion of Ukraine last week, there is concern that the Kremlin could retaliate by cutting natural gas supplies to Europe. "We saw from the previous situation when Russia occupied Crimea and we introduced sanctions that there might be [a] retaliation from the Russian side, so, yes, we are ready that Russia's retaliation might cover the energy sector," Kadri Simson, the EU's commissioner for energy, told CNBC. "We have contingency plans in case of partial or full disruption of natural gas," Simson added. Europe has struggled with higher energy prices for several months and Russia's decision to invade Ukraine has put even more pressure on the sector. The benchmark Dutch front-month gas contract hit a new high on Wednesday at $205 a metric ton. The EU has repeatedly talked up the need to diversity its suppliers, but that has not materialized. Now, amid a war in Ukraine on its eastern flank, the European Commission, the executive arm of the EU, has said it wants to finally put an end to this dependency on Russia. "We simply cannot rely so much on a supplier that explicitly threatens us. This is why we reached out to other global suppliers," European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said earlier this week.

A Russian oil and gas embargo is in the cards. And analysts warn it will have huge consequences - It may only be a matter of time before the U.S. and Western allies impose full sanctions on Russia's energy exports, analysts say, warning that such a move would have seismic repercussions for oil and gas markets and the world economy. It comes as Russia's onslaught on key Ukrainian cities enters its second week, with fighting raging in the north, east and south of the country. Western sanctions imposed on Russia over the invasion have so far been carefully constructed to avoid directly hitting the country's energy exports, although there are already signs the measures are inadvertently prompting banks and traders to shun Russian crude. Russia is the world's third-largest oil producer, behind the U.S. and Saudi Arabia, and the world's largest exporter of crude to global markets. It is also a major producer and exporter of natural gas. The U.S. has said that sanctions on Russia's oil and gas flows are "certainly on the table," but that going after exports now could be counterproductive in terms of raising global energy prices. Nonetheless, there have been calls for Western governments to ratchet up measures targeting Russia's economy and Ukraine Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba has called on foreign governments to impose a "full embargo" on Russian oil and gas. John Kilduff, partner at Again Capital, said the market is already starting to believe that Russia's oil exports will be sanctioned. "Oil from Russia will be foreclosed from the global market here at some point and we are already seeing commercial activity reduced, particularly as it relates to Russia exports via maritime assets and that is already hitting the market," "These are barrels that we cannot make up, so that's why this market is on tenterhooks," he added. Oil prices have surged to multiyear highs in recent weeks, with mounting supply disruptions pushing international benchmark Brent crude toward $120 a barrel. The prospect of cutting off the supply of Russian gas could have profound public health and economic consequences, especially given that it is currently winter and governments are already battling the coronavirus pandemic. Brenda Shaffer, senior advisor for energy at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies think tank, told CNBC via telephone that the prospect of removing Russian energy exports from the market would likely result in "a tremendous jolt" to global oil prices and the world economy. "We're in unknown territory if you pull 13% to 15% of global oil out of the pool. Sanctions on Iran and Venezuela, it's not even comparable to what that could do to the global oil market if you actually pulled away most of Russian production," Shaffer said. The impact of Western oil majors pulling the plug on Russia is also likely to have "huge" economic ramifications, Shaffer said, citing a flurry of announcements from the likes of Exxon Mobil, Shell and BP in recent days. "People are really cheering this as a feel-good moment but it's actually going to be a huge, huge shock to the state of these companies and to the stock market in general," Shaffer said.

Nuclear, Coal, LNG: 'No Taboos' in Germany's Energy About-Face (Reuters) -Germany signaled a U-turn in key energy policies on Sunday, floating the possibility of extending the life-spans of coal and even nuclear plants to cut dependency on Russian gas, part of a broad political rethink following Moscow's invasion of Ukraine. Europe's top economy has been under pressure from other Western nations to become less dependent on Russian gas, but its plans to phase out coal-fired power plants by 2030 and to shut its nuclear power plants by end-2022 have left it with few options. In a landmark speech on Sunday, Chancellor Olaf Scholz spelled out a more radical path to ensure Germany will be able to meet rising energy supply and diversify away from Russian gas, which accounts for half of Germany's energy needs. "The events of the past few days have shown us that responsible, forward-looking energy policy is decisive not only for our economy and the environment. It is also decisive for our security," Scholz told lawmakers in a special Bundestag session called to address the Ukraine crisis. "We must change course to overcome our dependence on imports from individual energy suppliers," he said. This will include building two liquefied natural gas (LNG) terminals, one in Brunsbuettel and one in Wilhelmshaven, and raising its natural gas reserves. These plans will likely be a boon for Germany's top utility RWE, which has been backing efforts by German LNG Terminal, a joint venture of Gasunie, Oiltanking GmbH and Vopak LNG Holding, to build an LNG terminal in Brunsbuettel. Separately, the German government has asked RWE's smaller rival Uniper to revive plans to build an LNG terminal in Wilhelmshaven, Handelsblatt newspaper reported on Sunday, after the company scrapped such plans in late 2020. Earlier this week Germany halted the $11 billion Nord Stream 2 Baltic Sea gas pipeline project, Europe's most divisive energy project after Russia formally recognised two breakaway regions in eastern Ukraine.

Where Heating The Home Breaks The Budget - More than one quarter of the Bulgarian population isn't able to properly heat their homes according to data from Eurostat. With a share of 27.5 percent, the Balkan state tops the EU average by almost 20 percent as the following chart shows.Bulgaria is followed by Lithuania with 23.1 percent and Cyprus with 20.9 percent. As Statista's Florian Zandt notes, most countries on this top list are among the lower rungs of the ladder when it comes to economic power, but there are two major exceptions: Spain and Germany. While the former had a GDP of 1.3 trillion euros in 2020, one in ten residents isn't able to properly heat their home due to financial reasons. Even Germany, the biggest economy in the EU, has a share of nine percent of the population who couldn't afford proper heating in 2020.While these numbers might seem high at first glance, the percentage shares of people not being able to afford heating have actually gone down in most countries. For example, Bulgaria stood at almost 40 percent in 2016. A similar development can be seen in Greece, which almost halved the share of its population who can't afford proper heating from 29.1 percent in 2016 to 16.7 percent in 2020.On the other side of the spectrum, Spain and Germany again stand out on this list. In 2019, 2.5 percent of Germans and 7.5 percent of Spaniards assessed they didn't have the finances to properly heat their home.While there's no way to pinpoint one reason for the jump in these two countries, the coronavirus pandemic likely played a big part due to the job insecurities it created even in richer nations around the globe. With the energy price hike in 2021 and the fallout of Russia's aggression towards Ukraine, the numbers for last year and this year are bound to rise again across the EU.

Ukraine war may leave lasting mark on energy, world economy - The impact of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine rattled global markets. There will be lasting implications for commodities, energy policy and the energy transition, experts from global natural resources consultancy, a Verisk business said. The world’s dependence on Russia for certain commodities cannot be overstated ‒ from gas, coal, oil, iron ore, aluminum, platinum group metals and zinc to copper, lead, petrochemicals and fertilizers. Many major international oil and gas companies, utilities and miners are invested in Russia. Wood Mackenzie’s global team has analyzed the risks to commodities and corporate exposure, as well as the wider economic fallout. War in Ukraine is piling pressure onto a European gas market that was already going through its worst crisis on record. Russian pipeline imports account for 38% of EU demand, making sanctions on Russian flows prohibitive. But if the EU was to stop all Russian gas flows, the long-term implications could be severe. Russia, too, would lose much. At current prices, it would give up $7.5 billion of revenues a month, possibly more. In the tussle between Russia and the EU over gas imports, business as usual remains the most pragmatic, and likely, outcome. Having to replace Russian coal volumes would result in a price shock to global coal markets and a coal shortage in Europe. Russian coal accounts for roughly 30% of European metallurgical coal imports and over 60% of European thermal coal imports. The primary issue with replacing Russian coal exports in Europe is its reliance on Russia’s particular quality of coal. Coal-fired power currently accounts for around 14% of Europe’s generation mix. The impact on European power markets from a Russian coal shortage would not be as significant as gas. Crucially, though, Europe may not be able to depend on coal plants to make up for gas-fired generation losses. As much as 2.3 million bpd of Russia’s 4.6 million bpd of crude oil exports go to the West. The US has made it clear it does not intend to impose direct sanctions on Russia’s oil exports. We are seeing slowdowns in Russian crude purchases. Until payment terms are clarified, further tightening in the supply and demand balance is expected. Russia and Saudi Arabia are partners in an OPEC+ production restraint agreement. In the case of an actual oil supply cut, OPEC would be more likely to consider using spare capacity to help offset losses, rather than raise output above target levels. Russian diesel/gas oil is of greater significance to Europe, as the region imports more than 8% of its demand from Russia. Fuel oil and residues are traded globally and often consumed as feedstocks by US Gulf Coast refiners or as bunker fuel for commercial shipping in Asia. As with crude oil, we do not expect a turn away from Russia’s refined product exports. Ukraine has few metal extraction and processing production facilities of scale, so the disruption to production will have a relatively small impact globally. Ceasing the output and export of certain commodities, such as aluminum, platinum group metals and iron ore, however, would have a disproportionate impact, as markets are already under supply pressure. Of greater consequence are any limits on the ability of Russian producers to import raw materials to or export finished products from Russia. Another concern is whether counterparties are willing or able to transact with their offshore entities. As sanctions ratchet up, any metals and mining companies whose shareholders have links to the Kremlin are at risk.

 The world could be on the brink of an energy crisis rivaling the 1970s, says IHS Markit's Yergin -Russia's Ukraine invasion could have set in motion an energy market disruption on the scale of major oil crises in the 1970s, according to Daniel Yergin, vice chairman of IHS Markit. Moscow is one of the world's largest oil exporters. Sanctions by the U.S. and allies on Russia's financial system have already set in motion a backlash against Russian crude from banks, buyers and shippers. Yergin, also an author and energy market historian, said even though Russian energy was not sanctioned by the U.S. and other countries, there could be a large loss of Russian barrels from the market. The country exports about 7.5 million barrels a day of oil and refined products, he noted. "This is going to be a really big disruption in terms of logistics, and people are going to be scrambling for barrels," Yergin said. "This is a supply crisis. It's a logistics crisis. It's a payment crisis, and this could well be on the scale of the 1970s." He said strong communications between governments imposing the sanctions and the industry could head off a worst-case scenario. "Governments need to provide clarity," Yergin said. He noted that members of NATO receive about half of Russia's exports. "Some share of that is going to be disrupted," Yergin said. Wariness toward Russian oil Yergin said there are "de facto" sanctions working to keep Russian oil from the market, even though energy was not specifically sanctioned. Buyers are wary of Russian oil because of pushback from banks, ports and shipping companies that do not want to run afoul of sanctions. JPMorgan estimates that 66% of Russian oil is struggling to find buyers, and that crude prices could reach $185 by the end of the year if Russian oil remains disrupted. "This could be the worst crisis since the Arab oil embargo and the Iranian revolution in the 1970s," Yergin said. Both events were major oil shocks in that decade.

Oil jumps as traders fear disruption in Russia's energy industry --Oil prices jumped early Monday after the U.S. and Western allies imposed sanctions on specific Russian banks, prompting fears that energy supplies will be indirectly affected. Brent crude, the international oil benchmark, rose by as much 7% to trade as high as $105 per barrel. West Texas Intermediate crude futures, the U.S. benchmark, also gained more than 7% to trade above $99 per barrel. Prices later eased slightly. WTI settled the day 4.5%, or $4.13, higher at $95.72 per barrel, while Brent gained 2.7% to trade at $100.55. Both contracts broke above $100 on Thursday for the first time since 2014 after Russia invaded Ukraine. However, the initial spike was somewhat short lived with WTI and Brent retreating throughout Thursday's session and into Friday's trading after the White House's first round of sanctions did not target Russia's energy system. At that point, traders thought the market was out of the woods in terms of a major interruption in supply, but there was a "remarkable escalation across the board" over the weekend and that put a risk premium back into prices, according to Bob McNally, president of Rapidan Energy Group. He pointed to the decision to remove some Russian banks from the global interbank messaging system Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication (SWIFT), impose measures on Russia's central bank that prevents it from deploying its reserves and Russian President Vladimir Putin placing his nuclear deterrence forces on high alert. "We could go to $110 or $115 a barrel before it retraces," he told CNBC's "Street Signs Asia" on Monday. On Saturday, the U.S., European allies and Canada said they would disconnect specific Russian banks from SWIFT. "This will ensure that these banks are disconnected from the international financial system and harm their ability to operate globally," the global powers wrote in a joint statement announcing the retaliatory measure. Russia is a key oil and gas supplier, especially to Europe. While the latest round of sanctions do not target energy directly, experts say there will be significant ripple effects. "The various banking sanctions make it highly difficult for Russian petroleum sales to occur now," said John Kilduff, partner at Again Capital. "Most banks will not provide basic financing, due to the risk of running afoul of sanctions." Putin could also decide to retaliate against the U.S. and allies' action by weaponizing energy and turning off the taps directly. "[W]e do think a number of Western firms may decide that it is not worth the risk of continuing to do business with Russia given the uncertainty about enforcement and the trajectory of future coercive action," RBC said Sunday in a note to clients.

Brent Nears 8-Year High as Russia Pushes Deeper Into Ukraine-- Oil futures nearest delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange and Brent crude traded on the Intercontinental Exchange settled the last trading day of February with sharp gains. The moves followed an initial round of peace talks between Russia and Ukraine that concluded without an agreement to end the violence across the battered European country, as Russian President Vladimir Putin's forces continued their offensives on the country's two largest cities of Kiev and Kharkiv. Multiple reports indicate that heavy shelling targeting civilian areas across Ukraine's largest cities resumed Monday after peace talks near the Belarusian border failed to produce a ceasefire agreement. Instead, both sides went back to their respective capitals for further consultations and agreed to continue talks later this week. Expectations for a ceasefire agreement at this point of the conflict were extremely low after Putin indicated on multiple occasions that he seeks capitulation of Ukraine's now-seated President Volodymyr Zelensky and to replace him with pro-Russian puppet. Until the invasion began, investors seemed confident the intensifying conflict and sanctions would not disrupt oil exports from Russia. This might be changing. Unprecedented move by the Western allies will no doubt erect major obstacles for Russian banks to process transactions for the country's oil and gas shipments. Russia exports around 4.5 million barrels per day (bpd) of crude oil, which would be challenging to replace. The International Energy Agency estimates spare capacity held by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries is now 5 million bpd, and expects it to shrink below 3 million bpd in the second half of the year. This suggests OPEC does not have enough room to raise production to cover a shortfall in Russia's oil exports. Russia is also the world's largest exporter of natural gas. European gas prices jumped 33% overnight because of sanctions, further fueling worries of an energy crisis. At this point, traders anticipate economic warfare between the United States and Russia will eventually disrupt global energy flows in one shape or another, even though both the U.S. and Russian governments insist this is not their intention. Goldman Sachs this morning revised its Brent crude oil price forecast to $115 per barrel (bbl) from $95 per bbl, with short-term risks skewed to the upside. On the session, NYMEX West Texas Intermediate for April delivery added $4.13 to settle at $95.72 per bbl, and ICE Brent April futures expired at $100.99 per bbl, up $3.06 per bbl on the session, and the first settlement on the spot continuous chart above $100 per bbl since 2014. Next-month delivery Brent May contract settled the session with a $3.02 per bbl discount to April. March RBOB futures advanced 6.97 cents to expire at $2.7970 per gallon, with the next-month April contact settling at $2.9325 per gallon. NYMEX ULSD March futures expired at $3.0134 per gallon, surging 16.39 cents, and next-month April futures settled at $2.9313 per gallon.

Oil soars as emergency crude release fails to quell supply fears — Oil surged as a decision by the U.S. and other major economies to release emergency stockpiles failed to ease concerns of a major shortfall in supplies as sanctions mount on Russia. West Texas Intermediate West Texas Intermediate crude rose 9.4% to $104.72 a barrel on Tuesday. The International Energy Agency agreed to deploy 60 million barrels from stockpiles around the world, which amounts to less than six days of Russian output. Financial sanctions against Russia continue to mount, raising the specter of a major global supply disruption. “We are quite afraid that we are going to lose supply from Russia,” said Bart Melek, head of commodity strategy at TD Securities. “The release from strategic reserves does not seem to be enough.” The rally was further strengthened by options positioning. As prices blew past key levels like $100, where traders had amassed bullish positions, banks that sold those contracts found themselves exposed. As banks are forced to buy futures to cover their risk, the rally snowballs. The invasion of Ukraine has upended commodity markets from oil to natural gas and wheat, piling inflationary pressure on governments. While the U.S. and Europe have so far stopped short of imposing sanctions directly on Russian commodities, the trade in those raw materials is seizing up as banks pull financing and shipping costs surge. Russia is the world’s third-biggest oil producer and, along with Saudi Arabia, an influential member of the OPEC+ alliance. Wall Street banks including Goldman Sachs Group Inc., Morgan Stanley and JPMorgan Chase & Co. have boosted their oil price forecasts, anticipating possible supply disruptions. Consultant OilX said the probability of heavy disruption of seaborne Russian crude and products is growing, which could push prices above $150 a barrel. The turmoil sparked by the invasion will bring a new challenge in balancing a tightening market for OPEC+, which meets Wednesday to discuss output policy. Delegates said the cartel will probably stick to its plan of only gradually increasing supply. President Vladimir Putin spoke to the leader of the U.A.E. ahead of the meeting, while Saudi Arabia said it supports efforts to reduce escalation in Ukraine. West Texas Intermediate rose $9.03 to settle at $104.75 a barrel. Brent gained $8.04 to settle at $106.01 a barrel. Indications of just how tight supply has been is showing in the market’s structure. Brent remains deep in backwardation, where prompt barrels command higher prices than later-dated cargoes. The benchmark’s prompt timespread was $3.93 a barrel in backwardation after surging on Tuesday.

Crude Oil WTI Spikes: The Storm Today after the Calm Yesterday -- By Wolf Richter --The benchmark US crude oil grade WTI spiked by 11% in early afternoon futures trading, to $106.75 a barrel, the highest since June 2014 ($107.49 a barrel), before beginning to ease off just a tad. This is still far lower than where WTI was back in July 2008, when it closed at $145, and intraday hit the $150-mark.WTI is now up 20% from a month ago and 75% from a year ago. About 66% of crude oil consumption in the US in 2020 was in form of fuels for transportation. About 30% was for industrial and commercial uses, such as by the petrochemical industry. About 3% was consumed by residential users, such as heating oil.A spike in crude oil prices pushes up the prices of transportation fuels, and thereby the cost of transportation, from commuting and flying to shipping goods. Fuel surcharges are common in the shipping industry. Transportation costs are passed on in form of higher prices of goods.A spike in crude oil prices also pushes up the costs for all kinds of things, such as plastics, synthetic fibers for clothing, asphalt, building materials, etc., that manufacturers, in the current inflationary mindset, have no trouble passing on to the next entity in line, and finally to the consumer. A spike in crude oil prices like this are the last thing anyone needs when CPI inflation is already at 7.5%.

Oil Surges 8% as Traders Circumvent Russian Crude Shipments -- Oil futures nearest delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange and Brent crude traded on the Intercontinental Exchange rallied again Tuesday, sending U.S. crude benchmark above $104 barrel (bbl) as intensifying fighting in the Ukraine could lead to additional sanctions on Russian oil shipments at a time when the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries seen unable to quickly boost crude production to bridge a growing shortfall in lost Russian exports. As violence in Ukraine intensifies by the minute, traders are increasingly refusing to deal with Russian oil shipments while banks scrap financing deals, according to industry sources. Vitol and Trafigura Group, two of the world's biggest independent oil traders, said on Tuesday they were unable to sell any of the Russian crude they hold in long-term contracts. Reasonably, market participants fear sanctions on Russia's oil and gas shipments could be announced any minute and stop cargoes in transit before they reach buyers. Traders are offering Urals crude, Russia's flagship oil grade, at massive discounts of around $10 bbl compared to the front-month Brent crude. A sharp drop in the price of ESPO, a grade of Russian crude popular in Asia, suggests refiners in Japan and South Korea are pausing purchases from Russia alongside those in Europe and the United States. Adding further pressure on the oil complex, a growing list of international oil companies have dumped investments and walked away from cooperation agreements with their Russian counterparts in response to the developing situation in Ukraine. London-based Shell plc said Monday it was ditching its joint venture with Gazprom, walking away from its 27.5% stake in the Sakhalin-2 liquified natural gas facility, its 50% stake in a project to develop the Salym fields in western Siberia, and its 50% interest in an exploration project in the Gydan peninsula in northwestern Siberia. Shell's move follows British Petroleum's announcement Sunday that it was abandoning one of Russia's biggest foreign investments by exiting its 19.75% stake in Rosneft and associated joint ventures. Even news released late Tuesday that the U.S. and oil-consuming members of the International Energy Agency will release 60 million bbl of oil from strategic stockpiles didn't tamp down the price rally. While the group said it would "send a unified and strong message to global oil markets that there will be no shortfall in supplies as a result of Russia's invasion of Ukraine," the market clearly sees otherwise. The release of strategic reserves is simply not enough to move the needle on oil prices. Traders now await U.S. President Joe Biden's first State of the Union address when he could announce additional sanctions against Russia in response to the shocking bombing of Ukrainian cities. Frustrated with the slow progress in their offensive, Russian forces seemed to have altered their tactics by terrorizing civilians and targeting Ukrainian city centers in broad daylight. On Monday, the International Criminal Court said it would open an investigation into whether Russia has committed war crimes and crimes against humanity in Ukraine. As the fighting reached beyond military targets on day six of the Russian invasion that has shaken the post-World War 2 century world order, reports have emerged that Moscow has used cluster bombs on three populated areas. If confirmed, that would mean the war has reached a worrying new level. At settlement, NYMEX West Texas Intermediate for April delivery spiked $7.69 to $103.41 bbl, and ICE Brent May contract jumped $7 to $104.97 bbl. NYMEX April RBOB futures rallied 15.62 cents or 5.95% to $3.0887 gallon, with April ULSD futures spiked nearly 22 cents to $3.1511 gallon.

OPEC+ agrees gradual output hike despite oil price rally, intensifying Russia supply fears - OPEC and non-OPEC partners, an influential energy alliance known as OPEC+, agreed on Wednesday to stick to their plans of small output rise in April, defying calls for more crude even as prices rally to multi-year highs on Russia supply disruption fears. It comes as Russia's intensifying war with Ukraine enters its seventh day, with fighting raging across the country. The producer alliance said it had agreed to adjust the upward monthly overall output by 400,000 barrels per day for the month of April. The decision had been widely expected by energy analysts. Oil prices jumped on the news. International benchmark Brent crude futures traded at $113.36 a barrel on Wednesday afternoon in London, up around 8%, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures stood at $111.42 a barrel, roughly 7.8% higher. OPEC alone accounts for around 40% of the world's oil supply. Ahead of the meeting, the International Energy Agency said it would move forward with a 60-million-barrel global release to offset energy market disruptions caused by international sanctions against Russia over its war with Ukraine. The U.S. has said 30 million of that total will come from the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve. The release of oil from the U.S. and other IEA members reflects the magnitude of expected disruptions to global energy markets. As a result, he called on de-facto OPEC leader Saudi Arabia to use its spare capacity to help the global market, stand up to its non-OPEC partner Russia, and support Ukraine. The Saudis have it within their power to snuff out some of this rally that we're seeing for sure. They could easily put another 1 million to 2 million barrels per day of oil on the market with almost the flick of a switch," he said. "That's what I think they should be talking about doing and acting towards and be more pro-West and pro-Ukraine, for that matter, rather than with their business partner of Russia." Sanctions imposed on Russia over its invasion of Ukraine have so far been carefully constructed to avoid directly hitting the country's exports, although there are signs the measures are inadvertently prompting banks and traders to shun Russian crude. In the event that Western leaders were to impose sanctions on Russia's energy exports, a move the White House says is "certainly on the table," it would have far-reaching implications for the global economy. Russia is one of the world's largest oil-producing nations and the world's second-largest producer of natural gas. U.S. President Joe Biden warned Russia's Vladimir Putin in a State of the Union speech on Tuesday that he has "no idea what's coming" shortly after a flurry of Western oil majors announced plans to pull the plug on their Russian operations.

Oil Surges Into 'Super-Backwardation' After OPEC+ Sticks To Production Plan, Shuns Biden's Demands - In what one observer called "the fastest one yet" - the meeting lasted just 13 minutes, beating last month’s record for brevity - OPEC+ 23-nation coalition led by Saudi Arabia ratified an increase of 400,000 barrels a day on Wednesday, continuing the gradual restoration of output halted during the pandemic, according to delegate sources. This was merely ratifying the plan - as expected - and notably gives no deference to President Biden's urgings for the cartel to raise production to rescue his approval ratings at home. The quota breakdown is as follows:Source: @Amena_Bakr Have tried twice yesterday to send headlines around the world of a 60mm barrel release from global strategic reserves, and now OPEC+ not helping, oil prices are re-extending gains this morning with WTI back above $110... As we detailed last night, one reason for the continued surge in prices - despite all the hoop-la from Biden - is a rather grim assessment from Goldman which echoes what we said earlier, namely that yesterday's IEA release of 60 million barrels of emergency oil reserves will do exactly nothing to halt oil's tremendous surge higher. As Goldman's Damien Courvalin writes, writing about the release of 60 mb of emergency oil reserves following Russia's invasion of Ukraine "we do not view this as sufficient relief, representing an only 1-month offset to a potential disruption to one-third of Russia's 6 mb/d seaborne oil export flows, for example, consistent with the rally in prices after today's announcement."As such, Goldman reiterates its view - discussed here yesterday - that only demand destruction - through even higher prices - is now likely the only sufficient rebalancing mechanism, with supply elasticity no longer relevant in the face of such a potential large and immediate supply shock.This leaves risk to our one-month $115/bbl Brent price forecast still skewed to the upside, with today's $105/bbl spot prices only at the level we believed was required to balance the oil market prior to any escalation in Ukraine.Furthermore, Courvalin writes that a short-term deescalation or a potentially faster ramp-up in OPEC+ production would also not derail the bank's view for structurally higher prices, with Dec-23 Brent $24/bbl below our forecast; "Similarly, we do not expect a large price sell-off should an agreement with Iran be reached soon. Case in point, the global oil deficit in February is turning out to be twice as large as our above-consensus forecast while Iraq is experiencing 0.5 mb/d of outages, enough - if sustained and combined - to fully nullify Iran's potential return to the global oil market."

WTI Extends Gains After Cushing Stocks Drop Near 'Tank Bottoms', Crude Draws - Oil prices are significantly higher this morning from yesterday's settlement, with WTI around $109 (having topped $112 earlier), as the market shrugs off Biden's plans to release some of the SPR, focusing still on geopolitical risk premia (and the fact that Russia's supply has been implicitly cut from the market as the tender for Urals crude received no bids this morning - it seems buyers are afraid of the potential for forthcoming sanctions to impact any purchases made now).OPEC+ stuck to its plan this morning to increase production by 400k bbl/day: “The situation in energy markets is very serious and demands our full attention,” IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol said in a statement. “Global energy security is under threat, putting the world economy at risk during a fragile stage of the recovery.” For now, all eyes will be on the official data to see if API's big crude draw is confirmed...API

• Crude -6.1mm (+2.8mm exp) - biggest draw since September
• Cushing -1mm
• Gasoline -2.5mm
• Distillates +0.4mm

DOE

• Crude -2.597mm (+2.8mm exp)
• Cushing -972k
• Gasoline -468k
• Distillates -574k

Draws across the board. Cushing stocks fell for the 8th straight week and crude inventories confirmed API's report with a sizable (though smaller than API) draw against expectations of a build... Source: Bloomberg This pushes Cushing stocks ever nearer operational lows as 'tank bottoms' are in sight... US crude production was unchanged despite fresh urgings from the Biden admin and rising rig counts...WTI was hovering around $109 ahead of the official data.

Oil blasts through $110/bbl, as few alternatives seen to Russian supply (Reuters) - Oil surged relentlessly beyond $110 a barrel on Wednesday, extending its rally since Russia invaded Ukraine seven days ago, on expectations that the market will remain short of supply for months to come following sanctions on Moscow and a flood of divestment from Russian oil assets by major companies.The market rallied into the close of trading on heavy volume, with global benchmark Brent crude ending the day at its highest close since June 2014, while U.S. crude's settlement was its highest since May 2011.The oil rally has been dramatic, with Brent gaining over 15% this week alone as the West responded to Moscow's invasion with numerous sanctions, which have targeted financial transactions and banks, designed to hammer Russia's economy.While the energy sector was not specifically targeted, the sanctions have hampered exporting capabilities from Russia, whose oil exports account for about 8% of global supply, or 4 million to 5 million barrels per day, more than any nation other than Saudi Arabia."It increasingly looks like the market is pricing in a supply disruption to at least part of the nearly 4 million barrels per day of oil that is sold into the U.S. and EU," said Andrew Lipow, president of Lipow Oil Associates in Houston.Brent crude futures peaked at $113.94 a barrel during the session, before settling at $112.93, up $7.96, or 7.6%.U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures hit a high of $112.51 a barrel, and closed $7.19, or 7%, higher at $110.60.Relief in the form of more supply is unlikely in the near-term. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies - which include Russia - stuck to their long-term plan to boost output by just 400,000 barrels per day at a brief meeting on Wednesday. read moreEven as the producer group, known as OPEC+, has increased output for the last several months, member states are routinely falling short of their targets, widening a gap that can only be filled by dipping into stockpiles. Current worldwide demand has roughly reached pre-pandemic levels, and there is inadequate supply, causing large countries to dip into their stockpiles to make up for the shortfall.Refiners and other buyers of oil are scrambling. Prominent grades of crude oil traded worldwide, such as those in the North Sea and the Middle East, are at record premiums above Brent. read more. At the same time, the key Russian Urals grade is being discounted at $18 lower than the benchmark - and prospective sellers are still finding little interest in Russian oil. On Wednesday, Russia's Surgutneftegaz was unable to sell 880,000 tonnes of Urals oil from Russian ports, following cancellations of other proposed sales. read more. Adding fuel to the fire, the White House on Wednesday said it was "very open" to the possibility of targeting Russian oil-and-gas with sanctions. That could drive prices even higher, analysts said, until consumers start to balk at the rising costs. read moreThe United States has attempted to thread the needle between actions that will hurt global oil markets and those aimed at Russia. On Wednesday, the U.S. imposed new export curbs on specific refining technologies, intended to hurt Russia's oil refining sector down the road. read more Trade in Russian oil was already in disarray as producers postponed sales, importers rejected Russian ships and buyers worldwide searched elsewhere for crude as Western sanctions and pullouts by private companies squeezed Russia. read more 

"The Market Is Starting To Fail": Buyers Balk At Russian Oil Purchases Despite Record Discounts, Sanction Carve Outs -- While in their unprecedented broadside of sanctions on Russia, the U.S. and Western allies went out of their way to spare Russian energy shipments and keep economies humming and voters warm, the oil market has gone on strike anyway. Acting as if energy were already in the crosshairs of Western sanctions officials, refiners have balked at buying Russian oil and banks are refusing to finance shipments of Russian commodities, the WSJ reports citing traders, oil executives and bankers.This self-imposed embargo which has effectively halted a majority of Russian oil shipments, threatens to drive up energy prices globally by removing a gusher of oil from a market that was tight even before the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Meanwhile, Russia, waging war and in need of revenue with its financial system in turmoil, is taking extreme steps to convince companies to buy its most precious commodity.We previously reported that owners of oil tankers had already started to avoid Russian ports because of both the military invasion of Ukraine and apprehension that sanctions for oil could also come soon, and as a result rates for oil tankers on Russian crude routes had exploded as much as nine-fold in the past few days.But now, amid growing fears they will fall afoul of complex restrictions in different jurisdictions, refiners and banks are balking at purchasing any Russian oil at all, traders and others involved in the market say. Market players also fear that measures that target oil exports directly could land as fighting in Ukraine intensifies.“This is going to make it very complex to trade with Russia,” Sarah Hunt, a partner at law firm HFW who works with commodities traders, said of the sanctions laid out as of Monday. “These sanctions against Russia will have an incredible effect on global trade and on trade finance.”Brent-crude futures, the benchmark in international energy markets, rose nearly 8% Tuesday to above $105 a barrel. But in a sign that demand for Russian oil has evaporated, prices for the country’s flagship Urals crude moved in the opposite direction. On Tuesday, traders offered Urals brent at a record discount of around $15 a barrel below the price of Brent - with the discount at one point hitting as much as $18.60 - and even then not finding buyers. A drop in the price of Espo, a grade of Russian crude popular in Asia, suggests refiners in Japan and South Korea are hitting pause on purchases alongside those in Europe and the U.S.

70% Of Russian Crude Trade Is Frozen As Surgut Again Fails To Sell Any Urals In Big Tenders --As discussed yesterday in "Buyers Balk At Russian Oil Purchases Despite Record Discounts, Sanction Carve Outs" the bevy of Russian sanctions have had the unintended consequence of also freezing Russian oil exports - despite explicit carve outs in terms set by Western nations - as buyers balk and boycott Russian crude sales amid fears that the country's energy supplies may eventually fall under a sanctions regime anyway, leaving buyers stuck with millions in barrels they can't then sell to downstream clients.Today was a clear example of just that: citing traders with knowledge of tenders, Bloomberg reported that Surgutneftegaz (better known as Surgut) failed to award two tenders with combined volume of 880k tons of Urals for March loading.This was the third time that Surgut failed to sell any of the crude it was offering, "highlighting the difficulty for Russian producers to find buyers after the nation’s invasion into Ukraine."In a separate, smaller tender, Surgut was offering 8 cargoes of 100k tons each from Baltic ports, and another 80k tons cargo from Black Sea in a separate tender. It was unclear if any bidders stepped up for those.Of course, the longer Russia, and its roughly 6 mm barrels in daily oil exports remain stuck, the greater the cumulative price shock will be. Commenting on this, Bloomberg's Alaric Nightingale said that there’s a clear and obvious short-term supply shock for Russian oil and that’s why prices are marching ever higher, having hit a decade high of $114 earlier today before stabilizing around $110.As Nightingale continues, "tanker companies don’t want to take it and refineries are looking elsewhere. There is a huge risk in being involved in Russian barrels. Imagine you are a trader of Russian crude. You have to get the barrels and freight cheap enough, and then you have to know you have an end buyer who’ll take the cargo no matter what. Some tanker owners will go at the right price, some won’t. Some refineries are already voting with their feet." In short, there is a sense across the petroleum supply chain that sanctions aren’t done yet or aren’t well-enough understood yet. That’s why things are getting blocked.

Russia’s Oil Exports Are Plunging Even Without Sanctions --Russia's invasion of Ukraine has triggered severe economic sanctions, particularly on its financial sector. Last week, Western leaders slapped a raft of fresh sanctions on Russia, including the exclusion of Russia's largest financial institutions from global financial systems; imposing an asset freeze against all major Russian banks, canceling all export permits with Russia, and prohibiting all major Russian companies from raising financing within their territories, among other measures. The leaders have, however, refrained from sanctioning Russia's pivotal energy sector, presumably because it would throw an already tight global energy market into further disarray. But you wouldn't tell that by looking at the oil markets right now. Oil prices and energy stocks are trading at multi-year highs after international refiners adopted a self-imposed embargo, with many reluctant to buy Russian oil and banks refusing to finance shipments of Russian raw materials. Refiners and banks are unwilling to do business with Russia due to the risk of falling under complex restrictions in different jurisdictions. Market participants are also concerned that measures directly targeting oil exports could soon come into place as fighting in Ukraine escalates. "It's going to make trading with Russia very complex. These sanctions against Russia will have an incredible effect on global trade and trade finance," Sarah Hunt, a partner at law firm HFW who works with commodity traders, has told the Wall Street Journal. The situation is getting desperate for the Russian oil sector, with oil exports falling sharply despite selling at massive discounts. According to Energy Intelligence, Russian oil export flows have fallen by at least one-third - or some 2.5 million barrels per day - despite a discount of $11 per barrel versus dated Brent being offered for distressed cargoes of Russian Urals. Russia normally exports 4.7 million b/d of crude and 2.8 million b/d of products, according to government data. But Energy Intelligence now estimates that ~1.5 million b/d of crude and 1 million b/d of refined products are not making it to the market. Other than the sanctions, European refiners are also reluctant to buy Russian oil due to its high sulfur content. Refiners prefer lighter grades since they need less treatment with expensive natural gas, thus allowing for higher margins.

U.S. oil jumps to highest since 2013, tops $109 a barrel as Russia's war on Ukraine sparks supply fears - U.S. oil climbed to the highest level in more than a decade in Wednesday trade, with global benchmark Brent topping $113 per barrel after OPEC and its oil-producing allies, which includes Russia, decided to hold production steady. The oil market was already tight prior to Russia's invasion of Ukraine, and with countries now shunning oil from key producer Russia, traders are worried that supply shortfalls will follow. West Texas Intermediate crude futures, the U.S. oil benchmark, jumped more than 8% to trade at $112.51 per barrel, the highest level since May 2011. Global benchmark Brent crude rose more than 8% to $113.94 per barrel, the highest level since June 2014. Prices later moved off their highs. WTI settled the day 6.95% higher at $110.60 per barrel, while Brent advanced 7.58% to $112.93. During trading Tuesday WTI gained 8.03% to settle at $103.41 per barrel, while Brent advanced 7.15% to $104.97. OPEC and its allies said Wednesday that they will increase output in April by 400,000 barrels per day above March's level, despite the blistering rally in oil that has pushed prices well above $100. "There's no respite. This is a dramatic moment for the market and the world and supplies," Both WTI and Brent surged above $100 last Thursday for the first time since 2014 after Russia invaded Ukraine, prompting supply fears. "Crude prices can't stop going higher as a very tight oil market will likely see further risk to supplies as the War in Ukraine unfolds," On Tuesday member states of the International Energy Agency announced plans to release 60 million barrels of oil reserves in an effort to alleviate the upward march in oil prices. As part of that, the U.S. will release 30 million barrels. But the announcement did little to calm markets. "We do not view this as sufficient relief," Goldman Sachs wrote in a note to clients following the announcement. "Demand destruction — through still higher prices — is now likely the only sufficient rebalancing mechanism, with supply elasticity no longer relevant in the face of such a potential large and immediate supply shock," the firm added. Both WTI and Brent are now up more than 40% year to date as demand rebounds while supply remains constrained. Global producers have kept output in check, and OPEC and its oil-producing allies have been slowly returning barrels to the market after implementing an unprecedented supply cut of nearly 10 million barrels per day in April 2020. Most recently, the group's been raising output by 400,000 barrels per day each month. "We think the producer group will likely stay the course with the current easing schedule and avoid wading into the deepening security crisis involving the group co-chair Russia," RBC wrote in a note to clients ahead of the meeting. The firm did note that there "could be a strategy shift in the coming weeks" should there be an actual physical supply disruption. Russia is a key oil and gas producer and exporter — especially to Europe. So far the country's energy complex has not been targeted by sanctions directly. However, there are ripple effects from the financial sanctions levied against Russia that have made some foreign buyers reluctant to buy energy products from Russia.

Oil jumps, Brent above $116/bbl as supply issues persist (Reuters) - Oil prices extended their rally on Thursday, with Brent rising above $116 a barrel, as trade disruption and shipping issues from Russian sanctions over the Ukraine crisis sparked supply worries while U.S. crude stocks fell to multi-year lows. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and their allies including Russia have decided to maintain an increase in output by 400,000 barrels per day in March despite the price surge, ignoring the Ukraine crisis during their talks and snubbing calls from consumers for more crude. Brent crude futures LCOc1 rallied to $116.83 a barrel, the highest since August 2013. The contract was at $116.60 a barrel, up $3.67 by 0112 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude CLc1 was at $113.01 a barrel, up $2.41 after touching a fresh 11-year high of $113.31 a barrel. "The White House ratcheted up pressure on Russia with the announcement that it will apply export controls targeting Russian oil refining," ANZ analysts said in a note. "This raises concerns that Russian oil supplies will continue to hit constraints." The market was reacting to the latest round of sanctions by Washington on Russia's oil refining sector that raised concerns that Russian oil and gas exports could be targeted next. So far, it has stopped short of targeting Russia's oil and gas exports as the Biden administration weighs the impacts on global oil markets and U.S. energy prices. Russia is the world’s No. 3 oil producer and the largest exporter of oil to global markets, according to the International Energy Agency. Russian crude and oil products exports reached 7.8 million barrels per day in December, the agency said.

Oil rises to the highest since 2008 before turning lower - U.S. oil surged to the highest level since 2008 Thursday before reversing course as the market weighs supply disruptions from Russia against a possible Iran nuclear deal. West Texas Intermediate crude futures, the U.S. oil benchmark, traded as high as $116.57 per barrel, a price last seen on Sept. 22, 2008. International benchmark Brent crude hit $119.84, the highest level since May 2012. Prices later turned negative, and traded lower throughout the afternoon. WTI ended the day 2.65% lower at $107.67 per barrel, while Brent declined 2.19% to $110.46 per barrel. Russia's invasion of Ukraine has been driving the narrative for oil, sending prices surging. A possible deal with Iran has been one factor cited that could bring some immediate relief for a very tight market. "Unless there is a palpable thawing in tension in the form of concessions from either side and sanctions are lifted and/or Iran is allowed back to the market pronto so it can start selling its oil from storage until production is ramped up the risk premium is not expected to deflate markedly," brokerage PVM said Thursday in a note to clients. Despite Thursday's decline both contracts are still solidly in the green for the week. WTI is up around 19%, while Brent has advanced 14%. The oil market was already tight prior to Russia's invasion of Ukraine, and with countries now shunning oil from key producer Russia, traders are worried that supply shortfalls will follow. On Monday, Canada said it was banning Russian oil imports, but so far it's the only nation to target Russia's energy complex directly. Still, there are ripple effects, including that buyers will decide to shun Russian oil to avoid any possible risk of violating sanctions.

Oil touches 14-year high, drops due to Iran deal prospects - Oil fell on signs that high-stakes talks to revive a nuclear deal with Iran may soon conclude, potentially raising supply as traders increasingly shun Russian crude. West Texas Intermediate dropped to settle above $107 after touching $116, the highest since 2008, on Thursday. Brent nearly reached $120 before pulling back. Oil swung through a $10 range during the session as most major oil companies continue to implement a de-facto ban against Russian crude. The rally cooled after reports surfaced suggesting Iran may be close to signing an agreement. U.S. and European officials have also said a deal is close, but that there are still sticking points. Crude markets have experienced an extraordinary run of volatility since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine unleashed further uncertainty into global oil markets. JP Morgan & Co. said Brent could skyrocket to as high as $185 by the end of this year if current conditions continue. Buyers have steered clear of doing business with Russia as the U.S and others seek to isolate Russia from financial markets. Traders are offering Russia’s flagship crude at a record discount in an attempt to attract buyers. “The market is selling off due to hopes of Iran deal coming in the next few days along with comments from Germany that they do not want to put an embargo on Russian crude,” s “But the selloff is fairly shallow because the market is self-sanctioning Russian crude and effectively taking 3 million barrels of crude off the market.” Oil markets had already tightened significantly prior to the invasion, after economies rebounded strongly from the pandemic. Surging energy costs have added to inflationary pressures on the global economy, boosting the prices of everything from gasoline at the pump to diesel used by industrial consumers. The International Energy Agency has warned that global energy security is under threat while a planned emergency release of crude reserves by the U.S. and its allies has done little to quell market fears. U.S. lawmaker support for an outright ban of oil and gas imports is growing with Democratic House Speak Nancy Pelosi saying she’s “all for” a bipartisan draft bill to cut off Russian supplies to the U.S. The American Fuel and Petrochemical Manufacturers “fully supports the suspension of all future purchases of crude oil and petroleum products from Russia,” the trade group said in a letter to legislators. The White House reiterated it’s not interested in a Russian oil ban on Thursday. German Economy Minister Robert Habeck is also against the idea of a ban on imports of Russian energy. Prices West Texas Intermediate for April delivery fell $2.93 to settle at $107.67 a barrel in New York. Brent for May settlement dropped $2.47 to settle at $110.46 a barrel. Despite the market turmoil, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies are sitting on the sidelines. The group stuck with the 400,000 barrel-a-day production increase that was scheduled for April and wrapped up a Wednesday meeting in a record time of just 13 minutes, delegates said.

JPMorgan says $185 oil is in view if Russian supply hit persists - Brent crude could end the year at $185 a barrel if Russian supply continue to be disrupted, JPMorgan Chase & Co wrote in a note Thursday. Oil prices have skyrocketed, with Brent crude approaching $120 earlier Thursday as traders shun Russian oil after Moscow invaded Ukraine. U.S. President Joe Biden is facing calls to ban Russian imports of energy but so far has not imposed full blown sanctions on oil. Currently, 66% of Russian oil is struggling to find buyers, JP Morgan analysts including Natasha Kaneva said in the note. In the short term, the scale of the supply shock is so large that oil prices need to reach and stay at $120 a barrel for months to incentivize demand destruction, the analysts said, assuming there would be no immediate return of Iranian crude barrels. "As sanctions have widened and the shift to energy security takes on an urgent priority, there will likely be ramifications for Russian oil sales into Europe and the US, potentially impacting up to 4.3 million barrels per day," the analysts wrote. The bank maintained its price forecast, which calls for Brent to average $110 a barrel in the second quarter, $100 in in the third quarter and $90 in the fourth quarter. Without a return of Iranian barrels to the market, the bank expects oil prices to average $115 in the second quarter, $105 in the third quarter and $95 by the fourth quarter.

'Economic destruction' may lie ahead as oil prices push higher, analyst says -Oil prices are spiraling higher on supply concerns as the Russia-Ukraine crisis develops, and this could lead to demand destruction and an economic recession, according to an oil analyst. "I'm concerned that we don't have enough oil at all here, and we need to go to $120 to $150 [per barrel], and then we get into economic destruction," said Paul Sankey of Sankey Research. The firm sees oil trading between $100 and $150 per barrel until the situation in Ukraine is resolved, according to a research note. International benchmark Brent crude futures jumped 3.24% to $116.59 per barrel, after earlier crossing the $119 level. U.S. crude futures climbed 3.26% to $114.21 per barrel. Oil cargoes from Russia "simply aren't moving" following the invasion and news of sanctions, despite lower prices, Sankey told CNBC's "Squawk Box Asia" on Thursday. "There's a major, physical, immediate outage that caught an already tight market with very low inventories," he said. Everyone is worried that the elevated prices will be highly recessionary, destroy oil demand and slow down many economies, he added. Despite the extreme oil price moves, Sankey suggested that it may have been the right call for OPEC and its allies to stick to their small production increase in April as planned. "The scale of the emergency here is so severe that you probably don't want to be doing what the Western governments are doing, which is … releasing emergency stocks, leaving yourself with even lower stocks," he said. "By the same token, if Saudi and the UAE run down their spare capacity, well, you don't know what's going to happen next," he added. Pointing to countries such as Libya and Iraq, Sankey said "any risky supply source might go missing," and oil prices could then leap to $200 per barrel. OPEC+ is "probably just sitting on their hands here, to see how this plays out," he said.

Oil rises above $112 as Ukraine conflict offsets Iran supply hope - Oil rose above $112 a barrel on Friday in a volatile session as fears over disruption to Russian oil exports in the face of Western sanctions offset the prospect of more Iranian supplies in the event of a nuclear deal with Tehran. Signs of an escalation in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, with reports of a fire at a Ukrainian nuclear power plant, spooked markets before authorities said the fire in a building identified as a training centre had been extinguished. Brent crude rose as high as $114.23 a barrel and by 1050 GMT was up $1.97, or 1.8%, at $112.43. US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) added $2.21, or 2.1%, to $109.88 after touching a high of $112.84. "Russia's invasion of Ukraine means that fears over supply will remain front and centre," said Stephen Brennock of oil broker PVM, though he added that there is "a new sense of urgency" to revive the Iranian nuclear deal. Crude oil hit its highest in a decade this week and prices are set to post their strongest weekly gains since the middle of 2020, with the US benchmark up more than 18% and Brent 13%. On Thursday prices swung in a $10 range but settled lower for the first time in four sessions as investors focused on the revival of the Iran nuclear deal, which is expected to boost Iranian oil exports and ease tight supplies. Still, Iran's Foreign Minister Hossein Amirabdollahian said on Friday that the west's "haste" to reach a nuclear agreement "cannot prevent the observance of Iran's red lines", including economic guarantees. Oil prices are rising on fears that western sanctions over the Ukraine conflict will disrupt shipments from Russia, the world's biggest exporter of crude and oil products combined. Trading activity for Russian crude has slowed as buyers hesitate to make purchases because of sanctions against Russia while US President Joe Biden comes under growing pressure to ban US imports of Russian oil. More oil supplies are set to be added from a coordinated release of 60 million barrels of oil reserves by developed nations, agreed this week. Japan said on Friday that it plans to release 7.5 million barrels of oil.

Oil Rally Explodes As US Mulls Russia Crude Ban, Saudis Hike Selling Price -- Crude prices posted double-digit weekly gains and closed at their highest in at least nine years after the White House said it was considering a ban on Russian oil imports, adding to the worries of a market already hyped up about sanctions on one of the world’s largest energy exporters. The escalating war in Ukraine and the West’s retaliation with more financial punishments on Moscow further fueled Friday’s crude. Another catalyst was Saudi Arabia’s announcement of a record hike in the selling price for its crude. U.S. crude’s West Texas Intermediate, or WTI, benchmark settled up $8.01, or 7.4%, at $115.68 a barrel, its highest close since 2008. For the week, U.S. crude was up about 26%, its biggest weekly gain since March 2020. Global oil benchmark Brent was up $7.65, or 6.9%, at $118.11 a barrel. For the week, Brent rose 21% for its biggest weekly gain since April 2020. WTI has risen some 54% since the year began and Brent about 52%. Crude’s rally saw a dramatic surge this week on worries that a litany of sanctions against Russia for its invasion of Ukraine would severely impact energy exports from Moscow, which provides some 10% of the world’s oil needs and 40% of Europe’s gas requirements. The White House said on Friday it was considering banning Russian oil imports to add to the global community’s isolation of Moscow over the war in Ukraine. No decision has been made on the matter, it, however, said. Biden administration officials have said over the past week that they did not wish to act rashly and ban oil Russian exports, which could dramatically raise energy prices for Americans already paying the most for fuel since the 2008 financial crisis. Saudi Arabia’s state-owned oil company Aramco (SE:2222), meanwhile, announced the highest hike ever in the official selling price, or OSP, to Asia, raising the premium for a barrel of Arab light crude meant for April delivery by $4.95 versus the Oman/Dubai average which it uses as its base. Aramco said its April Arab light crude oil OSP to the US would go up by $3.45. The lowest increase was for North West Europe, where the premium for April Arab light crude rose by $1.60 versus Brent, which hovered at $114 a barrel. “This is what you call naked exploitation,” John Kilduff, partner at New York energy hedge Again Capital, said, referring to Aramco’s record price hike. “We know it’s business. But at a time when the world is in a dire emergency over the Russia-Ukraine crisis and the need for affordable and higher oil supplies is more than ever, we know we can count on the Saudis to throttle our necks more than ever.”

Oil has wildest week on record with markets jolted by war — Oil posted its biggest weekly gain on record with prices swinging in a $20 range since Russia invaded Ukraine and sparked fears of a major supply crunch. Futures in New York rose by more than $24 this week, the highest weekly dollar increase on record. Oil extended gains Friday on news the Biden administration is weighing a ban on U.S. imports of Russian crude oil. Brent traded in its biggest range since the launch of the futures contract in 1988 -- eclipsing the wild swings in the global financial crisis of 2008 and when demand plunged in the coronavirus pandemic.. To lower prices, the market would need to see OPEC output or U.S. drilling activity to change meaningfully. Prices climbed early in Friday’s session after Ukrainian officials said Russian forces attacked a nuclear plant -- Europe’s biggest. While the likelihood of a major disruption to Russian supply has boosted prices this week, signs that an Iranian nuclear deal may be near added to price volatility. Conversations are taking place within the Biden administration and with the U.S. oil and gas industry on the impact banning Russian oil imports would have on American consumers and the global supply, according to people familiar with the matter. A White House spokesperson said no decision has been made. In a bid to cool prices, the International Energy Agency announced a release of emergency reserves of 60 million barrels, that has so far failed to quell supply concerns. The agency said this is an “initial release” and that it is “ready to recommend additional steps” if necessary, according to a statement Friday. JPMorgan Chase & Co. said global benchmark Brent crude could end the year at $185 a barrel if Russian supply continues to be disrupted, and some hedge funds are eyeing $200. Goldman Sachs says that without Russian barrels on the market, oil could reach $150 in the next three months. While sanctions haven’t been imposed on Russian energy exports, buyers are shunning the nation’s crude as they navigate financial penalties. Germany and the White House oppose a ban on Russian oil imports, though U.S. lawmaker support to prohibit shipments into America is growing. The physical market-- where real barrels are bought and sold-- has also rallied sharply in recent days, as traders rush to supplies at healthy premiums. Saudi Arabia raised oil prices for buyers in Asia for April crude at a record price. Europe’s diesel prompt timespread rose over $30 while BP Plc has taken a key production unit offline at Europe’s second-biggest oil-processing plant. West Texas Intermediate for April delivery gained $8.01 to settle at $115.68 a barrel in New York. Brent for May settlement rose $7.65 to settle at $118.11 a barrel. The head of the world’s atomic watchdog said his trip to Tehran on Saturday could “pave the way” for reviving the Iran nuclear deal, a pact that would see the return of official oil exports. The OPEC producer has millions of barrels of oil stored offshore that could flow quickly into a tight market. Brent remains in deep backwardation, a bullish structure where prompt barrels are more expensive than later-dated cargoes, signaling a tight supply-demand balance. The benchmark’s prompt spread was $3.97 a barrel after touching record levels in recent days.

OPEC+ Faces Reckoning on Russia - OPEC+ is doing its best to ignore the war started by one of its leading members, but it may not be able to manage it for much longer. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, oil’s surge above $110 a barrel and the resulting mayhem in financial markets barely figured in the cartel’s meeting on Wednesday. The group ratified the 400,000 barrel-a-day production increase that was scheduled for April and wrapped up in a record time of just 13 minutes, delegates said. Mexican Energy Minister Rocio Nahle tried to raise the subject of Russia, but other members of the 23-nation coalition led by Saudi Arabia swiftly moved on to other matters without any discussion, delegates said, asking not to be named because the meeting was private. Mexico’s energy ministry did not respond to a request for comment. “The group believes the current prices are driven by geopolitics and not fundamentals,” said UBS Group AG analyst Giovanni Staunovo. “But if Russian exports and production are lower at the next meeting, things might be different.” Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has triggered one of the strongest packages of economic sanctions every imposed on a major economy, but none of them target energy exports. That’s why OPEC+, which only considers the fundamentals of supply and demand at its meetings and not geopolitics, saw no need to discuss the situation, said a delegate. But there are growing signs that traders and shipowners are shying away from handling the country’s oil, even without sanctions. A cargo of Russia’s Urals crude was offered for sale at a record discount on Tuesday but found no bidders. About 70% of the country’s exports are currently “frozen” due to the risk of further sanctions or reputational damage, according to London-based consultant Energy Aspects Ltd. If this situation were to continue until the next meeting of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies on March 31, it could place Saudi Arabia and its Gulf neighbors in a tough position. On the one hand, they want to preserve the five-year alliance with Moscow, which is the heart of OPEC+ coalition. The relationship has had its ups and downs -- notably a brief but destructive price war two years ago. But it has kept its unity and is credited for saving the oil markets from the pandemic-induced slump. But the pressure from the U.S. -- a Saudi ally of even longer standing -- and other consumers to raise production faster could become too strong to ignore. The kingdom’s desired image as a responsible steward of a “balanced” oil market could be under threat if crude remains at $110 a barrel, or goes even higher. Russia’s attack on Ukraine is only a week old and the situation is still evolving rapidly. The heaviest fighting may only be beginning as the invading soldiers move closer to Kyiv and other cities. The list of companies ceasing business with or exiting Russia grows longer every day. U.S. President Joe Biden is already talking about a potential a ban on importing Russian oil and gas, a move that may force prices even higher. For all their desire to remain as a neutral and cohesive alliance, members of OPEC+ may struggle to maintain that approach. Riyadh could be under incredible pressure to pick a side.

Russia's Vladimir Putin's Message for Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman Amid Western Sanctions Over Ukraine Invasion - President Vladimir Putin spoke by phone with Saudi Arabia's Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman on Thursday, buttressing a crucial geopolitical alliance as Western sanctions batter Russia's economy. Putin's invasion of Ukraine has left Russia more economically isolated than it has been in decades, with many of its banks cut off from the global financial system and traders reluctant to handle its oil shipments. OPEC+, which is led by Saudi Arabia and Russia, largely ignored this escalating crisis at a meeting on Wednesday. But the cartel is under growing pressure to boost production to ease crude prices, a move that could potentially create tensions between Moscow and Riyadh. "Putin stressed the unacceptability of politicizing global energy supply issues" in the call, according to a statement from the Kremlin. The discussion emphasized "mutual interest in further comprehensive development of the Russian-Saudi partnership."

Iran Beckons Top IAEA Official with Nuclear Deal in Sight - Top Iranian leaders will meet on Saturday with the international official in charge of investigating their nation’s past nuclear activities, suggesting a potential solution to one of the key remaining issues preventing a reboot of Tehran’s atomic agreement with world powers. Iran has demanded the International Atomic Energy Agency conclude its stalled probe of past nuclear work as part of an agreement to reactivate the 2015 accord, which capped the Islamic Republic’s atomic program in exchange for sanctions relief. But western negotiators have said that’s not possible because the IAEA works independently and they don’t have the power to short-circuit an investigation. IAEA Director General Rafael Mariano Grossi said Wednesday that he’s nevertheless “optimistic” that his inspectors can find a solution that preserves his agency’s independence while advancing the possibility of a deal. Reviving the seven-year-old landmark nuclear agreement with Iran often referred to as the JCPOA would mean relief for global energy markets. Oil has surged to $116 a barrel amid Russia’s war on Ukraine and the reluctance of other oil-producing nations to significantly increase production. Traders have been expecting a return of Iranian barrels to global markets this year. The Persian Gulf nation, which holds the world’s No. 2 natural gas and No. 4 crude reserves, could probably raise exports by around 1 million barrels a day within months of any deal, according to traders. The original accord gave IAEA monitors unprecedented supervision over Iranian nuclear facilities, which they partially lost after the Trump administration unilaterally withdrew from the agreement to impose sweeping U.S. sanctions. The agency has been probing the source of uranium particles detected at several undeclared locations in Iran. European and U.S. diplomats have previously threatened to censure Tehran over its lack of cooperation with the IAEA, which convenes its next board meeting on March 7. Negotiators who are in their 11th month of on-and-off diplomacy in Vienna have been consulting with IAEA officials as talks wind to their conclusion, Grossi said. Diplomats, who have repeatedly blown past earlier time limits, have warned there are just days to salvage the accord. “These negotiations are coming to a decisive point,” said Grossi, whose previous attempts to advance his agency’s investigation through negotiations have failed. “We are working very hard to come to an agreement.”

Taliban halt evacuations of Afghans --The Taliban on Sunday announced that Afghans would not be permitted to leave the country without a good reason and women would be forbidden from traveling without a chaperone, rebuffing a key United States demand for lifting sanctions. “The government is obliged to find out a way to protect their people,” Taliban spokesman Zabiullah Mujahid said on Sunday during a press conference, according to The Wall Street Journal. “Especially when their path is not clear and they’re not invited. They should not dive into the unknown,” Mujahid added of the Afghan people seeking to leave the country. He also cited religious laws as the reason that women could not travel alone. The Journal added that Taliban fighters on Monday stopped people traveling on a highway from Kabul to Pakistan and at times pulled families with suitcases aside to ask about the intention of their travel. Thousands of Afghan people who were evacuated on U.S. military and private charter flights following the Taliban's takeover last year remain in third countries awaiting paperwork to be processed. While the State Department has said that it was engaging in talks with the Taliban to resolve the issues, it said it had not officially heard the information regarding barring additional departures, the Journal reported.

"Fuck it!" Russia's Final Break With the West --Celebrations have been taking place in the self-declared Republics of Donetsk and Luhansk in what is almost universally recognized Ukraine. Having declared independence eight years ago, events have now forced Russia’s hand in which these two nascent entities are now recognized by Moscow, with all the protections that come with it. One cannot help but understand why these people are celebrating.Another celebration is taking place in the USA. The State Department has achieved its main objective of seeing Nordstream 2 put on ice. American LNG producers are now popping champagne bottles as they can envision huge stacks of cash to be made by overcharging Europeans desperate for gas. The Military-Industrial Complex is chuffed as well, as the arms will continue to pour into Ukraine and into the NATO armies in its periphery.Despite assurances to the contrary, NATO is not a ‘defensive organization’. Even though American memories are short, people elsewhere remember the bombing campaign against Serbia, and the removal of Gaddafi from power in Libya. What NATO is in fact is the military arm of US hegemony, a hegemony that has seen it expand eastwards through Europe, right up to Russia’s very own borders.Russia has been invaded several times from the west since Napoleon first crossed the border to enter Imperial Russian soil in 1812. Every time since, western powers have been forced out, but have left behind devastation in their wake. This explains why Russia has sought buffers to its west ever since, with the largest buffer being its puppet regimes in eastern and central Europe during the Cold War.NATO, originally set up to counter the USSR’s expansion into Europe, was left without a raison d’etre after the fall of the Berlin Wall and the collapse of the USSR. Nevertheless, it pressed on eastwards, and thanks to the CIA and MI6, effected Colour Revolutions to put into power friendly regimes that sought NATO membership in places like Tbilisi and Kiev. Where Colour Revolutions weren’t necessary due to historical grievances against Russia, NATO missile systems pointed at Russia have been set up (Romania and Poland). For Russia, the nightmare scenario of dismemberment from the west is now tangible. You may disagree with their perspective, but what is important is HOW they view the situation. If you can’t understand their views, it is therefore impossible to talk to them, unless you are only willing to lecture to them or threaten them. And lectures on democracy and threats to their economy and existence are all that have come out of the west towards Russia recently.

Russia hits Ukraine fuel supplies, airfields in new attacks (AP) — Russia unleashed a wave of attacks on Ukraine targeting airfields and fuel facilities in what appeared to be the next phase of an invasion that has been slowed by fierce resistance. The U.S. and EU responded with weapons and ammunition for the outnumbered Ukrainians and powerful sanctions intended to further isolate Moscow. Huge explosions lit up the sky early Sunday south of the capital, Kyiv, where people hunkered down in homes, underground garages and subway stations in anticipation of a full-scale assault by Russian forces. Flames billowed into the sky before dawn from an oil depot near an air base in Vasylkiv, where there has been intense fighting, according to the town’s mayor. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s office said another explosion was at the civilian Zhuliany airport. Zelenskyy’s office also said Russian forces blew up a gas pipeline in Kharkiv, the country’s second-largest city, prompting the government to warn people to protect themselves from the smoke by covering their windows with damp cloth or gauze.

China says it stands on the side of justice and peace on Ukraine crisis - People's Daily Online - China has always stood on the side of peace and justice over the Ukraine issue, a Foreign Ministry spokesperson said Friday. Spokesperson Wang Wenbin made the remarks at a news briefing in response to a relevant question. China has always decided its own position and policy based on the merits of the matter itself, Wang noted. In the future, China will continue to make its own efforts to promote a political settlement of the Ukraine issue, and China's approach is in sharp contrast to some countries' approach that aims to create a crisis and benefit from the crisis, Wang added. "History will come to a just conclusion as to which approach is more conducive to the security and long-term stability of Europe," he said.

Sanctions cannot solve problems, FM says - People's Daily Online - State Councilor and Foreign Minister Wang Yi said that China disapproves of using sanctions as a means to solve problems and rejects unilateral sanctions that are not based on international law. Experience has shown that sanctions do not solve problems, but create new ones. They not only result in "lose-lose" or "all-lose" economic situations but also interfere with the process of a political settlement, Wang said on Saturday in a phone conversation with German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock. Wang also explained why China prevented the invoking of references to Chapter 7 of the United Nations Charter－which authorizes the use of force and sanctions－in a draft resolution on Ukraine, and vowed China would continue to play a constructive role in seeking and realizing peace. China abstained from a vote on a draft resolution on Ukraine, proposed by the United States and other countries at the UN Security Council on Friday. If the Security Council takes action, it should contribute to a political settlement of the current crisis rather than incite new confrontations, Wang said, adding that China supports all efforts that are conducive to de-escalation and a political settlement of the Ukraine issue. He said China, being a permanent member of the UN Security Council, has always fulfilled its responsibilities of safeguarding international peace and security. On the issue of European security, the legitimate concerns of all countries should be taken seriously, Wang said, adding that following five consecutive rounds of NATO's eastward expansion, Russia's legitimate security concerns should be solved in a proper way. Given that the Cold War has been over for a long time, Wang said it is necessary for NATO to reconsider its position and responsibilities. China believes the Cold War mentality based on bloc confrontation should be completely abandoned. China supports NATO, the European Union and Russia resuming dialogue and seeking to build a balanced, effective and sustainable European security mechanism so as to achieve lasting peace and stability on the continent, he said.

Facebook to restrict access to Russian state media outlets in EU | Russia-Ukraine crisis News | Al Jazeera --Facebook’s parent company Meta has announced plans to restrict access to Russian state media outlets RT and Sputnik across the European Union, as Russia pressed on with its invasion of Ukraine.Meta’s head of global affairs, Nick Clegg, tweeted on Monday afternoon that the social media company had received requests “from a number of Governments and the EU to take further steps in relation to Russian state-controlled media”.Clegg said Meta would continue to work closely with governments on the issue.“Given the exceptional nature of the current situation, we will be restricting access to RT and Sputnik across the EU at this time,” Clegg said on Twitter, without going into further detail about what the restrictions would entail.The announcement comes on the fifth day of Russia’s military assault on Ukraine, which has killed at least 352 people so far, according to the Ukrainian health ministry, and garnered widespread condemnation.Russian state-run media activity on social media platforms has emerged as a contentious issue for big tech companies during the invasion of Ukraine.Meta, Google and YouTube have taken measures in recent days to restrict Russian state media outlets from making money from ads on their sites. Twitter banned RT and Sputnik from advertising on its site in 2017.On Friday, Facebook said it had restricted Russian state media’s ability to earn money on the social media platform. The move came after Russia had announced it was partially limiting access to Facebook as the company said it refused to comply with an order from the Russian authorities to stop fact-checkers and content warning labels on its platforms.The EU said on Sunday it would ban RT and Sputnik, while Canadian telecoms operators have also stopped offering the RT channel.

How is Beijing Portraying Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine for the Chinese Public? -- Internationally, China’s position on the Ukraine crisis has been muddled. As Evan Feigenbaum has noted, Beijing has sought to straddle mutually competing – and conflicting – priorities: a strategic partnership with Russia, long-standing foreign policy principles of “territorial integrity” and “noninterference,” and a desire to limits collateral damage from Western sanctions. Even after Russia’s military assault on Ukraine, Beijing has strenuously sought to maintain this position. In his February 25 telephone call with Putin, Xi Jinping avoided the use of the term “invasion,” instead noting that “dramatic changes in the situation in eastern Ukraine have drawn great attention from the international community,” expressing the desire to see Russia and Ukraine “solv[e] the issue through negotiation” and reiterating China’s “basic position on respecting the sovereignty and territorial integrity of all countries.” State media has reflected this ambiguous stance in portraying the conflict for China’s domestic audience. The evening news reiterates Moscow’s statements describing Russian actions as a “special military operation” targeting military facilities. It shows clips of Putin asserting that Moscow’s assault are the result of NATO actions that left him no choice. However, it also repeats Ukrainian president Zelensky’s statements regarding Ukrainian death tolls. And it shows clips of explosions in urban areas and residential buildings burning. This is vastly different from the portrayal by official Russian state media outlets of the conflict, which has shown images of quiet and calm Ukrainian streets, and little to no impact on civilian life. Why is this important? First, it underlines the extent to which Beijing and Moscow are not in complete alignment. And that raises the question as to whether there may indeed be practical limits to China’s professed “no limits” friendship with Russia. Reports are emerging that at least two Chinese state-owned banks have restricted financing for Russian commodity purchases. Second, as a result of Beijing’s own indecision, ordinary Chinese citizens are being presented with a somewhat blurry official portrait of who is actually at fault in the crisis. This is creating a degree of space for nationalist and anti-war voices to square off in Chinese social media.

Putin puts nuclear forces on high alert, escalating tensions (AP) — President Vladimir Putin dramatically escalated East-West tensions by ordering Russian nuclear forces put on high alert Sunday, while Ukraine’s embattled leader agreed to talks with Moscow as Putin’s troops and tanks drove deeper into the country, closing in around the capital. Citing “aggressive statements” by NATO and tough financial sanctions, Putin issued a directive to increase the readiness of Russia’s nuclear weapons, raising fears that the invasion of Ukraine could lead to nuclear war, whether by design or mistake.The Russian leader is “potentially putting in play forces that, if there’s a miscalculation, could make things much, much more dangerous,” said a senior U.S. defense official, speaking on condition of anonymity to discuss rapidly unfolding military operations. Putin’s directive came as Russian forces encountered strong resistance from Ukraine defenders. Moscow has so far failed to win full control of Ukraine’s airspace, despite advances across the country. U.S. officials say they believe the invasion has been more difficult, and slower, than the Kremlin envisioned, though that could change as Moscow adapts.

Russia's nuclear triad put on high alert: defense ministry - (Xinhua) -- Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu informed President Vladimir Putin on Monday that the country's nuclear deterrence forces have begun combat duty with reinforced staff. Shoigu informed Putin that "the duty shifts of control units of the strategic rocket forces, the Northern and Pacific fleets, and the long-range aviation command have started to carry out the combat duty with increased capacity," Russia's RIA Novosti news agency cited the ministry as reporting. Putin ordered the country's deterrence forces to be placed on "a special mode of combat duty" in a Sunday meeting with top defense officials.

Russia Says Heightened Nuclear Alert Was Entirely The Fault Of UK's Foreign Secretary - The White House said Monday that the US sees "no reasons” to change its nuclear alert levels after Russian President Vladimir Putin placed Russia’s nuclear forces on a "special" alert. According to Interfax, Russia’s Defense Ministry said Monday that its nuclear missile forces in its Northern and Pacific fleets have been placed on "enhanced combat duty" in response to Putin’s order."We are assessing President Putin’s directive and at this time, we see no reasons to change our own alert levels," White House Press Secretary Jen Psaki told reporters. Later in the day, President Biden was asked if Americans should worry about nuclear war, to which he simply replied, "no." Psaki claimed that the US and NATO had no "appetite or desire" for a conflict with Russia even as the Western powers are pledging to funnel more weapons into Ukraine and have imposed a series of harsh sanctions on Russia. According to BBC, the Kremlin later explained its change in nuclear forces posture was due to comments made by UK Foreign Secretary Liz Truss:Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said "unacceptable" remarks were made about possible "clashes" between Nato and Moscow over Russia's attack on Ukraine.It is unclear precisely which comments by Ms Truss Russia objects to. On Sunday, she said if Russia was not stopped, other states may be threatened and it could end in conflict with Nato. A Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office source told the BBC: "I don't think anything Liz has said warrants that sort of rhetoric or escalation."

No breakthrough at Ukraine talks as Russian assault continues- The first round of Ukraine-Russia talks aimed at ending the fighting between Moscow and its neighbour have concluded with no immediate agreements. The talks took place near the Belarus-Ukraine border on Monday as Russian troops continued their attack on Ukrainian cities – including the second-largest, Kharkiv – on the fifth day of Russia’s invasion. Vladimir Medinsky, who headed the Russian delegation, said the two sides “found certain points on which common positions could be foreseen”. Another round of talks was agreed to, Medinsky said. Russian Deputy Defence Minister Colonel General Alexander Fomin (L) and Russian ambassador to Belarus Boris GryzlovRussian Deputy Defence Minister Colonel General Alexander Fomin (left) and Russian Ambassador to Belarus Boris Gryzlov [Kholodilin/BelTA/Handout via Reuters] Mykhailo Podolyak, a top adviser to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, gave few details except to say that the talks focused on a possible ceasefire and that a second round could take place “in the near future”. “The next meeting will take place in the coming days on the Polish-Belarusian border, there is an agreement to that effect,” Medinsky said. Al Jazeera’s Jonah Hull, reporting from Lviv in western Ukraine, said it was “no surprise” that a breakthrough hadn’t been reached, and there was “no sign that either side has moved their goalposts”. “The two delegations came out of five hours of talks. The Russian and Ukrainian sides had identified some priority topics on which they have outlined certain decisions,” he added. “It isn’t clear what those priority topics may be … but the Ukrainian side, they’re looking for an immediate ceasefire and the immediate withdrawal of Russian troops … and the Russian side, they’re looking for guarantees about Ukraine’s neutrality and that it would never join NATO.”

Ukraine and Russia Fail to Agree on Cease-Fire, as Moscow Shelling Kills Civilians – WSJ —Talks between Russia and Ukraine on a potential cease-fire ended without any immediate agreement on Monday as Moscow intensified its assault, killing at least 10 civilians in a shelling attack on residential neighborhoods in the eastern city of Kharkiv and pursuing efforts to seize the capital, Kyiv. Ukrainian and Russian negotiators, who met in Belarus just inside its border with Ukraine, were returning to their capitals for consultations and agreed to meet again in coming days on the Polish-Belarusian border. Both delegations said the five-hour meeting led to some progress ahead of the next round of talks. The talks, on the fifth day of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, convened after Russian forces have struggled to make headway in most of the country, failing so far to take any of Ukraine’s major cities as they faced fierce resistance, particularly around Kyiv. Russia was pouring large reinforcement convoys across the border on Monday, in what could be preparation for a renewed push on Kyiv and an attempt to besiege it. On Monday night, it also fired an Iskander ballistic missile at the Brovary suburb of the Ukrainian capital, local officials said. Russia, facing difficulties on the battlefield and under mounting economic sanctions, appears to be preparing a possible escalation of its war on Ukraine. In an indication that Moscow may be shifting to a more destructive approach of targeting civilian areas, two residential neighborhoods of Kharkiv, Ukraine’s second-largest city, came under heavy shelling on Monday, likely by multiple rocket launchers. At least 10 civilians were killed and more than 40 injured, with the toll likely to grow because continued shelling made it impossible for rescue workers to reach all the damaged areas, said Kharkiv Gov. Oleh Synehubov. “It’s a war crime,” he said. Most of Kharkiv’s residents are Russian-speakers, the population whose rights Moscow says it wants to protect through its military operation. The city’s mayor, Ihor Terekhov, said that the fatalities included four residents who had just walked out of the shelter to get some water and a family of two parents and three children who were incinerated alive when a Russian rocket hit their car. “It’s not just a war, it’s murder,” he said.

Russian forces shell Ukraine’s No. 2 city and menace Kyiv (AP) — Russian forces shelled Ukraine’s second-largest city on Monday, rocking a residential neighborhood, and closed in on the capital, Kyiv, in a 40-mile convoy of hundreds of tanks and other vehicles, as talks aimed at stopping the fighting yielded only an agreement to keep talking. The country’s embattled president said the stepped-up shelling was aimed at forcing him into concessions. “I believe Russia is trying to put pressure (on Ukraine) with this simple method,” Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said late Monday in a video address. He did not offer details of the hourslong talks that took place earlier, but said that Kyiv was not prepared to make concessions “when one side is hitting each other with rocket artillery.” Amid ever-growing international condemnation, Russia found itself increasingly isolated five days into its invasion, while also facing unexpectedly fierce resistance on the ground in Ukraine and economic havoc at home. For the second day in a row, the Kremlin raised the specter of nuclear war, announcing that its nuclear-capable intercontinental ballistic missiles, submarines and long-range bombers had all been put on high alert, following President Vladimir Putin’s orders over the weekend. Stepping up his rhetoric, Putin denounced the U.S. and its allies as an “empire of lies.”

Multinationals flee Russia, punishing Moscow -- Large multinational companies are fleeing Russia, joining a large swath of the international community in moving to isolate the nation in response to its brutal invasion of Ukraine. Oil and gas giants BP and Shell announced they are leaving Russia after spending decades making investments worth billions of dollars in the country, while several U.S. companies are halting all shipments to Russia. The exodus is expected to continue as more businesses weigh the reputational and financial risks of doing business with Russian President Vladimir Putin. Experts say that if energy firms are willing to forfeit huge sums by pulling out of Russia, industries with much less to lose will soon follow suit. “I think corporate executives, in addition to considering political risk, are genuinely outraged by what Russia has done,” said Bill Reinsch, the Scholl chair in international business at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, adding that he is surprised by just how quickly companies have made the call to leave Russia. These decisions are driven in part by enormous public pressure to disown the Russian government and also by the sweeping sanctions imposed by the U.S. and its allies that severely complicate companies’ ability to do business with Russian entities. Shell on Monday said that it will abandon stakes in Russian state-owned energy projects that are worth roughly $3 billion. The Dutch company noted that the move will hurt the value of its assets and “lead to impairments.” "We are shocked by the loss of life in Ukraine, which we deplore, resulting from a senseless act of military aggression which threatens European security," Shell CEO Ben van Beurden said in a statement. That announcement came after BP, a longtime defender of Putin, said it would desert its 20 percent stake in Russian state-owned energy firm Rosneft. The move could cost BP as much as $25 billion if the oil giant is forced to write off the investment, as selling it could prove difficult under strict sanctions.

UN: Half a million Ukrainians have fled country as refugee numbers are 'rising exponentially' Some 520,000 Ukrainians have fled their home since the start of Russian invasion, the UN High Commissioner for Refugees said Monday, adding that refugee totals are expected to run in the millions, taxing the resources of neighboring counties. The figure has grown 10 times in just last week, when the UN High Commissioner for Refugees on Friday estimated that 50,000 Ukrainians had left the country. Russia launched its invasion on Feb. 24. “This figure has been rising exponentially hour after hour, literally since Thursday. I have worked in refugee crises for almost 40 years, and I have rarely seen such an incredibly fast rising exodus of people,” Commissioner Filippo Grandi said in a speech before the UN Security Council. The majority of refugees — over 280,000 — have fled to Poland, while 94,000 have crossed the border into Hungary, roughly 40,000 are in Moldova, 34,000 are in Romania, 30,000 are in Slovakia, while Grandi said tens of thousands have landed in other European countries. Other estimates indicate as many as 100,000 Ukrainians may be internally displaced. “We're currently planning, I repeat planning, for up to 4 million refugees in the coming days and weeks. Such a rapid increase would be a huge burden for receiving states and would no doubt stress reception systems and related resources,” he said. “Like all countries, hosting refugees, and around the world, they cannot be left alone to shoulder this responsibility.” Packed roadways stretched for dozens of miles last week as residents sought to flee Kyiv, and U.S. intelligence agencies have assessed that anywhere from 1 million to 5 million Ukrainians could be displaced as a result of the invasion.

Russian Armed Forces Will Continue Ukraine Op Until They Achieve Their Goals, Shoigu Says - The Russian military and their Donetsk and Lugansk People's Republic allies began a large-scale military operation aimed at demilitarising Ukraine last Thursday. The operation began after weeks of escalating shelling, mortar, sniper and sabotage attacks by the Ukrainian armed forces and ultra-nationalist volunteer battalions in the Donbass.The main goal of the Russian military operation in Ukraine is the defence of the country against a military threat created by the West, and Russian forces will continue the mission until they reach their stated aims of demilitarising and denazifying the country, defence minister Sergei Shoigu has said.Speaking at a briefing Tuesday, Shoigu said that the Russian military was not out to "occupy" Ukrainian territory, and emphasised that troops were doing everything possible to preserve the lives of civilians, including by limiting strikes only to military objects using precision weapons."The main thing for us is to protect the Russian Federation from the military threat posed by Western countries, which are trying to use the Ukrainian people in their own battle against our country," he said.Shoigu praised the armed forces for their "courage and heroism, and the conscientious and professional carrying out of their assigned tasks" in the course of the operation.Unfortunately, the defence minister said, the Ukrainian side has shown in places that it has no qualms about using civilians as human shields, including by deploying artillery systems, heavy guns and large-calibre mortars near residential areas, schools and kindergartens.Shoigu also announced plans to hold a 'First International Antifascist Congress' in August, with its goal being to "unite efforts of the international community in the fight against the ideology of Nazism, neo-Nazism in any form of its manifestation in the modern world".

Australia to send “lethal aid” to Ukrainian armed forces - -With full bipartisan support from the Labor Party opposition, Prime Minister Scott Morrison substantially escalated Australia’s involvement in the unfolding war crisis in Europe,announcing yesterday that his Liberal-National Coalition government will send “lethal aid” to Ukrainian military forces.Australia was already one of the most vociferous backers of the US-NATO attempts to exploit Russia’s reactionary invasion to intensify a longstanding confrontation with Moscow, and also China. With Morrison’s announcement, the country is now directly involved in a conflict that threatens to spiral out of control and ignite a European-wide or even a world war.The timing makes clear the extent to which the Australian political establishment is marching in lockstep with the US administration of President Joe Biden. Morrison confirmed the expanded Australian intervention after the US announced it would send an extra $US350 million worth of US armaments to Ukrainian forces, while its NATO partner Germany pledged 1,000 anti-tank weapons and 500 Stinger surface-to-air missiles.The flooding of the country with US-NATO arms is aimed at escalating the conflict. It is directed against any diplomatic resolution, ahead of talks between Russian and Ukrainian authorities in Belarus later today.

China suggests how Russia and Ukraine can make peace —  -- Moscow and Kiev’s top officials must sit down at the negotiating table to establish a path to de-escalating aggression, one of Beijing’s top diplomats has said, as Russia’s armed forces continue to attack Ukraine. Speaking on Monday at an emergency session, China’s permanent representative to the UN, Zhang Jun weighed in on how he believed tensions between the two former Soviet Republics could be eased.“The most important thing right now is to return to the track of diplomatic negotiations and [create] a political settlement as soon as possible to help de-escalate the situation,” he claimed.According to the diplomat, “China supports direct dialogue and negotiation between Russia and Ukraine,” which he insists is the definitive way to resolve the conflict. Zhang also said that the international community should “prioritize regional peace, stability and the universal security for all.”His remarks come after Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered military action against Ukraine last Thursday. It followed just hours after the leaders of the recently recognized breakaway Donetsk and Lugansk People’s Republics appealed to the Kremlin for assistance in relation to what they believed was a spike in “aggression” from Kiev.Putin insisted that the offensive aims to “demilitarize” the country and rid it of “Nazi” elements. Shortly after the Russian president’s televised address, a series of explosions hit strategic military installations and airfields in Ukraine.Several blasts have been reported across the country since, with footage circulating online purporting to show a large explosion at Kharkov’s government regional headquarters on Tuesday. A number of commentors online claim that it is the result of a Russian strike, while others argue that the missile came from Ukraine's armed forces.Beijing has previously blamed the US for inflaming the hostilities which led to Moscow’s incursion into its neighbor. Speaking last Thursday, China’s Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Hua Chunying dubbed Washington’s officials as “the [main] culprit of current tensions.”“If someone keeps pouring oil on the flames while accusing others of not doing their best to put out the fire, such kind of behavior is clearly irresponsible and immoral,” Hua claimed.

Russian military warns of strikes against facilities in Kyiv, according to statement via state media The Russian military said Tuesday it will carry out strikes against the facilities in Kyiv, warning civilians living near the areas to leave.The Russians will target the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) and the 72nd Main Center for Information and Psychological Operations (PSO) in Kyiv, the Russian defense ministry said in a statement Tuesday via Russian state news agency TASS. "In order to suppress information attacks against Russia, the technological facilities of the SBU and the 72nd main PSO center in Kyiv will be hit with high-precision weapons," the statement said, according to TASS. "We call on Ukrainian citizens attracted by Ukrainian nationalists to carry out provocations against Russia, as well as residents of Kyiv living near relay nodes leave their homes."Speaking about the "relay nodes," CNN's Clarissa Ward said, "we understand that to mean communications towers. So large antennas, things of that nature." "This is not a surprise in a sense that people here have been bracing themselves for an uptick in the Russian onslaught. Up until now, most attacks have really been targeting the outskirts of the city. But now it appears that things will move to the center of the capital as so many had feared," Ward said.A massive 40-mile-long Russian military convoy — made up of armored vehicles, tanks, towed artillery and other logistical vehicles — has reached the outskirts of Ukraine's capital, Kyiv, according to satellite images from Maxar Technologies. Russia has repeatedly claimed it is not hitting civilian infrastructure in Ukraine. But social media videos, photos and satellite images analyzed and geolocated by CNN confirm that on several occasions densely populated areas have been hit by Russian forces.In the past two days, accelerated strikes on the second-largest city of Kharkiv that have struck civilians suggest Russia is shifting toward a far less-restrained bombing campaign, in contrast with its earlier attacks that were more focused on military targets.The UN says that at least 102 civilians have been killed across the country and 304 injured, though those figures are likely to underestimate the true toll.

As Russian Bombs Turn Kyiv Into a War Zone, Residents Scramble to Escape – WSJ - Vadym Osovsky, a 39-year-old Ukrainian, decided to leave Kyiv with his family on Friday after Russian rockets and paratroopers attacked a nearby military airport and a bridge leading into the city center was destroyed.Mr. Osovsky drove for more than 50 hours to the border with Slovakia. Since Ukraine’s government has banned men under 60 from leaving the country amid a general mobilization aimed at resisting the Russian invasion, Mr. Osovsky said goodbye to his family at the last checkpoint before their passports were stamped. The Osovsky family is among the thousands of people to have fled Kyiv since the Russians invaded Ukraine last Thursday.Ukraine’s capital of Kyiv has suffered the brunt of the Russian assault on Ukraine, turning swaths of the ancient city of three million into a war zone and forcing thousands of residents to flee to Ukraine’s western borders.“We were hoping rockets, the artillery would stop, but it only got worse,” said Mr. Osovsky, who moved to Kyiv from an area in eastern Ukraine that had been taken by pro-Russian militants in 2014. “I’ve already seen how this kind of war ends. War can end only very badly.”Since popular protests that ousted a pro-Russian president a decade ago and set the country on course toward westward integration, Kyiv has become a symbol of Ukraine’s defiance of Russian intimidation.But Russia’s attacks on the capital city—aimed at decapitating the pro-Western Ukrainian government—have left residents caught between a life-or-death choice between remaining in the city and escaping to safety.For many, even after leaving the city, the trip was fraught with danger. Abandoned cars littered the median strip of the main roads out of Kyiv after breaking down or running out of gas. People were standing on the side of the road trying to hitch a ride west, said others who made the trip.Amid the jam of vehicles leaving the city center, traffic moved at five to 10 miles an hour for long parts of the day. Lines at gas stations snaked hundreds of meters along the road, and motorists sped west down eastward-bound lanes, dodging armored vehicles and trucks hauling surface-to-air rockets toward the city. Shops were closed, and people rode bikes or walked on the roads leading west.Since the first wave of evacuees left the city, violence has intensified in Kyiv. Over the weekend an explosion carved a crater in the ground at the base of a 10-floor apartment block and blasted through scores of apartments, blowing out windows on either side. The windows of a kindergarten 50 yards from the blast were also shattered.

Russian forces land in Kharkiv after devastating civilian bombardment -- Ukrainian officials reported more civilians were killed Wednesday, as Russia forces intensified its bombing campaign on Ukrainian cities. President Volodymyr Zelensky has denounced attacks on civilians, calling Tuesday's striking of the central square in Kharkiv an act of state terrorism. The bombardment of civilian areas and the miles-long armored Russian military convoy nearing Kyiv, appear to herald a new, more brutal phase of fighting after six days of stiff Ukrainian resistance. A child was among four people killed in a Russian missile strike on their homes near an air base in Zhytomyr, west of Kyiv, said Anton Gerashchenko, adviser to Ukraine's interior minister, on Telegram.

• Ukrainian authorities said about 8:30pm ET Russian airborne troops had landed and engaged in heavy fighting with Ukrainian forces in Kharkiv, which has been encircled after one of the worst days of civilian shelling during this war.
• Ukrainian authorities claimed they had foiled an assassination plot against Zelensky by a unit of elite Chechen special forces, in part thanks to tips from members of Russia's Federal Security Service who do not support the war.
• The Russian military launched missiles at Kyiv's TV tower after saying it would strike targets tied to "information attacks" from Ukraine's security services, temporarily taking TV channels off air.
• Ukrainian officials said a missile hit the nearby Babyn Yar Holocaust Memorial site, killing at least five people. "To the world: what is the point of saying 'never again' for 80 years, if the world stays silent when a bomb drops on the same site of Babyn Yar?" Zelensky tweeted.

Meanwhile, Russian forces have entered the southern city of Kherson, but Ukraine still the controlled city administrative buildings, according to Ukraine's Interior Ministry. The southeastern port city of Mariupol was surrounded by Russian troops and "has practically no electricity and centralized heating,"according to the mayor. A senior Pentagon official said seizing Mariupol and Kharkiv would allow Russia to cut off eastern Ukraine and pin Ukrainian forces away from Kyiv.

Russia says 498 of its soldiers have died in Ukraine - The Russian Ministry of Defense announced on Wednesday that 498 of its soldiers had died in Ukraine. Russian officials reportedly acknowledged Sunday there had been casualties, but this was the country's first time offering a specific number.That number, however, stands in stark contrast to the figures cited by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky.During a video address on Wednesday, Zelensky said that close to 6,000 Russian soldiers had died within six days. ​​"Think of this number: almost 6,000 Russians died. Russian military. In six days of war," the Ukrainian president said. "This is without counting the losses of the enemy last night. Six thousand. To get what? Get Ukraine? It is impossible."Russia also said that 1,597 of its soldiers had been injured in Ukraine. Meanwhile, Ukraine is reporting that more than 2,000 of its civilians have died from the conflict. "Children, women and defence forces are losing their lives every hour," Ukraine's emergency service said in a statement, according to Reuters.

Russia demanding that Ukraine demilitarize - Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov on Wednesday said Russia is demanding Ukraine demilitarize and will write a specific list of what weapons the nation cannot possess. In an interview with Al Jazeera, Lavrov said "specific types of strike weapons must be identified which will never be deployed in Ukraine and will not be created," according to a text of the interview reviewed by Reuters. The news comes amid a second round of talks between Russia and Ukraine on Wednesday. Russia is reportedly demanding the recognition of two breakaway regions in eastern Ukraine and also will also not give up the Crimean Peninsula, which the country seized in 2014. On Tuesday, more than 100 diplomats at a United Nations conference in Geneva walked out on a speech from Lavrov, who accused Ukraine of human rights violations against Russian minorities. Russia launched a large-scale invasion of Ukraine last week and on Wednesday claimed to have taken control of the first major city in the country, Kherson, which Ukrainian officials dispute. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy is pressing for a cease-fire and a withdrawal of Russian troops from Ukraine during the talks. Zelenskyy has filed an application to include Ukraine in the European Union and has also alleged human rights abuses at the International Court of Justice.

Russia increases missiles strikes but no 'significant change on the ground' -- The United States has seen “no appreciable movement” of Russian forces towards Ukraine’s capital of Kyiv since yesterday, though the Kremlin has increased its strikes on the city, a senior defense official said Wednesday. “We would assess that there essentially has been no appreciable movement closer to the city than what we briefed a couple of days ago,” the official told reporters. “Basically they remain stalled outside the city center.” Washington has also observed “an increase in missiles and artillery” targeting Kyiv’s infrastructure, with similar situations seen in Chernihiv to the north and Kharkiv to the northeast. “Both cities are continually under assault, but with no, again, appreciable movement by the Russians to take either one,” they said. The United States estimates that Russia has now sent into Ukraine 82 percent of the combat power it had staged outside the country prior to the invasion, which began last week. Those combat powers include a much watched 40-mile-long military convoy heading toward Kyiv, but the U.S. believes that movement is “stalled,” due to lack of fuel, food and fierce Ukrainian resistance, the official said. “They are not moving at any rate that would lead one to believe that they've solved their problems. So we would characterize it as stalled,” they said. “We have some indications that [Ukrainians] have also at places and at times tried to target this convoy.” In the south, Russian forces have made more headway. Kherson, where Russians have claimed they have taken control, is still “very much a contested city at this point,” the official said. There are also “preliminary indications” that Russian troops would attempt to move on the coastal city of Mariupol from the Donetsk region, with an advance “from multiple directions” to encircle the city. The official also said Russia has conducted “more than 450 missile launches,” since the assault started. The missiles are of “all stripes and sizes,” including “short-range, medium-range, surface air missiles, cruise missiles,” they added. The airspace over Ukraine, meanwhile, continues to remain contested, with both Ukrainian and Russian air and missile defense capabilities “intact and viable.”

Vessels Struck by Missiles South of Ukrainian Port -Since the outbreak of hostilities, a number of vessels have been struck by missiles within waters south of the Ukrainian port of Odessa. That’s what Dryad Global noted in its latest Triton Scout Maritime Security Threat Assessment, which was updated on February 28. “On 24 February 2022, Russian forces commenced operations within Ukraine which included blocking inward access to the Sea of Azov. All commercial operations at Ukrainian Sea Ports have since been suspended,” Dryad Global stated in the report. “Dryad Global advises all commercial operators avoid any transit or operations within the EEZ of Ukraine and Russia south of the Crimean Peninsula in the Black Sea. Commercial operations in the EEZ of Turkey, Bulgaria and Romania are unaffected at this time,” the report added. “The primary risk to vessels beyond the key risk area is the high degree of uncertainty regarding freedom of navigation in the Black Sea rather than a risk to safety of crew. It is not believed Russia holds any intent to target foreign or civilian vessels outside of the key risk areas,” Dryad Global continued in the report. On February 25, Dryad Global said reporting indicated that the Ukrainian Sea Ports authority had reported two incidents involving vessels targeted approximately 23nm ESE Odessa. Dryad Global highlighted that the incidents followed reports of an attack on February 24 involving the Marshall Islands flagged merchant vessel Yasa Jupiter, which Dryad Global said was understood to have been struck by a Russian missile about 50nm South of Odessa. On February 24, Dryad Global noted that reporting had emerged regarding the targeting of several commercial vessels offshore Ukraine.

Zelensky says first foreign fighters now in Ukraine - Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said the first round of foreign fighters has arrived in Ukraine to help defend his country against Russia’s invasion, CNN reported. In a video address posted on Facebook, Zelensky said at least 16,000 foreign troops are headed to the country “to protect freedom and life for us, and for all.” “Ukraine is already greeting foreign volunteers. [The] first 16,000 are already on their way to protect freedom and life for us, and for all,” Zelensky said in his address. Zelensky also praised Western allies for sending weaponry to Ukraine, adding that the country is receiving new “ammunition daily from our partners, from true friends. Every day we have more and more powerful weapons,” according to CNN. Zelensky's remarks come as Russia's invasion of Ukraine enters its second week and has led to a series of international sanctions against Moscow. U.S. companies in a variety of sectors have also moved to end business with Russia. According to a Ukrainian journalist group, more than 2,000 Ukrainian civilians have died during the invasion. Ukrainian citizens are fleeing the country, and many inside and outside the country are seeking to communicate through services that are intended to ensure their privacy.

Unprecedented Western sanctions strangling Russian economy --Financial sanctions imposed by the U.S. and Western allies are strangling the Russian economy. As Russian President Vladimir Putin wages war against Ukraine, his country’s economy has begun to collapse under the weight of unprecedented penalties from the Biden administration, United Kingdom, European Union and other major economic players. “Everyone in the economic sphere, the banking sphere, knows we’re in new territory here—a coordinated shutdown of a country’s economy with the strongest arrow being in the heart of the banking sector,” said George Lopez, expert on economic sanctions at University of Notre Dame’s Keough School of Global Affairs. The value of the ruble plunged Monday after the U.S and its allies took action to cut the Russian government off from roughly $600 billion in reserves held by the Central Bank of Russia and further cut Russia’s ties to the global financial system. The Western bloc banned most transactions with the Russian central bank — along with Russia’s finance ministry and foreign investment fund — blocking Putin from funds he stowed away for years to cushion the blow of sanctions. The sanctions also cut off Russian access to the U.S. dollar, the linchpin of the global financial system, as its value climbs amid global tumult. The U.S. and EU are also barring certain Russian banks from access to the Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication (SWIFT), a messaging system used by banks to conduct transactions. Roughly $300 billion of Russia’s reserves are now locked away from Putin in the U.S., Europe, and other allied countries. While Russia still holds billions of dollars worth of gold within its borders, experts say Moscow will find few willing buyers with its banks under their own crushing sanctions. “The problem is they can’t convert it into something useful if other people aren’t willing to deal with them,” Without access to its reserves, the Russian government has resorted to desperate measures to keep its economy and financial sector afloat. The Russian central bank hiked its baseline interest rate to 20 percent and banned the sale of securities held by foreigners to prevent the ruble from collapsing further. Russia also urged foreign financial firms to join a SWIFT alternative, but has seen few takers with the threat of sanctions hanging over countries who don’t toe the Western line. Russia may ultimately be powerless to prevent bank runs, skyrocketing inflation and deep, long-term economic damage. And while the U.S. and EU have made some exemptions meant to limit the damage to Russia, experts say the implications could ripple though global markets. While the U.S. has previously targeted the central banks of Venezuela, North Korea and Iran with sanctions, the country has never imposed such strict penalties on an economy the size of Russia’s, nor with the support of so many other nations. Switzerland imposing sanctions on Russia is also a massive blow to Moscow and a major turning point for a historically neutral country with a major presence in financial markets. Russian gross domestic product was roughly $1.5 trillion in 2020, making its economy slightly smaller than the state of New York’s. But Russia produces considerable proportions of the global supply of petroleum, natural gas, wheat and certain metals, giving it key leverage over Western adversaries.

Russia More Than Doubles Interest Rate To 20% To Halt Ruble Slide -- With the ruble plunging overnight after the West imposed tough new sanctions over the war in Ukraine, crashing as low as 115 against the dollar with the USDRUB last seen just south of 100... ... early on Monday, Russia's central bank more than doubled interest rates to 20% from 9.5% in an effort to halt the collapse of the ruble, which has gone into freefall. The Bank of Russia also said on Sunday that it would resume buying gold in the domestic market as it tries to shore up its finances and find ways around sanctions on its activity. "External conditions for the Russian economy have drastically changed," the Bank of Russia said in a statement. "The increase of the key rate will ensure a rise in deposit rates to levels needed to compensate for the increased depreciation and inflation risks. This is needed to support financial and price stability and protect the savings of citizens from depreciation." While the idea is that higher interest rates increase the return to investors, luring foreign capital to the country and pushing up the exchange rate, it is unlikely that investors will flood back into the "safety" of the ruble as long as sanctions are ongoing. Overnight, the Russian central bank also banned brokers from selling securities on behalf of non-residents, with an eye to halting the decline in domestic asset prices. In a statement on its website, the Bank of Russia said the foreign exchange, money and repo markets of the Moscow Exchange will open at 10 a.m. local time and that it will "evaluate the timely opening of trading in other markets depending on how the situation develops." The decision will be announced by 1 p.m. Moscow time (7 p.m. in Tokyo), and trading will start at 3 p.m. if it decides to open. At the time of writing, the market was still closed.

A Very Preliminary Look at the Partial Suspension of Russia’s Access to SWIFT by Yves Smith Some prophylactic remarks. First, even banking plumbing experts are in fog of war mode about what the announcement over the weekend, that some Russian banks, including Russia’s central bank, were to be blocked from SWIFT…but workarounds would be made so that the West could still buy oil and gas from Russia. As our Clive, who has been trying to puzzle out what this means, said, Russia excluded from SWIFT is the headline…… but “selected Russian banks” allows plenty of wriggle room…. the reporting is unforgivably vague so it’s difficult to parse as to what’s mooted here in this particular measure…. I think even the “professionals” are doing nothing more than amateur musings right now, to be honest. Second, the McCarthyite escalation is resulting in anyone who fails to fall in with a simple “Putin/Russia are the new Satan” line as being depicted as a Russia apologist. That utterly impedes taking a clinical look, as best as one can, at the positions of two parties and what their interests and moves might be.For those who have been around this site for a while, you may recall that during the 2015 Greece bailout negotiations, we concluded very early on that Greece would not prevail, based on its limited options, such as its need for continued bailouts, it having signed an agreement in February 2015 that committed it to implement the IMF “memorandum,” aka “reforms,” aka hairshirt, and the practical impossibility + huge downside of trying to launch its own currency, that it would have to submit to the Troika’s program. Far too many readers took that as siding with the financiers rather than the plucky Greeks, as opposed to a clinical assessment. The vitriol got so bad that we had to turn off comments for a while.And not only were we proven right, but the Troika made the terms harsher because prime minister Alex Tsipras held a referendum that violated Greek law for how one was to be conducted¹…..and on a moot issue, on a bailout that had already expired and procedurally could not be brought back from the dead.We have far more risk of being wrong here than in 2015 because there are vastly more moving parts plus emotions in the West plus as Clive intimated, we are in a fog of poor quality information.On top of that, the Mighty Wurlitzer is stoking emotions to a fever pitch. This is dangerous because it will limit flexibility and tend to, in fact is arguably designed to, produce overreactions. It is also depressing to see such outrage in the US over Russians killing Ukrainians, when we’ve seen virtually none over our nation-breaking in the Middle East and our support of the Saudis in their campaign against Yemen. The Chinese pointed out that those who live in geopolitical glass houses should not be throwing stones.Commentators contend that one aim in freezing Russia’s central bank out of SWIFT is to make it unable to use its dollar reserves to defend Russia’s currency. Related to that, one way for Russia’s central bank to provide dollars to Russian banks who might need them to settle at the end of the trading day would be to swap roubles for dollars or need dollars to pay off net short term dollar debt exposures if they can’t roll the debt.Yet the press reports all state that the West intends to have carveouts so that Western concerns can still buy oil and gas from Russia.I don’t understand why Russia should go along with this. If I understand the economic proposition here, the West wants Russia to continue to take dollars for energy…which it won’t let it spend. Why not just give Russia a bag of feathers for its valuable oil? They’d be just as useful.Clive independently came to a similar conclusion:It’s not, I don’t think, intended to stop Russia selling exports. Certain exports, such as some natural gas, will be allowed, well, because Germany, at least in the short-term. It’s more to stop Russia from buying imports. Almost immediately, no-one will trust they’ll get their money if they sell to Russia, they’ll want cash up-front. So that creates a fairly instant working capital crunch — importing businesses in a Russia will need to send the funds for their purchases first and then, and only if their transaction goes through, will the overseas exporter even think about shipping the goods, doubly so if the seller wants US$s.

Russia’s FX reserves slip from its grasp --The Central Bank of Russia’s substantial reserves stockpile was meant to maintain the currency’s stability in the face of market panic. The reserves — worth $630bn, as of the end of January — are made up of assets and deposits denominated in the world’s major currencies (that is, the dollar, euro, sterling and the yuan). As well as almost 2,300 tonnes of gold.The stockpile was there so that the central bank could intervene in foreign exchange markets, shoring up the rouble in the event of volatility. There’s a Jedi mind-trick aspect to building up reserves too — if markets know you’ve got a load of them, they’re less likely to challenge you to use them.The sanctions imposed by the US, EU and UK against the central bank are likely to render a lot, if not quite all, of these reserves useless. To understand what the CBR is, and isn’t, likely to have at its disposal when the banks open tomorrow morning, it’s worth taking a close look at what’s known as the “Data Template for International Reserves and Foreign Currency Liquidity”. The snapshot below was taken from the Twitter account of former Alphavillain Matthew Klein. We tried to find the official data on the central bank’s website, but it was no longer available. Securities make up a little more than half ($311bn) of what the CBR had at its disposal. According to its annual report, these assets were mostly highly rated, with just 6.8 per cent of them holding less than an A rating. Given their high ratings, most of them will probably be highly liquid and easy to sell in times of panic. But how does the Russian central bank turn these securities into cash in the event that it needs access to dollars or euros fast? Well, it needs to rely on global finance. Stopping the central bank using its securities to stabilise the rouble would, therefore, involve instructing the financial intermediaries that feature on this chain — brokers, custodians, central security depositories, foreign-exchange dealers, and correspondent banks — to freeze assets and stop acting on behalf of the central bank. Judging by its recent behaviour, there’s much to suggest the US will be willing to do just that. In recent years, Washington has often furthered its foreign policy through what’s referred to as the “weaponisation of finance”. What that has meant in practice is using the dollar’s global dominance to cut the monetary authorities of Iran, Venezuela, and (most recently and very controversially) Afghanistan off from access to their own reserves. In targeting central banks, the authorities have invoked counter-terrorist and human rights legislation, alongside the US International Emergency Economic Powers Act. The latter in particular has proven a potent measure. The most direct way to sanction the CBR will be to put it on the so-called Specially Designated Nationals list, which despite its name includes institutions not just individuals. This would bar US entities from dealing with them. When it comes to dollar access, that would put to a stop to every step of the process outlined by Mandeng.The second chunk of reserves the CBR holds are in the form of currency and deposits. These are worth $152bn. Of this $152bn, about two-thirds is held in official institutions. That includes other central banks, the Bank for International Settlements and the IMF. Central banks in the Eurosystem, where about a quarter of the CBR’s assets are held, have already frozen the central bank’s accounts. The European Central Bank has said it will implement all sanctions decided by the EU and European governments. It’s unclear how other authorities will behave. Notably China. According to the CBR’s annual report, as of the start of 2021, 14 per cent of foreign exchange reserves were held in China — the biggest share for any one state. Almost 13 per cent of the reserves are in yuan or assets denominated in yuan. Mandeng says that China may offer a means for Russia to continue trading with at least some parts the world: Russia may accept payments for its exports in renminbi and increase imports paid in renminbi from China and possibly other countries accepting renminbi. As renminbi based payments will most likely be conducted by institutions outside the immediate influence sphere of the West, this would work.

Companies head for the exit in Russia as sanctions intensify  -Energy giants BP and Shell, global bank HSBC and the world’s biggest aircraft leasing firm AerCap joined a growing list of companies looking to exit Russia on Monday, as Western sanctions tightened the screws on Moscow over its invasion of Ukraine.The West has moved to punish Russia with a raft of measures, including closing airspace to Russian aircraft, shutting out some Russian banks from the SWIFT global financial network (the Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication) and restricting Moscow’s ability to use its $630bn foreign reserves. Russia’s economy was already reeling on Monday. The rouble plunged to a record low, while the central bank doubled its key interest rate to 20 percent, and kept stock markets and derivative markets closed. Shell on Monday said it would exit all its Russian operations, including the flagship Sakhalin-2 plant in which it holds a 27.5 percent stake, and which is 50 percent owned and operated by Russian gas group Gazprom. BP, Russia’s biggest foreign investor, announced at the weekend that it was abandoning its 20 percent stake in state-controlled Rosneft at a cost of up to $25bn, cutting the British firm’s oil and gas reserves in half.Equinor, the energy firm majority owned by the Norwegian state, said it would start divesting its joint ventures in Russia.The moves put the spotlight on other Western companies with stakes in Russian oil and gas projects, such as ExxonMobil and TotalEnergies. Large parts of the Russian economy will be a no-go zone for Western banks and financial firms after the decision to cut off some of the country’s banks from SWIFT, a secure messaging system used for trillions of dollars’ worth of transactions around the world.The European arm of Sberbank, Russia’s biggest lender, faces failure, the European Central Bank warned on Monday, after a run on its deposits.British bank HSBC said it was starting to wind down relations with a host of Russian banks including the second-largest, VTB, one of those targeted by sanctions, a memo seen by Reuters showed.Even neutral Switzerland said it was adopting European Union sanctions and freezing assets of some Russian individuals and companies. It joined others by imposing sanctions on President Vladimir Putin and other officials.Some Western companies were suspending operations while others were drawing up contingency plans as they reviewed the rapidly changing landscape for business with Russia.Nasdaq Inc and Intercontinental Exchange have temporarily halted trading in stocks of Russia-based companies listed on their exchanges, their websites showed. Global auto and truck makers, including US automaker General Motors Co and Germany’s Daimler Truck, on Monday took some actions. Volkswagen suspended deliveries of cars to dealers in Russia and Volvo and GM said they would suspend exports to Russia.“Deliveries are to resume as soon as the effects of the sanctions imposed by the European Union and the United States have been clarified,” a Volkswagen spokesperson said.

Moscow Blasts US IT Giants' Censorship of Russian Media While Actively Pushing 'Hostile Propaganda' - Western governments and internet giants including Google, Microsoft, Facebook and Twitter have moved to heavily censor Russian foreign-language media outlets over the conflict in Ukraine, blocking websites, shutting down social media pages, and taking radio and television broadcasts off air.Moscow considers US IT companies' actions censoring Russian media to be "unacceptable," a Foreign Ministry spokesman has said."Separately, attention should be paid to the absolutely unacceptable behaviour of foreign, especially American, IT giants such as Google and Meta. Hostile propaganda activities are openly conducted on their social platforms, while Russian sources of information are blocked, and massive restrictions on access to domestic media are put in place," Foreign Ministry spokesman Oleg Gavrilov said in a meeting of the Russian Federation Council on Tuesday.These companies' actions not only serve as a medium for spreading disinformation, but also see them directly participating in such activities, according to the official.Accusing the US and its allies of "shamelessly inciting" a proxy war using Ukrainians to fight Russia, Gavrilov pointed to promises by Washington and others to pump new arms supplies into Ukraine, sending weapons "to those who engage in their uncontrolled distribution among the civilian population, and recruited criminals.""Throughout the eight years that have passed since the anti-constitutional coup in Ukraine in 2014, the Western curators of the regime in Kiev, led by the US, have purposely pushed it into aggression both against its own population and against our country," the spokesman suggested."Washington and its ideological allies in NATO are deeply indifferent about the fate of Ukraine, just as they have been indifferent about the lives of millions of residents of the Donbass, whom the [post-coup] authorities in Kiev hastened to officially classify as terrorists," Gavrilov added.Sputnik, RT and other Russian media resources, including those serving both domestic and foreign audiences, have come under increasing attack from Western governments, IT and social media giants in recent days, with censors taking websites offline, forcing television and radio broadcasts to shut down, and blocking channels and accounts on YouTube, Facebook, Twitter and elsewhere.

Sanctions produce chaos in Russian financial system -Russia’s financial system has been thrown into turmoil following the imposition of sweeping sanctions by the US and the European Union with the explicit aim of trying to crash its economy despite warnings the effects could spread. Seven major banks have now been excluded from the Swift international financial messaging system. In addition, the Russian central bank has been blocked from international operations to prevent it using the country’s $630 billion of foreign exchange reserves to support the currency. The rouble has fallen by around 20 percent from its already low levels and is now worth about one US cent in international markets. The Russian central bank earlier this week doubled its base interest rate to 20 percent to try and stabilize the currency. Following the announcement of sanctions, the stock market closed. There was no trading in rouble-denominated bonds and the cost of derivatives to insure against a Russian default surged to 37 percent of the bond’s face value. In a statement earlier this week, Russian central bank governor Elvira Nabiullina said: “The conditions for the Russian economy have altered dramatically. The banking sector is now experiencing a structural liquidity deficit.” In other words, there is a major problem in obtaining the money necessary to keep it functioning. The major imperialist powers have made no secret of their aims. They are determined to smash the measures put in place by the government and financial authorities to try to insulate the Russian financial system following the imposition of sanctions in 2014 in response to the incorporation of Crimea back into Russia. “Fortress Russia will be exposed as a myth,” a senior Biden official said on Monday. Yesterday, the French Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire was even more explicit. He said the West was using sanctions to wage “total economic and financial war against Russia, Putin and his government. We will provoke the collapse of the Russian economy.” This brought a sharp response from former Russian president Dmitry Medvedev, now deputy head of Russia’ security council, highlighting the enormous dangers in the present situation. “Today, some French minister has said that they declared an economic war on Russia,” he tweeted. “Watch your tongue, gentlemen! And don’t forget that in human history, economic wars quite often turned into real ones.” Le Maire said in response he should not have used the word “war.” However, he did not pull back from the assertion that the aim of the sanctions was to bring about a collapse of the Russian economy. The measures imposed so far may be escalated in the coming days and weeks. There has been considerable commentary in the financial press that they are insufficient because of the decision not to include a ban on the sales of Russian oil and gas on international markets. An article in the Wall Street Journal said it was “hard to see a complete collapse of Russia’s economy as long as it can keep selling its oil at almost $100 a barrel.” An editorial comment in the Financial Times described the exclusion of oil and gas payments from the sanctions as “regrettable” but said that, as long as Europe remained dependent on Russian energy supplies, sanctions on payments would be “pointless.” Even without the exclusion of Russian energy from the global market, the effect of the present measures is adding to the inflationary surge in the world economy. The price of crude rose to more than $100 a barrel—the highest level in eight years. In addition to oil, prices of wheat and other grains, together with key industrial metals, are also rising. The wheat price is now at its highest level since 2008.

China's SWIFT alternative may undercut US sanctions - Washington’s new sanctions against Russia were no match for President Biden’s rhetoric, leaving out the most obvious measure that the United States might take to hurt Moscow, namely exclusion from the SWIFT international payments system.Banks conduct virtually all hard-currency transactions via SWIFT, or the Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication. But a new Chinese alternative might allow Russia to conduct most of its trade in yuan rather than dollars.China’s Cross-Border International Payments System (CIPS), founded in 2015, is still under development and includes only 80 foreign banks. But there is no reason in principle that CIPS can’t substitute for SWIFT. And if Russia successfully shifts its trade payments out of the dollar system, the blow to American prestige and power would be enormous.De-dollarization of trade is under debate in Western Europe. Germany’s Manager Magazine wrote on February 14, “Exclusion from the international payment system SWIFT is considered the sharpest sword that the West could wield as an economic sanction against Russia. “However, it is a double-edged sword: the economic consequences would not only be serious in Russia, but also in Western Europe. In addition, the decoupling of Russia and China from the US dollar would be accelerated. Both countries are already working on competing payment systems.”Russia also has developed an interbank messaging system, which now overs about 20% of domestic financial payments.China’s yuan has advantages and disadvantages as a dollar substitute. It has gained about 8% against the US dollar since the Covid recession began in early 2020.China’s consumer inflation rate stands around 1% year-on-year vs. 7.5% in the US, and the yuan to some extent has acted as a hedge against dollar inflation, as I wrote onFebruary 17.

Removing Russian banks from SWIFT could be double-edged sword for Europe - (Xinhua) -- Several European countries, the United States and Canada issued a joint statement on Saturday saying they will remove some Russian banks from SWIFT, the payment system used for most international financial transactions. The expulsion, which some people believe will deal a heavy blow to the Russian economy by crippling Russian banks' ability to settle international transactions, could be bad for Europe, as it will at the same time bring energy supply shocks to the European Union (EU). That is probably why a few European countries like Germany and Italy were hesitant about endorsing it at first. SWIFT is a Belgium-headquartered global provider of secure financial messaging services. It was formed in 1973 by 239 banks from 15 countries to solve the problem of cross-border payments communication. More than 11,000 financial institutions are now using SWIFT for their financial transactions, including around 300 from Russia. According to the joint statement released Saturday, in concert with the European Commission, France, Germany, Italy, Britain and Canada, the United States is supporting the expulsion of "selected Russian banks" from SWIFT "within the coming days," so as to "further isolate Russia from the international financial system and our economies." "It will stop them (the Russian banks) from operating worldwide and effectively block Russian exports and imports," European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen tweeted on Sunday. Many media reports have predicted that such an expulsion, if endorsed for all major Russian banks, is likely to wreak havoc on Russia's financial system and economy by triggering bank runs and greatly undermining Russia's exports, and have therefore touted the expulsion as a "nuclear option." However, some experts said the move did not necessarily mean that Russian banks will be rendered incapable of conducting international transactions, as they can still finalize the process with other banks through other systems, or even by fax or Email given that SWIFT is only a messaging system. The expulsion will only make the whole process slower and costlier, they said.

Russia's SWIFT Ban: EU Should Think Twice as It's About to Shoot Itself in Foot, Journo Warns - The European Commission is seeking to block seven Russian banks from SWIFT with the nation's largest Sberbank and Gazprombank being left off the draft list, writes Bloomberg. The absence of the two banks from the proposal shows the EU is concerned about the consequences of isolating Russia, according to the media outlet."Europe buys energy, grain and minerals from Russia. These three commodity articles are not the kind that can be easily found as an alternative. Trade with Russia is today an indispensable element of the economic foundation on which the West relies. SWIFT is a system of international payments. Disconnecting Russia from the SWIFT system will mean the actual cessation of trade," says Recep Ercin, a Turkish economic commentator and journalist.SWIFT is an acronym for the Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication. It's a global payments system, which is used by over 11,000 financial institutions and companies around the world, across over 200 countries.According to Ercin, the European Commission's decision to sever Russia from SWIFT is tantamount to shooting itself in the foot, since it will mark the beginning of a very serious payment and trade crisis for Europe.The disruption of Russia's grain supplies to Europe will lead to a significant vacuum, notes economic commentator. According to the US Department of Agriculture, Russia and Ukraine combined account for one-third of the world's wheat exports and one-fifth of the world's corn. While the US could partially close the gap in Russian natural gas supplies, Washington can't take over Russia's share in grain as well as minerals in the European market, according to Ercin. "Europe is planning to reduce trade volumes with Russia, but in doing so, it must ask itself as to who will ensure the security and continuity of supplies," the Turkish journalist says.

Share Prices of Russia’s Largest Companies Drop to Pennies on the London Stock Exchange Today By Pam Martens - Russian President Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine, a nation of 44 million people, has been playing out for just seven days. But the losses Putin has suffered on the financial battlefield are already staggering. As a result of sanctions imposed by the European Commission, the U.S., Canada and the U.K., (that many other countries are now following), investing in anything connected to Russia has become a toxic idea to investors around the globe. As a result, the Moscow Stock Exchange has shuttered stock trading for the third day in a row and it’s been left up to investors to attempt to exit their Russian stocks on the London Stock Exchange. As of this morning, some of Russia’s largest companies are trading for pennies in London. As of 11:00 a.m. (London time), Russia’s giant energy company, Gazprom, was trading at 3 cents a share, a 99 percent decline from the start of the year. Russia’s largest crude oil exporter, Rosneft, was trading at 96 cents shortly after 12 noon in London. Russia’s largest natural gas company, Novatek, was trading at 61 cents at 11:30 a.m. London time. Novatek was a $238 stock in London at the beginning of the year. And, to underscore just how precarious the financial situation is for Russia, its largest bank, Sberbank, which has experienced a bank run on its foreign branches, has been trading all morning in London between a penny and five cents. Sberbank was a $16 stock in London at the beginning of the year. The largest Russian exchange-traded fund (ETF) that trades in the U.S., the VanEck Russia ETF (RSX), closed yesterday at $8.26. That’s lower than where it traded during the financial crash of 2008 and a 69 percent decline from the beginning of the year. The prices of Russian stocks in London this morning is a reflection of the fact that liquidity is drying up in anything that has the word Russia connected to it – that includes the Russian currency, the Ruble, which has been plunging in value against the U.S. Dollar since the invasion of Ukraine began on February 24. As of this morning, the Ruble continues to trade at a record low against the U.S. Dollar, now valued at less than one cent. With foreign debt sales closed to most Russian companies and Russia’s central bank’s assets frozen throughout much of the world as a result of the sanctions, it’s unclear how Putin thinks he can finance and sustain a war against a nation of 44 million people – who have clearly demonstrated over the past seven days that they don’t want him there. With the Moscow Stock Exchange (MOEX) closed for the third day in a row and its website also down (a Ukrainian hackers’ group has taken credit for that), we went to its Twitter account so see what was going on at the Exchange prior to the invasion of Ukraine. It turns out that the Exchange had plans to become a major international venue for stock trading.

EU bans most Belarus exports over Ukraine invasion | TheHill The European Union has banned most exports to Belarus over its involvement in Russia's invasion of Ukraine. On Wednesday, the EU agreed to ban 70 percent of exports from Belarus, with sanctions placed on wood, timber, steel and iron, Reuters reported. The ban also affects cement, rubber, fuels and closes loopholes for some of the existing sanctions on the nation. Along with the export bans, almost two dozen members of the Belarusian military were hit with economic sanctions. The move comes as Belarus has let Russian forces use its country as an entry point to attack Ukraine. American officials have also said Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko is preparing to send troops into Ukraine. The EU is also stopping many exports to Belarus that could be used to make weapons in areas such as advanced technologies, computers, electronics, telecoms, sensors and lasers, according to Reuters. Although the country’s banks weren’t affected in this round of sanctions, a European official said Belarusian banks being banned from the international SWIFT system is an additional step that “will come.” The move comes the same day the White House said Belarus and Russia’s defense sector would be hit with new sanctions.

Ukrainian forces need more weapons, ambassador warns senators --Ukrainian ambassador Oksana Markarova told a bipartisan group of senators Monday that her country needs more help from the United States and could run out of military supplies to fend off a Russian invasion, according to lawmakers who attended the meeting in the Capitol. Senate Majority Leader Charles Schumer (D-N.Y.), who attended the meeting with roughly a dozen Republican and Democratic colleagues, said everyone in the room was unified in support of doing more for the country, which Russian troops invaded Thursday on several fronts. “It’s no secret they need more help. They’ve got the weapons they need right now but they’re going to run out of what they need soon so we’ve got to get a supplemental [spending bill] passed quickly,” Sen. Chris Murphy (D-Conn.) told reporters after the meeting. Murphy said a looming humanitarian crisis along the Polish-Ukrainian border and dwindling military supplies are putting pressure on Congress to act quickly. Senators say the need to pass an emergency spending bill to provide weapons and humanitarian aid is becoming more important than passing sanctions legislation, something that senators were negotiating before the Presidents’ Day recess. “I think you’re talking about something in the neighborhood of $10 billion to do the job,” said Murphy, a member of the Senate Appropriations Committee. “This is the most dangerous moment since the Cuban missile crisis.” Markarova confirmed reports that Russian forces are increasingly targeting civilian buildings and warned that civilian casualties are likely to mount. “She talked about two five-story buildings being hit today full of civilians,” Murphy said. Sen. Ben Cardin (D-Md.), who also attended the meeting, said Ukrainian forces are “well-organized, doing the best they can but they need additional help.” “They’re managing their equipment as best they can. They do need more help. Absolutely. They certainly need more anti-tank and anti-aircraft type equipment because the numbers from Russia are so large,” he said. Other Ukrainian leaders on Monday pressed the House Ukrainian Caucus to back a no-fly zone over the country, warning that casualties could mushroom without stronger foreign intervention. However, senators who spoke to reporters after meeting with Markarova said they did not hear her request that the U.S. and its NATO allies impose a no-fly zone over Ukraine, which could risk a direct military confrontation with U.S. forces. Murphy earlier in the day warned that trying to impose a no-fly zone over Ukraine would be dangerous. “There’s been a lot of loose talk from smart people about ‘close air support’ and ‘no fly zones’ for Ukraine. Let’s just be clear what that is — the U.S. and Russia at war. It’s a bad idea and Congress would never authorize it,” he tweeted. Murphy later told reporters that the military conflict could quickly escalate in a dangerous way. Schumer after the meeting said there’s strong bipartisan support to help Ukraine fend off the Russian invaders. “In that room, from one end to the other, we want to help Ukraine in every way that we can and they’re valiant. They’re amazing and we’re exploring all the ways that we can help them,” he said. But one major potential complication is the need to pass an omnibus spending bill to fund the U.S. federal government beyond March 11. “The problem is we need a budget to get a supplemental,” Murphy said. “We’ve got to get serious in the next couple days about getting a budget done so that we can have a supplemental to that budget.” “I’m worried that our petty fights over the border are going to prevent us from getting a deal on a budget and thus a deal on [the] supplemental [spending bill for Ukraine,]” he added. That could delay congressional action on more assistance for Ukrain

NATO floods Ukraine with weapons -In a global weapons-running program without precedent in post-World War II history, more than 20 countries, including members of NATO and the European Union, are funneling weapons, including anti-aircraft missiles, to Ukraine for use in NATO’s proxy war with Russia. “Thousands of anti-tank weapons, hundreds of air-defense missiles and thousands of small arms and ammunition stocks are being sent to Ukraine,” bragged NATO in an official dispatch. The United States has been joined by Germany, France, Poland and the UK, as well as the majority of the European Union in sending offensive weapons to Ukraine. “Belgium, Canada, the Czech Republic, Estonia, France, Germany, Greece, Latvia, Lithuania, the Netherlands, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia, the United Kingdom and the United States have already sent or are approving significant deliveries of military equipment to Ukraine,” NATO said. US officials are openly comparing the present operation to the “rat lines” used to arm Islamic fundamentalist terrorists in the Middle East in recent decades. “On NATO territory, we should be the Pakistan,” Douglas Lute, a former lieutenant-general and American ambassador to NATO, told the New York Times, “supplying the Ukrainians as Pakistan supplied the Taliban in Afghanistan, stockpiling matériel in Poland and organizing supply lines.” The shock troops of this latest US-led proxy war will not be, as in Afghanistan, Islamic fundamentalist fighters, but the neo-Nazi forces which played a key role in Ukraine’s 2014 coup. “We have been given so much weaponry… because we perform the tasks set forth by the West, because we like to fight, and we like to kill,” Yevhen Karas, leader of the neo-Nazi terrorist organization C-14, said in early February, before the war began.

ICC prosecutor to open probe into possible war crimes in Ukraine -A International Criminal Court (ICC) prosecutor announced Monday that he will open an investigation into possible war crimes perpetrated by Russia in Ukraine. “I have reviewed the Office's conclusions arising from the preliminary examination of the Situation in Ukraine, and have confirmed that there is a reasonable basis to proceed with opening an investigation,” said Karim A. A. Khan, the prosecutor. “In particular, I am satisfied that there is a reasonable basis to believe that both alleged war crimes and crimes against humanity have been committed in Ukraine in relation to the events already assessed during the preliminary examination by the Office,” he added. Khan said that his investigation would expand as the Russia-Ukraine conflict continues to include any potential future crimes falling within the ICC's jurisdiction. Ukraine is not among the 123 parties to the ICC’s Rome Statute, which outlaws genocide, crimes against humanity, war crimes and the crime of aggression. However, the country has accepted the ICC’s jurisdiction over its territory during periods of previous Russian aggression. Khan asked in his statement for “the support of all States Parties and the international community as a whole as my Office sets about its investigations.” He said that his office will need budgetary support, voluntary contributions and personnel. “The importance and urgency of our mission is too serious to be held hostage to lack of means,” Khan said.

Russian forces occupy Ukraine nuclear plant after shelling sparks fire - Russian forces took control of Europe’s largest nuclear power plant Friday after their attack on the site sparked a fire and fears of nuclear meltdown, but seemingly released no radiation. The blaze at the Zaporizhzhia plant, located in Ukraine's southeast, was extinguished early Friday but not before it spread concerns about the potential for catastrophic fallout across the continent. Russian President Vladimir Putin, who previously raised the specter of nuclear war over Europe, said Friday he had "no bad intention" toward neighboring countries but warned against doing anything that might "escalate the situation." With the invasion entering its second week, he has intensified his assault on Ukraine and deepened a crackdown on dissent at home. Russian forces made gains in Ukraine's south and besieged major cities, worsening a grave humanitarian crisis despite some progress in talks between the two countries. The fire at the power plant, which broke out after fierce fighting between Russian troops and Ukrainian forces, was extinguished several hours after it ignited alarm across world capitals. The head of the United Nations’ atomic agency said that a Russian “projectile” hit a training center at the plant and that no radiation was released. International Atomic Energy Agency Director-General Rafael Mariano Grossi sad that Russian forces were at the plant, but the Ukrainians were in control of the reactor. Ukrainian authorities said Russian forces had “occupied” the site.

Fire Put Out at Europe's Biggest Nuclear Plant After Battle Causes Alarm (Reuters) - A huge blaze at the site of Europe's biggest nuclear power station was extinguished on Friday, and officials said the plant in southeastern Ukraine was operating normally after it was seized by Russian forces in fighting that caused global alarm. Separately, a presidential advisor said Ukraine had halted an advance on the city of Mykolayiv after local authorities said Russian troops had entered. If captured, the city of 500,000 people in southern Ukraine, where Russian forces have made the most progress so far, would be the biggest yet to fall. Officials said the fire at the Zaporizhzhia compound was in a training centre, not at the plant itself. An official at Energoatom, the state enterprise that runs Ukraine's four nuclear plants, said there was no further fighting, the fire was out, radiation was normal and Russian forces were in control. "Personnel are on their working places providing normal operation of the station," the official told Reuters in a message. He said his organisation no longer had communication with the plant's managers, control over the radiation situation there or oversight of potentially dangerous nuclear material in its six reactors and about 150 containers of spent fuel. Russia's defence ministry also said the plant was working normally. It blamed the fire on a "monstrous attack" by Ukrainian saboteurs and said its forces were in control.

Zelensky Wanted to Use Nuclear Plant Provocation to Make West Impose No-Fly Zone - Ex-Ukrainian PM - Earlier this week, Nikolay Azarov praised Vladimir Putin's decision to start a special operation in Ukraine, saying the Russian head of state had saved thousands of lives in the Donetsk and Lugansk People's Republics (DPR and LPR). Putin said the operation is meant to "de-Nazify" and demilitarise Kiev.Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky wanted to use a fire at the Zaporozhskaya nuclear power plant in order to make the West impose a no-fly zone over the country, former Ukrainian Prime Minister Nikolay Azarov has said.The ex-official described the incident at the NPP as a deliberate provocation that was carefully designed."No sane Russian or Ukrainian serviceman would have dared to endanger one of the biggest nuclear power plants in Europe, which has six reactors", the former Ukrainian PM said.Azarov then pointed to President Zelensky's reaction to the news – a request to the West introduce a no-fly zone over Ukraine. "The fire occurred at night and he immediately addressed the United States and Britain. This shows that it was a planned provocation", he said.Azarov's statement echoes that of the Russian Defence Ministry. On Friday, Major General Igor Konashenkov said that a group of Russian National Guard officers came under attack from Ukrainian saboteurs while patrolling the territory of the Zaporozhskaya NPP. The Russian servicemen repelled the attack, but as the saboteurs were leaving they set the plant on fire, Konashenkov said.The Russian Defence Ministry emphasised that the plant's employees are working as normal and are monitoring the situation. Director General of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Rafael Grossi confirmed there was no radiation release as a result of the incident and said the safety systems of the six reactors were not affected by the fire.On Friday, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said the issue of introducing a no-fly zone was mentioned during the extraordinary meeting of the alliance's foreign ministers, but noted that NATO believes that its planes and forces should not be sent to Ukraine.

Zelensky Fled to Poland and is 'Hiding in US Embassy', Ukrainian Lawmaker Says - Earlier this week, Nikolay Azarov praised Vladimir Putin's decision to start a special operation in Ukraine, saying the Russian head of state had saved thousands of lives in the Donetsk and Lugansk People's Republics (DPR and LPR). Putin said the operation is meant to "de-Nazify" and demilitarise Kiev.Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky wanted to use a fire at the Zaporozhskaya nuclear power plant in order to make the West impose a no-fly zone over the country, former Ukrainian Prime Minister Nikolay Azarov has said.The ex-official described the incident at the NPP as a deliberate provocation that was carefully designed."No sane Russian or Ukrainian serviceman would have dared to endanger one of the biggest nuclear power plants in Europe, which has six reactors", the former Ukrainian PM said.Azarov then pointed to President Zelensky's reaction to the news – a request to the West introduce a no-fly zone over Ukraine. "The fire occurred at night and he immediately addressed the United States and Britain. This shows that it was a planned provocation", he said.Azarov's statement echoes that of the Russian Defence Ministry. On Friday, Major General Igor Konashenkov said that a group of Russian National Guard officers came under attack from Ukrainian saboteurs while patrolling the territory of the Zaporozhskaya NPP. The Russian servicemen repelled the attack, but as the saboteurs were leaving they set the plant on fire, Konashenkov said.The Russian Defence Ministry emphasised that the plant's employees are working as normal and are monitoring the situation. Director General of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Rafael Grossi confirmed there was no radiation release as a result of the incident and said the safety systems of the six reactors were not affected by the fire.On Friday, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said the issue of introducing a no-fly zone was mentioned during the extraordinary meeting of the alliance's foreign ministers, but noted that NATO believes that its planes and forces should not be sent to Ukraine.

The gory online campaign Ukraine hopes will sow anti-Putin dissent probably violates the Geneva Conventions --A besieged Ukraine has adopted a gruesome tactic in hopes of stoking anti-government rage inside Russia: posting photos and videos of captured and killed Russian soldiers on the Web for anyone to see.On Telegram, Twitter and YouTube, Ukraine’s Ministry of Internal Affairs since Sunday has posted a constant stream of extremely graphic images showcasing the horrors of war and inviting Russians to examine them to determine whether the images feature a missing loved one.In many of the images, soldiers’ corpses can be seen burned, ripped apart, mangled in wreckage or abandoned in snow; in some, their faces are featured in bloody close-ups, frozen in pain.In others, prisoners are interrogated by captors about the invasion as they shake with emotion. Some of the men sit crumpled, hands bound, eyes blindfolded with tape.The images are viewable by anyone with a Web browser or a smartphone and have been shared widely across the Internet. The Telegram channel where they are displayed now has more than 620,000 subscribers.While not unprecedented — North Vietnam shared photos and film of imprisoned U.S. service members, including the late Sen. John McCain, in hopes of inflaming antiwar sentiment in the United States — the Ukrainian effort, thanks to the Internet, is playing to an audience rarely available in the annals of war.Anyone can scroll through hundreds of faces of people the government says were killed just hours earlier or who remain captive, their darkest moments immortalized in video for the world to watch. And because it’s on Telegram, viewers can get a notification and react, with emoji, any time a new video is added.Ukrainian officials have argued that the chilling images will alert Russians to a devastating war effort the Kremlin has sought to conceal. In videos they’ve shared of the phone calls they’ve allowed prisoners to make to their families, Ukrainians can be heard urging the soldiers to ask their parents to rally against Russian President Vladimir Putin to stop the bloodshed.But the tactic also could be interpreted as a violation of the Geneva Conventions, which say governments must “at all times” protect prisoners of war from “insults and public curiosity.”Such violations might seem minor compared with evidence suggesting Russian military forces have killed civilians and indiscriminately bombed residential neighborhoods, said Rachel E. VanLandingham, a professor at Southwestern Law School who has studied war crimes. But they could chip away at Ukraine’s ability to hold Russia accountable for violating international law.“The law doesn’t allow for, ‘They’re doing bad things, so we can, too,’” VanLandingham said. “They don’t want to turn the international community against them. They’ve got to be on the straight and narrow here. It’s really dangerous for them in desperation to do things that are clearly prohibited.”

Russian MoD Shows Wrecked Ukrainian Tanks, Abandoned US Javelins Near Mariupol – Video - The Defence Ministry earlier said that its troops in cooperation with the forces of the Donbass republics have made progress in encircling the Ukrainian city of Mariupol. Their advance comes as part of a special operation declared by Russian President Vladimir Putin on 24 February to demilitarise and "de-Nazify" Ukraine.The Russian Defence Ministry has released a video showing the aftermath of fighting near the city of Mariupol. The footage shows a partially destroyed tank, presumably a T-72AV/B1, branding the colours of the Ukrainian flag on its main cannon.The video also shows an abandoned and possibly used FGM-148 Javelin anti-tank missile, which were supplied in huge numbers to Ukraine by the US. Russia lambasted these shipments, arguing that they would only exacerbate the fighting in Donbass and prompt Kiev to abandon the option of resolving the crisis through peaceful means.Additionally, the footage from the Defence Ministry shows abandoned Ukrainian military fortifications. It also depicted the distribution of water and provisions to local residents by the Russian military as part of the humanitarian efforts being carried out in the area.

Putin likens Western sanctions to war as Russian assault traps Ukrainian civilians (Reuters) - Russian President Vladimir Putin said Western sanctions were akin to war as his forces pressed their assault on Ukraine on Saturday for a 10th day and the IMF warned the conflict would have a "severe impact" on the global economy. Moscow and Kyiv traded blame over failed plans for a brief ceasefire to enable civilians to evacuate two cities besieged by Russian forces. Russia's invasion has already driven nearly 1.5 million refugees westward into the European Union. Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskiy made a "desperate plea" for eastern Europe to provide Russian-made aircraft to his country during a video call with U.S. senators on Saturday, said the chamber's majority leader, Chuck Schumer. read more. NATO, which Ukraine wants to join, has resisted Zelenskiy's appeals to impose a no-fly zone over his country, saying this would escalate the conflict outside Ukraine. But there is strong bipartisan support in the U.S. Congress for providing $10 billion in emergency military and humanitarian aid to Ukraine. read more Putin said he wanted a neutral Ukraine that had been "demilitarised" and "denazified", adding: "These sanctions that are being imposed are akin to a declaration of war but thank God it has not come to that." read more. Ukraine and Western countries have rejected Putin's arguments as a baseless pretext for invading and have sought to squeeze Russia hard with swift and severe economic sanctions on its banks, oligarchs and others.Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett met with Putin at the Kremlin on Saturday to discuss the crisis before then speaking to Zelenskiy, Bennett's spokesperson said. Israel has offered to mediate in the conflict, though officials have downplayed expectations for a breakthrough. read more. Ukrainian negotiators said a third round of talks with Russia on a ceasefire would go ahead on Monday, although Moscow was less definitive. Two previous rounds were unsuccessful and Zelenskiy has said Russia must first stop bombing. read more Earlier, the International Committee of the Red Cross had said planned civilian evacuations from Mariupol and Volnovakha were unlikely to start on Saturday. The city council in Mariupol had accused Russia of not observing a ceasefire, while Moscow said Ukrainian "nationalists" were preventing civilians from leaving. Britain said the proposed ceasefire in Mariupol - which has been without power, water and heating for days - was likely an attempt by Russia to deflect international condemnation while it resets its forces.The port of Mariupol has endured heavy bombardment, a sign of its strategic value to Moscow due to its position between Russian-backed separatist-held eastern Ukraine and the Black Sea Crimean peninsula, which Moscow seized from Kyiv in 2014.Russia's Defence Ministry said its forces were carrying out a wide-ranging offensive in Ukraine and had taken several towns and villages, Interfax news agency reported. A United Nations monitoring mission said at least 351 civilians had been confirmed killed and 707 injured in Ukraine since the start of the invasion on Feb. 24, adding that the real figures were likely to be "considerably higher". The number of refugees could rise to 1.5 million by Sunday night from 1.3 million now, the U.N. refugee agency chief said.

Russia Declares Ceasefire in Ukraine From 07:00 GMT to Open Humanitarian Corridors for Civilians - Creating humanitarian corridors for the evacuation of civilians was agreed upon by Russian and Ukrainian officials during their second round of talks in Belarus aimed at resolving the Ukraine crisis.Russia has declared a ceasefire in Ukraine as of 07:00 GMT in order to open humanitarian corridors for civilians. The move was announced amid the ongoing Russian military operation in Ukraine meant to demilitarise and "de-Nazify" the country."Today, on 5 March at 10 a.m. Moscow time, the Russian side declares a ceasefire and opens humanitarian corridors for the exit of civilians from Mariupol and Volnovakha", the Russian Defence Ministry told reporters on Saturday.The ministry added that the humanitarian corridors and exit routes have been agreed upon with the Ukrainian side.This comes after the ministry reported the catastrophic humanitarian situation in most of Ukraine, with the cities of Kiev, Kharkov, Sumy, Chernigov, and Mariupol being the hardest hit by the humanitarian crisis.Ukrainian presidential aide Mikhail Podolyak, for his part, said that about 200,000 people are trying to evacuate from Mariupol, while "20,000 people also want to leave [the city of] Volnovakha [in the Donetsk region]".At present, Volnovakha and Mariupol, one of Ukraine's largest ports, are being blockaded by forces from the Donetsk and Lugansk People's Republics (DPR and LPR).Mariupol's authorities have since said that they want to use the ceasefire in order to restore critical infrastructure in the city, as well as provide it with essential food items and medicines.The authorities also said that the ceasefire in Mariupol will be established from 10:00 a.m. to 5:00 p.m. Moscow time (7:00 GMT and 14:00 GMT, respectively), with the evacuation of the civilian population due to begin at 12:00 p.m. Moscow time (9:00 GMT). The ceasefire declaration follows the Russian and Ukrainian sides earlier this week holding a second round of talks on ending the Ukraine crisis in the Brest region of Belarus, where the two specifically agreed on creating humanitarian corridors to evacuate civilians.

Why Don’t We Treat All Refugees as Though They Were Ukrainian? - It was inevitable that when brown-skinned Afghan refugees fleeing war were turned away from European borders over the past few years, the callous actions of these governments would come back to haunt them. A whopping 1 million people have fled Ukraine from Russia’s violent invasion in the span of only a week. They are being welcomed—as refugees should be—into neighboring nations, inviting accusations of racist double standards.Poland offers the most egregious example of national racism. Its government, whose nation borders Ukraine, has warmly welcomed traumatized Ukrainians, just months after turning away Afghans. If these optics weren’t bad enough, Polish nationalists have sought out people of color who are among the refugees fleeing Ukraine and violently attacked them. According to the Guardian, “three Indians were beaten up by a group of five men, leaving one of them hospitalized.” African nationals studying in Ukraine joined the exodus after Russia’s invasion, and have been stopped at the Polish border. Poland might as well erect a giant sign on its border declaring, “whites only.”In elevating such disparate skin-tone-dependent attitudes toward refugees, Europe is giving its colonialist heritage a new lease on life. We see echoes today of the dehumanization that enabled European colonization of the Global South and the enslavement of generations.It’s not just Poland. The Arab and Middle Eastern Journalists Association has denounced the overtly racist language of many Western journalists, including American ones like Charlie D’Agataof CBS who said of Ukraine that “this isn’t a place, with all due respect, like Iraq or Afghanistan, that has seen conflict raging for decades.” (In fact, Ukraine has seen plenty of conflict in the past years.)D’Agata’s insertion of “with all due respect” was perhaps his belated realization that he was veering into dangerous territory by contrasting Ukrainian civilization against the presupposed barbarity of the darker nations. But then, he continued, saying, “this is a relatively civilized, relatively European—I have to choose those words carefully, too—city where you wouldn’t expect that, or hope that it’s going to happen.”Again, D’Agata likely realized as the words were escaping his mouth just how racist he was sounding. He needed to choose his words carefully in order to avoid the appearance of bias. He clearly failed. His later apology was not very convincing. D’Agata exposed his personal allegiance with the Global North when he expressed “hope” against war breaking out in a nation whose people look like he does. The implied flip side is that he harbors no such hope when the conflict-ridden nations of the Global South are embroiled in violence.

Mexico declines to join Russia sanctions --Mexico won’t be taking part in the international pile-on to sanction Russia over its invasion of Ukraine, as President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador has said he seeks to keep his country on peaceful terms with all nations.“We are not going to take any sort of economic retaliation because we want to maintain good relations with all the governments of the world,” Lopez Obrador told reporters on Tuesday. He added that remaining neutral will put Mexico in a position to “talk with the parties in conflict.”The Mexican leader’s position on the Ukraine crisis marks a novel diplomatic strategy as other nations around the world – including former Warsaw Pact nations such as Bulgaria and Romania – join the US in trying to punish Russia. Choosing neutrality could strain Mexico’s close relationship with Washington, but Lopez Obrador has been critical of US foreign policy.Even as it tries to avoid alienating its dominant trading partner, the US, Mexico also aims to maintain economic ties with Russia and Moscow’s Latin American allies. Russia’s Lukoil this year bought into an offshore oil project in Mexico, and Lopez Obrador said on Monday that his country will keep its airspace open for Aeroflot’s flights to Mexico City.Mexican Tourism Minister Miguel Torruco was widely criticized this week for posting a Twitter message offering “warm greetings” to Aeroflot and noting that “tourism is synonymous with peace, friendship and understanding between peoples.” He added that Russian tourist visits to Mexico more than doubled last year to over 75,000. Lopez Obrador criticized censorship of Russian media outlets, including RT, by governments and social media companies. “I don’t agree with the fact that media from Russia or any country is censored,” he said.

Amid Ukraine crisis, China’s ‘Zero COVID’ weighs on global growth As war in Ukraine and sanctions on Russia threaten global economic growth, the future of China’s “dynamic zero COVID” policy is under scrutiny as a factor in supply chain disruptions and rising inflation. While the rest of the world is opening borders and learning to live with COVID-19, China’s elimination strategy – which involves using mass testing and tracing, border controls and snap lockdowns to contain the virus – has weighed on the post-pandemic economic recovery at home and overseas. The restrictions have slowed domestic spending across China, set off a brain drain in Hong Kong, and triggered export disruptions that have been blamed for fuelling rising inflation worldwide. In January, IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva said Beijing’s pandemic strategy increasingly looked like “more of a burden” to the economy. “At a time of heightened market volatility, any possible news on another more serious COVID outbreak in China will stir market reactions and add further to commodity price volatility,” said Tommy Wu, lead economist at Oxford Economics in Hong Kong. GlobalData has forecast a 4.6 percent global inflation rate in 2022, compared with 3.6 percent in 2021, revising its inflation estimates upward for many of China’s major export destinations, including the US, Germany, the Netherlands, and Vietnam. The crisis in Ukraine has exacerbated pre-existing global inflation fears, with oil prices surging above $100 a barrel for the first time since 2014. China has declined to condemn Russia, the world’s second-largest natural gas producer and third-largest oil producer, over its invasion of Ukraine, and instead, has called on all parties to “exercise restraint”. “China supply-chain disruptions have driven up input costs for firms across sectors who’ve had to pass the higher cost of production on to consumers thereby driving up global good prices,” Gargi Rao, a GlobalData economic research analyst, told Al Jazeera, listing the US, Hong Kong, Japan, Vietnam, South Korea, and India as among the economies most vulnerable to China’s supply chain disruptions. “To tame these inflationary pressures, central banks in major economies are likely to hike policy rates. However, even after hiking policy rates, inflationary pressure may persist as the rise in price level is mainly driven by supply shortages.” While the economic impact of zero COVID pales in comparison to the potential fallout of the war in Ukraine, the unpredictability and suddenness of disruptions can have costly, albeit short-lived consequences. A lockdown in the southern Chinese city of Baise last month interpreted the transportation of aluminium ingots and raw materials to factories, triggering export delays that sent prices to a 14-year high. “Supply chain interruptions in China don’t discriminate by industry or geographic region,” Trivium China analyst Taylor Loeb told Al Jazeera. “They are unpredictable and have happened all over the country. The uncertainty will continue – not around the policy per se, but around the fact that the ‘when’ and ‘where’ of outbreaks, and the lockdowns that follow them, are unpredictable.” Apparently concerned about the economic fallout, Beijing has in recent months experimented with more targeted lockdowns that have focused on specific venues or neighbourhoods rather than whole cities. “The impact of lockdowns in China on supply chains will depend on how the lockdowns are implemented,” Tianlei Huang, a research fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics in Washington, DC, told Al Jazeera. Huang cited Shanghai – which locked down specific buildings and locations rather than the entire city – as a good example of an effective targeted lockdown strategy. “With well-targeted lockdowns, economic activity interruptions can be minimised,” he said. Wu of Oxford Economies said a more targeted approach would help “keep production running as much as possible in case of COVID outbreaks.”

Japan's service sector activity contracts at fastest pace in 21 months – PMI (Reuters) - Japan's services sector activity shrank in February at the quickest pace in nearly two years, a survey showed on Thursday, as business took a hit from struggling consumer sentiment after a record spike in infections of the Omicron coronavirus variant. The activity contraction highlights the challenge Japanese policymakers face in stimulating consumer spending to keep a fragile recovery on track as the Ukraine crisis and supply disruptions worsen uncertainty in the economic outlook. The final au Jibun Bank Japan Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) fell to a seasonally adjusted 44.2 from the prior month's final of 47.6, marking the fastest rate of contraction since May 2020. While activity stayed well below the 50-mark that separates contraction from expansion on a monthly basis, that was better than a seasonally adjusted 42.7 flash reading. "Activity and new business declined at the sharpest pace since last August," said Usamah Bhatti, economist at IHS Markit, which compiles the survey. Business in the sector saw overall input prices rise for the 15th straight month, citing increased fuel and raw material costs, but that did not lead them to charge more for services as the surge in coronavirus cases hit consumer demand. "Firms made attempts to stimulate demand by engaging in price discounting measures for the first time in six months, despite a renewed acceleration in average cost burdens," said Bhatti. The composite PMI, which is calculated using both manufacturing and services, fell to 45.8 from January's final of 49.9, contracting at the fastest speed in 18 months. The world's third-largest economy is expected to see growth grind to a near halt this quarter, likely growing an annualised 0.4%, as coronavirus curbs and supply bottlenecks weigh on overall activity, a Reuters poll showed this week..

Many UK services businesses plan record price rises – CBI (Reuters) - A record share of firms in Britain's business and professional services sector expect to raise prices over the next three months as they face surging cost pressures, a survey showed on Thursday, adding to the Bank of England's inflation challenge. The Confederation of British Industry said business and professional services firms were more likely to raise prices than at any time since the survey began in 1998. Consumer services companies' pricing plans were the highest since 2007. "Rising inflation and cost pressures are hitting firms' profitability and their bottom line. The spectre of further price increases is being felt across the board," said Charlotte Dendy, the CBI's head of economic surveys. The BoE has raised interest rates twice since December in a bid to stop an energy-led surge in inflation to a 30-year high from shifting businesses' pricing behaviour upwards in the long term. Financial markets expect the central bank to raise rates again this month and for interest rates to reach 1.5% by August, up from 0.5% now. The quarterly CBI survey, conducted from Jan. 28 to Feb. 15, showed sales growth slowed over the previous three months, when many companies were hit by the Omicron wave of coronavirus. However, hiring and investment intentions remain strong and the businesses forecast a pick-up in business volumes over the coming quarter.

UK mother faces court for protecting her child from COVID-19 infected schools -A mother who has kept her vulnerable primary age son off school due to rampant COVID-19 infections has been charged with “failing to ensure regular school attendance” under Section 444 (1) of the Education Act 1996. Sarah Paxman, a single mother who herself is suffering from the debilitating effects of Long COVID, received the notice from Surrey County Council on February 14. The letter instructs that she has 21 days from receipt to enter her plea. Eight-year-old Stanley is autistic and attends a specialist school. He suffers from several underlying health conditions, which are potentially life threatening. They include Cold Urticaria, which means that even breathing in cold air for a short period of time has caused him to become unconscious on several occasions. Because of the danger of anaphylaxis, he is required to take a medication four times the adult daily dose and to always have two EpiPens at hand—two at school and two at home. Sarah has taught her son at home since March 2020. Surrey County Council are aware of her understandable concerns but continue to persecute her regardless. Other parents across the country that have been threatened with fines and prosecution include Lisa Diaz, a mother of two from Wigan and a leading member of the SafeEdForAll (Safe Education for All) campaign group. Surrey Council's legal threat rejects the scientifically grounded objections made by Sarah to the policy of letting COVID rip in schools. It asserts that she had been reassured “of the safety measures put in place”, including “cancellation of group gatherings such as school assemblies, regular handwashing and the implementation of ‘bubbles’ to adhere to social distancing as much as possible.” This supposed reassurance was given in September 2021, as the government was insisting schools must remain open, leading to an explosion in cases. Even when Sarah was interviewed under caution in December and explained that the new Omicron variant was affecting children more than previous variants, with a 20 percent rise in hospital admissions, her concerns were dismissed.