week ending Jul 30

Fed makes history with second massive rate hike in as many months - What seemed unfathomable just six months ago -- a 75-basis-point rate hike by the Federal Reserve -- has now happened twice in a row. At the conclusion of its July monetary policymaking meeting, members of the US central bank on Wednesday once again approved a supersized interest rate hike of three-quarters of a percentage point. Members voted unanimously in favor of the aggressive move to tackle white-hot inflation. The unprecedented action emphasizes how far the Fed is willing to push the economy to temper rising costs for Americans amid the highest price increases since the 1980s. "Recent indicators of spending and production have softened," Fed officials said in an official statement. "Nonetheless, job gains have been robust in recent months, and the unemployment rate has remained low." Inflation is still elevated, they said, "reflecting supply and demand imbalances related to the pandemic, higher food and energy prices, and broader price pressures." In prior months, the central bank noted higher energy prices but this is the first month they included rising food costs in their analysis. When the pandemic first hit the United States, the Fed rolled out a series of emergency measures to support the economy, including slashing its interest rate to zero, making it almost free to borrow money. But while that "easy money" policy encouraged spending by households and businesses, it also fueled inflation and contributed to today's overheated economy. Now that the economy no longer needs support from the Fed, the central bank has been taking steps to "remove the punch bowl" and slow down the economy by hiking interest rates. The Fed's actions will increase the rate that banks charge each other for overnight borrowing to a range of between 2.25% to 2.50%, the highest since December 2018. Over the last three decades, the Fed has nudged its benchmark interest rate up or down by an average of 25 basis points, preferring to steer the economy at low speed. But surging inflation compelled the central bank last month to implement a rate hike of three times that size, marking the first time since 1994 that the Fed has rolled out a 75-basis-point increase. Wednesday's rate hike represents the first time in modern Fed history that the central bank has raised interest rates by 75 basis points twice in a row. The question now is whether the Fed will be able to remove the punch without ending the party. The Fed must execute a delicate balancing act or its strategy could slow economic growth while inflation is still growing. Significant and entrenched inflation could lead to a loss of confidence that the Fed can fulfill its dual mandate of price stability and maximum employment. And Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell has said the biggest risk to the economy would be persistent inflation, not an economic downturn. In the last 11 tightening cycles, the Fed has only successfully avoided recession three times. During each of those cycles, inflation was lower than it is today.

 The Federal Reserve just moved to make your credit cards, mortgages, and car loans more expensive in hopes you'll spend less and help cool inflation - The Federal Reserve raised its benchmark interest rate by 0.75 percentage points on Wednesday, extending a streak of larger-than-usual hikes amid ever-faster inflation.The Federal Open Market Committee ended its two-day July meeting with another triple-sized rate hike, matching the one issued in mid-June. The benchmark rate now sits between 2.25% and 2.50%, roughly matching what officials estimate to be a "neutral" level for rates that's neither stimulative nor restrictive. The 0.75-point hike is only the second such increase since 1994 and reflects the Fed's still-aggressive stance toward countering high inflation."The Committee decided to raise the target range for the federal funds rate to 2-1/4 to 2-1/2 percent and anticipates that ongoing increases in the target range will be appropriate," the Fed said in a statement.The increase was unanimously supported by the committee's 12 voting members.The hike comes two weeks after government data showed price growth accelerating again last month. The Consumer Price Index — a closely watched inflation metric — soared 9.1% in the year through June, marking the fastest pace since November 1981. The print landed well above economists' forecasts and emphasized just how difficult taming inflation is proving to be. Higher rates aim to cool inflation by slowing economic activity, but they operate with a lag. As such, the effects of the June increase likely won't reverberate throughout the economy until the end of the summer at the earliest.The report also solidified confidence in financial markets that the Fed would keep its foot firmly on the brake. Investors priced in a triple-sized rate hike earlier in July after previously wavering between a 0.75-point and 1.0-point increase. Recent commentaryfrom Fed officials erased most bets on a full-point hike, with investors betting on the Fed to show some trepidation around slowing the economy too quickly. "The Federal Reserve's 75 basis-point increase now means that, in the space of just four months, they have hiked rates by as much as they did over the entire 2015-2018 hiking cycle," "This is rapidly proving to be one of the most aggressive hiking cycles we've seen in recent decades.” Such concerns are likely to be amplified in the weeks ahead. The Fed meeting comes just one day before the Commerce Department publishes its initial reading of second-quarter economic growth. Economists generally expect output to grow at an annualized rate of 0.5%, but several projections see the economy shrinking for a second consecutive quarter. A negative print would escalate concerns of an impending recession, as many regard back-to-back quarters of negative GDP as a clear sign of a downturn. A disappointing GDP number would also constrain the Fed even further. The central bank has caught flak for its fast-paced hiking cycle, with many arguing the Fed will stifle demand too quickly and quickly sap what momentum the recovery has left. Fed Chair Jerome Powell has pushed back against the notion that a recession is inevitable, and repeated his outlook in a Wednesday press conference. "I do not think that the US is currently in a recession," he said. "There are too many areas of the economy that are performing too well."

FOMC Statement: Raise Rates 75 bp; "Ongoing increases appropriate" -Fed Chair Powell press conference video here or on YouTube here, starting at 2:30 PM ET. FOMC Statement: Recent indicators of spending and production have softened. Nonetheless, job gains have been robust in recent months, and the unemployment rate has remained low. Inflation remains elevated, reflecting supply and demand imbalances related to the pandemic, higher food and energy prices, and broader price pressures. Russia's war against Ukraine is causing tremendous human and economic hardship. The war and related events are creating additional upward pressure on inflation and are weighing on global economic activity. The Committee is highly attentive to inflation risks. The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2 percent over the longer run. In support of these goals, the Committee decided to raise the target range for the federal funds rate to 2-1/4 to 2-1/2 percent and anticipates that ongoing increases in the target range will be appropriate. In addition, the Committee will continue reducing its holdings of Treasury securities and agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities, as described in the Plans for Reducing the Size of the Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet that were issued in May. The Committee is strongly committed to returning inflation to its 2 percent objective. In assessing the appropriate stance of monetary policy, the Committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook. The Committee would be prepared to adjust the stance of monetary policy as appropriate if risks emerge that could impede the attainment of the Committee's goals. The Committee's assessments will take into account a wide range of information, including readings on public health, labor market conditions, inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and financial and international developments.

Powell Puts 75-Basis-Point Hike on Table for Sept, Fed “Determined” to Get Inflation Down, Come Heck or High Water: Most Hawkish FOMC Press Conference I Ever Watched – Wolf Richter - The FOMC voted today to hike all policy rates by another “unusually large” 75 basis points, the second such hike in a row, the most hawkish moves since 1994, with no one dissenting, and even Esther George, who’d dissented last time, was on board.This brings the Fed’s target for the federal funds rate to a range between 2.25% and 2.50%, which is still very low, given that CPI inflation has spiked to 9.1%, but it’s a lot higher than the near 0% in February.During the post-meeting press conference, the most hawkish press conference I’ve ever listened to, Powell tried to get the message through to the markets that getting inflation down is the #1 priority, and that the Fed would get it back down, come heck or high water..To make sure everyone got it, he said several times that “another unusually large increase could be appropriate at the next meeting,” depending on the inflation data, thus putting another 75-basis-point hike on the table for the September meeting. Another 75-basis point hike in September would take the Fed’s target for the federal funds rate to a range between 3.0% and 3.25%. Out the window went the notion of a “pause” in September that had been ridiculously hyped by some tightening-deniers a couple of months ago. And Powell said that “we wouldn’t hesitate” to go even higher – so a 100-basis point hike maybe – if inflation data comes in hot.He said over and over again that the Committee was “determined” to tighten financial conditions, and that it was “necessary” to slow the economy, and it was “necessary” to slow demand, and it was “necessary” to slow the labor market in order to get inflation back down.And inflation is going to be the top focus until “we confident that inflation is on a path down to 2%.” “People at the lower income spectrum are suffering from high inflation,” Powell said. “We know inflation is too high… particularly for people who live from paycheck to paycheck,” he said. “Middle-class and better-off people have resources to deal with inflation,” he said. But lower income people don’t.At the lower income spectrum, “we’re seeing real declines in food consumption,” he said, pointing out that people in this income category spend all their money on necessities, such as food, gasoline, and rent, and it’s these necessities where inflation has been the worst, and these people are bearing the brunt of this inflation and can least afford it. After all this hawkish talk, he was asked, how a recession would change the Fed’s policy. “We think it’s necessary to have growth slow down,” he said. “We need a period of growth below potential,” and he expects “some softening in labor market conditions” and this softening of the labor market will be “necessary.”He said over and over again, so everyone would get it, that high inflation gets in the way of economic growth and “full employment” over the longer term because of all the problems it causes, and bringing inflation down was necessary to achieve the Fed’s dual mandate of price stability and full employment.“We’re going to be focused on getting inflation down,” he said. “Price stability is the bedrock of the economy” and for a strong labor market and for growth, he said.Economic growth and a strong labor market are not going to happen without getting inflation back down, he said. “Restoring price stability is what we have to do,” he said.And he was asked about the risk of “doing too much,” of raising rates too far.He said that the risk of “doing too little” is that inflation might not come down, which would then raise the costs of doing it later when inflation was really entrenched, and it would be harder and “more painful” to bring inflation down then, because once people start factoring in high inflation, it becomes very difficult and painful to dislodge.“A soft landing is our goal, we keep trying to achieve it,” he said, but it’s “a very uncertain thing.”

Powell says rate hikes aren’t a stability risk. Others are less convinced. -- The Federal Reserve is raising interest rates at its fastest pace in decades in an effort to stomp out inflation, but Chair Jerome Powell says the banking and financial sectors are well equipped to handle the impact.After the Fed’s Federal Open Market Committee raised its benchmark interest rate by three-quarters of a percentage point on Wednesday, Powell said well-capitalized banks, responsive markets and strong household balance sheets paint a “pretty decent picture” of financial stability.Others are less confident. “The risk to the market of economic stagflation is much more than the Fed or [Treasury Secretary] Janet Yellen want to acknowledge; the risk of an institutional failure is greater than what the chairman admitted in the press conference this week,” said Komal Sri-Kumar, a senior fellow at the Milken Institute and an independent macroeconomic consultant. “The Fed and Treasury are trying to be sanguine in public, but I hope that is not reflective of what they are doing on the inside to prepare for these events. ”Sri-Kumar is one of several economists and policy experts who believe the Fed’s rapid-fire rate increases could be a greater threat than Powell has acknowledged.The FOMC has raised the target range for the federal funds rate by 0.75 of a percentage point in two consecutive meetings and by 2.25 percentage points overall in four months. The pace of tightening outpaces anything seen by the Fed in roughly 40 years. Financial institutions have had little time to adjust to the expedited tightening cycle. When the Fed began raising interest rates in March, most FOMC members expected to reach the current policy rate sometime next year, according to the committee’s Summary of Economic Projects. Since then, the Fed has adopted a more aggressive stance, vowing to move “expeditiously” to make its monetary policy less accommodating — and, if necessary, restrictive — to rein in soaring inflation. Changing interest rates faster than capital markets can adjust heightens the risk of defaults on loans and other financial instruments.If such exposures are concentrated within large institutions the ripple effects could have a systemic impact. This was the case for the hedge fund Long-Term Capital Management in 1998, which required a Fed-brokered $3.6 billion recapitalization.

China Tried To Build Spy Network Inside The Fed, Threatened To Kidnap Fed Economist - China tried to place "a network of informants inside the Federal Reserve system" over the course of a decade, according to a stunning new article out this morning from the Wall Street Journal. Over 10 years, Fed employees were offered contracts with Chinese talent recruitment programs, often including cash payments, in exchange for providing information on the U.S. economy and interest rate changes, according to an investigation by Republican staff members of the Senate’s Committee on Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs.The country even threatened to imprison a Fed economist on a trip to Shanghai as apart of their efforts. The economist was detained in 2019, the report says. WSJ notes that it is unclear whether any "sensitive information was compromised", though we're not sure exactly how "sensitive" Fed information is to begin with. The investigation called it “a sustained effort by China, over more than a decade, to gain influence over the Federal Reserve and a failure by the Federal Reserve to combat this threat effectively."Fed Chair Jerome Powell spoke out against the report's findings: “Because we understand that some actors aim to exploit any vulnerabilities, our processes, controls, and technology are robust and updated regularly. We respectfully reject any suggestions to the contrary.”“We take seriously any violations of these robust information security policies,” he continued, according to the report.

PCE Price Index: May Headline at 6.76% YoY - The BEA's Personal Income and Outlays report for June was published this morning by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. The latest Headline PCE price index was up 0.95% month-over-month (MoM) and is up 6.76% year-over-year (YoY). Core PCE (YoY) is now at 4.79%, well above the Fed's 2% target rate.The adjacent thumbnail gives us a close-up of the trend in YoY Core PCE since January 2012. The first string of red data points highlights the 12 consecutive months when Core PCE hovered in a narrow range around its interim low. The second string highlights the lower range from late 2014 through 2015. Core PCE shifted higher in 2016 with a decline in 2017, 2019, and 2020, with a major increase in 2022.The first chart below shows the monthly year-over-year change in the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index since 2000. Also included is an overlay of the Core PCE (less Food and Energy) price index, which is Fed's preferred indicator for gauging inflation. The two percent benchmark is the Fed's conventional target for core inflation. Most recently, the Fed reviewed their monetary policy strategy and longer-term goals and released a statement, mentioning its federal mandate to promote "maximum employment, stable prices, and moderate long-term interest rates". They also confirmed their commitment to using the two percent benchmark as a lower limit:"The inflation rate over the longer run is primarily determined by monetary policy, and hence the Committee has the ability to specify a longer-run goal for inflation. The Committee reaffirms its judgment that inflation at the rate of 2 percent, as measured by the annual change in the price index for personal consumption expenditures, is most consistent over the longer run with the Federal Reserve's statutory mandate. The Committee judges that longer-term inflation expectations that are well anchored at 2 percent foster price stability and moderate long-term interest rates and enhance the Committee's ability to promote maximum employment in the face of significant economic disturbances. In order to anchor longer-term inflation expectations at this level, the Committee seeks to achieve inflation that averages 2 percent over time, and therefore judges that, following periods when inflation has been running persistently below 2 percent, appropriate monetary policy will likely aim to achieve inflation moderately above 2 percent for some time." Read the August 2020 statement hereThe index data is shown to two decimal points to highlight the change more accurately. It may seem trivial to focus such detail on numbers that will be revised again next month (the three previous months are subject to revision and the annual revision reaches back three years). But core PCE is such a key measure of inflation for the Federal Reserve that precision seems warranted. For a long-term perspective, here are the same two metrics spanning five decades.

Powell warns that path to avoiding recession has 'narrowed' as Fed hikes rates - (video) The Federal Reserve on Wednesday pulled the trigger on another supersized interest rate hike, ushering in an end to easy money policies in its bid to battle the worst inflation since Ronald Reagan’s presidency. Fed officials increased rates by three-quarters of a percentage point, bringing their main policy rate to its highest level since 2019. The central bank has signaled it will raise borrowing costs further throughout the year, which would make debt more expensive than at any time since the 2008 financial crisis. The move signals the central bank’s determination to do whatever it takes to kill the spike in inflation, despite warnings from critics such as Sen. Elizabeth Warren that the Fed is unnecessarily jeopardizing a healthy job market over price increases that are driven by factors outside its control. “We’re not trying to have a recession, and we don’t think we have to,” Fed Chair Jerome Powell said at a press conference after the policymaking committee’s decision. But he acknowledged that the path to avoiding an economic contraction has “narrowed and may narrow further.” The central bank slashed rates at the beginning of the pandemic to encourage lending and boost growth as the economy entered a brief but deep recession. With its move Wednesday, it has removed that support for the economy. That means that now the Fed will be taking inflation on more directly and its moves could cut into growth more severely. The Fed’s actions have contributed to a slowdown, raising fears that the U.S. might already have tipped into a recession. Manufacturing output is slowing, wage growth is decelerating and the housing market is cooling, all signs that rate hikes are starting to wend their way through the country. On Thursday, the government reports on the April-June GDP numbers, which the Atlanta Fed says could show the economy shrank for the second straight quarter. Still, Powell said that while the rate hikes “have been large and they’ve come quickly,” it’s likely that “their full effect has not been felt by the economy.” “Over the coming months, we will be looking for compelling evidence that inflation is moving down consistent with inflation returning to 2 percent,” he said. “While another unusually large increase could be appropriate at our next meeting, that is a decision that will depend on the data we get between now and then.” This is the fourth time the central bank has raised rates this year, and the second time it has opted for a 0.75 percentage point increase, three times the standard size. The 75-basis-point hike lifted the Fed’s benchmark to a range of 2.25 percent to 2.5 percent target.

Larry Summers says a US recession is very likely, as the market braces for weak Q2 growth figures -- Former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers has said there's a "very high likelihood" of a US recession, speaking ahead of the release of second-quarter GDP figures and a key Federal Reserve decision this week.Summers told CNN's "Fareed Zakaria GPS" the Fed is unlikely to be able to engineer a so-called soft landing — that is, just a modest economic pullback — as it raises interest rates to deal with the strongest inflation in 41 years."I think there is a very high likelihood of recession when we've been in this kind of situation before," Summers said Sunday."Recession has essentially always followed when inflation has been high and unemployment has been low. Soft landings represent a kind of triumph of hope over experience. I think we're very unlikely to see one."Summers, who was Treasury Secretary under President Bill Clinton, did not specify when he expects a recession to arrive. But his comments came ahead of the release of preliminary second-quarter gross domestic product figures due out Thursday, which could show the US has already entered a recession by one measure.US GDP contracted by 1.6% on an annualized basis in the first quarter, an unexpectedly poor performance. Economists estimate GDP grew 0.5% in the second quarter, according to a Bloomberg poll. Yet some, including Bank of America and Deutsche Bank, are expecting a contraction.By one common definition, two consecutive quarters of falling GDP would mean the US is in a recession. However, in the US, the official arbiter of a recession is the National Bureau of Economic Research. It defines such an event as "a significant decline in economic activity that is spread across the economy and lasts more than a few months."

Chicago Fed: "Index points to steady economic growth in June"- "Index points to steady economic growth in June ." This is the headline for this morning's release of the Chicago Fed's National Activity Index, and here is the opening paragraph from the report: The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) was unchanged at –0.19 in June. Two of the four broad categories of indicators used to construct the index made negative contributions in June, and two categories deteriorated from May. The index’s three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, moved down to –0.04 in June from +0.09 in May. [more] The Chicago Fed's National Activity Index (CFNAI) is a monthly indicator designed to gauge overall economic activity and related inflationary pressure. It is a composite of 85 monthly indicators as explained in this background PDF file on the Chicago Fed's website. The index is constructed so a zero value for the index indicates that the national economy is expanding at its historical trend rate of growth. Negative values indicate below-average growth, and positive values indicate above-average growth. The first chart below shows the recent behavior of the index since 2007. The red dots show the indicator itself, which is quite noisy, together with the 3-month moving average (CFNAI-MA3), which is more useful as an indicator of the actual trend for coincident economic activity.

Five High Frequency Indicators for the Economy -- These indicators are mostly for travel and entertainment. . Notes: I've added back gasoline supplied to see if there is an impact from higher gasoline prices. Apple has discontinued "Apple mobility", and restaurant traffic is mostly back to normal. The TSA is providing daily travel numbers. This data is as of July 24th.This data shows the 7-day average of daily total traveler throughput from the TSA for 2019 (Light Blue), 2020 (Black), 2021 (Blue) and 2022 (Red). The 7-day average is down 12.1% from the same day in 2019 (87.9% of 2019). (Dashed line) Air travel - as a percent of 2019 - has been moving sideways over the last several months, off about 10% from 2019 - with some ups and downs, usually related to the timing of holidays. This data shows domestic box office for each week and the median for the years 2016 through 2019 (dashed light blue). The data is from BoxOfficeMojo through July 21st. Movie ticket sales were at $206 million last week, down about 18% from the median for the week. This graph shows the seasonal pattern for the hotel occupancy rate using the four-week average. This data is through July 16th. The occupancy rate was down 7.4% compared to the same week in 2019. The 4-week average of the occupancy rate is close to the median rate for the previous 20 years (Blue). This graph, based on weekly data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), shows gasoline supplied compared to the same week of 2019. As of July 15th, gasoline supplied was down 7.5% compared to the same week in 2019. Recently gasoline supplied has been running somewhat below 2019 levels.- Here is some interesting data on New York subway usage. This graph shows weekly turnstile entries since 2015. Currently traffic is less than half of normal. This data is through Friday, July 22nd.

BEA: Real GDP decreased at 0.9% Annualized Rate in Q2- From the BEA: Gross Domestic Product, Second Quarter 2022 (Advance Estimate) Real gross domestic product (GDP) decreased at an annual rate of 0.9 percent in the second quarter of 2022, according to the "advance" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the first quarter, real GDP decreased 1.6 percent. ... The decrease in real GDP reflected decreases in private inventory investment, residential fixed investment, federal government spending, state and local government spending, and nonresidential fixed investment that were partly offset by increases in exports and personal consumption expenditures (PCE). Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, increased. PCE increased at a 1.0% rate, and residential investment decreased at a 14.0% rate. Change in private inventories was a huge drag in Q2, subtracting 2.01 percentage points. The advance Q2 GDP report, with 0.9% annualized decline, was below expectations.

Q2 GDP Advance Estimate: Real GDP at -0.9%, Worse Than Forecast -The Advance Estimate for Q2 GDP, to one decimal, came in at -0.9% (-0.93% to two decimal places), an increase from -1.6% (-1.57% to two decimal places) for the Q1 Third Estimate. Investing.com had a consensus of 0.5%. Here is the slightly abbreviated opening text from the Bureau of Economic Analysis news release:Real gross domestic product (GDP) decreased at an annual rate of 0.9 percent in the second quarter of 2022 (table 1), according to the "advance" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the first quarter, real GDP decreased 1.6 percent.The GDP estimate released today is based on source data that are incomplete or subject to further revision by the source agency (refer to "Source Data for the Advance Estimate" on page 3). The "second" estimate for the second quarter, based on more complete data, will be released on August 25, 2022. [Full Release] Here is a look at Quarterly GDP since Q2 1947. Prior to 1947, GDP was an annual calculation. To be more precise, the chart shows is the annualized percentage change from the preceding quarter in Real (inflation-adjusted) Gross Domestic Product. We've also included recessions, which are determined by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER). Also illustrated are the 3.17% average (arithmetic mean) and the 10-year moving average, currently at 2.23%.Here is a log-scale chart of real GDP with an exponential regression, which helps us understand growth cycles since the 1947 inception of quarterly GDP. The latest number puts us 16.1% below trend.

GDP report shows U.S. economy shrank again in the second quarter - -The U.S. economy shrank again for a second straight quarter, at an annual rate of 0.9 percent, raising concerns the country may be heading into recession and compounding the Biden administration’s political challenges as it grapples with decades-high inflation. The new figures, released Thursday by the Bureau of Economic Analysis, come at a tumultuous time for the economy, due to surging inflation, though economists disagree on the likelihood of a full-fledged slump. In the past, six months of contraction has usually indicated a recession, although the official determination is made by a separate panel of experts. Yet, recessions don’t typically happen with unemployment at near record low levels.The second quarter slowdown reflected shifting consumer and business behaviors. Retailers bought fewer items, including cars, as consumers shifted their spending away from goods to services such as restaurants and hotels. Declines in home construction and government spending also contributed to the negative reading.The sour GDP report reflects ongoing problems with inflation, which have been at 40-year highs for several months, as well as weakening home sales and challenges for some corporate sectors, including tech and finance. Even the-red hot labor market is beginning to show cracks. Broader worries about war in Ukraine, the global financial outlook and aggressive interest-rate hikes have prompted many economists to predict a recession in the next year.“The numbers are baffling right now — we just don’t normally see declining GDP and rising employment,” said Betsey Stevenson, an economics professor at the University of Michigan and research associate at the National Bureau of Economic Research. “Employment is still growing. Consumer spending has not taken much of a hit. Households have stronger balance sheets than we normally have. Even with a negative number in the second quarter, it’s going to take some serious thought to figure out whether that’s really enough to say that we’re in a recession."The White House has pushed back against concerns about a possible downturn, with senior officials pointing to a strong labor market as a sign that the recovery remains on track.“Coming off of last year’s historic economic growth...it’s no surprise that the economy is slowing down as the Federal Reserve acts to bring down inflation,” Biden said in a statement on Thursday. “But even as we face historic global challenges, we are on the right path and we will come through this transition stronger and more secure.”Republican lawmakers were quick to blame the Biden administration’s stimulus spending for contributing to inflation and the broader economic contraction.“You don’t need a fancy economics degree to have seen this coming,” Rep. Kevin Hern of Oklahoma said in a statement on Thursday. “Biden’s spending over the last 18 months is directly responsible for the economic situation we’re in today.The U.S. economy unexpectedly slowed by an annualized rate of 1.6 percent in the first three months of the year, largely because of a mismatch in trade — with the United States importing far more than it was exporting — and a drop in inventory purchases by businesses that were still flush with leftover goods from the holidays.In many respects, the economy is in uncharted territory. The only time there have been six months of contraction without a recession appears to have been in 1947, according to Tara Sinclair, an economics professor at George Washington University.

GDP Sunk by Plunge in Private Investment, Drop in Government Spending. Consumer Spending Rose Despite Raging Inflation -By Wolf Richter Consumers once again outspent this raging inflation, and the trade deficit was less of a fiasco than in Q1. What dragged GDP into the negative, adjusted for inflation, were the drop in private investments, including a plunge in residential fixed investments, and the third drop in a row of government consumption and investment at the federal, state, and local levels.Overall, “real” GDP – adjusted for inflation and seasonality – fell by an annualized rate of 0.9% in Q2 from Q1, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis today, the second quarterly decline in a row, after the 1.6% annualized decline in Q1, following the super-heated growth in Q4 of 6.9%:Powell, yesterday at the FOMC press conference, was asked several times about the possibility of a negative GDP print today, and how it might change monetary policy. He brushed the issue off each time, in different ways, by saying among other things that the labor market was still very strong, and other portions of the economy were also holding up, though weakness had crept into some other portions, and a negative print today wouldn’t change anything. And Powell’s brushing off a negative GDP print was part of why this press conference was the most hawkish I’d ever seen.Today we got some of the complexity – confirming what Powell had indicated: Consumer spending is hanging in there, outdoing this raging inflation, in part due to the strong labor market and sharply rising wages. What caused GDP to drop was private investment, including the plunge in residential investment, and a sustained pull-back by federal, state, and local governments.Not adjusted for inflation: Nominal GDP. Measured in “current” dollars, “nominal” GDP jumped by an annual rate of 7.8% to $24.8 trillion. This shows how inflation is eating everyone’s lunch:Consumer spending grew, adjusted for inflation, by an annual rate of 1.0% in Q2, after the 1.8% growth in Q1. This was below the normal growth range that prevailed between the Great Recession and the pandemic, and shows that consumers struggled to outspend this raging inflation but still managed to do it.Consumer spending as a percent of total GDP, at 70.7%, was higher than normal (68-69%) as other factors in GDP, particularly private investment and government spending weakened further and ended up with a smaller than normal share.Government consumption and investment fell, adjusted for inflation, by 1.9% (annualized) in Q2, after the 2.9% drop in Q1, and the 2.6% drop in Q4.Federal government: -3.2%, driven by a plunge in nondefense spending. Fifth quarter in a row of declines, after the binge in 2020 and early 2021:

• National defense: +2.5% after six quarters of declines, incl. -9.9% in Q4.
• Nondefense: -10.5% in Q1, fifth month in a row of declines.

State and local government: -1.2%, third quarterly decline in a row.Government consumption and investment does not include salaries paid to government employees, transfer payments to consumers (stimulus payments, unemployment payments, Social Security payments, etc.), and other direct payments to consumers. Those payments enter GDP when consumers and businesses spend or invest this money.The chart shows the annual rate of spending per quarter, expressed in 2012 dollars that are used to adjust for inflation. On this basis, inflation-adjusted government consumption and investment is back where it had been in Q4 2019 and in 2010: Gross private domestic investment plunged by 13.5% (adjusted for inflation, annualized), after the large increases in the three prior quarters, including +36.7% spike in Q4:

• Nonresidential fixed investments: -0.1%, composed of:
  • Structures: -11.7%, fifth quarterly decline in a row.
  • Equipment: -2.7%, after two quarters of gains.
  • Intellectual property products (software, etc.): +9.2%, eighth quarterly big increase in a row.
• Residential fixed investment: -14.0%, after two quarterly gains.

Private inventories rose by 2.9%, adjusted for inflation. That’s a good thing, after the shortages during the pandemic. Inventories remain below trend, with shortages in some segments, and they will continue to rise back toward pre-pandemic trend (green line) as these industries get their supply chains untangled. This was the third quarterly increase in a row, but smaller than the 7.1% and 6.8% jumps in the prior two quarters:n The Trade Deficit in goods & services was less terrible than the freak show in Q1, unwinding $70 billion of the $192 billion plunge in Q2 in 2012 dollars, annualized.

A Few Comments on Q2 GDP and Investment -- Note: The second graph - residential investment as a percent of GDP - is useful in predicting a Fed induced recession. RI as a percent of GDP usually turns down well in advance of a recession. This will be something to watch. Earlier from the BEA: Gross Domestic Product, Second Quarter 2022 (Advance Estimate) Real gross domestic product (GDP) decreased at an annual rate of 0.9 percent in the second quarter of 2022, according to the "advance" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the first quarter, real GDP decreased 1.6 percent. ...The decrease in real GDP reflected decreases in private inventory investment, residential fixed investment, federal government spending, state and local government spending, and nonresidential fixed investment that were partly offset by increases in exports and personal consumption expenditures (PCE). Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, increased. The advance Q2 GDP report, at -0.9% annualized, was below expectations, primarily due to a negative impact from a decrease in inventories. Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased at a 1.0% annualized rate in Q2. (sic)The graph below shows the contribution to GDP from residential investment, equipment and software, and nonresidential structures (3 quarter trailing average). This is important to follow because residential investment tends to lead the economy, equipment and software is generally coincident, and nonresidential structure investment trails the economy.In the graph, red is residential, green is equipment and software, and blue is investment in non-residential structures. So, the usual pattern - both into and out of recessions is - red, green, blue.Of course - with the sudden economic stop due to COVID-19 - the usual pattern didn't apply.The dashed gray line is the contribution from the change in private inventories. Residential investment (RI) decreased at a 14.0% annual rate in Q2. Equipment investment decreased at a 2.7% annual rate, and investment in non-residential structures decreased at a 11.7% annual rate. The contribution to Q2 GDP from investment in private inventories was -2.01 percentage points.On a 3-quarter trailing average basis, RI (red) is down, equipment (green) is up, and nonresidential structures (blue) is still down.The second graph shows residential investment as a percent of GDP. Note: Residential investment (RI) includes new single-family structures, multifamily structures, home improvement, broker's commissions, and a few minor categories. The third graph shows non-residential investment in structures, equipment and "intellectual property products". Investment in non-residential structures decreased in Q2 as a percent GDP.

Why the U.S. economy shrank in the first quarter of 2022 - The U.S. economy shrank at an annualized rate of 0.9 percent between April and June, marking two consecutive quarters of negative growth. Six months of contraction usually signals a recession.The contraction comes as other markers of the economy — such as the job market and consumer spending — are still showing signs of strength. That leaves policymakers, economists, businesses and families to make sense of how the economy is doing, and what the latest GDP report tells us about where we go from here.Here are some ways to think about the economic growth data, against the backdrop of high inflation, a tight labor market and growing risks of a recession.To recap, the U.S. economy abruptly shrank at the beginning of the pandemic, then boomeranged in 2021. Last year, the economy grew by 5.7 percent, the fastest full-year clip since 1984.Economists didn’t expect the economy to keep that same momentum this year, as federal stimulus programs wore off, and the Federal Reserve moved to raise interest rates to slow growth and get a handle on soaring prices. But many were still caught off-guard by the stark reversal in the first three months of this year, when the economy slowed by an annualized rate of 1.6 percent. Businesses were cutting back on inventory purchases after overstocking for the holidays, and imports far outpaced exports. At the time, economists widely dismissed that slump as a fluke: Consumer spending — which makes more than two-thirds of the economy — remained healthy, and there were few signs of overall deterioration.But the economy appears to have taken a turn for the worse. The second-quarter GDP report shows declines across many parts of the economy, spanning both businesses and households, and could signal that the country is already in a recession.It isn’t a done deal, though. The official recession call will be made by apanel of experts at the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), which will take into account a number of factors such as unemployment (which is near record lows) and personal income levels (which are declining).After stocking up on too many goods last year — and miscalculating just how much stuff Americans would want to purchase — retailers are buying fewer items for their shelves. That slowdown in inventory purchasing, particularly for cars, is one of the big factors driving the second-quarter drop in GDP. Big-box retailers such as Target and Gap have all reported they have far more inventory than they need, which is why they aren’t loading up on more.But the looming problem is there’s new evidence that inflation is changing the way families are shopping, buying more necessities and fewer goods such as clothing and electronics, which is also reflected in the GDP report. Walmart rattled markets this week, when it slashed its quarterly and full-year profit forecasts. They said they could lose money because families are buying fewer of the things that Walmart tends to make money on, which could also happen at other retailers as demand weakens. That could lead to a bigger drop-off in inventory purchases in coming months.The Federal Reserve has raised interest rates four times this year, most recently Wednesday, in hopes of calming the economy enough to curb inflation. One of the most direct impacts of those rate hikes has been a slowdown in housing and construction.As the cost of lending gets more expensive, that means loans to housing developers and would-be homeowners are also getting a lot more expensive. Indeed, housing starts in June fell to a nine-month low, andpermits for new construction also fell, according to Commerce Department data from last week.Indeed the GDP report also showed that activity in single-family construction fell. Still, multifamily construction gained ground as rising rents burnish the appeal of apartment projects, cushioning the overall decline.Construction and investments in homes, as well as other types of buildings including hotels, warehouses and factories, contributed to the second-quarter contraction. There were notable declines in related areas, such as brokers’ commissions, that played a role in the shrinking economy.

Yellen says the economy is not in a recession despite GDP slump -- Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said Thursday the U.S. economy is in a state of transition, not recession, despite two consecutive quarters of negative growth. Recession, Yellen insisted, is a "broad-based weakening of our economy" that includes substantial layoffs, business closures, strains in household finances and a slowdown in private sector activity. "That is not what we are seeing right now," she said during an afternoon news conference at the Treasury. "When you look at the economy, job creation is continuing, household finances remain strong, consumers are spending and businesses are growing."Those comments, though, came on the same day that the Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis reported that gross domestic product, the broadest measure of economic activity, fell 0.9% in the second quarter.Coming on the heels of a 1.6% contraction in the first quarter, the two straight declines meet a commonly used definition of recession. The National Bureau of Economic Research, however, is the official arbiter of recessions, and likely won't rule for months.Yellen started her remarks with a list of the administration's economic accomplishments, including nonfarm payroll growth of more than 9 million.But inflation has proven the bigger obstacle, rising to 9.1% in June while economic growth has failed to keep up. Consumer and business confidence levels have plunged, with recent surveys showing a solid majority of Americans believe the country is in recession.Yellen acknowledged the burden that higher prices carry and said the administration is "laser-focused" on addressing the situation."We've entered a new phase in our recovery focused on achieving steady, stable growth without sacrificing the gains of the last 18 months," she said. "We know there are challenges ahead of us. Growth is slowing globally. Inflation remains unacceptably high, and it's this administration's top priority to bring it down." President Joe Biden and Yellen both touted the possibilities of a new bill that Democratic lawmakers apparently have agreed on to fight inflation. The legislation is aimed at raising tax revenue, lowering drug costs and investing in renewable energy. Yellen noted that while the Federal Reserve, which she chaired from 2014-18, has "the primary role in bringing down inflation, the president and I are committed to taking action do drive down costs and protect Americans from the global pressures we face." The Fed has raised rates four times this year, for a total of 2.25 percentage points, and likely will add more increases later in the year. Yellen attributed rising inflation to the war in Ukraine, supply chain problems and the Covid pandemic. She did not discuss the impact that monetary and fiscal stimulus had on price pressures.

The economy may look like it's in recession, but we still don't know for sure -- The second-quarter GDP report brought the economy in line with a common definition of recession. But we won't know for sure if it officially is declared one at least for months.That's because the official arbiter in such matters is the Business Cycle Dating Committee of the National Bureau of Economic Research, and itdoesn't use the same definition as the one commonly accepted of at least two consecutive quarters of negative growth.Rather, the NBER defines recession as "a significant decline in economic activity that is spread across the economy and lasts more than a few months."That could mean consecutive quarters of decline. In fact, every time since 1948 that GDP has fallen for at least two straight quarters, the NBER ultimately has declared a recession. Second-quarter GDP dropped 0.9%, while the first quarter declined by 1.6%, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis.But the NBER doesn't even use GDP as a major factor in its thinking, and it declared a recession in 2001 without there being consecutive declines.If we're in a recession, continue to buy stocks, says Matrix's David KatzAnd get ready for a surprise again this time: There are virtually no major Wall Street economists who expect the NBER to say the U.S. economy was in recession during the first half of 2022."We weren't in a recession for the first half of the year, but odds are rising we will be by the end of the year," said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Analytics.Like his cohorts on the Street, Zandi said the bustling jobs market — which even with 457,000 jobs a month added this year is still not back to pre-Covid levels — is the primary reason the NBER won't declare a recession. But there are others."We created too many jobs. We had record-low layoffs, we had record-high unfilled positions. Consumer spending, business investment, were all positive," he said. "I just don't see them declaring a recession."Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said Wednesday he doesn't think the economy was in a true recession, and he even questioned the accuracy of the GDP data."What we have right now doesn't seem like" a recession, Powell said. "And the real reason is that the labor market is just sending such a signal of economic strength that it makes you really question the GDP data."

Is this a recession? by Dr. James Hamilton - The Bureau of Economic Analysis announced today that seasonally adjusted U.S. real GDP fell at a 0.9% annual rate in the first quarter. That makes two quarters in a row of falling real GDP, which is one rule of thumb for declaring the economy to be in a recession. The current economic weakness could certainly develop into a recession. But the evidence isn’t convincing that a recession is already under way.Real GDP growth at an annual rate, 1947:Q2-2022:Q2, with the historical average (3.1%) in blue. Calculated as 400 times the difference in the natural log of GDP from the previous quarter.The new data raised the Econbrowser recession indicator index up to 37.4%, flashing a clear warning sign. This is an assessment of the situation of the economy in the previous quarter (namely 2022:Q1). The index takes into account the fact that we’ve now seen two consecutive quarters of falling GDP, but still finds the evidence inconclusive as to whether the U.S. economy started a recession in the first quarter. When Marcelle Chauvet and I first developed this index 17 years ago, we announced that we would only declare a recession to have started when the index rises to 65% (see pages 14-15 in our original paper). If the Q3 GDP report causes the index to rise above 65%, we would announce a recession at that time, and also use the full range of revised historical data available at that time to determine the date at which the recession likely started. Here at Econbrowser we’ve followed that procedure to the letter as the data unfolded in real time over the last 17 years, successfully dating in real time the beginning and end of the two recessions since we started this blog.GDP-based recession indicator index. The plotted value for each date is based solely on the GDP numbers that were publicly available as of one quarter after the indicated date, with 2022:Q1 the last date shown on the graph. Shaded regions represent the NBER’s dates for recessions, which dates were not used in any way in constructing the index.This index is based on the GDP data alone. But other indicators reinforce the conclusion that you can’t clearly say that a recession has already started. A sharp rise in the unemployment rate is one of the defining features of every historical recession. How could we be 6 months into a recession with the unemployment rate still at 3.6%?Ten out of the twelve recessions in the United States since World War II were preceded by a sharp spike up in the price of crude petroleum. If 2022 does develop into a full-blown recession, that will bring the count up to 11 out of 13. One of the mechanisms by which oil price spikes contributed to historical downturns was by causing a significant souring in consumer sentiment. That’s certainly been part of the story this time as well. Top panel: real price of oil (WTI divided by CPI) in 2022 dollars. Bottom panel: University of Michigan survey of consumer sentiment. Monthly, 1978:M1 to 2022:M6. Worried consumers surely contributed to the weak growth in real consumption spending so far this year. But the biggest single factor in the negative GDP growth in Q2 was a drawdown in inventories. More goods were sold than produced. A build-up in inventories was a factor making 2021:Q4 growth look strong and the draw-down now is a factor making 2022:Q2 growth weak. Real final sales have been more stable over the last year than real GDP. And year-over-year GDP growth is not quite so alarming. A curious feature in the Q2 GDP numbers was seemingly strong exports. A fifth of the $100 B increase in real exports in Q2 was attributed to petroleum and petroleum products. But this just corrects an anomalous drop in petroleum exports in the Q1 report. Petroleum exports are now back where they were in Q4 of last year. My view is that quarter-to-quarter export growth was stronger than reported in Q1 and weaker than reported in Q2.

Long leading indicators embedded in Q2 GDP suggest a recession is near at hand - Where does the economy go from here? If it’s not in recession, it isn’t doing much better. There are two components of GDP which are helpful in finding out what lies ahead: real residential fixed investment (housing) and proprietors income (a proxy for business profits). Both of these have long and good track records as helping forecast the economy one year in advance. Let’s start with real residential fixed investment. As was indicated in the BEA’s accompanying graph this morning, it was one of the two worst sectors of the economy in the 2nd Quarter, down -3.7%: Nominal and real residential fixed investment as a share of GDP (the actual measurement that is part of the long leading indicators) also both declined sharply: Recessions have typically happened on average 7 quarters after the last peak in this measure, which took place in Q1 2021. This puts the most likely onset of a recession in Q4 of this year. The news is much more equivocal when it comes to proprietors’ income. Frequently both corporate profits and proprietors’ income turn together, but sometimes proprietors’ income lags by 1 or 2 Quarters. But the actual leading metric deflates for unit labor costs, which also aren’t known yet for Q2. So here is a bar diagram for the last 21 months of the Quarterly % change in corporate profits (blue), proprietors’ income (dark purple), and unit labor costs (red): If unit labor costs rise in accord with their last 3 quarters, then proprietors’ income will still be slightly positive for the Quarter, but still below their peak in Q2 2021. In other words, our proxy for corporate profits indicates that a recession could begin at any time, since the last peak was 1 year ago. In addition to the above two long leading components of GDP, real money supply for June was reported on Tuesday, and the news wasn’t good there, either. Recessions have typically occurred one year or more after real M1 turns negative, or real M2 is up by less than 2.5% from one year previous. Here’s what they look like now: Real M1 and M2 are consistent with an onset of recession next spring. In short, the long leading indicators that were updated this week suggest that a recession, if not here now, is nevertheless likely near at hand.

Senate Dems set to roll out funding bills as shutdown threat approaches - Senate Democrats are preparing to unveil sweeping legislation in the days ahead on how to keep the government running for the next fiscal year, even as negotiators already write off chances of the chamber’s annual appropriations bills passing by the current Sept. 30 deadline to avoid a shutdown. Negotiators say they’re on track to release appropriations bills this week in the upper chamber, after months of hearings and as the House has already passed half of the dozen annual funding bills in recent weeks. But with roughly two months to go, a lack of an agreement on a top-line number, disagreements over defense funding and prickly legislative riders in areas like abortion mean appropriators have their work cut out for them. “I think it’s going to be a CR in September,” said Sen. Brian Schatz (D-Hawaii), chairman of the Senate Appropriations transportation subcommittee, referring to a continuing resolution, which will allow the government to remain funded at the current year’s fiscal spending levels to buy time for spending talks. Schatz said he thinks Congress will likely pass its funding bills after the midterm elections in November. “It’s the normal discussion about defense and nondefense, and definitional questions within,” Schatz said. “But that’s why it always feels impossible and then we always have a deal.” House negotiators passed their own version of the fiscal 2023 defense bill that provided about $761.7 billion in total funding last month. The figure is a $32.2 billion jump from the current fiscal year and also on par with what Biden asked for in his budget request. But that number for defense is well below what Republicans say is necessary for the coming fiscal year. In remarks to reporters last week, Sen. Richard Shelby (Ala.), the top Republican on the Senate Appropriations Committee, said he plans to look “closely” at proposed dollars in the defense spending bill set to be unveiled soon. “Do they meet this challenge of inflation to begin with?” Shelby said. “And we’re not sure about that. Nobody’s got their number around that.” Shelby has pointed to the fiscal 2023 National Defense Authorization Act that passed the Senate Armed Services Committee, which provided a $45 billion increase above Biden’s request for defense dollars, as “a good step in the right direction.” But he has signaled Senate Republicans aren’t ready to commit to a hard figure just yet, telling The Hill last week that they hadn’t “put a number on it yet.”

Manchin veto of climate bill deals setback to coal miners -When Sen. Joe Manchin sank climate legislation earlier this month, he also dashed a major priority for some of his closest allies: coal miners.Coal miners wanted a fix to be added in the Democrats-only budget reconciliation bill that would have helped increase payouts for miners suffering from black lung disease.But Manchin, a West Virginia Democrat who has made millions from the coal business, decided earlier this month he couldn’t support climate-focused portions of the bill ahead of the August recess. That decision has led to a scaled-back version of the bill that doesn’t include coal-mining language.At the heart of the matter is the Black Lung Disability Trust Fund, which helps cover health benefits to former and current coal miners suffering from black lung, a respiratory illness that has been described as a “resurgent epidemic”(Greenwire, June 9).Retired miners and their families rely on benefit payouts to supplement their retirement funds to pay for the oxygen and medication. The debilitating respiratory illness is caused by breathing in coal dust and silica.But Congress failed to renew the rate for the excise tax that coal companies pay to fill up the trust fund last year, drastically reducing how much money goes into it.Manchin, the Energy and Natural Resources chair, has backed a decadelong extension to the black lung excise tax in a standalone bill, S. 2810 (E&E Daily, Sept. 24, 2021). It’s unclear whether the black lung language was part of now-abandoned reconciliation discussions.

 Manchin And Dems Reach Deal On Reconciliation Package, Call It "Inflation Reduction Act" - Sen. Joe Manchin (D-WV) on Wednesday announced that he's reached a deal with Sen. Chuck Schumer (D-NY) to advance legislation aimed at combating inflation by lowering healthcare costs and paying down the national debt."We must be honest about the economic reality America now faces if we want to avoid fanning the flames of inflation," he said in a statement. "At its core, the purpose of reconciliation is to get our economic and fiscal house in order. Contrary to foolish talk otherwise, America cannot spend its way out of debt or out of inflation."The bill, the "Inflation Reduction Act of 2022" is scant on details, though Manchin says the bill will "cut the inflation taxes Americans are paying, lower the cost of health insurance and prescription drugs, and ensure our country invests in the energy security and climate change solutions we need to remain a global superpower through innovation rather than elimination."It "would dedicate hundreds of billions of dollars to deficit reduction by adopting a tax policy that protects small businesses and working-class Americans while ensuring that large corporations and the ultra-wealthy pay their fair share in taxes" As WaPo notes, "The measure also is expected to include provisions that aim to lower prescription drug costs for seniors, impose minimum taxes on corporations and raise money to lower the federal deficit."

Manchin, Dems reach deal on climate legislation -Democratic leaders have reached an agreement with Senator Joe Manchin of West Virginia on a package to fund climate action, capping off a contentious battle over a bill that just a week agoseemed dead in the water. Manchin’s office announced that he would vote for the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022, which along with instating a minimum tax on corporations and reforming prescription drug pricing, would funnel $369 billion toward tackling “energy security and climate change,” according to a summary of the bill. The proposal claims these investments would reduce carbon emissions by roughly 40 percent by 2030, falling short of Biden’s goal to slash them by ​​at least 50 percent. The bill would not rule out additional fossil fuel infrastructure, Manchin was careful to say, while also investing in hydrogen, nuclear power, and renewable energy. “I support a plan that will advance a realistic energy and climate policy that lowers prices today and strategically invests in the long game,” he said in a press release. “As the super power of the world, it is vital we not undermine our super power status by removing dependable and affordable fossil fuel energy before new technologies are ready to reliably carry the load.” The release also notes that Congress is committed to considering “commonsense permitting reforms” for energy infrastructure this fall — a possible indication that the embattled Mountain Valley Pipeline, which would carry natural gas from shale fields in West Virginia to southern Virginia and has Manchin’s support, could end up being approved. President Biden celebrated the agreement, confirming that he spoke with Manchin and Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer Wednesday. The bill “will improve our energy security and tackle the climate crisis – by providing tax credits and investments for energy projects,” he said in a statement. “This will create thousands of new jobs and help lower energy costs in the future. Early reactions from climate advocates were mixed, with some signaling support for the agreement and others saying it falls short. Wenonah Hauter, executive director of the political nonprofit Food & Water Action, argued that the deal would “prop up fossil fuels and promote the various false climate solutions beloved by industry.”

‘Holy s--t’: Surprise Senate deal sets stage for record climate change package - Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer and Sen. Joe Manchin salvaged a deal on Wednesday for a bill that includes the biggest climate spending package in U.S. history, devoting hundreds of billions of dollars to clean energy technologies. Their agreement, which came after Manchin had rejected climate and energy measures two weeks ago under the Democrats’ reconciliation package, is aimed at slashing carbon emissions an estimated 40 percent from 2005 levels economy-wide by 2030. But it also comes with plans to ease rules that the West Virginia senator has said are constricting fossil fuel production and slowing needed upgrades to the power grid. “Holy shit,” said Tiernan Sittenfeld, senior vice president of government affairs with the League of Conservation Voters. “This deal is coming not a moment too soon.” Lawmakers and climate advocates — who had been hammering Manchin in recent days for rejecting the climate measures because of inflation concerns — were ecstatic at the surprise announcement. “There’s been a ton of work done over the last two weeks to make the case to Sen. Manchin that this package is not inflationary and address his concerns in a serious way,” said Jason Walsh, executive director of the BlueGreen Alliance, a coalition of labor and environmental groups. “And we’re just thrilled that we’re at this moment,” he added. People familiar with the effort to bring Manchin back to the table on climate said there had been an intensive effort to convince him of the merits of supporting the new technologies — including from company executives who came forward with new plans to build manufacturing in West Virginia. Labor leaders and experts from universities were also part of the effort, as was former Treasury Secretary and inflation hawk Larry Summers, who met with Manchin in recent days, said Walsh. The bill, if passed, would be a major victory for President Joe Biden’s climate agenda that had suffered a serious setback at the hands of the Supreme Court in June, and could help generate new enthusiasm from Democratic voters who had grown frustrated with the administration’s lack of success.

Oil, Gas Industry Methane Fee Survives in Manchin Spending Deal - The oil and gas industry would face a first-time fee on the excess emission of methane under a breakthrough spending agreement reached on Wednesday by Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer and Senator Joe Manchin. Methane leaking from oil and gas wells, pipelines and an array of other infrastructure would lead to fees rising to as much as $1,500 a ton in 2026 for some operators, according to the text of the agreement, which is set for a Senate vote as soon as next week.

Climate activists optimistic about Manchin-Schumer deal | Climate activists are feeling hopeful after Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) and Majority Leader Charles Schumer (D-N.Y.) reached an agreement to move forward with legislation that includes energy and climate provisions. While the senators did not specify exactly what will be in the package, they said it will cut carbon emissions by approximately 40 percent by 2030 and will spend $369.75 billion on energy security and climate change programs over 10 years. Manchin indicated that this spending could help various types of energy, including fossil fuels, in addition to renewables. As it previously looked like congressional climate change legislation may have been dead, the news was generally met with cheers by activists. “Wow! We are so excited that Majority Leader Schumer and Senator Manchin have reached a deal that includes climate investments to reduce carbon emissions by roughly 40 percent by 2030, and we are eager to see the details,” said Tiernan Sittenfeld, senior vice president of government affairs at the League of Conservation Voters, in a statement. “Passing a climate bill should be Congress’ number one priority. The reported agreement between Senator Manchin and Leader Schumer presents the opportunity for a major breakthrough in America’s fight against climate change,” Jamal Raad, executive director of Evergreen Action, said in a statement. Melinda Pierce, the Sierra Club’s legislative director, said in a statement that her group was “encouraged” by the development.

Climate groups react to Manchin’s surprise turnaround on reconciliation bill -Environmental groups reacted with surprise after U.S. Senate Democrats struck a deal on sweeping legislation to address climate change and clean energy, a bill that could help curb the country's carbon emissions by 40% by the end of the decade.After lengthy negotiations, Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., and Sen. Joe Manchin, D-W.Va., on Wednesday announced a long-anticipated reconciliation package that would provide $369 billion in funding for curbing emissions, manufacturing clean energy products and advancing environmental justice initiatives, among other things.Early versions of the bill included $555 billion in tax breaks for clean energy that would cut carbon emissions. Still, clean energy backers and climate groups praised the new deal for including clean energy tax credits that could create thousands of new jobs and boost domestic renewable energy."The entire clean energy industry just breathed an enormous sigh of relief," said Heather Zichal, the head of American Clean Power, a group of renewable energy companies. "This is an 11th hour reprieve for climate action and clean energy jobs, and America's biggest legislative moment for climate and energy policy."Climate activists pointed to a slew of victories in the legislation, including $60 billion for environmental justice programs, $20 billion for climate-friendly agriculture practices and billions of dollars to bolster domestic manufacturing in batteries, solar energy and electric vehicles."To borrow President Biden's line, this is a big f-----g deal," Sierra Club President Ramón Cruz said in a statement. "This legislation will save money for families across the country, it will ensure each and every one of us is able to live and work in a healthy community, and it will create good, sustainable jobs."Manish Bapna, president and CEO of the Natural Resources Defense Council, called the agreement the "ultimate clean energy comeback — the strongest climate action yet in the moment we need it most."He reserved some criticism, however. "This is not the bill we would have written. It's time to break, not deepen, our dependence on fossil fuels and all the damage and danger they bring," Bapna said in a statement. "But this is a package we can't afford to reject."However, some groups more strongly condemned the support for fossil fuel projects in the agreement, specifically provisions that would mandate new oil and gas leasing in the Gulf of Mexico and Alaska. Manchin, who comes from the coal-rich West Virginia, has argued that drilling in these areas is neccesary for the country's energy independence.

Democrats open to Manchin's push for permitting reform - - Democratic leaders yesterday said a deal on a permitting was crucial in getting West Virginia Democratic Sen. Joe Manchin to “yes” on a separate climate and social spending package. And while not everyone is overjoyed with it, some see a silver lining. “The goal was to do permitting reform, not just for fossil fuel pipelines but for transmission lines,” said Sen. John Hickenlooper (D-Colo.). “They’re kind of bundling those together.” Manchin has signaled that without permitting reform, there would be no deal. As for details on the reform, there were few yesterday: Manchin’s office said none of the provisions has been made public. The changes would be part of separate legislation requiring 60 votes, rather than a simple majority used under the budget reconciliation process for the climate package. Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) told reporters yesterday that Manchin had two major asks: “This was the other thing, other than leasing, that Senator Manchin asked for,” he said. “We came together on a provision. It has a few good things in it.” Still, Schumer acknowledged the reality that streamlining the permitting process would help unleash fossil fuels. “There’s some kinds of permitting that get in the way of clean energy, as well,” he said.

What's in the Democrats' climate and energy legislation – - Senate Democrats struck a deal with West Virginia Sen. Joe Manchin on Thursday for an expansive bill that includes the biggest package in U.S. history to address climate change. The bill, H.R. 5376 (117), dubbed the “Inflation Reduction Act of 2022,” would spend nearly $370 billion on a raft of tax credits to help stimulate adoption of clean energy technologies, as well as spending for low-income and minority communities that suffer disproportionately from pollution. It also calls for holding lease sales for oil and gas production on federal land and water, while establishing fines for excessive methane pollution. Here’s a breakdown of what’s in the bill expected to reach the Senate floor next week:

• Clean energy tax credits: The agreement includes 10-year extensions of existing credits for wind and solar, as well as provisions for heat pumps, rooftop solar and standalone energy storage, like batteries. The credits also are tied to prevailing wage and domestic content requirements — a bid to help ensure the clean energy transition is built by a unionized workforce and through a domestic supply chain.
• EVs The package also would set aside financing and credits to promote electric vehicle manufacturing. It calls for $2 billion in grants to help convert existing auto manufacturing factories into ones that make electric vehicles and $20 billion of loans for new clean vehicle manufacturing facilities. In another win for Manchin, the bill extends credits to hydrogen-fueled cars in addition to EVs.
• Domestic clean energy manufacturing The package includes a five-year, $60 billion production tax credit that would send payments directly to companies involved in clean energy manufacturing. Companies, labor unions and environmental advocates made the case to Manchin that production tax credits for developing a clean energy manufacturing base in the U.S. could bring jobs and reduce dependence on foreign nations like China for energy imports.
• Environmental justice: The package includes $60 billion for environmental justice, sending new investments to communities long exposed to greater levels of pollution than wealthier and often whiter areas. The spending helps President Joe Biden make good on his pledge to deliver at least 40 percent of climate and environmental benefits to such areas, which tend to be low-income or communities of color. Manchin’s state also could benefit: The state’s coal-mining legacy has fouled rivers and the air, and incomes have cratered along with coal’s withering output.
• Methane fee - Oil and gas companies that emit more than 25,000 metric tons of carbon dioxide equivalent annually will be fined beginning in 2025 if their methane leakage rate exceeds a certain threshold. The fee would escalate over time from $900 per metric ton of emissions to $1,500 beginning in 2027, and cover wide swaths of the industry: emissions at the wellhead, compressor stations, gathering stations, onshore transmission pipelines and both underground and liquefied natural gas storage sites.
• Offshore wind: Manchin, a long-time advocate for an all-of-the-above energy strategy, touted the agreement as one that “does not arbitrarily shut off our abundant fossil fuels.” That includes new measures that would tie offshore wind leasing to previous auctions for oil and gas — a provision seemingly meant to ensure that any presidential administration can not favor one technology over the other.
• Oil and gas: The bill includes some significant wins for the oil and gas industry, at the behest of Manchin, who argues the U.S. must continue to develop fossil fuels on federal lands to ensure adequate domestic supply. It would reinstate an offshore oil and gas lease sale conducted in the Gulf of Mexico last year that had its result vacated by a federal judge due to insufficient environmental review. The lease sale of 80 million acres had represented the largest such auction in U.S. history, drawing attacks from environmental groups who said it violated Biden’s climate promises.The legislation also requires the administration to conduct two more lease sales in the Gulf and another in Alaska’s Cook Inlet that Biden had canceled in May.
• Defense Production Act The legislation includes $500 million in funding to support Biden’s invoking of the Defense Production Act to produce heat pumps and spur critical minerals processing projects.

What’s in the Charles Schumer-Joe Manchin ‘Inflation Reduction Act’ - Major changes to the Affordable Care Act. The nation’s biggest-ever climate bill. The largest tax hike on corporations in decades. And dozens of lesser-known provisions that will affect millions of Americans. If enacted, the legislation released Wednesday night in a surprise agreement between Sen. Joe Manchin III (D-W.Va.) and Senate Majority Leader Charles E. Schumer (D-N.Y.) would represent one of the most consequential pieces of economic policy in recent U.S. history — though still far smaller than the $3 trillion the Biden administration initially sought.The nonpartisan Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget estimates that the bill would put about $385 billion into combating climate change and bolstering U.S. energy production through changes that would encourage nearly the whole economy to cut carbon emissions. With the planet rapidly warming, Schumer and Manchin say the bill would reduce carbon emissions by roughly 40 percent by 2030, close to President Biden’s goal of cutting U.S. emissions by at least 50 to 52 percent below 2005 levels by 2030. Manchin also emphasized that it would spur American energy independence more broadly, including by encouraging natural gas, as the war in Ukraine has exposed domestic reliance on petrostates’ fossil fuel productionThe bill uses two main levers: major new incentives for private industry to produce far more renewable energy, and other incentives for households to transform their energy use and consumption. Democrats say this second set of incentives will also offer immediate consumer relief for the higher energy prices that have bedeviled the Biden administration.The agreement would also raise roughly $470 billion through new tax provisions, the budget group estimates — the biggest of which will fall on the country’s large corporations. After years of rising concern about widening wealth inequality, Democrats failed in their efforts to repeal Republicans’ 2017 tax law. The new bill leaves intact most of the corporate and individual income tax cuts President Donald Trump signed into law, largely because Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (D-Ariz.) had insisted on leaving them untouched.But it would still raise taxes significantly, and it would give the badly underfunded Internal Revenue Service its biggest budget increase in its history.“This would certainly be the biggest corporate tax increase in decades,” said Steve Wamhoff, a tax expert at Institute on Taxation and Economic Policy, a left-leaning think tank. “We’ve had decades of tax policy benefiting the rich, but this is really the first attempt to raise revenue in a progressive way that would begin to combat wealth and income inequality.”On health care, Democrats campaigned in 2020 on major changes, and this deal fulfills two major pledges: Allowing Medicare to negotiate the price of prescription drugs, and making health care more affordable for millions of Americans.It falls short on plugging one of the biggest gaps of the Affordable Care Act and other key items long sought by the party’s more liberal members. Still, it amounts to the biggest changes to the health system in roughly a decade.The bill leaves out many key policy ambitions of Democrats — excluding, for instance, plans for new child care, housing, eldercare and paid-leave programs. But after months of gridlock and false starts, Democrats hope this agreement will finally become law.

A climate bill with fossil fuel victories - The new climate and energy bill shaped largely by Sen. Joe Manchin includes significant wins for the fossil fuel industry that could extend carbon emissions for decades to come. The legislation seeks to expand domestic oil and gas production while, in some cases, making the development of clean energy resources contingent on meeting fossil fuel targets. It also proposes increased hydrogen production and offers renewable energy tax credits for both nuclear and carbon capture and storage. And some provisions are conditioned on Democrats’ backing another measure that would speed up permitting for pipelines, transmission lines and other energy infrastructure. Yesterday, President Joe Biden praised the bill and said it would be a meaningful step toward his goal of cutting emissions 50 percent by 2030, without mentioning the benefits it would provide to long-term fossil fuel projects. Manchin offered a different description of the bill, which he introduced Wednesday with Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.). The conservative West Virginia Democrat said the legislation was designed to ensure that fossil fuel resources would not be eliminated in the next decade. His office said in a statement that the measure would “hold the Administration’s feet to the fire to ensure they continue substantial oil and gas leasing.” “We’ve got to have a robust fossil energy that does it better than anywhere in the world until we transition with the new technology — and that will happen, so you have to invest robustly in that also,” Manchin told reporters yesterday. The bill, if passed, stands to be the largest piece of climate legislation so far adopted in the United States, reversing years of political impasses over global warming. The measure is estimated to reduce carbon emissions 40 percent by 2030, putting Biden’s goal of halving U.S. greenhouse gas emissions within reach. Yet Manchin, who has personally profited from his family business that supplies coal to one of the most carbon intensive power plants of its size in West Virginia, ensured that the legislation offered a number of victories to the fossil fuel industry. The bill would make the development of wind and solar on federal lands, and in federal waters, contingent on the Interior Department leasing 2 million acres of public land, and 60 million acres of offshore areas, to the oil and gas industry annually for the next decade. It would also mandate lease sales in the Gulf of Mexico and off the coast of Alaska. Republicans and conservative media accused Manchin and Biden yesterday for driving up inflation. But a trade group for the fossil fuel industry, the American Petroleum Institute, was less critical. “While there are some improved provisions in the spending package released last night, we oppose policies that increase taxes and discourage investment in America’s oil and natural gas,” Amanda Eversole, API’s executive vice president, said in a statement. The legislation includes a methane fee that would rise to $1,500 a ton in 2026, potentially forcing the industry to address a major contributor to climate change. In return, the bill would provide $1.5 billion to energy companies to help control methane emissions. There is a $7,500 credit for people who buy clean vehicles, including electric and hydrogen-powered cars. Manchin has long pushed for hydrogen vehicles, and he wants the federal government to help build a hydrogen hub in West Virginia. The natural gas industry is promoting hydrogen as a climate solution; the fuel is mostly produced using a process that’s powered by gas. Hydrogen can also be made with renewable energy. “Hydrogen is going to be a big one here because we believe that’s a good transition, a good clean fuel that we’re able to go to that’s going to help our states and that’s going to help other states,” Manchin said yesterday. There are additional tax credits for carbon capture projects — a process that could prevent emissions from being released into the atmosphere — while potentially forestalling the closure of power plants powered by fossil fuels. That includes more funding for the 45Q tax credit for carbon capture and storage. The bill is a “climate suicide pact,” said Brett Hartl, government affairs director at the Center for Biological Diversity. “It’s self-defeating to handcuff renewable energy development to massive new oil and gas extraction,” he said in a statement. “The new leasing required in this bill will fan the flames of the climate disasters torching our country, and it’s a slap in the face to the communities fighting to protect themselves from filthy fossil fuels.”

How Manchin-Schumer would change energy, from oil to solar - The surprise climate deal struck between Democratic Sens. Joe Manchin (W.Va.) and Chuck Schumer (N.Y.) this week could transform the U.S. energy sector, slashing emissions and delivering historic investments in clean technologies — although it meets many demands of GOP lawmakers and conservative Democrats on fossil fuels.The $369 billion “Inflation Reduction Act” contains new funding provisions and broad policy changes for nearly every segment of the energy sector, including wind, solar, hydrogen, carbon capture, and oil and gas.In a press briefing yesterday, Manchin framed the new agreement — which would force the White House to hold several offshore lease sales — as a measure to bolster U.S. energy security.“You have to be energy independent if you want to be a superpower in the world. That’s what China does and that’s what Russia has had, and they’re our two nemeses right now,” he said.The deal is packed with incentives to boost low-carbon technologies, including delivering tax code reforms sought for years by renewable industries, chief among them a 10-year extension of wind and solar’s tax credits.It would also offer new tax credits for domestic manufacturing of solar panels, wind turbine parts and other key equipment for growth of renewables. Energy storage projects sited separately from renewable generation would also take advantage of a new investment tax credit.For federal land programs, the bill is a mixed bag of reforms and mandates: Answering the call of offshore wind proponents, the measure would undo a Trump-era moratorium on offshore wind leasing that bars new auctions in the southern Atlantic Ocean. Left in place, the moratorium would likely stymie the industry’s growth, according to observers.On the other hand, the linking of renewables provisions with new leasing for oil and gas stoked opposition from many climate and reform advocates. Autumn Hanna, vice president of Taxpayers for Common Sense, an organization that’s been pushing for federal oil and gas reforms for decades, said that approach could limit the Interior Department’s ability to make good decisions about federal lands.“Those blanket policies on the surface seem very problematic,” While the bill is being lauded as the most significant climate bill in U.S. history, its actual impacts to renewable deployment and emissions reductions are still being parsed out. Along with many climate-targeted policies, the bill has provisions that would boost oil and gas, sparking frustration from activists but fitting with Manchin’s priorities — and his attempts to mollify GOP lawmakers and avoid party-line opposition. Perhaps most importantly, the package would force the president to redo an oil auction in the Gulf of Mexico from last year that was vacated by a federal judge. It would also force three additional offshore sales, two in the Gulf and one off the Alaska coast, that were canceled by the White House earlier this year.

'Easter eggs' in climate bill delight oil and gas industry - The oil and gas industry doesn’t hate the climate bill. The industry as a whole isn’t yet embracing the $700 billion-plus reconciliation deal, which would penalize some forms of fossil fuel pollution while making one of the largest investments in clean energy in U.S. history. But the legislation also contains what some called “Easter eggs” that would benefit oil and gas companies, including access to new swaths of federal waters in Alaska and the Gulf of Mexico.“There are some things in there that are helpful to our business,” Rich Walsh, senior vice president and general counsel at Valero, one of the country’s largest fuel refiners, said during an earnings call Thursday with investors.Frank Maisano, a partner at the at law firm Bracewell, said the compromise deal offers wins for both the fossil fuel and green energy industries.“There are a lot of pieces in there that are going to be valuable to different sectors,” said Maisano, whose firm works with companies in both fields.Maisano added that Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.), who reached the deal with Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, “has been clear on where he stands — to have some mix of benefits and not lean too heavily on renewables only. That’s what he’s gotten here.”The bill, H.R. 5376 (117th), would spend an estimated $370 billion in an attempt to slash carbon emissions across the U.S. economy by the end of the decade, by an estimated 40 percent from 2005 levels. But it includes proposals to ease federal rules that the West Virginia senator has said are constricting fossil fuel production and slowing needed upgrades to the power grid.The compromise has infuriated some progressive environmental activists. One such group, the climate organization 350.org, called the bill “a sham” because of the fossil fuel provisions and accused the Biden administration of “engaging in a bait and switch tactic on climate legislation.”Still, other environmental groups have said they can live with the trade-offs. And the oil and gas industry has identified provisions that may make the climate medicine go down a little easier.Walsh, at Valero, pointed to a portion of the bill that would allocate $500 million to expand biofuel infrastructure such as storage tanks and blending facilities. The bill would also require the Interior Department to offer at least 2 million acres a year for onshore oil and gas lease sales. Unless it holds those lease sales, the bill says, the department could not offer rights of way for solar and wind power projects.Those leasing provisions alone would offer a win for oil and gas companies that are feuding with the Biden administration over Interior’s slow pace of fossil fuel lease sales, one lobbyist for the industry said. Meanwhile, the bill’s proposal to charge a fee of up to $1,500 a ton for the petroleum industry’s emissions of methane, a potent greenhouse gas, would be less of an issue for large oil companies already working on reducing them, industry analysts said. “If you look at the pros and cons, the pros generally outweigh the cons,” the lobbyist said, speaking on condition of anonymity because he wasn’t authorized to speak to the news media. “The Easter eggs that Manchin forced into the bill on leasing, they’re a big deal. If you squint hard enough, you can see this being a bipartisan compromise.”

Democrats rally the troops, prepare for climate 'Byrd baths' - Democrats finally have a climate deal in hand, but it’s far from finished, and Republicans are preparing parliamentary challenges to stop it.Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) has already begun the process of clearing the clean energy and tax agreement he struck with Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) with the Senate parliamentarian, who determines which provisions are allowed under the strict rules that govern budget reconciliation. The Byrd Rule, named for the late Sen. Robert Byrd (D-W.Va.), allows Republicans to challenge individual provisions. The GOP has already taken issue with pieces of the drug pricing and health care policies Manchin and Schumer agreed to earlier this month.While they’re still digesting the climate and tax legislation tacked on to the reconciliation bill this week, Republicans will inevitably try to pick it apart.“We’ll be challenging every piece of it that we can,” Senate Finance ranking member Mike Crapo (R-Idaho) said in an interview.Democrats, meanwhile, have rallied the troops around the bill, with progressives largely willing to swallow fossil fuel concessions to Manchin in exchange for hundreds of billions of dollars in clean energy investments.But the “Byrd bath” is a major question mark they’ll have to iron out before the roughly $369 billion in climate spending hits the Senate floor next week.Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (D-Ariz.), the Senate’s other crucial moderate vote, is another unknown. She has not yet commented on the agreement, and her office has said she wants to read the bill before doing so. In the past, she has opposed efforts to close the carried interest tax loophole, which is among the current deal’s tax provisions.Democrats nonetheless sounded optimistic on both fronts yesterday. Schumer has refrained from commenting about Sinema’s views, but other Democrats were hopeful that she would come around on the climate and drug provisions she has long supported.“The prescription drug provisions are essentially the provisions that she wrote,” Sen. Tina Smith (D-Minn.) told reporters yesterday. “And I would also note that Sen. Sinema has always agreed with the climate provisions.”Clearing the Byrd bath could be the lower hurdle, at least for the bill’s climate policy. Many of the clean energy tax components have been in the works in various forms since last year, when Democrats were working with the parliamentarian on the original “Build Back Better Act.”And Democrats said some of the procedural work had been going on as the Schumer-Manchin negotiations progressed over the last few months.“We did a lot of work already, with respect to the clean energy tax credits and the finance provision,” Senate Finance Chair Ron Wyden (D-Ore.) said yesterday. “We have very good people on this, and they have already done a lot of the original work to be ready because we felt all along that there was support for the major provisions.” One potential stumbling block for Democrats next week: The coronavirus. Yesterday, Sen. Dick Durbin of Illinois, the second-ranking Democrat in the Senate, said he had tested positive for Covid-19. Manchin has been out all week after a positive test. And Sen. Patrick Leahy (D-Vt.) has been absent for weeks after suffering a broken hip. All will need to be on board to pass the bill.

Drugmakers are waging a ‘Hail Mary’ campaign to sink reconciliation bill - Drugmakers are waking up to the reality that Democrats’ revived budget reconciliation bill has a shot at enactment, and are waging an intense lobbying campaign on Capitol Hill and over the airwaves in a last-minute attempt to bring it down. The bill would allow Medicare for the first time to negotiate prices of some of the most costly drugs used by American seniors, threatening billions in revenue, and punish drug companies if they raise prices faster than the rate of inflation. For the pharmaceutical players impacted most by the bill, it’s the equivalent of a five alarm fire. “The ground is shifting. It’s starting to sink in for them, what the bill does,” one industry lobbyist told POLITICO about the sentiment among pharmaceutical executives at a recent gathering. “The CEOs who have significant concerns are very engaged.” That gathering, an annual planning meeting for the industry’s most prominent trade group, took place at the Conrad Washington hotel last week — hosting leaders of some of the largest drugmakers in the country. With the clock ticking for Democrats to pass the reconciliation bill, the routine meeting of the Pharmaceutical Research and Manufacturers of America, or PhRMA, board members turned into an opportunity to reach out to allies in the House and Senate. Several lobbyists representing pharmaceutical interests spoke to POLITICO about the mood on K Street about the lobbying effort, and most were granted anonymity to speak freely about their work. The stakes are high for Democrats to follow through on key promises to rein in the cost of health care before the midterm elections in November, and represent a major victory in the party’s 20-year goal of allowing Medicare to negotiate the price of medicine. Despite the industry’s legendary clout, momentum appears to be building for a deal, punctuated Wednesday evening with the announcement of an agreement between Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer and the Senate Democrat most skeptical of the reconciliation bill, Joe Manchin of West Virginia, that includes once-scrapped tax and climate measures. Democrats are desperate to revive anything of the ambitious agenda President Joe Biden set out early in his presidency. The drug pricing provisions also save the government $288 billion over the next decade, which can be used to fund other priorities. By using the budget reconciliation process, Democrats can pass the drug pricing plan with only 50 Senate votes. They have a Sept. 30 deadline to act, and senators are set to leave for August recess after next week.

Splitsville: McConnell and McCarthy break on big votes - Kevin McCarthy and Mitch McConnell regularly meet to coordinate their management of Republicans in the House and Senate. You wouldn’t know it from their voting records. Congress’ two GOP leaders split yet again this week on a bill intended to stoke domestic microchip manufacturing, on top of a bevy of past fissures that include infrastructure, gun safety and whether to embrace former President Donald Trump after the Jan. 6 Capitol attack. McConnell and 16 other Senate Republicans voted for the microchips bill mere hours before Democrats struck a deal on a party-line climate, tax and health care package that Republican leaders were trying to kill — and thought was dead. It raised suspicions among some lawmakers in both chambers that the Senate GOP got played. “We got our ass kicked. It’s just that simple,” said Sen. John Kennedy (R-La.). “Looks to me like we got rinky-doo’d. That’s a Louisiana word for ‘screwed.’ And we got our ass kicked. That’s the way my people back home see it.” As the GOP heads into the midterms, McCarthy and McConnell are operating in different galaxies. While the House GOP leader navigates a tricky path as he tries to take the speaker’s gavel next year, voting against all those big bipartisan deals to avoid losing any edge with his conference’s conservatives, the Senate minority leader has offered surprising support for a decent portion of President Joe Biden’s agenda. The dynamic could pose serious challenges, given the two men hope to lead a Republican Congress together next year. Rep. Jim Jordan (R-Ohio) said simply that any Senate Republicans who work with Democrats on Biden-backed legislation are “wrong. I wish they wouldn’t.”

US considers deploying carriers to support House speaker’s Taiwan trip - Washington Post - The US military is considering “moving aircraft carriers or sending fighter planes for close air support” as part of a potential trip by US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi to Taiwan, the Washington Post reported Saturday. The discussions about US military actions in support of Pelosi’s trip were first reported in an op-ed by Josh Rogin, who wrote:The U.S. military is devising options for protecting Pelosi’s delegation, who—as is normal procedure for congressional delegations to Taiwan—would be flying on a military plane. The measures under consideration include moving aircraft carriers or sending fighter planes for close air support. That, in turn, could be misinterpreted by the Chinese side as an aggressive rather than a defensive measure.The discussions take place amid warnings by Chinese officials that the scheduled trip by Pelosi could trigger a military clash between Chinese and US forces.In a separate article, the Post reported: “The Biden administration is increasingly concerned that a planned trip by House Speaker Nancy Pelosi to Taiwan next month could spark a major crisis across the Taiwan Strait, and the White House and an array of national security officials have briefed Pelosi and her team about the risks of traveling now, administration officials said.”In a separate article, the Post quoted Evan Medeiros, a former top White House China expert in the Obama administration, as saying, “The Taiwan issue… could spark war—including nuclear war—between the two largest economies in the world.”On Wednesday, President Joe Biden said military officials believed it was “not a good idea” for Pelosi to visit Taiwan.But despite Biden’s public comments and public warnings to the press made by White House officials, including National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan, Pelosi has not publicly called off the trip. Asked to comment, she said that “it's important for us to show support” to Taiwan. Asked about Biden’s comments, Pelosi replied, “maybe the military was afraid our plane would get shot down or something like that by the Chinese.”Last week, Hu Xijin, the former party secretary of the Global Times,proposed that China “should send military aircraft to accompany Pelosi’s plane to enter the island of Taiwan and fly over the airport where Pelosi lands, and fly back to the mainland from the island.”On Saturday, the Financial Times (FT) reported that Chinese officials told the US that Pelosi’s trip would be met with a “possible military response.” Over the weekend, Gen. Mark Milley, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, demanded further US action against China, declaring, “The message is the Chinese military, in the air and at sea, have become significantly more and noticeably more aggressive in this particular region.”

Pelosi’s Taiwan trip threatens World War III - Behind the backs of the American public, the US military is preparing a provocation against China aimed at instigating a conflict that could lead to a full-scale world war between the world’s two largest economies.This provocation comes in the form of a planned trip to Taiwan by House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, the third-ranking figure in the US government.Despite US President Joe Biden’s publicly stated concerns about the provocative nature of the trip, New York Times journalist David Sanger, an unofficial spokesman for the US military/intelligence apparatus, reported Tuesday that “US officials said the planning for Ms. Pelosi’s trip was moving ahead.”By all indications, sometime next month the octogenarian will strap herself into a C-130 cargo plane, possibly accompanied by an escort of F-35 fighters and supported by US aircraft carriers, and tempt fate by landing on Taiwan, amid warnings by Chinese military officers that they will “stop” her from entering the country.This level of recklessness is a testament to the deep crisis and disorientation of the US political establishment, which is desperately lashing out in all directions in the face of an intractable social, economic and political crisis.The dispatch of Pelosi, the highest-ranking US official to visit the island in a quarter century, is aimed at further undermining the one-China policy, which has been systematically dismantled by the Trump and Biden administrations, which have encouraged Taiwanese separatism as they have stuffed the island to the gills with weapons. Now, provocatively, Washington is acknowledging publicly a rising number of US military personnel on Taiwan.In October 2021, the Wall Street Journal reported that US troops are stationed on Taiwan, and in December, the US doubled the number of troops stationed on the island. In March of that year, Nikkei reported that the United States was in discussions to station offensive missiles that would have violated the INF treaty on Taiwan.On May 5, 2022, the US State Department removed wording on its official website stating that “the United States does not support Taiwan independence” and “acknowledging the Chinese position that there is but one China and Taiwan is part of China.”The Biden administration has approved four massive arms sales to Taiwan so far, and a fifth, coming in at $108 million, is slated for imminent congressional approval.Just as the United States has for years built up the Ukrainian military as a bastion against Russia with the aim of provoking the current disastrous war, the United States is transforming the island into an offensive launch platform for war with China, seeking to provoke China into military action against Taiwan.These plans, years in the making, now threaten to break out into a shooting war. Both the United States and China have explicitly stated that they would go to war against each other over Taiwan. Asked in May whether the United States would use force to defend Taiwan, Biden replied, “Yes… That’s the commitment we made.”Chinese officials have also made clear that they will go to war over Taiwan. Last month, Chinese Defense Minister Wei Fenghe told US officials at the Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore, “If anyone dares to secede Taiwan from China, we will not hesitate to fight, and we will fight at all costs.”In public and in private, Chinese officials have stated that they are considering a military response to Pelosi’s trip, including intercepting her flight or sending Chinese aircraft to overfly the Taiwanese mainland.The US military, for its part, is making preparations to deploy aircraft carriers and scramble fighter aircraft to support the operation.Facing an unprecedented economic, social and political crisis at home, dominant sections of the US political establishment are seeking to massively escalate the global war that has erupted in Ukraine with the opening of a Pacific front. Indeed, in a statement to the New York Times, Senator Chris Coons, a key Biden ally in the Senate, declared, “we may be heading to an earlier confrontation... than we thought.”

One China Eyepoking Too Far: Biden Signals US Not Backing Down on Pelosi Taiwan Visit as China Promises Military Response by Yves Smith -The US is run by spoiled children who won’t take “no” for an answer. While I am not privy to what China has in the way of plans for Taiwan, and I welcome being corrected, I have yet to see any of the neocons make a substantiated allegation that China intended to invade Taiwan prior to the US meddling by arming Taiwan and supporting its nationalists. My impression from a considerable remove is that China was clearly not happy about Taiwanese declarations of independence, but was prepared to be patient and let time do its work. See this 2018 article from Forbes: On February 28, Beijing announced 31 measures that make it easier for Taiwanese to work, invest and study in China. So if China could get more Taiwanese to live in China, or simply see it as not problematic to move back and forth, it would establish among the Taiwanese the notion that China and Taiwan were in practical terms not separate, and the Taiwanese would be worse off by denying themselves opportunities in China. In other words, China could over the long term, say a 20 year horizon, use commerce, not force, to achieve its ends.But the US is frustrated at the China monster it has created. The US pushed to let China into the WTO even though it did not meet the requirements at the time. The US also ran sustained and large trade deficits with China, so our demand was a key driver of its rapid rise.It boggles the mind that the US is now upset that turning China into its factory and seeking to enrich 1.4 billion citizens so we could sell them Disney movies and deodorant had led to China becoming a dominant economic and increasingly important military power. If it was obvious enough in 2007 for Putin to talk about a multi-polar order at the Munich Security Conference, it was obvious to anyone paying a smidge of attention.The neocons above all seem unable to process that the days of US hegemony are over. It boggles the mind that they are not just eyepoking but escalating greatly with China via the still-planned Pelosi visit to Taiwan in August. As we’ll explain, China is fully cognizant of the fact that Pelosi is number two in line after Harris should something happen to the increasingly addle-brained Biden. And they don’t buy for a second that Pelosi is operating without the explicit approval of the Administration.Note that it’s entirely possible that Pelosi revived her Taiwan trip plan (recall she put it off after coming down with Covid) all on her own. The Pentagon gave her a face-saving out by saying they didn’t recommend it.¹China, which is routinely screechy when it is upset about what it perceives to be foreign transgressions, has managed to find new registers in its objections the proposed Pelosi visit.We’ve cited this passage from an official editorial at the house organ Global Times on Tuesday July 19 (emphasis ours): Unlike Washington’s opportunistic probing, all options are clearly on the table for the Chinese mainland. The noose around the neck of the “Taiwan independence” secessionist forces is tightening, and Pelosi has one foot on the stool of the gallows. If Pelosi, who has always been fond of playing tough on China, wants to insist on this way, we will definitely prepare sufficient “consequences” for her. A week later, on Tuesday, the 26th:After the Chinese Foreign Ministry stressed that China had made sterner warnings to US officials and China is fully prepared for any eventuality over US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s planned Taiwan trip on Monday, the Chinese Defense Ministry on Tuesday vowed that if the US insists, the Chinese military will by no means sit idly by and strong measures will be taken to thwart any external interference and “Taiwan independence” separatist attempts…. Yet after the Pentagon cleared its throat and Pelosi played dumb, Biden not only is not be intervening but now fully owns this visit. Biden is trying the lame-brained move of attempting to persuade Xi, via a phone call this Thursday. From the Financial Times: Biden and the Chinese president had been expected to discuss many contentious issues, from military challenges to technology competition. But those plans have been complicated by Pelosi’s intended visit to Taiwan in August…. Bloomberg reports that if Pelosi’s visit proceeds, it would happen “within days” of the Xi-Biden call. As far as China is concerned, there is not putting lipstick on this pig. The US is demonstrating, just as Russia has charged, that it is not agreement capable. An April post summarized some of the recent cases of US overplaying its hand with China and not having the common sense to recognize its heavy-handed moves were backfiring:

Nuclear threat higher than in Cold War, British adviser Stephen Lovegrove says - Britain’s national security adviser has warned that a breakdown in dialogue among rival powers is raising the risk of nuclear war, with fewer safeguards now than during the Cold War.Western nations had a greater “understanding of the Soviet doctrine and capabilities — and vice versa” at the time because they kept more negotiation channels open, Stephen Lovegrove said at an event in Washington on Wednesday. “This gave us both a higher level of confidence that we would not miscalculate our way into nuclear war,” he said. “Today, we do not have the same foundations with others who may threaten us in the future — particularly with China.” As such, he said, Britain strongly supports President Biden’s talking with Beijing. Biden and Chinese leader Xi Jinping spoke Thursday at a time of heightened friction, in part over a plan by House Speaker Nancy Pelosi(D-Calif.) to visit Taiwan and Biden’s comments that the U.S. military would defend the island — which the White House later downplayed. Beijing is warning against a Pelosi trip to the self-governing island that it claims as part of its territory.The tensions have added to differences over trade, security and Russia’s war in Ukraine.According to Lovegrove’s assessment, the conflict in Ukraine is also “a manifestation of a much broader contest unfolding” over what comes next after the post-Cold War world order.“We are entering a dangerous new age,” he added, citing the spread of advanced weapons and cyberwarfare.As the war fuels fear of wider confrontations, an arms research group said last month that the world’s nuclear arsenal was set to increase over the next decade. The Stockholm-based institute said that it saw a “very worrying trend,” with all nuclear-armed states upgrading their stockpiles and what appeared to be the end of the era of declining nuclear arsenals.

 Biden's call with China's Xi highlights tension over Taiwan - President Joe Biden and Chinese President Xi Jinping spoke for more than two hours on Thursday on a range of issues that included a candid exchange about Taiwan.Chinese state media reported that Xi brought up Taiwan repeatedly during the call, telling Biden that the U.S. should abide by the One China policy and implement the Three Joint Communiqués — a set of diplomatic statements issued over four decades to guide, among other things, U.S. arms sales to Taiwan.“Those who play with fire will get burned,” Xi was reported to have told Biden.Biden emphasized that U.S. policy on Taiwan “has not changed,” meaning that while the administration does not support Taiwanese independence, Taiwan would continue to be an important trading partner for the U.S. This stance is in accordance with the United States’ longstanding adherence to the One China policy.“The United States strongly opposes unilateral efforts to change the status quo or undermine peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait,” the White House said in a readout of the call.A source of tension in the background of the call was Speaker Nancy Pelosi’spotential visit to Taiwan, a diplomatic trip that the White House is not happy about. Xi is also facing a sensitive time with the 20th Communist Party Congress coming up later this year. Any perceived cracks in the United States’ commitment to the One China policy could weaken his own influence. Xi underscored the need for bilateral coordination on macroeconomic policies to keep global supply chains stable and to maintain food and energy security. The call also covered Covid-19 policies. Both presidents tasked their respective teams to continue following up on Thursday’s conversation, in particular to address climate change and health security.

Xi and Biden Talk Past Each Other in Over 2 Hour Phone Call by Yves Smith - The Xi-Biden phone call held in the early AM Washington time on July 28 met the Winston Churchill standard of ‘Meeting jaw to jaw is better than war,” but only barely. We’ve embedded both official readouts at the end of the post. The White House version was not at all forthcoming, a mere 150 words and half of that background. China’s by contrast looks positively expansive. Biden’s staff gave a few more crumbs to the press. From the Financial Times:The White House said the call lasted for two hours, and the leaders discussed Taiwan, Russia’s war in Ukraine and areas of possible co-operation including climate change, health security and counter-narcotics. Biden also raised the cases of Americans who have been wrongfully detained and subject to exit bans and other human rights concerns, the senior administration official said. Neither readout acknowledges discussing the possible Pelosi visit to Taiwan; the White House flack refused to answer the question when asked point blank. However, both sides acknowledged talking about, or perhaps more accurately, around the Taiwan issue. Despite the length of the call, the readouts give the impression the two sides did not really engage. National leaders never have complete freedom to act; even autocrats have constituencies or power blocs they have to appease. In the US, it has become clear that the President has limited degrees of freedom on foreign policy matters; the military/intel interests call the shots. Biden is a visibly very weak president. And it appears that that has enabled the neocons to have an even bigger say over foreign policy than usual. One assumes Xi has to understand that. Yet the Chinese readout has Xi starting from lofty first principles to contend that the US and China, as leading world powers, have a duty to promote peace, global development, and prosperity. From that, Xi reasons that seeing China as a strategic rival is “misperceiving” US-China relations and misleading the world community. . Even though they could co-exist without stepping on each other, that’s not how the US wants it. The US has designated China as geopolitical enemy number one (on the days of the week when it is not sending more arms and dough to Ukraine), so this high-minded patter from Xi is talking to a brick wall. The quasi lecture about principles then shifted to an actual lecture about Taiwan. Xi reminded Biden that the US has affirmed its commitment to the “one China” policy in three recent joint communiques. Some commentators reacted to “both sides of the Taiwan Strait belong to one and the same China.” That of course is implicit in the one China policy, but China was not enforcing that. Xi put Biden on notice that that is no longer the case. The Xi remark that attracted widespread notice was: “Those who play with fire will perish by it.” Xi did not back down from the not-very-veiled threats from various Chinese officials that China would take action against a Taiwan visit by Pelosi. He also gave a dig about the US looking not agreement capable: “The US should honor the one-China principle and implement the three joint communiqués both in word and in deed.” The China readout has Biden giving lip service to its formal Taiwan policy: He [Biden] reiterated that the one-China policy of the US has not changed and will not change, and that the US does not support “Taiwan independence”.The White House formulation was different:On Taiwan, President Biden underscored that the United States policy has not changed and that the United States strongly opposes unilateral efforts to change the status quo or undermine peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait.One could take this to mean that “The US supports the current ambiguous status of Taiwan and will oppose measures by China to end that ambiguity.” One could also take it to mean “The US will oppose China acting to perfect its territorial rights with respect to the Taiwan Strait.” Pelosi has made Biden look weak, via his failure to put her in place after both the Pentagon and now Jake Sullivan have said they oppose her going to Taiwan. Instead, Biden did the worst possible thing as far as his appearance of authority is concerned: instead going to Xi (remember Biden requested the call) as if that would somehow make a Pelosi visit less of an affront, or worse, to China. Biden should have known that was a non-starter given the unusually aggressive statements from Chinese officials, including, importantly, from the Defense Ministry. And that fierce reaction should have come as no surprise. Moon of Alabama recounts Pelosi’s long history of provoking China.If Chinese post-meeting press coverage is any guide, China is deadly serious about taking some sort of military action to prevent a Pelosi visit or make an important statement about its right to operate in airspace and waterways Taiwan would like to depict as its own.And Pelosi has hurt the Democrats. Her little stunt has left them in a no-win position. The Republicans know they have her in a trap. They are taking the position that she backs down, it’s giving in to China. But if she goes and is not permitted to land in Taiwan, or China secures a win, say by flying planes in with hers so as to show that China can and will now overfly Taiwan. the Administration can again be presented as having stuffed up by somehow not out-thinking/out-maneuvering China.It sure looks like the result that would make the Republicans happiest is having Pelosi start a war. As with Russia, be careful what you wish for. China is just as serious about its red lines as Russia was pre the special military operation.

Pelosi to leave for Asia amid Chinese threats over Taiwan stop - Speaker Nancy Pelosi is set to leave this weekend on a trip that includes Singapore, Japan and South Korea — and possibly Taiwan — even as a Chinese state media commentator suggested Friday that Beijing could shoot down any U.S. military plane she takes to Taipei. Pelosi has declined to confirm specifics of her expected swing through Asia, citing security risks. But she is scheduled to lead a small delegation of lawmakers, including House Foreign Affairs Chair Gregory Meeks (D-N.Y.), to Pacific countries beginning this weekend, according to multiple people familiar with the matter. Officially, a stop in Taiwan is still up in the air. But the Pentagon is moving ahead with preparations anyway, according to three people familiar with her travel plans. If the trip goes forward as planned, Pelosi will fly on a U.S. military aircraft to Taipei, POLITICO previously reported. “We want Congress to be a part of” the Biden administration’s strategy in the Indo-Pacific, Pelosi told reporters on Friday. “I’m very excited, should we go to the countries that you’ll be hearing about along the way, about the conversations we’ll have. … We have global responsibilities.” U.S. defense officials are increasingly concerned that China would see a congressional delegation to Taiwan, escorted by military aircraft, as an invasion. That rhetoric escalated Friday when Hu Xijin, a commentator with the Chinese-state-owned Global Times, threatened that China’s military could down the speaker’s plane. “If US fighter jets escort Pelosi’s plane into Taiwan, it is invasion,” Hu wrote on Twitter. “The [Chinese military] has the right to forcibly dispel Pelosi’s plane and the US fighter jets, including firing warning shots and making tactical movement of obstruction. If ineffective, then shoot them down.”

China announces military exercise opposite Taiwan - — China said it was conducting military exercises Saturday off its coast opposite Taiwan after warning Speaker Nancy Pelosi to scrap plans to visit the island democracy, which Beijing claims as part of its territory. The ruling Communist Party’s military wing, the People’s Liberation Army, was conducting “live-fire exercises” near the Pingtan islands off Fujian province from 8 a.m. to 9 p.m., the official Xinhua News Agency said. The Maritime Safety Administration warned ships to avoid the area. Such exercises usually involve artillery. The one-sentence announcement gave no indication whether Saturday’s exercise also might include missiles, fighter planes or other weapons. President Xi Jinping warned his U.S. counterpart, Joe Biden, in a phone call Thursday against “external interference” in Beijing’s dealings with the island. China says Taiwan has no right to conduct foreign relations. It sees visits by American officials as encouragement for the island to make its decades-old de facto independence official. The Ministry of Defense warned Washington this week not to allow Pelosi, who is Biden’s equal in rank as leader of one of three branches of government, to visit Taiwan. A spokesman said the PLA would take unspecified “strong measures” to stop pro-independence activity. The PLA has flown growing numbers of fighter planes and bombers near Taiwan and has in the past fired missiles into shipping lanes to the island. Taiwan and China split in 1949 after a civil war that ended with a communist victory on the mainland. The two governments say they are one country but disagree over which is entitled to national leadership. They have no official relations but are linked by billions of dollars in trade and investment.

Ukraine Issues Blacklist Of 'Russian Propagandists', Includes US Senator & Prominent Journalists - The Ukrainian government has published a list of politicians, academics, and activists who it claims promote "Russian propaganda". Absurdly, it includes high American officials - even a sitting US senator - and a Pulitzer Price winning journalist. A Kiev government-linked agency called the Ukrainian Center for Countering Disinformation released the list earlier this month, identifying figures such as Republican Senator Rand Paul, former Rep. Tulsi Gabbard (D-HI), military analyst Edward Luttwak, University of Chicago professor and international relations theorist John Mearsheimer, and award-winning journalist Glenn Greenwald, formerly of The Intercept, among many others. A number of notable international names are on the list as well, such as French populist political leader Marine Le Pen, or even an Italian General named General Leonardo Tricarico, who blames Ukraine for Russia's invasion and has urged immediate negotiations to end the war. Some of those on the list, such as Edward Luttwak, have actually loudly supported sending Western arms to Ukraine's military. In Luttwak's case, he was apparently deemed by Ukrainian officials a 'pro-Russian propagandist' merely for proposing a war-time compromise of allowing referendums in the breakaway Donetsk and Luhansk regions.

Ukraine Government Asks US To Provide 'Gas Lend-Lease' -The Ukrainian government on Tuesday asked Washington to provide Kyiv with a "lend-lease" program to import natural gas from the US to ensure Ukraine has enough gas for heating this winter, Prime Minister Denis Shmyhal indicated.The idea is for the US to provide gas to Ukraine and collect payment at a later time, similar to the World War II-era lend-lease program that was revived this year to facilitate military aid to Ukraine. "Preparation for the most difficult winter in our history continues, and in this preparation we are looking for all possible tools to be ready for any scenario," Shmyhal wrote on Telegram.According to Foreign Policy, one of the proposals that has been floated by Ukrainian officials would be for the US to provide Ukraine with 6 billion cubic meters of liquefied natural gas (LNG) without collecting payment for two years. The US would deliver the LNG to terminals in Europe, where it will be shipped to Ukraine via pipeline.Yuriy Vitrenko, the CEO of the Ukrainian state-owned gas company Naftogaz, discussed the lend-lease proposal in Washington earlier this month. "They were surprised to hear such an idea, but it was well received," Vitrenko said. It’s estimated that the 6 billion cubic meters of LNG would cost about $8 billion. So far, the US has authorized $54 billion to spend on the war in Ukraine, more than half of which is for military aid. But the US is expected to spend more as the current funding is only meant to last through September 30.

 Lawmakers press Pentagon for answers as military recruiting crisis deepens - Lawmakers from both parties are putting increasing pressure on the Pentagon to fix the recruitment crisis that threatens to leave the military well short of its goals to bring new troops aboard this year, in what is widely considered the worst recruiting environment since the end of the Vietnam War. While leaders from the different military branches have all acknowledged the problem, they also have been unable to move the needle in a positive direction, as the desire of young Americans to join the military falls off the statistical cliff. “We are on the cusp of a military recruiting crisis,” Rep. Mike Gallagher (R-Wis.) told POLITICO, citing Covid, obesity among would-be recruits, competition from the healthy civilian labor market, and an overall low interest in serving. “When Republicans take control of Congress in a few months,” he added, “averting the recruiting crisis will be a top priority of the Military Personnel Subcommittee.” Gallagher is the top Republican on the House Armed Services’ subpanel. Multiple lawmakers from both sides of the aisle have expressed similar worries in recent days as the grim recruiting numbers continue to circulate throughout the DoD and Congress. The Army has reached 66 percent of its goal for the fiscal year ending in September, and the Navy is at 89 percent, according to data compiled from October 2021 to May 2022. Even with rates of 100 percent for the Marine Corps, Air Force and Space Force, that leaves the department with a total rate of just 85 percent. Rep. Anthony Brown (D-Md.), a member of the House Armed Services Committee, called on the Pentagon to “do more” to support service members and encourage young Americans to join the military. “That means better pay, training, opportunities, connections and benefits. And deepening partnerships with traditionally underserved or overlooked communities to tap into the full talent pool of our country,” Brown said in a statement. “Recruitment and personnel are core to our readiness. We need to take this seriously.” Meanwhile, Rep. Jackie Speier (D-Calif.), who chairs the Military Personnel Subcommittee, said the Pentagon has “not expanded” on a recent batch of numbers it sent to Congress, and she wants to hold a joint hearing with her panel and the Readiness subcommittee on recruiting issues.

House group moves to label Russia as terrorist state- – Five House members will imminently introduce legislation to officially designate Russia as a state sponsor of terrorism, putting them and Congress on a collision course with the secretary of State, who argues only he can slap that label on a country. The bill says that “the Russian Federation shall be deemed to have been determined to be a country the government of which has repeatedly provided support for acts of international terrorism.” If the ‘‘Russia is a State Sponsor of Terrorism Act’’ clears both chambers, the pressure will be on President Biden to sign it into law. And if he does, Russian President Putin’s country will join an ignominious list featuring North Korea, Syria, Cuba and Iran. “The United States must use every tool we have to stop Russia from its violent aggression in Ukraine,” Lieu told NatSec Daily. “Russia supports proxies conducting terrorism against civilians around the globe, from Syria to Ukraine. By designating Russia as a state sponsor of terrorism, this legislation increases consequences on Putin’s murderous behavior.” The measure’s introduction comes after Speaker Pelosi (D-Calif.) warned Secretary of State Blinken last week that if he didn’t label Russia as a terrorist state for its actions during the invasion of Ukraine, Congress would.

US Fanning Flames of Ukraine War - It is now five months since NATO pushed Ukraine into an unwanted war when saner policies in the Zionist-influenced corridors of power in Kiev where the interests of the Ukrainian people no longer matter, could have averted military confrontation with Russia. Even when Moscow had no other choice but to send its troops across the common border of the two Slavic countries in order to prevent the US and the European Union from militarizing Ukraine, the war could have been stopped through diplomacy. It didn’t happen. Wisdom was sidelined, because of the devilish intentions of the US to fan the flames of war through supplies of billions of dollars of sophisticated weapons that only seems to have made Russia more determined to counter what it deems as growing threats from the West to its national security. The result has been catastrophic with more than 9.5 million Ukrainians fleeing the country and a third of the 42 million population displaced in addition to global food shortages since fertile and agriculturally-rich Ukraine is among the breadbaskets of Europe and the world. It is still not too late the end the war, provided NATO ceases its meddling and the warmongering US abstains from sending massive military hardware, which do not bring peace, but invite more attacks from Russia to test its own armaments against American weapons. Saturday’s attack on the port of Odessa that destroyed military infrastructure and sank a Ukrainian warship is an example in this regard. If this attack obstructs grain supplies to other countries, the culprit is Washington, which seems intent upon derailing any agreement between Kiev and Moscow for grain supplies, worked out through mediation of other countries – Turkey in this particular regard. The US is boasting that it has so far sent eight billion dollars of weaponry to Ukraine, and according to its Secretary of War, Lloyd Austin – an Afro-American with a slavish mentality to obediently serve white racist interests –Washington is to send more high mobility artillery rocket systems to Ukraine. It is obvious that Ukraine is being used by the West as a battleground for field tests of military hardware, which means the war is not likely to end anytime soon. Still, however, efforts should be made by the UN and peace-loving world countries to stop the unnecessary fighting.

The Wrecking Crew Will Be Overcome - Kunstler - We stumble into the horse latitudes of summer feeling trapped in the stillness. The heat disorders minds — and these are minds already scrambled by official propaganda. We are this close to a general recognition that the Covid vaccines were a deadly scam, even while Rochelle Walensky of the CDC keeps pushing boosters on TV and the entire public health bureaucracy stands by silently behind this murderous fakery. When their trials finally come, will they plea that they just didn’t know? How is that possible? (It’s not.)The crisis of the vaccinated is coming and there won’t be any hiding it. Anyway, nobody expects actual news reporting out of the legacy media. It will get around through the alt.media for sure, and already is, but the real spread will proceed when all the everyday people see themselves and those around them get sick, and realize they have one thing in common: those vaxxes they submitted to. It’s already happening.In keeping with the principles of mass formation psychosis, the maliciously insane people in charge of our nation’s affairs will expect you to swallow ever-greater absurdities to maintain their control (and protect themselves). But we’re way beyond the “women-with-penises” stage of the mind-fuckery program. Nobody with a functioning brain believes that bullshit anymore — except the people who run the California prison system. Next up, apparently, is a hot little war with Russia or China, a useful distraction from the systematic self-dismantling of Western Civ.“Joe Biden” has sent troops from the 82nd and 101st Airborne Divisions to Europe, supposedly to “train” the NATO forces of Euroland. Is this some kind of bluff? Or does “Joe Biden” and Company imagine that they’ll pull off some blitzkrieg counter-offensive on-the-ground in Ukraine and recapture territory secured by Russia painfully since February. If we send troops into Ukraine proper, it would amount to a deliberate sacrifice of our supposedly best soldiers in a meat-grinder. Maybe the purpose is simply to further weaken the US military, humiliate NATO, and hasten the death of the West.Of course, we have no real strategic national interest in Ukraine. We had no quarrel all the years that the Russian Soviets owned and operated it. We set in motion the current conflict by cooking up the 2014 color revolution. (There followed the fat years for Hunter Biden converting US aid money into revenue for his many shell corporations.) I doubt that a plurality of Americans will fall for another such stupid Hate Russia ploy. We’ve had enough pointless and costly foreign misadventures. This would be a war exceeding the unpopularity of Vietnam and could easily unleash widespread street protests. Only this time the Left will be pro-war and the Party of Chaos will send out its ragtag army of Antifa trannies to make the street protests bloodier. It will be seen for what it is: the ruling regime’s war on its own people. And it will be overcome.

This American teacher also sits in a Russian jail, worried nobody cares - --The “other American” imprisoned in Russia has a name, too.He was always just Mr. Fogel to the students he entranced with lectures about the Cold War. But he is Marc Hilliard Fogel on his well-worn passports, abundantly stamped from his many years of teaching International Baccalaureate history courses at schools attended by the children of U.S. diplomats and the global elite in Colombia, Venezuela, Oman, Malaysia and, for the past 10 years, in Russia.  Fogel’s charmed life has turned dark at the age of 60. He never sought notoriety. But he and his family slowly have come to the realization that telling the world his name could be his salvation.For the past 11 months, Fogel has languished in Russian detention centers following his August 2021 arrest for trying to enter the country with about half an ounce of medical marijuana he’d been prescribed in the United States for chronic pain after numerous injuries and surgeries. First he endlessly awaited trial, often in crowded, smoke-choked cells. More recently, he has been serving the first weeks of an incomprehensible 14-year sentence handed down by a Russian judge in June. Fogel’s plight parallels a similar case that has played big on news websites, led cable newscasts and prompted White House pronouncements: the trial of WNBA basketball star Brittney Griner, who also was arrested for attempting to enter Russia with a small amount of medical marijuana. On Wednesday, Secretary of State Antony Blinken announced that the United States has made a “substantial proposal” to Russia to secure the release of Griner and another jailed American, Paul Whelan, who is serving a 16-year Russian sentence on spy charges he has denied. On Thursday, a Kremlin spokesman said a deal has yet to be finalized.Marc Fogel’s wife, Jane Fogel, said in a Wednesday interview with The Washington Post after Blinken’s announcement that she’s still hoping her husband can be included in a swap. But those hopes are fading, she said, speaking publicly for the first time about her husband’s case.

Hill staffers hold climate protest in Schumer's office - Congressional staffers this morning protested in the office of Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) to urge him to continue negotiating on a climate change bill.Several aides posted about the sit-in on Twitter, including Aria Kovalovich, a professional staff member for the House Oversight and Reform Subcommittee on Environment, and Saul Levin, a policy adviser for Rep. Cori Bush (D-Mo.).More than a dozen staffers held signs reading “Keep negotiating, Chuck” and “Climate policy now” while they sat peacefully in Schumer’s office around 11 a.m. today. One video showed them singing. Six protesters — all House staffers — were arrested after refusing to leave Schumer’s office in the Hart Senate Office Building, according to the U.S. Capitol Police.It’s an unusual, and perhaps unprecedented, protest by congressional aides, who generally try to stay out of the spotlight. The sit-in follows a letter earlier this month signed anonymously by more than 200 staffers demanding clean energy and climate legislation.

Climate activists’ plot to make liberal politicians squirm - Jennifer Falcon, a climate and Indigenous rights organizer in San Antonio, Texas, worries constantly about the impacts of climate change on her community, such as water restrictions and a possible collapse of the electric grid.She thinks Democrats “wasted two years” trying to convince Democratic Sen. Joe Manchin of West Virginia to go along with their plans to tackle climate change. The negotiations collapsed, and she’s tired of waiting.“That’s gotten us nowhere,” Falcon said this week in an interview. “We need to meet this moment with the urgency that it deserves.”Falcon is working with a coalition of climate activists hoping to disrupt Congress’ annual baseball game in Washington tomorrow night. If politicians have “failed to deliver on climate change” prior to the game, “we will shut it down,” protest organizers wrote on their website titled “Now or Never.”Tomorrow’s planned demonstration at the baseball game will be one of many climate protests aimed at people who are typically their political allies in recent weeks as organizers have grown increasingly frustrated with Democrats’ failure to come through on their promises for climate legislation.This summer has been a bad one for climate hawks — the U.S. Supreme Court limited the administration’s ability to regulate greenhouse gases as Manchin refused to give Democrats the slim majority they needed for clean energy legislation.Climate organizers — embittered by the recent events and worried that Democrats will lose control of one or both chambers of Congress next year — plan to continue protests until lawmakers come through with policies needed to meaningfully curb emissions.Some are willing to get arrested, anger Democrats and make people squirm in order to get their attention.“We need to show up everywhere and make everyone uncomfortable until they move to address this,” Falcon said. “I think you’re going to see a huge escalation, and I think you’re going to see more people joining the movement.”

Manchin tests positive for COVID-19 - Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) said Monday that he tested positive for COVID-19. “This morning I tested positive for COVID-19,” Manchin wrote on Twitter. “I am fully vaccinated and boosted and am experiencing mild symptoms. I will isolate and follow CDC guidelines as I continue to work remotely to serve West Virginians.”Manchin is the latest in a string of senators to test positive, as well as President Biden. If other Democrats test positive next week, it could pose an obstacle for passing a health care measure that would lower prescription drug prices and continue enhanced financial assistance under the Affordable Care Act. Manchin is a key vote on the measure in a Senate split evenly between the two parties. Sens. Tom Carper (D-Del.) and Tina Smith (D-Minn.) also tested positive last week.In an additional potential complication on the vote count, Sen. Patrick Leahy (D-Vt.) is recovering from a fractured hip and had an additional surgery last week.

Murkowski tests positive for COVID-19 | The Hill -Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska) is quarantining at her home in Alaska after testing positive for COVID-19. “After experiencing flu like symptoms I recently tested positive for COVID-19. I will be following guidance and advice from doctors and will be quarantining at home in Alaska while continuing my work remotely,” Murkowski said on Twitter on Monday.The Alaska senator had been fully vaccinated and boosted, her office said.She posted on Twitter about receiving her first dose last year, saying, “Alaska is leading the charge in distribution of #COVID19 vaccinations. I’m proud to have joined my fellow Alaskans in getting vaccinated. There is hope at the end of this long dark tunnel.” The virus has been circulating in Congress, and Murkowski joins several other lawmakers who’ve tested positive in recent days. Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) announced he’d been infected Monday morning, just a few hours before the Alaska senator.

Birx Admits She Knew COVID-19 Vaccines Were Never "Going To Protect Against Infection" - A year ago, President Biden told the world during a now infamous CNN townhall that "you're not going to get COVID if you have these vaccinations." "This is a simple, basic proposition: If you’re vaccinated, you’re not going to be hospitalized, you’re not going to be in an ICU unit, and you’re not going to die," Biden added. Did he knowingly lie to the American people? As The Epoch Times' Zachary Stieber reports, one of the former U.S. officials who led the COVID-19 response during the Trump administration said July 22 that COVID-19 vaccines were not expected to protect against infection.“I knew these vaccines were not going to protect against infection. And I think we overplayed the vaccines. And it made people then worry that it’s not going to protect against severe disease and hospitalization,” Birx, the White House COVID-19 response coordinator under former President Donald Trump, said during an appearance on Fox News. Dr. Deborah Birx: "I knew these vaccines were not going to protect against infection and I think we overplayed the vaccines ..." Claims vaccines "protect against severe disease and hospitalization" before saying that 50% of those who died via Omicron were older & vaccinated. pic.twitter.com/CTifr3QZzX The Moderna and Pfizer COVID-19 vaccines were granted emergency use authorization in late 2020 to prevent symptomatic COVID-19, and were promoted by many health officials, including Birx.“This is one of the most highly-effective vaccines we have in our infectious disease arsenal. And so that’s why I’m very enthusiastic about the vaccine,” Birx said on an ABC podcast at the time. She made no mention of concerns the vaccines might not protect against infection.

WH Doctor Says Biden Likely Has Contagious Omicron BA.5 Variant - President Joe Biden likely caught the contagious Omicron BA.5 COVID variant, according to White House doctor Kevin O'Connor. "The president's causative agent is most likely the BA5 variant," the president's physician said in a memo released Saturday. "This is the SARS-CoV-2 variant which is responsible for 75-80% of infections in the United States at this time. This data does not affect the treatment plan in any way." O'Connor said Biden is experiencing symptoms like a sore throat and a cough but they "continue to improve.""His pulse, blood pressure, respiratory rate and temperature remain entirely normal," the memo reads. "His oxygen saturation continues to be excellent on room air. His lungs remain clear."Biden is not experiencing any shortness of breath, O'Connor wrote in the memo. Biden, 79, first tested positive for COVID-19 on Thursday. He got hisfirst vaccine dose against the COVID-19 virus in December 2020.At the time of the announcement of his infection, White House Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre said he was "experiencing very mild symptoms" and "has begun taking Paxlovid," an antiviral drug. Medical experts who spoke with Insider said his chances of contracting severe symptoms from the COVID-19 virus are low.His age puts him in a bracket that has seen high mortality rates due to COVID-19, Insider's Madison Hall and Hillary Brueck reported. But because he's fully vaccinated and considered healthy, he's not likely to experience severe symptoms, experts said.

How Biden’s Covid turned Ashish Jha into the de facto White House doctor - In the hours after President Joe Biden contracted the coronavirus, Ashish Jha began soliciting advice on how to navigate the biggest moment of his short White House career. As the administration’s Covid response coordinator, Jha had more than enough experience talking to the public about the health consequences of the deadly, lingering pandemic. But this task was different. Now, he was being tapped to brief the nation on the status of the pandemic’s highest-profile patient. While Biden was doing well by all accounts, some colleagues urged Jha against being overly optimistic about the recovery. At 79 years old, the president is considered high risk, the thinking went, according to people familiar with the discussions. There was no telling whether he might still take a turn for the worse. But as he walked into the White House briefing room, Jha harbored few of those concerns. “I don’t think we have any expectations of any other symptoms at this point,” he said Thursday, just hours after Biden tested positive. “He’s getting treatment. He has mild symptoms. He’s feeling fine.” The bullish assessment that day would soon look prescient, as Biden’s health has improved and he gets closer to leaving isolation. For Jha, it’s been a welcomed turn in the spotlight. For the White House, it has resembled something it has experienced little of recently: a plan that went off without a hitch. Biden’s mild case has given Jha the high-profile example he needed to reassure the public that the vaccines and treatments driving the pandemic response are key to preventing serious illness. It’s a timely reinforcement of the government’s booster shot campaign. Even more notable, Jha has argued, it’s validation of the White House view that Americans should get used to living with Covid — and give Biden a lot more credit that they can do so in relative safety.

The Biden administration’s new policy: Everyone will get COVID - At yesterday’s White House COVID-19 press briefing, Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre declared, “As we have said, almost everyone is going to get COVID and because of the hard work we have done since day one turning around the disjointed COVID response we had inherited, we have the tools to ensure that people can go about their daily life and work.” Biden’s spokewoman then added, “The president is fully vaccinated, twice boosted, and taking Paxlovid. His current health speaks to how Americans should avail themselves to boosters and treatments.” This is a remarkable admission in that it explicitly states that the Biden administration has washed its hands of any attempt to stem a pandemic that has already killed a million people in America and 20 million around the world. “Everyone is going to get COVID” should be read as a statement of intent. It confirms that a policy of mass infection, mass death and mass murder is the agenda of the US president and the ruling class for which he speaks. Hospitalizations and deaths continue to climb as BA.5’s dominance grows. Nearly 450 people are dying every day from COVID-19. This translates to 164,000 a year, five times the average killed by influenza and a toll that would have been considered inconceivable before the beginning of the pandemic. And this does not take into account the predictions by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention of another massive surge of infections this fall and winter. Beyond the immediate death toll, one in five of those who are infected and survive will experience Long COVID, and a third of these can suffer from debilitating disease. Yet, with $1.3 billion given to the NIH (National Institutes of Health) to study the Post-Acute COVID Syndrome (the formal title of Long COVID), there is not a single therapeutic trial up and running. The press secretary was not asked about this and would have had nothing to say. Meanwhile, study after study has documented that even mild COVID-19 infections can accelerate the aging process in adults and children. Allowing everyone to get infected means a generation of children and teenagers who will be deliberately crippled even before they have ventured into the world on their own. Hospitals across the country are facing drastic and unprecedented staffing shortages, which are further compounding worker burnout. Infections and reinfections are causing health care workers to fall sick and forcing them to choose between staying home to care for themselves or coming in to work and infecting their patients. Many hospitals are considering eliminating routine COVID-19 testing to cut wait times in overcrowded emergency rooms. Federal funding for addressing staff shortages is being exhausted. An article published in Politico yesterday reported, “As of July 22, hospitals in nearly 40 states reported critical staffing shortages, while hospitals in all 50 states said they expected to within a week.”

Biden tests positive for COVID in 'rebound' case, doctor says - President Biden tested positive for COVID-19 in a "rebound" case on Saturday, according to the White House. "As described last week, acknowledging the potential for so-called ‘rebound’ COVID positivity observed in a small percentage of patients treated with PAXLOVID the President increased his testing cadence, both to protect people around him and to assure early detection of any return of viral replication," White House Doctor Dr. Kevin O'Connor said. O'Connor said in the letter that Biden tested negative for COVID-19 on Tuesday evening, Wednesday morning, Thursday morning, and Friday morning, but tested positive on Saturday morning by an antigen test. The doctor says that the re-infection represents "rebound positivity" and said that Biden has not experienced a reemergence of symptoms, and there's no need to restart treatment. Biden will, however, begin "strict isolation procedures," according to O'Connor. Biden tweeted on Saturday afternoon that he will continue working. "Folks, today I tested positive for COVID again. This happens with a small minority of folks. I’ve got no symptoms but I am going to isolate for the safety of everyone around me. I’m still at work, and will be back on the road soon," Biden said. Biden tested negative for COVID-19 on Wednesday after contracting the virus last week, prior to the announcement on Saturday afternoon. A White House official told Fox News that contact tracing is now underway since Biden tested positive for COVID-19 again.

Fauci says government must understand 'profound risk' of monkeypox to control spread - Dr. Anthony Fauci, chief medical adviser to President Biden, told NPR's All Things Considered Tuesday that, amid early transmission of monkeypox, it's important to understand "the extent of the spread, how it's spread, what population." He said it is a virus that medical professionals understand and one that they have available tools to use, unlike in the early months of the COVID-19 pandemic. In an interview with host Juana Summers, Fauci said about 99% of the cases have occurred in men who have sex with men. "We've got to understand the modality of transmission, the manifestations, also the risk for people like children and pregnant women," he said. "There's really a profound risk." Thus far, there have been only two cases in children. Fauci helped lead the battle against HIV and AIDS and said the federal government must combat any homophobic stigma associated with monkeypox by concentrating on the virus itself, not the people who are infected with it. "You reach out to the community. You make it very easy for them to have access to testing, to treatment, and to vaccines, as opposed to making it a situation where people are afraid to come forward for those types of things," he said. There are currently 19,188 confirmed cases of monkeypox in the current outbreak, with 3,591 cases in the U.S, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. New York had 900 of those cases, and California had the second-highest concentration with 356 confirmed cases. The CDC said the risk of contracting monkeypox in the U.S. is "believed to be low," but anyone who comes into close contact with an individual carrying the disease is at risk of infection.

Health Secretary Xavier Becerra: ‘Zero’ people have died from Monkeypox unlike Covid- -- video

More than 780,000 monkeypox vaccines for the U.S.- — The Food and Drug Administration cleared an additional facility in Denmark to finish manufacturing monkeypox vaccines, allowing more doses to be distributed and administered across the U.S., your host reports. In an announcement on Wednesday, the agency said it had completed an expedited inspection of Bavarian Nordic’s fill-finish plant for the Jynneos vaccine, which is cleared to prevent monkeypox and smallpox. Previously, the vaccine manufacturer had outsourced the process of dispensing the product into vials, but now with the FDA’s blessing, the company can finish vaccine production quicker.HHS will make more than 780,000 monkeypox vaccines available to states today: With Bavarian Nordic’s production capacity increased, more vaccines will be available to state and local health care providers, POLITICO’s Daniel Payne reports.Since May, the U.S. has recorded more than 4,600 cases of monkeypox, 99 percent of which are in people assigned male at birth who have sex with men. HHS Secretary Xavier Becerra told reporters Thursday he is not yet ready to declare monkeypox a public health emergency, though some officials believe the outbreak could spread beyond the MSM community if it is not controlled.Meanwhile, the CDC takes its own actions: The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is slated to increase its surveillance capacity by making monkeypox a nationally notifiable condition on Aug. 1, POLITICO’s Adam Cancryn and Erin Banco report. Although the designation will increase the agency’s ability to count cases nationwide, it doesn’t compel states to report the vaccinations they distribute.

 Obamacare back in court as Texans challenge coverage for STDs and HIV care - A key piece of the Affordable Care Act is on trial Tuesday as a group of Texans challenge the law’s requirement that insurers cover preventive services — everything from STD screenings and HIV prevention drugs to depression checks and flu shots. The case before Judge Reed O’Connor — the author of several anti-Obamacare rulings — at the U.S. District Court for the Northern District of Texas is the latest conservative-led legal effort to undermine the 12-year-old law, and could determine whether insurance companies are allowed to deny coverage or charge sky-high copays for common preventive care going forward. This challenge, filed in March of 2020 by a group of Texas residents and employers and backed by former Trump officials, argues that the ACA’s preventive care mandates violate the Religious Freedom Restoration Act and that forcing people to pay for plans that cover STD screenings and HIV prevention drugs will “facilitate and encourage homosexual behavior, prostitution, sexual promiscuity, and intravenous drug use.” “The government cannot possibly show that forcing private insurers to provide PrEP drugs, the HPV vaccine, and screenings and behavioral counseling for STDs and drug use free of charge is a policy of such overriding importance that it can trump religious-freedom objections,” the lawsuit reads. The Texans suing the Biden administration also argue that Congress never gave the civil servants and outside advisers at the Department of Health and Human Services the authority to come up with the list of preventive health services all insurance plans have to cover. Only someone nominated by the president and confirmed by the Senate, they argue, should have that power. Roger Severino sits in a chair and talks with his hands out. Roger Severino, then-director of the Office for Civil Rights, is interviewed at the office of Health and Human Services in Washington, D.C., on Feb. 1, 2018. | Jacquelyn Martin/AP Photo The lawyer arguing on their behalf is Jonathan Mitchell, the architect of Texas’ six-week abortion ban that offers a $10,000 bounty to private citizens who successfully sue an abortion provider. He is supported by an array of conservative groups, including one led by Roger Severino, the former head of HHS’ Office for Civil Rights.

Congress nears passage of innovation, research bill --After months of work, Congress is looking to pass an innovation and economic competitiveness package this week with large authorizations for the Department of Energy. The legislation would inject more than $50 billion to spur a domestic semiconductor manufacturing renaissance while also retooling the nation’s innovation engines to better address emerging 21st-century technologies. To get there, leaders and Biden administration officials are attempting to navigate the concerns of progressive lawmakers, who are expressing unease at the prospect of an alleged corporate handout to the chip industry despite backers calling the legislation a national security imperative. The Senate is holding another procedural vote this evening. “This is a matter of national security, and I don’t think we can put a price tag on it because we are in a very vulnerable spot,” Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo said yesterday on CBS’s “Face the Nation.” Leaders are looking to address progressive worries, especially stemming from Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.), by attaching so-called guardrails that would prevent companies from using federal funds for stock buyback campaigns or relocating facilities to China. Raimondo said the chip money will come with “many strings attached … so to say it is a blank check is just dead wrong.” House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) has also looked to highlight the legislation’s guardrails. “What’s really important is that — to us — is that there would be guardrails to ensure that chip investments benefit U.S. workers, not foreign companies — strengthening research and development for basic science and next-generation technologies,” Pelosi told reporters last week. While Democratic leaders are worried about their party’s left flank, conservatives are launching their own broadside against the bill over allegations it represents a “zombie-like” version of legislation passed by House Democrats earlier this year. Late last week the Republican Study Caucus, a group of House conservatives, said the emerging compromise in the Senate did not go far enough to fight China while also giving out billions in alleged “corporate welfare” benefits to the chip industry.

Senate passes innovation bill with billions for DOE research - The Senate approved a sprawling innovation and economic competitiveness package this afternoon that contains tens of billions of dollars in research spending authorizations at the Department of Energy and National Science Foundation.The 64-33 vote on the bill, H.R. 4346, is the culmination of an effort that began early last year. After numerous fits and starts, lawmakers ultimately agreed to a package this month centered on $52 billion in direct spending aimed at bolstering domestic semiconductor manufacturing, along with more than $200 billion in research authorizations.Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) and Sen. Todd Young (R-Ind.) were the the bill’s main catalysts.Seventeen Republicans voted for the package. Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) voted against it.The semiconductor provisions could prove important to solving supply chain bottlenecks affecting electric vehicles and solar components, among other energy and economywide implications, lawmakers said.“We don’t know exactly what innovations will come out of this, but we do know this: America will be more competitive because of it,” Senate Commerce, Science and Transportation Chair Maria Cantwell (D-Wash.) said. “And we do know this, that we will be able to grow our economy for the future because of the investments that we’ve made today.”The legislation includes an authorization of $50 billion over five years for DOE’s Office of Science, the first such reauthorization in the office’s history. The National Science Foundation meanwhile would get $81 billion over five years, including $20 billion for a new technology directorate meant to spur technologies like quantum computing and artificial intelligence.Dubbed the “CHIPS-plus” package, the provisions represent a slimmer version of what originally passed the House and Senate. Trade provisions, foreign policy tweaks and international climate spending were among the high-profile items dropped.

In victory for Democrats, Congress sends chip subsidy bill to Biden - The House approved a massive semiconductor subsidy and research bill known as the “Chips plus Science” Act, 243-187, with one lawmaker voting present, sending the legislation to President Joe Biden for his signature. The bill, in the works for almost two years, is intended to decrease U.S. reliance on computer chips manufactured in China and other countries, as well as fund science and technology research to keep American industries competitive with foreign firms. The vote represents a win for the White House and congressional Democrats, who in recent months stripped out a litany of provisions related to trade and competitiveness strategy toward China in an attempt to get the legislation over the finish line before the midterm elections. President Biden, who has hailed the legislation as “historic,” reiterated Thursday he will swiftly sign it into law. “The CHIPS and Science Act is exactly what we need to be doing to grow our economy right now,” the president said in a statement after the House passed the bill. “By making more semiconductors in the United States, this bill will increase domestic manufacturing and lower costs for families. And, it will strengthen our national security by making us less dependent on foreign sources of semiconductors.” Leading Democratic lawmakers described it as a “turning point” in the federal government’s involvement in strategic industries. “In the old days, we would leave our companies alone and we would say, just go do your thing,” Majority Leader Chuck Schumer said in an interview Wednesday, before the Senate passed the package. “But now there are nation states — in Europe, in Asia, particularly China — that are heavily investing in both science and in advanced manufacturing, and if we sit on our hands and do nothing, America will become a second rate economic power.”

Justice Department investigating data breach of federal court system - The Justice Department is investigating a data breach of the U.S. federal courts system dating to early 2020, a top official testified on Capitol Hill Thursday. House Judiciary Committee Chair Jerrold Nadler (D-N.Y.) told fellow lawmakers that “three hostile foreign actors” attacked the U.S. Courts’ document filing system as part of a breach in early 2020 causing a “system security failure.” The comments — at a committee hearing on oversight of the Justice Department’s National Security Division — were the first public disclosure of the hack. Nadler said the committee learned in March about the “startling breadth and scope” of the breach, which was separate from the SolarWinds hack revealed in late 2020. SolarWinds involved Russian government-backed hackers infiltrating the networks of over a dozen U.S. federal agencies for much of 2020, including the federal courts systems. Assistant Attorney General for National Security Matthew Olsen testified to the committee that NSD is “working very closely with the judicial conference and judges around the country to address this issue,” and committed to updating the committee on the investigation as it progressed. A committee aide said that Nadler’s questions came after the committee received a briefing on the attack, noting that “the sweeping impact it may have had on the operation of the Department of Justice is staggering.” The aide was granted anonymity in order to discuss a private briefing. Committee member Rep. Sheila Jackson Lee (D-Texas) pressed Olsen for more details on how many cases had been impacted by the breach. “I would expect your preparation and for us to be able to get that information as quickly as possible in a setting that would be appropriate, but this is a dangerous set of circumstances that has now been publicly announced, and we need to know how many…were dismissed,” Jackson Lee said. Nadler questioned Olsen on whether the breach had in any way affected cases pursued by the NSD, and Olsen testified he could not “think of anything in particular.” Sen. Ron Wyden (D-Ore.), a member of the Senate Intelligence Committee, sent a letter Thursday to the Administrative Office of the U.S. Courts expressing “serious concerns that the federal judiciary has hidden” the consequences of the data breach from Congress and the public.

Unbeknown to Most US Citizens, Washington is Preparing to Share Their Biometric Data With Dozens of Other National Governments --The US is planning to give up its citizens’ most precious data in exchange for the biometric data harvested by its “partner” governments in Europe and beyond. The Biden Adminstration is currently making an offer to dozens of governments in Europe and beyond that they probably will not be able to refuse. On offer is access to vast reams of sensitive data on US citizens held by the Department of Homeland Security. It includes the IDENT/HART database, which the British civil rights organization Statewatch describes as “the largest U.S. Government biometric database and the second largest biometric database in the world, containing over 270 million identities from over 40 U.S. agencies.” Biometric identifiers include fingerprints, facial features and other physiological characteristics that can be used for automated identification. In some cases, these identifiers have been harvested by the US government without the consent of the citizens in question (more on that later). The data-sharing arrangement is being offered to all 40 countries selected for the US government’s Visa Waiver Program (VWP). That means their citizens can travel to the U.S. for up to 90 days without a visa. They include all 27 EU Member States, three of the US’ four fellow members of the Five Eye Alliance (United Kingdom, New Zealand and Australia), Japan and South Korea.Of course, the US government wants something in return — namely the biometric data of the citizens of its partner states:“In turn, DHS may submit biometrics to IBIS partner countries to search against their biometric identity management systems in order for partner countries to provide DHS with sharable biographic, derogatory, and encounter information when a U.S. search matches their biometric records. This high-volume matching and data exchange is accomplished within minutes and is fully automated; match confirmation and supporting data is exchanged with no officer intervention.” The emphasis in the last sentence was added by Statewatch, for good reason. In the fully digitised world that is fast taking shape around us, many of the decisions or actions taken by local, regional or national authorities that affect us will be fully automated; no human intervention will be needed. That means that trying to get those decisions or actions reversed or overturned is likely to be a Kafkaesque nightmare.

House progressives balk at police funding bills - -House progressives are sounding the alarm about a series of bills that would increase funding for local law enforcement, arguing they risk alienating and angering Democratic base voters three months ahead of the midterm elections. House Democrats plan to bring the bills to the floor later this week at the request of moderate Democrats to blunt political attacks by Republicans that Democrats are soft on crime and want to “defund the police.” The bills are also an attempt to bolster Democrats' bona fides on public safety as voters are more worried about crime than they have been since 2016, according to Gallup. But progressives and their voters have been highly critical of additional funding for law enforcement without new policies governing policing practices following the killings in recent years of Black Americans in high-profile cases involving allegations and convictions of excessive force and the mistreatment of communities of color. They have asked Democratic leadership to reconsider putting the bills on the floor, arguing that it will suppress Democratic turnout in the midterms and risk dividing the party. The lawmakers are taking issue, in particular, with two bills that would provide additional funding for police without any new policing policies attached, including a grant program to hire additional police officers from Rep. Abigail Spanberger (D-Va.) and a second measure fromRep. Josh Gottheimer (D-N.J.) to provide grants to police departments with less than 200 officers. “Progressives know that communities across the country are concerned about public safety, and that frontliners in particular are eager to see Congress move on this issue,” a senior progressive Democratic aide who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss internal strategy told The Early. “That's why we've advocated for legislation — including bills introduced by frontliners — that would unite the Democratic Caucus, and that Democrats across the spectrum can support.”Some civil rights groups have also raised concerns. The Leadership Conference on Civil and Human Rights sent a letter to Democratic leadership Monday criticizing the additional police funding without requiring oversight and accountability measures. “We urge you not to take up any legislation that perpetrates these harmful realities and doubles down on the broken and discriminatory criminalization-first approach to public safety,” Maya Wiley, the group's president and chief executive, wrote. A proposal to overhaul policing tactics that passed the House last year died in the Senate, which was a major disappointment to Democrats who wanted police reform to be a key achievement this Congress.

Permanent daylight saving time hits brick wall in House -- More than four months after the Senate unanimously passed a bill to make daylight saving time permanent in the U.S., the measure has hit a brick wall in the House. The main impediments dimming the legislation’s chances of passing appear to be fundamental disagreements over its language and a general consensus that other matter take precedence as the House grapples with high inflation, gun massacres and fending off judicial threats on issues such as abortion and marriage equality. “I can’t say it’s a priority,” Rep. Frank Pallone Jr. (D-N.J.), the chairman of the House Energy and Commerce Committee, told The Hill recently. “We have so many other priorities, but it doesn’t mean because it’s not a priority that we’re not trying to work on it. We are,” he said, adding later, “If we can accomplish anything, it wouldn’t be until the fall.” The Senate created a buzz in March when it approved the Sunshine Protection Act — which would make daylight saving time permanent — through unanimous consent, drawing widespread headlines. The legislation, which would not take effect until November 2023, calls for abandoning the process of changing clocks twice a year, a practice intended to give Americans an extra hour of daylight during the fall and winter. But to do that, U.S. residents would lose an hour of daylight in the morning from November through February. For instance, with the law currently in place, the sun is scheduled to rise in New York at 7:16 a.m. on Dec. 21, the shortest day of the year. But if the Sunshine Protection Act takes effect, residents in the Empire State would have to wait until 8:16 a.m. to see the sun rise on the winter solstice. It is a similar situation in the afternoon: The sun will set in New York at 4:31 p.m. the day of the winter solstice, but with the Sunshine Protection Act, that would be pushed to 5:31 p.m.

 ‘Total bulls***’: Anger boils over after Republicans block bill to help vets exposed to burn pits - Democratic lawmakers and activists, including Jon Stewart, expressed their anger and frustration on Capitol Hill on Thursday toward Republican senators who blocked a bipartisan bill that would expand health care access for military veterans exposed to toxic burn pits.“This is total bulls***,” Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand, D-N.Y., said at a press conference outside the Capitol on Thursday morning. “This is the worst form of politicization I’ve literally ever seen. This is total BS. We had the votes.”Last month, the Senate voted 84-14 in favor of the legislation, called the Honoring Our Promise to Address Comprehensive Toxics Act, which had passed the House earlier this year.The measure would boost health care services and disability benefits for veterans suffering from exposure to the burn pits that were used in Iraq and Afghanistan to incinerate waste, with troops often using jet fuel as an accelerant. Because of a parliamentary glitch involving a tax provision, it was sent back to the House, where it easily passed. But more than two dozen Republican senators, led by Pat Toomey of Pennsylvania, voted Wednesday to delay its passage in order to cut some of the mandatory spending contained in the bill."My concern about this bill has nothing to do with the purpose of the bill," Toomey said, voicing his opposition to what he described as a "budgetary gimmick" that would allow $400 billion in additional spending.The move outraged those, like Gillibrand, who had fought for its passage.“We had strong bipartisan support for this bill,” Gillibrand said. “And at the eleventh hour, Sen. Toomey decides that he wants to rewrite the bill, change the rules and tank it. How he convinced 25 of his colleagues to change their vote, I have no idea. I mean, what the hell!”"Make no mistake about it," Sen. Jon Tester, D-Mont., said on the Senate floor Wednesday, shortly after the bill was blocked. "The American people are sick and tired of the games that go on in this body. They're sick and tired of us working for Democrats or working for Republicans and not working for the American people. But this is bigger than that."Tester blasted the "cowardice" shown by Republicans who "chose today to rob generations of toxic-exposed veterans across this country of the health care and benefits they've earned and so desperately need.""This is a sad day in the United States Senate," he said.Stewart, who has spent the past few years advocating on behalf of military veterans, did not mince words while speaking alongside vets and their families at Thursday's press conference."So ain't this a bitch," Stewart said. "America's heroes, who fought in our wars, sweating their asses off outside with oxygen, while these motherf***ers sit in the air conditioning, walled off from any of it. They don't have to hear it. They don't have to see it. They don't have to understand that these are human beings."I'm used to the hypocrisy," he continued. "I'm used to the cowardice. The Senate is where accountability goes to die. "I'm used to all of it," Stewart added. "But I'm not used to the cruelty."

 Justice Alito mocks Prince Harry and other foreign critics of abortion decision -- Supreme Court Justice Samuel Alito for the first time publicly addressed critics of his landmark opinion overturning Roe v. Wade, using a speech in Italy to make light of Britain's Prince Harry and other foreign figures who have lamented the rollback of U.S. protections for abortion. "What really wounded me, what really wounded me, was when the Duke of Sussex addressed the United Nations and seemed to compare the decision -- whose name may not be spoken -- with the Russian attack on Ukraine," Alito said in a sarcastic tone. The decision, Dobbs v. Jackson Women's Health, was released last month. Prince Harry had referenced "the rolling back of constitutional rights here in the U.S." as well as war in Ukraine as examples of why 2022 is "a painful year in a painful decade," during a speech July 18 in New York. Alito also made light of commentary from outgoing British Prime Minister Boris Johnson, French President Emmanuel Macron and Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau. "I had the honor this term of writing I think the only Supreme Court decision in the history of that institution that has been lambasted by a whole string of foreign leaders who felt perfectly fine commenting on American law," he said. "One of these was former Prime Minister Boris Johnson, but he paid the price." Alito appeared to reference Johnson's recent resignation after a series of scandals in office. The justice's comments came during a speech July 21 in Rome at a conference on religious liberty hosted by the University of Notre Dame Law School. The appearance was not previously announced by the Court; video of the speech was posted online Thursday. “It is hard to convince people that religious liberty is worth defending if they don’t think that religion is a good thing that deserves protection,” Alito told the audience. “The challenge for those who want to protect religious liberty in the United States, Europe, and other similar places is to convince people who are not religious that religious liberty is worth special protection. That will not be easy to do.”

Hulu refuses to run Democrats’ ads on abortion, guns and Jan. 6 - The Disney-backed streaming service Hulu is refusing to run political ads on central themes of Democratic midterm campaigns, including abortion and guns, prompting fury from the party’s candidates and leaders.The streaming service popular among younger voters, which has a policy against running content deemed controversial, is like other digital providers in not being bound by the Communications Act of 1934, a law that requires broadcast television networks to provide politicians equal access to the airwaves.The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee and Democratic Governors Association tried to purchase joint ads on abortion and guns with Hulu on July 15, along with identical placements on a Disney-affiliated ABC affiliate in Philadelphia and the company’s cable sports channel ESPN. The Hulu ads never ran, while the others did“Hulu’s censorship of the truth is outrageous, offensive, and another step down a dangerous path for our country,” the executive directors of the three committees, Christie Roberts, Tim Persico and Noam Lee, said in a statement provided to The Washington Post. “Voters have the right to know the facts about MAGA Republicans’ agenda on issues like abortion — and Hulu is doing a huge disservice to the American people by blocking voters from learning the truth about the GOP record or denying these issues from even being discussed.”The party committees join a growing list of Democratic candidates who have had spots mentioning gun violence, abortion or political violence rejected by Hulu.Suraj Patel, a Democratic candidate for Congress in New York City, posted a letter of protest, first reported by Jezebel, to Disney CEO Bob Chapek and Hulu President Joe Earley complaining that a Hulu representative told his campaign there was an “unwritten Hulu policy” that deemed the topics in one of his ads too “sensitive” for the platform. The ad in question mentioned Republican successes around abortion, climate change and gun violence, while also showing footage of the violence from the Jan. 6, 2021, attack on the U.S. Capitol.

Raskin says he doesn’t buy the Secret Service’s lost text story - Rep. Jamie Raskin (D-Md.), a member of the House committee investigating the Jan. 6, 2021, Capitol riot, said he doesn’t believe the Secret Service’s story regarding the deletion of text messages the panel subpoenaed. The committee asked the Secret Service to turn over text messages between agents from Jan. 5 and Jan. 6, 2021, to see if there was further evidence of former President Trump’s activities leading up to and during the riot. However, the Secret Service was only able to turn over one message, saying the rest were deleted during a device replacement program. “I don’t really buy that for one minute,” Raskin said on “The Late Show with Stephen Colbert.” “For one thing, isn’t it a little odd that all of the texts would vanish for Jan. 6th and Jan. 5th? Of all the days, what an odd coincidence that is.” “And, you know, there was a preplanned migration of the phones that just happened to be on the same day as the first violent insurrection in American history. So, I am a little dubious of that, so count me a skeptic.” The Secret Service said agents were told before the migration to flag any content that would be worth saving in the federal records, and agents are encouraged not to communicate through texts frequently due to security concerns. “There’s no reason for us to say the texts were lost. I mean, how do you know that those people texted? They were told to upload their official records, and they did. So this is partly what we’re going to communicate to the committee, all of the data that we have. People say texts were lost. How do you know texts were sent?” agency spokesman Anthony Guglielmi told The Hill. The Secret Service is facing harsh criticism over the deleted texts, with the National Archives saying the agency needs to conduct an internal investigation into the matter. The inspector general for the Department of Homeland Security (DHS), however, told the Secret Service to stop its internal investigation after the DHS launched a criminal probe into the deleted texts.

Secret Service identifies potential missing text messages from around Jan. 6 on 10 agents phones, report says - The Secret Service has identified potential missing text messages on the phones of 10 agents that were sent and received around January 6, 2021, a CNN report says.The agency found itself at the center of a political storm after it was revealed that text messages were deleted from their phones following the Capitol attack, which they said was due to a pre-planned agency-wide reset of phones and replacement of devices.Secret Service investigators are now probing phones that contain metadata showing that messages were sent and received on or around the day of the Capitol riot, CNN said, citing two unnamed sources.Investigators are working to determine whether the content of the text messages of the 10 agents contained relevant information that should have been preserved, the outlet reported.The Department of Homeland Security inspector general asked last year for the text records of 24 Secret Service personnel who were on duty on January 6, 2021, in order to learn more about the activities of then-President Donald Trump, who the Secret Service protects, on the day of the riot.The House January 6 committee last week subpoenaed the text messages and other information after being told by a government watchdog that a trove of agency texts had been erased. The agency submitted just one text to the committee in response to the subpoena. Of the 24 Secret Service personnel now being investigated, 10 other Secret Service personnel had no text messages, and three had only personal records, sources told CNN.

New Jan. 6 panel evidence shows Trump altered his post-Capitol riot speech - Former President Donald Trump removed key lines from a draft document of his Jan. 7, 2021, speech that would have condemned rioters at the Capitol insurrection the day prior as not representing “our movement.”A screengrab of Trump’s draft speech, which he made handwritten edits to, is shown in a video of Jan. 6 committee evidence and testimony shared by panel member Rep. Elaine Luria (D-Va.) on Twitter. The video shows edits and various lines crossed out of the prepared remarks in black Sharpie, which Trump’s daughter Ivanka identified as her father’s handwriting in an interview with the committee.POLITICO originally obtained and reported on Trump’s draft speech, titled “Remarks on National Healing,” in January.The former president specifically crossed out a line directed at Jan. 6 rioters that said: “I want to be very clear. You do not represent me. You do not represent our movement.” He also changed a line that originally said those who broke the law “belong in jail” to instead say that they “will pay.”Another portion crossed out by Trump reads: “I am directing the Department of Justice to ensure all lawbreakers are prosecuted to the fullest extent of the law. We must send a clear message — not with mercy but with JUSTICE. Legal consequences must be swift and firm.”In an interview with the Jan. 6 panel, Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner said he didn’t know why Trump crossed those lines out.Several former Trump aides also said in interviews with the panel that they pushed the president to put out a stronger statement on Jan. 7 condemning the riot, especially following an influx of criticism and talk of invoking the 25th Amendment to remove him from office. Trump’s former director of the presidential personnel office, John McEntee, said in an interview with the committee that he believed the former president was reluctant to give the speech and that Kushner urged him to “nudge this along” with Trump.

Cheney blasts Sen. Tom Cotton for criticizing Jan. 6 hearings -- Rep. Liz Cheney (R-Wyo.) ripped Sen. Tom Cotton (R-Ark.) on Monday evening for his criticisms of the public hearings put on by the House committee investigating the Jan. 6, 2021, attack on the Capitol.“Hey @SenTomCotton – heard you on @hughhewitt criticizing the Jan 6 hearings,” Cheneytweeted. “Then you said the strangest thing; you admitted you hadn’t watched any of them.”Cotton spoke with conservative radio talk show host Hugh Hewitt on Monday morning, where he argued that the lack of cross-examination of witnesses in hearings concerning Jan. 6 was a departure from “Anglo-American jurisprudence.”“I think what you’ve seen over the last few week is why Anglo-American jurisprudence going back centuries has found that adversarial inquiry, cross-examination is the best way to get at the truth,” Cotton said.He continued, “There is no one on that committee who takes a view different from Nancy Pelosi, or even a view that’s like, we should examine the full context of all of these statements, of all of these recordings, of all of this video.”Cheney, one of the two Republicans on the Jan. 6 committee, hit back at Cotton for criticizing hearings he acknowledged not watching. “Here’s a tip: actually watching them before rendering judgment is more consistent with ‘Anglo-American jurisprudence,'” she said.

McCarthy pushes back against Cassidy Hutchinson's Jan. 6 committee testimony, insisting that calls to the White House that day were for one reason alone: 'I was trying to find the president' | Business Insider AfricaThe House GOP minority leader said he didn't want anyone at the Capitol during the deadly attack.A White House aide testified that McCarthy called her in a panic to stop Trump from visiting.House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy said Friday that he and then-President Donald Trump never discussed a post-Stop the Steal rally visit to the US Capitol on January 6, 2021, and that any calls he made while rioters stormed the building were about locating the absentee POTUS."I was trying to find the president," McCarthy told reporters of the back-and-forth that went on with the White House while MAGA supporters attacked lawmakers.The California Republican's latest comment contradicts testimony former Trump White House aide Cassidy Hutchinson provided to the January 6 select committee. Hutchinson told investigators that McCarthy flew into a rage during a conversation they had after Trump closed out his election fraud-centric speech on the Ellipse by declaring that he was going to march to the Capitol with the partially-armed crowd."Well, he just said it on stage, Cassidy. Figure it out. Don't come up here," Hutchinson said McCarthy ordered during the combative call.McCarthy attempted to refute every part of that during Friday's press conference in the Capitol.He told reporters he didn't watch Trump's "fight like hell" speech that day so he couldn't have known about any trek to the Capitol. "I was busy working," McCarthy told CNN correspondent Manu Raju.McCarthy conceded that he did reach out to the White House once rioters breached security, but said he only called Trump advisors Dan Scavino and Jared Kushner to find out where Trump was during that chaotic time.McCarthy said he didn't recall speaking to Hutchinson that day. But he added that if he did, he wouldn't have been inviting anyone to join the MAGA-related melee."If I talked to her, I don't remember it," McCarthy said. "If it was coming up here, I don't think I wanted a lot of people coming up to the Capitol."

Jan. 6 committee has a formal path to share investigative material with DOJ, its chair says - The Jan. 6 select committee has formalized a path to share witness transcripts and evidence with the Justice Department, its chair Rep. Bennie Thompson (D-Miss.) told POLITICO Thursday. “We’ve put a template together for sharing information, sharing it with Justice. My understanding is, there’s general agreement on it,” Thompson said. Agreement on evidence-sharing would mark a significant milestone as the DOJ inquiry into efforts by Donald Trump and others to overturn the 2020 election enters a more public-facing phase. Federal investigators have sought to access the congressional committee’s 1,000-plus witness interview transcripts since April, but the select panel has resisted as its probe continued to generate extraordinary new evidence and witness testimony. Now, though, as DOJ delves even more deeply into the former president’s inner circle and the select committee’s most significant round of public hearings has concluded, there appears to be greater urgency for prosecutors to obtain evidence the select committee has gathered. In a wide-ranging interview, Thompson said the select committee is entering an intense period of closed-door work to handle “housekeeping” matters — such as how to handle the five GOP members of Congress the panel subpoenaed but who have refused to comply. He said the panel is still mulling decisions about whether to formally request testimony from Trump and former Vice President Mike Pence. He also said he anticipates an August release of a National Guard-focused report detailing the security flaws that contributed to the violence at the Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021.

 Jan. 6 defendant Jeremy Brown is running for Florida's House from jail - On the anniversary of the Jan. 6, 2021, riot at the U.S. Capitol, a flag-waving crowd gathered outside the Florida jail where an alleged participant was being held.Jeremy Michael Brown, a retired Special Forces soldier charged with trespassing and disorderly conduct on restricted Capitol grounds, addressed them through a phone call played over a loudspeaker. The 47-year-old Tampa resident and member of the extremist Oath Keepers group decried the “tyrannical government,” read a lengthy passage from the Bible and portrayed himself as engaged in a fight for “the liberty of every American.”Then Brown made an announcement that sent the crowd into cheers.“Today, January 6, 2022, from the maximum-security section of the Pinellas County jail,” he said, “I, Jeremy Brown, announce my candidacy for Florida state House of Representatives.”Within a few months of that speech, he had collected enough signatures to qualify as a candidate and run a long-shot campaign for Florida’s District 62 — all from jail. As the sole Republican candidate, Brown, who has pleaded not guilty and is awaiting trial on felony and misdemeanor charges, is set to run against the winner of the August Democratic primary. The newly drawn district includes heavily blue areas; about 72 percent of voters there went for President Biden, according to the Tampa Bay Times, which reported on Brown’s campaign this week.Trump officials hold summit to plan Republican takeover - Former Trump administration officials and allies gathered in Washington yesterday to prepare for the day when they might get to dismantle President Joe Biden’s climate and energy agenda. The “America First Agenda Summit” attracted hundreds of Republican activists and officials. It was organized by the America First Policy Institute, which has been nicknamed the “White House in waiting.” It is run by a group of top Trump advisers and Cabinet officials who are putting together a policy agenda for the next Republican president, whether it’s former President Donald Trump or someone else. The group is headed by Brooke Rollins, Trump’s former White House domestic policy adviser. It includes former top economic adviser Larry Kudlow, former national security adviser Robert O’Brien, top aide Kellyanne Conway, and former Energy Secretary Rick Perry. Rollins said the group formed shortly after Trump left the White House, but that its work began before the November 2020 election. Now, the group is outlining new policies patterned on Trump’s presidency. Rolllins told the crowd that the organization will be “the hallmark, the linchpin for securing freedom in this country, not for two years or four years, but for 100 years.” Attendees swarmed around Trump world celebrities like Conway, sometimes seeking selfies. They lined up to shake Perry’s hand and share a word. They cheered every mention of Trump’s U.S.-Mexico border wall and booed when Biden was brought up, particularly when former House Speaker Newt Gingrich (R-Ga.) called him a “doddering guy.” Officials previewed a number of energy policies they hope to implement after the 2024 election, which could see a rematch of the 2020 election between Biden and Trump. The America First Policy Institute is focused on reauthorizing offshore oil leasing and production, expanding pipelines and building a network of small nuclear reactors. It also supports rolling back regulations and environmental protections and speeding up energy infrastructure permitting. Another strategy could be to reshape the federal government by firing or reassigning career officials. The group wants them to be replaced by loyalists to Trump or the next Republican president. Gingrich said the America First Policy Institute is crafting policy for the next Republican president in the way that the Heritage Foundation did for President Ronald Reagan in the years leading up to his 1980 election. He said he expects that many of America First’s 150 employees would be scooped up by a Republican administration. Gingrich said one of the first goals of the next Republican administration would be to fire tens of thousands of civil servants, including those who work on climate and energy issues. Trump issued such an order, called Schedule F, late in his presidency, but did not fully utilize its powers. “We have a seasoned enough cadre that, if we work at it methodically … we can reshape the federal government,” Gingrich said. 4:50 PM

Hunter Biden 'Almost Certainly' Broke FARA Laws: Report - Hunter Biden's failure to register as a foreign agent while conducting business overseas, much like former Trump campaign manager Paul Manafort, almost certainly violated foreign lobbying laws under the federal Foreign Agents Registration Act (FARA).According to the New York Post, while Hunter registered as a lobbyist for domestic interests ("a gig which so annoyed President Obama that Biden was forced to drop it in 2008"), he never registered as a "foreign principal" under the 1938 law - a crime which carries a punishment of up to five years in federal prison and a $250,000 fine.We aren't holding our breath. That said...The Post’s examination of Biden’s infamous abandoned laptop in the last year has exposed myriad foreign business schemes the then-Vice President’s son tried to shepherd. Last week The Post revealed dozens of sit-downs between Hunter and Joe Biden that were frequently scheduled just days after Hunter visited with foreign officials. -NY Post"The recent disclosures of additional foreign contacts has only strengthened what was already a strong case. Indeed, in the last few weeks, the compelling basis for a FARA charge has becomes unassailable and undeniable," according to law professor Jonathan Turley. "The influence peddling schemes directly reference the President and [Joe Biden] is repeatedly cited as a possible recipient of funds."And while a CNN report from last week indicated that the DOJ is focusing on Hunter's tax issues and alleged violations of federal firearm regulations, the first son's foreign dealings have undoubtedly been part of the investigation - particularly since the Post exposed evidence of extensive foreign dealings from Hunter's "laptop from hell," which they published in October 2020 shortly before the US election.

Nearly one in three Americans say it may soon be necessary to take up arms against the government - A majority of Americans say the U.S. government is corrupt and almost a third say it may soon be necessary to take up arms against it, according to a new poll from the University of Chicago’s Institute of Politics.Two-thirds of Republicans and independents say the government is “corrupt and rigged against everyday people like me,” according to the poll, compared to 51 percent of liberal voters.Twenty-eight percent of all voters, including 37 percent of gun owners, agreed “it may be necessary at some point soon for citizens to take up arms against the government,” a view held by around 35 percent of Republicans and around 35 percent of Independents. One in five Democrats concurred.The findings come after a House committee investigating the Jan. 6, 2021, riots at the U.S. Capitol wrapped up its final hearing for the summer, seeking to place former President Trump at the heart of efforts to overturn the 2020 election.The panel also said Trump readily accepted and even encouraged the attack from his supporters, watching violence play out on television for nearly three hours before finally making a statement telling them to go home.Despite the hearings, Trump still enjoys broad support among Republicans, who are more concerned about inflation, education and crime than they are about Jan. 6.About 56 percent of Americans say elections are fair and accurate, but that number falls to 33 percent among Republicans, according to the Chicago University poll.The division between conservatives and liberals across the country is only growing, the poll shows, and a quarter of Americans say they have lost friends over politics.More than 70 percent of Republicans and more than 70 percent of Democrats both agree the other side “are generally bullies who want to impose their political beliefs on those who disagree.”And half of all Americans believe the other side is misinformed about politics because of where they get their information and news, the poll found.

New assault rifle being sold to civilians is twice as powerful as the AR-15 and capable of shooting through bulletproof vests, report says - A gun company is marketing an assault rifle that can shoot through bulletproof vests to civilians, a report says, amid ongoing debates about gun control following a string of deadly mass shootings. SIG Sauer's MCX-SPEAR is the civilian equivalent of the US Army's NGSW-R (Next Generation Squad Weapon-Rifle), specifically created to tear through body armor, The Daily Beast reported. "It'll shoot through almost all of the bulletproof vests worn by law enforcement in the county right now," Ryan Busse, a former firearms company executive now a senior policy analyst with the Giffords Law Center, told the outlet.The gun fires bullets with twice the kinetic energy of those from an AR-15 has a longer range, and has a noise suppressor that could make a gunman harder to locate, the outlet reported."The MCX-SPEAR was developed with direct input from US warfighters to provide more power, distance, and accuracy to replace the current M4 rifle platform," the company's website says.Making the gun commercially available raises questions about the possible outcomes if it were to get into the hands of a mass shooter.Policy analyst Busse told the outlet that while AR-15s are lighter and more maneuverable than MCX-SPEARs, bullets from the latter can hit much harder over greater distances. Busse said the gun could help mass shooters become "a long-range sniper with an AR-15-style gun."

 House votes to reinstate 'assault weapons' ban for first time in decades - House Democrats on Friday passed a historic bill to ban so-called assault weapons in response to a spate of mass shootings this year — a major victory for the left after party leaders failed to land the votes for a broader slate of public safety bills also awaiting floor action. The gun vote, passed 217-213, marks the first time in nearly three decades that lawmakers have attempted to reinstate the long-expired ban on semiautomatic firearms, a huge party priority. Speaker Nancy Pelosi, who announced the decision to vote Friday morning, called it “a crucial step in our ongoing fight against the deadly epidemic of gun violence in our nation.” Still, the decision to vote on only that bill — and not a handful of policing bills also under consideration — has stung for many centrists Democrats in the caucus, who were eager to vote on bills to support law enforcement before leaving Washington this week. Hours earlier, moderate leader Rep. Josh Gottheimer (D-N.J.) and Congressional Black Caucus chief Rep. Joyce Beatty (D-Ohio) had secured an eleventh-hour deal to resolve many Black Democrats’ concerns with those policing bills. But that compromise, which included some new accountability measures for police departments, infuriated many House progressives, including those in the Black Caucus. Several liberal Black Democrats were particularly “livid” at the language, according to one person familiar with the discussions, and some complained that the accountability language did too little during a closed-door meeting of Black Caucus members Friday morning.

DOJ accuses Russian operative of conspiring with U.S. groups to push propaganda - — The Justice Department on Friday unsealed an indictment in Tampa charging a Russian operative with conspiring to influence unnamed groups in Florida, California and Georgia to interfere with U.S. elections and further Russian propaganda. The Justice Department accused Aleksandr Viktorovich Ionov of working for at least seven years on behalf of the Kremlin to recruit and pay American groups to “publish pro-Russian propaganda.” Ionov is not currently in custody.“Ionov allegedly orchestrated a brazen influence campaign, turning U.S. political groups and U.S. citizens into instruments of the Russian government,” said Assistant Attorney General Matthew Olsen of the Justice Department’s National Security Division in a news release.Authorities say Ionov worked with one group in St. Petersburg, Fla., and is alleged to have sent the leader of the unidentified group to Russia — once for a conference sponsored by the organization Ionov founded, the Anti-Globalization Movement of Russia.The Tampa Bay Times reported that the Florida-based group could be the Uhuru Movement, a socialist and African internationalist group. Federal authorities served a search warrant at a location connected to the group, the publication reported.Ionov is also accused in 2016 of funding the Florida group’s multi-city demonstration “in support of a ‘Petition on Crime of Genocide against African People in the United States,’” and supported two of the leaders’ political campaigns.

Ghislaine Maxwell Transferred To Low-Security Prison In Florida -- Convicted sex trafficker Ghislaine Maxwell has been moved to a low-security federal prison in Florida, which offers a number of amenities including yoga and movies, to serve out her 20-year prison sentence. The Federal Bureau of Prisons lists Maxwell, 60, at the Federal Correctional Institution in Tallahassee, which is described on its website as a “low security federal correctional institution with a detention center.” A judge had asked to have her serve out her sentence in the Federal Correctional Institution Danbury, in Connecticut. Accused of being a madam to convicted sex trafficker Jeffrey Epstein, Maxwell was convicted in December of five federal charges including sex trafficking of a minor. Prosecutors accused the UK socialite and Epstein, a multimillionaire, of plotting to lure and groom young girls into relationships with Epstein between 1994 and 2004. She is slated to be released from prison in 2037. At FCI Tallahassee, inmates can participate in yoga, pilates, weights, softball, flag football, and frisbee, according to the Zoukis Consulting Group. Maxwell also will be able to watch movies at the prison, the prison consulting group’s website says

 Powell: Economy, banks can handle aggressive rate hikes | American Banker— The Federal Reserve continued tightening its monetary policy at the fastest pace in decades, raising the federal funds rate by three-quarters of a percentage point during its Federal Open Market Committee meeting Wednesday. Brushing off concerns that such swift increases could threaten financial stability, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said well-capitalized banks will help the economy withstand the volatility of a rising rate environment. “From a financial stability perspective … asset values are down, which … lowers vulnerabilities. It's when they're really high, that you would worry that they're vulnerable to a fall,” Powell said during a press conference Wednesday afternoon. “I think you've got a well-capitalized banking system. I think you have households that are, generally, in about as strong financial shape as they have been in a very long time, or perhaps ever, given the money that’s on people's balance sheets. “From a financial stability standpoint, you have a pretty decent picture,” he said.Since March, the FOMC has raised the federal funds rate from its lower bound to a target range of 2.25%-2.5%, as the Fed takes an aggressive stance toward battling inflation, which continues to run at a 40-year high. This week’s 75-basis-point increase was the second of its size in the past couple of months. The Fed’s campaign of rate increases has been notably more aggressive than the string of 25-basis-point increases forecast in March. Last month’s increase was the steepest since 1994 and the Fed has not raised rates this quickly since the 1980s. The overall interest rate remains low from a historical context, but the pace of the increases has some economists worried about a potential credit event, in which changing asset prices trigger margin calls and rapid selloffs. Fed interest rate risk has also risen on the list of concerns for market participants in recent months.Powell noted that the Fed has a history of taking aggressive action on adjusting interest rates when appropriate, pointing to the 1980s and 1994, specifically. During the current round of tightening, he said, markets have responded well thus far.

 Federal Data Show JPMorgan Chase Is, By Far, the Riskiest Bank in the U.S. --By Pam Martens and Russ Martens: --The long-tenured Chairman and CEO of JPMorgan Chase, Jamie Dimon, likes to use the phrase “fortress balance sheet,” when talking about his bank to Congress or shareholders. But the data stored at its federal regulators show that the bank is, by far, the most systemically dangerous bank in the United States. And, despite its high risk profile, neither Congress nor federal regulators have restricted its growth. Its assets have soared by 65 percent since the end of 2016 and stood at $3.95 trillion as of March 31, making it the largest bank in the United States.Making this situation even more dangerous, the bank has admitted to five criminal felony counts over the past eight years and a multitude of civil crimes and multi-billion dollar fines — all during the tenure of Dimon. Neither Congress nor federal regulators nor the Justice Department that brought those felony counts has demanded that Dimon be replaced. The Board of Directors of the bank has been equally obsequious toward Dimon, awarding him a $50 million bonus after the bank admitted to its fourth and fifth felony counts for “tens of thousands” of trades that rigged the precious metals and U.S. Treasury markets.Our data comes from the National Information Center, a repository of bank data collected by the Federal Reserve. It is part of the Federal Financial Institutions Examination Council (FFIEC), which was created by federal legislation to create uniformity in the examination of U.S. financial institutions by the various banking regulators. The most recent data is for the period ending December 31, 2020. It indicates that in 8 out of 12 measurements – or two-thirds of all systemic risk measurements – JPMorgan Chase ranks at the top for having the riskiest footprint among its peer banks.One of the 12 financial metrics is based on the Intra-Financial System Liabilities of each bank. This shows how much money a particular bank has at risk at other banks by using inputs such as how much of its funds it has on deposit with, or has been lent to, other financial institutions; the unused portion of any credit lines it has committed to other financial institutions; and its holdings of debt, equity, commercial paper, etc. of other financial institutions. The idea is to understand the interconnectivity of systemically-risky megabanks and whether one distressed megabank could cause a daisy-chain of contagion with other megabanks — such as the contagion caused by Citigroup and Lehman Brothers in 2008.JPMorgan Chase’s footprint for Intra-Financial System Liabilities is huge. The 2020 data show that JPMorgan Chase has $577 billion exposure in that category. That’s an increase of $182 billion over what it showed in that category in 2019 – a startling increase of 46 percent in one year. Equally unnerving, JPMorgan Chase ranks number one in the instruments that played a major role in blowing up Wall Street in 2008 – OTC (Over-the-Counter) derivatives. These are private contracts between two parties and lack the transparency or protections of being traded on an exchange. This means if the counterparty defaults and the exposure is large enough, it could put a federally-insured bank at risk. This is not a hypothetical scenario. The giant insurer, AIG, blew itself up in 2008 because it was holding tens of billions of dollars in OTC derivative contracts for the biggest banks on Wall Street, on which it could not pay its obligations. The U.S. government was forced to nationalize AIG and paid more than $90 billion to the banks for their AIG derivative contracts and securities lending obligations. According to the data, JPMorgan Chase has the largest exposure to OTC derivatives, with $44.38 trillion exposure.

CFPB’s Chopra: ‘We will be litigating’ -- Rohit Chopra, the director of the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, has prodded banks to drop overdraft fees, hit large corporate wrongdoers with enforcement actions and set his sights on regulating Big Tech firms. In a wide-ranging interview with American Banker, Chopra detailed the dangers of Big Tech firms moving into financial services and the urgent need to bring them into the regulatory fold, an area that could help banks navigate a changing world revolving around real-time payments. He also addressed the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp.’s decision to further a request for information related to a review of bank merger processes, a vote that sidelined former Chair Jelena McWilliams and ultimately led to her resignation. Chopra dismissed the brouhaha, which drew congressional complaints, as nothing more than majority rule.Chopra has drawn considerable fire from political and corporate opponents to his initiatives in his time in office, with the U.S. Chamber of Commerce notably saying his “radical agenda and reckless approach” exceed his legal authority. In the interview, which was part of an outreach campaign with individual consumer finance journalists that were all scheduled to be published on Wednesday, Chopra defended his actions to date as deliberate and carefully chosen stances that are meant to benefit consumers.Here are six of the most impactful insights from the interview, which you can read in fullhere.

Lawmakers clash over overdraft reform during House markup hearing — Lawmakers on the House Financial Services Committee clashed mightily on Wednesday afternoon over a bill that would introduce new limits and regulations over bank overdraft programs.Convening for a markup hearing Wednesday, Rep. Carolyn Maloney of New York introduced the long-awaited Overdraft Protection Act, a bill that would require customers to opt in to overdraft programs and limit the number of times such fees could be charged to customers. “The bill before us,” said Maloney during the hearing, “cuts back on unfair, unnecessary, deceptive fees, and, according to the [Consumer Financial Protection Bureau], will keep $8 billion a year, minimum, in consumers’ pockets.” Democrats have taken an increasingly sharp interest in banks’ overdraft practices, and in response some banks have made significant changes to their programs. With Democrats’ current majority on the committee, the Overdraft Protection Act is expected to pass through the markup by week’s end, when lawmakers reconvene to hold tallied votes. It remains unclear if and when lawmakers in the Senate will take up Maloney’s bill. But earlier this month, key Democratic Sens. Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts and Cory Booker of New Jersey rallied with Maloney outside the U.S. Capitol in support of the bill. Retail bank advocates and some Republicans have pushed back against a crackdown on overdraft fees, saying that many Americans use overdrafts responsibly as a form of short-term credit. The Consumer Bankers Association has argued in recent days that “eliminating the product would greatly harm those most in need.”

Ukraine Wants Citi, JPMorgan And HSBC Prosecuted For 'War Crimes' - Ukraine wants major US and European banks prosecuted for "committing war crimes" because they finance companies that trade oil with Russia, according to CNBC, citing President Volodomyr Zelensky's top economic aide, Oleg Ustenko. :”Everybody who is financing these war criminals, who are doing these terrible things in Ukraine, are also committing war crimes in our logic," Ustenko told the network on Tuesday, calling out banks such as JPMorgan, HSBC and Citi.When asked if the banks should be prosecuted for war crimes, Ustenko replied "Exactly."Ustenko said Zelenskyy believes these banks should be held accountable for prolonging the conflict and the war on Ukraine.His comments came in response to a FT report last week, which said that Ukraine’s government wrote to the chiefs of U.S. and European banks — such as Jamie Dimon from JPMorgan and Noel Quinn from HSBC — urging them to cut ties with the groups that are trading Russian oil. -CNBCAccording to letters seen by the FT, Ustenko asked the banks to cut off financing to any businesses that deal in Russian oil, and to divest from Gazprom and Rosneft, Russia's primary state-owned oil and gas companies.The letters directly accuse Citigroup and Credit Agricole of "prolonging" the war by extending financing to companies that ship Russian oil, and warns that said banks won't be allowed to take part in Ukraine's reconstruction when the war is over.Ustenko told CNBC that the Zelensky administration is gathering evidence to send to the International Criminal Court."We are collecting all these information" on companies that are financing Russia, he said. "Our Ministry of Justice and our security service of Ukraine are collecting. And then later, this is going to be passed to the ICC."

JPMorgan, UBS brokerage units pay SEC fines for anti-identity theft programs - U.S. brokerage units of JPMorgan Chase and UBS Group agreed to pay a combined $2.1 million in penalties to settle allegations from the Securities and Exchange Commission that they didn’t have the proper policies and programs in place to prevent customer identity theft. According to the SEC, from at least January 2017 to October 2019 the firms didn’t have sufficient procedures for detecting identity theft in connection with client accounts. The brokerages, which didn’t admit or deny the allegations, violated regulations that lay out requirements for financial firms’ prevention programs, the agency said on Wednesday. JPMorgan agreed to pay $1.2 million and UBS $925,000 to settle the cases, the SEC said. “Protecting the privacy and security of our client data is of the utmost importance to UBS,” the firm said in a statement, adding that it was pleased to have resolved the matter. “The SEC did not find that any clients were impacted and acknowledged that UBS had made substantial enhancements to its program.” A representative for JPMorgan said the bank is committed to protecting clients from identity theft and fraud. “The deficiencies described today were addressed years ago and there was no finding of client impact,” the spokesperson said. “The firm is in full compliance with regulatory requirements.”

CFPB fines U.S. Bank $37.5 million for sham accounts --The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau slapped U.S. Bank with a $37.5 million fine after finding that the bank’s employees unlawfully accessed credit reports and personal customer data to open unauthorized checking, savings and credit card accounts. The allegations by the CFPB are similar to ones that arose from the Wells Fargo fake-accounts scandal that broke in 2016. At the time, then-U.S. Bancorp CEO Richard Davis insisted that the $559 billion-asset bank did not impose sales quotas. The CFPB found that U.S. Bank opened a wide range of accounts — including reserve and premier lines of credit that carry high interest rates and expensive fees — without the permission of customers. The Minneapolis-based bank disclosed last May in a securities filing that it was under investigation by the CFPB for conduct that harmed consumers. “For over a decade, U.S. Bank knew its employees were taking advantage of its customers by misappropriating consumer data to create fictitious accounts,” CFPB Director Rohit Chopra said in a statement. “We all must do more to hold lawbreaking companies accountable when they abuse and misuse our sensitive personal data.” The bureau said the bank had inadequate procedures from 2010 through 2016 to prevent and detect fake account openings. The bank did not provide consumers with disclosures that are legally required when opening new deposit accounts, the bureau said. The CFPB’s investigation took more than five years. A spokesman for U.S. Bank said a small number of unauthorized accounts were opened.

Ex-Goldman banker pleads not guilty in insider trading case -Former Goldman Sachs Group vice president Brijesh Goel pleaded not guilty to charges that he illegally traded on confidential information he obtained while working at the investment bank. Goel, 37, was arraigned Thursday in federal court in Manhattan. He was allowed to remain free on a $1 million bond, which replaces a $500,000 bond set on Tuesday. Prosecutors allege Goel passed along information he received about potential Goldman deals to a friend over squash games and then split the trading profits. In court on Thursday, a prosecutor said the evidence against Goel would include conversations recorded by a cooperating witness. A person familiar with the matter said the cooperator is Akshay Niranjan. The Securities and Exchange Commission named Niranjan, 33, as a co-defendant with Goel in a civil suit over the same trades, but he wasn’t included in the criminal case announced Monday. Niranjan, a foreign exchange trader, was described in the SEC suit as a longtime friend and squash partner of Goel’s. According to his since-deleted LinkedIn profile, Niranjan worked at Barclays from 2013 to 2018 and joined the bank again in 2021. He is no longer employed at Barclays, according to a person familiar with the matter. Mark Lane, a spokesman for the bank, declined to comment.

Borrowers Face Tens Of Billions In Margin Calls On Swap Positions As Rates Rise - While most financial pundits have been keeping an eye on stocks or commodities as potential catalysts of market crisis, a far less exotic source of contagion has quietly emerged as rates have soared to levels not seen in over a decade: as IFR reports, this year’s steep rise in financing costs is causing a "once-in-a-generation cash crunch for borrowers in capital markets that have used derivatives to hedge their debt issuance", forcing many to scramble to find additional funds to meet margin calls they face on swap positions. Some background: most debt issuers, whether it's banks, corporate treasurers or public sector borrowers, will swap the cashflows from their fixed-rate debt to floating interest rates. While that can lower their financing costs in the near term, it leaves them vulnerable to a liquidity squeeze if rates suddenly jerk higher. That is because many have agreed to post collateral – or variation margin – to their swaps dealers when the value of their positions moves against them. And, boy, have most swap positions moved against their issuers. Not that one can really blame them: such unprecedented surges in rates have been a rarity during the past decade of rock-bottom interest rates. But the backdrop changed dramatically this year as central banks - having uniformly realized they are far behind the curve - have moved to tame sky-high inflation. The 10-year US dollar swap rate reached an 11-year high of 3.5% in mid-June, Refinitiv data show. It has since eased to about 2.8%, but has still more than doubled over the past 12 months. Other developed swap markets have notched similar rises. Those moves would have triggered tens of billions of dollars in margin calls for companies that had swapped to floating rates at lower levels, forcing them to cast around for more cash at what remains a challenging time for many, especially when it comes to tapping primary debt markets. That has prompted an increase in demand for short-term funding such as commercial paper and repurchase agreements, bankers say, where volumes have surged this year. “As rates go up, these issuers may have to post meaningful amounts of variation margin on their swaps to cover any mark-to-market moves on those positions,” said Bhaavit Agrawal, head of private placements for rates and currencies at Citigroup. "Given rates in [US dollars and euros] have generally been in a downward trend over the last decade or so, this year is the first sustained episode in a while that issuers are facing liquidity outflows from the hedges of their debt issuance."

 Banks continue to pursue banking as a service despite headwinds -A swath of banks are gearing up to offer their banking services to fintechs for the first time, or accelerating the efforts they have dabbled in so far.Encore Bank in Little Rock, Arkansas, is exploring the possibility of becoming a BaaS provider. Climate First Bank in St. Petersburg, Florida, has a long-term plan to boost the banking capabilities of environmentally minded fintechs. Central Pacific Bank in Honolulu’sfirst foray into BaaS, a challenger bank called Swell, will soon launch. Lead Bank, in Kansas City, Missouri, hired a banking-as-a-service director last year to ramp up its program. Providing financial services to fintechs behind the scenes is a relatively cheap way to acquire new customers on the deposit side and generate loan volume on the lending side. During periods of low interest rates, it is an appealing way to generate fee income. “It was also a way banks could ride and benefit from the fintech wave instead of compete,” said Jonah Crane, a partner at advisory and investment firm Klaros Group, in a recent interview. “Banks saw hey, there is higher fee income, higher return on assets, higher return on equity, it will drive a higher valuation multiple. And every day there are a bunch of new fintechs raising large amounts of money, getting into the space and needing partners.”But the timing of these new launches is counterintuitive. Interest rates are going up; fintechs are facing their own downturn; banks’ relationships with fintechs are increasingly scrutinized by regulators.During American Banker’s Digital Banking conference, Crane posed a question: Have we reached “peak BaaS”? In other words, some of the trends propelling BaaS are reversing, he pointed out. Conversations with banks entering or heightening their presence in this space reveal what factors are still galvanizing them to take the plunge.

Crypto CEO pleads guilty in $21 million fraud scheme - The CEO of Titanium Blockchain Infrastructure Services Inc. (TBIS) has pleaded guilty to involvement in a $21 million cryptocurrency fraud scheme, according to the Department of Justice (DOJ). In a news release on Monday, the DOJ said the CEO, Michael Alan Stollery, pleaded guilty to one count of securities fraud. According to court documents, Stollery touted his crypto firm as a cryptocurrency investment opportunity, urging investors to purchase BARs, TBIS’s type of coin token service, through a series of false statements. Justice said Stollery did not register his company’s initial coin offering to the Securities and Exchange Commission and did not have a valid exemption. Stollery also told authorities that he falsified his company’s white papers, which give investors an explanation of the cryptocurrency investment offering and the purpose and technology behind it. Justice also said that Stollery posted fake client testimonials on his company website and falsely claimed that he had a good relationship with the Federal Reserve and a dozen of prominent companies.It said he had admitted commingling money from investors with personal funds that were used for reasons unrelated to his company, including credit card payments and the payment of bills for his condominium in Hawaii.

The missing founders of bankrupt crypto fund Three Arrows are reportedly setting up shop in Dubai, and describe the high-profile collapse of the firm as 'regrettable' | Business Insider Africa -The founders of Three Arrows Capital, the defunct cryptocurrency hedge fund that filed for bankruptcy this month, are reportedly on their way to Dubai after liquidators said they'd been unable to locate them during bankruptcy proceedings. In an interview with Bloombergg, the pair described the stunning collapse of the firm "regrettable".Kyle Davies and Zhu Su were in the spotlight this month after liquidators said they had apparently abandoned their Singapore office and were not giving "meaningful cooperation" in bankruptcy proceedings. The founders did not show up to an emergency court meeting and were reportedly unresponsive in a scheduled Zoom call.But the pair finally reappeared, and a lawyer representing the two disclosed that the founders were currently en-route to the United Arab Emirates, Bloomberg reported. Davies and Su have previously expressed plans of relaunching their business in Dubai, due to crypto's popularity in the area and the relaxed regulation compared to Singapore."The whole situation is regrettable," Davies said in the interview with Bloomberg, while the two acknowledged that heavy use of leverage and the firm's proximity to the bankrupt crypto firm Terra led to their downfall.The company currently owes $2.8 billion to various creditors and investors, according to a court document made public on Monday, and the firm already defaulted on a $670 million loan from Voyager Digital. Those losses led to subsequent bankruptcies of Voyager and other firms exposed to the hedge fund.But the two founders dodged questions on the impact their firm has had on the wider space, the report said, with Davies and Su focusing instead on the fact that "they suffered deep losses" themselves.Su said they'd been on the receiving end of death threats since the firm's troubles were made public. He also brushed off an accusation by a creditor in court documents that he and Davies used $50 million of company assets as down payment for a luxury yacht, arguing that the yacht was purchased over a year ago and was fully transparent in the company's records."This is kind of smearing of us, I feel, is just a classic playbook of, you know, when this stuff happens, when funds blow up, then you know, these are the kind of headlines that people like to play," Su said to Bloomberg.Although an official with the DFSA, Dubai's financial regulator, said that Three Arrows had not gotten approval to operate in Dubai as of June, Su explained the two were visiting to "assess whether we move there as originally planned or if the future holds something different for us." "We feel that it's just the interest for everyone if we can be physically secured and keep a low profile," he added.

Fed, FDIC order Voyager to take down ‘false and misleading’ claims of deposit insurance — The Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. and Federal Reserve have told the crypto firm Voyager Digital to immediately cease and desist from making misleading statements about the availability of deposit insurance. Voyager’s bankruptcy earlier this month sent some customers scrambling to understand what would happen to their noncryptocurrency deposits held with the company. USD deposits at Voyager were held at Metropolitan Commercial Bank, which means that deposits were not insured against the failure of Voyager itself, despite what the regulators say was misleading marketing. These kinds of arrangements and how they’re portrayed to customers will likely be agrowing issue for regulators amid the proliferation of crypto companies and growing market turbulence around digital assets. In a letter to the company, the FDIC and the Fed demanded that Voyager take down any misleading statements related to FDIC insurance and take immediate corrective action to address “false” statements. “These representations are false and misleading and, based on the information we have to date, it appears that the representations likely misled and were relied upon by customers who placed their funds with Voyager and do not have immediate access to their funds,” the agencies said. The letter requires that Voyager remove any statements that suggest “expressly or implicitly” that Voyager is insured by the FDIC, that those who invested with Voyager would receive FDIC insurance without reference to the Metropolitan Commercial Bank account or that the FDIC would insure against the failure of Voyager, not the bank. The letter also tells Voyager to write to the FDIC and the Fed detailing the efforts that the company took to comply with the agencies’ request within two days. If Voyager believes that its representations of deposit insurance are accurate, the letter says, it should write to the agencies with information and documentation that support their accuracy.

FDIC warns banks of risks posed by crypto partners — The Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. is warning banks about the dangers posed by crypto-company partners that overstate the protections afforded by deposit insurance. The FDIC issued an advisory Friday that it’s “concerned about the risks of consumer confusion or harm” arising from digital assets that are offered in connection with an insured depository institution. It came a day after the FDIC and the Federal Reserve issued a cease-and-desist order to Voyager Digital, a crypto firm that went bankrupt in July, to stop any marketing or promotions that suggested FDIC insurance applies to cryptocurrency holdings.Concerns about bank-crypto partnerships, especially how those partnerships are marketed and the extent of deposit insurance coverage, are gaining traction at the FDIC. The advisory underlines that those concerns extend beyond the Voyager case. “Risks are elevated when a nonbank entity offers crypto assets to the nonbank’s customers, while also offering an insured bank’s deposit products,” the agency said in its advisory. Not only did the FDIC warn about risks to consumers, but it told banks that these partnerships could put them in a vulnerable position, too. “In addition to potential consumer harm, customer confusion can lead to legal risks for banks if a crypto company, or other third-party partner of an insured bank with whom they are dealing, makes misrepresentations about the nature and scope of deposit insurance,” the FDIC said in the advisory. “Moreover, misrepresentations and customer confusion could cause concerned consumers with insured-bank relationships to move funds, which could result in liquidity risk to banks and in turn could potentially result in earnings and capital risks,” the agency said. The advisory lays out banks’ responsibility when partnering with crypto companies. It says that insured banks “need to be aware of how FDIC insurance operates and need to assess, manage and control risks arising from all third-party relationships, including those with crypto companies.” It says that banks should confirm and monitor that crypto companies don’t misrepresent the availability of deposit insurance.

Would be a Hoot If Regulators Cracked Down on Companies BEFORE They Freeze Customer Deposits & Cryptos and File for Bankruptcy – Wolf Richter - This evening, the Federal Reserve Board and the FDIC, as banking regulators, sent out a joint press release, advising the world that they sent a joint letter to Voyager Digital today, in which they demand that Voyager “cease and desist from making false and misleading statements regarding its FDIC deposit insurance status.” Voyager Digital is or was a crypto platform, crypto lender, and crypto broker that lured customers into depositing their crypto and fiat there, and then on July 1 suspended all withdrawals and trading, and then on July 6 filed for bankruptcy, and whoever had any money, fiat, or crypto, or whatever on the platform, is now an unsecured creditor in a bankruptcy case, and they have no idea if they will ever get any of their money, fiat, or crypto back. Voyager is part of the now collapsing Decentralized Finance (DeFi) creature that was supposed to supersede FDIC-member banks.The Federal Reserve and the FDIC today said that these false and misleading representations about FDIC insurance by Voyager “likely misled and were relied upon by customers who placed their funds with Voyager.”“Voyager and certain officers and employees” made representations on its website, mobile app, and social media, “stating or suggesting that”:

• Voyager itself is FDIC-insured;
• Customers who deposited their money or crypto or whatever at Voyager would receive FDIC insurance coverage for all their funds.
• The FDIC would insure customers against the failure of Voyager itself.

The folks that believed those representations of FDIC insurance and were induced by them to send their cryptos and fiat or whatever to Voyager were the same folks who believed and were induced by Voyager’s promise that it would pay interest rates of up to 12% on its yield products. The whole DeFi segment relied on believe. You had to believe in it.The regulators pointed out:“Voyager maintains a deposit account for the benefit of its customers at Metropolitan Commercial Bank, which is supervised by the Board.“Voyager is not itself insured by the FDIC, though, and so customers who invested through its cryptocurrency platform would not receive insurance coverage in the event of Voyager’s failure.”OK, no FDIC insurance at Voyager, regardless of what Voyager might have said about that. We get that.And now the big iron-fisted brutal regulatory crackdown, after – I mean likeweeks after – everyone got cleaned out and it’s way too late for anything: “We hereby demand that Voyager cease and desist, and take immediate corrective action to address these false and misleading statements,” the regulators said.

 Senate Banking Committee Will Hear Today About Getting “Pig Butchered” and an Explosion in Crypto Con Men Preying on the Unwary -By Pam and Russ Martens - The Senate Banking Committee will hear today from two witnesses at its hearing titled: “Protecting Investors and Savers: Understanding Scams and Risks in Crypto and Securities Markets.” On tap will be Melanie Senter Lubin, the Commissioner of the Maryland Securities Division, who also serves as President of the North American Securities Administrators Association (NASAA), a group that represents state and provincial securities regulators in the United States, Canada and Mexico. Also giving testimony will be Gerri Walsh, the President of FINRA Investor Education Foundation and Senior Vice President of FINRA Investor Education. FINRA is the self-regulatory body that oversees Wall Street’s broker dealers and licensed traders. It also runs the discredited private justice system for Wall Street firms called mandatory arbitration. In the written testimony that Lubin provided to the Senate Banking Committee, she reveals that surveys conducted by NASAA for the past three years (2019 through 2021) showed that respondents viewed “investments tied to digital assets” as a top threat to investors. Lubin writes: “For several reasons, I expect ‘investments tied to digital assets’ will be a top threat again when we publish the survey results for 2022. To begin with, in 2022, more digital asset companies enlisted celebrities and sports stars to market their platforms or products. For example, during Super Bowl LVI, an estimated 208 million-plus viewers watched comedy icon Larry David in an FTX commercial and NBA legend LeBron James in a Crypto.com commercial. In addition, they watched a Coinbase ad with a QR code bouncing from corner to corner of the TV screen. When scanned, the code brought viewers to Coinbase’s promotional website, offering a limited-time promotion of $15 worth of free Bitcoin to new sign-ups, along with a $3 million giveaway that customers could enter. These ads all appeared to work. In the case of Coinbase, it saw installs of its app jump 309% week-over-week after the ad aired on Sunday, February 13, 2022, and then climb by another 286% on February 14.“In addition, we have seen several bankruptcies and collapses relating to digital assets. Though the facts are still emerging, it appears the eventual implosion of Terra and the loss of over $50 billion in the values of Terra LUNA and TerraUSD over a three-day period had cascading, interconnected consequences for many market participants. By way of example, in June 2022, a court in the British Virgin Islands ordered Three Arrows Capital (‘3AC’), a Singapore-based hedge fund that once managed as much as $10 billion in assets, into liquidation. Days later, 3AC filed for bankruptcy under Chapter 15 of the U.S. bankruptcy code, which allows a foreign debtor to deal with their U.S. assets. On July 5, Voyager Digital Holdings, Inc. (‘Voyager’), a cryptocurrency brokerage that allowed customers to buy, sell, trade, and store cryptocurrency on a single platform, filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection. At the time of bankruptcy, Voyager had over 3.5 million active users of its mobile application and over $5.9 billion of cryptocurrency assets held. A few days later, another trading platform, Celsius Network (‘Celsius’) declared bankruptcy. Celsius had approximately 1.7 million registered users and approximately 300,000 active users with account balances of more than $100, and approximately $6 billion in assets.”The crypto news from FINRA’s Walsh was no better. Her written testimony included details about a growing scam called “Pig Butchering.” It works like this according to Walsh:“In these scams, victims are lured into making investments, often in cryptocurrency or in microcap investments, through the guise of romance. These scams are typically initiated on social media, dating apps, or through private messaging apps where the scammer forms a friendship or romance with the intended target and convinces the target to invest — for instance, on a crypto platform affiliated in some way with the scammer or in small cap stocks being manipulated in a pump and dump scheme. Ultimately, the individual is victimized when the crypto wallet is stolen by the scammer, or the investments fall in value due to the manipulation.”

House committee scuttles plans to take up stablecoin bill this week — Lawmakers on the House Financial Services Committee scuttled plans to hold a vote on legislation this week that could have imposed federal regulations on the stablecoin sector for the first time, pushing the effort to September. Negotiations over a new stablecoin regime between the two wings of the House Financial Service Committee, led by Democratic Chair Maxine Waters of California and ranking Republican Patrick McHenry of North Carolina, had been strained heading into the weekend and the bill ultimately lacked enough support to warrant a markup vote later this week, according to two sources following the process. In broad strokes, the draft legislation would have introduced strong, one-to-one dollar reserve requirements, a new licensing regime, and anti-money-laundering requirements for “payment stablecoins,” a type of cryptocurrency designed to maintain a steady value and be used in transactions rather than fluctuate as an investment. The committee has not yet released legislative text, but one source said a discussion draft could begin to circulate as soon as this week. Regulators have been saying for months that new legislation would be essential in order to set uniform standards for stablecoins, particularly in the wake of a broader downturn in the cryptocurrency market. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said during congressional testimony in May that it would be “highly appropriate” for Congress to pass legislation dealing with stablecoins this year. Nellie Liang, Treasury under secretary for domestic finance, said last week that the lack of a single payments regulator makes it challenging for the administration to address stablecoin rules on its own. Before the markup vote was punted to September — following Congress’s summer recess in August — the draft legislation under discussion would have narrowed the universe of business entities that could legally issue stablecoins to federally regulated depositories as well as nonbanks that were licensed and supervised by the Federal Reserve. Stablecoin issuers would have been prohibited from accessing federal deposit insurance coverage and from making loans.

Shhh! Don’t Tell the Public that their Investor Advocate at the SEC Has Gone Poof, Along with His Most Recent Reports - By Pam and Russ Martens: July 25, 2022 ~ His name is Rick Fleming and there is a very good chance that you’ve never heard of him. Now, there’s a very good chance that you’ll never see the reports that he meticulously compiled twice a year over the past eight years that he served in the role of Investor Advocate on behalf of retail investors at the Securities and Exchange Commission. If you click on this SEC link where his reports are supposed to be housed, you’ll find that the majority of his reports since 2019 result in an “Oops! Page Not Found” message.The role of Investor Advocate at the SEC was created under the Dodd-Frank financial reform legislation of 2010 following the greatest financial collapse since the Great Depression, which resulted from unparalleled corruption on Wall Street and inept federal oversight.The Dodd-Frank legislation clearly intended for the Investor Advocate to be immediately appointed by the Chair of the SEC in 2010 because the legislation calls for the Investor Advocate to file his report on priorities “Not later than June 30 of each year after 2010″ and the annual report of his office’s activities for the prior year “not later than December 31 of each year after 2010.” But just as President Obama never got around to hiring the Dodd-Frank mandated Vice Chair for Supervision at the Federal Reserve throughout his time as President, Obama’s SEC Chairs did not get around to appointing an SEC Investor Advocate until four years after Dodd-Frank was signed into law.Fleming was appointed by SEC Chair Mary Jo White and assumed the role as Investor Advocate on February 24, 2014. White had served as defense counsel to some of the largest firms on Wall Street as a partner at Debevoise & Plimpton. Between herself and her husband, John White, a law partner at Cravath, Swaine & Moore, they had represented most of the major trading houses on Wall Street. Mary Jo White signed an ethics disclosure letter advising that she would “retire” from her position representing Wall Street banks at the law firm Debevoise & Plimpton upon confirmation as SEC Chair. Instead, she returned to Devevoise & Plimpton after her stint as SEC Chair was over. The Dodd-Frank legislation called for the SEC Chair to consult with fellow Commissioners on the SEC in making the appointment of the Investor Advocate. That likely resulted in the appointment of the highly-credentialed Fleming, who had spent fifteen years as a state securities regulator, including more than a decade as General Counsel for the Office of the Kansas Securities Commissioner. Fleming had moved to Washington, D.C. in 2011 to become the Deputy General Counsel for the North American Securities Administrators Association (NASAA), the organization of state securities regulators, a well-respected group.After surviving the multitude of purges throughout the Federal government under the four years of Donald Trump’s administration, why has Fleming left now? His departure was announced on May 27 by the SEC and his last day was July 1, one day after his June 30 report on his priorities for 2023 was due to Congress.To answer why Fleming has gone poof from the SEC, we felt it would be necessary to get our hands on the Investor Advocate’s most recent reports to Congress, which we were able to do. The annual report for 2021 carries this breathtaking revelation:“Approximately 85 percent of SPACs have restated their financial statements, which may indicate that these companies were not prepared to handle the heightened regulatory responsibilities of public companies.”SPACs (Special Purpose Acquisition Companies) are companies that tap the public markets with an IPO when they have no commercial operations at all and simply plan to eventually acquire an existing company. SPACs are also known as “blank check” companies. According to FactSet, SPACs accounted for half of all IPOs in 2020, the last year of the Trump administration. (See our report: SEC Chair Jay Clayton Left Markets in the Biggest Mess Since 1929.) Fleming’s report for 2021 also shares this:“Similarly, we are tracking the accumulation of ‘goodwill’ on balance sheets—a staggering $3.5 trillion as of 2020 — in light of the recent flurry of deal activity taking place at elevated prices.” The real problem for Fleming, however, is likely contained in the priorities report he wrote for 2023. (We obtained that report in a Google cache.) One of those priorities was “ESG Disclosures” for public companies as well as ESG disclosures for investment advisors and investment companies. ESG stands for “Environmental, Social, and Governance,” and quashing those disclosures has become a battleground for fossil fuel interests and the right-wing Republicans that sit on the Senate Banking Committee – whose political campaigns are heavily funded by fossil fuels and related interests.

Hyundai fined $19 million for submitting false consumer payment histories -The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau fined Hyundai’s U.S. financing arm $19.2 million after an investigation found that the company submitted false credit information on millions of accounts. For more than four years, Hyundai Capital America knowingly presented credit bureaus with “inaccurate account information” about the payment history of consumer auto loans and leases, according to a statement released on Tuesday by the CFPB. The CFPB said it found 8.7 million instances of inaccurate information that affected about 2.2 million consumer loans from January 2016 to March 2020. The issue stemmed from HCA’s use of “manual and outdated systems, processes and procedures.” In many cases, the auto lender reported that customers were more than 30 days late on payments when that wasn’t the case, the agency said. The company violated a provision of the Fair Credit Reporting Act by not updating credit information “that it determined was not complete or accurate,” according to the CFPB statement. Reporting this information “tarnished credit reports for millions of borrowers,” CFPB Director Rohit Chopra said in the statement. “Loan servicers must be complete and accurate when furnishing information that affects a borrower’s credit report,” he added. HCA was ordered to pay $13.2 million to current and former customers as well as $6 million to the CFPB, according to the agency’s statement. This is the largest Fair Credit Reporting Act case the agency has taken against an auto servicer, the bureau said. The company did not admit to any wrongdoing but has launched an “end-to-end review” of credit reporting practices, an HCA spokesperson said in an emailed statement.

 Trident Mortgage slapped with $24.4 million redlining fine -Trident Mortgage, a now-defunct lender owned by Berkshire Hathaway, has agreed to pay $24.4 million for engaging in redlining and discriminating against minorities in the greater Philadelphia metro area, federal and state regulators said Wednesday. The Justice Department, Consumer Financial Protection Bureau and three state attorneys general announced at a news conference that Trident discouraged prospective minority applicants from applying for home loans in Philadelphia, Camden, New Jersey, and Wilmington, Delaware. Trident was a major mortgage lender in Philadelphia, operating 53 loan offices in the metro area. But only two loan officers were based in minority neighborhoods, which represented roughly 50% of the population, officials said. The Justice Department and CFPB also said that Trident’s loan officers and other employees distributed and received work emails containing racial slurs and pejorative language. The CFPB said Trident conducted 15 direct mail marketing campaigns from 2015 to 2018 in which all the people “appeared to be white,” and the company overwhelmingly sent house fliers and online ads of home listings to majority-white neighborhoods. “This was systemic racism, pure and simple,” Pennsylvania Attorney General Josh Shapiro, who is running for governor, said at a news conference. Trident “denied mortgage access, lending and opportunities to build wealth,” he added.

Democrats revive bill to extend anti-discrimination law to bank customers of color — More than a dozen Senate Democrats revived a push on Tuesday to extend civil rights-style protections for consumers seeking financial services. The bill, the Fair Access to Financial Services Act, was first introduced in 2020 when the Senate was under Republican control. If passed, it would entitle “all persons” to the “full and equal enjoyment of the goods, services, facilities, privileges, and accommodations of any financial institution,” according to the legislation. The text of the resurrected bill pulls from the language of the past civil rights laws. It states that such protections would ban discrimination from financial services on the basis of “race, color, religion, national origin, and sex (including sexual orientation and gender identity).” “Too many Black and brown Americans experience racial profiling and unequal treatment when trying to access services at banks and other financial institutions, and don’t have anywhere to turn to hold financial institutions accountable,” Brown said in a press release Tuesday. “Our legislation explicitly outlaws discrimination in our nation’s financial system so that everyone can access financial services free from harassment and abuse.”Along with Brown, the legislation was co-sponsored by Democratic Sens. Raphael Warnock of Georgia, Bob Menendez of New Jersey, Catherine Cortez Masto of Nevada, Cory Booker of New Jersey, Tina Smith of Minnesota, Chris Van Hollen of Maryland, Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts, Bernie Sanders of Vermont, Kirsten Gillibrand of New York, Alex Padilla of California, Tammy Duckworth of Illinois, Jeff Merkley of Oregon, Ed Markey of Massachusetts, Tammy Baldwin of Wisconsin, Sheldon Whitehouse of Rhode Island and Dianne Feinstein of California. The original Civil Rights Act of 1964 banned discrimination from several public-facing institutions — namely hotels and restaurants — but did not extend its protections to banks and other financial institutions. The second recent push for the Fair Access to Financial Services Act comes in the wake of several high-profile incidents of Black bank customers being mistreated by financial institutions, including an infamous case in March when Ryan Coogler, director of the acclaimed 2018 Marvel movie "Black Panther," was wrongfully accused of trying to rob a Bank of America branch in March after he attempted to withdraw money from his own account.

Freddie Mac: Mortgage Serious Delinquency Rate decreased in June -Freddie Mac reported that the Single-Family serious delinquency rate in June was 0.76%, down from 0.80% May. Freddie's rate is down year-over-year from 1.86% in June 2021. Freddie's serious delinquency rate peaked in February 2010 at 4.20% following the housing bubble and peaked at 3.17% in August 2020 during the pandemic. These are mortgage loans that are "three monthly payments or more past due or in foreclosure". Mortgages in forbearance are being counted as delinquent in this monthly report but are not reported to the credit bureaus.This is very different from the increase in delinquencies following the housing bubble. Lending standards have been fairly solid over the last decade, and most of these homeowners have equity in their homes - and they will be able to restructure their loans once (if) they are employed. The serious delinquency rate was at 0.60% just prior to the pandemic - almost back.

Fannie Mae: Mortgage Serious Delinquency Rate Decreased in June - Fannie Mae reported that the Single-Family Serious Delinquency decreased to 0.81% in June from 0.87% in May. The serious delinquency rate is down from 2.08% in June 2021. This is almost back to pre-pandemic levels.These are mortgage loans that are "three monthly payments or more past due or in foreclosure". The Fannie Mae serious delinquency rate peaked in February 2010 at 5.59% following the housing bubble and peaked at 3.32% in August 2020 during the pandemic.By vintage, for loans made in 2004 or earlier (1% of portfolio), 2.75% are seriously delinquent (down from 2.86% in May). For loans made in 2005 through 2008 (1% of portfolio), 4.45% are seriously delinquent (down from 4.67%), For recent loans, originated in 2009 through 2021 (97% of portfolio), 0.63% are seriously delinquent (down from 0.69%). So, Fannie is still working through a few poor performing loans from the bubble years.Mortgages in forbearance are counted as delinquent in this monthly report, but they will not be reported to the credit bureaus.The pandemic related increase in delinquencies was very different from the increase in delinquencies following the housing bubble. Lending standards had been fairly solid over the previous decade, and most of these homeowners had equity in their homes - and the vast majority of these homeowners have been able to restructure their loans once they were employed.

Mortgage delinquencies rose in June: Black Knight - Delinquencies reversed course in June after three consecutive months of drops to record lows, according to Black Knight, but experts there warned not to make too much of the recent change. The overall delinquency rate, excluding foreclosures, rose 9 basis points from May to 2.84%, according to Black Knight’s First Look report. Both short- and long-term delinquencies increased during the month, with the increase in the latter being the first seen in almost two years. During June, 1.51 million mortgages had payments that were one-month late, 599,000 were 90 days or more past due. Short-term delinquencies were up by around 50,000 and payments that were late for a longer period of time registered an increase of 4,000. While the increases could be interpreted as a sign that remaining pandemic relief may be doing less to offset consumer stress from inflation and higher rates, Andy Walden, vice president of research and strategy at Black Knight, warned that it could prove to be an aberration. “While we did see a pullback in loans curing from serious delinquency in June, we expect the overall trend of improvement of the last 21 months is likely to continue in the coming months,” he said in an email. Foreclosure activity, which has been rebounding from previous pandemic-related constraints, also increased in June, with 23,800 starts during the month, representing an increase of 27% on a consecutive month basis and 441% from a year earlier. The general trend toward higher rates reduced both refinance and purchase mortgage activity in the past month, causing prepayment rates to drop by 7% on a consecutive-month basis and 64% from a year ago. The prepayment rate in June was 0.81%, according to Black Knight. Some stark differences persist by state when it comes to loan performance. While just 1.66% of mortgages in Idaho were delinquent or in foreclosure last month, in Mississippi the noncurrent percentage was 6.41%. In most states the non-current percentage has been dropping, but the range of improvement, however, has varied widely. In Hawaii the noncurrent percentage dropped by almost 22% over the past six months, but in one state, North Dakota, it rose 1.91%. Black Knight uses extrapolation in calculating its statistics. It also rounds all data points except foreclosure starts to the nearest thousand. The company rounds foreclosure starts to the nearest hundred.

Black Knight: Mortgage Delinquency Rate increased in June; Remains Well below Pre-Pandemic Levels- From Black Knight: Black Knight’s First Look: Mortgage Delinquencies and Foreclosure Starts Edge Higher in June but Remain Well Below Pre-Pandemic Levels

• The national delinquency rate rose nine basis points from May to reach 2.84% after hitting consecutive record lows in each of the prior three months
• Increases were broad-based – the number of borrowers a single payment past due rose 5%, while 90-day delinquencies broke a 21-month streak of improvement with a modest 1% uptick from the prior month
• Foreclosure starts were also up 27% in June – still 40% below pre-pandemic levels – marking a 441% year-over-year increase, a significant rise from pandemic-driven lows
• Starts also represented the highest share (4%) of serious delinquencies since March 2020, but less than half the rate in the years leading up to the pandemic
• Active foreclosure inventory rose by 16K in the month as volumes continue to slowly come off the record lows brought on by widespread moratoriums and forbearance protections in 2020/21
• Prepayment activity was down another 7% in June with prepays now down by 64% from the same time last year as rising rates put downward pressure on both purchase and refinance lending

According to Black Knight's First Look report, the percent of loans delinquent increased 3.3% in June compared to May and decreased 35% year-over-year.
Black Knight reported the U.S. mortgage delinquency rate (loans 30 or more days past due, but not in foreclosure) was 2.84% in June, up from 2.75% in May. The percent of loans in the foreclosure process increased in June to 0.53%, from 0.50% in May. This is increasing from very low levels due to the foreclosure moratoriums.
The number of delinquent properties, but not in foreclosure, is down 809,000 properties year-over-year, and the number of properties in the foreclosure process is up 45,000 properties year-over-year.

30-year fixed rate falls 24 basis points --Volatility has been the key characteristic of mortgage rates this summer, and true to form, the 30-year average made another large swing over the past seven days.The 30-year fixed-rate dipped 24 basis points to average 5.3% for the weekly period ending July 28, according to Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey. One week ago, the average stood at 5.54%, while in the same time frame of 2021, it came in at 2.8%.Markets had already largely priced in an expected increase in the federal funds rate this week, so the central bank announcement of a 75-basis-point hike had less influence on movement than what might normally be expected. “We believe the residential mortgage market will take this increase in stride,” “There are no surprises here.” Instead, investors seemed focused on what might come ahead, according to Paul Thomas, vice president of capital markets at Zillow, as the Federal Reserve tries to find the right formula that quells inflation without causing a severe slowdown of economic growth. Fed Chair Jerome Powell gave limited guidance about what the rest of the year might hold, saying it would depend on the data. “​​While labor markets are still tight and inflation readings high, investors are pricing more risk of recession into medium- to long-term interest rates, believing the Fed will have to pivot away from further rate hikes in the future,” The latest release of gross domestic product numbers appears set to throw more confusion in the mix. The Department of Commerce reported the U.S. economy contracted for the second consecutive quarter, shrinking 0.9% between April and June, after consensus estimates pointed to slight growth.

MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest Weekly Survey From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey - Mortgage applications decreased 1.8 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending July 22, 2022.... The Refinance Index decreased 4 percent from the previous week and was 83 percent lower than the same week one year ago. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 1 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index decreased 0.4 percent compared with the previous week and was 18 percent lower than the same week one year ago.“Mortgage applications declined for the fourth consecutive week to the lowest level of activity since February 2000. Increased economic uncertainty and prevalent affordability challenges are dissuading households from entering the market, leading to declining purchase activity that is close to lows last seen at the onset of the pandemic,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s Associate Vice President of Economic and Industry Forecasting. “Weakening purchase applications trends in recent months have been consistent with data showing a slowdown in sales for newly constructed homes and existing homes. A potential silver lining for the housing market is that stabilizing mortgage rates and increases in for-sale inventory may bring some buyers back to the market during the second half of the year.”Added Kan, “With mortgage rates remaining well over 5 percent, refinance applications are now 83 percent below last year’s pace.”...The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($647,200 or less) decreased to 5.74 percent from 5.82 percent, with points decreasing to 0.61 from 0.65 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value ratio (LTV) loans. The first graph shows the refinance index since 1990. With higher mortgage rates, the refinance index has declined sharply over the last several months.The refinance index is at the lowest level since the year 2000.The second graph shows the MBA mortgage purchase index. According to the MBA, purchase activity is down 18% year-over-year unadjusted.The purchase index is now only 13% above the pandemic low.

Housing Inventory July 25th Update: Up 30.5% Year-over-year - Inventory is increasing rapidly. Inventory bottomed seasonally at the beginning of March 2022 and is now up 118% since then. More than double! Altos reports inventory is up 30.5% year-over-year and is now 20.2% above the peak last year. This inventory graph is courtesy of Altos Research. As of July 22nd, inventory was at 526 thousand (7-day average), compared to 509 thousand the prior week. Inventory was up 3.3% from the previous week. Inventory is increasing much faster than normal for this time of year (both in percentage terms and in total inventory added).Inventory is still historically low. Compared to the same week in 2021, inventory is up 30.5% from 403 thousand, however compared to the same week in 2020 inventory is down 17.9% from 640 thousand. Compared to 3 years ago, inventory is down 45.8% from 969 thousand.Here are the inventory milestones I’m watching for with the Altos data:
1. The seasonal bottom (happened on March 4th for Altos) ✅
2. Inventory up year-over-year (happened on May 13th for Altos) ✅
3. Inventory up compared to two years ago (currently down 17.9% according to Altos)
4. Inventory up compared to 2019 (currently down 45.8%).
Here is a graph of the inventory change vs 2021, 2020 (milestone 3 above) and 2019 (milestone 4).The blue line is the year-over-year data, the red line is compared to two years ago, and dashed purple is compared to 2019.Two years ago (in 2020) inventory was declining all year, so the two-year comparison will get easier all year. Based on the recent increases in inventory, my current estimate is inventory will be up compared to 2020 in late August of this year (next month), and back to 2019 levels at the beginning of 2023.Mike Simonsen discusses this data regularly on Youtube.

FHFA House Price Index: Up 1.4% in May - The Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) has released its U.S. House Price Index (HPI) for May. Here is the opening of the press release: House prices rose nationwide in May, up 1.4 percent from the previous month, according to the latest Federal Housing Finance Agency House Price Index (FHFA HPI®). House prices rose 18.3 percent from May 2021 to May 2022. The previously reported 1.6 percent price change for April 2022 was revised downward to 1.5 percent..For the nine census divisions, seasonally adjusted monthly house price changes from April 2022 to May 2022 ranged from +0.2 percent in the Pacific division to +2.0 percent in the New England division. The 12-month changes were all positive, ranging from +13.9 percent in the Middle Atlantic division to +23.8 percent in the South Atlantic division.“House prices continued to rise in May, but at a slower pace” said Will Doerner, Ph.D., Supervisory Economist in FHFA’s Division of Research and Statistics. “Since peaking in February, price appreciation has moderated slightly. Price growth continues to remain above historical levels, supported by the low inventory of properties for sale.” The chart below illustrates the monthly HPI series, which is not adjusted for inflation, along with a real (inflation-adjusted) series using the Consumer Price Index: All Items Less Shelter.

Case-Shiller: National House Price Index increased 19.7% year-over-year in May --S&P/Case-Shiller released the monthly Home Price Indices for May ("May" is a 3-month average of March, April and May prices). This release includes prices for 20 individual cities, two composite indices (for 10 cities and 20 cities) and the monthly National index. From S&P: S&P Corelogic Case-Shiller Index Reports Annual Home Price Gain Of 19.7% In May: The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, covering all nine U.S. census divisions, reported a 19.7% annual gain in May, down from 20.6% in the previous month. The 10-City Composite annual increase came in at 19.0%, down from 19.6% in the previous month. The 20-City Composite posted a 20.5% year-over-year gain, down from 21.2% in the previous month.Tampa, Miami, and Dallas reported the highest year-over-year gains among the 20 cities in May. Tampa led the way with a 36.1% year-over-year price increase, followed by Miami with a 34.0% increase, and Dallas with a 30.8% increase. Four of the 20 cities reported higher price increases in the year ending May 2022 versus the year ending April 2022....Before seasonal adjustment, the U.S. National Index posted a 1.5% month-over-month increase in May, while the 10-City and 20-City Composites posted increases of 1.4% and 1.5%, respectively.After seasonal adjustment, the U.S. National Index posted a month-over-month increase of 1.0%, and the 10-City and 20-City Composites both posted increases of 1.3%.In May, all 20 cities reported increases before and after seasonal adjustments.. “The National Composite Index rose by 19.7% for the 12 months ended May, down from April’s 20.6% year-over-year gain. Despite this deceleration, growth rates are still extremely robust, with all three composites at or above the 98th percentile historicallyThe first graph shows the nominal seasonally adjusted Composite 10, Composite 20 and National indices (the Composite 20 was started in January 2000).The Composite 10 index is up 1.3% in May (SA).The Composite 20 index is up 1.3% (SA) in May. The National index is 60% above the bubble peak (SA), and up 1.0% (SA) in May. The National index is up 119% from the post-bubble low set in February 2012 (SA).

The Most Splendid Housing Bubbles in America, July Update: Whittling Down the Crazy Price Spikes - Signs are now everywhere that the crazy housing market is turning the corner. Earlier today the Census Bureau reported some chilling data on new house sales and prices, which plunged in June, as inventory surged to the highest since 2008. The National Association of Realtors reported last week that existing home sales in June also plunged, even as inventories jumped. The trio of national housing reports was rounded out today by the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Home Price Index. All real estate indices lag reality on the ground. But the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Index lags the most, though it is perhaps the most reliable index for actual changes in home prices.Today’s release of the Case-Shiller Index was for “May,” which consists of the three-month average of closed home sales that were entered into public records in March, April, and May, of deals that were made a few weeks earlier, roughly in February, March, and April.In early February, mortgage rates were 3.5%. By mid-April, they pierced the 5% mark – roughly the range that applied to the deals in today’s “May” time-frame of the Case-Shiller Home Price Index (green box):But the first signs of a slowdown are creeping into today’s S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Home Price Index, with declining month-to-month price gains: In “May” (average of March, April, and May), the index gained 1.5% from “April,” down from the gains of 2.3% and 2.6% in the prior two months.In some markets, month-to-month price gains were still huge. In others, they were much smaller: +0.5% in Seattle, +0.6% in San Diego, +0.9% in San Francisco house prices, with condo prices being flat.The year-over-year gain of the National Case-Shiller Index slowed to 19.7%, after having been above 20% in the prior three months.San Diego metro: Prices of single-family houses rose by 0.6% in “May” from the prior month, which was just a pale imitation of the 4.5% jump in “February” and the 3.7% jump in “March.” In the chart, you can barely see today’s tiny uptick compared to the spikes in prior months.This 0.6% gain whittled down the year-over-year gain to 25.6%, which is still ridiculous, but down from +29% a few months earlier.The index value of 428 for San Diego means that home prices shot up by 328% since January 2000, when the index was set at 100, despite the plunge in the middle (CPI inflation amounted to 75% over the same period). This crowns San Diego the most splendid housing bubble on this list, followed by Los Angeles and Seattle. Los Angeles metro: +1.1% in May from April, still huge, but down from jumps of over 3% in February and March. This whittled the year-over-year spike down to +21.7%.The index value of 423 indicates that house prices surged by 323% since January 2000, making the Los Angeles metro the second most splendid housing bubble on this list:

New Home Sales Decrease Sharply to 590,000 Annual Rate in June - The Census Bureau reports New Home Sales in June were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 590 thousand.The previous three months were revised down significantly.Sales of new single‐family houses in June 2022 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 590,000, according to estimates released jointly today by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. This is 8.1 percent below the revised May rate of 642,000 and is 17.4 percent below the June 2021 estimate of 714,000.The first graph shows New Home Sales vs. recessions since 1963. The dashed line is the current sales rate.New home sales are now below pre-pandemic levels.The second graph shows New Home Months of Supply.The months of supply decreased in June to 9.3 months from 8.4 months in May.The all-time record high was 12.1 months of supply in January 2009. The all-time record low was 3.5 months, most recently in October 2020.This is well above the top of the normal range (about 4 to 6 months of supply is normal)."The seasonally‐adjusted estimate of new houses for sale at the end of June was 457,000. This represents a supply of 9.3 months at the current sales rate."The last graph shows sales NSA (monthly sales, not seasonally adjusted annual rate).In June 2022 (red column), 49 thousand new homes were sold (NSA). Last year, 61 thousand homes were sold in June.The all-time high for June was 115 thousand in 2005, and the all-time low for June was 28 thousand in 2010 and in 2011.This was well below expectations, and sales in the three previous months were revised down significantly.

Prices of New Houses Plunge, Sales Crater to Lockdown Level, Inventories Pile Up to Highest since 2008 - The median price of new single-family houses that were sold in June plunged by 9.5% from May, to $402,400, the lowest since June last year, according to the Census Bureau today. The plunge in June after the drop in May reduced the year-over-year gain to 7.4%, from the 20%+ in the spring.Median prices are noisy with month-to-month moves, and some caution needs to be used here. But this was nevertheless an extraordinary plunge of a magnitude that occurred only three times before in the data going back to 1965: During the second dip of the Double-Dip Recession (Sep 1981), during the Housing Bust (Oct 2010), and in Sep 2014.Clearly, potential buyers are now having second thoughts, given the spike in mortgage rates, and homebuilders are responding to this decline in demand and the surge in cancellations by piling on incentives and cutting prices:The largest homebuilder, D.R. Horton, said in its earnings report last week: “The increase in our cancellation rate in the current quarter primarily reflects the moderation in demand we experienced in June 2022 as mortgage interest rates increased substantially and inflationary pressures remained elevated.Sales drop to level of lockdown April 2020. Sales of new single-family houses dropped by 8.1% from May, to as seasonally adjusted annual rate of 590,000 houses, down by 17.4% from a year ago, and just barely above lockdown April 2020, and beyond that the lowest since late 2018, when mortgage rates had hit the magic number of 5% Similar drops in sales occurred with existing homes where sales plunged 14% in June from a year ago. So that’s previously owned houses, condos, and townhouses. Particularly noteworthy with existing sales was California’s 21% plunge in closed sales and the 40% collapse in pending sales. New house sales plunged in every region compared to June last year, but plunged the most in the Northeast:

• Northeast: -37.9%
• West: -32.9%
• Midwest: -22.1%
• South: -8.7%.

No folks, there is no “housing shortage,” but prices are still way too high.Houses for sale in all stages of construction continued to pile up in an amazing series that began in August 2020 and in June reached 457,000 houses, seasonally adjusted (and 463,000 houses not seasonally adjusted), the highest since May 2008, and up by 113,000 houses, or by 32%, from June last year By region, unsold inventory rose in all regions but spiked the most in the Midwest and the South, in terms of the percent increase year-over-year:

• Midwest: +62%
• South: +33%
• West: +28%
• Northeast: +4%.

Supply of unsold new houses spiked to 9.3 months of sales, same as in May 2010, and both had been the highest since April 2009, during the depth of the housing bust. This is a huge amount of supply:They’re called “holy-moly” because that’s invariably the sound potential homebuyers make when they see the payment for the house they wish to buy at current mortgage rates and still sky-high prices. The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate, according to Freddie Mac’s measure, was 5.54% in the last reporting week and has been above 5% since mid-April. With each increase in mortgage rates, entire layers of potential buyers abandon the market as long as prices remain too high:

Housing Market Collapse ‘Deepening, Fast’: New Home Sales Crater Again As Experts Worry Downturn Could Spark Recession - New home sales unexpectedly plunged much more than economists projected in June, according to data released Tuesday, adding to signs that the housing market is abruptly unraveling pandemic-era gains as experts start to worry the downturn could spill over into the broader economy—potentially even triggering a recession. Amid plunging demand, the median sales price of new homes fell to $402,400 last month from $449,000. About 590,000 new single-family houses were sold last month on a seasonally adjusted annual basis, plunging 8% below the May rate of 642,000 and falling sharply below analyst projections of 660,000, the Census Department reported on Tuesday. Plunging demand has started to hit prices hard: The median sales price of new homes plunged to $402,400 last month from $449,000 in May—the lowest level since June 2021 after a record high $457,000 in April. Meanwhile, the number of new houses for sale jumped by 17,000 to an estimated 457,000—reflecting about eight months of current sales, or the biggest glut since late 2010, notes Pantheon Macro chief economist Ian Shepherdson, blaming the plunging demand for a recent surge in inventories. “The housing slump is deepening, fast,” says Shepherdson, noting new home sales fell at a 61% annualized rate in the second quarter and adding the sustained plunge in mortgage applications over the past few months means the latest reading “will not be the bottom.” Illustrating the housing market’s gloomy outlook, Atlanta home construction company PulteGroup on Tuesday reported new orders in the second quarter fell 23% from last year as higher mortgage rates, reduced affordability and lower consumer confidence contributed to lower demand and resulted in an increased number of previous buyers canceling their contracts. The data comes only a week after the National Association of Home Builders revealed home builder confidence plunged to a two-year low in July as high inflation and supply chain constraints prompted many builders to halt construction on homes. S ​​Home buying demand skyrocketed during the pandemic as interest rates collapsed and an influx of Americans started working from home. However, the Federal Reserve’s interest rate hikes have quickly spurred a reversal since March, and some experts worry about the broader economic implications. In a note to clients last week, Bank of America economist Michael Gapen downgraded his economic forecast as a result of the steeper-than-expected housing market decline, saying gross domestic product likely shrank 1.5% last quarter.

NAR: Pending Home Sales Decreased 8.6% in June - From the NAR: Pending Home Sales Fell 8.6% in June - Pending home sales decreased in June, following a slight increase in May, according to the National Association of REALTORS®. All four major regions posted month-over-month and year-over-year pullbacks, the largest of which occurred in the West. The Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI), a forward-looking indicator of home sales based on contract signings, dipped 8.6% to 91.0 in June. Year-over-year, transactions shrank 20.0%. An index of 100 is equal to the level of contract activity in 2001. "Contract signings to buy a home will keep tumbling down as long as mortgage rates keep climbing, as has happened this year to date," said NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun. "There are indications that mortgage rates may be topping or very close to a cyclical high in July. If so, pending contracts should also begin to stabilize." According to NAR, buying a home in June was about 80% more expensive than in June 2019. Nearly a quarter of buyers who purchased a home three years ago would be unable to do so now because they no longer earn the qualifying income to buy a median-priced home today....The Northeast PHSI slid 6.7% compared to last month to 80.9, down 17.6% from June 2021. The Midwest index dropped 3.8% to 93.7 in June, a 13.4% decline from a year ago. The South PHSI slipped 8.9% to 108.3 in June, a decrease of 19.2% from the previous year. The West index slumped 15.9% in June to 68.7, down 30.9% from June 2021. This was well below expectations for this index. Note: Contract signings usually lead sales by about 45 to 60 days, so this would usually be for closed sales in July and August.

Rent Increases Up Sharply Year-over-year, Pace Continues to Slow -Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Rent Increases Up Sharply Year-over-year, Pace Continues to Slow. A brief excerpt: Here is a graph of the year-over-year (YoY) change for these measures since January 2015. All of these measures are through June 2022 (Apartment List through July 2022).Note that new lease measures (Zillow, Apartment List) dipped early in the pandemic, whereas the BLS measures were steady. Then new leases took off, and the BLS measures are picking up....The Zillow measure is up 14.8% YoY in June, down from 16.0% YoY in May. This is down from a peak of 17.2% YoY in February. The ApartmentList measure is up 12.4% YoY as of July, down from 14.1% in June. This is down from the peak of 18.0% YoY last December.Clearly rents are still increasing, and we should expect this to continue to spill over into measures of inflation in 2022. The Owners’ Equivalent Rent (OER) was up 5.5% YoY in June, from 5.1% YoY in May - and will likely increase further in the coming months. My suspicion is rent increases will slow over the coming months as the pace of household formation slows, and more supply comes on the market.There is much more in the article.

Big Tech & Startups Getting Ready for Reality: Shedding People, Offices, and Warehouses - It’s kind of sobering. Reality has that effect, after a drunken binge. By Wolf Richter. This is the transcript of my podcast recorded last Sunday, So here are a few of the biggest names, but this is now happening all over the place.Amazon is halting construction on five office towers in downtown Bellevue, Washington. In addition, it will not even start construction on a sixth tower in Bellevue.Amazon told GeekWire that it wants to re-evaluate floorplans to see how they would need to change to accommodate remote work and the hybrid model of working from home some days and coming to the office on other days. Meaning that there will be fewer people to spend time in these offices, and it may need less office space, and those offices will need to be different.Amazon, which has about 10,000 corporate and tech workers in Bellevue, said that it still intends to have 25,000 employees in the city. I guess, sometime in the future maybe. To be re-evaluated in due time.In addition, Amazon is halting construction on its office tower in Nashville, Tennessee, where Amazon already has a tower. It told the Nashville Business Journal that it wants to re-evaluate floorplans with an eye on the hybrid model of remote work and office work.Last week, it was reported that Amazon slashed the amount of office space it had planned on leasing at Hudson Yards, in Manhattan. This would be for additional space. It already has been leasing space at Hudson Yards since 2019. In its Q1 earnings report, Amazon disclosed its first loss in many years and its weakest sales growth since dirt was young. During the earnings call, the CFO said that for its consumer business – so that’s the ecommerce side of what Amazon does – there was quote “excess capacity in the network that we need to grow into.” He said that many of the decisions to add capacity were made 18 to 24 months ago. […] Last week it emerged that Facebook’s parent Meta – which shifted to flexible work and allows most of its employees to work from home – cancelled plans to take the additional 300,000 square feet of office space at an office building near Astor Place in Manhattan, where it already occupies space. And it halted plans to build out its new offices at Hudson Yards in order to evaluate what to do with it.CEO Mark Zuckerberg issued a hiring freeze for some roles and warned employees of “serious times” and a big downturn.It seems Meta’s real-estate department only belatedly got the memo, and they kept adding new space during the pandemic, even after the company had switched to permanent remote work, and now they’re scrambling to figure out what to do with all this unused office space that was designed for the company to grow into, but that, it turns out, it will never grow into.Delivery startup Gopuff, which had been on a huge binge of hiring and footprint expansion, is now planning to close 76 warehouses in the US, which represent about 12% of its network, according to a memo to investors, seen by Bloomberg. The memo also said that Gopuff would lay off about 10% of its workforce in the US, or about 1,500 corporate and warehouse employees, after having already laid off 3% of its workforce in March, when it also scuttled its plans for an IPO because the stock market had turned ugly for startup companies, and had already crushed many high-flyer stocks by 80% or 90%.

Hotels: Occupancy Rate Down 6.0% Compared to Same Week in 2019 -- From CoStar: STR: US Weekly Hotel Occupancy Reaches Highest Level Since August 2019 - U.S. hotel performance increased from the previous week, according to STR‘s latest data through July 23.
July 17-23, 2022 (percentage change from comparable week in 2019*):
• Occupancy: 72.8% (-6.0%)
• Average daily rate (ADR): $158.79 (+16.4%)
• Revenue per available room (RevPAR): $115.59 (+9.3%)
*Due to the pandemic impact, STR is measuring recovery against comparable time periods from 2019. The following graph shows the seasonal pattern for the hotel occupancy rate using the four-week average.

Las Vegas June 2022: Visitor Traffic Down 7.8% Compared to 2019 -Note: I like using Las Vegas as a measure of recovery for both leisure (visitors) and business (conventions). From the Las Vegas Visitor Authority: May 2022 Las Vegas Visitor Statistics; Las Vegas saw another strong month of visitation in June as the destination hosted over 3.3M visitors, about 12% ahead of last June but approx. 8% behind June 2019.With room inventory reflecting the net impacts of the openings of the Virgin Hotel Las Vegas and Resorts World since the middle of last year, overall hotel occupancy reached 82.7%, 6.8 pts ahead of last June but down 9.0 pts vs. June 2019. Weekend occupancy welcomed a fourth consecutive month at or above 90% and Midweek occupancy reached 80% for the first time since February 2020 (up 9.1 pts YoY but down 9.7 pts vs. June 2019).ADR approached $157, 22.7% ahead of last June and over 30% above June 2019 while RevPAR neared $130 for the month, +33.7% YoY and +17.5% over June 2019.The first graph shows visitor traffic for 2019 (dark blue), 2020 (light blue), 2021 (yellow) and 2022 (red). Visitor traffic was down 7.8% compared to the same month in 2019. Visitor traffic was up 12% compared to last June. The second graph shows convention traffic. Convention traffic was down 8.7% compared to June 2019. Note: There was almost no convention traffic from April 2020 through May 2021.

U.S. Business Activity Contracts in July, Survey Shows (Reuters) - U.S. business activity contracted for the first time in nearly two years in July as a sharp slowdown in the service sector outweighed continued modest growth in manufacturing, painting a glum picture for an economy stunted by high inflation, rising interest rates and deteriorating consumer confidence. S&P Global said its preliminary - or “flash” - U.S. Composite PMI Output Index had tumbled far more than expected to 47.5 this month from a final reading of 52.3 in June. With a reading below 50 indicating business activity had contracted, it is a development likely to feed into a vocal debate over whether the U.S. economy is back in - or near - a recession after rebounding sharply from the downturn in early 2020 at the start of the COVID-19 pandemic. July’s fall marked the fourth monthly drop in a row and was largely driven by pronounced weakness in the services sector index, which fell to the lowest since May 2020 at 47.0 from 52.7 a month earlier. That was enough to offset relative steadiness in manufacturing, with the group’s factory activity index edging down to 52.3 from 52.7, indicating the sector was still growing but now at its weakest pace since July 2020. Economists polled by Reuters had a median estimate for the services sector index at 52.6, while the manufacturing index was seen coming in at 52.0. “The preliminary PMI data for July point to a worrying deterioration in the economy,” S&P Global Chief Business Economist Chris Williamson said in a statement. “Excluding pandemic lockdown months, output is falling at a rate not seen since 2009 amid the global financial crisis.” S&P Global’s measures of new orders in the manufacturing sector, outstanding business in the services sector and future expectations in both fell to levels not seen since the first year of the pandemic.

Consumer Confidence Falls for Third Consecutive Month -The headline number of 95.7 was a decrease of 2.7 from the final reading of 98.4 for June. The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® decreased in July, following a larger decline in June. The Index now stands at 95.7 (1985=100), down 2.7 points from 98.4 in June. The Present Situation Index—based on consumers’ assessment of current business and labor market conditions—fell to 141.3 from 147.2 last month. The Expectations Index—based on consumers’ short-term outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions—ticked down to 65.3 from 65.8.“Consumer confidence fell for a third consecutive month in July,” said Lynn Franco, Senior Director of Economic Indicators at The Conference Board. “The decrease was driven primarily by a decline in the Present Situation Index—a sign growth has slowed at the start of Q3. The Expectations Index held relatively steady, but remained well below a reading of 80, suggesting recession risks persist. Concerns about inflation—rising gas and food prices, in particular—continued to weigh on consumers.” “As the Fed raises interest rates to rein in inflation, purchasing intentions for cars, homes, and major appliances all pulled back further in July. Looking ahead, inflation and additional rate hikes are likely to continue posing strong headwinds for consumer spending and economic growth over the next six months.” Read more The chart below is another attempt to evaluate the historical context for this index as a coincident indicator of the economy. Toward this end, we have highlighted recessions and included GDP. The regression through the index data shows the long-term trend and highlights the extreme volatility of this indicator. Statisticians may assign little significance to a regression through this sort of data. But the slope resembles the regression trend for real GDP shown below, and it is a more revealing gauge of relative confidence than the 1985 level of 100 that the Conference Board cites as a point of reference.

Personal Income increased 0.6% in June; Spending increased 1.1% - The BEA released the Personal Income and Outlays report for June: Personal income increased $133.5 billion (0.6 percent) in June, according to estimates released today by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Disposable personal income (DPI) increased $120.4 billion (0.7 percent) and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $181.1 billion (1.1 percent).The PCE price index increased 1.0 percent. Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index increased 0.6 percent. Real DPI decreased 0.3 percent in June and real PCE increased 0.1 percent; goods increased 0.1 percent and services increased 0.1 percent. The June PCE price index increased 6.8 percent year-over-year (YoY), up from 6.3 percent YoY in May. The PCE price index, excluding food and energy, increased 4.8 percent YoY, up from 4.7 percent in May.The following graph shows real Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) through June 2022 (2012 dollars). Note that the y-axis doesn't start at zero to better show the change.The dashed red lines are the quarterly levels for real PCE.Personal income and the increase in PCE were both above expectations. Inflation was above expectations.

Real Disposable Income Per Capita Down Again in June - With the release of this morning's report on June's Personal Incomes and Outlays, we can now take a closer look at "Real" Disposable Personal Income Per Capita. At two decimal places, the nominal 0.62% month-over-month change in disposable income is cut to -0.33% when we adjust for inflation. This is a decrease from last month's 0.57% nominal and a decrease from the -0.01% real change. The year-over-year metrics are 3.1% nominal and -3.5% real. Post-Great recession, the trend was one of steady growth, but generally flattened out in late 2015 with increases in 2012 and 2013. As a result of COVID pandemic stimulus measures, major spikes can be seen in April 2020, January 2021 (a December 2020 payment), and March 2021.The first chart shows both the nominal per capita disposable income and the real (inflation-adjusted) equivalent since 2000. This indicator was significantly disrupted by the bizarre but predictable oscillation caused by 2012 year-end tax strategies in expectation of tax hikes in 2013 and more recently, by COVID stimulus.The BEA uses the average dollar value in 2012 for inflation adjustment. But the 2012 peg is arbitrary and unintuitive. For a more natural comparison, let's compare the nominal and real growth in per-capita disposable income since 2000. Nominal disposable income is up 119% since then. But the real purchasing power of those dollars is up 36.9%.

3 Trucking Veterans Reveal Why They Closed Their Businesses Amid The "Great Purge" - Back in 2018, when trucking was red-hot, Texas native Mike Dow got famous — if just for a moment. An article in The Washington Post featured his insights on why companies were struggling to retain truckers. Dow was as confident as ever. That year, he and his brother founded their own trucking company. He told the Post reporter he was planning bringing in a serious salary: up to $120,000.That turned out to be a modest estimate. In 2021 alone, Dow grossed up to $375,000, thanks in part to retail’s wild uptick. Retail sales grew by 14% in 2021, while it increased on average 3.7% annually from 2010 to 2019. “When you run your own business, it’s a 24-hour-a-day job,” Dow told FreightWaves. “It consumes your life.” Business slowed down as the months went on — and not for the better. Spot rates for dry van, which is what Dow Brothers Transportation specialized in, declined by 24% from the beginning of the year to the week of July 17, according to data from load board Truckstop.com. Expenses, meanwhile, have soared. The break-even cost to run a truck in 2022 is $3.27 per mile, significantly up from $2.16 per mile last year. That spelled the end for Dow Brothers Transportation. Dow and his brother ultimately shuttered their company, sold off their trucks, and got regular jobs earlier this year. Now Dow hauls construction equipment around the bustling Dallas area. He’s home every night for dinner. Big, public trucking companies are reporting their second-quarter earnings. So far, it’s been gangbusters. But small trucking companies are suffering amid the collapse in spot rates, increase in diesel prices and ongoing challenges in finding equipment. Despite rates still being historically high, truckers say that they’re not high enough to deal with the inflated cost of everything else.“Nobody has the same cost structure on anything,” Thom Albrecht, chief financial officer of transportation insurance agency Reliance Partners, told FreightWaves in June. It’s sparking what one freight broker called trucking’s “Great Purge,” with small trucking companies going out of business at a historically high rate. Dry van companies like Dow’s are particularly at risk as the pandemic’s unhinged retail spend cools. Truckers that haul more specialized freight, like grain feed, are still chugging along. FreightWaves spoke to Dow and two other longtime truckers to learn why 2022 has been the year that killed their businesses — and what they think it means for the industry.

UPS Drivers Demand AC in Trucks Following Heat Wave: ‘It’s Like Walking Into Hell’ - UPS workers are turning up the heat on their employer after their union said at least six package delivery drivers in the New York City region experienced heat-related illness on the job during last week’s heat wave. Chris Cappadonna, 26, says he sought emergency care for heat exhaustion an hour into his shift Thursday morning in Brooklyn. With outside temperatures nearing 100 degrees, he started experiencing difficulty breathing and cramped hands, he told THE CITY. He said he was moving heavy furniture in Mill Basin and was “about to pass out” when two city sanitation workers, who apparently noticed he was struggling, stopped him and came to his aid. They let Cappadonna sit in their air-conditioned truck to cool off, and he later went to an urgent care and then the emergency room at Mount Sinai Kings Highway, he said. He and other workers say UPS management is not taking needed measures to protect them from the heat, whether that’s ensuring their trucks have fans or air conditioning, or giving them adequate breaks during heat waves.They’re steamed that the company has invested in new automation technology, drones,surveillance cameras and tracking devices — but not its employees’ comfort One worker told THE CITY a supervisor reprimanded him for taking a 47-second pause for a sip of water — because it was stealing company time.UPS workers represented by Local 804 and Teamsters Joint Council 16 will protest outside the company’s Foster Avenue warehouse in Canarsie, Brooklyn, on Thursday morning, demanding that the company provide air-conditioned trucks — something many drivers for Amazon, FedEx and even the U.S. Postal Service can take for granted.Their call comes as New York state and federal regulators are taking a closer look at how to protect vulnerable workers from the ever-growing threat of extreme heat.Atlanta-headquartered UPS remains the largest private parcel delivery company in the United States, with 450,000 delivery drivers.

 July Vehicle Sales Forecast: Increase to 13.3 million SAAR From WardsAuto: Not a Surge but July U.S. Light-Vehicle Sales Tracking Above Past Two Months (pay content). Brief excerpt: "Wards Intelligence partner LMC Automotive is pegging the entire year at 14.3 million units, meaning the second-half SAAR will have to total 14.8 million units, up from first-half 2022’s 13.7 million ..."This graph shows actual sales from the BEA (Blue), and Wards forecast for July (Red).The Wards forecast of 13.3 million SAAR, would be up about 2% from last month, and down 9% from a year ago (sales were starting to weaken in mid-2021, due to supply chain issues). Vehicle sales is usually a transmission mechanism for Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) policy (far behind housing). However, this time, vehicle sales have been suppressed by supply chain issues, and will probably not be significantly impacted by higher interest rates.

A Flood Of Repossessed Vehicles Poised To Hit The Used-Car Market - A pair of excellent Tweet threads explain what is happening with car prices and pending repossessions.

• There has never been a worst time in the last 30 years to buy a vehicle. Within the span of 2 years, cars went from being the largest depreciating asset one owned, to doing better than most of our stock portfolios, and I’ll explain exactly why.
• To get a better understanding of the insanity which is the car market, lets start with a number that we’re all familiar with: 9.1% (CPI for June). New & used cars are a large portion of that. New vehicles rose 11% yoy and used cars 7.3%.
• But percentages don't do a good job at painting the whole picture so here are the raw numbers: 2 years ago: Average new car: 38k, Average used car: 20k. So what about 2022? Average new car: 50k (+24%)Average used car: 31k (+35%)[Used Car Image from Sully Below]
• Not lookin so hot is it? We went from walking into a dealership, buying a brand new car with $5000 in incentives, to dealerships asking for 10k “market” adjustments on seemingly boring cars (Lookin at you RAV4 hybrid). The culprit?
• Short supply combined with literally 0% rates caused many people to start buying any car that could “fit into their budget”. Why responsibly buy a 30k car, when you can finance a sick 100k truck at 84 months with 0% rate? I mean it’s free money after all. (this is a 7 year loan btw).
• Dealerships saw this, and started to push higher and higher loan terms. Telling customers its "only 900$ a month". The average loan term right now? 72 months — an increase of about 33% since 2010 (48 months).
• But the era of 0% loans was last year, when the fed thought inflation was errrrr transitory (lol), so what’s going on now? Same thing… which makes it even worse. Car loan interest has gone up quite significantly, which means people are financing their car at insane APR.
• Imagine paying 7-8% interest on a 7 year loan for a car, and that is the scary part. People are literally paying hundreds of dollars a month just in interest for their car.
• And this is the ugly bit, when the car market starts to adjust. Normally most cars follow an inverse exponential curve, with the vast majority if the car losing its value in the first 1-3 years. That hasn’t been the case since 2020, and it seems like we’ve seemingly forgotten. [Depreciation Chart From Sully Below]
• Eventually cars will once again, begin to depreciate like they always did. And guess what happens? Those who bought a USED vehicle at a 40% premium? They’re now significantly underwater on a car they financed for 7 YEARS.
• Top it off with some good ol day-to-day inflation, layoffs, and potential recession and you get a recipe for disaster within the car market.

 High Gas Prices At Pump Alter Driving Habits, AAA Finds - Soaring gasoline prices at the pump motivated consumers to go on a buyers' strike, according to a new survey by auto club AAA. In June, 64% of the 1,002 respondents altered their driving habits due to months of soaring gasoline and diesel prices at the pump. Of these, 88% said they reduced driving altogether, 74% combined errands, and more than half reduced restaurant and shopping visits. Many respondents postponed travel this summer. The survey's findings outline precisely what we said in late June when we first noticed gasoline demand destruction emerged as lower- and middle-income households felt the pinch of energy, food, and shelter inflation.The DoE's official implied gasoline demand data shows the weakest demand since the COVID lockdowns (on a seasonal basis) and weakest overall since 2013...Slowing demand topped West Texas Intermediate oil futures prices at $122 a barrel on June 8. Gasoline prices at the pump have also slumped for 41 days, including the single most significant weekly drop in nearly 14 years. However, at $4.355 a gallon, prices are still 38% higher than a year ago and 2x from COVID lows. Since wages haven't kept up with inflation, creating worsening negative real wage growth, it might not be enough to get drivers back on the roads. Also, the latest data from Bank of America's aggregated credit and debit card flows show consumers are tapped out after maxing out credit cards.

Military aircraft drive US goods orders higher in June - An eye-popping surge in new orders for US military aircraft in June drove a surprise increase in demand for big-ticket manufactured goods, according to government data released Wednesday. New orders for defense aircraft and parts surged 80.6 percent compared to May, pushing the total for all durable goods up 1.9 percent in the month to $272.6 billion, the Commerce Department reported. Economists were projecting a 0.5 percent drop in the key data point that feeds into quarterly economic growth calculations. Orders have increased in eight of the past nine months, and even excluding the volatile transportation segment, new orders still gained 0.3 percent. The increase points to solid demand even as US inflation rages at a 40-year high, but economists warn uncertainty caused by the war in Ukraine may cool business investment plans, which could tamp down orders in coming months. The US Federal Reserve is on an aggressive campaign to raise interest rates and to cool the economy and douse inflation fires -- with another hike expected later Wednesday. Even as borrowing costs rise, firms and households still have plenty of cash and pent up demand, in part due to supply snarls throughout the recovery from the pandemic downturn. Gregory Daco, chief economist at EY Parthenon, called it "very encouraging news from the business side," saying "orders were still growing strongly" for goods outside the defense aircraft sector. While civilian aircraft declined in the month, orders for vehicles and parts gained 1.5 percent. Ian Shepherson of Pantheon Macroeconomics said he expects the volatile numbers to slow in coming months. "The surge in the headline does not change the bigger picture of a slowdown in spending, but it has not reached recession-type proportions," he said in an analysis.

Richmond Fed Manufacturing: Mostly Flat in July - Fifth District manufacturing activity remained flat in July, according to the most recent survey from the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond. The composite manufacturing index is at 0 in July compared to -9 in June. Seasonal adjustment factors were recalculated.The complete data series behind today's Richmond Fed manufacturing report, which dates from November 1993, is available here.Here is a snapshot of the complete Richmond Fed Manufacturing Composite series.Here is an excerpt from the latest Richmond Fed manufacturing overview: Fifth District manufacturing activity improved but remained relatively flat in July, according to the most recent survey from the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond. The composite manufacturing index rose from −9 in June to 0 in July, as two of its three component indexes showed marked improvement. The indexes for shipments and volume of new orders rallied from −17 and −20 in June to 7 and −10 in July, respectively. The third component, the employment index, fell to 8 in July from 16 in June. Link to Report Here is a somewhat closer look at the index since the turn of the century.

Dallas Fed Manufacturing: Perceptions of Growth Worsen in July - The Dallas Fed released its Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey (TMOS) for July. The latest general business activity index came in at -22.6, down 4.9 from last month. All figures are seasonally adjusted. Here is an excerpt from the latest report: Growth in Texas factory activity continued at a modest pace in July, according to business executives responding to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey. The production index, a key measure of state manufacturing conditions, was largely unchanged at 3.8, a reading well below average but still indicative of growth.Perceptions of broader business conditions worsened in July. The general business activity index declined five points to -22.6. The company outlook index posted a fifth consecutive negative reading but moved up from -20.2 to -10.8. The outlook uncertainty index came off its two-year high of 43.7, falling to 33.7.Expectations regarding future manufacturing activity were mixed. The future production index climbed 10 points to 13.6. The future general business activity index rose eight points but remained negative at -17.7, suggesting that more manufacturers expect worsened activity six months from now than improved. Other measures of future manufacturing activity, like capacity utilization and new orders, pushed further positive in July.Monthly data for this indicator only dates back to 2004, so it is difficult to see the full potential of this indicator without several business cycles of data. Nevertheless, it is an interesting and important regional manufacturing indicator.

Kansas City Fed Mfg Survey: Moderate Growth in July - The latest index came in at 13, up 1 from last month, indicating "moderate" expansion in July. The future outlook rose to 26. All figures are seasonally adjusted. Here is a snapshot of the complete Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Survey.Quarterly data for this indicator dates back to 1995, but monthly data is only available from 2001.Here is an excerpt from the latest report:Tenth District manufacturing activity grew moderately in July. Expectations for future activity increased after dropping in June (Chart 1, Tables 1 & 2). Monthly and annual survey price indexes fell to their lowest levels in over a year, and indexes for price expectations also moderated.The month-over-month composite index was 13 in July, up from 12 in June, and down from 23 in May (Tables 1 & 2). The composite index is an average of the production, new orders, employment, supplier delivery time, and raw materials inventory indexes. In July, the slower pace in factory growth than earlier in the year was driven by decreased in activity in electrical equipment, electronic products, primary metal, chemical manufacturing, and food manufacturing. Month-over-month indexes were mostly positive in July. Indexes for production, shipments, new orders, and order backlog increased from June’s readings, while inventory and supplier delivery time indexes decreased slightly. Year-over-year factory indexes increased, to a composite index of 46. The supplier delivery time index increased slightly compared to a year ago, along with the materials inventory. However, indexes for finished goods and new orders for exports declined slightly compared to a year ago. The future composite index was 26 in July, rebounding from 10 in June. More firms expected increases in production, shipments, new orders, backlog of orders, employment, capital expenditures, supplier delivery times, and materials inventories. [Full report here] Here is a snapshot of the complete Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Survey.

July Regional Fed Manufacturing Overview - Five out of the twelve Federal Reserve Regional Districts currently publish monthly data on regional manufacturing: Dallas, Kansas City, New York, Richmond, and Philadelphia.Regional manufacturing surveys are a measure of local economic health and are used as a representative for the larger national manufacturing health. They have been used as a signal for business uncertainty and economic activity as a whole. Manufacturing makes up 12% of the country's GDP.The other 6 Federal Reserve Districts do not publish manufacturing data. For these, the Federal Reserve’s Beige Book offers a short summary of each districts’ manufacturing health. The Chicago Fed published their Midwest Manufacturing Index from July 1996 through December of 2013.."Five out of the twelve Federal Reserve Regional Districts currently publish monthly data on regional manufacturing: The latest average of the five for July is -2.16, up slightly from the previous month. Here is the same chart including the average of the five. Readers will notice the range in expansion and contraction between all regions. For comparison, here is the latest ISM Manufacturing survey. Here are links to the five monthly manufacturing indicators that we track:

• Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey (TMOS)
• Kansas City Manufacturing Survey
• Empire State Manufacturing Survey
• Fifth District Manufacturing Survey (Richmond)
• Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey

Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims at 256,000 -- The DOL reported In the week ending July 23, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 256,000, a decrease of 5,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 10,000 from 251,000 to 261,000. The 4-week moving average was 249,250, an increase of 6,250 from the previous week's revised average. The previous week's average was revised up by 2,500 from 240,500 to 243,000. The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims since 1971.

Hospitals struggle with staff shortages as federal Covid funds run out – Hospitals across the country are grappling with widespread staffing shortages, complicating preparations for a potential Covid-19 surge as the BA.5 subvariant drives up cases, hospital admissions and deaths.Long-standing problems, worker burnout and staff turnover have grown worse as Covid-19 waves have hit health care workers again and again — and as more employees fall sick with Covid-19 themselves.Hospitals are coping, as the most transmissible variant to date sweeps the country, by making compromises. They’re shifting staff between departments, handling longer emergency room waits, and even eliminating routine Covid testing. They’re seeking a new balance, recognizing that they cannot sustain the state of vigilance forever that marked the first two years of the pandemic.“We had to ramp up during surges and then try and figure out, ‘Do we keep people or do we let them go when we’re not surging?’” said Julie Hirschhorn, director of molecular pathology at the Medical University of South Carolina in Charleston. “The surges tend to be just far enough apart to not know what to do … It’s a hard new normal.’”The current wave, in which the new number of patients hospitalized with Covid-19 has risen more than 40 percent in the last month, is also putting fresh stress on facilities as federal funding for the pandemic response is running out, leaving some with less flexibility to hire more staff if they need to.In March, a funding deal to cover part of the White House’s $22.5 billion request fell apart because Democrats in Congress objected to repurposing unspent funds promised to the states earlier in the pandemic, while Republicans said they needed an accounting of the $6 trillion Congress appropriated for pandemic relief in past funding bills before approving new money.“There is growing concern that this money has run out,” said Nancy Foster, vice president for quality and patient safety policy at the American Hospital Association. “It’s not really getting sufficient attention.”As of July 22, hospitals in nearly 40 states reported critical staffing shortages, while hospitals in all 50 states said they expected to within a week.Several states where Covid-19 case numbers are rising have big and growing problems, though factors beyond Covid are involved. In California, for instance, only eight hospitals described their staffing shortage as critical as of July 22, but 118 expected to within the week. In Louisiana, only one hospital reported a critical shortage last week, but 46 expected to have one by this week. More hospitals were also expecting shortages in Alabama, Florida, Kentucky, New Mexico, Tennessee and West Virginia — all states with rising cases counts.

 Layoffs Hit Labs As COVID-19 Testing Dwindles - As at-home COVID-19 tests rise in popularity, U.S. laboratories are slimming their workforce and decreasing their capacity for processing PCR tests, The Wall Street Journal reported July 24. U.S. labs can process about 62 million COVID-19 tests a month, which is half of their capacity levels reported in March, according to consulting firm Health Catalysts Group cited in the Journal report. Because of diminishing government funding and less demand, COVID-19 test lab SummerBio laid off 100 workers, and CueHealth, which makes at-home molecular tests, laid off 170 people, about 10 percent of its workforce, according to the Journal. SummerBio, a company that provides PCR testing for COVID-19, said it's switching to "standby-mode" because of a "dramatic reduction" in demand for lab-based testing, according to a July 25 press release. Though the rise in at-home tests makes federal case counts more difficult to manage, labs are simply working with what they can. "It's been a trade-off, but it's a trade-off that we've been accepting," Wilbur Lam, MD, PhD, a biomedical engineering professor at Emory University who helped federal officials review COVID-19 tests, told the Journal. While rapid at-home tests have become more prevalent, manufacturers of those tests, such as IHealth Labs and QuidelOrtho, are also reducing their staff and decreasing production levels. Health Catalysts Group estimates that production capability for rapid tests was 462 million in March, which has since fallen to 320 million.

 Amid outcry and new data, Los Angeles health officials drop plan to reinstate indoor mask mandate - Public health officials in Los Angeles County cited declining COVID-19 hospitalizations when they refrained Thursday from reinstating an indoor mask mandate that was set to go back into effect Friday. At a meeting that was streamed live, public health director Barbara Ferrer addressed reporters about the decision, which she said was made solely based on the downward trend in serious illness for those infected with COVID-19. “As I noted last week, any indication that the county would soon be moving to the ‘medium’ community level would be a good reason to not move forward with universal indoor masking, which is what we are doing today,” Ferrer said, adding, “We will be pausing and not moving forward at this time.” The “medium” transmission designation refers to the Center for Disease Control and Prevention’s three-tier categorization for the spread of COVID-19. Since Los Angeles County follows the CDC guidelines, a “high” rating would have triggered the return of the indoor masking mandate. Days before the decision, health officials had said it was all but inevitable that the indoor mask mandate would be reinstituted. As of July 28, COVID-19 cases in the county were still high, but since July 23, hospitalizations due to the disease caused by exposure to the coronavirus have made a steady decline. Technically, transmission of COVID-19 in L.A. County remains at a high level, but because of the county's more up-to-date information, the CDC encouraged local health officials to reverse course. “Two weeks ago, on July 14, CDC reported that L.A. County moved from the ‘medium’ to ‘high’ community level, and according to the most recent CDC calculations, and these are what we've got posted on their data tracker yesterday, we remain in ‘high’ this week,” Ferrer said. However, she added, “when we use the L.A. County data on hospital admissions, we're moving from high community level to medium community level, because our admission rate calculating all the way through the 27th is now 9.7 new admissions for 100,000 people.”

 Cops Opened Fire Into a Crowd Because They Thought Someone Had a Gun - Police injured five people when they opened fire on a crowd in Denver’s lively entertainment district after they claim a man pulled a gun from his waistband and pointed it at them.The police shot into the crowd at 1:30 a.m. Sunday morning soon after showing up to deal with a group arguing in front of a bar. A witness then described to Denver 7 News seeing the cops “randomly shoot into a crowd of people.” Another witness said he didn’t see the suspect with a firearm.“It was definitely a little traumatic to see that go down, to see police just randomly shooting into a crowd of people. It was just insane,” he said. “I heard maybe six or seven shots. I look to my left and I saw a girl who was hit on the thigh and it hit an artery and she was gushing out blood.”“I can attest that there was no one else who shot a gun but Denver police,” they added. “I saw them draw their guns. They didn't assess the situation.”Police claim the suspect did not fire his weapon. The five victims, as well as the suspect who was also injured, are all expected to survive. Only the suspect and a woman remain in the hospital. Police have not confirmed if the injured were all struck by bullets shot by the officers, or if they were hit by ricochets or shrapnel.

Senate panel turns to kids’ online safety - Two bills that would revamp how tech companies cater to and obtain data from young users will be in the spotlight Wednesday as a Senate panel debates how to update laws designed before the rise of social media. The markup has been long awaited by critics who say the existing regulations are no longer adequate for a generation raised on the internet. Support for the issue has snowballed since a Facebook whistleblower leaked bombshell internal documents last year. The Senate Commerce Committee is slated to discuss two bipartisan pieces of legislation that, taken together, would provide stricter regulations for how online platforms operate for children and teens. In part, the proposals would bring the U.S. closer to the standards put in place by other countries. “We have been saying for a while now that children need both better privacy protections, including privacy protections for teens for the first time, and they need to be protected against manipulative and harmful design that keeps them online too long and exposes them to harmful content. So these bills really work well together,” said Josh Golin, executive director of Fairplay, a group that advocates for children’s and teen’s online safety. The bills before the committee are the Children’s Online Privacy Protection Act, also known as COPPA 2.0, and the Kids Online Safety Act (KOSA). The COPPA 2.0 legislation, led by Sen. Ed Markey (D-Mass.), would update the 1998 law, authored by then-Rep. Markey, that tackles the data social media giants collect from young people. The bill would extend protections to minors ages 12 to 16, who are not protected by current COPPA standards. It would also ban targeted marketing to minors without getting consent. “Big Tech sees our kids’ data as dollar signs, and they use the profits they squeeze out of users with their predatory practices to bankroll industry lobbyists who help them evade accountability and obstruct our efforts to enact online privacy safeguards. For more than a decade, I’ve introduced legislation to update children’s privacy protections, and we’re closer now than we’ve ever been,” Markey said in a statement. “If we can’t protect every American online right now, I’m calling on my colleagues in the Senate to at least step up to protect our children,” he added. The bill is co-sponsored by Sen. Richard Blumenthal (D-Conn.) and Republican Sens. Bill Cassidy (La.) andCynthia Lummis (Wyo.).

Activists push for more school prayer after Supreme Court ruling - A Michigan superintendent is pondering whether coaches should lead students in pre-game prayer. A school board member in Florida wants her district to teach students about prayer and offer religious studies. In Hawaii, the leader of a faith- and family-focused activism group sees a path to altering state policy that says public-school employees cannot initiate prayer on campus.A month has passed since the Supreme Court ruled in favor of a Washington state football coach who knelt at midfield to pray and was joined by student-athletes. The court wrote, in a 6-3 decision, that Bremerton High School assistant coach Joseph Kennedy’s prayers were protected by the Constitution’s guarantees of free speech and religious exercise, and that the district was wrong to discipline him for what the majority saw as a private act.In response, families, teachers and activists are preparing to push religious worship into public schools nationwide — working to blur the line dividing prayer and pedagogy and promising emotional, spiritual and educational benefits for students. Some school officials are listening: In at least three states, Illinois, Alabama and Oregon, school personnel have said they are reviewing their policies on employee prayer.“Our nation has lost its way in having lost a belief of a higher power,” said Christi Fraga, a Miami-Dade school board member who in May successfully proposed establishing an annual day of prayer in her district. “So in my community, there has been a cry for help — a cry to allow prayer in our schools.” Fraga added of the court’s ruling: “I hope it brings back our country to its foundation.”Those who say faith should play a role in public schools are thrilled with their gains and eager to push for more next school year. They cite not only the court’s decision for Kennedy but also a June ruling in which the court declared that Maine cannot prevent religious schools from receiving public tuition grants permitted for other private schools.In other places, though, educators say not much will change — largely because coach-led prayer at games and invocations before school board meetings were already happening.The fiercest advocates for church-state separation also concede they were fighting an uphill battle even before the court’s ruling. Annie Laurie Gaylor, co-founder of the Freedom From Religion Foundation, said many districts routinely ignore the string of 1960s and 1970s Supreme Court decisions establishing that public schools cannot require students to recite prayers, cannot allow teachers to lead students in prayer and generally cannot promote or inhibit religion at school.Gaylor said her foundation, a nonprofit founded in the late 1970s, is constantly fighting back against coaches who lead prayers with students at school or school officials who schedule prayer into the school day. In an average year, school incidents make up 50 percent of the group’s caseload, she said.“We were mopping up anyway; it was like whack-a-mole,” Gaylor said.

Gender transitions at school spur debate over when, or if, parents are told - Alexzander Baetsen came out at school to an English teacher. The revelation was made in a short letter on a piece of lined notebook paper, handed to the teacher as the eighth-grader left class one day. The teen explained that while they were assigned female at birth, they identified as transgender and gender fluid. Baetsen remembers the teacher’s reaction: “Just come to me at the beginning of class and let me know what name and pronouns you want to go by for that day.” It was better than Baetsen expected — not only acceptance but someone who was able to “wrap their head around my situation.” Still, it was six more months before the teenager told their parents. “You fear the worst,” said Baetsen, now 20. Surprising many families nationally, public schools often don’t inform parents when students socially transition. They see confidentiality as a priority — operating under gender-identity guidelines that put student privacy and safety above family consent or knowledge. School leaders say there are good reasons for the approach — mainly, to avoid outing kids who could be in harm’s way at home or aren’t ready to tell their parents. They worry about family rejection and students’ mental health. Transgender students are at a greater risk of suicide and substance use, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. They are twice as likely to experience depressive symptoms. They, along with other LGBTQ youths, constitute a larger share of the foster-care population and are at higher risk for homelessness. At least 18 states, along with D.C. and Puerto Rico, have issued school guidance in some form focused on inclusion and treatment of transgender and gender nonconforming students, said Melanie Willingham-Jaggers, executive director of GLSEN, which advocates for LGBTQ issues in schools. “Not all state guidance is as strong as it should be,” she said. But where stronger rules are in place, school leaders have come under increasing fire for their perceived secrecy. Critics argue they have no business cutting families out of a critical part of children’s lives. The practice has prompted lawsuits in Massachusetts, Florida, Wisconsin, Kansas, Virginia and Maryland. Many of the legal actions point to an especially controversial practice: requesting teachers use new trans names in class but revert to the original “dead” names when talking with parents. “These policies mandate automatic affirmation for children of any age, without confirming that parents are aware,” Tyson Langhofer, senior counsel at the Alliance Defending Freedom (ADF), a conservative Christian legal nonprofit that has filed suit in a string of cases. In many places, schools won’t tell parents unless students say it’s okay, he pointed out. “These policies are starting with the assumption that the parents are the problem,” he said.

Principal of Texas school where shooting happened reinstated - — The principal of the Texas school where the nation’s deadliest classroom shooting in a decade happened was reinstated Thursday, three days after she was suspended with pay in the wake of security criticisms leveled by a legislative committee.Mandy Gutierrez, who Uvalde school district officials suspended with pay Monday as Robb Elementary School principal, was reinstated Thursday in a brief letter from Superintendent Hal Harrell.The reinstatement came after Gutierrez, in a letter to the committee members, disputed the key findings that a “culture of complacency” had developed at the school that allowed a gunman to enter the school and kill 19 children and two teachers. She also said the lock on the door to the fourth-grade classroom where the May 24 shooting happened worked when a custodian checked it the night before.Harrell suspended Gutierrez with pay on Monday pending a performance review pertaining to school security. However, in his Thursday letter, Harrell said she would be allowed to return to work immediately “and will continue to serve the district in an administrative capacity.” The legislative report placed the most fault with local, state and federal law enforcement agencies, which took more than an hour to enter the classroom where the shooter was and kill him as parents outside the school begged officers to do something and dispatchers took 911 calls from inside the school. Surveillance footage of police officers in body armor milling in the hallway while the gunman carried out the massacre led to rage from families of victims, who have demanded accountability.

As monkeypox spreads through universities, US government refuses to act - Even with many campuses mostly vacant for the summer, universities across the United States are registering their first cases of the monkeypox virus. So far, the virus has been found at Georgetown University in Washington D.C., University of California, Berkeley, West Chester University in Pennsylvania and the University of Texas at Austin. The monkeypox virus is spreading on an unprecedented level throughout the United States and the world, already constituting a pandemic. The US reported 1,048 new monkeypox cases Thursday, the biggest one-day increase on record according to BNO News. According to @monkeypoxtally on Twitter, 20,000 cases have been identified around the world with US cases jumping 1,900 percent from 244 to 4,639 in just one month. The US currently holds the global record for most monkeypox cases. Public health activist Laura Miers tweeted concernedly about the spread of the virus and the lack of any serious response by the government, noting “So, monkeypox—a virus that can cause blindness, disfigurement, extreme complications, & death—has been reported on at least 5 college campuses & in county jails. It’s also infecting kids. There is no plan for fall/winter. We cannot accept doing nothing.” American universities have been caught wholly unprepared for outbreaks. After the first case was confirmed at UT Austin, the university’s Health Services Associate Director Susan Hochman claimed the risk of transmission remained low and officials were working to mitigate the risk to students. However, many students feel the university has not released enough information and have no plans for the upcoming fall semester. UT senior Sophie Gendron told Community Impact Newspaper that “I didn’t even find out about the first monkeypox case from the university; I found out through social media.” As of July 21, Austin Public Health identified nine monkeypox cases in Travis County, where Austin is located, with 20 presumptive cases. In California, the Berkeley Health Department confirmed six unrelated cases of monkeypox. The Alameda County Health Department has confirmed 32 cases in Alameda County, which includes Berkeley, Oakland and Fremont, as of Tuesday, out of 356 total in California. UC Berkeley’s six cases bring Alameda County’s total to 38. Contrary to the messaging of the corporate media and health officials, monkeypox is highly contagious and there is evidence that it may be airborne as well. Additionally, contrary to attempts to portray monkeypox as a disease limited to gay and bisexual men, it is in fact communicable to everyone. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) states on its website that young children under eight years old, pregnant women, immunocompromised people and those with a history of dermatitis or eczema are at increased risk for severe outcomes from monkeypox. The WHO notes that recent monkeypox outbreaks, confined largely to the African continent, have had a 3–6 percent fatality rate, putting it above the rate of around 2 percent for SARS-CoV-2.

‘Sudden surge’ of US students consider studying abroad after Roe v Wade overturned -- The number of students looking into education opportunities in Europe spiked in June and July, weeks after the U.S. Supreme Court ruled that abortion is not a constitutional right. Data collected by Study.edu, a European study abroad service, found there was a 20 percent increase all over the U.S. in Americans visiting its platform to investigate study abroad opportunities. The platform found that Germany and the U.K. have been the most popular sought-after destinations for students that are looking for a bachelor or master’s degree. The spike in activity stems from the Supreme Court’s decision in June to overturn Roe v. Wade — a nearly 50-year precedent that affirmed abortion access as a constitutional right. The decision had an almost immediate effect in 13 states, which had trigger bans quickly enacted that outright banned abortion or severely restricted it. Notably, Study.edu didn’t get as much activity from students located in trigger ban states. “We would have expected interest from the thirteen trigger-ban states to rise more than in the rest of the country, since young people there are more likely to be affected by this ruling and may feel stronger about implications of future SCOTUS decisions,” said Sara Sánchez, analyst at Study.eu. “But the opposite was true: platform traffic from those states has grown by 8%, compared to nearly 20% all over the United States.”

Dozens of University of Michigan medical students walk out on anti-abortion keynote speaker -Dozens of incoming medical students at the University of Michigan walked out on a keynote address from an anti-abortion speaker on Sunday in a now-viral moment. Throngs of incoming medical students, known as white coats, stood up as soon as Kristin Collier, an assistant professor of medicine at the University of Michigan, began speaking at the Hill Auditorium during the white coat ceremony in the city of Ann Arbor. One video capturing the walkout was uploaded to Twitter and retweeted more than 74,000 times as of Monday afternoon. Collier, who is also the director of the university’s medical school health, spirituality and religion program, has shared anti-abortion views on her personal Twitter account and in interviews. On June 24, she tweeted support for the Supreme Court’s decision to overturn Roe v. Wade and the 50-year constitutional right to abortion. In another May 4 tweet, Collier said that “liberation that costs innocent lives is just oppression that is redistributed.” “Holding on to a view of feminism where one fights for the rights of all women and girls, especially those who are most vulnerable,” she wrote in another tweet. “I can’t not lament the violence directed at my prenatal sisters in the act of abortion, done in the name of autonomy.” The Hill has reached out to the University of Michigan Medical School for comment. The college has not mentioned the walkout or the keynote address from Collier but has shared posts applauding the incoming class. After the Supreme Court’s decision overturning Roe v. Wade, University of Michigan President Mary Sue Coleman said she supported abortion rights and would “do everything in my power as president to ensure we continue to provide this critically important care.” “Our campus is more than half women; we care about our own communities as well as those we serve through clinical care and education,” Coleman said in a statement last month. “I am deeply concerned about how prohibiting abortion would affect U-M’s medical teaching, our research, and our service to communities in need.”

Justice Thomas no longer listed as GWU faculty after Roe backlash - Supreme Court Justice Clarence Thomas is not listed as an instructor for any courses on the website for George Washington University’s law school, where he’s taught since 2011, a removal that follows the high court’s controversial decision undoing decades of precedent protecting a nationwide right to abortion access.Thomas, among the five justices who voted to overturn the precedent established by Roe v. Wade in 1973, also authored a concurring opinion suggesting the court should also revisit other precedents, including those entitling Americans access to contraception, same-sex marriage and same-sex relationships. His role in the decision prompted a GWU student to launch a petition signed by 11,300 people calling for Thomas to be removed from his teaching post at the university.In an email obtained by the GWU student newspaper, The Hatchet, Thomas’ co-instructor said the justice had informed him that he would be unavailable to teach this semester.“I know that this is disappointing. I am very sorry,” the law school’s Gregory Maggs wrote in his email. George Washington University spokesperson Timothy Pierce confirmed that Thomas informed the law school he is not available to co-teach the class, and that students were informed of the decision in an email from Maggs. Pierce did not provide any further details on the decision.

Survey: More Than Half of Higher Ed Workers Plan to Leave - Many higher education employees are headed for the exits, according to a new survey from the College and University Professional Association for Human Resources, which found that more than half of respondents said they were likely to look for other employment within the next 12 months.According to the survey, released yesterday, 57.2 percent of respondents were somewhat likely (22.3 percent), likely (12.5 percent) or very likely (22.4 percent) to seek work elsewhere within the next year. That number jumped 14 percent since last year, when 43 percent reported that they planned to leave their jobs within the next 12 months.“These results indicate that higher ed institutions are at risk of losing half of their current employees in the next year. In addition, the problem of retention appears to be getting worse rather than better,” the CUPA-HR 2022 Higher Education Employee Retention Survey found.Survey findings indicate that 76 percent of respondents are seeking new work opportunities because they want increased pay, 43 percent want remote work options, 32 percent are seeking flexible work schedules, and another 30 percent want a promotion or additional work responsibilities.While 63.1 percent of respondents reported working “completely or mostly on-site,” the vast majority—70.5 percent—believe that most of their work duties can be performed remotely.“Higher ed in general is facing a crisis in retaining its talent,” the survey notes. Recommendations to boost retention include providing salary increases, offering more remote work options and flexible schedules, carefully managing employee workloads, and finding ways to recognize employee achievements, invest in career development, provide opportunities for advancement and enhance parental leave policies and childcare subsidies.The survey, conducted in May, analyzed data from 3,814 higher education employees. Of that number 80 percent were white and 77 percent were female; 57 percent were supervisors. These findings come on the heels of the National Association of College and University Business Officers conference, held this week, where recruiting and retention talks dominated discussions.

Biden considers new pause on paying back student loans, $10,000 relief - President Biden is considering extending a pause on student loan repayments for several more months, as well as forgiving $10,000 in student loan debt per borrower, according to people familiar with the matter, as he seeks to appeal to young voters ahead of the November midterms. The current moratorium on student loan payments expires Aug. 31, and a fresh pause could extend either through the end of 2022 or until next summer, the people said. Biden told reporters last week that he hoped to decide on an extension by the end of August. Debt forgiveness may follow the extension, but the president hasn’t reached a final decision on either move, the people said. Biden has been weighing appeals from progressives to forgive large amounts of student loan debt almost since entering office, and the extended deliberations have frustrated some advocates. The people asked not to be identified discussing internal White House deliberations. A White House spokesman said Biden and his team are still assessing their options and no decision has been made. It’s unclear if the approach will appease civil rights organizations like the NAACP, progressive Democratic lawmakers and a swathe of powerful labor unions that have pressed Biden to forgive $50,000 per borrower. The plan is intended to appeal to voters under age 30, whose enthusiasm — or lack thereof — in November could be key to determining whether Democrats retain control of the House and Senate. The president is intent on ensuring any student loan forgiveness doesn’t benefit high-income people, so the administration is likely to cap eligibility somewhere between $125,000 and $150,000 in annual income, one of the people said. Biden has neared a decision on student loan forgiveness at least three times in the last several months, according to one Democrat close to the White House. Yet concerns about escalated inflation have complicated the discussions, preventing Biden and his top aides from moving forward with an announcement. Although Biden’s top economic aides have argued student loan forgiveness will not fuel inflation, White House officials have been reluctant to hand Republicans any additional talking points. The opposition party has sought to portray the administration as flooding the economy with money, adding to inflationary pressure.

CFPB urges student loan servicers to help military personnel get debt relief --The clock is ticking for military service members to apply for student loan forgiveness, and the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau is calling on student loan servicers to take the initiative to help identify eligible borrowers.In a blog post published Monday, the CFPB urged student loan servicers to help military borrowers submit their Public Service Loan Forgiveness applications before the Oc. 31 deadline for debt relief for payments that were previously not eligible. “Many military borrowers have education loans that exceed the average mortgage for a home in America,” the CFPB post said. “For military borrowers, failing to get their PSLF application approved will force them to pay thousands or tens of thousands of extra dollars on their student loans unnecessarily.” In 2007, Congress created the PSLF program to encourage students to go into public service professions, including teaching, public health, public safety and other professions by forgiving their educational debt if they have made 120 months of payments on that debt while working for a qualified employer. But for years, military borrowers have complained of the obstacles that prevented them from obtaining the benefits and protections available.The CFPB published a report in 2012 documenting complaints of “sloppy student loan servicing,” detailing issues with payment deferrals and difficulties obtaining protections guaranteed under the Servicemembers Civil Relief Act, among others. One borrower submitted a complaint, quoted in the report, stating that his loans were put into forbearance automatically without an affirmative request or his permission.“I did not ask for my account to be placed in forbearance and as a result of this action, it is currently accumulating interest,” the borrower said. “To make matters worse, my account is accumulating interest at an incorrect and higher interest rate.”

 Who got rich off the student loan debt crisis? - In 2016, 42 million people were owing $1.3 trillion in student debt. It is or was a profit center for Wall Street and also the government. I suspect Wall Street still gets its cut from student loans. Their cut even though the Government makes the loans.Here is how we got into this mess.Albert Lord is a 70-year-old former accountant who became a multimillionaire executive by managing student loans. The story of how America got into the Student Loan Debt Crisis starts with him.For Albert Lord, student loans became his road to riches. As the CEO of Sallie Mae he built it into a financial colossus through fees, interest, and commissions on billions of dollars of federally guaranteed student loans. Yearly he was delivering handsome profits to investors. For Lord himself, and besides pay, he was rewarded with stock eventually worth hundreds of $millions.The source of his wealth was with the loans students needed to attend college. Today, it is not hard to find or know someone young or old burdened by these student loans. Growing along side of those thousands of students and former students burdened by student loan debt was a growing private and profitable industry thriving off of their debt. Albert Lord helped to grow it by privatizing Student Loans.The federal government had relinquished its control of the student loan program to corporate businesses whose goals were profits over diplomas and education. Private equity companies and banks were controlling the flow of the federal loan dollars. Giving loans to students with little financial means was done on a bet they would graduate and make enough to pay the loans back. Loans they could not afford at times while the companies and banks were collecting fees and government fees to hound students in default for payment.The privatized student loan industry has largely succeeded in preserving its status in Washington since the eighties. Congress kept passing new laws limiting the forgiveness of loans up till 2005 when it became impossible to do so. Student loans remain the only consumer debt incapable of being discharged in bankruptcy except in rare cases. It is one of the banking industry’s lobbying triumphs. Then Senator Joe Biden was spearheading many of the lawsrestricting bankruptcy.Stagnating incomes for the middle-class and others has made it difficult for many to afford loans to pay increasing college costs. Reducing support for state college and universities just pushed the costs of college on to students and their parents. If state support was similar to the percentages paid in 1980, more would have gone to higher education.Continued support to public higher education as they had in 1980 (79%), investments of $500 billion would have occurred in university systems. This is based on an analysis of data from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. State and federal budget cuts were reducing college funding serving the neediest students. If state support had even remained at 54% of the total for state universities and colleges, contributions would be more than 1980’s $500 billion to public colleges and universities. Instead, contributions dropped to 37%. A lot of ifs going on here . . .In 2014, there was less student debt per person than today and still the same impact. Forty million Americans bearing $1.3 trillion in debt. The impact of which was altering lives, relationships, and retirement. End of Year 2021, the numbers have grown to 45.7 million holding $1.62 trillion in debt. The average debt in 2014 using the numbers above was $32,500 as and grew to $35,300 in 2021.

Most child-free Americans decide in their teens and 20s not to have kids: study – Most American adults who do not want children made the decision to be childfree early in life,according to a new study. Michigan State University researchers, for a study published in Scientific Reports, identified childfree adults by using data from a representative sample of 1,500 adults who completed MSU’s State of the State Survey. Researchers used three questions to differentiate between people who did not want children and adults without children. They added that distinguishing the group of people who did not want children is typically difficult to study with conventional data. They found that 21.6 percent of those surveyed – or about 1.7 million people – did not want children, making them childfree. Approximately 3.6 percent said they knew before the age of ten that they did not want kids. “People — especially women — who say they don’t want children are often told they’ll change their mind, but the study found otherwise,” Jennifer Watling Neal, associate professor in the psychology department at MSU and co-author of the study, said in a news release. “People are making the decision to be childfree early in life, most often in their teens and twenties. And, it’s not just young people claiming they don’t want children. Women who decided in their teens to be childfree are now, on average, nearly 40 and still do not have children.”

Exercising more than recommended could prolong your life: study – The Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) recommends American adults complete 150-300 minutes of moderate physical activity each week or 75-150 minutes per week of vigorous physical activity. Although a 2018 study found around 80 percent of U.S. adults and adolescents are insufficiently active, those who exceed HHS’ thresholds are more likely to live longer, according to new research published in the American Heart Association’s (AHA) journal Circulation.The study also found no harmful cardiovascular health effects among individuals completing four times the minimum recommended physical activity levels. However, exceeding this threshold also did not result in any additional reduction in death risks.

 ‘True Cost of Aging’ Index Shows Many Seniors Can’t Afford Basic Necessities - Each month, Fran Seeley, 81, a retired teacher, gets $925 from Social Security and a $287 disbursement from an individual retirement account. To make ends meet, she’s taken out a reverse mortgage on her Portland, Maine, home that yields $400 monthly.So far, Seeley has been able to live on this income — about $19,300 a year — by carefully monitoring her spending and drawing on limited savings. But should her excellent health worsen or she need assistance at home, Seeley doesn’t know how she’d pay for those expenses.More than half of older women living alone — 54% — are in a similarly precarious financial situation: either poor according to federal poverty standards or with incomes too low to pay for essential expenses. For single men, the share is lower but still surprising — 45%. That’s according to a valuable but little-known measure of the cost of living for older adults: theElder Index, developed by researchers at the Gerontology Institute at the University of Massachusetts-Boston.A new coalition, the Equity in Aging Collaborative, is planning to use the index to influence policies that affect older adults, such as property tax relief and expanded eligibility for programs that assist with medical expenses. Twenty-five prominent aging organizations are members of the collaborative.The goal is to fuel a robust dialogue about “the true cost of aging in America,” which remains unappreciated, said Ramsey Alwin, president and chief executive of the National Council on Aging, an organizer of the coalition.Nationally, and for every state and county in the U.S., the Elder Index uses various public databases to calculate the cost of health care, housing, food, transportation, and miscellaneous expenses for seniors. It represents a bare-bones budget, adjusted for whether older adults live alone or as part of a couple; whether they’re in poor, good, or excellent health; and whether they rent or own homes, with or without a mortgage.Results from the analyses are eye-opening. In 2020, according to data supplied by Jan Mutchler, director of the Gerontology Institute, the index shows that nearly 5 million older women living alone, 2 million older men living alone, and more than 2 million older couples had incomes that made them economically insecure.And those estimates were before inflation soared to more than 9% — a 40-year high — and older adults continued to lose jobs during the second and third years of the pandemic. “With those stressors layered on, even more people are struggling,” Mutchler said.Nationally and in every state, the minimum cost of living for older adults calculated by the Elder Index far exceeds federal poverty thresholds, which are used to calculate o fficial poverty statistics. (Federal poverty thresholds used by the Elder Index differ slightly from federal poverty guidelines. Data for each state can be found here.)

 Omicron BA.5 makes up 82% of COVID variants in U.S., CDC says (Reuters) - The BA.5 subvariant of Omicron was estimated to make up 81.9% of the circulating coronavirus variants in the United States for the week ended July 23, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) said on Tuesday. This was higher than the 75.9% prevalence estimated in the preceding week. BA.5 has been driving a surge of new infections globally and has shown to be particularly good at evading the immune protection afforded either by vaccination or prior infection. Omicron subvariant BA.4 was estimated to make up 12.9% of the circulating variants in the United States, the data showed. The U.S. Food and Drug Administration has asked vaccine manufacturers to target the two currently dominant subvariants for a potential fall season booster dose. U.S. health officials are also urging people aged 50 or more to get a booster shot, adding that doing so would not prevent them from getting another "bivalent" booster designed to fend off Omicron more specifically later this year.

Second coronavirus booster for those under 50 is on hold amid drive to speed up new vaccine - Second booster shots of the coronavirus vaccine for people younger than 50 are on hold as the Biden administration tries to accelerate a fall vaccination campaign using reformulated shots that target the now-dominant omicron subvariants, according to federal health officials. Officials are hoping vaccine makers — Moderna and Pfizer and its German partner, BioNTech — are able to make the updated shots available as soon as early to mid-September instead of later in the fall, said three officials who spoke on the condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to talk about the issue. The retooled boosters will contain components from the omicron subvariants BA.4 and BA.5 as well as the original formula, which was based on the version of the virus that spread globally in early 2020. The hope is that the redesigned boosters will be more effective in dealing with an evolving virus. In late June, FDA advisers recommended including an omicron component in retooled boosters, and the agency directed the manufacturers to do so. The companies indicated they would probably deliver the new shots in October. But since then, officials have urged the firms to move faster in producing the shots. If the new boosters are available by early to mid-September, the officials said, it is unlikely the administration would authorize a second dose of the current boosters for people younger than 50. A final decision has not been made; officials are waiting for information from the manufacturers on whether there would be an adequate supply of reformulated shots if the fall campaign began earlier than expected.  Earlier this month, administration officials said they were weighing a plan to allow all adults to receive a second booster to blunt a virus surge fueled by ever-more-contagious omicron subvariants such as BA. 5 that evade some immune protections and have increased the risk of reinfections. Ashish Jha, the White House coronavirus coordinator, and Anthony S. Fauci, the White House chief medical adviser, favored making booster shots more widely available this summer and calling for a quick decision. But other experts warned that a second dose of the current booster would not provide a big benefit and might do some harm. Paul A. Offit, director of the Vaccine Education Center at Children’s Hospital of Philadelphia and an outside adviser to the FDA, said recently that repeatedly administering the same vaccine could lead to a phenomenon known as “imprinting,” in which an individual’s immune system develops a highly targeted response to earlier versions of a virus and fails to adapt as that virus evolves.

Fauci holds up BA.5 booster as best approach to handling COVID this fall -- Anthony Fauci, President Biden’s chief medical adviser, said on Monday that a COVID-19 vaccine booster specific to the BA.5 omicron subvariant — which is currently dominant in the U.S. — is the “best guess” for dealing with the virus this fall amid the ever-evolving coronavirus pandemic.Appearing on Hill.TV’s “Rising,” Fauci reiterated that it is difficult to predict how SARS-CoV-2 will mutate and noted that the U.S. is currently in a “BA.5 mode,” with roughly 80 percent of cases caused by the subvariant. The BA.5 subvariant is able to better evade the immune protections offered by vaccines and prior infections than other strains. Its rise has led health experts to call for the development of next-generation COVID-19 vaccines that would be “variant proof.”Both Pfizer and Moderna have said they are working on BA.5 specific boosters that should be ready by the fall.Fauci said the Food and Drug Administration will likely authorize these updated boosters heading into the fall, adding that they would be bivalent vaccines, meaning that they would target BA.5 along with the ancestral strain of COVID-19.“That’s a pretty good estimation of what we will be seeing in the fall,” said Fauci. “There’s always the possibility that you’re going to have the evolution of another variant and hopefully if that occurs it will vary off from the BA.5 only slightly in the sense of being a sub-sub-lineage of it and not something entirely different.”

Respiratory mucosal immunity against SARS-CoV-2 following mRNA vaccination -Abstract: SARS-CoV-2 mRNA vaccination induces robust humoral and cellular immunity in the circulation; however, it is currently unknown whether it elicits effective immune responses in the respiratory tract, particularly against variants of concern (VOCs), including Omicron. We compared the SARS-CoV-2 S-specific total and neutralizing antibody responses, and B and T cell immunity, in the bronchoalveolar lavage fluid (BAL) and blood of COVID-19 vaccinated individuals and hospitalized patients. Vaccinated individuals had significantly lower levels of neutralizing antibody against D614G, Delta (B.1.617.2) and Omicron BA.1.1 in the BAL compared to COVID-19 convalescents, despite robust S-specific antibody responses in the blood. Furthermore, mRNA vaccination induced circulating S-specific B and T cell immunity, but in contrast to COVID-19 convalescents, these responses were absent in the BAL of vaccinated individuals. Using a mouse immunization model, we demonstrated that systemic mRNA vaccination alone induced weak respiratory mucosal neutralizing antibody responses, especially against SARS-CoV-2 Omicron BA.1.1 in mice; however, a combination of systemic mRNA vaccination plus mucosal adenovirus-S immunization induced strong neutralizing antibody responses, not only against the ancestral virus but also the Omicron BA.1.1 variant. Together, our study supports the contention that the current COVID-19 vaccines are highly effective against severe disease development, likely through recruiting circulating B and T cell responses during re-infection, but offer limited protection against breakthrough infection, especially by Omicron sublineage. Hence, mucosal booster vaccination is needed to establish robust sterilizing immunity in the respiratory tract against SARS-CoV-2, including infection by Omicron sublineage and future VOCs.

We’ve all got Covid-19 fatigue, but BA.5 shows it’s not over -- The BA.5 Covid-19 subvariant is now the most dominant strain in the country; the highly infectious variant has caused an uptick in cases and hospitalizations both in hotspots like New York City and the nation overall, but public health action and messaging is less aggressive than with previous outbreaks. BA.5 typically causes familiar symptoms like fever, headache, muscle aches, cough, and sore throat, but can still cause serious illness, especially in individuals with preexisting conditions. It’s even entered the highest halls of power, with President Joe Biden’s doctor saying in a letter Saturday that Biden is likely infected with BA.5. But there’s been little focus on the national plan to keep the subvariant under control, which the Biden administration rolled out July 12.Tracking BA.5’s rise is somewhat complicated because of an increase in at-home rapid testing to confirm infection, rather than testing in a clinical setting, which would send test results to health authorities and paint a fuller picture of the data. While the number of cases is nowhere near the level of infections due to omicron last winter, the week-on-week total of hospital admissions overall has trended up steadily over the past month, according to data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.Furthermore, it’s likely that the full magnitude of the BA.5 outbreak isn’t being captured by available data. In some places like San Diego that use wastewater monitoring, wastewater analysis showed a massive surge in copies of the virus shed into the community’s sewage — 15.5 million copies per liter of wastewater on Wednesday of last week, versus 8 million from the same location the previous week, according to the San Diego Union-Tribune’s Paul Sisson. That trend directly contradicts data available from the San Diego County health department, which actually showed case rates declining 8.3 percent over the same period. For comparison, Sisson reported, there were 47.6 million copies per liter in the same location on January 9, 2022, during the omicron wave.The recent dominance of BA.5 and its fellow omicron subvariant BA.4 likely comes from a combination of increased transmissibility and mutations that enhance their ability to evade immunity people have from previous infection or vaccination, Natalie Dean, an associate professor of epidemiology at the Rollins School of Public Health of Emory University, told Reuters. “You don’t even need an increase in transmissibility to explain the advantage,” she said.Given data showing low rates of severe illness and death in many places, and public fatigue with Covid-19 restrictions, many health authorities aren’t tightening previously loosened restrictions.“I’m like everyone else: I hate wearing that mask. But more than that, I hate the idea that I might accidentally transmit to somebody else,” Barbara Ferrer, the Los Angeles County public health director, told the New York Times. “That’s my biggest fear — that we’re so anxious to be done with this virus that we’re getting complacent.”

 How is the BA.5 COVID-19 variant different from other strains? - The fast-spreading BA.5 subvariant of Omicron and its close relative BA.4 now make up around 95% of COVID-19 cases in the U.S., according to estimates published Tuesday by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). The strains have driven an acceleration this month in the pace of new COVID-19 cases — President Biden among them. Hospital admissions in some regions now eclipse the worst days of the Delta variant wave last year, especially among Americans aged 70 and older.CDC officials say they are now studying the current wave, with early results on how the variants are impacting issues like vaccine efficacy due by later next month. And data from other countries that have already survived a wave of cases from BA.5 and its close relativeBA.4 could offer clues on what is to come. However, the nature of the pandemic has changed in important ways, and there is now a wide swath of people with prior infections, protection from vaccines, or both. This is muddying attempts to study the virus. Data from studies in the United Kingdom, as well as the country's ongoing COVID-19 survey, suggest that the share of sickened residents there reporting the once-hallmark symptoms of loss of taste and smell has fallen significantly since earlier in the pandemic.This was a shift first observed by scientists around the world during the wave of Omicron BA.1 subvariant infections over the winter. Instead, COVID-19's flu-like symptoms are now more commonly reported. "The percentage of people testing positive who reported abdominal pain, fever, sore throat, and muscle ache have increased in June 2022 compared with May 2022," the country's Office for National Statistics reported through June 24. But it's hard to say how much of that shift is due to a change in the virus itself. Scientists have hypothesized that immunity from prior infections could also be playing a role in affecting what appear to be the common symptoms seen during the latest Omicron waves. Federal researchers have estimated that BA.4 and BA.5's mutations place them among the most distant from the original strain of the virus in 2020, and closer even to the Beta variant first seen in May 2020 than to its Omicron cousin BA.1. Data from Qatar suggests people who survived a COVID-19 infection before the Omicron variant have only around 15% protection against a symptomatic reinfection by BA.4 or BA.5. If the previous infection was from another Omicron subvariant, that estimate rises to 76%. "What is the closest parallel to what we are seeing in the U.S.? The U.K. is the closest, but the U.K. itself is so far removed from what we are seeing in the U.S. here," Soundararajan cited the wide gap in new COVID-19 cases during March between the two countries, when the U.K. reported a sharp increase in BA.2 infections at a time when cases in the U.S. were largely slowing. Their metric suggests that while BA.5's significant growth advantage will fuel a surge in cases, the "immunity wall" built up during the winter wave suggests the current wave will not reach the same record heights. Even as the pace of COVID-19 hospitalizations has accelerated around the country, measurements of some of the worst outcomes of the disease remain far lower than during some previous waves in the pandemic. Only a relatively small percentage of hospital intensive care unit beds around the countryare taken up by COVID-19 patients. The pace of new COVID-19 deaths remains worse than at this time last year, at an "unacceptable" average of more than 300 deaths per day. But, even among more vulnerable groups like nursing home residents, COVID-19's daily death toll remains a fraction of some previous waves.

Reinfection, severe outcome more common with BA.5 variant; virus spike protein toxic to heart cells | Reuters - The following is a summary of some recent studies on COVID-19. They include research that warrants further study to corroborate the findings and that has yet to be certified by peer review.

• Reinfections, severe outcomes may be more common with BA.5. Compared with the earlier Omicron BA.2 subvariant, currently dominant Omicron BA.5 is linked with higher odds of causing a second SARS-COV-2 infection regardless of vaccination status, a study from Portugal suggests.From late April through early June, researchers there studied 15,396 adults infected with the BA.2 variant and 12,306 infected with BA.5. Vaccines and boosters were equally effective against both sublineages, according to a report posted on Monday on medRxiv ahead of peer review. However, 10% of BA.5 cases were reinfections, compared to 5.6% of BA.2 cases, which suggests a reduction in protection conferred by previous infection against BA.5 compared to BA.2, the researchers said. Moreover, the vaccines appeared to be less effective in reducing the risk of severe outcomes for BA.5 compared with BA.2."Among those infected with BA.5, booster vaccination was associated with 77% and 88% reduction in risk of COVID-19 hospitalization and death, respectively, while higher risk reduction was found for BA.2 cases, with 93% and 94%, respectively," the researchers wrote. While "COVID-19 booster vaccination still offers substantial protection against severe outcomes following BA.5 infection," they said, their findings provide "evidence to adjust public health measures during the BA.5 surge."
• Virus spike protein damages heart muscle cells. The spike protein on its surface that the coronavirus uses to break into heart muscle cells also triggers a damaging attack from the immune system, according to new research. The SARS-CoV-2 spike protein interacts with other proteins in cardiac myocytes to cause inflammation, researchers said on Wednesday in a presentation at the American Heart Association's Basic Cardiovascular Sciences Scientific Sessions 2022. In experiments with mice hearts, comparing the effects of SARS-CoV2 spike proteins and spike proteins from a different, relatively harmless coronavirus, the researchers found that only the SARS-CoV-2 spike protein caused heart dysfunction, enlargement, and inflammation. Further, they found, in infected heart muscle cells only the SARS-CoV-2 spike interacted with so-called TLR4 proteins (Toll-like receptor-4) that recognize invaders and trigger inflammatory responses. In a deceased patient with COVID-19 inflammation, the researchers found the SARS-CoV-2 spike protein and TLR4 protein in both heart muscle cells and other cell types. Both were absent in a biopsy of a healthy human heart."That means once the heart is infected with SARS-CoV-2, it will activate the TLR4 signaling," Zhiqiang Lin of the Masonic Medical Research Institute in Utica, New York said in a statement. "We provided direct evidence that spike protein is toxic to the heart muscle cells and narrowed down the underlying mechanism as spike protein directly inflames the heart muscle cells," he told Reuters. "More work is being done in my lab to test whether and how spike protein kills heart muscle cells."
• Omicron-targeted antibody combo nears human trials. A new monoclonal antibody combination can prevent and treat Omicron infections in monkeys, researchers reported on Monday in Nature Microbiology.The antibodies, called P2G3 and P5C3, recognize specific regions of the spike protein the SARS-CoV-2 virus uses to enter cells. "P5C3 alone can block all SARS-CoV-2 variants that had dominated the pandemic up to Omicron BA.2," said Dr. Didier Trono of the Swiss Institute of Technology in Lausanne. "P2G3 then comes to the rescue as it not only can neutralize all previous SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern, but it can also block BA.4 and BA.5," he said. "P2G3 is even effective against some BA.2 or BA.4/BA.5 mutants capable of escaping (Eli Lilly's) bebtelovimab, the only antibody approved for the clinics still displaying activity against the currently dominant BA.4/BA.5 subvariants."In lab experiments, mutations that might make SARS-CoV-2 variants resistant to P2G3 did not allow escape from P5C3, and P5C3 escape mutants were still blocked by P2G3, Trono said. "In essence, the two antibodies cover for each other, one filling in for the lapses of the other and vice versa."

How long is COVID infectious? What scientists know so far -- When the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) halved its recommended isolation time for people with COVID-19 to five days back in December, it said that the change was motivated by science. Specifically, the CDC said that most SARS-CoV-2 transmission occurs early in the course of the illness, in the one to two days before the onset of symptoms and for two to three days after.Many scientists disputed that decision then and they continue to do so. Such dissent is bolstered by a series of studies confirming that many people with COVID-19 remain infectious well into the second week after they first experience symptoms. Reductions in the length of the recommended isolation period — now common around the world — are driven by politics, they say, rather than any reassuring new data.“The facts of how long people are infectious for have not really changed,” says Amy Barczak, an infectious-disease specialist at Massachusetts General Hospital in Boston. “There is not data to support five days or anything shorter than ten days [of isolation].” Barczak’s own research, published on the medRxiv preprint server, suggests that one-quarter of people who have caught the Omicron variant of SARS-CoV-2 could still be infectious after eight days¹.Although the question is simple — for how long is someone with COVID-19 contagious? — experts caution that the answer is complicated. “We always think of it as a black and white thing … if somebody’s infectious or not infectious — but in reality, it’s a numbers game and a probability,” says Benjamin Meyer, a virologist at the University of Geneva in Switzerland.And that numbers game has shifting rules and baselines. Emerging variants, vaccination and varying levels of natural immunity provoked by previous infection can all influence how quickly someone can clear the virus from their system, Meyer says, and this ultimately dictates when they stop being infectious. Behavioural factors matter as well. People who feel unwell tend to mix less with others, he adds, so the severity of someone’s symptoms can influence how likely they are to infect others. Something most scientists are confident about is that PCR tests can return a positive result even after someone is no longer infectious. This probably occurs when the tests, which detect viral RNA, pick up non-infectious remnants left behind after most of the live virus has been eliminated. By contrast, lateral flow (or ‘rapid antigen’) tests offer a better guide to infectiousness, because they detect proteins produced by actively replicating virus. “There’s still all of these things that we’re not exactly sure about, but if I had to sum it up in one very concise message, it would be that if you’re antigen positive, you shouldn't go out and interact closely with people who you don’t want to be infected,” says Emily Bruce, a microbiologist and molecular geneticist at the University of Vermont in Burlington. What about somebody who has tested negative on a lateral flow test for a few days but still has a fever and a hacking cough? Bruce says it’s important to remember that although lingering symptoms might look and sound serious, they do not indicate continued infectiousness. “You can definitely have symptoms for longer than you test positive on lateral flow,” she says. “And I think that’s because many of the symptoms are caused by the immune system and not directly by the virus itself.”

Fauci calls BA.5 a ‘moving target’ that may subside by the time Omicron boosters are ready. Scientists are pushing for a universal COVID vaccine instead Vaccines made specifically to tackle the BA.5 subvariant of COVID should be ready by this fall, Dr. Anthony Fauci, U.S. President Joe Biden's chief medical advisor, told The Hill this week. But the vaccines could suffer from one major flaw—BA.5-specific vaccines may become less effective once the Omicron subvariant is replaced by another strain, a real possibility given that dominant strains have been replaced with more competitive forms of the virus roughly every six monthsduring the course of the pandemic."You’re dealing with a moving target," he said on The Hill's Rising television show. “There’s always the possibility that you’re going to have the evolution of another variant... And hopefully, if that occurs, it will vary off from the BA.5 only slightly—in the sense of being a sub-sublineage of it, and not something entirely different."The White House and vaccine makers are already trying to head off a worse outcome by accelerating efforts to develop a universal COVID vaccine that would protect against multiple variants.On Tuesday the White House hosted a summit with Pfizer, Moderna, health officials, and other pharmaceutical executives to discuss a universal COVID vaccine. “These are vaccines that are going to be far more durable, that are going to provide far longer-lasting protection, no matter what the virus does or how it evolves,” Ashish Jha, the White House COVID-19 response coordinator, told Stat News about the summit.On Wednesday, Pfizer announced the start of phase II trials for its new "next-generation" universal vaccine candidate that would protect against both the original 'wild-type' COVID strain and Omicron variants."I'm besides myself," Dr. Elias Said, director at Regenerative Medical Health, wrote on Twitter about the announcement. "We need a pan-Coronavirus Vaccine."Some experts believe that creating a universal COVID vaccine that would protect against all variants, and potentially future ones, is far preferable to making a new vaccine every time a new variant pops up.Eric Topol, founder of the Scripps Research Translational Institute, says that "variant chasing" and the development of variant-specific boosters will never keep up with the pace of emerging new variants. “Variant chasing is a losing strategy," he tells Stat News. "It’s temporally flawed and unacceptable.” Nonetheless, Omicron-specific boosters appear to be on their way. In late June, the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) asked vaccine makers to update their vaccines for BA.5. As of this week, 82% of cases recorded in the U.S. are BA.5. The BA.5 wave has led to an explosion of cases, even if they're not reflected in official statistics. The U.S. is currently reporting 131,000 cases per day in the last week, but sewage samples show that the figure may be several times higher and potentially at record levels.

COVID-19 variant BA.5 is dominant strain; BA.2.75 is being monitored - COVID-19 infections in the U.S. continue to rise, with omicron BA.5 causing an estimated 82% of cases, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). It may be the most dominant strain, but it's not the only one public health officials are monitoring. Omicron is a variant of COVID-19. BA.5 and BA.2.75 refer to as subvariants or strains of omicron. Variant basically means a mutation that occurs in the virus over time."BA.5 is a strain that has properties associated with increased transmission of the virus, which is really why it's become so prevalent in the U.S. and globally," says Matthew Binnicker, Ph.D., director of the Clinical Virology Laboratory at Mayo Clinic. "It also has some properties of what we call 'immune evasion' that allows the virus to sidestep some of the prior immunity from either vaccination or previous infection." A subvariant known as BA.2.75 also is being monitored by the World Health Organization (WHO) and the CDC. Since it was detected in India in May, cases of BA.2.75 have been reported in more than a dozen countries. It's also been referred to unofficially as Centaurus."BA.2.75 has multiple mutations in the gene encoding for the spike protein of the virus. That's the part of the virus that sticks out and binds to the host cell receptor, and those mutations allow the virus to bind to that receptor more efficiently," says Dr. Binnicker. "It can infect human cells better. And it also has mutations that may make our antibodies, which are generated in response to vaccination, less able to bind or neutralize the virus. So there, again, is some concern that this virus may be able to spread quicker and also be able to evade immunity from vaccination or prior infection." Most illnesses and hospitalizations from COVID-19 infection are from the BA.4 and BA.5 variants. So how does the BA.2.75 subvariant affect people?"BA.2.75 appears to have a higher rate of infectivity," says Dr. Binnicker. "So more efficiently being spread from person to person. We don't have any solid data to suggest that it causes more severe disease, but it's important to point out that as more people are infected, even with a less virulent strain, the chances that the virus infects someone who's more susceptible to severe infection increases. Those who have an immunocompromised condition could still end up with severe disease and be hospitalized. It is a concern whenever a virus can infect people at a higher rate because the chances that the virus will infect an individual who is highly susceptible to worse outcomes then increases."Looking ahead as children across the nation ready for the return to the classroom, Dr. Binnicker says it's going to be important to keep an eye on the rate of infection. "There definitely is concern that as we move into the fall and winter months of 2022, and then into 2023, that the new strains of the virus, including BA.27.5, will increase as kids go back to school. They're going to be interacting, and there's going to be increased rate of transmission of viruses, including COVID 19."

Covid: Symptoms of Omicron include stiff neck, numbness in arm and distorted vision - There are over four million Britons currently bogged down with symptomatic Covid, the latest ZOE health data suggests. Omicron BA.5 - the latest subvariant of Omicron - is thought to be responsible. It takes immune escape, already extensive, "to the next level", wrote Doctor Eric Topol, a prominent US-based Covid expert in a recent blog post. Indeed, it's not just the enhanced transmissibility that makes the subvariant unusual. It's also giving rise to a spate of peculiar symptoms, some of which can be debilitating. That's the takeaway from a doctor's account of her Omicron BA.5 ordeal. Writing on Twitter, UK-based Doctor Claire Taylor shared her symptoms as they unfolded. On day five, the doctor posted: "I actually could not move my neck at all." The doc said "around day 10 I developed numbness and tingling down my left arm. I still could not move my neck". She went to sleep and "woke up with distorted vision in my left eye. Couldn’t read anything as bits of text missing". She described her onslaught of symptoms as "essentially viral meningitis". Citing "fever, neck pain and stiffness and dislike of bright light" as meningitis-like symptoms. Her takeaway? Covid is not "just a cold" as some naysayers like to suggest.

Settling in for the long haul - A couple of tweets flicked across my screen in the past week or so from people I don’t know asking how, perhaps a year or two in, the knowledge settles across your shoulders that you’re not recovering from long covid and may not ever fully recover, you, well, deal? No surprise; I have thoughts and feelings about this. But, surprise (to me anyway); the series of moments when it seeps into your bones that no one and nothing is coming to rescue you are emotionally just really fucking hard, and I’ve shied away from thinking too much about this period of my life. Partly because I read the tweets from these people who may have this and far worse ahead of them, and I don’t want to make any of it the tiniest, least perceptible bit harder. But also because that time for me was a long interstitial of brain fog and denial, hopes raised and dashed, chasing after a doctor or a programme or sure fire cure of some kind and just being repeatedly floored by disappointment while slowly realising I was no longer, really, a person in the world, a person with friends and fun and any kind of over-arching telos in my life, and partly because I HATE stories that resolve with ‘I just had to get used to it and when I did, things didn’t get better but I felt slightly better about them.’Reader, I just had to get used to it. This will be a digressive piece. I come at these things and flit away, a bit like the tweets that flash up from people saying stuff like ‘my parents are starting to believe the doctors and are telling me it’s psychological, I just don’t want to be well, I have literally nowhere else to go.’ I mean, what do you do with that? You can say, well, this is a mass disabling event, there are so many more of you now that even doctors are staying sick and occasionally even saying ‘ok it’s real now even I get it’, so there’s more chance you’ll be believed and hundreds of times more money going into real research than did for the last couple of decades. But that’s not going to help the college student who’s returned home to a stalled life and a support system that seemed encompassing at first, but which is now coldly, methodically, pulling its arms away when the kid doesn’t recover in a socially acceptable period of time. (And that scenario, to be fair, is still the Cadillac of long covid support systems.)

More than two years in and these Americans still haven’t gotten covid — yet - There are no winners in a pandemic. That said, if you’ve made it to the summer of 2022 without yet testing positive for the coronavirus, you might feel entitled to some bragging rights. Who’s still in the game at this point? Not Anthony S. Fauci. Not President Biden, who tested positive this week. Not Denzel Washington, Camila Cabello or Lionel Messi. Not your friend who’s even more cautious than you but who finally caught it last week. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention estimated that nearly 60 percent of Americans had contracted the virus at some point — and that was as of the end of February, before the extremely contagious BA.4 and BA.5 variants became rampant. You might suspect that you are special — immunologically superior, a super-dodger. You also might have come up with some bizarre theories about why you’ve lasted longer. “I’ve always been doing strikeouts, and I don’t think that anyone else is doing them as much as I am,” said Luke Martin, a 30-year-old film producer, from his apartment in Brooklyn. Martin does comedy in his spare time and was joking — mostly. He did start doing strikeouts on Zoom calls with old college buddies at the onset of the pandemic shutdown and continued even when the world reopened. One by one, the people in Martin’s orbit fell ill with covid. But not him. Coincidence?Yes, definitely. That is definitely a coincidence. But among covid-deniers — the always-testing-negative ones, not the conspiracy theory crew — theories about the reasons for their good fortune abound.“I must have superhuman immunity or something,” mused Kathi Moss, a 63-year-old pediatric nurse from Southfield, Mich.Scientists have found no conclusive evidence of innate genetic immunity. “It would be extremely unlikely that any innate immune system properties could protect against all infections,” said Eleanor Murray, an epidemiologist and professor at the Boston University School of Public Health. But Moss’s ability to duck the virus — to her knowledge, we should add; a disclaimer that applies to all these folks, since in theory they could have had asymptomatic cases at some point — does cry out for an explanation. Consider that she’s a pediatric nurse who has been staring covid in the face (while fully masked) for 2½ years now. And that she rode in a car with her ex-husband, with the windows up, three days before he tested positive. And that a woman at the camp where she works every summer gave Moss a henna tattoo one day and reported a positive coronavirus result the next. Moss’s mysterious good fortune has not made her less worried about contracting the virus. She wants to stay in the game as long as she can, because she knows it’s not a game at all. What Moss fears the most is the potential long-term effects of covid. “I just keep thinking, ‘I don’t want it. I just don’t want this disease,’ ” she said.

 As BA.5 Dominates U.S., Is Omicron Subvariant BA.2.75 on the Horizon? - One year ago, Americans were worried about the delta coronavirus variant. Six months ago, the omicron wave reached its peak. Since then, a succession of new omicron subvariants has kept the U.S. on its toes, with BA.5 as the latest to rise to dominance. So, what comes next? It’s a guessing game that is baffling experts – many of whom have been humbled by a virus that has rendered predictions a losing battle. “None of us has a crystal ball, and we are trying to use every last ounce of what we can from predictive modeling and from the data that we have to try to get ahead of a virus that has been very crafty,” Peter Marks, a top vaccine official at the Food and Drug Administration, recently said. “For something that’s only nanometers in size, it’s pretty darn crafty. We’re trying to make our best judgment here.” Still, the FDA is asking vaccine manufacturers to update their shots to match circulating variants in the hopes of providing more efficient boosters in the fall. However, concern is growing that the rapid pace at which variants are turning over means vaccine makers are already falling behind. Just the latest example of this is BA.2.75, which was first reported in India. More than 20 cases have been documented across nine states in the U.S. However, the subvariant is not yet at a high enough threshold to make it onto the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s variant tracker as of last week. The geographical spread of BA.2.75 – it’s been found in at least 15 countries – as well as its many mutations – nine more mutations on the spike protein than BA.2 – means public health officials need to keep an eye on the subvariant, according to Shishi Luo, the head of infectious disease at Helix, a gene sequencing company tracking coronavirus variants. But for now there is “no evidence yet of the extent to which these mutations impact on transmissibility and disease severity compared to other circulating lineages,” according to the World Health Organization. While WHO is the official body that names coronavirus variants, several news reports have deemed omicron subvariant BA.2.75 “centaurus” after one Twitter user posted the name on July 1. Some have criticized WHO’s naming strategy, saying that it has led to an alphabet soup of subvariants that has made it difficult for the public to follow along with the changing variant scene. But WHO is sticking to its strategy.

Coronavirus dashboard for July 27: likely at or past the BA.4&5 peak - Let’s start with Biobot, since wastewater doesn’t lie. The bad news is, it shows a nearly 50% increase between June 29 and July 20. The good news is, in the last week of that period, between July 13 and July 20, it only increased less than 4%, suggesting that the BA.5/July 4 superspreader celebration wave has peaked, at a level equivalent to 500,000 “real” cases (from a starting point of 350,000): The regional breakdown shows that the only region where wastewater has not plateaued is the Midwest: Meanwhile, the CDC variant data indicates that by the end of last week, BA.4&5 constituted 95% of all cases: This is consistent with infections from these variants being at or past peak. All regions of the country had similar variant profiles. There is no new variant (in particular, BA.2.75) making any appearance. *Confirmed* cases (dotted line below) have remained between 120-130,000, with yesterday at 129,000. Deaths (solid line), at 429, have continued to plateau at roughly 100 more daily than in the April - June period (net the biweekly oscillations particularly in deaths are primarily an artifact of Florida’s reporting “system”): Breaking down confirmed cases by Census region shows that only the Midwest shows a slight increase: On the other hand, hospitalizations have continued to increase, to 46,700, consistent with evidence that BA.5 in particular is more virulent: I think the BA.5 wavette has peaked, although whether we have a sustained plateau, or going into a substantial decline is completely unknown, but based on the experience of South Africa, which after the BA.4&5 wave declined to lows below even before the first wave of Omicron struck last November, I think the latter is more likely.

COVID cases on the rise across Northeast Ohio -COVID-19 cases are on the rise across Northeast Ohio, but although the newest variant is highly contagious, it is not causing a surge in hospitalizations, infectious disease experts said. Erie, Huron, Lorain, Mahoning, Medina and Trumbull counties have all returned to high levels of community spread of the virus, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). That means people should wear a mask indoors in public and on public transportation, get tested if they are exposed or have symptoms, and stay up-to-date on vaccines, the CDC says. Dr. Keith Armitage, medical director of the Roe Green Center for Travel Medicine & Global Health at University Hospitals, said the increase in cases is caused by the latest COVID-19 variant, known as BA.5. "It is a derivative of omicron, but there's enough mutations in the spike protein that allows it... 'immune escape' and it's also highly, highly contagious," he said. "And so now it's become a dominant strain." Case numbers are up across the state. State health officials counted nearly 8,000 more COVID-19 infections last week than the first week in the month. Wastewater testing, which gives public health officials advanced warning of trends, showed a 100% increase in virus levels in mid-July compared to the last week in June in Cuyahoga, Lorain, Medina, Canton and Warren counties, according to the state's wastewater monitoring network. Those increases track with the number of infections in Summit County, said Health Commissioner Donna Skoda. The case numbers are likely widely underreported because of the mildness of symptoms and the prevalence of at-home testing, Skoda said. "We do estimate that our numbers are probably eight times higher than what we're getting reported," she said. "It's pretty high. There is a lot of BA.5 circulating. It's very contagious and therefore folks are getting it." For now, BA.5 seems to cause milder symptoms, experts said. It is not attacking the lungs, like earlier versions of the disease did, Armitage added. That — coupled with immunity that many people now have because of vaccinations or previous infections — means that the virus is less likely to cause severe disease. Some people will experience just mild or moderate cold-like symptoms, while some will feel like they have been "kicked in the behind" by the flu, said Armitage. Hospitalizations are also trending up across the state, although numbers remain low, Ohio Department of Health figures show. Those hospitalizations likely reflect people who are hospitalized for other things, but may also have COVID-19, Armitage said. "We're not seeing otherwise healthy people, who maybe have some risk factors like hypertension, obesity, diabetes, but are otherwise healthy, coming in on a ventilator," Armitage said. Those with underlying conditions may head to the hospital, even though their COVID-19 symptoms are mild because the virus exacerbates other symptoms, said Dr. Amy Ray, medical director of infection prevention and regulatory affairs at Metro Health System.

Ohio sees almost 30000 new COVID-19 cases in 1 week --Ohio has seen more than 20,000 new COVID-19 cases for three weeks consecutively: the state saw 26,610 more people contract the virus last week and 24,465 the week before, meaning there have been 80,951 new cases in just three weeks. The jump in cases week-to-week was not as dramatic as July 14, however, when Ohio saw a nearly 30% increase. How families can apply for pandemic food assistance Prior to July, the state's COVID-19 spread had not broken 20,000 new cases in nearly five months. The jump is a rebound from four weeks where Ohio had no clear upward or downward trend in case rates. It previously saw an eight-week streak of consistent rises in new cases end in late May. Over the past week, the state averaged 4,268 new coronavirus cases per day. ODH began reporting COVID-19 cases, hospitalizations, deaths and vaccinations weekly instead of daily in mid-March after new infections slowed to a low level after the omicron wave. The rise in cases was accompanied by more people being hospitalized with the virus. The 705 hospitalizations reported by ODH in the past seven days (about 101 per day) are higher than 690 last week and 550 two weeks ago. More people also died from COVID-19 over the past week. ODH said 54 had died from the virus by Thursday, more than doubling the 22 deaths in the week prior. As cases were consistently going up, the state also saw a major jump in vaccinations. Compared to 8,870 in the week before, 21,610 Ohioans started the COVID-19 vaccination process in the past seven days, per ODH data. Another 23,448 finished vaccination by getting their second dose. Around six in 10 Ohioans are partially or fully vaccinated.

COVID Cases USA: NYC Hospitalizations, BA5 Variant Infections Boom – New York's COVID hospitalization rate has soared to a five-month high, fueled by a New York City admission rate unseen since mid-February and a Long Island streak that has topped state charts daily for the last month at least, according to Gov. Kathy Hochul's latest virus update. And these aren't all mild cases, either. Statewide, the hospitalization rate per 100,000 skyrocketed 50% between this time in June and now, with nearly 2,800 COVID patients admitted as of Wednesday. New York City's number has boomed 70% in the same time period, while the number of COVID patients in intensive care units across the five boroughs grew by nearly two-fold. Long Island's rate of increase is also substantial (48.3% monthly increase) but markedly less than the others given its comparatively high sustained rate for almost all of July. Those same two regions also recently notched half-year highs in reinfection rates as the so-called "worst version" of omicron yet -- one shown not only to be more transmissible but more than four times as vaccine-evasive as its most vaccine-evasive predecessor -- maintains its stranglehold on America. COVID hospitalizations in New York hit their highest raw total since Feb. 18 a day ago, which while eyebrow-raising for some is tempered by the fact that fewer than 42% of those patients did not have COVID listed as one of the reasons for admission. In other words, the virus was discovered during routine testing and may not have been detected otherwise. While no evidence indicates that BA.5 causes more severe illness from COVID than other strains, people who have never been vaccinated, and even fully vaccinated and boosted people who were last dosed in 2021, are seeing higher hospitalization rates from COVID than in recent months. New York state's breakthrough hospitalization rate has risen each of the last six weeks and now stands at 1.67 per 100,000. The rate is nearly seven times higher for unvaccinated people.

The BA.4 and BA.5 subvariants now dominate worldwide - In the past year, the rapid mutation of the coronavirus has triggered new variants, which have swept across the world: Delta last summer, then omicron in winter and more recently omicron’s subvariants BA.2, BA.4 and BA.5. The last pair have quickly become the world’s dominant forms of the coronavirus, as recorded in the GISAID international repository of coronavirus genetic sequences analyzed by The Washington Post. The worldwide chart of coronavirus variants below shows the sequence of omicron subvariants that have emerged since the peak of the delta wave in September 2021. The BA.4/BA.5 subvariants, which are very similar, were a small share just a few months ago and are now dominant. The GISAID sequences represent countries where genomic findings are publicly released, so some large countries are not included. Sequencing within the United States varies widely. Nationwide, omicron BA.4/BA.5 made up 4 percent of coronavirus samples sequenced in late May but is now the majority of sequences.It takes about a week for laboratories to identify virus variants, so this data is always time-lagged. Using variant data, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention estimated that omicron BA.4 and BA.5 were more than three-quarters of the covid cases in the United States.The impact of the BA.5/BA.5 subvariant is unclear, but like other versions of omicron they cause reinfection and sometimes evade vaccines. The CDC has urged people to remain up-to-date with vaccine boosters because people with outdated vaccines face increased danger from the variants.The charts below show the mix of coronavirus variants in a selection of countries that currently have high levels of omicron BA.4/BA.5. To capture the latest trends, these charts use a rolling average of the past three full weeks of data. In any country, the genomic sequences may be concentrated within a particular outbreak, or may miss some outbreaks, so it is not necessarily representative of the country as a whole.

DC postpones second monkeypox vaccine citing shortage, increase in cases -The Washington, D.C., health department has announced that it has postponed administering a second dose of the monkeypox vaccine to residents, citing shortages and an increase in cases. “Given the rapid increase in monkeypox cases, and the very limited supply of vaccine, DC Health has decided the most urgent priority is providing first doses of vaccine to high-risk residents,” the deprtment said in an emailed message sent to residents on Monday.The department said the decision was based on seeing the one-dose vaccine distribution strategy being used in New York City, Canada and the United Kingdom, saying that the single dose has provided effective protection against the virus for at least six months. “Using this single-dose strategy, DC Health will be able to vaccinate more people at risk and slow the spread of monkeypox in the community more quickly,” the email read. “Everyone who has received a first dose of vaccine will be offered a second dose, but just not at this time.” The department added that limited second dose appointments will be available for those who have weakened immune systems caused by diseases such as HIV infection, lupus, rheumatoid arthritis or cancer.

Monkeypox Caseload in U.S. Approaches World’s Highest – WSJ --The U.S. has reported about 3,600 confirmed or suspected monkeypox cases, federal data showed, while vaulting near the top of the list of countries with the most known infections since the onset of the global health emergency.The rise in cases comes as the U.S. expands testing capacity, broadening the ability to spot new infections, but also as the global outbreak continues to grow. Some public-health experts said rising transmission heightens the chances a broader population will face the risk of infections as the opportunity to slow and potentially stop the outbreak is fading.

These are the states with the highest monkeypox cases relative to population – In the U.S., there have been a total of 2,891 monkeypox cases reported, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). It has been detected in 44 states and the District of Columbia. Some of the states with the highest number of cases include New York, California, Illinois and Florida. Below we will break down some of the numbers according to total population of each state or territory. Washington, D.C., has the highest case rate by population. With 110 cases and a population of less than 690,000, monkeypox has been detected in about 0.016 percent of residents. Next highest is New York state, which leads the overall number of cases with 900 reported cases. And with a population of more than 20 million, that makes the case rate by population about 0.0045 percent. Georgia follows with monkeypox detected in about 0.002 percent of the population, with a total of 211 cases and a population of 10.7 million. The next several states:

• Illinois: 0.0019 percent (238 cases, about 12.8 million people)
• Maryland: 0.0011 percent (71 cases, about 6.2 million people)
• Florida: 0.0011 percent (247 cases, about 21.5 million people)
• Massachusetts: 0.0011 percent (79 cases, about 7 million people)
• California: 0.0009 percent (356 cases, about 39.5 million people)

U.S. spots first monkeypox case in a pregnant woman as cases climb - The U.S. has spotted its first case of monkeypox this year in a pregnant woman, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention officials said over the weekend. The baby was delivered safely and both are "doing well."Pregnant women are among those the agency warns may be "at especially increased risk for severe outcomes" from monkeypox. "There has been a case of a pregnant woman who delivered," the CDC's Dr. John Brooks told a webinar hosted by the Infectious Disease Society of America on Saturday.Brooks said the baby did not appear to have contracted the disease from their mom during the pregnancy, as has been reported during some previous outbreaks abroad. CDC officials said the newborn was given an infusion of immune globulin, an antibody treatment which the agency has permission from the Food and Drug Administration to deploy during monkeypox outbreaks. "That neonate received the IG prophylactically. And both mom and baby are doing well," said the CDC's Dr. Brett Petersen on the webinar. A CDC spokesperson did not return a request for comment on where the case in a pregnant mother was identified.News of the infection comes as the CDC's tally in the current outbreak has reached 3,487 nationwide across 45 states as well as the District of Columbia and Puerto Rico, as of Monday.The sum of American monkeypox cases is on pace to eclipse that of Spain's. The World Health Organization reported on Tuesday that Spain had the most cases of any nation, at 3,596 total.It also comes just days after health authorities confirmed the first two U.S. cases of monkeypox in children. Both of those children – a toddler in California and infant from the U.K. who was traveling through Washington, D.C. – are r eported to be faring well, despite being in the age group that has seen the worst mortality in previous monkeypox outbreaks abroad.

Sewage reveals spread of monkeypox virus - Researchers are once again turning to the nation’s sewers to track and confirm the spread of a contagious virus — but this time, it’s monkeypox. Stanford University researchers have been monitoring wastewater for Covid-19 at 10 treatment plants in western California for the past two years, including sites in Silicon Valley, Sacramento, Palo Alto and several other cities in California’s Bay Area. In June, they added the monkeypox virus to their assay. What they found: confirmation of the virus at almost every site. “We have seen it in almost all the places where we work,” said Alexandria Boehm, a Stanford professor of civil and environmental engineering. “When we detect it in the wastewater, it means there’s at least one person in that area that’s contributing to the wastewater that’s infected with monkeypox,” Boehm added. “The fact that we’re detecting it in all these different locations suggests monkeypox is around, and we can’t say how many people have monkeypox, but it’s not confined to a small location in the Bay Area.” Boehm and her colleagues confirmed the presence of genetic material from the monkeypox virus — but not the live virus — at every wastewater treatment site except for the University of California, Davis. The most frequent occurrence of the viral material, she said, occurred at two wastewater treatment plants in San Francisco, as well as in San Jose, which serves about 1.5 million people. The researchers have been collecting samples daily for the past 18 months as part of Stanford’s Sewer Coronavirus Alert Network, or SCAN, the only group publishing data on monkeypox in the nation’s wastewater.

Monkeypox emergencies declared in San Francisco, New York - San Francisco and the state of New York declared public health emergencies Thursday amid the growing monkeypox outbreak, the latest in escalating measures in response to the rapidly spreading virus.The action by two of the hardest-hit areas comes after the World Health Organization declared a global emergency this past weekend and as the Biden administration weighs a national emergency declaration.More than 40 percent of the nation’s confirmed 4,907 monkeypox caseshave been reported in California and New York.San Francisco Mayor London Breed (D) announced a local public health emergency Thursday, noting that cases of monkeypox had nearly doubled, to 261, in a week. She said the move w ould mobilize resources, accelerate emergency planning and allow for future spending to be reimbursed by the state and federal governments.California state Sen. Scott Wiener (D), who had called for the emergency declaration, said the decision would make it easier to expand testing and vaccines and pressure the federal government to take the outbreak more seriously.After the state of New York recorded more than 1,200 cases, State Health Commissioner Mary T. Bassett on Thursday declared an imminent threat to public health, retroactive to June 1.“This declaration means that local health departments engaged in response and prevention activities will be able to access additional State reimbursement, after other Federal and State funding sources are maximized, to protect all New Yorkers and ultimately limit the spread of monkeypox in our communities,” Bassett said in a news release. Monkeypox infections result in an illness that lasts several weeks with symptoms including fever, swollen lymph nodes and a rash that can spread throughout the body. No U.S. deaths have been recorded, but some patients have reported intense pain from lesions.

Doctors say search for monkeypox cases needs to look beyond men who have sex with men - - The man came to an urgent care clinic in New York with red bumps on his skin in an area where he had a fair amount of hair. The doctor at the clinic diagnosed the bumps as folliculitis, an infection of the hair follicles. The clinician prescribed antibiotics and sent the man, who is in his 30s, on his way. At home, he continued to help his wife with their five children, one of whom is a newborn. Despite antibiotics, the bumps spread beyond the first pustules on his groin to his palms, arms, legs and face. About four days after his initial trip to the doctor, he got a fever and went back to the urgent care clinic for a second look. The doctor at the clinic consulted with Dr. Daniel Griffin, an infectious disease specialist at Columbia University Medical Center, who advised testing for monkeypox.A few days later, that test came back positive. "It didn't seem to set off any alarms, and I think part of that was that this is a happily married man, works in an office. He had no reported risk factors that would have raised someone's concern, which is unfortunate," said Griffin, who is now treating the man and got permission to share his story. The man declined to be interviewed. The US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention says that 99% of monkeypox transmission is happening between men who have sex with men, and there's no doubt that this continues to be a heavily affected community. But some infectious disease experts feel that the focus on this population may be leading clinicians to discount the signs of monkeypox in others. Monkeypox is not a sexually transmitted disease, but it can spread through the kind of close contact that happens in sexual and other intimate situations. In the United States and other countries, it has exploded among sexually active gay and bisexual men. At a news briefing Friday, public health officials stressed that few cases have been diagnosed in people outside the community of men who have sex with men, and even those outside cases have been related or adjacent. The first two children in the US who were recently diagnosed with monkeypox, for example, are believed to have contracted their infections through household spread.Separately, in a call on Saturday to educate doctors about monkeypox, Dr. John Brooks, chief medical officer for the CDC's monkeypox response, said there had been a case of monkeypox in a pregnant woman in the United States. Monkeypox can cross the placenta during pregnancy and infect babies in the womb. Brooks said the woman had delivered her baby and the child does not appear to have been infected. The baby was given protective antibodies called immunoglobulin as a precaution, and both mom and baby are now doing well, he said.

Monkeypox: Asia on high alert as cases reported from India to Japan - Countries across Asia are on high alert for monkeypox, screening travelers and scrambling teams of medics, as they report their first cases of the virus, now identified as a global health emergency by the World Health Organization (WHO). Japanese authorities on Monday announced the first detected case of monkeypox in the country -- a Tokyo resident in his 30s who had returned from Europe in mid-July. The man had developed fatigue followed by a fever, rash and headache, Health Ministry officials told reporters. He is currently receiving treatment in hospital and was "in a stable condition," officials added, declining to reveal further details about the patient, including his nationality. Initial symptoms of monkeypox infection include fever, headache, swelling of the lymph nodes, back pain, muscle aches and lack of energy, according to WHO. The disease later progresses into a rash and lesions that can blister and scab over all over the body -- usually lasting two to four weeks. Antiviral treatments and vaccines already exist for monkeypox, including those used in the eradication of smallpox, according to WHO. Japan's first identified case comes after its Foreign Ministry this week urged travelers to exercise caution regarding the disease. Officials said clinical studies into treatment and preventive measures have been launched, and vaccine shots administered to frontline medical workers in Tokyo.

Toxins bill set to expand care for veterans exposed to Agent Orange - Tens of thousands of Vietnam-era veterans stand to benefit as Congress nears the finish line on massive legislation to expand health coverage for those exposed to toxins during their military service. The Sgt. 1st Class Heath Robinson Honoring Our PACT Act — which is mainly aimed at expanding care to veterans exposed to toxic burn pits — also expands care to veterans who were exposed to Agent Orange outside of Vietnam. The provisions are a win for veterans advocacy groups, who say that the bill expands a narrow understanding of exposure to the herbicide, which has been linked to a variety of illnesses. “Agent Orange did not pick and choose … it affected everybody everywhere it was used,” said Patrick Murray, director of national legislative service at Veterans of Foreign Wars. “We think this is just correcting something that should have been done years ago, and we’re very grateful,” he added. The House most recently passed the PACT Act on July 13 by a vote of 342-88, about a month after the Senate passed the bill by a bipartisan 84-14 vote. The upper chamber must pass the measure again, as the House version of the bill includes technical changes from the measure passed last month. The bill then heads to President Biden’s desk, where he is expected to sign it. Among its provisions, the bill would expand the Department of Veterans Affairs’ (VA) presumptions of service-connected illness related to Agent Orange exposure for those who were exposed in Thailand, Cambodia, Laos, Guam, American Samoa and Johnston Atoll. Veterans who were deployed in Vietnam were first granted presumed coverage for Agent Orange-related illnesses in 1991 under the Agent Orange Act. Agent Orange was the most-used herbicide during the Vietnam War, where it was deployed to clear out forests and vegetation that could be used by enemy forces. The U.S. also used the herbicide along the Ho Chi Minh Trail, which connected northern and southwest Vietnam via military transport routes through Laos and Cambodia. The herbicide was also used in Thailand to clear jungle around military bases. Murray said that over time, the herbicide became a “quick fix” anytime vegetation needed to be cleared in areas not in Vietnam, leading it to be used in places where it wasn’t necessary, like Guam and American Samoa. “Places in Vietnam, where maybe you did need that expedited measure done, that’s one thing,” Murray said. “But in American Samoa, there was no enemy that we needed to identify immediately. It was just, ‘This will get a job done.’” After use of Agent Orange was banned in the early 1970s, remaining batches were taken to Johnston Atoll — a U.S. controlled island 700 miles southeast of Hawaii — where they were later destroyed, according to the Aspen Institute. The VA presumes that about two dozen types of illness are caused by exposure to Agent Orange, meaning that exposed veterans who have been diagnosed with those conditions don’t have to prove their ailments are related to military service.

EPA needs funding and staffing restored for any environmental justice -- For the past three years, the Valero Houston Refinery hasn’t gone a single quarter without committing a significant violation of the Clean Air Act. Year after year, as toxic air pollution has wafted through Manchester — a predominantly Hispanic, low-income neighborhood across the street — the facility has racked up a long list of violation notices from state regulators, but that’s done little to actually stop the onslaught.“We always voice concerns about non-enforcement,” said Juan Parras, executive director of Texas Environmental Justice Advocacy Services, who has advocated for Manchester and other communities along the Houston Ship Channel for more than 20 years. “Even when there is enforcement, the penalty is so ridiculously low that it doesn’t pressure the industry to clean up,” he said. The Valero Houston Refinery is just one of 485 facilities across the country with “high priority violations” of the Clean Air Act that have been left unaddressed through formal enforcement actions. Those violations could include operating without a permit or not using the best available technology to control emissions, among other infractions. At the federal level, EPA’s Office of Enforcement and Compliance Assurance is responsible for enforcing environmental laws. The division runs programs to assist companies with compliance, carries out investigations into suspected violations, issues penalties, and refers the more severe violations to the Department of Justice for prosecution. But for the past decade, Congress has steadily chipped away at the enforcement division’s funding and staffing levels. Since 2011, enforcement funding has fallen by nearly 30 percent once adjusted for inflation. The division currently has 713 fewer staffers than it did back then — a decrease of about 28 percent. As a result, the number of inspections, investigations, and civil and criminal cases the division initiates each year has plummeted, too. There’s a backlog of violations that the EPA hasn’t taken enforcement action on, and there are likely many more that the agency doesn’t even know about because investigators aren’t examining the data companies report or getting out into the field as often.

EPA preps cyber rule for water sector - EPA is poised to announce a new rule that would require states to oversee more than 1,000 water utilities’ cybersecurity plans, according to a top White House official.Anne Neuberger, deputy national security adviser for cyber and emerging technology, said at an event hosted by the Center for a New American Security yesterday that EPA will be issuing a rule “shortly” to expand the regular reviews to include cybersecurity as threats at facilities mount across the country.The water sector has seen a surge of cybersecurity attacks in recent months and years, including a high-profile event in Oldsmar, Fla., last year when a hacker gained control of a water utility’s operating systems (Energywire, Feb. 10, 2021).That event and others have revealed vulnerabilities as threats continue to grow for a sprawling sector that oversees itself.“We are behind other countries in setting cybersecurity requirements for the critical elements of infrastructure — the most significant water, power, pipelines [and] hospitals in the country — as well as the technology that crosses all of them,” Neuberger said.Neuberger said it is important for Congress to make sure that EPA has the authority and resources to handle the issue.“We need the Hill to ensure that those authorities are clear so that as threats continue to evolve … as [systems are] modernized, to ensure sensors are added to ensure cybersecurity is baked in,” she added.When asked whether a rule is in the works, Tim Carroll, a spokesperson for EPA, said the agency is moving forward with a regulatory approach to improve cybersecurity at water systems that could affect safe drinking water, and that the agency has partnered with states to identify ways to help utilities. “Recent events have highlighted the importance of this effort, and the agency is taking a multi-pronged approach in close partnership and coordination across the federal government and in collaboration with state agencies,” Carroll said.

Common Medications May Increase the Dangers of Heat Waves --Tens of millions of Americans take one or more medications. And many common prescription and over-the-counter medicines, such as certain antidepressants, antipsychotics, antihistamines, and drugs used to treat diabetes and high blood pressure, may reduce the body’s ability to maintain a safe temperature.The drugs may interfere with the body’s internal thermostat or impair sweating, according to a 2021 review in The Lancet, a peer-reviewed medical journal.Kenneth Mueller, a pharmacist and clinical instructor at the Emory School of Nursing, says some medications can affect a person’s perception of heat and internal thermostat. And they can alter the body’s ability to redirect blood flow to the skin, a key way that it cools itself.In hot weather, those side effects could increase the chance of life-threatening consequences, like severe dehydration or heat stroke. “Doctors and pharmacists should warn patients about the potential dangers of [these] medicines during extreme heat events,” CDC spokesperson Bert Kelly wrote in an email.Antidepressants like selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors, or SSRIs, may increase sweating, increasing the risk of dehydration.Others, like tricyclic antidepressants, or TCAs, may decrease sweating, making it harder to cool off.Antipsychotics may impair sweating and alter the body’s internal thermostat.Anticholinergic drugs, a large category of medications commonly used to treat an array of conditions such as urinary incontinence, overactive bladder, allergies, and Parkinson’s disease, may interfere with sweating and the body’s internal thermostat. They may also reduce blood flow to the skin.Patients with heart disease may be prescribed multiple medicines, including diuretics and ACE inhibitors. Such drugs can cause dehydration, affect kidney function, and limit the body’s ability to redirect blood flow.Dehydration can increase the blood levels of some medications. Even slight increases can lead to toxic effects for certain drugs, such as lithium. These effects can range from tremors and weakness to agitation, confusion, and even death. And some diabetes medications, including insulin, can lose their effectiveness in hot weather.

Federal office focused on climate change and health has zero funding - A week after taking office, President Biden signed a sweeping executive order that established a new federal office focused on addressing the health consequences of climate change, which disproportionately affects poor communities and communities of color. 10 steps you can take to lower your carbon footprint The administration had grand plans for the office. For the first time, it would marshal the full powers of the federal government to help Americans sweltering under deadly heat waves, breathing in dangerous wildfire smoke, fleeing from massive flooding and struggling to access clean drinking water amid a historic drought parching the West. “Many climate and health calamities are colliding all at once,” Biden said at the time, adding, “Just like we need a unified national response to covid-19, we desperately need a unified national response to the climate crisis.” But nearly a year after the Department of Health and Human Services launched the Office of Climate Change and Health Equity, Congress has not provided any funding, forcing it to operate without any full-time staff at a time of worsening climate disasters across the country, according to interviews with four officials there. Nearly 1 in 3 Americans experienced a weather disaster last summer “Right now, it is an unfunded office,” said Adm. Rachel Levine, the U.S. assistant secretary for health. “What we really need is funding to have a permanent staff.” In his budget plan released in March, Biden requested $3 million to support eight full-time positions in the climate office. The government funding package that passed the House last week would deliver the full $3 million. So would the spending bill that the Senate Appropriations Committee unveiled on Thursday. Advertisement However, the government spending bills that lawmakers released last year also included $3 million for the climate office — until that money was stripped from the legislation at the last minute as part of an agreement brokered behind the scenes. That has fostered apprehension among officials in the climate office. “Funding isn’t final until it’s final,” said a Health and Human Services official, who spoke on the condition of anonymity because of a lack of authorization to comment publicly.

Heat Waves Sweep the Northeast Over Sweltering Weekend - Scorching temperatures swept the Northeast on Sunday in the region’s first prolonged heat wave of the summer, with a record-breaking five straight days of triple-digit temperatures in Newark and blistering heat in Boston; Providence, R.I.; and Manchester, N.H. Other parts of the country also sweltered, with Oklahoma enduring temperatures that have topped 100 degrees in nine of the past 11 days. The baking heat underscored the sobering reality that such dangerous temperatures are becoming a summertime norm for the United States and elsewhere, with heat waves, wildfires and droughts disrupting day-to-day life across the globe. Heat waves in the United States jumped from an average of two per year in the 1960s to six per year by the 2010s. The last seven years have been the warmest in the history of accurate worldwide records. Image The Northeast heat surge, which hit some of the country’s most densely populated corridors, sent residents scrambling for relief. In New York City, temperatures stayed just shy of record highs Sunday afternoon, hitting 94 in Central Park, as lines formed at the city’s pools, despite many facing lifeguard shortages. William Jimenez, 59, brought his 13-year-old son to the Crotona Park pool in the Bronx early in the day, knowing that the spot would be mobbed later. “The weather is getting hotter and hotter,” he said. “The best thing is to be in the pool and the park.” Elsewhere in the Bronx, many streets turned into asphalt water parks, thanks to open fire hydrants spilling onto sidewalks. In several spots wooden planks were extended into the street for people to avoid the small rivers. In Newark, the temperature reached 102 degrees, a record for the date and the fifth day of above 100-degree readings, the longest recorded streak for the city. Providence hit 98 degrees, breaking its previous record of 94 in 1987, and Boston reached a sweltering 100 degrees, breaking its earlier record of 98 in 1933. Philadelphia hit 99 degrees, breaking its record of 98 from 2011, and Manchester, N.H., recorded a temperature of 97, topping its previous high on the day of 95. From Boston to Philadelphia to St. Louis, major cities declared heat emergencies and advisories that lasted throughout the weekend, some triggering services to keep residents cool, like opening libraries as cooling centers. In notoriously swampy Washington, D.C., where temperatures hovered in the 90s, officialsextended opening hours for some of the city’s pools, and Kansas City, Mo., released tips on Twitter for residents to keep heat from damaging the foundations of their homes. Philadelphia, which declared a heat emergency starting on Thursday, halted a plan to shut off water to customers with delinquent bills, citing the heat wave.

Demand for electricity soars in heat wave; pressure put on New England power surplus – Hartford Courant - As a heat wave bakes the Northeast, demand is soaring for electricity that’s powering air conditioners, pressing New England’s “relatively small” electricity surplus, according to the region’s grid operator. ISO on Friday reported a capacity of 26,690 megawatts and an excess of 95 megawatts. The capacity is down slightly from Thursday and the surplus fell from 293 megawatts. However, peaking plants that step in when needed will assure enough energy is available, said a spokesman for ISO-New England. In addition, power plants can count on operating reserves of about 2,600 megawatts, he said. Peak demand was forecast Friday at 23,750, up slightly from 23,318 megawatts Thursday. Though high, it’s not among the top 10 days when demand was greater on several July and August days in 2005, 2006, 2010, 2011 and 2013, according to ISO. The highest summer peak demand was 28,130 megawatts on Aug. 2, 2006. ISO says if generator or transmission line outages were to occur, the grid operator could call on resources held in reserve, import emergency power from neighboring regions, ask businesses and residents to conserve electricity or put in place emergency procedures. “Climate change has caused weather to become more volatile and less predictable, increasing the potential for system operators to resort to these actions,” ISO warned. ISO’s summer forecast was for 26,416 megawatts, during “above average weather,” with an available capacity expected of 31,000 megawatts. Dan Dolan, president of the New England Power Generators Association, said so-called “fast start resources,” peaking plants that are used at peak times would be brought into service in the event of an extended heat wave pushing demand to as much as 28 megawatts. The availability of power despite a grinding heat wave contrasts with last winter when ISO warned that power outages were possible if an extended cold snap gripped the region and fuel supplies were pinched as demand spiked.

Record heat leads to more air conditioning, creating a depressing loop --The record summer heat scorching the U.S. and Europe is illustrating the drastic need for action on climate change, even as the high temperatures are likely to increase the production of energy and greenhouse gasses contributing to global warming. The heat is killing people, energy grids are getting overwhelmed, and more people in more places will be looking for air conditioning in the future, creating an insidious and depressing loop. “Most of the great bulk of our greenhouse gas emissions come from consuming energy, mostly to make electricity,” The extreme heat, in turn, “greatly increases the need for air conditioners, which are a significant energy consumer,” he added. In the U.S., more than half of the states were under heat advisories as of last Thursday morning, with highs hovering around 115 in Texas and Oklahoma. Across the Atlantic Ocean, the British town of Coningsby in Lincolnshire recorded an all-time high of 104.5 degrees Fahrenheit on Tuesday, breaking a record set only hours before of 104.4 degrees in London. Communities in France, Spain and Portugal battled high temperatures and wildfires. On both sides of the ocean, the high temperatures bring death and destruction. At least 500 people died in Oregon, Washington, Idaho and southern Canada last summer during a scorching heat wave in the Pacific Northwest. Such waves are expected to become more common because of climate change, and the lack of action to slow it. Extreme heat means increased demand for power generation, which is “problematic,” because demand spikes specifically for gas for power generation in Europe over the summer, The unprecedented heat, she said, is “making it difficult to refill the natural gas storage facilities which is what they’re trying to do right now in order to prepare for winter, which is what they’re really worried about.” “The heatwaves that we’re having, that are becoming stronger and more frequent and are a sign of climate change… they’re something that science has told us was coming and they are no surprise,” Gross said. However, she added, the greater demand for electricity generation both increases emission from power generation and strains regional grids, particularly in Texas, where the statewide grid has already been unprepared for extreme winter weather. “It’s a bit of an unfortunate feedback loop that when it’s hotter, we need more power,” she said. “Ideally, people will look at this and be like, Oh, this is what the climate scientists expected.”

New Jersey Asks Residents To Reduce Water Usage Over Drought Fears - New Jersey Governor Phil Murphy's office asked residents and businesses to conserve water amid a persistent heatwave, where some metro areas cracked over 100 degrees Fahrenheit for five consecutive days through Sunday. "Now is the time for New Jersey to be especially mindful of water usage and proactively moderate our consumption," said Commissioner of Environmental Protection Shawn M. LaTourette."Although our reservoirs and other indicators are healthy, persistent hot and dry weather coupled with the high water demands of summer can quickly impact water supply. Simple steps, like reducing lawn and landscape watering, go a long way in preserving our water supplies and avoiding the necessity of significant restrictive measures," LaTourette continued. For the last three months, rainfall has been 11% to 25% below average in the state's south and north -- the combination of below-average precipitation plus excessive temperatures paints an ominous outlook. The US Drought Monitor website shows a considerable amount of the state is "abnormally dry."

Water bans become more common in Massachusetts as drought worsens - Towns in the Boston area are running low on water. The signs of drought are just about everywhere - front lawns are torched, reservoirs are low, and the lack of rain is forcing more towns and cities to impose water bans. "We are at a critical stage where we need people to conserve. No outdoor water whatsoever," said Pembroke Town Manager Bill Chenard. "We can pump about 1.8 million gallons a day. We have tanks that store 1.55 million gallons a day, but any time you exceed the 1.6 to 1.8, you're drawing down those tanks. When those tanks come down, you start to lose pressure in your system." In Natick, horticulturalist and WBZ-TV meteorologist Dave Epstein sees plants drying out and leaves turning. He said it's important to follow your town's water ban while protecting your investment. Burlington Department of Public Works Director John Sanchez said The Mill Pond Reservoir is extremely low. "This is one of the worst years we've had in a while," he said. "Normally, the island is an island, and now it's more like a peninsula. You can actually walk to it." In some towns, like Pembroke, some homeowners are on a well system, so water bans do not apply to them. However, all those on town water must adhere to local water restrictions or face a fine. "It's really critical. We want to make sure we have water in case of a fire, so they can hook up to a fire hydrant, so please turn it off," Chenard said.

NASA satellite images show how much Lake Mead has receded since 2000 --New satellite images from NASA show Lake Mead’s dramatically shrinking shoreline and how parts of the once-sprawling reservoir have mineralized over the past two decades.Lake Mead, the largest reservoir in the nation, sits at just 27% capacity, its lowest point since April 1937 when it was first being filled, according to NASA.The lake, on the Nevada-Arizona border, is nearly unrecognizable from how it looked just 22 years ago, according to photos released by NASA Wednesday.An image taken from space on July 6, 2000, shows the lake full and a deep shade of blue. Another photo, taken July 3, shows a lighter color, meaning areas formerly underwater have mineralized, a phenomenon known as a “bathtub ring” effect. At the end of July 2000, around the time of the first satellite image, the water elevation at the Hoover Dam was at 1,199.97 feet above sea level. By July 18 this year, around the time of the second image, it dropped to 1,041.30 feet, according to data from the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation.Another photo from 2021 shows the Virgin River, which connects to the Overton Arm of Lake Mead, mineralized. The year before, the river was completely filled with water.The lake is drying up due to climate change and severe drought, according to NASA.“The largest reservoir in the United States supplies water to millions of people across seven states, tribal lands, and northern Mexico. It now also provides a stark illustration of climate change and a long-term drought that may be the worst in the U.S. West in 12 centuries,” NASA said.The lake has a maximum capacity of 1,220 feet in elevation, a level last approached in 1983 and 1999, according to NASA. Today, the lake is perilously close to dead pool status, when the reservoir dips below 895 feet and is so low that water cannot flow downstream from the Hoover Dam. However, experts say that's a possibility still years away.

Third set of human remains found in Lake Mead -National Park Service (NPS) rangers found a third set of human remains Monday afternoon in Lake Mead as the nation’s largest reservoir continues to dry up amid a years-long extreme drought.NPS said in a release that rangers had discovered the remains at Swim Beach in the Lake Mead National Recreation Area after receiving a witness report around 4:30 p.m. Monday.Rangers have set up a perimeter around the site and the Clark County Medical Examiner was called to determine the cause of death.A 20-year megadrought has dried up Lake Mead, which straddles Arizona and Nevada, plummeting its water levels to historic lows.New NASA satellite photos show the lake has shrunk to just 27 percent capacity, the lowest level since April 1937 when the reservoir was being filled.Lake Mead, which is fed by the Colorado River, helps supply water to 25 million people in Arizona, Nevada, California and parts of Mexico. The drought drying up the Colorado River has been fueled by climate change and mismanagement of water resources.The dwindling lake has revealed some strange findings, including a World War II-era boat. In May, NPS reported they found two sets of human remains inside Lake Mead, including a barrel containing the remains of a person who police believe was killed in the ’70s or ’80s.

Drought-Stricken West Looks to Mississippi River to Solve Water Woes -- With the long-term drought, or essentially the change in climate, and steady decline of water supplies on the Colorado River, residents in states such as California are increasingly suggesting why can't we pipe water to western dams much like we pipe oil now? This isn't a new debate, but it's a topic that's going to come up more and more as water levels at Lake Mead and Lake Powell continue to shrink. This past weekend I received an email about an editorial in the Waterways Journal, "Drought Revives Mississippi River Pipe Dreams." The editorial noted the debate going on through columns and letters to the editor in the Palm Springs, Calif., newspaper over the possibility of piping water from the Mississippi River to Lake Powell in northern Arizona. Looking at nothing more than Google Maps, getting water the Mississippi River to Lake Powell is 1,459-mile journey from Baton Rouge, La. Debate is heightening as states in the Colorado River are proposing cuts in water use for next year to keep Powell and Mead from reaching critically low levels -- points at which the Glen Canyon Dam could stop generating hydropower. Right now, the Bureau of Reclamation pegs it at nearly a one-in-four chance (23%) that Lake Powell is not generating power in summer 2024. The two dams also provide drinking water to about 40 million people and irrigate an estimated 5.5 million acres of agriculture as well. As DTN's Bryce Anderson noted last month, states in the Colorado Basin need to cut between 2 million and 4 million acre-feet of water usage in 2023 to protect the Lake Mead and Lake Powell reservoirs. That amounts to almost 25 percent. The back-and-forth in the Palm Springs Desert Sun op-ed page has continued all month about the feasibility of diverting water from the Mississippi River. The column highlighted in the Waterways Journal argued that Louisiana and Mississippi don't need all of the water flowing down the Mississippi River. "All it does is cause flooding and massive tax expenditures to repair and strengthen dikes." Noting about 4.5 million gallons per second of Mississippi River flow past the Old River Control Structure in Louisiana, the letter writer explains diverting 250,000 gallons per second would alleviate the low water levels at both Lake Powell and Lake Mead in a year and eight months. The letter was written by Don Siefkes of San Leandro, Calif., who also happens to be the leader of the E100 Ethanol Group championing ethanol usage. "We build a California aqueduct that saved Southern California and a crude oil pipeline across Alaska that were far more difficult than this proposal," Siefkes wrote. https://www.desertsun.com/… The responses have been coming ever since. Some Midwesterners and others have written "less than friendly replies," noted another letter to the editor the Desert Sun that advocated for desalinization of water out of the Pacific Ocean. Still, the Palm Springs paper isn't the only one where people are weighing in. In letter to the San Diego Union-Tribune about the federal government's push to cut water usage, noting "these cuts would be long-term, and not at all in the best interests of the region. "An alternative and better, long-term solution would be to supplement the Colorado with water piped in from annually-flooded areas in the Midwest, the South and the East. We pipe oil across the country, so there's no reason why we can't pipe water."

State climatologist warns of ‘flash droughts’ as heat wave fries Oregon – OPB - With many parts of Oregon seeing temperatures in the upper 90s and beyond this week, the state climatologist says there’ll be definite intensifying of existing drought conditions. It’s the first major sustained hot spell of the year, with the sun bearing down on areas already suffering historically dry and arid conditions. Larry O’Neill is an associate professor at Oregon State University and the state climatologist. He told KLCC that when these kinds of heat waves hit in the middle to near end of summer, there can be formations known as “flash droughts.” “And what a flash drought is, it’s basically a rapid drying of any remaining moisture in the soil and plants, and just the landscape in general,” explained O’Neill. “And so those conditions can lead to a quick intensification of drought conditions. And so we’re monitoring that very closely right now.” O’Neill says areas most susceptible to flash droughts are the foothills of the Cascades, and then areas of Douglas County, namely Roseburg down into Medford. The roughly weeklong heat wave hitting parts of Oregon could also be one for the record books. O’Neill says it’s not so much the intensity of the temperatures, as it is the duration that makes these “very interesting times.” “The fact that it’s forecast to occur over 5 or 6 days and then gradually taper off… if that forecast holds, this’ll be one of the longest heat waves in the Pacific Northwest in our historical record…

Two Different Droughts in Nebraska, Missouri Push Livestock Producers to Edge - Midwestern drought and its devastating effects are spreading. Each week, states such as Nebraska and Missouri are seeing more counties affected by dry weather. The drought means more bad news for cow-calf producers, who already have seen higher feed prices. With less forage available for grazing, cattle producers will be searching for other sources of feed. DTN Ag Meteorologist John Baranick said the droughts in Nebraska and Missouri are as different as each state is from each other. In Nebraska, drought has been a constant concern for all of 2022. For the western two-thirds of the state, drought has largely been maintained or gotten worse, he said. After a winter with little moisture, the drought has been growing through this summer, although parts of northeastern Nebraska have seen some improvement and the southeastern part of the state has largely avoided drought. Precipitation in that part of the state has come with some severe weather, but at least the area has had soil moisture, he said. "Maps of soil moisture are pretty abysmal, and with the combined heat, drought is more likely to expand if showers do not come back sometime soon," Baranick said. Meanwhile, a flash drought has developed in Missouri over the last few months. This has led to dry conditions developing quickly. The southern two-thirds of Missouri was completely devoid of dryness or drought conditions as late as June 7, but dryness and drought have quickly developed to engulf the region with at least abnormally dry conditions (D0 drought). A couple of counties in far southern Missouri have turned to extreme drought (D3 drought) in just the last five weeks, he said. Baranick said heat has certainly been the most important factor, but so has the lack of rainfall. Over the same time, southern areas of Missouri have seen less than 2 inches of rain (and in some parts almost none at all) when, normally, this part of the state sees 4 to 5 inches of rain. "Less than half of normal rainfall combined with triple-digit high temperatures is the cause for the current drought scenario," he said.

Drought impacts Advancing Rapidly | Beef Magazine - The July Cattle Report confirmed that the cumulative effects of drought that past two years have accelerated liquidation of the beef cattle herd. The July 1 inventory of all cattle and calves was 98.8 million head, down 2.0 percent year over year. The beef cow herd decreased by 2.4 percent year over year, a decline of 750,000 head from last year to the current total of 30.35 million head. From the recent peak in 2018, the July beef cow inventory has declined by 6.3 percent, or a total of 2.05 million head. The July inventory of beef replacement heifers was down by 3.5 percent year over year. Feeder cattle supplies are estimated from the sum of inventories of other heifers and steers (over 500 pounds) plus calves (under 500 pounds) minus cattle on feed. The estimated July 1 feeder supply was down 2.7 percent from last year. The monthly Cattle on feed report puts July 1 feedlot inventories at 11.34 million head, a scant 0.4 percent above last year. July, along with every other month this year has had record monthly inventories, but the year over year gap is declining. June feedlot marketings were up 2.0 percent year over year. Placements in June were down 2.4 percent from one year ago. This is the fourth consecutive month of lower feedlot placements. In the past two months, placements have consisted of increased numbers of cattle under 700 pounds with sharper decreases in placements over 700 pounds leading to an overall decline in placements. Placements would have fallen faster without the lightweight placements. Increased lightweight placements now mean that fewer cattle will be available for placement later. The July Cattle on Feed report also included the quarterly breakdown of steers and heifers on feed, with steer inventories down 1.1 percent from last year but heifers on feed up 2.9 percent year over year. Heifer slaughter is up 3.9 percent for the year to date and this July heifer inventory means that heifer slaughter will continue large in the second half of the year. There are indications that drought impacts have accelerated sharply in the southern plains in July. The percent of Oklahoma pastures and ranges rated as poor to very poor jumped from 18 percent in early July to 34 percent in the July 18 Crop Progress report. Cattle producers are destocking at a rapid rate as pasture conditions deteriorate rapidly. The volume of feeder cattle in Oklahoma auctions the past two weeks is up 24 percent year over year. It appears that calves are being weaned and marketed early.

Ranchers Are Selling Off Their Cattle In Unprecedented Numbers Due To The Drought, And That Has Enormous Implications For 2023 - Thanks to the horrific drought which is absolutely devastating ranching in the Southwest, ranchers are now in “panic mode” and are selling off their cattle at an unprecedented rate. In fact, some are choosing to sell off their entire herds because they feel like they don’t have any other options. In recent days, seemingly endless lines of trailers waiting to drop off cattle for auction have gone viral all over social media. Everybody is talking about how they have never seen anything like this before, and if the drought in the Southwest persists the lines could soon get even longer. In the short-term, this is going to help to stabilize meat prices. But in the long-term the size of the U.S. cattle herd will steadily become much smaller, and that has very serious implications for our ability to feed ourselves in 2023 and beyond. North Texas has become the epicenter for this rapidly growing crisis. Thanks to the drought, there simply is not enough grass and not enough water, and so many ranchers have been forced to make some really tough decisions…North Texas ranchers are selling off cattle by the thousands as grass and water disappear during an expanding summer drought.Videos spread on social media Saturday and Sunday, showing trucks and trailers lined up for miles outside of livestock markets.At the Decatur Livestock Market, owner Kimberly Irwin said trucks were stacked a mile in each direction, eventually unloading more than 2,600 animals.For many of these ranchers, it is imperative that they get something for their animals while they still can.According to the USDA, the vast majority of the pasture and range land in the region is now in either “poor” or “very poor” condition…Grass has stopped growing with no rain and 100 degree temperatures. Grasshoppers have reportedly been destroying what’s available in some counties. Stock ponds are now starting to run low on water as well.The USDA released a report Monday showi ng 83% of pasture and range land is now considered to be in poor to very poor condition. Normally, many cattle ranchers would feed hay to their cattle under such circumstances, but the price of hay has absolutely skyrocketed over the past year…Prices for hay, which is widely used to feed cattle, were 56% higher in April than in 2021, according to a June report from the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City. Cattle producers are estimated to have lost money the past two months, according to a cost-and-return analysis from Iowa State University. So now even if you can find hay for sale it is usually so expensive that it is simply not economical. Without any other options that make sense, some cattle ranchers in Texas have actually decided to go ahead and sell their entire herds…

August Weather Forecast Reminiscent of July -A brief break in the summertime hot-and-dry pattern is settling in this week with a couple of cold fronts bringing cooler air from Canada along with periods of showers. The southern Corn Belt is enjoying widespread rainfall the morning of July 26 and it is heavy in some spots. A few of these locations are still in some category of drought. Farther south across southern Missouri, Oklahoma, Texas, portions of Kansas, and most of the Delta, July has been a horrible month. Widespread heat with temperatures regularly eclipsing the 100-degree Fahrenheit mark and an almost complete lack of rain have increased drought dramatically. A three-class degradation in drought conditions has occurred for stretches of the region over the month. Some of these places are set to see some good rainfall through this coming weekend, but the drought has certainly taken its toll on crop conditions and damage likely has occurred. Selected states on the USDA's Crop Progress report as of July 24 show all the southern states I mentioned above have good-to-excellent corn ratings at 39% or lower. Missouri is the exception at 53% good to excellent as northern parts of the state have actually had very good rainfall so far this year to balance it out. A similar trend is found in soybeans, but August is the month to make or break that crop, so the concerns have not piled on quite as high just yet as they have for corn. Rains across these southern areas will be a blessing, but unfortunately for producers, they will not be sustained. A ridge of high pressure that had been across the middle of the country for most of July has split into two pieces, one in the Southeast and another in the West. In between, a trough has developed to bring in cooler air and bouts of showers. The portion of the ridge in the West is very strong and that will spread eastward across North America starting this weekend and continue through next week. Long-range models suggest there will be little break in the pattern through all of August. Like most areas in July, the ridge across the middle of the country should lead to higher heat across most of the country's growing regions and also drier conditions, relatively speaking. The overall effect for filling corn and pod-filling soybeans in the country should point to reduced yields. One caveat to this forecast is the potential for another disturbance to move through around the middle of the month similar to the one going through the North-Central U.S. this week. Thunderstorms associated with the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) that are moving around the equator have a tendency to affect the weather in North America depending on where they are located. The location of a wave of thunderstorms moving through northern South America is forecast to return to the same location around Aug. 10-15. The upper-air forecast over North America around that same time does have a trough moving through Canada at the same time. If that trough is a bit stronger, we could see cooler temperatures and more consistent rainfall moving through more of the Corn Belt, perhaps like we are seeing this week.

Brazil: Amazon deforestation up 20% last year — report -- Deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon increased by more than 20% last year according to a report released on Monday by environmental thinktank Mapbiomas.The Brazil-based organization made up of universities, NGOs and tech companies said there has been growing deforestation observed in all biomes and that over the course of three years, the deforested area reached 42,000 square kilometers — almost the equivalent landmass of the state of Rio de Janeiro.Mapbiomas said there had been 16,557 square kilometers of native vegetation lost during the course of 2021. According to the study's figures, deforestation was taking place at a rate of 189 hectares an hour.During the course of 2020 the area lost to deforestation was calculated to be 13,789 square kilometers."In the Amazon alone, 111.6 hectares were deforested per hour or 1.9 hectares per minute, which is equivalent to about 18 trees per second," the organization said.Land being cleared for agriculture was found to be the leading cause of deforestation with mining, urban expansions, and construction of wind and solar plants among the contributing factors.Researchers validated 69,796 "deforestation alerts" during the course of 2021. These "deforestation events" were evaluated on an individual basis, with a variety of factors taken into consideration, including data from protected areas and authorizations with data from protected areas. Deforestation was taking place on properties registered on the rural environmental register (CAR) and accounted for 77% of the deforested area which according to the study "means that in at least three-quarters of deforestation, it is possible to find a person responsible."Nearly 20,000 properties were found to be repeat offenders, pointing to a lack of law enforcement, the study suggested."To solve the problem of illegality, it is necessary to attack impunity — the risk of being penalized and held accountable for the illegal destruction of native vegetation must be real and properly perceived by environmental offenders," explained Tasso Azevedo, coordinator of MapBiomas.Azevedo said action was required on three fronts with the need to ensure that "all deforestation is detected and reported; all illegal deforestation receives accountability and punishment of offenders (e.g. fines, embargo); the offender does not benefit from the illegally deforested area and receives some type of penalty."

Heeding the heat: Desert regions may better inform the future of global temperate zones driven by climate change - When it comes to the world's climate, in the past decade, Earth keeps sending us its summer siren's call. Annually, it's mostly been a case of heeding the heat, and repeat. According to NASA, nineteen of the hottest years have occurred since 2000, with 2016 and 2020 tied for the hottest ever on record. This summer is already making worldwide headlines, with the UK scorching beyond 40 degrees Celsius (104.5 Fahrenheit) for the first time ever. More climate extremes are occurring. Earlier snowmelts affect the high-altitude areas, severe forest fires are increasing, while rain pulses, followed by dry periods, are becoming the norm. But if heat waves and severe droughts are trends that will continue to hold across the globe, what will the future bring to temperate forest and cropland regions of the world? Scientists are looking at the unique adaptations of desert life, which function by their own set of rules long considered to be unique to dry areas. Now, new research by an international team of scientists suggests that climate change is causing these "dryland mechanisms" to increasingly affect earth's wetter areas, such as temperate regions' croplands and forests. Spurred by a recent meeting of the European Ecological Federation, the team compiled a list of the unique rules of life driving dryland ecosystems. Currently, more than a third of the Earth's land area is drylands. Many of these key processes have been considered relevant only to arid regions, including:

• rapid cycling between wet and dry conditions that influence plant and animal activity,
• redistribution of water in soils by plant roots,
• and formation of living crusts on soil surfaces by microscopic organisms.

Overall, the team identified a dozen different dryland mechanisms affecting multiple processes, including vegetation distribution, plant growth, water flow, energy budget, carbon and nutrient cycling, and decomposition of dead material. "These dryland mechanisms are controlled by environmental factors, such as intense solar radiation, high temperatures, large bare patches between plants, and inconsistent availability of water," said Throop. "In the paper we present these 12 different dryland mechanisms that are really routine processes in drylands but aren't commonly found in wet systems," What's clear to the researchers is that a new, unprecedented pattern is emerging, one that was considered absent or insignificant in most biomes on Earth. These dryland mechanisms are now, with increasing frequency, occurring in temperate regions. In the future, these also will likely increase in frequency and become more relevant due to warmer, drier conditions from climate change.

US bakes in extreme heat as federal climate action flops -The U.S. is roasting under an extended heat wave, with 28 states experiencing heat warnings and most Americans exposed to temperatures higher than 90 degrees this past weekend. The deadly weather is severe on its own, but it’s also a sign of what’s to come as the planet heats up due to climate change. And the sweltering conditions highlight Congress’s inability to pass meaningful legislation to combat the issue. “We will see worse going forward simply because climate change will continue to make the planet warmer and warmer,” said Jonathan Overpeck, a climate scientist and dean of the University of Michigan’s School for Environment and Sustainability.Over the past few days, temperatures in much of the country hit triple digits. In Texas, record-breaking temperatures reached 115 degrees in Wichita Falls, with 110 hit in other cities in the state and in Oklahoma. Newark, N.J., also hit a new record at 102 degrees, with the temperature’s recorded at the city’s airport topping 100 for five days straight.Boston also hit 100 degrees on Sunday. The heat has been lethal in multiple locations. A person died from heat exposure in New York City on Saturday, while Dallas County, Texas, also reported a heat-related death last week. Maricopa County, Ariz., confirmed 12 heat-related deaths between July 10 and July 16, though it’s not clear whether the deaths actually occurred on those days or if they were just added to the state’s existing totals during that period. As of last week, Tulsa’s emergency medical services had responded to 85 heat-related illnesses — which can include heat exhaustion or stroke — so far this month. Sixty of those people were hospitalized. According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, 600 people in the U.S. each year are killed by extreme heat, though other studies put the figure much higher.A 2020 study looking at counties representing about 62 percent of the U.S. population found that in those alone, there were an average of 5,608 heat-attributed deaths each year between 1997 and 2006. Chris Uejio, a professor at Florida State University, said that heat can negatively impact the cardiovascular and respiratory systems as well as the kidneys and that research is emerging on its impacts on mental health and dizziness. The people most at risk typically include the elderly, people with preexisting conditions, those who are pregnant, infants and young children, the homeless, and those who can’t afford to pay for air conditioning and cooling, Uejio said.

Towns outside of Yosemite National Park evacuated as wildfires rage across California and Pacific Northwest -- Several rural communities in California’s Mariposa County near Yosemite National Park were evacuated as the Oak Fire grew from 1,600 to nearly 12,000 acres (650 to 4,900 hectares) on Saturday. The fire, which had zero percent containment as of Sunday, has so far burned or damaged at least 15 structures and threatens another 2,000, according to the California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection (Cal Fire). More than 6,000 people were ordered to leave their homes as a result of the explosive growth of the fire. No fatalities have been reported so far among the evacuees or the firefighters, but the structures that have burned down include homes of residents that have lived in the area for decades. At least one GoFundMe appeal has so far been set up to aid those who have lost virtually everything in the blaze. Pacific Gas & Electric (PG&E) has further reported that more than 2,600 homes and businesses have lost power as a result of the fire. According to the utility company’s website, they are “unable to access the affected equipment” and do not have an estimated time for when power will be restored. PG&E is notorious for having started the Camp Fire in 2018, after which it plead guilty to 84 felony counts of involuntary manslaughter because faulty company power lines caused the wholesale destruction of Paradise, California. The cause of the Oak Fire is still under investigation. The Oak Fire is the third major fire that has erupted near or in Yosemite this month. While the smaller Agua fire is now fully contained, the Washburn Fire has been raging in Yosemite National Park, the Sierra National Forest and the surrounding environment since July 7 and has burned nearly 5,000 acres (2,000 hectares) as of Sunday. The areas hit include the Mariposa Grove, which is located in the southern portion of Yosemite and is the largest sequoia grove in Yosemite. Most of the sequoias are over 2,000 years old and a loss of even a single one would be a tragic loss for the park’s ecology. Critical fire conditions have been rapidly intensifying over the last two months in other parts of the US and Canada. Elevated winds and dry thunderstorms have created conditions for one of the most intense fire seasons in years. On Sunday, the National Interagency Fire Center (NIFC) reported that 78 large fires and complexes are burning almost 2.5 million acres (1 million hectares) in 15 states. More than 8,300 wildland firefighters and support personnel are assigned to incidents across the country. So far in 2022, 37,904 wildfires have burned 5,559,857 acres (2,249,994 hectares) in the United States, a year-to-date record number of both fires and acres burned. Among the other current fires across North America, the Nohomin Creek Fire on the west side of the Fraser River, northwest of Lytton, British Columbia, has burned approximately 5,400 acres (2,200 hectares) since it was reported Thursday, July 14. It is currently classified by the Canadian province’s wildfire service as “out of control” and threatens a repeat of the disaster last year, when the Lytton Creek Fire burned more than 206,000 acres (83,000 hectares) and destroyed 90 percent of the village of Lytton.

California’s Oak Fire rapidly grows into one of the largest fires of the year, U.S. - (video) Oak Fire started on July 22, 2022, in California’s Mariposa County and rapidly spread to more than 6 314 ha (15 603 acres) over the next 3 days. As of early July 25, it was 0% contained. Fueled by extreme heat and tinder-dry forests and underbrush, the fire began within 0.8 km (0.5 miles) from the town of Mariposa Pines rapidly growing into one the largest fires of the year.1 According to the California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection (Cal Fire), the fire has so far destroyed 10 structures and damaged 5 others. More than 6 000 people were placed under evacuation orders. More than 3 100 customers in the area are without power. Pacific Gas & Electric said they are still unable to access the affected equipment, adding that there is currently no indication when the power will be restored. Governor Gavin Newsom has declared a state of emergency for Mariposa County.The fire is spreading toward Yosemite National Park, located just about an hour’s drive from Mariposa County. The park is home to some of the largest and oldest sequoia trees in the world. Yosemite is still open, however, Highway 140 is closed from the junction of Highway 140 and 49 on the north end of Mariposa to Ponderosa Way

Oak Fire near Yosemite becomes California's largest wildfire in 2022 -- California's biggest wildfires this year exploded to over 26 square miles Monday, forcing thousands to flee remote mountain communities as the blaze near Yosemite National Park burned out of control amid sweltering temperatures and low humidity.The Oak Fire erupted Friday in Mariposa County, near the small town of Midpines. Firefighters, meanwhile, made progress against the Washburn Fire that's 12 miles east near Yosemite that threatened the park's largest and most iconic sequoia grove.The Washburn Fire was 87% contained after two weeks of firefighting, and the Oak Fire was 10% contained as of Monday, according to Cal Fire. Crews “made good headway” against the Oak Fire on Sunday and “fire activity was not as extreme" as it has been in previous days.The more than 2,500 firefighters battling the blaze were expected to encounter tough conditions including low humidity, high temperatures and steep terrain, Cal Fire said. The agency also dispatched 17 helicopters, 281 fire engines, 66 dozers and 46 water tenders to fight the Oak Fire.“It’s hot out there again today,” Cal Fire spokesperson Natasha Fouts said Sunday. “And the fuel moisture levels are critically low.”Light winds were blowing embers ahead into tree branches “and because it’s so dry, it’s easy for the spot fires to get established and that’s what fuels the growth,” Fouts said. Smoke drifted about 200 miles north toward Lake Tahoe and the same distance west into the San Francisco Bay Area, pollution control officials said. By Monday morning, the blaze had destroyed seven single residence structures, according to Cal Fire. Pacific Gas & Electric said on its website that more than 2,600 homes and businesses in the area had lost power as of Monday, with no indication when it would be restored. California Gov. Gavin Newsom declared a state of emergency for Mariposa County because of the fire, and over 6,000 people in the remote Sierra Nevada foothills were evacuated. A handful of residents defied the orders and stayed behind, said Adrienne Freeman with the U.S. Forest Service. "We urge people to evacuate when told," Freeman said. "This fire is moving very fast."

Republicans oppose drought, wildfire package - The House will vote this week on legislation to boost wildfire fighter pay, make federal forests more fire resilient and help communities in the West conserve water in the face of long-term drought.The package, called the “Wildfire Response and Drought Resiliency Act,” combines 48 previously introduced bills on related issues, a move that sparked Republican complaints that majority Democrats are trying to ram them through with scant consideration and little GOP involvement (E&E Daily, July 21).While many of the concepts in the legislation, such as enhanced pay and benefits for wildland firefighters, have bipartisan support, Republicans found little to praise at a House Rules Committee meeting Friday that set the parameters for floor debate.The Rules Committee blocked most of the several dozen amendments Republicans wanted debated on the floor, including some proposing more ambitious thinning of national forests and softening of environmental review requirements in some cases.The House will consider an amendment from Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy and Rep. Connie Conway, both California Republicans, to create a grant program to improve water supply reliability in communities experiencing shortages, as well as an amendment by Rep. Kim Schrier (D-Wash.) to expand weather assessments before and after wildfires to identify data gaps.Supporters, including Rep. Joe Neguse (D-Colo.) said the bill would put several wildfire-response measures into law, including some that have been temporarily advanced by the administration or in last last year’s infrastructure bill and other legislation — such as enhanced pay and benefits for firefighters. Forest Service firefighters have made sharply less than state firefighters in California, for instance, which Forest Service Chief Randy Moore has blamed for employee departures.

Biden administration announces plans to plant one billion trees - The Biden administration on Monday outlined plans to plant 1 billion trees as part of efforts to address an extensive reforestation backlog. The effort, spearheaded by the Department of Agriculture, will build on existing reforestation efforts using funds from the bipartisan infrastructure law and the bipartisan Repairing Existing Public Land by Adding Necessary Trees Act. Without the two laws, Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack said, the department would have been able to address only about 6 percent of the reforestation backlog. “Forests are a powerful tool in the fight against climate change,” Vilsack said in a statement. “Nurturing their natural regeneration and planting in areas with the most need is critical to mitigating the worst effects of climate change while also making those forests more resilient to the threats they face from catastrophic wildfire, historic drought, disease outbreaks and pest infestation.” “Our reforestation efforts on national forests only increase through strong partnerships with other federal agencies, tribes, state and local governments, communities and organizations,” added U.S. Forest Service Chief Randy Moore. “We recognize that successfully increasing reforestation on national forests is dependent on these strong partnerships.” The Forest Service has this year significantly expanded reforestation funds, putting about $100 million toward such efforts this year, at a time when unprecedented wildfires remain a looming threat. The announcement is the latest of a number of forestry-related moves by the federal government. In April, President Biden signed an executive order aimed at protecting old-growth forests. In August, before Biden took office, the U.S. officially signed on to an effort to plant 1 trillion trees worldwide, with a goal of at least 855 million in the U.S. by 2030. Republicans in particular have pushed planting more trees as an alternative to broader decarbonization efforts. Experts, however, say that planting enough trees to offset current carbon emissions is not feasible in terms of time or space.

Documents show BLM wild horses sold to slaughter, advocates say - There’s more trouble on the horizon for the Bureau of Land Management’s embattled wild horse and burro adoption incentive program.The American Wild Horse Campaign today released a report the group says shows that since 2019 at least 840 animals removed from federal rangelands, placed into holding pens and corrals, and adopted into private care were later sold at livestock auctions that included known buyers from slaughterhouses in Canada and Mexico.AWHC says it obtained documents through the Freedom of Information Act and from affiliated wild horse rescue groups that attended the auctions.The documents provide “irrefutable” evidence that BLM’s adoption incentive program has allowed “a flood of wild, untrained mustangs and burros” to be sent “into the slaughter pipeline,” said Amelia Perrin, AWHC’s investigations manager.BLM did not provide a response to the new report as requested by E&E News prior to publication of this story.BLM has in the past defended its popular pay-to-adopt program, which offers $1,000 to people who adopt one of the nearly 60,000 wild horses and burros removed from federal rangelands and held in off-range holding corrals and pastures.Participants receive $500 upfront and an additional $500 per adopted animal a year later, after a follow-up review determines the adopter is properly caring for the horse or horses and title has been transferred to the private party. Since the program started in late 2019, it has helped adopt more than 8,200 wild horses and burros into private care.

Russian forest fires swell by 4,000 — authorities - Emergencies – TASS -Russia’s forest fires swelled by 4,000 hectares in the past day, the Aerial Forest Protection Service said in a statement on Friday. As many as 107 forest fires scorching 25,034 hectares were active across the country as of Thursday morning. "Twenty-six forest fires engulfing 214 hectares were extinguished in Russia on July 21, 2022. A total of 114 wildfires scorching 29,284 hectares were active in Russia as of midnight on July 22, 2022. Active efforts are underway to extinguish the blazes," the statement reads. The largest fires are burning in the Khabarovsk Region (8,950 hectares) and the Sakha Region (6,841 hectares). Firefighting activities involve 2,615 personnel, 155 pieces of equipment and 33 aircraft. Another 71 aircraft are monitoring the fire situation.

As wildfires engulf Russian region, Putin urges authorities to take stronger action to prevent them -President Vladimir Putin is urging authorities to take stronger action to prevent wildfires in Russia.Speaking in a video call with federal and regional officials, Putin emphasised that the wildfires which hit the country last year were the largest in years - and asked local governors to report on measures that were taken to increase fire safety last time.Fires that have broken out across south-western Siberia in Russia have killed at least 10 people and damaged hundreds of buildings this week.Blazes ripped through several villages on Saturday, with high winds hampering efforts to extinguish them."We can't allow a repeat of the last year's situation," said Putin. "We need to combat fires in a more efficient, systemic and consistent way." He reaffirmed the importance of forests for dealing with global warming, noting that "large-scale wildfires undermine our climate protection efforts.""This issue is of principal importance for our country and the entire world," he said.

Climate change and land-use changes increase likelihood of flood events - The German government estimates the total losses resulting from the disastrous floods in July 2021 at 32 billion euros. In two studies, one of which is currently available in Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, researchers at Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT) have investigated how precipitation, evaporation processes, water flow, and runoff led to this flooding. To improve future preparedness for such extreme events, they advise that risk assessments take greater account of the landscape and river courses, how they change, and how sediments are transported. In addition, projections show an increase in the spatial extent and frequency of such extreme events, as well as higher amounts of precipitation.The July 2021 floodwas one of the five worst and costliest natural disasters in Europe in the past 50 years. More than 180 people lost their lives, and well over 10,000 buildings were damaged. Criticalinfrastructure, e.g. electrical grids, water supply networks, bridges, rail lines and roads, was partially or completely destroyed. The total extent of the flooding in the Eifel region on July 14 and 15, 2021, surprised even the experts. A combination of several factors contributed to this disaster. "We investigated how precipitation, evaporation processes, water flow, and runoff led to this flooding," says Dr. Susanna Mohr, General Manager of the Center for Disaster Management and Risk Reduction Technology (CEDIM) at KIT, who led the interdisciplinary team from several KIT institutes that compiled the study.The estimated amount of water that flowed through the Ahr River in the 2021 flood was comparable to that of the historic floods of 1804 and 1910, but the measured water levels were considerably higher at several locations in 2021. "We saw that the kind of debris—the material transported by the flowing water—changed significantly. Along with eroded sediment and existing deadwood, anthropogenic materials—those made by people—played a crucial role," says Mohr."For example, cars and trucks, trailers, trash containers and construction materials piled up around bridges, which caused additional bottlenecks and exacerbated the effects of the flood." To improve future preparedness for such extreme events, Mohr advises that flood risk management take the landscape, infrastructure and buildings into account, along with river courses and their changes and potential sediment transport, when performing hazard assessments.

How Minnesota's little, polluted Crow River clouds the Mississippi - Carrie Jennings flits around the South Fork Crow River like a water bug in the old one-seat canoe she bought years ago for $100, then pauses midstream to peer down at the brown water. "This is crazy cloudy," she mutters. She has come to check out this upper reach of the Crow River as it starts its journey through central Minnesota farm country to the Mississippi River—showing how one little river can cause so much damage. The state's cherished Mississippi River is clean as it emerges in northern Minnesota and heads south. Then it meets the Crow River, the first major agricultural river emptying into it, and its nutrient pollution doubles, state pollution officials say, adding phosphorous, nitrogen and sediment. You can see the water change at the intersection, some paddlers say. The Minnesota Pollution Control Agency stuck a fat exclamation point on the spot, near Dayton north of the Twin Cities, on its map of the Upper Mississippi. Jennings, research and policy director with the St. Paul nonprofit Freshwater Society, points with her paddle to some key reasons why. Large black plastic pipes jut from the banks of the South Fork Crow River near Cosmos in Meeker County, pouring water into it at nearly every bend. It's tile drainage water, coming from under fields that are filled mostly with corn and soybeans here, about 80 miles west of where the Crow joins the Mississippi. The nearly invisible network of pipes is like a vast underground highway system, draining away water to maximize crop yields. The tile line drainage carries farm chemicals—state pollution regulators say it's the single biggest source of nitrate in the Mississippi, delivering 43% of it. Along with the surface runoff, the tile drainage also increases the Crow's volume. High flows claw at its banks, a dynamic only worsened by climate change's heavier rains. The scouring exposes the roots of mighty cottonwoods and other trees on the banks, many of which have toppled into the river. There should be a sandy, gravelly mix on the Crow's banks and riverbed, Jennings said. Instead there is a thick black mud, like a quicksand, that sucks off shoes. Jennings said she expects to see water that brown in the Minnesota River, the state's notoriously dirty agricultural river to the south, but not in the Crow. And this is just the Crow's start. It only picks up more as it rolls downstream through heavy ag country such as Renville County before joining the main Crow River at Rockford. From there the Crow runs to the Mississippi, bringing its share of the pollution driving the large and growing oxygen-depleted "dead zone" in the Gulf of Mexico. "If our system of agriculture does this to rivers this far up in the Mississippi River watershed, imagine the cumulative damage by the time you reach the Gulf," Jennings said. "This is not a mystery that needs to be solved. We know why these are rivers impaired and we know how to fix them."

Historic rainfall event hits St. Louis, leaving homes and highways submerged, U.S. - (videos) Historic levels of rainfall fell over St. Louis, Missouri overnight Tuesday, July 26, 2022, causing widespread flash flooding. In the first 7 hours of the day, St. Louis recorded 204.7 mm (8.06 inches) of rainfall, breaking the previous all-time daily rainfall record from August 20, 1915, of 173.9 mm (6.85 inches) brought by remnants of the Galveston 1915 Hurricane. Some storm rainfall totals have reached 152 – 254 mm (6 – 10 inches), according to the National Weather Service, with rainfall rates of 25 – 75 mm (1 – 3 inches) per hour. Isolated rainfall rates up to 125 mm (5 inches) per hour were also reported. “This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. SEEK HIGHER GROUND NOW!” the National Weather Service wrote in the Flash Flood Emergency issued for St. Louis through 09:30 LT today. Along Hermitage Avenue, St. Louis firefighters rescued 6 people and 6 dogs from 18 homes in the neighborhood that has experienced “substantial flooding.” Another 15 are riding out the storm, Fox Weather reported.1 In western St. Louis, law enforcement officials reported water was encroaching on homes in the Ladue area, with water rescues underway. Spotters reported several cars were stranded along Lindbergh Boulevard just north of Interstate 64. More cars were stranded by floodwaters in the Maryland Heights neighborhood. St. Louis Fire crews were using small boats to rescue drivers trapped along Skinker Parkway, where several vehicles were submerged. Both Fee Fee Creek and Deer Creek have exceeded major flood stage, the NWS reported. “Most of the flooding reports have been from St. Louis proper and areas northwest of there,” weather.com senior meteorologist Chris Dolce said.2 There was one report of up to 279.4 mm (11 inches). “The worst of it seems to be over. There’ll be some moderate rainfall rates and some possibly heavy locally through mid-morning before it really tapers off,“ Dolce said. “Of course, we’ve still got flooding ongoing.”

Historic St. Louis flash flooding strands residents, closes roads - Torrential downpours sparked flash flooding in St. Louis and surrounding areas on Tuesday, stranding residents in their cars and homes as the amount of rain shattered a record set more than a century ago. The city had received more than 8 inches of rain as of 7 a.m. local time, the most ever recorded there in a calendar day and more than an inch over the record of 6.85 inches set in August 1915, when remnants of the hurricane in Galveston, Tex., passed through the area. Some areas on the northwest side of St. Louis received more than 10 inches of rain in six hours overnight — an event with a 0.1 percent chance of happening in a given year. The heaviest rain had moved off to the northeast by 8 a.m., but downpours continued to affect the city.Emergency workers were responding to numerous reports of drivers whose cars were submerged in the flooding. On one block in the western part of the city, the St. Louis Fire Department said, it had used an inflatable boat to rescue six people and six dogs trapped in about 18 homes amid severe flooding.Videos shared on social media showed many roads completely inaccessible. Parts of two major highways, Interstate 70 and Interstate 170, were closed because of the flooding, the Missouri Department of Transportation said.St. Louis County emergency officials urged residents not to travel and said they had set up a shelter for displaced people.“Exercise extreme caution,” St. Louis firefighter Garon Patrick Mosbysaid in a video shared on Twitter. “We are being overrun here.” Extreme precipitation events have increased substantially over the past century and are tied to warming from human-caused climate change. The heaviest such events increased by 42 percent in the Midwest between 1901 and 2016, with additional increases expected as the climate continues to warm, according to the U.S. government’s National Climate Assessment.The rain in St. Louis began late Monday as thunderstorms formed along a west-to-east line, repeatedly passing over the city like train cars on a track into Tuesday morning. The National Weather Service warned of “life threatening flash flooding” just after 2 a.m. and later declared a flash flood emergency, its most serious flood alert. By then, 3 to 6 inches of rain had fallen and high water was “threatening houses” while vehicles were submerged in high water, according to the Weather Service.“This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION,” it warned. “SEEK HIGHER GROUND NOW!”The thunderstorms formed along the northern periphery of a heat dome sprawled over the south-central states, responsible in recent days for record-high temperatures in parts of Texas, Oklahoma and Arkansas. St. Louis was situated in the turbulent transition zone between that oppressive heat and cooler weather entering the Upper Midwest from Canada.On Tuesday, the Weather Service declared the area from eastern Missouri to central West Virginia under an elevated risk for excessive rainfall, with the greatest risk from the St. Louis area through southern Illinois and into southwest Indiana. That risk is forecast to shift into the area from southeast Missouri through West Virginia on Wednesday and Thursday.

Heavy rains in Appalachia cause flash flooding and ‘catastrophic’ damage - Rescue workers plucked people off rooftops above fast-rising waters on Thursday in central Appalachia, where torrential rains unleashed what Kentucky’s governor described as some of the worst flooding in state history. One emergency official in hard-hit eastern Kentucky described the situation as “catastrophic” as water rescue crews searched for stranded people. The governor, Andy Beshear, said hundreds of properties could be destroyed. “What we’re going to see coming out of this is massive property damage,” Beshear said. “We expect the loss of life. Hundreds will lose their homes and this is going to be yet another event that it’s going to take not months but likely years for many families to rebuild and recover from.” Flash flooding and mudslides were reported across the mountainous region of eastern Kentucky, western Virginia and southern West Virginia, where thunderstorms have dumped several inches of rain over the past few days. Poweroutage.us reported more than 20,000 customers without electricity in eastern Kentucky and nearly 10,000 more in neighboring states. “We’re currently experiencing one of the worst, most devastating flooding events in Kentucky’s history,” Beshear said. “The situation is dynamic and ongoing. In most places, we are not seeing receding water. In fact, in most places, it is not crested yet.

Several EKY counties reporting damage from ongoing flash flooding (WYMT) - The damage is widespread and significant following what can only be described as an historic flash flooding event across the mountains of Eastern Kentucky and surrounding states. After several rounds of rain moved through the region in preceding days, an area of slow-moving thunderstorms developed across portions of the Kentucky River Valley, dumping several inches of rain. That rain, accumulating several inches in a short period of time, fell on already saturated ground, causing creeks and streams to pour out of their banks. The National Weather Service’s Forecast Office in Jackson reported 4.11″ inches of rain on Wednesday, surpassing the previous daily record for July 27 of 1.37 inches. That total also exceeded the previous high water mark for record daily rainfall for the entire month of July, which was 3.04 inches, set back during another significant flooding event on July 14, 2015. Thursday morning, Gov. Andy Beshear held a live conference to talk about the flooding in Eastern Kentucky. You can watch that below. The office also issued at least three rarely used Flash Flood Emergencies for portions of the Kentucky River Valley. Flash flooding has been reported throughout Breathitt, Leslie, Letcher, Knott, Magoffin, Perry, Pike, and Wolfe Counties in Kentucky, as well as Dickenson and Wise Counties in Virginia along with the independent City of Norton. As of 8:30 a.m., more than 20,000 people are without power, most of those being Kentucky Power customers. Below are several photos and videos sent in by viewers of the damage floodwaters have done throughout the region.

Flooding in Central Appalachia Kills at Least 8 in Kentucky (AP) — Torrential rains unleashed devastating floods in Appalachia on Thursday, as fast-rising water killed at least eight people in Kentucky and sent people scurrying to rooftops to be rescued. Water gushed from hillsides and flooded out of streambeds, inundating homes, businesses and roads throughout eastern Kentucky. Parts of western Virginia and southern West Virginia also saw extensive flooding. Rescue crews used helicopters and boats to pick up people trapped by floodwaters. Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear tweeted Thursday evening that the state's death toll from flooding had risen to eight. He asked for continued prayers for the region, which was bracing for more rain. “In a word, this event is devastating,” Beshear said earlier in the day. “And I do believe it will end up being one of the most significant, deadly floods that we have had in Kentucky in at least a very long time.” Beshear warned that property damage in Kentucky would be widespread. The governor said officials were setting up a site for donations that would go to residents affected by the flooding. Dangerous conditions and continued rainfall hampered rescue efforts Thursday, the governor said. “We’ve got a lot of people that need help that we can’t get to at the moment,” Beshear said. “We will.” Flash flooding and mudslides were reported across the mountainous region of eastern Kentucky, western Virginia and southern West Virginia, where thunderstorms dumped several inches of rain over the past few days. With more rain expected in the area, the National Weather Service said additional flooding was possible into Friday in much of West Virginia, eastern Kentucky and southwest Virginia. Forecasters said the highest threat of flash flooding was expected to shift farther east into West Virginia. Poweroutage.us reported more than 31,000 customers without electricity in eastern Kentucky, West Virginia and Virginia, with the bulk of the outages in Kentucky. “There are a lot of people in eastern Kentucky on top of roofs waiting to be rescued," Beshear said earlier Thursday. "There are a number of people that are unaccounted for and I’m nearly certain this is a situation where we are going to lose some of them.” Rescue crews worked throughout the night helping people stranded by the rising waters in eastern Kentucky's Perry County, where Emergency Management Director Jerry Stacy called it a “catastrophic event.” “We’re just in the rescue mode right now,” Stacy said, speaking with The Associated Press by phone as he struggled to reach his office in Hazard. “Extreme flash flooding and mudslides are just everywhere.” The storms hit an Appalachian mountain region where communities and homes are perched on steep hillsides or set deep in the hollows between them, where creeks and streams can rise in a hurry. But this one is far worse than a typical flood, said Stacy, 54. "I’ve lived here in Perry County all my life and this is by the far the worst event I’ve ever seen,” he said. Roads in many areas weren’t passable after as much as 6 inches (15 centimeters) of rain had fallen in some areas by Thursday, and 1-3 more inches (7.5 centimeters) could fall, the National Weather Service said. Beshear said he has deployed National Guard soldiers to the hardest-hit areas, and three parks in the region were opened as shelters for displaced people.

The Most Staggering Facts About The Major Kentucky Flooding | The Weather Channel --Heavy rain hammered eastern Kentucky and southwestern Virginia Wednesday night into Thursday morning, triggering destructive flash flooding that broke at least one long-standing flood record.Here are some aspects of this latest flood disaster that stunned even our team of meteorologists and journalists. For the latest on the impacts from this major flash flood event, check out our live updates page.One Kentucky town witnessed record flooding from this deluge in records dating to at least the Roaring Twenties.The North Fork Kentucky River at Whitesburg, Kentucky, not only topped its all-time record from January 1957, but crushed it by over 6 feet Thursday.This was about 11 feet above flood stage, and about 9 feet above the level at which homes along the river begin to flood in this town in Letcher County near the border with southwestern Virginia.The river rose about 18 feet in 10 hours from midnight through 10 a.m.Normally, the river is only 1 to 2 feet deep, illustrating the danger of flash flooding on smaller rivers, creeks and streams.In Jackson, Kentucky, 4.11 inches of rain fell Wednesday. That's almost an average August's (4.26 inches) worth of rain in this eastern Kentucky town about 70 miles southeast of Lexington.It was Jackson's second-wettest day in records dating to 1981 – only April 3, 2015 (4.29 inches), was wetter.According to the National Weather Service, this 12-hour deluge in eastern Kentucky had only a 0.1% or less chance of happening there in any year. In other words, this event had less than a 1-in-1,000 chance of happening in this area in any year.Parts of eastern Kentucky and far southwestern Virginia picked up 6 to 9 inches of rain. 24-hour rainfall contours and reports over eastern Kentucky and southwest Virginia as of 10:30 a.m. EDT, July 28, 2022.The flash flooding was so extreme the NWS issued flash flood emergencies for parts of at least six counties in eastern Kentucky. These highest-level flood alerts are only issued a few times each year for events that pose a severe threat to life, and state that catastrophic damage is either happening or will happen soon.At least one weather instrument couldn't stay out of the flooding.A Kentucky Mesonet station in Breathitt County, about 3 miles southeast of Jackson, was "compromised by floodwater" early Thursday morning. A similar fate may have been suffered by the aforementioned river gauge at Whitesburg, Kentucky, which stopped reporting at 10 a.m. EDT Thursday.The power of flood water, especially when it's funneled into river valleys and moving quickly, is shocking to see.This photo from Perry County, Kentucky, showed just the slab remaining after a home was swept away by floodwaters.Water moving at over 6 mph can exert the same pressure of air moving at EF5 tornado wind speeds – 200 mph or higher – according to severe weather expert Greg Forbes, formerly of The Weather Channel.

Historic flooding hits Kentucky, leaving at least 25 people dead, U.S. - (several videos) Heavy rains caused widespread flooding and destruction in eastern Kentucky on Thursday, July 28, 2022, leaving at least 25 people dead and many unaccounted for. Kentucky Governor, Andy Beshear, declared a state of emergency, calling this one of the most significant, deadly floods in the commonwealth’s history.

• The death toll rose to 25 on July 30, up from 16 on July 29. Unfortunately, officials fear the death toll will keep growing, possibly for weeks as rescue efforts continue across hard-to-reach areas.
• Local emergency was declared in the city of Hazard, and in the counties of Floyd, Breathitt, Clay, Owsley, Letcher, Perry and Pike.
• This is the second historic flooding to hit Kentucky’s Appalachian region in just 6 months.

Flash flooding and mudslides were reported across the mountainous region of eastern Kentucky, where up to 203 mm (8 inches) of rain fell in 24 hours to 08:00 LT – nearly half of it in a matter of hours. Flash flooding was also reported in western Virginia and southern West Virginia. “We’re currently experiencing one of the worst, most devastating flooding events in Kentucky’s history,” Beshear said Thursday. “The situation is dynamic and ongoing. In most places, we are not seeing receding water. In fact, in most places, it is not crested yet.” “There are a lot of people in eastern Kentucky on top of roofs waiting to be rescued,” the governor added. “There are a number of people that are unaccounted for and I’m nearly certain this is a situation where we are going to lose some of them.”Heavy overnight rains overwhelmed creeks, streams and ground already saturated from previous rain, the National Weather Service said, adding that additional rainfall amounts of more than 25 mm (1 inch) are expected through Friday evening. Flood warnings in portions of eastern Kentucky have been extended, in some cases until Monday evening.¹“We’re watching pretty close and it’s not going to take too much to cause some additional flooding issues,” said NWS forecaster Dustin Jordan.With rain continuing to come down, conditions are horrendous to help rescue those who need help, Perry County Sheriff Joe Engle said.“We are having a very difficult time getting to people. Roads are blocked by trees, washed away completely or covered with water. It is now physically impossible to get to some people.”²The National Weather Service said flooding on the North Fork of the Kentucky River at Whitesburg surged to a new record early Thursday, rising about 3.6 m (12 feet) in 12 hours from 21:00 on July 27 to 09:00 LT on July 28.The river hit a high of 5.1 m (16.8 feet) early Thursday, breaking the previous record of 4.5 m (14.7 feet).Additional rounds of excessive rainfall across parts of the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys are expected to trigger areas of flash flooding today, NWS forecaster Kebede said, adding that daily rounds of heavy downpours could cause flash flooding from Arizona to the Mid-South region over the next few days.Embedded shortwave energy moving from the Central Plains into the Ohio Valley will be the driving force behind Flash flooding threats this weekend.A surface front extending from the Central Plains to the Northeast will be the focus for heavy rainfall leading to flash flooding today, with the heaviest rainfall likely to occur over the panhandles of Texas/Oklahoma, where a couple of inches of rain may lead to flash flooding.A moderate risk (level 3/4) is in effect for portions of that area, as well as parts of West Virginia into eastern Kentucky.A multi-day precipitation event over the Ohio Valley is responsible for the moderate risk over West Virginia/Kentucky.

At least 13 dead or missing after flash floods hit the Central African Republic - Heavy rains affecting parts of the Central African Republic since July 21, 2022, left at least 13 people dead or missing and thousands of homes submerged or destroyed. According to the provisional toll, 9 people died in Bouchia in the south, 3 in the eastern town of Bria and 1 in the capital Bangui. People from more than 1 300 households are without shelter, with Bangui particularly affected, humanitarian action minister Virginie Baikoua told AFP.1 In just 48 hours to July 23, capital Bangui recorded 183 mm (7.2 inches) of rain, which is more than its entire July average of 147 mm (5.7 inches). Around 250 homes collapsed and many more were damaged or flooded, leaving thousands homeless. Some of those left homeless took refuge in religious buildings or schools. There were no reports that the Ubangi River had broken its banks

At least 14 fatalities as heavy rainfall hits Yemen - At least 14 people have died and 3 remain missing after heavy rainfall hit parts of Yemen over the last couple of days. The worst affected were Sanaa and Dhamar governorates in central-western Yemen. According to the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies (IFRC), 3 children died after heavy rain caused the collapse of their family house in the western part of the capital Sanaa. Outside the capital in Sanaa Governorate, 3 people died and 2 were injured after buildings collapsed. 6 others died after they were swept away by flooding in the Assalafieh district in the governorate of Raymah. Fatalities were also reported in Ibb governorate (1) and Dhamar governorate (1).1 IFRC added that heavy rains since June and throughout July affected an estimated 22 077 households (approximately 154 539 people) across wide areas of Yemen. Many of those affected are living in camps for internally displaced people. On July 25 and 26, moderate rainfall is forecast over north-western (Saada city) and south-western (Taiz and Lahj cities) Yemen.2 Every year, Yemen is hit by devastating floods caused by heavy rains, which further exacerbates the humanitarian situation in the affected areas.

Severe flash floods and mudslides leave at least 53 people dead, Iran - (videos) Heavy rains affecting Iran over the past 8 days caused severe flash floods and mudslides in which at least 53 people lost their lives, including those killed in a mudslide that hit the capital Tehran on July 28. This is among the deadliest rain-related events to hit Iran over the past 10 years.The event started on July 22 when severe flash floods hit the province of Fars, leaving at least 20 people dead and 3 missing.¹More than 30 people died in two villages northwest and northeast of Tehran on July 28 after a monsoon dumped heavy rain that triggered mudslides there, the state TV reported, adding that 24 people died in eight other provinces.There are fears the death toll will further rise as at least 16 people are still missing and more bodies were being uncovered after the rains abated.²The worst hit area on July 29 was Firouz Kooh, a popular tourist are in the foothills of Alborz Mountains northeast of the capital Tehran, where at least 10 people died and 6 remained missing, Tehran governor Mohsen Mansouri said.³Floods were still ravaging northern areas of Tehran province on Friday, he said, adding that despite repeated warnings, trekkers were still heading toward Firouz Kooh.The first video below shows a severe flood on the road leading to the town…

Hard choices ahead as Yellowstone rebounds from record flood - When Yellowstone National Park endured one of its driest years in history last year, Superintendent Cam Sholly compared the conditions to the Dust Bowl days of the 1930s. Last month, after four days of rain and snowmelt produced devastating floods and mudslides, he called it a “thousand-year event, whatever that means these days.” Perhaps no park superintendent in the nation has gotten a more vivid look at the extremes of Mother Nature in the past year than Sholly, who took the helm of Yellowstone in 2018. Since the June floods forced an evacuation and temporary shutdown, Sholly in a recent interview said the park has moved “at lightning speed” to reopen. As of last week, officials said 93 percent of Yellowstone’s paved roads are again accessible to the public, along with 94 percent of the park’s backcountry. In the latest sign of progress, the 68-mile Beartooth Highway — once dubbed the most beautiful road in America by the late CBS correspondent Charles Kuralt — reopened on Friday afternoon, giving visitors easy access to the park’s northeast entrance. While Sholly’s pleased with the early results, he and his superiors at the National Park Service have yet to confront the hard choices that await on how to best rebuild Yellowstone in the face of a rapidly changing climate. Regardless of how they proceed, park advocates said Yellowstone’s experience this summer makes one thing clear: Congress will need to provide billions more to help an already-strapped park service to fortify its infrastructure — including aging buildings, roads and other structures — to ensure parks can survive the ravages of extreme weather. That promises to be an enormous lift for an agency that already faces a nearly $22 billion backlog in deferred maintenance, including $929 million at Yellowstone, the most for any park (Greenwire, June 17). “Obviously it is a ton of money and they can’t do it all at once,” said Brett Hartl, government affairs director for the Center for Biological Diversity. “But it’s a big difficult problem that a lot of our public lands face.” At Yellowstone, no decision on the park’s future will be tougher than whether to reconstruct a popular flood-damaged road that runs through the Gardner River Canyon, connecting Roosevelt Arch and the park’s north entrance in Gardiner, Mont., with the park’s headquarters at Mammoth Hot Springs in Wyoming. In a raw show of nature’s power, the intensity of the flooding actually changed the river’s course. “Where the road was, in many areas, the river is now,” Sholly explained. While the park is still studying its options, Sholly said he already questions whether it would make any sense to rebuild at all in the Gardner Canyon.

 Mass mortality events linked to marine heatwaves could become the new norm in the Mediterranean Sea - An international team of researchers led by the Institut de Ciències del Mar (ICM-CSIC) has proven that, between 2015 and 2019, the Mediterranean experienced a series of marine heat waves that affected all regions of the basin, which resulted in recurrent mass mortality events throughout the period analyzed. The details are reported in a study recently published in the journal Global Change Biology. According to the work, populations of some 50 species (including corals, sponges and macroalgae, among others) were affected by these events along thousands of kilometers of Mediterranean coasts, from the Alboran Sea to the Near Eastern coasts. "Specifically, the impacts of mortalities were observed between the surface and 45 meters' depth, where the recorded marine heat waves were exceptional, affecting more than 90% of the Mediterranean surface and reaching temperatures of more than 26ºC," explains the ICM-CSIC researcher Joaquim Garrabou, one of the authors of the study. Some of the most affected species are key to maintaining the functioning and biodiversity of the main coastal habitats. These include Posidonia oceanica meadows or coral assemblages, two of the most emblematic habitats in the Mediterranean. This is the first study to assess the effects of mass mortalities on a Mediterranean scale over five consecutive years. In total, more than 30 research groups from 11 countries have participated, which has made it possible to note the incidence and severity of mortality in every corner of the basin. In fact, this is the most complete picture yet of the impacts of extreme warming events on marine organisms and ecosystems in the Mediterranean. "Unfortunately, the results of the work show that the Mediterranean Sea is experiencing an acceleration of ecological impacts associated with climate change, posing an unprecedented threat to the health and functioning of its ecosystems,"

Feds eye speed rules to protect North Atlantic right whales - NOAA Fisheries today proposed new speed bumps to protect endangered North Atlantic right whales from getting struck by vessels.Pressed by a petition and follow-up litigation filed by environmentalists, the federal agency proposed expanding the boundaries and timing of seasonal no-speeding zones along the East Coast.The proposed rule would also expand mandatory speed restrictions of 10 knots or less to include most vessels 35 to 65 feet in length.“Collisions with vessels continue to impede North Atlantic right whale recovery. This proposed action is necessary to stabilize the ongoing right whale population decline, in combination with other efforts to address right whale entanglement and vessel strikes in the U.S. and Canada,” said Janet Coit, assistant administrator for NOAA Fisheries.During the past 2 ½ years, NOAA Fisheries has documented four lethal right whale collisions with vehicles in U.S. waters.NOAA Fisheries estimates that there are now fewer than 350 North Atlantic right whales, including fewer than 100 reproductively active females.North Atlantic right whale calving rates dropped from 2017 to 2020, with no births recorded during the 2017-2018 season. NOAA Fisheries reported that the 2020-2021 calving season had the first substantial calving increase in five years, with 20 calves born, followed by 15 calves during the 2021-2022 calving season.“However, mortalities continue to outpace births,” the agency notedVessel strikes and entanglements are the primary cause of serious injuries and mortalities.According to NOAA Fisheries, “numerous studies have indicated that slowing the speed of vessels reduces the risk of lethal vessel collisions, particularly in areas where right whales are abundant and vessel traffic is common and otherwise traveling at high speeds.”Whale and Dolphin Conservation, Defenders of Wildlife, the Conservation Law Foundation and the Center for Biological Diversity filed a legal petition in 2020 asking the federal agency to expand vessel-related protections for the whale. “We are glad that NOAA is finally taking action to protect both whales and boaters. Just like slowing down in a school zone, speed zones on the water give boaters and the whales a chance to react and move out of harm’s way,” said Regina Asmutis-Silvia, executive director of Whale and Dolphin Conservation’s North American office.

'They look almost human made.' NOAA finds weird lines of holes in mid-Atlantic floor - Scientists exploring a submerged mountain range in the mid-Atlantic stumbled onto something they can't explain: An organized series of holes punched in the floor of the Atlantic Ocean. The discovery was made July 23, and photos show the dots connect into nearly straight lines ... or trails ... or designs. NOAA Ocean Exploration isn't yet sure how to explain it. "We observed several of these sublinear sets of holes in the sediment. These holes have been previously reported from the region, but their origin remains a mystery," NOAA Ocean Exploration reported. "While they look almost human made, the little piles of sediment around the holes make them seem like they were excavated by ... something." The July 23 dive reached depths of 1.7 miles while visiting the summit of an underwater volcano north of the Azores. A remotely operated camera was used to safely record the discoveries. NOAA posted photos that show the holes were found in what is otherwise a flat sandy surface. Scientists invited the public to offer theories, but commenters have raised more questions, including some who wondered if the holes were made by someone taking core samples. "Is that an object or animal inside the holes? Does that line run in the same direction as the current?" Anthony Narehood asked. "Water from underground springs?" Mike Weathersby posted. "What about gas methane?" Eduardo Pogorelsky said. The discovery was made as part of the Voyage to the Ridge 2022 expedition, which is exploring and mapping the "poorly understood deepwater areas of the Charlie-Gibbs Fracture Zone, Mid-Atlantic Ridge, and Azores Plateau." The Mid-Atlantic Ridge stretches 10,000 miles from north to south, and is considered "the longest mountain range in the world and one of the most prominent geological features on Earth," NOAA Ocean Exploration says. "The majority of it sits underwater and thus much of it remains largely unexplored. With active tectonic spreading, the MAR is the site of frequent earthquakes," NOAA reports. "Hydrothermal vents may form where magma provides heat as it rises to the seafloor. These vents are known to support diverse chemosynthetic communities. However, little is known about life at these sites once vents go extinct, or what life lies beyond the vents, further away from the rift zone."

Global extinction threat may be much higher than previously thought - The threat of extinction to all species on Earth may be much higher than previously thought, a new study suggests, after a biodiversity survey found that about 30% of species have been globally threatened or driven to extinction since the year 1500. An international team of researchers surveyed a "large and diverse group" of biodiversity experts from around the world "who collectively study all major taxa and habitats in freshwater, terrestrial and marine ecosystems," according to the study published this week in the journal Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment. The 3,331 biodiversity experts from 113 countries were asked to estimate past and future global biodiversity loss as well as rank factors that drive species to become globally threatened or extinct. The experts, who had all published significant studies on biodiversity of their own, also ranked the drivers of global biodiversity loss and estimated its impacts on ecosystems and people. The researchers, led by University of Minnesota associate professor Forest Isbell, compared the survey results to other sources of information and noted that the study carries importance because "decision makers often rely on expert judgment to fill knowledge gaps." "Expert judgment has provided estimates and predictions of key unknowns in fields as diverse as nuclear power safety, volcanic eruptions, climate change and biodiversity loss," the study reads. "The most accurate estimates and predictions come from large and diverse groups of experts, in part because expertise declines precipitously outside an individual's area of specialization."

Strong eruption at Sakurajima volcano, Volcanic Alert Level raised to 5, evacuations ordered, Japan - A strong explosive eruption took place at Sakurajima volcano, Japan at 20:05 LT (11:05 UTC) on July 24, 2022, prompting the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) to raise the Volcanic Alert Level from 3 to 5 and urge residents living within 3 km (1.8 miles) from the volcano to evacuate. JMA said the eruption took place at Minamidake crater shortly after 20:00 LT, throwing large volcanic rocks as far as 2.5 km (1.5 miles) away. While major eruption is not expected, JMA urged some 120 residents living in the danger zone to evacuate. The agency warned of falling volcanic rocks within 3 km (1.8 miles) from the crater and possible flow of lava, ash and searing gas within 2 kilometers (1.2 miles).1 Locals are advised to pay attention to updates from local authorities. The Aira caldera in the northern half of Kagoshima Bay contains the post-caldera Sakurajima volcano, one of Japan’s most active. Eruption of the voluminous Ito pyroclastic flow accompanied the formation of the 17 x 23 km (10.5 x 14.3 miles) caldera about 22 000 years ago. Frequent historical eruptions, recorded since the 8th century, have deposited ash on Kagoshima, one of Kyushu’s largest cities, located across Kagoshima Bay only 8 km (5 miles) from the summit. The largest historical eruption took place during 1471-76.

 Very strong and shallow M7.0 earthquake hits Luzon, Philippines - -A very strong and shallow earthquake registered by PHIVOLCS as M7.0 hit Luzon, Philippines at 00:43 UTC (08:43 LT) on July 27, 2022. The agency is reporting a depth of 17 km (10.5 miles). USGS is reporting M7.0 at a depth of 10 km (6.2 miles), EMSC M7.1 at a depth of 10 km (6.2 miles). The quake damaged numerous homes and buildings, leaving at least 5 people dead and 130 injured. Landslides were reported across the region. Telecommunication and electric power distribution infrastructure were damaged, leading to loss of signal and power interruptions. The Armed Forces of the Philippines has been instructed to mobilize all of its assets to assist affected communities. More than 220 aftershocks were registered over the next 4 hours. The epicenter was located in the province of Abra, 13.8 km (8.6 miles) SE of Dolores (population 2 378), 40.4 km (25.1 miles) WNW of Pasil (population 10 109), and 98 km (60.9 miles) W of Tuguegarao (population 115 105), Philippines. 171 000 people are estimated to have felt severe shaking, 663 000 very strong, 1 565 000 strong and 4 109 000 moderate. The USGS issued a Yellow alert for shaking-related fatalities and economic losses. Some casualties and damage are possible and the impact should be relatively localized. Past yellow alerts have required a local or regional level response. Estimated economic losses are less than 1% of GDP of Philippines. Overall, the population in this region resides in structures that are a mix of vulnerable and earthquake-resistant construction. The predominant vulnerable building types are unknown/miscellaneous types and heavy wood frame construction. Recent earthquakes in this area have caused secondary hazards such as tsunamis, landslides and liquefaction that might have contributed to losses. philippines earthquake july 27 2022 location map z2 Image credit: TW/SAM, Google philippines earthquake july 27 2022 location map z1 Image credit: TW/SAM, Google Walls cracked on many houses and buildings, while some of them collapsed. A villager died when he was hit by falling cement slabs in his house in Abra, where at least 25 others were injured and were mostly confined in hospitals, AP reported. The second fatality is a construction worker hit by debris in the town of La Trinidad in Benguet province, where some roads were shut by landslides and boulders. Five people were injured when rocks and debris pummeled their SUV and a truck on a hillside road in Mountain Province near Benguet, officials said. Rescuers found two more bodies during the day, one in Benguet and one in another province.

Greenland hit with 'unusually extensive' melting of ice sheet, boosting sea levels, scientists say - It's getting hotter in Greenland and last weekend temperatures rose enough to cause 18 billion tons of the country's ice sheet to melt over a three-day period. Scientists have warned about the impending fate of Greenland's ice sheet and say what happened between July 15 and 17 is the latest massive melting event contributing to an increase in the global sea level. The amount of water from the July 15-17 melt—about 6 billion tons per day, or 18 billion tons over the weekend—is enough to "cover West Virginia in a foot of water—four inches per day, roughly," Ted Scambos, a senior research scientist at the University of Colorado's Earth Science and Observation Center and National Snow and Ice Data Center, told U.S. TODAY. Much of the melting came from northern Greenland because warm air drifted over from the Canadian Arctic Archipelago, Scambos said. There is also a high-pressure dome over Greenland. Together, they created an "unusually extensive melt event," he said. Temperatures vary over Greenland, but the coldest temperatures are in areas of high elevation, toward the center of the ice sheet, Once temperatures are above freezing or 32 degrees Fahrenheit, the melting begins. Temperatures last weekend were around 60 degrees Fahrenheit, or 10 degrees warmer than normal for this time of year, according to CNN. "In recent years, we've seen a lot of heat waves in Greenland, this recent warming of it being one example," L "Any temperature above freezing can cause some surface melting." In 1980s and 1990s Greenland, a melt event of this sort never occurred, but starting in the 2000s—especially since 2010—the melting has been more extensive. The melt is currently two times larger than normal, said Xavier Fettweis at the University of Liège. Fettweis, a polar researcher, created a model scientists use, along with satellite data, to study Greenland's changes. The current melt is among two of the largest melts in the ice sheet history after the 2012 and 2019 melting events; in 2019, the runoff was about 527 billion tons. So far, the total melt is far below 2019 levels, however, the situation is more dire over the Svalbard ice caps at the North of Norway, Fettweis said. More melting is expected this weekend, said Scambos, from the National Snow and Ice Data Center. "This event is one of many events over the whole summer," he said. "We can expect on the order of 100 billion tons of water going into the ocean. Greenland as a whole is losing a tremendous amount of ice every year now."

The "we'll-just-adapt-to-climate-change" team takes drubbing --Climate change deniers have had to adjust their story in recent years as the effects of climate change have become more and more apparent to people where they live all around the world. The first iteration was that climate change is good. It will make winters milder and it will help "fertilize" crops with additional carbon dioxide which all plants need to manufacture the food they live on.While the "greening" effect of rising carbon dioxide concentrations is real, there is a limit to how much it will help plants. As for milder winters, they may be good for some and worse for others. Where they result in diminished snows in critical watersheds such as the Himalayas and the Alps, the effect can be diminished water supplies, particularly at crucial times in summer when mountain snowmelt can stabilize flows in key streams and rivers that might otherwise be very low so that they can provide irrigation water and water for human consumption.So, now the deniers argue that we can just adapt. This is, of course, the path of least resistance since it requires no major changes in business-as-usual. Let's see how that's working out.In the ongoing European heatwave, airport runways are melting, railroad tracks are melting, and roads are buckling and roofs are melting. The infrastructure we've built just isn't made to stand up to this kind of heat. But the indirect effects of climate change are just as important. Power generation is heavily dependent on water. As drought reduces available water supplies, electricity generation can be affected. Most generation plants use steam to power turbines. When water is in short supply, this hampers generation. Water scarcity is, of course, directly responsible for reductions in hydroelectric generation.Then there is the problem of increased consumption in no small part due to increased use of air-conditioning. This, of course, creates a vicious cycle in which increased consumption of electricity generated by fossil fuels aggravates climate change which then leads to higher temperatures which then leads to increased use of air-conditioning. If this is what the climate change deniers mean by adaptation, their argument is defeated on the spot. Adaptation that makes matters worse creates the need for more adaptation and more after that. There is, of course, the cost of damage done by increasing flooding, both in coastal areas and elsewhere. And, there's the need to find more water for areas becoming drier due to drought. Finally, there are the droughts affecting crops worldwide and driving up food prices, droughts now spreading across the globe—just as climate models predicted. Today, we have drought in Europe, United States,Mexico, Argentina, Mauritania, Uganda, Ethiopia, Kenya, Somalia, Djibouti and Eritrea. There are certainly more and others that don't encompass a substantial part of the country, but are nevertheless consequential. So far, the "adaptation" strategy does not seem like its succeeding. It's more like coping. And, we have a lot of coping ahead of us for failing to take prevention seriously.

Climate Change Is Not Negotiable - New York Times Editorial - The American West has gone bone dry, the Great Salt Lake is vanishing and water levels in Lake Mead and Lake Powell, the two great life-giving reservoirs on the Colorado River basin, are declining with alarming speed. Wildfires are incinerating crops inFrance, Spain, Portugal and Italy, while parts of Britain suffocated last week in temperatures exceeding 100 degrees Fahrenheit. Yet the news from Washington was all about the ability of a single United States senator, Joe Manchin, to destroy the centerpiece of President Biden’s plans to confront these very problems — roughly $300 billion in tax credits and subsidies aimed at greatly expanding wind, solar, electric car batteries and other clean energy technologies over the next decade. Had it survived, this would have been the single biggest investment Washington had ever made to combat the ravages of a warming climate.This was more than another setback for Mr. Biden, who had already seen his climate ambitions threatened by the Supreme Court and rising oil and gas prices. It undercut American competitiveness in the global race for cleaner fuels and cars, and made a mockery of Mr. Biden’s efforts to reclaim the leadership role on climate change that Donald Trump squandered. Mr. Biden made bold promises to America and the world in his early months in office, designed to honor, at long last, America’s commitment at the Paris climate summit in 2015 to keep global temperatures from rising 1.5 degrees Celsius above preindustrial levels. That is the threshold, scientists believe, beyond which wildfires, floods, biodiversity loss, rising seas and human dislocation become significantly more devastating — and just a few tenths of a degree hotter than the world is today. Reaching that 1.5 number or even staying below two degrees would require a radical transformation of the world’s energy systems, replacing fossil fuels with low carbon and ultimately carbon-free energy sources, and doing so not on a leisurely glide path but quickly, cutting greenhouse gas emissions in half by 2030 and effectively zeroing them out by midcentury. It must be said that Mr. Manchin was hardly alone in his opposition to Mr. Biden’s plans. His recent prominence owes much to Mitch McConnell and other Senate Republicans, not one of whom stepped forward to support the president or offer a plausible alternative. Had enough Republicans joined with the Democrats to construct a bipartisan climate bill, Mr. Manchin’s longstanding, entrenched opposition to necessary action on climate change would have been irrelevant. Instead, it was decisive. He became a necessary swing vote to get Mr. Biden’s program approved in an evenly divided Senate under a process known as budget reconciliation. Without congressional backing, Mr. Biden has fewer tools to achieve his goals, which now seem out of reach. The president and his interior secretary, Deb Haaland, could help further by bringing clarity to the administration’s policies on oil and gas drilling, which right now are confusing. Mr. Biden pledgedin his campaign to halt new oil and gas leasing on federal lands, which is a significant cause of greenhouse gas emissions. That promise seems long ago and far away. Interior’s recent five-year offshore drilling plan opens the possibility of leasing in parts of the Gulf of Mexico, while a recent environmental impact statement does not foreclose, as environmentalists had hoped, the Willow Project, ConocoPhillips’s proposed development of oil and gas resources in the fragile Western Arctic.

The Future of Global Catastrophic Risk Events from Climate Change By Jeff Masters - Four times since 1900, human civilization has suffered global catastrophes with extreme impacts: World War I (40 million killed), the 1918-19 influenza pandemic (40-50 million killed), World War II (40-50 million killed), and the COVID-19 pandemic (an economic impact in the trillions, and a 2020-21 death toll of 14.9 million, according to the World Health Organization). These are the only events since the beginning of the 20^th century that meet the United Nations’s definition of global catastrophic risk (GCR): a catastrophe global in impact that kills over 10 million people or causes over $10 trillion (2022 USD) in damage. But human activity is “creating greater and more dangerous risk” and increasing the odds of global catastrophic risk events, by increasingly pushing humans beyond nine “planetary boundaries” of environmental limits within which humanity can safely operate, warns a recent United Nations report, “Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction – Our World at Risk: Transforming Governance for a Resilient Future” (GAR2022) and its companion paper, “Global catastrophic risk and planetary boundaries: The relationship to global targets and disaster risk reduction” (see July post, “Recklessness defined: breaking 6 of 9 planetary boundaries of safety“).These reports, endorsed by United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres, make the case that the combined effects of disasters, economic vulnerabilities, and overtaxing of ecosystems are creating “a dangerous tendency for the world to tend toward the Global Collapse scenario. This scenario presents a world where planetary boundaries have been extensively crossed, and if GCR events have not already occurred or are in the process of occurring, then their likelihood of doing so in the future is extreme … and total societal collapse is a possibility. Figure 1. The nine planetary boundaries beyond which there is a risk of destabilization of the Earth system, which would threaten human societal development, April 2022 version. (Image credit: Stockholm Resilience Institute) Human civilization has evolved during the Holocene Era, the stability of which is now threatened by human-caused climate change. As a result, global catastrophic risk events from climate change are growing increasingly likely, the U.N. May 2022 reports conclude. There are many other potential global catastrophic risk events, both natural and human-caused (Figure 2), posing serious risks and warranting humanity’s careful consideration. But the report cautions of “large uncertainty both for the likelihood of such events occurring and for their wider impact.” (Note that there is at least one other type of Global Catastrophic Risk event the report omits: an intense geomagnetic storm. A repeat of the massive 1859 Carrington Event geomagentic storm, which might crash the electrical grid for 130 million people in the U.S. for multiple years, could well be a global catastrophic risk event.) Five types of GCR events with increasing likelihood in a warmer climate:

• 1) Drought. The most serious immediate global catastrophic risk event associated with climate change might well be a food-system shock caused by extreme droughts and floods hitting multiple major global grain-producing “breadbaskets” simultaneously. Such an event could lead to significant food prices spikes and result in mass starvation, war, and a severe global economic recession. This prospect exists in 2022-23, exacerbated by war and the COVID-19 pandemic.
• 2) War. In his frightening book Food or War, published in October 2019, science writer Julian Cribb documents 25 food conflicts that have led to famine, war, and the deaths of more than a million people – mostly caused by drought. For example, China’s drought and famine of 1630-31 led to a revolt that resulted in the collapse of the Ming Dynasty. Another drought in China in the mid-nineteenth century led to the Taiping rebellion, which claimed 20-30 million lives.
• 3) Sea-level rise, combined with land subsidence. During the coming decades, it will be very difficult to avoid a global catastrophic risk event from sea-level rise, when combined with coastal subsidence from groundwater pumping, loss of river sedimentation from flood-control structures, and other human-caused effects: A moderate global warming scenario (RCP 4.5) will put $7.9-12.7 trillion dollars of global coastal assets at risk of flooding by 2100, according to a 2020 study by Kirezci et al., “Projections of global-scale extreme sea levels and resulting episodic coastal flooding over the 21st Century.” While this study did not take into account assets that inevitably will be protected by new coastal defenses to be erected, neither did it consider the indirect costs of sea-level rise from increased storm surge damage, mass migration away from the coast, salinification of fresh water supplies, and many other factors. A 2019 report by the Global Commission on Adaptation estimated that sea level rise will lead to damages of more than $1 trillion per year by 2050.
• 4) Pandemics. As Earth’s climate warms, wild animals will be forced to relocate their habitats and increasingly enter regions with large human populations. This development will dramatically increase the risk of a jump of viruses from animals to humans that could lead to a pandemic, according to a 2022 paper by Carlson et al. in Nature, “Climate change increases cross-species viral transmission risk.” Bats are the type of animal of most concern. Note that in the case of the 1918-19 influenza GCR event, a separate GCR event helped trigger it: WWI, because of the mass movement of troops that spread the disease. The U.N. reports emphasize that one GCR event can trigger other GCR events, with climate change acting as a threat multiplier.
• 5) Ocean current changes. Increased precipitation and glacial meltwater from global warming could flood the North Atlantic with enough fresh water to slow down or even halt the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), the ocean current system that transports warm, salty water from the tropics to the North Atlantic and sends cold water to the south along the ocean floor. If the AMOC were to shut down, the Gulf Stream would no longer pump warm, tropical water to the North Atlantic. Average temperatures would cool in Europe by three degrees Celsius (5.4°F) or more in just a few years – not enough to trigger a full-fledged ice age, but enough cooling to bring snows in June and killing frosts in July and August, as occurred in the famed 1816 “year without a summer” caused by the eruption of Mt. Tambora. In addition, shifts in the jet stream pattern might bring about a more La Niña-like climate, causing an increase in drought to much of the Northern Hemisphere, greatly straining global food and water supplies.

Al Gore compares climate inaction to Texas school shooting - Former Vice President Al Gore tore into climate change deniers and others who don’t support aggressive climate policies in a pair of interviews. Gore, a longtime climate advocate whose 2006 film “An Inconvenient Truth” helped spur awareness of climate change, was a guest on both NBC’s “Meet The Press” and ABC’s “This Week” yesterday. His appearance came amid historic heat waves in North America and Europe, the collapse of President Joe Biden’s climate agenda in Congress and other setbacks. “The climate deniers are really in some ways similar to all of those almost 400 law enforcement officers in Uvalde, Texas, who were waiting outside an unlocked door while the children were being massacred. They heard the screams, they heard the gunshots, and nobody stepped forward,” Gore told NBC’s Chuck Todd, referring to May’s elementary school shooting, in which a gunman killed 21 students and teachers. “Confronted with this global emergency, what we’re doing with our inaction and failing to walk through the door and stop the killing is not typical of what we are capable of as human beings,” he continued. Gore went on to say that with increasing signs of the severity of climate change impacts, the public’s sentiment toward the issue is starting to change, but politicians aren’t showing similar shifts. “Our democracy is broken. And in order to solve the climate crisis, we’re going to have to pay attention to the democracy crisis,” he said. “The same reason that it’s seemingly impossible for the Congress to pass legislation banning these weapons of war … is the same reason that we can’t pass climate legislation,” he said, blaming the issue on a “minority government” that flexes its muscles through the Senate filibuster. On “This Week,” Gore said humans are using the atmosphere as an “open sewer.” Scientists are “saying that if we don’t stop using our atmosphere as an open sewer and if we don’t stop these heat-trapping emissions, things are going to get a lot worse. More people will be killed, and the survival of our civilization is at stake,” he said. “This should be a moment for a global epiphany and the voters and the publics in countries around the world need to put a lot more pressure on their political leaders,” Gore continued. He called on Biden to take aggressive unilateral action on climate, like further limiting greenhouse gas emissions from cars and power plants. “The Supreme Court decision did not take all their power away,” Gore said of EPA.

Climate emergencies in other countries have been 'wholly symbolic,' activists say - In June 2019, the Canadian government declared a national climate emergency, calling the Earth's rapid warming a “real and urgent crisis” for the country and the planet. The next day, the same government of Prime Minister Justin Trudeau approved the Trans Mountain pipeline expansion, which would triple the amount of crude oil that moves from the Alberta tar sands to the Pacific Coast for shipment around the world.That may seem like a contradiction. But environmental activists say that climate emergency declarations in 39 countries around the world — including Canada, Japan and the entire European Union — have been more about virtue signaling than substance.However, activists argue that President Biden, who isconsidering declaring a climate emergency in the coming weeks, could issue a declaration that temporarily unlocks new powers to bolster clean energy and curb investments in fossil fuels.“Canada's climate emergency declaration was wholly symbolic,” Eddy Pérez, international climate diplomacy manager at Climate Action Network Canada, said in a text message. “Declaring a climate emergency in Canada didn't come with new powers or the ability for the federal government to do more. It hasn't stopped Canada's support for fossil fuels.”But Pérez, like other climate activists interviewed for this report, said he would welcome a climate emergency declaration from Biden.“If by declaring a climate emergency President Biden helps bring back the U.S. from its current path toward climate failure, with a Congress kidnapped by fossil fuel interests, then of course I'd support it,” he said.

Can EPA cut CO2 from gas plants in regulatory 'new world'? - Last month’s Supreme Court decision left EPA with a conundrum: how to meaningfully cut carbon dioxide emissions from the nation’s fleet of natural gas power plants without risking another reversal in court. Limited technological options and a mountain of legal uncertainty make taming CO2 emissions from existing gas plants a difficult task. But it is one the Biden administration will have to grapple with to have any chance of delivering on its promise to cut power-sector emissions 80 percent by the end of this decade. The potential focus on gas represents a shift from the Obama era, when EPA largely focused its efforts on curtailing emissions from coal. But CO2 pollution from gas plants has exploded in recent decades, as the fuel replaced coal as the country’s leading form of electricity generation. Where gas was responsible for 13 percent of U.S. power sector emissions in 2005, it accounted for more than 40 percent in2020, according to the most recent EPA data. “The climate crisis demands significant emission reductions from all major sources, and the gas sector is emitting 40 percent of domestic power plant emissions,” said Jay Duffy, an attorney at Clean Air Task Force. “In order to protect public health and the environment and respond to the Clean Air Act mandate, EPA needs to swiftly enact stringent regulations.” Gas presents a number of challenges to EPA where coal does not. For one thing, today’s fleet of combined cycle gas plants emit few of the traditional air pollutants that coal plants do. So while more stringent standards on pollutants like particulate matter or sulfur dioxide would likely result in additional CO2 reductions at coal plants, it would leave gas emissions untouched. There is also the relative youth of America’s gas fleet. The average combined cycle gas plant is 22 years old, while the average coal plant is 46 years old, according to Energy Department data. That means many gas plants will continue to run for years even as a growing number of coal facilities are shut down due to their age. Legal uncertainties only add to the difficulty of EPA’s task. In deciding how to regulate existing gas plants, EPA must also weigh the risk of another rebuke by the court that could result in years of lost work (Climatewire, July 13). The high court’s June 30 ruling in West Virginia v. EPA notionally leaves the agency plenty of room to run as it readies proposals to curb carbon at new and existing power stations. The only option the court’s conservative flank explicitly took off the table was using the Clean Air Act to force generation shifting away from fossil fuels — the pathway taken by the now-defunct Climate Power Plan. But the court also used its ruling to issue a warning to EPA and other agencies that they can expect less deference in the future when they try to color outside the lines explicitly drawn by Congress.

One climate rule won't provoke the Supreme Court - The next important climate rule on EPA’s docket may be unscathed by last month’s Supreme Court decision limiting the agency’s options for regulating power plant carbon emissions. The supplemental draft rule for oil and gas methane, which EPA is preparing to submit for White House review in the coming weeks, draws on time-tested regulatory authorities that the court’s conservative majority seemed to endorse in its West Virginia v. EPA opinion. The court sided with Republican attorneys general and the coal industry when it ruled that “system-wide” regulatory approaches used by EPA in the Obama-era Clean Power Plan were out of bounds. But the supplemental draft rule that EPA says it plans to send to the White House Office of Information and Regulatory Affairs this fall builds on a 2016 rule to limit methane leaks at individual sources. That’s a general regulatory strategy that Chief Justice John Roberts’ majority opinion seemed to deem a traditional use of the Clean Air Act. Roberts wrote in the West Virginia opinion that the court found “no occasion” to consider whether the statute limits EPA “exclusively” to pollution controls at individual sources. But he went on to call it “pertinent to our analysis” that EPA had “acted consistent with such a limitation for the first four decades of the statute’s existence.” When it comes to reining in oil and gas methane, EPA doesn’t have many other choices. And that’s what it’s expected to do in rules for new and existing oil and gas infrastructure that could be finalized next year. “Measures to reduce that pollution from oil and gas sources are very traditional, at-the-source, technology-based controls that are highly cost-effective,” said Peter Zalzal, an attorney with the Environmental Defense Fund. “These fall at the very center of the types of measures EPA has put in place over time to address pollution generally, and also specifically from the oil and gas sector.” This fall’s methane supplemental rule will flesh out EPA’s initial proposal for new and existing oil and gas methane that was released in November as United Nations climate talks were getting underway in Glasgow, Scotland. That draft provided a preamble for the coming regulations, which will expend on 2016 rules that targeted methane at new sources throughout the oil and gas supply chain. The coming rules will extend to existing infrastructure as well.

This climate approach could win John Roberts' approval - Environmental lawyers pushing for long-shot EPA climate rules may have found an unlikely ally: Supreme Court Chief Justice John Roberts. Roberts last month penned the opinion in the landmark climate case West Virginia v. EPA that knocked down the Obama administration’s approach to regulating greenhouse gas emissions under the Clean Air Act. But some lawyers think he signaled a willingness to allow another option — one that some environmentalists have been pushing for more than a decade as it’s been ignored or rejected by past administrations. Roberts wrote that “capping carbon dioxide emissions at a level that will force a nationwide transition away from the use of coal to generate electricity may be a sensible ‘solution to the crisis of the day.’” That line helps environmentalists’ case for using a different part of the Clean Air Act to set national limits for greenhouse gases, said Maya Golden-Krasner, climate deputy director for the Center for Biological Diversity. The Supreme Court’s 6-3 opinion in the West Virginia case found that EPA didn’t have the authority to write the Obama administration’s signature climate rule, the Clean Power Plan. Roberts wrote for the majority that “it is not plausible” that Congress gave EPA the authority to adopt “such a regulatory scheme” using Section 111(d) of the Clean Air Act. He was joined by the court’s five other conservative justices. “Basically, Justice Roberts said, ‘We’re not going to allow you, EPA, to do this major generation-shifting regulation under this one ancillary section of the Clean Air Act,” Golden-Krasner said. “But it might make sense to do it under other sections,’” like the National Ambient Air Quality Standards.

How the Senate climate bill could slash emissions 40% - A surprise climate and energy agreement between Sen. Joe Manchin and Senate Majority Leader Charles Schumer promises a large U.S. emissions cut of 40 percent that seemed out of reach just a few days ago. The announcement marked a startling reversal, breathing new life into the prospects for federal climate legislation two weeks after talks between the two senators broke down. The agreement would offer President Joe Biden a major political victory just before the midterm elections by delivering on his campaign pledge to spend hundreds of billions of dollars to boost clean energy deployment. “The Inflation Reduction Act of 2022 will make a historic down payment on deficit reduction to fight inflation, invest in domestic energy production and manufacturing, and reduce carbon emissions by roughly 40 percent by 2030,” Schumer (D-N.Y.) and Manchin (D-W.Va.) said in a statement. The bill includes $60 billion to boost domestic clean energy manufacturing, including $30 billion in production tax credits for solar panels, wind turbines, batteries and critical mineral processing. It also offers lower- and middle-income motorists a $7,500 tax credit for clean vehicles, while states and electric utilities would see $30 billion in grants and loans to expand clean energy. The bill also includes $60 billion for environmental justice communities and a fee on methane emissions that will rise to $1,500 a ton by 2026. Biden praised the deal last night, saying it’s “the action the American people have been waiting for.” “We will improve our energy security and tackle the climate crisis — by providing tax credits and investments for energy projects,” Biden said in a statement. “This will create thousands of new jobs and help lower energy costs in the future.” Experts say the United States cannot meet the emission targets of the Paris climate accord without federal action. The United States is currently on track to cut emissions 24 percent to 35 percent of 2005 levels without additional federal actions, according to a recent analysis by the Rhodium Group, a research firm. Those cuts would largely be driven by a combination of renewable energy and electric vehicles, but those estimates were highly variable and dependent on commodity prices and economic growth. Those declines in greenhouse gases would fall far short of the 50-52 percent reduction in emissions Biden targeted by the end of the decade. The bill announced yesterday also falls short of Biden’s goal, but it would bring the country closer to the president’s target. Many analysts and lawmakers were still sifting through the details of the 725-page bill last night. Still, many Democrats were eager to declare victory. Sen. Ron Wyden, the Oregon Democrat who leads the Senate Finance Committee, hailed the bill as a “historic victory.” “For the first time, the tax code is going to reward emissions reductions, and encourage the development of new clean energy technologies as soon as they come online. No longer will Congress need to legislate technology by technology, making it easier to bring new technologies to market,” Wyden said in a statement. “Importantly, this is permanent energy policy. Congress will no longer need to extend these incentives every few years, giving companies and states certainty to plan clean energy projects and create jobs.” The agreement, called the “Inflation Reduction Act of 2022,” offers $433 billion in new spending, with $369 billion of that funding going toward climate change and energy security. Some of that money be used as tax credits for renewable energy, hydrogen, nuclear and offshore wind. The bill would raise $739 billion in revenue, most of it through an increase in the corporate tax rate to 15 percent ($313 billion) and prescription drug reform ($288 billion).

Green hydrogen prices have nearly tripled as energy costs climb: S&P - The cost of electrolytic hydrogen from renewable energy spiked as high as $16.80/kg in late July, three times recent price norms, according to S&P Global Commodity Insights. Because hydrogen must be derived from inputs such as natural gas or renewable electricity, the cost of hydrogen rises alongside these resources, according to Alan Hayes, head of energy transition pricing for S&P Global Commodity Insights. Surging energy costs in the Electric Reliability Council of Texas market have driven the largest hydrogen price hikes, Hayes said. In spite of recent price trends, long-term interest in hydrogen as an alternative energy resource continues to grow, according to Brian Murphy, a senior analyst covering hydrogen and low carbon fuels for S&P Global Commodity Insights.The cost of hydrogen from U.S. electrolyzers shot up to $16.80/kg in July as a result of energy price hikes that took place in the ERCOT market during a heatwave between July 6 and July 12, according to data from S&P Global Commodity Insights. Electrolytic hydrogen is derived from water and electricity, especially excess renewable energy, to create a carbon-free fuel source. This means hydrogen prices fluctuate alongside electricity prices, Murphy said.The vast majority of hydrogen produced today is derived from natural gas, rather than electrolysis. Overseas, prices for this conventional hydrogen have also experienced spikes to twice their typical levels — in excess of $10/kg — since the beginning of the year, according to S&P Global Commodity Insights. The cost of conventional hydrogen has remained more stable on the U.S. Gulf Coast. For conventional hydrogen, sometimes called “gray” hydrogen, prices correspond to the availability and cost of natural gas, Hayes said.“Anything that happens in the [natural] gas markets has an immediate and direct impact” on hydrogen, Hayes said. Regions where both natural gas prices and electricity prices have spiked have experienced “the double whammy of all feasible production routes being impacted by gas and related power prices,” he said.

Hydrogen blends higher than 5% raise leak, embrittlement risks for natural gas pipelines: California PUC - Blending more than 5% hydrogen into existing natural gas pipelines raises the chance of leaks and the embrittlement of steel pipelines, the California Public Utilities Commission said Thursday.“Hydrogen blends above 5% could require modifications of appliances such as stoves and water heaters to avoid leaks and equipment malfunction,” the CPUC said.The CPUC issued the findings of the University of California at Riverside’s Hydrogen Blending Impacts Study, an independent study it commissioned pursuant to Senate Bill 1369 and as part of the CPUC’s ongoing renewable gas rulemaking.“The study represents a critical step in considering renewable hydrogen as a component in California’s statewide decarbonization strategy,” the CPUC said.The study examined operational and safety issues related to injecting hydrogen into existing gas pipelines at various percentages “to help California establish the standards and interconnection protocols for possibly injecting renewable hydrogen into natural gas pipelines,” the CPUC said.Hydrogen blends of up to 5% in the natural gas stream are generally safe, the study found.Hydrogen blends greater than 20% “present a higher likelihood of permeating plastic pipes, which can increase the risk of gas ignition outside the pipeline,” the CPUC said.The study concluded that additional study is needed on blending hydrogen into the state’s gas system to ensure its safety and called for real-world demonstrations to build on the findings “and determine the appropriate blend percentage suitable to mitigate operational risks such as ignition.”“This study provides additional insight into the possibilities and limits of California’s pipeline infrastructure as we explore options for supplying zero-carbon energy to hard-to-decarbonize applications,” CPUC Commissioner Clifford Rechtschaffen said in a statement.

Unprecedented Heat And Stressed Grids Make Dangerous Power Outages Increasingly Likely -The electric bill Chantel Watkins pays every month costs more than a week of groceries for her family of four. Yet at any given moment, the power might flicker off, setting in motion a series of expensive and potentially deadly events. Depending on how long it takes for electricity to be restored, the food might spoil in the fridge. If there’s heavy rain, like last year, the basement of her townhouse on Detroit’s East Side might flood with the electric sump pump disabled. If her partner or 11-year-old stepson have an asthma attack, especially if the power goes out during a lung-constricting heat wave, she might need to call an ambulance, since the breathing machines they use need power and don’t have batteries. Millions of people across the United States may soon join Watkins in teetering on the edge between modernity and darkness. The patchwork of power grids that kept the country’s lights on for much of the last century is dangerously strained. Extreme weather and growing electricity use are demanding more of the grid at just the moment when the supply of 24/7 power is shrinking. With heat waves already roasting broad swaths of the nation, this summer’s brutal forecasts mean rolling blackouts are more likely than at any other point in living memory ― and the risk only gets worse by the year.In Texas this month, where ideologically guided deregulation caused rolling blackouts last year that left hundreds dead, the grid operator urged customers to cut back on power use as demand surged. In New York City, where a nuclear plant that once provided the bulk of the five boroughs’ zero-carbon power shut down last year, the local power utility sent text messages last week urging ratepayers to cut back amid a heat wave. In California, rolling blackouts have become a feature of wildfire season as the utilities prefer shutting down power lines to the legal liability of potentially having some equipment spark a blaze.Of the country’s nine grid regions, none is more vulnerable this year than the Midcontinent Independent System Operator (MISO). It covers Watkins and the 42 million other people living in 15 states along the Mississippi River, from Louisiana to Michigan and beyond, into the Canadian province of Manitoba.

MISO approves large grid expansion, paving way for renewables The Midwest grid operator approved 18 new high-voltage transmission lines yesterday, setting the stage for adding 53 gigawatts of renewable energy to the grid. The decision marks the most U.S. power lines ever approved at once and was hailed by climate advocates as a model for the nation. The board of directors for the Midcontinent Independent System Operator (MISO) greenlit the $10.3 billion investment in the tranche of lines. Expected to come online beginning in 2028, the projects are part of MISO’s broader effort to integrate new generation resources and boost the resilience of the grid system as it grapples with extreme weather fueled by climate change. MISO manages the grid in 15 states across the Midwest and parts of the South. The lines will help make up for the 50 gigawatts of aging resources — primarily coal-fired power plants — that are shutting down, said Aubrey Johnson, vice president of system planning and competitive transmission at MISO. “The generational resource fleet is undergoing broad and rapid changes. At the same time, we’re seeing increased frequency of extreme weather events,” Johnson said during the MISO board meeting. “Those, along with other factors, create the need for new backbone transmission infrastructure.” Large, high-voltage power lines are notoriously difficult to get built because of outdated and inefficient planning processes, challenges with siting the lines, and clashes over who should pay for them, according to clean energy advocates and utilities. Federal regulators are trying to address those issues through a series of new rules for the transmission system. Experts say that such transmission projects are necessary for states to achieve their clean energy goals and to slash emissions at the pace needed to avoid the most severe climate change impacts. “Not only does MISO need this, but our nation needs this as a model for how to move forward in building out our transmission grid in response to industry needs, market forces and customer choices,” Lauren Azar, a consultant and adviser at the Sustainable FERC Project, said in a public comment to the board yesterday. All of the projects approved will be built in MISO’s Midwest subregion, including Michigan, Wisconsin, Iowa and Minnesota. The costs of the lines will be borne exclusively by customers in that subregion, the grid operator said.

Biden launches plan to bring solar to low-income homes - The Biden administration unveiled a new effort on Wednesday to hook up low-income residents with solar power — a move that could allow communities that have long been shut out of the fast-growing market for renewable power to reduce their utility bills. The move, shared earlier with POLITICO by an agency official, is the latest by President Joe Biden to focus on executive actions to reach his ambitious climate goals after plans to pass hundreds of billions worth of clean energy incentives collapsed in the Senate. The initiative would connect participants in a federal program that subsidizes energy costs for low-income residents with developers of community solar projects, which sell subscriptions to households for renewable power with the promise of lowering their monthly electricity bills. The Biden administration has big aspirations for the program, projecting it could spur the development of 134 gigawatts of new solar power capacity nationwide, the agency official said. To put that in perspective, total U.S. solar capacity today sits at 97.2 gigawatts, according to the Energy Department. And it could lead to sizable savings, too: DOE estimated participants in the five initial pilot project states and the District of Columbia alone would save more than $1 billion on their energy bills annually. “For many reasons, certain segments of our society are unable to participate in the benefits of solar energy and the savings potentially that flow from that,” the agency official said, speaking on condition of anonymity to discuss the plan before agencies had given final approval. The news comes as consumers in the U.S. and across the world are facing rising energy costs, largely from spiking fossil fuel prices, including natural gas, the leading source of electricity in the U.S. Expanding community solar is likely necessary to h

Surging temperatures are good for solar panels, right? The answer is: It's complicated - Last week saw temperatures in the U.K. surge, with highs of over 40 degrees Celsius (104 degrees Fahrenheit) recorded for the first time ever. The news out of the U.K. — which experienced a number of significant weather-related disruptions — came as other parts of Europe grappled with a heatwave that caused fires, delays to travel, and death. On July 20, Solar Energy UK, citing data from Sheffield Solar's PV Live site, said the country's solar power output had "met up to a quarter of the UK's power demand." The trade association added that, across 24 hours, solar had "provided an estimated 66.9 gigawatt-hours, or 8.6% of the UK's power needs."Many would think the scorching heat of the past few days would represent the ultimate sweet spot for solar photovoltaic systems, which directly convert light from the sun into electricity.The reality is a bit more complex. According to Solar Energy UK, the U.K.'s solar capacity reaches an optimum level of output at temperatures measuring roughly 25C."For every degree either side of that, it is lowered by about only 0.5%, though newer modules have improved performance," it says.In a statement, Alastair Buckley, who is professor of organic electronics at the University of Sheffield and leads Sheffield Solar, said this was "why we never see peak output in midsummer — peak national output is always in April and May when it's cool and sunny." Sheffield Solar is part of the university's Grantham Centre for Sustainable Futures.Buckley's argument is borne out by the current record for solar generation in the U.K. It stands at 9.89 GW and was reached on April 22, 2021, according to data from Sheffield Solar.The temperatures of last week were far higher than 25C, but the overall effect was, it would seem, not too disruptive. A significant ramp up would be required for major issues to arise, according to Solar Energy UK.It says panel temperatures are determined by a range of factors: what it calls "radiative heating from the sun," ambient temperature and the cooling effects of wind. "Losing 20% efficiency, considered a significant amount, would require them to reach a huge 65°C."

Unexploded bomb discovery flags growing challenge for offshore wind - The first large offshore wind farms in the United States are unearthing unexploded munitions from World War II, representing a potentially growing challenge for both developers and U.S. policymakers as the emerging industry anchors off America’s coasts. While surveying the seafloor in the waters of Rhode Island’s Narragansett Bay in recent weeks, the Danish firm Ørsted found 11 unexploded weapons, prompting a warning to mariners by the Coast Guard. “They range from 6-inch artillery shells to a 250-pound bomb,” said Ryan Ferguson, a spokesperson for Ørsted. In addition to Ørsted’s discovery, a shipping crew earlier this month found one similar object at the site of Vineyard Wind’s planned 62-turbine wind farm off the coast of Massachusetts. Believed to be World War II-era naval ordnance, it was buried roughly 100 feet beneath the seabed and weighed more than 900 pounds, according to reporting by the magazine New Scientist. These finds are expected to be the first of many as the offshore wind industry grows rapidly in the United States, representing a challenge to U.S. policymakers who must decide whether to leave the hazards in place or dispose of them. Reported to federal agencies like the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management and NOAA, as well as the U.S. military branches that operate offshore, the discoveries will add to an existing map of unexploded munitions up and down the Atlantic seaboard. Known sites range from nearby hotbeds like Massachusetts’ Nomans Land island — once used by the Navy for target practice — to dumping grounds where the United States disposed of its post-war mountains of munitions after World War II. But other uncharted sites may exist, where sea and sand have moved historic hazards or unethical shippers dumped them outside established locations. It’s long been an “out of sight, out of mind” situation, explained Andy Elvin, a former Royal Navy expert in unexploded ordnance and CEO of the American arm of EODEX. That company helps industries like offshore wind, telecommunications and pipelines dispose of the seabed hazards, often by a method that burns up the explosives without detonating them. Elvin noted that the problem is a serious one not just in the United States but in Europe, the center of World War II bombing campaigns.

Pieces of Chinese Long March 5B rocket expected to hit Earth’s surface this weekend - A massive booster from the Chinese Long March 5B rocket, launched on July 24, 2022, is expected to re-enter Earth’s atmosphere over the weekend, with some of its pieces surviving the descent and hitting the surface. The rocket delivered the Wentian experiment module to China’s Tiangong Space Station.

• Spacetrack Directory Name: CZ-5B R/B (ID 53240)
• The predicted reentry window is 17:15 UTC on July 30, 2022 ± 1 hour

While this debris has considerable size and weight (56 m / 183 feet, weighing 22.5 metric tons), the chance of some of its leftovers hitting anyone on the ground is very slim. However, since there might be 5 to 9 tons of debris hitting the surface and because previous boosters from this type of rocket hit populated areas, a major concern is developing worldwide.“Due to the uncontrolled nature of its descent, there is a non-zero probability of the surviving debris landing in a populated area,” Aerospace Corporation, whose space debris experts are tracking the re-entry path, said.1 “Over 88 percent of the world’s population lives under the reentry’s potential debris footprint. If this sounds familiar, it’s because similar uncontrolled reentries of Long March rockets occurred in 2020 and 2021.” In 2021, the rocket body of Long March 5B rocked crossed several populated areas and landed in the Indian Ocean near the Maldives. But in 2020, it dumped debris off the Ivory Coast and scattered metal pipes and other material across several villages. Luckily, there were no injuries.This stage and its two predecessors, launched in May 2020 and May 2021, are the sixth-, seventh-, and eighth-largest objects to ever reenter, Aerospace Corporation said, adding that the list of other comparably-sized objects that have reentered includes early space stations — like Mir, Skylab, Salyut 6 and 7 — and the Saturn V second stage that launched Skylab. These represent a mix of controlled and uncontrolled reentries, however. “Generally, for an upper stage, we see small and medium tanks survive more or less intact, and large engine components. The large tanks and the skin of this core stage are likely to come apart. We will also see lightweight items such as insulation fall out. The melting point of the materials used will make a difference in what remains.”

Biden executive order on power system cybersecurity leaves critical operations vulnerable, experts say -- A Ukraine war-provoked Russian cyberattack on the U.S. power system has not happened, but experts agree the threat is real because of a key shortcoming in cybersecurity preparations.The 2021 Colonial Pipeline shutdown that disrupted Eastern U.S. gasoline deliveries hinted at the danger of cyberattacks on the energy sector. A May 12, 2021, Biden executive order, requiring major power system cybersecurity actions, implicitly acknowledged that Russia’s 2015 attack on Ukraine’s power system can happen here. But current and planned responses to the Biden order may not be enough to protect electricity delivery, cyber specialists said.Russia may have so far withheld cyber warfare against the U.S. and its allies because of “a balance of power issue,” OPSWAT operations technology and industrial cybersecurity expert Oren Dvoskin said. “If a cyberattack is stopped, whoever stopped it knows the adversary, which is why nation-states are careful about if and when to deploy cyber weapons,” he said.But the cyber threat to the energy sector goes beyond attacks to communications networks like the recent headlined ransomware attacks, analysts said. Using the growing internet access of power system operations that allow companies to monitor and control engineering processes online, attackers could disrupt critical infrastructure to create environmental devastation, losses of life, and severe economic impacts, they said. Power system “security and safety” depends on “the reliability and accuracy of sensor data that informs operations,” Applied Control Solutions Managing Partner and Cybersecurity Analyst Joe Weiss told Utility Dive. And “Russia, China, and Iran are aware of the lack of cybersecurity in process sensors and have access to them” in critical electric system operations, he said. The recent discovery of cryptocurrency’s vulnerability is a reminder that cybersecurity requires constant attention. But threats can be minimized by first recognizing protections to internet technology networks are inadequate to protect operational technology hardware, and then putting the best people, processes and technologies in place to protect electricity delivery, cyber analysts said.

EV battery plants in US anticipate boost from $2.5B federal loan -The U.S. lags behind China in the capacity to build the batteries it will need to meet its growing demand for electric vehicles. The U.S. Department of Energy is planning to loan a U.S. battery manufacturing consortium $2.5 billion to help change that. DOE’s Loan Programs Office announced Monday that it has made a conditional commitment to lend the money to Ultium Cells, a joint venture of U.S. automaker General Motors and South Korean battery giant LG Energy Solutions. If approved by the DOE, the loan could help Ultium finance the battery-pack gigafactories it’s building in Michigan, Ohio and Tennessee. It would be the first loan for battery-pack manufacturing from the Loan Programs Office’sAdvanced Technology Vehicles Manufacturing loan program, which loaned a total of about $8 billion to Ford, Nissan and Tesla between 2007 and 2010. Since then, EVs have grown from a niche product to a primary focus for many automakers in the U.S. and around the world, as governments have set mandates aimed at ensuring that fossil-fueled cars, vans and trucks can be replaced with zero-emissions vehicles quickly enough to forestall the worst harms of climate change. President Biden has set a goal for half of all U.S. auto sales to be electric or plug-in hybrid vehicles by 2030, a target that will require a massive scale-up of EVs and battery production.​“Those vehicles should be, to the best of our ability, made here in the United States — and the batteries should be made here, and as many of the components as possible should be made here,” said Jigar Shah, head of DOE’s Loan Programs Office.GM has pledged to shift to an emissions-free lineup of cars and other light-duty vehicles by2035 and build 1 million EVs in North America by 2025, and it has committed to invest $35billion through 2025 to hit its targets. Ultium’s battery packs are at the heart of GM’s EVstrategy, as they’re designed to be interchangeably configured for a range of EVs from cars to heavy trucks. GM plans to spend $6.5 billion at its Michigan EV factories and $2.3 billion apiece on its Ultium gigafactories in Warren, Ohio and Spring Hill, Tennessee. Those factories will have a combined annual production capacity of more than 130 gigawatt-hours of batteries when they start operations between this year and the end of 2024, Ultium spokesperson Brooke Waid said in a Monday email. That’s much larger than the estimated 60 gigawatt-hours of battery manufacturing capacity the U.S. had as of 2020, according to analysis from Benchmark Mineral Intelligence. But it’s just a fraction of the 500 to 800 gigawatt-hours of battery capacity that will be needed to hit the Biden administration’s 2030 target, Shah noted. For U.S. automakers ​“to be able to secure supply for their customers, they need to get involved in making sure this battery manufacturing [capacity] gets built,” Shah said.

DOE offers $2.5B loan to boost GM's battery plans - The Department of Energy said yesterday it would loan $2.5 billion to automaker General Motors Co. and battery maker LG Chem Ltd. to supercharge their construction of three American factories that will make essential parts of electric vehicle batteries. The loan, if finalized by the DOE’s Loan Programs Office (LPO), could be the first of its kind in more than a decade — early in the Obama administration, similar federal loans were used to build factories by Nissan Motor Corp. and Tesla Inc. Those earlier loans were crucial to the launch of the first mass-market electric cars, like the Nissan Leaf and the Tesla Model S. But today’s landscape is different, and it’s unclear if federal aid will have the same level of impact. GM has aggressive plans to create a full slate of EVs and “is going to do this whether they have this money or not,” said Alan Baum, an independent Detroit auto analyst. Nonetheless, he added, a big federal loan reduces risk for the makers and could press the accelerator pedal on production. Both are important at a pivotal time for both the global climate and the auto industry. GM and its domestic rival Ford want to build the capacity to produce millions of EVs and match the momentum of industry leader Tesla. Policymakers want automakers to reach that scale in order to curb tailpipe emissions, while also building out a domestic supply chain that competes with China’s. In a statement, Jigar Shah, the director of the LPO, called the loan “the latest proof point of the Department’s ongoing efforts to help build a domestic supply chain to meet the growing demand for electric vehicles. These new manufacturing facilities will create thousands of good-paying jobs across three states while enabling improvements in existing lithium-ion battery technologies.” The recipient is Ultium Cells LLC, the joint venture established by GM and LG in 2019. The company is building three plants that together could employ more than 5,000 factory workers. The first, in Lordstown, Ohio, was unveiled in 2019 and is nearing completion. The second, in Spring Hill, Tenn., began construction in the middle of last year, and two weeks ago got a visit from Labor Secretary Marty Walsh. The third site is in Lansing, Mich., and started construction this summer. The cells will be assembled into packs, and then built into vehicles, at GM’s assembly plants. The first of those factories dedicated to EVs are in the Detroit area.

To preserve jobs, UAW head says battery plants must be union - — If the United Auto Workers union can’t organize workers at new electric-vehicle battery factories that will supply Detroit’s three automakers, the union’s future would be in serious doubt. Share with The Post: What’s one way you’ve felt the impact of inflation? Ray Curry, president of the 372,000-member UAW, says union representation at the battery plants is critical, given that the major automakers are staking their futures on the widespread adoption of electric vehicles. “It’s going to be key to lock down that type of new technology,” Curry said in an interview with The Associated Press on the eve of the union’s convention in Detroit this week. “Everybody is dependent upon what happens out of that bargaining.” General Motors, Ford and Stellantis have announced plans to build seven U.S. factories in joint ventures with battery makers. The plants are expected to employ thousands and to supply power for electric vehicles that the automakers say will account for as much as half their U.S. sales by 2030. EVs now constitute only about 5% of the market. During the years-long transition from combustion engines to electricity, Curry said, thousands of workers who now manufacture engines and transmissions will need jobs. He argued that these workers should receive top assembly-line wages, now around $32 an hour, without any jobs lost to the technology change. Any decision on union representation will be part of contract talks with the three automakers that will start next summer.

One barrier to electric cars: Slow fleet turnover - New research explores a hurdle sometimes missed in the excitement about the electric vehicle growth: People don't buy cars very often. The peer-reviewed work analyzes a vast array of studies on EV growth levels that would be consistent with Paris Agreement temperature targets. "The slow speed of fleet turnover presents a substantial barrier to deep decarbonization," states the analysis, a chapter in a new book on energy transition.It models targets for boosting electric vehicle and other zero-emissions vehicle (ZEV) sales and phasing out sales of conventional gasoline- and diesel-powered cars, such as the U.K. target of 2030.It sets this against the average lifetime of internal combustion cars, which in the U.S. is 16 years. Smush them together and there's a big "turnover lag." "Achieving a ZEV share consistent with 1.5°C pathways would require a combination of a relatively early ban by around 2030 and an average non-ZEV lifetime shorter than 10 years." More aggressive policies and incentives that encourage faster turnover are needed for pathways to limit warming to 1.5°C and 2°C. "People generally tend to underestimate how difficult it is to change a stock variable, like all cars on the road. There is too much focus on the flow, or vehicle sales," Emil Dimanchev of the Norwegian University of Science and Technology, lead author of the chapter, said via email.

Climate bill would create roadblock for full EV tax credit - The climate deal struck yesterday by Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer and Sen. Joe Manchin would significantly expand consumer tax credits for electric vehicles by offering a $7,500 tax credit to people buying an EV made with a certain percentage of minerals mined or processed in nations with U.S. free trade agreements, or recycled in North America.But there’s a catch: The EV supply chain required for the tax credit doesn’t exist.Minerals required to make market-ready EV batteries — lithium, cobalt, graphite and nickel — are primarily mined, refined and processed in China and Russia or in less adversarial nations like the Democratic Republic of Congo and Indonesia that aren’t parties to U.S. free trade agreements (Greenwire, Feb. 24).That tax-credit provision is sparking concerns from climate activists and EV promoters that the much-lauded Senate bill could actually limit the effectiveness of its electric vehicle tax credit by putting an impossibly high hurdle in front of automakers.“These things aren’t in place, and might not be for more than a decade,” said Morgan Bazilian, director of the Payne Institute at the Colorado School of Mines. The requirement, he added, “may limit the amount of tax credits that get the full amount.” There is currently a $7,500 tax credit for consumers buying electric vehicles, but it is limited to 200,000 vehicles sold per manufacturer, resulting in some automakers hitting that cap and no longer benefiting from the credit.The reconciliation bill would expand this benefit by lifting the limit on how many vehicles can qualify for the credit. President Joe Biden and many congressional Democrats wanted to remove this cap because it could hypothetically supercharge consumer EV purchases and included language doing so in the House version of the “Build Back Better Act” that passed last year (Climatewire, July 21).If signed into law, the bill would require EVs by 2024 to have batteries made with at least 40 percent minerals extracted or processed by a nation that is party to a U.S. free trade agreement, with the percentage measured by the value of the total minerals in the battery. Minerals recycled in North America could also be included in the percentage requirement.The critical minerals content requirement for batteries would increase to 80 percent by 2027. A similar requirement would apply to battery components, requiring 100 percent of battery components in qualifying EVs be made in North America by 2029.

Senate climate deal: Boost or barrier for EVs? - The Senate’s sweeping climate and energy bill would do nothing less than reshape how cars are made in the electric age, offering automakers nearly irresistible inducements to build the supply chains in America — or more to the point, not in China. In reaching for this goal and a laundry list of others related to electric vehicles, the bill — which resulted from a deal between Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) and Energy and Natural Resources Chair Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) — invents new rules that the government has never applied to vehicles, leaving some experts scratching their heads over how it is supposed to work in practice. “This bill is about trying to build domestic manufacturing capacity for EVs,” said Nick Nigro, the founder of Atlas Public Policy, an electric-vehicle consultancy. He and other EV advocates applauded the ambition and scope of the bill. “It accelerates the market and creates more market certainty,” said Ben Prochazka, the executive director of the Electrification Coalition, a nonprofit that advocates for EV adoption. However, some congressional watchers wondered if the proposal, called the “Inflation Reduction Act of 2022,” might have created unrealistic goals that could end up slowing the uptake of EVs. The bill’s introduction came during a head-turning week when Congress has, after decades of inaction, embraced industrial policy to counter China. On Wednesday, the Senate passed a vast $280 billion bill to stimulate domestic manufacturing of computer chips, and yesterday that bill passed the House of Representatives and is on its way to President Biden for signature (E&E News PM, July 28). The Manchin-Schumer deal is also about a lot more than just manufacturing. It dedicates billions of dollars of tax credits and spending programs that would create a market for used EVs, build charging stations in disadvantaged neighborhoods and more. The centerpiece of the bill is a monumental change to the electric-vehicle tax credit, which is the U.S. government’s primary lever to encourage Americans to buy EVs. In essence, the changes make the tax credit an extension of American industrial policy by requiring much of the battery to be sourced all the way back to the mine either in America or an allied country. The rules align with a widely shared policy objective in Washington that the U.S. needs to develop its own supply chain for EV batteries that doesn’t rely on China. But some experts called the aggressive timeline of the tax credit nearly impossible. “There isn’t a single car in the world that qualifies for it right now,” Instead of being limited in how many vehicles they could sell, automakers would have to meet stringent manufacturing and content requirements for their batteries. Half of the incentive — $3,750 — would be available only to automakers whose batteries rely on critical minerals made either in the U.S. or countries with which the U.S. has free-trade agreements. The other $3,750 requires the battery’s components to be manufactured and assembled in North America.

Local energy collaboration leads the Appalachian on clean power generation – General Hydrogen Corp., a division of CGI International LLC, one of the only privately held hydrogen manufacturers in the U.S., and Long Ridge Energy Terminal announced a successful test of a new hydrogen-natural gas blending process.General Hydrogen Corp.’s plant in Proctor, West Virginia, is supplying Long Ridge Energy’s 485-megawatt natural gas-fired power plant with hydrogen gas. Long Ridge is the first GE H-class plant worldwide in commercial operation to blend hydrogen in its fuel mix. The plant can burn between 15% and 20% hydrogen by volume in the gas stream initially and is expected to have the capability to utilize up to 100% hydrogen over time.. “With our capability to supply hydrogen gas, we are playing an integral part in the process to drive the transition to a cleaner energy future for the region and beyond.” In April, Long Ridge Energy hosted a hydrogen commissioning ceremony at its site in Hannibal. In attendance were federal, state and local elected leaders from Ohio and West Virginia and representatives from the U.S. Department of Energy and Appalachian Regional Commission.As part of the bipartisan infrastructure law, Congress approved $8 billion for regional hydrogen hubs, including one in the Appalachian natural gas region. In March, Long Ridge responded to the Department of Energy’s request for information and is awaiting DOE to release its final Hydrogen Hub Request for Proposal.

 West Virginia bars five financial firms for deemed fossil fuel 'boycotts' (Reuters) - West Virginia has barred five major financial institutions, including Blackrock Inc and JPMorgan Chase & Co, from new state business after determining that they were boycotting the fossil fuel industry. Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley and Wells Fargo & Co are also barred on similar grounds, according to State Treasurer Riley Moore. Spokespeople for Wells Fargo and Morgan Stanley said the banks disagreed with the decision, and a spokesperson for JPMorgan called it “disconnected from the facts.” A BlackRock spokesperson said it also disagreed with the decision. “BlackRock does not boycott energy companies, and we do not pursue divestment from sectors and industries as a policy,” the spokesperson said. Goldman Sachs did not immediately comment. The move to kick out some of the world’s largest financial institutions, including the world’s largest asset manager, Blackrock, comes as Republicans are ramping up pressure on Wall Street to step back from efforts to address climate change and tackle other social issues. Reuters had previously reported that states led by Republicans are rapidly expanding their efforts to punish financial firms for “woke” stances on issues like fossil fuels and guns. West Virginia is the first state to move to kick out Wall Street firms, although some other states, including Texas, have enacted similar laws. Moore said the firms were barred after a review of their policies and public statements found them to have policies “categorically limiting commercial relations with energy companies engaged in certain coal mining.” He is authorized to prohibit financial firms from new state banking business under a law the state passed earlier this year. Six banks were initially identified by West Virginia as potential boycotters of the fossil fuel industry. All the firms responded and disputed the claim, while noting they are often criticized by climate activists for doing too little to fight climate change. One of them, U.S. Bancorp, was taken off the list after the bank removed policies against financing coal production, according to Moore. A bank spokesperson said it was pleased to not be excluded from the state, but that its policies were in place prior to the passage of the new West Virginia law.M

Regulators block deposition of FirstEnergy’s former ethics chief - Ohio Capital Journal - A state regulator granted a request from FirstEnergy Corp., purportedly made at the behest of federal prosecutors investigating the company’s lobbying practices, to cut off a state watchdog agency’s deposition of the company’s former top ethics officer last week.The Akron-based utility company last summer admitted to bribing two state officials with about $64 million in exchange for favorable legislative and regulatory treatment. FirstEnergy is now cooperating with the U.S. Department of Justice’s criminal investigation into former GOP House Speaker Larry Householder and alleged conspirators.Householder has pleaded not guilty and awaits trial early next year.State and federal regulators, meanwhile, have waged parallel investigations of their own. An administrative judge with the Public Utilities Commission of Ohio, whose former chairman has been accused by FirstEnergy of taking its $4.3 million bribe, granted the company’s request to cut off the interview July 21.At the deposition, the Ohio Consumers’ Counsel — a state agency that represents ratepayers’ interests in electric cases — asked questions to FirstEnergy’s former Chief Ethics Officer Ebony Yeboah-Amankwah. The questions involved actions of former PUCO chairman Sam Randazzo, an entity he allegedly used to receive FirstEnergy’s bribe, the legislation at the root of the prosecution, and the firing of the company’s former CEO.In fallout from the scandal, Yeboah-Amankwah and two other executives were “separated from FirstEnergy due to inaction and conduct that the Board determined was influenced by the improper tone at the top,” the company said in October 2020. Documents filed in a related case show invoices addressed to Yeboah-Amankwah from Randazzo’s business. According to a FirstEnergy lawyer’s statements to a PUCO judge, the OCC’s questions were at “the heart of the ongoing U.S. attorney office prosecution and investigations.” After pausing the deposition, he said he called Emily Glatfelter, an assistant U.S. attorney leading the prosecution, who purportedly objected to the line of questioning. Other parties involved in the deposition took issue with FirstEnergy’s effort on several points. For one, they argued their lines of questioning were aligned with investigating alleged corporate separation violations from FirstEnergy. For two, they questioned why the PUCO should take FirstEnergy’s word about a purported conversation with a prosecutor to which no one else was party.

EOG Resources Returns to Utica Oil Window After Exiting in 2020 --In 2020 EOG Resources, one of the largest oil and gas drillers in the U.S. (with operations in Trinidad and China too), sold *all* of its Marcellus assets, which were located in Bradford County, PA, to Tilden Resources for $130 million (see EOG Resources Sells Marcellus Assets for $130M, Exits Basin). EOG left the M-U building, so to speak. But what’s this? EOG is ramping up its drilling program and increasing its acreage once again in the Marcellus/Utica, this time along the edge of the Utica’s oil window in Ohio, according to an investigation by The Capitol Forum (TCF).

16 New Shale Well Permits Issued for PA-OH-WV Jul 18-24 | Marcellus Drilling News - For the week of July 18-24, the three Marcellus/Utica states issued just 16 permits to drill new shale wells, down from 43 the prior week. Pennsylvania and West Virginia both issued eight new permits each. Ohio issued a big, fat, goose egg. PA issued three permits each to Greylock Energy (Green County) and Pennsylvania General Energy (Tioga County), and one each to EQT and Seneca Resources. WV issued four permits each to Jay-Bee Oil & Gas (Tyler County) and Tug Hill Operating (Wetzel County).

Shale M&A active in 2022, but not in Appalachia - Mergers and acquisitions in the oil and gas industry remain at an active level in the first half of 2022, but for the most part the deals have all been outside of Appalachia after a relatively active 2021. There have been $12 billion in reported M&A deals in oil and gas during the second quarter of 2022, down slightly from the $14.7 billion in the first quarter, according a report from energy analysis firm Enverus Intelligence Research. That's despite a volatile energy market so far in 2022 with commodity prices being up and the stock market on a roller coaster. Enverus said that most of the deals done in 2022 have been involving private equity firms wanting to exit amid high commodity prices; the deals represented about 80% of the $12 billion in total in the second quarter. Just under half of the deals involved the Permian Basin in Texas and almost another third involved multiple basins. "The spike in commodity prices that followed Russia's invasion of Ukraine temporarily stalled M&A as buyers and sellers disagreed on the value of assets," said Andrew Dittmar, Enverus Intelligence Research director. High oil and gas prices are what has led to the private equity firms selling, Dittmar said. Yet Appalachia, which has been a region where some big M&A were made in 2021, has been relatively quiet in 2022. There was $2.8 billion in the first quarter of 2022 but nothing reported in the second quarter, following about $4 billion in deals in 2021. Dittmar told the Business Times that there's no shortage of potential acquisition opportunities in the Marcellus and Utica shale. But he said that pricing is one of the factors that might be holding things back. "The bid/ask spread, which is persistently high across the E&P space, is even more challenging on the gas side of the business given higher volatility for that commodity," Dittmar said. "Additionally buyers in Appalachia in particular have to be aware of constraints on pipeline capacity. It limits your ability to pay for an asset if you are unable tap inventory because you don't have the takeaway capacity to move the gas out." Dittmar said that it might also be that there are fewer potential buyers in Appalachia than there is in the Permian Basin. The Permian Basin has the highest percentage of deals in the second quarter, as companies invest more into the prolific basin as demand continues to outpace supply domestically and around the country. The largest was the $7 billion merger between Colgate Energy Partners III and Centennial Resource Development, in the Permian. A $1.3 billion deal between Grey Rock Energy Partners and Executive Network Partnering Corp. will create Granite Ridge Resources. Dittmar said that he believes private equity companies will continue to be sellers in the high price environment. “The challenge is finding buyers willing to pay their asking prices. Public E&Ps remain chiefly concerned with getting capital back to shareholders and being too aggressive on M&A can smack of growth investors don’t want," he said. "That said, the flood of offerings should create opportunities for shrewd deal makers to unlock value with M&A and, if we avoid a major recession, the fundamentals for energy prices still look strong.”

Billions Spent on Abandoned Oil Wells Scratch at Ignored Problem -- Cheryl Thomas stood in the woods near her northwestern Pennsylvania home on a rainy afternoon in June, watching black crude drip from an abandoned oil well just steps from a creek leading to the Allegheny River. She and her husband have counted about 60 derelict oil wells on their land east of Bradford, where companies began drilling one of America’s first oil fields in 1871.The couple live with that legacy daily: Oil and methane have leached into their water supply and they filter water from their kitchen tap. They once emptied a gallon of crude from their hot-water heater; another time, tests found such high methane levels in their water that a state inspector warned them, “Don’t have a leisurely bath with a lit candle and a cigar.”Abandoned wells are often called orphans because they were left behind by drillers before the state started regulating them in the 1950s. Pennsylvania, where the industry was born, has more than any other state—possibly hundreds of thousands.Congress is spending $4.7 billion from last year’s infrastructure law on a five-year program to clean up orphaned wells, maybe tens of thousands of them. States usually only plug a handful each year, and they’re hoping the cash will kick-start the cleanup when the money begins flowing this fall.It’s a small and unprecedented mark of environmental progress, particularly at a time when Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) said hewouldn’t support more ambitious climate legislation.“It really is an opportunity to rewrite Pennsylvania’s oil and gas well legacy,” said Kurt Klapkowski, an acting deputy secretary in the state’s Department of Environmental Protection.But the infrastructure law funding only scratches the surface of the orphan well problem. Billions more will be needed to plug all the nation’s forgotten wells. Nobody knows exactly how much—because nobody knows how many exist.States have records for about 131,000 orphan wells, mostly concentrated in Pennsylvania, Ohio and Oklahoma. The Interior Department estimates at least 3.5 million nationwide, but “the total scope of the problem is unknown,” spokesman John Grandy said.Their effects are clear: The gas and oil they leak contribute to climate change, threaten homes, and are routinely blamed for water contamination. Critics worry about the pace of the cleanup.West Virginia says its $25 million federal grant will pay to plug 160 orphaned wells, barely 1% of the roughly 15,000 abandoned wells statewide. At that rate, it would take more than 95 years to plug them all, a state spokesperson said.

Could gas leak fixes thwart climate goals? - Boston University ecologist Nathan Phillips used to push for the rapid replacement of aging pipelines, convinced that the practice was a win-win: It snuffed out natural gas leaks and protected nearby trees from those leaks. But today, Phillips — who has spent years researching leaks in the Boston area — is skeptical of such replacement, worried that it will thwart his state’s goal to achieve net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050. “I was telling people that the way to fix the problem is to replace the pipelines,” Phillips said. “Now, I completely feel opposite to that.” Phillips is among a growing number of climate advocates, researchers and state officials who worry that accelerated pipe replacement programs aimed at preventing gas leaks and explosions could complicate efforts to switch to electric heating and renewable energy. Massachusetts is among 42 states with policies that encourage gas utilities to proactively replace aging or leaking pipes, according to the American Gas Association, a trade association for gas utilities and companies. It also is among a growing number of states that aim to transition away from fossil fuels. The tension surrounding pipeline replacements and clean energy is part of a broader debate on the future of the natural gas system that heats many homes and businesses across the United States. About a dozen states have set goals to achieve net-zero greenhouse gas emissions in less than 30 years — and analysts say meeting those targets will likely mean using less natural gas. Gas utilities may ultimately have “a much smaller role” in the overall energy system of states that hit those targets, said Adithya Bhashyam, a hydrogen analyst at BloombergNEF. That means that today’s installed pipes — often made of durable, long-lasting plastic materials — could become “stranded assets,” left unused before their decadeslong life span is over. For climate advocates, that raises questions about whether it’s prudent to encourage the replacement of large networks of pipe and make ratepayers foot the bill.

N.C. pipeline caused largest U.S. gasoline spill, records say - The Colonial Pipeline released just shy of 2 million gallons of gasoline in a 2020 leak, according to new estimates that make it the largest U.S. gasoline pipeline spill on record.The spill was discovered on Aug. 14, 2020, in a suburban nature preserve near Charlotte, N.C.. But the Colonial Pipeline Co. has now determined that the leak began 18 days before that discovery — and that the amount that spilled is 30 times the original estimate of 63,000 gallons and significantly more than the last updated figure of 1.2 million gallons.The changing figures have drawn suspicion from people who live near the leak and criticism from state officials. Colonial says about three-quarters of the gasoline has been sucked out of the ground.“Plenty of people, myself included, are deeply disappointed in the 18 day delay, which we now know allowed at least two million gallons of gasoline to seep into the ground,” said state Sen. Natasha Marcus, a Democrat who represents the area where the leak occurred, in a statement to E&E News. “It’s been two years since the leak and it’s frustrating to hear that 25 percent of the spilled gasoline is still on site.”The cleanup effort is continuing and will likely continue for years, although it is far smaller than the months immediately after the spill.Colonial’s new estimate comes after a judge recently approved a consent decree between the pipeline company and the N.C. Department of Environmental Quality. The agreement required the pipeline company to provide an updated estimate on the amount of leaked gasoline and to pay nearly $5 million in penalties and investigative costs (Greenwire, July 1). Colonial, owned by subsidiaries of Koch Industries Inc., Royal Dutch Shell PLC and other investors, is a 5,500-mile system of pipe connecting Houston and New York. It delivers 100 million gallons of jet fuel, gasoline and other fuel every day. People and businesses across the Southeast and the Eastern Seaboard depend on it to supply airports, military bases and gas stations.

 Crude Oil Catastrophes Part 3: "A Tale of Two Treaties" (podcast and transcript; Parts one and two of this series give context to the Line 5 dispute and tell stories of oil transportation gone horribly wrong ) The Constitution refers to treaties with other sovereign nations as “the supreme law of the land.” But what happens when promises have been made that are potentially in conflict?Two different treaties with the U.S. could lead to very different outcomes for Line 5 – a controversial pipeline in the Great Lakes. One treaty is with Canada, promising not to disrupt the flow of hydrocarbons across the border. The other one is with Tribal nations in what’s now northern Michigan; it guarantees the right to hunt and fish throughout their ceded territory.At a Senate hearing in May, Canadian officials called on the U.S. to join them in demanding the governor of Michigan “abandon her efforts” to shut down Line 5 – an important link in a series of pipelines moving crude oil from western to eastern Canada.But Tribal nations in northern Michigan see the pipeline as a threat to their treaty rights – specifically, fishing in the Straits of Mackinac. A spill could devastate important spawning grounds for lake trout, whitefish and other species that are key to Tribal fisheries.

U.S. Oil Production Hits New 2022 Peak, but More Runway Ahead for Growth - Domestic crude output reached a new high for the year as producers continue to gradually ramp up to meet summer demand, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported Wednesday. Production climbed to 12.1 million b/d for the week ended June 24, up 100,000 b/d week/week, according to the EIA’s Weekly Petroleum Status Report (WSPR).Exploration and production (E&P) companies are trying to strike a balance between investments in long-term renewable energy projects and quenching the world’s current thirst for oil. “Global oil demand is expected to breach 100 million b/d this summer for the first time since before the pandemic,” said Rystad Energy analyst Louise Dickson. Production is on track to hold just below that level through the summer months.The Biden administration has at once pushed E&Ps to pursue greener energy and bolster crude output, causing confusion and leaving operators dubious about aggressive investment plans. Dickson noted that both U.S. producers and members of OPEC have modestly increased output this year, with supplies from Russia uncertain amid that country’s invasion of Ukraine. Western sanctions against Russia have limited its export options and required European countries to rely more on the United States and Saudi Arabia-led OPEC for crude supplies as the summer travel season heats up.Russia, the world’s third-largest oil producer, was generating about 10 million b/d of crude prior to its invasion of Ukraine. Rystad estimated that about 800,000 b/d of Russian crude capacity emerged following Western sanctions this spring. These penalties included U.S. and European Union embargoes on Kremlin-backed oil.

TotalEnergies, Borealis Start Up Texas Ethane Cracker - TotalEnergies SE and Borealis AG reported last week they have begun commercial operations at their nearly $2 billion ethane cracker in Port Arthur, TX. The companies built the ethane cracker, with an ethylene production capacity of 1 Mt/y, at TotalEnergies’ refinery in Port Arthur via their Bayport Polymers LLC 50/50 joint venture (JV). “This investment is in perfect alignment with our strategy to develop petrochemicals at our integrated platforms,” said TotalEnergies’ Bernard Pinatel, Refining & Chemicals president. “At Port Arthur, we take advantage of the abundance of ethane in the U.S.”The U.S. petrochemicals industry relies heavily on dry gas and natural gas liquids such as ethane for fuel and feedstocks, respectively. Ethylene produced at the new TotalEnergies-operated ethane cracker is to be used as feedstock to supply Baystar’s existing 400,000-t/y polyethylene (PE) units at Bayport, TX, as well as a new 625,000-t/y PE unit under construction at the Houston-area facility, the JV members said.Pinatel called the new cracker “another milestone strengthening TotalEnergies’ presence in the United States,” citing investments earlier this year in U.S. liquefied natural gas and renewable electricity.The Port Arthur project start-up marks a major step toward Baystar “becoming a fully integrated polyethylene company” aiming to grow the North American polymers market, according to Borealis.

The US has become the world's top LNG exporter as it funnels supply to European consumers at the mercy of Russia --- The US has risen to become the world's largest liquefied-natural gas exporter during the first half of 2022, according to the Energy Information Administration. According to an EIA report, US LNG exports increased by 12% in the first half of this year compared with the second half of 2021. In total, exports averaged out to 11.2 billion cubic feet a day. At least 71% of US' LNG exports went to the EU and the UK during the first five months of the year, the EIA said, as energy tensions with Russia mount. "US LNG exports continued to grow for three reasons—increased LNG export capacity, increased international natural gas and LNG prices, and increased global demand, particularly in Europe," the EIA said. Europe has been suffering lately, as it struggles to store up energy before the winter months approach due to reduced Russian supply. European natural gas prices have soared by almost 200% so far this year. Dutch TTF futures, the European benchmark, jumped more than on 10% Tuesday to trade above 180 euros per megawatt hour ($191), marking their biggest one day-rise since early July"Recently, Russia terminated the flow of natural gas via a key pipeline, Nord Stream 1, to carry out maintenance for 10 days. The temporary closure sent waves of fear among European leaders as they believed it would become permanent, which would have a dire effect on the euro area economy. After much anxiety, Russia resumed gas flows albeit at reduced levels. The reopening however hardly provided relief after Russia's state-run energy giant Gazprom said just days later it would cut natural gas flows through the pipeline to Europe to just 20% of capacity by Wednesday, down from 40% previously. Many European officials have accused Moscow of weaponizing energy after Western nations imposed aggressive sanctions on the country over its war with Ukraine. In response, the EU has had to pursue alternative sources of energy to stock up ahead of the upcoming winter months. "Since the end of last year, countries in Europe have increasingly imported more LNG to compensate for lower pipeline imports from Russia and to fill historically low natural gas storage inventories," the EIA said. The US has consequently stepped into the breach to help its EU allies, with its LNG export capacity expanding by 1.9 billion cubic feet per day since November 2021. This has partly helped offset a drop of 2.0 billion cubic feet per day in export capacity that is offline at the Freeport LNG terminal in Texas, which has been shuttered since early June after a fire broke out at the plant.

US becomes world's largest LNG exporter amid Ukraine war-driven demand, rising gas and power prices - Amid rising global energy prices and higher demand, the United States has become the world’s largest exporter of liquefied natural gas, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said Monday. Exports grew 12% in the first half of this year, compared with the latter half of 2021.“Since the end of last year, countries in Europe have increasingly imported more LNG to compensate for lower pipeline imports from Russia and to fill historically low natural gas storage inventories,” EIA said.Exports from the United States averaged 11.2 billion cubic feet per day, or Bcf/d, in the first half of this year, EIA said. Total U.S. export capacity has expanded by about 2 Bcf/d since November 2021, the agency said.“Most U.S. LNG exports went to the EU and the UK during the first five months of this year, accounting for 71%, or 8.2 Bcf/d, of the total U.S. LNG exports,” EIA said.According to EIA’s latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, LNG exports are expected to average 12.7 Bcf/d in 2023.The growth in LNG exports has raised some concern, and it comes as domestic gas and electricity prices are rising.Sen. Angus King, I-Maine, at a May Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee hearing, pointed to the increase in LNG exports as a cause for rising electricity prices. He said the U.S. exports about 15% of its gas production today, but approved applications would push that north of 50%.Short-term increases to send gas to Europe may be necessary,particularly due to the war in Ukraine, but “the problem is we’re building 35-year assets,” King said.EIA said the cost of natural gas to U.S. power generators will rise from $4.97/MMBtu in 2021 to $6.35/MMBtu in 2022. “Despite the increase, we forecast the share of natural gas in U.S. generation will average 37% in 2022, about the same as last year,” according to the agency’s outlook.EIA is also anticipating U.S. residential electricity prices to average $0.144/kWh in 2022, up 5.3% from 2021. “Higher retail electricity prices largely reflect an increase in wholesale power prices driven by rising natural gas prices,” the agency said.

LNG Exports and the Rising Cost of U.S. Natural Gas – Listen Now to NGI’s Hub & Flow - Click here to listen to the latest episode of NGI’s Hub & Flow podcast. Paul Cicio, CEO of the Industrial Energy Consumers of America (IECA), joins Jamison Cocklin, NGI’s senior editor of LNG, to discuss the role that rising LNG exports have had in pushing U.S. natural gas prices higher. IECA represents thousands of energy-intensive facilities across the country. The organization has been working for years to curb the rapid pace of LNG export growth as the manufacturing sector faces rising prices and stronger competition from overseas.

Crude, LNG Drive New Tonnage Record at Corpus Christi Port - The Port of Corpus Christi in South Texas, with an expansion project nearing completion, moved a record 46.4 million tons in the second quarter, it said Monday. Driven by growth in crude and refined products, along with LNG and dry bulk cargo, the port’s tonnage in the quarter surpassed the prior record set in 4Q2021 by 4.8%. During the first six months of 2022 (1H2022), the port’s customers moved 90.1 million tons of commodities through its waterway, up 11.9% from the first half of 2021. “The Port of Corpus Christi continues to break records and reach new heights due to its laser focus on developing the requisite maritime infrastructure to accommodate the growing demand for American energy commodities,” said CEO Sean Strawbridge. Crude oil shipments for 1H2022 totaled 52.4 million tons, up more than 12% over the prior record set in the same period last year, according to the port. Refined products were 15.8 million tons, an increase of 26.6% from 2021. Dry bulk cargo came in at 3.9 million tons, 21.5% above the first half of 2021, and liquefied natural gas shipments rose by 11% to 8.1 million tons. “These numbers are a testament to the role the Port of Corpus Christi and its industry partners play in the global marketplace, providing certainty in uncertain times,” said Port of Corpus Christi Commission Chairman Charles W. Zahn Jr. Rystad Energy last month painted a rosy outlook for Gulf Coast oil exports, in particular. The consultancy said its base case model anticipates volumes nearing 4 million b/d in 1Q2023 and crossing that threshold by 2Q2023, thanks to strong draws from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve and a strong domestic supply outlook.

Kinder Morgan Records Stronger Natural Gas Volumes in Texas - Rising natural gas gathering volumes in the Haynesville and Eagle Ford shales boosted the bottom line during the second quarter for Kinder Morgan Inc., which is now looking to grow its supplies for U.S. LNG exports. Gas gathering volumes during 2Q2022 were up 12% year/year, led by a 15% increase in Haynesville volumes and a 10% increase in Eagle Ford volumes. However, some growth was offset by lower volumes in the Bakken Shale.During a call last week with investors, President Kim Dang said Kinder was on track to beat the 10% full-year gathering volume increase that was previously budgeted. The midstreamer continues to anticipate growth in liquefied natural gas and Mexico exports, along with power and industrial consumption. For LNG demand in particular, it is projecting 11-15 Bcf/d by 2028.Kinder currently has around 7 Bcf/d contracted on its pipelines to serve LNG export demand. That represents about 50% of the total feed gas being delivered to U.S. terminals.The Houston-based company has another 2.6 Bcf/d of “highly likely” contracts for LNG export projects that have reached a positive final investment decision (FID) or that are expected to reach FID in the near future.

Howard Energy Looking to Double Natural Gas Capacity in South Texas to 2 Bcf/d -- Lower 48 midstream giant Howard Energy Partners (HEP), through joint venture Dos Caminos LLC, plans to double its natural gas gathering, treatment and transport services in Texas to 2 Bcf/d as it eyes opportunities for LNG and Mexico exports. The expansion, planned in the Austin Chalk formation and Eagle Ford Shale in South Texas, would be done through HEP’s partnership with an affiliate of Eagle Ford Midstream LP (EFM). “Given our unique pipeline footprint and history in South Texas, we are best situated to respond to the significant natural gas production growth in the Webb County area,” said HEP CEO Mike Howard. “These projects will be completed in phases with the initial phase anticipated to be completed in the third quarter of next year and the remainder in 2024.” Dos Caminos throughput would be expanded by enhancing existing systems and greenfield projects. San Antonio-based HEP operates Dos Caminos. Together with EFM, whose 158-mile pipeline runs through the Eagle Ford, HEP now gathers, treats and transports up to 1 Bcf/d, which is destined for Mexico and Gulf Coast liquefied natural gas exports. HEP owns and operates a long list of energy infrastructure across the Lower 48 including gas pipelines, gas processing plants, refined products storage terminals, deepwater dock/rail facilities, fractionation facilities and hydrogen production facilities.

Texas Upstream Natural Gas, Oil Industry Adds 6,100 Direct Jobs in June -Texas’ direct upstream natural gas and oil industry job count was 194,900 in June, translating into a 6,100-job gain from May, the Texas Independent Producers and Royalty Owners Association (TIPRO) reported last week. “As expected, the dip in May upstream employment appeared to be an anomaly, and June numbers reflect continued demand for talent and increasing exploration and production activities in the Texas oil and natural gas industry,” said TIPRO’s President Ed Longanecker. TIPRO, which obtains its employment data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, also noted that Texas’ June upstream job count represents a 31,000 year/year increase. The oilfield services (OFS) sector accounted for 22,700 of those new jobs, with the remaining 8,300 ascribed to oil and gas extraction, the trade group added. The 31,000-job gain occurred in tandem with a 55% year/year increase in statewide drilling permits issued by the Railroad Commission of Texas. TIPRO reported that the Houston metropolitan area, Texas’ largest region for oil and gas employment, added 2,000 upstream jobs from May to June to hit 67,000 direct positions. The trade group noted the June Houston metro upstream job count reflects a 10,000-position year/year increase, with 5,600 of those jobs in OFS and 4,400 in extraction-related roles. OFS companies accounted for the top three spots in TIPRO’s June ranking of unique job postings statewide. Taking the lead was OFS giant Baker Hughes Co. (BKR) with 1,073 listings, followed by KBR Inc. with 490 and Halliburton Co. with 436. “Of the top 10 companies listed by unique job postings last month, six companies were in the services sector, followed by two companies in midstream and two in oil and natural gas extracting,” said TIPRO. Statewide, the organization observed 12,391 active unique job postings across Texas’ upstream, midstream and downstream oil and gas sectors in June – up 6% month/month.

U.S. Natural Gas Shackled by ‘Short-Sighted’ Energy Policy, Says Range Resources CEO - The top executive of Range Resources Corp., one of the largest natural gas producers in the United States, said again on Tuesday that not enough is being done by the country to ease the global energy crisis. “Energy policy will need to be rooted in market realities,” said CEO Jeff Ventura. “If infrastructure projects, mainly pipelines and LNG terminals, are not prioritized and given reasonable regulatory reviews, then I believe it’s simply impossible to meet the growing global demand for reliable, safe and affordable fuels.” Ventura said unwarranted permitting delays, adverse policy decisions and the global push for more renewable energy have resulted in underinvestment in the oil and gas sector, helping to stifle domestic gas supplies and inflate energy costs worldwide. “The current situation will not change unless there is support for the necessary infrastructure that would allow for increased supply – plain and simple,” Ventura said during a call to discuss the company’s second quarter financial results. He said nearly the same after the company’s 1Q2022 results were released in April, calling on federal and state policymakers to better support natural gas infrastructure as other executives across the space have. Their pleas come at a time when Europe is preparing to cut gas consumption through next spring. Russia has significantly reduced deliveries to the continent in retaliation to sanctions for its war in Ukraine.

Strong Demand, Inconsistent Production Launch Natural Gas Futures Above $8.70 - Natural gas futures powered further ahead on Monday as summer demand held strong and global supply challenges festered. The August Nymex gas futures contract settled at $8.727, up 42.8 cents day/day. September gained 37.6 cents to $8.571. The bull run followed a 36.7-cent prompt month advance on Friday.NGI’s Spot Gas National Avg. climbed 19.5 cents on Monday to $8.580.Bespoke Weather Services noted some cooler changes in weather forecasts over the weekend for the balance of July, given a break from above-average heat in the northern reaches of the central and eastern areas of the country. But widespread heat persists across most of the rest of the Lower 48, and this month is still on pace to be the fourth-hottest July on record, the firm said.The August contract expires Wednesday. “As we all know,” Bespoke added, “expirations can bring wild volatility, and a continued move higher would not be a surprise.” U.S. production, meanwhile, continued to hover around 96 Bcf Monday as it did late last week – about 1 Bcf from summer highs. Many analysts have estimated that, given the intensity of domestic heat and global demand, output needs to be sustained at around 97 Bcf to ensure utilities can meet summer demand and inject enough gas into storage for the coming winter. As for the production outlook, “intra-month pipeline nomination trends suggest elevated likelihood of gains at the end of July, with the potential for record high production figures within the next week,” said EBW Analytics Group senior analyst Eli Rubin. “Until a more comprehensive natural gas supply increase occurs, however, upward momentum may continue to outweigh downside risks for Nymex gas futures.”For now, he added, “the market is focusing on reloading, intense heat in the second week of August, which would flirt with triple-digit cooling-degree days (CDD).”Global demand for American LNG exports also remains elevated. U.S. liquefied natural gas plants have operated near capacity most of July, save for the temporarily shuttered Freeport LNG facility following a June fire. Demand is strong from Europe, which had until this year largely depended on Russia for its gas supplies. But amid Russia’s war in Ukraine and Europe’s opposition to it, the Kremlin has reduced flows to the continent and threatened to further limit supplies via pipeline. The International Energy Agency’s (IEA) Fatih Birol, executive director, warned in a report Monday that Europe is in the midst of a perilous gas crisis that has been building for many months as Russia has held back supplies.” He added that the Kremlin could halt gas flows “completely at any moment” to retaliate against European sanctions imposed against Russia because of the war.This has put upward pressure on demand for U.S. LNG. At the same time, as Asian countries such as South Korea and Japan prepare for the winter ahead, they have begun to compete more for American LNG, adding to demand and supporting prices.

U.S. natgas futures up over 5% as heat wave boosts cooling demand (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures rose more than 5% on Monday as a persistent heat wave in the United States drove up demand for gas-powered electricity for air conditioning. Front-month gas futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) were up 42.8 cents, or 5.2%, to settle at $8.727 per million British thermal units (mmBtu). The session high was the contract's highest in over a month. Virtually all the contiguous United States experienced above-normal temperatures in the past week, with further dangerously hot weather forecast. The U.S. heat wave followed record heat that killed hundreds if not thousands of people and sparked wildfires in Europe. Data provider Refinitiv said average gas output in the U.S. Lower 48 states has risen to 96.1 bcfd so far in July from 95.3 bcfd in June "Once the short term heat wave is over, traders will be focused on weather end of summer injection season levels are relative to the five year norm, which we're forecasting to be behind the five year average causing some fundamental tightness heading into the winter," The U.S. oil and natural gas rig count last week rose for a third week as high prices encouraged spending at the wellpad, boosting demand for some oilfield services companies.

Natural gas hits highest level since 2008, on pace for best month ever - Natural gas prices are surging around the world as scorching temperatures stoke demand for the fuel, and as Europe's push to move away from Russian fuel roils global energy markets. U.S. natural gas futures surged more than 11% at one point on Tuesday to $9.75 per million British thermal units (MMBtu), the highest level since July 2008. The contract drifted lower over the course of the day, ending the dat at $8.99 per MMBtu for a gain of 3.05%. Natural gas is now up roughly 66% for July, putting it on track for the best month going back to the contract's inception in 1990. "Although the magnitude and speed of recent natural gas price gains point to contributing non-fundamental market dynamics, supportive fundamentals are nonetheless the primary driver," EBW Analytics Group wrote in a note to clients. "Fundamentally, scorching hot weather is the predominant bullish driver," the firm added. The contract for August delivery expires Wednesday, which is heightening volatility ahead of the roll. Volume is typically thin ahead of expiration, which means that individual trades can lead to outsized market moves. David Givens, head of natural gas and power services for North America at Argus Media, added that production growth this year has been "pitifully small." "There are significant pipeline constraints that are creating price disparities in the physical markets that we have not seen before," he noted. In Europe, Dutch TTF natural gas futures jumped 19.8% to 211.70 euros per megawatt hour, the highest level since March. The move follows a 10% gain on Monday after Gazprom said it would further reduce flows through the vital Nord Stream 1 pipeline. Beginning Wednesday, the pipeline will operate at just 20% of its capacity. Gazprom has said the cuts are related to turbine maintenance. "This is not the end of Russia's weaponization of natural gas flows, in our view, and there remain few near-term alternatives for even current reduced flows to the [European Union] — lending [to] ongoing upside price risks," RBC wrote last week in a note to clients. EU countries on Tuesday reached a deal to voluntarily reduce gas consumption by 15% starting next month. In an emergency, the suggested cuts would become mandatory. "The purpose of the gas demand reduction is to make savings ahead of winter in order to prepare for possible disruptions of gas supplies from Russia that is continuously using energy supplies as a weapon," the bloc said in a statement. U.K. natural gas futures added 17.3% on Tuesday.

August Natural Gas Futures Lose Momentum Heading into Expiry; Bull Case Intact - August Nymex natural gas futures faltered Wednesday, snapping a furious rally that dated to last week amid robust cooling demand and global supply worries. The prompt month gas futures contract settled at $8.687/MMBtu, down 30.6 cents day/day. September fell 27.1 cents to $8.554. NGI’s Spot Gas National Avg. followed suit, dropping 60.5 cents to $8.570. The August contract expired at the close Wednesday following volatile trading over its final two sessions at the front of the curve. Volatility is common ahead of expiry. Still, analysts said the demand drivers that had sent futures to the doorstep of a $9.00 settle on Tuesday remain firmly intact. These include intense summer heat and mounting global calls for American LNG. More rallies may lie ahead as a result. European demand for U.S. liquefied natural gas continues to accelerate amid a rare heatwave on the continent. The exceptional cooling demand comes on top of waning gas supplies from Russia. The Kremlin has dramatically cut gas flows to Europe – down to 20% of capacity this week — citing repair and equipment delays that it blamed on Western sanctions imposed to protest Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The International Energy Agency called Russia’s actions retaliatory and cautioned the Kremlin could at any time halt all flows of gas to Europe. This amplified the continent’s already pressing need for LNG, supporting U.S. prices. Asian countries are also now ramping up demand for the super-chilled fuel as they bolster storage for the winter ahead, according to Rystad Energy. “The uncertainty and confusion over Russian flows and their disruption is not going away soon and will therefore continue to support and push up gas prices,” Rystad analyst Karolina Siemieniuk said. U.S. production, meanwhile, topped 97 Bcf on Wednesday, according to Bloomberg estimates, putting output near the 2022 high. However, producers have struggled to sustain that level this summer, and output has held closer to 95-96 Bcf much of the season. Analysts at Bespoke Weather Services said output needs to hold at 97 Bcf, or perhaps higher, to match exceptional summer demand and enable utilities to also inject gas into storage for the coming winter. Bespoke said the current month is on pace to be the fourth hottest July on record and, based on the mid-range weather forecast, next month could rank among the five hottest Augusts on record. The outlook calls for widespread highs in the 90s and 100s through at least the first third of August, building on heat waves that canvassed the Lower 48 in both June and July.

US working natural gas in underground storage increases by 15 Bcf: EIA | S&P Global Commodity Insights --US natural gas working stocks rose by 15 Bcf during the week ended July 22, substantially below market expectations, but gas futures shrugged in response as NYMEX Henry Hub September steps up as the prompt-month contract. Storage inventories increased to 2.416 Tcf for the week ended July 22, the US Energy Information Administration reported on July 28. The weekly build was smaller than an S&P Global Commodity Insights' survey of analysts calling for a 25 Bcf draw, but within the wide range of responses between 2 Bcf and 47 Bcf. The net injection was also substantially less than the 38 Bcf build reported during the corresponding week in 2021 and the five-year average build of 32 Bcf, according to EIA data. As a result, stocks sit 293 Bcf, or 10.8%, below the year-ago level of 2.709 Tcf and 345 Bcf, or 12.5%, less than the five-year average of 2.416 Tcf. Volumetrically, the build puts storage levels at their widest distance to the five-year average so far in 2022, and the widest, percentage-wise, since June. Despite the ostensibly bullish nature of a smaller build that widens the deficit, the NYMEX Henry Hub September contract dropped more than 40 cents in July 28 trading. The prompt-month contract did not see much of a response in the first ten minutes after the report published, remaining in a range of $8.52-$8.55/MMBtu, near its prior-day settlement of $8.554/MMBtu. By mid-session, however, the contract had fallen toward the $8.20s/MMBtu, before ultimately settling 42 cents lower at $8.134/MMBtu. The market may have already priced in expectations of a smaller build, analysts said. NYMEX Henry Hub August hurtled nearly 60% higher from its July 1 settlement of $5.73/MMBtu to its recent peak of $8.993/MMBtu on July 26. Part of the drop in US gas futures could also be attributed to seasonal changes, as traders now look ahead to September supply and demand fundamentals instead of August. Soaring gas-fired power demand from multiple heat waves has been a major driver of the recent streak of smaller weekly storage builds and provided support to higher prices. While National Weather Service outlooks show above-normal temperatures continuing through at least October, typically gas-fired power demand peaks in July and August. A forecast by S&P Global's supply and demand model calls for a larger 27 Bcf build for the week ending July 29, which would be larger than the five-year average build of 33 Bcf but below the 16 Bcf observed for that week in 2021. As a result, the deficit to the five-year average would widen slightly to 12.6% while also reducing the distance to year-ago levels to 10.3%.

High natural gas prices may ripple across the energy sector - Fallout from Russia’s war in Ukraine and hot weather are sending U.S. natural gas prices to some of the highest points in years. Exports are up as the nation tries to ship more liquefied natural gas to allied countries in Europe while a heat wave boosts demand for gas to generate electricity domestically. Analysts said the bump in natural gas prices will have long-term impacts on the U.S. economy as the fuel’s high costs push up summer electric bills and winter heating costs, as well as the price of everything from food to plastics. Natural gas prices have risen faster this year on a percentage basis than crude oil, gasoline or diesel. The benchmark U.S. price topped $9 per million British thermal units on Tuesday, more than double the price last summer, as Russia cut back shipments to European countries and the European Union’s members agreed on a plan to ration their own gas use (Climatewire, July 27). Gas is the largest source of electric power in the U.S., and gas prices help set the cost of electricity around the country, said Tyson Slocum, director of the energy program at the consumer advocacy group Public Citizen. In all, gas fueled about 38 percent of utility-scale power generation in the country last year, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration. This year’s gas price increase will mean higher electric bills at a time when consumers are already coping with the highest inflation rate since the 1980s. “It could be several months, it could be a year, but at some point 100 percent of those costs are going to find their way into utility bills,” Slocum said.

Texas oil and gas employment may not rebound to pre-COVID levels | IEEFA - Employment in the Texas oil and gas sector has rebounded since its September 2020 nadir, and industry leaders are touting the new jobs as an indication that the industry will continue to create jobs over the long term. However, a wider view of the landscape reveals that the oil and gas industry, at slightly more than one-fifth the pace of the statewide average, has been a laggard in Texas employment growth over the past 30 years. It’s true that oil and gas businesses have added 39,400 jobs, but that’s only a little more than half the number lost during the COVID-19 pandemic. And those figures may be about as good as it gets in the wake of a May report indicating that the job additions may have already plateaued. Between September 2019 and September 2020, Texas employment for oil and gas extraction, support activities for mining, natural gas distribution, petroleum and coal products manufacturing, pipeline transportation, and gasoline stations industries (all key oil and gas industries) shed 21% of their collective workforce, or 76,300 jobs. If April 2022 employment of 333,900 jobs holds as the plateau for this latest cycle, then peak employment could wind up resembling previous oil and gas busts (see red dashed line in Figure 1).While the current environment presents some unique labor challenges, an identifiable long-term employment pattern also exists. In contrast to the overall employment picture—as represented by the Texas Nonfarm Employment, which has steadily risen over the past decade (with the exception of the COVID-19 slump) at a faster clip than the national figure—Texas oil and gas employment has declined over the last two boom-and-bust cycles for oil prices.Industrial activities driven by the normal phases of resource extraction have changed since 2014. The industry has moved from the exploratory phase of the unconventional drilling of shale and tight oil formations to the development phase. Accompanying the development phase, oil and gas producers have been keenly focused on deploying technologies that drive down their unit costs for production volumes. Multiple wells drilled on a single pad (instead of just one well per pad) and innovations that include automation have combined to squeeze many days out of the drilling and completion process. The advances help explain how similar levels of production can be achieved with fewer rigs and fewer people in the field than a decade ago. The innovation also explains how the industry’s production continues to grow while size of the oil and gas workforce is moving in the opposite direction.

 'Not the same oil industry.' Record profits don't create jobs. -Oil field jobs, which plummeted during the pandemic and recession two years ago, haven’t recovered even though the oil industry itself is back on its feet and many companies are recording healthy profits.Overall employment in the sector increased to about 633,000 jobs in June, which is still about 10 percent lower than the pre-pandemic level of about 707,000, according to the Energy Workforce and Technology Council, a trade group.In Texas, the biggest oil producing state, the industry employed about 334,000 workers in April, compared to about 371,000 before the pandemic, according to the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis. In comparison, Texas’ crude output, at 5 million barrels a day, has almost fully recovered to its pre-pandemic high.Exxon Mobil Corp. has told investors it could report record some of its best earnings when it releases financial results this week, driven by surging gasoline and diesel prices (Energywire, July 5).While the oil industry is having the same trouble as other industries finding qualified workers, the trend shows that oil field employment is undergoing a structural change, said Trey Cowan, an analyst at IEEFA who studied the Texas numbers.“The oil and gas industry has served Texas well, but it’s not the same oil and gas industry that people still perceive it to be,” Cowan said.The Biden administration’s plans to curb fossil fuel use and address climate-warming pollution have driven some workers away from the oil industry, said Leslie Beyer, CEO of the Energy Workforce and Technology Council.She agreed with Cowan, though, that the industry is embracing new technology that will reduce the number of jobs in the oil patch (Energywire, April 23, 2019). For example, drilling rig operators now routinely steer their drill bits from control rooms that are located miles from the oil field. Companies are experimenting with drones and other high-tech equipment to inspect pipelines and other installations.The trend toward technology will create jobs for workers with different skills, even if overall employment drops, Beyer said.

 Exxon and Chevron Report Record Profits on High Oil Prices - Exxon Mobil and Chevron, the two largest energy companies in the United States, said on Friday that profits rose to record levels in the second quarter as they continued to reap the benefits of soaring oil and gas prices. Exxon reported income of $17.9 billion for the three months through June, more than three times what it earned in the same quarter a year ago. Revenue at the energy giant jumped to $115.6 billion, from $67.7 billion a year ago. Chevron’s performance was similar, with profit more than tripling to $11.6 billion as sales rose to $65 billion, compared with $36 billion a year ago. Coming after oil prices nearly doubled from a year ago, the results were expected, but Exxon and Chevron still beat analysts’ predictions for profits in the quarter. The results mean that five of the biggest Western oil companies — including Britain’s BP and Shell, as well as France’s TotalEnergies — are likely to have generated some $60 billion in earnings for the second quarter. Shell and Total also reported bumper earnings on Thursday, and analysts are expecting similarly strong results from BP next week. With oil and gas prices as high as they are, the profit results could increase political pressure on oil companies to do more to boost production and lower costs to consumers. They have already faced harsh criticism from political leaders, including President Biden, over the windfall earnings at a time when consumer prices in the United States are spiking. On Friday, the companies said they would expand production somewhat, but they also announced a big increase in share buyback programs that reward shareholders. The surge in profits followed a spike in crude oil, natural gas and gasoline prices this year, resulting mostly from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and efforts to punish Moscow by cutting off its petroleum sales to the rest of the world. A global economy that was rebounding from the coronavirus pandemic and hesitation among oil producers to quickly ramp up production also contributed to the jump in prices. In the three months from April to June, the American crude oil benchmark averaged about $109 a barrel, or 64 percent more than it did in the same period a year earlier, data from Bloomberg shows. On Friday, the price of West Texas Intermediate crude was closer to $98 a barrel. The average price of gasoline in the United States reached a record of just over $5 a gallon on June 14, according to AAA. But the price has been falling in recent weeks. On Friday, the national average was about $4.26 a gallon. Exxon on Friday said that its refining profits — earnings that come from processing crude oil into gasoline and other fuels — surged to $5.3 billion, from a loss of $865 million a year ago. At Chevron, refining profits were $3.5 billion in the second quarter, up from $839 million the year before. Rising energy costs have become a major contributor to inflation around the world, and have triggered sharp criticism of the energy producers. In June, Mr. Biden said that “Exxon made more money than God this year,” as he chastised the company for not investing enough to increase production. Britain, home of BP and Shell, has announced a special tax on the “extraordinary” profits of oil and gas companies.

U.S. crude stockpiles drop as exports surge to record high- EIA (Reuters) - U.S. crude oil stockpiles fell last week, driven by a surge in exports to an all-time high due to the big discount for U.S. crude when compared with international benchmark Brent. Crude inventories dropped 4.5 million barrels to 422.1 million barrels in the week ended July 22, compared with analysts' expectations in a Reuters poll for a 1 million-barrel drop, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said on Wednesday. The decline was in large part the result of a surge in crude exports to a record 4.5 million barrels per day in the latest week. The spread, or arbitrage between Brent and the U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures has widened out to more than $9 a barrel, making it more attractive for U.S. companies to sell crude overseas and for international refiners to bear the costs of transport to get the cheaper U.S. oil. "The arb has only increased so you may actually see us challenge 5 million barrels in coming reports," said Robert Yawger, executive director of energy futures at Mizuho. U.S. crude production rebounded to 12.1 million bpd after two weeks of declines, rising 200,000 bpd in its biggest increase since December. U.S. gasoline stocks USOILG=ECI fell by 3.3 million barrels on the week. After a couple of weeks of lackluster demand, gasoline product supplied by refiners rebounded, though overall gasoline demand is down 7% over the last four weeks when compared with the year-ago period.​

Record US Oil Exports Set to Grow as WTI Discount Deepens – Bloomberg - The US is exporting more oil than ever before, with shipments poised to climb even higher. A key factor: The widening gap between West Texas Intermediate and Brent oil futures, which means traders can profit more from each American barrel shipped to energy-starved Europe and elsewhere. The spread this week blew out to a level not seen since 2020, incentivizing exports that are already at a record. Crude shipments climbed 21% last week to an all-time high of 4.55 million barrels a day while total petroleum exports also hit a record, Energy Information Administration data show. Tight supplies in Europe following Russia’s growing isolation have kept Brent oil futures elevated and stoked demand for US crude. At the same time, releases from the US strategic petroleum reserve have kept a lid on WTI prices.

United States announces to sell additional 20 million barrels of oil from strategic reserve -- The United States will sell an additional 20 million barrels of oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, reported Reuters. The Joe Biden administration said that the it would use the oil from Strategic Petroleum Reserve as part of the previous plan to counter the prices hiked due to the Russian invasion of Ukraine.Earlier in March this year, the Biden administration announced to release one million barrels of oil per day from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve from the coasts of Louisiana and Texas. According to reports, the US had already sold 125 million barrels from the reserve. As per the US Energy Department, oil output in the country will rise to more than 11.9 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2022 and to nearly 12.8 million bpd in 2023. In 2021, the oil output in the US was 11.2 million. In 2019, it was 12.3 million bpd.The US will invite bids in autumn this year to begin the process of buying back 60 million barrels of crude for reserve, reported Reuters. It is the first in refilling the stockpile after the 180 million barrel release."What it means in practice is that producers would have more certainty about future demand for their product, and that would encourage investment in production today, reported Reuters quoting Reuters.Notably, the oil level in the SPR dropped to 475.5 million barrels. It is the lowest since 1985. An analysis by the US Treasury Department showed that gasoline prices at the pump have been reduced by as much as 40 cents per gallon due to the SPR releases, along with coordinated releases from international partners.

US Actually Sold 6 Million Barrels From SPR To Hunter Biden-Tied China Firm -The Biden administration has sold nearly 6 million barrels of oil from the U.S. strategic reserve to an entity tied with the Chinese Communist Party, records show.From September 2021 to July, the Department of Energy (DOE) has awarded three crude oil contracts with a combined value of roughly $464 million to Unipec America, the U.S. trading arm of Chinese state-owned oil company Sinopec, according to a review by The Epoch Times of the DOE documents. A Chinese firm with ties to Hunter Biden had made an investment in the national oil giant.The sale would tap 5.9 million barrels in total from the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) to export to the Chinese firm. The latest contract was unveiled on July 10, consisting of 950,000 barrels sold for around $113.5 million.The two most recent sales to Unipec came out of an emergency drawdown of the U.S. oil stockpile, initiated under President Joe Biden on March 31 in what he said would offset the loss of Russian oil in global markets and tame rising fuel costs at home.  But the Unipec contracts have been a subject of heavy criticism since the firm’s connections to the younger Biden came into focus in recent weeks. With Americans nationwide still reeling from the $5 per gallon gas prices in June, the selling of oil reserves to foreign adversaries such as China is at odds with U.S. energy and security needs, Republican lawmakers and analysts have said.“Biden is draining our strategic reserves at an unprecedented rate. This is an abuse of the SPR, far beyond its intended purpose. Sending U.S. petroleum reserves to foreign adversaries is wrong, and it undermines our national security,” Rep. Clay Higgins (R-La.) told The Epoch Times.What the United States should do, he argued, is to “unleash American energy production and ensure that our strategic reserves are stocked and able to meet the demands of a national emergency.”

Keystone Pipeline won't lower gas prices - Ever since boycotts started blocking Russian petroleum products, social media has been rife with memes that blame rising gasoline prices on “the cancellation of the Keystone Pipeline.”Example: “Sooo, if shutting down Russia’s pipeline(s) will hurt their economy, wouldn’t shutting down ours hurt our economy? Asking for a buddy.”Most of the criticism comes from people who recycle truthiness. Former Vice President Mike Pence: “Gas prices have risen across the country because of this administration’s war on energy — shutting down the Keystone Pipeline.”Rep. Jim Jordan, R-Ohio: “Biden shut off the Keystone Pipeline.”Here’s what really happened: No one shut down, canceled, or shut off the Keystone Pipeline. It is fully operational, daily delivering 590,000 barrels of tar-sands oil in Canada to U.S. refineries.What some pipeline advocates think is the “Keystone Pipeline” is a 1,700-mile “shortcut” called Keystone XL, or KXL. It would have sliced through Montana, South Dakota, Nebraska, Kansas and Oklahoma to the Texas Gulf Coast, delivering 830,000 barrels of tar sands oil per day. Many residents of those states fought fiercely against the pipeline cutting through their land.Now, “Build the Keystone Pipeline” has become a social media mantra, as if the United States could so decree. It is the Canadian firm, TC Energy, formerly Trans-Canada, that officially terminated the project once President Joe Biden withdrew its permits. Even if construction on the pipeline began tomorrow, KXL could not be up and running in less than five years. The KXL pipeline was a project developed by a foreign company that would have delivered foreign oil products to mostly foreign markets.When President Donald Trump repermitted KXL in 2017, his own State Department reported that it would not lower gasoline prices. The price of oil is set by the global market and certainly not by U.S. presidents. What’s more, the project was just about dead for a number of reasons, including litigation from aggrieved property owners whose land TC Energy seized by eminent domain.We should also remember that rendering gasoline from tar-sands oil, the planet’s dirtiest petroleum, is far more polluting and energy-intensive than conventional refining. Some carbon content is burned off in a process that belches greenhouse gases and generates toxic waste called petcoke, which is dumped around the country in piles six stories high. Petcoke billows through neighborhoods and infiltrates schools and houses even when windows are shut.

Keystone Pipeline volumes rise to about 610,000 b/d from capacity hike - TC Energy said its Keystone Pipeline crude volumes rose to roughly 610,000 b/d in the second quarter from a previous baseline capacity of 590,000 b/d as the Canadian pipeline operator aims to increase volumes from the Alberta oil sands to the US Gulf Coast through more modest optimization efforts.TC Energy said July 28 that, using an open season that dates all the way back to 2019, it aims to continue to ramp up Keystone volumes through the end of 2022, but declined to provide specific volumes, citing commercially sensitive deals. TC said it placed almost one-third of its open season contracts into service during the past quarter. The goal also is to grow the southern leg of the Keystone network, the Marketlink Pipeline, which runs from the Cushing, Oklahoma storage hub to the Texas Gulf Coast."We safely reached nearly 610,000 b/d a day as we placed about 30% of the 2019 open season contracts into service," CEO François Poirier said during a July 28 earnings call. "We're increasing long-haul volumes on Keystone, and we're also working to increase utilizations on Marketlink."The earnings call comes just five days after Keystone returned to normal service following a nearly weeklong reduction in capacity triggered by damage at a third-party electric substation.

Oil, Natural Gas Activity Creeping Upward in North Dakota as Labor Challenges Persist - Active drilling rigs, hydraulic fracturing crews and drilling permits all are creeping upward in North Dakota, though workforce challenges remain a hindrance to faster growth, the state’s top oil regulator said Tuesday (July 19). North Dakota had 42 active rigs as of Tuesday (July 19), which also was the monthly average for June. This is up from 40 in May and 38 in April, according to the state’s Department of Mineral Resources (DMR).The number of active fracturing crews stood at 18, up from 16 a month earlier, but below the pre-covid number of 25. Drilling permits totaled 77 in June, up from 68 in May and 55 in April. Permitting “continues to rise, as does the rig count,” DMR Director Lynn Helms told reporters on Tuesday. “So those are both major positives for t he industry.”The industry, however, is “still really struggling to find [a] workforce.”To maintain a slow and steady pace of production growth in North Dakota, 50-55 active rigs and 20-25 hydraulic fracturing crews would be ideal, said Helms. The Permian Basin of West Texas and Southeastern New Mexico, for example, is far outpacing North Dakota’s Williston Basin in terms of incremental drilling and fracturing activity, Helms noted.Oil and natural gas production in North Dakota mostly recovered in May after back-to-back snowstorms in April severely curtailed output.Oil output rose 17% to 1.06 million b/d in May from 905,357 b/d in April. Natural gas production increased 14% to 2.79 Bcf/d, DMR data show. The natural gas capture rate, meanwhile, improved to 94% from 93%, reflecting industry efforts and state regulations to curb routine flaring.In the Bakken Shale, which accounts for 96% of North Dakota’s oil output, the Energy Information Administration is forecasting natural gas and oil production to rise by 31 MMcf/d and 19,000 b/d, respectively, in August versus July.

O.C. supervisors approve settlement in oil spill response – LATimes - Orange County supervisors voted today to accept nearly $1 million from Amplify Energy to cover expenses incurred responding to the oil spill off the waters of Huntington Beach in October. The supervisors voted 4-1, with Supervisor Andrew Do dissenting, to accept $956,352 from the oil company to cover expenses related to the emergency response and cleanup efforts. “We basically have made whole in terms of our expenses, which was the goal — to get reimbursed for all of our expenses related to the oil spill, and those expenses are nearly $1 million, so it was a very effective, timely turnaround to get the county reimbursed,” Supervisor Katrina Foley told City News Service. Do said he voted against the settlement because it could leave the county potentially liable for more uncovered expenses down the line. “Getting $900,000 or even $1 million for potential claims to comedown in the future is peanuts,” Do told CNS. “If we have lawsuits in the future and cannot go to Amplify to indemnify us then $1 million in legal fees will be gone in six months. I think it’s premature. The incident happened about 10 months ago. Until we see with more clarity the number of claims, but also the type of claims, we also have to keep in mind we might have claims that might not materialize for years to come. For that reason I would defer— that we take our time.” Foley said she felt comfortable that the risk of any future claims would be low. A statute of limitations on most claims has already passed, she added. “I think it’s a win for the taxpayers,” she said. “We got the cleanup done ... It’s a good settlement for the county.” The settlement removes the county from the federal litigation before U.S. District Court Judge David Carter in Santa Ana. Amplify Energy owns the oil rig that spewed thousands of gallons of crude into the waters off Huntington Beach last October. Federal investigators have said it appears the pipeline was damaged by a ship’s anchor likely belonging to one of dozens of cargo ships that were backed up in traffic over several months outside the Los Angeles-Long Beach port complex.

Pipeline company to pay nearly $1M over California oil spill -The owner of an underwater oil pipeline that spilled some 25,000 gallons of crude into the ocean off Southern California last year will pay nearly $1 million in cleanup costs. The Orange County Board of Supervisors on Tuesday agreed to accept a proposed claim settlement with Amplify Energy Corp. over the costs of dealing with last October's spill off of Huntington Beach. The ruptured pipeline spilled the oil, equal to about 94,600 liters, about 4 miles (6.4 kilometers) offshore. While less severe than initially feared, the spill shuttered beaches for a week and fisheries for more than a month, oiled birds and threatened wetlands that Orange County communities have been striving to restore. Investigators believe the San Pedro Bay Pipeline that ferried crude from offshore oil platforms to the coast was weakened when a cargo ship’s anchor snagged it in high winds in January 2021, months before it ultimately ruptured Oct. 1 Houston-based Amplify Energy sued two container ship operators and an organization that helps oversee marine traffic, saying they failed to prevent the spill. The suit alleges that in January 2021 two ships dragged their anchors across the pipeline. The $956,352 settlement with Orange County includes about $238,000 for the county Public Works Department, which built sand berms and placed booms to prevent oil from polluting sensitive wetlands, the Orange County Register reported. Money also will go to the county's health agency, the Sheriff's Department that operates the Harbor Patrol, and reimburse the county for legal costs and the hiring of contractors and environmental consultants. Meanwhile, Amplify and two subsidiaries were indicted by a federal grand jury last year on a misdemeanor count of illegally discharging oil. The indictment alleges that fatigued workers failed to properly act when repeated alarms signaled an offshore pipeline rupture and continued operating the pipeline for hours. Amplify has said company workers on and offshore believed they were responding to false alarms from a malfunctioning system.

President Biden can (still) defuse the climate bomb in America’s Arctic - All eyes are on the president to deliver on his climate promises, now that the chance at climate legislation seems to be slipping away yet again. The resident finds himself in an increasingly hot seat to address the climate crisis on all fronts — and the ticking climate bomb that only the White House can defuse is a development proposal so massive it would equal the annual output of nearly one-third of U.S. coal power plants.ConocoPhillips Willow oil and gas development project would be the largest in the nation, proposed on some of America’s most biodiverse and sensitive public lands. The administration recently initiated a process to consider the project’s environmental impact, giving the public and local communities just 45 days to weigh in, the shortest period legally allowable. A project of this magnitude deserves longer, as no single oil and gas proposal has more potential to impact this administration’s climate and public lands legacy. Furthermore, the enormous proposal is just the tip of the iceberg, laying a foundation for expensive oil and gas infrastructure for decades to come. Our climate would pay the price, and yet — as the project wouldn’t come online for years — it would have zero impact on current gas prices.Most Americans may not ever get to experience firsthand the rich ecosystem and biodiversity at risk under the proposal, but for decades people from around the country and world have raised their voices to protect the unique and unspoiled lands of our American Arctic. On a recent visit to the Utukok River (southwest of the proposed drilling area), I had the remarkable experience of seeing what’s at stake: caribou roaming, grizzly bears feeding and mating, and endless carpets of wildflowers blooming across the expansive landscape. We discovered a mammoth tusk near camp, which made us think about how rich of an ecosystem this area has been for thousands of years. It was a stark reminder of these critical wilderness areas, and how sensitive and pristine Arctic ecosystems would be pushed past tipping points by industrial development, potentially risking extinction of keystone species such as caribou and polar bears.As the single biggest oil and gas proposal on federal lands — by far — Willow represents an existential climate threat. It would further accelerate climate change effects in a region already being ravaged by climate change (warming 3-4 times the global average). If President Biden is serious about honoring the climate and public lands protection commitments that helped elect him, this is the real litmus test.

Fossil fuel industry lobbying increases as ConocoPhillips fights for more oil drilling in Alaska --Oil and gas companies spent more than $63.5 million lobbying the federal government in the first six months of 2022, an increase of 11% compared to the same period last year when industry spending hit a 10-year low.Driving much of this increase is ConocoPhillips, which reported spending more on federal lobbying in the first half of 2022 than it has annually for any year since 2011. The Texas-based oil company spent roughly $5.9 million on lobbying in the first half of 2022, three times what it spent in the same period last year, as it sought final approval for its long-delayed Willow project — an $8 billion plan to extract oil from the federally-administered National Petroleum Reserve in Alaska’s North Slope.A federal judge last year vacated construction permits for Willow, approved in the final months of former President Donald Trump’s administration because the government did not properly assess Willow’s impact on global temperatures and Arctic wildlife. Rather than challenge the decision, the Bureau of Land Management revisited the review, a draft of which was released earlier this month.Environmental groups urged President Joe Biden to block development permanently, arguing that Willow will commit the U.S. to 30 years of fossil fuel extraction, prolonging American dependence on oil and undercutting the president’s goal of reducing planet-warming greenhouse gas emissions by at least 50% by 2030. Supporters of the project, including Sens. Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska) and Dan Sullivan (R-Alaska), say Willow will bring jobs to Alaska, enrich the state, reduce energy costs and increase global energy security.As a presidential candidate, Biden promised sweeping action on climate change, including a ban on new oil and gas permitting on public lands and waters that became a target of industry lobbying. But his administration, under pressure to lower rising gas prices, resumed federal oil and gas leasing in April, infuriating climate activists. Three months later, it put out a plan opening federal waters off the coast of southern Alaska and in the Gulf of Mexico to offshore drilling. Several climate activists have characterized the Bureau of Land Management’s release of a revised environmental assessment as a step toward Willow’s approval — and blow to the climate. “[Willow] poses an unparalleled climate and biodiversity threat,” Kristen Miller, conservation director of the Alaska Wilderness League, said a statement.“This project is proposed in America’s Western Arctic, an area that is already being ravaged by climate change, this project would put critical wildlife and subsistence resources in the crosshairs, and it would lock us into decades of carbon intensive oil and gas extraction.” The bureau calculates ConocoPhillips’ plan for Willow will release more than 284 million metric tons of greenhouse gasses — nearly 24 million metric tons from building and operating the project and nearly 261 million metric tons from transporting, refining, and burning the produced oil. The effect these emissions will have on the climate is amplified in the Arctic, which is warming at more than double the global rate, according to the bureau’s assessment.

De Beers fined $350,000 over diesel spill at Snap Lake -De Beers must pay $350,000 after being prosecuted over a diesel spill at its now-defunct Snap Lake diamond mine in December 2017. Environment and Climate Change Canada, heralding Monday’s sentence, said the money will be placed in a fund that supports “projects that benefit the natural environment.” De Beers was charged under the Canadian Environmental Protection Act, a prosecution considered significant as one of the first since the act’s regulations were amended in 2020. Environment and Climate Change Canada said on Monday that up to 1,125 litres of diesel had spilled during a fuel transfer between two above-ground storage tanks at the mine. However, a spill report from De Beers at the time suggested around five times that quantity of diesel had spilled. According to that report, an attendant had forgotten to close a tank outlet valve ahead of a shift change while trying to move diesel from one tank to another. The attendant had worked late the previous night restoring power following an outage. During cleanup, the spill report stated, staff discovered an estimated 5,903 litres of diesel had been released into the environment after overflowing the containment berm. Under the Environmental Protection Act, De Beers faced a fine of between $100,000 and $4 million. Following the spill, De Beers told the Mackenzie Valley Land and Water Board it had reviewed work procedures and training with staff, told the site crew not to start refuelling until crew changes were complete, and reviewed risk assessments and critical controls for winter camp conditions.

Diesel Spill off Bahamas Resort Island - Ship & Bunker -A cargo ship delivering fuel to the Bahamas resort island of Great Exuma has spilled around 35,000 gallons (159,000 litres) diesel fuel, according to media reports. The incidence happened a week ago when the ship, the Arabian, was discharging its cargo,according to a Euronews report. Containment action was taken by crew and, according to a local politician quoted in the report, pollution from the spill did not appear to be widespread. While the extent and number of oil spills from ships has declined since the Exxon Valdez disaster of 1989, smaller spills of fuel oil and crude oil persist. Typically, these happen when fuel is being loaded onto or discharged from a ship

Emergency operation after large oil spill off Kent coast averts serious shoreline impact -An emergency operation to prevent an oil spill reaching Kent's coastline has helped prevent serious shoreline impact. Pollution experts and Maritime Coastguard Agency teams have been dealing with an oil slick which first appeared 12 nautical miles off the coast. Modelling on Friday afternoon showed that, due to the changing direction of offshore winds, the oil slick is unlikely to make landfall. Instead, the slick will come within five nautical miles of the coast near Dover this evening, before continuing to move away from shore. The cause of the spill is still unknown and being investigated, but at ITV News Meridian understand a wreck on the seabed is thought to be one possible source. Two large vessels have been sent with high-speed containment, decanting and recovery systems have been sent to capture as much of the oil slick as possible – with efforts focussed in Deal and Ramsgate. The spill was first reported to the Maritime and Coastguard Agency by a Royal Navy vessel. A spokesperson for the Maritime and Coastguard Agency said: "We believe we have now identified the source of the oil observed on the water off the Kent coast over the past few days and are in process of putting together a robust containment plan to ensure the oil will not reach our shores or harm the local wildlife in any way.

 E.U. emergency plan over Russian gas adds exemptions despite resistance - — European Union governments Tuesday agreed on a plan to reduce natural gas consumption amid looming shortages, although after resistance from southern European countries the measures are more limited than originally conceived. The 27 member states will broadly aim to cut gas use through the winter by 15 percent compared with previous years, as they seek to keep the heat on through the coldest months and insulate themselves from destabilizing disruptions of imports from Russia.But they introduced exemptions that could apply in a wide range of cases and had not been part of the initial plan. They also raised the bar for transitioning from voluntary to mandatory cuts.The nations most opposed to the strict original proposal — Spain andPortugal, supported by France and other countries — argued that uniform curbs without exemptions would have been an illogical sacrifice, given that their economies aren’t reliant on Russian gas and they expect to have sufficient supplies. It’s Germany — which ignored warnings and grew to depend on Russia for more than half of its gas supply — that should carry the biggest burden, they said.“Unlike other countries, we Spaniards have not lived beyond our means from an energy point of view,” Spanish Ecological Transition Minister Teresa Ribera Rodríguez said last week, in an apparent reference to Germany.Fault lines between northern and southern Europe are a recurring theme in E.U. debates. But in this case, the usual power dynamics are flipped.Germany’s political establishment for years has viewed itself as a prudent guardian of European economic and political stability. German officials pushed for tough austerity measures in Spain, Greece and Portugal in the wake of financial and sovereign debt crises.And at times they have condemned southern nations for supposedly living off the hard-earned income of northern and central Europeans. People in Spain and Portugal should stop taking siestas and retiring early, leading German politicians and commentators repeatedly advised. Germany now finds itself in a very different position: Criticized for having behaved irresponsibly with its long-standing reliance on Russian gas, and now in need of solidarity and forbearance from nations it has sometimes only begrudgingly supported. Despite an effort to diversify its energy, Berlin remains at the mercy of the whims of Moscow. Tuesday’s meeting of E.U. energy ministers came a day after Russian energy giant Gazprom said it would halve the natural gas flowing through its main pipeline to Germany. Gazprom cited problems with a turbine, but German officials said they saw no legitimate reason for the reduction.

Russia’s Gazprom to slash gas to Germany, as Putin fosters uncertainty in Europe — Russian energy giant Gazprom on Monday said it would halve the natural gas flowing through its main pipeline to Germany, keeping European countries in a state of uncertainty as they scramble to build up energy supplies for winter. Starting Wednesday, the daily gas flow through the Nord Stream 1 pipeline — the biggest between Russia and Western Europe — will be set at 33 million cubic meters, Gazprom said. That amounts to about 20 percent of capacity, down from 40 percent. Gazprom cited problems with a turbine.Germany’s Ministry for the Economy and Climate said it saw no technical reason for the reduction in deliveries. “We are monitoring the situation very closely,” it said in a statement.German officials have accused Russia of using repairs as a pretext to squeeze Europe, causing prices to soar and giving President Vladimir Putin leverage against Western countries backing Ukraine in the war. Last week, it was unclear if Russia would turn the gas back on after the end of scheduled maintenance work on Nord Stream 1, which stretches 760 miles under the Baltic Sea. The gas did start pumping again on Thursday, providing some relief to global energy markets and concerned European officials. But even then, the flow was at the reduced level the pipeline had been delivering at since June, when Gazprom first cited technical problems with its turbines. Germany is still dependent on Russia for around a third of its supplies and has been racing to fill up its gas storage facilities before gas is needed to heat homes this winter. This week’s further reduction will hamper German plans to have storage capacity 75 percent full by September and 95 percent by November. Germany has begun to cut consumption wherever it can. Some landlords are already rationing hot water, which has been turned off in many public buildings, while lights have been dimmed and public fountains lie still.

European Gas Soars As Russia Throttles NS1 Flows To just 20% Of Capacity - Less than 24 hours after EU countries approved the European executive's emergency natural gas consumption proposed cut of 15%, Russia further throttled gas supplies Wednesday, bringing deliveries through Nord Stream 1 to merely 20% of its total capacity, or roughly half of recent flows. Reuters recorded that physical flows via Nord Stream 1 pipeline have fallen to 14.42mln KWH/H between 0900-1000BST (vs. 14.41mln KWH/H between 0800-0900BST; 27.77mln kWh/H between 05:00-06:00BST), noting further citing Germany’s gas network operator Gascade that since 07:00BST on Wednesday, 1.28MCM/hr - 20% of Nord Stream 1 maximum capacity has been transported in accordance with nominations. This sent prices soaring further to reach earlier all-time highs set immediately in the wake of the Ukraine invasion. The Kremlin was cited as saying Wednesday that it is supply "as much gas to Europe as possible" but again stressed it's unable to guarantee supplies due to Western sanctions on vital equipment needed for proper maintenance and functioning. Uniper and Italy's Eni have acknowledged receiving less gas from Gazprom through the start of this week into today, also with German Economy Minister Robert Habeck saying amid the scramble to stave off full-blown emergency rationing measures, "It is true that Germany, with its dependence on Russian gas, has made a strategic mistake but our government is working... to correct this."Berlin accounts for 40% of all EU gas imports from Russia last year, and has been plunged into supply crisis since mid-June, when Gazprom initially halved its flows to the leading EU country (first cutting to 40% of capacity), with the federal government lately having to rescue its major gas importer Uniper with a $15 billion euro bailout.Benchmark NatGas prices in Europe at the Dutch TTF hub...on track to reach new record closing high, after having already risen by more than a third on the week.European gas prices Wednesday accelerated to reach earlier all-time highs just after Russia invaded Ukraine, rising 12% early in the day.As FT also observes, "The European benchmark TTF contract has reached €220 a megawatt hour, leaving it on track to hit a new record closing high, exceeding the previous peak in the immediate wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.""The surge has left gas prices at roughly 10 times their level prior to the start of Russia’s squeeze on supplies last year. Gascade, Germany’s gas network operator, said flows on Nord Stream 1 had roughly halved to 20 per cent of capacity as of Wednesday morning," notes FT.And from the Russian side, some of the latest out of Gazprom's executive leadership indicating the standoff over sanctioned foreign parts, crucial turbines in particular, looks to continue:

The End of Cheap Russian Gas: Turning the Lights Out in Europe by Yves Smith - Even though Putin had warned that the Nord Stream 1 gas pipeline had another sick turbine that needed repair, had offered Europe supply through Nord Stream 2, and had also said that Russia would need to test the Canadian-vacationing part when it returned (it still is not back in Russian hands), EU leaders instead obsessed about the one thing Russia repeatedly insisted was not happening: Russia keeping Nord Stream 1 turned off after its long-scheduled annual maintenance in July. Interfax provided a bland update of what is an attention-focusing event for Europe, that Russia is cutting the Nord Stream 1 gas flow further, to roughly 20% of capacity, because the other sick part is too sick and the globe-trotting part isn’t back in St. Petersburg, much the less put through tests so it can be restored to service. Presumably after that happens, the shipments over Nord Stream 1 can go back to the 40% level. But that is up in the air. From Interfax:Gazprom said on Monday that it was shutting down another Siemens gas turbine engine at the Portovaya compressor station as it was reaching the end of its operating period before overhaul (in accordance with Rostekhnadzor regulations and taking into account the technical condition of the engine).As a result, the daily capacity of the Portovaya station from 07:00 Moscow time on July 27 will be up to 33 million cubic meters per day compared to the current 67 million cubic meters per day (40% of the capacity). The underlying problem is the unrealistic thinking of the West, and particularly the EU. Whether you think Russia’s response was justified or not, the West had set out to destabilize Russia by turning Ukraine into NATO-lite. If the US reacted badly to the prospect of nuclear missiles in Cuba, just imagine how it would have reacted if Mexico joined a military alliance with Russia and accepted Russian training, funding, and armaments, and funded a civil war on its border, killing 14,000 English-speakers and creating over 1 million refugees. Despite the aggressive Western sanctions, including seizing hundreds of billions of central bank assets, seizing Gazprom infrastructure, and explicitly trying to break the Russian banking system and even breaking up Russia itself, Russia has been very restrained as far as counter-measures are concerned. So after loudly saying that the EU wants nothing to do with Russian energy or Russian pipelines, the EU should hardly be upset if Russia is tired of laboring not to give them what they asked for, an economic divorce. The problem is Europe is now upset that it’s getting what it acted like it wanted. Putin complained in at least two speeches about another turbine having a crumbling lining, confirmed by Siemens. He seemed pretty exasperated. Recall that Germany put Nord Stream 2 on hold when Russia recognized the breakaway republics. As you will see, this is proving to be yet another “Punish ourselves to hurt Russia” move. Per Bloomberg in May, Gazrpom indicates that it would start using the pipeline domestically. From Putin’s Q&A with the press in Iran on July 19. Note I have yet to see anywhere else an unpacking of the various ways Russian gas once got to Europe: [….] Putin was basically saying “What are we do to?” Even though Siemens is theoretically on the hook, it appears that all significant repairs are made outside Russia, evoking the specter of yet more parts stranded outside Russia. And after the doubts about when if ever Gazprom would get its peripatetic turbine back, if I were them, I wouldn’t let the other in-need-of-fixing part leave Russia until I had at least gotten the other one back.RT has a tidbit that is not pretty:Gazprom said earlier on Monday that the paperwork it had received from Canada and Siemens regarding the shipment of the turbine did not clear up sanctions-related questions.This is what Gazprom had sought, per Reuters:Gazprom said on Friday that it still had not obtained necessary documentation from Siemens Energy confirming the exemption from European Union and Canadian sanctions for a key turbine for the pipeline to be returned to Nord Stream’s Portovaya compressor station.Canada and the EU can’t gin up a short note on official stationery? Without some documentation of a sanctions waiver (after having gone on noisily about how because sanctions the part was held hostage in Canada), what assurance does Russia have that 1. there won’t be some punishment vis a vis the part delivery and 2. it won’t be subject to the same run-around if the second busted Nord Stream 1 part has to go to the EU or Canada, which seems likely?

European Union demands rationing of natural gas to wage war The European Union has committed its member states to reduce their natural gas consumption by 15 percent from next month until March next year. The energy ministers of the 27 EU countries adopted an EU Commission proposal on Tuesday. The way in which the cuts are implemented is up to the individual states and the targeted savings are voluntary. However, if an acute emergency occurs, mandatory savings targets can also be adopted if at least 15 member states representing 65 percent of the population agree. Originally, the EU Commission wanted to reserve the right to declare an energy emergency, but could not enforce this position. The austerity decision is being sold as an act of “solidarity” because all countries, regardless of how much they are affected by possible supply shortfalls, have to make the same savings. The reduction of demand across the EU is an expression of the “principle of solidarity enshrined in the EU Treaty,” the Commission’s text states. In fact, it is a war measure that was enforced by the EU Commission and the German government with brute force. The aim is to enable Europe to continue the proxy war against Russia in Ukraine for months and years, until Russia’s military defeat. Brussels and Berlin fear that resistance to energy scarcity, inflation and horrendous rearmament costs could lead to resistance and that social pressure on governments could jeopardize the EU’s cohesion. Therefore, the concentrated power of the EU apparatus is used to push through the austerity measures and to bring all members into line. Like any war, the war against Russia, driven by the United States and the European powers with billions of dollars in arms, requires unity, discipline, material sacrifice and the suppression of any internal opposition. The massive energy crisis, which has caused the prices of gas and petrol to explode and threatens to lead to a massive energy outage during the coming winter, is a direct result of the war in Ukraine. Even before the reactionary Russian attack on Ukraine, the commissioning of the completed Nord Stream 2 pipeline, which, with an annual capacity of 55 billion cubic metres, could meet 15 percent of the total European demand, was permanently cancelled. Other pipelines, which have been supplying Russian gas to the EU through Ukraine or Belarus for decades, stopped operating due to the war. Nord Stream 1, which has the same capacity as Nord Stream 2, currently supplies 40 percent of its capacity and only 20 percent from Thursday. Moscow has justified the supply reduction with the necessary maintenance of turbines, some of which fell victim to Western sanctions, and has denied the intention of wanting to stop operations altogether. The EU has rejected this as an excuse and accused Russia of deliberately trying to “use gas as a political weapon.” German Economics Minister Robert Habeck accused Russian President Vladimir Putin of playing a “perfidious game”: he tried to weaken the great support for Ukraine and drive a wedge into German society.

E.U. will ration natural gas to counter Russian threats - The European Union agreed yesterday to ration natural gas to help prevent a severe shortage of fuel for heating as the threat of a complete gas shutoff by Russia hangs over the 27-member bloc.Under the initiative, E.U. countries would voluntarily cut gas consumption by 15 percent between August and next April compared to annual averages over the same period. Mandatory cuts could be triggered in exceptional circumstances, according to the regulation.E.U. energy ministers endorsed the plan less than a week after the European Commission first proposed it — earning praise from European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, who called the move a “decisive step” to blunt the threat of a full gas disruption by Russian President Vladimir Putin.The move comes as Moscow continues to reduce flows of gas to Europe through the Nord Stream 1 pipeline to Germany.Gas prices have soared amid fears over supply shocks.“Reducing gas demand proactively allows us to avoid rushed or unilateral decisions when it is too late,” European Energy Commissioner Kadri Simson said yesterday during a press conference. “It will make it possible to plan the savings in the most efficient way, minimizing the impact on our people and businesses.”As much as the plan is aimed at ensuring energy security, it also could help nudge the E.U. closer to cutting its planet-warming pollution — if the move results in a sustained drop in demand and not just a shift to other suppliers of gas or other forms of energy, such as coal.Rationing gas is the only real option Europe has to address short-term supply shocks.New drilling or switching to new technologies are all medium-term efforts.Nearly 60 percent of the E.U.’s energy supplies are imported, and Russia has been its main supplier of fossil fuels. The bloc has set a goal of cutting emissions by 55 percent by 2030 under its climate law, and many countries have set coal phaseout targets, but it has been slower to build out renewable alternatives. The E.U. measure endorsed yesterday only applies for this winter, and member states can decide individually how best to cut their consumption.

Putin's new gas squeeze condemns Europe to recession and a hard winter of rationing - Europe's descent into an economic contraction looks to have been confirmed with Russia squeezing natural gas supplies to the region and heavy industry facing tough rationing in the coming months. Just days after Europeans breathed a sigh of relief as Russian gas giant Gazprom announced it would resume supplies through the Nord Stream 1 pipeline, it then announced Monday that flows would be reduced yet again. The announcement, with Gazprom saying it would be for maintenance of a turbine along the pipeline, was greeted with incredulity and condemnation in Europe. Ukraine's president, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, said the move — which will see flows to Germany fall to 20% of its capacity from an already low level of 40% — was tantamount to a "gas war" with Europe. Germany's economy minister, Robert Habeck, said the excuse that maintenance was the reason for the supply cut was a "farce." It puts Europe in a tricky situation as it contends with rampant inflation, the war in Ukraine and an already troubled supply chain following the Covid-19 pandemic. Germany, the region's largest economy and traditional growth driver, has a particular reason to worry. It's largely reliant on Russian gas and is sliding toward a recession. The government is particularly concerned about how it will keep the lights on over the winter: Habeck said Monday evening that "we have a serious situation. It is time for everyone to understand that," during an interview with broadcaster ARD. Habeck also said that Germany must reduce its gas consumption, noting "we're working on that." He said that in a scenario of low supplies, gas for industries will be reduced before private residences or critical infrastructure such as hospitals. "Of course it's a big concern, which I also share, that this can happen. Then certain production chains in Germany or Europe would simply no longer be manufactured. We have to avoid that with all the strength we have," Habeck said. With Russia under a raft of international sanctions in response to its war on Ukraine, gas is one weapon it can use against Europe. The region has previously received around 45% of its annual supplies from Russia and while it desperately tries to seek alternatives, such as U.S. liquefied natural gas, it cannot replace its Russian hydrocarbons fast enough. Unless the situation dramatically changes, analysts are predicting a difficult winter ahead for the Continent. "High energy costs are pushing Western Europe toward recession," S&P Global Market Intelligence said in a report Sunday.

Cold showers and more: German city turns off the hot water to survive Putin's gas cuts - The German city of Hanover has cut off hot water in public buildings, swimming pools, sports halls and gyms as Russian reductions in gas supplies fuel fears of a winter energy crisis.The city will also switch off public fountains and stop lighting up large buildings at night, as the city aims to reduce its energy consumption by 15%, according to a tweet from Hanover Mayor Belit Onay."This is a reaction to the impending gas shortage, which poses a major challenge for the municipalities - especially for a large city like Hanover," Onay said.The city will also reduce the times when heating is on in municipal buildings between October and March — excluding day care centers — convert all lamps to LED, ban mobile air conditioners, fan heaters or radiators, and install motion detectors in place of permanent lighting in public toilets, bicycle sheds, corridors and parking lots.Russian gas giant Gazprom announced Monday that it was halting another turbine in the Nord Stream 1 pipeline to Germany for maintenance purposes. The further cut meant gas flows, which were already operating at just 40% of capacity, fell to just 20%, prompting incredulity in Europe.German Economy Minister Robert Habeck called the maintenance justification a "farce" and EU leaders have accused the Kremlin of using state-owned Gazprom as a weapon in retaliation for Western sanctions over Russia's war in Ukraine. Cities around Germany, which is heavily reliant on Russian gas, have introduced similar measures, including Munich, Leipzig, Cologne and Nuremberg.

 Russian gas cut to Europe hits economic hopes, Ukraine reports attacks on coastal regions(Reuters) - Russia said it will cut gas supplies to Europe from Wednesday in a blow to countries that have backed Ukraine, while missile attacks in Black Sea coastal regions raised doubts about whether Russia stick to a deal to let Ukraine export grain. The first ships from Ukraine may set sail in days under a deal agreed on Friday, the United Nations said, despite a Russian missile attack on the Ukrainian port of Odesa over the weekend, and a spokesman for the military administration in the saying another missile had hit the Odesa region on Tuesday morning. Soaring energy costs and the threat of hunger faced by millions in poorer nations show how the biggest conflict in Europe since World War Two, now in its sixth month, is having an impact far beyond Ukraine. European Union countries are set to approve on Tuesday a weakened emergency proposal to curb their gas demand as they try to wean themselves off Russian energy and prepare for a possible total cut-off. The Ukrainian military on Tuesday reported Russian cruise missile strikes in the south and that Ukrainian forces had hit enemy targets. Serhiy Bratchuk, a spokesman from the military administration in Odesa, told a Ukrainian television channel that a missile fired from the direction of the Black Sea had struck the region, but gave no information on casualties. East of Odesa along the Black Sea coast, port infrastructure at Mykolaiv was damaged by an attack, according to the mayor Oleksandr Senkevich. A major fire broke out at an oil depot in the Budyonnovsky district of Russian-backed Donetsk People's Republic in eastern Ukraine after Ukrainian troops shelled the province, Russia's TASS reported, quoting a reporter at the scene. No casualties or injuries have been reported. Russian energy giant Gazprom, citing instructions from an industry watchdog, on Monday said gas flows to Germany through the Nord Stream 1 pipeline would fall to 33 million cubic metres per day from Wednesday. That is half of the current flows, which are already only 40% of normal capacity. Prior to the war, Europe imported about 40% of its gas and 30% of its oil from Russia.

Algerian gas supply to Spain suspended due to pipeline incident- (Xinhua) -- Algerian state-run company Sonatrach on Sunday announced the temporary suspension of natural gas supply to Spain, due to an incident that occurred this morning in the gas pipeline on the Spanish side. The gas supply of Medgaz pipeline will resume as soon as possible, as "the Spanish technical teams are carrying out the necessary repairs", Sonatrach said in a statement. Medgaz is a 210 km gas pipeline that connects the Algerian gas facilities of Beni Saf, to the port of Almeria in Spain, passing under the Mediterranean Sea. It can transport an annual volume of 8 billion cubic meters.

EU Looks To Replace Gas From Russia With Nigerian Supplies - The European Union is seeking additional gas supplies from Nigeria as the bloc prepares for potential Russian supply cuts, Matthew Baldwin, deputy director general of the European Commission's energy department, said on Saturday. Baldwin was speaking in Nigeria where he held meetings with officials from Africa's largest oil producer this week. He was told that Nigeria was improving security in the Niger Delta and planned to re-open the Trans Niger pipeline after August, which would yield more gas exports to Europe. The EU imports 14% of its total LNG supplies from Nigeria and there is potential to more than double this, Baldwin told Reuters by phone. Oil and gas output in Nigeria is being throttled by theft and vandalism of pipelines, leaving gas producer Nigeria LNG Ltd's terminal at Bonny Island operating at 60% capacity. "If we can get up to beyond 80%, at that point, there might be additional LNG that could be available for spot cargoes to come to Europe," Baldwin said. "They (Nigerian officials) said to us, 'Come and talk to us again at the end of August because we think we can deliver real progress on this'." Nigeria NLG is owned by state-oil company NNPC Ltd, Shell, TotalEnergies and Eni. The European Commission said on Wednesday that EU member states should cut their gas use by 15% from August to March. The target would initially be voluntary, but would become mandatory if the Commission declared an emergency. Last year, Nigeria exported 23 billion cubic metres (bcm) of gas to the EU, but the figure has been declining over the years. In 2018 the bloc bought 36 bcm of LNG from Nigeria, Baldwin said.

Nigeria-Morocco Gas Pipeline (NMGP) Project Updates - Two consulting firms have been chosen to conduct phase II of the FEED (Front End Engineering Design) study of the Nigeria-Morocco Gas Pipeline (NMGP) Project. The firms in question are the ILF Group and DORIS Engineering.ILF is an international engineering and consulting firm that helps its clients successfully execute technically demanding industrial and infrastructure projects. DORIS on the other hand is the “international reference for delivering high-quality engineering to the oil & gas and renewable markets.”The ILF and DORIS studies will focus on the onshore & offshore pipeline and compressor station engineering. It will also focus on the engineering surveys, the environmental & social impact assessment (ESIA) and land acquisition studies (LAS), and the project implementation framework.This appointment comes a few days after the Federal Executive Council (FEC), allowedNNPC Ltd to sign a memorandum of understanding with ECOWAS for the implementation of the project.Timipre Sylva, Minister of State for Petroleum Resources, briefed State House officials on the decision following the FEC meeting at the Presidential Palace in Abuja, which was led by Vice President Yemi Osinbajo.The minister revealed that the Nigeria-Morocco pipeline project was still in the early stages of engineering design, after which the project’s estimated cost would be determined. According to him, the pipeline will supply Nigerian gas to 15 countries in West Africa, up to Morocco, and then to Spain and Europe via the Kingdom.The Nigeria-Morocco Gas Pipeline (“NMGP”) is a new regional onshore and offshore gas pipeline that is intended to deliver natural gas resources of Nigeria to 13 countries in the West and North Africa as a continuation of the existing West Africa Gas Pipeline (“WAGP”)between Nigeria, Benin, Togo, and Ghana.Starting from Nigeria, the 5,660 kilometers long NMGP will pass through Benin, Togo, Ghana, Cote d’Ivoire, Liberia, Sierra Leone, Guinea, Guinea-Bissau, Gambia, Senegal, and Mauritania, to end at Tangiers, a Moroccan port on the Strait of Gibraltar, with a possible extension to Europe through Spain. The Nigeria-Morocco Gas Pipeline Project is estimated to cost US$ 25bn and it will be completed in stages over 25 years.

Russia’s New Gas Deals With Iran Are A Threat To The West - Russian President, Vladimir Putin, arrived in Tehran last week for the second time since he ordered the invasion of Ukraine on 24 February. Just before his arrival, Russia’s state gas giant, Gazprom, signed a US$40 billion memorandum of understanding (MoU) with the National Iranian Oil Company (NIOC) that is part of a wide-ranging agenda of increased cooperation between Russia and Iran. It builds upon ideas discussed in January between Putin and Iranian President, Ebrahim Raisi, and the visit early in June of Russian Deputy Prime Minister, Alexander Novak, both analysed in full by OilPrice.com, and is crucial to the current global gas crisis. Among other deals contained in the MoU, Gazprom has pledged its full assistance to the NIOC in the US$10 billion development of the Kish and North Pars gas fields with a view to their producing more than 10 million cubic metres of gas per day. The MoU also contains details of a US$15 billion project to increase pressure in the supergiant South Pars gas field on the maritime border between Iran and Qatar. Gazprom will additionally be involved in the completion of various liquefied natural gas (LNG) projects and the construction of gas export pipelines, according to Iranian news sources. This is designed by the Kremlin to give it even more control over future gas supplies coming out of Iran that might have found a home in southern Europe initially, before being transported north, to help alleviate the current gas supply crunch in major European countries. By also becoming more deeply involved in the huge South Pars gas field Russia has also positioned itself to disrupt LNG supplies coming out of Qatar and destined for Europe. The South Pars field is a 3,700 square kilometre area of the world’s largest gas reservoir that holds at least 1,800 trillion cubic feet of gas and at least 50 billion barrels of natural gas condensates, with the remaining 6,000 square kilometre North Field site belonging to Qatar. This takes on even broader geopolitical importance, given the ongoing interest of Russian and Iranian sponsor, China, in the perennially-controversial Phase 11 of the South Pars gas site.Gazprom’s focus on expanding Iran’s LNG capabilities comes at exactly the time when dramatically increasing LNG supplies is vital for European states to compensate for shortfalls in gas supplies resulting from bans on Russian gas imports. It is plainly identifiable as a tried-and-tested core KGB strategy that relies on a combination of gradually increasing pressure on an enemy and then just waiting for as long as it takes for him to give up as often being an excellent way of achieving victory. The Kremlin knows that from the very start of talk about banning gas imports from Russia, Germany – the de facto leader of the European Union (EU) and its executive branch, the European Commission (EC) – did not want to cut itself off from Russian gas imports. Indeed, Germany’s response for some time after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February appeared much less concerned with halting oil and gas imports from Russia and much more concerned with working out how best to continue to pay for them so that Russia would not stop them due to lack of payment. This followed the 31 March decree signed by Putin that required EU buyers to pay in roubles for Russian gas via a new currency conversion mechanism or risk having supplies suspended. Then, in a directive circulated to all EU member states on 21 April, the EC said that: “It appears possible [to pay for Russian gas after the adoption of the new decree without being in conflict with EU law].” The EC added: “EU companies can ask their Russian counterparts to fulfil their contractual obligations in the same manner as before the adoption of the decree, i.e. by depositing the due amount in euros or dollars.” The EC also stated that existing EU sanctions against Russia do not prohibit engagement with Gazprom or Gazprombank, beyond the refinancing prohibitions relating to the bank. “Likewise, they do not prohibit opening an account with Gazprombank, [although] such engagement or account should not lead to the violation of other prohibitions.”

 Major fire erupts at Donetsk oil depot after Ukraine shelling - Russia's TASS (Reuters) - A major fire broke out at an oil depot in the Budyonnovsky district of Russian-backed Donetsk People's Republic in eastern Ukraine after Ukrainian troops shelled the province, Russia's TASS reported on Tuesday, quoting a reporter at the scene. No casualties or injuries have been reported so far due to the fire, which was tens of meters high, TASS added. (Link) Reuters could not immediately verify the TASS report.

Saudi Arabia, Iraq helping Europe’s oil refineries with more crude supply - Saudi Arabia and Iraq are helping Europe’s oil refiners with more crude in an effort to help the continent reduce its reliance on Russia, Bloomberg reported. According to data compiled by Bloomberg, over 1 million barrels a day of crude has made its way during the first three weeks of July to Europe from the Middle East through a pipeline that crosses Egypt. Volumes have almost doubled compared to a year earlier. This comes as European companies are halting dealing with Moscow, following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

Iraq, Saudi Arabia send crude oil to Europe through Egypt - – Iraq and Saudi Arabia are working on sending their crude oil to Europe in an effort to help the continent’s oil refineries which are desperately trying to give up the oil supplies from Russia. According to a report recently published by Bloomberg, more than one million barrels per day of crude oil arrive in Europe coming from the Middle East in the first three weeks of July through a pipeline that passes from Egypt. This amount represents twice the volume sent to Europe a year ago. Shipments from Saudi Arabia dominate the flows through the pipeline, but Iraq is also increasing the quantities delivered to Europe, according to Bloomberg. Companies can either deliver their oil shipments via SUMED pipeline (also known as the Suez-Mediterranean Pipeline), an oil pipeline in Egypt running from the Ain Sokhna terminal in the Gulf of Suez to offshore Sidi Kerir, Alexandria in the Mediterranean Sea, or if their ships are small enough, oil shipments can be transported directly through the Suez Canal, which is how Iraq transports its oil shipments. Export volumes through the pipeline increased from about 800 thousand barrels per day in the previous month to the highest level since April 2020. In addition to these flows, about 1.2 million barrels per day were shipped from the Arabian Gulf toward the canal in the first three weeks of July, mostly from Iraq. This could raise the total flows from the Middle East to Europe to 2.2 million barrels per day, an increase of nearly 90 percent since January, just before the Ukrainian crisis.

Putin Promises to Keep the Gas Flowing to Europe - for Now - July 27, 2022 -Russian President Vladimir Putin said Russia would continue to supply Europe with natural gas, but warned that deliveries via the Nord Stream 1 pipeline could become constrained if sanctions prevent further maintenance on the pipeline, according to The Wall Street Journal. Putin asserted that the pipeline’s owner, the Moscow-controlled energy firm Gazprom, will honor and fulfill its responsibilities to Europe in remarks that he made late Tuesday after his visit to Tehran, reported the WSJ. Putin’s comments come amid the reduced flow of natural gas into Europe due to sanctions and other supply chain disruptions caused by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The Russian president stated that if a pipeline turbine sent to Canada for maintenance wasn’t sent back to Russia immediately, pipeline flows may quickly drop to 20% of capacity. Putin also noted that another turbine will require maintenance on July 26. The main Russian gas pipeline to Europe, Nord Stream 1, is presently offline due to maintenance and European nations are concerned that Moscow will not restart the pipeline after the scheduled repairs finish on Thursday. Amid soaring fuel prices and record levels of inflation, the European Union is already moving to ration fuel in the event of a protracted outage, according to the WSJ The European Union also unveiled new plans for potential rationing on Wednesday in an effort to pressure states to intensify their energy-conservation initiatives, reported the WSJ. The commission’s strategy includes limits on air conditioning and central heating as well as information on which businesses the government will prioritize when gas supplies run low. Before maintenance began, Gazprom reduced pipeline deliveries to 40% of their capacity last month and blamed Canadian sanctions for preventing the return of the turbine that was being serviced there. European officials rejected the turbine explanation as a political ruse to drive up energy prices and punish the EU for the sanctions that it imposed on Russia following its invasion of Ukraine, reported The Independent.

Russian Gas Supply Uncertainty Sends Asia LNG Prices Surging - Asian natural gas prices are rallying on fears that Russia will slash supply again and worsen a global fuel shortage. The North Asia liquefied natural gas benchmark jumped 12% Friday, and is trading near the highest level since Russia’s war in Ukraine upended the global market, according to data from S&P Global. Prices have room to rally further as several Asian importers are desperate for supply through the rest of the year. The natural gas market is on edge after Russia threatened to curb supply to Europe as soon as this week, only days after the restart of the crucial Nord Stream pipeline. LNG buyers in Japan and South Korea need to secure supply to refill inventories before winter, and are starting to outbid rivals in Europe. President Vladimir Putin has warned shipments via the Nord Stream pipeline could drop to 20% of capacity, from a current rate of 40%

Global gasoline cracks collapse, blow to refiners’ profits – - A sudden crash in global gasoline prices in the past two weeks has dented refiners’ profits, pushing up inventories in key trading hubs around the world while looming exports from China and India also add to pressure on growing stockpiles. Refiners will be forced to cut gasoline output to safeguard themselves against losses and switch to producing more profitable fuels, traders say, but summer demand is also being hurt by high pump prices in the United States and Europe, and by instability and easing seasonal demand in some parts of Asia This has led to a rise in inventories from Singapore to Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp and the United States, according to traders, analysts and inventory data. Asia’s top fuel exporter Taiwan’s Formosa Petrochemical Corp (6505.T) could reduce operating rates at their residue fluid catalytic cracking (RFCC) units, which are now running at full capacity, by 5% in the coming weeks. “We will sell more VLSFO (very low sulphur fuel oil) because their margins are better,” Formosa’s spokesperson K.Y. Lin told Reuters. VLSFO can be used as a feedstock for RFCC units to produce gasoline or sold as marine fuel. Asian gasoline margins have plunged more than 102% in July to a discount of 14 cents a barrel to Brent crude after hitting a record at a premium of $38.05 a barrel in June, Refinitiv data showed. They are also at the lowest for this time of the year since at least 2000. That has depressed Asian refining margins to 88 cents a barrel over Dubai crude on Monday, tumbling from a record $30.49 in June. Chinese state refiners are expected to raise refinery runs in August-September and increase exports to lower high domestic stocks after receiving new quotas, industry sources said.

 Oil refining margins collapse in Asia, cheaper crude needed: Russell (Reuters) - Refining margins in Asia have collapsed in recent weeks, leaving refiners on the precipice of making losses on every barrel of crude oil processed. The question is how will refiners, crude oil producers and consumers respond to this rapid shift in market dynamics. Refiners are likely to be tempted to cut processing rates in order to reduce the supply of refined products, thus boosting the price. Crude oil exporters, such as Saudi Arabia, may reverse recent hikes in their official selling prices (OSPs), which were largely believed by market watchers to be related to the now-vanishing high refinery margins. Consumers are likely to only increase demand if retail prices retreat significantly, a process that generally takes some time as the more expensive fuel has to work its way through the supply chain first. The profit margin at a typical Singapore refinery processing Dubai crude dropped to just 83 cents a barrel on Monday, down 97.3% from the record high of $30.49 a barrel reached on June 21. That peak was driven by several factors including strong demand for diesel and jet fuel as Asian economies recovered from the COVID-19 pandemic, the sharp decline in refined product exports from China, as well as those from Russia as Western buyers shunned cargoes after Moscow's Feb. 24 invasion of Ukraine. But the surge to record refinery profits was largely a middle distillates story, with the Singapore margin for refining a barrel of gasoil, the building block for diesel and jet kerosene, reaching a record high of $71.69 a barrel on June 24. It has since slipped to end at $38.54 a barrel on Monday, and while the decline looks precipitous, it's worth noting that the margin was just $8 this time last year, and $6.69 in July 2020. However, while the profit, or crack, for making gasoil remains relatively strong, the margins on gasoline and naphtha are considerably weaker. The profit for making a barrel of 92-RON gasoline in Singapore from Brent crude was $2.56 on Monday, a recovery from a loss of 16 cents at the end of last week, which was the lowest since May 2020, at the height of the economic slowdown caused by the initial COVID-19 outbreak.

India: Crude oil imports jump 89% to $47.5 billion in Q1 -India’s crude oil imports in Q1FY23 rose 17% on year to 60.2 million tonne (MT) as refineries stepped up processing to meet higher domestic demand for petroleum products including diesel. Exports of petroleum products also rose by 7.2% during the period. Imports, in value terms, were higher by 89% in Q1FY23 to $47.5 billion on year mainly due to costlier crude. India meets around 85% of its crude need through imports. In the whole of FY22, India’s crude oil import was 212 MT, valued at $120.4 billion. Domestic production of crude oil including condensate during the April-June period was flat at 7.45 MT, just 0.62% higher than in the corresponding period of last year. According to Petroleum Planning and Analysis Cell (PPAC), an attached office of the ministry of petroleum and natural gas, domestic refiners processed 65.8 MT crude during April-June period of the current fiscal which was 14.8% higher compared with the corresponding period of last fiscal. The consumption of petroleum products during April-Jun 2022 at 55.1 MT was higher 16.8% compared to 47.2 MT during the same period of the previous year, led by higher consumption of diesel to 22.2 MT from 18.4 MT in Q1FY22. Import of petroleum products was also higher by 21.6% at 10.7 MT in the first quarter of the current fiscal compared with the same period last fiscal. Exports, on the other hand, also increased by 7.2% to 16.3 MT.

Sri Lanka Introduces Fuel Rationing Via QR Code - Last week, the Minister of Power and Energy of the economic wasteland that is Sri Lanka,introduced "National Fuel Pass", a fuel rationing scheme amid the raging economic crisis and shortage of fuel in the island country.According to minister Kanchana Wijesekera, the new pass will guarantee the allocation of fuel quota on weekly basis. A QR code will be given for each National Identity Card number (NIC), once the vehicle identification number and other details are verified. As NDTV reports, people with registered vehicles will get their turns based on the last digit of their registration number. Tourists and foreigners will be given priority to take fuel in Colombo."Introduction to the National Fuel Pass will be held at 12.30 pm. A guaranteed weekly fuel quota will be allocated. 1 Vehicle per 1 NIC, QR code allocated once Vehicle Chassis number & details verified. 2 days of the week according to Last Digit of number plate for fueling with QR," Wijesekara said in an earlier tweet.

One day queuing for cooking gas in Embilipitiya, Sri Lanka – I recently visited my sister and her family in Embilipitiya, situated 190 kilometres from Colombo, during a holiday in Sri Lanka. The rural town is totally different to what I witnessed three years ago in 2019. The economic, social and political crisis engulfing Sri Lanka, as a part of the global crisis of capitalism, has devastated the area. Millions of people have been forced into grinding poverty because of the big business policies of the Rajapakse government, now ousted by a mass uprising, and its predecessors over the last seven decades. The severe scarcity of fertilisers and fuel has drastically disrupted the cultivation of banana, papaya, guava and other crops grown around Embilipitiya. Consequently, the vibrant market of small farmers and vendors in the town is all but empty. The bustling town, which previously operated 24 hours a day, is a ghost town by around 5pm, especially after the evening power cuts. Dozens of lorries that used to queue up and be loaded to transport crops to other cities are nowhere to be seen. Hundreds of small businesses that depended on agriculture have been wiped out. Even those farmers who managed to have a small harvest using limited amounts of fertilisers and traditional methods, struggle to bring their crops to the market and transport them to other parts of the country because of the severe fuel shortages. Across the island people have to wait in lines for days, in some cases over 10 days, to get a rationed amount of fuel. While I was there, my sister’s family received a phone call early in the morning telling her that the “yellow gas” (yellow coloured cooking gas cylinders distributed by Laugfs gas company) had arrived in town, and that the Police Station was distributing it. The previous Laugfs gas delivery happened last year. We quickly rushed there with our empty cylinder. By the time we arrived at 8am there were already about 300 people ahead of us. I saw the desperation of those in line because gas was the only alternative to cooking with firewood, a time consuming and laborious experience. Many families have already been forced to use firewood because of the severe gas shortages. I saw that numbers of health workers, including nurses, had joined the queue in their uniforms. Many people had also travelled long distances from surrounding areas. With utter contempt for those in line, the police and their accomplices were serving themselves from the back of the gas lorry while shouting and threatening villagers in the queue. We managed to buy a gas cylinder at about 2.30 pm. The price of a 12.5 kg gas cylinder was 6,895 rupees ($US19), up from 1,800 rupees ($US5), four times higher than six months ago.

This map shows the massive gas pipeline that Russia and China are building — China and Russia are in the final stages of building the first pipeline that can send gas from Siberia to Shanghai."Power of Siberia" — as the portion located in Russia is called — began delivering natural gas to northern China in December 2019, according to Chinese state media.In China, the pipeline runs down the eastern side of the country, past the capital city of Beijing and down to Shanghai. The middle phase started operations in December 2020, and the final southern section is set to begin gas deliveries in 2025, state media said.State-owned energy companies, Russia's Gazprom and China National Petroleum Corp., have been building the pipeline for about eight years.The China-Russia pipeline comes as Moscow faces the threat of losing natural gas purchases from the European Union, a big customer that aims to cut two-thirds of its Russian gas imports in the wake of the Ukraine war.China has been looking to diversify its energy sources. Beijing has refused to condemn Moscow for its unprovoked invasion of Ukraine in late February.The scale of the China-Russia gas pipeline indicates it is just one of many energy options for Beijing.Although Russia has reportedly invested $55 billion into its pipeline deal with China, natural gas imports through the pipeline have only totaled $3.81 billion since December 2019, according to China customs data as of June, accessed through Wind Information.The pace of Chinese purchases picked up in the first half of this year — nearly tripling from a year ago to $1.66 billion, the data showed.But China's gas imports from Turkmenistan during that time were far higher at $4.52 billion, up 52% from a year ago, the data showed.Natural gas remains a tiny fraction of China's energy imports, which are mostly of crude oil.By volume, Gazprom's gas exports to China via the pipeline rose by 63.4% to 7.5 billion cubic meters during the first half of the year, according to Russian news agency Interfax. The original deal aimed for 38 billion cubic meters in annual deliveries in the coming decades.The Interfax report said Gazprom's overall exports to countries not formerly part of the Soviet Union fell 31% to 68.9 billion cubic meters in the first six months of the year.In early February, China and Russia expanded their annual gas purchase agreement by 10 billion cubic meters — they did not specify when that would occur but said it was a "long-term agreement." Reuters estimated additional sales worth $37.5 billion over 25 years.The two countries have discussed building additional gas pipelines, including one expected to run from Siberia through the country of Mongolia. The Financial Times reported this month that Mongolia expects the new gas pipeline, known as the "Power of Siberia 2," to begin construction within two years.

Rosneft Begins Arctic Oil Terminal Construction -Russia’s oil giant Rosneft on Tuesday said it had launched construction works on an oil terminal for its Vostok Oil project in the Arctic, expecting the port to become the country’s biggest oil terminal by the end of this decade.Vostok Oil, in Russia’s Far East, comprises several groups of oil fields holding an estimated 44 billion barrels of oil. Initial work on the project began in January 2021. The total cost of its development has been estimated at $170 billion over the lifetime of the fields. The Vostok Oil project in Russia’s Far North is close to the Northern Sea Route that Rosneft wants to use to ship oil to Asia.Rosneft has also started drilling at the Payyakhskoye field, part of the massive Vostok Oil, the project’s chief executive Vladimir Chernov told Russian media on Tuesday. Rosneft expects oil to start flowing from the field in 2024, and the project Vostok Oil to deliver crude via the Northern Sea Route by 2027, Chernov was quoted as saying. Western analysts, however, doubt that Rosneft will be able to keep the timeline for the massive project’s development as Western sanctions are depriving Russia and its state-owned oil and gas firms of access to capital and technology. Last year, Rosneft was looking to attract some of the world’s largest oil trading houses to the Vostok Oil project, offering them to become investors in exchange for oil supply contracts.This year, investors are abandoning Russian projects after Putin invaded Ukraine. One of those major traders, Trafigura, said earlier this month that it had exited its 10-percent non-operational passive shareholding in Vostok Oil, selling the stake to a Hong Kong-registered trading company for an undisclosed price. The Western sanctions, which ban exports of technology for oil and gas to Russia, will also affect the timeline of the Vostok Oil development, analysts say.The Payyakhskoye field, at which Rosneft started drilling today, could see first production by 2029 instead of in 2024, the Russian giant says, according to research firm Rystad Energy.“Any delays in one part of the huge supply chain involved in the project will lead to the delay of the whole project,” Daria Melnik, senior analyst at Rystad Energy, told The Wall Street Journal earlier this month.

Nigeria’s Petroleum Import-Export Reveals $43bn Disparity -Nigeria’s petroleum imports has currently outweighed the value of its petroleum exports to the tune of $43 billion, according to report. This is coming as the Budget Office revealed that Nigeria’s debt has exceeded its revenue in the first four months of the year despite high oil prices. Nigeria, unlike other crude oil producers, has found it impossible to reap the benefits of today’s high oil prices, with oil revenues coming in 61 per cent below target during the period. That’s despite crude oil trading at highs not seen in years. The country’s crude oil production was relatively steady at 1.376 million bpd in the first quarter of this year compared to the previous quarter, according to the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries(OPEC’s) Monthly Oil Market Report, and 34,000 bpd below the same quarter last year. While Nigeria’s production slipped further in June 2022 to 1.238 million bpd, Nigeria’s oil revenue problem didn’t stem from a drop in production. The federal government has continued to battle oil theft, pipeline vandalism, and most critically, high petrol prices, which the country subsidizes.

Nigeria Unable To Benefit From High Oil Prices - Nigeria’s debt has exceeded its revenue in the first four months of the year despite high oil prices, Nigeria’s Budget Office has revealed on its website. Oil-rich Nigeria, unlike other crude oil producers, has found it impossible to reap the benefits of today’s high oil prices, with oil revenues coming in 61% below target during the period. That’s despite crude oil trading at highs not seen in years.Nigeria’s crude oil production was relatively steady at 1.376 million bpd in the first quarter of this year compared to the previous quarter, according to OPEC’s Monthly Oil Market Report, and 34,000 bpd below the same quarter last year. While Nigiera’s production slipped further in June 2022 to 1.238 million bpd, Nigeria’s oil revenue problem didn’t stem from a drop in production.Instead, Nigeria continues to battle oil theft, pipeline vandalism, and most critically, high gasoline prices, which the country subsidizes. The severe revenue shortfall does not allow Nigeria to service its debt. The cost of Nigeria’s gasoline subsidy will be about 10 times what it had originally budgeted, Nigeria’s President Muhammadu Buhari revealed in an April letter to lawmakers. That cost of that subsidy is expected to be just south of $10 billion.Unlike other major oil producers that have benefited handsomely from higher crude oil prices, Nigeria has negligible refining capacity, forcing it to import nearly all of the gasoline it consumes. And Nigeria must pay today’s high costs for that gasoline while continuing to sell it onto the consumer for much less in order to keep prices at 39 cents.The value of Nigeria’s petroleum imports far outweighs the value of its petroleum exports—to the tune of $43 billion. Nigeria has toyed with the idea of ending the gasoline subsidies, but the specter of fuel protests caused the President to scrap those plans.

Nigerian Oil Pipeline Runs Dry As Rampant Oil Theft Plagues Country -A 180,000-bpd pipeline in Nigeria hasn’t transported any crude across Africa’s top oil producer since the middle of June due to oil theft, a source with knowledge of the matter told Bloomberg on Wednesday.OPEC member Nigeria has been suffering for years of rampant oil theft from pipelines which has often forced operators to shut down crude links for repairs and even declare force majeure on crude loadings because oil couldn’t reach terminals on time.The pipeline targeted in the latest oil theft, Trans-Niger Pipeline, has not been formally shut yet, Bloomberg’s source said on condition of anonymity because they were sharing information that has not been made public yet.Per Bloomberg’s estimates, the Trans-Niger Pipeline, with its capacity of transporting 180,000 barrels per day (bpd), accounts for around 15% of Nigeria’s latest daily average oil production. Oil theft has been a never-ending issue in Nigeria’s oil industry for years, crippling supply and production and making international majors warier of investing in production assets in Nigeria’s onshore.A lack of investment and capacity has prevented Nigeria from reaching its target production under the OPEC+ agreement for more than a year. Nigeria has been the biggest laggard in the production pact for several months. As of June, Nigeria was already pumping 500,000 bpd below its OPEC+ target. Nigerian crude oil production averaged 1.238 million bpd last month, according to OPEC’s latest Monthly Oil Market Report (MOMR), while Nigeria’s June quota was 1.772 million bpd. Unlike other crude oil producers, Nigeria has not been able to take advantage of the multi-year high oil prices this year. Nigerian oil revenues have come in 61% below target for the first four months of 2022. That’s despite crude oil trading at highs not seen in years. Nigeria continues to battle oil theft, pipeline vandalism, and most critically, high gasoline prices, which the country subsidizes.

After lifting of force majeure, NOC increases oil production to 860,000 bpd --Libya’s state National Oil Corporation (NOC) announced yesterday that since it has lifted the state of force majeure last week, it has increased oil production from 560,000 barrels per day (bpd) to 860,000 bpd. It considers this a ‘‘relatively high volume of production’’ in such a short period of time. It further stated that it is striving to increase production and return it to its normal rates of 1.2 million bpd within two weeks.

Iran's Oil Revenues Soar By 580% As Crude Prices Rally - Iran's revenues from exports of oil and condensate surged by 580% during the first four months of the current Iranian year that begins on March 21, Iranian Minister of Economic Affairs and Finance, Seyyed Ehsan Khandouzi, said on Tuesday. Between March 21 and July 21, international crude oil prices have largely held above $100 per barrel after the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the sanctions on Russian oil exports upended global trade flows."Due to the increase in oil exports and our new budget's currency conversion rate, we saw a 580% increase in the treasury's income from the export of oil and condensate in the first four months of this year," the Iranian finance minister was quoted as saying by local news agency IRNA.Overall, Iran's budget income jumped by 48% in March-July compared to the same period of 2021, while government expenditures rose by 16%, the minister added."The government was focused on this issue to be able to earn a more stable income. This means that compensating the budget deficit was on the agenda of the government and it was realized in the first 4 months of this year," the minister said.Iran's 12-month inflation rate hit 40% in July, Iranian statistics showed last week. Prices of goods have soared since the government removed some subsidies earlier this year. Despite the diplomatic impasse over the nuclear deal, Iran has been preparing to rejoin the global oil market. The country has boosted production, as well as exports to its main market, China. If a new deal is reached between Iran and the world powers, the flow of Iranian oil abroad could increase by between 500,000 bpd and 1 million bpd, according to analysts. China has been the main outlet for Iranian crude oil exports since the U.S. re-imposed sanctions on the Islamic Republic's oil industry in 2018 when then-President Donald Trump pulled the United States out of the so-called Iranian nuclear deal, officially known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA).

Oil and Gas Produces $2.8B in Daily Profits Over 50 Years, Staggering New Analysis Shows -The global oil and gas sector has been clearing US$2.8 billion per day in profits over the last 50 years, concludes a new analysis based on World Bank data. Produced by Aviel Verbruggen, an energy economist at the University of Antwerp, the analysis is the first global assessment of Big Oil’s long-term profits, reports The Guardian. Out of the gobsmacking total pocketed by Big Oil—amounting to $52 trillion since 1970—86% is the pure profit grab of “oil rents”, which the World Bank defines as “the difference between the value of crude oil production at regional prices and total costs of production.” Fossil companies have been assured of perpetually sky-high profit margins, even after royalties are paid out to the countries in which they operate, thanks to political interference in the oil markets, the Guardian writes. “The huge profits were inflated by cartels of countries artificially restricting supply.” Bolstering those huge profits, the fossil industry benefits from subsidies amounting to a staggering $16 billion per day, according to the latest International Monetary Fund figures. While Verbruggen’s analysis has yet to be published, its accuracy was confirmed by experts from University College London, the London School of Economics, and Carbon Tracker. “You can buy every politician, every system with all this money, and I think this happened,” Verbruggen told the Guardian, contending that the trillions in profits pocketed by Big Oil since the 1970s have been weaponized to maintain the fossil status quo. What is certain, he added, is that “over the last 50 years, companies have made a huge amount of money by producing fossil fuels, the burning of which is the major cause of climate change. This is already causing untold misery around the world and is a major threat to future human civilization.”

OPEC+ Is Now 2.84 Million Bpd Below Its Oil Production Target --The OPEC+ group had a massive shortfall of 2.84 million barrels per day (bpd) in June between actual production and the target oil output level as part of the deal, two delegates at the alliance told Argus on Monday. As OPEC+ is unwinding its cuts, more and more members are falling further behind their quotas due to a lack of capacity or investment in supply. In June, the compliance rate at the OPEC+ group soared to 320% from an estimated 256% in May, according to Argus’s sources, suggesting that the gap between nameplate production per the agreement and actual production continues to widen. Per an Argus survey from earlier this month, OPEC+ pumped more than 2.5 million bpd below its target in June, despite a rebound in Russia’s oil production that helped the group’s output rise by 730,000 bpd from May. Russia’s oil production rose in June and was approaching the levels last seen in February, just before the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Most of the rebound was due to higher intake from domestic refiners. The ten OPEC producers in the OPEC+ pact pumped 24.8 million bpd of crude oil in June, OPEC data showed in the Monthly Oil Market Report (MOMR), with production falling 1 million bpd short of the target levels. Top OPEC producer Saudi Arabia naturally raised its crude oil production by the most in June compared to May. Yet, per OPEC’s secondary sources, even the Saudis were lagging behind their quota for June. Saudi Arabia’s oil production rose by 159,000 bpd to 10.585 million bpd. To compare, the Saudi target was 10.663 million bpd, so the Kingdom was 78,000 bpd below its quota last month using secondary source figures. OPEC+ is expected to continue to underperform by a lot compared to its production targets for July and August after the group decided to accelerate the rollback of the cuts and have those completely unwound by the end of August.

OPEC+ to weigh holding oil output steady or small hike, sources say -- OPEC and its allies will consider keeping oil output unchanged for September when they meet next week, despite calls from the United States for more supply, although a modest output increase is also likely to be discussed, eight sources said. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and allies led by Russia, collectively known as OPEC+, will by August have fully unwound record output cuts in place since the COVID-19 pandemic took hold in 2020. Oil has soared in 2022 to its highest since 2008, climbing above $139 a barrel in March, after the United States and Europe imposed sanctions on Russia over its invasion of Ukraine. Prices have since eased to around $108, as soaring inflation and higher interest rates raise fears of a recession that would erode demand. Of eight OPEC+ sources spoken to by Reuters, two said a modest increase for September will be discussed at the Aug. 3 meeting and five said output would likely be held steady. "There are various talks ranging from a small increase to a freeze on current levels," one of the OPEC+ sources said. A lack of an output increase would disappoint the United States, whose President Joe Biden visited Saudi Arabia this month, hoping to strike a deal on oil production. A senior US administration official said on Thursday extra supply would help to stabilise the market. Given the easing in oil prices since this year's March peak, some in OPEC+ do not believe there is a strong argument for a further hike in supply. "I expect production to not increase for September," another OPEC+ source said, adding the meeting was unlikely to discuss output beyond that. Any further supply increase by OPEC+ would be likely to fall short of pledged levels given that many producers have struggled to meet output targets following a lack of investment in oilfields. Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates are believed to hold the world's only sizeable amounts of unused production capacity. Some industry sources have questioned whether even Saudi output can easily reach maximum stated levels.

Bargain-hunting hedge funds boost oil positions: Kemp (Reuters) - Portfolio investors purchased oil futures and options for the second week running as at least some fund managers concluded that expectations of a recession and a recent sell-off were overdone. Hedge funds and other money managers purchased the equivalent of 31 million barrels in the six most important petroleum futures and options contracts in the week ending on July 19 (Link). Buying was heavily weighted towards the initiation of new bullish long positions (+26 million barrels) rather than liquidation of existing bearish shorts (-5 million). It was focused on crude rather than products with purchases of both Brent (+15 million barrels) and NYMEX and ICE WTI (+15 million). There were only minor adjustments in U.S. gasoline (+2 million barrels), U.S. diesel (+1 million) and European gas oil (-3 million). Even after the buying, the net position across all six contracts is relatively low at just 485 million barrels (28th percentile for all weeks since 2013). Crude positions are especially low at just 381 million barrels (21st percentile). Relatively bearish positioning, combined with the retreat in prices that set in after the middle of June, has improved the risk-reward ratio and encouraged at least some investors to re-enter the market to profit from any rebound.

USA EIA Lowers Oil Price Forecasts -- The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) lowered its Brent crude oil price forecasts for 2022 and 2023 in its latest short term energy outlook (STEO). According to its July STEO, the EIA now sees the average Brent spot price coming in at $104.05 per barrel this year and $93.75 per barrel in 2023. The EIA’s previous STEO, which was released in June, forecasted that the average Brent spot price would be $107.37 per barrel in 2022 and $97.24 per barrel in 2023. In its July STEO, the EIA predicts that the average Brent spot price will be $104.27 per barrel in the third quarter of this year and $96.97 per barrel in the fourth quarter. In its previous STEO, the EIA saw the 3Q and 4Q averages coming in at $111.28 per barrel and $104.97 per barrel, respectively. Looking at 2023 quarterly figures, the EIA’s latest STEO sees 1Q, 2Q, 3Q, and 4Q Brent spot prices averaging $95 per barrel, $94 per barrel, $93 per barrel, and $93 per barrel, respectively. The EIA’s June STEO saw 1Q, 2Q, 3Q, and 4Q Brent spot prices coming in at $99.30 per barrel, $96.65 per barrel, $96 per barrel, and $97 per barrel, respectively. “We expect the Brent crude oil price will average $101 per barrel in 2H22 and then fall to $94 per barrel in 2023,” the EIA stated in its latest STEO. “The forecast price declines are the result of expected increases in global oil inventories in late 2022. Most of the price declines in our forecast occur in 2H22, with prices falling from $123 per barrel on average in June to $97 per barrel in 4Q22,” the EIA added. “Although inventories build in our forecast, they are currently lower than in 2019, which may limit some of the downward price pressures associated with rising inventories and raises the potential for continuing volatility. In addition, we expect more balanced markets in 2023. As a result of this balance, crude oil prices in our forecast decline slowly through 2023, falling from $97 per barrel in 4Q22 to $93 per barrel in 4Q23,” the EIA continued. The EIA noted that its July STEO is subject to heightened uncertainty resulting from a variety of factors, including Russia’s “full-scale invasion of Ukraine”. “The possibility of economic activity being less robust than assumed in our forecast could result in lower-than-forecast energy consumption,” the EIA added. “Factors driving uncertainty about energy supply include how sanctions affect Russia’s oil production, the production decisions of OPEC+, and the rate at which U.S. oil and natural gas production rises,” the EIA continued. At the time of writing, the price of Brent crude oil stood at $106.99 per barrel. Brent has closed above $120 on several occasions this year but closed under $100 per barrel on July 12 for the first time since April.

Oil falls on concerns expected Fed hike will impact fuel demand --- Oil fell on Monday, reversing earlier gains but continuing a recent losing streak, on concerns that an expected increase in interest rates in the U.S., the world's biggest oil user, may limit fuel demand growth. Brent crude futures for September settlement dropped 48 cents, or 0.5%, to $102.72 a barrel at 0205 GMT, down for a fourth day. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures for September delivery fell 65 cents, or 0.7%, to $94.05 a barrel, also down for a fourth day. "The market tone is likely to remain bearish amid worries that interest rate hikes would slash global fuel demand and that the resumption of some Libyan crude oil output would ease tightness in global supply," said Kazuhiko Saito, chief analyst at Fujitomi Securities Co Ltd. Oil futures have been volatile in recent weeks as traders try to reconcile the possibilities of further interest rate hikes that could limit economic activity, and thus cut fuel demand growth, against tight supply from the disruptions in the trading of Russian barrels because of the Western sanctions amid the Ukraine conflict. Officials at the U.S. Federal Reserve have indicated that the central bank would likely raise rates by 75 basis points at its July 26-27 meeting. On the supply side, Libya's National Oil Corporation (NOC) aims to bring back production to 1.2 million barrels per day (bpd) in two weeks, NOC said in a statement early on Saturday. The European Union said last week that it would allow Russian state-owned companies to ship oil to third countries under an adjustment of sanctions agreed by member states last week aimed at limiting the risks to global energy security. However, Russian Central Bank Governor Elvira Nabiullina said on Friday that Russia will not supply oil to countries that decide to impose a price cap on its oil.

WTI, Brent Futures Gain 2% as Russia's Oil Exports Fall -- Oil futures nearest delivery settled Monday's session higher following reports Russian crude oil exports fell by more than 13% this month amid a tightening grip of Western sanctions that are set to come into full force by the end of the year, while risk-on sentiment in the financial markets lent additional support. Russia's oil shipments have declined for five consecutive weeks, according to Bloomberg estimates, taking them down by 480,000 barrels per day (bpd) since mid-June. That's based on a four-week average that helps to provide a better picture of the trend than the observation of flows from one week to the next. Shipments to China and India are down by somewhere between 15% and almost 40% from their post-invasion peak. The final scale of the decline will depend on where almost 4 million barrels (bbl) of crude on tankers that are yet to show final destinations is discharged. Much may eventually go to Asia, say analysts. Asian countries, dominated by China and India, are still taking more than half of all the crude shipped from Russia, up from about one-third before the invasion. Flows to Asia have accounted for between 55% and 56% of Russia's total seaborne exports since early June. Several economic indicators have highlighted slowing U.S. growth, although a strong labor market has offered a conflicting market signal. According to a transportation equipment manufacturer responding to the Dallas Federal Reserve Bank's Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey released Monday, "Broad-based inflation, together with difficulties in recruiting while our customers' activity is strong, creates a puzzling and uncertain environment." The Dallas Fed survey showed a slowing manufacturing sector in Texas in July, albeit still growing. Business conditions were seen worsening for a fifth consecutive month in July in the Lone Star state. Worsening economic conditions do offer some respite in that they cool demand and, with it, inflationary pressure that could mean the Federal Reserve won't have to be as aggressive as some market analysts have suggested. To be sure, after this month's expected 75 point basis hike, FOMC are expected to agree to a 50 point basis hike in the federal funds rate at their meeting in September. Still, expectations have dialed down even higher rate hikes, which coincides with a weaker U.S. dollar. The U.S. Dollar Index settled down 0.25% at 106.355 after inside trade, holding above Friday's 105.99 three-week low. At settlement, NYMEX September West Texas Intermediate futures were up $2 at $96.70 bbl, with ICE September Brent advancing $1.95 to $105.15 bbl. NYMEX August RBOB futures rallied 15.92 cents to $3.3820 gallon, and August ULSD futures registered a 6.1 cents gain to $3.5166 gallon.

Oil rises as Russian gas cut to Europe may encourage switching to crude (Reuters) - Oil rose on Tuesday on expectations Russia's reduction in natural gas supply to Europe could encourage a switch to crude, though concerns over weakening fuel demand because of an expected increase in U.S. interest rates limited gains. Brent crude LCOc1 futures for September settlement climbed 45 cents, or 0.4%, to $105.60 a barrel by 0112 GMT, following a 1.9% gain in the previous day. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude CLc1 futures for September delivery increased 34 cents, or 0.4%, to $97.04 a barrel, having gained 2.1% on Monday. Russia tightened its gas squeeze on Europe on Monday as Gazprom GAZP.MM said supplies through the Nord Stream 1 pipeline to Germany would drop to just 20% of capacity. Russia's cut in supplies will leave countries unable to meet its goals to refill natural gas storage ahead of the winter demand period. Germany, Europe's biggest economy, faces potentially rationing gas to industry to keep its citizens warm during the winter months. "Higher gas prices, triggered by Russia's gas squeeze, could lead to additional switching to crude from gas and support oil prices," said Hiroyuki Kikukawa, general manager of research at Nissan Securities. "But a tug-of-war between concerns about weakening demand due to the economic slowdown amid rising U.S. interest rates and fears of supply risk because of prolonged Russia-Ukraine conflict will likely to continue for some time," he said, predicting WTI to remain in a trading range centred on $100 a barrel. The U.S. central bank is widely expected to raise interest rates by 75 basis points at the conclusion of its policy meeting on Wednesday. A hike of that magnitude would effectively close out pandemic-era support for the economy. The gap between Brent and WTI has widened to levels not seen since June 2019 as easing gasoline demand in the United States weighs on U.S. crude while tight supply supports the international Brent benchmark.

Crudes Fall as IMF Again Cuts Growth Outlook, USD Firms -- Except for the ULSD contract that settled the session 1.5% higher on rallying natural gas, oil futures moved lower Tuesday, after the consumer confidence data showed Americans feel more pessimistic about the economy than at any point in the last 18 months, dimming the outlook for discretionary spending while lending support for the U.S. dollar index ahead of an expected rate hike by the U.S. Federal Open Market Committee. Additionally, International Monetary Fund cut its global growth projections to 3.2% this year, down 0.4% from the previous outlook, citing the lingering impact of inflation and the war in Ukraine as two major factors behind the downgrade. In the United States, reduced household purchasing power and tighter monetary policy is likely to drive economic growth down to 2.3% this year and 1% in 2023, estimates IMF. In China, further lockdowns, and deepening real estate crisis would press growth down to 3.3% this year -- the slowest in more than four decades, excluding the pandemic, if realized. And in the euro area, growth is revised down to 2.6% this year and 1.2% in 2023. "The world may soon be teetering on the edge of a recession," said Jeff Kearns, managing editor of the IMF blog. Further evidence of economic slowdown could be found in U.S. consumer confidence data released Tuesday morning that showed Americans feel increasingly unhappy about the outlook for the economy and personal finances. The confidence index fell for the third straight month in July, slipping a larger-than-expected 2.7% to 95.7 compared with expectations for a 96.8 reading. The decline in confidence surprised some economists who felt gasoline prices that have declined from record highs in mid-June might spark some economic optimism. Earlier in the session, the oil complex got a leg up on reports that Russia cut natural gas flow to Europe on the key Nord Stream 1 pipeline to 20% of capacity, potentially deepening an energy crisis across the continent while triggering gas-to-oil switching in heating and power generation. With Russian gas flow through Gazprom's Nord Stream 1 pipeline now cut to 20% 33 million cubic meters a day, it is increasingly likely the European Union will face a gas supply shortage and potentially gas rationing this winter, according to analysts. At settlement, NYMEX September West Texas Intermediate futures fell $1.72 to $94.98 per bbl, with ICE September Brent declining $0.75 to $104.40 per bbl. NYMEX August RBOB futures dropped 2.70 cents to $3.3550 gallon, and August ULSD futures registered a 6.73-cent gain to $3.5839 gallon.

WTI Rises Modestly After Second Straight Weekly Crude Draw -- Oil prices ended the day lower as worries about a recession dulled demand expectations and increased supply threats from the Biden admin's SPR. The oil market market continues to show "significant downside risk and fear of recession," said Robbie Fraser, manager, global research & analytics at Schneider Electric.The "supply side headline about an additional 20 million barrels of oil being made available from the [Strategic Petroleum Reserve] between September and October was also a bearish catalyst for oil," Tyler Richey, co-editor of Sevens Report Research, told MarketWatch, adding that the planned SPR releases have been "largely on schedule in recent months." For now all eyes will be on tonight's API data and tomorrow's official data to see if these trends are continuing.API

• Crude -4.073mm (-1.121mm exp)
• Cushing
• Gasoline
• Distillates

Acccording to API, Crude stocks fell significantly more than expected last week (the second straight weekly draw if it carries over into the official data tomorrow)...WTI was hovering around $95.25 ahead of the API print and moved very modestly higher after the crude draw...We note that WTI found support again for now at its 200DMA...Finally, we note that the gap between global oil benchmarks has blown out in recent days...“The slackening of gasoline demand is weighing on the WTI complex,” brokerage PVM Oil Associates Ltd wrote this week. “At the same time, Brent prices have found support from a plethora of sources,” including underproduction by key oil producers.WTI-Brent is now over $9 - the widest spread since April 2020 when WTI went negative...

The Large Rate Hike Fueled Concerns about the Demand Outlook Oil rose by $2 a barrel on Wednesday as a report of lower inventories in the United States and cuts in Russian gas flows to Europe offset concern about weaker demand and the 0.75% U.S. interest rate hike. The large rate hike fueled concerns about the demand outlook and would probably boost the U.S. dollar, making dollar-denominated commodities, such as crude oil, more expensive for other currency holders. Oil has soared in 2022, reaching a 14-year high of $139 a barrel in March after Russia's invasion of Ukraine added to supply worries and as demand recovered from the pandemic. Since then, concerns of economic slowdown and rising interest rates have weighed, despite supply outages in Libya and Nigeria and cuts in Russian gas flows to Europe. After a sharp drop in the last two weeks, U.S. gasoline demand rebounded by 8.5% week on week, according to the data. WTI for September delivery gained $2.28 per barrel, or 2.40% to $97.26. September Brent gained $2.22 per barrel, or 2.13% to $106.62. RBOB for August delivery gained 7.38 cents per gallon, or 2.20% to $3.4288 The EIA reported that crude oil stocks held in the SPR in the week ending July 27th fell by 4.5 million barrels to 474.5 million barrels, the lowest level since June 1985. It also reported that U.S. crude oil output increased by the most since December 2021. Output increased by 200,000 bpd on the week to 12.1 million bpd. Meanwhile, U.S. weekly crude exports increased to the highest level on record of 4.548 million bpd, up 789,000 bpd on the week. A senior G7 official said the Group of Seven, including the United States, Canada, Japan, Germany, France, Italy and Britain, aim to have a price-capping mechanism on Russian oil exports in place by December 5th, when European Union sanctions banning seaborne imports of Russian crude come into force. The G7 want the price on Russian crude to be set by members of the buyers' cartel at a level above Russian production costs, so as to provide an incentive for the Kremlin to keep pumping, but much below the current high market prices. IIR Energy reported that U.S. oil refiners are expected to shut in about 391,000 bpd of capacity in the week ending July 29th, increasing available refining capacity by 245,000 bpd. Offline capacity is expected to fall to 344,000 bpd in the week ending August 5th. The Federal Reserve increased its benchmark overnight interest rate by three-quarters of a percentage point on Wednesday in an effort to cool the most intense breakout of inflation since the 1980s, with "ongoing increases" in borrowing costs still ahead despite evidence of a slowing economy. The Federal Open Market Committee said "Inflation remains elevated, reflecting supply and demand imbalances related to the pandemic, higher food and energy prices, and broader price pressures."

Oil Rises as US Exports Soar and Stockpiles Tumble | Rigzone - Oil rose after a government report showed demand for US crude rising globally amid a supply crunch and traders shrugged off the Federal Reserve’s decision to raise interest rates by 75 basis points. West Texas Intermediate rose 2.4% to settle at $97.26 a barrel, while gasoline futures climbed 2.2%. US crude stockpiles dropped the most since the end of May, falling by 4.52 million barrels last week, according to the Energy Information Administration. Adding to bullish sentiment, crude exports rose to a record as the spread between US- and London-traded futures widened with Europe scrambling to replace Russian barrels. The Fed lifted interest rates by 75 basis points for a second straight month in the most aggressive measures to combat inflation since the early 1980s. Fears over an economic slowdown have whipsawed commodity markets as traders weigh a tight physical crude market against a weaker long-term outlook. “The Fed’s decision was not a catalyst for the crude market but did remove some fears” of an even-higher rate hike, said Rebecca Babin, a senior energy trader at CIBC Private Wealth Management. “Crude trading recently has been highly correlated with macro headlines, but it should be noted that physical fundamentals improved meaningfully today and is the real driver of price action today.” Oil has jumped more than 25% since the start of the year, although the bulk of the gains triggered by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine have been reversed. The supermajor oil explorers such as Shell Plc and Exxon Mobil Corp. are scheduled to report second-quarter earnings this week that will show bumper profits after energy prices surged. Adding to tight supply concerns, a power outage in Kazakhstan reduced electricity deliveries to a pumping station on a key crude pipeline, according to the nation’s Energy Ministry. The CPC pipeline is scheduled to handle about 1.4 million barrels a day in August, according to data compiled by Bloomberg WTI for September delivery rose $2.28 to settle at $97.26 a barrel in New York. Brent for September settlement gained $2.22 to settle at $106.62 a barrel. One of the most significant oil-market moves this week has been the widening gap between the West Texas Intermediate and Brent contracts. On Wednesday, the US benchmark was trading at more than $9 below Brent, after closing the day before with the biggest discount since 2019.

Oil mixed as U.S. gasoline demand rebounds but recessionary fears loom (Reuters) -Oil prices were mixed on Thursday as concerns about a potential global recession that would knock energy demand offset lower U.S. crude inventories and a rebound in gasoline consumption. Brent crude futures rose 52 cents to settle at $107.14 a barrel, after gaining $2.22 on Wednesday. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude (WTI) fell 84 cents to settle at $96.42 a barrel, after rising $2.28 in the previous session. Prices pared gains in mid-morning trade after the U.S. Commerce Department reported the world's biggest economy unexpectedly contracted in the second quarter, fuelling concerns about a recession that could hit energy demand. Consumer spending grew at its slowest pace in two years and business spending declined. Investors focused on U.S. oil data from Wednesday that showed crude stockpiles fell by 4.5 million barrels last week, more than quadruple forecasts, while gasoline demand rebounded by 8.5% week on week.[EIA/S] "The U.S. consolidated its position as the world's largest petroleum exporter," Citi analysts said in a note, as combined gross exports of crude oil and refined products stood at a record 10.9 million barrels per day. U.S. crude exports reached a record 4.5 million bpd last week as WTI traded at a steep discount to Brent. However, in a bullish signal, U.S. crude oil production growth could stall due to a lack of fracking equipment and crews, as well as capital constraints, executives said this week. Prices found further support from the energy supply battle between the West and Russia. The Group of Seven richest economies aims to have a price-capping mechanism on Russian oil exports in place by Dec. 5, a senior G7 official said. Meanwhile, Russia has cut gas supplies via Nord Stream 1, its main gas link to Europe, to just 20% of capacity. That could lead to switching to crude from gas and prop up oil prices in the short term, analysts said. "We increase our total estimates for additional oil demand from gas to oil switching by 700,000 bpd from October 2022 through March 2023," JP Morgan analysts said in a note. However, this could be offset by normalising Libyan supply, leading to a largely balanced global oil market in the fourth quarter, followed by a 1 million bpd stockbuild in the first quarter of 2023, they added. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies will consider keeping oil output unchanged for September when they meet next week, despite calls from the United States for more supply, although a modest output increase is also likely to be discussed, eight sources said.

Oil Futures Wobble as US Economy Again Shrinks in Q2 - After rallying more than 2% early in the session, oil futures settled Thursday with mixed results. That came after government data from Bureau of Economic Analysis showed the U.S. economy shrunk for the second consecutive quarter in ending June, entering into what many economists call a technical recession under pressure from soaring inflation, rising interest rates, and downtrend in consumer spending. These headwinds among others are thought to increasingly weigh on a still-resilient labor market that has added more than 1 million jobs in the second quarter at a time when the U.S. economy shrunk by 0.9%, according to BEA estimates released Thursday morning. Gross domestic product, a broad measure of the goods and services produced across the economy, contracted by a steeper 1.6% annualized pace in the first three months of 2022. The consecutive quarters with negative GDP mark a rare contraction that many economists attribute to the distortions created by excessive government spending during 2 1/2 years of the pandemic. Whether or not the United States is facing a recession, former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers warned that when inflation is as high as it is, at 9.1% in June according to the consumer price index, and the labor market is very tight, a recession has always followed, adding that "a soft landing represents a kind of triumph of hope over experience." Pushing back against that view, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen on Thursday gave a glass-half-full assessment of the economy, acknowledging a slowdown that she called necessary to tame inflation while rejecting the notion the country had entered a recession. "We do see a significant slowdown in growth," Yellen said at a news conference on Thursday. She said a true recession is a "broad-based weakening of the economy. That is not what we're seeing right now." Despite the negative GDP print, stocks on Wall Street rallied again on Thursday as the U.S. dollar softened in afternoon trading to settle the session 0.09% lower at 106.236, initially boosting the oil complex. West Texas Intermediate futures for September delivery fell to $96.42 per barrel (bbl) at settlement after trading as high as $99.84. Brent September futures registered a $0.52 gain for a $107.14-per-bbl settlement ahead of the contract's expiration Friday afternoon, while the next-month delivery October futures expanded its discount to September delivery to $5.31 per bbl. NYMEX August RBOB contact settled the session 3.58 cents higher at $3.4646 gallon, while sharply expanding its premium to September contact to 36.28 cents, suggesting a short squeeze ahead of the contract's expiration Friday afternoon. NYMEX August ULSD futures declined 3.10 cents to $3.6863 per gallon, while the September contract settled the session with a 7.25-cent discount.

Crude oil futures inch higher in rangebound trade amid US GDP contraction - Crude oil futures were higher in mid-morning Asian trade July 29, though it remains trapped in a well-worn range, as investors continued to weigh signs of macroeconomic weakness against a tight physical market. At 10:28 am Singapore time (0228 GMT), the ICE October Brent futures contract was up 48 cents/b (0.47%) from the previous close at $102.31/b, while the NYMEX September light sweet crude contract rose 73 cents/b (0.76%) at $97.15/b.Despite notching intraday rises of $2/b or more on most days this week, oil prices have mostly failed to hold onto those gains as investors continued to fret over weakening demand. US data continued to show signs of economic weakness, with the US GDP contracting for a second straight quarter in the three months ended June, data from the Commerce Department showed July 28. While the data appeared to confirm a technical recession for the US economy, analysts nonetheless noted that the labor market remains tight with hundreds of thousands of jobs added each month. "The technical recession was not declared official, considering that the US labor market remains healthy, but tighter conditions ahead suggest that such risks remain prominent,"

Oil prices surge $4/bbl as chances of OPEC+ supply boost dim — Oil prices jumped more than $4 a barrel on Friday as attention turned to next week’s OPEC+ meeting and dimming expectations that the producer group will boost supply. Brent crude futures for September settlement, due to expire on Friday, gained $3.29, or 3.1%, to trade at $110.43 a barrel by 11:05 a.m. (1505 GMT) after touching their highest since July 5. The more active October contract was up $4.42 at $106.25. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures rose $4.85, or 5%, to $101.27 a barrel. Both contracts were set for a weekly rise of about 7% but also on track for a second monthly loss, with Brent down 3.8% for July and WTI down 4.2%. Stronger stock markets supported oil on Friday, as did a weaker dollar, which makes oil cheaper for buyers with other currencies. “These days, there has been a lot of macro influences on the oil market with the stock market making a nice rebound and a similar fall in the dollar feeding into (today’s prices),” Global equities, which often move in tandem with oil prices, were up on the hope that disappointing growth figures would encourage the U.S. Federal Reserve to ease up on monetary tightening. A Reuters survey forecast Brent would average $105.75 a barrel this year with U.S. crude averaging $101.28. Front-month Brent futures are selling at a rising premium to later-loading months, a market structure known as backwardation, indicating tight current supply. “The oil market in Europe is considerably tighter than in the U.S., which is also reflected in the sharply falling Brent forward curve,” said Commerzbank analyst Carsten Fritsch. Investors will watch the next meeting of the Aug. 3 meeting of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and allies led by Russia, together known as OPEC+. OPEC+ sources said the group will consider keeping oil output unchanged for September, with two saying a modest increase would be discussed. A decision not to raise output would disappoint the United States after President Joe Biden visited Saudi Arabia this month hoping for a deal to open the taps. Analysts said it would be difficult for OPEC+ to boost supply, given that many producers are already struggling to meet production quotas.

Oil Prices Soar As Market Shrugs Off Recession Fears - The price of crude oil skyrocketed on Friday as the market generally ignored the crude oil demand implications from worries about the technical recession.At 11:40 p.m., ET, WTI crude was trading near $100 at $99.94 per barrel, an increase of $3.52 (+3.65%) on the day. Brent crude was trading above $110 per barrel at $110.20, up $3.06 (+2.86%) on the day.The market cannot seem to brush off the tight supply situation that currently exists. Another bullish factor for crude oil on Friday was the Energy Information Administration’s publication of its numbers for U.S. crude oil production for May, which showed that U.S. crude oil production actually fell in May instead of rose, contrary to the EIA’s latest estimates from its Short Term Energy Outlook.The news that OPEC+’s meeting next week would likely end with no significant production target increase also bolstered prices to a significant degree. On Thursday, five OPEC+ sources suggested that OPEC+ was likely to keep its production targets for September steady with August levels. Two OPEC+ sources said that the group could discuss a small output hike. The market is aware, however, that even a hike in production targets is unlikely to result in an actual OPEC+ production boost due to chronic underproduction compared to the group’s current targets.WTI prices are not only up on the day but also up on the week. Prices have come down over the past month, however. WTI traded at nearly $110 per barrel this time last month. Prices are up more than $20 per barrel so far this year.Despite the high price of crude oil and the recession, global oil demand doesn’t seem to be declining, Amrita Sen, director of research at Energy Aspects, told Bloomberg on Friday.With indications that crude demand hasn’t yet fully recovered from its Covid days, inventories are tight, even with millions of barrels of crude oil leaving Strategic Petroleum Reserves around the globe. When this flow of crude stops flowing from the SPR in October, the market could get even tighter.

ICE Brent Futures Climb Above $110 Ahead of OPEC Meeting- Oil futures nearest delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange and Brent crude traded on the Intercontinental Exchange settled the last trading session of July mostly higher, with the international crude benchmark Brent contract for September delivery expiring near a one-month high. The gains came ahead of next week's meeting among the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and Russia-led producers, with sources close to the ongoing negotiations suggesting the 23-nation alliance plans to keep crude production steady. OPEC+ ministerial meeting scheduled for Aug. 3 is unlikely to result in a sizable production increase for September, according to media reports, countering claims by the White House that Saudi Arabia would boost oil production following President Joe Biden's visit to the Middle East earlier this month. Sources close to OPEC+ talks suggest the group is leaning toward keeping their crude output target unchanged at 43.85 million barrels per day (bpd) for September or to increase production slightly as laggard members attempt to catch up on missed quotas. The OPEC+ agreement calls for both Saudi Arabia and Russia to produce 11 million bpd in August, followed by Iraq with a daily production quota of 4.7 million bpd and the United Arab Emirates at roughly 3.2 million bpd, according to OPEC+ following their June 30 meeting. Speculation has swirled for weeks as to whether Saudi Arabia is capable to boost and sustain production capacity above 11 million bpd. Saudi Crown Prince Mohamed bin Salman recently said the kingdom will seek to increase its oil production to 13 million bpd as early as next year. The reality is that Saudi Arabia produced near 12 million bpd for only a brief period in April 2020 when Riyadh was locked in a bitter price war with Moscow. Further supporting the oil complex is weakening U.S. dollar index that came under pressure from better-than-expected economic data in the Eurozone where the economy expanded by 0.7% during the second quarter compared with expectations for a modest 0.2% expansion. The drivers of the growth were Italy and Spain, where tourism industries boosted GDP growth by 1% and 1.1%, respectively. However, Germany, a traditional engine of the European economy, came to a standstill at 0% growth following a miniscule 0.2% expansion during the first three months of the year. At settlement, West Texas Intermediate futures for September delivery rallied $2.20 to $98.62 per barrel (bbl). Brent September futures expired $2.87 higher at $110.01 per bbl, while the next-month delivery October futures expanded its discount to the now expired contract to $6.04 per bbl with a settlement at $103.97 per bbl. NYMEX August RBOB contract advanced 2.35 cents for a $3.4881-per-gallon expiration while expanding its premium to the September contract to 37.49 cents -- a fresh 10-year high backwardation for the prompt gasoline spread. NYMEX August ULSD futures expired at $3.6247 gallon, down 6.16 cents on the session, while the September contract settled at $3.5490 per gallon.

Oil Has Another Monthly Loss for July, Bulls Hedge on OPEC Meet -U.S. crude rose for a third time this week but still settled below the key $100 per barrel level while Brent remained above the three-digit mark amid concerns about what global oil producing alliance OPEC+ might do with output quotas when it holds its August meeting next week. As trading for July closed, New York-based West Texas Intermediate, or WTI, posted a monthly loss of 7.2%, after June’s 7.4% slide. For the day and week though, WTI was up. The U.S. crude benchmark settled Friday's session up $2.20, or 2.3%, at $98.62 for its September delivery contract. For the week, September WTI was up 4.1%, after a decline of 13% over three preceding weeks. London-traded Brent for October delivery showed a decline of about 4.5% for July, after June’s 5.7% drop. For Friday itself, the global crude benchmark settled up $2.14, or 2.1%, at $103.97. For the week, October Brent was up 5.7%, extending last week’s 2.7%. Prior to that, Brent had fallen a cumulative 17% over five weeks. Oil’s rise on the day and week came as attention turned towards OPEC+’s Aug. 3 meeting, which will decide on the group’s September production. Sources within the 23-nation OPEC+ told media on Friday that the alliance might hold production unchanged or raise it only slightly for September — despite arduous efforts by the Biden administration to cajole the Saudi-led and Russian-supported alliance in boosting output appreciably. “All eyes are now on that meeting which will take place against the backdrop of lower economic growth forecasts, heightened recession risks and a U.S. economy that may or may not already be in recession, depending on who you're talking to,” Oil prices took a tumble earlier in July on worries of an oncoming recession — confirmed this week by anemic second-quarter U.S. economic data. The Commerce Department reported on Thursday that US GDP posted a negative 0.9% growth in the second quarter, after a contraction of 1.6% in the first quarter. The back-to-back negative quarters technically places the economy in a recession. Separately, the Commerce Department said Friday that the Personal Consumption Expenditure Index — an inflation indicator closely followed by the Federal Reserve — grew 6.8% in the year to June after being dormant in two earlier months, intensifying the central bank’s fight against price growth. US consumer sentiment, meanwhile, hovered near all-time lows towards end-July, the University of Michigan said in its closely-followed consumer poll on Friday. Consumer spending accounts for 70% of U.S. GDP.

Saudi Arabia plans to build 75-mile-long mirrored skyscrapers that will cut through mountains and feature high-speed rail, a sports stadium, and a yacht marina — and cost up to $1 trillion - Saudi Arabia is planning to build the Mirror Line — two parallel skyscrapers that will stretch for 75 miles over varied terrain — at a cost of up to $1 trillion, or the entire GDP of Indonesia. The Wall Street Journal reported details about the project on Saturday after obtaining confidential planning documents. The skyscrapers, which are set to have mirrored sides, will cut through mountains and desert, span all the way to the coast and into the water. Artist renderings of the project were published by The Journal. The outlet reported the project is expected to cost up to $1 trillion, according to sources close to the project. It's intended to house 5 million people and feature a high-speed train running under the buildings, vertical farming, a sports stadium, and a yacht marina, according to The Journal. The Mirror Line is part of plan for a linear community that was previously announced by Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, who directed officials to create something on the scale of the pyramids of Egypt.

Saudi crown prince MBS meets Emmanuel Macron on European rehabilitation tour - — Saudi Arabia’s Mohammed bin Salman engaged in a long handshake with French President Emmanuel Macron at the Élysée Palace on Thursday, in the latest sign of the crown prince’s rehabilitation nearly four years after the killing of journalist Jamal Khashoggi. Mohammed’s trip to France, where he was attending a working dinner with Macron, followed a stop in Greece this week to sign a flurry of bilateral agreements. He also met this month in Riyadh with President Biden, who as a candidate had pledged to make the prince a pariah. And he made a state visit in June to Turkey, which once led the charge to hold Saudi Arabia responsible for the killing of Khashoggi — a Saudi citizen, Washington Post opinion columnist and critic of the crown prince — who was dismembered in his country’s consulate in Istanbul in 2018. These high-level encounters with Mohammed would have been hard to imagine not long ago. But the war in Ukraine and a downturn in the global economy have reaffirmed the Saudi kingdom’s status as a critical source of global energy and investment and brought world leaders pleading for assistance, including an increase in oil production. Macron, Biden and some other Western leaders have also argued there is no way to address global crises, such as the war in Yemen, without the help of the crown prince, who could rule Saudi Arabia for decades.

Russia Fired On Israeli Jets Over Syria In "One-Off": Israel's Defense Chief -On Tuesday Israel's defense chief issued a surprise admission connected to the war in Syria, specifically related to the literally hundreds of strikes Israel's air force has conducted on targets in Syria over the past few years.Defense Minister Benny Gantz described an incident in May wherein Israeli military jets operating over Syria were engaged and fired on by a Russian anti-aircraft battery. He said the Russian missiles missed their target, downplaying it as a "one-off incident". Israel has of late semi-regularly attacked positions in and around Damascus, especially to the south and near the Golan Heights, claiming to be targeting "Iranian assets" and weaponry. Last month for example, Syria was forced to halt all flights from Damascus international airport, the country's largest, following Israeli airstrikes that destroyed runways and crucial infrastructure, earning severe condemnation from Moscow.Reuters presents the context behind Defense Minister Gantz's disclosure in the following: But Israel's Channel 13 TV reported that, on May 13, a Russian-operated S-300 air defense battery fired on Israeli jets as they carried out a Syria sortie - without hitting any."It was a one-off incident," Gantz told a conference hosted by Channel 13, when asked to confirm the report. The Russian launch happened when the aircraft "were no longer around", he said.The Syrian Army regularly seeks to repel Israeli raids via its own Russian-supplied anti-air defense systems, but the unprecedented aspect to the May incident is that it was an S-300 unit operated by the Russian military in Syria that targeted the Israeli aircraft. It may have been the Russians giving Israeli forces a severe and final warning.Russia has been getting more forceful in its denunciations of these airstrikes, with a similar July 2 daytime attack that reportedly killed two Syrian civilians resulting in Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova saying the following: "We strongly condemn such irresponsible actions that violate the sovereignty of Syria and the basic norms of international law, and we demand their unconditional cessation."

US and Taliban enter talks to release $3.5 billion in central bank currency reserves amid humanitarian crisis - The summit comes as the humanitarian crisis in Afghanistan worsens since the militant group took power almost a year ago.Afghanistan's sanctioned economy has lost significant international capital since the US withdrew from the country. US and Taliban officials met in Uzbekistan for talks to unlock roughly $3.5 billion in central bank foreign exchange reserves amid a worsening humanitarian situation in Afghanistan. A US delegation told the Taliban senior officials that the move to unlock reserve funds needed to speed up, and they said the funds had to be used to benefit Afghan people, according to a Thursday readout from the State Department. Additionally, the meeting aimed to resolve how to allow Afghanistan's government to access its central bank reserves while also stemming the Taliban's access. Afghanistan's central bank holds about $9 billion in foreign exchange reserves outside the country, with about $7 billion sitting in the US. Last month, the Taliban's foreign minister, Amir Khan Muttaqi, met US officials in Qatar to discuss releasing the frozen Afghan funds. Since the US pulled out of Afghanistan last summer and the Taliban took power, the country has lost international aid which accounted for more than 40% of its GDP. Now, there's been ongoing crises and the UN said millions in Afghanistan face severe hunger. Earlier this year, President Joe Biden signed an executive order to allow some of the Afghan central bank's US-based assets to be deployed as aid.

Some Implications of the UN’s Ukraine Grain and Russia Fertilizer/Food Agreements –Yves Smith - Since the battlefield action in Ukraine has slowed down a tad as Russia has been rotating troops and allegedly moving in more materiel, the big news story has been the UN success in consummating two deals. The one much talked about is coming up with a process for getting grain supposedly stuck in the Ukraine ports shipped out. The text for “Initiative for the Safe Transportation of Grain and Food Products from Ukrainian Ports” is embedded at the end of this post.The second agreement, which has gotten very little attention, is that of the UN committing to “facilitate the unimpeded exports to world markets of Russian food and fertilizer.” This goes well beyond the process established for transport of grain out of Ukraine. To work, several elements of the current sanctions against Russia and Belarus would need to be unwound. Since as we will explain, we doubt this will happen to the degree needed. If so, Russia will have succeeded in firmly establishing that blame for hunger resulting from reduced shipments of its fertilizer and food will lay squarely with the so-called Collective West.More generally, these two agreements illustrate the fix that the US, Europe, and their Asian allies have gotten themselves into, by throwing massive economic sanctions at a country that is a major player in way too many commodities they can’t live without, from oil and gas to aluminum, titanium, neon, wheat…to nitrogen, phosphorus, and potassium fertilizers. They believed they could break Russia’s economy and use the resulting chaos to resume 1990s-style looting, either by splitting up the country or installing Yeltsin 2.0.Instead, Russia is recovering from the sanctions body blow, although some sectors like auto parts are still in a great deal of pain, while the difficulties the West is experiencing, particularly politically destabilizing inflation in food and fuel, and potentially even shortages, are set to get worse.So far, the sanctions bosses have been unwilling to roll back their programs, no matter how clear it becomes that they are hurting the US and its allies more than Russia. Instead, the West remains firmly committed to trying to increase the Russia punishments, even when they’ve run out of measures that have any teeth, as the EU’s new, seventh round of sanctions shows.And the sanctions cheating they’ve allowed hasn’t done much to mitigate the damage. For instance, Europe playing along with Poland’s posturing that it isn’t buying Russian gas has just hurt Europe. Poland is buying Russian gas, laundered through Germany, backflowed through the Yamal-Europe pipeline. But Russia reduced Europe’s supply to reflect Poland no longer making direct purchases, so Europe is having to make do with less gas. Similarly, who is kidding whom with Russia selling discounted oil to India, which then makes its way back to buyers in Europe that pretend they are on a Russian oil fast?One of the big issues is that the US and its allies have made the anti-Russia programming so loud and pervasive that they are now caught in their own narrative. They would perceive it as too much of a loss of face to roll back sanctions, even counterproductive ones. And they’ve made companies correctly afraid of being seen as giving succor to the enemy. They worry that they are exposed not just to secondary sanctions but also to reputational damage. That is why, for instance, so many Western companies pulled out of Russia right after the special military operation started even though most weren’t required by sanctions to do so.

Russian missiles strike Odessa port day after grain deal, Ukraine says - Russian missiles hit the Black Sea port of Odessa on Saturday, Ukrainian officials said, imperiling a deal Moscow and Kyiv reached a day earlier to allow shipment of millions of tons of trapped grain and ease a global food crisis.The military command in southern Ukraine said two Kalibr cruise missiles hit the port’s infrastructure but not the grain silos in Odessa — one of the country’s largest and most important seaside trading cities.Air raid warnings rang at about 11 a.m. with the sounds of explosions echoing across the city. The military’s southern command reported no casualties. It said air defense systems shot down two other missiles in the attack, which the U.S. ambassador to Ukraine described as “outrageous.”The strike threatens an agreement that diplomats had hailed less than 24 hours earlier as a breakthrough after months of negotiations. Friday’s deal, brokered by the United Nations and Turkey, would help lift a Black Sea blockade that exacerbated global hunger, especially in Africa and the Middle East.A keystone of the deal is Russia’s promise not to attack Odessa and two other ports involved in the shipments. The deal includes security assurances for both Ukraine and Russia, which agreed not to “undertake any attacks against merchant vessels and other civilian vessels and port facilities” tied to the initiative.“This attack casts serious doubt on the credibility of Russia’s commitment to yesterday’s deal and undermines the work of the UN, Turkey and Ukraine to get critical food to world markets,” Secretary of State Antony Blinken said in a statement late Saturday. Ukraine’s ambassador to Turkey said the attack showed the deal with Russia wasn’t “even worth the signed paper,” while a Ukrainian Foreign Ministry official called it a “spit in the face” of the U.N. chief and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan.

Nearly 40 Ukraine prisoners killed in blast, say Russian officials - Russia and Ukraine accused each other Friday of shelling a prison in a separatist region of eastern Ukraine, an attack that reportedly killed dozens of Ukrainian prisoners of war who were captured after the fall of a key southern city in May. Both sides said the assault was premeditated with the aim of covering up atrocities. Russia claimed that Ukraine's military used US-supplied multiple rocket launchers to strike the prison in Olenivka, a settlement controlled by the Moscow-backed Donetsk People's Republic. Separatist authorities and Russian officials said the attack killed 53 Ukrainian POWs and wounded another 75. Moscow opened a probe into the attack, sending a team to the site from Russia’s Investigative Committee, the country's main criminal investigation agency.

Russian forces strike Mykolaiv port infrastructure – mayor (Reuters) - Russian forces have struck port infrastructure in Ukraine's southern Mykolaiv region, Mayor Oleksandr Senkevich said on Tuesday. "A massive missile strike was launched on the south of Ukraine from the direction of the Black Sea, and with the use of aviation," he told Ukrainian state television, providing no details on the aftermath of the strike. Last Saturday, Russia struck another southern Ukrainian port of Odesa, casting doubt on a plan to restart Ukrainian grain exports. The grain deal aims to allow safe passage for grain shipments in and out of Ukrainian ports, blockaded by Russia since its Feb. 24 invasion. Russia has blamed Ukraine for stalling shipments by mining the port waters.

Ukraine Moves To Criminalize Russian Passport Application - Less than a month after Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a hugely controversial decree ordering that "all citizens of Ukraine" be given "the right to apply for admission to the citizenship of the Russian Federation in a simplified manner," Ukrainian Deputy Prime Minister Irina Vereschuk revealed on Friday that lawmakers intend to make obtaining Russian citizenship as a Ukrainian a criminal offense.In a Telegram post, Vereschuk said that the matter had previously been discussed during a closed interdepartmental meeting, RT reported."The question is not so much a legal one as a political one. On the one hand, the occupier's passport helps an ordinary person to survive the temporary occupation. On the other hand, how to explain it to our citizens who stand to die for us all on the front lines? Including for the fact that there will never be Russian passports on our land. You can have a long and difficult discussion about legal subtleties, human rights and the need to survive under occupation. But let's not forget: there is a lot of Ukrainian blood on the red Russian passport - military and civilian, women and children."

Ukraine wants big banks to be prosecuted for 'war crimes,' Zelenskyy's top economic aide says - Major U.S. and European banks should be prosecuted for "committing war crimes" over their financing of trade with the Russian regime, according to a top aide to Ukraine president Volodymyr Zelenskyy.Oleg Ustenko, economic advisor to Zelenskyy, said the Ukrainian government believes banks, such as JPMorgan, HSBC and Citi, are aiding the Kremlin's war efforts in Ukraine through financing companies that trade oil with Russia. "Everybody who is financing these war criminals, who are doing these terrible things in Ukraine, are also committing war crimes in our logic," he told CNBC's Hadley Gamble Tuesday on "Capital Connection."JPMorgan, HSBC and Citi did not immediately respond to CNBC's request for comment on those allegations.Asked directly if he wants to see these banks prosecuted for war crimes, Ustenko said: "Exactly."Ustenko said Zelenskyy believes these banks should be held accountable for prolonging the conflict and the war on Ukraine. His comments came in response to a FT report last week, which said that Ukraine's government wrote to the chiefs of U.S. and European banks — such as Jamie Dimon from JPMorgan and Noel Quinn from HSBC — urging them to cut ties with the groups that are trading Russian oil.

German government to supply heavy tanks to Ukraine - The German government is playing an increasingly aggressive role in NATO’s proxy war against Russia, arming the pro-Western regime in Kiev to the teeth.On Monday, Ukraine received its first Gepard anti-aircraft tanks from Germany. “Today, the first three Gepards officially arrived,” Defence Minister Olexiy Resnikov announced on Ukrainian television. In addition, he said, tens of thousands of rounds of ammunition had also been handed over. A total of 15 Gepards were expected to arrive, Resnikov added.This is the second delivery of so-called heavy weaponry from Germany and the first delivery of Western-designed tanks to Ukraine. Like the seven self-propelled howitzer 2000s already handed over to Kiev by Berlin, the Gepard tanks aim to further escalate the war.The range of the tanks against targets in the air is up to 5,000 metres. The rate of fire of the two tank barrels is 550 rounds per minute each, making a total cadence of 1,100 rounds per minute. The tanks are to be used primarily against the Russian Air Force but can also engage targets on the ground.The actual number of tanks delivered could end up being even higher than Resnikov indicated. In May, Chancellor Olaf Scholz (Social Democratic Party, SPD) had promised Kiev substantially more Gepards after a closed government meeting in Meseberg Castle. To repel the Russian offensive in the Donbass, he said, the country wanted to “supply up to 50 Gepard tanks suitable for this purpose.”Since then, Germany has literally flooded Ukraine with weapons. The government’s official tally of “German lethal and non-lethal military support for Ukraine” is now so long that only a fraction can be reproduced here. Among others, the following have been delivered so far:

• 900 “Panzerfaust 3” bazookas with 3,000 shells
• 14,900 anti-tank mines
• 500 STINGER anti-aircraft missiles
• 2,700 STRELA anti-aircraft missiles
• 7 self-propelled howitzer 2000s including adaptations, training and spare parts (a joint project with the Netherlands)
• 21.8 million rounds of small arms ammunition
• 50 bunker busters
• 100 MG 3 machine guns with 500 spare barrels and breechblocks
• 100,000 hand grenades
• 5,300 explosive charges
• 100,000 metres of detonating cord and 100,000 explosive charges
• 350,000 detonators
• 280 motor vehicles
• 7,944 RGW 90 Matador anti-tank weapons.

Additional supplies are planned to include:

• 53,000 rounds of anti-aircraft ammunition
• 8 mobile ground radars and thermal imagers
• 3 self-propelled howitzer 2000s
• 4,000 rounds of anti-aircraft training ammunition
• 10 (+10 as option) autonomous surface drones
• 43 reconnaissance drones
• 54 M113 armoured troop carriers with armament (systems from Denmark, conversion financed by Germany)
• 30 Gepard anti-aircraft tanks including approximately 6,000 rounds of anti-aircraft ammunition
• IRIS-T SLM air defence system
• COBRA artillery tracking radar
• 3 MARS multiple rocket launchers with ammunition
• 3 armoured recovery vehicles
• 5,032 handheld anti-tank weapons

IMF cuts global GDP forecast as economic outlook grows gloomy The International Monetary Fund on Tuesday cut its global growth projections for 2022 and 2023, dubbing the world's economic outlook "gloomy and more uncertain." The IMF now expects the world economy to grow 3.2% this year, before slowing further to a 2.9% GDP rate in 2023. The revisions mark a downgrade of 0.4 and 0.7 percentage points, respectively, from its April projections. The Washington-based institute said the revised outlook indicated that the downside risks outlined in its earlier report were now materializing. Among those challenges are soaring global inflation, a worse-than-expected slowdown in China and the ongoing fallout from the war in Ukraine. "A tentative recovery in 2021 has been followed by increasingly gloomy developments in 2022," the report said. "Several shocks have hit a world economy already weakened by the pandemic: higher-than-expected inflation worldwide — especially in the United States and major European economies — triggering tighter financial conditions; a worse-than-anticipated slowdown in China, reflecting COVID19 outbreaks and lockdowns; and further negative spillovers from the war in Ukraine," it added. The anticipated slowdown would mark the first quarterly contraction in global real GDP since 2020. A "plausible" but less likely alternative scenario could see global growth fall to around 2.6% in 2022 and 2.0% in 2023, the IMF said, putting global growth in the bottom 10% of outcomes since 1970. The World Bank last month slashed its 2022 global growth outlook to 2.9% from an earlier estimate of 4.1%, citing similar macroeconomic pressures. Worsening growth prospects in the U.S., China and India drove the IMF's downward revisions. The U.S.'s GDP outlook was lowered 1.4 percentage points to 2.3%, driven be weaker-than-expected growth in the first half of 2022, reduced household purchasing power and tightening monetary policy. China's economy was seen growing 1.1 percentage points short of previous estimates, following extended Covid lockdowns and a deepening real estate crisis. The world's second-largest economy is now expected to grow 3.3% in 2022 — its lowest clip in four decades, barring the initial fallout from the Covid-19 crisis in 2020. India's forecast was cut 0.8 percentage points to 7.4%, largely due to less favorable external conditions and more rapid policy tightening. Meanwhile, the euro zone's outlook was lowered 0.2 percentage points to 2.6%, though the IMF said greater fallout from the war in Ukraine was likely to hit further in 2023, particularly in the major economies of Germany, France and Spain. Russia's economy contracted less than expected in the second quarter despite wide-reaching economic sanctions over its unprovoked invasion of Ukraine, the IMF said. Its 2022 projection was revised up 2.5 percentage points, though its estimated growth rate remains negative at -6.0%. Global inflation continues to rise It comes as inflation continues to track higher through 2022, led by rising food and energy prices. Global inflation is now forecast to hit 6.6% in advanced economies and 9.5% in emerging market and developing economies this year — an upward revision of 0.9 and 0.8 percentage points, respectively. "It will take longer for inflation to go away and the overall magnitude of inflation is expected to come later this year," Tobias Adrian, financial counsellor and director of the Monetary and Capital Markets Department at the International Monetary Fund, told CNBC's Joumanna Bercetche Tuesday afternoon. "We would expect a recession that is fairly shallow. A recession with growth rates around zero for the next year. That's in the adverse scenario, it's not a very sharp recession," like the one we saw the wake of Covid-19 and 2008 global recession, he added. With rising prices fueling a global cost-of-living crisis, the IMF said taming inflation should be policymakers' number one priority. "Tighter monetary policy will inevitably have real economic costs, but delay will only exacerbate them," the report said.

Poorer nations could suffer from U.S. efforts to slow inflation - U.S. officials are still scrambling to contain the highest inflation the United States has seen in decades. But the world’s leading economic policymakers see another reason to worry ahead: Poorer economies could be swamped as the Federal Reserve tries to rein in U.S. prices. During an 11-day swing through Asia this month, Treasury Secretary Janet L. Yellen and her counterparts from wealthy nations in Europe and elsewhere made clear that they are beginning to grapple with how to mitigate the economic shock waves hitting low- and middle-income countries — in part because of tighter financial conditions in the rich countries. Emerging market countries already faced mounting economic distress from the large amounts of spending required to fight the pandemic and, later, price spikes for food and fuel caused by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. But tighter U.S. monetary policy will worsen those problems, because rising interest rates in the United States can push up the cost of financing debt for the dozens of low-income countries that borrow in dollars. How U.S. and other Western policymakers respond could have major political and economic consequences, internationally and domestically. American exports could be imperiled if foreign markets deteriorate, and a global economic slowdown would threaten the U.S. recovery. Biden administration officials face questions about how aggressively to respond to these challenges. Yellen, for instance, is pushing China to allow nations in crisis to reduce what they owe to Beijing. But administration officials are also set to reject calls from other Democrats to back the disbursement of additional aid through the International Monetary Fund (IMF), action that would need the support of the United States. Asked about high levels of government debt in the developing world, Yellen told reporters last week that tighter monetary policy “can make those debt problems, which already are very severe, more difficult.” Her comments were later echoed at meetings of the Group of 20 finance ministers in Indonesia by Kristalina Georgieva, the managing director of the IMF, which provides emergency financing. The European Central Bank’s surprise decision on Thursday to increase its benchmark interest rate by half a percentage point — the first such move in 11 years — could lead to poorer nations’ currencies losing even more value. “With tightening financial conditions,” Georgieva said, “the debt service burden is a harsh — and for some countries, unbearable — burden.” Countries considered emerging markets — typically defined by having some level of economic development but not yet “advanced” wealth — are already under the most pressure they’ve faced in roughly 30 years, many economists say. About 60 percent of poor countries are “in debt distress or at high risk” of it, the World Bank has said. Sri Mulyani Indrawati, Indonesia’s finance minister, warned at the opening of the G-20 of a “triple threat” facing the developing world: soaring inflation, the covid pandemic and the effects of the war in Ukraine. Already, the number of people worldwide who are hungry has exploded from 135 million to 276 million this year alone, a trend that is part of the deteriorating financial conditions in much of the world, she said.

Toyota deepens production cut for July to 5,200 vehicles on heavy rains (Reuters) - Heavy rains in western Japan will cost Toyota Motor Corp an additional 1,000 or so vehicles in lost production in July, the automaker said on Friday, bringing its total estimated cut in output for the month to 5,200. It marks the second time this week that Toyota has revised its expected cut in domestic production, which it initially said would total 4,000 vehicles. Heavy rain in Toyota's home prefecture of Aichi and surrounding areas hit parts procurement and caused the automaker to suspend production at some lines in domestic factories, it has previously said. Toyota said it would suspend production on Monday at two lines at its Toyota Industries Corporation factory that produces the RAV4 sports utility vehicle (SUV), including a plug-in hybrid version. A spokesperson previously said the lowered output would make it difficult for the automaker to reach its global production target of around 800,000 vehicles in July. Toyota said this week production for the April-June quarter fell around 10% short of its initial plan, although it struck a relatively optimistic note about its business from August onwards. Its production in recent months has been hit by global chip shortages as well as the COVID-19-related lockdowns in China.

Yuan weakens ahead of Fed as COVID worries trump stimulus hopes (Reuters) - China's yuan slightly weakened against the dollar on Tuesday ahead of an expected U.S. interest rate hike and as lingering concerns over domestic COVID-19 cases overshadowed optimism about Beijing's efforts to stimulate the economy. Onshore yuan CNY=CFXS was changing hands at 6.7527 at midday, 7 pips weaker than the previous late session close, despite the central bank setting a firmer midpoint. The U.S. Federal Reserve is expected to raise rates again on Wednesday by 75 basis points, with the market focused on any clues about the future pace of tightening. China reported 976 new coronavirus cases for July 25, including 148 symptomatic cases, up from 800 new cases a day earlier. Maybank said in a report that sentiment continues to be curbed by COVID uncertainties, while "eyes are also on the Biden -Xi call by the end of July, and whether the U.S. will call off a trip by House Speaker Nancy Pelosi to Taiwan - an act that could escalate tensions between the U.S. and China." The anxiety weighed on sentiment, which had benefited from signs that China is stepping up its support for the economy. A source told Reuters on Monday that China will launch a $44 billion real estate fund to help property developers resolve a crippling debt crisis. China has also pledged credit support to tourism and culture firms that are facing operational challenges.

FM spokesperson warns of serious consequence over Pelosi's potential Taiwan visit- Xinhua (Xinhua) -- The Chinese side will take firm and strong measures to safeguard sovereignty and territorial integrity if the United States insists on going ahead with its House of Representatives Speaker Nancy Pelosi's potential visit to Taiwan, a foreign ministry spokesperson said Monday. "The Chinese side has repeatedly made clear to the U.S. side our serious concern over Pelosi's potential visit to Taiwan and our firm opposition to the visit," spokesperson Zhao Lijian told a regular news briefing. "We are fully prepared for any eventuality," he said. The United States must assume full responsibility for any serious consequence arising thereof, Zhao added.

Pakistan Agriculture: Record Harvests Forecast After Heavy Monsoon Rains -In the first few months of 2022, Pakistan has exported more rice to China than Vietnam, the historic top supplier, according to the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA). Pakistan's total rice exports are forecast to jump by 450,000 tons to 4.8 million tons, almost 30% higher than the prior year. Pakistan experienced broad-based economic growth across all key sectors in FY 21-22; manufacturing posted 9.8% growth, services 6.2% and agriculture 4.4%. The 4.4% growth in agriculture is particularly welcome; it helps reduce rural poverty. The country is expected to have yet another record year for agriculture in 2022-23 after heavy monsoon rains. Rice is an important food crop in Pakistan but wheat is the principal grain consumed domestically. Unfortunately, the same hot and dry planting conditions that delayed planting of the 2022 rice crop in Punjab and Sindh provinces have adversely affected Pakistan’s wheat production. This has forced the government to import wheat at a time of high prices amid the war in Ukraine, a major wheat exporter. The recent monsoon rains will help to kick-start the sowing of major Kharif (autumn) crops including rice, cotton, sugarcane and corn after about a month's delay. “There was 40% less water available for the Kharif season (during May-June 2022),” an official of the Ministry of National Food Security and Research said while talking to The Express Tribune on Saturday. Earlier in March this year, Pakistan's Federal Committee on Agriculture (FCA) had said “for the Kharif year 2022, the water availability in canals head will be 65.84 million acre feet (MAF) against last year’s 65.08 MAF”. Recent rains have helped fill up major water reservoirs across the country. About 150,000 cubic feet per second of water is being released from Pakistan's largest Tarbela dam which is more than the combined irrigation needs of the two provinces. It is also generating over 3,000 MW of electricity, according to media reports. “Cotton production is expected to improve to 9.5-10 million bales (one bale weighs 170 kg) in the wake of ongoing rainfall in cotton belts in Punjab and Sindh,” said Pakistan Central Cotton Committee Vice President Dr Muhammad Ali Talpur. “Cotton production will remain high, as farmers have improved crop management in the backdrop of higher prices in the domestic (and international) market.”Pakistan's agriculture output is the 10th largest in the world. The country produces large and growing quantities of cereals, meat, milk, fruits and vegetables. Currently, Pakistan produces about 38 million tons of cereals (mainly wheat, rice and corn), 17 million tons of fruits and vegetables, 70 million tons of sugarcane, 60 million tons of milk and 4.5 million tons of meat. Total value of the nation's agricultural output exceeds $50 billion. Improving agriculture inputs and modernizing value chains can help the farm sector become much more productive to serve both domestic and export markets. Pakistanis are eating more and healthier foods, according to the Economic Survey of Pakistan 2021-22. Per capita average daily calorie intake in Pakistan has jumped to 2,735 calories in FY 2021-22 from 2,457 calories in 2019-20. The biggest contributor to it is the per capita consumption of fresh fruits and vegetables which soared from 53.6 Kg to 68.3 Kg, less than half of the 144 Kg (400 grams/day) recommended by the World Health Organization. Healthy food helps cut disease burdens and reduces demand on the healthcare system. Under former Prime Minister Imran Khan's leadership, Pakistan succeeded in achieving these nutritional improvements in spite of surging global food prices amid the Covid19 pandemic.

Australians urged to work from home as COVID hospital cases surge -Australians have been urged to work from home and wear masks indoors as the number of people in hospital with COVID-19 nears record levels.The country is in the midst of a third wave of coronavirus, driven by the BA.4 and BA.5 Omicron subvariants, and earlier this monthbroadened access to second booster shots to deal with the surge in cases.Daily cases climbed to 50,248 on Tuesday, the highest in two months.Some 5,239 Australians are currently in hospital with COVID-19, just short of the record 5,390 recorded in January.“We need to do some things differently at least for a short period of time,” Australia’s Chief Medical Officer Paul Kelly told ABC Radio on Wednesday, as he predicted the number of people admitted to hospital will soon hit an all-time high.“We know that working from home is a very key component of stopping what we call macro spreading.”At a press conference later, however, Prime Minister Anthony Albanese said that working from home was a matter between companies and their employees and noted that it was simply not possible for some people.“Businesses will continue to make those decisions,” Albanese was quoted as saying by the Sydney Morning Herald. “They need to make them on the basis of safety. But also, for some people, we need to recognise that they can’t work from home.

Pope’s views on Ukraine war worry some in Canada - Pope Francis is touring Canada this week on a “pilgrimage of penitence” to account for the wrongs done to Indigenous children at the hands of the Catholic Church. But if Yaroslav Broda had his way, Francis would make amends for another church failing — its refusal to strongly condemn Russia for invading Ukraine.Broda, a leader of the Ukrainian community in Edmonton, said he found the pope’s comments about the war so far “disheartening.”Canada has the third-largest Ukrainian population of any country, trailing only Russia and Ukraine. Thousands of Ukrainians fled their home country in the early 20th century, settling on the Canadian prairies when the federal government offered free land to newcomers.Edmonton is now home to about 12 percent of an estimated 1.36 million people of Ukrainian descent who live in Canada, according to the most recently available federal data. That’s more than any other metropolitan area.Pope Francis’ visit to Canada is his first to a country with a significant Ukrainian population since the war began in February. The Ukrainian Canadian Congress (UCC), however, did not request an audience with the pope.“We think this visit has one focus. Yes, what’s happening in Ukraine is front of mind for us, but reconciliation is also very important,” said Broda, the UCC’s Edmonton chapter president, adding that the group is “trying to build relationships with Indigenous groups and work on our part of reconciliation.”The pope’s visit to Canada has been dubbed an “apology tour” by some. He traveled to a community south of Edmonton on Monday to deliver a historic apology to Indigenous survivors of residential schools run by the Catholic Church for more than a century from the 1880s until the 1990s. The schools were meant to wipe out Indigenous languages, traditions and customs — a system derided as “cultural genocide” by a high-profile Truth and Reconciliation Commission report in 2015.

MPs warn energy bills will push millions into unmanageable debt as UK inflation hits fresh 40-year high and European energy crisis soars - UK’s Members of Parliament said millions of people will be plunged into unmanageable dept this winter unless the government comes up with a solid plan to support those most affected by rising prices. Driven by rising energy and food prices, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in the UK rose for the ninth month in a row to a fresh 40-year high of 9.4% in the 12 months to June 2022. This is the highest rate of inflation since 1982 and up from 9.1% in May 2022.1 Rising prices for motor fuels and food made the largest upward contributions to the change in both the CPIH and CPI 12-month inflation rates between May and June 2022. The situation looks even direr as winter season 2022/23 prospects of inflation are rising up to 12%.“We still think inflation will rise to 12% in October and that interest rates will be raised from 1.25% to 3%, although it’s finely balanced whether they rise by 25bps or 50bps in August,” said Paul Dales, chief UK economist at Capital Economics. “This winter is going to be extremely difficult for family finances and it’s therefore critical that public funds are better targeted to those who need it the most,” said Labour MP Darren Jones. In a report focusing on how to ease energy costs now, while guarding against future crises, the business and energy select committee suggests, among other things, that the energy price cap should be replaced with a ‘social tariff.’ Germany – the leading economic power in Europe – is also severely affected by sanctions imposed on Russia this year as well as the entire European Union. As a result, EU energy ministers are in Brussels today in an effort to find an agreement to reduce natural gas demand ahead of winter. However, the proposal made by the European Commission to voluntarily reduce the usage of gas by 15% over the next 7 months across all members doesn’t sound right to many countries. Under the proposal, the voluntary target could become mandatory in an emergency. Another blow to European industry, economy, and hopes of normal winter came on July 25 when Russia’s Gazprom said it will drastically cut gas supplies again (down to 20%) via Nord Stream 1, starting at 04:00 UTC on July 27. The decision was made due to the ‘technical condition’ of one of the last two operating turbines. European officials are saying there is no technical reason to limit the gas, but Russia insists on blaming Western sanctions. While there’s still some time to avert this catastrophe Europe seems destined for, it doesn’t look like decisions are being made in that direction.